r/EPA
            United States
            Environmental Protection
            Agency
            Great Lakes National
            Program Office
            536 South Clark Street
            Chicago, Illinois 60605
EPA-905/3-85-001
March, 1985
Contaminant Trends
In Lake Trout
(Salvelinus namaycush)
From the Upper
Great Lakes


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                                             EPA 905/3-85-001
                                                   and
                                              GLFL no. 639
            CONTAMINANT TRENDS


                    IN


    LAKE TROUT (Salveilnus namaycush)


                  OF THE


            UPPER GREAT LAKES
             David S. DeVault
   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
   Great Lakes National Program Office
Wayne A. Willford and Robert J. Hesselberg
      U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
      Great Lakes Fishery Laboratory
             1451 Green Road
        Ann Arbor, Michigan  48105
                   For
   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
   Great Lakes National Program Office
          536 South Clark Street
         Chicago, Illinois 60605

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                                   DISCLAIMER





"This report has completed the EPA peer and publications review process



and is approved for publication as an EPA document.   Mention  of trade



names or commercial products does not constitute  endorsement  or recom-



mendation by EPA."

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                                    FOREWORD
The Great Lakes National  Program Office (GLNPO)  of the U.S.  Environmental
Protection Agency was established in Region V, Chicago to focus attention
on the significant and complex natural  resource represented  by the Great
Lakes.

GLNPO implements a multi-media environmental management program drawing on
a wide range of expertise represented by universitites, private firms, State,
Federal and Canadian governmental agencies and the International  Joint Com-
mission.  The goal of the GLNPO program is to develop programs, practices
and technology necessary for a better understanding of the Great Lakes
system and to eliminate or reduce to the maximum extent practicable the
discharge of pollutants into the Great Lakes system.  The GLNPO also
coordinates U.S. actions in fulfillment of the Agreement between Canada
and the United States of America on Great Lakes Water Quality of 1978.

This  study was carried out under a Cooperative Agreement with U.S. Fish
and Wildlife Service, Great Lakes Fishery Laboratory, Ann Arbor, Michigan.
                                      ii

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ABSTRACT

Contaminant body burdens in lake trout from the Upper Great Lakes have been
monitored since 1970 on Lake Michigan and since 1977 and 1978 on Lakes
Superior and Huron by USEPA, Great Lakes National  Program Office and
USFWS, Great Lakes Fishery Laboratory.

Analysis of the Lake Michigan data shows that mean PCB concentrations de-
clined from a maximum of 22.91 mg/kg in 1974 to 5.63 in 1982.  Mean total
DDT concentrations declined from 19.19 mg/kg in 1970 to 2.74 mg/kg in 1982.
The decline in both contaminants closely followed first order loss kinetics.
If the current declines continue, PCB concentrations will decline to the
USFDA tolerance of 2.0 mg/kg in 1988.  Mean total  DDT concentrations
will fall to the IJC objective of 1.0 mg/kg by 1991.  Mean dieldrin con-
centrations increased significantly from 0.20 mg/kg in 1971 to 0.58 mg/kg
in 1979 before declining to 0.21 mg/kg in 1982.  The decline from 1979-
1982 followed first order loss kinetics.  As this decline is not reflected
in other species (bloater chubs, smelt) it will require additional  years of
monitoring to determine if the decline in dieldrin concentrations between
1979 and 1982 truly represents a declining trend.

Contaminants in lake trout from Lake Superior and Lake Huron generally de-
clined over the study period.  The only statistically significant trend
other than in Lake Michigan was for total DDT which declined significantly
in Lake Superior lake trout.  Large data variance and the short time frame
covered (1977-1982) interfered with detection of trends on Lakes Superior
and Huron.

                                    111

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                                    CONTENTS





Foreword	i i



Abstract	,	iii



Tables and Figures	v



Introduction	.1



Methods	2



Results	8



Discussion and Conclusions	19



References	21

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                               Table and Figures



Table 1 - Sample Collection Data	6

Table 2 - PCB and Pesticide Detection Limits	7

Table 3 - Mean Contaminant Concentrations in Lake Trout from
          Lake Michigan	9

Table 4 - Mean Contaminant Concentrations in Lake Trout from
          Lake Huron	16

Table 5 - Mean Contaminant Concentrations in Lake Trout from
          Lake Superior	17



                                    Figures



Figure 1 - Lake Trout Collection Sites	3

Figure 2 - PCB Concentrations in Lake Michigan Lake Trout	11

Figure 3 - Total DDT Concentrations in Lake Michigan Lake Trout	12

Figure 4 - Dieldrin Concentrations in Lake Michigan Lake Trout....	13

Figure 5 - Oxychlordane Concentrations in Lake Michigan Lake Trout.........14

Figure 6 - Total DDT Concentrations in Lake Superior Lake Trout	18

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                                 INTRODUCTION





The presence of toxic organic contaminants, many of which bioaccumulate in



fish, is one of the most serious environmental  problems in the Great Lakes.



During the past decade, contaminants such as PCB, DDT and dieldrin have



been found in Great Lakes fish at concentrations exceeding U.S. Food and



Drug Administration action levels.  Bans and restrictions on the use of



these compounds have been implemented in an effort to control  these problems.





In response to its responsibilities under the U.S. and Canadian Great Lakes



Water Quality Agreements of 1972 and 1978, the International Joint Commission



(IJC) has assisted in the development and implementation of a coordinated



surveillance and monitoring program "to assess compliance with pollution



control requirements and achievement of objectives, to provide information



for measuring loads and whole lake response to control  measures, and to



identify emerging problems."  As part of the coordinated surveillance



program, the U.S. Environmental  Protection Agency's, Great Lakes National



Program Office (GLNPO) and U.S.  Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), Great



Lakes Fishery Laboratory have cooperated in a program to monitor contami-



nant trends in fish collected from each of the Great Lakes and Lake St. Clair,



In this first report resulting from the Cooperative Program we present



the  results of the analysis of lake trout (_Sa_1l_ve_1Li.nu.% namaycusn) collected



in Lakes Michigan, Superior, and Huron in 1977-1982.

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                                   METHODS


Lake Trout were collected by gillnet from Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Superior

(Figure 1) in the fall  of the year by USFWS personnel.   The fish (60 per

collection site) were put into plastic bags, frozen whole, and transported

to the USFWS, Great Lakes Fishery Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Michigan where

they were sorted into small  (300-450 mm), medium (451-650 mm), and large

(>650 mm) size categories (20 fish per category) for each collection site and

year.  Within each size category the fish were grouped  into four composite

samples consisting of five fish each and homogenized in a Hobarf" vertical

chopper/ mixer.  Subsamples of the homogenized tissue were weighed and stored

frozen at <-30C in solvent-washed glass jars with foil -lined screw caps until

analyzed by the USEPA Central Regional Laboratory (CRL), Chicago, Illinois.
At CRL, the samples were thawed, dried with Na2S04, and lipids and contaminants

were column extracted with two 50-ml aliquots of 10% ethyl acetate in petroleum

ether  (Hesse! berg and Johnson 1972).  Lipids were separated from the extract by

gel permeation chromatography (Stalling e al_. 1972).  Pesticides and PCB were

separated on a column of silica gel (Snyder and Reinert 1971).  Final separation

and quantisation of pesticides and PCBs was by a Varian 3700 dual column gas

chromatograph with Ni63 electron capture detectors (CRL 1982) under the follow-

ing operating conditions:

                           Column A                 Column B

Column length            2.4mx2mm  i.d.               2.4mx2mm i.d.
Column materials         4% SE-30/6% SP2401 on       3% OV-101 on  Supelcoport
                         Supelcoport 100-120 mesh    80-100 mesh

 Injection temperature    270C                       270C
Oven  temperature         200C                       200C
Detector temperature     320C                       320C
N2 carrier  gas  flow      ca. 30 ml/min               ca 30 ml/min
Range (amps/mv)          lO"10 amp                   10'10 amp


All  results were  computed  on a mg/kg wet weight basis, and were not  corrected

 for extraction  or recovery efficiency.

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Figure 1.  Lake trout collection sites




                            3

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As initially designed, the sampling program was intended to compare contaminant
levels in fish, both temporally and spatially, in the three size categories
of fish collected from each location.   The results were to be compared  by
using analysis of covariance techniques.  This approach requires that a signifi-
cant correlation exist between contaminant concentrations and the size  of
fish.  If differences are to be tested for, the regressions of contaminant  levels
and fish size must also have similar slopes.  The data for 1977-1979 from
Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Superior were initially analyzed by using this  approach,
Since data for three years, 13 organic contaminants and three sites were included
in the analysis, 117 regressions between contaminant concentration and fish
size were possible.  Of these, 63 were significant at the 95% confidence level.
Among the significant regressions, several exhibited significant (p<0.05)
differences in slopes, either between years or collection sites.  Thus, less
than half of the available data met the requirements for the test.  We there-
fore, decided that although the analysis of convariance technique may be
worthy of further evaluation, the use of mean statistics with specific size
ranges of fish was the most appropriate approach for analyzing available data
and determining differences in contaminant concentrations between sites and
within sites over time.
To  achieve  a comparable size  range of fish from 1977 through 1981 and into future
years  (current  collections consist of fish 600-700 mm long) we used the following
procedure.  The mean  length of all medium and large size group composite samples
from each site  and year was calculated.   When this mean was below 620 mm or
above 640 mm,  the  composite sample with the smallest or largest length was
dropped  and the mean  recalculated.  This  procedure was  repeated until we arrived
at  a mean length  within the 620 mm to 640 mm  range.  The composite  samples

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thus selected were then treated  as  environmental  replicates  and mean  statistics



were used to compare contaminant concentrations.   Table  1  presents  the  fish  size



and lipid data for the samples  thus developed.





For purposes of statistical  analyses and graphical  display,  we calculated



concentrations of contaminants  detected, hut below quantitation limits,  as



1/2 of the limits given in Table 2.

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                                         TABLE  1
                                  SAMPLE  COLLECTION  DATA
    Lake and Year
        Length  (mm)
         Mean SE
                  Weight (g)
                  Mean SE
                     Lipid  %
                     Mean SE
Lake Michigan*
Saugatuck
            1970
            1971
            1972
            1973
            1974
            1975
            1976
            1977
            1978
            1979
            1980
            1981
            1982
Lake Huron
Rockport
            1977
            1978
            1979
            1980
            1981
            1982
 Lake  Superior
 Apostle  Island
             1977
             1978
             1979
             1980
             1981
             1982
18
20
 9
30
30
29
30
 3
 8
 6
 6
 3
10
 6
 5
 6
 6
 10
  7
  7
  6
  7
  5
 10
613  (  9)
579  (  8)
648  (15)
602  (10)
616  (10)
613  (  8)
606  (  9)
636  (53)
631  (27)
630  (40)
637  (18)
620  (37)
612  (  4)
      NO
637   (18)
640   (21)
633   (18)
628   (28)
623   ( 7)
 640   (27)
 638   (27)
 630   (24)
 636   (24)
 634   (29)
 619   (  7)
2084 (149)
2314 (125)
2576 (178)
2353 (120)
2516 (130)
2581 -( 92)
2337 (103)
2888 (681)
2447 (311)
2844 (461)
2843 (296)
2646 (497)
2466 ( 47)
25.63 (1.69)
18.03 (0.68)
18.52 (1.81)
16.00 (0.70)
16.50 (0.56)
19.10 (0.55)
16.80 (0.49)
16.59 (0.88)
17.50 (0.76)
16.78 (1.10)
17.68 (0.74)
17.96 (0.88)
16.53 (0.33)
SAMPLE
     2522 (210)
     3017 (308)
     2674 (230)
     2775 (343)
     2527 ( 84)
     2927 (425)
     3080 (400)
     2797 (312)
     2868 (360)
     2762 (386)
     2479 (103)
19.19 (0.65)
21.30 (0.78)
19.03 (1.10)
18.88 (0.64)
18.10 (0.71)
16.46 (1.80)
21.14 (1.20)
21.80 (1.80)
15.10 (1.30)
15.92
15.67
(0.93)
(0.43)
          Data  for  1970-76  from  the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Great Lakes Fishery
          Laboratory,  collected  before the Cooperative Program began, and are based
          on  analyses  of  individual,  whole fish.

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                                    Table 2

                         PCB and Pesticide Detection  Limits
Compound                                          Quantisation
                                                  Limits  mg/kg
o.p'-DDE                                             0.002

p.p'-DDE                                             0.002

o,p'-ODD                                             0.005

p.p'-DDD                                             0.005

o.p'-DDT                                             0.020

p.p'-DDT                                             0.002

Dieldrin                                             0.002

Total Aroclor (as 1254)                              0.030 - 0.050

Heptachlor                                           0.001

Oxychlordane                                         0.005

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                                    RESULTS



PCBs were the dominate contaminant  at all  sites reflecting its  once wide spread

use (Durfee 1976), environmental  persistance,  and tendency to bioacumulate

(EPA 1983).  The continued presence of DDT residues illustrates the duration

of contaminant problems long after  measures to ban manufacture  and use are

inacted.  Lake Michigan lake trout  generally contained the highest contaminant

concentrations and Lake Superior  the lowest.  Clark et al. (1984)  found a

similar pattern in the relative contaminant levels in coho salmon.  Studies

by Frank \et al. (1980) and Frank  et al. (1981) found the sediment  concen-

trations of PCB, chlordane plus heptachlor and DDT to be similar in Lake

Michigan and Huron and substantially lower in  Lake Superior


La ke Mi chi^gan

Table 3 presents the annual  means and 95 percent confidence intervals for

contaminants in lake trout off saugatuck, Michigan in 1970-19R2.  Before

1977 individual fish were analyzed  by the Great Lakes Fishery Laboratory

by the analytical methodology described in Willford et^ a\_. (1976).  Since

1977 five fish composite samples  were analyzed by USEPA.


Mean PCB concentrations (mg/kg) increased from 12.86 in 1972 to 22.91 in

1974, and the declined to 6.49 in 1981.


Mean PCB concentrations from 1974 - 1981 declined, generally following

first order loss  rate  kinetics in the form of the  following equation:


     Ct  =C0e'*T                                  (1)

where C^ = concentration at time, Cg = initial concentration, K = rate
           constant,  and T  = Time

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Table 3.   Mean Contaminant Concentrations  in lake trout from
       Lake Michigan off Saugatuck,  mg/kq  wet weight
          (95% confidence intervals  in parenthesis)
Year
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
Wfl ^ IMnt
PCB*
NA
NA
12.86
( 8.11,
18.93
(16.85,
22.91
(19.18,
22.28
(19.38,
18.68
(16.02,
11.58
(-2.30,
8.18
( 5.50,
8.82
( 5.20,
9.93
( 2.00,
6.49
( 4.51,
5.63
( 5.36,
Anal V7pd



17.61)
21.01)
26.64)
25.18)
21,34)
25.4 )
10.90)
12.50)
17.80)
8.46)
5.89)

DDT
19.19
(15.90,
13.00
(11.24,
11.31
( 8.05,
9.96
( 8.60,
8.42
( 6.68,
7.50
( 6.25,
5.65
( 4.61,
6.34
(-0.40,
4.58
( 2.32,
6.91
( 2.80,
4.74
( 1.90,
3.22
( 2.11,
2.74
( 2.34,


22.46)
14.76)
14.57)
11.32)
10.16)
8.75)
6.69)
13.10)
6.83)
11.00)
7.50)
4.34)
3.14)

Oxychlordane
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.230
(-0.71, 0.531)
0.175
( 0.072, 0.278)
0.240
( 0.136, 0.344)
0.160
( 0.039, 0.280)
0.061
( 0.049, 0.073)
0.075
( 0.057, 0.093)

Dieldrin
0.27
(0.22,
0.20
(0.17,
0.20
(0.14,
0.27
(0.24,
0.30
(0.27,
0.35
(0.32,
0.30
(0.28,
0.40
(0.35,
0.44
(0.28,
0.58
(0.25,
0.335
(0.20,
0.26
(0.24,
0.21
(0.16,

0.32)
0.23)
0.26)
0.30)
0.33)
0.38)
0.32)
0.45)
0.61)
0.91)
0.47)
0.28)
0.28)

Number of
Samples
18
20
9
30
30
29
30
3
8
6
6
3
10

                                            ._.-  !    1Q77  ri

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Figure 2 illustrates  the loss trajectory based on the least  squares  fit  (r2  =

89.6, P<0.01) to the  mean yearly PCB concentrations.   The rate  constant  is

-0.18/yr.


Mean total  DDT concentrations (mg/kg)  declined from 19.19 in 1970  to 2.74

in 1982.  The observed decline in mean total  DDT concentrations also followed

first order loss rate kinetics (equation 1).   Figure  3 illustrates the loss

trajectory from 1970  to 1982.  The rate constant is -0.13/yr with  r2 = 90.9
Mean dieldrin concentrations (mg/kg)  decreased from 0.27  in  1970  to  0.20

in 1971, then increased to 0.58 in 1979 after which concentrations declined

to 0.22 in 1982.  The increase in mean concentrations  between  1972 and

1979 was highly significant (P<0.01,  R2 = 86.6) following the  linear equation:


                    Ct = 0.045 (Y) -  3.02                     (2)

Where  C^ = mean dieldrin concentration (mg/kg) in  year t and  Y = year
            (1900's) from 72-79


From 1979 to 1982 mean concentrations declined, following first order loss

kinetics (equation 1), with a loss rate of -0.32/yr.   The curve on Figure 4

illustrates the loss trajectory based on a least squares  fit to the  data

(r2 = 93.2, P<0.05).


The chlordane metabolite, oxychlordane, increased from 1977  through  1979

and decreased from 1979 through 1982.  The decrease (Figure  5) in mean

concentration from 1979 to 1982 was significant (P<0.05,  R2  =  85.1)  following

the 1 inear equation.


                    Ct = 0.059 (y) +  4.92                     (3)

Where C^ = mean oxychlordane concentration (mg/kg)  in  year t and y = year
           (1900's) from 79 to 82.

                                     10

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  30 r
  28 -
  26
  24
  22
  20
  18
D)


 14
CD
o
a

  12
  10
   8
   6

                      I
                                     -23
                        I
             I
             I
         1972
           1974
1976       1978

     YEAR
1980
1982
               Figure 2.   PCB Trends in  Lake Michigan Lake Trout


                                         11

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1970
1972
                      1974
 1976
YEAR
                                 1978
                                                        1980
                                   1982
     Figure  3.  Total DDT trends in Lake Michigan lake trout.
                                  12

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a>
 1 00  -





 095  -





 0.90  -





 0.85





 0.80





 075





 0.70





 0.65





 0.60



n

 0 55





 0.50
2
"e
6  0.45
   0.40
   0.35
   0.30
   0.25
   0.20
   0.15
   0 10
   005
   0.00
                                                         -
                                                                     I
           1970
                     1972
1974
 1976

YEAR
1978
                                                                   1980
                                                                              1982
                  Figure A.   Dieldrin trends in Lake Michigan lake  trout.


                                               13

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   .54
   .50
   .46
   .40
   .36
 O)
    -0
   .32
 O)


~ .28
 0)
 c
 CO


I-24
JC
 O

 X* .20
O
   .16
   .12 -
   .08
   .04
 
   0.0  -
-.071



 I
                       "
                       1
            1
1
          1977
           1978
1979       1980

    YEAR
                                                         1981
                                                          1982
              Figure 5. Oxychlordane trends in Lake Michigan lake trout.


                                       14

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j-a_ke_Jju.rgjl_
Unlike Lake Michigan, where comparable trend monitoring begain as early as
1970, the Lake Huron data base began in 1978 (Table 4).  Despite general
declines in the mean concentrations of PCB and  DDT from 1979 to 1982 no
statistically significant (P<0.05) trends were observed for any of the
monitored compounds.  Annual mean total DDT and PCB concentrations exceeded
the  IJC  (1978) objectives (1.0 mg/kg and 0.1 mg/kg, respectively) in each
year of  the study.

Lake Super101r
Contaminant concentrations  in Lake Superior lake trout are given in Table 5.
The  relatively low levels of PCB, dieldrin, and oxychlordane did not exhibit
trends nor statistically significant (P<0.05) differences over the study
period.

Total DDT concentrations in Lake Superior lake trout  (Figure 6) declined
significantly  (P<0.05,  r2 = 78.9) from 1977 to 1982,  following the equation:

                     Ct = -0.162 (y) + 13.7                     (4)
Where C^ = mean total DDT concentration (mg/kg) in year t and y = year  (1900s)
           from 77 to 82.

The  annual mean PCB  concentration exceeded the IJC (1978) objective in  each
year of  the study.   The IJC (1978) total DDT objective was exceeded by  the
mean concentrations  in  1977 through 1979, but not from 1980 to 1982.
                                      15

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                                                       Table  4
                                      Results of Contaminant  Monitoring of Lake Trout
                                                From Rockport,  Lake Huron
                                              Mean  (95% Confidence  Interval)
                                                 All data mg/kg wet weight
Year
1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

PCB*
2.92
(2.32,
3.66
(1.57,
3.44
(2.46,
3.51
(2.31,
2.10
(1.72,


3.52)

5.75)

4.42)

4.72)

2.49)
DDT
2.19
(2.05,
2.85
(1.94,
1.53
(1.10,
1.79
(1.15,
1.31
(1.13,
Oxychlordane

2.33)

3.76)

1.96)

2.43)

1.49)
0.038
(0.033,
0.060
(0.024,
0.056
(0.039,
0.058
(0.040,
0.059
(0.044,

0.043)

0.097)

0.073)

0.076)

0.074)
Dieldrin
0.16
(0.14,
0.19
(0.14,
0.13
(0.10,
0.14
(0.12,
0.15
(0.11,

0.17)

0.24)

0.15)

0.16)

0.18)
Number of
Samples
6

5

6

6

10

                                                                                                              
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                                                      Table  5
                                     Results  of Contaminant  Monitoring  of Lake  Trout
                                         From the  Apostle  Island,  Lake  Superior
                                             Mean  (95% Confidence  Interval)
                                               All  Data mg/kg  Wet  Weight
Year
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
PCB*
1.87
(0.95,
0.93
(0.65,
0.88
(0.59,
1.89
(0.41,
1.40
(0.37,
0.48
(0.36,

2.80)
1.21)
1.17)
3.36)
2.44)
0.60)
DDT
1.2
(0.76,
1.02
(0.66,
1.095
(0.61,
0.62
(0.13,
0.81
(-0.09,
0.288
(0.214
Oxychlordane
1
1
1
1
1
,0
.80)
.39)
.57)
.11)
 71)
.47)
0.120
(0.059,
0.402
(0.110,
0.136
(0.102,
0.026
(0.018,
0.056
(0.001,
0.041
(0.036,
0.180)
0.700)
0.375)
0.035)
0.111)
0.047)
Dieldrin
0.05
(0.03,
0.06
(0.05,
0.07
(0.05,
0.045
(0.02,
0.05
(0.03,
0.05
(0.04,
0
0
0
0
0
0
.06)
.07)
.08)
.06)
.07)
.05)
Number of
Samples
7
7
6
7
5
10
*PCB quantitated as Aroclor 1254

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  20 r-
  1.8
  1.6
   1.4
   1.2
e>

1 1.0

O
O
   0.6




   0.4




   0.2
               I
                                                  I
             1977
1978
1979        1980

     YEAR
1981
1982
                 Figure  6.   Total DDT  trends in Lake Superior lake trout.



                                              18

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                         Discussion  and  Conclusions





Of the data sets for the three upper lake monitoring sites  reported here,



only that for Lake Michigan,  was  sufficient  to  allow rigorous  statistical



evaluation of trends with time.  This is principally because FWS  had collected



data for 6 years before the current  U.S. EPA/U.S.  FWS cooperative program  was



begun in 1977.  As a result of these extra years  of  data, we were able  to



demonstrate that mean PCB and mean total DDT concentrations  in lake trout  off



Saugatuk declined in a manner that approximated first order  loss  kinetics.



Rodgers and Swain (1983) reported that the decline of PCB concentrations in



bloaters (Coregonus hoyi) from Lake  Michigan (off Saugatuck) from 1972  to



1980 also approximated first  order loss  kinetics  with a  rate constant of



-0.12/yr.  They used the trend data  for  bloaters  to  hindcast loads and  then



used their loading estimates  to forecast concentrations  in  other  fish species.



They estimated that PCB concentrations in Lake  Michigan  trout  would reach  2



mg/kg in 1987.  By solving equation  (1)  for  t,  we  calculate that  PCB concen-



trations will drop to 2 mg/kg in  1988.   This estimate is in excellent agreement



with the projections of Rodgers and  Swain (1983),  particularly when the



difference in approach and the uncertainties of such projections  are considered,



These projections presuppose  that PCB loading into Lake  Michigan  will continue



to decrease at a rate at least equal  to  that before  1982.   As  atmospheric



deposition now contributes will over 50  percent of the total load (Murphy  and



Rzesutko 1977), this decrease may not be affected.





A similar projection of total DDT concentration suggests that  mean con-



centrations will reach the IJC objective of  1.0 mg/kg in about 1991.
                                     19

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Despite cancellation of most uses of aldrin and dieldrin in 1974 (EPA 1980),



mean concentrations in lake trout in Lake Michigan off Saugatuck increased



from 0.27 mg/kq in 1970 to 0.58 mg/kg in 1979.  From 1979 to 1982 mean



dieldrin concentrations declined in a manner approximating first order loss



kinetics.  However, other species such as bloater chubs and rainbow smelt



have not exhibited the decline observed in lake trout.  Dieldrin concentrations



in bloaters in Lake Michigan increased from a mean of 0.27 (mg/kg) in 1970



to 0.43 in 1982 (Willford 1982), while rainbow smelt remained relatively



constant (range 0.046 - 0.071 mg/kg) from 1977 to 1982 (GLNPO-unpublished data).



Elevated dieldrin concentrations resulted in seizure of commerical catches of



Lake Michigan bloaters by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in 1984



(David Crockett, U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Chicago, Illinois,



personal communications, 1984).  Therefore, while the apparent decline in



lake trout is encouraging, it will require additional years of monitoring



to test this trend.





With the exception of  DDT which declined significantly in Lake Superior lake



trout  from 1977 to  1982, no significant changes in contaminant concentrations



were observed  in lake trout from Lake Huron or Lake Superior.  The combination



of limited data sets, large data  variance, and relatively lower contaminant



concentrations  interfered with the detection of trends.  The ineffectiveness



of the study design  used  from  1977 to  1981  (sampling three size ranges of



fish), and the  resulting  requirements  to select fish over a large size range



and  greatly  reduce  the  number  of  yearly  samples,  was partly responsible  for



the  large  variance  associated  with  the  1977 to 1981 data.  Although the



covariance approach will  be further  evaluated, the monitoring  protocol



 used since 1982 for this  cooperative  program  utilizes  mean statistics



 on  results from 10 composite samples  of 5  fish each,  all  of which are  600



 to 700 mm long.  The reduced variance under this  more  stringent  sampling



 protocol will  greatly enhance the likelyhood of  detecting significant  differences



 between any two sites or years when contaminant  concentrations are changing.



                                      20

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                                  References
Clark, J.R., D.DeVault, R.J. Bowden, and J.A. Weishaar.  1984.  Contaminant
   "analysis of fillets from Great Lakes coho salmon,  1980.
   J. Great Lakes Res. 10:38-47.

Central  Regional  Laboratory (CRL). 1982.  Standard operating procedure for
   the analysis of contaminants in fish for the open  lake program Great Lakes
   fish contaminant dynamics project.  USEPA. Chicago, Illinois.

DeVault, D.S., and J.A. .Weishaar. 1984.  Contaminant  analysis  of  1982 fall
   run coho salmon.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Great  Lakes
   National Program Office.  EPA 905/3-84-004.

Durfee, R.L. 1976.  Production and usage of PCBs in the  United States.  In:
   Proceedings of the National Conference on Polychlorinated Biphenyls.
   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Toxic Substances,
   Washington,D.C.  pp 103-107, EPA-560/6-75-004.

EPA. 1980.  Ambient water quality criteria for dieldrin.  U.S. Environ-
   mental  Protection Agency, Office of Water Regulations and Standards,
   Washington, D.C.  EPA 440/5-80-019.

EPA. 1983. Environmental transport and transformation of polychlorinated
   biphenyls. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office  of  Pesticides
   and Toxic Substances, Washington, D.C. EPA 560/5-83-025.

Frank R., R.L. Thomas, H.E. Braun, J.Rasper, and R. Dawson.  1980. Organo-
   chlorine insectides and PCB in surficial sediments of Lake  Superior
   (1973).  J. Great Lakes Res. 6:113-120.

Frank R., R.L. Thomas, H.E. Braun, D.L. Gross and  T.T. Davies. 1981.
   Organochlorine insecticides and PCB in surficial sediments  of  Lake
   Michigan (1975). J. Great Lakes Res. 7:42-50.

Hesselberg R.J., and J.L. Johnson. 1972. Column extraction  of  pesticides
   from fish, fish food, and mud. Bull. Environ. Contam  Toxicol.
   7:115-120.

International Joint Commission. 1978. Status Report on persistent-toxic
   pollutants in the Lake Ontario Basin. Great Lakes  Water  Quality Board,
   Windsor, Ontario, Canada.

Murphy, T.J. and C.P. Rzeszutko. 1977. Precipitation  inputs of PCBs to
   Lake Michigan. J. Great Lakes Res. 3:305-312.  *

Rodgers, P.W., and W.R. Swain. 1983. Analysis of polychlorinated  biphenyl
   (PCB) loading trends in Lake Michigan. J. Great Lakes Res.  9:548-558.
                                     21

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Snyder, D. and R.  Reinert.  1971.  Rapid  separation  of  polychlorinated  biphenyls
   from DDT and its analogues on  silica gel.  Bull.  Environ.  Contam. and  T-oxicol
   6:385-390.

Stalling, D.L., R.C. Tindle,  and  J.L. Johnson.  1972.  Cleanup of pesticide  and
   polychlorinated biphenyl  residues  in fish  extracts by gel  permeation
   chromatography  J. Assoc.  Off.  Anal.  Chen.  55:32-38.

Willford, A., J. Hesselberg,  and  W. Nicholson.  1976.  Trends  of polychlorinated
   biphenyls in three Lake  Michigan fishes.  I^n:  Proceedings  of the National
   Conference on Polychlorinated  Biphenyls.  U.S. Environmental  Protection
   Agency, Office  of Toxic  Substances,  Washington,  D.C.  pp 177-181,
   EPA-560/6-75-004.

Willford, A. 1982. Evaluating the presence and  effects  of contaminants in
   fish of the Great Lakes.  Minutes of  the Great Lakes  Fishery Commission
   Annual Meeting, Green Bay, Wisconsin, June 9-10, 1982, Agenda Item 14.C.,
   Appendix XXVI:273-284.

Zar, J. 1974. Biostatistical  Analysis.  Prentice Hall. Inc.,  Englewood
   Cliffs, N.J.
                                      22

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                                  TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                           (Please read fauructions on the reverse before completing)
1  REPORT NO.
   EPA-905/3-85-001
                                                          3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSIOWNO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
  Contaminant Trends In Lake Trout
    (Salvelinus namaycush) of the
    Upper Great Lakes
                                               5 REPORT DATE
                                                  April  1985
                                               6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE

                                                  5GL
7. AUTHOR(S)
  David  S.
                                                          8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
De Vault
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
  U.S.  Fish  and Wildfile Service
  Great Lakes Fishery Laboratory
  1451  Green Road
  Ann Arbor, Michigan  48105
                                               10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.


                                               11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
  U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency
  Great Lakes  National Program Office
  536 South Clark  Street, Room 958
  Chicago,  Illinois 60605
                                               13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                                                 Fish  Monitoring 1977-1982	
                                               14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
                                                 Great Lakes National Program
                                                 Office-USEPA. Region V
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
   Contaminant body burdens in lake  trout  from the Upper Great Lakes  have been
   monitored  since 1970 on Lake Michigan and since 1977 and 1978  on Lakes Superior
   and  Huron  by USEPA, Great Lakes National  Program Office and USFWS,  Great
   Lakes  Fishery Laboratory.

   Analysis of the Lake Michigan data  shows  that mean PCB concentrations declined
   from maximum of 22.91 mg/kg in 1974 to  5.63 in 1982.  Mean total DDT  concentra-
   tions  declined from 19.19 mg/kg in  1970 to 2.74 mg/kg in 1982.  The decline in
   both contaminants closely followed  first  order loss kinetics.   If  the current
   declines continue, PCB concentrations will decline to the USFDA tolerance of 2.0
   mg/kg  in 1988.  Mean total  DDT concentrations will fall to the  IJC  objective of
   1.0  mg/kg  by 1991.  Mean dieldrin concentrations increased significantly from
   0.20 mg/kg in 1971 to 0.58 mg/kg  in 1979  before declining to 0.21  mg/kg in 1982.
   The  decline from 1979-1982 followed first order loss kinetics.  As  this decline
   is not reflected in other species (bloater chubs, smelt) it will require additional
   years  of monitoring to determine  if the decline in dieldrin concentrations between
   1979 and 1982 truly represents a  declining trend.
17.
                               KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                              b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS  C.  COSATI Field/Group
  Contaminants
  Monitoring
  Toxic  organic
  Pesticides
  Lipids
  Lake Trout
is. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT  Document is available
 to the public through  the  National  Techni-
 cal  Information Service,  Springfield, VA
                                       22151
                                  19. SECURITY CLASS (ThisReport)
                                                                         21. NO. OF PACES
                                  20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
                                                             22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
                                                         GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE: 1985-557-017

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