-------
STEP 3: EVALUATING EMISSIONS CHANGES
Transportation demand modeling (or sketch planning analyses) of TCMs will yield
expected changes in temporally (i.e., hourly or peak/off-peak) and spatially disaggre-
gated traffic volumes and speeds. For emissions analyses, one of the most important
transportation demand outputs are a trip table estimating the number of trips origi-
nating and ending in each traffic analysis zone (TAZ) in the urban area, and a coded
highway network with traffic volume and average speed estimates for each highway
segment in the region's transportation system. Other EPA guidance documents
address mobile source emissions inventory preparation (see documents listed under
"Technical Analyses" in Appendix B). This discussion highlights important emissions
analysis steps, identifies tools to complete these analyses, and references informa-
tion to use for additional guidance.
Emissions Analyses: Overview of the Process
Steps to complete the emissions analyses differ depending upon whether the analyses
are to forecast emissions at the regional or intersection ("hot spot") scale. At the
regional scale, emissions analyses are driven by the output from transportation
demand estimates (and resulting spatial and temporal traffic volume and speed esti-
mates), emissions factors for each vehicle, and the composite emissions rates for a
given year's vehicle fleet. Typical approaches used to evaluate mobile source emis-
sions for SIP submittals include several steps such as (1) definition of a road network
for a given year; (2) network subdivision into traffic analysis zones (TAZs); (3) trans-
portation demand model forecasts of inter- and intrazonal trips; (4) assignment of
trips to links in the network; (5) validation of model results (travel patterns verified
against traffic counts and known link capacities); (6) transportation demand model
output of vehicle trips on each link ("loadings"); and (7) use of emissions model(s) to
calculate emissions by link (stabilized, running emissions from warmed-up vehicles;
plus trip end emissions including cold and hot starts and hot soak) (Perardi et al.,
1979). Figure 4-5 illustrates the steps necessary to complete a regional analysis.
Intersection emissions analyses integrate intersection traffic model outputs with
data on intersection geometry, meteorology, background carbon monoxide levels, and
other factors to estimate "hot spot" emissions. Some tools combine intersection
traffic modeling and emissions estimation. Figure 4-6 illustrates the intersection
analysis process.
EPA recently updated its mobile source emissions inventory preparation guidance
(EPA, 1989b), and the agency has published its emissions inventory requirements for
post-1987 carbon monoxide and ozone state implementation plans (see Appendix B).
(Readers are encouraged to contact their regional EPA office to determine the latest
guidance available.) The major steps required to complete mobile source emissions
inventories included in the updated inventory preparation guidance are as follows:
89058r2
-------
a
§-
.1
I
§?
f-
i
126
-------
i.
Intersection
Modeling
2.
Data Collection
3.
Hot Spot
CO Modeling
4.
Hot Spot
Model Output
Intersection
model
hi
Intersection
traffic data
by hour
Intersection
geometry
Hot spot
emissions/air
quality modeling
Hot spot
carbon monoxide
concentrations
FIGURE 4-6. Sample mobile source hot spot analysis process for CO: intersection traffic, emissions, and air
quality analyses.
ppp/69058
127
-------
1 Include local traffic emissions, as well as major highway emissions, in the
highway Chicle emissions inventory; include such off-highway vehicles as
aifcraft, railroads, vessels, industrial equipment, construction equipment,
and other sources unique to an area (e.g., snowmobiles); Stance to
develop the off-highway inventory is contained in EPA U95U.
2. Derive highway emissions by multiplying VMT by MOBILE* emission fac-
tors;
3. Obtain MOBILE* emissions factors by running the MOBILE* model;
4. Derive VMT (procedures in EPA, 1989b and EPA, 1988c) using VMT base
year of 1987 or 1988 and transportation model;
5 Identify transportation model used, transportation agency that developed
model! travel information used to estimate inventory, and contact (name
and phone number) at the transportation agency;
6 ComclY with various other requirements pertaining to year run was gener-
ated, data used to -grow" VMT to 1987-1988, road classifications, etc. (see
EPA, 1988d and e).
Tools to Conduct Regional Emissions Analyses
Development of Emissions Factors
For all non-California applications, MOBILE* is the EPA-required tool to be used to
e«imate^nobUe source emissions factors. MOBILE* estimates carbon monoxide
?rr?T hvdr^carbon (HC), and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions factors for all motor
(£*££^*^<£* range'of vehicle operating conditions. EPA has prepared
Ruidance^ MOBILE* and on procedures for mobile source emissions inventory
preparation (see EPA, 1989a; EPA, 1989b).
ia EMFAC (as of this date EMFAC-7E is latest available) should be used
^rctor model. Unlike MOBILE*, EMFAC does not have a w* range
values built into the program, and users must supply substantial data to
!M^» °* ^FAC is available from the California Air Resources
Board (CARB, 1990).
PrPT-^ft Mnhiig Source Emissions as Air
lom«) or tools «hat provide emissions at the
or
128
-------
regional scale. Air quality model requirements dictate the input format (e.g., EKMA
ozone modeling usually relies on county emissions data; Urban Airshed Model ozone
and CO modeling relies on gridded emissions data. The modeling section discusses
this topic in greater detail).
Regional or County-Level Inventories. For non-California applications, MOBILE*
will estimate motor vehicle emission factors for inputs ranging from national
average defaults to very city-specific. Parameters that can be specified include
local Reid vapor pressure (RVP), minimum and maximum temperatures, I&M pro-
grams, vehicle type and age distributions, and fractions of hot and cold starts. There
are no standard programs to merge MOBILE* emission factors with traffic activity
data (gridded or not) to produce motor vehicle emission inventories.
In California, EMFAC emissions factors are linked to an emissions model called
BURDEN to provide county-level mobile source emissions inventories. Technical
assistance to use BURDEN is available from the California Air Resources Board.*
Gridded Inventories. In California, EMFAC emissions factors and California
Department of Transportation roadway data are linked to the Direct Travel Impact
Model (DTIM) to produce gridded emissions inventories. Information on DTIM is pro-
vided in Seitz and Baishiki (1988). No one tool has emerged as the standard gridding
device for non-California applications; various agencies have developed a number of
tools to facilitate emissions gridding. In addition to DTIM,* TRFCONV and IMPACT
can be used (as described below).
TRFCONV was originally developed by the Arizona Department of Health Services to
estimate on-road mobile source emissions for the Phoenix metropolitan area, based
on UTPS outputs. The model produces gridded mobile source emissions for use with
the Urban Airshed Model and has been generalized for applications to other areas. It
has the ability to (1) treat traffic on a link-by-link basis, allowing detailed spatial
resolution of emissions, (2) address diurnal traffic volume patterns, allowing tem-
poral resolution of emissions, and (3) remain sensitive to the effects of volume and
capacity on vehicle speed (and hence emissions factors) (Ireson and Dudik, 1987).
* Contact the Projects, Gridding, and Motor Vehicle Section of the Emission
Inventory Branch, Technical Support Division, California Air Resources Board,
Sacramento, California (Wade, 1989).
* The California Department of Transportation has plans to modify DTIM for use
with UTPS-formatted data (Seitz, 1989).
-------
WPACif, developed by the
emissions model that uses a loaded highway
emissions factors to estimate
and NO* emissions on a gndded
include (I) vehicle hours ^
per minute or grams per
un ^ cornputes HC, CO,
ill) scale. Model outputs
HC, CO, and NOx in
, (2) start-up emis-
soak emission
by TAZ or grid square (Dresser and Bell,
. . t "' ........ 'I . ;.. ..... ' ; ' ;'•
T«* to Conduct bisection Emissi^ A-aiy^s for Ho, Spo, Air ijuaUty ModeUng
MOBILE* is ft. EPA-re^ired
130
I? 3
-------
STEP 4: EVALUATING AIR QUALITY CHANGES
EPA requires states to use EPA-approved models to evaluate air quality control
plans. For ozone, states can use either the Empirical Kinetics Modeling Approach
(EKMA) or the Urban Airshed Model (UAM) although use of the UAM is the preferred
approach. Urban-scale CO problems can be addressed by using the UAM or RAM
model; "hot spot" CO problems can be addressed by using roadway dispersion models
approved by EPA (CALINE3 is preferred) (EPA, 19'86a). The focus of this discussion
is to help analysts decide which ozone air quality model is most appropriate for their
application—deciding whether to choose EKMA or UAM will likely be the most diffi-
cult of the tool selection tasks; this part of the guidance highlights the key strengths
and weaknesses of EKMA and the UAM for ozone modeling and TCM analyses. First,
a short discussion of CO models is given.
CARBON MONOXIDE ANALYSES
"Hot Spot" Carbon Monoxide Analyses
EPA identifies two screening approaches to determine problem hot spot carbon
monoxide areas (see EPA, 1986a). Once problem areas have been identified, the EPA
recommends CALINE3 (the California Line Source Model) as the preferred model for
hot spot or intersection air quality analyses. Because CALINE3 is a Gaussian model
(i.e., it models inert pollutants such as CO) applicable to highway segments, it is use-
ful for analyzing TCMs such as high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes. A user's manual
is available (Benson, 1979). "Hot spot" problems are likely to involve major inter-
sections or interchanges that are operating at or above nominal vehicle-handling
capacity during peak traffic hours. When vehicle queues are too long to "clear" the
intersection during each traffic light cycle, emissions from idling and acceleration
become an increasingly significant factor in near-field concentrations. It is particu-
larly important that overly simplistic modeling approaches be avoided, since CO
emission rates (in grams per mile per vehicle) increase dramatically as speeds drop,
especially below 15 miles per hour. EPA is updating its hot spot CO guidance; con-
sult with EPA regional office staff for the most current CO guidance.
Urban-Scale Carbon Monoxide Analyses
The UAM and RAM models are acceptable for urban-scale CO analyses (EPA,
1987a). Guidance on RAM is available from the National Technical Information Ser-
vice ("User's Guide for RAM—Second Edition,1* 1987). Guidance on UAM is listed in
Appendix B.
89058r2
-------
with the conSSt increases in pW-mile emissions due to decreasing speeds).
Session calculations based on a single composite emission factor and
regional VMT are not appropriate for such situations.
OZONE ANALYSES
modeling requirements.)
.
have limited effects on an urban area's ozone levels.
'the Empirical kinetics Modeling Approach (EKMA)
Overview
olonl %£££& '^ported along an assumed straightiine trajectory. The
atos8r2 •» 132
-------
trajectory is defined so that the box begins to move at 8:00 a.m. (local time) and
travels over the city or air basin to arrive at the location and time of the observed
maximum ozone concentration.
Technical Discussion
EKMA is based on a Lagrangian (moving air parcel) box model (the computer code
associated with EKMA is known as the "Ozone Isopleth Plotting with Optional Mech-
anisms 4," or OZIPM4)., The Lagrangian box contains initial nonmethane hydrocarbon
(NMOC), NO , and CO concentrations corresponding to 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. measure-
ments. EKMA can also consider transport of precursors before 8:00 a.m. and precur-
sors transported aloft. As the box moves over a city, fresh volatile organic corn-
pounds (VOCs), NOX, and CO are emitted into the box; the concentrations are diluted
due to mixing height rise; and entrapment of precursors aloft ^curs. Chermcal
reactions occur with the resulting concentration mix (the current chemical mechan-
ism in OZIPM4 is the "Carbon Bond IV" chemical mechanism).
Region-wide (county, MSA, CMSA) average VOC, NOX, and carbon monoxide (CO)
emissions are used in the EKMA calculations. Morning minimum (at least 250
meters) and afternoon maximum mixing heights are required as input, with hourly
variations provided through interpolation. Some consideration is given to mcludmg
SonJ f'rom large (over 5 percent of the inventory) NOX point sources during the
morning hours when the plume rise may exceed the mixing height. There is no con
s^deratfon of the emissions' spatial (both horizontal and vertical) vanabikty wito
tne resolution of a county, MSA, or CMSA. EPA guidelines recommend that VOC
emissions be allocated into Carbon Bond IV (CB-IV) species by using a set of default
speciation prof Ues (EPA, 1987b), although the actual speciation (reactivity) of the
VOC emissions can be input into EKMA.
EKMA Application Guidance
The EPA has tentatively defined a set of procedures for applying EKMA for a post-
1987 SIP SPA, 1987b). Days for simulation are selected by analyzing daily maximum
ozone^concen^ations at all ozone monitors in the vicinity of the urban area. Days
« on which the five highest daily maximum ozone concentrations at
within or downwind of the urban area and are not overly influenced
or ozone precursors from outside of the urban area m ques-
tion.
6905Br2 if 133
-------
The Urban Airshed Model (UAM)
Overview
The Urban Airshed Model (UAM) is a three-dimensional grid model ^signed ° calcu
late the concentrations of both inert and chemically reactive pollutants by simula-
S he vLTous physical and chemical processes that take place in the atmosphere.
The UAM is based on the atmospheric diffusion, or species continuity equation, which
represents a mass balance in which each of the relevant emissions, transport, cherni-
Sfreadtion and removal processes is expressed in mathematical terms. Based on
SSK^STmotW is generally employed to simulate a 24-hr to 72-hr period
during which episodic meteorological conditions persist.
Because the model can resolve both spatial and temporal features of the concentra-
suited to analysis of spatially and/or temporally Differentiated
w sue
strategies and their effect on air quality in various parts of the model-
analysis is accomplished by first replicating a historical orae epi-
sode Sel inputs are prepared with observed meteorological, emission, and air-
mmHtv data Sr a particular day or days. The model is then evaluated by using
data
Evaluation °£ the
.
teo episode can be used as the basis for future , a r ^quality •predic-
ons Onoetne model inputs have been evaluated and the model has been deter-
d t?SrfornTwiSin prescribed levels, the emissions inventory can be modified
^li^^^e emission Sc^lOS. The model simulation is then re-run
Si ?he fo'e^st emissions, producing hourly pollutant concentration patterns that
would be likely to occur under similar future meteorological conditions.
Technical Discussion
of a modeling episode is usually based on the occurrence of an observed
^^
:ly gridded inputs are prepared for the day(3) to quesuon, model
evaluations, and controi strategy analyses follow.
UAM Application Guidance
-gS^^^
Evaluating Air Quality effects). Inputs are usuaUy prepared by
134
'£,
-------
using objective techniques that are mutually agreed upon with approval from the
EPA. It has become standard practice in applications of the UAM to compile all of
the model application methodologies in a modeling protocol document. This
document sets forth the procedures to be followed in an application of the UAM for
the following: (1) modeling domain selection, (2) episode selection, (3) model input
preparation, W model performance evaluation, and (5) model application. The
protocol document is reviewed and approved by all participants before the bulk of
the work is initiated.
Comparison of EKMA and UAM Model Formulations
The primary differences between EKMA (OZIPM4) and UAM stem from the trajec-
tory nature of EKMA versus the grid nature of the UAM. The EKMA/OZIPM4 simu-
lates the trajectory of a single air parcel from the urban core to the location of the
observed maximum daily ozone concentration. Emissions are assumed to be instan-
taneously mixed within the Lagrangian box, winds are assumed to be uniform, and
there is no treatment of diffusion. As the mixing height rises, specified concentra-
tions are entrained (i.e., diluted) from aloft. EKMA attempts to replicate the obser-
ved maximum daily ozone concentration in terms of initial conditions, emissions,
chemistry, and dilution. EKMA predicts the maximum daily ozone concentration,
and the NMOC emissions reduction required to reduce the maximum daily ozone con-
centration to the ozone NAAQS of 0.12 ppm. EKMA also predicts the effects on
maximum ozone of reducing NMOC and/or NOX by specified amounts.
In contrast, the UAM simulates a number of grid cells that make up a three-dimen-
sional volume encompassing the entire urban area rather than one air parcel. Unlike
EKMA, variations in wind fields, wind shear, vertical transport, and diffusion, as well
as variations in emissions distributions and emissions reactivity, are explicitly
treated. Elevated point source emissions are injected into the upper layers of the
UAM and entrained into the lower layers as the mixing height rises. The UAM calcu-
lates hourly ozone and ozone precursor concentrations across the entire urban area.
To determine the amount of VOC emissions reduction required to achieve the ozone
NAAQS, a series of UAM simulations must be made with different emissions inven-
tories. Because of the spatial and temporal resolution of the UAM, the model may
provide a number of VOC reduction estimates to meet the standards that can be
evaluated with a cost-benefit analysis.
EKMA estimates the VOC control required to achieve the ozone NAAQS, whereas
the UAM predicts the ozone concentrations from a given emissions scenario. The
UAM replicates atmospheric processes better and is technically superior to EKMA;
however, it is also more costly and complex to use.
890S8r2
-------
Use of EKMA in Preparing a SIP
EKMA Inputs are prepared for the modeling day(s) according to the guidelines (EPA,
1987b), and the model is exercised to calculate a maximum daily ozone concentra-
tion If the EKMA-predicted maximum daily ozone concentration is witmn 30 per-
t of the observed value, then the EKMA inputs are considered to be adequate for
ulating control requirements. If the predicted maximum daily ozone concentra-
deviates more than 30 percent from the observed ozone, then the inputs are
,wed and Aeries of adjustments are made according to the procedures given in
the guidelines.
Once EKMA inputs are deemed to be adequate, the VOC emissions control requjre-
mem canthen be calculated. This calculated emissions control requirement is based
on the observed maximum daily ozone concentrations, not the predicted value
EKMA ob^HTthis emissions control requirement by adjusting the VOCand NO
emissions (but not VOC-to-NOx emission ratio) up or down until the predicted maxi-
m^mTzTne concentration matches the observed value. Then EKMA performs a
*ertes of simulations lowering the VOC emission rates until the predicted maximum
daily ozone concentration is less than the ozone NAAQS. The resultant output is the
percent reduction of VOC emissions required to meet attainment of the ozone
NAAQS.
Use of UAM in Preparing a SB?
Three main tasks must be completed to apply the UAM for SIP developments model
^ut preparation, performance evaluation, and model application for future year
scenarios.
j ,, ! ," • , '
Input Preparation
Hourly, gridded inputs of emissions, meteorology, and air quality data for the high
ozone 4vent-day(s) being modeled include more than a dozen variables. Wind mea-
°Z°ne eV krterpolated or used as input into a wind model to create thr«e-dimen-
wind fields. Mixing heights are estimated from data obtained at upper-
n sites (and from any other special observations), and inter-
oolated onto the modeling grid at hourly intervals. Hourly temperatures are input
ft ^th*rfd ceil? Water vapor concentrations and photolysis rates are assumed to
hTcorSa?^acroithr^tirem^eling domain. Initial and boundary concentration
be constant aero _ ^ day.specific measurements and historical observations of
•entrations in and around urban areas. The UAM also requires both
ei var«, Sd elevated (point) source emissions data. The low-level emissions
of emissions of hourly emission rates for each source in the modeling
136
-------
domain. The elevated emissions file consists of emission rates and stack parameters
so that plume rise calculations can be made and emissions can be released into the
proper vertical layer for each hour of the simulation.
Performance Evaluation
After all of the inputs for the UAM have been prepared, the base year emissions
inventory is used to exercise the model, and the hourly ozone predictions are com-
pared to the observations. The ability of the model to replicate the observed ozone
is evaluated by calculating model performance statistics (e.g., bias and error). For
most UAM applications, model performance criteria defining acceptable model per-
formance are stipulated ahead of time. In past applications, a UAM performance
goal of calculating ozone concentrations within 30 percent of observed values has
been used as acceptance criteria (the specific acceptance criteria should be included
in the modeling protocol document). Also, model performance has been considered
adequate if the calculated peak values are within 15 percent of the observed peak
values. The ability of the UAM to simulate the spatial and diurnal variations of the
hourly ozone observations is also examined to ensure that the model is providing the
right answers for the right reasons. Diagnostic simulations can be performed that
examine the effects on ozone concentrations of varying important inputs such as
boundary conditions and mixing heights. If the model performance is not deemed to
be acceptable, then uncertain inputs, such as the wind fields or mixing depths, are
reexamined and may be adjusted within their known range of uncertainty, before the
model is rerun. Because of uncertainties in obtaining model inputs, it is common to
conduct several diagnostic simulations before UAM model performance is deemed to
be satisfactory.
Model Application
Once all parties involved have accepted the base case model simulation, adjustments
to the emissions inventory can be made reflecting future year emissions and differing
emissions control requirements. Emissions inventories are constructed reflecting
possible emissions controls, and the model is rerun. A general goal is to find the
lowest-cost emissions control scenario that will produce predicted peak ozone con-
centrations less than the ozone NAAQS. Note that there is no one unique emissions
inventory that will achieve attainment. In fact, since the UAM explicitly treats the
reactivity and distribution of the emissions, there may be several different percen-
tages of VOC controls that will achieve attainment. Changes in ozone concentra-
tions from the base case simulation are obtained by comparing the maximum concen-
trations calculated for the day, hour-by-hour concentrations at specific locations,
and the spatial differences in ozone throughout the modeling domain for each hour.
Time series graphs and ozone difference isopleth figures are used to show ozone
response to changes in emissions.
8905Br2 •*
137
-------
Advantages and Disadvantages of EKMA and UAM Modeling Approaches
-^^^^
^
offer an ozone .""P^Sntial information provided by a
th. added cost of app.yins the mode, con,-
pared to EKMA.
Factor, to Consider in Choosing EKMA or UAM for AppUcation to TCM Analyse,
UAM is P^red » EKMA
138
-------
in
i
o
E
S
3
•o
CO
2
UJ
JZ
*o
c
.§
k.
3.
E
o
CJ
•
1
(U
CO
s
^^
3
2
IU
V
fl
£
u
•g
1
o
E
T3
s>
C
.2
'u
_4»
tu
15
u
!3
0.
i«
5
§^
'So o
§5
n
§
1
S 1
£ £
"3 "3
"g "g
2 2
1
Hourly and spatially varying wi
field at several vertical levels
|S
•e E
3 •=
Single trajectory from
core to location of ma)
^
g^
i
i
&
§
eb
u
m
ja
k«
u
'i
u
o
tration.
observed ozone concen
•a
0)
*rf
shear and vertical transport tre
•o
O)
*-•
10
4>
Vertical transport is tr
as a linear dilution
15
+•*
in
,
5
_>.
"3
5
o.
1
**
•o
§
JX
5
^»
2.
t/5
•o
U
4^
C
.g
1
8-
T3
5.
"o
§
dry deposition rates as a functi
i
**
meteorology (stability), surface
and species
E
RJ
I
CQ
CJ
! 1
^ c
i: • o
o ra
2 CJ
w
1
u
tn
Not treated
Any chemical mechani
^^
§• .2
^A ^*
>• u
T3
^^
1
input; Carbon-Bond IV
Mechanism is default
0)
_c
o
CJ
in
o-
139
-------
1
V*
!»'
*
•1
1
-s.
1
2!
*•»
A
V
tu
•DM*
|
CA
CB-IV chemical rate constant:
E
.—
g
1
.a
4-"
2
12
1
U
Model Inputs
Chemistry
and species surface resistance
!^
constants (CB-F
t)
l|
i.a
^
in
«T3
screen trajector
of peak observe
S|
D o
U)
£
cL
o
o
«•
vO
O
•
•
(0
0
o
CO
M-t
,>.
k.
Spatially and temporally (hou
varying
8
*->
1*4
(0
(0
o £
oo Q0
SJ
C 60
:E .£
fe.2
S E
*^
Mixing heigl
j>*
U
Spatially and temporally (hou
varying surface temperature;
temperature lapse rate above
and below the mixing height
rarying surface
ments
f 1
I E
O-
a
1
£
Hourly varying
3
1
4-1
1
**4 *"*
+•* Q.
Sg
*•> o
23
o o
.
r
t-
i
•«
5
U
U1
o
or
140
-------
^
§
2
3
S
UJ
•0 £3 '"f if E
*i «^ *• ^ Ut
Spatially and hourly varying gridde
area source emissions and point so
emissions and stack parameters. 1
mixed layer. Speciated approprial
depending upon chemical mechani!
Region-wide VOC, NOX
and CO emissions, with large
NOX point sources screened
to determine if emissions
will be in mixed layer. VOC
emissions generally split into
CB-IV species using default
reactivity
1
E
iu.
t; -o
Based on day-specific measuremel
and historical observations
interpolated onto the modeling gri
Based on day-specific 6-9 a.m.
urban core measurements
(can be median values)
8.
"y
u '
€
i
u
3T
•»•
__
^ 2 „,
£• M> (n
Concentrations above the top of t
modeling region and along the latf
boundaries based on measurement
and historical observations
Concentrations transported in
surface layer above the mixed
layer specified according to
procedures in the guidelines
a
.2
1!
0
la"
1
a
.£
•5
Hourly ozone and ozone precursor
concentrations at each location w
the modeling domain
Maximum hourly ozone
concentration and percent VOC
emissions reduction required to
meet the ozone NAAQS
3
a
o
1
A
Explicit treatment of chemistry
•3
1
'a
^
•J3
f
tu
§
1
«
Explicit treatment of transport
Ease of use, simple inputs
o
3
'•3
«*•
o
I
(0
0>
'5
"S.
X
01
Low computer costs
.5
^2
£
vt
Explict treatment of emissions di
and reactivity
141
-------
01
4-
ft)
«
llu
ft)
3
O
O
re
Treatment of
urban domain
0) U
BO +•>
c v
re >
"u c
tO
£
a.
E
u
a>
>
'i
V
X
4)
fe
E
£
L>
"3 «)
ffe
a: -^
«
D
g"
•~*
1
're
w
0)
5
E
at
V
t>
'5
sr
Di.
•2 £ 'E o <"
eo g. .5? >, 3
i .= "" = u>
i-* ^^ vj *•• nl dJ
•8 § is 5 I -
t 8 2 3 > -S
o o ** •> sg 0
» « cf £ .S E
o /- .2 *i in "3
tt> u. vi U •:
> •— *-
nini
•k
*«*
•8 I.
•I S
^ 2
£ ~
•9 "3
•q.«
(3 £
> fe
4-> >
S u-
* g
«-. J=
O to
I!
and diffusion
£
_o
'+••
_«
1
*
<*4
Does not account
fe
buttons
in emissions distri
>,
+">
emissions reactivi
4->
'1.
V
"ob
'35
Modeling result is
estimate
•o
§
T3
£
•S"
V
*l*
Cannot be evalua
4->
tl
IF
DO
!I
certainty of obtai
•eason"
b«
4-t
f
L.
5.
1_
a;
8'
g
s «-!?•
s>,i«*E
zpsassji
'£ S 22 w ° o
5^Sls
*«li!i
sls!"ll
- ' »" *5 § u
= g o 2 S 1
•** 2 5\ C "S
v 'bb£ t gj a>
•2 «j <« O .— u
D u. iu u
-------
5 ORGANIZATIONAL/ADMINISTRATIVE GUIDANCE
INTRODUCTION
This review of issues arising in TCM program administration is designed to help
government officials monitor and enforce adopted TCMs. Since monitoring TCMs
can be especially complex, this topic is discussed in some detail; methods for moni-
toring background conditions and growth trends, for tracking implementation, and for
assessing in-place performance and making adjustments as needed are reviewed.
Enforcement issues are then considered, along with alternative approaches such as
in-lieu fees and assessments. The concluding section presents a discussion of issues
to consider in setting up the administration of TCM programs.
The success of transportation control measures (TCMs) depends in large part on the
quality of their implementation. For some measures, primarily those that can be
classified as capital improvement projects, the implementation question may seem
straightforward? Were the projects implemented (built or installed) as proposed? The
establishment of park-and-ride lots, installation of traffic signals, and construction
of high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes are examples. However, such projects should
be examined to determine whether they are performing as expected; adjustments
may be in order. Park-and-ride lots may need better marketing, signage, and light-
ing; traffic signals' timing plans may need adjustments; HOV lanes may need stricter
enforcement.
Many other TCMs involve day-to-day operations and therefore must be periodically
reviewed and adjusted to reflect the problems and opportunities of the time.
Demand management programs promoting commute alternatives, parking restric-
tions, and work schedule changes provide good examples. For instance, experience
may show that shuttle services are carrying few passengers, but subsidized subscrip-
tion buses are in heavy demand. A sound TCM program will have the information and
the flexibility to transfer resources from the shuttles to the buses in such a case.
Occasionally, TCMs will not be implemented as expected (perhaps, despite commit-
ments to the contrary, some will not be implemented at all). In these cases decisions
will need to be made on what to do next—adjust the requirements, require substitute
measures, take enforcement actions. Whichever strategy is chosen, good monitoring
data, sound record-keeping, and creative organizational and administrative
approaches will be critical.
890S8r2 23
U3
-------
MONITORING
"Monitoring" as the term is used here is the tracking and evaluation of transportation
projects and programs, and their interplay with changes in land use and development
patterns, demographic and employment trends, economic conditions, and related
elements of the broader urban system. The purposes of monitoring are to provide
transportation managers and oversight agencies with the information they need to
assess the performance of transportation programs, and to make any adjustments or
improvements that are needed to achieve program goals. TCM monitoring should
also be designed to provide direct input to help air quality officials track percentage
emissions reductions achieved and to prepare "Reasonable Further Progress" (RFP)
reports. (Consult with regional EPA staff on how to appropriately include TCM
effectiveness in RFP reports.)
. • ' v* »;; , i" , _
Transportation monitoring can take several forms:
Monitoring trends for input to planning and to provide a "background" or
"base case" for analysis of TCM effectiveness;
Monitoring planning activities to assess consistency and progress toward
implementation; and
Monitoring implemented projects and programs to assess their efficiency
and effectiveness.
Although much of the effort of TCM program administration goes into the
monitoring of projects (progress toward implementation and as-implemented
performance), all three types of transportation monitoring are usually needed in
order to fully evaluate a TCM program. Monitoring trends allows the analyst to
assess their effects and to distinguish these effects from the results of TCM activi-
ties, so that the transportation management program can take credit (or blame) only
for the consequences of its own actions. Monitoring planning activities allows the
TCM effort to evaluate the effects of such things as proposed or actual land use and
transportation projects, assess how much progress is being made toward effective
TCM action, and present cohesive policy arguments to the decision makers in the
responsible organizations. With these two sources of information in hand, the TCM
program's own efforts can be better assessed and adjusted as appropriate.
Table 5-1 lists common sources of data for each of the three categories of
monitoring discussed here. It should be noted that trends monitoring, which is
potentially the most resource-intensive of the three, is routinely carried out by state
and regional planning agencies, departments of finance, and metropolitan planning
organizations. TCM planners rarely would need to carry out these forms of
monitoring themselves; using the available resources is adequate if the sources of
data and their strengths and limitations are clearly understood.
144
S«OS8r2 23
-------
TABLE 5-1 Monitoring strategies.
1. Analyze growth trends, travel data (to establish baseline and provide accurate
assessment of TCM performance)
data on population, employment, incomes (Census, Finance Depts.)
land use changes (local, regional agencies)
traffic counts (local, regional, state)
employee surveys
home interview surveys (regional)
2. Track planning activities, policies, finance (to assess progress toward
implementation of plans and programs, consistency of other actions that could
support or interfere)
state, regional, local plans
legislation; regulations and guidelines
work programs
budgets; capital improvement programs
3. Assess implementation of projects, programs
employee travel surveys .
annual reports and work programs (employers, developers, building managers)
employer surveys t
reviews of state, regional, local plans, work programs, budgets
traffic counts, parking surveys, vehicle occupancy studies
89058rl 23
-------
Monitoring Trends
The monitoring of trends includes keeping track of deveiopment-"growth tracking"-
and travel monitoring. These types of monitoring usually involve review of census
data, economic reports, land use inventories and building permit files, regional and
local transportation studies, and the like; sometimes data collection is also under-
taken expressly to support trends monitoring. They are undertaken because changes
in social and economic factors and in the natural and built environments all can have
decided effects on the feasibility and performance of transportation control
measures. Unless trends are monitored, meaningful statements about the perfor-
mance of TCMs cannot be made.
Growth tracking is carried out to establish a (moving) baseline for purposes of
evaluation. It usually covers such factors as population size and demographics,
household size and composition, housing choices, employment characteristics, and
income levels, as well as changes in the magnitude, distribution, and characteristics
of commercial development and housing stock and in the availability of land and
infrastructure for future development.
Travel monitoring is carried out to provide an understanding of trends in travel
behavior, traffic levels, and transport systems' operations and performance;; it also
provides a baseline against which to assess transportation programs and projects, it
involves reviewing and/or gathering data on such indicators as home-based and non-
home-based trip generation rates, by purpose of trip and time of day; mode of ttaveli
trip length and distribution (origin-destination patterns); and traffic volumes. When
these data are riot available, judicious use of gasoline tax receipts and counts at key
locations can provide rough indicators.
Other variables that influence travel choices, such as gasoline prices and transit
fares, should be monitored as well.
Monitoring Planning Activities
The monitoring of planning activities is carried out to track TCMs' progress toward
Sple^entation as well as to ensure that the TCMs will be effective when imp ie-
mented and will not be offset or "cancelled out" by factors and actions not fully
accounted for. Specific activities in this category include:
Review of planning and implementation status, to assess whether
particular policies, projects, and programs are progressing toward funding
and implementation;
Consistency assessment, to ensure that compatible assumption* and data
are being used in different planning efforts that may affect one another;
6SOSBr2 23
146
-------
Tracking of legislative actions that could substantially affect
transportation programs.
These types of monitoring usually involve review of legislative actions, budgets,
planning reports, and transportation improvement programs.
Monitoring Projects and Programs
Monitoring of transportation projects and programs includes:
• Determining whether projects and programs were in fact implemented as
planned;
• Monitoring as-implemented performance to assess whether the TCM is
operating efficiently and producing positive results (and to check whether
it is performing as assumed in the emissions projections estimates); and,
where necessary,
Monitoring any changes and modifications undertaken to correct deficien-
cies or enhance performance.
Tracking implementation of TCMs can be complicated if there is a heavy program-
matic emphasis on employer-based programs, development mitigation, and small-
scale, operations-oriented .localized activities. In these cases, careful record-
keeping is critical. Record-keeping strikes many as a trivial task, but too often it
has proven to be the Achilles heel of implementation: experiences show that a lack
of clear records can even lead to a measure literally being "forgotten"! (This is
especially a. problem with requirements imposed, on a case-by-case, basis, on new
developments.) Later, lack of records can make it hard to measure performance
accurately, and can undermine enforcement.
Today's microcomputers and data base management software can help keep records
straight, and can be set up to provide reminders that a review is called for or a
submittal is due. Simpler methods such as calendar displays can also be helpful.
Evaluating performance of TCMs is also greatly helped by good record-keeping.
Ideally, program and project impacts are forecasted or estimated as part of the
initial program/project design; evaluations are then carried out as a means of assess-
ing the extent to which the predicted results have been realized. Other evaluations
may be conducted to assess cost-effectiveness and efficiency, or to identify possible
modifications to respond to changed conditions.
890S8r2 23 147
-------
Review of in-place performance can entail a variety of actions. Few TCMs can be
meaningfully evaluated by simply determining whether they were deployed as pro-
posed. Performance depends, as well, on market acceptance, changes in exogenous
factors, etc., and may vary with the amount of elapsed time since implementation.
For example, consider a traffic signal timing project. Initially, the review of in-
place performance may merely involve ensuring that the new timings were in fact
installed, and are performing as expected. In later years, however, it would be
appropriate to check whether traffic volumes and/or patterns may have changed
substantially. If so, retiming may be warranted. Similar kinds of monitoring are
warranted for other capital investment projects whose operations may affect how
well they work.
Pricing strategies also should be reviewed periodically. For example, tolls or parking
fees may be set to capture the externality costs of congestion, pollution, and noise,
to discourage commuting by single occupancy vehicle, or to put out-of-pocket auto
travel costs on par with costs of vanpooling or using transit. Unless such tolls and
fees are reviewed periodically, their effect may be lost as real costs change due to
inflation, changed vehicle characteristics, or other factors.
Probably the most complex strategies to monitor are those that involve employer-
based transport management, which itself may encompass ridesharing, parking man-
agement, transit improvements, work schedule changes, and voluntary no-drive
days. As implemented under trip reduction ordinances, these programs may set
employee participation rate targets and specific actions to be taken by employers
which vary in scope and extent with employer or complex size and location.
Monitoring often includes review of employee travel surveys as well as evaluation of
trip reduction plans and programs. In addition, complementary government actions
such as park-and-ride faculties, higher downtown parking rates, reduced parking
requirements for new developments, and additional transit and paratransit service
may be committed to by local government in a trip reduction ordinance (or other-
wise), and these" commitments also should be monitored.
Examples of common monitoring tasks and the issues they raise are discussed next.
„ iiji;
Monitoring Employee Travel: Surveys
The most critical element of monitoring efforts for employer-based TCM programs is
employee travel surveys. In a typical application, an initial survey, together with
information on general transportation conditions, is the basis for the design of the
initial tCM efforts'to be undertaken by employers. Later surveys, usually
administered one to two years after the commencement of program activities and
annually or biennially thereafter, aim at assessing performance of the TCM programs
and would form the basis for potentially significant program revisions and redirection
of effort. In some applications employee surveys (interpreted in light of exogenous
trends and supplemented by evidence from traffic counts or parking lot surveys, e.g.)
89058r2 23
148
-------
also would be used by agency officials to decide whether to permit employer pro-
grams to continue as voluntary undertakings or shift to mandatory requirements.
Employee travel surveys have been successfully utilized in many jurisdictions, but
there are usually a number of complications to contend with. One issue is when to
conduct the first evaluation survey. If it is scheduled for a year after the baseline
survey, certain program activities might not yet be implemented or might be just
getting started (since many would require some preparation time and review before
implementation, and some may have necessitated certain refinements during the
early start-up phase.) However, a longer wait may unduly delay needed evaluation
and program adjustments.
Another issue is how to account for exogenous changes. If at all possible, the evalua-
tion surveys should be accompanied by a round of collecting and assessing informa-
tion on changes in the transportation system, land use changes, population and
employment shifts, etc., in order to give context to the survey results. For example,
if gasoline prices should increase substantially, or if transit services are added or
dropped, an attempt should be made to estimate the effect the changes have had on
travel behavior, in order to avoid attributing too much or too little to the TCM
program itself.
In practice, a number of changes are likely to have occurred since the initial survey,
and these changes may make interpretation of the evaluation survey difficult. For ,.
example, some employers will have expanded; others will have reduced their work
force or moved. Changes in markets or in business practices or emphases may have
substantially altered the employment composition of some employers. Management
changes may have resulted in major shifts in parking policies, or in the availability of
commute subsidies. While many of these changes will be known to staff, it neverthe-
less will be a challenge to account for them in survey interpretation. These matters
will require careful consideration and discussion, and sufficient time and resources
should be allotted to the evaluation process to accommodate this.
A major set of decisions has to be made concerning the administration of employee
surveys (both the initial one and those that follow). A review of practices reveals a
wide range of options. For example, nearly all jurisdictions require the use of a
standard survey form, but some require administration to 100 percent of employees
with a 75 to 80 percent return; some permit a random sampling of employees subject
to sample reliability constraints, and others have no set standard for survey adminis-
tration. While there is no hard and fast rule on survey design issues of this sort, steps
should be taken to ensure that the response rate is representative and large enough
to support needed cross-tabulations. Assistance in sample design often can be
obtained from regional planning agencies, state agencies, or local universities.
Analysis of the survey data is another area where there is a wide variation in
practice. Some jurisdictions require each employer or employment complex to
tabulate the data, while others carry out the analysis of raw data as a service of the
890S8r2 23
-------
tnerefore •
-------
would spell out the planned activities under each program element and would specify
the schedule, staff assignments, and budgetary commitments for each activity.
Progress reports discussing activities under each program element during the report-
ing period and presenting statistics on accomplishments are usually prepared monthly
or quarterly. These reports are referenced to the work program and review
accomplishments on each element (percent complete, problems encountered and
changes made, if any.) Planned activities for the next period also are outlined, and
sometimes expenditure data are included as well. The progress report thus serves as
the basis for management of the program, as well as documenting work performed.
It can be invaluable to state or regional agencies who are technically responsible for
a measure, the actual implementation of which is being carried out by a local
jurisdiction or private organization; in many cases, progress payments or other
monies can be made contingent on adequate progress as documented in the progress
reports; this helps reduce the need for field surveillance.
Monitoring Employers' TCM Activities
Employers are often asked to implement different levels and types of TSM activity,
depending on their size. Monitoring activities also might differ by employer size.
For example, large employers could be required to submit a TCM plan for review and
approval, with annual reports to document performance. Medium-sized employers
might be expected to offer ridesharing services and transit pass sales, but a plan
might be optional. For small employers TCM activity might be optional.
A proposal for a suburban California county's TSM program illustrates a similar
approach using surveys rather than plan submittals. For small employers, an annual
survey would be administered and tabulated by the staff of the oversight agency.
The survey would request information on any TCMs the employers may have imple-
mented. For medium-sized employers, both a survey and a request for information
on planned activities for the coming year would be used. These employers also would
be asked to report on such items as the number of subsidized transit passes sold, the
number of vanpools assisted, etc. Large employers would be asked to provide the
most detailed data on accomplishments under each relevant program element; an
annual progress report and work program for the next year would be required and
would be reviewed and approved or disapproved (in which case revisions would be
mandatory).
Surveys of Developers or Building Managers
Most of the TCMs for which developers or building managers would be responsible
are capital projects; a few are services and operations such as shuttle buses, which,
if implemented, probably would undergo significant modification only occasionally.
89058r2 23 151
-------
Therefore, developers and building managers might be asked to provide an initial
status report, and thereafter, report only on any changes that have occurred.
At small and medium-sized developments, this might be accomplished via a survey
conducted annually (or perhaps biannually). At large developments, an annual report
documenting the details of parking supply and pricing policies, preferential parking
utilization, etc., and setting forth planned actions for the coming year might be
revested.
Monitoring City and County Activities
Cities and counties often have primary responsibility for implementing traffic
engineering and operations improvements and land use plan and zoning charges, and
for monitoring traffic levels and calculating levels of service. General plans, capital
improvement programs, and other planning and budgeting tools often set form cur-
rent rules and outline proposed activities. Annual work programs, by department, ^
also may provide important monitoring data. However, review of local governments
plans, zoning ordinances, work programs, etc. could be a massive undertaking, and
may be justified only for major cities and communities undergoing massive; change.
In other cases cities and counties will make commitments to implement TCMs, which
become part of the SIP. Monitoring implementation on a regular basis then becomes
a regional responsibility. One way to handle the monitoring of TCM-relevant activi-
ties of smaller jurisdictions would be to send out an annual survey to these jurisdic-
tions, in which they would report any engineering and planning TCM actions ac-
complished during the preceding year and report available data on such items as
parking supply, regulation, and prices; traffic levels (ADT, LOS) on major streets^and
ktcritkral intersections, and so on. The progress report approach discuss- -ariier
also can be used and is particularly appropriate when funding is providec state
or regional sources.
Monitoring the Activities of State and Regional Agencies
State departments of transportation and metropolitan planning agencies together are
responsible for planning, budgeting, and programming major highway improvements
(andoften, ridesharing programs and amenities); the MPOs and transit agencies
perforate SSSl function for capital investments in urban and suburban rail, bus,
and paratransit systems. In many cases there are additional county, regional, and
state commissions and committees who also have important review and decision
responsibilities for major transport programs.
Monitoring the activities of these agencies will involve review of planning *»*-
,. work programs, and numerous special studies. However, in view of the: unpor-
"• oJraanV of the projects considered by these agencies, it is well worthwhile for
69058r2 23
*52
-------
agencies with TCM responsibilities to attend the meetings of these organizations in
order to stay on top of the issues. Being on the mailing list of important committees
is critical.
Other Monitoring Activities
Numerous other monitoring strategies can be utilized to assess the performance of
various TCMs. They include spot traffic counts (total traffic, turning movements),
origin-destination studies (surveys and license plate studies), travel time and delay
studies, on- and off-street parking surveys, vehicle occupancy studies, home-based
travel surveys, on-board transit passenger counts and surveys. Such data can provide
a useful picture of overall system performance and, together with TCM-specific
monitoring data and data on broader trends (in fuel prices, income, population and
employment, etc.), can be helpful in developing a deeper understanding of TCM
performance. These data also can provide independent evidence of TCM perfor-
mance (e.g., driveway counts or parking occupancy data are indicators of commute
patterns that can be compared to survey results). Discrepancies are commonly
found, however, and reflect methodological differences as well as actual under- or
over-reporting biases. Therefore, caution should be used in drawing conclusions from
two separate measures of the same phenomenon.
Standard traffic engineering handbooks provide much useful information on traffic
and travel monitoring techniques. Survey research centers at many universities offer
public advisory help, as well.
ENFORCEMENT
Implementation failures are an eventuality for which agencies charged with
administering a TCM program must be prepared. Such failures can result from a
total refusal to act, continued delays, or implementation of only some aspects ol tne
TCM project or program. Also, monitoring results may indicate that a particular
TCM has performed poorly because implementation has been poorly carried out.
Whatever the circumstances, oversight agencies must decide how to proceed. A
number of alternatives are available, so that enforcement actions can be tailored to
the situation at hand.
One option is to utilize conventional enforcement procedures. In broad terms this
would involve sending a notification or citation to the offending party, providing for
a hearing and/or appeals process with adequate due process protections, and then
fm^ing sanctions for failure to comply. For this approach to be effective, the e
must be (1) an ability to determine whether a failure has, in fact, occurred, and (2)
£me consequence (a fine, loss of operating permit, loss of funding, restriction on
pTmSle uses of funds, etc.) for continued failure to comply. Equity considera-
Sons suggest that failure to comply should be due to wrongful actions or refusal to
act, rather than impossibility or noncompliance despite good faitn efforts.
890S8r2 23 153
-------
Many trip reduction ordinances and similar regulatory programs impose f "« °' °"™^™nl
programs. On the other hand, few impose conventional penalties for failure to
achLe established performance targets. Probably the most important reasons that
for many f CMs, gooa faith implementation is no assurance of success. For example,
L^t service can be deployed but may not attract riders; high-quality bike lanes
m^rfofbe used by £omlters; land use plans designed to maintain acceptable Bevels
S service on adjacent streets can lead to gridlock if transit services are cut. While
a few oroerams, including Pleasanton, CA's trip reduction ordinance and the Los
AngLPs S South Coalt Air District's Regulation XV, require plan revision when
eShYd goals are not met, they do not attach further penalties in cases of poor
consumer acceptance.
Required plan revision is one form of a broader strategy in which
Son triggers a review of the requirement, with modification or substitution of
Serially effective, measure. This approach is most often used when per-
aweSctitlons, but it also seems to be applicable :o case, in which
mSeSs for good cause. For example, a lack of financial capacity
i^snsLe for*. transit agency to carry out commitments -ade in m°re
timesVa parking agency may lack legal authority to provide ree parking
^ emp^er may have union agreements setting forth precise hours of
S^Si^^L. Sometimes an extension of time will suffice, but in
other instances a renegotiation of the requirement may be in order.
with fines is that they can be hard to collect. Another consideration
fe ^-J « associatedwith "wrong-doing," there oftenjs .n stance to
aoDlv them to such matters as TCM implementation quality or success. As an
alterhat^ to f Ses, a few jurisdictions have created in-lieu assessments, which are
Tto fu^her TCMs (e.g., to subsidize shared ^.^^«^!SSly
Traffic impact fees are charged on a per-tnp basis, with a substantially
accurate monitoring is needed to provide the trip-count basis for the fee.
agency act as its ir emolover would be billed for the costs of the
!S?^^^5K3^» fail to offer an adequate commute alternatives
pSm co^ld be requLd to use the services of the ridesharing agency. Table 5-2
summarizes available enforcement options.
154
890SSr2 23
-------
TABLE 5-2. Enforcement approaches.
• Conventional enforcement: notice, hearing, fines or other penalties
• Required plan revision to achieve required performance
• In-lieu fees for failure to achieve required performance
• Third-party implementation of required measures; assessment of costs
SSQS8rl 23
155
-------
ADMINISTRATIVE CONSIDERATIONS
TCM program administration generally involves a number of organizations and
actors, Responsibility for TCMs may fall to state transportation departments (HOV
lanes, park-and-ride lots, ramp metering, tolls, and other projects on and along state
highways); area-wide ridesharing agencies (carpool and vanpooi programs, promotion
of "no drive" days); area-wide transit districts (route restructuring, special fare
programs); city and county traffic engineers (intersection improvements, on-street
parking management, traffic signals); local planners (off-street parking require-
ments, traffic mitigation for new development, land use-transportation coordina-
tion); land developers (bike facilities, shuttle services, parking supply and price), and
employers (work schedule changes, transportation benefits, parking charges.)
Furthermore, TCMs may be developed by one group, approved by a second, ^ple-
mented by a third, and monitored by still another agency. This complex institutional
Teeing means that program management and administration itself requires careful
planning. As the TCMs being utilized will vary from place to place, so will program
administration.
A TCM oversight agency (whether an air district, a COG, or a local government
£2ttment) ^11 SldS devise administrative procedures that reflect not only the
pSTs ; of Se program but also the resources available for administrator, Since
organizational arrangements, assignments of responsibility for particular kinds of
Sires, arid internal staff capabilities vary widely, it's likely that no two TCM
programs can or should be administered in exactly the same way, even if they involve
SS- measures. Indeed, what works well in San Francisco, with a planning staff of
9™nSy nor work at all well in Sacramento, where staff size is considerably more
modest.
A first step may well be to identify all the important players, put them on :-.- -.ir
quality planning committee, and call periodic meetings to discuss ^pleme: , on
and enforcement. The committee can serve an important educative funct: ^ well
as providing a forum for negotiation and decision making.
to consider in designing the administrative program include staff skills, funds
e^d questions of timing. With regard to staff skills, it should be noted that
my TCMs areTbased in traffic engineering know-how, others require ^plann ng ski lls,
and still others rely on knowledge of economics and pricing. In addition, skills in
Sfic data collection, data analysis and modeling, and survey research may be
needed to evaluate performance of the measures. Depending on the kindsj>f TCMs
SgSSSSl-sEf already avaiiab e to the oversight agency, it may be possible
pl-sf already avaiiab e to te oversg agen,
conduct an adequate in-house program of administration and assessment.
ternat^, the following approaches might be used to carry out the work:
890Sar2 23 156
-------
Add staff positions (e.g., hire a traffic engineer to administer programs
involving signals and HOV lanes, or a marketing specialist for the demand
management programs); match skills to the requirements of priority
TCMs;
• Hire consultants to assist with specific tasks (e.g., to conduct employee
surveys or review all traffic signal projects) or to handle special, one-
time projects;
• Design an implementation and assessment strategy that relies on self-
reporting (e.g., employers must survey their own employees' travel
behavior, and cities must report on parking price, supply, and utilization);
• Some combination of the above (e.g., use self-reporting but audit every
Nth report using in-house staff or consultants). .
The approach that works best will depend on the agency's funding levels, the ability
to pass program costs on to those being regulated, and the "fit" with the way things
are done in the area in question.
Timing questions include staff's ability to spend time out of the office; size of the
program versus time available to carry out tasks; and acceptable frequency of
reviews and turn-around times. Even if staff have the skills to carry out the
administrative and implementation tasks, it may not be practical for them to do so if
that would require considerable amounts of field work and absence from the office
would disrupt other important agency functions. Similarly, staff may be able to
perform certain tasks (analysis of travel surveys, e.g.) but might not be able to do it
as fast as a consultant, who could put large numbers of analysts to work on it at
once. If the program design permits biennial evaluations with a six-month turn-
around, staff may be able to do the work; if an annual survey is desired with 60-day
response times, either self-reporting or use of a consultant may be a preferable
choice.
Monitoring for each TCM or package of TCMs will be most effective, and most likely
to feed back into subsequent programmatic improvements, if it is designed to be
carried out by (or at least with the active participation of) those to which implemen-
tation responsibilities are assigned. The monitoring products also should be designed
for use in program management; they should be used as the basis for decisions or
subsequent activities.
Program administration, particularly monitoring, unavoidably involves a substantial
amount of data gathering and analysis. Its objective, however, is to provide useful
information for planning and decision making, and not simply to amass statistics. It
is critical that monitoring activities be designed to respond to programmatic infor-
mation needs, as reflected in the goals of the programs being evaluated. Care must
157
890SSr2 23
-------
be taken not to lose sight of the ultimate program goals in a quest for better num-
bers or to let monitoring activities become an end in themselves. In addition,
because monitoring can be time consuming and expensive, it must be designed to be
efficient in its use of resources and to utilize and complement, not duplicate, the
work of other agencies.
SS058r2 23
*.'
158
-------
DEFINITIONS OF ABBREVIATIONS
ADT:
ARZ:
CAA:
CALINE:
CBD:
CB-IV:
CMB:
CMSA:
CO:
DOT:
DTIM:
EKMA:
EMFAQ
EPA:
FHWA:
HC:
HOV:
MOBILE*:
MOBPART:
MPO:
MSA:
NAAQS:
NCHRP:
Average daily traffic
Automobile restricted zone
United States Clean Air Act of 1970 and the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1977
EPA-pref erred roadway model for PM-10 analyses and for CO hot
spot analyses; CALINE3 is the EPA-approved current available
version
Central business district
Carbon-Bond IV Chemical Mechanism for ozone formation; the
current version of the chemical mechanism for use with the Urban
Airshed Model and EKMA
Chemical mass balance receptor model; used to model PM-10
concentrations
Consolidated metropolitan statistical area
Carbon monoxide
U.S. Department of Transportation
Direct Travel Impact Model; used in California to produce gridded
mobile source emission inventories.
Empirical Kinetics Modeling Approach; simplified computer modeling
approach for urban-scale ozone air quality modeling
The motor vehicle emission factor model for use in California;
EMFAC7E is the current version
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
U.S. Federal Highway Administration; part of the U.S. Department
of Transportation
Hydrocarbon
High occupancy vehicle
Inspection and maintenance program for motor vehicles
The current version of the U.S. EPA motor vehicle emission factor
program
A computer model to calculate motor vehicle exhaust, tire wear, and
brake wear particulate emission factors; available from the U.S. EPA
Metropolitan planning organizations
Metropolitan statistical area
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Nitrogen oxides
89058r2
159
-------
O-D: Origin-destination
OSHA: U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration
OZIPM4: Ozone isopleth plotting with optional mechanisms 4; the computer
code used with the EKMA ozone model
PLANR: Procedure for low-cost airshed application in nonattainment regions;
lower-cost procedure to use the Urban Airshed Model with routinely
available data while relaxing usually strict model performance
standards
PM-iO: Particuiate matter having an aerodynamic diameter of
approximately 10 microns or less
RAM: Air quality dispersion model that can be used for urban-scale CO and
PM-10 modeling
RFDAs: Rural fugitive dust areas; sparsely populated areas with non-
anthropogenic emission sources of PM-10
RVP: Reid vapor pressure of gasoline
SEP: State implementation plan
SOV: Single occupant vehicle
TAZ; Traffic analysis zone
TCMi Transportation control measure
TDM; Transportation demand management
TMA; Transportation management association (same as TMO)
TMO: Transportation management organization (same as TMA)
TRANSYT: Traffic network study tool used as a computerized signal timing
model; U.S. versions developed by the U.S. Federal Highway
Administration and the University of Florida Transportation
Research Center; TRANSYT7F is the current version
TRO: Trip reduction ordinance
TSM: Transportation system management
UAM: Urban Airshed Model; three-dimensional computerized air ijuality
grid model; designed to calculate concentrations of both ir~rt and
chemically reactive pollutants (e.g., ozone)
UMTA: Urban Mass Transportation Administration (part of the U,i.
Department of Transportation)
UTPS: Urban Transportation Planning System; a transportation computer
modeling system developed by the Urban Mass Transportation
Administration and the U.S. Federal Highway Administration
VMT: f chicle miles traveled
VOC: Volatile organic compound
S»OS8r2
160
-------
Appendix A
GUIDANCE FOR ESTIMATING EFFECTS OF
TRANSPORTATION MEASURES ON PM-10 EMISSIONS
880S8r2 9
-------
-------
Appendix A
GUIDANCE FOR ESTIMATING EFFECTS OF
TRANSPORTATION MEASURES ON PM-10* EMISSIONS
1. INTRODUCTION
Scope and Purpose
The promulgation of the PM-10 National Ambient Air Quality Standards and PM-10
SIP requirements (EPA, 1987d) has imposed new requirements for qualitatively
assessing primary particulate emissions and ambient concentrations. Re-entrained
road dust and motor vehicle exhaust and tire wear are among the most significant
contributors to primary and secondary PM-10 emissions in urban (and some rural)
areas.
The purpose of this appendix is to provide conceptual background and technical gui-
dance to assist local agencies in estimating the impacts of transportation control
measures (TCMs) on PM-10 emissions and ambient concentrations. Controls on non-
vehicie-related PM-10 sources, and controls that affect the PM-10 emission factors
for vehicle-related sources are outside the scope of this guidance, which is directed
at controls that affect motor vehicle use.
To make this guidance as general as possible, we have refrained from quantifying the
decreases (or increases) in trip generation and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) that
might be expected from any particular type of control measure. Such figures are
city-specific since they are dependent on local urban traffic conditions and roadway
network layout. The main guidance document offers information to help estimate
the effectiveness of specific TCMs.
In general, TCM effectiveness in reducing PM-10 concentrations will result primarily
from reductions in road dust emissions.
* PM-10 is an acronym for particulate matter having an aerodynamic diameter of
approximately 10 microns or less.
890S8J-2 9
-------
This appendix first briefly discusses general background information, including the
regulatory requirements that are pertinent to motor vehicle PM-10 issues (Sec-
tion 2). Section 3 presents the technical procedures and concepts on which baseline
(pre-control) PM-10 inventories should be based. This discussion focuses on motor-
vehicle-related emissions and, particularly, on those parameters that can be changed
by TCMs. Following that, Section 4 discusses methods for determining the effec-
tiveness of TCMs in reducing PM-10 emissions. Sources of emission factors and rela-
ted information are listed in Section 5. Finally, Section 6 discusses air quality
receptor and dispersion models that can be used to model PM-10 baseline and TCM
impacts.
2. BACKGROUND
Genera* Background: Motor Vehicle-Related PM-10 Emissions
Representing one of the most significant source categories of PM-10 emissions,
motor vehicles contribute both primary and secondary PM-10 emissions to an area s
total PM-10 inventory. Primary emissions are those emitted directly from the
vehicle or that result directly from the vehicle's use. Primary motor vehicle PM-10
emissions consist mostly of dust that is re-entrained from paved and unpaved road-
ways. Vehicle exhaust, tire wear, and brake wear also contribute. Secondary PM-10
results when motor vehicle emissions chemically react in the atmosphere to form
PM-10. Vehicle exhaust emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and
volatile organic compounds (VOCs) contribute to secondary PM-10 formation. NOx
reacts in the atmosphere to form paniculate nitrate; SO2 reacts to form particulate
sulfate? and VOCs react to convert to organic secondary particulates (VOCs also
affect nitrate and sulfate reactions).
Two brief examples demonstrate the significance of motor-vehicle-related PM-10
(and PM-10 precursor) emissions:
Mobile exhaust sources were estimated to contribute 29 to 38 percent of the
PM-10 mass in 1985 ambient PM-10 concentrations in California, when secon-
dary as well as primary contributions were considered. Re-entrained dust from
paved roads made up 40 percent of the California PM-10 inventory (Wendt and
Garza, 1988).
Vehicle-related exhaust and dust emissions accounted for 30 percent of 1985
Denver PM-iO primary and secondary emissions (Huhn et al., 1988).
Regulatory Background
The 1987 EPA promulgation of NAAQS and SIP requirements for PM-10 was based on
the health effects of fine oarticulate matter. The health effects of indr : : ..1
A-2
-------
chemical constituents of PM-10, such as suifates and certain potentially toxic
organic substances, were not neglected but were considered to be covered by the
overall PM-10 standards (Emison, 1988). Thus, PM-10 composition is not directly a
regulatory issue. y
The previous total suspended particulates (TSP) NAAQS were replaced with a 24-
hour-average ambient PM-10 standard of 150 ug/m3 and an annual average PM-10
standard of 50 wg/nr3 (EPA, 1987d). Areas are classified as Group I, II, or III, in
increasing order of the probability of meeting the NAAQS and decreasing order of
difficulty in reaching attainment. A few sparsely populated rural areas have also
been classified as rural fugitive dust areas (RFDAs) on the basis that PM-10 emis-
sions are primarily from non-anthropogenic sources.
This regulatory structure implies certain constraints on modeling of PM-10 emissions
and ambient concentrations, as follows:
SIP modeling must demonstrate attainment of both the 24-hour and annual
average standards. Different assumptions and modeling techniques are needed
for the two averaging periods. This is important because vehicular activity
contributes varying proportions of the total PM-10 impact during the year.
This time variation must be accounted for in both the peak-day inventories
used for 24-hour-average modeling and the annual average inventories.
A PM-10 inventory and receptor modeling may be used as partial evidence that
an area does or does not qualify as an RFDA, which may result in a change in
its group classification. Road dust emissions may very well be a large part of
the inventory of an area potentially classifiable as an RFDA.
3. BASELINE INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT
Introduction
The first step in estimating TCM effectiveness in PM-10 control is the development
of a baseline PM-10 inventory (and of a precursor inventory if secondary PM-10 is a
significant part of ambient PM-10 concentrations—a secondary inventory will usually
be available, however, with the possible exception of SOX). A baseline PM-10 inven-
tory may be generated either for a historical year or for a future year. This section
of the appendix concentrates on the procedures to follow and the information
required to compile baseline inventories of vehicle-related PM-10 sources.
Factors Affecting the PM-10 Emissions Inventory
Paved and unpaved road dust is typically the largest source of primary PM-10 emis-
sions in the vehicle-related inventory. The quantity of road dust emissions, whether
890S8r2 9
A-3
-------
quantity of emissions (Cowherd et al., 1988).
vehicle activity.
use radial tires (SCAQMD, ,,SS>.
Vehicle exhaust emissions of
require characterization rt : ^^ 'e fleet, a(fcr pre-
not depend on temperature, tne v^iatl°" 01 , {. conditions only, not the effects
89058r2 9
A-4
-------
Relative Importance of Factors Affecting the Emissions Inventory
In most areas the most important vehicle-related source of PM-10 is road dust. The
relative importance of unpaved and paved road dust depends on the relative amounts
of traffic on paved and unpaved roads. Exhaust PM-10 and tire and brake wear are
next, and roughly equal, in order of importance among primary PM-10 vehicle emis-
sions. Table A-l summarizes these points.
The exact importance of vehicle emissions of secondary PM-10 precursors is difficult
to establish. In some regions, such as Phoenix, Arizona, nitrates and suifates consti-
tute a small part of ambient PM-10, partly because of the dry climate (Bird, 1989).
In other regions, such as the Los Angeles area, secondary PM-10 is a major contribu-
tor (Gray et al.t 1989). Since there are no established methods of calculating the
effect of TCMs on secondary PM-10 concentrations, and since these concentrations
depend on local humidity, ammonia concentrations, and other locally specific fac-
tors, the importance of improving precursor emission data cannot be ranked in the
same way as for primary emissions.
Estimating the Baseline Inventory
A reasonable estimate of the baseline quantity of paved and unpaved road dust
requires three basic kinds of information: (1) soil (or surface dust) characterization,
(2) traffic characterization, and (3) exhaust characterization.
Soil/Dust Characterization
Soil or dust characterization should be carried out for roads or parking areas that
represent
Paved and unpaved roads and parking lots;
Road surfaces in areas with typical and atypical soil;
Low and high traffic volumes; and
Public and industrial roads
The current equations for estimating road dust show less dependence of emissions on
silt content for industrial paved roads than for public paved roads (Cowherd et al.,
1988; this reference includes an appendix with a methodology to estimate silt loading
on paved roads; default values are listed in EPA's AP-42). This implies that charac-
terization of road soil or dust is somewhat less important for industrial than for
public paved roads, given the same traffic volumes. (In this context, public roads are
those used by a typical cross section of the vehicle fleet, and industrial roads are
those most used by heavy industrial vehicles.)
A-5
-------
TABLE A-l. An approximate ranking of the important factors
contributing to PM-10 conditions.*
Factors of primary importance
VMT
Road dust (and silt loading and silt content of rock soil)
Percent of VMT on paved versus unpaved roads
Factors of secondary importance
Exhaust emissions of NOX (to the extent they contribute
to secondary PM-10 problems)*
Exhaust emissions of SO2 and evaporative emissions of VOC
Exhaust PM-10
Tire and brake wear
..ii!<':iii , -,
* This is a general ranking; some variability is to be
expected from one area to another, and factors are not
ranked within the two categories listed.
* These factors are appropriate to the extent that control
of such sources proves to be beneficial in reducing
PM-10 concentrations; there are substantial scientific
uncertainties concerning the fraction of secondary PM-10.
8«058r2 10
A-6
-------
Traffic Characterization
Traffic characterization can be subdivided into the categories of public and indus-
trial road usage. For public roads and parking lots, it is appropriate to use the aver-
age vehicle weights and number of wheels that can be derived from vehicle registra-
tion records for the county or state. For industrial roads, parking lots, loading areas,
and so on, traffic volumes and vehicle weights and numbers of wheels are likely to
depend on exactly which industries are served. (The main guidance document discus-
ses modeling approaches to estimate traffic volumes; consult with regional transpor-
tation planners for industrial road-related information.)
Road treatment practices must also be considered. Road salting and sanding during
the winter tend .to produce high particulate loadings on Toads in the spring. Road
construction workers may typically redirect traffic onto unpaved shoulders or
through construction dirt, increasing PM-10 emissions, rather than delaying traffic.
Particulate control practices that are already in use, or definitely planned, should
also be included in the baseline.
Exhaust Characterization
Vehicle exhaust emissions follow traffic and soil characterization in importance. If
secondary particulate is an important part of PM-10 ambient concentrations, then
vehicle exhaust NOX emissions (and to a lesser extent, $©2 and VOC emissions)
should be estimated. Otherwise, only exhaust PM-10 need be estimated.
To produce an inventory of primary exhaust particulate, it is necessary to know the
traffic volume (generally in VMT), the vehicle speed distribution for the traffic, the
types and ages of the vehicles in the fleet, the lead content of the local gasoline, and
whether or not there is a local vehicle inspection and maintenance (I&M) program.
(An I&M program reduces organic particulate emissions as well as VOC emissions.) It
is more accurate to calculate the particulate emissions by means of a complete
speed distribution rather than an average speed for all travel since the average speed
is not averaged with respect to emission-producing potential but only with respect to
traffic volume. Of the several vehicle classes, the one producing the greatest emis-
sions of vehicle exhaust particulates is heavy duty diesei vehicles. If resources are
limited, this vehicle class should receive the most attention.
Several more traffic and fleet variables must be known to produce an inventory of
exhaust emissions of secondary particulate precursors
-------
• i VMT The ambient temperature is also used to estimate precursor exhaust
sulfate paniculate (Somers, 1989).
4. EFFECT OF TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS ON PM-10 EMISSIONS
Introduction
tion control measures (TCMs).
Effects of TCMs
either shift traffic to roads witn less uusa variety of effects on
vehicle speeds or operating ^ **£»££ t^fday a'whlch traffic peaks
changed.
reduction in road dust oy ^^"^J djgt \ m produce 10 percent less emissions
reduction than it would if it were
-------
effectiveness (fractional emissions reduction) is not changed, but the amount of
emissions reduction is because the inventory to which the TCM is applied is smaller.
Attribution of inventory reductions to controls with overlapping effects (TCMs or
tailpipe or dust controls) is a bookkeeping problem that should be handled consis-
tently.
Users should refer to the main guidance document for a discussion of individual
TCMs and their traffic-related effects.
5. SOURCES OF PM-10 INFORMATION
Introduction
Two types of information are needed for calculation of an emission rate. The first is
the activity rate. VMT is the most commonly needed measure of activity for
vehicle-related PM-10 emissions. The number and timing of trips is also important
to determine relative numbers of cold and hot starts and hot soaks accompanying
VMT. Both of these activity rates are completely locality-specific and cannot be
taken from generalized references. The second type of information is the emission
factor, or the amount of emissions per unit of activity. Emission factors are com-
monly obtained from general information or standard relationships, although they
may be adjusted for local conditions. The purpose of this section is to list some of
the standard references from which emission factor data and relationships can be
obtained. Some of the known limitations of these sources of information are also
discussed.
Data Bases
The most fundamental source of emission factor data is the EPA AP-42 document
(EPA, 1985a), which continuously updates PM-10 emission factor data in support of
the new PM-10 requirements (Martinez et al., 1988). This document contains some
vehicle-related PM-10 emission factors, including those for paved and unpaved road
dust, as well as a number of other stationary sources. However, AP-42 (and other
references) should be used in light of their limitations:
Investigators may have difficulties analyzing PM-10 source measurements. A
set of tests in which different contractors collaborated to analyze the particu-
late material from the same source gave widely varying results, without any
demonstrable error in measurement procedures. These tests show the diffi-
culty of obtaining precise and accurate PM-10 source measurements
(Eggleston, 1988). In the 6 June 1989 Federal Register (EPA, 1989c), EPA
proposed a reference stack test method for stationary sources; investigators
may find this to be a useful resource.
8«058r2 9
-------
The PM-10 source samplers have a higher PM collection efficiency than do the
samplers that measure ambient PM-10 concentrations (according to the EPA
reference method). Since this difference in collection efficiency varies with
particle size, the two types of devices produce different PM-10/T5P ratios for
the same particulate material. This discrepancy can lead to model overpredic-
tiqn of ambient PM-10 concentrations with respect to measured ambient con-
centrations, and excessive controls may be required on the basis of the model's
overpredictions (Eggleston, 1988).
Road reentrainment factors were developed from data that included very few
samples of some road types, no studies or samples west of Kansas City, and no
wintertime sand or silt sampling (Mohr, 1988). In general, the use of AP-*2
non-site-specific silt loading data significantly increases the uncertainty of
emission rates calculated using AP-42 equations.
Another important source of information on fugitive dust emissions and control
methods is Cowherd and co-workers (1988). This document gives detailed informa-
tion on a variety of fugitive dust sources (including road dust) and demonstrated dust
control techniques, the document also includes example regulations, a general cost-
ing procedure and some control cost data, and general recordkeeping and inspection
procedures. Only source controls are discussed, not transportation control measures.
MOBPART, a computer model to calculate motor vehicle exhaust, tire wear, and
brake wear particulate emission factors, is available from EPA (EEA, 1985). This
model calculates only PM emissions for different size cutpoints, including PM-10,
and is intended as a supplement to the motor vehicle emissions model MOBILES.
(MOBILE* calculates motor vehicle NOX, CO and VOC emission factors.) Program
inputs include the vehicle type and age distribution in the fleet and the lead content
of the gasoline. The PM-10 emission factors produced by MOBPART are broken
down in terms of composition (organics, diesel organics, lead, and sulfates). The pro-
gram can estimate the effect of a vehicle I&M program on reducing organic particu-
late emissions. Fleet composite emission factors are calculated only for vehicle
model years up through 1995. MOBPART is scheduled for update during 1991
(Somers, 1989).
MOBILE* is the current version of the EPA MOBILE motor vehicle emission factor
program. The MOBILE* program can be used to calculate emission factors for the
secondary particulate precursors NOX and VOC. It can produce emission factors for
a variety of different I&M programs. Inputs include the ambient temperature, I&M
program and gasoline Reid vapor pressure (RVP) definitions, and the vehicle type and
age distribution in the fleet. Motor vehicle SO2 emission factors are not calculated
by MOBILE* (or MOBPART) but can be derived from the fuel sulfur content and fuel
consumption rate.
A-10
-------
6. EFFECT OF TRANSPORTATION CONTROLS ON
PM-10 AMBIENT CONCENTRATIONS
Introduction
Proving that control measures reduce the regional PM-10 inventory by a certain per-
centage is not sufficient by itself to demonstrate attainment. It is also necessary to
conduct air quality modeling to demonstrate that the ambient concentrations as well
as the inventory are sufficiently reduced. The air quality impact can be estimated
by the use of both receptor and dispersion models. SIP development guidelines (EPA,
19S7c) recommend that both be used, and their results reconciled, as a means of
minimizing errors in control strategy projections. In this section we first discuss the
issues that air quality modeling should address and, second, some of the modeling
approaches that have been applied.
Modeling Issues
Both the 24-hour average and the annual average PM-10 standards must be addres-
sed. Showing compliance with the 24-hour standard may require that peak 24-hour
concentrations be modeled. In such cases, it may be necessary to develop more than
one inventory because different sources are the dominant contributors at different
times of year. The sources producing 24-hour peak concentrations can therefore be
different from those producing the highest annual average. This principle applies
strongly to vehicle-related PM-10 sources, whose emissions depend on meteorological
conditions such as precipitation and seasonal conditions such as road sanding and
variation in vehicle activity.
It may be necessary to model PM-10 concentrations in the immediate vicinity of a
point source as well as neighborhood- or urban-scale concentrations. Transportation
control measures, per se, are unlikely to affect sources that produce high local con-
centrations. An exception to this premise might be a TCM that (for example) routed
traffic away from unpaved parking lots or similar localized sources of road dust. In
that case, it would be appropriate to model near-field as well as neighborhood-scale
concentration changes resulting from the TCM.
Another issue that arises in air quality modeling is that of secondary particulate
formation. This is chiefly an urban-scale modeling concern, although there are
exceptions: for example, a large ammonia source such as a livestock lot could con-
ceivably increase the concentration of secondary particulate immediately down-
wind. However, possible local effects are not directly relevant to the vehicle
exhaust precursor emissions that are affected by TCMs. There are no EPA guideline
models or analysis techniques to judge the effects of reducing precursor emissions
upon PM-10 concentrations. Rollback is not applicable because of the non-linear
89058r2 9 A-ll
-------
effects of the atmospheric reactions that are involved in secondary participate
formation. EPA, together with those regions that cannot reach attainment with pri-
mary participate controls, has pledged to work to characterize secondary particle
formation (Woodard and Bauman, 1988).
Trade-offs between PM-10 reductions and increases that may result in other pollu-
tants, such as ozone and CO, must also be considered. For example, TCMs that
decrease PM-10 by re-routing traffic away from dusty areas may increase conges-
tion, thereby increasing emissions of VOC and CO. TCMs that reduce VMT reduce
emissions of both VOC and NOX (as well as exhaust PM-10); although VOC emission
reductions consistently lead to ozone reductions, NOX emission reductions can lead
to local ozone increases, with ozone decreases eventually occurring only further
downwind. Thus, depending on local conditions and the relative magnitudes of VOC
and NOX reductions, a TCM that unequivocally reduces PM-10 may have an ambigu-
ous effect on ozone.
Modeling Approaches
Three basic approaches can be used to model the air quality impacts of PM-10 emis-
sions reductions: use of an appropriate dispersion model alone, receptor modeling
techniques with rollback adjustments, and receptor and dispersion modeling com-
bined. In the second approach, a receptor model can be used together with some
form of linear rollback. Receptor models statistically analyze the composition of a
sample of ambient particulate matter to infer the relative contributions from a num-
ber of types of sources with known emissions composition. With these contributions
known, rollback can be used to re-scale the amounts contributed to reflect reduc-
tions in the source emissions. In the third approach, receptor and dispersion models
are used in combination to make source allocations; then the correctly allocated
sources are used with the dispersion model to predict control effects. EPA prefers
this approach to consider all sources and both averaging periods (O'Connor, 1988).
The receptor modeling element of the analysis is considered to be necessary as a
check on the emission rates, source description, and wind speeds and directions used
in the dispersion model. Ryan and co-workers (1989) present an example of the
'refinement of dispersion model inputs in which receptor model results are used as
guidance. The unaided use of dispersion models that is appropriate when analyzing
other pollutants may hot be appropriate for PM-10 analysis in specific situations
where there is high uncertainty in emission factors.
Receptor Modeling
The foremost receptor model is the Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) model, which has
been used in SIP analyses and other efforts since the late 1970s. CMB requires
extensive data bases of emission composition* -.- all the applicable source types.
8S058r2 9
;: I
-------
This requirement is not prohibitive since such data bases are available and have been
used in several modeling efforts (Watson et al., 1989). CMB also requires a data base
of ambient PM-10 measurements that is representative of peak concentration events
and that includes detailed composition data as-well as total PM-10 concentration.
However, CMB may not fully resolve ail source contributions. For example, source
composition profiles may be so similar for road dust and windblown soil dust as to
make it impossible for CMB to allocate those two sources separately (Cooper et al.,
1988). It is also impossible to distinguish between gasoline burned in on-road and off-
road vehicles. One approach to this problem is to include more tracer species or to
examine particle characteristics other than composition. One such study included
CO and NOX among the tracer species on which CMB based its analyses (Benedict
and Naylor, 1988).
Dispersion Modeling
The other method for performing source allocation is to use a dispersion model in
conjunction with CMB. The protocols for applying CMB and for reconciling CMB
with dispersion model results have already been used; see Ryan and co-workers (1988)
for a discussion of a demonstration SIP effort for Hayden, Arizona. These protocols
allow CMB and the dispersion model of choice to be evaluated against historical
measurements before they are used to predict the effects of control scenarios.
Two scales of dispersion modeling may be appropriate for PM-10 modeling in general
and TCM PM-10 modeling in particular. One is the urban-scale model, which looks at
the portion of ambient concentration that comes not from sources in the immediate
vicinity but from sources throughout the urban area. The other is the near-field (or
microscale) model, which looks only at the immediately neighboring sources. The
two models are usually distinct and are supported by different types of inventory
data.
EPA recommends the RAM or COM 2.0 dispersion model for urban-scale PM-10
analysis (EPA, 1986a). Other dispersion models that have been used for urban-scale
PM-10 modeling include a 3D Lagrangian model developed by Cass and Gray (Gray et
al., 1988) and the Urban Airshed Model (UAM). These modeling techniques have not
received EPA approval. The urban-scale models have certain general inventory
requirements in common. They need PM-iO emission inventories that are spatially
allocated to small sub-areas or grid ceils and that are broken down to hour-by-hour
emission rates for each cell. More details about the urban-scale air quality models
already listed are given in Table A-2.
In these gridded urban inventories, large point sources should be represented by their
actual plume parameters and locations in such an inventory. Minor point sources,
fugitive emissions, and mobile sources can be distributed into grid cells according to
the population or VMT in the grid cells or according to other appropriate indicators
for specific source categories. Historical data can be used to produce gridded urban
S905Sr2 9
A-13
-------
TABLE A-2. Sample applications of urban-scale air quality models to PM-10
problems.*
UAM; In addition to an emission inventory of the type already described, the
UAM requires gridded data bases of winds at several elevations, temperatures,
mixing heights, and other dispersion parameters, and spatially resolved ambient
concentrations to supply the initial and boundary ambient concentrations. The
UAM is used to model single episodes; it can model stagnation events and
m;ulti-day episodes since it tracks air parcel trajectories. The Maricopa
Association of Governments (Phoenix, Arizona) is currently using the UAM with
CMB to model primary PM-10 as part of its SIP analysis (Bird, 1989). Since the
UAM (which is usua. used to model ozone episodes) includes some of the
reactions involved in secondary par -utate formation, it
3 use the model to estimate seconds particulate
.is. This use of the UAM has not rec j. -ad EPA approval.
atmospheric chenr
is possible in theor
ambient concentrs
Cass and Gray 3D Lagrangian particle-in-cell model (Gray et al., 1988): This
model has been used with CMB by the South Coast Air Quality Management
District in southern California to model PM-lO dispersion and formation in the
1985 South Coast/Ventura County region. The model requires gridded three-
dimensional wind fields, spatially resolved aerometric data (from which hourly
nitrate and sulfate conversion rates are calculated), and a gridded inventory of
the type already discussed. The model was used with historical data to
calculate source apportionment transfer matrices of secondary sulfates,
nitrates, and organics for representative winter and summer months. Although
nonlinear photochemistry was used to calculate the precursor/secondary
relationships in the transfer matrices, the matrices were used in a linear
manner to relate predicted secondary concentrations to source controls. These
transfer matrices were used to estimate future baseline and SIP control
scenario PM-10 concentrations for annual and 2ft-hour averaging periods. Since
this SIP has not been reviewed by EPA, the adequacy of this linear estimate of
secondary PM-10 impacts has not been determined.
RAM; Currently, the Denver area is being modeled with the RAM model
(Graves, 1989). This methodology uses seasonal average meteorological data
and accepts as inputs (a) NOX to nitrate and SO2 to sulfate conversion factors,
and (b) inventory data for multiple sources. RAM does not follow trajectories
for more than one hour. An advantage of using RAM is its ability to calculate
24-hour average as well as annual concentrations. RAM has EPA-preferred
status for modeling multiple sources in urban areas, and is designed to calcu-
late short- and long-term averages.
*" Userl should check EPA's modeling guidelines (EPA, 1986a) to learn the
current status of each of these tools.
8905flr2 10
A-14
it-
-------
inventories for the episode(s) to be evaluated. Projections of population, VMT, fuel
consumption, construction and so on can be used to produce future baseline (no new
control) inventories. The amount of emissions contributed by each source category
must be tracked so that the reductions from control measures can be accurately
applied.
The vehicle-related portion of an urban-scale gridded inventory is generally con-
structed from VMT and vehicle speed data from an urban traffic planning model.
Some of the models in common use for traffic planning purposes include UTPS,
MINUTP, EMME2, and TRANPLAN. (See main guidance document text for a more
complete discussion.) A traffic planning model that is to be used for TCM analysis
should be able to directly address ail of the types of TCMs that might be con-
sidered. For example, it should consider the modal split of traffic (the split between
public transit, one-person vehicle use, and so on) so that ride-share and transit sys-
tem upgrades can be explicitly evaluated. Traffic planning models usually predict
only ADT (average daily traffic) and average peak and off-peak speeds for each
major roadway in the system. Traffic counts or survey information on the timing of
different trip types must be used to generate hourly traffic values. Since much road
dust comes from minor (unpaved) roadways, these should be explicitly represented in
the traffic planning network if possible.
The second type of PM-10 modeling that may be needed is the near-field (or micro-
scale) model. The type of "hot spot" most likely to be affected by a TCM is either a
heavily traveled intersection in an inherently dusty area, or an unpaved parking lot
downwind of the center of town and of the urban PM-10 emissions. Microscale
models require intersection- or facility-specific traffic data and emission factors on
an hourly basis. Most of them use this type of input to internally generate their own
microscale emission inventories as part of the process of calculating ambient con-
centration impacts.
One of the difficulties of modeling the effects of TCMs on a "hot spot" as well as on
the urban area is the problem of arriving at microscaie traffic scenarios that are
consistent with each other and with the urban-scale traffic scenarios. Intersection
models can be particularly sensitive to the number of cars in the idle queue in the
intersection in a given hour, although this sensitivity is reduced by the 24-hour mini-
mum averaging period used for PM-10 analyses. Some different levels of analysis for
various traffic facilities have been detailed by the Transportation Research Board
(TRB, 1985); California-specific parameters are also available (ITS, 1985). A report
from the National Cooperative Highway Research Program discusses some tech-
niques for linking urban traffic scenarios with project traffic studies (Pedersen and
Samdahl, 1982).
To our knowledge, TCM PM-10 analyses have not to date included microscale anal-
yses. Two of the models that could be used in such an analysis include the following:
890S8r2 9
A-15
-------
CALINE3 is the EPA preferred roadway model in the EPA Modeling Guidelines
(EPA, 198&L). This model requires inputs of the roadway (or other "hot spot")
geometry, receptor locations, and hourly meteorology, emission factors, traffic
volume and speed, and background concentrations. The emission factors can be
obtained from MOBILES, MOBPART, and/or road dust emission factor calcula-
tions. CALINE3 does not include a specific intersection submodel (Benson,
1979,1980)1
APRAC-3 is an urban/microscale traffic emissions/dispersion model that is
listed in the EPA Guidelines, but does not have preferred status. It requires an
"extensive" traffic inventory to estimate contributions from several scales—
extraurban, intraurban, and local (street canyon). It also uses hourly meteor-
ology and appropriate emission factors.
890S8r2 9
A-16
-------
Appendix B
ADDITIONAL RECOMMENDED REFERENCES
stoser»
-------
-------
Appendix B
ADDITIONAL RECOMMENDED REFERENCES
Technical Analyses
Purposet Review Previously Published TCM-Related Guidance
Overview TCM Guidance Published by EPA
1. "Transportation-Air Quality Planning Guidelines" (and appendices). U.S.
EPA and U.S. DOT; June 1978. This document overviews SIP policy
regarding transportation controls, identifies TCM evaluation criteria, and
generally discusses the process by which TCMs should be chosen and
adopted (e.g., which government and public officials to include, what pro-
gress reports to file).
2. Transportation System Management: An Assessment of Impacts."
UMTA-VA-06-0047. Prepared by F. A. Wagner and K. Gilbert for the
Office of Policy and Program Development, Urban Mass Transportation
Administration, U.S. DOT, in cooperation with the U.S. EPA. November
1978. Classifies management actions and, for each class, calculates how a
major multiyear application of the measures would affect vehicle miles
traveled and vehicle hours traveled. Six working papers are included
describing experience with specific actions.
3. "How to Prepare the Transportation Portion of Your State Air Quality
Implementation Plan." Technical Guidance of the U.S. DOT, Federal
Highway Administration, with the cooperation of the U.S. EPA. November
1978 (reprinted February 1979). This document, though outdated, is a
comprehensive guide to preparing an emissions inventory, determining
growth factors to project emissions activity, estimating needed emissions
controls to meet NAAQS, and calculating the emissions benefits derived
from each measure.
4. Transportation Air Quality Analysis—Sketch Planning Methods" (Volumes
1 and 2). EPA 400/1-800-00la and b. Prepared by Cambridge Systematic:,
Inc. for the U.S. EPA; December 1979. Volume i describes sketch planning
s»osari
-------
rav
methodologies to evaluate TCMs' air quality effects (techniques to analyze
travel demand impacts, facility operations, emissions impacts). Volume 2
illustrates the" use of these techniques through case studies.
EPA-Published Guidance Specific to Individual Measures
5. "Air Quality Impacts of Transit Improvements, Preferential Lane, and
Carpool/Vanpool Programs." EPA 400/2-78-002a. Prepared for the U.S.
EPA in cooperation with the U.S. DOT; March 1978. Addresses, at a
sketch planning level of analysis, how to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of
these measures.
6. "Transit Improvement, Preferential Lane, and Carpool Programs, An Anno-
tated Bibliography of Demonstration and Analytical Experience." EPA
400/2-78-002b. Prepared for the U.S. EPA in cooperation with the U.S.
DOT; March1978. Provides an annotated bibliography of useful reports
describing the use and cost-effectiveness of these strategies to lower
emissions, improve air quality, reduce energy consumption, and mitigate
noise impacts.
Related Guidance Materials
7. "Traveler Response to Transportation System Changes." Second Edition.
Prepared by R. H. Pratt and 3. N. Copple for the U.S. DOT, Federal High-
way Administration, Office of Highway Planning, Urban Planning
, Division. July 1981. Summarizes available literature on experiences with
nine broad TCM categories; also includes an annotated bibliography of
important references for each category.
8. "Measures of Effectiveness for TSM Strategies." FHWA/RD-81/177. Pre-
pared by C. M. Abrams, 3. F. DiRenzo, S. A. Smith, and R. A. Feriis for
the U.S. DOT. Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research and
Development. December 1981. Reviews and categorizes TSMs; discusses
TSM impacts and methods of estimating these impacts.
9. "Transit Project Planning Guidance: Estimation of Energy and Air Quality
Impacts.11 Draft. Prepared by M. Jacobs and P. W. Shuldiner for the U.S.
DOT; May 1984. Includes information on estimating motor vehicle opera-
ting emissions and resulting pollutant concentrations.
10. "Traffic Mitigation Reference Guide. A Review of Options Available to
the Public and Private Sectors." Prepared by C. Brittle, N. McConnell,
and S. 6'Hare for the Oakland, California, Metropolitan Transportation
Commission and the U.S. DOT, Office of the Secretary of Transportation.
ttosari
B-2
-------
December 1984. Covers traffic mitigation options for developers,
employers, and cities; building mitigation policies into local city regula-
tions; and financing mitigation programs.
11. "National Ridesharing Demonstration Program: Comparative Evaluation
Report." Final Report. UMTA-MA-06-0049-85-1. Prepared by R. Booth
and R. Waksman for the U.S. DOT, Research and Special Programs
Administration, Transportation Systems Center. August 1985. Provides
detailed analyses of five sites where rideshare programs have been imple-
mented.
12. "Transportation Management for Corridors and Activity Centers: Oppor-
tunities and Experiences." Final Report. DOT-I-86-21. Prepared by the
Office of Planning, U.S. DOT, Federal Highway Administration. May
1986. Focuses on case studies of transportation management strategies
for corridors and activity centers; identifies specific strategies for poten-
tial application in other areas.
Purpose; Understanding EPA Requirements and Guidelines
1. "State Implementation Plans; Approval of Post-1987 Ozone and Carbon
Monoxide Plan Revisions for Areas Not Attaining the National Ambient
Air Quality Standards, Notice." Vol. 52 Federal Register, pp. 45044-
45122. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 24 November 1987.
Contains criteria for EPA approval of TCM strategies; deadlines and
guidance for overall ozone and carbon monoxide attainment requirements.
2. U.S. EPA/U.S. DOT Transportation-Air Quality Planning Guidelines and
Appendices. June 1978. These documents, though out of date with respect
to funding, deadlines, and implementation requirements, provide good
background material on planning processes that emphasize interagency
coordination.
3. "Emission Inventory Requirements for Post-1987 Ozone State Implementa-
tion Plans." EPA-450/4-88-019. Prepared by D. C. Misenheimer, Techni-
cal Support Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. December 1988.
4. "Emission Inventory Requirements for Post-1987 Carbon Monoxide State
Implementation Plans." EPA-450/4-88-020. Prepared by T. N. Braverman,
Technical Support Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. December 1988.
890S8rl 17
B-3
-------
5. "Example Emission Inventory Documentation for Post-1987 Ozone State
implementation Plans (SIPs)." EPA-450/4-89-018. U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. October 1989.
,' 1!' - ' ' '! ; i •' ",i it .. ': • ' i .
' * ;,„ ',, , ,
Purpose; TCM Screening
See documents referred to in Table 2-4.
Purpose; Traffic Effects Analyses
1. A transportation demand model from which vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
and speeds can be estimated with necessary spatial and temporal resolu-
tion All areas with metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) will have
access to UTPS or an equivalent traffic demand modeling system.
2 For areas without transportation demand modeling tools, sketch planning
• documSIs for Transportation analyses. The primary air quality-related
reference is:
'!"', *' i,1 , •. , •• i , .'!.,. "ii
a. "transportation Air Quality Analysis, Sketch Planning Methods
(Volumes 1 and 2)." EPA 400/1-800-OOla and b. Prepared by
Cambridge Systematics, Inc., for the Office of Transportation and
Land Use Policy, U.S. Environmental Protection agency. December
1979.
3." Other relevant reports include:
c
ansit Corridor Analysis, A Manual Sketch Planning
UMTA-MD-06-0046-79-1. Prepared by M. M. Carter, R. H. Watkms,
3. b. OTDoherty, M. Iwabuchi, G. W. Schultz, and 3. 3. Hinkie. Pre-
pared for the Department of Transportation, Urban Mass Transporta--
tion Administration, Office Planning Methods & Support. April 1979,
and
"Quick Response Urban Travel Estimation Techniques and Transfer-
2le Parameters, User's Guide." National Cooperative Highway
Research Program Report 187. Prepared by A. B. Sosslau, A. B.
Hassam, M. M. Carter, and G. V. Wickstrom. Prepared for Transpor-
tation Research Board, National Research Council. 1978.
«»OS8rl 17
B-A
-------
These documents offer techniques to manually assess the impacts of
TCMs; when applying the documents' methodologies, the most recent data
available should be used (e.g., data relating to trip generation rates,
household person trips, trip production estimates).
Purpose; Evaluating Emission Effects
1. "EPA Regional Workshops for Ozone and Carbon Monoxide State Imple-
mentation Plan Emission Inventory Development." These documents are
available from EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Technical Support Division, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
2. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors; Volume II; Mobile
Sources. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards. AP-42, Fourth Edition. September 1985 (provides
information for estimating sulfur oxides (SOX) emissions factors for high-
way vehicles; SOX control is not addressed in this guidance document).
(Consult regional EPA office for most recent version of this document.)
3. Emissions modeling tools: MOBILES for ail non-California applications;
EMFAC and either DTIM (for gridded emissions) or BURDEN (for county-
wide emissions) for California applications.
4. "Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation, Volume IV: Mobile
Sources." EPA-450/*-81-026d (Revised). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (Technical Support
Division), and Emission Control Technology Division (Office of Mobile
Sources). December 1988.
5. "Guidance for the Preparation of Quality Assurance Plans for O3/CO SIP
Emission Inventories." EPA-450/4-88-023. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina. December 1988.
Purpose: Evaluating Air Quality Effects
1. Air quality model guidance for carbon monoxide analyses. Examples:
a. "CAUNE3—A Versatile Dispersion Model for Predicting Air Pollu-
tant Levels near Highways and Arterial Streets." Report No.
FHWA/CA/TL-79/23. Interim Report. Prepared by P. E. Benson for
the Office of Transportation Laboratory, California Department of
Transportation. November 1979.
B-5
-------
b. "Carbon Monoxide Hot Spot Guidelines, Volumes Mil." EPA-450/3-
78-033, 034, 035. Prepared by T. P. Midurski for the U.S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
1978.
c. "Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis,
Volume 9 (Revised): Evaluating Indirect Sources." EPA-450/4-78-
001. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air, Noise,
arid Radiation; Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards;
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. 1978.
'"'III! " i „ "'lit' ' ,M ""' " " i i ,'!!ii , i , •! '!""', ,1, '" , ''! ''' ' , ,
2. Air quality model guidance for ozone air quality analyses using either the
Empirical Kinetics Modeling Approach (EKMA) or the Urban Airshed Model
(UAM). References:
a. For EKMA: "Procedures for Applying City-Specific EKMA." EPA-
450/4-89-012. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Of fie» of Air
Quality Planning and Standards. July 1989.
b. For UAM: Formal EPA guidance is due to be released by late 1990:
currently available users' guides and systems manuals include
• "User's Guide for the Urban Airshed Model. Volume I: User's
Manual for UAM(CB-IV)." SYSAPP-90/OlSa. Prepared by
Systems Applications, Inc., San Rafael, California. June 1990.
• "User's Guide for the Urban Airshed Model. Volume II:
Preprocessors and Postprocessors for the UAM Modeling
System." SYSAPP-90/01Sb. Prepared by Systems Applications,
Inc., San Rafael, California. June 1990.
•-••' "User's Guide for the Urban Airshed Model. Volume III: User's
fcUmual for the Diagnostic Wind Model (Version 1.1)." SYSAPP-
90/018c. Prepared by Systems Applications, Inc., San Rafael,
Calif ornia. May 1990.
• "User's Guide for the Urban Airshed Model. Volume IV: User's
Guide for the Emissions Preprocessor System." SYSAPP-
90/018d. Prepared by Systems Applications, Inc., San Rafael,
California. 3une 1990.
B-6
p3
w
bl
-------
Transportation Monitoring for Air Quality *
Deakin, E. 1983. "Transportation and Air Quality Programs: Case Studies on Moni-
toring and Decision Processes, and Recommendations on EPA Assistance."
Report to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX, Institute of
Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley.
Deakin, E. 198*. "Monitoring the Effectiveness of Transportation Air Quality Pro-
grams" (ITS-RR-85-8), Dec. 198*, *6 pp. Institute of Transportation Studies,
University of California, Berkeley.
Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 198*. "Monitoring Transportation/Air Quality
Measures: Improving the State of the Practice." Report to U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency.
Harvey, G. W. 198*. "Growth Monitoring and Decision-Making for Transportation-
Air Quality Planning." Report to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Region IX, Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University.
New Financing Strategies
Barker, M. (ed.). 198*. Rebuilding America's Infrastructure; An Agenda for the
1980s, Duke University Press, Durham, North Carolina. (Includes Choate, Pat,
and Susan Walter, America in Ruins and Vaughan, Roger, Rebuilding America!
Financing Public Works in the 1980s).
Bauman, G., and W. H. Ethier. 1987. Development exactions and impact fees: A
survey of American practices. Law and Contemporary Problems, 50(0:51-67.
Cervero, R. 1987. Paying for off-site road improvements through exactions and
special assessments: Lessons from California. Public Administration Review,
*8(1):531-5*1.
Colman, S. B., et al. 1987. "A Survey and Analysis of Traffic Impact Fee Experience
in the U.S." Institute of Transportation Engineers District 6.
Deakin, E., and W. L. Garrison. 1985. "Private Sector Funding for Urban Transpor-
tation: Some Comments on Public-Private Partnerships" (ITS-WP-85-9). Insti-
tute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley.
Deakin, E. 1987. "Use of Special Assessments for Transportation Demand Manage-
ment Programs." Paper prepared for Orange County Transportation Commis-
sion.
81058rl 17 B-7
-------
Duncan, i. B.t et al. 1986. Drafting impact fee ordinances: 30. Implementation and
administration. Zoning and Planning Law Report, 9(8):57-63.
Johnson, "G. T., and L. A. Hoel. 1987. Review of financing options for highways and
transit. 3. Transportation Engineering, 113(0:72-83.
Kirlin, 3. J. 1985. "Bargaining for Development Approval." Urban Land,
Knack, R. 198*. How impact fees are working in Broward County. Planning,
5
-------
Deakin, E. 1987. Transportation System Management Ordinances: An Overview."
Paper prepared for the Fourth Annual Association of Commuter Transportation
Southern California Regional Conference, Long Beach, California.
Deakin, E. 1986. The Pleasanton, California, Trip Reduction Ordinance: Can It
Work?" Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley
(UCB-ITS-WP-86-3).
Schreffler, E. N. 1986. Transportation management organizations: An emerging
public/private partnership. Transportation Planning and Technology,
10<4):257-266.
Weiner, E. 198*. Devolution of the federal role in urban transportation.
3. Advanced Transportation, 18(2): 113-1
Political Considerations
Deakin, E. 1988. The Politics of Exactions." In R. Alterman (ed.), Private Supply
of Public Services, New York University Press.
Deakin, E. 1989. "Market and Intervention Failures in Transport Policy: Case Study
on the United States." Report prepared for the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development, Paris.
DeGrove, J. M. 198*. Land, Growth and Politics. APA Planners Press, Washington,
D.C.
Huff, N. 1981. "Negotiating Rezoning Conditions in Fairfax County, Virginia."
Urban Land, November 1981, pp. 13-15.
Popper, F. 1981. The Politics of Land Use Reform. University of Wisconsin Press,
Madison, Wisconsin.
•Popper, F. 1988. Understanding American land use regulation since 1970: A
revisionist interpretation. Journal of the American Planning Association,
5
-------
ill,!" ' :' I'j!1*1!1''
-------
Appendix C
TCM PROFILES
This appendix profiles real-world examples of TCM implementation. The profiles
include (1) TCM descriptions, (2) a TCM screening effort, (3) TCMs targeted to ozone
and carbon monoxide problems, (ft) a sample travel demand modeling effort, and (5)
sample evaluations of motor vehicle emissions changes due to specific measures.
e«osBPi is
-------
s**-^
-------
PROFILE 1
Problems:
Solutions
PROFILE: Trip Reduction Ordinances (TROs) in Small Areas"
Location: Pleasanton, California (site of one of the country's first
successful TROs). Pleasanton is a small but fast-growing
northern California city of approximately 52,000 people. The
city went from 38 medium-sized employers in 1985 to over 100
in 1988. Since 1984, total employment has grown over 65
percent, and population has increased over 35 percent.
Business parks were proposed in 1982; city wanted to avoid
traffic congestion problems while promoting growth. Few
traffic problems existed when the ordinance idea was first
considered.
Development of a Transportation Systems Management
Ordinance. A citizens advisory committee recommended
adoption of a traffic control law; the city council directed city
staff to draft the law with cooperation of local employers and
developers. Under the law, adopted October 198*, employers
are required to (1) respond to the annual Transportation Survey,
(2) medium-sized employers must implement information
programs to educate employees on commute options, (3) large
employers and complexes must design and implement a TSM
program to cut (by 1988) peak-hour vehicle trips by 45 percent
(by 1988, average reductions for large employers were 41.5
percent). The city is reconstructing four interchanges on
interstate highways; it has a new traffic control computer and
a transportation systems manager? it began (in 1986) a local
transit service; and it is improving arterial lanes and adding
bicycle lanes.
The law applies equally, across the board, to all employers and
developers. The city has committed staff and dollars to the
TRO effort—staff train private sector coordinators, prepare
marketing materials, and provide personal assistance. A
transportation task force (with city and private sector
representatives) fosters communication about the TRO and
projects that work well.
Gilpin, 1989
Comments:
Source?
S«OStrl IS
C-l
-------
PROFILE 2
Location:
Problem:
Actions:
Regulatory
Provisions:
PROFILE: Trip Reduction Ordinance for a Large Urban Area
South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD)
(greater Los Angeles, California metropolitan area).
Country's number one ozone problem area. Severe traffic
congestion problems with forecasted worsening conditions.
11 !;'"'!!!li "i , ,• • " ' , ,' !
11 December 1987 SCAQMD board approval of Regulation XV,
a regional indirect source and work trip reduction ordinance.
1 July 1988—implementation of "Reg XV begins.
Regulates (over a phased schedule with full implementation by
1 January 1990) businesses with 100 or more employees! who
arrive at work between 6:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m.;
approximately 8,000 businesses are affected. Requirements
include: (1) submittai of plans by employers to achieve average
vehicle ridership (AYR) of from 1.3 to 1.75, depending upon
location (current AYR is approximately 1.13); (2) plans will be
prepared by a trained transportation coordinator; (3) plans must
include coordinator designation, a verifiable estimate of
worksite^ existing AYR, current and future measures to meet
target AYR within 12 months of plan approval.
Implementation:
i) 11
Other Comments:
.it
Sources:
Beginning 180 days after Board adoption of Reg XV, District
issued notices to businesses to submit plans. Employers had 90
toys from receipt of notice to submit a plan. Plan approval or
disapproval was within 60 days of plan submittai (employers had
30 days to resubmit disapproved plans). Annual plan updates and
resubmittals are required. Employers will not be penalized if they
exhibit a "good faith" effort and comply with all plan provisions,
but they still fail to achieve the AYR.
Program marketing is an essential component of
implementation; the SCAQMD has completed over 100
presentations to businesses throughout the air quality
management district. To better manage plan review, the
SCAQMD is staggering the implementation requirements. In an
attempt to provide businesses with maximum flexibility in trip
reduction/rideshare program design, the SCAQMD has not
outlined explicit criteria for submitting an "approvable Reg XV
plan." As of March 1989,35 to 40 percent of all submitted
plans have been disapproved.
Dunlap, 1989; SCAQMD, 1987.
89058rl IS
C-2
-------
PROFILE 3
PROFILE: Bicycle Parking Program at an Urban CBD Office Plaza
Location:
Problem:
Actions:
Comments:
Source:
Empire State Office Plaza, Albany, New York (a state office
facility).
Need to promote bicycle use.
Questionnaires are mailed to office workers to establish (a)
the number of bicycle riders at the Empire State Plaza, (b)
where they work, (c) where they begin their commute. Data
are used to determine where bicycle parking facilities should
be placed. The facilities are secure, enclosed areas; riders are
given keys; visitor bicycle parking is provided by front and rear
locking bicycle racks. Shower facilities are provided for men
and women.
Facilities have been operating since June 1988. The program is
a pilot project to determine whether similar facilities will be
provided at other state office sites. More information is
available from the Division of Albany Utilities, Corning II
Tower, Room 3980, Empire State Plaza, Albany, New York
12242.
CENTRANS, 1988.
C-3
69051 15
-------
PROFILE
PROFILE: Using the Freeway Shoulder Lane During Peak-Hour Traffic
Location:
Problem:
Solution:
Results:
Source:
Honolulu, Hawaii. H-l Freeway between the Pearl City and
Stadium Interchanges.
Morning peak-hour traffic congestion on central freeway
system serving the CBD.
Rather than widen the freeway, the shoulder of a two-mile
stretch of the inbound lanes of the H-l Freeway was modified
for use as a travel lane. The lane is utilized from 5:00 a.m. to
8:30 a.m., Monday through Friday. Two emergency pull-outs
were constructed to assist disabled vehicles. A .tow truck
service was contracted to remove disabled vehicles during the
morning commute period.
Increased traffic capacity (from five to six travel lanes during
the morning commute) saves motorists approximately 15
minutes of travel time for average commutes.
CENTRANS, 1988.
C-4
ItOSIrl IS
-------
PROFILE 5
Location:
Problems:
Goals:
Actions:
Effects
PROFILE: Portland, Oregon's Transit Mall, Constructed 1975-1977
An 11-block area of downtown Portland, Oregon (the city of
Portland is part of the Portland-Vancouver Air Quality
Maintenance Area). The city of Portland's 1980 population was
approximately 400,000.
Portland in the 1970s was experiencing decreasing mass transit use,
increasing automotive use, increasing traffic and parking
difficulties, and a desire among civic leaders to improve the
aesthetic quality Of the downtown area (e.g., many historic
buildings had been torn down to increase surface parking).
To provide more efficient transportation for commuters and
shoppers, and to revitalize the downtown area.
Local agencies including the Columbia Region Association of
Governments and the Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation
District (Tri-Met), with funding from the federal Urban Mass
Transportation Administration, constructed a transit mall over a
26-month period during 1975-1977. The mall was designed to carry
up to 200 buses per hour in each direction (up to 260 buses per naif -
hour if simultaneous signal systems are installed). When complete,
it provided widened sidewalks, two continuous 12-foot bus lanes,
two bus loading areas on each block of the mall (most with rain
shelters), and a "fare-less square" providing free bus service to
downtown area destinations. Simultaneous to the transit mall
actions (1975), Portland adopted a downtown parking and
circulation policy that placed a ceiling on the number of parking
spaces and established stringent maximum parking space ratios for
new development projects.
Overall, businesses and pedestrians favor the mall. Instant traffic
improvements were realized when the mall opened in December,
1977. By 1980, the mall was credited with reducing the Portland
area's total VMT by 4.9 percent, and the downtown area's VMT by
2.3 percent, over levels that would have existed without the mall.
Important for the mall's success was Portland* supportive parking
policy. An air quality modeling analysis compared 1980 traffic
volumes assigned to with-mall and without-mail street networks,
and assessed HC, CO, NOx, and suspended particulate emissions
changes. Estimates indicated that without the mall, some
emissions would have been higher in the mall's immediate vicinity—
CO by 600 to 1,400 percent, HC by 250 percent. Other emissions
changes are more difficult to generalize: NOx emissions would
have been somewhat less (2 percent) on some streets and higher on
continued
C-5
-------
PROFILE 5 (concluded)
PROFILES Portland, Oregon's Transit Mall, Constructed 1975-1977
Sources
others (3 to 50 percent); and particulate emissions changes were
mixed. Overall, HC, CO, and NOx emissions on mall streets were
reduced. However, to the extent that VMT was not reduced, these
emissions have been shifted to other streets (though with fewer
people directly exposed to the pollutants).
Harris, 1989; Dueker et ah, 1982.
C-6
-------
PROFILE 6
PROFILE: Developer Impact Fees to Mitigate Traffic
in a Smail-to-Medium-Sized Area
Location: Oxnard, California (western Ventura County in southern
California). Oxnard has grown from a small city in the 1960s
to one with a population over 120,000.
Problems: Projected revenue shortfall of $40 million needed to support
roadway improvements for a forecasted 440,000 new daily
vehicle trips by the year 2000 (or, a shortfall of about $90 per
trip); lack of a long-term general plan that systematically
considered roadway needs; traffic congestion rapidly exceeding
citizens' tolerance; and stagnating growth due to traffic
circulation problems.
Solutions: Development of a circulation impact fee and "paveout"
policy. The paveout policy requires developers to fund
construction of portions of the arterial system. Impact fees
are collected when building permits are issued; fees of
approximately $90 per trip generated by the development are
charged to mitigate the financial shortfall. Basis for
calculations are trip generation rates developed by the
Institute of Transportation Engineers and by the California
Department of Transportation.
Other Comments:
Source;
Policy supports TCMs by encouraging a reduction in projected
trip generation from development sites. Data gathering to
support the policy is time consuming. Ordinance is being
adjusted to address two problems: (1) gas stations and fast
food restaurants attract a high number of trips, but these are
trips shared with other trip-attractors; and (2) commercial
development attracts more trips than office development, but
offices generate peak-hour trips.
Kamhi, 1985.
8905*rl
C-7
-------
PROFILE 7
Location:
Problems:
Actions:
Effects
Source:
PROFILE: Minnesota's 1-39* HOV Lane (the "Sane Lane")
Western suburbs of the Twin Cities (Minneapolis and St. Paul),
Minnesota area.
Need to introduce riders to the HOV lane concept, and to
alleviate congestion problems during reconstruction of the
roadway (Highway 12) into 1-39*. Carpooiing in the Twin Cities
suburbs was not extensive prior to the HOV lane's
-' • Implementation.
,. , . i|.
A 1983 study by the Metropolitan Transit Commission
- (Minnesota Rideshare) found that 60 percent of the people
using Highway 12 to commute to downtown Minneapolis would
consider carpooling if an HOV lane were available. A Corridor
Management Team was assembled to promote and coordinate
the HOV lane development and implementation. Marketing
programs were developed; arrangements for aggressive lane
enforcement were made; express bus service was planned for
the HOV lane; "before" data on ridership, vehicle occupancy,
and travel times were collected; and an interim parking lot
(free to carpoolers) was built in downtown Minneapolis. On 19
November 1985, the Minnesota DOT opened an interim four-
mile "two-plus11 HOV lane on Highway 12/1-39*. The "Sane
Lane" Is a physically separated, single reversible lane in the
median of a four lane, signalized highway.
First-year operating results showed the lane to be a success:
the lane was carrying 1,600 people in 540 vehicles during the
miming peak hour (mixed lanes were carrying only 1,000
people in 890 vehicles). Total carpools in all lanes increased
129% during the a^n. peak hour; bus ridership increased 16% in
the morning (6:00-9:00) and 20% in the afternoon (3:00-7:00);
46% of carpoolers and 9% of the express bus riders previously
drove alone; overall vehicle occupancy went from 1.17 to 1.29
during the morning peak hour; average time savings were
approximately 8 minutes (time savings were greatly increased
in bad weather); the free downtown carpooler lots were filled
within a few months of opening; only known accidents in the
lane were minor and related to severe winter weather or drunk
drivers hitting the closed gates at night.
SRF, 1987.
?i
|SOSIrl 15
C-8
-------
PROFILE 8
Location:
Problems:
Goals:
PROFILE: Parking Management and Shuttle Service Operations in
Orlando, Florida (the "Meter Eater" System)
Orlando, Florida CBD and arterial streets leading to
Actions:
Effects:
Source:
Congestion related to peak-hour home-to-work trips.
To increase auto occupancy and transit ridership; reduce
number of autos, demand for parking facilities, and energy
consumption; and improve air quality and traffic flow. Shuttle
service targeted to encourage long-term peripheral and fringe
parking adjacent to the CBD.
In February 1982, the city implemented a transportation
management program which included traffic signal timing
improvements, transit improvements, ridesharing, parking
supply management, and alternative work schedules. The
downtown park-and-ride shuttle system was one of the
program's most innovative components. One route connected
public-owned parking facilities adjacent to the CBD with local
businesses and state and local government offices in the CBD
(operated morning and evening peak periods). A second route
(operating midday) started in the fall of 1982 and connected
downtown office facilities and eating establishments.
Employers were encouraged to participate by offering
employees incentives to ride the shuttle. In October 1983, the
Meter Eater trolley buses were made part of the regional
transit system. Additional Friday midday services were also
provided to senior citizen highrises.
Ridership of the peak period shuttle rose from 1,200 persons
per week 2 months after start-up, to 2,000 persons per week
within 4 months (June 1982). Combined with the midday
shuttle, ridership was 3,750 persons per week by February
198*. 64 percent of those using the shuttle did not drive
through the CBD to park in the peripheral lots (those that did
may have added to CBD traffic congestion). The system's
revenue/cost ratio is approximately 40 percent.
FHWA, 1986.
6«058rl IS
C-9
-------
PROFILE 9
Actions:
Results:
PROFILE: One Urban Area's Approach to Selecting Potential TCMs
Location: Toledo, Ohio (population of approximately 340,000).
Forecasted severe congestion on major arteriais and on
freeways and expressways by the year 2010. Forecasted budget
limitations to address problems.
Reviewed TCM literature to select potential strategies
applicable to Toledo; formulated demand management
strategies to address forecasted peak-period traffic congestion;
computer simulated year 2010 peak-period traffic under each
COI|trol strategy; evaluated strategies' cost-effectiveness; and
recommended TCMs for adoption.'
Literature review: reviewed (1> Ottawa, Canada's successful
busway system with priority bus lanes (over 30% of all person-
trips in the region and 60% of all CBD-destined peak-hour trips
made on transit); (2) HOY lane successes in Washington D.C.
and Houston (40% to 70% of persons moved during inbound a.m.
peak are in multi-occupant vehicles); (3) "timed-transfer" bus
systems in Edmonton, Canada that link employment, shopping,
and residential areas (cutting travel times 20%); (») successful
linking of on-site transit facilities with shopping malls and
residential development (again, in both Ottawa and Edmonton;
travel times dropped 20%); (5) the Singapore area's peak-period
road-pricing/vehicle-licensing plan (lowering by 73% cars
entering the core area during the peak period, and increasing
carpobling by 60%); (6) electronic toll-charging facilities (e.g.,
planned demonstration along the Dallas North Tollway).
Strategy formulation: developed base case forecast and three
alternative demand management strategies; each strategy an
extremeSvMion ofpolicies that might be adopted.
Strategy I: "transit preferential* Including express bus
service on reserved rights-of-wayi new freeway lanes
reserved for-transit; park and ride lots; feeder bus
services; 50% reduction in peak-period transit fares;
doubling of cost to use auto for peak-period commute.
Strategy 2: "rictesharingrpreferential" including system-
wide implementation of HOV lanes; all new freeway lanes
reserved for HOVs; pricing policies same as in "transit
strategy. [ i ''
continued
C-10
-------
PROFILE 9 (concluded)
Strategy 3: "transit/ridesharing-preferential" covering a
combination of the first two strategies.
Computer simulation: base case and three control strategies
simulated using computerized travel- demand models. Analyses
focused on work trips. Separate mode choice model runs were
made for each strategy-but only for work trips (assumption
that nonwork trips were not substantially affected). Daily
travel was broken down, by percent, into different trip
purposes (using Sosslau et aL, 1978); then peak-period travel
was estimated by taking appropriate percentages of daily
travel. Work trip and total trip reductions were estimated by
the mode choice model. Highway performance was estimated
by running a traffic assignment model with the mode choice
model's results.
Cost-effectiveness: considered (1) highway user costs-based
on vehicle operating and accident costs; (2) highway facUity
costs-for lane widening and new faculties; (3) parking costs
for commuters—capital and maintenance; (*) transit costs-
extra buses, park and ride lots, and ramp metering required to
service peak users (operation and maintenance costs); and (5)
employer and agency costs—for rideshare programs and
commuter parking management programs.
Recommendations: based on average volume-to-capacity
ratios, VMT per work person trip, transit system cost per rider,
and costs per work trip, analysts recommended a strategy
combining rideshare and transit measures, given opportunities
to further study potential impacts and to implement
demonstration programs.
Source,- Decorla-Souza, 1988.
is
C-ll
-------
PROFILE 10
PROFILE: Transportation Controls in a Large Urban Area
to Attain the Carbon Monoxide Standard
1 ........ iiii ' , i ..... , ..... • , •• ,„ • ' ". . ; •. ,, . . • •. i
' ' II , ' II , .. ,n ....... '. li " I .. ', 'il1
New York City. New York has had to take creative and drastic
%epS to attempt to control traffic; their traffic control
|xpferlences, though unique, shed light on potentially effective
Strategies for other areas.
Location:
Problems:
Solutions:
Results:
Source:
111
8>058rl 15
, . .. ..... ,, , , , . , , , .. . , . .
Severe traffic congestion and carbon monoxide (CO) problems. CO
hotspots are found throughout Manhattan CBD and along major
corridors leading to the CBD. Congestion includes a.m. and p.m.
"commute peaks* and a midday peak (10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m.)
resulting from an overload of taxis, livery cars, commercial
vehicles, and private cars.
The city implemented a Transportation Control Plan in 1973, but
worked particularly hard over the past decade to implement
effective controls. Measures implemented include: enhanced law
enforcement efforts plus a V7 percent reduction in traffic signs;
priority bus lanes on 15 major streets; numerous curb-side bus lanes
and a contra-f low bus lane; a bus transitway which limited curblane
use, through-movements, and on-street passenger loading/
offloading, the city also operates a taxi I&M program
.'(complements state's I&M program). In 1986 the city restricted
parking privileges for government staff-removing 200 spaces and
98 curbside locations. In the fall of 1987, the city began project
SMART (Strategies for Mobility, Access and Reduction of Traffic),
a voluntary no-drive program modeled after programs in Denver
and other cities. By 1992 Manhattan will have a computerized
traffic control system that will adjust traffic signals to meet
traffic conditions. Peripheral park and ride lots will be constructed
outside Manhattan. The city is also considering alternative fuels
use (it is testing methanol-f ueled buses) and (as a last resort)
congestion pricing strategies and car bans.
Parking management and priority bus services have trimmed illegal
parking 61 percent since 1981 and raised crosstown bus and taxi
speeds 30 percent with no adverse effects on adjacent streets.
However, small improvements in street speeds and capacities often
increase vehicle use on these streets. Drivers, rather than
changing lifestyles, become more congestion-tolerant. Measures
that work best and that will be emphasized through project SMART
include more enforcement, stricter illegal parking fines, and
voluntary reductions in vehicle use by individuals and businesses.
Sof flan et al., 1988.
C-12
•nrf
'tALli! r'lTll fl( 1H j"tir ,;'! illlili: !!i i.lt':
tflliit, (Sit;1.'SA '!ii>:,••!!*'•.. ;i ;\i IB v^ " ,'„> -,.;-: •> •
-------
PROFILE 11
PROFILE: Reducing Urban Ozone with TCMs, the Olympics Experience
Location:
Problem:
Actions:
Results
Sources:
The South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD), Los
Angeles, California (during the July-August 198* summer Olympic
Games).
Reducing normally congested traffic and high ozone levels during
the summer season.
Establishment of an interagency coordination center; a public
relations program to educate the driving public; a joint highway
patrol-department of transportation program to reduce truck
traffic during peak hours; a massive system surveillance and
monitoring program; development of 18 separate traffic
management plans to coordinate traffic at 24 Olympic activity
sites. Example elements included promotion of work schedule
changes, intensified
-------
PROFILE 12
Location:
Approach:
Data Collection
arid Model Input
Preparation:
Model Assembly
and Validation:
Travel
Forecasting:
PROFILE: Travel Demand Modeling by Oakland, California's
Metropolitan transportation Commission (MTC)
The MTC assists the Bay Area Air Quality Management District
IBAAQMD), which covers parts of nine counties in the San
Francisco'Bay Area. ' ' ' |
VMT forecasting using travel demand models.
The MTC has developed a comprehensive transportation demand
modeling tool, known as MTCFCAST-SO/81. MTCFCAST-80/81
(equivalent in concept to UTPS) comprises 21 separate models to
simulate residential travel behavior. Important steps and
assumptions used by the MTC to forecast travel demand include:
1. Document demographic/economic/land use projections as
prepared by the Association of Bay Area Governments
(ABAC).
::, : •::, •„„ * , „ • •••' ' ," •• „ „ '»•• • ii ih
2. Document exogenous modeling assumptions associated with
travel costs: gasoline and nongasoline auto
operations/maintenance costs, parking charges, transit fares.
3. Prepare zonal and network level-of-service inputs for model.
1. Assemble "observed* work and nonwork trip tables;
included data from the 1980 census, a 1981 MTC-sponsored
Small-scale household travel survey, and data from the Urban
Transportation Planning Package (UTPP) purchased from the
U.S. Bureau of the Census for the MTCs area.
2. Validate travel model 1980 base year simulations by
comparingsimulations to "observed" trip data and traffic and
transit counts.
3. Cross-check MTCFCAST-80/81 modeling results against other
travel demand models that use alternative algorithms (e.g.,
Fratar, Gravity, etc.; see Table 5-6 for a sample list of
alternative model approaches for each of the four traditional
transportation demand modeling steps).
1. Prepare forecasted trips and VMT based on projected
household, employment, population, and auto ownership
projections (e.g., MTCs San Francisco Bay Area projections
i
continued
1S
C-14
(M
.
*-<
-------
PROFILE 12 (concluded)
5.
show: population lagging behind jobs and consequent VMT
growth greater for work than for nonwork trips; household
sizes declining; therefore, trip rates per household may
decline as well; auto ownership near "saturation" levels for
ihdicatinS near universal auto
2. Conduct analyses for years 1980 and 2000.
3. Limit bulk of analysis to intra-regionai personal travel.
*. Divide home-based work trips into 3 groups: drive alone,
snared ride with two occupants, shared ride with three-oli
occupants. ^
us
U»
Because assignment process will not account for intra-zonal
trips, use an intra-zonal correction process.
Make estimates for intra-regional commercial and inter-
regional trips and VMT (this is the least formal of the
modeling techniques-ballpark approximations are generated).
Intra-regional commercial; apply Caltrans (California. State
Department of Transportation) estimates for "percent trucks
on state highways" for 1980 and current (1986) years to all
roads (state, local, highways)? assume 1986 "percent truck"
factors are valid for 2000; assume 52 percent growth in intra-
regional truck traffic from 1980 to 2000.
Inter-regional vehicle trips; use Caltrans1 annual traffic
"census" for 1980 and 1985 at regional "gateways" and
extrapolate the growth to the year 2000 (165 percent growth
in inter-regional VMT from 1980 to 2000); assume average
trip length of 40 miles for inter-regional trips for both 1980
and 2000.
Source:
Purvis, 1988a.
8t058rl IS
C-25
-------
Ill ; I ,'< ,. til
PROFILE 13
PROFILE: Estimating Current and Future Emissions from On-Road Motor Vehicles
Location:
Task: T'
Three-Step
Approach:
South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) (southern
California).
' «!" ; Hill1 lj, „ n ' " • ' , ' '",,1. • , n ii ' ' ' ' . '!, i ' i1. , I' :i'!l 'I
Estimating motor vehicle emissions.
I. Estimate traffic demand from existing and predicted land
use patterns; analysis yields traffic volumes.
Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), the
South Coast's regional transportation planning agency,
generates traffic demand predictions.
SCAG uses LARTS (a travel demand model equivalent to
UTPS) to analyze socioeconomic data and produce traffic
volumes. Submodels within LARTS analyze socioeconomics,
trip generation, trip distribution, mode choice, and trip
assignments.
2. Aggregate emission factors for individual vehicles into "fleet
representative" factors; analysis yields vehicle emissions
•• •-,;. factors.
California Air Resources Board (ARB) uses EMFAC (the
California equivalent to MOBILE) to generate vehicle
emission factors (for NOx, CO, TOG, ROG, exhaust
particulate matter, and tire wear particulates).
ARB uses BURDEN and fuel use totals to generate county-
level SOx and Pb emissions (counties use gridded VMT data to
grid SOx and Pb emissions).
3 Multiply vehicle volumes and emission factors to derive a
total mass emission rate for the study area (usually in tons
per day per pollutant).
• SCAG (with ARB) uses California Department of
Transportation software (DTIM) to geographically grid
emissions; DTIM combines traffic volume and speed outputs
from LASTS with emission factors from EMFAQ DTIM
outputs theseI emissions to grid cells (usually 5 km by 5 km).
"continued
ito5»ri
C-16
-------
PROFILE 13 (concluded)
DTIM also calculates cold start, hot start, and hot soak
emissions in each grid cell; it does this by using the "trip end"
information available from LARTS. DTIM also uses the total
number of vehicles in the ceils to allocate diurnal emissions ,
to grid ceils.
Source: Oliver et al.( 1987.
s»ostri is c~17
-------
PROFILE
PROFILE: Three of the TCM Analyses Conducted by the Maricopa Association of
Governments (MAG) for Maricopa County, Arizona
Location:
Maricopa County is in the south-central portion of Arizona and
includes the city of Phoenix.
General Approach: TCM analyses conducted for Maricopa County used the MAG
General Approacn. ^ {ransportation Model, calibrated according to 1980 travel
data, and implemented by the use of UTPS software provided by
the U.S. Department of Transportation. The model forecasted
daily traffic for a base year (1985) and various transportation
Scenarios in 1987, 1990,1995, and 2005. Updates to the highway
"networks used iri the model were based on the region's
Transportation Improvement Program (TIP); analyses were
conducted in conjunction with the Arizona Department of
Transportation.
Bicycling:
Approach estimated emissions changes due to replacing 1 percent
of all vehicle trips less than six miles with bicycle trips. Modeling
analysis covered:
1. Assumed average regional vehicle speed of 30 mph; therefore,
average travel of 12 minutes for six-mile trips.
2. Used output from gravity model (trip distribution step in the
travel demand modeling process) to determine the number of
person trips that were 12 minutes or less, broken down by
category-home based work (HBW), home based nonwork
(HBNW), nonhome based (NHB) (key to the analysis was
tapping the gravity model's output for trips based on expected
time of travel).
3 Converted person trips to vehicle trips by dividing person
trips by auto occupancy (e.g., 311,000 HBW person-trips,
divided by an average auto occupancy of 1.1 for HBW trips,
yields 283,000 vehicle trips).
$. One percent of the vehicle trips are assumed to be replaced
by bicycle trips.
5. Average trip length assumed to be three miles (half of six
miles); total VMTsavings calculated by multiplying vehicle
trips replaced by bicycles with average trip length.
6< Calculated VMT reductions based on total VMT for each
geographic location.
"continued
C-28
-------
PROFILE it (concluded)
Ridesharing:
Short-Range
Transit
Improvements:
Source:
1. Assumed that a rideshare program targeted in 1987 to firms
with 350 or more employees would involve approximately
120,000 employees at 125 locations.
2. MAG employment files were used to generate data on firm
size and location by transportation analysis zone (TAZ).
3. Solo drivers assumed to join carpools averaging 2.18 persons
per vechicle (1985 average for MAG area).
4. Success rate of 2.33 percent was assumed (233 carpool
converts per 10,000 employees contacted) (this was based on
reported success rates for other cities; see for example:
Booth and Waksman, 1985).
5. Estimated number of employees exposed to the ridesharing
message (100 percent at the contacted firms) was divided by
total employment in each TAZ, to yield percent exposed per
TAZ.
6. Percent exposed per TAZ was factored by success rates and
carpooi occupancy to yield work trip reductions by TAZ.
7. For 1995, assumed program expansion to include companies
with 100 to 349 employees; assumed success rate was 1.17
percent for these smaller sized firms; overall program
success rate assumed to be 1.8 percent; work trip reductions
were calculated as in the 1987 scenario.
1. Regional transit planners estimated .that new bus funding
would increase ridership by 6 percent in 1987 over 1985
data.
2. Transit planners advised that 1985 transit network (used to
establish modeling parameters) would provide a reasonable
approximation of network available in 1987.
3. Travel demand modeling forecasted 33,643 transit trips per
weekday without funding additions; a 6 percent (2,019 trips)
increase was added.
4. Since average auto occupancy for the area is 1.3 persons per
vehicle, transit trip increase (2,019) was divided by 1.3 to
yield number of vehicle trips replaced by increased transit
services (i.e., 1,552 vehicle trips).
MAG, 1987.
C-13
-------
i F
'IE,
III: ' li'i;
4
-------
Appendix D
PAST EXPERIENCE AND POTENTIAL RULES OF THUMB
ASSOCIATED WITH TCM EFFECTIVENESS
-------
-------
Appendix D
PAST EXPERIENCE AND POTENTIAL RULES OF THUMB
ASSOCIATED WITH TCM EFFECTIVENESS
Overview
One of the principal points this guidance attempts to convey is: TCM effectiveness
varies substantially from region to region depending upon a wide range of factors
(e.g., extent of prior transportation controls implemented, nature of traffic conges-
tion and network configuration, availability of transit services, trends in business and
population growth). For approximately a dozen TCMs, the guidance identifies the
factors that contribute to the successful implementation of a particular measure;
information sources are referenced so analysts can research additional measures and
the factors contributing to their success. This information is provided to assist the
guidance user in evaluating how applicable a measure is to his or her own urban area,
and then to allow analysts to judge for themselves, based on these factors, how
effective a measure might be.
Although independent analysis of the potential effectiveness of individual measures
is recommended, insights can and should be drawn from TCM implementation
experiences to-date. This appendix summarizes broad observations on the reported
effectiveness of TCMs. To gain a complete understanding of the information pro-
vided, users should refer to the original documentation for a more complete descrip-
tion of the basis for these observations (references cited are mostly from those listed
in Table 3-4—recommended information sources mentioned in the TCM descriptions
section of this guidance). For example, data on the effectiveness of park and ride
lots also reflect synergistic effects of rideshare promotion activities—synergistic
effects such as these are not detailed in the guidance's descriptive information
section. The observations in this appendix are provided as a tommon sense" check—
if your analyses do not seem to agree with the results profiled below, your assump-
tions and analytical methodologies may need a second review. These observations
should not be an analytical starting point; a review of these findings should be part of
your overall approach.
The findings cover nine broad TCM categories:
Pooling and bus service priority facilities
Vanpools and buspools
-------
Employer-sponsored rideshare programs
Pool/transit fringe parking
Variable work hours
Transit improvements
Traffic flow improvements
Parking management
Pricing strategies
Findings
1. Pooling and Bus Service Priority Facilities
1 .' . • it ••>••• •. • • • i
(frorn Pratt and Coppie, 1981)
,'!•' "' " j1"
i .„ ,„ T'if " •'!!!!' '» i! , ' ! , ' , ' ,„ • , , •', •"!, ,.' l'L Mi., !' ,,i'|l
a. Various priority programs mean an average of a doubling in bus on-time
performance.
b. Mode shifts attributable to priority systems are often small, but transit
market share increases of up to 50 percent can occur over an entire
metropolitan corridor (even with substantial prior transit service).
c. Facilities offering moderate time advantages often realize increases of
100 to 300 pooling vehicles per hour in the peak period.
d. Bypass lanes on metered freeway ramps have increased HOVs an average
25 percent.
• :;'.:';;; ,ii"i i :: >. i .. , ,, ,» :L . i | , ., * '' , ,'!„'" « „; , 'i'1" ». .'j,,!,, ", i ,, ,
e. Highway person-volume increases of 8 to 15 percent have been typical
with freeway and medium distance arterial HOY facilities; vehicle volumes
have increased 3 percent or less, or decreased.
f.
r...
Person-volumes declined with "take a lane" strategies that were later
discontinued.
g. 40' to SO percent of bus and carpool passengers on newly opened freeway
and medium distance arterial facilities formerly drove alone.
h. 35 to 45 percent of the gross VMT reductions achieved through HOV use
will be counterbalanced by "new" VMT from other activities.
8505»rl
D-2
II :'' ili,,iir ,,,,. • '!" i,, „ . IT ' „ .,14": ,
11|. : i,ii n;!1'.; i'Hi niAS1 :' w .,;,:: ",i ii| ,• iH!,'. H'X
-------
(from CSI, 1986)
i. Area-wide ridesharing programs resulted in annual work trip VMT reduc-
tions of from 0.03 to 3.6 percent, 0.3 percent on average (1.2 percent on
average for programs with "before and after" evaluations).
j. Average daily VMT reduction per carpooler was 10.8 percent (44 percent
of the roundtrip length).
k. Area-wide rideshare programs account for between 2 and 5 percent of
total carpooiers in five urban areas.
1. Vehicle volume per person reductions achieved with HOV lanes averaged 6
percent during peak-period commutes (data through 1985); highest reduc-
tions achieved were 18 percent in the morning peak period and 33 percent
in the afternoon peak period.
m. HOV lanes physically separated from other lanes have the potential to
reduce peak period corridor vehicle trips and VMT by 10 percent; maxi-
mum reductions appear to be 5 percent on HOV lanes not physically
separated from routine traffic.
(from Levinson et al., 1987)
n, HOV ramp bypasses provide travel-time savings of from 1-3 minutes per
vehicle.
2. Vanpoois and Buspools
(from Pratt and Copple, 1981)
a. Majority of employer-sponsored vanpool programs serve less than 5 per-
cent of the employees (typically 1 to 2 percent); over 20 percent of pro-
grams* however, serve 10 to 58 percent.
b. Programs are most successful where one-way trip length exceeds 15 miles,
where work schedules are fixed or regular, where employer size allows for
matching of 10 to 12 people from the same residential area, and where
congestion is a problem and transit options are inadequate.
c. About half (45 to 65 percent) of new vanpool/buspool riders formerly drove
to work (except in some CBD programs)} 50 to 100 percent of these
former drivers drove alone; most programs do not divert transit users to
pooling.
0SOS8fL H»
D-3
i
-------
d! Rule of thumb: programs will be successful if the time spent picking up
and dropping off passengers does not exceed the travel time.
e. Attendance is usually 80 to 90 percent of total participants (due to vaca-
tion, illness, need to work overtime, etc.).
{from Levinson et al., 1987)
f. An effective ridesharing program would reduce VMT an estimated 0.2
percent in suburban areas and 0.1 percent in larger cities (e.g., New York
or Chicago).
3. Employer-Sponsored Rideshare Programs
(from CSI, 1986)
a. Programs with subsidized carpooi parking and mandatory return of ride-
share application forms achieve a switch to ridesharing in 12 to 15 percent
of drive-alone employees (this translates into VMT reductions of 7 to 9
percent).
b. Programs at multi-employer sites are less successful than programs sefv-
^ I single, large employer; typically, multi-employer sites achieve a
decrease of 3 to 4 percent in drive-alone employees.
4. Pool/Transit Fringe Parking
(from Pratt and Copple, 1981)
a. Typical'park and ride lots served by rail/rapid transit offer•400 parking
spaces; aU are full if the lot is free; three-quarters are full if a fee is
charged.
D. Typical commuter and light rail lots are smaller; utilization varies, but
tends to be high; park and carpooi lots typically serve fewer than
60 vehicles (average of 20 to 30).
c. Approximately 80 to 90 percent of fringe lot users travel less than 5 miles
to the park and ride service.
d. 40 to 60 percent of park and ride transit lot users previously commuted as
auto drivers.
•105«rl
D-4
-------
e. 60 percent of carpoolers at fringe lots drove alone prior to the parking
lot's availability.
f. Peripheral lots (on the outskirts of the CBD) work only if their charges are
significantly lower than downtown parking rates (cost savings of at least
$0.75 per day (in 1981 dollars) appear to be necessary.
g. Park and ride/transit travel times must be no more than 10 minutes longer
than drive-alone times or use will decline (total time increases over 25
minutes translate to minimal use).
(from CSI, 1986)
h. Data from several urban areas show that on average, about half of all park
and ride lot users drove alone before using a park and ride lot.
5. Variable Work Hours
(from Pratt and Copple, 1981)
a. A quarter to a half of all employees in a localized area will take part in a
variable-work-hours program if a major employer aggressively implements
the program.
b. A large-scale program can reduce maximum 15-minute passenger and
vehicle loads by 15 to 35 percent at terminal facilities (rapid transit,
major parking lots); a 1 percent peak-hour volume reduction has been
reported to save 0.6 to 1.2 percent in travel times.
c. The farther (geographically) the driver is from the employment source, the
less is the impact/reduction in peaking volumes (program effects diminish
by half on radial facilities serving an employment core).
d. In one example, a variable work hour program combined with
corresponding carpooiing improvements reduced VMT 1* percent (among
participating employees).
e. Programs do not appear to affect overall mode choice decisions.
(from Batchelder et al., 1983)
f. Staggered work hours and flex time can yield 5 to 15 percent volume
reductions during peak intervals in a major activity center with several
employers; higher reductions are possible with larger, single employment
centers.
890SSf>
-------
6. Transit Scheduling and Frequency; Bus Routing and Coverage; Express Transit;
Transit Fare Changes
•' • • • '•• • - • • ••• • • • ••' - - ' |
(from Pratt and Coppie, 1981)
a. Average response to transit improvements is a 0.5 percent gain in ridership
for every 1 percent increase in service; express bus service is an excep-
tion: a f percent increase in express bus service to the CBD yields a 0.9
percent increase in ridership.
i"! . ; , , " «:! .';• .• , ' J : ,,.,,,," J
b. One out of every two or three new transit riders is a former auto driver.
:. '. ' - 1 " >''•'•'> ' ,: • . • •-'• , , ..'. Y. '<• '•
'i - ' ; " .rs,!!'1 ', : r 'ii: . . ' ,' .• ' .' si ' .' 4 ' i
|; New bus routes take 1 to 3 years to develop their full ridership (whole new
transit systems take even longer). . . •
,,| i :, liii i 'n jijli,' , , iii i' ,,„:,„, , , ., " . ,i, ,, • ''ii*,,•;;. , ,; i| '"•.
d. Express buses using separate roadways (e.g., Shirley Highway in
Washington, D.C.) produce travel-time savings of 10 to 30 minutes (in
congested corridors).
e. Express buses using HOV freeway lanes save up to 5 minutes in travel
time; large-scale programs carry from 1,000 to 11,000 passengers daily;
smaller programs carry 200 to 600 morning peak-period travelers.
f. Express buses on surface street priority lanes carry 600 to 2,100
passengers daily, with some travel time savings over local bus service and
auto travel.
i
g.' Rule of •thumb: ridership shrinks one-third as much in percentage terms as
a fare increase (e.g., a 3 percent fare increase results in a 1 percent
ridership loss); response rarely exceeds a 0.6 percent decrease in ridership
per 1 percent increase in fares.
h. The larger the city and the more extensive the transit service is, the less
responsive ridership is to fare increases.
L One out of every two to three new transit riders attracted by a fare reduc-
tion is a former auto driver.
(from CSI, 1986)
j. Since transit typically accounts for a small (less than 10 percent) share of
total regional trips, emissions reductions from short-range transit
improvements are limited-major increases in transit ridership result in
only small region-wide VMT reductions.
•tos«r»
-------
k. Greatest VMT reductions are associated with transit service expansions.
(from Levinson et al., 1927)
1. For transit fare or service changes (or changes in parking costs), general
elasticity factors can help assess the impacts; a 100 percent increase in
fares, headways, population coverage, or bus miles may result in transit
ridership changes of the following (approximate) orders:
(1) 100% fare increase: 40% ridership decrease
(2) 100% headway increase: 40-60% ridership decrease
(3) 100% coverage increase: 60-90% ridership increase
(4) 100% bus miles increase: 70-100% ridership increase
Note that these estimates are highly dependent upon initial operating
conditions, fares, the degree to which transit improvements carefully
match potential markets, and service coverage (geographic) and frequency.
m. This reference includes a "look up" table to estimate the effects of
reduced traffic congestion or frequency of stops on bus travel times and
speeds.
n. Bus malls provide travel-time savings of'from 2-5 minutes per mile.
o. Bus lanes on city streets provide travel-time savings of from 1-5 minutes
per mile.
p. Bus lanes oh freeways provide travel-time savings of from 0 to 1.2 minutes
per mile.
q. Bus lanes around major queues provide travel-time savings of from 3-5
minutes per mile.
7. Traffic Flow Improvements
(from CSI, 1986)
a. Signal timing projects in 11 cities yielded estimated average annual
impacts, on a per-intersection basis, of (1) a decrease of 15,470 vehicle
hours of delay, (2) 455,921 fewer stops, (3) a savings of 10,524 gallons of
fuel (results were computed by TRANSYT-7F).
D-7
-------
b Field surveys show signal timing projects reduce delay time 10 percent in
p.m. arid noon peak-periods, 26 percent during the a.m. peak period, and 3
percent during the off-peak period (fuel consumption reductions ranged
from * to 13 percent).
c. A California signal timing program (also in i 1 cities) yielded travel time
reductions (over the whole system) of 6.5 percent; stops and delays were
reduced more than 1* percent, and fuel consumption dropped 6 percent.
d. In six cities implementing freeway ramp metering, average traffic speeds
increased nearly 30 percent-from 30 to 38.9 mph (taking delays at the
ramp meters into account, average speed increases were about 22 percent,
tp'36.5 mph).
(from Levinson et al., 1987)
e. General traffic improvements result in person and vehicle roadway capa-
Cijy gains of between 10-20 percent.
f. Traffic signal improvements provide travel-time savings of from 0.* to 1.6
minutes per mile.
g. Auto restricted zones result in up to a 20 percent reduction in VMT across
the screenline.
8. Parking Management
,'lii' • >• i I'!-" "• „,'',, ; I
(from Levinson et aL, 1987)
a. On street poking controls result in person and vehicle roadway capacity
gains of between 50-100 percent.
b. On-street parking controls provide travel-time savings of from 0.2 to 2A
minutes per mile.
9. Pricing Strategies
•.••'•" • , , rf*'1 , . ' ' i : ll" •
(from Levinson et aL, 1987)
au Bridge, awftui^'^'wWt in a 2 to 5 percent reduction" in VMf per
,':: af fected crossing.
reduction in VMT.
•»ostri i*
D-8
-------
References
Abrams, C. M., 3. F. DiRenzo, S. A. Smith, and R. A. Ferlis. 1981. "Measures of
Effectiveness for TSM Strategies." FHWA/RD-81/177. Prepared for the Office
of Research and Development, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Depart-
ment of Transportation. December 1981.
Albersheim, S. R. 1982. An assessment of transportation control measures for
improving air quality. Transportation Quarterly. Vol. 36, No. 3, July 1982.
Ames, J., T. C. Myers, L. E. Reid, D. C. Whitney, S. H. Golding, 5. R. Hayes, and
S. D. Reynolds. 1985. "Airshed Model Operations Manuals, Volume I—User's
Manual, and Volume II—Systems Manual." EPA-600/S-85/007a,b. U.S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park.
Batchelder, 3. H., M. Golenberg, 3. A. Howard, and H. S. Levinson. 1983. "Simpli-
fied Procedures for Evaluating Low-Cost TSM Projects. User's Manual."
National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report No. 263. Transporta-
tion Research Board, National Research Council. October 1983.
Benedict, R., and M. Nayior. 1988. "Fine Particulate Receptor Modeling in Las
Vegas Using Combined Gaseous and Particulate Source Profiles." APCA/EPA
Conference Transactions, February 1988, pp. 518-529.
Benson, P. E. 1979. "CALINE3—A Versatile Dispersion Model for Predicting Air
Pollutant Levels near Highways and Arterial Streets." FHWA/CA/TL-79/23.
Office of Transportation Laboratory, California Department of Transportation.
November 1979.
Benson, P. E. 1980. "Background and Development of the CALINE-3 Line Source
Dispersion Model." FHWA/CA/TL-80/31. Federal Highway Administration.
Benson, P. E. 198*. "CAUNE«-A Dispersion Model for Predicting Air Pollutant
Concentrations near Roadways." FHWA/CA/TL-84/15. Office of Transporta-
tion Laboratory, California Department of Transportation. November 198*.
Bird, A. 1989. Telephone conversation regarding Region IX SIP modeling efforts
between A. Bird, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX, and L. A.
Mahoney, Systems Applications, Inc. 20 April 1989.
SflOSBrZ 12
-------
Booth, R., and R. Waksman. 1985. "National Ridesharing Demonstration Program:
Comparative Evaluation Report." UMTA-MA-06-0049-85-1. U.S. Department
of Transportation, Research and Special Programs Administration. Transporta-
tion Systems Center. August 1985.
Bowler, C. E., E. C. Noel, R. Peterson, and D. Christiansen. 1986. "Park and Ride
Facilities: Guidelines for Planning, Design, and Operation." Daniel Consultants,
Inc., dolumlus, Missouri. January 1986.
Brittle, C., N. McConnell, and S. Ottare. 198*. "Traffic Mitigation Reference
Guide, A Review of Options Available to the Public and Private Sectors."
Published by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Oakland, California,
and the U.S. Department of Transportation, Office of the Secretary. December
198*. , , • , ... !
Caltrans. 1983. California Highway Design Manual, Bikeway Planning and Design.
Section 7-1000. California Department of Transportation, Sacramento, Califor-
nia. July 1983.
Caltrans. 1989. A Directory of California Trip Reduction Ordinances. California
Department of Transportation, Division of Transportation Planning, Technical
Assistance Branch, Sacramento. April 1989.
Cappelle, D. G., and S. Greene. 1988. "High-Occupancy Vehicle Lanes: An Incen-
tive for Ridesharing?" Presented to the Institute of Transportation Engineers,
District 6,1988 Annual Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado. July 1988.
CARB; 1990. "Derivation of the EMFAC7E Emission and Correction Factors for On-
Road Motor Vehicles." Mobile Source Division, Inventory Analysis Section,
California Air Resources Board. July 1990.
CENTRANS. 1988. Transportation Innovation in the States: National Contest
Entries for l98Sl Produced by the Center for Transportation (CENTRANS), in
cooperation with the Innovations Transfer Program, Policy Analysis Services
Division of the Council of State Governments.
Cooper, J. A., D. C. Redline, J. R. Sherman, L. M. Valdovinos, W. L. Pollard, and
T. Chappie. 1988. "Evaluating Resoivability of Crustal Sources in Eagle River,
Alaska Using Singular Value Diagnostics." APCA/EPA Conference Transactions,
February 1988, pp. *95-507.
••OStfZ 12
-------
Cowherd, C., G. E. Muleski, and J. S. Kinsey. 1988. "Control of Open Fugitive Dust
Sources." EPA-450/3-88-008. Prepared for Emissions Standards Division, Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. September 1988.
CRA. 1988. "Characteristics of Urban Transportation Demand. An Update."
Revised edition. DOT-T-88-18. Prepared by Charles River Associates, Inc. for
the Urban Mass Transportation Administration. July 1988.
Crawford, W. 1987. The Minneapolis Experience: 1-39* Interim HOY Lane." Pre-
sented to the Second Annual HOV Lane & Transitway Conference. 25-28 Octo-
ber 1987.
CSI. 1979. Transportation Air Quality Analysis—Sketch Planning Methods, Volumes
I and II." EPA «00/l-800-001a and OOlb. Prepared by Cambridge Systematics,
Inc. for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and
Land Use Policy. December 1979.
CSI. 1986. "Improved Air Quality in Maricopa and Pima Counties—The Applicability
of Transportation Measures." Contract No. 68-02-4329, Work Assignment No.
1. Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Region IX. November 1986.
Davidson, A., and J. Cassmassi. 1985. Ozone reductions during Olympic period due
to congestion reducing measures. Journal of the Air Pollution Control Associa-
tion. Vol. 35, No. 3, March 1985. ~~
Deakin, E. 1988. Draft reports on transportation control measures. Prepared for
Cambridge Systematics, Inc., and the U.5. EPA, Office of Mobile Sources.
September 1988.
Deakin, E. 1989. "Suburban Congestion." In TRB News. TRB, Washington, D.C.
Deakin, E., and A. Skabardonis. 1985. "Assessing the Traffic Impacts of Transporta-
tion and Land Development Scenarios." Transportation Quarterly. Vol. 39, No.
*, pp. 605-626, October 1985. In: E. Deakin, Strategies to Alleviate Traffic
Congestion, Proceedings of ITE*s 1987 National Conference: Part 2, A Reader.
Institute of Transportation Engineers. 1988.
Deakin, K, and A. Skabardonis. 1986. "Fuel-Efficient Traffic Signal Managements-
Three Years of Experience, 1983-85." University of California; Berkeley,
Institute of Transportation-Studies.
8«058r2 12
R-3
-------
Decorla-Souza, P. 1988. "An Evaluation of Demand Management Strategies for
Toledo's 2010 Transportation Plan." Paper No. 880066. Prepared for presenta-
tion at the 68th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. Decem-
'• ber 1988. ^ ."" ; " ;, ^ • ^ , ^ , " _ ,„ " ' ' '
deRoeck, D. 3. 1988. "New Source Review for Particulate Matter." APCA/EPA
Conference Transactions, February 1988, pp. 21-29.
DiRenzo, 3. F. 1979. Travel and Emissions Impacts of Transportation Control Mea-
sures." Transportation Research Record No. 71*.
*!:,; ' .1 , I,,, ' 'ft,; •' " , , • , | "''•,, ,: • i«, , • , ;,:• , • „ • ,„ •. •;, H1 ' : <|N Mii, ,. ';„ ;, i ,4
DiRenzo, 3. F., and R. B. Rubin. 1978. "Air Quality Impacts of Transit Improve-
ments, Preferential Lane and Carpool/Vanpool Programs." Final Repo"- EPA-
400/2-78-Op2a and b. Prepared lor the Office of Transportation and Land Use
Policy, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. March 1978.
„ .' , - :i
DOT-EPA 1979. "How to Prepare the Transportation Portion of Your State Air
Quality Implementation Plan." Technical Guidance of the United States
Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, with the
cooperation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. November 1978,
reprinted February 1979.
DOT. 1983. Model Parking Code Revisions to Encourage Ridesharing and Transit
Use. U.S. Oejiartment of Transportation. September 1983.
DOT. 1986. Transportation Management for Corridors and Activity Centers:
Opportunities "art Experiences." Final Report. DOT-1-86-21. Prepared by
Office of Planning, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Trans-
portation. Distributed in cooperation with the Technology Sharing Program,
Office of the Secretary of Transportation. May 1986.
DOT. 1987a. "Microcomputers in Transition, Software and Source Book." UMTA-
URT-41-87-1. U.S. Department of Transportation, Urban Mass Transportation
Administration. June 1987.
DOT 1987b. financing for the Future: Changing Roles in Mass Transit." Final
Report DOT-T-SsX Prepared for the U.S. Department of Transportation,
Office of Planning Assistance, Urban Mass Transportation Administration.
December 1987.
G B . and C. E. Bell. 1986. The Development of Traffic Information for
mti^MobUe Source Emissions for Air Quality Modeling-Volume I,
Cf- User's Guide." FHWA/TX-86/76-282-2F. Texas Transportation Insti-
State Department of Highways and Public Transportation, Austin, Texas, in
ralion withthe U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway
Administration. October 1986.
R-4
-------
Dueker, K. 3., P. Pendleton, and P. Luder. 1982. "The Portland Mall Impact
Study." Final Report. DOT-I-83-7. Center for Urban Studies, Portland State
University. Prepared for Office of Planning Assistance, Urban Mass Transporta-
tion Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation. December 1982.
Dunlap, J. 1989. Presentation at the California Air Resources Board Workshop on
the'Transportation Provisions of the California Clean Air Act. Sacramento,
California. 30 March 1989.
Dynatrend, Inc. 1983. Alternate Work Schedules. Prepared for Federal Highway
Administration, Transportation Management and Ridesharing Branch. Washing-
ton, D.C. August 1983.
EEA. 1985. "Program to Calculate Size Specific Paniculate Emissions for Mobile
Sources: A User's Guide." PBS6-179694. Prepared for U. S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency, Office of Mobile Sources. Ann Arbor, Michigan. August 1985.
Eggleston, A. E. 1988. "PM-10 Emission Measurements: Their Relationship to
the Development of Emission Factors and Other Implementation Issues."
APCA/EPA Conference Transactions, February 1988, pp. 267-286.
Eisinger, D. S., R. G. Ireson, and D. R. Souten. 1988. "Transportation Control Mea-
sures: Outline for a Technical Guidance Document." Final Report. Work
Assignment 28, Contract No. 68-02-4393. Prepared for the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency and Pacific Environmental Services, Inc. 5 October 1988.
Emison, G. A. 1988. "Overview of PM-10 Policy and Regulations." APCA/EPA Con-
ference Transactions, February 1988, p. 2-11.
EPA. 1979. "Bicycling and Air Quality Information Document." Final Report. EPA
*00/2-79-001. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation
and Land Use Policy. September 1979.
EPA. 1985a. "Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors. Volume I: Stationary
Sources." AP-42. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina.
EPA. 1985b. "Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors. Volume II: Mobile
Sources." AP-42. Motor Vehicle Emission Laboratory, U. S. Environmental Pro-
tection Agency, Ann Arbor, Michigan. September 1985.
890S8r2 12
-------
I; j' «!]> 1;
EPA. 1986. ''Guideline on Air Quality Models (Revised)." EPA-450/2-78-b27Rl U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards. July 1986. See also, Requirements for Prepara-
ticin, Adoption, and Sufamittal of Air Quality Implementation Plans; Final Rule;
tls. Environmental Protection Agency [revises EPA, 1986a]; Vol. 53 Federal
Register, pp" &2-&£. 'I January 1988.
EPA. 1987a. State Implementation Plans; Approval of Post- 1987 Ozone and Carbon
Monoxide Plan Revisions for Areas Not Attaining the National Ambient Air
Quality Standards; Notice of Proposed Policy. Vol. 52 Federal Register,
pp. 45044-45122. 24 November 1987.
EPA. 19S7b. "Guideline for Use of City-Specific EKMA in Preparing Post-1987
Ozone SIP'S.* draft Report [final report expected to be released October
19893. U.SI Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards. November 1987.
•-'• '-! : ' ' '•-". "I- "" ' • •":: ''I •!•"• ' . ••'• ' ;' . ;,:| , ,'
EPA. 1987c. "PM10 SIP Development Guideline." EPA-450/2-86-001. U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
EPA. I987d. "Regulations for Implementing Revised Particulate Matter
Standards." Final rule. VoL 52 Federal Register, pp. 24672-24715. 1 July 1987.
EPA.I988a. "EPA Lists Areas Failing to Meet Ozone or Carbon-Monoxide Stan-
dards." U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 3 May 1988.
EPA. 1988b. Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; Arizona State
Implementation Plan Revision* Maricopa and Pima Counties Carbon Monoxide
Plans; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking. Vol. 53 Federal Register, pp. 17378-
17422. 16May ifffi. " ' " _ [' " ^ " |
I '"•.'' I"'» 'I'1' I' • "' • '"i '' •' •"" • 'I
EPA. I988c. "Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation, Volume IV: Mobile
Sources." EPA-450/4-81-026d (Revised). U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency. "Officeof Air Quality Planning and Standards. December 1988.
EPA. 1988d. "Emission Inventory Requirements for Post-1987 Carbon Monoxide
State Implementation Plans." EPA-450/4-88-020. Prepared by T. N. Braverman,
Technical Support Division, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park. December 1988.
EPA. 1988e. "Emission Inventory Requirements for Post-1987 Ozone State Imple-
mentation p'iins.1* EPA-450/4-88-019. Prepared by D. C. Misenheimer, Techni-
cal SupportDivSion, Off ice of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U«S»
Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park. December 1988.
12
R-6
i
-------
EPA. 1989a. "User's Guide to MOBILE* (Mobile Source Emission Factor Model)."
EPA-AA-TEB-89-01. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Off ice of Air and
Radiation, Office of Mobile Sources, Emission Control Technology Division, Ann
Arbor, Michigan. February 1989.
EPA. 1989b. "Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation, Volume IV: Mobile
Sources." EPA-*50/*-81-026d, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research
Triangle Park. September 1981. Revised July 1989.
EPA. 1989c. "Requirements for Preparations, Adoption, and Submittal of
Implementation Plans; Methods for Measurement of PM-10 Emissions from
Stationary Sources." Proposed Rule. Vol. 5* Federal Register, pp. 2*213-
2*247. 6 June 1989.
Euler, G. W. 1983. "Traffic Signal Timing Optimization: Achieving National Objec-
tives Through State and Local Government Actions." ITE Journal, Vol. 5*, No.
9, pp. i*-17. September 1983. In: E. Deakin, Strategies to Alleviate Traffic
Congestion, Proceedings of ITE's 1987 National Conference; Part 2, A Reader.
Institute of Transportation Engineers. 1988.
Feldstein and Tranter. 1979. Anatomy of an air quality maintenance plan. Introduc-
tion (and subsequent four articles). Journal of the Air Pollution Control
Association. Vol. 29, No. 4. April 1979.
FHWA. 1986. "Transportation Management for Corridors and Activity Centers:
Opportunities and Experiences." Final Report. DOT-I-86-21. Prepared by
Office of Planning, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Trans-
portation. May 1986.
Fleming, L. 1989. The One-Minute Commuter. How to Keep Your Job and Stay at
Home Telecommuting. Acacia Books, Davis, Calif ornia.
Gilpin, G. 1989. Transportation Systems Manager, City of Pleasanton, California.
Personal communication with Douglas Eisinger, January 1989.
Giuliano, G. 1985. "Olympics Transportation System Management Performance
Analysis." Preliminary Report. UCI-ITS-85-3. Prepared for the California
Department of Transportation, District 7, Research Contract RTA 139*5-
55B579. March 1985.
Gomez-Ibanez, J. A., and G. R. Fauth. 1980. "Using Demand Elasticities from
Disaggregate Mode Choice Models." Transportation. Vol. 9, pp. 105-12*.
Gordon, G.E. 1989. Personal communicatiorr between GU Gordon of Gil Gordon
Associates, Monmouth, New Jersey, and Douglas Eisinger of Systems Applica-
tions, San Rafael, California, 21 September 1989.
8tOS8r2 12
R-7
-------
Gordon, G. E., and M". M. Kelly. 1986. Telecommuting How to Make It Work for
You and Your Company (a complete management guide). Prentice Hall, Inc.,
New York.
Grady, A. 1989. Five-year Evaluation Report of the Denver Better Air Campaign
(forthcoming by September, 1989). Personal communication between Anne
Grady, Denver Better Air Campaign Coordinator, and D. S. Eisinger, Systems
Applications, 20 April 1989.
Granzow, E. 1988. Personal communication between E. Granzow, the Urban Analy-
sis Group, and Douglas Eisinger, Systems Applications, 15 December 1988.
Graves, R. 1989. Personal communication regarding Denver area SIP modeling
efforts between R. Graves, Colorado State Health Department, and L. Mahoney,
Systems Applications, Inc. 20 April 1989.
Gray, H. A., C. S. Liu, and M. A. Nazemi. 1988. "Optimization of PM-10 Control
Strategy in the South Coast Air Basin." APCA/EPA Conference Transactions,
February 1988, pp. 589-600.
Greene and Associates. 1988. -Route 55 Travel Behavior Study." Draft Final
Report. Prepared by Sharon Greene and Associates for the Orange County
Transportation Commission. September 1988.
Hamerslough, J.' 1989. Personal communication between J. Hamerslough, Senior
Transportation Planner, Southern California Association of Governments, and
Douglas Eisinger, Systems Applications, Inc. 3 May 1989.
Harris^ H. W. 1989. Personal communication between H. W. Harris, Oregon Depart-
ment of Environmental Quality, Air Quality Division, and F. W. Wicher, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX, Air and Toxics Division. 17 July
1989.
Hawthorn, G. 1988. "Political and Regulatory Opportunities for Transportation Con-
trol Measures in the Post «87 Era." Presented at the Transportation Research
Board, Transportation-Air Quality Committee Summer Meeting. 25 3uly 1988.
Hayes, S. R., R. G. Ireson, 3. L. Fieber, R. G. Johnson, L. A. Mahoney, and A. S.
Rosenbaum. 1989. Technical Analyses in Determining PM10 and Other Control
Requirements for the South Coast Air Basin." SYSAPP-89/OW. Systems Appli-
cations, Inc., San Rafael, California.
Hlavinka, M. W., J. 3. Korpics, and J. A. Bullin. 1987. TEXIN2: A versatile model
for predicting carbon monoxide concentrations near intersections. 3. Air Pollut.
Control Assoc., 37(7):819-822.
«sosarj 12 R
-------
Horowitz, 3. L. 1977. "Packaging Transportation Elements to Meet Environmental
Objectives." Transportation Research Board Special Report No. 172.
Horowitz, J. 1982. Air Quality Analysis for Urban Transportation Planning. MIT
Press, Cambridge.
Huhn, E. J., R. Graves, and C. Selnick. 1988. "A Particulate Inventory Generation
and Modeling System." APCA/EPA Conference Transactions, February 1988, pp.
387-397.
Ireson, R. G., and M. C. Dudik. 1987. "TRFCONV Application Guide." SYSAPP-
87/155. Prepared for the Maricopa Association of Governments, Phoenix, Ari^
zona. 26 August 1987.
ITE. 1988a. "The Effectiveness of High-Occupancy Vehicle Facilities. An Informa-
tional Report." Institute of Transportation Engineers, Washington, D.C.
ITE. 1988b. Strategies to Alleviate Traffic Congestion. Proceedings of ITE*s 1987
National Conference. Institute of Transportation Engineers, Washington, D.C.
ITS. 1985. 1985 Highway Capacity Manual, Supplemental Report for California
Conditions. Institute of Transportation Studies. University of California,
Berkeley, California. 1985 [see TRB, 1985].
JALA. 1989. The State of California Telecommuting Pilot Project, Midterm
Report. Prepared by 3 ALA. Associates, Los Angeles, California, for the State of
California Department of General Services. June 1989.
Johnson, G. T., and L. A. Hoel. 1987. "Review of Financing Options for Highways
and Transit." Journal of Transportation Engineering. VoL 113, No. 1, pp. 72-83.
In: E. Deakin. Strategies to Alleviate Traffic Congestion. Proceedings of ITE*s
1987 National Conference; Part 2, A Reader. Institute of Transportation Engi-
neers. 1988.
Kamhi,V. 1985. Traffic Mitigation in a Small Urban Area." Presented at the
Transportation Air Quality Symposium sponsored by the California Air
Resources Board, the EPA, CALTRANS, CAPCOA, South Coast AQMD,
Southern California Association of Governments, and the University of Califor-
nia Institute of Transportation Studies. Burbank, California, 6-7 June 1985.
Klusza, R. 1987. Route 55 Newport Costa Mesa Freeway Commuter Lane 18 Month
Report. California Department of Transportation. 29 July 1987.
Levinson, H. S. 1987. "H.O.V. Lanes on Arterial Streets." Polytechnic University of
New York. Presented at the Second National H.O.V. Lane &. Transitway Confer-
ence, Houston, Texas. 27 October 1987.
12
-------
y^^vfi!*
III
Levinson, H. S., M. Golenberg, and K. Zografos. 1987. Transportation System
||anagement—How Effective? Some Perspectives on Benefits and Impacts."
transportation Research Record 11*2: Urban Signal Systems and Transportation
System Management. Transportation Research Board, National Research Coun-
cil.
Ligas, J. F. 1989. Personal communication between F. P. Wicher of the U.S.
Environmental. Protection Agency and J. F. Ligas of the Chicago Area Trans-
portation Study. 6 July 1979.
Lindley, J. A. 1987a."A Methodology for Quantifying Urban Freeway Congestion.'1
Inj Freeway Management and Operations, Transportation Research Record No.
1132. Transportation Research Board, National Research Council.
Lindley, J. A. 1987b. Urban freeway congestion: quantification of the problem and
effectiveness of potential solutions. ITE Journal, January 1987.
Lovelock, C. H., G. Lewin, G. S. Day, and J.E.G. Bateson. 1987. Marketing Public
Transit, A Strategic Approach. Praeger Books, New York.
1987a. "Documentation of Traffic Modeling and Transportation Control Mea-
sure Analysis for Use in Air Quality Modeling for the Maricopa County Non-
attainment Area." Draft Report. Appendix B, Exhibit 5. MAG Transportation
[^Planning "Office. April 1987.
MAG. 1987b. MAG 1987 Carbon Monoxide Plan for the Maricopa County Area.
Prepared by the Maricopa Association of Governments. July 1987.
MAGTPO. 1988. Traffic Counting Results for the 1987-88 Voluntary No Drive Days
Program. Maricopa Association of Governments, Transportation and Planning
Office.
. . . . .. . , ... i ..
Market Analysis Professionals. 1988. Colorado Department of Health, Better Air
Campaign, Market Research and Evaluation. March 1988.
,. ,|
Martinez, E. L., A. A. MacQueen, and F. M. Noonan. 1988. "PM-10 Emission Fac-
tors: Availability and Efforts/Alternatives to Fill Existing Gaps." APCA/EPA
Conference transactions, February 1988, pp. 259-266.
McTrans. 1989. *TRAF-NET SIM Released by FHWA." McTrans Newsletter, Vol. 3,
N0.5. The Center for Microcomputers in Transportation, University of
Florida. March 1989. ' •'"
Meyer, M. D., T. F. Humphrey, C. M. Walton, K. Hooper, R. G. Stanley, C. K. Orski,
and P. A. Peyser, Jr. 1989.' "A Toolbox for Alleviating Traffic Congestion."
Institute of Transportation Engineers, Washington, D.C.
>SOS«r2 12
A R-10
-------
Mohr, R. 1988. "PM-10 SIP Development in Colorado—A Case Study." APCA/EPA
Conference Transactions, February 1988, pp. 561-57*.
Mokhtarian, P. L. 1988. "An Empirical Evaluation of the Travel Impacts of Tele-
conferencing." Transportation Research-A. Volume 22A, No. *, pp. 283-289.
Morris, R. E., T. C. Myers, H. Hogo, L. R. Chinkin, L. A. Gardner, and R. G.
Johnson. 1989. "A Low-Cost Application of the Urban Airshed Model to the
New York Metropolitan Area and the City of St. Louis (Five Cities UAM Study
Phase I)." SYSAPP-89/070. Systems Applications, Inc., San Rafael, California.
Mounce, 3. M. 1987. "Restoring Mobility in Houston." Texas Transportation
Reporter, Official Research Publication of the Texas Transportation Institute.
VoL 23, No. 3, September 1987.
MTC. 1985. Commute Alternatives, A Manual for Transportation Coordinators.
Third Edition. Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Oakland, California.
May 1985.
Murray, G. 1986. "Promoting Commute Alternatives: Will It Work in Your City?"
Western City, April 1986; pp. 5-6,19, 32.
MWCOG. 1982. "Final Washington Metropolitan Air Quality Plan for Control of
Ozone and Carbon Monoxide. Appendices, Volume II." Metropolitan Washington -'
Council of Governments, December 1982.
Neffendorf, H. 1988. TRANSYT/9 vs TRANSYT-7F. McTrans Newsletter, VoL 3,
No. 3. University of Florida Transportation Research Center, Gainesville,
Florida. September 1988.
Nilles,3. M. 1976. The Telecommunications-Transportation Tradeoff. Potions for
Tomorrow. John Wiley &. Sons, Inc., New York.
Nollen, S. D., and V. H. Martin. 1978. Alternative Work Schedules. American
Management Association, New York, 1978. Ire CSI, 1986.
O'Connor, 3. 1988. Closing Remarks for the PM-10 Implementation Conference and
Opening Remarks for the Receptor Modeling Conference, San Francisco, Cali-
fornia. APCA/EPA Conference Transactions, 2* February 1988, pp. xxvi-xxxL
Oliver, W. R., T. W. Tesche, S. H. Peoples, R. R. Boyd, and R. Tate. 1987. "Planning
Study for the Emission Inventory for the Southern California Air Quality
Study." Final Report. Prepared for the Emissions Working Group, Southern
California Air Quality Study. 17 April 1987.
8tossr2 12
-------
Parody, T. E. 198*. "Predicting Travel Volumes for High-Occupancy-Vehicle Strate-
gies: A Quick-Response Approach." In: Travel Model Development and Opera-
tions Research Methods, Transportation Research Record No. 976. Transporta-
f iori Research Soa rd, National Research Council.
I
PATH. Program on Advanced Technologies lor the Highway, Institute of
Transportation Studies, University of Calif ornia, Berkeley (various publications).
Pedersen, N. J., and D. R. Samdahl. 1982. "Highway Traffic Data for Urbanized
Area Project Planning and Design." National Cooperative Highway Research
Program Report No. 255. Transportation Research Board, National Research
Council. December 1982.
Perardi, T. E., M."Y. Kim, E. Y. Leong, and R. Y. Wada. 1979. Preparation ana" use
Qf spatially and temporally resolved emission inventories in the San Francisco
Bay region. SournaJ of the Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 29, No. *.
April 1979. ....... . ....... .......... ; ' i ; . .............. ; ......... ;;
Petefsen, W. R. 1980. "User's Guide for HlWAY-2, A Highway Air Pollution
Model." EPA-600/8-80-018. Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory,
Qffice of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
May 1980. " '"": ...... ": ....... ....... ............ ......... ;
Pratt, R. H., and 3. N. Copple. 1981. Traveler Response to transportation System
Changes. Second Edition. Prepared under contract No. DOT-FH-1 1-9579
through Barton-Aschman Associates, Inc., R. H. Pratt & Co. Division. Prepared
,' for the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,
Office of Highway Planning, Urban Planning Division. 3uly 1981.
...... : ! ...... ' ........ ' .......... . " • • ............................ •• •" • ........... J
PTI. 1986. "the Urban Transportation Planning System (UTPS), An Introduction for
Management.* Prepared by Public Technology, Inc. for the U.S. Department of
Transportation, Urban Mass Transportation Administration, Federal Highway
Administration, Of f ice of the Secretary. April 1986.
..... 'h ,. ',i"i' lj|! • , ' V|!|l ..... ,; , .,:: „ "; ..... ', ; i ....... ».,!j,, ;;,;;, , , ..... ..... : " ;i: ..... , . ' ,,,,,,; i ••,"„, • ,;: , ; iiJ '„ ' i ||" •
j
Pultz, S. 1988. "Key Considerations for Developing Local Government TSM Pro-
^gramsi*' Final Report. Metropolitan Transportation Commission, Oakland, Caii-
fornia. December 1988.
j
Purvis, C. L. 19l|a. "VMT Forecasting Using Regional Travel Demand Models."
Metropolitan Transportation Commission. Paper submitted to the Transporta-
tion Research Board, Committee A 1F03, Transportation and Air Quality: Com-
mon Ground. Sacramento, California, 26 3uly 1988.
8$OS8r2 12 R-12
11
-------
Purvis, C. L. 1988b. "High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) Forecasting in the San Fran-
cisco Bay Region." Metropolitan Transportation Commission. Paper submitted
to the 1988 National HOV Facilities Conference, Minneapolis, Minnesota, 17
October 1988.
Reynolds, S. D., T. W. Tesche, and L. E. Reid. 1979. "An Introduction to the SAI
Airshed Model and Its Usage." EF78-53R4-EF79-31. Systems Applications, Inc.,
San Rafael, California. March 1979.
Roden, D. B. 1988. The development of a regional information system and subarea
analysis process. ITE Journal, December 1988.
Rogers, F. 1986. "Airshed Modeling of Denver for Carbon Monoxide: A Compre-
hensive Overview." Technical Services Program Air Pollution Control Division,
Colorado Department of Health. February 1986.
Rosenbloom, S. 1978. "Peak-Period Traffic Congestion: A State-of-the-Art Analy-
sis and Evaluation of Effective Solutions." Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 2, pp.
167-191. June 1978. In: E. Deakin, Strategies to Alleviate Traffic Congestion,
Proceedings of ITE«s 1987 National Conference; Part 2, A Reader. Institute of
Transportation Engineers. 1988.
Russell, A. G., and G. R. Cass. 1986. Verification of a mathematical model for
aerosol nitrate and nitric acid formation. Atmos. Environ., 20:2011-2025.
Ryan, W. M., C. R. Badgett-West, D. R. Holtz, T. A. Peters, J. A. Cooper, and
D. Ono. 1988. "Reconciliation of Receptor and Dispersion Modeling Impacts of
PM-10 in Hayden, Arizona." APCA/EPA Conference Transactions, February
1988, pp. 419-429.
SAI. 1989. STAPPA/ACAPCD/EPA Urban Airshed Modeling Workshop. Prepared
by Systems Applications, Inc., San Rafael, California; sponsored by the U.S.
EPA. Presented at the Vanderbilt Plaza Hotel, Nashville, Tennessee. 11-12
April 1989.
SCAG. 1985. "The Telecommuting Phenomenon: Overview and Evaluation."
Southern California Association of Governments, Transportation Planning
Department, Special Studies Section. March 1985.
SCAG. 1989. "Telecommuting in the Air Quality Management Plan," Telecommunity
Newsletter of the Southern California Association of Governments. Volume 4,
Numbers 5,6. March/June 1989.
SCAQMD. 1987. Regulation XV, Trip Reduction/Indirect Source. Rules 1501-1505.
South Coast Air Quality Management District, El Monte, California. As
adopted, 11 December 1987.
RT-13
-------
SCAQMD. 1988. "Draft Air Quality Management Plan, 1988 Revision. Appendix IV-
A, tier I and Tier II Control Measures." South Coast Air Quality Management
District, El Monte, California. June 1988.
SCAQ'MD/SCAG. 1988. "Proposed Modifications to the Draft 1988 Air Quality
Management Plan." South Coast Air Quality Management District and Southern
California Association of Governments (December 1988).
I
Scheuernstuhl, G. J. 1989. Personal communication between F. P. Wiener of the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and G. J. Scheuernstuhl of the Denver
Regional Council of Governments. 7 July 1989.
Schreff ler, E. N. 1986. "Transportation Management Organizations: An Emerging
Public/Private Partnership." Transportation Planning and Technology, Vol. 10,
No. 4, pp. 257-266. In: El Deakih. Strategies to Alleviate Traffic Congestion,
Proceedings of ITE*s 1987 National Conference; Part 2, A Reader. Institute of
Transportation Engineers. 1988.
" '" ' "'' ' ' ' ' "'"' ' ' " ' ' '' ' "f
Schwartz, S, I., and L. Home. 1983. "Traffic Metering of High Density Sectors."
ITE Compendium of technical Papers, pp. 12-16 through 12-21.
Seiders, L. R. 1988. Personal communication between Douglas Eisinger, Systems
Applications, Inc., and L. R. Seiders, COMSIS. 20 December 1988.
Seitz, L. 19§9. Personal communication between L. A. Mahoney of Systems Appli-
cations and L. Seitz, California Department of Transportation, Division of
Transportation Planning. 20 April 1989.
Seitz, L., andI R. Baishiki. 1988. Coding Instructions, Direct Travel Impact Model
(DTIM). £^0^^ Department of Transportation. Updated 16 June 1988.
Shoup,D.1982. Cashing out free parking. Transportation Quarterly. July 1982.
Skabardonis, A. 1986a. "Development of Air Quality Models for Traffic Signal
Timing Programs." Workshop Presentation. Institute of Transportation Studies,
University of California, Berkeley, California. 2* June 1986.
Skabardonis, A. 19866. "Development of Emissions Models for Traffic Signal Timing
Programs." Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California,
Berkeley, August 1986.
Small, K. 1983. The incidence of congestion tolls on urban highways. Journal of
Urban Economics, Vol. 13.
t*osar2 12 R-14
-------
Soffian, G., I. Tsarnas, and J. Antokas. 1988. "New York City's Better Air Cam-
paign: A Program to Attain the Carbon Monoxide Standard." Presented at the
81st Annual Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association, Dallas, Texas,
19-24 June 1988.
Somers, J. 1989. Telephone conversation regarding the MOBPART program between
3. Somers, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Ann Arbor, Michigan, and
L. Mahoney, Systems Applications, Inc. 21 April 1989.
Sossiau, A. B., A. B. Hassam, M. M. Carter, and G. V. Wickstrom. 1978. "Quick
Response Urban Travel Estimation Techniques and Transferable Parameters,
User's Guide." National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report No.
187. Transportation Research Board, National Research Council.
Sperling, D. 1988. New Transportation Fuels. University of California Press,
Berkeley.
SRF. 1987. "1-394 Interim HOV Lane: A Case Study, Phase I Report." Prepared by
Strgar-Roscoe-Fausch, Inc. for the Minnesota Department of Transportation and
the Federal Highway Administration. October 1987.
Stopher, P. R., and A. H. Meyburg. 1973. Urban Transportation Modeling and
Planning. Lexington Books, Lexington.
Suhrbier, J. H., T. J. Atherton, and E. A. Deakin. 1979. "Improved Air Quality
Through Transportation System Management," Transportation Research Record
No. 722.
TRB. 1983. Transportation Innovations: Ridesharing Techniques and Public-Private
Cooperation." Transportation Research Record No. 914. Transportation
Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences.
TRB. 1985. "Highway Capacity Manual. Special Report No. 209." Transportation
Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences.
• [see also ITS, 1983].
TRC. 1988. "TRANSYT-7F Userts Manual, Release 6." Prepared by the Transporta-
tion Research Center, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida. October 1988.
UTPS Center. 1988. "UTPS Info, News from the Urban Transportation Planning Sys-
tem Center." UTPS Center, Washington State Transportation Center, Seattle.
Vol I, No. 2. December 1988.
Van Aerde, M., S. Yagar, A. Ugge, and E. R. Case. 1987. "A Review of Candidate
Freeway-Arterial Corridor Traffic Models." Ins Freeway Management and
Operations, Transportation Research Record No. 1132. Transportation Research
Board, National Research Council.
12
I
-------
Wade, D. 1989. Personal communication between Dennis Wade, California Air
Resources Board, and Douglas Eisinger, Systems Applications, Inc. 1 May 1989.
Wagner, F. A. 1980. "Energy Impacts of Urban Transportation Improvements."
Institute of Transportation Engineers, Washington, D.C.
Wagner, F. A., and K. Gilbert. 1978. "Transportation System Managements An
Assessment of Impacts." UMTA VA-06-0047. Interim Report. Prepared for the
U. S. Department'of"frahsportation, Urban Mass Transportation Administration,
and the Federal Highway Administration, in cooperation with the U.S. Environ-
mental Projection Agency. November 1978.
Watson, J. G., J. C. Chow, and C. V. Mathai. 1989. "Receptor Models in Air
Resources Management: A Summary of the APCA'Intemationai Specialty Con-
ference." 3. Air Pollut. Control Assoc., Vol. 39, No. 4, pp. U9-426. April 1989.
Weisbrod, G. "•'Business and Travel Impacts of Boston's Downtown Crossing Auto-
mobile-Restricted Zone." Transportation Research Record 882, Washington,
D.c. 1982, pp. 25-32. In: 3. H* Batchelder, M. Colenberg, 3. A. Howard, and
H. S. Levinson. 1983. Simplified Procedures for Evaluating Low-Cost TSM Pro-
iects. Use7*s"Manuai. National Cooperative Highway Research Program Report
.
No. 263. Transportation Research Board, National Research Council. October
::1983. , I '". . ".'". " ' ".; , '.. , ,
Wendt, J. G., and Y. Garza. 1988. "Motor Vehicle Contribution to PM-10 in Califor
nia." APCA/EPA Conference Transactions, February 1988, pp. 302-313.
Wiersig, D. W. 1982. "Planning Guidelines for Selecting Ridesharirig Strategies."
Transportation Research Record No. 876: Rideshar ing 1981. Transportation
Research Board, National Research Council.
Wilbur Smith and Associates. 1981. "Measures of Effectiveness of Transportation
Systems Management." Final Report. UMTA-IT-09-0089-81-1. Prepared for
the Tri-State Regional Planning Commission, New York; and the Urban Mass
Transportation Administration. April 1981.
Wo^dard, K. RM and R. D. Bauman. 1988. ^Progress in PM-10 SIP Development."
APCA/EPA Conference Transactions, February 1988, pp. 531-539.
•t05flr2 12
R-16
-------