EPA-450/4-74-008
(OAQPS No. 1.2-026)
GUIDELINES FOR AIR QUALITY
MAINTENANCE PLANNING AND ANALYSIS
- \ VOLUME 7: .".-" ' '*.'. ,
PROJECTING COUNTY EMISSIONS
SECOND EDITION
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, N.C. ,27711
January 1975
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The guideline series of reports is being issued by the Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards (QAQPS) to provide information to state and local
air pollution control agencies; for example, to provide guidance on the
acquisition and processing of air quality data and on the planning and
analysis requisite for the maintenance of air quality. Reports published in
this series will be available - as supplies permit - from the Air Pollution
Technical Information Center, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
27711; or, for a nominal fee, from the National Technical Information Ser-
vice, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by
the Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, N. C., in
fulfillment of Task Order No. 1, Contract Number 68-02-1386. The
contents are reproduced herein as received from the contractor. Prior
to final preparation the report underwent extensive review and editing
by the Environmental Protection Agency and other concerned organizations.
The contents reflect current Agency thinking and will form the basis
for promulgation of official policy in Requirements for Preparation,
Adoption, and Submittal of Implementation Plans (40 CFR Part 51).
Publication No. EPA-450/4-74-008
COAQPS Guideline No. 1.2-026)
11
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FOREWORD
This document is the seventh in a series-comprising Guidelines for
Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis. The intent of the series
is to provide State and local agencies with information and guidance for
the preparation of Air Quality Maintenance Plans required under 40 CFR 51.
.The volumes in this series are:
Volume 1; Designation of Air Quality Maintenance Areas
Volume 2: Plan Preparation
Volume 5: Gontrol Strategies
Volume 4: Land Use and Transportation Considerations
Volume 5: Case Studies in Plan Development
Volume 6: Overview of Air Quality Maintenance Area Analysis
Volume 7: Projecting County Emissions
Volume 8: Computer-Assisted Area Source Emissions Gridding Procedure
Volume 9: Evaluating Indirect Sources
Volume 10: Reviewing New Stationary Sources
Volume 11: Air Quality Monitoring and Data Analysis '
Volume 12: Applying Atmospheric Simulation Models to Air Quality
Maintenance Areas
Volume 15: Allocating Projected Emissions to Subcounty Areas
Additional volumes may be issued.
All references to 40 CFR Part 51 in this document are to the regulations
as amended through July 1974.
111
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Number
INTRODUCTION
1. Purpose of the Manual
2. Scope of the Emissions Projections
3. Summary of the General Approach Used
in the Manual
4. Structure of the Manual
5. Emission Source Categories
6. General Instructions
7. Estimating Future Emissions
8. Project Organization and Planning
9. Glossary of Terms
1
2
3
6
9
15
17
23
28
II.
DATA SOURCES
31
III. EMISSION INVENTORY UPGRADING AND
UPDATING PROCEDURES
LEVEL 1 EMISSION INVENTORY UPDATE
LEVEL 2 EMISSION INVENTORY UPDATE
LEVEL 3 EMISSION INVENTORY UPDATE
39
42
60
78
IV. FORECAST PROCEDURES
LEVEL 1 EMISSION PROJECTIONS
LEVEL 2 EMISSION PROJECTIONS
LEVEL 3 EMISSION PROJECTIONS
99
105
1.21
135
IV
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I. INTRODUCTION
In-Chapter I, a general introduction to the content and approach
of the manual is given. It is recommended that this chapter be read
before the emission inventory update and projections are begun. This
chapter is divided into the following sections:
1. Purpose of the manual
2. Scope of the emission projections
3. Summary of the general approach used in the manual
4. Structure of the manual
5. Emission source categories
6. General instructions
7. Estimating future emissions
8. Project organization and planning
9. Glossary of terms.
1.
PURPOSE OF THE MANUAL
The purpose of this manual is to provide a set of specific proce-
dures for estimating future air pollution emissions from point and area
sources in an individual county or in any comparatively small geo-
graphic area. A uniform output format is proposed which enables the
results from a number of counties to be aggregated to the SMSA or
AQCR level. Since future emissions are determined by the level of
activity in the county, the pollution projections are based on estimates
of economic and demographic growth. These projections are developed
for each specified county and are established independently of potential
growth in emissions from neighboring counties. In addition, the im-
pact of emission abatement regulations and compliance schedules is in-
cluded in the calculation of net emissions.
The results of the projections made in accord with the procedures
given in the manual are intended to be used as an input to the EPA Air
Quality Maintenance Area (AQMA) program. The manual may also be
used for a number of other purposes:
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To identify regions not already designated as candidate
regions for air quality maintenance programs
To indicate whether a region may be in danger of failing
to meet ambient air quality standards in the future
To evaluate the effect of proposed AQM strategies.
2.
SCOPE OF THE EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS
Annual emissions of the five criteria pollutants particulates,
sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons
can be estimated using the procedures specified in this manual. The
calculations outlined will provide baseline emissions and projections
of pollutant emissions for any three projection years. The baseline
year can be any calendar year for which data exist sufficient for de-
termining baseline emissions. Five-year projection intervals are rec-
ommended because smaller time increments would require additional
effort without a significant increase in accuracy, while larger time
increments would degrade the validity of interpolation techniques for
the intervening years if information for intervening years is desired.
The only situation in which such an interpolation procedure could intro-
duce estimating errors is when a large point source is introduced at
some intermediate year or when pollution control regulations come
into effect for some intervening year and drastically affect total allow-
able emission for the geographical area. These cases are specifically
treated in the forecasting methodology. Growth projections developed
at the county level covering a time period greater than 15 years would
be increasingly inaccurate, so that their utilityto the AQMA program
would be questionable.
The output of the projections described in this manual will,be es-
timates of net annual emissions in the five criteria categories, pre-
sented in the standard National Emission Report (NER) format. This
format provides for disaggregation of sources into the following pri-
mary categories:
Fuel combustion (point and area)
Industrial process (point) (13 industrial categories)
Transportation (area)
Solid waste disposal (point and area)
Miscellaneous (point and area).
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Forecasts are for net pollutants discharged in the county and in-
clude the effect of equipment control efficiency, control regulation dead-
lines, and schedules of compliance" to those regulations.
The manual does not provide a procedure for estimating air qual-
ity directly. Air quality modeling involves four additional factors:
contribution of pollutants from neighboring counties; geographic distri-
bution of sources within the region; modeling of meteorological disper-
sion of pollutants; and photochemical reaction of pollutants. Although
air quality is not specifically treated herein, there is no reason that the
data developed and projections made using this manual could not be used
as an input to a regional air quality model. In this case, the input re- -
quirements for air quality studies would be better served by using point
source specific data developed in following the procedures given in the
manual-rather than the aggregated NER format totals. Such detailed
data includes geographic location, stack data, and daily and seasonal
variation in emissions. If air quality modeling will be done, the base
year for emissions should be the same as the base year for air quality
data. "'''
In completing the calculations specified in the manual, certain
assumptions concerning future growth must be made. On occasion,
the manual specifies assumptions or constraints which may result in
projections of a faster rate of growth than would be considered most
probable. Assumptions of this type may produce future emission levels
which from an air quality standpoint would be pessimistic. However,
projections of "worst case" growth within reasonable limits ensures
that a maintenance program is instituted whenever there is reasonable
concern that a region might exceed emissions standards at some time
in the future.
3. SUMMARY OF THE GENERAL APPROACH USED IN THE
MANUAL. . ' ' .
The manual provides estimating procedures to be completed by
county or other local government representatives. A limited familiar-
ity with air quality data analysis and analytic techniques such as graph-
ical extrapolation and curve fitting is presumed. The emphasis in
both the development of the projection methodologies presented in this
manual and translation of these methodologies into a coherent set of
manual instructions has been on simplicity and clarity with a minimum
sacrifice of validity.
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The manual has been designed specifically to provide for local
initiative and data input. This is an extremely valuable feature for a
number of reasons. The personnel at the county level responsible for
completion of the manual will in many cases have most immediate
access to some of the best data for making growth projections. Local
data can be used when the user feels them to be more accurate or
timely than published state or national- data. There is great variation
among counties as far as type and depth of data and projections avail-
able; the user is encouraged to use the references he feels are most
appropriate, even if they are not cited explicitly in the instructions.
There is also provision for substitution of local emission factors for
those published by EPA. For future reference, the titles and dates of
the references consulted should be documented in the space provided
in the tables. Complete documentation of references, calculation
methods and assumptions is imperative for interpretation of the pro-
jection results.
The provision for local initiative imposes on the user the respon-
sibility to perform the calculations and data analysis in a very careful
way. The emission projections provided by the manual will-be most
valid if the user does not routinely follow the instructions, but rather
queries their validity and improves on them when appropriate.
In some cases, alternate projection methods are specified; those
producing substantially more accurate results are identified. If the
user, based on knowledge of his county and its character, prefers one
method, he should use it. Alternate methods can also be used as a
check. '
While emission projections can be completed using hand calcula-
tions only, the use of computerized data processing is encouraged if
resources permit. The manual methodology is deliberately general in
order to be potentially useful to any county in the country. There is a
wide disparity among counties with respect to number, type and loca-
tion of emission sources and their expected growth patterns. As a re-
sult, some estimating techniques discussed herein will not be applicable
to every county.
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The manual is a complete 'and independent document in the sense
that all the steps required to generate emissions estimates are explic-
itly defined, the sources to-be consulted for input data are specified,
and a complete set of forms and tables is enclosed for reference.
Parameters and data to be recorded in this manual reflect the
total activity for the entire calendar year (e. g., tons emitted by a
source per calendar year). There is no provision in the manual for
differentiation in time among events or activities in the same year,
All data used for a given calendar year should be averaged to give the
mean status of that calendar year.
In addition to the great variety of emission characteristics among
counties, it is anticipated that there will be a significant variation
among counties in level of effort and resources available to generate
these projections. Consequently, projection techniques for the various
source categories are specified which involve different levels of effort
and manpower requirements. In this way, more resources can be
focused on these categories/which are, major pollution sources in the
county, and proportionately less effort need be expended on minor
sources. Such resource allocation is essential to maximize the valid-
ity of the projections within time and manpower constraints. .
Predicting air pollution emissions involves three distinct tasks-
Determining as accurately as possible the baseline of
emissions levels on which projections will be based
Estimating growth patterns for those economic and demo-
graphic parameters (e. g., industry output, population,
vehicle miles) which are related to emissions
Determining the relationship between activity levels pro-
jected and the actual emissions produced, as limited by
pollution controls.
The first task requires a systematic update of the National Emis-
sions Data System (NEDS) inventory of point and area sources in the
county, or the local emissions inventory if no NEDS data exists, to en-
sure that the base year inventory is current and complete. Since growth
is expressed as an increase or decrease in the baseline activity levels,
the emission projections can only be as accurate as the data on which
they are based. The second task, estimating growth patterns, is based
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on intracounty information, such as historical trends, specific industrial
growth plans, and land-use plans and controls. The county is treated as
an independent entity in an economic sense. There are a number of
distinct advantages associated with such a projection technique which
builds up from the county level. It is based in large part on local infor-
mation (much of which might be unpublished and unofficial), which in
many cases can provide the best estimates of local growth. Since the
projections are to be made by local or regional officials, with knowledge
of local practices, the opportunity has been provided to override emis-
sion factors or other standard statistics, and to use parameters or data,
which are considered more accurate for their jurisdiction. The third
task, relating projected activity levels to net emissions, requires a re-
view of all laws and regulations that apply to any sources in the county,
The effect of emission controls is quite significant in forecasting emis-
sion levels, because while activity growth for many sources will re-
main below five or ten percent per year, control regulations may re-
quire a decrease in emissions of 50 percent or more.
The projections developed using this manual should be consid-
ered indicators of future emissions levels and not as firm certainty
because of the sensitivity of the projections to input data and assump-
tions. It is recommended that ranges of potential input variables be
considered to test the sensitivity of the projections to key assumptions.
At the present time a field test of the manual is being planned.
This will involve completing the data update and projections for the
Baltimore, Maryland AQMA. The results and interpretation of this
test will be published as an additional chapter to the manual: Chap-
ter V, Example Case Study.
4. STRUCTURE OF THE MANUAL
The manual contains four chapters:
I - Introduction
II - Data Sources
III - Emission Inventory Update Procedures
IV - Forecast Procedures.
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Chapter II provides a discussion of the three categories of data
sources which are to be used in the calculations:
EPA documents and emission inventory data from the
National Emission Data System (NEDS)
Local studies, reports and data, published by city, county,
metropolitan area or state
Federal agency reports which may include state or county
data, but differ from local studies in that the data are kept
uniformly for all geographic divisions.
Specific instructions are provided in this chapter on how to obtain the
required data sources.
In Chapter III, procedures for updating the emission inventory
for the county are given. Throughout the manual emphasis is placed
on NEDS point and area source inventory data in the determination of
baseline emissions. This data base is valuable especially for point
source emissions, because the number of individual point sources,
even in an area as small as a county, can be quite large. The area
source data in the NEDS file are usually based on general calculations,
rather than detailed local surveys.
The accuracy of the NEDS data presently in the National system
can vary for a number of reasons:
The point source inventory may be incomplete with some
major sources omitted
The area source data may not have been based on the best
data which maybe available at the local level
The data may not be valid for the present year.
If the NEDS data base is to be used only qualitatively to identify major
emission source categories, the question of accuracy is not critical.
If the NEDS data base is to be used quantitatively for detailed emission
projections, however, an update of the NEDS data must be considered.
Extreme care must be taken that the level of detail chosen to update
NEDS will produce data superior to that already in the system.
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Instructions are included in the handbook for a substantial ex-
penditure of effort to update and improve the inventory of point sources,
and especially area source data. These calculations will also provide
a means of improving the accuracy of the NEDS file, and a means of
keeping the NEDS information current as required under the State
Semi-Annual Reporting requirements. Whenever the calculations pro-
duce a NEDS update, the appropriate NEDS data processing coding forms
should be completed as specified by EPA document APTD-1135 and sub-
mitted to the state pollution control agency for their certification and
subsequent transfer to EPA. In the event that no NEDS data exists for
the region in question, the emission inventory system used locally in
that region may be substituted for NEDS for the purposes of this manual.
Chapter IV contains the instructions for predicting future county
emissions. With respect to the validity of the projections developed
through use of this manual, there are a number of factors which should
be considered:
Effort Required in Preparing Projections - The instruc-
tions provide for a variable level of effort and resource
commitment in making emission projections. The confi-
dence placed in the projections should be proportional to
the amount of effort expended in preparing them.
Projections for Larger Than County Areas - The manual
has been designed to be used at the county level because the
county is the smallest geographic area for which uniform
activity and consumption data are usually available. Eco-
nomic growth projections are ordinarily developed for
larger areas (such as states) since state growth, because
of the "law of large numbers, " is considered more predict-
able. If projections are desired for larger geographic
areas based on the methodology presented herein, they can
be obtained directly by considering the larger area in its
entirety, rather than projecting for each county and aggre-
gating the results. This approach will minimize the effect
of intraregional shifts in industry and population.
Verification of Projections for Larger Areas - It is always
desirable to compare emission projections aggregated
from a number of counties to projections for larger geo-
graphic areas. Such geographic areas would include the
AQCR, SMSA or state. This comparison is especially
valuable if all the counties within the area are required to
submit emissions projections.
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5.
EMISSION SOURCE CATEGORIES
Chapters III and IV are devoted to baseline emissions calcula-
tions and future emissions calculations, respectively. A summary
list of data sources recommended for completion of the calculations
is included in the first section of each chapter. The remaining
sections describe how,to calculate base year or future emissions for
each of the following source categories:
Industrial processes
Fuel combustion
Transportation
Electricity generation
Incineration
Miscellaneous.
In each chapter procedures are given for aggregating base year
and projected emissions from the various source categories into the
standard NER format (Tables 7. 1 and 7. 2 in the Appendix).
The relationship between the manual emission source categories
and the corresponding NER sectors is as follows:
Manual Emission Source Categories
(In the order presented in the manual)
Industrial Process
Fuel Combustion
1. External combustion
2. Internal combustion
T ransportation
1. Highway vehicle
2. Off-highway
3. Rail
4. Vessels
5. Aircraft
' Electric Generation
NER Emission Source Categories
(Tables 7.1 and 7.2 in the Appendix)
Industrial Process
Fuel combustion, external
Fuel combustion, internal
Transportation, land vehicles,
light/heavy vehicles
Transportation, land vehicles,
off-high way
Transportation, land vehicles,
rail
Transportation, vessels
Transportation, aircraft
Fuel combustion, external and
internal
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.Incineration .
Miscellaneous
3. Evaporation
- Gasoline
- Solvents
2. Other
(1) Industrial Process
Solid waste disposal
Transportation, gas handling
losses
Miscellaneous
Miscellaneous
This section deals with point sources categorized under in-
dustrial process emissions. Industrial fuel combustion is not
included in this category.
Emission factors for process emissions are given in terms
of levels of output or production, and in many cases are functions
of industrial process used to produce that output. There are
thirteen subcategories of industrial process emissions:
Chemical manufacturing
Food/agriculture
Primary metals
Secondary metals
Mineral products
Petroleum industry
Wood products
Evaporation
Metal fabrication
Leather products
Textiles
Inprocess fuel
Other.
If a local emission inventory is substituted for NEDS, emission
data for secondary metals processes may be included in the data
for primary metals.
Inprocess fuel is fuel that undergoes combustion in the same
chamber with process contaminants and both process contami-
nants and combustion products are discharged in combination.
If a local emission inventory is substituted for NEDS, emission
data for this category may not be directly available.
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The probable growth rates for each of the above subcategories
are available from disaggregated national data (e. g. , OBERS).
Each subcategory, however, is comprised of many individual,
different processes. Therefore, it is logical to assume that
each process within the county will be reviewed on an individual
basis and the emissions calculated separately. This requires a
detailed point source inventory for the entire geographical- area.
Future industrial emissions are estimated by determining
as accurately as possible:
Output changes for existing plants, or expansion of
existing facilities .
Process changes
Changes in pollution control efficiencies
Relocation of new industries in the county which were
not present during the baseline year.
The quantitative methods for estimating growth given in Chap-
ter IV focus only on the first three factors. The mandatory
State Semiannual Report to EPA requires that NEDS, data for
new plants under construction be submitted, to EPA. This ref-
erence should be consulted concerning relocation of new plants
in the county in the near future. The best, sources of data on .new
plants in the distant future would be the county industrial zoning
board or a similar state agency which might be able to identify
new industries expected to locate in the county. Methods for
determining activity changes for existing plants are suggested
in the Chapter IV instructions.
(2)
Fuel Combustion
This section deals with emissions (both point and area
source) due to the direct combustion of fuels. External com-
bustion refers mainly to boilers. ; Internal combustion refers to
stationary, off-highway equipment, such as gas turbines and
reciprocating engines.
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Emission factors are given in terms of the fuel burned.
The fuels which are considered include:
Major fuels:
Coal (anthracite, bituminous, lignite)
Heating oil (distillate, residual)
Natural gas
Minor fuels:
Process gas
Coke
Wood
LPG
Bagasse
Other.
(3) Transportation
The following sources are considered in estimating emis-
sions resulting from transportation activity:
Highway vehicles: There are five types of such
vehicles which are the major sources of pollution:
Light-duty gasoline (LDV), automobiles, which
account for most transportation emissions
Light-duty gasoline trucks (LDT); these are
less than 8500 pounds gross weight
Heavy-duty gasoline (HDY); these are greater
than 8500 pounds gross weight
Heavy-duty.diesel (HDD)
Gasoline motorcycles QIC).
Emission factors for all vehicles are given in terms
of grams of pollutant per vehicle mile. Emissions
from the five above types can be aggregated into NER
format as follows:
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NER Category.
Light-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty diesel
Vehicle Type
Light-duty gasoline (LDV)
Light-duty trucks (LDT)
Motorcycles (MC)
Heavy-duty gasoline (HDV)
Heavy-duty diesel (HDD)
Off-highway mobile sources: Emission factors are
given in terms of fuel use.
Rail locomotives; Emissions are proportional to
fuel use.
Vessels: Just as for the above sources, emissions
are given in terms of fuel use.
Aircraft; Emission factors are specified in terms of
the landing-takeoff cycles (LTO), and by aircraft
type.
(4) Electricity Generation
This category covers point source emissions from elec-
tricity generation by power utility companies. Both internal and
external combustion equipment are considered. Although the emis-
sions from these sources are substantial, the estimation of pres-
ent and future emissions is made easier by the fact that com-
paratively good fuel data is kept for power plants, and growth is
planned well into the future. Emission factors are given in terms
of quantity of Juel burned and the sulfur and ash content of that
fuel.
(5) Incineration
This section includes point source emissions from govern-
ment incineration (which means any large-scale-operation by
federal, state, municipal or local government); point and area
source emissions from industrial and commercial/institutional
incineration; and residential area source incineration. The two
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primary disposal methods are open burning and on-site incinera-
tion; most other disposal methods, such as landfill, are re-
placing open burning and do not produce air pollution. Emis-
sions are calculated from the tons of waste burned and not from
the total amount of solid waste collected.
(6) Miscellaneous
This last section covers any other area sources not included
in the other categories. These miscellaneous sources are char-
acterized by intermittent emissions which may be substantial at
times and are frequently regional in nature. There are four
general subcategories of miscellaneous sources:
Solvent evaporation
Fires
Airborne dust caused by human agitation
Airborne dust caused by natural winds.
Based on data collected from air quality monitoring stations, it
is becoming more apparent that emissions from miscellaneous
sources are extremely important for some counties.
Two specific evaporative sources are considered in this
section hydrocarbon evaporation from the handling of gasoline
(primarily at the retail filling station), and evaporation from the
use of solvents (specifically in dry cleaning processes, surface
coating operations, industrial solvent use not covered by point
sources, and miscellaneous solvent use); evaporative emissions
from industrial point sources and bulk gasoline terminals are
considered under industrial processes. Emission factors are
based on the amount of gasoline sold (in gallons) and the amount
of solvent used (in tons).
Emission calculation procedures for the other miscellane-
ous sources are not included specifically in Chapters III and IV
because procedures for estimating emissions from these sources
are in the process of being modified and improved. The miscel-
laneous area source categories in Tables 7. 1 and 7. 2 have been
expanded from the categories reported in the NEDS system and
reflect the increasing importance associated with these sources.
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The user is referred to the most recent edition of APTD-
1135 for methods to estimate emissions from miscellaneous
sources. Additional guidance and directives are being developed
by EPA although the PEDCo and AIR I reports referenced in Chap-
ter II can be used as an interim guide for estimating fugitive dust
emissions.
6.
.GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS
(1) Provision for Variable Level of Effort
In Chapters III and IV, three different levels of analysis
are specified, both for baseline and forecast calculations.
Level 1 - This level relies on data published by
federal or state agencies, and does not involve inter-
viewing or a review of special county studies, like
land-use or transportation plans. It requires the
least time, and hence cannot be expected to result
in as accurate projections as the other levels. This
level can be used for orientation and preparation for
the other more complex levels.
Level 2 - The methods specified at this level lead to
projections of greater accuracy than those of Level 1,
but usually would require more time to complete. It
makes use of special data and studies done for the
county, such as transportation or land-use plans.
Level 3 - This level relies on extensive contact or
interviewing with organizations responsible for the
major pollution sources to determine present and
future emissions. It is the level leading to the most'
accurate projections; but as a result, the profes-
sional effort required is greater than that needed to
complete projections at the other levels.
It is recommended that Level 3 projections be used for all
source categories if the results will be used in the AQAIA pro-
gram or as input to any other program directed at formulating
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important policy decisions. Maximum resources should be
allocated for establishing a good baseline inventory and emis-
sion forecasts especially if costly pollution control programs
will be based on such data.
(2) Allocation of Resources
The source categories in Tables 7. 1 and 7. 2 in the Appen-
dix represent a summary of emissions in the county. For any
given county, some categories may produce most of the emis-
sions while others produce little or no emissions. Calculating
emissions in an accurate but efficient manner requires allocating
the appropriate effort and resources to each source category.
As noted above, three distinct levels of effort are defined in the
manual; this allows the establishment of an optimum allocation
of resources to develop the basline inventory and to project
emissions.
In Chapters III and IV, all source calculations involving the
same level of effort are grouped together; this format was chosen
for ease of use and was not intended to suggest that all sources be
addressed at the same level. On the contrary, the most time-
consuming but accurate calculations (e. g. , Level 3) should cer-
tainly be carried out for the major emission sources with propor-
tionally less effort (e.g., Levels 1 or 2) directed to minor or
negligible sources. The relative importance must be considered
in terms of the present emissions and the future activity if un-
usual growth is predicted.
The following categories are separated in Tables 7. 1 and
7. 2 in the Appendix:
. Industrial process
External fuel combustion
Internal fuel combustion
Electric generation
Light-duty gasoline highway vehicles
Highway vehicles
Off-high way vehicles
Rail
Vessels
Aircraft
Incineration
Miscellaneous.
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The NEDS report most useful for initially allocating re-
sources needed is the county NER. This report gives the annual
emissions for the county in the format specified in Tables 7. 1
and 7. 2. Emission from each of the categories listed above
should be reviewed to determine which ones are or are likely to
be^ major emitters in the county and thus should be the major
focus of the projection effort. The general procedure to be used
in performing such a determination is:
Determine a threshold percentage (e. g,, 5 percent)
such that any source category with emissions less
than that percentage of the total county emissions
would be classified as minor, and considered using
Level 1 or 2 techniques.
Apply the threshold percentage to the NEDS NER re-
port (specified in Chapter II) to determine which
source categories are minor.
Decide upon the level of effort to be expended on each
of the categories classified as minor.
After the inventory updating procedures in Chapter III are
completed, the finalized base year emissions in Table 7. 1 can be
used in the same way to allocate resources for the emissions
projections of Chapter IV.
One additional factor which should be considered when al-
locating levels of effort to the various source categories is the
potential significance of any errors which could result. Emis-
sions from industrial processes or electricity generation, for
example, might produce a situation where inaccurate forecasts
would have a profound effect on the projected emission profile for
the county.
7. ESTIMATING FUTURE EMISSIONS
(1) Introduction
Various methods for projecting change in activity level are
outlined in.the manual and there are a number of alternative pro-
17
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cedures which are suggested. In most case's the "default" pro-
jection reference is the AQCR or SMSA growth factor from OBERS. *
All growth factors, regardless of whether they refer to
population, fuel consumption or other parameters, are dimen-
sionless and are normalized to unity for the baseline year. In
this way, present activity can be scaled to produce future activity
expressed in the same units.
At some points in the instructions, individual interviews
are recommended to obtain baseline data and growth estimates.
The primary benefit of such interviews, in addition to correcting
gaps in the baseline data, is to identify major deviations from
historic or normal growth patterns and to identify special factors
influencing growth that cannot be determined from regional or
national forecasts. While it is anticipated that most interviews
will be conducted in person, telephone inquiries or mail question-
naires can also be used at the discretion of the manual user.
Accuracy, compliance, and time should be considered in such
cases. It must be emphasized that any interviews performed to
upgrade the data base or to project emissions must be conducted
under local or s,tate legal authority. . - .
While an interview program is an extremely valuable tool,
there are three factors influencing growth which even a complete
and extensive program will fail to quantify precisely:
Drastic changes in industrial technology
Unpredictable future developments (e.g. , the national
energy crisis)
Specific location of major new industries within the
county.
Regional projections of population, employment and earnings de-
veloped by the U. S. Departments of Commerce and Agriculture.
A more complete description is given in Chapter II.
18
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(2) Projection Techniques , ..
The two general equations for calculating point source
emissions are:
(Emission) =- (Activity) x (Uncontrolled Emission Factor) .
x (1 - Control Efficiency)
(Emission) = (Activity) x (Uncontrolled Emission Factor)
x (Sulfur/Ash Content) x (1 - Control
Efficiency)
These equations are as suitable for forecasting future emis-
sions from a given point source as they are for calculating base
year emissions. For process emissions the estimated activity
level (e. g. , throughput) for future years should ideally be fore-
cast by the facility operating the process. If this is unsuccessful
or impossible, techniques are specified in this chapter to deter-
mine future activity levels for individual processes by applying
generalized industrial growth patterns :(e. g. , OBERS). The pol-
lutant removal efficiency required for a given future year, how-
ever, cannot logically be obtained from the polluting facility since
such a number is solely a function of the legal requirements
placed on the source by the most stringent pollution control regu-
lation. Thus, the values for future process control efficiencies
and for future allowable ash/sulfur content must be calculated
by the user directly from the most stringent control policies,
regulations and compliance schedules. Anticipated emission re-
ductions due to the most stringent applicable regulations should
be converted into a single, equivalent control efficiency for each
point source and/or SCC process. This control efficiency value
for the process, one for each projection year, should also re-
flect the authorized timetable for achieving compliance with the
regulation.
Uncontrolled emission factors for each SCC code are pub-
lished in AP-42 and are independent from the control equipment
actually installed in a given facility. These uncontrolled emis-
sion factors are inherent to each process and remain constant
from year to year. Thus the same emission factor used for cal-
culating base year emissions can be used in the equation for cal-
culating emissions in the projection years.
19
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The above method for estimating future emissions assumes
that detailed information about activity level and compliance with
control regulations is known for each point source and SCC pro-
cess; in other words, a level three inventory update has been
completed in accordance with the procedures in Chapter III.
These details may not be available if only a level one or two up-
date has been achieved. For such cases, a method is needed to
"guesstimate" future emissions directly from the baseline emis-
sions given in Table 7. 1. Scale the baseline emissions for each
industrial category directly by a dimensionless growth factor for
that category, which includes the composite effect of expected
change in activity level and change in required emission control.
Procedures for developing the growth factors are specified later
in this chapter. This simplified procedure applies only to point
sources since all area source emissions are calculated directly
from the activity level, the emission factor, and the sulfur/ash
content.
(3) The Effect of New Source Performance Standards On
Forecasted Emissions
The value for the future equivalent control efficiency to be
"plugged into" the emissions equation is usually a function of the
laws and regulations already agreed upon by the State agencies
and EPA. There are, however, some industrial processes that
are now, or are likely to be, subject to Federal New Source Per-
formance Standards (NSPS). Some NSPS became effective in
1971 while others will be implemented in 1975. Still others will
probably be in effect by 1980 or by 1985. Preliminary estimates
of the emission reductions resulting from these promulgated and
proposed NSPS have been tabulated by EPA for use in Air Quality
Maintenance emission projections and can be obtained from the
AQMA representative in each EPA Regional Office. This refer-
ence specifies either the required control efficiency (percent re-
moval of uncontrolled emissions) or the maximum amount of
pollutant allowed per unit of activity for each process likely to
be affected by NSPS between 1974 and 1985.
Federal NSPS apply to the following industrial activities:
New equipment installed in an existing facility
20
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Replacement of. obsolete equipment within an existing
' facility
All equipment in a new facility.
Federal NSPS do not apply to utilization of idle capacity, however.
Thus, three different situations can exist for an industrial
process subject to NSPS:
The entire facility is subject to NSPS
Part of the production is subject to NSPS and no
other laws affect the remaining production
One part of the production is subject to NSPS and the
remainder is subject to a local agency regulation.
Exhibit 1 depicts plant information for a source that is
currently subject to a local regulation or compliance schedule
and also will be subject to a NSPS in 1980. The objective of this
example is to show, in general, how to estimate 1985 emissions
when one portion of the 1985 source production will be subject to
a NSPS and the remainder will still be subject to the local regu-
lation. This method is also valid when the NSPS is the sole con-
trol regulation affecting the industrial process. Before construct-
ing a graph similar to Exhibit 1, the following data must be col-
lected for the point source under investigation:
Production rate for the base year (obtained via inter-
views)
Design capacity (obtained via interviews)
Replacement rate of obsolete process equipment
(obtained via interviews or assume twice equipment
lifetime allowed by the Internal Revenue Service for
tax purposes*)
U. S. Department of the Treasury, Internal Revenue Service,
Depreciation Guidelines and Rules. Pub. No. 456, Washington,
D. C. , August 1964.
21
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EXHIBIT 1
Sample Plant Projections
en
LLJ
cc
a
z.
UJ
_l
<
(HV3A aad aaonaoyd SNOI 'a -D13A3T A±IAI±OV
22
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Future activity growth rate obtained via interviews
or from generalized growth projections (e. g., OBERS).
The following procedure was used to construct the graph in
Exhibit 1:
Draw a horizontal line representing the design capac-
- , ity for the year in which the NSPS becomes effective
Draw the expected activity growth pattern starting at
the production level for the base year
Draw a line representing the rate obsolete process
equipment is replaced; start the line on the year that
the NSPS becomes effective.
Line E-F represents the portion of 1985 production ex-
pected to be subject to the NSPS whereas line F-G represents
1985 production subject to the local regulations. Total 1985 emis-
sions are calculated by inserting the appropriate activity values
and required control efficiencies into the emission equation and
summing the results.
It has been assumed in the above example that the proposed
NSPS is more stringent in limiting emissions than the existing
local regulations. If this is not the case, the local regulation
should be applied to the entire 1985 production.
8. PROJECT ORGANIZATION AND PLANNING
Successful and efficient completion of both the update and projec-
tion calculations requires a well-organized management approach.
This section is intended to assist both the project manager and the
project staff in establishing the:
Specific tasks which must be completed , *
Interrelationship and time sequence of those tasks
Approximate manpower resources estimated to be re-
quired for each task,
and in preparing a detailed management plan for conducting the projec-
tions analysis for their county.
23
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The basic elements of a model management plan are presented,
in schematic form, in Exhibit 2. The column on the extreme left of
the exhibit, entitled, "Tasks, " lists 19 specific tasks which must be
completed; some of these are management tasks, some are technical
or clerical in nature. The tasks are grouped according to the four
general phases of the program.
Exhibit 2 also presents:
A schematic representation of the approximate relative
duration of each task, as shown by the length of the hori-
zontal bars on the example schedule
The approximate time sequence and interrelationship of
the tasks.
Manpower estimates, divided into management, technical (in-
cluding technical professionals and assistants), and clerical are to be
entered at the right side of Exhibit 2. Completion of this manual re-
quires inputs from all three skill categories and some tasks require
a mix of these skills. For each task and for each skill category,
space is provided to record the number of man-hours estimated to be
necessary and, afterwards, the amount of effort actually expended.
The far right column of Exhibit 2 provides space to enter a check
when each task is completed such that current status of the program
can easily be monitored.
Large variations from county to county can be expected in the
manpower requirements and duration of the emission inventory update
(Chapter m) and the emission projections (Chapter IV). This is due to:
Accuracy and timeliness of the NEDS data previously sub-
mitted to EPA under the semiannual reporting require-
ments
Number, type and distribution of sources
Availability of data within the county
Familiarity of personnel with emission inventory and pro-
jection techniques
Level of accuracy chosen for the calculations.
24
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c
-2
o
c
ctf
§
'S
tt
o
M
o
g
p.
;
^
s
3 §
"j Jj
S? 1
1 S
i S
TYPICAL TASK DURATION,
i
.
____
DDODD an na'an anaoDO an
"'I
[/'
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J r r M
.> !i 1 L I . I i 11
H HI i £ i H h i S i 1 h iS B 5
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25
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Once the above factors are determined, however, more precise
manpower estimates and task duration can be defined; this is one of the
initial tasks in establishing a useful management plan.
A complete description of each task in Exhibit 2 is given below:
Task 1; Orientation; Before proceeding further, it is
necessary to read and understand the scope and content of
the manual.
Task 2: Determine general emission patterns and specific
major sources in the county, and Task 3; Assign prelimi-
nary calculation levels for source categories: These tasks
are most critical since the efficient completion of the emis-
sions projections requires that major and minor source
types be identified so that resources can be focused on the
most important emission sources. (See a previous section
in this chapter, General Instructions, for the recommended
method. )
Task 4: Finalize time schedule and manpower requirements:
The manpower estimates should be entered in Exhibit 2.
Tasks 5, 6 and 7; Data from EPA Regional Office and from
sources in and outside the county: Required data should be'
identified and ordered as soon as possible to minimize the
effect of the lead time necessary in obtaining some of the
data, especially data obtained by mail. Data references
are summarized in Chapter II.
Task 8; Identify and contact key state or county agencies
and personnel: The instructions for projecting emissions
are based on a local approach to emission computations and
it is imperative that the best available local information be
used. This requires that a sound working interface be
maintained with those people in the county government who
are most familiar with the information needed.
Task 9: Schedule interviews with industry representatives
at major polluting plants: All interviews must be arranged
and conducted under local or state authority, not under EPA
authority.
Task 10; Review all input data: Most data sources will be
used a number of times, so the staff members who will be
using them should be familiar with their content. Also,
26
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some data sources are xrotaplimentary in that they must be
used together to provide some input parameter. This is
facilitated by a thorough understanding of their content. A
recommended approach for this task is.to classify the docu-
ments and establish a central file for use by air staff mem-
bers.
Task 11; Define final baseline and projection calculation
levels for source categories: It may be necessary to adjust
the calculation levels assigned in Task 3.
Task 12; Construct population and general growth projec-
tions: These may be developed from the OBERS data if no
better projection data are available. Instructions for this
task appear at the beginning of Chapter IV.
Tasks 13 and 14; Complete emission inventory update and
projection growth calculations; The work to be performed
for these tasks is discussed in Chapters III and IV.
Task 15: Internal review: The project, manager should
double check the calculations. Knowledgeable personnel
from key state or county agencies may participate in this
review.
Task 1.6; Aggregate county projections to AQMA level:
Note that projections must be made for all counties in the
AQMA. '
Task 17; Convert new inventory data to NEDS format:
Proposed EPA regulations stipulate that the upgraded base-
line inventory (point and area sources) must be converted
to NEDS format .and submitted as part of the AQM Plan.
This involves six steps:
Orientation to the NEDS system and coding proce-
dures - '
Code data onto NEDS coding forms
Keypunch the coding forms
Submit to EPA Regional Office for edit
Receive and review the error listings after edit
processing by EPA
Correct the forms, keypunch and resubmit.
27
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Task 18; Make copies of inventory data for local retention.
and Task 19; Submit results to EPA Regional Office: Re-
view by EPA will be aided if an effort is made to fill in all
tasks completely and to document data references, calcula-
tion methods and assumptions clearly. Exhibit 2 should
also be submitted.
9.
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
The definition of terms and acronyms used in this manual are
given below:
AP-42: EPA document, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emis-
sion Factors, including supplements
APTD-1135: EPA document, Guide for Compiling a Com-
prehensive Emission Inventory
AQCR: Air Quality Control Region
AQMA: Air Quality Maintenance Area
CBP: County Business Patterns, U. S. Department of
Commerce
CO: carbon monoxide
County shares: county portion of an activity level which is
defined or measured only at the state level
DD: heating degree days, available from a number of
sources, including Climatic Atlas of the U. S.. U. S. Cli-
matological Reports, U. S. Weather Bureau, or Journal of
the American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air
Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE)
Emission factor: factor relating activity levels to net
emissions for area sources, and to uncontrolled emission
for point sources
Equivalent control efficiency: effect of most stringent
applicable control regulations, expressed in terms equiva-
lent to control efficiency
28
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Gro.wth. factor: dimensionless .ratio of projected activity to
basel-ine activity
HC: hydrocarbon. (This term ordinarily indicates total
hydrocarbons. If only reactive hydrocarbons or non-
methane hydrocarbons are of interest, "reactive HC" or
"non-methane HC" may-be substituted for "HC" in the
manual; this fact should be noted on all documentation
and completed tables. ) . .
HC (evap): evaporative hydrocarbon
HC (exh): exhaust hydrocarbon
HDD: heavy-duty dies el vehicle
HDV: heavy-duty gasoline vehicle
h. u. : housing unit
LDT: light-duty truck (gasoline)
LDV: light-duty gasoline vehicle
Level: three levels of effort are given for the calculations,
referring to the level of detail specified and expected
accuracy
MC: motorcycle
LTO: landing-takeoff cycle
MIS: Mineral Industry Surveys, U. S. Department of the
Interior - . .
mpg: miles per gallon
NEDS: National Emissions Data System
NER: National Emission Report
NOX or NOX: nitrogen oxides
29
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NSPS: Federal New Source Performance Standards
OBERS Projections: economic projections developed by
the U. S. Departments of Commerce and Agriculture
PART: particulates
SCC: Eight digit EPA source classification code (e.g.,
3-01-001-01, adipic acid production, general cyclohex
process)
SIC: Standard Industrial Classification
SMSA: standard metropolitan statistical area
SOX or SOX: sulfur oxides
VMT: vehicle-miles travelled
30
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II. DATA SOURCES
The first step to be undertaken before any analysis activities
are initiated is to identify and obtain all pertinent sources of data.
The quantity and detail of the data required will depend on the level
of the forecast to be made.
Three general types of data sources are specified in the emis-
sion-calculation procedures:
Data published or supplied by EPA: The following data
should be obtained from Air Protection Technical Infor-
mation Center (APTIC) .or from the local EPA Regional
Office.
EPA documents:
Guide for Compiling a Comprehensive Emis-
sion Inventory (document APTD-1135). This
should be read before starting the calculations
because many of the procedures in the manual
are described more completely in this docu-
ment.
Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors
(document AP-42), including all supplements.
NEDS emission factors and source classifica-
tion codes (SCO listing.
Control Factor /Mobile Source Document
This preliminary document provides the latest
mobile source emission factors (Oct. .1974)
and estimated emission reduction due to pro-
mulgated and proposed Federal New Source
Performance Standards (NSPS).
Projections of Economic Activity for Air
Quality Control Regions (OBERS Projections).
Background information on this reference is
detailed at the end of this Chapter.
31
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Projections of Economic Activity for Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (OBERS Projec-
tions: Volume 5). Background information on
this reference is detailed at the end of this
Chapter.
Development of Emission Factors for Fugitive
Dust Sources (final report for contract number
68-02-0619), work performed by Midwest Re-
search Institute (MRI), June 1974. Report
EPA-450/3-74-037.
Investigation of Fugitive Dust - Sources, Emis-
sions and Control, work performed by PEDCo,
May 1973. Final report for contract 68-02-
0044, Task 9.
Point and area source data for the county from NEDS
in the following formats:
NEDS point source verification file data for the
county (point source printout)
Stationary source fuel usage report (fuel-data)
Area source report (fuel and transportation
activity data)
Actual/allowable emissions report
Listing by SCC code of point source emissions
and frequency of occurrence (number of points)
in the countv
A complete point source printout for the county
sorted by pollutant in order of annual emissions.
In case it is desired to repeat the emission projection
procedure at some time in the future, care must be
taken to use the most current NEDS data as a starting
point. The NEDS inventory is updated every six months
upon submission by the state of the required semi-
annual emission report. The most recent NEDS re-
ports for any county, AQCR or state can be ordered
-------
from the National Air Data Branch through the NEDS/
SAROAD contact at each EPA regional office, Allow
about 4 weeks for tabulation and delivery.
Data From Local Sources. There are frequently studies
and planning documents available at the county level which
can be used in preparing the forecasts and which are ex-
tremely valuable because they deal directly with the region
or county involved. In addition to published documents,
direct contact with the appropriate personnel in county
agencies or departments should be utilized at every oppor-
tunity.
In general there are four types of studies which, if avail-
able, should be located and reviewed before initiating work
on the forecasts
Transportation studies. These contain projections
for routes, traffic, demand, highway construction,
and may even predict vehicle emissions. Submission
of such studies to the U.S. Department of Transpor-
tation is in many cases required by law.
Land-use studies. These contain zoning and growth
information valuable in estimating local industrial
growth, commercial development and population
shifts.
Air quality or water quality studies. . These may
reveal new technical data on sources of air pollution
within the county.
Energy or Fuel-use studies. The energy crisis
occasioned a number of studies concerning fuel
consumption patterns.
Additional local data include:
Gasoline tax data
Proposed sewer system extensions
Urban renewal and reconstruction plans
Fuel data from dealers and utility companies
Refuse and solid waste studies.
33
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Data from sources outside the county. These references
contain data accumulated for geographical areas larger
than a single county. Typical examples are:
Mineral Industry Surveys:
"Sales of Fuel Oil and Kerosene"
"Natural Gas Production and Consumption"
"Sales of LPG and Ethane"
"Coal - Bituminous and Lignite"
from U. S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of
Mines, Washington, D. C.
Minerals Yearbook, U. S. Department of the Interior,
Bureau of Mines, Washington, D. C.
County Business Patterns, U. S. Department of Com-
merce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D. C.
The relationship between the CBP sectors and NER
process categories is denoted at the end of Chapter II.
1972 Census of Manufacturers, including Special Re-
port on Fuels and Electric Energy Consumed, U. S.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
Washington, D. C.
1972 Census of Transportation, U. S. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D. C.
1970 Census- of Housing, U.S. Department of Com-
merce, Bureau of the Census, Washington, D. C.
Federal Power Commission Form 67. Obtain from
FPC Regional Offices.
Steam Electric Plant Factors, National Coal Asso-
ciation, Washington, D. C. (or equivalent data from
the Federal Power Commission).
Highway Statistics, U,S. Department of Transporta-
tion, Federal Highway Administration, Washington,
D. C.
34
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Waterborne Commerce of the United States, U.S.
Department of the Army,
Orleans, Louisiana,
Corps of Engineers, New
Depreciation Guidelines and Rules, U.S. Department
of the Treasury, Internal Revenue Service, Pub.
No. 456, Washington, D. C. , August 1964.
- , .FAA Air Traffic Activity, U. S. Department of Trans-
portation, Federal Aviation Administration, Wash-
ington, D. C.
Military Air Traffic Activity Report, U. S. Depart-
ment of Transportation, Federal Aviation Adminis-
tration, Washington, D. C.
The edition of any data source used should, of course, be the
most recent available. The sources to be obtained should be identified
and ordered at the beginning.of the forecast effort. '
The OBERS projections for A.QCRS and SMSAs are available from
the EPA .Regional Office and ser.ve as general growth indicators or as
default growth factors if no better projection data are available. The
choice of which OBERS projection (AQCR or SMSA) to use should be
based on which region (AQCR or SMSA) corresponds more closely to
the AQMA ,in question.
The OBERS projections, cited on page II-1 and referenced many
times in the projection procedures, were, developed by the Office of
Business Economics (OBE), presently the Bureau of Economic Analy-
sis of the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the Economic Research
Service (ERS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The effort was
sponsored by the United States Water Resources Council. The pro-
gram was initiated in 1964. Projections of population, employment
and earnings have been developed by state, water resources area,
173 OBE economic areas, and AQCR and SMSA. Employment and
earnings projections are available for 37 industrial groups, mostly
consisting of two digit level SIC detail. Documentation of the projec-
tion methodology and preliminary projections of economic activity
35
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have been previously published by the United States Water Resources
Council (U. S. Department of Commerce and U. S. Department of
Agriculture, 1971). The projections are basically developed by a
computer model which projects the share of employment and earnings
by industry sector in each of the 173 OBE economic areas.
In some cases OBERS data for a particular industrial sector are
incomplete or have been deleted entirely to avoid disclosure of confi-
dential information. In these cases, other sources of projection data
must be consulted. Often these deletions are necessary to avoid dis-
closure of data pertaining to an individual establishment. If these
establishments can be identified and contacted, they may provide the
data required to make the growth projections.
The relationship between NER process categories and the cor-
responding OBERS industrial sectors is as follows:
NER Process Categories
Chemical Manufacture
Food/Agriculture
Primary Metals
Secondary Metals
Mineral Products
Petroleum Industry
Wood Products
Evaporation
Metal Fabrication
Leather Products
Textile Manufacture
Inprocess Fuel
Other
OBERS Categories
Chemicals and Allied Products
Food and Kindred Products
Primary Metals
Primary Metals
Other Manufacturing
Petroleum Refining
(Lumber Products and Furniture)
(Paper and Allied Products)
Total Manufacturing
Fabricated Metals and Ordnance
Other Manufacturing
Textile Mill Products
Total Manufacturing
Other Manufacturing
The relationship between NER process categories and the cor-
responding CpjJ£ty_^u£in£S£jPatterns_ sectors is as follows:
NER Process Categories
Chemical Manufacture
Food/ Agri culture
County Business Patterns
Categories
(Chemical and Allied Products)
(Rubber and Plastics Products)
Food and Kindred Products
36
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Primary Metals
Secondary Metals
Mineral Products
Petroleum Industry
Wood Products
Evaporation
NER Process Categories
Metal Fabrication
Leather Products
Textile Manufacture
Inprocess Fuel
Other
Primary Metals
Primary Metals
Stone, Clay and Glass Products
Petroleum and Coal Products
(Lumber and Wood Products) + '
(Furniture and Fixtures) +
(Paper and Allied Products)
Total Manufacturing
County Business Patterns
Categories
Fabricated Metal Products
Leather and Leather Products
Textile Mill Products
Total Manufacturing
Other Manufacturing
37
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III. EMISSION INVENTORY UPGRADING
AND UPDATING PROCEDURES
Chapters I and II of the manual should be read before beginning
the inventory update procedures. Chapter I, under Project Organiza-
tion and Planning, contains the recommended procedure for organizing
and completing the work specified in this chapter (inventory update)
and in the following chapter (emission projections). It also contains
a detailed description of: the specific organization, preparation and
documentation of tasks which must be completed, and the interrela-
tionship and time sequence of those tasks. Following completion of
all preliminary tasks, the update procedures should commence with
a review of three of the NEDS computer printouts:
Total emissions for each of the five criteria pollutants in
NER format
Rank order listing of point source emissions data
sequenced so that the largest emitters are reported first
Area source data.
The data are for the most recent NEDS inventory year and represent
the most accurate information available to the EPA. Local emission
inventories can initially be used instead of NEDS data to establish the
baseline inventory. It must be emphasized, however, that such data
must be converted to NEDS format prior to submission of the Air
Quality Maintenance Plan (AQMP).
The first step is to review these data to determine if there .are
any obvious errors or omissions of large point sources. The point
sources accounting for approximately 90 and 95 percent of the total
pollution, in aggregate, should be identified and marked on the point
source listing in an appropriate way.
If the county emissions data contain deficiencies or are out of
date, the inventory should be .updated using the instructions that follow.
In any event, it will always be worthwhile to carry out a Level 1 up-
date. More comprehensive inventory updates can be completed by
following the Level 2 or Level 3 instructions.
39
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AH individual point source data collected in completing the inven-
tory update should be retained especially if any air quality modeling of
the region is to be performed. Such data includes geographic location,
stack information and daily and seasonal variation in emissions.
The recommended source documents for emission factors are
AP-42 and the NEDS emission factor file. For area sources AP-42
must be used since the NEDS file contains no area source factors.
For point sources either can be used, but the NEDS file is preferable
because it is used by the NEDS emission inventory system.
The following explanations refer to the terminology used in Chap-
ters III and IV.
Three "levels" of effort are given for the calculations.
These were defined in Chapter I, and refer to increasingly
more detailed and time-consuming procedures. Alternate
"methods" are occasionally specified for a given level.
These are roughly equivalent in accuracy and complexity;
the choice of which one to use is determined largely by the
availability of data.
County share means the county portion of an activity level
(e. g., fuel consumption) which is defined or available only
for a larger geographical area.
A growth factor, also defined in Chapter I, refers to a
dimensionless ratio of projected activity to base year
activity.
A glossary of all other terms and acronyms used can be found at the
end of Chapter I.
The classification scheme recommended for categorizing indus-
trial process emissions is the SCC code because most emission con-
trol regulations and emission factors are specified on that basis.
While the NEDS emission inventory is also classified in that way,
other local emission inventories may be based on an industrial classi-
fication such as SIC codes. In that case, a mapping or correlation be-
tween the classification systems must be developed.
The procedures are described in the following sections for the
three levels of effort:
40
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(1) Industrial Process
(2). Fuel Combustion
(3) Transportation
(4) Electric Generation
(5) Incineration
(6) Miscellaneous.
41
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LEVEL 1 EMISSION INVENTORY UPDATE
The procedures used in this level require only a minimum of
data beyond that available from the EPA Regional Office. Specifically
it will be necessary to obtain data on:
Current county population
Employment (County Business Patterns)
Fuels used in the county in the base year.
The first step should be to obtain these data.
(1) Industrial Process Emissions
The Level 3 emission inventory update is recommended
for industrial process emissions because:
Net emissions from industrial processes are highly
dependent on the extent of emission control for in-
dividual point sources; aggregated source categories
only are considered in Level 1
Alany polluting industries are not labor intensive;
emissions are assumed proportional to employment
in Level 1.
1. Fill in columns 1-5 of Table 1.1* from the county
NER received from EPA.
2. For-each non-zero emission category, compute an
adjustment factor (f) using sector employment data from
County Business Patterns:
All tables and figures are included in the Appendix.
42
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£ = (sector employment in baseline year)/
(sector employment in NEDS year. ) ,
(County Business Patterns contains data in approximately
the same process detail as NEK process categories; see
comparison on page II-6. ) The factor f is computed to up-
date the NEDS data to the baseline year, since NEDS may
have become outdated. Enter f in column 6, Table 1.1.
3. Scale NER emissions (col. 1-5) by f to produce cur-
rent emissions and enter in columns 7-11, Table 1.1 and
in Table 7. 1. - -
(2) Fuel Combustion Emissions
1. From state energy studies or fuel statistics, deter-
mine state totals for use of each fuel by each customer
category (residential, industrial, commercial/institutional);
consult state fuel study or statistics.
2. If these data are not available, produce state sales
totals by customer category from the Mineral Industry
Survey (MIS) and Bureau of Mines data; make sure fuel
units used in these calculations are consistent (e. g. ,
1000 gallons of oil, not barrels)/ Procedures for deriving
this information for different fuels from MIS or Bureau of
Mines data are as follows:
(1) Oil
(Note: Table 2. 4 is used to allocate MIS oil
data to cust.omer category and is not to be used
for other fuels. )
Oil data in MIS is given in units of 100.0 ..
barrels. Convert these units to gallons
(42 gallons per barrel); use units of
1000 gallons in Table 2. 4. For your
state, enter in Table 2.4 (column 1
for residual oil, column 2 for distil-
late oil) the following data:
43
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Total residual heating oil sales
(MIS Table 7), * and total distil-
late heating oil sales, including
kerosene (MIS Tables 5 and 6),
enter on line 1
Sales for military use (MIS
Table 12), on line 6
Sales for industrial use (MIS
Table 8), enter on line 7
Sales for oil company use (MIS
Table 9), enter in line 8
Compute commercial/institutional em-
ployment percentage of total commercial
and industrial employment (from County
Business Patterns) and enter on line 2.
(Commercial/institutional activity is
equivalent to SIC 50-99).
Compute industrial employment percent-
age of total commercial and industrial
employment and enter on line 3; (indus-
trial activity is equivalent to SIC 20-39).
(The sum of the industrial and commercial/
institutional percentages must equal 1.00. )
Determine housing units using oil for heat
from Census of Housing, and compute
residential distillate use (in units of 1000
gallons) as: (h. u. using oil for heat) x
(0.18 gal/D. D. /h. u.) x (D. D. ) + (h. u.
using oil for hot water x 250 gal x . 001)
and enter on line 9, column 2. Enter the
amount of residual oil, if any, used for
The Table references given are for the 1970 edition of MIS.
-------
residences on line 9, column 1, if this
can be determined. Otherwise enter zero.
Note: D. D. = heating degree days, h. u. =
housing units. Use degree day data tab-
ulated ;for nearest reporting station.
Multiply line 2 factor by (line 1 minus
line 9) and enter on line 4; multiply line 3
factor by (line 1 minus line 9) and enter
on line 5. This produces shares of heat-
ing oil for commercial/institutional and
industrial use.
Total commercial/institutional use is the
sum of lines 4 and 6; enter on line 10.
Total industrial use is the sum of lines 5,
7 and 8; enter on line 11.
(2_)' Coal ,.: ,
Consult MIS, and in addition use NEDS and
state fuel statistics for coal use data. In using MIS,
assume that totals for "retail dealers" include all
residential and commercial/institutional coal use
and that industrial coal use is equivalent to the totals
for "all others. " Determine housing units using coal
for heat from Census of Housing. Residential coal
use may be computed as follows:
coal use (tons) = (h. u. using coal for heat) x
(0. 0012 ton/D. D. /h. u. ) x (D. D. )
To determine coal type (anthracite, bituminous, lig-
nite), see MIS and contact coal dealers.
(3) Natural Gas
Consult MIS, which contains data for the re-
quired,customer categories (residential, industrial,
commercial/institutional).
45
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(_4) Minor Fuels
Determine from county NER which fuels are
burned in significant quantities, then use NEDS, MIS,
and state or county fuel statistics to obtain customer
information.
3. The use of electricity, while producing no emissions
at the point of consumption, must be considered when de-
termining the base year Btu demand. Only the electricity
used as a substitute for fuel combustion, should be con-
sidered, however. This type of consumption includes pri-
marily space heating and cooling, and does not include the ,
use of electric appliances or industrial machinery. Deter-
mine the amount of electricity used for space heat in the
state (or in the county, if those data are available) by each
customer category (residential, industrial, commercial/
institutional). The best source of..this data is the Regional
Electric Reliability Council.
4. Industrial and commercial/institutional state fuel use
must be disaggregated into point and area sources. Point
source natural gas and distillate oil use must be further
disaggregated into internal and external combustion. (Fuel
use for all other fuels is for external combustion. ) Com-
pute the ratio of area source emissions to total emissions,
and point source emissions to total emissions, for each
fuel for industrial and commercial/institutional users from
data available from state or local air quality agencies.
Use these ratios to allocate the total county fuel use com-
puted previously to point and area sources. (Allocation to
point and area sources is not as important as determining
accurate fuel use totals. ) Consult any available state or
county fuel use data to separate natural gas and distillate
oil use into internal and external combustion.
5. Use the results of steps 1 to 4 above to fill in
Table 2. 5 with state sales totals for all fuels and customer
categories.
6. Determine the county share of the state totals in
Table 2. 5 for each fuel type and enter in Table 2.1.
46
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Apportion residential use by county share of
the total state dwelling units using each type of
fuel.
Apportion commercial/institutional use by
county share of population.
Apportion industrial use by county share of
manufacturing employees, adjusted by fuel
intensity use factors for each two-digit SIC
group. The fuel intensity use factors may be
calculated from data given in the current Cen-
sus of Manufactures, Special Report on Fuel
and Electric Energy Consumed. The data
given for dollar value of fuel sold may be
divided by manufacturing employment to pro-
duce fuel intensity factors for each two-digit
SIC group. In the absence of these data the
following nationwide averages may be used to
estimate fuel intensity ratios for SIC groups:
Fuel Intensity
Industrial Category Ratio
Food & kindred products 0.27
Textile mill products 0.13
Apparel & other fabric products 0. 03
Lumber products and furniture 0. 27
Paper and allied products 0. 69 ,
Printing and publishing 0. 04
Chemicals and allied products ../" °-88 ...-.',.-' '
Petroleum refining ' . 2.83 . .
Primary metals . 0.87
Fabricated'metals 0.13
Machinery excluding electrical 0.08-
Electrical machinery and supplies 0. 06
Transportation equipment 0. 09
Other manufacturing 0. 06
From County Business Patterns.
-------
The county share for apportioning industrial fuel use
is computed as follows. If e^ is the county employment in
sector i (e.g. , Food and Kindred Products), E^ is the state
employment in the same sector, and f^ the corresponding
Fuel Intensity Ratio (0. 27 for that sector), the county share
for any fuel is given by
where £ eifi = eifl + e2f2 + e3f3 + . . . .
and £ Eifi = Eifi + E2f2 + E3f3 +
7. Determine county gasoline and diesel use for station-
ary internal combustion for both industrial and commercial/
institutional users from contact with fuel dealers or from
available county fuel use data or studies. Enter in Table 2. 1,
8. Determine sulfur and ash content for coal and sulfur
content for oil consumed in the county. Consult the same
sources that were used previously:
State fuel studies
Bureau of Mines and AIIS data
NEDS data.
A weighted average for sulfur and ash content should
be used for a fuel if not all the fuel has the same content.
(For example, distillate oil with different sulfur contents
may be supplied through different companies. ) This
weighted average factor is formed by weighting the quantity
of fuel consumed by the sulfur or ash content of that quan-
tity. Enter the sulfur and ash content data in Table 2. 3.
9. Convert the county fuel use data in Table 2. 1 to
emissions by multiplying by:
The emission factor from AP-42 or the XEDS
emission factor file. Emissions from fuel
48
-------
combustion depend on the type and size of the
boiler. If most of the boilers are the same
type and size, the appropriate emission factor
can be determined easily. If this is not the
case, form weighted emission factors reflect-
ing the mix of boiler type and size, based on
data from distributors, servicemen or state
registrations.
The sulfur or a.sJh content, if applicable
For point sources, the equivalent control
efficiency required by future emission regu-
lations, including NSPS.
Enter emissions in Table .7. 1.
(3) Transportation
1. Highway Vehicles
Procedures used to estimate emissions from high-
way vehicles have in the past considered three major
vehicle classifications: . . .
Light-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty diesel.
These correspond identically to the vehicle categories
given in the NER. Emission factors for these categories
are given in AP-42. Highway vehicle categories have
recently been expanded by EPA to include the following:
Light-duty vehicles (LDV)
Light-duty trucks (LDT)
Heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (HDV)
Heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDD)
Motorcycles CMC).
49
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Emission factors for these categories from 1973 to 1985
are given in the Control Factor/Mobile Source document
referenced in Chapter II. Ideally the five vehicle classifi-
cation should be used to compute base year emissions be-
cause of the improved accuracy. However, the data re-
quired to apportion total gasoline sales to the various
gasoline vehicles, and average miles per gallon for those
vehicles, are still under development by EPA. Conse-
quently, calculations involving only the three vehicle clas-
sification are required for Level 1.
(1_) Determine total county gasoline and dies el use
for highway vehicles from county fuel sales statis-
tics. This method assumes that all fuel consumed
in the county is sold in the county. If only state
totals are available, compute the county share based
on vehicle registration or population. Use the county
share factor which seems most appropriate in terms
of vehicle use patterns in the county.
(2) If the county statistics include vehicle miles
traveled (VMT) for gasoline and diesel vehicles, enter
these data directly in Table 3.4. If not, from county
gasoline sales compute VMT for all light-duty gaso-
line vehicles (includes LDV, LDT and MC) from total
gas sales as: (total gas sales) x (89 percent for light-
duty gasoline vehicles) x (13. 6 mpg) and enter in col-
umn 1, Table 3. 4. Leave columns 2-3 of Table 3. 4
blank. Also leave line for growth factors blank.
(3_) Compute VMT for heavy-duty gasoline vehicles
(HDV) from total gas sales as: (total gas sales) x
(11 percent for HDV) x (8. 4 mpg) and enter in col-
umn 4, Table 3. 4.
(4) Compute VMT for heavy-duty diesel (HDD)
from diesel sales as (total diesel sales) x (5.1 mpg)
and enter in column 5, Table 3. 4.
50
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(5) To simplify this Level 1 inventory update,
estimate the speed correction factor for light-duty
vehicles according to the general type of roads
prevalent in the county. If the county is predomi-
nantly urban, use correction factors of:
0.8 for HC (exh) and CO
1. 1 for NO .
x
If the county is predominantly rural, use correction
factors of: , .''..'
0.6 for HC (exh) and CO . . .
1.3 for NO . . .-
X
Enter the speed correction factors in Table 3'. 4.
(6) The age distribution of county light-duty gaso-
line vehicles and the annual mileage driven by the
vehicles of each age group must be considered to
produce weighted emission factors for HC (exh),
CO and NO . For light-duty gasoline vehicles, the
equation for the weighted\emission factor
calendar year (n) and pollutant (p)-is
_
for
£
i
np
(c. x d. x f. x t.)
i, : i i ,, i
f. t.
where
i = age of vehicle
c.
i
d.
i
f.
i
t.
= the federal test emission factor for the model
year corresponding to vehicle age (i) at low.
mileage
= the controlled pollutant (p) emission deterio-
ration factor for model year (i) at calendar
year n
= fraction of total vehicles in use of age (i)
= average annual miles driven by vehicles of
age (i)
51
-------
Note that this equation is equivalent to the one given
in AP-42 but is expressed in a slightly different
form because in the above equation
The speed adjustment is assumed inde-
pendent of vehicle age
The expanded form of the weighted annual
travel term (m. in AP-42) is given.
A detailed discussion of this method, as well as test
emission factors and nationwide data which can be
used for f. and t. (if no local data are available) can
be found in AP-42. Calculation of weighted emission
factors using the above.equation, may be facilitated
by using Table 3.2 as a step by step work sheet.
Instructions for completing Table 3. 2 are given
starting on page 84.
Enter these weighted emission factors in Table 3. 4.
Enter emission factors for HC (evap), SO and
particulates from the same source in Table 3. 4.
If emissions in the county from heavy-duty gasoline
vehicles are sufficient to justify including the effects
of speed correction, vehicle age and model year dis-
tribution, pr-oceed in the manner used for light-duty
vehicles and enter the data in Table 3. 4.
(7) To compute baseline emissions, multiply the
baseline VMT by the speed correction factors (for HC
(exh), CO, and NO only), and by the highway vehicle
emission factors from the Control Factor/Mobile
Source document (for light-duty gasoline vehicles use
the weighted emission factors computed above). Add
HC (exh) and HC (evap) emissions to produce total HC
emissions, and enter baseline emissions in Table 7. 1.
52
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2. Off-Highway Vehicles
(I) Gasoline Vehicles
Determine off-highway gasoline use from
county fuel use data. Enter on lines 1-2,
Table 3.1.
If these data are not available, calculate
farm tractor'gasoline use by multiplying
the number of gasoline tractors in use in
the county by the consumption rate of
1000 gallons/tractor/year. If the number
of gasoline tractors cannot be determined,
assume 60 percent of all tractors use
gasoline. Calculate all other off-highway
gasoline use by multiplying county popu-
lation by an average factor of 13 gallons/
capita/year. Enter on lines 1-2, Table 3.1.
Compute base year emissions by multiply-
ing the fuel use for each category by the
emission factors from AP-42, add to pro-
duce total off-highway gasoline emissions,
and enter in Table 7.1".
(2) Diesel Vehicles
Determine off-highway diesel use from
county fuel use data. Enter on lines 3-5,
Table 3.1.
If these data are not available, calculate
farm tractor diesel use by multiplying
the number of diesel tractors in use in
the county by the consumption rate of
1000 gallons/tractor/year. If the num-
ber of diesel tractors cannot be deter-
mined, assume 35 percent of all tractors
use diesel fuel (liquid petroleum gas
accounts for the remaining 5 percent).
53
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3.
Rail
To calculate diesel use by construction
equipment, multiply non-building con-
struction employment (from County Busi-
ness Patterns) by an average factor of
5000 gallons/employee. Calculate all
other off-high way diesel use by multi-
plying county population by an average
factor of 7.4 gallons/capita/year.
Enter on lines 3-5, Table 3. 1.
If this estimation method must be used
(because county fuel use data are not
available), the results should be checked
by estimating state totals using the same
method and comparing on a state basis
with literature data. Off highway gaso-
line sales are reported in Highway Sta-
tistics and off highway diesel sales in AILS.
Compute base year emissions by multi-
plying the fuel use for each category by
the emission factors from AP-42, add to
produce total off-highway gasoline emis-
sions, and enter in Table 7.1.
Determine the county diesel fuel use for rail opera-
tions from available data in transportation studies or
directly from the railroads. If these data are not available,
use state fuel consumption data from the MIS, and compute
county share by scaling with miles of track in the county
divided by miles of track in the state or approximate by
county population share. Enter on line 6, Table 3.1.
4.
Vessels
(1) Oil
Determine county fuel use from interviews
with shippers or port authority. If this cannot be
54
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done, calculate dockside and underway components
based on vessel movement data from Waterborne
Commerce of the U. 5.
Dockside. Determine the average time
in port from port authority or shippers
(or use 3 days), then apportion oil use
as follows: 1900 gallons/day for resid-
ual, 660 gallons/day for diesel.
Underway. Usually diesel only. Deter-
mine total vessel diesel oil use from
interviews or published data; then sub-
tract dockside use, and apportion re-
mainder to ports by tonnage. If these
data are not available, county vessel
miles must be computed, and fuel use
estimated by using 19 gallons/nautical
mile for diesel, .and 44 gallons/nautical
mile for residual. See APTD-1135 for
a complete discussion of this method.
(2)
Coal
Determine county fuel use from interviews
with shippers or port authority, or get state fuel use
from Waterborne Commerce of the 'U. 5. ; calculate
county share by computing the tonnage ratio and
scaling state data.
(3_) Gasoline
Determine fuel use from county data or from'
studies on leisure or recreation. If not available,
interview gasoline dealers to obtain sales figures at
recreation sites, or use 160 gallons/year/vessel and
scale by boat registrations.
Enter fuel use by vessels (oil, coal, gasoline) as deter-
mined above on lines 7-10, Table 3.1, Compute base year
emissions.by multiplying fuel use by the emission factors
from AP-42, and enter in Table 7.1.
55
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5.
Aircraft
(4)
The activity from which aircraft emissions are com-
puted is landing and takeoff cycles (LTO). To determine
baseline emissions from aircraft, use county LTO data by
aircraft type; consult airports individually or county air
transportation plans or studies. If these data are not
available, determine state air traffic activity from FAA
statistics and disaggregate to the county level based on
county share of passengers and freight. Military activity
should be included. Enter in column 1, Table 3.5, Com-
pute- base year emissions by multiplying base year LTO
cycles for each aircraft type by the emission factors" from
AP-42, and enter in Table 1.1.
Electric Generation Emissions
Determine which fuels are burned in the county to generate
electricity (both internal and external combustion), the quantity
of those fuels, and sulfur and ash content, if applicable, from:
County or state utility commission data
Regional Electric Reliability Council data
Federal Power Commission Form 67.
Enter in columns 1-5, Table 4.1. A number of-blank lines are
provided in Table 5. 1 to allow for a number of different fuels
which may be used in the county; all lines may not be needed.
by:
Convert the future fuel use data to emissions by multiplying
The emission factor from AP-42 or the NEDS emis-'
sion factor file. Emissions from electricity genera-
tion depend on the type and size of the boiler. If
most of the boilers are the same type and size, the
appropriate emission factor can be determined easily
If this is not the case, form weighted emission fac-
tors reflecting the mix of boiler type and size, based
on data from the references given above.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable.
56
-------
For point sources, the equivalent control efficiency
required by future emission regulations, including
NSPS.
Enter emissions in Table I.I,
(5) Incineration
Compute base year incineration and open burning levels
from the nationwide average factors below unless it is known
that existing regulations on open burning contradict these aver-
age factors. Tonnage refers to tons of solid waste actually
burned, not total collected:
Residential open burning: 122 tons/1000 population/yr
Residential on-site incineration: 40 tons/1000 popu-
lation/yr
Commercial/institutional open burning: 12 tons/
1000 population/yr
Commercial/institutional on-site incineration:
50 tons/1000 population/yr
Industrial open burning: 160 tons/1000 mfg. employ-
ees lyr
Industrial on-site incineration: 335 tons/1000 mfg.
employee 3/yr.
County manufacturing employment data referenced above can be
taken^from county employment data or from County Business
Patterns.
Total industrial and commercial/institutional incineration
levels must be disaggregated into point and area sources. To
do this, compute point and area percentage ratios from the
county NER for each pollutant as:
(point source incineration emissions)
(total incineration emissions)
and
(area source incineration emissions)
(total incineration emissions)
57
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Enter the incineration levels in Table 5,1, and scale base-
line activity by the appropriate emission factors from AP-42 and
enter in Table 7.1.
(6) Miscellaneous Area Sources
1. Evaporation
(_!) Gasoline
Determine the total gasoline retail sales in the
county, either through interviews with dealers or
from the county or state tax agency. Enter the re-
sults in column 1, Table 6. 1. Convert to base year
emissions by multiplying by the emission factors
from AP-42; enter in Table 7. 1 on the line "gas
handling evaporation loss" in the transportation (area)
emissions category.
(2) Solvents
Estimate the amount of solvents used in the
county from the baseline population and one of the
following national average use factors:
County population less than 100, 000:
3 lb/capita/yr
County population 100, 000 to 500, 000:
8 lb/capita/yr
County population 500, 000 to 1, 000, 000:
18 lb./capita/yr
County population greater than 1, 000, 000:
28 lb/capita/yr.
58
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The factors above refer to the total area source sol-
vent use in the county, including dry cleaning, sur-
face coating and industrial area sources. Enter this
amount in Table 6.1. Convert to baseline:emissions
by multiplying by the appropriate emission factor
from-AP-42, and enter in Table 7.1, as the total for
the solvent evaporation category, under miscellaneous
area sources.
2. Other Miscellaneous Sources
Calculation of baseline and projected emissions for
these miscellaneous sources is not included specifically
in Chapters III and IV because procedures for estimating
emissions from these sources which were not regarded a-s
significant in the past are in the process :of being modified
and improved. The miscellaneous"area source categories
in Tables 7. 1 and 7. 2.have been expanded from the cate-
gories in the NEDS NER format, and reflect the increasing
importance associated with these sources. Space for re-
cording the calculations of miscellaneous emissions is
provided in Table 6.2.
59
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LEVEL 2 EMISSION INVENTORY UPDATE
In addition to the Level 1 data, it will be necessary to obtain
local planning data and air emissions data, as well as national data on
industrial activities. Specific data .sources to.be consulted include:
County industrial studies
County land-use plans
Current county emissions inventory
Census of Manufactures, Special Report on Fuel and
Electric Energy Consumed
Mineral Industry Surveys .
County Business Patterns
Fuel Dealer Sales Data
Vehicle miles traveled by vehicle type.
The first step should be to obtain the data.
(1) Process Emissions
The Level 3 emission inventory update is recommended
for industrial process emissions because net emissions from
industrial processes are highly dependent on the extent of emis-
sion control for individual point sources; aggregated source
categories only are considered in Level 2.
Use Method 1 if possible; otherwise use Method 2 or 3.
1.
Method 1
Review current county or state emissions data taken
from, local emissions inventory. Arrange raw data by SCC
as given in NEDS source classification code listing. Aggre-
gate this point source data to the NER sector level, and fill
in Table 7.1 with current emissions. If sufficient emis-
sions data are not available to do this, use Method 2.
60
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2. Method 2
(1) Fill in-columns 1-5 of Table 1. 1 from the
county NER.
(2) Compute the adjustment factor f using current
county employment data from the sources cited pre-
viously. This adjustment factor is used to update
" the process emissions reported in the county NER
to baseline year levels.
(3) Scale columns 1-5 by 5 and enter in columns
7~11 in Table 1.1, and in Table 7.1.
3. Method 3
Proceed as in Method 2 above, but use Table 1.3
instead of Table 1.1, and consider individual SCC pro-
cesses rather than aggregated process categories. Note
that the use of Table 1. 3 allows f factors for individual
processes to be used if available.
(2) Fuel Combustion Emissions
1. Determine state totals from state energy studies or
fuel statistics for use of each fuel by each customer cate-
gory (residential, industrial, commercial/institutional);
consult state fuel study or statistics.
2. If these data are not available, produce state sales
totals by customer category from the Mineral Industry
Survey (MIS) and Bureau of Mines data; make sure fuel
units used in "these calculations are consistent (e. g. ,
1000 gallons of oil, not barrels).1 Procedures for com-
puting this information for different fuels from MIS or
Bureau of Mines data are as follows:
61
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(1)
Oil
(Note: Table 2. 4 is used to allocate MIS oil
data to customer category and is not to be used for
other fuels. )
For your state, enter in Table 2. 4
(column 1 for residual oil, column 2 for
distillate oil) the following data:
Total residual heating oil sales
(MIS Table 7)*, total distillate heat-
ing oil sales, including kerosene
(MIS Tables 5 and 6) and enter on
line 1
Sales for military use (MIS Ta-
ble 12), on line 6
Sales for industrial use (MIS
Table 8), enter on line 7
Sales for oil company use (MIS
Table 9), enter on line 8
Compute commercial/institutional em-
ployment percentage of total commercial
and industrial employment (from County
Business Patterns) and enter on line 2
Compute industrial employment percent-
age of total commercial and industrial
"employment and enter on line 3 (The sum
of the industrialand commercial/institu-
tional percentage must equal 1.0.)
Determine housing units using oil for
heat from Census of Housing, and com-
pute residential distillate use (in units
of 1000 gallons) as:
The Table references given are for the 1970 edition of MIS.
62
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(h. u. using oil for heat) x (0.18 gal/
D. D. h. u. ) x (D. D. ) + (h. u. using oil
for hot water .x 250 gal x , 001)
and enter on line 9, column 2. Enter
the amount of residual oil, if. any, used
for residences on line 9, column 1, if
this can be determined. Otherwise enter
zero. Note: D.D. - heating degree days,
h. u. = housing units. Use degree day
data tabulated for nearest reporting
station.
Multiply line 2 factor by (line 1 minus
line 9) and enter on line 4; multiply
line 3 factor by (line 1 minus line 9) and
enter on line 5. This produces shares
of heating oil for commercial/institutional
and industrial use
Total commercial/institutional use is
the sum of lines 4 and 6; enter on line 10
Total industrial use is the sum of
lines 5, 7 and 8; enter on line 11.
(2_) Coal
Consult MIS, and in addition use NEDS and
.state fuel statistics for coal use data. In using MIS,
assume that totals for "retail dealers" include all
residential and commercial /institutional coal use
and that industrial coal use is equivalent to the totals
for "all others. " Determine housing units using coal
for heat from Census of Housing. Residential coal
use may be computed as follows:
coal use (tons) = (h. u. using coal for heat)
(0. 0012 ton/D. D. /h. u.) x (D. D. )
To determine coal type (anthracite, bituminous,
lignite), see MIS-and contact coal dealers;
63
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(3) Natural Gas
Consult MIS, which contains data for the re-
quired customer categories (residential, industrial,
commercial/ institutional).
(4) Minor Fuels
Determine from county NER which fuels are
burned_in significant quantities, then use NEDS, MIS,
and state or county fuel statistics to obtain customer
information.
3. The use of electricity, while producing no emissions
at the point of consumption, must be considered when de-
termining the base year Btu demand. Only the electricity
used as a substitute for fuel combustion should be con-
sidered, however. This type of consumption includes pri-
marily space heating and cooling, and does not include the
use of electrical appliances or industrial machinery. De-
termine the amount of electricity used for space heat in the
state (or in the county, if that data are available) by each
customer category (residential, industrial, commercial/
institutional). The best source of this data is the Regional
Electric Reliability Council.
4. Industrial and commercial/institutional state fuel
use must be disaggregated into point and area sources.
Point source natural gas and distillate oil use must be
further disaggregated into internal and external combus-
tion. (Fuel use for all other fuels is for external com-
bustion. ) Compute the ratio of area source emissions to
total emissions and point source emissions to total emis-
sions for each fuel for industrial and commercial/
institutional users from data available from state or local
air quality agencies. Use these ratios to allocate the total
county fuel use computed previously to point and area
sources. (Allocation to point and area sources is not as
important as determining accurate fuel use totals). Con-
sult any available state or county fuel use data to separate
natural gas and distillate oil use into internal and external
combustion.
64
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5. \3se the results of Steps 1 to 4 above to fill in
Table 2. 5 with state sales totals for all fuels and customer
categories.
6. Determine the county share of the state totals in
Table 2. 5 for each fuel type and enter in Table 2.1.
Apportion residential use by county share of
the total state dwelling units using each type of
fuel
Apportion commercial/institutional use by
county share of population
Apportion industrial use by county share of
manufacturing employees, adjusted by fuel
intensity use factors for each two-digit SIC
group. The fuel intensity use factors may be
calculated from data given in the current
Census of Manufactures, Special Report on
Fuel and Electric Energy Consumed. The
data given for dollar value of fuel sold may be
divided by manufacturing employment to pro-
duce fuel intensity factors for each two-digit
SIC group. In the absence of this data the
following nationwide averages may be used to
estimate fuel intensity ratios for SIC groups:
Fuel Intensity
Industrial Category Ratio
Food & kindred products ' 0.27
Textile mill products 0.13
Apparel & other fabric products 0. 03
Lumber products and furniture 0. 27
Paper and allied products . 0. 09
Printing and publishing 0. 04
Chemicals and allied products 0. 88
Petroleum refining .2.33
Primary metals 0. R7
Fabricated metals 0.13
Machinery excluding electrical 0. 08
Electrical machinery and supplies 0. 06
Transportation equipment 0. 09
Other manufacturing 0. 06
From County Business Patterns.
65
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The county share for apportioning industrial fuel
use is computed as follows. If 6i is the county employ-
ment in sector i (e. g., Food and Kindred Products), 'Ei is
the state employment in the same sector, and fi the corre-
sponding Fuel Intensity Ratio (0. 27 for that sector), the
county share is given by
where 2 eifi =
and £ E^ =
+ e2f2 +
+ E2f2 +
+
7. Determine county gasoline and diesel use for sta-
tionary internal combustion for both industrial and
commercial/institutional users from contact with fuel
dealers or from available county fuel use data or studies.
Enter in Table 2.1.
8. Determine sulfur and ash content for coal and sulfur
content for oil consumed in the county. Consult the same
sources that were used previously:
State fuel studies
Bureau of Mines and MIS data
NEDS data.
A weighted average for sulfur and ash content should
be used for a fuel if not all the fuel has the same content.
(For example, distillate oil with different sulfur contents
may be supplied through different companies. ) This
weighted average factor is formed by weighting the quantity
of fuel consumed by the sulfur or ash content of that quan-
tity. Enter the sulfur and ash content data in Table 2.3.
9. Convert the county fuel use data in Table 2.1 to
emissions by multiplying by:
66
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The emission factor from AP-42 or the NEDS
emission,factor file. Emissions from fuel
combustion depend on the type and size of the
boiler. If most of the boilers are the same
type and size, the appropriate emission factor
can be determined easily. If this is not the
case, form weighted emission factors reflect-
ing the mix of boiler type and size, based on
data from distributors, servicemen or state
registrations.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable
For point sources, the equivalent control
efficiency required by future emission regu-
lations, including NSPS.
Enter emissions in Table 7.1.
(3) Transportation
1. Highway Vehicles
Procedures used to estimate emissions from high-
way vehicles have in the past considered three major
vehicle classifications:
Light-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty diesel.
. These correspond identically to the vehicle categories
given in the NER. Emission factors for these categories
are given in AP-42. Highway vehicle categories have
recently been expanded by EPA to include .the following:
Light-duty vehicles (LDV)
Light-duty trucks (LDT)
Heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (HD.V)
Heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDD)
. Motorcycles1 CMC). .
67
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Emission factors for these categories from 1973 to 1985
are given in the Control Factor/Mobile Source document
referenced in Chapter II.
The five category classification is recommended for
estimating base year emissions provided that:
Sufficient VMT data for each of the five cate-
gories are available
T*ie base year is 1973 or later, which is the
earliest year for which emission factors are
given in the Control Factor/Mobile Source
document.
To be entered in Table 7. 1, emissions from the five vehicle
classification should be aggregated into the three vehicle
classification as follows:
NER Category
Light-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty diesel
Vehicle Type
Light-duty vehicles
Light-duty trucks
Motorcycles
Heavy-duty gasoline vehicles
Heavy-duty diesel vehicles
The methodology which follows is valid for the three
vehicle as well as the five vehicle classification.
(1) Determine measured county vehicles miles
traveled for the five vehicle classifications:
Light-duty vehicles
Light-duty trucks
Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty diesel
Motorcycles.
-------
Consult highway, transportation or air quality
studies. Enter VMT for all vehicles in Table 3. 4
and proceed to Step 3. If only total county vehicle
miles are measured and available from the sources
given previously, but not VMT for each vehicle
classification, proceed, to Step 2.
(2) If only total county vehicle miles are avail-
able from the sources given, this total must be ap-
portioned to'the five vehicle types. Use data avail-
able from the highway department or transportation
studies to disaggregate light- and heavy-duty mileage.
Light-duty vehicle mileage must be disaggregated
into VMT for LDV, LDT and MC. Guidelines for
doing so are still being developed by EPA. Until
these guidelines are promulgated, estimate the por-
tions based on highway department or transportation
studies; enter VMT for LDV, LDT and MC in Table 3.4.
Disaggregate heavy-duty mileage into VMT for HD_
and HDD as follows. Determine diesel VMT from
estimates of diesel fuel consumed in the county and
the factor of 5. 1 mpg for heavy-duty diesel vehicles;
enter in Table 3. 4. The heavy-duty gasoline VMT is
the total heavy-duty VMT, minus heavy-duty diesel
VMT. Enter in Table 3.4.
(3) To simplify this Level 2 inventory update, esti-
mate the speed correction factor for LDV according
to the general type of roads prevalent in the county.
If the county is predominantly urban, use correction
factors of: .
0.8 for HC (exh) and CO
1. 1 for NO' .
x
If the county is predominantly rural, use correction
factors of:
0. 6 for HC (exh) and CO
1.3 for NO .
x
Enter the speed correction factors in Table 3.4.
69
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(4) The age distribution of county LDV vehicles
and the annual mileage driven by the vehicles of
each age group must be considered to produce
weighted emission factors for HC (exh), CO and
The equation for the weighted emis-
for calendar year (n) and pollutant (p)
is
NO for LDV.
sion factor e
(c. x d. x f x t )
i i i i
np
f. t.
where
i = age of vehicle
c.. = the federal test emission factor for the model
year corresponding to vehicle age (i) at low
mileage
d. = the controlled pollutant (p) emission deterio-
ration factor for model year (i) at calendar
year n. "
f. = fraction of-total vehicles in use of age (i)
t. = average annual miles driven by vehicle of
age (i)
Note that this equation is equivalent to the one given
in AP-42 and the Control Factor/Mobile Source
document but is expressed in a slightly different
form because in the above equation:
The speed adjustment is assumed inde-
pendent of vehicle age
The expanded' form of the weighted annual
travel term (m. in AP-42) is given.
A detailed discussion of this method, as well as test
emission factors and nationwide data which can be
70
-------
used for f. and t. (if no local data are available) can
be found in AP-42 and the Control Factor/Mobile
Source document. Calculation of weighted emission
factors using the above equation may be facilitated
by using Table 3. 2 as a step by step work sheet.
Instructions for completing Table 3. 2 'are given
starting on page III-46. Enter these weighted emis-
sion factors in Table 3. 4. Enter emission factors
for HC (evap), SO and particulates from the same
2\.
sources in Table 3.4.
If emissions-in the county from other gasoline ve-
hicles (LOT, HDT or MC) are sufficient to justify ..
including the effects of speed correction, vehicle age
and model year distribution, proceed in the manner
used for light-duty vehicles and enter the data in
Table 3.4.
(5) To compute baseline emissions, multiply the
baseline VMT by the speed correction factors (for
HC (exh), CO, and NOx only), and by the highway
vehicle emission factors from the Control Factor/
Mobile Source document (for light-duty gasoline ve-
hicles use the weighted emission factors computed
above). Add HC (exh).andHC (evap) emissions to
produce total HC emissions, and enter baseline
emissions in Table 7. 1.-
2. Off-Highway Vehicles
(1) Gasoline Vehicles
Determine off-high way gasoline use from
county fuel use data. Enter on lines 1-2,
Table 3.1.
If these data are not available, calculate
farm tractor gasoline use by multiplying
the number of gasoline tractors in use in
the county by the consumption rate of
71
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1000 gallons/tractor/year. If the num-
ber of gasoline tractors cannot be deter-
mined., assume 60 percent of all tractors
use gasoline. Calculate all other off-
highway gasoline use by multiplying county
population by an average factor of 13 gal-
lons/capita/year. Enter on lines 1-2,
Table 3.1.
Compute base year emissions by multi-
plying the fuel use for each category by
the emission factors from AP-42, add to
produce total off-highway gasoline emis-
sions., and enter in Table 7. 1.
(2) Diesel Vehicles
Determine off-highway diesel use from
county fuel use data. Enter on lines 3-5,
Table 3.1.
If these data are not available, calculate
farm tractor diesel use by multiplying the
number of diesel tractors in use in the
county by the consumption rate of 1000 gal-
lons/tractor/year. If the number of diesel
tractors cannot be determined, assume
35 percent of all tractors use diesel fuel
(LPG accounts for the remaining 5 percent).
To calculate diesel use by construction
equipment, consult construction industry
representatives for estimated fuel usage.
If that cannot be done, multiply non-
building construction employment (from
County Business Patterns) by an average
factor of 5000 gallons/employee. Calcu-
late all other off-highway diesel use by
multiplying county population by an aver-
age factor of 7.4 gallons/capita/year.
Enter on lines 3-5, Table 3. 1.
If this estimation must be used (because
county fuel use data are not available),
the results should be checked by esti-
mating state totals using the same method
72
-------
and comparing on a state basis with liter-
ature data. Off highway gasoline sales
are reported in Highway Statistics and off
highway diesel sales in !MIS.
Compute base year emissions by multi-
plying the fuel use for each category by
the emission factors from AP-42, add to
produce total off-high way gasoline emis-
sions, and enter in Table 7. 1.
3.
Rail
Determine the county diesel fuel use for rail opera-
tions from available data in transportation studies or
directly from the railroads. If these data are not available,
use state fuel consumption data from the MIS. and compute
county share by scaling with miles of track in the county
divided by miles of track in the state or approximate by
county population share.' Enter on line 6, Table 3.1.
4.
Vessels
(1) Oil
Determine county fuel use from interviews with
shippers or port authority. If this cannot be done,
calculate dockside and underway components based
on vessel movement date from Water borne Commerce
of the U. S.
Dockside. Determine the average time
in port from port authority (or use 3 days).
then apportion oil use as follows:
1900 gallons/day for residual, 660 gallons/
day for diesel.
Underway. Usually diesel only. Deter-
mine total vessel diesel oil use from
interviews or published data: then sub-
tract dockside use, and apportion.remain-
der to ports by tonnage. If these data are
73
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not available, county vessel miles must
be computed, and fuel use estimated by
using 19 gallons/nautical, mile for diesel,
and 44 gallons/nautical mile for residual.
See APTD-1135 for a complete discussion
of this method.
(2) Coal
Determine county fuel use from interviews
with shippers or port authority, or get state fuel use
from Waterborne Commerce of the U.S.; calculate
county share by computing the tonnage ratio and
scaling state data.
(3_) Gasoline
Determine fuel use from county data or from
studies on leisure or recreation. If not available,
interview gasoline dealers to obtain sales figures at
recreation sites, or use 160 gallons /year /vessel
and scale by boat registrations.
Enter fuel use by vessels (oil, coal, gasoline) as deter-
mined above on lines 7-10, Table 3.1. Compute base year
emissions by multiplying fuel use by the emission factors
from AP-42, and enter in Table 7.1.
5.
Aircraft
The activity from which aircraft emissions are com-
puted is landing and takeoff cycles (LTO). To determine
baseline emissions from aircraft, use county LTO data
by aircraft type; consult airports individually or county
air transportation plans or studies. If these data are not
available, determine state air traffic activity from FAA
statistics and disaggregate to the county level based on
county share of passengers and freight. Military activity
should be included. Enter in column 1, Table 3.'5. Com-
pute base year emissions by multiplying base year LTO
cycles for each aircraft type by the emission factors from
AP-42, and enter in Table 7. l".
74
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(4). Electric Generation Emissions
Determine.which fuels are burned in the county to generate
electricity (both internal and external combustion),, the quantity
of those fuels, and sulfur ;and ash content, if applicable, from:
County or state utility commission data
Regional Electric Reliability Council data
Federal Power Commission Form 67.
Enter in columns 1-5, Table 4.. 1. A number, of blank lines are
provided in Table 5.1 to allow for a number of-different fuels
which may be used in the county; all lines may not be needed.
Convert the future fuel use data to emissions by multiply-
ing by:
The emission factor from AP-42 or the NEDS emis-
sion factor file. Emissions from electricity genera-
tion depend on the type and size of the boiler. If
most of the boilers are the same type and size, the
appropriate emission factor can be determined easily.
If this is not the case, form weighted emission fac-
tors reflecting the mix of.boiler type and size based
on data from the references given above.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable
For point sources, the equivalent control efficiency
required by future emission regulations, including
NSPS. .
Enter emissions in Table 7. 1. .
(5)
Incineration
Fill in Table 5. 1 using.county totals for incineration
sources and methods. If county totals are not available, use
state totals and compute county shares based on population.
Consult county solid waste studies and officials and land-use
plans. Convert this baseline activity to emissions by multiply-
ing by the emission factors from AP-42, and enter in Table 7. 1.
75
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(6)
Miscellaneous Area Sources
1. Evaporation
(1)
Gasoline
Determine the total gasoline retail sales in
the county, either through interviews with dealers
or from, the county or state tax agency. Enter the
results in column 1, Table 6.1. Convert to base
year emissions by multiplying by the emission fac-
tors from AP-42; enter in Table 7. 1 on the line
"gas'handling evaporation loss" in the transporta-
tion (area) emissions category.
(2) Solvents
Estimate the amount of solvents used in the
county from the baseline population and one of the
following national average use factors:
County population less than 100, 000:
3 Ib/capita/yr
County population 100, 000 to 500, 000:
8 Ib/capita/yr
County population 500, 000'to 1, 000, 000:
18 Ib/capita/yr
County population greater than 1, 000, 000:
28 Ib/capita/yr.
The factors above refer to the total area source sol-
vent use in the county, including dry cleaning, sur-
face coating and industrial area sources. Enter this
amount in Table 6.1. Convert to baseline emissions
by multiplying by the appropriate emission factor
from AP-42, and enter in Table 7.1, as the total for
the solvent evaporation category, under miscellaneous
area sources.
76
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2.
Other Miscellaneous Sources
Calculation of baseline and projected emissions for
these miscellaneous sources is not included specifically
in'Chapters III. and IV because procedures for estimating
emissions from these sources which were not regarded as
significant in the past are in the process of being modified
and improved. The miscellaneous area source categories
given in Tables 7. 1 and 7. 2 have been expanded from the
categories given in the NEDS NER format, and reflect the
increasing importance associated with these sources.
Space for recording the calculations of miscellaneous
emissions is provided in Table 6.2.
77
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LEVEL 3 EMISSION INVENTORY UPDATE
The methods used in this section require not only data from local
and national sources but current technical data obtained directly from
detailed, in-depth interviews with plant representatives in the county
responsible for the majority of the pollution. Data requirements for
use in the interview program are given in the Appendix. Other data
sources include:
Waterborne Commerce of the U. S.
Federal Highway Administration, Highway Statistics
Industry association data on fuel use
National census of transportation.
(1) Industrial Process Emissions
1.
Method 1
(!_) From the NEDS plant ID sort .(total process
emissions per plant), determine those' plants which
together produce 95 percent of particulate process
emissions; do the same for the other four pollutants.
This identifies the plants producing the largest
emissions per plant.
(2_) Because one plant may be a major source for
one pollutant, but not for another pollutant, the
plants determined above may produce more than
95 percent of the emissions in one category. Thus.
a factor must be computed to correct the totals for
those plants not interviewed. Add up from the
county NER all the pollutants produced by the above
plants and enter on line 1, Table 1.2. Enter the
total process emissions from the county NER and
enter on line 2, Table 1.2. Compute the correction
factor (line 2 divided by line 1) for each pollutant and
enter on line 3.
78
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(3) Interview all those plants designated in Step 1
arid determine current plant throughput for each SCC
process. See data requirements, Figure 1. Multi-
ply throughput for each SCC from each plant by the
emission factors from NEDS and enter in columns 3-7,
Table 1.3.
(4) Multiply each emission level for each SCC pro-
cess by the correction factor for that pollutant (to
correct for plants not interviewed) from Table 1. 2
and enter the results in columns 9-13, Table 1.3.
(5_) Sum emissions for all SCC processes in each
NER process category and enter in Table 7.1.
Use Methods 2 or 3 if staff resources are not sufficient for
Method 1.
2.
Method 2
Follow the same procedure as given in Method 1,
but use 90 percent instead of 9.5 percent as the cutoff point.
3.
Method 3
Follow the same procedure as given in Method 1.
but contact those plants producing 90 percent of the, single
most important pollutant instead of all five pollutants.
(2)
Fuel Combustion Emissions
1. Identify those fuels which are consumed in the
county in substantial amounts; include any fuel not shown
on the NER but which is known to be used significantly.
79
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2. Determine the total amount of each fuel consumed
in the county, including gasoline and diesel used for sta-
tionary internal combustion. (This sometimes must be
considered equivalent to the amount sold, ) Consult:
Fuel dealers
County fuel use data
Energy or air quality studies
Industry associations (AGA, XPC, XCA).
This data search may include customer information,
If not, the customer share of each fuel must be deter-
mined as follows:
Residential. First determine from fuel dealers
(or rely on county NER) whether any residual
oil is used, and if so, determine the residual
to distillate proportion. Then fuel use can be
calculated as:
(. 01288 x D. D. + [30. 41 x (avg rooms/h. u. )]
+ 79.54)/F, where
D. D. = degree days
h. u. = housing unit
F = fuel heat constant factor for ea.ch fuel:
Anthracite coal: 22. 0, for fuel use in tons
Bituminous coal: 25. 0, for fuel use in tons
Natural gas: 1.0, for fuel use in thousand
cubic feet
Distillate oil: 0.14, for fuel use in gallons
Residual oil: 0.15. for fuel use in gallons
Wood: 17.0, for fuel use in tons
LPG: 0.095, for fuel use in gallons.
80
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Industrial. Interview major polluters to
determine types and quantity of fuel used for
both internal and external combustion. Tech-
nical data to be.requested are specified in
Exhibit 1 in the Appendix.
Commercial/Institutional. Interview major
polluters including hospitals, hotels, schools,
colleges, and laundries; determine type and
quantity of fuel used for both internal and ex-
ternal combustion. Technical data to be re-
quested are specified in Exhibit 2 in the
Appendix.
3. The use of electricity, while producing no emissions
at the point of consumption, must be considered when de-
termining the base year Btu demand. Only the elertrioitv
used as a substitute for fuel combustion should be considered,
however. This type of consumption includes primarily space
heating and cooling., and does not include the use of e'.e . trir
appliances or industrial machinery. Determine the amount
of electricity used for space heat in the state (or in the
county, if that data are available) by each cus;on">er cate-
gory (residential, industrial, commercial/institutional).
The best source of this data is the Regional Electri.-
Reliability Council.
4. Industrial and commercial/institutional fuel /se Tor
external combustion must be disaggregated into pcr'nt and
area sources. This can be done based on the mtc rviev.
results or county fuel statistics. (Allocation to point and
area sources is not,,as important as determining accurate
fuel use totals. ) State or local air quality agencies may
have a point source fuel use inventory. In this case, area
source fuel use is given as the total fuel use minus the
sum of the point source fuel use.
5. Determine the sulfur and ash content for coal, and
the sulfur content for oil burned in the county. Consult
the same sources that were used previously:
81
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Results of interviews with industries and fuel
dealers .
Bureau of Alines and A1IS data referenced in,
Chapter II
Local emission inventory data.
A weighted average for sulfur and ash content should
be used for a fuel if not all the fuel used in the county has
the same content, e.g. , distillate oil with different sulfur
contents. This weighted average factor is formed by
weighting the quantity of fuel consumed by the sulfur or
ash content of that quantity.
6.
Enter the above data in Tables 2. 1 and 2.3.
7. Convert the fuel use data in Table 2. 1 to emis-
sions by multiplying by:
The emission factor from AP-42 or the NEDS
emission factor file. Emissions from fuel
combustion depend on the type and size of the
boiler. If most of the boilers are the same
type and size, the appropriate emission factor
can be determined easily. If this is not the
case, fuel consumption for each source should
be multiplied by the emission factor for that
source; the emissions should be aggregated to
totals for each fuel.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable.
For point sources, the equivalent control
efficiency required by future emission regula-
tions, including NSPS.
Enter emissions in Table 7.1.
82
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Transportation
1. Highway Vehicles . -
Procedures used to estimate emissions from high-
way vehicles have in the past considered three major
vehicle classifications:
Light-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty gasoline
.- . Heavy-duty diesel.
These correspond identically to the vehicle categories
given in the NER, Emission factors for these categories
are given in AP-42. Highway vehicle categories have
recently been expanded by EPA to include the following:
-Light-duty vehicles (LDV)
I,ight-duty trucks (LDT)
Heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (RDM-
Heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDD)
Motorcycles (MC). - . '
Emission factors for these categories are given in the
Control Factor/Mobile Source document referenced in
Chapter II. The-five category classification is recom-
mended for estimating base year emissions provided that:
- . - Sufficient VIXIT data for each of the five
categories are available
The base year is 1973 or later., which is the
earliest year for which emission factors are
given in the Control Factor/Mobile Source
document.
To be entered in Table 7.1, emissions from the five
vehicle classification should be aggregated into the three
vehicle NER classification as follows:
83
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NER Category
Light-duty gasoline
Vehicle Type
Light-duty vehicles
Light-duty trucks
Motorcycles
Heavy-duty gasoline Middle-duty vehicles
Heavy-duty diesel Heavy-duty dies'el vehicles
If the three vehicle classification is to be used, proceed
as given below. If the five vehicle classification is to be
used, omit the following section and proceed to section (2).
(1)
Three Vehicle Classification
1_. Determine county VMT for each vehicle
category from local traffic surveys or trans-
portation studies.
2_. If only total VMT for all vehicles are
measured and available, follow the instructions
given in Level 2 to compute VMT for each
vehicle category.
3_. The age distribution of county light duty-
vehicles and the annual mileage driven by the
vehicles 'of each age group must be considered
to produce weighted emission factors for HC
(exh), CO and NOX for light-duty vehicles. The
equation for weighted emission factors appears
on page 70. Table 3.2 is a step by step
work sheet for performing the calculations
specified by that equation; instructions for
completing that Table are given below.
For light-duty gasoline vehicles, pro-
ceed as follows:
84
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The table references below are for
Table 3. 2 unless otherwise speci-
fied. Fill in line 2 with the model
year corresponding to the vehicle
age on line 1. A vehicle age of one
year corresponds to the baseline
year.
Enter deterioration factors (Table
3. 1. 2-5 or 3. 1. 2-6 in AP-42) for
vehicle age and model year on lines
7-9. . ' . .
Enter test emission factors (Table
3. 1. 2-1 or 3. 1. 2-2 in AP-42) on
lines 10-15. If state mobile source
emission regulations are more strin-
gent, they should be used instead.
On line 3, enter the fraction of total
vehicles in use in the county for each
age group. On line 4, enter the average
miles traveled per year for vehicles of
each age group. Note that the sum of
the VMT fractions should equal one.
Use state or county data for light-duty
gasoline vehicles if they are avail-
able, otherwise use the national data
in Table 3. 1, 2-7, AP-42. :
For each vehicle age group (each
column), multiply line 3 by line 4
and enter in line 5. Add up all the
entries in line 5 and enter in the far
right column of line 5. For each ve-
hicle age group (each column) divide
line 5 by the sum for line 5 (shown
as
f.t.1
i i
in Table 3. 2) and enter in
line 6. This produces the weighted
annual travel for each vehicle age
group.
85
-------
Multiply weighted annual travel (line
6) by deterioration factors (lines 7-9)
and by test emission factors (lines 10-
15) to produce weighted emission
factors, and enter on lines 16-21.
Note that deterioration affects only
HC (exhaust), CO and NO emis-
v-
sions.
Fill in column 1, Table 3.3, with
road speed categories, either
Urban (avg 25 mph), rural
(avg 45 mph)
Limited access (avg 55 mph)
rural (avg 45 mph), suburban
(avg 35 mph), and urban (avg
25 mph)
Average speeds other than the
above may be used if they are more
appropriate for the county.
In column 2, Table 3. 3, enter the
fraction of VMT traveled at the
corresponding road speed category.
If. local data are not available, refer
to FHWA Highway Statistics and ad-
just the state proportions to county
factors after, consulting with the
county highway department.
From Figure 3. 1. 1-1 of AP-42,
determine the speed correction
factor for CO, NO , and HC
(exhaust) for each average road
speed category, and enter in col-
umns 3-5, Table 3.3.
For each line in Table 3.3, multi-
ply column 2 by correction factors
in columns 3-5 and enter in columns
6-8. ,. '
-------
Add up columns 6-8, Table 3.3, to
produce a speed correction factor
for HC (exhaust), NO and CO
.X
emissions. Enter in Table 3.4.
To compute baseline emissions for
light-duty gasoline vehicles, multiply
the baseline VMT by the speed cor-
rection factors (for HC (exh), CO,
and NO only), and by the highway
vehicle emission factors from the
Control Factor/Mobile Source
document (for light-duty gasoline
vehicles use the weighted emission
factors computed above). Add HC
(exh) and HC (evap) emissions to
produce total HC emissions, and
enter baseline emissions in Table 7.1.
4. For all other highway vehicles, proceed
as follows: . . .
If emissions in the county from
other gasoline vehicles (LDT, HOT
or MC) are sufficient to justify in-
cluding the effect of speed correc-
tion, vehicle age and model year
distribution, complete a Table 3.2
and a Table 3.3 for those vehicle
types.
Otherwise, mul'.iply VMT in Table
3.4 by the emission factors from
' AP-42 or the Control Factor/
Mobile Source document to com-
pute base year emissions, and
enter in Table: 1.1.
87
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(2) Five Vehicle Classification
1. Determine county VMT for each vehicle
category from'local traffic surveys or trans-
portation studies. Enter in Table 3.4.
2. If only total VMT for all vehicles are
measured and available, follow the instructions
given in Level,2 to compute VMT for each ve-
hicle category. Enter in Table 3.4.
3. The age distribution of county LDV.and
the annual mileage driven by the vehicles of
each age group must be considered to produce
weighted emission factors for HC (exh), CO
and NO for LDV. The equation for weighted
emission factors appears on page 70.
Table 3.2 is a step by step work sheet for
performing the calculations specified by that
equation; instructions for completing that
Table are given below. ,
For light-duty vehicles (LDV), proceed as
follows:
The Table references below are for
Table 3. 2 unless otherwise specified.
Fill in line 2 with the model year
corresponding to the vehicle age
on line 1. A vehicle age of one year
corresponds to the baseline year.
Since the effect of deterioration of
pollution control devices with age
is included in the emission factors
given in the Control Factor/Mobile
Source document, leave lines 7-9
blank.
88
-------
Enter test emission factors on
lines 10-15 from Control Factor/
Mobile Source document.
On line 3, enter the fraction of total
vehicles in use in the county for each
age group. On line 4, enter average
miles traveled by vehicles of each
age group. Note that the sum of the
VMT fractions should equal one. Use
either the national data in Table
3. 1. 2. 7 in AP-42, or state or county
data for light-duty gasoline vehicles
if they are available.
For each vehicle age group (each
column), multiply line 3 by line 4
and enter in line 5. Add up all the
entries in line 5 and enter in the far
right column of line 5. For each
vehicle age group (each column)
divide line 5 by the sum for line 5
(shown as "I f.t." in Table 3. 2) and
11
enter in line 6. This produces the
weighted annual travel for each ve-
hicle age group.
Multiply weighted annual travel (line
6) by test emission factors (lines 10-
15) to produce weighted emission
factors, and enter on lines 16-21,
Fill in column 1, Table 3.3, with
road speed categories, either
Urban (avg 25 mph), rural
(avg 45 mph)
Limited access (avg 55 mph).,
rural (avg 45 mph), suburban
(avg 35 mph), and urban
(avg 25 mph)
89
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Average speeds other than the
above may be used if they are more
appropriate for the county.
In column 2, Table 3.3, enter the
fraction of VMT traveled at the
corresponding road speed category.
If local data are not available, refer
to FHWA Highway Statistics and ad-
just the state proportions to county
factors after consulting with the
county highway department.
From the Control Factor/Mobile
Source document, determining the
speed correction factor for CO,
NO , and HC (exhaust) for each
X.
average road speed category, and
enter in columns 3-5, Table 3.3.
For each line in Table 3.3, multi-
ply column 2 by corrections factors
in columns 3-5 and enter in col-
umns 6-8.
Add up columns 6-8, Table 3. 3, to
produce a speed correction factor
for HC (exhaust), NO and CO emis-
x
sions. Enter in Table 3.4.
To compute baseline emissions for
light-duty gasoline vehicles, multi-
ply the baseline VMT by the speed
correction factors (for HC (exh), CO,
and NO^ only), and by the highway
vehicle emission factors from the
Control Factor/Mobile Source docu-
ment (for light-duty gasoline vehicles
use the weighted emission factors
computed above). Add HC (exh) and
HC (evap) emissions to produce total
HC emissions, and enter baseline
emissions in Table 7. 1.
90
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4. For all other highway vehicles, proceed
as follows:
If emission in the county from other
gasoline vehicles (LDT, HDV or _AIC)
are sufficient to justify including the
effect of speed correction, vehicle
age and model year distribution,
complete a Table 3. 2 and a Table
3.3 for these vehicle types.
Otherwise, multiply VMT in Table
3.4 by the emission factors from
the. Control Factor /Mobile Source _..
document to compute base year
emissions, and enter in Table 7. 1.
2. Off-Highway Vehicles
(1) Gasoline Vehicles
Determine off-highway gasoline use from
county fuel use data. Enter on lines 1-2,
Table 3.1. .
If these data are not available, calculate
farm tractor gasoline use by multiplying
the number of gasoline tractors in use in
the county by the consumption rate of
1000 gallons /tractor /year. If the number
of gasoline tractors cannot be determined,
assume 60 percent of all tractors use gas-
oline. Calculate all other off-highway
gasoline use by multiplying county popula-
tion by an average factor of 13 gallons/
capita/year. Enter on lines 1-2, Table 3.1,
Compute base year emissions by multi-
plying the fuel use for each category by
the emissions factors from AP-42, add
to produce total off-highway gasoline
emissions, and enter in Table 7.1.
91
-------
(2)
Diesel Vehicles
Determine off-highway diesel use from
county fuel use data. Enter on lines 3-5,
Table 3.1.
If these data are not available, calculate
farm tractor diesel use by multiplying
the number of diesel tractors in use in
the county by the consumption rate of
1000 gallons/tractor/year. If the number
of diesel tractors cannot be determined,
assume 35 percent of all tractors use
diesel fuel (LPG accounts for the remain-
ing 5 percent). To calculate diesel use
by construction equipment, consult con-
struction industry representatives for
estimated fuel usage. If that cannot be
done, multiply non-building construction
employment (from County Business
Patterns) by an average factor of 5000
gallons/employee. Calculate all other
off-highway diesel use by multiplying
county population by an average factor
of 7.4 gallons/capita/year. Enter on
lines 3-5, Table 3.1.
If this estimation method must be used
(because county fuel use data are not
available), the results should be checked
by estimating state totals using the same
method and comparing on a state basis
with literature data. Off highway gaso-
line sales are reported in Highway
Statistics and off highway diesel sales
in MIS.
Compute base year emissions by multi-
plying the fuel use for each category by
the emission factors from AP-42, add
to produce total off-highway gasoline
emissions, and enter in Table 7.1.
92
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3.
Rail
Determine the county diesel fuel use for rail opera-
tions from available data in transportation studies or
directly from the railroads. If these data are not available,
use state fuel consumption data from the MIS, and compute
county share by scaling with miles of track in the county
divided by miles of track in the state or approximate by
county population share. Enter on line 6, Table 3.1.
4.
Vessels
(1) Oil
Determine county fuel use from interviews with
shippers or port authority. If this cannot be done,
calculate dockside and underway components based on
vessel movement data from Waterborne Commerce
of the U.S.
Dockside. Determine the average time
in port from port authority or shippers
(or use 3 days), then apportion oil use as
follows: 1900 gallons/day for residual,
660 gallons/day for diesel.
Underway. Usually diesel,only. Deter-
mine total vessel diesel oil use from
interviews or published data; then
subtract dockside use, and apportion
remainder to ports by tonnage. If these
data are not available, county vessel
miles must be computed, and fuel use
estimated by using 19 gallons/nautical
mile for residual. See Chapter 5 of
APTD-1135 for a complete discussion
of this method.
93
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(2) Coal
Determine county fuel use from interviews with
shippers or port authority, or get state fuel use from
Waterborne Commerce of the U.S. ; calculate county
share by computing the tonnage ratio and scaling
state data.
(3_) Gasoline
Determine fuel use from county data or from
studies on leisure or recreation. If not available,
interview gasoline dealers to obtain sales figures at
recreation sites, or use 160 gallons/year/vessel and
scale by boat registrations.
Enter fuel use by vessels (oil, coal, gasoline) as deter-
mined above on lines 7-10, Table 3.1. Compute base year
emissions by multiplying fuel use by the emission factors
from AP-42, and enter in Table 7.1.
5.
Aircraft
The activity from which aircraft emissions are com-
puted is landing and takeoff cycles (LTO). To determine
baseline emissions from aircraft, use county LTO data by
aircraft type; consult airports individually or county air
transportation plans or studies, or FAA data. If these
data are not available, determine state air traffic activity
from FAA statistics and disaggregate to the county level
based on county share of passengers and freight. Mili-
tary activity should be included. Enter in column 1,
Table 3. 5. Compute base year emissions by multiplying
base year LTO cycles for each aircraft type by the emis-
sion factors from AP-42, and enter in Table 7.1.
(4) Electric Generation
Interview individual power companies to determine base
year fuel use for boilers and internal combustion within the
94
-------
county, sulfur and ash content of fuels burne.d, and pollution
control efficiencies. Enter the data obtained in columns 1-5,
Table 4. 1.
Convert the future fuel use data to emissions by multi-
plying by:
The emission factors derived from stack test data
obtained from power companies, if available. Other-
wise use the emission factor from AP-42 or the
NEDS emission factor file. Emissions from elec-
tricity generation depend on the type and size of the
boiler. If most of the boilers are the same type and
size, the appropriate emission factor can be deter-
mined easily. If this is not the case, fuel consump-
tion for each source should be multiplied by the
emission factor for that source; the emissions should
be aggregated to totals for each fuel.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable.
For point sources, the equivalent control efficiency
required by future emission regulations, including
NSPS. ' . .. .
Enter emissions in Table 7.1.
(5)
Incineration
Fill in Table 5. 1 with base year incineration levels. The
best sources of point source data are the agencies and organiza-
tions responsible for these sources. In addition, consult solid
waste studies and land-use plans. Convert this baseline activity
to emissions by multiplying by the emission factors from AP-42
and enter in Table 7. 1.
95
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(6) Miscellaneous Area Sources
1. Evaporation
(1) Gasoline
Determine the total gasoline retail sales in
the county, either through interviews with dealers
or from the county or state tax agency. Enter the
results in column 1, Table 6.1. Convert to base
year emissions by multiplying by the emission fac-
tors from AP-42; enter in Table 7. I, on the line
"gas handling evaporation loss" in the transporta-
tion (area) emissions category.
(2)
Solvents
Determine the amount of solvents used from
county sales totals, and determine retail sales
of surface coating materials to the public and
commercial/institutional consumers. If the
amounts are given in gallons, convert to weight by
using the actual density, or if that cannot be deter-
mined, use an average density of 6. 7 lb/gallon.
Enter the result in.column 1, Table 6.1. Convert
to base year emissions by multiplying from the
emission factors from AP-42. Enter emissions
in Table 7. 1; the emissions from solvent use should
be entered in the solvent evaporation category under
miscellaneous (area) sources. If emissions were
computed for the three major types of evaporative
sources (industrial area, surface coating and dry
cleaning), these totals should be entered individ-
ually; otherwise enter the total.
2.
Other Miscellaneous Sources
Calculation on baseline and projected emissions
for these miscellaneous sources is not included specifi-
cally in Chapters III and IV because procedures for
-------
estimating emissions from these sources which were not
regarded as significant in the past are in the process of
being modified and improved. The miscellaneous area ;
source categories given in Tables 7. 1 and 7. 2 have been,
expanded, from the categories given in the NEDS NER
format, and reflect the increasing importance associated
with these sources. Space for recording the calculations
of miscellaneous emissions is* provided in Table 6. 2.
97
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-------
IV. FORECAST PROCEDURES
This chapter of the manual presents instructions for developing
forecasts of air pollutant emissions. The forecasts are based on
point and area source emission inventories as updated and expanded
by the procedures given in Chapter III. The aggregated results pre-
sented in standard National Emission Report format are to be recorded
in Table 7.2. The projection procedures have been divided into three
levels analogous to those used in developing the baseline emissions
data. The level chosen will depend on:
The availability of resources
The degree of accuracy required
The amount of resources expended in upgrading the base-
line inventory.
Chapters I and II of the manual should be read before beginning the
forecast procedures. A general sequence of steps to complete both
the baseline and projection chapters, including the preparation and
documentation phases, is given in Chapter I, under Project Organiza-
tion and Planning.
" The manual is intended to provide 'guidance and direction for
projecting future emissions. The specific procedures and data sources
given are not the only valid methods and sources which may be used;
they are presented in order to illustrate both the type of data which
must be identified, and the general manner of forecasting future ac-
tivity, and to identify the elements which.must.be considered in pro-
jecting a complete and accurate future emission inventory. The manual
methodology is deliberately general so as to have the greatest possible
applicability to any geographic area in the country. But, it must be
recognized that there is a wide disparity among counties with respect
to number, type and location of emission sources and their expected,
growth patterns. As a result, some of the estimating techniques
discussed herein may not be directly applicable to every county.
The manual has been designed to provide flexibility for local-
initiative and data input. This is a valuable feature because the
99
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personnel at the county level responsible for completion of the manual
will in many cases have most immediate access to some of the best
data for making growth projections.
In particular the user is encouraged to
Improve on the methodologies given if he is familiar with
more accurate or appropriate emission projection methods
Use any additional data which he feels is more accurate or
timely than that obtained from referenced sources
Substitute local emission factors for those published by
EPA if they are felt to be more accurate
Communicate often with knowledgeable personnel in the
appropriate state or local agencies who may be able to
provide assistance or expertise
Use computerized data processing systems if they are
available and resources permit.
In some cases, alternate projection methods are specified.
Whenever the methods producing more accurate results are not iden-
tified, the user should assume they are roughly equivalent. Whenever
a number of alternate data sources are cited and the most preferable
ones are not identified, the user must decide which are more appli-
cable based on the type and detail of the data contained in each and the
timeliness of that data.
The tables in the Appendix provide tabulating work sheets and a
uniform documentation format for preserving the data developed. If
the user prefers to document the data and projection methods in
another way and does not require the work sheets for assistance,
these tables may be disregarded.
Forecasting future emission levels involves not only projecting
changes in activity levels, but also includes the effect of emission con-
trol regulations to be implemented in the future. Such control regula-
tions are likely to be specified in one of the following forms:
Maximum allowable pollutant concentration
Maximum allowable weight of pollutant per unit fuel or
throughput
100
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Minimum removal efficiency (or maximum percent of un- _.*
controlled emissions)
Maximum allowable sulfur or ash content of fuel.
Future emissions from each point source will be projected in the
following way:
Determine base year activity (fuel use, tons of waste
burned or plane throughput). This is the output of Chap-
ter III.
Scale base'year activity by a dimensionless growth factor
to project future activity levels. Procedures for develop-
ing growth factors are given in this Chapter.
Compute future uncontrolled emissions by multiplying
future activity by the emission factors given by NEDS.
Reduce future emissions by required future controls to
project net emissions. To do this it is necessary to
express all control regulations (whether in terms of con-
centration, weight of pollutant per unit fuel, feed or
throughput, sulfur/ash content, or removal efficiency) in
terms equivalent to removal efficiency based on externally
uncontrolled emissions. In other words, the effect of any
future control standard must be translated to the equiva-
lent removal efficiency which would produce the same
reduction in externally uncontrolled emissions.
This can be expressed in equation form as:
(future emissions) = (base year activity) x.(growth factor)
x (emission factor) x (1 - equivalent control efficiency).
The recommended source documents for emission factors are
AP-42 and the NEDS emission factor file. For area sources AP-42
must be used since the NEDS file contains no area source factors.
For point sources either can be used, but the NEDS file is preferable
because it is used by the NEDS emission inventory system.
Apportioning degree of emission control to activity changes is
affected further by four more considerations:
Early compliance with new source performance standards
Variance from emission regulations
101
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Replacement of operating equipment due to obsolescence
Increase in plant output with no change in plant output'
capacity (utilization of idle capacity).
When projecting emissions for one plant with a moderate number of
sources, it is possible that all of the above factors might be encoun-
tered in attempting to scale baseline activity by the appropriate growth
factor. The situation becomes more complex when all the plants in a
geographic region are being considered. Ideally, the most accurate
approach to the projections would be to include in the baseline data the
extent of control for each point source in the baseline year. It may be
possible to do this for Level 3 projections which address each point
source individually; for Level 1 and Level 2 projections, however, the
effect of all these factors must be estimated in an aggregate manner.
The methodology given previously should be used in Level 3 for point
source specific projections; if aggregate estimation methods must be
used, the best source of equivalent emission control data and the plant
information listed above would be the state or local air quality agency.
A more thorough discussion of the implications of these consid-
erations, and a recommended method for including them in the projec-
tions, is given in Chapter I, page 17.
The classification scheme recommended for categorizing indus-
trial process emissions is the SCC code because most emission con-
trol regulations and emission factors are specified on that basis.
While the NEDS emission inventory is also classified in that way,
other local emission inventories may be based on an industrial classi-
fication such as SIC codes. In that case a mapping or correlation
between the classification systems must be developed.
One growth factor which will be used many times in projecting
emission levels is the increase in county population. Determination
of this parameter can be done in a number of ways:
In many cases individual counties develop their own popu-
lation projections, based usually on housing construction
data (building permits, etc. ). These projections are prob-
ably most valid for the near-term. County population pro-
jections may also be based on employment projections ob-
tained from commercial and industrial organizations.
102
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Further information on projecting population growth factors
for small geographical areas is contained in Volume 4 of
the AQMA Guideline series published by EPA (Land Use -
and Transportation Considerations, August 1974).
If the above data are not available,, there may be similar
projections for the entire state and the growth portion for
the county could be based on historical trends. The use of
trend analysis involves introducing potential errors. If a
county has historically grown slowly but is on the edge of
a rapidly expanding urban area, its future growth may be
much greater than historical trends would indicate. Con-
versely, if a county has experienced recent rapid growth,
then growth may tend to taper off in the future, particularly
if land-use plans or sewer moratoriums constrain growth.
Local information is required to refine the results of
simple trend analysis to account.for these factors.
As a last resort, use OBERS* projections for the AQCR
or SMSA to estimate population growth for the county.
A combination of the above methods could be used to generate a com-
posite or average population growth factor.
Two other growth factors should be computed; they should be
used primarily for reference and comparison when other growth fac-
tors are derived which are process specific. These are aggregate
growth factors for the AQCR or SMSA for the manufacturing and
commercial/institutional sectors, and are computed from the OBERS
projections for the AQCR or SMSA. The unit of economic activity
used in the OBERS projections is earnings (in constant 1967 dollars).
Earnings are the sum of wages and salaries, other labor income, and
proprietors' income. Using constant dollars eliminates inflation ef-
fects and enables only real growth to be estimated. Industrial eco-
nomic data as expressed in other sources is sometimes given in dif-
ferent terms, such as value added or total gross output. Using any
of these units to produce dimensionless growth factors is valid as long
as their use is consistent (i. e., the same units for base year and pro-
jection year). The projection methodology is based on the fundamental
assumption that a change in pollution producing activity is proportional
to a change in purely economic indicators.
Projections of population, employment and earnings developed
by the U.S. Departments of Commerce and Agriculture. For
further information see page 35.
103
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The growth factor for the manufacturing sector is derived from
earnings projections for the OBERS major industrial category "manu-
facturing" (there are nine major industrial categories given in OBEKS).
The growth factor for a projection year is defined as the ratio of manu-
facturing sector earnings for the projection year, to manufacturing
sector earnings for the base year. The growth factor for the commercial/
institutional sector is derived from earnings projections for the major
OBERS categories:
Contract construction
Wholesale and retail trade
Finance, insurance and real estate
Services
Civilian government, a subcategory of the major
category, government.
Before the pollutant forecasts are initiated, the most accurate
population projection po-ssible and the growth factors for the manu-
facturing and commercial/institutional sectors should be prepared
and plotted as shown schematically in Exhibit 3 in the Appendix.
104
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LEVEL 1 EMISSION PROJECTIONS
In addition to the population data discussed previously, the data
required to complete the projections at this level include:
OBERS earnings projections for the AQCR in which the
county is located, or county projections if available
State implementation plans and pertinent point and area
source control regulations including compliance schedules,
new source performance standards, and vehicle emissions
standards
Projections of growth in electric power generating facili-
ties in the county (if any).
Projecting future point source emissions involves not only projecting
changes in activity levels, but also includes the effect of emission
control regulations to be implemented in the future. The procedure
recommended for including future controls in the projections, given
in Chapter I starting on page 17, involves calculating the equivalent
removal efficiencies based on externally uncontrolled emissions. In
addition, point source emission projections should include four other
considerations:
Early compliance with new source performance standards
Variance from emission regulations
Replacement of operating equipment due to obsolescence
Increase in plant output with no change in plant output
capacity.
(1) Industrial Process Emissions
The most accurate method for projecting industrial pro-
cess emissions involves forecasting on an individual point source
basis rather than on an aggregated source basis. This is be-
cause source specific data on base year emission control and
operating capacity is needed to determine the equivalent source
activity level and projected net emissions in the future as affected
105
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by future control requirements. Consequently, Level 3 projec-
tion is recommended for industrial process emissions because
that method does consider individual sources. Substantially less
confidence should be placed in Level 1 and Level 2 projections,
in which sources are treated at an aggregated level.
Two alternate methods are given below for Level 1 projec-
tions of process emissions. The first method does not consider
industrial processes within a NER category, while the second
method does. Thus the second method is the more accurate of
the two and is recommended if resources permit.
1.
Method 1
For each projection year, determine growth
factor for each of the 13 NER process cate-
gories from OBERS industrial growth projec-
tions for the AQCR or from better local data,
if available. For each process, the growth
factor is given by: (earnings in projection year)/
(earnings in baseline year). The growth fac-
tors, as derived from OBERS projections, are
intended to reflect the change in industrial out-
put for each process from the base year to the
projection years. It may.be necessary to in-
terpolate between OBERS projection years to
calculate earnings for the desired projection
year. Enter the growth factor in column 12 of
Table 1.1. (One Table 1.1 must be completed
for each projection year.)
From applicable local control regulations or
the Control Factor/Mobile Source document,
estimate the equivalent control efficiency re-
quired for each pollutant, for each process
category, for each projection year. To do
this a weighted control factor reflecting both
the control required for each process within a
process category, and the process throughput
mix in the county must be computed. Enter in
columns 13-17 of Table 1.1.
106
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Multiply the baseline emissions (columns 2-13,
Table 1.3) by the growth factor (column 12,
Table 1..1) and control factors (columns 13-17,
Table 1.1) to produce future emissions and
enter the results in Table 7.2.
2.
Method 2
In completing these calculations, consider only those
categories of the.13 NER process categories which have
substantial emissions in the county.
For each process category, list by 8-digit SCC
(EPA source classification code) and process
.name all processes for which substantial emis-
sions are produced in the county.
Determine a growth factor for each process
category from OBERS industrial growth pro-
jections for the AQCR. For each process
category, the growth factor is given by: (earn-
ings in projection year)/(earnings in baseline
year). Enter in column 3 of Table 1.4. (One
Table 1.4 must be completed for each projec-
tion year.)
From data on applicable local control regula-
tions or the Control Factor/Mobile Source
document, estimate equivalent control effi-
ciency required for each pollutant relative to
the baseline year, for each SCC process, for
each projection year. To do this a weighted
control'factor reflecting both the: control re-
quired for each process within a process cate-
gory, and the future process throughput mix
107
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in the county must be computed.
columns 5-9, Table 1.4.
Enter in
Scale the baseline emissions (columns 9-13,
Table 1.3) by the process category growth
factor and SCC control factors to produce fu-
ture emissions. Add emissions for all pro-
cesses in each NER category to give NER
process category totals, and enter the results
in Table 7.2.
(2)
Fuel Combustion
Fuel combustion emissions are projected by first deter-
mining the future fuel energy demand (in Btus) and then appor-
tioning that demand to the fuels which are likely to be used.
1. Convert the county baseline fuel use in Table 2. 1 to
Btu equivalents and enter in Table 2.6. To do this it is
necessary to add up the Btus for both point and area source
combustion of each fuel. Since the Btu content of fuels
shows substantial variation regionally, use the Btu equiva-
lent which is appropriate for the region in question. Then
compute the projected Btu demand as follows:
The weighted control factor CFW. for process category (j) and
pollutant (p) is given by: ^"
CFW. =
3P
Y O
4^ i
ECF
PI
where:
i = specific SCC process within process category (j)
O. = future throughput for process (i)
ECF. = equivalent control efficiency required in the
projection year for pollutant (p) and process (i)
108
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Residential. Scale the county baseline Btu
demand (Table 2. 6) by the population growth
factor.
Industrial. Scale the county baseline Btu de-
mand (Table 2.6) by the growth factor for the
manufacturing sector computed from OBERS
data, as given in the beginning of. this Chapter.
Commercial/Institutional. Scale the county
baseline Btu demand (Table 2.6) by the growth
factor for the commercial/institutional sector
computed from OBERS data, as given in the
beginning of this Chapter.
The expected effect of energy conservation practices
should be considered when computing these growth factors.
Enter the growth factors and projected Btu demand in
Table 2. 7.
2. Predict the future fuel mix for the county based on
local knowledge and data concerning historical fuel use
trends and future fuel availability. In the absence of any
such data, use the same fuel mix as in the baseline year.
One method for estimating the future fuel mix is to dis-
tribute the projected Btu demand to various fuels directly
(such as a percentage for natural gas, a percentage for
distillate oil, etc. ). There is another method which,
based on the available projection data, may be easier to
implement. The latter method involves:
First distributing only the net increase in the
Btu demand to the fuels expected to be used to
meet that demand
Determining the net effect of conversion of
existing combustion equipment to burn other
fuels
Using this data to make the fuel distribution
of the projected Btu demand.
109
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The use of electricity, while producing no emissions at
the point of consumption, must be considered when dis-
tributing the projected Btu demand to various fuels. Only
the electricity used as a substitute for fuel combustion
should be considered, however. This type of consumption
includes primarily space heating and cooling, and does not
include the use of electric appliances or industrial ma-
chinery. Determine the amount of'electricity, projected
for space heat in the state (or in the county, if those data
are available) by each customer category (residential,
industrial, commercial/institutional). The best source
of this data is the Regional Electric Reliability Council.
Enter future county fuel use in Table 2. 8; one Table 2. 8
must be completed for each projection year.
3. Enter the projected sulfur and ash content in Table 2.2,
based on the allowable maximum or baseline sulfur and ash
content, whichever is smaller.
4. Convert the future fuel use data to emissions by
multiplying by:
The emission factor from AP-42 or the NEDS
emission factor file. Emissions from fuel
combustion depend on the type and size of the
boiler. If most of the boilers are expected to
be the same type and size, the appropriate
emission factor can be determined easily. If
this is not the case, estimate future weighted
emission factors reflecting the mix of boiler
type and size, based on data from distributors,
servicemen or state registrations.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable.
For point sources, the equivalent control effi-
ciency required by future emission regulations,
including NSPS.
5.
Enter future emissions in Table 7. 2.
110
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(3) Transportation
1. Highway Vehicles
Procedures used to estimate emissions from highway
Vehicles have in the past considered three major vehicle
classifications:
Light-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty diesel.
These correspond identically to the vehicle categories
given in the NER. Emission factors for these categories
are given in AP-42. Highway vehicle categories have re-
cently been expanded by EPA to include the following:
Light-duty vehicles (LDV)
Light-duty trucks (LOT)
Heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (HDV)
Heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDD)
Motorcycles (MC).
Emission factors for these categories are given in the
Control Factor/Mobile Source document referenced in
Chapter II. The five category classification is recom-
mended for projecting emissions because of the increased
accuracy resulting from the more detailed vehicle classi-
fication. To be entered in Table 7. 2, emissions from the
new five vehicle classification should be aggregated into
the three vehicle NER classification as follows:
NER Category
Light-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty diesel
Vehicle Type
Light-duty vehicles
Light-duty trucks
Motorcycles
Heavy-duty gasoline vehicles
Heavy-duty diesel vehicles
111
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If baseline VMT for highway vehicles was computed
only for the three vehicle category classification, that
data must first be disaggregated to the five category clas-
sification. Consult state or county transportation or high-
way data.
To project emissions:
(1_) Assume growth factors for all five classes of
vehicles to be given by the county population growth
factor, and enter in Table 3.4. One Table 3.4 must
be completed for each projection year.
(2) The age distribution of county LDV vehicles
and the annual mileage driven by the vehicles of each
age group (in years) must be considered to produce
weighted emission factors for HC (exh), CO and NOX
for LDV. The equation for the weighted emission
factor enp for calendar year (n) and pollutant (p) is:
np
(c. x d. x f. x t.)
E f- *
where :
i = age of vehicle
c.
i
d.
i
f.
i
t.
i
= the federal test emission factor for the
model year corresponding to vehicle age
(i) at low mileage
= the controlled pollutant (p) emission
deterioration factor for model year (i)
at calendar year n
= fraction of total vehicles in use of age (i)
= average annual miles driven by vehicle
of age (i)
112
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Note that this equation is equivalent to the one. given
in the Control Factor/Mobile Source document but
is expressed in a slightly different form because in
the above equation:
The speed adjustment is assumed inde-
pendent of vehicle age
The expanded form of, the weighted annual
travel term (m. in AP-42) is given.,
A detailed discussion of this method, as well as test
emission factors and nationwide data which can be
used for f. and t. (if no local data are available) can
be found in AP-42 and the Control Factor/Mobile
Source document. Calculation of weighted emission
factors using the above equation may be facilitated
by using Table 3.2 as a step by step work sheet.
Instructions for completing Table 3. 2 are given
starting on page 84. Enter these weighted emis-
sion factors for HC (evap), SO and particulates
-Jx
from the same documents in Table 3.4.
(3) If detailed speed correction factors were com-
puted in the emission inventory update in Chapter III,
use the same factors for emission'projections.
Otherwise, to simplify this Level 1 projection, es-
timate the speed correction factor for LDV accord-
ing to the general type of roads prevalent in the
county. If the county is predominantly urban, use
correction factors of:
0.8 for HC (exh) and CO
1. 1 for NO .
If the county is predominantly rural, use correction
factors of:
0.6 for HC (exh) and CO
1.3 for NOx-
Enter the speed correction factors in Table 3.4.
113
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(4) If emissions in the county from other gasoline
vehicles (LDT, HOT or MC) are sufficient to justify
including the effects of speed correction, vehicle age
and model year distribution, proceed in the manner
used for LDV and enter the data in Table 3. 4.
(5_) For projected HC (exh), CO and NO emis-
sions for LDV, scale the.baseline VMT (Table 3.4)
by the growth factor (g), weighted emission factors (e)
and speed correction factors (s) (e. g., VMT g e s).
For projected HC (evap), SO and particulate emis-
,x
sions, for LDV, and for all projected emissions for
the other vehicle categories, scale the baseline VAIT
for all vehicles by the growth factors and emission
factors. Add HC (exh) and HC (evap) emissions to
produce total HC emissions, aggregate projected
emissions into the NER vehicle format, and enter
in Table 7. 2.
2. Off-Highway Vehicles
(1_) Compute a growth factor reflecting the expected
overall change in agricultural activity and apply it to
all off-highway gasoline vehicles. Enter on lines 1-2,
Table 3.1. Compute a growth factor reflecting the
expected overall change in construction activity and
apply it to all off-high way diesel vehicles. Enter on
lines 3-5, Table 3.1.
(2) Determine growth factors for any other major
off-highway sources and enter in Table 3.1.
(3) Multiply the baseline fuel use by these growth
factors and enter in the appropriate columns of
Table 3.1. Scale projected fuel use by the emission
factors from AP-42, add total projected emissions
for off-highway gasoline and diesel use, and enter in
Table 7.2.
114
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3. Rail
Determine growth factors for diesel locomotive use
based on-projections for increases in rail traffic; consult
transportation studies or contact the railroads directly.
Enter the growth factors on line 6, Table 3.1. Scale base-
line fuel use by the growth factors and emission factors
from AP-42, and enter projected emissions in Table 7.2.
4. Vessels
Compute emissions resulting from vessel traffic
as follows:-
(1) Commercial Vessels Consuming Coal and Oil
Determine the appropriate growth factor for
vessel movement based on:
Interviews with shippers and port author-
ity officials to determine the estimated
increase in vessel traffic within county
boundaries
Consulting county or state transportation
studies
Projections of national vessel traffic
from the U. S. Department of Transpor-
tation which can be disaggregated to the
county level by base-year tonnage ratios
(county shipping tonnage/national ship-
ping tonnage).
Enter on lines 7-9 of Table 3.1. Scale baseline fuel
use by these growth factors and emission factors,
and enter projected emissions in Table 7. 2.
(2) Recreational Vessels Consuming Gasoline
Enter population growth factors on line 10,
Table 3.1. Scale baseline fuel use by these growth
factors and the emission factors from AP-42, and
enter projected emissions in Table 7.2.
115
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5. Aircraft
First consult the following sources of data:
Transportation studies and individual airport
studies
State air traffic projection data from FAA
(obtain projected county share by using present
share)
National air traffic forecasts from FAA, if
none of the above sources have the required
data.
For each projection year, determine two growth
factors reflecting the expected change in overall air traf-
fic for:
Civil and commercial aircraft
Military aircraft .
Scale baseline LTO cycles for civil and commercial air-
craft by the first growth factor, and military aircraft by
the second growth factor. This assumes the aircraft mix
in the two general categories will remain static. Enter
the growth factors in columns 2, 4 and 6, Table 3.5;
scale the baseline LTO cycles for aircraft type by the
appropriate growth factor for each projection year, and
enter the results in columns 3, 5 and 7, Table 3. 5. Pro-
ject emissions by multiplying projected activity (LTO
cycles) by the appropriate emission factors from AP-42.
Aggregate emissions for these aircraft types into NER
categories (commercial, civil and military) and enter in
Table 7.2.
(4) Electric Generation
The forecasts made in this section will be based on avail-
able data on new power plant sites and anticipated fuel type.
Such data is available for the near-term (less than 10 years) but
is more speculative for the long-term. Because emissions will
116
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increase abruptly when a new fossil fuel plant comes on line, it is
essential to determine as precisely as possible the year in which
that will occur, even though it may not be one of the three fore-
cast years being considered. Indicate in a footnote to the appro-
priate forecast table the projected year of start-up for the facility.
The procedures to be used in preparing the electric generation
emissions forecast are as follows:
1. Determine the amount of electricity to be generated
in the county jn the projection years, and enter in column 1,
Table 4.2. To obtain this data consult:
County or state utility commission
Regional Electric Reliability Council
FPC Form 67
Steam Electric Plant Factors (National Coal
Association).
2. Determine which fuels will be burned (both internal
and external combustion) to produce that electricity, and
enter percent of the electricity generated by each fuel in
column 3.
3. Determine the conversion factor (kWh/unit fuel) for
the geographic region of interest from above sources, and
enter in column 4. (Future conversion factors will differ
from basic year.)
4. Compute the future use of each fuel type by multi-
plying the total electric power to be generated (column 1)
by the use percentage and conversion factor (columns 2
and 3), and enter in column 5.
5. Enter.the sulfur and ash content for those fuels from
Table 2. 3 in columns 6 and 7.
117
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6. Convert the future fuel use data to emission by
multiplying by:
The emission factor from AP-42 or the NEDS
emission factor file. Emissions from elec-
tricity generation depend on the type and size
of the boiler. If most of the boilers are
expected to be the same type and size, the
appropriate emission factor can be determined
easily. If this is not the case, estimate future
weighted emission factors reflecting the mix of
boiler type and size, based on data from the
references given previously.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable.
For point sources, the equivalent control effi-
ciency required by future emission regulations,
including NSPS.
Enter future county emissions in Table 7.2.
(5)
Incineration
1. Use the manufacturing sector growth factor from the
OBERS projections as the industrial growth factor. Use
the commercial/institutional sector growth factor from the
OBERS projections for growth in commercial/institutional
solid waste. Use the population growth factor for growth
in residential and government solid waste. Enter these
factors in Table 5.2.
2. Multiply baseline solid waste by these growth fac-
tors, and apportion to disposal methods given in Table 5.2
based on any available data concerning future disposal
methods.
3. To compute future emissions, multiply projected
solid waste for each disposal method by emission factors
for the projection years, and for point sources by the
equivalent control efficiency required in the projection
118
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year by emission standards. When computing emission
factors-, include all local knowledge and data about pro-
posed regulations concerning incineration and open burn-
ing. Enter projected emissions in Table 7.2.
(6) Miscellaneous Area Sources
1. Evaporation
(1_) Gasoline
Determine future gasoline sales in the county
from one or more of the following sources:
County or state energy office
County or state tax agency
Transportation studies
Gasoline dealers association surveys.
In addition, future county gasoline sales may have
been computed in Section 3 of this Chapter. If none
of the above sources contains the necessary infor-
mation, use total projected gasoline vehicle miles
from Section 4 and divide by 12.2 miles per gallon
to produce gasoline use. Enter projected gasoline
sales in columns 2-4, Table 6.1. Multiply by the
emission factor for gasoline evaporation and enter
projected emissions in Table 7.2 under the trans-
portation (area) source category.
(2_) Solvents
Scale baseline solvent use by the population
growth factor for the projection years, and enter in
columns 2-4, Table 6.1. Multiply by the emission
factor for solvent use and enter projected emissions
in Table 7.2, in the solvent evaporation category
under miscellaneous (area) sources.
119
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2. OthejMVT s~ellaneous Sources
Pro-octmji emissions for these miscellaneous sources
is not in lud;d specifically in Chapter IV because proce-
dures for estimating emissions from these sources which
were not regarded as significant in the past are in the pro-
cess of being modified and improved. The miscellaneous
area source categories given in the attached tables have
been expanded from the categories given in the NEDS NER
format, and relect the increasing importance associated
with these sources. Space for recording the calculations
of miscellaneous emiss ons is provided in Table 6.2.
120
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LEVEL-2 EMISSION PROJECTIONS , . . .
In addition to the da;a required for the Level 1 projections, more
specific county data on proje ;ted growth pa te ~: .s is needed at this Ivvel,
including land-use plans, .air quality con rol pl..,ns, transportation plans
and so on. Projecting future point source emissions involves not on;.y.
projecting changes in activity :evels, but also includes the effect of
emission control regulations to be implemented in the future. The- pro-
cedure recommended for including future controls in the projections,
given in Chapter I starting on page 17, involves calculating the equiva
lent removal efficiency based on externally uncontrolled emissions. In
addition, point source emissions projections should include four other
considerations:
Early compliance to new source performance standards
Variance from emission regulations
Replacement of operating equipment due to obsolescence
Increase in plant output with no change in plant outpu*-
capacity.
(1) Industrial Process - . .
The most accurate method for projecting industrial
process emissions involves forecasting on an individual point
source basis rather than on an aggregated source basis. This
is because source specific data on base year emission control
and operating capacity is needed to determine the equivalent
source activity, level and projected net emissions in the future
as affected by future control requirements Consequent'.},
Level 3 projection is recommended for industrial process
emissions because that method does consider individual sources.
Substantially less confidence should be placed in Level 1 and
Level 2 projections, in which sources are treated at an aggre-
gated level.
121
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For each projection year, determine a growth factor
for each SCC process for which substantial emissions
are produced in the county. Review applicable state
or county projection data, as found in:
Land-use plans
Industrial growth studies
Zoning data.
These data may be of a qualitative nature but should
be translated into numeric terms for use in the pro-
jections. Enter in column 3, Table 1.4. One
Table 1. 4 must be completed for each projection
year.
From applicable local control regulations or the
Control Factor Mobile Source document, estimate
equivalent control efficiency required for each pol-
lutant, relative to the baseline year, for each SCC
process, for each projection year. To do this a
weighted control factor reflecting both the control
required for each process within a process category
and the future process throughput mix in the county
must be computed.* Enter in columns 5-9, Table 1.4
* The.Weighted control factor CFW. for process category (j) and
pollutant (p) is given by:
J
CFW. =
Y O ECF
Y i P1
where:
O.
= specific SCC process within process category (j)
= future throughput for process (i)
ECF. = equivalent control efficiency required in the
projection year for pollutant (p) and process (i)
122
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Scale the baseline emissions (columns 9-13,
Table 1. 3) by the process category growth factor
and SCC control factors to produce future emissions.
Add emissions for all processes in each NER cate-
gory to give NER process category totals, and enter
the results in Table 7. 2.
(2) Fuel Combustion
Fuel combustion emissions are projected by first deter-
mining the future fuel energy demand (in Btus) and then appor-
tioning that demand to the fuels which are likely to be used.
1. Convert the county baseline fuel use to Btu equiva-
lents and enter in Table 2. 6. To do this it is necessary
to add up the Btus for both point and area source combus-
tion of each fuel. Since the Btu content of fuels shows
substantial variation regionally, use the Btu equivalent
which is appropriate for the region in question. Then
compute the projected Btu demand as follows:
Residential. Determine the projected increase
in dwelling units in the county, based on zoning
plans, construction or real estate development
plans, land-use plans and housing studies. Use
this data to produce growth factors for the pro-
jection years.
Industrial. Consult the same sources as above,
and also industrial growth plans or fuel studies
to determine an appropriate industrial growth
factor.
Commercial/Institutional. Use the same
sources as above to calculate commercial/
. institutional growth factor.
The expected effect of energy conservation practices
should be considered when computing these growth factors.
Enter the growth factors in Table 2. 7. Project future
Btu demand using these growth factors and the base year
Btu demand (in Table 2. 6), and enter in Table 2.7.
123
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2. Predict the future fuel mix for the county based on
local knowledge and data concerning historical fuel use
trends and future fuel availability. In the absence of any
such data, use the same fuel mix as in the baseline year.
One method for estimating the future fuel mix is to dis-
tribute the projected Btu demand to various fuels directly
(such as a percentage for natural gas, a percentage for
distillate oil, etc. ). There is another method which,
based on the available projection data, may be easier to
implement. The latter method involves:
First distributing only the net increase in the
Btu demand to the fuels expected to be used to
meet that demand
Determining the net effect of conversion of
existing combustion equipment to burn other
fuels
Using this data to make the fuel distribution
of the projected Btu demand.
The use of electricity, while producing no emissions at
the point of consumption, must be considered when dis-
tributing the projected Btu demand to various fuels. Only
the electricity used as a substitute for fuel combustion
should be considered, however. This type of consumption
includes primarily space heating and cooling, and does not
include the use of electric appliances or industrial ma-
chinery. Determine the amount of electricity projected
for space heat in the state (or in the county, if those data
are available) by each customer category (residential,
industrial, commercial/institutional). The best source
of this data is the Regional Electric Reliability Council.
Enter future county fuel use in Table 2. 8; one Table 2. 8
must be completed for each projection year.
3. Enter the projected sulfur and ash content in
Table 2.2, based on allowable maximum or baseline con-
tent, whichever is smaller.
124
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4. Convert the future fuel use data to emissions by mul-
tiplying by:
The emission factor from AP-42 or the NEDS
emission factor file. Emissions from fuel
combustion depend on the type and size of the
boiler. If most of the boilers are expected to
be the same type and size, the appropriate
emission factor can be determined easily. If
this is not the case, estimate future weighted
emission factors reflecting the mix of boiler
type and size, based on data from distributors,
servicemen or state registrations.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable.
For point sources, the equivalent control effi-
ciency required by future emission regulations
including NSPS.
5. Enter future emissions in Table 7.2.
(3) Transportation
1. Highway Vehicles
Procedures used to estimate emissions from high-
way vehicles have in the past considered three major
vehicle classifications:
Light-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty dies el.
These correspond identically to the vehicle categories given
in the NER. Emission factors for these categories are
given in AP-42. Highway vehicle categories have recently
been expanded by EPA to include the following:
Light-duty vehicles (LDV)
Light-duty trucks (LDT)
125
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Heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (HDV)
Heavy-duty dies el vehicles (HDD)
Motorcycles (MC).
Emission factors for these categories are given in the
Control Factor/Mobile Source document referenced in
Chapter II. The five category classification is recom-
mended for projecting emissions because of the increased
accuracy resulting from the more-detailed vehicle classi-
fication. To be entered in the projection NER, emissions
from the new five vehicle classification should be aggre-
gated into the three vehicle NER classification as follows:
NER Category
Light-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty diesel
Vehicle Type
Light-duty vehicles
Light-duty trucks
Motorcycles
'Heavy-duty gasoline vehicles
Heavy-duty diesel vehicles
If baseline VMT for highway vehicles' was computed
only for the three vehicle category classification, that
data must first be disaggregated to the five category
classification. Consult state or county transportation or
highway data.
To project emissions:
(1_) Determine county estimates for future VMT in
projection years for each of the five vehicle typ'es
from county transportation or highway studies. If
these data are not available, use the estimated in-
crease in state VMT by vehicle type, and apportion
the results to obtain the county share by using one
of the following approaches:
The baseline share
Vehicle registrations (county/state)
Miles of highway (county/state),
126
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or some combination of the above. Based on county
baseline VMT, compute growth factors for. the pro-
jection years and.enter the results in Table 3,4.
One Table 3. 4 must be completed for each projec-
tion year. .. , .
(2) The age distribution of county vehicles and the
annual mileage driven by the vehicles of each age
group (in years) must.be considered to produce
weighted emission factors for HC (exh), CO and NO
,x
for LDV. The equation for the weighted emission
factor e for calendar year (n) and pollutant (p) is:
np
np
(c. x d. x f. x t.)
i i 11
Y f. t.
4^ i i
where:
i = age of vehicle
c. = the federal test emission factor for the
model year corresponding to vehicle
age (i) at low mileage
d. = the controlled pollutant (p) emission
1 deterioration factor for model year (i)
at calendar year n
f. = fraction of total vehicles in use of age (i)
t. = average annual miles driven by vehicle
of age (i)
Note that this equation is equivalent to the one given
in AP-42 but is expressed in a slightly different
form because in the above equation:
The speed adjustment is assumed inde-
"pendent of vehicle age
127
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The expanded form of the weighted annual
travel term (m. in AP-42) is given.
A detailed discussion of this method, as well as test
emission factors and nationwide data which can be
used for t^ and tj (if no local data are available) can
be found in AP-42 and the Control Factor/Mobile
Source document. Calculation of weighted emission
factors using the above equation may be facilitated
by using Table 3.2 as a step-by-step work sheet.
Instructions for completing Table 3.2 are given
starting on page 84. Enter these weighted emis-
sion factors in Table 3.4. Enter emission factors
for HC (evap), SOX and particulates from the same
documents in Table 3.4.
(3) If emissions in the county from other gasoline
vehicles (LDT, HDV or MC) are sufficient to justify
including the effects of speed correction, vehicle
age and model year distribution, proceed in the man-
ner used .for light-duty vehicles and enter the data in
Table 3.4.
(4) Enter the base year county speed correction
factors into Table 3.4, or else estimate speed cor-
rection factors as given on page 113. Adjust
these as required for estimated changes in average
road speed (e. g., construction of many limited
access highways).
(5_) For projected HC (exh), CO and NOX emis-
sions for LDV, scale the baseline VMT (Table 3.4)
by the growth factor (g), weighted emission factors
(e) and speed correction factors (s) (e. g., VMT
g« e- s). For projected HC (evap), SOX and par-
ticulate emissions for LDV and for all projected
emissions for the other vehicle categories, scale
the baseline VMT for all vehicles by the growth
factors and emission factors. Add HC (exh) and
HC (evap) emissions to produce total HC emissions,
J28
-------
aggregate prejected.emissions into the NER vehicle
format, and enter in Table 7.2.
2. Off-Highway V ehicles
(1) Compute a growth factor for the change in the
number of diesel and gasoline tractors in use. Future
farming activity can be based on future acres culti-
vated and^average number of tractors per acre. Con-
sult land-use plans and local agricultural agencies,
and interview farm machinery dealers to obtain
estimates of the future demand for farm machinery.
Also consult county or state fuel use projections, if
applicable. Enter the resulting growth factors on
lines 1 and 3, Table 3.1.
(2) Compute a growth factor for non-building con-
slruction employees. Consult the construction in-
dustry or use the growth in earnings projected by
OBERS for the construction sector in the AQCR.
Enter the results on line 4, Table 3. 1.
(3) Determine growth factors for any other off-
highway sources and enter in Table 3. 1.
(4) Multiply the baseline fuel use by these growth
factors and enter in the appropriate columns of
Table 4. 1. Scale the projected fuel use by the emiS
sion factors from AP-42, and add total projected
emissions for off-highway gasoline and diesel use.
Enter projected emissions in Table 7. 2.
3.
Rail
Determine growth factors for diesel locomotive use
based on projections for increases in rail traffic; consult
transportation studies or contact the railroads directly.
129
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Enter the growth factors on line 6, Table 3. 1. Scale base-
line fuel use by the growth factors and emissions factors
from AP-42, and enter projected emissions in Table 7. 2.
4.
Vessels
Compute emissions resulting from vessel traffic as
follows:
(1) Commercial Vessels Consuming Coal and Oil
Determine the appropriate growth factor for
vessel movement based on:
Interviews with shippers and port author-
ity officials to determine estimated in-
crease in vessel traffic within county
boundaries
Consulting county or state transportation
studies
Projections of national vessel traffic
from the U. S. Department of Transpor-
tation which can be disaggregated to the
county level by base year tonnage ratios
(county shipping tonnage/nation shipping
tonnage).
Enter on lines 7-9, Table 3. 1. Scale baseline fuel
use by these growth factors and emission factors from
AP-42, and enter projected emissions in Table 7. 2.
(2_) Recreational Vessels Consuming Gasoline
Enter population growth factors on line 10,
Table 3.1. Scale baseline fuel use by these growth
factors and the emission factors from AP-42, and
enter projected emissions in Table 7. 2.
130
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5. Aircraft
First consult the following sources of data:
Transportation studies and individual airport
studies
.State air traffic projection data from FA A
(obtain projected county share by using present
share)
National air traffic forecasts from FAA, if none
of the above sources have the required data.
For each projection year, determine two growth fac-
tors reflecting the expected change in overall air traffic
for:
Civil and commercial aircraft
Military aircraft.
Scale baseline LTO cycles for civil and commercial air-
craft by the first growth factor, and military aircraft by
the second growth factor. This assumes the aircraft mix
in the two general categories will remain static. Enter
the growth factors in columns 2, 4 and 6, Table 3.5 ; scale
the baseline LTO cycles for aircraft type by the appropri-
ate growth factor for each projection year, and enter the
results in columns 3, 5 and 7, Table 3.5. Project emis-
sions by multiplying projected activity (LTO cycles) by the
emission factors from AP-42. Aggregate emissions for
these aircraft types into NER categories ('commercial,
civil and military) and enter in Table 7. 2.
(4) Electric Generation
The forecasts made in this section will be based on avail-
able data on new power plant sites and anticipated fuel type.
Such data is available for the near-term (less than 10 years) but
is more speculative for the long-term. Because emissions will
increase abruptly when a new fossil fuel plant comes on line, it is
essential to determine as precisely as possible the year in which
131
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that will occur, even though it may not be one of the three fore-
cast years being considered. Indicate in a footnote to the appro-
priate forecast table the projected year of start-up for the facil-
ity. The procedures to be used in preparing the electric genera-
tion emissions forecast are as follows:
1. Determine the amounts of fuels which will be burned
(both internal and external combustion) to produce elec-
tricity in the projection years, as well as the sulfur and
ash content, if applicable, from:
County or state utility commission data
Regional Electric Reliability Council
FPC Form 67
and enter in columns 3-14, Table 4.1.
2. Convert the future fuel data to emissions by multi-
plying by:
". The emission factor from AP-42 or the NEDS
emission factor file. Emissions from elec-
tricity generation depend on the type and size
of the boiler. If most of the boilers are ex-
pected to be the same type and size, the appro-
priate emission factor can be determined
easily. If this is not the case, estimate future
weighted emission factors reflecting the mix
of boiler type and size, based on data from the
references given previously.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable.
For point sources, the equivalent control effi-
ciency required by future emission regulations
including NSPS.
Enter future county emissions in Table 7. 2.
132
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(5)
Incineration
1. For each projection year, determine growth factors
for each source as given in Table 5.2. Consult county or
state solid waste studies and land-use plans.
2. Multiply baseline solid waste by these growth factors,
and apportion to disposal methods given in Table 5.2 based
on the same data sources.
3. To compute future emissions, multiply projected
solid waste by emission factors for the projection years.
For point sources also multiply by the equivalent control
efficiency required in the projection year to meet emission
standards. When computing emission factors include all
local knowledge and data about proposed regulations con-
cerning incineration and open burning. Enter projected
emissions in Table 7. 2.
(6) Miscellaneous Area Sources
1.
Evaporation
(1_) Gasoline
Determine future gasoline sales in the county
from one or more of the following sources:
County or state energy office
County or state tax agency
Transportation studies
Gasoline dealers association surveys.
In addition, future county gasoline sales may have
been computed in Section 3 (Transportation) of this
chapter. If none of the above sources contains the
necessary information, use total projected gasoline
133
-------
2.
vehicle miles from Section 3 and divide by 12.2 miles
per gallon to produce gasoline use. Enter projected
gasoline sales in columns 2-4, Table 6.1. Multiply
by 'he emissi n factor for gasoline evaporation and
enter projected emissions in Table 7.2, under the
transport .tion (area') source category.
(2) Solvent
Scale baseline solvent use by the population
growth factor for the projection years, and enter in
columnf* 2-4, Table 6. 1. Multiply by the emission
factor for solvent use and enter projected emissions
in Tab e 7. 2, in .he solvent evaporation category
under miscellaneous (area) sources.
Other Miscellaneous Sources
Projecting emissions for these miscellaneous sources
is no included specifically in Chapter IV because proce-
dures for estimating emi sions from these sources which
were not regarded as significant in the past are in the
p, ocess of being modified ,nd improved. The miscellane-
ous area source categories given in Table 7. 2 .have been
expanded from the calegories given in the NEDS NER for-
mat, and reflect the increasing importance associated with
those sources. Space for recording the calculations of
miscellaneous emissions is provided in Table 6. 2.
134
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3 EMISSION PROJECTIONS
The additional data required to complete the Level 3 projections
is to be obtained through interviews with industrial and commercial
organizations to determine their plans for facilities expansion. Pro-
jecting future point source emissions involves not only projecting
changes in activity levels, but also includes the effect of emission con-
trol regulations to be implemented in the future. The procedure rec-
ommended for including future controls in the projections, given in
Chapter I starting on page 17, involves calculating the equivalent re-
moval efficiency based on externally uncontrolled emissions. In addi-
tion, point source emission projections should include four other con-
siderations:
Early compliance to new source performance standards
Variance from emission regulations
Replacement of operating equipment due to obsolescence
Increase in plant output with no change in plant output
capacity (i.e., a change in utilization of existing capacity).
(1) Industrial Process Emissions
In these calculations consider only those categories of the
13 NER process categories which account for substantial emis-
sions in the county.
From the data gathered during the industrial inter-
view program, initiated for baseline data update,
determine a growth factor for each projection year
for each SCC process and enter in Table 1.4. One
Table 1. 4 must be completed for each projection year.
From data on applicable control regulations or NSPS,
and aided by the industrial interview program, deter-
mine the equivalent control efficiency required for
each pollutant, for each SCC process, for each pro-
jection year. Enter the results in Table 1.4.
From the interview program, determine expected
total throughput for each point source SCC process
135
-------
from all plants in each projection year, and enter
in column 4, Table 1. 4. For each individual point
source, compute projected emissions based on pro-
jected throughput, emission factors from AP-42,
and the future required emission control from the
Control Factor/Mobile Source document. (Detailed
instructions are given on page 17.) Aggregate
emissions for all processes in each NER category
to give NER process category totals, and enter in
Table 7. 2.
If projected throughput data cannot be determined
from interviews, emissions for each individual point
source may be projected based on net emissions and
emission control in the base year, the growth factor
for the SCC, the emission factor from AP-42, and
the future required emission control from the Control
Factor/Mobile Source document. (Detailed instruc-
tions are given on page 17.) Aggregate emissions
for all processes in each NER category to give NER
process category totals, and enter in Table 7. 2.
(2) Fuel Combustion
Fuel combustion emissions are projected by first deter-
mining the future fuel energy demand (in Btus) and then appor-
tioning that demand to the fuels which are likely to be used.
1. Convert the county baseline fuel use to Btu equiva-
lents and enter in Table 2. 6. To do this it is necessary
to add up the Btus for both point and area source com-
bustion of each fuel. Since the Btu content of fuels shows
substantial variation regionally, use the Btu equivalent
which is appropriate for the region in question. Then
compute the projected Btu demand as follows:
Residential. Determine the projected increase
in dwelling units in the county, based on zoning
plans, land-use plans and housing studies. Use
this data to produce growth factors for the pro-
jection years. Adjust the growth factors to re-
flect any change in the average number of rooms
136
-------
per dwelling unit, based on expected new con-
struction. This could be determined by the. type
of proposed dwelling unit: home, townhouse,
apartment, etc.
Industrial. Use the results of the interview pro-
gram with the major industrial fuel users in the
county conducted to obtain data for the baseline
year and with any industries .which are consid-
ered likely to be major polluters in the projec-
tion years. The latter can be identified from
county industrial growth plans, or from
interviews with the present major polluters.
Minimum data requirements are specified in
Exhibit 1 in the Appendix.
Commercial/Institutional. Obtain growth fac-
tors from this sector by conducting an inter-
view program with the major commercial fuel
users similar to the industrial interview pro-
gram above. Minimum data requirements are
specified in Exhibit 2 in the Appendix.
The expected effect of energy conservation practices
should be considered when computing these growth factors.
2. Enter the growth factors calculated in this manner
in Table 2. 7; use them to scale baseline county Btu demand
for the projection years. Enter the projected Btu demand
in- Table 2. 7. The interview programs should produce an
indication of the potential shift among fuels, which can be
used to adjust the future fuel mix, and the future sulfur
and ash content. ,
One method for estimating the future fuel mix is to dis-
tribute the projected Btu demand to various fuels directly
(such as a percentage for natural gas, a percentage for
distillate oil, etc. ). There is another method which,
based on the available projection data, may be easier to
implement. The latter method involves:
137
-------
First distributing only the net increase in the
Btu demand to the fuels expected to be used to
meet the demand
Determining the net effect of conversion of
existing combustion, equipment to burn other
fuels
"Using this data to make the fuel distribution
of the projected Btu demand.
The use of electricity, while producing no emissions at
the point of consumption, must be considered when dis-
tributing the projected Btu demand to various fuels. Only
the electricity used as a substitute for fuel combustion
should be considered, however. This type of consumption
includes primarily space heating and cooling, and does
not include the use of electric appliances or industrial
machinery. Determine the amount of electricity pro-
jected for space heat in the'State (or in the county, if
those data are available) by each customer category (resi-
dential, industrial, commercial/institutional). The best
source of this data is the Regional Electric Reliability
Council. Enter future county fuel use in Table 2.8; enter
projected sulfur/ash content in Table 2.2. One Table 2.8
must be completed for each projection year.
3. Convert the future fuel use data to emissions by
multiplying by:
The emission factor from AP-42 or the NEDS
emission factor file. Emissions from fuel com-
bustion depend on the type and size of the boiler.
If most of the boilers are expected to be the
same type and size, the appropriate emission
factor can be determined easily. If this is not
the case, fuel consumption for each source
should be multiplied by the emission factor for
that source; the emissions should be aggregated
to totals for each fuel.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable.
138
-------
Fot point sources, the equ vdent control effi-
ciency required by future emission regulations
including NSPS.
4,.
Enter future emissions in Table 72.
(3) Transportation
1.
Highway Vehicles
Procedures used to estimate emissions from highway
vehicles have in the past considered three major vehicle
classifications:
Light-duty gasoline
. Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty diesel.
These correspond identically to the vehicle categories given
in the NER. Emission factors for these categories are
given in AP-42. . Highway vehicle categories have recently
been expanded by EPA to include the following:
Light-duty vehicles (LDV)
Light-duty trucks
-------
NER Category
Light-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty gasoline
Heavy-duty diesel
Vehicle Type
Light-duty vehicles
Light-duty trucks
Motorcycles
Heavy-duty gasoline vehicles
Heavy-duty diesel vehicles
If baseline VA1T for highway vehicles was computed
only for the three vehicle category classification, that data
must first be disaggregated to the five category classifica-
tion. Consult state or county transportation or highway
data.
To project emissions:
(1_) Obtain estimates for future county VMT for
each of the five vehicle types from county transporta-
tion or highway studies. Determine this data for
each projection year. Consult Chapter 5 of APTD-
1135 for a complete discussion of this method.
(2) The age distribution of county LDV and the
annual mileage driven by the vehicles of each age
group must be considered to produce weighted
emission factors for HC (exh), CO and NO for
LDV. The equation for the weighted emission fac-
tor e for calendar year (n) and pollutant (p) is
np
Y (c. x d. x f. x t.)
4-1 i i i i
enp = YTT;
140
-------
where:
i = age of vehicle
c. = the federal test emission factor for the
model year corresponding to vehicle
age (i) at low mileage
d. = the controlled pollutant (p) emission
deterioration factor for model year (i)
.. at calendar year n
f. = fraction of total vehicles in use of age (i)
t. = average annual miles driven by. vehicle
of age (i)
Note that this equation is equivalent to the one given
in AP-42 but is expressed in a slightly different form
because in the above equation:
The speed adjustment is assumed inde-
pendent of vehicle age
The expanded form of the weighted annual
travel term (m. in AP-42) is given.
A detailed discussion of this method, as well as test
emission factors and nationwide data which can be
used for f. and t (if no local data are available) can
i i
be found in AP-42 and the Control Factor/Mobile
Source document. Calculation of weighted emission
factors using the above equation may be facilitated
by using Table 3. 2 as a step by step work sheet.
The average route speed of LDV must also be con-
sidered in the emission projections by completing
Table 3.3. Instructions for completing Table 3. 2
and Table 3. 3 are given starting on page 84.
Enter these weighted emission factors and speed
correction factors in Table 3.4. Enter emission
factors for HC (evap), SO and particulates from
the same sources in Table 3.4.
141
-------
(3) If emissions in the county from other gasoline
vehicles (LOT, HDV or MC) are sufficient to justify
including the effect of speed correction, vehicle age
and model year distribution, proceed in the manner
used for LDV and enter the data in Table 3. 4.
x
(4) Otherwise, to project HC (exh), CO and NO
e"missions for LDV, scale the baseline VMT for LDV
(Table 3.4) by the growth factors (g), weighted emis-
sion factors (e) and speed correction factors (s)
(e.g., VMT 'g 'e -s). For projected HC (evap),
and particulate emissions, for LDV, and for all pro-
jected emissions for the other vehicle categories,
scale the baseline VMT for all vehicles by the growth
factors and emission factors. Add HC (exh) and HC
(evap) emissions to produce total HC emissions.
Aggregate projected emissions into the NER vehicle
format and enter in Table 7. 2.
2. Off-Highway Vehicles
(!_) Compute a growth factor for the change in the
number of diesel and gasoline tractors in use. Future
farming activity can be based on future acres culti-
vated and average number of tractors per acre. Con-
sult land-use plans and local agricultural agencies and
interview farm machinery dealers to obtain estimates
of the future demand for farm machinery. Also con-
sult county or state fuel use projections, if applicable.
Enter the resulting growth factors on lines 1 and 3,
Table 3.1.
(2) Compute a growth factor for non-building con-
sTruction employees. Consult the construction in-
dustry or use the growth in earnings projected by
OBERS for the construction sector in the AQCR or
SIX-ISA. Enter the results on line 4, Table 3.1.
142
-------
(3) Determine growth factors for any other off-
highway sources and enter in Table 3.. 1.
(_4) Multiply the baseline fuel use by these growth
factors and enter in the appropriate columns of
Table 3. 1. Scale the, projected fuel use by the emis-
sion factors from A'P-42 and add total projected
emissions for off-highway gasoline and diesel use.
Enter projected emissions in Table 7. 2.
3.
Rail
Determine growth factors for diesel locomotive use
based on projections for increases in rail traffic; consult
transportation studies or contact the railroads directly.
Enter the growth factors on line 6, Table 3.1. Multiply.
baseline fuel use by the growth factors and emission
factors from AP-42, and enter projected emissions in
Table 7. 2
4.
Vessels
Compute emissions resulting from vessel traffic as
follows:
(!_) Commercial Vessels Consuming Coal and Oil
Determine the appropriate growth factor for
vessel movements based on:
Interviews with shippers and port authority
officials to determine estimated increase
in vessel traffic within county boundaries
Consulting county or state transportation
studies
Projections of national vessel traffic from
the U. S. Department of Transportation
143
-------
which can be disaggregated to the county
level by base year tonnage ratios (county
shipping tonnage/nation shipping tonnage).
Enter on lines 7-9, Table 3. 1. Scale baseline fuel .
use by these growth factors and emission factors from
AP-42 and enter projected emissions in Table 7. 2.
(2.) Recreational Vessels Consuming Gasoline
Enter population growth factors on line 10,
Table 3.1. Multiply baseline fuel use by these growth
factors and the appropriate emission factors from
AP-42, and enter projected emissions in Table 7. 2.
5. Aircraft
Consult the following sources to estimate growth in
air traffic:
Transportation studies or individual airport
studies
Contact all airports
State air traffic projection data from FAA
scaled to obtain county share by using the
present share.
For each projection year, determine a growth factor rep-
resenting the change in the number of LTO cycles for each
aircraft type (not overall air traffic).
Enter growth factors for each aircraft type in
Table 3.5 . For each aircraft type, scale baseline LTO
cycles by the growth factors and emission factors from
AP-42. Add to total aircraft emissions for each of the
three NER categories (commercial, civil and military),
and enter in Table 7.2.
144
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(4) Electric Generation
The forecasts made in this section will be based on avail-
able data on new power plant sites and anticipated fuel type. Such
data is available for.the near-term (less than 10 years) but is
more speculative for the long-term. Interviews with the power
utilities in the county, as recommended below, are the best
source of such data. Because emissions will increase abruptly
when a new fossil fuel plant comes on line, it is essential to de-
termine as.precisely as possible the year in which that will oc-
cur, even though it ^may not be one of the three forecast years
being considered. Indicate in a footnote to the appropriate fore-
cast Table the projected year of start-up for the facility. The
procedures to be used in preparing the electric generation emis-
sions forecast are as follows:
1. Estimate the amount^ of each fuel which will be
burned (both internal and external combustion) to produce
electricity in the projection years, and determine the sulfur
and ash content of this fuel, if applicable, by interviewing the
power companies in the county and consulting other refer-
ences such as FPC Form 67 submissions (filed with local
agencies or the FPC). Enter the results in columns 3-14,
Table 4. 1.
2. Convert the future fuel use data to emissions by multi-
plying by:
The emission factor from AP-42 or the NEDS
emission factor file. Emissions from elec-
tricity generation depend on the type and size
of the boiler. If most of the boilers are ex-
pected to be the same type and size, the ap-
propriate emission factor can be determined
easily. If this is not the case, fuel consump-
tion for each source should be multiplied by
the emission factor for that source; the emis-
sions should be aggregated to totals for each
fuel.
The sulfur or ash content, if applicable.
145
-------
For point sources, the equivalent control effi-
ciency required by future emission regulations
including NSPS.
Enter future county emissions in Table 7. 2.
(5) Incineration
1. For each projection year, determine growth factors
for each source and each disposal method given in Table 5.
The best source of this information is direct contact with
agencies and organizations responsible for the large point
sources. In addition, consult county or state solid waste
studies and land-use plans for data concerning expected
changes in solid waste levels and disposal methods, and
for residential (area source) data.
2. Multiply baseline solid waste by these growth factors,
and apportion to disposal methods given in Table 5. 2 based
on the-Same data sources.
3. To compute future emissions", --multiply projected
solid waste by emission factors for the projectiorTyears.
For point sources, also multiply by the equivalent control
efficiency required in the projection year to meet emis-
sion standards. When computing emission factors include
all local knowledge and data _about proposed regulations
concerning incineration and open burning. Enter projected
emissions in Table 7. 2.
146
-------
(6) Miscellaneous Area Sources'
1. Evaporation
(1) Gasoline
2.
Determine future gasoline sales in the county
from one or more of the following sources:
County or state energy office
County or state tax agency
Transportation studies
Gasoline dealers association surveys.
In addition, future county gasoline sales may have
been computed in Section 3 (Transportation) of this
chapter. If none of the above sources contain the
necessary information, use total projected gasoline
vehicle miles from Section 3 and divide by 12.2 miles
'per gallon to produce gasoline use. Enter projected .
gasoline sales in Table 6.1. Multiply by the emis-
sion factor for gasoline evaporation and enter pro-
jected emissions in Table 7. 2, under the transpor-
tation (area) source category.
(2)
Solvents
Scale baseline solvent use by the population
growth factor for the projection years, and enter in
Table 6. 1. Multiply by the emission factor for sol-
vent use and enter projected emissions in Table 7.2,
in the solvent evaporation category under miscellaneous
(area) sources.
Other Miscellaneous Sources
Projecting emissions for these miscellaneous sources
is not included specifically in Chapter IV because procedures
for estimating emissions from these sources which were not
147
-------
regarded as significant in the past are in the process of being
modified and improved. The miscellaneous area source cate-
gories given in Table 7. 2 have been expanded from the cate-
gories given in the NEDS NER format, and reflect the in-
creasing importance associated with these sources. Space
for recording the calculations of miscellaneous emissions
is provided in Table 6.2.
148
-------
APPENDIX
FIGURES AND TABLES*
All activity levels are per calendar year; all emission totals
are tons per calendar year..
149
-------
EXHIBIT 1
Data Requirements for
Industry Interviews
; All activity levels per calendar year
Fuel Use
«I) Type (base year and projection years)
<2) Amount (base year and projection years)
3} Point or area source (base year and projection years)
i) Sulfur/ash content (base year and projection years)
.3; Expected shifts in present fuel use, patterns
.6) Rate of replacement for obsolete equipment
7) Is fuel use proportional to plant throughput?
8) Present emission regulations and compliance with those
regulations
Industrial Processes
(1) Annual throughput for base year and projection years
for each SCC process
(2) Expected process shifts
(3) Rate of replacement for obsolete equipment
(4) Present operating capacity and any expected change
(5) Present emissions regulations and compliance with those
regulations
Incineration
(1) Methods and amounts (base year and projection years)
(2) Point or area source (base year and projection years)
(3) Is incineration proportional to plant throughput?
(4) Present emission regulations and compliance with those
regulations
150
-------
EXHIBIT 2
Data Requirements for Commercial
Institutional Interviews
Note: All activity levels per calendar year
1. Fuel Use
(1) Type (base year and projection years)
(2) Amount (base year and projection years)
(3) Point or area source (base year and projection years)
(4) Sulfur/ash content (base year and projection years)
(5) Expected shifts in present fuel use patterns
(6) Rate of replacement for obsolete equipment
(7) Present emission regulations and compliance to those
regulations
2. Incineration
(1) Methods and amounts (base year .and projection years)
(2) Point or area source (base year and projection years)
(3) Present emission regulations and compliance to those
regulations
151
-------
EXHIBIT 3
Schematic of Growth Factors
YEAR
BASE
F LUS .-
PLUS 10
PLUS 15
PROJECTED
POPULATION
PROJECTED
EARNINGS,
MANUF.
PROJECTED
EARNINGS,
COMM-INST.
3--
GROWTH
FACTOR*
BASE
YEAR
PLUS 5
PLUS 10
PLUS 15
* (PROJECTED POPULATION OR EARNINGS)/(BASE YEAR POPULATION OR EARNINGS)
152
-------
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1, REPORT NO.
EPA 450/4-74-008
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSIOt*NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
"Projecting County Emissions" Volume 7 of "Guidelines
for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis"
Second edition
5. REPORT DATE
January 1975
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
OAQPS Guideline No. 1.2-026
9, PERFORPVIING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
1O. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
Booz, Allen and Hamilton,
4733 Bethesda Avenue
Bethesda, Maryland 20014
Inc.
2AH137
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-02-1005
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
National Air Data Branch
Monitoring and Data Analysis Division, OAQPS, EPA
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Report for Task No. 4
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
This edition supercedes the report of the same number published September 1974.
16. ABSTRACT
This report defines a specific and uniform methodology to upgrade existing emission
inventories and to forecast future emissions of air pollutants within small
geographical areas (e.g., county). The techniques presented are designed to ;be
used by State and local air pollution control personnel in compiling baselin^ data
for the State plans to maintain National Ambient Air Quality Standards. The!
expected schedule for submission of these plans to EPA is June 1975.
An earlier version of this report was published in September, 1974, This
second edition provides expanded treatment of each of the-three inventory/forecast
levels and contains a new section dealing with the estimation of future emissions,
particularly those from sources which may be governed by a Federal New Source
Performance Standard.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS C. COSATI Field/Group
Emissions Forecasting Within Localized
Geographical Areas
Improving Local Emission Inventories -Air
Quality Maintenance Planning
Emissions
Inventories
Forecasting Emission Leve
Emission Projection Metho
Is
is
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release Unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
None
21. NO. OF PAGES
188
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
None
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
186
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