United States
           Environmental Protection
           Agency
Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
EPA-454/R-96-002
December 1995
oEPA
           MODELING FUGITIVE DUST
           IMPACTS FROM SURFACE COAL
           MINING OPERATIONS - PHASE IE
           Evaluating Model Performance


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                                         EPA-454/R-96-002
  Modeling Fugitive Dust Impacts from
Surface Coal Mining Operations - Phase III

      Evaluating Model Performance
      U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
    Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
    Emissions, Monitoring, and Analysis Division
    Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711

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                                   DISCLAIMER

       The information in this document has been reviewed in its entirety by the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and approved for publication as an EPA document.
Mention of trade names, products, or services does not convey, and should not be interpreted as
conveying official EPA approval, endorsement, or recommendation.

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                                       PREFACE
         i£ report presents the results of a statistical evaluation of several models for predicting
the ambient impact of fugitive dust emissions from surface coal mines.  The evaluation includes
recent improvements to the Industrial Source Complex (ISC) model applicable to fugitive
particulate emissions, and improvements to the emission factors used to estimate emissions from
surface coal mine activities. The results show improved performance by the new model and
emission factors relative to the original model and AP-42 emission factors.
                                           in

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                             ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

      This report has been prepared by Pacific Environmental Services, Inc., Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina.  This effort has been funded by the Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) under Contract No. 68D30001, with Jawad S. Touma as Work Assignment Manager
(WAM).
                                       IV

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                                   CONTENTS

 PREFACE	                            ffi

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS	                iv

 FIGURES		^

 TABLES	 viii

 1.     INTRODUCTION	           j

 2.     MODEL IMPLEMENTATION	                j

 3.     SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION .	 . . .                 2
       3.1    Overview of the Field Study	    2
       3.2   Identifying and Allocating Emission Components	.3
       3.3    Data Processing	                  g
       3.4    MINEMISS - An Emissions Preprocessor for Open Pit Mines  	10

 4.     MONITORED AMBIENT AIR DATA	   10

 5.     DISPERSION MODELING .  .	\       n
       5.1    Modeling Scenarios	        j j
       5.2    Source Data	              13
       5.3    Receptor Data	         •     j^
       5.4    Meteorological Data	      16
       5.5    Modeling Input Options	                    jg

 6.     STATISTICAL EVALUATION		19
       6.1    Overview of the Evaluation Protocol	     19
             6.1.1   Best Performing  Model	       19
             6.1.2   Model Overprediction	    20
       6.2    Modifications to the Model Evaluation Methodology (MEM) Software	!' 20
       6.3    Data Processing	              20
       6.4    Determination of Best-Performing Model	  20
       6.5    Evaluation of Model Overprediction	                21

7.      ADDITIONAL ISSUES	              31
       7.1    Analyses of 30-Day Averages		....... 31
       7.2    Treatment of Background Concentrations	31
       7.3    Influence of Terrain  	              31

8.      SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS	 33

9.     REFERENCES 	34

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APPENDIX A. DOCUMENTATION OF MEMOS AND COMMUNICATIONS ........ A-l

APPENDKB. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE MINE EMISSIONS PREPROCESSOR ^
     (MINEMISS)

APPENDIX C. MODELED AND MONITORED CONCENTRATIONS FOR THE
     CORDEROTMmE MODEL EVALUATION STUDY
     C.I   PMio
     C.2   TSP
                                                        C-l

                                                        C-8
 APPENDED  SUMMARY OF MODEL RESULTS FOR THE
      CORDERO MINE MODEL EVALUATION STUDY	D_2
                     ; PM10 /MODEL : BASE	D_5
                     ; PM10 /MODEL : BHV                 	
D.I
D.2
D.3
D.4
D.5
D.6
D.7
D.8
D.9
D.10
D.ll
D.12
D.13
D.14
D.15
 D.16
POLLUTANT
POLLUTANT :
POLLUTANT :
POLLUTANT :
POLLUTANT
POLLUTANT
POLLUTANT
POLLUTANT
POLLUTANT
POLLUTANT
POLLUTANT
POLLUTANT
POLLUTANT
                     PMIO/MODEL :NLV .
                     PM10/ MODEL :NMV.
                     PMIO/MODEL :NHV
                     PMIO / MODEL : NLA
                     PMIO / MODEL : NMA
                     : PMIO / MODEL : NHA
                     : TSP / MODEL : BASE .
.D-8
D-ll
D-14
D-17
D-20
D-23
D-26
D-29
                      TSP /MODEL : BHV	D 32
                      TSP /MODEL : NLV	D_35
                      TSP / MODEL : NMV	•	
                      TSP /MODEL : NHV 	:	D"4J
           POLLUTANT : TSP /MODEL :NLA	D_44
           POLLUTANT : TSP /MODEL : NMA	D_4?
           POLLUTANT : TSP /MODEL : NHA 	

  APPENDIX E.  CORDERO MINE ON-SITE METEOROLOGICAL DATA		B-l

  APPENDIX F.  COPY OF U.S. EPA/A&WMA CONFERENCE PAPER	*-l

  APPENDIX G. GUTDE TO THE EMISSIONS AND MODELING DATA BASE	G-l
                                  VI

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                                     FIGURES
figure
5-1. Schematic of the Model Domain ................. ........                     12
6-1. Composite Performance Measure with Confidence Interval - PM10  ..........       .22
6-2. Composite Performance Measure with Confidence Interval - TSP  .........          23
6-3. Model Comparison Measure with Confidence Interval - PMj0 .........              24
6-4. Model Comparison Measure with Confidence Interval - TSP ...................... 25
6-5. Model Overprediction Analysis - PM10 (Roads as Volume Sources) .... ...... ; ...... 26
6-6. Model Overprediction Analysis - PM10 (Roads as Area Sources) ................... 27
6-7. Model Overprediction Analysis - TSP (Roads as Volume Sources)  ................. 28
6-8. Model Overprediction Analysis - TSP (Roads as Area Sources) .................... 29
7-1 .  Ratio of 30-Day Average Modeled to Observed Concentrations for the Best Performing
      (NLV) Model ............... . ..................................        32
                                       vu

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                                      TABLES
 Table
 3-1. Sources Used to Represent Emission Activities at Cordero Mine	4
 3-2. Emission Components Associated with Sources	5
 3-3. Changes Made to Graders Data	7
 3-4. Ratio of TSP to PMJO Based on Emission Factor Equations	8
 3-5. Control Efficiency for Rainfall	9
 5-1. Characteristics of Various Models Used in the Evaluation	13
 5-2. Particle Size Data for Cordero Mine 	15
 5-3. Receptor Data for Cordero Mine	16
 5-4. L as a Function of the P-G Stability Class for a Surface Roughness of 10 cm 	18
 5-5. u. as a Function of Wind Speed and P-G Stability Class for a Surface Roughness of 10 cm
                                                                                  18
6-1.  Fractional Bias for Model-Monitor Pairs : PM10	: 30
6-2.  Fractional Bias for Model-Monitor Pairs : TSP  .	30
B-l.  Description of the CONTROL (CO) Pathway forMINEMISS 	B-l
B-2.  Description of the ROADS (RD) Pathway for MINEMISS		B-2
B-3.  Description of the OPENPIT (OP) Pathway forMINEMISS	 B-2
B-4.  Description of the EMISSION (EM) Pathway for MINEMISS	B-2
                                        via

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 1.
 INTRODUCTION
        The Clean Air Act Amendments, Section 234(a), require the Environmental Protection
 Agency (EPA) to analyze the accuracy of the Industrial Source Complex (ISC2) air quality
 dispersion model and AP-42 emission factors to determine the effect on the air quality of fugitive
 dust emissions from surface coal mines. Under Contract No. 68-D2-20159, Work Assignment
 No. 8, Midwest Research Institute developed a comprehensive data base (EPA, 1994) containing
 the following information in electronic format: (a) 24-hour ambient air quality data for TSP
 (particles captured by the standard high-volume air samples) and PM10 (particles no greater than
 10 micrometers in aerodynamic diameter) from a nine-station monitoring network distributed in
 and around the Cordero mine in Wyoming during the period May-July 1993; (b) on-site
 meteorological data (including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and wind direction) during
 the monitoring period; (c) time-resolved information about mine operations (source activity)
 during the monitoring period; (d) estimation of hourly emission rates for all significant sources
 (i.e., vehicle traffic on haul roads and equipment operations associated with topsoil, overburden,
 and coal removal) operating during the monitoring period; and (e) a statistical model evaluation
 protocol (EPA,  1995a) (hereafter referred to as the "protocol") describing the models and data
 bases to be used for testing.

       The purpose of this report is to document the results of a rigorous statistical model
 performance evaluation that was performed using the developed protocol.  Section 2 describes the
 implementation issues that were addressed for input to the models used in the evaluation.  Section
 3 describes how the mine emission sources were characterized for the dispersion models. Section
 4 describes the monitored ambient air data used in the evaluation. Section 5 describes the
 dispersion modeling that was performed to generate predicted concentrations.  Section 6
 describes the statistical model evaluation methodology and results.

       An attempt has been made not to duplicate the discussions in the EPA reports mentioned
 above  (EPA,  1994 and EPA, 1995a). Therefore, in order to follow this report it will be necessary
 to have these other two reports available.
2.
MODEL IMPLEMENTATION
       In order to perform the statistical evaluation of the models as described in the protocol the
following modifications to the ISCST2 and ISCST3 (called ISCSTM in the protocol, EPA,
1995a) models were made:

       The capability to read hourly emissions data from a separate input file for the various
sources was incorporated into the two models. This capability was needed in order to model the
scenarios with daily shift values more efficiently.

       An option to ignore the check for consecutiveness of the hourly meteorological data
records (NOCHKD) was made to both the models. This was necessary in order to be able to run
the models to estimate concentrations for alternate days, since the monitored data for the study
was collected in that manner.
                                           1

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       An option to specify an initial az for area sources was added to the source parameter cards
in the ISCST3 model.  This allows for specifying an initial vertical mixing created by the eddies
due to the movement of the vehicles, as specified in the protocol.

       These modifications were made to the original code with appropriate source code
documentation. The modifications were thoroughly tested.
3.     SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION

       This section describes the various steps involved in preparing the Cordero mine data for
dispersion modeling.
 3.1     Overview of the Field Study

        In 1993  the EPA conducted an intensive atmospheric and source activity monitoring
 program at the Cordero mine in Wyoming (a typical western surface coal mine) for the purpose of
 compiling a comprehensive, quality-assured data base for use in subsequent dispersion model
 evZation (EPA 1994). The study focused on spatially distributed, time-integrated measurements
 of 24-hour PM10 and TSP concentration, coincident meteorological data resolved to hourly
 values, and momtored source activity resolved to a shift basis for much more accurate estimation
 of short-term emission rates associated with the removal, transfer, and transport of mined
 ma erials This study was conducted during the period May 19 - July 18, 1993 wrth data collected
 on alternate days; 30 daily values were archived.  This work included the followmg activities:

        Collecting 24-hour air quality data for TSP (paniculate matter captured by the standard
        high-volume air samples) and PM10 (participate matter nominally 10 microns and less m
        aerodynamic diameter) from a nine-station monitoring network distributed in  and around
        the Cordero mine;

        Collecting continuous on-site meteorological data (including temperature, precipitation,
        wind speed, and wind direction) both  above grade and inside an active pit within the mine;

        Collecting time-resolved information about mining operations (source activity) during
        three observation periods constituting each 24-hour monitoring period.

        Estimating hourly emission rates for all significant sources (i.e., traffic on haul roads and
         equipment operations associated with topsoil, overburden, and coal removal) operating
         during the monitoring periods; and

         Assembling a comprehensive data base containing all of the above information in a suitable
         electronic format.

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 3.2    Identifying and Allocating Emission Components

        The following emission activities were included in the Cordero mine emission inventory
 input to the dispersion models considered for evaluation in accordance with Section 3 of the
 protocol:

        Haul trucks traveling on unpaved haul roads
        Water trucks traveling on unpaved haul roads (to control dust emissions)
        Light-duty vehicles traveling on unpaved haul roads
        Grader travel on unpaved haul roads (for road maintenance)
        Dragline (bucket dumping overburden)
        Haul truck loading (with power shovel)
              - coal
              - overburden
        Haul truck dumping
              - coal
              - overburden
       Bulldozing (in truck loading area)
              - coal
              - overburden
        Scraper travel on unpaved surfaces (for topsoil removal and scoria mining)
       Wind erosion of active surface areas
              - haul roads
              - truck loading areas for coal and overburden
              - truck unloading areas for overburden

       In addition to the sources within the Cordero mine property, haul trucks traveling on the
main unpaved haul road at the Caballo Rojo mine to the north constitute a potentially significant
source impacting on the air quality monitoring stations under northerly wind conditions. The
approach used to model this road was the same as that used for roads at the Cordero mine. All of
the above activities were modeled as sources shown below in Table 3-1.

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        Table 3-1.  Sources Used to Represent Emission Activities at Cordero Mine
 SOURCE ID
.
 R0010201 -
 R0130302
 A1-G9, VI-
 Z4
 NORTHPIT
           "•-
 SOUTHPIT
 LOVERN
         SOURCE NAME
	        ;
Roads at Cordero and Caballo Rojo
mines	
Scraper/Dragline Activity
—.1
North pit
 South pit
       MRI
   IDENTIFIER*
  ==='
I Roads A-Z
 LOVERS
    -
 UOVERN
 UQVERS
 UCOAL
 Overburden loading North
 Overburden loading South
•
 Overburden unloading North
 Overburden unloading South^
 Coal unloading
 Areas A1-G9,V1-Z4

        B«_v»Wi
 Areas A,B,C

 AreaH
 _
 AreaD
        •-
 AreaG
 ••i  i   —
 AreaE
 .^w-«^—"^^"^
 Area I
 ^—^
 AreaF
SOURCE
  TYPE
     — -
area or
volume
    -«-	
area
••^—«^-«
openpit
openpilL
volume
    i
volume
_
volume
      —
volume
.^—•
volume
*As shown in the protocol (EPA, I995a)

      The emissions from haul trucks, water trucks, light duty










 and ISCST2/ ISCST3 sources, including the filenames, are shown ,n Table 3-2.

        The locations and sizes of the pits were obtained from ^^rawtags and phone






  200/2, i.e. half the source width to the coordinates, to the dimensions;.
  the sources was set to zero.

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                   Table 3-2. Emission Components Associated with Sources
SOURCE
TRUCKS
GRADER
DRAGLINE
TRUCKS
TRUCKS
TRUCKS
(TRUCKS
TRUCKS
TRUCKS
TRUCKS
DOZER
DOZER
DOZER
DOZER
SCRAPER
WIND EROSION
WIND EROSION
WIND EROSION
WIND EROSION
WIND EROSION
WIND EROSION
I WIND EROSION
MATERIAL
BOTH
OVERBURDEN
OVERBURDEN
COAL
COAL
OVERBURDEN
OVERBURDEN
COAL
OVERBURDEN
OVERBURDEN
COAL
COAL
OVERBURDEN
OVERBURDEN
BOTH '
BOTH
COAL
COAL
OVERBURDEN
OVERBURDEN
OVERBURDEN
OVERBURDEN
ACTIVITY
MOVING
MOVING
MOVING
LOADING
LOADING
LOADING
LOADING
UNLOADING
UNLOADING
UNLOADING
LOADING
LOADING
LOADING
LOADING
MOVING
MOVING
LOADING
LOADING
LOADING
LOADING
UNLOADING
UNLOADING
REGION
BOTH
ROADS
BOTH
NORTH
SOUTH
NORTH
SOUTH
_
NORTH
SOUTH
NORTH
SOUTH
NORTH
SOUTH
BOTH
ROADS
NORTH
SOUTH
NORTH
SOUTH
NORTH
SOUTH
======
SOURCE
ID
=====
GRIDS Al-
G9, V1-Z4
ROADS
GRIDS Al-
G9, V1-Z4
NORTHPIT
SOUTHPIT
LOVERN
LOVERS
UCOAL
UOVERN
UOVERS
NORTHPIT
SOUTHPIT
LOVERN
LOVERS
GRIDS Al-
G9, V1-Z4
ROADS
NORTHPIT
SOUTHPIT
LOVERN
LOVERS
UOVERN
UOVERS
|j
FILENAME*
ROADS.EM?
part of
ROADS.EM?
DRAGLINE.EM? I
LCOAL-N.EM?
LCOAL-S.EM?
LOVER-N.EM?
LOVER-S.EM? I
UCOAL.EM?
UOVER-N.EM?
UOVER-S.EM?
DCOAL-N.EM?
DCOAL-S.EM? 1
	 -ZL 	 B
DOVER-N.EM?
DOVER-S EM?
SCRAPER.EM?
part of I
ROADS.EM? |
WCOAL-N.EM? I
WCOAL-S.EM? |
WLOVER-N.EM? 8
WLOVER-SEM? I
WUOVER-N.EM? J
WUOVER-S.EM? t
The ? in the filenames stands for '] ', '2 'and '3' for the emission sets 1,2 and 3, respectively, that are
described in the protocol (EPA, 1995a)
       The coal loading and unloading areas were characterized as emission sources with
characteristics described in Section 3.6 of the protocol (EPA, 1995a) with the exception of the

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horizontal dispersion parameter (ay) was set to 5 meters.
3.3   Data Processing



















 possMe emissions from roads. The details of the two tasks mentumed follow.



       The MRI worksheets contained combined «*££«£^™K " <*













  sum of 4e activities on all the 4 roads to calculate the combmed emissions.
  emission factors. The MRI ™*^                            were combined into










   tt£Z£E?£Z^
   the graders. Table 3-3 lists the changes that were made:

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                          Table 3-3. Changes Made to Graders Data
JULIAN DAY
151
165
169
179
187
SHIFT
1
1
1
1&2
2
CORRECTION MADE
Emissions split between roads M and F
Emissions split between roads M and C D E
Emissions split between roads M and G
Interchanged the emissions between shifts 1 & 2 (in the original
data, there were emission rates for shift 2 but no locations and no
emission rates for shift 1 but there were locations listed)
Emissions split between roads A,G, V and T
       Emission files for the 3 emission sets (EPA, 1995a) were created for PM10 as well as for
TSP. The emissions data from MRI were for PM10 with a list of TSP/PM10 ratios provided to
obtain the TSP emission rates (see Appendix A).  These conversion factors are shown in Table 3-
4. Further adjustments to the emissions data were made. Control factors based on the mitigative
effects of rainfall were also provided by MRI in a letter memorandum (see Appendix A). These
factors are listed in Table 3-5 below. As per the protocol (EPA, 1995a), these were applied to
the graders, bulldozers and wind erosion by multiplying the emission rates with the appropriate
factor.

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   Table 3-4. Ratio of TSP to PM10 Based on Emission Factor Equations
            SOURCE

 Coal loading
•^^i^^»^^™
 Coal unloading
    	-—    "•*
 Overburden loading
             "
 Overburden unloading
 Dragline
 Coal haul truck travel
 Overburden haul truck travel
 	           '        '
 Water truck travel
 —I..               ~"
 LDV travel
            •~
  Coal bulldozing
  Overburden bulldozing
  Graders
          •
  Scrapers
  Wind erosion: coal loading
  Wind erosion: overburden loading
  Wind erosion: haul roads
  __~_—^PI^«^M«
  Caballo Rojo
                                       RATIQOFTSPtoPM
SET 1   I   SET 2
 5.49    I	2.11
 2.00    I    2.11
 ••^——
 2.00
2.11
See coal haul truck travel
                                     8

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                          Table 3-5. Control Efficiency for Rainfall
DATE
5/21
5/27
5/29
6/6
6/8
6/16
6/18
6/22
6/30
7/4
7/6
7/14
7/16
JULIAN
DAY
141
147
149
157
159
167
169
173
181
185
187
195
197
SHIFT
2
2
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
1
2
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
NO. OF HOURS
WITH RAIN
1
4
1
5
3
2
4
8
2
2
3
4
2
1
2
1
1
1
FRACTIONAL
CONTROL
EFFICIENCY (c)
0.13
0.50
0.17
0.63
0.50
0.33
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.20
0.38
0.40
0.33
0.10
0.20
0.08
0.08
0.08
NOTE: To get the controlled emission rate, the emission rate is multiplied by (1-c).
       Although mentioned in the protocol, the correction due to rainfall mitigation had not been
applied to the emissions due to vehicle traffic on haul roads for Set 3 (see Appendix A). This was
corrected by using the hourly rainfall data from the file 24hrvph and applying an emission control
factor based on the number of consecutive hours and the quantity of rainfall. This was in
accordance with the scheme listed in Appendix A of the protocol (EPA,  1995a).

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       Also emission control due to watering of roads was not applied to the light duty vehicles
for Set 2, as'mentioned in the protocol (see Appendix A). This was corrected by reducing the
emissions due to light duty vehicles on a road by 50% when there was-any road watering activity
on that road.


3.4    MINEMISS-An Emissions Preprocessor for Open Pit Mines

       An emissions pre-processor called MINEMISS was developed to expedite the source
characterization of the raw data from the Cordero mine and create files for input to the IbCb 1J
model.  The program was made generic enough that it can be used for characterizing emissions
from any surface coal mine operation.

       The program reads various inputs such as the definition of work shifts, locations and
dimensions of road segments, pits, loading and unloading areas, areas of dragline and scraper
activity, emission rates by shift from different sources including difte rent vehicle ^P^ ™"£
erosion and loading and unloading activities.  It then creates AREA, VOLUME and OPENPIT
sources for ISCST3 as requested by the user. It also creates AREA or VOLUME sources out of
road segments. The emissions from the various activities for each shift are then allocated
 appropriately into these various sources.  If a road segment is inside the defined pit the program
 adds the portion of emissions from those segments to the total pit emissions. The final outputs
 from the program are (1) an ISCSTS-format file with the source location and parameter cards,
 and (2) an hourly emissions file corresponding to these sources.

        Another version of the program was created to output ISCST2 format data.  Since there is
 no OPENPIT source type in ISCST2, the emissions for the pits were distributed into multiple area
 sources that represented the pits.

        Instructions for running the emissions pre-processor are provided in Appendix B.


 4.     MONITORED AMBIENT AIR DATA

        The initial monitored ambient air data base for PM10 and TSP was modified to account for
 background concentration values.  The regional background concentrations for PM10 and TbP
 listed in Table 9  of the protocol were appropriately subtracted from the monitored concentrations
  and a new data base was created for use in the Model Evaluation Methodology (MEM) software.
  Any reported negative concentrations were reassigned a value of-99.0 to reflect the missing
  values  Along with the predicted concentrations, Appendix C lists the monitored ambient
  concentrations for PM10 and TSP,  respectively, for each of the monitor sites with the background
  concentration subtracted.
                                             10

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5.
DISPERSION MODELING
       This section describes the dispersion modeling effort for this model evaluation. The
following sub-sections elaborate on the various components of this task - source and receptor
data preparation, meteorological data processing, modeling options that were used, etc. Figure
5-1 depicts modeling domain with the sources and receptors identified. The predicted and
monitored 24-hour average concentrations for each monitor and each model are shown in
Appendix C for PMJO and TSP, respectively.  The summaries of model results are provided in
Appendix D.
5.1    Modeling Scenarios

       The dispersion modeling was carried out for the eight modeling systems described in the
protocol (EPA, 1995a) for both PM10 and TSP. For the purpose of the evaluation study these
modeling systems are referred to as "models". Table 5-1 lists the details of each of the models.
The BASE model refers to the original ISCST2 model with the original AP-42 emission factors.
The other model names are made up of three characters identifying the dispersion model
component, the emissions resolution component, and the type of sources used to characterize the
roadway emissions.  There are two options for the model:  B for base model (ISCST2) or N for
new model (ISCST3).  There are three options for the emissions resolution:  L for low resolution
(Set 2 emission factors for vehicles traveling on haul roads and other sources with 30-day average
shift activity resolution); M for medium resolution (Set 2 emission factors for vehicles traveling
on haul roads and other sources with daily shift activity resolution); and H for high resolution (Set
3 emission factors for vehicles traveling on haul roads, Set 2 emission factors for other sources,
and daily shift activity resolution).  See Table  8 of the protocol (EPA, 1995a) for a description  of
the three sets of emission factors. There are two options for roadway sources: V for roads as
volume sources and A for roads as area sources. The BASE model also uses 30-day average shift
activity resolution and roads as volume sources.
                                           11

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                    SCHEMATIC OF THE CORDERO
                   MODEL EVALUATION STUDY AREA
      8000
"S    4000 —
         0 —

      -4000—
      -8000
                   CABALLO ROJO
                   MINE ROADS
           -8000
                    North
                    South Pit
                                   HV-3
                                Ugend

                              LoadingAJnloading

                              Scraper/Dragline Activity

                              Monitors

                              Roads
   ^000         0         4000        8000
Easting (meters) in Model Domain Coordinates
                   Figure 5.1 - Schematic of the Model Domain
                                   12

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             Table 5-1.  Characteristics of Various Models Used in the Evaluation
MODEL
NUMBER
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
MODEL
NAME*
BASE
BHV
NLV
NMV
NHV
NLA
NMA
NHA
POLLUTANT
PMIO /TSP
PM10 /TSP
PM10/TSP
PM10 /TSP
PM10/TSP.
PM.o/TSP
PM10 /TSP
PM10 /TSP
EMISSION SET
FOR HAUL
ROAD
VEHICLES
1
3
2
2
3
2
2
3
EMISSION
SET FOR
OTHER
SOURCES
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
EMISSION
AVERAGING
30-DAY AVERAGE
SHIFT VALUE
DAILY SHIFT
VALUE
30-DAY AVERAGE
SHIFT VALUE
DAILY SHIFT
VALUE
DAILY SHIFT
VALUE
30-DAY AVERAGE
SHIFT VALUE
DAILY SHIFT
VALUE
DAILY SHIFT
VALUE
ROADS AS
AREAS OR
VOLUMES
VOLUME
VOLUME
VOLUME
VOLUME
VOLUME
AREA
AREA
AREA
* :     B = Base Model,  N = New Model,   L = Low Resolution Emissions,  M = Medium
       Resolution Emissions,  H = High Resolution Emissions,   V = Roads as Volume
       Sources,  A = Roads as Area Sources
5.2    Source Data

       The pre-processor MINEMISS was run for emission sets 1,2 and 3 for each of the 8
models separately using the various source descriptions and emissions as characterized in Section
3.  The program created two ISCST3 input files for each of the models - a file containing the
SOURCE LOCATION and SOURCE PARAMETER cards and another containing the 'hourly'
emission rates for each of the sources. The files containing the source locations and parameters
was used to generate the final runstream input files. The sources were grouped into five
ISCST2/ISCST3 source groups. This was done so that the model could output predicted
concentration from all the sources combined, as well as from individual source groups of interest,
such as the pits, the roads, etc.
                                         13

-------
        Source Grout
        ROADS
        NORTHPIT
        SOUTHPIT
        ACTIVITY
Activities Included
!=^
All road sources
"ni i uau >jwi*t ^/wu
The north pit activities including ramps
The south pit activities including ramps
___.    •«« 1 .	— _._.~»»A M A**^4*<«s-r 4-r»a ff\
The gridded sources representing the roaming scraper and
dragline activity
                        Coal and overburden loading and unloading sources
                        All the sources combined
       Since the model domain was considered essentially flat (Section 5.5), all the sources were
assigned a base elevation of zero. The particle size categories for PM10 and TSP were obtained
from Table 7 in the protocol (EPA, 1995a). The mass mean diameter for each P^BM
category was calculated (EPA, 1995b).  Table 5-2 lists the particle size distribute data that was
used in the modeling.
5.3    Receptor Data

       The receptor coordinates used in the modeling analysis were extracted from Table 2.5 of
the Phase I report (EPA, 1994).  The original coordinates of the monitor locations; were hs ed in
feet in the Wyoming coordinate system. These were converted to the model coordinate system by
subtracting 454000 ft from the easting and 1226000 ft from the northing, which are the
coordinates of the origin of the model coordinate system. These new ™*^
converted to meters.  Since the model domain was considered essentially to, f      HF P
were assigned a base elevation of zero.  Based on a conversation between PESMMtheEPA
and Mr Kirk Winges of McCulley, Frick & Oilman (see Appendix A), the height of the monitor
intakes above ground were used as flagpole heights for the receptors.  Table 5-3 shows the
receptor data used in the modeling analysis.
                                            14

-------
 e
 CD
 O

O
 -«
 rel

P
JO

"o



1
•S
H
a g8
^5 f^^ '
2
W5
5/3
H
Ml E

i -3-
t» .0
V
1 «
s • « is
» E §
w W O
"8
J ^
fs p^
•o
V
S 1
u
Is "*>
Cs B
CM 23
.2
<*» .
o

ON _, cs oo t*»
en | . — O O
0 ° 0 O 0
S S S S S
w w w w w
tS ON O rf vo
rj- m cs f» t~-
o o ,x
m CN cs •— < i— ' • «'>
^J" ^" ON
CS CS r-i
O O. O


o o o
0 0 0
•^ •* 10
o o o
WWW
§ § 2
ON cs oo
•* O 1-1

00 m m
oo oo \o
m . — < o

SJ 2 0


ON TJ- o

WT i O O

-------
                     Table 5-3. Receptor Data for Cordero Mine
5.4    Meteorological Data


direction fluctuations (oe), ambient temperature, and precipitation (EPA, 1994).
                   meteorological data set for Cordero included some missing data, which
 shown in Appendix E with the substituted missing data
       The ISCST dispersion model also requires input data on mixing height and the Pasquill-



 meteorological guidance document (EPA, 1987).
        The new deposition algorithm in the ISCST3 model also requires the surface roughness

  Sgh wind ieed cases.  Under these conditions, the following approximation holds.
                                            16

-------
                                    2k2
                                                                                  (5-1)
        Solving this equation for surface roughness length, ZQ, gives:
                    Z0 * zexp
(5-2)
 where  ae is the standard deviation of wind direction (degrees), ov is the standard deviation of
 the crosswind component of the wind speed (m/s), u is the scalar wind speed (m/s), k is the
 von Karman constant (0.4), z is the measurement height (m) and ZQ is the surface roughness
 length (m).

       Using wind speeds greater than 5 m/s, the median value of z0 for the Cordero mine
 data set was determined to be about 10 cm. This value of z0 is considered to be a reasonable
 estimate based on published tables of surface roughness length for various types of surface.

       The resulting distribution of PG stability categories was examined for reasonableness
 by examining the results for cloudless days and nights as suggested in  the on-site
 meteorological guidance document.  Cloud cover data for this purpose was obtained for the
 Gillette Airport located about 20 miles north of Cordero mine. The diurnal distribution of P-G
 stability classes for these conditions appears reasonable,  and therefore  no adjustments to the oe
 boundaries were made.

       The Monin-Obukhov length (L) was calculated as a function of surface roughness
 length and the P-G stability category  using the method currently implemented in the ISCLT3
 model.  This method is based on Colder (1972), and uses the following equation:
                       L  =
                                                                                 (5-3)
where L is the Monin-Obukhov length (m).  The values for a and b, which depend on the P-G
stability category, are given by Irwin (1979). Table 5-4 shows the values calculated using
Equation 5-3 for a surface roughness length of 10 cm.
                                          17

-------
  Table 5-4. Lasa^^nnnftheP-GStflhmtvClassforaSurfac..Kou^ssof  10cm

     P-G Stability Class         A        B        C        D
 Monin-Obukhov Length (m)     -9       -18       61      9000      6
      The surface friction velocity (u.) was also calculated
th* 7<:rT -n model fEPA  1995b) as a function of surface roughness length, surface layer




assuming a surface roughness length of 10 cm.
 Table  5-5.  u. as a Function of Wind Speed and P-G Stability Class for a Surface Roughness
  5.5   Modeling Input Options
m
                the aDDrooriatelv model the paniculate emission scenarios, the depletion of
                l* from T ptoe due to gravitational settling and other dry deposition factors
  wee c          xTe mode? was furnished with particle size, density and mass fracUon

  information for the site (see Section 5.2).

         Following the guidance in Section 8.2.8 of the Guideline on Air Quality Models i (EPA,
  1993)  fhe S wShin about 3 km of any facility can be classified accorchng to , the tad use





  mixing heights computed by the meteorological processor.
                                            18

-------
       For this application, the regulatory default option (DFAULT) in ISCST2 and ISCST3
 was used for all modeling runs.

       For any hour of meteorology with a calm wind, concentration estimates were not made.

       With the exception of the pit sources, all the emission sources are essentially surface
 releases. The pit sources were modeled as described in Section 3.4.  The pit and the area
 source algorithms are capable of making predictions in the flat terrain, but are not capable of
 accounting for the effects of elevated or complex terrain. The topography of the general area
 is also relatively flat. Therefore, the flat terrain option was selected.

       For each run, the POSTFILE output option of ISCST2 and ISCST3 was selected. This
 type of output would contain 24-hour average concentration predictions at each receptor for
 each of the 30 days that were modeled. This output was suitable for performing the statistical
 model evaluation.
6.     STATISTICAL EVALUATION

       The statistical model evaluation study was performed strictly adhering to the model
evaluation protocol (EPA, 1995a). Section 6.1 provides an overview of the model evaluation
protocol.  The EPA Model Evaluation Methodology (MEM) software was used to perform
these statistical evaluations (Strimaitis, et al., 1993). Section 6.2 describes some of the
changes that were made to this software in order to perform the evaluation.  Section 6.3
describes the steps involved in the actual analysis and sections 6.4 and 6.5 discuss the results
of the two steps of the model evaluation.
6.1    Overview of the Evaluation Protocol

       Eight models were evaluated separately for PM10 and TSP in a two step process - (1)
determining the best performing model and (2) assessing model overprediction (EPA 1995a).
6.1.1  Best Performing Model

       The best performing models were determined as follows. For each monitor, a Robust
Highest Concentration (RHC) was calculated.  The Absolute Fractional Bias (AFB) of the
RHC for each monitor were used to calculate a composite performance measure using weights
as listed in Table 10 of the protocol (EPA,  1995a). The smaller the CPM, the better the
overall performance of the model. The difference in CPM between various model pairs
resulted in a Model Comparison Measure (MCM) with confidence limits for each model pair.
                                         19

-------
6.1.2 Model Overprediction

      As per the protocol, the model overprediction analysis involved only three stations with
thehighest^bserv^mean.concentrationforPM.oand  TSP.  These sta J^^ldff fied m
            For each of the three stations, the RHC,  the non-weighted CPM and the
            as ^for each model with only an upper confidence limit ^e calculated for
         TSP separately. The FB values were used in determining if a model was
significantly overpredicting, as described in the protocol.
6.2
       Modifications to the Model Evaluation Methodology (MEM) Software
       In order to perform the model evaluation according to the protocol, a few modifications
 to the ^Mprog^ software were necessary.  The revised version of the program was called
 EPAMEM. The modifications are as follows:
       The original MEM program was capable of calculating the
       measure (CPM) for each specified model using only one weight factor per run.
       prTcS Sis for the use efferent weights for the different monitors.  MEM was
       modified so that the user can define one weight factor per monitor and use it in
       calculating the CPM as described in equation 6 in Section 6.3 of the protocol.

       The original program calculated a 95% confidence interval on the MCM. This was
        modified to 90% to be consistent with the protocol.

        A new version of the program (after the above two changes) was created* perform the
        model overprediction analysis.  This version of the program is called OVERMEM.
  6.3   Data Processing

        Three types of inputs were provided to the MEM software. (1) The POSTFILE
  outputs from each of the eight model runs; (2) the PM10 or TSP background-adjusted
  Sccd^St concentLions; (3) MEM control file. The MEM program created outputs
  which were then plotted.


  6.4    Determination of Best-Performing Model

         The results of the best-performing model analysis are shown in *^^*™&
  6-4. Figures 6-1 and 6-2 depict the CPM with confidence intervals for PM10 and TSP
  respectively  Figures 6-3 and 6-4 show the MCM with confidence limits for PM10 and TSP,
         vely.  These figures show that:  theimProv^.ISC^e1^^^^
          ISC2 model at predicting ambient concentrations of PM10 and Lbr iroma
            ^proved ISC3 model performed better for TSP than PM10; model performance
                                            20

-------
improved with the use of the new emission factors versus the existing AP-42 emission factors;
model performance when the roadways were treated as area sources was indistinguishable from
model performance when the roadways were modeled as volume sources;  the ISC3 model with
emission rates averaged by shift over the length of the study (lowest emission resolution)
performed better than the others; and that there were statistically significant differences among
pairs of models.
6.5    Evaluation of Model Overprediction

       The results of the model overprediction analysis for PM,0 and TSP are shown in
Figures 6-5 through 6-8.  For clarity, the plots for each pollutant were split into roads modeled
as area sources and roads  modeled as volume sources.  Table 6-1 lists the FB for each model-
monitor pair for PM10 and Table 6-2 lists the same for TSP.  These figures show that in spite
of the improved performance of the ISC3 model, the model significantly overpredicts (as
defined in the protocol) for PM10 but not for TSP.
                                          21

-------
OS
 a
 §
cs   o
     So
     ea
     8
4^    <^^
P-l  O
                       IIS II
                       zzz
                       292
                 LU

                 §
Sz  iauSia  aioi
II  I ' I  II
mz
         <>
                                                                                      IO
                                                                                         O
                                                          .3
                                                          CO
                                                       CO
                                            13dOI/\l
           Figure 6.1 Composite Performance Measure with Confidence Interval - PM10

-------
  2
  s
  Gfl

 is
 s
 J-
 5n  C



^H  (J
 0 -
PH


H
                       o
II
u>
9i

                      «i
<>
.5?
                 >      .<      >       <
                 z      i      s       S
                 ^      ^      -z.       -z.
                                      •z.      CQ
                                        13dOl/\l
                                                                                    CNJ
                                                                     Q.
                                                                     O

                                                                     til
                                                                     cr


                                                                     vi
                                                                                      LU
                                                                                      o
                                                                    £
                                                                    OL
                                                                    111
                                                                    Q.


                                                                    t
                                                                    O>
                                                                    O
                                                                    Q.
                                                                                   O

                                                                                   d
        Figure 6.2  Composite Performance Measure with Confidence Interval - TSP
                                        23

-------
                       PM-10  Model Comparison Measure
                          With 90% Confidence Interval
MODEL PAIRS
  NLV -
  NLV -
  NLA -
  NLA -
  NLV -
  NLV -
  NLA -
  NLV -
  NLA -
  NLV -
  NMV -
  NMV -
  NMA -
  NMV -
  NMA -
  NMV -
  NMA -
  NHV -
  NHV -
  BAS -
  NMV -
  NLV -
  NHV -
  NHA -
  NHA -
  NHV -
  NMV -
  NHV
 BHV -
- NHA -
- BHV -
- NHA -
- BAS -
- NHV -
- BAS -
- NMA •
- NMA •
- NMV -
- BHV •
- NHA •
- BHV •
- BAS
- NHA
- NHV
- BAS
- BHV
- NHA
- BHV
- NMA
- NLA
- BAS
- BHV
- BAS
- NMA
- NLA
- NLA

* 1
« 1
'l t
! i
f i • i '
i ' t '
1 1 • i
M • *
\
• \
i *
t
\ \
. I !
1 i J
!
r ' •
^
3
1 H
I
I ~


i j

LEGEND
B -BASE1 MODEL
N-NEW'MODEL
L- EM1$ ION RESOLUTION -1X»W
M » EMISSION RESOLUTION - MEDIUM
H- EMISSION RESOLUTION - HIGH
A-ROADS AS AREA SOURCES
V - Rp Al[» AS VOLI IME SOURCES

_J
zi
il
i


• i
, i


H
1
1
P1 1
• 1 '
f J |
' , ' 1
' 1
1 1
            -1.0
                   -0.5           0.0           0.5
                   MODEL COMPARISON MEASURE (MCM)
                                                                  1.0
            Figure 6.3  Model Comparison Measure with Confidence Interval - PMIO
                                   24

-------
MODEL PAIRS
                       TSP Model Comparison Measure
                        With 90% Confidence Interval
  NLV
  NLA
  NLV
  .NLA
  NMV -
  NMA -
  NMV -
  NMA -
  NHV -
  NHA -
  NHV -
  NHA -
  NLV -
  NLV -
  NLA -
  NLV -
  NLA -
  NLV -
  NMV -
  NMV -
  NMA -
  BAS -
  NMV -
  NLV -
  NHV -
  NHV -
  NMV -
  NHV -
- BHV
- BHV
- BAS
- BAS
- BHV
- BHV
- BAS
- BAS
- BHV
- BHV
- BAS
- BAS
- NHA •
- NHV •
- NHA •
- NMA •
- NMA •
- NMV -
- NHA -
- NHV -
- NHA -
  BHV -
  NMA -
  NLA -
  NHA -
  NMA -
  NLA -
  NLA -
























I
M






1
t
r
1
i



T-




>









1
* Ij
\ I











A





1 *
?
'|
I1
1
1

It
'|
1,
,1
1,
"I.
I



•








!
LEGEND
B -BASE MOD
N-NEWMOD
L- EMISSION
M- EMISSION
H- EMISSION
A -ROADS AS
V- ROADS AS

1
\ «|




:
ESOLUTION-LOW
ijESOLUTlON - MEDIUM
SOLUTION -HIGH
REA SOURCES
ilOLUME SOURCES


1
           -1.5
                -1-0        -0.5        0.0         05
                   MODEL COMPARISON MEASURE (MCM)
                                                                  f.O
            Figure 6.4 Model Comparison Measure with Confidence Interval - TSP
                                   25

-------
     PM-10 OVERPREDICTION MEASURE
        WITH 90% UPPER BOUND
         (Roads as Volume Sources)




1
^
_]
1
BAS




NLV/A/IR13 I
• ' ; NL\
; NLV/MR16 I
V: 1
NMVa/RI 3 1 1 ; •
: ' NMV^/IRI5
NMvJ^R16 |

^/1R13 1 .
* 1 BASO/1RI5
BAS^iRie :

1
LEGEND:
B-BASe MODEL
N-NEW;MCX«L
L- EMBaONRESOimON-LOW
M-EMlSS10NRESOUmCN-MEDIUM
H - EMISSION RESOLUTION • HIGH
A - ROADS AS AREA SOURCES
V-ROADSASVOLUMESOURCES ;
ro I
I

: •
J
1

1
1
1
I
!
i
: i
1
-15
       -10       -0.5        0.0       0.5
        'COMPOSITE PERFORMANCE MEASURE (CPM)


Figure 6.5 Model Overprediction Analysis - PM10 (Roads as Volume Sources)
                                                1.0
                       26

-------
         PM-10  OVERPREDICTION MEASURE
            WITH 90% UPPER BOUND
              (Roads as Area Sources)
NLA^J

NMA^MRI 3
w 	
4MRI 3 I !
1 j
I/IRI 3 |
1
NLA^Aj


_....,,..,_j
NMAM/1R
NMAM/IRI

BASM/IRI6

NU=
?RI6 |
1
15
6 1

BAS AMRI 5
V
I
n
| 1 | 1
14/IRI 5

J
1
I
1
LEGEND
B-BASEN
N-NEWV
L-EM1SS
M-EMISS
H-EMISSI
A -ROADS
V -ROADS




1
1ODEL
ODEL
ON RESOLUTION - LOW
ON RESOLUTION - MEDIUM
M RESOLUTION - HIGH
AS AREA SOURCES
AS VOLUME SOURCES




1
o
z
o
LLJ
Q
O
 BAS
  -1.5        -1.0        -0.5         0.0        0.5
              COMPOSITE PERFORMANCE MEASURE (CPM)

      Figure 6.6 Model Overprediction Analysis - PM10 (Roads as Area Sources)
1.0
                           27

-------
        TSP  OVERPREDICTION MEASURE
           WITH 90% UPPER BOUND
            (Roads as Volume Sources)
LU
Q
O





••

NHVU
^

  -1.5
                                              LECiEND ;

                                              B-BASB(4ODBL
                                              N - NEW MODEL

                                              L- EMISSION RESOLUTION-LOW
                                              M - EMISSION RBSOLIJTION - MEDIUM
                                              H " EMISSION RBSOUJT10N - HIOH
            BAS ^IRI 2   I

             BAS^IRI 3   1
                   BAS/«MRI6 :
        -1 0         -0.5         0.0
          COMPOSITE PERFORMANCE MEASURE (CPM)

Figure 6.7 Model Overprediction Analysis - TSP (Roads as Volume Sources)
                               28

-------
          TSP OVERPREDICTION MEASURE
              WITH 90% UPPER BOUND
                 (Roads as Area Sources)
                           NLAM/1RI2
          ME
                                NLA^IRIS
               ^i
i
                                            MJf
LEGEND ;

B-= BASE MODEL
N-NEW MODEL

L- EMISSION RESOLUTION-LOW
M - EMISSION RESOLUTION - MED1UK
H - EMISSION RESOLUTION - HIGH
                     NLA/rfMRI 6
                                                A - ROADS AS AREA SOURCES
                                                Vj^ROADS AS VOLUME SOURCES
CC
O
                       NMAJV1RI2
      M/1F
                                           NMA^MRI 6  :
                         ±m
LU
Q
O
                      NHAM/1RI2
                 NHA AMRI 3
O/JF
     M^RI2    I
                                 NHAAMR!
           BAS ^IRI 2    I

            BASM^RI 3   '
                         -0.5          0.0          05
               COMPOSITE PERFORMANCE MEASURE (CPM)

     Figure 6.8 Model Overprediction Analysis - TSP (Roads as Area Sources)
                                           1.0
                             29

-------
                Table 6-1.  Fractional Bias for Model-Monitor Pairs : PM10
MONITOR
MRI-1
MRI-2
MRI-3
MRI-4
MRI-5
MRI-6
HV-1
HV-2
HV-3
 NLV
0.29263
-0.92659
-1.00204
-1.44299
 0.05038
-0.53179
-0.74841
 -1.00805
 -0.16247
 NLA
 ==
0.27208
-0.97187
-1.02199
-1.45828
0.04761
-0.53672
-0.74831
-1.01586
-0.15040
 NMV
 =======
-0.71586
-1.03625
-1.16550
-1.49066
-0.58224
-0.58066
-0.73867
-1.03270
-0.36699
 NMA
 ===
 0.74287
-1.06014
-1.18479
-1,51124
-0.58390
-0.61689
-0.74112
 -1.04400
 -0.38171
 NHV
-0.78837
-1.02309
-1.36195
-1.48677
-0.67354
-0.79840
-1,04200
-1.26791
-0.33770
 NHA
     "•
-0.81610
-1.07239
-1.38246
-1.50934
-0.67694
-0.82175
-1.04375
-1.27062
-0.35908
 BASE
 ===
-0.77573
-1.09894
-1.46970
-1.53440
-0.30341
-0.83780
-1.04942
-1.19849
 -0.80768
 BHV
 _.
-0.88085
-1.06419
-1.38013
-1.51085
-0.66053
-0.79816
-1.14094
-1.32095
-0.42324
                 Table 6-2.  Fractional Bias for Model-Monitor Pairs : TSP
 MONITOR
 -'•    	
 MRI-1
 MRI-2
 MRI-3
 MRI-4
 MRI-5
 MRI-6
 HV-1
 HV-2
  HV-3
   NLV
  0.38276
  -0.33962
  -0.17830
  -1.02891
  0.61643
  0.18246
  0.06668
  -0.19681
  -0.01908
   NLA
   ___=
  0.37490
  -0.38080
  -0.17154
  -1.03086
  0.62506
  0.19630
  0.08972
  -0.17081
   0.01298
   NMV
 -0.61178
 -0.50762
 -0.40356
 -1.12657
  0.23157
  0.27679
  0.10179
  -0.19473
  -0.2937
  NMA.
  =====
  -0.61768
  -0.52740
  -0.43271
  -1.12637
  0.24366
  0.27230
  0.12253
  -0.16148
  -0.28919
   NHV
   ==
 -0.70570
 -0.55643
 -0.77314
 -1.25200
  0.08389
 -0.09775
  -0.39841
  -0.61950
  -0.28041
   NHA
 -0.71640
 -0.55817
 -0.77578
 -1.25570
  0.09737
  -0.09891
  -0.37763
  -0.58743
  -0.27494
  BASE
  =====
 -0.68693
 -0.99196
 -0.95670
 -1.47090
 -0.21283
 -0.69029
  -0.92508
  -1.01380
  -0.99495
   BHV
   =====
 -1.06081
 -0.84346
 -1.08157
 -1.40544
 -0.40129
 -0.56665
 -0.98893
  -1.06365
  -0.69844
                                            30

-------
 7.
        ADDITIONAL ISSUES
       The statistical model evaluation dealt with the 24-hour averaged RHC values. In this
 section we briefly investigate some issues that were revealed during the investigation and how
 they may affect the results.

 7.1    Analyses of 30-Day Averages

       In order to determine the presence of any significant spatial trends in the overpredictions,
 the ratio of the 30-day average model predicted to observed concentration values for the best
 performing (NLV) model were examined.  Using 30-day averages was thought to be a robust
 means for investigating bias. Figure 7-1 shows the TSP values on the x-axis and the
 corresponding ratio results for PM10 on the y-axis. The receptor sites having the largest
 overprediction are all near the roads and are all in the same general vicinity, namely: MRI-2, HV-
 2, MRI-3, and MRI-4. A review of the emissions data shows that roadway emissions constitute
 about 75 percent of the total mine emissions (see Appendix F).
PM
   10
       Two conclusions are evident from these results. First, overprediction is more evident for
      than TSP.  Second, the receptors where overpredictions occur are generally the same for
 both PM10 and TSP. This suggests that common deficiencies in characterizing the emissions are
 higher for PMj0 than TSP in the vicinity of these receptors. Another possible explanation might
 be that the dispersion from the sources in vicinity of these receptors is poorly characterized in
 some unique fashion or circumstance for these particular receptors.

 7.2    Treatment of Background Concentrations

       The background concentration for PM10 and TSP was defined as the lowest 24-hour
 observed concentration (see Section 5.4 of the protocol). Such a definition has a natural bias to
 overestimate the background concentration. If the observed concentrations are generally large in
 comparison to the background, the uncertainties associated with the background concentration
 are usually negligible. To assess this we computed the ratio of average estimated background
 PM10 concentrations to maximum observed PM10 concentrations to be 0.51, while the ratio for
 TSP is 0.26. As  discussed in the previous section, there is some tendency for overprediction for
 both TSP and PM10, but more  so for PM10 than TSP. These results are consistent with the bias
 one would expect if the background concentration was somewhat overestimated, and the
 uncertainties in the background values were higher for PMJO than TSP.

 7.3    Influence of Terrain

       Flat terrain was assumed in the evaluation study because the pit and the area source
algorithms cannot handle complex terrain. Some monitors, e.g., MRI3 were located on a higher
terrain than the surface of the pit and the roads. However, accurate topographical maps were not
available to determine the difference in terrain to incorporate as the flagpole height of the receptor
at these monitors.
                                          31

-------
         Further sensitivity analyses are required to better understand the results and develop an

   approach for removing model overprediction.
CO
g
2
5
(X
      0
          0
  3         4
TSP (NLV/OBS)
          Figure 7-1  Ratio of 30-Day Average Modeled to Observed Concentrations for the Best
                                    Performing (NLV) Model
                                               32

-------
8.
SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS
       A three-step process to identify the best-performing model for predicting the impacts of
paniculate emissions from surface coal mines and to identify significant overprediction was
described in the model evaluation protocol (EPA, 1995a).  This report is the first part of this
three-step process.

       This report compares the performance of the Industrial Source Complex (ISC2) dispersion
model with the new ISC3 model which contains improved algorithms for area sources, open pit
sources, and dry deposition. Observed data include on-site meteorological data and 24-hour air
quality data for TSP and PM10 from a nine-station network distributed in and around a surface
coal mine in Wyoming's Powder River Basin. Time-resolved information about mining
operations (source activity) was collected during each 24-hour monitoring period.  Emission rates
from all significant sources operating during the monitoring period (traffic on haul roads and
equipment operations) were obtained using the existing AP-42 emission factors, new emission
factors and site specific emission factors.  Emissions were adjusted by the effects of mitigation
measures.  Eight modeling groups consisting of a combination of: a dispersion model, an emission
factor, a set of source location and activity level, and a geometric method for source
representation for both TSP and PMi0. Model performance was compared using objective
statistical measures. Appendix G provides a guide to the emissions and modeling data base used
in this analysis.

       The results of the model evaluation study show that:

1.     The improved ISC3 model with new emission factors performs better than  the original
       ISC2 model and original factors at predicting ambient concentrations of PM10 and TSP
       from a surface coal mine.

2.     The improved ISC3 model performed better for TSP than PM10.

3.     There are statistical differences among pairs of models.  The ISC3  model with emission
       rates averaged by shift over the length of the study (lowest emission resolution) performed
       better than the others.

4.     In spite of the improved performance of the ISC3 model, the model significantly
       overpredicts (as defined in the protocol) for PM10 but not for TSP.

5.     The receptors where overpredictions occur are generally the same for both PMi0 and TSP,
       This suggests a common deficiency in either characterizing the emissions or the dispersion
       in some unique fashion for these particular receptors.

       Other analyses that are left for further study include:  1) a comparison between the trends
and relationships in the observed concentration values and meteorological data in this period with
a 5-year historical data period in the Powder River Basin; 2) a sensitivity analysis to examine
model response under various  meteorological conditions, examine source characterization input,
and evaluate boundaries of model use.
                                           33

-------
9.
REFERENCES
Auer, A. H. Jr., 1978: Correlation of use and cover with meteorological anomalies, Journal of
      Applied Meteorology, pp. 636-643.

Environmental Protection Agency, 1986:  Guideline on Mr Quality Models (Revised). EPA-
      450/2-78-027R. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.

Environmental Protection Agency, 1987: On-Site Meteorological Program Guidance for
      Regulatory Modeling Applications. EPA-450/4-87-013.  U.S. Environmental Protection
      Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. [NTIS PB87-227542/A5].

Environmental Protection Agency, 1992a: User's Guide for the Industrial Source Complex
       (ISC2) Dispersion Models, Volumes I,II, and III. EPA-450/4-92-008a-c. U.S.
       Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC [NTIS PB92-232461,
       PB92-232453, and PB92-232479, respectively].

Environmental Protection Agency, 1992b: Protocol for Determining the Best Performing Model
       EPA-454/R-92-025.  U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park,
       NC [NTIS PB93-226082].

Environmental Protection Agency, 1994: Modeling Fugitive Dust Impacts from Surface Coal
       Mining Operations- Phase I. EPA-454/R-94-024. U. S. Environmental Protection
       Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC [NTIS PB95-104980].

 Environmental Protection Agency, 1995a: Modeling Fugitive Dust Impacts from Surface Coal
       Mining Operations- Phase II, Model Evaluation Protocol. EPA-454/R-94-025. U. S.
       Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC [NTIS PB95-146510].

 Environmental Protection Agency, 1995b: User's Guide for the  Industrial Source Complex
       (ISC3) Dispersion Models, Volume II - Description of Model Algorithms.  EPA-454/R-
       95-003b. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.

 Golder, D., 1972: Relations among stability parameters in the surface layer. Boundary-Layer
       Wet, 3,47-58.

 Strimaitis, D., E. Insley, M. Korc, F, Lurmann, 1993: User's Guide for the Model Evaluation
       Methodology (MEM) System for Comparing Model Performance, Version 1.0 (Draft).

 Wang, IT and P.C. Chen, 1980: Estimations of heat and momentum fluxes near ground. Proc.
        2nd Joint Conf. on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology, American Meteorological
        Society, Boston, MA, 764-769.
                                           34

-------
                                 APPENDIX A
            DOCUMENTATION OF MEMOS AND COMMUNICATIONS
      This appendix includes a description of significant memos and other communications
that serve to document the evaluation study, especially providing significant information that
supplements the model evaluation protocol (EPA, 1995a).
                                      A-l

-------

-------
Subject-


Date:

Participants:
Summary of
Discussion:
 Telephone Communication between PES, EPA and Kirk Winges
 regarding source and receptor characteristics

 1/20/95

 Jawad Touma, John Irwin, Dennis Atkinson, Russ Lee (of EPA); Roger
 Erode (of PES); Kirk Winges (of McCulley, Frick & Oilman)
It was decided that the coal dumping area is not represented well by an
area source.  It should, instead, be modeled as a volume source With
dimensions of 20m X 20m with an initial sigma-y of 5m and an initial
sigma-z of 10m.

Also, use the height of the intake valve of the monitors as flagpole height
of the receptors in ISC modeling.

The flat terrain option should be chosen for this modeling study.
Subject:


Date:

Participants:

Summary of
Discussion:
Telephone Communication between PES and MRI regarding
questions on the emission data from MRI

3/21/95

Roger Brode, Jayant Hardikar (of PES); Greg Muleski (of MRI)
PES suggested that the Set 3 emissions do not seem to be corrected for
rainfall mitigation. After some rechecking, MRI agreed that these
corrections had not been applied.
                                        A-2

-------

-------
                                                           cc:
                 G. Muleski
                 R. Neulicht
                            MEMORANDUM

                     MIDWEST RESEARCH INSTITUTE

                             October 18, 1994
  TO:

  FROM:

  SUBJECT:   Project No. 4601-06, Final Data Submittals {Final Description)


  Enclosed are three diskettes containing the data files required for ISC model
  evaluation according to the Model Evaluation Protocol (4/20/94) as corrected on
  8/31/94 and 9/21/94.  Table 1 lists the files contained on each diskette.  Included
  are the f.les originally submitted in connection with Volume II (dated 10/26/93) of
  the draft Phase I report (see INSTRUCT.ME and MINEDATA.EXE).
These files can be found in
 AMBIENT A»R CONCENTRATIONS FOR                           e  oun  n
 Section 2,  Site/Month Concentrations, of Volume II, or on the diskette provided in
 November, 1993.  The file names are HV1.MAY, HV1.JUN ..... MRI6.JUN,
 MRI6.JUL;  they are being provided again at this time.

 METEOROLOfllCA. DATrt: The meteorological data file can be found in  Section 3
 Inter-Mountain Laboratories, Inc. (IML) Meteorological Data, of Volume II   It is   '
 bemg provided on diskette, and the file name is IMLMET.DAT. The file of
 calculated hourly atmospheric stability classes is named CARDIMAG.MET.

 EMISSION INVFNTORY:  RATES AMD , OCAT.ONS: Table 2 lists the files that are
 bemg provided for the PM-10 emission rates; Table 3 lists the files that contain
 source locations. The file named 24HRVPH, previously submitted as Section 6 of
 Volume II, ,s needed to apportion coal and overburden loading emissions to the
 respective source areas.  A separate file, GRADERS.LOC, has been created to
identify (by  day/shift) the road segments where graders were observed to be
operating.
                               A-3

-------
Joe Touma
Page 2
October 18, 1994

A hard copy of AREA-A.ER was submitted on 9/8/94 as an example of an emission
rate summary file for an area source.  Similarly, a hard copy of RD-A.ER was
submitted on 9/9/94 as an example of an emission rate summary file for a road
segment.

Table 4 gives the control efficiencies afforded by rainfall during the affected
monitoring days.  The emission rate files for the following sources need to be
adjusted to reflect these efficiencies:  graders, bulldozing, and wind erosion.

Table 5 presents the TSP/PM-10 emission rate conversion ratios needed to
generate the TSP emission rate files from the corresponding PM-10 emission rate
files.

EMISSION CHARACTERISTICS

The values of release height, initial vertical dispersion (aIO), and particle size
distribution as required for ISC implementation can be found in the Model
Evaluation Protocol.  These values are as follows:  2 m for the release height and
3 m for the initial vertical dispersion.  Table 6 gives the aerodynamic particle size
distributionus, which represent the particles as unit density spheres.
                                   A-4

-------
   IMLMET.DAT  10/13/94
   CARDIMAG.MET 10/18/94
   24HRVPH. 10/8/93

   Previous.
   MINEDATA.EXE  11/11/93
   INSTRUCT.ME 11/11/93
   Ambient.Air
   HV1.MAY ...
   DISKETTE 2
MRI6.JUL 8/27/93
  Source.LOG
  AREAS.LOC  10/18/94
  DRAGLINE.LOG 8/27/93
  GRADERS.LOC  9/27/94
  SCRAPER.LOG  8/27/93
  ALL-RDS.(M)  10/18/94
  ROADA.LOC ...  ROADZ.LOC  8/27/93

  Traffic.ER
  VEHHRS-1.ZIP 10/14/94
  VEHHRS-2.ZIP 10/14/94
  VEHHRS-3.ZIP 10/14/94
  VEHSUM-1.  10/14/94
  VEHSUM-2.  10/14/94
  VEHSUM-3.  10/14/94
 Category. PR
 CABALLOR.WQ1 9/28/94
 DOZ-COAL.WQ1  9/7/94
 DOZ-OVB.WQ1  9/7/94
 DRAGLINE. WQ1 9/7/94
 GRADERS. WQ1  9/13/94
 LD-COAL.WQ1 9/7/94
 LD-OVB.WQ1  9/7/94
 SCRAPERS. WQ1 9/7/94
 UNL-COALWQ1 9/7/94
 UNLD-OVB.WQ1 9/7/94
 WIND-1CO.WQ1 9/30/94
 WIND-1OV.WQ1 9/30/94
 WIND-1RD.WQ1  10/17/94
 WIND-2CO.WQ1  9/30/94
WIND-20V.WQ1  9/30/94
WIND-2RD.WQ1  10/18/94
                          Source.Sum
                          AR-A-SUM.WQ1
                          RD-A-SUM.WQ1
               9/7/94
               9/13/94
NOTE:
           arn-n • -r      ," "" flle name is the date of the latest version
           BOLD md.cates that the file has been revised (or added) since the list
           was submitted on Sept. 27, 1994.                          ISt
                             A-5

-------



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               TABLE 4. CONTROL EFFICIENCY FOR RAINFALL
    Date
Julian Day
Shift
                                         No. of hours
                                          with rain
   Fractional
control efficiency
       (0
5/21
5/27
5/29
6/6
6/8
6/16


6/18


6/22
6/30

7/4
7/6
7/14
7/16
141
147
149
157
159
167


169


173
181

185
187
195
197
2
2
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
1
2
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
4
1
5
3
2
4
8
2
2
3
4
2
1
2
1
1
1
0.13
, 0.50
0.17
0.63
0.50
0.33
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.20
0.38
0.40
0.33
0.10
0.20
0.08
0.08
0.08
NOTE:      To get the controlled emission rate, the emission rate is
            multiplied by (1-c).
                                  A-8

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     TABLE 5. RATIO OF TSP TO PM-10
BASED ON THE EMISSION FACTOR EQUATIONS
Source
Coal loading
Coal unloading
Overburden loading
Overburden unloading
Dragline
Coal haul truck travel
Overburden haul truck travel
Water truck travel
LDV travel
Coal bulldozing
Overburden bulldozing
Graders
Scrapers
Wind erosion: coal loading
Wind erosion: overburden loading
Wind erosion: haul roads
Caballo Rojo
Ratio
Set 1
5.49
2.00
2.00
2.00
4.98
5.70
5.70
5.70
2.78
3.71
5.24
3.48
5.52
2.00
2.00
2.00
See coal
of TSP to PM-10
Set 2
2.11
2.11
2.11
2.11
2.11
4.71
4.71
4.71
2.22
3.71
5.24
3.48
5.52
2.00
2.00
2.00
haul truck travel

Set 3
2.11
2.11
2.11
2.11
2.11
5.00
5.00
5.00
5.54
3.71
5.24
3.48
5.52
2.00
2.00
2.00

               A-9

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                        INTEROFFICE COMMUNICATION


               MIDWEST RESEARCH INSTITUTE

                                  June 15, 1995
 To:      Joe Touma

 From:   Chat CowherdC_SJ—*

 Subject: Mining Emission Inventory Adjustment
Pursuant to our recent telephone discussions, we have concluded that the Set 2 emission
factors for light-duty vehicles traveling on unpaved haul roads require adjustment for the
mitigative effect of road watering. Specifically for any road segment where water trucks
were observed during any particular shift of any particular day, the emissions from light-duty
vehicles for that segment, day and shift should be divided by 2 to reflect the assigned   !
watering control efficiency of 5056.

Please contact me if you have any questions.
cc:    Jay Hardikar, PES
                                 A-10

-------

-------
                                APPENDIX B

 USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR THE MINE EMISSIONS PREPROCESSOR
                                 (MINEMISS)
      This appendix includes a description of the user instructions for the mine emissions
preprocessor program called MINEMISS.  The MINEMISS preprocessor was used to generate
the emission source parameters and hourly emission rates needed for input to the ISC model.

      The input file of the mine emissions preprocessor makes use of the keyword/parameter
approach similar to the ISC2 models. The detailed description of the general instructions for
this approach can be found in Section 2.1 of the ISC2 Users Guide (EPA, 1992a).
                                                                           i
      There are four pathways in the MINEMISS runstream - CO (the COntrol pathway),
RD (the RoaDs pathway), OP (the Open Pit pathway), and EM (the EMissions pathway).
Each pathway has mandatory STARTING and FINISHED keywords. The various keywords
and their usage are described in the following tables.  Note that the 'M1' in the TYPE column
stands for mandatory, 'O' for optional, 'N1 for non-repeatable and  'R' for repeatable.
            Table B-l.  Description of the CONTROL (CO) Pathway for MINEMISS
KEYWORD
INPUNITS
OUEMITYP
ISC2FILE
HOUREMIS
SHIFTDEF
TYPE
M-N
M-N
M-N
M-N
M-N
PARAMETERS
G/S
T.R/HK
SHTFT
SHTFTAVG
filename
filename
filename
DESCRIPTION
The units of the raw input emission files
(grams/second or pounds/hour)
Type of output emissions - by shift or
shift-averaged over the entire period
ISCST2/3 source location/parameter output
file name
ISCST2/3 hourly emissions output file name
Input file with shift start and end times
                                     B-l

-------
         Table B-2.  Description of the ROADS (RD) Pathway for MINEMISS
KEYWORD
=====
SOURCTYP
EMISFILE
LOCAFILE
          PARAMETERS

         VOLUME
                         AttRA
M-N
M-N
filename
filename
DESCRIPTION
===========
Output source type of roads - volume or
area sources	    ._	.	.—
Input file containing roadway emissions for
every shift
Input file containing road segment end point
coordinates and the name of the pit they are
within, if an
         Table B-3.  Description of the OPENPIT (OP) Pathway for MINEMISS
 SRCPARAM
 M-R
                          pitname
                          HPF.NTPTT
                          DESCRIPTION
                          Source name, source type, x, y, z of the pit
                          source
                          x, y,z
 pitname , q ,
 hbase, xinit, yinit,
 pitvol, pitang
 Source name, emission rate, height above
 base, dimensions of the pit in relative terms
 similar to the ISCST2 area source parameter
 card, pit volume, angle of orientation
         Table B-4. Description of the EMISSION (EM) Pathway for MINEMISS
  KEYWORD
  =====
  LOCAFILE

  —^™««——^—^—^^—•••
  EMISFILE
 TYPE
 =====
 M-N
 M-R
  PARAMETERS

 filename
 filename
 HT^  i   ""
 DESCRIPTION
 =============
 File containing additional source location
 coordinates
  Numerous emission files containing
  emissions by shift and the name of the
  source they are associated with.
  -contain Julian day, shift (0/1/2), Q, source
  name to which the emissions are associated
       A complete sample input file is shown below:
                                        B-2

-------
 ** Options file for MINEMIS
 ** Options pathway
 CO STARTING
 CO INPUNITS Ib/hr
 CO OUEHITYP shift

 CO ISC2FILE psetZsv.so
 CO HOUREHIS pset2sv.enri
 CO SHIFTDEF shifts.def 3
 CO FINISHED

 ** Roads Pathway
 RD STARTING
 RD SOURCTYP volume
 RD EHISFILE roads.em2 5
 RD LOCAFILE roads.loc

 RD FINISHED

 ** Open Pit Pathway
 OP STARTING
 OP LOCATION northpit OPENPIT
 OP LOCATION southpit OPENPIT
 OP SRCPARAM northpit 1.0  0.0
               run -  SET 2 - shift avg emis - Roads as Volume Srcs
                 tor g/s - the units of the raw input emissions]
                 [or shiftavg - type of output emissions - by shift
                  or shift-averaged over the period]
                 [ISCST2 Source Location/Parameter Output File Name]
                 [ISCST2 Hourly Emissions Output File Name]
                 [Input File with Shift Start and End Times]
                 [or area - Output  Source Type of  zroads - VoI/Area]
                 [Input File containing Roadway Emissions by Shift]
                 [Input File containing Road Segment End Point  Coordinates
                  and the Name of the Pit they are in, if any]
                 -1524.  1439.  0.
                 -1295. -5030.  0.
                  1829 183 16.7353E6  -45.
 OP SRCPARAM southpit  1.0
 OP FINISHED

 ** Emissions Pathway
 EM STARTING
 EM LOCAFILE SOURCES.LOC
             0.0   518 610 12.9550E6  00.
           [source name,  source type, x,y,z]

           [source name,  emission rate,
            ht  above base,  xinit,yinit,pitvol,
            angle of orientation]
 EH EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
    EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM EMISFILE
 EM FINISHED
DCOAL-N.em2
DCOAL-S.em2
LCOAL-N.em2
LCOAL-S.em2
UCOAL-N.em2
UUOVER-S.emZ
WUOVER-N.em2
WLOVER-S.em2
ULOVER-N.emZ
UOVER-S.emZ
WCOAL-S.em2
UOVER-N.em2
LOVER-S.em2
UCOAL.em2
SCRAPER.em2
LOVER-N.em2
DOVER-S.em2
DRAGLINE.em2
DOVER-N.em2
[File Containing Source Location Coordinates]

[Numerous Emission Files Containing Emissions
 by Shift and the Name of the  Source They are
 associated with.
 -contain Julian day, shift (0/1/2), Q, Source
 name to which the emissions are associated]
        Once the input file and the auxiliary files have been prepared, the program is executed
by typing MINEMISS input/tie disgnosticjoutputftle at the DOS prompt.  The program will
create the ISC2 or ISC3 format output files as specified in the input file.  These output files
will then be ready to be cut and pasted into ISCST2 or  ISCST3 runstream files.  Note that the
output for the AREA source type for roads can only be used with the ISCST3 model, since it
uses rectangular areas of arbitrary orientation and the ISCST2 area source algorithm is limited
to square areas oriented north-south.  The diagnostic output file will report any error messages
that may be encountered during the run.
                                                B-3

-------

-------
                               APPENDIX C

     MODELED AND MONITORED CONCENTRATIONS FOR THE
            CORDERO MINE MODEL EVALUATION STUDY
      This appendix presents the modeled and monitored concentrations for the Cordero Mine
from the model evaluation study. The modeled results are presented for each of the eight
models (see Table 5-1), for each of the nine monitor locations, and for each of the 30 days in
the study period.  The monitored concentrations presented in the last column have been
corrected for background concentration. The PMj0 concentrations are presented first, followed
by the TSP concentrations.
                                     C-l

-------

-------
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-------

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                                   APPENDIX D

                   SUMMARY OF MODEL RESULTS FOR THE
                 CORDERO MINE MODEL EVALUATION STUDY
      This appendix presents the summary tables of highest 24-hour average modeled
concentrations that were generated for the Cordero Mine model evaluation study. The eight
highest concentrations by receptor are presented for ALL sources combined, and for five
addtional source groupings. The tables include the date (yymmddhh) and the receptor
coordinates corresponding to the highest concentrations. The "HIGH 1ST HIGH" value is the
overall highest value from the group of first highest values at each receptor, the "HIGH 2ND
HIGH" value is the overall highest value from the group of second highest values at each
receptor, and so on. Separate summary tables are provided for each combination of pollutant
and model, with the PM10 results presented first,  followed by the TSP results. The source
groups are defined as follows:
Source Group
ALL
ROADS
NPIT
SPIT
ACTVTY
OTHERS
Activities Included
All the sources combined
All road sources
The north pit activities including ramps
The south pit activities including ramps
The gridded sources representing the roaming scraper and
dragline activity
Coal and overburden loading and unloading sources
                                       D-l

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      D.I

POLLUTANT : PM10
  MODEL: BASE
      D-2

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      D-38

-------

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" SURFACE COAL MINE MODEL EVALUATION: CORDERO MINE, TSP *** 06/20/95
* ISCSTM: SET3 - shift emiss - Roads as Volume Sees, w/ depletion *** 08:18:08
PAGE 280
RURAL FLAT FLGPOL DFAULT DRYDPL
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POLLUTANT:TSP
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                                 APPENDIX E
         CORDERO MINE ON-SITE METEOROLOGICAL DATA
      This appendix presents the on-site hourly meteorological data that were used in the
Cordero Mine model evaluation study. The listing includes annotations identifying when missing
data occurred and what data substitutions were made.
                                       E-l

-------

-------
Column  Description
   A    Julian  Day
   B    Hour  of Day
   C    Wind  Speed (mph)
   D    Wind  Direction  (deg)
   E    Sigma Theta (deg)
   F    Air Temperature  (deg  F)
   G    Precipitation  (in)
Note: The following data is for the year 1993.
* Indicates that the information (in the columns
indicated in the parenthesis) came from the
Caballo Rojo met station.
** Indicates that the o,  information  came  from the
Coal Creek Mine's met station.
*** Indicates that the os information came  from the
Black Thunder Mine's met station.
139 1
139 2
139 3
139 4
139 5
139 6
139 7
139 8
139 9
139 10
139 11
139 12
139 13
139 14
139 15
139 16
139 17
139 18.
139 19
139 20
139 21
139 22
139 23
139 24
140 1
140 2
140 3
140 4
140 5
140 6
140 7
140 8
140 9
140 10
140 11
140 12
140 13
140 14
140 15
140 16
140 17
140 18
140 19
140 20
140 21
140 22
140 23
140 24
141 1
141 2
141 3
141 4
141 5
141 6
141 7
5.5 297
7.8 304
7.3 311
7.8 331
7.3 323
5.9 295
4.9 325
6.9 347
8.9 353
9.4 16
9.8 356
10.5 339.
9.9 5
10.7 349
12.6 12
11.6 15
10.3 23
11.6 31
11.5 41
8.3 56
5.6 76
5.7 98
7.2 137
7.4 144
10.5 180
10.5 165
10.5 162
10.3 150
11.1 150
14.4 153
14.3 155
15.2 153 .
15.0 158
15.5 159
12.9 159
10.5 146
9.9 147
7.3 138
7.0 228
6.1 125
4.2 163
5.7 141
8.3 133
8.6 147
7.7 156
9.7 159
14.7 193
13.4 174
14.7 162
11.5 165
13.2 158
13.7 158
15.3 169
16.5 164
16.5 164
8
3
3
2
5
5
9
14
18
21
25
17
25
19
20
20
15
10
7
6
8
8
4
4
6
4
3
4
5
4
5
6
8
9
12
15
16
22
, 23
25
24
15
5
3
8
6
7
4
4
5
4
4
4
3
4
45.9
45.9
44.5
41.5
39.3
42.2
48.1
51.6
54.1
55.7
57.2
58.7
59.7
60.8
61.0
60.8
59.2
58.1
55.5
51.6
48.3
45.1
44.0
43.4
42.7
42.0
41.4
42.1
42.4
44.4
46.3
48.9
52.0
55.7
58.8
61.1
.63.6
65.8
67.3
68.3
68.3
67.4
63.5
58.7
56.9
56.7
57.6
56.8
55.5
54.1
51.2
48.6
47.6
49.4
51.8
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0:00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
. 0.00-
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Q.OO
                                              E-2

-------
141 8
141 9
141 10
141 11
141 12
141 13
141 14
141 15
141 16
141 17
141 18
141 19
141 20
141 21
141 22
141 23
141 24
142 1
142 2
142 3
142 4
142 5
142 6
142 7
142 8
142 9
142 10
142 11
142 12
142 13
142 14
142 15
142 16
142 17
142 18
142 19
142 20
142 21
142 22
142 23
142 24
143 1
143 2
143 3
143 4
143 5
143 6
143 7
143 8
143 9
143 10
143 11
143 12
143 13
143 14
143 15
143 16
143 17
143 18
143 19
143 20
143 21
143 22
143 23
143 24
144 1
144 2
144 3
144 4
144 5
144 6
144 7
144 8
144 9
144 10
17.7 168
19.2 168
17.9 166
15.6 155
13.7 217
14.0 272
15.5 280
16.1 267
12.8 256
10.4 335
13.1 344
13.5 325
25.6 246
5.0 211
8.1 304
11.6 319
9.2 308
9.2 310
7.3 318
5.7 311
5.5 294
8.6 292
12.1 312
13.7 325
15.0 325
18.6 334
18.5 331
18.3 331
18.6 335
13.0 346
12.3 349
15.5 334
14.9 333
13.0 333
11.1 326
9.5 307
9.0 297
5.8 307
6.1 273
10.0 289
10.0 303
11.0 328
10.2 309
9.4 315
11.2 310
10.4 318
12.6 311
15.9 318
18.2 325
22.7 328
25.9 329
24.4 328
27.3 331
23.5 338
18.0 339
19.2 336
20.7 345
17.0 346
19.2 342
18.3 345
14.7 336
10.1 337
8.8 343
10.2 5
7.2 348
5.4 307
5.2 306
4.7 295
4.9 282
5.5 272
6.1 303
9.1 309
9.9 332
10.3 324
10.1 334
5
5
4
6
17
12
12
10
12
22
11
16
6
27
11
3
4
4
4
5
9
5
3
5
4
4
5 '
6
3
6
11
5
5
5
4
4
6
9
4
3
5
7
5
4
3
. 3
4
3
4
5
5
5
5
6
10
8
12
10
10
10
5
3
1
7
6
12
5
10
5
6
5
7
9
8
11
55.7
58.0
60.3
65.1
74.1
77.0
77.8
77.9
77.6
77.3
73.2
68.4
53.9
55.1
54.6
54.2
52.5
52.9
52.2
52.0
52.5
52.7
52.8
53.8
53.4
56.5
56.4
55.3
53.3
51.8
55.2
55.2
53.7
53.3
52.1
52.2
50.7
46.6
44.4
44.0
42.9
44.7
44.5
44 .3
43.8
43.9
44.4
44 .8
46.5
50.5
51.6
51.3
52.5
53.6
55.4
55.4
54.6
52.7
51.7
50.0
46.5
43.8
42.2
40.8
39.0
36.8
36.5
35.5
37.2
37.8
39.8
42.0
43.6
45.0
46.9
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.54
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
p. oo
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00.
0.00
'o.oo
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
E-3

-------
144
144
144
144
144
144
144
144
144
144
144
144
144
144
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
146
147
141
147
147
147
147
.147
147
147
147
147
147
147
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
. 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
8
9
10
9
9
8
8
6
4
4
5
5
4
1
3
4
4
3
2
3
4
9
10
9
8
8
7
8
9
9
9
10
9
10
8
8
10
12
10
10
7
10
12
13
9
10
10
14
18
22
19
22
23
19
18
14
10
10
11
15
18
13
12
13
12
9
6
6
9
13
11
10
8
7
7
.8
.1
.3
.8
.4
.2
.1
.0
.7
.0
.6
.2
.5
.9
.8
.8
.2
.2
.7
.0
.5
.4
.2
.6
.6
.7
.2
.7
.2
.0
.6
.2
.9
.4
.4
.5
.6
.2
.0
.6
.9
.3
.2
.8
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.1
.7
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339
350
340
340
349
337
328
310
319
251
235
183
247
288
228
193
182
174
155
137
174
214
222
214
194
194
174
185
184
175
169
166
149
133
126
136
150
156
169
172
160
154
170
166
199
183
230
266
247
249
257
261
278
262
255
260
261
260
356
337
345
339
337
335
331
321
321
311
329
1
5
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4
14
11
14
18
20
18
22
18
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17
19
10
5
17
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43
29
7
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16
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21
13
8
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17
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28
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00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
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00
00
00
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00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
E-4

-------
147 14
147 15
147 16
147 17
147 18
147 19
147 20
147 21
147 22
147 23
147 24
148 1
148 2
148 3
148 4
148 5
148 6
148 7
148 8
148 9
148 10
148 11
148 12
148 13
148 14
148 15
148 16
148 17
148 18
148 19
148 20
148 21
148 22
148 23
148 24
149 1
149 2
149 3
149 4
149 5
149 6
149 7
149 8
149 9
149 10
149 11
149 12
149 13
149 14
149 15
149 16
149 17
149 18
149 19
149 20
149 21
149 22
149 23
149 24
150 1
150 2
150 3
150 4
150 5
150 6
150 7
150 8
150 9
150 10
150 11
150 12
150 13
150 14
150 15
150 16
5.8 44
5.8 275
6.2 93
9.3 101
11.5 94
9.2 87
7.2 73
9.7 49
16.1 343
14.5 354
15.6 63
13.4 109
10.5 89
9.2 165
8.6 165
3.9 133
3.1 70
8.3 138
9.1 154
7.4 153
6.2 152
5.3 129
5.1 156
6.7 155
9.2 144
11.0 152'
14.6 145
17.3 146
20.4 140
25.1 143
25.5 146
12.4 116
9.1 20
10.0 4
12.8 142
6.6 156
7.1 177
6.6 226
6.5 145
10.5 139
12.1 164
11.5 164
11.8 180
9.9 184
3.8 175
2.9 268
10.4 309
12.8 316
10.4 322
9.6 313
10.6 302
14.1 325
19.7 318
15.5 339
11.8 345
£.7 355
8.7 18
5.0 333
3.7 290
6.6 309
6.3 311
8.4 294
10.6 288
11.5 289
8.5 316
8.3 329
13.5 351
13.7 350
12.3 340
13.3 355
11.0 354
10.1 44
8.8 281
7.5 52
3.3 24
32
29
21
9
7
6
8
8
8
13
13
5
6
7
5
9
13
9
8
8
16
26
28
31
21
15
9
6
5
4
8
12
21
7
4
23
7
13
14
7
6
5
6
7
27
51
15
10
9
14
13
8
8
11
9
8
4
6
14
5
6
5
3
2
6
6
11
15
11
17
21
19
16
15
43
67.1
67.2
66.8
65.9
65.3
63.6
60.7
60.0
55.5
52.2
53.1
53.1
53.0
52.7
52.6
51.8
53.8
55.9
56.9
58.1
60.4
62.8
66.0
68.9
70.1
72.0
72.2
70.0
65.9
62.8
59.7
57.4
56.6
56.3
55.7
54.1
52.5
51.6
50.2
51.2
51.7
53.0
55.8
58.8
62.7
66.9
68.4
70.9
70.3
72.2
71.6
69.8
58.2
61.1
58.0
54.7
53.3
51.0
50.5
49.8
47.9
47.1
47.1
47.7
48.9
52.1
54.8
56.4
59.1
61.4
62.8
62.5
62.7
62.5
63.5
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.12
0.26
0.32
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.22
0.06
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
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0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
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0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
E-5

-------
150 17
150 18
150 19
150 20
150 21
1.50 22
150 23
150 24
151 1
151 2
151 3
151 4
151 5
151 6
151 7
151 8
151 9
151 10
151 11
151 12
151 13
151 14
151 15
151 16
151 17
151 18
151 19
151 20 .
151 21
151 22
151 23
151 24
152 1
152 2
152 3
152 4
152 5
152 6
152 7
152 8
152 9
152 10
152 11
152 12
152 13
152 14
152 15
152 16
152 17
152 18
152 19
152 20
152 21
152 22
152 23
152 24
153 1
153 2
153 3
153 4
153 5
153 6
153 7
153 8
153 9
153 10
153 11
153 12
153 13
153 14
153 15
153 16
153 17
153 18
153 19
5.8 57
5.9 101
6.7 98
4.4 108
6.2 222
5.1 150
10.4 152
10.2 155
10.0 168
11.4 181
10.4 181
8.2 173
8.3 176
7.9 177
9.5 178
6.8 177
4.1 154
4.7 126
' 5.8 125
7.3 110
8.2 158
7.5 148
9.1 140
10.8 134
12.6 136
11.2 128
10.8 127
12.2 135
17.0 130
20.3 137
19.7 150
15.9 154
15.5 155
13.5 215
5.2 106
7.6 160
9. 9 186
8.0 182
9.8 193
10.9 238*
9.0 270.
13.3 286
15.5 323
11.3 337
13.1 56
11.4 65
12.6 20
8.6 70
7.5 7
14.2 220
20.8 339
13.5 336
9.2 325
6.2 312
7.4 287
11.4. 305
10.2 314
10.1 308
7.8 299
7.3 283
9.6 314
15.0 311
16.8 307
16.2 311
15.9 317
17.9 319
16.4 317
15.4 344
16.8 353
16.7 356
17.5 8
17.0 16
13.9 17
12.4 31
11.8 36
19
15
6
6
10
8
6
5
5
3
3
5
3
6
7
10
22
23
20
21
17
24
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14
7
4
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5
5
4
5
8
18
22
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5
6
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7
12
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10
14
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6
5
6
4
4
5
4
5
5
5
5
6
5
6
8
14
19
16
13
10
14
9
7
63.1
63.0
61.5
56.7
54.1
52.2
51.0
49.9
48.7
47.6
46.8
46.2
45.7
47.9
51.6
56.2
60.8
64.9
68.1
70.5
71.4
72.9
72.7
73.0
71.8
69.3
66.8
65.1
63.3
. 60.9
58.9
58.3
58.4
55.0
53.4
51.7
52.4
55.1
56.9
61.5
65.9
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70.8
66.0
68.6
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62.6
64.2
61.5
56.4
52.5
52.0
51.7
50.4
48.4
49.9
50.7
50.1
49.5
48.1
47.4
48.4
48.4
49.8
51.2
55.0
56.1
57.8
58.1
59.0
57.6
56.9
55.1
53.4
52.9
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.18
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
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0.00
0.00
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0.03
0.02
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0.00
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0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
E-6

-------
153 20
153 21
153 22
153 23
153 24
154 1
154 2
154 3
154 4
154 S
154 6
154 7
154 8
154 9
154 10
154 11
154 12
154 13
154 14
154 15
154 16
154 17
154 18
154 19
154 20
154 21
154 22
154 23
154 24
155 1
155 2
155 3
155 4
155 5
155 6
155 7
155 8
155 9
155 10
155 11
155 12
155 13
155 14
155 15
155 16
155 17
155 18
155 19
155 20
155 21
155 22
155 23
155 24
156 1
156 2
156 3
156 4
156 5
156 6
156 7
156 8
156 9
156 10
156 11
156 12
156 13
156 14
156 15
156 16
156 17
156 18
156 19
156 20
156 21
156 22
12.6 37
11.4 48
8.9 50
8.8 60
10.8 132
8.1 134
11.0 129
11.5 139
14.6 130
12.6 142
9.6 140
14.5 139
16.6 136
19.5 135
22.1 126
21.2 131
20.2 127
20.6 145
19.7 144
17.3 134
16.9 129
12.9 120
9.7 122
9.3 145
11.0 160
9.4 167
11.8 161
11.2 175
10.7 194
9.9 200
8.0 180
9.1 174
11.2 159
11.2 159
14.4 163
15.6 162
16.6 172
20.4 167
22.7 173
22.0 174
22.1 176
21.2 179
20.4 181
19.6 177
21.2 174
22.0 159
23.7 159
22.6 159
22.8 158
21.9 157
20.8 157
19.5 161
18.6 158
17.4 157
14.6 166
14.2 171
12.4 171
13.7 177
12.0 167
11.1 161
10.5 184
8.2 189
5.8 225
5.4 219
6.6 266
7.0 254
10.7 254
8.2 152
9.9 112
6.4 203
5.7 37
6
8
8
11
13
10
8
6
7
5
6
5
6
5
6
5
6
7
7
8
9
8
8
8
7
6
5
5
6
4
4
4
5
4
4
5
7
7
7
8
9
8
10
10
8
5
4
4
4
5
4
3
4
4
5
4
4
3
4
6
8
12
27
41
24
42
44
28
14
37
16
12.9 13 6
13.1 21
12.0 14
5
4
10.8 360 7
49.8
47.4
47.0
46.6
47.4
46.7
46.8
47.1
46.7
46.3
46.5
46.5
45.6
46.1
44.5
43.3
43.5
42.9
44.0
43.7
43.6
43.7
43.0
42.6 '
42.0
41.3
41.3
40.8
39.9
39.2
37.7
38.2
39.9
40.1
40.4
41.1
43.1
45.6
47.4
50.8
54.5
56.4
58.7
60.2
60.5
59.2
57.3
55.9
53.6
51.. 8
51.2
50.0
48.6
47.5
46.1
45.3
44.5
44.5
47.2
49.7
53.7
57.4
62.0
64.6
65.7
65.3
57.8
60.5
62.5
61.4
58.1
56.1
53.8
52.9
52.5
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.08
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.04
0.02
0.04
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.01
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
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0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
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0.00
0.00
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0.04
0.01
0.00
0.01
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
E-7

-------
156 23
156 24
157 1
157 2
157 3
157 4
157 5
157 6
157 7
157 8
157 9
157 10
157 11
157 12
157 13
157 14
157 15
157 16
157 17
157 18
157 19
157 20
157 21
157 22
157 23
157 24
158 1
158 2
158 3
158 4
158 5
158 6
158 7
158 8
158 9
158 10
158 11
158 12
158 13
158 14
158 15
158 16
158 17
158 18
158 19
158 20
158 21
158 22
158 23
158 24
159 1
159 2
159 3
159 4
159 5
159 6
159 7
159 8
159 9
159 10
159 11
159 12
159 13
159 14
159 15
159 16
159 17
159 18
159 19
159 20
159 21
159 22
159 23
159 24
160 1
11.9 352
11.0 18
10.6 28
10.7 25
11.5 359
9.7 13
9.6 21
7.3 40
9.7 40
9.3 63
11.7 83
6.6 83
5.9 63
6.5 89
7.2 94
9.1 117
18.3 224
18.9 152
17.6 151
16.9 143
13.9 146
8.3 179
6.7 181
5.0 213
4.5 59
7.4 97
6.5 214
2.9 157
6.6 245
5.8 285
9.3 226
6.3 200 "
7.3 273
10.8 275
12.6 264
12.0 270
12.9 283
21.7 276
27.2 266
27.5 266
30.5 283
29.1 289 ,
32.8 293
30.8 300
29.5 299
28.6 301
31.3 297
32.8 304
33.1 304
35.0 306
34.0 309
31.1 306
26.6 304
27.3 311
27.6 314
28.6 321
28.9 315
26.9 312
29.4 308
34.3 309
32.3 305
32.8 301
29.1 306
29.7 313
30.4 313
26.7 309
24.3 310
23.6 312
20.6 317
19.4 315
16.0 301
15.0 297
10.3 289
12.3 287
15.3 284
10
7
4
9
9
4
3
7
6
9
6
7
11
13
7
8
6
5
5
6
6
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29
16
6
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3
4
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6
7
7
5
5
6
6
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51.7
50.9
50.5
49.6
49.6
48.7
48.2
48.7
50.0
52.4
52.5
52.2
54.0
56.5
57.0
58.8
60.0
58.3
55.6
52.6
51.5
51.3
51.0
50.4
50.4
50.8
50.7
50.1,
50.2
49.7
49.1
47.5
47.0
46.5
46.3
46.4
46.3
45.4
43.6
44.2
45.3
45.4
45.8
44.8
43.7
42.8
43.1
43.1
42.6
41.5
41.6
41.8
41.9
42.4
42.7
42.6
43.6
45.6
46.4
47.8
50.1
51.7
53.8
56.3
56.5
56.3
55.5
54.7
53.7
51.7
50.6
49.8
46.8
46.0
46.1
0.00
0.00
0.00
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0.00
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0.00
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0.18
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0.19
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0.00 * (C,D,F,G) **
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0.00
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E-8

-------
160 2
160 3
160 4
160 5
160 6
160 7
160 8
160 9
160 10
160 11
160 12
160 13
160 14
160 IS
160 16
160 17
160 18
160 19
160 20
160 21
160 22
160 23
160 24
161 1
161 2
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161 10
161 11
161 12
161 13
161 14
161 15
161 16
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161 18
161 19
161 20
161 21
161 22
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162 1
162 2
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162 8
162 9
162 10
162 11
162 12
162 13
162 14
162 15
162 16
162 17
162 18
162 19
162 20
162 21
162 22
162 23
162 24
163 1
163 2
163 3
163 4
14.2 285
12.8 291
12.4 297
11.1 294
13.5 309
17.4 304
15.7 307
14.9 318
14.1 317
13.5 315
12.9 311
11.0 307
8.3 290
6.5 297
4.4 221
3.1 249
3.6 191
4.6 116
6.1 120
6.6 132
8.1 150
5.3 180
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7.3 194
6.2 175
5.4 185
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5.3 186
5.3 170
4.6 176
4.9 172
4.7 231
6.1 324
3.9 256
3.5 214
4.3 255
5.3 193
5.6 194
6.1 165
8.5 169
9.5 182
5.7 183
6.7 158
9.1 157
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7.6 166
10.7 164
10.2 206
6.6 237
5.1 307
3.0 275
7.8 237
4.3 230
5.7 172
8.2 189
14.0 217
18.2 217
22.8 220
21.0 231
19.9 234
19.0 237
15.0 247
7.5 243
10.2 208
14.3 212
13.9 210
11.3 191
11.5 184
12.9 184
13.1 182
13.3 175
12.5 161
9.9 229
6.7 159
2
2
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E-9

-------
163
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163
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* (D) ***
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E-10

-------
166 8
166 9
166 10
166 11
166 12
166 13
166 14
166 15
166 16
166 17
166 18
166 19
166 20
166 21
166 22
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12.6 104
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6.6 185
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E-ll

-------
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01
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00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
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00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
E-12

-------
172 14
172 15
172 16
172 17
172 18
172 19
172 20
172 21
172 22
172 23
172 24
173 1
173 2
173 3
173 4
173 5
173 6
173 7
173 8
173 9
173 10
173 11
173 12
173 13
173 14
173 15
173 16
173 17
173 18
173 19
173 20
173 21
173 22
173 23
173 24
174 1
174 2
174 3
174 4
174 5
174 6
174 7
174 8
174 9
174 10
174 11
174 12
174 13
174 14
174 15
174 16
174 17
174 18
174 19
174 20
174 21
174 22
174 23
174 24
175 1
175 2
175 3
175 4
175 5
175 6
175 7
175 8
175 9
175 10
175 11
175 12
175 13
175 14
175 15
175 16
20.1 153
19.3 202
22.7 150
23.6 156
17.8 263
16.6 34
21.0 150
21.5 147
21.8 166
18.1 161
15.5 159
13.1 167
12.3 169
11.1 175
10.4 177
12.9 181
12.1 181
11.3 196
12.4 215
12.9 242
9.2 297
8.2 309
5.9 328
8.2 335
2.9 283
19.0 310
14.0 5
11.6 41
10.5 65
6.8 94
4.2 114
3.2 75
3.9 27
2.5 213
6.1 284
5.1 302
9.3 331
7.1 337
7.0 325
6.1 316
7.9 304
7.9 295
8.0 277
9.2 268
11.2 281
10.9 288
13.1 319
21.2 332
28.7 332
28.0 329
14.5 332
22.1 320
25.1 321
20.3 317
8.9 296
9.8 281
8.6 272
7.0 252
9.5 241
5.9 286
4.9 197
8.6 227
14.2 250
13.5 260
12.4 268
12.7 262
13.1 273
14.3 284
12.6 283
12.1 276
14.9 280
16.6 299
19.4 312
20.4 312
20.4 310
7
9
8
6
7
11
9
4
6
4
4
4
6
6
6
4
4
4
7
9
15
19
29
20
39
20
13
9
9
7
6
12
15
30
15
10
6
9
4
5
5
6
10
9
11
9
11
7
4
4
8
6
5
3
4
3
3
5
3
14
15
6
3
3
3
4
4
5
8
13
11
9
8
7
6
81.8
82.6
75.6
69.0
70.2
68.7
65.2
62.8
61.3
59.6
57.5
56.3
56.1
54.9
53.8
53.5
57.6
62.1
68.1
70.9
72.4
73.1
73.2
68.4
66.6
56.6
61.0
61.1
60.8
59.9
56.6
54.9
53.1
52.2
50.9
49.9 •
50.8
50.4
49.0
48.0
48.9
49.9
51.3
52.8
55.6
57.6
58.6
54.5
48.1
44.3
49.4
52.5
52.3
48.7
44.0
41.7
40.3
39.6
40.6
37.5
35.3
37.9
42.2
43.9
44 .7
46.9
49.8
52.0
55.3
57.9
59.0
58.9
60.0
58.7
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0.00
0.00
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0.00
0.00
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0.00
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0.00
0.00
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0.07
0.17
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0.06
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0.00
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0.00
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0.00
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0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
E-13

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175 17
175 18
175 19
175 20
175 21
175 22
175 23
175 24
176 1
176 2
176 3
176 4
176 5
176 6
176 7
176 8
176 9
176 10
176 11
176 12
176 13
176 14
176 15
176 16
176 17
176 18
176 19
176 20
176 21
176 22
176 23
176 24
177 1
177 2
177 3
177 4
177 5
177 6
177 7
177 8
177 9
177 10
177 11
177 12
177 13
177 14
177 15
177 16
177 17
177 18
177 19
177 20
177 21
177 22
177 23
177 24
178 1
178 2
178 3
178 4
178 5
178 6
178 7
178 8
178 9
178 10
178 11
178 12
178 13
178 14
178 15
178 16
178 17
178 18
178 19
20.0 307
19.4 315
15.7 321
12.4 313
9.7 305
7.1 300
7.6 299
7.3 279
9.3 274
12.2 300
9.4 285
8.9 278
8.2 284
7.4 280
10.5 286
11.9 301
15.4 306
17.2 311
17.0 303
14.1 301
11.7 285
10.4 286
7.7 290
8.2 287
7.4 291
6.6 310
6.0 330
5.1 335
2.6 246
2.7 223
5.7 210
6.7 198
9.5 203
7.5 194
3.9 173
3.6 150
3.1 157
2.2 218
2.9 57
3.2 78
2.3 279
2.5 179
3.8 244
4.6 201
4.6 222
5.0 212
4.5 202
3.5 180
2.9 264
2.9 286
11.5 73
8.1 74
4.6 91
6.1 138
13.6 3
11.7 87
7.7 117
6.7 164
8.2 158
10.4 153
9.6 153
11.1 167
11.5 166
9.3 169
8.1 200
8.9 285
7.4 250
9.1 230
6.9 229
5.3 252
3.5 335
3.7 32
3.5 188
5.6 86
5.4 91
5
5
4
4
4
6
5
6
5
3
4
3
3
3
4
6
9
7
11
13
14
13
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19
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6
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4
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5
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12
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26
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5
58.1
57.8
55.9
53.0
51.4
50.9
49.9
49.0
49.3
49.8
48.3
46.4
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50.6
54.0
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59.3
61.2
62.6
63.2
64.8
66.1
67.0
67.5
67.7
66.3
60.8
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50.2
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49.8
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44.6
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49.4
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65.0
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73.4
74.2
76.3
78.2
78.3
79.5
81.7
80.4
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0.00
0.00
E-14

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178 20
178 21
178 22
178 23
178 24
179 1
179 2
179 3
179 4
179 5
179 6
179 7
179 8
179 9
179 10
179 11
179 12
179 13
179 14
179 15
179 16
179 17
179 18
179 19
179 20
179 21
179 22
179 23
179 24
180 1
180 2
180 3
180 4
180 5
180 6
180 7
180 8
180 9
180 10
180 11
180 12
180 13
180 14
180 15
180 16
180 17
180 18
180 19
180 20
180 21
180 22
180 23
180 24
181 1
181 2
181 3
181 4
181 5
181 6
181 7
181 8
181 9
181 10
181 11
181 12
181 13
181 14
181 15
181 16
181 17
181 18
181 19
181 20
181 21
181 22
4.7 113
6.3 197
3.6 173
2.8 198
6.6 139
5.9 164
5.7 191
6.6 184
9.0 175
9.7 164
10.5 181
18.1 163
19.0 156
18.8 158
20.7 157
19.8 156
15.3 160
14.2 150
15.3 141
17.9 144
20.1 137
23.8 127
27.2 130
26.6 129
26.1 171
25.4 135
22.8 331
14.9 275
13.3 343
14.1 32
5.7 22
4.4 80
4.2 311
8.8 293
16.3 314
21.4 334
18.9 334
22.8 303
21.4 321
18.4 325
15.3 324
14.6 312
12.5 329
15.3 349
13.1 23
11.4 31
13.4 36
11.7 26
7.4 32
5.0 2
6.6 360
5.7 4
4.6 295
5.1 297
4.2 275
4.9 281
5.0 132
5.9 278
5.3 284
3.0 224
3.4 108
5.7 155
5.2 208
4.6 205
5.0 195
5.0 210
4.9 228
3.5 254
4.2 196
4.8 237
5.8 110
8.1 91
8.3 97
7.2 105
6.6 127
7
13
22
33
16
19
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10
10
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7
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63.1
63.3
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56.8
56.3
55.1
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52.5
53.2
53.1
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53.3
51.8
51.8
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62.0
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E-15

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181
181
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
182
183
183
183
183
183
183
183
183
183
183
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183
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183
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183
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184
184
184
184
184
184
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184
184
184
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184
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184
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19
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21
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1
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16
17
18
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20
21
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1
2
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7
8
9
10
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8
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E-16

-------
185 2
185 3
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187 1
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187 9
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187 13
187 14
187 15
187 16
187 17
187 18
187 19
187 20
187 21
187 22
187 23
187 24
188 1
188 2
188 3
188 4
25.0 295
22.5 292
21.3 299
23.2 295
18.7 291
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22.2 307
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16.6 309
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9.6 275
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E-17

-------
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                                              E-19

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194
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00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
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00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
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00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
01
03
00
00
,00
.00
,00
,00
,00
,00
,00
,01
.00
,00
,00
.00
,00
E-20

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197 14
197 15
          5.9 309  18   66.2
197 19
197 23
197 24
198  1
198  2
198  3
198  4
198  5
198  6
198  7
198  8
198  9
198 10
198 11
198 12
198 13
198 14
198 16
198 17
198 18
 198  20
 198  21
 198  22
 198  23
 198  24
 199   1
 199   2
 199   3
 199   4
 199   5
 199   6
 199   7
 199  9
 199 10
 199 11
 199 12
 199 13
 199 14
 5.8    5  25
 199 17
 199 18
 199 19
 199 20
 199 21
 199 22
 199 23
 199 24
 8.4 339   8
10.4 330   6
11.1 357  19
 9.9  61  15
 8.4  85   5
 7.5 167  17
 7.3 197  19
15.7  16  15
14.7 245  13
 198  19    11.1  108
 8.7 137   7
 9.8 129   7
 8.5 331  13
10.8  85  21
 8.8  74   8
 4.3  63   8
 2.7  31  24
 5.3 296  19
 3.8  98  18
 2.5  13  31
  8.9 284  17
 199  8   14.5 310
 16.9  319
 17.7  326
 15.1  332
 11.7  334   16
 11.9  333   14
 15.9  347   13
 15.5  360   14
 14.6   11    7
  4.2  335  11
  4.4  349  13
  5.1   48  14
  6.2   45   8
               67.2
197 16   10.3 342  16   68.6
197 17   16.3 334   4   66.4
197 18   18.2 341  10   62.3
         14.7   7  12   57.0
197 20   12.1  24  11   54.6
197 21   11.5  19   7   53.4
197 22   11.4   1  13   53.9
8.1  28  20   52.4
8.6 359  15   51.8
              51.0
              51.0
              52.3
              51.6
              51.0
 4.5 290  17   51.8
 5.4 249  15   55.2
 6.1 203  16   58.2
              61.0
              63.7
 9.3 189  20   66.2
 9.9 315  22   68.3
11.6 299  17   69.2
12.8 203  18   71.1
198 15   14.0 305   16   71.5
              71.8
              67.1
13.6 358  16   62.7
              64.8
              61.8
              60.8
              59.5
              60.9
              57.3
              57.0
              57.2
              58.2
              58.3
              58.1
 3.1 337  20   57.7
              59.6
              60.8
              61.0
              62.7
              64.1
 12.8  331   12    65.5
               66.9
               68.0
 199 15   12.8 336  12   69.2
 199 16   14.9 340  13   69.3
               68.9
               67.6
               64.9
  9.3 353  10   60.2
               55.6
               53.1
               52.5
               50.6
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.04
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.10
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
 0.00
 0.00
 0.00
 0.00
 0.00
                                              E-21

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                                 APPENDIX F
           COPY OF U.S. EPA/A&WMA CONFERENCE PAPER
      This appendix includes a copy of a paper presented at the International Symposium on
Measurements of Toxic and Related Air Pollutants, cosponsored by the U.S. EPA and the Air and
Waste Management Association (A&WMA), held in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina in
May 1995. The paper presents an overview of application of the ISC model to surface coal
mining operations, and also presents a comparison of total emissions by source category from the
Cordero Mine data base used in this evaluation.
                                       F-l

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                 Improvements to the Industrial Source Complex Model:
                      Application to Surface Coal Miming Operations
                              Jayant A. Hardikar and Roger W. Brode
                                  Pacific Environmental Services, Inc.
                                    5001 South Miami Boulevard
                               Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2077

                                 Jawad S. Touma and John S. Irwin
                  Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division, Air Resources Laboratoiy
                       National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
                             Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
                  (On Assignment to the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
                           United States Environmental Protection Agency)
ABSTRACT
       As mandated by the Clean Air Act Amendments, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has
been reviewing and improving the accuracy of the Industrial Source Complex (ISC2) model. Three significant
modifications have been incorporated into the recently released beta version of ISCST2 model, called
ISCSTDFT - a new area source algorithm, a new pit retention algorithm and dry and wet deposition
algorithms.  EPA has also collected emissions, meteorological and ambient air concentration data from an open
pit surface coal mine. Currently, a study is being carried out to evaluate the performance of the existing and
the new versions of the ISCST2 model for modeling fugitive dust emissions from a surface coal mine
operation.
       This paper briefly discusses the new features of the ISCSTDFT model and also describes the
procedures being used for the model evaluation study. A status report along with some preliminary results has
been included as well.

INTRODUCTION
       The Clean Air Act Amendments, Section 234(a), require the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
to analyze the accuracy of the Industrial Source Complex (ISC2) air quality dispersion model1 and Compilation
of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, AP-422 to determine the effect on the air quality of fugitive dust emissions
from surface coal mines. Fugitive dust emissions from surface coal mine operations include emissions from
bulldozing (coal and overburden), dragline, graders, haul trucks and other vehicles traveling on unpaved haul
roads, loading and unloading of coal and overburden,  scraper activity, and wind erosion at various parts of a
coalmine.
       The EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) has also collected a comprehensive
data base containing the following information: (a) 24-hour ambient air quality data for TSP (particles captured
by the standard high-volume air samples) and PM-10 (particles no greater than 10 micrometers in aerodynamic
diameter) from a nine-station monitoring network distributed in and around the Cordero mine in Wyoming
during the period May-July 1993; (b) on-site meteorological data (including temperature, precipitation, wind
speed, and wind direction) during the monitoring period; (c) time-resolved information about mine operations
(source activity) during the monitoring period; (d) estimation of time-varying emission rates for all significant
sources (i.e., traffic on haul roads and equipment operations associated with topsoil, overburden, and coal
removal) operating during the monitoring period3. In addition, a statistical model evaluation protocol
describing the models and data bases to be used for testing has also been published4.

                                             F-2

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       The ongoing activities in this arena include:
1.  Model implementation: The Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST2) model has been revised to
   incorporate a mine pit retention algorithm, an improved area source algorithm, new dry deposition and wet
   deposition algorithms. This revised model is referred to as ISCSTDFT.  The model has also been modified
   to incorporate an hourly emissions file option for the purpose of this model evaluation study. The
   ISCSTDFT model is placed on the Technology Transfer Network (TTN) bulletin board for beta testing.
2.  Developing improved source characterizations: A method for characterizing the source activity data in the
   appropriate formats for the existing and new ISCST2 models is being developed. The models will be run
   using those specified source activity methods.
3.  Statistical model evaluation protocol:  The statistical model evaluation protocol describes the modeling
   systems, observational data bases, statistical measures for determining model performance and evaluating
   model overprediction. The statistical analysis of model performance will be performed using a model
   evaluation software5 that implements the statistical measures for determining model performance and
   evaluating model overprediction6. The basic test statistic is a robust estimate of the highest concentration
   (RHC), based on the largest concentrations within a data set. The software calculates a composite
   performance measure (CPM), based on the absolute fractional bias of the RHC values from the predicted
   and observed data sets.  Differences in the CPM values between different models provide a measure of the
   relative performance of the models on a given data set.
4. Model evaluation: The existing ISCST2 model as well as the ISCSTDFT models will be evaluated as
   specified in the model evaluation protocol. The input data to the model evaluation will include the model
   predictions based on the source activity methods and the observed concentrations from the ambient
   monitoring network.

NEW COMPONENTS OF THE ISCSTDFT MODEL
Dry and Wet Deposition Algorithms
       One of the new features in the ISCSTDFT model  is the capability to estimate deposition of particles
larger than 0.1 micrometers in diameter. The new deposition algorithm was selected as a result of a study
designed to identify dry deposition models suitable for routine use. Reviews were conducted of methods for
computing dry deposition velocity, plume depletion, and certain micrometeorological parameters from
routinely-available observations. Several observational data bases were identified from the scientific literature
and used in testing and evaluating several particle deposition velocity models. Recommendations for
 computing particle deposition velocity, plume depletion, and micrometeorological variables have been
 documented by the EPA7.
 Improved Area Source Algorithm
       Another feature of the ISCSTDFT model is an improved method for estimating ground-level
 concentrations from area sources that are characterized by low-level releases with little buoyancy due to either
 momentum or temperature.  The algorithm selection process included model performance evaluation studies,
 wind tunnel data collection and statistical comparisons8. As a result of this effort a numerically efficient area-
 source algorithm was selected9. This algorithm, which is based on a numerical integration of the Gaussian
 point source plume function over the area, provides improved treatment of source-receptor geometry and
 allows placement of receptors within the area source.  The user can define the area source as a rotated
 rectangle.  Another new feature incorporated in ISCSTDFT for this model  evaluation study was an option to
 specify an initial vertical dispersion parameter (cjzo) for an area source. This was done to study the differences
 in modeling roadways as volume sources, as traditional area sources with no initial vertical mixing (Ozo =0) and
 as area sources with some initial vertical mixing.
 Fit Retention Algorithm
        A third feature of the ISCSTDFT model is the ability to account for emissions from large open pits
 such as those at surface coal mines.  The new algorithm was developed by the EPA10 to properly model
 those emissions that remain inside an open surface coal mine (i.e. pit retention). The algorithm was based

                                                F-3

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 on a wind tunnel experiment to Study the dispersion of participate matter from surface coal mines. The
 wind tunnel experiments demonstated the following:
 1.  The mass distribution of the particles escaping the top surface of an open pit is different from what is
    actually emitted inside the pit.  The heavier particles tend to get trapped within the pit, thereby
    shifting the mass distribution of the emissions escaping the pit towards the smaller particle sizes.
 2.  The emissions from a pit show a tendency to be emitted primarily from an upwind sub-area of the pit
    opening. Figure 1 depicts this concept graphically. Emissions from a rectangular open pit of length L
    and width W will be released out of the pit from an effective sub area of length AL and width AW
    which are calculated as a function of the wind direction 6 and the dimensions of the pit. Note that the
    user can define the pit source as a rotated rectangle.
 3.  The high level of turbulence in the pit causes the emitted particles to be initially mixed prior to exiting
    the pit.  This was found to be particularly important for estimating impacts at receptors close to the
    pit.
        Perry et. al. ° defined a set of equations to account for these observations. The pit is essentially
 modeled as an area source (using the new area source algorithm), whose size is smaller than the actual
 size of the pit area. This "effective" pit is always on the upwind side of the actual pit and its size and
 shape is a function of the size of the pit, the depth of the pit, the wind speed and wind direction.  The
 emission rate for each particle size category is adjusted based on an "escape fraction". The escape
 fraction reflects the fraction of the particle emissions for a given size category escaping the pit and is a
 function of the particle settling velocity and the approach wind speed. A higher settling velocity results in
 a lower escape fraction and therefore a lower adjusted emission rate. An initial az proportional to the
 effective pit depth is determined. This is later factored into the standard ISCST2 az calculations.  The
 user can specify an open pit of rectangular shape of arbitrary orientation.

 CHARACTERIZING  EMISSIONS FROM AN OPEN PIT MINE
       As mentioned earlier, particulate emissions from a mine can be caused by many types of activities.
 One of the most challenging tasks of modeling a mining operation is the characterization of these
 emissions. How does one translate the emission information that is generally collected and reported by
 activity type (bulldozing, scraping, shoveling etc.) and by vehicle travel on roads into inputs that can be
 input into ISCSTDFT?  How should the emissions be distributed if two or more sources overlap spatially
 (for example, vehicles traversing on part of a road which is inside the pit)? Moreover, the emissions
 might be reported by shifts and the start and end times of the shifts may vary from day to day.
       A  mine emissions pre-processor has been developed to translate all this information into inputs to
 ISCSTDFT. The program, called MINEMISS, reads inputs such as locations and dimensions of pits,
 roads and other area and volume source type activities (dumping and loading of trucks).  Files listing the
 emission rates by shift for the entire modeling period are also read for each activity, type (scraper, dragline
 etc.).  A file defining the shift tunes is also supplied along with inputs in an options file.
       MINEMISS performs two main tasks. First, it creates source input data in an ISC2 format for the
 various activities for which the information is provided. The user has the option to characterize roads as
 elongated area sources or as equally spaced volume sources.  Each road segment is divided into these
 areas  or volume sources with a unique name assigned to each source.  The dimensions, location and
 orientation of these sources are calculated automatically from the primitive information provided to the
program.  The area sources for roadways are restricted hi their dimensions to a 10:1 aspect ratio due to
the reported limitations of the area source algorithm beyond this  ratio. The number of area sources is
determined using the aspect ratio calculated for the segment.  If,  for example, the ratio exceeds 10:1, but
is less than 21:1, two area sources will be assigned to model this segment. Furthermore, MINEMISS
uses a unique grid methodology  for emission sources which move about covering different areas during
different time periods (such as the draglines and the scrapers).  A grid of numerous area sources is
created which covers the domain of these moving sources.  Each gridded  area source is then assigned an
appropriate emission rate for those hours when the sources are active in the particular grid cell.

                                              F-4

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       Second, after creating the sources, MINEMISS processes emission rates reported by shift and
allocates them to the appropriate pit, area or volume sources.  There is a large amount of book-keeping
involved in this process. For example, if a road segment happens to be inside a pit, the emissions from
that segment are added to the pit emissions instead of assigning them to the road area or volume sources.
Emissions may be output either by shift or averaged by shift over the entire modeling period.
       The program creates an ISC2-formatted source pathway output file containing all the sources.  It
also produces an hourly emissions file corresponding to the source file.  These outputs can then be
directly incorporated into an ISC runstream.
       For the Cordero model evaluation study, the two active pits were modeled as open pit sources lor
ISCSTDFT and as rectangular area sources for ISCST2. Roads were modeled as area and volume
sources as discussed above. Figure 2 shows the relative locations of the various sources and receptors
for this study. The emission rates were based on three different sets of emission factors. The first set
was based on the emission factors found in Section 8.24 of AP-42 for all sources. This is, currently, the
most commonly used method of estimating emissions from surface coal mines.  The other two sets were
enhancements to the Set 1 method.  Set 2 was based on a new equation for heavy vehicles, emission
factors contained in Section 8.24 for bulldozing, graders and scrapers and Section 11.2 factors for all
other sources.  This new equation for heavy vehicles was based on an emissions testing program at the
Cordero Mine" .  Set 3 was similar to Set 2 except that it comprised of hourly emission factors for heavy
and light vehicle traffic. These factors were derived from direct representative on-site emission
measurements. For set 2, an emission control factor was applied based on haul roads silt and soil
moisture content which reflects the effects of road watering.  For set 3, the adjustments to emission rates
were made for mitigation due to hourly rainfall or shift-resolved watering activity.

 OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS
        The process of characterizing mine emissions of the Cordero database uncovered several interesting
 observations. Most importantly, it was found that the TSP and PMio emissions from vehicle travel on the
 unpaved mine roads are much higher than from any other source at this surface coal mine (Figure 3).
 Depending on the emission set, the roads can account for as much as 75% of the emissions and the north pit
 for about 20%. Even though the emissions from the other sources are small, they are not insignificant because
 the ambient air monitors are located quite close to the sources. The emissions from the various sources differ
 by shift. In general it was observed that the mid-day shift had more emissions attributed to it than any other
 shift  Note that in the figures, shift 0 spans hours between midnight to 6 or 7 AM, shift 1  is the entire 10-12
 hour day shift and shift 3 spans the hours between 4 or 7 PM through midnight. Figure 4 shows that there are
 significant differences between emission rates calculated using the three different sets of emission factors for
 the roads. Figure 5 shows similar differences for the north pit. Note that all the emissions have been shown as
 annualized emissions in tons per year to give a better perspective on the relative magnitude of paniculate
 emissions from the mine. This was based on an assumption that the emissions during the study period are
 representative of emissions over the entire year.  It is important for the user to note that there was a significant
 difference in the number of sources required to model the roads as area sources versus roads as volume
 sources. For the Cordero study, 67 area sources were required to model all the roads. On the other hand, 510
 volume sources were needed to model the same as volume sources.
         Preliminary model comparison results show that the predicted concentrations from roads modeled as
 volume sources are quite similar to those from roads modeled as area sources with an initial vertical dispersion
  parameter. A test was performed to examine the sensitivity of the predicted concentrations to the width of a
  road segment. A150 meter long road segment was modeled as an area source using four different widths -15,
  30,45 and 60 meters.  A string of receptors were placed perpendicular to the road starting at the median of the
  road up to 200 meters from the median. A single stable hour of meteorology was modeled with the wind
  blowing toward the receptors. The emission rates for the various road widths were specified such that the total
  emission from the entire road segment was always 1.0 grams/second.  As seen in Figure 6, it was observed that
  the  predicted concentrations did not vary significantly for the receptors located beyond the periphery of the

                                                    F-5

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road.  For the receptors that are inside the road segment, the concentrations were higher for the narrower road
segments than the wider road segments due to a higher emission rate per unit area.
       The model results are currently being analyzed and compared with observed data following the model
evaluation protocol4. A model evaluation report will be prepared upon completion of the project documenting
the results of the study.                                  :•   •

DISCLAIMER
This paper has been reviewed in accordance with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's peer and
administrative review policies and approved for presentation and publicatioa Mention of trade names or
commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

REFERENCES
1.  Environmental Protection Agency, 1992: User's Guide for the Industrial Source Complex (ISC2)
   Dispersion Models, Volume 1,2, and 3.  EPA-450/R-92-008a-c. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
   Research Triangle Park, NC [NTIS PB92-232461, PB92-232453, and PB92-232479, respectively].
2.  Environmental Protection Agency, 1985/1986/1988/1990/1991: Compilation of Pollution Emission
   Factors, AP-42, 4th Edition.  Supplement A, October 1986. Supplements, September 1988. Supplement
   C, September 1990. Supplement D, September 1991. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research
   Triangle Park, NC.
3.  Environmental Protection Agency, 1994: Modeling Fugitive Dust Impacts from Surface Coal Mining
   Operations-Phase I. EPA-454/R-94-024. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
   Park, NC [NTIS PB95-104980].
   Environmental Protection Agency, 1995: Modeling Fugitive Dust Impacts from Surface Coal Mining
   Operations-Phase II, Model Evaluation Protocol. EPA-454/R-94-025. U. S. Environmental Protection
   Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC [NTIS PB95-146510].
   Environmental Protection Agency, 1993:  User's Guide for the Model Evaluation Methodology (MEM)
   System for Comparing Model Performance, Version 1.0 (Draft). U. S. Environmental Protection Agency,
   Research Triangle Park, NC.
   Environmental Protection Agency, 1992:  Protocol for Determining the Best Performing Model  EPA-
   454/R-92-025. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC [NTIS PB93-
   226082].
   Environmental Protection Agency, 1994:  Development and Testing of a Dry Deposition Algorithm
   (Revised). EPA-454/R-94-015. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC
   [NTIS PB94-183100].
   Touma, IS., J.S. Irwin, J.A. Tikvart and C.T. Coulter,  1995: A Review of Procedures for Updating Air
   Quality Modeling Techniques for Regulatory Programs. Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol 34 No 3
   pp.731-737.
   Environmental Protection Agency, 1995:  User's Guide for the Industrial Source Complex (ISC2)
   Dispersion Models, Volume 2: Revised. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park,
   NC.
10. Environmental Protection Agency, 1994:  Recommendations on the use of ISC2A for Surface Mining
   (Draft).  U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.
11. Muleski, G.E., G. Garman, and C. Cowherd, Jr., 1994: Surface Coal Mine Emission Factor Study. Draft
   Final Test Report, EPA Contract No. 68-DO-0123, Work Assignment 37 and 55, U.S. Environmental
   Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
                                              F-6

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                      r—
                               Wind direction
                         W
Figure 1: Graphical representation of an open pit source
                              SCHEMATIC OF THE CORDERO
                             MODEL EVALUATION STUDY AREA
           4000 —i
        1
        c
        1
        o
        O
        •a
        I
        Q
        •3
        'O
        o
              0 —
         E2
         •§ -4000
            -8000
                                                     MRI-6
                                              MRI-5
                                       HV-1
                                                                MRI-4
                                                               MRI-3
HV-2/2A
                                                                            O
                                                                            D
              Legend

            Pitt
            PKti>Ara>Soure*>

            Road< a« Volume Source!

            Road< » ATM Sourcn
            ScnptrAdnMy

            Monitor Locadont
                                                             HV-3
                                                                        T
                  -8000
                                      -4000                  0
                            Easting (meters) in Model Domain Coordinates
Figure 2: Sources and receptors for the Cordero model evaluation study
                                                                                   4000
                                                    F-7

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               I
               111
                                                                     SHIFT 2
                                                                 SHIFT o
                       I   I   1   1   i    i   I   I
                                     I   3    3   I   5
                                     Mine Activity
i
Figure 3:  Distribution of emission rates by source type at the Cordero mine
                                       ROADWAY EMISSIONS
                          SET-1
              SET-2


          Emission Factor
Figure 4:  Variation in the roadway emissions by shift for three different sets of emission factors.
                                                  F-8

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                                     NORTH PIT EMISSIONS
                                                                   w
                         SET-1       SET-2       SET-3
                                Bnlssion Factor
Figure 5: Variation in the north pit emissions by shift for three different sets of emission factors.
     400
                                                                                   Legend Title
                                                                               ' Q   RoadWdth = 15m
                                                                               —0— Road Width = 30m
                                                                                    RoadV\Mth = 45m
                                                                                    Road WWth = 60m
            1                       10                      100
                      Distance from the Center of the Road (m)
 Figure 6: Variation in modeled downwind concentrations for different road widths
                                                F-9

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                                   APPENDIX G
        GUIDE TO THE EMISSIONS AND MODELING DATA BASE
       This appendix is intended to serve as a guide to the data base provided for the surface coal
mine emissions inventory, dispersion modeling, and model evaluation results. The data base
contains all of the data needed to duplicate the analysis, including the inputs to the mine emissions
preprocessor program (MTNEMISS), the inputs to the dispersion models (ISCST3 and ISCST2),
and the inputs to the statistical model evaluation software (EPAMEM and OVERMEN!). Figure
G-l provides  a flow chart showing the inputs and outputs for the three stages of the analysis: 1)
emissions preprocessing; 2) dispersion modeling; and 3) statistical evaluation. The inputs to
MINEMISS include the physical source locations and emissions data prepared by MRI for each of
the sets of emission factors and the various source categories.  The MINEMISS program
generates the  source parameters and hourly emissions file for input to the dispersion model.  The
MINEMISS program also generates the source location coordinates for the roadway sources
based on whether volume or area sources are being used. The input files for the ISC models
provided with the data base already include the source parameter data generated by MINEMISS.
These input files, together with the meteorological data and the MINEMISS-generated hourly
emissions files, are sufficient to run the dispersion models.  The dispersion models produce
POSTFELE outputs of predicted concentrations that are used as input to the model evaluation
software (EPAMEM), along with the observed concentration data and the EPAMEM input
options file. The daily average meteorology file (CORDERO. AVG) is needed for the diagnostic
evaluation component of EPAMEM to work properly, even though the diagnostic evaluation
component is  given a weight of zero in this analysis.  A separate program called OVERMEM (not
shown in Figure G-l) is used to perform the analysis of model overprediction. The OVERMEM
program uses  the basic inputs as the EPAMEM program.

       All of the data indentified on this flow chart are contained in compressed files on two 3.5"
diskettes, except for the hourly emission files (*.EMI) produced by MINEMISS. The  hourly
emission files  are not included due to their size, however, they can be easily generated  from the
data provided. When uncompressed, the sixteen hourly emission files (one for each model and
pollutant combination) would occupy almost 250 Mb of disk storage. The contents of each of the
files is described below.
                                         G-l

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 Source
Emission
 Files
    Shift
 Definitions
(SHIFTS.DBF)
    Source
  Locations
(SOURCES.LOG)
                                                                       Road
                                                                    Locations
                                                                   (ROADS.LOC)
  MINEMISS
Input Files
 (*.MIN)
                                           MINEMISS
                                           Emissions
                                         Preprocessor
                                            Program
                     Meteorology
                        File
                    (CORDERO.MET)
                          Hourly
                         Emission
                          Files
                        (*.EMI)
                        ISC  Model
                       Input Files
                        (*.IHP)
                                         ISCST3/ISCST2
                                          Dispersion
                                             Model
     Observed
^Concentrations
    C.OBS)
                     Daily  Average
                     Meteorology
                    (CORDERO.AVG)
                         ISC Model
                         POSTFILE
                         Outputs
                         (*.PST)
                       EPAMEM Input
                          Files
                         (*.INP)
                                             EPAMEM
                                           Statistical
                                           Evaluation
                                            Software
                                               I
                                              EPAMEM
                                           Statistical
                                           Evaluation
                                            Results
                                            (*.OUT)
    Figure G-l. Flow Chart of the Emissions Preprocessing, Modeling and Evaluation Analysis
                                                  G-2

-------
Disk#l:
MINEMISS.ZIP-
Code and EXE files fop the MINEHISS Emissions Preprocessor
 Length   Name          Description

 412970   MINEMISS.EXE  LAHEY EXE for the Emissions Preprocessor
 341343   MINEAREA.EXE  LAHEY EXE for the ISCST2 Version of the Emissions Preprocessor
  40471   EMIAREA.FOR   FORTRAN Code for the Emissions Preprocessor
  36869   EHIPROC.FOR   Modified Version of  EMIAREA.FOR for ISCST2 Output
  69260   MINEMISS.FOR  FORTRAN Code for the Emissions Preprocessor
  62929   SETUP.FOR     FORTRAN Code for the Emissions Preprocessor
  11080   HINEHISS.INC  FORTRAN Code for the Emissions Preprocessor
 974922
EMIS1NP.ZIP- Input Files
Length
5016
5016
5016
5016
1952
2352
2352
2297
2207
90312
5016
2195
2299
2299
2586
2586
2586
2586
2586
2586
5016
5016
5016
5016
2044
2352
2352
2297
2207
90314
5016
2195
2483
2299
2586
2586
2586
2586
2586
2586
Name
DCOAL-N.EH1
DCOAL-S.EH1
DOVER-N.EM1
DOVER-S.EM1
DRAGLINE. EM1
LCOAL-N.EM1
LCOAL-S.EM1
LOVER-N.EM1
LOVER-S.EH1
ROADS. EM1
SCRAPER. EH1
UCOAL.EH1
UOVER-N.EM1
UOVER-S.EH1
WCOAL-N.EM1
WCOAL-S.EM1
ULOVER-N.EM1
WLOVER-S.EM1
WUOVER-N.EM1
WUOVER-S.EM1
DCOAL-N.EM2
DCOAL-S.EM2
DOVER-N.EH2
DOVER -S.EH2
DRAGLINE.EH2
LCOAL-N.EM2
LCOAL-S.EM2
LOVER-N.EM2
LOVER -S.EM2
ROADS. EM2
SCRAPER. EH2
UCOAL.EM2
UOVER-N.EH2
UOVER-S.EM2
WCOAL-N.EH2
WCOAL-S.EM2
WLOVER-N.EM2
WLOVER-S.EM2
UUOVER-N.EM2
WUOVER-S.EH2
for MINEMISS, the Emissions Preprocessor
Description
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
. SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
SET
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
Emissions
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
Coal Bulldozing/Northpit
Coal Bulldozing/Southpit
Overburden Bulldozing/Northpit
Overburden Bulldozing/Southpit
Dragline Activity
Coal Loading/Northpit
Coal Loading/Southpit
Overburden Loading/Northpit
Overburden Loading/Southpit
Vehicle Travel Over Roads
Scraper Activity
Coal Unloading
Overburden Unloading/Northpit
Overburden Unoading/Southpit
Wind Erosionacoal Loading/Northpit
Wind Erosionacoal Loading/Southpit
Wind ErosionaOverburden Loading/Northpit
Wind ErosionSlOverburden Loading/Southpit
Wind ErosionSOverburden Unloading/Northpit
Wind Erosion30verburden Unloading/Southpit
Coal Bulldozing/Northpit
Coal Bulldozing/Southpit
Overburden Bulldozing/Northpit
Overburden Bulldozing/Southpit
Dragline Activity
Coal Loading/Northpit
Coal Loading/Southpit
Overburden Loading/Northpit
Overburden Loading/Southpit
Vehicle Travel Over Roads
Scraper Activity
Coal Unloading
Overburden Unloading/Northpit
Overburden Unoading/Southpit
Wind Erosionacoal Loading/Northpit
Wind Erosionacoal Loading/Southpit
Wind ErosionaOverburden Loading/Northpit
Wind ErosionaOverburden Loading/Southpit
Wind ErosionaOverburden Unloading/Northpit
Wind ErosionaOverburden Unloading/Southpit
                                                   G-3

-------
5016
5016
5016
5016
2044
2352
2352
2297
2207
90312
5016
2195
2483
2299
2586
2586
2586
2586
2586
2586
1620
3266
7388
1223
1220
1171
1167
1168
1167
1163
1164
1223
1220
1171
1167
1168
1167
1163
1164
DCOAL-N.EM3
DCOAL-S.EM3
DOVER-N.EH3
DOVER- S.EH3
DRAGLINE.EH3
LCOAL-N.EH3
LCOAL-S.EH3
LOVER-N.EH3
LOVER-S.EM3
ROADS. EH3
SCRAPER. EH3
UCOAL.EM3
UOVER-N.EM3
UOVER-S.EH3
WCOAL-N.EH3
WCOAL-S.EH3
WLOVER-N.EM3
WLOVER-S.EH3
WUOVER-N.EH3
UUOVER-S.EM3
SHIFTS.DEF
ROADS. LOC
SOURCES. LOC
PSET1PV2.HIN
PSET3SV2.MIN
PSET2PV.HIN
PSET2SV.MIN
PSET3SV.HIN
PSET2PA.HIN
PSET2SA.MIN
PSET3SA.HIN
TSET1PV2.HIN
TSET3SV2.H1N
TSET2PV.MIN
TSET2SV.MIN
TSET3SV.MIN
TSET2PA.HIN
TSET2SA.MIN
TSET3SA.MIN
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
SET 3 Emissions
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
from
Definition of Shift
Locat i on/Coordi nates
Locat i on/Coordi nates
MINEMISS Input
MINEHISS Input
HINEMISS Input
HINEHISS Input
HINEMISS Input
MINEHISS Input
HINEMISS Input
HINEHISS Input
HINEHISS Input
MINEHISS Input
HINEMISS Input
MINEMISS Input
HINEMISS Input
MINEMISS Input
MINEMISS Input
MINEHISS Input
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
Coal Bulldozing/Northpit
Coal Bulldozing/Southpit
Overburden Bui Idozi ng/Northpi t
Overburden Bulldozing/Southpit
Dragline Activity
Coal Loading/Northpit
Coal Loading/Southpit
Overburden Loading/Northpit
Overburden Loading/Southpit
Vehicle Travel Over Roads
Scraper Activity
Coal Unloading
Overburden Unloading/Northpit
Overburden Unoading/Southpit
Wind Erosionacoal Loading/Northpit
Wind ErosiorflCoal Loading/Southpit
Wind Erosionaoverburden Loading/Northpit
Wind Erosionaoverburden Loading/Southpit
Wind Erosionaoverburden Unloading/Northpit
Wind Erosionaoverburden Unloading/Southpit
Start and End Times
of Road Segments
of Area/Volume Sources
for HODEL-1
for MODEL-2
for HODEL-3
for MODEL-4
for HODEL-5
for MODEL-6
for MODEL-7
for MODEL-8
for HODEL-1
for MODEL-2
for MODEL-3
for MODEL-4
for MODEL-5
for MODEL-6
for MODEL-7
for HODEL-8



- PH10
* See NOTES Below






- TSP
* See NOTES Below



 479810

                  ISCST3 FORTRAN  Code
ISCST3SR.ZIP-
 Length  Name           Description

    625  F77LISCS.BAT   Batch File for Compiling with  LAHEY
  93249  CALC1.FOR      ISCST3 Routine
  18584  CALC2.FOR      1SCST3 Routine
  14791  CALC3.FOR      ISCST3 Routine
  24802  CALC4.FOR      ISCST3 Routine
  55014  COSET.FOR      ISCST3 Routine
  54310  DEPFLUX.FOR    ISCST3 Routine
  56794  INPSUM.FOR     ISCST3 Routine
  58876  ISCST3.FOR     ISCST3 Routine
  45477  HESET.FOR      ISCST3 Routine
  33909  METEXT.FOR     ISCST3 Routine
  65310  OUSET.FOR      ISCST3 Routine
  69066  OUTPUT.FOR     ISCST3 Routine
   9025  PCCODE.FOR     ISCST3 Routine
  46538  PITAREA.FOR    ISCST3 Routine
  14573  PRISE.FOR      ISCST3 Routine
  67008  RESET.FOR      ISCST3 Routine
  32926  SETUP.FOR      ISCST3 Routine
  26966  SIGHAS.FOR     ISCST3 Routine
  101448  SOSET.FOR      ISCST3 Routine
                                                    G-4

-------
  20819
   5098
  20934
    439
   2194
    166

 938941
TGSET.FOR
DEPVAR.INC
MAIN1.INC
MAINZ.INC
HAIN3.INC
F77LISCS.LRF
ISCST3 Routine
ISCST3 Routine
ISCST3 Routine
ISCST3 Routine
ISCST3 Routine
ISCST3 Link Response  File
ISCINPUT.ZIP-     ISCST2/ISCST3 Input Files

 Length   Name
55490
74692
74710
79053
79048
79048
24417
24412
24412
7491 1
74929
79133
79128
79128
24497
24492
24492
CORDERO.
MET
PSET1PV2.INP
PSET3SV2
PSET2PV.
PSET2SV.
PSET3SV.
PSET2PA.
PSET2SA.
PSET3SA.
TSET1PV2
TSET3SV2
TSET2PV.
TSET2SV.
TSET3SV.
TSET2PA.
TSET2SA.
TSET3SA.
.INP
1NP
INP
INP
INP
INP
INP
.INP
.INP
INP
INP
INP
INP
INP
INP
Cordero Hourly Meteorology (A!
ISCST2
ISCST2
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST2
ISCST2
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
Input
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
MODEL- 1
MODEL-2
HODEL-3
MODEL-4
MODEL -5
MODEL-6
MODEL-7
MODEL-8
MODEL -1
MODEL-2
MODEL-3
MODEL-4
MODEL-5
MODEL-6
MODEL-7
MODEL-8
 975992
              17
                                                         PM10
                                                         * See NOTES Below
                                                         TSP
                                                         * See NOTES Below

ISCOUTPT.ZIP-      ISCST2/ISCST3 Output  Files

 Length   Name
653991
654237
756950
756950
756950
336264
336264
336264
719659
719823
836414
836414
836414
357252
357252
357252
24300
24300
24300
24300
24300
24300
24300
24300
PSET1PV2.0UT
PSET3SV2.0UT
PSET2PV.OUT •
PSET2SV.OUT
PSET3SV.OUT
PSET2PA.OUT
PSET2SA.OUT
PSET3SA.OUT
TSET1PV2.0UT
TSET3SV2.0UT
TSET2PV.OUT
TSET2SV.OUT
TSET3SV.OUT
TSET2PA.OUT
TSET2SA.OUT
TSET3SA.OUT
PSET1PV2.PST
PSET3SV2.PST
PSET2PV.PST
PSET2SV.PST
PSET3SV.PST
PSET2PA.PST
PSET2SA.PST
PSET3SA.PST
ISCST2 Output File for MODEL-1
ISCST2 Output File for MODEL-2
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-2
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-4
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-5
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-d
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-7
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-8
ISCST2 Output File for MODEL-1
ISCST2 Output File for MODEL-2
I SCST3 Output File for MODEL-3
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-4
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-5
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-6
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-7
ISCST3 Output File for MODEL-S
ISCST2 POST File for MODEL-1
ISCST2 POST File for MODEL-2
ISCST3 POST File for MODEL-3
ISCST3 POST File for MODEL-4
ISCST3 POST File for MODEL-5
ISCST3 POST File for MODEL-6
ISCST3 POST File for MODEL-7
ISCST3 POST File for MODEL-8
                                                          PM10
                                                          * See NOTES Below
                                                          TSP
                                                          * See NOTES Below
                                                      - PM-10
                                                        * See NOTES Below
                                                   G-5

-------
24300
24300
24300
24300
24300
24300
24300
24300
TSET1PV2
TSET3SV2
.PST
.PST
TSET2PV.PST
TSET2SV.
' TSET3SV.
TSET2PA.
TSET2SA.
TSET3SA.
PST
PST
PST
PST
PST
ISCST2
ISCST2
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
ISCST3
POST
POST
POST
POST
POST
POST
POST
POST
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
File
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
for
MODEL- 1
MODEL-2
HODEL-3
MODEL -4
MODEL-5
MOOEL-6
MODEL-7
MODEL-8
                                                      - TSP
                                                        * See NOTES Below
9997150
               32
* NOTES:

HOOEL-1 Through MODEL-8 are in the Same Order as the models listed in Table 8  (p 32)

                                from Surface Coal Mining Operations - Phase II
  (Model Evaluation Protocol)"

 Following  is the file naming convention for the various models:
 Character  1
             :  P -  PM10
               T -  TSP
 Characters 2-5:  SET1  -  Emission  Set  1
                 SETH  -  Emission  Set  2
                 SET3  -  Emission  Set  3

 Character 6   :  P - 30-day Period Average
                 S - Shift Average

 Character 7   :  V - Roads as Volume  Sources
                 A - Roads as Area Sources

 (Character 8) :  (null) - ISCST3
                 2 -       ISCST2
 Disk #2:


 ====s============================================

 EPAHEM.ZIP-        Code and EXE files for EPAHEM
 Length   Name

2474182   EPAMEM.EXE
 219343   EPAMEM.FOR
   9982   MAIN1.INC
    439   MAINZ.INC
                         Description

                         LAHEY EXE for EPAMEM
                         FORTRAN code for EPAMEM
                         FORTRAN code for EPAMEM
                         FORTRAN code for EPAMEM
  2703946
  OVERMEM.ZIP -     Code and EXE files for Overprediction Version of EPAMEM
   Length   Name
                         Description
  2907670   OVERMEM.EXE  LAHEY EXE for the "Overprediction"  version of
   221674   OVERMEN.FOR  FORTRAN code for the "Overprediction  vers on of EPAMEM
     9982   HAIN1.INC    FORTRAN code for the "Overprediction  version of EPAMEM
      439   MAIN2.INC    FORTRAN code for the "Overprediction"  version of EPAMEM

  3139765        4
                                                      G-6

-------
MEMFILES.ZIP-
 Length   Name
        EPAHEH / OVERMEM Inputs and Outputs
   2550
   3270
   3270
   4030
   4030
   4027
   4027
  31891
  36127
  31891
  36127
 355640
CORDERO.AVG
24H-PM10.0BS
24H-TSP.OBS
PMSTAT.INP
PMOVER.INP
TSPSTAT.INP
TSPOVER.INP
PMSTAT.OUT
PHOVER.OUT
TSPSTAT.OUT
TSPOVER.OUT
     19
Description

Daily Average Meteorology
24-Hr Average Monitored Concentrations / PM-10
24-Hr Average Monitored Concentrations / TSP
EPAMEM Input File for PM-10 Best-Model Analysis
OVERMEM Input File for PM-10 Overprediction Analysis
EPAMEM Input File for TSP Best-Model Analysis
OVERMEN Input File for TSP Overprediction Analysis
EPAMEM Output File for PM-10 Best-Model Analysis
OVERMEM Output File for PM-10 Overprediction Analysis
EPAMEM Output File for TSP Best-Model Analysis
OVERMEM Output File for TSP Overprediction Analysis
APPNDXC.ZIP-     Modeled and Observed Concentrations (from Appendix  C)

 Length   Name          Description

  96820   APPNDXC.TXT
  96820
              Modeled and Observed Concentrations in space delimited  text
              file, based on the tables in Appendix C
             1
                                                    G-7

-------

-------
                                     TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                    (Please read Instructions on reverse before completing.)
 1. REPORT NO.
    EPA-454/R-96-002
                          3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
 4 . TITLE AND SUBTITLE
   Modeling Fugitive  Dust Impacts  from Surface Coal
   Mining Operations-Phase III. Evaluating Model
   Performance
                                                              5. REPOBT DATE
                                                                 December 1995
                                                              6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
 7. AUTHOR(S)
                                                              8 . PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
                                                              10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
    Pacific  Environmental  Services, Inc.
    5001  S.  Miami Blvd.
    Research Triangle Park,  NC 27709
                          11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
                             EPA  Contract No.  68D30001
 12 . SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
    Office  of  Air Quality  Planning and Standards
    Emissions,  Monitoring  &  Analysis Division
    Research Triangle Park,  NC  27711
                                                              13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                             Final  Report
                          14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
    EPA Work Assignment Manager:
Jawad S.  Touma
 16. ABSTRACT
 This report -is  the third part  of a study under Section 234  of the amended Clean Air Act
 which requires  that EPA analyze the accuracy of the Industrial Source Complex (ISC)
 model and AP-42 Compilation .of Air Pollutant Emission Factors to determine the effect
 on air quality  of fugitive particulate emissions from surface coal mines.   The first
 report,  titled  "Modeling Fugitive Dust Impacts from Surface Coal Mining  Operations-
 Phase I", 454/R-94-024 described the field monitoring program to collect data on
 ambient air quality,  meteorology and source  activity at a surface coal mine in the
 Powder River Basin in Wyoming.   The second report titled "Modeling Fugitive Dust
 Impacts from Surface Coal Mining Operations-Phase II, Model Evaluation Protocol"  EPA-
 454/R-94-025 defined the procedures that were used to identify the best  performing
 model.   This third report presents the results of the performance evaluation of several
 models which include the recent improvements to the ISC model applicable to fugitive
 particulate emissions, and improvements to the emission factors used to  estimate
 emissions from  surface coal mine activity.
                                            AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                             b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
   Air Pollution
   Air Quality Dispersion Models
   Meteorology
   Surface Coal Mines
   Fugitive Dust
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT


   Release Unlimited
         19. SECURITY CLASS (Report]
         	Unclassified
21. NO..OF PAGES
156
                                             20. SECURITY CLASS IPage)
                                             	Unclassified
XPA Torn 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77)
                    PREVIOUS EDITION IS OBSOLETE

-------

-------