United States ';- j ;
Environmental Protection
Agency : ;
Ai,r And Radiation
(660tJX-V.V,; v
January i98
Health Risks From Low-Level
Environmental Exposure To
Radionuclides
Federal Guidance
Report No. 13 - Part 1
Interim Version
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Federal Guidance Report No. 13
Part I - Interim Version
HEALTH RISKS FROM LOW-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE
TO RADIONUCLIDES
Radionuclide-Specific Lifetime Radiogenic Cancer
Risk Coefficients for the U.S. Population, Based on
Age-Dependent Intake, Dosimetry, and Risk Models
Keith F. Eckerman
Richard W. Leggett
Christopher B. Nelson
Jerome S. Puskin
Allan C. B. Richardson
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831
Office of Radiation and Indoor Air
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC 20460
1998
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PREFACE
The Federal Radiation Council (FRC) was formed in 1959, through Executive Order 10831.
A decade later its functions were transferred to the Administrator of the newly formed
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as part of Reorganization Plan No. 3 of 1970. Under these
authorities it is the responsibility of the Administrator to "advise the President with respect to
radiation matters, directly or indirectly affecting health, including guidance for all Federal agencies
in the formulation of radiation standards and in the establishment and execution of programs of
cooperation with States." The purpose of this guidance is to ensure that the regulation of exposure
to ionizing radiation is adequately protective, reflects the best available scientific information, and
is carried out hi a consistent manner.
Since the mid-1980s EPA has issued a series of Federal guidance documents for the purpose
of providing the Federal agencies technical information to assist their implementation of radiation
protection programs. The first report in this series, Federal Guidance Report No. 10 (EPA, 1984a),
presented derived concentrations of radioactivity in air and water corresponding to the limiting
annual doses recommended for workers in 1960. That report was superseded in 1988 by Federal
Guidance Report No. 11 (EPA, 1988), which provided dose coefficients for internal exposure of
members of the general public and limiting values of radionuclide intake and air concentrations for
workers, based on updated biokinetic and dosimetric models. Federal Guidance Report No. 12
(EPA, 1993) tabulated dose coefficients for external exposure to radionuclides in air, water, and soil.
When final, this report is intended to promote consistency in assessments of the risks to
health from radiation by Federal agencies and others and to help ensure that such assessments are
based on sound scientific information. It is intended as the first of a set of documents, referred to
collectively as Federal Guidance Report No. 13, that will address risks to health from exposure to
specific radionuclides. These documents will make use of state-of-the-art methods and models for
estimating the risks to health from internal or external exposure. These methods and models take
into account, for the first time in a comprehensive compilation, the age and gender-specific aspects
of radiation risk. This interim version of Federal Guidance Report No. 13, Part I, provides
tabulations of risk estimates, or "risk coefficients", for cancer attributable to exposure to any of
approximately 100 important radionuclides through various environmental media. These risk
coefficients apply to populations that approximate the age, gender, and mortality experience
characterized by the 1989-91 U.S. decennial life tables. The tabulations in the final version of Part
I will extend the methodology of the interim version to the other radionuclides included in Federal
Guidance Reports 11 and 12. Subsequent parts of Federal Guidance Report No. 13 may extend the
in
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exposure pathways, and health endpoints addressed. As necessary, these publications will be
reissued to update the information provided. EPA has chosen to issue Part I of Federal Guidance
Report No. 13 as an interim report at this time in order to provide governmental agencies and other
interested parties an opportunity to become familiar with it and its supporting methodology and to
provide comments for the Agency's consideration before publishing the final version.
In this report, the risk coefficient for exposure to a given radionuclide through a given
environmental medium is expressed as the probability of radiogenic cancer mortality or morbidity
per unit activity inhaled or ingested, for internal exposure, or per unit time-integrated activity
concentration in air or soil, for external exposure. These risk coefficients may be applied to either
chronic or acute exposure to environmental radionuclides. That is, a risk coefficient may be
interpreted either as average risk per unit exposure for persons exposed throughout life to a constant
activity concentration of a radionuclide in an environmental medium, or as average risk per unit
exposure for persons acutely exposed to the radionuclide through the environmental medium, as long
as the exposure involved is properly characterized as low acute dose or low dose rate. In this report,
"low dose" and "low dose rate" are defined in terms of the range of applicability of the radiogenic
risk models applied, rather than as regulatory concepts.
The risk estimates tabulated in this report are intended mainly for prospective assessments
of estimated cancer risks from long-term exposure to radionuclides in environmental media. For
example, it is anticipated that this document will be used in such activities as preparation of
environmental impact statements and development of assessments in support of generic rule making
for control of radiation exposure. While it is recognized that these risk coefficients are likely also
to be used in retrospective analyses of radiation exposures of populations, it is emphasized that such
analyses should be limited to estimation of total or average risks in large populations. The
tabulations are not intended for application to specific individuals or to age or gender subgroups, for
example, children, and should not be used for that purpose. Also, these risk coefficients are based
on radiation risk models developed for application either to low acute doses or low dose rates. Thus,
these risk coefficients should not be applied to accident cases involving high doses and dose rates,
either in prospective or retrospective analyses. Finally, some risk assessment procedures are
established as a matter of policy, and additional steps may be needed before using these risk
coefficients. For example, EPA recommends that radiation risk assessments for sites on the National
Priorities List under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act
be performed using the Health Effects Assessment Summary Tables (HEAST), which are
periodically updated to reflect new information.
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Documents in EPA's Federal Guidance Report series provide reference values for assessing
both radiation dose and risk from exposure to radionuclides. Federal Guidance Report Nos. 11 and
12, which address radiation dose, are intended for use in determining conformance with the radiation
protection guidance to Federal agencies issued by the President. The present report does not replace
either of those documents or affect their use for radiation protection purposes, even though many of
the biokinetic and dosimetric models used here are updates of models used in Federal Guidance
Report No. 11. The dose coefficients in Federal Guidance Report Nos. 11 and 12 continue to be
recommended for determinations of compliance with dose-based regulations and, where applicable,
for use in dose assessments. Those reports will be updated in the future as warranted. Federal
Guidance Report 13 has a different purpose it is intended for use in assessing risks from
radionuclide exposure, in a variety of applications ranging from analyses of specific sites to the
general analyses that support a rule making. Although its use, especially by Federal agencies, is
encouraged to promote consistency in risk assessment, such use is, of course, discretionary.
This report would not have been possible without the contributions of the many investigators
who produced the building blocks that provided the basis for the results presented here. These
include: Jerome S. Puskin and Christopher B. Nelson, who assembled the models for age-dependent,
organ-specific cancer risks; Richard W. Leggett, Keith F. Eckerman and many other contributing
scientists who developed and compiled the age-specific biokinetic and dosimetric models published
by the International Commission on Radiological Protection; Robert Armstrong, who supplied pre-
publication values for the 1989-91U.S. decennial life tables; and Keith F. Eckerman and Richard W.
Leggett, who provided the basis for calculation of doses from internal and external exposure. Allan
C.B. Richardson initiated preparation of this, as well as Reports 10, 11, and 12, and provided
guidance on its broad outline. The major effort required to prepare the report itself was carried out
by Keith F. Eckerman, Richard W. Leggett, Christopher B. Nelson, Jerome S. Puskin, and Allan
C.B. Richardson. Technical review was contributed by William J. Bair, Bernd Kahn, Charles E.
Land, John R. Mauro, and Alan Phipps. Preparation of the report was funded by the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
Commission (NRC). Its technical content has been reviewed by these agencies.
We gratefully acknowledge the work of the authors, the agencies who contributed funding
for this work, and the helpful comments by technical reviewers of this interim version of the report.
We would appreciate receiving any comments by June 30, 1998, so that they may be taken into
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account in the final version, currently planned for publication in the fall of 1998. Comments should
be addressed to Allan C. B. Richardson, Associate Director for Radiation Guidance, Radiation
Protection Division (6602J), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC 20460.
Lawrence G. Weinstock, Acting Director
Office of Radiation and Indoor Air
VI
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CONTENTS
PREFACE iii
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION 1
Radionuclides and exposure scenarios addressed 2
Applicability to the current U.S. population 4
Computation of the risk coefficients for internal exposure 5
1. Lifetime risk per unit absorbed dose at each age 5
2. Absorbed dose rates as a function of time post acute intake at each age 6
3. Lifetime cancer risk per unit intake at each age 7
4. Lifetime cancer risk for chronic intake 7
5. Average lifetime cancer risk per unit activity intake 8
Computation of the risk coefficients for external exposure 8
How to apply a risk coefficient 9
Limitations on use of the risk coefficients 10
Uncertainties in the biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models 10
Software used to compute the risk coefficients 11
Organization of the report 11
CHAPTER 2. TABULATIONS OF RISK COEFFICIENTS 13
Risk coefficients for inhalation 13
Risk coefficients for ingestion 14
Ingestion of tap water 14
Ingestion of food 15
Risk coefficients for external exposure 15
Adjustments for current age and gender distributions in the U.S 16
CHAPTERS. EXPOSURE SCENARIOS 47
Characteristics of the exposed population 47
Growth of decay chain members 47
Inhalation of radionuclides 48
Intake of radionuclides in food 52
Intake of radionuclides in tap water 53
External exposure to radionuclides in air 53
External exposure to radionuclides in soil 53
CHAPTER 4. BIOKINETIC MODELS FOR RADIONUCLIDES 55
The respiratory tract 55
The gastrointestinal tract 57
Systemic biokinetic models 58
Treatment of decay chain members formed in the body 64
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Solution of the biokinetic models 66
Uncertainties in the biokinetic models 66
CHAPTER 5. DOSIMETRIC MODELS FOR INTERNAL EMITTERS 71
Age-dependent masses of source and target regions 71
Dosimetric quantities 74
Nuclear decay data , 75
Specific absorbed fractions for photons 75
Absorbed fractions for electrons 76
Absorbed fractions for alpha particles and recoil nuclei 77
Spontaneous fission 77
Computation of SE 78
Uncertainties in the internal dosimetric models 78
SEs for photons 78
SEs for beta particles and discrete electrons 79
SEs for alpha particles 80
Special dosimetric problems presented by walled organs 81
CHAPTER 6. DOSIMETRIC MODELS FOR EXTERNAL EXPOSURES 83
Interpretation of dose coefficients from Federal Guidance Report No. 12 83
Nuclear data files used 84
Radiations considered 85
Effects of indoor residence 86
Uncertainties in external dose models 86
Transport of radiation from the environmental source to humans 86
Effects of shielding during indoor residence 87
Effects of age and gender 88
CHAPTER?. RADIOGENIC CANCER RISK MODELS 91
Types of risk projection models 91
Epidemiological studies used in the development of risk models 93
Modification of epidemiological data for
application to low doses and dose rates 93
Relative biological effectiveness factors for alpha particles 94
Risk model coefficients for specific organs 94
Association of cancer type with dose location 98
Relation between cancer mortality and morbidity 99
Treatment of discontinuities in risk model coefficients 102
Uncertainties in risk models 102
Sampling variability 102
Diagnostic misclassification 103
Errors in dosimetry 103
Uncertainties in the shape of the dose-response curve 104
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Uncertainties in the RBE for alpha particles 106
Uncertainties in transporting risk estimates across populations 108
Uncertainties in age and time dependence of risk per unit dose 109
Uncertainties in site-specific cancer morbidity risk estimates 110
Computation of radionuclide risk coefficients 110
APPENDIX A. MODELS FOR MORTALITY RATES
FOR ALL CAUSES AND FOR SPECIFIC CANCERS A-l
APPENDIX B. ADDITIONAL DETAILS OF THE DOSIMETRIC MODELS B-l
Definitions of special source and target regions B-l
Age-dependent masses of source and target regions B-2
Absorbed fractions for radiosensitive tissues in bone B-2
APPENDIX C. AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE MODELS AND METHODS USED
TO CALCULATE RISK COEFFICIENTS FOR INTERNAL EXPOSURE .... C-l
Gastrointestinal tract model and;/} values C-l
Respiratory tract model C-2
Biokinetics of absorbed thorium C-4
Structure of the systemic biokinetic model for thorium C-4
Parameter values for the systemic model for thorium C-6
Predicted differences with age in systemic biokinetics of thorium C-8
Treatment of 232Th chain members produced in systemic tissues C-9
Comparison of updated and previous systemic models for thorium C-l 1
Conversion of activity to estimates of dose rates to tissues C-l 3
S£ values C-13
Use of SE values to calculate dose rates C-16
Conversion of dose rates to estimates of radiogenic cancers C-l 8
Comparison with risk estimates based on effective dose C-22
APPENDIX D. ADJUSTMENT OF RISK COEFFICIENTS FOR
SHORT-TERM EXPOSURE OF THE CURRENT U.S. POPULATION D-l
Computation of risk coefficients for the hypothetical current population D-l
Comparison of coefficients for the current and stationary populations D-4
APPENDIX E. SAMPLE CALCULATIONS E-l
GLOSSARY G-l
REFERENCES R-l
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TABLES
1.1 Radionuclides addressed in this report 3
2.1 Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for inhalation 17
2.2 Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for ingestion of tap water 27
2.3a Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for ingestion of food 33
2.3b Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for ingestion of iodine in food, based
on usage of cow's milk 39
2.4 Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for external exposure from environmental
media > 41
3.1 Age- and gender-specific usage rates of environmental media, for selected ages 49
4.1a Gastrointestinal absorption fractions (/j values) for ingestion of radionuclides 59
4.1b Gastrointestinal absorption fractions (/] values) for inhalation of radionuclides 60
4.2 Systemic biokinetic models used in this report 61
4.3 Semi-quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in selected biokinetic models of
the ICRP as central estimators for healthy adults 69
5.1 Source and target organs Used in internal dosimetry niethodology 72
7.1 Revised mortality risk model coefficients for cancers other than leukemia, based on
the EPA radiation risk methodology (EPA, 1994) 95
7.2 Revised mortality risk model coefficients for leukemia, based on the EPA radiation
risk methodology (EPA, 1994) 96
7.3 Age-averaged site^-specific cancer1 mortality risk estimates (cancer deaths per
person-Gy) from low-dose, low-LET uniform irradiation of the body 99
7.4 Dose regions associated with cancer types 100
7.5 Lethality data for cancers by site in adults 101
A. 1 Gender- and age-specific Values for the survival function, S(x), and the expected
remaining lifetime, °e(x)> used in this report A-2
B.I Age-specific masses (g) of source and target organs B-3
B.2 Absorbed fractions for alpha- and beta-emitters in bone (ICRP, 1979,1980) B-4
C.I Age-specific transfer coefficients (d'1) in the systemic biokinetic model for thorium
(ICRP, 1995a) C-7
C.2 Predictions of 50-y integrated activity of 232Th (nuclear transformations per Bq
injected), following injection into blood at age 100 d, 10 y, or 25 y C-9
C.3 Comparison of estimated 50-y integrated activities of 232Th and its decay chain
members, assuming (A) independent or (B) shared kinetics of decay chain
members, for the case of injection of 232Th into blood of an adult C-12
C.4 Comparison of ICRP's updated (ICRP, I995a) and previous (ICRP, 1979) models
as predictors of 50-y integrated activity after acute intake of 232Th by an adult C-15
C.5 Comparison of cancer mortality risk coefficients with risk estimates based on
effective dose, for ingestion (food) or inhalation of 232Th (Type M, 1 urn AMAD). . C-24
D.I Average daily usage of environmental media by the two hypothetical populations .. D-3
D.2 Comparison of risk coefficients for the two hypothetical populations D-5
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FIGURES
1.1 Components of the computation of risk coefficients 5
3.1 Gender-specific survival functions for the stationary population. 48
3.2 Age- and gender-specific usage rates used to derive risk coefficients for inhalation,
ingestion of tap water, ingestion of food (energy intake), and ingestion of milk 50
4.1 Structure of the ICRP's respiratory tract model (ICRP, 1994a) .. 56
4.2 Model of transit of material through the gastrointestinal tract (ICRP, 1979) 57
4.3 Structure of the ICRP's biokinetic model for zirconium (ICRP, 1993) 62
4.4 Structure of the ICRP's biokinetic model for iodine (ICRP, 1989) 62
4.5 Structure of the ICRP's biokinetic model for iron (ICRP, 1995a) 63
4.6 The ICRP's generic model structure for calcium-like elements (ICRP, 1993) 65
5.1 Illustration of phantoms used to derive age-dependent specific absorbed fractions
for photons 76
6.1 Estimated effects of age on effective dose for photons uniformly distributed in angle. 88
C.I Predictions of the ICRP's updated (ICRP, 1994a) and previous (ICRP, 1979) respiratory
tract models, for inhalation of 232Th in soluble, moderately soluble, or insoluble 1-um
particles (AMAD) .; C-3
C.2 The ICRP's generic framework for modeling the systemic biokinetics of a
class of bone-surface-seeking elements, including thorium C-5
C.3 Retention of 232Th on trabecular surfaces for three ages at injection, as predicted by
the updated model for thorium (ICRP, 1995a) C-8
C.4 Biokinetic model for thorium given in ICRP Publication 30 (1979) C-12
C.5 Comparison of predictions of ICRP's updated (ICRP, 1995a) and previous
(ICRP, 1979) systemic biokinetic models for thorium C-14
C.6 Age-specific lvalues (high-LET) for232Th C-15
C.7 Estimated weight of red marrow as a function of age C-16
C.8 Contributions of 232Th in Trabecular Bone Surface, Trabecular Bone Volume, and
Red Marrow to the high-LET dose rate to Red Marrow in the adult C-17
C.9 Estimated dose rate to Red Marrow following acute ingestion of 232Th, for three
ages at ingestion C-17
C. 10 Estimated dose rates to Red Marrow following acute inhalation of moderately
soluble 232Th, for three ages at inhalation ; C-17
C.I 1 Relative risk functions, T|(«, jc), for leukemia in males for three ages at irradiation .. C-19
C. 12 Age- and gender-specific mortality rates for leukemia, based on U.S. data for
1989-91 (NCHS, 1992,1993a, 1993b) C-19
C.I3 Gender-specific survival functions based on U.S. life tables for 1989-91
(NCHS, 1997) C-20
C.I4 Gender-specific lifetime risk coefficient (LRG) functions for radiogenic leukemia. . .. C-20
C. 15 Derived gender-specific risk ra (x,) of dying from leukemia due to ingestion of IBq
of 232Th in food at age x, C-21
C. 16 Derived gender-specific risk ra (x;) of dying from leukemia due to inhalation of
IBq of 232Th (Type M) at agex, C-21
XI
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C.17
C.I 8
D.I
Gender-weighted average lifetime risk coefficients for ingestion of 232Th in food,
using updated (ICRP, 1995a) and previous (ICRP, 1979) biokinetic models for
thorium C-22
Gender-weighted average lifetime risk coefficients for inhalation of moderately
soluble 232Th, using updated (ICRP, 1995a) and previous (ICRP, 1979) biokinetic
models for thorium C-22
Comparison of gender-specific age-distributions in 1996 U.S. population with
hypothetical stationary (ss, for steady-state) distributions based on 1989-91 U.S.
life table D-2
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CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
Since the mid-1980s, a series of Federal guidance documents have been issued by the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the purpose of providing Federal agencies with
technical information to assist their implementation of radiation protection programs. Previous
reports have dealt with numerical factors, called "dose factors" or "dose coefficients", for estimating
radiation dose due to exposure to radionuclides. The present report is the first of a set of documents,
referred to collectively as Federal Guidance Report No. 13, that will provide numerical factors,
called "risk coefficients", for estimating risks to health from exposure to radionuclides. Report No.
13 will apply state-of-the-art methods and models that take into account age and gender dependence
of intake, metabolism, dosimetry, radiogenic risk, and competing causes of death in estimating the
risks to health from internal or external exposure to radionuclides. This initial volume (Part I)
provides tabulations of risk coefficients for internal or external exposure to any of over 100
radionuclides through various environmental media. It is anticipated that Part II will address most
remaining radionuclides of environmental significance. Subsequent parts may further expand the
exposure pathways and health endpoints considered.
The risk coefficients developed in this report apply to an average member of the public, in
the sense that estimates of risk are averaged over the age and gender distributions of a hypothetical
closed "stationary" population whose survival functions and cancer mortality rates are based on
recent data for the U.S. Specifically, the total mortality rates in this population are defined by the
1989-91 U.S. decennial life table (NCHS, 1997) and cancer mortality rates are defined by U.S.
cancer mortality data for the same period (NCHS, 1992, 1993a, 1993b). This hypothetical
population is referred to as "stationary" because the gender-specific birth rates and survival functions
are assumed to remain invariant over time.
For a given radionuclide and exposure mode, both a "mortality risk coefficient" and a
"morbidity risk coefficient" are provided. A mortality risk coefficient is an estimate of the risk to
an average member of the U.S. population, per unit activity inhaled or ingested for internal
exposures or per unit time-integrated activity concentration in air or soil for external exposures, of
death from cancer as a result of intake of the radionuclide or external exposure to its emitted
radiations. A morbidity risk coefficient is a comparable estimate of the average total risk of
experiencing a radiogenic cancer, whether or not the cancer is fatal. The term "risk coefficient" with
no modifier should be interpreted throughout this report as "mortality or morbidity risk coefficient".
It is a common practice to estimate the cancer risk from internal or external exposure to a
radionuclide as the simple product of a "probability coefficient" and an estimated "effective dose"
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to a typical adult (see the Glossary for definitions). For example, a "nominal cancer fatality
probability coefficient" of 0.05 Sv"1 is given in ICRP Publication 60 (1991) for all cancer types
combined. This value is referred to as nominal because of the uncertainties inherent in radiation risk
estimates and because it is based on an idealized population receiving a uniform dose over the whole
body. It is pointed out by the ICRP (1991) that such a probability coefficient may be a less accurate
estimator in situations where the distribution of dose is nonunifbrm. There are also other situations
in which the product of a probability coefficient and the effective dose may not accurately represent
the risk implied by current biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models. For example, such an
estimate may understate the implied risk for intakes of radionuclides for which there is an apparently
multiplicative effect during childhood of elevated organ doses and elevated risk per unit dose. Such
an estimate may overstate the risk implied by current models in the case of intake of a long-lived,
tenaciously retained radionuclide, because much of the dose may be received during late adulthood
when there is a relatively high likelihood of dying from a competing cause before a radiogenic
cancer can be expressed. Finally, the weighting factors commonly used to calculate effective dose
do not reflect the most up-to-date knowledge of the distribution of risk among the organs and tissues
of the body.
In contrast to risk estimates based on the product of a nominal probability coefficient and
effective dose (for intake by the adult), the risk coefficients tabulated in this document take into
account the age dependence of the biological behavior and internal dosimetry of ingested or inhaled
radionuclides. Also, compared with risk estimates based on effective dose, the risk coefficients in
this document characterize more precisely the implications of age and gender dependence in
radiogenic risk models, U.S. cancer mortality rates, and competing risks from non-radiogenic causes
of death in the U.S. Finally, these risk coefficients take into account the age and gender dependence
in the usage of contaminated environmental media, which is generally not considered in risk
estimates based the simple product of a nominal probability coefficient and effective dose.
Radionuclides and exposure scenarios addressed
The radionuclides addressed are listed in Table 1.1. With the exceptions noted in the table,
risk coefficients are provided for the following modes of exposure to a given radionuclide: inhalation
of air, ingestion of food, ingestion of tap water, external exposure from submersion in air, external
exposure from the ground surface, and external exposure from soil contaminated to an infinite depth.
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Table 1.1. Radionuclides addressed in this report.
H-3
C-14
S-35
Ar-37*, 39*. 41*
Ca-45, 47
Sc-47
Fe-55, 59
Co-57, 58, 60
Ni-59, 63
Zn-65
Se-75, 79
Kr-74*, 76*, 77*, 79*, 81 m*. 81 *, 83m*, 85m*. 8,5*. 87*. 88*
Br-74*, 76*. 77*
Rb-87*, 88*
Sr-89, 90
Y-90
Zr-95
Nb-94, 95m, 95
Mo-99
Tc-95m, 95, 99m, 99
Ru-103,106
Rh-103m*, 106*
Ag-1 08m, 108*. 110m, 110*
Sb-124, 125, 126, 127
Te-125m, 127m, 127, 129m, 129, 131m, 132
1-125, 129, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135
Xe-120*, 121*, 122*. 123*, 125*. 127*. 129m*. 131m*, 133m*, 133*; 135m*. 135", 138*
Cs-134, 135, 136, 137, 138*
Ba-133, 137m*, 140
La-140
Ce-141, 144
Pr-144m*, 144*
TI-207*, 208*, 209*
Pb-210, 211*, 212, 214*
Bi-210, 211*, 212,214*
Po-210, 211*, 212*, 214*. 215*. 216*, 218*
Rn-218*. 219*, 220*. 222*
Fr-223*
Ra-223, 224, 226, 228
Ac-227, 228
Pa-231,233, 234m*, 234
Th-227, 228, 230, 231 , 232, 234
U-232, 233, 234, 235, 236, 238
Np-236a (T1/2, 1.15x105 y), 236b
Pu-236, 238, 239, 240, 241 , 242
Am-241,243
Cm-242, 243, 244
, 22.5 h), 237, 239
*Risk coefficients are provided only for external exposure scenarios.
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For internal exposure, attention has been restricted mainly to radionuclides addressed in the
ICRP's series of documents on age-dependent doses to the public from intake of radionuclides
(ICRP, 1989,1993,1995a, 1995b, 1996). However, risk coefficients for internal exposure are also
provided for some additional isotopes of the elements considered in that series, as well as for
radionuclides with half-lives of one hour or greater that occur in the decay chains of any of the
radionuclides considered in the internal exposure scenarios. For external exposure, risk coefficients
are provided for all radionuclides addressed in the internal exposure scenarios and all radionuclides
of potential dosimetric importance occurring in the decay chains of those radionuclides (regardless
of the radiological half-life), as well as for some important radioisotopes of noble gases and their
decay chain members.
For each of the internal exposure modes, the risk coefficient for a radionuclide includes the
contribution to dose from production of decay chain members in the body after intake of the parent
radionuclide, regardless of the half-lives of the decay chain members. For both internal and external
exposure, a risk coefficient for a given radionuclide is based on the assumption that this is the only
radionuclide present in the environmental medium; that is, doses due to decay chain members
produced in the environment prior to intake of, or external exposure to, the radionuclide are not
considered. However, a separate risk coefficient is provided for each decay chain member of
potential dosimetric significance. This enables the user to assess the risks from ingrowth of
radionuclides in the environment.
The risk coefficients tabulated in this report are applicable to either chronic or acute exposure
to a radionuclide. That is, a risk coefficient may be interpreted either as the average risk per unit
exposure to members of a population exposed throughout life to a constant concentration of a
radionuclide through an environmental medium, or as the average risk per unit exposure to members
of a population acutely exposed to the radionuclide through the environmental medium. For
purposes of computing the risk coefficients, it was assumed that the concentration of the radionuclide
in the environmental medium remains constant and that all persons in the population are exposed
to that environmental medium throughout their lifetimes.
Applicability to the current U.S. population
The risk coefficients are based on exposure of a hypothetical stationary population with
survival functions and cancer mortality rates similar to those of the current U.S. population, but with
steady-state gender and age distributions based on these survival functions and fixed gender-specific
birth rates. Due to uncertainty in the future composition of the U.S. population, the use of such a
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stationary population is appropriate for consideration of long-term, chronic exposures. Because the
gender-specific age distributions in the current U.S. population differ considerably from those of the
hypothetical stationary population, however, the question arises as to the applicability of these risk
coefficients to short-term exposures of the U.S. population that might occur in the near future. This
question is addressed in Appendix D, where the tabulated risk coefficients are compared with values
calculated for short-term exposure of a hypothetical population with the age and gender distributions
of the 1996 U.S. population. As is the case for the hypothetical stationary population, total mortality
rates in the hypothetical 1996 population during and after exposure are assumed to be those given
in the 1989-91 U.S. decennial life table, and cancer mortality rates are taken to be those given by
U.S. cancer mortality data for the same period. The comparison reveals only small differences in
risk coefficients for the two populations.
Computation of the risk coefficients for internal exposure
A schematic of the method of computation of a risk coefficient is shown in Fig. 1.1 for the
case of internal exposure to a radionuclide. The main steps in the computation are shown in the
numbered boxes in the figure and are
summarized below.
1. Lifetime risk per unit absorbed
dose at each age
For each of 14 cancer sites in
the body, radiation risk models are
used to calculate gender-specific
values for the lifetime risk per unit
absorbed dose received at each age.
The age- and gender-specific radiation
risk models are described in Chapter 7.
These models are taken from a recent
EPA report (EPA, 1994) that provides
a methodology for calculation of
radiogenic cancer risks based on a
critical review of data on the Japanese
f Cancer risk coefficients \
f from epidemiologic studies; 1
V e.g., A-bomb survivors J
Risk model coefficients
transported to U.S. population
1. Lifetime, risk per unit
absorbed dose at each age
f U.S. age- and gender-
I specific usage data for
V environmental medium
T_
U.S. vital statistics A
and cancer mortality data J
3. Lifetime risk per unit
activity intake at each age
4. Lifetime cancer risk for a
constant activity concentration
in environmental medium
5. Risk coefficient: Average
lifetime cancer risk
per unit activity intake
C&ge-specific biokinetic
md dosimetric methods
2. Absorbed dose rate as a
function of time following a
unit activity intake at each age
Fig. 1.1. Components of the computation of risk coefficients.
(The numbers identify the key steps described in the text.)
-------
atomic bomb survivors and other study groups and methods of transporting radiation risk estimates
across populations. Parameter values given in that EPA report have been modified in some cases
to reflect updated vital statistics and cancer mortality data for the U.S. and to achieve greater
consistency in the assumptions made in this report for different age groups and genders.
The cancer sites considered are esophagus, stomach, colon, liver, lung, bone, skin, breast,
ovary, bladder, kidney, thyroid, red marrow (leukemia), and residual (all remaining cancer sites
combined). An absolute risk model is applied to bone, skin, and thyroid; that is, it is assumed for
these sites that the radiogenic cancer risk is independent of the baseline cancer mortality rate, that
is, the cancer mortality rate for that site in an unexposed population. For the other cancer sites, a
relative risk model is used; that is, it is assumed that the likelihood of a radiogenic cancer is
proportional to its baseline cancer mortality rate. The baseline cancer mortality rates are calculated
from U.S. cancer mortality data for 1989-91 (NCHS, 1992,1993a, 1993b).
The computation of gender- and cancer site-specific values for the lifetime risk per unit
absorbed dose involves an integration over age, beginning at the age at which the dose is received,
of the product of the age-specific risk model coefficient (times the baseline mortality rate of the
cancer hi the case of a relative risk model) and the survival function. The survival function is used
to account for the possibility that the exposed person may die from a competing cause before a
radiogenic cancer is expressed. The computation is described in detail in Chapter 7.
The estimates of lifetime risk per unit absorbed dose are independent of the radionuclide and
exposure pathway. They are calculated only once and are used as input for the calculation of each
risk coefficient.
2. Absorbed dose rates as a function of time post acute intake at each age
Age-specific biokinetic models are used to calculate the time-dependent inventories of
activity hi various regions of the body following acute intake of a unit activity of the radionuclide.
For a given radionuclide and intake mode, this calculation is performed for each of six "basic" ages
at intake: infancy (100 days); 1, 5,10, and 15 years; and maturity (usually 20 years, but 25 years
in the biokinetic models for some elements). The biokinetic models used in this document are
described in Chapter 4. With a few exceptions described in that chapter, the systemic biokinetic
models and gastrointestinal uptake fractions are taken from the ICRP's recent series of documents
on age-specific doses to members of the public from intake of radionuclides (ICRP, 1989, 1993,
1995a, 1995b, 1996). The respiratory tract model is taken from Publication 66 of the ICRP (1994a),
-------
and the model for transit of material through the gastrointestinal tract is taken from Publication 30
of the ICRP (Part 1,1979).
Age-specific dosimetric models are used to convert the calculated time-dependent regional
activities in the body to absorbed dose rates (per unit intake) to radiosensitive tissues as a function
of age at intake and time after intake. Absorbed dose rates for intake ages intermediate to the six
basic ages at intake (infancy; 1,5,10, and 15 years; and maturity) are determined by interpolation.
The dosimetric models used in this document are the models used in the ICRP's series of documents
on age-specific doses to members of the public from intake of radionuclides (ICRP, 1989, 1993,
1995a, 1995b, 1996). These models are described in Chapter 5.
3. Lifetime cancer risk per unit intake at each age
For each cancer site, the gender-specific values of lifetime risk per unit absorbed dose
received at each age (derived in the first step) are used to convert the calculated absorbed dose rates
to lifetime cancer risks, for the case of acute intake of one unit of activity at each age xf. This
calculation involves integration over age of the product of the absorbed dose rate at age x for a unit
intake at age xh the lifetime risk per unit absorbed dose received at age x, and the value of the
survival function at age x divided by the value at age xt. The survival function is used to account for
the probability that a person exposed at age xf is still alive at age jc to receive the absorbed dose. It
is assumed that the radiation dose is sufficiently low that the survival function is not significantly
affected by the number of radiogenic cancer deaths at any age. The calculation is described in
Chapter 7.
4. Lifetime cancer risk for chronic intake
As indicated earlier, the risk coefficients in this document are applicable to either chronic or
acute exposures. However, for purposes of computing a risk coefficient, it is assumed that the
concentration of the radionuclide in the environmental medium remains constant and that all persons
in the population are exposed to that environmental medium throughout their lifetimes.
The usage of environmental media may vary considerably with age and gender, and such
variation is taken into account in the calculation of risk coefficients for the internal exposure
scenarios. The age- and gender-specific models of usage of environmental media (air, food, or tap
water) are described in Chapter 3. It is assumed that daily ingestion of a given radionuclide in food
is proportional to age- and gender-specific daily energy intake. For radioisotopes of iodine, alternate
-------
risk coefficients are calculated for food under the assumption that daily ingestion is proportional to
age- and gender-specific daily usage of cow's milk. The age- and gender-specific ventilation rates
applied here are reference values given by the ICRP, and age- and gender-specific usage rates for
tap water, food energy, and cow's milk are average values estimated from recent data for the U.S.
For each cancer site and each gender, the lifetime cancer risk for chronic exposure is obtained
by integration over age x of the product of the lifetime cancer risk per unit intake at age x and the
expected intake of the environmental medium at age x. The expected intake at a given age is the
product of the usage rate of the medium and the value of the survival function at that age.
5. Average lifetime cancer risk per unit activity intake
Because a risk coefficient is an expression of the radiogenic cancer risk per unit activity
intake, the calculated lifetime cancer risk from chronic intake of the environmental medium must
be divided by the expected lifetime intake. The expected lifetime intake is given by the integral over
age of the product of the usage rate and the survival function.
Therefore, in the calculation of a gender- and cancer site-specific risk coefficient, usage of
the environmental medium appears both in the numerator (see Step 4) and the denominator. This
makes the risk coefficient Independent of the concentration of the radionuclide in the medium and
of the population-averaged usage rate of the medium but does not diminish the importance of the
usage rate in the derivation of a risk coefficient. For example, the risk coefficient for a given
radionuclide in food may differ considerably from the coefficient for the same radionuclide in tap
water because the assumed age-specific patterns of consumption are substantially different for food
and tap water.
Except for the calculations of the time-dependent organ activities and absorbed dose rates,
each of the steps described above is performed separately for each gender and each cancer site. A
total risk coefficient is derived by first adding the risk estimates for the different cancer sites in each
gender and then calculating a weighted mean of the coefficients for males and females. The
weighted mean of coefficients for males and females involves the presumed gender ratio at birth, the
gender-specific risk per unit intake at each age, and the gender-specific survival function at each age.
Computation of the risk coefficients for external exposure
The computation of risk coefficients for external exposure scenarios is similar to that for
internal exposure scenarios but involves fewer steps because the absorbed dose rates are taken
8
-------
directly from Federal Guidance Report No. 12 (EPA, 1993). The methods and models used in that
report are summarized in Chapter 6. As in the internal exposure scenarios, it is assumed that the
concentration of the radionuclide in the environmental medium remains constant and that all persons
in the population are exposed to that environmental medium throughout their lifetimes.
The external dose rates used in the calculation were based on a reference adult male, standing
outside with no shielding (EPA, 1993). Although there is expected to be some variation with age
in organ dose rates from uniform external exposure (usually less than 30%), comprehensive
tabulations of age-specific organ dose rates due to external exposure are not yet available. In the
present document, the dose rates calculated for the adult male are applied to all ages and both
genders, and no adjustments are made to account for potential reduction in dose rates due to
shielding by buildings during time spent indoors.
How to apply a risk coefficient
The risk coefficients in this report may be used to assess per capita (population-averaged)
risk due to the acute exposure of a population or, equivalently, to assess the risk due to the chronic
lifetime exposure of an average individual to a constant environmental concentration. They also may
be used to assess the per capita lifetime risk in a population from a lifetime exposure to a time
varying environmental radionuclide exposure (or intake) rate, using the product of the risk
coefficient and the lifetime exposure (or intake) due to that time varying rate.
A risk coefficient, r, is specific to the radionuclide, the environmental medium, and the mode
of exposure through that medium. For a given exposure scenario, the computation of lifetime cancer
risk, R, associated with intake of, or external exposure to, a given radionuclide involves
multiplication of the applicable risk coefficient r by the per capita activity intake / or external
exposure X. Thus, R = r I for intake by inhalation or ingestion and R = r X for external exposure,
where X denotes the time-integrated activity concentration of the radionuclide in air, on the ground
surface, or within the soil, and /is the activity inhaled or ingested per capita.
For external exposure, estimation of the time-integrated activity concentration ^"requires
infbrmation on the (constant or time-dependent) concentration of the radionuclide hi the medium and
the length of the exposure period. For an internal exposure scenario, estimation of the per capita
activity intake /of the radionuclide requires the same information, plus an estimate of the average
usage rate of the medium by members of the population during the exposure period. The user may
apply the per capita usage rate of air, food, or tap water given in Chapter 3 (see the "combined
lifetime average" usage rates in Table 3.1) or, because the risk coefficients are independent of the
-------
usage rate of the medium, may apply an average usage rate better suited to the exposure scenario.
For example, if the exposure scenario involves acute inhalation of a radionuclide in a rapidly passing
cloud, the average inhalation rate hi the exposed population during the exposure period may differ
from the 24-h average rate given in Chapter 3. However, the assumptions described in Chapter 3
concerning relative age- and gender-specific usage of the environmental media are inherent in the
risk coefficients for internal exposure and hence cannot be changed by the user.
Appendix E provides sample calculations that illustrate how the tabulated risk coefficients
may be applied to different types of exposure.
Limitations on use of the risk coefficients
Analyses involving the risk coefficients tabulated in this report should be limited to
estimation of prospective risks hi hypothetical or large existing populations, or retrospective analyses
of risks to large actual populations. The tabulations are not intended for application to specific
individuals and should not be used for that purpose.
In contrast to situations involving representative population samples, the coefficients
tabulated hi this report may not be appropriate for assessing the risk to an average individual in an
age-specific cohort due to chronic exposure to an environmental concentration that varies
substantially over the life of the cohort. In such special cases, the time-varying environmental
concentration must be incorporated explicitly into the calculations described in Chapter 7. Such
applications are beyond the scope of this report.
The risk coefficients are based on radiation risk models developed for application either to
low doses, defined as acute absorbed doses less than 0.2 Gy, or to low dose rates, defined as dose
rates less than 0.1 mGy min'1 (EPA, 1994). Finally, the assumption is made that the absorbed dose
is sufficiently low that the survival function is not significantly affected by the number of radiogenic
cancer deaths at any age. Thus, these risk coefficients should be applied with care to cases involving
large cumulative risks, either hi prospective or retrospective analyses.
Uncertainties in the biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models
The sources and extent of uncertainties hi the biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk
models used to derive the risk coefficients are discussed in the relevant sections of this report. The
discussions of uncertainty are generally qualitative or semi-quantitative in nature and are consistent
with recent assessments by experts hi the various fields. Because there is not full consensus of
10
-------
opinion among scientists regarding the reliability of estimates of lifetime cancer risk from low-level
exposure to radiation, and because the error in such estimates may vary substantially from one
radionuclide to another and one exposure scenario to another, no attempt is made here to characterize
the overall uncertainty associated with any given risk coefficient.
Software used to compute the risk coefficients
All computations of dose and risk were performed using the DCAL (DOSE
CALCULATION) software (Eckerman et al., to be published). DCAL is a comprehensive
biokinetics-dose-risk computational system designed to serve current needs in radiation dosimetry
and risk analysis. It performs biokinetic and dosimetric calculations for acute intake of a
radionuclide by inhalation, ingestion, or injection into blood at a user-specified age. DCAL couples
the generated absorbed dose rates with radiation risk estimators and mortality data to predict
organ-specific risk of radiogenic cancer mortality or morbidity from intake of a radionuclide.
DCAL has been extensively tested and has been compared with several widely used solvers
for biokinetic models and systems of differential equations. DCAL was used by a task group of the
ICRP to derive or check the dose coefficients given in its series of documents on age-specific doses
to members of the public from intake of radionuclides (ICRP, 1989, 1993, 1995a, 1995b, 1996).
Organization of the report
Risk coefficients for cancer mortality and morbidity due to exposure to the radionuclides
listed in Table 1.1 are tabulated in Chapter 2. To facilitate comparisons as well as conversion to
other units, values typically are tabulated to three decimal places. No indication of uncertainty is
intended or should be inferred from this practice.
The assumptions and models used to derive the risk coefficients tabulated in Chapter 2 are
described in Chapters 3 through 7. The exposure scenarios, including assumptions concerning the
vital statistics of the exposed population and the age- and gender-specific usage rates of
environmental media by the population, are described in Chapter 3. Biokinetic models, dosimetric
models for internal exposure, dosimetric models for external exposure, and radiation risk models are
described in Chapters 4, 5, 6, and 7, respectively. The sources and extent of uncertainties in the
biokinetic, dosimetric, and radiation risk models are discussed in the chapters in which the respective
models are described.
11
-------
Some additional details concerning the models used in the calculations are given in
Appendices A and B. Appendix C provides a detailed illustration of the models and computational
steps involved in the derivation of a risk coefficient for ingestion or inhalation of a radionuclide. In
Appendix D, the tabulated risk coefficients are compared with values calculated for short-term
exposure of a hypothetical population with age and gender distributions based on the 1996 U.S.
population. Appendix E provides several sample calculations that illustrate how the tabulated risk
coefficients may be applied to different types of exposure. A glossary of terms is provided at the
end of the document.
12
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CHAPTER 2. TABULATIONS OF RISK COEFFICIENTS
The risk coefficients tabulated here are based on a hypothetical stationary population with
total mortality rates defined by the 1989-91 U.S. decennial life table (NCHS, 1997) and cancer
mortality rates defined by U.S. cancer mortality data for the same period (NCHS, 1992, 1993a,
1993b). These coefficients may be interpreted in terms of either acute or chronic exposure to
environmental radionuclides. That is, a risk coefficient may be interpreted as the risk per unit
exposure of a typical person exposed throughout life to a constant concentration of a radionuclide
in an environmental medium, or as the average risk per unit exposure to members of a stationary
population that experiences an acute exposure to that radionuclide in that environmental medium.
Risk coefficients are tabulated for the following modes of exposure:
1. inhalation of a radionuclide in air (Table 2.1);
2. ingestion of a radionuclide in tap water (Table 2.2);
3. ingestion of a radionuclide in food (Table 2.3a; an alternate set of risk coefficients for
radioisotopes of iodine in food is given in Table 2.3b);
4. external exposure to radiation from a radionuclide in air (Table 2.4);
5. external exposure to radiation from a radionuclide on the ground surface (Table 2.4);
6. external exposure to radiation from a radionuclide in soil, assuming contamination to an
infinite depth (Table 2.4).
A risk coefficient for a given radionuclide is based on the assumption that this is the only
radionuclide present in the environmental medium. In particular, ingrowth of chain members in the
environmental medium is not considered. For each radionuclide addressed, however, a separate risk
coefficient is provided for each subsequent member of the same chain that is of potential dosimetric
significance.
Risk coefficients for inhalation
Risk coefficients for inhalation of radionuclides in air are given in Table 2.1. These
coefficients are expressed as the risk of cancer mortality or morbidity per unit activity intake (Bq"1).
For cases in which one cancer type contributes heavily to the total cancer mortality, Table 2.1 also
lists the dominant cancer type and the percentage of the total cancer mortality represented by that
13
-------
cancer type. If no single cancer type represents more than 40% of the total cancer mortality, then
none of the cancer types is considered to be dominant.
The intake rate of a radionuclide in air is assumed to depend on age and gender. The age-
and gender-specific inhalation rates used in this report are given in Chapter 3, Table 3.1.
The form of the inhaled material is classified in terms of the rate of absorption from the lungs
to blood, using the classification scheme of ICRP Publication 66 (ICRP, 1994a). Type F, Type M,
and Type S represent fast, medium, and slow rates, respectively, of absorption of material inhaled
in particulate form. Material-specific deposition and absorption models are used for vapors (Type
V) and gases (Type G) (ICRP, 1995b). Although the ICRP recommends default absorption types
of most of the radionuclides considered in this document, the information underlying the selection
of an absorption type is often very limited and in many cases reflects occupational rather than
environmental experience. Due to the uncertainties in the form of a radionuclide likely to be inhaled
by members of the public, various plausible absorption types have been addressed in the derivation
of a risk coefficient for inhalation of a radionuclide. The scheme for selection of plausible
absorption types is described in Chapter 3.
It is assumed that airborne radioactivity is in particulate form, except that: tritium is in the
form of a vapor (HTO as Type V) or a gas (HT as Type G); carbon is in gaseous form (Type G) as
carbon monoxide (CO) or carbon dioxide (CO2); iodine is in the form of a vapor (Type V), a gas
(methyl iodide, CH3I, as Type G), or a particulate (Type F or Type M); and tellurium is in the form
of a vapor (Type V) or a particulate (Type F, Type M, or Type S).
Risk coefficients for inhalation of radionuclides in particulate form are based on an assumed
activity median aerodynamic diameter (AMAD) of 1 jam. This particle size is recommended by the
ICRP for consideration of environmental exposures in the absence of specific information about the
physical characteristics of the aerosol (ICRP, 1994a).
Risk coefficients for ingestion
Ingestion of tap water
Risk coefficients for ingestion of radionuclides in tap water are given in Table 2.2. These
risk coefficients are expressed as the risk of cancer mortality or morbidity per unit activity intake
(Bq"1). For cases hi which one cancer type contributes heavily to the total cancer mortality, Table
2.2 also lists the dominant cancer type and the percentage of the total cancer mortality represented
14
-------
by that cancer type. If no single cancer type represents more than 40% of the total cancer mortality,
then none of the cancer types is considered to be dominant.
The age- and gender-specific visage rates for tap water are given in Chapter 3, Table 3.1. Tap
water usage is defined as water drunk directly as a beverage and water added to foods and beverages
during preparation. It does not include water that is intrinsic in foods as purchased.
Ingestion of food
Risk coefficients for ingestion of radionuclides in food are given in Table 2.3a. These risk
coefficients are expressed as the risk of cancer mortality or morbidity per unit activity intake (Bq"1),
For eases in which one cancer type contributes heavily to the total cancer mortality, Table 2.3a also
lists the dominant cancer type and the percentage of the total cancer mortality represented by that
cancer type. If no single cancer type represents more than 40% of the total cancer mortality, then
none of the cancer types is considered to be dominant.
Food usage is defined as the total dietary intake, excluding tap water. The risk coefficients
for food in Table 2.3a are based on the assumption that the intake rate of the radionuclide is
proportional to food energy usage (kcal d"1). Age- and gender-specific values for daily usage of total
food energy are given in Chapter 3, Table 3.1.
The assessment of the intake of a radionuclide in food typically is based on its activity
concentration in food (for example, Bq kg"1) and an average usage rate (kg d"1). The relation
between food energy usage and food mass usage is discussed in Chapter 3.
Table 2.3b gives a second set of risk coefficients for radioisotopes of iodine in food, based
on the assumption that the intake of radioiodine is proportional to intake of cow's milk. Age- and
gender-specific values for the assumed daily intake of cow's milk are given in Chapter 3, Table 3.L
Risk coefficients for external exposure
Risk coefficients are provided in Table 2.4 for each of three external exposure scenarios:
external exposure from submersion in contaminated air, external exposure from contamination on
the ground surface, and external exposure from soil contaminated to an infinite depth. A risk
coefficient for a given radionuclide is expressed as the probability of radiogenic cancer mortality or
morbidity per unit time integrated activity concentration in air, on the ground surface, or in soil. The
coefficients for submersion in air are given in units of m3 Bq"1 s"1, those for exposure to radiation
from the ground surface are given in units of m2 Bq"1 s"1, and those for exposure to radiation from
15
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soil contaminated to an infinite depth are given in units of kg Bq"1 s"1. Because the distribution of
absorbed dose within the body is fairly uniform for most external exposures, the cancer type with
the highest contribution to the total risk is not shown in Table 2.4.
The risk coefficients in Table 2.4 are based on external dose rates tabulated in Federal
Guidance Report No. 12 (EPA, 1993). Those dose rates were calculated for a reference adult male,
standing outdoors with no shielding. Activity distributions in air, on the ground surface, or in soil
were assumed to be of an infinite extent. In this report, no adjustments are made to account for
potential differences with age and gender in the external doses received, potential reduction in dose
due to shielding by buildings during time spent indoors, or the finite nature of the activity
distribution in the environment.
Adjustments for current age and gender distributions in the U.S.
The risk coefficients tabulated in this chapter were developed for a stationary population with
gender and age distributions that would eventually occur in a closed population with male-to-female
birth ratios indicated by recent U.S. data and with time-invariant survival functions defined by the
1989-91 U.S. decennial life tables. Due to the uncertainty in the future composition of the U.S.
population, the use of a stationary population based on recent U.S. vital statistics is judged to be
appropriate for consideration of long-term, chronic exposures to the U.S. population. Because the
gender-specific age distributions hi the current U.S. population differ considerably from those of the
hypothetical stationary population, however, the question arises as to the applicability of these risk
coefficients to short-term exposures of the U.S. population that might occur in the near future. In
Appendix D, risk coefficients for the stationary population are compared with coefficients derived
for short-term exposure of a population with gender and age distributions based on the 1996 U.S.
population, but with the same survival functions and cancer mortality rates as the stationary
population. The comparisons show that the risk coefficients for the stationary population are
reasonably good approximations of the corresponding risk coefficients for short-term exposure of
the 1996 U.S. population and that, for a given exposure scenario, the ratio of risk coefficients for the
two populations varies little from one radionuclide to another. Scaling factors are provided in
Appendix D for conversion of risk coefficients for the stationary population to more precise risk
coefficients for a hypothetical short-term exposure to the 1996 U.S. population.
16
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Table 2.1. Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for inhalation.
Explanation of Entries
Risk coefficients for inhalation of radionuclides are expressed as the probability of radiogenic
cancer mortality or morbidity per unit intake, where the intake is averaged over all ages and both
genders. The form of an inhaled radionuclide is classified in terms of the rate of absorption from
the lungs to blood, using the classification scheme of ICRP Publication 66 (ICRP, 1994a). Type F,
Type M, and Type S represent a fast rate, a medium rate, and a slow rate, respectively, of absorption
of material inhaled in particulate form. It is assumed that airborne radioactivity is in particulate
form, except that: tritium is in the form of a vapor (HTO as Type V) or a gas (HT as Type G);
carbon is in gaseous form (Type G) as carbon monoxide (CO) or carbon dioxide (CO2); iodine is in
the form of a vapor (Type V), a gas (methyl iodide, CH3I, as Type G), or a particulate (Type F or
Type M); and tellurium is in the form of a vapor (Type V) or a particulate (Type F, Type M, or
Type S). For all particulate matter, an activity median aerodynamic diameter (AMAD) of 1 urn is
assumed. The/; values (gastrointestinal absorption fractions) shown are the values applied to the
adult and may differ from the values applied to infants and children (see Table 4.1b).
The cancer type that makes the largest contribution to cancer mortality resulting from intake
of a radionuclide is given in the column labeled "dominant cancer type", and its percentage
contribution to the total cancer mortality is given in the column labeled "% total mortality". For
example, the entry for 47Ca in relatively soluble form (Type F) indicates that colon cancer would
account for 53.9% of all cancer deaths attributable to this exposure. The entry "none" under
"dominant cancer type" means that no single cancer type accounts for more than 40% of the total
cancer mortality.
To facilitate application of the risk coefficients, including conversion to other units, the
coefficients are tabulated to three decimal places. No indication of uncertainty is intended or should
be inferred from this practice.
To express a risk coefficient in conventional units (nCi ), multiply by 3.7x10 Bq nCi"1.
To express a risk coefficient in terms of a constant activity concentration in air (Bq m"3), multiply
the coefficient by 2.75 *104 UA, where UA is the lifetime average inhalation rate (for example,
17.8 m3 d"1 in Table 3.1) and 2.75xl04 d is the average life span. Note that the relative age- and
gender-specific inhalation rates indicated in Table 3.1 are inherent in the risk coefficient.
17
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Table 2.1. Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for inhalation.
AHAD
Nuclide (pm) Type
Hydrogen
H-3 (HTO)
H-3 (HT)
Carbon
C-14 (CO)
C-14 (C02)
Sulphur
S-35
Calcium
Ca-45
Ca-47
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
V
G
G
G
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
1
1
1
1
8
1
1
3
1
1
3
1
1
Mortality
f, (Bq'1)
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
1
1
6
3
3
1
1
2
2
3
3
1
1
.04E-12
.04E-14
.14E-14
.68E-13
.93E-12
.25E-10
.63E-10
.68E-11
.35E-10
.22E-10
.44E-11
.73E-10
.96E-10
Morbidity
(Bq-1)
1
1
9
5
6
1
1
3
2
3
5
2
2
.52E-12
.52E-14
.09E-14
.39E-13
.28E-12
.36E-10
.77E-10
.23E-11
.54E-10
.47E-10
.37E-11
.13E-10
.40E-10
Dominant
cancer % total
type mortality
none
none
none
none
colon
lung
lung
1 eukemi a
lung
lung
colon
lung
lung
-
-
-
43
95
96
71
93
96
53
74
75
.8
.1
.0
.5
.0
.5
.9
.4
.7
Scandium
Sc-47
Iron
Fe-55
Fe-59
Cobalt
Co -57
Co-58
Co -60
Nickel
Ni-59
Ni-63
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
M
S
F
H
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
H
S
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
5
5
1
5
5
1
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
6
6
3
1
1
1
3
3
1
4
8
3
1
1
3
8
2
1
9
3
2
3
9
.09E-11
.74E-11
.30E-11
.81E-11
.59E-11
.53E-10
.08E-10
.48E-10
.25E-11
.75E-11
.74E-11
.12E-11
.34E-10
.81E-10
.16E-10
.02E-10
.32E-09
.05E-11
.73E-12
.16E-11
.52E-11
.67E-11
.34E-11
7
8
4
2
1
2
3
3
1
5
1
4
1
2
4
9
2
1
1
3
3
.51E-11
.25E-11
.OOE-11
.16E-11
.75E-11
.15E-10
.60E-10
.97E-10
.88E-11
.65E-11
.01E-10
.70E-11
.62E-10
.15E-10
.62E-10
.68E-10
.72E-09
.55E-11
.26E-11
.43E-11
.72E-11
4.43E-11
1
.01E-10
lung
lung
leukemia
leukemia
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
75
77
53
41
88
-
76
84
-
74
80
-
70
73
-
67
73
-
56
95
-
71
96
.3
.0
.6
.7
.5
.3
.7
.0
.0
.1
.4
.8
.8
.0
.2
.9
.1
18
-------
Table 2.1, continued
AMAD
Nuclide (/M)
Zinc
Zn-65 1.00
1.00
1.00
Selenium
Se-75 1.00
1.00
Se-79 1.00
1.00
Strontium
Sr-89 1.00
1.00
1.00
Sr-90 1.00
1.00
1.00
Yttrium
Y-90 1.00
1.00
1.00
Zirconium
Zr-95 1.00
1.00
1.00
Niobium
Nb-94 1.00
1.00
1.00
Nb-95m 1.00
1.00
1.00
Nb-95 1.00
1.00
1.00
Molybdenum
Mo-99 1.00
1.00
1.00
Technetium
Tc-95m 1.00
1.00
1.00
Tc-95 1.00
1.00
1.00
Type f.
F 5.0E-01
M l.OE-01
S l.OE-02
F 8.0E-01
M l.OE-01
F 8.0E-01
M l.OE-01
F 3.0E-01
M l.OE-01
S l.OE-02
F 3.0E-01
M l.OE-01
S l.OE-02
F l.OE-04
M l.OE-04
S l.OE-04
F 2.0E-03
M 2.0E-03
S 2.0E-03
F l.OE-02
M l.OE-02
S l.OE-02
F l.OE-02
M l.OE-02
S l.OE-02
F l.OE-02
M l.OE-02
S l.OE-02
F 8.0E-01
M l.OE-01
S l.OE-02
F 8.0E-01
M l.OE-01
S l.OE-02
F 8.0E-01
M l.OE-01
S l.OE-02
Mortality
(Bq-1)
1.41E-10
1.20E-10
1.66E-10
7.18E-11
8.90E-11
6.30E-11
2.25E-10
7.60E-11
5.52E-10
7.22E-10
1.08E-09
2.65E-09
1.08E-08
5.77E-11
1.48E-10
1.60E-10
1.33E-10
3.92E-10
5.06E-10
3.89E-10
8.66E-10
3.20E-09
1.47E-11
7.23E-11
8.13E-11
3.89E-11
1.26E-10
1.51E-10
1.44E-11
8.75E-11
9.80E-11
1.35E-11
7.51E-11
1.03E-10
2.97E-12
4.66E-12
4.91E-12
Dominant
Morbidity cancer % total
(Bq"1) type mortality
2.05E-10
1.57E-10
2.02E-10
1.02E-10
1.09E-10
8.99E-11
2.50E-10
1.08E-10
6.32E-10
8.17E-10
1.17E-09
2.84E-09
1.15E-08
9.65E-11
2.13E-10
2.27E-10
1.77E-10
4.47E-10
5.70E-10
5.42E-10
1.02E-09
3.64E-09
2.31E-11
8.84E-11
9.84E-11
5.54E-11
1.48E-10
1.74E-10
2.15E-11
1.16E-10
1.30E-10
2.16E-11
9.20E-11
1.24E-10
5:01E-12
7.10E-12
7.43E-12
none
lung
lung
none
lung
none
lung
colon
lung
lung
1 eukemi a
lung
lung
colon
colon
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
colon
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
colon
lung
lung
none
colon
colon
_
46.1
65.0
_
62.7
88.2
42.6
86.0
89.5
88.6
80.5
98.6
79.1
49.7
51.1
_
81.0
86.2
_
72.0
80.7
57.6
75.9
78.1
78.0
81.7
_
63.0
63.3
40.8
66.9
69.8
_
46.4
48.1
19
-------
Table 2.1, continued
Nuclide
AMAD
(/mi) Type
Mortality
f, (Bq'1)
Morbidity
(Bq-1)
Dominant
cancer % total
type mortality
Technetium, continued
Tc-99m
Tc-99
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
F
M
s
F
M
s
8
1
1
8
1
1
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
3
1
1
1
3
9
.62E-13
.20E-12
.29E-12
.86E-11
.49E-10
.67E-10
6
1
1
3
3
1
.90E-13
.54E-12
.64E-12
.14E-11
.81E-10
.03E-09
none
lung
lung
colon
lung
lung
-
65
66
52
94
98
.1
.4
.0
.9
.3
Ruthenium
Ru-103
Ru-106
Silver
Ag-108m
Ag-llOm
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
5
5
1
5
5
1
5
5
1
5
5
1
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
3
2
2
6
2
5
4
5
2
3
6
1
.28E-11
.12E-10
.59E-10
.13E-10
.42E-09
.56E-09
.09E-10
.82E-10
.42E-09
.90E-10
.22E-10
.03E-09
5
2
2
9
2
6
5
7
2
5
7
1
.12E-11
.41E-10
.90E-10
.41E-10
.77E-09
.02E-09
.68E-10
.21E-10
.82E-09
.47E-10
.65E-10
.22E-09
colon
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
40
86
88
-
85
95
-
56
74
-
60
72
.2
.4
.7
.9
.6
.5
.3
.9
.0
Antimony
Sb-124
Sb-125
Sb-126
Sb-127
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-02
8
5
7
7
3
9
5
2
2
3
1
1
.55E-11
.65E-10
.54E-10
.52E-11
.99E-10
.74E-10
.90E-11
.51E-10
.85E-10
.50E-11
.60E-10
.77E-10
1
6
8
1
4
1
9
3
3
5
2
2
.30E-10
.58E-10
.65E-10
.04E-10
.49E-10
.08E-09
.26E-11
.10E-10
.49E-10
.83E-11
.03E-10
.23E-10
colon
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
colon
lung
lung
colon
lung
lung
45
81
84
-
84
88
50
70
73
72
69
72
.4
.1
.3
.7
.6
.7
.5
.1
.0
.8
.0
Tellurium
Te-125m
Te-127m
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
V
F
M
S
V
F
M
S
3
3
1
1
3
3
1
1
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
6
2
2
3
2
8
6
8
.89E-11
.54E-11
.88E-10
.61E-10
.43E-10
.65E-11
.34E-10
.60E-10
1
3
.02E-10
.87E-11
3.16E-10
3
3
1
6
9
.92E-10
.28E-10
.20E-10
.97E-10
.34E-10
leukemia
leukemia
lung
lung
1 eukemi a
1 eukemi a
lung
lung
50
45
93
95
70
.9
.5
.4
.3
.1
64.9
91
95
.7
.6
20
-------
Table 2.1, continued
Nuclide
AMAD
(/Jin)
Type
fi
Mortality
(Bq'1)
Morbidity
(Bq'1)
Dominant
cancer % total
type mortality
Tellurium, continued
Te-127
Te-129m
Te-129
Te-131m
Te-132
Iodine
1-125
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
V
F
M
S
V
F
M
S
V
F
M
S
V
F
M
S
V
F
M
S
V
(CH3I)G
1-129
1.00
1.00
F
M
V
(CH3I)G
1-131
1.00
1.00
F
M
V
(CH3I)G
1-132
1.00
1.00
F
M
V
(CH3I)G
1-133
1.00
1.00
F
M
V
(CH3I)G
1-134
1.00
1.00
F
M
V
(CH3I)G
1.00
1.00
F
M
3
3
1
1
3
3
1
1
3
3
1
1
3
3
1
1
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE-01
6.
2.
1.
1.
2.
9.
5.
7.
2.
7.
2.
2.
5.
2.
7.
8.
1.
6.
1.
1.
7.
6.
2.
2.
4.
3.
1.
2.
1.
1.
5.
1.
1.
3.
2.
6.
5.
3.
1.
4.
7.
1.
1.
2.
01E-12
99E-12
24E-11
37E-11
29E-10
13E-11
83E-10
15E-10
52E-12
77E-13
26E-12
43E-12
52E-11
52E-11
77E-11
56E-11
40E-10
08E-11
74E-10
91E-10
75E-11
03E-11
97E-11
91E-11
42E-10
43E-10
68E-10
60E-10
48E-10
10E-10
55E-11
29E-10
12E-11
88E-12
46E-12
10E-12
46E-11
76E-11
93E-11
02E-11
41E-12
38E-12
15E-12
47E-12
9
5
1
1
3
1
6
8
3
1
2
2
2
9
1
1
5
2
2
2
7
5
2
8
4
3
1
7
1
1
5
2
3
2
1
8
4
3
1
7
1
5
2
3
.25E-12
.09E-12
.65E-11
.83E-11
.66E-10
.50E-10
.72E-10
.HE -10
.07E-12
.06E-12
.69E-12
.88E-12
.59E-10
.95E-11
.14E-10
.13E-10
.78E-10
.19E-10
.52E-10
.54E-10
.48E-10
.83E-10
.87E-10
.71E-11
.32E-09
.36E-09
.64E-09
.64E-10
.36E-09
.06E-09
.27E-10
.20E-10
.12E-11
.09E-11
.01E-11
.72E-12
.38E-10
.41E-10
.69E-10
.48E-11
.19E-11
.41E-12
.77E-12
.12E-12
colon
colon
lung
lung
leukemia
leukemia
lung
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
colon
lung
lung
none
colon
lung
lung
thyroid
thyroid
thyroid
lung
thyroid
thyroid
thyroid
lung
thyroid
thyroid
thyroid
lung
lung
thyroid
none
lung
thyroid
thyroid
thyroid
lung
lung
none
none
lunq
46.
73.
62.
62.
48.
40.
86.
88.
67.
-
67.
68.
-
49.
61.
63.
46.
60.
62.
96.
96.
95.
63.
97.
97.
97.
74.
90.
95.
94.
76.
54.
44.
-
51.
77.
88.
85.
46.
73.
-
56.
0
1
0
0
7
3
0
9
5
2
3
1
5
1
4
4
1
0
1
9
4
3
8
7
9
8
0
0
8
8
9
0
2
5
2
7
7
8
21
-------
Table 2.1, continued
Nuclide
AMAD
(//m)
Type
fi
Mortality
(Bq-1)
Morbidity
(Bq'1)
Dominant
cancer % total
type mortality
Iodine, continued
1-135
V
(CH3I)G
Cesium
Cs-134
Cs-135
Cs-136
Cs-137
Barium
Ba-133
Ba-140
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
F
M
S
F
M
S
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
1.
1.
5.
1.
3.
7.
3.
2.
6.
2.
2.
7.
1.
2.
7.
1.
4.
5.
93E-11
01E-11
57E-12
47E-11
05E-10
05E-10
40E-11
58E-10
39E-11
12E-10
19E-10
81E-10
23E-10
67E-10
74E-10
02E-10
61E-10
30E-10
9
7
3
2
4
8
5
2
9
2
3
8
1
3
8
1
5
6
.85E-11
.42E-11
.63E-11
.38E-11
.45E-10
.36E-10
.03E-11
.82E-10
.44E-11
.54E-10
.21E-10
.91E-10
.69E-10
.14E-10
.78E-10
.70E-10
.48E-10
.20E-10
thyroid
thyroid
thyroid
lung
none
lung
none
lung
none
lung
none
lung
none
lung
lung
colon
lung
lung
43.
67.
59.
47.
73.
93.
-
76.
-
83.
-
70.
81.
74.
79.
82.
9
9
0
2
4
2
1
7
7
4
8
9
9
Lanthanum
La -140
Cerium
Ce-141
Ce-144
Lead
Pb-210
Pb-212
Bismuth
Bi-210
Bi-212
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
H
S
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
1
1
2
1
1
5
5
5
5
5
5
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
3.
8.
9.
4.
2.
3.
1.
2.
4.
1.
6.
4.
3.
1.
1.
5.
8.
1.
3.
1.
2.
67E-11
98E-11
61E-11
93E-11
76E-10
30E-10
95E-09
65E-09
49E-09
82E-08
84E-08
06E-07
84E-10
48E-08
64E-08
85E-11
10E-09
16E-08
75E-10
99E-09
17E-09
5
1
1
6
3
3
2
2
4
2
7
4
5
1
1
9
8
1
4
2
2
.83E-11
.29E-10
.37E-10
.41E-11
.07E-10
.64E-10
.26E-09
.96E-09
.87E-09
.47E-08
.48E-08
.28E-07
.43E-10
.56E-08
.73E-08
.92E-11
.56E-09
.23E-08
.10E-10
.10E-09
.29E-09
colon
colon
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
colon
lung
lung
lung
lung
lung
60.
46.
47.
-
89.
92.
-
73.
95.
-
87.
99.
-
99.
99.
60.
99.
99.
92.
99.
99.
5
6
8
8
8
3
3
9
7
3
5
3
4
7
0
7
9
22
-------
Table 2.1, continued
Nuclide
AMAD
(A/m)
Type
fi
Mortality
(Bq-1)
Morbidity
(Bq-1)
Dominant
cancer % total
type mortality
Polonium
Po-210
Radium
Ra-223
Ra-224
Ra-226
Ra-228
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
1
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-02
1
2
3
3
6
7
2
2
2
5
2
7
2
1
1
.97E-08
.76E-07
.71E-07
.91E-09
.42E-07
.50E-07
.60E-09
.56E-07
.90E-07
.90E-09
.93E-07
.23E-07
.34E-08
.26E-07
.12E-06
2
2
3
5
6
7
3
2
3
8
3
7
3
1
1
.69E-08
.93E-07
.91E-07
.40E-09
.76E-07
.90E-07
.61E-09
.70E-07
.06E-07
.31E-09
.09E-07
.61E-07
.28E-08
.40E-07
.18E-06
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
97.
99.
99.
99.
-
99.
99.
99.
99.
82.
99.
8
9
8
9
7
8
2
9
7
4
Actinium
Ac -227
Ac -228
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
F
M
S
F
M
S
5
5
5
5
5
5
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
3
2
3
3
8
1
.32E-06
.35E-06
.88E-06
.41E-10
.56E-10
.33E-09
4
2
4
4
9
1
.17E-06
.72E-06
.HE -06
.09E-10
.22E-10
.41E-09
liver
lung
lung
liver
lung
lung
43.
48.
96.
58.
85.
98.
3
5
9
5
9
9
Protactinium
Pa -231
Pa -233
Pa-234
Thorium
Th-227
Th-228
Th-230
Th-231
Th-232
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
M
S
M
S
M
S
M
S
M
S
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
2
1
1
5
2
3
7
2
3
7
9
2
3
5
7
2
3
5
1
.31E-06
.19E-06
.19E-06
.57E-11
.92E-10
.45E-10
.80E-12
.80E-11
.02E-11
.23E-07
.OOE-07
.03E-06
.40E-06
.28E-07
.23E-07
.95E-11
.23E-11
.18E-07
.10E-06
3
1
1
7
3
3
1
3
3
7
9
2
3
6
7
3
4
6
1
.18E-06
.53E-06
.29E-06
.32E-11
.28E-10
.84E-10
.25E-11
.67E-11
.94E-11
.62E-07
.48E-07
.18E-06
.58E-06
.36E-07
.70E-07
.78E-11
.10E-11
.45E-07
.17E-06
bone
none
lung
leukemia
lung
lung
colon
lung
lung
lung
lung
lung
lung
lung
lung
lung
lung
lung
lung
51.
91.
47.
88.
91.
61.
61.
62.
99.
100.
93.
99.
54.
96.
69.
70.
46.
97.
8
4
3
3
3
7
5
9
7
0
5
8
9
4
3
9
8
0
23
-------
Table 2.1, continued
AHAD Mortality
Nuclide (fm) Type f, (Bq'1)
Morbidity
(Bq'1)
Dominant
cancer
type
% total
mortality
Thorium, continued
Th-234 1.00
1.00
Uranium
U-232 1.00
1.00
1.00
U-233 1.00
1.00
1.00
U-234 1.00
1.00
1.00
U-235 1.00
1.00
1.00
U-236 1.00
1.00
1.00
U-238 1.00
1.00
1.00
Neptunium
Np-236af1.00
1.00
1.00
Np-236b*1.00
1.00
1.00
Np-237 1.00
1.00
1.00
Np-239 1.00
1.00
1.00
Plutonium
Pu-236 1.00
1.00
1.00
Pu-238 1.00
1.00
1.00
M 5.0E-04
S 5.0E-04
F 2.0E-02
M 2.0E-02
S 2.0E-03
F 2.0E-02
M 2.0E-02
S 2.0E-03
F 2.0E-02
M 2.0E-02
S 2.0E-03
F 2.0E-02
M 2.0E-02
S 2.0E-03
F 2.0E-02
M 2.0E-02
S 2.0E-03
F 2.0E-02
M 2.0E-02
S 2.0E-03
F 5.0E-04
M 5.0E-04
S 5.0E-04
F 5.0E-04
M 5.0E-04
S 5.0E-04
F 5.0E-04
M 5.0E-04
S 5.0E-04
F 5.0E-04
M 5.0E-04
S 5.0E-04
F 5.0E-04
M 5.0E-04
S l.OE-05
F 5.0E-04
M 5.0E-04
S l.OE-05
6.06E-10
7.11E-10
7.11E-08
4.86E-07
2.37E-06
1.23E-08
2.96E-07
7.27E-07
1.20E-08
2.90E-07
7.14E-07
1.12E-08
2.57E-07
6.42E-07
1.13E-08
2.68E-07
6.63E-07
1.09E-08
2.38E-07
6.07E-07
4.61E-08
1.97E-08
3.06E-08
7.71E-11
1.97E-10
3.28E-10
3.48E-07
4.18E-07
7.32E-07
1.48E-11
8.75E-11
9.66E-11
4.92E-07
5.60E-07
7.56E-07
1.19E-06
8.04E-07
9.06E-07
* Np-236 isomer with half-life of
* Np-236 isomer with half-life of
7.16E-10
8.31E-10
9.96E-08
5.26E-07
2.50E-06
1.74E-08
3.13E-07
7.65E-07
1.70E-08
3.08E-07
7.51E-07
1.59E-08
2.73E-07
6.77E-07
1.61E-08
2.83E-07
6.98E-07
1.54E-08
2.52E-07
6.39E-07
6.33E-08
2.64E-08
3.30E-08
1.04E-10
2.18E-10
3.49E-10
4.72E-07
4.79E-07
7.75E-07
2.44E-11
1.08E-10
1.18E-10
5.91E-07
6.16E-07
7.99E-07
1.41E-06
9.07E-07
9.60E-07
l.lBxlO5 y.
22.5 h.
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
bone
bone
lung
none
lung
lung
bone
lung
lung
colon
lung
lung
liver
lung
lung
liver
lung
lung
80.0
84.7
-
92.3
99.5
-
98.6
99.9
-
98.6
99.9
-
98.5
99.9
-
98.6
99.9
-
98.4
99.9
46.6
42.5
92.3
-
84.6
97.9
44.4
70.3
98.1
70.5
75.2
76.7
59.5
69.1
97.9
62.6
46.4
95.0
24
-------
Table 2.1, continued
Nuclide
AMAD
(//m) Type
Mortality
f, (Bq-1)
Plutonium, continued
Pu-239
Pu-240
Pu-241
Pu-242
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
F
M
s
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
5.0E-04
5
1
5
5
1
5
5
1
5
5
1
.OE-04
.OE-05
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-05
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-05
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-05
1.
7.
8.
1.
7.
8.
1.
7.
3.
1.
7.
7.
26E-06
94E-07
45E-07
26E-06
95E-07
47E-07
98E-08
67E-09
51E-09
19E-06
46E-07
88E-07
Morbidity
(Bq-1)
1,
.49E-06
8.99E-07
8.96E-07
1.50E-06
9.00E-07
8.98E-07
2
9
3
1
8
8
.34E-08
.02E-09
.82E-09
.42E-06
.46E-07
.36E-07
Dominant
cancer
type
liver
lung
lung
liver
lung
lung
liver
liver
lung
liver
lung
lung
% total
mortality
62.9
42.4
94.2
62
42
94
65
64
73
62
41
94
.9
.4
.2
.2
.4
.7
.9
.7
.1
Americium
Am- 241
Am -243
Curium
Cm -242
Cm-243
Cm -244
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
F
M
S
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
7.
6.
9.
7.
6.
8.
5.
98E-07
59E-07
04E-07
88E-07
33E-07
58E-07
77E-08
3.84E-07
5.15E-07
6.50E-07
6.43E-07
9.38E-07
5.68E-07
6.10E-07
9.09E-07
1
7
9
1
7
9
6
4
5
8
7
9
7
6
9
.02E-06
.60E-07
.58E-07
.OOE-06
.31E-07
.HE -07
.80E-08
.07E-07
.42E-07
.18E-07
.27E-07
.93E-07
.HE -07
.84E-07
.61E-07
none
lung
lung
none
lung
lung
liver
lung
lung
liver
lung
lung
liver
lung
lung
-
56
96
-
55
96
63
95
99
42
63
97
44
66
.3
.5
.0
.3
.5
.9
.9
.6
.5
.4
.4
.4
97.8
25
-------
-------
Table 2.2 Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for ingestion of tap water.
Explanation of Entries
Risk coefficients for ingestion of radionuclides in tap water are expressed as the probability
of radiogenic cancer mortality or morbidity per unit intake, where the intake is averaged over all
ages and both genders. With two exceptions, the risk coefficient for ingestion of a radionuclide in
tap water applies to all forms of the radionuclide. For 3H, separate risk coefficients are given for
tritiated water (HTO) and organically bound tritium (OBT), for which different biokinetic models
are recommended by the ICRP (1989). Similarly, for 35S, separate risk coefficients are given for
inorganic sulfur and organically bound sulfur (I-S and OBS, respectively), for which different
biokinetic models also are recommended (ICRP, 1993).
The// values (gastrointestinal absorption fractions) shown are the values applied to the adult
and may differ from the values applied to infants and children (see Table 4.la).
The cancer type that makes the largest contribution to cancer mortality resulting from intake
of a radionuclide is given in the column labeled "dominant cancer type", and its percentage
contribution to the total cancer mortality is given in the column labeled "% total mortality". For
example, the entry for ingestion of 47Ca indicates that colon cancer would account for 81.3% of all
cancer deaths attributable to this exposure. The entry "none" under "dominant cancer type" means
that no single cancer type accounts for more than 40% of the total cancer mortality.
To facilitate application of the risk coefficients, including conversion to other units, the
coefficients are tabulated to three decimal places. No indication of uncertainty is intended or should
be inferred from this practice.
To express a risk coefficient in conventional units (uCi"1), multiply by 3.7xl04 Bq lo.Ci"1.
To express a risk coefficient hi terms of a constant activity concentration in tap water (Bq L"1),
multiply the coefficient by 2.75xl04 Uw, where Uwis the lifetime average rate of ingestion of tap
water (for example, 1.11 L d"1 in Table 3.1) and 2.75xl04 d is the average life span. Note that
the relative age- and gender-specific ingestion rates of tap water indicated in Table 3.1 are
inherent in the risk coefficient.
27
-------
Table 2.2. Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for
ingestion of tap water.
Nuclide
Hydrogen
H-3(HTO)
H-3COBT)
Carbon
C-14
Sulfur
S-35(I-S)
S-35COBS)
Calcium
Ca-45
Ca-47
Scandium
Sc-47
Iron
Fe-55
Fe-59
Cobalt
Co -57
Co -58
Co -60
Nickel
Ni-59
Ni-63
Zinc
Zn-65
Selenium
Se-75
Se-79
Strontium
Sr-89
Sr-90
Yttrium
Y-90
Zirconium
Zr-95
Niobium
Nb-94
Nb-95m
Nb-95
Mortality
fi (Bq'1)
1
1
1
1
1
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-04
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
5.0E-02
5.0E-02
5. OE-01
8. OE-01
8. OE-01
3. OE-01
3. OE-01
l.OE-04
l.OE-02
l.OE-02
l.OE-02
l.OE-02
9
2
2
8
4
4
1
5
1
1
.44E-13
.09E-12
.89E-11
.87E-12
.99E-11
.74E-11
.19E-10
.24E-11
.81E-11
.36E-10
1.70E-11
4.85E-11
2.75E-10
4.44E-12
1.08E-11
2.16E-10
1.56E-10
1.38E-10
2.
1.
2.
7.
1.
5.
3.
10E-10
34E-09
70E-10
09E-11
22E-10
49E-11
83E-11
Morbidity
(Bq-1)
1
3
4
1
7
6
2
9
2
2
.37E-12
.03E-12
.20E-11
.39E-11
.36E-11
.68E-11
.04E-10
.44E-11
.33E-11
.13E-10
2.81E-11
7.97E-11
4.25E-10
7.41E-12
1.81E-11
3.15E-10
2.20E-10
1.97E-10
3.47E-10
1.
4.
1.
2.
9.
6.
51E-09
88E-10
24E-10
10E-10
88E-11
64E-11
Domi nant
cancer % total
type mortality
none
none
none
none
none
leukemia
colon
colon
leukemia
colon
colon
colon
none
colon
colon
none
none
none
colon
leukemia
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
_
_
_
_
_
47
81
97
46
50
62
60
_
.1
.3
.2
.8
.0
.2
.5
66.1
66.6
_
_
75.2
82.5
98.3
85.
80.
97.
82.
8
6
2
7
Molybdenum
Mo -99
1.
OE+00
3.
12E-11
4.
33E-11
none
_
Technetium
Tc-95m
Tc-95
5.
5.
OE-01
OE-01
2.
9.
96E-11
24E-12
4.
1.
87E-11
56E-11
colon
colon
56.
58.
3
6
28
-------
Table 2.2, continued
Nuclide
Technetium,
Tc-99m
Tc-99
5.
5.
fi
Mortality
(Bq'1)
Morbidity
(Bq-1)
Dominant
cancer % total
type mortality
continued
OE-01
OE-01
1.
4.
22E-12
28E-11
2.15E-12
7.44E-11
colon
colon
63.
72.
5
2
Ruthenium
Ru-103
Ru-106
Silver
Ag-108m
Ag-llOm
Antimony
Sb-124
Sb-125
Sb-126
Sb-127
Tellurium
Te-125m
Te-127m
Te-127
Te-129m
Te-129
Te-131m
Te-132
Iodine
1-125
1-129
1-131
1-132
1-133
1-134
1-135
Cesium
Cs-134
Cs-135
Cs-136
Cs-137
Barium
Ba-133
Ba-140
5.
5.
5.
5.
1.
1.
1.
1.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
3.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
OE-02
OE-02
OE-02
OE-02
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE+00
OE+00
OE+00
OE+00
OE+00
OE+00
l.OE+00
l.OE+00
l.OE+00
l.OE+00
l.OE+00
2. OE-01
2. OE-01
5.
6.
1.
1.
2.
7.
1.
1.
5.
1.
1.
2.
3.
9.
1.
7.
88E-11
45E-10
42E-10
68E-10
OOE-10
27E-11
72E-10
52E-10
42E-11
51E-10
53E-11
39E-10
211-12
04E-11
94E-10
14E-11
4.07E-10
1.31E-10
6.87E-12
4.63E-11
3.68E-12
1.39E-11
7.91E-10
8.72E-11
1.60E-10
5.66E-10
1.27E-10
2.30E-10
1.04E-10
1.
,14E-09
2.20E-10
2.67E-10
3.48E-10
1,
.18E-10
3. OOE-10
2.72E-10
8.99E-11
2.33E-10
2.71E-11
4.14E-10
4.62E-12
2.23E-10
4.60E-10
6
3
1
2
3
6
8
1
1
2
8
1
4
.87E-10
.99E-09
.23E-09
.28E-11
.90E-10
.76E-12
.24E-11
.14E-09
.28E-10
.34E-10
.22E-10
.84E-10
.03E-10
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
stomach
colon
colon
thyroid
thyroid
thyroid
none
thyroid
stomach
thyroid
none
none
none
none
none
colon
87.
87.
49.
56.
85.
66.
83.
94.
64.
51.
90.
75.
52.
79.
78.
9
4
8
1
6
6
6
4
8
8
9
7
9
5
3
95.5
97.6
93.2
-
81.3
61.9
52.1
-
-
-
-
-
88
.2
Lanthanum
La -140
Cerium
Ce-141
Ce-144
Lead
Pb-210
Pb-212
5.0E-04
5.0E-04
5.0E-04
2. OE-01
2. OE-01
1.67E-10
6
5
1
4
.93E-11
.27E-10
.75E-08
.23E-10
2
1
9
2
6
.96E-10
.25E-10
.52E-10
.38E-08
.76E-10
colon
colon
colon
none
colon
92
97
98
-
51
.3
.8
.3
.0
29
-------
Table 2.2, continued
Nuclide
Bismuth
Bi-210
Bi-212
Polonium
Po-210
Radium
Ra-223
Ra-224
Ra-226
Ra-228
Actinium
Ac -227
Ac -228
Mortality Morbidity
fi (Bq-1) (Bq-1)
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
5
5
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-04
.OE-04
1
1
3
4
2
5
2
4
3
.34E-10
.35E-11
.53E-08
.OOE-09
.74E-09
.32E-09
.OOE-08
.43E-09
.13E-11
2
1
4
6
4
7
2
5
5
.41E-10
.92E-11
.79E-08
.44E-09
.50E-09
.75E-09
.81E-08
.43E-09
.41E-11
Dominant
cancer % total
type mortality
colon
stomach
none
colon
colon
none
none
liver
colon
95
50
-
57
61
-
-
56
85
.3
.8
.7
.2
.5
.8
Protactinium
Pa -231
Pa-233
Pa-234
Thorium
Th-227
Th-228
Th-230
Th-231
Th-232
Th-234
Uranium
U-232
U-233
U-234
U-235
U-236
U-238
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
4
8
4
7
1
1
3
1
3
5
1
1
1
1
1
.77E-09
.34E-11
.OOE-11
.21E-10
.82E-09
.67E-09
.31E-11
.87E-09
.46E-10
.52E-09
.26E-09
.24E-09
.21E-09
.17E-09
.13E-09
6
1
6
1
2
2
5
2
6
7
1
1
1
1
1
.74E-09
.50E-10
.93E-11
.28E-09
.90E-09
.46E-09
.96E-11
.73E-09
.25E-10
.88E-09
.94E-09
.91E-09
.88E-09
.81E-09
.73E-09
bone
colon
colon
colon
colon
none
colon
none
colon
none
none
none
none
none
none
47
96
85
93
55
-
97
-
98
-
-
-
-
-
.0
.9
.6
.2
.9
.2
.6
Neptunium
Np-236af
Np-236b*
Np-237
Np-239
Plutonium
Pu-236
Pu-238
Pu-239
Pu-240
Pu-241
Pu-242
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
1
1
1
7
1
2
2
2
3
2
.78E-10
.68E-11
.10E-09
.70E-11
.44E-09
.75E-09
.85E-09
.85E-09
.94E-11
.71E-09
2
3
1
1
2
3
3
3
4
3
.83E-10
.01E-11
.67E-09
.39E-10
.02E-09
.55E-09
.64E-09
.65E-09
.77E-11
.46E-09
colon
colon
colon
colon
liver
liver
liver
liver
liver
liver
51
95
40
97
40
52
53
53
62
53
.8
.4
.4
.0
.2
.7
.9
.8
.0
.9
Americium
Am-241
5
.OE-04
2
* Np-236 isomer with
* Np-236 isomer with
.01E-09
half -life
half -life
2
.81E-09
of 1.15x10
none
5y.
-
of 22.5 h.
30
-------
Table 2.2, continued
Nudide
Mortality
(Bq-1)
Morbidity
Dominant
cancer * total
type mortality
Americium, continued
Am-243 5.0E-04 2.00E-09
Curium
2.79E-09 none
Cm- 242
Cm- 243
Cm- 244
5.
5.
5.
OE-04
OE-04
OE-04
6
1
1
.15E-10
.81E-09
.59E-09
1
2
2
.04E-09
.56E-09
.26E-09
colon
none
none
80.
3
31
-------
-------
Table 2.3a. Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for ingestion of food.
Explanation of Entries
The intake rate of a radionuclide in food (total diet, excluding tap water) is assumed to be
proportional to the energy intake rate. Risk coefficients for ingestion of radionuclides in food are
expressed as the probability of radiogenic cancer mortality or morbidity per unit intake, where the
intake is averaged over all ages and both genders. With two exceptions, the risk coefficient for
ingestion of a radionuclide in food applies to all forms of the radionuclide. For 3H, separate risk
coefficients are given for tritiated water (HTO) and organically bound tritium (OBT), because
different biokinetic models are used for the two forms. Similarly, for 35S, separate risk coefficients
are given for inorganic sulfur (I-S) and organically bound sulfur (OBS) because different biokinetic
models are applied to the two forms.
The/} values (gastrointestinal absorption fractions) shown are the values applied to the adult
and may differ from the values applied to infants and children (see Table 4.la).
The cancer type that makes the largest contribution to cancer mortality resulting from intake
of a radionuclide is given in the column labeled "dominant cancer type", and its percentage
contribution to the total cancer mortality is given in the column labeled "% total mortality". For
example, the entry for 47Ca indicates that colon cancer would account for 83.5% of all cancer deaths
attributable to this exposure. The entry "none" under "dominant cancer type" means that no single
cancer type accounts for more than 40% of the total cancer mortality.
To facilitate application of the risk coefficients, including conversion to other units, the
coefficients are tabulated to three decimal places. No indication of uncertainty is intended or should
be inferred from this practice.
To express a risk coefficient in conventional units (uCi"1), multiply by 3.7><104 Bq jaCi"1.
To express a risk coefficient in terms of a constant activity concentration in food (Bq kg"1),
multiply by 2.75 xlO4 Up, where UF is the lifetime average intake rate of food in terms of mass
(for example, 1.2 kg d , suggested in Chapter 3), and 2.75><104d is the average life span. To
express a risk coefficient in terms of activity per unit energy (Bq kcal"1), multiply by 2.75xl04
UE, where UE is the lifetime average intake rate of food energy (for example, 2048 kcal d" in
Table 3.1). Note that the relative age- and gender-specific food intake rates indicated in Table
3.1 are inherent in the risk coefficient.
33
-------
Table 2.3a. Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for
ingestionoffood.
Nuclide
Hydrogen
H-3CHTO)
H-S(OBT)
Carbon
C-14
Sulfur
S-35(I-S)
S-35(OBS)
Calcium
Ca-45
Ca-47
Scandium
Sc-47
Iron
Fe-55
Fe-59
Cobalt
Co -57
Co -58
Co -60
Nickel
Ni-59
Ni-63
Zinc
Zn-65
Selenium
Se-75
Se-79
Strontium
Sr-89
Sr-90
Yttrium
Y-90
Zirconium
Zr-95
Niobium
Nb-94
Nb-95m
Nb-95
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
3.
3.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
5.
5.
5.
8.
8.
3.
3.
1.
1.
1.
1.
1.
f;
OE+00
OE+00
OE+00
OE+00
OE+00
OE-01
OE-01
OE-04
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-02
OE-02
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-01
OE-04
OE-02
OE-02
OE-02
OE-02
Mortality Morbidity
(Bq-1) (Bq'1)
1
2
3
1
6
6
1
7
2
1
2
6
3
6
1
2
2
1
2
1
3
1
1
8
5
.20E-12
.66E-12
.68E-11
.21E-11
.72E-11
.27E-11
.69E-10
.67E-11
.39E-11
.91E-10
.43E-11
.82E-11
.88E-10
.26E-12
.53E-11
.82E-10
.04E-10
.82E-10
.97E-10
.62E-09
.96E-10
.01E-10
.73E-10
.03E-11
.43E-11
1
3
5
1
1
9
2
1
3
3
4
1
6
1
2
4
2
2
4
1
7
1
3
1
9
.76E-12
.89E-12
.40E-11
.90E-11
.OOE-10
.10E-11
.92E-10
.38E-10
.14E-11
.01E-10
.03E-11
.13E-10
.03E-10
.05E-11
.57E-11
.15E-10
.91E-10
.62E-10
.96E-10
.86E-09
.16E-10
.78E-10
.01E-10
.45E-10
.47E-11
Dominant
cancer % total
type mortality
none
none
none
none
none
colon
colon
colon
leukemia
colon
colon
colon
none
colon
colon
none
none
none
colon
leukemia
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
-
-
51
83
97
43
52
63
62
68
69
_
_
78
79
98
87
82
97
84
.4
.5
.4
.6
.3
.6
.3
,8
.3
.2
.5
.4
.7
.8
.5
.7
Molybdenum
Ho-99
1.
OE+00
4
.06E-11
5
.71E-11
none
Technetium
Tc-95m
Tc-95
5.
5.
OE-01
OE-01
4
1
.09E-11
.28E-11
6
2
.79E-11
.17E-11
colon
colon
59
61
.1
,4
34
-------
Table 2.3a, continued
Nuclide
Technetium
Tc-99m
Tc-99
5
5
fi
Mortality
(Bq-1)
Morbidity
(Bq'1)
Dominant
cancer % total
type mortality
, continued
.OE-01
.OE-01
1
6
.73E-12
.17E-11
3
1
.07E-12
.08E-10
colon
colon
65
73
.9
.9
Ruthenium
Ru-103
Ru-106
Silver
Ag-108m
Ag-llOm
Antimony
Sb-124
Sb-125
Sb-126
Sb-127
Tellurium
Te-125m
Te-127m
Te-127
Te-129m
Te-129
Te-131m
Te-132
Iodine
1-125
1-129
1-131
1-132
1-133
1-134
1-135
Cesium
Cs-134
Cs-135
Cs-136
Cs-137
Barium
Ba-133
Ba-140
5
5
5
5
1
1
1
1
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-02
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE-01
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE+00
.OE-01
.OE-01
8
9
1
2
2
1
2
2
7
2
2
3
4
1
2
9
5
1
9
6
4
1
9
1
2
6
1
3
.48E-11
.35E-10
.92E-10
.30E-10
.86E-10
.01E-10
.46E-10
.22E-10
.51E-11
.03E-10
.25E-11
.39E-10^
.55E-12
.30E-10
.78E-10
.64E-11
.31E-10
.85E-10
.22E-12
.51E-11 -
.97E-12
.90E-11
.57E-10
.07E-10
.05E-10
.88E-10
.73E-10
.34E-10
1
1
3
3
5
1
4
3
1
3
3
5
6
3
6
9
5
1
3
5
9
1
1
1
3
1
2
5
.50E-10
.65E-09
.03E-10
.71E-10
.01E-10
.66E-10
.29E-10
.97E-10
.27E-10
.23E-10
.97E-11
.95E-10
.61E-12
.21E-10
.60E-10
.28E-10
.21E-09
.75E-09
.17E-11
.58E-10
.28E-12
.17E-10
.39E-09
.59E-10
.04E-10
.01E-09
.55E-10
.86E-10
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
stomach
colon
colon
thyroid
thyroid
thyroid
none
thyroid
stomach
thyroid
none
none
none
none
none
colon
89
88
53
59
87
70
85
95
69
56
91
78
51
81
80
95
97
93
-
83
62
54
-
-
-
-
89
.3
.5
.2
.4
.4
.2
.6
.1
.0
.8
.6
.9
.3
.1
.5
.6
.6
.7
.1
.6
.8
.4
Lanthanum
La -140
Cerium
Ce-141
Ce-144
Lead
Pb-210
Pb-212
5
5
5
2
2
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
.OE-01
.OE-01
2
1
7
2
5
.41E-10
.02E-10
.73E-10
.31E-08
.95E-10
4
1
1
3
9
.30E-10
.83E-10
.40E-09
.18E-08
.59E-10
colon
colon
colon
none
colon
93
98
98
53
.2
.0
.5
.0
35
-------
Table 2.3a, continued
Nuclide f.
Bismuth
Bi-210 5.0E-02
Bi-212 5.0E-02
Polonium
Po-210 5.0E-01
Radium
Ra-223 2.0E-01
Ra-224 2.0E-01
Ra-226 2.0E-01
Ra-228 2.0E-01
Actinium
Ac-227 5.0E-04
Ac-228 5.0E-04
Protactinium
Pa-231 5.0E-04
Pa-233 5.0E-04
Pa-234 5.0E-04
Thorium
Th-227 5.0E-04
Th-228 5.0E-04
Th-230 5.0E-04
Th-231 5.0E-04
Th-232 5.0E-04
Th-234 5.0E-04
Uranium
U-232 2.0E-02
U-233 2.0E-02
U-234 2.0E-02
U-235 2.0E-02
U-236 2.0E-02
U-238 2.0E-02
Neptunium
^-2363* 5.0E-04
Np-236b* 5.0E-04
Np-237 5.0E-04
Np-239 5.0E-04
Plutonium
Pu-236 5.0E-04
Pu-238 5.0E-04
Pu-239 5.0E-04
Pu-240 5.0E-04
Pu-241 5.0E-04
Pu-242 5.0E-04
Americium
Ara-241 5.0E-04
Mortality Morbidity
(Bq-1) (Bq-1)
1.95E-10
1.88E-11
4.44E-08
5.63E-09
3.88E-09
7.15E-09
2.74E-08
5.34E-09
4.52E-11
6.15E-09
1.22E-10
5.77E-11
1.05E-09
2.46E-09
2.16E-09
4.86E-11
2.45E-09
5.07E-10
7.22E-09
1.69E-09
1.66E-09
1.62E-09
1.57E-09
1.51E-09
2.42E-10
2.46E-11
1.44E-09
1.13E-10
1.87E-09
3.50E-09
3.63E-09
3.63E-09
5.07E-11
3.45E-09
2.56E-09
* Np-236 isomer with half -life
* Np-236 isomer with half-life
3.52E-10
2.71E-11
6.09E-08
9.15E-09
6.42E-09
1.05E-08
3.86E-08
6.63E-09
7.85E-11
8.73E-09
2.20E-10
l.OOE-10
1.87E-09
3.99E-09
3.22E-09
8.75E-11
3.60E-09
9.18E-10
1.04E-08
2.62E-09
2.58E-09
2.55E-09
2.44E-09
2.34E-09
3.90E-10
4.41E-11
2.24E-09
2.03E-10
2.68E-09
4.58E-09
4.70E-09
4.71E-09
6.17E-11
4.47E-09
3.63E-09
Dominant
cancer
type
colon
stomach
none
colon
colon
none
none
liver
colon
bone
colon
colon
colon
colon
none
colon
none
colon
none
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
colon
none
liver
liver
liver
liver
liver
none
X total
mortality
95.9
49.8
-
60.4
63.7
-
53.9
87.1
44.9
97.2
86.8
94.0
'60.4
97.4
98.7
-
40.4
40.8
43.4
40.8
40.9
55.8
95.8
45.1
97.3
-
50.5
52.0
51.9
61.4
51.9
-
Of 1.15X105 y.
of 22.5
h.
36
-------
Table 2.3a, continued
Nuclide
Mortality Morbidity
(Bq-1)
(Bq'1)
Dominant
cancer X total
type mortality
Americium, continued
Am-243
Curium
Cm- 242
Cm -243
Cm- 244
5
5
5
5
.OE-04
.QE-04
.OE-04
.OE-04
2
8
2
2
.54E-09
.65E-10
.30E-09
.02E-09
3.
1.
3.
2.
61E-09
48E-09
33E-09
93E-09
none
colon
none
none
83.
-
,8
37
-------
-------
Table 2.3b. Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for
ingestion of iodine in food, based on usage of cow's milk.
Explanation of Entries
This table provides additional risk coefficients for intake of radioisotopes of iodine in diet.
In this tabulation, the rate of intake of a radioisotope of iodine is assumed to be proportional to the
ingestion rate of cow's milk.
Risk coefficients for ingestion of radioisotopes of iodine in cow's milk are expressed as the
probability of radiogenic cancer mortality or morbidity per unit intake, where the intake is averaged
over all ages and both genders. The cancer type that makes the largest contribution to the total
cancer mortality rate is given in the column labeled "dominant cancer type", and its percentage
contribution to the total radiogenic cancer mortality is given in the column labeled "% total
mortality".
To facilitate application of the risk coefficients, including conversion to other units, the
coefficients are tabulated to three decimal places. No indication of uncertainty is intended or should
be inferred from this practice.
To express a risk coefficient in conventional units (uCi'1), multiply by 3.7xl04 Bq ^iCf1.
To express a risk coefficient in terms of a constant activity concentration in milk (Bq I/1),
multiply the coefficient by 2.75 xlO4 UM, where UM is the lifetime average rate of ingestion of
milk (for example, 0.243 L d"1 in Table 3.1) and 2.75xlO4 d is the average life span. Note that the
relative age- and gender-specific energy intake rates specified in Table 3.1 are inherent in the risk
coefficient.
39
-------
Table 2.3b. Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for
ingestion of iodine in food, based on usage of cow's milk.
Isotope
1-125
1-129
1-131
1-132
1-133
1-134
1-135
fi
l.OE+00
l.OE+00
l.OE+00
l.OE+00
l.OE+00
l.OE+00
l.OE+00
Mortality
(Bq-1)
1.76E-10
8.86E-10
3.78E-10
1.65E-11
1.34E-10
8.64E-12
3.63E-11
Morbidity
(Bq-1)
1.70E-09
8.69E-09
3.61E-09
6.33E-11
1.19E-09
1.74E-11
2.43E-10
Dominant
cancer
type
thyroid
thyroid
thyroid
none
thyroid
stomach
thyroid
% total
mortality
95.8
97.7
94.6
-
86.5
61.8
61.3
40
-------
Table 2.4. Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients
for external exposure from environmental media.
Explanation of Entries
Risk coefficients are provided for each of three external exposure scenarios: submersion in
contaminated air, exposure from contamination on the ground surface, and exposure from soil
contaminated to an infinite depth. It is assumed that the contaminated ground surface is an infinite
plane and the contaminated air or soil occupies an infinite half-space. Risk coefficients are
expressed as the probability of radiogenic cancer mortality or morbidity per unit time-integrated
activity concentration in air, on the ground surface, or in soil. These risk coefficients are based on
the dosimetric data of Federal Guidance Report No. 12 (EPA, 1993).
Because the distribution of absorbed dose within the body is fairly uniform for most external
exposures, the cancer type with the highest contribution to the total risk is not shown in this table.
To facilitate application of the risk coefficients, including conversion to other units, the
coefficients are tabulated to three decimal places. No indication of uncertainty is intended or should
be inferred from this practice.
To express a risk coefficient in terms of a constant activity concentration of the radionuclide in
the environmental medium, multiply the coefficient by 2.37x109 s.
To express a risk coefficient in conventional units of activity, multiply the coefficient by 3.7><104
BqjiCi"1.
To express arisk coefficient in time units of year (y), multiply the coefficient by 3.16*107 s y'1.
To express a risk coefficient for submersion in volume units of cm3, multiply the coefficient by
Ixl06cm3m-3.
To express a risk coefficient for ground plane in area units of cm2, multiply the coefficient by
Ixl04cm2m-2.
To express a risk coefficient for soil in mass units of g, multiply the coefficient by 1 xlO3 g kg"1.
41
-------
Table 2.4. Mortality and morbidity risk coefficients
for external exposure from environmental media.
Mortality
Submersion
Nuclide m3/Bq-s
Ground
Plane
ra2/Bq-s
Morbidity
Soil Submersion
kg/Bq-s m3/Bq-s
Ground
Plane
m2/Bq-s
Soil
kg/Bq-s
Hydrogen
H-3
Carbon
C-14
Sulfur
S-35
Argon
Ar-37
Ar-39
Ar-41
Calcium
Ca-45
Ca-47
O.OOE+00
3.23E-20
3.79E-20
O.OOE+00.
1.46E-18
3.38E-15
1.79E-19
2.78E-15
0
5
5
0
3
6
1
5
.OOE+00
.30E-22
.60E-22
.OOE+00
.67E-20
.54E-17
.69E-21
.41E-17
0
4
5
0
3
3
2
3
.OOE+00
.46E-21
.OOE-21
.OOE+00
.46E-19
.73E-15
.28E-20
.06E-15
0.
3.
4.
0.
1.
4.
1.
4.
OOE+00
66E-20
27E-20
OOE+00
66E-18
96E-15
97E-19
09E-15
0.
8.
8.
0.
4.
9.
2.
7.
OOE+00
24E-22
68E-22
OOE+00
39E-20
60E-17
59E-21
95E-17
0
6
7
0
5
5
3
4
.OOE+00
.71E-21
.51E-21
.OOE+00
.09E-19
.47E-15
.39E-20
.49E-15
Scandium
Sc-47
Iron
Fe-55
Fe-59
Cobalt
Co -57
Co -58
Co -60
Nickel
Ni-59
Ni-63
Zinc
Zn-65
Selenium
Se-75
Se-79
Krypton
Kr-74
Kr-76
Kr-77
Kr-79
Kr-81m
Kr-81
Kr-83m
Kr-85m
Kr-85
Kr-87
Kr-88
2.46E-16
O.OOE+00
3.09E-15
2.63E-16
2.43E-15
6.55E-15
O.OOE+00
O.OOE+00
1.50E-15
9.02E-16
4.80E-20
2.81E-15
1.01E-15
2.43E-15
6.09E-16
2.97E-16
1.32E-17
4.44E-20
3.61E-16
7.23E-18
2.15E-15
5.37E-15
5
0
6
5
5
1
0
0
2
1
6
6
2
5
1
6
3
1
8
2
4
9
.39E-18
.OOE+00
.05E-17
.86E-18
.07E-17
.27E-16
.OOE+00
.OOE+00
.97E-17
.97E-17
.94E-22
.16E-17
.20E-17
.34E-17
.31E-17
.45E-18
.06E-19
.07E-20
.OOE-18
.15E-19
.06E-17
.45E-17
2
0
3
2
2
7
0
0
1
8
6
2
1
2
6
2
1
6
3
6
2
5
.HE -16
.OOE+00
.40E-15
.07E-16
.62E-15
.23E-15
.OOE+00
.OOE+00
.64E-15
.41E-16
.25E-21
.86E-15
.01E-15
.46E-15
.29E-16
.68E-16
.27E-17
.99E-21
.18E-16
.15E-18
.34E-15
.94E-15
3.
0.
4.
3.
3.
9.
0.
0.
2.
1.
5.
4.
1.
3.
8.
4.
1.
7.
5.
1.
3.
7.
63E-16
OOE+00
54E-15
89E-16
58E-15
63E-15
OOE+00
OOE+00
20E-15
33E-15
39E-20
13E-15
49E-15
58E-15
97E-16
38E-16
94E-17
61E-20
33E-16
OOE-17
16E-15
89E-15
7.
0.
8.
8.
7.
1.
0.
0.
4.
2.
1.
9.
3.
7.
1.
9.
4.
1.
1.
2.
5.
1.
92E-18
OOE+00
90E-17
63E-18
46E-17
87E-16
OOE+00
OOE+00
37E-17
89E-17
08E-21
03E-17
24E-17
83E-17
92E-17
49E-18
54E-19
76E-20
17E-17
79E-19
92E-17
39E-16
3
0
4
3
3
1
0
0
2
1
9
4
1
3
9
3
1
1
4
9
3
8
.10E-16
.OOE+00
.99E-15
.04E-16
.84E-15
.06E-14
.OOE+00
.OOE+00
.41E-15
.24E-15
.40E-21
.20E-15
.48E-15
.61E-15
.24E-16
.94E-16
.87E-17
.15E-20
.68E-16
.02E-18
.43E-15
.72E-15
42
-------
Table 2.4, continued
Mortality
Submersion
Nuclide m3/Bq-s
Bromine
Br-74 1.
Br-76 6.
Br-77 7.
Rubidium
Rb-87 3.
Rb-88 1.
Strontium
Sr-89 7.
Sr-90 1.
Yttrium
Y-90 1.
Zirconium
Zr-95 1.
Niobium
Nb-94 3.
Nb-95m 1.
Nb-95 1.
25E-14
95E-15
60E-16
87E-19
77E-15
30E-18
24E-18
53E-17
84E-15
94E-15
44E-16
91E-15
2
1
1
3
3
7
2
1
3
8
3
3
Ground
Plane
m2/Bq-s
.19E-16
.32E-16
.63E-17
.36E-21
.37E-17
.72E-19
.60E-20
.31E-18
.85E-17
.18E-17
.17E-18
.99E-17
Soil
kg/Bq-s
1
7
7
5
1
4
2
1
1
4
1
2
.36E-14
.54E-15
.81E-16
.25E-20
.96E-15
.37E-18
.80E-19
.16E-17
.98E-15
.25E-15
.35E-16
.06E-15
Submersion
m3/Bq-s
1
1
1
4
2
9
1
1
2
5
2
2
.84E-14
.02E-14
.12E-15
.25E-19
.60E-15
.04E-18
.40E-18
.96E-17
.71E-15
.79E-15
.12E-16
.81E-15
Morbidity
Ground
Plane
nr/Bq-s
3
1
2
5
4
8
3
1
5
1
4
5
.21E-16
.93E-16
.41E-17
.11E-21
.88E-17
.25E-19
.20E-20
.43E-18
.68E-17
.21E-16
.68E-18
.88E-17
Soil
kg/Bq-s
1
1
1
7
2
6
4
1
2
6
1
3
.99E-14
.HE -14
.15E-15
.80E-20
.88E-15
.16E-18
.13E-19
.64E-17
.91E-15
.24E-15
.99E-16
.02E-15
Molybdenum
Mo-99 3.
71E-16
8
.16E-18
3
.87E-16
5
.45E-16
1
.18E-17
5
.69E-16
Technetium
Tc-95m 1.
Tc-95 1.
Tc-99m 2.
Tc-99 3.
Ruthenium
Ru-103 1.
Ru-106 0.
Rh-103m 2.
Rh-106 5.
Silver
Ag-108m 3.
Ag-108 5.
Ag-llOm 6.
Ag-110 9.
Antimony
Sb-124 4.
Sb-125 1.
Sb-126 7.
Sb-127 1.
Tellurium
Te-125m 1.
Te-127m 4.
63E-15
96E-15
79E-16
38E-19
14E-15
OOE+00
17E-19
36E-16
96E-15
06E-17
97E-15
81E-17
74E-15
02E-15
OOE-15
69E-15
32E-17
49E-18
3
4
6
2
2
0
2
1
8
1
1
3
9
2
1
3
1
3
.45E-17
.10E-17
.15E-18
.98E-21
.45E-17
.OOE+00
.85E-20
.26E-17
.44E-17
.74E-18
.42E-16
.27E-18
.22E-17
.22E-17
.48E-16
.61E-17
.04E-18
.30E-19
1
2
2
4
1
0
4
5
4
5
7
9
5
1
7
1
3
1
.71E-15
.12E-15
.29E-16
.69E-20
.19E-15
.OOE+00
.75E-20
.64E-16
.19E-15
.01E-17
.57E-15
.97E-17
.18E-15
.06E-15
.47E-15
.79E-15
.77E-18
.51E-18
2
2
4
3
1
0
3
7
5
7
1
1
6
1
1
2
2
7
.40E-15
.89E-15
.12E-16
.72E-19
.67E-15
.OOE+00
.78E-19
.85E-16
.82E-15
.27E-17
.03E-14
.41E-16
.97E-15
.50E-15
.03E-14
.49E-15
.14E-17
.18E-18
5
6
9
4
3
0
4
1
1
2
2
4
1
3
2
5
1
5
.08E-17
.04E-17
.06E-18
.53E-21
.61E-17
.OOE+00
.79E-20
.80E-17
.24E-16
.23E-18
.09E-16
.22E-18
.35E-16
.27E-17
.18E-16
.31E-17
.65E-18
.21E-19
2
3
3
6
1
0
7
8
6
7
1
1
7
1
1
2
5
2
.51E-15
.HE -15
.37E-16
.97E-20
.75E-15
.OOE+00
.97E-20
.27E-16
.15E-15
.33E-17
.HE -14
.45E-16
.61E-15
.55E-15
.10E-14
.63E-15
.95E-18
.34E-18
43
-------
Table 2.4, continued
Mortality
Nuclide
Submersion
m3/Bq-s
Tellurium,
Te-127
Te-129m
Te-129
Te-131m
Te-131
Te-132
Iodine
1-125
1-129
1-131
1-132
1-133
1-134
1-135
Xenon
Xe-120
Xe-121
Xe-122
Xe-123
Xe-125
Xe-127
Xe-129m
Xe-131m
Xe-133ra
Xe-133
Xe-135ra
Xe-135
Xe-138
Cesium
Cs-134
Cs-135
Cs-136
Cs-137
Cs-138
Cerium
Ce-141
Ce-144
1
7
1
3
1
4
1
1
9
5
1
6
4
9
4
1
1
5
6
4
1
6
6
1
5
3
3
1
5
1
6
1
3
Ground
Plane
nr/Bq-s
Soil
kg/Bq-s
Morbidity
Submersion
m3/Bq-s
Ground
Plane
m2/Bq-s
Soil
kg/Bq-s
continued
.32E-17
.83E-17
.41E-16
.59E-15
.03E-15
.97E-16
.48E-17
.17E-17
.14E-16
.73E-15
.50E-15
.68E-15
.15E-15
.69E-16
.73E-15
.16E-16
.53E-15
.79E-16
.01E-16
.06E-17
.47E-17
.30E-17
.59E-17
.03E-15
.87E-16
.01E-15
.86E-15
.12E-19
.44E-15
.20E-18
.31E-15
.62E-16
.90E-17
3.22E-19
2.03E-18
3.63E-18
7.31E-17
2.24E-17
1.13E-17
1.22E-18
8.05E-19
1.98E-17
1.19E-16
3.21E-17
1.36E-16
7.96E-17
2.15E-17
9.04E-17
3.03E-18
3.20E-17
1.31E-17
1.37E-17
1.82E-18
6.88E-19
1.74E-18
1.96E-18
2.24E-17
1.29E-17
5.61E-17
8.11E-17
1.18E-21
1.11E-16
3.96E-20
1.19E-16
3.69E-18
9.61E-19
1
8
1
3
1
4
3
3
9
6
1
7
4
9
5
1
1
5
5
2
8
5
3
1
5
3
4
1
5
3
6
1
2
.22E-17
.05E-17
.43E-16
.86E-15
.04E-15
.57E-16
.89E-18
.34E-18
.28E-16
.18E-15
.58E-15
.25E-15
.57E-15
.91E-16
.09E-15
.07E-16
.59E-15
.46E-16
.54E-16
.44E-17
.11E-18
.38E-17
.83E-17
.09E-15
.66E-16
.28E-15
.14E-15
.35E-20
.86E-15
.14E-19
.93E-15
.32E-16
.92E-17
1
1
2
5
1
7
2
1
1
8
2
9
6
1
6
1
2
8
8
6
2
9
9
1
8
4
5
1
8
1
9
2
5
.89E-17
.15E-16
.06E-16
.28E-15
.51E-15
.35E-16
.41E-17
.85E-17
.35E-15
.43E-15
.20E-15
.83E-15
.10E-15
.43E-15
.95E-15
.72E-16
.26E-15
.56E-16
.88E-16
.19E-17
.24E-17
.34E-17
.86E-17
.52E-15
.65E-16
.42E-15
.68E-15
.23E-19
.01E-15
.37E-18
.27E-15
.39E-16
.78E-17
4
2
5
1
3
1
1
1
2
1
4
2
1
3
1
4
4
1
2
2
1
2
2
3
1
8
1
1
1
4
1
5
1
.50E-19
.91E-18
.10E-18
.08E-16
.26E-17
.68E-17
.94E-18
.26E-18
.92E-17
.75E-16
.71E-17
.OOE-16
.17E-16
.17E-17
.33E-16
.54E-18
.71E-17
.94E-17
.02E-17
.80E-18
.06E-18
.61E-18
.93E-18
.30E-17
.89E-17
.22E-17
.19E-16
.81E-21
.64E-16
.57E-20
.75E-16
.44E-18
.42E-18
1.
1.
2.
5.
1.
6.
6.
5.
1.
9.
2.
1.
6.
1.
7.
1.
2.
8.
8.
3.
1.
7.
5.
1.
8.
4.
6.
2.
8.
4.
1.
1.
4.
80E-17
18E-16
10E-16
66E-15
53E-15
71E-16
20E-18
22E-18
36E-15
08E-15
33E-15
06E-14
71E-15
46E-15
48E-15
57E-16
33E-15
03E-16
15E-16
64E-17
21E-17
92E-17
67E-17
59E-15
31E-16
81E-15
08E-15
02E-20
60E-15
56E-19
02E-14
94E-16
30E-17
Praseodymium
Pr-144ra
Pr-144
Barium
Ba-133
Ba-137m
1
1
8
1
.01E-17
.09E-16
.70E-16
.47E-15
4.75E-19
3.27E-18
1.99E-17
3.12E-17
4
1
8
1
.99E-18
.14E-16
.37E-16
.57E-15
1
1
1
2
.56E-17
.56E-16
.28E-15
.16E-15
7
4
2
4
.23E-19
.22E-18
.95E-17
.60E-17
7.
1.
1.
2.
48E-18
66E-16
23E-15
30E-15
44
-------
Table 2.4, continued
Mortality
Submersion
Nuclide m3/Bq-s
Ground
Plane
m2/Bq-s
Soil
kg/Bq-s
Morbidity
Submersion
m3/Bq-s
Ground
Plane
it)2/Bq-s
Soil
kg/Bq-s
Barium, continued
Ba-140 4.
Lanthanum
La-140 6.
Thallium
Tl-207 1.
T1-2Q8 9.
Tl-209 5.
Lead
Pb-210 2.
Pb-211 1.
Pb-212 3.
Pb-214 5.
Bismuth
Bi-210 3.
Bi-211 1.
Bi-212 4.
Bi-214 3.
Polonium
Po-210 2.
Po-211 1.
Po-212 0.
Po-214 2.
Po-215 4.
Po-216 4.
Po-218 2.
Radon
Rn-218 1.
Rn-219 1.
Rn-220 9.
Rn-222 9.
Francium
Fr-223 1.
Radium
Ra-223 2.
Ra-224 2.
Ra-226 1.
Ra-228 0.
Actinium
Ac-227 2.
Ac-228 2.
32E-16
10E-15
HE -17
33E-15
30E-15
11E-18
29E-16
31E-16
85E-16
79E-18
10E-16
78E-16
98E-15
13E-20
95E-17
OOE+00
09E-19
24E-19
24E-20
30E-20
86E-18
33E-16
40E-19
67E-19
06E-16
91E-16
30E-17
51E-17
OOE+00
67E-19
45E-15
9.
1.
7.
1.
1.
9.
3.
7.
1.
3.
2.
1.
7.
4.
4.
0.
4.
9.
8.
4.
3.
2.
2.
2.
2.
6.
5.
3.
0.
6.
4.
57E-18
17E-16
10E-19
62E-16
03E-16
43E-20
15E-18
35E-18
28E-17
89E-19
41E-18
01E-17
65E-17
43E-22
06E-19
OOE+00
34E-21
21E-21
82E-22
74E-22
96E-20
89E-18
02E-20
09E-20
94E-18
55E-18
OOE-19
32E-19
OOE+00
91E-21
99E-17
4
6
8
1
5
8
1
2
5
1
1
5
4
2
2
0
2
4
4
2
1
1
9
1
8
2
2
1
0
2
2
.44E-16
.70E-15
.95E-18
.03E-14
.74E-15
.06E-19
.34E-16
.97E-16
.72E-16
.66E-18
.10E-16
.18E-16
.37E-15
.30E-20
.09E-17
.OOE+00
.2SE-19
.36E-19
.59E-20
.48E-20
.97E-18
.31E-16
.91E-19
.01E-18
.16E-17
.53E-16
.17E-17
.33E-17
.OOE+00
.02E-19
.64E-15
6
8
1
1
7
3
1
4
8
4
1
7
5
3
2
0
3
6
6
3
2
1
1
1
1
4
3
2
0
3
3
.36E-16
.96E-15
.49E-17
.37E-14
.79E-15
.22E-18
.89E-16
.89E-16
.62E-16
.52E-18
.62E-16
.02E-16
.85E-15
.13E-20
.86E-17
.OOE+00
.07E-19
.24E-19
.24E-20
.38E-20
.73E-18
.96E-16
.38E-18
.42E-18
.57E-16
.30E-16
.40E-17
.23E-17
.OOE+00
.96E-19
.61E-15
1
1
8
2
1
1
4
1
1
4
3
1
1
6
5
0
6
1
1
6
5
4
2
3
4
9
7
4
0
1
7
.40E-17
.71E-16
.01E-19
.37E-16
.50E-16
.43E-19
.42E-18
.08E-17
.89E-17
.13E-19
.54E-18
.46E-17
.12E-16
.52E-22
.98E-19
.OOE+00
.39E-21
.36E-20
.30E-21
.99E-22
.83E-20
.25E-18
.97E-20
.08E-20
.23E-18
.64E-18
.35E-19
.89E-19
.OOE+00
.04E-20
.33E-17
6
9
1
1
8
1
1
4
8
2
1
7
6
3
3
0
3
6
6
3
2
1
1
1
1
3
3
1
0
2
3
.52E-16
.83E-15
.30E-17
.51E-14
.42E-15
.21E-18
.96E-16
.36E-16
.41E-16
.36E-18
.61E-16
.60E-16
.41E-15
.38E-20
.07E-17
.OOE+00
.31E-19
.41E-19
.74E-20
.65E-20
.90E-18
.93E-16
.46E-18
.49E-18
.20E-16
.72E-16
.19E-17
.96E-17
.OOE+00
.98E-19
.88E-15
Protactinium
Pa-231 8.
Pa-233 4.
41E-17
58E-16
1.
1.
96E-18
01E-17
8
4
.09E-17
.32E-16
1
6
.24E-16
.75E-16
2
1
.92E-18
.49E-17
1
6
.19E-16
.36E-16
45
-------
Table 2.4, continued
Mortality
Ground
Submersion Plane
Nucl i de m3/Bq - s m2/Bq - s
Soil
kg/Bq-s
Morbidity
Ground
Submersion Plane
m3/Bq-s mz/Bq-s
Soil
kg/Bq-s
Protactinium, continued
Pa-234m
Pa -234
Thorium
Th-227
Th-228
Th-230
Th-231
Th-232
Th-234
Uranium
U-232
U-233
U-234
U-235
U-236
U-238
4.17E-17
4.77E-15
2.37E-16
4.24E-18
7.46E-19
2.25E-17
3.51E-19
1.50E-17
5.66E-19
7.24E-19
2.79E-19
3.45E-16
1.66E-19
9.95E-20
Neptunium
Np-236af 2.48E-16
Np-236b* 9.99E-17
Np-237
Np-239
4.56E-17
3.67E-16
1
9
5
1
2
7
1
3
2
2
2
7
1
1
5
2
1
8
.73E-18
.81E-17
.30E-18
.07E-19
.69E-20
.05E-19
.73E-20
.86E-19
.97E-20
.51E-20
.01E-20
.60E-18
.65E-20
.34E-20
.81E-18
.31E-18
.24E-18
.24E-18
4.04E-17
5
2
3
4
1
1
9
3
5
1
3
7
2
1
7
3
3
.08E-15
.20E-16
.25E-18
.74E-19
.42E-17
.97E-19
.52E-18
.45E-19
.70E-19
.44E-19
.02E-16
.03E-20
.70E-20
.89E-16
.81E-17
.HE -17
.15E-16
5.
7.
3.
6.
1.
3.
5.
2.
8.
1.
4.
5.
2.
1.
3.
1.
6.
5.
88E-17
02E-15
50E-16
29E-18
12E-18
36E-17
35E-19
23E-17
67E-19
09E-18
37E-19
09E-16
67E-19
66E-19
67E-16
48E-16
79E-17
42E-16
2.
1.
7.
1.
4.
1.
2.
5.
4.
3.
3.
1.
2.
2.
8.
3.
1.
1.
HE -18
44E-16
81E-18
60E-19
17E-20
08E-18
74E-20
74E-19
78E-20
91E-20
29E-20
12E-17
73E-20
25E-20
62E-18
41E-18
86E-18
22E-17
5
7
3
4
7
2
2
1
5
8
2
4
1
4
2
1
4
4
.88E-17
.46E-15
.24E-16
.79E-18
.01E-19
.10E-17
.93E-19
.40E-17
.12E-19
.41E-19
.16E-19
.44E-16
.07E-19
.27E-20
.78E-16
.15E-16
.59E-17
.63E-16
Plutonium
Pu-236
Pu-238
Pu-239
Pu-240
Pu-241
Pu-242
1.87E-19
1.34E-19
1.65E-19
1.31E-19
3.29E-21
1.12E-19
2
1
9
1
8
1
.33E-20
.95E-20
.99E-21
.88E-20
.44E-23
.57E-20
6
3
1
3
2
3
.56E-20
.88E-20
.15E-19
.76E-20
.39E-21
.38E-20
3.
2.
2.
2.
4.
1.
13E-19
28E-19
56E-19
24E-19
89E-21
91E-19
3.
3.
1.
3.
1.
2.
92E-20
30E-20
63E-20
17E-20
27E-22
64E-20
1
6
1
5
3
5
.02E-19
.18E-20
.71E-19
.98E-20
.52E-21
.35E-20
AmericiUm
Am-241
Am-243
Curium
Cm-242
Cm-243
Cra-244
* Np-236
* Np-236
3.33E-17
9.45E-17
1.50E-19
2.81E-16
1.22E-19
1
2
2
6
2
isomer with
isomer with
.HE -18
.51E-18
.20E-20
.31E-18
.OOE-20
1
5
4
2
2
half -life
half -life
.59E-17
.49E-17
.10E-20
.44E-16
.46E-20
5.
1.
2.
4.
2.
of 1.15xl05
of 22.5 h.
OOE-17
41E-16
59E-19
16E-16
15E-19
y-
1.
3.
3.
9.
3.
68E-18
71E-18
71E-20
31E-18
39E-20
2
8
6
3
4
.36E-17
.11E-17
.62E-20
.59E-16
.15E-20
46
-------
CHAPTERS. EXPOSURE SCENARIOS
The risk coefficients developed in this report are gender-averaged values based on biokinetic,
dosimetric, and radiation risk models that represent typical or "reference" male and female members
of the U.S. population, from infancy through old age. Although the coefficients may be interpreted
in terms of either acute or chronic exposure, computations are based on the assumption that these
persons are exposed throughout life, beginning at birth, to a constant concentration of a radionuclide
in a given environmental medium. In utero exposures are not considered in this document.
Characteristics of the exposed population
The physical characteristics of the reference male and reference female at different ages are
described in reports by Cristy and Eckerman (1987, 1993). The vital statistics for these reference
persons are based on the 1989-91 U.S. decennial life table (NCHS, 1997) and U.S. cancer mortality
data for the same period (NCHS, 1992,1993a, 1993b). That is, it is assumed that the exposed male
and female are subject to the risk of dying from a competing cause (any cause other than a cancer
produced by the radiation exposure hypothesized here) indicated by the 1989-91 U.S. decennial life
table and are subject to the risk of experiencing or dying from cancer at a specific site indicated by
U.S. cancer mortality data for the same period. Gender-specific survival functions (fractions of live-
born individuals surviving to different ages) for the stationary population are shown in Fig. 3.1.
Methods of extending or smoothing the U.S. vital statistics for use in this report are described in
Appendix A.
Growth of decay chain members
For each of the internal exposure scenarios, the risk coefficient for a radionuclide includes
the contribution to dose from production of decay chain members in the body after intake of the
parent radionuclide. However, for either an internal or external exposure scenario, the risk
coefficient for a given radionuclide is based on the assumption that this is the only radionuclide
present in the environmental medium. Growth of chain members in the environment is not
considered because this would require the assumption of a temporal pattern of contamination and
environmental behavior of decay chain members and thus would limit the applicability of the risk
coefficients. For each of the radionuclides addressed in this document, however, a separate risk
47
-------
100 120
Age (y)
Fig. 3.1. Gender-specific survival functions for the stationary population.
coefficient is provided for any subsequent chain member that is of potential dosimetric significance.
This enables the user to assess the risks from ingrowth of radionuclides in the environment.
Inhalation of radionuclides
Risk coefficients (Bq"1) for inhalation of radionuclides in air are expressed as risk of cancer
mortality or morbidity per unit activity intake. The age- and gender-specific inhalation rates used
in this report (Table 3.1, Fig. 3.2) are taken from ICRP Publication 66 (1994a). These inhalation
rates are based on breathing rates measured during periods of rest, light activity, or heavy activity.
The average 24-h ventilation rate is estimated as a time-weighted average of ventilation rates for rest
periods and periods of light and heavy activity.
Recently, Layton (1993) proposed a different approach for the estimation of average
inhalation rates at different ages. Estimates are based on typical oxygen consumption associated
with energy expenditure and are derived using the equation VE = E * H x VQ, where VE is the
48
-------
ventilation rate (L min"1), E is the average rate of energy expenditure (kilojoules min"1), His the
volume of oxygen (at standard temperature and pressure) consumed in the production of 1 kilojoule
49
-------
Table 3.1. Age- and gender-specific usage rates of environmental media, for selected ages.3
Air"
(m3 d'1)
Age (y)
0
1
5
10
15
20
50
75
Lifetime
average
Combined
lifetime
average'
M
2.9
5.2
8.8
15.3
20.1
22.2
22.2
22.2
19.2
F
2.9
5.2
8.8
15.3
15.7
17.7
17.7
17.7
16.5
17.8
Tap water0
(Ld-1)
M
0.191
0.223
0.542
0.725
0.900
1.137
1.643
1.564
1.29
1.11
F
0.188
0.216
0.499
0.649
0.712
0.754
1.119
1.179
0.93
Food energyd
(kcal d'1)
M
478
791
1566
1919
2425
2952
2570
1990
2418
F
470
752
1431
1684
1828
1927
1758
1508
1695
20489
Cow's milk6
(Ld-1)
M
0.339
0.349
0.413
0.486
0.519
0.414
0.192
0.192
0.282
F
0.350
0.358
0.409
0.428
0.356
0.249
0.139
' 0.139
0.207
0.243
"All values are based on estimated averages for the U.S. population for the indicated age. Ages refer to birthdays; e.g.,
a given rate at age 5 y indicates the rate on the fifth birthday. Data reported for age intervals were converted to point
estimates by preserving the total intake in each interval using a cubic spline fitting method (Fritsch and Carlson, 1980).
Fitted curves were smoothed using a 3-point moving average. The listed usage rates are the values used in the
calculation and are generally more precise than the data would support.
bFrom Tables B.16A and B.16B of ICRP Publication 66, 1994a.
'Based on survey data of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (Ershow and Cantor, 1989). Includes drinking water, water
added to beverages, and water added to foods during preparation, but not water intrinsic in food as purchased.
dBascd on data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (McDowell et al., 1994).
"Used in one of two scenarios for ingestion of radioisotopes of iodine in diet. The other scenario assumes that iodine
intake is proportional to food energy usage. Milk usage is based on data from EPA report 520/1-84-021 (1984b).
*Based on the male-to-female ratio at birth, the gender-specific survival function, and the gender-specific usage function.
8For a typical U.S. diet, equivalent to a lifetime average intake of about 1.2 kg food d"1 (see text).
50
-------
-------
.30
'25
"-'20
o
^ 4 c
i- 15
I"
« 5
c
~ 0
Male
Female
10
15
Age (y)
20
25
30
2.0
d,1'5
0
J£
<9 1.0
-------
7 y to about 37 at age 17 y. Because reliable age- and gender-dependent central values for VQ have
not been established, the ICRP's recommended age- and gender-specific inhalation rates, rather than
rates derived from Layton's method, are applied in the present study.1
Risk coefficients for inhalation are based on an activity median aerodynamic diameter
(AMAD) of 1 urn. This particle size is recommended by the ICRP for consideration of
environmental exposures in the absence of specific information about the physical characteristics
of the aerosol (ICRP, 1994a).
The rate of clearance of a radionuclide from the respiratory tract and the extent of absorption
of the radionuclide to blood depend on the rate of dissolution of the inhaled particulate. For
application of the ICRP's respiratory tract model (ICRP, 1994a) to radionuclides inhaled in
particulate form, a given compound of a radioelement usually is assigned to one of three default
absorption types: Type F, indicating fast dissolution and a high level of absorption to blood; Type
M, indicating an intermediate rate of dissolution and an intermediate level of absorption to blood;
and Type S, indicating slow dissolution and a low level of absorption to blood. For application of
the model to radionuclides inhaled as a gas (Type G) or vapor (Type V), material-specific parameter
values are applied (ICRP, 1995b).
For each of the elements addressed in the ICRP's series on doses to the public from intake
of radionuclides, a recommendation is made by the ICRP concerning a default absorption type to be
used in the absence of specific information (ICRP Publication 71, 1995b). For other elements,
recommendations in ICRP Publication 30 (1979, 1980, 1981, 1988) concerning clearance classes
are generally applied, with clearance classes D, W, and Y assumed to correspond to absorption
Types F, M, and S, respectively. For some radionuclides, different default clearance classes are
listed in ICRP Publication 30 for different chemical forms.
The data underlying the ICRP's selections of default absorption types are often very limited
and in many cases reflect occupational rather than environmental experience. Due to the uncertainty
in the form of a radionuclide likely to be inhaled by members of the public, a range of plausible
absorption types is addressed in this document. For a given radionuclide, the different absorption
types considered generally include the default absorption type(s) recommended by the ICRP, plus
the "adjacent" absorption type(s). If the default absorption type is Type S, then calculations are
made for the "adjacent" absorption type, Type M, as well as for Type S. If the default is Type F,
The problem also arises that fractional deposition in different regions of the respiratory tract depends on
the tidal volume and respiratory frequency associated with the various daily activities (ICRP, 1994a). Layton's
method does not address these individual components of the inhalation rate, and it is not evident how these two
parameters should be adjusted for application of Layton's estimates of daily air intake.
53
-------
then calculations are made for Type M as well as for Type F. If the default is Type M, or if the ICRP
does not specify a single default absorption type, then calculations are made for all three absorption
types. This scheme eliminates some presumably unlikely cases such as highly insoluble forms of
cesium or iodine, or highly soluble forms of thorium. Because Type M is the default absorption type
in most cases, all three absorption types are usually considered.
Except for tritium and radioisotopes of carbon, iodine, and tellurium, radionuclides are
assumed to be inhaled only in particulate form. It is assumed that tritium is in the form of a vapor
(HTO as Type V) or a gas (HT as Type G); carbon is in gaseous form (Type G) as carbon monoxide
(CO) or carbon dioxide (CO^; iodine is in the form of a vapor (Type V), a gas (methyl iodide, CH^ I,
as Type G), or a particulate (Type F or Type M); and tellurium is in the form of a vapor (Type V)
or a particulate (Type F, Type M, or Type S).
Intake of radionuclides in food
Risk coefficients (Bq"1) for ingestion of radionuclides in food are expressed as risk of cancer
mortality or morbidity per unit activity intake. The intake rate of a radionuclide in food is assumed
to be proportional to food energy usage (kcal per day). Age- and gender-specific values for food
energy usage (Table 3.1) are based on data from the Third National Health and Nutrition
Examination Survey (NHANES III), Phase 1,1989-91 (McDowell et al., 1994).
Food usage is often expressed in terms of mass rather than energy. Based on a 1994-95
food-intake survey by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the lifetime average intake rate of food
is approximately 1.2 kg per day (Wilson et al., 1997). This value and the lifetime average energy
intake of 2048 kcal per day given in Table 3.1 imply an average energy density for the U.S. diet of
about 1700 kcal per kg food.
For radioiodine, a second set of risk coefficients is derived under the assumption that the
intake rate is proportional to usage of cow's milk, typically the dominant source of radioiodine in
diet (UNSCEAR, 1982). Age- and gender-specific values for average daily usage of cow's milk
(Table 3.1) are based on data tabulated by the EPA (EPA, 1984b).
For 3H in diet, separate risk coefficients are given for tritiated water and organically bound
tritium, for which different biokinetic models are recommended by the ICRP (ICRP, 1989). Also,
for 3SS in diet, separate risk coefficients are given for inorganic and organic sulfur, for which
different biokinetic models are recommended (ICRP, 1993).
54
-------
Intake of radionuclides in tap water
Risk coefficients (Bq"1) for ingestion of radionuclides in tap water are expressed as risk of
cancer mortality or morbidity per unit activity intake. Age-specific usage rates for tap water
(Table 3.1) are based on results of the 1977-1978 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey of the U.S.
Department of Agriculture as analyzed by Ershow and Cantor (1989). The data for usage of tap
water in Table 3.1 include drinking water, water added to beverages, and water added to foods
during preparation but do not include usage of water intrinsic in food as purchased. The reported
data for tap water usage (Ershow and Cantor, 1989) were not divided by gender. Gender-specific
values were derived by assuming (before the intake rate curves were smoothed) that the male-to-
female intake rate ratio at a given age is the same as that observed for food energy intake (McDowell
etal., 1994).
As is the case for intake in food, separate risk coefficients for tap water usage are given for
tritiated water and organically bound tritium and for inorganic and organic 35S.
External exposure to radionuclides in air
Risk coefficients (m3 Bq"1 s"1) for submersion are expressed as risk of cancer mortality or
morbidity per unit integrated exposure to a radionuclide in air. The external dose rates used in the
calculations (EPA, 1993) were calculated for a reference adult male, standing outdoors with no
shielding. No adjustments are made in this exposure scenario to account for potential differences
with age and gender in the external doses received or for potential reduction in dose due to shielding
by buildings during time spent indoors.
External exposure to radionuclides in soil
Risk coefficients are tabulated for two different scenarios for exposure to contaminated soil:
(1) external exposure to radiations from the ground surface, and (2) external exposure to radiations
from soil contaminated to an infinite depth. In both cases the contamination is assumed to be of
infinite lateral extent. The risk coefficients are expressed as risk of cancer mortality or morbidity
per unit integrated exposure to a radionuclide. The units are m2 Bq"1 s"1 for contaminated ground
surface and kg Bq"1 s"1 for soil contaminated to an infinite depth.
The tabulations of dose coefficients in Federal Guidance Report No. 12 (EPA, 1993) for
cases of external exposure to radiations from contaminated soil were calculated for a reference adult
55
-------
male standing on the contaminated soil. No adjustments are made in this exposure scenario to
account for potential differences with age and gender hi the external doses received or for potential
reduction in dose due to shielding by buildings during time spent indoors.
Recommendations concerning cleanup of contaminated soil are sometimes based on the
radionuclide concentration in soil to a depth of 15 cm (NRC, 1977). As indicated by the tabulations
of dose coefficients in Federal Guidance Report No. 12, dose rates from soil contaminated to a depth
of 15 cm generally differ by only 0-20% from dose rates from soil contaminated to an infinite depth
(that is, to several meters below the surface) due to shielding provided by the top 15 cm of soil
against radiations emitted at lower depths (EPA, 1993). Because risk coefficients for external
exposure to soil contaminated to 15 cm would differ only slightly from those for contamination to
an infinite depth, it would not be useful to provide tabulations of risk coefficients for both situations.
56
-------
CHAPTER 4. BIOKINETIC MODELS FOR RADIONUCLIDES
In the dose-computation scheme of the ICRP, information on the behavior of radionuclides
in the body is condensed into three main types of biokinetic models: a respiratory tract model, a
gastrointestinal tract model, and element-specific systemic models. The generic respiratory tract
model is used to describe the deposition and retention of inhaled material in the respiratory tract and
its subsequent clearance to blood or to the gastrointestinal tract. The generic gastrointestinal tract
model is used to describe the movement of swallowed or endogenously secreted material through
the .stomach and intestines, and, together with element-specific gastrointestinal absorption fractions
(fi values), to describe the rate and extent of absorption of radionuclides from the small intestine to
blood. Element-specific systemic biokinetic models are used to describe the time-dependent
distribution and excretion of radionuclides after their absorption into blood.
The respiratory tract
The ICRP recently introduced a new respiratory tract model that involves considerably
greater detail and physiological realism than previous models of the respiratory system (ICRP,
1994a). The model structure is shown in Fig. 4.1. The model divides the respiratory system into
extrathoracic (ET) and thoracic regions. The airways of the ET region are further divided into two
categories: the anterior nasal passages, in which deposits are removed by extrinsic means such as
nose blowing, and the posterior nasal passages including the nasopharynx, oropharynx, and the
larynx, from which deposits are swallowed. The airways of the thorax include the bronchi
(compartments labeled #8,-), bronchioles (compartments labeled bbt), and alveolar region
(compartments labeled AIt). Material deposited in the thoracic airways may be cleared into blood
by absorption, to the GI tract by mechanical processes (that is, transported upward and swallowed),
and to the regional lymph nodes via lymphatic channels.
The number of compartments in each region was chosen to allow duplication of the different
kinetic phases observed in humans or laboratory animals. In Fig. 4.1, particle transport rates shown
beside the arrows are reference values in units of d'1. For example, particle transport from bb, to BB,
is assumed to occur at a fractional rate of 2 d'1, and particle transport from ET2 to the gastrointestinal
tract is assumed to occur at a fractional rate of 100 d"1.
For an inhaled compound, the mechanical clearances of particles indicated in Fig. 4.1 are in
addition to dissolution rates and absorption to blood, which depend on the element and the chemical
57
-------
Sequestered in tissue
Anterior
nasal
Naso-oro-
pharynx
larynx
Extrathoracic
0.001
LN
ET
ET
SEQ
Thoracic
Surface transport
Bronchi
Bronchioles
Alveolar
Interstitium
Fig. 4.1. Structure of the ICRP's respiratory tract model (ICRP,
1994a). Except for ET] to environment, each of the indicated
mechanical clearances of particles is in addition to dissolution
and absorption to blood (see text). Abbreviations: AI = alveolar
interstitium, BB = bronchi, bb = bronchioles, ET = extrathoracic,
LN = lymph nodes, SEQ = sequestered, TH = thoracic.
and physical form in which it is inhaled. Although the model permits consideration of
compound-specific dissolution rates, a particulate is generally assigned to one of three default
absorption types: Type F (fast dissolution and a high level of absorption to blood), Type M (an
intermediate rate of dissolution and an intermediate level of absorption to blood), and Type S (slow
dissolution and a low level of absorption to blood). The fractional rate of absorption (cT1) assigned
to the default types are
Type F: 100 ,
Type M: 10.0 e -100 ' + S.OxlO'3 e -°-oos ' ,
Type S: 0.1 e "10° ' + l.OxlO"4 e ~0-0001 ' ,
58
-------
Ingestion
\>
where t is time (days) since deposition. Ideally, the user selects Type F, Type M, or Type S on the
basis of experimental data on compounds expected to be encountered in practice.
The gastrointestinal tract
The model of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract applied in this report has been used by the ICRP
for many years (ICRP, 1979,1995a, 1995b). The model, shown in Fig. 4.2, divides the GI tract into
four segments or compartments: stomach (St), small intestine (SI), upper large intestine (ULI), and
lower large intestine (LLI), and depicts first-order transfer of material from one segment to the next.
Material is assumed to transfer from St to 57 at the fractional rate of 24 d"1, from SI to ULI at 6 d"1,
from ULI to LLI at 1.8 d'1, and from LLI to feces at 1 d'1.
Absorption of ingested material to
blood generally is assumed to occur only in 57.
Absorption to blood is described in terms of a
fraction /}. In the absence of radioactive
decay, the fraction /; of ingested material
moves from 57to BLOOD and the fraction \-fj
moves from 57 to ULI and eventually is
excreted in feces. The transfer coefficient
from 57to BLOOD is 6f} I (I-/;) d"1.
Most of the// values used in this report
are taken from the ICRP's recent series of
documents on intakes of radionuclides by
members of the public (ICRP, 1989, 1993,
1995a, 1995b, 1996). In those documents,
different/} values are applied in some cases to ingested forms of a radionuclide and inhaled forms
that are subsequently cleared from the respiratory tract to the stomach.
Six of the elements considered in the internal exposure scenarios in this report were not
addressed in the ICRP documents on intakes of radionuclides by members of the public (Sc, Y, La,
Bi, Ac, Pa). In lieu of recommendations concerning environmental intakes of these elements, /}
values for the adult are taken from the ICRP's most recently published document on occupational
exposures (ICRP, 1994b), and/} values for infants and children are based on a default approach
applied hi ICRP Publication 69 (ICRP, 1995a) for intakes of radionuclides by members of the public.
For present purposes, that default approach consists of the following rules: the/; value for adults
Fig. 4.2. Model of transit of material through
the gastrointestinal tract (ICRP, 1979).
59
-------
is applied to ages ^1 y; if/} for adults is ^0.002, then/} for infants is 10 times the value for adults;
and if// for adults is in the range 0.01-0.5, then/} for infants is 2 times the value for adults.
The/} values used here for ingestion and inhalation are listed in Tables 4.1a and 4.1b,
respectively. For ages intermediate to those indicated in Table 4.la and in the footnotes to Table
4.1b, (that is, from infant to 1 y and from 15 y to mature adulthood), the transfer coefficient from
57to BLOOD (which is derived from/} as described earlier) is interpolated linearly with age. The
/} values as well as other biokinetic parameter values for "infant" apply to ages 0-100 days.
Biokinetic parameter values are assumed to vary with age up to age 20 y for some elements (e.g.,
Fe, Cs, I) and up to age 25 y for others (e.g., Ca, Ra, Pu) and to be constant thereafter.
Systemic biokinetic models
The sources of the systemic biokinetic models used in this report are given in Table 4.2.
Most of the models are taken from the ICRP's recent series of documents on age-dependent
dosimetry for internal emitters (ICRP, 1989, 1993, 1995a, 1995b, 1996). However, six of the
elements considered here (Sc, Y, La, Bi, Ac, and Pa) were not addressed in that series. The elements
Sc, Y, La, and Bi are assigned the systemic biokinetic models recommended in ICRP Publication
30 (1979, 1980, 1981, 1988), which addresses occupational exposure to radionuclides. For
consistency with other actinide elements considered in this document, the ICRP's generic model
structure for bone-surface-seeking elements (ICRP, 1993) is applied to Ac and Pa. Parameter values
for Am are assigned to Ac and parameter values for Th are assigned to Pa, due mainly to similarities
in the biokinetics of these element pairs in laboratory animals (Hamilton, 1948; Durbin, 1960;
Taylor, 1970; Ralston, et al., 1985). External measurements as well as bioassay measurements on
workers accidentally exposed to isotopes of Ac and Pa also provide some support for the models
selected here for these two elements (Newton, 1966; Newton and Brown, 1974).
With regard to model structure, the systemic biokinetic models used in this report may be
divided into two main classes, referred to here as "retention models" and "physiologically based
models".
A retention model is not intended as a biologically realistic depiction of actual paths of
movement of a radionuclide in the body; rather, it is a mathematically convenient representation of
the estimated inventories of the radionuclide in its major repositories as a function of time after its
initial entry into blood. The initial distribution of activity leaving blood is represented by
compartment-specific deposition fractions, and subsequent time-dependent inventories in the
compartments are described in terms of compartment-specific biological removal half-times.
60
-------
Material leaving a tissue compartment is assumed either to move directly to excretion or to move
to excretion via an excretion pathway such as the contents of the urinary bladder or the
gastrointestinal tract.
61
-------
Table 4.1a. Gastrointestinal absorption fractions (/} values) for ingestion of radionuclides.a>b
Element
H
C
S
Ca
So
Fe
Co
Ni
Zn
Se
Sr
Y
Zr
Nb
Mo
Tc
Ru
Ag
Sb
Infant
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.001
0.6
0.6
0.1
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.001
0.02
0.02
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
Age (y)
1-15 y
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.4
0.0001
0.3
0.3
0.05
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.0001
0.01
0.01
1.0
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.1
Adult
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.3
0.0001
0.2
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.8
0.3
0.0001
0.01
0.01
1.0
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.1
Kerer
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ence
1989
1989
1993
1995b
c
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
1995a
1993
,1993
1993
1995a
1993
c
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
1989
1989
1993
1993
1993
1993
1995a
Element
Te
I
Cs
Ba
La
Ce
Pb
Bi
Po
Ra
Ac
Th
Pa
U
Np
Pu
Am
Cm
Infant
0.6
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.005
0.005
0.6
0.1
1.0
0.6
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.04
0.005
0.005
0.005
0.005
Age (y)
1-15 y
0.3
1.0
1.0
0.3
0.0005
0.0005
0.4
0.05
0.5
0.3
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
0.02
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
Adult
0.3
1.0
1.0
0.2
0.0005
0.0005
0.2
0.05
0.5
0.2
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
0.02
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
rvoitsu
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
c
ICRP,
ICRP,
c
ICRP,
ICRP,
c
siiue
1993
1989
1989
1993
1993
1993
1993
1993
ICRP, 1995a
c
ICRP, 1995a
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
1993
1993
1993
ICRP, 1995b
"This document follows the recommendations in the ICRP Publication 56 series (ICRP, 1989, 1993, 1995a, 1995b,
1996) on exposures of the public. That series does not recommend separate fi values for food and water. While there
is some experimental evidence of differential absorption of certain radionuclides from food and water, the data are not
definitive.
'Values for ages between infancy (100 d) and 1 y and between 15 y and adulthood are derived by interpolation with age.
°Value for adult taken from ICRP Publication 68 (1994b). Values for infants and children based on default approach
of ICRP (1995a), described in the text.
62
-------
Table 4.1b. Gastrointestinal absorption fractions (/} values) for inhalation of radionuclides.a>b
Element
H
C
S
Ca
Sc
Fe
Co
Ni
Zn
Se
Sr
Y
Zr
Nb
Mo
Tc
Ru
Ag
Sb
Absorption Type
F
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.3
c
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.5
0.8
0.3
0.0001
0.002
0.01
0.8
0.8
0.05
0.05
0.1
M
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.1
0.0001
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0001
0.002
0.01
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0.01
S
1.0
1.0
0.01
0.01
0.0001
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
c
0.01
0.0001
0.002
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Reference
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1994b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1994b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
Element
Te
I
Cs
Ba
La
Ce
Pb
Bi
Po
Ra
Ac
Th
Pa
U
Np
Pu
Am
Cm
Absorption Type
F
0.3
1.0
1.0
0.2
0.001
0.0005
0.2
0.05
0.1
0.2
0.001
0.0005
0.001
0.02
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
M
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.001
0.0005
0.1
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.001
0.0005
0.001
0.02
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
S
0.01
c
c
0.01
0.001
0.0005
0.01
0.05
0.01
0.01
0.001
0.0005
0.001
0.002
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
0.0005
Reference
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
ICRP,
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1994b
1995b
1995b
1994b
1995b
1995b
1994b
1995b
1994b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
1995b
"This document follows the recommendations in ICRP Publication 71 (ICRP, 1995b) on exposures of the public. That
report recommends f, values for material cleared from the respiratory system to the stomach that differ in some cases
from values recommended for ingested food and water.
bThe tabulated f, values are for adults. Modification of these values for application to infants is explained in the text.
The value for the adult is applied at ages 1 y and older with the exceptions that for Type F forms of Ca, Fe, Co, Sr, Ba,
Pb and Ra, the values applied to ages 1-15 y correspond to the data of Table 4.1a.
°Not applicable because this absorption type is not considered for this element.
63
-------
Table 4.2. Systemic biokinetic models used in this report.
Element
H
C
S
Ca
Sc
Fe
Co
Ni
Zn
Se
Sr
Y
Zr
Nb
Mo
Tc
Ru
Ag
Sb
ICRP Publication
56(1989)
56(1989)
67(1993)
71 (1995b)
30 (Part 3, 1981)
69 (1995a)
67(1993)
67 (1993)
67(1993)
69(1995a)
67 (1993)
30 (Part 2, 1980)
67(1993)
56(1989)
67(1993)
67(1993)
56(1989)
67(1993)
69 (1995a)
Element
Te
I
Cs
Ba
La
Ce
Pb
Bi
Po
Ra
Ac
Th
Pa
U
Np
Pu
Am
Cm
ICRP Publication
67(1993)
56(1989)
56(1989)
67(1993)
30 (Part 3, 1981)
67(1993)
67 (1993)
30 (Part 2, 1980)
67(1993)
67(1993)
a
69(1995a)
b
69(1995a)
67(1993)
67(1993)
67(1993)
71 (1995b)
"Assigned the biokinetic model for Am given in ICRP Publication 67 (1993).
bAssigned the biokinetic model for Th given in ICRP Publication 69 (1995a).
An example of the type of retention models used by the ICRP is the model for zirconium
originally described in ICRP Publication 30 (1979) and updated in ICRP Publications 56 (1989) and
67 (1993). The structure of this model is shown in Fig. 4.3. Parameter values were based largely
on observations of the behavior of zirconium in rats and mice. For all age groups, 50% of zirconium
leaving blood is assumed to deposit on bone surfaces and the remainder is assumed to be uniformly
64
-------
Blood
I
Bone
Surface
-t
I
Other
Urinary Bladder
Contents
Gi tract
Contents
Urine
Feces
Fig. 4.3. Structure of the ICRP's biokinetic
model for zirconium (ICRP, 1993).
distributed in the rest of the body, referred to
as Other. For the adult, zirconium is assumed
to be removed to excretion with a biological
half-time of 10,000 days. In the absence of
age-specific data on zirconium in humans, the
removal half-time from bone in children is
assumed to be proportional to the bone
turnover rate, which is considerably greater in
children than in adults; for example, a removal
half-time from bone to excretion pathways of
1000 days is applied to the 10-year-old child.
For all age groups, zirconium is assumed to be
removed from Other to excretion pathways
with a biological half-time of 7 days. Of
zirconium going to excreta, five-sixths is assigned tk the urinary bladder contents and one-sixth is
assigned to the contents of the upper large intestine. Generic models are used to describe removal
from the contents of the urinary bladder and the gastrointestinal tract to excretion (ICRP, 1993).
In the ICRP's documents on age-dependent dosimetry (ICRP, 1989, 1993, 1995a, 1995b,
1996), physiologically based models were used for radioisotopes of calcium, iron, strontium, iodine,
barium, lead, radium, thorium, uranium, neptunium, plutoniurn, americium, and curium. The model
.frameworks applied to these elements depict loss of material by specific excretion pathways,
feedback of material from organs to blood plasma, and certain physiological processes that are
known to influence the distribution and
translocation of the elements in the body.
Clearly, the degree of biological realism
incorporated into each of the models is limited
by practical considerations regarding the
amount and quality of information available to
determine actual paths of movement and
parameter values for specific elements.
The model for iodine (Fig. 4.4) is
essentially the same as that used in ICRP
Publication 30 (1979), except that parameter
values were extended to pre-adult ages. The Fig- 4.4. Structure of the ICRP's biokinetic
model for iodine (ICRP, 1989).
Uptake-
Blood
>
/
Urinary
Bladder
Contents
Thyroid
J,
Other
J,
GI Tract
Contents
65
-------
Fig. 4.5. Structure of the ICRP's biokinetic model for iron (ICRP, 1995a).
model structure is relatively simple compared with the other physiologically based models used in
the ICRP Publication 56 series. According to this model, iodine entering blood is taken up by the
thyroid or excreted in urine. It leaves the thyroid in organic form and is metabolized by the tissues
in the rest of the body. A portion of iodine leaving these tissues is excreted in feces and the
remainder is returned to blood in inorganic form and behaves the same as the original input to blood.
The model structure for iron is shown in Fig. 4.5. The model describes three main aspects
of iron metabolism: (1) the hemoglobin cycle, including uptake of transferrin-bound iron by the
erythroid marrow for incorporation into hemoglobin, subsequent appearance of iron in red blood
cells, uptake of old and damaged red blood cells by the reticuloendothelial system, and eventual
return of iron to plasma; (2) removal of transferrin-bound iron from plasma to the extravascular
spaces and return to plasma via the lymphatic system; and (3) uptake and retention of iron by the
66
-------
parenchymal tissues. The soft tissues include a pool of extravascular iron that exchanges rapidly
with plasma iron. Storage iron is divided among liver, spleen, red marrow, and other soft tissues.
Destruction of red blood cells is viewed as occurring in the red marrow. The liver is viewed as
consisting of two pools: a transit pool representing parenchymal tissues that exchange iron with
plasma, and a storage pool associated with the reticuloendothelial system. Excretion of iron is
depicted as occurring through exfoliation of skin, losses of plasma iron in urine, and leakage of red
blood cells into the intestines and subsequent removal in feces.
The ICRP's physiologically based models for bone-seeking elements were developed within
one of two generic model frameworks (Leggett 1992a, 1992b; ICRP, 1993), one designed for
application to a class of "calcium-like" or bone-volume-seeking elements such as strontium, radium,
and lead (Fig. 4.6), and the other designed for application to a class of "plutonium-like" or bone-
surface-seeking elements such as americium, neptunium, and thorium (see Appendix C). In contrast
to the treatment of bone-seeking radionuclides in ICRP Publication 30 (1979), the new bone models
account for the facts that bone-surface seekers are buried to a large extent in bone volume,
bone-volume seekers may have a significant residence time on bone surfaces, and elements from
both groups may be recycled to tissues to a significant extent after removal from their initial
repositories to blood plasma. The physiologically based systemic biokinetic model for thorium,
which is typical of bone-surface seekers, is described in detail in Appendix C.
Treatment of decay chain members formed in the body
Systemic biokinetic models for decay chain members formed in vivo are taken from the
ICRP's series on age-dependent dosimetry (ICRP, 1989,1993,1995a, 1995b, 1996) or, for elements
not addressed in that document, from ICRP Publication 30 (1979,1980,1981,1988). In most cases,
decay chain members produced in vivo are assigned the systemic biokinetic model of the parent (that
is, the radionuclide taken into the body). However, the following exceptions are made:
1. Iodine as a daughter of tellurium is assumed to be translocated at a fractional rate of 1000 d'1
to the transfer compartment in inorganic form and then to follow the same kinetics as iodine
introduced into blood as a parent radionuclide.
2. Xenon produced in vivo by decay of iodine is assumed to escape from the body without decay.
This assumption is carried over from ICRP Publication 30 (Part 1, 1979).
3. If the parent is an isotope of lead, radium, uranium, or thorium, then a radionuclide other than
a noble gas formed in soft tissues or on bone surfaces is assigned the characteristic biokinetics
of that radionuclide. That is, a radionuclide born either in soft tissues or on bone surfaces is
67
-------
Fig. 4.6. The ICRP's generic model structure for calcium-like elements
(ICRP, 1993). RBC = red blood cells, EXCH = exchangeable
bone volume, NONEXCH = nonexchangeable bone volume.
assumed to have the same biokinetics as if the radionuclide had been taken in as a parent
radionuclide. A radionuclide other than a noble gas formed in bone volume is assigned the
biokinetics of the parent. Noble gases produced in soft tissues and bone surfaces are assumed
to migrate from the body with a transfer coefficient of 100 d"1. Noble gases produced in
exchangeable and non-exchangeable bone volume are assumed to migrate from the body at
rates of 1.5 d'1 and 0.36 d'1, respectively.
Appendix C describes in detail the treatment of decay chain members produced in the body
after absorption of the parent radionuclide, 232Th, to blood.
Radionuclides produced in the respiratory tract are assumed to have the same kinetics as the
parent radionuclide while hi the respiratory tract. The rate of dissolution of the carrier of the
68
-------
radionuclide is assumed to control the rate of migration of inhaled radionuclides and their radioactive
progeny. An exception is made for 222Rn, which is assumed to escape from the body at a fractional
rate of 100 d"1 after its production in any segment of the respiratory tract.
Chain members produced in, or migrating to, the gastrointestinal tract after intake of the
parent radionuclide are assigned the gastrointestinal absorption fraction (/}) of the parent in most
cases. For consistency with the treatment of the systemic biokinetics of radionuclides formed in
vivo, exceptions are made if the parent radionuclide is an isotope of lead, radium, thorium, or
uranium. In these cases, fractional absorption of a chain member produced in vivo is assumed to be
the same as if that chain member had been taken in as a parent radionuclide.
Solution of the biokinetic models
The solver used in the DCAL computational system (Eckerman et al., to be published) to
track the time-dependent distribution of activity of the parent and the decay chain members in the
body is described elsewhere (Leggett et al., 1993).
Uncertainties in the biokinetic models
Quantification of uncertainties in the biological behavior of radionuclides in humans is a
complex problem that has received little attention in the literature. However, three major efforts to
characterize such uncertainties for environmentally or occupationally important radionuclides
currently are underway: the U.S. National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements
(NCRP) is preparing a report on the reliability of the models and dose coefficients of ICRP
Publication 30; the ICRP is preparing a report on the reliability of its models and dose coefficients
for members of the public; and the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) and the U.S.
NRC are preparing a joint report on the uncertainties in the biokinetic, dose, and risk models used
in probabilistic risk assessment codes for reactor releases.
The purpose of this section is to provide semi-quantitative descriptions of the expected
reliability of the ICRP's age-specific biokinetic models for selected radionuclides as central
estimators for the population. The discussion is based on a paper by Leggett et al. (to be published)
that summarizes work done by those authors as part of the uncertainty analyses of the NCRP, ICRP,
and CEC-NRC. Attention is restricted to a small set of environmentally important radionuclides that
serve to illustrate various levels of knowledge concerning biokinetics of radionuclides in humans:
3H as tritiated water (HTO), 60Co, 90Sr, 95Zr, 106Ru, 125Sb, 137Cs, 226Ra, and 239Pu. The paper by
69
-------
Leggett and coworkers focuses mainly on the age-specific systemic biokinetic models for these
radionuclides but provides a brief discussion of the uncertainties in the level of absorption of these
radionuclides from the gastrointestinal and respiratory tracts into the systemic circulation of the
adult.
The term "uncertainty" refers here to the level of knowledge of a central value for the
population, the quantity of interest for these calculations, and should not be confused with the
variability hi the biological behavior of a radionuclide in the population. Variability refers to the
range of values encountered in the population, that is, to quantitative differences between different
members of a population. For example, two healthy persons of the same age and gender may exhibit
considerably different gastrointestinal uptake or systemic retention of a given radionuclide. While
uncertainty and variability are distinct concepts, the variability in biokinetic or dosimetric
characteristics of individuals within a population is usually an important factor contributing to the
uncertainty in estimates of central values. This is because such variability complicates the problem
of identifying the central tendency of these characteristics in the population due to the small number
of observations generally available and the fact that subjects usually are not randomly selected from
the population of interest.
The uncertainty in a given biokinetic quantity is described here in semi-quantitative terms.
Specifically, the uncertainty is described as "low", "low to moderate", "moderate to high", or "high"
if the central value is judged to be known within a factor of 2, 2-3, 3-8, or >8, respectively (as
defined below). In the fairly common case in which it can be agreed by different experts only that
the uncertainty in a biokinetic quantity is somewhere between low (less than a factor of 2) and high
(at best an order of magnitude estimate), the uncertainty is described as "moderate".2
The level of confidence in the quantity of interest is first estimated in terms of subjective
lower and upper bounds, A and B, such that there is judged to be roughly a 90% probability that the
true but unknown central value is no less than A and no greater than B. The uncertainty is
characterized as low, low to moderate, moderate to high, or high if (B/A)A <2,2 <. (B/A) 2 < 3,
3
-------
approach provides a uniform method of characterizing uncertainties in biokinetic models that is
consistent with informal statements of uncertainty commonly made by researchers.
For most biokinetic endpoints (e.g., fractional absorption from the gastrointestinal tract or
integrated activity in a given organ), assignment of a level of uncertainty is based largely on the
quality and completeness of data on the behavior of the element and its physiological analogues in
humans and laboratory animals. High confidence in a biokinetic estimate for an element usually is
gained from the existence of reasonably complete, high-quality data on that element in human
subjects. Confidence decreases with decreasing quality and completeness of the data on humans or
with increasing reliance on surrogate information such as data on the behavior of the element in
laboratory animals or a chemical analogue of the element in humans. Confidence in estimates based
on surrogate data may be particularly low if the surrogate data have inherent weaknesses or if the
logical basis for surrogacy is weak.
Depending on the endpoint under consideration, assignment of a level of uncertainty may
also be heavily influenced by the radiological half-life or other physical constraints. For example,
uncertainties in the long-term biokinetics of zirconium is of little consequence when estimating the
integrated activity of 95Zr in bone because virtually no 95Zr atoms will remain in the body beyond
two years after intake due to the short radiological half-life of this radionuclide (64 d). Thus,
non-biokinetic considerations may lead to a much smaller range of uncertainty for some
radionuclides than examination of the biokinetic data alone might indicate.
Based on the considerations described above, each of the selected radionuclides was
evaluated with regard to: (1) the fraction of ingested activity reaching blood, assuming ingestion of
typical environmental forms of a radionuclide by members of the public; (2) the fraction of inhaled
activity reaching blood, assuming inhalation of typical environmental forms of a radionuclide; and
(3) the 50-year integrated activity in selected organs, assuming injection of a radionuclide into blood.
The first two items were evaluated for a typical adult, and the third item was evaluated for a typical
child of age 5 years as well as for a typical adult.
Conclusions drawn for the adult are summarized in Table 4.3. With regard to fractional
absorption from the gastrointestinal tract as well as the subsequent behavior of absorbed activity,
uncertainties were judged to be low for 3H (as tritiated water), 90Sr, and 137Cs, in view of the
extensive measurements that have been made of uptake and retention of tritium, strontium, and
cesium in healthy human subjects (ICRP, 1989, 1993). Predictions for 125Sb were judged to be
highly uncertain due to the paucity of data on the behavior of antimony in humans and the
substantial inconsistencies in findings for laboratory animals (ICRP, 1995a). Fractional absorption
of 95Zr from the gastrointestinal tract in humans was judged to be highly uncertain because uptake
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Table 4.3. Semi-quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in selected biokinetic
models of the ICRP as central estimators for healthy adults.3
Radionuclide
Uncertainty in fraction
of ingested activity
absorbed
Uncertainty in
fraction of inhaled
activity absorbed
Uncertainty in 50-y integrated
activity in selected organs after
injection into blood
3H (HTO)
"'Co
*>Sr
95Zr
106Ru
125Sb
137Cs
226Ra
239pu
low
moderate
low
high
moderate
high
low
moderate
moderate
low
moderate
moderate
high
high
moderate
low
moderate
moderate
low (total body)
low to moderate (liver)
low (bone)
moderate to high (bone)
moderate to high (total body)
high (liver)
low (total body)
low to moderate (bone)
low to moderate (bone surface)
"Based on methods and conclusions of Leggett et al. (to be published).
data on this element are available only for rats, which have sometimes proved to be unreliable
models for humans with regard to uptake of metals. The uncertainty in fractional absorption of the
other elements was judged to be moderate. With regard to the integrated activity in the main
repository after injection into blood, the uncertainty was judged to be low to moderate for 60Co,
226Ra, and 239Pu and moderate to high for 95Zr and 106Ru.
For many radionuclides, fractional absorption of inhaled activity can be estimated only
within fairly wide bounds for typical environmental exposures. The main difficulty is that fractional
absorption of an inhaled element depends strongly on the physical and chemical form of the carrier
(ICRP, 1994a), which, for many elements, cannot be characterized with much confidence. Of the
elements addressed here, tritium (as tritiated water) and cesium are reasonably well understood with
regard both to characterization of environmental forms and absorption of those forms from the
respiratory tract to blood. At least two of the elements, zirconium and ruthenium, appear to be
poorly understood in both regards. With regard to fractional absorption of inhaled activity, the
uncertainty was judged to be low for 3H and 137Cs, high for 95Zr and 106Ru, and moderate for the
other five radionuclides.
With regard to the 50-year integrated activity in selected organs (the same organs as
considered for the adult; see the last column of Table 4.3) after injection of a radionuclide into blood
72
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of a 5-year-old child, the uncertainty was judged to be low for 137Cs; low to moderate for ^H. (as
HTO), 90Sr, and 226Ra; moderate to high for 239Pu; and high for 60Co, 95Zr, 10(Ru, and 12fSb.
Absorption from the gastrointestinal and respiratory tracts to blood in children was not evaluated.
The semi-quantitative assessments described above provide a useful starting point for
addressing the previously neglected problem of characterizing the uncertainties in the ICRP's
biokinetic models. In view of the work in progress by the NCRP, CEC, NRC, and ICRP, it seems
likely that more quantitative assessments of uncertainty may soon be available for a number of
environmentally and occupationally important radionuclides.
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CHAPTER 5. DOSIMETRIC MODELS FOR INTERNAL EMITTERS
The dosimetric methodology used in this report is that of the ICRP and is generally consistent
with the schema of the Medical Internal Radiation Dose Committee (MIRD) of the U.S. Society of
Nuclear Medicine (Loevinger et al., 1988). The methodology considers two sets of anatomical
regions within the body. A set of "source regions" is used to specify the location of radioactivity
within the body. A set of "target regions" consists of those organs and tissues for which the
radiation dose may be calculated.
Both the ICRP and MIRD consider the mean absorbed dose to a target region as the
fundamental dosimetric quantity. The principal biological effect of interest in radiation protection,
cancer induction, is cellular in origin, and the mean dose in a target is relevant to the extent that dose
is representative of the dose to the cells at risk. The cells at risk are assumed to be uniformly
distributed in the target region. Thus, the mean dose is assumed to be the relevant quantity.
The source regions selected for a given application consist of explicitly identified anatomical
regions and an implicit region, referred to as Other, defined as the complement of the set of
explicitly identified regions. The radioactivity in each source region is assumed to be uniformly
distributed. For most regions the distribution is by volume, but for mineral bone regions and the
airways of the respiratory tract the distribution may be by surface area. For all target regions, the
relevant quantity is the mean energy absorbed in the target volume averaged over the mass of the
target.
A full list of source and target regions currently used by the ICRP is given in Table 5.1. The
names of most source or target regions adequately identify the associated organs or tissues of the
body, but additional explanation is needed for some regions, such as Body Tissues, Other, and Bone
Surface. These and other special source and target regions are defined in Appendix B.
The esophagus is a radiosensitive tissue but has not yet been incorporated explicitly into the
mathematical phantom used for internal dosimetric calculations. At present, the dose calculated for
the target region Thymus is applied to the esophagus.
Age-dependent masses of source and target regions
With the exception of Urinary Bladder Contents, masses of source and target regions in
children are taken from the phantom series of Cristy and Eckerman (1987), and values for the adult
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Table 5.1. Source and target organs used in internal dosimetry methodology.
Organ or Tissue
Adrenals
Blood
Brain
Breasts
Gall Bladder Contents
Gall Bladder Wall
Heart Contents
Heart Wall
Kidneys
Liver
Muscle
Ovaries
Pancreas
Skin
Spleen
Testes
Thymus
Thyroid
Urinary Bladder Contents
Urinary Bladder Wall
Uterus
Body Tissues
Soft Tissues of Body Tissues
Other
Source Region
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Target
Region
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
76
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Table 5.1, continued
Organ or Tissue
Skeleton:
Bone Surface
Cortical Bone Surface
Cortical Bone Volume
Trabecular Bone Surface
Trabecular Bone Volume
Red Marrow
Gastrointestinal Tract:
Stomach Contents
Stomach Wall
Small Intestine Contents
Small Intestine Wall
Upper Large Intestine Contents
Upper Large Intestine Wall
Lower Large Intestine Contents
Lower Large Intestine Wall
Respiratory Tract:
Extrathoracic Region 1 - Surface
Extrathoracic Region 1 - Basal Cells
Extrathoracic Region 2 - Surface
Extrathoracic Region 2 - Bound
Extrathoracic Region 2 - Sequestered
Extrathoracic Region 2 - Basal Cells
Lymph Nodes - Extrathoracic Region
Bronchial Region - Gel (Fast Mucus)
Bronchial Region - Sol (Slow Mucus)
Bronchial Region - Bound
Bronchial Region - Sequestered
Bronchial Region - Basal Cells
Bronchial Region - Secretory Cells
Bronchiolar Region - Gel (Fast Mucus)
Bronchiolar Region - Sol (Slow Mucus)
Bronchiolar Region - Bound
Bronchiolar Region - Sequestered
Bronchiolar Region - Secretory Cells
Alveolar-Interstitial Region
Lymph Nodes - Thoracic Region
Source Region
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Target
Region
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
77
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male are taken from the Reference Man document (ICRP Publication 23,1975). Masses of Urinary
Bladder Contents are based on data assembled for the revision of Reference Man and are intended
to represent the contents of the bladder averaged over the filling and voiding cycles (Cristy and
Eckerman, 1993).
For the adult female, regional masses are mostly reference values from ICRP Publication 23
but, where none are given, are scaled from those for the reference adult male. Masses for the target
region Bone Surface or for source regions within mineral bone of the adult female are taken as 75%
of the values for males. For Urinary Bladder Contents and Urinary Bladder Wall, values for the
15-y-old male are applied to the adult female.
Age-specific masses of source and target regions are listed in Appendix B.
Dosimetric quantities
The mean energy absorbed in the target region depends on the nature of the radiations
emitted in the source regions, the spatial relationships between the source and target regions, and the
nature of the tissues between the regions. The details of these considerations are embodied in a
radionuclide-specific coefficient called the specific energy or SE.
For any radionuclide, source organ S, and target organ T, the specific energy at age t is
defined as
MM)
i E. AF((T«-S;t) ,
(5.1)
where Y, is the yield of radiations of type i per nuclear transformation, E, is the average or unique
energy of radiation type i, AF, (T<-S;f) is the fraction of energy emitted in source region S that is
absorbed within target region T at age t, and M-tf) is the mass of target region T at age t. The age
dependence in SE arises from the age dependence of the absorbed fraction and the mass of the target
region. The quantity AF, (T-S;f) is called the absorbed fraction (AF), and when divided by the mass
of the target region, MT, is called the specific absorbed fraction (SAF).
Whether one is interested in equivalent dose to a region, effective dose, or assessment of risk,
the basic quantity to be computed is the absorbed dose rate at various times. The dose rate in target
region T includes contributions from each radionuclide in the body and from each region in which
radionuclides are present. The absorbed dose rate at age t in region T of an individual of age t0 at
the time of intake, 6 j(t,t0), can be expressed as
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= c
EE
s i
(5.2)
where qsj(t) is the activity of radionuclidey present in source region S at age t, SE(T<-S;f)jis the
specific energy deposited in target region Tper nuclear transformation of radionuclidey in source
region S at age t, and c is any numerical constant required by the units of q and SE.
The following shorthand terminology is sometimes used: "photons" for x radiation, gamma
radiation, and annihilation quanta; "electrons" for p+ particles, P- particles, internal conversion
electrons, and Auger electrons; and "alphas" for alpha particles and alpha recoil nuclei.
Nuclear decay data
In Eq. 5.1, there are two terms from the nuclear decay data: Y, is the yield of radiations of
type i per nuclear transformation, and E, is the average or unique energy of radiation type z. The
radiations that contribute the overwhelming majority of the energy per nuclear transformation are
tabulated in ICKP Publication 38 (1983) and in a MIRD publication (Weber et al., 1989).
The decay data files in the DCAL computational system include the beta spectra (Eckerman
et al., 1994). The beta spectra files are used in the dosimetry for the ICRP's new respiratory tract
model. For other organs, only the average energy of each beta transition is used.
The nuclear decay data files include the kinetic energies of each emitted alpha particle but
not the corresponding kinetic energies of the recoiling nucleus. The recoil energy Er for an alpha
transition is computed as
4.0026 Ea
A - 4
(5.3)
where Ea is the kinetic energy of the alpha particle, A is the mass number of the nuclide, and 4.0026
is the atomic mass of an alpha particle.
Specific absorbed fractions for photons
Photon SAFs are derived from radiation transport calculations in anthropomorphic phantoms
representing newborn, 1 y, 5 y, 10 y, 15-y-old male, and adult male (with breasts, ovaries, and uterus
79
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Fig. 5.1. Illustration of phantoms used to derive age-dependent
specific absorbed fractions for photons.
added). These phantoms are illustrated in Fig. 5.1. In this report, the specific absorbed fractions for
the adult male are also applied to the adult female.
The specific absorbed fractions are tabulated for 12 energies between 10 keV and 4 MeV.
SAFs at intermediate energies are calculated by interpolating linearly between energies. Photons of
energy below 10 keV are treated as nonpenetrating radiations for most regions and are considered
to be absorbed in the source region. For bone dosimetry and for sources in the contents of walled
organs (e.g., stomach), the dosimetry for photons is analogous to that described below for electrons.
Absorbed fractions for electrons
The kinetic energy of electrons is assumed to be absorbed entirely in the source region,
except when the source is in part of the skeleton or when the source is in the contents of a walled
organ. Thus, for solid regions,
I, ifT=S
AF(T<-S',t) = \ 0> ifT*S and S*BT
MT/ MttT, ifS=BT
(5.4)
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where BT(Body Tissues) indicates the systemic tissues of the body. Note that if the source region
is Body Tissues of mass MBT, then the fraction of the Body Tissues activity in the target region is
Mj/MBr, to which an absorbed fraction of 1 is applied.
Appendix B lists absorbed fractions for beta-emitters for cases in which the source organ and
target organ are both in bone (ICRP, 1979). The values are assumed to be independent of age.
For contents of walled organs, it is assumed that the dose to the wall is the dose at the surface
of a half-space, or half the equilibrium dose to the contents. Thus, the specific absorbed fraction is
0.5
M
(5.5)
where Mcont is the mass of the contents of the walled organ.
Absorbed fractions for alpha particles and recoil nuclei
For alpha particles and alpha recoil nuclei, the radiation is assumed to be absorbed entirely
in the source region, except when the source is in part of the skeleton or when the source is in the
contents of a walled organ. Equation 5.4 applies to all solid regions.
Appendix B lists absorbed fractions for alpha-emitters for cases in which the source and
target organ are both in bone (ICRP, 1979). The values are assumed to be Independent of age. For
a source in a bone surface or bone volume compartment and a target consisting either of Bone
Surface or Red Marrow, there is assumed to be no contribution to SE from alpha recoils.
The assumptions of ICRP Publication 30 are applied to contents of walled organs. That is,
for application to alpha particles, the right side of Eq. 5.5 is multiplied by 0.01 to account for the
reduced alpha dose to radiosensitive cells in the wall, and an absorbed fraction of zero is applied to
alpha recoil nuclei. As discussed later, the value 0.01 is not based on calculations of energy
deposition but is a cautiously high value based on comparative studies of radiogenic effects from
alpha and beta emitters in the gastrointestinal tracts of rats.
Spontaneous fission
Spontaneous fission occurs in the decay of some isotopes of U, Pu, Cm, Bk, Cf, and Es and
results in the emission of photons, electrons, and neutrons, as well as fission fragments.
Spontaneous fission products have not yet been incorporated into the internal dosimetry
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methodology. However, for radionuclides with spontaneous fission that are addressed in this report,
this decay mode represents a relatively small portion of the total emitted energies.
Computation of SE
Within the DCAL computational system (Eckerman et al., to be published), the SEs are
computed by the module SEECAL (Cristy and Eckerman, 1993). These SE calculations are based
on nuclear decay data files, libraries of specific absorbed fractions for non-penetrating radiations and
photons, and age-specific organ masses. The nuclear decay data files and specific absorbed fractions
are those currently used by the ICRP (Cristy and Eckerman 1987,1993). Organ masses for adults
are taken from ICRP Publication 23 (1975). For children, age-specific organ masses are taken from
the phantoms of Cristy and Eckerman (1987), which are based on data from ICRP Publication 23.
Uncertainties in the internal dosimetric models
SEs for photons
There are two principal computational procedures available for estimating specific absorbed
fractions for photon emissions: the Monte Carlo method of simulation of radiation transport and the
point-source kernel method. Both of these methods may involve significant sources of error,
depending on the energy and the organs under consideration. An examination of the advantages and
disadvantages of these two very different methods, together with a comparison of predictions of the
two methods for various situations, provides insight into the uncertainties in SEs for photons and
ways to minimize those uncertainties.
The Monte Carlo method is a computerized approach for estimating the probability of a
photon interaction within target organ T after emission from source organ S. This method is carried
out for all combinations of source and target organs and for several photon energies. The body is
represented by an idealized phantom in which the internal organs are assigned masses, shapes,
positions, and attenuation coefficients based on their chemical composition. Hypothetical
interactions of numerous photons emanating in randomly chosen directions from points in the source
organ are recorded as the photon travels through tissues and escapes from the body or loses its
energy. This approach can produce significant statistical errors in situations where few interactions
are expected to occur, such as cases involving low initial energies or target organs which are
relatively small or remote from important sources of activity.
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The second procedure for estimating specific absorbed fractions for photon emissions
involves integration of a point-source kernel fy(x), where x is the distance from the point source. The
function
-------
radiation types it is generally assumed that SAF(S,S) is the inverse of the mass of organ S, and if
source S and target T are separated, SAF(T,S) = 0. Exceptions occur when the source and target are
in close proximity, which can occur in the respiratory tract or in the skeleton.
In the respiratory tract, there are narrow layers of radiosensitive basal and secretory cells in
the epithelium. These are irradiated to some extent by beta particles and discrete electrons
emanating from nearby "source organs", including the gel layer, the sol layer, and other identified
compartments within the epithelium.
The skeleton is generally represented as a uniform mixture of its component tissues: cortical
bone, trabecular bone, fatty marrow, red marrow, and connective tissues. Tissues of interest for
dosimetric purposes are the red marrow, which lies within the generally tiny cavities of trabecular
bone, and osteogenic cells adjacent to the surfaces of both cortical and trabecular bone. For the red
marrow the pertinent dose is assumed to be the average dose to the marrow space within trabecular
bone. For the osteogenic tissue, the ICRP recommends that the equivalent dose be calculated as an
average over tissues up to a distance of 10 |j,m from the relevant bone surface.
In the vicinity of discontinuities in tissue compositions such as that between bone mineral
and soft tissues, the assumption that the skeleton is a uniform mixture of its component tissues can
lead to sizable errors hi estimates of dose from beta particles and discrete electrons, as well as
photons. For example, neglect of energy transferred to electrons by photon interactions in these
regions can result in overestimates of dose to bone marrow by as much as 300-400% for photon
energies less than 100 keV. Similarly, conventional methods for treating beta emissions in the
skeleton may substantially overestimate the dose to soft tissues of the skeleton. With regard to the
ICRP's SE values, this problem was recently addressed with regard to photons (Cristy and Eckerman,
1993) but conventional methods are still used for treatment of beta emissions.
SEs for alpha particles
The energy of alpha particles and their associated recoil nuclei is generally assumed to be
absorbed in the source organ. Therefore, for alpha particles, SAF(S,S) is taken to be the inverse of
the mass of the source organ S, and SAF(T,S) = 0 if S and T are separated.
If an alpha emitter is uniformly distributed on the surface of trabecular bone then, by simple
geometric considerations, the absorbed fraction in the marrow space is one half. Lacking
information on the location of the hematopoietic stem cells, the ICRP assumes that the cells are
uniformly distributed within the marrow space. If the sensitive cells were located more than 10 um
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from the bone mineral surface, the relevant absorbed fraction would be reduced to 0.23-0.34 for an
alpha emitter with energy in the range 5-8 MeV.
For an alpha emitter uniformly distributed in the mineral of trabecular bone, the absorbed
fraction in the red marrow depends on the energy of the alpha particle. Calculations for alpha
emitters ranging hi energy from 5 to 8 MeV indicate that the absorbed fraction in the marrow space
ranges between 0.041 and 0.087, which bracket the value of 0.05 recommended by the ICRP. If the
sensitive cells were located more than 10 um from the bone mineral surface, the relevant absorbed
fraction would be reduced to 0.015-0.055. Thus, dose estimates to skeletal tissues for alpha emitters
are sensitive to assumptions regarding the spatial relationship between the source and target regions.
For an alpha emitter uniformly distributed in bone mineral, estimates of the absorbed fraction
in bone surface ranges from less than 0.02 to more than 0.03, depending on the energy of the alpha
particle. The nominal value recommended by the ICRP is 0.025.
Special dosimetric problems presented by walled organs
The so-called "walled organs" of the body are the parts of the gastrointestinal tract and the
bladder in which the radionuclide may be present in the contents of the organ. In the case of beta
radiation, it is assumed that the dose to the wall of the organ is equivalent to the dose at the surface
of the contents. For beta particles of low energy this approach overestimates the dose to the wall and
to the cells associated with maintaining the epithelial lining of the wall. For alpha radiations the
dose to the wall is taken as 1% of the dose at the surface of the contents. This value is not based on
calculations of energy deposition but is a cautiously high value based on an acute toxicity study on
rats (Sullivan et al., 1960). In this study, the LD50 for ingested 91Y was estimated as about 12 Gy
while a more than 100-fold greater dose to the mucosal surface from 239Pu had no effect. Continued
use of the presumably cautious dosimetry for walled organs is due in part to concerns that some
radioelements may be retained in the walls of these organs to a greater extent than commonly
modeled. Also, with regard to the intestines, considerable difficulties are encountered in defining
the appropriate geometry of the convoluted wall and the contents of this organ.
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CHAPTER 6. DOSIMETRIC MODELS FOR EXTERNAL EXPOSURES
Three external exposure scenarios are considered in this report: submersion in a semi-infinite
cloud, exposure to ground surface contamination, and exposure to soil contaminated to an infinite
depth. Persons are assumed to be exposed throughout their lifetimes to a unit concentration of the
radionuclide in air, on the ground surface, or in soil.
Dose rate coefficients from external exposure are taken from Federal Guidance Report No.
12 (EPA, 1993), which tabulates coefficients for external exposure to photons and electrons. The
coefficients are based on state-of-the-art methods for calculating the energy and angular distribution
of the radiations incident upon the body and the transport of these radiations within the body.
Tabulations in Federal Guidance Report No. 12 are for a reference adult, as defined in ICRP
Publication 23. Calculations were based on the 70-kg phantom of Cristy (Cristy and Eckerman,
1987), with two modifications: (1) the head region was made more realistic by including a neck and
shortening the right elliptical cylinder comprising the lower portion of the head; and (2) a model of
the esophagus was added.
Although there is expected to be some age dependence in organ dose rates from external
exposures, comprehensive tabulations of age-specific external doses are not yet available. Therefore,
the tabulations for the reference adult in Federal Guidance Report No. 12 are applied to all age
groups. As discussed later, the application of these external dose coefficients to other age groups
appears to result in relatively small errors (usually <30%) in most cases. In extreme cases, such as
for external irradiation of deep organs (e.g., ovaries or colon) of infants at energies less than 100 keV
energies, 2- to 3-fold errors may arise. In applications of the derived risk coefficients, however,
errors arising from application of age-independent external dose rates are likely to be negligible
compared with errors associated with the simplified exposure scenarios used here (e.g., constant
placement and position, no shielding, and infinite or semi-infinite source regions). Simplified
exposure scenarios are used here because it is not feasible to develop an external dosimetric
methodology that applies to arbitrary distributions of contamination or to differences in life styles.
Interpretation of dose coefficients from Federal Guidance Report No. 12
Dose coefficients for external exposure relate the dose to organs and tissues of the body to
the concentration of radionuclides in environmental media. The term "external exposure" is used
to indicate that the radiations originate outside the body. The radiations of concern are those that
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are sufficiently penetrating to traverse the overlying tissues of the body and thus are limited to
photons, including bremsstrahlung, and electrons.
Because it is not feasible to develop an external dosimetric methodology that applies to
arbitrary distributions of radionuclides in environmental media, it has become common practice to
consider simplified and idealized exposure geometries. In particular, a semi-infinite source region
generally is assumed for submersion in contaminated air, and an infinite source region generally is
assumed for exposure to contaminated soil.
If one assumes an infinite or semi-infinite source region with a uniform concentration C(t)
of a radionuclide at time t, then the equivalent dose in tissue T, Hr, can be expressed as
dt
(6-1)
where hr denotes the time-independent dose coefficient for external exposure. The coefficient hr
represents the dose to tissue T of the body per unit time-integrated exposure (integrated
concentration of the radionuclide). That is,
hr =
(6.2)
dt
Alternatively, one may interpret hT as representing the instantaneous dose rate in organ T per unit
activity concentration of the radionuclide in the environment. Furthermore, since only low-LET
radiations are considered in the derivation of external dose coefficients, equivalent and absorbed
doses are numerically equal.
In Federal Guidance Report No. 12, hT is interpreted as the dose per unit time-integrated
exposure. In this report, however, h? is interpreted as a dose rate, because dose rates are required as
input into the radiation risk methodology applied here.
Nuclear data files used
The energies and intensities of the radiations emitted in spontaneous nuclear transformations
of radionuclides have been reported in Publication 38 of the International Commission on
Radiological Protection (ICRP, 1983). That publication is a report of the Task Group on Dose
Calculations of ICRP Committee 2 and was assembled at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
during the preparation of ICRP Publication 30 (ICRP, 1979). The nuclear decay data of ICRP
88
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Publication 38 are based on the Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data Files (ENSDF) (Ewbank and
Schmorak, 1978) of the Department of Energy's Nuclear Data Project as processed by the EDISTR
code (Dillman, 1980). The processed data files retained in the ICRP/ORNL dosimetric data base
include full tabulations of the average or unique energies and intensities of the radiations and also
the beta spectra (Eckerman et al., 1994). The dose coefficients for external irradiation given in
Federal Guidance Report No. 12 are based on these data files.
Radiations considered
For external exposures, the radiations of concern are those that are sufficiently penetrating
to traverse the overlying tissues of the body and deposit ionizing energy in radiosensitive organs and
tissues. Photons and electrons are the most important penetrating radiations produced by
radionuclides in the environment.
Some radionuclides produce bremsstrahlung that is sufficiently penetrating to be of potential
importance in the estimation of external dose. Bremsstrahlung, from the German for "braking
radiation", is produced when deceleration of electrons in a medium results in conversion of a small
fraction of their initial kinetic energy into energy in the form of photons. Bremsstrahlung energy
is distributed from zero up to the initial electron energy. The bremsstrahlung yield is small (about
0.5% at 1.0 MeV in tissue) but for pure beta emitters can be the only source of radiations of
sufficient penetrating nature to irradiate some radiosensitive tissues.
The types of radiations considered in Federal Guidance Report No. 12 are photons, including
bremsstrahlung, and electrons. The energy spectrum of emitted radiations can be characterized as
either (1) discrete emissions of a unique energy (e.g, gamma radiation), and (2) continuous energy
distribution of electrons as in the case of beta particles and bremsstrahlung. The beta spectra are used
hi Federal Guidance Report No. 12 to evaluate the contribution of the beta particles to the skin dose
and to determine the yield of bremsstrahlung.
Spontaneous fission occurs in the decay of several radionuclides in the actinide series and
results in the emission of photons, electrons, and neutrons, as well as fission fragments.
Spontaneous fission is an important decay mode for only a few radionuclides, e.g., 248Cm, 252Cf,
254Cf, and 256Fm. For these cases (none of which are considered in the present document), the dose
coefficients given in Federal Guidance Report No. 12 may considerably underestimate true doses
due to neglect of the contribution to dose from spontaneous fission in that document. However,
equivalent doses from external exposures associated with spontaneous fission usually will be
unimportant in dose assessments for members of the public, either because radionuclides with
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significant branching fractions for spontaneous fission will occur in relatively small concentrations
in the environment or because equivalent doses from internal exposure will be more important for
these nuclides.
Effects of indoor residence
The dose coefficients for air submersion and exposure to contaminated soil are taken from
Federal Guidance Report No. 12 (EPA, 1993). These dose coefficients assume that exposed
individuals spend all of the time outdoors. Depending on such factors as photon energy, type of
structure, fraction of time spent indoors, and degree of disequilibrium in the concentration of a
radionuclide in indoor and outdoor air, there could be a substantial reduction in the equivalent dose
from external exposures during indoor residence due to shielding by structures.
For noble-gas radionuclides, air submersion is the only external exposure mode of concern.
The effects of indoor residence on equivalent doses to skin due to electrons should be negligible
during chronic releases, unless the range of the emitted electrons in air is somewhat greater than the
interior dimensions of building rooms, because the indoor and outdoor air concentrations for noble
gases will be about the same.
A radionuclide-independent dose reduction factor is sometimes applied to external dose
coefficients to account for the effects of indoor residence (e.g., NRC, 1977). However, the average
reduction in external dose due to indoor residence depends on the radionuclide as well as other
factors indicated above and generally cannot be quantified with much certainty. In the present
document, the external dose coefficients given in Federal Guidance Report No. 12 are not reduced
to account for the effects of indoor residence.
Uncertainties in external dose models
Transport of radiation from the environmental source to humans
In Federal Guidance Report No. 12 (EPA, 1993), the problem of estimating external dose
rates from contaminated ah-, soil, or ground surfaces was divided into two steps: (1) the calculation
of the radiation field incident on the surface of the body; and (2) calculation of organ dose rates due
to a body surface source. The uncertainties associated with the second step are essentially the same
as those discussed in Chapter 5 with regard to internal radiation sources.
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The method of calculation of the external radiation field was checked as far as practical
against other theoretical methods or experimentally determined values (EPA, 1993). The results of
the comparisons suggest that the external radiation fields can be determined with reasonably high
accuracy, at least for the idealized geometries generally considered. For example, derived values
for the case of a contaminated ground source were checked by comparing the energy and angular
dependence of the air kerma above a 1.25 MeV plane source at the air-ground interface with
calculations of Beck and de Planque (1968) based on another method and with the calculations and
measurements given in the Shielding Benchmark Problems report (Garrett, 1968). Agreement was
within a few percent in both cases.
The largest differences between the modeled external radiation fields and real-world
situations probably arise from differences between the simplified exposure geometries and real
exposure geometries. An important example is exposure to contaminated ground surface, for which
the source region is assumed to be a smooth plane. In the real world, external dose rates from
sources on the ground surface generally are reduced by the shielding provided by "ground
roughness", including terrain irregularities and surface vegetation. Dose-reduction factors for a
photon spectrum representative of fallout following releases from nuclear reactors are given by
Burson and Profio (1977). The recommended values range from essentially unity for paved areas
to about 0.5 for a deeply plowed field, and a representative average value is about 0.7. Such
dose-reduction factors for ground roughness should overestimate equivalent doses due to external
exposure to contaminated ground surfaces if the radionuclides emit mostly low-energy photons
(Kocher, 1980).
Effects of shielding during indoor residence
The dose coefficients for air submersion and exposure to contaminated soil assume that
exposed individuals spend all of the time outdoors and have no shielding from the radiation (EPA,
1993). For the typical adult male considered in Federal Guidance Report No. 12, one of the largest
uncertainties in the external dose rates as applied in the present report is the question of whether a
uniform reduction factor, or possibly radionuclide-specific reduction factors, should be used to
account for shielding during indoor residence. In the present document, no reduction factors are
applied. This approach may be appropriate for some radionuclides (e.g., for some radioisotopes of
noble gases) but probably leads to a substantial overestimate of actual dose rates for external
exposures in many cases. It is left to the user to decide whether a reduction factor is appropriate for
a given application.
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For acute releases of radionuclides into the atmosphere, the relationship between indoor and
outdoor airborne concentrations of radionuclides will vary with time during and after a release and
will also depend strongly on the air exchange rate inside a building (Wallace, 1996). For such
releases, a fixed reduction of external dose rates to account for indoor residence would not appear
to be appropriate.
Effects of age and gender
The dose coefficients tabulated in Federal Guidance Report No. 12 were calculated for an
anthropomorphic model of the adult body derived by Cristy (Cristy and Eckerman, 1987) from ICRP
Reference Man data (ICRP, 1975). For all calculations, the phantom is upright at the air-ground
interface. The phantom is a hermaphrodite of design similar to that used in the dosimetric evaluation
of ICRP Publication 30 (ICRP, 1979).
Age- and gender-specific aspects of external dose have been considered by Drexler et al.
(1989) and Petoussi et al. (1991). Limited calculations indicate that the dose to organs of the body
from external radiation increases with decreasing body size. This effect is more pronounced at low
photon energy than at high energy and is also more pronounced for organs located deep in the body
than for more shallow organs with less shielding by overlying tissues.
Calculated effects of age on the
effective dose per unit photon fluence are
indicated in Fig. 6.1 for the case of photons
uniformly distributed in angle (isotropic field).
Estimates for intermediate ages fall between
the curves for the adult and infant. Similar
effects of age were calculated for the case of a
broad parallel horizontal beam uniformly
distributed about the phantom (rotational
normal beam). The isotropic field corresponds
to a photon source uniformly distributed in the
air (submersion) and the rotational normal
beam is similar to the situation in which the
photon source is distributed on the ground
surface. For both cases, the dependence of the effective dose on age increases at the low photon
energy and exceeds a factor of two at energies less that about 0.050 MeV. It is for low photon
£
o
W
o
o
c
O
0.1
CD
« I
o
HI
3.01 0.1 1
Photon energy (MeV)
Fig. 6.1. Estimated effects of age on effective dose
for photons uniformly distributed in angle.
92
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energies that the reduction in dose by shielding by buildings structures becomes increasingly
effective. Uncertainties associated with the use of age-independent external dose rates appear to be
overshadowed in most cases by uncertainties associated with shielding and exposure geometries.
93
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CHAPTER 7. RADIOGENIC CANCER RISK MODELS
Calculations of radiogenic risk are based on risk projection models for specific cancer sites.
The age- and gender-specific radiation risk models used in this report are taken from a recent EPA
report (EPA, 1994) that provides a methodology for calculation of radiogenic cancer risks based on
a critical review of data on the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and other study groups. Parameter
values in the models have been modified in some cases in the present report to reflect the use of
updated vital statistics for the U.S. and to achieve greater consistency in the assumptions made for
different age groups and genders. The following age-at-exposure groups are considered in the
models: 0-9,10-19,20-29, 30-39, and 40+ y.
Types of risk projection models
One of two basic types of radiogenic cancer risk projection models is used for a given cancer
site: an absolute risk model or a relative risk model. An absolute risk model is based on the
assumption that the age-specific excess force of mortality or morbidity (that is, the mortality or
morbidity rate for a given cancer type) due to a radiation dose is independent of cancer mortality or
morbidity rates in the population. A relative risk model is based on the assumption that the
age-specific excess force of mortality or morbidity due to a radiation dose is the product of an
exposure-age-specific relative risk coefficient and baseline cancer mortality or morbidity rate. In
this report, risk models for bone, skin, and thyroid cancer are based on an absolute risk hypothesis,
and risk models for other sites are based on a relative risk hypothesis.
In the absolute risk models used in this report, the absolute risk e(x,xe) at age x due to a unit
absorbed dose received at an earlier age xe (xe < x) is calculated as
= a(xe~)
(7.1)
where:
afye) is a non-negative number, called a "risk model coefficient", that depends on gender as
well as age at exposure; and
C(0 is either 0 or 1, depending on the time since exposure, t = x - xe.
The function a defines the potential level of risk of dying from or experiencing a given type of
cancer at any given age (and hence tune) after the dose is received, and C defines the plateau period,
that is, the time period during which the risk is expressed.
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In the relative risk models used in this report, e(x,xe) is calculated as e(x,xe) = \i(x) x
where u(x) is the baseline force of cancer mortality or morbidity at age x and Ti(x,xe) is the relative
risk at age x due to a unit absorbed dose received at age xe (xe < x); r\(x,xe) is calculated as
(7.2)
where
* ~~ ** * "g>
p(xe) is a non-negative number, called a "risk model coefficient", that depends on gender as
well as age at exposure; and
C(r,xe) is the relative magnitude of the response at different times after exposure at age xe.
For all cancers except leukemia, it is assumed that C is independent of the exposure age xe
and has a value of either 0 or 1, depending on the time since exposure, t = x - xe. The
time-sinee-exposure response function C(£*e) for either chronic granulocytic leukemia or for acute
leukemia is given by Cft*e) = 0 if te 2 y and C(Ue) = (|>(X,£(xe),02) if t > 2 y, where
exp( 0.5(ln(f-2) -
o2)
(f-2)(27C02)0-5
(7.3)
In this expression, the function £(*«,) and the value o2 depend on the type of leukemia. For chronic
granulocytic leukemia, 5(jce) = 2.68 and o2 =1.51. For acute leukemia, £(xe) = 1.61 + 0.0l5xe +
0.0005;te 2 and a2 = 0.65 (EPA, 1994). The total leukemia time since response function is a weighted
mean of the response function for chronic granulocytic leukemia, which is given a weight of 0.32,
and the response function for acute leukemia, which is given a weight of 0.68 (EPA, 1994).
The function p in Eq. 7.2 times the baseline force of cancer mortality or morbidity, n(x), at
a given age defines the potential level of risk of dying from or experiencing a given type of cancer
at that age, and C defines the period during which the risk is expressed and, in the case of leukemia,
the changes in the level of response during that period. Because the time since response function
for leukemia is scaled differently from the time since response functions for other cancers and has
a maximum value much less than 1, the risk model coefficients (age- and gender-specific values of
p) for leukemia are not directly comparable with the risk model coefficients for other cancers.
The term "risk coefficient" used in the EPA report on radiation risk models (EPA, 1994) has
been replaced here with the term "risk model coefficient" to avoid confusion with the radionuclide
risk coefficients tabulated in Chapter 2. The risk coefficients given in Chapter 2 refer to risk per unit
intake or external exposure to a specific radionuclide in a specific environmental medium.
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Epidemiological studies used in the development of risk models
The risk model coefficients given in the EPA report (EPA, 1994) were based in large part
on information from studies of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) Life Span Study
(LSS) cohort of Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors (Shimizu et al., 1989,1990). This
study has the advantages that it includes a large, relatively healthy population at the time of
exposure, a wide range of reasonably well established doses to individual subjects (although some
important dosimetric issues remain), a large, well matched control group (that is, people who were
present in Hiroshima or Nagasaki at the time of bombing but who received only small doses of
radiation), and a detailed, long-term epidemiological follow-up. A statistically significant excess
cancer mortality associated with radiation has been found among the bomb survivors for the
following types of cancer: leukemia, esophagus, stomach, colon, liver, lung, breast, ovary, urinary
tract, and multiple myeloma.
Results of other epidemiological studies on radiation-exposed populations were used for
development of risk models for a few sites for which the A-bomb survivor do not appear to provide
best available information on radiogenic risk. For example, risk models for the thyroid and breast
were based primarily on results of epidemiological studies of medical exposures of these organs.
For two other sites, bone and liver, low-LET risk estimates were extrapolated from results of
epidemiological studies of humans exposed to 224Ra and thorotrast, respectively (EPA, 1994),
together with data on comparative biological effectiveness of alpha and low-LET radiations in
laboratory animals. There are additional important epidemiological studies of persons exposed either
to low-LET or high-LET radiation, but the main use of these additional studies was for comparison
with results for the A-bomb survivors.
Modification of epidemiological data for
application to low doses and dose rates
All of the epidemiological studies used in the development of the radiation risk models
involve subjects who experienced high radiation doses delivered in a relatively short time. Available
evidence indicates that the response per unit dose at low doses and dose rates from low-LET
radiation may be overestimated if one extrapolates from observations made at high, acutely delivered
doses (NCRP, 1980). The degree of overestimation is commonly expressed in terms of a dose and
dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF): e.g., a DDREF of 2 means the risk per unit dose observed
at high acute doses should be divided by 2 before being applied to low doses or low dose rates. "Low
97
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dose" and "low dose rate" are defined here in terms of the range of applicability of a DDREF of 2;
"low dose" is defined as <0.2 Gy and "low dose rate" is defined as <0.1 mGy min'1 (UNSCEAR,
1993; EPA, 1994). For comparison, the ICRP (1991) used a DDREF of 2 in the calculation of
probability coefficients for all equivalent doses below 0.2 Gy and from higher doses resulting from
absorbed dose rates less than 0.1 Gy h'1 (about 1.7 mGy min'1).
In the EPA report on radiation risk models (EPA, 1994) and hence in the present report,
low-LET radiogenic cancer risks for sites other than the breasts are assumed to be reduced by a
DDREF of 2 at low doses and low dose rates compared to risks at high acute dose exposure
conditions. The DDREF assumed for breast cancer is 1. Risks from high-LET (alpha particle)
radiation are assumed to increase linearly with dose and to be independent of dose rate.
Relative biological effectiveness factors for alpha particles
With the exception of radiation-induced breast cancer and leukemia, the EPA has followed
the ICRP's recommendation (ICRP, 1991) and assumed that the relative biological effectiveness
(RBE) for alpha particles is 20, in comparison to low-LET radiation at low doses and dose rates
(EPA, 1994). For leukemia, an effective alpha particle RBE of 1 is used (see discussion of
uncertainties of RBE). For breast cancer, an alpha particle RBE of 10 is used.
Where comparison was made in the EPA report (EPA, 1994) against acute high doses of
low-LET radiation, a value of 10 was assumed for the alpha particle RBE. This is consistent with
the RBE of 20 relative to acute, low-dose, low-LET radiation, given the assumption of a DDREF
of 2 for low-LET radiation at low doses and dose rates.
Risk model coefficients for specific organs
Age- and gender-specific risk model coefficients used in this report are summarized in Table
7.1 for cancers other than leukemia and in Table 7.2 for leukemia. Risk model coefficients for
esophagus, stomach, colon, lung, ovary, bladder, leukemia, and "residual" are based on updated
information on the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and are derived using a slightly modified version
of a model of Land and Sinclair (1991). The risk model coefficients for these sites are obtained by
taking the geometric mean of model coefficients derived from two equally plausible methods
described by Land and Sinclair for transporting risk from one population to another. Both methods
assume a constant excess relative risk coefficient beginning 10 y after an exposure and continuing
throughout the rest of life for each cancer site, excluding leukemia. One method (multiplicative)
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Table 7.1. Revised mortality risk model coefficients3'1* for cancers other than
leukemia, based on the EPA radiation risk methodology (EPA, 1994).
Cancer type
Male:
Esophagus
Stomach
Colon
Liver
Lung
Bone
Skin
Breast
Ovary
Bladder
Kidney
Thyroid
Residual
Female:
Esophagus
Stomach
Colon
Liver
Lung
Bone
Skin
Breast
Ovary
Bladder
Kidney
Thyroid
Residual
Risk
model
type0
R
R
R
R
R
A
A
R
R
R
R
A
R
R
R
R
R
R
A
A
R
R
R
R
A
R
0-9 y
0.2877
1.223
2.290
0.9877
0.4480
0.09387
0.06597
0.0
0.0
1.037
0.2938
0.1667
0.5349
1.805
3.581
3.265
0.9877
1.359
0.09387
0.06597
0.7000
0.7185
1.049
0.2938
0.3333
1.122
10-19 y
0.2877
1.972
2.290
0.9877
0.4480
0.09387
0.06597
0.0
0.0
1.037
0.2938
0.1667
0.5349
1.805
4.585
3.265
0.9877
1.359
0.09387
0.06597
0.7000
0.7185
1.049
0.2938
0.3333
1.122
Age group
20-29 y
0.2877
2.044
0.2787
0.9877
0.0435
0.09387
0.06597
0.0
0.0
1.037
0.2938
0.08333
0.6093
1.805
4.552
0.6183
0.9877
0.1620
0.09387
0.06597
0.3000
0.7185
1.049
0.2938
0.1667
0.8854
(*e)
30-39 y
0.2877
0.3024
0.4395
0.9877
0.1315
0.09387
0.06597
0.0
0.0
1.037
0.2938
0.08333
0.2114
1.805
0.6309
0.8921
0.9877
0.4396
0.09387
0.06597
0.3000
0.7185
1.049
0.2938
0.1667
0.3592
40+ y
0.2877
0.2745
0.08881
0.9877
0.1680
0.09387
0.06597
0.0
0.0
1.037
0.2938
0.08333
0.04071
1.805
0.5424
0.1921
0.9877
0.6047
0.09387
0.06597
0.1000
0.7185
1.049
0.2938
0.1667
0.1175
aThe tabulated risk model coefficients are the precise values derived from the epidemiological data and used in the
calculations. The use of four significant digits should not be interpreted as indicating a low level of uncertainty in the
risk model coefficients.
Age-specific risk model coefficients were used to derive composite risk coefficients representing averages over all ages.
Application of these risk model coefficients to a specific age group is not recommended due to the high sampling
variability in the underlying epidemiological data for some age groups.
CA indicates that an absolute risk model is used (coefficient units, 10"4 Gy"1 y"1), and R indicates that a relative risk
model is used (Gy'1). a(xe) is given for absolute risk model (Eq. 7.1) and Pfo) for a relative risk model (Eq. 7.2).
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Table 7.2. Revised mortality risk model coefficients (Gy"1) for leukemia,
based on the EPA radiation risk methodology (EPA, 1994).a
Age group (xe)
Gender
Male
Female:
0-9 y
982.3
1176
10-19 y
311.3
284.9
20-29 y
416.6
370.0
30-39 y
264.4
178.8
40+ y
143.6
157.1
A relative risk model is used (coefficient units, Gy'1). Risk model coefficients for leukemia are not directly comparable
to those for other types of cancer (Table 7.1) due to differences in the scales of the time-since-exposure response
functions for leukemia and other cancers (see the discussion following Eq. 7.2).
assumes that the relative risk estimator is the same across populations. The other (NIH, for National
Institutes of Health) assumes that the relative risk model coefficients for the target population should
yield the same risks as those calculated with the additive risk model coefficients from the original
population over the period of epidemiological follow-up, excluding the minimal latency period.
These excess relative risk model coefficients are then used to project the risk over the remaining
years of life. The data considered in deriving risk model coefficients consisted of cancers observed
10-40 y after exposure for solid tumors and 5-40 y after exposure for leukemia.
As described below, some modifications in the method of calculation of the NIH model
coefficients have been made to remove inconsistencies in the derived coefficients. Some but not all
of these changes were made in the EPA report on radiation risk models (EPA, 1994); therefore,
some of the risk coefficients in Tables 7.1 and 7.2 differ from values given in that report.
An examination of the coefficients for the additive and multiplicative models of Land and
Sinclair (1991) reveals that in several instances data for exposures of two or more age groups were
combined to calculate a single risk coefficient. In such cases, a single NIH model coefficient has
been calculated for use in the present report by combining the risks calculated for the corresponding
groups. This was done in the EPA report (EPA, 1994) for model coefficients for lung and colon
cancer for two exposure age groups (0-9 y and 10-19 y), and the same principle has been extended
in the present report to the coefficients for esophagus, ovary, and bladder cancer. For these three
sites, the age-group-specific, additive coefficients of Land and Sinclair were based on a
single-coefficient multiplicative risk model. For the present report, a NIH model excess relative risk
coefficient has been calculated corresponding to the combined risk for exposure for all age-groups,
expressed 10-40 years after exposure for the additive risk model.
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EPA (1994) noted inconsistencies between ages and between genders in the additive and
multiplicative risk models of Land and Sinclair (1991) with regard to coefficients for the residual
site for age groups 0-9 y and 10-19 y. These inconsistencies may be the result of uncertain
differences between the total observed excess cancers and the sum of those attributed to specific
sites. In the EPA report (EPA, 1994), risk model coefficients for the residual site for age group
10-19 y were applied to age group 0-9 y. For the present report, the additive model risks for these
two age groups have been combined to calculate gender-specific, single coefficients for the NIH risk
model. Single risk coefficients equivalent to the risks projected by the multiplicative model for
10-40 y following exposure of those in this age group were also calculated. These values were used
to calculate gender-specific risk model coefficients for these two age groups for the EPA risk model.
For kidney, the LSS data are suggestive of a radiogenic risk but the number of excess cancers
is not statistically significant. The existence of a radiogenic kidney cancer risk is indicated by an
epidemiological study of subjects receiving radiation treatments for cervical cancer (NAS, 1990;
Boice et al., 1988). Given the importance of the kidney as a possible target organ for uranium and
some other radionuclides, the EPA (1994) has developed a risk model for this site based on the LSS
data. A constant relative risk model independent of age at exposure and sex is used, and a 10-y
latency period is assumed.
Risk model coefficients for the liver are based on epidemiological data on patients injected
with Thorotrast, an x-ray contrast medium containing isotopes of thorium (NAS, 1980, 1988). To
develop risk model coefficients for high-dose, low-LET radiation, an RBE of 10 is assumed for alpha
particles. A constant relative risk model independent of age at exposure and sex is used, and a 10-y
latency period is assumed.
Estimates of skin cancer risks are highly uncertain, but the mortality risk is known to be
relatively low. For acute exposures, the EPA has adopted the mortality risk estimate given in ICRP
Publication 60 (1991) but, in contrast to ICRP, has applied a DDREF of 2 in estimating the skin
cancer risk at low doses and dose rates. Non-fatal skin cancers, which represent perhaps 99.99% of
basal cell carcinomas and about 99% of squamous cell carcinomas, are excluded from the risk model
coefficients. A 10-y latency period is assumed.
Thyroid risk estimates are based on NCRP Report 80 (NCRP, 1985). The Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the ICRP have also adopted this approach (NRC, 1991, 1993;
ICRP, 1991). The mortality risk is assumed to be one-tenth the morbidity risk. The estimated
morbidity and mortality risks are each reduced by a factor of 3 in the case of exposures to
iodine-125, -129, and -131. This reduction includes the effect of lowered dose rate on the risk, as
well as possible other factors. Hence, the DDREF of 2 applied to organ specific risk estimates is not
101
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applied in the case of exposure to one of these radionuclides. A latency period of 5 y is assumed for
radiogenic thyroid cancers.
As a basis for estimating radiation-induced bone sarcomas, the EPA has adopted BEIR IV's
risk estimate based on alpha irradiation by 224Ra (NAS, 1988). However, this risk estimate refers
to average skeletal dose and has previously been applied incorrectly as endosteal cell dose. For
example, bone cancer risk appears to be substantially overestimated in ICRP Publication 60 (1991)
due to a confusion between endosteal and average skeletal doses (Puskin et al., 1992). Because the
bone seeker ^Ra decays quickly, the endosteal dose from injected224Ra is estimated to be an order
of magnitude higher than the average skeletal dose. Thus, a risk model coefficient derived in terms
of average skeletal dose, if applied to average endosteal dose, would overestimate the radiation-
related risk of bone cancer. Risk model coefficients for high-dose, low-LET radiation are derived
by dividing values based on alpha irradiation by a factor of 10 and reducing the risk model
coefficients by another 30% to account for the fact that about 70% of bone sarcomas are fatal.
Following BEIR III (NAS, 1980), a constant absolute risk model is used to project risk, with an
expression period extending from 2 to 27 y after exposure.
For breast cancer, the EPA has adopted a model of Gilbert developed for the U.S. Nuclear
Regulatory Commission (NRC, 1991, 1993) and based on data for persons receiving medical
exposures to radiation. A major issue with regard to breast cancer is in the transport of risk from
Japan to the U.S., where the baseline rates are much higher. The model of Gilbert for breast cancer
avoids this problem because it is based on North American data.
Site-specific cancer mortality risk estimates from low-dose, low-LET uniform irradiation of
the whole body, based on the risk model coefficients in Tables 7.1 and 7.2, are given in Table 7.3.
These estimates are age-averaged values for the hypothetical stationary population described in
Chapter 3. The method of computation is described in a later section.
Association of cancer type with dose location
The dose locations associated with the different cancer types are shown in Table 7.4. When
more than one dose location is associated with a given cancer type, risks are calculated for a
weighted mean of the doses at these locations using the weights shown in the table. For specific
cancer types, the association of cancer type with dose location follows recommendations in ICRP
Publication 60 (1991), except that the weights assigned to regions within the colon and lung are
based on more recent recommendations in ICRP Publication 66 (1994a) and 67 (1993), respectively.
102
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Table 7.3. Age-averaged site-specific cancer mortality risk estimates (cancer
deaths per person-Gy) from low-dose, low-LET uniform irradiation of the body.
Site
Esophagus
Stomach
Colon
Liver
Lung
Bone
Skin
Breast
Ovary
Bladder
Kidney
Thyroid
Leukemia
Residual3
Total
Combined
genders
1.17xlO'3
4.07x1 rj3
1.04xirj2
1.50x10"3
9.88x1 0'3
9.50x1 fj-5
LOOx-lfy4
5.06x1 0'3
1.49x10'3
2.38x1 0'3
5.15X1Q-4
3.24x1 0"4
5.57x1 fj3
1.49x10'2
5.75x1 0'2
Males
7.30x1 Q-4
3.25x1 rj3
8.38x1 0'3
1.84x10"3
7.71 xlfj3
9.40x1 0'5
9.51 x10'5
0.00
0.00
3.28x1 0'3
6.43x1 0"4
2.05x1 Q-4
6.48x1 0'3
1.35X10'2
4.62x1 0'2
Females
1.59X10'3
4.86x1 0'3
1.24x10'2
1.17x10'3
1.19x10'2
9.60x1 Q-5
1.05X10"4
9.90x1 0'3
2.92x10'3
1.52x10'3
3.92x1 Q-4
4.38x1 0"4
4.71 x10'3
1.63x10'2
6.83x1 0"2
aResidual is a composite of all radiogenic cancers that are not explicitly identified by
site in the model.
The residual cancer category represents a composite of primary and secondary cancers that are not
otherwise considered in the model. The three dose locations associated with these cancers (skeletal
muscle, pancreas, and adrenals) were chosen to be generally representative of doses to soft tissues
and are not considered to be the sites where all residual neoplasms originate.
Relation between cancer mortality and morbidity
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r
To obtain estimates of radiation-induced cancer morbidity, each site-specific mortality risk
estimate is divided by its respective lethality fraction, that is, the fraction of radiogenic cancers at
104
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Table 7.4. Dose regions associate'd with cancer types.
Cancer type
Esophagus
Stomach
Colon
Liver
Lung
Bone
Skin
Breast
Ovary
Bladder
Kidney
Thyroid
Leukemia
Residual
Dose region
Esophagus3
Stomach Wall
Upper Large Intestine Wall
Lower Large Intestine Wall
Liver
Bronchial Region - Basal Cells
Bronchial Region - Secretory Cells
Bronchiolar Region - Secretory Cells
Alveolar-Interstitial Region
Bone Surface
Skin
Breasts
Ovaries
Urinary Bladder Wall
Kidney
Thyroid
Red Marrow
Muscle
Pancreas
Adrenals
Weighting
factor
1.0
1.0
0.568
0.432
1.0
0.1667
0.1667
0.3333
0.3333
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.3334
0.3333
0.3333
aThe esophagus has not yet been incorporated explicitly into the mathematical phantom
used for internal dosimetric calculations; at present, the estimated dose to the thymus is
applied to the esophagus for internal exposures.
that site which are fatal. Aside from thyroid cancer, the lethality fraction is generally assumed to
be the same for radiogenic cancers as for the totality of other cancers at that site. A list of lethality
fractions recommended in ICRP Publication 60 (1991) and adopted by the EPA (1994) is reproduced
in Table 7.5.
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r
Based on the methods of this report, skin is projected to contribute most of the nonfatal
cancers induced by uniform whole body irradiation. At least 83% of all skin cancers are basal cell
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Table 7.5. Lethality data for cancers by site in adults.8
Cancer site
Esophagus
Stomach
Colon
Liver
Lung
Bone
Skinb
Breast
Ovary
Bladder
Kidney
Thyroid
Leukemia (acute)
Residual
Lethality fraction k
0.95
0.90
0.55
0.95
0.95
0.70
0.002
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.65
0.10
0.99
0.71
"Lethality fractions (mortality-to-morbidity ratios) are from Tables B-19
of and B-20 of ICRP Publication 60 (ICRP, 1991).
bAt least 83% of skin cancers are basal cell carcinomas (-0.01%
lethality) and the remainder are squamous cell carcinomas (~1%
lethality). The morbidity estimates for skin cancer given in this report
reflect only fatal cases and omit the much larger number of nonfatal
cases, most of which are easily curable and result in little trauma for the
patient (ICRP, 1992). Left untreated, however, non-fatal skin cancers
may require intensive medical treatment or be disfiguring.
carcinomas and the remainder are squamous cell carcinomas. Approximately 99.99% of the former
and 99% of the latter are non-fatal. The morbidity estimates for skin cancer given in the present
report reflect only fatal cases.
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Treatment of discontinuities in risk model coefficients
The radiogenic cancer models described in the preceding sections are discontinuous at some
times. For example, the function £(0 that describes the period of expression of risk for solid cancers
typically has a value of zero for times between exposure and 10 y after exposure but suddenly jumps
to a value of 1 starting at 10 y after exposure.
To calculate a risk coefficient for a given radionuclide and environmental medium, it is
necessary to integrate functions that include such discontinuous risk model functions as factors. The
integration is accomplished by fitting a smoothly varying spline function to the integrand and
performing a straightforward integration of the spline function. The difficulty arises that the integral
of the spline function may include unintended contributions to the risk. For example, suppose that
the function to be integrated (the integrand) includes the function f (?) described above as a factor,
and suppose the integrand is evaluated at one-year increments. Fitting a spline to the integrand
provides a continuous transition from the value at 9 y to the value at 10 y but includes an unintended
contribution from this interval. The problem is resolved by replacing the value of the discontinuous
function at the discontinuity with the average of the values immediately above and below it. For this
case, the value of the function C(0 at t =10 y is changed from 1 to (0 + 1) / 2 = 0.5.
Uncertainties in risk models
Uncertainties associated with the radiation risk models for low doses and low dose rates are
difficult to quantify but are reasonably well understood in a qualitative sense. The purpose of this
section is to summarize the main sources and, where feasible, provide some indication of the extent
of uncertainties in the radiation risk models used in this report.
Sampling variability
Epidemiologic data on an irradiated population generally can be organized and modeled in
many different ways. For example, choices can be made regarding the grouping of cancer sites, the
extent of division of the study population by age and gender, the mathematical form of the
dose-response, and the general form of the age and temporal dependence. Although interesting
features of the data may be revealed by considering small subgroups, there is a concomitant increase
in statistical variability that may preclude any meaningful improvement in the model.
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For the statistical analysis of the LSS data, the "deaths and person-years of survival were
aggregated by city, gender, six age groups, seven follow-up intervals, and 10 radiation dose intervals
(Shimizu et al. 1989). Site-specific risk coefficients were calculated with a maximum likelihood
estimation method that assumes that the numbers of deaths in each group are independent Poisson
variates. Based on this analysis, Shimizu and coworkers derived excess relative risk estimates with
associated 90% confidence intervals for a number of cancer sites. Their analysis indicates that
sampling variability could lead to sizable errors in estimates of excess relative risk, particularly for
sites showing relatively small numbers of excess cancer deaths. For example, the analysis indicates
a quotient B/A of about 4 for colon, 8 for ovary, and 10 for esophagus, where (A,E) is the 90%
confidence interval for excess relative risk.
Diagnostic misclassification
Two types of diagnostic misclassification of cancer can occur: classification of cancers as
noncancers (detection error) and erroneous classification of non-cancer cases as cancer (confirmation
error). Detection errors lead to an underestimate of the excess absolute risk but do not affect the
estimated excess relative risk. Confirmation errors lead to an underestimate of the excess relative
risk but do not affect the excess absolute risk (NCRP, 1997). Results of a recent autopsy study by
the RERF indicate that the problem of diagnostic misclassification could result in a 10-15%
underestimate of excess relative risk and perhaps a 20-40% underestimate of excess absolute risk
in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors (Sposto et al., 1992; NCRP, 1997).
Errors in dosimetry
In epidemiological studies of irradiated populations, organ doses generally cannot be
determined with high accuracy. For internally exposed subjects, the level or pattern of intake may
not be well established, and there is always incomplete information concerning the time-dependent
distribution and excretion of the internally deposited radionuclide(s) and any radioactive progeny
of those radionuclides produced in vivo. For externally exposed subjects, uncertainties in organ doses
may arise because the radiation source and/or the position, shielding, or exposure times of the
subjects are not well established.
Random errors in the individual dose estimates for the atomic bomb survivor population have
been estimated at 25-45% (Jablon, 1971; Pierce et al., 1990; Pierce and Vaeth, 1991). These random
errors are likely to result, in an overestimate of the average dose in the high dose groups and,
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assuming a linear dose response function, a slight underestimate of the dose response (Pierce et al.,
1990; Pierce and Vaeth, 1991). More significantly, perhaps, the shape of the dose response will be
distorted towards a convex (downward) curvature; hence, a true linear-quadratic dependence may
be distorted to look linear (Pierce and Vaeth, 1991).
Measurements of neutron activation products in Hiroshima indicate that neutron doses for
Hiroshima survivors may have been underestimated and that the relative magnitude of the error
increased with distance from the epicenter (Straume et al., 1992). If neutron doses have been
underestimated, then a larger fraction of the radiogenic cancers would be attributable to neutrons,
and the estimate of risk from gamma rays should be reduced. Using the tentatively revised estimates
of neutron flux derived by Straume and coworkers, Preston et al. (1993) have calculated that the
estimated risk from gamma rays for all cancers other than leukemia could be as much as 25% too
high, with the calculated overestimate depending on the neutron RBE assumed.
The NCRP Committee identified three additional sources of uncertainty relating to the
current dosimetry for the Japanese atomic bomb survivors: (1) bias in gamma ray estimates;
(2) uncertainty in the characterization of radiation shielding by buildings; and (3) uncertainty in
neutron RBE (NCRP, 1997). Altogether, the dosimetric uncertainties were judged to result in
roughly a 15% overestimate of risk model coefficients for combined cancers other than leukemia.
This may understate the dosimetric uncertainty for some specific cancer sites.
Uncertainties in the shape of the dose-response curve
The epidemiological studies underlying current radiation risk models generally involve
subjects who experienced high radiation doses delivered in a relatively short time. A major issue
in radiation risk assessment is how best to extrapolate the results of these epidemiological studies
to low doses and/or low dose rates and to quantify the associated uncertainties. A comprehensive
examination of this issue was contained in NCRP Report 64 (NCRP, 1980). Primarily on the basis
of laboratory studies of cells, plants and animals, the report advocated a linear-quadratic dose
response for acute doses up to about 2.5-4 Gy, above which the dose response begins to turn over
due to cell killing. At low doses, the quadratic term is negligible compared with the linear term.
A theoretical framework for the linear-quadratic dose response model has been developed
by Kellerer and Rossi (1972). In this theory of "dual radiation action", events leading to "lesions"
or permanent changes in cellular DNA require the formation of interacting pairs of "sublesions".
The interacting pairs can be produced by a single track (traversing particle) or by two tracks, giving
rise, respectively, to a linear and a quadratic term in the dose response relationship. According to
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the theory, a sublesion may be repaired before it can interact to form a lesion, with the probability
of such repair increasing with time. As the dose rate is reduced, the formation of lesions from
sublesions caused by separate tracks becomes less important, and the magnitude of the D2 term
decreases. The theory predicts that at sufficiently low doses or dose rates, the response should be
linear and, in either limit, should have the same slope.
Results of animal tumorigenesis studies generally are qualitatively consistent with the dual
action theory, in that low-LET radiation seems to have reduced effectiveness per unit dose at low
dose rates (NCRP, 1980). However, it is usually not possible from the data to verify that the dose
response curve has the linear-quadratic form.
Another success of the dual action theory has been in explaining observed differences
between the effects of low- and high-LET radiations. In this view, the densely ionizing nature of
the latter results in a much greater production of interacting pairs of sublesions by single tracks,
leading to a higher biological effectiveness at low doses and a linear dose response relationship
(except for deviations at high doses attributable to cell-killing effects).
The dual action theory has nevertheless been challenged on experimental grounds, and
observed variations in response with dose, dose rate, and LET can also be explained by other
mechanisms, e.g., a theory involving only single lesions and a "saturable" repair mechanism that
decreases in effectiveness at high dose rates on the microscopic scale (Goodhead, 1982). One
property of such a theory is that, in principle, the effectiveness of repair - and therefore the shape of
the dose response curve - can vary widely with cell type, organ system, and species. Hence, results
obtained on laboratory animals might not be entirely applicable to humans.
According to either the dual action theory or the saturable repair theory, the dose response
should be linear at low doses or low dose rates, and with equal slopes. At higher doses and dose
rates, multiple track events become important, and the dose response should bend upward. As a
result, the response per unit dose at low doses and dose rates will be overestimated if one
extrapolates linearly from observations made at high, acutely delivered doses (NCRP, 1980).
A linear dose response below about 0.2 Gy is consistent with an assumption of maximal
DNA repair in that dose range. Repair of radiation-induced DNA damage has been found to be
largely complete within a few hours of an acute exposure (Wheeler and Wierowski, 1983; Ullrich
et al., 1987). This suggests that maximal repair persists at higher doses, provided the dose received
within any time span of a few hours does not exceed 0.2 Gy. Further protraction should have little
or no effect on the risk of cancer induction. Thus, the current mechanistic explanations suggest that
the DDREF is constant at any dose below about 0.2 Gy and for higher doses received at a low dose
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rate. EPA (1994) adopted the recommendation of UNSCEAR (1993) that an hourly averaged dose
rate less than 0.1 mGy min"1 may be regarded as low in this context.
Until recently, it appeared that the LSS data could not be explained by a linear-quadratic
model, because there were inconsistencies for solid tumors or leukemia and also inconsistencies
between models developed separately for Hiroshima and Nagasaki. With the revised "DS86"
dosimetry, however, these inconsistencies were largely removed (Shimizu et al., 1990; NAS, 1990).
The data from the two cities are now in reasonable agreement. The combined leukemia data can be
fit by a linear-quadratic dose response function; the slope of the function at low doses is about half
that obtained by a linear fit to the data. A statistical analysis of the solid tumor data, on the other
hand, is consistent with a linear dose response from low doses up to about 400 rad. Using a
linear-quadratic model to fit the data reduces the linear term by, at most, a factor of 2 compared to
a simple linear model. Viewing these results through the model used in NCRP 64 (1980) would
indicate that: a best estimate of the DDREF is about 2 for leukemia while, for solid tumors, a
DDREF of 2 represents an upper bound, and the best estimate is about 1. Errors in dose estimation
may introduce a negative bias hi the dose-squared dependence of the response; this has a relatively
minor effect on the best estimate of the DDREF but could increase the upper bound to about 3 or 4.
When compared with observed lung cancer risks in the atomic bomb survivors, results of clinical
studies suggest that the DDREF may be quite large for lung cancer induction, although the
possibility of confounding by the underlying disease process cannot be ruled out.
The results on human solid tumors appear to differ from those obtained through laboratory
studies, including studies of radiation-induced tumorigenesis in mice and rats. Most laboratory
studies suggest a DDREF of about 2 or 3, and sometimes higher, depending on the end point.
Taken together, current scientific data are generally indicative of a DDREF between 1 and
3 for human cancer induction, except for a possibly higher value for lung. The authors of the EPA
report (EPA, 1994) concluded that a value of 2.0 provides a reasonable central estimate. The
Agency's Radiation Advisory Committee agreed "that this choice is reasonable and... consistent with
current scientific judgment" (Loehr and Nygaard, 1992). A DDREF of 2 has recently been adopted
by the ICRP (1991), as well as by other organizations (NCRP, 1993; CIRRPC, 1992), and is
expected to be widely applied for purposes of risk assessment and radiation protection worldwide.
The DDREF is applied to all organ-specific risks except for the breast, for which there is
epidemiological evidence of a lack of effect of dose fractionation.
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Uncertainties in the RBE for alpha particles
Radiobiological data indicate that high-LET alpha radiation has a larger biological effect than
an equal absorbed dose of low-LET radiation. However, ranges of estimated values for alpha
particle RBE are wide, depending on both the biological system and the observed end-point. The
uncertainty in the RBE estimate from an individual study is also usually large, primarily due to the
uncertainty in extrapolation of low-LET data to low doses. At relatively high doses, the
effectiveness of alpha emitters has been found to be 15 to 50 times that of beta emitters for the
induction of bone sarcomas, liver chromosome aberrations, and lung cancers (NCRP, 1990). Since
the LET of secondary protons produced by fission neutrons in living tissue is comparable to that for
alpha particles, data on the RBE of fission neutrons provides ancillary information relevant to the
estimation of alpha particle RBE. Where the dose response data on carcinogenic end-points are
adequate to derive an estimate, fission neutrons have been found to have an RBE between 6 and 60
times that of low dose gamma rays (NCRP, 1990).
The data are generally suggestive of a linear nonthreshold dose response for high-LET
radiation, except for a possible fall-off in effectiveness at high doses. Under some conditions the
effects of high-LET radiation appear to increase with fractionation or with a decrease in dose rate.
Site specific cancer risk estimates for high-LET radiation (neutrons or alpha particles) are
often calculated utilizing human epidemiological data on low-LET radiation (e.g., from the LSS) and
laboratory data on the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the high-LET radiation compared
to a reference low-LET radiation (NCRP, 1990). Since the dose response relationship obtained for
low-LET radiation is typically linear or concave upward while that for high-LET radiation is linear
or concave downward, the RBE is dose dependent. The present report is concerned with risks at
relatively low doses and dose rates, where the acute high dose risk for low-LET radiation is reduced
by the DDREF. Under these conditions, the dose responses for both low and high LET radiations
are thought to be linear, and the RBE takes on a constant (maximum) value: RBEM.
With the exception of radiation-induced breast cancer and leukemia, the authors of the EPA
report (EPA, 1994) followed the ICRP's recommendation (ICRP( 1991) and assumed that the RBE
for alpha particles is 20, in comparison to low-LET radiation at low doses and dose rates. Where
the comparison is made against acute high doses of low-LET radiation, however, a value of 10 is
assumed for the alpha particle RBE. Thus the low-LET radiation DDREF of 2 used for these cancers
is implicitly incorporated into the RBE value for alpha radiation.
For breast cancer induction, a DDREF of 1 has been adopted. Therefore, the RBE will be
independent of dose and dose rate. Since there is no DDREF correction of the low-LET breast
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cancer risk estimates at low doses and dose rates, it is assumed that the acute high dose RBE of 10
is also applicable to breast cancer at low doses and dose rates.
There is evidence that alpha particle leukemia risks estimated on the basis of an RBE of 20
are too high (EPA, 1991). For this reason, an alpha particle leukemia risk estimate of 5.0xlO~3 Gy"1
is employed, consistejt with the available high-LET epidemiological data (MAS, 1988; EPA, 1991).
Quantitatively, this would correspond to an RBE of 1 for this site (relative to low dose, low-LET
radiation). This should not be interpreted as implying that alpha radiation is no more carcinogenic
than low-LET radiation in inducing leukemia. At least hi part, the lower than expected leukemia
risk produced by alpha emitters may result from a nonuniform distribution of dose within the bone
marrow. That is, average doses to sensitive target cells of bone marrow may be substantially
lower than calculated average marrow doses, to an extent that may vary from one alpha-emitting
radionuclide to another. The RBE of 1 for alpha particles is regarded as an "effective RBE" that
reflects factors other than just the relative biological sensitivity to high- and low-LET radiations.
Uncertainties in transporting risk.estimates across populations
Baseline rates for specific cancer types vary from population to population and also vary
over time within a population. For example, stomach cancer rates are substantially higher in Japan
than in the U.S., while the reverse is true for lung, colon, and breast cancer. Moreover, the morbidity
rates for lung and breast cancer, particularly, have been increasing in both populations during recent
years. Despite the observed rough proportionality between radiation risk and baseline cancer rates
by age, it should not be inferred that the radiation risk will vary in proportion to the baseline rate as
one goes from one population to another.
Information on how to transport risk estimates across populations is limited by the quality
of data available on irradiated populations other man the atomic bomb survivors. Two cancer types
for which comparative data exist are thyroid and breast. Data on the thyroid suggest that the risk
increases with the baseline rate, but it would appear that the opposite may be true for the breast.
Some insight into the problem might be gained by looking at subgroups of an irradiated population.
For example, lung cancer rates in Japanese males are several times higher than in Japanese females,
presumably due in part to the higher smoking rate in males. Nevertheless, the excess absolute risk
for lung cancer attributable to radiation does not differ significantly between the male and female
bomb survivors. This suggests that, for lung cancer, absolute risk may be more transportable than
relative risk.
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Land and Sinclair (1991) present two relative risk models, differing in the method of
transporting risk estimates from the LSS population to other populations. Both models assume a
constant excess relative risk coefficient beginning 10 y after an exposure and continuing throughout
the rest of life for each cancer site, excluding leukemia. One model (multiplicative) assumes that
the relative risk coefficient is the same across populations. The other (NIH, for National Institutes
of Health) assumes that the relative risk model coefficients for the target population should yield the
same risks as those calculated with the additive risk model coefficients from the original population
over the period of epidemiological follow-up, excluding the minimal latency period. These excess
relative risk model coefficients are then used to project the risk over the remaining years of life.
Projections made for the U.S. using the NIH model are much less sensitive to differences in site
specific baseline rates between Japan and the U.S. than are those using the multiplicative model.
Data on North American women irradiated for medical purposes indicate about the same risk
of radiogenic breast cancer per unit dose as the LSS data, despite the substantially higher breast
cancer rates found in the U.S. or Canada, compared to Japan. For breast cancer, therefore, the NIH
model projection agrees with observation better than the multiplicative model projection.
Comparative data on other radiation-induced cancers are generally lacking or are too weak to draw
any conclusions regarding the transportation of risk estimates from the LSS population to the U.S.
Both transportation models have a degree of biological plausibility. For example, the
multiplicative model is consistent with the hypothesis that radiation acts as an "initiator" while the
factors responsible for differences in baseline rates act as "promoters" of cancer. Alternatively, if
both radiation and these factors act independently but at the same stage in the carcinogenesis
process, their effects should be additive and radiation risks should be similar between populations
despite differences in baseline rates. It seems likely that the actual situation is more complex than
either of these alternatives and that some mixture of multiplicative and additive effects of radiation
and non-radiogenic carcinogens may be involved.
Given the uncertainty in the transportation of risk across populations, the EPA recommends
the use of geometric means of the age- and site-specific risk model coefficients derived from the
multiplicative and NIH models of Land and Sinclair (EPA, 1994). The use of a geometric mean
coefficient tends to de-emphasize extreme values that may reflect large extrapolations based on a
few excess cancers observed among those exposed as children.
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Uncertainties in age and time dependence of risk per unit dose
Information on the variation of risk of site-specific radiogenic cancers among the atomic
bomb survivors with age and time is limited by sampling uncertainties and by the incomplete period
of epidemiological follow-up. For a given age at time of the bomb, the excess solid tumor mortality
has generally been found to increase with the age at death, roughly in proportion to the age-specific
baseline rate for the site of interest. Consequently, models for most tumor sites are now generally
framed in terms of relative risk.
For the period of epidemiological follow-up, the highest relative risks are found in the
youngest exposure categories. However, the lifetime risks of solid tumors due to exposures before
age 20 remain highly uncertain. Individuals exposed as children are only now entering the years of
life where the risk of cancer is concentrated, and the observed excess effects represent a small
number of cancer deaths. Hence, me sampling error for most types of cancers is large for the
younger age cohorts. Moreover, it is not known whether observed high relative risks will persist.
Theoretical considerations, arising from carcinogenesis modeling, suggest that the relative risks may
decrease over time. Recent epidemiological evidence indicates such a temporal fall-off in groups
irradiated as children (UNSCEAR 1988, Little et al. 1991).
Uncertainties in site-specific cancer morbidity risk estimates
The cancer lethality fractions given in Table 7.5 reflect only cancers appearing in adults.
Even for adults, the selection of these values relied in part on subjective judgment, because there is
no completely reliable way to determine long-term survival based on current (or future) treatment
modalities. Moreover, lethality fractions derived for adults may not always be appropriate for
children.
It appears that leukemia is now often curable in children. However, most radiogenic
leukemias in the atomic bomb survivors occurred before successful treatment became available.
Hence, the leukemia mortality risks derived from the Japanese may more properly reflect morbidity
than mortality for children.
Computation of radionuclide risk coefficients
The calculations of radiogenic risk in this report account for the possibility that an exposed
person who may have eventually died from, or developed, a radiogenic cancer will die at an earlier
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age from a competing cause of death. It is assumed that the survival function is not significantly
affected by the exposures being assessed, that is, that the number of radiogenic cancer deaths at any
age is small compared with the number of deaths at that age from competing causes. Therefore, the
risk coefficients tabulated in this document should not be applied to exposure levels that are
sufficiently high to cause a substantial increase in the mortality rate at any age.
The age-specific cancer risk attributable to a unit intake of a radionuclide is calculated from
the absorbed dose rate due to a unit intake of the radionuclide and the age-specific risk per unit dose
model coefficients. The calculation is specific for each cancer and associated absorbed dose site in
the risk model. The complete calculation may involve the sum of contributions from more than one
target tissue and from both low-and high-LET absorbed doses.
The age-specific lifetime risk coefficient (LRC), r(x), is the risk per unit absorbed dose of a
subsequent cancer death (Gy1) due to radiation received at age jc. In the EPA report on radiation risk
models (EPA, 1994), r(x) is referred to as an attributable lifetime risk (ALR) coefficient, but the
terminology has been changed for use in this report because the term attributable risk is defined
differently by different authors.
For an absolute risk model, the LRC for a given contribution is
(7.4)
where a is the risk model coefficient in Eq. 7.1, £ defines the plateau period (Eq. 7.1), and S is the
survival function, that is, the fraction of live-born individuals in an unexposed population expected
to survive to a given age. 5(0) = 1, and S decreases monotonically for increasing values of x. S(x)
is obtained by a spline fit to decennial life table values to provide a continuous function of x.
Similarly, for a relative risk model,
/(*) =
(7.5)
S(x)
where t\(z,x) is the relative risk at age z due to a dose received at age x and u(z) is the baseline force
of mortality at age z for the given cancer type.
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Following a unit intake of a radionuclide at age x,, the absorbed dose rate D (x) to a given
target tissue varies continuously with age x z x,. The cancer risk ra(x} resulting from a unit intake
of a radionuclide at age x, is calculated from the continuously varying absorbed dose rate D (x) as
follows:
(7.6)
_ *'
where r(x) is the cancer risk due to a unit absorbed dose (Gy1) at the site at age x. The absorbed
dose rate is the absorbed dose rate for low-LET radiation, plus the product of the high-LET absorbed
dose rate and the RBE applicable to the cancer type.
Age-specific male and female risk coefficients are combined by calculating a weighted mean:
(7.7)
where
r0(x,) is the combined cancer risk coefficient for a unit intake of activity at age x,,
1.05 is the presumed sex ratio at birth (male-to-female),
rma(xi) is ti16 ma^e risk Per unit activity at a§e xi>
>>(*/) is the female risk per unit activity at age x,,
Sm(xj) is the male survival function at age x,,
S/xj) is the female survival function at age xit and
wjpc,) and M/X/) are the usage rates (see Chapter 3) of the contaminated medium for males and
females, respectively.
This formulation weights each sex-specific risk coefficient by the proportion of that sex in a
stationary combined population at the desired age of intake.
The average lifetime risk coefficient for a radionuclide intake presumes that the intake rate
is proportional to a constant environmental concentration (e.g., the radionuclide concentration in air).
However, usage (e.g., the breathing rate) is also age and gender specific and therefore must be
included in the averaging process. Defining the average lifetime risk as the quotient of the expected
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lifetime risk and the expected lifetime intake from exposure to a constant environmental
concentration yields
fu(x)ra(x)S(x)dx
(7.8)
fu(x)S(x)
dx
The radionuclide concentration in the environmental medium does not appear in the expression
because it is a common factor in both the numerator and denominator.
The above description applies to a stationary population that is subject to fixed
gender-specific survival functions and fixed cancer mortality rates. In such a population, the age
distribution of a given gender is proportional to the survival function for that gender. The derived
risk coefficients may be interpreted either as risk per unit exposure to a typical member of the
population exposed throughout life to a constant concentration of a radionuclide in an environmental
medium, or as average risk per unit exposure to members of the population due to acute exposure
to that radionuclide in that environmental medium. As discussed in Appendix D, a similar analysis
may be applied to the case of acute exposure of a population with an arbitrary age distribution, if it
is assumed that the exposed population is subject to fixed gender-specific survival functions and
fixed cancer mortality rates at all times after the exposure. In this case, the survival function S(x)
in Eq. 7.8 is replaced by a function P(x) representing the age distribution of the population at the
time of acute exposure.
Lifetime risks for external radionuclide exposures are calculated in a manner similar to that
for radionuclide intakes. Since the external exposure is not considered to be age dependent, the
calculation is simpler. Given the age-specific cancer risk per unit dose, r(x), and the corresponding
dose per unit exposure coefficient, de, the lifetime risk is simply
= dr(x)
(7.9)
for an external exposure at age x. Age-specific male and female risk coefficients are combined by
calculating a weighted mean as in Eq. 7.7, but with the usage rates um(xj) and M/JC,) removed from
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that equation. For lifetime external exposure at a constant exposure rate, de, the average lifetime risk
is
Jr. (*)£(*)
dx
(7.10)
where re(x) is given in Eq. 7.9 and S(x) is the gender-weighted survival function. This equation
applies to a specific cancer site. The total risk is the sum over all cancer sites.
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APPENDIX A. MODELS FOR MORTALITY RATES
FOR ALL CAUSES AND FOR SPECIFIC CANCERS
The life tables used in this report are based on data prepared by the National Center for
Health Statistics for the U.S. Decennial Life Tables for 1989-91 (NCHS, 1997). The data are given
in terms of q(x), the probability of death in the age interval beginning at age x (NCHS, 1997, Tables
2 and 3). For each gender, tabulations are for age intervals from 0-1, 1-7, 7-28, and 28-365 days,
and from 0-1 through 109-110 y in one-year increments. For purposes of this report, these values
of q(x) were extended in one year intervals to ages 110 y and above using the same methods that had
been used to calculate the values for ages 100 to 109 y (Bell et al, 1992). Briefly, it is assumed that
for x > 109 y, q(x) for males is the minimum of 1.05 q(x-\) and 1.0, and q(x) for females is the
minimum of 1.Q6q(x-l) and the value q(x) for males. The completed set of values of q(x) were then
used to calculated S(x), the probability of survival to age x [that is, S(x) = (l-q(x-l'))S(x-iy] and °e(x),
the expected life time remaining at age x. Values of S(x) and °e(x) for a combined population were
calculated for a male-to-female live birth ratio of 1.050. The derived values of S(x) and °e(x) are
shown in Table A. 1.
For consistency with the survival data, age- and gender-specific cancer mortality rates (force
of mortality) were calculated using NCHS data for reported deaths during 1989-91 (NCHS, 1992,
1993a, 1993b). Because of the small numbers of deaths for specific cancer sites at some ages,
reasonably smooth force of mortality curves cannot be obtained by simply fitting the death data in
one-year intervals. The method used here combines the one-year interval death data, starting with
the first age with at least one death, into intervals of one or more years that contain at least five
deaths. Above age 95 y, the one-year intervals are combined into a single group ending at the last
age with any reported deaths. Cumulative deaths, expressed as a fraction of the total number of
deaths in the interval in a stationary population defined by the gender-specific survival functions,
are calculated at the end of each age interval. A third-order hermite polynomial spline (Fritsch and
Carlson, 1980) is then fitted to these values. The "force of mortality" associated with a given cancer
site and age is calculated as the quotient of the first derivative (with respect to age) of the spline fit
to the cumulative deaths and the value of the survival function at that age.
The force of mortality estimate at the maximum reported age is applied to subsequent ages,
and a value of zero is applied to ages below the minimum reported age. Finally, the calculated force
of mortality data are smoothed by convolution with a gaussian response function with a
full-width-half-maximum value of 3 years. Although the reported death data are discrete values for
one-year intervals, the derived forces of mortality are continuous functions of age.
A-l
-------
Table A.l. Gender- and age-specific values for the survival function, S(x),
and the expected remaining lifetime, °e(x), used in this report.
Age (y)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Combined
1.0000
9.9064E-01
9.8992E-01
9.8944E-01
9.8908E-01
9.8878E-01
9.8851 E-01
9.8826E-01
9.8804E-01
9.8784E-01
9.8766E-01
9.8750E-01
9.8735E-01
9.871 3E-01
9.8682E-01
9.8636E-01
9.8574E-01
9.8498E-01
9.841 OE-01
9.831 5E-01
9.821 7E-01
9.8114E-01
9.8008E-01
9.7897E-01
9.7785E-01
9.7671 E-01
9.7556E-01
9.7440E-Q1
9.7321 E-01
9.7197E-01
9.7067E-01
9.6930E-01
9.6786E-01
9.6636E-01
9.6479E-01
9.6314E-01
9.6140E-01
9.5958E-01
9.5767E-01
9.5567E-01
9.5358E-01
9.5140E-01
9.491 OE-01
9.4668E-01
9.4409E-01
9.4132E-01
9.3831 E-01
9.3502E-01
9.3145E-01
9.2758E-01
9.2339E-01
9.1884E-01
9.1387E-01
9.0844E-01
9.0253E-01
8.961 OE-01
8.891 3E-01
8.8157E-01
8.7334E-01
8.6437E-01
8.5460E-01
S(X)
Male
1.0000
9.8961 E-01
9.8884E-01
9.8830E-01
9.8789E-01
9.8754E-01
9.8723E-01
9.8696E-01
9.8670E-01
9.8647E-01
9.8628E-01
9.8611 E-01
9.8594E-01
9.8570E-01
9.8528E-01
9.8465E-01
9.8377E-01
9.8267E-01
9.8140E-01
9.8000E-01
9.7855E-01
9.7703E-01
9.7546E-01
9.7383E-01
9.721 8E-01
9.7050E-01
9.6881 E-01
9.671 OE-01
9.6536E-01
9.6356E-01
9.6167E-01
9.5970E-01
9.5763E-01
9.5549E-01
9.5325E-01
9.5092E-01
9.4847E-01
9.4591 E-01
9.4324E-01
9.4048E-01
9.3762E-01
9.3467E-01
9.3160E-01
9.2840E-01
9.2501 E-01
9.2140E-01
9.1752E-01
9.1333E-01
9.0880E-01
9.0392E-01
8.9868E-01
8.9301 E-01
8.8686E-01
8.801 7E-01
8.7288E-01
8.6494E-01
8.5634E-01
8.4701 E-01
8.3687E-01
8.2583E-01
8.1 381 E-01
Female
1.0000
9.9173E-01
9.9106E-01
9.9064E-01
9.9033E-01
9.9008E-01
9.8984E-01
9.8963E-01
9.8944E-01
9.8928E-01
9.891 2E-01
9.8897E-01
9.8882E-01
9.8864E-01
9.8843E-01
9.881 5E-01
9.8780E-01
9.8740E-01
9.8694E-01
9.8646E-01
9.8597E-01
9.8545E-01
9.8492E-01
9.8437E-01
9.8381 E-01
9.8324E-01
9.8266E-01
9.8207E-01
9.8146E-01
9.8081 E-01
9.801 3E-01
9.7939E-01
9.7861 E-01
9.7778E-01
9.7690E-01
9.7597E-01
9.7498E-01
9.7394E-01
9.7282E-01
9.7162E-01
9.7034E-01
9.6896E-01
9.6748E-01
9.6587E-01
9.641 3E-01
9.6223E-01
9.601 3E-01
9.5780E-01
9.5524E-01
9.5242E-01
9.4933E-01
9.4595E-01
9.4223E-01
9.381 4E-01
9.3367E-01
9.2882E-01
9.2356E-01
9.1785E-01
9.1164E-01
9.0485E-01
8.9744E-01
Combined
75.24
74.94
74.00
73.03
72.06
71.08
70.10
69.12
68.13
67.15
66.16
65.17
64.18
63.20
62.22
61.24
60.28
59.33
58.38
57.44
56.49
55.55
54.61
53.67
52.73
51.79
50.86
49.92
48.98
48.04
47.10
46.17
45.23
44.30
43.38
42.45
41.52
40.60
39.68
38.76
37.85
36.93
36.02
35.11
34.21
33.31
32.41
31.52
30.64
29.77
28.90
28.04
27.19
26.35
25.52
24.70
23.89
23.09
22.30
21.53
20.77
e(x)
Male
71.83
71.58
70.64
69.68
68.70
67.73
66.75
65.77
64.78
63.80
62.81
61.82
60.83
59.85
58.87
57.91
56.96
56.03
55.10
54.17
53.25
52.34
51.42
50.51
49.59
48.68
47.76
46.84
45.93
45.01
44.10
43.19
42.28
41.37
40.47
39.57
38.67
37.77
36.88
35.98
35.09
34.20
33.31
32.43
31.54
30.66
29.79
28.93
28.07
27.22
26.37
25.54
24.71
23.89
23.09
22.30
21.52
20.75
19.99
19.25
18.53
Female
78.81
78.47
77.52
76.55
75.58
74.60
73.61
72.63
71.64
70.65
69.67
68.68
67.69
66.70
65.71
64.73
63.75
62.78
61.81
60.84
59.87
58.90
57.93
56.96
56.00
55.03
54.06
53.09
52.12
51.16
50.19
49.23
48.27
47.31
46.35
45.40
44.44
43.49
42.54
41.59
40.65
39.70
38.76
37.83
36.89
35.97
35.04
34.13
33.22
32.31
31.42
30.53
29.65
28.77
27.91
27.05
26.20
25.36
24.53
23.71
22.90
A-2
-------
Table A.1, continued
Age (y)
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
Combined
8.4405E-01
8.3274E-01
8.2064E-01
8.0770E-01
7.9390E-01
7.7922E-01
7.6370E-01
7.4729E-01
7.2989E-01
7.1140E-01
6.9173E-01
6.7085E-01
6.4873E-01
6.2547E-01
6.0118E-01
5.7598E-01
5.4988E-01
5.2292E-01
4.9505E-01
4.6622E-01
4.3643E-01
4.0583E-01
3.7468E-01
3.4339E-01
3.1230E-01
2.8153E-01
2.5117E-01
2.2156E-01
1.9307E-01
1.6604E-01
1.4063E-01
1.1706E-01
9.5685E-02
7.6820E-02
6.0582E-02
4.6893E-02
3.5553E-02
2.6410E-02
1.9215E-02
1.3686E-02
9.5253E-03
6.4653E-03
4.2700E-03
2.7372E-03
1.6982E-03
1.0164E-03
5.8477E-04
3.2202E-04
1.6891E-04
8.3912E-05
3.9216E-05
1.7103E-05
6.8928E-06
2.5380E-06
8.5432E-07
2.5924E-07
6.9636E-08
1.6159E-08
3.1292E-09
4.79S1E-10
S(x)
Male
8.0086E-01
7.8701E-01
7.7224E-01
7.5649E-01
7.3974E-01
7.2201E-01
7.0334E-01
6.8369E-01
6.6298E-01
6.4109E-01
6.1797E-01
5.9359E-01
5.6801E-01
5.4137E-01
5.1387E-01
4.8565E-01
4.5679E-01
4.2742E-01
3.9763E-01
3.6750E-01
3.3706E-01
3.0647E-01
2.7609E-01
2.4650E-01
2.1816E-01
1.9116E-01
1.6550E-01
1.4140E-01
1.1910E-01
9.8784E-02
8.0549E-02
6.4441E-02
5.0524E-02
3.8824E-02
2.9266E-02
2.1656E-02
1.5693E-02
1.1151E-02
7.7620E-03
5.285 1E-03
3.5144E-03
2.2780E-03
1.4365E-03
8.7932E-04
5.2121E-04
2.9833E-04
1.6438E-04
8.6882E-05
4.3873E-05
2.1069E-05
9.570 1E-06
4.0859E-06
1.6274E-06
5.9920E-07
2.0170E-07
6.1205E-08
1.6441E-08
3.8150E-09
7.3878E-10
1.1328E-10
Female
8.8940E-01
8.8076E-01
8.7147E-01
8.6148E-01
8.5076E-01
8.3930E-01
8.2708E-01
8.1406E-01
8.0014E-01
7.8522E-01
7.6919E-01
7.5197E-01
7.3349E-01
7.1377E-01
6.9286E-01
6.7082E-01
6.4764E-01
6.232 1E-01
5.9734E-01
5.6987E-01
5.4077E-01
5.1017E-01
4.7821E-01
4.4512E-01
4.1115E-01
3.7643E-01
3.4113E-01
3.0573E-01
2.7074E-01
2.3666E-01
2.0372E-01
1.7231E-01
1.4310E-01
1.1672E-01
9.3463E-02
7.3392E-02
5.6407E-02
4.2432E-02
3.1241E-02
2.2507E-02
1.5837E-02
1.0862E-02
7.2452E-03
4.6879E-03
2.9340E-03
1.7705E-03
1.0262E-03
5.6892E-04
3.0020E-04
1.4990E-04
7.0343E-05
3.0771E-05
1.2422E-05
4.5737E-06
1.5396E-06
4.6717E-07
1.2549E-07
2.9120E-08
5.6391E-09
8.6466E-10
Combined
20.02
19.29
18.57
17.86
17.16
16.47
15.79
15.13
14.48
13.84
13.22
12.62
12.03
11.46
10.90
10.36
9.82
9.31
8.80
8.31
7.85
7.40
6.97
6.56
6.17
5.79
5.43
5.09
4.76
4.46
4.17
3.92
3.68
3.47
3.26
3.08
2.90
2.74
2.59
2.44
2.30
2.16
2.03
1.90
1.78
1.66
1.55
1.44
1.34
1.24
1.14
1.05
0.97
0.89
0.82
0.75
0.68
0.62
0.55
0.49
e(x)
Male
17.82
17.13
16.44
15.78
15.12
14.48
13.85
13.23
12.63
12.05
11.48
10.93
10.40
9.89
9.39
8.90
8.44
7.98
7.54
7.12
6.72
6.34
5.98
5.64
5.30
4.98
4.68
4.39
4.12
3.87
3.63
3.42
3.23
3.06
2.90
2.74
2.60
2.47
2.34
2.22
2.10
1.99
1.88
1.77
1.67
1.57
1.47
1.38
1.29
1.21
1.12
1.05
0.97
0.89
0.82
0.75
0.68
0.62
0.55
0.49
Female
22.11
21.32
20.54
19.77
19.02
18.27
17.53
16.80
16.09
15.38
14.69
14.02
13.36
12.71
12.08
11.46
10.85
10.26
9.68
9.12
8.59
8.07
7.58
7.10
6.65
6.22
5.81
5.42
5.06
4.72
4.40
4.11
3.85
3.61
3.39
3.18
2.99
2.81
2.65
2.49
2.34
2.20
2.06
.93
.80
.68
.56
.45
1.35
1.24
1.15
1.05
0.97
0.89
0.82
0.75
0.68
0.62
0.55
0.49
A-3
-------
-------
APPENDIX B. ADDITIONAL DETAILS OF THE DOSIMETRIC MODELS
Definitions of special source and target regions
The source region Body Tissues (formerly called Whole Body) consists of the entire body,
minus the contents of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, the urinary bladder, the gall bladder, and the
heart. Thus, Body Tissues consists essentially of the "living tissues" of the body. The source region
Blood is assumed to be uniformly distributed in Body Tissues.
The source region Soft Tissues represents Body Tissues minus cortical and trabecular bone.
This source region is used to describe the distribution of some radionuclides that are distributed
throughout the soft tissues of the body but have little deposition in mineral bone.
The target region historically referred to as Bone Surface represents radiosensitive endosteal
tissue that actually is neither bone in its composition nor is it a surface. This target region is defined
as the volume of soft tissue within 10 /urn of the endosteal surface of bone. The target region Bone
Surface should not be confused with the source regions Cortical Bone Surface and Trabecular Bone
Surface, which refer to radioactivity assumed to be associated with infinitely thin surfaces of cortical
and trabecular bone, respectively.
Within mineral bone, activity may be distributed within the volume of cortical or trabecular
bone as well as on the surfaces of mineral bone. The four source regions Cortical Bone Surface,
Cortical Bone Volume, Trabecular Bone Surface, and Trabecular Bone Volume are not used as target
regions, because mineral bone is not radiosensitive.
Following long-term usage in radiation dosimetry, the source or target region Red Marrow
is identified with the hematopoietically active marrow. The percentage of active marrow cells
(cellularity) within a volume of marrow varies from site to site in the skeleton. The age-specific
distribution of marrow within the body and relative cellularity at different sites have been taken into
account in the dosimetry.
For a given biokinetic model, the source region Other consists of Body Tissues, minus the
explicit source organs identified in the biokinetic model. The contribution of radiations emitted in
Other to the energy deposition in a target region T is derived by assuming that the radioactivity is
distributed uniformly by mass in Other.
Only source regions that are regarded as "volume sources" (that is, that have non-zero
volume) may be considered as part of Other. Because the source regions Cortical Bone Surface and
Trabecular Bone Surface are considered as infinitely thin surfaces of bone, they are not volume
sources and hence cannot be part of Other. However, Cortical Bone Volume and Trabecular Bone
B-l
-------
Volume are volume sources and may be part of Other. If ho source regions in the volume of mineral
bone or on its surfaces are explicitly identified in the biokinetic model, then Other includes
radioactivity uniformly distributed by mass in Cortical Bone Volume and Trabecular Bone Volume.
If any source region in the volume or on the surfaces of mineral bone is explicitly identified in the
biokinetic model, then Other does not include any activity in mineral bone, that is, neither Cortical
Bone Volume nor Trabecular Bone Volume. The entire mineral bone (Cortical Bone Volume plus
Trabecular Bone Volume) is either included in Other or the entire mineral bone is excluded. It is
never separated. Red Marrow will always be part of Other unless it is explicitly identified as a
source region in the biokinetic model.
The esophagus is a radiosensitive tissue but has not yet been incorporated explicitly into the
mathematical phantom used for internal dosimetric calculations. At present, the dose calculated for
the target region Thymus is applied to the esophagus.
Age-dependent masses of source and target regions
Age-specific masses of source and target regions are given in Table B.I. With the exception
of Urinary Bladder Contents, values for children are taken from the phantom series of Cristy and
Eckerman (1987), and those for the adult male are taken from the Reference Man document (ICRP,
1975). Masses of Urinary Bladder Contents are based on data assembled for the revision of
Reference Man and are intended to represent average contents of the bladder (Cristy and Eckerman,
1993).
For the adult female, regional masses are mostly reference values from ICRP Publication 23
but, where none are given, are scaled from those for the reference adult male. Masses for the target
region Bone Surface or for source regions within mineral bone of the adult female are taken as 75%
of the values for males. For Urinary Bladder Contents and Urinary Bladder Wall, values for the
15-y-oldmale are applied to the adult female.
Absorbed fractions for radiosensitive tissues in bone
For electrons, the radiation is usually assumed to be absorbed entirely in the source region.
Exceptions are made for alpha and beta-emitters when the source and target regions are parts of the
skeleton. The absorbed fractions in Table B.2 are taken from ICRP Publication 30, Part 1 (1979),
and are applied to all ages.
B-2
-------
Table B.I. Age-specific masses (g) of source and target organs.
Organ
Adrenals
Brain
Breasts
Gallbladder Contents
Gallbladder Wall
Lower Large Intestine Contents
Lower Large Intestine Wall
Small Intestine Contents
Small Intestine Wall
Stomach Contents
Stomach Wall
Upper Large Intestine Contents
Upper Large Intestine Wall
Heart Contents
Heart Wall
Kidneys
Liver
Muscle
Ovaries
Pancreas
Red Marrow
Cortical Bone Volume
Trabecular Bone Volume
Bone Surface
Skin
Spleen
Testes
Thymus
Thyroid
Urinary Bladder Contents
Newborn
5.83
35.2
0.107
2.12
0.408
6.98
7.96
20.3
32.6
10.6
6.41
11.2
10.5
36.5
25.4
22.9
121
760
0.328
2.80
47.0
0.0
14.0
15.0
118
9.11
0.843
11.3
1.29
10.4
1y
3.52
88.4
0.732
4.81
0.910
18.3
20.6
53.1
84.9
36.2
21.8
28.7
27.8
72.7
50.6
62.9
292
2500
0.741
10.3
150
299
20.0
26.0
271
25.5
1.21
22.9
1.78
26.0
5y
5.27
1260
1.51
19.7
3.73
36.6
41.4
106
169
75.1
49.1
57.9
55.2
134
92.8
116
584
5000
1.73
23.6
320
875
219
37.0
538
48.3
1.63
29.6
3.45
67.6
10y
7.22
1360
2.60
38.5
7.28
61.7
70.0
179
286
133
85.1
97.5
93.4
219
151
173
887
11,000
3.13
30.0
610
1580
396
68.0
888
77.4
1.89
31.4
7.93
78.0
15 y
10.5
1410
360
49.0
9.27
109
127
322
516
195
118
176
168
347
241
248
1400
22,000
11.0
64.9
1050
3220
806
120
2150
123
15.5
28.4
12.4
88.4
Adult
female3
14.0
1200
360
50.0
8.00
135
160
375
600
230
140
210
200
410
240
275
1400
17,000
11.0
85.0
1300
3000
750
90.0
1790
150
0.0
20.0
17.0
88.4
Adult
male3
14.0
1400
a
62.0
10.0
135
160
400
640
250
150
220
210
500
330
310
1800
28,000
a
100
1500
4000
1000
120
2600
180
35.0
20.0
20.0
120
B-3
-------
Table B.I, continued
Organ
Urinary Bladder Wall
Uterus
Body Tissues
Exlrathoracic 1 - Basal Cells
Extrathoracic 2 - Basal Cells
Lymph Nodes - Extrathoracic
Bronchial - Basal Cells
Bronchial - Secretory Cells
Bronchiolar - Secretory Cells
Alveolar-Interstitial
Lymph Nodes - Thoracic
Newborn
2.88
3.85
3535.7
0.00173
0.0389
0.701
0.0938
0.187
0.385
51.4
0.701
iy
7.70
1.45
9543.1
0.00413
0.0930
2.05
0.155
0.310
0.596
151
2.05
5y
14.5
2.70
19,458
0.00828
0.186
4.11
0.234
0.469
0.946
301
4.11
10y
23.2
4.16
32,620
0.0126
0.284
6.78
0.311
0.622
1.30
497
6.78
15y
35.9
80.0
55,825
0.0185
0.416
11.7
0.408
0.816
1.76
859
11.7
Adult
female3
35.9
80.0
56,912
0.0170
0.390
12.3
0.390
0.780
1.90
904
12.3
Adult
male3
45.0
80.0
68,831
0.0200
0.450
15.0
0.432
0.864
1.94
1100
15.0
"In this report, dosimetric calculations are not performed separately for adult males and females but are based on a
reference adult formed by adding the breasts, ovaries, and uterus of the adult female phantom to the adult male phantom.
Table B.2. Absorbed fractions for alpha- and beta-emitters in bone (ICRP, 1979,1980).
Source Region
Cortical Bone Surface
Cortical Bone Volume
Trabecular Bone Surface
Trabecular Bone Volume
Cortical Bone Surface
Cortical Bone Volume
Trabecular Bone Surface
Trabecular Bone Volume
Red Marrow
Red Marrow
Target Region
Red Marrow
Red Marrow
Red Marrow
Red Marrow
Bone Surface
Bone Surface
Bone Surface
Bone Surface
Red Marrow
Bone Surface
(3-emitter, average
cc-emitter energy < 0.2 MeV
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.05
0.25
0.01
0.25
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.35
0.25
0.015
0.25
0.025 0.025
1
(fraction
(mass
1
p-emitter, average
energy ^ 0.2 MeV
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.35
0.015
0.015
0.025
0.025
1
endosteal tissue associated with Red Marrow)
of endosteal tissue) -« (mass
of Red Marrow)8
"This equation corresponds to the assumption that the specific absorbed fraction in endosteal tissue is the same as that
in Red Marrow itself. The fraction of endosteal tissue in whole skeleton associated with Red Marrow is assumed to be
1.0,0.83,0.65,0.65,0.65, and 0.5 for ages newborn, 1-y, 5-y, 10-y, 15-y, and adult, respectively. Adult value is from
ICRP Publication 30, and other values are from Cristy and Eckerman (1987).
B-4
-------
APPENDIX C. AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE MODELS AND METHODS
USED TO CALCULATE RISK COEFFICIENTS FOR INTERNAL EXPOSURE
This appendix provides an example to illustrate the models and computational steps involved
in the derivation of a risk coefficient for ingestion or inhalation of a radionuclide. A secondary
purpose is to illustrate some differences between the updated models applied here and the older
models still commonly used by regulatory agencies, particularly the models of ICRP Publication 30
(1979, 1980,,1981, 1988).
The radionuclide chosen is 232Th. This radionuclide was selected because it represents nearly
all of the different types of changes that have been made recently in the ICRP's biokinetic and
dosimetric models. For example, age-dependent/} values have been introduced for thorium and the
fj value for the adult has been changed (ICRP, 1995a); a new, age-specific systemic biokinetic model
has been adopted for thorium (ICRP, 1995a); the treatment of ingrowing radioactive progeny of
f)'3rj
Th and other thorium isotopes has been revised (ICRP, 1995a); and a new model of the
biokinetics of inhaled radionuclides, including 232Th, has been adopted (ICRP, 1994a).
To keep the analysis to a reasonable length, the discussion focuses on estimating the risk, per
unit intake of 232Th, of dying from a single cancer type. Leukemia is considered because of the
relatively high degree of sophistication and detail provided in the risk model for this type of cancer.
Because radiogenic leukemia is assumed to arise from irradiation of the bone marrow, discussion
of the dosimetric models focuses on this tissue.
Gastrointestinal tract model and/7 values
The ICRP's model for transit of material through the gastrointestinal tract is described in
Chapter 4. This model has not been changed since its appearance in ICRP Publication 30 (1979).
However, applications of the model have changed in recent ICRP publications in the following
ways: the model is now applied to all age groups; some of the ICRP's updated systemic biokinetic
models depict secretion of activity from the systemic tissues and fluids into compartments of the
gastrointestinal tract model; new/; values have been adopted for several elements, for application
to environmental intakes by the adult; and age-specific// values have been adopted for several
elements, for application to environmental intakes.
In ICRP Publication 69 (1995a), an// value of 5*10"4 is recommended for calculation of
doses from ingestion of environmental thorium by persons of age ^ 1 y. This/ value, which is 2.5
C-l
-------
times the value recommended in ICRP Publication 30 (1979) for consideration of occupational
exposures to thorium, is based on experimental data on gastrointestinal absorption of thorium,
neptunium, plutonium, americium, and curium in human subjects. On the basis of experimental
results indicating that gastrointestinal absorption of actinide elements typically is several times
higher in newborn than adult animals, an/; value of 5xlO'3 is assigned to infants (ICRP, 1995a).
Respiratory tract model
The ICRP's new respiratory tract model is described in Chapter 4. The present discussion
focuses on predictions of the model for three hypothetical forms (absorption types) of inhaled
thorium, including the distribution of thorium in the respiratory tract, its absorption to blood, and
its movement from the respiratory tract to excreta, as a function of time after inhalation.
Although the respiratory tract model was designed to allow consideration of
compound-specific kinetics, parameter values have been developed for only a few general situations.
In current applications of the model, a given compound of an element usually is assigned to one of
three default absorption types: Type F, representing fast dissolution and a high level of absorption
to blood; Type M, representing an intermediate rate of dissolution and an intermediate level of
absorption to blood; and Type S, representing slow dissolution and a low level of absorption to
blood. Ideally, the user bases an absorption type on data on the form of material expected to be
encountered. In practice, the form of the inhaled material often cannot be characterized with much
confidence. . .
Predictions of the fate of inhaled 232Th of Type F, M, or S based on the ICRP's new
respiratory tract model are shown on the left side of Fig. C.I. The assumed particle size is 1 urn
(AMAD). Because it is assumed in the model that the behavior of material in the respiratory tract
depends only on particle size and absorption type, the predictions apply to all long-lived
radionuclides whose gastrointestinal absorption is negligible compared with the indicated levels of
absorption from the respiratory tract to blood. For short-lived radionuclides, the curves for the
extrathoracic (ET\ alveolar-interstitial (AI), bronchial (BB), and bronchiole (bb) regions may
decline faster and those for Gastrointestinal (GI) excretion, Nasal excretion, and Absorption may
have lower maximum values than the curves shown in Fig. C.I due to radioactive decay in the
respiratory tract. Here, GI excretion represents the cumulative activity transferred from the
respiratory tract to the GI Tract, and Nasal excretion refers to removal of material from the ET region
directly to the environment by such mechanisms as nose blowing.
C-2
-------
£0-o°ooAB To"
0.1 1
Time after inhalation (d)
10
'0.001 0.01 0.1 1
Time after inhalation (d)
10
cit 0,40
o
'.:.:.:"""
,
5b x^
m-*'-»^t/i,, j"'j
GI excretion
Nasal excretion
S*~ ., Ah,(,rrti2n_
^___^
-------
The three absorption types, F, M, and S, correspond roughly to the three lung clearance
classes D (days), W (weeks), and Y (years) used in the ICRP's previous respiratory tract model
(ICRP, 1979). Predictions of the previous model for inhaled 232Th of particle size 1 um and
clearance classes D, W, and Y are shown on the right side of Fig. C.I for comparison with
predictions of the new model. Although there is not an exact correspondence between the different
regions of the two models, the nasal-pharyngeal (NP) region may be compared with the ET region,
the tracheobronchial (TB) region with the bronchi (BE) plus bronchioles (bb), and the pulmonary
(P) region with the alveolar-interstitial (AI) region of the new model. Compared with the new
model, the previous model predicts higher total deposition in the respiratory tract, greater deposition
in the lower lungs, faster removal from the extrathoracic regions, and greater absorption to blood.
Biokinetics of absorbed thorium
Structure of the systemic biokinetic model for thorium
A new biokinetic model for thorium was introduced in ICRP Publication 69 (ICRP, 1995a).
The model is developed within a generic model framework adopted by the ICRP for application to
a class of "bone-surface-seeking" radionuclides (Fig. C.2). To this point, the generic model
framework has been applied by the ICRP to thorium, plutonium, americium, curium, and neptunium.
While the model structure is generic, many of the transfer coefficients are not. Some transfer
coefficients associated with compartments within the skeleton are expressed in terms of bone
remodeling rates and thus are independent of the bone-surface seeker, but element-specific transfer
coefficients are required for most of the paths shown in Fig. C.2.
The generic model structure divides systemic tissues and fluids into six main parts: BLOOD,
SKELETON, LIVER, KIDNEYS, GONADS, and OTHER SOFT TISSUES. BLOOD and GONADS
are treated as uniformly mixed pools, but each of the other major parts is further divided into a
minimal number of compartments needed to explain available biokinetic data on thorium and
chemically similar elements.
SKELETON is divided into cortical and trabecular fractions, and each of these is subdivided
into fractions associated with bone surface, bone volume, and bone marrow. Activity entering
SKELETON initially deposits in compartments of bone surface but is transferred gradually to bone
marrow by bone resorption or to compartments of bone volume by bone formation. Activity in bone
volume compartments is transferred gradually to bone marrow compartments by resorption. Activity
04
-------
SKELETON
SOFT
TISSUES
1
INTERMEDIATE
TURNOVER
(STI)
i
CORTICAL
SURFACE
i
tf
, - _. ._!,.
-»
RAPID
TURNOVER
(STO)
CORTICAL
MARROW
TRABECULAR
SURFACE
1
URINARY
BLADDER
CONTENTS
-
TRABECULAR
MARROW
«
KID
>IEYS
_*
"*"
OTHER KIDNEY
TISSUE
URINARY
PATH
J
Jill
BLOOD
SLOW
TURNOVER
(ST2)
p._.
»
^
LIVER 2
LIVER 1
I
Gl TRACT
i CONTENTS
i
GONADS FECES
Fig. C.2. The ICRP's generic framework for modeling the systemic biokinetics
of a class of bone-surface-seeking elements, including thorium.
moves from bone marrow compartments to BLOOD over a few months and is subsequently
redistributed in the same pattern as the original input to blood.
LIVER is viewed as consisting of two compartments, called LIVER 1 and LIVER 2. LIVER 1
represents relatively short-term retention and LIVER 2 represents relatively long-term retention in
the liver. Activity entering the liver is assigned to LIVER 1. Activity removed from LIVER 1 by
biological processes is divided among blood, LIVER 2, and the contents of the GI tract. Activity
leaving LIVER 2 is assigned to blood.
KIDNEYS consists of two compartments, one that loses activity to urine and another that
returns activity to blood. URINARY BLADDER CONTENTS is considered as a separate pool that
receives all material destined for urinary excretion.
C-5
-------
Compartment STO is a soft-tissue pool that includes the extracellular fluids and exchanges
material with blood over a period of hours or days. Soft-tissue compartments ST1 and ST2 represent
intermediate-term retention (up to a few years) and tenacious retention (many years), respectively,
in the massive soft tissues (for example, muscle, skin, and subcutaneous fat).
Parameter values for the systemic model for thorium
Movement of material in the body is depicted as a system of first-order processes. Parameter
values are expressed as transfer coefficients (fractional transfer per day) between compartments.
Age-specific transfer coefficients for thorium are listed in Table C.I for the six ages considered in
the ICRP series on age-dependent dosimetry (ICRP, 1989,1993,1995a, 1995b, 1996). Rates for
intermediate ages are obtained by interpolating linearly with age between the listed values. For
example, a given transfer coefficient for age 4 y is calculated as 0.25 times the rate given for age 1
y plus 0.75 times the rate given for age 5 y. For consideration of the biokinetics of thorium, the age
of the mature adult is assumed to be ^25 y.
Transfer coefficients for the adult were based largely on experimental, occupational, and
environmental data on the behavior of thorium in humans, but it was necessary to use data on
laboratory animals (mainly beagles) to fill gaps in the human data. For example, the model was
required to be consistent with data on early retention, excretion, and blood clearance of thorium in
healthy, elderly human subjects who received radiothorium by intravenous injection (Maletskos et
al., 1966, 1969). However, the early distribution of thorium in the body was based mainly on
experimental data on the early distribution of thorium in beagles (Stover et al. 1960), in the absence
of such information for humans. Parameter values controlling predictions of the long-term
distribution and retention of thorium were developed mainly on the basis of bioassay or autopsy
measurements on occupationally or environmentally exposed humans (Rundo, 1964; Newton et al.,
1981; Wrenn et al., 1981; Singh et al., 1983; Ibrahim et al., 1983; Dang et al., 1992), together with
consideration of bone restructuring rates in humans (ICRP, 1995c).
Due to the paucity of age-specific data on the biokinetics of thorium, default assumptions
concerning the relative kinetics of bone seekers hi children and adults were used in ICRP Publication
69 (1995a) to extend parameter values from adults to children. These assumptions are based on
numerous observations of the age-specific biokinetics of various bone seekers in laboratory animals
and, to a lesser extent, human subjects (Leggett, 1992a, 1992b; ICRP, 1993,1995b). It is postulated
that differences with age in the biokinetics of a radionuclide that accumulates mainly hi the skeleton
is dominated by three events: (1) increased fractional transfer from plasma to bone in children in
C-6
-------
Table C.I. Age-specific transfer coefficients (cT1) in the systemic
biokinetic model for thorium (ICRP, 1995a).
Age (y)
Pathway3
Blood to Liver 1
Blood to Cort Surf
Blood to Trab Surf
Blood to UBC
Blood to Urinary Path
Blood to OKT
Blood to LI Contents
Blood to Testes
Blood to Ovaries
Blood to STO
Blood to ST1
Blood to ST2
STO to Blood
Urinary Path to UBC
OKT to Blood
ST1 to Blood
ST2 to Blood
Trab Surf to Trab Vol
Trab Surf to Bone Marrow
Cort Surf to Cort Vol
Cort Surf to Bone Marrow
Trab Vol to Bone Marrow
Cort Vol to Bone Marrow
Bone Marrow to Blood
Liver 1 to Liver 2
Liver 1 to SI Contents
Liver 1 to Blood
Liver 2 to Blood
Testes/Ovaries to Blood
Infant
(100 d)
0.0647
0.7763
0.7763
0.0711
0.0453
0.0129
0.00647
0.000039
0.000023
0.832
0.162
0.0259
0.462
0.0462
0.00038
0.00095
0.000019
0.00822
0.00822
0.00822
0.00822
0.00822
0.00822
0.0076
0.00095
0.000475
0.000475
0.000211
0.00019
1y
0.0647
0.7763
0.7763
0.0711
0.0453
0.0129
0.00647
0.000058
0.000030
0.832
0.162
0.0259
0.462
0.0462
0.00038
0.00095
0.000019
0.00288
0.00288
0.00288
0.00288
0.00288
0.00288
0.0076
0.00095
0.000475
0.000475
0.000211
0.00019
5y
0.0647
0.7763
0.7763
0.0711
0.0453
0.0129
0.00647
0.000066
0.000076
0.832
0.162
0.0259
0.462
0.0462
0.00038
0.00095
0.000019
0.00181
0.00181
0.00153
0.00153
0.00181
0.00153
0.0076
0.00095
0.000475
0.000475
0.000211
0.00019
10y
0.0647
0.7763
0.7763
0.0711
0.0453
0.0129
0.00647
0.000077
0.00013
0.832
0.162
0.0259
0.462
0.0462
0.00038
0.00095
0.000019
0.00132
0.00132
0.000904
0.000904
0.00132
0.000904
0.0076
0.00095
0.000475
0.000475
0.000211
0.00019
15y
0.0647
0.7763
0.7763
0.0711
0.0453
0.0129
0.00647
0.00062
0.00023
0.832
0.162
0.0259
0.462
0.0462
0.00038
0.00095
0.000019
0.000959
0.000959
0.000521
0.000521
0.000959
0.000521
0.0076
0.00095
0.000475
0.000475
0.00021 1
0.00019
Adult
0.0970
0.6793
0.6793
0.1067
0.0679
0.0194
0.00970
0.00068
0.00021
0.832
0.243
0.0388
0.462
0.0462
0.00038
0.00095
0.000019
0.000247
0.000493
0.0000411
0.0000821
0.000493
0.0000821
0.0076
0.00095
0.000475
0.000475
0.000211
0.00019
aCort = Cortical, Trab = Trabecular, Surf = Surface, Vol = Volume, UBC = Urinary Bladder Contents, OKT
= Other Kidney Tissue, LI = Large Intestine, SI = Small Intestine.
association with elevated bone formation rates in the maturing skeleton; (2) decreased fractional
transfer from plasma to soft tissues and excreta in children due to relatively greater competition from
immature bone; and (3) an elevated rate of transfer from bone to plasma in children due to an
elevated rate of bone turnover. For actinide elements, the additional assumption is made that
fractional deposition in the gonads at a given age depends on the mass of the gonads at that age.
Except where there is evidence to the contrary, removal half-times from soft tissues, bone surfaces,
and exchangeable bone volume are assumed to be independent of age.
C-7
-------
In the model for thorium, the deposition fraction on all bone surfaces combined is set at 0.8
for ages £ 15 y compared with 0.7 for adults, and the deposition fractions in soft tissues and excretion
pathways are reduced by one-third for application to ages £ 1 5 y to maintain mass balance. Of
greater importance for dose estimates for thorium isotopes in children, however, is the generic
assumption that the removal rate of thorium from bone surfaces, its rate of burial in bone volume,
and its rate of removal from bone volume to blood (via bone marrow) are all directly related to the
bone remodeling rate, which is estimated to be several-fold higher in children than in adults. For
example, ICRP Publication 70 (1995c) gives reference values for the remodeling rate of trabecular
bone of more than 100% y1 for ages
-------
The indicated differences with age at injection result from some combination of three assumptions:
elevated uptake of thorium by immature bone, an elevated rate of remodeling of immature bone, and
C-9
-------
Table C.2. Predictions of SO-y integrated activity of 232Th (nuclear transformations
per Bq injected), following injection into blood at age 100 d, 10 y, or 25 y.
Compartment
Trabecular surfaces
Cortical surfaces
Trabecular volume
Cortical volume
Red marrow
Liver
Kidneys
Testes
Ovaries
100 d
9.8x1 o7
2.8x1 08
8.8x107
1.8x1 0s
3.1 x107
5.7x1 07
1.1x107
2.9x105
1.5x105
Age at injection
10y
1.2x108
4.3x108
9.3x1 07
2.7x108
2.0x1 07
4.2x1 07
8.4x106
4.3x1 0s
1.8x10s
25 y
1.4x108
6.3x108
6.4x107
1.6x108
1.3x107
3.8x107
7.5X1 06
4.6x1 0s
1.4x1 0s
an age-independent removal half-time for soft tissues. For example, the time-integrated activity in
red marrow decreases with age at injection, mainly as a result of rapid recycling of activity from
trabecular bone to red marrow in children and an age-independent removal half-time from bone
marrow. For gonads, the elevated feedback of activity from bone at younger ages is offset by
relatively low deposition fractions for gonads at these ages, resulting in little change with age at
injection in the cumulative activity of 232Th.
Treatment of 232Th chain members produced in systemic tissues
In ICRP Publication 30 (1979), decay chain members produced in the body after intake of
a parent radionuclide generally were assigned the biokinetic model of the parent; this is the so-called
assumption of "shared kinetics" of decay chain members. In a subsequent critical review of
experimental data on the fate of radionuclides formed in vivo, it was suggested that the following
assumption of "independent kinetics" of chain members may be more realistic than the assumption
of shared kinetics in most cases (Leggett et al., 1985): (1) a radionuclide born in soft tissues or on
bone surfaces behaves as if taken into the body as a parent radionuclide; (2) a radionuclide born in
bone volume has the same kinetics as the parent until removed from bone volume and then behaves
as if taken into the body as a parent radionuclide.
C-10
-------
There is some experimental evidence to support the assumption of independent kinetics for
thorium chains (Leggett et al., 1985). For example, activity ratios 224Ra:228Th in tissues and excreta
of beagles injected with 228Th are consistent with the assumption that 224Ra born on bone surfaces
migrated from 228Th over a period of days and then behaved as if injected directly into blood (Van
Dilla et al., 1956,1957; Stover et al., 1965a, 1965b). Time-dependent activity ratios of subsequent
members of the 228Th chain also suggest redistribution consistent with the characteristic biokinetic
models of individual members, although the extent of migration of these chain members and hence
the interpretation of the data are limited by the short half-lives of the chain members (Stover et al.,
1965a, 1965b).
The assumption of independent kinetics was applied in ICRP Publication 69 (1995a) to chain
members produced in vivo after absorption of thorium isotopes to blood, except that some
simplifying assumptions were made in cases where there was little difference, in effect, between the
assumptions of shared and independent kinetics. Parameter values for individual chain members can
be found in Appendix C of ICRP Publication 71 (ICRP, 1995b). The models for members of various
thorium chains are summarized in the following:
1. Radium isotopes formed in vivo are assumed to follow the model for radium as a parent
(Leggett, 1992a; ICRP, 1993). This requires that the model structure for thorium (Fig. C.2)
be expanded to include compartments that are in the radium model (see Chapter 4, Fig. 4.6)
but not in the thorium model. For example, each bone volume compartment in the thorium
model must be divided into exchangeable and nonexchangeable bone volume compartments
to describe the behavior of radium after its movement from plasma to bone surfaces to bone
volume. According to the radium model, bone contains about 30%, soft tissues about 15%,
and excreta plus excretion pathways (mainly intestinal contents) about 55% of the injected
amount at 1 d after injection of long-lived radium into blood of an adult. Most radium atoms
entering bone or soft tissues return to plasma within a few days. By 100 d after injection, bone
retains less than 5% and soft tissues less than 1% of the injected amount, the rest having been
lost in excreta.
2. Radon produced in soft tissues or bone surfaces is assumed to be removed to plasma at a
fractional rate of 100 d'1. Radon produced in the exchangeable and nonexchangeable bone
volume compartments is assumed to migrate to plasma at rates of 1.5 and 0.36 d'1,
respectively. Radon entering plasma is assumed to be removed from the body by exhalation
at a fractional rate of 1 min'1.
3. Lead isotopes formed in vivo are assumed to follow the model for lead as a parent (Leggett,
1993; ICRP, 1993). Therefore, the model structure used to address a thorium chain that
C-ll
-------
includes lead as a daughter must include compartments such as red blood cells and
exchangeable and nonexchangeable bone volume that are in the lead model (Fig. 4.6) but are
not identified separately in the thorium model. According to the lead model, the approximate
contents of various regions at 1 d after injection of long-lived lead into an adult are as follows:
red blood cells, 59% (of the injected amount); bone, 15%; liver, 11%; kidneys, 5%; other soft
tissues, 3%; and excreta plus excretion pathways, 7%. Over the next few weeks there is a
gradual shift of lead from red blood cells to bone, soft tissues, and excreta. By 100 d after
injection, the predicted contents of the regions are as follows: red blood cells, 4% (of the
injected amount); bone, 22%; liver, 5%; kidneys, 2%; other soft tissues, 5%; and excreta, 62%.
4. The model for polonium as a decay chain member is based on the non-recycling model for
polonium as a parent given in ICRP Publication 67 (1993), but the latter model is converted
into a recycling model to fit into the framework used for thorium, radium, and lead. Removal
of polonium from all tissues except bone volume is assumed to occur at a fractional rate of
0.1 d"1, with activity going to plasma. Removal from bone volume to plasma is assumed to
occur at the rate of bone turnover. Of polonium reaching plasma, 10% goes to the
gastrointestinal tract contents and subsequently to feces and 5% goes to the urinary bladder
contents and then to urine. The unexcreted amount is divided as follows: 30% to liver, 10%
to kidneys, 5% to spleen, 10% to red marrow, and 45% to other tissues.
5. Bismuth is assumed to be removed from all tissues except bone volume at a fractional rate of
0.035 d'1, with activity going to plasma. From plasma, 35% goes to urine, 7% to feces via the
intestines, 35% to the kidneys, 5% to the liver, and 18% to other tissues.
6. Isotopes of thallium appearing in important thorium chains are short-lived and are assumed
to decay at their point of origin, and isotopes of actinium, protoactinium, and thorium
produced in vivo are assigned the model for thorium.
The treatment of decay chain members is a particularly important consideration in the
internal dosimetry of 232Th due to the fact that the radioactive progeny of 232Th emit substantially
more alpha energy than the parent over a period of a few years. The estimated alpha activity of the
total chain is reduced substantially if it is assumed, as indicated by available experimental data, that
^Ra and subsequent chain members migrate over a period of hours or days from sites of production
on bone surfaces and in soft tissues and then behave as if injected directly into blood (Table C.3).
Comparison of updated and previous systemic models for thorium
C-12
-------
The ICRP's new systemic biokinetic model for thorium differs substantially from its previous
model (ICRP, 1979) with regard to basis, structure, and predictions. The previous model consists
of three tissue compartments fed by a transfer compartment (Fig. C.4). On the basis of observations
C-13
-------
Table C.3. Comparison of estimated 50-y integrated activities of 232Th and its
decay chain members, assuming (A) independent or (B) shared kinetics of
decay chain members, for the case of injection of 232Th into blood of an adult8.
Ratio of integrated activities, A:B
Radionuclide
232Th
^Ra, ""Ac
zzajh
224 Do fhr/MinK 206TI
rva inrougn 1 1
Cortical
bone
surface
1.0
0.001
0.02
-0.005
Trabecular
bone
surface
1.0
0.003
0.06
-0.02
Cortical
bone
volume
1.0
0.9
0.8
-0.8
Trabecular
bone
volume
1.0
0.7
0.5
-0.5
Red
bone
marrow
1.0
0.08
0.2
-0.1
Liver
1.0
0.04
0.06
-0.05
Testes,
ovaries
1.0
0.05
0.05
-0.05
"The biokinetic model for thorium given in ICRP Publication 69 (ICRP, 1995a) is applied to 23th. For the case of
independent kinetics, the models and assumptions of ICRP Publication 69 are applied to the radioactive progeny of
232Th.
of the fate of 228Th in beagles (Stover et al.,
1960), it is assumed in that model that activity
leaves the transfer compartment with a
half-tune of 0.5 d, with 70% depositing on
bone surfaces, 4% depositing hi the liver, 16%
depositing hi other soft tissues, and 10% lost
hi excreta. Thorium is assumed to be removed
from bone surfaces to excretion with a
biological half-tune of 8000 d and from liver
and other soft tissues to excretion with a
biological half-time of 700 d. The assumption
that skeletal deposits remain on bone surfaces
until removed to excretion is generally applied
hi ICRP Publication 30 to actinide elements.
Compared with the model of ICRP Publication 30, the new model predicts considerably
longer retention of thorium in the skeleton, liver, and other soft tissues, and consequently much
longer retention in the total body of the adult. For example, the model of Publication 30 predicts that
TRA
EXC
NSFER COMPARTMENT (BLOOD)
70% 4% 16%
V V 1
BONE LIVER OTHER
8000 d 700 d 700 d
1 i V 1 ' '
10%
RET10N
Fig. C.4. Biokinetic model for thorium
given in ICRP Publication 30 (1979).
C-14
-------
about 75% of an amount injected into blood at time zero will be excreted in 10,000 days, compared
with a prediction of about 30% based on the new model (Fig. C.5).
In the model of ICRP Publication 30, the time-dependent concentration of thorium in kidneys
and gonads is assumed to be the same as that in all soft tissues other than liver. In the new model,
the kidneys and gonads are addressed separately from other soft tissues and are depicted as relatively
important repositories for thorium. This is demonstrated in Table C.4, where comparisons are made
of the updated and previous models as predictors of the 50-y cumulative activity of 232Th and 228Ra
in selected organs of an acutely exposed adult. Three types of acute intake are considered in this
table: injection of 232Th into blood, ingestion of 232Th, and inhalation of a moderately soluble form
of 232Th (Type M or class W, respectively, in the updated and previous respiratory tract models).
The assumption of independent kinetics of decay chain members is used in conjunction with the
updated systemic model, and the assumption of shared kinetics is used with the systemic model of
ICRP Publication 30.
Conversion of activity to estimates of dose rates to tissues
SE values
The dose rate to a target region T due to activity in a source region S depends on the amount
of activity in S, the nature of the radiations emitted in the source region, the spatial relationships
between the source and target regions, the nature of the tissues between the regions, and the mass
of T. As discussed in Chapter 5, the details of these considerations are embodied in a coefficient
called the specific energy or SE.
The ICRP's updated SE values for the adult male generally do not differ substantially from
those applied to Reference Man in ICRP Publication 30 (1979), but there are notable exceptions.
The most important exception is for the lung as a target region. In ICRP Publication 30, the dose
to the lung is an average dose over the entire lung tissue. In ICRP Publication 66 (1994a), the dose
to the lung is redefined as a weighted average of doses to sensitive cells of the bronchi, bronchioles,
and alveolar-interstitium, with the relatively small mass of cells of the bronchi and bronchioles
receiving greater weight that the relatively large mass of the alveolar-interstitium. The two
definitions of lung dose can result in substantially different estimates, particularly for radionuclides
that emit mainly non-penetrating radiations. This is because the new definition assigns much greater
importance to the generally small fraction of the total activity in the lungs that is associated with the
C-15
-------
g100
! 80
i»
>> 40
o
'S. 20
IOHP Pub. 69
ICRP Pub. 30
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Time after injection (d)
gsioo
O 80
1 60
CO
- 40
c
o
1 20
O
D? 0,
ICRP Pub. 89
ICRP Pub, 30
5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
Time after injection (d)
§2
*s
21
o
oc
ICRP Pub. 69
\ICRPPUb.30
2000 4000 6000 8000
Time after injection (d)
10000
Retention in other soft tissues(%)
-A -1. IO
O CJ1 O CJ1 O
\ ^ ICRP Pub, 69
\JCRP Pub, 30
) 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Time after injection (d)
Fig. C.5. Comparison of predictions of ICRP's updated (ICRP, 1995a)
and previous (ICRP, 1979) systemic biokinetic models for thorium.
radiosensitive cells of the bronchi and bronchioles. For example, for the case of acute inhalation of
a moderately soluble form of 232Th (Type M) by an adult, the estimated activity of all chain
members in the alveolar-interstitium (regional) at 50 d after inhalation is about a factor of 40 greater
than that in the bronchioles (region bb, Fig. 4.1). Yet the estimated dose rate to bronchiolar secretory
cells from high-LET radiation at that time is nearly twice as great as that to AI as a result of the
small mass assigned to the bronchiolar secretory cells.
For purposes of calculating radiogenic risk to members of the public, an important advance
in internal dosimetry in recent years has been the introduction of age-specific SE values. SE values
for most pairs of source and target organs vary substantially with age due to changes with age in the
C-16
-------
Table C.4. Comparison of ICRP's updated (ICRP, 1995a) and previous (ICRP, 1979)
models as predictors of 50-y integrated activity after acute intake of 232Th by an adult.
Ratio of
integrated activities (updated models : previous models)
Injection
Compartment
Trabecular surfaces
Cortical surfaces
Liver
Kidneys
Gonads
Other systemic activity
232Th
0.49
2.3
11
110
60
25
228Raa
0.0014
0.0026
1.4
9.0
8.9
56
Ingestion
232Th
1.2
5.7
27
280
150
62
228Raa
0.0036
0.0064
3.5
23
22
140
Inhalation
232Th
0.39
1.8
8.4
86
47
19
228Raa
0.0011
0.0020
1.0
7.0
7.0
42
Refers to 228Ra produced in the body after intake of 232Th.
masses of target organs and, in some cases, in
the relative geometries of the source and target
organs during growth.
Changes with age in SE values for
232Th are illustrated in Fig. C.6 for the red
marrow as a target organ and for each of three
source organs: Trabecular Bone Surface (TS),
Red Marrow (RM), and Trabecular Bone
Volume (TV). In Fig. C.6, SE(T,S) indicates
the SE value for target organ T and source
organ S. The indicated SE values are for
high-LET (alpha) radiation, which is the
dominant radiation type for 232Th. The
decrease with age in the SE values result from an increase with age in the mass of Red Marrow (Fig.
C.7).
Specific energy (Gy/nt)
3 O O O O
h-^
, ... SE(RM.TS)
'"0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Age (y)
Fig. C.6. Age-specific SE values (high-LET) for
232Th. RM = Red Marrow, TS = Trabecular Bone
Surface, TV = Trabecular Bone Volume.
C-17
-------
Use of SE values to calculate dose rates
The calculation of dose rates is
illustrated for the case of high-LET (alpha)
irradiation of Red Marrow from internally
deposited 232Th. Due to the short range of the
alpha particles, the contributing source organs
in this case are those in intimate contact with
Red Marrow, namely, Red Marrow,
Trabecular Bone Surface, and Trabecular
Bone Volume.
Recall that for a given type of
radiation, the absorbed dose rate, D?(i), at age
/ in target region T can be expressed as:
Z>r(0
=
10 15 20
Age (y)
25
30
Fig. C.7. Estimated weight of red
marrow as a function of age.
(C.I)
where q^t) is the activity of radionuclidey present in source region S at age t and SE(T~S;t)j is the
specific energy deposited in target region Tper nuclear transformation of radionuclide./ in source
region S at age t. Therefore, the high-LET dose rate D ^t) to Red Marrow from 232Th (excluding
radioactive progeny) at age t due to intake of 232Th at age to is the sum
W0 SE(RM<-RM;t) + qrs(t) SE(RM~TS;t)
+ qTV(t) SE(RM<-TV;t),
(C.2)
where the three SE values are as indicated (with abbreviated notation) in Fig. C.6. According to the
biokinetic and dosimetric models used here, the right side of Eq. C.2 usually is dominated by the
term involving Trabecular Bone Surface as a source organ (second term). Although all alpha
particles emitted hi Red Marrow are assumed to be absorbed by Red Marrow, the contribution to
D^t) from Red Marrow typically is much smaller than the contribution from Trabecular Bone
Surface for the case of 232Th because the predicted number of thorium atoms contained in Red
C-18
-------
Marrow at a given time typically is much
smaller than the number of thorium atoms in
Trabecular Bone Surface. Although the
predicted number of thorium atoms in
Trabecular Bone Volume may be larger than
that in Trabecular Bone Surface at some ages,
the contribution to!) /^/^ .from Trabecular Bone
Volume (third term in Eq. C.2) typically is
smaller than the contribution from Trabecular
Bone Surface because SE(RM+-TV;t) is much
smaller than SE(RM~TS;t) (Fig. C.6). The
relationship between the three terms on the right
side of Eq. C.2 as a function of time after acute
injection of 232Th is illustrated in Fig. C.8 for
the adult. It is emphasized that the curves in
Fig. C.8 represent only the contribution of the
parent, 232Th, to the high-LET dose rate to Red
Marrow. The total high-LET dose rate to Red
Marrow will also include contributions from the
radioactive progeny of 232Th contained in the
Red Marrow, Trabecular Bone Surface, and
Trabecular Bone Volume.
Calculated high-LET dose rates to Red
Marrow for the cases of acute ingestion and
acute inhalation of 1 Bq of 232Th are shown in
Figs. C.9 and C.10, respectively, for three ages
at intake: infancy (100 d), 10 y, and 25 y. The
dose rates indicated in these figures include
contributions from radioactive progeny of 232Th
as well as from the parent radionuclide. Due to
migration of 228Ra and subsequent chain
members from the parent, however, 232Th is the
major contributor to the indicated dose rates.
I
mm-
DC
2 10'5
0
£ io-«
O
810-
a
?10'=
' From Trabecular Bone Surface
r *
: 1 .,'' *«..,
}.-"
,'' x* \ *"''***'
: ,.''' ,,'"'From Trabecular Bone
'/' ./' Volume
J8 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
oc Time after injection (d)
Fig. C.8. Contributions of 232Th in Trabecular Bone
Surface, Trabecular Bone Volume, and Red Marrow to
the high-LET dose rate to Red Marrow in the adult.
,-. 10-'
m
a
o
Q
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000100000
Time since ingestion (d)
Fig. C.9. Estimated dose rates to Red Marrow
following acute ingestion of 232Th,
for three ages at ingestion.
io-
o-
CO
^ 10'8
>s
o,
a
'g 10-'°
IB
in
o
° 1 0-"
Infant
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Time since inhalation (d)
Fig. C.10. Estimated dose rates to Red Marrow
following acute inhalation of moderately soluble
232Th, for three ages at inhalation.
C-19
-------
Conversion of dose rates to estimates of radiogenic cancers
The age-specific cancer risk attributable to a unit intake of a radionuclide is calculated from
the absorbed dose rate due to a unit intake of the radionuclide and the age-specific risk per unit dose
model coefficients. The calculation is specific for each cancer and associated absorbed dose site in
the risk model. The complete calculation for each cancer and associated dose site may involve the
sum of contributions from more than one target tissue and from both low-and high-LET absorbed
doses.
In the following, attention is focused on the problem of estimating the risk of dying from
radiogenic leukemia following intake of 232Th. That is, the problem is one of deriving a mortality
risk coefficient for leukemia for ingestion or inhalation of 232Th. In this case, the target organ of
interest is red marrow. The risk model used in this report for leukemia is a relative risk model, with
age- and gender-specific risk model coefficients.
Recall that the age-specific lifetime risk coefficient (LRC), r(x), is the risk per unit dose of
a subsequent cancer death (Gy1) due to radiation received at age x. For a relative risk model, the
LRC for a given contribution is
w) S(u) du
(C.3)
where r\(u,x) is the relative risk at age u due to a dose received at age x, u
-------
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Time since exposure (y)
Fig. C.I 1. Relative risk functions, T[(U,X), for
leukemia in males for three ages at irradiation.
Relative risk functions r\(u,x) for
radiogenic leukemia in males are shown in
Fig. C.I 1 for three ages at irradiation: infancy
(100 d), 10 y, and 25 y. The functions for
females are similar to those for males but are
not identical because the risk model
coefficients, P(x), differ slightly for the two
genders (Table 7.2).
The gender-specific force of mortality
functions for leukemia are shown in Fig. C.I2
(NCHS, 1992, 1993a, 1993b), and the
gender-specific survival functions S(x) (all
causes of death) are shown in Fig. C.I3
(NCHS, 1997). The LRC functions r(x) for
radiogenic leukemia in males and females,
calculated by integrating the product of the
functions r\(u,x), \n(u), and S(x) from age x to
infinity (age 120 y), are shown in Fig. C.I4.
The sharp changes in direction in the LRC
functions at some ages stem mainly from
jumps in the risk model coefficients P(5c) for
leukemia at those ages (Table 7.2).
The LRC function r(x) is based on a
unit dose received at age x. Following intake
of a radionuclide at age xt, the absorbed dose
rate D(x) to a given target tissue varies
continuously with age x > x,. The cancer risk ra(x^ resulting from a unit intake of a radionuclide at
age x, is calculated from the continuously varying absorbed dose rate D (x) using the equation:
10-3
10-
.^10-5
10-
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90100110120
Age (y)
Fig. C.I2. Age- and gender-specific mortality
rates for leukemia, based on U.S. data for
1989-91 (NCHS, 1992, 1993a, 1993b).
(D(x)r(x)S(x)dx
(C.4)
C-21
-------
_ 1.00
0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90100110120
Age (y)
Fig. C.13. Gender-specific survival functions based
on U.S. life tables for 1989-91 (NCHS, 1997).
,£-0.015
where r(x) is the cancer risk due to a unit
absorbed dose (Gy"1) at the site at age x. The
functions S(x) and r(x) in the integrand are
shown hi Figs. C.13 and C.14, respectively.
The dose rate function D (x) hi the integrand is
illustrated hi Fig. C.9 for ingestion of 232Th
and in Fig. C.10 for inhalation of moderately
soluble 232Th at age 100 d, 10 y, or 25 y.
Derived gender-specific risks ra(x^ of
dying from radiogenic leukemia due to acute
ingestion of 232Th are shown hi Fig. C.I5 for
ingestion ages from birth through old age.
Model predictions for the case of acute
inhalation of 232Th are shown hi Fig. C.I6.
The derived values ra(x,) for males and females
are combined into a risk estimate for the total
population of age x{ by calculating a weighted
mean that accounts for the proportion of each
sex in a stationary combined population at the
desired age of intake (see Chapter 7, Eq. 7.7).
For a given gender, the average
lifetime leukemia risk coefficient for a
ingestion or inhalation of 232Th is calculated
from the derived age- and gender-specific
values, ra(x). Because ra(x) is based on acute
intake of 1 Bq of 232Th at age x, ra(x) must be
scaled by (that is, multiplied by) the age-specific intake rate, Cu(x) , where C is the constant
radionuclide concentration hi the environmental medium and u(x) is the usage rate at age x as
specified in the usage scenario. The product u(x)ra(x) must be further scaled by the value of the
survival function at x, S(x), to account for the possibility that the exposed person will die from a
competing cause before reaching age x. Therefore, for a given gender, the estimated risk of dying
from leukemia due to lifetime intake of 232Th is the integral over age from birth to the maximum
possible value of x (assumed here to be 120 y) of the product Cu(x) ra(x) S(x). Because a risk
coefficient is expressed as risk per unit intake, the integral of C u(x) ra(x) S(x) must be divided by
1 0.000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100110120
Age at irradiation (y)
Fig. C.14. Gender-specific lifetime risk coefficient
(LRC) functions for radiogenic leukemia.
C-22
-------
« 10'9
*c
I10'10
.310-'3
.Male
Ingestion
S
Female
20 40 60 80 100 120
Age at ingestion (y)
Fig. C.I5. Derived gender-specific risk ra(x-)
of dying from leukemia due to ingestion
of 1 Bq of 232Th in food at age jc,
10-7
10-8
i 10's
10-
,-Male
Inhalation
Female
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Age at inhalation (y)
Fig. C.I6. Derived gender-specific risk ra(x
of dying from leukemia due to inhalation
of 1 Bq of 232Th (Type M) at age jc,.
the probable lifetime intake of 232Th. Because the probable intake rate at age x is Cu(x) times the
probability S(x) of surviving to age x, the probable lifetime intake of 232Th is the integral over age
of the product Cu(x)S(x). Therefore, for a given gender, the average lifetime leukemia risk
coefficient for ingestion or inhalation of 232Th is given by:
ju(x)ra(x)S(x)dx
(C.5)
fu(x) S(x)
dx
The radionuclide concentration in the environmental medium, C, disappears from the equation
because it is a factor in both numerator and denominator.
Gender-weighted average lifetime risk coefficients for ingestion of 232Th are indicated in the
bar graph in Fig. C.I 7, and risk coefficients for inhalation of a moderately soluble form of 232Th are
indicated in the bar graph in Fig. C. 18. These two figures show the relative contributions of some
cancer-specific risk coefficients, including that for leukemia, to the total combined risk coefficient
for ingestion or inhalation of 232Th. Shown for comparison are risk coefficients for 232Th based on
the risk methodology described in this report but using the biokinetic models and assumptions of
ICRP Publication 30 (1979).
C-23
-------
ICRP 69 models
ICRP 30 models
bone leukemia colon other total
Fig. C.I7. Gender-weighted average lifetime
risk coefficients for ingestion of 232Th in food,
using updated (ICRP, 1995a) and previous
(ICRP, 1979) biokinetic models for thorium.
ICRP 69 models
ICRP 30 moae s
Inhalation ol moderately
soluble *\h compound
bone leukemia lung other total
Fig. C.I8. Gender-weighted average lifetime risk
coefficients for inhalation of moderately soluble
232Th, using updated (ICRP, 1995a) and previous
(ICRP, 1979) biokinetic models for thorium.
Comparison with risk estimates based on effective dose
As a measure of the risk from intake of radionuclides, the ICRP uses a quantity called the
effective dose. The effective dose is a weighted sum of equivalent doses (that is, integrated
equivalent dose rates) to radiosensitive tissues, with tissue weighting factors representing the relative
contribution of each tissue to the total detriment for the case of uniform irradiation of the whole
body. The effective dose is based on an integration period of 50 years for intake by adults and to
age 70 years for intake by children.
The ICRP relates the effective dose to the probability of a fatal cancer through a
multiplicative factor called a "nominal fatality probability coefficient". This coefficient is referred
to as "nominal" because of the uncertainties inherent in radiation risk estimates and because the
ICRP's estimated relation of effective dose and fatal cancers is based on an idealized population
receiving a uniform equivalent dose over the whole body. A nominal fatality probability coefficient
of 0.05 Sv"1 is given in ICRP Publication 60 (1991) for all cancer types combined. According to
ICRP Publication 60, "If the equivalent dose is fairly uniform over the whole body, it is possible to
obtain the probability of fatal cancer associated with that effective dose from the nominal fatality
probability coefficient. If the distribution of equivalent dose is non-uniform, this use of the nominal
coefficient will be less accurate because the tissue weighting factors include allowances for non-fatal
and hereditary conditions." Another difficulty with the effective dose as a measure of risk is that
C-24
-------
it cannot accurately reflect the contribution of competing risks for the many different temporal
patterns of dose rates to tissues that occur for various long-lived, tenaciously retained radionuclides.
Despite such limitations in the effective dose, it is common practice to use the nominal
fatality probability coefficient to convert effective doses from internally deposited radionuclides to
estimates of fatal radiogenic cancers. The effective dose is taken by some analysts as the effective
dose equivalent of ICRP Publication 30 (1979,1980,1981,1988) as tabulated in Federal Guidance
Report No. 11 (1988), and is taken,by others from tabulations in the ICRP's recent series of
documents on doses to the public from intake of radionuclides (see summary report, ICRP
Publication 72,1996). Because the latter documents provide the effective dose as a function of age
at acute intake, the effective dose may be represented by a weighted average of age-specific effective
doses, where the weights reflect assumed levels of intake at different ages. Because such weighted
effective doses typically differ by <30% from the effective dose for intake by the adult, the latter is
generally applied.
Cancer mortality risk for ingestion of 232Th in food and for inhalation of a moderately soluble
form (Type M) of 232Th of particle size 1 [am (AMAD), as derived by the methods of this report, are
compared in Table C.5 with estimates derived from the effective dose, E (that is, as E x 0.05 Sv"1).
Two different estimates of effective dose are considered, one derived using the committed effective
dose coefficient from Federal Guidance Report No. 11 (1988) and the other derived using the
effective dose coefficient from ICRP Publication 72 (1996). (ICRP Publication 72 is a summary of
the tabulations of the ICRP's series of documents on age-dependent doses to members of the public
from intake of radionuclides.) Both estimates are based on an intake of 1 Bq. The two estimates are
abbreviated as 0.05 Sv"1 x E(FGR11) and 0.05 Sv'1 x E(ICRP72\ respectively. For simplicity,
E(ICRP72) is taken to be the effective dose for intake by the adult.
For the case of ingestion of 232Th in food, 0.05 Sv"1 x E(FGR11) is about three-fold higher
than 0.05 Sv"1 x E(ICRP72), and 15-fold higher than the risk based on the coefficient derived here
(Table C.5). The discrepancies between 0.05 Sv"1 x E(FGR11) and 0.05 Sv"1 x E(ICRP72) result
in part from differences in the new and previous biokinetic models for thorium (discussed earlier),
and in part from recent changes in the ICRP's tissue weighting factors (ICRP, 1991). The
discrepancies between 0.05 Sv"1 x E(ICRP72) and the risk coefficient are the net result of a variety
of factors, including the limitations of the effective dose as a measure of risk for non-uniformly
distributed radionuclides such as 232Th and its radioactive progeny, differences between the
high-LET RBEs for leukemia and breast cancer used in the present methodology and those used by
the ICRP, and the failure of the effective dose to account adequately for competing risks when the
organ doses are received over several decades.
C-25
-------
Table C.5. Comparison of cancer mortality risk coefficients with risk estimates based on
effective dose, for ingestion (food) or inhalation of 232Th (Type M, 1 urn AMAD).
Method
0.05 Sv'1 x E(FGR11f
0.05 Sv'1 x E(ICRP72)b
This report
Ingestion of 232Th
Multiple of value
Cancer mortality derived in this
risk (Bq~1) report
3.69E-08 15
1.15E-08 4.7
2.45E-09
Inhalation
Type M
Cancer mortality
risk (Bq-1)
2.22E-05
2.25E-06
5.18E-07
of232Th,
, 1 urn
Multiple of value
derived in this
report
43
4.3
-
*E(FGR11) is the effective dose given in Federal Guidance Report No. 11 (1988), which is based on models and
methods of ICRP Publication 30 (1979).
bE(ICRP72) is the effective dose for intake by the adult, based on models and methods of the ICRP's recent series of
documents on age-dependent dosimetry (ICRP 1989,1993,1995a, 1995b, 1996). Use of intake-weighted average of
age-dependent effective doses typically yields <30% difference from indicated values for commonly used age-specific
intake scenarios.
The discrepancies in the three methods of estimation of fatal cancers are even greater for the
case of inhalation of moderately soluble 232Th, for which 0.05 Sv"1 x E(FGR11) is 10-fold higher
than 0.05 Sv'1 x E(ICRP72) and 40-fold higher than the risk coefficient. The reasons for these
discrepancies are essentially the same as those described above for the ingestion case. The main
reason that relative differences between 0.05 Sv"1 x E(FGR11) and the other two estimates are
smaller in the ingestion case than in the inhalation case is that the new, higher/; values for thorium
offset part of the reduction in the estimate of effective dose for ingestion of 232Th implied by other
recent changes in the biokinetic models and tissue weighting factors. By contrast with model
revisions concerning the level of absorption of ingested thorium, the new respiratory tract model
predicts slightly lower absorption of inhaled material to blood than does the previous respiratory
tract model.
C-26
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APPENDIX D. ADJUSTMENT OF RISK COEFFICIENTS FOR
SHORT-TERM EXPOSURE OF THE CURRENT U.S. POPULATION
A risk coefficient given in Chapter 2 may be interpreted in terms of either chronic or acute
(short-term) exposures. That is, a coefficient may be viewed as the average risk per unit exposure
to persons exposed throughout life to a constant concentration of a radionuclide in an environmental
medium, or as the average risk per unit exposure hi populations exposed over a short period of time
to the radionuclide in the environmental medium.
The assumed gender and age distributions in the exposed population are those that would
eventually occur in a closed, steady-state population with male-to-female birth ratios characteristic
of recent U.S. data and with time-invariant survival functions defined by the 1989-91 U.S. decennial
life tables. Because of the uncertainty in the future composition of the U.S. population, the use of
a stationary or steady-state population based on recent U.S. vital statistics is judged to be appropriate
for consideration of long-term, chronic exposures to the U.S. population. However, these age
distributions differ substantially from those of the current U.S. population (Fig. D.I). Hence, the
question arises as to the applicability of the risk coefficients to short-term exposures of the U.S.
population that might occur in the near future.
The purpose of this appendix is to compare the risk coefficients tabulated in Chapter 2 with
coefficients derived for a short-term exposure of a hypothetical population with demographics based
on the current U.S. population and, on the basis of this comparison, develop scaling factors for
conversion of risk coefficients between the steady-state and current populations. As is the case for
the stationary population considered in the main body of the report, total mortality rates in this
hypothetical current population are defined by the 1989-91 U.S. decennial life table, and cancer
mortality rates are defined by U.S. cancer mortality rates for the same period. In contrast to the
stationary population, however, it is assumed that the gender-specific age distribution at the time of
exposure is the same as that of the U.S. population of 1996 (U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population
Division, 1997).
Computation of risk coefficients for the hypothetical current population
Short-term exposures are treated in the calculations as instantaneous exposures. For
example, in the solution of the biokinetic models, ingestion or inhalation of a radionuclide is
represented as an initial activity in the stomach compartment or in appropriate compartments of the
D-l
-------
2500
u
a
2000
1500
.o 1000
g- 500
OL
0
M(ss)
F(88)
M(1996)
F(1996)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90100110120
Age (y)
Fig. D.I. Comparison of gender-specific age-distributions in 1996 U.S.
population with hypothetical stationary (ss, for steady-state) distributions
based on 1989-91 U.S. life table. Normalized to values for age 0 y in 1996
U.S. population. M = males, F = females. Average age: M( 1996) = 34.2 y;
M(ss) = 38.1 y; F(1996) = 36.9 y; F(ss) = 41.1 y. Average life expectancy:
M(1996) = 41.3 y; M(ss) = 38.1 y; F(1996) = 44.7 y; F(ss) = 41.1 y.
respiratory tract, respectively. However, the derived risk coefficients are applicable to any short-
term exposure period (e.g., several days, weeks, or months) over which there are only small changes
in the gender and age distributions in the population. The coefficients for the hypothetical current
population should not be applied to exposure periods longer than a few years because of substantial
changes in the age distribution over long periods.
As described in Chapter 7, the average lifetime risk coefficient, ra, for continuous intake of
a radionuclide is calculated from the age- and gender-specific cancer risk coefficient, ra(x), by the
equation:
ju(x)ra(x)S(x)dx
fu(x) S(x) dx
0
(D.I)
D-2
-------
where u(x) is the gender-weighted usage rate, and S(x) is the gender-weighted survival function.
This equation was derived for a stationary population that is subject to fixed gender-specific survival
functions and cancer mortality rates. In such a population, the age distribution of a given gender is
proportional to the survival function S(x) for that gender. The derived risk coefficients may be
interpreted either in terms of lifetime exposure or acute exposure of this population to a radionuclide.
A similar analysis may be applied to the case of acute exposure of a population with an
arbitrary age distribution, if it is assumed that the exposed population is subject to fixed
gender-specific survival functions and fixed cancer mortality rates at all times after the exposure.
In this case, the relative age distribution, S(x), in Eq. D.I is replaced by a function P(x) representing
the age distribution of the population at the time of acute exposure. This change is needed because
usage of an environmental medium by members of age x in the hypothetical current population is
proportional to u(x)P(x) rather than u(x)S(x). The equation for the current population corresponding
to Eq. D.I for the stationary population is then
fu(x)ra(x)P(x)dx
r. =
(D.2)
fu(x)P(x)
dx
In applications of risk coefficients, it is sometimes necessary to estimate the average usage of
environmental media by the population (see Appendix E). Average daily usage values for the
hypothetical current population are given in Table D.I for the four environmental media considered
Table D.I. Average daily usage of environmental media by the two hypothetical populations.
Males
Medium
Air (m3)
Tap water (L)
Diet (kcal)
Cow's milk (L)
Stationary
19.2
1.29
2418
0.282
Current
19.8
1.25
2450
0.292
Females
Stationary
16.5
0.93
1695
0.207
Current
16.3
0.90
1717
0.214
Combined
Stationary
17.8
1.11
2048
0.243
Current
18.0
1.07
2075
0.252
D-3
-------
in the internal exposure scenarios. Corresponding values for the stationary population are provided
for comparison.
Lifetime risks for acute external exposures are calculated in a manner similar to that for
radionuclide intakes. Since the external exposure is not considered to be age dependent, the
calculation is simpler. As described in Chapter 7, the average lifetime risk, re, to members of a
stationary population from external exposure at a constant exposure rate can be calculated by
removing the usage function from Eq. D.I. That is,
\dx
re =
(D.3)
dx
where re(x) is the cancer risk coefficient at age x and S(x) is the survival function and hence the
relative age distribution hi the stationary population. For the hypothetical current population, the
relative age distribution, S(x), is replaced by the function P(x) representing the age distribution of
the population at the time of acute exposure. This change is needed because the total exposure to
members of the current population of age jc is proportional to P(x) rather than S(x). The equation for
the current population corresponding to Eq. D.3 for the stationary population is then
(D.4)
f
Comparison of coefficients for the current and stationary populations
Risk coefficients for short-term exposure of the hypothetical current (1996) population were
derived for all of the radionuclides and exposure scenarios considered in the main text (Chapters 1-7)
and compared with the values tabulated in Chapter 2. Risk coefficients for the current population
are consistently greater than the corresponding coefficients for the stationary population, with a
maximum difference of 16%. (Table D.2). For a given exposure scenario, the ratios of risk
D-4
-------
coefficients for the current and stationary populations are relatively insensitive to the radionuclide,
with all ratios falling within 3% and most falling within 1% of the mean ratio (Table D.2).
Therefore, the risk coefficients for the stationary population are reasonably good
approximations of the corresponding risk coefficients for short-term exposure of the current
population. A closer approximation may be obtained by scaling the coefficients for the stationary
population by the exposure-specific mean ratio given in Table D.2. For example, for consideration
of short-term inhalation of a radionuclide by the current population, the risk coefficient given in
Table 2.1 should be multiplied by 1.11, the mean ratio of inhalation risk coefficients for the current
and stationary populations (Table D.2). The scaled coefficient will usually be within 1%, and will
always be within 3%, of the risk coefficient derived directly for the current population.
Table D.2. Comparison of risk coefficients for the two hypothetical populations.
Environmental medium
Air (inhalation)
Tap water (ingestion)
Food (ingestion)
Milk (ingestion of radioiodine)
External exposure by submersion
Ratio of risk coefficients for acute exposure
current population : stationary population
Mean
1.11
1.14
1.10
1.09
1.11
Standard
deviation
0.008
0.013
0.008
0.006
0.007
Range
1.08-1.13
1.11-1.16
1.08-1.11
1.08-1.10
1.10-1.14
in contaminated air
External exposure to contaminated
ground plane
External exposure to soil contaminated to
infinite depth
1.11
1,11
0.008
0.005
1.10-1.13
1.10-1.13
D-5
-------
-------
APPENDIX E. SAMPLE CALCULATIONS
This appendix provides several sample calculations that illustrate how the tabulated risk
coefficients may be applied to different types of exposure. The simplistic exposure scenarios
considered here were selected for didactic purposes and are not intended to suggest or endorse
assumptions regarding the behavior of radionuclides in the environment.
The risk coefficients in this report represent estimated radiogenic cancer risk, either to a
stationary population defined by the 1989-91 U.S. decennial life tables (see Chapter 3) or (when
scaled as described in Appendix D) to a hypothetical current population with gender and age
distributions based on the total U.S. population in 1996. Risk coefficients for the stationary
population are intended mainly to apply to lifetime exposures to radionuclides but, as explained in
Chapters 1 and 3, may also be interpreted in terms of acute exposures. Because risk coefficients for
the hypothetical current population reflect actual age and gender distributions in the U.S. population
in 1996, these coefficients may be appropriate for consideration of short-term exposures (1 y or less)
to the current U.S. population or to a representative subpopulation.
For a selected exposure scenario, the computation of risk R involves multiplication of the
applicable risk coefficient r by iheper capita intake /or (external) exposureXfor external exposure.
That is, R = r /for intake by inhalation or ingestion and R = r Xfor external exposures, where X
denotes the time-integrated concentration of the radionuclide in air, on the ground surface, or within
the soil, and /is the activity inhaled or ingested per capita. Ingestion intakes in tap water and diet
are considered. A risk coefficient r is specific to the radionuclide and the mode of exposure or
intake. Usage rates for the examples in this appendix are taken from Table D.I.
Some radionuclides considered in this report form radioactive progeny, or daughter products,
when undergoing radioactive decay. A series of radionuclides formed by successive radioactive
decays is referred to as a decay chain, and the first member of the chain is referred to as the parent.
A risk coefficient given in this document does not include the contribution to dose from exposure
or intake of other radionuclides that might be present as daughter products in the environment.
However, for each radionuclide considered in this document, separate risk coefficients are provided
for all radioactive progeny that are considered to be of potential dosimetric significance. Thus, the
user may combine risk coefficients for different members of a radionuclide chain to derive a risk
coefficient that reflects growth of radioactive progeny in the environment over a user-selected time
period.
For example, when considering external exposure to 137Cs on the ground surface, it should
be assumed that its short-lived radioactive daughter, 137mBa (T1/2 = 2.552 m) is also present.
E-l
-------
Although the risk coefficient for external exposure to 137Cs on the ground surface does not consider
the presence of 137mBa, a separate risk coefficient is provided for external exposure to 137raBa on the
ground surface. As illustrated later in this appendix, an estimate of the risk from the mixture of
137Cs and 137mBa present on the ground surface may be obtained as a linear combination of the
separate risk coefficients for the two radionuclides.
For intake of a relatively long-lived radionuclide, the contribution to dose from its short-lived
radioactive progeny (defined here as radioactive progeny with a half-life shorter than 1 h) present
in the environment usually is insignificant compared with the dose from the parent. For this reason,
separate risk coefficients for ingestion and inhalation are not given for short-lived radioactive
progeny of the radionuclides considered in the internal exposure scenarios. For example, risk
coefficients are given for ingestion and inhalation of 137Cs but not for ingestion or inhalation of
137mBa
On the other hand, after intake of a parent radionuclide, the production and decay of even
short-lived radioactive progeny in the body may contribute significantly to organ doses. For this
reason, risk coefficients for ingested or inhaled radionuclides include all contributions to dose from
growth of chain members in the body.
Example 1. Suppose the concentration of 85Kr in the atmosphere in the environs of a fuel
reprocessing plant is 103 Bq m"3. Compute the average cancer risk (mortality and morbidity)
associated with lifetime external exposure to this level of airborne activity, assuming no
shielding by structures.
From Table 2.4, the mortality and morbidity' risk coefficients for external exposure to 85Kr
in air (submersion) are 7.23xl(T18 and l.OOxKT17 m3 Bq'1 s'1. The years of life lived (the life
expectancy at birth) in the stationary population is about 75.2 y (Table A. 1). The lifetime exposure
resulting from this airborne concentration is
'^1 75t2y 3.15
m3
= 2.37 x
Therefore, the estimated lifetime risks from the external exposure are
E-2
-------
Mortality: 2.37 x 10
12 Bq-s .
7.23 x 1(T18
m
Bq-s =
3
> x
Morbidity: 2.37 x 1012-5^L_i . I.QO x 10"17 2.4 x 10"5 .
Bq-s =
m
Example 2. As in Example 1, suppose the concentration of 85Kr in the atmosphere in the
environs of a fuel reprocessing plant is 103 Bq m "3. Compute the average cancer risk
(mortality and morbidity) associated with a one-year (3.15xl07 s) external exposure to this
level of airborne activity, assuming no shielding by structures and that the age distribution of
the population is similar to that of the 1996 U.S. population.
Because the age distribution of the population is similar to that of the 1996 U.S. population,
risk coefficients for the stationary population given in Table 2.4 will be scaled as indicated in
Appendix D for application to the hypothetical current population. From Table 2.4 the mortality and
morbidity risk coefficients for external exposure to 85Kr in air are 7.23xlO"18 and l.OOxlO"17
m3 Bq"1 s"1, respectively. From Table D.2, the scaling factor (mean ratio of risk coefficients for
hypothetical current and stationary populations) for this exposure scenario is 1.11. The scaled
mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for external exposure to 85Kr in air are 8.03xlO"18 and
1.11 xlO"17 m3 Bq"1 s"1, respectively. The exposure (time-integrated concentration) is
103
m
3.15 x 10's = 3.15 x
m
The estimated lifetime risks to the population as a consequence of the 1-y external exposure are
Mortality: 3.15 x
Morbidity: 3.15 x
m
m
8.03 x lO
i.ll x 10'17
'18
Bq-s =
2.5 x 10'7
Bq-s =
3.5 x i(r7 .
E-3
-------
11*7
Example 3. Suppose the ground surface was uniformly contaminated at time zero with Cs
at a level of 2 Bq m"2. Assume that radioactive decay is the only mechanism by which
contamination is reduced. (Reduction of the time-integrated exposure due to weathering is
ignored here for simplicity.) Compute the average lifetime cancer risk (mortality and
morbidity) resulting from external exposures during the first year following the initial
deposition, assuming no shielding and assuming that the age distribution of the exposed
population is similar to that of the 1996 U.S. population.
Cesium-137 (T1/2 = 30 y) forms 137mBa (T1/2 = 2.552 m) in 94.6% of its decays (see
Appendix A of EPA, 1993). Due to the short half-life of 137mBa, the concentration of 137mBa on the
ground surface will reach 1.89 Bq m"2 (0.946 2 Bq m"2) within a half hour after time zero and will
decline with the half-life of 137Cs.
11*7
From Table 2.4 the mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for external exposure to Cs
distributed on the ground surface are 3.96xlO'20 and 4.57x10'20 m2 Bq'1 s"1. For 137mBa the
corresponding coefficients are 3.12xlO'17 and 4.60xlO'17 m2Bq'1 s"1, respectively. From Table D.2,
the scaling factor (mean ratio of risk coefficients for hypothetical current and stationary populations)
for external exposure from ground surface contamination is 1.11. The scaled mortality and
morbidity risk coefficients for 137Cs are 4.40xlO'20 and 5.0?xlO'20 m2Bq"1 s"1, respectively, and the
scaled values for 137mBa are 3.46xlO"17 and 5.1 IxlO'17 m2 Bq'1 s'1, respectively. The exposures
(time-integrated concentration) for each radionuclide during the first year are
-In 2 t
Exposure = A0 fe TIIZ dt =
0 J
An T
-In 2
1/2
In 2
1 -
Cs-137:
Ba-137m:
1.89
3.15 x 107-
0.693
- e
3.15 x 107-
m'
0.693
-0.693 ly'
3°y I = 6.23
m'
- e
-0.693
30y
= 5.89
m
The lifetime risks resulting from external exposures during the first year are
E-4
-------
Mortality:
6.23 x 107
m
m
Morbidity:
m
.40 x K
3.46 x
20
Bq-s
Bq-s =
2.0 x 1<10~2 Gy"1 for uniform irradiation of the body by
low-LET radiation. Assuming an average lifetime of 75.2 years (Table A.I) and, for estimation
purposes, equating the radiation unit R with rem, the expected lifetime dose due to this radiation
field is
4 x i(T6 1 £551 75.2 y 8.76 x 103 0.01 -^- « 2.64 x 10"2 Gy
h R y rem
and the mortality risk is about
2.64xlO~2Gy 5.75 x 10~2 Gy ~* « 1.5x10'
E-5
-------
Example 5. Calculate the average lifetime risk to the stationary population associated with
ingestion of 210Pb and its radioactive progeny, assuming that the per capita dietary intake rates
210
-1
of """Pb and zluPo are 1.4 and 1.8 pCi d , respectively.
Lead-210 decays to 210Bi (T1/2 = 5.012 d), which decays to 210Po (T1/2 = 138.8 d) . Because
of the relatively short half-life of 210Bi, it seems reasonable to assume that 210Bi is in equilibrium
with 210Pb in diet.
From Table A.1, the average life expectancy is 27,448 d (75.2 y). Therefore, lifetime intakes
of 210Pb, 210Bi, and 210Po in the diet are estimated to be
pCi.
Pb-210/Bi-210: 1.4-^^-3.7x10
d pCi
-2 J!S_. 27,448 d = 1.4xl03Bq
Po-210: 1. 8 -- 3.7 xlO"2-
d pCi
- 27,448 d = 1.8xl03Bq
The following mortality and morbidity risk coefficients for 210Pb, 210Bi, and 210Po in diet are taken
from Table 2.3a: 210Pb, 2.31xlO'8 and 3.18xl(T8, respectively; 210Bi, 1.95xl
-------
Example 6. Assume a concentration of tritium hi drinking water of 10 pCi L'1. Compute the
average lifetime risk (mortality and morbidity) associated with use of tap water at this
concentration, assuming that aU tritium in tap water is in the form of tritiated water.
The average intake of tap water is 1.11 L d"1 (Table D. 1), and the average life expectancy is
27,448 d (75.2 y, Table A.1), giving a lifetime intake of tap water of 3.0*104 L . From Table 2.2,
the mortality and morbidity coefficients for 3H (as tritiated water) in tap water are 9.44* 10~13 and
1.37xlO"12Bq"1, respectively. Therefore, the estimated risks are
Mortality: 10 ^ 0.037 -^ 3.0 x 104 L -9.44 x 10"13 = 1.0 x 10"8
L pCi Bq
Morbidity: 10 ^--0.037 -^ -3.0 x 104L -1.37 x 10"12 = 1.5x10"*
L pCi Bq
Example 7. Suppose there is a short-term release of 40 mCi of 13II as a vapor from a reactor
and that observed atmospheric conditions indicate an atmospheric dispersion factor of about
IxlO"6 s m"3 for a nearby population. Compute the risk associated with inhalation of I as
the cloud passes over the population, assuming that the age distribution of the population is
similar to that of the stationary population considered in the main text.
The time integrated airborne concentration in the cloud is
40 mCi- 3.7x1O7-8-^--
mCi
1.0 xlQ~6 = 1.4*
m3
m
The average inhalation intake rate is 17.8 m3 d"1 (Table D.I). The mortality and morbidity
coefficients for inhalation of 131I in vapor form are 1.48xl(T10 and 1.36xlO'9 Bq'1 (Table 2.1).
Therefore, the estimated risks are
Mortality: 1.48xlO;
Bq-s
17.8
m
1 d
m'
Morbidity: 1.48 x 103
17.8
m
m
1.48 x 10"10 = 4.5 x 10".11
8.64xl04s Bq
1.36 x 10~9 = 4.1 xlQ-10 .
8.64xl04s Bq
E-7
-------
-------
GLOSSARY
Absolute risk hypothesis: The assumption that the excess risk from radiation exposure adds to the
underlying (baseline) risk by an increment dependent on dose but independent of the underlying risk.
Absorbed dose (D): The microscopic quantity is the differential de/dm, where de is the mean
energy imparted by ionizing radiation to matter of mass dm. The macroscopic quantity used in
internal dosimetry is tissue-averaged; that is, the absorbed dose to a tissue is the total energy
absorbed by the tissue, divided by the mass of the tissue. The special name for the SI unit of
absorbed dose (J kg"1) is gray (Gy). The conventional unit of absorbed dose is the rad. 1 rad = 0.01
Gy.
Absorption type: In the ICRP's respiratory tract model introduced in 1994, a classification scheme
for inhaled material according to its rate of absorption from the deep lungs to blood. Three main
absorption types are considered: Type F (fast rate), Type M (moderate rate), and Type S (slow rate).
Absorbed fraction (AF): The fraction of energy emitted as a specified radiation type in a specified
source region that is absorbed in a specified target region.
Activity: The quantity of a radioactive nuclide present at a particular time, expressed in terms of
the mean rate of nuclear transformations. The special name for the SI unit of activity (s"1) is
becquerel (Bq). The conventional unit of activity is the curie (Ci). 1 Ci =3.7xl010Bq.
Activity Median Aerodynamic Diameter (AMAD): The diameter of a unit density sphere with the
same terminal settling velocity in air as that of an aerosol particle whose activity is the median for
the entire aerosol.
Acute exposure: For purposes of computing risk coefficients, an instantaneous exposure. For
practical applications of risk coefficients, any relatively short-term exposure period over which there
are numerically trivial changes in the body mass, biokinetic parameters, usage functions, and
mortality rates of all, or nearly all, members of the population.
Alpha particle: Two neutrons and two protons bound as a single particle (helium nucleus), emitted
from the nucleus of certain radionuclides during nuclear transformations.
G-l
-------
Baseline cancer rate: The observed cancer mortality (or morbidity) rate in a population in the
absence of the specific radiation exposure being studied.
Bccquerel (Bq): The special name for the SI unit of activity. 1 Bq = 1 s" .
Beta particle: A particle having the charge and mass of an electron, emitted from the nucleus of
certain radionuclides.
Biokinetic model: A mathematical description of the time-dependent distribution and translocation
of a substance in the body.
Body Tissues (BT): The entire body, minus the contents of the gastrointestinal tract, the urinary
bladder, the gall bladder, and the heart. Formerly called Whole Body (WB).
Bone Surface: The soft tissues within 10//m of the endosteal (interior) surfaces of,bone.
Brcmsstrahlung: Electromagnetic radiation produced when deceleration of electrons in a medium
results in conversion of a small fraction of their initial kinetic energy into photons.
Chain members: The sequence of radionuclides formed by successive nuclear transformations,
beginning with a radionuclide referred to as the parent.
Chronic exposure: In this report, protracted exposure to a constant concentration of a radionuclide
in a given environmental medium.
Committed equivalent dose: The time integral of the equivalent dose rate.
Committed effective dose: Sometimes shortened to "effective dose"; the time integral of the
effective dose rate.
Competing cause of death: Any cause of death other than radiogenic cancers attributed to the
radionuclide intake or external radiation exposure under consideration.
Cortical bone, compact bone: Bone with a surface-to-volume ratio less than 60 cm2 cm'3.
G-2
-------
Curie (Ci): The conventional unit of activity. 1 Ci = 3.7x1 Q10Bq.
Daughter radionuclide: A radionuclide formed by the nuclear transformation of another
radionuclide referred to, in this context, as its parent.
DCAL: Acronym for DOSE CALCULATION System, the software used to compute the risk
coefficients tabulated in this document
DDREF: A factor used to account for an apparent decrease of the risk of cancer per unit dose at low
doses or low dose rates for most cancer sites compared with observations made at high, acutely
delivered doses.
Dose coefficient, dose factor: The committed equivalent dose to a tissue, or the committed effective
dose, per unit intake of a radionuclide.
DOE: U.S. Department of Energy.
Effective dose (£): The sum over specified tissues of the products of the equivalent dose in a tissue
or organ (T) and the weighting factor for that tissue, w7, that is, E = S \VT HT. Lower-case e is
used in ICRP documents to denote an effective dose coefficient, that is, effective dose per unit intake
of a radionuclide at a given age. The special name for the SI unit of effective dose (J kg"1) is sievert
(Sv). The conventional unit of effective dose is the rem. 1 rem = 0.01 Sv.
EPA: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Equivalent dose (IT): The product of the absorbed dose (D) and the radiation weighting factor (w^).
Lower-case h is used in ICRP documents to denote a dose coefficient, that is, a committed equivalent
dose per unit intake of a radionuclide at a given age. The special name for the SI unit of equivalent
dose (J kg"1) is sievert (Sv). The conventional unit of equivalent dose is the rem. 1 rem = 0.01 Sv.
External exposure: Exposure to radiations emitted by radionuclides outside the body.
/;: The fraction of a radionuclide reaching the stomach that would be absorbed to blood during
passage through the gastrointestinal tract without radiological decay.
G-3
-------
Federal Guidance: Principles, policies, and numerical primary guides, approved by the President
upon recommendation of the Administrator of EPA, for use by Federal agencies as the basis for
developing and implementing regulatory standards.
Force of mortality: The age- and gender-specific mortality (or hazard) rate coefficient, y, (y"'), for
a cause of death. The probability that an individual alive at age x will die of that cause before
attaining age x + dx is equal to \idx.
FRC: The former U.S. Federal Radiation Council, whose functions now reside with the
Administrator of EPA.
Gamma radiation, gamma rays: Short wavelength electromagnetic radiation of nuclear origin,
similar to x rays but usually of higher energy.
Gastrointestinal tract model: A model of the translocation of swallowed material through the
stomach and intestines.
Gray (Gy): The special name for the SI unit of absorbed dose. 1 Gy = 1 J kg'1.
Half-time, biological: Time required for the quantity of a radionuclide in a compartment
representing all or a portion of the body to diminish by 50% without radiological decay or any
additional input to the compartment.
Half-life, radioactive: Time required for a radionuclide to lose 50% of its activity by spontaneous
nuclear transformations (radiological decay).
HTO: Tritiated water.
ICRP: International Commission on Radiological Protection.
Independent kinetics of decay chain members: The assumption that each decay chain member
produced in the body may have biokinetic behavior that is different from that of the radionuclide
taken into the body.
G-4
-------
Internal exposure: Exposure to radiations emitted by radionuclides distributed within the body.
Ionizing radiation: Any radiation capable of removing electrons from atoms or molecules, thereby
producing ions.
In utero exposure: Radiation exposure received in the womb, that is, before birth.
In vivo: In the living organism.
I-S: Inorganic sulfur.
Isotopes: Nuclides that have the same number of protons in their nuclei and hence the same atomic
number but differ in the number of neutrons and therefore in mass number.
Kerma: The kinetic energy transferred to charged particles per unit mass of irradiated medium
when indirectly ionizing (uncharged) particles such as photons or neutrons traverse the medium. The
special name for the SI unit of kerma (J kg"1) is gray (Gy).
LET: Average amount of energy lost per unit track length of an ionizing charged particle. Low LET
refers to radiation characteristic of light charged particles such as electrons produced by x rays and
gamma rays where the distance between ionizing events is large on the scale of a cellular nucleus.
High LET refers to radiation characteristic of heavy charged particles such as protons and alpha
particles where the distance between ionizing events is small on the scale of a cellular nucleus.
Lethality fraction: The fraction of radiogenic cancers of a given type that are fatal.
Life Table: A table showing the number of persons who, for a given number of live born, survive
to successively higher ages.
Lifetime risk coefficient (LRC): The risk per unit dose of a subsequent cancer death due to
radiation received at a given age.
Linear model, Linear dose-effect relationship: A model describing a radiogenic effect as a linear
function of dose.
G-5
-------
Linear-quadratic model, Linear-quadratic dose-effect relationship: A model describing a
radiogenic effect as a quadratic function of dose, D (that is, as a-D + b-D2, where a and b are
constants).
Low dose rate: For this report, an hourly averaged absorbed dose rate less than 0.1 mGy min'1.
Low dose: For this report, an acute absorbed dose less than 0.2 Gy.
Minimal latency period: The minimal time following a radiation dose before expression of a
radiogenic cancer.
Mortality rate: The age- and gender-specific or total rate at which people die from a specified cause
of death, or all causes combined.
MIRD: Medical Internal Radiation Dose; a committee of the Society of Nuclear Medicine.
Morbidity: The age- and gender-specific or total incidence of a specified disease in the population.
Multiplicative transport model: The assumption that the excess relative risk coefficient for a
radiogenic cancer is the same across populations.
NCHS: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics.
NCRP: U.S. National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements.
Neutron: Uncharged subatomic particle capable of producing ionization in matter by collision with
protons and through nuclear reactions.
NHANES III: A national dietary, health, and nutrition survey conducted by the National Center
for Health Statistics (NCHS) during the period 1988-1994.
NIH: U. S. National Institutes of Health.
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NIH transport model: The assumption that the relative risk model coefficients for the target
population should yield the same risks as those calculated with the additive risk model coefficients
from the original population over the period of epidemiological follow-up, excluding the minimal
latency period.
NRC: U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Nuclear transformation: The spontaneous transformation of one radionuclide into a different
nuclide or into a different energy state of the same nuclide.
OBT: Organically bound tritium.
OBS: Organically bound sulfur.
Other: In internal radiation dosimetry, an implicit source region, defined as the complement of the
set of explicitly identified regions, that is, Body Tissues minus the explicit source organs identified
in the biokinetic model.
Parent radionuclide: The first member of a chain of radionuclides. In an internal exposure
scenario, the radionuclide assumed to be taken into the body.
Per capital Averaged over the population.
Phantom: A mathematical model of the human body, used in radiation dosimetry to derive specific
absorbed fractions for penetrating radiations.
Plateau period: The time period following a radiation dose during which radiogenic cancers
likely to occur.
are
Probability coefficient (for radiological risk): A multiplicative factor used to convert a measure
of cumulative dose to a probability of a detrimental effect of radiation. As used by the ICRP, an
estimate of the radiation risk per unit effective dose. A probability coefficient is generally based
an idealized population receiving a uniform dose over the whole body.
on
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Rad: The conventional unit for absorbed dose of ionizing radiation. 1 rad = 0.01 Gy.
Radiation risk model: A mathematical model used to estimate the probability of experiencing a
radiogenic cancer as a function of tune after a radiation dose is received.
Radiation weighting factor (w*): The principal modifying factor employed in deriving equivalent
dose, H, from absorbed dose, D; chosen to account for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE)
of the radiation hi question, but to be independent of the tissue or organ under consideration, and of
the biological endpoint.
Radioisotope: A radioactive atomic species of an element with the same atomic number and usually
identical chemical properties.
Radionuclide: A radioactive species of atom characterized by the number of protons and neutrons
in its nucleus.
RBE: The relative biological effectiveness of a given type of radiation in producing a specified
biological effect, compared with 200-kV x rays.
Reference Man: A hypothetical average adult person with the anatomical and physiological
characteristics defined in the report of the ICRP Task Group on Reference Man (ICRP Publication
23).
Relative risk hypothesis: The assumption that the age-specific force of mortality or morbidity due
to a radiation dose is the product of an exposure-age-specific excess relative risk coefficient and the
corresponding baseline cancer mortality or morbidity rate.
Rem: The conventional unit of equivalent dose. 1 rem = 0.01 Sv.
RERF: Radiation Effects Research Foundation; a bi-nationally funded Japanese foundation
chartered by the Japanese Welfare Ministry under an agreement between the U.S. and Japan.
Residual cancers: A composite of all primary and secondary cancers not explicitly identified in a
radiogenic risk model.
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Respiratory tract model: A model of the deposition, retention, and translocation of particles in the
respiratory tract.
Risk model coefficient: An age- and gender-specific multiplicative factor appearing in a radiogenic
risk model and indicating the magnitude of the risk of dying from or experiencing a given type of
cancer at any given time after the dose is received.
Risk coefficient: For a given radionuclide, environmental medium, and mode of exposure, the
estimated probability of radiogenic cancer mortality or morbidity, per unit activity intake for internal
exposures or per unit exposure for external exposures.
SEECAL: A computer code used to calculate age-dependent specific energies based on standard
nuclear decay data files, libraries of specific absorbed fractions for photons and non-penetrating
radiations, and organ masses of reference humans of different ages.
Shared kinetics of decay chain members: The assumption that decay chain members produced
in the body have the same biokinetic behavior as the radionuclide taken into the body.
Shielding: Material between a radiation source and a potentially exposed person that reduces the
radiation field incident on the exposed person.
Short-lived radionuclide: In this report, a radionuclide having a half-life less than 1 h.
Sievert (Sv): The special name for the SI unit of equivalent dose. 1 Sv = 1 J kg"1.
Soft Tissues: Body Tissues minus cortical and trabecular bone.
Source organ, source region, source tissue (5): Any tissue or organ of the body, or the contents
of any organ, which contains a sufficient amount of a radionuclide to irradiate a target tissue (7)
significantly.
Specific energy SE(T-S)R: The energy per unit mass of target tissue (7), deposited in that tissue as
a consequence of the emission of a specified radiation (R) per nuclear transformation of a specified
radionuclide occurring in a source tissue (S).
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Stationary population, Steady-state population: A hypothetical closed population whose
gender-specific birth rates and survival functions remain invariant over time.
Submersion: External exposure to a radionuclide uniformly distributed in the air surrounding the
exposed person.
Surface-seeking radionuclides: Radionuclides that deposit on and remain for a considerable period
on the surface of bone structure.
Survival function: The fraction S(x) of live-born individuals in an unexposed population expected
to survive to age x.
Systemic biokinetic model: A model describing the distribution and translocation of a substance
after its absorption or injection into the systemic circulation.
Tap water: Drinking water, water added to beverages, and water added to foods during preparation
but not including water intrinsic in food as purchased.
Target organ, target region, target tissue (I): Any tissue or organ of the body in which radiation
is absorbed.
Threshold hypothesis: The assumption that no radiation injury occurs below a specified dose.
Time-since-exposure (TSE) function: A function that defines the period during which radiogenic
risk is expressed and any changes in the level of response during that period.
Tissue (organ) weighting factor (n>r): A factor indicating the relative level of risk of cancer
induction or heredity defects from irradiation of a given tissue or organ; used in calculation of
effective dose and committed effective dose.
Trabecular bone, cancellous bone: Bone with a surface-to-volume ratio greater than 60 cm2 cm'3.
Transportation of risk estimates: Extrapolation of radiogenic dose-response data from one
population to another.
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Transfer coefficient: In the context of a compartmental model, fractional flow per unit time from
one compartment to another.
Time since response function: A function describing the likely pattern of response as a function
of time after irradiation of a large population.
Usage rate: The age- and gender-specific average intake rate of a specified environmental medium
(air, food energy, tap water, or milk).
Volume-seeking radionuclides: Radionuclides that enter bone and exchange with bone mineral
over the entire mass of bone.
Volume source: Relative to a given biokinetic model, a source region that has non-zero volume.
x radiation, x rays: Penetrating electromagnetic radiation, usually produced by bombarding a
metallic target with fast electrons in a high vacuum, or emitted during rearrangement of the electrons
about the nucleus following nuclear transformation of a radionuclide.
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