-------
Exhibit 33
Compliance Percentages
SWTR Scenario
W/ Alt. Disin.
5
No further treatment
Eliminate pre-chlor
Eliminate pre-chlor & add NH3
pre-chlor + NH3 + alum dose
pre-chlor + NH3 + alum + Oz
pre-chlor + NH3 + alum + Oz + GAG
60
70
12
18
0
0
0
THAA MCLs
50 40 30
64
15
17
4
0
0
56
16
22
5
1
0
48
12
22
14
3
1
(ug/D
20
37
8
8
23
7
17
10
19
3
1
22
5
50
Compliance Percentages
Enhanced SWTR Scenario
W/ Alt. Disin.
THAA MCLs (ug/1)
60 50 40 30 20 10
No further treatment
Eliminate pre-chlor
Eliminate pre-chlor & add NH3
pre-chlor + NH3 + alum dose
pre-chlor + NH3 + alum + Oz
pre-chlor + NH3 + alum + Oz + GAG
'70 62 56 47 35 17
11 16 16 12 10
17 18 16 12
0 1
0 0
0
0
10 18 18 15
10 16 15
1 17 50
-------
Exhibit 34
Compliance Percentages
SWTR Scenario
W/out Alt. Disin.
THAA MCLs (ug/1)
60 50 40 30 20 10
No further treatment
Eliminate pre-chlor
Eliminate pre-chlor & modify alum
Eliminate pre-chlor + alum + GAG
70 64 56 48 37 19
12 15 16 12 8
11 14 16 19 20 21
12 21 35 57
Compliance Percentages
Enhanced SWTR Scenario
W/out Alt. Disin.
No further treatment
Eliminate pre-chlor
Eliminate pre-chlor & modify alum
Eliminate pre-chlor + alum + GAG
60
70
11
12
7
THAA MCLs
50 40 30
62
16
15
7
56
16
15
13
47
12
21
20
(ug/1)
20
35
10
20
35
10
17
3
22
58
-------
Exhibit 35
Equivalence of "Maximum Net Benefit" and
"Minimum Total Social Cost" Objectives
$'s
Benefit: value of health
damages avoided
maximum net
benefits
cost of treatment & monitoring
Degree of
Treatment
$'s
total social cost
minimum total
social cost
cost of
treatment &
monitoring
cost of health
damages
incurred
Degree of
Treatment
Maximizing Health Damages Avoided
Per Dollar of Treatment Expenditure
Minimizing Health Damages Incurred
Per Dollar of Treatment Expenditure
-------
Draft: 13-May~92
Exhibit 36
MODEL OUTPUT (surface w/o softening): SWTR W/ ALTERNATIVE DISINFECTION
Treatment Code:
1 - not requiring further treatment modification
2 - eliminate pre-chlorination
3 - eliminate pre-chlor + add ammonia
4 _ pre—chlor + ammonia + alum dose
5 - pre-chlor + ammonia + alum + ozone
6 - pre-chlor + ammonia + alum + ozone + GAG
Population =
THAA
MCL
fl/l
..mi--' '
60
50
40
30
20
10
Annual
Treatment Cost *
($M)
2
12
21
71
383
922
103.000,000
•"
Cost of Cancer**
@ $8m/case
($M)
•=
358
338
304
259
177
91
(persons)
Cost of Giardia
@ $3,000/case
($M)
639
714
849
974
1,239
1,729
1,000
1,064
1,174
1,304
1,798
2,742
Capital costs are annualized at 10% interest rate over 20 years.
** MLE of cancer incidence from HAAs.
to
O
m
CO
O
O
1
0.0
60
50 40 30 20
ALTERNATE THAA MCLs (/ug/l)
-------
Exhibit 37
Draft: 13-May-92
MODEL OUTPUT (surface w/o softening): ENHANCED SWTR W/ ALTERNATIVE DISINFECTION
Treatment Code:
1 — not requiring further treatment modification
2 — eliminate pre—chlorination
3 — eliminate pre—chlor + add ammonia
4 - pre—chlor + ammonia + alum dose
5 — pre—chlor + ammonia + alum 4- ozone
6 — pre—chlor + ammonia + alum + ozone + GAC
Population =
103,000.000
(persons)
THAA Annual
MCL Treatment Cost *
fr/g/i) ($M)
60 7
50 16
40 38
30 120
20 422
10 963
Cost of Cancer**
@ $8m/case
($M)
369
348
313
258
178
91
Cost of Giardia Total
@ $3,000/case Costs
($M) ($M)
0.8 377
0.8 364
0.9 351
1 .0 379
1 .0 601
1 .0 1 ,055
* Capital costs are annualized at 1 0% interest rate over 20 years.
** MLE of cancer incidence from HAAs.
.O
1.4
— 1-3
Z 1.2
° 1.1
g 1-0
^ 0.9
P 0.8
w
0 0.7
% 0.6
3 0.5
2
2 0.4
**: 0.3
0.2
0.1
Total Cost
A
-
-
-
-
.x-
^~~ ~~~~~~-^
Cost of Giardia Cases ^^/
\^___
| o.O : ' ' —
60 50 40 30
ALTERNATE THAA MCLs flug/L)
X/^
/ /
/ /
/ /
S /-L.
•^"^ / ^\
/
^X Treatment Cost
/
Cost of Cancer Cases
' — — -^k
^-:a-~- •
20 10
-------
Exhibit 38
Draft: 13-May-92'
MODEL OUTPUT (surface w/o softening): SWTR W/O ALTERNATIVE DISINFECTION
Treatment Code:
1 — not requiring further treatment modification
2 — eliminate pre—chlorination
3 - eliminate pre-chlor + modify alum dose
4 __ pre-chlor + alum dose + GAG
Population =
103.000,000
(persons)
THAA
MCL
fog/0
60
50
40
30
20
10
Annual Treatment
Cost*
($M)
104
118
202
353
588
957
Cost of Cancer**
@ $8m/case
($M)
334
320
270
206
140
79
Cost of Giardia
@ $3,000/case
($M)
740
772
831
972
1,212
1,519
Total
Costs
($M)
1,177
• 1,210
1,303
1,531
1,940 1
2,555
* Capital costs are annualized at 10% interest rate over 20 years.
** MLE of cancer incidence from HAAs.
I
CD
<
z
3.5 —
3.0 r
2.5 r
2.0 r
I
1.5 r
1.0 r
0.5 r
0.0'
Total Cost
Cost of Giardia Cases
Cost of Cancer Cases
60
50 40 30
ALTERNATE THAA MCL (/ug/L)
20
10
-------
Draft: 13-May-92
Exhibit 39
MODEL OUTPUT (surface w/o softening): ENHANCED SWTR W/O ALTERNATIVE DISINFECTION
Treatment Code:
1.- not requiring further treatment modification
2 - eliminate pre—chlorination
3 — eliminate pre—chlor + modify alum dose
4 - pre-chlor + alum dose + GAG
Population —
103,000,000
(persons)
THAA
MCL
0/g/i)
60
50
40
30
20
10
Ann.Trt.*
Cost
($M)
118
118
218
336
588
974
Cost of Cancer**
@ $8m/case
($M)
337
320
271
211
142
77
Cost of Giardia
@ $3,000/case
($M)
0.8
0.8
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.0
Total
Costs
($M)
455
438
490)
548
731
1,052
* Capital costs are annualized at 10% interest rate over 20 years.
** MLE of cancer incidence from HAAs.
1.5
w
Q
CD
CO
O
O
Treatment Cost
Cost of Cancer Cases
40 30
ALTERNATE THAA MCLs (f/g/L)
-------
Exhibit 40
Draft: 10/12/92
Model Output (surface water systems w/o softening): SWTR w/ MODIFYING ALUM DOSE
Treatment Tier Code:
1 - not requiring further treatment modification
2 - eliminating prechlorination + modifying alum dose
Population •
703.000.000 (persons)
Number of Systems =
22Z
THAA
MCL
(uq/D
f,n
«;n
An
"\n
on
10
^««w^— =
S3=S3=S=
Treatment
Code
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
=£=^====S^
%o( Systems
Modifying
Alum Dose*
30
36
44
52
63
81
Cumulative
% of Systems
<- MCL*
93
93
88
79
65
43
=====
Annual
Treatment
Cost ($M) **
(1)
45
54
66
78
95
122
Cost ($M) of
Cancer***
@$8M/Case
(2)
326
303
275
254
234
215
Cost <$M> of
Giardiasis
@$3K/Case
(3)
796
853
917
1,086
1,237
1,261
Total
Social
Cost($M)
(l)+(2)+(3)
1,167
1,210
1,258
1,418
1,565
1,597
•Includes 20% over-design factor. .«,UAA
" Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) of cancer incidence associated with HAAs.
•" Capital costs are annualized at 10% interest rate over 20 years.
Total Social Cost at Alternate THAA MCLs
2,000 -I
•5? 1'800'
§ 1.600-
1 1XJOO-
H 1200^
£ 1.000-
6 800
§ 600-
1 4°°f
< 200
0
i
Jotal Social Cost '• ^
^£_ ^
-^—^—~~ — " — " *
I • v ^_____ •
•* " •^»-~rto<* of Giardiasis
^ Cost of Cancer Cases
j- Treatment Cost-^ _ -• — •
,0 50 40 30 20 10
Alternate THAA MCL (ug/D
c:\017\dbp\iotus\sensitiv\old\ALMHAA.XLS
-------
Exhibit 41
Draft: 10/12/92
Model Output (surface water systems w/o softening): Enhanced SWTR w/ MODIFYING ALUM DOSE
Treatment Tier Code:
1 - not requiring further treatment modification
2 - eliminating prechlorination + modifying alum dose
Population =
103.000.000 (persons)
Number of Systems =
222
THAA
MCL
(ug/l)
60
50
40
30
20
10
Treatment
Code
2
2
2
2
2
2
% of Systems
Modifying
Alum Dose*
30
38
44
53
65
83
Cumulative
% of Systems
<= MCL*
93
93
87
80
65
42
Annual
Treatment
Cost ($M) "
(1)
45
57
66
80
98
125
Cost <$M) of
Cancer ***
@$8M/Case
(2)
332
300
280
258
235
216
Cost ($M) of
Giardiasis
@$3K/Case
(3)
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
Total
Social
Cost ($M)
(l)-K2)+(3)
378
358
348
339
333
342
* includes 20% over-design factor.
" Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) of cancer incidence associated with HAAs.
**" Capital costs are annualized at 10% interest rate over 20 years.
Total Social Cost at Alternate THAA MCLs
Total Social Cost
Cost of Cancer Cases
Treatment Cost
40 30
Alternate THAA MCL (ug/l)
c:\017\dbp\lotus\sensitiv\old\EALMHAA.XLS
-------
-------
Appendix A
-------
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Appendix B
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1 Can car 1
MCL MCL Incidence
fTHAA.l ITTHU.l THAA.
Cancer Incidence (Maximum Likelihood Estimate)
TTHMs CF C2B B2C BF THAA. DCAA TRAA
Mean Concentrations of By-Products (Average Customer)2
TTHMs CF C2B B2C BF THAA. DHAA TO A A
1 Cumulative
MCL % of Sys.
[TTHMs) < MCL1
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