EPA-450/5-80-004
  Carcinogen  Assessment Group's
      Final Report on  Population
Risk to Ambient Benzene Exposures
                      by

                Dr. Roy E. Albert, Chairman
               Carcinogen Assessment Group
           U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
              Office of Air, Noise, and Radiation
           Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
           Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

                  January 10, 1979

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                          DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Strategies and Air Standards
Division of the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA,
and approved for publication.  Mention of trade names or commercial
products is not intended to constitute endorsement or recommen-
dation for use.  Copies of this report are available through the
Library Services Office (MD-35), U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, N.C.  27711, or from National;
Technical Information Services, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield,
Virginia  22161.

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                              CONTENTS
    I  Summary  	     1

   II  Introduction   	   3

 III  General Approach to Utilizing Epidemiological Studies
      to Predict Lifetime Probability of Cancer Deaths Due
      to Benzene	   4

      A.  Mathematical Model„Employed 	   4

      B.  Estimation of Lifetime Probability of Death Due to
          Various Forms of Leukemia for a Member of the U.S.
          Population  	   6

 IV   Epidemiological Studies Utilized  	   7

      A.  Infante (1977)	   3

      B.  Askoy (1974, 1976, 1977)  ... 	  13

      C.  Ott, et al. (1977)	17

  V   Estimation of Expected Number of Leukemia Deaths Due
      to Environmental Exposure to Benzene   	  21
 VI
Bibliography  	   30
VII   APPENDIX - Mutagenic Risks  of Benzene Exposure
                                                       31

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                            TABLES
1.


2.



3.



4.


5.




6.
Data Utilized to Estimate Lifetime Probability of
Death Due to Various Forms of Leukemia 	
  24
Lifetime Probability of Death in U.S. Population
Due to Leukemia Type Upon Which Relative Risk in
Each of the Epidemiological Studies is Based .  .

Summary of Data Used to Estimate Lifetime
Probability of a Leukemia Death Per ppm Benzene
Lifetime Exposure  	
.  25
  26
Source Specific Benzene Caused Leukemia Deaths/Year
Based on Table 1-1 of SRI Benzene Exposure Document.

Total Exposure of People Residing in Various
Locations, and Resulting Estimated Benzene Caused
Leukemia Deaths/Year - Based on Table 1-2 of SRI
Benzene Exposure Document   .... 	  .
.  27
Confidence Limits on Total Benzene Caused Leukemia
Deaths/Year  (Assumes "One-Hit" Model is the True
Dose Response Relationship)   	
  27
                                                           29
                                 IV

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    CARCINOGEN ASSESSMENT GROUP'S FINAL REPORT ON POPULATION RISK
                 TO AMBIENT BENZENE EXPOSURES
I.  Summary
    There 1s substantial epidemiological  evidence  that
benzene is a human leukemogen.  However,  no validated  animal
model has yet been developed  for benzene  as a  carcinogen.
There are several large series of case reports  indicating  a
high risk of leukemia in individuals  who  developed aplastic
anemia consequent to benzene  exposure.   In addition  there
are a number of  epidemiological  studies  in the rubber,
chemical and shoe industries  that demonstrate  an  excess  risk
of leukemia associated  with  benzene  exposure.
    Three of these epidemiological studies provide enough.
information about exposure  to benzene and the  occurrence of
leukemia to allow us to make  crude quantitative estimates  of
the leukemia risk associated with  current general  population
exposures to benzene in the  United States.  .These studies
were conducted  by Infante  et al,  (1977), Ott,  et al ,, (1977)
and  Askoy et al.,. (1977,  1976, 1974).       ".
     The  Infante study,  which showed  an excess  incidence of
leukemia,  is not yet completely analyzed by  the au.thors.
Hence,  some assumptions made about the average duration and
magnitude  of exposures  are necessary.    The Ott study
 indicated a marginal  excess myelogenous leukemia risk with

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relatively well-documented exposures.   The Askoy  studies
indicated a marked increase in non-lymphatic leukemia to
individuals using benzene based adhesives  in small  shoe
making shops, however, the exposure data in this situation
was difficult t6 evaluate.
    A linear non-threshold model was used to estimate the
leukemia risk to the low average levels of about one part
per billion to which the general population is exposed.  The
slope parameter of this model was taken as the geometric
mean of the slope parameter estimates obtained from the
three epidemiological studies.  Using this extrapolation
model, we  estimated, that the  number of cases of leukemia per
year in the  general population  clue to ambient atmospheric
benzene  is about  90 with  a 952  confidence  interval  from  34
to 235 assuming  a precision  of  within two  fold in the
exposure  estimate.  This  is  from  .23% to  1.62% of the  total
leukemia  deaths  in the  United States based  upon  1973  vital
 statistics.                     .
      The purpose of this  calculation is to  obtain a rough
 estimate of  the carcinogenic hazard to  benzene  in the entire
 United States population.  To do  this  lifetime  averages  of
 benzene  exposure were estimated and these were  combined  with
 the non-threshold linear model  of risk  as a function  of
 lifetime average exposure.  In this report no attempt has
 been made to estimate the' risks to selected sub-populations
 who may have greater or less than average exposure  or
 sensitivity to benzene although it is  certain that  such
 groups exist.
                            -2-

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II.  Introduction
    The Carcinogen Assessment Group (CAG)  has been  asked by
the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) to
estimate the carcinogenic risk to the United States
population of ambien.t benzene concentrations.  This type of
information is useful  in judging the overall contribution of
benzene emissions to the national rates of cancer mortality,
and will be used by OAQPS in the decision  whether to
regulate benzene.
    As the basis for this estimation, the  CAG is using three
epidemiological studies that show a relationship between
excess mortality due to leukemia and benzene'-exposure.  Each
of these studies have strengths and weaknesses that will be
discussed, but taken together they represent convincing
evidence that benzene is a -human carcinogen.
    To date, no clear evidence exists implicating benzene as
a  carcinogen from animal experiments.  A study is in
progress at New York University that appears to suggest that
inhaled benzene is causing  leukemia in rats.  At the present
time  it is felt that it would be premature  to base a risk
extrapolation on  this preliminary data.  However, at the
completion of this study the CAG will update the present
risk  analysis to  take account of this new information.
                           -3-

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 III.  General Approach to Utilizing Epidemiologfcal  Studies
       to Predict Lifetime Probability'of Cancer  Deaths Due
       to Benzene
     As was noted in the benzene health document (Goldstein,
 et al., 1977), very little information exists that can be
 utilized to obtain a dose response relationship between
 benzene and leukemia in humans or animals.
     However, if a number of simplifying assumptions  are
 made, it is possible to construct crude dose response models
                                    *
 whose parameters can be estimated using vital statistics,
 epidemiological studies, historical workplace benzene
".standards and-monitoring data, and a recent environmental
 benzene exposure study (.Mara and Lee, 1978).
     A-  Mathematical Model Employed
         We assume that for low exposures the lifetime
 probability of death from leukemia may be represented by the
 linear equation
               P * A+Bx
 where A is the rate in the absence of benzene- exposure and x
 is the average lifetime exposure to atmospheric benzene
 expressed in ppm.  The term Bis the change in the leukemia
 rate for each Increase of one ppm of benzene in the  air.
                            -4-

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    If we make the assumption that, "R", the relative risk
of leukemia for benzene exposed workers compared to the
genera] population Is independent of the length or age of
exposure but depends only upon the total exposure, it
follows that
             R s   £2 -A * B {XT -±-£21
                  P1  A + Bxi
              Rpl  - A + B (xi +  x2)
     Or
               P!  »  A  +  Bxj
     so  that    B = Pi(R-l)/x2
     where:     xj.  =  ambient  level  exposure  to benzene
               xe «•  industrial level exposure to benzene
               P! *  the  lifetime probability of dying of
                      leukemia with no or negligible benzene
                      exposure
To use this model  estimates of R and x2 must be obtained
from the epidemiological studies.  The exposure values Xl
are derived in the exposure study conducted by  SRI dated May
1978 and will be discussed where they are utilized.
    The estimate of  the lifetime probability of death due to
different types of leukemia, Plf is discussed in  detail  in
the next section.
                          -5-

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    B.   Estimation of Lifetime Probability  of Death  Due  to
        Various Forms of Leukemia for a Member of the U.S.
        Population
    The data utilized to estimate the lifetime probability
of death due to various forms of leukemia is shown in Table
1, which was taken from "Vital Statistics of the United
States 1973 Volume II - Mortality Part A."   The second and
third columns (total deaths and total death rate in 1973)
were taken from page 1-184 and 1-8, respectively and
uti.lized to derive column four, total U.S. population in
each of the age classes.
    The total number of deaths in 1973 due to each of the
types of leukemia listed by the 8th ICD code
         204 - lymphatic
         205 - rayeloid
         206 - monocytic
         207 - other and unspecified
are shown  in columns five through eight.
    The age specific death rates for each type of leukemia
are estimated by  dividing the  total  number of deaths due to
that type  by the  total  number  of people in that age class.
                        -6-

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    In the appendix of a 1978 CAG document on population
risk due to coke ovens a method referred to as the "constant
segmented model11 is derived that allows one to estimate the
lifetime probability of death due to a disease given the
age-specific incidence rates for the disease and all sources
of death.  This model  was employed-using the data in Table 1
to obtain the lifetime probabilities of leukemia that
approximate as closely as possible the type of leukemia that
the relative risk estimates were based upon in each
epidemiological study.  These lifetime probabilities are
shown in Table 2, and will be used subsequently to estimate
lifetime probabilities of leukemia death for each unit of
exposure to the general population for each of the
epidemiological studies.

IV.  Epidemiological Studies Utilized
    Each of the epidemiological studies is discussed in
general.  The relative risks are modified in each of the
studies to represent a most likely rather than a
conservative lower limit as usually is the case where the
primary aim of epidemiological  workers is to establish with
little doubt a "statistically significant" elevated relative
risk.  Estimates of the average lifetime exposure are also
made using as much data as is available.  This information
is then utilized employing the previously discussed
mathematical model to estimate the lifetime probability of
leukemia for each unit of exposure.
                            -7-

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    A.  Infante (1977)
        1.  Description of Infante Study (1977)
    In a retrospective study of mortality in a cohort of 74-8
white male workers in two Ohio plants manufacturing a
natural rubber cast film product, Infante et al., (1977)
observed a statistically significant higher rate of leukemia
than in either of two control groups.  The leukemia
mortality rate was 5.06 times higher than the general U.S.
white male population standardized for age and time period
of the cohort exposure, and 4.74 times higher than a cohort
of 1447 white males employed at an Ohio fibrous-glass
'construction products factory.  These results were based on
a 75% follow-up of the vital status of the workers.  A total
of 160 deaths were observed and of these there were 7
leukemia  deaths,  four of which were acute myelogenous, one
chronic myelogenous, and two monocytic leukemia.
    As with virtually all epidemiological studies, the
Infante study has various strengths and shortcomings.  Among
its strengths are; (1) the worker exposures  are  said to have
been almost exclusively restricted to benzene, since it is
used throughout the plant as the  principal  solvent in all
major processes;  (2) the individuals  in the  cohort all
worked before 1950 and were  followed  until  1975,  thus
allowing  long latency diseases to be  observed, and (3) acute

                          -8-

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myelogenous  leukemia was observed, which is the same cell
type of leukemia observed in other studies where workers
have had  known benzene exposures.  The disadvantages of
relying on this study for determining general  population
risks are:   (1) the authors essentially give no estimate of
worker exposures except to say that the levels were -less
than the  prevailing recommended occupational  limits at the
time various monitoring surveys were made;  (2) the members
of the cohort study actually worked at two  separate plants
(Akron and St. Mary's,  Ohio).   Air monitoring  information in
the .former plant is almost non-existent (Baier,  1977),  and
therefore the exposure  to half of the members  of the cohort
is almost completely unknown.   However, it  is  known (Young
1977) that the crude rates (leukemia cases/total  people in
the cohort) are similar in the two locations;  (3)  Warren et
al., (1977) claimed that over  400 workers known  to  be
exposed to low benzene  levels  were deliberately  excluded
from the cohort.   In spite of  these problems,  it is felt
that this study is  the  least flawed of the  three utilized.
    2.   Estimation  of the .Relative Risk
    In  an update,  published  as a  letter to  the editor in
Lancet  (Benzene and Leukemia.  October  14, 1977)  Infante et
al., note that:
                        -9-

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    (1)   Sakol  (1977)  has  supplied  additional
    Information  that  at  least  two more cases of leukemia
    known to  exist,  but  not reported  on  death
    certificates,  were probably  in  Infante's cohort;
   (2)   Due to  a more complete follow-up,  the  expected
    number of deaths  due to leukemia  in  their  cohort  was
    reduced from 1.38 to 1.25.
Using this supplemental  information,  the new relative risk
due to total  leukemia is estimated  to be

         R * (7+2)/1.25  = 7.20
    3.  Estimation of Average Occupational Exposure
    Information about the plant benzene levels is contained
in the Appendix to the testimony of Baler at the OSHA
benzene hearings (Baler, 1977).  From the opening of the
factory in 1940 until 1946, no; mom"toring records were
available.  Following the installation of new ventilation
equipment in 1946, a survey showed that levels in  "most
areas" in the  plant ranged from 0 to 15 ppm and that all
areas  had less than the maximum safe limit of 100 ppm which
prevailed at that time.  From  this information, one can
guess  that  the average exposure to all people in the plant
before 19.46 is probably not much more  than 100 ppm, and not
less  than 15 ppm.
                         -10-

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    Benzene levels were monitored after 1946 at various
plant locations but: they were all instantaneous samples and
no reliable information Is available about how many
man-hours were spent at those locations or whether
protective masks were worn.  These are case reports of
exposures to 1000 ppm for short time intervals.  Since the
average levels were generally close to the occupational
standard, we will  make the assumption that the  average
worker exposure was the same as the prevailing  recommended
occupational limits.   These are tabulated  below along with
the time weighted average for the 36 years of the  total
exposure period.
Time No. of Average Time-Weighted
Interval Cases Exposure (oom) Averaae ( nnm\
1940-46
1947
1948-56
1957-68
1969-75
(7)
(1)
(9)
(12)
(7)
100-15
50 39.9-23.3
35
25
10
                        -11-

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    The actual  levels to which the workers  were  exposed  was
a subject of heated debate at the OSHA benzene hearings.
The CAG would like to see a realistic estimate of the
population weighted average exposure and its uncertainty
limits.  The time-weighted averages for occupational
exposure must be converted to a continuous exposure lifetime
basis.   It will be assumed that  the maximum likely lifetime
exposure would result if  a worker entered the factory in
 1940  and was exposed  for  35 years to  the occupational limit
 of benzene.  This  exposure would  result in  a time-weighted
 average of 40.36  ppm for  35  years.   The least likely
 exposure is assumed  to   occur if a  worker .started  in  1950
 and was exposed to the  occupational  limit,  which results  in
 a time-weighted average of 23.7  ppm for 25  years.    The
 equivalent continuous lifetime exposures  corresponding  to
 these work place exposure estimates are:

 High estimate:  40.36 x  240 x 1. x 35 = 4.4ppm
 Low  estimate:    23.7 x  240 x 1 x 25 - l.Sppm
                          365   3   70
  The geometric  mean  of  the  high-low  exposures,
/4.4xl.8  = 2.81,  is  taken to  be  the  best estimate of the
  lifetime  average for  workers  in  the  cohort.
                           -12-

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         *•   Estimation of Lifetime Probability of Leukemia
              Per Unit of Exposure
    The change in the leukemia rate per lifetime average ppm
in the atmosphere is derived from the previously discussed
equation:
              B = P! (R-U/x2
              which gives us an estimate
              B = .006732 x (7.20-D/2.81  = .014854
    B.  Askoy (1974, 1976, 1977)
         1.  Description of Askoy Studies
    Askoy (1977, 1976, 1974)  has reported  his observations
of the occurrence of leukemia and aplastic anemia cases at
two medical institutions in Istanbul  over  a period from 1967
to 1975.  He has compared the types of leukemia seen  in shoe
workers, who work with benzene solvents in small
unventilated shops,  with the  types of  leukemia observed in
people with no known exposure to  benzene.   He has also
tabulated the exposure duration  of patients  with  different
types of leukemia.   He found  that in  shoe  workers there were
34 cases of leukemia observed in  the nine  years from  1967  to
1975.   Based on "official  records" which show that  in
Istanbul ..there are  28,500  workers  in the shoe,  slipper and
handbag industry,  he calculates  that the annual  incidence
                        -13-

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rate of leukemia 1s 13 per 100,000,  which is  significantly
higher than 6 per 100,000, the rate  in  the general
population.  The calculation is based on crude rates with no
age adjustment.
    He also found  that the types of leukemias occurring in
people exposed  to  benzene are different than for those with
no  known  exposure.   In a  sample of  50 non-exposed leukemia
patients,  approximately 50 percent  had chronic leukemia, but
in  40 benzene-exposed patients  only 5 percent  had chronic
leukemia.  Also, in  the exposed group preleukemia and  acute
 erythroleukemia accounted for 34  percent of  the  cases,
 whereas in the non-exposed group  only 6% of  the  cases  were
 of those types.
     The concentration of benzene  to which the workers were
 exposed was estimated only in terms of the maximum
 concentrations  existing  at the times when benzene was being;
 used  in  the shops.   At the OSHA benzene  hearings in 1977
 Dr.  Askoy  stated  that the concentrations outside working
 hours ranged  between 15  and  30 ppm and  reached  a maximum of
 between  150 and 210 ppm  when  adhesives  containing  benzene
 were being used.
                          -14-

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         2.  Estimation of Relative Risk.
    A total of 26 patients with leukemia were observed in
the 6 2/3 year period from 1966 to September 1973 in a group
of 28,500 Instanbul  shoe workers exposed chronically to
benzene.  This was felt to be an underestimate of the true
number of leukemia cases among the shoe workers during the
period with Askoy subsequently being aware of two additional
cases.  However, three of the twenty-eight total  cases were
lymphoblastic or lymphoid leukemia, not thought to be as-
sociated with benzene exposure.  Eliminating these three
cases, an estimate of the yearly incidence rate is
         I = (26+2-3) x IPS = 13.15 per 100,000 per year
              28,500 x 6..67        -
    The total incidence rate of leukemia in Turkey is
thought to be about 2,,5 to 3.0 per 100,000 Askoy (.1977).
However from Askoy*s non-exposed patient group we estimate
that 48% based on 24 out of 50 are non-lymphoblastic or
lymphoid leukemia.  In addition, the national rate which is
based on the total population was felt by Cooke (1954) to be
about twice that experienced for the relatively young group
of benzene-exposed shoe workers who had a average age at
diagnosis  of 34.2 years.  Using this information we estimate
that the yearly  incidence rate  of non-lymphoblastic or
lymphoid leukemia in the Turkish population of the same age
structure  as the benzene exposed shoe workers  is
                             -15-

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         I  3  (2.5+3.0)  x 24  x  1  -  .66  per  100,000
             	2        50    2
    An estimate of  the  relative  risk for benzene exposed
shoe workers  is thus
         R =  13.15  = 19.92
               .66
    3.  Estimation  of Lifetime Average Exposure
    It was noted that the benzene levels were 15 to 30 ppm
outside working hours and 150 to 210 ppm during working
hours when benzene was in use in the typical small shoe
manufacturing  shop.  We will assume that the average working
hour  exposure  to benzene was the geometric mean of the
midpoint of  the  two  intervals or
         X7  3  \H5 + 30) x  (150 + 210)  = 63.6 ppm
              sJ	2        ~~  2
         In addition  we  will assume:
          (1)   ft  ten  hour working  day
          (2)   A 300  day  working year
          (3)  An  average  age at  the  end  of the observation
               period of 50  years
          (4)  An a-verage of 9.7 years of  exposure;  this is
               the  average  length  of exposure for the
               leukemia cases in Askoy's series.
                        -16-

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These assumptions lead to a lifetime average exposure
estimate of
         X2 = 63.6 x (10) x (300) x (9.7) = 4.22 ppm
                      2?     JBT     BIT
         4.  Estimation of Lifetime Probability of Leukemia
             Per Unit of Exposure
    The change in the leukemia rate per lifetime average ppm
in the atmosphere is derived from the previously discussed
equation:
         B = Pi(R-l)/x2
which gives us an estimate
         B * .004517 x (19.92-1)74.22 - .020252
    C.  Ott, et al., (1977)
         1•  Description of Qtt Study
    The long-term mortality patterns and associated exposure
estimation of a cohort of 594 workers exposed to benzene
were reported by Ott, et al., (1977).  The workers were
employed in three production areas of the company, which had
been in operation for varying times since 1920.
    Each job category was assigned an average exposure range
as accurately as the historical  air monitoring  data
permitted.  The concentrations ranged from less than 2 ppm
(8-hour time weighted average)  to  greater than  25  ppm. ^The
analysis covered employees with known benzene exposure who

                         -17

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worked from January 1, 1940 through 1973.   A total  of 53
employees with known exposure to arsenicals, vinyl  chloride
and asbestos in addition to their benzene exposure was omit-
ted from the formal cohort of people exposed to benzene.
    The benzene exposure of each person was evaluated and
ex-pressed as the  product of parts per million times months
of exposure.  For  the 91 deceased  people with exposure to
benzene alone, 45% of them had  exposures between 0 and 499
ppm-months and 35% had  exposures greater than 1000 ppm-
months.   The  results  of the  analysis of mortality by cause
of death  showed  no statistically significant  excess  of
mortality compared to the  U.S.  white male  age-specific
 mortality rates.   Three cases  of  leukemia  were  observed
 where 0.8 cases  were  expected,  a  situation of borderline
 statistical  significance (p<0.047).  All  three were  my-
 elocytic leukemia, two of them acute,  which latter  is the
 type associated with benzene exposure of shoe workers
 (Askoy, 1976) and other occupations (Yigliani, 1976).
          2.  Estimation of Relative Risk
      In Ott's cohort 3  deaths due  to non-lymphocytic non-
 monocytic leukemia were observed  with only .8 expected.  An
 estimation of the relative risk of non-lymphocytic -
 monocytic leukemia is  thus
           R 3 3/.8 =  3.75
                            -18-

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         3.  Estimation of Lifetime Average Exposure
    Ott estimated the ppm-months of exposure of each
individual in his cohort from work history data and plant
hygiene benzene measurement surveys.  The most complete
presentation of this data is given in Ott1s (1977)  table 7
                  #
which is used to estimate the average level of exposure.
    It is assumed that the average exposure in each of the
exposure intervals is equal  to the midpoint of the  first two
intervals and is equal to the lower limit plus 1/2  of the
interval width for the open or third classification.  The
total average ppnfi-months is obtained by taking the  average
of the three classifications weighted by the expected value
of the number of deaths in each classification giving the
value
(250 x 65.1 + 750 x 16.2 + 1250 x 32.8)/{65.1  + 16.2 + 32.8}
= 608.46 ppm x months
The average lifetime exposure is obtained by using  the
following assumptions:
         (1)  An'eight hour working day
         (2)  A 240 day working year
         (3)  An average age at the end of the observation
              period of 65 years
which gives the lifetime estimate of
         (608.46) x (8 ) x (240) x (1 ) = .171  ppm
         (  12  )   (14)   (365)   (65)

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         4.   Estimation of Lifetime Probability  of  Leukemia
             Per Unit of Exposure
    The change in the leukemia rate per lifetime average ppm
in the atmosphere is derived from the previously discussed
equation:
         B * Pi(R-l)/X2
which gives us an estimate
         B » .002884 x  (3.75-U)/.17 = .04638
    D.  Summary of Results
    The total leukemic  response has been based on different
classifications of leukemia for the three studies.  A
summary of the type of  response utilized is given in Table
3.   It would have been  preferable  to have applied a uniform
method of classification  for  all the studies.   However, due
to  the lack  of  specific detail  in  the  presented  papers  this
was not  possible.
     Even  with this  added source of variability  the  resulting
slope estimates  B,  which have the  physical  meaning  of the
total probability  of deaths due to 1  ppm  of benzene in  the
air breathed over  an individual  lifetime,  were  remarkably
 consistent between studies.  The geometric  mean of the  three
 estimates ic
         . B =3J.014854x.020252x»046380 = .024074
                         -20-

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The estimated log mean Is
         log-jQB = -1.618453, with the estimated variance
of this mean being    0"log B = .021785
V.  Estimation of Expected Number of Leukemia Deaths Due to
    Environmental Exposure to Benzene
    The SRI in their exposure document expressed exposure to
the U.S.' population in two ways.
    The first method assumed a static population living
around the point sources and gave total ppb-person years for
each of the point source classifications in Table 1-1.
    If exposure units fn 106 ppb-person years are denoted
as D, the expected number of leukemia deaths per year may be
estimated approximately by the relationship
         ND =» .024074 x 0x103/70.96 = .3392620
where .024074 is the geometric mean of the slope parameter
taken from the three studies, and 70.96 is the average
expected life of a randomly drawn person living in the
United States based on 1973 vital statistics.
    Using Table I-rl and the above equation the number of
leukemia deaths per year are estimated for the various point
sources .and are shown in Table 4.
                         -21-

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    The second method employed to estimate exposure did not
make the over-simplified assumption that the human
population was static.  Instead an attempt was made to
follow a typical individual through a typical day in order
to obtain his average exposure.  The exposure estimates
derived on this basis are  shown  in Table 1-2 of the SRI
document and were utilized in conjunction with the above
equation to derive the estimated  number of leukemia deaths
per year shown  in Table 5.
    We note that approximately a  total of 90 cases of
leukemia per year could be expected due to benzene exposure.
In  a  recent CAG document on ROM's, a method  was developed  to
obtain confidence intervals for  estimates based upon  the
assumptions that each .epidemic!ogical  study  gave  an unbiased
estimate of the true  slope parameter and  the estimates  were
distributed  log normally.  Adding the  additional  assumption
that  the  exposure estimates are  also log-normally
distributed  we derive the  relationship that the  35%
confidence  interval  for  the log  of the number of  leukemia
 deaths per  year is        ^	
          1.953289  +  F.083689 +  Iog2u
                        -22-

-------
where we are 95% confident that the true exposure  is  between
(u-1) x 100% and (u-l)-l x 100% of the exposure estimate.
    The confidence limits derived from this  relationship  for
various assumed values of u are shown in Table.6.
                        -23-

-------
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                               I    I   I   I
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                                                      -24-

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             TABLE  2  -  Lifetime  Probability of Death in. U.S.
                        Population  Due  to  Leukemia Type Upon
                        VThich  Relative  Risk in Each of the
                        Epidemiclogical Studies is Based.
Epidemiological
(	Study	

Infante

Ott

As key
JCD Codes
Utilized

204-207

   205

2.0 5-10 7
Type of
Leukemia

Total Leukemia

Myelogenous

Non-Lymphatic
Lifetime Probability
  of Death Due to
  Type of Leukemia

     .006732

     .002884

     .004517
                                 -25-

-------
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       0)

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                                                             -26-

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           TABLE 4  -  Source  Specific "Benzene  Caused Leukemia
                    •  Deaths/Year Based on Table 1-1 of SRI Benzene
                                    Exposure Document9
tource  o£
 cposure

 leraical
 inufacturing

Iqke Ovens

?etroleum
lefineries

toitoiaobile
Emissions

Gasoline  Ser-
vice Stations

Self Service
Gasoline
  A  Exposure  in
10°	10
                '      Expected Number of Benzene Cau.
x pp  -Person Years        Leukemia Deaths/Year
      8.5

       .2

      2.5



   150.0


     19-. 0
           ' TOTAL
                                          2.33

                                            .07

                                            .85



                                         5.0.89



                                          6.44


                                            -54


                                         61.67
     Mara,  Susan J. and Shonh S. Lee.  Assessment of-Human Exposures to Atmospheric
     Benzene.  SRI International for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research
     Triangle Park, NC.  Publication No. EPA-450/3-78-031.  June 1978.
                                      . -27-

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                TABLE  5 - Total  Exposure of  People Residing in Various
                           Locations, and Resulting Estimated Benzene-
                           Caused Leukemia  Deaths/Year  -  Based on
                           Table   1-2 of SRI Benzene Exposure Document9
Vicinity of Residence


Chemical Manufacturing

Coke  Ovens
 *                     »

Petroleum Refineries

Urban Areas

                TOTAL
Exposure  in .
106ppb-Person
    Years
      10.0

        .2

       4.5

     250.0

     264.7
Expected Number of
Benzene-Caused
Leukemia Deaths/Year
      3.39

       .07

      1.53

     84.80

     89.30
      aMara, Susan J. and Shonh S. Lee.  Assessment of Human Exposures to Atmospheric
       Benzene.  SRI International for U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Research
       Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/3-78-031.


                                       -28-

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               TABLE 6 - Confidence Limits-on Total Benzene
                         Caused Leukemia Deaths Per Year
                         (Assumes "One-Hit" Model is  the True
                         Dose Response Relationship)
Level of Precision
Assumed for Exposure
Estimate
C.U-1) x 100%	
95% Confidence Limits
Lower          Upper
Limit          Limit
   0%:

  10%

  50%

 100%

1000%
                                        46.1  .

                                        45.8

                                        41.2

                                        34.3

                                         7.5
                174.8

                176.0

                195.9

                254.9

               1081.7
*Assumes no error in exposure estimate.
                                  -29-

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                        Bib!iography

                   Cancer Risk of Benzene
 Askoy,  M.  (1977)  "Testimony of Mazaffer Askoy, M.D. to
 Occupational  Safety  and  Health Administration, U.S.
 Department of Labor," July 13, 1977, 13 pp.

 Askoy,  M.  (1976)  "Types  Leukemia  In  Chronic  Benzene
"Poisoning.  A Study  in Thirty-Four Parts," Acta  Haemat,
 5_i,  65-72.

 Askoy,  M., Erdem, S., and  Oincol, G.  (1974)  "Leukemia  in
 Shoe-Workers Exposed Chronically  to  Benzene,   Blood, 44  (6),
 837-841. '

 Askoy.  M., Erden, S., Dincol,  K., Kepyuksel,  T., and Dincol,
 G. (1974)  "Chronic Exposure  to Benzene as a  possible
 Contributary Etiologic  Factor  in  Hodgkin's  Disease,  Blut,
 28_,  293_-29J3.

 Baler,  E.J. "Statement  of the  National Institutes of
 Occupational Safety and  Health,"  Exhibit 84A, OSHA Benzene
 Hearings,  July 19-Aug 10,  1977.

 Cooke,  J.V.  (1954) "The Occurrence  of Leukemia," Blood 9,
 340.

 Goldstein, B.D., Snyder, C.A., Snyder, R.,  and R. and  S. R.
 Wolman, "Review  of Benzene Toxicity," Prepared for EPA,
 August 18, 1977.

 Infante,  P.F., Rinsky,  R.A., Wagoner, J.K., and Young, R.J.
 (1977)  "Benzene  and Leukaemia (Letter to the Editor),
 Lancet. 867-869, October 22, 1977.

 Infante,  P.F., Rinsky,  R.A., Wagoner, J.K., and Young, R.J.
 (1977) "Leukemia in Benzene Workers,'  " Lancet,  76-78,  July
 9,  1977.

 Ott, M.G.,  Townsend, J.C., Fishback,  W.A., and  Langer, R.A.
 (1977) "Mortality Among Individuals Occupationally Exposed
 to  Benzene," Exhibit 154, OSHA Benzene Hearings, July 9-
 August 10,  1977.

 Sakol, M.J.  (1977)  "Testimony of Marvin  J.  Sakol, M.D.,  to
 Occupational Safety and Health Administration,  U.S.
 Department of Labor".
                          -30-

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                    VII.  APPENDIX
            Mutagenlc Risks of Benzene Exposure

 Summary
      In  addition to the  risk from.leukemia, benzene exposure
 is also  likely  to  induce  inherited  mutations.  The magnitude
 of this  risk  can not be  estimated because of the uncertain
 quantitative  relationship between heritable mutations and
 chromosome  aberrations which have been consistently observed
 in exposed  workers.

 Review of  Experimental  Results
     Benzene  was found to be non-mutagenic in the Ames'  test
 for point rautational  effects (Simmon  et  al.,  1977;  Shahin,
 1977; and Lyon,  1975).  However,  it is possible  that a human
 metabolic activation  enzyme  system  or  a  mammalian body fluid
 activation  system  would cause  it  to be mutagenic.
     Somatic chromosomal   aberrations  have  been demonstrated
 in animals  and humans.  In rabbits,  Kiss! ing  and  Speck,  1971
 reported the induction of cytogenetic  damage  vn vivo  by
 subcutaneous injection of 0,2  ng/kg day  benzene.   The
 frequency of metaphase spreads showing aberrations  (mostly
 gaps and breaks) increased from 5.9% to  57.8% after an
 average exposure interval  of 18 weeks.   Two months  after
 discontinuance of  the benzene  treatment, cytogenetic damage
was  still observed.
                        -31-

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Dobrokhotov (1972) exposed rats to 0.2 g/kg day benzene and
0.8 g/kg day toluene, and found similar rates of chromosomal
aberrations in the two chemicals given separately, and an
additive effect when given together.  Chromatic deletions in
metaphase chromosomes of bone-marrow cells have been found
in rats given single doses of benzene subcutaneously at 2
ml/kg (Philip and Jensen, 1970). Deletions have also been
observed in rats given benzene at Ig/kg day, subcutaneously,
for 12 days.
    A dominant lethal and j_n vivo cytogenetics  combined
test has been performed with rats dosed intraperitoneally
with 0.5 ml/kg benzene (Lyon; 1975). . No dominant lethality
was found but increases were found  in chromatic and
chromosomal aberrations.  Lyon (1975) also found increased
micronuclei counts  6  hours after  the  final dosing of rats at
0.05 and 0.25 ml/kg/day after two days of dosing
intraperitoneally.
    In patients with  benzene-induced  aplastic  anemia,
lymphocyte  chromosome damage has  been found  (Pollini and
Colombi, 1964).   Polini et a!.,  (1964) later  found  a 70%
incidence  of  heteroploid  chromosomal  patterns  in  the blood
lymphocytes and bone  marrow parenchyma cells  of each of  four
subjects with benzene-induced  blood dyscrasias.   Similar
patient  studies of  benzene exposed  individuals  with

                         -32-

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 persistent chromosomal  alterations  associated with blood
 dyscrasias have  also  been  reported  by others (Forni and
 Moreo,  1967,  1969;  Hartwich  et  al., 1969; Khan and Khan,
 1973; Sellzel  and Kelemen, 1971;  Forni et aU, (1971); Tough
 and  Court  Brown, 1965}.
     Vigiliani  and Forni  (1969)  found a significant increase
 of chromosomal aberrations in pheripheral lymphocytes of
 workers exposed  to  benzene,  but not in those exposed to
 xylene  and toluene.   Some  of these  aberrations persisted for
 several years  after recovery from benzene hemopathy.  They
 suggested  that toxicity  to the bone marrow might result in
 cells with  an  abnormal number of chromosomes and that
 proliferation  of these cells could then give rise to an
 advantaged  leukemic clone.  Forni  et aK, (1971)  examined
 chromosomal aberrations  in 34 workers in  a rotogravure plant
 and.compared these to 24 matched controls, and  found a
 significantly  higher number of both stable and  unstable
 aberrations in 10 benzene-exposed  workers but a  number
 comparable  to controls in all of the 24 toluene-exposed
 workers.
    A recent report (Kilian and  Daniels,  1978) on.52 workers
 exposed to  benzene  for one month to  26  years (mean  of 56.6
months)  found chromosomal aberrations  (chromosome  breaks,
dicentric  chromosomes, trans!ocations  and  exchange  figures)
                         -33-

-------
in peripheral lymphocytes at 2-3 times the rates found in
controls.  In this study, the 8 hour average time-weighted
benzene exposure was 2-3 ppm, the average concentration
determined by 15 minute sampling was 25 ppm and the peak
concentration was 50 ppm.
    The same laboratory reported on the monitoring of 471
peripheral lymphocyte cultures from 290 Texas Division
benzene workers between 1965 and 1978 {Benge et a!.,.1978).
A group of 972  "preemployment examinees" who were judged, on
the basis of the history taken at the time, to have had
negligible exposure to known chromosome-breaking  agents were
used as controls.  Rates of chromosomal abnormalities were
found  not to be increased  in the exposed group over the
control group.  The time-weighted average benzene
concentrations  were estimated  to have  been  below  50 ppm
prior  to  1972 and well below 10 ppm from 1973  to  the  present
time.
     A  report by Picciano  (1978) which  is a  further  analysis
of  the Kilian and Daniel  (1978) and Benge  (1978)  study
comparing the information  on benzene  exposed  individuals  to
 a 44-person  group  seen  for preemployment  examination.
 Workers exposed to  three  different levels  of  benzene  at less
 than 10 ppm  for several  years  showed  a dose response
 relationship.   The  types of aberrations  detected  are  similar
 to those reported for higher benzene  exposures by (Tough et
                         -34-

-------
al., 1970).  The workers were monitored for urinary
excretion of phenol which is a primary metabolite of
benzene.  All workers had no detectable phenol which
indicated no recent exposure to benzene.  Exposures for the
dose-response relationship were 0, less than 1, 1-2.5 and
greater than 2.5 ppm.
    Fredga et al., (1978) performed a study on 65 workers,
occupationally handling motor fuels.  A moderate, but
statistically significant, increase in frequency of chro-
mosome aberrations was found in road tanker drivers and
industrial workers, but not in ship tanker crews and gaso-
line station staff.  The estimated exposure dose was 60 ppm
or less.  The dose absorbed will be reported in a subsequent
study.

Conclusions
     Ample evidence exists that benzene causes chromosomal
aberrations in animals and humans exposed to benzene.   This
evidence was reviewed above.  However, since this is a
somatic cell effect as opposed to a germinal  cell  effect it
is difficult to estimate the heritable risk to future
generations from such evidence.   These chromosomal  aber-
rations probably involve breaks  in DNA and therefore are
heritable" events if they occur in the  germinal  cells,
although the experiments to prove that point have not  been
decisive.
                        -35-

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    It is generally recognized that rings, dicentrics,
translocatlons and exchange figures are heritable, but
chromosome breaks could be caused from toxicity of somatic
cells and therefore may not be heritable.  The former
lesions should be used as indicators that genetic damage to
future generations may have occurred.  At the current time
quantitative estimates of heritable genetic damage due  to
benzene cannot be made from data on the frequency of somatic
mutations, although this damage may be occurring at
concentrations as low as 1 ppm in air.
                          -36-

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                        Bibliography

                   Mutagenicity:   Benzene

Benge, M.C., J.R. Venable, D.J. Picciano and D.J..Killian
(1977) "Cytogenetic study of 290  workers exposed to
benzene."  Report Dow Chemical  U.S.A. 1977.

Dobrokhotov, V.B. (1972) "The mutagenic influence of benzene
and toluene under experimental  conditions," Gig. Sanit;
37:36-39.

Forni, A., and L. Moreo (1967)  "Cytogenetic studies in a
case of benzene leukaemia," Eur.  Jour. Cancer, 3:251-255.

Forni, A., and L. Moreo. 1969.  "Chromosome studies in a  case
of benzene-induced erythroleukaemia."  Cancer, 3:251-255.

Forni, A., et al. (1971a) "Chromosome studies in workers
exposed to benzene or toluene or  both," Arch. Environ.
Health, 22:373-378.

Forni, A., et al. (1971b) "Chromosome changes and their
evolution in subjects with past exposure to benzene," Arch.
Environ. Health, 23:385-391.

Fredga, K., Reitalu, J. and Berlin, M. Chromosome studies in
workers exposed to benzene.  Report #771018 of the Institute
of Genetics, Univ. of Lund and Department of Env. Health,
University of Lund, Sweden.

Haberlandt, W., and B. Mente 1971 "Deviation on number and
structure of chromosomes in industrial workers exposed  to
benzene," Zbl.  Arfaeitsmed, 21:338-341.

Hartwich, G., and G. Schwanitz (1972)
"Chromosomenuntersuchungen nach chronischer
Benzol-Exposition." Dtsch. Med. Wschr. 97:45-49.

Hartwich, G., et al. (1969) "Chromsome anomalies in a case
of benzene leukemia." Ger. Med. Monthly, 14:449-450.

Khan,  H., and M. H. Khan (1973) "Cytogenetic studies
following chronic exposure to benzene," Arch. Toxikol.,
31:39-49.                                       "™

Kilian, D. J., and R. C. Daniel (1978)  "A Cytogenetic study
of workers exposed to benzene in  the Texas Division of Dow
Chemical, U.S.A.," Feb. 27, 1978, Dow Chemical, Freeport,
Texas.

Kiss!ing, M., and B. Speck (1971) "Chromosomal aberrations
in experimental benzene intoxication,"  Helv. Med. Acta,
36:59-66.
                         -37-

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Koizumi, A., et al.  (1974) "Cytokinetic and cytogenetic
changes in cultured  human leucocytes and HeLa cells  induced
by benzene," Ind. Health (Japan),  12:23-29.

Ltapkalo, A.A. (1973) "Genetic activity of benzene and
toluene," Gig Tr. Prof.  Zabol„,  17:24-28.

Lyon, J.P. (1975) "Mutagenicity  Studies with Benzene," Ph.D.
Thesis, University of California

Philip, P., and M.K. Jensen. (1970) "Benzene-induced
chromosome abnormalities in rat  bone marrow cells,"   Acta.
Pathol. Microbiol. Scand. Sect.  A., 78:489-490.

Picciano, D. (1978)  Unpublished  report.

Pollini, G., and  R.  Colombi (1964) "Lymphocyte chromosome
damage in benzene blood dyscrasia," Me_d. Lav. 55:641-654.

Pollini, G., et al.  (1964) "Relationship between chromosomal
alterations and severity of benzol blood dyscrasia," Med.
Lav. 55:735-751.2

Sellyei, M., and  E.  Kelemen (1971) Chromosome study  in a
case if granulocytic leukemia with "Pelgerisation" 7 years
after benzene pancytopenia.  Eur.  Jour. Cancer, 7:83-85.

Shahin, M.M. (1977)   Unpublished results.. The University of
Alberta, Canada.  Cited in Mutation Research 47:75-97
(1978).

Simmon, V.F., et  al. (1977) "Mutagenic activity of chemicals
identified  in drinking water."  Second International Conf.
on Environmental  Mutagens, Edinburgh, Scotland, July 1977.

Tough,  I.M., and  W.M. Court Brown  (1965). "Chromosome
aberrations and exposure  to ambient benzene, "Lancet, 1:684.

Tough,  I.M., et  al.  (1970)  "Chromosome studies in workers
exposed to  atmospheric benzene.   The possible influence of
age," Eur.  Jour.  Cancer,  6:49-55.

Yigliani,  E.G.,  and A. Forni. 1969.  Benzene, chromosome
changes and leukemia," Jour.  Occup. Med.,  11:148-149.

Yigliani,  E.G.,  and A. Forni  (1976)  "Benzene and  leukemia "
Environ. Res., 11:122-127.

Vigliani,  E.G., and G. Sanita (1964) "Benzene and leukemia."
N.E. Jour.  Med.,  271:872-876.
                        -38-

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Warren, E.W., VanVoorhee,  R.F., and Sampson, A.F., "Post.
Hearing Brief of API, NPRA, and Individual Member Companies
Regarding the Proposed Revised Permanent Standards for
Occuopation Exposure to Benzene," OSHA Docket Mo. H-059
September 22, 1977.

Young-, R.J. National Institute of Occupational Safety and
Health, Personal Communication, October, 1977.
                          -39-

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                                  TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                           (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing}
 HfrPORTNO.
     EPA-450/5-80-004
'TITLE AND SUBTITLE
    "Carcinogen Assessment  Group's Final Report on
     Population Risk  to  Ambient Benzene Exposures"
                                                           5. REPORT DATE
 AUTHOB(S)
                                                           8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
   Roy E. Albert
'PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
   U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency
   Office of  Research  and Development
   401 M Street,  S.W.
   Washington,  D.C.   20460
                     January 1979
            6. PFiRFOHMING ORGANIZATION CODE
                                                           10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
            11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
2. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
   Environmental  Protection Agency
   Office  of Air  Quality Planning and  Standards
      and  Office  of Research and Development
   Research  Triangle Pa r k, N.C.  27713	
                                                            13. TYPE OF
                         Final
            14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE

                  EPA 200/04
s.SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES   jhis report supercedes  all  findings and conclusions  in the
   September 1978 report entitled  "Carcinogen Assessment Group's  Final  Report on
   Population Risk to Ambient Benzene  Exposures."	
6. ABSTRACT
         This  report is one of three  reports which were prepared  by  E.P.A.  to determine
   what  regulatory action should  be  taken by E.P.A. to control sources  of atmospheric
   emissions  of benzene.  This  report  estimates from three epidemiological  studies the
   leukemia risk associated with  current general population exposures  to benzene in
   the United States.  These studies were conducted by Infante,  et  al., (1977),
   Ott et  al., (1977), and Askoy  et  al., (1977, 1976, 1974).  The original  report has
   received extensive review by the  interested public and E.P.A.'s  Science Advisory^
   Board.   All comments received  on  this first report were reviewed and considered in
   preparation of this report.
                                KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
    Benzene
    Air pollution
    Populations
    Health effects
    Risk
                                               ).IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                                                                             COSATI Held/Group
                                                                                 13B
13. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT


    Unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS ,
  Unclassified
                                                                 Report}
20»SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
  Unclassified
                           22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)

-------