EPA-450/4-89-010
CONSIDERATION OF TRANSPORTED
    OZONE AND PRECURSORS
    AND THEIR USE IN EKMA
                By
          EDWIN L. MEYER, JR.
               AND
          KEITH A. BAUGUES
      OFFICE OF AIR QUALITY PLANNING AND STANDARDS
       U. S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
        RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NC 27711
              JULY 1989

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TTiis report has been reviewed by the Office Of Air Quality Planning And Standards, U. S. Environmental Protection
Agency, and has been approved for publication. Any mention of trade names or commercial products is not intended
to constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
                                         EPA-450/4-89-010
                                               11

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                                    PREFACE
     This document is one of five related to application of EKMA and the  use  of
OZIPM-4 (Ozone Isopleth Plotting with Optional Mechanisms), the computer program
used by EKMA.   Listed below are the titles  of the  five documents and a brief
description of each.

"Procedures for Applying City-specific EKMA", EPA-450/4-89-012, July 1989

         Describes . the procedures  forf using the  Empirical  Kinetic Modeling
     Approach  (EKMA).   The  major  focus  is on how to develop needed inputs for
     OZIPM-4.   In  addition  this document describes  how to determine a control
     target once OZIPM-4 has been run.

"A PC Based System for Generating EKMA Input Files", EPA-450/4-88-016, November
1988

     -  Describes  a  program that  creates EKMA input  files using a menu driven
     program.   This  sofware is  only  available  for an  IBM-PC  or  compatible
     machine.   Files built using this  system can  be uploaded  to  a mainframe
     computer.
        «
"User's Manual for OZIPM-4  (Ozone Isopleth Plotting  with Optional Mechanisms)-
Volume 1", EPA-450/4-89-009a, July 1989

     - Describes the conceptual  basis behind  OZIPM-4.  It describes the chemical
     mechanism, Carbon  Bond 4,  and each of  the  options available  in  OZIPM-4.
     Formats for each of the options are outlined so that a  user can create input
     files using any text editor.

"User's Manual for OZIPM-4  (Ozone Isopleth Plotting with Optional  Mechanisms)-
Volume 2:  Computer Code", EPA-450/4-89-009b,  July 1989

     - Describes modifications to the computer code that are necessary in  order
     to use OZIPM-4 on various machines.,'A complete listing of OZIPM-4  is also
     found in this publication.         I
                                        s
"Consideration of  Transported Ozone  and  Precursors  and  Their Use in EKMA"
EPA-450/4-89-010, July  1989

     - Recommends procedures for considering transported ozone  and   precursors
     in the design of  State Implementation Plans  to meet national ambient air
     quality standards  for  ozone.   A compeerized (PC)  system for determining
     whether an ozone exceedance is  due  tqoverwhelming  transport is described
     This document is  necessary,  only  if |n  area  is suspected of experiencing
     overwhelming transport of  ozone or  ozone precursors.

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EKMA may  be used  in  several  ways: (1)  as  a means for  helping  to focus more
resource-intensive photochemical grid model ing analyses on strategies most 1 ikely
to be successful  in demonstrating  attainment;  (2) as a procedure to assist  in
making comparisons between  VOC  and NOx controls; (3)  in non-SIP applications,
such as in helping to make national policy evaluations assessing cost/benefits
associated with various alternatives and (4) for preparation of control estimates
consistent with limitations/provisions identified in Clean Air Act Amendments.
                                      iv

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                               TABLE OF CONTENTS
                                                                           Page
PREFACE	  ..  .   ii,

LIST OF  FIGURES	  .   v11

LIST OF  TABLES	  .	viii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .	     1

1.0  INTRODUCTION	     4

     1.1  Purpose	     4
     1.2  Organization  	     4

2.0  OVERVIEW:  TWO TRANSPORT SCENARIOS   	     5

     2.1  Overwhelming Transport  	     5
     2.2  Days Without Overwhelming Transport    	   11

3.0  IDENTIFYING OVERWHELMING TRANSPORT	   12

     3.1  Data Bases	*	   12
     3.2  Use of Data   	|  '.   14
     3.3  Computing Back Trajectories   	   15

          3.3.1  Estimating Distance Traveled    	   16
          3.3.2  Estimating Direction and Variability in Pathway
                     Traveled	;   17
          3.3.3  Estimating Trajectories for Consecutive Time Periods    .   20

     3.4  Example Calculations for Back Trajectory Estimates    .....   20
     3.5  Using  a  Calculated  Back  Trajectory  to  Identify  Potentially
          Important Sources of Observed Ozone    	  .   23
     3.6  Evaluation  of   the  Methodology  to  Identify  Overwhelming
          Transport   	   25
     3.7  Multi-day Transport   	   30

4.0  CONSIDERING TRANSPORT DURING INCIDENTS WHERE LOCAL EMISSIONS ARE
     SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTORS TO OZONE	38

     4.1  Ozone   	   39

          4.1.1  Present Conditions (Base Case)   	  .   39
          4.1.2  Projected (Future) Conditions  	   39

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                         TABLE OF  CONTENTS  (CONTINUED)

                                                                           Rage

      4.2  Nonmethane Organic Compounds  	 ...   40
           4.2.1   Present NMOC   .  .  .  .  .
           4.2.2   Future Transported  NMOC
40
40
      4.3   Oxides  of  Nitrogen	    41

           4.3.1   Present  Transported  NOX   '.	                  41
           4.3.2   Future Transported NOX	.*.!!!!!    41

      4.4   Carbon  Monoxide   	    4j

5.0   REFERENCES CITED	    44

6.0   ACKNOWLEDGMENTS	    45

APPENDIX A:  USER'S MANUAL FOR THE TRAJECTORY MODEL  	  A-l

APPENDIX B:  SOURCES OF HOURLY SJJRFACE WIND DATA	B-l

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                                LIST OF FIGURES

                                                                           Page
1.   Determining Overwhelming Transport-Conceptual View	7
2.   Boundary Conditions Depicting Transport 	  13
3.   Illustrating Difference Between Wind Velocity and Wind Speed.  .  .  .  .18
4.   Multiperiod Back Trajectory, Conceptual View 	   21
5.   Multiperiod Back Trajectory With Area Most Likely Contributing
     to Observed 03 Identified  .	29
6.   Ozone Monitoring Sites Near Hartford, Connecticut 	  31
7.   Ozone Monitoring Sites in Connecticut and Massachusetts
     Used to Assess Overwhelming Transport 	  32
8.   Future Ozone Transport as a Function of Present Transport	42
                                     vii

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                                LIST OF TABLES


                                                                           Page

  I. Local Control Targets as a Function of Unexplained Incidents of
     Overwhelming Transport 	 ....       10

 II. Days, Times of Ozone > 0.12 ppm.	     33

III. Classifications Based on Review of Air Quality Data Alone	'.  . 35

 IV. Comparison of Classification Based Upon TRAJECTORY Model and
     Air Quality Data Alone 	
                                                                            36
  V.  Comparison of Observed and Predicted Times of Maximum Ozone. 	  37

 VI.  Recommended Default Values for EKMA	        43
                                   vm

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 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
      This report  recommends  procedures for considering  transported ozone (03)
 and  precursors  when  using the  Empirical  Kinetics  Modeling Approach  in the
 absence  of  regional   scale  modeling  data.    Incidents  of high  03  near   a
 metropolitan statistical area (MSA) are categorized according to whether or not
 "overwhelming  transport"  of  ozone/precursors  has  occurred.    Overwhelming
 transport happens when  high 03 is primarily attributable to  emissions in MSA's
 further upwind  than the MSA under review.   This  determination is made using
 hourly surface wind data to construct a back trajectory originating  at .the site
 and time of  an  observed 03 incident.  Ordinarily,  if the trajectory suggests
 that the air  reaching a monitor at  the time  of observed high  03 was over the
^local MSA between 8 a.m. -  noon,  local  emissions are assumed  to  be significant.
 Otherwise,  overwhelming transport  is assumed.
      If  overwhelming   transport  is  identified  and EKMA  is used*,  the  back
 trajectory should  be  examined to  identify potentially  culpable MSA's. These
 would  be  located  in  a  zone  defined  by that  portion of  the  trajectory
 corresponding with  8  a.m.  -  noon.  If  projected controls  in  the identified
 MSA(s)  are sufficient to reduce 03  to < 0.12 ppm, the incident of overwhelming
 transport may  be  ignored  in  the  attainment   demonstration  for  the  downwind
 (local) MSA.   If it cannot be demonstrated that upwind controls are sufficient
 to reduce an  incident of overwhelming transport  to  03 levels < 0.12  ppm,  the
 local  control  target   in the  downwind  MSA  is  raised.   This  is not done  by
      *Under proposed legislation  (HR3030), use of  EKMA as  a means  to
 demonstrate  attainment of the ozone NAAQS resulting from a SIP would require a
 prior determination that EKMA is likely to yield predictions having similar
 validity to  those obtained with a grid model.

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 modeling the incident with EKMA in  the local attainment demonstration.  Instead,
 the  incident  is  treated  as  an   "irreducible  exceedance."    In  attainment
 demonstrations with  EKMA,  it is necessary to show that the expected  number  of
 occasions per year on which daily maximum 03  is  > 0.12 is < 1.0.   Ordinarily,
 a 3-year period  is considered.   Hence,  if the fourth highest control  estimate
 is met, this means there would only be three occasions with daily maximum at a
 site > 0.12 ppm  over a 3-year period.  Thus,  if  the control  target needed to
 meet the NAAQS were  ordinarily the fourth highest  control  estimate,  with the
 irreducible exceedance it would become the third highest estimate.
      It is likely  that,  in  most  locations, for the  majority of occasions high
 03 will not be  judged  to be a product of overwhelming  transport.   In these cases,
 transport is  treated  by specifying boundary  conditions to  the  urban  scale
 models.   These  boundary conditions  represent pollutants  advected  into  the
 modeling  domain as a result of a mix of single- and multi-day  transport.   The
 following transported  pollutants  may be  considered by existing  models:   03,
 nonmethane  organic compounds  (NMOC), mix  of  organic species comprising  NMOC,
 oxides  of nitrogen (NOJ, portion of NOX which is nitrogen  dioxide (NQJ,  and
 carbon  monoxide (CO).
     Use of upwind  surface air quality monitors meeting certain  siting  criteria
 is recommended for  estimating present  boundary conditions for 03,  NOX,  and N02.
 In the event these monitors are unavailable for NOX/N02,  default  values  are also
recommended for  EKMA.   Since upwind measurements  of NMOC  and  its component
species are unlikely to be available, default recommendations are provided for
these  as  well.    Default  recommendations are  based  on monitoring   studies

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 conducted  upwind of several cities  in 1985 and 1986 using aircraft.  The effect
 of  CO  transported  intercity can ordinarily be ignored.
     To  completely assess  the  role of transport,  it is necessary  to  project
 future boundary conditions.   It is here where  the results of  regional  scale
 ozone  modeling  are most needed.   However,  for locations where  regional  model
 predictions  are not available,  default  recommendations for 03,  NOX/N02 and NMOC
 (NMOC  species) are provided.  These are based oh model simulations including the
 effect of  nationally  mandated controls  on volatile organic compound  (VOC)  and
 NOX  emissions,  natural background,  and the estimated impact  such controls  might
 have on 03  at the end  of a single day's travel time.  In the  absence of regional
 modeling results or compelling evidence  to the contrary,  it  is  recommended that
default  assumptions   concerning  future   boundary  conditions  be   used   for
 consistency.
     The procedure to  calculate back  trajectories has  been  developed  as  a
spreadsheet which will run  on an IBM-PC  (or compatible machine).  Guidance on
how to use this program is contained in Appendix A.

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.,  .
   1-°  INTRODnri-TriKf
       M-ch  controversy  has  arisen  in  recent  years aboj
  consider transport of o, and precursors from city to  city ,
  ™ regulatory strategies.  The fundamental concern is, ho,
  wnich are equitable as well  as effective?   Both political,
  and  scientific/economic issues  bear on the so,ution  to
 example, certain strategies  My  not  be  feasible because t
 "It* existing laws  or  with a Federal  system  of  government
 '"ega,,  require convincing scientific and/or economic just
 Political  obstacles.  This may include a demonstration that
 an  area  are ,,tol,  to iffect 020ne ^  ^ ^^ ^
relative importance of pollution.transported from upwind,  ex
locally generated emissions is an  important  part  of such  a
     1  1   n...-.._
                •   The  purposes  of  this  report  are:
                   (1)   to  provide a comprehensive  set of  recomnendati,
             transport using EKMA  ,„ the absence Qf ^.^ ^
             Provide a rationale and other ,nfomat,on supportjng ^
                 The  remainder  of this  paper is organized in the W,«
            Sect,on  2.0 presents  an overview  of  two  basic  scenarios
            transport.   These  differ in the degree to  which transport
            frst „ termed,  "overwhelming transport."  The second addres
            »n*n local  emissions,  along  with  transport,  have  a  sign,
            observed 0, concentrations.   Section 3.0  is an  in-depth disc

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 identify  overwhelming  transport  and  potentially culpable  upwind  MSA's  or
 consolidated  metropolitan  statistical areas (CMSA). Section 4.0  describes  how
 to  estimate boundary conditions.   Specification of boundary conditions  is  the
 way in which transport is considered on days when local  emissions  are important
 contributors  to observed 03.
 2.0  OVERVIEW:  TWO  TRANSPORT SCENARIOS
     2.1  Overwhelming Transport
     Overwhelming transport occurs when it  is likely that contributions of local
 emissions to  observed/predicted  03  is minor.   Putting this another way,  local
 emissions could  be completely eliminated  and  there would  be  little, if any,
 effect  on  the observed  or predicted  daily maximum Oa concentration.   It  is
 fruitless to develop a local control strategy based on  such an  incident.  Yet,
 the goal of a  SIP  is  to demonstrate that each local  control  strategy is adequate
 to  attain the NAAQS, even at locations  subject to  overwhelming transport.   The
 procedure outlined  in the  following paragraphs may  be used to  resolve this
 seeming inconsistency.
     Demonstrating attainment in or near MSA's  subject to possible overwhelming
 transport entails a four-step procedure.
     Step 1.   Assess the  likelihood that an  observed  ozone  concentration is
 influenced  bv local emissions.   This  is  done  primarily  through  the use of
 surface wind  data,  timing  of an  observed exceedance,  and orientation  of a
 monitor with respect to the  MSA under review.  The foregoing information is used
 to  construct  a backward  trajectory  from  an  Oa  monitoring site.  A band of
 uncertainty is assigned to this trajectory based on variability of  recorded wind
directions.   Figure  1 presents a conceptual  picture of  the results.   If ozone

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  air  quality data exist  upwind from the  MSA,  these data  may also be  used  to
  refine  estimates" obtained  using  wind data alone.   Detailed analyses to perform
  this step  are described  in Section  3.0.
      S*6P  2-—Assign  the incident to the  unwind MSA most  likely culpable.  The
  analysis in Step 1 will  identify  a fairly broad geographical region. This region
  is one  where  an air parcel reaching an  03 monitor  at  the time of  an  observed
  high concentration  is most likely located during  the  time of day  having  high
  emissions  subject to  several  hours  of  meteorological conditions conducive for
 0,  formation (i.e.,  8 a.m. - noon,  LOT).   If the  local  MSA is included within
 the identified geographical region,  the incident in question  is not considered
 to be a case  of  overwhelming  transport.   If  the  local MSA  is  excluded,  the
 identified geographical  area is  searched  for other,  upwind MSA's.   Generally,
 if one MSA/CMSA  is much  larger  in terms of emission rates than any other in the
 identified region, it is selected as the most likely culpable source of the  03
 observed downwind.  The  SIP covering  the identified culpable  MSA/CMSA should
 demonstrate that projected  controls are  sufficient to  reduce  the  level of  03
 observed downwind on the incident in question  to <; 0.12 ppm.  If  the  SIP  for
 the culpable  MSA/CMSA   shows  that  it  is  sufficient  to  reduce  higher   03
 concentrations than  that  observed downwind to £ 0.12  ppm under several  sets of
 meteorological conditions,  this should ordinarily suffice.
     It  may sometimes happen that there  are several  MSA's within  the  identified
 region,   all  of which are about the  same  size.   In such cases,  it  may not be
possible to single out  one culpable upwind MSA.  An  alternative for dealing with
this situation  is to  review SIP's  for each  to  assure projected  controls  in each

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  MSA would be sufficient to reduce 03 downwind to <; 0.12 ppm during  the  incident
 being reviewed.
      steP  3.	Tighten	local   controls   if  upwind   culpability cannot  be
 established.  Several undesirable outcomes, from the viewpoint of  the  downwind
 MSA, might result from  Step  2.   First,  the large identified culpable  MSA/CMSA
 may be able to demonstrate attainment without reducing 03 in the downwind MSA to
 < 0.12 ppm on  the incident  in question.  For example,  this could happen  if three
 valid years of data  existed  at  the downwind site and  the incident was one of
 three occasions attributable  to  the  upwind  MSA where 0.12  ppm could be exceeded
 over the 3-year period.  Recall  that the NAAQS is met if the expected number of
 daily maximum 03 concentrations  > 0.12 ppm  is less than or equal  to 1.0/year.
 Another undesirable outcome  could be  that  the methodology  to be  described  in
 Section 3.0 is unable to identify any  candidate  culpable MSA's.
      If either of the outcomes  described  in the previous  paragraph occur,  it
 will be necessary to raise the local  control target.  In  this case,  the  incident
 of  overwhelming transport  is treated  as  an "irreducible exceedance"  in  the
 procedure  to establish a control  target  for the  local MSA.  Ordinarily, an MSA
 having 03 monitors with three  valid years of observed  daily maxima would choose
 the highest fourth highest site-specific control  estimate as its.control target
 (USEPA,  1989a).   Now,  however,   with  one   exceedance which is assumed to be
 unaffected by local  controls and  for  which no commitment  is made by  upwind MSA's
to eliminate the problem,  we  must presume  that similar  incidents will   persist
at approximately the same frequency.  Thus,  the control target derived with EKMA
becomes the highest third highest  site-specific control target.  Table I presents

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 the appropriate  local  target  as  a  function  of the  number of  "irreducible
 exceedances."
      Step 4.	If necessary,  include consideration of "secondary peaks" on days
 with  daily maxima resulting from overwhelming  transport.   Occasionally,  there
 may be  two periods during  a day  in which  Oa > 0.12  ppm  is  observed at  a
 monitoring site.   On  days  subject to overwhelming  transport,  the  following
 example  is possible:  high 03 around noon  or early afternoon,  followed by lower
 concentrations  in mid-afternoon and highest concentrations in late afternoon or
 early  evening.   Suppose it  were  determined that the late  afternoon  (maximum)
 values  were  the likely  product of  overwhelming  transport, but  that  local
 emissions  most likely contributed to the earlier excursions above 0.12 ppm.  How
 would such a situation  be addressed? The overwhelming transport incident (i.e.,
 late afternoon  in this example) would be  handled  exactly  as described in  Steps
 2  and  3  above.    Local  control  estimates  addressing  the  secondary  (early
 afternoon)  peak  would  be made exactly as  they would for any  other day (USEPA,
 1989a; USEPA, 1989b).  If the  incident of overwhelming transport  is treated  as
 an  "irreducible  exceedance," the problem causing  the earlier  peak can  usually
 be  ignored.  It  has already  been conceded that  local controls will not be able
 to reduce  all ,03 observations on  this day to < 0.12 ppm.  An exception  to this
 would occur if there were four or more "irreducible exceedances" at a monitoring
 site  (assuming  three  valid  years of  observations).   Here,  the site-specific
 control estimate would  be the highest  control  estimate obtained considering all
days (with or without overwhelming transport) for which local emissions are

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                                     TABLE  I

                LOCAL  CONTROL  TARGETS AS  A  FUNCTION  OF  UNEXPLAINED
                      INCIDENTS OF OVERWHELMING TRANSPORT*
   NUMBER OF
  UNEXPLAINED
  EXCEEDANCES
       0

       1

       2

       S: 3
       LOCAL CONTROL TARGET TARGET


Highest fourth high site-specific estimate

Highest third high site-specific estimate

Highest second high site-specific estimate

Highest site-specific estimate
*Table assumes all sites have 3 years of valid data.
                                      10

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 believed to  contribute  to a daily maximum  03  concentration  or to a  secondary
 peak.
      2.2  Days Without Overwhelming Transport
      For most areas  of  the country,  "overwhelming  transport"  is likely to be
 relatively unusual.  That is,  most of the time  emissions  in the nearest MSA are
 likely to be an important  factor leading to  high  observed  Qj.  Local control
 strategies are ordinarily designed by determining what is necessary to reduce
 03  in  the  urban  plume to < 0.12 ppm.  Then, depending  on such factors as data
 completeness and  presence  of  "irreducible exceedances," a  control  strategy
 demonstrating attainment is selected.
      In the  foregoing procedure, transport is considered in the  form of boundary
 conditions.    Boundary conditions  are  specified  as pollutant concentrations
 advected into the  modeling domain.  These specifications are  multidimensional.
 That is,  they cover:
           four pollutants (03, NMOC, NOX,  and CO);
           >  2 altitudes  (in  the morning mixed layer and above the morning mixed
           layer  but below the  maximum afternoon mixing  height);
           two time  periods (base  period  and  the future  or projected period);
           compositional  assumptions for two pollutants  (mix of NMOC species and
           portion of  NOX which is N02).
      Figure  2 summarizes boundary conditions  considered  in an application  of
•city-specific EKMA.   Thus, the effect of  transport is considered  by estimating
present concentrations of 03, NMOC, NOX, and CO advected  into the modeling domain
and  then projecting  future concentrations  of  these  transported  pollutants.
                                      11

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 Procedures  for doing  this  are described  in Section  4.0,  as  is  use of  this
 information to derive  control targets.
 3.0  IDENTIFYING OVERWHELMING TRANSPORT
      3.1  Data Bases
      There are three potential  sources  of information which could be utilized
 to assess whether an incident of high 03 is a  product of overwhelming transport:
      -  surface wind data
      -  upper air wind data
      -  surface ozone observations
      Surface wind  data are  typically  measured about  2m above, the  ground at
 National  Weather Service  (NWS)  stations.   Observations  of  these  measurements.
 are made  at  hourly intervals.   However,   these  hourly observations  are  only
 archived  for a subset  of NWS stations.   These sites are identified in Appendix
 B  (Hatch, 1983).   Upper air measurements  are made at about 50 sites  (in  the
 order  of  300 miles apart) twice a day (0700-0800  EOT  and 1900-2000 EOT).  Like
 surface observations,  upper  air  measurements  at  any reported altitude are  made
 over very short '(nearly  instantaneous)  time  periods.   Ozone observations  are
 made continuously  at surface monitoring  sites.   Resulting continuous  traces at
 each site are  integrated  over hourly intervals  to archive hourly average 03
 concentrations.      Because   of  normal   diurnal   patterns   in   atmospheric
 stratification, surface deposition,  and chemical  reactions  between ozone  and
 scavenging species, surface measurements made  several  hours before  and  after as
well as during nighttime may not  be representative  of transported ozone.  Also,
surface wind measurements at night represent the local  flow regime  near the
                                      12

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                                            FIGURE 2
                              BOUNDARY CONDITIONS DEPICTING TRANSPORT
    Base Case
Boundary Conditions
     Aloft
  r- .......... ------- >
NMOC (speciated) ..... >
NOX (N02) ..... - ...... >
CO
                           Model ing
                    Projected Case
                  Boundary Conditions
                        Aloft
                
                NMOC'(speciated)	>
                NOX'(N02)	>
                CO'	-	>
                                               Model ing
   Surface Laver
0-
NMOC (speciated)	>
NOX (N02)--	>
:o
Domain
    Surface Laver
0,'	>
NMOC'(speciated)	>
NOX' (N02)		>
CO'			>
                                                13

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  ground close to the measurement site.  Therefore,  use of surface data is limited
  to  daytime  measurements.
      3.2  Use  of  Data
      The  procedures to be  suggested  in  this paper for  identifying cases  of
  overwhelming  transport rely  most  heavily on  surface  wind data.   The  method
  proposed herein is concerned with characterizing large scale motions rather than
  documenting precisely  the exact position of  an  individual  plume from hour  to
  hour.  Thus, the method utilizes hourly NWS surface wind data collected  within
  100 miles of  an  03  monitor  at which an incident  of  overwhelming transport  is
 suspected.  This distance  is about as far as one would ordinarily expect a given
 parcel  of air to travel during daylight hours under conditions conducive to high
 0,.   Because of concerns over  vertical  representativeness  of nighttime surface
 wind data, only observations recorded after 8  a.m.  are utilized.  These surface
 data are  used to construct  back trajectories  originating  at the ozone monitor
 at  the  time  of an  observed 03  incident  (usually the daily  maximum)  whose  cause
 is  in question.           .                                        «
      Two additional considerations are necessary in utilizing surface wind data.
 Due  to surface roughness and frictional  effects,  there is a likelihood that wind
 observations measured  at 2 meters  may underestimate typical wind speed within
 the  surface  mixed  layer.   Using information presented in U.S. EPA  (1988b), we
 have estimated these surface winds could underestimate average wind speed within
 a typical  daytime mixed layer by as much as a factor of  "2."  There  is  a second
 consideration, however,  which makes such a large underestimate of travel  distance
computed with surface data unlikely.  Recall that "hourly" wind data are  actually
observations  made over about 1  minute.  If  this information  is used to estimate
                                      14

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travel distance during  the  hour,  the estimate would probably be too high.   It
is unlikely that a 1-minute observation would persist without  deviation  in wind
direction or speed over the entire hour. This is particularly  true  for low wind
speeds.  The foregoing suggests that observed surface wind speeds may, perhaps,
need to be adjusted upward by some amount, but  by less than a factor of  "2."
     To arrive at  a  suitable surface wind adjustment factor,  we have computed
adjustment factors based upon wind profile exponents and typical  stabilities and
elevations.   We then  examined  a subset  of  high ozone  incidents  observed  in
Connecticut  and  Massachusetts during  June-August  1983.   Because  there is a
relatively dense  network of 03 monitors,  it is possible  to  "track"  an ozone
plume  moving  from western  to  northern  or  eastern Connecticut or to .central
Massachusetts on the  selected  incidents.   If an adjustment factor of "1.5"  is
applied  to  the  surface wind  data,  close  correspondence  between  a  plume
originating in the large New York CMSA during critical  times of  day and highest
observed 03 is  observed.  Use of this "1.5" factor, as well as the methodology
in general, was later tested against other incidents of high  ozone observed  in
Connecticut/Massachusetts during  summer 1983.   As described  in  Section 3.6,
reasonable agreement was  found between air quality observations and estimated
trajectories with this factor.
     3.3  Computing Back Tra.iectories
     In assessing  the  likelihood  of  overwhelming transport,  we are interested
in two things:   (a) the net distance a pollutant-laden a-ir parcel  has traveled
to reach an end point at a prescribed time  and  (b) a measure of the variability
in the  pathway followed  in  traversing this net distance.    For these  a back
trajectory originating  at the  time  and  location  of  an  03 observation  under
                                      15

-------
 question  is  calculated to establish  whether or not overwhelming  transport  is
 likely.   Prior  to describing  the procedure  for doing  so  in  detail,  it  is
 necessary to  distinguish  between wind velocity  (V)  and wind speed  (v).   Wind
 velocity is a vector quantity consisting  of  both  speed  and  direction (q>).  The
 wind speed is a scalar (1-dimensional) quantity.  In order to estimate the  path
 traveled by an air parcel  over  a time,  t, it is necessary to consider both  of
 these components.   Procedures for calculating back trajectories are  described
 in this section.   Figure 3 illustrates the difference in wind velocity and  wind
 speed.
      3.3.1  Estimating Distance Traveled
      For any time period t, net distance traveled is given by
           d = Vt
           d =* miles traveled
                                                                            (1)
           V - resultant wind velocity over time t, mph
           t » time,  hours
           If observations at several  sites  are weighted equally,  the average
resultant  wind velocity during  the  period t  is  given by
V - .»
        In                             n
        n ([2 (easterly component),]2  + Z (northerly component) ],
where n - number of sites
(easterly component),   =  (
(northerly component),  =  (v,)(COS
-------
   v,   =   average wind speed measured at site i during period t
   
-------
         FIGURE 3.   ILLUSTRATING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WIND
                     VELOCITY AND WIND SPEED
         Case 1
.  v =  2 mph  .. v = 2  mob
         Case 2


     . v = 2 mph .
                                     v = -2mph
 V = 2+2  - 2 mph
       2
V = 2 + (-
       2
                     0 mph
 v = 2+2  = 2 mph
       2
v = 2 + |-2j = 2 mph
        2
                              18

-------
where  Vt  is the  magnitude of  the  mean resultant  wind velocity  derived from
Equation  (3) for  period t,  i,  n,  R, are defined  in  Equations  (2)  and  (3).
     Variability  or uncertainty in  the direction of an estimated trajectory is
determined  using  wind direction data  (p,), and  by  comparing  average resultant
wind velocity  (Vt) with average wind speed  (vt).
     For  each  time  period,  t, we  define  a wind  variability angle  (8)  using
Equations (5)  or  (6).
        26
COS"
V
n 1
2_
•i-1 1 /P 2
1-1 i/K,
n
S
i=l
1
(R,2)
(5)
       or
        28
, COS'1
                                   Vt
                                                                            (6)
                    where  Vt  =  mean weighted resultant wind velocity for
                                  period t  (from  Equation  (3)  )
                           vt  «  mean weighted wind speed for period t
     For a single time  period,  "28"  is shown in Figure 1.  The angle 28  is
bisected by the weighted average wind  direction  ( 0  )  computed for  period t.
                                      19

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      3.3.3  Estimating Trajectories  for  Consecutive  Time  Periods
      We have seen, in Section 3.3.1, how to estimate distance covered by a back
 trajectory during a single time period t.  In Section 3.3.2,  we have also shown
 how to  estimate  the direction and  variability associated with the  trajectory
 during period t.   The time steps considered  in  these analyses are an  hour  in
 length.  Therefore,  it is necessary to repeat the procedure described in  Section
 3.3.1 and 3.3.2  for  several  hours,, beginning  at the time and location of the
 observed 03 concentration being assessed and ending at 8 a.m.  LOT.   In repeating
 these calculations, note that the distances between the trajectory starting point
 for a given hour and  the wind  monitors  (R,)  are' different at the  beginning of
 each time period. .Of course, the values for wind speed (vj  and direction (
-------
CD
                                                   3
                                                   O
                                                   a
                                                   o
                                                  U
                                                  2
                                                   o
                                                  PQ
                                                  •§


                          21

-------
           5.  Estimate wind  direction  variability (28)  for t = 0 using
 Equations (5) or  (6).
           6.  The distance traveled  in first  hour Ts  V0t.  The new starting
 point for beginning of period t =  1  (e.g.,  1  p.m.)  is V0t upwind in the
 direction of the mean wind direction q>, for t = 0.
           7.  Consider the next period,  (t  +  1).   Enter  appropriate values  for
 (RJt-u (
-------
 velocity.   If  this  is  positive,  the  smaller  of  the  two  calculated  values  for cpt
 applies. These checks are automatically made  in  the  spreadsheet program.  Third,
 as discussed in Section 3.2, remember to use the ad.iusted wind speed.  Finally,
 make sure wind speed, velocity, and time increments are expressed in consistent
 units.
     3.5  Using a Calculated Back Tra.iectorv to Identify Potentially  Important
          Sources of Observed  Ozone
     Once a back trajectory has  been constructed  as described in the preceding
 section,  the  next step  is  to  use the  resulting  information to  identify most
 likely  locations  for emissions having a major  effect  on  the observed 03  value
 being evaluated.  Our suggested methodology maintains that emissions between the
 morning rush hour (i.e.,  8 a.m. LOT) and noon  LOT are likely to be very important
 in leading to observed  high 03.   This  allegation  is based on two beliefs.  First,
 diurnal  emission   patterns   for  VOC   and   NOX  are   likely  to   produce  a
 disproportionately large amount  of emissions during this period.   Second,  and
 perhaps more importantly, meteorological conditions during this time of day and
 shortly thereafter  are most  opportune for high 03  to  form.   That  is,  the  sun
 will shortly reach  its zenith,  temperatures  are high and, in the  beginning of
 the period, dilution is  relatively poor.  Since  it takes several  hours  after
 emissions of precursors for 03  to reach maximum potential, 0800-1200  emissions
 should make a disproportionately large contribution  to  high observed 03. .If the
 calculated back  trajectory is not consistent with  0800-1200 local  emissions
making a contribution,  an  observed 03 level  may be a  product of  overwhelming
transport.
     There is an exception to the preceding rule of thumb.  This occurs,  because
routinely used anemometers cannot measure light winds reliably. Winds  < 2 mph

                                      23

-------
The following data are observed:
               Input - Example  1
         Wind       Wind Speed (v,)
     Time    Site i      	  (moh)
     1500  1
           2
           3

     1400  1
           2
           3

     1300  1
           2
           3

     1200  1
           2
           3

     1100  1
           2
           3

     1000   1
           2
           3

    0900   1
           2
          3

    0800   1
          2
          3
           Adjusted
Wind Speed  Wind Direction
         fmoh)          (jo,}
4
3
5
5
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
5
4
3
3
3
4
3
3
2
2
2
6
4.5
7.5
7.5
9
9
9
9
9
7.5
7.5
7.5
6
7.5
6
4.7
4.7
4.7
6
4.7
4.7
3
3
3
260
240
180
250
230
190
230
240
200
230
240
200
240
230
190
240
220
200
230
220
200
220
210
190
                                24

-------
may not exert sufficient force, on NWS instruments, to overcome inertia (USEPA,
1987c).  Thus,  the  following  exception  applies:
      If  the magnitude of  the mean average  resultant wind velocity  occurring
      between 8  a.m. and the  time  of  the observed 03  is < 3 mph,  it  should  be
      assumed that local emissions are  important factors  leading to observed high
      ozone.

      Magnitude  of the mean average resultant velocity  is determined  by noting
the straight!ine distance between the center!ine of the back trajectory at 0800
LOT and the 03 monitoring site and dividing this distance by the number of hours
between 0800 and time of the 03 observation  being evaluated.  For example,  if
the daily maximum 03 occurs at 4 p.m. and the straight!ine distance is  50 miles,
the mean average resultant wind velocity is  50 miles/8  hours = 6.25 mph.
      It  now remains   to  combine  information  regarding  emissions  likely  to
importantly  influence observed 03 with  calculated: back trajectories. This  is
done  by  identifying that  portion  of the trajectory corresponding to  0800-1200
LOT,  as shown in Figure 5.
      3.6  Evaluation  of the Methodology  to Identify Overwhelming  Transport
      The procedure  for identifying overwhelming transport,  described  in
Sections 3.3 -  3.5,  has been  evaluated examining incidents of 03 > 0.12 ppm near
Hartford, Connecticut, during June-August 1983. Six ozone sites  were  judged  to
be located such that  it may  be  sufficiently  ambiguous whether a high  incident
is due to local  Connecticut (Hartford)  emissions or due to overwhelming  transport
from more remote sources.   These six sites are  shown in  Figure  6.   In  all  there
are 21 days  during June-August 1983 on which one or more  of these  sites observed
03  > 0.12 ppm.    Figure 7 includes additional  key 03  sites  in  Connecticut and
Massachusetts.  By examining the timing and sequence of  high 63 at the sites  in
                                       25

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 Figure 7 during the 21 incidents of high 03 near Hartford,  preliminary judgments
 were made  about  whether  an incident is primarily attributable to overwhelming
 transport  from the New York  CMSA  or is  importantly  influenced  by more local
 emissions.  Table  II  presents timing of high 03 for days on which  high  03 was
 observed at the  six sites  shown  in  Figure  6. Under  each day,  all  sites with  03
 > 0.12 are listed  in order, from SW to NE.   Sites observing daily maximum  03 >
 0.18 ppm are asterisked.   Data  summarized  in Table  II were examined to make a
 preliminary judgment about  likely importance of  overwhelming transport vs. local
 influences.  Days were classified in one of three categories:
        I -overwhelming transport is the most important cause of an exceedance
       II -overwhelming transport is  likely, but  so are locally-induced secondary
           peaks,  or too  uncertain  to  make  a  preliminary call  based on  air
           quality data alone
      III -local emissions likely influence  observed exceedances  (overwhelming
           transport unlikely).                                               y
 Results  are presented  in  Table III.
      Methodology  described  in  Sections  3.3  and  3.4 was  next  applied to  see
                                                 "6
 whether conclusions drawn from the trajectory analyses are consistent with  those
 reached  independently from  the review of air quality data.
      Two  days  identified  in each class  were selected for analysis.  These were
 6/30, 6/15,  8/26, 8/8,  7/29, and 6/27.   For each day, two to three  monitoring
 sites  were  selected.   This  resulted  in  a total  of  16  cases  for review.
 Meteorological  data  for these  days  were  run in  the TRAJECTORY model.  Results
 of these modeling runs  are shown  in Table IV.  Graphical displays of the results
for several days  are shown  in Appendix A.
     In many  cases, preliminary  classifications  based upon air  quality  data
alone do not agree with classifications based upon results of the TRAJECTORY
                                      28

-------
                                                     CO  "O
                                                     O  
-------
 model.   This  may indicate that preliminary  indications  may not be sufficient
 to accurately relate emissions to an ozone exceedance at a downwind monitor.
      Times  of  observed  and  modeled  ozone  peaks  at  monitors  along  the
 trajectories are shown in Table V.   Of  the 16 cases for comparison, the exact
 time is predicted 6 times (38  percent), while for 4 other cases (25 percent),
 the time of the  modeled  ozone  maximum is within  1  hour  of  the observed peak.
 For  most  cases,  it  appears  that  the   predicted  trajectory  is   a  fair
 approximation  of  the  trajectory  actually  travelled.   The  lone exception  is
 8/8,  where observed peaks occurred much earlier  than modeled  peaks indicating
 the modeled wind speeds are  too low.
      3.7  Multi-dav Transport
      It should be apparent that the methods  discussed  thus  far address  single
 day transport  from  large  urban  plumes  which  overwhelm  any  contributions
 attributable to  more local (usually smaller) MSA's.  The  analysis  is  confined
 to  single  day situations  due  to (a)  unrepresentativeness  of  surface data
 during  nighttime  and (b)  lack of data  collected aloft.
     Multi-day  transport  is  considered  through  specification of  boundary
 conditions  to  urban scale models;   As a  result of longer residence times and
 overnight wind shear,  individual plumes more  than  1  day old  are expected to be
 less  identifiable  and  more diffuse.   Therefore, boundary conditions specified
 for use with urban scale models  should be representative of  large areas  (e.g.,
 >  18  'km  x  18  km).     Without  benefit   of  Regional  Oxidant  Model  (ROM)
 applications (Lamb, 1983, 1984), it is difficult to  estimate whether multi-day
transport can lead to  overwhelming transport into moderate size cities. Ozone
^>  0.12 ppm during  the  early  morning (e.g.,  before  10  a.m. LOT) may well
reflect such transport.  However,  it may also reflect recirculation from the
                                       30

-------
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31

-------
                                  0)
32

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                       TABLE II.  DAYS, TIMES OF OZONE > 0.12 PPM
June 4

Chicopee (12-3)
June 14

Danbury (10-6)*
Stratford (5-6)
New Haven (12-6)
Middletown (12, 3-8)
E. Hartford (12-2)
Stafford (12-4)
June 30

Greenwich (12-1)
Stratford (12-3)
New Haven (12-4)
Madison (12-3)
Middletown (4)
E. Hartford (4-5.)
Stafford (3-6)
Groton (12-3)*
Agawam (4-6)
Amherst (6)
Ware (5-7)
   June 5

Stratford (3)
Chicopee (11-2)

 .  June 15

Greenwich (11-4)*
Danbury (10-6)
Bridgeport (11-4)*
Stratford (11-5)*
Madison (11-4)*
Middletown (10-3)*
E. Hartford (11-2)*
Stafford (10-1)
Groton (12-3)
Ware (2-3)
Worcester (12-1)

   July 2

Bridgeport (11-3)
Stratford (12-3)*
New Haven (12-4)*
Madison (1-3)
Middletown (12-4)*
Stafford (6)
                    June 7
Chicopee (12)    Chicopee  (3)
   June 17

Stafford (1-3)
Amherst. (2-5)
Ware (3-4)
   July 3

Stratford (5-6)
New Haven (3-5)
Groton (1-7)
Agawam (2-6)
   June 27

Greenwich (12-4)
Danbury (11-4)
Bridgeport (12-4)*
Stratford (11-5)*
New Haven (11-4)*
Madison (12-4)*
Middletown (11-3)
Stafford (11)
Groton (11-3)*
Agawam (2-3)
   July 4

Greenwich (10-11)
Danbury (9-4)*
Bridgeport (10-2)
Stratford (2)
New Haven (10-3)*
Middletown (11-4)
E. Hartford (1-4)
Stafford (3-4)
Groton (9-6)
Agawam (10-8)*
Chicopee (10-7)*
Amherst (11-7)
                                       33

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   July 12

   Greenwich (11-5)*
   Bridgeport (3-5)
   Stratford (12-5)
   New Haven (1, 5)
   Madison (1-6)
   E.  Hartford  (1)
   Stafford  (8  pm-10 pm)
   Groton  '(midnight,
      12-8)*
   Agawam  (1-6)

   August  8
          TABLE II (CONTINUED)

           28-              July 29
   Danbury (12-4)*
   Agawam  (12-6)
   Chicopee  (12-4)
   Amherst  (12-5)
   Pittsfield  (6 pm-
              9 pm)*
  Greenwich (2-3)
  Bridgeport (1)
  Stratford (11-4)*
  New Haven (12-4)*
  Madison (1)
  Middletown (2-5)
  E.  Hartford  (6)
  Stafford  (6)
  Groton  (1)
  Agawam  (4-8)
 August 26

 Danbury (1-4)
 E.  Hartford (2-4)
 Stafford (12-5)*
 Agawam (4-5)
 Chicopee (4-6)
 Amherst  (1, 5-6)
                        August  16
  Greenwich  (11-3).
  Danbury  (4-5)
  Stratford  (11-3)
  New Haven  (11-12)
  Madison  (12-2)
  Middletown (4-5)
  E. Hartford (5).
  Groton (2)
 August  27

 Greenwich (12-4)
 Danbury  (4-7)*
 Bridgeport (12-4)
 Stratford  (12-4)
 New Haven  (12-5)
 E. Hartford (5-7)
Groton (12-4)*
 Danbury  (1-3)
 Middletown  (1)
 E. Hartford  (2)
 Stafford (1-4)
 Agawam (2-5)*
 Chicopee (4-5)
Amherst (3-6)
Ware (2-3)
                                             August  17
                         July 31

                       Danbury (3-5)
                       Agawam (2-7)
                                                                 August  2?
                   oLdTTora  (3)
                   Chicopee  (5)
  Greenwich  (11-4)     Stratford  m
  Danbury  (12-6)       F   Hari-FnvJi  f>\
  Bridgeport  (l£-3)    siafSrt &(3)
  Stratford  (11-5)*    -•  •       - '
  New Haven  (12-4)*
  Madison  (1-3)
  Middletown  (12-5)*
  E. Hartford (2-6)*
 Stafford (1, 4-7)
.Groton (11-7)
 Agawam (6 pm-8 pm)
 Chicopee  (5 pm-8 pm)
 Amherst (8  pm-9  pm)
*Sites observing 03  > 0.18 ppm
                                      34

-------
                  TABLE  III.  CLASSIFICATIONS  BASED  ON  REVIEW
                                OF AIR QUALITY DATA ALONE
        I
 II
III
   Days with likely      Days with both transport and  Days where overwhelming
overwhelming transport  local influences, or uncertain transport is unlikely
       6/30
       8/8
       8/16
       8/17
       8/27
6/15,
6/27
7/2
7/3
7/4
7/12
6/4
6/5
6/6
6/7
6/14
6/17
7/28
7/29
7/31
8/22
8/26
                                     35

-------
      \
TABLE IV.  COMPARISON OF CLASSIFICATION BASED UPON TRAJECTORY
                    MODEL AND AIR QUALITY DATA ALONE
                                            CLASSIFICATION
MONITOR
Amherst
Agawara
E. Hartford"
Ware
E. Hartford
Amherst
Amherst
Chicopee
Stafford
Agawam
E. Hartford
Agawam
Chicopee
Stafford
Agawam
Stafford
DATE
6/30
6/30
6/30
6/15
6/15
8/26 (6-7 pm)
8/26 (1-2 pm)
8/26
8/26
8/8
8/8
7/29
7/29
7/29 .
6/27
6/27
TRAJECTORY MODEL
I
I
I
II
II
. .. I
III
I .
I
I
I
I
I
I
II
III
AIR QUALITY DATA
I
I
I
II
II
III
III
III
III
I
I
III
III
III
II
II
                              36

-------
                TABLE V.  COMPARISON OF OBSERVED AND PREDICTED
                              TIMES OF MAXIMUM OZONE
Date
6/30
6/30
6/30
8/26
8/26
8/26
8/8
8/8
7/29
Starting
Location
Amherst
E. Hartford
Agawam
Amherst
Chicopee
Stafford
Agawam
E. Hartford
Agawam
Monitor
Chicopee
Bridgeport
New Haven
New Haven
Bridgeport
Danbury
Agawam
Danbury
E. Hartford
Bridgeport
Bridgeport
New Haven
Bridgeport
Bridgeport
Greenwich
Predicted Time
of Max. Ozone
6
1
1
3
2
2
5
2
4
1
4
5
4
2
1,
Observed Time
of Max. Ozone
5-6
2-3
3-4
3-4
2-3
2-3
5-6
3-4
3-4
1-2
1-2
3-4
1-2
12-1
1-2
7/29
Stafford
E. Hartford
2-3
                                      37

-------
 CMSA/MSA under  review.   Incidents of  early morning 03 NAAQS exceedances need
 to be examined on a case-by-case basis to see which of these two possibilities
 is most  likely.   If recirculation  is judged  the more  likely cause  of the
 incident, it will  probably have to be treated  as  an  "irreducible exceedance"
 (see Section 2.1) unless a more sophisticated modeling approach like the Urban
 Airshed Model  (UAM) is used.
      Incidents  of 03 > 0.12  ppm  in the  early  morning  are likely  to  be
 relatively rare.  The more typical case is one where moderate 03 and precursor
 concentrations,  representing  a mix  of multi-  and single-day  transport,  are
 advected  into  an MSA.  Section 4.0 outlines  appropriate  assumptions  regarding
 boundary  conditions in the absence of a ROM  analysis.
 4-°   CONSIDERING  TRANSPORT  DURING   INCIDENTS   WHERE  LOCAL   FMTSSTOMS   flPF
      SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTORS  TO Q7QNF
      In  this  section,  we  consider  incidents   of high  03  in  which   local
 emissions play  a significant role, but in which transport is still a factor.
 For  such  incidents, urban  scale  models (like UAM  or  city-specific EKMA) are
 used  to evaluate whether locally prescribed  controls are sufficient to  reduce
 03 1 0.12 ppm on modeled days.  Difficulty  in reaching this goal   is affected
 by:   (a)  present  levels  of ozone and  its precursors  transported  from  upwind
 sources  and  (b)  assumptions   made  about   how   concentrations  of presently
transported  pollutants may  change between  the. base  and projected  periods.
Urban scale  models treat the  following transported species  of  pollutants as
boundary conditions.
     (a) Ozone
     (b) NMOC (and its composition)
                                       38

-------
    *  (c)  NOX (and  its composition)
      (d)  CO
      Each of  these  is  considered  separately in  the following  subsections.
 During  certain times of day  (early morning, night),  surface  measurements may
 not be  representative of pollutants transported  into  an  MSA.  Therefore,  it is
 sometimes  necessary  to  provide  concentration  estimates  for  two  or  more
 vertical  layers.
 4.1  Ozone
      4.1.1   Present Conditions  (Base Case^
      Use  of surface 03 measurements  is recommended as the most  feasible  means
 for estimating  transported 03 during particular  incidents  of  interest  for
 modeling.
      The  guidance  in USEPA (1989a)  recommends assuming  transported  03 in  the
 surface layer  to be 0 ppm.  This  assumption is justified because the  modeled
 trajectory  begins  in the  .center of a  city  where  aged,  transported  03  is
 presumed  to have been removed  by surface deposition  or  scavenged by  NO,.  A
 constant  value for 03 aloft  equal  to that  seen at  a  representative upwind
 monitor(s)  during the hour following breakup  of the nocturnal  inversion  is
 recommended.   If time of the inversion breakup  is not  known, use the  10-12  LOT
 average (i.e., average of    10 a.m.  and 11  a.m.  readings).  Use of a constant
 03 value aloft is  justified by  the presumption that further 03 formation  in a
 layer trapped aloft, away from fresh  sources of precursors, will be limited by
 lack of NOX,  reactive  NMOC,  or both.
     4.1.2  .Projected (Future^ Conditions
     In the  absence of a regional scale analysis,  Figure 8  should be used to
estimate future transport,  as described  in USEPA  (1989a).  Curves in Figure 8
                                       39

-------
 were derived using changes  in typically  observed  03 levels predicted as likely
 with  OZIPM4/EKMA  (USEPA,  1989a)  at the  end  of 1  day's  irradiation  under
 various assumed sets of meteorological conditions and moderate (~ 20 percent)
 VOC emission reductions.
 4.2  Nonmethane Organic Compounds
      4.2.1  Present NHQC
      It is important to emphasize  that  NMOC data collected to derive NMOC/NO,
 ratios for use  in EKMA should  not be used to estimate  boundary conditions.
 These measurements are typically made  in center cities.   Therefore,  they  are
 not  likely  to   represent  NMOC  values   averaged  over  large  distances   in
 relatively rural  areas.
      If rural  upwind  NMOC  data  are  not  available,  a  diurnally  constant
 default value suggested  in USEPA (1989a)  is  recommended.
      Use  of  constant  default   NMOC   concentrations  and  speciations   are
 recommended for  the layer  aloft  (USEPA,  1989a).  These are presented  in Table
 VI.   These values  are  derived  from  early morning  (- 6-9 a.m.)  measurements
 conducted  upwind  from several cities using  aircraft  (USEPA,  1987c).  For  the
 reasons  described  in  USEPA (1989a), NMOC .in the surface layer may be assumed
 to  be  0  in an EKMA  analysis.
     4.2.2  Future  Transported NHQC
     In  the absence of  regional  scale modeling  information, it is recommended
 that  future  transported NMOC  be reduced 20  percent  in  all  vertical  layers.
 Composition should  remain  constant.   These  assumptions  are  consistent  with
those used to derive future transported 03 estimates in Figure 8.
                                        40

-------
 4.3   Oxides  of Nitrogen
      4.3.1   Present Transported NO
      If  EKMA  is  used,  surface transport  of  NO,  can be  ignored.   Constant
 default  assumptions recommended in USEPA  (1989a)  should be used  (i.e.,  2 ppb
 NOJ  for NOX  aloft.   It  can  be assumed that  this NOX  is all present  as N02.
      4.3.2   Future  Transported NQu
      In  the  absence of any rationale to  the contrary, it is  recommended that
 transported  NO, levels and composition be assumed constant.
      4.4  Carbon Monoxide
      Large changes  in relatively  high- urban concentrations  of CO may  affect
 sensitivity  of 03  to changes  in  VOC  and NOX emissions.   However, background
 levels of CO are  low and may not  be  subject to dramatic changes.  Therefore,
even   though  EKMA can consider transported CO,  this  factor can most likely be
 ignored without affecting estimated 03 values.
                                     -41

-------
    t-


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-------
                 TABLE  VI.   RECOMMENDED DEFAULT VALUES FOR EKMA
           Total  NMOC  aloft
           NO, aloft
           Speciat ion  of  NMOC aloft
                               OLE
                               PAR
                               TOL
                               XYL
                               FORM
                               ALD2
                               ETH
                               UNR
30 ppbC
 2  ppb

 .020
 .498
 .042
 .026
 .070
 .037
 .034
 .273
Source:  USEPA, 1989a
                                      43

-------
 5.0   REFERENCES CITED

 Baugues,   K.   A.,   Support  Document  for  Selection   of   Default   Upper  Air
 Parameters for EKMA.  (Oct.  iga7a).                        ~~~          	

 Hatch,  W.  L.,  Selection Guide to Climatic Data Sources. Key to Meteorological
 Records Documentation No. 4.11,  National  Climatic Data Center, Ashville,  NC,
 (July 1983).
Lamb,  R.  G.,  A Regional-Scale flOOO km) Model of  Photochemical  Air  Pollution.
Part  1. Theoretical  Formulation.  EPA-600/3-83-085  (1983).

Lamb,  R.  6.,  A Regional-Scale flOOO km) Model of  Photochemical  Air  Pollution.
Part  2. Input  Processor  Network Design.  EPA-600/53-83-085  (1984).

U.S.  EPA, OAQPS, Guideline on Air Quality  Models (Revised^.  EPA-450/2-78-027R,
(July 1986a).

U.S.  EPA, OAQPS, Industrial Source Complex (ISC) Dispersion  Model  User's  Guide
- 2nd  Edition  (Revised). Volume I.  EPA-450/4-88-002a,  (June  1988b),  p.  2-2.

U.S.  EPA, OAQPS, Procedures for Applying Citv-Specific  EKMA.  EPA-450/4-89-012,
(July  1989a).

U.S.   EPA,  OAQPS,   On-Site  Meteorological  Program  Guidance  for  Regulatory
Modeling Applications. EPA-450/4-87-013* (June 1987c).

U.S.  EPA,  OAQPS,  Federal  Register  Proposal  for  Post-1987  Ozone and Carbon
Monoxide Policy. Preliminary Draft,  (August 28, 1987d), Appendix I.

U.S.  EPA,  ORD, ASRL, Nonmethane  Organic Carbon Concentrations  in Air Masses
Advected Into Urban Areas in the United States. (May 1987e).

U.S. EPA,  OAQPS,  User's Manual for OZIPM4. Volume  I. EPA-450/4-89-009a,  (July
1989b).

-------
6.0  ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
     The  authors  would like  to  acknowledge  ideas  and contributions obtained
in  discussions with  Dr.   Robert  Lamb,  formerly of  the  Atmospheric Science
Research  Laboratory,  EPA.   In addition,  several  helpful  references and  ideas
were provided  by staff of the Source  Receptor Analysis  Branch,  OAQPS, EPA.
Special  recognition   is  due  Mrs.  Cynthia  Baines  for her  splendid clerical
support in preparing and assembling this report.
                                      45

-------

-------
              APPENDIX A
USER'S MANUAL FOR THE TRAJECTORY MODEL
                 A-l

-------
 PURPOSE
      The  TRAJECTORY model  is  intended for  the purpose  of identifying areas
 with  emissions of  ozone precursors  that are  likely  to contribute  to ozone
 exceedances  on a specific  day.   This  is accomplished by  using surface wind
 speeds  and  directions from several  nearby  meteorological  stations.   A back
 trajectory is  then defined  from the  time  of  the ozone  exceedance to the
 8-12  a.m.  LOT  period.     Due  to  the  uncertainty that  surface  winds  are
 representative of meteorological  conditions  aloft during the  nighttime, this
 model  is only  to be applied for ozone  exceedances  occurring no later than 8-9
 p.m. LOT.    The  TRAJECTORY  model  cannot, therefore,  address  transport that
 occurs overnight.  For a more detailed discussion of how to  consider transport
 in ozone  State Implementation  Plans,  see  earlier  sections  of  this  document.
 The remainder of this  section outlines how to apply the TRAJECTORY model.
 DESCRIPTION  OF MODEL AND  INPUTS
     The TRAJECTORY  model is a  spreadsheet which consists  of  three  sections:
 an input  section,  a results  section,  and a calculation section.   -The  user
 should only be concerned  with the  first two sections.
     The  input  section  requires  three sets of  input from  the user:   UTM
 coordinates  for  the  monitor  which  has  the   observed  ozone  exceedance, UTM
 coordinates for the meteorological stations,  and wind speed  and  directions for
 each hour  from 8 a.m.   LOT to the  time of  the  ozone  exceedance for from 3-10
meteorological  stations.  In  addition there are locations to enter the monitor
name or  number and  the  date  for  the  simulation.   An accompanying program,
called UTM,  which is  on  the disk  with the  TRAJECTORY model  can be  used to
determine UTM  coordinates given  latitude and  longitude.   It can also be used
                                     A-2

-------
to  "force"  all UTM  coordinates  to  be  in  the  same  UTM  ozone.   This  is  necessary
before running the  TRAJECTORY model.
     The wind speed data must be  in knots.   The user  can  convert other units
to  knots by using the following conversion factors  (m/sec x  1.9425  =  knots;
mi/hr x 0.86839 = knots; km/hr  x 0.53959 = knots).  This  can  easily be done by
creating an input spreadsheet and  converting units  prior  to entering  the data
into the TRAJECTORY model.  Wind directions  represent the direction from which
the wind is blowing.  For example, a wind blowing from the south (to  the
north) is 180*.
     UTM coordinates should only be included for meteorological stations that
are to be utilized  in the particular day and/or monitor under review.
Including coordinates for meteorological stations and then not providing
hourly meteorological data for that station can lead to erroneous results.
RUNNING THE MODEL
     The description of the operation of this program will assume that  the
user is working with LOTUS 123.  Many other spreadsheet programs can  also be
                                        *
used to run the TRAJECTORY model,  but the commands may differ from  those
listed here.  The user should consult the spreadsheet manual he or  she  is
working with to determine equivalent commands to those shown.
     LOTUS  123 should be started up and the TRAJECTORY model loaded using the
File Retrieve (/FR) command.  If you are running TRAJECTORY from a  diskette,
you must first use  the File Directory (/FD) command to instruct LOTUS where to
find the files.   The file to be retrieved is TRAJECT2.WK1.
     Data can be entered into the  spreadsheet in two ways:  either  manually
or by building spreadsheets with input data and then using the File Combine
                                     A-3

-------
 Copy (/FCC) command to  incorporate these  spreadsheets  into  the  TRAJECTORY
 spreadsheet.  Both methods will be described and an example using  the  File
 Combine Copy command will be outlined.
      Figure A-l shows what the  input section of the TRAJECTORY  Model looks
 like.  The areas that require the user to input data are highlighted with
 boxes.   Each area will be described.
      The UTM coordinates for the ozone monitor with the observed ozone
 exceedance are entered into cells E3 and F3.  Cell  E3 the UTM E (East)
 coordinate while cell  F3 contains the UTM N (North) coordinate.
      A  name or ID number for the ozone site is entered in cell  13.  The date
 of the  exceedance is  entered into cell  15.
      The UTM coordinates for the meteorological  stations are entered into
 cells C9 through D-18.   Cells C9 through CIS contain the UTM E coordinates,
 while cells D9 through  D18  contain  the  UTM N coordinates.
     The meteorological  data are entered into two areas:   cells  B26 and K38
 and B43-K55.  Cells B26-B38  contain the wind speeds for station  1,  while cells
 C26-C38  contain  the wind  directions for station  1.   The data for station 2 are
 entered  into cells D26-D38 and E26-E38.  Data for the  sixth  station is  entered
 into cell B43-B55 and C43-C55.
     To  manually enter data the  user must  move the  cursor to the appropriate
 cell, type  in the value and then press  the enter key.   The example  shown  below
will describe how to use the File Combine  Copy command  to enter  data.
     After all data has been entered the user must  push the  F9 key.  This
 instructs the program to carry out all calculations and should only take  a few
seconds.
                                     A-4

-------
                       FIGURE A-l



     INPUT SECTION OF  THE  TRAJECTORY MODEL

til
A i C » E
INPUT SECTION «>
X (IITH E)
MONITOR COORHNATES }
HET STATION COORDINATES
F 6 H I J

» (BIH H) RONITOR i 	 1
1 f
IATE 1 |

K

K (UTH E)   Y (UTI) N)

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1?
20
21
22
23
24
29
26
27
28
2?
39
31
32
33
34
39
36
37
38
3?
40
41
42
43
44
49
46
47
48
4?
50
91
92
93
94
99
STATION 1
STATION 2
STATION 3
STATION 4
STATION 9
STATION 6
STATION 7
STATION 8
STATION 9
STATION 10


HETEOR0106ICAL 8ATA

STATION 1 STATION 2 STATIONS STATION 4 STATION 9
UT IS (KNOTS) ) n US (KNOTS) ID IS (KNOTS) IB IS (KNOTS) ) W IS (KNOTS) IP

8-9 AH
9-10 AK
10-11 AH
11-12 AH
12-1 PH
1-2 PH
2-3 PH
3-4 PH
4-9 PH
9-6 PH
-7PH
-8PH
-9PH

-












STATION 6 STATION? STATIONS STATION 9 STATION 10
DT IS (KNOTS) II IS (KNOTS) ) It US (KNOTS) 11 IS (KNOTS) ) If IS (KNOTS) Ifi

-9 AH
-10 AH
0-11 AH
1-12 AH
2-1 PH
-2PH
-3PH
-4PH
-9PH
-6 PH
-7PH
-BPH
-9PH













                   A-5

-------
      The results section contains two sets of information:  an hour-by-hour
 position of the air parcel and an hour-by-hour summary of the meteorological
 conditions.  The wind speeds shown have been raised by 50 percent as described
 earlier in this document.  This section should be printed out in hard copy and
 saved after each run of the TRAJECTORY model.  The range of the results
 section is from A7..J102.
 EXAMPLE RUN
      This example will  assume that the user is running the TRAJECTORY model
 from a diskette located in Drive A.
      To set the appropriate directory type in /FD (file directory) then type
 in A:  and hit  enter.  Next type in /FR (file  retrieve).   Four file names
 should appear  on the  screen.   Move the cursor over such  that TRAJECT2.WK1  is
 highlighted, then  hit enter.   It may take  30  second to a minute  to load the
 program.   Hit  the  HOME  key to move to the  input  section.
      Move the  cursor  to cell  E3,  type in 704.31,  then  hit enter.   Move  the
 cursor to cell  F3, type in-4696.06,  then hit  enter.  These are the coordinates
 for the ozone  monitor.   Move  to cell  13, type  in  Amherst  and hit  enter.  Move
 to cell 15, type  in '8/26/83  and  hit  enter.
     Move  the  cursor  to cell  C9 and  type in /FCC  (file combine copy).   Type
 in E for  entire file  and  hit  enter.   Four  file names will  appear  on the
 screen.   In this case the correct  file, COORD.WK1,  is  highlighted,  so just  hit
enter.  The UTM coordinates for nine  meteorological 'stations have  been  stored
 in COORD.WK1.  The./FCC command copies this data  into  the  TRAJECTORY
spreadsheet.
                                      A-6

-------
      Move  the  cursor  to  cell  B26.   Type in /FCC and hit enter.   Enter N for
 named range.   The  computer will  ask for a range name.   Type in  PARTI  and hit
 enter.  The computer  will then display four file names.   Move the cursor over
 and  highlight  M82683.WK1, then push enter,  windspeed and direction data for
 the  first  five meteorological stations have been entered.
      Move  the  cursor  to  cell  B43.   Type in /FCC and hit  enter.   Enter N for
 named range.   Type  in PART2 and  hit enter.   Move the cursor to  highlight
 M82683.WK1 and then push enter.  Data  for the  last  four  meteorological
 stations has now been entered.   (The user is encouraged  to  review the manual
 for  his or her particular spreadsheet  program  to determine  how  to set up these
 input  spreadsheets).
      The final step is to push F9.   It should  only  take  a few seconds to make
 all  the necessary calculations.
      Move to the results section (A57-J102)  and  review the  results.   Table  A-
 1 contains the results from the example  run which should be  compared  with the
 user's results.
      The final step is for the user  to manually  plot the coordinates  in  the
 results section to determine the source  area.  This may be done manually or by
 using other comrnercially available  software programs.  Two approaches may be  ,
 taken.  The user might only plot coordinates for 8 a.m. - noon to define  the
 source area.   However, it is often desirable to  plot the entire trajectory  so
 that the location of the parcel  at specific times can be compared to  ozone
peaks at monitors passed over during the day.  Figure A-2 displays the
trajectory for this day and monitor.  Other examples are also shown.  It
should be noted that all  examples shown are exactly that; only examples.  They
                                     A-7

-------
not be considered final TRAJECTORY analyses for the monitors and days
illustrated.
                                    A-8

-------
                                    TABLE A-l
                            OUTPUT FOR  EXAMPLE  RUN
W RESULTS SECTION W                oniitKST

      HOURLY LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL
       LEFT ENE
 LST    X (UTH E)  T(UT« N)
LDT
                                  CENTER
                              X (UTH E)   T (UTH N)
9 PH
8PM
7PH
6PH •
5PH
4PH
3PH
2 PH
1PH
NOON
11 AK
10 AH
9 AH
SAM
704.3
. 704.3
704.3
688.6
668.6
648.2
626.8
602.5
578.7
554.5
527.7
502.7
482.2
465.0
4696.
4696.
4696.
4681.
4665.
4646.
4627.2
4611.3
4594.0
4578.1
4567.3
4554.5
4543.5
4538.2
      HOURLY SUHHARY OF KETEOROL06T
8-9 PH
7-8 PH
6-7 PH
5-6 PH
4-5 PM
3-4 PH
2-3 PH
1-2 PH
12-1 PH
•11-12 AM
10-11 AH
9-10 AH
8-9 AH
0.0
0.0
22.0
26.7
28.1
29.2
30.2
30.5
29.6
29.8
28.9
24.1
18.9
                            0.0
                            0.0
                           21.2
                           26.1
                           27.8
                           28.6
                           29.0
                           29.5
                           29.0
                           28.9
                           28.1
                           23.3
                           18.0
704.3
704.3
704.3
692.7
677,0
659.7
642.6
623.8
605.1
584.8
561.5
MO. 5
523.4
508.8
4696.1
4696.1
4696.1
4678.3
4657.4
4635.7
4612.8
4590.7
4567.9
4547.3
4530.2
4511.6
4495.7
4485.3
AVERA6E
KIND SPEED
(KILOMETERS
PER HOUR)
RESULTANT
KIND SPEED
(KILOMETERS
PER HOUR)

RESULTANT
KIND
DIRECTION
                                           0
                                           0
                                          213
                                          217
                                          219
                                          217
                                          220
                                          219
                                          225
                                          234
                                          229
                                          227
                                          235
                                                    8/26/83
    RI6HT E96E

X(UTHE)  Y(UTHN)
                                                        704.3
                                                        704.3
                                                        704.3
                                                        697.7
                                                        687.0
                                                        673.2
                                                        661.2
                                                        649.3
                                                        637.0
                                                        621.4
                                                        603.2
                                                        587.3
                                                        575.0
                                                        564.3
                                                   THETA
      0
      0
      15
      13
      9
      12
      16
      15
      12
      14
      14
      15
      18
                                                            4696.1
                                                            4696.1
                                                            4696.1
                                                            4675.9
                                                            4652.1
                                                            4628.0
                                                            4602.0
                                                            4575.6
                                                            4548.8
                                                            4524.4
                                                            4502.0
                                                            4478.8
                                                            4459.1
                                                            4444.6
mmmimmmmmwtttmmmmmtmmmmmmmmmmmmmtmmmmmw
                                      A-9

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ADDITIONAL EXAMPLE RUNS
         A-ll

-------
                                           TABLE A-3
  immiimmimimmimmtimmimmmmiiimiwtmimmimmitiwmmmmimi
  III RESULTS SECTION lit                  AHHERST                  6/30/83
         HOURLY LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL

         LEFT ED6E

 LIT     X  (UTN E)   YIUTH N)
 9PH
 8PH
 7PH
 6PH
 5PN
 4PH
 3PH
 2 Pit
 1PH
 WON
 11 AN
 10 All
 9 AH
 8 All
 LBT
                                  CENTER

                              X (UTN E)   Y  (UTII N)
701.3
704,3
704.3
692.0
672.5
6S3.6
636.6
626.8
618.9
608.6
598.$
590.5
581.7
569.7
4696.1
4696.1
4696.1
4672.9
4650.4
4623.2
4604.3
4584.0
4564.6
4552.3
4548.8
4549.0
4551.0
4555.3
        HOURLY SUNHARY OF HETEOROL06Y
AVERAGE
HIM SPEEi
(KILONETERS
PER HOUR)
8-9 PN
7-8 PH
6-7 PH
5-6 PN
4-5 PN
3-4 PN
2-3 PN
1-2 PN
12-1 PN
11-12 AN
10-11 AN
9-10 AN
8-9 AH .
0.0
. 0.0
27.0
31.0
33.3
27.7
24,4
22.5
19.1
14.0
10.2
* 10.5
13.0
RESULTANT
HP SPEED
(XliOHETERS
PER HOUR)

      0.0
      0.0
      26.2
      29.8
      33.1
      25.5
      22.5
      20.9
      16.0
      10.8
      8.0
      9.1
     12.7
704.3
704.3
704.3
698.0
685.5
669.2
660.9
659.6
659,3
657.5
651.9
645.6
636.9
624,3
4696.1
4696,1
4696.1
4670.7
4643.6
4614.8
4590,7
4568.2
4547.3
4531.4
4522.2
4517.3
4514,8
4516.5
RESULTANT
1INI
DIRECTION
                                                   194
                                                   205
                                                   210
                                                   199
                                                   183
                                                   181
                                                   187
                                                   211
                                                   233
                                                   254
                                                   278
                                        RI6HT E98E
                                   X (UTN E)   YIUTN N)
                                                           704.3
                                                           704.3
                                                           704.3
                                                           704.3
                                                           699.9
                                                           686.2
                                                           688.0
                                                           695.4
                                                           702.8
                                                           710.0
                                                           711.6
                                                           709.8 •
                                                           703.4
                                                           690.7
                                                             THETA
                                                             14
                                                             16
                                                             5
                                                             23
                                                             23
                                                             22
                                                             33
                                                             40
                                                             39
                                                             29
                                                             12
                                              4696.1
                                              4696.1
                                              4696.1
                                              4669.9
                                              4640.4
                                              4610.3
                                              4584.8
                                              4563.6
                                              4544.0
                                              4529,7
                                              4519.1
                                              4511.3
                                              4504,8
                                              4504,0
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                                            A-12

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-------
                                             TABLE  A-4
  wwumwwmwwwwwimwwmwmmmwwwwwwwmmwwmwmw
  W RESULTS SECTIOH W                   E HARTFORI                  4/30/83
         KIT LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL

         LEFT EIGE

 LIT     X (DTK E)   Y(UTH H)
 9PH
 9PK
 7 PI)
 6 PI)
 5PN
 4PM
 3PH
 2PH
 1PH
 11 AH
 10 AN
 f AN
 SAN
 LSI
                                    CENTER
                                X (UTX E)  r (UTN N)
696,7
676,?
676.9
696,9
696.9
676.2
659.9
650.6
642.7
632.4
622.4
614,6
606.0
594.8
4628.5
4628.5
4628.5
4628.5
4628,5
4604.1
4585.0
4564.3
4544.6
4532.2
4528,4
4528.3
4530.2
4534.8
         HOURLY SUHNARY OF HETEOROL06Y
AVERASE
HIM SPEED
(XILOHETERS
PER HOUR)
8-9 PN
7-8 PN
6-7 PN
5-6 PN
4-5 PH
3-4 PN
2-3 PN
1-2 PH
12-1 PH
11-12 AH
10-11 AN
9-10 AN
8-9 AH
0,0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.8
27,8
24.7
22,8
19,3
14.0
10.1
10.3
12.5
RESULTANT
KIND SPEEB
(KILOMETERS
PER HOUR)

       0.0
       0.0
       0.0
       0.0
      31.9
      25.1
      22,7
      21,2
      16.2
      10.7
       7,8
       8.8
      12.1
696.9
696.9
696.9
696,9
696,9
682,3
675.8
675.4
675.6
673.8
668.5
662.6
654.2
642.3
4628.5
4628.5.
4628.5
4628.5
4628,5
4600.1
4575.8
4553.1
4531.9
4515.9
4506.5
4501.4
4498.6
4500.3
RESULTANT
VINJ
DIRECTION

      0
      0
      0
      0
    207
    195
    181
    180
    186
    209
    229
    251
    278
                                          R16HT E96E

                                     X (UTN E)   Y(UTN N)
                                                               696.9
                                                               696.9
                                                               696.9
                                                               696.9
                                                               696.9
                                                               689.1
                                                               693.7
                                                               702.4
                                                               710.5
                                                               717.7
                                                               719.7
                                                               718.5
                                                               712.7
                                                               700.7
                                                                  THETA
                                                                          0
                                                                          0
                                                                         13
                                                                         26
                                                                         23
                                                                         22
                                                                         33
                                                                         40
                                                                         40
                                                                         31
                                                                         14
                                                 4628.5
                                                 4628.5
                                                 4628.5
                                                 4628.5
                                                 4628.5
                                                 4597.5
                                                 4572.8
                                                 4551.8
                                                 4532.3
                                                 4517.8
                                                 4507.2
                                                 4499,6
                                                 4492,9
                                                 4491.5
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                                               A-14

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       WEM8E
iff
         HOUR)
8-9 n
7-8 PM
6-7 M
5-6 n
4-5 PJf
3-4 Pfl
2-3 P/f
1-2 n
12-1 PK
1H2 /IN
10-11 /Id
HO M
8-? All
0,0
0.0
0.0
32.7
32.7
27.8
24.8
23.0
19.5
14,2
10.6
19.7
13.4

UT
m
5 fit
in
6PK
5P»
4PH
3P«
2P«
in
mm
u n
10 M
8 /Iff
iff r EJSE
x «ir» E)
692.1
692.1
692,1
692.1
672.4
651.4
635.9
626.9
619.3
697.9
597.1
588.6
579,4
566.7

win n
4659.0
4659.0
4659.0
4659.0
4633.4
4609.7
4590.3
4569.2
4549,0
4537.0
4533.4
4534,1
4536.4
4540.3
(mOKETERS
PER HOUR)

     0.0
     0.0
     0.0
    32.2
    31,6
    25,0
    22.9
    21.6
   16.4
   11.4
    8.4
    9.6
  13.2
                                           TABLE A-5

                                      mmmwwwt
                                         CEHFER
                                                                   EJ8E
692,1 4659,0
"2.1 4459.0
«2.1 4659.0
692.1 4659,0
«76.9 4630,4
«2,8 4602,3
iJ7.1 4578,0
654,8 4555,1
*«,6 4533.5
653.3 4517.3
*46.7 4508,0
"9.5 4503.5
«0.2 4501,3
M'l 4503.2

W.I 4659.0
692.1 4659.0
«2.1 4459.0
"2.1 4659.0
MM 4628.5
*75.3 4597.4
«9,8 4573.2
/OA A •
^•2 4551.8
W.5 4533.5
7»2,2 4514.0
702.4 4504.4
«M 4494.7
"2.1 4490.5
678.9 4499.4
                                         MMCTIW
                                              0
                                            208
                                            206
                                            193
                                            181
                                           180
                                           192
                                           215
                                           238
                                         •257
                                          278
                                                      THEM
   9
   0
   0
  19
  15
 26
 22
 29
 32
 37
37
27
                                   A-16

-------
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-------
                                            TABLE  A-6
 ttwwwwtwmmmwmwwwwmwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwmmww
 III RESULTS SECTIOH III                  AHHERST                    8/26/83
 LJT

 7PH
 8PH
 7PH
 6PH
 5PH
 4PH
 3PH
 2PN
 1PH
 HflOH
 11 AH
 10 AH
 7 AH
 8 AH
1ST
HOURLY LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL
LEFT EDGE
X (UTH E)
704,3
704,3
704.3
704.3
704.3
704.3
704.3
704.3
680.2
658.4
642.5
626.7
607.7
573.4

Y(UTH X)
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4684.8
4667.0
4650.1
4631.7
4617.3
4613.0
                                           CENTER
X (UTH E)   Y (UTH N)
        HOURLY SUHRARY OF NETEOROL06Y
8-7PH
7-8 PH
6-7 PH
5-6 PH
4-5 PH
3-4 PH
2-3 PH
1-2 PH
12-1 PH
11-12 AH
10-11 AH
9-10 AH
8-7 AH
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
28.1
27.8
25.7
25.7
23.7
20.3
                                   0.0
                                   0.0
                                   0.0
                                   0.0
                                   0.0
                                   0.0
                                   0.0
                                  26.6
                                  26.7
                                  24.7
                                  24.1
                                  21.2
                                  17.5
704.3
704.3
704.3
704.3
704.3
704.3
704.3
704.3
685.2
668.3
658.3
650.4
640.6
627.7
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4676.1
4677.5
4656.7
4634.1
4611.4
4572.5
4578.8
AVERA6E
VINI SPEE1
(KILOHETERS
PER HOUR)
RESULTANT
BIND SPEED
(HLOHETERS
PER HOUR)

RESULTANT
HINI
DIRECTION
               0
               0
               0
               0
              226
              21?
              204
              179
              207
              218
                               RI6HT EtSE
X (UTK E)   Y(UTH N)
                              704.3
                              704.3
                              704.3
                              704.3
                              704,3
                              704.3
                              704.3
                              704.3
                              692.3
                              681.3
                              678.1
                              677.0
                              678.6
                              676.1
                                                                THETA
        0
        0
        0
        0
       1?
       15
       16
       21
       26
       30
            4676.1
            4676.1
            4676.1
            4676.1
            4696.1
            4676.1
            4696.1
            4676.1
            4672.3
            4647.8
            4623.3
            4579.3
            4578.0
            4560.7
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                                              A-18

-------
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   A-19

-------
                             TABLE A-7
 wwwtwwwwwwwtwiwwwmwwwwwwwwwwwwwwmwmww
 W RESULTS SECTION W            CHICOPEE            8/26/83
 LIT

 ?PH
 8PN
 7PH
 6PH
 SPH
 4 PR
 3RD
 2PH
 1 PX
 NOOK
 inn
 10 AH
 9 AH
 8 All
LIT
HOURLY LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL
LEFT EDGE
X (UTH E)
701.8
701.8
701.8
701.8
682.0
662.5
641.4
617.0
593.0
' 568.8
541.7
516.5
496.2
479.0

Y(UTH N)
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4657.0
4637.2
4618.1
4602.4
4585.2
4569.3
4558.8
4545.8
4533.9
4528.2,
                             CENTER
    X (UTH E)  Y (DTK H)
      HOURLY SUHNARY OF XETEOROL06Y
AVERA6E
HIHI SPEE8
(KILOHETERS
PER HOUR)
RESULTANT
KIND SPEED
(KILOHETERS
PER HOUR)

RESULTANT
KIND
DIRECTION
8-9 PH
7-8 PH
6-7 PH
5-6 PH
4-5 PH
3-4 PH
2-3 PH
1-2 PH
12-1 PH
11-12 AH
10-11 AH
9-10 AH
8-9 AH
0.0
0.0
0.0
26.7
27.9
28.9
30.2
30.5
29.7
. 29.8
29.2
24.2
18.9
 0.0
 0.0
 0.0
26.1
27.8
28.5
29,0
29,5
29.0
29.0
28.4
23.6
18.1
 0
 0
 0
217
220
218
221
220
225
235
229
226
235
                        RI6HT EB6E
        X (UTH E)  Y(UTH N)
701.8
.701.8
701.8
701.8
686.0
668,3
650.9
631.8
613.0
592.5
568.8
547.2
530.3
515.5
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4653.3
4631.8
4609.3
4587.5
4564.8
4544.1
4527.5
4509.0
4492.6
4482.2
701.8
701.8
701.8
701.8
690.7
674.9
661.8
649.5
637.0
621.2
602.1
585.5
572.8
561.8
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4650.4
4627.5
4602.2
4576.0
4549.3
4524.9
4503.1
4480.0
4460.2
4445.9
                                           THETA
                                                0
                                                12
                                                5
                                                10
                                                16
                                                15
                                                12
                                                14
                                                14
                                                14
                                                17
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                               A-20

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-------
                                              TABLE A-8
  wwwwwtwiwmwwwwwwiwwwwiwwwwwwwwuwwwmwww
  Wl RESULTS SECTION Ml                   STAFFORD                   8/24/83
         HOURLY LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL

         LEFT EBBE

 LPT     X (UTR E)   Y(UTH H)
 9 PR
 8 PR
 7PH
 iPli
 5 PR
 4 PR
 3PH
 2 PI!
 1PK
 HAH
 10 AN
 9 AH
 8 AX
 LIT
                                     CENTER
                                X (UTR E)   Y (DTK N)
716.5
716,5
716,5
716.5
716,5
695.4
675,0
650.5
626.2
602.0
575.?
54?,5
528.9
512,1
4650.2
4650.2
4650,2
4650,2
4650,2
4631.8
4612.5
4597.7
4581,7
4566.1
4557.3
4547,9
4534,8
4526,5
         HOURLY SURRARY OF METEOROLOGY
AVERA6E
HIM SPEE&
(KILOMETERS
PER HOUR)
8-9 PH
7-8 PR
6-7 PR
5-6 PR
4-5 PR
3-4 PH
2-3 PR
1-2 PR
12-1 PR
11-12 AH
10-11 AH
9-10 AH
8-9 AR
0,0
0.0
0,0
0,0
28,4
28.5
29.6
30.2
29.6
28.7
28.6
24.9
19.1
RESULTANT
KIN! SPEEI
(HLORETERS
PER HOUR)

       0.0
       0.0
       0,0
       0.0
      27.9
      28.2
      28.6
      29.1
      28.8
      27.5
      28.0
      24.4
      18,8
716.5
716,5
716.5
716.5
716.5
699,6
681.9
662.2
643.1
623.4
600.7
576.7
559.0
544.0
4650.2
4650,2
4650.2
4650,2
.4650,2
4628.0
4606,0
4585.3
4563,3
4542.4
4526.7
4512.3
4495.5
4484.2
RESULTANT
VIN&
DIRECTION

      0
      0
      0
      0
    217
    219
    224
    221
    223
    235
    239
    226
    233
                                           RI6HT EWE
                                                                   X  (UTfl E)   Y(UTK N)
                                                               716.5
                                                               716.5
                                                               716.5
                                                               716.5
                                                               716.5
                                                               704.3
                                                               690.0
                                                               676,2
                                                               663.9
                                                               649,6
                                                               632.3
                                                               611,6
                                                               597,5
                                                               584,9
                                                                  THETA
                                                                          0
                                                                          0
                                                                          0
                                                                          11
                                                                          8
                                                                          15
                                                                          16
                                                                          14
                                                                          16
                                                                          11
                                                                          11
                                                                          11
                                                 4650.2
                                                 4650.2
                                                 4650.2
                                                 4650.2
                                                 4650.2
                                                 4625,2
                                                 4600,8
                                                 4575,7
                                                 4549.4
                                                 4524.3
                                                 4502,9
                                                 4484,1
                                                 4464.2
                                                 4450.3
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                                               A-22

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                                    TABLE  A-9
 iwwumiwwwwwwwmw$www»wwwwwmwwww«wwwwm«wH
 W RESULTS SECTION til               'MM                8/8/83
       HOURLY LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL

       LEFT EDGE

 LIT    X (OTR E)  Y(UTR H)
 9 PR
 BPR
 7 PR
 6 PR
 5 PR
 4PH
 3PK
 2PH
 IPX
 11 AK
 10 M
 9 AH
 8 AH
 LDT
                             CENTER
                         X (UTH E)  r (UTK N)
692.1
664.5
684.1
670.4
647.9
619.8
594.8
573.3
555.0
532.5
509.9
489.9
473.5
463.5
4659.0
4637.8
4613.0
4590.9
4571.7
4555.1
4533.8
4514.3
4495.6
4481.8
4474.8
4472.7
4473.8
4476.7
       HOURLY SURRARY OF HETEOROL06Y
AVERA6E
HID SPEED
(KILOMETERS
PER HOUR)
8-9 PH
7-8 PH
6-7 PR
5-6 PR
4-5 PH
3-4 PR
2-3 PR
1-2 PR
12-1 PR
11-12 AH
10-11 AH
9-10 AH
8-9 AH
22.4
25.0
26.4
30.6
35.3
34.7
31.7
28,7
27,7
24.8
21.6
18.6
13.1
RESULTANT
KIND SPEED
(KILORETERS
PER HOUR)

     22,0
     24.9
     26.0
     29.5
     32.6
     32.9
     29.0
     26.2
     26.4
     23.7
     20.1
     16.4
     10,3
692.1
690.9
690.6
680.8
664.2
644.6
627.7
616.0
606.9
589.7
570.3
552.3
537.3
527.7
4659.0
4637.1
4612.2
4588.1
4563.7
4537,6
4509.4
4482.8
4458.3
4438.2
4424.8
4415.7
4409.0
4405.1
RESULTANT
KIND
DIRECTION

   183
   181
   202
   214
   217
   211
   204
   200
   221
   235
   243
   246
   248
                                 RIGHT EDBE
                                                    I (UTK E)  Y(UTK N)
                                                  692.1
                                                  695.4
                                                  697.2
                                                  691.6
                                                  681.9
                                                  673.8
                                                  666.9
                                                  666.9
                                                  66B.7
                                                  658.5
                                                  643.9
                                                  630.5
                                                  620.3
                                                  615.1
                                                    THETA
                                                          12
                                                          5
                                                          10
                                                          15
                                                          23
                                                          19
                                                          24
                                                          24
                                                          18
                                                          17
                                                          21
                                                          28
                                                          38
                                       4659.0
                                       4637.3
                                       4612.5
                                       4587.0
                                       4559.1
                                       4527.5
                                       4495.4
                                       4466,4
                                       4440.2
                                       4415.9
                                       4397.2
                                       4382.2
                                       4369.3
                                       4360.4
tmmwmmmtmmmmwmmmmmmmmtmmmwmmmmmmmmmmm
                                     A-24

-------
UTM NORTH
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   A-25

-------
                                              TABLE  A-10
 mwwwwwwtiwmmwwmwmmmwmmwmwwwwwmwwwmmmt
 W RESULTS SECTION «$                    E HARTFORD                  B/8/83
 9PK
 8PK
 7PK
 6PK
 5PH
 4PH
 3PH
 2 PI!
 i PK
         HOURLY LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL
         LEFT EDGE
 LBT     X (UTH  E)   Y(UTH N)
 11  AK
 10  AD
 9 AH
 8 AK
 LIT
                                     CENTER
                                 X(UTKE)   T(ITIH)'
694.9
694.9
696,9
685,4
663.4
634,7
608.0
583.2
567.0
547.5
525.6
505,6
488.9
478.8
4628.5
4628.5
4628.5
4605.8
4587,3
4574.2
4555,7
4538,1
4517.5
4502.3
4494,9
4492.2
4493,1
4496,0
         HOURir SUHXARY OF KETEOROLOGY
AVERAGE
KIND  SPEED
(KILDKETERS
PER HOUR)
6-9 PH
7-8 PK
6-7 PI
5-6 PK
4-5 PI!
3-4 PK
2-3 PK
1-2 PK
12-1 PK
11-12 Ml
10-11 AK
9-10 AK
8-9 AK
0.0
0.0
25.5
29.6
34,5
34,7
33.0
28,2
26.0
24.0
21,3
18,6
13.1
RESULTANT
HIND SPEED
(KILOHETERS
PER HOUR)

       0.0
       0.0
      25.4
      28,8
      31,6
      32,5
      30,4
      26,1
      24.8
      23.1
      20.2
      16.7
      10,5
696.9
696.9
696.9
687.8
670.7
649,8
631.2
615.3
608,0
593.9
574.8
556.6
541.2
531.4
4628.5
4628.5
4628.5
4604.8
4581,6
4558,0
4531.4
4505,5
4480,4
4460.0
4447.0
4438.2
4431.7
4428.0
RESULTANT
UNI)
DIRECTION

      0
      0
    201
    216
    222
    215
    211
    196
    215
    236
    244
    247
    249
                                           RIGHT EDGE  ,

                                      X (UTN E)   Y(UTK H)
                                                                 696.9
                                                                 696.9
                                                                 696.9
                                                                 690.3
                                                                 679.1
                                                                 669.4
                                                                 661.3
                                                                 656.9
                                                                 659.5
                                                                 652.0
                                                                 637.2
                                                                 622,6
                                                                 611.7
                                                                 605.9
                                                                    THETA
                                                                            0
                                                                            6
                                                                           14
                                                                           24
                                                                           21
                                                                           23
                                                                           22
                                                                           17
                                                                           16
                                                                           18
                                                                           26
                                                                           37
                                                   4628.5
                                                   4628.5
                                                   4628,5
                                                   4604.0
                                                   4577,5
                                                   4547.4
                                                   4516.0
                                                   4485,9
                                                   4459.9
                                                   4436.2
                                                   4418.5
                                                   4404.5
                                                   4392.0
                                                   4383.1
wwwmwwmmwwwwmwwmwwwwmwwwwwwwmwwwmmw
                                                 A-26

-------
UTM NORTH
                                     ID

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   A-27

-------
                                             TABLE  A-11
  immmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmimmmimmmmm
  til RESULTS SECTION W                   STAFFORD                   7/29/83
         HOURLY LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL

         LEFT E8BE

 LPT     X (DTK E)   Y1UTH N)
 9PH
 8PX
 7PH
 6PX
 5PX
 4PX
 3PM
 2PX
 1 PH
 11 AX
 10 AH
 9 AX
 8 AX
 LDT
                                     CENTER
                                X (UTX  E)   Y (UTX N)
716,5
716.J
716. 5
716,5
716.5
716.5
716.5
691.9
663.9
63S.2
613.6
585.8
557.7
527.5
4650.2
4650.2
4650.2
4650.2
4650.2
4650.2
4650.2
4634.9
4624.1
4608.4
4590.8
4575.7
4559.1
4544.5
         HOURLY SUNHARY OF HETEORDL06Y
AVERAGE
KIN!  SPEE8
(HLDKETERS
PER HOUR)
8-9 ra
7-8 PX
6-7 PX
5-6 PX
4-5 PX
3-4 PX
2-3 PX
1-2 PX
12-1 PX
11-12 AX
10-11 AH
9-10 AX
8-9 AX
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
29.9
30.6
31.4
31.5
33.3
33.7
33.7
RESULTANT
VINI SPEEB
(HLOXETERS
PER HOUR)

       0.0
      '0.0
       0.0
       0.0
       0.0
       0.0
      29.0
      30.0
      30.1
      30.2
      31.6
      32,6
      33.5
716.5
716.5
716.5
716.5
716.5
716.5
716; 5
696.2
671.1
650.8
632.3
610.7
587.6
559.0
4650.2
4650.2
4650.2
4650.2
4650.2
4650.2
4650.2
4629.5
4613.1
4590.8
4566.9
4543.8
4520.8
4503.4
RESULTANT
HIM
HRECTION
                                                         0
                                                         0
                                                         0
                                                         0
                                                         0
                                                       224
                                                       237
                                                       222
                                                       218
                                                       223
                                                       225
                                                       239
                                           RIGHT EJ6E
                                      X (UTX E)   YJUTX N)
                                                                716.5
                                                                716.5
                                                                716.5
                                                                716.5
                                                                716.5
                                                               '716.5
                                                                716.5
                                                                701.7
                                                                680.6
                                                                667.3
                                                                656.4
                                                                643.2
                                                                626.6
                                                                599.7
                                                                  THETA.
                                                                  0
                                                                 14
                                                                 12
                                                                 16
                                                                 17
                                                                 18
                                                                 14
                                                                  6
                                                  4650.2
                                                  4650.2
                                                  4650.2
                                                  4650.2
                                                  4650.2
                                                  4650.2
                                                  4650.2
                                                  4625.3
                                                  4604.0
                                                  4576.9
                                                  4548.7
                                                  4520.0
                                                  4491.9
                                                  4471.8
wtiwwwwmmwwwwwjwwwwwmwjjwwiwmmmmwwmwmww
                                                A-28

-------
                        UTM NORTH
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                           A-29

-------
                                             TABLE  A-12
 wmmtmwwmmwmmwwwmmwmwnmwwwwwmwwwmmmww
 ISI RESULTS SECTION W                    mm                     7/29/83
 9PK
 8PK
 7PH
 6PK
 5PK
 4PK
 3PK
 2 PR
 1 PK
         HOURLY LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL
         LEFT EDGE
 LJT     X (UTK E)   Y(UTH N)
 11 AK
 10 AK
 9 AK
 8 AK
 L»T
                                    CENTER
                                X (DTK E)   Y (DTK N)
492.1
692.1
692,1
692,1
692,1
677.0
657,0
631,8
605.1
579.3
558.7
534,9
508,3
483,4
4659.0
4659.0
4659.0
4659,0
4659,0
4626,9
4600.5
4581,1
4559,2
4533,4
4510.2
4494,8
4480,3
4469,5
         HOURLY SUHHARY OF BETEOROLD6Y
AVERAGE
ma SPEE5
(KILOHETERS
PER HOUR)
8-9 PH
7-8 PK
6-7 PK
5-6 PB
4-5 PK
3-4 PK
2-3 PK
1-2 PK
12-1 PK
11-12 AH
10-11 AK
9-10 AK
8-9 AK
0.0
0.0
0.0
0,0
35,7
33.6
34.0
37.5
38.6
32.6
30.5
31.6
27.9
RESULTANT
VIM SPEED
(KILOKETERS
PER HOUR)

       0.0
       0.0
       0.0
       0.0
      35.5
      33.1
      31.8
      34.5
      36.5
      31.1
      28.3
      30.3
      27.1
692.1
692.1
692,1
692.1
692.1
680,1
664.9
648.3
632,1
616.3
603.6
587,4-
566.0
544,5
4659,0
4659.0
4659.0
4659,0
4659.0
4625.7
4596,2
4569,1
4538.6
4505,7
4477.3
4454,2
4432.6
4416,2
 RESULTANT
-«NJ
 DIRECTION

       0
       0
       0
       0
     200
     207
     212
     208
     206
     204
     215
     225
     233
                                          RI6HT EDGE

                                     X (UTK E)   Y(UTK N)
                                                               692.1
                                                               692.1
                                                               692,1
                                                               692.1
                                                               692.1
                                                               683.3
                                                               673.4
                                                               667.4
                                                               664,4
                                                               660.2
                                                               656.8
                                                               650.5
                                                               636,1
                                                               619,1
                                                                  THETA
                                                                          0
                                                                          0
                                                                          0
                                                                          0
                                                                          5
                                                                          10
                                                                          21
                                                                          23
                                                                          19
                                                                          18
                                                                          22
                                                                          17
                                                                          14
                                                 4659.0
                                                 4659.0
                                                 4659.0
                                                 4659.0
                                                 4659.0
                                                 4624,7
                                                 4593.1
                                                 4561,8
                                                 4527.4
                                                 4491,2
                                                 4460.3
                                                 4432.7
                                                 4406.0
                                                 4384.9
mimmtmmmsmmmmmmmmmmmmmtimmmmmummmmmmmimi
                                               A-30

-------
                         UTM NORTH
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                            A-31

-------
                                            TABLE  A-13
  wtwiwwwwiwmmwmwwtwiwwwwwwmwmwtwwwwwmwww
  Ml RESULTS SECTION II*                   CHICOPEE                  7/29/83
         HOURLY LOCATION OF SIR PARCEL

         LEFT EDGE

 LDT     X (ITI E)  Y(UTH H)
 9PH
 8 PH
 7PH
 6PH
 5FH
 4 PIT
 3PH
 2PH
 1 PH
 NODH
 11 AH
 10 AH
 9 AH
 8 AN
 LtT
                                    CENTER
                               X (DTK E)   Y (UTH N)
701,8
701.8
701.8
701.8
701.8
685. 0
667.7
£42.0
614.8
588.3
560.1
5!8.9
511.4
485.9
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4645.7
4617.1
4600.9
4584.2
4561.4
4539.9
. 4522.6
4508.3
4497.0
         HOURLY SUHHARY OF METEOROLOGY
AVERSE
IIIW SPEED
(ULOHETBS
PER HOUR)
8-9 PH
7-8 PH
6-7 PH
5-6 PK
4-5 PH
3-4 PH
2-3 PH
1-2 PH
12-1 PH
11-12 AH
10-11 AH
9-10 Alt
8-9 AH
0,0
0.0
0.0
0.0
33.5
33.4
32.0
35,0
37,2
37.0
29.6
32.0
28.5
RESULTANT
HIM SPEED
(ULDHETERS
PER HOUR)

       0.0
       0.0
       0.«
       0.0
      32.9
      33.4
      30.4
      31.9
      35.0
      35.4
      27.7
      30.7
      27.9
701.8
701.8
701.8
701.8
701.8
690.3
673.6
654.2
636.2
618.9
598.4
584.3
562.3
539.6
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4674.0
4643.1
4614.2
4590.8
4564,5
4534.0
4505.2
4481.4
4460.0
4443,8
RESULTANT
IINI
DIRECTION

      0
      0
      0
      0
    200
    210
    220
    214
    210
    216
    211
    226
    235
                                         RI6HT EDGE
                                    X (UTH E)   Y(UTH H)
                                                              701.8
                                                              701.8
                                                              701.8
                                                              701.8
                                                              701.8
                                                              696.0
                                                              680.0
                                                              668.7
                                                              663.1
                                                              657.1
                                                              646.0
                                                              641.2
                                                              626.1
                                                              607.2
                                                                THETA
                                                                         0
                                                                         0
                                                                         0
                                                                         0
                                                                        10
                                                                         1
                                                                        18
                                                                        24
                                                                        20
                                                                        17
                                                                        21
                                                                        16
                                                                        12
                                                4674.0
                                                4674.0
                                                4674.0
                                                4674.0
                                                4674.0
                                                4641.6
                                                4612,4
                                                4584.1
                                                4552.7
                                                4518.2
                                                4484,6
                                                4457.3
                                                4430.6
                                                4410,1
itmmmmmtmttmimitmmmmmmmmmmiwmmmmmmmttmtmmmm
                                              A-32

-------
                      UTM NORTH
                                            8      g
8-
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                         A-33

-------
                                          TABLE  A-14
  ll?llll™lll™™l™^
  III RESULTS SECTION III                  A&ANAH                    6/27/83
 LJT

 9PK
 8PK
 7PK
 6PK
 5PK
 4PM
 3PH
 2PK
 1PH
 NOON
 11  AK
 10  AK
 9 AK
 BAR
 L&T
HOURLY LOCATION OF AIR PARCEL
LEFT EDBE
X (DTK E)
692.1
692.1
452,1
692,1
672,1
692.1
692.1
660.5
624,4
593.8
568.1
546,7
525.1
504.0

YIUTH N)
4659.0
4659.0
4659,0
4659.0
4659,0
4659.0
4659.0
4650.9
4659,2
4663,0
4665.2
4668.3
4662,2
4656.6
                                          CENTER
     X (UTH E)   r (DTK N)
        HOURLY SUKKARY OF METEOROLOGY
AVERAGE • •
KIN? SPEED
(KILOKETERS
PER HOUR)
RESULTANT
VIM SPEED
(XILOKETERS
PER HOUR)

RESULTANT
KIND
DIRECTION
8-9 PK
7-8 PK
6-7 PK
5-6 PK
4-5 PK
3-4 PK
2-3 PK
1-2 PK
12-1 PK
11-12 AK
10-11 AK
9-10 AK
8-9 AK
0,0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0,0
0.0
33,4
37,9
32,0
27.5
23.9
23.0
23.0
 0,0
 0.0
 0.0
 0.0
 0.0
 0.0
32,6
37,1
30,8
25.8
21.7
22.4
21.9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
243
271
261
255
253
241
237
                                                                   RIGHT EDGE
            X  (UTK E)   YfUTK N)
692.1
692.1
692.1
692.1
692.1
692.1
692.1
663.0
626.0
595.6
570.6
549.9
530.3
512.0
4659.0
4659.0
4659.0
4659.0
4659.0
4659.0
4659.0
4644.3
4645.0
4640.1
4633.4
4627,2
4616.4
4604.4
692.1
692.1
692,1
692.1
692,1
692.1
692.1
666.9
630.5
602.7
581,5
565.3
548.6
535.1
4659.0
4659.0
4659.0
4659.0
4659,0
4659.0
4659.0
4638.3
4631.4
4618.2
4603.5
4589.1
4574.2
4557.0
                                                              THETA
                                                                      0
                                                                      0
                                                                      0
                                                                      0
                                                                      0
                                                                      0
                                                                     13
                                                                     12
                                                                     16
                                                                     20
                                                                     25
                                                                     13
                                                                     18
mwwmwwwwwwwwmmwwwwwmwwwwmmwmwmwtmmmu
                                             A-34

-------
UTM NORTH
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   A-35

-------

-------
       APPENDIX  B
SOURCES OF HOURLY SURFACE WIND DATA
           B-l

-------
     Surface  wind data  may be obtained  by contacting  the  National Climatic
Data Center (NCDC), Federal  Building,  Asheville, North  Carolina 28801. Data
tapes containing  "surface  airways  observations"  are  assigned the code,
TD-1440.  Wind direction data are  available for 36 points of the  compass, wind
speed  is  entered  in knots.   National  Weather  Service sites  with archived
hourly data are listed in Table A-l.
                                     B-2

-------
                   TABLE B-l.  CLASS 1 NWS WEATHER STATIONS WITH HOURLY DATA
  Dal

 AT abama
 Alaska
  Iti
Arizona




Arkansas


California
 Birmingham
 Huntsville
 Mobile
 Montgomery

 Anchorage
 Annette Island
 Barter Island
 Bethel
 Betiles
 Big  Delta
 Cold Bay
 Fairbanks
 Gulkana
 Homer
 Juneau
 Kodi ak
 McGrath
 Naknek
 Nome
 Point Barrow
 St.  Paul  Island
 Talkeetna
 Valdez    *
 Yakutat

 Flagstaff
 Phoenix
 Tucson
 Prescott  (FAA  operated)

 Ft.  Smith
 Little  Rock

 Bakers-field
 Bishop
 Fresno
 Los Angeles
Mt. Shasta
Red Bluff
Sacramento (FAA operated)
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Francisco
Santa Maria
 Other Name
                                                 Madison
                                                 Bates
                                                 Dannelly
                                                 Allen


                                                 Interm
                                                 W.  Rogers  W.  Post
State

Pullian
Sky Harbor
Adams

Meadows

Hammer
                                                Executive
                                                County Airport
                                                Lindbergh

                                                Public
 Station
 Number

 13876
 13856
 13894
 13895

 26451
 25308
 27401
 26615
 26533
 26415
 25624
 26411
 26425
 25507
 25309
 25501
 26510
 25503
 26617
 27502
 25713
 26528
 26442
 25339

 03103
 23183
 23160
 23184

 13964
 13963

 23155
 23157
 93194
 23174
 24215
 24216
 23232
 23161
 23188
23234
23273
                                      B-3

-------
       TABLE B-l.  CLASS 1 NWS WEATHER STATIONS WITH HOURLY DATA (Cont'd)
 State

 Colorado
 Connecticut

 Del aware

 District of
 Columbia

 Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
 City

 Alamosa
 Colorado Springs
 Denver
 Eagle (FAA operated)
 Grand Junction

 Hartford

 Wilmington

 Washington
 Apalachicola
 Daytona Beach
 Ft.  Myers
 Jacksonville
 Key  West
 Miami
 Orlando (FAA operated)
 Pensacola
 Tallahassee
 Tampa
 West Palm Beach
                    *
 At!anta
 Augusta
 Columbus
 Macon
 Savannah

 Hilo
 Honolulu
 Kahului
 Lihue

 Boise
 Lewiston
 Pocatel1o

Chicago
Moline
Peoria
Rockford
Springfield
 Other Name


 Peterson
 Stapleton
 County Airport
 Walker

 Bradley

 Greater Wilm.  AP

 National
                                                 Page
                                                 Jet Port
                                                 Hagler
                                                 Palm Beach
Bush

Lewis B. Wilson
Travis

Lyman Field
John Rogers
                                                Nez Perce County
O'Hare
Quad City
Greater Peoria
Greater Rockford
Capital
 Station
 Number

 23061
 93037
 23062
 23063
 23066

 14752

 13781

 13743
 12832
 12834
 12835
 13889
 12836
 12839
 12815
 13899
 93805
 12842
 12844

 13874
 3820
 93842
 3813
 3822

 21504
 22521
 22516
 22536

 24131
 24149
 24156

 94846
 14823
 14842
94822
93822
                                     B-4

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           TABLE  B-l.   CLASS  1  NWS  WEATHER  STATIONS  WITH  HOURLY DATA (Cont'd)
 State

 Indiana
 Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky


Louisiana




Maine



Mary!and

Massachusetts


Michigan
 Citv

 Evansville
 Ft.  Wayne
 Indianapolis
 South Bend

 Des  Moines
 Sioux City
 Water!oo

 Concordia
 Dodge City
 Good!and •
 Russell  (FAA operated)
 Topeka
 Wichita

 Lexington
 Louisville

 Baton Rouge
 Lake  Charles
 New Orleans
 Shreveport

 Bangor
 Caribou
 Port!and

 Baltimore

 Boston
 Worcester

Alpen
Detroit  (FAA operated)
Detroit
Flint
Grand Rapids
Lansing
Muskegon
Sault Ste. Marie
Traverse City (FAA
operated)
 Other Name

 Dress
 Baer
 Weir Cook
 Blosser

 Renner

 Billard


 Blue  Grass
 Standtford

 Ryan

 Moisant


 Dow



 Friendship

 Logan
Phelps Collins
City
Grand Haven
Bishop
Kent Co. Airport
Capital City
County
                                                Cherry Cap
 Station
 Number

 93817
 14827
 93819
 14848

 14933
 14943
 94910

 13984
 13985
 23065
 93997
 13996
 3928

 93820
 93821

 13970
 3937
 12916
 13957

 14606
 14607
 14764

93721

14739
94746

94849
14822
94847
14826
94860
14836
14840
14847

14850
                                     B-5

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       TABLE B-l.  CLASS 1 NWS WEATHER STATIONS WITH HOURLY DATA (Cont'd)
 State

 Minnesota
 Mississippi


 Missouri
 Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire

New Jersey
 City

 Duluth
 International Falls
 Minneapolis
 Rochester
 St. Cloud

 Jackson
 Meridian

 Columbia
 Kansas City
 Kansas City
 Springfield
 St. Louis

 Billings
 Butte
 Glasgow
 Havre
 Helena
 Kalispell
 Lewiston
 Miles  City  (FAA  operated)
 Missoula

 Lincoln
 Norfolk
 North  Platte
 Omaha
 Scottsbluff

 Desert Rock
 Elko
 Ely
 Las Vegas
 Reno
 Tonopah  (FAA operated)
 Winnemucca

 Concord

Atlantic City
Newark

Other Name


St. Paul

Whitney Mem.
Thompson
Key
Peg



Lambert
Logan
Silver Bow Cty Apt.

City County Arpt.

Glacier Nat! . Park


Johnson Bell

Karl Stefan Mem.
Lee Bird
Eppley



Yell and
McCarran
»





Station
Number
14913
14918
14922
14925
14926
3940
13865
. 3945
3947
13988
13995
13994
24033
24135
94008
94012
24144
24146
24036
24037
24153
14939
14941
24023
14942
24028
3160
24121
23154
23169
23185
23153
24128
14745
93730
14734
                                      B-6

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           TABLE B-l.  CLASS 1 NWS WEATHER STATIONS WITH HOURLY DATA  (Cont'd)
 State

 New Mexico
 New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
 Citv

 Albuquerque
 Clovis
 Farmington  (FAA operated)
 Roswe'l 1
 Truth or  Consequences
Albany
Binghampton
Buffalo
Massena
New York
New York
Rochester
Syracuse

Asheville
Cape Hatteras
Charlotte
Greensboro
Raleigh-Durham
Wilmington

Bismarck
Fargo
Minot
Williston

Akron
Cleveland
Columbus
Dayton
Mansfield
Toledo
Youngstown

Oklahoma City
Tulsa
 Other  Name

 Kirtland
 Cannon

 Walker

 (FAA operated)

 County AP
 Broome Cty AP
 Greater Buffalo AP
 Richards
 JFK
 Laguardia
 Monroe Cty
 C. E.  Hancock
                                                Douglas
                                                GSO-Hgh  Pt. AP
                                                RDU
                                                New Hanover Cty AP
                                                Hector Field

                                                Sloulin
                                                Hopkins AP
                                                Port Columbus
                                                JM Cox Day
                                                Lamm
Will Rogers
 Station
 Number

 23050
 23009
 23090
 23009
 93045
14735
4725
14733
94725
94789
14732
14768
14771

3812
93729
13881
13723
13727
13748

24011
14914
24013
24014

14895
14820
14821
93815
14891
94830
14852

13967
13968
                                     B-7

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            TABLE B-l.  CLASS 1 NWS WEATHER STATIONS WITH HOURLY DATA (Cont'd)
 State

 Oregon
 Pennsylvania
 Rhode  Island

 South  Carolina



 South  Dakota




 Tennessee
Texas
 Citv

 Astoria
 Eugene
 Medford
 North Bend (FAA operated)
 Pendleton
 Port!and
 Redmond (FAA operated)
 Salem
 Sexton Summit

 Al1entown
 Bradford (FAA operated)
 Erie
 Harrisburg
 Philadelphia
 Pittsburgh
 Wilkes Barre
 Williamsport

 Providence

 Charleston
 Columbia
 Greenville

 Huron
 Pierre  (FAA operated)
 Rapid  City
 Sioux  Falls

 Bristol
 Chattanooga
 Knoxville
 Memphis
 Nashville

Abilene
Amarillo
Austin
Brownsville
Corpus Christi
El  Paso
Ft. Roth
Houston
Lubbock
Lufkin (FAA operated)
 Other Name

 Clatsop Co.  AP
 Mahlon Sweet AP
                                                 Regional AP
                                                 Port Erie
                                                 State
Lycoming Cty.

Francis Green
W.W. Howes
Foss

Tri-County Airport
Lovell
                                                Metro
                                                English
                                                Mueller
                                                Rio Grande
                                                Cliff Haus

                                                DFW Reg. AP
                                                Int. Cont. AP
                                                West Air Term.
                                                Angelina Co.
 Station
 Number

 94224
 24221
 24225
 24284
 24155
 24229
 24230
 24232
 24236

 14737
 4751
 14860
 14751
 13739
 04823
 14777
 14778

 14765

 13880
 13883
 3870

 14936
 24025
 24090
 14944

 13877
 13882
 13891
 13893
 13897

 13962
 23047
 13958
 12919
 12924
23044
3927
12960
23042
93987
                                     B-8

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       TABLE B-l.   CLASS 1 NWS WEATHER STATIONS WITH HOURLY DATA (Cont'd)
 State

 Texas
 Utah
Vermont

Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
 Citv

 Midland
 Port Arthur
 San Angelo
 San Antonio
 Victoria
 Waco
 Wichita Falls

 Bryce Canyon (FAA

 Cedar City (FAA

 Mil ford
 Salt Lake  City

 Burlington

 Lynchburg
 Norfolk
 Richmond
 Roanoke
 Wallops Island
 Washington,  DC

 Olympia
 Quillayute
 Seattle
 Spokane
 Stampede Pass
 Yakima

 Beckley
 Charleston
 Elkins
 Huntington

 Eau Claire (FAA operated)
 Green Bay
 La Crosse
Milwaukee

Casper
Cheyenne
Lander
Rock Springs
Sheridan
 Other Name

 Sloan
 Jefferson Co.
 Math is

 Foster
 Black!and
 operated)

 operated)



 Ethan Allen



 Byrd AP


 Dulles



 Tacoma
                                                Kanawha
                                                Randolph Co.
                                                Tri-State
Austin Strabel

Mitchell



Hunt

County
 Station
 Number

 23023
 12917
 23034
 12921
 12912
 13959
 13966

 23159

 93129

 23176
 24127

 14742

 13733
 13737
 13740
 13741
 93739
 93738

 24227
 94240
 24233
 24157
 24237
 24243

 3872
 13866
 13729
3860

 14991
 14898
 14920
 14839

24089
24018
24021
24027
24029
                                      B-9

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                                     TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                              ff lease read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
                                                              3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
   TITLE AND SUBTITLE
   Consideration of Transported Ozone  and Precursors  in
   Regulatory Applications
              5. REPORT DATE
              6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
   Edwin  L.  Meyer, Jr. and Keith A.  Baugues
              8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO
                 EPA-450/4-89-010
                 JIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
   U. S.  Environmental  Protection Agency
   Office  of Air Quality  Planning and  Standards
   Research  Triangle Park,  North Carolina  27711
                                                              10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
              11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
    'ONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRES
   U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
   Office of Air Quality  Planning and Standards
   Research  Triangle Park,  North Carolina  27711
              13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                  Final
              14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
      'LEMENTARY NOTES
        This  document describes how to account for transport of ozone  or ozone
   precursors when using the  Empirical Kinetic Modeling  Approach (EKMA)  or the Urban
   Airshed Model  (UAM).

        .Appendix  A describes  how to apply  a  Personal Computer (PC) computer program
   to determine backtrajectories using surface wind data.
17.
                                 KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                   DESCRIPTORS
                                                b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS  C.  COSATI Field/Group
  Ozone
  VOC control strategies
  Photochemical modeling
 8. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
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  Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
   106
                                                20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
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                            22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (R»v. 4-77)   PREVIOUS EDITION is OBSOLETE

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  10.  PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER                                                       .......
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EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77) (Reverse)

-------