xvEPA
               United States         Office of Air Quality          EPA-453/R-93-055
               Environmental Protection   Planning and Standards        May 1994
               Agency            Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
Deposition of Air Pollutants
to the Great Waters
First Report to Congress
                                               Printed on Recycled Paper

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Cover photo credits:
  J. Scott Taylor,
  Duke University Marine Lab
  International Joint
  Commission
International Joint Commission
                                            James F. Parnell
                                   Jamey Tidwell,
                                   Texas Sea Grant
                      International Joint Commission
  International Joint Commission
                                              University
                                              of Michigan
                                University of Michigan

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"Copies of the firstReport to Congress, Deposition of Air Pollutants to the
 Great Waters, can be obtained, as supplies permit, from the Library Services
 Offices (MD-35), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
 Park, North Carolina 27711, or, for a nominal'fee, from the National
 Technical Information Service', 528S Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia
 22161, phone: 1-800-553-NTIS or 703-487-4650.
• Information in' this Report to Congress has been derived mainly from three
 detailed background reports prepared by committees of leading independent
 scientists. These committees were convened by EPA to summarize the
 current state of scientific knowledge on atmospheric deposition "to'the Great
 Waters. Unless otherwise referenced, all scientific information in this report
 is drawn from the three technical contractor reports:

    1. Relative Atmospheric Loadings of Toxic Contaminants and Nitrogen
    •  to the Great Waters, 1993. Describes the mass balance approach for
      determining inputs into surface  water. Discusses waterbody-speeific
      mass balance calculations for several pollutants.

    2. Identification of Sources Contributing to the Contamination of the
      Great Waters by Toxic Compounds. 1993. Describes techniques for
      source identification. Discusses the importance of local, regional,
      and distanlsourees for atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters.

    3. Exposure, and Effects of Airborne Contamination. 1992. Provides a
      detailed summary, of the ecological and human health effects of
    ,  selected air pollutants of concern for deposition to the Great Waters.

 Copies of these reports can be obtained by writing:
    Office of Air Quality Planning and  Standards
    Pollutant Assessment Branch (MD-13)
    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
    Research  Triangle Park, NC  27711
    Attention: Great Waters Documents

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Contents
                                  Executive Summary
                                             IX
                                  1. Introduction                                              1
                                       Section 112(m) of the Clean Air Act, as Amended in 1990             4
                                       Report Objectives                                            8
                                       Report Preparation                                           8

                                  2. Overview of the Great Waters Program              11
                                  3. Answering the Scientific Questions
                                     of Section 112(m)                                       17
                                       Effects: What Human Health and Environmental Effects Are
                                          Associated with Exposure to Great Waters Pollutants of Concern?   18
                                       Relative Loading: What Is the Relative Importance
                                          of Atmospheric Deposition in Loadings to the Great Waters?      45
                                       Sources:  What Sources Are Significant Contributors
                                          to Atmospheric Loadings to the Great Waters?                 56
                                  4. Conclusions and Recommendations
                                       Conclusions
                                       Recommendations and Actions
                                  5. References
                                  Appendices
                                       Appendix A:
Lists of Bioaccumulative Chemicals of Concern and
Potential Bioaccumulative Chemicals of Concern
                                       Appendix B:  Comparison of Great Lakes Sampling Data
                                                   to Various Water Quality Benchmarks
                                       Appendix C:  Historical EPA Regulations
                                       Appendix D:  Summary of Clean Air Act Section 112 Activities
                                       Appendix E:  Progress Under Section 112(m)
                                       Appendix F:  Summary of MACT Source Categories Potentially
                                                   Emitting Great Waters Pollutants of Concern
                                       Appendix G:  Preliminary Summary of Research Needs
                                                   and Program Planning
                                             67
                                             68
                                             73
                                             83
A-l

B-l
C-l
D-l
E-l

F-l

G-l

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 List of Figures
                                       1.  Locations of designated Great Waters                                5
                                       2.  How does atmospheric deposition occur?                            12
                                       3.  Significant milestones in understanding atmospheric deposition
                                          of toxic air pollutants to aquatic ecosystems                         13
                                       4.  Distribution of pollutants within a waterbody                       21
                                       5.  Simplified overview of a food web in the Great Lakes                 22
                                       6.  The eutrophication process                                       32
                                       7.  Biomagnification of PCBs in the Lake Ontario food web, 1982          40
                                       8.  U.S. daily intakes of methylmercury versus World Health
                                          Organization "Safe Levels"                                       41
                                       9.  Mass balance model for lakes and estuaries                         45
                                      10.  Mass balance of PCBs in Lake Superior                            49
                                      11.  Mercury in Little Rock Lake, WI                                  52
                                      12.  Annual nitrogen loadings to Delaware Bay                          53
                                      13.  Cadmium loadings to Delaware Bay                               53
                                      14.  Atmospheric loading of PCBs to the Great Lakes                     54
                                      15.  Examples of sources                                             56
                                      16.  Pollutants of concern  emitted from selected sources                   58
                                      17.  Sources of PAH emissions in eastern North America, 1992             62
                                      18.  Anthropogenic sources of nitrogen oxide emissions in 1990             63
iv

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List of Tables
                                      1.  Major Activities and Questions Addressed by the Great Waters Program 14
                                      2.  Selected Pollutants of Concern in the Great Waters                  19
                                      3.  Current Great Lakes Fish Consumption Advisories                  26
                                      4.  Current Fishing Advisories in Selected Great Waters                 27
                                      5.  Potential Human Health Effects Associated with Pollutants
                                         of Concern                                                     33
                                      6.  Explanation of Atmospheric Deposition Terms                       47
                                      7.  Contribution of Atmospheric Deposition to Total Loadings
                                         of Pollutants of Concern for Selected Waterbodies                    55
                                      8.  Contribution of Atmospheric Deposition to Total, Loadings
                                         of Nitrogen for Selected Waterbodies                               55
                                      9.  U.S. Sources of Air Pollutants of Concern                           59
                                     10.  Source Apportionment Techniques                                 61

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Abbreviations and Acronyms
                                    AAs         Assistant Administrators
                                    ACTs        Achievable control technology documents
                                    ANPR       Advance notice of proposed rulemaking
                                    AWQC       Ambient water quality criterion or criteria
                                    BCCs        Bioaccumulative chemicals of concern
                                    CWA        Clean Water Act
                                    DDE        Dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene
                                    DDT        Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane
                                    EPA        U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                                    FIFRA       Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act
                                    g           Gram
                                    GLWQA     Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement
                                    GLWQB     Great Lakes Water Quality Board
                                    GLWQO     Great Lakes Water Quality Objective
                                    HAP        Hazardous air pollutant
                                    HCH        Hexachlorocyclohexane
                                    IJC         International Joint Commission
                                    kg          Kilogram
                                    L           Liter
                                    LQER       Lesser-quantity emission rates
                                    MACT       Maximum achievable control technology
                                    MCL        Maximum contaminant level
                                    m3          Cubic meter
                                    mg          Milligram
                                    NEP        National Estuary Program
                                    NERRS      National Estuarine Research Reserve System
                                    ng          Nanogram
                                    NOAA       National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
                                    NOX         Oxides of nitrogen
                                    NPDES      National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System
                                    PAH        Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon  .
                                    PCB        Polychlorinated biphenyl
                                    pGLWQC    Proposed Great Lakes water quality criteria
                                    POM        Polycyclic organic matter
                                    ppb         Parts per billion
                                    ppm         Parts per million
                                    ppt          Parts per trillion
                                    RAs         Regional Administrators
                                    TCDD       Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin
                                    TCDF       Tetrachlorodibenzofuran
                                    TSCA       Toxic Substances Control Act
                                    WHO        World Health Organization
                                    yr          Year
VI

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Acknowledgments
                                                  The EPA would like to acknowledge the significant contribution
                                             that was made in the development of this report by the scientific com-
                                             munity. The authors of the three background documents, upon which
                                             the scientific content of this Report to Congress is based, prepared these
                                             documents in a difficult time frame and worked long hours to revise
                                             them in response to peer review comments. These author teams were:

                                                  Relative Loadings
                                                  Joel E. Baker, University of Maryland
                                                  Thomas  M. Church, University of Delaware
                                                  Steven J. Eisenreich, University of Minnesota
                                                  William  K. Fitzgerald, University of Connecticut
                                                  Joseph R. Scudlark, University of Delaware

                                                  Source  Identification
                                                  Gerald J. Keeler, University of Michigan
                                                  Jozef M. Pacyna, University of Michigan
                                                  Terry F. Bidleman, Atmospheric Environment Service
                                                  Jerome 0. Nriagu, Environment Canada

                                                  Effects
                                                  Wayland R. Swain, Eco Logic International, Inc.
                                                  Theo Colborn, World Wildlife Fund
                                                  Carol Bason, World Wildlife Fund
                                                  Robert W. Howarth, Cornell University
                                                  Lorraine Lamey, Eco Logic International, Inc.
                                                  Brent D. Palmer, Ohio University, Athens
                                                  Deborah L. Swackhamer, University of Minnesota.

                                                  Also, EPA would like to express appreciation to the wider commu-
                                             nity of scientists, both within and outside the Agency, who participated
                                             in the workshop to discuss and evaluate the draft technical background
                                             reports and to all of the participating scientists for their efforts in
                                             reviewing drafts of Chapter 3 of this Report to Congress.
                                                  In addition, many employees throughout the EPA have made
                                             significant contributions to this Report to Congress.
                                                                                                        vii

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Executive Summary
                                                    Pollutants emitted into the atmosphere are transported various
                                               distances and can be deposited to aquatic ecosystems far removed from
                                               their original sources. Scientific studies show that atmospheric deposi-
                                               tion is often an important factor in the degradation of water quality
                                               and the associated adverse health and ecological effects in studied
                                               waterbodies. In response to the mounting information indicating that
                                               air pollution contributes significantly to water pollution, Congress
                                               included section 112(m), referred to as the Great Waters program,
                                               in the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990 (1990 Amendments). This
                                               report fulfills the Act's requirement for a Report to Congress 3 years
                                               after enactment.
                                                    The purpose of the Great Waters program is to evaluate the
                                               atmospheric deposition of air pollutants to the Great Lakes, Lake
                                               Champlain, Chesapeake Bay, and coastal waters. The report to Con-
                                               gress is  to include information on the contribution of atmospheric depo-
                                               sition to pollutant loadings, the environmental or public health effects of
                                               such pollution, the source or sources of such pollution, and a description
                                               of any regulatory revisions under applicable Federal laws that may be
                                               necessary to assure protection  of human health and the environment.
                                                    The scientific information currently available is summarised in
                                               this report, and recommended  actions are described.
                                                    Water quality conditions  in the Great Lakes and many other
                                               waterbodies are greatly improved compared to a few decades ago, the
                                               result of environmental regulatory programs and public and industrial
                                               cleanup  efforts addressing primarily waterborne pollution. However,
                                               despite the improvements, the  Great Waters ecosystems are far from
                                               fully recovered, and it is necessary to address the more  diffuse sources
                                               of pollution, including the air component, in order to attain water qual-
                                               ity goals and to ensure protection of human health and the environ-
                                               ment.
                                                    Pollutants of concern to the Great Waters possess certain common
                                               characteristics. They persist in the environment and, thus, can travel
                                               great distances, often being deposited and reemitted many times.  These
                                               pollutants accumulate in the environment, making the potential for
                                               exposure to them greater than  for pollutants that readily degrade. The
                                               potential for long-distance  transport is evident by the presence of pollut-
                                               ants in remote, pristine environments such as the Arctic.
                                                    Pollutants of concern also accumulate in body tissues and magnify
                                               up the food web, with each level accumulating the toxics from its diet
                                               and passing the burden along to the animal in the next level of the food
                                                                                                             IX

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Executive Summary
                                                web. Top consumers in the food web, usually consumers of large fish,
                                                may accumulate chemical concentrations many millions of times greater
                                                than the concentrations present in the water. As a result of unsafe con-
                                                centrations of chemicals in fish, due to biomagnification, fish consump-
                                                tion advisories have been issued in hundreds  of waterbodies nationwide,
                                                including the Great Lakes. High-risk groups,  which fish consumption
                                                advisories are established to protect, include breast-feeding mothers
                                                because breast-fed babies continue to accumulate from their mothers
                                                after birth. For example, they can have PCB levels four times higher
                                                than their mothers after 6 to 9 months of breast-feeding. Other groups at
                                                high risk are subpopulations such as sport anglers, Native Americans,
                                                and the urban poor, who tend to have high fish consumption. EPA and
                                                other agencies are addressing this environmental justice issue by exam-
                                                ining impacts to higher-risk populations and taking this into consider-
                                                ation in regulating activities.
                                                      Significant adverse effects on human health and wildlife have  been
                                                observed due to exposure, especially through fish consumption, to  persis-
                                                tent pollutants that bioaccumulate. Adverse effects range from immune
                                                system disease and reproductive problems in  wildlife to subtle develop-
                                                mental and neurological impacts on children and fetuses.
                                                      Although most of the chemicals of concern are probable human
                                                carcinogens, many  are also developmental toxicants capable of altering
                                                the formation and function of critical body systems and organs. There-
                                                fore, the developing embryo and fetus and breast-fed infants are particu-
                                                larly sensitive to these chemicals.
                                                      Ecological effects attributable to pollutants of concern are signifi-
                                                cant~and can be subtle or delayed in onset, such as immune function
                                                impairment., reproductive problems, and neurological changes—all of
                                                which can affect population survival.
                                                      Other adverse ecological effects are caused by nitrogen compounds.
                                                Nitrogen compounds from atmospheric deposition exacerbate nutrient
                                                enrichment (or eutrophication) of coastal waterbodies, which results  in
                                                impacts that range from nuisance algal blooms to the depletion of oxygen
                                                with resultant fish kills.
                                                      Studies show that significant portions of loadings to the Great
                                                Waters of the pollutants of concern are coming from the atmosphere. For
                                                example, 76 to 89 percent of PCBs to Lake Superior and up to 40  per-
                                                cent of nitrogen loadings to the Chesapeake Bay are estimated to  come
                                                from air pollution. However, insufficient data are available to generalize
                                                the atmospheric loadings to all waters. Absolute quantities of deposited
                                                pollutants are also important, especially since loadings of even small
                                                amounts of pollutants that bioaccumulate can result in significant pollut-
                                                ant burdens in fish.
                                                      Pollutants of concern in the Great Waters originate from sources
                                                that~are local to, as well as distant from, the  impacted  waters. Transport
                                                distances depend on the characteristics of the chemicals and source
                                                emissions as well as weather patterns. As such, generalizing source

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                                                Executive Summary
identification from one waterbody to another would not be accurate.
More data are needed to determine sources and source categories
affecting the Great Waters.
      Uncertainties in current information are significant, and further
research is needed to better characterize the most important information
for decisionmakers. However, adequate information is available to lead
EPA to the conclusion that some actions are justified and necessary at
this time. Adverse effects of the chemicals of concern are evident and
studies of selected waters show significant proportions of toxic pollution
coming from the atmosphere. However, because the linkage between
specific sources and subsequent deposition and effects has yet to be
demonstrated, the kinds of actions described in this report focus on the
chemicals of concern rather than on specific sources.
      EPA considered the implications of action and of inaction, while
recognizing that section 112(m) of the 1990 Amendments  mandates that
EPA should act to "prevent" adverse effects and to "assure protection of
human health and the environment." EPA's recommendation is that
reasonable actions are justified, based on evaluation of the scientific
information currently available, and should now be taken and that
research should continue. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) concurs with this recommendation.
      Most of the actions EPA will undertake focus on utilizing regula-
tory mechanisms in the Clean Air Act that are intended to address the
most hazardous chemicals. EPA believes that the characteristics of toxic-
ity, persistence, and tendency to bioaccumulate warrant special treat-
ment of the Great Waters pollutants of concern and that this is consis-
tent with congressional intent for those regulatory mechanisms and for
section 112(m).
      The recommendations from the report fall into three strategic
themes. First, EPA will continue ongoing efforts to implement section
112 and other sections of the Clean Air Act and use the results of this
report in the development of policy that will reduce emissions of Great
Waters pollutants of concern. Under this theme, EPA will take actions
that include:  publishing emission standards affecting important chemi-
cals of concern ahead of schedule, where possible; evaluating the ad-
equacy of control technologies for important pollutants; publishing an
advance notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPR) for establishment of
lesser-quantity emission rates (LQERs) to define smaller sources to be
regulated as "major sources" and evaluating which Great Waters pollut-
ants warrant establishment of an LQER; evaluating which area sources
should be regulated with maximum achievable control technology
(MACT); and considering appropriate emission levels requiring regula-
tion when sources are modified.
      Second, EPA recognizes the need for an integrated multimedia
approach to this problem and, therefore, will utilize authorities beyond
the Clean Air Act to reduce human and  environmental exposure to
pollutants of concern. Under this theme, EPA will take actions that
                                                                XI

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Executive Summary
                                                include using the GreatrWaters Core Project Management Group as a
                                                coordinating body to communicate with other offices/agencies. The
                                                objectives will be to: coordinate work and especially to identify lead
                                                offices to implement recommendations; support changes to the Clean
                                                Water Act that address nonwaterborne sources of water pollution;
                                                address the exportation of banned pesticides; emphasize pollution pre-
                                                vention efforts to reduce environmental loadings of pollutants of concern;
                                                and facilitate information sharing between EPA and other agencies.
                                                      Third, EPA will continue to support research activities and will
                                                develop and implement a program strategy to define further necessary
                                                research. Under this theme, EPA will take actions that include: focus-
                                                ing research planning on a mass-balance approach to determine relative
                                                loadings; using an appropriate mix of monitoring, modeling, and emis-
                                                sion inventory tasks in conducting mass-balance work; assessing the
                                                need for tools to be developed for risk assessment for total exposure to
                                                pollutants of concern and for regulatory benefits assessment; and con-
                                                tinuing to support ongoing research efforts.
xil

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Executive Summary

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                                                       mcreased concentrations ot FLBs in the mother, since
                                                       PCBs can cross through the placenta and directly affect
                                                       embryos in the womb.* See page 34 for further discussion
                                                       of this issue.

                                                       •  Fish-eating birds, mammals, and reptiles have experi-
                                                       enced reproductive problems and a variety of other adverse
                                                       effects associated with chemical pollution, leading to popu-
                                                       lation declines for many species. Embryo and offspring
                                                       mortality have been linked to PCBs and other  toxic
                                                       chemicals.
                                                       •  Damage to fish has been linked to chemical pollution,
                                                      .iacludmg effecMon hormone fraction, immune system
                                                       response, and enzyme activity. Several studies have
                                                       reported the occurrence of cancer and other toxic effects in
                                                       bottom-feeding fish in tributaries and harbors of the Great
                                                       Lakes.
-
                                                       •  Commercial fishing has been closed or restricted in
                                                       portions of all five Great Lakes at various times in recent
                                                       years because of toxic chemical pollution, and restrictions
                                                       are still in place for many fish species. Numerous health
                                                       advisories have been issued to discourage consumption of
                                                       certain fish caught in the Great Lakes.
                                                       *PCB concentrations in fish have decreased since the 1970s.
                                                       However, fish consumption advisories exist for certain types of
                                                       fish in specific lakes due to current PCB concentrations in the
                                                       fish.
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                                                                                                    Chapter One
                                                                                                    Introduction
        Evidence for
      Long-Distance
 Atmospheric Transport

 • Chemicals from anthropogenic
   sources (i.e., created by hu-
   mans) are present in Arctic
   and Antarctic ecosystems,
   thousands of miles from likely
   emission sources.

•  Lead and other trace metals
   have been measured in air
   and rainfall at remote loca-
   tions over the Atlantic  and
   Pacific Oceans, thousands of
   miles from likely sources.

•  European research suggests,
   that the major sources  of trace
   metals and persistent organic
   chemicals deposited from air
   into the Baltic Sea are  located
   hundreds of miles away.
amounts in the United States since the 1970s, have become widely dis-
tributed in the environment and are now, in essence, part of the global
"background." These toxic chemicals remain in our environment and
continue to cycle between air, water, soil, and biota (living organisms),
even after their manufacture, use, or release has stopped.
     A number of recent field studies have demonstrated that air pollu-
tion is an important contributor to chemical pollution of U.S. lakes and
coastal waters. Some of these studies are described below.

     •  Air and rainfall in the Great Lakes region, the Chesapeake Bay
        watershed, and other areas have repeatedly been shown to be
        contaminated with a variety of toxic chemicals. PCBs, for
        example, are present in the air above all five Great Lakes and
        are also present (at roughly similar levels) in the air above
        Chesapeake Bay. PCB levels either currently exceed or have
        recently exceeded water quality standards in portions  of all of
        the Great Lakes (see appendix B).

     •  A recent series of studies of Wisconsin lakes indicate that the
        air is a major contributor of mercury to these lakes and that
        modest increases in atmospheric deposition of mercury could
        lead directly to higher levels of mercury in fish. These studies
        are in broad agreement with research on mercury deposition to
        Swedish lakes.

     •  Studies of fish from Siskiwit Lake-a small lake on an  island
        in northern Lake Superior that is isolated from most human
        influences - have shown contamination  with PCBs, toxaphene,
        and other pesticides, which have no known sources on the
       island. Toxaphene, a pesticide banned in the United States in
        1982, had limited use in the Lake Superior region but was used
       heavily in the southeastern U.S. Cotton Belt from the late
        1960s to the mid-1970s. This use pattern indicates that tox-
       aphene was probably transported by air from the Southeast to
       the Great Lakes region. Airborne levels  of toxaphene are high-
       est in the southeastern U.S. and decline with distance as one
       moves toward the Great Lakes and north Atlantic regions.1

     • It is likely that other pesticides present  in the Great Lakes,
       including DDT, are transported long distances by air, from
       itheir sources to the Great Lakes region.2 Based on the amount
       and chemical form of DDT present in core samples from peat
       bogs in the Great Lakes region, new releases of DDT are appar-
       ent and may be originating from sources outside the United
       States, possibly Mexico and Central America.2  Atmospheric
       deposition of DDT, toxaphene, hexachlorobenzene, and PCB
       levels in the Great Lakes region, as measured in peat cores, are

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Chapter One
Introduction
   The Clean Air Act establishes
   research, reporting, and regulatory
   requirements related to atmos-
   pheric deposition to the Great
   Waters, including a mandate that
   EPA, in cooperation with the
   National Oceanic and Atmospheric
   Administration, submit a Report
   to Congress in 1993 and every
   2 years thereafter.
                                                         consistent with the U.S. production and use history of these
                                                         chemicals.3
             • Long-term sampling of precipitation falling onto coastal waters
               near Lewes, Delaware, indicates that concentrations of most
               trace metals in rainfall have been fairly constant in recent
               years and are far greater than concentrations in most surface
               waters. A notable exception is the concentration of lead in
               rainfall, which has declined since the major reduction in use of
               leaded gasoline in the United States in the mid-1980s.4

             • Various forms of nitrogen, a nutrient that can cause undesir-
               able effects in coastal marine waterbodies when present in
               excessive amounts, have been measured in rain falling on
               Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. A significant fraction of
               the total nitrogen entering Chesapeake Bay (28 to 40 percent)
               and several other estuaries is believed to come from atmos-
               pheric deposition.

             Eecent monitoring studies conclude that the air is supplying
        approximately 77-89, 63, and 58 percent of the PCBs currently entering
        Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan, respectively. Atmospheric input
        accounts for more than  95 percent of the lead entering these water-
        bodies. Overall, scientists estimate that  35 to 50 percent of current
        yearly inputs of a variety of toxic chemicals to the Great Lakes may be
        from the air. Similar studies indicate that atmospheric  deposition is an
        important source of metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs,
        a subgroup of polycyclic organic matter), PCBs,  and nitrogen com-
        pounds to Chesapeake Bay.  Monitoring  studies, along with direct mea-
        surements of pollutants entering waterbodies in precipitation, show
        that air pollution is not just a theoretical source of the toxic chemicals
        present in large lakes and coastal waters but is, in some cases, a
        significant contributor to the overall amount of pollution entering
        waterbodies (see  Tables 7 and 8, page 55, and Figure 11, page 52).
Section 112(m) of the Clean Air Act, as Amended in 1990

             Section 112(m) of the 1990 Amendments establishes research and
        reporting requirements related to atmospheric deposition of hazardous
        air pollutants* to the Great Lakes, Lake Champlain, Chesapeake Bay,
        and coastal waters (defined in the statute to include coastal waters in
        the National Estuary Program or the National Estuarine Research
 *Section ll^m), and therefore this Report to Congress, does not address acid rain. This report addresses pollutants from the section
   112(b) list of 189 hazardous air pollutants, along with two other pollutants of concern.

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                                                                                                        Chapter One
                                                                                                        Introduction
                                                 Lake
                                                Superior
                                                                     Lake
                                                         Lake      Champlain
                                                         Huron Lake
                                                              Ontario
Reserve System). Figure I shows the locations of currently designated
Great Waters.
      This report focuses primarily on the Great Lakes because much
of the available scientific information on deposition of toxic air pollut-
ants is from studies of the Great Lakes. Where data were available,
studies of the Chesapeake Bay are cited. The Chesapeake Bay is one of
                                      the only coastal waterbodies
                                      for which data exist on atmos-
                                      pheric deposition, loadings,
                                      and effects of nitrogen and
                                      toxic air pollutants. Continuing
                                      research, building on available
                                      information, particularly from
                                      the Great Lakes, is examining
                                      whether information from the
                                      Great Lakes and Chesapeake
                                      Bay is applicable to other
                                      Great Waters.
                                            Section 112(m) directs
                                      EPA, in cooperation with the
                                      National Oceanic and Atmos-
                                      pheric Administration (NOAA),
                                      to assess the extent of atmos-
                                      pheric deposition of hazardous
                                                                         Chesapeake
                                                                            Bay
                                   + Great Waters designated by name
                                   • EPA National Estuary Program (NEP) Sites
                                   • NOAA NERRS Designated Sites*
                                   D Existing EPA and NOAA NERRS Designated Sites
                                   D Existing EPA and NOAA NERRS Proposed Sites
*NOAA=National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration;
NERRS=National Estuarine Research Reserve System
Figure 1. Locations of
designated Great Waters.
                                      air pollutants to the Great
                                      Waters. As part of this assess-
                                      ment, EPA is to monitor
                                      atmospheric deposition, inves-
                                      tigate sources and deposition
                                      rates, conduct research to
                                      improve monitoring methods
and to determine relative loadings, evaluate human health and environ-
mental effects,* assess violations of water quality standards, and
sample fish and wildlife for atmospherically deposited pollutants. Sec-
tion 112(m) specifically requires that EPA establish atmospheric deposi-
tion monitoring networks in the Great Waters. In addition, EPA must
determine whether the other regulatory programs under section 112 are
"adequate to prevent serious adverse effects to public health and serious
or widespread environmental effects" associated with atmospheric
deposition to the Great Waters. Based on this determination, EPA is
directed to take additional measures that are necessary and appropriate
to prevent serious effects to human health and the  environment.
     In addition to the above requirements, section 112(m)(5) directs
EPA, in cooperation with NOAA, to submit, by November 1993 and
* Environmental effects include both ecological effects and other welfare effects such as the commercial impacts of depleted fish popula-
 tions or lost recreational opportunities.

-------

       >gress,


     jeopjaeraHveeliorts of various
                                    ana State
j|jjli|||l^^                                                       |
iss has been made in deposition momtonng.

                            una stations (one_per lake) are col-___     __|
                        deposition samples (since 1992)7
       .emenlary stationary stations and ship-based intensive coi-
iif'iS™^
                    :eWchigan, 1993-1996.
                               earcr
           jlain

                                  ,. ^^p^-J^y.- deposition
   • of nutfienla and hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) in the Lake
   "'Champlain basin.
                                                    the
                             Consortium, and ^^             ,
                             mmiam^^MimmtjimmiK^f^'-i'mff'.m^a^i
                 erative, in cooperation, are conducting

    Chesapeake Bay and Other Coastal Waters
    • From 1990-1993, three stations collected wet and dry toxics.
    deposition , samples in .the Chesapeake Bay.

    • Intensive collection efforts for characterization of urban
    plume influence to the Chesapeake Bay are being undertaken.

    • NOAA conducts the Atmospheric Nutrient Input to Coastal
    Areas (ANICA) program to determine the fraction of coastal
    nutrient pollution that comes by way of the atmosphere. So far,
    efforts have centered on the northeastern U.S. coast, with a
    :_fc!Cua_ODL.Cbjeiapeake Bay, and have been accomplished through
                                     networks.             ......
    |LKQAA conducts the Atmospheric Integrated Research Moni-
    taring Network, which is intended to supply data to atmos-
    pheric modelers for evaluating the changes in nitrogen and
    other atmospheric contaminants due to legislated emission
    reductions. Progress to date includes the establishment of four
    daily monitoring stations in or near northeastern U.S. Great
    Waters  drainage basins.
     • A screening-level toxics monitoring effort in Galveston Bay
     is collecting various toxics, comparable in method to work in
     the Chesapeake Bay.

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                                                        Chapter One
                                                        Introduction
every 2 years thereafter, a Eeport to Congress on atmospheric deposi-
tion to the Great Waters. The report is to describe "results of any moni-
toring, studies, and investigations conducted pursuant to" section
112(m) and, at a minimum, is to include an assessment of:

      • the contribution of atmospheric deposition to pollution of the
        Great Waters,
      • environmental and human health effects of air pollutants that
        are deposited to the Great Waters,
      • sources of air pollutants that are deposited to the Great
        Waters,
      • whether atmospheric deposition contributes to violations of
        drinking water standards or water quality standards or
        exceedances of Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement objec-
        tives, and
      • regulatory changes needed to ensure protection of human
        health and the environment.

      In the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act, Congress placed
special emphasis on mercury  as a toxic air pollutant. Several subsec-
tions in section 112 contain special requirements for the study of mer-
cury and the regulation of mercury emissions. Section 112(c)(6) lists
mercury, along with six other pollutants (all of which are listed in this
report as Great Waters pollutants of concern) and requires that EPA
identify and regulate the sources responsible for at least 90  percent of
total air emissions of each pollutant.  Section 112(n)(l)(A) requires EPA
to perform a study of the hazards to public health that are anticipated
to occur as a result of emissions from electric steam-generating units.
                       A report to Congress on the results of this
                       study is scheduled to be completed in Novem-
                       ber 1995. Section 112(n)(l)(B) requires EPA to
                       conduct a study of the air emissions of mer-
                       cury from electric utilities, municipal waste
                       combustors, and other sources, including area
                       sources. A separate report on the results of
                       this  study is due to Congress by November
                       1994. Section 112(n)(l)(C) directs the National
                       Institute of Environmental Health Sciences to
                       conduct a study to determine a "threshold"
                       level for human health effects from mercury
                       exposure, including a threshold for mercury
                       concentrations in fish that may be  eaten by
                       humans. Because of the strong evidence indi-
                       cating the importance of atmospheric deposi-
                       tion  of mercury to waterbodies, as well as the
                       attention given mercury in section 112,  this

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Chapter One
Introduction
                                                report includes mercury as a "case study" pollutant in each of the three
                                                main scientific sections.
                                        Report Objectives

                                                     The main objectives of this Report to Congress are to describe
                                                what is known about atmospheric deposition of toxic chemicals to the
                                                Great Waters and to present'any appropriate regulatory recommenda-
                                                tions based on the currently available scientific information. The report,
                                                along with its supporting documentation, is intended to assemble infor-
                                                mation that will allow EPA to (1) determine the extent to which air
                                                pollution is a significant contributor to water quality problems in the
                                                Great Waters, (2) evaluate the effectiveness of current regulatory
                                                programs in addressing known or potential problems, and (3) decide
                                                whether additional regulatory actions are needed. The report also sum-
                                                marizes progress to date on research initiatives under section 112(m),
                                                identifies critical research needs, and describes the program strategy
                                                that is being developed to address research and regulatory needs. It also
                                                serves as a starting point for EPA's future assessments of the scientific
                                                data available for subsequent biennial reports. This Report to Congress
                                                on the deposition of air pollutants to the Great Waters addresses only
                                                atmospheric deposition of toxic chemicals and nitrogen compounds, and
                                                not acid rain. Atmospheric deposition of nitrogen compounds is
                                                addressed because of nitrogen's role in eutropbication of many coastal
                                                estuarine and marine waters.
   This Report to Congress summarizes the
   current understanding of atmospheric
   deposition of toxic chemicals to the Great
   Watgrs and identifies key regulatory and
   research needs, based in part on inputs
   from leading independent scientists.
                                        Report Preparation
     EPA's and NOAA's approach to preparing this report relied
heavily on participation by independent scientists who have conducted
research on atmospheric deposition of toxic pollutants. As a first step,
EPA sponsored a literature search on the topic of atmospheric deposition
of chemicals to surface waters, identifying more than 1,100 scientific
publications.5  EPA then convened three committees of leading indepen-
dent scientists and charged them with evaluating and summarizing the
scientific literature in the three areas identified in section 112(m):
exposure and effects of atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters,
relative atmospheric loadings to the Great Waters, and sources contrib-
uting to atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters. Each committee
prepared a draft paper, and,  in November 1992, EPA sponsored a 2-day
workshop to discuss and comment on the draft papers. Attendees of the
workshop included the committee members, other independent scien-
tists, EPA scientists, EPA program representatives, and representatives
of groups that include NOAA, State agencies, and industry and environ-
mental groups. Following the workshop, the committees prepared final

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                                                        Chapter One
                                                        Introduction
documents that represent syntheses of much of the scientific knowledge
in the three areas identified.6'7'8  This Keport to Congress condenses the
information in these three scientific background papers into a relatively
concise and readable report. All scientific data and conclusions pre-
sented in this Report to Congress, except those specifically referenced to
other sources, are drawn from the three background papers, which are
fully referenced.
     This document fulfills the section 112(m)(5) requirements for the
first Eeport to Congress on atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters.
Chapter  1 introduces the section 112(m) requirements and the report
objectives, as well as provides examples of studies that identify
atmospheric deposition as a contributor to chemical pollution of the
Great Waters. Chapter 2 summarizes the activities of EPA's Great
Waters Program and highlights the questions it is addressing. Chapter
3 addresses the scientific questions of section 112(m) by summarizing
information on exposure and effects, relative loadings, and sources.
Chapter  4 presents conclusions from an evaluation of the science and
provides  regulatory recommendations. All references cited (i.e., the
references for information taken from sources other than the three
scientific background papers) are listed in Chapter 5. The Appendices
include, among other items, a description of past EPA regulations, a
summary of current section 112 activities, a summary of progress to
date on research initiated in response to section 112(m), and a
description of research needs. Future reports to Congress, required
every 2 years, will provide more complete information as it becomes
available.

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                           lt\ t
                                                                                           4  u yotf 4AWUMU
                                                                                          j*t  i'
-------
Chapter  Two
Overview  of the  Great  Waters Program
                                                 Section 112(m) of the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990
                                            (1990 Amendments), raises numerous questions regarding the extent
                                            and significance of atmospheric deposition of toxic chemicals to the
                                            Great Waters. EPA's Great Waters Program is attempting to answer
                                            these questions. Answers to these scientific questions will provide the
                                            information necessary to determine the need for additional regulatory
                                            actions to reduce atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters.
                                                 Scientists have long recognized the basic process by which air
                                            pollutants can enter rivers, lakes, and other waterbodies. The steps in
                                            this process are shown in Figure 2.

                                                 • First, pollutants  are released to the air from a source, which
                                                   may be natural or anthropogenic (i.e., created by humans).
                                                   Anthropogenic sources include point sources, such as industrial
                                                   smokestacks or any other fixed location that releases pollut-
                                                   ants, and area sources, such as pesticide applications on agri-
                                                   cultural fields and vehicle exhaust. Natural sources also can
                                                   be classified as either point or area sources and include, for
                                                   example, forest fires, volcanic eruptions, windblown dust and
                                                   soil, and sea spray. Pollutants can be released either as gases
                                                   or as particles.

                                                 • Second, pollutants released to the ah- are transported away
                                                   from their source to other locations. Depending on weather
                                                   conditions and the chemical and physical properties of the
                                                   pollutant, air pollutants may be transported either short or
                                                   long distances from their sources and may undergo physical
                                                   and chemical changes while in transit.

                                                 • Third, air pollutants are deposited to the earth, in most cases
                                                   directly to a waterbody or to a land area that  drains into a
                                                   waterbody. Pollutants are deposited by "wet deposition" or "dry
                                                   deposition." In wet deposition, pollutants are  removed from
                                                   the air by a precipitation event such as rain or snow. Dry
                                                   deposition occurs when particles settle out of the air and into
                                                   water. Air pollutants can also enter a waterbody indirectly, by
                                                   first depositing onto surrounding land or tributaries and then
                                                   moving into the waterbody by other routes, such as stormwater
                                                   runoff or inflow from tributary streams.
                                                                                                      11

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Chapter Two
Overview of the Great Waters Program
  .£••'(•?•'••?'•'

Particulate
  Matter
                        Sources of Ibxic Pollutants
             Anthropogenic Sources
 Natural Sources
Local or long-distance
transport
Changes in chemical/
physical forms    Indirect
             Deposition*
                                                                                             Wet
                                                                                          Deposition
   Dry   -''/ 'I1''; /''' Air/Water
 Particle , ', •  '//    Gas
Deposition        Exchange
Figure 2. How does atmospheric
deposition occur?
* Indirect deposition is direct depo-
  sition to land followed by runoff
  or seepage through groundwater
  to a surface waterbody.
             Current understanding of the details of each of these steps is
        limited, although it is growing as a result of recent scientific research
        (see Figure 3). As early as 1907, localized atmospheric deposition of
        metals around smelters was reported.10'11 In the late 1960s, the discov-
        ery of anthropogenic chemicals (i.e., chemicals created by humans) in
        Antarctic snow provided strong evidence that air pollutants can travel
        long distances and be deposited in remote areas. Additional confirmation
        of toxic chemical contamination caused by atmospheric deposition was
        provided in the 1970s by, among other studies, the reporting of
        anthropogenic chemical contamination in Arctic mammals and the dis-
        covery of PCBs and toxaphene in fish in the isolated waters of Siskiwit
        Lake on an island in Lake Superior. Studies of atmospheric deposition
        continued throughout the 1980s and included mass balance studies of
        PCBs and other toxic chemicals in the Great Lakes, implicating air
        pollution as a major contributor to contamination of waterbodies. These
        studies have yielded considerable information about how atmospheric
        deposition occurs and the role  and significance of air pollution in influ-
        encing water quality.
             As part of the Great Waters  Program, four major activities have
        been identified that will increase the current understanding of atmos-
        pheric deposition. Each of these activities addresses different scientific
        and regulatory questions, as shown in Table 1. These activities provide a
        logical framework for deciding what actions are needed to reduce atmos-
        pheric deposition to the Great Waters, thereby minimizing the effects
        caused by the deposited pollutants.
12

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                                                                                                       Chapter Two
                                                                               Overview of the Great Waters Program
    The United States and
  Canada, through joint efforts of
  EPA, Environment Canada, and
  Ontario's Ministry of Environ-
  ment and Energy, have been
  implementing a bilateral program
  on airborne toxic substances in
  the Great Lakes basin since 1990.
  This program includes bilateral
  cooperation in monitoring of toxic
  air deposition as part of the Great
  Lakes Water Quality Agreement
  (GLWQA) Integrated Atmospheric
  Deposition Network and in
  managing and assessing loadings
  of toxic air pollutants to the
  Great Lakes Basin.
         Many Federal, State, and local government agencies, government
    agencies of other countries, and other organizations and independent
    researchers are involved in efforts to address the scientific questions
    related to atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters. Some of the
    groups involved are:
            U.S. EPA Offices (including the Office of Eesearch and Develop-
            ment, EPA Program Offices, and EPA Regional Offices)
            U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
            Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry
            Environment Canada
            International Joint Commission
            Great Lakes Commission
            Chesapeake Bay Research Consortium
            Vermont Monitoring Cooperative
            State agencies
            Local government agencies.
                                                     The four major activities listed in Table 1 are discussed in
                                               sequence below.
         Atmospheric deposition identified
         as important source of trace
         metals in Lake Michigan*
Longest ongoing
precipitation monitoring
for trace metals initiated
at Lewes, Delaware
                         Contamination of Arctic
                         mammals with PCBs
                         reported
        Studies indicate 25-40%
        of nitrogen loadings to
        Chesapeake Bay are from
        atmospheric deposition
                Clean Air Act
                amendments
g i
•)
H
k *— *
i— i
f^^~S Contamination of
^^% Antarctic snow
°°o0o°0 with DDT
°0 ° ,° reported
^ g
O3
T— i
PCBs and toxaphen
discovered in fish
from Siskiwit Lake

                                                  published indicating
                                                  significance of atmospheric
                                                  deposition as source
                                                  of toxic chemicals in
                                                  Great Lakes
Figure 3. Significant milestones in understanding
atmospheric deposition of toxic air pollutants
to aquatic ecosystems.
* Reference 9, all other information from References 6-8.
• Analysis of pollutant exposure
and effects in the Great Waters.
EPA, in cooperation with other Fed-
eral, State, and local agencies, has
identified, and will continue to iden-
tify, air pollutants that are  of pos-
sible concern for atmospheric deposi-
tion based on how long they persist
in the environment, their ability to
travel long distances when released
from sources, their tendency to accu-
mulate in animals and plants, and
other factors. At the same time, EPA
is evaluating whether these pollut-
ants are associated with exposures to
humans, animals, and plants and,
subsequently, with human health
and environmental effects. This  first
activity focuses on whether the pol-
lutants of concern for atmospheric
deposition can be linked to any envi-
ronmental or public health impacts
that appear to be significant enough
to warrant action.
                                                                                                                13

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Chapter Two
Overview of the Great Waters Program
                                                         Analysis of how pollutants of concern actually get
                                                         into the Great Waters. EPA and others are evaluating
                                                         how much of the toxic chemical pollution in the Great
                                                         Waters comes from direct atmospheric deposition and how
                                                         much comes from other routes, such as direct discharge,
                                                         groundwater seepage, stormwater runoff, and inflow from
                                                         connecting streams and rivers (these routes may also carry
                                                         pollutants that are from indirect atmospheric deposition). If
                                                         it is established that atmospheric deposition adds signifi-
                                                         cantly to pollutant loadings of specific chemicals to the Great
                                                         Waters (and therefore to the  associated impacts identified in
                                                         the first activity), actions to reduce atmospheric deposition of
                                                         these chemicals may be warranted.

                                                         Identification and evaluation of air pollution sources
                                                         that are contributing to pollutant loadings to the
                                                         Great Waters and that could be targeted if reductions
                                                         are needed. EPA and NOAA are working to identify
                                                         sources that emit pollutants of possible concern into the air
                                                         and are determining which sources appear to add signifi-
                                                         cantly to the deposition of air pollutants to the Great
                                                         Waters.
Table 1. Major Activities and Questions Addressed by the Great Waters Program
Scientific Questions
1 What do we know about atmospheric
deposition to the Great Waters?
What human health and environmental
effects are associated with pollutants
of concern in the Great Waters?
What is the relative importance of
atmospheric deposition in causing
contamination in the Great Waters?
Where and what are sources of air
emissions of pollutants of concern?
What sources are significant contributors
to the Great Waters?
Would emission reductions be effective
in reducing effects of atmospheric
deposition to the Great Waters?
Regulatory Questions
What action is needed to reduce atmos-
pheric deposition to the Great Waters?
Are impacts or risks significant
enough to be of concern?
Are loadings from the air significant
enough to need reduction?
If reductions are needed, what
emissions sources should be targeted?
What are the options for
implementing reductions?
What are the costs and benefits
of the various options?
Major Activities /
Analyze pollutant exposure and
effects in waterbodies
Evaluate pollutant loadings
to waterbodies
Identify and evaluate air emission
sources
Identify and evaluate emission
reduction options
14

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                                                     Chapter Two
                              Overview of the Great Waters Program
     • Determination, based on the information developed
       from the three preceding activities, of whether further
       emission reductions, beyond those expected as a result
       of implementing section 112 of the 1990 Amendments,
       may be needed. EPA will identify and evaluate any needed
       emission reduction options and, as appropriate, will make
       recommendations for regulatory action under the Clean Air
       Act or other Federal laws.

     Chapter 3 of this report presents the information obtained, to
date, for each of the first three activities, including information on
pollutant exposures and effects, relative loadings, and sources. Much is
known as a result of research conducted to date, as evidenced by this
report. EPA will continue to analyze data as they become available.
Future reports to Congress will update the information presented in
this report, with greater detail and more certainty as research provides
additional data on the subject of atmospheric deposition of pollutants to
the Great Waters.
                                                               15

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                                                      W";'.

4MMMMW

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Chapter Three
Answering the  Scientific Questions
of Section  112 (m)
                                                 What is known about the extent and significance of atmospheric
                                            deposition to the Great Waters? To answer this central question and to
                                            address the issues raised in section 112(m) of the Clean Air Act, as
                                            amended in 1990 (1990 Amendments), this chapter considers three
                                            scientific questions (see sidebar next page). The first section addresses
                                            the question of exposure and effects to evaluate the human health and
                                            environmental effects associated with exposure to pollutants in the
                                            Great Waters. This section identifies pollutants of concern, describes
                                            pathways by which humans, animals, and plants may be exposed to
                                            these Great Waters pollutants, summarizes information on pollutant
                                            levels in the Great Waters and related adverse effects, and presents
                                            several case studies.  The second section addresses the question of rela-
                                            tive loading to evaluate how much of the pollution in the Great Waters
                                            comes from atmospheric deposition. This section summarizes the cur-
                                            rent understanding of atmospheric deposition processes and presents
                                            the results of mass balance case studies for selected chemicals and
                                            waterbodies. The third section addresses the question of sources to
                                            evaluate the origins of the toxic air pollutants being deposited to the
                                            Great Waters. This section summarizes what is known about various
                                            sources that emit pollutants of concern and provides several case
                                            studies as examples.
                                                 In each of these three areas, it is difficult to establish, in a rigor-
                                            ous scientific manner, definitive cause and effect relationships. In other
                                            words, it is very unlikely that one will find evidence proving that
                                            atmospheric deposition of a specific pollutant from a specific source
                                            caused a specific effect in a specific waterbody. In fact, a major chal-
                                            lenge is proving cause and effect for any one of these links, much less
                                            for the entire chain of events. Reasons for this difficulty include:
                                            (1) the very large number of factors that could contribute to causing an
                                            observed effect and the challenges of determining the contribution of
                                            each; (2) the inability to conduct fully controlled experiments in real-
                                            world field situations; (3) the inability to apply the findings of controlled
                                            laboratory experiments, with full confidence, to real-world conditions;
                                            and (4) the logistical difficulty, time, and expense required to collect the
                                            kinds of data needed to identify cause and effect relationships. Scien-
                                            tists do, however, employ a number of approaches to investigate cause
                                            and effect relationships. These approaches include:  (1) establishing
                                            correlations and associations among factors,  (2) evaluating trends in
                                            field data over long time periods, (3) analyzing for consistency between
                                            field observations and controlled laboratory data, and (4) confirming
                                                                                                      17

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 Chapter Three
 Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                preliminary findings in different settings by different investigators.
                                                Using these and other tools, scientists frequently can accumulate enough
                                                information to determine the likely causes of a given effect.
        Scientific Questions

        • Effects
          What human health and envi-
          ronmental effects are asso-
          ciated with pollutants of con-
          cern in the Great Waters?

        • Relative Loading
          What is the relative impor-
          tance of atmospheric deposi-
          tion in causing contamination
          in the Great Waters?

        • Sources
          What sources are significant
          contributors to atmospheric
          loadings to the Great Waters?

        Regulatory Question

        • Regulatory
          Is action  warranted to reduce
          atmospheric deposition?
Effects:  What Human Health and Environmental Effects
Are Associated with Exposure to Great Waters Pollutants
of Concern?

             In assessing exposure and effects, consideration must be given to
        both human health and environmental effects (and the exposures that
        cause both types of effects). Both types of effects are important in their
        own right, and, in many cases, ecological effects are early indicators of
        human health effects. For example, pollutants in water that accumulate
        in the tissues of fish may result in direct effects in fish-eating birds, such
        as decreased populations. These ecological effects, in turn, may be indica-
        tors of potential human health effects related to the consumption of
        contaminated fish. In a widely circulated 1990 report, Reducing Risk:
        Setting Priorities and Strategies for Environmental Protection, EPA's
        Science Advisory Board strongly emphasized the very close link between
        human health and ecological health and pointed out that "most human
        activities that pose significant ecological risks . . . pose direct  or indirect
        human health risks as well."12
             The mandates of section 112(m) of the 1990 Amendments require
        EPA to assess the environmental and public health effects caused by
        water pollution attributable to atmospheric deposition to the Great
        Waters and to determine whether pollutant loadings to the Great Waters
        cause or contribute to exceedances of drinking water or water quality
        standards (including, for the Great Lakes, violations of the specific objec-
        tives of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement). Although a large
        number of pollutants are potentially of concern for atmospheric deposi-
        tion, this report focuses on only 15 pollutants. Table 2 lists the 15 pollut-
        ants addressed in this report, along with examples of their uses (and use
        restrictions) in the United States.  Thirteen of these pollutants are on the
        1990 Amendments list of air pollutants; dieldrin and nitrogen are not on
        the list. All 15 are known air pollutants in the vicinity of at least some of
        the Great Waters, and all are known to be present in atmospheric depo-
        sition (e.g., rainfall). Data indicate that they are present in the Great
        Waters and that atmospheric deposition is a pathway by which they
        reach the waterbodies. All of the pollutants, with the exception of nitro-
        gen, are of concern because of their persistence in the environment
        (length of time a pollutant remains in the environment), potential to
        bioaccumulate (potential to accumulate in living organisms), and toxicity
        to humans and the environment. The range of potential effects asso-
        ciated with exposure to these pollutants (except for nitrogen) includes
        cancer, effects to the reproductive  system, developmental effects (i.e.,
        effects on the developing human, including effects on embryos, fetuses,
18

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                                                                                                          Chapter Three
                                                                    Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
 Table 2. Selected Pollutants of Concern in the Great Waters3
Pollutant
Cadmium and compounds
Chlordane
DDT/DDE
Dieldrin
Hexachlorobenzene
a-Hexaehlorocyclohexane
(a-HCH)
Lindane
(y-Hexachloroeyclohexane)
(y-HCH)
Lead and compounds
Mercury and compounds
Polychlorinated biphenyls
(PCBs)
Polycyclic organic matter
(POM)0
2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzofuran
(2,3,7,8-TCDF)
2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-
dioxin (2,3,7,8-TCDD)
Toxaphene
Nitrogen compounds
Examples of Usesb
Naturally occurring element used in metals production processes, batteries, and solder. Often
released during combustion of fossil fuels and waste oil and during mining and smelting opera-
tions.
Insecticide used widely in the 1970s and 1980s. All U.S. uses except termite control canceled in
1978; use for termite control voluntarily suspended in 1988. Use of existing stocks permitted.
Insecticide used widely from introduction in 1946 until significantly restricted in U.S. in 1972.
Still used in other countries. Used in U.S. for agriculture and public health purposes only with
special permits.
Insecticide used widely after introduction in late 1940s. Used in U.S. for termite control from
1972 until registration voluntarily suspended in 1987.
Fungicide used as seed protectant until 1985. Byproduct of chlorinated compound and pesticide
manufacturing. Also a byproduct of combustion of chlorine-containing materials. Present as a
contaminant in some pesticides.
Component of technical-HCH, an insecticide for which use is restricted in U.S., but used widely
in other countries.
Main component of lindane, an insecticide used on food crops and forests, and to control lice
and scabies in livestock and humans. Currently used primarily in China, India, and Mexico.
U.S. production stopped in 1977. Use was restricted in 1983; however, many uses are still
registered, but are expected to be voluntarily canceled in the future.
Naturally occurring element commonly used in gasoline and paint additives, storage batteries,
solder, and ammunition. Released from many combustion and manufacturing processes and from
motor vehicles. Use in paint additives restricted in U.S. in 1971. U.S. restrictions on use in
gasoline additives began in 1973 and have continued through the present, with a major use
reduction in the mid-1980s.
Naturally occurring element often used in thermometers, electrical equipment (such as batteries
and switching equipment), and industrial control instruments. Released from many combustion,
manufacturing, and natural processes. Banned as paint additive in U.S., for interior paint (1990)
and for exterior paint (1991).
Industrial chemicals used widely in the U.S. from 1929 until 1978 for many purposes, such as
coolants and lubricants and in electrical equipment (e.g., transformers and capacitors). In the
U.S., manufacture stopped in 1977 and uses were significantly restricted in 1979. Still used for
some purposes because of stability and heat resistance, and still present in certain electrical
equipment used throughout U.S.
Naturally occurring substances that are byproducts of the incomplete combustion of fossil
fuels and plant and animal biomass (e.g., forest fires). Also, byproducts from steel and coke
production and waste incineration.
Byproduct of combustion of organic material containing chlorine and of chlorine bleaching in
pulp and paper manufacturing. Also a contaminant in some pesticides.
Byproduct of combustion of organic material containing chlorine and of chlorine bleaching in
pulp and paper manufacturing. Also a contaminant in some pesticides.
Insecticide used widely on cotton in the southern U.S. until the late 1970s. Most U.S. uses
banned in 1982; remaining uses canceled in 1987.
Byproducts of combustion processes and motor vehicles. Also, compounds used in fertilizers.
"Data for this table are taken from References 13 through 27.
Applicable restrictions (including bans) on use or manufacture in the United States also are described.
TOM is a large class of chemicals consisting of organic compounds having multiple benzene rings and a boiling point greater than
 100 CC. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a chemical class that is a subset of POM.
                                                                                                                     19

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                 and children), neurological effects (i.e., effects on the brain and nervous
                                                 system), effects on the endocrine system (i.e., effects on hormone
                                                 production and function), and other noncancer effects (e.g., liver or
                                                 kidney damage). The potential for effects will depend on the level and
                                                 duration of exposure and the sensitivity of the exposed organism.
                                                       Furthermore, although some differences exist, the pollutants in
                                                 Table 2 overlap substantially with several sets of Great Lakes chemicals
                                                 of concern selected by other scientific and regulatory groups, and they
                                                 also are generally consistent with the toxic air pollutants that ranked
                                                 the highest in a 1991 EPA study to identify priority chemicals for the
                                                 Great Waters Program.28  In addition, all of the pollutants in Table 2,
                                                 except 2,3,7,8-TCDF and nitrogen compounds, are included on the list of
                                                 pollutants that are the initial focus of the EPA/State Great Lakes Water
                                                 Quality Initiative, and 10 of the 15 Great Waters pollutants of concern
                                                 are designated as chemicals of concern that have the potential to
                                                 bioaccumulate (the highest priority group).29
                                                      These pollutants, excluding nitrogen, are also of concern based  on
                                                 the priorities set by the Great Lakes Water Quality Board (GLWQB) of
                                                 the International Joint Commission, which is an advisory committee
                                                 comprised of representatives from the United States and Canada. In
                                                 addition, 5 of the 15 pollutants (cadmium, benzoMpyrene [indicator for
                                                 polycyclic organic matter (POM)], lead, mercury, and PCBs) are on the
                                                 Chesapeake  Bay Toxics of Concern List,  and two (dieldrin and toxa-
                                                 phene) are on the list of potential substances to be added to the  Chesa-
                                                 peake Bay list.
                                                       Nitrogen compounds were added to the list of pollutants consid-
                                                 ered in this report because of nitrogen's role in nutrient enrichment in
                                                 coastal waters and because data indicate that atmospheric loadings of
                                                 nitrogen to Chesapeake Bay are significant. Accelerated eutrophication,
                                                 which results from excessive loadings of nitrogen, can cause ecological
                                                 effects such  as reduced fish and shellfish populations.
                                                       The first 14 pollutants in Table 2 represent air pollutants  of prior-
                                                 ity concern for the Great Lakes. Because of the potential for these 14
                                                 pollutants to cause harm in the Great Lakes, it is likely that they have
                                                 the potential to cause harm in other fresh water systems as a result of
                                                 their tendency to bioaccumulate in living organisms, to persist in the
                                                 environment, and to be toxic to  humans and ecosystems. However, the
                                                 pollutants listed in Table 2 are not inclusive of all chemicals  that may,
                                                 now or in the future, be an important component of atmospheric deposi-
                                                 tion to the Great Lakes or other Great Waters.
                                                       Other pollutants are of potential concern for the effects that they
                                                 may cause after being deposited to the Great Waters. In the proposed
                                                 Water Quality Guidance for the Great Lakes Systems, 28 "bioaccmnu-
                                                 lative chemicals of concern" (BCCs), many of which are air pollutants,
                                                 are identified. A BCC is defined as "any chemical which, upon entering
                                                 the surface waters, by itself or as its toxic transformation product,
                                                 bioaccumulates in aquatic organisms by a human health
 20

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                                                                                                      Chapter Three
                                                                 Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
            Dissolved in water column
            (generally available to plants
            and animals)
      Accumulated in    Attached to dissolved organic
      living organisms   carbon (generally available   	j^ /
                      to animals)                    *&
                     Attached to particles, settle to bottom (generally
                     available to bottom feeders and subject to
                     resuspension by turbulence or dredging)
                        "f'fif               ~" **"* •" r
                                                   .«fc f"^
Figure 4.  Distribution of pollutants
within a waterbody.
bioaccumulation factor greater than 1000, after considering metabo-
lism and other physicochemical properties that might enhance or
inhibit bioaccumulation, .  . . "29  The guidance proposes that addi-
tional controls be established for these BCCs to obtain reductions in
loadings and to ensure that new problems do not develop in the future
with pollutants in the Great Lakes ecosystem that show a propensity to
bioaccumulate and to persist in the environment.29 Ten of the fifteen
Great Waters pollutants of concern appear on this list, and one other
appears on the list of potential bioaccumulative chemicals. These two
lists are provided in Appendix A. Future reports to Congress on atmos-
pheric deposition to the Great Waters may include many of these
additional chemicals.
     The remainder of this section describes exposure and associated
effects for the selected pollutants of concern. Exposure can be thought
of as the contact between a chemical and a living organism. Because
atmospheric deposition is a significant source of pollutants for some
Great Waters, it is reasonable to hypothesize that atmospheric deposi-
tion is contributing, to some extent, to exposure and effects occurring in
the Great Waters. Moreover, some studies have found correlations
between atmospheric deposition of pollutants and subsequent exposure
and effects in the Great Waters. Few studies, however, have  directly
and strongly linked atmospheric deposition of pollutants to exposure
and, subsequently, to effects observed in the Great Waters. Because of
the data limitations and the overall difficulty in documenting cause and
effect relationships, this section generally does  not attempt to attribute
specific effects to atmospheric deposition. Instead, it describes effects of
selected pollutants of concern known to be present in atmospheric depo-
sition. This section is further limited in its scope because much of the
available information is from the Great Lakes and Chesapeake Bay,
since relatively little research has been devoted to other Great Waters.

Current Understanding of Exposure

                          Figure 4 illustrates, in a simplified form,
                     the distribution of pollutants in a waterbody.
                     Once in a waterbody, pollutants will bind to the
                     surface of particles or dissolved organic material,
                     concentrate at the surface of the water, or dis-
                     solve and remain in solution. Most of the  selected
                     pollutants of concern tend to bind to small par-
                     ticles suspended in water. Over time, pollutants
                     associated with particles tend to deposit to, and
                     accumulate in, sediments. In some cases,  pollut-
                     ants in the sediments may not be available for
                     chemical degradation in the water. However,
                     contaminated sediments can serve as a major
                     reservoir of pollutants that continually recycles
Surface microlayer
(concentrated levels,
. generally available .to
plants and animals)
                                                                                                                 21

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                               Humans
   Cormorant
                                        Smelt
                                 Plankton
       Bacteria
       and Fungi
Dead Plants
and Animals
 Figure 5. Simplified overview of a
 food web in the Great Lakes.
the pollutants back into the ecosystem. Pollutants thus are available for
uptake by bottom-dwelling organisms and bottom-feeding fish. Binding
to dissolved organic material may also affect the pollutants' availability
for uptake. Many pollutants tend to concentrate in the surface
microlayer, which is the uppermost layer of water surface (approxi-
mately 50 H-m in depth). The surface microlayer is enriched with nutri-
ents and is an important feeding area for many microscopic plants and
animals. It also is the site for the transfer of chemicals between air and
water. Pollutants dissolved in the water tend to be readily  available for
uptake by plants and animals. The uptake of dissolved pollutants may
be the most important means by which many plants and animals are
exposed.
      For animals and plants, the possible exposure routes for toxic
pollutants present in waterbodies are intake of food, intake of drinking
water, and diredrcontact with the water.  For fish-eating birds and
mammals, intake of food is the main exposure route of concern for
pollutants that are persistent in the environment and that have the
tendency to bioaccumulate.
      Bioaccumulation is the uptake and  retention of a chemical by a
living organism as a result of either intake of food, intake of drinking
water, direct contact, or intake of air. Biomagnification refers to the
phenomenon in which chemicals become more concentrated in animals
at higher levels in the food web. The selected pollutants  for this report
tend to  accumulate in fatty tissue, and, as a result of food web interac-
tions, the highest pollutant concentrations are found in animals at the
top of the food web. Figure 5 provides a simplified overview of a food
web in the Great Lakes. In this example, organisms near the top of the
food web, such as humans and bald eagles, would tend to have higher
body concentrations of chemicals that biomagnify than organisms lower
in the food web.
      The exposure route of most concern for human health is intake of
food. Intake of drinking water is another exposure route; yet, for pollut-
ants with the capacity to bioaccumulate,  this is typically not a signifi-
cant exposure route of concern.
      Estimates of exposure levels can be made using data on pollutant
concentrations in various parts of the ecosystem. Researchers have
investigated  surface water, sediment,  and fish tissue concentrations of
toxic chemicals in the Great Lakes and Chesapeake Bay, to determine
the pattern and extent of contamination. In the Great Lakes, they found
that the influence of anthropogenic sources since the 1940s has resulted
in significant increases  in the levels of many persistent toxic chemicals.
However, there were few reliable data on toxic chemical concentrations
in water in the Great Lakes until 1980 or later.30 As a result, it is very
difficult to draw an accurate picture of tune trends in water concentra-
tion data. Recent research, however, has shown that most pollutants of
concern usually are found in water samples  at very low  levels, although
 22

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                                                     Chapter Three
                 Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
even at low levels some pollutants may cause significant effects in plants
and animals in the Great Waters.
     In general, pollutant levels in sediments have decreased, relative
to the 1970s, and the bulk of toxic pollutant influx into the Great Lakes
ecosystem occurred in the 1960s and 1970s.30 However, sediment
concentrations are still particularly elevated in sediment basins, harbors,
and delta regions (near the mouth of the river), indicating that runoff
and industrial discharge may be the source of some pollutants.31
Compared with water concentrations, sediment concentrations of pollut-
ants of concern are considerably higher, reflecting the tendency of these
pollutants to attach to particles and settle to the sediments.30 Sediment
processes such as resuspension  and resolubilization can reintroduce
significant pollutant loads.
     As  described earlier, pollutants in sediments and water can be
transferred to fish and other aquatic animals by direct contact and by
intake of food and water and can be concentrated in the animal by the
process of bioaccumulation. Numerous studies have documented cases of
elevated  levels of persistent toxic pollutants in various fish species com-
pared to  levels in water and, in many cases, compared also to levels in
sediment, reflecting the tendency of these pollutants to bioaccumulate.
     Because many Great Waters bird and mammal species rely on fish
and shellfish as a primary food source,  bioaccumulation and biomagni-
fication of these pollutants is a problem for wildlife. In fact, predators
such as the herring gull, bald eagle, and turtle in the Great Lakes
region have some of the highest reported tissue concentrations of persis-
tent toxic chemicals. The measurement of persistent toxic chemicals in
herring gull eggs has been used as an indicator of pollutant levels in the
Great Lakes ecosystem.30  One study suggested that levels  of toxic pol-
lutants in herring gull eggs have decreased from the 1970s to the early
1980s.30  Another study shows a  general decline in levels of DDE and
PCBs during the early and mid-1980s, with an increase for PCBs in
1989. DDE levels have gradually ebbed, without recent rises.32  Data on
concentration levels in Great Lakes mammals are scarce because most
research has centered on birds.
     The presence of the same pollutants in the tissue of humans and
other fish-eating animals as  those identified in water, sediment, and fish
indicates that biomagnification through the food web has the potential
to be a significant exposure concern for humans. Studies indicate that
people who regularly consumed fish from Lake Michigan in the 1970s
had significantly higher concentrations of PCBs and pesticides, such as
DDT, in  their bodies compared with those who did not consume fish.8
     The limited human tissue residue data available indicate that the
general population residing in  the Great Lakes basin is probably not
exposed to higher levels of the most persistent pollutants than people
residing  elsewhere in North America. However, individuals (e.g., native
peoples,  sports anglers) who consume large amounts of contaminated
fish and  wildlife have greater exposure to persistent pollutants than the
                                                                  23

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        'l	JB	Si	i	If"'"}	'*j!jf	i	'	«	•"	i*j	Sf'l!	*|Mr<*pi	^mmitimmai^ ^i-^:''!'.-r^i\'if»^f'l','-;ay^V'-:--^'f
        he_	^lejipfic Questions of Section 112(m)       '      ...   ...'.'.•
Total PCS and DDT Concentrations in Lake
Michigan Lake Trout
    100
                           EPA Fish Tissue
                           Concentration at 10"5
                           Risk Level
      70 72  74  76  78  80  82  84  86  88  90  92
                         Year
                             EPA Fish Tissue
                             Concentration at 10'5
                             Risk Level
      68 70  72  74 76  78 80  82 84 86  88  90  92
                         Year
Source: Reference 29.
PCB Concentrations in Coho Salmon
    10
           Huron
           Michigan
           Erie
           Ontario
         Traces in Lake Superior
             .#3^'^Wfft5^^a^^;iiH9W?M»^f»j>.'*.'Jv<- FVf.f: -'...'•••, ?.:V;B;V«
             	Ti^dblnTo!^                     	.' :
                 Concentrations in Great Lakes Fish
                      Concentrations of PCBs and DDT in Lake Michigan lake
                 trout have declined markedly since the latter half of the 1970s,
                 reflecting the relatively rapid response of the water column to
                 decreases in pollutant loadings. Beyond 1982, however, concen-
                 trations in lake trout have been higher thaii predicted levels.
                 Although concentrations are still declining, the rate of decline
                 is slowing and may be leveling off, although at concentrations
                 well above water quality criteria.                        •.-...•

                      These substances appear to be approaching equilibrium
                 in the Great Lakes system at unacceptably high levels due to
                 ^continuing loadings from a variety of sources, such as: (1) his-
                 torically contaminated sediments; (2) tributary inputs resulting
                 from point sources, spills and runoff from both urban and, rural
                 areas, and resuspension from contaminated sediments; and (3)
                 atmospheric deposition of pollutants. In 1990, concentrations of
                 PCBs and chlorinated pesticides measured in fish tissue
                 exceeded the fish tissue concentrations that correspond to cur-
                 rent EPA Clean Water Act 304(a) water quality criteria by
                 several orders of magnitude.* If a new equilibrium is being
              	reached given current mass loadings, then substantial reduc-
                 tions to the Great Lakes system will be necessary to eliminate
                 fish advisories,29
      The slowing in the rate of decline of PCBs in fish tissue is also supported
by eoho salmon data. Because coho are stocked and are in the lake for only 18
months, they respond much more quickly to changes in water column coneentra-
            n "" lions than lake trout, which have an average life span of 8
                years and can, therefore, accumulate greater PCB concentra-
                tions. After significant declines between 1980 and 1984, PCB
                concentrations in coho salmon have been relatively constant in
                all the Great Lakes since the mid-1980s, with  the exception of a
                general decline in Lake Ontario.
      79 80 81  82  83 84  85 86  87 88  89  90  91
                         Year
                *Section 304(a) of the Clean Water Act establishes numeric water
                quality criteria for the protection of the health and welfare of
                (including, but not limited to) plankton, fisjh., shellfish, wildlife,
              "plant life, shorelines, beaches, aesthetics, and recreation, which
                may be adversely impacted due to the presence of pollutants.
                                                      W^^                                  s-"."-:i"v...     .   ,
                                                T^                                              •..:. ,...••/ ..•>. :.>---v;JI ;::'»•:-
                                                '.'-'1'-*   *Ji.iti5«i?nf'!%5*i'-A''- "t'-;-.—'^-:-^' ••''••'.:•.• ^.ru:.-. ••••*.•••'.:.  -. ;-:,-;-:-i:"'' •••?£•.• .


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                                                    Chapter Three
                Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
general population.32  Studies of these sensitive subpopulations are
currently being performed by the Agency for Toxic Substances and
Disease Registry of the Department of Health and Human Services.
     Given the elevated levels of the selected pollutants of concern in
water, sediments, fish and wildlife, and humans, concern for human
exposure is warranted. One means of limiting human exposure is the
                           establishment of fishing or fish consump-
                           tion advisories or restrictions.
                                A fishing advisory or fish consump-
                           tion advisory is issued when fish taken
                           from a particular body of water are found
                           to contain levels of contaminants that
                           exceed recommended intake, or threshold,
                           levels. The majority of the advisories are
                           recommendations to  the general public
                           about the dangers of fish consumption.
                           Advisories to regulate commercial fishing
                           are enforceable by health departments
                           and are often referred to as "fishing
                           restrictions." Tables 3 and 4 summarize
                           current fish consumption advisories  and
                           fishing advisories for some of the Great
                           Waters. As shown in Table 3, portions of
                           all of the Great Lakes and many associ-
                           ated waterbodies have had or do have
some type of advisory on fish consumption. As shown in Table 4, fish
consumption and fishing advisories have also been  issued in Chesapeake
Bay and Lake Champlain. The elevated tissue levels in fish relative to
water concentrations, which have resulted in restrictions in fish con-
sumption, emphasize the importance of bioaccumulation, and subse-
quent biomagnification in the food web, when considering potential for
human exposure.

Summary of Current Understanding of Exposure
1. What Are the Major Routes of Exposure to  Pollutants Derived
   from Atmospheric Deposition?
   For water pollutants that are derived from atmospheric deposition,
   the major routes of exposure are fairly well understood. For animals,
   routes of exposure include intake of food (especially significant
   because of biomagnification in the food web), intake of drinking
   water, and direct contact. Routes of exposure for plants include  water
   uptake and direct contact. For humans and for fish-eating mammals
   and birds, the primary route of exposure is intake of food.
   Although routes of exposure have been identified, the amounts of
   toxic  pollutants to which humans, animals, and  plants are exposed
   are not easily determined given the currently available data.
                                                               25

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
 Table 3. Current Great Lakes Fish Consumption Advisories3
i Water-body
(including
! tributaries)
Lake Superior
Lake Michigan
Green Bay
Lake Huron
Saginaw Bay
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
St. Mary's River
St. Clair River
Lake St. Clair
Detroit River
Niagara River
St. Lawrence
River
Pollutant
PCBs, chlordane,
and mercury
PCBs, chlordane,
DDT, dieldrin,
and mercury
PCBs and pesticides
PCBs
PCBs and dioxins
PCBs and chlordane
PCBs, dioxins, and
chlordane
Mercury
PCBs and mercury
PCBs and mercury
PCBs and mercury
PCBs and dioxins
PCBs
Restrictions'
Lake trout, chinook salmon, and walleye
Lake trout, coho salmon, chinook salmon,
brown trout, and walleye
Splake
Brown trout, lake trout, and rainbow
trout
Rainbow trout and brown trout




Walleye
Freshwater drum and gizzard shad
Walleye, white bass, smallmouth bass,
white perch, carp, rock bass, largemouth
bass, bluegill, freshwater drum,
carpsucker, catfish, and northern pike
Freshwater drum
Carp and smalhnouth bass
All fish
'•'.'. '• m Not Eat ;.-• • •
Lake trout over 30", walleye over
26", catfish, northern pike, and
white sucker
Lake trout over 23", chinook
salmon over 32", brown trout
over 22", carp, and catfish
Lake trout, brook trout, rainbow
trout, chinook salmon, brown trout,
splake over 16", northern pike,
walleye, white bass, and carp
Brown trout over 21" and rainbow
trout over 21"
Carp and catfish
Carp and catfish
American eel, catfish, lake trout,
chinook salmon, coho salmon,
rainbow trout, brown trout


Carp
Muskie, sturgeon, and catfish
over 22"
Carp
Channel catfish, American eel,
lake trout, chinook salmon,
rainbow trout, coho salmon,
and brown trout
Channel catfish, American eel,
chinook salmon, brown trout,
lake trout, coho salmon over 21",
and rainbow trout over 25"
*Data for this table are taken from Reference 13.
Restrictions: Nursing mothers, pregnant women, women who anticipate bearing children, female children of any age, and male
 children age 15 or under should not eat fish taken in these locations.  Other persons should limit their consumption to one meal
 per week and follow preparation and cooking recommendations.
26

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                                                                   Chapter Three
                              Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
Table 4. Current Fishing Advisories in Selected Great Waters*
Waterbody
Chesapeake Bay
(Maryland)
Chesapeake Bay
(District of Columbia)
Lake Champlain
Advisories
Chlordane: Black crappie and carp from Lake Roland; channel
catfish and American eel from Baltimore Harbor and Back River
Chlordane: Potomac River
PCBs: Potomac River
Vermont and New York
PCBs: Lake trout over 25 in.
Mercury: Walleye over 19 in.
Cumberland Bay only
PCBs: American eel, Brown bullhead
aData for this table are taken from References 23 through 39. Includes information for the
 selected pollutants of concern only.
          2. To What Extent Does Atmospheric Deposition Contribute
             to Overall Exposure to Toxic Chemicals in the Great Waters?
             Current understanding of the extent to which atmospheric deposition
             contributes to overall exposure is limited because overall exposure to
             toxic water pollutants has not been fully quantified and because
             complete and accurate information on all pollutant inputs and out-
             puts is not available. For example, the presence of pesticides, such as
             toxaphene, that have never been used extensively in the Great Lakes
             region can be attributed  primarily to atmospheric deposition. Similarly,
             reductions in lead concentrations in fresh water fish have been attrib-
             uted to decreases in lead emissions from  motor vehicles, suggesting the
             importance of atmospheric deposition for  exposure.40 On the other
             hand, many pollutants such as 2,3,7,8-TCDD are derived from several
             sources, and determining how much comes from atmospheric deposition
             alone  is difficult.

          Current Understanding of Effects
                Much of the ecological effects information presented in this section is
          based on observed effects from field studies in which ecological effects data
          were correlated with pollutants present in the environment. This informa-
          tion generally is supported by laboratory study data, as detailed in the
          technical contractor report.8 Because of the limited observed effects data
          for humans and the difficulties in obtaining  such data, the human health
          effects information presented also refers to data on effects in animals that
          are suggestive of potential human health effects.
                                                                            27

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                                     j;^^
                                     | ..... li:-1-"*!!.''-! ..... ; ...... pirtr^'^Ji*^! ..... W-T! ..... iirjit'Sl:*;.?'-1 ;'NJ-4'i'>ii*f;**f;!!:^j"^ii.l|}Ji'.i:J!i-''';i-v  ^•X-iV-3;.;'.'/ ,^'-': ..':vi<:.:v£:V.U4C;i;-]rijM;.
                                                                                                           "'  '               ''
                                      j-^^                                                              3 M';"';' '•":•'*; . '-??- •?-•'•' Y  i;'-.-tIJ'* 'i
                                                                            Justic
ii^f.^''™**
$K,jiki
iiili	;	iia	3	
,>;!|1' -.J i  '•  ,: i-'W" j  T'T'"'', - :.  ' ;''-•iS?^**^|L*^«•''/^^:sl••:fe"i;^!*H^•••"'^iVV'%•X'•V1"•'•'''•'•.•l ^w''?i;;t:G^V.:, :Y:..''V' '-: -'"•? Vir:V'i»'-•':!'•' •
11	          (  j;   Jfumgrfjus ^^rly'studies haveexamined ffierelationship between the cons'timp-   :
                   tion offish from the Great Lakes and observable health effects in certain subpopu-
                   lations. Subpopulations identified as especially vulnerable to exposure to persistent
                   toxic substances in the Great Lakes include: pregnant and nursing females (who are
                   more vulnerable to effects), sport anglers, Native Americans, and the urban poor
                   (who have high fish consumption for reasons of economic need or cultural tradition).41
                   This makes environmental justice an important issue.        v

                        Examples of study results:

                        • In 1990, a study entitled "Fish Consumption Patterns and Blood Mercury
                           Levels in Wisconsin Chippewa Indians" was conducted by the Center for
                           Disease Control to investigate Wood mercury levels among Wisconsin's
                           Qjibwa population. Of the 357.acfulfs (from five Ojibwa tribes) tested, 64 were
                           ••"*	''i'l';;l"i'	''•;™"«T-»'^V---' -found to have .blood mercury levels in excess of 5 jig/Li.
                                               Since a report from the Institute of Medicine suggests
                                               that delayed development of infants may occur following
                                               in utero exposure to maternal blood mercury levels of
                                               5 to 10 JJ-g/L, the results of the Wisconsin Chippewa
                                               study warrant concerns for human health.41

                                               • A1989 survey of Michigan sport anglers showed a :.
                                               tendency for fish consumption to increase With age, for
                                               minority ethnic groups to consume more fish than
                                               whites, and for fish consumption to diminish as the
                                               educational level of a household increases.42

                                               • A 1992 survey of 300 Detroit riverbank anglers
                                               showed that 32% of those who ate the fish were children
                                               between the ages of 5 and 18 years, and 26% were
                                               women of childbearing age.  Minorities made up  94% of
                                               those fishing the Detroit River within the city limits,
                                               SnfeipQ^.-beipg.Ajrilgap.,Anje,ricaii. Almost 35% of the, .„,„.
                                  tr ^ieT^T^&cated&a0^ey^AiA_'aot feel adequately informed about .&,
                                  isk associated with eating fish from the Detroit River.43

                                       It should be noted that there are concerns related to methodology
                                 that can be raised with respect to many, if. not all, of these studies.
                                 These concerns led the EPA to create a Fish Contamination work
                                 group, which is writing technical guidance designed to improve the
                                 quality of such surveys.42 In addition, the Department of Health and
                                 Human Services, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, is
                                 in the process of completing a report summarizing the "Impact on
                                 Public Health of Persistent Toxic Substances in the Great Lakes
                                 Region," with a review of available studies on consumption of contami-
                                 nated fish.41

                                       Although concerns over methodology exist,  results of studies
                                 suggest that certain subpopulations will be more likely to consume
                                    later amounts of Great Lakes fish and, therefore, be more exposed to
                                    ic chemicals and their effects. These issues need  to be considered in
                                 decisionmaking on toxic substance control.

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                                                       Chapter Three
                 Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
 Ecological Effects

      Ecological effects associated with pollutants known to be present in
 atmospheric deposition are evident in numerous studies describing birth
 defects, reproductive failure, disease, and premature death in fish and
 wildlife species native to the Great Lakes.8
      In general, ecological effects of exposure to toxic pollutants can
 occur at both the individual level and the ecosystem level. Effects at the
 individual level include both cancer and noncancer effects. There is  a
 broad spectrum of noncancer effects, including changes in enzyme func-
 tioning and effects on the endocrine, immune, nervous, and reproductive
                       systems. Effects at the ecosystem level may  in-
                       clude changes in populations (e.g., reproduction
                       rates) and communities (e.g., species diversity).
                       Another effect, eutrophication, to which atmos-
                       pheric deposition  can contribute, can produce
                       both individual- and ecosystem-level effects.
                            Ecological effects associated with pollutants
                       of concern range from short-term, chemical-
                       specific effects (e.g., fish disease, wildlife disease,
                       effects on reproduction) to gradual, cumulative
                       effects (e.g., population declines, community
                       changes). Effects on the reproductive system can
                      have negative impacts both on an individual's
                      reproductive success and on the ecosystem by
                      reducing a population's rate of reproduction.  In
                      addition, most pollutants of concern bioaccumu-
                      late to high  levels in fish and fish-eating wildlife.
At these higher exposure levels, fish and  wildlife are more likely to suf-
fer various cancer and noncancer effects. The remainder of this section
briefly discusses some of the important effects of the pollutants of
concern on aquatic organisms and other wildlife.

     Effects on Aquatic Organisms and Other Wildlife. Several of
the selected pollutants of concern cause changes in enzyme functioning.
Studies have reported that the activity of enzymes responsible  for the
breakdown of foreign compounds is  greatly increased by most of the
chemicals of concern. In fish, the increased activity of these enzymes has
been shown to result from exposure to PCBs and PAHs (PAHs are a
subset of POM). In birds, "wasting"  syndrome (i.e., the condition in
which an animal slowly loses body weight until it can no longer sustain
itself) has been related to altered enzyme activity resulting from expo-
sure to environmental pollutants.
     Effects on system functioning  are reflected in findings of deficien-
cies in the immune system of beluga whales during a long-term study in
the St. Lawrence River (located in the Great Lakes basin). This study
indicated that these populations of beluga whales have significantly
higher tissue concentrations of PCBs, DDT, and other toxic chemicals
                                                                 29

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                than other marine mammal populations. Researchers attributed the
                                                generally poor health of the St. Lawrence beluga whales to suppressed
                                                immune system activity resulting from exposure to environmental
                                                chemicals. Other studies in the Great Lakes region also have found
                                                associations between PCBs and DDT and decreased immune system
                                                function. In the Chesapeake Bay region, diminished immune response
                                                was demonstrated in bottom-dwelling fish of the Elizabeth River
                                                exposed to sediment contaminated with PAHs.
                                                       Particular concern is warranted for humans and other animals
                                                because of the effects these pollutants  have on other body systems such
                                                as the nervous system (including behavioral effects) and endocrine sys-
                                                tem. Recent data indicate that effects to these systems may occur at
                                                very low exposure  levels. For example, populations of Great Lakes
                                                herring gulls, Forster's terns, and ring-billed gulls have exhibited behav-
                                                ioral changes such as female-female pairings, which  result in abnormal
                                                incubation activities and nesting behavior, including nest abandonment.
                                                Exposures to pollutants of concern have resulted in effects on the endo-
                                                crine system such  as thyroid disorders, loss of reproductive functions in
                                                certain species, deficiencies in hormones such as insulin,  and changes in
                                                reproductive success related to hormone function.
                                                      Effects on the overall health of individual aquatic organisms are
                                                reflected in reports of skin and liver cancers in fish and beluga whales.
                                                In some cases, these cancers have been attributed to concentrations of
                                                         PAHs. In one study of stranded beluga whales in the St.
                                                         Lawrence River, tumors were discovered in 40 percent of the
                                                         whales examined. In another study in the Great Lakes, bottom-
                                                         feeding fish such as bullhead were found to have increased
                                                         tumor occurrence and a broad variety of tumors. These tumors
                                                         were linked to exposure to PAHs.
                                                              Effects on Great Waters ecosystems are evident in
                                                         changes in fish communities present in the Great Lakes and
                                                         Chesapeake Bay and population declines in many fish species.
                                                         Another indicator of ecosystem effects is the drastic change in
                                                         bottom-dwelling communities in the Great Lakes.38 Exposure of
                                                         these communities to toxic chemicals has resulted in significant
                                                         changes in species diversity and populations.38 In addition,
                                                         populations of bottom-dwelling invertebrates have shown higher
                                                         frequencies of deformed mouth parts and head capsules.38
                                                         Changes  in the ecosystem are reflected in other wildlife also.38
                                                         Bald eagles, herring gulls, and Forster's terns in the  Great
                                                         Lakes region have undergone significant population declines
                                                         since the 1960s.38 Only in recent years, as concentrations of
                                                         water pollutants in the Great Lakes have declined, have some
                                                         species (e.g., bald eagles) begun to recover.4
 30

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                                                     Chapter Three
                 Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
     Reproductive Effects. Effects on reproduction include embryo
toxicity, hatching success, abnormalities in offspring, parental behavior
change, and changes in mating. These effects are often accompanied by
higher concentrations of PCBs, DDT, dieldrin, and other chlorinated
compounds in animals. Specific effects noted in various species include
reduced fertility, reduced hatchability, reduced survival of offspring,
impaired hormone activity, changed adult sexual behavior, and sparser
shoreline populations relative to inland populations. Pollutants of con-
             cern that have been linked with reproductive impairment
             include toxic metals (e.g., cadmium, mercury, and lead),
             lindane, PCBs, DDT/DDE, dieldrin, and 2,3,7,8-TCDD.
                  Usually, observed reproductive effects cannot be
             linked conclusively to specific pollutants; however, link-
             ages often are made through similarities of effects across
             species and geographic locations. For example, eggshell
             thinning in a number of bird species and associated repro-
             ductive loss are linked to DDT in the 1960s and 1970s,
             and decreases in environmental concentrations of DDT
             have resulted in population recoveries. However, popula-
             tions in certain regions of the Great Lakes still exhibit
             reproductive failure. For example, bald eagle populations
             near the Great Lakes show much lower reproductive
             success than populations inland. Many eggs in shoreline
nests contain lethal concentrations of PCBs, DDE, and dieldrin, result-
ing in bald eagle reproduction rates too low to maintain a population.
In laboratory studies, mink that were fed PCB-contaminated fish
responded with decreased reproduction and lower offspring survival.
PCB levels in the fish used in that study were similar to those found in
some regions of the Great Lakes.

     Eutrophication. Eutrophication, which refers to the ability of a
waterbody to produce organic material, is a natural process that takes
place over geologic periods of time, but which can be accelerated by
anthropogenic additions of nutrients (see Figure 6). Eutrophic lakes,
which occur when nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus are
present in excess amounts, are characterized by very high productivity
and by high organic content from the decay of plants and recycling of
carbon. In freshwater lakes, concentrations of phosphorus, which has
only minor atmospheric inputs, generally are limited and therefore
control productivity. Atmospheric deposition is not thought to be a major
factor in eutrophication of freshwater lakes.
     In coastal waters, nitrogen, which can have significant atmos-
pheric inputs in the  form of various nitrogen compounds, generally is
the nutrient that controls eutrophication.
                                                                31

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
     Natural Eutrophication
    Man-induced Eutrophication
 I
,
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                                                                                                              Chapter Three
                                                                      Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
 Table 5.  Potential Human Health Effects* Associated with Pollutants of Concern1"
Pollutant*
Cadmium
and compounds
Chlordane
DDT/DDE
Dieldrin
Hexachloro-
benzene
a-HCH1
Lindane
Lead and
compounds
Mercury
and compounds
PCBs
Polycyclic
organic matter
2,3,7,8-TCDF
2,3,7,8-TCDD
Toxaphene
Potential Effects on Human Health0
Cancer6
Probable11
Probableh
Probable11
Probable11
Probable11
Probable11
Probable'
Probable11

Probable11
Probable11
Not classifiable11
Probable3
Probable11
Reproductive/
. Restrictions*
•
•
•
•
•

•
(y-HCH)
•k
•
•
•
•
•
•
Neurological/
Behavioral
•
•
•
•
•h

•
•k
•
•


•' .
•
Immuno-
logical
•
•
' •
•
«

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Endocrine

•

•
•


•
•
•

•
•
•
Other
Noncancerg
Respiratory and
kidney toxicity
Liver toxicity11
Liver toxicity11
Liver toxicity11
Liver toxicityh
Kidney and liver
toxicity
Kidney and liver
• toxicity11
Kidney toxicityk
Kidney toxicity
Liver toxicity
Blood cell
toxicity
Liver toxicity
Integument
toxicity1
Cardiovascular
effects; liver
toxicityf
aThese data are based on a compilation of results from both human and animal studies. Potential for effects will depend on the level
 and duration of exposure and the sensitivity of the exposed organism.
bWhere footnoted, data for this table are taken both from EPA sources 48'54 and the applicable Agency for Toxic Substances Disease
 Registry (ATSDR) Toxicological Profile 14-22'24-26-55; otherwise, all data are taken from the applicable ATSDR lexicological
 Profile alone.
°For this table, a chemical was considered to induce an effect if human or laboratory mammal data indicating a positive result were
 available. Blanks mean that no data indicating a positive result were found in the references cited (not necessarily that the chemical
 does not cause the effect).
dNitrogen compounds are not included in this table because they are considered a pollutant of concern only for eutrophication.
e A chemical is classified as a "probable human carcinogen" when there is limited or no evidence of human carcinogenicity from
 epidemiologic studies but sufficient evidence of carcinogenicity in animals (corresponds to EPA weight-of-evidence category B).
 A chemical is classified as "not classifiable as to human carcinogenicity" when there is inadequate human and animal evidence
 of carcinogenicity or when no data are available (corresponds to EPA weight-of-evidence category D).
f Data from the applicable EPA Health Effects Assessment (HEA) document.60-53
gThis is only a sample of other noncancer effects that may occur as a result of chronic exposure to the pollutant. Additional adverse
 human health effects may be associated with each chemical.
hData from EPA's Integrated Risk Information System.49
1 Toxicity data are available primarily for y-HCH and technical-HCH (a mixture of several HCH isomers), with limited data available
 for  a-HCH.
J Data from EPA's Health Effects Assessment Summary Tables (HEAST).48  HEAST classifies these chemicals as probable human
 carcinogens; however, these carcinogenic evaluations are currently under review by EPA.
kData from EPA's Reportable Quantity (RQ) Document for lead.54
1 Data from Biological Basis for Risk Assessment ofDioxins and Related Compounds.56
                                                                                                                          33

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                In general, few of these chemicals are acute toxicants or genetic toxi-
                                                cants at concentrations found in the Great Waters; however, several are
                                                developmental toxicants that, through low-level exposures to parents,
                                                are capable of altering the formation and function of critical physiologi-
                                                cal systems and organs in children.
                                                      Two studies in the United States looked at infants and children
                                                who were nonoccupationally exposed to PCBs during prenatal develop-
                                                ment. Both studies found nervous system deficits. One  study showed
                                                that children of mothers who  ate PCB-contaminated fish (on average
                                                2 to 3 meals per month of lake trout or salmon) from Lake Michigan
                                                before 1980 (when PCB concentrations in fish were higher than at
                                                present) exhibited deficits in cognitive function.8 In another study,
                                                children in North Carolina showed motor abnormalities at birth and
                                                psychomotor delay at up to 2  years of age.8 Both studies have generated
                                                controversy, mainly over study design, data analysis, selection of,
                                                appropriate statistical tests, and even whether psychological tests are
                                                appropriate instruments in population studies.46
                                                      In a followup to the Lake Michigan study, the same children were
                                                evaluated at 4 years of age. These children were found to have subtle
                                                deficits in short-term memory and speed of information processing,
                                                which could impact the child's ability to master basic reading and
                                                arithmetic  skills in school. An 11-year followup study on these children
                                                has begun.47

                                                Summary of Current Understanding of Effects
                                                1. What Are the Major Effects Associated with Pollutants
                                                   of Concern for Atmospheric Deposition?
                                                   The potential human health and  environmental effects associated
                                                   with the selected pollutants of concern are generally well documented.
                                                   In humans, the potential effects include cancer, reproductive and
                                                   developmental effects, neurological effects, endocrine and immune
                                                   system effects, and organ system toxicity. All of the  pollutants of
                                                   concern  (except nitrogen compounds) are known to bioaccumulate in
                                                   animals, including humans. In animals and plants, the potential
                                                   effects of individual pollutants are not always well denned; however,
                                                   linkages have been made between exposure to pollutants of concern
                                                   and observed fish and bird deaths, reproductive effects, deformities in
                                                   wildlife, and population declines.  In the environment, it is difficult to
                                                   relate a specific effect of concern (e.g., reproductive effects) to a single
                                                   pollutant, because most affected animals have elevated body concen-
                                                   trations of many pollutants. It is  known, however, that exposure to
                                                   pollutants of concern can result in serious ecological and human
                                                   health effects, particularly when animals are exposed to the pollutant
                                                   through intake of food.
34

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                                                     Chapter Three
                 Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
    In addition, it is well established that nitrogen is usually the limiting
    nutrient controlling eutrophication in coastal waterbodies and that
    eutrophication in these systems can cause severe system-wide ecologi-
    cal effects.

 2.  What Is the Contribution of Atmospheric Deposition
    to Adverse Human Health and Environmental Effects?
    The relationship between adverse effects of toxic pollutants and
    atmospheric deposition is not well understood. Some correlations and
    linkages between specific pollutants of concern and effects in the
    Great Waters can be established. Yet, at this time, quantifying the
    contribution of atmospheric deposition of each pollutant of concern to
    ecological and human health effects is not possible. For example, a
    pollutant may produce reproductive effects at a given concentration
    under certain exposure conditions, but the pollutant present in a
    waterbody generally is derived from many sources, and the link
    between an observed reproductive effect and atmospheric deposition
    is very difficult to determine.

 Comparisons with Water Quality Benchmarks

      As one means of assessing the significance of contamination of the
 Great Waters caused by the selected pollutants of concern, available
 water sampling data can be compared with various water quality crite-
 ria. Such comparisons are consistent with requirements in section
 112(m) of the 1990 Amendments for EPA to assess  the contribution
 of atmospheric deposition to exceedances of certain water quality stan-
 dards and criteria. This section first describes several sets of relevant
 water qualify benchmarks—EPA's national ambient water quality crite-
 ria (AWQQ), EPA's recently proposed Great Lakes water quality criteria
 (pGLWQC), and the U.S.-Canadian Great Lakes water quality objectives
 (GLWQOs)—and then summarizes how the available  Great Waters
 sampling data compare with the criteria. Because of limited sampling
 information for many of the selected pollutants of concern in Great Wa-
 ters other than the Great Lakes, this summary focuses primarily on the
 Great Lakes.
      This section compares water sampling data with water quality
 benchmarks, rather than comparing sediment contamination data or
 biological contamination data to appropriate benchmarks, for two main
 reasons: (1) the specific emphasis  of section 112(m) requirements on
 water quality standards and benchmarks, and (2) the  limited availabil-
 ity  of Federal or other widely accepted numerical benchmarks for sedi-
 ments or living organisms for the selected pollutants of concern. How-
 ever, because of the strong tendency of most of the selected pollutants of
 concern to bind to sediments and to bioaccumulate,  comparisons of sedi-
ment and biological contamination levels to  appropriate benchmarks,
where such benchmarks are available, has advantages over comparisons
                                                               35

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                based on water contamination levels. First, for most of the pollutants,
                                                sediment and biological contamination levels generally are much higher,
                                                and therefore easier to measure, than water contamination levels. Simi-
                                                larly, the levels of concern (i.e., the benchmarks) for these pollutants are
                                                           generally much lower for water than for sediments or for
                                                           living organisms, resulting in the need to be able to measure
                                                           very low water concentrations to ensure that criteria or stan-
                                                           dards are not being exceeded.  For example, the newly pro-
                                                           posed Great Lakes water quality criterion for 2,3,7,8-TCDD is
                                                           9.6 x 10"6 parts per trillion (9.6 x 10"12  milligrams per liter),
                                                           an extremely low level. Second, sediment and biological con-
                                                           tamination levels better reflect the overall pollutant loading
                                                           over time in a waterbody because of the tendency of the  se-
                                                           lected pollutants of concern to accumulate in sediments and
                                                           in living organisms. Therefore, the absence of water quality
                                                           benchmark exceedances for pollutants that have a strong
                                                           tendency to bind to sediments and to bioaccumulate does not
                                                           necessarily indicate the absence of contamination at levels of
                                                           potential human health or ecological concern.
                                                                Maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) are "maximum
                                                           permissible level[s] of a contaminant in water which is [are]
                                                           delivered to any user of a public water system."57 These
                                                           levels are developed under the Safe Drinking Water Act, and
                                                           the goal in developing MCLs is to approach as closely as
                                                           possible ideal human health-based levels while still taking
                                                           into account the cost of achieving the levels as well as the
                                                           availability of technology to achieve them. At this time, some
                                                           chemicals do not have MCLs.  Few violations of existing levels
                                                           have been found in Great Lakes drinking water systems,
                                                           and,  for the pollutants that do exceed their MCL, the distri-
                                                           bution  system rather than the water source may be the
                                                           principal cause.31
                                                                AWQC are designed to protect humans and freshwater
                                                 and saltwater animals and plants from harmful effects resulting from
                                                 both chronic and acute exposures.58 The development of AWQC is an
                                                 ongoing process that is meant to reflect current knowledge on health
                                                 and welfare effects, dispersal of pollutants across  media, and effects on
                                                 animal and plant  communities and on reproduction. Several different
                                                 AWQC values may be published for an individual chemical, including
                                                 values designed to protect freshwater aquatic organisms (for both acute
                                                 and chronic exposure), marine aquatic organisms  (for both acute and
                                                 chronic exposure), and humans (for chronic exposure through consump-
                                                 tion of both fish and drinking water and for chronic exposure through
                                                 fish consumption only). EPA's national AWQC, which are based entirely
                                                 on scientific data, are provided as guidelines and are not directly
                                                 applicable as enforceable water quality standards. Rather, AWQC are
                                                 intended to be  used by States as a basis for developing regulations.
36

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                                                      Chapter Three
                 Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
 Applicable national AWQC are available for all of the selected pollut-
 ants of concern except 2,3,7,8-TCDF and nitrogen compounds.
      In April 1993, EPA proposed and requested public comment on
 new water quality criteria specifically for the waters in the Great Lakes
 system.29 When the criteria are made final, they will form the basis for
 new water quality standards to be issued by States in the Great Lakes
 basin. Criteria are proposed to protect aquatic life (for both acute and
 chronic exposure), wildlife (for exposure through food webs), and
 humans (for chronic exposure through consumption of both fish and
 drinking water and through water-related recreation). The proposed
 methods for deriving these criteria differ in some respects from the
 methods used for deriving national AWQC,  and, in general, the  proposed
 Great Lakes criteria are lower to account for bioaccumulation.
      The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1978 is an agree-
 ment between the United States and Canada that adopted the principle
 of "virtual elimination" of persistent toxic substances to the Great Lakes
 (i.e., a goal of zero discharge).59 For a number of chemicals, the
 Agreement includes specific GLWQOs that are set to protect the most
 sensitive user of the water among humans,  aquatic life, and wildlife. For
 other persistent toxic chemicals, such as hexachlorobenzene, no specific
 GLWQO has been established; for such chemicals, concentrations in
 water and in aquatic organisms should be lower than detection levels.
 Specific GLWQOs are available for 8 of the  15 selected pollutants of
 concern, and recommended values are available for four additional ones.
      The table in Appendix B  shows which of the selected pollutants of
 concern have potentially exceeded national AWQC, pGLWQC, and
 GLWQOs, based on Great Lakes sampling data since 1980. The  table
 provides comparisons of maximum open water (i.e., away from shore
 and not as strongly influenced by direct discharge) concentrations of the
 pollutants with their respective water quality benchmarks. In interpret-
 ing these results, it is important to remember that the sampling data
 used in the comparisons are maximum values (generally based on a
 total of 10 to 30 samples) and are not necessarily representative of
 ambient water concentrations throughout the lake. Dieldrin, mercury,
 and PCBs exceeded criteria in all five Great Lakes, while DDT/DDE
 exceeded criteria in all but Lake Superior (mercury and PCBs almost
 always exceeded more than one of the applicable criteria). In addition,
 hexachlorobenzene exceeded criteria in Lakes Erie and Ontario, and
 cadmium exceeded criteria in Lake Erie. Thus, open water concentra-
 tions of several pollutants of concern in the Great Lakes—which are
 expected to be substantially lower than maximum near-shore concentra-
 tions—have potentially exceeded applicable water quality criteria at
 some locations in the recent past. Moreover,  maximum concentrations
 of most  of the other selected pollutants (i.e., those that did not exceed
criteria) in most of the lakes were within a factor of 10 of the lowest
applicable criterion, indicating contamination that approaches levels
of concern.
                                                                37

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                     Sampling data for the selected pollutants of concern in Lake
                                                Champlain are considerably more limited than for the Great Lakes.
                                                Except for lead, the sparse sampling data available generally indicate
                                                that these pollutants, if present at all, are below detection limits (i.e.,
                                                below the levels that can be detected by the sampling and analysis
                                                methods used).60 For lead, concentrations have exceeded applicable
                                                water quality criteria at some locations in the recent past.60
                                                     No widespread concentrations of metals exceed EPA water quality
                                                criteria in the mainstem Chesapeake Bay. Yet, a limited number of
                                                measured concentrations in the tidal tributaries  to the Chesapeake Bay
                                                exceeded EPA water quality criteria and State water quality standards
                                                for cadmium and lead (as well as for copper and zinc). No exceedances
                                                of water quality criteria or standards were reported for the remaining
                                                air pollutants  of concern within Chesapeake Bay.39

                                                Case Studies of Exposure and Effects
                                                     As illustrations of exposure and effects resulting from  pollutants
                                                in the  Great Waters, the following case studies are presented. These
                                                case studies look at PCB concentrations in the food web in Lake
                                                Ontario, the effects to humans from exposure to mercury through intake
                                                of contaminated fish, the effects associated with low-level exposures to
                                                pollutants of concern in Forster's terns, and the  effects of nitrogen load-
                                                ings on Chesapeake Bay. In reviewing these case studies, remember
                                                that the overall contribution of atmospheric deposition to exposure
                                                levels and effects is generally not well understood.

                                                Subtle Effects Are Associated with Exposure to Low Levels
                                                of Pollutants of Concern
                                                      Exposure to  low levels of many pollutants of concern may result
                                                in ecological or human health effects that are not easy to recognize. The
                                                effects from high-dose exposures, such as acute toxicity and  death, are
                                                far easier to observe than those from low-dose exposures, which often
                                                are delayed, long-term effects. In offspring, these effects may be the
                                                result of low-level exposures to parents. As a result, subtle health effects
                                                in wildlife and human populations resulting from low-level exposures
                                                could be overlooked as conditions in the environment improve and expo-
                                                 sure levels decrease. This point is illustrated in the following study of a
                                                 Forster's tern colony (fish-eating birds) in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
                                                      In 1983 and 1988, research teams studied the reproductive suc-
                                                 cess of a colony of Forster's terns nesting on a waste disposal facility in
                                                 Green Bay as compared with a control population that was  nesting on
                                                 an inland lake and that was not dependent on food sources  in the Great
                                                 Lakes. In 1983, tern offspring from the Green Bay colony experienced
                                                 lower hatch rates  of eggs, lower chick body weight, lower rates of chicks
                                                 learning to fly, and decreased parental care  as compared with the
                                                 control colony. Within 17 days after hatching, 35 percent of the chicks
                                                 had died, and the birds had abandoned the area. Researchers linked
 38

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                                                            Chapter Three
                        Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
 New Reports on the Effects
 of "Environmental Hormones"

      Mounting evidence indicates that many chemicals, including DDT, lindane,
 atrazine, PCBs, dioxin, and mercury, that have been released to the environment
 can disturb the hormonal (or endocrine) systems of humans and wildlife. Two
 recent scientific articles  describe the major concerns with the release of these
 chemicals, often called "environmental hormones"—the variety of noncancer
 effects, such as developmental and male and female reproductive impacts, linked
 to chemicals that mimic estrogens (female hormones) and other hormones, and a
 proposed link between exposure to environmental estrogens and breast cancer.

      Disruptions to the endocrine system, especially during development in
 utero or in very early life, and of the organs that respond to endocrine signals
 are of concern because the effects caused by exposure during an organism's
 development are permanent and irreversible, and they may go undetected until
 an organism reaches adulthood and, for example, tries to reproduce.61

      Environmental hormones work by being accepted by organs as a hormone,
 but without producing appropriate effects. Exposure of fetuses to these chemicals
 can profoundly disturb organ development. Organs that appear to be at particu-
 lar risk for developmental abnormalities are those affected by female/male hor-
 mones, including both female and male reproductive organs. In both sexes, the
                         external genitals, brain, skeleton, thyroid, liver, kid-
                         ney,  and immune system are also potential targets
                         for endocrine-disrupting chemicals.61

                              In wildlife, exposure to endocrine-disrupting
                         chemicals has been associated with decreased fertility
                         in birds, fish,  shellfish, and mammals; decreased
                         hatching success in fish, birds, and turtles; demascu-
                         linization and feminization of male fish, birds, and
                         mammals; defeminization and masculinization of
                         female fish and birds; and alteration of immune func-
                         tion in birds and mammals.61
                              In laboratory studies, mammary (breast) cancer
                         has been linked with environmental estrogens, such
                         as organic compounds (e.g., DDT or dioxins) and
                         polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). In addition,
recent epidemiologic studies have found that breast fat and blood fats of women
with breast cancer contain significantly elevated levels of some chlorinated or-
ganic compounds compared with noncancer controls. Breast cancer, in the major-
ity of cases, is thought to arise from interactions between genetic and environ-
mental factors. It is hypothesized that environmental estrogens increase the risk
of breast cancer by mechanisms that include interaction with breast-cancer sus-
ceptibility genes.62
                                                                      39

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
 ;:: Sculpin 1.7
  >»**•
  Shrimp 0.09
 Figure 7. Biomagnification of PCBs
 in the Lake Ontario food web, 1982.32
 PCBs shown in parts per million.
these effects to elevated concentrations of PCBs in the chicks and eggs.
In 1988, the median concentrations of PCBs in the Green Bay colony
had decreased significantly from those measured in the 1983 study.
During the first 17 days of the 1988 study, certain types  of effects for
the Green Bay colony—including hatching success, weight gain, and the
rate of chicks learning to fly—were comparable to those for the control
             group in 1983. However, on day 18, chicks  began to show
             signs of "wasting"  and by day 31, 35 percent of the young
             had died—the same percentage that died within 17 days
             in 1983. To date, "wasting" appears to be the most sensi-
             tive effect in Forster's terns resulting from low-level expo-
             sure to PCBs, and it appears to be delayed as exposure is
             reduced. Also, because of the delayed onset of the effects,
             if the 1988 study had been conducted for only the same
             period of time as the 1983 study, incorrect conclusions
             about environmental recovery would likely have been
             drawn.

             PCBs Concentrate in the Food Web
                  PCBs are a class of compounds that  are persistent
             in the environment and are known to be toxic to humans
             and ecosystems. PCBs are associated with cancer, neuro-
             logical effects, and effects on reproduction  and develop-
ment in humans.  In wildlife, they have been associated with premature
deaths, effects on reproduction, and immune system effects. Because of
low ambient concentrations in water, the importance of exposure routes
other than drinking water should be considered when assessing the
exposure and effects
of PCBs.
     The most important route of exposure to PCBs is through intake
of food following biomagnification through the  food web.  This is illus-
trated by the concentrations of PCBs in plants and animals in the food
web in Lake Ontario (see Figure 7). Floating microscopic plants (phyto-
plankton) and animals (zooplankton) take in and retain PCBs. Fish then
eat these plankton, taking in  the chemicals present in the plankton.
When an animal cannot break down or eHminate the PCBs it takes in,
the PCBs accumulate in the animal's fatty tissue. Soon,  the animal has
higher concentrations than the surrounding environment. The process
leading to increasing concentrations of chemicals at higher levels of the
food web is known as biomagnification. Biomagnification continues up
the food web as predator fish feed on smaller fish, and as birds and
mammals (including humans) then feed on predator fish.
Biomagnification  results in far greater concentrations of PCBs in ani-
mals than would  be expected based strictly on concentrations in the
water.
 40

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                                                                                                     Chapter Three
                                                                Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
       1,000
   f
 •S,
         100 -
  8,6
  g'S
 Present WHO
 "Safe Level"
 (471)
Suggested Range
for "Safe Level"
Mean U.S. Intake
  Intake Exceeded by 1% —
       of U.S. Population
  Intake Exceeded by 0.1 to 0.2%
              of U.S. Population
Figure 8.  U.S. daily intakes
of methylmercury versus World
Health Organization "Safe Levels."63
             Current "Safe Levels" for Mercury May Not
             Be Protective of Human Health
                  Mercury exists in the environment in three forms:
             metallic mercury, methylmercury (and other organic
             forms), and mercury salts. Metallic mercury is poorly
             absorbed by the body,  and high doses in humans may
             result in no  effects.38 Methylmercury and mercury salts, on
             the other hand, have been demonstrated to cause serious
             human health effects.38 Methyhnercury is of greatest
             concern because  it is readily absorbed into body organs and
             tends to bioaccumulate to high levels in animals, including
             fish and humans.
                  Exposure of humans to mercury may result in kidney
             damage, damage to the brain and nervous system, and
             developmental effects.  Prenatal exposure to methylmercury
             is of special concern because recent research indicates that
             prenatal exposure to methylmercury concentrations fivefold
             to tenfold lower than current World Health Organization
             (WHO) "safe levels" may result in subtle neurological
             effects in children, such as abnormal reflexes and delayed
             motor skills  development.63 As shown in Figure 8, 0.1 to
             0.2  percent of the U.S. population (about 250,000 to
             500,000 people) currently exceed the WHO "safe level" for
             daily methylmercury intake. Based on the recent data
             assessing the effects associated with prenatal exposure,
	   however, a lower limit to protect from developmental
             effects may be  warranted. As shown in Figure 8, a new
 "safe level" of about one-tenth the current level has been suggested. It is
 evident that a substantial fraction of the U.S. population exceeds  this
 suggested new level. The National Institute of Environmental Health
 Sciences is  performing studies to determine whether a lower limit
 should be established.
      Mercury is found naturally in the environment, and it is also
 released from human activities such as fossil fuel combustion, waste
 incineration, and other industrial processes. Subsequent atmospheric
 deposition may lead to increased concentrations in aquatic ecosystems.
 Human exposure to mercury generally is through the ingestion offish,
 which bioaccumulate mercury in muscle tissue.63 Anthropogenic releases
 of mercury, combined with naturally occurring mercury and the
 bioaccumulation potential of mercury, may result in exposure of human
 residents in the Great Lakes basin to levels of mercury that exceed the
 current WHO and EPA guidelines for fish consumption. This risk is
 greatest for population groups that consume affected fish from the Great
 Lakes, such as some American Indian tribes.64
                                                                                                               41

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                Nitrogen is the Nutrient Controlling
                                                Eutrophication in Chesapeake Bay
                                                                       Eutrophication has been recognized as a
                                                                  problem in the Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, and
                                                                  coastal waters for over 30 years. In the Great Lakes
                                                                  and other fresh waterbodies, phosphorus was recog-
                                                                  nized as the nutrient of primary concern, and efforts
                                                                  to reduce phosphorus loadings, such as removal of
                                                                  phosphate from detergents and improved sewage
                                                                  treatment techniques, resulted in substantial
                                                                  phosphorus reduction in waterbodies and improved
                                                                  water quality.40
                                                                       However, in coastal waters such as the Chesa-
                                                                  peake Bay, decreases in phosphorus loadings have
                                                                  not resulted in significant decreases in eutrophica-
                                                                  tion. Researchers now identify nitrogen, in forms
                                                                  such as ammonium and nitrates, as the nutrient of
                                                                  primary concern in the Chesapeake Bay and many
                                                                  other coastal waters. Nitrogen loadings cause
                                                increased eutrophication in waterbodies, and this can result in oxygen
                                                depletion in the water or reduced oxygen levels, nuisance algal blooms,
                                                dieback of underwater aquatic plants, and reduced populations of fish
                                                and shellfish. This is significant in the  context of atmospheric deposition
                                                because up to 40 percent of nitrogen in Chesapeake Bay is estimated to
                                                result from atmospheric  deposition.40 Thus,  atmospheric deposition
                                                appears to be contributing significantly to eutrophication problems in
                                                Chesapeake Bay and other coastal waters.
                                                     Chesapeake Bay has experienced a 20 percent decrease in water
                                                column phosphorus concentrations since 1984, but water concentrations
                                                of nitrogen have remained relatively constant.40 During this same time,
                                                dissolved oxygen levels, an indicator of recovery from eutrophication,
                                                have not increased. Eutrophication in Chesapeake Bay has contributed
                                                to depleted fish and shellfish stocks, loss offish and plant habitats, and
                                                losses of underwater aquatic plants related  to increased algal growth
                                                and decreased light penetration. Studies to improve the health of Chesa-
                                                peake Bay focus on understanding how nitrogen cycles through the bay
                                                and on techniques for decreasing inputs of nitrogen compounds into this
                                                waterbody. Recently, tributary basin nutrient reduction goals were
                                                established, which has focused attention on atmospheric deposition of
                                                nitrogen as a potential source  of controllable loadings.65

                                                Conclusions Related to Effects
                                                     Section 112(m) of the 1990 Amendments directs EPA to assess the
                                                environmental and human health effects of pollutants that are attribut-
                                                able to atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters and to determine
                                                whether pollutant loadings to the Great Waters cause or contribute to
 42

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                                                     Chapter Three
                 Answering the Scientific'Questions of Section 112(m)
violations of drinking water standards or water quality standards. This
section reviewed some of the principal ecological and human health
effects associated with selected pollutants of concern in the Great
Waters. The following conclusions are drawn from this review of
currently available scientific information.
1. Some ecological effects and human health effects caused by
   pollutants that are present in atmospheric deposition to
   waterbodies are subtle, result from long-term exposures to
   low levels of pollutants, and may be delayed in onset and
   even occur over multiple generations.

   The effects associated with the selected pollutants of concern often
   result from long-term exposures to one or more pollutants present at
   low concentrations. (For example, long-term exposure to low levels of
   mercury may result in kidney or nervous system damage. Because of
   gradual exposure and bioaccumulation in the body, the onset of these
   effects may go undetected.) Similarly, exposure to many pollutants of
   concern may have little or no measurable effect on the adult but may
   result in developmental effects in the fetus or developing newborn.
   For example, maternal exposures to certain pollutants may be  passed
   to a newborn through feeding or passed to a fetus across  the pla-
   centa, potentially resulting in adverse effects in the infant or in the
   fetus, both of which are more sensitive than the adult to environmen-
   tal pollutants. In addition, effects that have a delayed onset may
   occur, and these delayed effects are often extremely difficult to detect.

2. Noncancer effects of the pollutants of concern are of great
   concern, particularly for animals higher up in the food web.
   Laboratory studies indicate that the selected pollutants of concern
   have a wide range of effects on both wildlife and humans. Field stud-
   ies indicate that certain Great Waters pollutants can cause immune
   system  effects, effects on reproduction, and neurological effects  in
   wildlife, thereby signalling concern that humans may also be exposed
   to levels that cause these and other effects. Though many of the
   pollutants are probable carcinogens, most cause noncancer effects
   that are also of significant concern. For example, a majority of the
   15 selected pollutants of concern may cause harder-to-detect develop-
   mental  effects, such as delayed development of motor skills. Addition-
   ally, many of the pollutants of concern may cause brain or nervous
   system  damage. All of the pollutants of concern also can affect the
   endocrine system, which may in turn affect reproduction,  nervous
   system function, and development of the immune system. These
   effects may be as devastating to an individual person or animal as
   cancer and may also have population impacts. Effects may also occur
   after little or no latency period and may occur at very low exposures.
                                                               43

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                 Further, because exposure is cumulative, the potential for impacts on
                                                 the population is extremely high.

                                              3. Though atmospheric deposition is a significant pathway into
                                                 the Great Waters for some toxic pollutants, the relationship
                                                 between atmospheric deposition and the effects on humans
                                                 and ecosystems is not clearly understood.
                                                 Recent research has indicated that atmospheric deposition is a sig-
                                                 nificant contributor of some toxic pollutants to the Great Waters;
                                                 however, the relationship—especially the quantitative relationship—
                                                 between atmospheric deposition and effects in (or risks to) humans,
                                                 animals, and plants, for most pollutants, is not clear. Many pollut-
                                                 ants of concern for atmospheric deposition also have a long history of
                                                 discharges to the Great Waters, and current levels of many of these
                                                 may be the result of recycling from the sediments. Thus, the
                                                 specific contribution of atmospheric deposition to exposure and
                                                 effects cannot be  quantified at this time.

                                              4. In many temperate estuarine systems, such as Chesapeake
                                                 Bay, atmospheric deposition of nitrogen  compounds is a
                                                 major contributor to accelerated eutrophication.
                                                 Regulations to reduce phosphorus discharges  have had limited suc-
                                                 cess in controlling eutrophication in coastal systems. Recent evidence
                                                 indicates that nitrogen is usually the limiting nutrient in temperate
                                                 estuarine systems. Moreover, for some waterbodies, such as Chesa-
                                                 peake Bay and Delaware Bay and potentially for many others, a
                                                 significant percentage of the nitrogen load is from atmospheric
                                                 deposition (see Table 8, page 55).

                                               5. Persistence in the environment, tendency to accumulate hi
                                                 animal tissue, and toxicity to humans and other organisms
                                                 are important indicators of the hazard potential of air
                                                 pollutants that are deposited to waterbodies.
                                                 For identifying air pollutants of concern, these three characteristics
                                                 are most important. Pollutants with these characteristics have the
                                                 ability to cause health effects in humans and the environment; to
                                                 biomagnify in the food web, allowing for higher exposure levels to
                                                 animals at the top of the food web; and to remain in the environment
                                                 for long periods of time, increasing the opportunity for exposure.
44

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                                                                                                     Chapter Three
                                                                 Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
            Atmospheric Transport
                                  II
        Releases from Natural        i/j'/j/,Ij,,
      and Anthropogenic Sources  Wet Deposition
 Indirect
Deposition
via Runoff
                                                 River Outflow
                                                                ^•-^.
                                             Tidal Exchange in Estuaries
                                           Chemical
                                           and Biological
                                           Reactions i
         ,  1,,  '. **"  "  " T>l
        -  " Salt Marsh Exchange
                 (Estuaries only)
                                               Bottom Dwellers
                                               "Exchange
                                     Sediment
                                     Exchange
Figure 9. Mass balance model for
lakes and estuaries.
                                        Relative Loading:  What Is the Relative Importance
                                        of Atmospheric Deposition in Pollutant Loadings to the
                                        Great Waters?
      A critical step in evaluating atmospheric deposition to the Great
Waters is to assess the extent to which hazardous air pollutants actually
enter waterbodies from the air. This type of analysis enhances our
ability to attribute adverse human health and environmental effects to
atmospheric deposition and helps make it possible to trace the air
pollutants of concern back to the sources that release them.
      Understanding the extent of atmospheric deposition requires an
analysis of the amount of a given pollutant that enters a waterbody over
some period of time, commonly referred to as the pollutant "loading." It
is necessary to analyze not only the total loading of a pollutant,  but also
the relative loading (i.e., how the loading from atmospheric deposition
compares to that from other pathways, such as groundwater seepage
and inflow from connecting surface waterbodies, where portions  of the
pollutant load may not be of atmospheric origin). Once a clear picture of
relative loading exists, the importance of atmospheric deposition to the
Great Waters can be understood and a determination can be made of
the possible measures for controlling air and water quality in an over-
all context.
     The essential framework for  evaluating the relative inputs of
chemicals to a body of water is an  input-output budget, or "mass bal-
ance" model. In such a model, the total amounts of a given chemical
that enter and exit the waterbody by various pathways are estimated.
                                Figure 9 shows the basic features of
                                a mass balance model for lakes and
                                estuaries. Pollutants can enter lakes,
                                such as one of the Great Lakes or
                                Lake Champlain, from connecting
                                streams and rivers, groundwater
                                inflow, and atmospheric deposition.
                                Pollutants can also reenter lakes
                                through release from the lake bot-
                                tom. Atmospheric deposition  occurs
                                as pollutants are carried down from
                                the air along with falling rain or
                                snow, settle onto water in the form
                                of dry particles, or transfer into the
                                water in the form of a gas. Atmo-
                                spheric deposition may occur either
                                as direct deposition (i.e., pollutants
                                are deposited directly from air to a
                                waterbody) or as indirect deposition
                                (i.e., pollutants are deposited from
                                               Air/Water
                                               Exchange DryParticle
                                                        Deposition
                                                                                                               45

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
iliiyiijiThe Mass Balance
: IIIM'ft I1" "MI !l|iiiniii	nil	mi:	i	ii*iiif:i[i«^	 UTii'viiiii <,'iiii
        f'm'ass balance model is
             _  _ 4llli«^^ i Sill!: SSriiiiii	i:	'I	>:.1"!:
       essential framework for
    estimating relative loadings
    of pollutants to a waterbody.

    The model establishes a proc-
    e& for identifying and consis-
    tently evaluating all ways
    that pollutants can enter and
    exit a waterbody.
     "i i);   ,  "'    i  , MI  i
    QnJy with a clear understand-
    ing of all inputs and outputs
    of a given pollutant can we
    begin to understand the rela-
    ^|W importance of atmos-
    pheric deposition.
                                                air to land and enter a waterbody via runoff or seepage through ground-
                                                water). Pollutant outputs from the lake include evaporation, stream and
                                                river outflow, breakdown by chemical and biological processes, settling
                                                and burial at the bottom, and seepage into groundwater. Pollutants
                                                entering surface waterbodies may be diluted by mixing and may un-
                                                dergo reactions that change their physical and chemical forms. Estuar-
                                                ies such as Chesapeake Bay differ  from lakes  in that they are semi-
                                                enclosed bodies of water where fresh water from the land mixes with
                                                salt water from the ocean. Estuarine waters have physical  and  chemical
                                                characteristics that make them different from fresh and salt waters.
                                                The features of a mass balance model for estuaries differ significantly
                                                from those of lakes because of the  importance of tidal exchanges and the
                                                influence of coastal marshes and waters.
                                                     The remainder of this section describes  chemical mass balances
                                                for the Great Waters to evaluate the relative  loading of pollutants by
                                                atmospheric deposition. The section begins by summarizing the current
                                                understanding of atmospheric deposition processes  and mass balances in
                                                surface waters. The section then presents mass balance case studies for
                                                selected pollutants and waterbodies and uses  these case studies to
                                                develop generalizations and conclusions that apply to the Great Waters
                                                as a whole.

                                                Current Understanding of Relative Loadings
                                                     A substantial body of knowledge exists  concerning atmospheric
                                                deposition processes and loadings  to surface waters. Significant addi-
                                                tional  research is required, though, to better determine, with cer-
                                                tainty, the atmospheric loadings of pollutants of concern to the Great
                                                Waters and their relative importance in causing human health and
                                                environmental effects. Table 6 provides an explanation of several scien-
                                                tific terms that are relevant to relative loadings from the atmosphere,
                                                including how airborne pollutants are brought to the  earth by "wet"
                                                and "dry" deposition processes, the degree to  which airborne pollutants
                                                are transferred "directly" versus "indirectly" to surface waterbodies, and
                                                the influence of a pollutant's chemical and physical form on deposition
                                                and cycling between environmental media.  This table  is followed by
                                                answers to four basic questions that address  the current scientific
                                                capabilities for evaluating atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters.

                                                1. Do We Have the Conceptual Understanding Required
                                                   to Estimate the Relative Atmospheric Loadings of Pollutants
                                                   to the Great Waters?
                                                   The mass balance approach, in which all pollutant loadings to, and
                                                   releases from, a waterbody are identified and estimated, provides an
                                                   appropriate conceptual framework in which to determine the relative
                                                   importance of atmospheric deposition in causing contamination in the
                                                   Great Waters. While the amounts of pollutants that enter and exit
 46

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                                                                   Chapter Three
                           Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
Table 6.  Explanation of Atmospheric Deposition Terms
     Term
 Wet deposition
 Dry deposition
 Indirect
 versus direct
 deposition
 Reentrainment,
 Resuspension
 Volatilization
 Chemical
 and physical
 forms of
 pollutants
                        Explanation
Pollutants in the atmosphere in a gaseous phase can enter water
droplets in the air by a variety of processes and be deposited to the
earth along with rain, snow, and other forms of precipitation.
Metals and organic chemicals that are bound to airborne particu-
lates also are incorporated into precipitation. Wet deposition of
gases and particles has been evaluated extensively by several inves-
tigators at several locations.
Dry particles in the air can settle onto water and land surfaces at
a rate that depends on the particle size, wind speed, and other
factors. Gaseous pollutants also can transfer from the air to the
water and land. Currently, methods for measuring dry deposition
have large uncertainties compared to methods for measuring wet
deposition,  and there are no widely accepted methods for estimat-
ing how much dry deposition occurs. Recent studies, however,
suggest that chemical transfers between air and water play an
important role in the mass balance of systems like the Great
Waters.
Air pollutants are not only deposited directly to the surface of
waterbodies, but are also deposited to watersheds and then
discharged into the waters indirectly, through stormwater runoff,
tributaries, and groundwater seepage. Where the watershed is
large relative to the open water, indirect loading can exceed direct
loading. Although indirect loadings are included as a component of
a mass balance, procedures are not available for determining  these
loadings with much certainty.
Reentrainment is the removal of deposited particles from a water
or land surface by air flow above the surface. Whether a particle
will be resuspended depends on the adhesion between the particle
and the surface, balanced against the lifting force created by wind
turbulence.
Previously deposited gaseous chemicals can be reemitted to the
atmosphere as the result of many factors, including chemical
reactions and changes in temperature or windspeed.
The chemical and physical form of a pollutant affects its mobility
in environmental media, its tendency to transfer between media,
and its toxicity. Significant aspects of pollutant forms and how
they influence pollutant behavior in the environment have been
identified. However, numerous uncertainties still exist, and
additional study of specific chemicals is needed.
                                                                               47

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                   surface waters by some pathways are difficult to quantify and require
                                                   new research initiatives, development of the mass balance framework
                                                   is straightforward.

                                                2.  Do We Currently Have Data of Sufficient Accuracy and
                                                   Precision to Estimate Relative Atmospheric Loadings
                                                   of Pollutants to the Great Waters?
                                                   With very few exceptions, the construction of a mass balance for each
                                                   pollutant has not been possible due to a lack of consistent, coherent,
                                                   and simultaneous measurements, on a pollutant by pollutant basis, of
                                                   all loadings to a waterbody. While technically possible, such inte-
                                                   grated measurements require a significant commitment in order to
                                                   generate adequate information to develop scientifically credible mass
                                                   balances.

                                                3.  Do We Have the Tools to Determine Atmospheric
                                                   Deposition Rates with Accuracy and Precision?
                                                   Methodologies of suitable accuracy and precision currently exist to
                                                   determine the rate of wet deposition of many chemicals to specific
                                                   locations in the Great Waters. For example, deposition of trace
                                                   elements and some organic pollutants during rainfall can be
                                                   adequately measured. Conversely, dry deposition of pollutants
                                                   attached to particles and the transfer of gaseous pollutants between
                                                   air and water can, at present, only be estimated by indirect methods.
                                                   Tools for accurately and precisely measuring dry deposition are not
                                                   yet available, but some are being developed.

                                                4.  What Is the Scientific View of Our Current Understanding
                                                   of the  Processes Resulting in Atmospheric Deposition?
                                                   During the past 30 years, the scientific community has recognized
                                                   the importance of atmospheric deposition in causing surface water
                                                   contamination and has developed and refined models describing the
                                                   physical and chemical processes responsible for atmospheric deposi-
                                                   tion. At present, estimates have been made of atmospheric loadings
                                                   of a few specific pollutants to a few specific waterbodies, yet uncer-
                                                   tainties are associated with these estimates. Knowledge of processes
                                                   in the atmosphere and in surface waters is not sufficient to deter-
                                                   mine, with confidence, the magnitude and impact of atmospheric
                                                   deposition of all of the pollutants of concern to all of the Great
                                                   Waters. However, specific studies do indicate that  the relative
                                                   contribution of pollutant loading from atmospheric deposition can be
                                                   significant.
 48

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                                                                                                   Chapter Three
                                                                Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                              Atmosphere: ~200kg
                                                          Volatilization
                                                          - 600-4,200 kg/yr
Atmospheric
Deposition
-167 kg/yr
                                                 River Outflow
                                                 ~ 40 kg/yr
                              ~ 20-50 kg/yr
                              Particle Settling
                              -3,000 kg/yr
                                       Recycling
                                       - 2,950 kg/yr
Water Column:
-7,200 kg
                             Sediment: ~ 5,000 kg
Figure 10. Mass balance of PCBs
in Lake Superior. Numbers presented
are approximations. Data taken from
reference 6.
 Relative Loading Case Studies

       As illustrations of relative contaminant loadings to the Great
 Waters and other similar waterbodies, mass balances are presented
 below for PCBs in Lake Superior, mercury in lakes in Wisconsin and
 Sweden, nitrogen in several Atlantic estuaries, and cadmium in Dela-
 ware Bay. To construct these mass balances, researchers used data on
 the concentration, amount, and movement of pollutants in different
 environmental media, as well as mathematical models to estimate
 pollutant transfers into and out of waterbodies over time. This process
 requires numerous assumptions and is filled with uncertainties. Never-
 theless, as summarized below, these mass balance case studies
 provide a strong indication that the relative contribution of
 pollutant loading from atmospheric deposition can be substan-
 tial, depending on the particular pollutant and waterbody.

 The Atmosphere is Both a Major Contributor
 to, and Recipient of, PCBs in Lake Superior

       Of the organic chemicals for which a mass balance can be devel-
 oped, PCBs have been studied the most because of their tendency to
 bioaccumulate and because of their persistence, widespread distribution
 in the environment, and toxicity. PCBs provide an interesting case
 study because they have been banned from further production, although
 they are still in use for limited purposes, and because they are still
 apparently being released to the air.  Several researchers have accumu-
                               lated sufficient information on the
                               amount and cycling of PCBs in Lake
                               Superior to develop a PCB budget (see
                               Figure 10). Lake Superior is the larg-
                               est of the Great Lakes, accounting for
                               more than 50 percent of the Great
                               Lakes water volume. In addition to
                               having a large surface area compared
                               to its drainage area, Lake Superior is
                               strongly influenced by atmospheric
                               interactions (for PCBs). Major inputs
                               to the lake include river flows (which
                               contain municipal and industrial
	  wastes) and atmospheric deposition.
                               PCBs may be lost from the lake by
 flow through the St. Mary's River, by settling into the bottom sedi-
 ments, by chemical or biological degradation, and by release to the air.
      Mass balance calculations indicate that atmospheric deposition
 currently contributes approximately 77 to 89  percent of the total yearly
 input of PCBs to Lake Superior. Annual atmospheric loadings (per unit
                                                                                                             49

-------
           •.apler Three
           fWgring'in.e Scientific Questions of Section 'fl2"lm)
                 "  il;"'i;:
                   .'Hi I1-1,,,
i

 Lid1;,,
 ll||lllliii
 mil	nil i	iniiiiiiiiin	',	
 f	!	i1!1!1"	'
 1	B	'»'*!	"
   	t	•	i	
            The Lake Champlain Basin
                          Canada
                                      j   f- a JWissisquoi isay
                                	1- -r*r	•	f
                 United States
                                                                                                            Lake
                                                                                                       of researchers
                                    	        u               _                     University of
                      ;	' r;i	; :••'	:	')	s'!|!- ""B"!	t;i?' KhiganX' 'State" agencies' (^taie of'Vermont,1 Vermont Monitoring Cooperative),"
                      1	;	;;:?	'r;;is	"	•'	;	*"'	^>S~~-K>	s;i'^^^^^^                                                               "
                                                       .PMlJSililiiwItlitlWi^i^iWWWWlWild**                       .'bll"^.Ki.! 'J^i ',' j	i'i* ,[fl 	«,aft	jfo.
                                                       iThe project objective is to assess the magnitude and seasonal
                                                        yariatipris/jn the levelsi of atmospheric mercury and mercury
                                                        deposition in the Lake Champlain Basin (LCB). Emphasis is
                                                        also being placed on the processes that lead to indirect depo-
                                                        sition of mercury to Lake Champlain since the lake surface
                                                        represents only 5 percent of the drainage basin.
                                                        —   - Results from tjj.e,first;year of monitoring, which com-
                                                        menced in December 3M, reveal thai mercury in precipita-1"
                                                       ^p^'y|5r^^^g5ad^'"wi:i;h' the highest concentrations being
                                                        observed during trie warm months from May to August. The
                                                        total mercury wet deposition was similar to the observed
                                                        deposition in northern Michigan but less than the amounts
                                                        measured at southern Michigan sites.
                                                              Preliminary meteorological analysis of the atmospheric
                                                        mercury measurements revealed that the highest concentra-
                                                        tions of mercury in precipitation were associated with air
                                                        masses reaching the Vermont site from the northwest, out of
                                                        Canada. However, elevated mercury levels in the LCB are
                                                        also associated with air masses arriving from the southwest,.
                                                        from the Midwest Region. In  comparison, the highest concen-
                                                        trations of mercury m precipitation recorded in Michigan are
                                                       ' often asfOciatBdwitrTair masses reaching the Michigan sites
                                                        from the south-southwest.66'67
                                                              The ambient mercury levels observed in the LCB were
                                                        also similar to those measured in the State of Michigan,68
                                                              While fish consumption advisories are in effect for
                                                        Lake Champlain due to mercury and PCBs, it is unclear at
                                                        this time what fraction of the mercury in the fish is ac-
                                                        counted for by atmospheric deposition.
                                            Inland Sea
                                            MaUetts Bay
                                          Broad Lake
                                        South Lake
                              New York    Vermont
I           \.:l!ii'::i!,iK               jiilii'il '^^
 I iuiZ N.il.lijiijiijihjiij.id',:,1!1,::::![!:!»!!'; ;j/s,at ,,E ijiiii Lip,: j'i, i," 'i1:1'1 '.iliisir.iiii'iN! . jnZrini j: i, aijiiii! I1 ^b™1!11 s ,'viii. :4;!i|::i!:'!'.i ^i^'wwjiiF'^^iViiii'iiLbS1:!;::; j^i^'liistaiiKiijiiipipiiiSJJJp^^
                                nil	'	i/inWllllill	ir	,	 hl'lill	:,!';!	,ii.	hlili!!:' ;!'l, 'llllb	iii!	i	ii, !|P,i i,': .i	.1 .'ilii- 'i Ifii.i"' il.iih ,j't irtl wl Ki'.i II! I
                                 ;	:,!:ii	I	i	•!,):,:	i	i,'	!	;	L i,ti!;.;,,	r:,;:,ifti
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                                                                                                 Chapter Three
                                                              Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                       New Reports on Mercury Measurements

                                           A recently completed report on the Lake Michigan Urban Air Toxics
                                       Study (LMUATS) provides new insight on the levels and behavior of atmos-
                                       pheric mercury in the southern Lake Michigan Basin.69 The report docu-
                                       ments the measurements of total mercury performed simultaneously at three
                                       locations during the summer of 1991 as part of the month-long intensive
                                       study. This project was one of the first designed to observe the behavior of
                                       the many different classes of compounds* as they moved from the urban/
                                       industrial source regions across Lake Michigan.
                                           The LMUATS revealed that ambient mercury concentrations, both
                                       gaseous and particulate (i.e., attached to particles), are significantly higher
                                       (approximately 5 times higher) in the Chicago urban/industrial area
                                       compared to the levels measured at the same time in surrounding areas.
                                                At the urban Chicago location, the levels of atmospheric mercury
                                                varied greatly from day to day as well as within days for mercury
                                                gas with the highest concentrations observed during the daytime
                                                hours.
                                                      Measurements of particulate mercury provided new data on
                                                the levels, particle size, and form of this critical pollutant. The
                                                concentrations of this kind of mercury are significantly greater
                                                than those observed previously in the Great Lakes Region
                                                (10 to 50 times greater and also attached to larger particles than
                                                expected). Since the 1991 study on Lake Michigan,  over-water
                                                measurements of mercury have been performed in the southern
                                                Lake  Michigan Basin, with levels exceeding those measured
                                                during LMUATS.69 These findings indicate that most dry deposi-
                                                tion estimates for mercury have probably underestimated the
                                                mass  loading of this toxic compound to both terrestrial and
                                                aquatic systems. Additional studies are needed to allow us to
                                                understand what factors are controlling the transport and deposi-
                                                tion of mercury from the atmosphere.
*A comprehensive suite of hazardous air pollutants including other heavy metals, PCBs, PAHs, and selected pesticides were also
 investigated during the study.
                                                                                                          51

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Chapter Three
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                       Atmosphere
               Gaseous             Particulate
              -1.6 ng/m3            ~ 0.02 ng/m3
                      Water Column
                 Fish      Dissolved   Particulate
                156ng/g    ~lng/L     ~25ng/g
  Figure 11. Mercury in Little Rock
  Lake, WI. Values shown are approxima-
  tions.6
surface area) to the Great Lakes are similar to those to Chesapeake Bay,
suggesting rapid atmospheric mixing and transport of PCBs over North
America. PCB losses from Lake Superior occur primarily by
volatilization (evaporation), which represents nearly 90 percent of total
losses, while river outflow and burial in bottom sediments each repre-
sents only about 5  percent of total PCB losses. Based on these mass
balance calculations, PCBs appear to be gradually leaving Lake Superior
and transferring back into the atmosphere. It appears that the majority
of the decrease in PCB concentrations is due to volatilization.

Atmospheric Deposition Dominates Mercury Loadings to
Lakes Studied in Wisconsin and Sweden
      The importance  of atmospheric deposition in the cycling of mercury
in large lakes has been demonstrated in two major mercury investiga-
tions: (1) the "Mercury in Temperate Lakes Program" in Wisconsin, and
(2) an investigation of mercury in Sweden. Both studies indicate that
         most of the mercury that enters these lakes comes from atmos-
         pheric deposition and that slight increases in atmospheric mer-
         cury loading could  result in higher levels of mercury in fish.
         The Wisconsin and Sweden studies show broad agreement.
              The Wisconsin study indicates that atmospheric deposi-
         tion accounts for the majority of the mercury in water, fish,
         and sediments of Little Rock Lake and other similar lakes (see
         Figure 11). Measurements of airborne particulate matter and
         precipitation indicate that particulate mercury in the air falls
         to the earth with rain. The lake ecosystem is very sensitive to
         atmospheric inputs of mercury, to the extent that even small
         increases in mercury loadings from the air could lead to
         elevated levels in fish.
               Similarly, analyses of the  mercury flows into and out of
         typical lakes in the southern half of Sweden show that mercury
         enters lakes mainly through atmospheric deposition.  The Swed-
         ish study also suggests that a large portion of the mercury that
         eventually enters a lake is first stored in the soils of forests
         located within the lake's drainage area. Current atmospheric
          deposition into drainage areas was found to be, on average, 10
          times greater than the amount  of mercury leaving the areas
	   through stormwater runoff. As a result, even if anthropogenic
 emissions of mercury were to suddenly cease, mercury that has accumu-
 lated in the soil would continue to be released to lakes from the forest
 soils for a long time,  perhaps several centuries.
  52

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                                                                                                   Chapter Three
                                                                Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                               41%
                               24%
D Municipal/Industrial Discharges
Q Elvers
• Sediment
• Air, Direct and Indirect         14%
• Salt Marsh                    2%
 Figure 12. Annual nitrogen loadings
 to Delaware Bay. Values shown are
 approximations.6
D  Rivers
•  Salt Marshes
•  Air
                              72%
                              21%
Figure 13. Cadmium loadings to
Delaware Bay. Some unknown quantity
of the river input includes atmospheric
fallout into the watershed.6
 Atmospheric Inputs of Nitrogen to Atlantic Estuaries
 Appear Significant

      Nitrogen, in forms available to living organisms, can enter estuar-
 ies in a variety of ways. Of these, atmospheric deposition of nitrogen can
 be important. For example, 10 percent of the total nitrogen inputs to
 Long Island Sound is estimated to come from the direct deposition of
 nitrogen compounds (nitrate and ammonium) from the air.™ Indirectly,
 the inputs of nitrogen from the air to Long Island Sound are probably
 much greater, since over half of the nitrogen entering the Sound comes
 from upstream sources and urban runoff,70 and much of this nitrogen is
 probably derived originally from the atmosphere. Studies of the water-
 sheds of the entire Chesapeake Bay and of the upper Potomac River
 have estimated that 25 to 40 percent and 28 percent, respectively, of the
 nitrogen inputs to these systems come from atmospheric deposition.
      In Delaware Bay, a more heavily urbanized estuary adjacent to
 Chesapeake Bay,  direct and indirect atmospheric deposition provide
 about 14 percent of the annual nitrogen input (see Figure 12).  During
 late spring and early summer, however, atmospheric deposition to Dela-
 ware Bay is estimated to provide 25 percent of the total nitrogen load-
 ing, due to greater atmospheric loading coupled with lower river flows.
 Comparison of these results for Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay
 shows that these two nearby waterbodies receive similar inputs of nitro-
 gen from the atmosphere. However, because of the more urbanized
 nature of the area surrounding Delaware Bay (and the corresponding
 higher nitrogen loadings from municipal and industrial discharges), the
 relative atmospheric loading to the Delaware is slightly less, though still
 significant.

 The Atmosphere Contributes Important Loadings
 of Cadmium to Delaware Bay

     The  mass balance for cadmium in Delaware Bay is one of the few
 that is rather complete and realistic, as it considers both river inflows
 and atmospheric deposition, the effects  of tides, chemical transfers
 between the Bay's water and bottom sediments, and outputs as well  as
 inputs to the estuary. More research is  needed, however, to determine
 the amount of cadmium that enters Delaware Bay from groundwater
 and indirect atmospheric deposition.
     Cadmium in Delaware Bay comes from three main inputs:  rivers,
 salt marshes, and direct atmospheric deposition. As presented in Figure
 13, direct atmospheric deposition accounts for 7 percent of the cadmium
loading to  the Bay. Rivers are the dominant cadmium input (72 per-
cent), but some fraction of the cadmium entering from rivers originally
comes from the air. Most of the cadmium loading is exported from the
Bay to coastal waters and, consequently, does not settle into bottom
sediments. The release of cadmium from the bottom sediments  of the
bay into the water is seven times faster than the rate at which
cadmium gets buried in the bottom.
                                                                                                             53

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                    77-89%
        Superior
                                            -63%
  Figure 14. Atmospheric loading of
  PCBs to the Great Lakes. Arrows and
  flow depict pollution that deposits from the
  atmosphere directly to water surfaces and
  travels through the Great Lakes system.
  The percentages reflect the  amount of
  such pollution compared to that from all
  other routes. For example, approximately
  63% of Lake Huron's PCB loading is from
  atmospheric deposition to the lake itself
  and approximately 15% is from atmospheric
  loading to the upstream lakes. The
  remainder of Huron's PCB loading is from
  nonatmospheric sources (approximately
  22%). Data taken from reference 6.
Conclusions Related to Relative Loadings
      The research findings and case studies lead to a number of conclu-
sions concerning the importance of atmospheric deposition to surface
water contamination. The conclusions presented below apply both to
surface waters in general and to the Great Waters in particular.

1. Although uncertainties still exist, case studies demonstrate
   that atmospheric deposition may be an important, and in
   some cases primary, contributor of toxic chemical contamina-
   tion and nitrogen enrichment to the Great Waters.
   Current understanding of relative loadings from atmospheric d.eposi-
   tion is limited by a lack of data for many chemicals, undetermined
                                 flows into and out of waterbodies for
                                 many pathways, and insufficient
                                 monitoring data. Nevertheless, rela-
                                 tively complete information for a few
                                 cases clearly shows that atmospheric
                                 deposition may be a significant con-
                                 tributor to contamination in surface
                                 waterbodies, including the Great
                                 Waters. For example, atmospheric
                                 deposition is the primary way
                                 mercury gets into some waterbodies
                                 (see Tables 7 and 8 and Figure 11).
                                 For PCBs, direct atmospheric deposi-
                                 tion supplies approximately 77 to 89,
                                 63, and 58 percent of the annual
                                 PCB loadings to Lakes Superior,
                                 Huron, and Michigan, respectively,
                                 as shown in Figure 14. Moreover,
	   atmospheric deposition is the
                                 primary way lead has been entering
   the Great Lakes (Table 7). Atmospheric deposition contributes an
   estimated 25 to 40 percent of the total nitrogen loading to Chesa-
   peake Bay and a significant fraction of nitrogen loadings to other U.S.
   coastal waterbodies (Table 8).

 2. The relative importance of atmospheric loading for a specific
   chemical in a given waterbody depends on characteristics of
   the waterbody, properties of the chemical, and the location
   of sources.
   Broad generalizations concerning the relative importance of atmos-
   pheric deposition are not possible because loadings depend on
   numerous chemical-specific and site-specific factors. Chemical-specific
   factors include pollutant form, persistence, and bioaccumulation
                                                                   Ontario
                                                     Erie

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                                                                                                       Chapter Three
                                                                  Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
Table 7. Contribution of Atmospheric Deposition
         to Total Loadings of Pollutants of Concern
         for Selected Waterbodies
Waterbody
Lake Superior
Lake Michigan
Lake Huron
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
Md Atlantic Bight
Lead
(*)
95
95
95


96
PCBs
(%)
76-89
58
63
20
13

POM*
(%)
96
96
80
79
72

aMeasured as benzo(c)pyrene.
NOTE: The data in Tables 7 and 8 represent several studies with varying
       margins of error. The data are limited to pollutants for which rela-
       tive loading estimates exist. Also, it is important to consider the
       magnitude of inputs from sources other than the atmosphere when
       comparing relative loadings. For example, if a lake is polluted
       heavily by riverine inputs, its atmospheric contribution will be a
       smaller percentage of the total. Likewise, a remote lake with no
       other inputs will have a high atmospheric component, even if the
       overall sum of pollutant inputs is small.
Table 8. Contribution of Atmospheric
         Deposition to Total Loadings of
         Nitrogen for Selected Waterbodies
Waterbody
Baltic Sea
Chesapeake Bay
Delaware Bay
Laholm Bay, Sweden
Narragansett Bay
New York Bay
Ocholockonee Bay, FL
Potomac River
Eehoboth/Indian River
Inland Bays, DE
Rhode River, MD
Nitrogen
(%)
25
25-40
14-25
7
12
10
100
28
8
40
                                                   potential, all of which affect transport processes, mobility, residence
                                                   times, and toxicity. Site-specific factors include the hydrology of a
                                                   given waterbody (e.g., river inflows and outflows, size of drainage
                                                   areas) and the location relative to natural and anthropogenic sources
                                                   of air pollution. All of these factors must be considered together to
                                                   develop specific conclusions for particular chemicals and waterbodies.

                                                 3. Chemicals in the environment may cycle between soil, air,
                                                   water, and biota for many years.

                                                   The amount of PCBs and other persistent semivolatile organic com-
                                                   pounds in air over the upper Great Lakes has not changed much
                                                   since the late 1970s, suggesting a continuing transfer between the
                                                   atmosphere and the terrestrial reservoir of these contaminants.
                                                   Because of the reservoirs of persistent chemicals, cycling between
                                                   environmental media occurs and results in continued atmospheric
                                                   deposition of certain organic chemicals without additional inputs.
                                                   Cycling of pollutants will continue for some time into the future.
                                                   Similarly, mass balance studies show that significant reservoirs of
                                                   mercury reside in fish, soils, and bottom sediments of waterbodies,
                                                   and these studies indicate that mercury may continue to cycle among
                                                   environmental media for years to come.
                                                                                                                  55

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                4. When possible, relative loadings to the Great Waters should
                                                  be evaluated using a mass balance approach.
                                                  Mass balance analyses provide an essential framework for determin-
                                                  ing the relative importance of various input sources and output
                                                  mechanisms in a waterbody, as well as a process for understanding
                                                  the transport and distribution of pollutants in the water and
                                                  estimating the length of time that a pollutant resides in any part
                                                  of an ecosystem.
                                                  Atmospheric loading information should not be overlooked as a source
                                                  of information when there are not enough data for a complete mass
                                                  balance, particularly when atmospheric deposition is suspected of
                                                  being a significant contributor to total loadings.
 Natural Sources
 Anthropogenic Sources
 Figure 15. Examples of sources.
Sources:  What Sources Are Significant Contributors
to Atmospheric Loadings to the Great Waters?

             As summarized in Section 3.1, there is clear evidence of exposures
        and adverse effects associated with toxic pollutants in some of the Great
        Waters and, as discussed in Section 3.2, it appears that a large amount
        of certain pollutants enter the water from the atmosphere. The  next step
        is to determine the source of the pollutants that are released to the air,
        to help identify what, if any, emission reductions may be needed to
        protect the Great Waters.
             A source is any activity at any location that may release pollutants
        to the air. As illustrated in Figure 15, pollutants may be released to the
        air by natural sources and by anthropogenic, or manmade, sources.
        Examples of natural sources include forest fires, volcanoes, windblown
        dust and soil, and sea spray. Examples of anthropogenic sources include
        industrial activities (such as waste incinerators, power plants, and
        chemical manufacturers), pesticide applications at farms,  and motor
        vehicles. Some sources release pollutants to the air from a single point
        at a fixed location, such as a smokestack at a factory; these sources are
        commonly referred to as "point sources."  Pollutants also may be
        released over broad areas, called "area sources,"  such as when pesti-
        cides volatilize after application to a farmer's field or when smoke rises
        from a widespread forest fire. Area sources also may include  small
        sources in a given area that are too numerous to be counted individually
        as point sources. Examples  of these are dry cleaning facilities and house-
        holds, both of which use various chemicals. Sources that are not station-
        ary, such as cars, planes, and other vehicles, are considered "mobile"
        area sources since they release pollutants to the air while moving.
             In general, both local  and distant air emission sources contribute
        to a pollutant load at a given location. For the purposes of this  report,
 *Note that this definition of area sources is different from the definition in the Clean Air Act.

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                                                                                                  Chapter Three
                                                             Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
 Evaluation of Sources

l Source characterization:
  Identifying and evaluating the
  sources that emit pollutants of
  concern to the air.

I Source apportionment:
  Determining the relative con-
  tribution of different sources
  to the air pollution levels at a
  given location, such as over a
  waterbody.
local sources are defined generally as those sources located in States and
Provinces adjacent to the Great Waters. For example, local sources for
the Great Lakes are located in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota,
New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Ontario, Canada.
Distant sources are sources located outside the States and Provinces
adjacent to the Great Waters. Both local and distant sources include
natural and anthropogenic sources and area and point sources.
     Determining what sources and source categories (i.e., groups of
individual sources having similar activities and air emissions) are
significant contributors to atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters
requires two basic tasks. First, sources must be characterized to identify
what the sources are, where they are located, and what pollutants they
emit. Source characterization includes identifying all sources that
release a given chemical, grouping sources into categories, measuring or
estimating the amounts of chemicals released to the air from individual
sources, and examining the relative importance of each source category
in the total atmospheric loading of a given chemical.  Source character-
ization also includes analyses of the identity, form, and relative concen-
trations of chemicals released from a source, information that can be
used to  link pollutants found in the air with a particular source or
source category.
     Second, air pollution levels at a given location,  such as over a
waterbody, must be apportioned to various sources that may have emit-
ted the pollutants.  Linking air  pollution with sources is a complicated
task, as air pollution at any one location usually consists of a mixture of
chemicals released from many  sources, including some that are nearby
and others that are far away. Source apportionment is further compli-
cated by complex and ever-changing weather conditions, variations in
emissions from a given source,  and changes in the chemical and physical
forms of pollutants as they move through the atmosphere. Scientists
have developed and are using a variety of mathematical models as tools
for determining what sources are contributing most to air pollution
levels at a given location, such as  over the Great Waters.
     In the remainder of this section, important sources of air pollutant
emissions are identified and an evaluation is made of which sources
contribute significantly to atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters.
     The section begins with a review of the current understanding of
source characterization and source apportionment. Source case studies
are then presented, followed by conclusions for the Great Waters.

Current Understanding of Sources of Air Pollutants
     Over the last several years, a large amount of information has
been collected to identify the major  anthropogenic sources of toxic air
pollutants. Substantial  new information is currently being collected by
EPA to identify and inventory sources in the United States that emit
mercury and other pollutants to the air. Nevertheless, at present, a
                                                                                                             57

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                 Cadmium, Lead,
                Mercury, Nitrogen,
                Polycyclic Organic
                  Matter (POM),
                 Dioxins, Furans
             Utilities
                     Cadmium,
                Hexachlorobenzene,
                  Mercury, POM,
                  Dioxins, Furans
    Municipal Waste Combustors
                    Lead, Nitrogen,
                         POM
            Motor Vehicles
 Figure 16.  Pollutants of concern
 emitted from selected sources.
complete and comprehensive inventory of the locations of particular
sources and the amounts of individual toxic pollutants that each source
emits to the air is lacking. This basic source characterization informa-
tion is needed to predict the transport of toxic air pollutants from
sources to the Great Waters and also to apportion existing air pollution
levels in the vicinity of the Great Waters to sources. In addition, there is
considerable uncertainty regarding the relative importance of local and
distant sources to air pollution levels over the Great Waters. Answers to
five basic questions that summarize current scientific knowledge about
these sources are provided below.

1. What Sources  Emit Great Waters Pollutants of Concern
   to the Air?
   Many source categories of air pollutants of concern for the Great
   Waters have been defined, and chemicals associated with each source
   category have been identified. These categories include primarily
   industrial activities and processes involving combustion. Less infor-
   mation is available on natural sources and some types of area
   sources, although several of these sources are known to emit certain
   pollutants of concern. In some cases, there  also is limited understand-
   ing about the original source of certain pollutants that appear to be
   originating from natural sources. For example, emissions of mercury
   from soils have  historically been classified as natural sources when,
   in fact, a substantial  portion of the mercury may have been deposited
   to soils originally from human activities and then resuspended in the
   air. In cases such as this, the current source (i.e., the soil) may be
   distant from, and have quite different release characteristics from,
   the original anthropogenic or natural  source. Table 9 identifies key
   sources known to emit pollutants of concern, and Figure 16 identifies
   several pollutants of concern emitted from three important source
   categories: utilities, municipal waste  combustors, and motor vehicles.

2. How Good Are Available Emissions Data for the Various
   Sources?
   The quality of available data on the emission of toxic air pollutants
   from individual sources varies widely. For some source categories,
   such as chemical manufacturing, data on the composition and rate of
   emissions are of good to excellent quality. For other sources, data on
   the types and rates of pollutants emitted are incomplete, and emis-
   sion estimates are crude. For example, the rates of emissions of
   metals and persistent organic compounds in the States around the
   Great Lakes, Lake Champlain, and Chesapeake Bay are difficult to
   assess because of the diversity  of emissions data reported by several
   research groups. For  most of the metals, emission estimates differ by
   a factor of 10 or more and are continually being revised.
 58

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                                                                                                          Chapter Three
                                                                    Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
 Table 9.  U.S. Sources of Air Pollutants of Concern3
PoEutant
Cadmium and compounds
Chlordane
DDT/DDE
Dieldrin
Hexachlorobenzene
cc-HCH
Lindane
Lead and compounds
Mercury and compounds
PCBs
Polycyclic organic matter
2,3,7,8-TGDF
2,3,7,8-TCDD
Toxaphene
Nitrogen compounds
Sources of Air Emissions
Fossil fuel combustion; aluminum production; cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc smelting; iron
and steel production; battery manufacturing; hazardous waste and sewage sludge incineration;
municipal waste combustion; petroleum refining; lime manufacturing; cement manufacturing;
pulp and paper production; combustion of waste oil; pigment manufacturing; soil-derived dust-
volcanoes. '
Insecticide application11; volatilization from soils, water, and treated building foundations due to
past insecticide application; suspension of eroded soil particles.
Insecticide application13; volatilization from soils and water due to past insecticide application
Insecticide application11; volatilization from soils and water due to past insecticide application.
Manufacture of chlorine and related compounds; combustion of materials containing chlorine;
pesticide manufacturing; municipal waste combustion; fungicide application13; volatilization from
soils and water due to past fungicide application.
Insecticide application13; volatilization from soils and water due to past insecticide application
Insecticide application13; volatilization from soils and water due to past insecticide application
Fossil fuel combustion; aluminum production; lead smelting; ferroalloys production; iron and steel
production; battery manufacturing; hazardous waste and sewage sludge incineration; municipal
waste combustion; petroleum refining; lime manufacturing; cement manufacturing; asphalt and
concrete manufacturing; pulp and paper production; combustion of waste oil; paint application1";
motor vehicles'3; forest fires; suspension of eroded soil particles; volcanoes.
Fossil fuel combustion; copper and lead smelting; hazardous waste, municipal waste, medical
waste, and sewage sludge incineration; lime manufacturing; cement manufacturing; chlorine and
caustic soda manufacturing; paint application13; suspension of eroded soil particles; evasion from
soils and water; volcanoes.
Incineration and improper disposal of PCB-contaminated waste; disposal of waste oil; malfunction
of PCB-containing transformers and capacitors; electrical equipment manufacturing; pulp and
paper production; volatilization from soils and water; municipal solid waste incineration and
unregulated combustion.
Combustion of plant and animal biomass and fossil fuels; municipal waste combustion; petroleum
refining; steel production; coke byproduct recovery; aluminum production; plywood and particle
board manufacturing; surface coating of auto and light duty trucks; asphalt processing; dry clean-
ing (petroleum solvent); fabric printing, coating, and dyeing; forest fires.
Hazardous, industrial, and medical waste and sewage sludge incineration; municipal waste
combustion; combustion of fossil fuels and organic materials containing chlorine; byproduct of
various metals recovery processes, such as copper smelting; accidental fires of treated wood
products and PCB-containing transformers and capacitors; improper disposal of certain chlori-
nated wastes; pesticide production, application, and spills; pulp and paper production; volatiliza-
tion from, and erosion of, dust from landfill sites; forest fires.
Hazardous, industrial, and medical waste and sewage sludge incineration; municipal waste
combustion; combustion of fossil fuels and organic materials containing chlorine; byproduct of
various metals recovery processes, such as copper smelting; accidental fires of treated wood
products and PCB-containing transformers and capacitors; improper disposal of certain chlori-
nated wastes; pesticide production, application, and spills; pulp and paper production; volatiliza-
tion from, and erosion of, dust from landfill sites; forest fires.
Insecticide application13; volatilization from soils and water due to past insecticide application
Fossil fuel combustion and other types of combustion; fertilizer application; animal waste.
*Data for this table are taken from References 5, 13 through 27, 71, and 72.
 Not currently a significant source in the United States due to manufacturing restrictions.
                                                                                                                    59

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                               3. What Local Sources Are Important Contributors of Pollutants
                                                  of Concern to the Great Waters?
                                                  Ongoing studies in the United States and Canada have identified
                                                  and characterized local sources around the Great Waters for many
                                                  pollutants of concern. Major local sources of metals include fossil fuel
                                                  combustion in industrial, commercial, and residential units; munici-
                                                  pal waste combustion  and hazardous waste and sewage  sludge incin-
                                                  eration; and various manufacturing processes, such as cement
                                                  production. Polycychc  organic matter originates locally from fossil fuel
                                                  and biomass combustion, petroleum refineries, motor vehicles, and
                                                  industrial, commercial, and residential units. Pesticide application is
                                                  an important local source-of pollutants to many Great Waters, such
                                                  as Chesapeake Bay and other coastal waters. The impact of local
                                                  sources is also influenced strongly by the location of large point
                                                  sources relative to the waterbody. For example, 50 of the largest U.S.
                                                  power plants (as judged by emissions of sulfur oxides) are found in a
                                                  belt from Missouri to  Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia,
                                                  and Pennsylvania. Many of these States are adjacent to the Great
                                                  Lakes region. Lake Champlain and Chesapeake Bay also are located
                                                  near significant sources.

                                                4. What Distant Sources Are Important Contributors of
                                                  Pollutants of Concern to the
                                                  Great Waters?
                                                  Although no definitive information exists that indicates in precise
                                                   quantitative terms the relative contribution of local and distant
                                                   sources, evidence strongly suggests that distant sources can contrib-
                                                   ute a  significant amount of air pollution over the Great Waters. The
                                                   extent to which pollutants reach the Great Waters from distant
                                                   sources depends on many factors, including the height of emission
                                                   stacks, temperature and velocity of exhaust gases, meteorological
                                                   conditions, and the physical and chemical forms of the pollutants.
                                                   Some distant sources believed to be responsible for pollutants
                                                   deposited to the Great Waters are located in other U.S. regions and
                                                   also in Canada. A portion of some pollutants over the Great Waters
                                                   probably originates from sources in other countries.  For example,
                                                   significant amounts of air pollutants are emitted in Mexico from
                                                   motor vehicles and metals production plants. Also, some pesticides
                                                   that are present in the Great  Lakes are still being used in the
                                                   Caribbean and Mexico but are restricted from use in the United
                                                   States and Canada. Pinpointing the sources of some pollutants
                                                   deposited to the  Great Waters is difficult because these pollutants are
                                                   widely distributed throughout the United States and other countries,
                                                   even  showing up in such remote locations as the Arctic. Pollutants
                                                   such  as PCBs, which exist as  particles or in the gaseous phase, may
                                                   be deposited to the ground and returned to the air many times. This
 60

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                                                                                                         Chapter Three
                                                                   Answering the Scientific Questions of Section I12(m)
Table 10. Source Apportionment Techniques
 Type of Model
 Dispersion
 Receptor
 Hybrid
                    , Description
Traces pollutants from sources to the air at various locations, such
as over waterbodies and land. Can quantify relative contributions
from a particular point source. Uses data on meteorological condi-
tions and the amount of pollutants emitted from particular sources
to evaluate pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere and estimate
the airborne concentrations at locations of interest. Requires
detailed data on the location and emission characteristics of vari-
ous sources, which are often lacking. Historically, the primary tool
for linking sources to air pollution levels, although limitations of
dispersion models have led to the development of receptor models.
Traces pollutants in the air at various locations, such as over
waterbodies and land, back to particular source types. Can esti-
mate contributions from a group of sources with similar emissions
rather than relative contributions from a particular source. Uses
data on the air pollution characteristics at the location of interest
and on the composition of source emissions (not including data on
meteorological conditions) to determine the likely responsible
sources based on the premise that sources can be identified by
unique emission characteristics (such as the forms and relative
amounts of individual pollutants). The effectiveness of this model-
ing approach is often limited by a lack of adequate "source profile"
data (sometimes called "source signatures") that allow air pollution
to be linked to particular source types.
Similar to receptor models, but also consider meteorological data.
Important for assessing how much air pollution over a receptor
comes from distant sources.
   phenomenon, referred to as the "grasshopper effect," can result in
   long-distance transport of pollutants and similar background concen-
   trations of air pollutants worldwide.

5.  Are Sufficient Data and Techniques Available to Relate
   Air Pollution Levels Over the Great Waters to Particular
   Sources or Source Categories?

                                 There is a general understanding of
                               the major factors that affect the trans-
                               port of air pollutants between their
                               release from the source and their
                               downwind locations, as well as a gen-
                               eral understanding of how these factors
                               interrelate. Based on this knowledge, a
                               variety of techniques have been devel-
                               oped that can, in limited instances,
                               relate air pollution levels over the
                               Great Waters to particular sources.
                               Primary source  apportionment tech-
                               niques include "dispersion" models,
                               "receptor" models, and "hybrid" models
                               (see Table 10). In most cases, these
                               techniques have not been fully vali-
                               dated, and they lack complete and
                               reliable input data, such as sufficiently
                               detailed data on the composition and
                               rate of emissions from some sources.
                               Source apportionment methods and
                               capabilities are especially weak for air
                               pollutants that are widespread in the
                               environment, travel over long dis-
                               tances, and/or are emitted in large
                               quantities from natural sources or
                               broad area sources.
                                                 Source Case Studies

                                                      This section presents source case studies for four pollutants of
                                                 concern in the Great Waters. These cases identify the principal local
                                                 and, when possible, distant sources contributing to air pollution levels.

                                                 Fuel Combustion, Especially Residential Wood Burning,
                                                 is a Primary Source of PAHs

                                                      PAHs, a subset of POM, appear to be released from a wide variety
                                                 of sources. The results of a recent study that analyzed the contributions
                                                 of various PAH sources in eastern North America are shown in Figure
                                                 17. The primary source of PAHs was stationary fuel combustion (nearly
                                                                                                                    61

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
 Estimated Emissions, tons/year
 5,000
48%
               Industry    Stationary
                              Fuel
                           Combustion
             Solid
             Waste
          Incineration
 Figure 17. Sources of PAH emissions
 in eastern North America, 1992.
50 percent), which includes commercial and residential wood, coal, oil,
and other fuel combustion, as well as electric power generation. In fact,
residential wood combustion alone accounted for over 30 percent of the
total PAH emissions in this study.
      PAH releases in the United States appear largest in a wide diago-
nal belt extending from southern Illinois to the mid-Atlantic States and
southern New England. Many of the largest U.S power plants are found
                             in this belt and are known to emit large
                             amounts of PAHs that  could deposit in
	"	       the Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, and
                             other Great Waters. Major aluminum
                             smelters also are significant sources of
                             PAHs; some aluminum smelters are
                             located in States adjacent to and near
                             the Great Lakes, and others are in
                             States that border Chesapeake Bay.
                                   Other studies have found that the
                             relative importance of particular sources
                             of PAHs can be exceedingly variable.
                             One study in New Jersey, for example,
                             found a large seasonal variation in emis-
                             sions of benzo(a)pyrene, a specific PAH.
                             During the nonheating season,  98
                             percent of benzo(a)pyrene emissions (183
                             kg)  was estimated to come from motor
                              vehicles, while during  the heating sea-
                              son, 98 percent of benzo(a)pyrene emis-
                              sions (6,135 kg) was from residential
                              wood burning. Another study found that
                              within a particular source category (such
		   as primary metals production), and even
                              within a specific industry (such as alu-
  minum reduction facilities), PAH emissions at individual facilities typi-
  cally vary by an order of magnitude or more, depending on the process
  and raw materials involved.

  Lindane Is Emitted from Sources Outside North America
       The pesticide lindane, which  consists mostly of y-hexachlorocyclo-
  hexane (y-HCH), demonstrates the importance of global sources and
  long-distance transport in atmospheric deposition. Though lindane is
  available in both the United States and Canada, its use as a pesticide is
  severely restricted. Yet lindane  is still found in the Great Waters. Based
  on investigations of global wind patterns  and lindane concentrations in
  the Arctic, it has been hypothesized that lindane deposited to the Great
  Waters may originate from as far away as India, China, or the former
  Soviet Union. Other international regions, such as Latin America, may
  also be significant sources.
Mobile
Sources
 Open
Sources
  62

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                                                                                                   Chapter Three
                                                               Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
D   Stationary Fuel Combustion   57%
II   Mobile Sources              38%
•   Industrial Processes           3%
•   Solid Waste and Miscellaneous  2%
Figure 18.  Anthropogenic sources
of nitrogen oxide emissions in 1990.
      Lindane and other pesticides are used most extensively in Asia in
the spring. During spring storms in the Asian deserts, these pesticides
can become airborne in the gaseous phase or as very small dust par-
ticles and become subject to long-distance transport in the atmosphere.
Current understanding of meteorologic processes and wind patterns is
consistent with the possibility of hndane-contaminated air from Asia
blowing over the Pacific Ocean to the United States and beyond. Such
long-distance transport of lindane, however, has only been hypothesized
at this time and further study would be needed to obtain evidence of
long-distance transport. During atmospheric transport, some of the
y-HCH in lindane naturally changes into another chemical form,
a-hexachlorocyclohexane (cc-HCH). Measurements of the relative
amounts of y-HCH and cc-HCH can be used to evaluate how long the
lindane has been in the air and how far it has travelled from possible
sources.

Fossil Fuel Combustion and Motor Vehicles
Are Major Sources of Nitrogen Emissions

      Nationwide studies have determined that nitrogen is  released to
the atmosphere in various  forms from a wide  variety of industrial, com-
mercial, and residential fuel combustion sources. As shown in Figure 18,
the two primary U.S. sources of nitrogen  oxide (NOX) emissions in 1990
were stationary fuel combustion (such as  power plants) and motor
vehicles.40 Trends from 1982 to 1991 indicate  that emissions from mobile
sources have decreased, while emissions from stationary fuel combustion
have increased. No cap on NOX emissions is required by the 1990
Amendments. Therefore, with continued growth, it is probable that NOX
emissions will start increasing again after the turn of the century.73
      Separate studies in the Chesapeake Bay region yield  the same
basic  conclusion about nitrogen sources. One study determined that the
majority of nitrogen compounds in air over Chesapeake Bay are emitted
from power plants and motor vehicles.40 Many large power  plants are
found in the mid-western, eastern, and southern parts of the country,
with a higher density of plants in a few regions, including the region
west and south of Chesapeake Bay.

Many Mercury Sources Are Located Outside
the Great Lakes Region
      A number of studies have developed interim emission estimates
for mercury in the continental United States.  One 1984 study (based on
1980 data) estimated that natural and anthropogenic sources combined
release roughly 1,700 tons of mercury to the air each year. More recent
EPA studies estimate that anthropogenic sources account for less than
one-third of this total.74 The 1984 study also found that only a small
portion of the total release came from States that are adjacent to or
near the Great Lakes. Mercury emissions from more distant States,
such as those in the Rocky Mountain region and along the Pacific
                                                                                                               63

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Chapter Three
Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
                                                Ocean, appear to contribute much larger fractions of the total mercury
                                                loading to the air. These conclusions are still highly uncertain, however,
                                                because dispersion modeling was not performed as part of the study.
                                                The authors did estimate that almost 25 percent of airborne mercury
                                                comes from unknown locations. As part of the EPA Mercury Study
                                                (required under section 112(n)(l)(B) of the Clean Air Act, as amended in
                                                1990), long-range transport dispersion modeling is being performed to
                                                address this issue. The findings from this effort will be presented in
                                                1994 in the Keport to Congress on the Mercury Study.
                                                     Preliminary results also provide  an indication of the types of
                                                sources that add to mercury levels in air over the Great Lakes. Waste
                                                incineration and fossil fuel combustion have been identified as major
                                                anthropogenic source categories for mercury emissions in the Great
                                                Lakes region. Natural sources also are an important source. One study
                                                suggests that a significant portion of the mercury released to air comes
                                                from natural sources such as the release of mercury from surface waters
                                                and the resuspension of soil particles. It is unclear, however, how much
                                                of these "natural" emissions are actually the result of mercury buildup
                                                in the environment caused by past anthropogenic releases.

                                                Conclusions Related to Sources
                                                     Section 112(m) requires an assessment of air pollution sources
                                                that are responsible  for the atmospheric deposition of toxic chemicals to
                                                the Great Waters. Based on available research findings concerning air
                                                emission sources, the  following overall conclusions can be drawn.

                                                1. Although atmospheric deposition appears to be an important
                                                  way for some pollutants to enter the Great Waters, identifying
                                                  and characterizing the specific  sources that emit the pollut-
                                                  ants is difficult.
                                                  In general, major sources that  emit pollutants of concern to air are
                                                  reasonably well known, although reliable emissions data are
                                                  frequently lacking. Characterizing the emissions from a given source
                                                  through measurements is often very expensive and, in some cases,
                                                  extremely difficult to perform. As a result, emissions are frequently
                                                  determined by estimation techniques, which are less accurate and
                                                  frequently yield widely varying results across different research
                                                  groups. The current lack of reliable emission data and lack of detailed
                                                  emission inventories severely limits the ability to link toxic air pollu-
                                                  tion over the Great Waters to particular sources.

                                                2. The specific sources and source categories contributing
                                                  to atmospheric  deposition to the Great Waters are not well
                                                  known.
                                                   Many of the sources of many of the pollutants of concern have been
                                                   identified. Yet, to adequately identify the specific sources or source
                                                   categories responsible for particular air pollutants  deposited to the
 64

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                                                    Chapter Three
                Answering the Scientific Questions of Section 112(m)
   Great Waters, more complete and accurate data are needed to evalu-
   ate both the emissions from individual sources and the concentra-
   tions and deposition rates of airborne pollutants over a waterbody.
   Source apportionment techniques also need continued modification,
   improvement, and verification.

3.  Atmospheric loadings to the Great Waters may be derived
   from local, regional, and global sources.

   Among other evidence, the observed presence of current-use pesti-
   cides on  untreated crops adjacent to treated fields demonstrates the
   importance of local release and transport over short distances. The
   importance of regional sources and cycling to mercury deposition has
   been demonstrated in both North America and Europe. The presence
   of persistent organic compounds in the Arctic and Antarctic is
   evidence that long-distance transport in air and subsequent deposi-
   tion is an important global pathway for these chemicals. Similarly,
   atmospheric mixing allows northern hemispheric emissions of
   elemental mercury to be transported to the southern hemisphere,
   leading to elevated mercury concentrations in fresh water and
   marine fish in areas far removed from local sources.

4.  The relative contribution of local sources and distant sources
   to atmospheric deposition to the Great Waters is uncertain.
   Available emissions data indicate that many pollutants of concern
   originate from some sources that are near particular Great Waters,
   as well as some sources that are located in distant regions. The
   tendency for pollutants to deposit near their source or to move long
   distances in the atmosphere depends on a number of factors, includ-
   ing the height of release points, the temperature and velocity of emis-
   sions, meteorological conditions, and the physical and chemical forms
   of the pollutants. Kesults from several recent studies allow for some
   generalizations for certain pollutants, but more research is needed to
   determine how much of the pollution deposited to the Great Waters
   from the air comes from local versus distant sources.

5.  The environment may act as an important reservoir or source
   of persistent contaminants that have been released to air
   previously. Because of pollutant cycling in the environment,
   atmospheric concentrations of some  pollutants may not corre-
   spond closely to current source emissions.

   Understanding the relative contribution of various sources is further
   complicated by the fact that certain persistent pollutants cycle among
   air, soils, surface water,  sediments, and other environmental media
   for extended periods. In many cases, it is possible that sizable frac-
   tions of some pollutants  entering the Great Waters from the air
   today are not coming from current emissions, but rather are the
   result of continued cycling in the environment.
                                                              65

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Chapter Four
Conclusions and Recommendations
                                                Pollutants emitted to the atmosphere are transported various
                                            distances and can be deposited to aquatic ecosystems far removed from
                                            their original sources. Scientific studies show that this atmospheric
                                            deposition is often an important factor in the degradation of water
                                            quality and associated adverse health and ecological effects.
                                                The potential for air pollutants to affect water quality has become
                                            increasingly apparent over the last two decades. Stringent controls
                                            placed on direct discharges to surface waters have had significant but
                                            limited results, making diffuse, or nonpoint, sources of water contami-
                                            nation more important by comparison. Water quality programs have
                                            begun to address such nonpoint sources as agricultural and urban
                                            runoff. Studies evaluating the loading of pollutants through atmospheric
                                            deposition indicate that the atmosphere must also be considered a
                                            nonpoint source of pollution that must be controlled in order to meet
                                            water quality goals.
                                                Concern about the impact of atmospheric deposition on water
                                            quality was the basis for the inclusion of section 112(m) (i.e., the "Great
                                            Waters" provision) in the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990 (1990
                                            Amendments). The purpose of this section of the 1990 Amendments is
                                            to evaluate the impact of hazardous air pollutants on the Great Lakes,
                                            Chesapeake Bay, Lake Champlain, and coastal waters and to determine
                                            whether further reduction of HAPs is needed to prevent serious adverse
                                            effects on human health and the environment. To determine if further
                                            action is needed, several steps in the decision process are necessary and
                                            are inherent in the report requirements posed in section 112(m). Essen-
                                            tially, the questions that must be addressed are:

                                                1.  Do HAPs deposited to aquatic systems cause or contribute to
                                                   serious adverse effects to human health or serious or wide-
                                                   spread adverse effects to the environment or does atmospheric
                                                   deposition of hazardous air pollutants result in exceedances of
                                                   water quality standards or criteria?

                                                2.  If adverse impacts are occurring, what proportion of the
                                                   exposure is due to airborne pollutants as opposed to
                                                   waterborne pollutants?

                                                3.  If deposition from the air is significant, what sources are
                                                   emitting these pollutants?
                                                                                                     67

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Chapter Four
Conclusions and Recommendations
  This report evaluated 15 chemi-
  cals that are significant water
  pollutants on the list of Clean
  Air Act HAPs (except for nitro-
  gen compounds and dieldrin)
  and are known to be deposited
  from the atmosphere. They are:
  Cadmium and compounds
  Chlordane
  DDT/DDE
  Dieldrin
  Hexachlorobenzene
  a-HCH
  Lindane
  Lead and compounds
  Mercury and compounds
  PCBs
  Polycyclic organic matter
  2,3,7,8-TCDF
  2,3,7,8-TCDD
  Toxaphene
  Nitrogen compounds.
  Other pollutants will be evalu-
  ated in the future and  will be
  included, as appropriate, for
  recommended action. Likely
  additions to the list are bioaccu-
  mulative chemicals of concern
  (BCCs) targeted for action by the
  proposed Water Qualify Guid-
  ance for the Great Lakes System
  (58 PR 20802) that have
   significant atmospheric sources.
            4.  Will regulations mandated by the 1990 Amendments address
               these sources adequately, and, if not, what regulatory action is
               recommended to control these air sources to prevent adverse
               effects? What regulatory revisions are recommended under
               other Federal laws?

            The requirement to include non-Clean Air Act recommendations
       makes it clear that the intenHs for section 112(m) to identify what
       needs to be done in a broad arena and with a multimedia approach to
       prevent adverse effects caused by hazardous air pollutants that have
       been deposited to significant U.S. waterbodies.
            This chapter summarizes findings on the impact of air pollutants
       on water quality and aquatic resources, discusses EPA rationale for
       decisionmaking  at this time, and presents EPA's recommendations.
            Future biennial Great Waters reports to Congress will provide
       updated scientific information and address further regulatory needs.
       The Clean Air Act studies on mercury and on electric utilities,  with
       reports to be published in 1994 and 1995, respectively, will further
       augment information on hazardous air pollutants that are of concern in
       the Great Waters. Findings from those reports  will also  be used in
       subsequent Great Waters reports to Congress.
Conclusions

            Water quality conditions for most of the Great Waters have
       improved substantially over the past two or three decades. This
       improvement demonstrates the effectiveness of Federal, State, and local
       programs of environmental legislation and regulation, as well as public
       and industry cleanup efforts. Most significant are water program
       accomplishments under the Clean Water Act (CWA) (see sidebar on
       page 69). Programs under the Clean Air Act (e.g., the phaseout of
       leaded gasoline), the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA, e.g., banning
       the use of PCBs), the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide
       Act (FIFRA, e.g., the banning of DDT), and other Federal laws have
       also contributed to water quality improvements. A summary of relevant
       EPA regulatory programs and regulations is provided in Appendix C.
            As major reductions in direct discharges to surface waters were
       achieved, the air contribution to water quality and related ecosystem
       problems became more apparent. Despite the water quality
       improvements that have been made, the Great Waters ecosystems are
       far from fully recovered. In order to attain water quality goals and
       ecosystem protection, the atmospheric component of the water quality
       problem must be addressed.
             Section 112(m) of the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990, is only
       one part of a comprehensive program to reduce emissions of hazardous
 68

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                                                                                                    Chapter Four
                                                                                 Conclusions and Recommendations
  Pollutant Reductions
    Resulting from the
      Clean Water Act

The States and EPA have imple-
mented many important features
of the CWA in the past 20' years,
including:

• The development^ water
   quality standards by each
   State

• A massive construction
   program for wastewater
   treatment plants

• Monitoring and reporting
   on the status of the States'
   waterbodies

• The National Pollutant Dis-
   charge Elimination System
   (NPDES), a program that
   requires permits for all dis-
   chargers and sets technology-
  based or water-quality-based
  effluent limits for toxics from
  industrial and municipal
  facilities.
 air pollutants, thus reducing pollutant loadings to the Great Waters.
 In addition to the studies required by the 1990 Amendments, there are
 significant regulatory requirements for hazardous air pollutants, many
 of which will reduce emissions of Great Waters pollutants of concern.
 Some of these requirements include vehicle emission standards, refor-
 mulated fuel requirements, NOX emission control requirements under
 the acid rain and ozone programs, and emission standards for station-
 ary sources. Appendix D outlines specific activities required under
 section 112 and lists the Great Waters pollutants that may be affected
 by these activities. (Appendix E outlines EPA's progress under section
      The most important conclusions of this Great Waters report are
 related to scientific concepts concerning characteristics of the pollutants,
 their transport through air, and their impacts after being deposited to
 waterbodies. The atmospheric transport and deposition of pollutants
 and their potential to affect human health and the environment are
 concepts that are widely accepted by scientists in the field, yet there is
 still much to learn. However, some basic information is quite clear and
 very important in any discussion of these pollutants.
      The effects that Great Waters pollutants of concern can cause in
 humans and the environment are fairly well understood. Cancer, devel-
 opmental effects,  neurological effects, and effects on reproduction have
 been associated with exposure (usually through fish consumption) of
 humans and other animals to Great Waters pollutants. Though studies
 relate these cancer and noncancer effects to specific Great Waters pol-
 lutants, there are generally insufficient data available to prove the
 linkage between atmospheric deposition of the pollutants and conse-
 quent effects in humans and ecosystems.
      Studies of relative loadings to waterbodies from atmospheric
 deposition have demonstrated that atmospheric deposition can be a
 significant contributor of toxic chemicals to the Great Waters. Studies
 have demonstrated that, for example, atmospheric deposition is respon-
 sible for as much  as 77 to 89 percent of the loadings of PCBs to Lake
 Superior and as much as 40 percent of the loadings of nitrogen to
 Chesapeake Bay. Yet, the relative importance of atmospheric loading
 for a specific chemical depends on the interaction of properties of the
 chemical, weather patterns, and the kind and amount of airborne
 sources and waterborne sources. Thus, even when data are available for
 a particular chemical in a particular waterbody, only some of the data
 can be generalized to other waterbodies or other chemicals.
     Many sources and source categories of these pollutants have
 been identified (see chart in Appendix E). However, because atmos-
 pheric loadings to any particular waterbody are derived from local,
regional, and global sources, determining the particular sources
responsible for deposited pollutants is quite difficult. Further data are
needed for identification and characterization of the specific sources
                                                                                                            69

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Chapter Four
Conclusions and Recommendations
                                                responsible for pollutants that are deposited to the Great Waters and,
                                                thus, for the adverse effects of these pollutants on human health and
                                                the environment. Whether or not effects from exposure to Great Waters
                                                pollutants, such as those originating from long-range transport, are
                                                sufficient to warrant regulatory action is a question for the risk man-
                                                ager and has not been addressed here.
                                                     Further research is needed to better determine the full impacts
                                                of these pollutants on human health and the environment and to
                                                provide risk managers with sufficient information to ensure that deci-
                                                sions result in pollution prevention and regulatory measures that will
                                                yield significant benefits.
                                                     The following conclusions are based on the currently available
                                                scientific data:

                                                     1.  Persistence is a critical characteristic of the Great
                                                         Waters pollutants of concern. This characteristic allows
                                                         them to be transported long distances, to remain in the envi-
                                                         ronment for a significant period of time, and to  accumulate
                                                         over time. Therefore, persistent chemicals can be deposited
                                                         and then reemitted and redeposited many times, resulting in
                                                         transport over long distances. Their accumulation in the envi-
                                                         ronment over time results in significantly greater exposure
                                                         potential than for chemicals that degrade in the environment.

                                                      2.  The tendency to bioaccumulate is another critical
                                                         characteristic of pollutants of concern. This results in
                                                         potentially greater exposure for predators at the top of the
                                                         food web, such as eagles and humans. These pollutants are
                                                         stored in animal tissues and accumulate, which results in
                                                         biomagnification. That is, at  each level of the food web an
                                                         animal  accumulates the chemicals from its diet and passes
                                                         them along to the animal at  the next level of the food web.
                                                         Top consumers in the food web may accumulate chemical
                                                         concentrations millions of tunes greater than that in the
                                                         water. For example:

                                                           • The cancer risk from eating 1 pound of Lake Ontario trout
                                                             is greater than the risk from drinking 20 lifetimes' worth
                                                             of water from Lake Ontario.75

                                                           • In the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain, fish consumption
                                                             advisories have been established for some fish because of
                                                             unsafe concentrations of chemicals, such as mercury, in
                                                             the fish. People who consume contaminated fish regularly
                                                             (such as Native Americans or subsistence fishermen) have
                                                             greater concentrations of the contaminants in their bodies
                                                             than other people. Humans generally  are exposed to
  70

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                                                                                                   Chapter Four
                                                                               Conclusions and Recommendations
The USA is a signatory of the
Great Lakes Water Quality
Agreement, which requires that
the input of persistent toxic sub-
stances to the Great Lakes Basin
Ecosystem he "virtually elimi-
nated." In their Fifth Biennial
Report in  1989, the International
Joint Commission (IJC), an advi-
sory committee comprised of
representatives from the United
States  and Canada, recom-
mended that the Parties (the
United States and Canada)
complete and implement imme-
diately a bmational toxic sub-
stances management strategy for
accomplishing, as soon as
possible,; the Great Lakes Water
Quality Agreement philosophy of
zero discharge. They concluded,
on the basis of mounting
evidence that "cannot be denied/'
that "there is a threat to the
health of our children emanating
from our exposure to persistent
toxic substances, even at very
low ambient levels." In their
Sixth Biennial Report in 1991,
the IJC concluded that "because
persistent toxic substances
remain in  the environment for
long periods of time and become
widely dispersed, and because
they bioaccumulate in plants and
animals—including humans—
that make up the food web, the  ,
ecosystem cannot assimilate
these substances." These toxic
substances, the IJC concluded,
"are too dangerous to the
biosphere  to permit their release
in any quantity."
       mercury through ingestion of fish and, in the United
       States, 1 percent of the population has an average daily
       intake of methylmercury (the most toxic form of mercury)
       higher than the World Health Organization's suggested
       "safe level."

     • Breast-fed babies are considered to be one level in the food
       web higher than their mothers.  After 6 to 9 months of
       breast-feeding, the concentration of PCBs in a baby can
       reach four times that in the mother.76

3.  Significant adverse effects on human health and wild-
   life have been observed due to exposure, especially through
   fish consumption, to persistent pollutants that bioaccumulate.
   These adverse effects range from immune system disease and
   reproductive problems in wildlife to subtle developmental and
   neurological impacts on children and fetuses. Often considered
   to be unrelated, the human and wildlife effects of these chemi-
   cals are essentially linked. As EPA's Science Advisory Board
   pointed out, "most human activities that pose significant
   ecological risks . . . pose direct or indirect human health risks
   as well."12

   Although research is continuing, the International Joint Com-
   mission considered the known effects sufficient reason to adopt
   a goal of "virtual elimination" of persistent organic chemical
   releases to the Great Lakes (see sidebar).

4.  Noncancer effects are a significant human health con-
   cern. Most of the chemicals of concern are probable human
   carcinogens, exposure to which is expected to increase the
   population incidence of cancer. However, noncancer effects will
   impact some members of a population exposed to levels that
   exceed a threshold level. Many of the pollutants of concern are
   developmental toxicants capable of  altering the formation and
   function of critical body systems and organs. Therefore, the
   developing embryo and fetus and breast-fed infants are
   particularly sensitive to these chemicals.

   Subtle changes in thought processing and activity levels were
   observed in one study of children of women who consumed
   Lake Michigan fish two to three times a month. The ultimate
   impact of individual impairments such as these can be charac-
   terized as a  "diminishment of potential" in humans. Exposure
   to the mother may have been a single large exposure, small
   cumulative exposures, or long-discontinued exposure and may
   have caused no visible symptoms in the mother.
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Chapter Four
Conclusions and Recommendations
                                                     5. Ecological effects are significant and can be subtle, such
                                                        as immune function impairment, reproductive problems, and
                                                        neurological changes that affect survival.  Also, these impacts
                                                        can affect the offspring of the exposed individual and may not
                                                        be evident until later in life. For example, a study of tern eggs
                                                        and chicks, contaminated through maternal exposure to PCBs
                                                        and dioxins, showed a 35 percent mortality rate due to "wast-
                                                        ing." The deaths in one study occurred after 17 days, and, in
                                                        the followup study, the same percentage died after 31 days.
                                                        Such delayed effects and subtle symptoms can easily be over-
                                                        looked.

                                                        Other ecological effects are quite obvious and can affect sur-
                                                        vival of individuals and/or populations. For example, crossed
                                                        bills,  associated with exposure of birds to  toxic pollutants, can
                                                        hinder adequate feeding.

                                                     6. There have been many exceedances of existing water
                                                        quality criteria and standards as well as of the proposed
                                                        Great Lakes Water Quality Criteria (pGLWQC) (see Appendix
                                                        B). Persistence allows accumulation of a chemical to undesir-
                                                        able levels. The pGLWQCs are particularly important
                                                        measures of the health of aquatic  resources because they incor-
                                                        porate bioaccumulation factors.

                                                     7. Eutrophication, caused by excess nitrogen inputs, is a
                                                        major problem  in TJ.S. coastal waters, and, in studied
                                                        estuaries, the atmospheric contribution to the total  nitrogen
                                                        loading is significant. Nitrogen is the limiting nutrient in most
                                                        coastal estuaries. Thus, addition of nitrogen in a form usable
                                                        by plants results  in accelerated eutrophication of the
                                                        waterbody, to the point of causing toxic effects—characterized
                                                        by additional plant growth, usually of algae, which  shades
                                                        beneficial plants and uses up oxygen during decay.  Eutrophica-
                                                        tion causes ecological effects and economic impacts that range
                                                        from nuisance algal blooms to oxygen depletion and fish kills.

                                                        In studies  of the Chesapeake and  Delaware Bays, the atmos-
                                                        phere was estimated to account for 28 to 40 percent of the
                                                        total nitrogen loading, which contributes to system-wide
                                                        eutrophication.

                                                     8. Case studies have shown atmospheric deposition to be
                                                        a major contributor of mercury, POMs, PCBs, and nitrogen.
                                                        Available estimates of relative loadings for studied waters and
                                                        specific chemicals are listed in Tables 7 and 8, page 55.
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                                                             Chapter Four
                                          Conclusions and Recommendations
                The relative significance of atmospheric loadings for any
                specific waterbody is dependent on the amount of waterborne
                loading to which it is being compared. The absolute quan-
                tity of atmospheric loadings also warrants attention,
                especially since loadings of even small amounts of pollutants
                that bioaccumulate can result in a significant pollutant
                burden in fish and, ultimately, in humans.

             9. Airborne emissions from local  as well as distant
                sources contribute to pollutant loadings, through atmos-
                pheric deposition, to  waters. Transport distances depend on
                the characteristics of the chemicals and source emissions as
                well as weather patterns. While the contribution of distant air
                pollution sources to remote pristine regions, such as the
                Arctic, is well documented, more data are needed to deter-
                mine sources and source locations  affecting the Great Waters.

            10. Continued research is needed, especially to help deter-
                mine atmospheric contributions, to identify sources, to evalu-
                ate low-exposure effects, and to target HAPs that pose the
                most significant risk to human health and aquatic resources.

             Conclusions could not be drawn for two areas of concern because
        of the lack of data. Available data are not sufficient to quantify the
        overall relative atmospheric loadings (for all of the Great Waters for all
        of the HAPs). Therefore, relative loading estimates  are, and will
        continue to be, chemical- and waterbody-specific. Neither is it possible
        to identify the specific  sources or source types emitting the pollutants
        into the atmosphere that are ultimately deposited to the Great Waters
        (except in localized case studies).
Recommendations and Actions

             The goal of section 112(m) of the Clean Air Act, as amended in
        1990, as discussed earlier, is to determine if atmospheric inputs of
        pollutants, and the impacts from these atmospheric inputs to the Great
        Waters, warrant further reductions of atmospheric releases. If reduc-
        tions are  warranted, a strategy to reduce atmospheric releases of the
        pollutants must be devised. In making the following recommendations,
        EPA evaluated the available scientific information and called upon the
        expertise of its own, as well as outside, scientists. Most important,
        EPA considered the implications of action and of inaction, while also
        recognizing that section 112(m) of the 1990 Amendments mandates
        a preventive approach, stating that EPA should act to "prevent"
        adverse effects and to "assure protection of human health and the
        environment."
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Chapter Four
Conclusions and Recommendations
  In the 1992 amendments to the
  Chesapeake Bay Agreement, the
  Governors of Virginia, Maryland,
  and Pennsylvania; the Mayor of
  the District of Columbia; the
  EPA Administrator; and the
  Chesapeake Bay Commission
  chair committed "to incorporate,
  into the Nutrient Reduction
  Strategies, an air deposition
  component which builds upon the
  1990 Amendments to the Federal
  Clean Air Act and explores addi-
  tional implementation opportuni-
  ties to further reduce airborne
  sources of nitrogen entering
  Chesapeake Bay and its tribu-
  taries."
     EPA's recommendation is that reasonable actions are
justified, based on evaluation of the scientific information cur-
rently available, and should now be taken and that research
should continue. NOAA concurs with the principles of this
policy.
     Although there are significant uncertainties in the information
available, there is enough convincing evidence to prompt action. Effects
documented for some toxic, persistent, bioaccumulative pollutants are of
concern in the Great Lakes, at least, and have prompted strong state-
ments from the International Joint Commission.  Similarly, impacts from
nitrogen loading to Chesapeake Bay led the Chesapeake Executive
Council to address air sources in the development of tributary basin
nutrient reduction strategies (see sidebar).
     "If we  wait until we have all of the answers to act," many argue,
it will be too late to fix the problem. In addition,  some argue that fur-
ther contributions of persistent bioaccumulatable pollutants add to an
environmental burden that is already causing effects. EPA believes it is
important to balance our present understanding of atmospheric deposi-
tion against the implications of inaction in order  to define those actions
that are justified at this time. EPA is committed to protecting public
health and the environment and will take whatever regulatory actions
are appropriate in the most cost-effective way possible. Also, EPA must
target that research that is necessary to define the necessary actions.
(EPA's research needs and plans are discussed in Appendix G.)
     Specifically, EPA is recommending a series of actions. Because of
the uncertainties, the actions EPA proposes are not specific to sources
but, rather,  are targeted for those chemicals about which there is evi-
dence of potentially significant health and environmental risks. The
recommended actions are focused especially on utilizing regulatory
mechanisms in the Clean Air Act that address the most hazardous
chemicals. EPA believes that the characteristics of toxicity, persistence,
and the tendency to bioaccumulate, along with exposure and the signifi-
cance of adverse effects, warrant special treatment for the Great Waters
chemicals of concern, such as outlined below. EPA also believes that this
treatment is consistent with the congressional intent for those regula-
tory mechanisms and for section 112(m).
     The recommended actions also promote an integrated effort to
assess the problem and reduce pollution. EPA recognizes that pollutants
are transferred continuously between air, water,  and land and that,
to adequately address pollution problems, multimedia, multiagency
approaches must be explored. The recommendations reflect an inte-
grated effort, and plans for future Great Waters program activities
reflect increased integration within and outside the Agency.
74

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                                                     Chapter Four
                                  Conclusions and Recommendations
     EPA continues to recommend pollution prevention as the best
option for reducing or eliminating the input of these chemicals to the
environment and advocates the voluntary reduction of any HAPs.
     Consistent with the above, the recommendations for action, out-
lined below, are divided into three strategic themes.

Strategic Themes and Actions
     1.  EPA will continue ongoing efforts to implement section
         112 and other sections of the Clean Air Act, as amended
         in 1990, and will use the results of this report in taking
         reasonable actions to reduce emissions of Great Waters
         pollutants of concern.

     Action Items
        a.
        b.
        c.
 EPA is developing standards under section 112(d) for
 approximately 35 source categories of Great Waters HAPs
 of concern, consistent with the schedule published in
 response to section 112(e)(3). Where possible, given other
 factors, EPA will publish section 112(d) standards ahead
 of schedule for specific source categories. Great Waters
 Program funds will be used to develop and publish ahead
 of schedule section 112(d) standards for at least one source
 category.

 During the process of developing emission standards, EPA
 will evaluate whether the currently defined MACT floor for
 existing sources represents a sufficient level of control for
 sources that emit Great Waters pollutants of concern.

As soon as practicable, EPA will publish an advance notice
of proposed rulemaking to notify the public of EPA's inter-
est in establishing lesser-quantity emission rates (less than
 10 tons per year) for selected Great Waters HAPs for the
purpose of defining sources emitting these HAPs as "major
sources" and to solicit comment. EPA will also evaluate
whether any Great Waters HAPs warrant establishment of
an LQER, and, if appropriate, based on that evaluation
and the comments on the ANPR, EPA will develop a notice
that proposes LQERs for those pollutants for which an
LQER is warranted.
                                                             75

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Chapter Four
Conclusions and Recommendations

                                                          d.  During the process of standards development for major
                                                             sources, EPA will determine whether area sources of Great
                                                             Waters HAPs warrant regulation under section 112(d) and,
                                                             if so, which area sources. Results of the assessment will be
                                                             integrated into the strategy for area sources under develop-
                                                             ment in accordance with section 112(k).

                                                         e.  For the urban area source strategy (section 112(k)), EPA
                                                             will evaluate public health effects on the basis of total
                                                             exposure, which would include exposure by inhalation as
                                                             well as exposure through ingestion of food containing
                                                             bioaccumulated urban toxicants.

                                                         f.  EPA will conduct a pilot project examining the use of Great
                                                             Waters impacts analyses in the development of section
                                                             112(d) standards.

                                                         g.  For Great Waters HAPs, EPA is proposing a cap (i.e., 0.01
                                                             ton/year) to the de minimis levels being developed under
                                                             section 112(g), so that controls would be required  for  more
                                                             sources of Great Waters HAPs as they modify their pro-
                                                             cesses. EPA will determine the appropriate de minimis
                                                             level on a chemical-by-chemical basis, giving consideration
                                                             to the chemical's persistence, propensity to bioaccumulate,
                                                             and such other factors that EPA considers relevant.

                                                          h.  EPA plans to propose a revised municipal waste combustor
                                                             rule, with stringent controls on mercury emissions and
                                                             emissions of other Great Waters HAPs, not later than
                                                             summer 1994.

                                                          i.  EPA is conducting studies that will provide information for
                                                             future Great Waters reports. The mercury study, under
                                                             section 112(n)(l)(B), will evaluate the rate and mass of
                                                             mercury emissions from all sources, the health and envi-
                                                             ronmental effects of such emissions, technologies to control
                                                             such emissions, and the costs of these control technologies.
                                                             The utility study, under section 112(n)(l)(A), will evaluate
                                                             the hazards to public health reasonably anticipated to
                                                             occur as a result of emissions of all HAPs by electric utility
                                                             steam-generating units. Findings of these studies will be
                                                             relied upon in future Great Waters reports in the develop-
                                                             ment of strategies for reducing environmental exposures  to
                                                             Great Waters pollutants.
  76

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                                                Chapter Four
                            Conclusions and Recommendations
 k.
 EPA is developing ecological effects assessment screening
 methods for reviewing petitions to add and delete pollut-
 ants from the HAP list and to delete source categories from
 the source category list. EPA will consider the Bioaccumu-
 lation Factor Methodology (58 FR 20802) in the develop-
 ment of these ecological effects assessment methods. The
 purpose is to help ensure that ecological effects, in addition
 to health effects, will be considered in determining whether
 regulation is warranted.

 EPA will  evaluate whether other pollutants, including
 hexachlorobutadiene and methoxychlor, which are proposed
 Bioaccumulative Chemicals of Concern under the proposed
 Water Quality Guidance for the Great Lakes System
 (58 FR 20802) and which have been identified as having
 potentially significant air sources, should be  added to the
 list of Great Waters pollutants of concern.

 EPA is continuing to emphasize pollution prevention as
 the goal in the development of control measures to reduce
 emissions of Great Waters pollutants of concern and is
encouraging any voluntary pollution prevention and other
emission reduction efforts.
m.  In the development of regulations and pollution prevention
    or reduction strategies under the 1990 Amendments, EPA
    will examine the potential for reductions of oxides of nitro-
    gen and will determine how additional NOX reductions can
    be achieved for protection of coastal water quality and
    related resources.

n.  EPA will develop Achievable Control Technology docu-
    ments (ACTs) for NOX. This is expected to result in nation-
    wide NOX emissions reductions, thus protecting coastal
    waters, as States develop regulations under the National
    Ambient Air Quality Standards program.
                                                       77

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Chapter Four
Conclusions and Recommendations
                                                    2. EPA recognizes the need for an integrated multimedia
                                                       approach to the problem of atmospheric deposition of
                                                       pollutants to waterbodies and, therefore, will consider
                                                       authorities beyond the Clean Air Act to reduce human
                                                       and environmental exposure to Great Waters pollutants
                                                       of concern.

                                                    Action Items
                                                        a.  EPA will establish a funding and operational mechanism
                                                           for all appropriate offices to pool their resources (both
                                                           dollars and personnel) to more effectively and efficiently
                                                           manage this multimedia problem. The Great Waters Core
                                                           Project Management Group will serve as the liaison among
                                                           EPA's Assistant Administrators (AAs) and Regional
                                                           Administrators (RAs). Through this group, commitments
                                                           will be obtained from each of the AAs and RAs to earmark
                                                           funds for implementing the recommendations of this report
                                                           or to take a lead role in the implementation of specific
                                                           recommendations.

                                                        b. EPA should use the discretionary authority in existing
                                                           statutes  to regulate or prohibit multimedia environmental
                                                           releases  that cause or contribute to a water quality impair-
                                                           ment. The Administration wants to work with Congress
                                                           (e.g., on  Clean Water Act reauthorization) to develop
                                                           approaches  that would allow effective pollution control
                                                           where other Federal environmental statutes are not effec-
                                                           tive and where an integrated multimedia approach is the
                                                            most efficient means to reduce unacceptable risk. This
                                                            would not apply to mobile sources or pesticide programs.
                                                            EPA would use the most appropriate existing environmen-
                                                            tal statute (e.g., the Clean Air Act for air releases) for
                                                            controlling the release and would take into account the
                                                            factors of revised section 307(a)(2) of the Clean Water Act.

                                                         c.   Congress, with technical support from EPA, should develop
                                                             legislation to prohibit the exportation of any pesticide
                                                             product which contains an active ingredient that has been
                                                             banned  for all or virtually all uses in the United States.
                                                             The recommendation to prohibit the export of banned
                                                             pesticides was presented in the Report of the National
                                                             Performance Review: Creating a Government That Works
                                                             Better and Costs Less.117
  78

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                                               Chapter Four
                           Conclusions and Recommendations
d.  EPA will work with other countries to explore possible
    alternatives to reduce or eliminate the production, export,
    and use of pesticides banned in the United States.

e.  EPA will explore the feasibility of creating an inventory of
    pesticide use within the United States and of establishing
    a program to identify and quantify stockpiles and emis-
    sions of pesticides of known and potential concern, includ-
    ing banned pesticides.

f.   EPA will continue to emphasize pollution prevention as
    a goal and to encourage voluntary pollution prevention
    efforts that lead to reductions in releases of Great Waters
    pollutants of concern. Several pollution prevention projects
    that address Great Waters pollutants of concern are
    currently under way:

       •  A "Virtual Elimination Pilot Project" is under way in
         the Great Lakes Basin, as a part of a comprehensive
         toxics reduction effort. The Virtual Elimination Pilot
         Project proposes selecting a small group of toxics as a
         pilot and performing an in-depth analysis of oppor-
         tunities for reduction from all sources.

       •  EPA has initiated a project to reduce risks from
         PCBs by asking all utilities in the Great Lakes area
         to  voluntarily decommission their PCB electrical
         equipment.

       •  The Lake Superior Pollution Prevention Strategy
         was released in October 1993 as part of the Lake
         Superior  Binational Program.

       •  EPA, together with  State Departments of Agriculture
         and local government agencies, has funded a series
         of "Clean Sweeps" to collect and properly dispose of
         existing stocks of canceled pesticides from residents
         in  the Great Lakes area.

g.   EPA will continue its work with Canada, under the Great
    Lakes Water Quality Agreement, on airborne toxic sub-
    stances.  These  continuing bilateral efforts are assisting and
    will continue to assist in meeting Great Water program
    objectives during the 1990s.
                                                        79

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Chapter Four
Conclusions and Recommendations
                                                       h.  EPA will distribute technical information to State and local
                                                           air and water agencies to facilitate cooperative efforts
                                                           toward common goals to further reduce human and envi-
                                                           ronmental exposure to Great Waters HAPs.

                                                       i.  EPA will initiate discussions about possible mechanisms
                                                           that Kegional EPA offices and State agencies could use for
                                                           sharing information on new or renewal permit applications
                                                           for sources with the potential to emit Great Waters pollut-
                                                           ants of concern.

                                                    3. EPA will continue to support research activities and
                                                       will develop and implement a strategy describing
                                                       necessary research and policy assessments to address
                                                       the mandates of section 112(m).

                                                    Action Items
                                                       a.  EPA is developing a strategy to target research necessary
                                                           to answer the scientific questions outlined in section
                                                           112(m). The strategy will be reviewed by the EPA Science
                                                           Advisory Board and will influence decisionmaking on the
                                                           priority and funding for future research. This strategy will
                                                           focus on utilization of the mass-balance approach for deter-
                                                           mining relative loading and will acknowledge the need for
                                                           a balance between monitoring, modeling, and emission
                                                           inventory efforts for that work. The strategy will also
                                                           consider how to better identify those persistent-chemicals
                                                           with the tendency to bioaccumulate that may become prob-
                                                           lematic if emissions continue. Included in the strategy will
                                                           be an assessment of the need for development of took that
                                                           can be used to:  (1) assess and quantify the human health
                                                           and environmental risk from exposure  to air toxics,
                                                           especially via indirect exposure routes, and (2) quantify the
                                                           social, environmental,  and  economic benefits and costs of
                                                           pollution prevention and regulatory actions.

                                                        b.  EPA will continue to work with NOAA to pursue the devel-
                                                           opment and application of the appropriate technical tools to
                                                           further define and estimate loadings to the Great Waters
                                                           and to identify sources of atmospherically deposited
                                                           pollutants.
 80

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                                              Chapter Four
                          Conclusions and Recommendations
c.  Through the use of Great Waters Program funds and other
    resources, EPA will continue to support those research
    activities  identified as priorities by the research communi-
    ties and affirmed by the Great Waters Core Project
    Management Group.

       •  EPA will continue work on the characterization of
         processes and parameters for mass balance modeling
         and the verification of the mass balance methodology,
         especially the development of the prototype mass-
         balance program being conducted in Lake Michigan.

       •  EPA will work with State agencies to complete
         regional emission inventories for the Great Lakes and
         will complete a national screening level emission
         inventory for section 112(c)(6) chemicals (a group of
         six of the Great Waters pollutants), and will identify
         categories of sources of the specific pollutants listed
         in section 112(c)(6).

       •  EPA will continue source characterization and
         identification activities.

       •  EPA will complete and evaluate mercury screening
         level deposition models using screening emission
         inventories and will determine whether to transfer
         the method to other chemicals and to provide support
         for other more intensive regional air emission
         inventory efforts.

       •  EPA will continue to support ongoing monitoring
         efforts.

d. EPA will initiate discussions among the appropriate groups
   to identify ongoing benefits analysis efforts and human
   health (cancer and noncancer) and environmental risk
   assessment efforts within the Agency, in other Federal
   programs, in  other countries, in academia, and elsewhere.
   The goal is to define more clearly the research/data needs
   and to develop a long-term plan for developing tools and
   methods for benefits analyses and risk assessments.
                                                       81

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'"'"'"~"™'

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Chapter Five
References
                                     i.
                                     2.
                                     3.
                                     4.
                                    5.
                                    6.
                                    7.
 C.P. Rice and M.S. Evans, Toxaphene in the Great Lakes, in Toxic
 Contaminants in the Great Lakes, eds., J.O. Nriagu and M.S. Simmons
 (New York, NY:  John Wiley, 1984), 163-194.

 R.A. Rapaport, N.R. Urban, P.D. Capel, J.E. Baker, B.B. Looney,
 S.J. Eisenreich, and E. Gorham, "New" DDT inputs to North America:
 atmospheric deposition, Chemosphere 14, no. 9 (1985), 1167-1173.

 R.A. Rapaport and S.J. Eisenreich, Historical  atmospheric inputs of high
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 T.M. Church and J. R. Scudlark. 1992. The deposition and fate of trace
 metals in our environment (U.S. Forest Service Technical Report
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 National Atmospheric Deposition Program Symposium, Philadelphia, PA
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 IGF Incorporated, Atmospheric Deposition of Toxic Chemicals to Surface
 Waters: Identification and Summary of Recent Literature, prepared for
 Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental
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 J.E. Baker, T.M. Church, S.J. Eisenreich, W.F. Fitzgerald,  and J.R.
 Scudlark, Relative Atmospheric Loadings of Toxic Contaminants and
 Nitrogen to the Great Waters, prepared for Office of Air Quality Planning
 and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research
 Triangle Park, NC,  1993.

 G.J. Keeler, J. Pacyna, T. Bidleman, and J. Nriagu, Identification of
 Sources Contributing to the Contamination of the Great Waters by Toxic
 Compounds, prepared for Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC
 1993.

W. Swain, T. Colborn, C. Bason, R. Howarth, L. Lamey, B.  Palmer, and
D. Swackhamer, Exposure and Effects of Airborne Contamination,
prepared for Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, 1992.
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                                       9.  R. Arimoto, Atmospheric deposition of chemical contaminants to the
                                           Great Lakes, J. Great Lakes Res.  15, no. 2 (1989):339-356.

                                       10.  D.W. Harkins and R.E. Swain, Papers on smelter smoke, 1: The determi-
                                           nation of arsenic and other solid constituents of smelter smoke with
                                           study of the effects of high stacks and large condensing flues, Journal of
                                           Am. Ghent. Soc. 29 (1907):970-998.

                                       11.  J.K. Haywood, Injury to vegetation and animal life by smelter fumes,
                                           Journal of Am. Chem. Soc. 29 (1907):998-1009.

                                       12.  U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Reducing Risk: Setting Priorities
                                           and Strategies for Environmental Protection, Science Advisory Board,
                                           Washington, DC (SAB-EC-90-021),  1990.

                                       13.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, A Report to  Congress on the
                                           Great Lakes Ecosystem, Great Lakes National Program Office,  Chicago,
                                           IL, 1992 (draft).

                                       14.  Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry,  Toxicological Profile
                                           for a-, ft-, J-,  and 5-Hexachlorocyclohexane, U.S. Department of Health
                                           and Human Services,  U.S. Public Health Service, Washington, DC, 1992.

                                       15.  Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry,  Toxicological Profile
                                           forAldrin/Dieldrin, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,
                                           U.S. Public Health Service, Washington, DC, 1993.

                                       16.  Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry,  Toxicological Profile
                                           for Cadmium, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, U.S.
                                           Public Health Service, Washington, DC, 1992.

                                       17.  Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry,  Toxicological Profile
                                           for Chlordane, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, U.S.
                                           Public Health Service, Washington, DC, 1989.

                                       18. Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Toxicological Profile
                                           for DDT, DDE, and DDD, U.S. Department of Health and Human
                                            Services, U.S. Public  Health Service, Washington, DC, 1992.

                                       19.  Agency for Toxic Substances  and Disease Registry, Toxicological Profile
                                           for Hexachlorobenzene, U.S. Department of Health  and Human Services,
                                            U.S. Public Health Service, Washington, DC, 1990.

                                       20.  Agency for Toxic Substances  and Disease Registry, Toxicological Profile
                                            for Lead, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Public
                                            Health Service, Washington,  DC, 1992.
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28.
29.
30.
31.
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 for Polychlorinated Biphenyls, U.S. Department of Health and Human
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 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Suspended, Cancelled, and
 Restricted Pesticides, Office of Pesticides and Toxic Substances,
 Washington, DC, 1990.

 Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Toxicological Profile
 for Benzo(a)pyrene, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services,
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 Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Toxicological Profile
 for Toxaphene, U.S. Department  of Health and Human Services,
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 Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Toxicological Profile
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 U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Fact sheets of various pesticide
 regulatory actions developed in connection with EPA's nomination  to
 the international banned list (PIC list), Office of Pesticides and Toxic
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 IGF Incorporated, Focus Chemicals for the Clean Air Act Amendments
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 Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
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 on Great Lakes Biota:  Report of the Health of Aquatic Communities
 Task  Force, International Joint Commission, Great Lakes Regional
 Office, Windsor, Ontario, 1986.

Environment Canada, Toxic Chemicals in the Great Lakes and Associ-
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of Fisheries and Oceans, Health and Welfare Canada, Toronto, Ontario
1991.
                                                                      85

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                                      32.  Environment Canada, Toxic Chemicals in the Great Lakes and Associ-
                                           ated Effects: Synopsis, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Health and
                                           Welfare Canada, Toronto, Ontario, 1991.

                                      33.  Telephone conversation with Maryland Department of Health,
                                           March 16, 1993, Information on fishing consumption advisories in the
                                           Chesapeake Bay.

                                      34.  Facsimile, from Dr. Khizai Wasti to Virginia Department of Health,
                                           Bureau of Toxic Substances, Richmond, VA, March 16, 1993, Fishing
                                           restrictions and health advisories in effect for Virginia Eivers,
                                           Richmond, VA.

                                      35.  Telephone conversation with Mike Gaits, Vermont Department of
                                           Health, Environmental Health Division, April 14, 1993, Information
                                           on fishing consumption advisories in Lake Champlain.

                                       36.  Telephone conversation with Marie Zuroske, Thurston County Health
                                           Department, April 13, 1993, Information on fishing consumption
                                           advisory in Budd Inlet.

                                       37.  Telephone conversation with Tony Bossart, Kings County Health
                                           Department, April 12, 1993, Information on fishing consumption
                                           advisory in Duwamish River.

                                       38.  Environment Canada, Toxic Chemicals in the Great Lakes and Associ-
                                           ated Effects:  Volume II—Effects, Department of Fisheries and Oceans,
                                           Health and Welfare Canada, Toronto, Ontario,  1991.

                                       39.  Chesapeake Bay Program, Chesapeake Bay Water Column Contaminant
                                           Concentrations: Critical Issues Forum, Annapolis, Maryland, 1993.

                                       40.  U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Strategies, Goals, and Environ-
                                           mental Results: EPA's Environmental Progress  Report, Office of Policy,
                                           Planning, and Evaluation, Washington, DC, 1992 (draft).

                                       41. H.E. Hicks, Ph.D., and L.S. Katz, Ph.D., Impact on Public Health of
                                           Persistent Toxic Substances in the Great Lakes Region, U.S. Department
                                            of Health and Human Services, Public Health  Service, Agency for Toxic
                                            Substances and Disease Registry, Division of Toxicology, March 1992
                                            (draft), and works cited therein.

                                        42.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Consumption Surveys for Fish
                                            and  Shellfish: A Review and Analysis of Survey Methods, Office of
                                            Water, Washington, DC (WH-585), February 1992.

                                        43.  Clean Water Fund of Michigan, If It's Broke, Fix It: Why Michigan's
                                            Environmental Health Agencies Must Make Changes to Help Detroiters
                                            and Others Fish Without Fear, January 1993.
  86

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                                                             References
44.  N.C. Department of Environmental Health and Natural Resources,
     NC Lake Assessment Report, Department of Environmental Manage-
     ment, Raleigh, NC (Report No. 92-02), June 1992.

45.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality Inven-
     tory: 1990 Report to Congress, Office of Water, Washington, DC
     (EPA 503/9-92-006), 1992.

46.  Harold Humphrey (ed.), Editors note:  Environmental contaminants &
     reproductive outcomes, Health & Environment Digest 5, no. 8 (1991).

47.  J. L. Jacobson and S. W. Jacobson, A 4-year followup study of children
     born to consumers of Lake Michigan fish, J. Great Lakes Res. 19, no. 4
     (1993):776-783.

48.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Effects Assessment
     Summary Tables, Office of Health and Environmental Assessment,
     Environmental Assessment and Criteria Office, Cincinnati, OH, for the
     Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response, Office of Emergency and
     Remedial Response, Washington, DC [OERR 9200.6-303(91-1)], 1991.

49.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Integrated Risk  Information
     System (IRIS), Online, Office of Research and Development, Office of
     Health and Environmental Assessment, Environmental Criteria and
     Assessment Office, Cincinnati, OH, 1993.

50.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Effects Assessment for
     Chlordane, Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office, Cincinnati,
     OH (ECAO-CIN-H023a), 1988.

51.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Effects Assessment for
     DDT, Environmental Criteria and  Assessment Office, Cincinnati, OH
     (ECAO-CIN-H026a), 1988.

52.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Effects Assessment for
     Dieldrin, Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office, Cincinnati, OH
     (EPA/600/8-88/030), 1987.

53.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Effects Assessment for
     Toxaphene, Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office, Cincinnati,
     OH (EPA/600/8-88/056), 1987.

54.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Reportable Quantity Document
     for Lead, Environmental Criteria and Assessment Office, Cincinnati, OH
     (ECAO-CIN-R134A), 1990.

55.  Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry, Toxicological Profile
     for Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons, U.S. Department  of Health and
     Human Services, U.S. Public Health Service, Washington, DC, 1990.

                                                                    87

-------
References
                                       56.   M.A. Gallo, R.J. Scheduplein, and R.A. Van Der Heijden, eds., Biolog-
                                           ical Basis for Risk Assessment ofDioxins and Related Compounds
                                           (Banbury Report No. 35), Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press, 1991.

                                       57.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Drinking Water Regulations and
                                           Health Advisories, Office of Water, Washington, DC, 1992.

                                       58.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA Quality Criteria for Water
                                           1986, Washington, DC (EPA 440/5-86-001), 1986.

                                       59.  International Joint Commission, Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement
                                           of 1978, Windsor, Ontario, 1978, as cited in Reference 31.

                                       60.  Personal communication, H.  Garabedian, State of Vermont, Department
                                           of Environmental Conservation, Waterbury, VT, Unpublished data
                                           (provided in 1993).

                                       61.  T. Colborn, F.S. vom Saal, and A.M. Soto, Developmental effects of
                                           endocrine-disrupting chemicals in wildlife and humans, Environ. Health
                                           Perspectives 101 (1993):378-384.

                                       62.  D.L. Davis, H.L. Bradow, M. Wolff, T.  Woodruff, D.G. Hoel, and
                                           H. Anton-Culver, Medical hypothesis:  Xenoestrogens as preventable
                                           causes of breast cancer, Environ. Health Perspectives 101 (1993):372-377.

                                       63.  W.F. Fitzgerald and T.W. Clarkson, Mercury and monomethylmercury:
                                           Present and future concerns, Environ.  Health Perspectives 96 (1991):
                                           159-166.

                                       64.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Tribes at Risk: The Wisconsin
                                           Tribes Comparative Risk Project, Region 5, Policy, Planning, and Evalua-
                                           tion, Chicago, IL (EPA 230-R-92-017),  1992.

                                       65.  Chesapeake Executive Council, Chesapeake Bay Agreement - 1992
                                           Amendments, Annapolis, MD, 1992.

                                       66.  J. Burke, G.J. Keeler, and T. Scherbatskoy. An investigation  of atmo-
                                           spheric mercury in the Lake Champlain Basin, in Proceedings: Interna-
                                           tional Conference on Heavy Metals  in the Environment, Toronto, Canada,
                                           September 1993.

                                       67.  M. Hoyer, J. Burke, L. Cleckner, K. Mukherjee, G.J. Keeler. Mercury in
                                           precipitation: A multi-site study in Michigan, in Proceedings: Interna-
                                           tional Conference on Heavy Metals  in the Environment, Toronto, Canada,
                                           September 1993.
 88

-------
                                                              References
68.  G.J. Keeler, M.E. Hoyer, and C. Lamborg, Atmospheric mercury
     measurements in the Great Lakes Basin: Methods comparisons and
     recent findings, in eds., J. Huckabee, and C. Watrous, Mercury as a
     Global Pollutant-Toward Integration and Synthesis, Boca Raton, FL,
     Lewis Publishers,  1993.

69.  G.J. Keeler, Lake Michigan Urban Air Toxics Study, Atmospheric Re-
     search and Exposure Assessment Laboratory, Office of Research and
     Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
     Park, NC, 1994.

70.  D.A. Wolfe, R. Monhahan, P.E. Stacey, D.R.G. Farrow, and A. Robertson,
     Environmental quality of Long Island Sound: Assessment and manage-
     ment issues, Estuaries 14 (1991).

71.  U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency, Documentation for Developing
     the Initial Source Category List: Final Report, Office of Air Quality
     Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC,  1992.

72.  Radian Corporation,  Locating and Estimating Air Emissions from
     Sources ofDioxins and Furans, Prepared for the Emission Inventory
     Branch of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
     Park, NC, 1993 (draft).

73.  U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency, National Air Pollutant Emission
     Trends, 1900-1992, Office of Air Quality  Planning and  Standards,
     Research Triangle Park, NC (EPA-454/R-93-032), 1993.

74.  U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency, National Emissions Inventory of
     Mercury and Mercury Compounds:  Interim  Final Report (EPA-453/R-93-
     048), 1993.

75.  Lake Ontario Secretariat, Lake Ontario Toxics Management Plan,
     1993 Update, Volume I, 1993.

76.  Great Lakes Science  Advisory Board, 1991 Report to the International
     Joint Commission, Ontario, Canada, 1991.

77.  Report of the National Performance Review:  Creating a Government
     That Works Better and Costs Less, Washington, DC, September 1993,
     page 139.

78.  R.J.J. Stevens and M.A. Neilson, Inter- and intra-lake  distributions
     of trace organic contaminants in surface  waters of the Great Lakes,
     Journal of Great Lakes Research  15  (1989):377-393.

79.  Personal communication, D. DeVault, U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, Great Lakes National Program Office, Chicago, IL, Unpublished
     data (provided in 1993).
                                                                     89

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/.»•**  -^   *        "-.

                                                  :»*** ;;X!€

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                                                                               Appendices
Appendices
                              Appendix A:  Lists of Bioaccumulative Chemicals of Concern and
                                          Potential Bioaccumulative Chemicals of Concern


                              Appendix B:  Comparison of Great Lakes Sampling Data
                                          to Various Water Quality Benchmarks


                              Appendix C:  Historical EPA Regulations


                              Appendix D:  Summary of Clean Air Act Section 112 Activities


                              Appendix E:  Progress Under Section 112(m)


                              Appendix F:  Summary of MACT Source Categories Potentially
                                          Emitting Great Waters Pollutants of Concern


                              Appendix G:  Preliminary Summary of Research
                                          and Program Planning

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-------
                                                                                                          Appendix A
 Appendix A
    Bioaccumulative Chemicals of Concern
Potential Bioaccumulative Chemicals of Concern
       Aldrin
       4-Bromophenyl phenyl ether
       Chlordane
       4,4-DDD; p,p-DDD; 4,4-TDE; p,p-TDE
       4,4-DDE; p,p-DDE
       4,4-DDT; p,p-DDT
       Dieldrin
       Endrin
       Heptachlor
       Heptachlor epoxide
       Hexachlorobenzene
       Hexachlorobutadiene; hexachloro-l,3-butadiene
       Hexachlorocyclohexane; BHC
       a-Hexachlorocyclohexane; a-BHC
       p-Hexachlorocyclohexane; P-BHC
       8-Hexachlorocyclohexane; 5-BHC
       Lindane; y-BHC; y-hexachlorocydohexane
       Mercury
       Methoxychlor
       Mirex; dechlorane
       Octachlorostyrene
       PCBs; polychlorinated biphenyls
       Pentachlorobenzene
       Photomirex
       2,3,7,8-TCDD; dioxin
       1,2,3,4-Tetrachlorobenzene
       1,2,4,5-Tetrachlorobenzene
       Toxaphene
       Benzo[a]pyrene; 3,4-benzopyrene
       3,4-Benzofluoranthene; benzo[6]fluoranthene
       11,12-Benzofluoranthene; benzo[&]fluoranthene
       1,12-Benzoperylene; benzo^ijperylene
       4-Chlorophenyl phenyl ether
       l,2:5,6-Dibenzanthracene; dibenz[a,/i]anthracene
       Dibutyl phthalate; di-n-butyl phthalate
       Indeno[l,2,3-cd]pyrene; 2,3-o-phenylene pyrene
       Phenol
       Toluene; methylbenzene
Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Proposed water quality guidance for the Great Lakes system: Proposed rule
       and correction, Federal Register 58:20802-21047, April 16, 1993.
                                                                                                                A-l

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-------
                                        Appendix B
Appendix B:
Comparison of Great Lakes Sampling Data
to Various Water Quality Benchmarks (in ppb)
                                           B-l

-------
Appendix B
 Comparison of Great Lakes Sampling Data to Various Water Quality Benchmarks (ppb)
1 1
.Pollutant
Cadmium
Chlordane
DDT/DDE
Dieldrin
Hexachlorobenzene
a-HCH
Lindane
Lead
Mercury
PCBs
Benzo(a)pyrene
(indicator of POM)
2,3,7,8-TCDP
2,3,7,8-TCDD
Toxaphene
National
AWQC:
Fresh Water
Aquatic Lifea
1.1
0.0043
0.001f
0.0019
—
—
0.08
3.2
0.012
0.014
—
—
0.00001
0.0002
National
AWQC:
Human
Health*
10
0.0046
0.00024f
0.00071
0.0072
0.092
0.186
50
0.144
0.00079
0.028h
—
0.00000013
0.0071
Proposed ;
Great Lakes
Water Quality
Criteria*1
0.78
0.0002
0.00000087
0.0001
0.0001
—
0.7
—
0.00018
0.000017
—
—
0.0000000096
0.00002
'"..•• Great Lakes
Water Quality
Agreement
Objectives'1
0.2
0.06
0.003
0.001g
—
—
0.01
10-25
0.2
—
—
—

0.008
 a Values listed are for fresh water chrome criteria except for 2,3,7,8-TCDD, which is the fresh water chronic lowest observed effects level
  (LOEL). Values for cadmium and lead are hardness dependent (based on 100 mg/L CaC03).
 b Values listed are for human chronic exposure through both fish consumption and drinking water; values for potential carcinogens
  correspond to a 10"5 individual cancer risk level.58
 c Values listed are the most stringent (i.e., lowest) among those proposed for protection of human health, aquatic life, or wildlife;
  values for potential carcinogens correspond to a 10"5 individual cancer risk level.  Value for cadmium is hardness dependent
  (based on 50 mg/L CaC03).59
 d Values listed are for protection of the most sensitive user of the water among humans, aquatic life, or wildlife.  '
 c Concentrations are the maximum post-1980 open water sampling values reported in Eeferences 31, 78, and 79 (sampling data are
  for 1980-1986). Values in bold indicate exceedance of at least one criterion. Sources of data  are as follows:  a = Reference 78;
  b = Strachan and Eisenreich 1988, as cited in Reference 31; c = Rossman 1984 and 1986, as cited in Reference 31; d = Reference 79.
 f Value for DDT only.
 8 Value for aldrin/dieldrin combined.
 hValue for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.
 ' Measured water concentrations were beneath detection levels.
 B-2

-------
Appendix B
Maximum Open Water Concentrations6
Erie
0.32°
0.0001a
0.000096a
O.OOll3
0.00026a
0.0065a
0.0025a
3°
0.14°
0.0035a
0.0003b
nd1
nd1
nd1
Huron
0.061°
0.00007a
0.000046a
0.000693
0.000073a
0.011a
0.0014a
O.llc
0.35°
0.0023a
0.0001b
nd1
nd1
nd1
Michigan
0.087C
no data
0.0002b
0.0003b
0.00006b
0.01b
0.0007b
0.48b
O.llb
0.002b
0.001b
nd1
nd1
nd1
Ontario
0.12b
X0000743
0.000143 i
0.000513
0.00011a
0.0059a
0.0023a
0.4b
0.025b
0.00263
0.0003b
nd1
nd1
nd1
Superior
0.044°
0.0006a
ot detected
0.00043a
0.00004a
0.011a
0.0014a
0.13°
0.12b
0.00058a
0.0001b
iid1
nd1
nd;
        B-3

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                                                                                                         Appendix C
 Appendix  C
 Historical EPA Regulations

Authority
Clean Air Act
(1970 - present)
C*4- -t-!
stationary
Sources








Clean Air Act
(1970 - present)
Mobile Sources








Federal
Insecticide,
Fungicide, and
Rodenticide
Act (FIFRA)
(1972 - present)
Toxic
Substances
Control Act
(1976 - present)
Superfund Amend-
ments and Reau-
thorization Act
(1976 - present)


Action
National Ambient Air
Quality Standards for
Criteria Pollutants








National Emission
Standards for
Hazardous Air
Pollutants
Emissions Controls













Emergency Planning
and Community
light-to-Know
EPCRA)

GW Pollutants
Controlled
Lead, Particulate Matter,a
Nitrogen Oxides








Mercury

Nitrogen Oxides,
Particulate Matter,
Lead








Mercury, Chlordane,
DDT/DDE, Hexachloro-
benzene, Lindane,
Toxaphene

PCBs

All except nitrogen
compounds, dieldrin, DDT/
DDE, 2,3,7,8-TCDD,
2,3,7,8-TCDF, and some
POM.b

Notes
These "health-based" standards established safe concen-
tration levels of six criteria pollutants, three of which are
not currently of concern to the Great Waters. States are
responsible for implementing regulations to keep the
levels of air pollution below these concentrations and
are provided guidance by the EPA. States must submit
plans to EPA for how areas will meet these standards.
Guidance to States includes an identification of alternative
control techniques for sources in various industries includ-
ing incinerators, smelters, electric utilities, cement plants,
and wood stoves.
These standards set emission limits for various hazardous
air pollutants. Mercury emissions from ore processing
facilities, mercury cell chlor-alkali plants, and sludge
drying plants were regulated.
The Clean Air Act required reductions in emissions from
auto exhaust, set more stringent fuel economy standards,
and required inspection and maintenance (KM) programs
to locate malfunctioning emission control systems. Since
1970, lead emissions from automobiles have been reduced
by approximately 90%.
The 1990 Amendments require lower tailpipe standards;
more stringent emissions testing procedures; expanded
I/M programs; new vehicle technologies; introduction of a
range of clean fuels programs; clean transportation provi-
sions; and possible regulation of emissions from nonroad
vehicles.
This Act provides the authority for banning and restrict-
ing the use of pesticides containing these chemicals in
the U.S. according to how and where they are used.
It requires registration of all pesticides and reporting
of any exported pesticides.

In addition to other requirements, this Act bans the
manufacture, processing, distribution in commerce, and
use of PCBs except in totally closed systems and estab-
lishes rules for disposal of PCBs.
Establishes new authorities for emergency planning and
preparedness, community right-to-know reporting, and
toxic chemical release reporting.

UP °f a
°f substances ^ mav Mudfl the
                                                                                               pollutants of concern:
Reporting of releases of these pollutants is not currently required, mainly due to their low emissions. EPA is taking comment on modi-
 fications to EPCRA 313 requirements, such as lowering the reporting thresholds to ensure that release and transfer information is
 obtained for certain persistent pollutants. (See proposed rule: 59 FR 1788, January 12, 1994.)

Note:  This table documents EPA legislation that has reduced emissions of Great Waters pollutants directly into the air
     It does not account for other legislation that may have reduced these pollutants from other sources that may eventually      C-l
     be emitted to the air. Other such sources may include effluent released to waterbodies and runoff from agriculture

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                                                                                                        Appendix D
Appendix  D
 Summary of Clean Air Act Section 112 Activities?
Subsection
112(c)(6)
112(d)
112(g)
112(0
112(j)
112(k)
112(m)
112(n)(l)(A)
112(n)(l)(B)
Affected Pollutant
Lead compounds, Hexachlorobenzene,
Mercury, FOB, 2,3,7,8-TCDF,
2,3,7,8-TCDD, POM
All GW pollutants except nitrogen compounds
All GW pollutants except nitrogen compounds
All GW pollutants except nitrogen compounds
All GW pollutants except nitrogen compounds
Not yet determined
All GW pollutants
Potentially: Mercury, Cadmium,
Lead, POM, TCDF, TCDD
Mercury
Year
Due
2000
1991-2000
1992
Beginning
in 2001
1994
1999
1993
and every
2 years
thereafter
1995
1994
, - Comments
Eequires regulations for "sources accounting for 90%
of the aggregate emissions of each such pollutant."
Requires regulations for all sources emitting 10 tons
of any one hazardous air pollutantb or 25 tons total.
These sources must have "maximum achievable control
technology" (MACT). Smaller sources can be regulated
in certain cases.
Requires MACT for new or modified sources.
Evaluation of remaining health risk (residual risk)
to public after application of the Section 112 standards.
Additional standards to reduce residual risk.
If any Section 112 standard is not promulgated in
accordance with the schedule,0 the individual
sources become responsible for controlling their
emissions subject to State approval.
90% of emissions of 30 hazardous air pollutants that
pose the greatest threat to public health must be
regulated.
Reports to Congress due on the status of the Great
Waters program including regulatory recommendations.
A report to Congress to assess the need for further
regulation on this industry.
A report to Congress will document the health and
environmental effects of mercury emissions and the
technologies available to control them.
aUnder section 112(m), the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990, requires a determination of whether the other provisions of this section
 are adequate to prevent serious adverse effects to public health and serious or widespread environmental effects. This table is designed
 to alert the reader to other pertinent activities that affect Great Waters pollutants. Nitrogen compounds are not addressed under Title
 III of the 1990 Clean Air Act, but they are addressed under Titles I, II, and IV.
bSection 112 of the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990, contains a list of 189 hazardous air pollutants.
c National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants Schedule for the Promulgation of Emission Standards under section 112(e)
 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (58 FR 63941, December 3, 1993).
                                                                                                               D-l

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                                                                                              Appendix E
Appendix E
Progress Under Section 112 (m)
                                                Section 112(m), "the Great Waters program," was written into
                                            the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1990, to complement existing
                                            programs working to address water quality problems in the Great
                                            Lakes and other waterbodies. In fact, the requirements are similar to
                                            Annex 15 of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement, which the EPA
                                            is working to fulfill.
                                                The EPA began planning for the Great Waters program during
                                            the summer of 1990. Since then, a great deal of work has taken place
                                            through the cooperation of many EPA program offices, laboratories, and
                                            regional offices. Other agencies participating actively in the Great
                                            Waters program are the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminis-
                                            tration (NOAA) and the appropriate States.
                                                Below is a summary of the activities that have been undertaken
                                            by the Agency and the progress on specific monitoring requirements.
                                            There is also related work taking place by non-Federal parties, such
                                            as emission inventory efforts by State agencies, which will not be
                                            addressed in detail here. However, EPA is working closely with the
                                            State agencies, and is leveraging their efforts whenever possible and
                                            appropriate. These complementary State efforts are necessary to the
                                            accomplishment of the goals of the Great Waters program.
                                    Progress by EPA
                                           Development of a screening level literature review, providing an assess-
                                           ment of what kind and amount of information is available on the issue
                                           of atmospheric deposition of hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) to aquatic
                                           ecosystems

                                           Development of an assessment of the 1990 Amendments list of 189
                                           HAPs to determine which are most likely to be problematic when
                                           deposited into aquatic systems

                                           Intra-agency leveraging of relevant activities, including:
                                             - Lake Michigan Urban Air Toxics Study
                                             — Great Lakes deposition estimates for Lake Michigan
                                             - Metals monitoring in Chesapeake Bay area (with NOAA)
                                             - NOX deposition modeling in Chesapeake Bay
                                             - Modification and extension of Chesapeake Bay Atmospheric
                                                Deposition Study
                                                                                                    E-l

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Appendix E
                                                  - Sample analysis for Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Study,
                                                     a U.S./Canadian cooperative network
                                                  - Great Lakes regional toxics emission inventory (with the Great
                                                     Lakes Commission/States)
                                                  - Compilation of available emission inventory data on a
                                                     national scale.

                                                Analysis of existing ambient air metals samples for Gulf of Mexico
                                                States

                                                Conduct of a scoping level mass-balance for nitrogen for Gulf of Mexico

                                                Preparation of three support documents by technical experts to address
                                                the three main scientific questions defined in Section 112(m) of the
                                                Clean Air Act: relative loading, effects, and source identification

                                                Sponsorship of a major workshop for peer review of support  documents

                                                Production of a descriptive brochure of the Great Waters program
                                                and the waterbodies included

                                                Development of a research planning guidance document

                                                Preparation of a national screening level emission inventory for
                                                the specific pollutants in Section 112(c)(6)

                                                Prototype long-range mercury transport modeling

                                                Prototype indirect mercury exposure modeling

                                                Development of a screening level atmospheric loading assessment for
                                                Galveston Bay, using a suite of chemicals and a method to complement
                                                work in Chesapeake Bay

                                                Assessment of over-water versus onshore siting for samplers

                                                Assessment of urban contribution to atmospheric loading

                                                Deposition sampling for loading assessments

                                                Development (with Great Lake States) of Lakewide Management Plans
                                                (LaMPs), first for Lake Michigan, that have a requirement for assess-
                                                ment of pollutant loading and planning for elimination of water quality
                                                effects. Some relevant activities under this program are:
                                                   - Development of a mass balance for PCBs in Green Bay
                                                   - Lake Michigan Urban Air Toxics Study
E-2

-------
                                                             Appendix E
          -  Monitoring for tributary and air loads for Lake Michigan
          -  Evaluation of direct loading and sediment contribution to water
             pollution
     B  Integration of air and water models for mass-balance calculations

     II  Working with the Agency on Toxic Substances Disease Registry
        (ATSDR) evaluating chemical exposure from consumption of Great
        Lakes fish and health effects on a variety of sensitive or highly exposed
        population subgroups

     n  Working with ATSDR to conduct an air toxics monitoring study in
        conjunction with EPA Region 5 and Southeast Chicago Initiative.
Progress on Specifically Mandated Monitoring Networks

     n  Five master (regional background) stations collecting wet and dry toxics
        deposition samples on each of the Great Lakes, begun in 1992 as part
        of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network—a joint effort
        between the United States and Canada

     n  Three stations collecting toxics for the Chesapeake Bay, begun in
        1990—a joint effort between EPA and the Bay States

     n  State-run toxics deposition programs for Lake Champlain, which are
        to be enhanced through the Lake Champlain Management Conference
        under the Lake Champlain Special Designation Act of 1990; and
        mercury deposition monitoring for the Lake

Progress by NOAA on Section 112(m) Issues

     H  Cooperation with the Lake Champlain Research Consortium and the
        Vermont Monitoring Cooperative to conduct mercury monitoring and
        research on wet and dry deposition of nutrients and HAPs and on mod-
        els for meso-scale deposition in the Lake Champlain basin

     B  Establishment and operation of the Atmospheric Nutrient Input to
        Coastal Areas (ANICA) program to develop deposition sampling data
        for modeling of atmospheric input, especially to the Chesapeake Bay

     B  Establishment and operation of the Atmospheric Integrated Research
        Monitoring Network (AIRMoN), an activity using state-of-the-art
        measurement technologies that should provide quick indication of the
        impact of Clean Air Act emission reductions on national air quality.
                                                                    E-3

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-------
                                                                   Appendix F
Appendix F
Summary of MACT Source Categories Potentially Emitting Great Waters Pollutants
of Concern3
MA.CT Source Category
Industrial Boilers
Institutional/Commercial Boilers
Process Heaters
Primary Aluminum Production
Secondary Aluminum Production
Primary Copper Smelting
Primary Lead Smelting
Secondary Lead Smelting
Lead Acid Battery Manufacturing
Coke By-Product Plants
Ferroalloys Production
Integrated Iron and Steel Manufacturing
Non-Stainless Steel Manufacturing -
Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) Operation
Stainless Steel Manufacturing -
Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) Operations
Iron Foundries
Steel Foundries
Steel Pickling - HCL Process
Asphalt Concrete Manufacturing
Asphalt Processing
Lime Manufacturing
Portland Cement Manufacturing
Petroleum Refineries - Catalytic Cracking
(Fluid and Other) Units, Catalytic
Reforming Units, and Sulfur Plant Units
Petroleum Refineries -
Other Sources not Distinctly Listed
Gasoline Distribution (Stage 1)
Cadmium ,
Compounds
•
•
•

«
•
«




•
•


•



•
•
•
•

Lead
Compounds
•
•
•
•
•

•
•
•

•
•
•
•
•
•

•

•
•
•
•

Mercury
Compounds
•
•



•
•





•


•



•
•
•
•

POM
•
•

•





•

•



•
•

•




•
Regulation
Promulgation
Schedule
11/15/2000
11/15/2000
11/15/2000
11/15/1997
11/15/1997
11/15/1997
11/15/1997
4/30/1995b
11/15/2000
11/15/2000
11/15/1997
11715/2000
11/15/1997
11/15/1997
11/15/2000
11/15/1997
11715/1997
11/15/2000
11/15/2000
11/15/2000
11/15/1997
11/15/1997
6/30/95b
ll/23/1994b
                                                                    (continued)
                                                                        P-l

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Appendix F
Summary of MACT Source Categories Potentially Emitting Great Waters Pollutants
of Concern3 (continued)
ll 111 II 1 III 1 1 1 1 '
(ilACT Source Category
Auto and Light Duty Truck
(Surface Coating)
Printing, Coating, and Dyeing of Fabrics
Hazardous Waste Incinerators
Sewage Sludge Incinerators
Synthetic Organic Chemical
Manufacturing
Dry Cleaning
Plywood/Particle Board
Pulp and Paper Production
Cadmium
Compounds


•
•



•
Lead
Compounds


•
•



•
Mercury
Compounds


•
•



•
POM
•
•


•
•
•

Regulation
Promulgation.
Schedule
11/15/2000
11/15/2000
11/15/2000
11/15/2000
2/28/1994
11/15/1992
11/15/2000
11/15/1997
"The information in this table was extracted from the documents EPA-450/3-21-030 Documentation for Developing the Initial Source
  Category List and EPA 455/R-93-048 National Emissions Inventory of Mercury and Mercury Compounds: Interim Final Report.
  These documents represent preliminary data only. Pollutants other than those listed may prove to be present in emissions from these
  listed sources as more information on source categories becomes available.
b Court-ordered deadlines.
  Note: If the EPA misses the deadlines in this schedule for promulgating Federal emissions standards by at least 18 months, section
  112(j) of the 1990 Amendments requires State and local agencies to establish case-by-case emission standards. Theses case-by-case
  standards must be equal to the level of control that would have been required by the Federal emission standards.
 F-2

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                                                                                             Appendix G
Appendix G
Preliminary Sranmary of Research
and Program Planning
                                               With the completion of this first report and the ensuing discus-
                                           sions within and outside EPA, it is now appropriate to assess the future
                                           needs and direction of the program, the state of the knowledge, and the
                                           kinds of efforts needed to provide the necessary information on deposi-
                                           tion of air pollutants to the Great Waters. Given that the problem of
                                           atmospheric deposition of toxics to aquatic ecosystems is vastly complex
                                           and that much of the research in this area is extremely expensive, EPA
                                           and other Federal agencies must now determine where efforts are best
                                           spent to collect the most important information to meet the mandate of
                                           Section 112(m) of the Clean Air Act.
                                               The EPA is working on a program strategy to target the most
                                           effective efforts. A preliminary research planning guidance document
                                           was prepared that describes many of the efforts necessary to provide
                                           each kind of information: relative loading, emission inventory/source
                                           characterization, and ecological and human health effects. Summary
                                           charts are provided in this appendix to describe those tasks and to begin
                                           to rank subtasks. It should be noted that the charts on the following
                                           pages are a "first cut" at the research elements and program activities
                                           needed to better define and address these issues. There are undoubtedly
                                           activities that are needed that have not been listed here, and some of
                                           those listed may ultimately prove less important for decisionmaking.
                                           However, EPA, in concert with other Federal agencies, is developing an
                                           overall strategy to address Great Waters issues in the context of other
                                           environmental priorities. The strategy must recognize the realities of
                                           time Qiow long can we wait for an answer before we act or allow im-
                                           pacts by inaction) and money (what funds will continue to be available
                                           for research in this area) and define what activities are necessary to
                                           provide the important pieces of information.
                                               The strategy, anticipated to be completed by mid-1994, is still
                                          being developed, but the essence of it is this:  there must be three
                                          ongoing efforts that complement and provide information to each other:

                                               Long-term efforts will work toward developing a more certain
                                               picture and will provide feedback on the effectiveness of maximum
                                               achievable control technology (MACT) standards and other
                                               controls.
                                                                                                   G-l

-------
Appendix G
                                                    Short-term efforts will focus on important, transferrable 'infor-
                                                    mation, usable in an early time frame, especially for regulatory
                                                    decisionmaking. For example, the Lake Michigan loading/mass
                                                    balance work will provide an integrated picture of one geographic
                                                    area as well as provide a transferrable mass-balance methodology.

                                                    Justified action is the goal of the program—to determine what,
                                                    if any, action is needed to prevent adverse effects and to imple-
                                                    ment or recommend that action. This is not one final action, but
                                                    a continuum of problem recognition and solution definition over
                                                    time, as information becomes available through short- and long-
                                                    term efforts.

                                                    This strategy will be developed by the EPA Office of Air Quality
                                               Planning and Standards, jointly with the offices and agencies that
                                               participate in program decisionmaking through the Great Waters Core
                                               Project Management Group. It will also undergo peer review and will be
                                               available to interested parties through the Great Waters program.
                                                    The following six charts are the summary charts of the prelimi-
                                               nary research planning guidance document. This is a compilation of
                                               many of the tasks necessary to provide complete information on relative
                                               loading, effects, and source identification. Again, the strategy being
                                               developed will define the priority and schedule of the work
                                               according to the resulting information's importance, the ease
                                               with which it can be obtained, and its utility in determining the
                                               need for any additional regulations.
 G-2

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                                                                                            Appendix G
Ecological Effects Research and Program Needs
Technical
Need
Mechanisms
of Action


Population
Effects

Ecosystem
Effects


Research Issues
Long-term exposure studies with single or low-dose,
embryonic or developmental
Diverse mechanisms for individual effects and
diverse effects by individual mechanisms
Interaction of chemicals
Bioavailability
Effects in reptiles, amphibians, and
chondrichthian fishes
Thresholds for sensitive populations
Eutrophication
Ecosystem dynamics, including invader species
impacts
Broaden base of studied ecosystems to include
warmwater lakes, estuaries, and tropical marshes
Impact of relatively new contaminants
Preliminary
Priority
Banking
1
1
2
1
1
3
1
1
2
3
Estimated
Relative
, Costs
<5d.
'P'P'P
4**
vvv
$$$$

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Appendix G
Detailed Human Health-Related Effects Research Needs

Technical
Need
Multiple
reproductive
endpoint
studies of
men and
women









Develop-
mental
Effects


Neuro-
behavioral
Effects



Endocrino-
logical
Effects







Immuno-
logical
Effects





Research Issues
Reproductive couple:
Fertility
Reproductive behavior
Men:
Alterations in libido
Alterations in spermatogenesis
Alterations in reproductive tissue
Women:
Menarche
Menstrual cycle
Menopause
Time to pregnancy
Endometriosis
Pregnancy intervals
Contaminated breast milk
Long-term functional significance of effects
Diminished potential
Developmental biomarkers
Standardized/nonstandardized testing
replication studies
Alteration of dopamine production
Memory and attention deficits
Standardized vs. nonstandardized testing:
Cognitive processing efficiency
Vigilance/sustained attention
Activity level
Long-term functional significance of effects
Delayed effects:
Puberty
Senescence
Menopause
Sex hormones:
Libido
Spermatogenesis
Menstrual cycle
Thyroid hormone alterations
Long-term functional significance of effects
Immunosuppression
Immunoenhancement
Immunological responses and susceptibility:
Primary antibody response
Diseases of viral and bacterial origin
Preliminary
Priority
Ranking

1
2

2
1
I

2
I
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
I
1

1
1
2
1

1
2
2

2
1
1
2
1
1
2

1
2
Estimated
Relative
Costs' .

d»(f*dj
*

(fed?
w

$$
$$
$
$$

$
$$
$$

$
d»
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                                                                                       Appendix G
Human Health-Related Effects Research and Program Needs
Technical
Need
Research
Compounds
Biomarker
Development
Noncancer
Endpoints
Interdisciplinary
Organization
HERL
NIEHS
GLIN
RIEN
RISP
Research. Issues
Identify effects across a broader range
of compounds

See detailed table for research issues
Information networks
Vehicle for multidisciplinary research
Symposia
Preliminary
Priority
Ranking
2
3
1
1
1
1
Estimated
Relative
Costs
44*
•PW
$$

$$
64*
vvv
$
Short-ferm
Benefit
Above average
Unknown

High
High
High
Long-Term
Benefit
Above average
Unknown

High
High
High
Source: Great Waters Technical Planning Guidance, July 30, 1993.
                                                                                             G-5

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Appendix G
Monitoring Research and Program Needs
Technical Need
and Programs
Atmospheric Deposition
Monitoring Networks
GLAD (Great Lakes)
IADN (Great Lakes)
L. Michigan Network
Chesapeake Bay Network
L. Champlain Station
Narragansett, Delaware,
Massachusetts, and
other bays
National as applied to
Coastal
Atmospheric Measurements
(same as above)
Atmospheric Deposition
Processes
Research Issues
Siting
Trace organic monitoring
Qualify control
Data compatibility with other
stations and networks
Coordination among network parties
Spatial and temporal variability
Inland vs. shoreline vs. open lake
sites
Quality control
Meteorological
Rain, snow, and fog scavenging
Gas/particle partitioning
Particle deposition velocity
Preliminary
Priority
Ranking
2
1
1
2
3
1
2
1
2
1
2
I
•' Estimated; •
Relative
• .:. 'Costs • ,•
$$
$$$
*djd>

-------
                                                                                        Appendix G
Atmospheric Modeling Research and Program Needs
Technical
Need
Source
Attribution

Transport
Description

Model
Interactions
Research Issues
Collect ambient and source signature data for
source-receptor modeling and apportionment,
including source profiles and tracer compounds
Pollutant exchange process: air-soil-plant
Three-dimensional windfields and diffusion
coefficients
Precipitation field effects
Nested regional models
Nested hemispheric and/or global scale models
Preliminary
Priority
Ranking
1
1
2
I
1
2
Estimated
Relative
Costs
****
•PW'P
$$
$$
$$
d;**
vvv
d?d?d>tfc
WViP
Short-Term
• Benefit
High
High
Above average
High
High
High
Long-Term
Benefit
High
High
Above average
High
High
High
Source: Great Waters Technical Planning Guidance, July 30, 1993.
                                                                                              G-7

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Appendix G
Emission Inventory and Source Characterization Research and Program Needs
., 	 , 	 	 ; 	 v •
Technical Need
Statewide Emission Inventory
California Air Research Board
GLC (8 Great Lakes States)
Other local areas and States
are also involved in developing
HAP emission inventories,
including Puget Sound,
Louisiana, Maryland, Texas,
Arizona, and New Mexico
Regional Emissions Inventory
GLC
Development of re-emission
estimates for Hg and OC pesti-
cides that have been discontin-
ued in the United States
Definition and Characterization
of Urban Air Plume
Lake Michigan and Chesapeake
Bay Cooperative Agreement
(LMCB)
Southwest Lake Michigan
Urban Area Air Toxic Inventory
Research Issues
Quality control
Maximal bottom-up data
Chemical focus
Coordination of inventories
Completeness of source types
and chemical speciation
Define PCBs, POMs, and
TCDDs/TCDFs for inventory
purposes
Same as above
Development of analytical
methods to determine
re-emission
Development of re-emission
estimates
Increased availability of pesticide
manufacturing and usage data
See emission inventory priorities
(above) and modeling section
of report
Preliminary
Priority
Banking
1
1
2
3
I
2

2
2
1

Estimated
..Relative '•:
. '.';. 'Costs" TV
****
wW>
$$$$
$$
$
$$$
$$

$$
4>4>
-------
                                                                                    Appendix G
Atmospheric Component of Mass Balance Studies Research and Program Needs


Technical Need
Loading Estimates
Lake Michigan Mass Budget/
Mass Balance
Chesapeake Bay Basin-Wide
Toxics Reduction



Wet Deposition




Dry Deposition






Microlayer









_ [Research. Issues ,
Increase understanding
of atmospheric deposition
processes
Improve accuracy of loading
estimates, particularly for
atmospheric deposition


Speciation of trace elements,
Hg, and N (DON)
Gas/aerosol distribution of SOCs
Aerosol scavenging coefficient
of SOCs
Aerosol deposition velocity of
trace elements and SOCs
SOC speciation in water
Hg aerosol reactivity
DON aerosol concentration
Nitrogen gas/water partitioning
Hg gas exchange (flux)
Improved sampling
methodologies
Development of assay techniques
Biologic effects research
Process research and integration
into air and mass balance
models
Microlayer symposium
' Preliminary
Priority
Ranking '
1


1




2

2
2

1

1
1
1
1
1
2

1
2
2


1
Estimated
Relative ,
- Costs
These rela-
tive costs are
discussed in
the specific
research areas
within the
planning
guidance.
d>d>d>
VW

$$
$$

***
PPv


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                                      TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                                (Please read Instructions on reverse before completing)
   1. REPORT NO.
     EPA-453/R-93-055
                   3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
  4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
     First Report to Congress on Deposition of Air Pollutants to the
     Great Waters
                                                                     5. REPORT DATE
                                                                       May 1994
                   6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
  7. AUTHOR(S)
     Amy B. Vasu and Melissa L. McCullough
                   8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
  9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS

     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
     Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
     Emission Standards Division
     Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
                   10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
                  11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
                    68-D2-0065
                    68-D2-0189
  12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
                                                                     13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                                                                     14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
  IS. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
  16. ABSTRACT
      This report provides an assessment of the following:  (1) the contribution of atmospheric deposition
  to pollutant loadings to the Great Lakes, Chesapeake Bay, Lake Champlain, and coastal waters (i.e., "the
  Great Waters"),  (2) the environmental and human health effects caused by the deposited pollutants, (3)
  the  sources of these pollutants, and (4) whether atmospheric loadings cause or contribute to exceedances
  of water quality standards or criteria.  The report also includes recommendations for actions to be taken
  to address this air and water quality problem.  Recommendations include EPA committing to do the
  following:  to propose certain emission standards early for some sources of Great Waters pollutants, to
  consider further regulation of some area sources that emit Great Waters pollutants, to propose a revised
  Municipal Waste Combustor rule by summer 1994, and to publish an advance notice of proposed
  rulemaking to establish lesser-quantity emission rates for sources emitting less than 10 tons annually of
  Great Waters pollutants.  Additional recommendations, addressing authorities beyond the Clean Air Act
  and also focusing on further research efforts, are included in the report.
  17.
                                       KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                    DESCRIPTORS
                                                   b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                                                                                        c. COSATI Field/Group
    Air Pollution
    Atmospheric Deposition
    Air Toxics
    Great Waters
  18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT

   Release Unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (Report)
   Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
       136
                                                   20. SECURITY CLASS (Page)
                                                      Unclassified
                                     22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77)   PREVIOUS EDITION IS OBSOLETE

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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

-------