EPA-450/2-74-020a
     BACKGROUND INFORMATION
FOR  STANDARDS OF PERFORMANCE:
    PRIMARY  ALUMINUM INDUSTRY
VOLUME 1:   PROPOSED STANDARDS
          Emission Standards and Engineering Division
          •U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
              Office of Air and Waste Management
           Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
          Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

                     October 1974

-------
This report is issued by the Environmental Protection Agency to report
technical data of interest to a limited number of readers.  Copies are
available free of charge to Federal employees, current contractors and
grantees, and nonprofit organizations - as supplies permit - from the Air
Pollution Technical Information Center, Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711;  or, for a fee, from the
National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield,
Virginia 22161.
                 Publication No.  EPA-450/2-74-020a
                                   II

-------
                             PREFACE
 A.   Purpose of this Report
      Standards of performance under, section 111  of the Clean
 Air-Act-/ are proposed only after a very detailed investigation
 of air pollution control  methods available to-the affected
 industry and the impact of their costs on the industry.  This
 report summarizes the information obtained from such a study of
 ,the primary aluminum industry.  It-is being distributed in
, connection with formal proposal of standards for that industry
 '.in the Federal Register.  Its purpose is to explain the
 background and basis of the proposal in greater detail, than
 could be included  in the  Federal Register, and to facilitate
- analysis of the proposal  by;interested persons, including those
 who may not be familiar with, the many technical aspects of  the
 industry.  For additional information, for copies of  documents
  (other than published  literature)  cited in the Background
 . Information Document,  or  to  comment  on the proposed standards,
  contact Mr. Don  R. Goodwin,  Director, Emission-Standards  and
  Engineering  Division,  United  States  Environmental Protection
  Agency,  Research,Triangle Park,  North Carolina  27711  [(919)688-8146],
  B.  -Authority for the  Standards
       Standards  of performance for new stationary sources  are
  promulgated  in  accordance with section  111  of the Clean  Air Act
  (42 USC  1857c-6), as amended in 1970.   Section  111  requires
  	T7~SometTnies referred to as "new source performance
  standards" (NSPS).
                                iii

-------
the establishment of standards of performance for new stationary
sources of air pollution which "... may contribute significantly
to air pollution which causes or contributes to the endangerment
of public health or welfare."  The Act requires that standards
of performance for such sources reflect "... the degree of
emission limitation achievable through the application of the best
system of emission reduction which (taking into account the cost
of achieving such reduction) the Administrator determines has
been adequately demonstrated."  The standards apply only to
stationary sources, the construction or modification of which
commences after regulations are proposed by publication in
the Federal Register.
     Section 111 prescribes three steps to follow in establishing
standards of performance.
     1.  The Administrator must identify those categories of
         stationary sources for which standards of performance
         will ultimately be promulgated by listing them in the
         Federal Register.
     2.  The regulations applicable to a category so listed must
         'be proposed by publication in the Federal Register within
         120 days of its listing.  This proposal provides interested
         persons an opportunity for comment.
     3.  Within 90 days after the proposal, the Administrator
         must promulgate standards with any alterations he deems
         appropriate.
                              IV

-------
     It is important to realize that standards of performance,
by themselves, do not guarantee protection of health or welfare;
that is, they are not designed to achieve any specific air
quality levels.  Rather, they are designed to reflect best
demonstrated technology (taking into account costs) for the ,
affected sources.  The overriding purpose of the collective
body of standards is to maintain existing air quality and to
prevent new pollution problems from developing.
     Previous legal challenges to standards of performance for
Portland cement plants, steam generators, and sulfuric acid
plants have resulted in several court decisions—  of importance
in developing future standards.  In those cases,, the principal
.issues were whether EPA:  (1) made reasoned decisions and
fully explained the basis of the standards, (2) made available
to interested parties the information on which the standards
were based, and  (3) adequately considered significant comments
.from interested parties.
     Among other things, the court decisions established:
(1) that preparation of environmental impact statements is not
necessary for standards developed under section 111 of the Clean
Air Act because, under that section, EPA must consider any
counter-productive environmental effects of a standard in
determining what system of control is "best;" (2) in considering
costs it is not necessary to provide a cost-benefit analysis;
     2/Portlant Cement Association v Ruckelshaus, 486. F. 2nd
375  (D.C. Cir. 1973); Essex Chemical Corp. v Ruckelshaus, 486
F. 2nd 427  (D.C. Cir. 1973).

-------
(3)  EPA is not required to justify standards that require  different
levels of.control in different industries unless such different
standards may. be unfairly discriminatory; and (4) it is
sufficient for EPA to show that a standard can be achieved
rather than that it has been achieved by existing sources.
     Promulgation of standards of performance does not prevent
State or local agencies from adopting more stringent emission
limitations for the same sources.  On the contrary section  116
of the Act (42 USC 1857-D-l) makes clear that States and other
political subdivisions may enact more restrictive standards.
Furthermore, for heavily polluted areas, more stringent standards
may be required under section 110 of the Act (42 USC 1857c-5) in
order to attain or maintain national ambient air quality standards
prescribed under section 109 (42 USC 1857c-4).  Finally, section 116
makes clear that a State may not adopt or enforce less stringent
standards than those adopted by EPA under section 111.
     Although it is clear that standards of performance should be
                                               3/
in terms of limits on emissions where feasible,—  an alternative
method of requiring control of air pollution is sometimes
necessary.  In some cases physical measurement "of emissions
from a new source may be impractical or exorbitantly expensive.

     37'"Standards of performance,1 ... refers to the degree of
emission control which can be achieved through process changes,
operation changes, direct emission control, or other methods.  The
Secretary [Administrator] should not make a technical judgment
as to how the standard should be implemented.  He should determine
the achievable limits and let the owner or operator determine the
most economical technique to apply."  Senate Report 91-1196.
                              vi

-------
  For  example, emissions of hydrocarbons from storage vessels for
 petroleum liquids  are  greatest  during storage and tank filling.
 The nature of the  emissions  (high concentrations for short
vperiods  during  filling and low  concentrations for longer
 periods  during  storage) and  the configuration of storage tanks
 make  Direct emission measurement highly ..impractical.  Therefore,
 a more practical  approach to standards of performance for
 storage  vessels has been equipment  specification.
 C.  Selection of Categories  of  Stationary Sources
   ,   Section 111  directs the Administrator to publish and  from
 time  to time revise a  list  of categories  of sources  for which
 standards of performance are to be  proposed.  A category is  to
 be selected "...  if [the Administrator]  determines  it may  contribute
 significantly to air pollution  which causes or  contributes to  the
 endangerment of public health or welfare."-  ?  ,
      Since passage of the  Clean Air Amendments  of 1970,  considerable
 attention has been given  to the development of  a system for
 assigning priorities to various source categories.   In  brief,
 the approach that has evolved is as follows.
      First, we assess any areas of emphasis by considering the
 broad EPA strategy for implementing the Clean Air Act.   Often,
 these "areas"  are  actually pollutants which are primarily emitted
 by stationary  sources.  Source  categories which emit these,
 pollutants are then evaluated  and ranked by a process involving

-------
such factors as (1) the level of emission control  (if any)
already required by State regulations;' (2) estimated levels
of control that might result from standards of performance  for the
source category; (3) projections of growth and replacement
of existing facilities for the source category; and (4) the
estimated incremental amount of air pollution that could be
prevented, in a preselected future year, by standards of
performance for the source category.      ,
     After the relative ranking is complete, an estimate  ..  .
must be made of a schedule-of activities required to develop  ,,,
a standard.  In some cases, it may not be feasible to immediately^
develop a standard for a source category with a very high
priority.  This might occur because a program of research
and development is needed or because techniques for sampling
and measuring emissions may require refinement before study
of the industry can be initiated.  The schedule of activities
must also consider differences in the time required to complete
the necessary investigation for different source categores.
Substantially more time may be necessary, for example, if a
number of pollutants must be investigated in a single source
category.  Even late in the development process the
schedule for completion of a standard may change.  For
example, inability to obtain emission data from

                           viii

-------
well-controlled sources in time to pursue the development
process in a systematic fashion may. force,a change in     .-, -     .
scheduling.
     Selection of the source-category leads to another major
decision:  determination of  the types of  sources or facilities ,
to which the standard will apply.  A source category often
has  several facilities  that  cause  air pollution.   Emissions
from some  of these  facilities may  be insignificant,and,  at  the
same time, very  expensive  to control.   An investigation  of
economics  may  show that, within ,the  costs that an  owner  could  .
 reasonably afford,  air pollution control  is  better served by
 applying standards to the more severe  pollution problems.  For
 this reason (or perhaps because there  may be no adequately
 demonstrated system for controlling emissions from certain
 facilities), standards often do not apply to all .sources within
 a category.  For similar reasons, the standards may not apply '  -
 to  all air pollutants  emitted by  such sources.  Consequently,
 although  a source  category  may be selected to be  covered by a
 standard  of performance, treatment of  some of the pollutants or
 facilities within  that source  category may be deferred.
 D.  Procedure for  Development  of  Standards of Performance
       Congress mandated that sources regulated under  section 111
  of the Clean  Air Act be  required to utilize  the best practicable
  air pollution control technology that  has been adequately

-------
 demonstrated at the time of'their design and construction.   In so
 doing, Congress sought to:
      1.  maintain existing high-quality air,
      2.  prevent new air pollution problems, and
      3.  ensure uniform national  standards  for new facilities.
      The selection of standards "of performance to achieve the
 intent of Congress has been surprisingly difficult.   In  general,
 the standards  must (1) realistically reflect best demonstrated
 control practice;  (2)  adequately  consider the cost of such control;
 (3) be applicable  to existing  sources that  are modified  as well
 as  new installations;  and  (4)  meet these conditions for  all
 variations of  operating  conditions being considered anywhere in
 the country.
     A major portion of  the  program for  development of standards
 is  spent  identifying the best  system of  emission.reduction which
 "has been adequately demonstrated"  and quantifying the emission
 rates  achievable with  the system.   The legislative history of
 section 111 and the court decisions  referred to above make clear
 that the Administrator's judgment of what is adequately demonstrated
 is not  limited to systems that are  in actual rputine use.
 Consequently, the search may include a technical assessment
 of control systems which have been adequately demonstrated but
 for which there is limited operational experience.  To date,
determination of the "degree of emission limitation achievable"
                              x

-------
has been commonly based on ^t>ut not restricted to) results
of tests of emissions from existing.sources.  This has
required worldwide investigation and measurement of emissions
from control systems.  Other countries with heavily populated,
industrialized areas have sometimes developed more effective
systems of control than those used  in the United States.
     Because the best demonstrated  systems  of emission reduction may
not be  in widespread use, the data  base upon which the standards
are established will necessarily be somewhat limited.  Test
data on existing well-controlled sources  are an obvious starting
point  in  developing  emission  limits for new sources.  However,
since  the control  of existing sources  generally represents
retrofit  technology  or was  originally  designed to meet  an
existing  State or local regulation, new sources may  be  able
 to meet more stringent emission standards.   Accordingly,  other
 information must be considered and judgment is necessarily
 involved in setting proposed standards.
     . Since passage of the Clean Air Amendments of 1970, a
 process for the development of a standard  has evolved.  In
 general,'it follows the guidelines below.
      1.  Emissions  from existing well-controlled sources
          are  measured.
      2.  Data on  emissions from such  sources  are  assessed with
          consideration of  such factors as:  (a)  the  representativeness
                              xi

-------
     of the  source tested  (feedstock, operation, size, age,
     etc.);  (b)  the age and maintenance of the control
     equipment tested  (and possible degradation in the
     efficiency  of control of similar new equipment even
     with good maintenance procedures); (c) the design
     uncertainties for the type of control equipment being
     considered; and (d) the degree of uncertainty affecting
     the judgment that new sources will be able to achieve
     similar levels of control.
3.   During development of the standards, information from
     pilot and prototype installations, guarantees by vendors
     of control equipment, contracted (but not yet constructed)
     projects, foreign technology, and published literature
     are considered, especially for sources where "emerging"
     technology appears significant.
4.   Where possible, standards are set at a level that is
     achievable with more than one control technique or
     licensed process.
5.   Where possible, standards are set to encourage (or at least
     permit) the use of process modifications or new processes
     as a method of control rather than "add-on" systems of
     air pollution control.
6.  Where possible, standards are set to permit use of

-------
         systems  capable  of controlling  more  than  one  pollutant
         (for example,  a  scrubber can  remove  both  gaseous  and
         particulate matter emissions, whereas  an  electrostatic
         precipitator is  specific to particulate matter).
                                                            •
     7.   Where appropriate, standards  for visible  emissions  are
         established in conjunction with mass emission standards.
         In such  cases, the standards  are set in such  a way  that
         a source meeting the mass emission standard will  be able
         to meet  the visible emission  standard  without additional
         controls.  (In some cases, such as fugitive dust, there
         is no mass standard).
     Finally, when all  pertinent data  are available, judgment
is again required.  Numerical tests may  not be  transposed directly
into regulations.  The design and operating conditions of those
sources from which emissions were actually measured cannot be
reproduced exactly by each new source to which  the standard of
performance will  apply.
E.  How Costs are Considered
     Section 111  of the Clean Air Act requires  that cost be
considered in setting standards of performance*  To do this requires
an assessment of the possible economic effects  of implementing
various levels of control technology in new plants within a
given industry.  The first step in this analysis requires the
generation of estimates of installed capital costs and annual
                           xiii

-------
 operating  costs  for  various demonstrated control systems,
 each  control  system  alternative  having a different overall
 control  capability.  The  final step  in the analysis is to
 determine  the economic  impact of the various control alternatives
 upon  a new plant in  the industry.  The fundamental question to
 be  addressed  in  this step is whether or not a new plant would
 be  constructed given that a certain  level of control costs would
 be  Incurred.   Other  issues that  would be analyzed in this step
 would be theveffects of control  costs upon product prices and the
 effects  on product and  raw material  supplies and producer
 profitability.
      The economic impact  upon an Industry of a proposed standard
 1s  usually addressed both in absolute terms and by comparison
 with  the coritroi  costs  that would"te incurred as a.result
 of  compliance with typical existing  State control regulations.
 This  incremental  approach is taken since a new plant would
"be  required to comply with State regulations in the absence
 of  a  Federal  standard of  performance.  This approach requires
 a detailed analysis  of  the impact upon the industry resulting
 from  the cost differential that  usually exists between the
 standard of performance and the  typical State standard.
      It  should be noted that the costs for control of air
 pollutants are not the  only control  costs considered.  Total
 environmental costs  for control  of water pollutants as wel1

                             x1v

-------
as air pollutants are analyzed wherever possible.
     A thorough study of the profitability and price-setting
mechanisms of the industry is essential to the analysis so
that an accurate estimate of potential adverse economic impacts
can be made.  It is also essential to know the capital requirements
placed on plants in the absence of Federal standards of performance
so that the additional capital requirements necessitated by these
standards can be placed in the proper perspective.  Finally, it
is necessary to recognize any constraints on capital availability
within an industry as this factor also influences the ability
of new plants to generate the capital required for installation
of the additional control equipment needed to meet the standards
of performance.
     The end result of the analysis is a presentation of costs
and potential economic impacts for a series of control
alternatives.  This information is then a major factor which
the Administrator considers in selecting a standard.
F.  Impact on Existing Sources
     Proposal of standards of performance may affect an existing
source in either of two ways.  First, if modified after
proposal of the standards, with a subsequent increase in
air pollution, it is subject to standards of performance as
if it were a new source.  (Section 111 of the Act 'defines a
new source as "any stationary source, the construction
                           xv

-------
modiflcation of which is commenced after the regulations are
proposed.")-^
     Second, promulgation of a standard of performance requires
States to establish standards of performance for the same pollutant
for existing sources in the same industry under section lll(d) of
the Act; unless the pollutant limited by the standard for new
sources is one listed under section 108 (requiring promulgation of
national ambient air quality standards) or one listed as a
hazardous pollutant under section 112.  If-a State does not act,
EPA must establish such standards.  Regulations prescribing
procedures for control of existing sources under section lll(d)
will be proposed as Subpart B of 40 CFR Part 60.
G.  Revision of Standards of Performance
     Congress was aware that the level of air pollution control
achievable by any industry may improve with technological
advances.  Accordingly, section 111 of the Act provides that
the Administrator may revise such standards from time to time.
Although standards proposed and promulgated by EPA under section 111
are designed to require installation of the "... best system of
emission 'reduction ... (taking into account the, cost)..."
the standards will be reviewed periodically.  Revisions will be
proposed and promulgated as necessary to assure that the standards
     
-------
continue to reflect the best systems that become available
in the future.  Such revisions will not be retroactive but
will apply to stationary sources constructed or modified after
proposal of the revised standards.
H.  Why Standards of Performance for Fluorides?
     Two questions are basic to the control of fluorides:  why
control them and why do so with section 111?
     The deleterious effects of fluoride on both animals and
                                            5/
vegetation have been extensively documented.—'  The effect on
animals is through the digestive tract when relatively large
quantities of contaminated vegetation are ingested.  Citizens,
both privately and in groups, have sought relief from fluoride
damage through suits against the alleged industrial sources.
In one case, a citizens' group sent to EPA data which support
the need for Federal regulation of fluorides.  State agencies
have recorded and acted on numerous public complaints on the
adverse effects of fluorides on the growth, yield, quality, and
•appearance of marketable goods such as fruit, grains, leafy
vegetables, pine trees, ornamental plants, and dairy cattle.
                         
-------
the National Academy of Sciences in 1971.  In preparing this
report, the Academy made a concerted effort to evaluate the
world literature on the subject and distill the best scientific
knowledge available on the biological effects, of fluorides.
This report concludes:  "Current knowledge indicates that air-
borne fluoride presents no direct hazard to man, except in
industrial exposure.  However, through the commercial, aesthetic,
and ecologic functions=of plants, fluoride in the environment
may indirectly influence man's health and well being."  After
considering the available information on fluorides, the Administrator
has concluded that, even though present evidence indicates that
fluorides in the range of ambient concentrations encountered under
worst conditions do not damage human health through inhalation,
they do present a serious risk to public welfare-  and warrant
control.  Fluoride emissions affect public welfare not only through
their effects on aesthetic values, but also through a decrease in
the economic value of crops which are damaged by exposure to
fluorides and through adverse effects on the health of animals
ingesting vegetation which has accumulated excessive amounts of
fluorides.
     Ij]As used in the Clean Air Act, the term "effects on welfare"
induces, but is not limited to, ". . .  effects on soils, water,
crops, vegetation, man-made materials, animals, wildlife, weather,
visibility, and climate, damage to and deterioration of property,
and hazards to transportation, as well as effects on economic values
and on personal comfort and well being."  [See section 302(h)
42 U.S.C. 1857h(h) as amended.]
                             xviii

-------
     Private citizens and citizens' groups have actively sought
means to alleviate fluoride damage.  One citizens' group, Center
for Science in the Public Interest, has written the Agency
describing at great length the need for fluoride regulations.
A number of lawsuits have been initiated which are concerned with
fluoride effects on agricultural products, and at least 20
citizens' suits have been filed against aluminum plants that emit
fluorides.
     The Administrator's decision to control fluoride emissions at
the national level was based on the following:
     1;  'The present national ambient air quality standards for
     •    particulate matter, standing alone, would not provide
         adequate welfare protection against the effects of
         fluoride for two reasons:  (a)  fluorides are emitted
         as both particulate matter and gases, and (b)  since
         the ambient standard is for "non-specific" particulate
         matter, compliance with that standard would not ensure
         fluoride concentrations sufficiently low to prevent
         damage.
     2.  Although many states have adopted fluoride control
         regulations, major sources of fluoride emissions exist
       •  in several states with no fluoride regulations.
     3.  A uniform national standard of performance for new
         sources would discourage movement of major fluoride
         emitters to states with no fluoride regulations.
                             xix

-------
     4.  Primary aluminum reduction plants, one of the major
         sources of fluoride emissions, are commonly located
         near major waterways that comprise borders between
         states.  The potential  for interstate conflict concerning
        'control of emissions from such plants has prompted
         Federal investigations  in the past, and in at least one
         case a state has requested initiation of abatement
         conference proceedings  under section 115 of the Act
         [42 U.S.C. 1857d].
     An EPA report entitled "Preferred Standards Path Report for
Fluorides" (November 1972) contains a detailed discussion of the
advantages and disadvantages of each regulatory option provided
to the Administrator under the Act to control fluoride emissions
on a national level.-   In general, the Administrator concluded
that fluorides should be regulated under section 111 of the  Act
for the following reasons:
     1.  In contrast with the problems presented by the six
         pollutants for which national ambient air quality
         standards have been promulgated, the fluoride problem
         is highly localized in the vicinity of major point
         sources in agricultural areas and is not complicated
         by the presence of numerous mobile sources.  Promulgating
         a national ambient air quality standard for fluorides

     77  A copy of this report is. available for inspection during
normaT business hours at the Freedom of Information Center,
Environmental Protection Agency, 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, D. C.
                             xx

-------
under section 109 would require states to submit
implementation plans to.attain a'nd maintain such
standards.  Because of the complex problems involved
in relating emissions to ambient levels, most plans
would include regulations based on best demonstrated
control technology.  The same result can be accom-
plished more directly and efficiently through the
promulgation of standards of performance.
Adopting national standards of performance would be
more compatible with existing state regulations than
adopting ambient air quality standards.
Since accumulation of fluorides during chronic exposure
to low-level ambient concentrations may result in
fluoride levels detrimental to either vegetation or to
the health of animals consuming the vegetation, an
ambient standard for fluorides may not in fact ensure
prevention of adverse welfare effects.
An ambient fluoride standard stringent enough to ensure
complete protection against any welfare effects might
require closure of major sources of fluoride emissions.
A more practical, and feasible approach is to minimize
fluoride damage through best demonstrated control
technology; i.e., by regulating fluoride emissions
under section 111.
                     xxi

-------
     5.  The National Academy of Sciences report indicates that
         because fluorides present no direct hazard to human
         health, the provisions of section 112 for controlling
         fluorides as a hazardous air pollutant could not be used.
     Promulgation of the proposed standards of performance for
fluorides will affect existing sources as explained in section F
of this preface.  Of particular note is that states will  be
required to establish standards for the control of fluorides
from existing sources under section m(d) of the Act.  The
resulting control may not be as stringent as that required by
the standards of performance for new sources.  As indicated
previously, regulations prescribing procedures for control of
existing sources under section lll(d) will be proposed as Subpart
B of 40 CFR Part 60.
                               xxii

-------
                           TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section                                                          Page
Summary of Proposed Standards 	 1

Description of Process	 2

Emissions and Methods of Control ...... —	 9

Rati onal e for Proposed Standards	 14
 '  Selection of Pollutants for Control	,14
-  •: Selection of Units for the Standard  	 15
   Selection of Samp!ing and Analytical Techniques  	 15
   Discussion  	•—	•	 20
      A.  Determination of Affected Facilities	 20
      B.  Determination of Best Control Techniques  for
           Alumi num Producti on  	 21
      C.  Data Base - Primary Emissions 	 28
      D.  Data Base - Secondary Emissions	 33
      E.  Data Base - Carbon Anode Bake Plant Emissions  	 37
      F.  Cost Analysis of Alternative  Fluoride Control  Systems  .. 41
      6.  Economic Analysis  of  Proposed Standards	 64
      H.  Summary	 94

 References  	 y/
 Technical  Report  Data Sheet	,		.  99
                                     XXIII

-------

-------
                     PRIMARY ALUMINUM REDUCTION PLANTS

SUMMARY OF PROPOSED STANDARDS

Standards of performance are being proposed for new primary aluminum reduction
plants.  The proposed standards would limit emissions of total fluorides and
visible emissions from potroom(s) which house primary aluminum reduction cells
and from anode bake plants.  The entire plant is the affected facility.

The standards" apply at the point(s) where emissions are discharged, from the
air pollution control system or from the affected facility if
untreated by an air pollution control system.

The proposed standards would limit emissions to the atmosphere as  follows:  <

Total  Fluorides
No more than 1 kg of total fluorides per metric  ton  of  aluminum.-(or-
al uminum equivalent) produced  (2.00 Ibs/ton)  from  the primary  aluminum
reduction plant, including the  carbon  anode bake plant.

Visible Emissions
1.   Less than  10 percent  opacity from  the  potroom.
2.   Less than  20 percent  opacity from  the  anode  bake plant

-------
DESCRIPTION OF PROCESS

All  aluminum  production  in the United States' is by electrolytic reduction
of alumina  (AlgCL).  Alumina, itself an intermediate product, is produced
from bauxite, a naturally occurring ore of hydrated oxides of aluminum.
Major world sources of bauxite are South America and Australia.

Figure 1 presents a schematic flow sheet of the aluminum reduction process.
Alumina is shipped to the primary reduction plant where it is electrically
reduced to aluminum and  oxygen.  This reduction process is carried out in
shallow rectangular cells (pots) made of carbon-lined steel with consumable
carbon blocks which,are suspended above and extend down into the pot
(Figure 2).  The pots and carbon blocks are connected electrically to serve
as cathodes and anodes,  respectively, for the electrolytical process.
Cryolite, a double fluoride salt of sodium and aluminum (NaJVIFg), serves as
both an electrolyte and  a solvent for alumina.  Alumina is added to and
dissolves in the molten  cryolite.  The cells are heated and operated
between 950° and 1,000°C with heat generated by the electrical  resistance
between the electrodes.  During the reduction process, aluminum ions
migrate to the cathode where they are reduced to aluminum.  Because of its
heavier weight, the aluminum remains as a molten metal layer underneath
the  cryolite.  Oxygen ions migrate to and react with carbon in  the anode
to form carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide which continually evolve from
the cell.
Alumina and cryolite are periodically added to the pot to replenish
material which is removed or consumed during normal operation.   Periodically,
the molten aluminum is siphoned or "tapped" from beneath the cryolite bath

-------
 CO
 CO
 CD
 O
 o
 o
-4-»
 o
T3
 £
_^

<
uu

-------
UJ
Q£
CC
=D
O

f-
O
LLJ

S=
Q
                                                                                              0)
                                                                                              o
                                                                                              CM

                                                                                              0)

                                                                                              13
                                                                                              O)

                                                                                              L
                                          4

-------
and moved to holding furnaces in the casting area.   The product aluminum is
held in the molten state until  it is cast into billets to await further
processing.

Three different types of cells are used for the production of aluminum:  the
vertical stud Soderberg (VSS), the horizontal stud Soderberg (HSS), and the
prebake (PB).  Schematic diagrams of these cells are shown in Figures 3, 4,
and 5.  These cells differ primarily in their physical configuration, to wit,
the provisions for introducing the electrical current across the cryolite
bath.  Although they require more power, the Soderberg systems were acclaimed
initially because they obviated the need for a separate facility to
manufacture anodes.  Soderberg cells permit the consumable anode to be baked
in  situ.  A mixture of ground coke and coal tar pitch is periodically added
to  the top of the electrode.  Heat from the process drives off the lower
boiling organics and fuses  the new material to the old electrode.  Partially
because of the problems with the volatile pitch which condenses in the duct-
work and the control device, and partially because of the problems inherent
in  simultaneously controlling fluorides and organic emissions, any previous
economic advantage of the Soderberg systems is diminishing and the trend
appears to be toward the PB  cell.  As can be seen from Figures 3 and 4, the
major difference between the two types of Soderberg cells insofar as the
process is concerned is the manner  in which the pins which carry the current
are  inserted into the anode.
The PB cell  uses an anode that is precast.  Since the anode  is consumed
during normal operation, old anode  remnants or "butts" are replaced
periodically with new anodes.  The  old remnants are removed  from the cell,

-------
I-CD
                                                          O

-------
•o
 o
 o
 CD

 O


 D)
 L_

 CD
 O
03
 a
 O
"to
 o
'o.
 D)

ii.

-------
ffi

-------
cleaned, ground, mixed with new coke, and blended together with coal tar
pitch in an anode prebake plant.  The mixture is weighed, then solidified by
slowly baking in a furnace for about 30 days.
Although somewhat academic from the process aspect, the type of stud used has
a major effect on fugitive emissions that escape the cell as we shall see
later.  This is partially because air volume through the hooding system varies
between cell -types, from 4,000 to 8,000 scfm on HSS and PB and from 400 to 600
on VSS.
EMISSIONS AND METHODS OF CONTROL
Several types of  pollutants are emitted during the production of primary
aluminum.   The  major  emission source  is the  reduction cell.  Another source
is the  anode baking facility.
An uncontrolled primary aluminum  plant can emit  40 to 60 pounds of  fluoride
 (F~)  per  ton of aluminum produced.1   A poorly  controlled primary aluminum
 plant can release 15  pounds of  F~ per ton of aluminum.    Such  installations
 are  likely to  be equipped with  inefficient capture systems (hoods)  on  the
 reduction cells and inefficient water scrubbers.  A 600-ton-per day (TPD)
 plant so  equipped would emit  9*000 pounds of F~  each  day.   Plant  capacities
 in the United  States  range from 100 to  750 tons  of aluminum per  day.    In
 most primary aluminum plants, those emissions  that escape the hoods (thereby
 escaping the primary control  system) exit directly through the roof of the
 building to the atmosphere (Figure 6).   Such "uncontrolled" secondary
 emissions can be several times as large as those which pass through the
 primary control system.  An overall control  efficiency of 95 to 97 percent

                                          9.

-------
                                                      LL
10

-------
of the fluorides generated in the potroom will  be required to meet the proposed
performance standard.  The proposed standard for fluorides will  also result in
efficient control of both particulates and organics.
An uncontrolled plant can be a significant'source of particulates by emitting
112 pounds of particulates per ton of aluminum produced or over 33 tons each
day.1  A poorly controlled plant may release as much as 40 pounds of  particulates
per  ton  of  aluminum produced/   Such  installations frequently attempt
to control emissions with relatively inefficient water scrubbers.  A  600-TPD
plant so equipped would emit 12  tons of particulates each day.  Particulates
possibly originate  in two ways:  simple entrapment in the vent system during
periodic additions  of alumina and  cryolite, and condensation of material
vaporized from  the  molten bath and carbon  anodes.  It  is  estimated  that 25
percent  of  the  weight of  particulates can  be complex fluoride compounds such
as cryolite  (Na3A!F6), aluminum  fluoride  (A1F3)5  calcium  fluoride (CaF2),  and
chio'lite (Na5Al3F4).1  These can be divided into  two categories:  water
soluble  and water  insoluble.   (CaF2 is  the primary water-insoluble  fluoride.)
Measurements of particulate emissions and  over 40 hours of visible  emission
 readings .recorded  by EPA indicated that dry control  systems  or  wet  scrubbers
 in  series  with  wet electrostatic precipitators provide the best control for
 particulates.  These systems had opacity readings of 10 percent or  less at
 all  times.
 The high temperature of the cell causes emissions of organics (tar-fog) from
 the anodes at the cells.  This fume is  not effectively controlled by water
 scrubbers and forms the bluish haze characteristic  of aluminum plants.  This
 haze is quite visible from HSS and VSS cells.   (Although  most of these fumes

-------
 are  sometimes  burned  at VSS  cells,  the  burners are not always maintained in
 proper  operating  condition.)  The PB  has the least visible organic fume
 because the  low-boiling organics have already been driven off during the
 baking  process at the anode  bake plant.  Both dry control systems and wet
 electrostatic precipitators appear  to provide good control of organic fumes.
 It has  been  reported that large amounts of carbon monoxide (CO) are generated
 at the  reduction  cell.   Measurements by EPA show roughly less than 1 percent
 by volume in the  exit gas streams.  Some <
 occurs  when  the hot CO gases contact air.
by volume in the exit gas streams.   Some combustion to carbon dioxide (C02)
S02 emissions are the product of sulfur contamination in the organics from
which the anodes are formed.  Anode bake plants emitted from 5 to 47 parts
per million  (ppm) and VSS and HSS plants, up to 80 ppm based on limited EPA
tests.   (One source reports up to 200 ppm S02 can be emitted.3)  The sulfur
content of the coke now ranges from 2.5 to 5.0 percent,  equivalent to S0?
emissions of 7 to 14 tons each day from a 600-TPD plant.

Results of a limited number of samples indicate NO  emissions from primary
                                                  X
aluminum plants are very low, about 5 ppm.

Fugitive dust and visible emissions from ancillary operations such as
production of anodes and handling of raw materials can be controlled by
installation of suitable control  devices.   Historically, cyclones, baghouses,
and pneumatic handling systems have been justified based on the value of
recovered materials.
                                    12

-------
Several  State and local  regulations limit fluoride emissions from primary
aluminum plants.  Some base the restrictions on production rate,  others on
the ambient air concentration of fluoride or its concentration in surrounding
vegetation.  The most stringent State regulation has dual  limits  of an annual
average of 1.00 pound of total fluoride per ton of aluminum produced and a
monthly average of 1.3 pounds (the monthly average is based on the average
of three emission measurements which are required per month).  This regulation
was developed from emission data collected in early 1973 at one prebake plant
that combined a new dry primary control system with an existing wet secondary
control system.  Although the sampling and analytical techniques used are not
known, EPA's Method 13 was not used, so results and standards are not
directly comparable.  Also it should be recognized that a  standard based
upon averaging  over relatively long periods is less stringent than a
numerically equivalent standard established as a nonexceedable limit.
     Unquestionably, emissions as  low as required by this  State standard
may be achievable.  An examination of the available fluoride emissions from
primary aluminum pi ants.show that about 75 percent of the  allowable emissions
will exit  from  the roof without being exposed  to  any control device.
Certainly  the  installation of even a poor secondary control  device  could
reduce  the total emissions.   However,  it is  the Administrator's  judgment
that  the  overall  Federal  standard  of 2.0 pounds for  the potroom  will  indeed
require the best demonstrated technology, considering  cost, within  the
 intent of the Clean Air Act.
                                        13

-------
RATIONALE FOR PROPOSED STANDARDS
Sel ectiotyof Poljutants for Control

Information gained from the study by EPA titled, "Air Pollution Control in the
Primary Aluminum Industry," (EPA No. 450/3-73-004 A&B and PB-224-282/AS)
indicated that fluorides and particulates are the principal pollutants from
primary aluminum plants.  During this investigation, some information was also
collected on emissions of sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and carbon monoxide. •
A standard for control of sulfur oxides is not now being considered because
control technology has not been demonstrated in this industry.  Primary aluminum
reduction plants could become a significant source of SOg emissions partially
because of a trend toward the use of higher sulfur raw materials for the
manufacture of anodes.  Nitrogen oxide emissions were found to be insignificant.
The available data on carbon monoxide emissions indicated that these emissions
were also insignificant.

Documented evidence has shown that fluorides emitted by industrial plants are
responsible for damage to commercially grown flowers, fruits, and vegetables.
Fluorides in low concentrations can also be absorbed by grasses and plants.
They can then cause fluorosis in animals that feed upon such forage.  This
disease distorts bone development, retards growth, mottles teeth and adversely
affects general health. '       For these reasonSj fluor1des were selected for
control.  Subsequent source tests have shown that if fluorides are well-
controlled, the resulting control of particulates and organics will also be
good.
                                       14

-------
  Selection of Units  for the Standard
  Although both concentration and mass units were considered for the standard,
  mass units of pounds of total  fluorides (versus water-soluble or gaseous
  fluorides) per ton  of aluminum produced are recommended for the following
 *•• reasons:                                 '•'•
      ' 1.  Sampling techniques which permit segregation of particulate and
           gaseous fluorides have not been standardized and are not widely
           accepted.
       2.^  Sampling techniques for water-soluble fluorides have also been
           suspect on occasion.  Some accepted insoluble fluoride compounds
•   -.       may convert  to a  soluble  form in the  sampling train  if the
           samples are  held  too  long before analysis.
       3.  To control the emission of total fluorides, the  source must control
            both  particulate  and  gaseous  fluorides.  The  standard  thus indirectly
            controls  particulate  emissions.
       4.   A standard based on concentration  units would be inconsistent
            because of variations in  the  volume of ventilation  air used by
            various plants and the large  fluctuations  within a  single plant.

        5.   Aluminum  production  rates are relatively  steady.

        6.   Product aluminum is  weighed as it is  removed  from the potline';
            therefore, accurate production rates  are  available.

   Selection of Sampling and Analytical  Techniques
   Where possible, sampling  and analytical procedures were used which conformed
   to Methods 5, 6, and 7, determination of particulate,  sulfur dioxide,  and
                                        15

-------
nitrogen dioxide emissions from stationary sources,  respectively  (described in
the Appendix to the December 23, 1971, Federal  Register,  Volume 36, Number 247).
Measurements of oxygen (02), carbon dioxide (CCL), and carbon monoxide  (CO) were
conducted with an Orsat analyzer.

Samples of emissions from primary control  systems  for fluoride analysis were
collected isokinetically with the sampling train described  in Method 5 and
traversed in accordance with Method 1, "Sample  and Velocity Traverses for
Stationary Sources."
Standard methods for measurement of fluoride emissions were not available in
the aluminum industry when EPA began its emission  test program.   EPA determined
that the basic sampling train used with EPA Method 5 could  be used to collect
samples of fluoride emissions.  Several minor modifications of the train were
tried during the initial tests.  At the same time, a similar program of fluoride
measurement was being conducted by EPA in the fertilizer  industry.  EPA's
Method 13 was developed from the experience gained in these measurement programs.
Although basically the same as Method 5, Method 13 incorporates some options or
variations to improve sampling for fluorides, whereas Method 5 is designed for
particulate sampling.  Results of the earlier tests, although not sampled in
strict accordance with Method 13 as 1t finally  developed, are comparable.
The analytical method recommended for analysis  of  samples for fluoride is the  „
SPADNS Zirconium Lake Method.  It was chosen after several  analytical methods
were studied by EPA.  It has proven accurate and reliable for years by
governmental and industry sources.  Samples from EPA's emission test program
were analyzed by this or comparable methods.
                                     16

-------
When emission samples upstream and downstream of a control device could not be
taken simultaneously, sequential sampling was accomplished as quickly as
possible.  Length of sampling times varied from 2 to 24 hours.

Special sampling techniques were required to measure emissions of exit gases
where we could neither traverse nor sample isokinetically.  These special
sampling techniques were used to sample secondary emissions from roofs or
monitors.  Some plants utilized a control system to reduce these emissions,
others did not.  Traverse sampling was not practical because  of the unusual
configuration of the area to be covered.  Also, isokinetic sampling was
compromised  to maximize the collection efficiency of the  pollutant  (fluoride)
in  the impinger section of the  EPA train.  Isokinetic sampling would sub-
stantially reduce  the  impinger  collection efficiency because  of low gas
velocities at the  sampling location.
Before selecting a method, the  Agency held discussions with each company on  its
sampling  techniques for secondary  emissions.   As  a .result, sampling at  a
constant  rate was  selected.   In addition, since the gas  velocity was low and
reasonably constant, a single  point  in  the gas stream was sampled.  This
single-point method is not unreasonable  since  about  70 percent of  the .partic-
ulates are below 5 microns in  diameter  and behave almost like a  gas.    (Some  .
data indicate that up  to  60  percent  of  particulates  released  at  the cell could
be less  than 3  microns in size.)1   A very important  criterion'was  to ensure
the sample  rate permitted maximum efficiency of the  impinger section of the
 sampling train.  The samples  were -collected  at a  rate  of 1  cubic foot  per
 minute (ft3/min)  close to the center of the  discharge  of the gas stream to
 minimize ductwork  or other interferences.  The sampling  points  for secondary
                                        17

-------
  systems were  usually  above  the  cells controlled  by the primary control system.
  When  possible,  the  primary  and  secondary systems were sampled simultaneously.
  Gas flows from  the  building were either measured by the company with EPA
  observing or  the average gas flows provided by the company were used.
  A second and more elaborate method of sampling emissions from the monitor was
  provided by one company who uses this system at several of their plants.
  Continuous samples from a multipoint sampling system in the roof monitor
  (Figure 7) were drawn through intake nozzles to a common manifold and
  discharged through a stack.   Velocity into the nozzles corresponded to the
:-24-hour average velocity through the monitor.   Isokinetic sampling was then
 performed at the stack to determine the concentration of total  fluorides.   Gas
 flow through the roof monitor was simultaneously measured at many points  with
 anemometers.   These anemometers, spaced in the monitor area, were connected
 to a computer which provided a gas  velocity reading  every few minutes.  This
 reading permitted a gross measurement of gas flow during  the sampling period.
 The company has  provided data  which indicate excellent correlation  between
 this sampling  method and elaborate  manual  techniques  required for sampling
 the monitors.  Certainly,  results of  this  type of test on  a  secondary system
 should be more representative  than  those from  the single  point sample.

 Samples were analyzed  for  both water-soluble and  water-insoluble  fluorides.
 The  water-soluble fluorides  were determined  by the SPADNS  Zirconium  Lake
 Method 12, after the sample  was  first distilled with sulfuric acid.   Water
 insoluble fluorides  were determined by the SPADNS method after the sample
 had  been fused with  NaOH.  These are both standard fluoride analytical
 techniques used  for  many years by industrial and governmental laboratories.
                                       18

-------
                                               e
                                               03
                                               
-------
                                       1
 Discussion
 A.   Determination of Affected Facilities

 Information initially available for use in the development of standards  of
 performance for the primary aluminum industry resulted from a study by EPA.
 The study had been in process for over a year prior to initiation  of the
 program to develop standards of performance and was primarily concerned  with
 emissions and control  techniques of the United States  primary aluminum
 industry.   It utilized a  survey of the industry by  questionnaire,  a literature
 search,  and measurements  of emissions  from select primary  aluminum plants.  The
 study  provided information  concerning  the history,  trends,  industrial  statis-
 tics,  processes,  emissions,  economics,  and emission control  technology and
 procedures  of the primary aluminum industry.

 After  reviewing this work,  EPA  consulted  representatives of  several  State
 agencies  and  manufacturers  of control  equipment.  Assimilation of  all
 information confirmed  that  the  reduction  cell  and anode prebake furnace  are
 the major sources  of pollution  at  primary aluminum  plants, and that  the  primary
 pollutants are fluorides  and  particulates.

 Efficient removal  of fluoride from a gas  stream is  relatively easy.  Unfortu-
 nately, a significant  portion of the gaseous emissions from a cell  can escape
 capture by the hoods.  These  fluoride-bearing gases then bypass the primary
 collection system.  To properly determine  the total  emissions from a primary
aluminum plant, emissions must be measured as they exit both the building (or
 potroom) and the control device.  Consequently, it was not possible to use the
cell as an affected facility, and the entire building had to be so  designated.
20

-------
All emissions from the anode bake plant exit through the control device so the
entire plant was selected as a second affected facility.  Figure 8 presents a
schematic of the two affected facilities.

B.  Determination of Best Control Techniques for Aluminum Production

A discussion of best control for potrooms of primary aluminum plants must
consider the two routes by which emissions exhaust to the atmosphere:  those
captured by the hood which subsequently pass through the primary control device
(which we will refer to as "primary emissions") and those which elude the hood
system and exit the building through the roof monitors  ('-'secondary" emissions).
Most plants do not utilize a control device to reduce secondary emissions.

Table 1 affirms the importance to both wet and dry types of primary collection
devices of good capture of emissions by'the primary hood collection system.
Notice the average fluoride removal efficiency of all primary control devices
was 99.5 percent.  Not unexpected is the much lower efficiency of the low-
energy spray-screen scrubbers sometimes used to control secondary emissions.
Collectively, the two averaged only 76.6 percent removal efficiency.

It is obvious that the "best demonstrated control" of fluorides is heavily,
if not totally, dependent on use of a hood which is highly efficient at
capturing fluoride emissions and directing them to the  primary control device
rather than permitting them to escape and be scrubbed by the much less
efficient secondary system.
As mentioned in "Description of the Process," the physical characteristics
of each of the three types of cells place various limitations on the design
of the hooding for the primary collection device.  At one extreme is the
                                    21

-------
                                                       D-
                                                       U_
22

-------
CO


S2



o


o
ID

LU
o:
CO

<
o *—
LU "-1-1
O <~*"
	 LU
LI-
LI-
LJ_
m 2: £-
S — S
CO "^ LJ—
3D CO 1—
_J — CQ
1 1 ^ — 1
III
1 * T

QL.
LU
— 1
ID
O

LU
	 1
"ff^ti
—
t
So
LJ_
Q.
>
1—



1 ^
• t — ^
• (_)


! Q^
i s>_
O P-
1—
— 1
Q_


r-.
Os"

i — i
CD*

CD
oo"


LU
OO
a
— .
— i
LL-

OQ
Q_





 LU
*S* ,rv
Q_
CO
CO





/^A




CD
Os

CD
CD"

R
vO
CO
c^O

=D Q!
f>X —
0 LU
CO QX
Q_
co
CO





1 1 t




Os
OO
Os
Os

CD
CD*

sO
CD
V^5
co
Q
LU
DQ
d
— 1

Ll_

CO
CO



i

LU




O^\
L^^
Os
Os
















LU
LU - .^
o o °3
^C ^
CK CQ JT"1
i i i ^ ^
^> —
<••< o"
^
s

C£
Q_

m
CO
r*^™

v^^
CD

LfN
OO
Csj

LU
LU
0
CO
^^
&L
Q_
CO
CO
CO





Q




CD
J2

S
Csj

CD
c— H
1 	 1
LU
^
1—
•\~.
^
Q_
CO
CO
CO





LU




vQ
•^J
(*^^




*












LU
CD
 C— ^

-------
VSS cell.  Since a substantial area of the surface of the molten bath is out-
side of the skirt of the hood (Figure 3), the capture efficiency of the hood
for this area is poor.  Fortunately, the molten surface is usually covered by
a crust of cryolite and regularly replenished with a layer of alumina.  The
latter will adsorb fluorides that otherwise would escape.  However, periodically
areas of the molten bath are exposed, such as immediately after the crust is
broken to permit addition of alumina.  Because these breaks are outside of the
hood, much of the subsequent emissions escape unattended to the secondary system.
Although the length of time between breaking the crust and the addition of new
alumina is largely a function of operating procedure, it can be as long as
half an hour.  This delay could be significantly reduced by training and
closer supervision.

The PB and HSS cells can be completely hooded as shown in Figures 4 and 5.
The collection efficiencies of such hoods have been estimated at 97 to 99
percent.  Still  higher capture efficiencies have been elusive because the
hoods must be opened on a scheduled basis to perform various "cell work,"
such as pin or anode changes, raw material additions, crust breaking, tapping,
and any other operation that requires access to the interior of the cell.
Some companies in the industry have recognized the advantages of containing
fluoride emissions in a primary system rather than attempting to install
or improve the collection efficiency of a 'secondary system.  They have made
changes which significantly affect total  emissions.

Historically, the doors on HSS hoods extend the full length of both
sides of the cell (15 to 36 feet).  As a result, when the operator opens
the door of the  cell, he exposes a side the complete length of the cell.
                                        24

-------
Most emission control systems are inadequate to provide sufficient draft to
capture all the emissions under these circumstances.   A PB hood can be
segmented so that the area of the cell  exposed during working can be minimized
and capture gas velocity maintained proportionately higher.   Also one company
using the prebake process has alleviated the draft problem somewhat by using
throttling valves in the ductwork of all cells so that the capture gas velocity
can be doubled before one or more of the segmented doors are opened.  These
methods of improving capture are resulting in fewer overall  emissions.  Modern
plants are assisting air pollution control by closely controlling the process
variables of temperature, chemistry, voltage, alumina and cryolite additions,
and automatic crust breaking without opening the hood.

Companies have also become more aware of the effect of poor maintenance of
cells and hoods on emissions.  As equipment ages, hoods and doors are bent,
broken, misplaced, and even partially melted.  The increase in open area
can render a marginal draft system completely ineffectual.

After the emissions are captured by the primary system, control is not
difficult.  Plants may achieve good control with either of two systems.
"Dry" systems, which sometimes incorporate cyclones upstream of the
control device, take advantage of the strong affinity of alumina for
fluoride.  Figure 9 shows two types of dry systems.  After the effluent
passes through it, the alumina is fed to the cells, thereby providing a
closed-loop recycle for fluorides.  Dry control systems have been
developed for .all three types of cell.   Well-controlled "wet" primary
systems, such as shown in Figure 10, utilize a high-efficiency wet scrubber
followed by a wet electrostatic precipitator.  These too can be used on
all three types of cell.
                                      25

-------
   FLUID-BED
  DRY SCRUBBER
                                                                          ROOF
                                                                        EMISSIONS
                FAN
                                   CELL GAS
         ALUMINA
                                                                         ROOF
                                                                        EMISSIONS
Figure 9. Fluid-bed dry scrubber (top); injected alumina dry scrubber (bottorr^,
                                   26

-------
                                                       CO

                                                       o

                                                       to
                                                       >*
                                                       to
                                                        o
                                                        o
                                                        to
                                                        to



                                                        CD

                                                        >,
                                                        i_
                                                        co
                                                        o
                                                        o
                                                        CD
                                                        to

                                                        T3

                                                        Ctf
                                                        CO
                                                        _E


                                                        O-

                                                        o
                                                        JD


                                                        U-
                                                        o



                                                        §
                                                        O)
27

-------
Those emissions that elude the primary collector are much more likely to
escape to the atmosphere.  Potrooms, which house the cells, are designed to
encourage convection currents of ventilation air to sweep the building.
This is accomplished by constructing openings in the floor or by providing
louvers along the lower walls of the potroom or both.  As a result, secondary
emissions are diluted by the 30,000 to 60,000 cubic feet of ventilation air
per cell which passes through the roof monitor each minute.  Strong cross-
winds can even carry emissions through the floor or wall openings, causing
them to bypass the secondary control system.  One operator of a new VSS cell
plant has minimized this problem by closing the sides of the potroom and using
forced ventilation.  Forced ventilation will minimize the effect of outside
weather conditions, yet provide for the health, safety, and comfort of
operating personnel.

C.  Data Base - Primary Emissions
Preliminary investigations revealed the locations of several reportedly well-
controlled plants.  Eight were visited and information was obtained on the
process and control equipment.  Six plants were selected to be tested; these
included all three types of reduction cells and both wet and dry air pollution
control systems.  The other two plants had no stacks suitable for source
measurements.  Two of the six plants tested were later retested a second time
to confirm or supplement previous data.  Inspections of two primary aluminum
reduction plants in Europe, one a PB, the other a VSS, revealed their primary
control systems are comparable to those in the best-controlled plants in the
United States.  Both plants use dry control systems.  More  recently,  data were
submitted to EPA on a PB plant in the United States using a dry primary control
system and a wet secondary control system.
                                    28

-------
Figure 11 presents the results of all  measurements  of emissions  from primary
control systems.  One of the first plants sampled by EPA as  part of the
original study?was Plant A, a VSS plant.   This original  test indicated
emissions of 1.0 to 1.4 pounds of total  fluoride per ton of  aluminum produced
(Ib TF/TAP).  The company extensively modified its  control system.by adding a
wet electrostatic precipitator downstream of the "bubbler" scrubber.  Three
measurements reveal emissions averaged 0.012 Ib TF/TAP after the modification
(A,),  More recently, three measurements by EPA on  this same control system
averaged 0.016 Ib TF/TAP (A2).  One difference between the second and third
series of measurements conducted at this plant was  an increase in sampling
time from about 6 to 24 hours per measurement to confirm this factor did not
affect the data.
Data submitted by the company to a State agency on total emissions of fluoride
averaged about 0.024 Ib TF/TAP (A3).  Maximum emissions from the primary system
were 0.039  Ib TF/TAP.9  Calculations based on analysis of inlet concentrations
at Plant A  indicate the primary control system is 99.9 percent efficient and
the secondary control system  is about 73 percent.  Reduced efficiency is the
common  shortcoming of low  energy wet secondary systems on a  low concentration
gas stream.
The average of three measurements by EPA of a primary control system on an HSS
plant  reveal emissions  from a scrubber in series with a wet electrostatic
precipitator averaged 0.41 Ib TF/TAP  (B).  Information provided by the company
                                                                           2
indicates an average of 0.50  Ib TF/TAP (B.,) for the primary control system.
Results of  four measurements  by EPA of a primary control system show emissions
from  a PB plant  which uses a  fluid-bed dry scrubber averaged 0.15 Ib TF/TAP (C),
                                   29

-------
J..U
0.80
' ALUMINUM PRODUCED
p p o
Jsj !t» en
c=> o o
0
i
s 0.10
I 0.08
CO
CO
gj 0.06
LU
0
§ 0.04
u.
_l
H-
0.02
n ni
PLANT
CELL TYPE
CONTROL
EQUIPMENT
- I I I I I I I I ^ I I I -
— 	 	 , . II,
KEY R ;Ci j^j
f[l| AVERAGE o ' f ^ , i
— U ^^ ! 1 « oco —
0 v I | 1
EPA TEST 'o 1 ' °
METHOD c j j
COMPANY uLi) | |
- TEST METHOD !j ocxx. —
o
,°, o -
| [ LEGEND
~~ ,8j ST- SPRAY TOWER ~
" M BS- "BUBBLER" SCRUBBER
8 P - WET ELECTROSTATIC PRECIPITATOR
— FBDS- FLUID-BED DRY SCRUBBER, ~
c IADS - INJECTED ALUMINUM DRY SCRUBBER
/ > ' — '
t^ J 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
AI A£ AS B BI C D DI E F G H
VSS VSS VSS HSS HSS PB PB PB PB VSS PB PB
BS-P BS-P BS-P ST-P ST-P FBDS FBDS FBDS FBDS FBDS IADS IADS
Figure 11.  Primary emissions from the primary aluminum reduction industry;
                               30

-------
Results of six measurements by EPA of a primary control  system indicate
emissions from another PB plant with a fluid-bed dry scrubber averaged 0.87
Ib TF/TAP (D).  Although measurements ranged from 0.26 to 1.70 Ib TF/TAP,  two
high measurements of 1.70 Ib are suspect.   They are not representative based
on both the company's normal operating parameters and results of their own
measurements.  Furthermore, these two measurements were obtained during  two
long runs on the same day.  During the last of the two, the operator identified
and corrected a malfunction in the control device.

The other four measurements shown for Plant D represent tests before and after
the malfunction and indicate average emissions of 0.49 Ib TF/TAP.  Three additional
measurements  (D,) on another day showed average emissions of 0.44 Ib TF/TAP.
Fourteen data points provided by the company which owns Plants C and D, for a
1 year period, indicate emissions from primary fluid-bed dry scrubbers averaged
                                                           2
0.51 Ib TF/TAP.  These  are  represented by (E) in Figure 11.
This company, which also manufactures the control device, published a paper in
The Journal  of the Air  Pollution Control Association, Volume 21, No. 8, August
1971, which  shows emissions from three PB plants which use dry control systems.
These  data,  which show  total fluoride emissions, are presented here as Table 2.
Company officials indicate  that the  high  figures in Table 2  are now rare  due to
improved operating experience gained in the more than 2 years since this  data
was published.
Data presented  to a State  agency in  1973  by one  PB  plant, indicate emissions
from a primary  injected dry control  system  over  a 6-month period averaged
0.31 Ib TF/TAP  (H).9
                                     31

-------
CO
CO
LU
CO
CO
LU
      CO
cxi
CQ
                    QQ
           CO
                co
             CJ) - QQ
             UU g _J
             CO S
       a:
       a_
                CO
                                  OO
                          o_
                                         CXI
                                   if\
CD

C3
                                         ct:
                                                       CXI
                                                CXJ
                                                D_
                                                       CD
                                                       LU
                                                               LTv
                                                              CSJ
                      LT\
                      LfN
                                                              vO
                                                              CXJ
                                                                             CXI
                                                                                    CXI
                                                                                    ON
                                          32

-------
 One plant In Europe which  uses  VSS  cells reported emissions of 0.04 1b TF/TAP
 (F) from a dry primary control  system.  Another European plant which uses PB
 cells and a dry primary control  system  reports average emissions as 0.74 Ib
 TF/TAP (G).
 From the summary information presented  in  Figure 11  and Table 2, it is obvious
 that a primary control system can achieve  levels of  control of 0.5 Ib TF/TAP
 or less.  The high values  shown were resolved by one operator who added a wet
 precipitator to modify the control  system.   Another  discovered an upset in the
 control device which was immediately resolved.
 Sampling techniques used by companies furnishing other data were not known but
 it is assumed that a sampling technique relatively common  to the industry was
 used.                              ......
 D.  Data Base - Secondary Emissions
. Results of all available measurements of secondary emissions are presented in
 Figure  12.  Measurements taken from the discharge of a spray-screen  scrubbing
 device .indicate emissions averaged 1.65 Ib TF/TAP  (A), 0.80 "ib TF/TAP  (A]) and
 2.02  Ib TF/TAP  (AJ.  This is especially significant when  you  remember that
 primary emissions from the plant average only 0.02-0.03  Ib TF/TAP  after
 modifications  (A, and A2).  The operator of this  plant  has submitted informa-
 tion  to the State agency which showed secondary emissions  averaged 1.37 Ib
 TF/TAP  (A3), and to EPA which showed the average of 32  tests  over  a  longer
 period  as  1.52  Ib TF/TAP  (A4).
 Plant B presents the  results of four measurements taken by EPA at  the roof
 monitor of a  plant which  has no secondary control  device.   Emissions averaged
                                  33

-------
o n
o.u


2.8


26
*.«u
2.4

2.2
c
§ 2.0
e/»~
J?
£ 1.8
1
"J 1.6
a
cc
o
3 1.4
n
_i

-------
2.10 Ib TF/TAP (B).  The company provided data to the  State agency which
                                                                            g
revealed secondary emissions from all  the potrooms to  average  1.73 Ib  TF/TAP.

The figures for secondary emissions merit some discussion because they vary
so much.  One, if not the most significant, variable which affects the
emissions through the monitor is the capture efficiency of the hood.   The
potroom, which EPA sampled, was one of the plant's newest and  contained the
latest in hooded cells.  Secondary emissions from this building as measured
by the operator ranged from 0.91 to 1.68 Ib TF/TAP with an average of 1.15
Ib TF/TAP (B,).2  The differences between results of tests by  EPA and the operator
do not seem unreasonable.  The operator's data were obtained by simultaneous 24-hour
measurements at several points over many months.

In contrast, only one point in the monitor was measured by EPA.  Furthermore,
all measurements, except one, were conducted during the day: 12 to 13 hours
for three measurements and 8 hours for one measurement.  This  single sample
point is assumed to represent the total emissions from the 14 cells  controlled
by the  primary control system.  Realistically, however, these secondary
emissions through the monitor are also affected by the adjacent cells,
                                              t
especially the other 14 cells on the other side of the building which share
the same monitor area.  Other causes for variation result from working +ho
cells.   Hood  doors do  not  need  to be opened for long  periods for this purpose,
but other  activities may require  longer  exposure  of the  cell bed.  Records
 kept  by EPA  and  the  operator  of all activities to the 28 cells during the
 sampling periods  reveal:
      1.  The lowest emission  rate was  indicated by a  13-hour  sampling from
          Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning when the cells  are rela-
          tively unattended.
                                        35

-------
     2.  The highest emission rate was indicated by an 8-hour measurement
         from early morning to afternoon during a weekday when activities
         for all cells are at their peak.  In fact, there were pin
         changing operations directly below the sampling point which  take
         considerable time.
It seems reasonable to conclude that:
     If multipoint 24-hour sampling were performed, the extremes  obtained  during
     EPA tests should be dampened and more in line with the operator's  results.

The results of four measurements of secondary emissions from a PB plant which
has no secondary control device averaged 1.26 Ib TF/TAP (C).  The company
indicated the cell hooding in this potroom was not their best compared  to
another plant within the company.  Measurements of this secondary system were
taken only to provide companion data to the primary system.   The  operator's
best primary control device is connected to these hoods.

The result of two measurements of uncontrolled secondary emissions from another
PB plant averaged 1.20 Ib TF/TAP (D).
                o
The data for (E)  represent results of emission measurements from an  uncontrolled
secondary system and were provided by the PB plant operator.  A high  value of
4.4 Ib TF/TAP has been deleted from consideration because the primary collection
system or process was not operating properly, also, this  value is
not statistically supported by the other measurements.   The average emission
rate without the 4.4 value is 1.14 Ib TF/TAP.
One European operator reports emission rates from uncontrolled  roof monitors
as 1.18 Ib
operation.
as 1.18 Ib TF/TAP (F)   based on samples  taken during  18 months of continuous
                                      36

-------
Data presented to a State agency in 1973 by one PB plant indicate emissions
from a wet sec
Ib TF/TAP (G).
from a wet secondary control  system over a  period  of 6 months  averaged  0.66
              9
Although examination of Figure 12 would indicate measurements  of secondary
emissions ranged from 0.4 to 2.9 Ib TF/TAP, more explanation is essential to
understanding the data.  All results of measurements by EPA, with the
exception of Plants C and D, were obtained with a single-point sample under
nonisokinetic conditions.  Plants C and D utilized the elaborate multipoint
sampling and flow measurement devices shown in Figure 7.  Consequently, it
was only on the latter two plants that sampling could be accomplished in
accordance with accepted practices.  Therefore, more confidence can be placed
in those two plants which averaged less than 1.2 Ib TF/TAP.  These levels were
achieved at both plants even without a secondary control device.
From the summary of results as presented in Figure 12, it is obvious that good
hood capture efficiency can limit secondary emissions to 1.5 Ib TF/TAP or less
without a secondary control device.
It should be pointed out, howeve'r, that this degree of control  has not
been demonstrated for the VSS cell using only the primary control system.'  A
new VSS system may require a secondary control system to achieve the level  of
emissions required by the standard of performance.
E.  DateTBase - Carbon Anode Bake Plant Emissions
The source  of fluoride emissioris from  the  carbon anode bake plant is the anode
remnants or "butts" returned  from the  primary  aluminum plant.   Although typical
operating  procedures  call for removal  of  fused  cryolite from the surface of the
                                     37

-------
butts before they are ground and mixed with hot coal-tar pitch,  the absence  of
quality control or supervisory emphasis was obvious during EPA plant visits.
We speculate that the recommended level of control  may be achievable by better
cleaning of anode remnants.

Two dorrestic carbon anode bake plants were measured.   The control  equipment
on either was designed specifically for fluorides.   Each plant uses an
electrostatic precipitator (ESP) to control organic and particulate emissions.
Before entering the ESP, the gases from the anode plant are treated in  a wet
conditioner to improve the effectiveness of collection.  Although  some
incidental fluoride removal probably occurs, the wet conditioner is designed
to control gas temperature.  Results of measurements  from the first plant
reveal average emissions of 0.90 pound of total fluoride per ton of carbon
anodes produced (Ib TF/TCAP), as shown in Figure 13,  (A).  As all  the carbon:
anode production is consumed outside, the emission  levels can be converted
to their equivalent aluminum production.  This conversion indicates average
emissions of 0.45 Ib TF/TAP.  Results from the .second anode bake plant  reveal
average emissions of 1.25 Ib TF/TCAP (B).  This plant sells anodes to other
                                            »
aluminum reduction plants; therefore, no direct correlation with actual
aluminum production was possible.  However, based on  an estimate commonly
used of 1,000 pounds of anode consumed per ton of aluminum produced,  average
emissions were calculated as 0.63 Ib TF/TAP.
It appears that the best controlled carbon anode bake plant is in  Norway.
It uses an electrostatic precipitator, a venturi scrubber, and a spray  tower,
scrubber in series.  Arrangements could not be made to measure this plant.
                                     38

-------
1.3


o
UJ 19
0 L'L
o
o
os
Q_
UJ
0
o , ,
•z. 1.1

-------
Using data from studies of standards of performance for the phosphate fertilizer
industry, we conservatively projected that emissions from anode plants can be
controlled with 90 percent efficiency.  Calculations based on the highest emission
rate from the two domestic plants (1.33 Ib TF/CAP) indicate a bake plant could
achieve 0.12 Ib TF/TCAP.
                                  -40-

-------
F.  Cost Analysis of Alternative-Fluoride Control Systems

    1.  Introduction
    The purpose of this section is to report the expected capital and annual
    costs for the control devices necessary to'meet the proposed standard of
    performance.  Generally two sizes of model plants are analyzed to show how
    •the control cost changes with size.  However, in the primary aluminum
    industry the control cost, per ton of aluminum production is not substan-
    tially affected by the size of the plant.  This is due to the physical
    arrangement of the potlines and the control systems.
     The basis  for coating  the  control  systems  was  to  consider
     control  device modules (i.e., several  aluminum reduction cells
     ducted.together and vented to a common control  device located
     in the :area between the potrooms).   Thus, to control  a
    larger plant additional modules are added.  The use of this method reduces
    the usual economics of scale  associated with control of  larger plants.
    The 'capital costs  for  each of the models discussed in the next section
    are reported in $/ton  of annual capacity.  The annual costs are reported
    in  $/ton of aluminum that would be produced at full capacity  rather  than
    in  $/ton of actual aluminum production.  Historically the ratio of pro-
    duction to capacity has varied widely, as  shown in Figure 14.  Therefore,
    $/ton  of capacity  is a more stable number  which can easily be converted
    to  $/ton of production for any  given production/capacity ratio.
     Numerous combinations  of control devices  have  and could  be used to con-
     trol emissions  from aluminum  smelters.   Each system has  a different  cost
     and control effectiveness.  Normally the  control  systems with higher

                                         41

-------
z
o
ce
O
x
O
  1


0.9


0.8



0.7



0.6




O.S





OX

              I _ L__' _ I _ 1 _ I __ ! _ ! _ L__l _ !

                                                                                        I
                                       _ __ _ _ __ _ __ _ __
         1943     1950    1952     1954    1956    1958     1960     1962     1964     1966     1968     1970
                                                YEAR







                     DATA  SOURCE: A.l M.MIHU.'A STATISTICS, 19i9  THE  /.lUMINL'M  ASSOCIATION


                      Figure 14.  Excess capacity U.S. primary aluminum industry.
                                         42

-------
  efficiency cost more.  For two of the cell types in this industry, the


  expected cost-effectiveness relationship does not hold.  In fact, the


  most effective control systems for the pre-bake and vertical-stud Soder-


  berg cells are relatively low-cost systems due to credits from recovered


  material.  'This  effect can  be seen-on  Figures 15  and  16,  wh.ich display the net



  annual control costs vs. control effectiveness for several control systems.


  Thus, the proposed standard which is based on  best demonstrated  technology


  is also the  "best" from a control cost standpoint, that is, a  lower  cost



  system.




  The  control  cost for the  horizontal  stud  Soderberg cells  will  be higher


  since the complex wet control  system necessary to meet the 'proposed


  standard  does not yield any'credits  for recovered material.   In this


 *'eetse the  usual  relationship between  cost  and-effectiveness  is shown  in



 "• Figure  17.




  2.   Model  Plants


               "B   *'                                 '
   a.   Prebake Cells




   Since prebake cells can be tightly hooded, the proposed standard can


   be met by a good primary control system for the gases collected from


;,-«the. reduction cells. -With a good primary control system, no secondary


   control devices  should be required on the potroom roof vents.




   One of the  most attractive control systems  (the  fluidized-bed dry
         •  •  ,  • •=*.               f                      r     '•

   scrubber--FBDS)  for prebake  cells uses a fluidized bed of alumina to


   absorb the  gaseous  fluorides  and a  baghouse  to trap  the  particulate


   emissions and any entrained  alumina.  A  second similar system (the




                               43

-------

.a
s
CO
o
CO
_J
•z.
•=C
LU


1.0

.8
.6
.4


.2

_

	 2 •
•
8 11
1 ' 4 10 5 7
0. iu a ,
• • 9
-12 6
0


	 \ 	 1 1 1 I
                         468

               TOTAL OUTLET EMISSIONS,  lb F/ton Al
                                                       10
 Primary Control Equipment
 1.
 2.
 3.
 4.
 5.
 6.
 7.
 8.

 9.
10.
11.
12.
Fluid Bed Dry Scrubber
Miltiple Cyclones plus Venturi  Scrubber
Mi Hi pie Cyclones plus High  Pressure  Spray Screen
Dry Electrostatic Precipitator  plus Spray Tower
Multiple Cyclones plus Cross  Flow  Packed  Bed  Scrubber
Multiple Cyclones plus Spray  Tower
Spray Tower
Multiple Cyclones plus Dry Electrostatic  Precipitator plus
Spray Tower
Multiple Cyclones, plus Vertical Flow Packed  Bed  Scrubber
Multiple Cyclones, plus Floating Ball Wet Scrubber
Chamber Scrubber
Injected Alumina Dry Scrubber

Figure 15. Cost/effectiveness plot for prebake  process.
                        44

-------
- T-8
S:
r—
-t»-
GO
O
O
_l
«=c
B i.o




. 2

1,9
3,9 .4,9
5,9
- J6,9

2 9
0.8-9
i
— t
3 .4
5
'.6
•7
_
2
i: 8 | I 	 	 1 	
           2468

            TOTAL OUTLET EMISISONS, lb F/ton Al


Primary Control Equipment

1.  Spray Tower plus Wet Electrostatic Precipitator
2.  Fluid-Bed Dry Scrubber
3.  Dry Electrostatic Precipitator Plus  Spray  Tower
4.  Multiple Cyclones plus Venturi Scrubber
5.  Multiple Cyclones plus High-Pressure Spray Screens
6.  Multiple Cyclones plus Cross  Flow Packed Bed Scrubber
7.  Spray Tower
8.  Injected Alumina Dry Scrubber
9.  Spray Screen - Secondary  Control


   Figure 16.  Cost effectiveness plot for VSS process.
                      45

-------
   3.0 -
   2.0
«=c
.a
oo
o
o
   1.0
                          3
                          *
          	1	I	I	1	
                     2468

                      TOTAL OUTLET EMISSIONS,  1b  F/ton Al

         1.   Cross Flow Packed Bed Scrubber  plus  Wet Electrostatic
             Precipitator
         2.   Spray Tower plus Wet Electrostatic Precipitator
         3.   Cross Flow Packed Bed Scrubber
         4.   Spray Tower
         5.   Floating Ball Wet Scrubber

               Figure 17.  Cost effectiveness plot for HSS process.
                            46

-------
injected alumina dry scrubber—IADS) based on the same principle
injects the alumina into the gas stream where adsorption of the
fluorides takes place.  The spent alumina is then fed to the reduc-
tion cell.  One of the attractive features of the dry systems is that
the captured alumina and fluorides are returned to the cells, thus
reducing input material costs.
Table 3 shows the capital and annual costs for control of prebake
cells^  The costs for control of the vertical and horizontal stud
Soderberg cells are also shown  for  easy  comparison.   Included  in the
capital cost are the  primary  collection  system  (hoods and ducts;,  the
fans  and  other  auxiliary equipment,  the  collection device,  and water
treatment facilities  if required.   All control  costs  are given in
terms of  1972 dollars.   Current costs are approximately 20 percent greater.

 Since the carbon  anodes used  in the prebake cells  are made  in  a
 separate  operation, the anode baking furnace emissions  must be added
 to the reduction  cell emissions in order to determine the  total emis-
 sions which are covered by the proposed standard.   Table 4 presents
 the range of control  costs for the anode baking furnace.  The low end
 of the range is based on a control system consisting of a precooler,
 dry electrostatic precipitator, and a wet scrubber.  The high end of
 the range is based on using a wet scrubber followed by a wet electro-
 static precipitator.  A water  treatment system is included in the
 costs.  Table 5 shows a summary of the  control cost range for the three
 cell types.
                                47

-------
            Table 3.  COST OF POTLINE CONTROLS FOR ALUMINUM REDUCTION SMELTERS9
Cell Type
Control Equipment13
Capital Cost ($/Ton)
Annual Cost ($/Ton)
Operating and
Maintenance
Depreciation 8%
Administrative
Overhead 5%
Property Tax,
Insurance 2%
15%
Interest 8%
Royal tyd
Gross Annual Cost
Credits (Alumina @
$0. 032/1 b, and
Fluoride @ $0.25/
Ib
Net Annual Cost
($/ton)
(*/lb)
Prebake
1°-FBDS
67C

5.57
10.02
1
5.36
.33
21.28
(10.54)
10.74
0.54
1°-IADS
59

4.35
8.80

4.70
—
17.85
(10,54)
7.31
0.37
Vertical
Stud Soderberg
1°-FBDS
2°-SS
95C

9.70
14.31

7:64
.33
31.98
(9.19)
22.79
1.14
1°-ST+WESP
2°-SS
117

11.69
17.49

9.32
--
38.50

38.50
1.93
Horizontal
Stud
Soderberg
1°-ST+WESP
' 193
~
11.89
28.91

15.46
__
56.26,

56.26
2.81
 Singmaster & Breyer, Air Pollution Control in the Primary Aluminum Industry, July
 23, 1973, under Contract No. CPA 70-21 for the Environmental Protection Agency.
 Updated to 1972 dollars.

bFBDS - Fluidized Bed Dry Scrubber
 IADS - Injected Alumina Dry Scrubber
 ST - Spray Tower
 WESP - Wet Electrostatic Precipitator
 SS - Spray Screen

 In addition  a $100,000 one-time fee is charged per company for this design.

 Correspondence with Mr. Holmes, Manager, Badin (N.C.) Works, ALCOA.
1° = primary control system
2° = secondary control system
48

-------
   Table 4.   CONTROL COSTS FOR PREBAKE ANODE BAKING FURNACES
Control Equipment
Capital Cost ($/Ton)
Annual Cost U/lb)
PC+DESP+WS
6
0.088
or WS+WESP*
-12
- 0.20
PC - Preeooler
WS - Wet Scrubber
DESP - Dry Electrostatic Precipitator
WESP - Wet Electrostatic Precipitator
                            49

-------
Table 5.  SUMMARY OF CONTROL COSTS FOR PRIMARY ALUMINUM PLANTS
Costs
Capital Cost ($/Ton)
Annual Cost U/lb)
PB (Reduction Cells Plus
Anode Baking Furnace)
65 to 79
0.45 to 0.74
VSS
95 to 117
1.14 to 1.93
HSS
193
2.82
                             50

-------
b.  Vertical Stud Soderberg Cells
The physical arrangement of the vertical stud Soderberg (VSS) cell
makes complete collection of the gases difficult.  The control costs
reported for the VSS cells in Tables 3 and 5 are based on the assump-
tion that a secondary control system on the potroom roof vents will
be necessary to meet the proposed standard.               '

The primary control systems reported are the FBDS and spray tower  ;
plus wet electrostatic precipitator combination  (ST + WESP).  The
secondary control system is a spray screen device (SS).  Although  no
VSS cells are presently controlled with the IADS system, there does
not seem to be any reason why they couldn't be controlled with the
IADS.  The  costs for a primary  IADS system would be less than the  FBDS
system by the same proportion that it  is for the prebake cell.
The present hood design for VSS cells  allows enough gas to escape
into the potroom so that the total emissions from a plant with only -  •
a primary control system would  exceed  the  proposed standard  by a
factor of 2 to 5.  The costs reported  here assume that a secondary
system will be required.   Since the secondary  system  is expensive
and  relatively inefficient,  some  manufacturers may elect to  improve
the  hooding to raise  the collection efficiency so that a primary  con-
trol system alone will meet  the proposed  standard.  This alternative
could  result  in  lower costs  than  for  the  system  reported here, but
it has yet  to be proven.   Table 6 shows the  breakdown of control  cost
between  the primary and  secondary control  systems.  Obviously, there
 is considerable  cost  incentive  to improve  the  hooding so that a  primary
 system alone  could meet  the  proposed  standard.
                               51

-------
           Table 6.  CONTROL COSTS FOR VERTICAL STUD SODERBERGS3


Control Equipment
Capital Cost ($/Ton)
Annual Cost ($/Ton)
Operating and Maintenance
Depreciation 8%
Administrative Over-
head 5%
Property Tax,
Insurance 2%
15%
Interest 8%
Royalty0
Gross Annual Cost
Credits (Alumina @
$0. 032/1 b, flouride
0 $0.25/lb)
Net Annual Cost
($/ton)
(*/lb)
Control System
Primary
ST+WESP
53

4.28





7.91
4.21
—
16.40


—

16.40
0.82
Secondary
SS
64

7.41





9.58
5.11
—
22.10


—

22.10
1.11
1
Total
—
117

11.69





17.49
9.32
—
38.50


---

38.50
1.93
I Control System 2
Primary
FBDS
31b

2.29





4.73
2.53
0.33
9.88


[9.19)

0.69
0.03
Secondary
SS
64

7.41





9.58
5.11
• —
22.10


—

22.10
i.n
Total
—
95

9.70





14.31
7.64
0.33
31.98


(9.19)

22.79
1.14
aSingmaster and Breyer, Air Pollution Control in the Primary Aluminum Industry,
 July 23, 1973, under Contract CPA 70-21 for the Environmental Protection
 Agency.  Updated to 1972 dollars.


 In addition, a $100,000 one-time fee is charged per company for this design.
f+
 Correspondence with Mr. Holmes, Manager, Badin, N.  C.  Works, ALCOA.
                                  52

-------
   c.  Horizontal Stud Soderberg  Cells
   The horizontal stud Soderberg  cells might be  hooded well  enough  to
   meet  the  proposed  standard  by  the installation  of a good  primary
   system alone.  The control  system reported in Tables  3 and 5 is  a wet
   scrubber  plus  a  wet electrostatic precipitator  combination.   This is
   the only  system  that  has been  demonstrated at this time.   However,  it
   is an expensive  system with no credits for recovery of fluorides or
   alumina.   The  hydrocarbon tars given  off in this process  have pre-
   vented the use of the dry systems up  to this  time. Research is  being
   done  to determine the technical and economic feasibility of using the
   dry  systems for  this  type of cell.  Indications are that if the  dry
    systems can be used,  the costs will  be significantly  reduced for
    control of the horizontal cells.
3. Monitoring System Cost
In order to accurately measure the emissions escaping through the roof
vents, a representative sample must be taken.  One way to accomplish this.
is to install a permanent sample collection system.  The system consists of
a sampling manifold along the roof vent which is aucted to an exhaust fan
and stack.  A composite sample of the roof vent  gas can then  be measured
at the stack.  Several anemometers are installed along the roof vent to
measure  the gas velocity.  The estimated  capital cost of this system in
a pot room  is $8500.   For a plant producing 100,000  tons pe^ year, the
total cost would  be about $34,000  (assuming  four potrooms).   The annual
cost for this  system  is about $8400  excluding thb  "  ,x» cost  for collecting
c'.d analyzing  the samrles.   The annual cost  per  pound of  alunr.ncti is about
                               53

-------
4.  Control Costs to Meet Existing State Standards
Table 7 shows the estimated average emisisons, control level, and con-
trol costs for existing plants as of 1971'.   In the absence of a new
source performance standard, new aluminum plants would probably invest
at least as much as the 1971 average for control equipment.  As shown
by the cost ranges in Table 7, the costs of  controlling some prebake and
VSS cells to levels required by existing State standards are now near
the costs estimated for the proposed standard.

A "high side" approximation of the added cost due to the new source per-
formance standard can be determined by the difference between the costs
in Tables 5 and 7.  These results are shown  in Table 8.  The added cost
for preba-ke plants-is relatively small..  The added cost for VSS is greater,
and the added cost for the HSS is substantial.

The differential control cost would increase the control efficiency to
approximately 96-97 percent from the 1971 industry average of about 74
percent.  The emission rate would be reduced from the 1971 industry average
of about 12 pounds per ton to 2.0 pounds per ton.
5.  Cost Effectiveness of Secondary Control  Systems

The preceding discussion of*control costs is based on the assumption that
the proposed standard can be met by the use of good hooding and a high-
efficiency primary control system on the prebake and HSS cells.  Because of
the problem of complete hooding around the VSS cells, the VSS cell plants
will probably require a secondary control system.  Even with good hooding
                                 54

-------
             Table 7.  1971 PRIMARY ALUMINUM  INDUSTRY COSTS,

                       CONTROL LEVEL, AND EMISSION RATEa
Cell Type
Prebake
Vertical
Stud
Soderberg
Horizontal
Stud
Soderberg
Total
Industry
Capacity
(1000 Tons)
3020
601
1033
4654
Capital Cost
($/ton) ,
50.10.
(28-100r
60.50
(32-109)
49.00
52.20
Annual Cost
(*/lb)
0.54
(0.19-1.23)
UOO
(0.48-1.84)
0.84
0.67
Overall Control
Efficiency (85)
73.9
82.6
70.3
74.2 .-
Emission Rate
(lb F/ton Al)
12.0
8.0
13.6
11.8
a
 Singmaster and Breyer, Air Pollution Control  in the Primary Aluminum Industry
 July 23, 1973, under Contract CPA 70-21  for the Environmental  Protection Agency.

bNumbers in parentheses indicate the range of costs reported for existing plants.
                                 55

-------
Table 8.  RANGE OF APPROXIMATE COST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROPOSED
          STANDARD OF PERFORMANCE AND EXISTING STATE STANDARDS
Costs
A Capital Cost
($/ton)
A Annual Cost .
U/lb)
Prebake
14.90 to 28.90
(0.09) to 0,20
VSS
34.50 to 56.50
0.15 to 0.93
HSS
144.0
1.98

-------
a small amount of emissions will escape capture at the cell.  Secondary
control systems on the roof could be installed to remove some of these
emissions.  The following discussion is based on uncontrolled secondary
emissions of 1.5 pounds per ton of aluminum escaping from the best
primary control systems for PB and HSS cell plants.

The cost effectiveness of adding secondary controls can be illustrated
by looking at two types of secondary emission control.  The first type
would involve the installation of a spray screen as the secondary control
system on the PB and HSS cell plants.  To meet the same degree of control,
the VSS plant would probably have to upgrade their secondary control sys-
tem to that described for the second type.  The spray screen is the least
expensive secondary control system, and it is estimated to achieve about
a 35 percent reduction of the 1.5 pounds per ton of secondary emissions
for PB and HSS  cell'piants.
the second type of  secondary control would involve the installation of a
cross  flow packed bed  (CFPB) scrubber  on the PB and HSS plants.   It is
questionable whether the VSS plant  could achieve this degree of control.
The CFPB  scrubber is highly efficient  in removing  gaseous fluorides,  but
it is  not as efficient in  removing  small particulates.  A combined  removal
efficiency for the  1.5 pounds per ton  secondary emissions of about  60
percent  has  been  estimated with this device.   The  higher cost and effi-
ciency for the CFPB scrubber are compared  with those  for the spray  screen
 and  the  proposed  standard  in Table  9.   The overall  efficiencies are based
 on  a  primary control  system  of  96 percent  efficiency  and uncontrolled
 secondary emissions of 1.5 pounds per  ton  of aluminum.
                                  57

-------
                                           CO
CO
LU

CO
CO
                       Ord
                       10 I—
                      CJ
                       ore
cu
                       00  O
                                   re
                                   re
                      •r-  CU
                                   CU   CO U
                                   CO   > T-
                                   o  o <*-
                                                     S-   O 4-
                                                                              CO
                                                                      cu

                                                                      CU   r^
r—   CO  O
 O   > •!-
 S-   O H-
                                                                                               CO           O M-



                                                                                              §°       E«


                                                                                              r—  O       4->  O
                                                                                              •	1-       oo  E
                                                                                              co  re
                                                                                                  0)
                                                                                               i-  03

                                                                                               O  E
                                                                                               0  S-
                         C S-
                         O CO
                         CJ 4->
                            re

                         b3

                        ||

                         C re
                                                                                              t-  3
                                                                                              cu
                                                                                       XI    CI r—
                  o    -T3  c:
                  •t-     O  O
                  oo     o  o
                  oo     en co

                  EC:"
                  CO     O  C
                            CO
                  co    -a  cu
                  -a     co  s-
                  •1-     CO  CJ-
                                                                                       r—    oo  re
                                                                                                  a. E
                                                                                              •o  oo  co
                                                                                       i—    re  re  co
                                                                                                 0)  i-
                                                                                              0) >, C
                                                                                        E:     Q.I—
                                                                                        o     o i—  >,
                                                                                              s- QJ  s-
                                                                                                 CO  S-
                                                                                                           (U  O
                                      3  cu
                                         Q.
                                     T3  >»
                                      CO +->
                                                                                                           u  cu
                                                                                                           o  o
                                                                                                           re co
                                                                                                           re   CO
                                                                                                           £?g*:
                                                                                                           c S- ca
                                                                                                           a> o Q-
                   o
             u -a
             co s- cu
                re x:
                                                                                                           s. re co
                                                                                                           re a. co
                                                                                                            a.
                          S? >>
                                                                                                                        O QJ
                                                                                                          •r- a. E    T- a.
                                                                                                                       -a i-
                                                                                                                        c:  cu
                                                                                                                        QJ <»-
                                                                                                          •p- co >,    M-  co
                                                                                                              s--a
                                                                                                                        0)  0)
                                                                                                                                  (U
                                                                                                                                  QJ
                                                                                                                                  0)
                                                                                                                                  «
                                                                                                                        S-       •!-
                                                                                                                                  CU
                                                                                                                        S- O    r—
                                                                                                                        O CO    T-
                                                                                                                        o re    x:
                                                  o a.
                                                  o
                                                  cu  cu
                                                  oo .c
                                                                                                                       XI 0
                                                                                                                        S- T3    i—  s-
                                                                                                                        O S-     CU +J
                                                                                                                        co re     o  c-
                                                                                                                           T3        o
                                                                                                                       CQ C    CO  o
                                                                                                                       o- re    co
                         CJ  CO
                                   cu
                          re -a    x:,—
                             cu    +•> co
                                                           £""
                                                            O  CU
                                                            £*- >
                                                            CU  CO
                                                                                                                                 CO
CO O

9 <->

-------
As shown in Table 9, the cost of control rises sharply with each incre-
mpnt of control efficiency, designated in the table as Proposed Stan-
dard (96 percent), Control Level #2 (97 percent), and Control Level #3
(98 percent).  For example, the annual control cost for the prebuke cell
more than doubles in going from the proposed standard to Control Level
#2 and goes up by a factor of 3 to 4 between the proposed standard and
Control Level #3.
The cost effectiveness of the various control systems in terms of cost
per pound of fluoride emissions captured  is  shown in Tables  10-12.  For
the prebake process shown in Table 10,  the industry is currently spending
$50 of capital per  ton of aluminum capacity  in order to capture 74 percent
of the fluoride  emissions from  the process.   This  is equivalent to $1.35
per pound  of fluoride captured.   In  order to achieve a control  level  of
96 percent,  the  industry would  have  to  spend a total  of $73 of capital
per ton  of aluminum capacity.   Therefore, the average  cost for the entire
48 pounds  of fluoride  that could be  captured per ton  of aluminum  capacity
 amounts to $1.52.  This  is equivalent to $1.35 for the first 37 pounds of
 fluoride captured and  $2.09 for the  next 11  pounds of fluoride captured.
 It can be seen that a  large gap exists between the capital costs  required
 for fluoride control  at the proposed standard level (96 percent)  and
 Control Level #2 (97 percent).   Whereas the average capital cost per pound
 of fluoride removed only increases from $1.52/lb to $2.45/lb, the cost of
 capturing the additional 0.5 pound of fluoride amounts to $92.00/lb of
 fluoride.  The operating costs for the fluoride control  systems behave
 in a  similar manner.  It costs an average of $32.00/Tb of fluoride

                                  59

-------
                      i— —I  CU
                      CO     S-
                        .-O  a.
                      CO X»  CO
                      CJ
                            CJ
                         
i- +J-i- £=
CU E Q- O
> O CO I—
 ~ CJ CJ —.
                      CO
     cu

' -d  3
                       co  S-  
&-+•>•!-
cu c: a. o
> o as\—
 ", O CJ '
          BtL
          CO
          CO
      «*
                                 o oo 10
                                 io CM «*
                                 in CM LD oo
                                 ff) If) ^ if)
                                      • CM OO
                                 O OO CT1 LO
                                   - VO 1
                                          00
         o o to o>
           •   •   •   •
         1^ CO CO CO
         CO
          cu

          CU
          t? S- CM OO
         -P  to =tt==fe
          t/) T3
          ZI  C i— i —
         -O  CO   >
         t-H CO  O)  i—  3
                                           c/>-  •»->
                                           o -a  a.
                                           o -a
                                             CU •—    •—
                                             CD O    
                                             S- 4-> VI -Q
                                             CU C O r—
                                             > O CJ *-^
                                              ". O    -t*
                                            (A —1

                                           CJ  S- -
                                               cu  o
                                                ,  ST
                                                 o
                                         CU i—    r-:
                                         en o
                                         CO  S- 4->
                                         i. 4->  10 J3
                                         CU  C  O i
                                            p cj-
  co
 CU T3
-a  cu
•r-  S-

 o •«->
 3  Q.
i—  co
U- CJ
                                                                       Oi—
                                                                       s- a>
                                                                       c cu
                                                           en in o o
                                                           CM i— O UO
                                                                              o o CM r^
                                                                                    oo co
                                                      o to o o
                                                      «* oo o to
                                                      10 o oo i
                                                        •   •   •
                                                      o o o o
                                                                              cr> <
                                                                                      > a>
                                                           CM CM LO OO

                                                           O O '
                                                           o LO LO 10
                                                           «d- CM CM
                                                           IO VO «*• i
                                                            »   •   •
                                                           O O r— CM
                                                                                    CT»
                                                                                      . oo
                                                           O O 10 CT»
                                                             •   •   •   •
                                                           T*~CQ CQ CQ
                                                           co «*«*
                                                            cu
                                                            >   .
                                                            cu
                                                           _i


                                                            t? S- CM CO
                                                           •!->  CO =«==«=
                                                            w> -a
                                                            3  c: r— r—
                                                           -a  co  cu  cu
                                                            c •!->>>
                                                           HH CO  CU  CD

                                                            cn-o
                                                            c  cu •—
                                                           •i-  u>  o  o
                                                           4->  O  S-  S-
                                                      •r-  O
                                                       X  S- O O
                                                      UJ Q- O CJ
                                                                            CU

                                                                            cu
                                                                                                cu
                                                                                                CJ
                                                                             cu
                                                                             in
                                                                             to
                                                                            CQ
                                                                           to
                                                60

-------
captured to go from 48.0 pounds to 48.5 pounds of fluoride captured,
whereas the cost of capturing the first 37.0 pounds of fluoride is
$0.29/lb and the cost of capturing the next 11 pounds of fluoride is
$0.15/lb.
Table 11 shows that a similar gap exists between the proposed standard
level and  Control  Level #2 for the vertical stud Soderberg process.
Capital  requirements average $4.29 per pound  of fluoride captured at
97  percent control  versus $2.21  per  pound of  fluoride captured at 96
percent control,  but the cost  of capturing  the last  0.5 pound of fluoride
costs  $204.00/lb  versus $1.45/lb for the  first 41.5  pounds of fluoride
captured and $7.08 for the  next  6.5  pounds  of fluoride captured. Operating
 costs  amount to $26.00/lb  of fluoride captured for the last  0.5  pound
 captured versus $0.48/lb  for the first 41.5 pounds captured  and  $1.63 for
              •
 the next 6.5 pounds of fluoride captured.
 Table 12, which measures the cost effectiveness of various control  levels
 on the horizontal stud Soderberg process, again shows a large gap between
 the costs  incurred at a control level of 96  percent versus a control
 level of  97 percent.
                                    61

-------
                      to
                             co
                      a.-a -t->
                      o5 -o  a.
                      o  O  03 t—
                  =C CJ CJ '
                      re
                      4-> .
                             a>
UJ
CO
O
CO
co
uj
                      re  s-  a
                      o  a)
                     •&=»•
            O Q-
            -

                   CD r— r— i—
                   o> o  03 «=c
                   tO S- ^
                   S- +•> -r-  C
                          Q. O
                   O)
                           .
                   > O  03 I—
                         CJ>
CO
CO        »-<
UJ
          CO
UJ        1—1
>        s:
HH        UJ
o
UJ
u_
   re
 CO T3
T3 CO
•i~ i-
 S- 3
 O -I-5
 3 Q.
i— re
U. CJ
UJ
CO

8
 cu
          CO
          a:
                         s-  
                                 LO CD LO
                                   •   •  •

                                 i— oo oo
                      O)

                      cu
                      S- S- CM
                     -l-> 03 =f»=
                      
                      = •»->>
                     i— i co ai
                                  E  CU i—
                                 •r-  W O
                                 -»->  O S-
                                 •r-  o e:
                                 X  S- O
                                 ui a. c_>
                                      o
                                      I—I
                                      co
                                      CO
                                                  UJ
                                                 CO
                                                 cr
                                                 UJ
                                                 cc
                                                 CO
                                                 o
                                                 CJ
                                                 C£3
                                              CO
                                                 co
                                                 o
                                                 O
                                              •=Ct—
                                              I—CO
                                              oo
                                              1—0
                                                                    a» .a  a>
                                                                    a—i  s-
                                                           -a
                                            cn o
                                            03  S- +J
                                            s- +•> w
                                            CO  E O r—
                                            >  o o •
                                           =C O
                                                                           ai
                                                                        s-  a.
                                                                        at  to
                                                                          O
                                            co i—    i—
                                            01 O
                                            03  S- +J
                                            5- •»-> in
                                            co  c o i—
                                            >  o o •
                                                           ro
                                                        a> T3
                                                        -a  aj
                                                        •r-  S-
                                                        S-  3
                                                        O 4->
                                                        3  a.
                                                        r—  fO
                                                  S- 0)
                                                  -!-> >
                                                  C 0)
                                                                       CJ
                                                                                co
                                                                               o i— CM
                                                                               LO O O
                                                                               a> co
                                                                               CD CD i
                                                                   oo •* r~-
                                                                   •xt" VO CM

                                                                   CD O r—
Ln un 10
01 CM r-.
cy> LO o

O i-^ OO
                                                                               oo
                                                                                      CT>
                                                                   LO CD LO
                                                                     •  •   •

                                                                   r— CO OO
                                                          ai
                                                          >
                                                          at
 S-  S- CM
-t->  * =tt=
  73
 3  S= i—
TD  
w CO OJ
                                                                    C OJ r—

                                                                   •r- t/> O

                                                                   +J O J-
                                                                   •r- O £=
                                                                    X S- O
                                                                   UJ Q- O
                                                                         O)

                                                                         
-------


oo
oo
UJ
o
o
0-
CD
UJ
CQ
OL
UJ

o
CO
a
CO
i
«a:
o
i — t

o
3C
o
1 1

oo
_i
h-
O

_J
 O
•z.
1 — 1








• _
SC^
O D_
1— 4




1-1 _l
OO O
00 OS
i— i fr"~~
s: "z.
uj o
o
u_
§
oo •-«
oo oo
UJ OO
§ £
:> LU
1_H
0 0
UJ U-
1 |
u_ oo
III 1
UJ r^
1— UJ
00 EC
O UJ
o cc
i — i
c
CM U-
i — ££

*" 5
la i—
co 1-1
*~ 5
















•
I-H

r— _i -a
ro CU
+•>•— S-
•i 	 3
a. -a 4->
CO T3 O.
O
oo S—
 —
O5 O CO 
£- 4-> T- E
co c a- o
> 0 fO 1—
=c o o-~.
•t^
~~^

co o.
-IJ J3 S-
Q. £
CO S- Q.
O CO CO
a. o
-faO-
u_


r—
3) O CO
co s- •«-> c:
_ 4^ .|« o
co c a-i—
> O CO ~~-
fsC C_> O -t/5-
1
&-~

J" "^




"aj
>
CO
	 1
^^^p cvl cv^
4-* co =fc ~^
3 C i — r—
"O CO OJ OJ

i— I OO CO <
O1T3
E CO i — i—
•i— C/J O C
•»-> O S- :
•p- O £=
X S- O C
LUQ- O C_




















_J
0
H-
O
U
O
1— 1
oo
oo
1— 1
2:
o
u_
00
UJ
SI
LU
i — i
Cy
UJ
*^

H-
OO
f
tj
05
•z.
^
ct
c2
LU
0-



_l
•=c
t
~^
S OO
LU O
ce: c_>
o
^z.
i — i








_i
 t— •)->
t/I - Q.
O T3 fO
o -a o
"^ L
TrT






CO i — i —
05 0 «=C
CO S- •!->
S- •)-> cn JD
CO C O c—
> 0 0~^.


"O
S3
^^
CO
OO u.



CO r—
O5 O
CO S- 4J
S_ +-> W
cu c o
> o <_>
=co



CO "O
"O CO
•r- S^
0 4J
3 Q
r— CO
U_ CJ









r—
O
E
O
CJ

VLI
4-*
O
rc
«
UL.


J^
et;
.a
<—^

&i


E
o
_








(
1



OO CM CD CD
>=1- O CD m
• • • •
OO •* CM
•=J- CM





LO LO ^3 ^3
CO VO O LO
CO CT* i — *3"
* • • *
0 •— i— 0





OO  C-. CO
r^* en en en


o o m en
in co co a
oo •* >=i- «*



^_
CO
^*
CO
1

S- S- CM OO
+J CO =8==*
to ~o
3 E i — c—
•O CO CO <

I-H oo co a
_i _
E CO i— r-
•i— in o
+•> o s-
01 Q-4-> +-
•i- O E
>i S- 0
LU D- O C_


















.
S
E
O
JD
O
LO
<1-
o
c;
o
•r—
•r-
CO
CO
•a
&I
o
3

M—
TD
CO

'
O
4-)
0
E

E
0
TO
CO
CO
CO
63

-------
6.  Economic Analysis of Proposed Standards

    1.  Economic Profile:  Domestic Primary Aluminum Industry
    The domestic primary aluminum industry has been characterized until  rather
    recently by a Targe increase in primary ingot production capacity that
    has not been matched by a corresponding expansion of demand.   This situation
    led to excess capacity in the industry along with larger than normal
    inventory accumulations.   This, in turn, caused a great deal  of downward
    pressure on primary ingot prices and resulted in reduced profits for
    domestic producers.  Not only did the rate of expansion of domestic  primary
    ingot production capacity outstrip domestic demand,  but total  free world
    production capacity expanded at a faster rate than the growth in total
    free world demand.  This led to a world-wide situation of over-capacity
    and reduced prices.  Recent indications are that the rate of  expansion
    of primary ingot capacity, both domestic and foreign, has slowed to  a    •  - ,
    rate that more nearly matches future projections of  demand for aluminum.
    This is now beginning to be reflected in rising prices for primary aluminum
    ingot.  Increased profitability for individual  producers is expected
    to follow rising ingot prices.
    Table 13 summarizes the major uses of aluminum ingot and mill  products
    for the years 1967  and 1972.  Whereas the total uses of aluminum increased
    by 34 percent and 4.5 million tons in 1967 to 6.0 million tons in 1972,
    the two categories  of building/construct!on and containers/ packaging
    increased by 64 and 109 percent, respectively.   Usage of aluminum in
    the transportation  sector, which occupies second place in terms of total
                                64

-------
                 Table  13.   DOMESTIC, ALUMINUM USAGE
                                    1967-1972
       End Use
Building & Construction
Transportation
Containers & Packaging
Electrical
Consumer Durables
Machinery & Equipment
Exports
Other
                                           Total  Shipments
                                          of Ingot and Mill
                                        Products  (Short Tons)
1967
964,500
889,500
434,000
624,000
415,500
308,500
328,500
508,500
4,473,000
1972
1,584,000
1,107,000
908,000
761 ,500
553,500
368,000
281 ,000
427,000
5,990,000
% Change
    64
    24
   109
    22
    33
    19
   (14)a
   (16)a
    34
 SOURCE:   Aluminum Statistical  Review  -  1972, The Aluminum Association.
 l()  Denotes decrease.
                                  65

-------
  shipments,  increased  by  24  percent between 1967 and 1972.  The use of
  aluminum  in  the  building and construction industry is by far the largest
  applications of  aluminum.   This use accounted for over 26 percent of the
  total used in 1972.  The next largest market in 1972, the transportation
  sector, accounted for 18 percent of the total use of aluminum ingot and
 mill products.

 Table 14 summarizes the major sources of supply of primary aluminum ingot
 and mill products for 1967 and 1972.   Domestic sources (both  primary and
 secondary) are the major components  of total  supply,  accounting  for 88
 percent of the total  in 1967 and 87  percent of the  total  in 1972.   The
 supply of aluminum from domestic sources  increased  by  27  percent between
 1967 and 1972.   Output from  domestic  primary  producers increased by 26  per-
 cent during  this  period.   Recovery of imported scrap almost doubled  between
 1967 and 1972, and the  total  supply of aluminum from foreign sources in-
 creased  by almost 50 percent during the period.  Imports of primary metal,
 primarily  from Canada,  increased by 47 percent between 1967 and 1972S and
 account  for approximately 10 percent of the total aluminum supplies.

 Table 15 points out the increase in domestic primary aluminum capacity
 between  1967 and  1972.  Total domestic capacity increased by 44 percent
 from 3.3 million  tons in 1967 to 4.8 million tons in 1972.  Alcoa,  with
 a capacity increase of 420,000 tons (37 percent of its 1967 capacity of
 1,150,000 tons) contributed 29 percent of the  total  increase of 1.5 million
tons.  Three new firms entered the primary aluminum makret between  1967
and 1972.  These three firms, National Southwire,  Revere,  and  Noranda
                                66

-------
                      Table 14.  DOMESTIC ALUMINUM SUPPLIES
                                         1967-1972


Domestic Primary Production
Domestic Secondary Recovered
Total Domestic Sources
Primary Imports
Imported Scrap Recovered
Imported Mill Products
Total Imported
Total Supply
(Excluding Stockpile)
19f
Tons3
3,269,500
878,000
4,147,500
449,500
27,500
65,500
542,500
4,690,000
57
% of
Total
69.7
18.7
88.4
9.6
0.6
1.4
11.6
100.0
1972
Tonsa
4,122,500
1,126,000
5,248,500
659,500
47,000
96,000
809,500
6,051,000

% of
Total
68.1
18.6
86.7
10.9
0.8
1.6
13.3
100.0

% Increase
1967-1972
26
28
27
47
71
47
48
29
aAll  supplies in short tons.
SOURCE:  Aluminum Statistical  Review -  1972, The Aluminum Association.
                                             67

-------
                   Table 15.  DOMESTIC PRIMARY ALUMINUM CAPACITY
Producers
Alcoa
Reynolds
Kaiser
Ormet
Howmet
Martin Marietta
Anaconda
National Southwire
Consolidated
Amax
Revere
Noranda

Total Domestic Capacity
1967-1972
;*
1967 (Tons)3
1,150,000
815,000
670,000
240,000
76,000
88,000
100,000
—
106,000
76,000
—
—
a
1972 (Tons)3
1,570,000
975,000
710,000
250,000
217,500
201 ,000
180,000
180,000
175,000
130,500
112,000
70,000
Increase
Tons
429,000
160,000
40,000
10,000
141,500
113,000
80,000
180,000
69,000
54,500
112,000
70,000
%
37
20
6
4
186
128
80
NA
65
72
NA
NA
3,321,000
4,771,000
1,450,000
44
 All quantities in short tons.
 SOURCE:  Aluminum Statistical Review - 1972, The Aluminum Association.
                                             68

-------
contributed 362,000 tons of capacity,  or 25 percent of the total  increase
of 1.5 million tons.  The total  increase in domestic primary aluminum
capacity between 1967 and 1972 of 44 percent was approximately 30
percent more than the increase in total aluminum usage of 34 percent
for the same time period (Table 13) and almost 50 percent more than the
increase in total supplies, both domestic and foreign, as shown in
Table 14.
Table 16 illustrates the point that increases in primary aluminum produc-
tion capacity were  not  limited only to domestic producers.  While domestic
capacity was increasing by 44 percent, total free world capacity was
increasing  by 68 percent to a total of 12,062,000 tons per year for
the time period 1967-1972.  Australia and  New Zealand  increased total
capacity by 210 percent (over 25  percent per year)  to  a total capacity
of 388,000 tons per year in 1972.   Japan,  starting  with a  1967 production
capacity of 436,000 tons per year, grew  by 206  percent (over  25 percent
per year)  to a  total capacity in  1972  of 1,332,000  tons per year  and
 thereby took over  third place from Canada  in  the ranking  of major alumi-
 num producers.
 Table 17 indicates that growth in free world production  capacity was not
 matched by production  increases.   Total free world production of 6,754,000
 tons in 1967 represented 94 percent of the total free world capacity of
 7,180,000 tons per year (Table 16).  While total free world capacity
 was increasing by  68 percent to 12,062,000 tons per year, the growth in
 free world production  was only 49 percent, resulting in  a decrease of
 plant  utilization  to 84 percent for the free world overall.  The United
                               69

-------
             Table 16.  FREE WORLD PRIMARY ALUMINUM CAPACITY
                                        1967 - 1972
Countries                       1967 (Tons)*
United States                    3,321,000
Canada                           1,050,000
Latin America (incl. Mexico)       139,000
Europe                           1,790,000
Japan                              436,000
India                              125,000
Africa & Mid-East                  172,000
Australia & New Zealand            125,000
Other                               22,000
Total Free World                 7,180,000
1972 (Tons)'
 4,771,000
 1,210,000
   259,000
 3,360,000
 1,332,000
   231,000
   451,000
   388,000
    60,000
12,062,000
Increase
   47
   15
   86
   88
  206
   85
  162
  210
  173
   68
 All quantities in short tons/year.
SOURCE:  U. S. capacities from Aluminum Statistical Review - 1972, The
         Aluminum Association.  1967 capacities for other countries from
         Aluminum-Profile of an Industry, Farin and Reibsamen (Metals Week),
         1969.  1972 capacities for other countries from Survey of Free
         World Primary Aluminum Capacity. 1971-1976, Stewart Spector,
         Oppenheimer & Company, February 28, 1972.
                                 70

-------
United States
Canada
Latin America
Europe
Japan
India
Africa & Mid-East
Australia &  New '.
Other
Total  Free World

1967 - 1972
1967
Production
(Tons)3
3,269,000
975,000
id. Mexico) 103,000
1,664,000
421 ,000
106,000
t 97,000
Zealand 102,000
17,000
6,754,000
% of
Capacity,
98
93
74
93
97
85
56
82
77
94

1972
Production
(Tons)9
4,122,000
1,020,000
239,000
2,650,000
1,119,000
197,000
359,000
323,000
52,000
10,081,000


% of
Capacity
86
84
92
79
84
85
80
83
87
84
      quantities  in  short tons.
 SOURCE:   Aluminum Statistics  -  1972,  The Aluminum Association.
                                      71

-------
States experienced a decline in plant utilization from 98 percent in
1967 to 86 percent in 1972.  During the same time period Europe declined
from 93 to 79 percent, and Japan declined from 97 to 84 percent.  Some
countries, notably Latin America and Africa/Mideast, increased their
plant utilization between 1967 and 1972, but the net result was still
a decline in utilization of free world capacity.

The rapid expansion of domestic and free world capacity relative to
demand'caused prices to fall for aluminum products.  Aluminum producers
faced with underutilized plant capacities chose to lower prices in order
to increase output.  Demand for aluminum, however, was not that respon-
sive to price movements, and the end result was that prices dropped
while output increased only marginally.  Producers kept increasing list
prices in hopes that realized prices would follow, but price discounting
continued as producers attempted to retain their share of the market.
The average list price for aluminum ingot in 1966 was approximately
24.5<£/lb, and discounts averaged about 0.5<£/lb.  This left a realized
price of approximately 24<£/lb.  In 1971 the list price had risen to
29<£/lb, but discounts on the order of 8-l/2<£/lb were sometimes encoun-
tered.  This meant that the realized price was as low as 20-l/2£/lb
for aluminum ingot.

Table 18 shows the effect that price-cutting and excess production
capacity had upon Alcoa, Reynolds, and Kaiser.  While total sales for
these three firms increased by 33 percent between 1967 and 1972, net
income after taxes decreased from a total of $209.9 million for the
three firms in 1967 to a total of $118.1 million in 1972, a decrease of

                              72

-------







oo
LU
Z3
Q
CD
0£.
O_

S
=>
^y
1 — 1
•z.
ID
"«=C
>_
*-^
^^
^~
i— i
rv^
0_




co
CU

il
O
4-}
c
cu
c
I-H










0)
01
S3
C"
O
^


r— cn to
• • *
co CM cn
CM VO r—
J^
•
LO
co
CO
cu
(O

to
CM

cn
^~
» co
co vo vo
«>t- CO CM
•fee-

CM O

co &5
vo — •
CD
S- i
o
o
£=
I"H
« \

(O
P1*^
VO
cn
1—
T™
.
CO
*<»•



CM en i to CD
r^* * • i • •
cn to i i— co

















r^ CD cn o CM
vo
cn co to i^. i^»
r^^


Q,
O
*TD
^^
^^

LU
tit
• -Li
Qi
3:
I—
rv
O
Ll_

•z.
CD
I-H
t—
^^
^^
fy
o
u_
•z.
t—t
_l
1— 1
z.
eC
•z.
j— i
u_

/"^
LU
H-
0
LU
_J
LU
OO














CO
CU
• r—
(O
OO

•t-i
CU
-^











cu

e: co vo «=j-
fB
-C OO VO CO
CJ CM •* CM







to
CM CD CM 'CO
t^k • • •
cn co CM o
i — to vo cn
^ r— cn
^« i-~*
c/^






to
r-. co o vo
to
cn CD ^f- i—
i— vo o r--
co co i*~
r—
•faO-







•
CO
r— CO
-a
CU i— S-
i— fO O CU
-Q O C CO
to o >> -i-
1— i— CU OS
cC O^ *^x


O
•
co
CO






cu

0 0
0
vo c
CD t-i
cn
CO 4->
•b^- CU
z.






^r
* ;
VO
co
cn
CM
"°a'
Dl
C
ro

CJ

CO

CM VO i— 1^ S-
.... o
to cn CM co Q.
*~* cn r^ ^- cu
*~~* **~* ^~* f°**
^~" -iii
0
o
oo

•
to
CM
1^
cn
^~
LU
CO CM r— i—
... oo
CM CD tO CO >
O i— •— >-
i— r~ •
•&O- -be- :z

-a
s_
(C
-a
id
oo
to

VO

r—
CO
^* ^~ ^^ cn —
...... . s_
oo r^ «d~ cn co o
o «* to CD s- o
i — CM tO • O_
•fee- -fee- i — cu
•fee- r- co 03
o to
-a cu -a
i- o nj
o cu -a

CO tO
C CO -t->
o cu oo
•r~ 4*^
CO i — O
-O i— E
i— S_ -r- CU LU
r— (OOCUr— E 73 " O
tO O C CO ^ "i" " 4-* g* ^-^» ~^
O r— CU 
-------
over 40 percent.  Profitability, as measured by net income as a percent
of total sales, decreased from an average of 7.2'percent for the three
firms in 1967 to 3.0 percent in 1972.  Of the three firms, Reynolds was
the most affected and Alcoa the least affected in terms of decrease in
profitability.

It appears, however, that the aluminum industry is now beginning to
experience an upturn in profitability.  This is due to the increasing
utilization of plant capacity, both domestic and foreign.  While projec-
tions beyond 1973 must be tentative, it appears that 1973 was a year of
recovery for the aluminum industry.  Ingot prices increased to 29<£/lb
and discounts were largely eliminated.  Net income for the three major
aluminum producers increased by almost 65 percent to $194 million in
1973 from $118 million in 1972.  Prices for aluminum ingot continued to
rise in 1974, reaching a level of 33.5<£/lb as of May 15, 1974.
2.  Economic Impact on the Domestic Aluminum Industry of the Proposed
    Standards of Performance
The additional capital requirements and operating costs for emission
control systems for new aluminum smelters are summarized in Table 19.  It
appears that one result of the imposition of new source standards upon
the domestic aluminum industry will be the acceleration of the current
trend in the industry toward the prebake process for aluminum production.
Emission control costs, at the level of the proposed standard, amount to
$73/ton of capacity for capital costs and 0.63<£/lb of aluminum produced
for operating costs for the prebake process.  This compares with capital
                                 74

-------
   Table 19.  SUMMARY OF EMISSION CONTROL CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS AND
            OPERATING COSTS FOR NEW SOURCE PRIMARY ALUMINUM SMELTERS

Process
Prebake



Vertical
Stud
Soderberg
Horizontal
Stud
Soderberg


Control Level
1) Average Existing (74%)a
2) Proposed Standard (95%)
3) Control Level #2 (97%)
4) Control Level #3 (98%)
1) Average Existing (83%)a
2) Proposed Standard (96%)
3) Control Level #2 (97%)
1) Average Existing (70%)a
2) Proposed Standard (96%)
3) Control Level #2 (97%)
4) Control Level #3 (98%)
Emission Control System Only:
Capital Requirement
($/Ton Capacity)
50
73
119
175
60
106
208
49
193
257
295
Annual Cost
U/lb-Al)
0.54
0.63
1.43
2.18
1.00
1.53
3.08
0.84
2.80
3.90
4.35
aSource for current industry statistics:   Air Pollution Control  in the Primary
 Aluminum Tndustry. Singmaster and Breyer, July 23, 1973.
                                       75

-------
 requirements and operating costs of $106/ton  of capacity and  1.53
-------
It is concluded that the major impact of the proposed and new source
performance standard for aluminum smelters is to further hasten the
trend toward the increased utilization of the prebake process.  Future
growth in the domestic aluminum industry should not be significantly
impeded by the relatively small differential between the cost of emis-
sion control at the level of the proposed standard versus the average
costs currently being incurred in the industry.
It is in tHe evaluation of the economic impact upon the domestic aluminum
industry of control levels more strinqent than the proposed standard that
uncertainties arise.  For example, Table 19 shows that to achieve 97 percent
control  of emissions from the prebake process, the capital requirements for
emission control equipment amount to $119 per ton of installed capacity;
an increase of $69/ton over the current industry level of $50/ton of
capacity.  Annualized operating costs amount to 1.43£/lb of aluminum as
opposed to current  levels of 0.54
-------
     4.  Locate a conventional smelter in Canada.
     5.  Locate a conventional smelter elsewhere outside the U.S.
     6.  Do not build a smelter.  The U.'S. demand would have to be
     satisfied by foreign smelters.

Before discussing the feasibility of the alternatives listed above, it
is necessary to project the future domestic aluminum capacity require-
ments through 1980.  This is done in Table 20.  The basic assumptions
underlying Table 20 are as follows:
     1.  Growth in supplies averaging 7.5 percent per year between
     1971 and 1980,
     2.  Mill imports, secondary recovery, and primary imports at the
     same percentage level in 1980 as in 1972,
     3.  Stockpile sales of 77,000 tons/year in 1980, according to
     current 6SA disposal schedule, and
     4.  Industry operating ratio of 95 percent.

Given the above assumptions, then, domestic capacity must increase from
4.8 million tons in 1972 to 7.2 million tons in 1980, an increase of
2.4 million tons.  The bulk of the increase (1.8 million tons) will have
to be installed between 1977 and 1980 because a lead time of approxi-
mately 3 years is needed for construction of a smelter, and the industry
plans for 1977 are fairly well established.  As with any projection,
                                            P-                           3
however, future conditions could warrant revisions in the forecast.
Table 21 shows the current projection of future industry capacity by
                                     ;f              •
company through 1977.
                                  78

-------



CD
co
en
r~






^^




, CU
                                                                                       u  a>
                                                                                       ro  a.
                                                                                       a. a.
                                                                                       (OO
                                                                                       o
co
LU
Q.
O.



r-.
cn







ss




CO
£
0
1 —

r-.
,-j.
10




(O
CO
«*
A
LO
en
O



•* -

r-.
r^



t^.
^-
•—




CO
CO
CM
m
1—
CO
0
co




^
r--
«
WD
LO
CO
•—




LO
LO
A
r—
CM






O
0
r—


O
o
o




o
0
*^-
A
CO



CO O
•* 0
LO 1 —





                                                                                       S- O
                                                                                      ••-> -4->
                                                                                       (A U
                                                                                       3 a>
                                                                                      •O Q-
                                                                                       ECO
                                                          •o s-
                                                           a>  3
                                                           o tu
                                                           O) 4->
                                                          •r-jCO

                                                           £
                                                           a. «
                                                              IO
                                                          -a r*>
                                                           c en
                                                           (O r—
                                                               i
    o
    co
    en
O
o
a
 CJ
 LlJ
 •-3
 o
 CM
 a>
 -Q
 ca



c
o
1 —
1"^
cn
vo
0
CD
cn
•si-
t~-
^^
0
CM

LO
cn
o
Co

cn
o
co
o
cn
in
•—
OO
LO
CM
r-^
O
"
CD
t-~

O
CD
CD
LO
CO
O
l^«.
                                       o o
                                       en o
     cn cn


     -a   »

     « I?

     CM  O
     r***  (O
     en
                                                           s-
                                                           o

                                                               c

                                                           O  E


CM
cn
•






fc*



                                                            X  S-
                                                            0)
                                           o
                                           en
 U    O)

•o    co
 O   CO

r>    d}
                                      S-
                                      o
                                      O.
                                -S-   O
a.   co   a.   H-
a>

O          t/1
U          CU
a>   c/>    T-
a:   4->    i—
     s-     a.
>>  o     CL
s-   Q.    =>
CO   E    CO
T3   t-«
C         i—
Or—     CO
O   •—    4->
QJ   -i-     O
co  - s:    i—
                                                                    U)


                                                                    O
                                        •r- O
                                        0-r-
                                        (O -4->
                                        O. rO
                                        03 D;
                                        o
                                           CD
                                                                                       •o >
      c o  >>
      a> s-  C
      o><*-  to
       i      a.
      •=C O)  E
      a. s-  o
      LU ro o
                                                                    c/1  ra
                                                                    3  S-
                                                                    -o  cy
                                                                    c  a.
                                                                    v-HCD
 res   ••
 V)   UJ
 3   O
 o   ce.
 ^.   =3
 h-   O
•a     co
                                                   79

-------
                r~-  o
                CT>  CO
                r—  Q.
                    CO
          cor-..—   ooocnococococMr-.
          lOOir^cMoococoi—  r—   CM.—
                                                                                  vo
                                                                                  CO
ce:

CO
 to -I-
-»-> -t-s
 O-r-
l—-o
toi     i    i   r*.  o  o    i     101     ICM
r-   OOOOOCOCMOOLOOOin
I—    III       i—  r-    I     I   i—   I     I   IO
                                                                                                   o

                                                                                                   oS
                                                                                                   O)
          I    I    I   O   I    I     I   tf)    I     I
         ooocnooof^oo
                                                                                  LO
                                                                                  CO
                                                                                  CM
                                                                                   a.
                                                                                   CD
                                            (O   (O
CO
UJ
                              CD   o  o  oo   crv  o  o   o
                                                                I    LO
                                                                        o  CD   cr>
                                                                         I    I    CM
                                                                                                   O
                                                                                                   O)
                                                                                   OO
                   LO
                   1^
                   CT>
         ooooooooooooo
                                                                                                   to
                                                                                                   o>
                                                                                                   oo
    M
      •a

       ro
 O
 to
 ast-
 ro f*.
CJ cr>
         CDCDCDOCDCDOCDCDCD
                                                                          (O
                                                                          Q.
                                                                          to
                          I    I   '  I    I    I    I-  CD   I    I     I    I    - .  _
                         OOOOOOCMOCDOO   O   CM
                CM ••-
                f^ O
                Ctt rO
                t— Q.
                   tO
                   O
                         CDLOOr^I^CDOCDOCDLOCD
         IO  
                       COi—  ,i—  COOOOOCOCM
                       CMCM-CMi—  i—   i—  i—  i—
                                                                  oo
                                                                                                   to
                                                                           O)
CM

 CU
 (O
                                                                                   (U
                                                                                   >  -r-
                                   in   
                                               OO
                                           to
                                                                                           tO
                                                                                           tO
                                                                                           O)
                                                                                           U
                                                                                                  U_
                                                                                                      CM
                                                                                                      CM
                                                                                           •o
                                                                                           «C
                                                                                         (O
                                                                                                   CU
                                                                                                  oo
                                                                                  00
                                               80

-------
It should be kept In mind that the aluminum industry does not neces-
sarily have to increase domestic capacity after 1977 to 7.2 million tons.
It is possible that the industry would choose either to install the bulk of
this capacity overseas or else not to install it at all, thereby allowing
imports to supply the domestic aluminum needs.  The increase in capacity
of 1.8 million tons, after 1977 should be looked upon as the additional
capacity needed  to supply projected domestic aluminum needs in 1980.  Where
this capacity is installed,  and by whom, will be discussed as a part of
the previously introduced analyses of the six basic alternatives open to
the smelter owner.
•The first alternative open  to the prospective smelter owner facing manda-
tory outlays for control of fluoride emissions  is  to utilize, a smelting
process  that does not emit  fluorides.  However,  there are not at this
time any commercially available processes for the  production of aluminum
that do  not emit fluorides  even though there are, two processes in the develop-
mental  stage  that will  allegedly  produce aluminum  without fluoride emissions,.
One  process  is  the Alcoa  Smelting  Process and the  other is  the Tqth  Process.
 The  relative merits  and disadvantages  of these  two processes will not be
 discussed here;  suffice it to say that neither  of  these processes is
 expected to be commercially viable before  1980.  One advantage  of a  very
 stringent control  standard for fluorides,  of course,  is to  spur the
 development of a process that is  pollution-free.  Even  so,  the  two  processes
 described above would probably still  not be available before 1980.   The
 prospective smelter owner, therefore,  does not truly have the alternative
 of a non-polluting process for the production of aluminum and must consider
 other alternative courses of action.

-------
 Another alternative open to the prospective  smelter  owner  is  to  build
 a conventional  smelter in the United States  and  increase prices  by an
 amount  sufficient to cover  his  emission controls costs.  In order to more
 readily accomplish  this  objective, the smelter must be integrated into
 fabricating.  It would also  be  advantageous  if the proposed new smelter
 were to be built by a firm  that had considerable existing fabricating ca-
 pacity.  These conditions are necessary because a commodity market exists
 for aluminum ingot.  Differences in ingot between producers for a given grade
 of material do not  exist.  Any  one producer  cannot unilaterally increase
 prices  unless the other  producers follow.  It is doubtful that other
 producers, given that they  are  facing controls on their existing facilities
 that are less costly than the controls on a  new source smelter, would go
 along with a price increase.   So long as they were not operating at
 capacity , existing smelters would probably  hold prices down in the hope
 of generating additional volume.  As more and more new smelters were con-
 structed, however,  the upward pressure on primary  ingot prices could
 possibly be relieved by a price  increase.  The extent of the increase
would depend upon the level of  foreign prices and the degree of foreign
competition.  If the owner of the new smelter were integrated into the
fabricating market where some degree of product differentiation does exist,
then it might be possible to increase prices on a fabricated product or
products that would be enough to recover the additional  emission control
costs.  A-large amount of existing fabrication would  mean that a lower per-
unit increase would be needed in order to recover the emission control  costs.
It must be concluded, therefore, that a single new smelter  that did  not
control  a fabrication facility would be in  a difficult position with  regard
                                 82

-------
to passing on emission control costs when compared to a large,  integrated
smelter that is increasing capacity only marginally.   Of course,  even
the large, integrated smelter would have a limit on the amount  of addi-
tional costs that could be passed on.  That limit would vary from firm
to firm, and no attempt has been made at this time to determine its
magnitude.
Another alternative open to the prospective smelter"owner would be to
build a conventional smelter in the United States and absorb the addi-
tional emission control costs.  This alternative is again more  feasible
for a company that has a large amount of existing smelting capacity, as
long as this capacity is earning an acceptable rate of return.   A smelter
operator, particularly if he envisions increased prices in the  future for
his product, may temporarily accept a lower rate of return on his new
smelter in order to increase his capacity and his total profits.  Again,
if he has a large amount of existing capacity which is earning  an accept-
able return, then the dilution in earnings from the new smelter is rela-
tively less.  Table 22 summarizes the return on equity alternatives
that would apply to different hypothetical aluminum smelters.  The price
of 29.5<£/lb was chosen because it appeared to be the market price required
to generate new smelter construction.  Assuming a price of 29.5^/1b for
ingot, the company that adds 150,000 tons/year of prebake capacity to
1,000,000 tons/year of existing capacity would see after-tax return on
equity reduced to 9.8 percent from 10.0 percent.  The new smelter, however,
would have an after-tax return on equity of only 8.4 percent.  It is doubt-
ful that the reduction in return on equity from 10.0 to 9.8 percent would
deter the existing smelter owner from adding some additional capacity.
                                   83

-------
                Table 22.   SAMPLE RETURN ON EQUITY CALCULATIONS
Return on Equity @ 29. 5<£/l b:

Total Capacity (Tons)
Equity Capital Before
Additional Control d
Additional Control Capital
(Prebake Level #2)
Total Capital - $ (Equity)
- <£/lb Capacity
Operating Cost Before
Additional Control (<£/lb)e
Additional Control Cost
(Prebake Level #2)
Total Cost (<£/lb)
Net Before Tax Revenue @ 29.5 <£/lb
Net After Tax Revenue (50% Rate) (<£/lb)
Return on Equity Capital
CASE Ia

1,000,000
$750,000,000
-0-
$750,000,000
37.50
22.00
-0-
22.00
7.50
3.75
10.0%
CASE II b

150,000
$112,500,000
5,175,000
$117,675,000
39.23
22.00
0.89
22.89
6.61
3.30
8.4%
CASE II Ic

1,150,000
$862,500,000
5,175,000
$867,675,000
37.73
22.00
0.12
22.12
7.38
3.69
9.8%
 Case I:  Smelter not required to meet new source performance standard; incurs
          only existing industry average emission control costs.

 Case II:  Smelter meets Prebake Level #2 control requirements; represents a
           new entrant to market.

f*
 Case III:  Sum of Case I and Case II; represents company with exi'sting capacity
            that builds a new smelter.


 Assumes $1500/ton total capital  for smelter, bauxite, and alumina facilities;
 50% equity capital.


eEPA assumption.


 It would be possible for the new market entrant to achieve a return on equity
 of 10% if it could lower its equity portion of the total capital  requirement
 to 42% instead of 50%.
                                         84

-------
There is a great deal of doubt, however, that a return on equity of 8.4
percent would encourage a new entrant into the primary aluminum market.
The historical average return on equity for three major producers has
only averaged 7.6 percent over the past 7 years (refer to Table 23),
but this is primarily due to the exceptionally low return on equity
generated in 1971 and 1972.  Excluding these 2 years, the average
return on equity increases from 7.6 to 9.4 percent.
The following table  is obtained from Table 22 by substituting the incre-
mental capital and operating costs for the proposed standard and Control
Level #3 for the costs of Control Level #2:
                                Case  I
Case II
Case III
10.0%
10.0%
10.0%
9.7%
8.4%
7.5%
10.0%
9.8%
9.7%
    Return on Equity
   Capital @ 29.5«£/lb
   1)  Proposed Standard
   2)  Control Level #2
   3)  Control Level #3
It can only be concluded that a single new source smelter would probably
not enter the primary aluminum market if faced with a level of control
more stringent than the proposed standard.  A large, integrated smelter,
however, would have much less difficulty meeting any standard shown above,
although the exact  level that could be met would depend entirely upon the
costs structure and size of the individual firm and the amount of incre-
mental capacity added.  At the cost level of the proposed standard, however,
the  difference in return on equity capital between the existing firm and
the  entrant  is minor.
                                 85

-------
    Table 23.  HISTORICAL RETURN ON EQUITY IN THE ALUMINUM INDUSTRY
                         (THREE MAJOR PRODUCERS)
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
Average
Net Income
After Taxes
$229.3
213.6 -•
187.3
247.1
193.2
78.3
118.1
$181.0
MJuai % Return
Stockholder Equity On Equity
$1998.1
2143.8
2245.5
2447.9
2575.9
2588.0
2652.4
$2378.8
11.5
10.0
8.3
10.1
7.5
3.0
4.5
7.6
 In millions of dollars

SOURCE:  Moody's Industrial Manual (1973)
                                     86

-------
    Another alternative that could be pursued by the prospective new
source smelter owner would be to build a smelter in Canada.   A large
number of domestic smelters are now located in the Pacific Northwest,
primarily because of the relatively low power costs available there.  If
the cost structure of a new source smelter in the Pacific Northwest is
compared to a similar-si zed smelter in British Columbia,  then it must  be
concluded that the only difference in cost structure between the domestic
smelter and the Canadian smelter, both of which are selling their output
in the United States, would be the current H/lb import duty on aluminum
ingot.  Costs for power, alumina, other raw materials, labor and over-
head, and capital-related charges should be approximately the same. This
means that in the United States costs would have to increase by approxi-
mately U/lb in order to make location of the smelter in Canada a viable
alternative.  If the new source smelter is assumed to be of the prebake
variety, then the following table can be constructed:
                        Cost Differential
                        U. S. vs. Canada
1.
2.
 Canadian Control Level
Canadian standard equi-
valent to current domes-
tic control level
    Canadian standards equi
    valent to level of pro-
    posed standard for
    prebake (0.63<£/lb)
                                Prebake
                             Proposed Std
                              (0.63^/lb)
                               0.09<£/lb
                            -0-
 Prebake
 Level  #2
(1.43(£/lb)
 0.89<£/lb
                                                         Prebake
                                                         Level #3
                                                        (2.18<£/1b)
                                   87

-------
    At a level of control less stringent than Control  Level  #3,  probably
no shifting of domestic smelter capacity to Canada will  be observed
because the pollution cost differential between the United States and
Canada is less then l<£/lb of aluminum.  At Control Level #3, however,
the incentive to shift domestic smelting capacity to Canada  is significant.

    The choice of a future site for a primary aluminum smelter is not
necessarily only between the United States and Canada.  Other countries
present attractive alternatives when total smelting cost is  being
considered.  The following is an excerpt from a report by
Arthur D. Little, Inc., on the aluminum industry.  Although  some of
the numbers used in this report may be somewhat dated by now, the
following comments are still pertinent:

    "Today an international company has four principal choices of
location:
    .  The United States, which has a major nearby market, but depends
       upon premium-priced power, imported alumina, and limited
       government subsidies.
    .  Continental Europe, where power is even more expensive, but
       which offers good markets and significant government subsidies.
    .  Countries with cheap power and government loans;  but no markets
       and high infrastructure costs (e.g., in Africa or the Middle
       East).
    .  Australia, with abundant raw material, but not particularly
       cheap power, high infrastructure costs, and distant markets.
                                                                   ,,15
                                   88

-------
    The report goes on to state:   "Power costs show the widest varia-
tion among areas, and also from one location to another within each
area.  The Middle East's vast supplies of oil and gas will  probably
keep it in the lowest cost areas although there are a small number of
hydro sites elsewhere that can also produce power for 2.5 mills.   Europe
is generally the highest cost area. .  . .  Smelters close to raw
materials include significant freight and tariff costs on ingot,  which
offset savings on shipping alumina, while the situation is reversed
for  smelters located near large markets. .  .  .  The theoretically
lower wage rates of developing areas have usually been offset by the
need to pay more for skilled personnel, though recent contract settle-
ments may well put total U.S. labor costs  above any others.  . .  .
Capital charges  are a very significant element of smelter costs.  .  .  .
As  pollution  laws are tightened, capital costs in the United  States and
                              •jq-
Europe may rise  even  higher."10
     The question of smelter  location  is  thus rather  complex and depends
upon many factors  other than pollution control costs.   It  is  safe  to
say that  any  domestic emission  control regulation  that  requires an
expense  greater  than  what would  be experienced in  another  country is
an  incentive  for the  smelter owner to locate his facility  in  that other
country.   An  exact quantification  of  the impact of the  proposed emission
 standard, relative to power costs, raw material  costs,  and all other
 location-related factors, is not possible at this  time.  There is
 currently a trend for companies to consider locating smelters outside
                                 89

-------
the United States.  Alcoa, for example, has partial  ownership  of
smelters in Mexico, Australia, Brazil, and England.   Reynolds  Metals
has partial ownership of smelters in Canada, Venezuela,  and  England.
Kaiser Aluminum has partial ownership of smelters in Australia and  Ghana.
It is not expected that an acceleration of this trend toward locating
smelters outside the United States would be caused by the proposed
standard for fluoride emissions from new source smelters, since there
is so little cost difference between current industry practice and  the
proposed standard.  More stringent control levels, however,  may well
accelerate the trend toward location of smelting capacity overseas.
    The last alternative that the prospective smelter owner  might
choose is not to build a smelter at the present time.  This  would
mean that domestic aluminum needs would have to be supplied  by imports.
Table 20 shows that total primary ingot supplies in 1980, including
stockpile sales, will be 7,990,000 tons.  If we assume that  stockpile
sales remain at 77,000 tons and that the 1977 capacity of 5,436,000
tons is not increased by 1980 and is utilized at 100 percent of
capacity, then imports must increase from 1,100,000 tons to  2,477,000
tons.  This additional amount of imports, valued at 25
-------
with the foreign capacity increases.  This means that the United
States would probably not be able to depend upon foreign imports to
such an extensive degree.  This situation of increased demand relative
to supply would result in increased prices for aluminum.  These increases
would mean that producers could then afford the emission control equip-
ment and still make an acceptable profit.  Presented below  is a summary
of the  prices needed to  generate a  return of 10 percent on  equity  to
the smelter  owner.   (A return  of 10 percent on equity  is assumed to be
the cut-off  point in the decision to build a new  smelter.)
                                Ingot Price Required to Yield 10%
                               Return on Equity  (Prebake Process!5
         Case
 I-Existing capacity of
   1,000,000 tons/year
 II-New smelter with
    capacity of 150,000
    tons/year
Proposed
Standard
29.5<£/lb
29.7<£/lb
                                            control
                                            Level  n
                                            29.5<£/lb

                                            30.
Control
Level #3
29.5<£/lb
                                             29.7^/lb
                                29.8<£/lb
Ill-Combination consist-   29.5<£/lb
    ing of 1,000,000 tons/
    year of existing
    capacity plus 150,000
    tons/year of new
    capacity
aBased on data presented in Table 22.
     For adding smelting capacity the firm with existing
capacity  subject to  lower emission control costs would  have an advan-
tage over a brand-new market  entrant.  At  the  level of  the proposed
standard, very little difference exists  between the brand-new smelter
and the  existing smelter with additional  capacity, but  the differences
                                   91

-------
become appreciable at Control Level #2 and Control Level #3.  At Control
Level #2 the brand-new smelter needs a price of 30.7<£/lb to realize a
price of 31.8<£/lb vs. 29.8<£/lb for the smelter adding 15 percent
additional capacity.  Since a price of only 29.5<£/lb is required for
a 10 percent return on equity for a smelter that only has to meet current
industry control costs, then it is seen that the impact of the various
control levels on the large firm with existing capacity is minimal.
It must be concluded that since the proposed standard will require
approximately the same break-even price for either the new smelter or
the smelter with incremental capacity, then no barriers to new market
entrants exist.  At more stringent control levels, however, new entrants
would definitely tend to be excluded.

    One point that recurs throughout the above analysis is that the
small firm is generally at a disadvantage when competing with a large,
established firm when control levels more stringent than the proposed
standard are considered.  At the cost level of the proposed standard,
essentially no difference exists between the new entrant and the large,
established producers.  This conclusion hinges upon the assumption that
the existing smelters will not be required to adopt controls more
costly than what are currently being incurred to meet most existing state
standards.  The advantage enjoyed by large, established firms would
diminish considerably if they were forced to incur a higher level of
costs than they are currently experiencing.  This analysis has assumed
that state regulations will require a cost outlay essentially equivalent
to what the industry is currently spending.  The impacts discussed
                               92

-------
above would have to be modified, of course,  if state standards were
to become more stringent, but the basic conclusions would tend to
remain unchanged.
    In summary, the analysis of the impact of alternative levels of
emission control upon the domestic primary aluminum industry leads
to the following conclusions:
    1.  Emission controls at a level of stringency equal to or
    greater than the proposed standards will accelerate the current
    industry trend toward the utilization of only the prebake process
    at new source aluminum smelters;      ,

    2.  Emission controls at a level of stringency equal to the
    proposed standard will have no .adverse impact upon future growth
    in the domestic aluminum industry;            .     ,
    3.  Emission controls that are more stringent than the proposed
    standard will tend to discriminate against the small market entrant
    that  is without existing capacity  in  favor of the large,  estab-
    lished, integrated producer;
    4.   Emission controls that are more stringent than the proposed
    standard will  tend to encourage  a  greater proportion of imports
    of  primary ingot  than would  normally  be  the  case;
     5.   Emission controls more  stringent  than the  proposed standard
    would encourage higher  domestic  prices  for primary  aluminum
     ingot and  fabricated products than would normally  be the  case.
                              93

-------
H.  Summary

    During initial plant surveys, source measurements, and a later
visit to Norway,   seven primary aluminum reduction plants were observed
to have visible emissions of about 10 percent opacity or less; four which
had dry control systems had no visible emissions.

    One domestic carbon anode bake plant had visible emissions of less
than 20 percent opacity.  Thirty hours of recorded visible emissions
taken by EPA at another domestic plant showed visible emissions of
about 10 percent.  The Norwegian anode bake plant had visible emissions
of about 10 percent.

    The proposed standard is based on the following:

    1.   Primary emissions which averaged less than 0.5 lb TF/TAP were
        achieved on four different plants in measurements performed
        by EPA.

    2.   One foreign plant reports  primary emissions of less  than 0.5
        Ib TF/TAP.   (Although  another foreign plant reports  primary
        emissions at 0.74 Ib TF/TAP,  its total  fluoride emissions over
        18 months of operation averaged  1.92 TF/TAP,  below the  proposed
        standard.10)

    3.   Three  of the  six tests  of  secondary  systems  by EPA showed
        average emissions  of less  than 1.25  TF/TAP,  including the two
        plants  with elaborate  sampling and flow measurement devices.
                              94

-------
4.  Based on an assumed fluoride control efficiency of only 90
                      T?
    percent (compared to demonstrated 99.5 from primary control
    systems), emissions from carbon bake plants can be controlled
    to below 0.20 Tb TF/TCAP (0.10 Ib TF per ton of aluminum
    equivalent).

5.  Data have been obtained from plants in which the collection
    systems were upgraded and the control systems retrofitted to an
    existing plant.  New plants, engineered from inception with
    environmental considerations, should easily be able to achieve
    the recommended standard of performance.

6.  The economic impact upon the domestic primary aluminum industry
    of the  proposed standards of performance is not considered to
    be adverse.  Even though Soderberg  process smelters will probably
    not be  built in the future due to the cost of achieving the pro-
    posed standards, the prebake process will still be a viable
    alternative.
 7.  The economic impact upon the domestic primary aluminum industry
    and the general public  would be  adverse  if standards of per-
    formance more  stringent than the proposed standards were to
    be  imposed upon  the  industry.  The  negative economic factors
     include the increased  amount of  imports  of primary aluminum,
     higher prices  for  both  ingot and fabricated materials  than would
     normally be the  case,  and  increased difficulty  of market entry or
     capacity addition  for  the  small  smelter  owner  as  opposed to  the
     large, integrated  smelter  owner.
                           95

-------
    The proposed standard of 2.0 Ib TF/TAP is supported by measure-
ment of emissions from potrooms by EPA on Plants A, B, C, and D as
shown in Figures 11 and 12.  Based on a conservative estimate of 90
percent efficiency, control technology for anode bake plants is
available to achieve 0.20 Ib TF/TCAP.  The standard will require in-
stallation and proper maintenance of equipment representative of the
best technology which has been demonstrated for the industry.  In the
Administrator's judgment, the achieveability and reasonableness of
the proposed standards has been adequately demonstrated.
                                96

-------
                               REFERENCES
1.  Singmaster & Breyer, Air Pollution Control  in the  Aluminum  Industry,
    Contract No. CPA 70-21, Environmental Protection Agency,  July  23,  1973.

2.  Data submitted to EPA by primary aluminum companies.
3.  Primary Aluminum Industry (Draft Cooy).   Contract  No.  CPA 70-142,  Task
    Order No. 2, Environmental Protection Agency.
4.  Oelschlarger, W., "Determination of Fluoride Standards for  Vegetation
    and Animals," Fluoride (Journal of International Society for Fluoride
    Research), Vol. 5, No. 3, July 1972, p.  111.
5.  Antonelli, Dr. Giuseppe, "Effects of Fluorine in the Regions Close to
    Industries That Produce It . . .," (Rass. Trim. Odant., Vol. 35,  No. 2,
    April-June 1954, pp. 95-122 (Italian-English translation obtained from
    EPA Air  Pollution Technical Information Center).
6.  "National Emission Standards Study," Senate Document No. 91-63,
    U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D. C., 1971.
7.  Fluorides. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D. C., 1971.
8.  Stern, Arthur  C., Air  Pollution, Second Edition, Volume 2.
9.  Letter from  the  State  of  Oregon Department  of Environmental Quality,
    dated August 7,  1973.
10.   Data submitted  to  EPA by European primary  aluminum producers.
11.   Report  on  trip  to  Norway, Roger  0.  Pfaff,  EPA, August 22-25, 1972.
                                97

-------
12.  Bellack, E. and P. J.  Schoubue,. "Rapid Photometric Determination  of
     Fluorides in Water."'  Analytical  Chemistry,  30,  pp.  2032-2034,  1958.

13.  Aluminum Industry Outlook to 1980,  Arthur D.  Little, Inc.,  August 1971
                                  98

-------
                                   TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                            (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
  EPA-450/2-74-020a
                                                            3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
  BACKGROUND  INFORMATION FOR  STANDARDS OF PERFORMANCE:
  Primary Aluminum Plants, Volume 1, PROPOSED STANDARDS
                                                            5. REPORT DATE
                                                              October 1974
                                                            6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
                                                            8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS

  U.S. Environmental  Protection  Agency
  Office of Air  Quality Planning and Standards
  Research  Triangle Park, N.C.   27711
                                                            10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
                                                            11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
                                                            13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                                                            14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
  This volume  is  the first of a  series on standards  of performance  for primary
  aluminum plants.   This volume  presents the proposed standards and the rationale
  for the degree  of control selected.   The volume  also discusses  the analytical
  methods for  sampling emissions and the environmental and economic impact of the
  standards.
17.
                                KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                              b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                                                                          C.  COSATI Field/Group
  Air pollution
  Pollution control
  Performance standards
  Primary Aluminum  Plants
                                                Air pollution  control
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT

  Unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)'
  Unclassified
                                                                          21 . NO. OF PAG
                                                                                     ES

                                                                                     12
                                               20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
                                                 Unclassified
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
                                             99

-------

-------