&
EPA-600/2-76-044b
March 1976
                     Environmental Protection Technology Series

             •s&^ffiM.
Volume II -  Monographs  and Worl
                                    Offtet of
                             Researeb
                                                    Nor* CaroiiM 27711

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                RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES

 Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental
 Protection Agency,  have been grouped  into  five series. These five broad
 categories were established to facilitate further development and application of
 environmental technology. Elimination of traditional Grouping was'consciously
 planned to foster technology transfer and a maximum interface in related fields
 The five series are:

     1.    Environmental Health Effects Research
     2.    Environmental Protection Technology
     3.    Ecological Research
     4.    Environmental Monitoring
     5.    Socioeconomic Environmental Studies
 roLJK     has been assi'9ned to the ENVIRONMENTAL  PROTECTION
TECHNOLOGY series. This series describes research performed to develop and
demonstrate instrumentation, equipment, and methodology to repair or prevent
environmental degradation from point and non-point sources of pollution This
work provides the new or improved technology required for the control and
treatment of pollution sources to meet environmental quality standards.


                    EPA REVIEW NOTICE


This report has been reviewed by  the U.S.  Environmental
Protection Agency,  and approved for publication.  Approval
does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the
views and policy of  the Agency, nor does mention of trade
names or commercial products constitute endorsement or
recommendation for use.
This document is available to the public through the National Technical informa-
tion Service, Springfield, Virginia 22161.

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                                     EPA-600/2-76-044b
                                     March 1976
             ENERGY SUPPLY, DEMAND/NEED,

                AND THE GAPS BETWEEN;

       VOLUME  II-MONOGRAPHS AND WORKING PAPERS
                           by

      J.  W.  Meyer,  W.  J.  Jones,  and M. M.  Kessler
Energy Laboratory,  Massachusetts Institute of Technology
            Cambridge, Massachusetts  02139

                          for


               The M.  W.  Kellogg Company
               1300 Three Greenway Plaza
                 Houston, Texas   77046
            Contract No. 68-02-1308, Task 27
                   ROAP No. 21ADE-010
               Program Element No. 1AB013
           EPA Project Officer: I. A. Jefcoat

       Industrial Environmental Research Laboratory
        Office of Energy, Minerals, and Industry
            Research Triangle Park, NC  27711
                      Prepared for

           U.S.  ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
           Office of Research and Development
                 Washington, DC  20460
                                             ... r;?o

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                 Ill
          TABLE OF CONTENTS
Monograph No.  1 -

Monograph No.  2 -

Monograph No.  3 -

Monograph No.  4 -

Monograph No.  5—

Monograph No.  6 -

Monograph No.  7 -


Monograph No.  8 -


Monograph No.   9 -

Monograph No.  10 -

Monograph No.  11 -


Working Paper No.


 Appendix Paper No.


 Working Paper No.

 Working Paper No.


 Appendix Paper No.
 Solar Energy

 Wind Energy

 Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

 Geothermal Energy

 Hydroelectric Power

 Oil Shale

 Solid Waste for the Generation
 of Electric Power

 Energy from Forests, Plantations
 and Other Biomass

- Hydrogen Fuel

• Gas  Turbines

- Fuel Cell  Generation of Electric
 Power

 12  - Conserving,  Finding,  and
      Directing  Energy Resources

  13 - Residential and Commercial
       Energy Utilization

 14  - Synthetic Fuels

 15  - "Saved" Fuel as an Energy
      Resource

  16 - Safety and Environmental Issues
       Related to the Liquid Metal Fast
       Breeder Reactor and its Principal
       Alternatives, Especially Coal
 Appendix  Paper No.  17 -  Solar Energy

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                               , ,                       Richard  H.  Baker
                               1                        December I,  1974
                                                        Amended  June,  1975
                                                        William  J.  Jones
                            Monograph No.  1
                         MIT Energy Laboratory
                              SOLAR ENERGY
PRECIS
     New Hampshire has an average annual solar power flux of 135 watts/
M2 with a daily mean of 60 watts/M2 in December and 245 watts/M  in July.
Day to day variations between peak and average are 1.5 to 1 in the winter
and 2 to 1 in the summer.  The dispersed nature and variability of this
energy are serious challenges to its ability to provide large amounts of
reliable electric power service.  Large collectors and sizeable stor-
age are essential.
     There are two methods for converting solar energy to electrical power.
Photovoltaic Conversion produces power directly from silicon or Cd sulphide
	in   :    	 * '•'"                                       O
solar cells.  Silicon panels currently cost $40,000/M  or about $300/watt.
Total photovoltaic conversion equipment, to produce 60 cycle 120 volt ac
in New Hampshire, would currently cost about $1200/watt of capacity.  Pro-
jections indicate that with today's technology this could be reduced to
about $10/watt in a few years and perhaps ultimately below $l/watt.
     Solar/Thermal/Electric conversion systems heat water or other two phase
fluids such as ammonia or Freon  to the gaseous state to drive turbine-
generators.  To  achieve high temperatures for thermal  efficiency, concen-
trators  for the  incident  solar radiation are necessary.  Estimates of  con-
centrators  in  the southwestern United States range  from $60/M   to $1800/M
 (in volume  production).   In New  Hampshire,  assuming the same construction
cost,  this  would mean a  cost between  $4/watt and  $12/watt.
     To  produce  1000  MWe (average), allowing for  steam turbine  efficiency
and  concentrator losses,  would require  a concentrator  area, allowing for
other  facilities, of  about 33 x  106 M2  (10,000 acres)  oriented  to  the  south
and  at 45°  to  the vertical and  a land area  of  about 200 x  10  M  (about
 50,000 acres  or  9 miles  x 9 miles).   Unsolved  technical  problems include
deterioration of collector reflective surfaces and  increasing  the  collector
 output temperature.   One limitation  is  that clear skies,  to insure parallel
 rays,  are necessary for  a concentration.  Present designs  are  projected  to
 operate at  an efficiency of  about 50% at  500 C.

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                                    1-2
       To solve the energy  storage  problem,  latent  heat  storage, using
  rocks,  salt,  etc.^bf  about  1000°C,  has been proposed  for short-term
  storage and  the  production of hydrogen fuel for long-term storage.
  Hydrogen production by high  pressure electrolysis at an energy effic-
  iency of SOS^to  94% appears  practical.  A  1000 MWe plant would reduce
  afeut 6x 10  kg  of hydrogen from 1.5 million gallons  of pure water per day.
  The hydrogen, stored unpressurized, would require about 7 x 104 M3 of
  storage.  The electrolysis/storage system is projected to cost $100/kg
  of hydrogen produced per day,or 60 million dollars.
      A cooling tower facility would be needed for the solar/thermal
  system because in New Hampshire a solar plant is too large (15 KM x
 15 KM) (9.3 miles x 9.3 miles)  to locate near a large body of water.
      A dry cooling tower facility to handle 1000 MWe has not been de-
 signed.   The cost of  a  wet cooling tower  is projected at $60,000/MWe.
 The size of a natural draft hyperbolic wet tower would be approximately
 125 meter (410 feet)  (base)  and  115M (375  feet)  (height).
      Solar  augmented  heating  and cooling of individual  buildings  appears
 practical and  desirable in New Hampshire.
      Flat plate collectors can produce  temperatures up  to 50°C above
 ambient  at an  estimated cost  of  $45/M2  in volume production.  Short-
 term  thermal storage  (- 1  day) using  heated water  or  rocks is practical.
An  optimized system is  about  200 gallons of water  per square meter of
collector area.  Total  space conditioning cost (installed) has been
projected at about $2.00/106 BTU of collected solar energy.
     Systems for space  conditioning using solar energy are compatible
with electric heating and can be used to reduce peak demand while in-
creasing the utilization of base load demand.

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                                 1-3
                         OUTLINE -  SOLAR  ENERGY

I.  Parameters of Solar Energy
     A. Solar Conditions
     B. Solar Conversion
     C. Solar Applications

II. Solar Energy for Electric Power Generation in New Hampshire
     A. New Hampshire Solar Flux
     B. System to Produce 1000 MWe
        1.  Solar-Voltaic
        2.  Solar-Thermal
        3.  Energy Storage
        . 4.  Cooling Tower
     C. Solar Augmented Space Heating

 III.Summary

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                                  1-4
                    MIT ENERGY LABORATORY WORKING PAPER

                                SOLAR ENERGY

  I.    PARAMETERS  OF SOLAR ENERGY
       A.   Solar Conditions
       Outside  the earth's atmosphere the sun is  a steady source of energy.
  The  solar constant, or energy  received,  is equivalent to 430 BTU/FT2 per
  hour, or  1360 watts per  square meter.   On  the surface of the earth the
  solar intensity  is diminished  by atmospheric absorption, becomes un-
  steady depending upon'climatic conditions, and varies greatly with sea-
  sonal changes and terrestrial  location.  Figure 1 shows the effect of
  latitude  on energy flux  on a horizontal surface in June and December,
  including both^clear days and average days together with the annual
 average value.
      Figure 1 shows that compared to the 1360 watts/M2 that is avail-
 able outside the atmosphere,  or the 100 watts/M2 on the earth's surface
 which is available when the sun is directly overhead on a  clear day,
 the average daily input on the ground is significantly less.   Also the
 latitude of a locality is considerably less important in determining
 its solar-energy  reception  than is the local  cloudiness.   By  tilting  a
 receiving  surface toward  the  equator to favor  the winter sun,  a large
 part  of  the seasonal variation  in  solar incidence can be eliminated.
 The effect of  collector tilt  at 40°  latitude is  indicated  in Figure 2.

      B.  Solar Conversion
      The sun represents an enormous  inexhaustible source of energy which
 can be harnessed.  However, as  shown by  Figure 1 and Figure 2, the solar
 energy at  the  surface of  the  earth is highly variable and extremely di-
 lute; its  average flux density  is only about five-hundreths of that of
 a modern steam boiler.   In most applications, solar energy must be con-
 centrated, converted to a more useful form, and then stored for use when
 the sun is not available.   The fuel  (solar energy) is free, but the
equipment associated with concentration, conversion, and storage can be
expensive.

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         1-5
         SOLAR  ENERGY
                ON A
       HORIZONTAL  SURFACE
    20      0     20

        LATITUDE
Fi£ure 1:  Solar-Flux Latitude

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                    1-6
4 <*
1?
Is
5g
VE DAILY TOTA
TO EARTH'S
RELAT
EXTERNAL
 .40
 -
s
                   EFFECT or COLLECTOR ORIENTATION
                          ON PERFORMANCE
                         AT 40" N  LATITUDE
                     ( A TMOSPHCKIC  TRA NSMlSSIQN <•- I)
                                 . - ll™»™™»<-*«— IT
                         EQUINOX
                  TIME  -   OF   -   YEAK
                                                      WINTER
                                                     SOiSTICE
Figure 2:   Effect of Collector Tilt
           Reference 1

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                                 1-7
                                                         2
     There are a variety of energy-conversion techniques;   solar radia-
tion may be converted to electricity by solar cells and may be utilized
in conventional heat engines (such as steam turbines).   Electricity can
also be generated indirectly from the sun in the form of winds or ocean
thermal gradients.3'4  Gaseous, liquid, and solid fuels can also be pro-
duced by direct solar radiation in a number of ways; photodecomposition
of water, photosynthetic growth of organic matter which can be converted
to fuels by destructive distillation, fermentation, by high pressure
chemical processing, or photochemical conversion processes.  These re-
newable fuels can in turn be used in conventional energy processing
plants to produce electrical energy.  The type of solar energy approp-
riate to fulfill a need is dependent upon a  complex set of  socio-economic
conditions, but  certain invariant parameters are discernable:
      (1)  The sun is a uniformly distributed source.
      (2)  Although  solar flux  is higher  in  equatorial  zone (±  23  ), it
           is  sufficient, up  to perhaps ± 45° latitude,  to  satisfy most
           applications  providing  sufficient storage can be implemented
           to  compensate for  varying climate conditions.
      (3)   The solar flux  is  so dilute  that  to  produce  temperatures  in
           a working fluid  greater  than about 85°C  above ambient re-
           quires concentration of  the  solar flux.
      (4)   Equipment for the collection of solar energy profits little
           by  economics of  scale.
      (5)   The day/night dependence and weather dependent variability of
           solar energy makes it necessary to include an energy storage
           facility in any (every)  solar power system.

      C.  Solar Applications
      There are three general ways that  solar energy can be applied to
 augment conventional power systems:
      Electric Power Generation - Directly  from the sun using thermal
      and/or photovoltaic  conversion techniques, or indirectly using
      wind  or ocean  thermal gradients.
      Production of  Synthetic  Fuels - By photosynthesis of  organic

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                                   1-8
       materials  or  electrolysis  of  water  to  produce  hydrogen.
       Production of Thermal  Energy  for  Space Heating


  11•   SOLAR ENERGY  FOR ELECTRIC  POWER GENERATION IN  NEW HAMPSHIRE
       A.  New Hampshire Solar Input
       The average solar flux falling on a horizonal  surface in various
  locations in the U.S. are shown in Figure 3.6    The average solar
  flux  can be used only when long-term storage is available (* 6 months)
  For systems with short-term storage (* 2 weeks), the winter values
  shown in Figure 4 must be used.  Higher densities can be obtained by
 "orientation of the solar collectors.  Table. I shows estimates of the
  annual and winter average flux  intensities that would be available on
  oriented collectors in New Hampshire.

                                 TABLE  I
 Collector Orientation
 Fixed-Horizontal
 Fixed-Facing  South at 45C
  Above Horizontal
 One-Axis  Steerable in
  Elevation
 Two-Axis  Steerable
*  Watts/M2 x 3.41 - BTU/M2 -hr
Estimate of Average Solar Energy
Flux Density (Watts per Sq.
Meter)* BTU/M2 -hr
Annual Average    December Average
  (145)  500
  (160)  545

  (195)  665

  (270)  925
 (55)
(130)
185
450
(140)    475
                                                           (145)   500
     B.  System to Produce 1000 MWe
     Several studies have produced conceptual drawings that depict the
large scale use of solar cells (Figure 5 and Figure 6) or solar thermal
concentrators (Figure 7) to generate electrical energy from the sun.   A
particularly imaginative proposal is one that generates power in space,

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                      1-9
         ,150 W/m'
245 W/m
      225 W/m
   Fig.  3:   Yearly Average of  Solar Energy
            Incidence  in Watts per Square Meter
            (Horizontal surface)
                   Reference 6

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                     1-10
150

Fig. 4:
December Average of Solar Energy
Incidence in Watts per -Square Meter
(Horizonal surface^
               Reference  6

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                  1-11
            SOLAR CELL PARK
Figure 5:  Power Generation with Solar Cells
                  1000 mWe

                (Reference 14)

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Figure 6:   Solar Farm A

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                         1-13
CROSS SECTION DIAGRAM OF A TYPICAL COLLECTOR PANEL USING
A CYLINDRICAL REAR-SURFACED MIRROR AS THE CONCENTRATOR
        SELECTIVE
        COATED
        STEEL
        PIPE
GLASS
VACUUM
PIPE
(SILVERED)
                                                SUNLIGHT
                                        MIRROR
                                        CONCENTRATOR
                                        (CYLINDRICAL)
    Figure 7:  Typical One-Axis High-Temperature Collector
                     Reference 15

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                                    1-14
                        Figure 8:   (Reference 7)

SOLAR COLLECTOR IN STATIONARY ORBIT has been proposed by Arthur D  Little
Inc.  Located 22,300 miles above the Equator, the station would remain   '
fixed with respect to a receiving station on the ground.  A five-by-five
mile panel would intercept about 8.5 x 10? kilowatts of .radiant soLr power,
this into I ?Pertn7nLf 3n eff*ciency °f "bout 18 percent would convert
this into 1.5 x 10' kilowatts of electric power, which would be converted
into microwave radiation and beamed to the earth.  There it would be re-
converted into 107 net kilowatts of electric power, or enough, for example,
for New York City.  The receiving antenna would cover about six times the
area needed for a coal-burning power plant of the same capacity and about
20 times the area needed for a nuclear plant.

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                                 1-15
where solar energy can be obtained continually, and then sends the
power to earth via microwaves (Figure 8).   This would eliminate the
need for large capacity energy storage.7    Notwithstanding the long
term promise of such proposals, at the present the problems are
formidable.

1.   Solar Photovoltaic Conversion
     New Hampshire receives solar energy at an annual rate of about
155 watts/M2.  For a surface tilted south by 45° this value increases
to about 160 watts/M2. The best individual solar cells have a conversion
efficiency of 12% to 15% at a room temperature of  20°C.  In a panel, how-
ever, the light transmission of protective cover plates decrease with
time due to UV-darking and dirt,  the ambient temperature is higher,
cell matching losses occur,, etc., and the conversion efficiency will
drop perhaps to about  8.5% or  less.  A  "solar  farm" with 8.5% efficiency panels
facing  45° south would produce about 13.5 watts/M  .  Accordingly,  to
produce 1000 MWe would require about 75 x 106M2  (8.6 KM x  8.6 KM)  of
                                                                         i
solar cells.
     At the present  time  (1974) solar cells for  space applications cost
about $40,000/M2  ($300/watt x  135 watts/M2).   There  is no  real consensus
as  to what could be  achieved  if produced on a  large  scale  for terrestrial
applications but $5/watt with  silicon appears  to be  possible within a
few years.1'8'9'10   With  an  appreciable R and  D  effort, using poly-
crystalline materials,  such  as copper sulfide  and  cadmium  sulfide, per-
haps $1 to $1.50 per watt might be obtained  in a few years, with  an
ultimate  cost  as  low as  40c  to 60c per  watt.     Small  quantities  of
 thin film Cu_-CdS  solar  cells  have been produced in  pilot  lines with
                               11
 efficiencies of  4  to 6 percent.    Their  fabrication processes  appear
 amenable to  mass  production  methods  but so  far yields  have been low and
                   12
 the cells degrade.
      Projected cost estimates for panel structure  designed to withstand
 the rigors of  New England environment  '    and to  protect  solar cells
 range from $20 to $40 per square meter.  Using a cost  of  $30/M  for the
 panel structure and a 300 to 1 reduction from the present  cost of solar
 cells  (i.e.  $40,000/M2 to $133/M2)  we obtain a projected-lower-cost

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                                   1-16
  estimate of about $163/M2 ($30/M2 + 133/M2)  photovoltaic panels.   With
  New Hampshire's annual solar input this is $12,000/KW.

  2>  Solar/Thermal/Electric Conversion Systems
       In order to achieve high temperatures high enough  to  produce
  electricity by conventional  methods, collectors that  concentrate the
  solar flux  are required.   These  collectors are  relatively  expensive
  because they must have low emissivity and  low conduction losses.
       One thermal conversion  proposal9'15 includes the use  of one-axis
  steerable cylindrical  parabolas.   The collectors, as  shown in Figures
  8 and  9,  would  be east-west  oriented and cover  about  50% of the land
  area.   Vacuum insulated heat  collection pipes would be used at the
  focal  points  of  the collectors.  The energy would be  stored as thermal
  energy in molten  salt.  Conventional  steam turbine generators would be
  used to produce electricity.   Typical parameters of a 1000 MW contin-
  uous output plant have been estimated as follows:9'15
      Area of plant                       _       40 km2
      Area of collectors                  _       £2 km2
      Outlet temperature of collectors    -       500° -  600°
      Collection efficiency               _       ~  g0%
      Thermal plant efficiency            _       ~  40%
      Overall efficiency                  _        ~  25%
      The allowable construction budget for  such  a farm to produce power
 at  a cost of 5.3 mills/kwh at a 25% conversion efficiency has been  es-
 timated in 1971 by Meinel9 at $60/square meter for a  site in the south-
 west having  330 clear days a  year.   Hottel  and Howard2 believe Meinel
 estimates  assume overly optimistic  optical  and lifetime performance for
 selective  coating  and do not  adequately account  for degradation in
 optical transmittance in glass  piping due to weathering and ignores
 pumping power  required  to  circulate  heat transfer fluids; they find an
 overall conversion efficiency of about 10% more  reasonable.
     Cost  of utilizing  solar energy will be much greater  in New England
 than in the southwest because the collector array needs to be about
 twice as large.  Moreover, the land costs are greater and the environ-
mental  conditions differ.

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               STEAM TURBINE-  ,,
                 ALTERNATOR    5
              GENERATING PLANT ^

              THERMAL
             STORAGE UNIT
                                                      STEERABLE CYLINDRICAL
                                                       PARABOLA COLLECTORS
Fig  9-   Solar-Ground-Based Electric Generating Plant
          using  Single-Axis Steerable Concentrators
                       Reference 9

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                                   1-18
      In addition to the solar/thermal collection elements, a thermal
 storage subsystem will be required in order to satisfy energy genera-
 tion deficiencies at night and on cloudy days.  A long-term chemical
 storage system can be used to convert surplus solar power generated
 during the summer months into hydrogen or a hydrocardon fuel that can
 be burned in the winter to make up the deficiency in sunlight.   Optimum
 design of energy storage subsystems is required  to minimize the total
 amount of solar collector  surface area required  for a fixed,  steady
 electrical generating  capacity.   The general relationship of  both a
 short-term thermal  storage and  long-term  chemical  storage to  the solar
 farm  concept  is shown  schematically in Figure 10.

 3.    Energy Storage
      Any practical solar energy system for large scale electrical power
 production must  include efficient methods for both short- and long-term
 energy storage.
      Short-term storage systems include chemical batteries, mechanical
fly-wheels and thermal storage.1  Table II shows the capability for
candidate systems.

                                TABLE II
Material .iw\^ _
Water
Rocks
Glauber Salt
(Na2S04 - 10H20)
Latent Heat
System Joules -
Rocks Heated to 1000°C
Salt Heated to 1000°C
Chemical Storage
Lead Acid Batteries 0.
— Per ke 	
1.6 x 105
0.4 x 105
2.4 x 105
Storage Material
— Per kg 	
1 x 106
1 x 106

16 x 106
- Per Cubic Meter
1.6 x 108
0.5 x 108
3.5 x 108
g
Per Cubic Meter
1.68 x 109
2 x 109

0.5 x 109
3
1 x 10~3
.8 x 10~3
.6 x 10~3

M3/Vp
.6 x 10~3
.5 x 10~3

.32 x 10~3

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                           1-19

5OUAK PUWtrt r«r»m , ,„,
COLLECTING AREA

THERMAL
STORAGE

1 '
             "*"""" **""" "SUMMER"EXCESS" POWER
                                                  I
        POWER.
        OUTPUT
                           Figure 10
The Meinels' Proposal  for a Solar Energy Form (Reference  9)

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                                    1-20
       Because of energy losses, long-term storage must be in the form of
  fuel storage or pumped water.   The most attractive fuel appears to be
  hydrogen.     Stored at high pressure and burned with oxygen,  the energy
  storage capability of hydrogen is:15
  Stored At
   1 Atm. pressure
  100 Atm. pressure
  Liquid
Joules/kg
15.8 x 10(
15.8 x 106
15.8 x 106
Joules/M3
0.0014 x 109
0.14 x 109
1.12 x 109
M3/kg
11.3
.113
.014
      Electrolysis facilities can convert electricity into hydrogen at
 a rate of about 25 grams per kW-hr, which is equivalent to an efficiency*
 of 94%.  This would mean that in one day a 1000 MWe plant operating
 continuously would produce 600,000 kg of hydrogen per day.  Such an
 electrolysis facility is projected14 to cost about $100 per kilogram
 hydrogen produced per day and when stored at 100 Atm. pressure would
 require about 6.7 x 104 M3 of storage.
      A source of pure water or equipment to  capture and recycle the
 recombined water (result of combustion)  is required.
      Both hydrogen and oxygen are dangerous  gases, so special equipment
 arid  handling procedures are necessary,

 5.    Cooling Facilities
      It  seems unlikely that a 1000  MWe solar farm  (14 kM x 14 kM) would
 be located near  the ocean  or  a large  lake in New Hampshire.  Accordingly
 a solar  powered  steam  driven  generator would be  forced  to  use a cooling '
 tower facility.  The operation of the cooling facility is  substant-
 ially the same with solar derived energy as with other fuels and there-
 fore the size and cost should be comparable.   "As yet no one has built
a large dry cooling tower but estimates for a dry cooling facility for
a 1000 MWe fossil fuel plant  (n - 40%) is $40 to $60 per kW and $60 to
   65X
                          Pr°ductlon of hydrogen has been quoted  from

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                                 1-21
$75 per kW for a nuclear fuel plant (n = 33%).   The cost of a wet
cooling tower for a 1000 MWe plant would be about 50 percent of dry
unit cost."*
     The actual cost depends upon many factors  but data from 20 com-
                                                   22 23
pleted jobs show the cost scatter of $/kW is ±  40%.  '     The size re-
quired for a natural draft hyperbolic wet cool  tower for a 1000 MWe
                                                                  24
plant is about 125 meters at the base with a height of  115 meters.

     C.  Solar Augmented Space Heating and Cooling
     Studies show that of all possible uses of  solar energy, space
heating and cooling has the highest probability of success in the near
future.12'13'14'17  Even though it is dilute and intermittent, enough
solar energy strikes the roof of an ordinary home in New Hampshire to
provide several times its annual heating and cooling requirements.  The
problem is to design systems that will economically capture and store
the solar energy until it is needed.
     In the past 25 years about 1000** solar heated houses and labora-
tory structures have been built with various combinations of collector
designs, heat storage, heat distribution techniques and auxiliary
energy supplies.  This work, while generally successful, did not re-
ceive much attention because fuel cost has been low and suitable
structural and coating materials have been expensive.  These buildings
were experimental and not readily adaptable to standard construction
methods.  Past experience has therefore demonstrated technical feas-
ibility of solar-powered space heating but not its practical or economic
viability.
     Figure 11 illustrates the required components of a system for
solar heating and cooling and Figure 12 shows a specific example.
Using these diagrams as a reference, some important aspects of each
component are discussed.
 *  Professor L. Glicksman
 **  Solar Heated Buildings: A Brief Survey.  9th Edition.  May 27,
    1975, W.A. Shurcliff, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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                             1-22
 SUNLIGHT
                                       SPACE HEATING
                                        PROCESS
                  SUPPLEMENTARY
                  ENERGY SOURCE
Figure 11:  Required Components  for  Space Conditioning

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                                                                                                           DO
                                                                                                           CO
                            Figure 12:   Example of Space Conditioning System

From:  "Solar House IV," M.I.T.  Press,  Cambridge, 1958.

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                                    1-24
       Solar Insolution in New Hampshire
       The mean daily irradiance on a horizontal surface in selected geo-
  graphical locations is shown in Table III'   Day to day variations are
  large, with a typical range between peak and average of 1.5 to 1 in the
  winter, and 2 to 1 in the summer.13'18'19
       The data of Table III show that Concord,  New Hampshire,  at the peak
  (July/July) ,  receives solar energy at a rate (245 watts/^) which is equal
  only to the yearly average rate in Arizona.  Moreover,  the 2  to 1 variation
  in the mean daily solar  flux between summer  and winter  implies long-term
  (6 months)  as well as short-term (daily and  weekly)  energy storage is re-
  quired  in order  to fully utilize the available energy.  It is  interesting
  to note that  the per  capita consumption of energy  for the  USA  for the year
  1968 was  about 3 x 10 Btu,  which  is  equivalent to a constant  power  level
  of  about  10 kW per person.   The  consumption  for residential and commercial
  purposes were each about 20% of  the  total, or 2 kW per person.  Accordingly,
  an  average home  in Concord, New Hampshire, assuming six people per home,
 would need a yearly average of 12 kW.  To supply this amount even a Dec-
 ember sun would require only a 30 feet by 30 feet area if all the avail-
 able energy could be collected and stored.

      Solar Collectors
      Flat plate fluid (including air) collectors  are useful in low temp-
 erature application up to a temperature of about  85°C of the fluid.  They
 consist of a surface which is a good absorber of  solar radiation and a
 means of removing the absorbed  energy by allowing  a heat transfer  fluid
 (usually air or water)  to flow over the absorbing  surface.  A major diff-
 iculty  in collector design  is due to the large area  for  heat transfer which
 causes  heat loss  and lower  collector efficiency.  To  limit  losses,  the back
 of  the  collector  must  be well insulated.   The losses  from the upper  sur-
 face are then  suppressed by  placing  one  or more transparent surfaces  above
 the  absorbing  surface.  By using materials such as low iron content glass,
which are  transparent to visible, and opaque  to infrared energy, most  of
the  solar energy reaches the absorber, yet the outward heat losses are
minimized  (greenhouse effect).

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                                 1-25
                              TABLE III

          Mean Daily Insolation in Btu/M2-day and (Watts/M2)
Area
Horizontal
Surface
Arizona
Entire U.S.
New England
Concord , .
N.H.
Decemt
Horizontal
Surface
10,700
(130)
7,500
(90)
4,250
(50)
5,100
(60)
>er
Tilted1
Surface



11,200
(135)
June
Horizontal
Surface
23,000
(340)
23,500
(290)
17,000
(210)
20,000
(245)
i
Tilted
Surface



19,3003
(240)
Entire Year
Horizontal
Surface
20,000
(245)
15,000
(185)
11,500
(140)
12,500
(155)
1.   Tilt angle equal to latitude,  at local noon

2.   June/July Average

3.   In Concord, New Hampshire,  in June,  a surface tilted by 45°  receives
    less power than a horizontal surface.

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                                  1-26
      With  present designs,  flat  plate  collectors  are  capable  of  raising
  the  temperature of heat  transfer fluids  to approximately 50°  above  the
  ambient  temperature with an efficiency of 50%,  A common method  of
  raising  collector fluid  temperature is by increasing  the number  of
  transparent covers.  Typically,  one cover will give a 5°C to  34°C in-
  crease over ambient, two cover plates  35°C to 55°C, and three covers
  yield a  rise of 55°C to  85°C.  Other attempts to  increase the tempera-
  ture-efficiency performance include the use of selective coating of
  silicon  on the absorber, low reflectance coatings on the transparent
  cover plates, better insulating materials around the back of the
  collector,  and the use of honeycomb material to suppress convection
  losses.  Drawbacks of many selective coatings are,their instability (part-
  icularly at high temperature)  and their high cost.  Coating instability
  could be a problem.   In addition, collector maintenance due to freeze-up,
 dirt,vandalism etc.  is a serious consideration.
      Current estimates for  collector cost range from a low of  $15/M2
 to over $100/M2 with an average of about  $45/M2 using  contemporary tech-
 nology in large volume production.
      Thermal Storage
      A flat plate  collector  and  a low temperature  thermal storage sys-
 tem has  the advantage  that for  space heating,  the  stored energy is dir-
 ectly usable in thermal form.  The success of  a thermal storage system
 is dependent upon  the ability to  store  the thermal energy in a small
 volume with low loss.
      The  length of time over which heat is to  be stored influences
 greatly the design and  cost  of thermal  storage systems.  Recent studies2'20
 of  solar  house  heating  show  that  the only systems  that presently make
 sense economically are  the partially solar heated house with one or two
 day storage.
      Water  and rocks (see Table II) are the most commonly used thermal
 storage media in solar heating systems.   Water is plentiful,  inexpensive,
 and has high specific heat.   It works well for collectors with tempera-
 tures between 0°C and 100°C.   Rocks can  be used where air is  used  for
 energy transport between collector and  storage.  Generally,  rocks  have
a lower specific heat  (.2 to  1.0)  and the  storage volume  is greater.

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                                 1-27
     Estimates  by  Tybout and Lof20 show that an optimum system  is one
with a ratio of about  200 Ibs  (25 gallons) of water per square  meter of
collector area. In a  typical  installation this gives a storage cost of
about 50 cents  per gallon of water.
                                            it
     Economic Considerations of Space Conditioning with Solar Energy
     The cost of solar-thermal space conditioning can be divided into
collector cost  (i.e. the collector) and utilization cost (i.e.  storage,
pumps, controls, etc.).
     According  to  one study    the collector cost is about $45/M when
the collection efficiency is approximately 50%.  With a life of 20
years and an interest on capital of 8%, cost for solar heat would be
about $2.00/106 Btu when  (if)  all the collected heat can be utilized.
     The assumption that all the heat can be effectively utilized im-
plies either an efficient long-term storage system or that demand for
heat is uniform over the entire year.  The requirements for constant
demand is most nearly satisfied by a system that supplies a .combination
of domestic hot water, heating, and cooling.
     Heat energy from coal  costs about  $2.00/10  Btu, and from  oil  and
gas  about $2 to $3.50 per million  Btu.   "Therefore,  under idealized con-
ditions, the cost of low temperature  solar  heat  appears  to be approaching
competitiveness."                              ]
     The cost  of various  storage, pump  and  control configurations have
been studied using computer modeling techniques.   '    The results  for
 an optimized least cost heating and cooling system indicate that util-
 ization costs  are about #30/M2 of collector area.

      Other Aspects of the Use of Solar Energy for  Space Conditioning
      Due in part to the latitude, but more importantly the climatic
 conditions  in  New Hampshire, the use of solar energy is only practical
 as a supplement  to conventional supplies.  There are two reasons for
 this: (1) the extended periods of cloudiness and the  attendant varia-
 tions in the available solar energy make necessary a large amount of
 long-term energy storage, and (2) the seasonal variation  in the  avail-
 able solar energy  is out of phase with the heat load demand.  As  a

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                                   1-28
 consequence, without the use of auxiliary power, the solar collector
 and thermal storage systems are too large to be economically competi-
 tive.
      V  Studies indicate2'13'17'20 that the best balance in the New
 England area is a system to produce from 33% to 50% of the total space
 conditioning load.  Above this amount the required energy storage sys-
 tem is too large.
      •  Flat-plate collectors produce temperatures in a range from 0°C
 to 85 C which is compatible with the technology that is now used in
 hot water storage and distribution systems for homes.
         The bulk of the solar input occurs around noon (in New Hamp-
 shire,  in December, 60% in three hours).   Consequently, some thermal
 storage is necessary.   These self-contained storage systems can be
 "charged" electrically during periods of  off-peak loads and therefore
 can represent  an effective means for cutting peak loads.
         Solar  energy is more competitive  when used  with new buildings;
 one of  the basic requirements is that solar-powered buildings must be as
 well-insulated  as possible.   It  is also important  to make  maximum use
 of natural ventilation.  Typically,  new structures  designed for  solar
 space conditioning would emphasize energy efficiency.   For example,
 walls and roof  must be  as  small  as is  compatible with  the  space  require-
 ments.  The outside skin of  the  building  must  be  selected  with good  thermal
 performance.  For  air conditioning (cooling) purposes,  all windows facing
 south should be equipped with moveable overhangs  (one wants to accept
 solar heat  in the  winter), and all other windows sized  to  reduce heat ex-
 change.
     •  .In  order for solar space conditioning  to be  effectively  utilized,
 architectural concepts and construction practices will  have to change
 somewhat from the recent past.21   For  implementation of this technology,
means to overcome what are essentially social problems  are  likely  to  be
necessary.  Developing the technology  is not enough because the  frag-
mented building industry is traditionally slow to adopt new techniques.
Also, solar assisted heating systems, despite their lower fuel cost, will
entail higher initial cost, thus discouraging consumer acceptance.  In
any event, the slow rate of replacement of housing guarantees that it will
be several decades before a new heating system will have a significant impact
on total energy use.

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                                1-29
     '   In relation to the total energy consumed in New Hampshire,
solar derived power is destined to remain small.  Nevertheless,  solar
space conditioning can have a significant and favorable impact on
electric utilities.  There are several reasons for this: (1)  the solar
input is generally consistent* with the time of daily peak electrical
demand; (2) the installation (first) cost of solar/thermal conditioning
systems tend to be high while the first cost of electric heating sys-
tems tend to be low.  Accordingly,**it is reasonable to combine the two
installations using electrical energy as the auxiliary source of energy;
(3) electrically powered hot water storage systems are easy to install,
simple to operate and maintain; and (4) thermal storage units can be
routinely charged at off-peak hours using base load facilities.

III. SUMMARY
     Solar energy can be characterized as being identical to the radia-
tion from a black body at 6000°K.  Although  its thermodynamic potential
is high, solar flux is dilute and therefore  solar collectors are large
area devices.
     The least developed technique  for utilizing  solar  energy is the
large  scale production of electric  power.  Substantial  capital cost re-
ductions are necessary, perhaps by  a  factor  of  10 using thermal con-
version and a factor  of 100  using photovoltaic  conversion techniques.
In order to achieve reductions  of this magnitude, much  work will need
to be  done  to obtain  low  cost materials  and  material processing methods.
     There  is strong  evidence  that  a  large market exists  for  solar
 *Generally consistent with the time of  daily peak electrical demand
    means:  peak solar input is between 10:30 a.m.  and 1:30 p.m. during
    which the solar powered hot water storage is charged as much as it
    will be by, say, 2:00 p.m.  It is available and can be used for space
    heating during the (5-6) p.m. daily customer peak for electricity.
 ** If solar/thermal space conditioning systems are to be used and the
    first-cost do tend to be high, then it is indeed fortuitous that it
    is easy to add an electrical heating element to the hot water storage
    of the solar system.  The demand for electricity for this purpose can
    be made to coincide with the off-peak electrical hours of the bulk,
    central generation plant.

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                                   1-30
 heating  and  cooling  in residential  and  commercial  buildings.  Here  little
 additional development effort  is  needed and  future improvements  in  the
 performance  and  cost  of roof collectors,  etc. will only hasten the  accept-
 ance of  solar augmented space  conditioning.  An important economic  con-
 sideration is the fact that in any  space  conditioning system that utilizes
 solar/thermal energy  there is a need for  auxiliary  heat energy in order
 to obtain a minimum-cost system.  Because of this and the fact that most
 structures are installed with heating (and cooling) on a lowest-cost
basis, a combination of solar/thermal and electrical auxiliary power
appears to offer substantial benefits to both the consumer and utilities.
    .The present status of solar utilization is summarized by Table IV.

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                                   1-31
                                 TABLE IV

                   Present Status of Solar  Utilization



                                               STATUS
                                             c
                                             co
                                      &     a
                                       U     CX
                                       V-l     O
            ,  .                        0)    H
         Technique                    cu     
                                       0)     01
Thermal Energy for Buildings        	   	


     Water Heating	X     X


     Space Heating ---------X     X


     Space Cooling ---------X     X


     Combined System --------X     X





Electric Power Generation


     Thermal Conversion- ------  X


     Photovoltaic


        Residential	X     X


        Commercial- ---------X     X


     Ground  Central Station	X


     Space Central Station  -----  X
4J
CD
0)
H
4-1
CO

C/3



X



X



X



X
   fi
   o
  •H
01  4J
rH  rt
tfl  H
O  4-1
C«  CO
I  C
r-H  O
       X


       X
4-J
a
CO
             0)
             13
             O
        X
                  r-t
                  tfl CO
                  •H CO
                  o cu
                  H a
                  0) -H
                  o a)
                  o erf
       X

-------
                                    1-32
                                 REFERENCES
       wtehn                          Energy»" Publication No.
       P-104                     8Y Conversion Research Project, M.I.T.


  (2)  H.C. Hottel, and^J.B. Howard, "New Energy Technology,  Some Facts
       and Assessments," The M.I.T.  Press, Cambridge,  Massachusetts? 1971.

  (3)  P.C. Putnam, "Power from the  Wind," D.  Van Nostrand  Co.,  Inc.  1948.


  (4)  M'E; Her,°nemus>  Preprints "8th Annual Conference and Exposition
       Marine Technology Society," September 11-13,  1972, Washington? D.C.

  (5)  C.M  Summer,  "The Conversion  of Energy  Review Article," Scientific
       American,  September 1972,  p.  148.                       acientitic


                                            « "W°rld Distribution of
      Press  196"DireCt ^ °f ^ Sun Ener8y'" Y&le Diversity
 (9)  A.B  Meinel and M.P. Meinel, "Physic^ Looks at Solar Energy "
      Physics Today, February, 1972, p.  44. .               ^nergy,
(10)  -SSIV?"8! HS a National Ener8y Resource,  a Report of the NSF/
      NASA Solar Energy Panel,  University of Maryland,  December,  1972.

(11)   Palz,  W ,  Besson  J.,  Fremy,  J.  Duy,  T.  Nguyen, Vedel,  J.,  "Ana-
      lysis  of  the Performance  and  Stability of  CdS Solar  Cells " Pro-
      ceedings  of the 9th IEEE  Photovoltaic Specialists Conference
      Silver Spring,  Maryland,  May  2-4,  1972.               erence,
     ccdsTM Dili a? 1Brandhorst' H'W" ^., "The Degradation of
     CU2S-CdS Thin Film Solar Cells Under Simulated Orbital Conditions "
     Conference record of the 8th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Con-
     ference, Seattle, Washington, pp. 24-29, August 4-6, 1972?
     ilS' Lut<:1LIn^ S°lar Heated and Cooled Offlce Buildings for
     Massachusetts Audubon Society, Final Report, June, 1973.

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                                  1-33
(15)   W.E.  Morrow,  Jr.,  "Solar Energy Utilization,"  M.I.T.  Lincoln Labora-
      tory, June,  1973.

(16)   D.P.  Gregory,  "The Hydrogen Economy,"  Scientific  American 228,  13
      (1973);  L.W.  Jones, "Liquid Hydrogen as  a Fuel for  the Future,"
      Science  JL74_,  367  (1971); W.E.  Winsche, T.V.  Sheehan,  and  K.L.
      Hoffman, "Hydrogen — A Clean  Fuel for Urban Areas,"  1971 Inter-
      society  Energy Conversion Engineering  Conference, p.  23.

(17)   Terrestrial  Applications of Solar  Technology and  Research,  Final
      Report,  NASA Grant Study, School of Engineering,  Auburn University,
      September, 1973.

(18)   3-16  —  Climatic Atlas of the  United States, U.S. Government
      Printing Office, 1968.

(19)   3-17, Kusuda,  T.,  editor, Use  of Computers for Environmental Engineer-
      ing  Related  to Buildings, U.S.  Government Printing Office,  1971,
      p.  202.

(20)   Tybout and Lof, Solar House Heating Natural Resource  Journal,
      Vol.  10, April, 1970, pp. 263-325.

(21)   A.L.  Hammond,  Research News, Solar Energy, the Largest Source,
      Science, Vol.  177, September 22, 1972, pp. 1088-1090.

(22)   J.  Dickey, Jr., R. Gates, Managing Waste Heat  with  the Water
      Cooling  Tower, 2nd edition, The Marley Company, Mission,  Texas.

(23)   R.  Budenholzer, "Selecting Heat Rejection Systems for Future
      Steam-Electric Power Plants,"  Combustion,  October,  1972,  pp. 30-37.

(24)   Foster Wheeler Corp.  Heat Engineering Vol. XXXXVI,  No.  7,  April,
      1974.

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                                                         Richard H.  Baker
                               2-1                       December 1,  1974
                                                         Amended June,  1975
                                                         William J.  Jones
                            Monograph No.  2
                         MIT Energy Laboratory
                              WIND ENERGY

Wind Energy
     Wind energy is not distributed evenly over the globe.  On the average
it is more plentiful in temperate and polar latitudes.  Also, it is gen-
erally higher in coastal areas than inland.  Wind velocity increases loga-
rithmically with altitude up to the heights which one would consider in
windmill (turbine) use and its flow patterns near the ground are strongly
influenced by topography.  New England is one of the earth's windy regions;
the world's record wind velocity, 231 m.p.h., was recorded on top of Mount
Washington on April 12, 1934.
     Aeolian energy, as wind energy is sometimes referred to, is widely
available, inexhaustible, clean and free.  There is no question that it
works; it has been used for centuries serving individuals or small group
users.  Like hydroelectric power it can be used directly for the genera-
tion of electricity without the large losses associated with thermal to
mechanical energy conversion.  But wind energy is intermittent, variable
and is diffuse.  Consequently, its utilization (like solar) [for bulk
central power generation] requires a large number of collectors and ade-
quate storage systems.
     In New Hampshire large scale use of wind power for the generation of
electricity is possible.   It is a windy region with abundant high mountains
(forty-four over 4000 ft. elevation) near large population centers.

Large-Scale Electrical Power Generation
     In order to be practical, large-scale wind-powered generating systems
must have a good site location with a high mean wind velocity.  The wind
turbine must have an efficient aerodynamic design to operate over a wide
range of wind speeds, and the electrical system must be properly integrated
with established power grids.  This requires careful voltage and frequency

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                                      2-2
   control of the power output which otherwise would be just as variable as
   the wind.

   Site Location
        The energy available  is proportional to the  cube of  the wind velocity
   The  wind velocity  increases and turbulence decreases with height above the
   surrounding ground.  Mountain peaks, therefore, as well as high narrow
   ridges running in  a north-south direction are good potential sites.1  The
   repeatability of the pattern from year to year is also i^ortant.  The
  best overall descriptor is a wind Velocity^Duration Curve.  From these data
  and the characteristics of the wind turbine, the total utilization factor
   (kW hr/year generated per kW machine capacity)  can be calculated.   Other
  important  site/wind factors are the frequency-distribution of wind  direction
  the vertical distribution of both  the horizontal and  vertical component,  of
  the wind velocity,  the  characteristics  of gust  fronts, etc.1  These data  are
  not now available for New Hampshire except for Mount Washington.

  Large Wind Turbines
       Wind has low energy per unit area.   Because of this, wind turbines are
  necessarily large and must be designed to operate efficiently over a wide
  range of torque speed and load conditions.   Present rotor designs are low
  solidity,  high tip-speed, high stress structures.2  Some of the technical
 design problems are: 1)  determination of vibratory loads  in presence of
 windshears  resulting from earth boundary layers;  2) aeroelastic  instabilities
 including effects of high coning angles  and  stall flutter;  3)  control  for
 optimum power output and speed regulation; 4)  protection  from  high winds;
 and  5) icing  on turbine  or fan blades and on  supporting structures.
     The^only large  American wind turbine ever built and  tested was in
 Vermont.   This machine  was  designed  to produce 1.2 megawatts in a 35 m.p.h
 wind with an overall efficiency of 30%.  It had two 8 ton blades (175' tip
 to tip), one of which failed from metal fatigue.
     The energy in a wind stream is proportional to h PAV3 where P is the
density of the air,  A is the area, and V  the wind velocity.   The max^um
power that a windmill can extract from an air stream is 59.3%3  of the kinetic

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                                   2-3
energy passing through the area swept by the blades.  Windmills of good
aerodynamic design can achieve about 70% of the theoretical maximum,
i.e., 41.5%.
                                                                         2
     The output from a windmill increases linearly with the area, or as R
       2                                    3
(A = irR ), while blade stress increases as R .  This "square-cube" relation-
ship limits the maximum size of a windmill because of the diminished power
to weight ratio.
     With available materials, the largest size windmills presently en-
visioned are about 200' tip to tip, mounted on a tower about 150 feet
              124
high.  Studies ' '  indicate that such a windmill (located at a suitable
site) would be a nearly optimum design and could produce up to 10 MWe at a
cost between $350 per kW and $400 per kW of installed capacity.  To generate
the equivalent output of a single fossil fuel or nuclear 1000 MWe plant would
require a hundred of these windmills.  These windmills will produce that
amount of power only for a small fraction of the day.

Windmill Control and Integration with Existing  Power Grids
     There are two ways to design a wind turbine to  operate efficiently
over a wide range of wind speeds.   One is to allow the windmill to operate
at a constant blade-tip to wind speed ratio and design the load to absorb
power as the cube of the wind speed.   The other is to change the blade
pitch, thereby varying the torque but keeping the blades at a constant rpm.
The constant-pitch, variable-speed system is simpler mechanically but re-
quires a frequency-controlled alternator.  Direct nonsynchronous machines,
where the variable ac is converted to dc and back to ac again,  using
                                                                2 5
batteries for the intermediate storage,  have also been proposed. '   This
type of conversion has the advantage of  decoupling the variable frequency
                                    2
windmills from the mixed power grid.
     In order to avoid double conversion losses, it  is important to utilize
wind energy on-line as much as possible.  On the other hand, in order to
extract the maximum average energy available from an intermittent and var-
iable wind system, it is necessary to have an energy storage facility.
     Candidate storage systems include:  Secondary batteries which have the
advantage of storing at an overall efficiency of about 75%.  Energy densities

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                                      2-4
  are from 10 to 100 watt-hours/pound and 30 to 100 watts per pound with a
  battery life of about five years.  The cost is estimated2 Bt about $80 per
  kilowatt hour.  The use of battery storage systems are now being studied
  from critical materials standpoint (lead and zinc).
       Pumped water storage systems are quoted at 67%  efficiency and at a
  typical cost of $180 per kilowatt hour.2
       Compressed air storage is about  67% efficient and would cost about
  $100/kW of  installed capacity.
      A systeorfor  the electrolysis of  water  to  produce hydrogen is a  pop-
  ular concept.  •  '    cost estimates vary  from $100  to  $250  per  kilowatt  of
  installed capacity.    One  problem is the availability of suitable pure
  water  for electrolysis.1  The feasibility of storing  hydrogen  in  the
  gaseous state along with the problem of hydrogen induced embrittlement
  of metals is also being  studied.
      The availability of water and the need for high pressure storage has
  led some to propose an off-shore-wind program with windmills out  in the
 ocean off the coast of New England.6'10  The arguments are that the wind
 is more consistent, there is abundant  water for electrolysis, and the
 hydrogen can be securely stored in deep water at very high pressure.
      Considerable research is required  to determine the effects of sea-
 sonal variations in wind  direction, velocity  range, gusts,  and  sea state.
 A salt  water/atmosphere environment is  very hostile to machinery and
 electrical equipment.   The  combined effects of corrosion and  hydrogen  em-
 brittlement  on the hydrogen storage tanks must be predictable.
     Off-shore oil drilling and production platforms for anchorage in
 depths of water up to 300 feet have been in use for some time.  A  wind-
 power system designed and constructed to survive the combined forces and
 stresses due to ocean currents (surface and sub-surface), wind gusts,
yawing due to attempts to remain orthogonal to wind direction, and the
Coriolis force (effect of earth rotation)  is a significant  engineering task.

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                                   2-5
Studies Concerning Small Windmill Systems
     Before 1950, when rural electrification became widely used,  about
50,000 small windmills were used in the midwest.   The enactment of the
Rural Electrification Act brought low cost,  reliable central generating
station electricity to the farms.
     It is interesting to note that wind energy is now being evaluated
as a supplemental fuel in megawatt-size wind turbines, and medium size
(lOOkW) installations that may also combine water electrolysis and fuel
                                      2
cells for commercial power production.
     Consideration of the use of windmills to produce supplemental energy
for individual residential and small commercial applications is also
growing.  However, such wind systems, complete with tower structure,
windmill, storage batteries, and dc to ac inverters are available with
ratings of 10 to lOOOkW-hbur/month at a cost of about $l,500/kW capacity.
In addition, the owner would either have to be technically competent or
hire persons to maintain such systems.
     Results from on-going research and development efforts appear to
offer much improved performance by simpler systems.  Both the National
Science Foundation and the Energy Research and Development Agency are
funding R & D efforts, albeit the total dollar funding is considered by
many to be too low.  Horizontal-Axis Wind Turbine Studies include:
     •  NASA, 125' diameter, 100 kW-turbine design emphasizing a low-
          cost technology.  This system is designed to operate directly
          into a power system grid without storage and is scheduled to
          be operational in July, 1975.
        Oklahoma State University, Bicycle-wheel Turbine; high-lift:/
          low-drag structure designed for light weight and low cost.
          Early results indicate the efficiency is close to the theo-
          retical limit of 59%.
     •  Princeton University, 25' diameter Sailwing.  The blades have
          a cross section similar to a high performance glider wing
          giving maximum lift and minimum weight.  Both Grumman and
          Fairchild are working with the design.   Results to date are

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                                     2-6
          outstanding,  the  lift/drag ratio is  20:1, the complete wing
          weighs only 44 pounds and has survived 160 knot wind tests.
      The Darrieus Vertical-Axis wind rotor was invented in 1931.  The
 vertical-axis configuration has the advantage that its operation does
 not depend upon the wind direction and therefore it has a high potential
 for high efficiency in rapidly varying wind directions.   This,  together
 with the advantage that the output is at the bottom of the structure,
 simplifies the design, reduces cost and allows wind power to be used'in
 more turbulent wind patterns.2'8  A disadvantage is that the device is
 supported only at the base and*the foundation and bearings are  subject
 to high bending forces.

 Summary
      It appears  that  the earliest  application of  modern wind  power will
 be,  as  it has  been  in  the  past,  to meet individual or small community
 needs supplementing the more conventional sources.  This allows efficient
 utilization of the distributed nature of wind  energy.  There are a number
 of active research programs in this area.
     Conceptual designs for large central power plants have been done and
 cost estimates made.  We have little practical experience with even the
 components of such large systems.  The construction of large plants would
 involve substantial risk.   No environmental Impact analyses have been
made.
     Present cost ranges appear to be as follows:
     Wind Turbine:  $350 -  $400 per kW installed capacity.
     Storage:
        Pumped  Water:  $180  - $220 per  kilowatt hour
        Electrolysis of Water:  $100  - $250  per kilowatt  installed
                               capacity.
        Hydrogen Storage
        (High Pressure  System):   $75 - $110 per kWh - day.
        Batteries:  $80 - $100 per kilowatt hour.
        Compressed Air:  $80 - $100 per kilowatt hour.

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                                   2-7
     System Integration and Control:
     In order to make a realistic estimate of cost for the integration
and control of a large windmill system into the existing power system,
it is necessary to know in fair detail the quantity or quality of the
wind in New Hampshire.  The trade-offs are complex; for example, if the
windmills are clustered in one region, the cost of crew housing, power
transmission, etc. are reduced.  On the other hand, if 200 or 300 wind-
mills are widely dispersed, the total output power produced by the "wind-
grid" would probably be more even and therefore require less energy
storage capacity, etc.  Maintenance costs for the windmill would be in-
creased by its remoteness; however, the windmill is less complex than
some other systems, etc.  As a guess, a first-cost of $100 per kWh
installed capacity for  system integration and control, along with 5%
per year maintenance, might be reasonable.
     In order  to  develop  a dispersed wind energy powered  electric genera-
tion utility,  a number  of issues, actions and developments must  take
place.
     1)  The state or region must be  surveyed for  average, peak, and
         gustiness of winds, preferably over a  span of  a  few years.
     2)  Assembledge of data on  icing  conditions  and  snow fall amounts.
     3)  Determination of site availability, access to  and from for  con-
          struction,  maintenance  and  coupling to regional  electrical  grid.
      4)   Selection  of optimum  size  and support  structure  for each  site.
      5)   Establishment schedules for  that portion of  electricity obtained
          from wind  energy.
      The time necessary to accomplish the above for  a system that  would
 deliver 1000 megawatts average would be in the order  of ten to fifteen
 years.

-------
                                    2-8
                                REFERENCES
 1.  P.C. Putnam, Power from the Wind.  D. Van Nostrand Company, Inc.,
       1948.

 2.  Wind Energy Conversion Systems, Workshop Proceedings. NSF/NASA,
       Washington, B.C., June 1973.

 3.  H. Glavert, The Elements of Airfoil and Airscrew Theory.   Cambridge
       University Press, 1948.

 4.  N. Wade, "Windmill Technology," Science, Vol. 184, June 7, 1974,
       pp. 1055-1058.

 5.  R.H. Miller et.al., Research on Wind Energy Conversion Systems,
       Proposal submitted to NSF from MIT Department of Aeronautics and
       Astronautics, July 1, 1974.

 6.  W.E. Heronemus, "Reprints,  8 Annual Conference and Exposition,
       Marine Technology Society."  Washington,  D.C. (C) 1972  MTS,
       September 11-13, 1972.

 7.  K. King, Sales Agent,  Solar Wind Company, Fryeburg, Maine.

 8.  P. South and R. Rangi,  "The Performance and Economics of  Vertical-
       Axis Wind Turbines."   Presented at 1973 Annual Meeting  of the
       Northwest Region of  the American Society of Agricultural Engin-
       eers, Calgary, Alberta, October 10-12, 1973.

 9.  Elihu Feie, "A Hydrogen Based Economy," Report 69-09-10,  The
       Futures Group, Glastonbury, Connecticut,  October 1972.

10.  Dambolena, I.E., "A Planning Methodology for the Analysis and
       Design of Wind-Power  Systems," PhD Dissertation, University  of
       Massachusetts, January 1974.

-------
                                 3-1                    William J.  Jones
                                                        December 1, 1974
                                                        Amended June,  1975
                                                        William J.  Jones
                            Monograph No.  3
                         MIT Energy Laboratory
                    OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION

     Sea water is always colder at depth.   Surface waters are warmed by
capturing solar energy and storing it.  The deeper one goes the colder
it is, and often approaches the freezing point.  The possibility of
using heat engines, operating on the temperature difference between sur-
face and deep waters to produce electricity for direct use or for pro-
duction of fuel, perhaps hydrogen, excites the interest of scientists
and industrialists alike.
     The maximum absolute temperature and the maximum temperature differ-
ential of surface and deep waters varies with latitude.  In the region
between 20°N and 20°S the differentials encountered are sufficient
(20°C) to vaporize other working fluids (freon, ammonia, etc.).  The
lower temperature behavior characteristics of such fluids permit one to
                                                O
operate turbines and hence generate electricity.   (see Figures 1, 2 and
3).
     Between the Tropic of Cancer 23°N and the Tropic of Capricorn 23 S,
the ocean's surface stays almost constantly at 25  because of the heat
collected from the sun and heat lost due to evaporation and other
processes.
     This warm water moves toward the poles (the Gulf Stream is one
ocean current in the Atlantic Ocean) where it melts the ice.  The water
of the melted ice is very cold, hence much denser than the surface water.
The cold water sinks to the ocean floor where it moves towards the equator
and upwells to replace the warm surface water that has moved towards the
poles.  In the tropics the water at depths of 3000 feet is about 5 C.  It
is in this region only that solar/sea electric power generation is
possible.
     The efficiency of an ocean thermal generating plant would be very
low.  The Hiaximum thermodynamic efficiency for a temperature differential
of ten to twenty degrees for the working fluid, which corresponds to an
 *  There are situations where this may  not  be  so, but  are  not pertinent
    to this discussion.

-------
                                3-2
                  Off Brazil     0,
                  Off Brazil     16°S.
                  Off Guade-    16°N
                       loupe
                                              AT. °C, to
                                              Depth
                                            700 m   900m
                  43.3°W  22.1
                  38°W   21.9
                  60.5°W  20.9
22.6
23.2
21.4
              200
400  600   800   1000
Ocean Depth (meters)
                                        1200
Figure 1:   Thermoclines  in the Tropical  Atlantic Ocean
                         Reference 8

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                                           3-3
                                         Demister
 Warm Sea Water
                                                    8.7 Atm
               Out
   Cold Sea Water '" ^ 5°C
                    7°C
                                                         •To Generator
               Ammonia
               Loop
                       7) 10.7°C
                          5.1 Atm
                       Simplified Loop Diagram
T, =T4
T2=T3
Liquid 4
Heat-Up i
3»f
f't
<''?
\
''""N
/Evaporation*
r,
Expansion
(Turbine)
Condensation
V
\ (Sat.
,^P
\
\
\
., ,..\.
or)
      S3a =83
        a
        Temperature-Entropy (T-S)
              Diagram
S2
-j  -,          S1 = S2
Enthalpy-Entropy (H-S)
       Diagram
                                             Fig. 2  Simplified loop diagram
                                             (for tropical ocean temperatures
                                             and ammonia working fluid),  T-S
                                             diagram, and H-S diagram  for the
                                             closed-Rankine cycle, Ocean
                                             Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC)
                                             plant.
                                         Figure 2
                                       Reference  8

-------
                                                      3-4
Warm water 25°C

\  \
                                                     Electric power output
                         High-pressure
                         ammonia vapor
     Boiler
                            20°C
                            10°C
                                                             Low-pressure
                                                             ammonia vapor
                                                                   10°C
                                                                   10°C
                                            Liquid
                                            pressurizer
                                                                              Condenser
  Warm water
  exhausted
  at 23 °C level
                         High-pressure
                         ammonia liquid
                                                             Low-pressure
                                                             ammonia liquid
                                                                                                        7°C
                                                                                                            V
                                                                                      5°C

                                                                                    Cold water intake
                                                                                                            v
                                                                                                         Cold water
                                                                                                         exhausted
                                                                                                         at 7°C level
Schematic diagram of a solar sea power plant.  Ammonia is as-
sumed to be the working fluid in the boiler, turbine and compres-
sor  in this example, but more recently developed refrigerating
                                                           fluids, such as the freons, might be preferable.  The quantity c
                                                           water passing through the boiler is comparable with that passin
                                                           through a hydroelectric plant with the same output.
                                                 Figure 3
     Source:
               Zener,  Clarence,  "Solar  Sea Power,"  Physics  Today,  pp
               January 1973.
                                                                                            48-53,

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                                   3-5
ocean surface/deep temperature difference of 21°C is about 3 percent.
Practically, the efficiency obtainable would be no more than 2 to 2.5
percent.  This, in itself, is not a serious drawback; the temperature
difference (fuel) is free.  The low efficiency is important because the
size of the plant would be greater than any other type of electric
power plant.  Large amounts of water must be circulated through the
heat exchanger.  The costs need not necessarily be greater because the
pressure differentials are not great and boilers, heat exchangers and
turbines need not be constructed so as to withstand 1500 pound differ-
entials.  Solar  sea systems can be designed for pressure differentials
of only a few pounds.  It is  the cost-per-kilowatt hour of electricity
produced that is most  important.
     In 1929 a Frenchman, George Claude, built9 an ocean  thermal gradient
power plant in Cuba that  produced  22 kW  of  useful power.  The  system used
sea water as the working  fluid which proved to be inefficient  because of
its low vapor pressure.   The  system, as  a  competitor  to fossil-fueled
plants, was an  economic failure  at that  time.
     Anderson  and Anderson1  carried out  a  detailed  study  of  an ocean
thermal power  plant in 1966.   Their studies resulted in an  estimate of
capital cost of  $165/kW for  a 100  MW  sea power  plant.  At that time,  the
estimate was comparable to  the cost of a conventional fossil-fuel  plant.
     Fossil-fuel plants currently  cost $350-400/kW and nuclear reactors
are now approaching  $500/kW in capital cost.   Even if one allows for
 inflation,  ocean thermal  power plants  are increasingly attractive.
Avery's estimates for the cost of  a 1000 megawatt (electrical) plant
 are reproduced as Table 1.
      Rust3 estimates a capital cost of approximately $560 per kilowatt
 for a solar sea power plant.  Hence,  a 1000 megawatt power plant would
 cost 560 million dollars, about twice the estimate of Avery.
      Rust3 estimates that the amount of  sea water required to produce
 1000 MWe would be 5.6 x 1010 pounds per  hour (about a hundred million
 gallons per minute, or over one-third the flow of the Mississippi River)
 through the condenser.  The  separation between the inlet ducts for these

-------
                      ELECTRIC POWER COST ATOTP
CONSTRUCTION COST 1000 MW PLANT           -            $263M         I69M
FIXED CHARGES AT II.8%                                  $ 3[M          2OM
     INCLUDES COST OF MONEY             8.2%
     DEPRECIATION &  REPLACEMENTS        1.2%
     INSURANCE                          .2%
     INCOME TAXES                       2.2%
OPERATING COSTS                                       $ IOM          9M
                                                              Co
TOTAL ANNUAL COST                                    $4IIV1         29M
COSTMILLS/KWH         '                              4.57         3<3
;  Avei^r
                           Table I
                (2>  ',                                                10/28/74

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                                   3-7
two systems would be in the order of 4000 feet.   To move these amounts
of water over these distances would require considerable energy.   Pumping
energy requirements could be reduced with large cross section ducts and
heat exchangers.
     The area of the ocean between latitudes 10  north and 10  south
around the earth is about 30 million square miles.   The average insolation
energy on the surface is about 20 watts per square foot.  One may, then,
consider this the heat replacement rate.  At an extraction efficiency of
3%, 60 square miles 0.0004% of that tropical ocean area, where the depths
exceed 2000 feet, would support a 1000 megawatt electric power plant.
     A solar sea power plant need not be used to produce only electricity.
The warm surface waters in the tropics are often exhausted by the high
rate of photosynthesis, of nutrients that are necessary for marine life.
The cold water that upwells  brings with it large quantities of bottom
nutrients and no organisms which produce disease in humans, predators and
parasites in shellfish.  This formerly bottom water can be used in
mariculture (artificial forms of sealife that can be eaten by man or
introduced into his food chain).  In addition, large quantities of fresh
water could be produced for shipment to the shore communities.  The
combined revenues from power generation, mariculture and desalination,
could make solar sea energy development very beneficial.
     Ammonia is manufactured for use in the production of chemicals and
other products.  The principal use  is in fertilizers.  In the U.S., natural
gas is the feedstock for the ammonia factories.  Natural gas is in critical
short supply.  Production of ammonia at an ocean thermal plant would require
only nitrogen from  the atmosphere and hydrogen from the sea water.   Since
the demand for  fertilizers will  continue to increase,  the economic
attractiveness  of such an adjunct to an Ocean Thermal  Energy Conversion (OTEC)
plant will increase.
     On  one hand OTEC  is very attractive economically;  on  the  other  hand,
a great  expanse  of  the sea and nearby estuaries would  be  involved.   Pas-
kausky^  suggests that  the  environmental  impact by  the  redistribution of
dissolved oxygen, nutrients,  isotherms  and  corrosion products  needs

-------
                                     3-8
  thorough  investigation because oceanic fauna are much more sensitive
  than  estuarine fauna.
       On 13 July 1974, the Solar Energy Task Force of the Project In-
  dependence Blueprint Study issued a report on Ocean Thermal Energy Con-
  version.  It describes a program which is designed to "establish the
  technical, economic, and geopolitical feasibility of large-scale floating
  power plants capable of converting ocean thermal energy into electrical
  energy, leading to the commercial utilization of such plants and the
 production of significant amounts of energy."
      The OTEC intends to initiate construction of a proof-of-concept
 experiment very early in the 1980's.  This is expected  to lead to a
 100 MWe demonstration plant  before  the middle 1980's and  a total pro-
 duction capacity  of 1000 MWe by the mid-1980's.
      Based on certain assumptions,  two scenarios are postulated  for avail-
 ability of ocean  thermal  powered, electric generating plants:

                I.   "Business-as-Usual"
                       1985       1,000 MWe*
                       1900       4,000 MWe
                       1995      16,000 MWe
                       2000      65,000 MWe
               II.  "Accelerated" (government incentives,  etc.)
                       1985       1,000 MWe
                       1990       6,300 MWe
                       1995      40,000 MWe
                       2000     260,000 MWe
     These estimates are based on the belief that the technology re-
quired for OTEC is relatively low-level and only a few scientific or
technical breakthroughs are required.
  MWe  - megawatts  of  electricity

-------
                                   3-9
     The authors of the "Blueprint" further acknowledge that environmental
consequences cannot be predicted before at least a pilot plant is built.
Also, siting limitation associated with availability of thermal resource
and of suitable ocean conditions, plus regulatory problems, such as
freedom-of-navigations and law-of-the-sea considerations may impose certain
limits to the availability of ocean areas for this application.
     Such problems as biofouling of components and subsystems, anchoring,
mooring, dynamic positioning of materials compatibility and corrosion,
construction system and methodology for power plant installation and
maintenance are considered "avoidable or corrective."  Means of transporting
(including conversion and storage, as necessary) large amounts of power
generated at a distance at sea is not discussed.
     In view of the complete lack of experience in the generation of
electricity from solar sea thermal differential, the wide range of capital
costs  (estimates both for the plant and the transmission lines to the
shore) and the nature of the problems anticipated, the timetable of Project
Independence Blueprint for OTEC  appears rather optimistic.

-------
                                     3-10
                                BIBLIOGRAPHY

     ul^Lf i1±3M ?;; °Cea? Thermal P°Wer' a-^^l Presentation to
     P^:-,,  T  ?  Mathlas/nd Mr'  J« Sawhill of the FEA at the Applied
     Physics Laboratory of the Johns Hopkins University, October 30,  1974
 4)        "                           Power
 5)   Othmer, DP.  and  Roels,  O.A.,  "Power,  Fresh Water, and Food  from  Cold
     Deep  Sea Water,"  Science Volume  182, pp.  121-125, October  12,  1973?


                      "^  *** P°Wer»" ™"**B Today, pp. 48-53,



 7)  Metz  William D.  "Ocean Temperature Gradients: Solar Power  from  the
     Sea,  Science Volume 180, pp. 1266-1267, June 22, 1973.


8)  Avery, et.al., "Tropical Ocean Thermal Powerplants and Potential

    Products " American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and
    the American Astronautical Society Conference on Solar Energy for
    thejarth,  AIM Paper No. 75-617, 21 April 1975, New York? New £rk
9)

-------
                                 4-1                  William J.  Jones
                                                      December 1, 1974
                                                      Amended, June 1975
                                                      William J.  Jones
                            Monograph No.  4
                         MIT Energy Laboratory
                           GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

     In man's quest for low cost energy, geothermal energy has met some
of his requirements for several thousand years.  Hot springs have been
contained or the waters channeled to baths, to assist in agriculture,  to
move machinery directly and, most recently, to generate electricity.   As
a substitute for fossil and nuclear fuels, it beckons consideration.
     Geothermal energy, in the broadest sense, is the natural heat of  the
earth.  One may consider the earth as consisting of a core of molten
material at a temperature of 4000 C with ever-increasing layers of mat-
erial (like skins of an onion) between it and the earth's surface.  The
temperature decreases as one approaches the surface of the earth.  The
heat at the center flows out to the surface at a low rate (1.5 calories
per square centimeter per second).
     The "layers" referred to above are not constant in thickness all
over the volumes that they enclose.  In addition, there are "breaks,"
"depressions," and "bumps" which result in an uneven outward flow of heat
at certain spots and hence great differences in near surface temperature.
The extreme case is an active volcano where there may seem to be a hole
or passage from the center core radially outwards to the surface.
     A very crude section of the earth is shown in Figures 1 and 2.
In the outer layer, the crust is composed mostly of rock formations.
The base of the crust is about 10 to 50 Km (6-10 miles) below the surface
of the earth, with the smaller figure applying under the oceans.  As we
go down into the earth, the temperature rises by about 10  to 20 C per
Km so that temperatures in the crust can rise to as high as 1000 C
(1800°F).12
     Frequently "hot spots" exist where the unevenness of the layers or
breaks in some of the "layers" below them allow more heat to flow from
the core so that much higher temperatures occur at that place than exist
elsewhere beneath the earth's surface at that depth.

-------
                                  4-2
                   CONTINENT — — »« SHELF - +«       OCEAN
                          > I
                   /   CONTINEMTAl
                        CWST
                      MOHO
Figure 1:   Schematic section through  earth's crust at an inactive
            coastline,  such as that of  eastern North America.
                            Reference  11

-------
                                4-3
                                  •continental crust
                                  35 km thick
                                  density 2.'
.7*
                                                               oceanic  crust
                                                               5 km water
                                                               5 km rock
                                                               density  3.0*
                                                       *  not  to  scale
                                                                      •3

Figure 2:  Crust, mantle and core.  The figures are densities in g/cm~
                              Reference  11

-------
                                     4-4
       There are locations where the rain  (surface) water oozing down
  through the outer "layers" comes in contact with these "hot spots"
  (Figure 3).  The water is heated, may turn to steam, and force its way
  to the surface.  Depending upon the temperature of the "hot spot" and
  the path to the surface, the water may emerge as steam, hot water, or
  a mixture of both.  The heated water, at depth,  is under pressure and
  may "flash" to steam upon approaching the surface where the pressure
  is less.
       If seismic and geophysical data so indicate,  holes are drilled
  down towards the irregularities in the contours  to "hot rocks."   Water
  is pumped  down the holes,  and upon contact with  the high temperature
  material,  turns to steam and  transfers the heat  to the  surface.
       Geothermal resource areas are:  1)  areas  on  the surface of the earth
  where steam  or  hot water  emerge,  or  2)  where  artificial stimulation is
  possible because of  the  "bumps" which  are close  enough  to the surface
  (less than 9000 feet)  to be reached by drilling.
       These areas are not evenly distributed over the earth's surface.
  The west, Alaska and the Virginias are  the only  such places in 49  of the
  United States,  as  Figures 4 and 5 show.   Figures 6 and  7*show world-wide
  distribution.   In Hawaii the Center for Science Policy  and Technology
  Assessment of the Governor's office is considering a plan for using the
  geothermal energy in that state.  It is believed that deep-lying hot
  rock might be used to create electricity-generating steam.
      The Hawaiian Islands are volcanic in origin and there are a number
  of active and dormant volcanoes.  The most probable source is on Hawaii,
 where University of Hawaii scientists are seeking evidence of steam or
 super-hot  water.
      New England and  the  Midwest are almost completely devoid  of  any
 opportunities to develop  geothermal  energy.  This is not to  say that one
 cannot obtain geothermal  energy in New England.   It is the depths  to
 which one must  drill  and  the kinds of materials that  will be encountered
 on  the way down  which make  it  very unlikely that  it will ever be done,
 even  though geothermal  energy  may  be considered "free."  In  addition,
 the energy necessary  to pump cold  water  down and  then up again after  it
 has been heated may be greater  than that extracted.
*Figures  4-7 are from Armstead,  Christopher,  editor, "Geothermal  Energy:
   Review of  Research and  Development"  UNESCO,  Paris,  1970.

-------
                                 4-5
Fieure 3:  Illustrations of a geothermal field showing how heat can
           be tapped.  Adapted from Muffler,  L.J.-P.,• and White, D.E.
           (1972).  The Science Teacher 39 (3), p.  40.

-------
                                                 4-6
                                   DESCRIPTION OF THERMAL SPRINGS


                                          84'          80"           76
         j   MISSOURI    ""S    £
         '                   \j~~-*
          I                 <

DKLAHOMAJ    ARKANSAS  f-'-
          1      »_»        I
                Eastern part of the conterminous United States showing location of thermal sprlnga.
                                          Figure  4

-------
                                            OTHKH  COAXES 0»
  0   100  200  300  400 KILOMETERS
       J	1
Western part ot tb. co.terra.nouB United State, ahowing location of thermal .prln^
                           Figure  5

-------
THERMAL SPRINGS  OF THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD
                            Figure 6

-------
                           THERMAL SPRINGS
30-
                                                                            v- x-..r:
                                                                        NEW HEIIKIOES IS
                             Figure  7

-------
                           4-10
1500
1250
 1970
1975
                                      1980
                                    1985
   NOTE:   In 1985,  Case  1  represents  19,000 MWe of installed
          capacity;  Case 2 -  9,000 MWe;  Case 3 - 7,000  MWe
          Case 4 -  3,500 MWe.
                       Figure 8

         TOTAL U.S.  ENERGY  FROM GEOTHERMAL  SOURCES


  SOURCE:   National  Petroleum Council

-------
                                  4-11
     We should encourage the exploration for and exploitation of geothermal
energy in localities where it is close to the surface and of sufficiently
high heat quality.  This would permit release of scarce conventional fuels
for use in non-geothermal areas.  The primary uses to date have been for
the generation of electricity and for space heating.
     World-wide geothermal generating capacity (Figure 8) is about 900 MW,
which is about 1/10 of 1 percent of world generating  capacity from all
modes.  Most of this generating capacity is in three  areas: Larderello in
Italy, the Geysers in California, and Wairakei in New Zealand.  There are
also generating plants at Monte Amiata in Italy, Kawerau in New Zealand,
Matsukawa and Otake in Japan, Pauzhetsky and Paratunka on the Kamchatka
Peninsula in the USSR, Manafjail in Iceland, and Pathe in Mexico.  Geo-
thermal energy is used directly for space heating (Figure 9) in Iceland,
the USSR, Hungary, New Zealand, and the United States.
     There are several other, as yet minor uses (Figure 10), of geothermal
heat.  It is used in agriculture to heat greenhouses and soil.  At Kawerau,
New Zealand, geothermal heat is used in paper manufacture, and at Namafjall,
Iceland for drying diatomite.  At Rotorua in New Zealand, geothermal heat
is used via a lithium bromide absorption unit to air condition hotels.  Some
geothermal fluids contain potentially valuable mineral by-products.  Various
schemes of desalination using geothermal heat have been proposed.  And
finally, there are the time-honored uses of geothermal waters for bathing
and therapeutic purposes.

GEOTHERMAL RESERVES
     A concept as superficially  simple as geothermal reserves has consider-
able room for ambiguity and uncertainty.  Furthermore, when we  consider our
inadequate knowledge  of the nature and distribution of geothermal resources,
we can see that there is reason  for considerable disagreement on the magni-
tude of our geothermal energy reserves.
     Potential annual production from geothermal sources under  varying  con-
ditions as studied by the National Petroleum Council, ranges  from 250
trillion Btu  to  1.4  quadrillion  Btu  in 1985.  Table I lists  the types of
resources; Figure 5  indicates  three possible situations  based on:

-------
                                                4-12
      n
                        STORAGE
       GEOTHERMAL
         WATER,
          260° F.
                  j
                                               SUPPLY TO HOUSES, 190° F.
                                                                        T
    I
HEATING OF HOUSES and other buildings  is done in a few
leaves by a scheme such as the one shown hero. Ceothermal water
                                                                                          WASTE
is pumped to a storage tank, from which it flows to the buildings.
Such systems are in use or being developed in several countries.
                                            Figure  9*
            from Barnea,  Joseph, "Geothermal Power,"  Scientific American
            Volume  226, Volume 226,  Number 1, January,  1972,  p? ^riC3n'

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                                                4-13
                                                              TURBINE
                                                                            GENEHAIOH
                                          STEAM, 320" F.
MIXTURE
OF STEAM
AND BRINE
FROM
GEOTHERMAL
SOURCE,
  450T.
                          MINERAL
                           BRINE,
                           320" F.
COOLING WATER

            \\
                             MULTISTAGE
                          FLASH EVAPORATOR
                    CONCENTRATED
                        BRINE,
                         120° F.
                                                ELECTRIC
                                                 POWER
                CONDENSER
                                                                   I
                                                                   DESALTED WATER
                                        •^
   EVAPORATED WATER *
     A A A /K A  ^ j>
                                                                                               DRINKING
                                                                                                WATER
                                                 MINERAL-SEPARATING
                                                    EVAPORATORS

lisjsa't *!»&&»»
iIULTJPURPOSE DEVELOPMENT based on geolhermal energy
s being designed by the UN and the government of Chile for a
•eothermal field recently discovered in Chile. In this case the geo-
hermal source produces a mixture of steam and mineral-rich brine.
                                                                                       MINERALS
                                                                                 EXTRACTED FROM BRINE
       The steam and brine are separated, and the steam drives a turbine
       to produce electric power while the brine is put through an evapo-
       rator that concentrates it, thereby producing desalted water. The
       concentrated brine  goes to a separator that  extracts the minerals.
                                              Figure IQ*
         *   from Barnea,  Joseph,  "Geothermal Power," Scientific  American,
             Volume 226, Number 1,  January,  1972, p.  77.

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                                  4-14
                               TABLE I
                       IN-SITU  HEAT RESOURCES
                          (quadrillion Btu)
 Localized hydrothermal systems,
    down to 2 mi. deep                          5.6                56o
 Localized hydrothermal systems,
    down to 6 mi. deep                          2.8              2,800
 High-enthalpy waters, sedimentary
    bas1ns                                    119               64,000
 Magna chambers,  within depths  of
    a few m11es                               119      120,000-400,000
 Low-enthalpy waters,  sedimentary
   bas1ns                                     635              640,000
 Cratonic and platform areas,
    down to 6 mi.                           2,000           20,000,000

 *For  comparison, heat of combustion of  1 bbl 6f oil is 5.8 million Btu
 The recoverable  amounts of heat  are one  to two orders of magnitude lower
 than the in-situ figures shown  in this table.
Source:  National Petroleum Council

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                                  4-15
     (a)   Large areas,  including Federal lands available for prospecting
     (b)   A high success ratio in exploration and drilling (Case 1)
     (c)   Good success  ratio (Case 2)
     (d)   Poor success  ratio (Case 3)
     (e)   Availability  of technology for hot water systems
     A U.S. Geological  Survey report   stated that over 1.83 million acres
in ten Western states are within known geothermal areas, Table II.   An
additional 99 million acres are considered to have "prospective value" for
geothermal steam.  The  USGS requirements for appreciable potential  explor-
ation are:
     (a)   Temperatures  above 150° to 400° F, depending on use and processing
          technology;
     (b)   Under 10,000  feet depth for economic drilling;
     (c)   Rock permeability allowing heat transfer agent to flow at steady,
          high rate; and
     (d)   Sufficient water recharge.

ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION
     There are two types of geothermal systems from which electricial energy
is generated today.  The first type is a vapor-dominated or "Dry Steam"
system.  Both steam and water are present at depth, with steam being volum-
etrically dominant in the hydraulically controlling phase.  As water flows
tdwards the well, it is vaporized.  When the steam reaches the well head, it
is superheated to become "dry" steam.  The "dry" steam is piped directly
into a turbine, where it drives an electric generator.  Exhaust steam is
condensed and the condensate discharged to the surface or reinjected into
the ground.  Examples of vapor dominated systems are the 356 MWe facility
at Larderello, Italy and the 192 MWe combined generation capacity at the
Geysers, California facility.  At depth the temperatures in these reservoirs
are 240° C  (464° F) at pressures of about 530 Ibs. per square inch.  Un-
fortunately, these economically very favorable dry systems appear to be
relatively rare.
     Most geothermal systems appear to be of the hot-water type.  The fluid
at depth is a single phase - water - at temperatures well above surface
boiling, owing to the hydrostatic pressure.  Temperatures in hot water

-------
                                 4-16
                               TABLE II
                   KNOWN GEOTHERMAL RESOURCES AREAS
 ALASKA

 Pilgrim Springs
 Geyser Spring Basin and
    Okmok Caldera
 CALIFORNIA
 The Geysers
 Salton Sea
 Mono-Long Valley
 Calistoga
 Lake City
 Wendel-Amedee
 Coso Hot  Springs
 Lassen
 Glass Mountain
 Sespe Hot Springs
 Heber
 Brawley
 Dunes
 Glamis
 IDAHO
 Yellowstone
 Frazier
MONTANA
Yellowstone
NEVADA
Beowawe
Fly Ranch
Leach Hot Springs
 NEVADA (Cont.)
 Steamboat Springs
 Brady Hot Springs
 Stillwater-Soda Lake
 Darrough Hot Springs
 Gerlach
 Moana Springs
 Double Hot Springs
 Wabuska
 Monte Neva
 Elko  Hot Springs
 NEW MEXICO
 Baca  Location No.l
 OREGON
 Breitenbush Hot Springs
 Crump  Geyser
 Vale Hot  Springs
 Mount  Hood
 Lakeview
 Carey  Hot Springs
 Klamath Falls
 UTAH
 Crater Springs
 Roosevelt
WASHINGTON
Mount  St. Helens

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                                  4-17
reservoirs have been measured as high as 380° C  (716° F)  at Cerro Prieto
in Baja, California.  As the water passes up the well, it partly flashes
to steam.  Steam and water are separated at the surface, with only the
steam passing through to the turbine generator.  The major hot water sys-
tem producing electricity today is Wairakei, New Zealand at 160NW capacity.
Cerro Prieto at 75 MWe is scheduled to go on line this year.
     When one looks at geothermal reserve figures, one must ask whether a
given reserve figure represents heat in the ground, heat at the well head,
heat at  the turbine intake,  or electricity generated.  By no means can one
get all  the heat out of the  ground.  There will be in each field a tempera-
ture below which heat extraction  becomes uneconomic.   Furthermore, not all
the heat above  this  temperature can be  extracted, owing to  local  impermea-
bility  and non-optimum well  spacing.  Second,  in  a hot water  system,  for
example Wairakei,  half  the heat brought up  the well  is in  the water phase
and cannot be run  through the turbine.  And  thirdly,  because  of  the rela-
tively  low pressures and  temperatures of  geothermal  steam,  electric power
Plant  efficiencies are  about 15%, considerably lower than  modern fossil
 fuel  or nuclear plants.
      Present day geothermal plants that use steam directly (single fluid  ^
 conversion)  in the turbine  require a reservoir temperature of at least 180 C.
 At lower temperatures,  the steam flashed is quantitatively insufficient.
 There are several technological breakthroughs that are being actively pur-
 sued today.
      The first involves a potential method for generating electricity from a
 low-temperature hot-water system.  The proposed system doesn't involve
 flashing and theoretically  can use waters down to 100° C and  lower.  Water
 is pumped to the  surface under pressure so that it does not vaporize, and
 its heat is  exchanged with  a  low-boiling point fluid  such as  Iso'-butane.
 The iso-butane vapor drives a turbine, is condensed  and recirculated in  a
 continuous loop.  A variant of this scheme  is to be  tested this year by
 San Diego Gas  and Electric  in the Imperial Valley of California.  The
 Russians have  a similar  pilot plant using  "Freon" at Paratunka  in Kamchatka,
 where  the intake  water is  only 90°  C.  The results  are not known.

-------
                                   4-18
      Another technological breakthrough may lie in the exploitation of
 what are called hot dry rock systems; that is, geothermal systems that
 are hot but lack natural permeability and naturally circulating fluids.
 There are two groups of investigators that are attempting to develop
 such systems.  One group, involving Battelle Northwest, Roger Engineering,
 and Southern Methodist University, plans to put a deep drill hole at the
 heat flow anomaly discovered at Marysville, Montana.   Another group, at
 Los Alamos Scientific Laboratories in New Mexico, is  investigating an area
 of high heat flow just west of the Valles Caldera.
      The basic idea is to drill a hole to a depth of  about 4 km.  and to
 fracture the earth about the end of the hole,  up to 4 km.  in radius.  A second
 hole is drilled to intersect this region.   Then cold  water is pumped down the
 first hole,  is heated,  and rises to the surface with  a temperature of 250° C
 and 80 kg/cm .where it flashes to steam (see  Figure  11).
      Fracturing of the hot rock at depth can be accomplished with cold
 water,  dynamite or nuclear devices.
      In July,  1974, a U.S.  interagency task force reported that geothermal
 electric-power  generating plants could be  producing 30,000 megawatts by
 1985 and 100,000 megawatts by  1990.  This  task force  recommended  that  the
 National Geothermal Energy Research Program of the National Science
 Foundation be  "accelerated on  an orderly basis" so that a  million barrels
 a  day of oil could be saved by  1990 and 3-6 million barrels  per day  by
 the year 2000.

 LAND USE (The Geysers)
      Table III gives  estimates  of  land needed  to support a 1000 megawatt
 plant.   Surprisingly, coal  and  geothermal developments occupy about  the
 same  areas.  However, the coal  plant is essentially a strip mine.   The
 geothermal plant represents far less intensive use.  At Larderello, Italy,
 it  is possible to  grow grapes among the geothermal fields to take advantage
 of  the increased moisture content of the air.  Cattle grazing is being
 experimented with at The Geysers.  The question of desirability of signif-
 icant human habitation close by is more difficult to deal with.  It is also
 clear that if land use is the prime consideration, then the nuclear power
plant deserves high marks.

-------
                                4-19
                            TABLE  III

                        LAND USE  ESTIMATES


1000 Megawatts  of electrical output 30 year  estimated  lift  time
   in square miles


                                Fuel Recovery            Power  Plant

Coal1                              10 -  40                     3/4


Geothermal2                        10 -  15                  Included


Nuclear3                          1/4 -  1/2
 ]Four Corners  Plant,  New Mexico,  Coal Strip Mine


 2The Geysers,  verbal  estimates  from  Union  Oil  Company based  on vapor  type source.


 Converse Uranium Mine,  Environmental  Impact  Statement,  Wyoming  Proposed
  Mendocino Power Plant site (two  units  totalling  2260 megawatts  on one  site)

-------
                                     4-20
       The above estimates of necessary land imply decisions about well
  spacing and allowances for possible additional drilling to sustain pro-
  duction for 30 years.   These are based on company classified information
  of which we have no knowledge.

  LIFE TIME OF THE FIELDS
       Most of the knowledge in this  area is company classified;  however,  we
  do know that the fields at Larderello,  Italy,  have been in operation  for
  nearly  70 years.   Perhaps  one really  finds out by trying.   It is  important
  to realize that  a vapor dominated system gives little warning of  impending
  depletion.   There is more  heat than water  and  the steam pressure  remains
  high until the very end.
       It may be possible to  inject more water to rejuvenate  the field.
  Right now only about 20% of the condensed  steam is reinjected.  The rest
  is evaporated to  cool the outlet of the  turbines  to improve the thermo-
  dynamic efficiency.

 LAM) SUBSIDENCE AND EARTHQUAKES
      These are not big problems  around the Geysers.  The pressure remains
 constant until the field is depleted and the rocks are not subject to new
 stresses until then.   In a hot water system, removing water has  caused land
 subsidence (Wairakei in New Zealand).   There have been noticeable increases
 in microearthquakes around The Geysers and the  meaning of this is not  clear.

 COOLING  PROBLEMS
    ^ Nature provides  the geothennal  steam at 179°  C compared with about
 500° C steam used  in fossil fuel plants.   Thus,  the thertnodynamic  effic-
 iency of  the geothennal  plant  is less  -  15% being  typical.   To achieve
 even this  efficiency it  is  necessary to cool  the exhaust  of  the turbines
 to  reduce  the back pressure  to almost  a vacuum.  This requires cooling
 towers.  Fortunately, there  is enough water from the steam to supply the
 towers.  The  potential for atmospheric modification is present and has not
 been  studied  in detail; however,  the plants are distributed over  a large
 area and locating  the cooling towers in places where there are stronger
winds should aid in the dispersion of the heated air.

-------
                                  4-21
POTENTIAL AIR QUALITY DEGRADATION
     The sulfur as H2S is perhaps the most significant problem health-
wise and this is reflected in very stringent air quality standards.   Table
IV reveals that the Geyser's geothermal steam is worse than an oil-gas
fired plant.  The Geyser output is nearly pure steam with only 0.55% H2S.
Unfortunately, the thermodynamics are poor and we must use 18.2 Ibs. of
steam to produce a kilowatt hour, or about 0.1 lb. of sulfur per kilo-
watt hour.
     At an oil fired plant, approximately 0.5 - 0.6 Ibs. of oil will do
the same job.  Thus, the geothermal steam is equivalent to 1.8 - 2.3%
sulfur content oil - Table IV.  This  is high sulfur fuel by present
standards.
     The potential for  solving  this problem is  somewhat better than at
a coal or  oil fired  plant.  First, the non-condensable gases  are already
collected  separately.   Thus they  can  be dealt with.   The portion of the
gas  evaporating  from the cooling  towers is  harder  to  deal  with, though.
Secondly,  the reinjection well  provides a ready disposal site, back into
 the  earth.   Reinjection was  initially begun to  prevent  the slight amount
 of boron from contaminating  the surface waters.   At present time there
 appears little risk of  substantial surface  water contamination.

 EARLY ESTIMATES
      The residence time of  the sulfur compounds in the air was considered
 to be less than a week (The Sulfur Cycle, Science, 175, 587 (1972)).
 Recent studies indicate that the time is proportional to many factors and
 is being reviewed and studied.  Thus, while the problem is serious and
 must be dealt with, one should maintain some perspective.   The problem
 most directly affects people living near the geothermal areas and these
 areas, to date, are not thickly  settled.

 NOISE
      Measurements of noise levels as they existed at The  Geysers on March 11,
  1973 are  given  in Table V.  Conclusions  depend very much  on  the reference
  frame of  the observer.   They are not much above  those found  in relatively
  quiet residential neighborhoods. It would  seem  that the  noise of  routine

-------
                               4-22
                               TABLE IV



                     COMPARATIVE WASTE PRODUCTS
 In tons  per day  for  1000 Megawatts  electrical  output
Substance
 H2°
C°
n-n %. c=,«-
ui i & bas





    8,400






   16,400
Sulfur Compounds






Nitrogen Oxides






Radioactive Wastes

                                    .23
                                  i-7
                                                  ~
                                                  Geysers
                                                 217,000
                                                   1,700
                                                     260
                                                                Nuclear
                                                                 0*26

    are .ethane and a.onia.
                             a'ia1vs'is  and
                    nuclear power plant-   Hendor-l

-------
                              4-23




                              TABLE V


                  NOISE LEVELS AROUND THE GEYSERS
Measurements on 3 - 11 - 73
                                                 Level in decibels
Location of Measurement:                          "A" weighting
Outside Units 5 & 6 - inside
 protective fence                                       73

Geyser Resort approximately
 .5 mile from field                                     63

1.5 miles across valley                                 53
For comparison the following are offered:

Valley not associated with geysers
 approximately 7 miles distant                          43

Near Stream in above valley                             63

Berkeley, east side of campus,
 evening of 3-2-73                                      60

Vallejo, residential area, early
 evening of 3-2-73                                      58

Home, 5850 Henning Road10
 Sebastopol, evening of 3-11-73                         43
       Dunning, Sonoma State College, Sonoma California, private
conversation.

-------
                                   4-24
power generation can be reduced to almost arbitrarily low levels.

LONG RANGE QUESTIONS
     These are largely concerned with effects too subtle to show up now,
because of the small scale of activities or the long time scale over which
they act.  Among them are field life time, earthquake possibilities, subtle
effects on the water in tables, and possible meteorological effects.  Many
of these questions will be best resolved by careful monitoring of the
effects in question while continuing geothermal development.   Constraints,
as suggested by the NPC, are listed in Table VI.

-------
                                  4-25
Geothermal Target
Current
Constraints
                                                Subsequent
                                                Constraints
                  Outer
                  Contingency
Localized hydrothermal
  systems down to 2 mi,
  deep

Localized hydrothermal
  systems down to 6 mi
  deep

High-enthalpy water,
  sedimentary basins

Magma chambers within
  a depth of a few
  mi 1 es

Low-enthalpy waters,
  sedimentary basins

Cratonic and platform
  areas, down to 6  mi.
Leasing,
exploration,
economi cs

Economics
Exploration,
 deep drilling

Exploration,
R&D
Magmas

R&D  power
generation

R&D
Plowshare
Small resource
 base
Leasing,
exploration
Economics


Economi cs
 Exploration,
 economics

 Economics
Air and water
 pollution
Air and water
 pollution
Brine disposal
 and utilization

Unknown
 Radioactive
 pollution
 Sourcet  National  Petroleum Council
                                 TABLE VI

             CONSTRAINTS TO GEOTHERMAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT

-------
                      4-26
~ 15,000 ft
^


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4_ **7
o o
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A
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^

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•
4

}{','
l''i '
, 1
1 ' I
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•




M^V*^ Vertically Oriented
1 ) Cracks
Produced By
/ 1 , X Hydraulic Fracturing
''/


                            Thermal  Region,
                              ^300° C
  Figure 11:  Dry Rock Geothermal Energy System
          by Hydraulic Fracturing
        Source:   AEG,  1973 See reference 15.

-------
                                     4-27
                                 BIBLIOGRAPHY
1)  Muffler  L.J.P., "Geothermal Resources and their Utilization," Heat
    Flow Symposium Geological Society of America, Portland, Oregon,
    March 1973.

2)  White  Donald E., "Characteristics of Geothermal Resources and Pro-
    blems'of Utilization," in Kruger and Otte (eds.), 1973, Geothermal
    Energy: Resources Production, Stimulation: Stanford University Press,
    June 1973.

3)  Senate Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs, "Geothermal Energy
    Resources and Research," serial 92-31, June 1972.

4)  Hickel, Walter  J., Geothermal Energy, Final Report of  the Geothermal
    Resources Research Conference, Battelle Seattle Research Center
    Seattle, Washington, September 18-20, 1972; sponsored  by the National
    Science Foundation (RANN).

5)  Muffler, L.J.P., "Geothermal Research in  the U.S. Geological  Survey.
    Talk presented  at the Geothermal Symposium held at the 42nd Annual
    International Meeting of the Society  of Exploration Geophysicists,
    Anaheim, California, November  30,  1972.

6)  Muffler, L.J.P., "United States Mineral Resources: Geothermal Resources,"
    U.S. Geological Survey  Prof. Paper 820.

 7)  White,  Donald  E., "Geothermal  Energy,"  Geological Survey  Circular 519,
    First  Printing, Washington, 1965.

 8)  Hamilton,  R.M., 77,11,2081, Journal of  Geophysical Research.

 9)   "The Sulfur Cycle,"  Science 175,  587 (1972).

10)   Dunning,  John,  "Federal Power Commission National Power Survey,  1973."

11)   Bullard,  E., 1973 "Geothermal Energy, UNESCO, Paris,  France.

12)   Lackenhruck, H.H.  (1970) "Crystal Temperature and Heat Production,"
     L. Geophys. Res. Vol. 75,  pp. 3291-3300.

13)   U.S. Geological Survey, Circular 647 "Classification  of Public Lands
     Valuable for Geothermal Steam and Associated Geothermal Resources,
     Reston, Virginia 22092.

14)  Muffler, L.J.P., and White, D.E. "Geothermal Energy,"  The Science
     Teacher 39(3), 1972, p. 40.

15)  Atomic Energy  Commission  (1973).   "The Nation's  Energy Future; a
     Report to  Richard M. Nixon, President of the United States,   sub-
     mitted by  Dixie Lee Ray,  Chairman, U.S.  Government Printing  Office.

-------

-------
                              5-1                 James W. Meyer
                                                  December 1, 1974
                            Monograph No. 5
                         MIT Energy Laboratory
                          HYDROELECTRIC POWER

     In mid-1974 the total conventional hydroelectric power developed in
the contiguous United States averaged 260 billion kilowatt-hours annually
from a capacity of 55,000 megawatts.   Nearly one-half of this capacity
and more than one-half of the generation is in the pacific states,
Washington, Oregon and California.
     Nearly 7,000 megawatts of capacity are now under development, 90%
of which is in the pacific states.
     A review of potential sites for hydroelectric developments with
capacities of 100 megawatts or more,  or additions of 25 megawatts or
more found 44 new sites and 26 potential additions that might be completed
through 1983.  Of this total of 70 sites, only one is in New England:
Dickey-Lincoln School.  The expected installed capacity of Dickey-Lincoln
School would be 830 megawatts with an average annual generation of just
over one million megawatt hours.  Friends of the St. John aver that "The
Dickey-Lincoln Project will never solve the energy crisis because the
project is not big enough.  Nor can it be made bigger or be operated for
a longer period daily, because the water supply is too limited for large
or larger operation.  New units, such as Boston Edison's Mystic No. 7 or
Pilgrim No. 1, each produce about four times as much as Dickey-Lincoln
would.  Thus, the dams cannot take the place of new nuclear or fossil-
fueled power plants."
     Forty existing hydro facilities could be expanded to add 12,700
megawatts of capacity.  Most of these facilities use all of the available
water now so that expanding capacity could only be done at the cost of
reduced operating time.
     The number of favorable sites available for conventional development
is limited.  There are pros and cons for the development of the remaining
potential such as the production of power without consuming fuel versus
the replacement of flowing streams with reservoirs and changing the
character of a scenic valley.  It might be mentioned that because of their

-------
                                   5-2
 ability to pick up load and change the rate of output quickly, hydro-
 electric plants are particularly suited for providing peak and reserve
 capacity for utility systems.
      Pumped storage is closely related to hydro power in that a reser-
 voir at a height to provide a  head is kept full using excess capacity
 from fossil fueled or nuclear  plants during off peak periods so that
 hydrogeneration from this storage could be used to meet peak load demands.
      Pumped storage also presents controversial issues.   Consolidated
 Edison Company of New York has been involved in a decade of proceedings
 and  litigation over its proposed 2000 megawatt hydroelectric facility in
 the  Hudson River highlands,  the (Storm King) "Cornwall Project."
      As of May 1974,  the total developed pumped storage capacity  in  the
 contiguous United States amounts to a little over 8,000 megawatts.
      There is  only one sizeable tidal power project in the  world  —  the
 240-megawatt Ranee project in  France.   Passamaquoddy Bay is the most
 favorable  site in the  United States and Canada.   Studies of the project
 in the 1960s indicated that the contemplated 500 megawatt plant was  not
 economically justified.   Even  if increasing costs of power  from alterna-
 tive  sources and  improvements  in the techniques  of  construction result in
 economic feasibility,  substantial environmental  issues would have to be
 resolved such  as  the flooding  of valleys, the  relocation  of populations
 and wildlife,  alteration  of ground water  tables  and  changes to  drainage
 patterns of stream and river flows.  Tidal  projects affect  shipping, fish-
 ing, and coastal  ecology  and pumped  storage  has  the problem of  a widely
 varying waterline with the ebb and flow of  electric power demand.  Detrac-
 tors claim that it  lessens the pumped storage pond's value as a recrea-
 tional site, and at low water is an eyesore.

                             BIBLIOGRAPHY
1.  Staff Report on the Role of Hydroelectric Developments in the Nation's
    Power Supply, Federal Power Commission, Bureau of Power, May 1974.
2.  Luther J.  Carter, "Con Edison:  Endless Storm King Dispute Adds  to its
    Troubles ,  Science, Volume  184,  pp.  1353-1358, 28 June 1974.

-------
                                R -,                   fanes W.  Meyer
                                0-1                   December  1,  1974
                            Monograph No. 6
                         MIT Energy Laboratories
                               OIL SHALE

     For years the hundreds of  billions  of barrels of oil equivalent
locked in several basins of the Rocky Mountain's Green River Formation in
the tri-state area of Utah, Wyoming,  and Colorado has looked like an un-
exploited (perhaps unexploitable) bonanza of fossil fuel.  Oil shale is
neither oil nor shale, strictly speaking, the "oil" being an organic poly-
mer called kerogen, the "shale" a marIstone-type inorganic component.
Cowboys used to burn oil shale in their campfires and some hapless early
settlers of the region attempted, with disastrous results, to build fire-
places with the attractive grey-tan stone.
     In the Piceance Creek Basin, Colorado, there are an estimated 160-
billion barrels of shale reserves near the surface; of which 34-billion
barrels are considered recoverable.
     Most processes  for recovering oil from oil  shale involve heating  to
decompose the  kerogen to volatile oil and gas followed by  condensation
and  recovery  of  the  v*™rs.  Most oil shale in  the western formations  con-
tain at least  25  gallons of  oil per  ton  of shale.
      The three major components of shale oil production  are mining,
crushing, and retorting.   The  Oil Shale  Corporation  (TOSCO)  has  operated
 a 1,000-ton per  day  semiworks  plant  near Grand  Valley, Colorado, to
develop the TOSCO II process.   Commercial design is  now  underway.   Yields
 of the TOSCO II  process with shale  from the Piceance Basin were  33 gallons
 per ton of  shale.  Shale oil differs from petroleum in that it contains a
 higher proportion of nitrogen and oxygen.
      The U.S. Bureau of Mines' Laramie, Wyoming Research Center  has experi-
 mented with in situ extraction of oil from shale.  In the experiment shale
 was fractured with nitroglycerin, ignited and allowed to burn six weeks,
 resulting in recovery of 190 barrels of shale oil.  Gerald Dinneen, Direc-
 tor of Research, believes oil shale retorting and in situ extraction may
 be  the most economical.  Experiments thus far have been on far  too small a
 scale  to permit meaningful extrapolation of economic factors to large scale
                                   6-1

-------
                                     6-2
   commercial  production.
       Garrett Research and Development Co., research arm of Occidental
   Petroleum Corporation, has reported a test project for in situ recovery
   of shale oil on a 4,000-acre tract on the southern edge oflhl Piceance
   Basin.  The process involves some mining, large-scale rock breakage, and
   retorting in place.  Total recovery of oil has not been disclosed but
   consistent pumping of 25-30 barrels per day has been mentioned.   The
  Pilot plant is on a very small scale but the Garrett firm believes com-
  mercial scale is feasible within 3 years with intensive development
  effort.  The problems of expanding the scale of the plant  have to be
  fully explored  and when  they  are uncovered and solved,  3 years is likely
  to be quite  optimistic if . 40,000 barrels per day plant is  to become
  operational.  The technique does  have promise  of producing  shale oil at
  lower cost than mining and surface processing,  and it does require  less
  water.   It is the  only one of several In  situ techniques for which  much
  success  has  been claimed.
      Morton M.  Wilton, President, TOSCO  expects the completion of  the
  fir.. commercial oil shale couple, in the sprl»8 of ne« year.  The plant
 v111 produce 46,000 barrels per day of refined products (eouivalent to
 51,000 barrels of crude).  Wmston estimated  that 600-blllion barrel, of
 shale oil vere recoverable from the Creen River .option.   „ also stated
 that first generation commercial plant complexes can be commenced a.
 early as 1979.
      Fred L.  Hartley,  Union Oil  Company,  has reported a  process that will
 recover 821 of the  thermal energy in the  shale in the form  of  syncrude or
 high BTU gas.  The  three main problems facing  oil shale  development  are:
               1.   Political
               2.   Financial
               3.   Water
^availability  could limit shale oil production to 1-^illion barrels

     Hartley reported estimated costs for a 100,000 barrel per day shale
oil complex for the years, 1970,  1974,  and 1980, and the  per barrel price of
oil based on a 15% return  on investment:

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                                  6-3
     1970            $ 525-million            $ 5.00/bbl
     1974            $ 790-million            $ 7.00/bbl
     1980            $1400-milllon            $11.50/bbl
     In face of such huge investments to produce a product equivalent to
that produced elsewhere in the world for as little as 25c - 75
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                                   '~                    James W.  Meyer
                                                        December  1,  1974
                                                        Amended June,  1975
                                    ,  „   ..             William J.  Jones
                            Monograph No. 7
                         MIT Energy Laboratory
            SOLID WASTE FOR THE GENERATION OF ELECTRIC POWER
     Solid waste is an ubiquitous, self-renewing energy source concen-
trated in our population centers.  Americans produce between 200 and 300
million tons of solid waste a year, around a ton for every man, woman and
child in the country, enough to cover the entire state of New Hampshire
with a layer six inches deep.  Estimated on the basis of population, New
Hampshire accounts for 700,000 tons/year.  We dispose of 90% of our waste
in land fills, 8% in incinerators, and 2% by other means.  Urban solid
waste consists typically of 40-45% paper, 20-25% organic materials, and
the remainder, 30-40% metals and glass.  Such solid waste has an energy
content of from 4,500 to 5,500 Btus per pound.
     Most major metropolitan areas are running out of places to put it
all.  New York City for example, expects to overflow its available dump-
ing grounds in the next several years.  More than twenty cities are look-
ing for other solutions.
     The Union Electric Company in St. Louis has been processing and fir-
ing a mix of solid waste with coal to produce 125 MWe electricity.  The
proportion of solid waste is 15-20% of the heating value of coal or
400 to 600 tons per day.  The heating value of coal averages 11,500 Btu/lb,
the heating value of the waste 4,600 Btu/lb.  This experimental prototype
has been in operation since mid-1972.  A new $70-million plant is being
built which will generate about 6% of its power from solid waste and will
draw trash from St. Louis and six adjoining Missouri and Illinois counties.
The project is scheduled to be in operation by mid-1977 and could save
Union Electric up to $10-million a year in fuel costs.  Annual operating
costs of the facility are expected to be $ll-million.
     Garrett Research and Development Company, La Verne, California has
developed a solid waste pyrolysis process which produces from each ton of
refuse almost 1 barrel of oil, 140 pounds of ferrous metals, 120 pounds of
glass, 160 pounds of char, and varying amounts of medium energy gas (400 to
500 Btu per scf) .  A 200-ton-a-day demonstration plant handles all the
solid wastes produced by Escondido and San Marcos, California.  Oil from the
plant will be sold to the San Diego Gas and Electric Company.  Garrett

                                    7-1

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                                   7-2

 estimated in 1972 that a full-scale, 200-ton-per-day plant to process
 wastes from a city of 500,000 would cost about $12-million.
      Monsanto Enviro-Chem Systems, St. Louis, Missouri, has operated a
 35-ton-per-day pyrolysis plant which served as a prototype for a 1000-
 tons-per-day plant for the City of Baltimore (population 900,000).   Two
 waste heat boilers will produce steam for Baltimore Gas and Electric
 Company; 200,000 pounds per hour of steam for each 1000 ton-per-day
 boiler.  The project cost is just under $15-million and anticipated
 operating costs are roughly $6-per-ton.
      The Nashville Thermal Transfer Corporation,  Nashville, Tennessee
 (population 500,000) is operating a district heating and cooling system
 on solid waste.   Two units, each able to handle 860 tons-per-day are
 being installed in the $16.5-million total system which includes distri-
 bution.  Presently 200-tons-per-day are being burned to produce  200,000
 pounds of steam per hour.   Both steam and chilled water are distributed
 in a four-pipe  system.
      The City of Seattle (population over 500,000)  has  made an exhaustive
 study of the disposal and/or utilization of  550,000 tons-per-year of solid
 waste.   As a result  of  the  study,  a recommendation  was  made that Seattle's
 solid waste be  converted to methanol at an estimated rate of about  40-
 million gallons  a  year.   It was  suggested that methanol would be an ideal
 fuel for a gas  turbine powered  electrical plant.  Methanol  is also  a good
 fuel for use in  fuel  cells.
      Columbia University workers have studied the problem of the economic
 utilization  of municipal refuse  for  the City of New York in a National
 Science Foundation  (RANN) sponsored program.  It was  concluded that, for
 New  York City, the Union Carbide Oxygen Refuse Converter would be the best
 choice.  The Union Carbide Corporation is currently proceeding with plans
 to erect a 200-ton-per-day demonstration in Charleston, West Virginia to be
 operated with mixed municipal refuse supplied by that municipality.   The
 disposal of de-watered sewage sludge by pyrolysis can also be evaluated.
     Parson and Whittemore Inc. is to build a $44.6-million, 2000-tons-per-
day recycling plant for Hempstead, L.I., a city of 800,000 people.  Long
Island Lighting  Company will buy combustibles to produce 225 megawatts of

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                                  7-3
electricity.
     Characteristics of these planned and operating facilities is that
they are designed for populations of 500,000 or more in a reasonably com-
pact area.  This facilitates the collection and eases the transportation
costs of solid waste.  Energy costs of collection and transporation rise
quickly for dispersed populations.  Many of these urban centers have pop-
ulations equal to or greater than the entire State of New Hampshire.

     If we base our estimates on population, the Cities of Portsmouth and
Dover produce about 50,000 tons of solid waste a year.  About 10,000 BTUs
are required to produce a kilowatthour of electric energy in a conventional
steam plant.  If the solid waste used has an average energy content of
5,000 BTUs per pound or 10-million BTUs per ton, one megawatt hour of
electric energy can be produced from each ton of solid waste.  If it were
possible to collect, transport and produce all the solid waste from Ports-
mouth and Dover, for example, we could produce 50,000 megawatt hours per
year.  It would be necessary that the plant operate all of the time and
it would be possible to store and use waste independently of day-to-day
variations  in amount and kinds of waste.
     A 1200 megawatt electric generating plant, operating only half the
time, produces over  5 million megawatt hours a year.  To produce an
equivalent  amount of electric energy from solid waste, we would have to
derive it from an aggregate population of 5 million people	about  the pop-
ulation of  the State of Massachusetts.  From a consideration of energy,
these conversion methods are severely restricted by  the  limited amount of
solid wastes  available and  transportation costs and problems from over the
entire  region to  the central bulk generating plant.
     For  urban regions and  smaller  sized urban centers, waste must be
 considered  more  as  sources  of supplementary fuels  than alternative
 total  resources.

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                                     7-4

                                 REFERENCES
Wisely, Homer & Shifrin, Inc., "City of St. Louis - Union Electric Co
     Energy Recovery Process Solid Waste as a Boiler Fuel", The US/Japan
     Energy Conservation Seminar, San Antonio, Texas, February 1974.

Hammond, Allen L.  William D. Metz, and Thomas H. Maugh II, "Energy and

                                       for the Advance»ent °
            " '     P°lution Free ^tem for the Economic Utilization of
                                              "'  columbia
                                               -  Its  Local

                        fr01"  S°lld Waste"«  Power Engineering, Volume  78,
15 March
                                 J° Frank Be^eisel, "The Economics of

                           MunlciPal So1" Waste", Science, Volume 183,

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                                    8-1                     James  W.  Meyer
                                                            December  1,  1974
                               Monograph No. 8

                            MIT Energy Laboratory
             ENERGY  FROM  FORESTS AND PLANTATIONS, AND OTHER BIOMASS

     The first source of  "artificial"  energy was wood.   It furnished

heat and light and,  indirectly, power.  Trees,  bushes,  straw and farm

by-products still  provide fuel  in  a sizeable portion of the world.  Its
                                                    ^   V
use is mostly limited to  single family units.

                                                     i

Wood as a Fuel for Electric Power

     Much to the surprise of many people, New England has increasing

numbers of acres of  its land area in  forests.  A century ago, Massa-

chusetts was two-thirds cleared and one-third forest -- today the re-

verse  is true.  Seedlings quickly spring up  in abandoned clearings

which  in time  become dense second growth timber  stands.  The Forest  Re-

source Report  Number 20, October 1973 gave  the  following  figures  for wooded

land in the  states  of New England:

                                        Acres  of           Forested
                                        Land Area            Area
                                       (in  thousands)       (in  thousands)
Maine
New Hampshire
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
19,797
5,781
5,935
5,013
671
3,116
17,748
5,131
4,391
3,520
433
2,186
 Source:  U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service,
          Forest Resource Report Number 20, October 1973.

 The Forest Survey Project of the Northeastern Forest Experiment Station

 of the U.S.D.A. Forest Service has estimated the volume of hardwoods

 grown each year that  is not used for other forest products which could

 be consumed  in each state as firewood without depleting the  forests, that is,

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                                       8-2

    growth and harvesting would be equal.  These estimates are shown in the
    following table:
                                          Estimated cords
                                           of hardwood
                                         available for
                                            fuelwood                Jons
                                         On thousands^        (in thousands)
                Maine                         o^o
                                              jjo                    845
                New Hampshire                 727                  ,
                Vermont                       215                   '537
                Massachusetts                 499
                Rhode Island                   KC;
                                                                    1 fi?
                Connecticut                    442
   If weed trees, culls and tops and limbs of  trees harvested for other pur-
   poses are Included, the estimate about doubles for each state.  The heat
   value of wood varies from about 27 million Btu/cord for the best dry hard-
  wood to a little over 10 million Btu/cord for the poorer green wood.   Thus
  the best wood has a heat value  equivalent per cord to just under 200  gallons
  of fuel  oil.   If all the available fuelwood  In New Hampshire were  to  be used
  under boilers  for generating  electric power, about  15 trillion Btu/year would
  be produced  (assuming 20 million Btu/cord).  Further  assuming a  heat  rate  for
  the power generating plant  of ,0,000  Btu/k«h,  1.5 million megawatt-hours per year
  would be produced.   This is equivalent to a  200 megawatt station operated year
  round.  Clearly the  task of cutting, chipping and transporting this much wood-
  fuel from all over the state of New Hampshire would be a prodigious task.
      Forests are like any other  agricultural  product.   The  soil must  furnish
 nutrients in order for the  trees  to grow.   !„ an  undisturbed  forest, leaves
 and dead  trees  remain on  the ground and by  their  decay return the nutrients
 to the soil.  Forest harvesting will require  that  the  nutrients,  lost  by re-
 moval  of  the wood  to a generating plant, would  have to be made up by co^er-
 cial fertilizers,  which currently require petrochemicals.
     Szego and Hemp") have made an extensive study of the potential for
energy forests and fuel plantations and estimated  that 400 megawatts of
electric power could be continuously supplied  from a land area  of  400

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                                       8-3
square miles managed and harvested  in  a manner  similar to southern pulp
mill plantations.   In their 1973 paper, they estimated the capital costs
  i       'i
for the plantation and power station at about $400/kW.  A portion is
attached as Appendix I,   Sidney Katell, referee of Szego and  Kemp's paper
independently estimated the cost of southern pine wood fuel as  being  equivalent
to $25 per ton coal.  He based this estimate on the following assumptions  for
a forest in a southern state (e.g.  Georgia):
              1.  Production:  5 tons  per acre-year
              2.  Land cost:  $50 per acre
              3.  Harvesting cost:   $9 per ton
              4.  Interest plus taxes:  8.6% of land cost.
These assumptions are admittedly optimistic.
     The Green Mountain Power Corporation of Burlington, Vermont is considering
the establishment of a  small 4000  kilowatt wood-burning electric generating
facility as  a pilot project  to  test the feasibility of procuring wood chips as
a fuel.  Satisfactory results could lead  to  the construction of a larger wood-
fired  generation  facility.   The following sets forth the basic assumptions
concerning wood supply,  costs,  and other  procurement considerations which led
to  the initiation of this  feasibility investigation.
      Vermont is 73  percent forested.  At  its current rate of growth,  there  is
an  annual  growth  surplus after harvests of  1.8 million tons  of wood.   It  takes
 about 7.5  tons  of wood each year to fuel  a  one-kilowatt electric generating
 plant.  There should be, therefore, adequate annual  surplus  growth to fuel  a
 plant one-half as large as the Vermont Yankee  nuclear powered  550  megawatt
      ^eardsley, William, "Wood—An Electric Generating Fuel  in Vermont—A
       Procurement Point of View", Green Mountain Power Corporation, private
       communication, June 12, 1974.

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                                      8-4
electricity generating plant.
     In theory, and perhaps  with  improved forest management, Vermont's entire
electricity requirements could be derived from wood.  With  the current price
of fossil fuel  hovering between $1.50  -  $2,00 per million Btu, a competitive
price for delivered green wood chips would be $10.50 per ton ($26.00 per cord,
a stack of wood 4 Ft.  X 4 Ft.  X 8 Ft.)
     The cost and benefit implications of a wood-fired electric generating ;;
plant for Vermont's forest industry, economy and environment will be inter-
nalized as part of the feasibility study.
     The power plants operating on this type of fuel would have to be
situated at "mine mouth."  This is almost  as restrictive as that re-
quired for location of an ocean thermal  powered electric utility.
     In view of the increasing awareness and concern with the political
aspect, availability, reliability of supply, costs and the environmental and
ecological effects of the fossil fuels,  the conversion of organic materials
into more readily useable fuel forms (like gas and light distillates)
merits serious study.
     In the conventional combustion (fire) process wood, straw or other
vegetable matter is heated until it begins to release gases which burn
and, in the burning process, heats other portions of the fuel  so that
more gases are released to be burned.
     When organic material decays it yields useful by-products.  The kinds
of by-products depend upon the conditions  under which decay takes place.
Decay can be aerobic  (with oxygen) or anaerobic (without oxygen).  Any kind
of organic matter can be broken down either way.  Methane gas, an easily

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                                8-5
transported fuel, is one by-produc't of anaerobic decay.   The efficiency
and rate of decay can be optimized artificially.  The kinds of organic
material used as "feedstock" also governs the quantity of gas produced
per unit of organic matter.                                          .
     The utilization of organic wastes for the production of methane
should  reduce the magnitude of the waste problem and be economically
attractive.(1)   Taking  the present gas consumption as 2.2 x 10   ft /yr.,
 the total  current gas  demand  could be met by processing 2.2 X TO9
 tons  of organic wastes  through  anaerobic digesters.  Conversions  of the
 dry organic fraction of the solid waste  generated  annually would  yield
 25 to 40 percent of the gas demand.
      Not all of this can be collected since the available organic wastes
 are not sufficient to satisfy the current gas demand; it is necessary to
 consider, as an alternate or supplementary feedstock, the growth of
 crops  specifically for their energy content.  This results in a system
 which  converts solar energy  to methane via photosynthesis and anaerobic
 formation.
      The  Solar Energy  Task  Force report for the Project  Independence
  Blueprint includes a  section on  byconversion  to  fuels  which  can be
  paraphrased as follows:
               The overall  goal  of the byconversion  to  fuels program
           is to produce as much as 15 x 1015 BTU's (2.5 x 109 barrels
           of oil equivalent) in the year 2000 from energy crops (ter-
           restrial and marine) and from organic wastes (urban solid
           waste and agricultural residues).
        To  achieve this  level  of production, an accelerated program  of  R & D
   and subsidized early  commercial  production facilities may be required as
   the estimated price of energy from  these organic sources  is not  expected
   to  be less than about $2.00 per/BTUCuring this  period.   This price  does

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                                          8-6
   take  into  account credits  for by-products  in the  form of  food  products
   and chemical feedstocks, which may be obtained in the production of
   biomass.
        Energy planning systems are not expected to become economically
   attractive until the costs of alternative energy sources exceed the
   equivalent of $11  per barrel  of oil.
        There must be a sequence of  steps  before a  reliable and economically
   viable system can be established.
       Deriving clean  fuels from biomass or waste organic  materials
   is the only "renewable" method of fuel production  known.   Two Important
  considerations are present.  Flrst.the number ofposslble  forms of energy
  crops, and conversion processes 1s very large.   Second, the degree of
  development of the different production and conversion processes varies
  greatly.
       The  Project Independence  Blueprint  study contains a  schedule  showing
  the anticipated  schedule  for the research and development program which
  will  lead  to Proof-of-Concept.  They are reproduced as Appendix  II.
      An R  &  D program has to be formulated and completed  that will de-
  velop the  technology  base for large scale fuel and energy producing
  systems for:
      a)   producing significant  economic quantities of biomass
          (feedstock  plantation)
     b)   converting this biomass  into  useful  fuels and energy
     The conversion processes will  have two environmental  consequences
Conversion  of urban solid waste and agricultural residues  (particularly
feedlot wastes) will reduce many of the problems associated  with disposal
of these materials. Additionally, the residues from conversion of agricul-
tural  residues and energy crops  may prove to-be useful  as organic

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                                       8-7
fertilizers, soil  conditioners or as animal  food supplements.
     On the other hand, conversion of urban  solid waste may produce
waste water and filter cake with little utility and some potential
disposal problems.
     The biomass stock is low in sulfur content and most other pollutants
characteristic of fossil fuels.  Non-point source pollutants associated
with agricultural operations may present some problems, especially with
regard to  fertilizers  and pesticides.  The large  use  of irrigation
water  presents  salinization  problems.

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                                      8-8
                            REFERENCES
(1)     Szego, George C.  and Kemp, Clinton C., "Energy Forests and
        Fuel  Plantations", Chemtech, May 1973.
(3)      Green  Mountain  Power Corporation, Burlington, Vermont.

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w to
3 C
W
Ol
I!
o 5
o o
   -
   m
   B)
   3
    0)
    o
LAHO REQUIREMENTS IN SQUARE MILES

                 •S
                 §
                                                                            o
                                                                            I—I
                                                                            x
                                                                                                                00

                                                                                                                us

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                                                   8-10
                                      APPENDIX  I
 Land requirements

   The land requirements for energy plantations are
 manageable. This conclusion is supported by a com-
 parison with the land bases that support kraft pulp
 mills in the South.
   At the  end of 1971 there were 26 kraft pulp mills
 in the South having a daily production capacity of
 1000 tons or more of pulp (23). Assume that
   —1.7 cords of softwood  are required per ton  of
 P«lp
   —pulp mills operate 350 days a year
   —75  percent  of  their pulp wood requirement  is
 supplied as round wood (23)
  —softwood growth yields are; on a sustained basis,
 about 2 cords per acre per year (a relatively high av-
erage yield), then about 350 square miles of pulpwood
forest will thus be required to support a 1000 ton per
day kraft  pulp mill. An area about this big will sup-
port  a -lr!|) megawatt electric generating station even if
only  0.4 percent  of the solar energy incident on it is
converted  to fuel value, as the estimate in the  next
paragraph indicates.
  Assume that the thermal efficiency of a generating
station fired with plant fuel is about :if)  percent. This
efficiencv,  which is low for modern  stations  fired
with <:•••.>)ventional fossil fuels, is about  equivalent to
10,000 Rtu per kilowatt-hour. Further  assume  (hat
the load factor of the station is 55 percent on an an-
 nual basis (approximately  the national average).
 Under these conditions the  energy plantation  land
 area required to supply the  fuel for the station will
 be about 370 square miles. The energy plantation re-
 quired to support a 1000 MVV base load generating
 station (75 per cent load factor) at various insolation
 rates and conversions of solar energy to fuel value will
 be about as shown in Figure 1.
   It may. thus be concluded that, since the area for
 an 'energy  plantation adequate to supply a generat-
 ing station of a capacity in line  with many modern
 stations is of the same order  of magnitude as the
 land areas presently being managed for each of two
 dozen large pulp mills, areas of  similar size can be
 managed for energy plantations without serious diffi-
 culty.    .                                     	

 Economics

  Adoption of energy- plantations  as a significant
source of fuel will depend in part on the cost of the fuel
produced, and in part on the convenience with which
it can be utilized. The cost of producing fuel value in
an energy plantation will depend on:
  —the yield of fuel per unit area per unit time (i.e..
onBtuper acre per year), and
  —the cost  incurred per unit plantation area per
unittime (i.e., dollars per acre per year).
 (1)   Szego,  George C   and Kemp, Clinton.C..  "Energy Forests and
       Fuel  Plantations"  Chemtech,  May  1973.            forests and

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                                        8-11
                                  APPENDIX II
             SUMMARY OF KEY MILESTONES AND RELATED DECISION POINTS
         FY
      MILESTONE
                                                      DECISION POINTS
         75
Initiate POCE: Process for
Producing Methane Gas from
Urban Solid Wastes (3)
                   Initiate Total System
                   Studies of Promising Energy
                   Farming Concepts (1,2)
Final Review Engineering
Systems Study Evaluation
of Process

Evaluation of Response to
RFP and Award Contract (3)
         76
Initiate Total System Study
of Promising Agri-Waste
Energy Conversion Oppor-
tunities (2)

Initiate POCE Design Studies
for Agri-Waste Energy Con-
version Systems  (4)
Review Panel Evaluation
of Previous Engineering
Systems Studies  (2)
                                                  As above plus Interim
                                                  Results of Total System
                                                  Study  (4)
     77, 78, 79
Complete POCE:  Process for      FY79  (1)
Converting Urban Solid Wastes
to Methane
                    Initiate  POCE's Agri-Waste
                    Energy Conversion  Systems

                    Complete  Agri-Waste POCE's
                    Initiate  Energy  Farming
                    System  POCE's
                                FY77,  FY78
                                FY79  (2,3,4)
                                FY80  (1,2)

                                FY77  (2)
                                FY78  (2)
                                FY79  (2)
       80 -  85       Initiate Demonstration
                    Projects:
                    Urban Solid Waste to Methane
                    Process

                    Agri-Waste Energy Systems

                    Marine Energy Farm

                    Terrestrial Energy Farms
                                FY80


                                FY81

                                FY81

                                FY 81, FY 82
Number in () refers to quarter of year  in which activity is scheduled.

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                                        8-12
                               APPENDIX  II  (cont.)

          FY	MILESTONES	       DECISION POINTS
       80 - 85      Complete Demonstration  Projects:
                    Urban Solid Waste to Methane             FY82
                    Agri-Waste Energy System                 FY83
                    Marine Energy Farm                       FY85
                    Terrestrial Energy Farm(s)               FY85, FY86
from Table 12 of the Report of the Task Force on Solar Energy of the Project
Independence Blueprint Study, Federal  Energy Administration, November 1974.

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                             g_l                       James W. Meyer
                                                       December 1, 1974
                           Monograph No. 9
                        MIT  Energy Laboratory
                             HYDROGEN FUEL

     Recently,  hydrogen has received attention  as  a possible alternative
fuel to natural gas,  for the following  reasons:
     1)  Reserves of  natural gas are  severely limited and are being
         depleted rapidly;
     2)  Reserves of  petroleum, and  especially tar sands and oil shale
         are somewhat limited, but the latter two  ard recoverable only
         at higher costs and are facing serious opposition from the
         environmentalists;
     3)  Reserves of coal are relatively large, but mining costs promise
         to rise steeply as  increasing quantities required for lique-
         faction, fasification, etc., are mined from increasingly un-
         favorable deposits;
     4)  A clean gaseous  fuel will apparently always be needed to fill
         the country's  pipelines.  Hydrogen  is the prime candidate here
         if natural  or  synthetic methane becomes unavailable  or un-
         attractive; and
      5)  Today's  indications are  that  electrical power  generation  in
         the long run  will increasingly be taken over by nuclear plants
         of enormous size, operating in remote locations near large
         volumes  of  cooling water.  There are  indications  that this
         electrical  energy might  be advantageously converted to  hydrogen,
         both  to supply the needed fuel gas  and to obtain  the economy
         of  low gas  transmission costs relative to electric energy
          transmission.
      Hydrogen's suitability as a natural  gas substitute derives from the
 following:
      1)  Hydrogen of high purity can be made by water-decomposition, so
          operated that only water and energy are  consumed.  The by-product
          oxygen produced can be safely vented into the atmosphere without
          pollution hazard.  The raw material required, namely water, is

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                               9-2
     available in substantially limitless  supply;  and
 2)   Hydrogen burns to  produce only water  when combusted  only with
     oxygen;  thus,  formation of the usual  undesireable  pollutants,
     namely CO,  unburned  hydrocarbons,  sulfur  compounds,  and parti-
     culates,  is entirely avoided.   As  when burning  any fuel in air,
     nitrogen oxides will form in combustions  when carried out at
     high enough temperatures.   Formations of  these  undesired oxides
     can be minimized,  as usual, by operating  at lowest possible
     temperatures.
 Hydrogen's characteristics  as  a fuel can  be judged  from  the following:
 1)   Comparing on a volume basis, hydrogen has about 1/3  the heating
     value of  natural gas.   Thus, if methane saturated  with water vapor
     shows a  "higher" heat of combustion of 1000 Btu per  cubic foot
     (60 F, 30"  water), hydrogen is  313 Btu/cubic  foot  under the same
     conditions;
 2)   Hydrogen's  use involves hazards somewhat  greater than with natural
     gas:  its  flammability limits (4% to 75% in air) are much wider
     than for  methane (5%  to 15%) or for any other gas, for that
     matter;  its  low viscosity  relative to other gases means that
     hydrogen  escapes more rapidly through a given leak; the energy
     required  for ignition of an explosive mixture of hydrogen in air
     is  smaller  than for methane.  Hydrogen burns with a substantially
     invisible flame, which could,  however, be rendered visible with
     suitable  additives.  Hydrogen is colorless, but could be supple-
    mented with the same odorizers  (mercaptans) as natural gas;
3)  With proper burner and settings, hydrogen can be burned in house-
    hold appliances about as successfully as natural gas;
4)  Hydrogen, unlike natural gas,  undergoes "flameless" combustion
    when passed (mixed with air) through a process plate filled  with
    a catalyst.   The heat evolved  in this porous plate is re-radiated;
    thus these plates act as "hot  plates."  Such heating  may be  of
    importance for appliances;
5)  Hydrogen uniquely is  an excellent  fuel for fuel  cells operating
    at near atmospheric temperature with aqueous electrolytes; and
6)  Hydrogen can, of course, serve  as  fuel for properly designed

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                              9-3
    internal and external combustion engines.
Hydrogen can be used with relatively high efficiency in a fuel cell.
1)  The efficiency of hydrogen use in a fuel cell is a sensitive
    function of current density, cell design,  etc.  It is probably
    possible to attain an 80% efficiency here in converting hydrogen's
    energy to electrical energy.
2)  It seems probable that the energy efficiency of interconverting
    electrical  energy and hydrogen is 80% either way.  Thus, an
    overall energy  efficiency of 64% in converting electrical energy
    to, hydrogen and back again to electrical energy appears reasonable.
Hydrogen  transmission through gas pipelines may present new problems:
 1)  A gaseous  hydrogen  pipeline grid, 130 miles long,  is  operated in
    the Ruhr by Chemische Werke Huls A.G., with diameters of  from 6
    to 12 inches  and a  design pressure  of  250  psi,.    Seamless steel
    pipe  (SAE  1015) is  used, with no compressor  stations  needed.
    There is reportedly a 50 mile hydrogen line  in  South Africa.  Air
    Products Inc. operates near Houston,  Texas,  a 15  mile long hydro-
     gen line,  8"  in diameter,  at  200 psi;
 2)  There is a tremendous background of know-how on natural gas pipe
     lines, relatively little on hydrogen lines.   Whether hydrogen
     could safely be put through existing natural gas lines and com-
     pressor stations, apparently remains to be established.  There
     seems little doubt that pipelines designed specifically for
     hydrogen can be built using existing technology;
  3)  Hydrogen transmission costs by pipeline can only be  approximated
      at this time.  These transmissions cost per mile are a sensitive
      function of  through-put (pressure and pipe diameters), pumping
      costs as  influenced by fuel costs, and terrains as this  affects
      capital costs. All  these factors are optimized  in pipeline
      design.   It  is to  be remembered that  costs also  depend on the
      load factor;
  4)   Costs per mile of  transmissions of  103 cubic feet of hydrogen, very
      roughly,  will be  about the same as for 103  cubic feet of natural
      gas, assuming total flows,  pressure,  etc.,  comparable.   Thus,  per
      million Btu costs for hydrogen are three-fold  those for  natural

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                                   9-4
         gas.  Very roughly typical costs of transmission of one-thousand
         cubic feet of natural gas (106 Btu) is around 2c per 100 miles
         in larger pipe.  Thus, costs of transmission of one million Btu
         of energy as hydrogen would be 6c per 100 miles (6.8C/1000 kWh/
         100 miles versus 20.4^/1000 kWh/100 miles); and
     5)  Hydrogen might alternatively be transported cryogenically in
         tanks as a liquid, or in solid combination as a hydride.   Such
         possibilities are highly speculative,  and are "far out."
     Hydrogen can be generated from water and electrical energy by electro-
lysis:
     1)  Water Electrolysis,  whereby water is decomposed to gaseous hydro-
         gen and gaseous oxygen,  is an old art.   Water electrolysis has
         never been an important  source of hydrogen industrially,  because
         of the high costs of the electrical energy required (roughly 90 kW
         hours for 1000 cubic feet of HZ and 500 cubic feet of  associated
         oxygen).   Only in remoter regions of countries like Norway and
         Canada, where electricity has been available  at  1  to 2 mills/kWh,
         has hydrogen  been produced electrolytically for  large  scale use;
     2)   In this country,  the enormous quantities of hydrogen consumed  in
         petroleum refining,  ammonia  productions,  etc., have come  from
         reactions of  steam with  natural gas, petroleum fractions,  and  to
         a  limited extent,  with coal.   By these  routes, hydrogen is  far
         cheaper today than by electrolysis.  Of  course,  as  fossil  fuel
         costs  increase due to decreased  availability,  electrolysis  using
         relatively cheap  electrical  energy  (from nuclear plants) will
         become more attractive;
     3)   Because of the low level  of  industrial  interest, electrolytic
         hydrogen  plants are not highly  evolved, and cost data are not
         abundant  or trustworthy.  Designs have come typically from
         European  engineering concerns, who are especially secretive.
         The Allis Chalmers Corporation in this country estimates invest-
        ment costs (based upon an assumed advanced plant design) of
         $37,500,000 for a capacity of 44,000 Ibs. H2/hour (equivalent
         to 400,000,000 cubic feet/day, or 16.7 million cubic feet  per
        hour.  This plant cost is probably significantly underestimated,

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                                  9-5
        but nevertheless is smaller by almost an order of magnitude
        than the costs of the large SNG Lurgi plants planned in this
        country;
    4)  Theoretical energy needs by electrolysis, when operating at
        or relatively near to room temperature, are 82 kW hours for
        1000 cubic feet of hydrogen.  Actual operations  (all depending
        on cell design, current densities, temperature,  operating pres-
        sures,  etc.) are around 90 kW hours per 1000 cubic feet of H2J
        and
     5)  By the  Allis Chalmers design, operating costs have been estimated
        as follows:
              Per day  (400,000,000 cubic  feet  H2/day)
        Labor,  Maintenance,  etc.                        $ 3,100
        Energy,  36 xlO6 kW  hours  @ %C                   180,000
        Depreciation  @ 5%                               	^^
                                                        $189,000
     The foregoing shows the  overriding  importance of  the electrical
energy cost component.   Note  that  theory shows this cost cannot be reduced
more than about 10% at most.
     Hydrogen production from water plus energy available only as high
temperature heat has been proposed, but success here is by no means assured,
     1)  While design problems will be significant, nuclear  reactors could
         probably be designed to make large quantities of heat available
         at as high as 1000° C.  Very little increase in this temperature
         is foreseeable at this time.  This heat would be available in
         cooling tubes somehow passing through the reactors.  For safety,
         the heat absorbing medium flowing through these tubes, in which
         air endothermal reaction presumably occurs, would have to be as
         controllable  and  "reliable" as water  in boiler  tubes.
      2)  Various reaction  series can be proposed whereby, when operating
         between  1000° and 25° C  (the surroundings  temperature, or  close
         to  it), water can be made to decompose  to  its  elements.  Nothing
         would  be consumed in  this operation except heat and  water, making

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                              9-6
    it a "thermal equivalent" of electrolysis,  in which only
    electrical energy and water are consumed,
3)  In theory, there are many reaction schemes  whereby the above
    can be accomplished.  Whether,  however,  either energy efficiency
    or equipment costs can be superior to those of an orthodox nuclear
    power plant operating on this same high temperature heat,  plus a
    water electrolysis plant, remains to be demonstrated.

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                               9-7
                       BIBLIOGRAPHY

Derek P. Gregory, "The Hydrogen Economy", Scientific
American, Volume 228, Page 13, January 1973.

J. O'M. Bockris, "A Hydrogen Economy", Science, Volume
172, Page 1323, June 1972.

Alden P. Armagnac, "Hydrogen:  Fuel of the Future?", Popular
Science, Page 64, January 1973.

W, E. Winsche, K. C. Hoffman, F. J. Salzano, "Hydrogen:
Its Future Role  in the Nation's Energy Economy  , Volume
180, Page 1325,  June 29,  1973.

Robert  L. Savage et. al.  (Eds) "A  Hydrogen  Energy  Carrier,
Volume  1 - Summary NASA-ASEE University  of  Houston,  Johnson
Space  Center,  Rice University, 1973.

William J. D.  Escher,  "Prospects for  Hydrogen  as a Fuel
for Transportation  Systems  and  for Electrical  Power
Generation",  Volume  ORNL-TM-4306,  September 1972.

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                                                                  William J.  Jones
                                10-1                               December 1,  1974
                              Monograph No.  10
                            MIT Energy Laboratory
                                GAS TURBINES

     A burner/boiler/steam engine (steam turbine) combination is a class
of external combustion engine that is basic in the electric power industry.
The gases from the burning fuel heat a fluid which drives a rotating
machine connected to an electric generator.
     A gas turbine is another class of external combustion engine.  The
gases from the burning fuel drive a rotating machine (turbine) directly.
For electric power production, the gas turbine is connected to an electric
generator.
     Gas turbines have relatively low capital cost, short installation time,
and can respond to load changes quickly.  Large numbers have been recently
installed by the electric utilities.  The original motivation was to provide
spinning reserve and peak power.
     With the increased demand for electricity,  the gas turbines are often
used for periods of 2000 hours per year and more.  The extended utilization
of gas turbines has been a  factor in  the trend of the electric industry to
install combinations of gas turbines  and steam plants to generate electricity.
THE PATTERN OF THE PAST
     The  load pattern  is a  key determinant  in the selection of generation
technologies and in consequent fuel  requirements.  A typical  composite week-
ly load pattern taken  from  the Federal  Power  Commission's  1970 National Power
Survey report is shown in Figure  1.
     Up  to  the early  60's fossil  fuel fired under-boiler generating plants
served in almost the whole  range  of  load.   New efficient plants were opera-
ted  as nearly as possible full-time;  older,  less efficient, partially written
off  plants  were used  in  the intermediate  load range in which  12-14  hour o.per-
ation, 5  days a week as  an  operational norm;  still older,  smaller plants
would  be placed on load  only a few hours  a  day at the peaks.  Hydro capacity,
where  available, would be used near the peaks also because of quick start-up
 capacity.

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                                       10-2
                          FIGURE I
             ELECTRICITY LOAD CURVE  U.S
             (A TYPICAL UTILITY COMPOSITE EXAMPLE)
             10
      PEAK
      (207«)   9
  INTERMEDIATE.,
      (27%)
  GAS
TURBINE,
WORKING
CAPACITY
Q.,000 MW)
      BASE   3
      (53%)
             2

             I
                 FOSSIL (BOILER)
                >UN
        M
                          30% OF KW MRS.
                          64% OF KW HRS.
W

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                                      10-3
   THE PATTERN OF THE FUTURE
        A pattern for the future  is shown in Figure 2.  Until 1981 the data are
   taken from the National Electric Reliability Council's Fall 1972 report of
   utility plans.  Much of this capacity for 1981 is already existent or under
   construction (especially the nuclear and the high pressure supercritical
   fossil).  The forward projection for nuclear is the most recent AEC estimate:
   the total capacity projection is simply a run-out at the historic 7% per
   year growth rate, divided into peaking, intermediate and base  load in the
   same ratio as for the 70's.
        Important aspects of this pattern are:
        (1) Base load capacity most likely will be 50% nuclear within 8-9
            years and perhaps 75% within 15 years.
        (2) Within 12-15 years (1985-1988) essentially all base load capacity
            will be of "nondemotable" types (i.e., nuclear and supercritical
            steam).  From this point onward, all intermediate load capacity
            growth will have to be filled by the installation of  new equipment-
            fuel systems specifically optimized for part-time service.
        (3) This new type intermediate load capacity "GAP" begins to open in
            the early 80s.*
        A technology which might fill this "GAP" is the "gas turbine-steam
   turbine combination," also known as STAG (SJTeam And Gas Turbine)  or PACE
   (Power At Combined Efficiency).
        Due to the delays in commissioning dates for new base load stations
   which have been caused in the last few years by environmental  considerations,
   regulatory problems and design and construction delays,  some utilities have
   decided to ensure themselves against  a shortage of base load capacity in the
   mid-70's by beginning to order new "combo" units now,  since they  can be had
,.-  with a 2-3 year delivery time.   This  movement began in 1972 when  6300 MWe
   were placed on  order.   Since the forces which caused this advance ordering
   are continuing,  a more realistic expectation for the "GAP" could  take place
   in  1974 instead of in 1981,  as  shown  in Figure 3.
   * A basic assumption  in this calculation was  that  the  annual commissioning
    of new under-boiler type capacity for base load  will drop to a  negligible
    amount by 1981.   This is the  only assumption which is  consistent with
    present technology  trends,  present  ordering trends,  and present utilities'
    planning.   The validity  of this  assumption,  and  the  consequences of vari-
    ous kinds of  deviation,  are explained in the Addendum.

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                                     10-4
                               FIGURE   2
 -  INSTALLED CAPACITY
1970     IS75       IS80       IS85       I9SO      I9S5      2000
              "Gap between projected installed capacity of
               electric power plants and demand."
               Source:   Federal Power Commission

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                                   10-5
     This implied growth of gas turbine-steam turbine combination capacity
is plotted directly in Figure 2, 3, 4 and 5.
     In the combined system, a fuel is burned and the hot gases therefrom
drive the gas turbine.  The exhaust (the hot gases)  from the turbine, still
at a very high temperature, are used to generate steam.  This steam then
drives a conventional steam turbine.  The gas turbine and the steam turbine
each drives its own electric generator.
     The present efficiency of a gas turbine alone is about 25%.  The
efficiency of a fossil fired steam plant may be about 35%.  The thermal
efficiency of a combined gas turbine/steam turbine power plants which are
due to come into operation this year will be slightly below 40%.
     The efficiency of the steam turbine portion of the combined cycle system
has, for all practical purposes, reached its limit.
     It is anticipated that gas turbine efficiencies can, within a decade,
reach 35% and, in another decade, 40%.  The advances in thermal efficiencies
described above can only be achieved if the improvements in high temperature
materials, turbine cooling techniques and aerodynamic design derived from
current aircraft engine programs can be translated into higher maximum
operating temperatures and cycle pressure ratios in industrial gas turbines
for electric utility applications.
     The combined cycle systems could reach efficiencies between 40% and
50% at the end of this decade and during the next decade could move towards
55%.
     Since conventional nuclear power plants have efficiencies around 32%
it is reasonable to ask why one would choose plants with a thermal efficiency
limited to about 32%, rather than those presently 40% efficient and expecta-
tions of reaching 50% to 60%.
Special Problems
     There are a number of considerations.  Some are important only in
light of assumed objectives and others represent constraints that greatly
limit the number of opportunities to use gas turbines alone or in combination
with steam and turbines.

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                             10-6
                           FIGURE  3
15
     INSTALLED CAPACITY
— X 100 MILLION kW
 1970     1975"      1980      1985      J990~	1993	200C
        Recommended scheme for filling gap between unfilled
        demand  (a) and capacity  (b).
        Source:  Federal Power Commission

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                                         10-7
     This implied growth of gas turbine-steam turbine combination capacity
     is plotted directly in Figure 4..
               FIGURE 4
                                                         FIGURE 5
10
1.0
O.I
.0
    GAS TURBINE-STEAM TURBINE,
    COMBINATION CAPACITY
X 100 MILLION kW,
                                                                I      I
                                          GAS TURBINE-STEAM TURBINE
                                          COMBINATION CAPACITY
                                              FUEL REQUIREMENTS
                                              (40% LOAD FACTOR - 3,500 HRS/YR)
                                              (34% EFFICIENCY - 10,000 BTU/W HR)
                                             -X MILLIONS OF BARRELS PER
                                                DISTILLATE FUEL OIL
                                                 (OR EQUIVALENT)
   970  1975   1980   1985   1990   1995 2000
                                         970  1975   I960  1985  1990  1995 2000

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                                     10-8
       Only light petroleum distillates such as numbers 1 and 2 and diesel
  fuel, natural gas, butane,  propane and low Btu gas,  free of harmful alkali
  and sulphur compounds, can be used in advanced gas turbines.   Heavy residual
  fuels which are used in conventional fossil fixed electric power plants  would
  seriously reduce the maximum operating temperatures  in  order to avoid erosion,
  ash deposition,  vanadium corrosion and sulfidation of turbine blades  and
  vanes.   Coal cannot  be  burned directly.
       If  more readily available coal,  heavy  oils,  etc.,  are to be used, they
  have  to  be  converted into a  clean  liquid or  gaseous  fuel.  The conversion
  of  heavy oil and  coal into a  clean high or  low Btu gas  results  in  a loss
  of  some  of  the energy in the  original  fuel, hence  the overall  efficiency
  is  reduced.   It is necessary,  therefore, to use fuels which are  in short
  supply,  or await the development and construction  of facilities which can
  convert more abundant, but unsuitable, dirty fuels to clean fuels.
  Size of Gas Turbines

      Present gas turbines are of sizes up to around 60 megawatts; however,
 it may be expected that the maximum size of industrial gas turbines may soon
 double.  With a power turbine operating at  1800 RPM instead of 3600 RPM,
 units up  to around 250 MW could be developed.
      It has been suggested that one could develop  an  integrated system
 (coal gasifiers,  low and high temperature cleanup  processes and combined
 cycle systems);  however,  the  development would have to be  preceded by  a
 study devoted to  identifying  the areas  of technology  needing  exploration
 in order  to  realize the  advantages  of  the integrated  system.   Then  there
 would  be  a need  to  further analyze  the  various identified  technologies
 in order  to  define  actual programs needed to bring  them  to  commercial
 realization.
     An electric generating power plant is a complex system in itself.  To
 include a  complete  coal gasification or liquifaction plant would require
 a new organization of engineers and technicians at each plant.  Disposal
 of the residue (ashes, etc.) at or from the  electricity generation site may
not be feasible.

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                                   10-9
Gas Turbines and Pollution
     Simple and complex cycle gas turbines can be used where the availability
of cooling water is limited.  Combined cycles provide means to reduce the
amount of heat rejected at the condenser per unit of electric power produced.
Since gas turbines have to burn clean fuels free of sulfur, alkali and lead
content, nitrogen oxides are the main pollutants to be concerned with.  The
combustion of fossil fuels with air results in the formation of nitrogen
oxides in all power systems.  Further, the control of NOX in the stack gases
is quite complex, since nitric oxide is relatively unreactive.  Thus, the
most attractive method of NO  control is to limit their formation in the
                            X
combustion products and in their subsequent cooling.  The amount of N0x
formed depends on the conditions in the primary combustion zones and on the
subsequent temperature and concentration distribution of the combustion
products.
     The combustor primary zones are operated at near stoichiometric conditions
and recirculation is used to enhance complete combustion.  High primary
zone temperature and long residence time promote N0x formation.  In stationary
power plants, water injection can be used  to cool primary  combustion gases
before much  NO  is formed.  Premixing  of fuel and air can  also be used to
              X
obtain  lean  primary combustion,  achieve lower flame temperature and reduce
the NO   formation.  The appreciable mass flow of low Btu gas  to air ratio
      X
should  allow good premixing and  good sub-stoichiometric combustion.  It
would  therefore appear  that the  NO  emissions achievable in advanced gas
                                  X
 turbines  can be maintained  at a  low permissable  level without  compromising
 turbine performance.
      The site location  considerations  of  a combined-cycle  and fuel processing
 plant are many  orders  of  magnitude more  complex.  The  sources  of  fuel  (there
 should be a minimum of  two),  required  transportation  facilities  environmental
 impact of the fuel processing plant  and  disposal of  the unique effluents
 (keeping in mind that  the residues  are not conventional ash)  and the overall
 system economics  are issues that would be added to  those present for a
 conventional utility.
      It is possible to generate 2000 megawatts  with a plurality of  small
 combined systems.   The economics and complexity of  such  an installation
 need detailed study.

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                                    10-10
     Major technology changes, environmental and societal concerns are
altering electricity generation and its fuel consideration.  The requirement
for clean gaseous or liquid fuels for gas turbines and conceivably other
technologies too, will have to be sufficient to warrant the time and effort
for research, development and construction stages.  Gas turbines fuel require-
ments are in competition with present domestic, commercial and industrial
demands.  Clean fuels in necessary quantities to eliminate the need for
nuclear or high pressure supercritical, or other sources of energy, will not
be available for two decades.

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                                          10-11
                               FUEL
                                                  POWER TURBINE
AIR
                                                             ELECTRIC GENERATOR
                                       Gas  Turbine
                            Figure 6

-------
                                 10-12
   To Stack
  Hot Gas
from Burners
                       Steam Turbine
                         Figure 7

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                                        10-13
                               FUEL
AIR
                                                  POWER TURBINE
                                                            ELECTRIC GENERATOR
                                                            ELECTRIC GENERATOR
                                  PUMP
                                 Combined Cycle System
                                  Figure 8

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                               1,,                       James W. Meyer
                                                         December 1,  1974
                            Monograph No.  11
                          MIT Energy Laboratory
                 FUEL CELL GENERATION OF ELECTRIC POWER

     To solve the problem of providing electric power for space vehicles
and for certain military application, the federal government provided
funds for fuel cell research which peaked at about $16-million in 1963
and had fallen off to about $3-million in 1970.  Only one company, Pratt
& Whitney Aircraft, division of United Aircraft Corporation, East Hart-
ford, Connecticut, persisted in the direction of providing a commercial-
ized f.uel cell system with potential application to electric utility
systems.
     The basic fuel for fuel cells is hydrogen and oxygen which, when
reacted in a cell, produces electric power and forms water as a by-
product.  A fuel cell power plant also contains a reformer and an in-
verter.  The reformer is a chemical reactor which converts the primary
fuel (e.g. natural gas, distillate fuel oil, methanol) into hydrogen
for use in the fuel cell with oxygen derived from the air.  The inverter
changes the direct current output of the fuel cell into alternating
current at the frequency and voltages required for distribution and use
in conventional electric utility circuits.
     Commercial applications approached by  the Pratt & Whitney program
are  three related but different size units:
     1)  On-site conversion of natural gas  to electricity
     2)  Supplementary power plants  to central station facilities
          (25 to 100 megawatts)
     3)  Electric power for remote locations and unattended operation
          (10 to 200 kilowatts)
     Only Westinghouse Electric Corporation, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania,
has  investigated the use of fuel cells for  central station generation.
Westinghouse has no present program  for the commercialization of  such
units.
     On-site generation of  electricity for  residences and small busi-
nesses  has received most field testing thus far.  Thirty-five natural
gas  companies  formed a Team to Advance Research  for  Gas  Energy

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                                    11-2
 Transformation  (TARGET) and have  Installed nearly sixty 12.5 kilowatt
 fuel  cell  power  plants at 37 locations  in the United States and Canada.
 A goal  of  the program was to demonstrate the commercial feasibility of
 providing  all utilities for a residence or small business with but a
 single  fuel: natural gas.  The same units, perhaps with a different re-
 former  technique to accomodate other primary fuels, have application
 also  in the remote location category.
      The program for the commercial development of supplementary power
 plants  of  a unit capacity of twenty-six megawatts (enough to provide
 electricity for  a community of 20,000 people) has been supported by a
 group of electric utilities, and by Pratt & Whitney's own funds.
      The electric utility industry plans to employ these units for dis-
 persed  power generation, a non-traditional approach, that locates genera-
 ting  units within the distribution network which disperses pollution
 sources, lessens  transmission line requirements, and reduces reserve
 requirements.  An advantage of the system is its agility in responding
 to changes in load.  Units respond "instantaneously" (in less than a
 cycle)  to a step  load increase (or decrease)  from zero to 100% of rated
 power.  This makes the system particularly suitable to meet peak de-
mands on a utility system which it can do more efficiently than can
 conventional peaking equipment.
     The 26 MW FGC-1 Fuel Cell Power Plant being developed by Pratt &
Whitney has a fuel equivalent heat rate of 8500 Btu/kWh at part load,
and at full 26 MW output,  12,000 Btu/kWh  reflecting a loss of plant
 efficiency at peak loads.   This is to be compared with that of a con-
ventional steam plant usually taken to be 10,300 Btu/kWh.   Sulfur com-
pounds are potentially harmful to Powercel because they poison the re-
former catalyst.   Both unsaturated and heavy  hydrocarbons  cause carbon
formation in the reformer.   Ammonia (nitrogen)  deposits in the fuel
cell,  and water reduces the charcoal capacity.   Liquid  fuels suitable
for FGC-1 are limited to:
                            Jet  A
                            Jet  B
                            Naptha
                            No.  2 Heating  Oil

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                                   11-3
or the following gases:
                            Natural gas
                            Process gas
                            Propane
                            Butane
                            Hydrogen
The FGC-1 thus is competing for the premium fossil fuel and its
effective heat rate exceeds that of a conventional steam system at
its maximum rated continuous power of 26 MW.
     Pratt & Whitney production plans are to deliver the first production
generator in mid-1977 and to establish a manufacturing capability to
deliver at least 50 generators by year 1980.  These are the only fuel
cell systems at this or comparable power levels this close to commercial
service.
     To replicate the generating capacity of a 1200 MW power plant with
these fuel cell systems, operating at half rated power for maximum fuel
efficiency, would require 90 units, nearly two years' production in the
1980s.
     Northeast Utilities, Hartford, Connecticut has conducted studies of
utilization economics.  In particular, they compared the annual pro-
duction costs of a 250 MW nuclear  system with a 250 MW fuel cell power
plant as a function of fuel cost at the substation.  The base load fuel
cell has lower  annual production costs for fuel costs up to $.80/MBtu.
The nuclear fuel price was taken to be $.21/MBtu.  Fuel cell capital
costs were taken to be $165/kw and those for the nuclear plant as $325/kW.
If the nuclear  installed cost  is taken to be $400/kW, the break-even fuel
cost  is greater than $l/MBtu.  Twelve-dollar-a-barrel oil is a fuel cost
in excess of  $2/MBtu.  Fuel and construction costs have changed dramatically
since  these studies were performed.  The above figures are quoted only to
indicate the  economic context  in which the  study was done.

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                                   11-4
                               REFERENCES


Hammond, Allen L., William D. Metz, and Thomas H. Maugh II, "Energy
and the Future," American Association for the Advancement of Science
Washington, D.C., 1973.

Thomas H. Maugh II, "Fuel Cells: Dispersed Generation of Electricity,"
Science, Volume 178, 22 December 1972.

W.J. .Luecket, L.G. Eklund and S.H. Law, "Fuel Cells for Dispersed
Power Generation," Paper presented at the IEEE meeting in New York,
1973.

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                                                          David C.  White
                                                          December  1,  1974
                              Working Paper  No.  12
                              MIT Energy Laboratory
                CONSERVING,  FINDING AND DIRECTING ENERGY RESOURCES*
    Introduction:
        Ths oil embargo of the fall of 1973 coupled with the rapid price
    escalation of OPEC controlled foreign oil prompted the United States
    government to undertake a national program aimed at reducing dependence
      1                                               {
    on foreign petroleum.  The program is called Project Independence and
    the FEA is currently leading a major study to develop a blueprint to
    define strategies consistent with national economic goals and energy
    resources.  While the national program has not been announced, the pre-
    liminary reports from the FEA, and other reports such as the MIT Energy
    Laboratory study "Energy Self-Sufficiency: An Economic Evaluation""',
    and the MAE study "U.S. Energy Prospects, An Engineering Viewpoint"^  ,
    all show that domestic self-sufficiency carries with it a very high price
    for energy fuels plus additional environmental costs that have not been
    thoroughly evaluated.  The United States thus finds itself facing a
    major change in its historical position of abundant cheap energy.
        The response to this change requires careful evaluation of the
    future use of both United States and world energy resources.
        In recent years both popular and professional  attention has been
    focused on the exponentially growing United States and world gross
    national products, energy consumption and population.  Two divergent
    groups have taken opposing strong positions.   The "Neo-Malthusians"
                                                                       ;
* Presented  at the  panel discussion  of Financial Executive Institute's
  43rd annual international conference at Honolulu, Hawaii, October 6-9, 1974

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                                   12-2
                                     (3)
 views are symbolized by Paul  Ehrliclr  '  in his stand against popula-
 tion growth and Jay Forrester^  '  in  his  prediction of cyclic catastrophe
 from over-use of resources,  food,  and  related  inputs to an  industrialized
 society.   An alternative "Neo-Malthusian"  view is  that of the environ-
 mentalists which is that pollution from  products of industrialization
 such as  particulates,  chemicals,  radioactivity, and heat will  overload
 the  natural  ability of the earth  to  maintain an equilibrium  in  which man
 can  live  in  his projected state of growing industrialization and  popula-
 tion.  The other view  is that of  the "Technology Optimists"  characterized
 mainly by resource  economists as  typified  by Harold J.  Barnett^ who
 look at the  historical  prices of mineral resources  and  food  in  the market-
 place and  show  that for  over one  hundred years they have  been decreasing
 in real dollars,  with  technology  improvement offsetting  depletion effects.
 With price the  economist's measure of  scarcity they conclude  there is no
                                         i   *
 shortage  of  these resources: the rate  of technical   advance has  outrun any
 real resource limitations either through ecomanagement and substitutes,
 or drastically  lowering  the risk of  extinction, or  promotion and recycling.
     A resolution of these opposing  views  is not possible since each is
 based on fundamentally different premises.   The "Neo-Malthusians" tend to
deal primarily with physical  quantities, which are   surely finite on a
finite earth.  The  "Technology Optimists" tend to focus more on economic
measures dealing with relative price  and productivity which  in theory
reflect all physical constraints.   The  fault of the former is that it
usually projects farther into the  future than  realistic projection can
be made,  particularly considering  possible  technology improvements and
societal  changes.  The fault  of  the latter  is  that  economic  criteria  using

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                                  12-3
                                           v




any reasonable interest rate gives negligible weight to events more than



20-30 years into the future and focuses only on short range criteria,



with current production and consumption being the driving forces.



For effective or optimum resource allocation and utilization a medium



term view lying somewhere in between the two extremes is probably re-



quired.  A viable theory to deal with medium term projection and resource



evaluation is yet to be developed and is a major challenge to planning



effective resource utilization.





                                                               i   i


Historical Trends:



     The consumption of energy  in all forms has grown steadily in the



U.S. along with the GNP and the population since the beginning of the



industrial revolution.  In fact,  in the last 100 years energy consumption



has grown  by a factor of 20,of  which  a factor of 5 has been due to pop-



ulation growth and a factor of  4  due  to energy use per capita.  The in-



creased use of energy per capita  has accompanied increased industrial-



ization, and  has  been further accelerated by the general economic  level



(affluence) of  society  as a whole.  The average growth rate of energy



utilization for a century  has been  3%, yet  in  1973,  even with shortages



in  the last quarter and major efforts to  reduce energy use, the annual



growth rate for all energy was  4.8%,  while  petroleum,  our  domestic fuel



in  shortest supply, grew at a  rate  of 5.2%.  This trend  is  not new,  in



fact,  1972 was  similar  with petroleum consumption growing  at  8%.   The de-



cade  of the sixties also showed a steadily  growing  demand  for energy



fuels, particularly petroleum  products  in all  forms.   The  first  signifi-



cant  break in  this  trend has occurred in  late  1973  and 1974 as  a  result



of a  short run  shortage coupled with  large  price  changes for  petroleum



products.

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                                     12-4

      An  important consequence of the  increased prices of fuels is be-
 ginning  to  emerge.   During the period of energy shortages there occurred
 a major  reduction of energy consumption  in all sectors.  During the six
 months,  January through June 1974, the consumption by primary fuel type
 shown  in Table I occurred.  The consumption of electricity generated from
 these  primary fuels  for 1974 is shown as a weekly percentage change over
 1973  in  Figure I.  These data show that the combination of shortages, high
 prices and  national  requests for consumption have reduced the total con-
 sumption of energy fuels by 2.6% for the first six months of 1974 over
 1973 and reduced the 1974 growth rate for electricity to approximately
 zero over 1973.  This marked shift from steadily increasing energy con-
 sumption to one of a slight decrease is an important indicator if it is
 due to changes in consumption patterns.
     Some indication of possible change is obtained from the data on
 gross national product (GNP) as shown in Table II.   For the first two
 quarters of 1974 there was an increase in GNP in current dollars but a
 slight decrease when corrected to constant 1958 dollars.  There is then
 a 0.6% decrease in real GNP for the first six months of 1974 and a de-
 crease of 2.6% in total fuel  consumed.  This corresponds to a net 2% gain
 in energy productivity (i.e.  energy consumed per unit of output)  for this
 period.  This is not an enormous gain but does show some short range
 response of the total system to the markedly changed character of the
 energy supply-price patterns  during the first part  of 1974.
     An important additional  factor does appear in  Table I.   The  fuel
 that has changed  most markedly in  price is oil  (approximately tripling)
and this has shown the largest decrease (-5.6%).   Both  shortages  and
higher prices for oil appeared during this six-month period.

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                                             i   \
                                 12-5


                              TABLE I


              U.S. ENERGY CONSUMPTION,  1974 versus 1973
Six Month

Average ,
1974
EOE* / in millions
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Total
16.4
11.8
6.4
1.6
0.5
36.9
January- June
1973
Change 1974 from 1973

of barrels/day Percent
17.3
12.3
6.2
1.5
0.4
37.9
-0.9 ' -5.2%
-0.5 -4.1%
+0.2 +3.2%
+0.1 +6.6%
+0.1 +25%
-1.0 -2.6%
-Source:  The  Oil Daily,  Friday, August -2,  1974
          Barrels  of oil equivalent
(6)

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                                     12-6

                                FIGURE I
                      ELECTRIC  OUTPUT  IN TPIE  U.S.

                     Through  June 15,  1974,  in Kwh
                   change over corresponding wk of 1973
                   change over corresponding 52-wk period 1972-73
Source:
                                                G_i^i^>  July  1974.(7)

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                                    12-7
                                 TABLE II
                         GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

                           Billions of Dollars
                                                 Quarters

                              1st          2nd         3rd         4th

Current Dollars
    1973                    1248.9        1277.9       1308.8       1344
    1974
                            1358.8        1383.5
1958 Dollars              "
    1973                  "'  832.8         837.4       840.8        845.7

    1974                     830.5         828

Percent change:              -0.16%        -1.1%

Six month change:                     -°-6%

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                                       12-8
        The short run reduction in total oil consumption cannot at this
   time be used to reliably estimate either short or long term price res-
   ponsiveness of various petroleum products.   Average changes are misleading
   since the  tripling in  crude  oil  prices  transfers  through  to different
   products and  consumers in markedly  different  ways.   Residual  oil  prices
   used  for industrial processes and electricity generation  which  in
   early  1970 were below  crude  prices, have more  than  tripled  in price and
  now often sell at or above crude oil prices.   Gasoline has  increased
  about 40% at the"pump, up approximately 20* per gallon which corresponds
  to a doubling of the non tax price.   Electricity in the Eastern Seaboard
  where residual oil  is  the primary fuel  has seen prices increase by 50%  be-
  cause of fuel  pass  thru charges  in rate  structures.   These price changes
  and  the reduction  in consumption  over  historic 11  growth rates for
  electricity  shown  in Figure  I appear to  be  important trends  for  future
  policy  to improve domestic supply-demand  balance.
      The possible influence of high  prices and  shortages is  further
 accented by Table III which shows the cumulative consumption of electricity
 for January through August 24, 1974 by region.  The regions most impacted
 by high residual oil prices are  the Atlantic Seaboard and  the South Pacific
 Coast.   They show substantial  decrease  in electricity consumption, i  e
 New England  (-5.4%); Middle Atlantic  (-3.4%),  and Pacific Southwest (-4.5%).
      However,  since  the  removal of the  boycott  and  the return of  plentiful
 fuel  supplies,  albeit at substantially  higher  prices,  there has been a
 gradual  return  to normal  fuel  patterns not disturbed  by  shortages.  As
 stable supplies  return there is growing evidence  that  the higher fuel
prices are not bringing  forth a demand responsiveness to price in the
relatively short term that was observed  when the shortage existed.
     Table III which shows the weekly  demand for electricity for the

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                                   12-9
                               TABLE III
                          Weekly Output Aug.  24
                           40,299,000,000 kwhr
                    Aug. 17 39,299      Aug.  10 37,685

Total U.S.
New Ervg.
Mid. Atlan.
Cent. Ind.
West. Cent.
Southeast
So. Cent.
Rocky Mt.
Pacific
NW 	
SW 	
Latest v/eek
over 1973
+ 5.6
+ 5.3
+ 9.5
+ 7.3
- 2.4
+ 6.9
+ 4.3
+ 5.0
+ 9.0
- 1.7
Cum. year
to date
0.0
- 5.4
- 3.4
- 0.7
+ 2.3
+ 0.2
+ 5.1
+ 5.7
+ 4.3
- 4.5
52 weeks
to date
+ 1.5%
- 1.9
- 1.1
+ 1.4
+ 2.6
+ 2.6
+ 5.2
+ 5.8
+ 1.5
- 2.7
    Latest  seasonally adjusted index 159
    Previous week  156  Year ago 159
    Source:  Edison Electric  Institute

(From Electric  World. Spt. 15, 1974)(8)

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                                     12-10

 week of August 24, 1974 shows in almost all  regions an increase in
 demand over the same week in 1973.   This is  the peak period  of summer
 air conditioning load and is a period of high and  historically in-
 creasing demand.  Even at higher prices, a high growth in  demand  occurred
 on the Atlantic Seaboard.
      A somewhat similar pattern for petroleum products is  shown in Table
 IV.   The high  demand for electricity shows up in the increased  demand  for
 residual  oil.   The vacation  demand  for transportation  shows  up  in
 the  increased  use  of gasoline (+2.3%)  and  jet fuel  (+5.6%) over the similar
 period  of 1973.  One thus observes  a  return  to  somewhat normal  demand
 growth  occurring as  the specter of  shortages  disappears.  The growing
 surplus  of gasoline  during the  summer,  and the  softening of  gasoline and
 other petroleum  prices  is possibly  leading the  way  back to historic
 energy consumption practices.   The  long  run response' to: increasing prices
 is yet to  be determined  but  the  promising  short run  price responsive-
 ness of  the first  six months  of  1974 may well prove to be anomalous.   If
 this is true, the  implication of price elasticities calculated  by many
 econometric models from data  in  periods of decreasing prices such as the
work of Hudson and Jorgenson discussed later, may be open to serious
question and, if so, pose major problems for  programs of conservation
based on decreased consumption and increased  energy productivity.

 Domestic Energy  Supply Potential:
     The domestic resource base of fossil and nuclear fuels is still  large
compared to even present consumption levels.   Resources are always difficult
to estimate for at least two reasons.  First, until  they are  actually  dis-
covered they must be estimated from geological data  alone,  and second,  once

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                         iz-n
                        TABLE IV

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS DEMAND FOR AUGUST, 1974 VERSUS  19.73*
  Deraand, b/d:            Latest week    Year  ago     %  Change
  (4-week avg.)             (9-6-74)       (9-6-73)	
  Motor gasoline            7,067,000      6,906,000   -   +.2.3
  Middle distillates        2,313,000      2,633,000      -12.2.
  Jet fuel                  1,043,000        988,000      + 5.6
  Residual                  2,785,000      2,454,000      +13.5
  Other products,  etc.      3,475,000      3,600,000      - 3.5

     Total  demand          16,603,000     16,581,000      + 0.6
Source:  Oil & Gas Journal, September  16,  1974 \  '

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                                       12-12

   discovered,  the amount recoverable depends  upon  both  price  and  technology.
   Any discussion  of resources  tends  to be  a mixture  of  true resource
   uncertainty  and confusion  as  to  the  underlying assumptions  on recovery
   methods and  prices.  The recently  released  A.P.I,  reserve data  on petro-
   leum has this problem, because it  assumes a price  substantially below the
   current market  and thus underestimates current reserves.  Even though the
   resource base is large, there are many technological and economic problems
  to be overcome to deliver these energy resources  to the marketplace in a
  form that is  useable by current equipment,  and environmentally acceptable
  to society.
       One  problem with which the U.S.  is  faced  today and is central  to
  policy  formulation  for  the  rest of  the 1970's  is: Wh.a^pj^ior^Oh^J^


                                       A supply curve of domestic fuels dealing
 with these factors  is not available nor fully able to be estimated.  Neither
 is the demand curve known nor can it be effectively estimated since the U.S.
 history of energy utilization has been developed in  a framework of de-
 creasing real  costs for  energy supplies,  except for  the last  year.   Mixed
 into both  the  supply and demand picture is the  further  complication of  the
 last decade  of growing environmental  impact of  energy production  and  utili-
 zation with  which government and society generally are  struggling to  deal
 effectively.   Thus  the basic  information to make joint  predictions  of future
 supply-demand  responsiveness  is  not  available and decisions must be reached
 under conditions  of  high uncertainty where costs and risk are extremely large
 for both producers and consumers of energy fuels.
     The MIT Energy Laboratory has used current  econometric models to
estimate supply responsiveness of the three major fuels  by the end of this

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                                   12-13
decade at prices from $1.25 to $2.00 per million Btu's*.  These studies
indicate that the above prices for domestic petroleum generate supply
responses of about + 10% over 1973 production.   For this same price range
the domestic natural gas supply increases approximately 25% under a pricing
policy of a jump in price followed by steadily increasing prices for new gas.
The coal responsiveness is 0% to 25% over current consumption depending upon
sulfur requirements, strip mining practices and transportation rate structures,
The electricity contribution from nuclear power will double.  Thus the total
domestic supply for the price range of $1.25 to $2.00 per million Btu is,
by the end of the 1970's, increased approximately 20% over the 1973
domestic production.  These substantially higher prices over pre-1973
prices have a supply response that is relatively limited during the decade
of the 1970's.
     The demand response to this same range of prices has also been esti-
mated.   '  At the $1.25 per million Btu price the aggregated demand is up
25% while at $2.00 per million Btu the demand is up only 15% over 1973.
demand with 1973 inputs running above 15% of total demand.  The demand-
supply clearing price for domestic fuels, assuming maximum responsiveness of
both supply and demand, seems to be above $2.00 per million Btu in 1973
dollars by the end of the decade.  This figure is probably low considering
both the physical and political constraints to be overcome.
     The precision of these estimates is subject .to substantial error
and can only be considered as general guidelines.  They indicate, however,
that domestic supply-demand balance by the end of the 1970's can only
be obtained at a high price, if at all.  In addition to price, it also
*For a detailed analysis of the complex factors of supply-demand and new
 technology, see reference{l).  All cost figures are in 1973 prices.

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                                    12-14
requires major changes in government policy such as increased pricing of
natural gas, liberal coal mining policies with minimum environmental con-
straints, and expanded leasing policies on federal lands for all energy
fuels.  The combination of high prices and policy changes raises the ques-
tion of what other options are available.
     Potential alternates to the conventional  fossil  fuels are synthetic
fuels - low and high Btu gas from coal and syncrude from coal or oil shale.
Gasification and liquefaction of coal are both proven technology developed
primarily by Germany in the 1940's but allowed to effectively languish in
the last three decades because of the price advantage of natural petroleum
products.  Currently, major efforts are underway to update and improve this
technology to improve process efficiency and lower costs so as to make the
large quantities of domestic coal and oil shale an effective domestic
supply source.
     Most of the new technologies are in the pilot or prepilot plant
stage.  Thus, processes are in a state of flux and capital costs as well
as total costs are subject to substantial uncertainty.   To establish some
measure of the state of the synthetic technology the  MIT Energy Laboratory^ '
evaluated current literature on those processes and developed a set of
comparative costs to the extent it was possible to do so.  Using a standard
                      g
plant size of 250 x 10  Btu per day equivalent, the capital  cost of
all synthetic fuel  plants supplying methane or a syncrude seem to be
remarkably similar and range from 350 to 400 million  dollars per daily
250 x 10  Btu.  The cost of the products also  cluster in the range of
$1.25 to $1.75 per million Btu which includes  a 15% charge  for capital.
The capital  requirements for thoseplants is high since  it takes approximately
four dollars of investment to generate an annual million Btu's of product
whose cost at the plant is estimated to range between $1.25 and $1.75.

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                                    12-15
These costs contain neither profits nor allowance for risk.  If for this
high risk and a capital intensive industry, a pre tax return on capital at
25% is required to generate the necessary capital, the price must contain
an additional $1.00 to cover the capital investment of $4,00.  This trans-
lates into a price of  $2.25 to $2.75 per million Btu at the plant.  Thus
a reasonable price estimate of a synthetic fuel  seems to be between $12.50
and $16.50 per barrel  with the higher price being more probable.
     Recognizing that  there are  large uncertainties  in these estimated
prices,  the  data strongly  indicate  that the  synthetic fuel  industry
needs major  technological  improvements  and cost  reductions  to  be  an
economically acceptable  energy supply alternative.
      In  addition to  price  there  is  a further  critical  problem.   A  gasi-
fication plant  for coal  that  produces  240  million  cu.  ft.  per  day  (250 x
109 btu/day) requires  an input of  15,000 tons of coal  per  day  or 5 million
tons  annually.   It takes 12  such plants to generate one  trillion cu.  ft.
of methane annually.  It takes  72  similar  size liquefaction plants
 (40,000 bbl./day and 10,000  tons coal/day) to yield one  billion barrels
 of syncrude annually.   A 1%  contribution  to the estimated  energy demand
 by the end of the decade is  approximately  0.5 billion annual barrels of
.oil equivalent.  Even this modest contribution would require 36 syncrude
 plants consuming 120 million tons of coal  annually.  The time required to
 design and construct  a typical  syncrude plant once protype experience
 is obtained is approximately 5 years and requires 1.5 million man hours of
 technical labor and 10 million man hours of craftsman and manual  labor.  The
 major architect-engineering firms of the U.S. face doubling to  tripling
 in size  in  this decade  to meet  projects already under contract  for electric
 power plants and  conventional fossil fuel facilities.(1J  This  raises a ser-

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                                      12-16
  ious  question  of  the  potential  expansion  capability of  this  sector  to
  take  on  the  radically new  technology of a  synthetic fuel  industry.
       Considering  the  current  state of  technology, the long proving  time
  for new  technology, the large technical and craftsman manpower inputs to
  the complex  plants for synthetic fuels, and the large numbers of plants
  required to  significantly contribute to domestic demand for energy  fuels,
  one is forced to conclude the synthetic fuels industry as a major energy
  source is many years  into the future - probably well  into the 1990's.
      The simplest summary of the synthetic fuel  technology is that it is
 truly difficult to produce in man-made plants liquid  and gaseous  fuels from
 solid fossil  fuels that are equivalent  to  those  that  nature produced and
 concentrated  in natural reservoirs  over millions of years.  The  synthetic
 fuel  industry is going to  be truly  hard pressed  to compete with natural
 petroleum products and cannot  do so  in  the 1990's.
      Other  energy  sources  not  requiring fossil fuels as  the  primary  energy
 input  are nuclear,  solar and geothermal  sources.  Solar  energy can be
 used  for  space  conditioning  in residential  and commercial  buildings  utili-
 zing current  laboratory technology.  Because past low prices  for energy
 have made solar  heating uneconomical, there has  been no  industry developed
 to supply solar  heating components.  As prices rise these  conditions  are
 changing.  The time, however, to establish a new industry  supplying
 essentially a consumer-dominated market is long and fraught with difficulties
 Consumer-dominated products incur large distribution  costs and carry a high
 introduction cost entailing substantial  risk.   Merely  calculating  materials
 of construction and labor costs under ideal conditions  vastly under-
estimates the  economic  break-even point  of  a new  consumer product.   This  has

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                                   12-17
often been done in predicting the economic point at which solar power can
compete with other fuels.  Add to this the variability of solar power,
hence the need for energy storage and usually supplementation by other
sources and one has a complicated picture for a solar industry development.
The time will be years and probably decades.
     Solar energy for electricity generation is even more complicated and
is always fighting the capital and land costs inherent in a low intensity-
diffuse and variable power source.  Economic solar  power for electricity
generation  is  still  in the exploratory research phase.
     Geothermal energy from  dry  and wet  steam reservoirs  is  exploitable
with known  technology.   Geological explorations to locate  sources,  the
 handling  of corrosive  vapors, and the disposal  of waste  heat because of
 the low temperatures involved are all problems.   Geothermal  steam has a
 utility whenever  it exists and is being  developed today.  Geothermal
 steam, however, cannot supply more than  a very small fraction of energy
 demand.  Deep hot rock geothermal sources are an interesting energy
 source but no technology exists to utilize them effectively.  It is still
 a research area.
      Nuclear fission power  is the only non-fossil  fuel source currently
 available that is backed by a fully  developed industry  structure to
 manufacture,  install, operate and deliver  power  to consumers.  The  past
 twenty years  of  development and  operating  experience  has brought this
  industry to  a  point of  maturity where it can be  a  major energy supply
  source.  There are  problems of  siting,  licensing,  safety, construction
  costs,  and social  acceptance which must be overcome for this  industry to
  fully develop its  potential.  To the present  heated and often irrational
  dialogues  on both  sides, there is little that  can be added  in a  short
  paragraph other than to draw a comparison between this developed

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                                     12-18
  industry now facing many problems including social  acceptance and the as
  yet infant synthetic fuel  industry.   There seems  to be no inherent ad-
  vantage of synthetic fuel  plants  over nuclear  plants in terms of costs,
  environmental  impacts,  desirability  to have in  densely populated urban
  areas,  etc.   To  believe the  synthetic fuel  industry can develop  faster,
  with  fewer problems,  and be  more  acceptable is  mixing  fact with  fantasy.
  Such  fantasy  is  always  expensive  as  past experience has proven many times
  over.

  Energy  Productivity and Conservation
      The productivity of industry is  determined by  the  factor inputs
 which are traditionally taken as capital and labor.   The cost of natural
 resource inputs, particularly energy, for most  industries have been low
 relative to labor and capital costs,   A long history of abundance of re-
                        i
 sources coupled with national policy  to subsidize  resource development
 (depletion allowances) and  resource  consumption (price, regulation) has
 effectively maintained resource availability at low  market prices.   The
 United States  has developed its industrial  base and  pattern of consumption
 in  this  historical  framework  of abundant low priced  resources  and one
 consequence is  that  the  United  States is the world leader in resource
 consumption per capita.
     The changing availability  of  resources  by the combination of increasing
 depletion of domestic  resources and cartelization of some  world   resources
 is changing the pattern  of  both resource availability and prices.
     The  long history of cheap and abundant energy has set a pattern of
United States energy consumption in which capital costs of energy con-
suming equipment are a larger fraction of total  costs than fuel costs.
This pattern pervades the residential-commercial sector, the transportation

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                                    12-19
sector, and the industrial  sector, including even the energy intensive
primary metals, petrochemicals, food products, etc.   The price changes of
the last year where the price of crude oil  has approximately tripled has
brought forth both real changes in energy productivity, and studies of energy
utilization which indicate what may be technically and economically feasible
for future energy use practices.
     Returning first to the  influence of shortages and price changes
there  is evidence for the first time in history, except for wartime periods,
that the growth  rate in energy consumption  has been  reduced.   In the
transportation sector  the 1974 consumption  of gasoline was  below 1973  levels
until  August  --when consumption  in the two years was approximately equal.
The  combination  of  driving  restraint, transportation mode  shift, and  high
prices produced  a  reduction in energy consumption.   In  the residential  and
commercial  market  during  the period of  the  shortages the  demand  for
electricity in New England  was down approximately 15%..  In the Northeast
 a combination of thermostat adjustments and home improvements resulting
 from restraint and price increases yielded  a 30% decrease in the demand
 for heating oil  in the winter of 1973-74.   In the industrial sector
 typically a 10% to 15% reduction in energy consumption was achieved through
 improved scheduling of product flows, reduction of  heat losses in faulty
 equipment and minor improvements in processes.  Such small gains were
 essentially available on a  one-time improvement spurred by shortages and
  increased prices.  A fundamental question  is which  of those type reductions
  are sustainable, by what incentives, and how do the long-term economics
  of  increased  energy production compare with  the economics  of  increased
  supply development?   Several  studies are available  of potentials for
  improved  energy productivity  in  energy intensive  industrial  processes.
       The  report "Potential  for  Effective Use of Fuel  in  Industry"  prepared

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                                     12-20

 by the Thermo Electron Corporation in April 1974^°) identifies potential
 savings in five of the most energy intensive industries.  They conclude
 that a one-third savings is possible in these industries by the use of
 1973 technology and that substantial  additional  savings are possible
 through the development of new technologies.  A summary of their results
 is shown in Table V.
      The upper limit  of theoretical  possibility was determined by tabulating
 a  theoretical  minimum energy consumption for each industry based on thermo-
 dynamic availability*.   This minimum  energy requirement is for most
 processes  shown  in  Table V approximately 10% of  the present energy consumed.
 The  minimum bound set by the theoretical  limit  is certainly not obtainable  but
 this bound does  help  to show what  might be  expected by  research and ad-
 ditional capital  investment.   As a rough estimate a factor of  three gain
 in overall  effectiveness of energy consumption  in industrial processes
 would  be pushing  the  practical  limits quite hard,  and the  theoretical factor
 of 10  is essentially  impossible.   The fact  that  1973 technology can re-
 duce energy consumption  by  one-third  (i.e.  use only 66%  of the  current
 energy  input per  unit of output) indicates  that  the existing technology  is
 in fact well along  the way  toward  reasonable practical energy effectiveness
 if it  is used.
     There  are two  generalizations that arise from  a technological  evalu-
 ation of energy savings  in  industrial processes.  One basic approach is
 to obtain more work from  the fuel  or more heat delivered per unit of fuel
 consumed and requires generally a  topping cycle  (or bottoming cycle) that
 results in mechanical  shaft power  used directly or  to produce electricity.

* ThermodynamiTlvalTaFiTity is~the maximum arnounfTof work "that can be	
done by a system starting from a given state and ending  up in stable
equilibrium with the atmosphere. (10).

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                                 12-21
                                 Table V

                     COMPARISON  OF  SPECIFIC  FUEL  CONSUMPTION

                       OF  KNOWN  PROCESSES  WITH THEORETICAL

                       MINIMUM FOR  SELECTED  U.S.  INDUSTRIES
               1968
             Specific
               Fuel
            Consumption
             (Btu/ton)
                   Theoretical
 Potential        .   Minimum
  Specific          Specific Fuel
Fuel  Consumption   Consumption
Using Technology     Based Upon
Existing in 1973   Thermodynamic       _
   (Btu/ton)       Availability Analysis
                      (Btu/ton)
Iron and Steel
Petroleum
Refining
I Paper
: Primary
| Alum in urn
i Product ion***
I
' Cement
26.5 x 106
4.4 x 106
*39.0 x 106
190 x 106
7.9 x 106
i
17.2 x 106
3.3 x 106
*23.8 x 10^
152 x 106
4.7 x 106
6.0 x 1.06
0.4 x TO6
**Greater than -0.2xlOf-
Snialler than +0.1x10''
25.2 x 106
0.8 x 106
*  Includes waste products consumed as fuel  by paper industry.

** Negative value means that no fuel is required.

***. Does not include effect of.scrap recycling.

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                                       12-22
   The other is the use of heat recuperators to reduce waste heat and increase
   overall efficiency.  Both are capital-intensive investments but involve
   essentially well  known technology.
        Four cases have been  analyzed  which show the  cost  and  energy  savings
   Possibly  by  a  technological  change'1').   The  four  cases  are  (1)  heat  re-
   cuperation for  a  refinery,  (2) topping cycle  to produce  mechanical work
   for an  amrconia  plant,  (3) S02 scrubber to allow use of high sulfur coal,
   and (4) double  glazing of residential structures.   The energy savings
  and costs for these four cases are summarized in Table VI.
       At prices of around $1.SO/106 Btu the investments in equipment to
  reduce energy consumption in the  refinery and  ammonia  plant  are reason-
  able investments even after  reducing the  savings by the  taxes  paid  on
  profits  resulting  from the  increased energy  productivity  of  the  plants.
  in  large energy  intensive industries  these examples  indicate that current
  prices should stimulate capital investment in  increased energy productivity
  Approximately 45%  of U.S. energy consumption is in the industrial sector and
  of this  45r. is used to produce process steam and 3
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Case Study HO     Fuel & Price
                  Capital  Investment
                  per daily BOE saved
                  and annual  savings
                          After tax return
                          (15-year straight line
                          depreciation - 48% taxes)
                                            Comments
Refinery
(heat recuperation)
Ammonia plant
(turbine topping
     cycle)
residual oil
or crudefioil
$1.50/10° Btu
natural gas

$1.50/105 Btu -

$2.00/105 Btu -
$6,800 capital
$3,300 annual  saving
                        28%
$24,000 capital

$ 8>40° annual saving
$11,500
                        15%

                        21%
                          Excellent
                          investment
                          Below .<;i.50/i06  Btu
                          not a good in-
                          vestment.   Not
                          feasible at cur-
                          rent low price of
                          natural  gas in the
                          Southwest.
Double glazing
residential
structure  (Norway
climate)
fuel oil

$2.50/1O6 Btu
$31,400 capital

$ 5,300 annual saving
                  (No taxes charged)

                  10% (15-yr depreciation)
                  13.5% (30-yr depreciation
                          Does not account
                          for improved comfort
                          factor and hence pos-
                          sibly reduced thermo-
                          stat settings
                                                                                                                       ro
                                                                                                                       CO
S02 Scrubbers

40% duty cycle
of plant
2% sulfur coal
$10-$15/ton
delivered to
Eastern markets
Capital
  Cost
 Operating
   Cost
$14/annual  $1.40/annual
    BOE
$58/annual
    ton
      BOE
$5.82/annual
      ton
  Cost of cleanup

$0.56/106Btu (ass^pas

$13.50/ton   capital
              charge)
Allows use of Eastern
high sulfur coal  at
competitive prices
to low sulfur coal
or low sulfur oil
                                                 TABLE VI

                              COMPARISON OF FOUR ENERGY CONSERVATION SCHEMES

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                                     12-24
  merits if conservation is the goal.
       The use of the scrubbers to  make  high  sulfur  coal  available  as
  shown in Table VI is a possible investment at  current  high  prices  for  pet-
  roleum.   The potential  for  using  high  sulfur  Eastern  coal  in  Eastern
  markets  by  adapting a scrubber technology helps  to  relieve dependence on
  foreign  fuels.   The major difficulty with this technology  is  that it  is
  still not fully  developed and  requires substantial  lead time  for  its  in-
  stallation.  The unproven nature of the technology  and hence  uncertainty
 of cost  projections may  require special incentives  for this technology
 to develop and be adapted rapidly.  Considering that 20% of the total
 energy consumption  is coal and that over half of this is high sulfur
 coal  the gains for  keeping high sulfur coal  a viable fuel  source are
 large.
      The above four cases do not include  any study of the  transportation
 industry which consumes 25%  of the total  energy.   Here examples  of increased
 energy efficiency are obvious since  automobiles  are currently  on the market
 with  fuel efficiencies ranging from  below  10 miles  per gallon  to as  high
 as  40 miles  per  gallon.   With the  national average  for fuel efficiency
 around 12 miles  per  gallon the  issue is clearly  how  to  shift consumer
 purchasing habits.   The  gasoline shortage brought a  short term shift in
 the last  quarter  of  1973  and  first quarter of  1974  but  this seems  to be
 abating somewhat.  Elimination  of shortages, price reductions  on larger
 size  automobiles  and  a lack of  well designed domestic small cars with
 engines and gear  trains matched for high efficiency  all have blunted the
 short  trends to lighter more efficient automobiles.   A factor of two in
 total  efficiency  is  technically possible and  incentives to  stimulate
 such changes in consumer buying and use is an area whore large  potential
gains  exist.

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                                   12-25
     Another major factor that is impacting the effectiveness  of energy
utilization is the move to clean up the environment.   The Clean  Air Act
and the regulation of thermal  discharges into water bodies are resulting
in significant losses in energy efficiency.  Emission control  from large
combustion facilities is requiring S02 scrubbers and participate removal
or shifts to clean fuels.  The result is a loss of 2 to 10 points in
efficiency or the use of scarce and expensive fuel.  The control of emis-
sions from automobiles has also resulted initially in reduced gasoline
mileage of the average vehicle fleet.  The limiting of thermal discharges
in water bodies particularly zero thermal emissions requiring cooling
towers, lead to losses in power plant efficiency of 2 to  5 points.  In
many  instances where environmental regulations are being  imposed a nega-
tive  impact .of energy efficiency  has occurred.  This  is  not due to phys-
ical  laws  in most  instances,  but  does  require  that designs be modified  to
meet  energy  efficiency and also  environmental  emissions.  A coordinated
attack  on  both is  a  requirement  if the  environmental  improvement doesn't
occur at  the cost  of energy effectiveness.   Planning  and adequate  time
for  change is essential.
      In all  areas  of energy consumption there  appear  to  be no technological
limitations  that  rule  out increases  in energy  productivity.   In some  cases  there
 is the need  for  Increased investments  to improve  energy  productivity.   In
others change in  buying  and use habits are required.   The most  effective
way to effect changes  in each case involves data  that is often  not available
 plus complex sociological and technological  trade-offs involving incentives,
 price changes,  and usually long lead times for change.

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                                      12-26
   Economic  Models  of  Energy  Demand
        Forecasting energy demand  has  been a  primary objective of energy
   supply companies throughout their history.  Until recently the best
   projections have been essentially trend extrapolation modified by consumer
   incomes and growth  in real  GNP.  Recently economists have focused substantial
  effort on more effective demand projections that included technological
  change,  price changes, as  well  as the influence of real income and GNP.
  The most  advanced model  of  this type is  the DRI model  of Hudson  and
  Jorgenson^12).   This model  has  been  used  to check the  estimated  growth
  scenarios  prepared  by the Ford  Energy Policy Project(13).
       The DRI  energy  model is presented in detail  in the  DRI report to the
  Energy Policy Project: "Energy  Resources and Economic Growth," DRI,
  September  30, 1973<12>.  The model is based on  an interindustry model of the
  U.S. economy in which production and consumption are broken down in the fol-
  lowing pattern:
      (0    Production is classified into nine sectors,  each of which is
 represented by a production  submodel.  These nine sectors are  agriculture
 (together  with nonfuel mining  and construction), manufacturing,  transport,
 services  (together with trade and communication),  coal  mining,  crude
 petroleum and  natural gas extraction, petroleum  refining,  electric  utilities,
 and  gas utilities.
      (TO   The nine producing sectors  purchase inputs of primary factors -
 imports, capital services and labor services.
      (110   The nine  producing sectors must also purchase inputs from
each other, e.g. manufacturing makes purchases from transport and the trans-
port sector makes purchases  of  manufacturing  output.
     (iv)   The  nine producing sectors  then  sell  their  net output  to  final

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                                    12-27
users - personal1 consumption, investment, government and exports.
     These components are then integrated within an interindustry, or
input-output model.  The feature of input-output analysis is that trans-
action flows are brought into consistency so that each sector produces
exactly that amount needed to meet final demands as well as the inter-
mediate demands from other producing sectors.  The critical feature of
the DPI energy model is that the patterns of input into the producing
sectors, as well as the final demand levels, are functions of  prices.
     The DRI model was used  to examine and compare the general economic
environment corresponding to the three alternative energy growth  patterns
being  studied by the Energy  Policy Project.  These growth patterns are  (i)
historical growth  where past energy supply and  demand patterns are assumed
to  continue into the future, (ii)  "technical fix"  growth where energy
conservation  practices  and  known energy  saving  technologies  are  incorporated
into  production  and  consumption  patterns to  the extent  possible  within
existing  life styles and  economic  organization, and  (iii)  "zero  energy
growth"  (ZEG)  where,  in addition to the  technical  fix measures,  changes
 in  life  styles  and economic structure  are introduced in order to move
 towards  a situation  of constant per capita   energy consumption.
      The results of simulations of U.S.  economic growth over the 1975-
 2000 period for energy supply and  demand conditions involving moves  from
 historical growth patterns to an "energy technical fix" growth path, and
 from this to a "zero energy growth"  path yielded the following main  con-
 clusions^   :
      (i)  Substantial  economies in U.S. energy input are possible within
 the existing structure of the economy and without having to sacrifice
                                                        '   (
 continued growth of real incomes.                              (
       (ii)  This energy conservation does have  a non-trivial economic cost

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                                     12-28
 in terms of a reduction in real income levels vis-a-vis the historical

 growth position; in 2000 real income under technical fix growth and zero

 energy growth are both about 4% below the historical growth figure.

      (iii)  Adaptation to a less energy intensive economy will not have

 a cost in terms of reduced employment, in fact it will  result in a slight

 increase in demand for labor.  This, with the reduced real  output, means

 that labor productivity is reduced, and correspondingly, real  wages are

 slightly lower in technical  fix or zero energy growth than  in  historical

 growth.

      (iv)   Adaptation  to  a less energy intensive  economy will  not  have a

 cost in  terms  of total  capital  requirements;  in fact, technical  fix or

 zero energy growth  should  require  slightly  less total capital  input than

 historical  growth.

      (v)   The  shift  to  reduced  energy  use will result in  an  increase  in

 rates of  inflation  from a  predicted  3.8% a year under historical growth

 to 4.1% under  zero  energy  growth.

     The quantitative economic  changes  involved in the move  to technical

 fix  or zero  energy growth  are summarized in Table VII.

                            TABLE VII(14)

               Summary of Differences Between Growth Paths
                 (percentage difference in the level of
                 each variable between growth paths)

               Historical vs.       Historical  vs.          Technical Fix vs
              Technical Fix       Zero Energy Growth     Zero Energy Growth
            ^85         2000     1985          2000      1985        2000

Real  GNP    -1.64
Price of GNP 2.00
Employment   0.90
Capital

            ~1>02
            -16.6
•3.78
4.81
1.52
1.83
-37.7
-1.61
2.26
1.25
-0.88
-19.3
-3.54
6.03
3.32
-1.17
-46.1
0.03
0.25
0.35
0.15
-3.2
0.25
1.17
1.77
0.67
-13.4

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                                  12-29
     The DRI study of the Ford Energy Policy Project scanning to the year
2000 indicates only minor economic consequences of reduced energy consumption.
Inherent in these projections are the exogenous impacts of technological
change in the energy coefficients of the input-output table.  A detailed
investigation of the technical feasibility of changes implied by the model
was not done, although other studies of the FEPP could be useful for such
analysis.  The model was designed so that price changes would drive the
system by being the trigger mechanism for changes in energy coefficients.
     The zero growth scenario to the year 2000 projects a 46% decrease in
energy consumption with less than a 4% decrease in historically projected
GNP.  This means an increase in energy productivity or energy shifts
corresponding to a factor of 2.  The use of 1973 technology in the industrial
sector fully utilized was projected in Table IV to have potentially a 1.5
factor improvement in energy productivity.  The DRI model thus indirectly
assumes a mix of consumption shifts and process development or even
invention between now and the year 2000 to give the gain  in energy technology
the economists  have charted  in this study.
     The DRI projection that the economy does  not need to be severely
impacted by  coordinated programs  in reducing energy consumption  is a
challenge to both  industries and technologists that may not  be  easy  to
meet.
     There  is another factor  in  the DRI model  that  is  cause  for  concern.
There  is substantial price  elasticity  derived  from  past data in  a  period
of decreasing prices in  real  terms.   If the  short range lack of  response
to price which  is  now starting to  show up  after  the  shortages  have dis-
appeared is  a true  indicator  the estimated  price  elasticity from past data

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                                    12-30
 may be over-optimistic.  Thus only price driven changes in energy use
 patterns and development of new technology may not yield the results
 indicated by the model.

 Taxes of Natural Resource Producers
     The best known tax provision affecting the energy industry is
 percentage depletion.   Under the income tax provision other industries
 are permitted to deduct the cost of capital  assets that are used  up  in
 production (usually called  depreciation).   Natural  resource producers,
 however,  have the privilege of  treating a  part of  their income as tax-
 exempt,  through  percentage  depletion,  even if  it far  exceeds  the  cost
 of the  assets (the wells  or mines)  being used  up.
      Percentage  depletion is  important  for oil  and  gas.  These products
 have  the  highest percentage depletion  rate - 22 percent  of  gross  income.
 Percentage depletion is based on  the value of  resources  as  they come out
 of  the ground, and  only to  a minor  extent  applies  to  the value  added by
processing and transportation.  The percentage depletion rate  for  uranium
 is  dtso 22 percent.  The rate on  oil shale  is  15 percent; on coal  it is
 10 percent.
     Percentage  depletion has some  limitations.  The allowance can only
 be  applied to 50  percent of the net income from the property.  Further,
a taxpayer using  percentage depletion gives up the opportunity to deduct
cost depletion on some relatively small part of the actual  costs that were
 incurred in developing the mineral property.  Finally, percentage depletion
is  slightly reduced in value for many taxpayers because, since 1969,  those
who use it may be subject  to a minimum tax.  For oil and gas the net
benefit overall  is about 15  percent of the  gross income from producing  the

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                                    12-31
natural  resource; for uranium it is about 10 percent;  for coal,  about  5
percent.
     Further income tax relief arises from special  rules that allow
current deductions for intangible drilling and development costs for oil
and gas and certain exploration and development costs for other minerals.
The differential benefit occurs because capital investments in other
businesses are deductible only gradually, as the investment asset wastes
away.   A current deduction is worth more than  a deduction spread over the
life of the asset  because of the  "time value"  of money.  As a rule of thumb,
the current deduction  is twice  as  valuable.
     The special  tax benefits of  percentage  depletion,  deduction of in-
tangibles  for  oil  and  gas, and  the normal  investment  credit  for tangible
drilling costs are equivalent  to  an investment credit of 49  percent.
 An analysis of the tax benefits for investment in  mineral  production  which
 expresses  the outcomes in  relation to capital  investment indicates that
 these benefits are in the  general neighborhood of a 50 percent investment
 credit for oil,  gas and coal.
      Natural-resource tax provisions each have important differences.
 The differences arise in part because percentage depletion is based
 primarily on the  value of resources as they come out of the ground; in  general,
 it does not apply to the value added by refining, transportation, whole-
 saling, and retailing.  The tax  benefits of expanding  drilling and develop-
 ment differ greatly among resources.  In general, oil  and gas  production
 entail a  relatively high share of capital  cost compared with labor costs;
 production of coal, uranium and  oil  shale  entail  a  relatively  low capital
 cost  compared with  labor cost.

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                                    12-32
       If  all  the  savings  from  the  natural  resource  tax  provisions were  passed
  along  to the consumer  (say a  steam electric power  plant)  in the form of
  price  reduction, the percentage reduction  in fuel  cost for electricity
  generated from each fuel would be approximately:
                          Oil             13.2%
                          Natural Gas     11.5%
                          Coal              3.4%
                          Gas from Coal    1.4%
                          Uranium          2.8%
                         Oil  from Shale   4.5%
      These differences  in delivered prices as  related to the tax benefits are
 one flaw of the present income tax provisions  since energy incentives
 work very unevenly among the  different resources that go  into  energy pro-
 duction.
      The  critical  features  of the  tax treatment of  foreign operations
 of the  oil  and gas  industry are these:
      1.   The  foreign tax  credit is allowed for  payment  of  taxes  to  the
 host countries (which are members  of  OPEC), even though  it is  dubious
 whether these charges are income taxes.
      2.   Percentage depletion  and  the deduction  of  intangible  drilling
 expenses  are  allowed for  foreign operations.
      The  allowance of percentage depletion and  intangible  drilling
 deductions on  foreign oil production  is a complex problem  because of the
 total pattern  of foreign  taxes on oil.  Foreign  taxes on oil are greater
 than  the  U.S.  tax on oil  would be even if U.S.  tax  law disallowed per-
centage depletion and intangible deductions on  foreign operations.   These
payments to host countries jumped astronomically during 1973 from about
$1.50 per barrel to $7  per barrel  - the government  take in Saudi Arabia

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                                    12-33
on Arabian light 30° oil.
     Under our present system of foreign tax credit for income tax (or
taxes "in lieu of" income taxes). credit is extended to all charges imposed
by OPEC governments.  The form of the OPEC charge is a hypothetical income
and cost calculation that amounts to a flat charge without regard to actual
profit.  The OPEC charge stipulates that about 20 percent of the payment
to OPEC will be called a royalty, which is only a deductible cost to the
oil company and not  eligible  for the foreign tax credit.
      Foreign tax  credits are  far greater than the amount allowed against
 income  from producing oil and gas.  Under  certain circumstances, the excess
 foreign tax credit  can  be used to  reduce U.S. tax on  other foreign  income.
 The  result is  that  the  extension of the natural-resource tax  advantages
 to foreign operations provide U.S.  oil  and gas  companies operating in  the
 OPEC area with some tax advantages other  than  those derived from producing
 oil  and gas.   This is shown graphically in Table VIII where an average tax
 of 39% exists for all industry but only 11% using current  law for the petroleum
 producing industry.
      A natural question is what is the influence of the reduced taxes and
 who  shares the revenue shared.  One effect of percentage depletion
 and  deduction of intangibles  on the oil market is an  increase in the desire
 of companies to  invest  in more oil production.
      A necessary ingredient  for more exploration and  development  is
  acquisition of drilling rights on  lands with oil or  the prospects  of oil
  and  gas.   Because  the  supply of land with oil  prospects is limited, the  in-
  crease in bidding  should drive up  royalties.

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                                  12-34
                              TABLE VIII
 Alternative Effective Tax Rates on Oil  and Gas
 to All U.S. Corporation,  1968 (corporations wi
 Account
All Corpor.
     Actual
     1968
 Income  subject  to tax
    plus  excess  depletion
    plus  excess  of depreciation of
      intangibles  over  tax deduction
    less  foreign tax in excess
 Equals economic income
 Income Tax before  credits
    less  investment credit
    less  foreign tax credit
 Equals tax after credit
Tax after investment credit but
   before foreign  tax credit, as
   percent of economic  income
Tax after all credits  as  a
   percent of economic  income
                                          81.4
                                           4.9
                                            .6

                                            .6
                                          86.3
                                          39.7
                                          2.4
                                          3.7
                                         33.6
                                          43%
                                          39%
                                                Corporations compared
                                               th net income only)
                                                   Corporations .in crude
                                                   petroleum & natural  gas
                                                   Actual     Adjusted to
                                                    1968     present law
                                                             (Smil.)
4,651 -
2,990
420
(500-)
7,561
2,400
196
1,609
576
	 1'' T 1 	
5,222
2,421
420
(317)
7,747
2,673
196
1,792
881
                  29%

                   8%
32%

11%
Sources:  ^tjstTcs_ofJncome^
Internal Revenue Service.
Houston Petroleum Industry Research,  Inc.,  1972.
                                                    uS. Treasury  Dept  ,
                                                                       "
                                                                ^
                                         Arlington, Va,, 1973.

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                                    12-35

     The critical  characteristic of the supply of drilling  prospects  is
the "elasticity of supply."  Davidson, Falk, and Lee(  5'  have developed
an ingenious analysis of the relationship between royalty payments and supply
elasticity.  Their conclusion is that the supply situation  for onshore U.S.
drilling is such that the landowner share of net rents (that is, income  in
excess of drilling cost, including a normal  return on  capital) is about
25 percent; for offshore drilling on the U.S. outer continental shelf the
landowner share is close to 40 to 50 percent.
     The proposition that oil companies retain some of the economic rent
is supported by statistics.  McDonald's data show, for example, that in
the production business oil companies earn better than normal profits.
This evidence indicates that the benefits of percentage depletion are
divided in the following way: 40 percent to increased  royalties, possibly
10 percent to increased after-tax profits of oil companies, 50 percent to
price reduction.

CONCLUSION
     The previous sections  have looked briefly at current energy consumption
patterns, alternate energy  supply potentials, energy productivity and con-
servation, energy-economic  demand forecasting models, and energy taxes.
Even though the analysis undertaken of each of these topics  is relatively
superficial certain major characteristics of the U.S.  energy  system can
be identified:
     1.  Many incentives in  effect  for a long period of time  and still
operating with respect  to domestic  energy resource development reduce energy
prices.
     2.  The regulations that have  been developed in the last decade  to
maintain a clean  environment have  increased  energy consumption  or  shifted

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                                      12-36
  demand to the more scarce fuels.
       3.  The regulation and taxes developed for transportation have favored
  high energy consumption modes and have kept total  costs from being re-
  flected in the price paid by the user.
       4.   The regulation of the utility industries  has  ignored  the  marginal
  costs and prices  of competing energy  sources  in  rate  setting such  that
  some energy  sectors are subsidized  and  demand  artificially  stimulated.
       5.   Investments  to increase  energy productivity and conserve  re-
  sources are  effectively biased  negatively by some  subsidies  that reduce
  cost  of capital for energy supplies and  others that reduce the cost of
  energy use for some sectors of energy consumers.  The bias is at least a
  factor of two for many  energy suppliers and possibly even higher for
  some consuming sectors, particularly the automobile.
      6.  The technology exists for markedly improved productivity of
 energy in most industrial sectors and  for most consumer operated equipment.
 The time to change the capital stock of equipment and  the use patterns  of
 industry and  consumers is long and can be more  effectively measured in
 decades than  in years.
      7.   The  supply  of energy  fuels  is large both domestically  and  world
 wide.   The basic issue in  pricing  and  use priorities for energy  is  not
 resource availability  in the near  term but a mix  of environmental issues  and
 economic efficiency  both domestically  and world wide.
     The first issue that must be  faced  in addressing the questions of
conserving energy resources is why conserve?  The national policy since
the start of the industrial revolution  has been to exploit resources to
improve the U.S.  standard of living.   There is  growing  reason to doubt that

-------
                                   12-37
the historic practice of subsidizing energy suppliers or segments of energy
consumption is a wise policy.  If this is so many changes are required
in government taxing policy and regulations that allocate costs among
consumers.  The movement away from subsidies that stimulate energy con-
sumption may be enough to develop more efficient resource utilization
but this is by no means a certainty.  The difficulty of incentives or re-
gulations for consumption practices  is analogous to those introduced by
laws and regulations to clean up the environment.  The  total system  is
interactive and changes often prove  to be counterproductive.   Ample
evidence of this  phenomenon  exists  and some  learning  from past mistakes
 is needed.
      Key  factors  that  need  consideration in  developing  a  program to more
 effectively utilize energy  fuels are:
      1)  The capital  stock  of energy consuming equipment is large
          and has  been designed consistent with a historic price  developed
          by the energy supply industry.
      2)  Many energy fuels are intersubstitutable in many applications
          even in the relatively short term.  For example, natural gas
          and electricity in residential  commercial sectors, and residual
          oil and coal or distillates and natural gas in industry and
          electric power generation.  Pricing policies  that do not consider
          interfuel shifts may only cause changes among  fuels which may not
          be the  objective of a  resource conservation program.
       3)  Anticipating  future energy pricing  is  a key  segment of effective
          energy  planning and consumer decisions.  Because  of  long  lead
          times for changes  in  capital stocks and  also  the  long  lifetimes
          of  these stocks any changes from  past  trends  in energy availability
           or price must be  well  communicated to  consuming sectors.

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                                12-38
     For example, the automobile has one of the shortest effective
     lifetimes, approximately 10 years,  The time for design and pro-
     duction changes, however, adds another decade to make the effec-
     tive lifetimes for change as much as two decades.
4)   The design of energy consuming equipment is often effectively
     insulated from market prices of fuels.  For example, the home
     construction industries, consumer durables, commercial rental
     space, and urban growth stimulated by highway design are all
     influenced more by social factors, industry structure, and
     short run costs of capital  than energy markets.
5)  The establishment of environmental criteria and regulations to
    control air and water quality are separated from the energy
    market.  Thermal  additions to water bodies, SCL emissions from
    combustion facilities, and auto emissions all  have a first
    order influence on energy utilization.
6)  Energy demand and consumption is, not controlled by a single
    large macro-economic market but has very fine structure by
    region and user.   There are even marked differences among
    plants of the same general  type depending upon the mix of
    of output products or services performed and the quality of
    the resource inputs.   Energy use decisions  are required which
    involve very fine structure even for micro-economic analysis.
    Technology and  economics are closely intertwined and require
    case by case decisions for  optimal use of all  natural  and
    financial  resources.

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                                  12-39

     Considering the complexities involved in both the supplying and
consuming industry and the need for energy analysis at a very disaggregated
level it is very risky to establish broad policy guidelines for optimal
energy resource utilization.  Even so there does seem to be some guideline
that one can infer from the present availability of energy resources
coupled with historic pricing and use policies.

PROPOSED GUIDELINES
     1.  The optimal energy resource utilization for the U.S. will best
be developed by a policy that eliminates all subsidies to energy fuels and
that makes energy consuming equipment carry the full costs, social and
environmental, for the function  performed.
     2.  Energy subsidies  by regulation or taxation should not be changed
on a one shot  basis  but  should be  phased out in a  sequential manner over times
as long as a decade  with steps that are accurately known by the consumers
of energy, the manufacturers of  energy consuming  equipment and the  suppliers
of energy  fuels.
     3.  Incentives  to improve energy efficiency  of capital  stocks  should
accompany  elimination of energy  subsidies  (item 2) whenever  there  is  evi-
dence  that the market won't function properly  or  there  are solid  policy
reasons  for  accelerating change  for  social  or  environmental  reasons.
     4.  Changes  in  pricing patterns will  impact  some income  groups more
than others,  particularly  those  in the  lower income groups whose  budgets
 include  a  large  proportion  for  energy  fuels.   Some incentives  of tax
adjustments  are  needed during  periods of rapid capital  stock  adjustments  to
 increasing prices.   Research projection  of future energy fuel  pricing is
needed for consumers to  adjust their energy consuming equipment and energy
use  priorities effectively.

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                                      12-40

      5.  Biases in favor of domestic energy supplies may be desired for
 security or economic reasons.  When this is a goal the approach should in-
 volve taxes on competing energy supplies or other measures father than
 subsidies which lower domestic prices below domestic costs.
     Consumption of energy fuels based on the proposition that shortages
 are imminent is of doubtful  validity.   The  use of energy resources based  on
 their costs of discovery, production and distribution by an energy supply
 industry which is  treated equally  taxwise with all  other industries  should
 lead  to  wise resource utilization.   The  transition  from highly  distorted
 market pricing to  ones  reflecting  all  the costs  will  be difficult  and  cause
 all energy  industries to  make  major  shifts  in  traditional operating  policies
 Many  arguments  will be  given that continuation of present priorities of
 resource  subsidies  is essential to guarantee the vast amount of capital
 needed for energy  supplies.  Such arguments will almost surely defeat any
 program of energy conservation based on the true value of energy resources.
The above five guidelines will require difficult adjustments for both
consumers and suppliers but not adjusting appears to carry with it even
greater problems for the U.S. industrial  society.

-------
   Force on  Energy of the "atlonal Academy of Engineering  U
2
3.  Ehrlich, Paul  R.,
    also Ehrlich,
    vlronraen.  San Francisco:  W.H. Freeman
4      r, Oay W. ,

    1971.
                                     .  Cambridge, Mass. :   Wrignt-Allen Press,
 5.   Barnett, Harold J.,
     Division 1, 9th World
     ference, 1974.

 6.   The_OfLDajl£. Friday, August 2, 1974.

                     D      Fnprav/Generation  Edition, July,  ly/'t, p- |U*


 8.   EJectrical_World_,  September 15, 1974, p.  20.

 9.   ~^^^rml,  September  16, 1974,  "Newsletter"  section.

                     ~       », MejitTaijFpI_Eifjctiy^^
                                   f!ermo Electron torpTTl^iK  1974-
"'
 12'
 ».
  »•
  «•
          S
L.  Wilson,  Director.  1974

                  *   >i
beTubTsned' lafeln  1974
Mass.
                                                                  ,  Carrol,
                                                     Economic Growth.  To

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                               13-1                Peter Griffith
                                                   Professor,  Mechanical Engineering
                                                   June, 1973
                   (LECTURE NOTES FOR A SUMMER COURSE)
                         Appendix Paper No. 13
                         MIT Energy Laboratory
             RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL ENERGY UTILIZATION
INTRODUCTION
     As one looks at the problems of pollution and resource depletion
which make energy use increasingly expensive, it is impossible to avoid
looking at ways in which energy utilization can be improved.  Energy
utilization is a very large field.  In these notes we shall restrict
our attention to the residential and commercial sector.  We will show
what we are doing, what we could do with the application of existing
technology 'and what the ultimate thermodynamic limits are for accom-
plishing the same ends which we now are.

CURRENT ENERGY UTILIZATION
     A graphic representation of where our energy comes from, in what
form it is used, and where it goes is displayed on Figure 1.*  Here
the importance of the industrial and residential and commercial sector
can be seen.  Approximately one quarter of the energy is used in the
form of electricity while three quarters is used as heat.  This is im-
portant because it points to a way of conserving energy by using the
waste heat from electric power generation and industrial processes for
heating and space conditioning needs.
     We can also see, on Figure  (1), the great variety of uses for this
energy, with space heating as the only large use.  This means improve-
ments  in utilization will not be accomplished in a stroke but only by
the patient plugging of a lot of small leaks in the system which we
now have.
      Figure  (1) does not show enough detail  for one to see how the
 *   Cook, Earl,  "The Flow of Energy  in an Industrial Society" Scientific
    American Vol.  224, No.  3, p.  135, September, 1971.
                                   13-1

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   PRODUCTION      GROSS CONSUMPTION
   HYDROPOWER 2.7
                                                                                  ENERGY LOST IN GENERATION AND
                                                                                   TRANSMISSION OF ELECTRICITY
                                           ENERGY CONSUMED
                                            FOR ELECTRICITY
                                                17.0
                                                                         END-USE CONSUMPTION
 NATURAL GAS AND
NATURAL-GAS LIQUIDS     24.3
      23.4
                                                                               J	LH^nlll'in
                                                                                   WATER HEATING
                                                                             " -s  MACHINES. APPLIANCES
                                                                                   AUTOMOBILES.
                                                                                  TRUCKS. BUSES
                                           FUEt
                                            IN END USES
                                               4TJ
                                                                                  BLAST FURNACES
                                                                                    SMELTERS
             Figure 1:   The sources,  transformations, uses  and  final  form of energy as  used
                           in  the  USA in 1970.   The  units  are  BTU/year x 1CT15  for  all the numbers
                           shown.   (Reference 1)

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                                  13-3
minor uses for energy are divided up so Table (1)* is included.   Here
both the energy used to generate electricity and the energy used dir-
ectly as heat are included in the total shown in the last column.  Once
again it is clear that the end uses are spread over a large number of
small applications.  If we turn our attention to only the residential
and commercial applications, we can see that space heating is far the
most important use.  The lighting component, for instance, is included
in the "other" category on Table I.
     How well are we using this energy in the various devices which
we are using to accomplish these ends?  Reference (2) again gives some
estimates.  The estimates are reproduced on Table II.  In this case
the efficiencies referred to are the efficiencies compared to a similar,
but thermodynamically perfect, device doing the same job.  For instance,
a heat pump would use less energy than a boiler to heat a home.   This
doesn't show on Table II, however.  All that enters on Table II is the
boiler efficiency, i.e. the fraction of the heating value of the fuel
that ends up in the house.  Though some of the efficiencies are low,
the potential energy savings obtainable from simply improving these
figures are not large enough to allow one to hope for a major improve-
ment in energy utilization by simply improving appliance efficiencies.
The system in which these devices operate must be changed too.
     Another important factor we must keep in mind is the time scale
for these changes.  Typically a power plant is run for 30 or 40 years
before replacement.  It is very unlikely that an existing power plant
would have a back fitted waste heat utilization scheme built on it.
The commitment we make to a system now will last for 30 years.  The
home heating system has a similar lifetime.  With such a long time
scale, any changes will be .long in working out.  Decisions to change
a system which are made now will not be completely implemented until
30 years from now.
     Not only is the consumption of energy by use important but also
the growth rate of each use.  If we consider the various applications
 *   "Patterns of Energy Consumption in the United States" Stanford Re-
    search Institute, January 1972.

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13-4
Table I
ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES BY END USE
1960-1968
(Trillions of Btu and Percent per Year)
Percent of
Sector and End Use
Residential
Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
Clothes drying
Refrigeration
Air conditioning
Other
Total
Commercial
Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
Refrigeration
Air conditioning
Feedstock
Othet
Total
Industrial
Process steam
Electric drive
Electrolytic processes
Direct heat
Feed stock
Other
Total
Transportation
Fuel
Raw Materials
Total
National Total
Consumption
1960

4,848
1,159
556
93
369
134
809
7,968

3,111
544
98
534
576
734
145
5,742

7,646
3,170
486
5,550
1,370
118
18,340

10,873
141
11,014
43,064
1968

6,675
1,736
637
208
692
427
1.241
11,616

4,182
653
139
670
1,113
984
1,025
8,766

10,132
4,794
705
6,929
2,202
198
24,960

15,038
146
15.184
60,526
Annual Rate
of Growth

4.12
5.2
1.7
10.6
8.2
15.6
5.5
4.8

3.8
2.3
4.5
2.9
8.6
3.7
28.0
5.4

3.6
5.3
4.8
2.8
6.1
6.7
3.9

4.1
0.4
4.1
4.3
National Total
1960

11.3%
2.7
1.3
0.2
0.9
0.3
1.9
18.6

7.2
1.3
0.2
1.2
1.3
1.7
0.3
13.2

17.8
7.4
1.1
12.9
3.2
0.3
42.7

25.2
0.3
25.5
100.0%
1968

11. 0%
2.9
1.1
0.3
1.1
0.7
2.1
19.2

6.9
1.1
0.2
1.1
1.8
1.6
1.7
i'4.4

16.7
7.9
1.2
11.5
3.6
0.3
41.2

24.9
0.3
25.2
100.0%
Note:  Electric utility consumption has been allocated to each end use.
Source:  Stanford Research Institute, using Bureau of Mines and other sources.
                              Reference 2

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                                          13-5
                               Table II
         TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY CONVERSION, BY END USE
                               (Percent)
                                   Natural     Petroleum
                           Coal      Gas       Products     Electricity
Residential
  Space heating             55%       75%          63%            95%

  Water heating             15*      6*           50            M
                               *      37           37 t          75
  Cooking

  Clothes drying
                              *      47           47 t           57
                               *         *            *          50
  Refrigeration
                               *      -»n              *          50
  Air conditioning             *  ,    ->u
                               *         *            *             *
  Other
                           70*      77           76
 Commercial
   Space heating

   Water heating                * .      "           5°            "
                                *       37           37 t          75
   c°°king                                *             .           50
   Refrigeration
                                *      ™              *           50
   Air conditioning                    JU
                                *         tt           *              ft
   Other
Industrial
  Process steam production  70
  Generation of electrical
                            88 §
    —tiy                     1         *            *          90
  Electric drive
                                       88 §         88 §             *
                                *         *            *             **
    Electrolytic  process

    Direct heat
                                *         tt   .        tt            tt
    Other


  Utility                     37 tt     3*.**         36**
  *  Fuel shown is not commonly used for end use shown.
  ±  It has been assumed that water heating and space heating are co-
     functions when coal is fired (per SRI) .
                   10..... .CO., «. ...ll"ri to proc...

   **  Indeterminate.

   tt  Since  a multitude of uses are  included, it is infeasible to produce an
      efficiency figure.
      between fuel on a relative basis.


                                 Reference 2

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                                    13-6
  we find  wide variations  in  the  growth  rates  for  the different uses.
  Table III*  shows  this.   It  is evident  that air-conditioning is an im-
  portant  use which is  also growing very rapidly.
       If  we  look at  the whole field of  residential and commercial energy
  utilization we see  two distinct ways in which utilization can be
  improved.
       1)  We can reduce the demand for  heat or power by better design
  of the buildings, devices or machines  using  these forms of energy.
       2)  We can use thermodynamically  different systems, a system which
  approaches  a limit of performance different from either the pure work
  producing (with Carnot limits)  or the pure heat producing devices
 working devices which we now have.   It is the second alternative which
 we wish to pursue here.

 ENERGY EFFICIENT  SYSTEMS
      Typically, at this  time in  the  country,  the  demands for home or
 commercial heat are supplied by  fossil  fuel heated boilers while  the
 demands for  power  are supplied by electricity generated  in plants
 which do  not supply anything else.  This  is an unnecessarily ineffic-
 ient  system, in that the  waste heat from  the  power generation could
 supply most  or all of  the needs  for home  heating.  This  could be  done
 with  only a  very small penalty in thermodynamic performance for the
 combined  system.   Figure  2**  shows this.
      An integrated system distributing  both heat and power is called
 a total energy system.  We shall look at what total energy systems can
 do for us first.
      If we generate our power using fuel cells rather than power cycles
 using  a working fluid  like water, we are able to by-pass the second law
 limits of the Carnot cycle.   Approximately 40% of the heating value of
 a fuel is converted into power in a conventional modern steam power
*  Miller, A.J., "Use of Steam-Electric Power Plants to Provide Ther-
   mal Energy to Urban Areas" ORNL-HUD-14,  January 1971.
** Beall, S.E. Jr.   "Uses of Waste Heat" ASME Paper 70-WA/Ener-6.

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13-7
Table III
GROWTH IN ENERGY CONSUMED, BY SECTOR AND
1960 and 1968
(Trillions of Btu)
I960 1968
Purchased
Electrical
ru-wAi**1 Rnercv
Residential
Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
Clothes drying
Refrigeration
Air Conditioning
Other
Total
Commercial
Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
Air conditioning
Feedstock
Other
Total
, Industrial
Process steam
Electricity
generation
Direct heat
Feedstock
Total
Electric utility
Transportation
Total
L» At «W*> «..»•,— ffj
4,795 29
730 155
360 71
29 23
nil 261
nil 26
nil 177
5,914 742
3,272
226
27
43
734
nil
4,302

10,795

350
2,210
1.370
14,725
7,159
10.964
43,064
nil
nil
23 .
226
271
520





1,306
(2,586)
18
\ J -_ «vnj4il*
Purchased
Electrical
Total Direct Energy 	
4,824
885
431
52
261
26
177
6,656
3,272
226
50
269
734
271
4,822





16,031
4,573
10.982
43,064
• #••!«« ftf t
6,194
1,125
412
67
nil
nil
nil
7,798
4,214
371
61
172
984
nil
5,802

12,524

410
4,212
2.202
19,348
12,443
15.136
60,527
dectricitl
164
223
78
51
354
66
454
1,390
nil
nil
79
323
677
1,079





2,043
(4,530)
	 18
END USE*
Average Annual
Rate of Growth
1960-68
(percent)
Purchased
Electrical
Total Direct Energy Total
6,358 3.3%
1,348 5.6
490 1.7
118 11.0
354 n.a.
66 n.a.
454 n.a.
9,188 3.5
4,214 3.2
371 6.4
140 10.7
495 18.9
984 3.7
677
6,881 3.8
In
. *7

8.4
61
• J-
21,391 3.5
7,913 7.2
15.154 A.I
60,527 4.'3
24.0% 3.5%
4.7 5.4
1.2 1.6
10.5 10.8
3.9 3.9
12.3 12.3
12.5 12.5
8.2 4.1
•3.2
6.4
16.7 13.7
4.6 7.9
3.7
12.1 12.1
9.6 4.5





5.8 3.7
7.3 7.1
— 4.1
4.3
t  Purchased electricity not allocated separately.
Source:  Bureau of
,  Stanford  Research Institute




                          Reference  2

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                                        13-8
  10
                                                                   400
                                                                                       o
                                                                                        (0
                                                                                        o
                                                                                       •H
                                                                                        M
                                                                                       4-1
                                                                                        U

                                                                                       tH
                                                                                       W

                                                                                       O
                                                                                       CO
                                                                                       CQ
                                                                                       
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                                  13*9
plant.  If fuel cells are used which are run on a selected fuel like
hydrogen, the efficiency of conversion of free energy,  rather than en-
thalpy, for fuel cells can be as high as 80%.  Fuel cells clearly have
the potential to do a much better job than we are doing now.
     If we go one step further, we can replace furances supplying heat
by heat pumps and an additional savings is possible.
     In what follows, we shall look at the thermodynamic potential for
each of these alternatives assuming that:
     1)  Heat and power can be stored for any length of time in any
         amount.
     2)  There are no conversion losses, i.e. the machines are thermo-
         dynamically perfect.
     3)  Heat transfer can be accomplished with negligible temperature
         differences.
     Consider, for example, a small house using oil for heat, gas for
cooking and hot water, and electricity for lighting and small appli-
ances.  The fuel demands for the house are the following:

                                TABLE IV

                 Utility Consumption for a Small House

Oil  -  100  gas/month                 or               14 x 10   BTU/mo
Gas  -  3000 ft3/month               or               3 x 106  BTU/mo
Electricity                         or               1 x 106  BTU/mo
                                      TOTAL:        18 x  106 BTU/mo

 In order to provide electricity at a rate equivalent  to  1 x 10  BTU/mo,
 it is necessary to burn fuel with a heating value of  approximately
 4 x 10  BTU/month, because of losses in generation, transmission, and
 distribution.  The total fuel consumption is as follows: Total for  se-
 parate heat and work systems = 21 x 10  BTU/month.
      Now let us consider what we could do if waste heat  were  used for
 heating.  Let us assume that 1/3 of the gas is used for  cooking and
 2/3 is used for hot water, and all of the oil is used for space heating.
 The net heat (hot water and space heating) demand is then 16  x 10

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                                   13-10
  BTU/mo while electricity demand  is  2  x  106  BTU/month.  The ratio of  these
  two is such that  a very inefficient prime mover  could be used  to provide
  all the electric  power  and have  sufficient  waste heat left over for  all
  heat needs.   If we adopt this system, the total  fuel consumption will be
  as  in Table V.
                                  TABLE V
             Improved Total Energy System Energy Consumption
 Electricity                                      2 x 106 BTU/mo
 Heat                                            16 x 106 BTU/mo
 TOTAL:                                          18 x 106 BTU/mo

      So a real savings is possible.   This is the savings possible if
 we go to a total energy system with waste heat utilization of some
 form.
      Now let us look at the fuel consumption with the ultimate system,
 fuel cells for power generation, and heat pumps for heating.   In order
 to evaluate this system it is necessary to specify the temperature at
 which the heat is to be supplied.  Let  us choose a temperature of
 150° F for the heat and an outside  temperature of  30° F (average for
 a  heating season).
      A heat pump operating between the  outside at  30° F and the need
 at 150° F has  a coefficient of  performance of
 COP = Useful heat       =        T        _   610 _
          Work                 if	~~   ~   120 "   5'1
                              Ll ~ L2
 So the  total power which must be supplied  is as shown  in the right hand
 column  of Table VI.
                                 TABLE VI
£S§nd                                               with heat pumps
Electricity  2 x  106 BTU/mo         =                2 x 1Q6 BTU/mo
Electricity
for Heat    16 x 106/(5.1)          =              3>1 x 1Q6 BTU/mo
TOTAL:                                             5.1 x 106 BTU/mo

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                                   13-11
     Now the process used to convert chemical energy to electric power
in a fuel cell is fundamentally very different from that which is used
in a power plant.  It is the free energy change from fuel to products
rather than the enthalpy change which counts.  In order to compare this
all electric-fuel cell system with one which uses the fuel's heating
value it is necessary to choose a fuel.  Let us choose n-octane CgH-g
as the fuel.  For this fuel it happens that the difference between the
free energy and the enthalpy change as the fuel is reacted to carbon
dioxide and water is negligible so we can calculate the fuel demands
for these needs quite simply.  This also means the heat interaction
with the environment is negligible.  For octane at 298° K the respective
enthalpy and free energy changes in going from oxygen and octane to
carbon dioxide and water vapor are:
          -19,029 BTU/lb of Octane  (Enthalpy Change)
          -19,500 BTU/lb of Octane  (Free Energy Change)
When these values are converted into equivalent fuel consumptions the
results are as shown in Table VII.
                                TABLE VII
   Equivalent Fuel Demands for Three Types of Systems for Small House
Heat and Electricity
Independently Supplied                          1,100 Ib CH^/month
Waste Heat Utilization                            945 Ib/month
Fuel Cell-Heat Pump                               262 Ib/month

It is clear that the advantages of going to a total energy system are
appreciable and to a fuel cell system are very considerable.
     Let us discuss the alternatives a little further.  Any total
energy system organized on a single home basis does not look very
attractive.  The total demands for heat and electricity are not very
well balanced.  If a more diverse load (including industrial and trans-
portation) and a variety of heat and power sources are involved, the
potential for savings is greater.  About 30% of the fuel can be saved
instead of the 15% shown in the first two alternatives of Table VII.
The same potential is there if the appliances are changed so that the
heat and power loads are balanced.  Given the potential of fuel

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                                    13-12
 economies of 15 to 30% for systems using waste heat and 75% for sys-
 tems using fuel also  - what are the problems which prevent adoption
 of these systems now?

 PROBLEMS WITH ENERGY EFFICIENT SYSTEMS
      Reference (3) is a recent study of a total energy system for a
 city at the latitude of Philadelphia.   It is a new city of 200,000
 people.  Costs were found to be marginally higher for the utilization
 of waste heat rather than those using  entirely separate furnaces and
 power systems.   No benefits for reduced pollution or the reduced fuel
 consumption (aside from cost)  were taken however.   It was found with
 an urban total energy system,  heat cost $1.98 to  $1.81/106 BTU while
 one burning fossil fuel to produce the heat needed gave costs of
 $1.70/106 BTU.
      Let's now take a look at  the  problems which  arise with energy
 efficient systems  which make  the cost  advantages  small.   The first
 problem arises  from the fact  that  the  loads for heat and  power are not
 in phase.   Figures (3)  through (9)*  show how the daily and  seasonal
 loads vary for  heat and electricity.   The steam demands for  the summer
 are much lower  than in  the winter while the steam  demand  tends to  peak
 in the  morning  while  the  power demand  peaks at night.  At  this time
 there is no satisfactory  way for storing  either the  heat or  the power
 so that the importance of  daily phase  differences  in demand  can be
 reduced.   Obviously if daily phase differences between heat  and  work
 cannot  be reduced,  yearly  swings cannot either.  In  essence  this means
 one must have substantial  excess capacity for most of the year  for
 both  heat and power.  It  is the large investment in a lightly utilized
 heat  distribution system which hurts the total energy system economics.
     When one turns to the problems asseciated with specific pieces of
 equipment, other difficulties arise.  Let us focus first on heat pumps.
*  Miller, A.J., "Use of Steam-Electric Power Plants to Provide Thermal
   Energy to Urban Areas" ORNL-HUD-14,  January 1971.

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-------
                                                      ORNL-DWG 70-7601
                                  ELECTRICAL LOAD
                                       COLDEST PM
                                                   COLDEST AM
          12    2    4    6
8   10    12   2   4
68   10   12
                                            CO
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Fig.  5:     Variations  in the Diurnal Electrical and Heating Load,

-------
   14,000
   12,000
  10,000
    8000
§   6000
    4000
    2000
                                                                  ORNL-DWG 70-7412
            MAXIMUM CAPACITY
           JAN.  9, 1968
                                 FEB. 8, 1967
                                    I   I  I
                                  TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
                                   TYPICAL FALL DAY
                                   TYPICAL SPRING DAY
            1   2345   67   8  9  10 11  12   123   456
                                                                 7  8  9  10 11   12
     Fig. 6:     New York  Steam System Load Curves  on Typical Days.   (in-
formation supplied by Consolidated Edison Company of New  York)

-------
                                                ORNL-DWG 70-7423
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                                                           ORNL-DWG 70-7409
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                                                             ORNL-DWG 70-7413
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                                                                               to
                                                                               I
             1000     2000    3000    4000     5000     6000    7000

                           TIME AT OR ABOVE INDICATED LOAD (hr)
8000   8760
     Fig. 9:    New York  Steam System Loads for Calendar Years 1966  and
1967.   (Information supplied by Consolidated  Edison Company of New  York)

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                                     13-20
   These  are now stock  items manufactured by all  the major air conditioning
   equipment manufacturers.  Most of  them have about the same rated capa-
   city as air conditioners as they have as heat  pumps.  Typically they
   reject heat to the atmosphere when operating as air conditioners and
   take heat  from the atmosphere when operating as heat pumps.  It is the
  air heat  exchangers in these devices which cause most of the problems
       When one tries to remove heat from' the air, for high air tempera-
  tures,  condensation occurs.   This is not  harmful.   However,  as the tem-
  perature drops, the heat transfer surfaces  drops below the freezing
  temperature and freezing occurs  on the  coils.   The  frost  seriously  re-
  duces  the  heat transfer  and  impedes the air  flow so  that periodic de-
  frosting is necessary.   The  heat  to defrost  reduces  the amount  of use-
  ful  heat available while the defrosting time reduces the availability
  of the unit.   More than  any other factor, the air heat exchanger makes
  a heat pump an unattractive device.
      The heat  pump also has a poor characteristic as the temperature
  range over which it works is increased.   Figure  (10)* shows this
  characteristic.  Boilers don't have this characteristic in that the
  amount of heat released per pound of fuel  burned is  virtually inde-
 pendent of  the outside temperature.   With  a  heat pump,  the coefficient
 performance drops steadily as the outside  temperature drops.   This
 means either supplementary electric  heat and/or  substantial excess
 capacity must be provided in  the  system.
      Another type of heat pump is  possible which would go quite  a way
 toward stretching fuel used for heating.  This pump would use an adsorp-
 tion  refrigeration cycle  as the working part.  It would appear that
 such  a heat  pump would release to the house about twice the amount of
 heat which was  contained  in the fuel burned.   The extra heat would
 still have  to come from the air,  however,  so that the air heat ex-
changer problem is not eliminated.
     The most important device which is needed in developing energy
efficient systems is  the fuel  cell.   More than any other  device,  the    '
                                                                *<*<

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                             13-21
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Figure 10:  Operating characteristics of single-stage unmodulated
heat pump-air source, air condensing.  NOTE:   Power input is  at
capacity.  Reference 4.

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                                    13-22
  fuel cell meets the two problems of fuel depletion and environmental
  pollution.  Let us take some time here to discuss the fuel  cell in the
  context of the energy problems of the near and more distant future.
       Fuel cells are batteries which run on electrodes which catalyze
  the reaction of the fuel.   Instead of replacing the battery (or elec-
  trode)  one replaces the fuel which is consumed as the reaction  pro-
  ceeds on the electrode.  This device avoids  the combined  2nd law -
  materials temperature limit  which restricts  prime movers  now in opera-
  tion to  about  40%  thermal efficiency.   The fuel cell  approaches  a con-
  version  efficiency of  100%  (based  on free energy).  Free  energy  ef-
  ficiencies  of  70%  are  attainable  now on oxygen-hydrogen fuel cells
  with platinum  electrodes.  Depending  on the fuel, the free energy
  change or reaction  can be greater or  smaller than the heating value
  but  is usually about the same size.  Why, now,  is such an attractive
  device so little in evidence?
      The essential problem is finding an electrolyte and an electrode
 material which catalyzes the fuel adequately.  The material must be
 reasonably cheap, have a high rate of reaction, and be difficult to
 poison.   A satisfactory answer to all these problems has not been
 found.  A more comprehensive hydrogen energy system must have fuel
 cells because no other device using hydrogen is economical enough to
 use such an expensive fuel.   It is inconceivable that  a 30%  efficient
 heat engine used to generate hydrogen would  be  attractive  if  only 30%
 of  the heat energy  in the hydrogen were used  for work  subsequently.
 Overall  efficiencies of 10% would  result.

 BARRIERS  TO  THE ADOPTION  OF ENERGY  EFFICIENT SYSTEMS
      Power plants constructed  in the  Soviet Union  are  sited and designed
 on  the assumption that  the waste heat  will be used for space heating.
Most  of the  cities and all of  the new  construction work in the Soviet
Union  is built  to use some kind of total energy  system.  The same is
true of Sweden, and probably for the same reason.  That is, the  govern-
ment controls utilities and the number of government bodies and  review
boards which must be consulted before making a change is small enough

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                                 13-23
so change is possible.
     With the more random growth and the older cities which character-
ize this country, the problem is somewhat different.   The investment
which must be made to install a total energy system is very large while
the period of time over which development occurs is so long that it
rarely pays for someone to do it at the outset, when it is easiest.
An extreme case of slow motion redevelopment is the West-End here in
Boston.
     When I came to Boston in.1952, demolition had just begun at the
West-End.  Three years later demolition was complete.  Ten years later
construction was begun on the new buildings.  Reconstruction now appears
to be about 60% complete.  An integrated total energy system for this
complex would have required an initial investment which would erase most
of the advantages of  the system.  A serious need is a total energy
system which is flexible enough to grow with the demands of the system
yet does not require  a huge investment right at the start.
     Another factor that strikes one on reading the history of a
variety of  total energy systems in the country is the number which are
shut down a few years after being installed.  Usually this is a result
of negotiating some better rates with the local electric utility.  The
regularity  with which this occurs makes one wonder if there isn't a
better way  of organizing things.  Let's take a moment to explore these
questions.
     If we  wish  to construct  an energy efficient system, the true cost
of the energy must be reflected in  the prices  for heat or  electricity
and  institutional barriers to its  effective utilization must be re-
moved.  As  the utility  industry is  now regulated, returns  are limited
to a fixed  percentage of investment  so that the only way to increase
returns  to  the utility  is  to  increase systems  size and electricity  con-
sumption  -  primarily  off peak consumption.  Do we really want to  increase
electricity consumption?  At  this  time  the waste heat .is a bother  and
current  power plant  siting practice places  the power  plants as  remotely
from the city as possible.   This almost  precludes  efficient utilization
of waste heat.   Furthermore,  the cost of  putting  in  district heat,  gen-
 erally using waste heat from a power plant, means  that only a few old

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                                   13-24
 cities  in the United States  (built before fuel became too cheap) have
 such systems.  These systems were installed before the competing oil
 and gas systems were developed.  If a single utility provided combined
 power and heat services I expect a very different system from the one
 which we now have would have evolved.  Those countries with different
 institutional arrangements have evolved a different system.   So part
 of what we see here is due to modes of organization typical of this
 country.

 NEEDED  WORK
      The most pressing  need  is the description of a system  in which
 the economic interests  of  the various sectors  in  the energy  economy
 and the best interests  of  society  can be  made  to  coincide.   To find
 such institutional  arrangements  first the best system will have to  be
 identified  so that  the  barriers  to  its adoption can be found.
      Several technical  areas  need work.   Top among  these is  the fuel
 cell.  A cheap, reliable fuel cell  electrode for  hydrogen air  reactions
 is  badly needed as  this is the only device which  shows promise of re-
 ducing both  the energy demand and pollution from  energy use  or  con-
 version.  Of  comparable importance would  be the development  of  a
 strategy for  threading pipe through existing streets without digging
 up  everything.  This would allow back fitting for an old city.  Perhaps
 a special tunneling machine would do the job.
     The adoption of heat pumps, i.e.  their adaptation to conventional
 systems, depends on the development of a satisfactory air heat ex-
changer; one which will not ice up,  or occupy too  much volume.  This
is also  a need.  The potential for  efficient energy utilization in
this country is scarcely scratched.

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                                 13-25
REFERENCES

1)  Cook, Earl, "The Flow of Energy in an Industrial Society" Scientific
    American Vol. 224, No. 3, p.  135,  September,  1971.

2)  "Patterns of Energy Consumption in the United States" Stanford Re-
    search Institute, January 1972.

3)  Miller, A.J., "Use of Steam-Electric Power Plants to Provide Thermal
    Energy to Urban Areas" ORNL-HUD-14, January 1971.

4)  Mark's Standard Handbook for Mechanical Engineers McGraw-Hill Book
    Co., 7th Edition, p. 12-119, 1967.

5)  Beall, S.E. Jr., "Uses of Waste Heat" ASME Paper 70-WA/Ener-6.

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                          14 i                        Martin Zimmerman
                                                     Ogden Hammond
                                                     December  1,  1974
                       Working Paper No.  14
                       MIT Energy Laboratory
                          SYNTHETIC FUELS

Introduction
     This is an attempt to take a look at the economics of synthetic
fuels, and, in particular, coal gasification.  The object of this
exercise is two-fold.   In the first place we attempt to put together
the most recent information available on gasification costs.  In the
second place we present a crude evaluation of this technology, in an
attempt to begin to focus in on the relevant questions such an evalu-
ation should deal with.
     In doing this evaluation we try to allow for technological changes
that can take place between now and that point sometime in the future
when gasification might be a working technology.  In an effort to pre-
vent this from becoming too speculative, we take a very restricted
view of new technologies and limit ourselves to proven technologies
that directly compete with synthetic gas.  Previous discussion of syn-
thetic gas has not adequately considered substitute technologies.
     The argument is often made that because of the long lead times
involved in the construction of these plants, it will be a while before
they make  a dent in U.S.  energy consumption.  The following discussion
indicates  that there might be more serious problems with the  economic
viability  of some of these techniques.
      Our view  is a long-run view  in  the  sense that we  allow for  changes
in the energy-using capital stock.   Given  the time-delays  that are
anticipated  for the introduction  of  synthetic fuels,  it  appeared this
was the  reasonable course.  However,  it  does  leave  a  gap  in the  evalu-
ation that we  mention  later on, and  could  be the  basis for future work.

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                                   14-2
        We begin by briefly considering feedstock costs.  ' We then go on
   to develop the costs for gasifying coal under various  scenarios.   Finally
   we attempt to consider the  costs  of substitute technologies  in an effort  '
   to get  a handle on  the problem of the  economic viability  of  this  parti-
   cular technology.
   Feedstock Costs
        At  present, the coal market  is subject to chaotic conditions stem-
  ming  from the large increases in oil prices.  Spot coal prices have con.
  sequently  reached historically high levels.  However, long-run contract
  prices are lower and represent, for our purposes, the relevant price.
       We  take a price of $.15 per million Btu for low-sulfur western coal
  at the mine-mouth.   This is  supported by recently signed contracts for
  this coal as well as engineering cost  estimates.   The other source of
  coal for midwestern  plants would be the coal fields  of  Illinois, 'Indiana
  and West Kentucky.   The price of coal at  the mine mouth  varies  with  the
  sulfur content  of the coal.  The relationship  between price and sulfur
  content  is non-linear,  leading  to  steeply rising  prices as the  sulfur
  level  goes below  2%.  According  to  estimation we  have done in previous
 work,  the  price of coal with 4%  sulfur was 29c per million Btu at  the
 mine-mouth  as of  the middle of last year.  Prices have risen somewhat
 since  then, and on a long-term basis are somewhat higher.  In order to
 bias the  case toward synthesis we use the lower price, although the ef-
 fect is minor.  In the long-run, the elasticity of supply of western
 low-sulfur and midwestern high  sulfur coal is such that  depletion should
 not lead  to steeply  rising coal  costs.   However, shifts  in  the supply
 function  could be significant as wages  increase,driving  uo  the cost of
 underground mining.    Restrictions on strip  mining will  do  the  same
 for surface mining.

      Transportation cost,  for coal  are greater  than pipeline costs
 for  gas. meaning that Mne-«,uth  plants are preferred.  This is  the
 case  even  if »ater must be .hipped to the plant.  The combined cost of
 Paining vater to western plants and pipelining gas east to Chicago should be
a out «le  per miUion Btu.  This must be compared to,  at  a mini™
36C to deliver coal to eastern plants.  The true cost  is  higher because

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                                14-3.
    the thermal efficiency of the gasification plants implies that at
least 30% of the heat value is lost, meaning that a delivered cost of
36c is an effective cost of 51C.
Synthetic Costs
     With these feedstock and transport costs we can sketch out the
costs in 1973 dollars of producing coal-based synthetics.  At present,
the technology for coal-based liquids  is not developed.      Those
cost figures available indicate that shale oil will be a lower-cost
source of liquid hydrocarbons and    produces a higher-quality product.
It is likely that without basic advance in coal-based synthetics,
shale oil would preclude the development of present liquifaction tech-
nologies.  We have therefore concentrated on gaseous fuels from coal.
     In Table 1 we present the costs of producing synthetic high-Btu
gas from coal.  Tables 2-4 are alternative calculations as explained
in the tables.  There are several possible scenarios with either western
coal being used as a feedstock and the gas shipped to Chicago, or mid-
western coal    used as  the  feedstock.  In addition, we allow  for costs
of pipelining water  from the Mississippi if necessary.
      It appears that gasification is not necessarily a western phenome-
non.   The  initial  plants that can use  local water  supplies will  find a
cost  advantage  in  the West.   However,  if production were  to  expand,
water would  have  to  be  pipelined in from the  Midwest,  increasing
the  costs  of the  gas.Costs  of all these alternatives are  roughly the same.
This situation could change if  the price of midwestern coal  were to
escalate more rapidly than Western coal conferring an  advantage  on West-
ern  locations.   This would occur if rising  wages cause underground  min-
 ing  costs  to escalate more rapidly  than surface mining costs since the
midwestern coal industry will have  to  rely  more upon underground mining.
      We have also allowed for a different  stream factor,  that is the
 percentage of the time  that the plant  is  actually in operation.   The
 lower figure of .7 is closer to that  realized today by plants employing
 complicated chemical processes  after  years of experience.

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                                  14-4
       We have also estimated probable  gains from technological efficiency.
  Since so much of the cost is construction cost ,  there is little possi-
  bility for significant  lowering of cost   with these technologies.   We
  have allowed for a 26 percent increase in thermal efficiency to  a  level
  of 83% and a 10% decrease in capital  costs.   The  reader can  use  Table 1
  to substitute his own hypothesis.   It can be  seen that  these allowances
  make little difference  in the cost, and the prospect for major advance
  with this  technology  is limited.
  Evaluation
      We can assess this technology in a crude way by comparing it to
  alternative fuels.  However,  the evaluation must take into account several
  factors.  Because of the long lead time involved with these plants our
 evaluation must be long-term.  We should  allow for some changes in the
 capital stock of energy users.  We must also allow,as stated at the out-
 set,for technological developments that can be anticipated between now
 and the time in the early 1980's when  these gasification plants might
 be ready.

      Advantages of gasification that must  also be  accounted for in  the
 evaluation are the low emission levels of  the  fuel at the point  of  use
 and the fact that it  uses  a domestic fuel  and  thus can  contribute to
 the realization of greater independence for the United   States from im-
 ported fuels.   The low-pollution at  point  of use is  not  a total net  gain
 with this  fuel since  it  does  involve the pollution associated  with  coal
 mining,  either surface or  underground.  However, in  order to present a
 more favorable case for  synthetics, this is ignored.  Furthermore, many
 of  the  alternatives to this fuel  involve similar sources  of pollution
 at  the point of manufacture.

     To deal with the independence aspect  we also restrict our attention
to domestic sources of energy.  We therefore are not in  a position to
evaluate the trade-offs involved in basing greater independence upon
synthetics.  However,  this allows us to present the most favorable case
for synthetics.

     There are two main areas in which  gas  can  compete.   We ignore the

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                                14-5
   transportation sector and assume that only liquid fuels will be used in
   that sector.  We are left with the residential and commercial, the in-
   dustrial, and the electrical generation sectors.   In broad terms,  there
   are two alternative uses for this  fuel:for bulk heat in industrial and
   electrical generation uses and those  uses  in  the  residential and commer-
   cial and the industrial  sector where  the cleanliness and  ease of handling
   associated with  gas  are  highly valued.  These  characteristics are  partic-
   ularly  important  in  space  heating and it is here  that gas will have  its
   highest  utility.

       The case for using gasified coal in bulk heating such as  the elec-
   trical sector revolves around its low-pollution level.  In this sense
   it can be viewed as a desulfurizer and an evaluation of the techniques
  can be made by comparing it to other forms  of desulfurization.
       There are three primary ways of desulfurizinp coal.  One is  to burn
  low-sulfur coal.   However,  indications are  that the supply of low sulfur
  coal in  the East  is  quite inelastic.   There have been large real  increases
  recently in the long-run  price of this high-quality coal and  sizeable
  expansion of low-sulfur coal production  in  the  East would  likely drive
  the  price quite a  bit  higher,  although it is impossible  to say how high.
  This  rise would be limited  by  the ability of utilities to purchase Western
  low-sulfur  coal.  There are also alternative technologies in the form of
  low-Btu gas and stack-gas desulfurization.  The costs of low-Btu processes
 are presented in Tables 2-4.

      There is currently a great deal of controversy as to the reliability
 and cost  of stack-gas desulfurization devices.   In  the span of years we
 must  consider when dealing with synthetics,  however, it is  not unreason-
 able  to assume that the devices will  be perfected.   We use  as  the  cost
 of this technique,  the highest  published  figure  we  have been able  to find,
 80C per million Btu from a Commonwealth Edison Company report.   Together
 with  a delivered cost  of high  sulfur coal of 45c  (30c  for coal  & 15c
 transport),  this is $1.25 per million Btu.    '

     There is  less controversy about the workability of low-Btu  gasifi-
 cation.  T*ese costs, while higher than those for stack-gas desulfuriza-
tion,  still are lower than the high-Btu gasification costs when compared
as a source of fuel for large industrial boilers.  Furthermore factors

-------
                                  14-6

  that will cause escalation is these alternatives will have the same
  impact on high-Btu gasification since the components of cost are roughly
  the same.

      The case for gasification therefore must be based on its use in
  processes where its cleanliness and handling ease are highly valued.
  This class of service must surely include some industrial uses; however,
  in a broad look such as this it is impossible to isolate those processes.
 Rather, we deal with a major non-industrial use - space heating.   If
 gasification is not economically viable in this use,  its usefulness is
 likely to be much more limited than has been anticipated.   We use
 electricity as a standard here since if we can show that electricity,
 generated by nuclear power or coal, will be a cost-competitive substi-
 tute in space heating,  we eliminate one of the major  possible uses  of  syn-
 thetic gas  as uneconomic.
      The  supply of electricity is  complex for it  depends upon the age
 structure of plants,  the  type of  plants,  and  the  load characteristics
 as well as  fuel  and capital costs.   A more  complete analysis  will have
 to take these factors into account.  We  can't accomplish this here, but
 rather  we take,  in a  first attempt  to,  in fact, see if further work would
 be useful, an average cost of  electricity of  3c per kWh  distributed to
 ultimate  consumers.  This is higher  than  the  average  residential  rate of
 2.64c/kWh for the U.S. in 1973-1974.  However, this  is  the 1973  rate for
 consumers of  Commonwealth Edison.  We use this rate for several reasons.
 Commonwealth  Edison uses more nuclear power than any other utility, which
 reflects what will likely become a more common mix of plants for other
 utilities.  In addition, Commonwealth Edison has been purchasing low-
 sulfur coal to comply with Chicago clean-air regulations.  This rate
 is actually on the high side since residences using electric heat  have
higher kilowatt consumption and therefore lower average  rates.
     The long-run marginal cost of producing electricity should be the
average cost of generation for the set of plants that  minimizes the
cost  of production, given load characteristics, etc.   As  these charac-
teristics  change, so will the  marginal cost.  We have  not considered
this  aspect  here, so these calculations  must be viewed as illustrative.

-------
                                14-7
     We also must take into account technological improvements that have
already been developed and can be improved upon in the next few years.
Specifically, we allow for the introduction of heat pumps that change
work (electricity) into heat.
     The heat pump is not a new technology and has been in use since
the 1950's; however,  early heat pumps suffered from problems with relia-
bility.  This coupled with low gas costs precluded their introduction.
The situation is  fundamentally different with regard to a wholesale
gas price of $2.00 per million Btu.
     In Table 5 we present a  comparison between  space heating with a
conventional gas  furnace  and  a heat pump  system,  using efficiency levels
obtained  in operation today.  The  economics  of the heat-pump  are best
in relatively warmer climates,  so  we  present the case  for  both  middle
and northern U.S. where electricity is likely to be  at its greatest
disadvantage.
      The second part of each case in  the table  allows for  a 90% increase
 in gas boiler efficiencies and a 75%  increase in heat pump efficiencies.
 Both numbers are considered quite feasible by engineers; however,  it
 was considered unlikely that gas efficiency could go over 85% anywhere.
             At  levels of  efficiency currently attainable,  the heat
pump is  preferred everywhere.  At  the higher levels  of efficiency  the
heat pump appears,  given the accuracy of  this data,  to be  a close
 substitute even in  northern climates, and certainly  preferred as one
moves south.
       It must be  pointed  out  that  this comparison is heavily biased against
  the heat pump.   The heat pump-provides air-conditioning capacity at  a
   low       increment in capital  cost,  thereby narrowing  or eliminating
  the capital cost advantage  in  those  regions where air conditioning  is
  a factor.   This is  also true for  large  commercial buildings  where both
  air conditioning and heating must be provided.   This  is a substantial
  advantage for  the  heat pump.
       The future evolution of costs will depend upon the relative
  escalation in capital and coal costs as well as how electricity is

-------
                                    14-8
   generated.  A proper accounting for all factors would consider
   how rising costs affect the choice of plants for gasification and for
   electric generation;  however,   a simulation model is necessary for this
   task.   For both of these energy sources there is a variation in the
   relative fuel and  capital intensiveness of  the production  process.   If
   coal costs rise more  rapidly than  capital costs,  this will favor  nuclear
   power plants  and western coal plants, where  coal  cost is a smaller  portion
   of total cost.  Given the wide  range in factor  intensities,  and given
   that electricity will still be  generated by  some mixture of  coal and
  nuclear plants, as a first approximation it does not appear  too erron-
  eous to conclude that these processes will be affected in roughly fche
  same degree by rising coal and  capital costs.  This area though is
  clearly one where simulation would help sort out possible scenarios.
       There is  one potentially serious exception to this  argument.   If
  the  sulfur restrictions  on fuels force  utilities to use  low-Btu gas  or
  some other  expensive form of  desulfurization,  then the cost of electri-
  city can  go very much  higher without  a corresponding  increase in high-
  Btu gas costs  made  from  eastern  high-sulfur coal.   Yet, there is serious
  doubt as to  the  supply of non_calclng eastprn  coal  ^^  ^     ^
 technologies.  Full reliance on these coals could lead to much higher
 prices much as metallurgical coal has earned a high premium in thl past.
 Furthermore, very high desulfurization costs will lead to .ore reliance
 on nuclear power for       base load generation.
 Pollution
      There  is,  of  course,  the  pc.lllttlon  proble]n assoclated ^  ele
-------
                                 14-9 *
     These arguments are not offered as proof that space heating will
be converted to electricity.  Rather, all that is being argued is that
if gas prices reach $2.00 per million Btu, in wide areas of the United
States electricity would be the preferred fuel.  This is not a prediction
that this set of circumstances will occur.
     This preference is also a long-run one.  In cases where installed
capacity is being used, it night make sense to use the higher-priced
fuel since the incremental capital cost is not just the differential in
capital costs between the two systems, but rather the entire cost of
the heat pump. ^Existing gas systems, however, have much lower efficiencies
making the operating cost differential larger.  More work could be done
on this question in a full-scale assessment of the technology.
Implications
     We have seen that more recent information on gasification costs
show this to be a very high cost form of  energy.  It will, at best, be
used in the residential and commercial sectors where the characteristics
of gas are highly valued.   The above calculations suggest that when com-
peting technologies are considered the economics of gasification are
questionable even in these  uses.  This evaluation should be pursued,
and it could be integrated  with models of electricity  supply now in
progress at  the Energy Laboratory as well as  alternative strategies  for
satisfying  energy demand.   The results of the analysis  here suggest  that
the main obstacle to the  introduction  of  synthetics  is  not  the  time  lag,
but rather  the poor economics of the presently available processes.
     We have  tried here  to  suggest  that  on  its own  terms there  appears
to be  a  limited market  for  high-Btu gas  at  $2.00 per  million  Btu.   Even
the  $2.00 price might well  prove to be optimistic.   It would  appear
that  funds  expended on  development  of  present technology offer  little
.promise  of  significant  pay-off.  We are still in the stage with regard
 to  coal  based synthetics  that  requires basic research aimed at  new
 approaches  and technologies.

-------
           14-10
TABLE 1
Part A
Coal Gasification Cn^

Case

1
2

3
4
5
6

7
8

Type of
• Coal
*•" i —
Western
Western

Western
Western
Western
Illinois

Illinois
Illinois
(Delivered in
Water Avail-
able

Yes
No

No
Yes
No
Yes

Yes
Yes
Chicago)
Techno-
logical
Improve-
ments
No

No
Yes
No
Yes
Mrt
iXO
Yes
Yes

Stream
Factor

.8

.8
.8
.7
.7

.8
.8
.7

Total
Cost

$1.90

$2.07
$1.89
$2.13
$2.11

$2.08
$1.86
$2,08
Source:  See Part  B

-------
                                       14-11
                                     TABLE  1
Part B
Case
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Coal
Costs
.30
.30
.24
.30
.24
.58
.48
.48
Operating
Costs
.465
.632
.632
.53
.697
.50
.50
.57
B.P. Credit
-.252
-.252
-.252
-.252
-.252
-.252
-.252
-.252
Cap- Charges
1.15
- 1.15
1.03
1.31
1.18
1.19
1.07
1.22
Ship-
Ping
.24
.24
.24
.24
.24
.06
.06
.06
Total
$1.90
$2.07
$1.89
$2.13
$2.11
$2.08
$1.86
$2.08
Sources:

Exxon-EPA-l/60/3-74-009-b  June 1974

1973 El Paso FPC Application

     Plant size:  250 maBtu day, (IhV)
     Total Btu/year output:  73 x 10° mmBtu/yr,  low heating value
     Stream factor:  .8
     Coal cost derivation:  Annual feed cost ($).  evaluated at  $.15/ramBtu  for
                            Annual output (nmBtu)

     Western Coal and $.29/mmBtu for 4Z Sulfur Midwest  Coal.

     Operating costs include plant operation and contingency evaluated  at  10Z  of  the
     sum of annual plant operating cost and the  cost  of the coal feed.   Where
     applicable $.167/mmBtu for water is added to the total.   (Exxon  EPA report)

     By-product credit at $.75/mmBtu.  (Exxon EPA report)
     Cap. charges: calculated @ 21.57, of total investment, corresponding to 102
     DCF.  Allowance nade for additional sulfur  recoval by assuming sulfur removal
     cost proportional to (" sulfur)*^.  (Exxon  EPA report and  conversation with
     J. Longvell)

     Shipping @ $.03/nmBtu x 100 miles, Johnson, S.E. "Storage  and Transportation
     of Synthetic Fuels", ORNL-TM-4307, ORNL, Sept. 1972.

-------
                                                           Table 2
 Coal  gasification


  Lurgi-bituminous1


  Lurgi-Western2


 Conl liquefaction



 r.ow-D.t.u.  gas


 Bituminous'


 Western2



Hcth.nnol-Mtuminous1


OiJ nlialo


 G'.uiUi cation


 Liquefaction^


•Liquefaction14

Input fuel
(tons/day)
14,700-17,900
19,600-23,800
13,200-17,500
12,500-14,300
16,700-19,000
14,900
94,500

72,900
52,000

Thermal
Efficiency
(per cent)
56-68
56-68 .
60-75
70-80
70-80
60-67
74

96
96

Total ,
Capital
(? mil-
lion)
334-390
290-390
233-373
195-208
195-208
279-364
415

342-360
276-327
Annual
Operat-
ing cost
<5 mil-
lions)
21.4-22.2
19.5-23.0
22-35
16-18
16-18
44


-
-
Costs (cents
* i .
Capital7
98.4-115
85.4-115
68.6-110
57.4-61.3
57.4-61.3
82.2-107
122

101-106
81.3-96.3
per million B.t.u. of
— — 	 	 — — 	
Operat-
ing
Costs5
29.3-30.4
26.7-31.5
30.1-48.0
22-24.7
22-24.7
60
TO 1
J/. J
34.9
30.2
product)8
Coal or oil Total
Shale Cost Cost 9
47. 1-57.1
23.5-28.6
42.7-53.3
40-45.7
20-22.9
47.8-53.3

56.1
42.8-48.2
46.8-52.6
174.8-202.5
135.6-175.1
141.4-211.3
119.4-131.7
99.4-108.9
190.0-220.3

210.4
178.7-189.1
158.3-179.1
jThirtjrtwo cents per million Btu, 25 million Btu per ton,  $8.00 per ton.

         cents per million Btu, 18.75 million Btu per ton,  53.00 per ton.
      y-fivo gallons of oil per ton of shale.
5Thirty-five gallons of oil per ton of shale

                                              °
                                                                                      tal @


                                                                                             or .0


                                                                                  HxcludinR shipment
 with  capacity  to  the  0.9  power,
                                                                                       d"""11           ».
                                                                          of product by assuming these costs to vary

-------
                                                       Table 3
                                                                        Coststcontu per million D.t.u. of product)
                    Input fuel
                    (tons/day)
I,otf-B.t.u. gas
 Western
        2
Mafchanol-bituiainous*

Oil shaJ«
 Gasification
 Liquefaction3
 Liquefaction'1
                   12,500-14,300

                   Mi,700-19,000

                       14,900


                       94,500

                       72,000

                       52,000 •
                                    Thermal
Coal notification
 Uirgi-bituminous1  14,700-17,900    5G-GO
 Lurgl-Western2     19,600-23,000    56-60
Coat liquaCaobion   13,200-17,500    60-73
70-UO
70-00

60-67


 74
 96
 96
Total
Capital 6
{$ mil-
lion)
334-390
290-390 •
233-373
195-200
105-200
279-364
415
342-300
276-327
Annual
Operat-
ing cost
($ Mil- •
lions)
21.4-22.2
19.5-23.0
22-35
10-10
16-10
44
-
Capital7
112,5-131,4
97. 6-131. A
78j.4-125.7-
65.6-70.0
65.6-70
94-122.3
Technology
advanced so
QpOl'At**
inf»
Conto5
33.5-34.7
30.5-36,0
34.4-54.9
i
23.1T28.2
23.1-20.2
68.6
sufficiently
.7 stream
Coal or Oil
Shalo Cost
47.1-57.1
23.5-28.6
42.7-53,3
40-45.7
20-22,9
47.8-53.3 '
-
Total •
Cost 9
193.1-223,2
151.6-196
155,5-240
130,7-143.9
110.7-121.1
210.4-244.2
.. _
factor is unrealistic
. -
1

-
-
                                                                                 Capital 8 21.5Z
                                                                                 Stream factor .7
Plant Coats for 250 x J.O9 Htu per day of Various Synthetic Fuels.
Derived from May 1974 Technology Review Article.
'Thirty-two cents per million Etu, 25 million Btu per ton, $8.00 por ton. .
ZSixt«en cents per million Btii, 13.75 million Btu per ton, $3.00 per ton.       Excluding shipment
 Twenty-Hive gallons of oil per ton of shale.             •     '              '
^Thtrty-five gallons of oil per ton of shale.
       at $5.50 per hour, 2.5 per cent For tax«s and Jnmimneo on plnnt investment, 4.5 per ec-.nl for maintenance.
  Includes onsites. off»jtfts, j.«xlli;irion, flvo por cont Btart-upn, 15 per cent interest during construction, and
  7.5* workInp. capCtai.  Th« plant coats ar« novwnli/.c<« to 2507.109 Btu/day of product by ons«minB  thefia costs  to vnry
  With  capacity to-the 0.9 pow«r,                            •    .
                                                                                                                                      .p-
                                                                                                                                      i
CO

-------
                                                        • Table
1
i
i

; Coal gasification
; Lurgi-bituminoua1
Lurfji-Western2
Coal liquof Action
I.OV/-H. L'.II. gas
I)i Luminous'
Wi'Rliirn2
Mctluinol-bituminous1
Oil shalo
Ga.-.ificrttion
Liquefaction3
Liquefaction1*
Costs(ccnts par million D.t.u. of product)8
Input fuel
(tons/day)

14,700-17,900
19,600-23,000
13,200-17,500

12,500-14,300
16,700-19,000
14,900

94,500
72,900
52,000
Thermal Total
Efficiency Capital6
{per cent) ($ mil-
t
56-68
56-60
60-75

70-00
70-00
60-67

'74
96
96
lion)
334-390
290-390
233-373'

195-200
195-200
279-364

415
342-360
276-327
Opcrnt- Capital7
ing cost
($ mil-
lions)
21.4-22.2 60.7-70.9
19.5-23.0 52.7-70.9
22-35 42.4-67.8

16-10 35.5-37.0
16-18 35.5-37.8
44 50.7-66.2

75.5
62.2-65.5
50.2-59.5.
Oporat-
incr
Coats5

25.9-26.9
23.6-27.9
26.7-42.4

19.4-21.0
19.4-21.8
51

25.0
27.0
23.4
Coal or Oil
Shale Cost

'.47.1-57.1
23.5-28.6
42.7-53.3

40-45.7
20-22.9
47.8-53.3

56.1
42.8-48.2
46.8-52.6
Total
Cost 9

134-155
100-127
112-163.5

\
95-105.3
75-81.5
149.5-170.5 £
1
156.6
132-140.7
120.4-135.5
                                                                            Capital @ 15J5/year
I'L-.ni.  Costs  for 250 x 10? ntu per day of Various Synthetic Foel-'
Dcri.vcd  from Hay 1974 Technology review Artlcls.  7          l'ei°'
^i.ty-t.0  ccnts ?ev BIU10B BtUi rj nUHon ccu per t<>n>  $f;>oo pcr ^^ 8strcam        m         ^    '         ,
3SiK.ccn cents  per million Btu, 13.75 nillion Etu per ton,  $3.00 per ton.                                 days/year
^ Twacy-flve gallons  of oil per ton of shale.             .    '           -                                '
 Thirty-five  r.nllons  of oil per ton of shale.
Labor at
with capacity to the 0.9 power.
                                                                         lnVftSt"Cnt' /"5
                                                                      ^'"S86
                                                                      °f  pFoducl=
                                                                                                   for nnintonnncc,
                                                                                    ••o w**«-«- *. uv. L-^-i^ii f 3nd 7 • 5 %
                                                                                    assuming these costs to vary

-------
                             14-15


                            TABLE  5

Case I:  Average U.S.  Weather Conditions  (102 mmBtu)
                                                      Increased Efficiency Levels
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

Delivered Price
Efficiency
Effective Price
Capital Cost
current E«J.J-
Heat Pump
$8.80/mmBtu
2
$4.40/mmBtu
$3,000
Annual Capital Charge $347
Annual Maintainance
TOTAL COST
Net Saving
Case II: Northern
$44
$840
*143
U.S. Weather
0.1; J-Clll*jr 4J*-» *--.«
Gas
$3.50/mmBtu
.45
$7.78
$1600
$185
$4
$983
-143
Conditions (141
Current Efficiency Levels
Heat Pump Gas
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.

8.


Delivered Price
Efficiency
Effective Price
Capital Cost
$8.80
1.6
$5.50
$3,000
Annual Capital Charge $347
Annual Maintenance
TOTAL COST

Net Saving
Sources:
Case I and II
$44
$1167
i ft
+9


$3.50
.50
$7.00
$1,600
$185
$4
$1176
_q
7


Heat Pump
$8.80/nunBtu
3.5
$2.51
$3,000
$347
$44
$647
-38
mmBtu)
Increased
Heat Pump
$8.80
3
$2.93
$3,000
$347
$44
$804
-34



Gas -
$3.50/mmBtu
.85
$4.12
$1600
$185
$4
$609
+38

Efficiency Levels
Gas
$3.50
.85
$4.12
$1,600
$185
$4
$770
+34



            Electricity  at  .03c/KWh.  Gas price from Table 1, plus dis-
            tribSon  cost  =  $1.50 per million Btu.  ™*'°™*f*™?o
            difference between  the 1972 average revenue of Boston Edison
            for an inflation of  10%.

   Line 2-  Electrical World. August  15,  1973,  p.  80 for current levels.
            "increased efficiencies from discussion with engineers involved
            in research on these technologies.


   Line 3:  Line 1 divided by line 2.

   Line 4:  Electrical World. August 15, 1973,  p.  80.

   Line 5:  Calculated from line 4, assuming 20-year life and 10% rate of

            of interest.

   Line 6:  Electrical World, op.cit.

   Line 7:   (Line  3 x million Btu) + line 5 + line  6.

   Line 8:  This  is difference between heat pump and gas costs.

-------

-------
                            ic i                        James W. Meyer
                                                       June 1, 1974
                         Working  Paper No.  15
                        MIT  Energy Laboratory
                    SAVED"  FUEL AS AN ENERGY RESOURCE
Energy Demand Measures
     There is little doubt that free market forces will correct the demand
side of the energy supply-demand equation.  The market, never entirely
free, coupled with inertia in the many facets of energy demand, often fails
to provide the proper correction or fails to affect a timely correction.
Policy can and should be applied to correct the market's failure to control
demand.  To select the right policy we must establish the bases for in-
formed choice and supplement this by an educational program that will make
the  chosen policy work.
     Conservation:
         0  Increase Energy Productivity
         °  Eliminate Energy Waste
         0  Frugal Energy Use
     The three most  important  issues  in conservation policy  are those which
 lead to  more  efficient  use  of  energy,  i.e.  policy to increase  the  produc-
 tivity of  energy.   In the  second  approach,  policy leads to using less
 energy;  a  method already employed,  e.g. turning down thermostats to save
 heating fuels.   A third method which,  like the first,  has  a  major  tech-
 nological component,  is to affect policy  encouraging the use of an alter-
 native,  less scarce or renewable energy fuel resources. The time  scale
 for using less energy is short, while that for increasing  the productivity
 of energy or for providing alternative sources is comparable to time
 scales involved in increasing energy supply.  The generic  term "energy" is
 used here because measures which result in reduced energy demand  in any
 sector can and will reduce the demand for petroleum products.
      The target of a conservation program is waste.  We waste more energy
 than most other nations use.  This waste is fully half of the energy we
 burn.  Voluntary measures taken to reduce energy use last winter have
 produced dramatic results in many areas.  The  public was asked to  take
 action  on measures which were known to reduce  energy use.  Little  quanti-

-------
                                   15-2
  tative information was available on how much saving these measures would
  produce or on what the consequences,  particularly indirect consequences,
  would be.   Our knowledge is poor on how far  t6  pursue some of  these
  measures.   In the recent past,  recommended light  levels  have increased
  substantially.   Reduced lighting levels most certainly will save  electrical
  energy and in the summer,  power required for air  conditioning.  Minimum
  lighting standards need further investigation,  particularly ratios  of
  illumination  in contiguous  areas.
       In the winter of  1973-1974 in  New  England  we saw  as high as  20% savings
  in fuel use,  corrected  for  weather, by  operational methods.  The  high cost
  of fuel will  certainly  encourage their  continued use.  There is a need,
  however, to get  a more  quantitative measure of  the savings to be  expected.
  Because of the variety  of climates  in our country and wide differences in
  our building  stock, this quantification  should be done on a regional,
  perhaps on a  local basis.  Especially when the method requires  sacrifice,
  actual  or perceived, on the part of the consumer,  it is important to give
 him a measure of what he is getting for his apparent discomfort.   The con-
 sumer has already seen the cost of fuel and/or electric power go  up as  a
 result of his using less.  His bill hasn't decreased.
      Positive public response thus far has probably  been  more to  avoid
 running out of fuel or electric power  than it has  been to be more econ-
 omical in face of rising energy costs.   If increased  prices produce as
 expected increased supply,  it is not at  all clear  that  the  economic in-
 centive alone  will persuade  people  to  continue to  curtail use.  There may
 indeed be more of an incentive to "pass  through" increased  costs  in the
 form  of increased wage  demands by workers, and increased prices by
 marketers.  Timely achievement of independence from foreign petroleum
 import will require  continued  effort in  conservation.   It is essential
 that we develop  the  bases for  informed choice and follow that with a com-
 prehensive public  information  and educational program.
     One might expect burgeoning fuel prices to  elicit proper attention
 to increasing  productivity of  energy, just as increased worker productivity
 is a sound,  non-inflationary reason for wage increases.  We have examples
where productivity will have too great a time lag.   In situations  where
increased costs, including increased energy costs,  can be  fed through to

-------
                                 15-3
the consumer,  and where the product is in short  supply,  the dominant
forces are to increase supply at increased cost.   The energy intensive
cement industry is a case in point.  Past year of surplus production  led
to the shutdown of non-competitive, inefficient plants.   Now we have  a
forecast cement shortage produced by the petroleum shortage.  If costs
can be passed through, it becomes "economical" to meet the shortage by
reopening the inefficient plants which in turn exacerbate the energy
shortage.
     The cement manufacturing process has the inherent potential for using
high sulfur fuels with no hazard to either product or to the environment.
In fact, the sulfur in the fuel reacts with the cement to improve the
product!  Naturally, at the  time of their construction, cement plants
locate and operate  in a manner compatible with raw material supply, energy
supply,  and market  conditions.  Unfortunately for current conditions,
the above criteria  led to prodigous use  of then  cheap and then available
natural  gas.                                            '   '
      The cement  industry is  used as only one  illustrative example of  the
need  to  reevaluate  fuel usage in our  various  industrial  and production
processes to  establish where fuel  shifts can  be  made economically and
productively.
      A deterrant to increasing energy productivity  and  to  promoting  less
 energy use  in space conditioning  is  the historical  preference for building
 and remodeling on the basis of first  cost rather than on the basis of
 life cycle  cost.  Even now,  less than 10% of  all building  projects have
 only a minimum life cycle cost analysis made.  As a result, we have  a
 building stock in this country woefully underinsulated and caulked,  and
 drastically over-fenestrated.  There has been little incentive, with
 cheap and abundant fuel, to design home furnaces and burners for efficiency
 and reliability instead of low first cost and reliability.  Speculative
 builders do not pay life cycle costs.  As a result, we use too much fuel
 to heat our homes and small businesses even to standards below those of
 years past.
      To attempt to correct  this condition only by increasing standards
 for new construction would  be too little, too late.  Methods must be de-
 vised to encourage and to implement  retrofit improvements to the existing

-------
                                   15-4
  building  stock.   In so  doing, we must be  careful not  to make demands on
  the same  manpower and materials resources required to increase energy
  supply.   Fortunately, it  is not the home  construction industry that will
  build  the energy  facilities, but there may well be competition for certain
  critical  materials  or the energy to produce them.  Insulation, aluminum,
  plastics,  etc. may  present conflicting demands on available resources.
      The  environmental  impact of conservation is positive and significant.
  Not only  does using less energy help, but also increasing energy pro-
  ductivity permits healthy expansion with no increase in pollution.  The
  provision  of alternative fuels to petroleum and facilitating fuel switch-
  ing by all users creates desirable diversity that has great potential for
  increased national economic activity at reduced environmental cost.
      It is well known that remelting scrap aluminum takes less energy than
 to refine it from the ore.  At present,  incentives  for recycling  are not
 very persuasive.   Products are not  now manufactured with eventual re-
 cycling in mind.   Many recycling  projects  are  economically viable only
 because of substantial injections of volunteer labor.  Design and pro-
 duction for efficient recycling will conserve  fuel, raw  materials, and
 the environment.   The distortion of price  has  caused  a market  failure.
 The market does not now  handle environmental costs.
      Technology is providing increasing numbers of ways  to  derive energy
 or petroleum substitutes from waste.  It has been suggested  that  2.2
 barrels of synthetic crude, ten thousand cubic feet of gas,  430 pounds of
 charcoal and 80 pounds of  tar can be produced from each ton  of organic
 garbage for a capital  investment of about  $16,000/ton of processing
 capacity and  at a  collection and conversion cost of about $20/ton.  If
 all  of  the more than 7 million tons of organic waste produced in  the
 United  States each day could be converted,  the output of more than 15
 million barrels per day  of crude would represent over 80% of our daily
 crude requirements.  Only a fraction of this waste,  however, would be
 accessible  to conversion, but only two million barrels of synthetic crude
 per day from this source would  reduce substantially  our demand for foreign
 crude.  America produces about  a million tons of municipal solid waste a
day.  Processed solid waste has about 1/3  the heating  value of coal and
substantially less sulfur.

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                                 15-5
     We have the technology for  producing methane  from manure, methanol
from methane and natural gas,  and high nitrogen fertiliser  from municipal
sewage.  We have heard forecast  a shortage  of nitrogen fertilizer as a
result of the natural gas shortage.  Until  now it  has been most  economical
to make nitrogen fertilizer from natural gas.  But this is not the only
way   m fact the same plant that produces methanol from methane feed-
stock can produce nitrogen fertilizer with only a change in catalyst and
feedstock.  Denitrification of waste water sometimes  involves a process
which  produces  carbon dioxide and  nitrogen gas.  A better process mxght
be one that produces nitrate fertilizer.

.The Impact Potential  of Demand  Reduction
:                            by  civilian transportation  is  about  a quarter
 of the total U.S.  energy budget.   Indirect consumption represents a
 significant fraction of industry's 43% of the total budget.   General
 Motors and its products alone consume 10% of the total.  The latter per-
 centage does not include the energy cost of the raw materials and finished
 products used by GM in its operations.  Conservation measures which effect
 savings in fuel consumption can result in far larger savings in petroleum
 consumption  than the direct gasoline  savings alone.  They can also have a
 major  impact on the economy as a whole.
       In "A Report  on Automotive Fuel  Economy,"  the U.S. Environmental
 Protection Agency, Office  of Mobile Source  Air  Pollution Control  dated
 October,  1973  released the results of a  major  study  of the  fuel  economy
  of over  4000 cars. This study not only  reinforced  the findings  of
  numerous  other studies to  the effect  that increased  weight  is  the principal
  culprit  in lowering fuel economy,  but also demonstrated that weight was
  also a dominant factor in the fuel economy of emission controlled cars
  to the 1973 standards.  Cars in the weight range from 2000 to  3500 pounds
  actually showed increased fuel economy in the controlled 1973  cars over
  that for uncontrolled  (1957-1967) vehicles by 1% to 3%.  1973 cars in the
  4000 to 5500 pound class  showed 14%  to  18% poorer fuel economy than thexr
  uncontrolled predecessors.
       The  growing  scarcity of  gasoline and  its  increased cost has already
   begun a  significant  shift to  smaller cars.  This, plus the lowered  speed

-------
                                    15-6
   limit,  and voluntary reductions  through other economics, have resulted in a
   20%  saving over  that predicted for U.S. gasoline consumption.  Industrial
   production dropped 0.5% in December, 1973 because of auto production cut-
   backs and reduced use of gas and electricity.  If the shift to smaller
   cars is sustained to where 50% of the passenger car population gets 22 mpg
   on the average, there will be a far greater savings of petroleum products
   than the 10% of the fuel that is saved.
       The smaller car uses smaller quantities of  materials.   Minerals used
  by automakers such as iron,  steel,  aluminum, copper,  nickel and  zinc are
  all energy intensive.   The use of plastics which grew from  an average of
  25 pounds  per car in 1960  to  125  pounds in 1973  models will diminish
  Tires on smaller  cars use  less  rubber and  last longer.   Smaller cars pro-
  duce  less  wear  and  tear on streets, roads  and highways.  Feedstocks  and
  process  energy  for  plastics and rubber  production will show a reduction
  per unxt built.  A  recent Bureau  of Mines  study estimated that if the
  price of gasoline went from 38c/gallon  to  80c/gallon, the percent change
  xn consumption of minerals by the automotive industry in 1980 over 1971
  levels would range from a 10% increase for 38c/gallon of gasoline to a 20%
 reduction for the 80c/gallon of gasoline.
      In light of the strong interactions suggested above, it is wrong to
 project requirements for oil  and gas of  21 million barrels per day by
 1978.   We need a much better  handle on  secondary  and  tertiary effects on
 energy consumption caused  by  interactions in these highly connected  systems
     Early  results suggest  that  greater  than anticipated  results were
 achieved  by voluntary conservation measures,   it  is likely that the greater-
 than-estimated  savings were a  result of  estimating on  the basis of first
 order  effects  of measures only.  It is only through better estimating
 techniques  and better measures of  the results of conservation measures
 that we will be able to clear up the confusion over the energy shortage
 and what can be done about the shortage with conservation.
     If little attention is paid to ameliorating demand through increased
productivity, less use of a scarce fuel,  or by switching to a more plenti-
ful and/or renewable resource,  experience has shown a tendency to  over
correct.   World sulfur shortages become  sulfur gluts...shortages of
engineers and scientists  were  turned  into surpluses within a  decade

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                                 15-7
When trying to survive a shortage,  it is difficult to conceive of surplus,
particularly in the case of petroleum because it is such an ubiquitous part
of our lives.  Nevertheless, similarly inconceivable events have happened.
     Because of the interrelated nature of our use of petroleum products,
conservation in use effects demand in more a multiplicative way than
additive.  Therefore, if we wait the length of time required for normal
forces to work on demand, the chances are we will precipitate a glut not
long afterward.
     In summary, the thrust of conservation measures to affect reduced de-
mand for petroleum should be:
         0  Increased energy productivity
         °  Reduce excessive use
     We cannot do this wisely and productively unless we understand both
the effectiveness and the effects of our efforts and unless we establish
the kind of public educational program that will engender public acceptance
and public cooperation with what has to be done.
     If we attempt to solve the problem by increasing supply alone, our goal
of independence:
         0  will take too  long to achieve
         0  will likely  create a disruptive product  glut

Some Specifics  on Conservation Measures
     Measures for curtailing  energy  demand, particularly demand  for petro-
leum products,  were  selected  on the  basis of  ready applicability on a very
short  time horizon.  For this reason,  the measures are, by  nature, oper-
ational  or energy management  approaches.  Such measures do  not  ordinarily
have major secondary and higher order  impacts on other  sectors.  Indeed,
a segment  of  the population has already taken some of  these measures  to
 some degree  and we have initial indications  of their effectiveness.   This
 early  data,  however, represents the  aggregate results  of  a mix  of  measures
not  easily sorted  out.   Because of  their immediate applicability,  these
measures can reduce  demand substantially before we can produce  an  equally
 dramatic increase  in supply.   Incentives in addition to normal  market
 incentives are particularly important if we are to succeed in the  short
 term in effecting  a  reduction in  demand essential to accomplishing "Project

-------
                                  15-8
 Independence."
      The measures discussed  here are:
          I  Living and  Working  Space Conditions
             0  Reduce space  heating temperature norms by 3° -  6°F.
             0  Increase space cooling  temperature norms by 3°  - 6°F.
             0  Energy management and control  in space ventilation  (both
                in design ventilation and air  infiltration).
             0  Reduce general lighting by one-third.
             0  Improve  performance of domestic and small commercial
                heating  equipment.
         II  Transportation
             0  Interurban speed  limit: 55 mph
             0  Interurban passenger car average occupancy increase from
                1.4  to 2.4 passengers a car.
             0  Collect  for burning as a substitute for residual oil used
                crankcase and waste industrial oil.
       Ill   Industry
             0  A  15% overall reduction in energy consumption.
     These measures accomplished are not so much a lowering of the American
standard of  living as a reduction in the American proclivity for waste.
Per capita energy use in the United States at 310 million Btu is double
or triple  that  of European countries having comparable standards of living:
West Germany, 135 million; Denmark, 140 million;  Sweden,  160 million; and
Switzerland,  90 million Btu per year.

Specific Energy Productivity
I.  Winter Reduction of  Living and Working Space  Temperatures.
     Estimates of reduction in fuel consumption resulting  from lowering
of thermostat settings are based on the degree-day system.   Variations
in heating fuel demand are assumed to  follow the  degree-day  experience.
It is further assumed that one degree-day per  day is  saved for  each
degree the thermstat setting  is  lowered.   The  fractional fuel  saving
is then the degree days  saved multiplied  by the length  of  the heating
season and divided by the 30  year normal  seasonal  degree days.

-------
                                 15-9
     The national average annual total is 5,156 degree days  for  an average
heating season length of 212 days.   Using these figures,  one computes a
fuel saving of four percent

              212 days x 1 degree    x  100 = 4%/°p (National Average)
              5.156 degree days
per degree the thermostat is lowered.
     A  265 day heating  season for Boston shows a 30-year normal of 5600
degree  days.  These figures  indicate  a 4.7% fuel saving for each degree
Boston  thermostats are  lowered.
     in a statistical analysis  prepared  by a  Special  Task Force Group
of NOAA, Department  of  Commerce,1  42  heating  seasons,  averaged, on a
 state  by state basis but weighted  for population densities  and  fuel  type
 showed Gaussian  normal  distributions  for the  data  and no  significant
 trends.  When weighted  in this way the 42-year mean (1931-1973)  for  all
 fuels is 4,752 degree days with a standard deviation of  203 degree days.
 For an average heating season of 212 days, one standard  deviation repre-
 •«»nf less than o™ ^ree day per dav variation.   In other words, lowering
 thermostats by only one degree could compensate fuel demand for a one
 standard deviation colder winter.
      Further analysis  showed that the coldest winter  in 100 would cause
 a 10%  increase  in demand for all fuels; coldest in 10, a 5.5% increase;
 and coldest  in  5, a 3.6% increase.
      Most weather variability  can be accounted for by a reduction of  only
  1° -  2° in  space heating temperatures.  Further reductions will  affect
  economies  in the use of fuel.
       It is  estimated  that about 5 x  1012  cubic feet  of  gas was consumed
  in the coterminous  United States  for space heating in 1971.  A net  re-
  duction of  living and  working space temperatures  by 6°  would have cut
  gas consumption by about 1012 cubic feet (1012 cubic feet  of gas is
  equivalent to 2 x 108 barrels of oil).
       The estimated total distillate oils used for heating  in 1971 was
     dated  September  18,  1973

-------
                                    15-10
   550 x 10  barrels.  The 6° reduction would have saved 110 x 106 barrels
   (Average total distillate consumption in 1971 was 3 x 106 barrels of oil-)
        Experience in New England to date shows 16% savings in #2 fuel oil '
   consumption (corrected for weather)  with one distributor reporting a
   greater  than 20% reduction in demand through voluntary action  stimulated
   by forecasts of substantial shortages.   Electric utilities  report  a 12%
   drop  in  demand.
        The reduction of  temperature  in living  and  working  space  is a  demon-
   strated  effective  means of  curtailing demand.  To effect an overall re-
   duction  in energy  demand incentives  will be n^^ ^
     ,                      	——	•     iieiaea to encourage similar
   reductions in spare heating^tgnEeratures by all regard!... of the type
  of fuel used.                                   "          ~	^~

  II.  Increase Space Cooling
       As is  the case with heating degree days, we have cooling degree days
  as  a useful indicator  of energy consumption for space cooling.   Cooling
  degree days are  computed relative to  a base temperature 5°F  less than the
  desxred indoor temperature.   For  a  desired  indoor temperature of 72°F  the
  base temperature is 67°F.   Each day's average temperature less  the  base
  temperature gives the cooling degree  days for  that day.   An increase in
  space  cooling  norms  from 72°F to  78°F  increases the base  temperature to
  73 F and  saves 6 degree days per day  for the cooling season.  The total
  annual cooling degree days is rather  sensitive  to  the base temperature
 Weather Bureau data averaged over several years for Atlanta, Philadelphia
 and Minneapolis show the following:
            Base Temperature             Annual Cooling -nppr»»_
                                 Atlanta     Philadelphia   Minneapolis
70
73
877
505
584
338
 42%
                                                              362
                                                              198
                                                               42%
     About a third of the energy put into an air conditioning gystem ^
consumed in humidity conditioning and other fixed losses that will not vary
with thermostat setting, yet the above figures still indicate about a
10% savings for each degree increase in the thermostat setting

-------
                                 15-11
     in commercial buildings the additional air conditioning load produced
by lighting is substantial.  A reduction of general lighting levels by
one-third will further reduce the energy requirements for air conditioning.
Residential air conditioners consume about 300,000 barrels of oil equi-
valent a day.  Assuming 50% compliance with the above reduction in thermo-
stat settings, 100,000 barrels a day would be saved.  Commercial systems
at a 650,000 barrels a day consumption rate could save over 200,000 barrels
a day.
 III.   Improved Performance  of Domestic and Small Commercial Heating Equipment
      It is  estimated  that substantial improvements  can be made  in the
 efficiencies of  installed oil burning furnaces  through cleaning, adjustment
 and minor repairs.  When fuel oil was cheap  and plentiful  the main objective
 of periodic burner  maintenance  was reliable  performance  during  the heating
 season.  This ordinarily does not lead  to a  greatest efficiency adjustment.
      Spot checks conducted  in  the past  have  indicated that at  least  50% of
 those burners tested were operating at  efficiencies less than  need be.
      Potential fuel savings range from 33%  for burner efficiency improvement
 from  50% to 75% to about 7% for improvement  from 70% to 75%.   It is  esti-
 mated  fuels savings by burner tune up will average 15%.
       It  is  also estimated  that because of pyramiding safety factors in de-
 sign,  many  furnaces are overtired.  This is particularly likely when homes
 are  heated  to temperatures some  6° below the previous norms.  Decreasing
 the  firing  rate will  increase burner efficiency by decreasing  the off/on
 cycle ratio.  An additional 5% - 10% fuel savings  should be realizable by
 using a nozzle with  a lower firing rate.  A twice-a-year  change of firing
 rate by replacing  oil burner nozzles to  provide a  firing  rate  for spring
 and fall about  60% of that needed in mid-winter should  Improve system
  efficiency even further.   In some burners,  it  is possible to  control the
  firing rate by adjusting the oil pump  pressure.
       A third option for increasing the efficiency  of some converted  furnaces
  is to add baffling to keep the hot gasses from the combustion in contact
  with  the furnace walls longer  for more efficient  heat transfer.   It is
  difficult to estimate the savings to be realized  by adjustment, adding, or

-------
                                   15-12
  replacing  combustion chambers  and  baffles.  A  figure  of  2%  is used here.
       On the basis  that  50% of  the  oil  furnaces can be made  more efficient,
  effecting  fuel  savings  of from 20% to  40%, the savings from these measures
  in  1971 would have been from 55 x  106  to 110 x 106 barrels  of distillates.
       It is  not  expected that dramatic  improvements can be made in gas
  furnaces because gas  is basically  a cleaner burning fuel.   By careful ad-
  justment of air/fuel  ratios, the addition of baffles  in some instances,
  and a reduction, of firing rate, however, 10% to 20% savings should be
  realizable on 50% of  the furnaces.   In 1971 these measures would have saved
  from 0.25 x W±Z to 0.5 x 1012 cubic feet of gas.

 IV.   Reduce by One.third General Lighting in Living and  Working  Spaces
      It is  now generally conceded that  our  living and  working  space is over-
 lighted by  a factor of two for  all  but  special  conditions.   Moreover,
 illumination while  only about  2.5%  of our total energy use,  consumes  about
 one  quarter of  the  electrical  energy produced.  In those  regions where
 major  fractions  of  the electricity  produced  is  by oil  or  gas, reduction of
 lighting levels  can affect substantial  reductions  in their use,
     It  is  true  that  lighting supplies  a  substantial fraction of the heat
 in many  buildings,  even  in the  commercial sector where lighting is mostly
 fluorescent,  but it is an inefficient way to provide heat in winter and
 the  same heat presents a major  air  conditioning load in summer.  Substitu-
 tion of  fluorescent lighting for incandescent can provide adequate lighting
 at greatly improved efficiency.
     On  the basis of 50% compliance, it is estimated that lowering lighting
 levels in homes by 30% would save an equivalent of 35,000 barrels of crude
 oil a day and in commercial buildings,  the savings would  be about 70,000
barrels a day.  Substitution of fluorescent  lighting for  incandescent
 today requires a fixture change which discourages  the switch to more efficient
lighting in  homes.
                                     Increase  Occupancy of  Interurban
     The pattern of  highway vehicular  travel is  as  follows:

-------
                                  15-13
                        All Highway Vehicle-Miles


                 URBAN                               RURAL
                                                      Ik r\o/
                  52%
     PASSENGER          CARGO
        84%             _I6£.
COMMUTING   OTHER
   34%       66%
       Motor gasoline consumption is about 7 million barrels a day.   Gaso-
  line mileage for all cars is about 25% less for urban than for rural travel.
  Rural gasoline consumption is thus about 2.5 million barrels a day.  A 10%
  saving is estimated resulting from a 55 mph speed Itait.  The savings is
  thus 250,000 barrels a day.
       Intraurban passenger car average occupancy should be increased from 1.4
  to  2.4 passengers per car.  Of the 4.5 million barrels of gasoline a day
  used for  intraurban travel, about 1.3 million barrels a day are used for
  commuting.  The occupancy increase of one person would cut commuting gaso-
  line consumption by one-third, a  savings  of 430,000 barrels a day.  In-
  creased occupancy for other use could add  savings  of approximately 350,000
  barrels a day.

  VI. Burn Used  Crankcase and  Waste Industrial  as  an Additive  or Substitute
       for  Residual  Oil
       Waste oil  from automobiles  and  industrial machinery  account  for  nearly
   half  of  the oil pollution of  the oceans.   Porricelli  and  Storch*  estimated
   *  D. Porricelli and Richard L.  Storch,  U.S.  Coast Guard,  "Tankers and the
      Ecology," 1971.

-------
                                   15-14
  that for 1969-1970, 1,440,000 metric tons of crankcase oil and  750,000
  metric tons of waste oil from industrial machinery made up 29.4%  and  15  3%
  of the sources of oil polluting,  respectively.   Tankers accounted for
  28.4%,  other vessels for 17.3%, refinery/petrochemical plants for 6 1%
  off-shore production for 2.1% and  tank  barges for  1.4% of  the approximately
  5  million metric  tons of oil  pollution.
      Northern States Power Company got  encouraging results from a  three-
  day  experiment  in which  waste motor oil was burned with coal to increase
  the  capacity  of an  electric generating plant, Northwest Petroleum Association
  reported.
      The  state of Vermont plants to recycle one million gallons of waste
 oil a year in a new asphalt refinery of £prague Oil Company.
      The crankcase oil ls equivalent to about 10 million barrels and  waste
 machinary oil to about 5 * million barrels.   If, as an initial  effort
 75% of  this were collected and burned in place of residual  oil,  over  11
 million barrels of residual oil would h. a,^  ^d  ocean oil pollnMhI1
 would be reduced by a third.

 VII.  A 15% Overall  Reduction  in Industrial Energy  Consumption
      American industry is so diverse  that  specific  conservation recommenda-
 tions cannot  be made;  however,  several leaders in industry have stated that
 an  average savings of  15% could be made by all industry, principally by
 exercising  good energy control and management practices.  Of some 15 indus-
 trial programs known  to be in progress, initial results would bear this
 out.  Industry consumes in excess of 10 million barrels a day, so an in-
dustry wide average reduction of energy use by 15% would save 1.5 million
barrels  a day.

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                                15-15
                              APPENDIX I
In this appendix we have illustrated by bar graph and regional map,  the
patterns of consumption by fuels, uses, and districts.  Also included are
bar graphs and tabular presentations of savings to be realized by energy
productivity management measures (conservation) in the Household/Commercial,
Industrial, and Transportation sectors.  Brief analyses of how the savings
were estimated are also included.

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                                          15-16

   Consumption  by Fuels, Uses,  and Districts
  Petroleum
  Products
  (106  barrels)
                  1126
                Household/
                Commercial
  Industrial   Transportation    Electric
                               Power
                                                                          * indicates  amount
                                                                          over  regional summa
 37

Misc.
                                 *   10,252
                 7,144
Natural
Gas
(109  cu ft)
               Household/
               Commercial
                                             743
                              3,993
                                                        A
Industrial   Transportation    Electric
                              Power
                                                                         Misc.
           1 = Ha* ^[Slana, Middle Atlantic
               and East North Central "ales

           B a South Atlantic and Xast
               South Central states
           0 = West Horth Central states
               D = West South Central states

               B = Mountain states

               t = Pacific states

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                                        15-17

Consumption by  Fuels,  Uses, and Districts

  (1971)
Bituminous Coal
and Lignite
 (  10*>  tons)
  149
                    11
                Household/
                Cownercial
Industrial   > Tr»w«f»ttation
                                                           Electric
                                                                          Mine.
                                                                 304
 Hydroelectric  and
 Nuclear  Power
 <109 kWh)
                                E
                 Household/
                 Commercial
 Industrial   Transportation    Electric
                                                                            Miac.
                A = Haw England, Middle Atlantic
                     and Bast North Central stataa

                B = South Atlantic and East
                     South Central *tatei
                0 * «Wt lorth Central state*
                    D = West South Central states

                    £ 3 Mountain states

                    f a Pacific state*

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                                     15-18
    Energy Productivity  Management Measures:  Household/Commercial
        Storm       6"     Sealing
       Windows   Ceiling    and
         and      Insul.   Weather-
        Doors            stripping
                                     2.5  to 5%
                                     \
           I
Solar     Energy
Assist   Storage
Heat      Heat    Increased
Pumps  Exchangers   Burner
               Efficiencies


Oil Savings
, (106 barrels)
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D
Region E
Region F
Nat. Gas Savings
(109 cu ft)
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D
Region E
Region F 	
AJJ-C<-L. L ic oavxngs
(10 ^kWh)
Region A
Region B
Region C
Region D
Region E
Region F
Storn
Windows
and
Doors
8.
2.2
1.2
.8
.5
.75

41
11
10
7
5
12
••" I' M in



.6


6"
Ceiling
Insul.
14.
4.
2.
1.4
.8
/1. 2

68
18
16
12
8
20__


*
0


Sealing
and
Weather-
stripping


Solar
Assist
7. 17.5-35.
2. 5. -10.
1. 2.5- 5.
•7 1.8- 3.5
•4 1. - 2.
.6 1.5- 3.

34
9
8
6
4
10



1.3



85-170
23- 45
20- 40
15- 30
10- 20
25- 50



3.3-6.5




Energy
Storage
17.5-35.
5. -10.
2.5- 5.
1.8- 3.
1. - 2.
1.5- 3.

85-170
23- 45
20- 40
15-30
10- 20
25- 50



3.3-6.5




Heac
Pumps
70.
20.
10.
5 7.
4.
6.

340
90
80
60
40
100



13




Heat
Exchangers
42.
12.
6.
4.2
2.4
3.6

204
54
48
36
24
60



6.5




Increased
Burner
Efficiencies
3'5-70
10-20
5-10
3.5-7
2-4
3 6

85-176
23-45
20-40
15-30
10-20
25-50

. _




(Regions are as defined on other graphs.)

 *  Electrically heated houses are better insulated.

-------
                               15-19
Energy Productivity Management Measures:  Industrial
         Coal
          A
         21X10*
          tons
  Oil
80x1O6
 bbls
Gas
1500x1O9
 cu ft
               Hydro & Nuclear
           'O
     A = New England, Middle Atlantic
         and East North Central states

     B = South Atlantic and East
         South Central states
     0 s West North Central states
                D = West South Central states

                E = Mountain states

                f * tfroifio statea

-------
                                   15-20
                ENERGY PRODUCTIVITY MANAGEMENT MEASURES
 Industrial

 • Improved heat recovery
 • Increased furnace efficiency
 • Review heating equipment
 • Stop heat leaks
 • Waste heat utilization
 • Waste product as fuel
 • Waste product recovery
 • Total energy systems
                       It is estimated that the industrial
                    sector can accomplish 15%* energy savings
                    by a combination of these and other tech-
                    niques.   Companies with energy management
                    programs have done this well and better.
 Region


 A

 B

 C

D

E

F
 Coal
 10btons

 15

  5

 0.7

 0.1

0.6

0.4

 21
 SAVINGS:


 Oil
 10° bbls

 25

 12

  3

 30

2.7

7.4
                              80
  gas
10  cuft

   330

   174

   100

   680

    77

   134

 1500
Hydro and Nuclear Power
 10  KwHrs

        9

        6

        2

      0.6

        4

      23
      45


-------
                            15-21
Energy Productivity Management Measures: Transportation
120x10
bbls crude
              90x10°
             bbls crude
                                  AUTOMOBILES
                                                            40x10°
                                                          bbls crude
                          7x10°
                        bbls cr,
                   economy
                                             16x10°
                                           bbls crude
 Electronic
 Ignition
Radial
 Tires
 Discourage    Discourage       Weight
 Automatic        Air         Reduction
Transmissions  Conditioning    of Oars
                 32x1Ou
                bbls crude
                                           8x10°
                                         bbls crude
                Electronic
                 Ignition
              (single unit
                  trucks)
                          Electronic
                           Ignition
                          (combination
                             trucks)
                              TRUCKS

-------
                                     15-22
                              TRANSPORTATION I


   Automobiles:  108 total numbers

          Gasoline consumption      75  x 109 gallons
               l+* g*^°ns/year ?er
               Std. 10/ compact)
  Electronic Ignition*
        Savings:   2.5 X lg9 gallons gasoline
             or   60 X 10  bbls gasoline^   r

Radial Tires+                            /


Per retro** it?' "otal

       10% X 1/4 = 2.5%

       Savings:  1.9 X lg9 gallons gasoline
            or   45 X 10°  bbls gasoline
                                                             011
                                                         5 X
                                                                      oil/gal  gas
                                                          „-          .   .,
                                                          J/5 X  10   gal  oil
                                                   
-------
                                 15-23
                          TRANSPORTATION II


Trucks (Single Unit)

       Gasoline             20 X 10* gallons/year          100 X  106  gal  oil
       Diesel              2.8 X 10  gallons/year
Electronic Ignition

         (Retrofit 1/3 gasoline  truck  population for 10% improvement in
gas mileage  @  $100 per retrofit).   Total improvement  10/£ X 1/3 = J.J/o

         savings:  6^ X  10*  gallons                          ^ ^ ^ Q£
 Trucks  (Combination)

        Gasoline
        Diesel         5.5 X 10  gallons
Gasoline         5 X ^gallons                 25X10   gals  oil
 Electronic Ignition
         (Retrofit 1/3 gasoline truck population for 10% improvement in
 gas mileage @ $100 per retrofit)  Total improvement W/, X 1/3 - J.-3/o
                            u
         Savings:   1.7 X 10, gallons                6
             or       4 X 106 barrels          (8 X 10bbbls  crude)

-------
                                  15-24

                         TRANSPORTATION III


 Discourage Automatic  Transimissions

     Over  half  the  Pintos  and Vegas sold  in 1973 were equipped with auto-
 matic  transmissions with  a fuel penalty  of 6%.  Assume 40% of 10 X 106
 cars sold in 1974  are economy size, and  20% of these American makes.
 If  1/4 rather  than 1/2 of these are equipped with manual transmissions,
 and similarly  for  imported cars 10% X  6% = 0.6% would be saved.  108
 "* °*8 gals/yr-car =  640 X 10°gallons.  6% X 640 X 105 gallons =
     X 10 gallons  or  9 X  10 barrels
                      1.8  X 10  bbls crude

            standard cars  sold have automatic transmissions.  60% of
in vn
of thai CarS   J "I4 W°uld ^ 6 X 10  staadard -cars.  Assume only half
of these are equipped with automatic transmissions, i.e.Q35% shift to
ITTl «V-,y  i?3rS X 9°° ^Igns/car year = 1.8 XglO^allons.
6^ X 1.8 X 10  gallons = 108 X 10° gallons = 2.6 X 106 barrels 5.2 X 106bbls crude
Note: Fully synchronous, 4-speed transmissions would have to be available
and heavily promoted or subsidized, or a tax on automatic transmissions might
De considered.

-------
                                 15-25
                           TRANSPORTATION IV
Discourage Air Conditioning

    Over one quarter of the Pintos and Vegas sold in 1973 were equipped
with air conditioning having a 9% - 20% fuel penalty.  The 20% penalty
occurs in heavy traffic summer driving with afilot of stop and go.  In
the 1972 model year nearly 70% or over 6 X 10  units of American cars
had air conditioning.  It is estimated that 75% of the standard cars will
be so equipped in 1974; 4.5 X 10  units, and 25% of economy cars; 1 X 10
units.

    Assume an average fuel penalty of 15%, cut airconditioning use to 1/2
the cars.
                     f                                  f
    Economy: 0.5 X 10  X 640 gallons/year car = 320 X 10  gallons/yr.
             15% X 320 X 10  = 48 X 10  gallons or approx. 10  barfels.

    Standard:         ,                                q
             2.25 X 10  X 900 gallons/year car = 2 X 10  gallons /yr.
             15% X 2 X 10  = 0.3 X 10  gallons or approx 7 X 10


                               Total Savings    8 X 10,barrels of gasoline
                               50% yield       16 X 10 barrels of crude.

Incentives would be needed to affect a reduction in air-conditioning use.
A tax on airconditioners might be imposed.

-------
                               15-26
                       TRANSPORTATION V
Encourage Weight Reduction in Automobiles
      Data has shown that automobile fuel economy is inversely
proportonal to weight.   (See EPA Data October 1973).
The current technique has been to reduce weight by  decreasing size,
Weight reduction without reduction in size of standard cars should
be encouraged.  New reinforced plastics, for example, offer poten-
tial fgr 30% weight reduction.  Assume a 15% weight reduction in
6 x 10  standard size cars, saving (15% of 900 gallons/yr.car) 135
gallons/yr.car.  The total saving for 6 x 106 cars  x 135 gallons/
yr.car is 800 x 10  gallons of gasoline or about 20 x 10  barrels
of gasoline (at 50% yield equivalent to 40 x 10  barrels of crude),
                       Fuel Economy
Weight of Car





2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500
  Fuel Economy
Uncontrolled 1957-67
      23.2

      21.7

      19.1

      17.1

      15.4

      13.5

      12.6

      11.7

      10.9

      10.5
Fuel Economy
   1973 car
     23.8

     21.9

     19.7

     1.7.5

     15.6

     13.9

     10.8

     10.1

      9.3

      8.6
% Change
Controlled vs,
Uncontrolled
Emissions

   +2.6

   + 0.9

   + 3.1

   + 2.3

   +1.3

   + 3.0

  -14.3

  -13.7

  -14.7

  -18.1

-------
                               16-1
                    Appendix Paper No. 16
            SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
   RELATED TO THE LIQUID METAL FAST BREEDER REACTOR
      AND ITS PRINCIPAL ALTERNATIVES, ESPECIALLY COAL
                        Professor David  J. Rose
                    Nuclear Engineering Department
              Massachusetts Institute of Technology
                    Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139
       (Testimony prepared for the Subcommittee to Review the
       National Breeder Reactor Program,  Joint Committee on
       Atomic Energy,  United States Congress.)
                           June 17, 1975
                       (Corrected copy)
                             ABSTRACT
     Besides energyconservation and more efficient energy utilization,
the only serious options for generating bulk electric power for the
period beyond A.D. 2000 are breeder reactors, controlled fusion,  solar
power', or coal.  This paper provides the Subcommittee a detailed
survey of the main environmental  and health problems associated with
these options, concentrating principally on nuclear power  (specific
to breeder reactors where possible) and on coal.   The other options
receive brief mention, and generally present less  environmental hazard.
     Nuclear power, including  the LMFBR, seems much more attractive
environmentally  than  does direct  coal  combustion,  unless strict
emission standards  are imposed over most of  the  country, e.g., by
stack gas scrubbing,  etc.  An  alternate  strategy of synthetic fuels
for  coal could  present much  less   environmental  difficulty,  but very
possibly at prohibitive  expense  (for electric  power generation).
      Under  present de facto  conditions of  little control over
emissions from  coal burning,  the relative  hazards of (coal/nuclear)
are  something  like (100/1)  against coal.   Approximately the same
ratio is expected to  apply to the relative hazards of coal vis-a-vis
fission breeder reactors.

-------
                                  16-2

  1'   The  options  to be_^compared..
      The nuclear breeder, compared  to what? one properly asks.   In
  the  long term, by which I mean early in the next century, the choices
  will be  a nuclear fission breeder;  controlled fusion; bulk solar
  power; coal; and/or more vigorous conservation and more efficient
  energy utilization.  Conservation and efficient utilization have
  been first on my list for several years; much can be done beyond what
  is being done now.
      The main content of this paper will be a comparison of the en-
 vironmental effects of  nuclear power vis-a-vis coal;  but the other
 possibilities deserve some discussion.   Some may not actually be
 really practical,  and none is without substantial difficulty.

 II.   Conserva ti on.
      This option  is easy and  brief  in the writing, hard  in realiza-
 tion.   Up to  a limit  generally estimated as  30-40% of classic (1972)
 energy  projections, most predictions agree that energy conservation
 through more  efficient use has net beneficial environmental impact.
 The benefit arises from (a) less pollution via less fuel mined,
 transported,  transformed and consumed; (b)  less partly reacted fuel
 exhausted to  the biosphere, in a still highly reactive state.  Be-
 yond 30-40% savings, the payoff is unclear,  because the total impact
 of different  life-styles is not well enough known.  The main obstacles
 to substantial conservation as a viable option are the attitudes
and personal desires of  people, and the inadequacy of institutions.

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                                16-3

111•   Controlled fusion.
     Research and development in controlled nuclear fusion proceeds
well scientifically/ and seems technologically possible; but the
outcome is still uncertain.  In many technological and engineering
ways, controlled fusion will be as far advanced from any fission
reactors as fission is from coal-burning.  Fusion will cost a lot,
and we won't know the total answer for some years yet.  Nevertheless,
I believe it to be worth the substantial investments made and
planned, because of expected advantages in real security, and
general environmental quality.  However, because no actual fusion
reactor has yet been built, what follows is somewhat speculative.
     A large fusion reactor, generating  (say) 1000 megawatts of
electric power, is expected to contain an inventory of not more than
10 kilograms of tritium, one of its most important radioactive
materials.  Tritium is used as the fuel  for the reactor; it is
radioactive, with a half-life of 12.3 years, and must be regenerated
in the fusion reactor, using neutrons from the fusion reaction.
The  10 kg. of tritium would be mainly distributed  in the moderating
blanket of the reactor,  and in the tritium recovery equipment.
Its  activity is about one  billion curies, a great  deal.  But the
relative biological hazard of tritium is very  low  compared to either
fission products  (strontium-90, cesium-137, etc.)  or the transuranic
elements  (plutonium, curium, americium,  etc.)  produced  in any fission
reactor, whether  it is  a breeder or not.  Best present  estimates
place  the relative  toxicity of the radioactive inventory at  1/1000
or  1/10,000  that  of an  equivalent fission reactor.  Those numbers
are  meant as guidelines only, because they  are not yet  well  deter-
mined.   In addition, the relative safety of  a  fusion  reactor depends

-------
                                 16-4
 also on it not haying a major accident,  just as with fission reactors;
 experience with fission reactors indicates that safety against
 severe accidents can only be judged with respect to fairly specific
 designs.   No such design yet exists for  fusion.  But all  predictions
 point to  a relatively benign device.
      With regard to theft and diversion  of nuclear  material,  the
 problem does not arise.   To  be sure,  one can make an H-bomb with
 deuterium (readily available)  and  tritium,-  but  an A-bomb  is needed
 to  trigger it,  and there are other even  easier  ways of making H-bombs
 (given the trigger).   Thus the incentive to steal tritium for clan-
 destine purposes is very low.
      No radioactive wastes arise from the  fuel  cycle  itself (except
 tritium-contaminated items).   The  high energy (14 million electron
 volt)  neutrons  from the  fusion reaction  will  activate  the reactor
 structure  itself,  the  degree depending upon  the materials used.
 Work  by Steiner at the Holifield National Laboratory and  others
 shows  that the  problem of old  radioactive reactor hulks should not
 be worse than that of  old fission  reactor hulks.  That problem in
 turn  is small compared to that of  high-level  radioactive  wastes
 from  the fission process itself.
      In summary, then, fusion  looks very promising environmentally,
 but it  is  too soon  to  tell with much precision.

 IV.   Solar power.
     It has been glibly said that solar power is environmentally
benign.  This is not so, except for certain applications,  and even
then only under certain conditions.  Bulk electricity via solar
power aims to extract about 20 watts/meter2 on the average from a

-------
                                16-5

land surface covered with equipment.   What equipment?  Whence arises
the environmental impact.
     Solar photo-voltaic power plants would operate via exposure
of large areas of sensitive devices (many square kilometers).
Typical active materials besides silicon (environmentally fairly
benign,  but expensive) are cadmium sulfide and gallium arsenide.
These last two could be eroded away by rain, blowing dustr etc.,
and the impact of such erosion has not been assessed, to the best
of my knowledge.  The materials are toxic.
     Thermal conversion schemes (e.g., boiling some working fluid
to run a turbine-generator) are not so likely to suffer from
chemical environmental difficulties, but another remains, common
to most solar energy schemes:  thermal pollution, surprisingly
enough. The problem is that the system absorbs almost all the solar
energy incident  in the large array of conversion elements, then
converts some of it at low efficiency into  electricity.  Where does
the remaining energy go?  Waste heat, rejected at the  site.  Cal-
culations  for typical  solar power  systems  show that  the resulting
waste heat problem  is  comparable to  or worse  than that arising  from
a fossil or nuclear power plant, except  that  the heat  is  distributed
over the  large  collecting area.
     One  can  in  principle overcome this  difficulty by  increasing
the reflectivity of the  surrounding  and  interstitial areas,  thus
preserving an unchanged  overall heat balance. But  so  could  we  paint
the desert white (so  to  speak)  any time  we wish, to  correct  for
excess  heat generation by nuclear  or fossil fuels.   The  end  result
of this  reasoning  is  that thermal  pollution ger  se_ is  not an in-
principle bar to using solar,  fossil, or nuclear fuels,  a point not

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                                 16-6
 generally recognized.(The "green-house" effect  from buildup of
 carbon dioxide in the air, from burning fossil fuels is another
 matter, to which I turn later.)

 V.   Nuclear breeder power.
      Expected environmental impact of the breeder reactor has been
 treated in the LMFBR environmental impact statement.  Aiming toward
 a general comparison with coal,  I  take a somewhat different approach.
      The three main hazards to be  considered are accidents, diversion
 of  nuclear materials,  and storage  of  nuclear wastes.
      (A)   Accidents.
      The range of accidents is different from the range pertaining
 to  present-day light-water reactors  (LWR's);  the latter class have
 been  well-studied in USAEC Report  WASH-1400,  the so-called  Rasmussen
 Report.   From reading it,  and  other independent  assessments (by  the
 American  Physical Society,  by  the  Union  of  Concerned Scientists, etc.)
 I conclude  that  the final  version  to  be  issued this  Fall will
 represent satisfactorily well  the  situation  in LWR's.
      Breeders  have advantages  and  disadvantages,  compared to  LWR's.
 The breeder reactor itself runs at low pressure,  and the chance of a
 pressure-induced  failure in the sodium circulating system seems
 vanishingly remote; this is the main  accident mode discussed  for
 LWR's.  On the other hand, the system is filled with chemically
 reactive molten sodium, and contains  more plutonium  than do
present-day LWR's even after long periods of operation.  Also, the
reactor core, made of plutonium,  is not in its geometrically most
reactive configuration,  and one can imagine accident sequences that
lead to the reactor having a sudden nuclear excursion,  in effect, a

-------
                                16-7
small nuclear explosion whose consequences are still under examination,
and which under some circumstances might be serious.
     I am not an expert on guessing what the chance for such an
excursion might be, but suggest that no study has been made of the
proposed breeder designs comparable to what has been done for LWR's
in Report WASH-1400.  But I point out, and demonstrate in a later
table that the entire LWR reactor accident sequence adds very little
to the already small LWR environmental hazard.  By admittedly in-
tuitive extension of this reasoning, I would be surprised if the
LMFBR presented a significant actuarial risk to the public.  It
should be small compared to normal hazards encountered by people as
they go about their ordinary business.  Nevertheless, a study of the
consequences and probability of accidents  in a LMFBR could and should
be attempted, based on  the best information and estimation techniques
available.
      (B)  Diversion and sabotage.
     This topic will be the  subject of  another hearing before the
Subcommittee, discussed by others more  knowledgeable than I.  I
have  some opinions  on  the matter;  for instance,  fuel reprocessing
and  fuel  fabrication should  be  done at  the same  location,  thus
minimizing  the  transport of  concentrated  plutonium.  But  I prefer  to
leave  this  topic  to other  sessions  and  other  witnesses.
      (C)  Waste disposal.
      The  situation is  not  appreciably different  from that pertaining
to LWR's:   the  wastes  are  quite similar in character and  amount.
      The  nuclear  waste problem is unlike  many other environmental
problems  that arise from materials:
      (1)   The wastes  are in  general extremely hazardous to health.

-------
                                 16-8
       (2)  In many cases, the hazard clearly extends well beyond the
 time horizon of what many people see for effective social control.
 The question of exporting social cost in time then flavors many
 assessments and discussions; for example, what effort should be made
 to reduce social costs (i.e., hazards)  to future generations?  I
 believe that solutions are inexpensively available (that is, at
 very small cost compared to the incremental benefits of generating
 electric power by nuclear means, over generating it by burning
 fossil fuels).   However,  the costs are  not zero,  and the slight
 hazards refer to future time - generally the far  future.  Thus the
 problem is strictly  a moral one:  incurring present costs for benefits
 that can only be realized by others.
      (3)   Several studies and analyses  are  now being  started,  the
 results of which will  clarify the  costs  and residual  hazards  of
 different stratagems of nuclear  disposal.
     The  main hazard consists  of wastes  from the  fuel reprocessing
 plant:   fission  products  and various transuranic  elements; but  also
 some transuranic  elements  (mainly plutonium) appear with  contam-
 inated  tools, clothing, etc., mainly from the  fuel fabrication
 activities.  Thus we have the following main categories:
     (a)  Fission products.
     The wastes appear almost entirely at the fuel reprocessing
plants; and reasonable steps can (and in my opinion, should)  be
taken to minimize Qman releases at,the reactor site.
     The fuel reprocessing wastes represent  by  far the most
 active  and hazardous category, on  time scales  up  to a few
 hundred years.   The elements almost all have intermediate
 atomic  weights  (strontium-90, cesium-137, krypton-85);

-------
all have half-lives less than 30 years, with some exceptions, the
exceptions (e.g./ iodine-129) could for waste disposal purposes be
put into the next category (b) below.  Thus after (say) 700 years,
the hazard is reduced to one ten-millionth of the original value.
Then for all practical purposes the hazard from any given initial
lot of  fission product waste  can be considered terminated at 700 years.
     This category of wastes  is very  important and will be discussed
further below.
      (b)  Actinides  from used fuel  reprocessing.
     These  are neptunium,  Plutonium,  americium,  curium, etc.,  formed
by neutron  absorption,  into  the uranium of the  reactor blanket,  and
 abosrbed into plutonium.  The wastes are characterized by extremely
 high toxicity (especially plutonium), and very long half-life
 (24,600 years for plutonium-239, and longer for neptunium-237, which
 dominates everything at very long times).  Thus there exists a
 million-year hazard; since these wastes come with those of category
 (a) (above), and the hazard of category  (a) dominates out to 500
 years, our attitude toward these wastes is determined by our sense
 of responsibility.toward  generations  in the far future.
      This category  of wastes  is important and will be discussed
 further below.
       (c)  LOW-level contaminated material.
      This  is principally tools, clothing,  etc., used in  nuclear  fuel
 reprocessing plants,  that has become slightly  contaminated, mainly
 with  plutonium.
       Recent plans have involved sequestering them in geologic
  structures such as salt mines, adjacent to the high-level wastes of
  categories (a)  and (b).  They have been encapsulated and dumped in

-------
                                 16-10




 Atlantic ocean deeps by European groups; I am personally unattracted


 by that activity as a continuing fix, because assessment of the


 hazards is so incomplete.


      No better solution than sequestering presently exists, because


 of the bulk;  chemical treatment options applicable to the concen-


 trated wastes of category (b)  are sometimes applicable here, but


 certainly not universally.  Thus the likelihood remains at present


 that we will  be exporting some of these hazards in time;  but there


 are two ameliorating circumstances:   (i)  because of the extremely


 low specific  concentration,  the relative toxicity is not high (e.g.,


 comparable  to some  uranium ores),  (ii)  improved technology and op-


 erating practices can  either decrease  the absolute amount,  or in-


 crease the  feasibility of chemically stripping  out the active wastes,
                                                                   i  '

 so that they  can be added to those of  categories (a)  and  (b)  above.


 These  wastes  will not  be  specifically  discussed  further;  but many


 of the options discussed  below  apply,  at  least  in part.   The problem


 requires further study  and assessment,  and work  proceeds,  for  ex-


 ample  at The  Batelle-Northwest  Laboratories.


      (d)  Intermediate-level wastes.


     There are various kinds, but in general they could for  techno-


 logical and environmental  purposes be put into one or  another  of  the


 above  cateogiries:  either concentrate and handle  them as high-level


wastes; or, if the option  turns out to be ecologically sound,  dilute


and disperse  them.


     I turn now to discuss the high-level wastes  in more detail.


Substantial parts of this section are based on longer works by

-------
                                16-11
Kubo and Rose1'2... The wastes appear in acid solutions when spent
nuclear fuel is reprocessed.
     Figure  1  shows  the relative  toxicity of these wastes  as
 presently  and  typically envisaged.   Relative toxicity  is defined
 relative to  natural  high-grade uranium ore, as described in Ref.  2.
 The  steep  decline until 700 years represents the decay of  fission
 products,  as described above.  The  low level persistent remainder
 at toxicity  level 40 represents  iodine-129, which will be  incorpor-
 ated for purposes of this  discussion with  the  actinides.
      The actinides dominate after 700 years and  last about 10 million
 years;  the bump at 105 -  106 years  arises  from appearance  of  decay
 products not present in  the original waste.  The actinide  level can
 be changed by  chemical extraction,  and the figure  shows present
 normal practice — after removal of 99.5%  uranium and plutonium,
 which is  the limit of present nuclear fuel economic incentives.
      The  two time periods, each  with different environmental, social
 and political  implications, are  clear from Fig.  1.   Were  it not for
 the actinides, the nuclear waste problem could be said to require
 only 700  year  sequestration, which  is easy in  many geologic forma-
 tions or  engineered structures,  and which is  even discussable in
 terms of  longevity of social and political institutions.   On the
 other hand,  the million year period extends not only beyond the
 time horizon of social planning and responsibility, but also well
 1.  Arthur S. Kubo, "Technology Assessment of High-Level Nuclear
     Waste Management", MIT thesis, May 1973.
 2   Arthur S. Kubo and David J. Rose, "Disposal of Nuclear Wastes",
     Science, vol. 182, 1205-1211  (1973).

-------
                                16-12
            10'
            10"
o
X
o
h-
LJ
           10
         §
           10
         _
         LJ   p
         ir ir
            10
              50
                 10'
                  -  TOTAL
                  -  FISSION PRODUCTS
                  -  ACTINIDES
                  —  Sr+Cs
               1.0"
10
10'
                 YEARS AFTER DISCHARGE FROM REACTOR
Figure 1.  Toxicity of wastes  from light water  reactors, for an
equilibrium fuel cycle, with 99.5  percent  removal of uranium and
Plutonium.  Each metric ton of fuel is  assumed  to deliver a total
thermal energy of 33,000 megawatts x days  during its operating
lifetime.  The turn-up at 10^  years arises from growth of daughter
products not present in the original material,  which is not in
decay equilibrium.   The situation  with  nuclear  wastes from a breeder
reactor will be very similar.

-------
                                16-13
into geologic time.  For example, climatic conditions at Richland,
Washington, site of recent leaks from the old weapons production
storage tanks, were very different 20,000 years ago, and the future
is just as uncertain.
     What can be done?  Figure 2, taken also from Ref. 2, shows the
major possibilities.  Waste processing and disposal proceeds down-
ward from the liquid solution, toward final disposal lower  in the
future.  From the  late  1950's until  1971, the USAEC, its major  con-
tract  laboratories working on the problem and the National  Academy
of Sciences  (as  program reviewer) bit by bit convinced themselves
that  the best route was solidification of wastes with  characteris-
tics  like  those  of Fig. 1,  then shipment and disposal  in salt mines,
which is  route  1 of Fig. 2.
      That scheme has merit,  if the  site  is  chosen carefully to take
 into account not only technical but also other factors:  possible
 alternate uses for the land in the long term,  for instance.
      Other routes on Fig. 2 deserve serious study.  A principal one
 is route 2, where additional actinides are removed, to lower the
 right hand side of the toxicity curve of Fig. 1 by a  factor of about
 100.  Fortunately, the removed actinides can be re-cycled  in a.
 reactor designed  to burn them up; thus the long-term  hazard vanishes,
 Rough estimates put the  cost of that option at 0.01 - 0.03«/kwh,
 about 0.5 -  3%  of the  cost of generating the power.   In  shortening
 the period of concern  about the waste repository by a factor of  at
  least 1000,  extraction and nuclear  burnout of  the  actinides
  represents a real long-term hazard  reduction.  Fortunately,  some
  other routes are  worth exploring,  especially  if  the  actinides  are

-------
                              16-14
                      REPROCESS SPENT FUEL
                                 CHEMICAL SEPARATION
                              FISSION PRODUCTS
                              —"
                                         ACTINIDES
                                         TO REACTOR
                                         BURNOUT
                                  CHEMICAL SEPARATION
                                        Sr + Cs	
                                                   1
 LIGHT
CALCINE
                                 OTHER FISSION
                                                    (SOLIDIFY?)
                           SOLIDIFY
                                      "MAUSOLEA"
                      TEMPORARY STORAGE
                        I
                          TRANSPORT
                                 MINE  DISPOSAL
   INS ITU
   MELT
1
t
*
f

OCEANS
(UNSAFE)



L
SPACE] s
(TOO .,
SOON) '
                             _L
                   SALT
                    ETC
                            •°J"ER GEC)i£.GIC FORMATIONS"

                                   II
GRANITE
  ETC
riRMANENT
  ICE
Figure 2.   Taxonomy of nuclear waste disposal  options

-------
                                16-15
effectively removed in this way.  Storage in granitic rocks,
especially those whose drainage paths lead toward the ocean under
the continental shelf, is one idea.  Even a modification of the
melt-in-situ idea, where wastes flow into a specially prepared rock
chamber, dry out, heat via their own radioactivity, and fuse into
a glassy ball, is worth review.  Space disposal  is premature, and
ice structures seem too hazardous.  Disposal in  the sea-bed may'be
a possibility, but the idea  requires further careful  study.
      The cost of these different disposal methods must be correlated
 with the degree of hazard incurred (or avoided), so that social
 choices can be made with the best available information.
      in general, I think that the nuclear waste problem has been
 both over-emphasized by the critics, and mis-assessed by the USAEC
 and its contractees, who failed to recognize many implicit societal
 issues.
       (D)  Summary of the nuclear hazards.
      A number of overall surveys have been made of the nuclear
 hazards,  especially  in regard  to  light  water  reactors.   Table  I
  from Walsh3  summarizes the  situation  there; I expect that the  LMFBR
 will  not  be  more hazardous, because the main  hazards have little  to
  do with radiation  or reactor  accidents, but with normal occupational
  risks.  The  data are shown per plant-year of  operation,  where  the
  plant capacity is  taken  as 1000 megawatts,  corresponding to the
  large sizes  presently in vogue.
       Let us focus on the fatalities.   The largest contribution comes
  3.  P. Walsh, Environmental Engineers Thesis, Nuclear Engineering
      Department, Massachusetts Institute of Technology  (1974).

-------
                             16-16
    Table II.     Chemicals and Fuels from a Coal
                 Hydrogenation Plant with a Daily
                 Production Capacity of 30,000  Barrels*
                         Production,      Weight-Percent
       Products            bbl/day        of  Total  Product
Tar acids:
Phenol
o-Cresol
m- and p-Cresol
Xylenols
Total

Aroma tics:
Benzene
Toluene
Xylenes
Ethylbenzenes
Naphthalene
Mixed aromatic s
Total
Liquefied petroleum gas

Gasoline:
Motor
Aviation
Total

Grand total

428
48
530
374
1,380


2,210
3,770
4,190
750
790
1,780
13,490
7,300


5,260
3,660
8,920

31,090

1.9
0.2
2.4
1.6
6.1


8.2
13.9
15.4
2.8
3.7
6.8
50.8
16.4


15.6
11.1
26.8

100.00
*This plant could also produce 450 tons of (NH )  SO
and 89 tons of H-SO. per day.                 424
 From Reference 6.

-------
                                16-17



from mining and milling the uranium ore - regrettable, conventional

mining accidents; one tries to reduce them.  Next is reactor opera-

tion, and we see the main radiation-related contribution - about

one death every ten years somewhere, statistically attributable to

radiation from the plant; that number arises principally from off-

gas from boiling water reactors, a situation not pertaining to

breeder reactors - nor for that matter to new boiling water reactors.

     But the main number  to focus on is  the total - something like

one death every  two years from one cause or another,  attributable

to the existence and operation of that plant.   The days-off in-

juries are  a little over  500.

     Other  studies done by other groups, both in  the  Atomic Energy

Commission  and outside  it, came up with  similar numbers, within a

factor of about  2.  Uncertainties arise  for several reasons.  For

example, does  one  assign  an  accident to  the year  in which  the uranium

was  mined,  or  the  year in which  it was put into a reactor?  In  an

 industry such  as this  with growing  inventories, differences  in  ac-

 counting yield different results.   But the main thing to recall for a

 little later is the  main result -  certainly less  than one fatality

 per plant-year,  and  less than 1000  man-days off.

      The table does  not seem to contain the item most hotly debated:

 the probability of large nuclear accidents.  But the item is there

 under reactor operation:   a contribution of about 0.01 deaths/year

 statistically expectable from the sum of every cause listed in the

 latest revision of WASH-1400.  The reactor accident hazard is small
      ' ' •«*
 in LWR's, and would have to be 100 times larger to equal the contrib-

 ution from conventional accidents.   For example, the largest LWR

-------
                                  16-18

 hazard relates  to mining uranium; the LMFBR uses only about 1/100

 as much, so that hazard correspondingly decreases.
i                               •
      A more serious concern about nuclear power, in my opinion, is

 possible collapse of social concern.  By this, I mean nothing so

 simplistically  dangerous as a group of sloppy engineers in an other-

 wise well-functioning society, because such singular ineptitudes

 are blatant and correctable.  What I do mean is nations abdicating

 their sense of  social responsibility, or never having quite had it in

 the first place.  Then little by little, standards decline, quality

 erodes away, and trouble starts.  The predicted low accident rate

 depends upon the exercise of care, vigilance and responsibility

 typical of the best parts of society around us.   Edward Gibbon, in

 his history of the decline and fall of the Roman Empire,  chronicled

 fluctuating periods of social concern and neglect during that long

 epoch.   To be sure,  modern societies are different,  but they have

 come and gone in the last 50 years,  and some have changed from being

 highly responsible to being relatively incompetent.   Unfortunately,

 the topic is not a good  one for  analysis;  but I  choose  to believe

 in a society that trusts itself,  rather than one that distrusts

 itself.

 VI.   Coal.


      Compared  to nuclear power,  the  picture  for  coal  is more bleak.

 Problems  arise principally  in  two major  areas:  mining it  and  con-

 suming it.  Associated with mining coal  for  that  1000 megawatt power

 plant, we find about one death every two years or so, somewhat above

 the uranium mining hazard;  but that  is small compared with  coal workers

 pneumokoniosis, which has disabled tens of thousand of miners, and

 for which one would have to assign to each coal-burning plant  about

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                                16-19

one hundred miners presently totally incapacitated by coal dust in

their lungs.  Present U. S. payments for welfare on this account

total well over one billion dollars per year.  The dust standards

are now more strict.in. mines than hitherto - the limit is now 2

milligrams per cubic meter, which will substantially alleviate the

problem in the future.
     The problems of consuming coal relate to two different tech-

nologies:  direct combustion, or conversion  to  "clean" fuel.

     One fossil  fuel problem is common  to all technologies, has

been generally overlooked,  and may  be the worst environmental
danger of  all.   it  is  the long-term effect of build-up  of carbon

dioxide in the atmosphere,  which  is now calculated  fairly reliably

 to lead to a long-term warming  trend  via the "greenhouse" effect

 and quite  possibly  melting of  polar ice caps.   Mitchell4 estimates

 that the C02-driven warming will  exceed 0.6°C.  before A.D. 2000,

 possibly moderated by a cooling effect from particulate pollutants

  (itself not a comfortable prospect).   A global temperature rise of

  1-2°C. would almost certainly trigger a long-term global change,

  because sound meteorological theory predicts an amplification of

  the temperature rise at  high latitudes.

       (A)  Direct combustion.
       Burning coal  produces particulates, sulfur oxides,  and nitrogen

  oxides.   Precipitators can take out as much as 99.8% of the par-

  ticulates by weight, but fail to remove the very small  ones - small
  4   j  Murray Mitchell,  Jr.,  "A reassessment of atmospheric pol-
      lution as a cause of long-term changes of global temperature",
      in S.  F.  Singer (Ed.)  "The Changing Global Environment ,
      D. Reidel Publ. Co.  (1975).

-------
                                 16-20
 in weight and size but serious in health consequences; they can
 penetrate deep into the lungs, not filtered out by the body's
 natural mechanisms.
      About nitrogen oxides, we know relatively little, but public
 health authorities are becoming more worried about them as time
 goes on.  The sulfur oxides have been most intensively studied,
 but even here the data are inadequate.  About 60% of coal is burned
 in.electric power plants,  so about 60% of the health effects to be
 discussed can be attributed to electric power via coal.
      Air quality standards have been set on the basis of  sulfur
 dioxide concentration  - 80 micrograms/cubic meter,  but it now seems
 more  of a precursor to a worse offender.   The sulfur dioxide oxi-
 dizes in the atmosphere at a rate  that varies from  1% to  10% per
 hour,  depending  on  moisture content, presence of  fine particulates,
 presence of  metal vapors deposited on  the  particulates, and  so
 forth,  as  any introductory book on chemical  engineering would con-
 firm.   Thus  sulfuric acid  and  acid sulfates  travel  across  the
 country with  the prevailing wind,  until they  leave, generally over
 the Atlantic  Ocean, or  are  rained  out.
     Figure  3  shows the mortality  data used by The National Academy
 of Sciences in their recent study  of fossil fuels5, as worked up by
 The Environmental Protection Agency.  The  "Best Judgment" line
 implies almost total neglect of early data in London and Oslo, and
 forms the basis of the NAS and EPA mortality estimates.  Acid
5.   National Academy of Sciences "Air Quality and Stationary Source
    5Srt8™arcStf?75).PtePared ** ^ ^^ Coramittee on Public

-------
                                  16-21
  25
< 20
cc
o
V)  |
LU  '
O
X
kJ

H

g  10

ir
UJ
a.
O NEW YORK CITY, I960's

D LONDON , 1950's

A OSLO,  1960's
	• BEST JUDGEMENT

	MATHEMATICAL BEST FIT
                           A
                                               D
                  10     15     20     25

                     24-HOUR SUSPENDED SULFATES,
  Figure 3.   Percent excess  mortality expected on account of acid
              sulfates in  the air; from EPA data

-------
                                  16-22


  sulfate  levels  in Eastern U. S.  urban areas  are  16-19 micrograms/

  meter3,  apparently safe  if  the solid line of Fig.  3 applies  strictly,

  and  there is a  real  threshold at 25  micrograms per cubic meter, as

  shown.   But few would feel  satisfied to live so  close to danger,

  especially in view of the large uncertainties in  the data.  Using

  Fig. 3,  the EPA has estimated that if the 1980 acid sulfate  standards

  are all met, the excess mortality on that account would be very

  small -  in the  order of less than one death per power-plant-year.

 That number is  comparable to the nuclear-plant hazard.

      However,  if the 1975 air standards are not met,  or are sig-

 nificantly relaxed,  the numbers climb spectacularly:   about 4500

 deaths in 1980,  or  some 20  deaths per 1000 megawatt power plant.

 If the "mathematical best fit"  of Fig.  3 be assumed to apply instead,

 the 1980  deaths  jump to about 100 per plant,  from air  quality de-

 terioration  alone.   Such statistics  entirely  overwhelm the  nuclear

 risks of  every kind.  As one more example  of  environmental  risk,

 consider  expected chronic respiratory disease,  as it changes  with
                       in Fig. 4.
 suspended sulfate level./ Here, the  "judgmental"  and "mathematical"

 analyses  give very similar results;  the  predictions are  about

 6,000,000 cases  annually  in  1980, if  no  sulfur restrictions are

 applied,  down to undetectably few cases  if all regulations plus

 conservation are enforced.

      (B)   "Clean" fuels from Coal.


     Three main  categories of product can be envisaged:  low  unit

energy gas, high unit energy gas, or  a synthetic crude oil.  Lurgi

gasification and Fischer-Tropsch Liquefaction plants (both dating

basically from German World War II technology) are available now,

and a few Lurgi  plants are being built in the U. S. today.  The

-------
                                 16-23
         ONONSMOKERS
         D SMOKERS
                                      /  .NONSMOKERS
        	MATHEMATICAL BEST FIT    /
                                                  BASED ON STUDIES
                                                  IN FIVE AREAS PLUS
                                                  POOLED RESULT F.ROM ~
                                                  CHESS  PROGRAM
                                                  FOR  1970-1971.
                                                 40     45
                                               30     35
5      10      15     20      25
      ANNUAL AVERAGE SUSPENDED SULFATES , pq/m*
Figure 4.   Excess chronic  respiratory disease expected from acid
            sulfates; from  EPA data

-------
                                 16-24
 Wellman-Galusha, Koppers-Totzek and Winkler gasification processes
 are also commercially available, but not as popular as the Lurgi.
 Estimates exist that low energy fuel gas and liquid fuel would be
 attractive propositions to private industry with petroleum at
 $15.00/bbl (considering coal at $20.00/ton),  but that high energy
 pipeline gas  (i.e.,  methane)  would probably not.  However, all these
 schemes  are relatively expensive compared with burning coal au naturel,
 followed by stack  gas scrubbing.   Perhaps unfortunately,  the technical
 situation pertaining to possible health hazards from these processes
 can  be summed up easily:   knowledge is  fragmentary.   However,  some
 useful statements  can be made.
      -1-   Pertaining  to almost all technologies'and products.
           a.  The  plant leakage rates and the  characterization of
 those leakages  are not presently well understood,  but the  leakages
 can  be reduced  to  arbitrarily small amounts, by arbitrarily large
 expenditures of money.  Thus  no matter  what the end  product, oc-
 cupational  hazards of somewhat  indeterminate nature  exist.  The
 indeterminacy is compounded by  the  fact that coal  chemistry yields
 more polycyclic organic compounds;  they tend to be more biologically
 active than long chain hydrocarbons occurring  in natural petroleum.
 Thus about all  one can say at present is  that  synthetic fuel plants
will almost certainly be more expensive  to bring to  the same degree
of occupational and environmental safety as now pertains to petro-
leum refineries.
          b.  Nevertheless, data can be obtained, and we show below
a few examples,  as  illustrations of state-of-the-art.

-------
                                16-25

          c.   Many coal-based synthetic fuel processes  start with
a washing and pre-treatment heating (to prevent caking).   This
stage produces much dust, S02 and perhaps also NOx«   Thus control
of all these pollutants will probably be needed at these  pre-
treatment stages.
          d.  Many of these processes deal with coal fines, and
frothing agents used in their recovery are subject to release.
          e.  Particulate removal is not automatic in these syn-
thetic fuel processes; for instance, the Project Independence Task
Force Report on synthetic fuels makes no mention at all of those
in the respirable range, nor does it show knowledge of their
importance.
          f.  Tars and ash from most of these processes will  con-
tain sulfur and nitrogen which will remain unless those materials
are post-treated; and the tars and oils contain aromatic ring
compounds.
          g.  Water  in many  proposed  locations will be valuable
enough  for  cleaning  and  re-use;  but beware  of  buildup of heavy
metals,  etc.  Also,  the  substantial water releases themselves are
 a health hazard,  yet unmeasured.
          h.  Health effects must be  mainly inferred, because few
 are  measured directly.
      2.   Pertaining  mainly  to liquefaction  plants.
          a.   The only presently available  process  is  the Fischer-
 Tropsch, dating from World War II Germany.   If that  process is
 adopted extensively  soon,  very quick work will be needed to correct
 pollutant releases in present technology.   Regarding the products
 themselves, a small plant typically produces material in the following

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                                 16-26

 ratio:

                liquid fuel (high in aromatics)    5000  bbl/day

                various alcohols                    300     "

                higher organics,  creosote,  etc.     100     "

 The  precise  yield depends  upon the  process,  the  desired  yields,

 and  the  coal itself.   A Battelle (Columbus)  Laboratory Report6

 confirms that "...there is not much current  technology to review

 in this  area."   Table II from that  report  gives  a modest breakdown

 into types,  from a hypothetical  coal hydrogenation facility.  Note

 the  preponderance of  aromatic compounds  and  tars.

           b.  Synthetic liquid fuel is stated to run typically  0.02-

 0.5% sulfur, determined by regulations and economics.

           c.  The presence of more  polycyclic organics in the final

 product  (than in conventional petroleum) can be  overcome at ad-

 ditional refining cost,  but we do not presently  know the cost.

      3*   Pertaining mainly to gasification plants.

      Here  it is  necessary  to distinguish two main  categories:

           (1)  Low-BTU,  intended for use while still hot, on  site;

 and  (2)  high-BTU,  essentially methane  as a replacement for natural

 gas;   it  is not a  likely  candidate for  electric power provision.  A

 third category, intermediate-BTU gas,  is also attractive for  some

purposes.  It is made by a very similar process to low-BTU gas

 (discussed briefly below),  but using oxygen or oxygen-enriched air

instead of natural air in the gasification reaction.  Thus the

intermediate-BTU has  has the main difference  that it lacks the

6.  Liquefaction and  Chemical Refining of Coal:  A Battelle Energy
    Program Report, Battelle Columbus Laboratories, 505 King Ave
    Columbus, Ohio 43201; July 1974.  See especially page 59.

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                                16-27
large amount of nitrogen present in low-BTU gas;  as a consequence,
nitrogen-related pollutants are expected to be less, but we have
not studied the literature in detail to this point.
          a.  The low-BTU gas option is economically more attractive.
The sulfur appears as H2S, but there_is^t. present no satisfactory.
tmtjL.S removal process.  This is important because if the gas must
be cooled, much of the  attractiveness vanishes.  Thus sulfur is a
major problem; so also  are sludge and waste water.
          b.   H2S, once isolated, can be  effectively dealt with by
the  Glaus process, yielding  99.5-99.8%  elemental sulfur.
          c.   Because  of necessarily local use of  low unit  energy
gas  in  large installations,  the  health  and environmental problems
are  substantially  site-specific.
      The Environmental Protection Agency is publishing  a series of
 evaluations of the various gasification processes.
      One can conclude from this discussion that synthetic fuels can
 be made clean and by clean processes, but at still poorly determined
 cost.  This stands in  sharp contrast to  the problem of burning coal
 directly, where the cost can be low, but the environmental and health
 impact will be severe.  Data are woefully inadequate.

 VII.  Conclusion.
      The conclusion about coal  is  that without  strict controls on its
 use  (such  as  90% or better  removal of  sulfur oxides, and probably
 thorough treatment of  fine  particulates  and  sulfur oxides  also) ,  coal
  7.   For example,  H.  Shaw and E.  M.  Magee,  Evaluation of P^^i
      Control in Fuel  Conversion Processes-Gasification:   Section
      Lurgi Processes  EPA-650-12-74-009  c.  (July 1974).

-------
                                 16-28





 is environmentally much inferior to nuclear power.




      Each successive study made since the late 1960's has reinforced



 that general conclusion; yet the general perception persists that



 nuclear power is unsafe (of course, nothing is safe in any absolute



 sense); yet we find that burning fossil fuels, especially coal,



 without strict environmental controls is much worse; even



 more strange, people tend to shrug off these facts.




      Several reasons can be put forward to explain this peculiar



 response.   First,  the hazards of reactors and radiation were perceived



 as "unknown", and  hence very possibly large.   Second,  the public had



 come to accept the social cost of  polluted air,  not realizing (i)  that



 much could be done (until recently)  and (ii)  that its  perception of



 the fossil fuel  hazard was faulty.   But I think  a third reason  domi-



 nates:   over the past 20 or 30  years,  the federal government has in-



 vested  well over $1  billion attempting to measure the  public health



 costs associated with nuclear power,  and  until recently almost  nothing



 was done to measure  similar hazards  of fossil  fuel power -  in retro-



 spect,  a scandalous  omission.   Thus,  even with sometimes clumsy words



 and bad grace, a vast amount of literature appeared about nuclear



 hazards, providing material for a great public debate.   The  absence



 of  any  appreciable parallel assessment of  fossil  fuels  ensured  that



 the debate would be unbalanced,  and only now are  semiquantitative



 social  cost  figures starting to  appear.  The profound issue  can  hardly



 fail to be resolved in the  next  few years as more data  accumulate,



 especially on effects of fossil  fuels.  I conclude  from  the  evidence



 to  date that environmental  comparison favors nuclear power;  I believe



 that preference will apply  to the breeder reactor also, but with



substantially less  certainty about  the magnitude  of the preference.

-------
                         16-29
                    Table  I.
        Summary of health effects of civilian nuclear power, per 1000 Mw(e) plant-year (S).
                                  Fatalities
Activity
Uranium mining and milling
Fuel processing and reprocessing
Design and manufacture of reac-
tors, instruments, and so on
Reactor operation and maintenance
Waste disposal
Transport of nuclear fuel
Totals
Accidents
(not radiation-
related
0.173
0.048
0.040

0.037

O.OJ6
0.334
Radiation-
related
(cancers and
genetic)
0.001
0.040


0.107
0.0003
0.010
0.158
Total
0.174
0.088
0.040

0.144
0.0003
0.046
0.492
Injuries
(days off)
330.5
5.6
24.4"

158


518
After P. Walsh,  as quoted in D. J.  Rose  "Nuclear
Eclectic Power",  Science, Vol. 184,  pp.  351-359
(19  April,  1974).

-------

-------
                17-1
                                   FIRST DRAFT
      Appendix Paper No. 17
           Solar Energy*

                by

            B.C. Hottel
  Department of Chemical Engineering
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
         Cambridge, Mass.
  *The 1974 Institute Lecture of  the
   American Institute of Chemical En-
   gineers, presented at Washington,
   D.C., December 2,  1974.

-------
                                    17-2
       We tend to think the age of ecology has brought on the interest

 in the sun as an energy source.  Lectures on what the sun holds for

 mankind have been popular for at least a century.  I gave one to the

 Sigma Xi Society thirty-five years ago*, at which I referred to an

 unalterable tradition that had grown up, that every lecturer on solar

 energy must start with a hopefully new measure of its startling magni-

 tude.  In reverse,  and not new: the sun's mass radiates  energy from its

 surface so slowly that, if the radiation were suddenly turned inward

 by drawing some  sort of magic blanket over the sun and the  sun's  den-

 sity and heat capacity were for simplicity taken  as that  of  water,

 the resultant heating of the sun's mass through 100"C would  require

 half a century.   Nevertheless,  that minute fraction of the sun's

 radiation which  is  intercepted  by  the earth— which viewed from the  sun

 looks the size of a plum on a tree a quarter-mile  away—  is  of enor-

 mous magnitude.   One measure of it:  the U.S.  energy needs in  the year

 2000 AD,  ca.  200xlOls  Btu or_ KJ) could  be  supplied  by  utilization,

 with 10%  efficiency,  of  the  solar  flux  on  5%  of the U.S. land mass,

 or  on about one-half  acre  per man, woman,  and  child.

       Another  tradition  stands:  let  a scholarly air be lent to the

 presentation by a few historical references, with slides, preferably

 ancient.  Fig. 1  shows Lavoisier posing with an early solar concentrator;

 Fig.  2 shows a solar boiler  for a power-plant built by Mouchot in

 Paris  in  1878.  Mouchct and Pifre in France in the  '70's  and  '80's,

Adams  in  India and Ericsson in the U.S. at about the same time

 (Ericcson was the designer of the Monitor  of Civil War fame, and
 -———     —_      __

  Another measure of time: the price of fuel oil quoted in the lecture
  was  7c/gal.l

-------
                                 17-3
the builder of Stirling-cycle engines), Wlllsie in Needles, California,
Tellier in France, Shuman in Philadelphia - all around 1909, Shuman
in Egypt in 1913 (with Ackermann and the British physicist Boys), Charles
Greeley Abbot of the Smithsonian in the 20's and 30's, - all these men
spent much time and money, often their own, in the attempt at economi-
cally sound use of energy from the sun.  Some were scientists turned
engineer, some were engineers successful in an area unrelated to solar
research.  Were they dreamers; or were they on the right track but in
the wrong century or decade; or were  they .on the right problem but ill-
equipped to choose the best road to  a solution because of  the existing
state of knowledge?  The engineers and scientists and statesmen  of the
1970'6  are having difficulty deciding, and our nation is  committing
significant funds to improve our capacity to answer.  The two pressing
questions  today are how best to use  those funds, and whether they  should
grow or decline in relation  to funds for other  energy-related problems
pressing for  solution.
       To make a claim  to  fairness  in the assessment of  competing ideas
 for solar  energy  conversion  by devices not  yet  invented,  one needs
 clairvoyance. To assess  fairly  those that  have been  invented,  one must
 have read  all the original literature, have made many independent ana-
 lyses  and  numerical computations,  and pass on the validity of many cost
 analyses or,  in  some cases,- here cones ajrain t!ie need for  clairvovancn-
 Join i:v the <*ane-playing  knoxm as  projected-cost analysis when the
 device has never been tested or  even built,  or join in  the Delphic
 game of guessing whether a poorly established proportionality between
 unit cost and cumulative production  raised to a small negative power,

-------
                              17-4


 will hold through enough millions of  units  of  production to bring the

 cost down to  a  viable magnitude.   I haven't read  all  the literature;

 I have  made some  analyses and  some computations but not enough to

 satisfy even  myself;  and I am  no  expert  on  costing.   Any assessment

 of prospects  for  effective solar  energy  utilization will in consequence

 be highly subjective  and,  if I am frank, will  possibly offend more

 than a  few researchers.

      Conversion  of the  sun's  energy  flux to useful form will follow

 one  of  two paths:

      1.   The radiation  may be absorbed  at  a surface  and the resultant

           thermal energy used  for heat or power production.

      2.   The high thermodynamic  potential  associated with the sun's

           energy,  as  measured  by  one  of  its equivalent black-body

           temperatures (5762K  and 5612K  are two;  there are many others*)

           may be  exploited by  using the  photons in the solar beam to

           carry out acts consistent with their energy content; and of

           the solar energy capable of traversing  the ozone layer into

           the lower atmosphere, 80% is in photons of energy content

           exceeding one  electron  volt (or in radiation of wavelength

           less than 1.25$.
  5762K is the Stefan-Boltzmqnn temperature, that of a black body of solar
diameter  (0.009305 radians at the sun's mean distance from the earth's
orbit) which is capable of producing the measured solar constant of 1.353
KW/i.2.  5612K is the half-energy displacement-law temperature, that of a
black body half of whose radiation lies on either side of the wavelength
that equally divides the energy of the solar spectrum, measured external
to the earth's atmosphere.  That wavelength is 0.7318U.  Since 5612K is
lower than the Stefan-Boltzmann temperature, a "black-body" model calls for
either an effective solar diameter 5.4% greater than the true one or for
an emissivity of 1.11.  For non-thermal applications, 56]?K is the better
measure, but it should be combined with recognition that very little radia-
tion of wavelength less than 0.32 ~~" u penetrates the ozone layer and that
atmospheric absorption further modifies the spectrum.->
                                                     '"The spectrum itself,
modified by the air mass of interest, is of course the only true measure of
what a photon-using device sees.

-------
                             17-5


      All  schemes  in  the second  category are positively classifiable

 as long  range.   If man were  forced  to rely, starting  today, on solar

 energy as  a  heat and  power source,  all  his plants  and devices would fall

•in category  1.   It will be considered first.


                             Thermal Processes

       Before thermal  processes are  considered, it  is  desirable  to

 establish some feeling for the magnitude of  solar  flux as affected by

 season and latitude.   Among the many ways to present  such a story Fig.  3

 is perhaps as illuminating as any.   It  underlines  the difference between

 average days and clear days, which latter tend to  be uppermost  in the

 layman's mind when he considers the capture and use of the sun's energy.

 The latitudes where most of the industrialized nations lie are cross-

 hatched.  Space prevents presentation of the  enormous effect of micro-

 climate on  latitude-average values.
        Flat-plate  Collectors.   In anticipation, the flat-plate  collector

  is in the opinion of a dominant segment of  the solar research  fraternity

  and its federal sponsors that device most likely  to demonstrate first

  the significance of solar energy in the nation's  energy balance.  The
   sequence of presentation will be: principles of operation, ways to improve,

   achievements in  improving, examples of significance  of improvements,

   applications to  space heating and hot water  supply,  and tentative economics.

         The  flat-plate collector* is simply a  back-insulated radiation-absorb-

   ing surface warmed  by the  sun's rays  and, if the  desired  temperature

   Justifies  it,  '      X protected  against too rapid  loss of energy due  to

   back-radiation and "convection by  being covered with one or more solar-

   transparent  but  long-wave-opaque  layers of  glass or plastic.   Fig..  _4

   shows  several  designs.
   5~To~the~Iuthorfs knowledge  this  term was first  used in 1938 and first
     appeared in  print in 1942  (  i ).

-------
                                 17-6
      Flat-plate collector performance is given by the relation

                  qA  • $ • TO - U(T - Tft)                    (i)

where
      qA is the net absorbed flux density, from which the small back-side
         losses are to be subtracted to yield useful heat flux  per unit
         area.
      S  is the solar intensity measured in the plane of  the collector

-------
                                 17-7
     to is the effective product of transmittance  of  the  coverplates

        by the absorptance of the absorber plate

     T  is the mean temperature of the plate

     T  is the ambient temperature

     U* is the overall coefficient of upward loss from the blackened

        plate to the ambient air

     Division through by  S gives  the  collection efficiency qA/3.
             — -  TO -U(T-Ta)
      The deceptively simple appearance of Eq.  2 hides  the  subtly complex

problem of optimizing collector design.  Possibilities  of improvement

rest in to and U, the dependence of which on various parameters  is  indi-

cated in the following:
              TO  -  TO [n , .PgCe^,

                             for a fixed design,
              U   -  U[ S±Ta  , n, hw, hspacing, e, ec]
                   .  U[ ZlTa]  for a fixed design
                          2

 where
       n  - number of transparent cover plates

       D  - solar reflectance at a glass interface
        G  .           .   .
       6  - angle of incidence of sun on plate

       ^ - solar spectral-mean absorption coefficient of cover plates

       L  - path length of a solar beam through cover plates

-------
                                       17-8

        O  - absorptivity of blackened surface for solar radiation
        T  - transmittance of cover-plate system for solar radiation
        hw - wind-affected external convection coefficient
        hs - convection coefficient across spaces between plates
        C  - hemispherical emittance of blackened plate for low-temperature
             radiation
        eG - hemispherical emittance of glass  for low-temperature  radiation

        Study of  the  above indicates the  following possibilities of
  improving performance:
  1.     Increase n.   The higher the  collection temperature T, the larger the
        optimum n
  2.     Increase T by use of iron-free glass
  3.     Increase T by surface-treatment of the glass
 4.    Maximize a.  A value less than 0.9 is unacceptable.
 5.    Reduce hg by increasing the plate-spacing.  No gain beyond  about
       2 cm.
 6.    Reduce lig by inserting a thin-walled honeycomb structure between
       plates.
 7.    Reduce hg  by use of another gas  than air.
 8.    Reduce e.   Since e  and a are  related properties  of  the absorber
       plate, a special problem arises; see below
 9.     Reduce cQt  also  a special problem  because  of the relation of e,, to T.
                                                                    G
 10.    Eliminate internal convective contributions to U by evacuation.
      All but one of these principles have been applied; all but two
of them add cost to the collector.  A few deserve further conm»nt:

-------
                                   17-9
      3.   Lowering glass reflectance for solar energy by surface  treatment,

thereby increasing T.   When the collection temperature is high, as  in

application to air conditioning, process heating,  or possibly power pro-

duction,  the optimum number of plates may be three or higher.  Even with

iron-free glass used to minimize internal absorption, the system  solar

transmittance tray be as low as 0.68 unless the glass is surface-treated

to reduce the reflectance at a glass-air interface from 0.04 to 0.02.

This treatment consists in surface-leaching of Na20 out of the sodium

silicate by use of hydrofluosilic acid.  This production of a graded

change in refractive index, developed a generation ago, appears to be a

lost art, revivable if there is demand.  Other approaches, discussed

below, may be cheaper.  The Lof house in Denver (* ) used surface-treated

glass.

       A. and  8. Absorber selectivity.   The  importance of this exciting

idea,  considered  in the  '40's  and prematurely abandoned because the  then

available materials were not promising*, was  firmly  established by

Tabor's  work  in  the 50's  (3 ).  A surface with a monochromatic absorptivity

which is very high at  wavelengths below 2 microns  (spanning  the solar

spectrum) and very low at  longer wavelengths  (spanning  the  spectrum of

emitters at  temperatures  up to 700K)  will have a  solar  absorptivity a

which is high and a  low-temperature emissivity e  which  is  low.  An early

but not  cheap selective surface,  copper oxide on  bright aluminum,  had

 the then best selectivity, a  - 0.93,  e - 0.11,**  Presently available


 * Oxidized  zinc  had  a  low low-temperature emittancc, but at too  great a.
   sacrifice in solar  absorption.   Prof. L.  Harris at M.I.T.  had  found that
   he could  deposit by  evaporation in nitrogen a  thin layer of gold black
   which  exhibited hish infrared transmittance and high short-wave  absorption,
   but it had inadequate thermal stability (/ ).
 **o/e is not an adequate measure of selectivity.   Keeping a high is much
   more important for terrestrial applications than keeping e low.   A surface
   with a/c - 20 and ci - 0.8 is inferior to a gray surface with a - e « 0.95.

-------
                                   17-10
materials, such as a thin  layer of oxide of nickel or chromium on a


layer of bright metal on  a substrate chosen  for cost and thermal conduc-


tivity, are claimed to have a - 0.92, e - 0.06, or a » 0.93, e - 0.08  (5).


Fi£. £  , showing how thickness of the absorbing layer of oxide affects
the low-temperature emissivity and the solar absorptivity, illustrates
                                                        A

how important It is to control oxide thickness if an optimum combination

of a and e is to be achieved.  Structure of the absorbing layer is also

very important.


      9.  Combining low hemispherical emittance of glass with high solar


transmit tance.  This is alternative to — possibly complementary to — the


method just discussed.  Instead of making the absorber selective, the


cover glass may be made selective — highly transmissive to solar radiation


but highly reflective to long-wave radiation, with an accompanying re-


duction in the contribution of radiative loss to the overall heat-loss


coefficient U.  An electrical-conducting surface layer on the glass, such as

tin-doped indium oxide, imparts to glass a low-temperature emittance of

about 10% and a solar transmittance of about 85% (7 )..  The concept has

some advantages over absorber selectivity.


      Other improvements, particularly honeycombing and evacuation of the

space between plates, deserve attention.  Evacuation is feasible if the


"flat plate" becomes a row of parallel tubes inside which absorber strips


or tubes are placed.  Evacuation of flat-plate systems, with interior-post


supports, is not an impossibility (6  ).  A very high efficiency is claimed


for a selective-black tube lying on the axis of a larger evacuated


glass tube ( 9 ) .  The possible importance of honeycombs is in a state


of flux.  No more will be said here beyond the comment, quite unnecessary


to many readers, that the presence of water in the system undoes

-------
                                  17-11
the careful work of minimizing U by use of a honeycomb; vaporization




of water at the hotter surface and condensation at the cooler one guar-




antees existence of a built-in thermal leak of large magnitude.




     Two plots will show some of the effects discussed, and indicate




the range of performance to be expected from flat-plate collectors.




In connection with these results it may be said that the agreement




between well-designed experiment and rigorous use of the equivalent of




Eq. 1 has been so satisfactory that the claim of ability to predict




collector performance from the properties of its components combined




with established heat transfer relations is now well established




(except, perhaps, for the case of the honeycomb, which affects both




convection and radiative transfer in a way at present easier to measure




than to compute).



     Figure 6 compares the equilibrium or no-net-output temperature of




collectors of various designs, as affected by the intensity of incident




radiation.  Included are 1-and 2-glass.systems with a standard black




absorber, the bottom two curves; a two-glass system treated to produce




low solar reflectance; 1- and 2-glass systems using a highly selective




absorber; and a 1-glass evacuated system.  Clearly, if vacuum is used,




one glass suffices.



     Fig. ]_  shows the efficiency of four of the preceding systems, but




all for the rather high solar input of 300 Btu ft2 hr  (0.95 KW/M2).  The




figure shows the superiority of selective black and the absence of need




for more than one glass if the desired temperature is not too high.

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                                      17-12
           Table 1 compares the relative effects of using a selective black
     versus a selective glass cover (solar-transmitting infrared-reflecting
     on side facing black plate) versus evacuating the space between glass
     cover and absorber plate, for a one-glass collector exposed to solar
     inputs of 300 and 150 Btu/ft2hr (0.95 and 0.47 Kw/m2) and operating at
     150F and 300F (65 and 149 C).  From the table it is clear that choice
     between selectivity in the glass and selectivity in the absorber plate
                         since their
     would depend on cost(.respective contributions differ by only 3 points;
     and selectivity in both is not necessary.  The improvement due to evacua-
     tion is striking.
Table 1. Efficiency of 1-Glass Cover Flat-Plate Collector.
(Effect of Absorber Selectivity and /or Glass Selectivity and /or
Vacuum)
Plate Temp=300F
S-300 S=150
Btu/ft2hr Btu/ft2hr
Conventional Glass, Conventional Black, Air Space -
Conventional Glass, Selective Black, Air Space 0.31
Selective Glass, Conventional Black, Air Space 0.28
Selective Glass, Selective Black, Air Space 0.32
Conventional Glass, Conventional Black, Evacuated
Conventional Glass, Selective Black, Evacuated 0.70
Selective Glass, Conventional Black, Evacuated 0.67
Selective Glass, Selective Black, Evacuated 0.72
—
-
-
—
-
.56
.53
.65
Plate Temp=150F
S=300 S=150
Btu/ft2hr Btu/ft
0.55
0.70
0.67
0.67
0.63
0.81
0.78
0.78
0.24
0.56
0.53
0.54
0.40
0.78
0.75
0.76
Properties Used: Iron-free glass, transmittance for sun = 0.90, or 0.85 when made
selective; hemispherical ernittance « 0.91 and 0.1 on untreated and treated sides.
Absorber surface; solar absorptance (normal incidence) = 0.95 and 0.93 for con-
ventional and selective surfaces; hemispherical enittance « 0.88 and 0.1 for
conventional and selective surfaces.  Wind and interior-space convection coeffi-
cients = 4 and 0.16A5/"* (Eng. units). TO - 0.859, 0.843, 0.814, 0.799 for combi-
nation in sequence in Table.  Ambient temp = 70F  (21C).

-------
                                    1-M3
     The picture of performance is relatively simple until the weather



is introduced  .  Figure _8 is an assembly of diverse studies showing



the monthly performance to be expected versus collection temperature,



all for an ambient temperature of 70F (approximate correction to other



T4js is straightforward), for various collector designs in various




localities.  Included are winter-average values for vertical collectors



in three localities (notice the change from Boston to Blue Hill, only




15 miles away but 600 feet above sealevel, with atmospheric absorption



by water vapor significantly reduced); Cambridge values at two different



tilts of the collector; performance at Johannesburg and Phoenix; El




Paso, showing the effect of surface treatment of the glass to reduce



its reflection of sunlight.  The two figures chiefly underline the



variable character of collector performance and presage some of the prob-



lems of using the sun on a guaranteed basis of performance.  The same



investment produces different returns in different parts of the country;



the optimum design can be different for different intended uses of the

-------
                                 17-14


heat; microclimate, on which data are scarce, may cause large  differences

in performance for two installations for which the sun's path  through  the

sky is substantially identical.

     Space-Heating and Hot-Water Supply

     So many solar houses have been built that the safest way  not  to

appear unfair in omitting some is to focus on those with which there has

been close personal contact.  Fig. 9 shows the first M.I.T.  solar  house,

designed in 1938 and built in 1939-40.  It was built as an office  and

laboratory, not to be lived in, and the objective was to establish the

relations describing the performance of flat-plate collectors.  The
                                                    I    I   ;
enormous storage tank, capable of delivering summer sun to winter  use,

was carefully labeled uneconomic, related to the^control of experiments

and not to the cost of heating.

     Fig.10 shows the second or early post-war M.I.T. house, nothing

more than a row of thermally separated experimental cubicles to test

the concept of combining the collector and the storage unit in a single

south-wall element.  Predictive computations failed; the leakage of

heat to the outside at night in winter, despite the drawing of an alum-

inized shade between glass panes when the sun disappeared, was greater

than calculated, primarily because of air leakage associated with the

large pressure difference produced by two shade-separated eight-feet-

high slabs of air at greatly different temperature.  This, despite the

fact that  the shade moved vertically  in reasonably  tight grooves.

     Fig. .11  shows the  3rd M.I.T. Solar House, a remodeling  of No. 2

into acceptable living quarters  for a student family with one child.

About two-thirds of the  season's heating requirements were supplied by

the solar  system.

-------
                                    17-15
      Fl£. 12  shows M.I.T. House Four, the first one In the series which,
 starting at the design stage, was intended for conventional use as a
 home.  Three years' performance data were taken. (640 sq.ft.collector,
 living area 1450, 60° tilt)
      The experience with this series of houses established the following
 general principles of space heating with solar energy:
      1.  Quantitative relations available for prediction of performance
 of collectors of almost any design are entirely trustworthy if the pro-
 perties of the components are known.  But this means knowing the internal
 absorption coefficient of the glass or plastic; the reflectivity for
 solar energy of the glass-air or plastic-air  interface,  expressed  as  a
 function of angle of incidence (calculable from the Fresnel equations if
 the refractive index is known);  the transmittance of the cover plates
 jfor low-temperature radiation (zero for glass;  plastics  have some  spectral
 windows);  the  hemispherical emittance  of  the  cover  plates;  etc.
      2.   Year-by-year  variation  in  solar  weather at a single locality
 can produce  a  15% variation in performance from year to  year.
      3.   The optimum tilt  of  collector surface  is 15* to 20° more  than
 the latitude.
      4.  The optimum water  flow  rate is within  25%  of 8  pounds per
 sq.  ft. of collector per hour  (40 kg/m2hr).
      5.  The provision of more than  24 hours  of heat storage is unwarranted.
     Fig.  13  illustrates the  problem  of  choice of  fractional heating  load
to be carried by the sun.  Across the plot runs a curve  labeled"2-pane
collector performance" which,  because the collector  is tilted toward the
equator, varies from month to month  in a way reasonably favorable to

-------
                                 17-16

 the winter heating season.  This curve represents expected performance


 per unit area of collector.  A second curve marked "house heating and


 domestic water load" is proportional to,  not equal to that load.   Two


 values of the proportionality constant - having the dimensions  of re-


 ciprocal area - are used in plotting.  The first one permits  the  collector


 to satisfy the load in January, leaving an enormous amount of collectible


 but non-usable energy for all other months.  A second curve,  dotted,


 corresponds to a proportionality constant 1.6 or I/.645 times the first


 one.  This corresponds to a collector area 64.5% of that required to


 handle the January load, resulting in the need for some auxiliary heat


 from November to March but involving the  discard of much less collectible


 heat in other months.  Quantitative interpretation of such plots, permit-


 ting a balance of fuel saved versus fixed charges on the investment  in


 collector surface, leads to the firm conclusion that in almost  no part


 of the U.S. where heating is a problem can one afford a complete  solar


 heating system.  A collector system with  an acceptable load factor can-


 not handle winter peaks.  The moment an auxiliary heating system  is put


 in, one stops worrying about more  than 24 hours of solar heat storage.


 Two dull days in a row happen infrequently enough to cause half of a


 two-day storage system to operate  at too  low a load factor to justify


 it.


      What is the future of space-heating  and water-heating?  The  load


 factor for the latter is clearly much better than for house-heating.


 There are many parts of the country where an annual collection  of 12,000


 Btu/sq.ft. collector surface per month is feasible.   If there is  year-


 round need, the 144,000 Btu collected-and-used in a year is the approx-


 imate equivalent of 1.4 gallons of fuel oil burned at 70% efficiency.

*~~~                ~
 And somewhere a significantly higher figure is applicable. The calculated
 perforrcnncc in March 21 in Colorado on a clear day corresponds  to twice  the
 above figure (10); more significant is the average for the heating season.

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                                    17-17

If a value of 60c is put on that heat and capitalized at 10%, $6 is


available per sq.ft. of collector and associated system.  If space-heating


is considered, a moderately under-designed collector receives only


about 5 months of full use, two of half use, and 5 of perhaps one-third


use (for hot water).  The value of the heat collected, on the preceding
basis, has dropped to 38$.  For comparison with this oversimplified esti-
                        A

mate, an updating of the value of heat collected in one season in M.I.T.


Solar House 4, to take account of present fuel prices,  yields a figure


of 50c/to/£


     Though $5/ft2 won't begin to buy and install the collector, insulated


storage tank, pump, piping and controls, such factors as the possibility


of improvement in collectors to the point where their energy can be used


for summer air-conditioning, the possibility of fuel costs rising faster


than steel, glass, and labor, and the existence of significant areas of


the country where the monthly average performance is higher than the


figure used above, all make the use of the flat -plate collector for space-


heating well worth encouraging.


     The federal government is now in process of stimulating the growth


of a solar-collector and solar-heating industry, through demonstration


projects on public buildings.  The hope is that as space and water-heating


begin to prove economically sound the cost of collectors will come down


as a result of volume production.  Present costs vary enormously, and


there is no correlation between cost and performance.  High technical


talent is required to design a good system and to decide whether a parti-


cular solar climate Justifies installation of solar heating; and the


gullible public is going to be in need of protection against promoters


making unrealistic claims of performance and savings.

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                                 17-18
     Space heating represents somewhere around 18% of our national




energy budget.  If 10% of the nation's homes were partially solar




heated by 1990 - and those would have to be new homes; retrofitting




is generally too expensive - and those homes were two-thirds supplied




with solar heat, the reduction in our conventional energy consumption




would be 1.2        percent.  But it would be well worth doing.   And




if improved collectors can deliver heat at higher temperatures,  in-




dustrial process heat represents an additional market.




     Thermal Power from the Sun




     A thermal power plant design which has been brought to a stage




where tentative assessment is possible i3 the east-west cylindrical




parabola with north-south diurnal tracking, with a steam-generating




tube at its focus.  This concept was originally tried in Eqypt by




Shuraan in 1913.  A study by Aerospace (^) indicates the possibility




of a collector and transport efficiency of 45%, a loss in thermal




short-time storage of 2%, and a turbogenerator efficiency of 30%,




giving an overall conversion, sunlight to power, of. 13.2%.  The total



insolation on the aperture of the parabolas is estimated to average



72% of normal incidence because of unfavorable morning and afternoon




angles.  Three different power-plant designs, baseload, intermediate




load, and peaking plant, were analyzed.  The cost of the solar baseload




plant at the year of commercial operation, in 1990 dollars, was esti-




mated at S2385/KW compared to $572 and $528 for nuclear and coal plants




in the same year.  Baseload power from the solar plant would cost




38 mills, from the others, 18 to 26 mills.  When it is remembered that

-------
                                    17-19






peaking power is justifiably more expensive than base-load power, and




that peaking loads of power grids come in the daylight hours not too




far removed from the hours of best solar-plant performance, it is clear




that if a few hours*    thermal storage for the solar plant is not too




expensive, use of the solar plant to supply the peaking load might be




attractive.  The optimum peaking power solar plant, with 3 hours thermal




storage capacity and with reflectors covering 15 Km2 is estimated to




produce, in 1991, peaking power for 112 mills/KWH, whereas nuclear,




coal, and combined-cycle plants will lie in the range 85 to 115 mills.




     Now comes the qualification on these cost comparisons.  Collector




costs were assumed $25/square meter, or $2.32/ft.2.  I have always




believed that guided systems, structured to move and withstand wind




loadings, and provided with good-quality reflecting surfaces, will cost




several times as much as stationary non-focusing plate systems.  I




can't believe the cost estimate is realistic.



     A thermal power plant receiving much attention these days is the




tower power plant.  Fig. lA/''2) illustrates such a plant.  Somewhat




south of the center of a field of thousands of heliostats is a 1500 foot




high tower with a steam boiler on the top and a turbine-generator at




its base.  Each heliostat is a flat hexagonal reflector 15 feet across,




tracking the sun and reflecting the flat-mirror spot together with its




penumbra due to solar diameter and mirror imperfections onto the central




receiver on the tower.  It is simplest, for visualization, to consider




those haliostats lying on that ground line through the tower base which




is in the plane of the sun and the tower.  A little consideration will




indicate that heliostats which are too close together will shade their




neighbor when the altitude ct of the receiver viewed from a heliostat




exceeds the solar altitude Y«  And when the sun is higher in the sky

-------
                                  17-20



than the receiver, some of the radiation will be blocked by a neighbor



heliostat on its way to the tower.  If the heliostats occupy a small



enough fraction C,, of the ground they occupy, however, they will not



shade or block one another.  With Cy representing the local ground



utilization factor — the ratio of useful interception to that which



the associated ground could intercept if normal to the solaj: beam --



the above considerations are summarized in the statement




                                                         Y-Ct
                   C_, « least of sin Yf sin a, or Ct, cos -^-r—
                    U                              n      / •




where (y-oO/2 is the angle of incidence of the sun on the heliostat



surface.  Unless the third of these terms is the smallest most of the



time, a heliostat will be accounting for less energy transfer than



is consistent with its size.  Consequently, the heliostats, representing



about 80% of the total plant cost, must not have an area more than



0.3 to 0.4 of the ground area with which they are associated; they



will vary in spacing in dependence on the part of the field they



occupy, and differ from one another in their contribution to U ,



the field-average value of C...  The total flux-uncorrected for losses —



onto the receiver from a field of heliostats of total ground area AG



will be (f,TA_I_, where I_ is the direct or normal-to-receiver intensity
         U G D         D


of solar flux.



     A flux concentration factor C  at the receiver of about 1000 is
                                  r


proposed.  C_ is the ratio of flux density on the receiver to that on



level ground.  It is related to the geometrical concentration factor



C , the ratio of total heliostat area A^ to receiver area A^.  The



fairly obvious relations are

-------
                                   17-21
                   CG
                       -  total ground area of field of heliostats
                   D.  «  heliostat image diameter


                       -  D  + (.0093 + 20) S
                           tn

                   D   »  heliostat mirror diameter
                    m

                   a   «  a shape factor, about 3

                   Of   «  pointing error of heliostats  + mirror-flatness
                          error

                   S   »  maximum slant range,  heliostats to receiver
                          on tower

                   c   -  SL_  AU.  SL_   i.
                    F     sin Y   A£  '    sin Y   CH '

                   TI   »  reflection and absorption efficiency of
-                          mirror and receiver

                                             2
     The term a in the expression A^ - a(ir/4)D. deserves  comment, for

historical reasons.  The area A^ of the receiver should be as small as

is consistent with intercepting all heliostat beams, and  the limiting

Images come from those heliostats located on the rim of the field.  If

the receiver were spherical, "a" would be 4.   But it may  be shown

(see Fig. 15, bottom figure) that A_ is smaller if the  sphere is

replaced by a segment of a sphere surmounted by an inverted truncated

cone tangent to the sphere.  In the present example V is  about 3.3*.

The two-dimensional equivalent of this shape was first  suggested by

the British physicist Boys for use in Shuman's  African  experiment ( /J) .
* Exactly, a - 2(1+ sin 6)  - cos  9, where  0  is  the half-angle subtended
  by the field rim at the  receiver.                             ^"

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                                      17-22
     Collected and concentrated solar energy has a fuel-equivalent value,

and a cost comparison of the above-described tower plant has been made  on  this

basis (/2), with omission of consideration of the remainder of the tower plant.

It is concluded, on the assumption that coal will cost $23/ton at the half-

life of the solar plant, that the two sources of energy will at that point in

time be competitive.  Since almost the whole cost of concentrating solar energy

at a tower receiver is the fixed charge on capital and since the capital cost

is composed 80% of heliostats, the cost of heliostats is of interest.   Before

that is given, a heliostat will be described in more detail.  It is  set on a

concrete foundation to guarantee accuracy in pointing control.  To allow tracking
                              a horizontal
of the sun it is provided with bearing and a second bearing at right  angles to

the first.  Quarter-inch back-silvered flat glass is mounted on a hexagonal steel

channel-beam frame with six spokes to a center plate.  Two guidance  systems are

provided for each heliostat, one open-loop system to point it within 50 r.illi-

radians of the sun's center, and a second closed-loop system to seek the solar

center within 2 milliradians  (the sun's diameter is 9.3 milliradians).   The whole
                          2           9  of  reflectin£ surface,
system contains about 20 m  or 200 ft. /.and the estimate'on cost that makes

tower power interesting is $2.50 to $3.50 per square  foot, or $500  to $700 for a

complete heliostat with foundation, guidance systems, motors and gears!
                                 .M
     Another tower power study (  )   is based on the concept of dividing  the

total plant — in the present study a 100 Mwe plant to be  located in central Arizons-

into eight sub-fields, each with its own 300-to 400-foot  tower supplying steam
  ^V                                                              . •
to the system center where the turbine is located.

-------
                                       17-23
The eight sub-fields are terraced to improve the heliostat shading-blocking


problem.  Each heliostat, 20 by 20 feet, consists of 16 five-by-five foot


back-silvered flat glass plates, each distorted by edge-and-center con-

       into                                        '                  ,    ,
straint.an approximately spherical segment to reduce the necessary size of


the receiver, which is a black-body aperture inside which the heat-transfer


tubes are placed.  For a 100 Mwe plant capable of delivering rated output


for about ten hours per dav, 14720 individual heliostats are required, of area


equal to 38% of the ground  area they occupy,eight 45-acre sub-fields.  The


thermal collection efficiency— the ratio of absorbed energy at the receiver


to direct solar incidence on the heliostats if they were all normal to the


solar beam — is estimated to be 60.6%.  This allows 0.84 for the mean value


of the cosine of the angle of incidence of the sun on the heliostats, 0.85


for mirror reflectivity, 0.96 for optical accuracy and 0.925, 0.96, and 0.995


for reduction by convection losses, reflection losses, and insulation losses


at the receiver.  The turbine-generator efficiency is taken as 0.35.  The mean

                                                               2         2
direct solar flux density for ten hours is taken as 0.86 KwTh/m   (80 w/ft ), a


figure supported by weather studies.


     What appears to the present author to be a realistic economic analysis,


in January 1974 dollars, of power costs from a 100 Mwe plant is in process; it


produces the following figures:  Land is purchased for $700/acre.  Common to


the solar plant and a fossil-fuel plant is a capital cost of $15.5 M. The


additional fossil plant capital cost is $1.9 M (AEC and FPC reports of 1972


and 1973, corrected to 1974 dollars, support the fossil-fuel total of $17.4 M.).

-------
                                   17-24



The additional solar plant capital cost is $16.7 M exclusive of boilers,



superheaters, heliostats and their controls. The mentioned items are in



process of being estimated; preliminary cost estimates for heliostats and



their tracking controls and gear are $30 M to $40 M ($5.10 to $6.80/ft .).



Fuel cost for the fossil plant is put at $1.7 M, which corresponds to



30C/M Btu and a load factor of 0.73.  Estimated operating costs of the two



plants, ex-fuel, are comparable, $254,000 and $288,000 for the solar and



fossil plants, respectively. Here  the analysis ends.  To obtain a tenta-



tive estimate of costs let the solar boiler and superheater costs be



taken as $1.9M and let a fixed charge of 15 percent be used.  The fossil



plant with a load factor of 0.73 will produce power at 7.2 mills/kwh



(fuel 2.66, operation 0.45, fixed charge 4.08) and the solar plant operating



ten hours a day will produce power at 27 to 31 mills/kwh (operation 0.70,



fixed charge 26.3 to 30.4).  One may question the estimated heliostat and



boiler costs and the value used for fixed charge, but the analysis serves



as a basis for tentative judgement.  It indicates that the projected solar



plant cannot be considered competitive with fossil fuel plants until 'the



major solar-plant cost—heliostats—is capable of reduction to one-half


                                                2
its already very crptimistic minimum of $5.10/ft.  and^sircultaneotisly,



fossil fuel costs increase six-fold.



     It is difficult to see how thermal solar power will have any interest



until coal and fuel from oil shale cost many times their present cost,



and until uranium costs many, many times its present one.  Research on



thermal power, small-scale low-cost effort that gives ideas a chance to



emerge, is justified.  Detailed study of the receiver for a tower power




                                                               X

-------
                                       17-25


plant, the clogging of offices with the accumulated results of computer

programs which superimpose a thousand image details from a thousand helio-

stats onto a receiver to see if tube number 4371 will burn out — that

is like designing the doorknobs for a house to be built in a swamp before

the house foundation details have been worked out.  Studies of how to design

the minimum-cost heliostat deserve to continue.

     No mention has been made of thermal power plants based on the flat-

plate collector.  The relatively low temperature at which solar energy can

be collected efficiently and  particularly  the cost of movement,to a

central point,of fluid carrying energy which has been collected over a

large area combine to make flat-plate thermal plants even less attractive

than optical concentrating systems.  A continuing improvement in the flat-

plate collector for use in process-heat supply could slowly change this

conclusion.

       Miscellaneous Concentrators

       Among the many suggestions for supply of energy at temperature

levels intermediate between those required for space heating and for

power production, a few examples will be presented.

       Fig. 15, upper center, illustrates an intriguing way of concentrating

solar energy without forming an image (' ).  All sunlight entering aperture

AB at any angle lying within angle AOB will impinge on surface CD, either

directly or by reflection from parabolic surfaces AC and BD,whose foci are

at D and C, respectively.

       Let the ratio AB/cF be designated by C(for a two-dimensional system

the concentration is C, for a figure of revolution about the central axis
                                                                  -i
it is C2).  It may be shown that the half-gathering angle 8 is sin   (1/C)

-------
                                 17-26







and that the system depth is the aperture A& times  Vc2-l(l+l/C)/2.




The disadvantage of this system over an image-forming parabola of




aperture AB is its significantly greater reflecting surface.  For a




two-dimensional system three apertures deep, the concentration ratio




is 5.1 and the half-angle 6 is 11.2°.




      Fig.  15, upper left, illustrates a concentrating system being




tried for house heating^ J£A concave-outwards spherical reflecting segment




of roughly 30" included angle is used as a house roof, directly facing




the sun at noon on the winter solstice.  At that time an image of the




sun is formed at one-half the radius of curvature of the reflector.




As the sun moves away from that position the image also moves, and




becomes increasingly distorted.  The moving receiver must in consequence




be much larger than the undistorted solar image.  If the receiver is




large enough and moves on the surface of an imaginary sphere the center




of which is on a centrally located position about 0.22 reflector-radii




out from the reflector surface and the radius of which is about 0.28




reflector-radii, the reflected radiation will be intercepted.  At the




winter solstice the sun moves 45° off-axis in 3 1/2 hours from noon.  At




the equinox at noon it is 23 1/2° off-axis and moves to 45° in 2 1/4 hours,




At 45° the image is so badly distorted that the ratio of reflector aper-




ture to receiver area is down to about 3.4; when the cosine of the angle




of the sun with the normal to the reflector aperture is introduced ,




the number changes to 2.4.  Whether the value of the concentration



achieved will offset the cost of piping and controls to allow motion of




the receiver has not been established.

-------
                                   17-27
     Fig.  16 is a cross-section through a two-dimensional system of




flat strip mirrors located on a circle and set to superimpose their light




strips on the opposite side of the circle when the sun is in their plane




of symmetry (in contrast to a curved circular mirror which would form




a solar image at the half radius of the circle) ( '7).  It is easy to




demonstrate that, as the sun moves away from its central position, the




locus of the point of superimposition of the strips of sunlight forned




by the mirrors moves on the circle.  Consequently, a receiver arranged




to move on the circle will continue to intercept  the light strips.




There are problems of mutual  shading and blocking of strips, and of sig-




nificant  loss  of  entering aperture as  the  sun  moves  from its noon position,




but  the device may have merit.



      '  •               Non-Thermal  Solar  Conversion




      The  clever  way  to  use  the sun's  energy would be to  make direct




 use of  its high energy  photons.   Nature does this in the photosynthesis




 of food and fuel in  plant leaves, but man has so far had little success




 imitating Nature.  Other approaches are feasible, however.   The creation




 of hole-electron pairs  by the absorption of light quanta of 1 to 2




 electron volts and the separation of the holes and  electrons at an inter-




 face between materials having a mismatch of chemical potential —



 achieved at a p-n junction in photovoltaic cells and at a solid-liquid




 interface in photogalvanic cells -- has been  used to produce an electric




 current.  Hydrogen and oxygen have been made  in  minute  quantities at




 minute energy efficiency by  photoelectrolysis.   These areas deserve the




 low-cost research support necessary  to increase  our understanding of

-------
                                 17-28
 the phenomena involved and, hopefully, to lead to their economic ex-




 ploitation.  Only one of them is far enough advanced to justify further



 comment here.




      Photovoltaic Cells.   One of the most intriguing ways to use the sun




 is the generation of power by photovoltaic cells, of which the silicon




 cell is the most promising.  Developed by Bell Laboratories in the early




 50's and improved continuously by research stimulated by our space




 program, silicon cells can deliver power at  efficiencies up to 15.5% in




 outer space applications  (the theoretical maximum is 22%)  and  up to 19%




 in terrestrial  applications at air mass 2 (the higher terrestrial perfor-




 mance is due to  the  earth's atmosphere having  absorbed portions  of the




 solar spectrum not usable  by the  cell).   Commercially available  cells for




 terrestrial use  have efficiencies  of  13 to 14%.   Minimization  of cost  was




 not  a prime objective in the space program.  Current  prices  for  assembled




 arrays are  of the order of  $100 per peak  watt  or  $1000/ft.2.  Cell  life-




 time  is  expected to  exceed  20  years.   Clearly  these  costs are more  than




 two  orders  of magnitude greater than  the  capital  investment  for  commercial



 power  generation.




     One method  for  reducing the high  cost of  cells is by concentrating




 the solar energy incident on them.  Because cell  efficiency  drops with




 increased temperature, only  moderate concentrations  (up to 5) are




 feasible without forced cooling.  The Russians, however, have used con-




 centration  exceeding  1000 with water cooling; the following of this road




would  introduce  all  the complexities and costs associated with sun-




 tracking (see thermal power, above).   ;

-------
                                     17-29
     Experts in the photovoltaic area disagree as to the prospects of cost

reduction.  One game that is played is to plot cost per watt on a log scale

vs cumulative production on a log scale.  Data extend now to 8000 square

meters of total production.  A straight-line extension to 20 million square

meters of accumulated production brings the cost to $500/KW, estimated by

the extrapolator to occur in 25 years.
     Other candidate materials are available for photovoltaic cells, some

better and much more expensive, some cheaper and not so good.  CdS-CuS has

the merit of being usable in fine-crystalline form on a film.  Its efficiency

is about  4%.
                                          *
     Many proposals  for  research  on  lowering production costs have been

made,  and though  the view of what will happen is dim,  it  appears  appropriate

 to continue supporting the  effort; the end-product is  so  nearly  ideal.

                                Conclusion

      Solar energy is only  one  of  many promising areas  for energy research.

 To label a"solar process prematurely as being ready to move from research

 to development is to increase  the rate of expenditure of  funds and  to slight

 some more worthy non-solar areas.  The supply of low-temperature heat is

 close enough to being economically sound to justify limited stimulation

 through incentives.  The temptation to build a thermal solar power plant is
 high.  I cannot now see that it would accomplish anything except the expendi-

 ture of funds.  The future may bring a need for solar power.  But if the
 future is to find us with the economic strength to support solar development,

 we must  solve some  of many more  pressing energy problems of this decade.

                              Acknowledgement

      The author wishes  to  acknowledge the  debt he owes the memory of Godfrey

 L. Cabot, whose  Solar Fund at  M.I.T.  supplied  partial support through many

 years  of research on  how more  effectively  to use  the  sun's energy.   That Dr.

 Cabot  had  vision and  no illusions about  the  difficulty of  the problem  is

 measured by the conditions of  his grant  of 1938 covering a fifty year

 research program.

-------
                                     17-30

                                    BIBLIOGRAPHY
                                                  'S-M-E"  «*• PP.  91-104


   2.    Lof  G.O.G.,  El Wakil, M.M., and  Chiou,  J.P.,
                                                                        on
                                                                      5,



                              * cSuncli of Israel> ^' No- 2~3 <1956>; a**
            Vo   II  pt  r\°n U!6 °^ S°lar En' * The Scientific Bails,
            Vol. II, Pt. I, Sec. A, Chaps. 2+3  (1956).

   4.    Harris, L., Jl. Opt. Soc. Am., 38, 582(1948); ibid., 42, 134 (1952)

   5.    Rai"sey  James, Honeywell Corp. Systems + Res. Ctr., at  NSF/RANN
            Workshop on Solar Collectors, N.Y., Nov.  21,  1974.    °r/KA™
                                   A<^ J1'  °f
                                   *  du centre Nat-  de la
   7.     Lincoln Laboratory,  M.I.T.  Private Communication


   8.     Blum, H.A.  et al. , Paper  E18, Paris International Congress on the
           Sun  in the Service  of  Mankind,  July,  1973.

   9.     Private  Commun. from Owens-Illinois Glass Co.
'  U*   AersionCMiC°  Solar Thern«l Power Systems Based
              Optical Transmission, Feb.  15, 1974.

  13.    Ackerman,  A.S.E.,  Jl.  of the Roy.  Soc.  of Arts,  63,  538 (1914-15)

  ""    Marpolra^%tta CT;'  Semi-annual Fr°S-  R^Pt.  No.  1 to NSF/RANN,  "Solar
          Power System and Component Research  Program," July,  1974

  15.    Winston, R. ,  "The  Argonne-Design Parabolic Collector,"  pres   at
          NSF/RANN Workshop on Solar Collectors,  N.Y..  Nov! 21^1974?

  16.    Barr.E.,  R.A.I. Corp.,  "Cost-Effective Focusing  Collector for

                                     '          workshop  °
 17.   Williams, J.R., Georgia Inst. of Tech., "Experimental Solar Heat
          Supply System with Fixed Mirror Concentrators, NSF/RANN Workshop on
          Solar Collectors, New York, N.Y., Nov. 21, 1974.

-------
                                 17-31

                         Figures


Fig.  1   View of Lavoisier's Apparatus

Fig.  2   Mouchot's Multiple Tube Sun-Heat Absorber of 1878

Fig.  3   Solar Incidence on a Horizontal Surface.  Effect of
           Latitude and Season.

Fig.  4   Four Flat-Plate Collector Designs

Fig.  5   The Solar Absorptivity and Low-Temperature Emissivity of
           a Layer of Copper Oxide on Aluminum, as Affected by
           Layer-Thickness.

Fig.  6   Equilibrium Temperature of No-net-output Collectors

Fig.  7   Efficiency of Solar Collectors of Different Desipn, as
           Affected by Collection Temperature.   (Solar incidence
           constant at 300  Btu/ft2hr, or 0.95 KW/tn )

Fig.  8   Collector Performance at Various Stations over  the Earth  -
           Effects of Tilt, Number of Panes, Glass Surface Treatment,
           Time of Year.

Fig.  9   The First M.I.T.  Solar House, Cambridge, Mass., 1939.

Fig.  10   Second  M.I.T.  Solar House

Fig.  11   Third M.I.T. Solar House,  Cambridge,  1949

Fig.  12   M.I.T.  Solar House 4, Lexington, Mass., 1956

Fig.  13   Relation of Heating  Load  to  Solar  Incidence and Available
            Energy (for  a house located  in Blue  Hill, Mass.)
                              f2
Fig.  14   Tower  Power Plant (   )

Fig.  15    Bottom, Special Receiver  Shape  for Rim Heliostats  of  Tower
            Power Plant;  Top Center,  Non-image-forminj>  Concentrator;
            Top Left,  Stationary Roof and  Moving Receiver, Proposed for
            House-heating       ^

 Fig.  16    Non-moving Flat-stripmirror Collector, Superimposing  Images
            at a Locus  Moving on a Circle.

-------
                                   17-32
                                                                            s   i
              Figure i.  View of Lavoisier's apparatus

rjyk-X $r// /$

*-J




* 	 .-,, .. ,. ., »_.^x*--»H*riaw3Pl
Figure 2,  MOUCHOT'S MULTIPLE TUBE SUN-HEAT ABSORBER OF 1878.

-------
                                                     17-33
                  SOLAR  ENERGY
                       e\n A
                                                                                £•  INSULATION  .::--'
                                                                                •*

                                                     f "*f"«-J^MrftVfrV.TWl 1<1?U-C»t^Cv'i
                                                     ff3y>^^g&igjg&^a^
lotitude and
                                                                         .^. Four type, of Oat-pla.. collector,.
                                                                                Figure  6
                              WOMl/MEA Cf CUPRIC 0»IOE
                                         o«    **
     uwlcr optimum c<-

-------
                       17-34
  40
  30
 20
                       THE EFFICIENCY OF A  SOLAR
                       ENERGY COLLECTOR  vs THE
                         TEMPERATURE OF  THE
                           ABSORBER PLATE.
                       	EMISSIVITY.. 35 •*> » ABSORPTIVITY- OS %
                       	 E.MISSIVPTY. I0-/o ASSORPTIVTTYtt B2«rf.
        \\ ^
>       \  \
u        \  \
I        \\
K           \    \

s           \\
NORMAL INCIDENCE.  \       \
SOLAR INTENSITV -.  \      \
      300 BTU/PT*Hr V      \
                                         Figure  7
                       »l GLASS
                        PV.A.TE
                          \=
                                   t OLAS3
                                              >
                                              PUATHS
      1OO
              150
                     2OO
                       TEMPERATURE OF COLLECTOR
                         25O     soo     :v^a
25000
             COLLECTION  TEMPERATURE ,°C.
                    60
                         100
                              120
                                   MO
                                       160
                                            	40000
                                  EL PASO, TEX
                                    LAT. 32°
                                   TILT- LAT
                                 \\SURF-TREATED
                                     PHOENIX
                                    LAT
                                     SURFACE-
                                     TREATED
                                      GLASS
                               2-GLA5S PANE
                               SYSTEMS EXCEPT
                               AS SPECIFIED
                                            	60000
                                           0000
                                              Z
                                              O.
                                              2
                                              QL
                                              u
                                              £L
                                                i\j
                                                2
                                                •^
                                                _)
                                                <
                                                U
                                                ^
  50


. Collator
      100      '40     200     250     300
        COLLECTION TEMPERATURE °F
     o,ce c, ,o,,oU, ,,0-ion, ov;, ,„. ,orlh-.ff«,, o, „	b.f o( po
                                          3iO
                                                 Figure 8

-------
                      >  ! 'i

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-------
                                     17-38
                          /»     TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                          (Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
  EPA-600/2-76-044b
                           2.
                                                      3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Energy Supply, Demand/Need, and
 the Gaps Between; Volume TJ—Monographs and
 Working Papers
        6. REPORT DATE
        March 1976
        6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
 /.AUTHOR^  j w.Meyer, W.J.Jones, and M.M.Kessler
 energy Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Tech-
 .nology. Cambridge r MA
 ). PER FORK/11 Nfi n£J1AMI7AT*H"^M KIAftJl
       3. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO
        MIT-EL 75-012/-013
 The M.W. Kellogg Co.
 1300 Three Greenway Plaza
 Houston,  Texas  77046
                       ME AND ADDRESS
                                                      1O. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
        1AB013; ROAP 21ADE-010
        j ' ^*Xfci•*-.-. A ^.— ir*.~. M ...IIT'J . !!. '   " '   •'•"
        11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO

        68-02-1308, Task 27
            AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
 EPA, Office of Research and Development
 Industrial Environmental Research Laboratory
 Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
        13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
        Task Final; Through 12/74
       14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
        EPA-ORD
                   .. * wj^.. officer Jefcoat is
 J.O.Smith, Mail Drop 60,  Ext 2921.
longer with EPA; for details contact
          The report summarizes a critical review of selected literature pertaining
 to energy supply, demand, supply/demand imbalances, and the operational/techno-
 logical developments needed to redress imbalances.  Fuel shortage crises have been
 recurrent in man's history; e.g. , wood fuel in the early 17th century,  and whale oil
 during the Civil War.  Energy demand soared in the U.S. over the  last two decades
 because real energy prices dropped:  energy was substituted for labor and material
 which were costing more. Now we have material and energy shortages  as well as
 massive unemployment.  There is little agreement regarding our future supply of
 fossil fuels and no consensus on how best to reduce demand.  History shows that the
 imbalance will be resolved. We must ensure that the resolution occurs with the
 lowest possible social and environmental cost.  Price can resolve the  imbalance-
 but, because price does not often reflect all costs,  it can be very disruptive
 Alternatives must be developed and options broadened.  Opportunities  for conserva-
 tion should not be overlooked, for the marginal barrel of oil saved is of greater
 value than the marginal barrel of new production.  Volume I is an overview Volume
 U contains working papers and monographs which discuss certain aspects of the
 "eview more broadly.	^	
                             KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                DESCRIPTORS
                                         b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                                                                 c. COSATI Field/Group
 Energy             Fuels
  upply (Economics) Fossil Fuels
 Demand (Economics)
 Requirements       Conservation
  hortages
 Prices
                             21D
                    05C

                    05E

                    14A
 Unlimited
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                   21. NO. OF PAGES
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