&EPA
               -<*/
               United States
               Environmental Protection
               Agency
              Washington, D.C. 20460
EPA-600/8-80-003

July 1980
              Office of Research and Development
Environmental
Outlook 1980

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                                             EPA 600/8-80-003
                                             AUGUST 1980
ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK 1980
         OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
         U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
               WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460



         'I'.S. L-nv!rnnrri.ntal Protection An«rie$r
         R> ,*!co V, Litr.*"/
         2,o G3uth PV\..-L- .-n r*---.t
         Chicago, iUiruij  C, C J;

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                            FOREWORD
     A number of recent actions have been taken to ensure that our
research program better supports regulatory activities and better
prepares the Agency to deal with future environmental problems.
One of these actions was to establish an Office of Strategic Assess-
ment and Special Studies in the Office of Research and Development.
Environmental Outlook 1980 is the first major report produced by
this office.  While in many respects more a blueprint for future
reports than a comprehensive assessment of future environmental
trends, this 1980 report marks progress toward achieving our objec-
tive of providing participants in our long-range research and devel-
opment planning process an overview of likely environmental futures
and an interpretation and analysis of potentially significant future
environmental problems.

     The Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies is already
taking steps to improve future Environmental Oulook reports.  We wel-
come comments and suggestions concerning how to improve future reports
and make them more useful.
                                        Stephen J. G«fge
                                        Assistant Administrator for
                                        Research and Development
                               iii

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             PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
     Environmental Outlook is an annual publication of the Office  of
Research and Development (ORD),  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA).  Under the direction of Irvin L. (Jack)  White,  this report  for
1980 has been produced by an interdisciplinary  team whose members
were drawn from ORD1s Office of  Strategic Assessment and Special
Studies and four contractors:  The MITRE Corporation/Metrek Division
(prime contractor), CONSAD Research Corporation,  International Re-
search & Technology Corporation, and Urban Systems Research and
Engineering, Inc.  The Control Data Corporation provided computer
services support for the project.  Four team members had major man-
agement roles in this effort:  Brian Price and  Beth Borko of MITRE
and Haven Whiteside and John W.  Reuss of the Office of Strategic
Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS).

     Other members of the interdisciplinary team include the follow-
ing:

     Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies

          John Agosta
          Robert Barles
          David Bennett
          Valdis Goncarovs

     The MITRE Corporation

          Thomas Wolfinger

     CONSAD Research Corporation

          Alan Bernstein

     International Research & Technology Corporation

          Richard Meyer

     Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc.

          Peter Hall
          Kevin Hollenbeck

Other persons who contributed to the report are as follows:

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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

     Michael Bergman, Special Projects Office, RTP
     Alvin Edwards, Strategic Assessment and Special Studies, ORD
     Gloria Reese, Strategic Assessment and Special Studies, ORD
     Mark Schaefer, Technical Information, ORD

The MITRE Corporation, Metrek Division

     Judith Cambon                 Andrew Lawrence
     Edward Friedman               Marc Narkus-Kramer
     Dabney Hart                   Sheila Pack
     Sharon Hill                   Daniel Schultz
     Richard Kalagher              John Wik
     Carol Kuhlman                 Joe Wisniewski

International Research & Technology Corporation

     Donald Cooper                 Mark Sayers
     Ralph Doggett                 Robert Stricter
     Susan Hall                    Ginger Spence

CONSAD Research Corporation

     Nazir Dossani
     Thomas Piwowar
     Mary Reiter
     Gabe Sucher

Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc.

     Jean Banks                   Annuardha Deolalikar
     Robert Burke                 Lee Dillard
     Martha Connolly              Claire Nivola
     Christian Demeter            Mark Stellwagen

Control Data Corporation

     Carol Metzger
     Shahen Tahmassian

Consultants

     Yakov Haimes, Case-Western Reserve University
     Frank Maslan, Private Consultant

Editorial Experts, Inc.

     Hardy Dietz
     Lola Zook

                             vi

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                      TABLE OF CONTENTS
FORWARD                                                         iii

PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS                                      v

LIST OF FIGURES                                                xvii

LIST OF TABLES                                                  xxv

INTRODUCTION                                                      1

CHAPTER 1   ENVIRONMENTAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT                3
1.1  A PERSPECTIVE ON OUR ENVIRONMENTAL  FUTURE                     3
1.2  STRATEGIC ANALYSIS AND EPA's LONG-RANGE R&D
     PLANNING PROCESS                                             4
1.3  ORGANIZATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL  OUTLOOK 1980                    6

CHAPTER 2   APPROACH                                              9
2.1  INTRODUCTION                                                 9
2.2  THE SEAS MODEL                                              10
2.3  THE HIGH AND LOW GROWTH SCENARIOS                            12
     2.3.1  Economic Growth                                      13
     2.3.2  Population Growth                                    13
     2.3.3  Energy Supply and Demand                              18
     2.3.4  Environmental Regulation                              18
2.4  ANALYSIS OF TRENDS                                          18

CHAPTER 3   SOCIETAL TRENDS                                      21
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 3                                          21
3.1  INTRODUCTION                                                21
3.2  GENERAL DETERMINANTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL
     QUALITY AND CHANGE                                          21
3.3  PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS                                          22
     3.3.1  Development of Concern  for the
            Environment                                          22
     3.3.2  Trends in Public Opinion                              28
     3.3.3  Organized Groups                                     32
3.4  U.S. LEGISLATION                                            32
     3.4.1  Background Trends in Governmental
            Policies                                             32
     3.4.2  The Federal-State Relationship                        34
     3.4.3  Major Environmental Legislation—
            Objectives and Approaches                             36
                                vii

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     3.4.4  Comparisons of Legislative
            Approaches                                            45
     3.4.5  Recent Trends                                         46
     3.4.6  Future Directions                                     48
3.5  INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS                                   49
     3.5.1  Trends in Other Countries                             49
     3.5.2  International Dimensions of Environmental
            Issues                                                50
3.6  CONCLUSIONS                                                  53

CHAPTER 4  AIR POLLUTANTS                                         55
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 4                                           55
4.1  INTRODUCTION                                                 56
     4.1.1  Problem Definition and Regulatory
            Background                                            56
     4.1.2  Relevant Scenario Assumptions                         61
     4.1.3  Data Sources and Quality                              61
     4.1.4  Organization of Chapter                               64
4.2  PARTICULATES                                                 64
     4.2.1  Introduction                                          65
     4.2.2  Emission Trends for Particulates                      67
4.3  SULFUR OXIDES                                                76
     4.3.1  Introduction                                          77
     4.3.2  Emission Trends for Sulfur Oxides                     78
4.4  NITROGEN OXIDES                                              86
     4.4.1  Introduction                                          87
     4.4.2  Emission Trends for Nitrogen Oxides                   88
4.5  HYDROCARBONS                                                 93
     4.5.1  Introduction                                          98
     4.5.2  Emissions Trends for Hydrocarbons                    100
4.6  CARBON MONOXIDE AND DIOXIDE                                 103
     4.6.1  Introduction                                         106
     4.6.2  Emissions Trends for Carbon Monoxide                 107
4.7  OTHER POLLUTANTS                                            114
     4.7.1  Photochemical Oxidants—Ozone                        116
     4.7.2  Fine Particulates                                    119
     4.7.3  Lead                                                 124
     4.7.4  Trace Elements                                       130
4.8  IMPLICATIONS OF AIR POLLUTANT EMISSION TRENDS               143
     4.8.1  Introduction                                         144
     4.8.2  Implications of Particulate Emission
            Trends                                               146
     4.8.3  Implications of Sulfur Oxide Emission
            Trends                                               154
                                viii

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     4.8.4  Implications of Nitrogen Oxide
            Emission Trends                                       159
     4.8.5  Implications of Hydrocarbon Emission
            Trends                                                159
     4.8.6  Implications of Carbon Monoxide
            Emission Trends                                       160
     4.8.7  Synergistic Effects of Air Pollutant
            Emissions                                             164

CHAPTER 5   GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION                          173
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 5                                           173
5.1  INTRODUCTION                                                 173
5.2  CARBON DIOXIDE                                               174
     5.2.1  Introduction                                          174
     5.2.2  Control Options                                       179
     5.2.3  Trends                                                183
     5.2.4  Impacts and Implications                              195
5.3  ACID DEPOSITION                                              197
     5.3.1  Problem Identification and Regulatory
            Background                                            197
     5.3.2  Emission Trends                                       201
     5.3.3  Acid Precipitation Trends                             201
     5.3.4  Effects, Impacts, and Implications                    204
5.4  STRATOSPHERIC OZONE                                          211
     5.4.1  Introduction                                          212
     5.4.2  Problem Identification and Regulatory
            Background                                            212
     5.4.3  Relevant Scenario Assumptions                         226
     5.4.4  Data Sources and Quality                              227
     5.4.5  Trends in Factors Affecting Ozone                     228
     5.4.6  Trends in Ozone Depletion                             233
     5.4.7  Impacts and Implications                              234

CHAPTER 6   WATER POLLUTANTS                                      241
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 6                                           241
6.1  INTRODUCTION                                                 241
6.2  POINT SOURCE POLLUTANTS                                      245
     6.2.1  Introduction                                          245
     6.2.2  Biochemical Oxygen Demand                             258
     6.2.3  Suspended Solids                                      271
     6.2.4  Dissolved Solids                                      277
     6.2.5  Nitrogen                                              284
     6.2.6  Phosphorus                                            292
     6.2.7  Oil and Grease                                        300
     6.2.8  Toxics and Other Pollutants                           309

                                  ix

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6.3  NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTANTS                                 333
     6.3.1  Introduction                                         335
     6.3.2  Urban Runoff                                         343
     6.3.3  Agricultural Runoff                                  353
     6.3.4  Other Non-point Sources                              387
6.4  IMPLICATIONS OF WATER POLLUTANT TRENDS                      403
     6.4.1  Point and Non-point Sources                          403
     6.4.2  Comparison of Point and Selected
            Non-point Source Discharge Trends                    413
     6.4.3  Major Water Quality Problems in
            Regions                                              428
     6.4.4  Impacts of Population and Industrial
            Change on Water Quality                              428

CHAPTER 7   DRINKING WATER                                       441
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 7                                          441
7.1  INTRODUCTION                                                441
     7.1.1  Legislative Background and Current
            Programs                                             441
     7.1.2  Data Sources and Quality                             445
     7.1.3  Organization of Chapter                              445
7.2  SOURCES OF DRINKING WATER                                   446
     7.2.1  Surface Water Supply                                 446
     7.2.2  Ground Water Supply                                  448
7.3  MAJOR DRINKING WATER CONTAMINANTS                           448
     7.3.1  Biological and Inorganic Contaminants                450
     7.3.2  Organic Contaminants                                 455
     7.3.3  Hazardous Wastes                                     457
7.4  DOMESTIC WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS                               460
     7.4.1  Domestic Water Supply, Use, and
            Consumption                                          460
     7.4.2  Central Water Supply Systems                         460
     7.4.3  Non-Central Rural Water Supply Systems               463
7.5  DRINKING WATER ISSUES                                       464
     7.5.1  National Office of Drinking Water                    464
     7.5.2  Regional                                             465

CHAPTER 8   WATER RESOURCES                                      471
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 8                                          471
8.1  INTRODUCTION                                                471
     8.1.1  Problem Identification                               471
     8.1.2  Legal Framework                                      472
8.2  U.S. WATER RESOURCE TRENDS                                  475
     8.2.1  Introduction                                         475
     8.2.2  Water Resource Regions                               476

                                  x

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     8.2.3  The U.S. Water Budget                                476
     8.2.4  Water Use                                            476
     8.2.5  Functional Water Use Trends                          480
     8.2.6  Instream Water Use                                   483
8.3  IMPLICATIONS                                                484
     8.3.1  Overview                                             484
     8.3.2  Select Water Resource Issues                         485
8.4  SUMMARY:  WATER CONSERVATION AND REUSE                      487
     8.4.1  Overview                                             487
     8.4.2  Agricultural Irrigation                              488
     8.4.3  Water Reuse                                          488

CHAPTER 9   MARINE POLLUTION                                     491
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 9                                          491
9.1  INTRODUCTION                                                491
     9.1.1  Problem Identification                               491
     9.1.2  Regulatory Background                                492
     9.1.3  Data Sources and Quality                             493
     9.1.4  Organization of Chapter                              493
9.2  OIL SPILLS                                                  494
     9.2.1  Environmental Effects                                494
     9.2.2  Regulatory Mandates                                  495
     9.2.3  Trends in Oil Spills                                 496
9.3  OCEAN DUMPING                                               499
     9.3.1  Environmental Effects                                499
     9.3.2  Regulatory Mandates                                  500
     9.3.3  Trends in Ocean Dumping Excluding Dredged Material   500
     9.3.4  Trends in Dredged Materials Dumping                  502
     9.3.5  Ocean Disposal of Radioactive Wastes                 502
9.4  OCEAN DISCHARGES                                            505
     9.4.1  Environmental Effects                                505
     9.4.2  Regulatory Mandates                                  505
     9.4.3  Trends in Ocean Discharges                           505
9.5  OTHER ISSUES                                                506
     9.5.1  Power Generation Facilities                          506
     9.5.2  Deep Sea Mining                                      506
     9.5.3  Toxic Chemicals                                      507
9.6  SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS                                    507

CHAPTER 10   SOLID AND HAZARDOUS WASTES                          511
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 10                                         511
10.1  INTRODUCTION                                               511
      10.1.1  Problem Identification and
              Regulatory Background                              511
      10.1.2  Relevant Scenario Assumptions                      513

                                  xi

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      10.1.3  Data Sources and Quality                           516
      10.1.4  Organization of Chapter                            516
10.2  HAZARDOUS WASTES                                           516
      10.2.1  Introduction                                       517
      10.2.2  Existing Disposal Sites                            519
      10.2.3  Future Disposal of Hazardous
              Wastes                                             524
10.3  MUNICIPAL AND INDUSTRIAL SOLID WASTES                      528
      10.3.1  Introduction                                       529
      10.3.2  Industrial Solid Wastes                            529
      10.3.3  Municipal Solid Wastes                             530
10.4  MINING AND RELATED WASTES                                  540
      10.4.1  Introduction                                       540
      10.4.2  Mining Wastes                                      541
      10.4.3  Oil Shale Wastes                                   547
10.5  SECONDARY SOLID WASTES                                     550
      10.5.1  Introduction                                       550
      10.5.2  Noncombustible Solid Wastes                        553
      10.5.3  Industrial Sludge                                  566
      10.5.4  Municipal Sewage Sludge                            576
10.6  OTHER SOLID WASTES                                         583
      10.6.1  Introduction                                       583
      10.6.2  Silvicultural Solid Wastes                         583
      10.6.3  Animal Wastes                                      584
      10.6.4  Agricultural Wastes                                585
      10.6.5  Demolition Wastes                                  585
      10.6.6  Transportation Wastes                              586
10.7  IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS                                   586
      10.7.1  Groundwater Contamination                          587
      10.7.2  Public Opposition                                  588
      10.7.3  Land Availability                                  588
      10.7.4  Site Suitability                                   588
      10.7.5  Cost of Disposal                                   589
      10.7.6  Other Problems                                     589
      10.7.7  Mitigating Factors                                 589
10.8  SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS                                    590

CHAPTER 11   TOXIC SUBSTANCES                                    593
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 11                                         593
11.1  INTRODUCTION                                               594
11.2  LEGISLATION AND REGULATION                                 596
      11.2.1  Introduction                                       596
      11.2.2  The Toxic Substances Control Act                   597
                                 xii

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      11.2.3  Pesticide Regulation                               597
      11.2.4  Other Laws and Other Agencies                      598
11.3  DATA SOURCES AND QUALITY                                   605
11.4  ORGANIZATION OF CHAPTER                                    606
11.5  IDENTIFICATION OF TOXIC SUBSTANCES                         606
      11.5.1  Introduction                                       606
      11.5.2  Toxicity Versus Risk                               606
      11.5.3  Exposure                                           606
      11.5.4  Toxicity                                           607
11.6  TRENDS                                                     609
      11.6.1  Introduction                                       609
      11.6.2  Trends in Chemical Industry
              Production                                         610
      11.6.3  High Volume Toxic Organic Chemicals                612
      11.6.4  Inorganic Chemicals (Heavy Metals)                 616
      11.6.5  Pesticides                                         620
11.7  IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS                                   622
      11.7.1  Introduction                                       622
      11.7.2  Accumulation and Bioconcentration                  623
      11.7.3  Effects on Reproductive Functions                  635
      11.7.4  Carcinogenicity                                    637

CHAPTER 12   RADIATION                                           643
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 12                                         643
12.1  INTRODUCTION                                               644
      12.1.1  Problem Definition                                 644
      12.1.2  Organization of Chapter                            645
12.2  IONIZING RADIATION                                         645
      12.2.1  Introduction                                       645
      12.2.2  Regulatory Background                              647
      12.2.3  Data Sources and Quality                           651
      12.2.4  Sources of Ionizing Radiation                      651
      12.2.5  Trends                                             657
      12.2.6  Effects of Ionizing Radiation                      670
12.3  NONIONIZING RADIATION                                      676
      12.3.1  Introduction                                       676
      12.3.2  Regulatory Background                              677
      12.3.3  Data Sources and Organization of
              Discussion                                         680
      12.3.4  Sources of Nonionizing Radiation                   680
      12.3.5  Trends                                             682
      12.3.6  Effects and Implications                           686
                                xiii

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CHAPTER 13   NOISE                                               695
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 13                                         695
13.1  INTRODUCTION                                               695
      13.1.1  Problem Identification                             695
      13.1.2  Regulatory Background and Research                 697
13.2  IMPACTS AND TRENDS                                         702
      13.2.1  Noise Sources and Existing Levels                  702
      13.2.2  Trends in Noise Exposure Levels                    708
13.3  ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS                                    711
      13.3.1  Noise-Induced Hearing Loss                         711
      13.3.2  Other Effects                                      712
      13.3.3  Noise Control Regulation                           712

CHAPTER 14   ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT                          713
HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 14                                         713
14.1  INTRODUCTION                                               713
      14.1.1  Scenario Assumptions                               714
      14.1.2  Regulatory Background                              720
      14.1.3  Data Sources and Quality                           722
      14.1.4  Chapter Organization                               722
14.2  TRENDS IN ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTANTS                         722
      14.2.1  SEAS High Growth Scenario
              Pollution Trends                                   723
      14.2.2  Low Growth Scenario Comparisons                    732
      14.2.3  Implications of Environmental
              Trends Associated With the High
              Growth Scenario                                    735
      14.2.4  Implications of Scenario Differences               737
14.3  COMPARISON OF ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
      ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERING ENERGY SCENARIOS                 738
      14.3.1  Pollutant Releases From Energy
              Technologies                                       739
      14.3.2  Major Energy-Related Pollutant
              Trends of the High Growth Scenario                 746
      14.3.3  Alternative Energy Scenarios                       749
14.4  SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS                                    760
      14.4.1  Pollutant Effects of Energy-Related
              Changes                                            760
      14.4.2  Timeframe For Environmental Impacts                761
      14.4.3  Energy and Environmental Goals                     762
                                  xiv

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                                                                 Page







APPENDIX A  DESCRIPTION OF SEAS                                  763




APPENDIX B  ADDED DETAIL ON SEAS SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS            773




APPENDIX C  SELECTED ENGLISH-METRIC CONVERSION FACTORS           795




SELECTED REFERENCES                                              799
                                  xv

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                         LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Number
    1-1        EPA Long-Range Research Planning Process            5
    1-2        R&D Planning and the Budget Process                 7

    2-1        A Flow Diagram of the SEAS Computer Model          10
    2-2        Map of the Federal Regions                         11
    2-3        Assumed Gross National Product Increase in
               High and Low Growth Scenarios                      15
    2-4        Assumed Trends in U.S. Population,  1975-2000       15
    2-5        Change in Percent of Total U.S.  Population,
               by Region, High Growth Scenario, 1975-2000         16
    2-6        Major Energy Demand Assumptions                     19

    3-1        Attitudes Toward Environmental Protection
               Versus Economic Growth                             31

    4-1        Trends in gross, Captured, and Net  Particulate
               Emissions, by Source, High Growth Scenario,
               1975, 1985, 2000                                   68
    4-2        Trends in Net Particulate Emissions by Source,
               High Growth Scenario, 1975, 1985, 2000             69
    4-3        Electricity Generation and Net Particulate
               Emissions from Old (pre-1976) and New Coal-
               Fired Electric Utilities, 1975,  1985, 2000         72
    4-4        Trends in Regional Particulate Emissions,
               1975 and 2000                                      74
    4-5        Trends in Sulfur Oxide Emissions, by Source,
               High Growth Scenario, 1975, 1985, 2000             81
    4-6        Trends in Regional Sulfur Oxide  Emissions,
               1975 and 2000                                      83
    4-7        Trends in Net Sulfur Oxide Emissions, Region
               VI, 1975 and 2000                                  85
    4-8        Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, by Source,
               High Growth Scenario, 1975, 1985, 2000             91
    4-9        Trends in Regional Nitrogen Oxide Emissions,
               1975 and 2000                                      94
    4-10       Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, by Source  Region  VI,
               1975 and 2000                                      96
    4-11       Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, by Source  Region
               VIII, 1975 and 2000                                97
    4-12       Trends in Hydrocarbon Emissions, by Source,
               High Growth Scenario, 1975, 1985, 2000            102
    4-13       Trends in Regional Hydrocarbon Emissions,
               1975 and 2000                                     104
                                 xvii

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Figure Number                                                    Page

    4-14       Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions, by Source,
               High Growth Scenario, 1975, 1985, 2000            110
    4-15       Trends in Regional Carbon Monoxide Emissions,
               1975 and 2000                                     111
    4-16       Carbon Monoxide Emissions, by Source, Region
               IV, 1975 and 2000                                 113
    4-17       Carbon Monoxide Emissions, by Source, Region
               V, 1975 and 2000                                  115
    4-18       Chemical Changes Occurring During Exposure of
               Nitrogen Oxides and Hydrocarbons to Simulated
               Sunlight                                          117
    4-19       Soil Transect of High-Traffic-Volume Street       125
    4-20       Ecological Flow Chart of Lead Showing Potential
               Cyclic Pathways                                   127
    4-21       Major Sources of Trace Element Emissions, by
               Region, 1975                                      142
    4-22       Trends in Net Particulate Emission Density
               versus Population Density, 1975 and 2000          147
    4-23       Counties Containing Class I PSD Areas             152
    4-24       Potential Population Exposure to Sulfur Oxide
               Emissions                                         155
    4-25       Regional Distribution of Acid Rainfall            167
    4-26       Trends in the Acidity of Precipitation Over
               the Eastern United States, 1955-1956 to 1972-
               1973                                              168

    5-1        Simplified Representation of the World Carbon
               Cycle                                             184
    5-2        Historical Trends in Atmospheric Carbon
               Dioxide Concentrations                            187
    5-3        U.S. and Global Contributions to Total Fossil
               Fuel-Induced CC^ Release                          189
    5-4        Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentrations
               Range Analysis                                    190
    5-5        Temperature Range Analysis                        194
    5-6        Formation and Deposition of Acidic Components     199
    5-7        Projections of S02 Emissions, by Major. Source
               Categories, 1975-1990                             202
    5-8        Projections of NOX Emissions, by Major Source
               Categories, 1975-1990                             203
    5-9        Acidity of Precipitation in Scandinavia During
               the Past Two Decades                              205
    5-10       Acidity of Precipitation Over the Eastern
               United States                                     206
    5-11       Frequency Distribution of pH in Lakes in the
               Adirondack Mountains, New York                    208

                                 xviii

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Figure Number                                                    Page

    5-12       Distribution of pH and Fish Population Status
               in Adirondack Mountain Lakes During the Summer
               of 1975                                           209
    5-13       The Atmosphere's Temperature/Altitude Profile     213
    5-14       Ozone Profile in the Stratosphere Over Wallops
               Island, Virginia, July 29, 1975                   217
    5-15       Average Global Distributions of Total Ozone       218
    5-16       Change over Time of World Ozone                   218
    5-17       Average Ozone and Sunspot Number                  219
    5-18       Decrease in Ozone above the 4 Millibar Surface
               for a Solar-Proton Event August 4, 1972           220
    5-19       Global Fluorocarbon Production                    223
    5-20       Calculated Reduction of Ozone in the Northern
               Hemisphere as a Result of Nuclear Bomb Tests      232
    5-21       Reported Skin Cancer Rates Among Whites vs.
               Ultraviolet Flux                                  235
    5-22       Location of Basal-Cell Skin Cancers of the
               Torso and Extremities                             236
    5-23       Reported Skin Cancer Rates Among Light Skinned
               Individuals as a Function of Latitude             237

    6-1        EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Industrial Discharges, 1977           247
    6-2        Gross, Intermediate, and Net Biochemical Oxygen
               Demand (BOD) Discharges, by Region, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975, 1985, 2000                        263
    6-3        Gross and Net Discharges of Biochemical Oxygen
               Demand (BOD), by Industry Group, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           265
    6-4        Gross Intermediate and Net Discharges of
               Suspended Solids, by Region, 1975, 1985, 2000     274
    6-5        Gross and Net Dissolved Solids Discharges, by
               Region, High Growth Scenario, 1975, 1985, 2000    279
    6-6        Gross and Net Discharges of Dissolved Solids,
               by Industry Group, High Growth Scenario, 1975
               and 2000                                          281
    6-7        Gross and Net Nitrogen Discharges, by Region,
               High Growth Scenario, 1975, 1985, 2000            287
    6-8        Gross and Net Discharges of Nitrogen, by
               Industry Group, High Growth Scenario, 1975
               and 2000                                          290
    6-9        Gross, Intermediate, and Net Phosphorus
               Discharges, by Region, High Growth Scenario,
               1975, 1985, 2000                                  294
                                 xix

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Figure Number                                                    Page

    6-10       Gross, Intermediate, and Net Oils and Grease
               Discharges, by Region, High Growth Scenario,
               1975, 1985, 2000                                  303
    6-11       Gross and Net Discharges of Oil and Grease, by
               Industry Group, High Growth Scenario, 1975 and
               2000                                              305
    6-12       Estimates of Coliform Bacteria Pollution at
               41 Sites Under 1975 Conditions, After BPT, and
               After BAT                                         328
    6-13       Estimated Percent of Sediment Yield, by Source,
               1977                                              340
    6-14       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Pollution from Urban Runoff, 1977     345
    6-15       Regional Distribution of Gross Discharges of
               Major Water Pollutants in Urban Runoff, 1975      351
    6-16       Change in Regional Gross Discharges of Major
               Water Pollutants in Urban Runoff, 1975 and
               2000                                              352
    6-17       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Pollution from Agricultural
               Activities, 1977                                  357
    6-18       Trends in Gross Discharges of Sediment in
               Agricultural Runoff, by Crop, 1975 and 2000       363
    6-19       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges of
               Sediment in Agricultural Runoff, by Crop,
               Regions III, IV, V, VI, and VII, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           367
    6-20       Trends in Gross Discharges in Nutrients in
               Agricultural Runoff, by Crop, 1975 and 2000       369
    6-21       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges of
               Nitrogen in Agricultural Runoff, by Crop,
               Regions HI, IV, V, VI, and VII, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           374
    6-22       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges of
               Phosphorus in Agricultural Runoff, by Crop,
               Regions HI, IV, V, VI, and VII, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           375
    6-23       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges of
               Potassium in Agricultural Runoff, by Crop,
               Regions III, IV, V, VI, and VII, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           376
    6-24       Trends in Gross Discharges of Pesticides in
               Agricultural Runoff, by Crop, 1975 and 2000       378
    6-25       Trends in Regional Discharges of Herbicides in
               Agricultural Runoff, by Crop, Regions III, IV,
               V, VI, and VII, High Growth Scenario, 1975 and
               2000                                              381

                                  xx

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Figure Number                                                    Page

    6-26       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges of
               Insecticides in Agricultural Runoff,  by Crop,
               Regions IV, V, VI, and VII, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           383
    6-27       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges of
               Fungicides in Agricultural Runoff,  by Crop,
               Regions III, IV, V, VI, VII, and X, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           386
    6-28       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges of
               Miscellaneous Pesticides in Agricultural
               Runoff, by Crop, Regions III, IV, and VI,  1975
               and 2000                                          388
    6-29       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Pollution from Mining Activities,
               1977                                              394
    6-30       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Pollution from Silvicultural
               Activities, 1977                                  399
    6-31       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Pollution from Construction
               Activities, 1977                                  404
    6-32       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Suspended Solids, 1977                406
    6-33       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Dissolved Solids, 1977                407
    6-34       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Biochemical Oxygen Demand, 1977        408
    6-35       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Toxic Pollutants, 1977                410
    6-36       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Nutrients, 1977                       411
    6-37       EPA-Designated Hydrological Drainage Basins
               Affected by Oil and Grease, 1977                  412
    6-38       Trends in Regional Discharges of Total
               Suspended Solids, by Polluting Source, High
               Growth Scenario, 1975 and 2000                    418
    6-39       Trends in Regional Discharges of Total
               Dissolved Solids, by Polluting Source, High
               Growth Scenario, 1975 and 2000                    421
    6-40       Trends in Regional Discharges of Oil and Grease,
               by Polluting Source, High Growth Scenario,
               1975 and 2000                                     425

    7-1        U.S. Water Hardness Water Year 1975               454
    7-2        Cardiovascular Disease, Age-Adjusted Mortality,
               1968-1972                                         454
                                xxi

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Figure Number                                                    Page

    8-1        Water Resources Regions                           477
    8-2        The U.S.  Water Budget                             477
    8-3        Distribution of Total Freshwater Withdrawals
               and Consumption by Functional Use,  1975 and
               2000                                              482

    9-1        Volume of Oil Spilled in U.S. Coastal Waters,
               1972-1978                                         496
    9-2        Trends in Ocean Dumping, Excluding  Dredged
               Material, 1949-2000                               501
    9-3        Trends in Ocean Dumping of Dredged  Material,
               1968-2000                                         503

   10-1        Identified Hazardous Waste Sites                  521
   10-2        Trends in Generation of Oil Shale Wastes,  1975,
               1985, 1990, 2000                                  549
   10-3        Trends in Generation of Noncombustible Solid
               Waste, by Major Industries, 1975, 1985,
               2000                                              556
   10-4 '      Trends in Regional Generation of Noncumbustible
               Solid Waste, by Major Industries, 1975, and
               2000                                              559
   10-5        Trends in Generation of Industrial  Sludge, by
               Major Industries, 1975, 1985, 1990, 2000          570
   10-6        Trends in Regional Generation of Industrial
               Sludge, by Major Industries, 1975 and 2000        572
   10-7        Trends in Generation of Municipal Sludge,  1975,
               1985, 1990, 2000                                  578

   11-1        Some Chemical Industry Production Trends          611
   11-2        Production of Selected High Volume  Organic
               Chemicals                                         613
   11-3        Selected Heavy Metals-United States Consumption
               and Atmospheric Residuals                         617
   11-4        Apparent Domestic Consumption of Insecticides      621
   11-5        Mortality Rates in the United States              638
   11-6        Mortality Rates from Cancer in the  United
               States                                            639
   11-7        Mortality Rates from Cancer in the  United
               States                                            639
   11-8        Cigarette Consumption and Lung Cancer Mortality
               in the United States                              642

   12-1        The Radiation Spectrum                            646
   12-2        The Nuclear Fuel Cycle                            654
   12-3        Nuclear Power Growth Estimates                    662

                                 xxii

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Figure Number                                                   Page

   12-4        Leukemia Incidence in A-Bomb Survivors,
               Nagasaki,  1950-1971                                673
   12-5        Breast Cancer Incidence in A-Bomb Survivors,
               Hiroshima  and Nagasaki, 1950-1969                  673
   12-6        Agencies Responsible for Nonionizing
               Radiation                                           678
   12-7        Historical Increases in Land Mobile Radio
               Service Stations                                   683
   12-8        Projected  Increases in Broadcast Services           684
   12-9        High Power Army Transmitters                       686
   12-10       Microwave  Exposure, Standards,  and Guidelines       690

   14-1        Selected Forecasts of Future Energy Production      715
   14-2        Major Energy Demand Assumptions                    718
   14-3        Particulate (TSP) Emissions Per 1012  Btu
               Produced                                           740
   14-4        Sulfur Oxide (SOX) Emissions Per 1012 Btu
               Produced                                           741
   14-5        Nitrogen Oxide (NOX) Emissions  Per 1012  Btu
               Produced                                           742
   14-6        Hydrocarbon (HC) Emissions Per  1012 Btu
               Produced                                           743
   14-7        Generation of Solid Wastes Per  1012 Btu
               Produced                                           744

    A-l        SEAS Flow  Diagram                                  764
    A-2        Examples of SEAS Sectors                           767
    A-3        RESGEN                                             769

    B-l        Energy Supply Assumptions                          777
    B-2        Fuel Mix Assumptions for Electric Utilities         781
    B-3        Industrial Fuel Mix Assumptions                    786
                                xxiii

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                          LIST OF TABLES
Table Number

    2-1        Principal Scenario Assumptions                     14
    2-2        Regional Population Growth, 1975-2000              17

    3-1        A Selective List of U.S. Environmental Events,
               1872-1979                                          24
    3-2        American Environmental Organizations by Date of
               Founding (1870-1970)                               33
    3-3        Objectives and Approaches for Carrying out
               Objectives of Major Environmental Legislation      37

    4-1        Major Regulatory Mechanisms for Air Pollution
               Control                                '            57
    4-2        Major Assumptions Affecting Projections of
               Future Levels and Distribution of Air Pollutant
               Emissions                                          62
    4-3        Principal Sources of Net Particulate Emissions,
               1975                                               70
    4-4        Principal Sources of Net Sulfur Oxide Emissions,
               1975                                               79
    4-5        Principal Sources of Net Nitrogen Oxide
               Emissions, 1975                                    89
    4-6        Trends in Motor Vehicle Transportation Activity,
               Energy Use, and Net Nitrogen Oxide Emissions,
               1975-2000                                          92
    4-7        Scenario Comparison of Net Nitrogen Oxide
               Emissions, 2000                                    92
    4-8        Principal Sources of Net Hydrocarbon Emissions,
               1975                                              100
    4-9        Scenario Comparison of Net National Hydrocarbon
               Emissions, 2000                                   101
    4-10       Comparison of Net Carbon Monoxide Emissions from
               Human Activity, 1975 and 2000                     108
    4-11       Major Sources of Fine Particulate Emissions,
               1972                                              123
    4-12       Comparisons of Estimates of Net Lead Emissions,
               1975 and 2000                                     129
    4-13       Human Threshold Limit Values and Toxic Effects
               of Trace Elements                                 131
    4-14       Demand Patterns for Eight Trace Elements, 1975    135
    4-15       Trace Elements Constituents of Selected Ores
               and Fuels                                         137
    4-16       Distribution of Current Trace Element Emission
               Sources                                           138

                                  xxv

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Table Number                                                     Page
    4-17       Control Techniques for Trace Element Emission     139
    4-18       Sources of Fugitive Emissions and Dust            150
    4-19       Point and Area Sources of Fugitive Emissions and
               Dust in AQCRS That Did Not Meet TSP Standards     151
    4-20       Regional Distribution of Counties with
               Violations of EPA Primary Standards for Total
               Suspended Particulates, 1975                      153
    4-21       Regional Distribution of Counties with
               Violations of EPA Sulfur Dioxide Standards,
               1975                                              157
    4-22       Regional Distribution of Counties with
               Violations of Carbon Monoxide Standards, 1975     161
    4-23       Trends in Urban Ambient Air Quality, 1975,  1985,
               1990                     '                        163
    4-24       Regional Distribution of Counties with
               Violations of Both Sulfur Dioxide and Particu-
               late Standards, 1975                              166
    4-25       Regional Distribution of Counties with
               Violations of EPA Oxidant Standards, 1975         170
    4-26       Expected Hydrocarbon Emission Reduction and
               Air Quality Improvements, 1975 and 1990           172

    5-1        Range of CC^-Induced Temperature Rise             178
    5-2        C02 Emission From Various Fossil Fuels            180
    5-3        Comparison of Technology Systems Producing 1
               Quad Per Year of Space Heating                    181
    5-4        Production of Selected Fluorocarbons:  1958-
               1973                                              222

    6-1        Water Quality Changes at NASQAN Stations, 1975
               to 1977                                           244
    6-2        Water Pollution Impacts from Point Sources,
               1977                                              248
    6-3        Projected Output and Growth Rates for Major
               Point Sources of Water Pollution, 1975, 1985
               2000                                              252
    6-4        U.S. Population and Population Served by
               Municipal Treatment Facilities, 1975, 1985,
               2000                                              253
    6-5        Trends in Steelmaking Technologies                253
    6-6        Comparison of Industry Coverage Between
               Compatible Industries in SEAS and NAE Data
               Bases, by Pollutant                               256
    6-7        Gross BOD Generation by Selected Industry
               Groups, 1975 and 2000                             260
    6-8        Net BOD Discharges by Selected Industry Groups,
               1975 and 2000                                     262

                                xxvi

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Table Number                                                     Page

    6-9        Population Growth and Trends in Gross
               Generation of BOD, by Region, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           267
    6-10       Output of the Pulp and Paper-Industry, by
               Region:  High Growth Scenario, 1975 and 2000      270
    6-11       Discharges and Abatement Percentages of
               Suspended Solids by Industrial Group, 1975,
               1985, 2000                                        275
    6-12       Projected Discharges of Phosphorus by Major
               Sources, High Growth Scenario, 1975, 1985,
               2000                                              297
    6-13       Threshold Limits and Effects of Selected Toxic
               Pollutants                                        311
    6-14       Trends in Discharges of Toxic Pollutants, High
               Growth Scenario, 1975 and 2000                    313
    6-15       Chromium Discharges for Selected Industrial
               Groups, 1975 and 2000                             315
    6-16       Copper Discharges for Selected Industrial
               Groups, 1975 and 2000                             317
    6-17       Phenol (as Oil and Grease) Discharges for
               Selected Industrial Groups, 1975 and 2000         321
    6-18       Phenol (as Dissolved Solids) Discharges for
               Selected Industrial Groups, 1975 and 2000         321
    6-19       COD Discharges for Selected Industrial Groups,
               1975 and 2000                                     324
    6-20       Cooling Water Used by Selected Industries         332
    6-21       Comparison of Estimates of Needs for Alterna-
               tive Power Plant Cooling Systems                  334
    6-22       Drainage Basins Affected by Non-point1 Sources
               of Pollution, by Type of Non-point Source, 1977   338
    6-23       Drainage Basins Affected by Non-point Sources
               of Pollution, by Type of Pollution Problem,
               1977                                              339
    6-24       Representative Rates of Erosion from Various
               Land Uses                                         341
    6-25       Trends in Gross Discharges of Major Water
               Pollutants in Urban Runoff                        350
    6-26       Trends in Gross Discharges of Sediment in
               Agricultural Runoff, 1975 and 2000                362
    6-27       Trends in Agricultural Activity and Soil Loss,
               1975 and 2000                                     365
    6-28       Trends in Regional Agricultural Activity and
               Soil Loss, High Growth Scenario, 1975 and 2000    366
    6-29       Trends in Gross Nutrient Discharges in
               Agricultural Runoff, 1975 and 2000                368
                                xxvii

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Table Number
    6-30       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges  of  Nitrogen
               in Agricultural Runoff,  High Growth  Scenario,
               1975 and 2000                                     371
    6-31       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges  of  Phos-
               phorus in Agricultural Runoff,  High  Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           372
    6-32       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges  of
               Potassium in Agricultural Runoff,  High  Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           373
    6-33       Trends in Gross Discharges of Pesticides  in
               Agricultural Runoff,  1975 and 2000                377
    6-34       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges  of  Herbi-
               cides in Agricultural Runoff, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           379
    6-35       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges  of
               Insecticides in Agricultural Runoff, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           382
    6-36       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges  of  Fungicides
               in Agricultural Runoff,  High Growth  Scenario,
               1975 and 2000                                     384
    6-37       Trends in Regional Gross Discharges  of  Mis-
               cellaneous Pesticides in Agricultural Runoff,
               High Growth Scenario, 1975 and 2000                385
    6-38       Trends in the Output  of the Mining Industry,
               1975 and 2000                                     395
    6-39       Trends in Discharges  of Major Water  Pollutants
               from Point and Selected Non-point Sources         415
    6-40       Trends in Regional Discharges of Total  Suspended
               Solids and Total Dissolved Solids, High Growth
               Scenario, 1975 and 2000                           414
    6-41       Trends in Regional Discharges of Oil and Grease,
               High Growth Scenario, 1975 and 2000                424
    6-42       Major Water Quality Problems Affecting  Each
               Federal Region                                    429
    6-43       Population Growth Projections, Sunbelt  and
               Frostbelt Regions, 1975-2000                      432
    6-44       Community Cost Analysis Water Pollution and
               Erosion                                           436

    7-1        States Qualified to Enforce the Safe Drinking
               Water Act                                         443
    7-2        U.S. Freshwater Surface Supplies, by Water
               Resource Regions of the Water Resources Council,
               1975                                              447
    7-3        U.S. Ground Water Supplies, by Water Resource
               Regions of the Water Resources Council, 1975      449


                               xxviii

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Table Number                                                     Page

    7-4        Selected Water Quality Constituent Violations
               in 138 Municipal Supply Sources,  1955-1977        453
    7-5        Etiology of Waterborne Disease Outbreaks in
               the United States, 1971-1977                      456
    7-6        Freshwater Withdrawals and Consumption            461

    8-1        Total Fresh- and Saline-Water Withdrawals,
               "1975"                                            478
    8-2        Total Freshwater Withdrawals and Consumption,
               "1975," 1985, 2000                                479
    8-3        Total Withdrawals and Consumption, by Functional
               Use, for the Twenty-One Water Resource Regions,
               "1975," 1985, 2000                                481

    9-1        Tanker Ship Oil Spills, 1975-1978                 497
    9-2        Offshore Production-Related Oil Spills, Gulf
               of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf, 1971-1978      498
    9-3        Ocean Disposal of Radioactive Wastes              504

   10-1        RCRA Regulations and Guidelines Issued or in
               Preparation as of May 5, 1979                     514
   10-2        Generation of Hazardous Waste by Selected
               Industries                                        518
   10-3        Projected Annual Net Industrial Solid Waste
               Generation, by Material, 1971, 1980, 1990         531
   10-4        Estimates of Net Municipal Solid Waste
               Generation, 1975 and 1990                         533
   10-5        Major Centralized Resource Recovery Systems       537
   10-6        Resource Recovery Facilities in the United
               States                                            538
   10-7        Projected Annual Ore Production by Selected
               Industries                                        542
   10-8        Projected Annual Generation of Mining Solid
               Wastes, by Selected Industries                    543
   10-9        Disposal Methods for Mining Wastes                546
   10-10       Trends in Generation of Noncombustible Solid
               Wastes, by Major Contributing Industries          555
   10-11       Trends in Regional Generation of Noncombustible
               Solid Waste                                       558
   10-12       Trends in Generation of Noncombustible Solid
               Waste, by Major Contributing Industries,
               Region VI                                         562
   10-13       Commercial Utilization of Ash in the United
               States, 1975                                      564
   10-14       Potential Uses for Coal Ash                       565
   10-15       Trends in Generation of Industrial Sludge, by
               Major Contributing Industries                     568

                                xxix

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Table Number
   10-16       Trends in Regional Generation of Industrial
               Sludge                                            571
   10-17       Trends in Regional Generation of Municipal
               Sewage Sludge                                     580
   10-18       Percent of Increase in Municipal Sewage Sludge
               Due to Population Growth and Increased Level
               of Waste Treatment                                581

   11-1        EPA Authority and Regulation of Toxics            599
   11-2        Pesticide Residues in Agricultural Soils,
               FY 1969 - FY 1974                                 624
   11-3        Toxic Residues in U.S. Fish, 1969-1977 as
               Evidence of Bioconcentration                      625
   11-4        Toxic Residues in U.S. Water Fowl by Flyway,
               1965-1976 as Evidence of Bioconcentration         626
   11-5        Toxic Residues in U.S. Starlings, 1967-1975
               as Evidence of Bioconcentration                   627
   11-6        Population Characteristics and Toxic Residues
               in Brown Pelicans in California, 1969-1975
               as Evidence of Bioconcentration                   628
   11-7        Chlorinated Hydrocarbon Residues in Human Fat
               as Evidence of Bioconcentration                   629
   11-8        Some Pesticides in the Milk of 1,400 Women        630
   11-9        Diet Intake of Pesticides, FY 1966 - FY 1974      632
   11-10       Total DDT Equivalent Residues in Human Adipose
               Tissue from General Population, United States     633
   11-11       Residues of PCBs in Human Tissue, FY 1972 -
               FY 1975                                           634

   12-1        Annual Individual Ionizing Radiation Dose         648
   12-2        Federal Agencies with Primary Regulatory
               Responsibility for Radiation Health and Safety    650
   12-3        Trends in Radiation Dose to U.S. Population
               from Diagnostic Radiology                         658
   12-4        Trends in Dose from Diagnostic Radiology,  1964
               and 1970                                          659
   12-5        Trends in Dose per Examination                    660
   12-6        Radioactive Waste Generation                      666
   12-7        Nominal "Lifetime" Requirements for Nuclear
               Waste Management and Disposal                     667
   12-8        Total Annual Whole Body Doses from Global
               Fallout                                           669
   12-9        Radiation Dose to U.S. Population                 671
   12-10       Annual Factory Sales of Electronics by Industry
               ($ million) United States: 1939-1988              683
   12-11       Ambient Nonionizing Radiation Levels              692
                                 xxx

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Table Number

   12-12       Population Exposures to Radiofrequency/
               Radiation                                          693

   13-1        Summary of Machine Noise by Industry               704
   13-2        Estimate of the Number and Percentage of
               Production Workers Overexposed to Noise            705
   13-3        Comparison of Maximum Daytime and Minimum
               Nighttime Hourly Outdoor Noise Levels in City
               and in Detached Housing Residential Areas          706
   13-4        Estimated Percentage of Urban Population
               Residing in Areas with Various Day-Night Noise
               Levels Together with Customary Qualitative
               Description of the Area                            707
   13-5        Summary of Estimated Reduction of Noise
               Exposure from Aircraft within L
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                         INTRODUCTION
     The Environmental Outlook reports published by the Office of
Research and Development (ORD) are intended to provide information on
environmental trends and future environmental problems to partici-
pants in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's long-range re-
search and development (R&D) planning process.  In particular, these
reports are intended to provide such information in support of the
Agency's annual Congressionally-mandated Research Outlook report, the
R&D strategies developed by ORD's 13 Research Committees, and the
Agency's budget planning process.  These relationships are described
further in Chapter 1.

     Earlier editions of the Environmental Outlook were basically
data handbooks that reported trends data on major air and water pol-
lutants.  Environmental Outlook 1980 is a much more ambitious report.
The first two chapters describe the environmental and institutional
context and the approach employed in producing the report.  Chapter 3
describes societal trends,  primarily trends in public attitudes about
environmental protection and environmental policy.  Chapters 4 (Air
Pollutants) and 5 (Global Atmospheric Pollution) discuss trends in
air pollutants and air quality problems.  Chapters 6, 7, 8, and 9
focus on water:  6 on water pollution trends, 7 on drinking water, 8
on water resources, and 9 on marine pollution.  Chapter 10 presents a
discussion of trends and problems in solid and hazardous wastes.
Discussions of toxic substances, radiation (ionizing and nonioniz-
ing), and noise follow in Chapters 11, 12, and 13.  In light of the
important relationship between energy and environment, Chapter 14
singles out energy for special attention.

     A separate Summary Report is available.

-------
                            CHAPTER 1
     ENVIRONMENTAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CONTEXT
1.1  A PERSPECTIVE ON OUR ENVIRONMENTAL FUTURE

     In the 10 or so years since environmental quality became a
matter of great public concern, some progress has been made,  particu-
larly in controlling the most visible and obvious forms of environ-
mental pollution.  However, we have not achieved many of our  stated
environmental goals; in fact, the problems being addressed by the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and others are becoming
more evident, more pervasive, and more difficult to control.

     Hazardous wastes are a case in point.  Several dramatic  indica-
tions of the potential scope and intractability of this environmental
problem have surfaced—first at Love Canal in New York, then  at the
"Valley of the Drums" in Kentucky, and more recently in old landfills
in Arkansas.1  Many other examples can be cited, and they tend to
have one thing in common:  specialists may (or may not) have  known
about them, but they caught society by surprise.

     We do know, at least in a general way, what causes the problems
with which EPA and others are currently wrestling.  While some have
"natural" origins, the root cause of a majority of environmental
problems can be traced to human beings and their activities.   World-
wide, both population and economic activity have been increasing for
centuries.  The U.S. population growth rate is much lower than the
world average; nevertheless, our population is still increasing, and
this growth is being distributed very unevenly.  Ours is a highly
industrialized, technological society.  Although the economic growth
rate is currently much lower than most Americans would like,  the
scale, intensity, and sophistication of industrial production in the
United States are unprecedented.

     Like citizens in other Western societies, we have generally
accepted the proposition that economic growth is directly correlated
with human welfare.   We have also assumed that economic growth is
    is estimated that a half million tons of hazardous  wastes  are
 improperly stored in the Erie and Niagara Falls  area.   Nearly 40,000
 barrels of pesticide wastes were improperly disposed of in western
 Kentucky and are now in various stages of deterioration.   Large
 landfills used for years as disposal sites for pesticide  wastes have
 created serious land and water pollution problems  over a  wide area
 near Jacksonville, Arkansas.

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directly related to energy consumption.  President Carter called our
attention to this aspect of our national character in his speech to
the nation on Sunday, July 15, 1979.  The President also alluded to
the interrelationships among energy, the economy, and the environ-
ment.  The fact of these interrelationships has long been recognized,
but the reality of having to wait in lines at gas stations, pay ris-
ing bills in times of double-digit inflation, and witness the horrify-
ing effects of the inadequate disposal of hazardous wastes has re-
minded us in recent months of how much our daily lives are affected
by energy, economic, and environmental policies.

     By its very nature, this interdependence produces considerable
tension in our political system.  Currently, advocates of accelerated
domestic energy production argue that our environmental protection
goals should be given a lower priority than our energy goals.  Numer-
ous proposals have been made to relax environmental standards, delay
compliance schedules, and grant environmental exemptions.  These
proposals generally have not been adopted—at least in part because
the American public and its leaders continue to be strongly committed
to protecting and improving environmental quality.  However, there
now appears to be an increasing realization that energy, economic,
and environmental policies must be considered jointly in the develop-
ment and implementation of regulations.  Establishment of the Federal
Regulatory Council, with EPA Administrator Douglas Costle as chair-
man, is one tangible outgrowth of this realization.

     Much of the current frustration in the environmental area can be
attributed to two sources:  (1) unanticipated and unpleasant environ-
mental surprises, such as Love Canal; and (2) lack of certainty about
how to deal with some of the severe environmental problems, such as
toxic substances, which we are, or may be, facing.  Major efforts are
under way in EPA and in other Federal departments and agencies to
reduce this uncertainty and eliminate environmental surprises.  One
of the actions taken in EPA"s Office of Research and Development
(ORD) has been to establish a new unit—initially called the Strate-
gic Analysis Group, and now the Office of Strategic Assessment and
Special Studies.

1.2  STRATEGIC ANALYSIS AND EPA's LONG-RANGE R&D PLANNING PROCESS

     The Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies (OSASS)
is responsible for providing information on environmental trends and
future environmental problems to participants in EPA's long-range
research and development planning process depicted in Figure 1-1.

-------
V_n
National
Academy of
Sciences
Penn State
Interagency
Regulatory
Liaision
Group
          Strategic
          Analysis
          Group
                                                   Research Committees

                                                   • Municipal Wastewater,
                                                     Spill Prevention, and
                                                     Ocean Disposal
                                                   • Industrial Wastewater
                                                   • Water Quality
                                                   • Drinking Water
                                                   • Solid Waste
                                                   • Mobile Source Air
                                                     Pollution
                                                   • Gaseous and Inhalable
                                                     Particulate Pollutants
                                                   • Hazardous Air
                                                     Pollutants
                                                   • Oxidants
Formal
Agency,
Office of
Management
and Budget,
and
Congressional
Budget
^

^<
'*$.'
s*1*
A ' -ft
^£™
\





• Chemical Testing and
Assessment
• Pesticides
• Energy





-*




Sb
Process







—*


V&-

In— house
Laboratory
Work





1


%&* v^^^V

- -5
\i
5*1$
i
ss
                                                           FIGURE 1-1
                                    EPA LONG-RANGE RESEARCH PLANNING PROCESS

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     The environmental futures information provided by the OSASS in
its Environmental Outlook reports is particularly important in the
preparation of the Research Outlook report and development of the
Research Committees'  R&D strategies.  The annual Research Outlook, a
Congressionally mandated, comprehensive, 5-year environmental R&D
plan, is EPA's basic R&D planning document.  It describes EPA's R&D
programs for supporting the Agency's regulatory mission and preparing
it to deal with future environmental problems.

     The Research Committees are responsible for developing R&D stra-
tegies for the 13 areas listed in Figure 1-1.  To achieve their
intended objectives, these strategies, which are brought together in
the comprehensive 5-year plan, also must address both the Agency's
present and future R&D needs.

     As shown in Figure 1-2, the Research Outlook and Research Com-
mittee strategy documents also have a major role in the Agency's
budget process.  The Office of Strategic Assessment and Special
Studies and the Environmental Outlook report are major inputs to this
process as well.

     This 19&0 report comes much closer than previous reports to pro-
viding the kinds of environmental trends and future environmental
problems information needed to support EPA's long-range R&D planning.
However, it still falls short of what we hope to be able to provide
in future reports.  To meet our expectations, we have to greatly
improve our strategic analysis capability.  The results of this
effort will be reflected in future Environmental Outlook reports.

1.3  ORGANIZATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL OUTLOOK 1980

     The overall organization of Environmental Outlook 1980 was
described in the Introduction.  Chapters 3-13 present our projections
of the environmental outlook  from the present to the year 2000, in
the  form of projections within a range  of high and  low estimates of
economic and energy supply growth.  The factors that determine envi-
ronmental problems and  trends in public opinion and governmental
policies are discussed  in Chapter 3.  The problems  associated with
particular pollutants or particular problem  areas  are introduced and
defined in Chapters 4-13.  In most  of these  chapters, problem defini-
tion is followed by a description and explanation  of national and
regional trends and a brief analysis of their implications for envi-
ronmental quality.  Chapters  5 and  9, on global atmospheric  pollution
and  marine pollution, emphasize the global dimension in  future envi-
ronmental problems.  Finally, Chapter 14 summarizes environmental
problems associated with energy.

-------
                                        LABORATORY
                                        OUTPUT PLANS
               FIGURE 1-2
R&D PLANNING AND THE BUDGET PROCESS

-------
                            CHAPTER 2
                            APPROACH
2.1  INTRODUCTION

     As stated in Chapter 1, the purpose of this Environmental Out-
look report is to provide useful information on future environmental
trends and problems for research and development planning.   The over-
all approach, described briefly in this chapter, is a product of our
attempt to meet the needs of the persons responsible for preparing
the Agency's annual Research Outlook report and the members of the 13
Research Committees who prepare ORD1 s research strategy documents, to
the greatest possible extent within the limitations of our  current
strategic analysis capabilities.

     The interdisciplinary team preparing this report has used a
variety of formal and informal models and analytical methods to pro-
duce both quantitative and qualitative results.  Several different
versions of chapters drafted by that team have been submitted for re-
view to persons who worked on the Research Outlook 1980 report, devel-
op the Research Committee strategies, and have regulatory program
responsibilities.  This review process is intended to produce a high
quality, credible report which meets the needs of the persons it is
intended to serve.

     At present, the principal forecasting tool available to the
Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies is the Strategic
Environmental Assessment System (SEAS).  This system, which was used
extensively in Chapters 4 (Air Pollutants), 6 (Water Pollutants), 10
(Solid and Hazardous Wastes), and 14 (Energy and the Environment), is
limited to projecting the quantities of selected pollutants and
wastes which would be produced by various industries given a set of
macroeconomic, demographic, energy, and environmental assumptions.
Projections and analyses from other sources were used to (l) extend,
supplement, and evaluate the SEAS projections when they were used,
and (2) provide future environmental trends and problems information
for pollutants and problems not covered by SEAS.

     Our intent has been to go beyond a SEAS analysis to a "strategic
environmental assessment" approach.  However, since SEAS is the only
formal model used in more than one chapter, it receives more atten-
tion here.  The approach, data, and methods used in non-SEAS analyses
vary among pollutants and problems, and they are described where ap-
propriate in Chapters 3-14.  In the remainder of this chapter, SEAS,
the two SEAS scenarios, and how both SEAS and non-SEAS projections
were analyzed are described.  More details are provided in each chap-
ter and in Appendices A and B.  An attempt has been made to provide

-------
sufficient information about assumptions, data  quality,  data  gaps,
and results to permit the reader to make an  independent  evaluation  of
our results.

     A final introductory point warrants special  emphasis.  The envi-
ronmental trends presented in this report are,  at best,  rough approx-
imations.  Like all forecasts, our trend projections  are a  product  of
a variety of factors, including assumptions, data quality,  and the
models and methods used.  Every effort has been made  to  be  reason-
able, thorough, systematic, and comprehensive,  but, as stated earli-
er, Environmental Outlook 1980 is the  first  major step toward
achieving the objectives set for the annual  Environmental Outlook
report, and much remains to be done.

2.2  THE SEAS MODEL

     SEAS, originally developed by EPA and now  maintained jointly by
EPA and the Department of Energy, is an  interactive computer  model
which functions via a set of energy, economic,  regional, and  environ-
mental modules.  The system is shown graphically  in a simplified flow
diagram, illustrated in Figure 2-1.
ENKRCIY
DEMAND
MODULES


Energy Network
SimiiLdtor
(Ki onomu
As sump t ions
(Environmental I   h^«^^fc
Assumpt ions    V   r
Et ononu
Modules
                                                            Envi ronmentnl
                                                            F.ffects
                                                            Expected
                                                            Under Sienar10
                             FIGURE 2-1
          A FLOW DIAGRAM OF THE SEAS COMPUTER MODEL
      The  energy  and  economic  modules  simulate energy consumption and
 economic  activity  to the year 2000;  the regionalization modules
 separate  these energy/economic data  into various regional divisions
 and  activity  levels; the environmental modules then project the
                                  10

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environmental pollution  and  resource requirements associated with
these levels of activity.
     Included among  the environmental factors which SEAS can project
are criteria air pollutants,  trace elements released to air, conven-
tional water pollutants,  solid waste, and land and water use.  The
system can also project certain  data regarding labor requirements and
occupational health  and safety hazards.   These projections can be
reported.at the national  level and for the 10 Federal Regions in
EPA's regional organization  (Figure 2-2).   They can also be repor-
ted for Air Quality  Control  Regions (AQCR), Standard Metropolitan
Statistical Areas  (SMSA),  and other geographic regions.
                                                        FEDERAL REGIONS

                                                        New England
                                                        New York-New Jersey
                                                        Middle Atlantic
                                                        Southeast
                                                        Great Lakes
                                                        South Central
                                                        Central
                                                        Mountain
                                                        West
                                                        Northwest
                                                   PUERTO RICO
                                                   VIRGIN ISLANDS
                             FIGURE 2-2
                   MAP OF THE FEDERAL REGIONS

     SEAS results take the form of economic projections (e.g., the
aggregate value of goods  and  services produced in each sector of the
economy, the unemployment  rate,  or the components of Gross National
Product) and environmental projections (e.g., the quantities of pol-
lution produced, expressed by pollutant type, industry, or groups of
industries, or as a  percentage  of total national pollution).
Ifhe EPA regions illustrated  in  Figure 2-2 are referred to as
 "Federal Regions" throughout this  report.
                                  11

-------
     The SEAS model generates two projections for most pollutants:
"gross" and "net."  Gross projections estimate the amount of pollu-
tant generated by industrial and other activities without regard to
any pollution control measures; in a sense, gross projections repre-
sent a "worst case."  Net projections, on the other hand, estimate
the amount of each pollutant that would be discharged to the environ-
ment if all wastes were cleaned enough to meet assumed pollution con-
trol regulations; thus, net projections represent a "best case."
Given the validity of other assumptions, pollutant discharges by most
sources would likely be somewhere bftween the SEAS gross and net
estimates.

2.3  THE HIGH AND LOW GROWTH SCENARIOS

     As noted earlier, two scenarios have been used to structure this
report generally and the SEAS analyses specifically.  The two repre-
sent alternative views of economic growth and environmental condi-
tions likely to develop between 1975 and 2000.  Economic growth
rates, employment trends, and population growth rates were taken from
estimates developed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau
of the Census.  Other necessary assumptions were specified, consis-
tent with the principal economic and environmental assumptions.

     The most important difference between the two scenarios is the
assumed rate of economic growth.  In the High Growth Scenario, the
U.S. Gross National Product (GNP)2 is assumed to increase at an
average growth rate of 3.5 percent per year (in constant 1971 dol-
lars) for the period 1975' to 2000.  In the Low Growth Scenario, the
assumed average growth rate is 2.6 percent per year.

     These scenarios were developed to provide a reasonable range of
future conditions within which to structure our analysis.  The High
Growth Scenario probably overestimates future economic growth, and
the Low Growth rate is probably less than the U.S. economy will actu-
ally achieve.

     The  following paragraphs briefly explain only those assumptions
most important to understanding how future environmental conditions
would differ from the present under the two scenarios.  Further
detail on these assumptions is provided in Appendix B.  The assump-
tions are discussed in the following order:
^Gross National Product is defined as the money value of all final
 goods and services produced in a year.  The main components of GNP
 are personal and private domestic investments, government purchas-
 ing and exports.
                                 12

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        o  Economic growth

        o  Population growth

        o  Energy supply and demand

        o  Environmental regulation

Some of the most important of these assumptions are listed in Table
2-1.  The environmental implications of future reliance on different
energy sources (e.g., coal, oil, nuclear) can be significant, so the
supply and demand assumptions for various forms of energy are given
particular attention.

2.3.1  Economic Growth

     The GNP growth rates used in each scenario are illustrated in
Figure 2-3.  The GNP difference between the two scenarios in 2000
would be $565 billion at the assumed economic growth rates.  Most of
this difference comes from expected changes in personal consumption,
with some additional difference resulting from growth in government
purchases, which, in turn, are influenced by population growth.

     The High Growth rate of 3.5 percent per year was derived from
an unpublished estimate by the Office of Economic Growth, Bureau of
Labor Statistics.^  By comparison, actual GNP growth in the United
States averaged 3.2 percent per year between 1946 and 1975,^ and
other projections of future economic growth range around 3 percent
per year.^  The Low Growth rate of 2.6 percent per year was chosen
to represent a slower rate of economic growth.

2.3.2  Population Growth

     Because high economic growth is assumed to be related to high
population growth, population is projected to increase more rapidly
in the High than in the Low Growth Scenario (an average 0.8 percent
per year, compared to 0.6 percent).  These growth rates were selected
from a series of projections made by the U.S. Bureau of the
       on a special run of the BLS input-output model for the U.S.
 Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development,
 April 1978.  The same source provided other key demographic esti-
 mates, such as household size, labor force size, and unemployment
 rates.
^U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Survey
 of Current Business, January 1976, November 1978, and April 1978.
-*Based on an informal survey of major economic research organiza-
 tions, recorded in SEAS Memo 170, dated January 9, 1979.

                                   13

-------
                              TABLE 2-1
                   PRINCIPAL SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
High Growth
GNP Growth, 1975-20003 3.5
(percent per year)
Population Growth Ratea 0.8
(percent per year)
Total Energy Supply, 2000 124
(quadrillion Btu)
Energy Supply Growth Rate3 2.1
(percent per year)
Coal Supply, 2000 35
(percent of all energy supply)
World Oil Priceb 39.53
($1971/barrel)
Growth in Oil Imports3 0.2
(percent per year)
Growth in Gas Imports3 1.1
(percent per year)
Low Growth
2.6
0.6
105
1.5
31
59.30
-1.2
4.2
3A11 growth rates are expressed as the average for 1975 to 2000.
bThis price is first reached in 1985.

NOTE:  See Appendix B (Table B-10) for SEAS environmental regulation
       assumptions.
                                 14

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   3,000
H I-
CJ TO
o o
B! D
a.
c
*-* Uj
t- o

Z M
  C
t/5 O
in -H
O ^H
Oi '-I
O -H
  pa
   2,000
    1,000
          1,141
                                                      2,734
                                                      2,169
            1975
                                                   2000
                           1985     1990

                       FIGURE 2-3

ASSUMED GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT INCREASE IN HIGH

             AND LOW GROWTH SCENARIOS
     275
     250
  in

  O
  EJ  225
  z
  M

  z
  o
     200
  (X
  o
    150
          213
                                                    262
                                                   245
           _L
                           _L
                                 J_
           1975            1985     1990

                        FIGURE 2-4

          ASSUMED TRENDS IN U.S. POPULATION

                         1975-2000
                                                2000
                            15

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Census."  The resulting projections  of  population are  shown  in
Figure 2-4.  Under the two scenarios, population would differ  by
about 15 million persons in 2000;  this  is about  6 percent  of  the  High
Growth Scenario population in 2000.

     Although population is assumed  to  increase  gradually  in  all
Federal Regions in both scenarios,  the  portion of the  national total
represented by each region would change slightly.  This reflects  an
assumed shift in population growth to the southeast, south central,
and western United States (Federal Regions IV, VI,  and IX), while the
population in most other regions would  grow either at  the  national
average rate or slower.  As shown in Figure 2-5,  these shifts  would
not be extreme.  However, more than  one-fourth of the  increase of 47
million persons in the High Growth Scenario between 1975 and  2000
would occur in the southeast United  States (Federal Region IV).   An
additional 15 percent each would occur  in the south central and west-
ern United States (Federal Regions VI and IX).   Table  2-2  shows the
regional increases assumed in each scenario.
                                                        ENGLAND
                                                     Change in Share of
                                                     U.S. Total 1975-2000
                                                     High Growth Scenario
                                                             +2%
                             FIGURE 2-5
     CHANGE IN PERCENT OF TOTAL U.S. POPULATION, BY REGION
                      HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                             1975-2000
 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current
 Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 310, 1977.

                                 16

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                                                      TABLE  2-2
                                            REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH
                                                      1975-2000
                                                                                 2000
1975

IV.
IX.
VI.
V.
III.
X.
I.
II.
VIII.
VII.

Federal Region
Southeast
West
South Central
Great Lakes
Middle Atlantic
Northwes t
New England
New York-New Jersey
Mount a in
Central
Totalb
Popula t ion
(millions )
35
25
22
45
24
7
12
25
6
11
213


Percent of Increase
Total (millions)
16
12
H)
21
11
3
G
1?
i
5
100
13
3
8
5
4
1
2
1
7
1
47
High Growth


Low Growth
Percent o£
Percent of Total Increase Increase Percent of
Total 1975-2000 (millions) Total
IS
13
11
19
11
3
5
10
3
5
100
28
16
16
11
a
5
)
4
4
2
100
9
5
5
4
3
1
2
1
1
1
32
18
12
11
20
U
3
6
11
3
5
100

Percent of
Total Increase
1975-2000
27
17
14
13
8
5
5
5
4
2
100
In descending order of projected growth.
Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.

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2.3.3  Energy Supply and Demand

     The future use of energy in all forms will greatly affect pollu-
tant emissions.  For this reason, a number of detailed energy supply
and use assumptions were incorporated into the scenarios.^

     Total energy supply would expand at 2.1 percent per year under
High Growth conditions and 1.5 percent per year in the Low Growth
Scenario.  Most of this growth would be achieved by burning coal,
increasing nuclear electricity generation, and recovering oil from
western oil shales.

     The projected use of energy by transportation, residential, com-
mercial, industrial, and export activities is shown in Figure 2-6.
Overall, the demand for energy by these activities would increase in
the High Growth Scenario by 60 percent between 1975 and 2000, from
about 50 quads to 85 quads per year..  The comparable increase in the
Low Growth Scenario would be about 33 percent, rising to a demand of
70 quads in 2000.

2.3.4  Environmental Regulation

     The laws and regulations for controlling major sources of pollu-
tion in the United States are summarized in Chapter 3, and the major
recent laws and regulations are discussed in Appendix B.  They are
the same for both scenarios and are explained in greater detail in
the introductions to Chapters 4-13.  Their effects on SEAS projec-
tions of pollutant discharges are discussed in chapters presenting
such projections and in Appendix B.

2.4  ANALYSIS OF TRENDS

     SEAS projections of the quantities of pollutants that would be
present in untreated wastestreams are referred to as "gross" genera-
tion of pollutants.  "Net" emission of pollutants, on the other hand,
refer to the quantities that would be released to the environment
based on the application of assumed control technologies that meet
applicable standards.  For those pollutants covered by SEAS, pollu-
tant projections were estimated for each scenario for the years 1975,
1985, 1990, and 2000.  To produce these projections, economic projec-
tions were made for each year from 1975 to 2000.

     In analyzing SEAS results, pollution trends for the nation and
for each of the Federal Regions were identified and compared.  Indus-
try by industry trends were also examined to attempt to identify the
causes of any changes over the period from 1975 to 2000.
'These assumptions are described in greater detail in Appendix A
 and in Chapter 14.

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2000
High


10
Tran spor ta t ion
Residential
Commerc ial
Industrial
Exports
Totalb
Growth


Btu
18
10
7
16
2
53
1975
Percent of
Total
34
19
14
30
3
100
                                                       2000
                                                    Low Growth
                                                    2000
                                   High Growth Scenario
                                            Percent of
                                              Total
                     Low Growth Scenario
1015 Btu
                                     23
                                     12
                                     13
                                     35
                                      2
                                     85
             27
             14
             15
             42
             3
            100
1015 Btu
   16
   13
   11
   29
   2

   70
Percent of
  Total

    23
    18
    15
    41
     3
   100
Includes demand for oil and natural gas as chemical feedstocks.
Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.


                               FIGURE 2-6
               MAJOR ENERGY DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS
                                   19

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     Our analyses highlight the change from 1975 to 2000.  Intermedi-
ate year projections are discussed only when they have some special
significance, such as showing a break in a trend or reflecting the
imposition of a new standard.  The emphasis is on net releases, rath-
er than gross pollutant generation—although,  as explained earlier,
actual quantities released to the environment  are likely to fall be-
tween these two values.

     Once these initial analyses were completed, we sought the under-
lying causes of trends that had been identified, and analyzed what
these trends might imply about future environmental quality.  The
discussion of environmental implications is preliminary.  A major
emphasis will be placed on making these analyses more complete and
comprehensive in future reports.

     The discussions of SEAS projections describe data quality and
gaps, and identify model characteristics that  affect results.  If
other projections were available, SEAS projections were compared to
them.  In every case, an attempt is made to provide as complete and
reliable projections as possible, taking care  to note and interpret
the implications of any problems of comparability which might exist.
In all cases, the results should be read as approximations; they are
not intended to be an attempt to predict the future.

     Because of differences in data availability and quality, the
chapters which follow vary considerably in their depth and detail.
Despite these limitations, Environmental Outlook 1980 has established
a baseline of information from which we can proceed in succeeding
editions to detailed, problem-oriented studies of the environmental
future.
                                 20

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                            CHAPTER 3
                       SOCIETAL TRENDS
                       HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 3

o  Public support for environmental protection  measures  has  steadily
   increased since 1970.   During the 1979 "gasoline  crisis," the  pub-
   lic indicated support  for slowing down,  but  not  abandoning,
   efforts to achieve environmental goals in order  to decrease  depen-
   dence on foreign energy sources.  But basic  support for environ-
   mental protection apparently remains strong.

o  Legislative trends reveal that vigorous  efforts  are being made to
   implement and enforce  environmental  laws while simultaneously  min-
   imizing regulatory impacts on energy and the  economy..

o  Environmental problems have received considerable attention  inter-
   nationally.  Progress  includes establishment  of  new international
   organizations and a range of bilateral agreements as  well as the
   addition of environmental programs in existing organizations,
   such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Organiza-
   tion for Economic Cooperation and Development.

o  In economically developed countries  other than the United States,
   environmental programs are being institutionalized and steady
   progress is being made to control point  source air and water pol-
   lutants.  In contrast, many developing countries  have  thus far not
   addressed the dilemma  between the need to meet basic  human needs
   and to protect a seriously deteriorating environment.

3.1  INTRODUCTION

     Among the various factors that will shape  our  environmental
future, most relate to human activities.  Several major  "determi-
nants" of environmental quality and change  are  discussed  briefly  in
this chapter, and trends  in public perceptions  and  governmental poli-
cies concerning environmental quality are outlined.   The  trends pre-
sented here, unlike those described in  the  remaining chapters,  are
oriented to the past rather than the future.

3.2  GENERAL DETERMINANTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL  QUALITY  AND CHANGE

     The environment is constantly changing. Those  changes  not
resulting from human efforts to control the environment  are  usually
continuous, evolutionary, slow, and largely predictable.  In con-
trast, human attempts to  farm, domesticate, produce, manufacture,
conquer, defend, and even to protect the environment, seem to have

                                  21

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more potential for producing discontinuous, significant changes,
either deliberately or by accident.

     Natural changes of sudden global significance are rare.  In the
absence of intervention, the genetic diversity and distribution of
established species assure gradual change and continuous production
of "renewable natural resources."  Intervention by humans or nature
can change this; for example, the income of solar energy evidences
some cyclical variation that affects climate, but over the next two
decades, striking climatic changes due to natural processes are not
expected.

     Individual floods, hurricanes, and volcanic eruptions cause
environmental changes, most of which are localized and short-lived.
Exceptions inevitably arise; for example, there is evidence that ash
from the volcanic eruption on Krakatoa in 1883 had global climatic
significance.^  However, ash-producing eruptions or other natural
events of this magnitude are rare.

     Most of the trends discussed in this Outlook account for the
effects of human activities by extrapolating from the present.  In
particular, the SEAS computer model described in Chapter 2 explicitly
includes projected  technological change from both existing and  anti-
cipated technologies and compliance with current environmental  regu-
lations.  These projections do not anticipate what, if any, changes
might  take place in public values and attitudes toward the environ-
ment,  nor do they  forecast future changes in governmental policies.
However, both kinds of  changes might well alter the environmental
outlook.  Consequently, the discussion in this chapter includes
trends  in both public perceptions and governmental policies.

3.3  PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS

3.3.1   Development  of Concern for the Environment

     A number of direct and  indirect indicators can give a general
sense  of public perceptions, opinions, and  attitudes  concerning the
environment and environmental quality.  These indicators may  include
the  formation and  activities of  environmental interest groups,
results  of public  opinion polls, responses  to books which promote
environmental values  or sound an environmental alarm,  and enactment
of legislation  and regulations  to protect  and improve environmental
quality.  None  of  these,  either  separately  or in  combination,  is  an
 ^''Inadvertent Climate Modification,"  in Report  of  the  Study of
  Man's Impact on Climate,  MIT Press,  Cambridge,  1971,  pp.  279-283,
                                   22

-------
altogether  satisfactory  indicator; however, they all show, to some
degree, how the public and its  leaders  feel about the environment.

     The  list of significant environmental events presented in Table
3-1 illustrates several  changes in our  attitudes toward the environ-
ment.  From the 1870s into the  1930s, the major emphasis was on con-
serving natural resources.  Over the past four decades, the focus has
been more on achieving public health benefits of clean water and
clean air.  Most recently, the  government has responded to a growing
awareness that human activities can produce irreversible environ-
mental damage, and has taken steps to combat the causes of such
damage.

     Opposition to the misuse of natural resources was at the heart
of the conservation movement, which was spearheaded by a number of
privately funded conservation organizations.  Their common objective
was the appropriate use  of natural resources.  However, they shared
neither common concepts  nor definitions of appropriate use.  For
some, conservation meant environmental management (e.g., scientific
forestry, or damming and channeling of rivers), and for others,
conservation was equated with preservation.

     The conservation debate continues  today, and it still focuses on
such things as dams and  wilderness areas.  For example, Congress was
sharply divided in reaching its decision to exempt the Tellico Dam
project on  the Little Tennessee River from the provisions of the
Endangered  Species Act;  open public conflict has been evident as the
U.S. Forest Service has moved to implement President Carter's direc-
tive to prepare wilderness proposals for areas east of the
Rockies;2 and public participation in the Roadless Area Review and
Evaluation  process has often generated acrimonious debate.^

     Another early theme still very much in evidence is public
health.  The recognition that urban environments were associated with
air and water pollution  and rapid spread of infectious disease gener-
ated strong public support for the public health initiatives of the
late nineteenth century.  The construction of the Panama Canal in the
early 1900s taught Americans the importance of sanitation in control-
ling diseases—in this instance, yellow fever.  The Panama Canal epi-
sode illustrates an early Federal public health effort; however, most
government public health action at that time was at the state level
and focused on preventing disease by such measures as providing safe
drinking water.
2Carter, J. ,  Message to the Congress of the United States, The
 White House, May 23, 1977.
-'"Sharp Division Remains on Establishment of Wilderness Areas,"
 Addison Independent, Middlebury, Vermont, July 19, 1979.
                                  23

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                             TABLE 3-1
                      A SELECTIVE LIST OF U.S.
                   ENVIRONMENTAL EVENTS, 1872-1979
Date                             Event

1872    First National Park (Yellowstone) established

1875    American Forestry Association founded

1892    Sierra Club founded

1897    National Forests established (Act of June 4, 1897)

1908    President Roosevelt held White House Governors' Conference
        on Conservation

1912    Public Health Service Act passed (PL 62-265)

1933    President Roosevelt's "New Deal" created Civilian Conserva-
        tion Corps

1939    Soil Conservation Service built more than $300 million in
        sewage treatment projects

1947    Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act
        (PL 80-104) passed

1948    First national water pollution control legislation passed:
        Water Pollution Control Act (PL 80-845)

        Donora, Pennsylvania, air pollution disaster

1955    First national air pollution control legislation passed:
        Air Pollution Control-Research and Technical Assistance
        Act (PL 84-159)

1962    Rachel Carson's Silent Spring published

1963    Clean Air Act (PL 88-206) passed

1964    Wilderness Act (PL 88-577) passed

1965    Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Control Act (Amendments to Clean
        Air Act) (PL 89-272) passed

                             (continued)

                                  24

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                         TABLE 3-1 CONTINUED
Date                             Event

1966    Federal Court ruling in the Storm King case granted standing
        to environmental groups and recognized injuries to aesthetic
        and conservationist values

1969    Santa Barbara oil blowout

        Endangered Species Conservation Act (PL 91-135) passed

        National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (PL 91-190) passed

1970    President Nixon presented first Presidential Message on
        the Environment to Congress

        In Wilderness Society v. Hickel, it was ruled that the
        Alaska pipeline required an environmental impact statement,
        and construction was suspended

        Earth Day initiated

        Environmental Protection Agency created (Reorganization
        Plan No. 3)

1972    UN Conference on the Environment held in Stockholm

        Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act (PL 92-532)
        passed

1973    Arab oil embargo

1974    Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act (PL 93-319)
        passed

        Congress approved Alaska pipeline over environmentalist
        objections, suspending earlier court rulings

        Safe Drinking Water Act (PL 93-523) passed

1976    Toxic Substances Control Act (PL 94-469) passed

        Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (PL 94-580) passed


                             (continued)

                                  25

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                         TABLE 3-1  CONCLUDED
Date                             Event
1977    Major amendments to Clean Air Act (PL 95-95)  passed

        Water Pollution Control Act (Clean Water Act,  PL 95-217)
        passed

1978    Major energy legislation (PL 95-617,  -618,  -619, -620,  -621)
        passed

1979    President Carter ordered consideration of environmental
        effects abroad of major Federal actions (Executive Order
        No. 12114)
Source:  Adapted from Mitchell,  R.C. and J.C.  Davies,  III,  "The
         United States Environmental Movement  and Its  Political Con-
         text:  An Overview," Discussion Paper D-32,  Resources for
         the Future, Washington, D.C.,  May 1978.
                                  26

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     The Federal government initiated the steps that have given it a
leading role in improving environmental quality in more general terms
in 1948, with passage of the comprehensive Water Pollution Control
Act (PL 80-845).  In 1955, it followed with the Air Pollution Con-
trol, Research and Technical Assistance Act (PL 84-159).  These Fed-
eral actions coincided with a growing public awareness of increas-
ingly serious water and air pollution problems.

     Sometimes a single individual plays an important role in calling
attention to a problem needing public action, as Rachel Carson did in
1962 with publication of Silent Spring.  This catalytic event ushered
in a new era of environmental awareness.  Carson's message was that
overuse of chlorinated hydrocarbon pesticides (such as DDT) was lead-
ing to concentration of residues in birds' tissues, as these pesti-
cides moved up the food chain.  She pointed to dire reproductive
effects and argued that DDT was poisoning the environment.

     Rachel Carson, and those mobilized by her work, raised the pub-
lic's environmental consciousness.  Numerous organizations arose,
including environmental law firms, and special celebrations such as
Earth Day were held.  In fact, the ensuing period might well be
labeled "the decade of the environment."

     What led to the changes of public perception epitomized by a
"decade of the environment"?  While specific causes are difficult to
establish, it is possible to identify categories of causes.  Problems
can achieve public prominence and receive priority treatment by
government as a consequence of singular events, such as the 1948 air
pollution disaster in Donora, Pennsylvania, and the 1969 oil blowout
in the Santa Barbara Channel.  Pervasive environmental changes, such
as the "death" of Lake Erie, smog in Los Angeles, or the red skies of
Gary, Indiana, provide visible evidence that all is not well with the
environment.  Shortages of resources, such as gasoline in 1973 and
1979, and natural gas in the winter of 1976, attract everyone's
attention.

     It is clear that the public and its leaders often respond to a
single occurrence, particularly if it is sufficiently dramatic and
visibly affects people, animals, or plants.  An occurrence with less
immediate or apparent impact upon individuals may also bring about
change, if its effects are persistent.  It seems that ordinary citi-
zens are "risk averse"^ and will respond to clearly perceived
risks.                                    »
^Ashford, N., comments at Congress/Science Forum on Risk/Benefit
 Analysis:  Its Role in Congressional Science and Technology Policy
 Decisions, Rayburn House Office Building, July 24, 1979.
                                  27

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3.3.2  Trends in Public Opinion

     A more direct way of evaluating change in public attitudes and
values is through public opinion polls.  Only for the last 15 years
have polls attempted to determine the public's environmental con-
cerns.  In a 1965 poll, when George Gallup asked which of 10 national
problems should be given most attention, "reducing pollution of air
and water" ranked ninth, but in an April 1970 poll this problem
ranked second.-*  An obvious question is whether this change reflec-
ted temporarily heightened concern in response to Santa Barbara,
Earth Day, or some other event, or whether it indicated a more funda-
mental shift in environmental values.

     Analyses of data from polls taken after 1970 generally indicate
a steady growth in strong public support for measures to improve
environmental quality.  By August 1975, Opinion Research Corporation
was advising its business clients that even under the pressures of
recession, high unemployment, and rising fuel costs, the public's
support for the environment remained undaunted.  In analyzing the
results of this poll, ORC emphasized that "the opinions of people at
all levels of society indicate that environmental protection has
become a relentless, institutionalized, mass movement with the poten-
tial to change the future course of industrial history.""

     In 1977, Opinion Research Corporation refined its analysis, not-
ing that fewer respondents were finding pollution a serious problem
where they lived.^  However, the pollsters concluded that the
public was unwilling to risk losing any gains and continued to sup-
port improving and protecting environmental quality.  This finding is
tempered somewhat by the responses to a question which asked whether
greatly reducing air and water pollution is more important than
expanding industrial production and jobs:  42 percent said the latter
was more important; 29 percent said that reducing pollution was more
important; and 18 percent said that both were important."  Even in
^Mitchell, R., "Environment:  An Enduring Concern," Resources,
 Vol. 57, January-March 1978, p. 1.
^Opinion Research Corporation, "Public Attitudes Toward Environ-
 mental Tradeoffs," Public Opinion Index, Vol. 33, August 1975.
 Based on a national probability sample of 1,222 persons age 18 and
 older, conducted between May 30 and June 22, 1975.
^Opinion Research Corporation, "Public Attitudes Toward Air and
 Water Pollution," Public Opinion Index, Vol. 35, February 1977.
 Based on a national probability sample of 1,003 persons age 18 and
 older, conducted between January 7 and January 14, 1977.
8Ibid, p. 16.  The question asked was:  "In order to really cut
 down pollution from the current levels, some companies may have  to
 reduce their growth, meaning less production and fewer jobs.  Do you
 think now it is more important to greatly reduce air and water pol-
 lution, or more important to expand industrial production and jobs?"

                                28

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this case, a majority (53 percent) said that, in areas where air
quality is currently better than required under national standards,
air quality should be maintained.   Opinion Research Corporation
concluded that, in 1977, a majority of the public took a reasonable,
balanced view while remaining committed to protecting the environ-
ment.

     Perhaps a more important reference point for future environ-
mental values is how environmental concerns have fared in the face of
challenges such as Proposition 13, the energy crisis, and protracted
"stagflation."  Results from national surveys conducted through 1978
show that:

     o  More than half (52 percent) of those who feel taxes to be
        "very unreasonable" feel that continuing improvements made to
        protect the environment must be made "regardless of
        cost."10

     o  Almost half of those polled (45 percent, a plurality) feel
        that the "toughest environmental standards possible" should
        be enforced "even if they increased the cost of things to
        both business and the consumer."11

     o  By 47 percent to 31 percent, the public feels that "protect-
        ing the environment" is more important than "producing
        energy."12

     In September and October 1978, Opinion Research Corporation con-
ducted a national survey of 102 "Washington thoughtleaders" and com-
pared their opinions with those of the "public."    The "thought-
leaders" interviewed included legislators, regulatory and other
 ^Thirty-eight percent said standards should be" relaxed.
10Mitchell, R. C., "The Public Speaks Again:  A New Environmental
  Survey," Resources, Vol. 60, September-November 1978, p. 4.
^Harris, L., ABC News-Harris Survey, released January 4, 1979.
12Mitchell, R. C., "The Public Speaks Again:  A New Environmental
  Survey," Resources, Vol. 60, September-November 1978, p. 3.
  Opinion Research Corporation, "Attitudes of Washington Thought-
  leaders Toward the Future Availability and Use of the Nation's
  Basic Resources and Materials, Public Opinion Index, Vol. 37,
  Mid-February 1979.  Public responses are from a national probabil-
  ity sample of 1,002 persons age 18 and older.  Individuals inter-
  viewed in the "thoughtleader" study are not representative of any
  particular group but should be considered "purposive" samples of
  people prominent and highly influential in regard to governmental
  affairs.
                                 29

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government officials, union leaders, public interest group leaders,
and media representatives.  The responses made by "thoughtleaders"
and the "public" to statements about environmental protection and
economic growth are compared in Figure 3-1.  Clearly, in the fall of
1978, the "public," unlike the "thoughtleaders," did not believe that
environmental protection and economic growth could be achieved at the
same time.  Also, by their responses, the public showed that it con-
sidered environmental protection so important that it might also
accept slower economic growth in order to protect the environment.

     The "gasoline crisis" in the summer of 1979 seems to have caused
a shift in public opinion, especially when energy and environmental
goals appear to be in conflict.  A Harris poll conducted in July, at
the height of the crisis, found that, by a 56-36 percent margin,
respondents were willing to ease environmental restrictions to lessen
dependence on foreign oil.^  An even larger majority, 69-25 per-
cent, was willing to pay more for synthetic fuels than for oil from
foreign sources.I^  This survey was conducted before President
Carter announced his energy plans.  An Opinion Research Corporation
poll taken in early August, after the President announced his syn-
fuels program, found the public divided (41 percent yes, 42 percent
no) on the question of whether a massive program to develop alterna-
tive sources of fuel would be likely to lead to serious environmental
problems.  Of the 42 percent who believed serious environmental risks
were likely to be encountered, 58 percent believed that the risk was
worth taking to reduce the nation's dependence on foreign oil.-'-"

     Both ABC News-Harris Survey and Opinion Research Corporation
analysts recommend caution in interpreting these findings; the find-
ings seem to represent a change in perceptions.  That is, a majority
of the public no longer believes that we can achieve all of our
energy and environmental goals simultaneously.  Becoming less depen-
dent on insecure foreign energy sources has become more important
during this most recent period of energy shortages.  However, both
ABC-Harris and Opinion Research analysts see this shift in public
opinion as willingness to slow the pace of, but not to forego,
achieving our environmental quality goals.  Apparently, public con-
cern for the environment remains firmly established.
          L., ABC News-Harris Survey, released August 14, 1979.
  Based on a nation-wide telephone survey of 1,496 adults conducted
  between July 17 and 21, 1979.
15Ibid.
•'•"Personal communication, Kenneth Schwartz, Vice President and
  Managing Director, Opinion Research Corporation Public Opinion
  Index.  Based on telephone interviews of 1,010 persons of 18 years
  and older conducted between August 2 and 5, 1979.
                                  30

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 Total
 Thoughtleaders
    (102)
 Total Public
   (1,002)
                  "We must  accept a slower
                  rate of economic growth
                  in order  to  protect our
                  environment."
                  (percent agree)
23
                                 58
                     "We must relax
                     environmental
                     standards in
                     order to achieve
                     economic growth."
                     (percent agree)
27
                          20
             "We can achieve our
             current national goals
             of environmental
             protection and economic
             growth at the same time."
             (percent agree)
                  18
50
"No opinion" omitted

 "Here are three statements about environmental protection  and  economic growth,
 Please tell me which  statement you agree with the most."

Source:  Adapted from  Opinion Research Corporation,
         Public Opinion  Index. Vol. 37, Mid-February 1979,
         n.  6.   Used xvith permission.
                                          FIGURE 3-1
                   ATTITUDES TOWARD ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTIO  VERSUS
                                     ECONOMIC GROWTH3

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3.3.3  Organized Groups

     Organizations outside the government have long been active in
efforts to protect and improve public health and welfare.  Growing
worldwide environmental awareness has resulted in a rapid prolifer-
ation of environmental organizations and a broadening of activities
of long-established conservation organizations.

     Major U.S. environmental organizations founded before 1971 are
listed in Table 3-2.  In 1973, the Council on Environmental Quality
(CEQ) found that there were "...about twice as many" environmental
organizations as there were before Earth Day, 1970.^

     Recently, environmental organizations have  become important par-
ticipants in public policy making.  For example, U.S. courts have
affirmed the legal right of the public to argue  environmental ques-
tions in court, as provided by the National Environmental Policy Act
of 1969.  This has given impetus to establishing environmental law
firms, which, along with other environmental organizations, have
become increasingly involved in litigating environmental issues.

3.4.  U.S. LEGISLATION

3.4.1  Background Trends in Governmental Policies

     Since about 1950, at both national and state levels, there has
been a trend toward increased emphasis on developing legislation to
protect and improve environmental quality.  Nationally, this trend
began with the air and water quality control legislation mentioned
earlier.  Another important landmark was the National Environmental
Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969.

This Act established

     ...a national policy which will encourage productive and enjoy-
     able harmony between man and his environment; promote efforts
     which will prevent or eliminate damage to the environment and
     biosphere and stimulate the health and welfare of man; and en-
     rich the understanding of the ecological systems and natural
     resources important to the Nation.  (Section 2)

     Following NEPA, a succession of Congresses  enacted environmental
legislation, in some cases building on earlier legislation but also
1'Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality 1973,
  U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C., September 1973,
  p. 396.
                                  32

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                        TABLE  3-2
    AMERICAN  ENVIRONMENTAL  ORGANIZATIONS,
                 BY  DATE  OF  FOUNDING
                       (1870-1970)
Date                 Event

1870     American Fisheries Society

1875     American Forestry Association

]876     Appalachian Mountain Club

1892     Sierra Club

1900     Society of American Foresters

1905     National Audubon Society

1911     North American Wildlife Foundation

1915     Ecological Society of America

1917     Commission for the Preservation of Natural Conditions
         (forerunner of the Nature Conservancy)

1919     National Parks and Conservation Association

1922     Isaak Walton League

1925     Defenders of Wildlife

1932     National Reclamation Association

1935     The Wilderness Society

1936     National Wildlife Federation
         The Wildlife Society

1941     Soil Conservation Society of America

1946     Wildlife Management Institute

1947     Conservation Education Association

1948     The Conservation Foundation
         American Conservation Association

1950     The Nature Conservancy

1954     Citizens Committee on Natural Resources

1965     Citizens for Clean Air

1967     Environmental Defense Fund

1968     Center for Study of Responsive Law

1969     Friends of the Earth

1970     Natural Resources Defense Council
         Sierra Club Legal Defense Fund
         Environmental Action Coalition Concern, Inc.
                               33

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taking new initiatives.  These laws give tangible evidence of an
increased concern for the environment on the part of both the public
and the Congress.

     The following sections briefly examine the chronological devel-
opment of the Federal-state relationship in environmental legisla-
tion, outline the objectives and approaches of major legislation, and
look at recent regulatory actions as indicators of future trends.

3.4.2  The Federal-State Relationship

     The power to protect the environment was not specifically dele-
gated by the Constitution to the United States and, therefore, in
some measure was reserved to the states under the Tenth Amendment.
At the same time, Article One, Section Eight of the Constitution
specifically delegates to the Congress the power to provide for the
general welfare and to regulate interstate commerce.  These three
Constitutional principles serve as a starting point for a brief
analysis of the Federal-state relationship in environmental affairs,
particularly in the promulgation of laws to protect air quality.

     Air quality legislation illustrates how the Federal role has
evolved.  Although air quality problems were evident in the 1948
Donora, Pennsylvania, disaster and in recurring episodes in Los
Angeles, Pittsburgh, and other urban areas, it was seven years before
enactment of the first Federal response—the Air Pollution Control-
Research and Technical Assistance Act of 1955 (PL 84-159).  Even
then, the Congress did not claim legislative power in environmental
regulatory matters.  The Senate Committee on Public Works stated:

     The committee recognizes that it is the primary responsibility
     of State and local governments to prevent air pollution.  The
     bill does not propose any exercise of police power by the
     Federal Government and no provision in it invades the sovereign-
     ty of States, counties, or cities. There is no attempt to impose
     standards of purity.

The Congress did act, however, "...in recognition of the dangers to
the public health and welfare,... to preserve and protect the primary
responsibilities of the states and local governments in controlling
air pollution"19 aru} to aid technical research and state and local
18Senate Report 84-389, quoted in "1955 U.S. Code Congressional and
  Administrative News," 84th Congress—First Session, West Publishing
  Company, St. Paul, Minnesota, p. 2459.
19Ibid, p. 351.


                                 34

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governmental air pollution control agencies.  Protection of the
public health and welfare was to become a recurrent theme in subse-
quent Federal legislation.

     In  1963, in response to President Kennedy's charge "...to take
action to abate interstate air pollution,"^ the Congress expanded
the Federal role with passage of the Clean Air Act (PL 88-206).  This
Act directed Federal action on interstate air pollution through con-
ferences, public hearings, and ultimately, legal suits by the Attor-
ney General at the request of the Secretary of the Department of
Health, Education, and Welfare.  Two of the original Congressional
findings stated in the Act have become recurrent themes:

     ...that the predominant part of the Nation's population is loca-
     ted in...metropolitan...areas, which generally cross the bound-
     ary lines of local jurisdictions and often extend into two or
     more States,...

and

     ...that the prevention and control of air pollution at its
     source is the primary responsibility of States and local gov-
     ernments. 21

The Clean Air Act has retained these themes throughout all subsequent
amendments.  Therefore, Federal actions may respond directly to prob-
lems of an interstate nature, or to problems that the states-face in
meeting their responsibilities for air pollution control at the
source.

     In 1965,  another theme was added—national standards to protect
public health and welfare.  In the Motor Vehicle Air Pollution Con-
trol Act of 1965, the dominant theme was health and welfare, and
emission standards for new motor vehicles or engines were ordered.
The interstate commerce clause provided an important basis for this
Act.

     In the Air Quality Act of 1967, the focus on assistance to the
states was maintained, and consultation with the states was directed
in establishing air quality control regions.   However,  to protect the
public health and welfare, that Act required the Federal government
to develop and issue air quality criteria and the states to adopt
20"1963 U.S. Code Congressional and Administrative News," 88th
  Congress—First Session, West Publishing Company, St. Paul,
  Minnesota, p. 1262.
21Ibid, p. 433.
                                 35

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ambient air quality standards based on those criteria.  The Act also
required states to adopt regulatory measures to implement the ambient
standards.  Federal action was authorized in cases where state or
local action was inadequate to address interstate pollution problems.

     Finally, the 1970 amendments established a comprehensive Fed-
eral-state partnership to address air pollution problems.  This
included, for the first time, Federal establishment of national ambi-
ent air quality standards.  In short, by 1970, the Federal responsi-
bility to act in environmental matters to protect the public health
and welfare was definitely established.

3.4.3  Major Environmental Legislation—Objectives and Approaches

     In addition to its general goal of protecting the environment,
each piece of environmental legislation has specific objectives and
approaches for meeting those objectives.  Table 3-3 gives the objec-
tives of some of the major legislation and the stated means for
achieving them.

     Air Quality Legislation

     The first Federal legislation concerned exclusively with air
pollution (in 1955) authorized $5 million annually to the Public
Health Service of the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare
(HEW) for research, data collection, and technical assistance to
state and local governments.  The Clean Air Act of 1963 (PL 88-206)
provided grants to air pollution agencies for control programs and
provided Federal enforcement authority for interstate air pollution
problems.  The 1965 Amendments to the Clean Air Act (PL 89-272)
ordered national regulation of air pollution for new motor vehicles.
The Air Quality Act of 1967 established a regional approach, requir-
ing that the Secretary of HEW designate air quality control regions
and promulgate air quality criteria describing the harmful effects of
air pollutants.

     With the passage of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (PL
91-604), air quality management attained a national, no longer
regional, focus.  The Act required the Administrator of the newly
created Environmental Protection Agency to establish national ambient
air quality standards (NAAQS) as well as national emission standards
for significant new pollution sources and for all facilities emitting
hazardous substances.  However, states were left free to establish
stricter standards.  The Act also called for State Implementation
Plans (SIPs) under which the states, subject to approval by EPA1s
Administrator, set emission standards for existing sources to achieve
primary and secondary national air quality standards.  Primary
                                  36

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                                                                               TABLE  3-3
                     OBJECTIVES AND APPROACHES FOR CARRYING  OUT  OBJECTIVES  OF MAJOR ENVIRONMENTAL LEGISLATION
                  Environmental
               Component Affected
              Air Quality
Most Recent
Legislation
                                    Clean Air Act
                                    Amendments of 1977
                                    PL  95-95
OJ
-J
              Water Quality
Clean Water Act
of 1977
PL 95-217
Objectives  of Legislation
                    o Protect  and enhance quality of
                      air resources to promote
                      public health and welfare
                    o Establish national research
                      and development program for
                      prevention and control of air
                      pollution
                    o Provide  assistance to states
                      for air  pollution control
                      programs
                                                      Restore and maintain the  chemical,
                                                      physical, and biological  integrity
                                                      of  the nation's waters  by:
                                                       o Eliminating pollutant dis-
                                                         charge into navigable waters
                                                         by 1985
                                                       o Achieving water quality
                                                         suitable for protection and
                                                         propagation of aquatic life
                                                         and water recreation
                                                       o Prohibiting the discharge of
                                                         toxic pollutants in toxic
                                                         amounts
                                       Types of
                                   Pollutants Considered
  o Criteria  pollutants
      sulfur  dioxide
      particulates
      carbon  monoxide
      photochemical oxidants
      hydrocarbons
      nitrogen oxides
      lead
  o Hazardous air pollutants
      asbestos
      beryllium
      mercury
      vinyl chloride

Specified pollutants dis-
charged into  water
[502(6)] including:
  o Conventional pollutants
    (BOD, suspended solids,
    fecal coliform, and pH)
    [304(a)(4)J
  o Toxic pollutants (65)b
    [304(a)(c)J
  o Nonconventional pollutants
    (neither  of the above)
    [301(2)(F)]
                                Approach  and Requirements for
                                    Carrying Out Objectives
                                                                o National Ambient Air Quality Standards
                                                                 (NAAQS) [109]
                                                                o State Implementation Plans  (SIPs) [110]
                                                                o National Emission Standards for
                                                                 Hazardous Air Pollutants  (NESHAPs) [112]
                                                                o New Source Performance  Standards (NSPS)
                                                                 [111]
                                                                o Emission standards for  new  motor
                                                                 vehicles or motor vehicle engines [202]
                                                                o New Source Performance  Standards (NSPS)
                                                                 [306(b)(D]
                                                                o National Pollutant Discharge Elimina-
                                                                 tion System [NPDES]  [301(b)(2)l
                                                                o Combination of technology  standards
                                                                 (e.g., "best practicable control tech-
                                                                 nology," 1301(a)(l)(A)], effluent
                                                                 limitations (308), state water quality
                                                                 standards (303),  and toxic effluent
                                                                 standards [307(a)l
                                                                                  (Continued)

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                                                                   TABLE  3-3 CONCLUDED
          Environmental
       Component Affected
       Solid  Wastes
Most Recent
Legislation
oo
       Toxic  and  Hazar-
       dous Substances
       Pes t icides
                             Resource  Conserva-
                             tion  and  Recovery
                             Act of  1976
                             PL 94-580
Toxic Substances
Control Act of
1976
PL 94-469
                             Federal  Pesticide
                             Act  of  1978
                             PL 95-396
Objectives  of  Legislation
                     o Provide  technical  and  finan-
                       cial  assistance  for  the
                       development  of management
                       plans and  facilities for  the
                       recovery of  energy and valuable
                       materials  from solid waste
                     o Provide  for  the  safe disposal
                       of discarded  materials
                     o Regulate the  management of
                       hazardous  wastes
Regulate  commerce  and  protect
human health  and  the environment
by requiring  testing and use
restrictions  on  certain chemical
substances
                     To prevent  unreasonable
                     hazards  to  humans or the
                     environment.
                     (implicit)
                                       Types of
                                   Pollutants Considered
o Solid waste-discarded
  material from industrial,
  commercial, mining, and
  agricultural operations
  and from community
  activities [1004 (27)1
o Hazardous waste-solid
  waste or combination of
  solid wastes that may
  cause illness or pose a
  hazard to human health
  or the environment
  [1004(5)1

Chemical substances or
mixtures that present
or will present an unrea-
sonable risk of injury to
health or the environment
                                                                                    Pes t icides
Approach and Requirements for
 Carrying Out Objectives


o State plans for disposal of nonhazar-
  dous wastes [4006]
o Manifest system through which every
  load of hazardous waste material can be
  tracked from generation to uItimate
  disposal [3002(5)1
o Permit program to cover every hazardous
  waste disposal site [3005]
o Testing of chemical substances and mix-
  tures [4]
o Notification to EPA of manufacture of
  new chemical or new use for a chemical
  [5]
o Regulation of hazardous chemical sub-
  stances [6]

o Registration of pesticides and producers
o Classification for general use,
  restricted use, or denial  of registra-
  tion (unregistered pesticides may not
  be shipped, sold, or delivered)
o Certification of users of  restricted
  use pesticides
       aNumbers  in brackets  refer  to  Sections of applicable Acts.
       bNRDC  v.  Train,  No. 45-172,  8  ERC  2120, D.O.C., June 8, 1976.

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 standards are set at a level  to protect public health, and secondary
 standards, to protect welfare.

     Subsequently, NAAQS for  particulate matter, sulfur oxides, car-
 bon monoxide, photochemical oxidants,^^ hydrocarbons, and nitrogen
 oxides were promulgated by EPA, as required in the Act.  Standards
 for lead were added later.

     The 1970 Act mandated National Emission Standards for Hazardous
 Air Pollutants (NESHAPs), which have since been promulgated for as-
 bestos, beryllium, mercury, and vinyl chloride.  It also mandated New
 Source Performance Standards  (NSPS) for new and modified industrial
 plants.  These have been issued for 27 industrial categories, includ-
 ing industrial and electric utility boilers, smelters, and petroleum
 refining and storage.

     The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 (PL 95-95) primarily mod-
 ified existing programs rather than set new directions.  The policy
 of prevention of significant  deterioration (PSD) of air quality in
 clean air areas was made a detailed requirement of law rather than a
 generalized goal, as before.  In areas that fall short of primary air
 quality standards (non-attainment areas), the law was modified
 slightly to allow some industrial growth, but only if reasonable fur-
 ther progress is made towards attainment of clean air.  Auto emission
 standards were maintained, although they were somewhat modified and
 the deadlines were delayed by 2 or 3 years.

     The 1977 Amendments reaffirmed the land use directions taken in
 the 1970 Act, via the new source review provisions for PSD and non-
 attainment areas, while dropping all express reference to "land use."
 The Act continues to have a major air quality management scheme,
 through the State Implementation Plans23 ancj related permits, but
 it has also developed into a  control technology statute,  with Best
Available Control Technology required in PSD areas and Lowest Achiev-
 able Emission Rate required in non-attainment areas.
      photochemical oxidants standard was later replaced by an
  ambient ozone standard.  This should not be confused with
  protection of stratospheric ozone identified in Section 150 of the
  1977 CAA Amendments.
  A11 states were required to revise their SIP's by July 1, 1979,
  to conform to the 1977 Amendments.  By mid-September,  47 state
  plans had been submitted, but the sanction process against states
  whose plans are not approved is being exercised with restraint.
  EPA, "Environmental News," June 26, 1979.


                                   39

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     Major Federal involvement continues and takes a new form, with
growth and Federal funding restrictions in non-attainment areas, but
state primacy is still present in many ways.  Perhaps the most sub-
stantive deferral to the states is in the PSD program,  wherein most
clean areas start as Class II, but states can reclassify them to
Class I (pristine) or Class III (the heaviest industrial development
category) with only limited review by EPA.

     Finally, the 1977 Act continues one of the most unusual features
of the 1970 Act—the Congressional setting of numerical emission
standards for automobiles, and even extends this concept to trucks.

      Water Quality Legislation

     The first major law applying to water was the Rivers and Harbors
Act (or Refuse Act) of 1899, which prohibited solid discharges into
navigable rivers and harbors.  Initially designed to prevent obstruc-
tion of navigation, the Act was more recently interpreted as a
general environmental law.

     In 1948, the first comprehensive Federal legislation aimed spe-
cifically at water pollution control was passed.  The Water Pollution
Control Act (PL 80-845) authorized the Surgeon General to assist in
formulation of state and interstate plans and uniform state laws;
authorized research support; and permitted suits to be brought
against polluters, with the state's consent.

     These measures were made permanent in the Federal Water Pollu-
tion Control Act of 1956, which embodied the specifics of the 1948
Act.  It also authorized planning, technical assistance, grants for
state programs, and construction grants for municipal waste treatment
facilities.  Amendments in 1961 (PL 87-88) extended Federal enforce-
ment authority to interstate, navigable intrastate, and coastal
waters, and increased the funds authorized for construction grants.
This interstate authority was to become the model for President
Kennedy's clean air proposal of 1963.

     In 1965, further amendments to the Water Pollution Control Act
(PL 89-834) established the Federal Water Pollution Control Adminis-
tration as successor to a program previously handled by the Public
Health Service in the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.
The most important provisions in the 1965 Amendments called for the
establishment of water quality standards and implementation plans for
cleanup of all interstate and coastal waters.  The states were desig-
nated as the primary enforcers of water quality standards.

     In December 1970, President Nixon announced a new program to
control water pollution from industrial sources through the permit


                                  40

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authority of the Rivers and Harbors Act.  To obtain permits, indus-
trial dischargers had to disclose what and how much effluent they
intended to discharge, thus providing a more exact indication of the
nature and extent of industrial pollution.

     Water pollution legislation took a different direction with the
passage of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of
1972.  This Act extended Federal responsibilities to all U.S. waters,
establishing effluent limitations for various classes of discharges,
although the states still had implementation responsibilities.  The
Act's basic regulatory requirement is that point source dischargers—
industries, municipal treatment plants, and feedlots—must obtain
permits, must specify the quantity and composition of their efflu-
ents, and must establish schedules for achieving compliance.  The Act
marked a change from standards of ambient quality to effluent limits
as the basis for achieving water quality.  Also, identification of
non-point sources of pollution was initiated under the area-wide
waste treatment management plans, required by Section 208.  The Act
also set deadlines:  1977 for best practicable treatment (BPT), and
1983 for best available technology (BAT); and it set goals:  fish-
able, swimmable waters by 1983, and zero discharge by 1985.

     The Clean Water Act of 1977 (PL 95-217) modified the cleanup
deadlines of the 1972 Amendments, identified several new categories
of pollutants, and provided for establishment of new technology-based
standards.  For controlling "conventional" pollutants (biological
oxygen demand (BOD), suspended solids, fecal coliform, and pH), the
Clean Water Act requires "best conventional pollutant control tech-
nology."  For controlling toxic pollutants, it requires "best avail-
able technology economically achievable."^  Both are required by
July 1, 1984.  Under the Act, "nonconventional" pollutants that are
neither toxic nor "conventional," such as chemical oxygen demand,
dissolved solids, or oil and grease, must meet EPA-issued effluent
guidelines by July 1, 1987.  This Act also authorizes additional
regulations to require best management practices (BMP) to reduce
surface runoff from plant operations, although it does not directly
regulate non-point sources.

     Under the Clean Water Act, point source discharges are subject
to both Federal and state regulations.  States with qualified pro-
grams can take over the permit program of the National Pollutant
Discharge Elimination System (NPDES), as 32 states have done.  New
24-An initial list of 65 toxic pollutants and classes of pollutants
  derives from a 1976 settlement in U.S. District Court (D.C.
  Circuit) in the case of NRDC v. Train.  See Chapter 11 (11.2.4) for
  an expanded discussion.
                                  41

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Source Performance Standards have been issued for 31 industrial cate-
gories.  These standards define the level of pollution control re-
quired for new plants and require the greatest degree of effluent
reduction achievable through use of the best available control tech-
nology.  The NSPS are applied to individual plants through issuance
of NPDES permits.

     EPA may grant waivers of Best Available Control Technology
(BACT) for nonconventional pollutants, but not for toxic substances,
if an industry shows that:  (1) the best practicable control technol-
ogy standards will be met; (2) the waiver will not result in any
additional requirements on any other point or non-point source; and
(3) the waiver will not interfere with the attainment or maintenance
of fishable, swimmable water quality.

     Solid Waste Legislation

     Primary responsibility for solid waste disposal has traditional-
ly been vested in local authorities.  In 1965, the Federal government
assumed a significant supporting role with the passage of the Solid
Waste Disposal Act (PL 89-272).  This Act sought to conserve natural
resources by reducing waste and unsalvageable materials and by solid
waste recovery.  Under this Act, the Federal government is responsi-
ble for research, training, demonstrations of new technology, techni-
cal assistance, and grants for solid waste planning programs.

     In 1976, the Federal government's role was amplified with pas-
sage of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) (PL 94-
580).  This Act promotes resource recovery and conservation, and
mandates a system of manifests to ensure Federal government control
of hazardous waste, from generation to final disposal in facilities
for which permits are issued.  The Act requires a Federal or equiva-
lent state regulatory, inspection, and enforcement program in every
state.

     The Act directs the Administrator to set criteria for identify-
ing and listing hazardous wastes and for setting standards applicable
to generators, transporters, and disposers of hazardous wastes.  Each
person owning or operating a facility to treat, store, or dispose of
hazardous wastes must have a permit to operate.  Resource recovery
and waste reduction are indirectly affected, since cheap disposal
options will no longer be available.  Federal assistance is an incen-
tive for states to adopt adequate programs.  If a state fails to en-
act a program, the law empowers EPA to promulgate one.

     Regulations for implementing the Resource Conservation and
Recovery Act are now being prepared; hence, experience with the Act
and knowledge of its results thus far are limited.


                                  42

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     Toxic Substances Legislation

     Enactment of the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) (PL 94-469)
in 1976 empowered the Federal government, for the first time, to con-
trol the production and use of chemical substances that may present
an unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment.  Under
this Act, manufacturers may be required to test chemicals or report
production details and physical, chemical, and biological proper-
ties.  Recordkeeping and disclosure of health effect information are
required.  In addition, the Federal government now has the authority
to regulate potentially dangerous chemicals and take immediate action
to prevent their commercial distribution, if they are found to repre-
sent an unreasonable risk.

     Implementation of TSCA is in early stages, with Federal inter-
agency coordination delegated to two committees—the Toxic Substances
Strategy Committee, concerned with appropriate application of all
laws relating to toxic substances, and the Interagency Testing Com-
mittee, responsible for recommending to EPA substances that should be
tested for potential hazards.

     Pesticide Legislation

     The Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA)
of 1947 (PL 80-104) and subsequent amendments through 1964 directed
the Secretary of Agriculture to control the labeling of, and to
register, all pesticides destined for interstate distribution or
sale.

     In 1972, the Federal Environmental Pesticide Control Act (PL
92-516) extended Federal authority to the use of pesticides, autho-
rized classification of chemicals for restricted use by trained
applicators only, and extended controls to products sold only in
intrastate commerce, as well as those sold in interstate commerce.
Administrative procedures added in 1975 amendments require that EPA
allow the Secretary of Agriculture and a scientific advisory panel
opportunity to comment before EPA cancels a registration or changes a
pesticide classification.

     The Federal Pesticide Act of 1978 requires re-registration of
all pesticides.  It also was designed to simplify the registration
process, replacing the previous one-by-one approach with a program to
regulate directly the 1,400 active chemical ingredients that are used
in pesticide products.  All pesticides sold, shipped, delivered, or
received in the United States must be registered with EPA.  Estab-
lishments that produce pesticides also must be registered with EPA.
                                43

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     Energy Legislation

     Since the OPEC embargo of 1973, the enactment of energy-related
laws has increased sharply.  Most of this legislation affects exist-
ing environmental legislation, and several laws refer specifically to
the Clean Air and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Acts.

     One theme in energy legislation is conservation.  One approach
is to reduce energy demand (and consumption);  another is to shift
from fuels in short supply (e.g., petroleum)  to more abundant and
domestically available resources (e.g., coal).  Reducing demand
should mitigate adverse environmental effects.  However, using
alternative energy supplies may place burdens  on the environment at
the points of production, distribution, and consumption.

     The Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974
(ESECA) (PL 93-319) allowed the Federal Energy Administration
(predecessor to the Department of Energy) to prohibit any power plant
or major fuel-burning installation from burning natural gas or petro-
leum products as its primary energy source if  it has the capability
and equipment to burn coal.  Additional incentive to burn coal is
found in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA) (PL
94-163), the Energy Tax Act of 1978 (PL 95-618), and the Power Plant
and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978 (PL 95-620), which continued and
extended the regulatory thrust started by the  ESECA.  Significantly,
in all cases, the switch to coal must be consistent with applicable
environmental requirements.  EPCA also set automobile fuel economy
standards, which were seen as consistent with  the requirements of the
Clean Air Act.

     Other laws with significant conservation sections are the Energy
Conservation and Production Act of 1976 (PL 94-385), the Resource
Conservation and Recovery Act, and the National Energy Conservation
Policy Act of 1978 (NECPA) (PL 95-619).  The last two Acts illustrate
that environmental and energy legislation may  be complementary.  RCRA
mandates the study of recovering energy from solid wastes; NECPA man-
dates the establishment of targets for increased industrial utiliza-
tion of recovered materials.

     Another theme of energy legislation has been the development of
new energy technologies.  Examples are the Solar Heating and Cooling
Demonstration Act (PL 93-409), the Geothermal  Energy Research, Devel-
opment, and Demonstration Act (PL 93-410), the Solar Energy Research,
Development, and Demonstration Act (PL 93-473), and the Federal Non-
Nuclear Energy Research and Development Act (PL 93-577), all enacted
in 1974.  In the last Act, Section 11 has particular environmental
significance; this section directed the Council on Environmental
Quality to assess, on a continuing basis, the  adequacy of attention

                                  44

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to environmental protection in Federal non-nuclear research, devel-
opment, and demonstration programs.  Public hearings on "the probable
consequences of trends in the development and application of energy
technologies" are also required.  The Executive Reorganization Plan
of 1977 transferred responsibility for Section 11 from CEQ to EPA.

3.4.4  Comparisons of Legislative Approaches

     Many of the differences in approaches to the control of environ-
mental pollutants are related to the types of substances regulated—
residuals from industrial processes, energy production, and waste
treatment systems under the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, and
the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, and the products them-
selves under the Toxic Substances Control Act and the Federal Insec-
ticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act.

     The Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act require technology-
based levels of emission control and include ambient air and water
quality standards.  They often lead to "end-of-the-pipe" controls to
eliminate hazards to human health and to the environment following
processing, although they also have substantial land use implica-
tions.  For example, the prevention of significant deterioration
provision in the Clean Air Act is a major consideration in siting
decisions.

     The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act set up a system for
the management of pollutants rather than prescribing the level of
pollutants to be attained in any medium.  However, the standards for
management must be sufficient to protect human health and the envi-
ronment, a test that is similar to those used in setting ambient and
effluent standards under the other Acts.  This Act mandates no
changes in technology, although it authorizes research and technolo-
gical evaluation of disposal and resource recovery methods.  Rather,
it requires the issuing of permits to those operating hazardous waste
handling facilities.  It also requires recordkeeping by means of a
manifest system.  No pollutant is specifically mentioned.  In con-
trast, both the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts mention several spe-
cific pollutants, and the Toxic Substances Control Act regulates
disposal of certain substances (e.g., polychlorinated biphenyls).

     TSCA and FIFRA control the testing, production, and use of
hazardous and toxic products through regulations.  As with RCRA, no
standards are promulgated in these Acts, no specific levels of pollu-
tants in the environment are mandated, and no pollution control
technology requirements are specified.

     All these Acts are enforced through a combination of civil and
criminal penalties, including compliance and prohibition orders,

                                  45

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fines, and imprisonment.  Compliance orders, requiring that persons
or states comply with the requirements of the Acts, and prohibition
orders, requiring cessation of actions not in accordance with the
Acts, are the most commonly used enforcement tools.  EPA can bring
suit to force individual companies to comply with the provisions of
the Acts.  An economic enforcement tool was recently provided in
Section 120 of the Clean Air Act, which provides for civil non-
compliance penalties, to be set at a level which prevents a company
from gaining a competitive advantage by non-compliance.

     Cost of compliance is not considered uniformly in the various
Acts.  In the Clean Air Act, for instance, the application of "best
available control technology" takes into account "...energy, envi-
ronmental, and economic impacts and other costs" (Section 169[3]).
The application of "lowest achievable emission rate" does not expli-
citly consider economics, but allowing new sources to be built at all
in a non-attainment area is an indirect concession to economic consi-
derations.  The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act requires
financial problems to be considered in formulating state solid waste
plans, but does not explicitly consider costs in the case of hazard-
ous wastes.  In the Clean Water Act, the "best available technology
economically achievable" requirement for toxic pollutants implies
cost considerations.  However, both Acts that deal with products—
TSCA and FIFRA—contain provisions explicitly requiring consideration
of costs.

3.4.5  Recent Trends

     Environmental regulations, like other regulations, are often
complex.  They may lead to increased costs, but as often they lead to
internalization rather than externalization of costs.  Energy-
economic-environmental conflicts are frequently present.  As the
following brief discussion indicates, both a trend towards increased
complexity of regulations and a movement towards reform are increas-
ingly evident.

     Amendments have made long-established environmental laws more
complex.  Recent amendments to both the Clean Water and Clean Air
Acts have identified new sources of pollutants and have required
effluent limitations for particular categories of industries.  In-
cluding a list of toxic pollutants (interpreted as 129 pollutants) in
Section 307 of the 1977 Amendments to the Clean Water Act, has great-
ly increased the complexity of that Act.25  por each pollutant
listed, unless a more stringent standard is set, the best available
technology economically achievable is to be applied.
25See Chapter 11, Section 11.2.4.


                                 46

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     In the newer regulatory acts, requirements for hazardous and
toxic products have led to problems in defining risk and in quanti-
fying "acceptable" risk.  TSCA gives EPA authority to take action to
prevent any unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment;
however, "unreasonable risk" is difficult to define.

     A far-reaching effect of attempts to regulate pollutants has
been the distinction between EPA as the provider of proof of toxicity
for the residuals, and product proponents as providers of proof of
product safety.  This division of emphasis has placed most of the
costs for demonstrating risk on the Federal government for residuals,
and on specific industries for products.

     Regulatory reform to minimize costs and delays, while ensuring
protection of public health and the environment, is the subject of
increasing efforts.  President Ford, in Executive Order 11821 of
November 1974, directed that "inflation impact statements" be issued
for all major executive agency legislative proposals and regulations.
In March 1978, President Carter signed Executive Order 12044, which
required agencies to prepare a regulatory analysis for those regula-
tions with major economic consequences, and further directed agencies
to publish, at least semiannually, an agenda of significant regula-
tions under development or review.

     A number of committees for regulatory coordination or review
have recently been formed within the Executive Branch.  The first was
the 17-agency Toxic Substances Strategy Committee formed in response
to the directive in President Carter's 1977 Environmental Message to
coordinate Federal regulatory activities concerning toxic
chemicals.2°

     The Interagency Regulatory Liaison Group was formed on September
26, 1977, by interagency agreement among the Environmental Protection
Agency, Food and Drug Administration, Consumer Product Safety Com-
mission, and Occupational Safety and Health Administration (42 FR
54856).  Related agencies of USDA recently joined the IRLG.  The
group is principally concerned with achieving consistent regulatory
policy and efficiently using resources in the regulation of toxic and
hazardous substances.

     The Regulatory Analysis Review Group, formed in 1978, is led by
the Council of Economic Advisers,  and reviews the regulatory analyses
prepared by the agencies under Executive Order 12044.
26Carter, J., Message to the Congress of the United States, The
  White House, May 23, 1977.
                                 47

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     The Federal Regulatory Council was created following President
Carter's inflation message of October 1978 and is currently chaired
by the EPA Administrator.  The President's goal for the Council is to
combat inflation by monitoring regulatory agency rules to help hold
down costs, to reduce Federal paperwork, and to prevent overlapping
and duplication of Federal regulations.

     Thus, the current trend within the Executive Branch is continued
support for environmental protection, coupled with increased regu-
latory review and reform.  The aim is to decrease the cost and
complexity of regulation without sacrificing the environmental protec-
tion mandated by legislation.

3.4.6  Future Directions

     It seems likely that Federal legislative actions in the future
will respond to the tightening energy supply and to the effects of
complete implementation of the Resource Conservation and Recovery
Act.

     The President's mandate of July 1979 to hold foreign oil imports
to the 1977 level and the magnitude of his proposed program for
accelerated synthetic fuels commercialization demonstrate the poten-
tial for conflict between energy and environmental policies, which,
as noted earlier, the public now recognizes. '  However, President
Carter's message on the environment (August 2, 1979) assures that
environmental protection will be built into the synfuels development
process and that trade-offs will be made fairly, equitably, and in
the light of informed public scrutiny.^°  For example, the Adminis-
tration's proposal for an Energy Mobilization Board is designed to
speed up, not circumvent, the environmental review process mandated
by the National Environmental Policy Act.

     Future legislation is not expected to weaken current environ-
mental programs.  Rather, it seems more likely that legislation will
aim toward careful structuring of emergency responses and expediting
actions mandated or permitted under current laws.  For example, sta-
tutory authority for emergency suspension of environmental plans,
such as that found in Section 110(f) of the Clean Air Act, has been
carefully worded to fulfill specific environmental needs.  Thus, in
light of the President's pledges; the Congress's continuing deference
to strong environmental laws, as demonstrated by recent energy legis-
lation; and the public's strong, well-established support of the
27Carter, J. , Address to the Nation, July 15, 1979.
28carter, J., Message to the Congress of the United States, The
  White House, August 2, 1979.

                                  48

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 environment,  it  appears  that  the U.S.  environment will  at  least main-
 tain  its  currently protected  status.

       The effects of  implementation of the  Resource  Conservation and
 Recovery  Act  are already being  felt across  the  country.  The Act's
 criteria  for  solid waste disposal and  hazardous waste management make
 for much  higher  disposal costs.  They  also  point up  the  limited
 availability  of  suitable disposal sites.  Previously, minimal solid
 waste  disposal programs  required only  a remote  plot  of  land and a
 tractor.   Today, land, particularly near urban  areas, is less readily
 available and more expensive.   As costs mount and progress is made in
 resource  recovery research and  development, commercial  resource
 recovery  should  become more economically attractive.

 3.5   INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS

 3.5.1  Trends in Other Countries

     Although a  country-by-country examination  of governmental envi-
 ronmental  action is beyond the  scope of this chapter, several general
 international environmental trends are  apparent.

     o  Governments are  institutionalizing  environmental programs.

     o  Both  developed and developing  countries have established or
        are establishing centralized environmental agencies or min-
        istries.  This trend may be in  response to the need to define
        and regulate  internal environmental problems or to deal with
        the problems  and opportunities  afforded by intergovernmental
        activities.   The successful operation of the United Nations
        Environmental Program's information network and the Interna-
        tional Register  of Potentially  Toxic Chemicals may well
        require  considerable government involvement.

     o  Developed countries are making  progress in controlling
        pollution-related environmental problems, particularly point-
        source air and water pollution.

     o  The overriding environmental problems in many underdeveloped
        nations  arise from rapid population growth and urbanization,
        and government policies that often promote "industrialization
        at any cost."

     Activities  in the developed countries often resemble those in
 the United States,  but different types  of regulatory initiatives
have been applied.   For example, since  1973, legislation in both
Japan and the German Democratic Republic has authorized charges on
                                   49

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the discharge of pollutants.29  The "let the polluter pay" approach
to pollution control is one of the 10 environmental recommendations
made by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD).30

     In countries such as India, Nepal, and Haiti, the immediate food
and fuel needs of burgeoning populations have resulted in massive
deforestation, the use of animal wastes for fuel instead of fertil-
izer, and the reduction or elimination of fallow periods in the farm-
ing cycle.  These in turn have caused erosion, degraded water qual-
ity, changed rainfall patterns, loss of soil productivity, and reduc-
tion of local food supply.  Thus for many developing countries,
meeting basic immediate human needs while providing adequate environ-
mental protection for the longer term poses a dilemma.  To a country
facing this dilemma, discussions of long-range problems like global
carbon dioxide production or destruction of the ozone layer hardly
seem relevant.

3.5.2  International Dimensions of Environmental Issues

     International environmental activity parallels that of the
United States, and the trend is for more activities by more organi-
zations.  Early concerns focused on agricultural resources and public
health.  Early health organizations were the Pan American Sanitary
Bureau (1902), the International Office of Public Health (1909), and
the Health Organization of  the League of Nations (1923).

     The United Nations quickly assumed a central environmental role
through its Food and Agricultural Organization (1945) and World
Health Organization  (1948).  A unified United Nations environmental
program was envisioned soon after the  1968 Swedish proposal to con-
sider the human environment.31  In December 1972, the United
Nations Environmental Program  (UNEP) was created by General Assembly
resolution,32 in response  to the Declaration on the Human Environ-
ment issued in Stockholm  in June 1972.

      Several other  international organizations are also actively
addressing environmental concerns.  These groups are  discussed in  the
following sections.
 29"A New Strategy  for  Environmental  Control,"  Resources,  Vol.  59,
   April-July  1978,  p.  2.
 •^Organization for Economic  Cooperation and  Development,  Meeting
   of the Environment  Committee  at  Ministerial  Level,  November  1974,
   Recommendation C(74) 223.
 3lCaldwell,  L.K.,  Environment:   A  Challenge  to Modern Society,
   Anchor Books,  Garden City,  New Jersey,  1970,  p.  98.
 32United Nations General  Assembly  Resolution 2997  (XXVII).

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     The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP)

     UNEP was created to catalyze environmental concern within U.N.
agencies, including development assistance banks, and to coordinate
efforts by member countries to cooperate in protecting the global
commons and resolving transnational issues.  Limitations in the Envi-
ronment Fund, the fund from which UNEP's appropriations are drawn,
have allowed for little expansion of function, although occasional
projects have been funded to fill gaps in environmental knowledge.
All annual UNEP program appropriations over the 1978-1981 period are
approximately equal to each other, with 1980 authorized at $31.5
million.33  This figure is less than 10 percent of EPA1s FY 1979
appropriation for research and development alone.

     UNEP's environmental program covers many subject areas and func-
tional tasks that indicate the diverse environmental concerns of de-
veloped and developing countries.  Several program goals addressing
regional concerns or environmental problems of a broad range of coun-
tries have been met expeditiously.  For example, the Intergovernment-
al Meeting on the Protection of the Mediterranean, convened by UNEP
in 1975, has resulted in treaties and protocols, coordinated re-
search, and integrated planning; and the 1977 United Nations Confer-
ence on Desertification drafted an action plan that is being
implemented.

     Concerns of either developed or developing nations alone have
been addressed less successfully.  Earthwatch, the environmental
assessment task identified in the 1972 action plan, has not developed
mechanisms or funding for assessment; UN Habitat and Human Settle-
ments Foundation (1974) and Habitat, Centre for Human Settlements
(1977), major interests of developing countries, have received few
governmental contributions.

     Atmospheric problems such as carbon dioxide, stratospheric
ozone, and acid rain (see Chapter 5) may define significantly "the
outer limits" of global environmental health that Earthwatch was
created to assess.  An operational Earthwatch with a fully imple-
mented Global Environmental Monitoring System may be necessary before
meaningful global environmental assessments can be made.  Recommenda-
tions for mechanisms and procedures for conducting environmental
assessment within Earthwatch will be on the agenda of the UNEP
Governing Council's 1980 session.3^
33Personal communication, Francis X. Cunningham, U.S. Department of
  State, July 1979.
-^Mainland, E.,  Memorandum, U.S. Department of State, June 12,
  1979.
                                 51

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     Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

     The Council of OECD, an organization of 25 developed nations,
established the Environment Committee in 1970.  The Environment
Committee meeting at Ministerial level in November 1974 adopted 10
recommendations that have served as elements of the environmental
agenda for member countries and an action plan for the Environment
Committee.-^  The activities of the Environmental Directorate were
funded at a level of 9.35 million French francs ($2.15 million) for
1978.36  EPA Administrator Douglas Costle chaired the Ministerial
Level Meeting in May 1979, at which new emphasis was put on anticipa-
tory environmental policies, improved technologies and practices for
coal combustion, improved economic analysis of environmental benefits
and cost, and improved environmental reporting.

     Economic Commission for Europe (ECE)

     Both eastern and western European nations are members of the
Economic Commission for Europe.  EPA Administrator Costle chaired the
U.S. delegation to the ECE High Level Meeting on the Environment,
held in Geneva November 13-16, 1979.  He was one of the signatories
of the international convention on long-range transportation of air
pollutants.  While not binding, the convention provides that ECE
member nations will take appropriate measures both nationally and
internationally to abate or eliminate transboundary air pollution.

     Organization of American States (OAS)

     The Organization of American States has a modest program in
environmental sciences and ecology that generally funds small pro-
jects.  Occasionally, larger projects (more than $1 million) are
supported, such as a recent study of development in arid and semiarid
lands in Argentina.  OAS also sponsors regional meetings on such
topics as marine mammals, migratory animals, and terrestrial ecosys-
tems.

     International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
     (World Bank)

     The World Bank provides loans and technical assistance for pro-
jects in developing countries.  The Bank's Office of Environmental
 ^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,  Meeting of
  the Environment Committee at Ministerial Level, November 1974,
  Recommendations C(74)215-224.
36personal communication, Leigh Morse, U.S. Department of State,
  July 1979.

                                  52

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 and  Health Affairs was  created  in  1970  to  identify and mitigate  ad-
 verse  environmental effects  of  development  projects.  The Bank has
 funded environmental  studies, and  loan  conditions may require envi-
 ronmental controls.   Since loans total  billions of dollars annually
 ($8.7  billion by  the  Bank and its  affiliates  in FY 1978),37 the
 World  Bank could  be a significant  environmental influence in the
 developing nations.

     Committee on the Challenges of Modern  Society

     ThvLs Committee,  established under  NATO in 1969, encourages
 voluntary participation  in non-defense-oriented international pro-
 jects.  EPA is the lead  agency  for four current environmental pilot
 studies—flue gas desulfurization, drinking water, estuarine manage-
 ment,  and plastic wastes recovery.

     Bilateral Agreements

     Finally, and perhaps most  significantly  for research and devel-
 opment, there are numerous bilateral intergovernmental agreements.
 Some,  such as the Boundary Waters  Treaty of 1909 between the United
 States  and Canada that established the  International Joint Commis-
 sion,  have been of significant  long-term import.  There are many
 other  agreements, some of them  long-range umbrella agreements and
 others  short-term project agreements focused  on specific topics.

 3.6  CONCLUSIONS

     The quick survey of societal  trends in this chapter supports the
 general conclusion that protecting the  environment is a widely shared
 objective.  This  seems to be the case both  internationally and
 nationally.  It appears to be the  case  regardless of the indicator
 used,  whether it be public opinion, legislation, or the proliferation
 of organizations.  Obviously, the  future environmental outlook de-
 pends  largely on whether protecting.the environment continues to have
 a high priority among the competing values which must be accommodated
when public policies  are made.  For this reason, future Environmental
Outlook reports will attempt to deal more explicitly and extensively
with likely changes in values in the future, and what these changes
might mean.
37World Bank, World Bank Annual Report 1978. p. 9.
                                  53

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                          CHAPTER 4
                       AIR POLLUTANTS
                      HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 4

  Between 1975 and 2000, emissions of hydrocarbons and carbon
  monoxide are expected to be reduced significantly, with
  particulate emissions decreasing to a lesser extent.  These
  reductions, which assume full compliance with existing pollution
  control regulations, should be of particular benefit to urban
  areas.  However, emissions of nitrogen oxides are projected to
  increase during the projection period under high economic growth
  conditions, and sulfur oxide emissions are projected to remain
  relatively constant.  In some regions, this could aggravate
  problems of acid precipitation and photochemical smog.

  Although gross generation of particulates is expected to double
  between 1975 and 2000, net emissions are expected to decrease
  slightly during the period.   When inhaled, particulates can
  contribute to respiratory disorders.  The construction materials
  industry,  which is the major source of particulate emissions, is
  the only industrial source for which net emissions are forecast to
  increase;  the most substantial decrease occurs in the steel
  industry.

  Net emissions of sulfur oxides, which may affect lung function,
  are projected to remain relatively constant between 1975 and 2000.
  Coal combustion by electric utilities and industrial boilers
  accounted for two-thirds of net sulfur oxide emissions in 1975.
  Although coal use by these sectors is expected to double by 2000,
  net sulfur oxide emissions are expected to remain relatively
  constant as a result of the application of flue gas desulfuriza-
  tion techniques.

  Nitrogen oxides can have adverse effects on the human respiratory
  system, and their presence in the atmosphere contributes to photo-
  chemical smog and acid precipitation.  Growth in electric power
  generation and industrial combustion between 1975 and 2000 is pro-
  jected to  be the major source of increasing net emissions.  In-
  creases from these and other sources should be partially offset by
  decreases  in emissions due to controls for motor vehicles.

  Hydrocarbons are a significant air quality problem because they
  contribute to the formation of photochemical oxidants.  In 1975,
See section 2.4 for definition of "gross" generation of pollutants
and "net" emission of pollutants.

                                55

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   over three-fourths of the urban counties in the U.S. failed to
   comply with primary ambient air quality standards for photochemi-
   cal oxidants.

o  Net carbon monoxide emissions are projected to be halved between
   1975 and 2000, primarily because of reduced transportation emis-
   sions.  Carbon monoxide is believed to cause cardiovascular
   disease symptoms and other adverse health effects.   Carbon monox-
   ide may be transformed in the atmosphere into carbon dioxide which
   is not regulated, but which may have adverse long-range effects on
   climate.  Total net emissions of hydrocarbons are expected to
   decrease between 1975 and 2000 mainly because of the control of
   emissions from mobile sources.

o  There has been increasing concern regarding emissions of lead and
   other toxic substances due to the adverse health effects of expo-
   sure to these elements.  Lead emissions are expected to decline
   greatly in the future because of reductions in lead fuel addi-
   tives.  In contrast, emissions are expected to increase for sub-
   stances such as cadmium, nickel, selenium, arsenic, fluorine and
   antimony.

4.1  INTRODUCTION

4.1.1  Problem Definition and Regulatory Background

     Over the past two decades, Americans have become increasingly
aware of the deleterious effects of air pollution on human health,
visibility, climate, plants, and animals.  In response to public con-
cern over deteriorating air quality, Congress passed the Clean Air
Act in 1963.  Since then, additional laws have been passed to
reinforce the 1963 Act.  The Air Quality Act of 1967 and the Clean
Air Act Amendments of 1970 and 1977 established a number of regula-
tory mechanisms (summarized in Table 4-1) for controlling emissions
from "stationary" (e.g., industrial plants, utilities) and "mobile"
sources of major air pollutants.

     Air pollution regulations, although stated in terms of abatement
of emissions at their sources, are designed ultimately to achieve
federally-mandated standards of ambient air quality set at levels
that protect public health and welfare.  Standards have been estab-
lished for the permissible ambient concentrations of seven atmospher-
ic pollutants—particulates, sulfur oxides (SOX), nitrogen oxides
(NOX), hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (03) and
lead.  The 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments require periodic review of
ambient standards.  Review will include reexamination of available
control technologies and analysis of whether additional airborne
pollutant categories (e.g., fine particulates, sulfates) need to be
controlled.
                                  56

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                                               TABLE 4-1
                            MAJOR REGULATORY MECHANISMS FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
Regulatory
Mechanism

State Imple-
mentation
Plan (SIP)
New Source
Performance
Standards
(NSPS)
Legislative
Source of
Mechanism

1970 Clean Air
Act Amendments
(PL .91-604)
 Scope of
Regulation

  State
Pollutants
Regulated

All criteria
pollutants
1970 Clean Air
Act Amendments
National
All criteria
pollutants
Sources          Summary Description
Affected        	of Regulation

Stationary      For existing  (pre-1971)a
                industrial and electric
                utility facilities, sets
                limits on emissions as
                part of a statewide plan
                to reduce ambient con-
                centrations of criteria
                pollutants.

Stationary      Requires new  facilities
                in selected industries
                to meet national emission
                standards for criteria
                pollutants.
Revised New
Source Per-
formance
Standards
1977 Clean Air
Act Amendments
(PL 95-95)
National
All criteria
pollutants
Stationary      Provides new and stricter
                emission standards for
                criteria pollutants
                reflecting the degree
                of control that can be
                achieved by Best Avail-
                able Technologies (BACT).
                                            (Continued)

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                                             TABLE 4-1 CONTINUED
      Regulatory
      Mechanism

      Mobile Source
      Emission
      Standards
Legislative
Source of
Mechanism

1970 Clean Air
Act Amendments
 Scope of
Regulation

National
and Local
Pollutants
Regulated

Nitrogen
Oxides,
Hydrocarbons >
Carbon Mon-
oxide, Photo-
chemical
Oxidants
Sources
Affected

Mobile
Summary Description
   of Regulation	

Requires automobile
and truck manu-
facturers to produce
vehicles meeting stand-
ards that are made more
stringent over time.
      Offset Require-
      ments
1977 Clean Air    County
Act Amendments
Ln
oo
             All criteria
             pollutants
              Stationary      In areas violating prim-
              and Mobile      ary and secondary National
                              Ambient Air Quality Standards
                              (NAAQS), requires sources
                              to identify and implement
                              methods to more than
                              "offset" emission increases
                              by reducing emissions from
                              sources already in the area.
      Prevention of
      Significant
      Deterioration
      (PSD) Requirements
1977 Clean Air
Act Amendents
County
or portion
of county
Particulates
(TSP) Sulfur
 Dioxide
Stationary      In areas that meet NAAQS,
and Mobile      strictly regulates increases
                in ambient pollution levels
                in order to prevent any
                significant deterioration
                of air quality.
                                                  (Continued)

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                                               TABLE  4-1  CONCLUDED
       Regulatory
       Mechanism

       National Emission
       Standards for
       Hazardous Air
       Pollutants
                       Legislative
                       Source of
                       Mechanism

                       1970 Clean Air
                       Act Amendments
 Scope of
Regulation

National
Pollutants
Regulated

Beryllium
Asbestos
Mercury
Vinyl Chlor-
ide
Sources         Summary Description
Affected            of Regulation

Stationary      Provides emission standards
and Mobile      for hazardous air pollutants
                that are not regulated by
                ambient air quality standards.
Ln
VO
1Subpart D of 40 CFR 60 establishes  emission  standards  for  industrial  and  electrical  utility plants
 constructed or modified after  1971;   plants  already  existing  as  of  1971 are  regulated at state level.
 In this chapter the terms  old  (pre-1976)  plants and  new plants have been  used  to  make the distinction
 between the two levels of  regulation,  since  in the SEAS model construction of  a new  plant is assumed
 to require four years.

-------
     The trend projections discussed in this chapter reflect the
simplifying assumption that no changes will be made to the standards
in effect as of July 1, 1978.  Even as EPA research reveals new envi-
ronmental problems likely to require more stringent control, concerns
over energy availability or economic growth are producing pressures
toward relaxation of environmental standards.   Given these counter-
vailing influences, the future direction of environmental regulation
is impossible to forecast, and it is most prudent in making projec-
tions to assume that no significant net changes will occur.

     The air pollution trend analyses presented in this chapter pro-
vide projections of both "gross" emissions and "net" emissions.  The
terms gross generation and gross pollution refer to the amount of
pollutant that is generated prior to the benefit of any abatement
devices including abatement equipment already  in place in 1975.*
Net emissions represent pollutants actually released to the atmos-
phere after all legally required abatement has been achieved.

     Thus,  the net emissions levels reported here would be achieved
only if all sources were to comply fully with  all abatement regula-
tions in effect July 1, 1978.  Full compliance should be understood
to mean the installation of required control systems and the sus-
tained performance of these systems at design control efficiency.
Perfect attainment is not expected; indeed, recent EPA research indi-
cates that emissions from both stationary and  mobile sources often
greatly exceed the intended standards, even in cases where the source
has been officially identified as being in compliance.2  When
interpreting the trends and graphic representations of air emissions
presented here, the readier should remember that actual air emissions
for a given scenario would probably fall somewhere in the range
between the projections of gross generation, as a maximum, and net
emissions,  as a minimum.  We recognize, therefore, that the "net
emissions"  projected in the SEAS model certainly underestimate actual
emissions to some degree.

     In addition, SEAS does not account for indoor sources of air
pollutants.  Sources such as tobacco smoking,  indoor cooking and
heating equipment, and building materials are  under investigation
from a public health standpoint.  This research is being conducted by
^Although most environmental policies are not directed toward
 reducing the level of gross generation in future years, gross
 generation will be indirectly influenced by process or material
 input substitutions made by industry over time in response to
 economic stimuli, such as rising energy prices.
^Korb, B.R. et al., Review of EPA's Emission Control Program for
 Light Duty Vehicles, draft report, December 1977.
                                 60

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the EPA in cooperation with other Federal agencies under the author-
ity of the Public Health Service Act (PL 956 23-Title 3-Section 304).
Although indoor sources may not be significant when compared to total
emissions of a given pollutant, they may be very important in terms
of health consequences.

4.1.2  Relevant Scenario Assumptions

     The future levels and regional distribution of air pollutant
emissions are particularly sensitive to four of the scenario assump-
tions described in Chapter 2 of this report.  These assumptions are
described in Table 4-2.  In general, forecasts of air emissions will
be most affected by policies influencing the levels of energy con-
sumption by industrial and private users, t.he mix of fuels being con-
sumed, and consumer preferences toward transportation or siting
alternatives.

     It must be remembered that the projections we have derived on
the basis of the High and Low Growth Scenarios are intended only as
trend indicators, not as predictions of the future.  Their purpose is
to indicate the direction of change in certain parameters of environ-
mental quality, given current policies and a range of conceivable
economic futures.  As such, they permit us to identify the impli-
cations for the future of our present environmental policies.

4.1.3  Data Sources and Quality

     Environmental Protection Agency documents are the principal
sources for emissions data used in these analyses.^  These sources
provide a compilation of human activities that contribute to air pol-
lution.  Data for some pollutant categories, such as fine particu-
lates and indoor pollutants, are scarce or non-existent.  Much of
this information was published in 1975 and 1976.  However, emissions
estimates for energy consumption activities such as electricity gen-
eration, industrial fuel combustion, and highway transportation
       sources include, among others:  U.S. Environmental
 Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
 Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors, Publication AP-42,
 and Supplements 5-8, March 1975; Massaglia, M.F., Summary of
 Particulate'and Sulfur Oxide Source Categories, 1970-1975, Vol. II,
 Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina,
 August 1976; Battelle Columbus Laboratories, "Cost of Clean Air and
 Water:  1976-1985," unpublished technical report, April 1977.


                                 61

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                               TABLE 4-2
       MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS AFFECTING PROJECTIONS  OF  FUTURE  LEVELS
             AND DISTRIBUTION OF  AIR POLLUTANT  EMISSIONS
     Major Assumptions
Substitution of Coal for
  Oil and Gas
                Description
Emissions from fuel combustion, especially
coal burning, are a significant portion of
particulate, sulfur oxide, and nitrogen
oxide emissions from human activities.
Thus, increased use of coal as a utility
and boiler fuel will tend to offset envi-
ronmental improvements from implementa-
tion of environmental controls.
Rate at Which Existing
  Electric Utilities are
  Phased Out and Replaced
  by New Facilities
Effect of Economic Growth
  on Transportation
  Activity
Energy Development and
  Population and Industrial
  Shifts
Under current SIP requirements, older elec-
tric utilities (existing before 1976) are
generally permitted much higher pollutant
releases per unit of electricity generated
than are new facilities.  To simulate the
effect of slower economic growth on the
availability of investment capital for
plant expansion, the rate at which older
facilities are replaced is lower in the
Low Growth Scenario than in the High.

Low economic growth, high oil prices, and
shifts among transportation modes tend to
reduce transportation activity and the
emissions from vehicular travel (e.g.,
NOX, hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide).

Energy development in the West and South-
west, along with a gradual shift in popu-
lation and industrial activity to the
"Sunbelt" states, will affect the regional
distribution of emissions over time.
                                   62

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have been periodically updated and refined over the last two
years.

     Because of the prominence of combustion and transportation as
air pollution sources, specialized detailed approaches are used to
calculate pollutants from these sources.  Pollutants from electric
utilities and industrial combustion activities are calculated
separately for those facilities in operation before 1976 and those
on-line later, in order to reflect the differences in stringency
among the applicable emission limitations.^  Mobile source emis-
sions are calculated on the basis of estimates of the age distribu-
tion, mileage, and occupancy of the motor vehicle fleet over time, in
conjunction with a set of emission factors for each model-year vehi-
cle.  This level of detail substantially improves the model's capa-
bility to project general air emission trends at the national or
Federal Region level.  However, SEAS does not simulate the regulatory
environment, which will strongly affect construction of new industri-
al facilities in non-attainment and Prevention of Significant
Deterioration (PSD) areas.

     In an attempt to evaluate the quality of the emissions data base
for most air pollutants estimated by SEAS, the SEAS values for 1975
have been compared with estimates made for 1973 by EPA's National
Emissions Data System (NEDS).^  The NEDS data base contains a
source-by-source inventory of emissions which is periodically updated
by EPA.  The SEAS data base utilizes some information from NEDS, but
 Data sources used in updating the residuals data base include:
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, State Implementation Plans -
 Emission Regulations for Particulate Matter;  Fuel Combustion,
 August 1976, and State Implementation Plans - Emission Regulations
 for Sulfur Oxide:  Fuel Combustion, September 1978.   Both studies
 were done for the EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
 Office of Air and Waste Management. Also Dux, D.D. et al., Modeling
 Long-Term Coal Production with the Argonne Coal Market Model,
 Argonne National Laboratory, August 1977.
-'Emission standards for industrial combustors and public utility
 plants constructed or modified after 1971  are set by Federal
 regulation (New Source Performance Standards);  plants already
 existing as of 1971 are regulated at state level (State Implementa-
 tion Plans).  In this chapter, the terms "old "(pre-1976) plants" and
 "new plants" are assumed to make the distinction between the two
 levels of regulation (SEAS assumes that construction of a new  plant
 requires five years).
"U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1973 National  Emissions
 Report, National Emissions Data System of  the Aerometric Emissions
 Reporting System, EPA-450/2-76-007, May 1976.


                                 63

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makes use of many other data sources, including the Major Fuel
Burning Installation data base, Federal Power Commission power plant
inventories, and information gathered by Battelle for the Cost of
Clean Air report.  Comparisons of NEDS to SEAS are useful for deter-
mining discrepancies which may indicate potential weaknesses in SEAS
or NEDS coverage of major sources of pollution.  The comparisons are
presented within the introductory discussion on each pollutant.

     Overall, there generally is a close correspondence between these
data sources for the 1975 estimates of TSP, SOX, NOX, and CO
emissions.  In future years, confidence levels are greatest for TSP
and SOX.  The trend in NOX estimates may change dramatically if
additional control requirements are established.  In addition, pro-
jections of NOX, HC, and CO are probably understated due to the
assumption that mobile sources will fully comply with current stand-
ards.  More recent NEDS data (for 1975), which have been published
recently, were not available at the time of this analy.sis.

4.1.4  Organization of Chapter

     The remainder of this chapter is organized into seven sections.
In Sections 4.2 through 4.6, SEAS emission projections are presented
for five major air pollutants—particulates, sulfur oxides, nitrogen
oxides, hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide.  For each pollutant, the
trends are reported in general terms for the nation and significant
regional trends are noted.  In Section 4.7, trends for other critical
air pollutants not estimated by SEAS are discussed in a more qualita-
tive manner.  These include ozone, fine particulates, lead, and other
toxic substances.  The implications of all the emission trends are
then discussed in Section 4.8.  Some topics that have special rele-
vance for air pollution are covered more fully in other chapters—in
particular, Chapter 5, Global Atmospheric Pollution, and Chapter 11,
Toxic Substances.

4.2  PARTICULATES

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 4.2

o  Between 1975 and 2000, total generation of particulates (before
   imposition of controls) is projected to double.

o  If full compliance with existing air emission regulations were
   achieved, annual particulate emissions would decrease one-third
   between 1975 and 1985.  SIP standards are scheduled to go into
   effect in 1982.  Compliance with these standards should have a
   beneficial impact, especially in the near term.  After 1985,
   emissions would increase gradually through 2000, to 85 percent of
   1975 levels, due to economic growth and increasing fossil fuel
   combustion.
                                  64

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o  Despite increases in total coal combustion by electric utilities
   and industrial boilers, particulate emissions from coal combustion
   are expected to decline if standards are met.

o  The construction materials industry (which includes glass, cement,
   sand and gravel, and similar sources) is the major direct source
   of particulate emissions, accounting for approximately 40 percent
   of total net emissions.'  This is the only industrial source for
   which particulate emissions in 2000 are projected to exceed 1975
   levels.

o  Assuming process changes in the steel industry, including conver-
   sion to basic oxygen and electric arc furnaces, particulate emis-
   sions from the steel industry are projected to decrease more
   sharply than emissions from other industries.

o  The Middle Atlantic and Great Lakes Regions (Federal Regions III
   and V) are expected to show large reductions in emissions as a
   result of compliance with standards and slow economic growth.  In
   contrast, although emissions in the South Central Region (Federal
   Region VI) are currently rather low, they are expected to increase
   substantially because of growth in aluminum production and wide-
   spread substitution of low-Btu coal for other fuels.

4.2.1  Introduction

     Tiny particles of solid and liquid matter that can be suspended
in air for brief or extended periods are defined as particulates.
Such particles can be formed by natural processes as well as by human
activities.  Naturally occurring particulate generation has been
estimated to account for as much as 90 percent of total suspended
particulates (TSP) in the atmosphere.^  However, generation from
human activities such as industrial combustion and manufacturing is
of greater environmental concern because such particulates often con-
tain more toxic materials and they are more heavily concentrated in
urban areas.  The relationship between man-made direct emissions,
man-made indirect or "fugitive" emissions, and natural particulate
'The reference source for particulate emissions data for the
 construction materials industry is U.S. Environmental Protection
 Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Compilation of
 Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Third Edition, AP-42.  These
 emission coefficients are for process steps such as crushers,
 pulverizers, kilns, dryers, coolers, etc.  In general, fugitive dust
 such as blowing dust from sand piles or roads is not included.
°Stoker, H.S., and S.L. Seager, Environmental Chemistry;  Air and
 Water Pollution, Second Edition, Scott, Foresman, and Co., Glenview,
 Illinois, 1976, p. 85.

                                  65

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sources requires some clarification.  Particulates emitted from
crushing operations in the construction materials industry are exam-
ples of man-made direct emissions;  particulates (or gases) escaping
from inadvertent points of a building or an industry system are often
termed fugitive emissions.  In contrast, fugitive dust enters the air
through the action of the wind either from a natural area or a human
activity, e.g., a barren hillside or a plowed field.  Fugitive dust
is discussed in Section 4.8.

     Three caveats should be noted  concerning SEAS projections of
particulate emissions.  First, SEAS estimates represent only particu-
lates occurring directly from human activities; those from natural
sources are generally not included.  Thus for the Western and North-
west Regions (Federal Regions IX and X) where fugitive dust is the
predominant source of total suspended particulates,° SEAS estimates
represent only a small part of the  particulates likely to be released
in those areas.  Second, SEAS estimates do not account for indoor
sources of particulate emissions.  However, they may be very impor-
tant from a public health standpoint.  Third, SEAS projections pro-
vide the total weight of particulate emissions; no distinctions are
made regarding the size or composition of particulate matter.  For
this reason, separate discussions of fine particulates (those with
diameters of less than 5 microns) and of particulates composed of
lead and other trace elements are presented in Sections 4.7.2, 4.7.3,
and 4.7.4.

     Estimates of total particulate emissions from EPA's National
Emission Data System for 1973 are about 10 percent higher than SEAS
estimates for 1975.  When the NEDS  results are adjusted to factor out
differences in the methods used to  classify fuels into end-use cate-
gories, and in assumed levels of compliance with pollution control
standards, NEDS and SEAS data are very similar.  NEDS does not assume
full compliance with standards; NEDS estimates assume -sustained per-
formance of installed control systems at design control efficiency
and do not account for deterioration or recurring malfunctions.  In
addition, NEDS does not include the full impact of SIP requirements.
Also, NEDS reports emissions from wood burning and other sources not
included in SEAS.  The lower emission levels reported by SEAS are a
consequence of such differences.
^Fugitive dust and its contribution to TSP are discussed in Section
 4.8.2.
                                 66

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 4.2.2   Emission Trends  for Particulates

     General  Trends

     Gross  particulate  generation  (i.e., particulates present  in
 untreated wastestreams)  is expected  to more than double between 1975
 and  2000.   Despite this  large  increase, if the emission controls
 required under the 1970  and  1977 Clean Air Act Amendments are  imple-
 mented, net particulate  emissions  are projected to decrease by 15
 percent over  this time period  under  High Growth conditions, and by 25
 percent under Low Growth conditions.  This decline would be made pos-
 sible by a  combination of air  pollution control devices and process
 changes, such as gravity settling  chambers, cyclone collectors, and
 more effective baghouses and electrostatic precipitators.

     Net emissions are projected to  be lowest in 1982 (approximately
 45 percent  below 1975 levels under High Growth conditions), the year
 by which full compliance with  SIP  requirements is mandated.  The
 environmental benefits of compliance with these standards should be
 maintained  in the near term.   After  1985, economic growth and
 increasing  fossil fuel combustion  are expected—in the absence of
 more stringent emission  standards—to reverse the downward trend.

     Major  sources of net particulate emissions include the construc-
 tion materials industry, electric utilities (principally coal-fired
 utilities), fuel combustion by industrial boilers, and steel produc-
 tion.  The net emissions from  each of these sources in 1975 are
 estimated in  Table 4-3.

     Despite  large increases in total gross particulate generation
 between 1975  and 2000, total net emissions are projected to remain
 below 1975 levels.  The trends in gross, captured, and net particu-
 late emissions from each major source are illustrated in Figures 4-1
 and 4-2 for the High Growth Scenario.  In the following discussion,
 the factors that affect future emission levels from these sources are
 examined.

     Major Industrial Sources

     The construction materials industry!" releases particulate
matter into the air during process steps such as crushing,
      construction materials industry is comprised of the following
  manufacturing and mining industries, as classified according to the
  Standard Industrial Classification (SIC):  glass (SIC 321, 322, and
  323); cement (SIC 324); structural clay products (SIC 325); pottery
  products (SIC 326); concrete, gypsum, plaster, and lime (SIC 142);
  sand and gravel (SIC 144); clay ceramics and refractory minerals
  mining (SIC 145); and gypsum mining (SIC 1492).

                                  67

-------
                                                     89
                                                        EMISSIONS  (MILLIONS OF TONS)
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INDUSTRIAL
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TOTAL
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           10 -
                              I
                1975 1985 2000
                CONSTRUCTION
                  MATERIALS
                              1975 1985 2000
 ELECTRIC
UTILITIES
            1975  1985 2000
INDUSTRIAL
COMBUSTION
                                                          1975  1985 2000
   STEEL
PRODUCTION
                                         1975 1985  2000
  OTHER
INDUSTRIES
                                          1975 1985 2000
  TOTAL
EMISSIONS
                                                FIGURE 4-2
                          TRENDS IN NET PARTICULATE EMISSIONS, BY SOURCE
                                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                              1975,1985, 2000

-------
                              TABLE 4-3
           PRINCIPAL SOURCES OF NET PARTICULATE EMISSIONS
                                1975
                                   Net
                                Emissions                Percent of
        Source	        (106 Tons)          Total Net Emissions
Construction Materials
Industry
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Steel
Other3
Total
6.0
3.5
1.2
1.2
2.9
14.8
41
24
8
8
19
100
 a
  Sources each of which emits  less than 6 percent of the total.
pulverizing and drying.  These emissions are not as easily controlled
as  those  from more enclosed operations.  Nevertheless, net emissions
in  1985 are expected to be at least 35 percent less than 1975 levels,
in  both the High and Low Growth Scenarios.  This reduction would be
achieved  through the use of improved ventilation equipment and bag-
houses to comply with 1982 SIP requirements.  However, as a result of
increased levels of production between 1985 and 2000, assumed under
High Growth conditions, net emissions in 2000 are projected to be
about 5 percent higher than in 1975.  Under Low Growth conditions,
emissions by 2000 would still be 10 percent less than in 1975.

     Net  particulate emissions from steel production are projected to
decrease  by about 90 percent in both the High and Low Growth Scenar-
ios between 1975 and 1985, despite a 30 percent increase in gross
particulate generation.  This decrease would result from assumed full
compliance with SIP requirements by 1982, and to a lesser extent,
from process changes that are assumed to occur within the industry,
including conversion to the cleaner basic oxygen and electric arc
furnaces.


                                  70

-------
     Coal Combustion Sources

     Electric utilities accounted for one-fourth of the nation's net
particulate emissions in 1975, and coal-fired facilities produced 98
percent of the utility total.  This is due to the fact that coal,
unlike other fossil fuels, contains large quantities of mineral mat-
ter that, after combustion, remains behind as ash.  Approximately 15
percent of this ash settles to the bottom of the combustor and is
treated as a solid waste.  The remaining 85 percent is sufficiently
fine to be entrained by the combustion airstream and generated as fly
ash.

     In the High Growth Scenario, net particulate emissions from
utilities are projected to decline about 65 percent between 1975 and
1985, despite a projected increase of over 80 percent in the genera-
tion of coal-fired electricity during that period (Figure 4-3). The
decrease in emissions is expected if currently mandated control
devices are installed both on coal-fired facilities on line before
1976 ("old" plants) and on those constructed since ("new" plants).

     The SIP requirements that apply to old plants are less stringent
than those that apply to new facilities because of the difficulties
and expense of retrofitting.^  As a result, old plants emit more
particulates per unit of electricity generated than do new plants.
In the High Growth Scenario for example, old coal-fired plants would
generate 50 percent of the coal-fired electricity in 1985, yet they
would produce about 70 percent of the particulates from all coal-
fired plants.  Under Low Growth conditions, in which a slower rate of
power plant retirement is assumed, the proportion of particulates
released by old plants would be even greater.

     Electricity generation from coal-burning plants in 2000 is pro-
jected to be 40 to 50 percent higher than in 1985, based on the Low
and High Growth Scenarios, respectively.  Nevertheless, net particu-
late emissions are expected to be fairly constant from 1985 to 2000
because of the gradual retirement of old, "dirty" plants and their
replacement by new facilities using Best Available Control Technolo-
gies (BACT).

     As is true for electric utilities, the bulk of net particulate
emissions from industrial boiler fuel use results from coal combus-
tion (94 percent of the 1975 industrial combustion total).  By 1985,
after three years of compliance with 1982 SIP requirements, there
would be a reduction of 60 to 70 percent (High Growth and Low Growth,
      SIP standard for particulate emissions in New Mexico is an
  exception.  It is more stringent than both NSPS and BACT standards.
                                  71

-------
                     EMISSIONS  (MILLIONS OF TONS)
                                               ELECTRICITY GENERATION (10   Btu)
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 respectively)  in industrial  coal  combustion  net  emissions  from  1975
 levels.   From  1985  to  2000,  net emission  levels  from  coal  combustion
 are  projected  to remain fairly constant.   In contrast,  particulate
 emissions from industrial  combustion  of oil  are  projected  to  increase
 fourfold between 1975  and  2000 in both  scenarios.   However, since oil
 combustion generates far less particulate matter  than coal combus-
 tion,  it would remain  a relatively small  source  of  net  particulate
 emissions in 2000.

     Fuel combustion by electric  utilities and industrial  boilers
 combined accounted  for one-third  of the 15 million  tons of particu-
 lates  emitted  in the nation  in 1975.  By  2000, net  emissions  from
 these  sources  are projected  to decline  60 percent,  even though  total
 coal combustion is  projected to increase  250 percent  in the High
 Growth Scenario and 150 percent in the  Low Growth Scenario between
 1975 and 2000.

     Analysis  of Regional  Trends

     Regional  variations in  both  gross and net particulate emissions
 are  illustrated in  Figure  4-4.  Some  regional trends  differ substan-
 tially from the national trends because of differences in  the compo-
 sition of regional  industrial sources, economic growth patterns, and
 state  emissions requirements.  Much greater  reductions between  1975
 and 2000 than  the national average  (15 percent) are projected for the
 Middle Atlantic and Great  Lakes Regions (Federal  Regions III and V),
 where  net emissions would  decline  approximately 50 percent in the
 High Growth Scenario.   In  contrast, net emissions from the South Cen-
 tral Region (Federal Region  VI) are projected to  increase by almost
 70 percent.

     In  1975,  particulate  emissions in the Great  Lakes Region
 (Federal  Region V) accounted for 30 percent  of the national total,
 more than any  other region.  By 2000, however, total  net emissions
 from Federal Region V are  projected to be  less than half of the 1975
 levels in both  scenarios because of reduction in  emissions from the
 coal-fired utilities located in the region.  Nevertheless, Federal
 Region V  is expected to remain one of the largest sources of national
 particulate emissions.

     In  1975,  the Southeast  Region (Federal Region IV) accounted for
 about one-fourth of the nation's net particulate emissions.  The two
major  sources  of pollutant generation in  this region  are the con-
 struction materials industry and old  (pre-1976) coal-fired utilities.
 In both  the High and Low Growth Scenarios, net emissions from elec-
 tric utilities  in 2000 are expected to be 80 percent lower than in
 1975 because of  the retirement of pre-1976 utilities and the imple-
mentation of controls.   During the same time period, net emissions

                                 73

-------
                                                                    EMISSIONS  (MILLIONS  OF TONS)
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                                                                     EMISSIONS (MILLIONS OF TONS)
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REGION VI
South Central
REGION VII
Central
REGION VIII
Mountain
REGION IX
West
REGION X
Northwest

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from the construct ion materials industry are projected to increase
about 50 percent, primarily as a result of a shift in building acti-
vity from the urban northeast to sunbelt states in Federal Region IV.
The net effect of the electric utilities'  and construction materials
industry's changes is a fairly constant level of total net emissions
between 1975 and 2000 in the High Growth Scenario, and a decline of
20 percent in the Low Growth Scenario.

     Particulate releases in the Middle Atlantic Region (Federal
Region III) constituted about one-fifth of the nation's total in
1975.  With the assumption of full compliance with 1982 emission
standards emissions in this region are projected to decline by 60
percent in the High Growth Scenario between 1975 and 1985.  The mag-
nitude of this reduction reflects projected slow regional economic
growth as well as the imposition of pollution control.  By 2000, par-
ticulate emissions in this region are still forecast to be 50 percent
lower than 1975 levels in both scenarios.

     About one-third of the 70 percent increase in net emissions pro-
jected in the South Central Region (Federal Region VI) between 1975
and 2000 would result from growth in aluminum production.  Another
one-fifth of the total increase would come from higher industrial
coal combustion, as a result of substitution of relatively cheap
Texas lignite and Western sub-bituminous coals for oil and gas.

4.3  SULFUR OXIDES

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 4.3

o  Generation of sulfur oxides (before abatement) is expected to
   increase about as rapidly as Gross National Product (GNP) from
   1975 to 2000, with the rate of increase lessening after 1985.

o  Coal combustion by electric utilities and industrial boilers,
   which  in 1975 accounted for two-thirds of sulfur  oxide  releases,
   is  expected  to more than double between 1975 and  2000.  However,
   SOX releases  are  expected  to remain  fairly  constant from  1975 to
   2000 as a result  of desulfurization  techniques.   This  projection
   assumes  full  compliance with regulations.

o  Sulfur oxide  releases  from the copper  smelting industry,  the  third
    largest SOX  source, are expected  to  decline sharply between  1975
    and  1985 through  use  of control measures  (e.g.,  single  and double
   contact sulfuric  acid  plants and  sulfite-bisulfite  stack  gas
    scrubbers).   Between  1985  and 2000,  emissions  are expected to in-
   crease slightly because  of higher  copper  output.
                                  76

-------
o  Sulfur oxide releases in the South Central Region (Federal Region
   VI) are projected to triple between 1975 and 2000 under high
   growth economic conditions (and to double under low growth) be-
   cause of rapid increase in use of coal by electric utilities and
   industrial combustors.

o  The only regions in which sulfur oxide releases are projected to
   decline significantly between 1975 and 1985 are the Middle
   Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Western Regions (Federal Regions III,
   V, and IX).  Between 1985 and 2000, this declining trend is
   expected to be arrested because of economic growth.

4.3.1  Introduction

     The 1970 Clean Air Act required that ambient air quality stand-
ards and emission standards be developed for sulfur oxide (SOX)
emissions.

     Nearly all of the direct emissions of sulfur dioxide (802)
into the atmosphere come from human activities.  However, approxi-
mately one-half of the S02 in the atmosphere is generated indirect-
ly as the result of the oxidation of hydrogen sulfide (I^S).
Atmospheric hydrogen sulfide issues from the decay of organic
matter.12

     Although not the most toxic form of sulfur oxide, sulfur dioxide
is the easiest to control through stack gas treatment.  The most
hazardous of the sulfur oxides, sulfates (SO^),  are formed primar-
ily by the oxidation of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere, rather than
being emitted directly by stationary sources.  The regulatory strate-
gy adopted has been to control only sulfur dioxide emissions.  This
has the indirect effect of controlling the formation of sulfates.

     The presence of either sulfur dioxide or sulfates in the atmos-
phere may pose a threat to human health and can degrade the environ-
ment.  Sulfur dioxide appears to exert direct effect on lung
function; some sulfate compounds are suspected carcinogens.^
Exposure can be exacerbated because these sulfur compounds are found
in, or can be readily absorbed in, particulate matter which, when
inhaled, may lodge in the lungs and cause respiratory irritations.
Sulfates have refractive properties that scatter light, reducing
12Stoker, H.S. and S. Seager, Environmental Chemistry;  Air and
  Water Pollution, Scott, Foresman and Company, Glenview, Illinois,
  1976, pp. 65-66.
^National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Sulfur Oxides, Sulfur
  Oxides, Washington, D.C.,  1978, pp. 8-27.
                                  77

-------
visibility even at low concentrations.  They can also increase the
acidity of rainwater, producing acid rainfall that can have wide-
spread adverse effects on aquatic systems.1^  Sulfur dioxide at
high concentrations can severely damage crops and forest land.

     The SEAS model calculates the releases of all sulfur oxide
compounds from stationary and mobile sources, excluding naturally
occurring emissions.  Currently, the system includes state-specific
values for the sulfur content in fossil fuels, state-specific control
requirements, and the sulfur removal ef_iciencies for various flue
gas desulfurization (FGD) techniques.  In addition, the rate with
which old (pre-1976) electric power plants and industrial boilers are
phased out is factored into the scenarios, as are the control
requirements on new and old facilities.

     The SEAS estimates of sulfur oxide residuals in 1975 were com-
pared with information contained in the National Emissions Data
System.  The differences between SEAS and NEDS estimates of total
SOX were minimal.^

4.3.2  Emission Trends for Sulfur Oxides

     General Trends

     National gross generation of sulfur oxides between 1975 and 1985
is projected to increase at a faster rate than GNP.  This rapid
increase (about 4.4 percent per year in the High Growth Scenario) is
expected to occur if coal is widely substituted as fuel in place of
oil and gas.  Gross sulfur oxide generation between 1985 and 2000 is
projected to increase more slowly (about 2.5 percent per year in the
High Growth Scenario).  This rate, which is lower than the GNP growth
rate, is due to a projected long-term decline in gross emissions per
unit of manufacturing output.  It reflects the anticipated impacts of
both energy conservation and a continuing shift of consumer spending
toward service industry goods that can be supplied with fewer pollu-
tants than manufactured goods.

     In spite of the large increases expected in gross generation
levels over time, net sulfur oxide emissions are projected to remain
relatively constant in both scenarios, given full compliance with
^Sawyer, J.W.,  "The Sulfur We Breathe," Environment,  Vol. 20,
  March 1978, pp. 28-29.
1->U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1973 National  Emissions
  Report, National Emissions Data System of the Aerometric Emissions
  Reporting System, EPA-450/2-76-007, May 1976.  (1975 NEDS data were
  not available  at the time of this analysis.)
                                  78

-------
 pollution  controls.  Pollution abatement  through  the  installation  of
 control devices to comply with standards  would result in a  10 percent
 decrease in projected net emissions  in  the High Growth Scenario and
 twice that decrease in the Low Growth Scenario by  1985.  After 1985,
 continued  economic growth would cause net emissions to increase grad-
 ually.  By 2000, net emissions under High Growth conditions are
 expected to be about 6 percent higher than in 1975, while Low Growth
 projections are about 6 percent lower than 1975 levels.

      Since overall scenario differences are relatively small (about
 10 percent) in all years, the following discussion of emissions from
 major sources presents results only  from  the High Growth Scenario
 except where significant differences occur.

      Major Sources

      The principal sources of net sulfur  oxide emissions in 1975 are
 listed in Table 4-4.  Electric utility emissions were by far the
 largest source.  For both utilities and industrial combustion, 90
 percent of the total emissions resulted from coal use.
                              TABLE 4-4
           PRINCIPAL SOURCES OF NET SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS
                                1975
                                  Net
                               Emissions               Percent of
	Source	         (106 Tons)          Total Net Emissions

Electric Utilities                20.5                     69

Industrial Combustion              2.4                      8

Copper Smelting                    2.3                      8

Petroleum Refining                 1.5                      5

Residential/Commercial
Fuel Use                           1.4                      5

Other                              1.6                      5

   Total                          29.7                    100
                                  79

-------
     Trends in sulfur oxide emissions from all major sources are
illustrated in Figure 4-5.  Electric utilities are projected to
remain the single largest source of sulfur oxide through 2000.  The
use of control technologies—primarily limestone (calcium carbonate)
scrubbers, which will probably be used to achieve SIP,  NSPS, and
revised NSPS (BACT) requirements—would result in a decrease of 20
percent in net utility emissions between 1975 and 1985.  Between 1985
and 2000, net emissions from utilities are forecast to  remain fairly
constant, as the retirement of pre-1976 coal- and oil-fired plants
counterbalances the emission increases from new coal-burning instal-
lations.  Net emissions from industrial combustion activity, on the
other hand, are expected to increase between 1975 and 2000, in spite
of the use of emission control technologies because of  a projected
large increase in coal combustion in manufacturing.

     Overall, although gross sulfur oxide emissions from coal combus-
tion would increase rapidly between 1975 and 2000, net  sulfur oxide
emissions would be held to a small increase through use of stack gas
desulfurization techniques.  In 1975, total combustion  of coal by all
sources accounted for about 70 percent of the 30 million tons of net
sulfur oxide emissions.  Between 1975 and 2000,  the use of coal for
fueling combustion processes is projected to increase 250 percent in
the High Growth Scenario, and net sulfur oxide emissions from coal
combustion are projected to increase about 20 percent.   In the Low
Growth Scenario, coal utilization is projected to increase 150 per-
cent, while net sulfur oxide emissions from coal combustion are pro-
jected to decrease about 20 percent.  The installation  of emission
control measures is expected to be especially effective on large
installations (e.g. , industrial boilers burning over 250 million Btu
of coal per hour, and electric utility power plants), which are to be
strictly regulated by Federal New Source Performance Standards.

     Net sulfur oxide emissions from copper smelting are projected to
decline sharply between 1975 and 1985, about 70 percent in the High
Growth Scenario.  Reduced sulfur oxide emissions would  be due primar-
ily to control measures (e.g, single and double contact sulfuric acid
plants and sulfite-bisulfite stack gas scrubbers incorporated into
smelter plants) to meet emission regulations.  Between  1985 and 2000,
net emissions from smelters are expected to increase 10 percent, be-
cause of projected growth in the copper industry's output (about 15
percent).

     Net emissions by petroleum refineries are projected to increase
about 30 percent between 1975 and 2000, while gross emissions in-
crease about 40 percent.  The High Growth Scenario assumes that the
nation will move aggressively to decrease its dependence on imported
crude oil and petroleum products by conserving and/or substituting
other fuels wherever possible.  It is also assumed that the sulfur


                                 80

-------
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Captured



Net
            1975  1985 2000
             RESIDENTIAL/

             COMMERCIAL
                           1975 1985 2000
         COPPER

        SMELTING
                    1975 1985  2000
INDUSTRIAL

COMBUSTION
                                                        1975 1985 2000
PETROLEUM

REFINING
                                                 1975 1985 2000
ELECTRIC

UTILITIES
                                                                                     1975 1985 2000
OTHER
                                                                                                    1975 1985 2000
  TOTAL

EMISSIONS
                                                                       -100




                                                                       - 90




                                                                       - 80




                                                                       - 70




                                                                       - 60




                                                                       - 50




                                                                       - 40




                                                                       - 30




                                                                       — 20




                                                                       — 10
                                                                                                                        tn


                                                                                                                        1
                                                                                                                        CO
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                                                                                                   z
                                                                                                   c
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                                                                                                                        CO
                                                         FIGURE 4-5

                                    TRENDS IN SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS, BY SOURCE

                                                 HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

                                                       1975, 1985, 2000

-------
content of petroleum will remain constant despite economic incentives
to refine oil with a higher sulfur content.   Reductions in total pet-
roleum use between 1975 and 2000 are recorded in some end use cate-
gories (e.g., auto travel, commercial and residential consumption).
However, continued growth in petroleum demand in other segments of
the economy (particularly industrial and commercial feedstock uses,
trucking and air travel) overshadow these improvements and result in
required additions to refinery capacity.  Gross emissions are assumed
to be somewhat controlled by the use of Glaus sulfur recovery plants
and tail gas treatment.  Net emissions from residential and commer-
cial sources are expected to increase about 20 percent between 1975
and 2000.

     The difference between the scenarios in projections of net
sulfur oxide emissions (10 percent lower in Low Growth) is primarily
due to the fact that sulfur oxide emissions from industrial combus-
tion are 35 percent lower under Low Growth conditions than High
Growth.  Utility-related emissions, on the other hand, differ between
scenarios by less than 5 percent in all years.  Due to the slower
retirement rate for old power plants in the Low Growth Scenario,
sulfur oxide emission rates per unit of electricity output are cor-
respondingly higher.  Consequently, total utility emissions continue
to differ only slightly between scenarios in spite of the widening
disparity in the assumed amount of new coal power plant construction.

     Analysis of Regional Trends

     Regional variations from the national trend in net sulfur oxide
emissions (a 5 percent increase between 1975 and 2000 in the High
Growth Scenario) are illustrated in Figure 4-6.  In the High Growth
Scenario, emissions in the South Central, Mountain and Northwest
Regions (Federal Regions VI, VIII, X) are projected to increase much
faster than this national trend, and emissions in New England
(Federal Region I) are projected to grow at a moderately faster rate.
Conversely, major reductions in sulfur oxide loadings are presumed to
occur in the Great Lakes and Western Regions (Federal Regions V and
IX).  Even in the Low Growth Scenario, where national sulfur oxide
emissions decline by 5 percent, emissions in Federal Regions I and VI
increase.

     In Federal Region VI, net sulfur oxide emissions are projected
to more than triple in the High Growth Scenario and to more than
double in the Low Growth Scenario between 1975 and 2000, as illustra-
ted in Figure 4-7. These increases are the result of extremely rapid
growth in coal and oil use in both new industrial boilers and elec-
tric utilities.
                                  82

-------
   30 -
  25 -
« 20
55
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S  15 -
CO
to
   10 -
   5 -
                      REGION II

                      New York -

                      New Jersey
                               FIGURE 4-6
              TRENDS IN REGIONAL SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS
                              1975 AND 2000
                                  83

-------
  30 -
  25 -
  20 -
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02
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          REGION VI

         South Central
                                 FIGURE 4-6
                                 CONTINUED
                                      84

-------
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                        FIGURE 4-7
           TRENDS IN NET SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS
                        REGION VI
                       1975 AND 2000
                            85

-------
     Net sulfur oxide emissions in Federal Regions VIII and X are
projected to double between 1975 and 2000.  Increases in coal and
oil-fired power generation in these Federal Regions, as in Federal
Region VI, are a major source of added emissions.  In Federal Regions
VIII and X, however, other energy production and processing
activities also generate large increases in sulfur oxide loadings—
initiation of oil shale development in the mountain states and
increased petroleum refining activity in the northwest area.

     In Federal Region I, net emissions are projected to increase by
one-fifth in the High Growth Scenario between 1975 and 2000, because
of greater use of coal by electric utilities.  This is partly due to
assumed compliance with the fuel substitution requirements enacted
under the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of
1974.1"  These existing plants are subject to SIP emission limita-
tions, which generally are less stringent than NSPS standards.  The
increased use of coal in the northeast may contribute to existing
acid rain and sulfur oxide (SC^) non-attainment problems.  Ambient
sulfur oxide levels are affected by both locally generated emissions
and atmospheric transport of pollutants from other areas.

     The Great Lakes and Western Regions (Federal Regions V and IX)
are the only Federal Regions in which net emissions of sulfur oxides
are projected to decline significantly over time.  The major decline
in Federal Region V emissions results from full compliance with the
SIP standards placed on electric utilities, and this effect is supple-
mented by the fact that growth in gross sulfur oxide levels is some-
what inhibited by lagging economic growth in the Federal Region.  In
Federal Region IX, overall sulfur oxide reductions can be directly
traced to the addition of effective control measures (primarily in
the form of single and double contact sulfuric acid [112804]
plates) placed on copper smelters in the area.  In both Federal
Regions, emissions are reduced sharply (40 to 50 percent) between
1975 and 1985, and then increase slightly between 1985 and 2000 due
to continued growth in industrial•output without additional improve-
ments in abatement efficiencies.

4.4  NITROGEN OXIDES

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 4.4

o  Nitrogen oxides can have significant adverse effects on human
   health and the environment.  In addition to direct respiratory
   effects, atmospheric NOX is an important contributor to photo-
   chemical smog and acid precipitation.
16Public Law 93-319, 88 Stat. 246, 15 U.S.C. 791 et seq,
                                 86

-------
o  Electric power generation and motor vehicle  transportation are ex-
   pected  to account  for about one—third each of NOX generation
   from  1975 to 2000.

o  Growth  in fuel use  for  industrial combustion is projected to
   increase net NOX emissions from that source  threefold under high
   economic growth conditions between 1975 and  2000.

o  Because of  transportation emission controls, net emissions from
   mobile  sources are  projected to decline between 1975 and 2000,
   even  though transportation activity increases.

o  Emissions in the Southeast, South Central, Mountain, and North-
   west  Regions (Federal Regions IV, VI, VIII, and X) are projected
   to increase more rapidly than the national average.  Emission
   levels  in the New England and New York-New Jersey Regions (Federal
   Regions I and II) are expected to increase more slowly than the
   national average.

4.4.1  Introduction

     The nitrogen oxides (NOX) of interest here are compounds of
nitrogen and oxygen that are formed during the combustion of fossil
fuels.   Although ambient air quality standards for nitrogen dioxide
(N02> were established as  part of the 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments
few sources of nitrogen oxide emissions are currently required to
adopt controls.  Increasing concern over the health effects of nitro-
gen dioxide and possible interaction of nitrogen oxides with other
atmospheric pollutants has stimulated the evaluation of the need for
a short-term (3-hour) standard that would require stricter emission
controls during periods in which emissions are greatest (i.e. , "rush
hours").  New standards that may be more stringent than those pre-
sently in force are therefore being considered.

     Nitrogen oxides are believed to have significant negative
effects on health and the environment,  either directly or through
nitrogen oxide (particularly nitrogen dioxide) participation in
photochemical reactions.  Direct effects of nitrogen oxide emissions
include  lowered resistance to respiratory infections,  impaired
pulmonary function,  and damage to materials and  vegetation.^'
Indirect, but often more significant effects result from the interac-
tion of nitrogen oxides with other pollutants to form photochemical
oxidants.18  Other adverse effects include formation of acid rain,
1'National Academy of Sciences, Nitrogen Oxides, Washington, B.C.,
  1977, pp. 159.
18
1 The effects of  photochemical oxidants are discussed in Sections
  4.7.1 and 4.8.6.

                                  87

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which results after nitrogen dioxide reacts with water in the air to
form nitric acid (HNO-j), and atmospheric nitrates.  The presence of
nitrate aerosols and salts in the atmosphere is suspected of
contributing to respiratory disorders, elevated levels of
methemoglobin (particularly in children), contamination of land and
water through precipitation containing nitrates, and formation of
photochemical smog.  However, the data available on health and
environmental effects of nitrates are inconclusive.1"

     Current technology for controlling nitrogen oxide emissions is
largely limited to combustion modifications.  Experimentation with
nitrogen oxide scrubbers is currently under way in both this country
and Japan.20

     The SEAS data base is well suited to the projection of nitrogen
oxide emissions.  Energy production and consumption activities, the
primary sources of nitrogen oxides are treated in great detail within
the model.  Projections of emissions reflect distinctions among
alternative energy production processes and among applicable environ-
mental regulations.  The model estimates nitrogen oxide emissions
from five transportation modes:  automobile, bus, truck, air, and
rail.

     Comparisons of SEAS nitrogen oxides estimates for 1975 with
nitrogen oxides data for 1973 from EPA's National Emissions Data
System indicate close correspondence.  These estimates were found to
differ by less than 10 percent.21

4.4.2  Emission Trends for Nitrogen Oxides

     For 1975, gross and net emissions of nitrogen oxides were essen-
tially the same, since there were no control requirements for most
sources.  Of the four major sources of net nitrogen oxides releases
^National Academy of Sciences, Nitrates:  An Environmental
  Assessment, Washington, D.C., 1978, Chapter 1.
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1973 National Emissions
  Report, National Emission Data System for the Aerometric Emissions
  Reporting System, EPA-450/2-76-007, May 1976.
^lu.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Technical Assessment of
  N0y Removal Processes for Utility Application, Interagency
  Energy-Environment Research and Development Program Report,
  EPA-600/7-77-127, November 1977, p. xiv.
                                 88

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(Table 4-5), electric power generation and motor vehicle travel were
by far the most significant.  Almost two-thirds of utility-related
emissions were from coal-fired power plants.  Emissions from  trans-
portation activity were about equally divided between automobiles and
trucks.

     Gross emissions of nitrogen oxides are projected to increase
over time in all 10 Federal Regions at a rate somewhat faster than
the rate of growth assumed for total energy consumption because of
expected increases in coal use by industry and electric utilities.
Although oxides of nitrogen are primarily formed during combustion
processes by the interaction of nitrogen in the air with oxygen in
the presence of heat, the levels of nitrogen oxides formed are some-
what dependent on the temperature at which combustion occurs and the
nitrogen content of the fuel being burned.  Due to these latter

                              TABLE 4-5
          PRINCIPAL SOURCES OF NET NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS
                                1975

Electric Utilities
Transportation
Industrial Combustion
Petroleum Refining
Othera
Total
Net
Emissions
(106 Tons)
6.3
6.2
2.0
1.5
2.6
18.6

Percent of
Total Net Emissions
34
33
11
8
14
100
aSources each of which emits less than 6 percent of the total.
                                 89

-------
factors, both utility and industrial coal-fired boilers are estimated
to generate significantly higher levels of nitrogen oxides per Btu
combusted than oil-fired units (about 30 percent).  Both fuels, in
turn, generate somewhat higher levels of nitrogen oxides than gas
combustors.

     By 2000, gross emissions in the High Growth Scenario are projec-
ted to be 90 percent higher nationally than in 1975; in the Low
Growth case, the projected increase is 55 percent.  The difference
between scenarios in nitrogen oxides discharges is less than 15 per-
cent in 1985 and about 20 percent in 2000.  These differences are
almost equal to the projected differences in energy use between the
two scenarios.  Utilities and transportation would remain the princi-
pal emission sources in all years for both scenarios, although nitro-
gen oxides releases from industrial combustion are projected to
become more significant over time.

     Trends in net nitrogen oxide emissions from major sources under
the High Growth Scenario are illustrated in Figure 4-8.  By 2000, the
relative importance of these sources changes sharply; the extensive
use of coal and oil in place of natural gas as an industrial boiler
fuel results in a threefold increase in combustion-related pollutants
from 1975 to 2000.

     Although transportation activity is projected to increase, net
emissions from mobile sources would decline in both scenarios because
of the assumed implementation of transportation emission controls.
The diverging relationship between elements affecting transportation
emission projections is shown in Table 4-6.

     Total nitrogen oxide emissions projected under the Low Growth
Scenario are about 10 percent lower than those under High Growth con-
ditions. Estimates from the two scenarios for 2000 are contrasted in
Table 4-7.  It is somewhat surprising that the two cases do not
diverge more sharply over time.  Much of this effect is due to trends
in electric utility industries, as projected nitrogen oxide emissions
from this source differ between scenarios by only 2.4 percent in
2000.  In the Low Growth Scenario, nitrogen oxide emissions from old
(pre-1976) utilities would remain uncontrolled under current environ-
mental standards, while control requirements for new sources would
result in moderate emission reductions through modifications such as
staged combustion.  Therefore, the slower rates of power plant
retirement assumed in the Low Growth Scenario result in higher levels
of nitrogen oxide emissions per unit of electricity production.
                                  90

-------
tL,
O
    40 -
    35 -
    30 -
   25 -
o
KH

iJ
£  20 -

[/:

o

«  15
h-J
f.
10 -

 8 -

 6 -

 4 -

 2 -
                   Gross
                Captured
                    Net
                           m
                                                     H
        1975 1985 2000
                       1975 1985  2000
                                     1975 1985 2000
                                                    1975 1985 2000
                                                               1975 1985 2000
                                                                                  1975 1985 2000
          PETROLEU't
           REFINING
                     INDUSTRIAL
                     COMBUSTION
OTHER
ELECTRIC
UTILITIES
                          TRANSPORTATION
  TOTAL
EMISSIONS
                                           FIGURE 4-8
                    TRENDS IN NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS, BY SOURCE
                                   HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                         1975,1985, 2000

-------
                              TABLE 4-6
          TRENDS IN MOTOR VEHICLE TRANSPORTATION ACTIVITY,
            ENERGY USE, AND NET NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS
                              1975-2000
Auto and Truck
Vehicle Miles
Traveled
   (1012 VMT)
                             High Growth
                                Low  Growth
                                          Percent             Percent
                                          Change              Change
                    Amount in  Amount in   From    Amount in   From
                      1975       2000      1975      2000      1975
 2.3
Auto and Truck Net
NOX Emissions
   (106 Tons)          6.2
5.1
Auto and Truck
Energy Consumption
   (1015 BTU)         14.1       14.1
            4.6
121.7
                      -0.1
         -25.8
3.2
39.1
                    8.3     -14.1
           2.9     -53.2
                              TABLE 4-7
         SCENARIO COMPARISON OF NET NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS
                                2000
Source
Electric Utilities
Industrial Combustion
Transportation
Petroleum Refining
Other
Total
High Growth
Emissions
(106 Tons)
9.2
5.5
4.6
2.2
5.0
26.5
Low Growth
Emissions
(106 Tons)
9.0
4.1
2.9
1.8
5.7
23.5
Scenario
Difference
(Percent)
-2.2
-25.5
-37.0
-18.2
+14.0
-11.3
 Scenario Difference!
(Low Growth - High Growth)
        High Growth
                               92

-------
     Regionally, both High and Low Growth  Scenarios assume a contin-
ued movement of population and industrial  activity from northeastern
urban areas to the sunbelt portions of  the country.  In addition,
certain areas of the country  (such as Texas and the Rocky Mountain
states) are expected to greatly expand  their use of coal as a combus-
tion fuel.  Consequently, gross and net nitrogen oxide emissions in
Federal Regions IV, VI, VIII, and X grow much more rapidly than the
national average.  In New England and New  York-New Jersey (Federal
Regions I and II), coal currently represents a very small fraction of
total fuel use and thus even  though coal use is projected to increase
dramatically, slow economic growth should  result in slow growth in
total energy consumption, and hence nitrogen oxide emissions which
grow at a lower rate than the national  average.  These regional
trends are illustrated in Figure 4-9.

     The mix of emission sources within each region in 1975 approxi-
mated that of the nation as a whole.  Mobile sources were the largest
contributors to net nitrogen oxides discharges in all regions except
the Middle Atlantic, Southeast, and Great  Lakes Regions (Federal
Regions III, IV, and V), where coal- and oil-fired power plants were
the principal source.

     Detailed information on  the sources of net nitrogen oxide emis-
sion increases in the South Central and Mountain Regions (Federal
Regions VI and VIII) is shown in Figures 4-10 and 4-11.  In the South
Central Region (Federal Region VI), and also in the Southeast Region
(Federal Region IV), major increases in industrial coal applications
are projected to expand very rapidly, particularly in the High Growth
Scenario.  This adds to the projected increase in nitrogen oxide
emissions attributable to population growth, and amplifies subsequent
impacts of this growth on polluting activities.  Similarly, Figure
4-11 illustrates the sharp increases in utility-related nitrogen
oxide emissions in Federal Region VIII.  Despite the relatively lower
economic growth conditions assumed for the northeastern portion of
the United States (Federal Regions I, II, and III) in both scenarios,
gross and net nitrogen oxide emissions still would increase in these
regions due to growth in energy use.

4.5  HYDROCARBONS

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 4.5

o  In 1975,  over three-fourths of the urban counties in the United
   States failed to comply with primary ambient air standards for
   photochemical oxidants.  Hydrocarbon emissions,  which contribute
   to the formation of oxidants,  rank as a significant air quality
   problem.
                                 93

-------
                 REGION II
                 New York -
                 New Jersey
REGION III
  Middle
 Atlantic
NOTE:  In 1975, net and gross emissions are virtually identical since
      controls had not yet been applied.
                           FIGURE 4-9
      TRENDS IN REGIONAL NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS
                          1975 AND 2000
                               94

-------
   7 -
   6 -
   5 -
o
E-
C

to
K
O
   3  -
   2 -
   1 -
          REGION VI

        South Central
                               FIGURE 4-9

                              CONTINUED
                                   95

-------
    2.5-
    2.0-
en
§
M
i-l   .
hJ   1.5
IO
IS
O
M
co
CO
    1.0-
    0.5-
                                               Gross
          1975  High Low
                 2000
            ELECTRIC
            UTILITIES
1975
      High Low
        2000
  INDUSTRIAL
  COMBUSTION
1975
      High Low
        2000
TRANSPORTATION
1975
      High Low
        2000
  PETROLEUM
  REFINING
 AND STORAGE
1975
      High Low
        2000
     OTHER
  INDUSTRIES
        NOTE:  Gross transportation emissions based upon emission rates from pre-1968 motor
               vehicles.   Engine deterioration based on average vehicle age of  5.99 years for
               autos,  and  7.15 years for  trucks.  Engine deterioration emission factor based
               upon pre-1968 vehicles.
                                    FIGURE 4-10
                    NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS, BY SOURCE
                                     REGION VI
                                   1975 AND 2000
                                           96

-------
    0.7-
    0.6-
ts
o
H
d
§
t/3
C/5
    0.5-
0.4 -
    0.3-
    0.2
    0.1-
          1975
                High Low
                  2000
             ELECTRIC
             UTILITIES
                          1975
                           High Low
                             2000
                        INDUSTRIAL
                        COMBUSTION
                                          v.v.v.
                                          m

                                             • Gross


                                              Captured

                                              Net
                                          1975
      High Low
        2000
TRANSPORTATION
1975  High Low
        2000
  PETROLEUM
  REFINING
  AND  STORAGE
                                                                         II
1975   High Low
        2000
     OTHER
  INDUSTRIES
         NOTE:   Gross  transportation emissions based upon emission  rates from pre-1968 motor
                vehicles.  Engine deterioration based on average vehicle age of 5.99 years  for
                autos, and 7.15 years for trucks.  Engine deterioration emission factor based
                upon pre-1968 vehicles.
                                       FIGURE4-11
                      NITROGEN OXIDE EMISSIONS, BY SOURCE
                                       REGION VIII
                                     1975 AND 2000
                                            97

-------
o  Automobile and truck transportation accounted for over one-half
   the hydrocarbon emissions in 1975, and surface coatings and petro-
   leum refining accounted for an additional one-fourth.

o  Hydrocarbon releases are expected to decline substantially between
   1975 and 1985, and remain relatively constant from 1985 to 2000,
   because of projected reductions in emissions from transportation
   sources as a result of compliance with present mobile source
   abatement requirements.

o  The petroleum refining industry is the only major source of hydro-
   carbon emissions that is projected to generate increased pollu-
   tants from 1975 through 2000.

o  Emission standards are more stringent for automobiles than for
   trucks; thus improvements in hydrocarbon emission levels are pro-
   jected to be greater in the more urbanized eastern half of the
   country, where the ratio of automobile to truck travel is the
   highest.

o  Although net hydrocarbon emissions are projected to decrease from
   1975 to 2000 for all Federal Regions, the decrease is expected to
   be slower in the South Central and Mountain Regions (Federal
   Regions VI and VIII) than in other regions because of increases in
   emissions from industrial sources, most notably petroleum refining
   and storage.

4.5.1  Introduction

     The term hydrocarbons (HC) represents a broad range of hydro-
carbon compounds released to the environment in gaseous form (e.g.,
benzene, toluene).  Unsaturated, or reactive hydrocarbon compounds
interact with nitrogen oxides in the presence of sunlight to produce
photochemical oxidants, such as ozone (03) and peroxyacetylnitrates
(PAN).  These hydrocarbons exert indirect effects on health and
welfare, in part as precursors to photochemical oxidants.  Signifi-
cant adverse health effects, such as high carcinogenic potential, are
associated with certain subspecies of hydrocarbons (e.g., benzene).
However, no single consistent set of health effects can be associated
with hydrocarbons in general.  The National Ambient Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS) for hydrocarbons are expressed in terms of a 3-hour
average measured during peak driving hours (6 a.m. to 9 a.m.), while
oxidant levels are measured hourly.
                                  98

-------
     Although only about 15 percent of total atmospheric hydrocarbon
is produced through human activities;^  these releases are signifi-
cant because they are concentrated in densely populated areas and
because they are more reactive.  Much of the natural hydrocarbon is
methane arising from bacterial decomposition in swamps and other
water bodies.  Such natural hydrocarbon is released over wide areas
and is not usually a significant contributor to urban oxidant prob-
lems.  The SEAS model measures only the releases caused by human
activities.

     The SEAS projections of total net hydrocarbon emissions for 1975
are about one-third the National Emissions Data System (NEDS) pro-
jections for 1976.23  NEDS projected that in 1975 about 29.6
million tons of hydrocarbon were emitted from all sources, while SEAS
projected that 13.5 million tons of hydrocarbon were emitted.

     The largest single source of this discrepancy is solvent evapo-
ration.  Although SEAS estimates hydrocarbons from solvent produc-
tion, it does not contain estimates for solvent evaporation during
the use of the products.  NEDS estimated over 8 million tons of
hydrocarbon emissions from miscellaneous solvent use.  Similarly, 2.8
million tons of hydrocarbons were produced by evaporation during
chemical manufacturing in 1975 according to NEDS, while SEAS pro-
jections for these sources are under a million tons.  The final major
discrepancy is emissions from transportation.  SEAS projected that
7.4 million tons of hydrocarbons were emitted from transportation
activities, while NEDS projected that 13 million tons of hydrocarbons
were emitted from transportation sources.

     As a result of these discrepancies, forecasts of hydrocarbon
emissions by SEAS are probably low in each projection year.  NEDS
projected that for each ton of solvent produced there is a ton of
hydrocarbons emitted.  Since SEAS does not project emissions from
solvent evaporation, the SEAS forecasts of hydrocarbons will be low
by the amount of solvent produced in each forecast year.  Emissions
of hydrocarbons from the chemical industry forecast by SEAS are
probably less than half the actual emissions of hydrocarbons from
that industry.  Finally, SEAS projections of hydrocarbons from
transportation activities are limited to exhaust pipe discharges,
while NEDS includes emissions from additional sources such as
o n
  American Chemical Society, Cleaning Our Environment:  A Chemical
  Perspective, Second Edition, Washington, D.C., 1978, p. 124.
  U.S.Environmental Protection Agency, National Emissions Report,
  1976, National Emissions Data System of the Aerometric and
  Emissions Reporting System, National Air Data Branch, Monitoring
  and Data Analysis.  Research Triangle Park, N.C., August, 1979.
                                 99

-------
manifold and lubricant evaporation.  Thus the difference in hydro-
carbons emissions between SEAS and NEDS will probably remain about
constant over time.

     Methods to account for evaporative losses currently are being
developed for SEAS, and will be part of the model by summer, 1980.
This should close most of the gaps between the SEAS and NEDS data
bases by accounting for emissions during the use of materials such as
solvents as well as emissions from their manufacture.  A new trans-
portation model is also ready for use by SEAS.  This model is
designed to calculate accurate projections of emissions from trans-
portation activities.

4.5.2  Emissions Trends for Hydrocarbons

     The principal sources of net hydrocarbon emissions in 1975 are
listed in Table 4-8.  More than half are due to transportation, with
automobile travel accounting for 60 percent and trucking, 40 percent.
These releases, through interactions with nitrogen oxide emissions,
probably contributed to major air quality problems, as more than
three-fourths of the urban counties in the United States failed to
attain the primary National Ambient Air Quality Standard for photo-
chemical oxidants. ^

     Net hydrocarbon releases are projected in both scenarios to
decline substantially between 1975 and 1985 and remain relatively
                              TABLE 4-8
           PRINCIPAL SOURCES OF NET HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
                                1975

Source
Transportation
Auto
Truck
Paints
Petroleum Refining
Other
Total
Net
Emissions
(lOl Tons)
7.4
4.4
3.0
1.6
1.4
3.1
13.5


Percent of
Total Net Emissions
55
—
12
11
22
100





aSources each of which emits less than 6 percent of the total
 24Federal Register, March 3,  1978, pp. 8692 ff.

                                 100

-------
constant  thereafter.  Trends in emissions from major  sources for  the
High Growth Scenario are displayed in Figure 4-12.  Much of the
initial decline is in transportation emissions, reflecting the impact
of compliance with present mobile source abatement requirements.  In
the 1985  to 2000 time period, improvements in emission controls would
extend over the entire automobile fleet and further reduce hydrocar-
bon emissions.  The use of water-based paints in place of solvent-
based paints also would reduce emissions, as application of solvent-
based paints releases hydrocarbons.

     The  only significant hydrocarbon source projected to generate
increased pollutants throughout the 1975-2000 period  is petroleum
refining  and storage.  Improvements in abatement practices expected
for this  industry would retard but not halt the growth in net emis-
sions resulting from rising petroleum demands.  However, the expected
shift away from liquid hydrocarbon fuels toward coal  use could dampen
growth in emissions.

     In the Low Growth Scenario, net hydrocarbon discharges will be
15 and 25 percent lower than High Growth in 1985 and  2000, respec-
tively. Discharges by major emission sources for both scenarios in
2000 are compared in Table 4-9.  The source of the largest scenario
difference is transportation, which is affected by the slower econo-
mic growth, higher energy prices, and other shifts assumed in the Low
Growth Scenario.  These factors combined, result in substantially
lower transportation activity and hence, in lower mobile source
emissions.

                              TABLE 4-9
      SCENARIO COMPARISON OF NET NATIONAL HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
                                2000
     Source
Transportation
Paints
Petroleum Refining
Other

    Total
High Growth
Emissions
(106 Tons)

     4.1
     1.0
     2.0
     3.0

    10.1
Low Growth
Emissions
(106 Tons)

    2.6
    0.8
    1.6
    2.6

    7.6
 Scenario
Differencea
 (Percent)

   -36.5
   -20.9
   -20.0
   -13.3

   -24.9
Scenario Difference = (Low Growth - High Growth)
                              High Growth
                                 101

-------
o
to
             o
             H
             §
             §
             1/3
             z
             o
             M
             in
             en
             M

             §
                 25 -
                 20 -
                 15 -
10 -
                          KSS3
              Gross




              Captured



              Net
                      1975 1985  2000
                         PAINTS
                                    1975 1985 2000
                      OTHER

                     SOURCES
                                                          11
                                                          m
                                                  1975 1985 2000
PETROLEUM

 REFINING
                                                                1975 1985 2000
                                                               TRANSPORTATION
                                                                                          - 50
                                                                             1975  1985 2000
  TOTAL

EMISSIONS
                                                                               en

                                                                               §
                                                                               H

                                                                               to
                                                                               O
                                                                                          - 30
                                                                         - 20
                                                                                          - 10
                                             cn
                                             2
                                             O
                                             M
                                             tn
                                             tn
                                                  FIGURE 4-12

                              TRENDS IN HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS, BY SOURCE

                                           HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

                                                 1975,1985,2000

-------
     As was the case nationally, emission reductions in each region
would result largely from implementing more stringent motor vehicle
emission controls.  Since automobiles are controlled more closely
than trucks, the improvements in emission levels are more pronounced
in the more urbanized areas east of the Mississippi, where auto
travel constitutes a relatively high share of total motor vehicle
miles traveled.

     The changes in HC emissions projected to occur in each region
are illustrated in Figure 4-13.  In the South Central and Mountain
Regions (Federal Regions VI and VIII), total net emissions decrease
at a slower rate than in other regions as a result of increases in
emissions from major industrial sources.  In both regions, emissions
from petroleum refining and storage were a substantial component of
1975 discharges.  Because of continued growth in product demand,
emissions are projected to increase slightly, even though abatement
technology is implemented.  Emission increases would occur in Region
VI as a result of growth in the paint and organic chemical indus-
tries.

4.6  CARBON MONOXIDE AND DIOXIDE

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 4.6

o  Although less than 10 percent of global atmospheric carbon monox-
   ide results from human activity, as much as 98 percent of carbon
   monoxide in urban areas results from human sources,  especially
   automobile travel.

o  The buildup of carbon dioxide from combustion activity may eventu-
   ally exceed the earth's assimilative capacity, resulting in long-
   range adverse effects on climate.  Both carbon monoxide and carbon
   dioxide are environmentally hazardous.

o  Current air quality standards regulate carbon monoxide emissions
   but not carbon dioxide emissions.

o  Pollution control devices, engine design improvements, and the use
   of mass transit alternatives to personal auto travel are expected
   to reduce auto emissions more than two-thirds from 1975 to 2000.
   Truck emissions,  which are less strictly regulated,  are expected
   to decline by only one-third between 1975 and 2000.

o  Carbon monoxide emissions from all sources are expected to be cut
   in half from 1975 to 2000 under high economic growth and to
   decrease 40 percent under lower economic growth primarily because
   of reduced transportation emissions.
                                 103

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                                                        EMISSIONS  (MILLIONS OF TONS)
   3D
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   D
   3D
   m
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o O w
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  10  -
   9  -
   8 -
•z.
o
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 .
Z
c
6 -
   5 -
in
v.
   3 —
   2 -
   1 -
        1975
           High Low
             2000
                       1975
High Low
  2000
                                       1975
High Low
  2000
                                                      1975
High Low
  2000
                                                                      1975
High Low
  2000
          REGION VI
         South Central
                      REGION VII
                        Central
           REGION VIII
             Mountain
            REGION IX
               West
             REGION  X
             Northwest
                                    FIGURE 4-13
                                    CONTINUED
                                          105

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o  Increased emissions from the steel industry due to greater utili-
   zation of basic oxygen furnaces (in place of open hearth furnaces)
   may have a significant impact on emissions in the New York-New
   Jersey and Great Lakes Regions (Federal Regions II and V), while
   the pulp and paper industry, which has no CO emission controls, is
   expected to increase local emissions in parts of the Southeast and
   South Central Regions (Federal Regions IV and VI).

4.6.1  Introduction

     More than 90 percent of global atmospheric carbon monoxide
(CO)—an odorless, colorless, and relatively inert gas—comes from
natural sources, such as the oxidation of methane produced by decay-
ing organic matter.  However, carbon monoxide emissions from human
activities pose the larger threat to human health because they are
concentrated in urban environments,  where as much as 98 percent of
atmospheric carbon monoxide results from human activity.  Over 90
percent of this amount results from transportation, mainly automobile
travel.  Carbon monoxide is believed to cause adverse health effects,
including exacerbation of angina and other cardiovascular disease
symptoms, as well as impairment of vision and physical coordination,
headaches, and nausea. ->

     Carbon monoxide emissions, like hydrocarbons, are formed as the
result of the incomplete combustion of hydrocarbon fuels.  Measures
to control emissions can take the form of either improvements in the
efficiency of the combustion process (e.g. ,  by increasing air-to-fuel
ratios or raising combustpr temperature)  or  the addition of control
devices (e.g., afterburners for industrial sources, catalytic con-
verters for mobile sources).  In either case, carbon monoxide is con-
trolled through its conversion into carbon dioxide.

     Further environmental hazards may be resulting from the contin-
ued build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (see discussion of
global atmospheric problems in Chapter 5).  The rapidly increasing
production and release of carbon dioxide  from combustion activity,
added to the carbon dioxide released from natural sources,  may be
creating total loadings that exceed the earth's assimilative capaci-
ty.  There has been speculation that this trend may result  in long-
range adverse effects on climatic conditions.  Current air  quality
regulations do not restrict levels of carbon dioxide generation
because no impacts of carbon dioxide levels  on human health or
9 S
•'-'Stoker, H.S. and S.L. Seager,  Environmental Chemistry:   Air and
  Water Pollution, Glenview, Illinois,  1976.   Also,  American Chemical
  Society, Cleaning Our Environment:   A Chemical Perspective,
  Washington, D.C. , 1978.
                                 106

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welfare have yet been proven.  The increases in carbon dioxide
resulting from carbon monoxide controls are not expected to greatly
exacerbate the conditions described above.  Even if all the man-made
carbon monoxide emissions reported in 1975 (estimated at 93 million
tons) were transformed through combustion or catalytic oxidation into
carbon dioxide, the carbon dioxide emissions emitted from this source
would represent only a small fraction of the total estimated carbon
dioxide loading.

     Mobile source (transportation) emissions data used in SEAS were
                 •               fy /•
derived from a recent EPA study.zo  The SEAS estimates of total
national carbon dioxide emissions based on this data were about 10
percent higher than the estimates for 1973 from the National Emission
Data System,27 a difference readily explained by the slight
differences in assumptions and accounting conventions.

4.6.2  Emissions Trends for Carbon Monoxide

     The application of pollution control devices for transportation
equipment, coupled with improved engine design, is expected to result
in a 70 percent reduction in auto emissions between 1975 and 2000
(Table 4-10).  However, emissions from trucks,  under more lenient
mobile source standards,  are expected to decline by only one-third
between 1975 and 2000.

     In the High Growth Scenario, total net carbon monoxide emissions
are projected to be cut in half between 1975 and 1985, and then level
off.  Under Low Growth conditions, reductions are expected to contin-
ue beyond 1985; this is attributable to greater use of mass transit
as alternatives to personal auto travel.  In a  comparison of the two
scenarios by 2000,  total  net emissions are projected to be 30 percent
lower in the Low Growth Scenario than in the High Growth, and automo-
bile and truck emissions  each would be about 35 percent lower as a
result of assumed lower economic growth, high oil prices, and trans-
portation modal shifts.  The actual extent of these projected reduc-
tions will depend heavily on the implementation of control
technologies.
9 f\
zaU.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Compilation of Air
  Pollutant Factors, 2nd Ed., Document AP-42,  Supplement No.  5,
  Washington, D.C., 1975.
2'U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1973 National Emissions
  Report, National Emissions Data System of the Aerometric Emissions
  Reporting System, EPA-450/2-76-007,  May 1976, p. 5.  (The most
  recent data published in NEDS were not available for this
  analysis.)
                                 107

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                                                   TABLE 4-10

                         COMPARISON OF NET CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS FROM HUMAN ACTIVITY

                                                1975 and 2000
                                                                2000
o
00
1975
io6
Source Tons
Auto Travel 51.5
Truck Travel 32.4
Steel
Production 4.6
Other 4.7
Total 93.2
a
Percent 10
of Total Tons
55
35
5
5
100
(Low
16.
22.
6.
7.
52.
Growth
2
1
5
8
6
-
High Growth Low Growth
Percent of Percent 10 Percent of Percent
1975 Total of Total Tons 1975 Total of Total
32 31 10.3 20
68 42 14.0 43
141 12 5.4 116
166 15 7.2 153
56 100 36.9 40
High Growth)
28
38
15
19
100

Scenario
pt
Difference
(Percent)
-37
-37
-18
- 9
-30

                                     High Growth

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     Net carbon monoxide emissions from manufacturing activities are
expected to increase about 70 percent between 1975 and 2000 in the
High Growth Scenario and increase one-third in the Low Growth
Scenario.  In the High Growth Scenario, carbon monoxide emissions
from steel production are projected to increase by only about 40 per-
cent between 1975 and 2000,   with the bulk of this increase due to
greater utilization of basic oxygen furnaces in place of open hearth
furnaces.  Carbon monoxide emissions from industrial sources other
than steel (particularly pulp and paper manufacturing) are expected
to double between 1975 and 2000, but these would remain a small com-
ponent of national carbon monoxide emissions.  Trends in emissions
from all major sources are illustrated in Figure 4-14 for the High
Growth Scenario.

     Trends in net carbon monoxide emissions at the regional level
reflect the national projections, with all regions showing emission
declines of 40 to 60 percent between 1975 and 2000, assuming effec-
tive implementation of pollution control for mobile sources.  Region-
al trends in CO emissions are shown for both scenarios in Figure
4-15.  In view of current failures to attain air quality standards,
the downward trends in the New England and New York-New Jersey
Regions (Federal Regions I and II) are especially significant, even
though current emissions in these regions are lower than those in a
number of the other regions.  The five most heavily populated
regions—Middle Atlantic, Southeast, Great Lakes, South Central, and
Western (Federal Regions III, IV, V, VI, and IX)—also exhibit the
highest carbon monoxide emissions, and exposure of people in these
areas to carbon monoxide emissions represents a large potential
health hazard.  In contrast, estimated emissions for the Central,
Mountain, and Northwest Regions (Federal Regions VII, VIII, and X)
are relatively insignificant.

     In all regions, emissions of carbon monoxide from industrial
sources are dwarfed by the large amounts of emissions from automo-
biles and trucks.  However,  trends in several regions are influenced
by emissions projected for various industrial sources, notably steel
production and pulp and paper manufacturing.  Emissions from steel
production would increase in the New York-New Jersey and the South-
east Regions (Federal Regions II and IV).  In the Southeast Region
the pulp and paper industry is projected to become a substantial
carbon monoxide source by 2000, assuming that no pollution controls
for carbon monoxide are required of this industry.  Emissions would
increase over 150 percent between 1975 and 2000 in the High Growth
Scenario, and over 100 percent in the Low Growth Scenario, as illus-
trated in Figure 4-16.  However, these increases would be more than
offset by the expected large decreases in transportation emissions.
                                 109

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   200 -


   180


   160
                    Gross
                    Captured
                    Net
in
V.
°  140

o

E  120
c
&   80
    60 -
    40 -
    20 -
         1975  1985 2000
            OTHER
                        1975 1985 2000
                         TRUCK TRAVEL
                                       1975 1985 2000
                                          STEEL
                                        PRODUCTION
                                                      1975 1985 2000
                                                       AUTO  TRAVEL
                                                                                   - 450
                                                                                   - 400
                                                                                   - 350
                                                                                   - 300
                                                                                   - 250
                                                                                   - 200
                                                                                   - 150
                                                                                   - 100
                                                                                   - 50
                  S

                  C/2

                  §

                  ,-J

                  H
                                                                                         §
                                                                     1975 1985 2000
  TOTAL
EMISSIONS
              NOTE:  Auto and truck gross emissions based on  emission rates from
                    uncontrolled pre-1968 vehicles.  Engine  deterioration based
                    on average vehicle age of 5.99 years for autos, 7.15 years
                    for trucks.  Engine deterioration emission factor based upon
                    pre-1968 vehicles.
                                        FIGURE 4-14
                TRENDS IN CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS, BY SOURCE
                                 HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                       1975,1985, 2000
                                            110

-------
  110 —
  100 -
  90 -
   80 —
2;
O
H
c
h-1
,-4
   70 -
o  60 —
   50 —
O
I—I
w  40
   30 -
   20 -
   10 -
       1]
                  Gross
            I   |   Captured
                  Net
1975
             High Low
               2000
1975  High Low
       2000
                                     1475
Hig.i Low
  2000
                                                    1975
   High Low
     2000
                                                                  1975
    High Low
      2000
           REGION I
          New England
                 REGION II
                 New York -
                 New Jersey
                 REGION II1
                  Middle
                  Atlantic
REGION IV
Southeast
  REGION V
Great Lakes
                                  FIGURE 4-15
           TRENDS IN REGIONAL CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS
                                 1975 AND 2000
                                        111

-------
                                                     EMISSIONS  (MILLIONS  OF TONS)
                                                                                             00
                                                                                             O
                                                                                                  O
                                                                                                  o
o -n

il
Z! 3D
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c *.
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             n o

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             61 <
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      o =r
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-------
Lf\
*
30-
28 —
26 —
24-
~ 22-
03
* H
o
w
S 18-
M
J
,-!
H
5 16 —
t/3
z
§ 1*-
W
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§ 12 —
10 —
8 —

T

^


1

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W//////////M


I
1975 High Low
2000
TRANSPORTATION
	 -\

^J
^
Captured



^^ r^^ 1 f

^33 ;3^ tSxi S^ b^sS tvv^ SSiiRSS:
X^ SS> ^^ tSSS Soo rooC KxNi Nool KVV
1975 High Low 1975 High Low 1975 High Low
2000 2000 2000
QTTi'F'T nTPFR
PRODUCTION PULP & PAFER INDUSTRIES
NOTE:  Gross transportation emissions based upon emission rates from
      pre-1968 motor vehicles.   Engine deterioration based on aver-
      age vehicle age of 5.99 years for autos, and 7.15 years for
      trucks.  Engine deterioration emission factor based upon pre-
      1968 vehicles.

                    FIGURE 4-16
  CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS, BY SOURCE
                     REGION IV
                   1975 AND 2000
                         113

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     The steel industry is projected to become a more important
source of net carbon monoxide emissions in the Great Lakes Region
(Federal Region V) (Figure 4-17).  Emissions would increase 65 per-
cent in the High Growth Scenario between 1975 and 2000, partially
offsetting the reduction in emissions projected for transportation
activity in Federal Region V.

     In the South Central Region (Federal Region VI), carbon monoxide
emissions from the pulp and paper industry are projected to triple by
2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  However, the paper industry con-
tributed less than 2 percent of the Federal' Region VI total in 1975,
so the projected contribution of 7.5 percent in 2000 is still rela-
tively low.

4.7  OTHER POLLUTANTS

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 4.7

o  Photochemical oxidants,  the primary constituents of smog, are
   chemically and biologically active compounds that are potentially
   harmful to health and environment.

o  The major means of controlling oxidant levels is by control of
   precursors of ozone:  nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons.

o  Emissions of particulates wi.th diameters of less than 5 microns
   are of particular concern because of their ability to escape con-
   trol technologies, and produce negative health and environmental
   effects.

o  It is very difficult to  measure and forecast quantities of fine
   particulates emitted to  the atmosphere,  but efforts are being made
   to do so.  In general,  it is expected that net fine particle emis-
   sions will increase in the near future,  whereas net emissions of
   larger particles are expected to decrease overall.

o  Emissions of lead and other toxic elements have received increas-
   ing attention in recent  years.  Lead emissions are expected to
   decline greatly in the future because of reductions in lead fuel
   additives.  In contrast, emissions of some toxic elements are ex-
   pected to increase (particularly emissions of cadmium, nickel,
   selenium, arsenic, fluorine, and antimony).

o  There is considerable concern regarding adverse health effects
   associated with exposure to high levels  of lead and other toxic
   substances which are often present in the workplace.   Of even
   greater concern, however, from an environmental point of view, are
   chronic exposures to low levels of such  substances.

                                 114

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55 -
50 —
EMISSIONS (MILLIONS OF TONS)
./i •-- •— - NJ NJ i_j UJ-JS-f
O Ui O Ln O Ul O ^
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0







IS


II
m
mt
1975 High Low
2000
TATION






%


;"x*>ivi
ivx*"x"



| | CAPTURED
n I

1975 High Low 1975 High Low
2000 2000
STF.FL OTITR
T^ODUCTIOM TNDUSTRIFS
NOTE:  Gross transportation emissions based upon emission rates from
      uncontrolled pre-1968 motor vehicle engine deterioration based
      upon an average vehicle age of 5.99 years for autos, and 7.15
      years for truck engine deterioration emission factor based
      upon pre-1968 vehicles.
                         FIGURE 4-17
       CARBON MONOXIDE EMISSIONS, BY SOURCE
                          REGION V
                        1975 AND 2000
                              115

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4.7.1  Photochemical Oxidants - Ozone

     Introduction

     Photochemical oxidants are a class of compounds that are the
products of reactions involving hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen oxides
(NOX), oxygen (C^), and sunlight.  The toxic products of these
photochemical reactions consist of about 90 percent ozone (Oo), and
the remaining 10 percent nitrogen dioxide (NC^), peroxyacetyl-
nitrate, and other compounds.  The complex mechanism by which they
are produced is still a subject of research; in essence, critical
levels of the precursor pollutants, nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons,
and a minimum level of sunlight must be present for the sequence of
photochemical reactions to occur.

     Figure 4-18 illustrates the chemical changes that are observed
when a mixture of nitrogen oxide and hydrocarbon is exposed to sun-
light.  There are two distinct stages.  In the first, nitric oxide, a
byproduct of combustion, is converted to nitrogen dioxide without any
significant buildup of ozone.  The second stage begins when almost
all of the nitrogen oxide has been converted to nitrogen dioxide;
this stage is characterized by the accumulation of ozone and other
oxidant and non-oxidant products.  Because these changes occur over
several hours, ozone concentrations are often higher in downwind sub-
urbs than in the specific areas where the chemical components are
produced.

     Health and Environmental Effects

     Oxidants are strongly oxidizing compounds that are the primary
constituents of photochemical smog.  Ozone is the oxidant found in
the largest amounts during periods of high photochemical activity.
The current air quality standards regarding photochemical oxidants
pertain to ozone because its presence is measurable, it is a major
hazard, and it is a surrogate for other related agents.29  There-
fore, the environmental effects of oxidants are discussed only for
ozone.

     Ozone, a very reactive form of oxygen, is a broncho-pulmonary
irritant that affects the mucus lining, other lung tissues, and
^"Montana Ambient Air Quality Study;  Photochemical Oxidants,
  Hydrocarbons, Nitrogen Oxides and Carbon Monoxide, Montana Air
  Quality Bureau, August 1978, pp. 1-2.
2'U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "National Ambient Air
  Quality Standard for Photochemical Oxidants," 44FR8220, February
  1979.
                                116

-------
         1.2
         1.0-
a 0.8-

o
t-H
I 0.6-
       O
         0.2-
                                Hydrocarbons
                    Nitrogen
                    Dioxide
                                  Oxidants
                              Nitric Oxide
                  60    120    180    240   300
                  LENGTH OF EXPOSURE (MINUTES)
Source:   American Meteorological Society, Conference on
         Air  Pollution Meteorology, Raleigh,  North Carolina,
         April  1971. Used with permission.
                        FIGURE 4-18
    CHEMICAL CHANGES OCCURING DURING EXPOSURE OF
         NITROGEN OXIDES AND HYDROCARBONS TO
                    SIMULATED SUNLIGHT
                             117

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respiratory functions in human beings and animals beginning at con-
centrations as low as 0.15 to 0.30 parts per million (ppm).  Changes
in lung function are characterized by such clinical symptoms as
coughing, chest tightness, and lower chest soreness, and are a spe-
cial hazard for asthmatic individuals.3^

     Vegetation may be damaged by ozone levels as low as 0.1 ppm.
Visible leaf injury is the most readily detectable symptom of ozone
exposure; decreases in growth and yield can occur without visible
symptoms.  The effects of ozone on vegetation vary with the concen-
tration of the dose and length of exposure.  A given dose is more
                                               < 1
damaging when applied over a short time period.

     Ozone may also damage many sensitive materials in what can be
described as an acceleration of the aging process (e.g. , rubber
cracking, dye fading, and paint weathering).  In contrast to the
effects of ozone on vegetation, the level of materials damage appears
to be directly correlated to the concentration of the ozone dose. ^

     Control Of Oxidants

     Under the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970, EPA established
ambient air quality standards for photochemical oxidants.  The ini-
tial primary and secondary standards specified that the hourly aver-
age concentration of total oxidants should not exceed 0.08 ppm.  Com-
pliance with the standards was determined by monitoring ozone levels
as an indicator of oxidant concentration.  In accordance with the
provisions of Sections 108 and 109 of the Clean Air Act Amendments
of 1977, EPA reviewed the ai'r quality criteria for oxidants.  The
results of this review were two revisions in the oxidant standard:
(1) the standard was revised to control only ozone levels and (2) the
primary and secondary standards were set at 0.12 parts of ozone per
million.33

     Achievement of the above standards necessarily depends upon
controls imposed upon the emission sources of the precursors (NOX
and HC) of photochemical oxidants.  Reductions of emissions of nitro-
gen oxides and hydrocarbons are achieved through Federal and state
30u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air Quality Criteria for
  Ozone and other Photochemical Oxidants,  EPA 600/8-78-004,  April
  1978.
31Ibid.
32Ibid.
33u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "National Ambient Air
  Quality Standard for Photochemical Oxidants," 44FR8220, February
  1979.
                                  118

-------
programs formalized in regulations promulgated under the Clean Air
Act.  Typically, nitrogen oxide emissions are reduced to meet the
annual nitrogen dioxide standard, then the hydrocarbon emissions are
reduced enough to meet the ozone standard.  The Federal programs pro-
vide for emissions control at the national level through the Federal
Motor Vehicle Control Program, the Federal program for controlling
aircraft emissions, National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air
Pollutants, and New Source Performance Standards.  The State Imple-
mentation Plans provide additional emission control measures designed
to attain and maintain ambient air quality standards.

     The technological controls for nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons
being implemented to achieve compliance with the Clean Air Act
through control of precursor agents were discussed in Sections 4.4
and 4.5.

4.7.2  Fine Particulates

     Introduction

     Fine particulates are defined for this discussion as airborne
particles of solid or liquid matter having a diameter of less than 5
microns.-^  They are emitted by both natural and human-activity
sources and can occur as either primary or secondary pollutants.
Primary fine particles are emitted directly from a specific source,
and secondary fine particles are formed in the atmosphere as products
of the interaction of different gases or particles and gases.  For
example, carbonaceous primary fine particles are emitted directly
from coal combustion.  These particles are believed to contain toxic
materials.  However, a large part of the fine particulate problem has
been attributed to these secondary particles.  Among the substances
identified as contributing to their formation are sulfur dioxide,
nitrogen oxides, ammonia, and hydrocarbons.  A pollutant may combine
with oxygen, water, other naturally occurring elements in the air, or
other pollutants to form fine particles such as sulfates, sulfuric
acid particles, peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN), or other nitrates.  These
particles may have adverse health and environmental effects.

     Fine particulate pollution has become a serious concern for
several reasons:
^ There is no widely accepted size range defining fine particles.
  From a public health standpoint, particles of <15 microns are often
  termed "inhalable."  In most discussions, the term "fine" is used
  to describe particles of less than 5 microns in diameter.  In some
  cases, the upper size limit is defined as 2 or 3 microns.
                                 119

-------
     o  Fine particles tend to penetrate deep into the lungs;
        they are suspected of causing various adverse health
        effects.

     o  Primary fine particles are more difficult to control than
        larger particles. Generally, the smaller the particle, the
        more difficult it is to capture by filters, scrubbers, or
        other controls.

     o  Fine particles tend to remain airborne much longer than
        larger ones and can be transported over long distances. Thus,
        even if local controls are effective, fine particles
        transported from other less well-controlled areas can create
        a problem.

     o  Fine particles cause, or may cause,  undesirable atmos-
        pheric effects.

     Health and Environmental Effects

     Because of their minute size, fine particulates often bypass the
normal filtering mechanisms of the human respiratory system.  The
smallest particles (i.e., smaller than 1 micron) can penetrate deep
into the lungs, irritating lung tissue or contributing to long-term
disorders (e.g., silicosis, asbestosis, emphysema).

     The greatest health risk posed by inhalation of fine particulate
matter is from particles that are toxic themselves or that act as
carriers of toxic trace substances.  Most larger particles which
impact the walls of the upper airways are cleared by the mucociliary
transport mechanism;  fine particles penetrate into the gas exchange
area of the lung and are not subject to clearance by this mechanism.
Consequently, chemically active particles may remain deposited deep
within the lungs for months or even years, or they may be moved to
the gastrointestinal tract.35  Recently, there has been concern
over the concentration of particulate matter, particularly inhalable
particulates, in indoor areas.  Sources such as tobacco smoke,
household appliances, and building materials are currently being
studied to evaluate possible health impacts.  Since fine particulates
are emitted from a wide variety of sources and may interact with
different pollutants in the atmosphere, it is difficult to generalize
-^Harrington, R.E., "Fine Particulates - The Misunderstood Air
  Pollutants," Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association,
  October 1974, pp. 928-929.
                                 120

-------
about potential health effects.  EPA has initiated a research program
to study the health impacts of fine particles.3(>

     The presence of fine particulate matter in the atmosphere can
also have adverse environmental effects.  One of the most important
is that fine particles reduce visibility by scattering and absorbing
light.  Particles of 1 micron diameter or less seem to be particular-
ly significant as light-scattering agents.   Many of these particles
are sulfate compounds formed in the atmosphere from sulfur oxide
emissions.  Nitrate and carbonaceous aerosols are also suspected of
contributing substantially to visibility problems.37

     Another negative effect that might result from the light-
scattering ability of fine particulates is  a decrease in the amount
of solar radiation that reaches the earth's surface.  Theoretically,
this could cause a decrease in the overall temperature of the atmo-
sphere, with serious climatic consequences.  Some observers feel that
this tendency may be stronger than the "greenhouse effect" of rising
global temperatures due to increasing concentrations of atmospheric
carbon dioxide.38  (See Chapter 5 for a discussion of the global
implications of increasing carbon dioxide levels.)

     Fine particles can also affect climatic conditions by acting as
condensation nuclei.  Heavy concentrations  of atmospheric fine parti-
cles tend to increase the amount of precipitation and ice formation,
in turn increasing the degree of cloudiness over the affected
region.  (See Chapter 5 for a discussion of global implications of
atmospheric pollution.)

     Control of Fine Particulate Emissions

     Emissions of fine particulates can be  controlled to some extent
through the use of electrostatic precipitators, cyclone collectors,
wet scrubbers, or baghouses.  Generally, the efficiency of these
techniques decreases as particle diameters  become smaller than 2
microns.  Baghouses are the most effective means of controlling fine
particulate emissions; EPA tests have shown 95 percent collection
efficiency for particles in the 0.1 to 4 micron size range.3"
Cyclone collectors, in contrast, have been tested at about 40 percent
efficiency for fine particles.
36Miller, et al. , "Size, Considerations for Establishing a Standard
  for Inhalable Particles," Journal of the Air Pollution Control
  Association, Vol. 29:610-15, June 1979.
3'Ember, L.R., "Preserving Our Visibility Heritage," Environmental
  Science and Technology, March 1979, pp. 266-268.
3°Stoker, H.S.and S.Seager, Environmental Chemistry; Air and
  Water Pollution, Scott, Foresman, and Company, Glenview, Illinois,
  1976, p. 99.
39{j.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Energy/Environment III,
  EPA-600/9-78-002, EPA Decision Series, October 1978, pp. 325.


                                 121

-------
     Since the various methods have different collection efficiencies
in relation to particle size, combinations of techniques may yield
higher levels of control than single techniques.  For example, the
use of scrubbers and electrostatic precipitators together often
results in higher fine particle collection rates than either of the
devices used individually.

     The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 require standards for total
suspended particulates (TSP) to be reviewed and, if necessary,
revised by December 1980.  At present, there is no separate standard
for fine particle emissions.  The two main criteria for establishing
a fine particulate standard would likely be health impacts and visi-
bility impairment.  Attainment of a national optical standard for
visibility, which the Council on Environmental Quality has recom-
mended,^1 would require greater control of fine particle emissions.
The Environmental Protection Agency is now looking at possible fine
particulate standards as part of a review of the TSP standard, but
both a national optical standard and a national fine particle stand-
ard are regarded by EPA as difficult to establish at this time on the
basis of present scientific information. ^

     Sources of Fine Particulates

     Fine particulates are produced by many sources, with the largest
quantities being emitted as a result of combustion.  Since measuring
quantities of microscopic particles in the atmosphere is very diffi-
cult, and since both primary and secondary formation must be
accounted for, the amounts of natural fine particle formation cannot
be reliably estimated.

     It is possible, however, to estimate primary emissions from
specific sources.  In a  1974 survey,^3 emissions were estimated for
the major point, area, and mobile sources responsible for fine parti-
cle pollution (Table 4-11).  These data are now considered to be of
limited reliability, but  they are included here to provide a  rough
indication of the substantial significance of fine particle
emissions.

     Some of these data  have been updated on a  site-specific  basis in
an EPA data management system known as the Fine Particle Emissions
Information System.  Substantial measurement data exist for more than
      . Environmental Protection Agency, Energy/Environment III,
   EPA600/9-78-002, EPA Decision Series, October  1978, pp. 325.
 41Ember, L.R.,  "Preserving Our Visibility Heritage," Environmental
   Science  and Technology, March 1979, pp. 266-268.
 42lbid~:
 43Midwest  Research Institute, Fine Particle Emission Inventory and
   Control  Survey, EPA-450/3-74-040, January 1974.

                                 122

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                           TABLE 4-11
            MAJOR SOURCES OF FINE PARTICLE EMISSIONS
                              1972

                         (103 TONS/YEAR)
                                          Size Range
            Source	      	(Microns)	

                                       .01-3         3.01-7
Wildfires                              2160           —

Coal-Fired Electric Utilities          1080          780

Crushed Stone Industry                  —           870

Motor Vehicles                          —           760

Iron and Steel Industry                 480          <10

Kraft Pulp Mills                        410           90

Ferroalloy Production                   280           20

Agricultural Burning                    260          <10

Fuel Oil Combustion                     190           —

Industrial Coal Combustion              160          270
Source:  Midwest Research Institute, Fine Particle Emission
         Inventory and Control Survey, EPA-450/3-74-040,
         January 1974.
                                 123

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150 stationary sources, although these data do not provide a basis
for estimating emissions for entire source categories or for national
or regional totals.

     Except for the crushed stone industry, all the major sources for
which estimates are available are combustion-related.  Data for some
sources, such as fugitive dust and sea-salt aerosols, are scanty or
unavailable.  Thus, it is difficult to make very reliable con-
clusions about source contributions to total fine particle loadings
in the atmosphere.

     An area of concern over sources of fine particle emissions is
the expected rapid increase in the use of diesel automobile engines.
Most particulates produced by diesel engines are less than 0.5 micron
in diameter—easily inhaled deep into the lungs, where they may
remain for some time.  Since diesel engines also produce a large
number of organic compounds, some of which are known to be toxic or
carcinogenic, their fine particle emission could constitute a sig-
nificant public health hazard.  The adsorption of toxic compounds on
fine particle surfaces and penetration of the particles into the
respiratory system are under study,^ as are associated health
effects.^

     Emission Trends for Fine Particulates

     As mentioned, it is very difficult to estimate the quantity of
fine particle emissions from different sources.  EPA's data base,
FPEIS, contains detailed information on certain aspects of emissions
from individual stationary facilities, but information on quantities
of emissions is limited.  For these reasons, the SEAS model does not
make projections of fine particle emissions in the future.  As the
FPEIS data are expanded, such projections should become feasible.

4.7.3  Lead

     Introduction

     Lead is a toxic metal that has been the subject of increasing
concern in recent years because of its potential for harm to human
health.  Current world production has been estimated to exceed 3.5
million tons per year.
       , L., "The Diesel Dilemma," Environment, Vol. 21, March
  1979.
^Miller et al., "Size Consideration for Establishing a Standard
  for Inhalation Particles," Journal of the Air Pollution Control
  Association, Vol. 29:610-615, June 1979.
                                124

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      Health and Environmental  Effects

      Human health effects  from lead pertain mainly to blood  heme
 formation, kidneys, and the central nervous system.  About 95 percent
 of  the total body lead burden  is  stored in bone.  This  portion is in
 equilibrium with mobile lead circulating in the blood or  present in
 other soft tissues such as the kidney.   The mobile lead component in
 blood can cause shortened  red-cell  life span at blood concentrations
 of  50 to 100 micrograms per 100 grams of blood (0.5 to  1  part per
 million).^°  Reductions in blood  hemoglobin levels and  neuro-
 behavioral deficits reflecting central  nervous system damage have
 been  demonstrated to occur starting at  blood lead concentrations of
 approximately 4,050 micrograms per  100  grams of blood.^7

      Exposure to lead emissions near roadways is a potential hazard
 for people living or working in such environments for long periods of
 time.   The soil buildup of lead near a  roadway with high  traffic
 volume is illustrated in Figure 4-19.   This correlates  to atmospheric
 lead  concentrations that are encountered near roadways.   Typically,
 soil  lead concentrations declined to background levels  within 50
                                               2000
                         SOILS TRANSECT (0-10cm)
                           15     10     5
                         DISTANCE FROM STREET (m)
                                                0	STREET
 Source:  Rolfe, G. and A.  Haney, An Ecosystem Analysis of Environmental Contamination by
        Lead. University  of Illinois, Institute for Environmental Studies,  Champaign-
        Urbana, Illinois, August 1975. Used with permission.

                                FIGURE 4-19
                 SOIL TRANSECT OF HIGH-TRAFFIC-VOLUME STREET
^National Academy  of Sciences, LEAD;  Airborne Lead in Perspec-
  tive, Washington,  D.C.,  1972.
^7U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air  Quality Criteria for
  Lead, EPA 600/8-77-017,  December 1977.

                                  125

-------
meters of high traffic roadways.^°  People chronically exposed to
heavily traveled roads may develop potentially damaging lead
concentrations in their blood.

     What happens to lead emitted to the environment is not well
understood, but it appears that most lead cycled through the atmo-
sphere has a residence time of 7 to 30 days in the air.^9  -phe eco-
logic flow of lead cycling in the biosphere is shown in Figure
4-20.

     Lead affects plants such as maize at tissue concentrations of
about 100 parts per million, with photosynthesis being depressed.-3"
These responses are reached only in atmospheric concentrations far
above current conditions.

     Laboratory tests with mammals reveal that highest lead accumula-
tions occur most in skeleton and kidney tissues, and can adversely
affect blood heme synthesis.  Concentrations necessary to cause such
damage result mainly from the direct ingestion of lead with food.
This may be a hazard for some domestic animals grazing near roadways.

     Control Measures and Regulatory Status

     A number of techniques can be used to control lead emissions.
One approach is to set ambient air quality standards designed to
limit emissions from major sources.  Another is to regulate the con-
tent of lead in gasoline.  A third method is to use nonleaded gaso-
line in motor vehicles equipped with catalytic converters.  This last
method protects the catalytic control device from damage and also
helps reduce automotive lead emissions.

     An ambient air quality lead standard of 1.5 micrograms per cubic
meter (quarterly average) was initiated in October 1978.

     The regulation of the lead content of gasoline applies to the
entire supply of gasoline being produced.  A limitation is placed on
the quantity of lead that can be added to the total amount of gaso-
line being produced by a refinery.  Thus, if a refinery produces most-
ly unleaded gasoline, it is allowed to have a relatively high lead
^°Rolfe, G., and Haney, A., An Ecosystem Analysis of Environmental
  Contamination by Lead, University of Illinois, Institute for
  Environmental Studies, Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, August 1975.
^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and
  Development, Air Quality Criteria for Lead, EPA 600/8-0173,
  Washington, D.C., 1978.
-"^National Academy of Sciences, Lead:  Airborne Lead in Perspec-
  tive, Washington, D.C., 1972.

                                 126

-------
              Plants
                                 Animals
Earth
   Smelters [—••

   Industry j—»

      *
• ~{Automobiles}*.
            Dust
          Other Lead
          Containing
          Products
Lead Aerosol

 Atmosphere

Organic Lead
                    _/• v
                          Fallout
                          & Rainout
                           Ocean
                         Sediments
Lakes &
Rivers
Source:  National Academy of Sciences,  Lead: Airborne Lead in
Perspective,  Washington, B.C.,  1972.
                         FIGURE 4-20
         ECOLOGICAL FLOW CHART OF LEAD SHOWING
                POTENTIAL CYCLIC PATHWAYS
                           127

-------
content in its unleaded fuel.  Leaded gasoline has a lead content of
up to two grams per gallon, while "unleaded" gasoline is formally
restricted to .05 grams per gallon.51

     Emission standards for point sources emitting over 100 metric
tons of lead per year are being developed for special consideration
in the revised 1979 State Implementation Plans.  Control measures
center on controlling particulates in order to trap lead and lead
compound particles.  Most processes are expected to use baghouses and
electrostatic precipitators to control these emissions.

     Sources of Lead Emissions

     Sources of lead air emissions projected by SEAS and by other
estimates are illustrated in Table 4-12.  The major source of emis-
sions is motor vehicles that use leaded gasoline as fuel.  Other
sources, important in certain localities, include waste oil combus-
tion, lead smelters, petroleum refining, solid waste incineration,
electric utility plants, and gray iron production.

     Emission Trends for Lead

     Future lead emissions are expected to decrease sharply because
of reduced lead additives in gasoline.  According to SEAS projections
(Table 4-12), motor vehicle emissions, which accounted for over 95
percent of lead emissions in 1975, are expected to be nearly zero in
2000.  While this decrease would reduce overall ambient air concen-
trations of lead significantly, other emissions of lead, such as from
lead smelters and electric utilities, are expected to increase, in
both the High and Low Growth Scenarios.  A typical primary lead smel-
ter can emit from 5 to  15 pounds of lead per ton of lead produced
depending upon the controls installed.

     A typical coal-fired electric power generator (1,000 MWe capa-
city) emits from about  670 to 1,200 pounds of  lead per year, depend-
ing upon emission controls, coal type, and boiler design used.
Increased numbers of lead smelters and electric power plants are
likely to increase ambient lead concentrations in areas located near
such facilities.
 ^Bureau  of  National Affairs, Environment Reporter, Washington,
   B.C., April  1978.
 52U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Water
   Programs,  Emission Study of Industrial Sources of Lead Air Pol-
   lutants 1970,  Research  Triangle  Park, North Carolina, 1973.
 53Radian  Corporation,  Coal-Fired Power Plant Trace Element  Study,
   Vol.  1, Austin,  Texas,  1975.

                                 128

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                                 TABLE  4-12
            COMPARISONS OF  ESTIMATES  OF NET LEAD EMISSIONS
                                1975 and 2000

                                (103 tons)

                                SEAS
2000
High Low
Source 1975 Growth Growth
Copper Smelting .003 .005 .005
Lead Smelting 1.7 3.95 4.35
Electric Utilities ,79 j75 _g0
Highway Emissions 219.0 -0- -0-
Industrial Combustion .25 .10 .20
Waste Oil Combustion
Solid Waste Incin.
Gray Iron Production
Iron and Steel
Lead Alkyl Manufacture
Petroleum Refining
Zinc Smelting
Ore Crushing
Other Metallurgical
Type Metal
Portland Cement
Pigments
Other
Total 221.6 4.80 5.85

Other References
EPA: EPA: NAS :
1975 Data3 1973 Data 1968 DataC
.60
1.15

142.0

10.4
1.65
1.10
.85
1.00


.50
.25
.45
.30
.10
.35
161.25
.90
2.75 1.0

d 181.0


.30
1.40
.15
.80 .80
1.25
.25
.35
.50



1.10 1.0
9.2d 184.3
U. S. Environmental  Protection Agency, Office of  Research and Development,
Air Quality Criteria for Lead, EPA-600/8-0173, Washington, D.C.,
December, 1978.


Goldberg, A.S.,  A  Survey of Emissions and Controls for Hazardous and  Other
Pollutants,  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air Pollution Technology
Branch,  Technology Division, Office of Research and Monitoring,  Washington,
D.C., 1973.

National Academy of  Sciences, Lead:  Airborne Lead in Perspective, Washington,
D.C., 1972.

Highway  emissions  not included.
                                    129

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4.7.4  Trace Elements

    Introduction

    Scientific interest in trace element emissions into the atmos-
phere has been increasing, due to indications that the particles may
be critical sources of adverse human health effects requiring better
monitoring and control.  Although the list of trace elements of
potential concern is substantial, reliable data collection on the
current sources of trace emissions has only been accomplished for a
handful of elements.  In this section, the following trace elements
will be discussed:

        o  Antimony                  o  Fluorine
        o  Arsenic                   o  Manganese
        o  Asbestos                  o  Mercury
        o  Beryllium                 o  Nickel
        o  Cadmium                   o  Selenium

     Health and Environmental Effects

     Trace elements can have toxic properties even in very small con-
centrations in the environment.  Exposure to these substances can
reduce crop productivity and harm animal life.  The discovery of
elevated levels of trace metals  in water samples from several remote
streams raises the concern over  the effects of deposition from the
atmosphere to the aquatic environment.  Some toxic elements such as
mercury and fluorine can accumulate in the human body to lethal
dosage levels through  the food chain.  Atmospheric trace element
concentrations can also indirectly affect pollutants (as in the case
of manganese, whose presence serves as a catalyst, in the conversion
of sulfur dioxide to sulfates).  However, regulatory authorities are
primarily concerned with  the potential health effects of direct human
exposure to toxic elements, particularly in the workplace or in areas
surrounding high  emission point  sources such as smelters or utili-
ties.  Table  4-13 presents the currently defined atmospheric thres-
hold limit values for  the 10 trace elements examined in this section,
and  identifies potential health  consequences of exposure to ambient
concentrations above  these limits.

      Sources  of Trace  Element Emissions

      Trace  element  emissions can be generated from three basic  types
of activity.   Industries manufacturing products containing  these
elements  (e.g., asbestos  pipe,  cadmium based pigments) may  release
emissions of  trace  elements during processing.  As these goods  are
consumed and  disposed  of, further atmospheric releases may  result
from such diverse sources as product  deterioration,  paint or pigment
overspray or  incineration of waste products  containing these

                                 130

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                              TABLE 4-13
  HUMAN THRESHOLD LIMIT VALUES AND TOXIC EFFECTS OF TRACE ELEMENTS
Trace Element
Ant imony
Arsenic
Asbestos
Beryllium
Cadmium
Fluorine
                      Threshold  Limit
                         Value  a
                                3
                         0.5 mg/m
                         0.5 mg/m
                       (0.2 arsine)
           Toxic
          Effects
                 2.0 fibers/xm  of air
                 space based on fibers
                 longer than 5 u.m for
                 8 hours.
                         3
                 0.1 p.g/m  for short-
                 term acute effects,
Dermatitis, keratitis, con-
junctivitis, nasal system
ulceration.

Dermatitis, bronchitis, skin
cancer, gastrointestinal
disturbances, (arsenia),
hemolysis with arsine inhal-
ation, interference with
cellular metabolism.

Poisonous when injected or
inhaled.

Asbestosis lung disease.

Possible carcinogen.
Pneumonitis, or chronic res-
piratory disease, dermatitis,
                 0.01 to 0.1 fj.g/m3 for  berylliosis, conjunctivitis.
                 30-day average, 2.0
                       in work place.
                                        Suspected carcinogen in humans:
                                        proven carcinogen in lab
                                        animals.
                 1 fj.g/m  acute effects; Pulmonary edema, emphysema,
                 below 0.1 fj.g/m3        renal dysfunction.
                 chronic effects still
                 possible.
                       2 mg/m"
                            (Continued)
                                        Interferes with calcium
                                        metabolism and enzyme mech-
                                        anisms, causing cellular
                                        poisoning.

                                        Very toxic to plants and
                                        grazing animals; it is rec-
                                        ommended that forage for
                                        dairy cattle contain not more
                                        than 40 ppm of fluorine
                                        (annual average) to protect
                                        human health.
                                131

-------
                       TABLE 4-13  (CONTINUED)
Trace Element
Manganese
Mercury
Nickel
      j
Selenium
    Threshold Limit
	Value	
           3
10-260 yg/m  chronic
exposure, increased
incidence of pneumonia;
30,000 yg/m  poison-
ing.  Recommended
standard is
0.006 Ug/m3.
         3
0.05 mg/m  for 8 hours.
3 ppm nickel carbonyl
for 30-minute exposure;
1 ppb for 8 hours;
1 mg/m  for nickel
(metal).

      0.2 mg/m
           Toxic
          Effects
Pneumonia, central nervous
system damage.

Acts as catalyst to convert
S0_ to sulfates in
atmosphere.'1
Pneumonitis, bronchitis,
chest pains, dyspnea or
coughing.
Chronic exposure causes cen-
tral nervous system damage,
tremors, and kidney damage.
Can produce teratogenic
effects.  Has ability  to con-
centrate through food  chains.

Lung damage, dermatitis.
Possible lung and nasal
cavity carcinogen.
Gastrointestinal effects;
respiratory tract and skin
irritaion.
  Threshold limit value refers to the highest concentration of a
toxicant allowable to protect against potential health effects.
The air concentrations are abbreviated here as follows:
                    3
                yg/m  = micrograms per cubic meter
                    3
                mg/m  = milligrams per cubic meter
                 ppm  = parts per million
                 ppb  = parts per billion

           fibers/cm  = fibers per cubic centimeter
                  urn  = micrometer
                              (Continued)

                                 132

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                        TABLE 4-13 CONCLUDED



  Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental, Health, and Control
Aspects of Coal Conversion, An Information Overview, Vol. 2, Oak
Ridge, Tennessee, April 1977.
c
  U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, National Institute
for Occupational Safety and Health, Occupational Exposure to Asbestos,
Washington, D.C., 1972.

  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Proposed National Emission
Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants:  Asbestos, Beryllium, Mercury,
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, December 1971.
g
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Assessment Document
for Cadmium, EPA-600/8-79-003, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina,
September 1979.

  National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Biologic Effects of
Atmospheric Pollutants, Fluorides, Washington, D.C., 1971.
g
  Environmental Health Research Center, Illinois State Institute
for Environmental Quality, Airborne Manganese Health Effects and
Recommended Standard, Chicago, Illinois, July 1975.

  Low recommended standard (compared to toxicity) for manganese is
due to the catalytic effect of manganese to convert S02 to 804.  It
is therefore, important to reduce this pollutant to control sulfate
formation.

  U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, National Institute
for Occupational Safety ane Health, Occupational Exposure to Inorganic
Mercury, Washington, D.C., 1973.

  National Academy of Sciences, Committee on Medical and Biologic
Effects of Environmental Pollutants, Nickel, Washington, D.C. 1975.
                                  133

-------
elements.  Finally, these elements appear as trace constituents in
fuels (particularly coal and oil) and ferrous and non-ferrous metals,
and may be emitted during the conversion of crude resources into
primary products.  The relative importance of these three categories
varies significantly between elements, as indicated below.  Table
4-14 identifies current demand patterns for eight of the studied
trace elements.  Available information on consumption trends for
these elements is summarized below:

     o  Antimony is being increasingly used by the chemical industry
        in the production of flame retardants.

     o  Asbestos consumption is projected to increase from 60 to 70
        percent between 1975 and 2000.  The fastest growing use of
        asbestos is in the formation of asbestos cement sheet.^^

     o  Beryllium consumption declined dramatically between 1967 and
        1975 in all end-use categories.  Nonetheless, a 1978 ORNL/EPA
        report projected a ten-fold increase in domestic beryllium
        production requirements between 1975 and 2000.

     o  Cadmium demand is expected to about double over the fore-
        cast period.5"  The fastest growing use of cadmium in
        recent years has been in battery manufacturing.  The use of
        cadmium in plastics production has declined steadily over the
        past decade.

     o  Fluorine consumption patterns have remained virtually
        unchanged between 1968-1977.

     o  Mercury use in paint and pesticide production has been
        severely curtailed as a result of recent EPA initiatives.
        Similar regulatory efforts have caused chemical manufacturers
        to shift the process technology used for chlor-alkali produc-
        tion away from the mercury cell process.  Mercury use in bat-
        tery manufacturing, however, appears to be increasing.5'
   J.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Chemical Market
  Input/Output Analysis of Selected Chemical Substances to Assess
  Sources of Environmental Contamintion;  Task III, Asbestos, EPA
  560/6-78-005, Washington, B.C., 1978.
      Ridge National Laboratories and U.S. Environmental Protection
  Agency, Reviews of the Environmental Effects of Pollutants;  VI
  Beryllium, EPA 600/1-78-026, Washington, D.C., 1978.
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Toxic Substances,
  Multimedia Levels of Cadmium, EPA 560/6-77-032, Washington, D.C.,
  1977.
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Energy, Minerals
  and Industry, An Assessment of Mercury Emissions from Fossil Fueled
  Power Plants, EPA 600/7-78-146, Washington, D.C., 1979.

                                 134

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                   TABLE 4-14
DEMAND PATTERNS FOR EIGHT TRACE ELEMENTS, 1975
            (% OF TOTAL CONSUMPTION)
                       Consumptive Use
Battery
Element MFC
Antimony
Asbestoa
Beryllium
<-° Ca4.lv. 15
(Jt
Fluorine
Mercury 30
nickel
Selenium
Note: Shares must
Chemical
Production
35



35
20

15
Construction Ceramics/ Electronic Electro- Industrial Iron 6 Missile & Non-Ferrous Paving &
Material class Components plating Controls Steel Aerospace Metals Paints Hoofing
5
55 10
15 20
20 25 20
40 20
15 15
20 45 10
35 45
Pulp/ Transportation
Paper Equipment Utilities Other
45 15
10 10 15
55 10
15 5
5
20
25
5
exceed rjl for Inclusion In tables.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Interior,
Commodities. 1968-1977.
Minerals in the U.S. Economy: Ten-Year Supply-Demand Profiles for Non-Fuel Mineral
Washington, D.C., May 1979.


-------
     o  Nickel exhibits anti-knock properties in gasoline and has
        been considered as a major fuel additive to replace lead.

     o  Selenium is being used in increasing amounts by the elec-
        tronics industry because of its high conductive properties.

     Table 4-15 examines the potential for indirect emissions of
trace elements from primary metal processing and fuel combustion
activities.  Where available, the table indicates the average concen-
trations of these elements present in input ores and fuels.  Given
such data, and estimates of the efficiency of existing particulate
and sulfur oxide controls in removing trace substances from stack
gases, rough calculations of total indirect discharges can be devel-
oped.  Materials balance approaches are often employed to estimate
the distribution of the trace residuals between airborne, water-borne
and land environments.

     Table 4-16 indicates the relative importance of direct and indi-
rect trace element emission sources to current residual discharges.
For the seven pollutants listed, only asbestos and mercury have
direct emissions that exceed discharges from fuel combustion and/or
ore smelting.  Consequently, for most trace elements, the effective-
ness of emission control in future years is dependent on the total
(and possibly fine) particulate regulatory requirements imposed on
smelters and large boilers by Federal and state initiatives.  The
current status of trace element emission control is discussed below.

     Control of Trace Element Emissions

     Control of toxic trace element emissions is usually associated
with the control of major pollutants.  Most toxic emissions are in
the form of particulates and are affected by the implementation of
control devices like baghouses and electrostatic precipitators (ESP).
Other toxic elements such as selenium, are closely associated with
sulfur compounds and may be partially controlled by sulfur oxide
scrubbing devices.  The most common mechanisms used in trace element
control are listed in Table 4-17.

     The efficiency of trace element removal has sometimes been
assumed to be equivalent to the effectiveness of overall particulate
control.  However, several recent studies have questioned this
assumption.  A large portion of trace emissions are associated with
fine particle matter which may escape current control devices.  A
summary of available information on trace element control efficien-
cies is included below.
                                 136

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Trace Elements
   Arsenic
   Beryllium

   Cadmium
   Mercury


   Nickeld


   Selenium6
                                                 TABLE 4-15
                         TRACE ELEMENT  CONSTITUENTS OF  SELECTED -ORES  AND FUELS

                                                               Material  Analyzed
Coal

1.6 ppm
1.0 ppm
(0.25-2.0)
0.21 ppm
(.06-. 23)
.33xlO~6 Ib/lb
Oil

0.08 ppm
(.07-. 11 ppm) diesel
(.42-. 53 ppm) residual
0 . 1 ppm
(.002-10)
.23-3xlO~3 Ib/gal.
Copper Ore Lead Ore
0.2-5.2% <0.1%
As content As content

.11 Ibs/ton
of lead
processed

Zinc Ore
<0.1%
As content

2.5 Ibs/ton
of zinc
processed

Municipal
Waste


(31-75 ppm)
sewage sludge

 coal  burned

(2.76-3.36 ppm)
 of  oil  burned

    0.17 ppm
(0.004-0.6  ppm)
Sources:
           IJ.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, The Ecological Effects  of  Arsenic  Emitted  from Non-Ferrous Smelters, 1978.
           U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Reviews of the Environmental  Effects  of Pollutants, Vol. IV and VI, 1977-8.
           U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, An Assessment of Mercury Emissions from Fossil Fueled Power Plants, 1979.
           U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Human Exposure to Atmospheric Concentrations of Selected Chemicals:
           Attachment  A-21, Research Triangle Park, N.C., 1980.
          National  Academy of Sciences, Selenium, 1976.

-------
                                                                  TABLE  4-16
                                     DISTRIBUTION  OF  CURRENT  TRACE  ELEMENT MISSION  SOURCES
                                                          (%  OF  TOTAL  EMISSION)
                                                                          Eml.ssl.on  Catezorv
00
Extraction and


Processing of Primary Metals Fuel
Trace Element Element
Asbestos21 55
Berylliumb>C <5
Cadmium
Manganese0
Mercury
Nickel0 <5
Selenium 5
Note: NI - Not Included.
Sources: aU.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Sources of Environmental Contamination
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Processing

<5
40
40
10
5
20
Combustion

95
45
20
35
90
70
Chemical Market Input/Output Analysis of
: Task III
Reviews of
. Asbestos, EPA 560/6-78-006
the Environmental Effects of
Manufacture of
Trace Element-
Based Products
20

5
40
10

5
Selected Chemical Substances
, Washington, D.C., 1978.
Pollutants: VI Beryllium,
Consumption and
Disposal of Trace
Element-Based
Products
25
NI
10
NI
45
NI
NI
to Assess


                    EPA 600/1-78-026, Washington, D.C., 1978.

                    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Human Exposure to  Atmospheric Concentrations of Selected Chemicals;   Attachment A-21,
                    Research Triangle Park,  North Carolina,  1980.

                    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Multimedia Levels  of Cadmium. EPA 560/6-77-032, Washington, D.C., 1977.

                    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Minerals and Industry, An Assessment of Mercury Emissions from Fossil Fueled Power
                    Plants.  EPA 600/7-78-146, Washington,  D.C., 1979.

                    National Academy of Sciences, Committee  of Medical and Biologic Effects of Environmental  Pollutants, Selenium.
                    Washington,  D.C., 1976.

-------
                             TABLE 4-17
           CONTROL TECHNIQUES FOR TRACE ELEMENT EMISSIONS
 	Control Technique 	

Dry Mechnical Collectors
(Cyclones)

Fabric Filters
(Baghouses)

Electrostatic Precipitators
(ESP)

Wet Scrubbers
Dust Control via
Process Modifications

Materials Substitution
           Trace Element:
Arsenic. Beryllium, Cadmium, Fluorine
Mercury,

Arsenic, Asbestos, Beryllium, Cadmium
Flourinef Manganesef Nickelf Selenium^

Arsenic, Cadmium, Flourine, Manganese
Mercuryf Nickel3 Selenium"

Beryllium, Cadmium, Fluorine, Manganesec
Mercuryf Nickelf Selenium^

        C*          f*        fl        fl
Asbestos, Beryllium, Cadmium, Mercury
        c         d
Asbestos, Fluorine
High Efficiency
Particulate Air (HEPA)
Filters
        Si          C
Antimony, Beryllium
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Water
 Programs, Emission Factors for Trace Substances, Research
 Triangle Park, N.C., 1973.


 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
 Planning and Standards, Air Pollution Assessment Report on
 Arsenic, Research Triangle Park, N.C., 1976.

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Water
 Programs, Control Techniques for (Various Trace) Air Pollutants,
 Research Triangle Park, N.C., 1973.


 National Academy of Sciences, reports by the Committee on
 Medical and Biological Effects of Environmental Pollutants,
 1971-1976.
                                  139

-------
     o  Arsenic emissions are reduced 33-50 percent through the
        application of dust control devices such as ESPs  or baghous-
        es.   Further reductions  in arsenic  (As)  discharges  from the
        non-ferrous smelting industry may indirectly occur  as  a con-
        sequence of increased leaching of ores  undertaken for  sulfur
        oxide control."

     o  Before controls were placed on emissions of beryllium,  emis-
        sions near production facilities  were 500 times higher than
        present levels.  (This implies a  99.8 percent control
        efficiency).59

     o  The  highest observed concentrations of  airborne cadmium
        emissions occur in the finest particles  (35 ppm in  1-2  m
        particles, 22 ppm in 3-5  m particles,  15 ppm in  7-11   m
        particles).  Therefore,  current fly ash  controls  will  not
        remove cadmium as effectively as  they remove total
        particulates.^O

     o  A recent study indicates that ESPs  have  no appreciable effect
        on the level of mercury emissions,  sulfur oxide scrubbers can
        achieve 33 percent removal, and baghouses can control  30-60
        percent of emissions from power plants.61

     o  It has been estimated that 53 percent of the selenium  found
        in coal is released to the atmosphere as volatilized selenium
        or on particulates too fine to be trapped by standard  dust
        collectors.^^

     Industrial sources of trace elements have  been analyzed by
region in SEAS documentation, for seven elements.63  Several trace
     .  Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of  Toxic Substances,
  The Ecological Effects of Arsenic Emitted from Nonferrous Smelters,
  EPA 560/6-77-011, Washington, D.C., February 1978.
5"oak Ridge National Laboratories and U.S.  Environmental Protection
  Agency,  Reviews of the Environmental Effects of  Pollutants;   VI,
  Beryllium, EPA 600/1/78-026,  Washington,  B.C., 1977.
  ORNL/Environmental Protection Agency,  Reviews of the  Environmen-
  tal Effects of Pollutants: IV, Cadmium, Washington, D.C.,1977.
61-U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of  Toxic Substances,
  An Assessment of Mercury Emissions from Fossil Fueled Power  Plants,
  EPA 600/7/78-146, Washington, D.C. , 1979.
^National Academy of Sciences, Committee of Medical  and Biologic
  Effects of Environmental Pollutants, Selenium, Washington, D.C.,
  1976.
"^International Research & Technology, Inc., Review and Validation
  of SEAS Toxic Data Base, Urban Systems Research  and Engineering,
  Inc., International Research and Technology, Inc.,  McLean,
  Virginia, 1978.

                                 1AO

-------
elements appear to have regionally concentrated emissions.  These
concentrations are due in large part to the location of large smelt-
ing plants in these localities.  Sources of trace emissions not docu
mented in SEAS are not reflected in Figure 4-21.

     Emission Trends for Trace Elements

     Total emissions of six of the trace elements are postulated to
increase after 1975:"^

     Trace Element       Source of Increase in Emissions

     Antimony            Lead, copper, and zinc smelting

     Arsenic             Lead, copper, and zinc smelting
                         Pesticide compounds in agriculture

     Cadmium             Lead, copper, and zinc smelting

     Fluorine            Inorganic chemical manufacturing
                         Electric utilities

     Nickel              Electric utilities
                         Industrial combustion

     Selenium            Electric utilities

     Total emissions of four of the trace elements are postulated to
decrease after 1975:

     Trace Element       Source of Decrease in Emissions

     Asbestos            Controls on asbestos mining activity
                         Materials substitution in final product
                           manufacturing

     Beryllium           Controls on emissions from fossil fuel
                           combustion

     Manganese           Controls on emissions from fossil fuel
                           combustion

     Mercury             Reduced use in chemicals, paints, and
                           pesticide manufacture.
      MITRE Corporation, National Environmental Impact Projection
  No» 1,  Consad Research, Inc., Control Data Corporation,  Inter-
  national  Research and Technology,  Inc.,  The MITRE Corporation,
  McLean, Virginia,  1978.
                                 141

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1-0
         II. NEW YORK/
         NEW JERSEY
                                                                                    UTILITIES

                                                                                    INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION

                                                                                    NON-FERROUS METALS

                                                                                    INORGANIC CHEMICALS
         * REGION EMITS BETWEEN 20% AND 30% OF THE NATIONAL TOTAL.
        ** REGION EMITS OVER 30% OF THE NATIONAL TOTAL.
        Source:  The MITRE Corporation, National  Environmental  Impact Projection
        No.  1,  Consad Research Corp., Control  Data Corp., International Research
        and  Technology,  Inc.,  The MITRE Corp.,  McLean, Virginia,  December 1978.
                                                FIGURE 4-21
                             MAJOR SOURCES OF TRACE ELEMENT EMISSIONS
                                                 BY REGION
                                                    1975

-------
     The above emission predictions are based upon emission sources
documented in the SEAS system.  Sufficient data were not available to
make predictions for different scenarios.

     Effects of Trace Element Emissions

     Trace element emissions are small compared with other pollu-
tants, but their relatively high toxicity significantly increases the
severity of their potential impact on health and the environment.
Although national levels may be comparatively low, toxic emissions
from only a few sources could cause localized environmental degrada-
tion.  This is especially the case with the primary metals industry.
Nonferrous smelters are geographically concentrated in Arizona (for
copper) and Pennsylvania (for zinc).  Arsenic, cadmium, and antimony
emission levels from these individual sources could cause local
damage.

     Most energy-related trace element emissions are associated with
coal combustion.  In spite of increased dependence upon coal for
fuel, electric utility emissions are expected to be stable or to
decline, depending upon the energy scenario assumptions, because of
more efficient particulate emission control methods.  They would
generate a significant proportion of national emissions of selenium,
manganese, beryllium, and nickel, with only selenium and nickel
emissions expected to increase after 1975.  However, although total
emissions from utilities are forecast to decrease, there still may be
localized problems.  It is expected that trace element emissions from
industrial combustion will be smaller and less locally concentrated
than those from electrical utilities, and will therefore be of less
environmental concern.

4.8  IMPLICATIONS OF AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS TRENDS

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 4.8

o  The projected reductions (15 to 25 percent) in particulate genera-
   tion from human activities would be especially effective in lower-
   ing emission densities in the heavily populated Northeast and
   Midwest regions of the United States where the bulk of current
   ambient air quality violations occur.  On the other hand, areas in
   the southwestern and western states that do not meet total sus-
   pended particulate standards would probably not show any signifi-
   cant improvement over time because of the substantial component of
   natural fugitive dust emissions as a source.

o  Although total sulfur oxide emissions are projected to remain re-
   latively constant over time, considerable change in local air
   quality can be expected.  Western counties in the immediate

                                  143

-------
   vicinity of copper smelters, for example, can anticipate substan-
   tial improvement in air quality due to emission control require-
   ments.  Sulfur dioxide concentrations in the Northeast corridor
   will probably remain a problem through 2000, and some new local
   problem areas may arise in the South Central and Mountain Regions
   (Federal Regions VI and VIII) as a consequence of much higher
   utilization of coal.

o  Ambient air quality problems resulting from excessive carbon
   monoxide and photochemical oxidant concentrations, which are
   primarily urban phenomena, are projected to be virtually elimi-
   nated by 2000 through the application of mobile source control
   technologies.

o  Because of the projected increase in emissions of sulfur and
   nitrogen oxides, the incidence and severity of acidic precipita-
   tion are expected to increase over time.

4.8.1  Introduction

     No single model exists that can translate estimates of emission
tonnages into measures of ambient air quality.  Many of the signifi-
cant impacts on air quality result from the interaction and transfor-
mation of the various components of air pollutants.  Given these
factors, it is extremely difficult to generate precise estimates of
likely trends for human exposures to specific air pollutants or mixes
of air pollutants.

     Even with more precise information on probable human exposure
trends, it would be difficult to define the likely human health
impacts with any degree of specificity.

     Several studies"-* have attributed incidences of various
respiratory disease (e.g., chronic bronchitis, emphysema, pneumonia,
influenza, asthma) to atmospheric pollution in the form of particu-
lates, for example, but correlation between these studies has not
been good.  Since factors such as occupational exposure, cigarette
smoking, nutrition, and genetics also affect assessment of human
health impacts, no one estimate of health impacts can be used with
any certainty.  However, calculations of long-term environmental
effects should improve as more information is collected on the
        L., and E. Seskin, Air Pollution and Human Health, John
  Hopkins University Press, 1977.  Also, National Academy of
  Sciences, Air Quality and Stationary Source Emissions Control,
  March 1975.  Also, Crocker, T. et al., Methods Development for
  Assessing Air Pollution Control Benefits, U.S. Environmental
  Protection Agency, February 1979.

                                144

-------
effects reported on human beings, animals, and vegetation from expo-
sure to various air pollutants.

     Realizing these limitations, the objective in this section is to
provide insights into the future nature of environmental problems,
with the focus on trends at the Federal Region level, supplemented by
detailed examination of some local conditions.  Three analytical
approaches were utilized as appropriate:

     1) To estimate the general potential for human exposure to pol-
        lutants, projections of Federal Region net emission densities
        (in terms of tons of pollutant emitted per square mile of
        land area) were compared with projections of regional popula-
        tion density.  These relationships were calculated for both
        1975 and 2000, and under both economic growth scenarios.

     2) Regional distributions of current ambient air quality viola-
        tions were tabulated to identify critical local problem areas
        and emission sources.  By attempting to correlate violations
        with particular pollutant sources, it was possible in some
        cases to infer the probable air quality impacts for a spe-
        cific growth trend or regulatory initiative.

     3) Wherever non-SEAS projections of ambient air quality were
        available, they were examined for compatibility with SEAS
        trend information.  The principal sources of ambient
        projections were the Council on Environmental Quality annual
        reports.

     Following the pollutant-by-pollutant analysis, Section 4.8.7
discusses the synergistic effects of air emissions (e.g., acid rain
and photochemical oxidant formation).

     SEAS projections are developed for a highly aggregated regional
grid (i.e., the Federal Regions), thus the ability of the trend pro-
jections to portray local conditions is limited.  The scenarios used
in this analysis, as indicated in the assumptions section of this
chapter, do not reflect changes in regional growth patterns or in-
creased control-induced emission reductions that result from the
        recently established Environmental Criteria and Assess-
  ment Office, Research Triangle Park, NC (ECAO/RTP) is collecting
  and critically assessing information on health impacts and other
  effects of various air pollutants.  Such information is also being
  collected in a central data base sponsored by the Electric Power
  Research Institute, members of the nonferrous smelting industry,
  and Arthur D. Little, Inc., of Cambridge, Massachusetts.
                                 145

-------
non-attainment or PSD restrictions placed on particular localities.
Therefore, where the discussion that follows indicates a potential
for continuing ambient problems,  in many cases these conditions can
be effectively mitigated by these existing regulatory policies man-
dated in the 1977 Clean Air Act Amendments.  However, since these
additional control requirements will result in increased costs for
emission sources- and may inhibit future growth in the area, these
problem areas seem to be worth identifying.

4.8.2  Implications of Particulate Emission Trends

     The trends for particulate emission densities and average
population densities presented in Section 4.2 are plotted in Figure
4-22, relating net particulate emissions to the average number of
people exposed.  (This figure is based on SEAS data.)  A more precise
site-specific measurement of population exposure is preferable when
discussing potential health impacts; nevertheless,  trends presented
in this figure may be used to identify areas where health impacts
from net particulate emissions may be significant as projected by
SEAS.  A more detailed assessment would need to include naturally
occurring particulates as well as fugitive dust from human activities
such as agricultural tilling, construction, and dirt roads.  These
sources and their contribution to total suspended particulates are
discussed separately later in this section.

     Emission Densities

     As shown in Figure 4-22, the Middle Atlantic Region (Federal
Region III) had the highest emission density in 1975, with 22 tons of
particulates per square mile.  Emission densities in the Great Lakes,
New York-New Jersey, and Southeast Regions (Federal Regions V, II,
and IV) also were well above the national average of 5 tons per
square mile.

     The emissions in Federal Regions II, III, IV and V are espe-
cially significant because people are highly concentrated in these
regions, and hence the potential for human health impact is greater.
In the western and midwestern regions (Federal Regions VI through X),
where average population densities tend to be below 70 people per
square mile and average emission densities for human activities are
below 4 tons per square mile, the potential for human health impacts
is low.

     Projected trends in net particulate emission density and popula-
tion density from 1975 to 2000 are also illustrated in Figure 4-22
for the High and Low Growth Scenarios.  For four of the most heavily
populated regions of the country—the New York—New Jersey, Middle
Atlantic, Southeast, and Great Lakes Regions (Federal Regions II,

                                 146

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oi

W
^

w
p.
w
g
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 \
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1 \
\ \
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V 'A

1 \ \
a i \
i\ i \
11 \ H
II \
\
II \

X\~~^~* 11 \
1 '

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National
\\ Average
/ \ o^^
VI I/ * °"^
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yw
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IXx*
    i.o--<
                                  4-
             50     100     150    200     250 v   450     500
            AVERAGE POPULATION DENSITY (PEOPLE PER SQUARE MILE)
Note:   The  particulate emission densities shown here are based on
       estimated emissions from human activity.  They do not reflect
       the  impact of fugitive dust on TSP concentrations.  In some
       areas  (e.g. Federal Regions VII,  VIII, and IX) fugitive dust
       is a major contributor to ambient TSP levels.
                          FIGURE 4-22
      TRENDS IN NET PARTICULATE EMISSION DENSITY VERSUS
               POPULATION DENSITY 1975 AND 2000
           COUNTIES CONTAINING CLASS  I PSD AREAS
    POTENTIAL POPULATION EXPOSURE TO SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS
                                147

-------
Ill, IV, and V)—emission densities are projected to decline signifi-
cantly between 1975 and 2000.   The expanded use of more efficient air
pollution control devices on electric utilities and industrial boil-
ers is primarily responsible for this decline.   In the Central Region
(Federal Region VII), net emissions are also expected to decline--in
this case because of reductions in the amount of dust created by the
construction materials industry.

     In the remaining regions  (Federal Regions  I, VI, VIII, IX, and
X), net particulate emissions  are projected to  increase over time.
This is due in large part to the expected increase in coal utiliza-
tion for industrial combustion and electricity  generation.

     This pattern of projections suggests that  currently legislated
standards for TSP (e.g., SIP,  NSPS, and revised NSPS) could be effec-
tive in relieving TSP loadings in the most heavily polluted regions
in  the country.  However, in regions where concentrations are rela-
tively low, the reductions expected through the implementation of
controls would be more than offset by large percentage increases in
the rate of coal combustion.  The resulting increases in particulate
emissions may violate PSD standards in some of the many Class I areas
in  these regions.  It is important to note that in areas such as the
"sunbelt" regions that presently are not heavily populated or indus-
trialized, emission densities are significantly lower than in the
urbanized areas of the northeastern U.S.  As a result, health impacts
from emissions in the sunbelt will potentially remain lower, even
though  they increase.

     Fugitive Dust Problems

     The discussion  of particulate emissions so  far has dealt only
with net emissions from human activities, such as  industrial combus-
tion, electricity generation, and  stone  crushing.  These  estimates
were derived  from the SEAS model,  which uses projections  of  indus-
trial activity and energy production  and consumption  to calculate
atmospheric emissions.   Studying  the  emissions  from these  activities
is  especially important  in  assessing  the effectiveness of  currently
promulgated standards.   Also,  emissions  from human activities are
more  likely  to be  composed  of  toxic  materials  than are  fugitive  dust
emissions, and they  therefore  represent  potentially  greater  impacts
to human health.

      Nevertheless, the  standards  for TSP do not  differentiate  among
the pollutants'  sources  or  measure toxicity levels.   Particulate
standards  are stated in  micrograms per cubic meter (ug/m3).   Fugi-
tive  dust  is  thus  a  component  of  TSP;  in many  areas  it  is  the  com-
ponent  that  causes violations  of  primary ambient air quality
standards.

                                  148

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     Until a few years ago, fugitive dust was considered to be the
result of unavoidable natural phenomena.  However, EPA studies have
shown that the most dominant fugitive sources in and around urban
areas are those that result directly or indirectly from or during
human activity.  The major sources of fugitive emissions and dust are
listed in Table 4-18.

     EPA has estimated the total particulates generated as fugitive
emissions and/or fugitive dust in those Air Quality Control Regions
(AQCR1s) violating either primary or secondary TSP standards °'
(i.e., non-attainment areas).68  These particulate estimates which
are not included in SEAS, are categorized as point or area sources
and are grouped by Federal Regions in Table 4-19.  Area sources are
the most significant contributors to TSP, with the West, Great Lakes,
and South Central Regions (Federal Regions IX, V, and VI) accounting
for half the nation's area source emissions.  Fugitive emissions and
dust are also of concern in the New York-New Jersey and the Middle
Atlantic Regions (Federal Regions II and III) because of the high
densities of area source emissions.

     The EPA study found that area sources of fugitive emissions and
dust are the significant emitters of particulates in the majority of
these non-attainment areas.  In 92 percent of the 150 AQCRs violating
TSP standards, area sources exceeded point source emissions.  In
fact, 58 of the 150 AQCRs had area source emissions that were 10
times greater than the point source emissions.

     The data suggest a strong correlation between the incidence of
TSP violations and area source emissions.  However, this may not
always be the case.  If only one county within an AQCR is in viola-
tion, the AQCR is classified as being in violation.  For example,
AQCR 146 includes virtually the entire state of Nebraska (86 of its
93 counties).  Since this is one of the largest AQCRs in the nation,
it is not surprising that it has the highest estimate of area source
emissions,  1235 x 1CH tons per year.  However, since only one
county within the AQCR was actually in violation, it is difficult to
say whether the area sources were in fact responsible.   In other
parts of the country, such as the Los Angeles area (AQCR 24),  area
source emissions from construction activity are very high and are
likely to have caused the ambient violations in that area.
°?U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Particulate Control for
 ^Fugitive Dust. EPA-600/7-78-071,  April 1978.
""Non-attainment areas refer to counties or portions of counties
  currently classified as having ambient concentrations of a pol-
  lutant that are in excess of National  Ambient Air Quality
  Standards.
                                 149

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                              TABLE 4-18
                SOURCES OF FUGITIVE EMISSIONS AND DUST
          Source
o  Agricultural Tilling
o  Construction Activity
o  Industrial Sources
                                                 Description
o  Dirt Roads
o  Paved Roads
o  Off-road Motor Vehicles
o  Tailing Piles
o  Open Burning
o  Wind Erosion
Major source of fugitive dust from
human activity.  May contain harmful
pesticide residue.

Dust generated during the construction
process and by wind action over the
cleared land.

Storage piles, materials handling
equipment, pulverizing equipment,
furnaces, and dryers.  Dust escapes
through vents, doors, windows, poorly
maintained equipment, etc.

Generally located in sparsely popu-
lated rural areas.  Health impacts
are relatively small.

Dust emitted to the air by motor
vehicles—particulate matter from
sand and dirt, wearing of vehicle
parts, and engine exhaust.

Motorcycles, jeeps, other recreational
vehicles.  Localized impacts may be
significant.

Overburden and mining wastes stored
in huge piles.  Dust is carried to
the air by wind action or during
loading/unloading operations.

Residential, commercial, industrial
refuse burning, slash fires.  NEDS
data indicates this source is rela-
tively small.

Susceptibility of soils, rocks, etc.
to erosion by wind action often
increases when land is altered by
human activity (e.g., unpaved roads,
agricultural fields, mining and con-
struction sites).
                                 150

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                               1 TABLE 4-19
         POINT AND AREA SOURCES OF FUGITIVE EMISSIONS AND DUST
                IN AQCRS  THAT DID NOT MEET TSP STANDARDS
                    Emissions (10  Tons/¥r)

I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.

AQCR =
TSP =
Source
Region
New England
New York-New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total
Total
Point
Source
129
301
1654
2197
2255
552
581
289
592
145
8695
Total Total
Industrial Area
Source Source
73
100
682
724
965
292
280
60
303
45
3524
959
2915
4907
3074
7020
6902
4118
2286
7855
3370
43406
Annual Emission Densities
Point
Source
3.0
9.5
15.8
13.5
11.4
1.5
3.2
0.7
1.6
0.6
4.1
Industrial
Source
1.7
3.2
6.5
4.4
4.9
0.8
1.5
0.1
0.8
0.2
1.7
(Tons /mi )
Area
Source
21.9
92.2
46.9
18.9
35.4
18.9
22.4
55
21.0
14.0
20.5
Air Quality Control Region
Total Suspended Particulates
: U.S. Environmental
Protection
Agency ,
Particulate
Control for
Fugitive Dust,

EPA-600/7-78-071,  Washington,  D.C.,  April 1978.

-------
     The number of counties in violation of  primary  TSP  standards  is
shown in Table 4-20.   Comparison of  the  estimates  of area  source
emissions in Table 4-19 and the violations  in Table  4-20 suggests
that area source emissions are significant  in both urban and  rural
environments.  Federal Regions IV, V,  and IX account for over half
the violations in the country, with  Federal  Region IX having  the
greatest percentage of counties in violation.  Of  interest is the
fact that about two-fifths of  the 236  violations were in rural
counties.  The area sources listed in  Table  4-16 probably  were
responsible for the majority of rural  ambient violations.

     National Parks,  Wilderness Areas, and  other such pristine envi-
ronments were classified as Class I  areas by the Clean Air Act
Amendments of 1977 in order to prevent any  significant deterioration
of air quality.69  Counties that contain any of the  159  Class I
areas currently designated are identified in Figure  4-23.   The actual
acreage, however, is less than 2 percent of  the nation's total land
area.  As shown, the majority of counties containing Class I  areas
are located in the West.  Increased  coal combustion  by power  plants
scheduled to come on line near these areas  and industrial  facilities
switching from oil and gas to abundant supplies of Texas lignite and
low-Btu high-ash western coals pose  a  potential threat to  air quality
in these western Class I areas.
       I Class I Counties
       Source:   Data from U.S.  Senate,  Congressional Record,
                November 1,  1977,  pp.  S18375-6.

                            FIGURE 4-23
             COUNTIES CONTAINING CLASS I PSD AREAS
        i areas refer to national park lands, forests, and other
  natural areas stringently protected from air quality deterioration
  by the 1977 Clear Air Act Amendments.

                                  152

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                                              TABLE  4-20
                    REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF COUNTIES WITH VIOLATIONS OF EPA PRIMARY
                              STANDARDS FOR TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATES
                                                 1975
Oi
u>

I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.

Region
New England
New York-New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total
Counties
Urban
9
6
18
16
44
11
11
9
14
7
145
in Violation
Rural
3
0
6
19
22
6
7
5
17
6
91
Total
12
6
24
35
66
17
18
14
31
13
236
Number of
Counties
in
Region
67
83
245
736
524
502
411
291
88
119
3066
Percent of
Counties
in
Violation
18
7
10
5
13
3
4
5
35
11
8
           Note:  Counties not in violation of  primary TSP standards were classified as
                 "better than national standards," "does not meet secondary standards,"
                  or "cannot be classified."

           Source:  Based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency SAROAD data system.

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     Conclusions

     Expected reductions in point source net particulate emissions in
the eastern United States (Federal Regions II, III, IV, and V)
between 1975 and 2000 are significant because (a) those regions were
the largest regional contributors of net particulates in 1975, and
(b) they contain the most densely populated areas in the nation.  In
the rest of the country, particulate emissions increases associated
with increased coal utilization are expected to exceed emission
reductions achieved by environmental controls.

     Even in areas where emissions trends appear good, many urban as
well as rural areas may not be unable to attain national ambient air
quality standards for TSP because of emissions from fugitive dust
sources.  The extent to which fugitive sources affect non-attainment
areas cannot be completely quantified, but EPA estimates suggest they
play a major role.  Currently available control techniques for reduc-
ing emissions from area sources have had small influence in reducing
fugitive emissions in most AQCRs.  More information is needed on
health impacts of particulates and on possible techniques for con-
trolling the portion of fugitive dust arising from certain human
activities.

4.8.3  Implications of Sulfur Oxide Emission Trends

     The emission trend projections for sulfur dioxide presented in
Section 4.3 of this report estimate that total national sulfur oxides
(SOX) releases will remain fairly constant in the 1975-2000 period.
The regional distribution of sulfur dioxide emissions, however, is
projected to change substantially over the same time frame, primarily
as a result of the construction of new coal-burning industrial
facilities and power plants.

     This section assesses the implications of future sulfur dioxide
emission levels on human health and air quality on the basis of both
a general analysis of regional emission densities and a more detailed
examination of the sources of current non-attainment problems.  The
factors responsible for long-range transport phenomena are discussed
separately, because of their importance as explanatory variables.
This section of the report deals only with the direct implications of
sulfur oxide emissions; the atmospheric interaction between sulfur
oxide and particulates and the role of sulfur oxide in acid rain
formation are both discussed in Section 4.8.7.

     Emission Densities

     The relationship between regional emission and population densi-
ties is graphically illustrated in Figure 4-24 for the years 1975 and

                                  154

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  2
             1975
             2000
             Change from 1975 to  2000_
             in High Growth Scenario
             Change from 1975 to  2000
             in Low Growth Scenario
             No change from 1975  to 2000
             in High or Low Growth
             Scenarios
  en W
  W
  O W
    ,-J
  Z M
  o a
  I—I
  in w
  C/3 OJ
  W *^
  s o
  w o-
    en
  W
  u us
20--
      10- -
    o
    H
                                         FEDERAL REGIONS

                                   I.    New  England
                                   II.    New  York/ New Jersey
                                   III.   Middle Atlantic
                                   IV.    Southeast
                                   V.    Great Lakes
                                   VI.    South Central
                                   VII.   Central
                                   VIII.  Mountain
                                   IX.    West
                                   X.    Northwest
                                      V."
            National
            Average
        vi' vii
          ,'0
                                                       -I-
         0        50      100 120    "   200      300      400      500
              AVERAGE POPULATION  DENSITY (PEOPLE PER  SQUARE MILE)

      Note: The effects  of  atmospheric dispersion and long distance
           transport are not  incorporated  in  this comparison. See
           text for details.  Region X does  not  include Alaska in this
           figure.
                              FIGURE 4-24
POTENTIAL POPULATION EXPOSURE TO SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS
                                   155

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2000 under both High and Low Growth Scenarios.   This comparison,
although it does not account for pollutant transport between regions
or locally varying concentrations, can provide  a broad overview of
the potential for human exposure to sulfur dioxide.

     In 1975, the four regions with the highest population
densities—New England, New York-New Jersey,  Middle  Atlantic, and
Great Lakes (Federal Regions I, II, III, and  V)—also contained some
of the heaviest concentrations of projected sulfur dioxide emissions,
thereby increasing the overall potential for  adverse health impacts
such as short- and long-term respiratory infections.  Over time, the
general levels of emissions in Federal Region V, and to a lesser
extent in Federal Regions II and III, are expected to show signifi-
cant improvement under both scenarios, as controls placed on existing
coal-burning facilities begin to influence total emissions, while
population grows at a rate slower than the national  average.

     Conversely, sulfur dioxide emission densities in the sunbelt
states (Federal Regions IV and VI) would greatly increase over time
and are coupled with rapid population expansion.  Although these
regions do not have many current sulfur dioxide violations, they may
develop localized ambient problems as a result  of their projected
increased coal consumption.

     Analysis of Current Non-Attainment Problems

     Insights about the potential severity of future sulfur dioxide
problems can be sought by analyzing the emission conditions believed
responsible for current ambient air quality violations.  Some infor-
mation about regional distribution of sulfur  dioxide violations in
1975 is shown in Table 4-21.70

     Attempts to develop a correlation between ambient air quality
problem areas, "hot spots", and the presence  of major sulfur dioxide
emission sources have met with only partial success.  For example,
the copper industry, although a minor source  of national sulfur diox-
ide concentrations, 8 percent, has long been viewed as a critical
source of localized problems.  Of the 13 counties containing copper
smelters, 10 were found to be in violation of primary ambient air
quality standards; these included the bulk of air quality problem
areas in the Mountain and Western Regions (Federal Regions VIII and
IX).  Since full compliance with current emission standards would
greatly reduce smelter discharges of sulfur dioxide, air quality in
these hot spots can be expected to improve over time.
70Federal Register, March 3, 1978, pp. 8963-9059.


                                  156

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                                           TABLE 4-21
        REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF COUNTIES WITH VIOLATIONS  OF  EPA SULFUR DIOXIDE  STANDARDS
                                               1975

I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.

Region
New England
New York-New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total

Urban
1
1
4
6
26
1
3
2
2
1
47
Counties in Violation
Rural
1
-
4
7
12
2
-
4
5
2
37

Total
2
1
8
13
38
3
3
6
7
3
84
Number of
Counties
in
Region
67
83
245
736
524
502
411
291
88
119
3066
Percent of
Counties
in
Violation
3
1
3
2
7
1
1
2
8
3
3
 Compliance information was  not  available  for a number of heavily populated urban  centers
  such as New York City,  Chicago,  and  large portions  of California.

Note:  Counties not in violation of primary S02  standards were classified as  "better than
       national standards," "does not  meet  secondary  standards," or  "cannot be classisifed."

Source:  Based on U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency SAROAD data system.

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     On the other hand, only 13 counties out of the 50 largest
producers of coal-fired electricity were found to be currently out of
compliance, despite the fact that coal power plants generated 60
percent of 1975 emissions.^  High correlation does exist, however,
between the overall concentration of power plant sites and the occur-
rence of ambient violations in the northeastern corridor of the
United States.

     Long-Range Transport

     The long-range transport of sulfur dioxide emissions from upwind
utilities and large industrial boilers has contributed to sulfur
oxide concentrations in non-attainment areas in Ohio, Pennsylvania,
New York and New England.  Since future air quality in these areas is
closely tied to the transport phenomenon, factors influencing pollu-
tant transport are described below.

     In recent years, the long-range transport of pollutants has been
documented by many research programs.    Four basic factors affect
the amount of transport that will occur during any given time frame:

     1.  Local air dispersion factors such as tall stacks, nighttime
         or cloudy conditions, constant windspeed and direction, and
         altitude.
     2.  Persistence of surface winds for 6 hours or more.
     3.  Prevailing winds at plant stack heights.
     4.  Large-scale meteorological conditions resulting from the
         relative movements of low- and high-pressure weather systems
         that can create large regional areas of stagnation.

     When several emission sources are lined up in the same direction
as the wind, pollution concentrations can be intensified many miles
from the origin of the emissions.  These conditions occur frequently
in the northeastern United States where emissions from power plants
located along the Ohio River Basin frequently become entrained in
strong, prevailing southwest winds.  The impacts of this transport
have been felt as far away as western New York, New Hampshire, and
Maine.  These areas are receiving substantial amounts of sulfur
oxides by wind transport, largely from emission sources in the Ohio
^Estimates of coal-related electricity production (in 10" kWh)
  were derived from the Federal Power Commission's Form 67 data base
  for 1974.
^Several studies by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and
  the Electric Power Research Institute document the transport of
  sulfates.  See Office of Technology Assessment, The Direct Use of
  Coal, Washington, D.C., January 1979, p. 199.

                                158

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River Basin Area.73  Hence, the large projected reductions in net
emissions by 2000 in Federal Region V suggest that future transport
of sulfur oxide to the northeast may decrease.  This could help
improve air quality in some areas of Pennsylvania and West Virginia,
as well as in Federal Regions I and II, adding to the impact of local
efforts to control sulfur oxide emissions, such as the abatement
program currently under way in New York City.'^

     Other areas with strong potential for long-range sulfur oxide
transport include the northern Great Plains, southeastern Utah, the
southwest, and the Gulf Coast area in eastern Texas.  The Great
Plains area has many Class I regions vulnerable to emissions from
energy and power plant development proposed in that vicinity, so
facility siting must take these meteorological factors into account.

     Similarly, energy conversion facilities planned for construction
near the lignite fields of eastern Texas would be aligned approxi-
mately parallel to the prevailing southwest to northwest wind
direction and could lead to intensified sulfur dioxide concentrations
in the Southeast Region (Federal Region IV), Louisiana, and Arkansas.

4.8.4  Implications of Nitrogen Oxide Emission Trends

     As of 1975, the direct implications of nitrogen oxide emissions
were of much less environmental concern than the atmospheric trans-
formation of nitrogen oxide into acidic ions or photochemical oxi-
dants.  Only eight counties in the country (five urban areas in
California, Denver, and Chicago) were in violation of the long-term
annual ambient standards for nitrogen oxides.  Even with the
increases in nitrogen oxide emission levels projected in these
scenarios, the number of violators is not likely to increase greatly.
The impacts of nitrogen oxide emission trends on smog and acid rain
formation are discussed in Section 4.8.7.

4.8.5  Implications of Hydrocarbon Emission Trends

     As in the case of nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons are of concern
mainly because of their role as precursors to oxidant formation.
Consequently, the discussion on the implication of hydrocarbon emis-
sion trends has been incorporated into the oxidant discussion in Sec-
tion 4.8.7.
^Teknekron, Energy and Environmental Engineering Division,
  Transport and Fate and Gaseous Pollutants Associated With the
  National Energy Plan, Berkeley, California, 1977.
7^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Annual Air Quality
  and Emission Trends Report, NTIS PB-263922, Research Triangle Park,
  North Carolina 1976.

                                 159

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4.8.6  Implications of Carbon Monoxide Emission Trends

     Air Quality Implications

     As of August 1977, 164 counties in the United States were not in
compliance with the primary NAAQS for carbon monoxide. -*  The pat-
tern of violations, illustrated in Table 4-22,  indicates that the
predominant carbon monoxide problems are located in the New England,
New York-New Jersey, Great Lakes, and West Regions (Federal Regions
I, II, V, and IX) and are primarily an urban phenomenon.  Although
the counties in violation are only 5 percent of total U.S. counties,
they contain over 40 percent of the American population.  It should
be noted that only one violation or two exceedances per year is
necessary for a county to be considered out of  compliance.  In these
urban environments, motor vehicles usually account for over 90 per-
cent of carbon monoxide emissions; therefore, the effectiveness of
mobile source control strategies is the key element in improving air
quality.

     Annual estimates of emissions, developed by EPA's Office of Air
and Waste Management, suggest that carbon monoxide emissions from
highway travel decreased by 15 percent between 1973 and 1976, as a
result of the application of control devices.'"  Actual monitoring
information from the EPA SAROAD data system on daily ambient
conditions in 13 major cities indicate that the number of carbon
monoxide violations decreased by 36 percent over the same period.
Despite this overall trend, four of the cities monitored
(Bakersfield, Fairbanks, Los Angeles, and Santa Barbara) showed no
major improvement, primarily as a result of increases in total
vehicle traffic.  To offset increases in urban traffic, there is a
need for additional measures such as inspection and maintenance
programs and disincentives to commuting as part of transportation
control plans.

     As indicated in Section 4.6.2, national carbon monoxide emis-
sions are projected to decrease about 45 percent between 1975 and
2000 under the High Growth Scenario, and about 60 percent under the
Low Growth Scenario.  These projected improvements stem from the
assumption that  the nation will attain full, on-schedule compliance
with the mobile  source standards set in 1977 for automobiles and
trucks.  By the  1982 model year, for example, new autos are expected
to release about  3.4 grams of carbon monoxide per vehicle mile
75Federal Register, March 3, 1978, pp. 8963-9059.
76U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Waste
  Management, National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report-1976,
  December  1977.
                                 160

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                                          TABLE  4-22
         REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION  OF  COUNTIES WITH VIOLATIONS  OF  CARBON MONOXIDE  STANDARDS
                                              1975


I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.


Region
New England
New York-New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total

Counties
Urban
12
28
7
11
29
4
7
14
26
10
148

in

Violation
Rural Total
2
2
2
1
0
2
0
1
6
0
16
14
30
9
12
29
6
7
15
32
10
164
Number of
Counties
in
Region
67
83
245
736
524
502
411
291
88
119
3066
Percent of
Counties
in
Violation
21
36
4
2
6
1
2
5
36
8
5
Total
Population
at Risk
(106)
5.6
19.2
6.7
5.0
20.0
1.9
2.9
3.0
20.7
3.5
88.5
Note:  Counties not in violation of primary CO standards were classified as "cannot be
       classified or  better than national standards."
Source:  Based on U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency SAROAD data system and U.S. Bureau
         of the Census  data.

-------
traveled for their first 50 thousand miles of operation.  According to
the latest calculated Mobile Source Emission Factors,  however,  the
deterioration factor for carbon monoxide emissions in these autos
should deteriorate by approximately 2.0 grams per mile per year of
vehicle operation.^7

     In the 1977 Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) annual
report, projections of future carbon monoxide ambient  quality were
developed, based on data in the CEQ's UPGRADE system.?°  This
analysis (Table 4-23) suggests that primary ambient carbon monoxide
standards can be met in all but seven urban areas by 1985, and  that
these remaining cities can be brought into compliance  by  1990.

     The CEQ assumptions can be contrasted with those  underlying the
SEAS scenarios.  The CEQ analysis assumed that an 80 percent reduc-
tion in auto emissions from 1975 could be obtained in urban areas if
the average emissions from the 1990 auto fleet were 15 grams per mile
and if central city vehicle traffic were to increase at 1 percent per
year.  SEAS projections, based on similar emission factors, estimate
a 70 percent decrease in total national auto emissions.  CEQ also
estimated a potential 50 percent reduction in truck-related emissions
by 1990, based on the application of current controls  and a 2 percent
per year increase in truck vehicle miles traveled.  SEAS  projects
only a 20-30 percent decrease in these emissions over  time, because
faster growth rates are assumed for the trucking industry.  CEQ also
noted other factors supporting substantial improvements in carbon
monoxide ambient quality, including the continuing "suburbanization"
of urban areas and the resulting decentralization of mobile source
emissions.  Overall, the SEAS emission trends would generate improve-
ments in air quality somewhat more modest than those forecast by CEQ,
even if full compliance with mobile source control standards could be
attained.

     The issue of actual mobile source control efficiencies has been
receiving a great deal of attention at EPA in recent years.  A  1977
EPA review of the mobile source emissions control program found that
the vast majority of the 1972-1975 model year vehicles tested for
emissions were substantially in violation of current carbon monoxide
standards.79  Actual emissions ranged from 150 to 225  percent of
7?U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air and Waste
  Management, Mobile Source Emission Factors,  December 1977.
^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality - 1977:
  The Eighth Annual Report, December 1977.
79Rorb, B.R. et al., Review of EPA's Emission Control Program for
  Light Duty Vehicles, draft report, December 1977.
                                 162

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                           TABLE 4-23

               TRENDS IN URBAN AMBIENT AIR QUALITY


                         1975,  1985, 1990
                                   Number of Days in Violation
          o

Urban Area                     of Primary Carbon Monoxide Standards

Albuquerque
Chicago
Denver
Fairbanks
Los Angeles
New York
Spokane
All other urban
Source: Council
1975
118
154
104
84
125
234
77
areas assumed to be in
on Environmental Quality
1985
17
5
13
3
13
11
3
full compliance
, Environmental
1990
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
by 1985.
Quality -
         1977;	The Eighth Annual Report.  December 1977.
                               163

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promulgated levels, primarily as a result of inadequate owner mainte-
nance.  Improvements in enforcement, particularly state implementa-
tion of mandatory emission inspection and maintenance programs, will
be needed to reduce these disparities in future years.

     Health Implications

     If the enforcement problems can be solved, the declining carbon
monoxide emission trends should produce some positive effects for
human health in urban areas.  It should be noted, however, that
indoor levels of carbon monoxide are not controlled.  Health conse-
quences of indoor exposure may be significant,  particularly where
ventilation is inadequate.

     The health effects associated with carbon monoxide emissions are
fairly well understood.  Contact with high daily concentrations of
carbon monoxide frequently results in short-terra problems like nau-
sea, headaches, and dizziness. On a long-term basis, the primary risk
of carbon monoxide exposure is to people with cardiovascular disease
and has been noted for individuals with angina pectoris.  About 4.2
million persons in the United States experience frequent attacks of
chest pains, up to several times a day, from this condition.  A CEQ
health risk assessment of conditions in nine urban areas estimated
that carbon monoxide emissions were responsible for 126,000 angina
attacks in 1975, or 0.3 percent of the total attacks estimated for
the metropolitan areas studied."^  Both short- and long-term health
problems can be expected to be substantially reduced as a result of
the projected emissions reductions in urban locales.

4.8.7  Synergistic Effects of Air Pollutant Emissions

     Many of the critical air pollution problems facing the nation
result not from a particular pollutant, but from interaction between
the various components of air pollutants (including their transforma-
tion into forms more harmful to human health).   Three of these syner-
gistic relationships are examined here:  (a) the combined effects of
high sulfur dioxide and particulate emissions;  (b) the transformation
of sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides into acidic ions, and their
subsequent deposition into watercourses through precipitation; and
(c) the roles of nitrogen oxides and hydrocarbons in the formation of
photochemical smog.
         K.H., "Development of a Relative Exposure Factor for the
  CEQ Health Risk Model," Council on Environmental Quality,
  Washington, B.C., 1978.
                               164

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     Synergistic Effects of SOX and Particulates

     Aside from the potential direct health effects of suspended sul-
fate particles and gaseous sulfur dioxide, synergistic effects are
theorized to occur when very fine particulates (less than 1 micron in
diameter) adsorb sulfur dioxide and forms of sulfates, such as sul-
furic acid (I^SO^).  As discussed previously, fine particulates
are a significant respiratory irritant in themselves, as are sulfur
oxides (SOX).  When adsorbed onto the surfaces of fine particles,
the effects of sulfur oxide compounds may be increased because these
particles tend to remain in the respiratory system for long peri-
ods. ®1  Studies have shown that this synergistic effect causes
"increased death rates for persons over 50 years of age" when parti-
culate concentrations are above 100 micrograms per cubic meter and
sulfate levels result in a sulfate precipitation rate of above 30 mil-
                                             Q O Q O
ligrams per square centimeter area per month.°^»OJ

     This means that regions with both high sulfur oxides and high
particulate concentrations, as in the Middle Atlantic and Great Lakes
Regions (Federal Regions III and V), are more likely to experience
greater adverse health effects from the combined effects of sulfur
oxides and particulates.

     Those counties that are concurrently in violation of sulfur
dioxide and TSP standards are identified in Table 4-24.  Since both
particulate and sulfur oxide emissions are expected to decline in
Federal Regions III and V, as well as in the Northeast (Federal
Regions I and II) and Southeast (Federal Region IV), the potential
negative effects on these localities may decline overall in spite of
the increase in regional population.  The South Central Region
(Federal Region VI), however, is projected to have sharp increases in
sulfur oxides and increases in particulates and may therefore
experience much higher levels of air pollution-related respiratory
disease.

     Acid Precipitation

     The mechanisms for acidic ion formation and the potential health
and ecological effects of acid precipitation are described in Chapter
5 (Section 5.3) of this report.  Areas in the United States where
acidic rainfall has been recorded are identified in Figure 4-25.
"^American Chemical Society, Cleaning Our Environment, A Chemical
  Perspective, 2nd Ed., Washington, D.C., 1978.
  As reported in Greenfield, Attaway and Tyler, Inc., A Review of
  the National Ambient Quality Standards for Sulfur Oxides and
  Particulate Matter, San Rafael, California, July 1975.
°\ig/cm'vmonth is the quantity that precipitates or settles into
  a square centimeter plate in 1 month's time.

                                 165

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                             TABLE 4-24
        REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF COUNTIES  WITH VIOLATIONS  OF
            BOTH SULFUR DIOXIDE AND PARTICULATE STANDARDS
                                1975

I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X

Region
New England
New York-New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total
Number of
Counties
0
7
6
4
18
0
1
2
4
2
44
Population Affected
(Millions)
—
10.6
4.1
2.0
11.5
—
1.1
0.6
3.7
0.5
33.1
Source:   Based on U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency SAROAD data
         system and U.S.  Bureau of the Census data.
                                 166

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 San Francisco
                   Spokane

          Portland I   /   •  Helena
                   Twin Falls   Sheridan
                       Portland
                   New York

                P~hiladelphia

                SJ
     Charleston & Washington

        J.
Louisville\
Los Angeles
        pH greater than  5.5

        pH between 5.0 and 5.5

        pH between 4.0 and 5.0

        pH less than 4.0

          Source:  U.S.  Congress, U.S.  House of Representatives,  Committee on Science  and
                   Technology, Environmental Challenges of  the  President's Energy Plan,
                   October 1977.
                                          FIGURE 4-25
                          REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF ACID RAINFALL

-------
 Normal  rainfall is considered to have a pH of approximately 5.6.
 Most  of  the major problem areas are located in the eastern United
 States,  with  some isolated acid rain conditions occurring around
 urban areas on the West Coast.  The intensification of acid preci-
 pitation problems in the Northeast between 1955 and 1973 is illus-
 trated in Figure 4-26.
 1955-56
1972-73
                                                                 5.60
                                                          00
Source:   U.S.  Environmental Protection  Agency/U.S. Department of
         Energy,  Energy/Environment  Fact  Book, Washington, D.C.,
         December 1977.

                           FIGURE 4-26
         TRENDS IN THE ACIDITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER
                  THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
                      1955-1956 TO 1972-1973
     Although sulfur oxide and nitrogen oxide  emissions  from local
fuel combustion activity may result  in substantial local  acidity,
acidic conditions are also supported by pollutants transported  long
distances.  At Lake Superior, for example,  constituents  of acid rain
are said to represent fallout from St.  Louis,  Cincinnati, and
Pittsburgh (all more than 500 miles  from  the lake).  ^  Long-range
transport of acidic ions has increased  in recent  years through
expanded construction of smelter and -power plant  facilities with tall
exhaust stacks.  EPA has recently proposed regulations which may help
to limit the number of tall stacks constructed for new sources.
8^Gannon, J., "Acid Rain Fallout:   Pollution and Politics,"
  National Parks and Conservation  Magazine,  October  1978,  pp.  16-21.
                                 168

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     In most regions, sulfur oxide is more important than nitrogen
oxides as a contributor of acidic ions to precipitation.  Studies by
Likens85 estimate that, in the northeast, sulfates represented
about two thirds of the acid component, and nitrates, about one-
third.  However, Likens concluded that the relative contribution of
nitrogen oxides to excess acidity had doubled in the decade between
1964 and 1974.  Furthermore, a 1978 study of acid rainfall in
Pasadena, California, indicates that nitric acid contributed almost
three-fifths of total ions.86

     Acid rains and snowfalls are likely to increase in frequency and
intensity over the next 25 years, despite attempts to control the
precursor pollutants, sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides.  Between
1975 and 2000, the SEAS model projects a 6 percent increase in sulfur
oxide emissions and a 43 percent increase in nitrogen oxide emissions
under conditions of high economic and energy growth.  The negative
impacts of these increases would be somewhat mitigated by the fact
that the fastest growth in emissions would occur in the southwest and
Rocky Mountain areas, neither of which has current acid rainfall
problems.  On the other hand, a larger portion of total emissions,
particularly of nitrogen oxide, will be released from tall stacks and
may be more susceptible to long-range transport and transformation
into acidic forms.

     Photochemical Oxidant Formation

     The extent of the problem is illustrated by information on the
counties in the United States that were in violation of the primary
ambient air quality standard for oxidants in 1975 (Table 4-25).^7
Although oxidant problems were pervasive throughout the nation, they
were particularly concentrated in the northeast (Federal Regions I,
II, and III).  Over three-fourths of the urban (SMSA) counties in the
United States were not in compliance because of heavy concentrations
of motor vehicle transportation in metropolitan areas.
^Likens, G.E. , "Acid Rain:  A Serious Regional Environmental
  Problem," Science, Vol. 184, 1974, pp. 1176-1179.
S^Liljestrand, H.M., and J.J. Morgan, "Chemical Composition of Acid
  Precipitation in Pasadena, California," Environmental Science and
  Technology, December 1978, pp. 1271-1273.
°'It should be noted that the data presented here were assembled
  on the basis of differing definitions of the oxidant standard.  The
  1975 compliance information is based on oxidant standard of 0.1 ppm
  then in effect.  The 1978 CEQ projections  of ambient conditions
  use a proposed standard of 0.08 ppm of ozone (which was actually
  relaxed to 0.12 ppm of ozone in the new standard promulgated in
  1979).
                                169

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                                            TABLE 4-25
             REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF COUNTIES WITH VIOLATIONS OF EPA OXIDANT STANDARDS
                                                1975

I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.

Region
New England
New York-New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total

Urban
17
38
46
38
82
23
17
10
21
7
299
Counties in
Rural
48
45
116
26
76
15
1
10
15
2
354
Violation
Total
65
83
162
64
158
38
18
20
36
9
653
Number of
Counties
in
Region
67
83
245
736
524
502
411
291
88
119
3066
Percent of
Counties
in
Violation
97
100
66
9
30
8
4
7
41
8
21
"ote:  Counties in violation of primary oxidant standards were classified as "cannot be
       classified or better than national standards."  Less than 300 counties were being
       monitored for oxidants in 1975.


Source:  Based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency SAROAD data system.

-------
     The elimination of either precursor pollutant (nitrogen oxide or
hydrocarbon) should logically reduce the formation of oxidants by
limiting the availability of one of the essential components.  Sev-
eral studies have tried to determine the relative value of reducing
concentrations of nitrogen oxide and hydrocarbons in inhibiting the
photochemical process.  In general, the results suggest that reducing
either precursor would reduce the rate of oxidant formation.  Current
regulatory practices have attempted to control oxidants almost
entirely by limiting hydrocarbon emission.  Estimates of the regional
air quality implications of compliance with existing hydrocarbon
standards were prepared by the Council on Environmental Quality and
are summarized in Table 4-26.

     The scenario projections of emissions for the precursors of oxi-
dant formation are discussed in Sections 4.4 and 4.5.  Nitrogen oxide
emissions are projected to increase to about 125-150 percent of the
1975 levels because of increased use of coal as a fuel and the lack
of adequately demonstrated control technologies to place on these
emissions.  Hydrocarbon emissions, on the other hand, are projected
to decrease significantly, due to the impact of currently mandated
control measures imposed on automobiles, the major source of the
hydrocarbon emissions.

     The significance and impacts of these countervailing trend
projections are difficult to assess for two main reasons:

     1.  A satisfactory general model of the atmospheric reactions
involving nitrogen oxide and hydrocarbons has not yet been developed,
so it is difficult to say what levels of oxidant production would
result from the increase in nitrogen oxides and decrease of hydro-
carbons.
     2.  Oxidant formation is further complicated by the "transport
phenomenon," that is, the movement of air from one area to another.
The transportation of either nitrogen oxide or hydrocarbons to
another area where the other is present can cause the production of
oxidants in that area.  Studies in Los Angeles have indicated that a
substantial portion of total oxidant formation is taking place
downwind of the original discharge points.
                                  171

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                   TABLE  4-26
   EXPECTED  HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS  REDUCTION AND
            AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS
                  1975 and  1990
Area
Baltimore
Boston
Chicago
Cincinnati
Denver
District of
Columbia Metro-
politan Area
Houston
NY. , N. J. , Conn.
Philadelphia
St. Louis
San Francisco
California South
Ci'ast Basin
Upland
Pasadena
Source: Council on
The Eighth
Percent
HC
Reduction
59
61
48
58
65

64
48
61
58
53
53


59
59
Environmental
Annual Report
Days Above Oxidant
Standards
1975
51
41
33
50
70

61
75
77
102
54
84


247
195
1990
5
0
2
0
0

<1
9
4
9
2
3


40
25
Quality, Environmental
, Washington,
Percent
Reduction
in Days
90
100
94
100
100

99
88
95
91
97
96


84
87
Quality— 1977:
D.C., December 1977,
p. 183.
                        172

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                          CHAPTER 5
           GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION
                       HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 5

o  Carbon dioxide concentration,  acid deposition,  and  stratospheric
   ozone depletion are major issues in global atmospheric pollution,

o  The important pollutants fall  into three categories:   those  stable
   in the troposphere and stratosphere, those unstable in the  tropo-
   sphere, and those stable in the troposphere  but unstable  in  the
   stratosphere.

o  The emitted pollutants in each case exhibit  sufficiently  long
   lifetimes in the atmosphere to'be transported long  distances and
   thereby have widespread influence.

o  The global effects of atmospheric pollution  have not  yet  been
   quantitatively determined, but this problem  merits  worldwide con-
   cern.

5.1  INTRODUCTION

     The topics in this chapter—carbon dioxide concentration,  acid
deposition, and stratospheric ozone depletion—are major issues in
atmospheric pollution.  Their impacts have growing global implica-
tions .

     In each case, emitted pollutants exhibit sufficiently long life-
times in the atmosphere to be transported long  distances and thereby
have widespread influence.  Carbon dioxide is,  for all practical
purposes, uniformly distributed in the atmosphere even though  its
sources are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere.   Acid precipita-
tion results mainly from nitrogen and sulfur compounds,  which  are
transported regionally before becoming the sulfates and  nitrates  that
create the acidic precipitation.   In ozone depletion,  the long-range
transport of ozone-depleting compounds and elements is vertical,
resulting in increased concentrations of these  materials in  the
stratosphere, where they accelerate the natural destruction  of  ozone.

     The effects of these processes on people and the  environment
have not yet been quantitatively determined.  So far as  we know now,
only acid deposition exhibits short-term effects.   The atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide is known to have increased over the
past 100 years, yet the possible  climatic impacts resulting  from an
altered earth radiation budget have not been observed, perhaps
because the magnitude of natural  climatic variation is sufficient  to
dwarf human impact at this time.   The ozone depletion predicted to

                                  173

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result from release of chlorofluorocarbon gases, or from aircraft
flight in the stratosphere, has yet to be detected; again the reason
is that large natural variation may mask the probable effect.

     Each of these problems merits worldwide concern, not only be-
cause the sources of pollutants are widely distributed but also be-
cause the adverse effects would be suffered globally.  Further, at
least for CQ^ and ozone depletion, even stringent control efforts
that would completely eliminate the causes would not result in
immediate cessation of the effects.  The time scale of chemical
reactions, transport and climate dynamics suggest, in both of these
cases, that decades might pass before maximum impact on the atmos-
phere would occur.

5.2  CARBON DIOXIDE

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 5.2

o  Carbon dioxide is stable in the troposphere and stratosphere and
   is expected to influence global climate as its atmospheric con-
   centration rises, predominantly as a result of fossil fuel com-
   bustion, deforestation, and changing land use patterns.

o  Controlling fossil fuel combustion emissions or reversing de-
   forestation appears to be difficult technically, economical-
   ly, and socially.

o  Carbon dioxide control strategies may be classified according
   to choice of fuels or energy technology, C02 capture, C02
   storage, or C02 convers'ion.

o  Regional shifts in temperature and precipitation could have
   profound impacts on agriculture, regional hydrology and energy
   use, resulting in profound sociopolitical consequences.

5.2.1  Introduction

     Problem Identification and Regulatory Background

     According to West Germany's Chancellor Helmut Schmidt,^

     Forseeably, we will within the next two decades get into
     a worldwide debate about the irrevocable consequences of
     burning hydrocarbons—whether oil or coal or lignite or
     wood or natural gas—because the carbon dioxide fallout,
     as science more or less equivocally tells us, results in
     a heating up of the globe as a whole.
*As reported in Time 113(24), June 11, 1979, p. 39.

                                 174

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     Many scientists believe that the burning of fossil fuels is the
largest contributor to rising atmospheric C09 levels.^  Others
                                                          *5
suggest that deforestation may also play a prominent role.-3

     Increased atmospheric C02 acts as a one-way filter for the
sun's energy, conceivably warming the earth enough to cause sig-
nificant worldwide climatic and environmental changes.  In this
so-called "greenhouse effect," atmospheric CC^ is transparent
to visible light but absorbs infrared radiation (IR) emitted by the
earth's surface to space.  As atmospheric C02 levels rise, less IR
heat escapes freely to space, and a portion of the now absorbed heat
is re-radiated back to earth.

     The projected trends discussed later indicate that only with
optimistic assumptions concerning the mechanisms of the global carbon
cycle and with low growth rates in use of fossil fuel for energy will
the C02~induced temperature increase be held below an average of
2°C during the next century.  Finally, uncertainty over future fossil
fuel use growth rates, associated temperature effects, and the exist-
ence of compounding factors (such as particulate emissions that
accompany fossil fuel burning and may offset, somewhat, CC>2-induced
global warming) will contribute to the C02 problem as a major envi-
ronmental concern through the 1980s.

     No existing U.S. environmental regulations specifically address
control of CCU emissions.  However, if the C(>2 problem were to
assume more importance, two sections of the Clean Air Act (CAA)
Amendments of 1977 could be brought to bear.  The first, Section 122,
authorizes the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency
to review any unregulated pollutant and, if deemed appropriate, to
classify it as a criteria air pollutant under Section 108 to
"...protect public health and welfare."  Section 157, among others in
Part B of the CAA Amendments of 1977, also enables EPA's Administra-
tor to promulgate regulations for control (taking into account the
2Baes, C.E., Jr., H.E. Goeller, J.S. Olson, and R.M. Rotty, "Carbon
 Dioxide and Climate:  The Uncontrolled Experiment," American
 Scientist, Vol. 65, 1977, p. 310.  Also see Bolin, B., "The General
 Circulation of the Atmosphere and the  Distribution of Climatic
 Zones," Annual Review of Energy, Vol. 2, 1977, pp. 204-218.  Also,
 Keeling, C.D. and R.B. Bacastow, "Impact of Industrial Gases on
 Climate," in Studies in Geophysics:  Energy and Climate, National
 Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 1977.
3Woodwell, G.M., R.H. Whittaker, W.A. Rivers, G.E. Likens, C.C.
 Delwiche, and D.B. Botkin, "The Biota and the World Carbon Budget,"
 Science, Vol. 199, 1978, pp. 141-146.  Also see Keeling, C.D.,
 R.B. Bacastow, A.E. Bainbridge, C.A. Ekdahl, P.R. Guenther, L.S.
 Waterman, and J.F.S. Chin, "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variations at
 the South Pole," Tellus, Vol. 28, 1976, p. 538.

                                175

-------
feasibility and costs of control) of "...any substance, practice,
process or activity [which] may reasonably be anticipated to affect
the stratosphere, especially ozone in the stratosphere, and [for
which] such effect may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public
health or welfare."  Nevertheless, if C(>2 regulation becomes neces-
sary, the scope and magnitude of such regulation may likely require
specific enabling legislation.

     In the United States,  C02 research is the responsibility of
the National Climate Program Office in the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.  Under the terms of the National Climate
Program Plan, the Department of Energy has assumed research respon-
sibility for C02 effects on the environment and society.

     International Cooperation and Regulation

     Section 156 of the CAA Amendments of 1977 empowers the Presi-
dent, through the Secretary of State, "...to enter into international
agreements to foster cooperative research which complements studies
and research authorized by this part [B], and to develop standards
and regulations which protect the stratosphere."  No such formal co-
operation has yet been established concerning possible C02 pollution.
However, international cooperation exists between the U.S. Climate
Program and the National Academy of Sciences (Climate Research Board)
through the World Meterological Organization.  The "Earthwatch" pro-
gram of the United Nations  Environmental Program (UNEP), the In-
ternational Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), and the
International Energy Agency (IEA) of the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD) have been following and studying
trends of increasing C02 levels in the atmosphere.  These organi-
zations' efforts have been supplemented by numerous international
symposia on global carbon dioxide buildup over the past few years.
Many of these meetings were sponsored by U.S. organizations.

     Relevant Scenario Assumptions

     To assess trends over the next 50 years in global carbon dioxide
buildup in the atmosphere,  two non-SEAS fossil fuel use scenarios
have been devised.  To establish an upper bound, global fossil fuel
use to the year 2030 was assumed to follow current fossil energy use
trends (average 4.3 percent increase per annum);^ energy supply
       C.E., Jr., H.E. Goeller, J.S. Olson, R.M.  Rotty, "Carbon
 Dioxide and Climate:  The Uncontrolled Experiment," American
 Scientist, Vol. 65, 1977, p. 310.
                                 176

-------
would grow somewhat slower in the United States, reaching 71 quads^
total (20 quads coal) by 1985; 107 quads total (39 quads coal) by
2000; and only 144 quads total (129 quads coal) by 2030.  To repre-
sent much lower growth in fossil energy use, another scenario was
devised which assumes that global fossil fuel energy use would grow
at 2 percent per year,^ with the U.S. growth rates the same as
those for the high growth case for 1985, slowing to 1.0 percent annu-
ally in 2000 (87 quads total, 30 quads coal) and to negative 0.8 per-
cent per annum in 2030 (45 quads total, 25 quads coal).'

     Each of these two scenarios was analyzed in the context of each
of two sets of scientific assumptions concerning mechanisms of the
global carbon cycle.  The first, or optimistic assumptions, are that
40 percent of C02 released by fossil fuel combustion remains in the
atmosphere; 2 gigatons (GT)^ of carbon per year are subtracted from
the atmosphere due to terrestrial uptake; and the lower limit of
possible C02~induced average temperature rise prevails.  The
second, or pessimistic assumptions, are that 60 percent of fossil
fuel CC>2 released remains in the atmosphere; 1.2 GT of carbon per
year (net) is added to the atmosphere because of deforestation; and
the upper limit of possible C02~induced average temperature rise
prevails.  Thus, four resulting combinations of energy growth rates
and scientific assumptions concerning C02 effects were analyzed.
Note that these scenarios do not correspond to the SEAS High and Low
Growth cases, which extend only to 2000.  In general, the SEAS
scenarios assume much greater total energy supply by 2000 (124 quads
versus 107 quads in the high growth cases, respectively) but agree
closely on coal supply in 2000.  (See Table B-5, Appendix B, for SEAS
scenario assumptions.)

     Data Sources and Quality

     Uncertainty characterizes present scientific understanding of
the global carbon cycle and possible temperature changes from
increased atmospheric C02«  The major question concerns our lack of
understanding of the ultimate fate of the approximately 40 percent of
the C02 that does not remain in the atmosphere.  In an attempt to
     quad = 1 quadrillion Btu; 1 quad is the energy equivalent of
 more than 170 million barrels of crude oil.
6Baes, C.E., Jr., H.E. Goeller, J.S. Olson, R.M. Rotty, "Carbon
 Dioxide and Climate:  The Uncontrolled Experiment," American
 Scientist, Vol. 65,  1977, p. 319.
7Ibid.  Also, Battelle Columbus Laboratories and University of
 Michigan, First Year Report for Coal Technology Assessment Program,
 preliminary draft, prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection
 Agency, Contract #68-02-2622, N.D.
80ne gigaton = 109 metric tons = 1015g.

                                177

-------
reduce this uncertainty, research efforts are directed at identifying
the role of the oceans as a long term sink, and the role of plants in
absorbing or adding C02 to observed atmospheric levels.  Recent
evidence suggests that deforestation over the past 100 years has
added to observed atmospheric CC>2 levels.^

     Manabe and Wetherald's10 general circulation model is fre-
quently used for predicting average global temperature rise for a
given increase of C02 alone.  Yet simple assumptions in that model
and compounding factors complicate the relationship between increases
in atmospheric CC>2 and temperature change.  To account for possible
counteracting mechanisms, the temperature ranges presented here have
been biased on the optimistic (or low) side, as displayed in Table
5-1.

                              TABLE 5-1
               RANGE OF C02-1NDUCED TEMPERATURE RISE
                               (in °C)

                             Low Latitude               High Latitude
(0°-5°) Average
Atmospheric C02 Compared
to Preindustrial Levels
2x
4x
6x
Oa
0.8
1.9
2.8
Pa 0 P
2.4 1.5 2.9
4.8 2.9 5.8
6.0 4.1 7.5
(80°
0
3.6
7.5
9.0
-90°)
P
11
18
20
aO = optimistic; P = pessimistic.

Source:  Adapted from Markley, O.W., A.L. Webre, R.C. Carlson, and
B.R. Holt, Socio-political Impacts of Carbon Dioxide Buildup in the
Atmosphere Due to Fossil Fuel Combustion, prepared for U.S. Energy
Research and Development Administration, 1977, p. 35. Table revised
by R. Wetherald, R. Ramanthan, W.W. Kellogg, and J.M. Mitchell, Jr.
Further revised by D.O. Gates, Professor of Botany and Director of
Biological Field Station, University of Michigan, 1978.
 ^Stuiver, M., "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Carbon Reservoir
  Changes," Science, Vol. 199, 1978, pp. 253-258.  Also, Wilson,
  A.T., "Pioneer Agriculture Explosion and C02 Levels in the
  Atmosphere," Nature, Vol. 273, 1978, pp. 40-41.
10Manabe, S. and R.T. Wetherald, "The Effects of Doubling the C02
  Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model,"
  Journal of Atmospheric Science, Vol. 32, 1975, pp. 3-15.

                                  178

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     Future energy growth is conjectural as well.  This plenitude of
uncertain information, hence, offers only upper and lower bounds for
future C02~induced effects.  Current research efforts are aimed at
reducing these uncertainties.

     Major sources for information on carbon dioxide in the atmos-
phere are referenced throughout this section.  Of special value are
a recent symposium report, Carbon Dioxide, Climate, and Society;^
a National Academy of Sciences report, Studies in Geophysics;  Energy
and Climate; l^ ancj articles over the past few years in the journal
Science.

5.2.2  Control Options

     If C02 proves to be a pollutant of concern, control may be
desirable.  Controversy exists over whether present fossil fuel com-
bustion or deforestation is contributing most to observed atmospheric
C02 increases; however, projected annual growth rates in fossil
fuel use point to the combustion of hydrocarbons as the most impor-
tant area for future control.  At any rate, controlling fossil fuel
emissions or reversing deforestation might be exceptionally difficult
technically, economically, and socially.  It might be more feasible
(though still unlikely) to curtail fossil fuel use and to clear less
forest than to apply control technology.

     A marked difference between C02 and other pollutants is the
staggering amount of C02 generated, typically about 20 percent by
weight of fuel gas from coal-fired power plants.  This strongly
affects technological control efforts.  Carbon dioxide control stra-
tegies have only been explored in concept and may be classified
according to choice of fuels or energy technology, C02 capture,
C02 storage, or C02 conversion.

     Choice of Fuels or Energy Technology

     The amount of C02 formed during combustion is directly related
to the carbon content of the fuel.  Methane combustion emits about
half as much C02 as coal in producing the same amount of end-use
^Williams, J., ed., Carbon Dioxide, Climate, and Society, Pergamon
  Press, Oxford, 1978.
i 9     '       '
1^Geophysics Study Committee, National Research Council, Studies in
  Geophysics;  Energy and Climate, National Academy of Sciences,
  Washington, D.C., 1977.
                                 179

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energy, as is shown in Table 5-2.  Gasoline is intermediate.  Con-
siderable differences also exist in the amount of CC>2 emissions
among different technologies at a given level of end-use energy.
When systems extending from extraction to end use and their associa-
ted efficiencies are compared, furnace use is preferable to electric
heating (see Table 5-3).  Comparison of systems 6 and 8 in Table 5-3
shows that coal liquefaction for furnace use to provide space heating
releases about half as much CC»2 as does coal liquefaction to gener-
ate electricity for space heating.  In this comparison, both energy
systems (6 and 8) are directed to the same end use, and no control
technology is applied.
                              TABLE 5-2
              C02 EMISSIONS FROM VARIOUS FOSSIL FUELS

                                            C02 Emitted
        Fuel Type                         (in lb/106 Btu)
Gas
Methane
Propane
Butane
Liquid
Gasoline
Diesel
No. 6
Coal
Lignite
Sub-bituminous
Bituminous

115
139
143
161
167
170

215
215
212
Source:  Adapted from American Gas Association, "Carbon Dioxide Emis-
         sions from Fossil Fuel Combustion and from Coal Gasifica-
         tion," Energy Analysis, Arlington, Virginia, 1977, p. 5.

     In electricity generation, fluidized bed combustion, low-sulfur
coal, physically cleaned coal, and conventional boilers with lime-
stone scrubbing are all roughly equivalent in terms of C02 re-
leased, producing about 300 million metric tons of C02 per quad.

     Synthetic fuels for electricity generation have C02 emissions
about 30 percent higher than C02 emissions from direct coal combus-
tion.  Moreover, synfuels for furnace use to provide space heat
release less C02 than does direct coal combustion for electric
space heat (see systems 1 through 4 versus systems 7 and 8 in Table
5-3).  A recent report to the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ)
also addresses C02 emissions from synthetic fuels.  That report
indicates that synfuels for electricity generation emit slightly more

                                180

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                                                TABLE 5-3
                        COMPARISON  OF  TECHNOLOGY  SYSTEMS  PRODUCING
                               1  QUAD PER YEAR OF SPACE  HEATING
             Systems3>b
Without C02 Control
    Efficiencies0
Coal Consumed
(10l3g/year)
C02 Emitted
(1013g/year)
Electricity Generation

   Direct

     1.   Low sulfur  coal  (LSC)
         boiler
     2.   Physical  coal cleaning (PCC)
         with boiler
     3.   Fluidized bed
         Combustion  (FBC) boiler
     4.   Boiler with limestone
         scrubber

   Synfuels

     5.   Low Btu gasification
         with combined cycle
     6.   Liquefaction with
         boiler
0.37
0.9  (cleaning)
0.37 (boiler)

0.36

0.35
0.70  (gasification)
0.40  (combined  cycle)
0.625 (liquefaction)
0.37  (boiler)
     11

     13

     12

     12




     15

     18
     28

     31

     28

     29




     36

     44
   Furnace Use

     7.   High  Btu  gasification
     8.   Liquefaction  (assuming
         short  haul  in truck)
0.65  (gasification)
0.97  (pipeline)
0.64  (furnace)
0.625 (liquefaction)
1.0   (transportation)
0.60  (furnace)
                                                                          10
                                                                                           22
                                                                                           24
With C02 Control
     1.   Low-sulfur coal
         boiler  for electricity

     7.   High-Btu  gasification
         for  furnace use
0.27  (control  point)

0.62  (gasification -
       control  point)
0.97  (pipeline)
0.64  (furnace)
                              16
                                                                                           18
 Systems 1-6  assume electrical transmission efficiency at 0.912 and application efficiency  (not heat pump)  of
 0.98.
 Bituminous coal  feed assumed.
cEfficiency loss  assumptions for CO2 disposal have been included for the "with C02  controlled" systems.
 More C02 (dryweight, etc.) is produced than coal feed.  Increase reflects the higher molecular weight of C02
 over carbon,  the carbon content of the coal, and the high percentage of reacted carbon when coal is combusted.
theoretically 100 percent control is possible;  however, this figure represents optimistic  system reliability.
 All figures  have been rounded.

Source:   Personal communication, E. Hall,  Battelle Columbus Laboratory,  1978.
                                                    181

-------
than twice the amount of C0£ emitted by natural gas to produce  the
same end-use energy.

     C02 Capture

     Costs, efficiency penalties, and resistance to its application
may severely hamper, if not preclude, development of C02 control
technology.  The most likely control points for capturing C02 would
be the stacks of fossil fuel and industrial plants, because of  the
relatively high concentration of C02 in the stacks.  The process
most likely to be used for CC>2 capture appears to be aqueous potas-
sium carbonate scrubbing.  However, complete scrubbing could lower
ideal power plant efficiency from 37 percent to 30 percent (apart
from energy penalties for disposal) and double the capital cost for a
large power plant.1*

     Should atmospheric CC^-induced warming effects arise, central-
ized conversion facilities would be the most amenable to control.  A
comparison of systems 1 and 7 in Table 5-3, with and without control
technology, illustrates this point.  Without control technology, sys-
tem 7 is more efficient and therefore emits less CC>2 than system 1.
With control technology, however, system 1 emits less C02 because
of its amenability to control.  This comparison takes into account
the reduction of efficiency resulting from the application of control
technology, indicated by the increased coal input required to deliver
the same end-use energy.

     C02 Storage

     If vast amounts of CC^ need to be stored anywhere, the deep
ocean appears to be the most practical place.  The ocean, besides
its enormous capacity, already provides a natural permanent sink
13Woodwell, G.M.,  G.J. MacDonald, R. Revelle, and C.D. Keeling,
  "The Carbon Dioxide Problem:  Implications for Policy in the
  Management of Energy and Other Resources," report to the Council on
  Environmental Quality, July 1979.
  Albanese, A., and M. Steinberg, Environmental Control Technology
  for Atmospheric  Carbon Dioxide, BNL-50877, Brookhaven National
  Laboratory, Upton, New York, 1978, p. 7.   Also, Marchetti, C.,
  "Geo-Engineering and the C02 Problem," Climate Change, Vol. 1,
  1977, p. 61.   Also, Mudacchi,  C., P. Aremenante, and V. Cena, in J.
  Williams, ed., Carbon Dioxide, Climate, and Society, Pergamon
  Press, Oxford, 1978, p. 289.  Also, Steinberg, M.,  A.S. Albanese,
  and V. Dang,  "Environmental Control Technology for Carbon Dioxide,"
  presented at  the 71st American Institute of Chemical Engineers
  (AICHE) Annual Meeting, Miami, Florida, 1978, p. 29.
                               182

-------
for C02«  The long-term impacts of infusing CC>2 into the oceans,
however, are unknown.

     Disposal of captured CC>2 would require additional energy.  Up
to 10 percent of the output from a power plant might be required
to pump C02 captured from the flue gas to the ocean bottom,
further lowering ideal power plant efficiency to about 27 percent.
Thus, this strategy would only be practical for power plants near the
seacoast.

     CC>2 Conversion

     Reforestation, general fertilization of existing forests, and
flue gas C02 conversion using bacterial action or greenhouse envi-
ronments are possible additional control strategies.  Application of
such controls would be limited by requirements for nutrients, avail-
able land, and water.  These methods would be very expensive.

5.2.3  Trends

     To assess the need for C02 control, apart from efficacy of
control, more definitive information is needed in four areas:  the
mechanisms of the global carbon cycle, present and future CC>2
emissions, the impact of such emissions on ambient atmospheric CC^
levels, and the influence of ambient CC^ levels and other factors
on trends in worldwide temperature and other climate changes.

     Global Carbon Cycle

     Carbon is cycled among three main reservoirs or repositories:
terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic.  Whether the net flux (or
transfer of carbon) from each of these reservoirs is positive or neg-
ative determines whether each of the reservoirs is considered as a
source or a sink for CC^.  An additional reservoir, that of carbon
stored in fossil fuels and carbonates, can be treated as an exogenous
variable.  Human use of such stored carbon invariably results in
CC>2 emissions.  Figure 5-1 is a simplified representation of the
global carbon cycle with three additional subdivisions:  the ocean
pool divided into a surface layer, a thermocline (mixed), and a deep
(unmixed) layer; the land reservoir, split into biota and humus; and
the terrestrial-atmospheric fluxes arising from natural causes and
human activities.
 ^Albanese, A., Follow-up Report to EPA's Coal Technology Assess-
  ment CO? Forum, University of Michigan, December 1978.
                               183

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                                                 FOSSIL FUELS
                                                 5000 x 1015gC
                        ATMOSPHERE
                                             5to6x 1015gC
                        700 x 1015g C    /
                                     I
                                     t
                                     \
                                       40 to 60% of
                                       FOSSIL FUELS NET
               1. 2xl015 gC (?)
                  HUMAN ACTIVITY
                      2 x 1015g C (?)
           BIOTA
         800x 1015g
                                        SURFACE OCEAN
                                          "~ -     • -
                                         THERMOCLINE

                                           OCEAN    ~
  !• 1000-30000 x 1015gC
                                           OCEAN
                                           BOTTOM
40, 000 x
 1015gC
                    CARBON
                      FLUX
              * The fossM fuel growth Scenarios project this to rise to 46 x 10  g £
               in the year 2030 for the high growth case, or 12 x 1015 gC per year in
               2030 for the low growth case .
Source:  Carbon reservoir  estimates are from Woodwell, G.W. et al.,
         The  Carbon Dioxide Problem:  Implications for Policy in
         the  Management  of Energy and Other  Resources, A Report
         to The Council  on Environmental Quality,  July 1979.  For
         estimates  of  flux,  see text.

                             FIGURE 5-1
   SIMPLIFIED REPRESENTATION OF THE WORLD CARBON CYCLE
                                184

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     Emission Trends

     Natural Fluxes.  Natural sources of CC>2 emissions to the atmo-
sphere include plant respiration, humus decay, volcanic emissions,
weathering, and forest fires.  Natural sinks for atmospheric CC>2
include plant growth, sedimentation processes, land carbonates, peat
soils, and the oceans (subdivided into the surface, mixed, and deep
ocean, and including sedimentation and marine debris deposition pro-
cesses).  By far the largest reservoir for carbon is the ocean, fol-
lowed by the terrestrial reservoir and, distantly, the atmospheric
reservoir (see Figure 5-1).

     Estimates of the amount of flux between these reservoirs are
usually extrapolated from relatively small and heterogeneous samples,
and vary widely.  For example, the size of the terrestrial carbon
reservoir in humus alone has been estimated to be 55 GT carbon,*"
700 GT,17 1,450 GT,18 3,000 GT,19 to as much as 9,000 GT.20
The terrestrial reservoir is less well understood than the oceanic or
atmospheric reservoirs.  This disparity makes the estimate of fluxes
between reservoirs highly uncertain.  Those fluxes (except that aris-
ing from fossil fuel combustion) shown in Figure 5-1 should thus be
viewed cautiously.

     Fluxes Due to Human Activity.  It is difficult, if not impossi-
ble, to separate natural fluxes from those due to human activity.
Human activity creates C02 sources through industrial activity,
such as the making of cement or fertilizers, the use of fossil fuels
for energy, and deforestation.  Sinks for C02 may result from
reforestation, transforming wood products into structures; and, per-
haps secondarily, enhanced plant photosynthesis from the use of fer-
tilizers or, over the long term, elevated C02 levels.

     Burning fossil fuels releases C02 from organic carbon stored
over hundreds of millions of years.  Recent estimates suggest that
roughly 140 GT of carbon have been emitted to the atmosphere from
l°Whittaker, R.H., Communities and Ecosystems, 2nd ed., MacMillan
  Company, New York, 1975.
17Bolin, B., "The Carbon Cycle," Scientific American, Vol. 223,
  September 1970, p. 124.
18Schlesinger, W.H., "Carbon Balance in Terrestrial Detritus,"
  Annual Review of Ecology Systematics, Vol. 8, No. 73, 1977.  This
  article is a general review of the carbon balance in terrestrial
  detritus.
19Bohn, H.L., "Estimate of Organic Carbon in World Soils," Soil
  Science Society of America, Journal,   Vol. 40,  1976, pp. 468-470.
20Reiners, W.A., "Terrestrial Detritus and Carbon Cycle,"
  Brookhaven Symposium - Biology, Vol.  24, 1973,  pp. 303-327.

                                185

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fossil-fuel burning since the beginning of the Industrial Revolu-
tion.^  Between 40 GT and 120 GT of carbon have been emitted as a
result of deforestation and agriculture over this period, 2 though
the rate may have slowed in recent decades.  Of this amount, perhaps
70 GT of carbon have remained in the atmosphere.  The uncertainty
arises because of varying estimates of preindustrial C02 levels and
COo emission rates over the past 100 years.  The most important
point, however, is that human activity, especially the use of fossil
fuels, is increasingly adding (X>2 to an already imbalanced global
carbon cycle.

     Ambient C02 Trends

     Historical Trends.  Figure 5-2 shows historic trends in atmo-
spheric (X>2 increase over the past 100 years or so.  Note that
detailed monitoring of atmospheric C02 levels was not begun until
1958^3 on Mauna Loa in Hawaii, and now there are numerous such mon-
itoring stations, worldwide.  Preindustrial (c. 1860) C02 levels
are  commonly thought to have been about 290 ppm,2^ though recent
reports suggest levels as low as 268 to 270 ppm.2-'  From 1958 to
1968, observed annual atmospheric C02 increase averaged 0.75 ppm
and had exceeded  1 ppm by 1974.26  The present level of C02 in
the  atmosphere is 330 to 340 ppm, with the variation ascribed to
"pulses" in C02 uptake (Figure 5-2) corresponding to major plant
growing seasons.2'
2*Bolin, B., in J. Williams, ed. Carbon Dioxide, Climate, and
  Society,  Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1978.
22Ibid.
23Keeling,  C.D., R.B. Bacastow, A.E. Bainbridge, C.A. Ekdahl, P.R.
  Guenther, L.S. Waterman, J.F.S. Chin, "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
  Variations at the South Pole," Tellus, Vol. 28,  1976, p. 538.
2^Siegenthaler, U. and H. Oeschger,  "Predicting Future Atmospheric
  Carbon Dioxide Levels," Science, Vol. 199, January 27,  1978, p.
  388.  Also,  Bray, J.R., "An Analysis of  the Possible Recent Change
  in Atmospheric Carbon  Dioxide Concentration," Tellus, Vol. 11,
  1959, p.  220.
25Keeling,  C.D., R.B. Bacastow, A.E. Bainbridge, C.A. Ekdahl, P.R.
  Guenther, L.S. Waterman, and J.F.S. Chin,  "Atmospheric  Carbon
  Dioxide  Variations at  the  South Pole," Tellus, Vol. 28,  1976,
  p.  538.
26Ibid.
270eschger, H. and U. Siegenthaler,  in J.  Williams, ed. ,  Carbon
  Dioxide,  Climate, and  Society,  Pergamon  Press, Oxford,  1978, pp.
  53-54.   The  authors cite vegetational cycles  as  the probable major
  cause in observed annual atmospheric C02 oscillations,  hemispher-
  ical cycles  due  to  temperature-induced variations  in  ocean and  sea
  ice, C02 partial pressure; they also note season cycles in winter
  heating.
                                '186

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2
O
H
H
Z
 
-------
     Recent energy growth rates have averaged 4.3 percent annu-
ally.    The current annual rate of fossil fuel CC>2 emissions is
approximately 5-6 GT of carbon, or about 2 ppm of equivalent atmos-
pheric concentration. *  Thus, roughly 50 percent of known fossil
fuel release of CC>2 is not accounted for in observed atmospheric
levels.  It is chiefly this question of the "missing" C02 that has
led to the necessity of considering the two widely differing pessi-
mistic and optimistic assumptions for the mechanism of the global
carbon cycle noted previously.  If CC>2 emissions due to deforesta-
tion and other industrial activities are factored in, the percentage
of "missing" CC>2 increases still more.  For example, Stuiver main-
tains that about 1.2 GT of carbon per year was added to the atmos-
phere because of deforestation between 1850 and 1950, with smaller
                                    op)              '
increases over the past few decades.JU  Cement production may add
another 2 percent to the CC^ flux attributable to human activity.
The real implication of these figures may be that the ocean is a more
effective sink for the "missing" C02 than had been thought.

     Trends in Future CC>2 Levels

     Fossil fuel C02 release will likely be the largest future con-
tributor to increased levels of atmospheric CC>2.  As displayed in
Figure 5-3, for the high energy supply scenario described in Section
5.2.1, C02 release from fossil fuel combustion is projected to
reach 8.5, 14, and 46 GT per year of carbon equivalent in the years
1985, 2000, and 2030.  (Note that these figures are for C02 emit-
ted, not what remains in the atmosphere.)  Under the low energy use
assumption, these figures are 6, 8, and 12 GT of carbon, respec-
tively.

     Two trends are common to both scenarios.  First, over the next
50 years, the U.S. fossil fuel contribution to world C02 release is
projected to decrease from the present 28 percent to only 8 percent
of total CC>2 release by the year 2030.  This changing percentage in
contribution reflects a slowdown in U.S. energy growth rates in
comparison to those of the rest of the world, especially in develop-
ing countries.  Second, the contribution from coal increases to 40 to
60 percent of total fossil fuel C02 release by the year 2030.
28Baes, C.E., Jr., H.E. Goeller, J.S. Olson, and R.M. Rotty,
  "Carbon Dioxide and Climate:  The Uncontrolled Experiment,"
  American Scientist, Vol. 65, 1977, p. 310.
29Keeling, C.D., R.B. Bacastow, A.E. Bainbridge, C. A. Ekdahl,
  P.R. Guenther, L.S. Waterman, J.F.S. Chin, "Atmospheric Carbon
  Dioxide Variations at the South Pole," Tellus, Vol. 28, 1976,
  p. 538.
                                188

-------
   W
   c«
   <
   fcd
   O
   oa
   erf
      46
      40
      30
u  20
      10
                  COAL
I             GLOBAL
             U.S.
           ^^^^^	^^^^^B	f^f^t
                                  TOTAL OF ALL
                                  FOSSIL FUELS
        1975   1985  2000   2030
                YEAR
40
                                                      30
                                                         20
                                                      10
                                  1975   1985  2000  2030
                                          YEAR
Source:
      Chen,  K.,  R.C.  Winter,  and M.K. Bergman, "C02 from Fossil
      Fuels:   Adapting to  Uncertainty," submitted for publication.
      Used with
              U.S. AND GLOBAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO
            TOTAL FOSSIL FUEL-INDUCED CO2 RELEASE
                              189

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     The curves in Figure  5-4 were  obtained by applying the pessi-
mistic and optimistic assumptions concerning the global carbon cycle
to the CC>2 emission levels of the two  scenarios noted above.  In
only one of the four cases in Figure 5-4, the Low Growth Optimistic,
would there be less than a doubling of atmospheric C02 levels by
the year 2050.  In the worst case,  the High Growth Pessimistic,
atmospheric C02 levels may increase nearly sixfold over the next
100 years.
         z
         o
         f^
         8
         g
         £
         C/3
              6.0
              5.0
         z  z „ „
         w  o 4.0
              3.0
         y  9
              1.0
   HIGH GROWTH
    PESSIMISTIC
                                                  HIGH GROWTH
                                                   OPTIMISTIC
   LOW GROWTH
    PESSIMISTIC

   LOW GROWTH
    OPTIMISTIC
                 1970     2000         2040
                               YEAR
2080
                             FIGURE 5-4
         ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS-
                           RANGE ANALYSIS
                                190

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     Atmospheric C02 levels are  increasing, and  continued  increases
could raise the average temperature of the earth's surface.•*!   How-
ever, recent rises in atmospheric C02 levels have not been accom-
panied by observed rises in the  earth's surface  temperature.  The
magnitude of future increase, although highly uncertain, is expected
to be greater at higher latitudes and less at the equator. ^
Available evidence also suggests that net global precipitation  tends
to increase as average temperatures rise.    Elevated temperatures
O I
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Coal Technology Assessment:
  First Year Report, in press.  Also, Manabe, S. and R.T. Wetherald,
  "The Effects of Doubling the CC>2 Concentration on the Climate of
  a General Circulation Model," Journal of Atmospheric Science, Vol.
  32, 1975, p. 3.  Personal communication, D. Gates, 1979.  Bolin,
  B., "The General Circulation of. the Atmosphere and the Distribution
  of Climatic Zones," Annual Review of Energy, Vol. 2, 1977, pp.
  202-218.  Also, Keeling, C.D. and R.B. Bacastow, "Impact of
  Industrial Gases on Climate," Studies in Geophysics;  Energy and
  Climate, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C., 1977, p.
  74.  Mercer, J.H., "West Antarctic Ice Sheet and CC^ Greenhouse
  Effect:  A Threat of Disaster," Nature, Vol. 271, 1978, p. 321.
  Schneider, S.H., "On the Carbon Dioxide Climate Confusion," Journal
  of Atmospheric Science, Vol. 32, 1975.  Schneider, reviewing a
  number of different models, indicates a range of 1.5°C-3.5°C for
  average temperature rise under conditions of doubled atmospheric
  C02.
32Manabe, S. and R.T. Wetherald, "The Effects of Doubling the C02
  Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model," Jour-
  nal of Atmospheric Science, Vol. 32, 1975, p. 3-15.  Personal
  communication, D. Gates, Professor of Botany and Director of
  Biological Field Station, University of Michigan, 1979.  Also:
  Mercer, J.H. , "West Antarctic Ice Sheet and CC>2 Greenhouse
  Effect:  A Threat of Disaster," Nature, Vol. 271, 1978, p. 321.
  Schneider, S.H., "On the Carbon Dioxide Climate Confusion," Journal
  of Atmospheric Science, Vol. 32, 1975.
33Manabe, S. and R.T. Wetherald, "The Effects of Doubling the C02
  Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model,"
  Journal of Atmospheric Science, Vol. 32, 1975, p. 3.  Personal
  communication, D. Gates, 1979.  Also:  Kellogg, W.W., in J.
  Gribbin, ed., Climatic Change, Cambridge University Press,
  Cambridge, 1978.
                                191

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may also cause changes in wind and ocean current patterns-^ and
shifts in regional precipitation.
                                                                 O £
     According to the general circulation model cited previously,
a doubling of atmospheric CC>2 concentration leads to a temperature
increase of approximately 2.5°C.  Schneider, reviewing a number of
different models, indicates a range of 1.5°C-3.0°C average tempera-
ture rise under conditions of doubled atmospheric CC^.    Table
5-1 presents temperature ranges for low, mid, and high latitudes for
various doublings of atmospheric C02 levels.  These temperature
figures represent the best estimates of experts in the field,3°
with a slight bias on the conservative side as noted previously.

     Many factors compound the temperature effects from CC>2 alone.
Release of other gases, notably nitrous oxide and aerosols, including
chlorofluoromethanes, may enhance the "greenhouse effect."  As global
temperature increases, the earth's albedo may change because of snow
and ice melt.  Also, with rising temperature, the air's water-
carrying capacity increases, resulting in more cloud cover and uncer-
tain temperature feedbacks.  Moreover, particles from fossil fuel
combustion may screen out sunlight (thus changing albedo), perhaps
negating to some extent any warming trends due to CC^.  Our under-
standing of these compounding factors is far from precise at present.
         B., "The General Circulation of the Atmosphere and the
  Distribution of Climatic Zones," Annual Review of Energy, Vol.  2,
  1977, pp. 204.  Also, Keeling, C.D. and R.B. Bacastow, "Impact  of
  Industrial Gases on Climate," Studies in Geophysics;  Energy and
  Climate, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, B.C., 1977,
  p. 74.
35Kellogg, W.W., in J. Gribbin, ed., Climatic Change, Cambridge
  University Press, Cambridge, 1978.
36Manabe, S. and R.T. Wetherald, "The Effects of Doubling the C02
  Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model,"
  Journal of Atmospheric Science, Vol. 32, 1975, p. 3-15.
37Schneider, S.H., "On the Carbon Dioxide Climate Confusion,"
  Journal of Atmospheric Science, Vol. 2, 1975.
38Markley, O.W., A.L. Webre, R.C. Carlson, B.R. Holt, Sociopoliti-
  cal  Impacts of Carbon Dioxide Buildup in the Atmosphere Due to  Fos-
  sil  Fuel Combustion, discussion draft, prepared for U.S. Energy Re-
  search and Development Administration, 1977, p. 35.  Table revised
  by R. Wetherald, R. Ramanthan, W.W. Kellogg, and J.M. Mitchell,
  Jr.   Further revised by D.O. Gates, 1978, by extending the lower
  range of the optimistic estimates.


                                192

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     The global mean  temperature rose about 0.6°C from the mid-1800s
to  1940, and has since fallen about  0.3°C.-^  This recent cooling
trend may be masking  any C02~induced temperature rise.  These vari-
ations may be natural or may be due  to previously discussed factors
such as particulates  or cloud cover.

     Figure 5-5 translates the global atmospheric C02 increases
shown in Figure 5-4 to temperature changes over time (using the
midlatitude temperature estimates from Table 5-1).  In contrast to
Figure 5-4, in which  considerable overlap is seen between optimistic
and pessimistic projections of CC^ concentration, the distribution
of curves in Figure 5-5 is more consistent, with a marked separation
between optimistic and pessimistic projections.  The amount of temp-
erature rise in 1975  is uncertain, as is reflected in the different
"starting points" for the optimistic and pessimistic curves in Figure
5-5.  Although the earth's temperature in 1975 was measured and
known, the effects of CC>2 alone may have been offset by cooling
trends, as has been discussed.  The optimistic curves show an initial
negative slope, reflecting the possibility of terrestrial plant
uptake acting as a C02 sink before the effect is overwhelmed by the
CC>2 release from increasing fossil fuel use.

     A few conclusions may be drawn from Figure 5-5.  First, uncer-
tainty about the global C02 problem is so extensive that at one
extreme, C02 effects apparently will become very severe by 2030;
while at the other extreme, C02 may not be a problem of concern.
Second, if the world follows the high fossil fuel use scenario, a 2°C
average temperature rise (closer to 10°C near the polar regions)
could occur within 75 years, even with consistently optimistic
assumptions.   And finally, with pessimistic assumptions, average
global temperature rise could exceed 2°C by the year 2030, even if
the world follows the low energy use path.
39Mitchell,  J.M.,  Jr., "Natural Breakdown of the Present Inter-
  glacial and its  Possible Intervention by Human Activities,"
  Quaternary Research, Vol.  2, 1972, p. 436.  Also,  W.S. Broecker,
  "Climatic  Change:   Are We  On the Brink of a Pronounced Global
  Warming?"  Science,  Vol. 189, 1975, p. 462.
                               193

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         8.0

         7.0

         6.0


         5.0


     <  4.0

         3.0

         2.0
o
H
SYSTEM
"NOISE"
    1.0

     0
           1980
                2020  2040
                  YEAR

               FIGURE 5-5
                               HIGH GROWTH
                                PESSIMISTIC
                                HIGH GROWTH
                                PESSIMISTIC
                                WITH CONTROL
                                LOW GROWTH
                                PESSIMISTIC
                                HIGH GROWTH
                                 OPTIMISTIC
   LOW GROWTH
    OPTIMISTIC
2080
         TEMPERATURE RANGE ANALYSIS
                      194

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5.2.4  Impacts and Implications

     Agriculture

     Regional shifts in temperature and precipitation could have
great impacts on agriculture.  For example, under warmer or dryer
conditions, decreased yields have been noted for widely used strains
of corn and rice, but increased yields for wheat. ^  Productivity
increases with increased atmospheric C(>2 concentrations.  There-
fore, moderate increases in CC>2 could be beneficial, on balance, to
agricultural productivity.  Over the long term, regional climatic
shifts may require development of new crop strains or use of differ-
ent agricultural management practices.  Such shifts could change the
relative distribution of major world food supply regions.  Certain
areas that could conceivably benefit from CC^-induced climatic
effects may possess less fertile soils and lack the infrastructure
necessary for large-scale agricultural production.  The combination
of these factors could lead to disrupted international food markets,
food shortages, or rationing.  Alternatively, over the long term, a
wetter and warmer climate could mean net global increases in agricul-
tural yield.

     Even over the short term, climatic transition can affect the
fragile global food supply network; for example, in 1971 and 1972,
temperatures deviated as much as 0.8°C below normal in the Northern
Hemisphere.    Severe monsoons, followed by drought, led to a dis-
appointing rice crop in Southeast Asia; the Soviet wheat crop was
devastated by cold and low precipitation; drought continued in North
Central Africa; crop yields were below normal in India; and anchovy
fisheries failed off the coast of Peru.  Famine was commonplace in
India and Africa, and food prices rose sharply in the United
States.42

     Hydrology

     Changes in regional hydrology, as in the water-limited western
United States, and rising sea levels due to polar ice melt are pos-
sible impacts of increased atmospheric CC^.  Shoreline development,
recreation, agriculture, water-intensive energy and industrial facil-
ities, and resident populations could be affected.  Areas dependent
40Bach, W., in J. Williams, ed., Carbon Dioxide, Climate, and
  Society, Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1978, pp. 153-158.
^Bolin, B., "The General Circulation of the Atmosphere and the
  Distribution of Climatic Zones," Annual Review of Energy, Vol. 2,
  1977, p. 203.  See also Figure 5-Ti
42Shapley, D., "Will Fertilizers Harm Ozone as Much as SST?",
  Science, Vol. 195, 1977, p. 377.  Also, W. Bach, in J. Williams,
  ed. , Carbon Dioxide, Climate, and Society, Pergamon Press, Oxford,
  1978, p. 161.
                                195

-------
on spring stream runoff for yearly water supplies would be particu-
larly susceptible to warmer climates; under appropriate conditions,
impacts could result within a few years.  Sea-level rises would occur
over a longer term.  Mercer notes that the unique characteristics of
the West Antarctic ice sheet make it more vulnerable to oceanic and
atmospheric warming than other ice sheets.^3  Complete melting or
the break-off of the West Antarctic ice sheet alone could cause a
5-meter sea level rise for the United States, displace some 11 mil-
lion people, affect $110 billion of property, and threaten as many as
10 nuclear reactors.

     Possibility of Thresholds in the Global Carbon Balance

     Shorter term temperature rises may be of grave concern if
thresholds exist in the global carbon balance.  For example, in the
late Mesozoic Era, deep oceanic waters may have been triggered into
releasing vast amounts of CC^ into the atmosphere in a positive
feedback between climatic warming and CC>2 expulsion.^  it has
also been suggested that a minor percentage shift in carbon held
in terrestrial debris could result in large releases of COo.^
The possibility that relatively small temperature changes may create
positive feedback effects dictates caution in projecting time hori-
zons for potential CC>2 impacts.

     Sociopolitical Impacts

     These possible agricultural and biophysical impacts could create
profound consequences for humanity.   Famine, political dissension,
mass population migration, and shifting world power balances are only
a few of the possible consequences.   If CC^-induced climatic
changes were to occur, a global challenge of unprecendented scale
would arise.

     No single country alone can, by abstention from fossil fuel use,
keep global CC>2 effects within nonconsequential limits if the rest
of the world follows the high energy use scenario.   The most far-
ranging implication of C02-induced effects may be the need for the
global community to learn to live with a warmer climate.
^Mercer, J.H., "West Antarctic Ice Sheet and CC^ Greenhouse
  Effect," Nature, Vol. 271, 1978, p. 321.
^Schneider, S.H. and K. Chen, American Association for Advancement
  of Science Meeting, as reported in Technology Review, March and
  April 1979, p. 82.
'"McLean, D.M. , "A Terminal Mesozoic Greenhouse:  Lessons From the
  Past," Science, Vol. 201, 1978, p. 405.
^ Schlesinger, W.H., "Carbon Balance in Terrestrial Detritus,"
  Annual Review of Ecology Systematics, Vol. 8, 1977, p. 75.

                                 196

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5.3  ACID DEPOSITION

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 5.3

o  Nitrogen and sulfur oxides are unstable in the troposphere and
   form compounds which can increase acidity of rain water and sur-
   face water on continental scales.

o  Acid deposition has become a problem in both North America and
   in Europe.  Surface deposits from precipitation (rain or snow),
   dry deposition (gases or particulates), and special events (dews,
   fogs, frosts, etc.) are becoming more  acidic both in time and
   space.

o  At present, sulfur and nitrogen compounds are the main contribu-
   tors to the acid deposition problem.   Sulfur emissions are ex-
   pected to level out throughout the 1980s, while nitrogen emis-
   sions continue to increase; thus, the  nitrogen species should
   become more significant in total contribution to the problem.

o  Acid deposition has had substantial adverse effects on the envi-
   ronment:  acidification of lakes, rivers, and ground waters, with
   resultant damage to the aquatic ecosystem; acidification and
   demineralization of soils; reduction of forest productivity; dam-
   age to crops; and deterioration of materials.  These effects may
   be cumulative or result from peak acidity episodes.  Prediction
   of the distribution or intensity of acid rain remains outside
   current modeling capabilities.

5.3.1  Problem Identification and Regulatory Background

     Acid deposition is a major environmental problem on both sides
of the Atlantic Ocean.  First noticed and studied in the Scandinavian
countries and in Canada, acid deposition has now been documented in
this country, first in the Northeast and now, apparently through much
of the United States east of the Mississippi.  Increasing acidic
deposition has already caused measurable damage to aquatic ecosystems
and has the potential for longer term injury to forest ecosystems.
In addition, acidic deposition is contributing to the corrosion of
materials,  degradation of sensitive soils, and damage to agricultural
crops.  Acid deposition was recently cited as a major regional
environmental problem by President Carter.^
      President's message to Congress on 2 August 1979 recommended
  a 10-year comprehensive Federal Acid Rain Assessment Program.  This
  program is managed by an Acid Rain Coordination Committee, with the
  Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Agricul-
  ture cochairing this committee, and the Council on Environmental
  Quality serving as executive secretary.

                                 197

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     This discussion concentrates on the precipitation component of
the acid deposition problem, for this area is the best understood and
most intensely studied today.  It is universally agreed that the dry
deposition component (particulate sedimentation/impaction and/or
gaseous absorption) is a significant contributor to the overall depo-
sition of acidic materials.  Other events such as dews, frosts, and
fogs also contribute to the total deposition.  Both dry deposition
and special acidic events need to be studied, immediately and inten-
sively, to determine their overall contribution to the total acid
deposition problem.

     By definition, a neutral water sample would register a pH of 7.
However, in the atmosphere, rain water naturally registers a pH of
5.65, because of an equilibrium reached with ambient concentrations
of carbon dioxide present in the atmosphere.  Therefore, precipita-
tion that registers a pH below 5.65 is defined as acidic.

     Currently, pH values in the low 4s are being recorded in most of
northern Europe, the northeastern United States, and southeastern
Canada; these areas are considered to have the greatest acidity prob-
lem.  In addition, pH values much lower than these are being observed
during individual storms.  The main acidity contributors are the
following substances:^"

     Sulfur compounds:     S02, S03=, S0^=, HSO^~, H2S04

     Nitrogen compounds:   Nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide
                           (N02), N02~, N03~, HN03, NH4+


     Chlorine compounds :   HC1

     Others:               Weak acids (e.g., organic acids,
                           1^03); Bronsted acids (e.g.,
                           dissolved Fe3+,
The precipitation acidity seen today primarily results from the gase
ous products of combustion, S02> NOX (NO and N02), being oxi-
dized to ^SO^ and HN03, respectively, within the atmosphere
and ultimately being deposited on the land or surface waters by pre-
cipitation  (Figure 5-6).
^^Whelpdale, D.M., Proceedings from the Workshop on Ecological
  Effects of Acid Precipitation, EPRI SOA-77-403, Electric Power
  Research Institute, Palo Alto, California, 1978.
                                198

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                        OXID/VTION
                      S02 V-Y H2S04
  .'•xt^A1 WET AND DRY
'••''••'••'''-'       ION
                     ••'••'••.'••>.\'''-.' DEPOSITION
   en
   Q
INDUSTRIALIZED
    AREA
                       ;GROUND
                        WATER
                                           I-  AGRICULTURAL LAND
                                                       MAN
                                   DRINKING WATER
                           FIGURE 5-6
      FORMATION AND DEPOSITION OF ACIDIC COMPONENTS
                             199

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     No U.S. environmental regulations now directly address the acid
precipitation problem.  A criteria document on particulates and sul-
fur oxides, currently being updated by EPA's Environmental Criteria
and Assessment Office (ECAO), will contain a chapter on acid precipi-
tation clearly marking it as a current major concern.

     On the international level, the signing of the Convention on
Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution by member countries in Geneva
during the 13-16 November 1979 meeting of the U.N. Economic Commis-
sion for Europe's High Level Meeting on Protection of the Environment
is a significant step toward recognizing the problem of acid rain and
its precursors.  Article 2 of the treaty establishes the fundamental
principle that the parties "shall endeavor to limit and, as far as
possible, gradually reduce and prevent air pollution including long-
range transboundary air pollution."  Essentially, the treaty is
directed toward solving the acid deposition problem.

     Also, under annual written agreement, EPA is continuing to
process and summarize sulfur dioxide data collected worldwide by
urban air quality monitoring stations in 43 countries and regions.
This EPA effort is part of the U.S. contribution to the Global Envi-
ronmental Monitoring System (GEMS) of the UN's Earthwatch program.
In addition, in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Devel-
opment, EPA expects to continue cooperative research efforts on SOX
and NOX international pollution problems.

     To assess the potential magnitude of the acid precipitation
problem, a strong national monitoring network must be established and
maintained for a long period of time (10 to 20 years).  This will
involve the collection and chemical analyses of precipitation sam-
ples, with all sites required to follow a stringent quality control/
assurance procedure in the collection, handling, storage, and analy-
sis of the samples.  EPA is in the early stages of establishing this
network.

     Along with the monitoring and measuring described above, a total
acid deposition research program will include study of atmospheric
processes and impacts.  Much needs to be learned about chemical
transformation processes, transport of the acidic components, and
mechanisms of deposition.  When these areas of knowledge are inte-
grated, acid deposition models can be designed.  Knowledge of agri-
cultural effects; impacts on forest systems, watersheds, and aquatic
systems; structural materials; and impact on drinking water supplies
is limited.  Emphasis will be placed on gaining understanding about
these potentially impacted areas.
                                200

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5.3.2  Emission Trends

     The emission trends of the two chief contributors to acid pre-
cipitation—SOX and NOX—are the focus of this discussion.  Ambi-
ent SOX and NOX levels result from both natural sources and human
activities.  The magnitude of SOX and NOX emissions "from natural
sources is uncertain.  Therefore, any correlations made between pre-
cipitation concentrations and emissions from industrial sources must
be considered as relative.

     During the late 1950s, sulfates were the main contributors to
precipitation acidity in the northeastern United States.  Since that
time, nitrates have contributed increasingly to acidity, and in the
early 1970s accounted for 30 to 35 percent of the acidity.  Figures
5-7 and 5-8 are graphs of projected SC>2 and NOX emissions from
1975 through 1990.  These projections are based on the Energy Infor-
mation Administration's Series C energy projections, which posit a
total energy supply of 111 quads by 1990, of which coal would con-
tribute 25 percent, crude oil 16 percent, and natural gas 15 percent.
This is generally consistent with High Growth assumptions used else-
where in this report:  124 quads total supply by 2000, 44 quads of
which would be coal, 44 quads oil, and 18 quads gas.  As the curves
show, SOX emissions are expected to flatten out during this period,
while NOX emissions are expected to continue their much steeper
increases.  The emission projections in Figure 5-8 indicate that
nitrogen compounds will continue to increase their contribution to
overall precipitation acidity.

5.3.3  Acid Precipitation Trends

     The first historical reports of acid precipitation were recorded
in the early 1900s in the industrial town of Leeds, England, where pH
measurements of 3.2 were found.^"  Scientific interest was not
widely stimulated, however, until pH values of 3.5 were recorded in
the Scandinavian region in the early 1950s.50  The problem of acid
precipitation in the United States did not really become apparent
until systematic biogeochemical cycling studies were initiated at
Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, in the early 1960s;
          H.B., J.A. Lopez, and J.M. Denio, "Chemical Composition
  of Acid Precipitation in Central Texas," Water, Air and Soil
  Pollution, Vol. 6, 1976, pp. 351-359.
5°Barrett, E. and G. Brodin, "The Acidity of Scandinavian
  Precipitation," Tellus, Vol. 7, 1955, p. 251-257.
                                 201

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    30
    20
 CO
 §
 H
vO
 O
  CN
 O
          1975
                  TOTAL
                                                ELECTRIC UTILITIES
                                                NON-ENERGY
                                                OTHER ENERGY ACTIVITIES
                                                TRANSPORTATION
1985
1990
                       YEAR
      Source:   SEAS Series C projections, March 1979.
                             FIGURES-?
           PROJECTIONS OF SO2 EMISSIONS BY MAJOR SOURCE
                        CATEGORIES 1975-1990
                                202

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                      OTHER ENERGY ACTIVITIES
                          NON-ENERGY ACTIVITIES
                                                       TOTAL
                                                       ELECTRIC UTILITIES
                                                      TRANSPORTATION


                                                     INDUSTRIAL/
                                                    RESIDENTIAL/COMMERCIAL
               1975
1985
1990
                               YEAR
Source:   SEAS Projections Based  on EIA Series C Forecasts, March 1979.

                            FIGURE 5-8
                 PROJECTIONS OF NOX EMISSIONS,
             BY MAJOR SOURCE CATEGORIES, 1975-1990
                              203

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measurements there revealed strongly acidic precipitation with pH in
the low 4s.-'I

     Figures 5-9 and 5-10 delineate relative changes that have
occurred in average acidity in precipitation in Scandinavia and the
United States.  In Scandinavia in 1957, precipitation pH averaged
about 5 in the southern regions to about 6 in the northern regions;
years later (1970), precipitation acidity had increased signifi-
cantly, with an average pH of 4.5 being recorded over all the south-
ern areas.  Figure 5-9 presents data from Scandinavian stations that
have collected continuous monthly precipitation samples throughout
this period.  The acidic precipitation in Scandinavia is generally
believed to result from pollutants transported from the highly
industrialized areas of western Europe.

     Unlike the Scandinavian network, precipitation pH measurements
in the United States have been collected only for limited periods of
time (typically 1 to 2 years) and usually in a limited geographical
area (typically only a single point or a few points, in one or two
states).

     Figure 5-10 was assembled from fragmentary sets of precipitation
chemistry data collected in the United States and is an attempt to
display relative changes in acidity in the eastern United States
between the mid-1950s and the early 1970s.  In 1955 and 1956, pre-
cipitation pH in a large portion of the eastern United States was
below the atmospheric equilibrium value of 5.65, with the lowest pH
values generally found in zones where sulfur emissions were highest—
parts of Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New York, and most of New
England.  By 1973, however, the area with an average pH below 4.5
included most of the area east of the Mississippi River and extended
northward into eastern Canada.  In addition, individual rainstorms •
with pH values below 2 have been recorded in West Virginia, and
values in the 2s and 3s have been registered in areas hundreds of
kilometers from major emission sources.

5.3.4  Effects, Impacts, and Implications

     A growing body of evidence suggests that acidic precipitation
may have substantial adverse effects on the environment.  Such
effects include acidification of lakes, rivers, and ground waters,
with resultant damage to fish and other components of aquatic ecosys-
tems; acidification and dimineralization of soils; reduction of for-
est productivity; damage to crops; and deterioration of man-made
-'•'•Likens, G.E., F.H. Borman, and N. Johnson, "Acid Rain,"
  Environment, Vol. 14, 1972, pp. 33-40.
                                 204

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AVERAGE PH FROM 12 MONTHLY SAMPLES

        1957
 Source:  Adapted from Likens, G.E., "Acid Precipitation," Chemical
         and Engineering News, Vol. 54,  November 22, 1976, p.  31.
         Used with permission.


                            FIGURE 5-9
         ACIDITY OF PRECIPITATION IN SCANDINAVIA DURING
                     THE PAST TWO DECADES
                              205

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              1955-1956
1972-1973
•45.60
   AVERAGE PH OF PRECIPITATION         	       ^ ^ 5.00

Source:   Adapted from  Likens, G.E.,  "Acid Precipitation," Chemical
         and Engineering News, Vol.  54, November 22,  1976, p. 31.
         TJoed with permission.
                            FIGURE 5-10
                  ACIDITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER
                   THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
                               206

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materials.  These effects may be cumulative or may result from peak
acidity episodes'.-*2  Uncertainties and insufficient knowledge in
each of these areas point up the need for continued study of all
potentially impacted systems.

     Aquatic Ecosystems

     Freshwater bodies in much of eastern North America and northern
Europe, which today lie within and adjacent to the areas of most acid
precipitation, are threatened by the continual deposition and further
expansion of acid precipitation.  Most of these bodies of water are
in regions underlain by carbonate-poor granitic rock and are poorly
buffered and vulnerable to acid inputs.-^  The increasing acidity
of lakes in North America and Europe has been documented; the most
tangible result is the decline in fish populations.-^  Figure 5-11
shows the frequency distribution of pH in New York State lakes be-
tween the 1930s and 1970s.  Figure 5-12 shows the resultant fish
population present with varying lake pHs.  Note that as the pH drops
below 5, the fish populations rapidly diminish.

     Other evidence indicates that not only are fish affected by
acidification, but the balance of the many life forms in the aquatic
ecosystem are also affected.  The number of invertebrates decreases,
and the rate of decomposition of organic matter slows, as bacteria
become less dominant in relation to fungi.  Some observers also be-
lieve that the slower decomposition of organic matter and the in-
crease in various species of algae and fungi on lake bottoms together
reduce the cycling of nutrients and lead to a depletion of nutrients
and decreased biomass productivity .->->

     Acid precipitation causes other changes in lake-water chemis-
try.   Elevated concentrations of heavy metals have frequently been
observed in acidified lakes.  These higher concentrations may result
from either direct atmospheric deposition or from the increased solu-
bility of sediments found in acidic lakes.  These additional heavy
-*2Glass, N.R. , G.E. Likens, and L.S. Dochinger, "The Ecological
  Effects of Atmospheric Deposition," in U.S. Environmental Protec-
  tion Agency, Energy/Environment III, EPA-600/9-78-002, 1978,
  pp. 113-139.
s ~\
-^Galloway, J.N. and E.B. Cowling, "The Effects of Precipitation on
  Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems:  A Proposed Precipitation
  Chemistry Network," J. Air Pollution Control Association, Vol. 28,
  March 1978, pp. 229-235.
-* Likens, G.E. , "Acid Precipitation," Chemical and Engineering
  News, Nov. 22, 1976, pp. 29-44.
55Ibid.
                                  207

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                                                     25
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                                             H7
Source:  Adapted from Schofield, C.L., "Acid Precipitation Effects on Fish"
       Ambio, Vol. 5,  1976, pp. 228-230. Used with permission.
                      FIGURE 5-12
      DISTRIBUTION OF pH AND FISH POPULATION STATUS
             IN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN LAKES
               DURING THE SUMMER OF 1975
                          209

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metals may represent a major physiological stress to various aquatic
organisms.->6

     The concern about the deposition of heavy metals, and also
organic chemicals and nutrients, has been elevated by a pilot assess-
ment of ambient conditions conducted by EPA's Office of Water and
Waste Management.  That pilot study found high levels of metals in
surface waters in several "pristine" areas.   Both direct deposition
of metals from the atmosphere and mobilization of metals by acidity
are possible causes.  Further discussion may be found in Sections
4.7.4 and 6.2.8.

     Terrestrial Ecosystems

     There are indications that acidic deposition may be leading to a
decline in the rate of forest growth in southern Scandinavia and in
the northeastern United States.^  -phe forest ecosystem is very
complex.  Different tree species have various pathways by which pre-
cipitation affects them.  For example, the different canopy covers
that forests present affect the quantity and quality of acidic com-
ponents that eventually reach the forest floor."  This problem
needs further study to be better understood.

     In terms of agricultural yields, the acidic depositional phenom-
enon may have serious economic ramifications.  Acidity can impact
agricultural crops in two ways.  First, it can directly cause mutila-
tion of the plant leaf, stem, or root system.  Second, it can indi-
rectly affect the crop by causing changes in the underlying soil
properties, thereby chang-ing the type and/or rate of nutrients cycled
through the crops.  Uncultivated crops such  as range grasses are of
greatest concern.  Combined controlled field and laboratory crop
studies are currently being undertaken.  These experiments involve
exposing designated crops to a series of variable-pH simulated
rainfalls and measuring their overall growth, weight, and yield.
Results from preliminary studies indicate decreased productivity for
56ciass, N.R.,  G.E. Likens, and L.S. Dochinger, "The Ecological
  Effects of Atmospheric Deposition," in U.S.  Environmental
  Protection Agency, Energy/Environment III,  EPA-600/9-78-002, 1978,
  pp. 113-139.
     m, C.O., "Acid Precipitation:   Biological Effects in Soil on
  Forest Vegetation," Ambio, Vol. 5, 1976,  pp. 235-238.
5°Dochinger, L.A. and T.A.  Selega,  eds., Proceedings of  the First
  International Symposium on Acid Precipitation and the  Forest
  Ecosystems, USDA Forest Service General Technical Report NE 23,
  Northeastern Forest Exp.  Station, Upper Daly, Pennsylvania, 1976.

                                  210

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some crops continually exposed to more acidic rains, and increased
productivity for others.59

     Effects on Materials

     Acidic deposition may result in extensive damage to buildings,
statues, and the like, through degradation of metals, paints, stones,
and other materials.  The Parthenon in Athens, which has aged more
during the past century than during all its previous existence may be
an example of acid deposition-caused degradation.  However, various
kinds of atmospheric pollution in recent times can combine to cause
damage.  In stone and marble, the sulfate ion in precipitation or dry
deposition replaces the carbonate ion in CaCC>3 rendering the
surface more easily eroded.  In metals, the surface is spoiled by
electrolytic corrosion due to exposure to acidic compounds.

     Acid deposition effects on materials have not yet been quanti-
fied, but indications are that acid precursor gases (862 and NOX)
and particulate matter produced from coal combustion do damage vari-
ous materials.""  Substantiation of this kind of evidence would
underscore the potential for significant economic loss from damage to
materials by acid deposition.

5.4  STRATOSPHERIC OZONE

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 5.4

o  Chlorof luorocarbons"-'- are stable in the troposphere but are
   photodisassociated in the stratosphere.  The halogens released,
   primarily chlorine, are expected to cause the reduction of the
   ozone concentrations of the stratosphere, thereby increasing
   ultraviolet radiation at the ground.

o  Reduction of ozone by other mechanisms has also been predicted,
   but chlorofluorocarbon release remains the issue of most concern.
   Legislative and regulatory action has been taken to lower chloro-
   fluorocarbon emission rates.
CO
J Lee, J.J., personal communication, crop yield and foliar injury
  study, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Research
  Laboratory, Corvallis, Oregon, summer 1979.
60Glass, N.R.,  "Identification and Distribution of Inorganic
  Components in Water:  What to Measure?",  Annals of the New York
  Academy of Sciences, Vol. 298, 1977, p. 31.
"^The word chlorofluorocarbon refers to the general category of
  chlorofluoroalkanes, which include chlorofluoromethanes (CFM).
  Other terms used in identifying these gases include halocarbons and
  Freon© (or other trade names).
                                211

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o  The incidence of increased ultraviolet radiation will result in
   reduced productivity in agriculture, adverse effects on some mar-
   ine life forms and increased incidence of cancer in humans and
   other animals.  Slight climatic effects in the form of global
   atmospheric warming are also predicted.

5.4.1  Introduction

     Small concentrations of ozone (03) in the stratosphere provide
vital protection for the entire biosphere, including man, from the
sun's ultraviolet (UV) radiation.  Although the harmful effects of
excessive ultraviolet exposure (e.g., sunburn) have been known for
many years, the potential for man's activities to decrease ozone,
permitting the penetration of the more damaging portion of the solar
ultraviolet radiation spectrum, has been suggested only recently.  A
number of mechanisms for ozone depletion have been cited in the sci-
entific literature; the most important appears to be the release of
chlorofluorocarbon gases in the atmosphere.

5.4.2  Problem Identification and Regulatory Background

     Chlorofluorocarbons released in the lower atmosphere migrate to
the stratosphere where they are decomposed by the intense solar ul-
traviolet radiation that does not penetrate the ozone layer to reach
the earth's surface.  The chlorine in these compounds is released and
participates in ozone destruction.

     Ozone depletion resulting from other of man's activities (such
as stratospheric aircraft flights, rocket launching, use of large
quantities of nitrogen fertilizers, and release of other halogen
gases) has also been predicted.  The threat associated with these
potential ozone-depleting activities is currently considered small
compared to the expected effects of chlorofluorocarbon release.
Note, however, that estimating the size of the threat from any of
these processes involves prediction based on limited facts and under-
standing.  For example, early ozone depletion estimates were modified
considerably as knowledge increased, and additional changes were
revealed.  The uncertainty about the magnitude of possible effects
requires that suspect processes or pollutants be scrutinized.

     The Unpolluted Stratosphere

     The stratosphere can be described most conveniently in terms of
its composition and temperature structure and that of the rest of the
atmosphere (see Figure 5-13).  The atmosphere of the earth has three
distinct vertical regions:
                                212

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                                                        LARGE SST

                                                        "CONCORDE
                                                        . TU-144


                                                        SUBSONIC
                                                        AIRCRAFT
200
                                         280
300
 Source:
             220    240   260

               TEMPERATURE (°K)

Adapted from National  Academy of Sciences, Environmental

Impact of Stratospheric Flight, Washington, D.C.,  1975.
                           FIGURE 5-13

       THE ATMOSPHERE'S TEMPERATURE/ALTITUDE PROFILE
                               213

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     o  Troposphere—The atmosphere from the earth's surface to the
        tropopause, about 19 kilometers in extent at the poles and
        10 kilometers at the equator.   The temperature of the tropo-
        sphere drops with altitude.  The tropopause identifies the
        upper limit of the troposphere and the lower limit of the
        stratosphere.

     o  Stratosphere—Atmosphere extending from 10 to 24 kilometers
        above the earth's surface, in which the temperature is fairly
        constant, increasing with altitude.  The stratopause occurs
        at the upper limit of the stratosphere and lower limit of the
        mesosphere.

     o  Mesosphere—Atmospheric zone about 24 to 80 kilometers above
        the earth's surface.  It is characterized by a decrease in
        temperature with altitude.

     The increase in temperature with altitude in the stratosphere
results in very limited vertical mixing, compared with the tropo-
sphere.  Hence, residence times of stable compounds can be very high.

     The concentration of ozone at any point in the stratosphere re-
sults from the balance of the competing processes of its creation and
destruction.  Ozone is created in the stratosphere when molecular
oxygen (62) absorbs UV radiation, producing atomic oxygen (0),
which reacts with molecular oxygen to form ozone.  Ozone is destroyed
when it interacts with certain compounds, primarily those involving
nitrogen, hydrogen, or chlorine.  It is also destroyed when it ab-
sorbs UV radiation and is dissociated into 0 and 02«  Only a small
amount of the ozone is destroyed in this manner.  The dominant ozone
destruction mechanism involves the nitrogen oxides, nitric oxide (NO)
and nitrogen dioxide (N02).  Destruction of ozone in the unpolluted
stratosphere is dominated by the following process:

                 NO + 03  = N02 + 02
                 N02 + 0  = NO + 02

          Net:   03 + 0   = 202

These conversions are responsible for about 70 percent of ozone
destruction.

     In converting the ozone to molecular oxygen, the nitrogen com-
pounds are conserved and so act in a catalytic manner.  Each molecule
of NO can participate in the destruction of many ozone molecules be-
fore it reacts with other stratospheric constituents to form nitric
                                214

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acid, which is removed by tropospheric rain processes, assuming that
the acid reaches the troposphere.

     A less important ozone-destroying process involves the catalytic
action of hydroxyl (HO) and hydroperoxyl (H02), wherein hydrogen
replaces nitrogen in the equations above.

     Chlorine (Cl) also participates in removal of ozone in the stra-
tosphere.  The processes are as follows:

              Cl + 03    = CIO + 02
              CIO + 0    = Cl + 02

        Net:  03+0     = 202

As in the case of nitrogen compounds, the catalytic agent, Cl,
remains available to repeat its role in this process.

     The sources of compounds that result in catalytic removal of
ozone have been extensively studied.  The hydrogen species result
from water vapor (H20), methane (Clfy), and a photochemical pro-
cess involving atomic oxygen.  The nitrogen compounds result from the
oxidation of a small part of the nitrous oxide (N20) produced by
bacteria at the surface of the earth.  Nitrous oxide is inert in the
troposphere so that a large fraction of the N20 reaches the strato-
sphere.  There, most of the N20 is photodisassociated into molecu-
lar nitrogen (N2) and 0.   The remaining N20 yields nitric oxide,
which acts as the catalytic agent.

     Stratospheric chlorine is the result of gradual upward movement
of chlorine-containing compounds from the troposphere.  The amount of
natural stratospheric chlorine is small and results from those tropo-
spheric chlorine compounds with the most stability.  Sources suspec-
ted of contributing chlorine to the stratospheric region include
methyl chloride, natural carbon tetrachloride,62 volcanic emis-
sions, and sea salt spray."^

     Stratospheric ozone plays two important roles in the environment
of the biosphere.  First, the photochemical processes in the strato-
sphere help filter the sunlight and thereby reduce the intensity of
"^Council on Environmental Quality, Fluorocarbons and the
  Environment:  Report of Federal Task Force on Inadvertent
  Modification of the Stratosphere (IMPS), June 1975.
"^National Academy of Sciences, Halocarbons:  Effects of
  Stratospheric Ozone, Washington, B.C., 1976.
                                  215

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UV light that reaches the ground.  Molecular oxygen is a strong ab-
sorber for wavelengths below 240 nanometers (nm).   The ozone formed
from atomic and molecular oxygen absorbs radiation in the wavelength
range from 240-320 nm.  This range of wavelengths  covers that part of
the ultraviolet spectrum which affects man and other organisms.
Second, the presence of ozone in the stratosphere  is a contributing
factor in determining the climate of the earth.  Because of the pho-
tochemical properties of ozone and its parents, molecular and atomic
oxygen, the upper stratosphere is nearly as warm as the earth°^ and
influences the radiative transfer of the atmosphere.

     Ozone exhibits its highest concentrations in  the atmosphere be-
tween about 12 and 50 kilometers, with the maximum occurring above 25
kilometers; the exact altitude depends on season and latitude (see
Figure 5-14).  The total ozone column can be conveniently defined in
terms of its total burden: the number of molecules of ozone within a
cylinder of unit area (usually 1 cm^) between the  surface of the
earth and the top of the atmosphere.  Such a method of quantifying
the amount of ozone is useful because it allows a  ground-based mea-
surement of its spatial and temporal variability.   By observing the
intensity of solar ultraviolet radiation reaching  the ground and cor-
recting for the sun's position in the sky, such calculations of total
ozone can be obtained and, indeed, form the basis  for much of the
historical data on ozone variation.  An example of such measurements
appears in Figure 5-15.

     Stratospheric ozone shows temporal variability, which includes a
seasonal cycle, daily variability, slow trends, and possibly cycles
related to the periodicity of the sunspot cycles and other solar
phenomena.^  Figure 5-16 illustrates the considerable variation
over time for total global ozone.  Even higher temporal variations
occur within smaller areas.  The variation of ozone concentration is
shown to be related to solar activity in Figures 5-17 and 5-18.  The
periodic effect due to sunspot cycles is clear in  Figure 5-17, and
the effect of a solar proton event is shown in Figure 5-18.

     The Polluted Stratosphere

     The mechanisms of stratospheric ozone depletion include those
processes common to the unperturbed stratosphere but accelerated by
6^Panofsky, H., "Earth's Endangered Ozone," Environment, Vol. 20,
  April 1979, p.17.
^Parry, H.D, "Ozone Depletion by Chlorofluoromethanes?  Yet
  Another Look," Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 16, November
  1977, p. 1137.  See also:  "Solar Flickers Linked with Ozone
  Fluctuations," New Scientist, Vol. 79, August 31, 1978, p. 621.

                                  216

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  70
   60
  50
en
OS
w
W
S
§
2
z
  40
  30
o
3
33
  20
   10
     0
                                                         o KRUEGER

                                                         A HILSENRATH
                           468
                       OZONE VOLUME MIXING RATIO (PPMV)
                                                              10
12
      Note: The solid line is a preliminary retrieval from measurements by the LRIR aboard the Nimbus-6
          satellite, Symbols show in situ measurements from rockets by the Krueger optical ozonesonde
          and the Hilsenrath chemoluminescent sbnde.
 Source:  Adapted from Hudson, R. ,  ed.,  Chlorofluoromethanes and  the
          Stratosphere, Reference publication 1010, National Aeronautics
          and  Space Administration, Washington, B.C.,  August 1977.
                                  FIGURE 5-14
                   OZONE PROFILE IN THE STRATOSPHERE
                      OVER WALLOPS ISLAND, VIRGINIA
                                 JULY 29,1975
                                      217

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          100°W  140°    lii()°    140°   100°   60
     80°N




       60°

    |  40°

    |  20°

    ^   °
    |  20°
    si
    x  40°


       60°
                    80°l\
                                                                - 80°S
           I  ! I  I I  I I  . I  I I  . I  I I  I I  . I I  I 1  I !  I 1  1 I  1 I  I 1  I I  I
         IOO°W   140°   180°   140°    100°    60°   20°  0  20°   60°E
                          GKOGR \PHIC i,oN(;nri)K
Note:  Ozone amounts in milli-atmosphere-cm.

Source:  Adapted from Council  on  Environmental  Quality,  Fluorocarbons
         and the Environment:   Report of the  Federal Task Force on
         Inadvertent Modification  of  the Stratosphere(IMPS),  June 1975.

                               FIGURE 5-15
             AVERAGE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF TOTAL OZONE
   N5
      4
                      I
I
I
         1957         1%0         1963        1966         1969        1972
                                    VlvVR
     Source:  Adapted from National Academy of Sciences, Environmental
              Impact of Stratospheric Flight,  Washington, D.C., 1975.

                               FIGURE 5-16
                  CHANGE OVER TIME OF WORLD OZONE
                                  218

-------
OS
w
CQ
   200
 1111 1111111111111111111111 M 111111111 n i 111 11 11111

- SUNSPOT NUMBER
Z  100
Z
o
N
O
Z
o
N
O
   400
   300
   200
   400
   300
  200
       TOTAL OZONE OBSERVED
        TOTAL OZONE, CONSIDERING CALCULATED BOMB EFFECT
       1111 1111111i1111 i i i 111 i 111 it 111
               1930
                   1940
1960
1970
                                1950

                             YEAR

Note:  Ozone concentration  is  in milli-atmosphere centimeters at

       Standard Temperature and  Pressure.  In the third panel, a

       correction for  nuclear  bomb  effects is included, (see Figure
       5-20).

Source:   Adapted from  National Academy of Sciences, Environmental

         Impact of Stratospheric Flight, Washington, D.C.,  1975.


                        FIGURE 5-17

           AVERAGE OZONE AND SUNSPOT NUMBER
                              219

-------
  0.015
  0.013
Cd

O
CQ
  0.011
o
1SJ
o
H
O
H
0.003
    i i li
                                      TrTTT
                                                       75-80°N
1 1
                          1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1
                                         1
         10
                         20
     1      10       20        1
    JULY                     AUG                    SEPT 1972
Source:   Adapted from Hudson,  R.,  ed., Chlorofluoromethanes  and the
         Stratosphere, Reference publication 1010, National  Aero-
         nautics and Space Administration, Washington, B.C., August
         1977.
                        FIGURE 5-18
    DECREASE IN OZONE ABOVE THE 4 MILLIBAR SURFACE
               FOR A SOLOR-PROTON EVENT
                      AUGUST 4,1972
                               220

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the existence of higher than natural concentrations of catalytic
agents.  This will result in ozone levels which are smaller than
would have occurred in an unpolluted environment.  Furthermore, the
low mixing rate characteristic of the stratosphere encourages long-
term residence of these pollutants.

     Most of the chlorofluorocarbons released in the lower atmosphere
are in the forms of F-l1 and F-12.  These and other chlorofluorocar-
bons remaining in the troposphere are chemically inert in the tropo-
sphere.^  The small part (approximately 1 percent per year) that
reaches the stratosphere is decomposed by UV radiation, yielding free
chlorine.  Other sources of chlorine include man-made carbon
tetrachloride, trichloroethylene, methyl chloroform, and several
other chlorofluorocarbons.    Exhaust from launches of the space
shuttle will also contribute chlorine to the stratosphere.

     The production rates of chlorofluorocarbons F-ll and F-12 are
shown in Table 5-4.  Figure 5-19 shows the expected change in trend
line resulting from the imposition of controls on release.

     The lifetime of chlorofluorocarbons in the lower atmosphere is
an important factor in determining the amount that might survive to
affect stratospheric levels.  Over a dozen possible processes for
removal of chlorofluorocarbons have been studied, and only two—
removal at the ocean surface and active removal in the stratosphere
by photolysis—proceed at significant rates.  Even these two reac-
tions would require more than 50 years to reduce the current
chlorofluorocarbon concentration to half its present value.6°
Clearly, most chlorofluorocarbon molecules, once released into the
atmosphere, remain intact for many years and can serve as persistent
sources of chlorine in the stratosphere.

     The existence of other halogens in the stratosphere has been
considered as well, since they can act in the same catalytic role as
chlorine.  One example is methyl bromide, which is used in large
           , H. , "Earth's Endangered Ozone," Environment, Vol.  20,
  April  1979,  p.17.
^National Academy of Sciences, Halocarbons;  Effects on
  Stratospheric Ozone, Washington, B.C.  1976.  See also:  McConnell,
  J., and H. Schiff, "Methyl Chloroform:   Impact on  Stratospheric
  Ozone," Science, Vol.  199, January  13,  1978, p.  174.  Comments by
  A. Altshuller and H. Singh and response  by the authors in Science,
  Vol. 199, May 19, 1978.
^^Hudson, R.,  ed., Chlorofluoromethanes  and the Stratosphere,
  Reference Publication  1010, National Aeronautics and Space
  Administration, Washington, D.C., August 1977.
                                 221

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                              TABLE 5-4
          PRODUCTION OF SELECTED FLUOROCARBONS:
                        (MILLIONS OF POUNDS)
                                          1958-1973
                                        F-ll
                                      (CC13F)
                                               F-12
                                              (CC1F2)
Year

1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
  F-22a
(CHC1F2)
   22
   36
   43
   50
   56
   59
   55
   71
   73
   80
   80
    F-114
(CC1F2CC1F2)
      11
      12
      13
      22
      17
      22a
      17a
U.S.

 51
 60
 72
 91
124
140
148
170
170
182
204
239
244
258
300
325
    Totals
World
Total

   51
   60
   89
  114
  158
  184
  206
  246
  268
  307
  364
  435
  478
  532
  628
  690

4,810
U.S.
World
Total
                                                  7,575
aSales.

Source:
  Adapted from Council on Environmental Quality, Fluorocarbons
  and the Environment:  Report of Federal Task Force on
  Inadvertent Modification of the Stratosphere (IMPS),June
  1975.
                                  222

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    500
    400
    300
  W
  z
  z
  o
  H
  Q
  O
  EC

  H 200
     100
      0
L _L  I   I   I   I   I  I  I  I  I   I   I   I   I   I   I   I
      1958  1960  1962   1964   1966  1968   1970   1972   1974   1976

Source:   Adapted from Gribben,  J.,  "Ozone Passion  Cooled by the

         Breath of Sweet Reason," New Scientist, Vol.  80,

         October 12,  1978, p. 9.



                           FIGURE 5-19

              GLOBAL FLUOROCARBON PRODUCTION
                                223

-------
quantities as an agricultural fumigant   and may contribute bromine
to the stratosphere.  It also has been suggested'^ that carbon
tetrafluoride (CF^) may be a dominant source of halocarbons in the
atmosphere, and that it may be created naturally from an as yet uni-
dentified source.  If fluorine concentrations remain below a few
parts per billion, a negligible effect is expected.

     Stratospheric flight, in spite of the small amount of traffic
above the troposphere, remains a topic of interest because engine
exhausts contain nitrogen compounds that are expected to add to the
natural nitrogen levels and thereby contribute to ozone depletion.
But such flight is presently believed to have a negligible effect on
the stratospheric ozone concentration.

     Regulatory Background

     American efforts to develop a supersonic transport aircraft led
to concern about the integrity of the stratospheric ozone layer.  The
issue now centers on the effects of release of chlorofluorocarbon
gases.  Most of the analysis of the possible effects of stratospheric
flight took place in the Climatic Impact Assessment Program (CIAP), a
major multi-year research effort of the Department of Transportation.
This program was initiated by the Congress in 1971 with a goal of
receiving analyses of possible impacts by 1974.  At the same time,
the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering formed a Climatic
Impact Committee to advise CIAP and to issue an independent final
report.'^  Since the completion of CIAP, additional research has
led to a more complete understanding of the stratosphere and the ways
that aircraft affect the regions.

     The possible threat to stratospheric ozone from chlorofluorocar-
                                                            ~7 "^
bon gases was first recognized by Molina and Rowland in 1974   and
"^National Academy of Sciences, Halocarbons;  Effects on
  Stratospehric Ozone, Washington, D.C., 1976.
'0"Rich Natural Sources of Halocarbons in the Atmosphere,"  New
  Scientist, Vol. 81, February 15, 1979, p. 477.
^National Aeronautics and Space Administration, The Stratosphere!
  Present and Future, Reference Publication 1049, December 1979,
  p. 344.
7 ?
  National Academy of Sciences, Environmental Impact of
  Stratospheric Flight, Washington, D.C., 1975.
'^Molina, M. and F. Rowland, "Stratospheric Sink for Chlorofluo-
  romethanes:  Chlorine Atom-Catalyzed Destruction of Ozone,"
  Nature, Vol. 249, June 28, 1974, p. 810.


                                224

-------
was later analyzed by Crutzen7^ and Cicerone et al.5  Various
research institutions and scientists have since helped refine our
understanding of this threat.  Most remarkable has been the prompt
response of government in addressing the chlorofluorocarbon issue.
As early as 6 months after the Molina and Rowland paper, the Council
on Environmental Quality and the Federal Council for Science and Tech-
nology worked together to create an Interagency Task Force on Inad-
vertent Modification of the Stratosphere (IMOS).76  By June 1975,
IMOS released its findings and recommendations for governmental
action.

     Over subsequent years, regulatory action to control release of
chlorofluorocarbons was taken, under provisions of the Clean Air Act,
the Toxic Substances Control Act and the Federal Food, Drug, and
Cosmetic Act.  In addition, the 1977 Amendments to the Clean Air Act
assigned EPA the responsibility for actions required to protect the
ozone in the stratosphere.  Chlorofluorocarbons have been banned for
use as propellants (with certain exceptions) in the United States
since April 1979.77

     Because about one-half of the chlorofluorocarbons used in the
United States were for aerosol propellants78 and because the United
States used half the chlorofluorocarbons produced worldwide, a ban on
propellant uses in the United States reduces emissions by only
approximately 20 percent.7"

     International activities designed to exchange knowledge on the
impact of chlorofluorocarbons on the ozone layer have been coordina-
ted, to a great extent, by the United Nations Environmental
7^Crutzen, P.x,  "Estimates of Possible Future Ozone Reductions  from
  Continued Use of Fluoro-Chloro-Methanes  (CF2C12, CFCL3),"
  Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.  1,  September  1974, p. 205.
75Cicerone, R.J., R.S. Stolarksi, and S. Walters,  "Stratospheric
  Ozone Destruction by Man-Made Chlorofluoromethanes," Science, Vol.
  185, September 27,  1975, p.  1165.
7^Council on Environmental Quality, Fluorocarbons  and the
  Environment;  Report of Federal Task Force on  Inadvertent Modifica-
  tion of the Stratosphere (IMOS), June  1975.
77Brennan, R.P., "A Soft Approach to Chlorofluorocarbon
  Regulation,"  Environment, Vol. 21, April 1979, p.  41.  See also:
  Gibbons, S.,  "Regulation of  Chlorofluorocarbons:   Phase I,"
  Environment,  Vol. 20, May 1979, p.  5.
78Panofsky, H., "Earth's Endangered Ozone," Environment, Vol.  20,
  April 1979, p. 17.
79Ibid.

                                225

-------
Program.Their work includes the organization of the Coordi-
nating Committee on the Ozone Layer, which implements elements of the
United Nations Environmental Program's plan of action to deal with
the threat to ozone.  However, some individual countries, Canada and
those in Scandinavia, have taken a course of action similar to that
of the United States.  The Common Market nations are considering
action to control aerosol emissions.  Their actions are predicted to
lower emissions outside the U.S. by 8 to 10 percent of the 1974
level.81

     Two major international meetings concerned with this problem
have been held.  The first of these was held in Washington in 1977 at
the invitation of the United States, and the second in 1978 in Munich
under the sponsorship of the Federal Republic of Germany.  At each
meeting, the U.S. delegation presented the most recent scientific
findings and argued for greater international control of this
problem.°2  Typically, the problems encountered at these meetings
result from the inability to translate a consensus o'f threat among
scientists to a course of action involving regulation and possible
negative economic impacts.  The UNEP meetings consider only technical
developments and analyses.

5.4.3  Relevant Scenario Assumptions

     Estimates or ozone depletion are derived from atmospheric models
which, in their most sophisticated form, include the effects of
horizontal and vertical transport, as well as chemical processes.
The inputs to these models include the parameters describing these
various physical and chemical processes and the state of the unper-
turbed atmosphere.  In addition, the models use assumptions concern-
ing the magnitude of release of chlorofluorocarbons.

     Early estimates of the effect of chlorofluorocarbons, for exam-
ple, were based on an assumed emission rate equal to that for 1973,
and they further assumed that this rate would continue until an equi-
librium ozone concentration was achieved."   The imposition of
^Gibbons, s. , "Regulation of Chlorof luorocarbons:  Phase I,"
  Environment, Vol. 20, May  1979, p. 5.
^National Academy of Sciences, Protection Against Depletion of
  Stratospheric Ozone by Chlorofluorocarbons, Washington, D.C.,  1979.
82stoel, T., "Fluorocarbons, A Global Environmental Case Study,"
  New Scientist, Vol. 82, January 18, 1979, p.  166.
^National Academy of Sciences, Environmental Impact of
  Stratospheric Flight, Washington, B.C., 1975.
*^Parry, H.D., "Ozone Depletion by Chlorofluoromethanes?  Yet
  Another Look," Journal of  Applied Meteorology,  Vol.  16, November
  1977, p. 1137.

                                226

-------
controls on chlorofluorocarbon emissions in the United States has, of
course, required a change in these assumptions.  More recent esti-
mates are derived from assumptions that the 1977 rate will continue
          OC
unchanged.0J

     The inclusion of other sources of chlorine, or other halocar-
bons, in an ozone reduction model expands projection possibilities
enormously.  In one example, four different postulations for chloro-
fluorocarbon and methyl chloroform release were used to estimate
eventual impacts on ozone."   Natural contributions may also be
included in the model inputs and add other dimensions.

     A number of different hypotheses have been employed to estimate
the ozone depletion induced by stratospheric flight.  Common among
these are (1) the actual number of Russian and British-French SSTs;
(2) 500 SSTs; and (3) 100 large SSTs, as might have been built by the
United States until other forces prevented their development.  As in
the case of chlorofluorocarbons, models of ozone depletion resulting
from these fleets of aircraft also make use of other information; for
example, engine design, nitrogen emission rates, flight paths and
frequency, and technological developments such as fuel cleaning are
included.

5.4.4  Data Sources and Quality

     Estimates of the magnitude of ozone decrease are generally ac-
knowledged to be imprecise.  The cornerstone of the calculation is an
estimate of the emission rate of important pollutants, which is domi-
nated by halogen releases in the troposphere.  Anthropogenic emis-
sions of chlorofluorocarbons are estimated to an accuracy of 5 per-
cent."'  The natural sources of halogens, such as methyl chloride
and carbon tetrafluoride, have not been clearly identified or quanti-
fied, but estimates of their impact have been made by the National
Academy of Sciences and others.
°"5Gribben, J. ,  "Disappearing Threat to Ozone," New Scientist, Vol.
  81, February 15, 1979, p. 474.  See also:  Stoel, T., "Fluoro-
  carbons, A Global Environmental Case Study," New Scientist, Vol.
  82, January 18, 1979, p. 166.
86McConnell, J. and H. Schiff, "Methyl Chloroform:  Impact on
  Stratospheric Ozone," Science, Vol. 199, January 13, 1978, p. 174.
  Comments by A.  Altshuller and H. Singh and response by the authors
  in Science, Vol. 199, May 19, 1978.
"'McCarthy, R., F. Bower, and J. Jesson, "The Flurocarbon-Ozone
  Theory-I, Production and Release—World Production and Release of
  CC13F and CC12F2 (Fluorocarbons 11 and 12) through 1975,"
  Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 11, 1977, p. 491.


                                227

-------
     In addition to estimates of the rate of release of these gases
to the troposphere, subjects such as removal mechanisms, vertical
transport, and chemical rate coefficients must be considered.  As
more information is gathered, new and improved estimates of ozone
depletion can be made.  Confidence in the newer estimates must be
tempered, however, by the fact that even slight changes in some model
inputs can result in significant changes in the predictions.  For
example, original estimates that stratospheric flight would reduce
ozone quantities have been altered by the inclusion of new chemistry
and new data; a slight increase in ozone is now predicted to result
from flights in the lower stratosphere, with the possibility of a
slight decrease in ozone from higher altitude flights.

5.4.5  Trends in Factors Affecting Ozone

     As noted in the introduction, a number of mechanisms can reduce
ozone in the stratosphere, in varying amounts.  Some of these are
briefly discussed below.

     Chlorofluorocarbons F-ll and F-12

     Emissions of Chlorofluorocarbons F-ll and F-12 for propellant
applications came under control as the United States took action to
restrict unnecessary emissions.  Among members of the European Eco-
nomic Community, a control program is expected to lower chlorofluoro-
carbon releases to 70 percent of 1976 rates. °>°'  Because the rate
of propagation of Chlorofluorocarbons into the stratosphere is slow,
and because these compounds have few known tropospheric sinks, the
already existing tropospheric concentrations will continue to con-
tribute chlorine to the stratosphere.  Even if all tropospheric
emissions were halted, it would take about 50 years'^ for removal
of one-half the Chlorofluorocarbons to occur.

     Other Halocarbons

     Sources of halocarbons other than Chlorofluorocarbons F-ll and
F-12 include both man-made and natural materials.  Methyl
^National Academy of Sciences, Protection Against Depletion of
  Stratospheric Ozone by Chlorofluorocarbons.  Washington, D.C.,
  1979.
89cribben, J., "Disappearing Threat to Ozone," New Scientist, Vol.
  81, February 15, 1979, p. 474 and National Academy of Sciences,
  Protection Against Depletion of Stratospheric Ozone by Chlorofluor-
  ocarbons, Washington D.C., 1979.
9uPanofsky, H., "Earth's Endangered Ozone," Environment, Vol. 20,
  April 1979, p. 17.
                                  228

-------
chloroform,'^ an inert solvent, has been identified as a signifi-
cant source of stratospheric chlorine which may, depending on addi-
tions of chlorine from chlorofluorocarbons, increase the rate of
ozone depletion by about 20 percent.  Methyl chloride, a natural
product of forest fires and other sources, has been estimated as such
a significant source in the troposphere that it dominates man's
contribution. ^  Carbon tetrafluoride, which is very stable in the
troposphere, releases fluorine rather than chlorine in the strato-
sphere and is thought to have both natural and man-made sources.93
This source of halogens in the stratosphere is also thought to be
large with respect to the contribution from chlorofluorocarbons.
Methyl bromide, a man-made chemical, is considered to be an addi-
tional ozone-depleting material, since it contributes bromine to the
stratosphere.

     Stratospheric Flight

     The possibility that stratospheric flight might result in re-
duced ozone initiated concern about this atmospheric region.  The
first concern centered on the development of supersonic commercial
airliners which release engine exhaust including water vapor and
oxides of nitrogen; both these components might augment the natural
participants in ozone depletion.  Subsonic flights in polar regions
might produce the same effects, since the lower altitude of the trop-
opause in that region puts even conventional jet airliners in the
stratosphere.

     Two elements have substantially reduced the projected ozone
depletion that might result from such flights.  First, the number of
aircraft that fly in this region, particularly SSTs, has been sub-
stantially reduced by other forces, including economics and noise
impact.  Second, and perhaps more important, further laboratory
studies and recalculation with more refined estimates of chemical
rate coefficients have altered the expected impact to include the
possibility that the engine emissions slightly increase ozone in the
lower stratosphere.^
91McConnell J., and H. Schiff, "Methyl Chloroform:  Impact on
  Stratospheric Ozone," Science, Vol. 199, January 13, 1978, p. 174.
  Comments by A. Altshuller and H. Singh and response by the authors
  in Science, Vol. 199, May 19, 1978.
92cribben, J., "Ozone Passion Cooled by the Breath of Sweet
  Reason," New Scientist, Vol. 80, October 12, 1978, p. 94.
93stoel, T., "Fluorocarbons, a Global Environmental Case Study,"
  New Scientist, Vol. 82, January 18, 1979, p. 166.
94panofsky, H., "Earth's Endangered Ozone," Environment, Vol. 20,
  April 1979, p. 17.   See also:  Gribben, J., "Disappearing Threat to
  Ozone," New Scientist, Vol. 81, February 15, 1979, p. 474.

                                 229

-------
     A mechanism which leads to reduced estimates of ozone depletion
was found to relate nitrogen and chlorine compounds.  The rate of the
reaction:

              CIO + N02 + M = C1N03 + M

              (where M is some other catalyzing molecule)

has been evaluated and is found to be sufficiently fast to offer a
sink for both nitrogen and chlorine (since C1NC>3 is relatively
stable).  In addition, one of the key processes in removal of NO is:

              H02 + NO = OH + N02.

The rate constant for this process has been found to be greater than
earlier estimates.  The higher rate of production of OH means a more
effective sink for nitrogen, since OH reacts with oxides of nitrogen
to form nitric acid.  This acid does not react with ozone and is sus-
ceptible to rainout in the troposphere.  Also, the increased rate
implies a lower steady-state concentration of NO, which reduces the
catalytic consumption of nitrogen by ozone.  Inclusion of all these
factors in a model of the stratosphere leads to the prediction that
flight in the lower stratosphere can be expected to slightly increase
ozone concentrations, while flights at higher altitudes might produce
a slight decrease in ozone.

     Nitrogen Fertilizers

     Nitrogen fertilizers have been used increasingly in the recent
past.  There is some evidence that soil processes convert some of the
nitrogen to N20.  Emission of this N20 into the troposphere, and
its eventual propagation to the stratosphere, may add to the existing
stratospheric nitrogen pool and thereby add to that ozone depletion
mechanism.95  The process by which this might occur is quite com-
plex and not well understood.  The National Academy of Sciences^
suggested in 1976 that the question of the possible impact of nitro-
gen fertilizers be resolved by 1981.  Since that time, changes in the
rate constants for the formation of C1N03 and N02 have resulted
in a smaller perceived threat to stratospheric ozone.9?
 95"Nitrate Fertilizers Threaten the Ozone Layer," New Scientist,
   Vol. 19, September 28, 1978, p. 918.
 '"National Academy of Sciences, Halocarbons:   Effects of Strato-
   spheric Ozone, Washington, D.C., 1976.
 9/fPanofsky, H. ,  "Earth's Endangered Ozone," Environment, Vol. 20,
   April 1979, p. 17.
                                 230

-------
     Comparison of the threat of fertilizer with other ozone-
depleting mechanisms puts this problem in perspective. Although sub-
ject to considerable uncertainty, chlorofluorocarbons are estimated
to be four times as threatening, while a large fleet (500) of SSTs
might be twice as dangerous to the ozone.'"  It appears that the
important benefits of fertilizers to agricultural production more
than offset the minor ozone depletion which might result.

     Rocket Launching

     The era of the space shuttle will introduce a new source of
stratospheric chlorine over and above the natural sources and chloro-
fluorocarbons.  Each launch will result in the direct injection of
combustion products into the stratosphere.  These include hydrochlor-
ic acid gas, solid particles of aluminum oxide, aluminum chloride,
and ferric chloride.  The quantities will be large (about 80 tons of
HC1) and concentrated.  Modeling results indicate that a program of
50 shuttle launches a year will have little effect on total ozone
(reducing it by about 0.15 percent) but will concentrate its effect
in the launch area.  However, there will be considerable delay before
50 shuttle launches a year occur.

     Other

     Two other factors thought to have an effect on stratospheric
ozone are solar activity" and nuclear detonation. ^  In the
solar case, the monthly mean global ozone is found to be correlated
with monthly mean solar output (as shown in Figure 5-17).  Analyses
of this type may be useful for isolating the relative magnitude of
natural and anthropogenic impacts on stratospheric ozone.

     Atmospheric detonation of nuclear weapons would introduce large
quantities of nitrogen compounds into the stratosphere.  A theoreti-
cal analysis of the effect is shown in Figure 5-20 for Northern Hemi-
spheric ozone.
 98"Nitrate Fertilizers Threaten the Ozone Layer," New Scientist,
   Vol. 19, September 28, 1978, p. 918.
 ""Solar Flickers Linked with Ozone Fluctuations," New Scientist,
   Vol. 79, August 31, 1978, p. 621.  See also:  Keating, G.,
   "Relation Between Monthly Variations of Global Ozone and Solar
   Activity," Nature, Vol. 174, August 31, 1978, p. 873.
100Block, B.P., "The Continuing Controversy About Ozone," Book
   Review of The Ozone War by L. Dotto and H. Shiff (Doubleday) in
   Chemical and Engineering News, July 16, 1979.
                                231

-------
               1960         1965          1970          1975
                                 YEAR
           Note: Percent deviation is obtained by weighting the climatic zones by the
               approximate area of the Earth's surface that they represent.
Source:  Adapted from  Hudson, R., ed.,  Chlorofluoromethanes and  the
         Stratosphere, Reference  publication 1010, National Aero-
         nautics and Space Administration, Washington, B.C., August
         1977.
                           FIGURE 5-20
              CALCULATED REDUCTION OF OZONE IN
                  THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
              AS A RESULT OF NUCLEAR BOMB TESTS
                                 232

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5.4.6  Trends in Ozone Depletion

     The threat of ozone depletion in the future due to a variety of
human activities can be related, in principle, to past actions and
the observed stratospheric ozone trends.  For the most part, predic-
tion of future ozone levels will depend on the quality of the atmo-
spheric models used and the accuracy of inputs to the models.

     Predictions

     As noted earlier, prediction of ozone depletion rate is a diffi-
cult and somewhat uncertain process.  Estimates are constantly modi-
fied as more is understood about the photochemical processes of the
stratosphere.  Early estimates assumed a continuing rate of chloro-
fluorocarbon release equal to the 1973 rate and calculated the ozone
depletion.  Normally, the depletion at equilibrium was computed:
What new value of ozone concentration would exist after all
atmospheric processes, including the release of chlorofluorocarbons,
had come to equilibrium?  A wide range of values for ozone depletion
was predicted, most lying in the range of 2 to 20 percent, 101 with
a 7 percent decrease suggested as quite probable.

     Very recent results by the U.S. National Academy of Scien-
ces!02 give higher estimates by concluding that release of chloro-
fluorocarbons at the current (1977) rate will ultimately result in a
16.5 percent decrease.  Additional confirmation comes from British
studies which used three different computer models but nearly the
same set of supporting data.  They conclude that depletions could
range from 11 to 16 percent*03 w^th continued release at the 1975
rate.  The smallest observable change in ozone is thought to be about
5-6 percent after 10 years if emission levels remain constant at the
1977 rate.

     Observations

     Ozone concentrations have been observed for long periods from
ground-based stations in different parts of the world.  More recent-
ly, satellite observations have provided synoptic maps of ozone.  The
World Ozone Data Center, operated by the Canadian government and the
* ^Gribben, J., "Monitoring Halocarbons in the Atmosphere" New
   Scientist, Vol. 81, January 18, 1979, p. 164.
   National Academy of Sciences.  Stratospheric Ozone Depletions by
  ^Halocarbons;  Chemistry and Transport, Washington D.C., 1979.
1Q3"Ozone", Sciquest 53 No. 2, February 1980, p. 26.
                                 233

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World Meteorological Organization, has been in existence since
1958.     It serves as an archive of the ground station data.

5.4.7  Impacts and Implications

     The adverse effects of reduced stratospheric ozone will be glo-
bal in nature.  Changes in climate or in the level of ultraviolet
radiation at the ground may be brought about by the activities of the
rich and developed nations; those using chlorofluorocarbons, nitrogen
fertilizers, or high-flying aircraft.

     Human Health

     The biological effects of ozone depletion center on an increased
exposure of the biosphere to ultraviolet light in the wavelength
range of 280-315 nm (UV-B).     For small changes in ozone concen-
tration, the increase in UV-B radiation is about twice the decrease
in ozone.lO^  Two important health effects can be related to UV-B
exposure:  malignant melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancer.  Malig-
nant melanoma, a relatively rare, but 40 percent fatal skin cancer,
is correlated with UV-B exposure and proximity to the equator.

     Non-melanoma skin cancer is less dangerous but also shows corre-
lation with UV-B exposure and latitude.  Evidence for an increased
skin cancer incidence rate as a function of UV-B exposure is shown in
Figure 5-21 for both melanoma and non-melonoma.  The distribution of
incidence over the body is shown in Figure 5-22.  The correlation of
skin cancer with latitude is clearly shown in Figure 5-23.  Under in-
creased UV-B, it can ber expected that higher incidence of skin cancer
would occur, although the quantitative aspects of the problem are
subject to some debate.  The less severe phenomenon of sunburn is
also expected to increase.  In addition, eye damage may result, but
this remains an area of continued research.10'

     Constructing a cause-and-effeet relationship between ozone
depletion and skin cancer will not be easy.  The magnitude of the
            J., "Disappearing Threat to Ozone", New Scientist, Vol.
   81, February 15, 1979.  p. 474.  Also:  Parry, H.D. "Ozone
   Depletion by Chlorofluoromethanes?  Yet Another Look," Journal of
   Applied Meteorology, Vol. 16, November 1977, p. 1137.
   Council on Environmental Quality, Fluorocarbons and the Envi-
   ronment; Report of Federal Task Force on Inadvertent Modification
   of the Stratosphere (IMOS), June 1975.
                                 234
l°7Ibid.

-------
     5000
                                                  MALE 75-84 YEARS

                                                  FEMALE 75-84 YEARS
                                                  MALE 55-64 YEARS


                                                  FEMALE 55-64 YEARS
                                                  MALE 35-44 YEARS
                                                  FEMALE 3544 YEARS
                                                   MALE 75-84 YEARS

                                                  FEMALE 75-84 YEARS

                                                 MALE 55-64 YEARS
                                                 FEMALE 3544 YEARS


                                                 FEMALE 55-64 YEARS

                                                   MALE 3544 YEARS
               8     10     12     14     16
            EFFECTIVE UV FLUX AT 305.5 nm IN

            1015 PHOTONS m'2 sec'1 nm'1
            AVERAGED OVER THE YEAR.
      Note: The computations of uv flux used to prepare this figure are not adjusted for altitude.
Source:  Adapted from National  Academy of  Sciences,  Environmental
         Impact of Stratospheric Flight, Washington, D.C., 1975.

                            FIGURE 5-21
        REPORTED SKIN CANCER RATES AMONG WHITES VS.
                        ULTRAVIOLET FLUX
                                235

-------
Note: Of 840 basal cell skin cancers in the study, all but 74 or
    8.8% occured on the head and neck.
 Source:   Adapted  from National Academy of Sciences, Environmental
          Impact of  Stratospheric Flight,  Washington, D.C., 1975.
                              FIGURE 5-22
               LOCATION OF BASAL-CELLSKIN CANCERS
                   OF THE TORSO AND EXTREMITIES
                                   236

-------
   1,000
    500
  9
  h— «
  Q
  Z
  QlOO
  w
     50
   IE
   S 10
   td
   53
   td
    0.5
          MELANOMA INCIDENCE
              IN FEMALES
V"
                            MELANOMA INCIDENCE IN MALES
         MELANOMA MORTALITY
             IN MALES V
        MELANOMA MORTALITY
        7   IN FEMALES
                             I
                 30°
          35°
       LATITUDE
Source:  Adapted from Council on Environmental Quality, Fluorocarbons
        and the Environment:  Report of the Federal Task Force on
        Inadvertent Modification of the Stratosphere (IMPS),  June 1975.

                        FIGURE 5-23
      REPORTED SKIN CANCER RATES AMONG LIGHT SKINNED
           INDIVIDUALS AS A FUNCTION OF LATITUDE
                             237

-------
impact of increased UV-B exposure can be put in perspective by noting
that over a period when ozone has remained constant or increased
         •I C\Q
slightly,iuo the incidence of some types of skin cancer among
whites living in the Northern Hemisphere has jumped dramatically—
200 percent in some cases.109  This is apparently the result of
increased leisure time and more exposure to the sun.  It is well
known that residents of high-altitude cities, like Denver, are
exposed to proportionately higher ultraviolet radiation doses than
those living near sea level.  Yet, skin cancer fatality rates in
Denver are low when compared with the national average.^"

     Ecology

     Animals other than man suffer reactions to UV-B.  For example,
cattle exhibit increased sensitivity to infectious diseases whose
causal bacteria may be more vigorous in increased UV-B.  In addition,
increased UV-B could result in a small increase in cancerous eye
among some breeds of cattle.     The incidence of disease and
damage in areas of relatively high sunlight has been established and
used to extrapolate to the higher losses in livestock and revenue
that might result in farm areas over the globe*^ -j^f Ozone levels
were to decrease.

     Plant life also can be expected to react to increased UV-B in
               110            r
different ways.11J  Evidence exists for reactions ranging from mild
to considerable.  In experiments on large numbers of plants, about 20
percent showed sensitivity to daily doses of UV-B equivalent to the
intensity found at the present time in Florida.  A different group,
also about 20 percent of all of those plants tested, showed resis-
tance to doses four times as high.  The bulk of the plants (60
        ) H.D., "Ozone Depletion by Chlorofluoromethanes?  Yet
   Another Look," Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 16, November
   1977, p. 1137.
109Gribben, J., "Ozone Passion Cooled by the Breath of Sweet
   Reason," New Scientist, Vol. 80, October 12,  1978, p. 94.
110Gribben, J., "Disappearing Threat to Ozone," New Scientist, Vol.
   81, February 15, 1979, p. 474.
11 -^National Academy of Sciences, Protection Against Depletion of
   Stratospheric Ozone by Chlorofluorocarbons.  Washington D.C.,
   1979.
^Council on Environmental Quality, Fluorocarbons and the
   Environment:  Report of Federal Task Force on Inadvertent
   Modification of the Stratosphere (IMPS), June 1975.
                                238

-------
percent) showed sensitivity to the intervening levels of dosage.
What remains to be investigated is the effect of any possible long-
term exposure to sustained higher levels of UV-B radiation.

     Many other aspects of life in the biosphere have been shown to
be susceptible to damage from increased UV-B, such as marine organ-
isms, algae and phytoplankton.  Research is needed to study mechan-
isms and to assess the potential damage in these areas.

     Climatic Impacts

     Predicting possible climatic changes due to ozone depletion is
by no means a simple task.  It is suggested that ozone depletion
creates changes in tropospheric climate through changes in the heat-
ing of the stratosphere and radiation scattering by chlorofluorometh-
ane gases, aerosols and carbon doxide.  Other physical mechanisms
that may couple ozone reduction and climate include melting ice cover
by the increased UV-B radiation and possible changes of the average
global temperature. H5
11^National Academy of Science,  Protection Aganist Depletion of
   Stratospheric Ozone by Chlorofluorocarbons.Washington, B.C.,
   1979.
H^Maugh,  T. ,  II and A. Hammond, "The Effects of Ozone
   Depletion," Science, Vol.  186, October 25, 1974, p. 337.

                                239

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                             CHAPTER6
                       WATER POLLUTANTS;
                       HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 6

o  To meet national water quality goals, recent trends in the control
   of point source discharges of pollutants must be sustained, and
   more progress must be made in the control of non-point sources.

o  Industrial and municipal discharges of pollutants often are highly
   concentrated and localized.  Non-point discharges from sources
   such as agriculture and urban runoff are usually greater in over-
   all magnitude, but less concentrated.

o  The effects of the various pollutants on aquatic ecosystems and
   water quality are recognized, but the linkages between point and
   non-point discharges and the occurrence of these effects are not
   well understood.

o  Future trends in water pollution depend primarily upon the effi-
   cacy of environmental controls.  Should industrial or municipal
   compliance with regulations lag behind schedule, the relatively
   favorable forecasts of point source discharges presented in this
   chapter would not be achieved.  On the other hand, should the use
   of Best Management Practices become more widespread, the adverse
   trends in non-point discharges should be moderated.

o  The identification and control of toxic substances and pesticides
   in water are especially important concerns because of the signifi-
   cant impacts caused by even small concentrations of these sub-
   stances.

o  While a few industries, notably steel and electric utilities,  are
   typically identified as potential problems in terms of compliance
   with pollution control regulations, a number of industries are
   projected to accomplish substantial reductions in pollutant dis-
   charges.

6.1  INTRODUCTION

     In Chapter 4, sources of air pollutants were divided into
stationary and mobile sources.  A similar distinction can be made for
water pollutants.  Point sources are those industrial plants or muni-
cipal wastewater treatment facilities that generate and discharge
pollutants in their wastestreams from a pipe or other conduit.  Com-
bined sewer overflows from municipal wastewater treatment facilities,
                                 241

-------
storm sewer runoff, and confined animal feedlots are classified as
point sources.  Non-point sources are diffuse, and include agricul-
ture, sewered and unsewered stormwater runoff from urban areas,
mining, construction, silviculture, and stream modification and
natural background releases arising from land not disturbed by man's
activities.1  The distinction between point and non-point source
pollution is significant; their characters are different and they
pose different control problems.

     Point source discharges are usually concentrated and local, and
they can be controlled as the last step in an industrial process.
Federal regulations consequently aim at requiring specific treatment
technologies for each industry (technology-based standards).  Non-
point discharges, on the other hand, are more widespread and greater
in overall magnitude than point source discharges.  They are usually
less concentrated, and can be highly variable during dry and wet
weather flow periods.  Even during storm events, non-point discharges
can vary, since much of the pollution occurs with the first appreci-
able rainfall.  Thus, control of non-point sources can be very diffi-
cult.  They are not usually subject to effluent guidelines.  EPA's
approach to non-point source control is to promote sound land manage-
ment practices and comprehensive land use planning.

     Water quality is monitored by state water quality agencies, EPA
and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).  Other sources of information
include individual state 305 (b) water quality inventory reports,
individual state basin plans and 208 reports and Regional Environ-
mental Annual Reports.  Using information from individual states, EPA
reported in  1978 that 95 percent of the 246 hydrological basins in
the country  were "affected" by water pollution.   A basin was said
to be "affected" if a state reported that a stream segment within the
basin had a problem with a pollutant that was not "minor or insigni-
ficant."-^

     The U.S. Geological Survey's National Stream Quality Accounting
Network (NASQAN)^ has produced uniform annual water quality data
^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Methods for Identifying and
 Evaluating the Nature and Extent of Nonpoint Sources of Pollutants,
 EPA 430/9-73-014, Washington, D.C. , October 1973, p. 1.
^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
 Inventory:  1977 Report to Congress, U.S. Government Printing
 Office, Washington, D.C., 1978.  Personal communication, Alec
 MacBride, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water
 Planning and Standards.
^Ficke, J.T. and R.O. Hawkinson, The National Stream Quality
 Accounting Network (NASQAN) - Some Questions and Answers, Circular
 719, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va., 1975.

                                  242

-------
 since  1974.   Although  NASQAN  data  are  not  directly comparable with
 the  EPA data  cited  above,  both  demonstrate the same widespread nature
 of water pollution  problems in  the United  States.  The results of an
 analysis of the  changes  in the  NASQAN  data over the 1975-1977 period
 are  reported  in  Table  6-1.  Despite  the  tentative nature of this
 analysis,  the results  indicate  that  there has been more improvement
 than deterioration  with  respect  to zinc, fecal coliform bacteria, and
 dissolved  oxygen, while  dissolved  solids, nitrogen, phosphorus, fecal
 streptococci  bacteria, and phytoplankton (algae) showed more deterio-
 ration  than improvement.5

     Further  tests  on  these plus additional data from EPA's STORET
 data system have recently  been  performed by the Office of Water
 Planning and  Standards for dissolved oxygen, phosphorus and zinc.
 Comparing  ambient concentrations of  dissolved oxygen and phosphorus
 on a regional basis between 1971-72  and  1977-78, they have found that
 dissolved  oxygen levels  have  improved  in the Northeast, Great Lakes
 and  South, but have degraded  in  the West and Mid-Atlantic Regions.
 Phosphorus concentrations, contrary  to the analysis of the NASQAN
 data cited above, have been found to be lower or unchanged in all
 monitored  regions.  Although  results are more tentative for zinc,
 using data for the years 1973-74 and 1977-78, most monitoring
 stations have generally  detected lower concentrations of this metal
 in the  later time period.

     This  chapter addresses trends in water quality associated with
 the  discharge of selected pollutants to surface waters from point
 sources  and then, selected non-point sources.  Section 6.4 discusses
 overall  implications of both  point and selected non-point source
 pollution trends for future water quality.  A major limitation of this
 chapter  is the incomplete coverage of toxic substances as they affect
 water quality.  This incompleteness stems from a lack of data to base
 projections on.  Changes in the physical characteristics of stream
 ecosystems, which can destroy aquatic habitats no matter how good
water quality is, and which result from land use activities (such as
 agriculture, silviculture,  mining, and construction), are also not
presented in this chapter.   The Office of Research and Development is
funding research in this important area.

     Throughout this chapter,  emphasis has been placed on trends in
 pollutant discharges and water quality.  Specific estimates of
discharge quantities should be regarded as approximations rather than
predictions since we are aware that most of them are subject to
systematic under or overestimation (as discussed in each subsection).
^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality;  The
 Ninth Annual Report of the Council on Environmental Quality, U.S.
 Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,  1978, pp. 96, 98.
                                 243

-------
                             TABLE 6-1
             WATER QUALITY CHANGES3 AT NASQAN  STATIONS
                           1975 to 1977

                                      Percent of Stations
Water Quality
Characteristics
Fecal Coliform Bacteria
Inorganic Nitrogen
Organic Nitrogen
Total Phosphorus
Dissolved Oxygen
Fecal Streptococci
Bacteria
Dissolved Solids
Dissolved Zinc
Total Zinc
Phytoplankton

Improved
7
6
4
4
6

2
4
9
13
2

No Change
89
87
83
83
93

87
74
87
86
94

Deteriorated
4
3
13
13
3

11
22
4
1
4
 Indications of change tested for statistical significance at the
 90 percent level.

NASQAN = National Stream Quality Accounting Network, U.S. Geological
         Survey.

SOURCE:  Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality:
         The Ninth Annual Report of the Council on Environmental
         Quality, U.S.  Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,
         1978,  p.  96.
                                244

-------
Despite this, we are confident of the direction and general magnitude
of the trends described, and suggest that these are most important in
any case.  Planned improvement of the data base used to develop these
projections is expected to reduce the uncertainty attached to
estimates of pollutant quantity during the next several years.

6.2  POINT SOURCE POLLUTANTS

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.2

o  Point source discharges of pollutants affect 90 percent of the
   drainage basins in the United States.

o  "Conventional" pollutants—biochemical oxygen demand, suspended
   solids, fecal coliform bacteria, and pH—are controlled by
   industry-specific treatment regulations.  A reasonable level of
   control of these pollutants will be achieved if there is a high
   degree of compliance with the regulations.

o  Discharges of toxic and certain other pollutants from point
   sources are subject to more stringent standards.  Projected trends
   in abatement of these substances are even more favorable than for
   conventional pollutants, assuming compliance is achieved.

o  Discharges of dissolved solids and nitrogen are projected to
   increase between 1975 and 2000.

o  Several anticipated process changes by industry are expected to
   cause reductions in discharges.

o  Regions with the greatest increases in population and economic
   output are projected to have the greatest increases in the genera-
   tion of pollutants and may therefore face the most difficult con-
   trol problems.  This is most marked in the Southeast and South
   Central Regions (Federal Regions IV and VI).

6.2.1  Introduction

     Problem Definition and Regulatory Background

     Recent statistics show that over 90 percent of EPA-designated
hydrological drainage basins in the United States are affected by
point source discharges, although the nature and degree of impacts
vary considerably across the country.**  For example, the extent of
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality Inven-
 tory:  1977 Report to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, U.S. Government
 Printing Office, Washington, D.C., October 1978.

                                 245

-------
water quality problems associated with industrial discharges is
illustrated in Figure 6-1.  These problems are most severe in the
Northeast and Great Lakes areas of the country where heavy industry
is centered.  There, almost 90 percent of the drainage basins are
affected by industrial discharges.  In contrast, about a quarter of
the basins in the Southwest are affected.  Water quality problems
resulting from municipal wastewater discharges occur most often in
more heavily populated areas, but affect sparsely settled areas as
well.  As a result, pollution from municipal treatment plants affects
almost 90 percent of the nation's drainage basins across the country.
The point source water pollution problems experienced in each
geographical region are summarized in Table 6-2.

     Control of point source discharges was mandated by Congress
through the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments (FWPCA) of
1972 and the Clean Water Act of 1977.7  The FWPCA, which set the
objective of eliminating discharges of pollutants into the nation's
waters by 1985, required that all point source discharges meet
effluent standards based on specific treatment techniques.  Indus-
trial dischargers were to adopt "best practicable control technology
currently available" (BPT) by July 1, 1977, and "best available
technology economically achievable" (BAT) by July 1, 1983.  Municipal
dischargers were required to apply secondary treatment to sewage by
July 1, 1977, and "best practicable waste treatment technology"
(BPWTT) by 1983.  These technology-based standards were to apply
regardless of receiving water quality unless they were not stringent
enough to meet EPA approved state water quality standards.  If the
latter condition prevailed, the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
Amendments of 1965** require the imposition of more stringent
effluent controls upon point sources discharging to those waters.

     The Clean Water Act of 1977 contained a number of compromises on
controlling industrial discharges and extended compliance deadlines.
BAT standards for "conventional pollutants" (four are defined) were
superceded by "best conventional pollution control technology" (BCT)
requirements, which Congress intended to be no less stringent than
BPT and no more stringent than BAT requirements.  For other than con-
ventional pollutants, BAT was to be implemented within three years
from the date when limitations were established by the Agency, or by
July 1, 1984, whichever was later, but in no case later than July 1,
1987.  For these pollutants, a discharger could be allowed a variance
or modification of BAT standards, if the discharger demonstrated that
 ?Clean Water Act of  1977, 33 USC  1252 et seq. (1978 Suppl.).
 ^Federal Water Pollution Control  Act Amendments of 1965, 33 USC
  1151 et seq. (1978  Suppl.).
                                 2A6

-------
NOTE:   Basins where some  (or all) stream segments have a problem with  pollution
       from industrial sources that is not minor or insignificant,  according to
       state officials.   Affected basins are shaded.

Source:  U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality Inventory-
         1977  Report  to  Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, U.S. Government Printing
         Office, Washington, B.C.,  October  1978, p. 10.

                                 FIGURE 6-1
              EPA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
                    AFFECTED BY INDUSTRIAL DISCHARGES
                                    1977

-------
                 TABLE 6-2
WATER POLLUTION IMPACTS FROM POINT SOURCES
                   1977
         Percent of Basins  Affected  by Pollution from Point  Sources
Geographical
Region53
Northeast
Southeast
Great Lakes
North Central
to
£ South Central
CO
Southwest
Northwest
Islands
Total
a
Basins where
officials .
b
Number
of
Basins
40
47
41
35

30
22
22
9
246

some (or

Oxygen
Suspended Dissolved
Thermal Bacteria Depletion Nutrients Solids Solids
33
11
24
11

3
5
0
33
15

93
77
80
89

73
50
68
89
78

93
89
85
80

87
36
55
78
79

all) stream segments have

Note that the regional drainage
in the discharge trends analysis
SOURCE: U.S.
/, /, n / /,

basin
Environmental Protection
7Q nm TT c r<~~, ~ ^_

groupings
78
70
71
74

83
41
55
56
69

70
26
44
23

30
14
23
33
35

a problem that is not

used here do
Agency, National Water

13
9
27
20

30
23
5
11
17

Oil
and Heavy
pH Grease Metals
15
17
24
14

10
5
5
0
14

35
6
34
0

13
5
0
44
16

minor or insignificant,


not coniform precisely to the
Quality
Inventory: 1977

10
58
36
51
57

43
9
5
22
38

according

Nonmetal
Toxics
43
28
59
23

7
5
14
11
28

to state

Federal Regions used
Report to Congress
, EPA

-------
no adverse water quality effects would result.  The Clean Water Act
also authorized EPA to extend compliance deadlines for municipal sew-
age facilities, on a discretionary basis, up to July 1, 1983.

     The four "conventional" water pollutants (to which BCT standards
apply) defined by the Act are biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), total
suspended solids, fecal coliform bacteria, and pH.  EPA has since
proposed that chemical oxygen demand (COD), phosphorus, and oil and
grease be classified as conventional pollutants,'

     Compliance with revised Federal pollution control regulations is
expected to significantly reduce pollution by the mid-1980s.  How-
ever, municipal dischargers are still expected to release substantial
levels of pollutants in many areas even after best practicable waste
treatment technology (BPWTT) is implemented.  A discussion of the
implications for solid waste generation from municipal and industrial
sources by more complete treatment of wastewaters occurs in Chapter
10.  Non-point sources are expected to grow in relative significance
during the same period.  Expected trends in non-point source water
pollution and their implications for water quality are discussed in
Section 6.3 of this chapter.

     Recently, EPA has started to focus its attention upon toxic
pollutants.  Heightened awareness of toxic chemical problems is
reflected in the 1977 Clean Water Act, which requires BAT standards
by 1984 for 65 named classes of toxic chemicals.10  Because the
problems associated with toxic pollutants have only recently
attracted attention, there is a considerable void in the literature,
and, as a result, developing reliable data on present and future dis-
charges of toxic pollutants is extremely difficult.  Although the
seriousness of toxic water pollution is recognized, a discussion of
those pollutants is not included in the major section of this chapter
because of the incomplete data.  Instead, a less comprehensive
analysis of toxic pollutants is undertaken in Section 6.2.8.

     National and regional trends in the quantities of water pollut-
ants generated and the quantities discharged are presented for point
sources in terms of "gross generation" and "net discharge."  The term
 9"Identification of Conventional Pollutants," Final action,
  Federal Register, Vol. 44, No. 147, July 30, 1979, p. 44501.
^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality;  The
  Ninth Annual Report of the Council on Environmental Quality, U.S.
  Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,  1978, pp. 96, 98.
                                 249

-------
gross generation refers to the pollutants produced by point sources
and present in the untreated wastewaters of industrial plants and the
untreated influent to sewage treatment plants.  The term net dis-
charge refers to the pollutants in effluent even after full treatment
to the standards required by law.  (For non-point sources, where pol-
lutants are not given specific wastewater treatment by methods like
those used for point sources, the distinction between generation and
discharges often does not apply.)

     Although some degree of treatment is expected for all the
pollutants identified in the following sections, it is unlikely that
full treatment will be reached for any one of them.  As a result, the
levels of generation and discharge of pollutants should be read with
caution.  The corresponding values for the two parameters are
intended as a range within which levels of discharges will fall
according to the actual degree of attainment with BCT or BAT
standards.  This, however, is not factored into scenario projections.
Nor do projections account for likely regional and sectional
variations in compliance schedules because of capital stock or
manufacturing process differences, economic, environmental or
physical background conditions, locally mandated water quality
limitations which are more strict than national standards, or other
contingencies which affect discharge levels.

     In order to assess the reliability of the SEAS estimates of
water pollutants, a comparison was made between SEAS and data devel-
oped by the National Accounting and Environment (NAE) project11 and
the Draft 1977 Cost of Clean Water report.12  These comparisons
indicate that total water pollution discharges (aggregated over all
point sources) for each criteria pollutant are likely to be under-
estimated because not all industries are covered in SEAS, and because
there may be underestimates in covered industries.

     Relevant Scenario Assumptions

     Point source pollution is usually associated with heavy indus-
tries such as steel,  chemicals, pulp and paper, and food processing,
and with municipal sewage treatment.   Electric utilities are also
significant dischargers of some conventional pollutants.  Water
quality projections are therefore influenced by the population and
^Gianessi, L.D. and H.M.  Peskin, A Comparison of Recent National
  Estimates, Discussion Paper D/2, Resources for the Future,
  Washington, D.C.,  February 1977.
12Battelle Columbus  Laboratories, Draft 1977 Cost of Clean Water,
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., 1977.
                                250

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economic growth assumptions that define the High and Low Growth
Scenarios.

     Projections of economic output by the major industrial sources
of water pollution are shown in Table 6-3.  Industrial expansion is
expected in both scenarios, particularly in the organic chemicals and
aluminum industries.  Population growth is also expected, and would
increase the amount of sewage to be treated by municipal facilities.
This latter trend is reinforced in both scenarios through greater
centralization of sewage treatment facilities.  The increasing per-
centage of the population served by municipal facilities over the
1975 to 2000 period is shown in Table 6-4.   Although greater cen-
tralization of sewage treatment increases discharges from point
sources, it would reduce water quality problems associated with
individual disposal systems.^^  The net effects of these trends are
uncertain, because discharges from individual systems are not pro-
jected by SEAS.

     The economic expansion indicated in Table 6-3 would slow after
1985.  With the exception of meat products processing, the average
annual growth rates of output for these industries for the 1975 to
1985 period exceed the growth rates for the 1985 to 2000 period.
Thus initial compliance with guidelines would be achieved during a
period of relatively rapid industrial growth.

     Process changes expected in the production of steel and pulp and
paper affect the environmental projections significantly.  The major
process change assumed in the pulp and paper industry is from the
production of bleached kraft pulp to unbleached kraft, which will
reduce discharges of oxygen-demanding material.  We have assumed that
open-hearth furnaces will be phased out by the steel industry by
2000.  This production is expected to be supplanted by basic oxygen
furnaces (EOF) and electric arc furnaces.  Furthermore, by 2000, 5
percent of domestic steel production is anticipated to be from direct
reduction methods (see Table 6-5).

     These process changes are important because wastewater charac-
teristics associated with each process vary.  Greater production of
steel using "cleaner" technologies can be expected to reduce the
quantity of dissolved and suspended solids in the raw wastestreams of
steelmaking facilities.
-10
iJU.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
  Inventory:  1977 Report to Congress, U.S. Government Printing
  Office, Washington, D.C., October 1978, p. 22.
                                251

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Ln
N3
                                                    TABLE 6-3
                                        PROJECTED OUTPUT AND GROWTH RATES
                                   FOR MAJOR POINT SOURCES OF WATER POLLUTION

                                                1975, 1985, 2000

                                     (BILLIONS OF 1971 DOLLARS UNLESS NOTED)

                                               High Growth Scenario
Low Growth Scenario
Average Annual
Growth Rate
(Percent)
Source
Aluminum
Asphalt
Electric Utilities
Meat Processing
Pulp and Paper
Steel
Textiles
Inorganic Chemicals
o
Organic Chemicals
Municipal Sewage
1975
$ 8.1
2.0
35.0
32.5
18.5
33.5
32.8
160
60
160
1985
$14.8
3.6
60.7
35.3
31.7
44.4
54.2
250
110
190
2000
$28.5
5.0
89.3
45.3
47.0
50.8
85.9
380
190
230
1975-85
6.2
6.1
5.6
0.8
5.5
2.9
5.2
4.5
6.9
1.6
1985-2000
4
2
2
2
2
0
5
7
3
1
.5
.3
.6
.5
.7
.9
.0
.0
.5
.4
1985
$13.
3.
56.
33.
28.
41.
43.
220
100
180
6
3
8
4
0
9
1



2000
$25.2
4.4
83.3
40.1
37.9
45.9
60.0
320
150
220
Average Annual
Growth Rate
(Percent)
1975-85
5.3
5.4
5.0
0.3
4.3
2.3
2.8
3.3
5.6
1.3
1985-2000
4.2
1.9
2.6
1.8
2.0
0.9
2.2
6.4
2.9
1.1
     In millions of tons.
     In millions of population served.

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                              TABLE 6-4
              U.S. POPULATION AND POPULATION SERVED BY
                   MUNICIPAL TREATMENT FACILITIES
                          1975, 1985, 2000
                             (MILLIONS)
Population

Population Served by
Municipal Wastewater
Treatment Facilities

Percentage of
Population Served
                       1975
    213
    161
     75
                                   High Growth
             1985
234
188
 81
         2000
162
232
 88
                                   Low Growth
         1985
228
184
 81
         2000
245
217
                              TABLE 6-5
                 TRENDS IN STEELMAKING TECHNOLOGIES
                              (PERCENT)
                    	Technology
Production Share

In 1975

In 1985

 High Growth
 Low Growth

In 2000

 High Growth
 Low Growth
Open Hearth  Basic Oxygen   Electric Arc

    24            57            20
     9
     6
    66
    65
                  68
                  62
        25
        29
                  27
                  38
                                                                  Size
                                                               Reduction
                                253

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     Projections analyzed in this chapter depend upon assumptions
concerning compliance with effluent standards by industrial and
municipal sources.  They are based on the compliance deadlines pro-
vided in the FWPCA Amendments of 1972, and do not incorporate the
changes to standards and deadlines approved in the Clean Water Act of
1977.  All industrial point source dischargers are assumed to have
met BPT standards, and all municipal dischargers are assumed to have
applied secondary treatment to sewage, by the mandated 1977 deadline.
However, the imposition of BAT standards on industrial effluents is
assumed in projections to lag two years behind the 1983 deadline set
in the 1972 Act.  Industrial point sources are therefore assumed to
comply with BAT standards by 1985.

     Projections discussed in this chapter are susceptible to error
if compliance schedules change or if final BCT limitations deviate
from estimated BAT standards.  Delays in compliance by industrial and
municipal sources would mean that projected discharges in the 1985
benchmark year are underestimated.

     EPA monitoring activities found that 14 percent of major
industrial dischargers did not achieve BPT, and 66 percent of
municipal treatment facilities did not apply secondary treatment to
sewage, by the mandated deadline of July 1, 1977.1^  Although
interim and/or final guidelines for BCT (conventional pollutants) and
BAT (toxic pollutants) are still scheduled to conform to dates
mandated in the 1977 Act, litigation or economic impact analyses
could delay implementation or enforcement of standards.  The
likelihood of such delays, however, cannot be established.  SEAS
assumptions about industrial and municipal compliance should be
considered optimistic, and since BCT standards will fall within the
range of BPT and BAT, SEAS projections of the amount of pollutant
removed (based on BAT) should also be considered optimistic.  On the
other hand, the application of water quality-based standards in some
areas may cause SEAS projections of pollutant removal to be
overstated.

     In summary, assumptions concerning compliance with effluent
limitations guidelines used in the scenario projections do not
incorporate changes decreed in the Clean Water Act of 1977.  Given
potential delays in compliance and redefinition of standards, SEAS
discharge projections must be considered uncertain and are probably
optimistic. Awareness of this potential bias should be maintained
throughout the following water pollution analyses.
^Council on Environmental Quality.  Environmental Quality — 1977.
  U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C., December, 1977,
  p. 36.
                                 254

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     Data Sources and Quality

     The analysis of point source water pollution discharges in this
chapter is based upon data derived primarily from EPA Development
Documents for Proposed Effluent Limitations Guidelines.^  These
data are supplemented, where necessary, by industry reports prepared
for the National Commission on Water Quality as part of its study of
the costs and capabilities of water pollution abatement technolo-
gies,16 the Costs of Clean Water reports prepared for EPA,17 and
studies conducted by private industry.  In addition, water pollution
discharge data for municipal sewage treatment plants are derived from
the 1976 EPA Needs Survey.18

     A comparison of SEAS 1975 estimates with data developed by the
NAE Project19 and the Draft 1977 Cost of Clean Water report20
showed that not all industrial categories that discharge significant
quantities of conventional water pollutants are considered in SEAS.
For example, for 56 industrial categories in the NAE database that
were consistent with SEAS sector definitions, and for four of the
pollutants considered in this chapter, 30 percent of all dischargers
classified by NAE were not considered by SEAS (Table 6-6).  Even
where the same industries were considered, NAE-estimated discharges
are as much as 12 times SEAS estimates for certain pollutants.

     These findings should be interpreted with some caution.  The NAE
project was somewhat inconsistent in its estimation methods; in some
^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Development Document for
  Effluent Limitations Guidelines and New Source Performance Stan-
  dards , Series 440, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
  D.C.
16See, for example, Lee, W.L., R.A. Leone, and C. Smith, The
  Economic Impact of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act
  Amendments of 1972 on the. Nonferrous Metals Industry, National
  Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., New York, June 15, 1978.
17U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Economics of Clean Water,
  1972, Washington, D.C., 1972.
1®u7sT Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water Program
  Operations, 1976 Needs Survey:  Cost Estimates for Construction of
  Publicly-Owned Wastewater Treatment Facilities, Washington, D.C.,
  February 1977.
19Gianessi, L.D. and H.M. Peskin, A Comparison of Recent National
  Estimates, Discussion Paper D-2, Resources for the Future,
  Washington, D.C., February 1977.
20Battelle Columbus Laboratories, Draft 1977 Cost of Clean Water,
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., 1977.
                                 255

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NJ
Ul
                                                     TABLE 6-6
                           COMPARISON OF INDUSTRY COVERAGE BETWEEN COMPATIBLE INDUSTRIES
                                     IN SEAS AND NAE DATA BASES, BY POLLUTANT
              Pollutants
         (1)

Number of Industries
  Where SEAS Has
 Nonzero Estimate
         (2)

Number of Industries
Where NAE Estimate is
Nonzero or Nonneglible
         (3)

Percent of Industries
Unaccounted for by SEAS
     (2 - 1) * (2)
Biochemical Oxygen Demand
Suspended Solids
Oil and Grease
Dissolved Solids
31
34
22
29
45
56
26
56
31
30
3ia
48
      NAE - National Accounting and Environment Project
      aPercent of industries where SEAS or NAE has nonzero estimate  (32)

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industries industry-wide data were gathered, while in others only
data for specific plants were considered.  Also, the base year used
in the NAE analysis predates the 1975 base year of SEAS by three
years.  Thus, discharge estimates by industrial category might differ
to some extent between SEAS and NAE because the more recent data in
SEAS reflect at least partial compliance with BPT standards by indus-
try and secondary treatment of sewage by municipalities, and because
of different levels of output in the two years.

     In general, the comparison between SEAS and the NAE project data
suggests that total water pollution discharges (aggregated over all
point sources) for each criteria pollutant are likely to be under-
estimated to some degree because of industrial undercoverage in SEAS
and, possibly, underestimates in covered industries.

     Organization of Discussion

     The following section presents projected national and regional
trends for six water pollutants:  biochemical oxygen demand, sus-
pended solids, dissolved solids, nitrogen, phosphorus, and oil and
grease.  These pollutants are analyzed because they are considered to
be basic water quality indicators, because they are among the largest
contributors to water quality problems, and because projections of
these pollutants are based upon the most reliable water pollution
data currently in SEAS.  Toxic pollutants receive separate treatment
in Section 6.2.8 and in Chapter 11.

      For each water pollutant, national trends in the quantities
generated by productive and consumptive activities classified as
point sources, and the quantities then discharged to surface waters
after wastewater treatment, are discussed.  Pollutants "generated" by
point sources are those which exist in wastewaters before being sub-
ject to treatment, and their introduction into wastestreams is
referred to throughout the section as "gross generation."  Pollutants
that would be discharged in effluents even after full treatment to
the standards required by law are referred to as "net discharges."
There is often a wide difference between "gross generation" and "net
discharge" estimates for a pollutant, which will not be realized
unless full compliance occurs.  To provide a better indication of the
amount of pollutants reaching natural streams, the concept of "inter-
mediate discharges" has been used.  This is the level of pollutants
                                257

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in effluent after treatment, if removal efficiencies were to remain
at their 1975 levels.21

     Following the discussions of the six pollutants defined above,
selected toxic and non-toxic pollutants are analyzed.  Alternative
data sources have been used for this, since reliable projections are
not available in SEAS.  A summary section for point source water
pollution projections concludes this part of the chapter.

6.2.2  Biochemical Oxygen Demand

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.2.2

o  Municipal treatment plants are the major sources of BOD.   In 1975,
   it is estimated that municipal plants accounted for 53 percent of
   all point discharges of BOD.  This proportion is expected to
   increase to 85 percent by 2000.

o  The pulp and paper industry and, to a lesser extent, the meat
   processing, organic chemicals, sugar, and fruit and vegetable
   processing industries are other sources of BOD discharges.

o  The gross generation of BOD is expected to increase in all
   regions, with the Southeast, Great Lakes, and South Central
   Regions (Federal Regions IV, V, and VI) experiencing the greatest
   increases.

o  BOD discharges following treatment are expected to decline in all
   regions.

     Introduction
     Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) is a measure of oxygen-demanding
matter in water.  Materials which may contribute to BOD include
carbonaceous organic materials usable as a food source by aerobic
organisms; oxidizable nitrogen derived from nitrites, ammonia and
organic nitrogen compounds that serve as food for specific bacteria;
       approach will result in some overestimation of discharges
  released by point sources, since there is a pronounced trend toward
  compliance by major industries.  In July 1977, 30 percent of major
  facilities with NPDES permits were in violation of guidelines, but
  this declined to 14 percent as of June 1979.   The "intermediate
  discharges" are not meant to be a prediction of actual discharge
  levels, but rather are presented as probable upper bounds to
  discharge levels in effluent, just as "net discharges" are likely
  lower bounds.
                                 258

-------
and certain other oxidizable materials such as ferrous iron, sul-
fides, and sulfite, which react with dissolved oxygen or are metabo-
lized by bacteria.

     The biochemical oxygen demand of wastewater exerts an adverse
effect upon the dissolved oxygen resources of a body of water by
reducing the oxygen available to fish, plant life, and other aquatic
organisms.  The manner in which organic materials present in water
are decomposed in the absence of sufficient dissolved oxygen leads to
the formation of noxious gases, such as hydrogen sulfide, which in
turn causes sludge beds to float.  This can degrade the aesthetic
quality of the water body and reduce its usefulness for recreation.

     Insufficient dissolved oxygen in drinking water supplies may
adversely affect water taste by promoting the chemical reduction and
subsequent leaching of iron and manganese from sediments.
Removal of these metals during water treatment imposes additional
cost upon municipalities.

     BOD Discharge Trends

     BOD is reported as 5-day BOD (BOD5), which is the most widely
used parameter of organic pollution applied to both wastewater and
ambient water quality.  6005 is a measure of the amount of dis-
solved oxygen consumed through biochemical oxidation during a 5-day
incubation period at 20°C.

      General Trends.  The generation of BOD is projected to increase
substantially between 1975 and 2000.  From estimated 1975 gross gen-
eration of almost 9 million tons, annual BOD generation is projected
to increase to over 15 million tons by 2000 in the High Growth Scen-
ario.  In the Low Growth Scenario, gross generation is expected to
increase more slowly, approaching 13 million tons annually by 2000.
As seen in Table 6-7, which shows gross BOD generation by industry,
municipal sewage was the greatest BOD source in 1975.   Further,
generation of BOD by municipal wastewater treatment facilities is
expected to increase by 1.3 percent per year between 1975 and 2000 in
the High Growth Scenario.  This increase is attributable to popula-
tion growth and greater centralization of sewage treatment.
 2u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, The Control of Pollution
  from Hydrographic Modifications, EPA 430/9-73-017, U.S.  Government
  Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1973.
   .S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water and
  Hazardous Materials, Quality Criteria for Water, Washington, D.C.,
  July 1976.
   etcalf and Eddy, Inc., Wastewater Engineering, McGraw-Hill, New
  York, New York, 1972, pp. 241-242.

                                 259

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                                               TABLE 6-7
                            GROSS BOD GENERATION BY SELECTED INDUSTRY GROUPS
                                             1975 AND 2000
                                    (THOUSANDS OF TONS UNLESS NOTED)


                             1975                                  2000
High Growth Scenario
Percent
of
Industry
Municipal Wastewater
Treatment Facilities
Fulp and Paper
ho
ON
Mont: Processing
Sugar
Fruit and Vegetable
Processing
Organic Chemicals
Other
Total
Generation
3,760
1,740
820
530
420
390
1,150
8,840
Total
43
20
9
6
5
4
13
100
Generation
5,250
3,540
1,210
590
1,170
1,010
2,470
15,420
Percent
of
Total
34
23
8
4
8
7
16
100
Low Growth .Scenario
Percent
of
1975
140
203
147
113
281
262
215
174
Generation
4 , 940
2,760
1,070
510
1,040
810
1,830
13,070
Percent
of
Total
38
21
9
4
8
6
14
100
Percent
of
1975
131
158
129
96
250
210
159
148
Scenario
r\
Difference
(percent)
- 6
-22
-12
-15
-11
-20
-26
-15
aScenario difference is  (Low Growth - High Growth) * High Growth.

 Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.

-------
     In contrast to the growth in BOD generation, net discharges of
BOD are projected to decline between 1975 and 2000 in both scenarios.
From a 1975 estimate of almost 3 million tons, annual net BOD dis-
charges are projected to decline by an average of 0.6 percent per
year in the High Growth Scenario (see Table 6-8).  This decline is
attributable solely to projected improvements in effluent quality
achieved between 1975 and 1985.  These improvements would be brought
about by compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by indus-
trial and municipal point sources.  If such compliance is assumed,
annual net BOD discharges under High Growth conditions would be
halved by 1985.  Between 1985 and 2000, however, annual net dis-
charge levels are projected to resume increasing because of further
population and economic growth, to about 1.8 million tons in the High
Growth Scenario and slightly over 1.6 million tons in the Low Growth
Scenario.

     The divergence of trends in gross generation and net discharges
is caused by BOD removal over and above the degree of treatment in
1975.  If compliance with the FWPCA Amendments of 1972 and the Clean
Water Act of 1977 lagged behind schedule, the trend toward reduced
net discharges would be less equivalent.  Net discharges could, in
fact, show a steady increase.  An upper bound on actual discharges
has been estimated by applying the degree of abatement estimated for
1975 to projected gross BOD generation.  As mentioned previously, the
resulting upper bound estimate is termed "intermediate discharges."
Figure 6-2 shows the estimated gross and net discharges in 1975 and
projected gross, intermediate, and net discharges in 1985 and 2000
under the High Growth Scenario by region and for the nation.  Noncom-
pliance by industrial sources or municipal wastewater treatment
facilities could greatly affect the amount of BOD discharged in each
region.

     Analysis of Trends in BOD.  The national trends in BOD dis-
charges reflect primarily developments in municipal wastewater treat-
ment and several industrial sources.  The main sources of gross gen-
eration and net discharges for the nation in 1975 and 2000 are shown
in Figure 6-3.  Regional trends in BOD reflect the regional distribu-
tions of these sources.

     Full compliance with the FWPCA Amendments of 1972 and Clean
Water Act of 1977 requires at least secondary treatment of all munic-
ipal treatment facilities by July.l 1983.  The 1985 projections are
predicated on full compliance and reflect at least 85 percent removal
of BOD from the raw sewage entering municipal facilities.  The
treatment of municipal wastewater usually follows two steps: primary,
which is physical in nature; and secondary, which is biological in
nature.  If further (tertiary) treatment is needed, a series of
additional processes can be applied.  Primary treatment begins with

                                 261

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ho
                                                      TABLE 6-8
                                    NET BOD DISCHARGES BY SELECTED INDUSTRY GROUPS
                                                  1975 AND 2000
                                          (THOUSANDS OF TONS UNLESS NOTED)

                                    1975                                 2000
High Growth Scenario
Industry
Municipal Wastewater
Treatment Facilities
Pulp and Paper
Meat Processing
Sugar
Fruit and Vegetable
Processing
Organic Chemicals
Other
Totalb
Discharges
1,510
730
130
80
70
100
220
2,840
Percent
of
Total
53
26
5
3
2
4
8
100
Discharges
1,290
270
10
0
70
10
110
1,760
Percent
of
Total
73
15
1
0
4
1
6
100
Percent
of
1975
85
37
11
0
97
14
48
62
Low Growth Scenario
Discharges
1,210
210
10
0
60
10
80
1,580
Percent
of
Total
77
13
1
0
4
1
5
100
Percent
of
1975
80
28
10
0
86
11
36
56
Scenario
r\
Difference
(percent)
- 6
-22
-13
0
-11
-21
-26
-10
      f>
       Scenario difference  is (Low Growth - High Growth) -s- High Growth.


       Rounding may  create  inconsistencies in addition.

-------
  3.5H
  3.0-
  2.5-
z
o
H
  2.0-
e
i—(
H
o-
  1.5-
  1.0-
  0.5-
        Gross Discharges
                                                                     1975 1985 2000
       1975 1985 2000
1975 1985 2000
            1975  1985 2000
                         1975 1985 2000
                                                         1975 1985 2000
                                 REGION III
                                   Middle
                                  Atlantic
                          REGION IV
                          Southeast
 REGION V
Great Lakes
  REGION VI
South Central
 REGION I
New England
REGION II
New York -
New Jersey
                                    FIGURE 6-2
             GROSS, INTERMEDIATE, AND NET BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN
                     DEMAND (BOD) DISCHARGES, BY REGION
                             HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                  1975,1985,2000
                                      263

-------
   3.5 -
   3.0 -
  2.5 -
o
H
H
1—(
H
2.0 -
   1.5 -
   1.0
  0.5 -
                                                                15-
                                                             §
                                                             H
                                                             £
                                                             M
                                                             H
                                                             CD
                                                             o-
                                                             10-
                                                                 5 -
                                                                    1975 1985 2000
                                                                      National
                                   FIGURE 6-2
                                  CONTINUED
                                        264

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         1975 GROSS
                                          2000 GROSS
               1975 NET
                                      2000 NET
* There  is a scale change between 1975 Gross  and  1975 Net.

         Municipal Treatment Plants   LJ Meat Processing

         Pulp and Paper              Ej Fruits & Vegetables

                                  HJ Organic Chemicals
                                                Sugar
Other
                            FIGURE 6-3
                   GROSS AND NET DISCHARGES
    OF BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND (BOD), BY INDUSTRY GROUP
                     HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                           1975 AND 2000
                               265

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screening to remove grit; the wastewater then passes through sedi-
mentation tanks where smaller solids settle out.   Secondary treat-
ment normally involves biological decomposition of the remaining
suspended or dissolved organic matter; a settling tank removes the
remaining solids from the wastestream; and the water is treated with
a disinfectant and discharged to a watercourse.  Tertiary treatment
often involves chemical removal of plant nutrients.^^

     Municipal treatment facilities are forecast to remain the major
point dischargers of BOD throughout the 1975 to 2000 period.
Municipal treatment generated over 40 percent of all BOD in 1975;
this proportion would decline in the High Growth Scenario to about
one-third by 2000.  However, the relative contribution by municipal
treatment facilities to net BOD discharges would increase between
1975 and 2000.  From slightly over one-half in 1975, the proportion
of net BOD discharges attributable to municipal treatment plants
would increase to 85 percent by the year 2000.

     Two factors underlie the differences between trends in gross
generation and net discharges.  The fraction of all gross BOD treated
by municipal treatment plants is expected to decrease by 2000 rela-
tive to 1975 because BOD discharges by industry are projected to grow
faster than population.  But the proportion of net BOD discharges
attributable to municipal treatment plants is expected to increase
over the 1975 to 2000 period because BOD removal requirements imposed
on municipal facilities are assumed to be less stringent than those
imposed on industry.^"

     Because population and centralization of sewage treatment would
increase in all the regions between 1975 and 2000, the generation of
BOD also would increase in all regions.  The regions with the largest
projected increases in population—the Southeast Region (Federal
Region IV), the Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V), and the South
Central Region (Federal Region VI)—would have the largest increases
in gross generation of BOD (see Table 6-9).

     Because efficiency in removing BOD from municipal treatment
plants is assumed to increase uniformally throughout the nation, net
discharges of BOD are also expected to reflect population changes.
Those regions with the greatest increase in population will have the
25steffan, A.S., Effects and Removability of Industrial Pollutants
  in a Municipal System, Joint Municipal/Industrial Seminar on
  Pretreatment of Industrial Wastes, U.S. Environmental Protection
  Agency, 1978, p. 225.
^This is a result of institutional rather than technological
  factors.
                                266

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                              TABLE 6-9
POPULATION GROWTH AND TRENDS IN GROSS GENERATION OF BOD,  BY REGION
                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                            1975 and 2000
                                                      2000

I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.
Federal Region
New England
New York/New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total

1975
Gross BOD
Population (Thousands
(Millions) of Tons)
12
25
24
35
45
22
11
6
25
7
213
450
600
740
1,630
1,720
1,070
590
360
1,000
670
8,840
Population
Number
(Millions)
14
27
28
48
50
30
12
8
32
9
262
Percent
of 1975
117
108
116
137
112
136
109
133
131
134
122
Gross BOD
Quantity
(Thousands
of Tons)
690
3,030
1,130
3,030
2,880
2,100
830
670
1,590
1,310
15,420
Percent
of 1975
154
170
152
186
167
196
141
186
159
195
175

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smallest decline in net discharges.  As a result, Federal Regions IV,
V, and VI would not only have the largest increase in BOD generation
but would also have the lowest decline in BOD discharges.

     The pulp and paper industry is expected to be the major indus-
trial source of BOD between 1975 and 2000.   From an estimated 1.7
million tons of BOD generated in 1975, gross generation is expected
to double by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  This would occur in
association with an almost 4 percent per year increase in constant
dollar output over this time period.  In the Low Growth Scenario,
dollar output in the pulp and paper industry would increase by
slightly less than 3 percent per year, resulting in an increase in
gross BOD generation of approximately 1 million tons.  Improvements
in the efficiency of the pulp and paper industry in removing BOD from
entering wastestreams would decrease net discharges of BOD from 730
thousand tons in 1975 to 260 thousand tons  in the High Growth
Scenario.

     Within this industrial category, the major generators of BOD are
associated with bleached kraft and sulfite  pulp production.  Produc-
tion of kraft pulp, for corrugated boxes and other products, was
estimated to generate about half of all BOD in the pulp and paper
industry in 1975.  However, a shift away from the production of
bleached kraft pulp to unbleached kraft (a less significant generator
of BOD) is anticipated during the 1975 to 2000 period.  About half of
all kraft pulp was bleached in 1975, but this proportion is expected
to decline to less than 15 percent in 2000.  This is expected to
result in lower BOD loadings in the raw wastestreams of kraft pulp
mills by 2000.  The relative contribution of BOD from kraft pulp
mills is thus reduced from half to only one-fourth of all BOD genera-
ted by the pulp and paper industry.  As a result, generation of BOD
by the industry as a whole would grow much more slowly than the
industry's dollar output over the same period.

     Although the quantity of BOD in the raw wastestreams of pulp and
paper industries is expected to increase between 1975 and 2000, net
discharges of BOD from these sources are projected to decline sub-
stantially.  In 1975, it was estimated that more than half of the BOD
in pulp and paper wastestreams was removed through treatment.  How-
ever, almost three-quarters of a million tons were still released to
the environment that year.  If full compliance with effluent limita-
tions guidelines were achieved by the industry, net BOD discharges
would decline to a quarter million tons annually by 2000 in the High
Growth Scenario.

     The impacts of compliance with BAT standards in the pulp and
paper industry are highly evident in the production of sulfite pulp.
The portion of BOD removed from the wastestreams of sulfite mills

                                268

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would increase from about 50 percent in 1975 to over 90 percent by
1985 if full compliance with Federal regulations was achieved.  How-
ever, it should be noted that the treatment of wastewater from
sulfite pulp production is complex and costly,^' and full compli-
ance may not be achieved.  In such case, the projected substantial
reduction in net BOD discharges by the industry would be too optimis-
tic.

     The geographic distribution of the pulp and paper industry is
indicated in Table 6-10.  There is substantial activity in all 10
regions.  However, Federal Regions IV and V are expected in the year
2000 to account for almost half of the constant dollar output of the
industry in the High Growth Scenario.  This would add to the regional
disparity in gross generation of BOD.  However, mitigating this fact
are the improvements in removal rates which would be attained with
full compliance.  Thus, Federal Regions IV and V, which were identi-
fied as facing potential BOD problems because of population growth,
would benefit more than other regions from the increased abatement
efficiency anticipated in the pulp and paper industry.  In particu-
lar, full compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by the pulp
and paper industry in the Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V) would
reduce net discharges from over 100 thousand tons in 1975 to under 50
thousand tons in 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  This would
greatly reduce the relative importance of the pulp and paper industry
as a source of BOD in that region.

     The second largest industrial generator of BOD is the meat
products processing industry.  It was estimated that 820 thousand
tons of BOD were generated in 1975 by this industrial category.  Dur-
ing the 1975 to 2000 period, gross generation is expected to increase
at an annual rate of over 1.5 percent in the High Growth Scenario.
Packinghouse operations are expected to be the major BOD sources
within the meat products processing industry, accounting for approxi-
mately 60 percent of total gross BOD generation.  Slaughterhouses and
poultry processing are also expected to be major generators of BOD
within the industry.

     Water pollution control devices used by the meat products
processing industry include flow equalization tanks, screens, catch
basins, and dissolved air flotation equipment during in-plant pre-
treatment and either anaerobic processes, aerobic lagoons, activated
sludge, or high-rate trickling filters during secondary treatment of
wastes.
2?U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Economic Analysis of
  Proposed Effluent Guidelines;  Pulp, Paper and Paperboard
  Industry, EPA 230/1-73-023, Washington, D.C., September 1973.

                                  269

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                              TABLE 6-10
           OUTPUT OF THE PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY, BY REGION:
                         HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                             1975 and 2000
                                   1975
2000
Output
Region ($Millions)
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.

New England
New York/New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total
$ 2,510
1,660
1,577
3,758
5,247
1,337
363
53
662
1,379
18,530
Percent
of Total
14
9
9
20
28
7
2
-
4
7
100
Output
($Millions)a
$ 4,960
2,800
3,475
11,915
12,396
4,656
1,009
249
1,976
3,579
47,015
Percent
of Total
11
6
7
25
26
10
2
1
4
8
100
Constant 1971 dollars.
                                   270

-------
     It is estimated that, in 1975, such treatment removed over 80
percent of BOD from meat products processing industry wastestreams,
resulting in net discharges of 130 thousand tons in that year.  Com-
pliance with effluent limitations guidelines over the 1975 to 1985
period is expected to reduce discharges further, to about 10 thousand
tons annually by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.

     The regions which benefit from this major decrease in net meat
products processing discharges are the Middle Atlantic, Southeast,
Great Lakes, South Central, and Central Regions (Federal Regions III,
IV, V, VI, and VII).  In the Central Region, net discharges of BOD
from meat processors would be reduced from approximately 25 thousand
tons in 1975 to 15 thousand tons in 2000 if full compliance were
achieved by the industry (High Growth Scenario).  Since the meat
products processing industry is the only major industrial source of
BOD in that region, the virtual elimination of net discharges of BOD
by that industry coupled with low projected regional population
growth (9 percent over the period) results in a sharp percentage
decline in net discharges between 1975 and 2000, the greatest decline
among the regions.

     As mentioned earlier, other major sources of BOD in 1975 were
sugar processing, organic chemicals, and fruit and vegetable proces-
sing.  Full compliance with effluent guidelines would result in
almost total elimination of wastewater discharges of BOD by these
industries.

     In summarizing the analysis of trends in BOD, it should be noted
that the severity of BOD problems within any particular region or
industry will depend on the degree of compliance with effluent
limitations guidelines.  The Southeast Region (Federal Region IV)
best exemplifies this.  Because of population growth and increased
output in the pulp and paper, meat processing, fruit and vegetable
processing, and organic chemicals industries, this region is expected
to have the greatest absolute increases in generation of BOD.  As a
result, if the assumption is made that very few treatment plants and
industries would meet pollution control mandates, Federal Region IV
must expect increasing BOD problems.  In the event of full compli-
ance, Federal Region IV, with the greatest decline in net discharges,
would not face major problems through 2000.

6.2.3  Suspended Solids

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.2.3

o  The generation of suspended solids residuals is projected to
   almost triple under high economic growth conditions, but net dis-
   charges are expected to decrease sharply because of treatment.

                                271

-------
o  The aluminum industry, particularly the bauxite refining process,
   and the coal preparation industry account for most generation of
   suspended solids.

o  However, currently the coal preparation industry has virtually no
   net discharges of suspended solids, and the aluminum industry is
   projected to reach a similar level of control by 1985,  assuming
   full compliance with effluent guidelines.  Municipal wastewater
   treatment facilities then would account for over 75 percent of net
   discharges of suspended solids under high economic growth condi-
   tions.

o  The South Central Region (Federal Region VI) is projected to
   experience the largest relative decline in suspended solids dis-
   charges because it is the site of most U.S. bauxite refining.

     Introduction

     "Suspended solids" is a general term for undissolved organic and
inorganic particulate matter in water.  High concentrations of these
suspended solids increase water turbidity and may result in silt de-
position in lakes and streams.  These problems can affect fish and
aquatic plant life, alter streams, and reduce the storage capabili-
ties of reservoirs.    A high level of water turbidity also inter-
feres with recreational use and aesthetic enjoyment.^  High tur-
bidity in drinking water supplies can have an adverse affect on
chlorine disinfection as suspended matter provides areas where micro-
organisms do not come into contact with the chlorine disinfectant.

     Suspended solids can harm fish and fish food populations in four
ways, by (a) killing them or reducing their growth and resistance to
disease, (b) killing their larvae and eggs, (c) modifying natural
movements and migrations, and (d) reducing the abundance of food
organisms.    Siltation places a stress on stream and lake ecosys-
tems, with the result that the diversity of species present may fall
sharply.
      MITRE Corporation, Metrek Division, National Environmental
  Impact Projection No. 1, MTR-7905, McLean, Virginia, December 1978.
2^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water and
  Hazardous Materials, Quality Criteria for Water, Washington, D.C.,
  July 1976.
-^European Inland Fisheries Advisory Commission, "Water Quality
  Criteria for European Freshwater Fish," International Journal Air-
  Water Pollution, Vol. 9, 1965, p. 151.
                                272

-------
     Although discharges of suspended solids from point sources are
considered a problem, by far the greatest source of this pollutant is
erosion which threatens water quality and soil productivity in many
parts of the United States.31  Suspended solids discharges from
erosion are discussed in Section 6.3.  This section is limited to
point source discharges.

     Discharge Trends for Suspended Solids

     General Trends.  The amount of suspended solids in untreated
municipal and industrial wastewaters is expected to increase sharply
as population and economic activity grow.  Forecasts of gross genera-
tion show substantially higher levels of suspended solids in waste-
waters by 2000 in both the High and Low Growth Scenarios.  Total
gross generation of suspended solids is expected to increase from
over 60 million tons in 1975 to almost 175 million tons in 2000 in
the High Growth Scenario and to almost 140 million tons in the Low
Growth Scenario.  However, full compliance with BAT standards by 1985
would cause a downward trend in net suspended solids discharges.  Our
forecasts show a decline in net discharges of suspended solids in
both scenarios with full compliance from almost 6 million tons in
1975 to less than 2 million tons in 2000 in the High Growth Scenario
and approximately 1.5 million tons in the Low Growth Scenario.

     Figure 6-4 depicts gross generation of suspended solids, net
discharges, and intermediate discharges under the High Growth
Scenario.  Intermediate discharges are calculated under the assump-
tion that pollution control in each industry does not improve over
the 1975 level.  The figure demonstrates the dominance of Federal
Regions III, IV, and V in the generation of suspended solids and
illustrates the radical drop in net discharges—sixfold by 2000—that
would occur in Federal Region VI under the assumption of full
compliance.

     Analysis of Trends.  Effluents from municipal wastewater treat-
ment and four industries account for virtually all gross generation
of suspended solids by point sources.  The four industries are pulp
and paper, aluminum, steel, and coal preparation.  As shown in Table
6-11, the coal preparation and aluminum industries together account
for almost three-fourths of total gross generation.
  u.S. General Accounting Office, Report to Congress;  To Protect
  Tomorrows Food Supply, Soil Conservation Needs Priority Attention,
  CED-77-30, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,
  1977.
                                  273

-------
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852000 75852000 75852000 75852000 75 852000
VII REC V II
Rf(. I\
RI.C. \ NAT 'I.
                          FIGURE 6-4
          GROSS INTERMEDIATE AND NET DISCHARGES OF
                 SUSPENDED SOLIDS, BY REGION
                        1975,1985, 2000
                              274

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                                                   TABLE 6-11
                DISCHARGES AND ABATEMENT PERCENTAGES OF SUSPENDED SOLIDS  BY INDUSTRIAL GROUP
                                                1975,  1985, 2000
                                       (THOUSANDS  OF  TONS UNLESS NOTED)
                                                             1985
                                                                                       2000
1975
Industry
Coal Preparation
Aluminum
''unicipal Wastewater
Treatment Facilities
Steel
Pulp and Paper
Total3
Gross
36,800
6,750
3,900
3,300
2,700
61,400
Net
8
1,100
1,500
670
1,100
5,700
Percent Abated
99.8%
84
62
80
60
91
High Growth
Scenario
Gross Net
61
12
4
4
4
99
,650 1
,300 1
,900 1,200
,700 5
,800 180
,400 1,500
Low Growth
Scenario
Gross
50,250
11,300
4,750
4,500
4,200
85,100
Net
1
1
1,175
4
160
1,500
High Growth
Scenario
Gross Net
119,150 12
23,700 1
5,400 1,300
5,700 6
5,000 200
173,700 1,800
Low Growth
Scenario
Percent Abated
(In 1985 & 2000,
Both Scenarios)
Gross Net
88,
20,
5,
5,
4,
136,
700 9
950 1
100 1,260
300 5
000 170
500 1,600
99.9%
99.9
75
99.9
96
98
"Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.

-------
     Gross generation of suspended solids by the coal preparation
industry is projected to rise from about 40 million tons annually in
1975 to 120 million tons by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario and to
90" million tons in the Low Growth Scenario—annual growth rates of
4.5 percent and 3.3 percent.  The estimated 1975 rate of control of
suspended solids in coal preparation was very high, and will remain
high.  Thus, net discharges after treatment are expected to grow only
at the rate industry output grows, increasing slowly from an insig-
nificant base amount.

     Coal preparation activities occur almost exclusively in four
regions—Middle Atlantic (Federal Region III), Southeast (Federal
Region IV), Great Lakes (Federal Region V), and Mountain (Federal
Region VIII).  For this reason, these regions account for almost 90
percent of gross suspended solids generation by point sources in
2000.  However, the extremely high removal rates achieved by the coal
preparation industry mean that it does not determine the distribution
among regions of net suspended solids discharges.

     The aluminum industry, particularly bauxite refining, also
accounts for significant gross generation of suspended solids.  Gross
generation of suspended solids in bauxite refining is estimated at
almost 7 million tons for 1975 and would rise to 24 million tons by
2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  At the same time, compliance with
effluent limitations guidelines would reduce the net discharge levels
substantially, from over 1 million tons in 1975 to only 1 thousand
tons by 2000.

     Bauxite refining is located mainly in the South Central Region
(Federal Region VI).  In 1975, 17 of the 19 million tons of bauxite
refined in the United States were refined in Federal Region VI.  This
production generated almost 1 million tons of suspended solids in
that year, and the industry is projected to increase annual output in
Federal Region VI by almost 4 percent annually.  However, compliance
with effluent guidelines would reduce net discharges by this industry
by a factor of almost a thousand by 2000.

     Municipal sewage treatment is also an important source of sus-
pended solids discharges.  Projected gross generation would increase
from about 4 million tons in 1975 to 5.5 million tons in 2000 in the
High Growth Scenario and 5 million tons in the Low Growth Scenario.
Even under an assumption of complete compliance with effluent dis-
charge controls, net discharges are projected to decline very little
over the 1975 to 2000 period.  The projections show a decrease in
annual discharge from 1.5 million tons in 1975 to 1.3 million tons in
2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  High net discharges of suspended
solids from municipal facilities are expected to persist because of
                                 276

-------
continued population growth and because the required secondary treat-
ment does not remove more than about three-fourths of the suspended
solids from raw municipal wastewaters.  Addition of tertiary treat-
ment would not affect suspended solids discharges greatly.

     Population growth and increasing centralization of sewage treat-
ment would result in significant net discharges of suspended solids
from municipal facilities throughout the country in the coming years.
Because sewage treatment facilities would be the main point source of
suspended solids if industry complies with effluent guidelines, the
regional distribution of suspended solids discharges is projected to
become much more widely dispersed in 2000.  Federal Regions III, IV,
V, and VI would no longer have disproportionate shares of net dis-
charges (Figure 6-4).

6.2.4  Dissolved Solids

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.2.4

o  Although water quality criteria for dissolved solids exist, there
   are no national effluent guidelines.  Control of dissolved solids
   typically occurs only coincidentally in the control of other pol-
   lutants.

o  Gross generation of dissolved solids by point sources is expected
   to increase from 13 million tons in 1975 to 32 million tons in
   2000 under High Growth conditions while net discharges would
   double to 17 million tons in 2000.  The increase in net discharges
   would follow growth in gross generation because treatment improve-
   ments are not expected during that period.

o  Important industrial sources of dissolved solids discharges
   include the inorganic and organic chemicals, coal preparation,
   electric utilities, and coal mining industries.

o  The Northwest Region (Federal Region X) is projected to experience
   the largest percentage increases in generation and net discharges
   of dissolved solids because of sizable increases in coal-fired and
   nuclear electric generation in that region.

     Introduction

     Dissolved solids generally consist of inorganic salts and small
amounts of organic matter.  The principal dissolved substances are
dissociated ions from sodium chloride, calcium chloride, sodium car-
bonate, and other inorganic salts.
                                 277

-------
     High concentrations of dissolved solids in drinking water can
cause adverse health effects-^ and bad taste.  Treatment of water
with higher concentrations of dissolved solids costs more, and water
pipes may corrode faster.  Excessive dissolved solids concentra-
tions can preclude use of water supplies for irrigation as well.

     Discharge Trends for Dissolved Solids

     General Trends.  Gross generation of dissolved solids by point
sources is expected to double, from about 15 million tons in 1975 to
over 30 million tons in 2000 in the High Growth Scenario and to
around 25 million tons in the Low Growth Scenario.  Compliance with
BAT standards for other pollutants would remove some of the dis-
solved matter from wastewaters coincidentally.  Nonetheless, net dis-
charges of dissolved solids also are projected to double between 1975
and 2000, from 8 million tons in 1975 to 17 million tons in 2000 in
the High Growth Scenario and to 14 million tons in the Low Growth
Scenario.

     All Federal Regions are projected to experience a great increase
in gross generation of dissolved solids and, because only coinci-
dental abatement would occur, as much increase in net discharges
(Figure 6-5).

     No dissolved solids estimates are available for municipal sewage
treatment facilities.  Thus, dissolved solids levels, particularly
from gross or raw wastestream values, are probably understated in
this analysis.

     Analysis of Trends.  Five industrial groups are expected to
remain important sources of dissolved solids: electric utilities,
inorganic chemicals, organic chemicals, coal preparation, and coal
mining (Figure 6-6).  Electric utilities were the largest source in
1975, and our projections indicate they will remain the largest
source throughout the 1975 to 2000 period.  They generated 4 million
tons of dissolved solids in 1975.  By 2000, this is expected to rise
to over 10 million tons in the High Growth Scenario and to 9 million
tons in the Low Growth Scenario, representing annual growth rates of
over 4 percent and 3.5 percent.  Net discharges of dissolved solids
by coal-fired utilities would increase from 2.7 million tons in 1975
to just about 7 million tons in 2000 in both scenarios.  Because
nuclear generated electricity is expected to be the fastest growing
  u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water & Hazardous
  Materials, Quality Criteria for Water, Washington, B.C., July
  1976, p. 205.
                                  278

-------
I
vO
o
    9 -
    8-
    7 —
    6-
    5 -
    3-
    2 -
    1 -
        Gross Discharges
                       i     Captured
                            Net Discharges
       1975 1985  2000 1975 1985 2000
           1975  1985 2000
                                              1975 1985 2000
                                                          1975 1985 2000
                                                                       1975 1985 2000
         REGION I
        New England
REGION II
New York -
New Jersey
REGION III
  Middle
 Atlantic
REGION IV
Southeast
 REGION V
Great Lakes
  REGION VI
South Central
                                      FIGURE 6-5
           GROSS AND NET DISSOLVED SOLIDS DISCHARGES, BY REGION
                              HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                    1975,1985, 2000
                                         279

-------
                              35-
                              30-
                              25-
                           z
                           o
                           H

                           \O
                           O
                           H
                           2
                              20-
                              15-
                              10-
                                 1975 1985 2000
                                    National
 FIGURE 6-5
CONTINUED
     280

-------

-------
electricity source in the nation and because no control of dissolved
solids is expected from electric utilities, nuclear-fueled utilities
would experience the fastest growth in discharges.   The discharges
from the nuclear electric utilities would rise from one-half million
tons in 1975 to about 4 million tons in 2000 in the High Growth
Scenario and to 3 million tons in the Low Growth Scenario.  This
increase would result from assumed expansion of nuclear power in both
scenarios.  Nuclear generation of electricity is estimated to grow
from 0.6 quads33 in 1975 to 4.5 quads in 2000 in the High Growth
Scenario and to 3.6 quads in the Low Growth Scenario.

     The importance of electricity generation as a  source of dis-
solved solids is manifest in the Northwest and Southeast Regions
(Federal Regions X and IV).  The greatest relative  increase in dis-
charges of dissolved solids would occur in Federal  Region X.  There,
gross generation is expected to increase from 160 thousand tons in
1975 to 720 thousand tons in 2000 in the High Growth Scenario, a
growth rate of over 6 percent per year.  Net discharges in Region X
show a similar increase, from 130 thousand tons in 1975 to 560 thou-
sand tons annually by 2000.  This increase is attributable primarily
to projected growth in coal-fired and nuclear electricity generation
in this region.

     Coal-fired electricity in Federal Region X is  expected to
increase from 0.1 quads in 1975 to 1.5 quads in 2000.  The gross
generation of dissolved solids resulting from this  change is expected
to increase from an insignificant amount in 1975 to 290 thousand tons
in 2000.  Although some abatement is anticipated through coincidental
treatment of other pollutants or the enforcement of dissolved solids
standards upon utilities discharging wastewaters into water quality
limited areas, significant removal of dissolved solids from this
source is not expected over the projection period.

     Nuclear electricity in Federal Region X is expected to increase
from 0.04 quads in 1975 to 0.25 quads by 2000.  This would increase
the industry's gross generation of dissolved solids from just over 30
thousand tons in 1975 to over 180 thousand tons in 2000.  Dissolved
solids are not expected to be removed from boiler blowdown waste-
waters prior to discharge.

     Federal Region IV is also projected to have significant growth
in both coal-fired and nuclear electricity generation capacity over
the 1975 to 2000 period.  Gross generation of dissolved solids by
330ne quad = 1 quadrillion Btu; 1 quad is the energy equivalent of
  more than 170 million barrels of crude oil.

                                 282

-------
coal-fired plants is expected to increase to 1 million tons by 2000,
while dissolved solids from nuclear plants are projected to increase
to 670 thousand tons.  None of this is expected to be captured by
pollution control treatment over the period.  Coal preparation also
accounts for a significant amount of gross generation of dissolved
solids in Federal Region IV, but strict control in accordance with
effluent limitations guidelines would limit net discharges somewhat;
they would increase only from 80 thousand tons in 1975 to 130
thousand tons by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.

     The next largest point source of dissolved solids in the nation
is the inorganic chemicals industry.  Gross generation of dissolved
solids is expected to increase as the industry grows, rising from 4
million tons in 1975 to 10 million tons by 2000 in the High Growth
Scenario and to 8 million tons in the Low Growth Scenario.  However,
net discharges from inorganic chemicals production are expected to
decline from 1975 levels.  In the High Growth Scenario, net dissolved
solids discharges, which were estimated to approach 950 thousand tons
in 1975, are projected to total only 390 thousand tons annually by
2000.

     The inorganic chemicals industry is by far the major source of
dissolved solids in the Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII).
There, the inorganic chemicals industry is expected to generate about
2 million tons in 1975 and 7 million tons by 2000.  A high proportion
is expected to be controlled over the period, so that projected net
discharges would actually decline from 340 thousand tons in 1975 to
200 thousand tons by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.

     The coal preparation industry is also projected to be a major
generator of dissolved solids over the 1975 to 2000 period.  In the
High Growth Scenario, gross generation is expected to rise from 900
thousand tons in 1975 to almost 3 million tons in 2000.  The projec-
tion for the Low Growth Scenario in 2000 is 2.25 million tons.  Net
discharges over this period are expected to double, rising from 450
thousand tons in 1975 to 1 million tons in 2000.

     The organic chemicals industry is also projected to be an impor-
tant source of dissolved solids discharges.  Discharges would show an
annual growth rate of 3.3 percent over the 1975 to 2000 period in the
High Growth Scenario.  The expected increase is from 1.2 million tons
in 1975 to 2.7 million tons in 2000.  This doubling of discharges
would be attributable to the rapid economic expansion projected for
the industry.

     Within the organic chemicals industry, the pesticides and agri-
cultural chemicals industry is expected to be the largest generator
of dissolved solids over the 1975 to 2000 period.  Discharges are

                                 283

-------
estimated to rise from 930 thousand tons in 1975 to 1.5 million tons
by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  The dyes and dye intermediates
industry is expected to rise from just over 200 thousand tons in 1975
to about 500 thousand tons in 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.

     The two major forms of dissolved solids discharged by the
organic chemicals industry are chloride and sulfate ions.  These are
not abated under existing regulations.  Chloride discharges are
expected to increase from 370 thousand tons in 1975 to 650 thousand
tons in 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  The pesticides and agri-
cultural chemicals industry is expected to produce the most chloride
pollution, with chloride discharges expected to rise from 250 thou-
sand tons in 1975 to 400 thousand tons in 2000.

     Discharges of sulfate ions are expected to rise from 80 thousand
tons in 1975 to 220 thousand tons in 2000.  The greatest part of sul-
fate discharges is attributable to manufacturing dyes and dye
intermediates.  Sulfates, like chloride, will not be abated even if
full compliance with BAT standards is achieved.

     The organic chemicals industry is a major point source of dis-
solved solids in the Southeast and South Central Regions (Federal
Regions IV and VI). Dissolved solids discharges by this industry are
projected to increase at 4.5 percent per year until 2000.

     In summary, dissolved solids could become a more significant
water quality problem in many areas of the country between now and
2000.  Particular sources of the problem are likely to be discharges
from electric utilities (boiler blowdown) and the organic chemicals
industry.

6.2.5  Nitrogen

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.2.5

o  The generation of nitrogen compounds is expected to increase by
   about one-third to 1.3 million tons in 2000 under high economic
   growth conditions.

o  Net discharges of nitrogen compounds are also expected to
   increase, but because there is some coincidental control of these
   discharges, the rate of increase is not rapid.

o  Municipal sewage treatment plants are expected to be the major
   point dischargers of nitrogen compounds.  Major industrial dis-
   chargers will be the meat products processing, organic chemicals,
   fats and oils, and steel industries.
                                 284

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o  The Southeast Region (Federal Region IV) is expected to be the
   greatest generator of nitrogen compounds and is expected to be the
   major regional source of net discharges by 2000.

     Introduction

    Nitrogen in its many forms plays a fundamental role in the
aquatic environment.  It is apparent that ecological imbalances in
the natural environment such as algal blooms have been caused, in
part, by the excessive discharges of nitrogenous materials to natural
water-ways.-^  Nitrates and ammonia are the main compounds of
nitrogen implicated in water quality problems.

     High intake of nitrates can be hazardous to warm-blooded animals
(particularly the very young) under some circumstances.  Nitrite ion
is formed from nitrate or ammonium ions by certain microorganisms
found in water, soil, and sewage.  In oxygenated natur.al water sys-
tems nitrite is rapidly oxidized, thus depleting free oxygen.

     Treated wastewater effluent containing ammonia has several unde-
sirable characteristics.  Oxidation of the ammonia consumes dissolved
oxygen in receiving waters.  Ammonia also can be toxic to fish life,
corrode copper fittings in pipes, and increase the amount of chlorine
required for disinfection.

     Among the major point sources of nitrogen are municipal and
industrial wastewaters, septic tanks, and feedlot discharges.

     Discharge Trends for Nitrogen

     General Trends.  Generation of nitrogen compounds is expected to
increase between 1975 and 2000.  Annual generation is projected to
increase from 915 thousand tons in 1975, by approximately 1.4 percent
per year in the High Growth Scenario to a level of 1.3 million tons
in 2000.  In the Low Growth Scenario, generation is expected to
increase by about 1 percent per year to a level of 1.1 million tons
annually by 2000.

     Net discharges of nitrogen are also expected to increase over
the period from 1975 to 2000, although at a slower rate than gross
generation.  Annual net discharges of nitrogen are expected to
increase from a 1975 estimate of approximately 800 thousand tons, by
about 10 percent over the entire period in the High Growth Scenario
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Environmental Pollution
  Control Alternatives;  Municipal Wastewater, Washington, B.C.,
  1976.

                                 285

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and 3 percent in the Low Growth Scenario.  These trends are shown in
Figure 6-7.  Removal of other pollutants by industrial and municipal
sources is expected to remove some nitrogen from wastewaters coinci-
dentally.  In addition to this coincidental removal, some facilities
which discharge into water quality-limited receiving waters have
nitrogen effluent limitations imposed.  These limitations serve to
achieve even greater removal efficiency than the coincidental remov-
al.  These two factors, coincidental removal and nitrogen effluent
limitations, combine to offset the effect of economic growth.  This
can be seen by comparing 1975 and 1985 estimates.  From 790 thousand
tons in 1975, net discharges of nitrogen are projected in the High
Growth Scenario to decline to 735 thousand tons annually by 1985.
Between 1985 and 2000, however, in a period when no additional con-
trols on discharges are anticipated, net discharges would increase at
an annual rate of 1.2 percent as the economy continues to expand.

     Analysis of Trends.  Municipal sewage treatment facilities are
expected to be the predominant point sources of nitrogen throughout
the period to 2000.   Generation of nitrogen by these facilities
would increase from an estimated 600 thousand tons in 1975 to about
800 thousand tons by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  Net dischar-
ges of nitrogen from municipal sewage treatment facilities increase
similarly.  From 600 thousand tons in 1975, net discharges of nitro-
gen are projected to increase to just over 750 thousand tons annually
by 2000. The trend in discharges follows the trend in gross genera-
tion because improved treatment to remove nitrogen is not assumed to
be adopted on a widespread basis.  More sophisticated treatment
requiring chemical or additional biological processes is needed to
remove significant quantities of nitrogen from muncipal sewage waste-
waters .

     Continued growth in population and increasing urbanization are
major factors behind the projected increase of nitrogen discharges by
municipal treatment facilities.  Compliance with the Clean Water Act
is assumed to mitigate the impacts of higher waste loads slightly;
net discharges of nitrogen would increase by 26 percent by 2000 in
the High Growth Scenario, while nitrogen in raw sewage would increase
by 29 percent.

     As mentioned in earlier sections, inflows of raw sewage are
expected to increase in all regions because population is growing in
all regions.  The extent of the problem in each region relates to the
regional rate of population growth and the rate at which treatment is
centralized.  The fastest growing regions are thus the regions that
are projected to face a relatively larger nitrogen problem from muni-
cipal sewage treatment facilities—the Southeast (Federal Region IV),
South Central (Federal Region VI), Northwest (Federal Region X), and
Mountain (Federal Region VIII).

                                  286

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  25 -
  20 -
-a-
c
  15 -
  10 —
   5 -
                               REGION  III
                                Middle
                                Atlantic
  REGION VI
South Central
REGION II
New York -
New Jersey
                                  FIGURE 6-7
              GROSS AND NET NITROGEN DISCHARGES, BY REGION
                           HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                1975,1985, 2000
                                     287

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   25 -
   20 -
in  15 -
o
H
£
I—I
H
  10 -
                                                                15  -
                                                                10 -
en
a
o
H
                                                              H
                                                              z
                                                                 5 -
                                                                    1975 1985  2000
                                                                      National
                                    FIGURE 6-7

                                    CONTINUED
                                       288

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     Major industrial nitrogen dischargers in 1975 were the meat
products processing, organic chemicals, and steel industries.  How-
ever, coincidental removal of nitrogen is expected to considerably
reduce the relative importance of these industries over the period,
as shown in Figure 6-8.  For example, in 1975, no coincidental
removal of nitrogen occurred in the meat products processing indus-
try.  However, while the generation of nitrogen in wastes by meat
products processing is expected to grow with industrial output (1.5
percent per year in the High Growth Scenario), net discharges to the
environment are projected to decline substantially.  Annual net dis-
charges of nitrogen are projected to decline from the 1975 estimate
of 90 thousand tons to approximately 15 thousand tons in 2000.

     Methods used to meet the effluent limitations guidelines will
probably vary within the meat products processing industry.  For
example, to remove nitrogen compounds from their wastewaters, meat
packinghouses could use either an anaerobic contact system followed
by aerobic stabilization ponds, or anaerobic-aerobic lagooning sys-
tems.  Poultry processors could use one of three different biological
treatments currently available—aerated lagoons, anaerobic-aerobic
lagoons, or activated sludge.^5

     Reductions in nitrogen discharges in the Great Lakes and Central
Regions (Federal Regions V and VIII) are expected from the meat pro-
ducts processing industry. In the Great Lakes Region, although the
industry is expected to increase its dollar output by 1.3 percent per
year over the 1975 to 2000 period, net discharges by the industry are
projected in the High Growth Scenario to decline from 20 thousand
tons in 1975 to under 2 thousand tons in 2000.  In the Central Region
(Federal Region VII), the meat products processing industry is pro-
jected to grow at the same rate as in the Great Lakes Region (Fed-
eral Region V), but net discharges would decline from 14 thousand
tons in 1975 to 1 thousand tons annually in 2000 (High Growth Scen-
ario) .

     Significant quantities of nitrogen are projected to be generated
and discharged by the organic chemicals industry in both scenarios.
Under High Growth, gross generation is projected to double, from
almost 50 thousand tons in 1975 to about 100 thousand tons annually
by 2000.  Net discharges are also projected to double, increasing
from about 30 thousand tons to 60 thousand tons annually in the same
period.  This increase in nitrogen discharges would result from the
substantial growth in organic chemicals production projected in both
scenarios and from the absence of any controls on nitrogen in waste-
water.
35Scaief, J.F., Effluent Variability in the Meat-Packing and
  Poultry Industries, Pacific Northwest Environmental Research
  Laboratory, Richland, Wa.,  June 1975.

                                  289

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           1975 GROSS
2000 GROSS
             1975 NET *
 2000 NET
* There is a  scale change between 1975 Gross and 1975 Net,

          !HI Municipal Treatment  Plants   |   |  Other
          t^| Meat  Processing -            [•••)  Fertilizer

          fjffig OrR.mii  Chi-mirnls            IK?  s"Sar
                             FIGURE 6-8
                    GROSS AND NET DISCHARGES
                OF NITROGEN, BY INDUSTRIAL GROUP
                      HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                           1975 AND 2000
                                290

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     The steel industry is expected to reduce its nitrogen discharges
sharply over the projection period, primarily through process chan-
ges. An expected shift from open-hearth to basic oxygen and electric
arc steelmaking would reduce net discharges of nitrogen from 24 thou-
sand tons in 1975 to 1 thousand tons by 2000.

     This process change in the steel industry would reduce nitrogen
discharges in the Middle Atlantic Region (Federal Region III).
Although industry output is expected to grow within the region, more
than a 90 percent reduction of nitrogen produced by the industry is
anticipated.  This would reduce annual net discharges from 11 thou-
sand tons in 1975 to less than 1 thousand tons in 2000 in both
scenarios.

     Overall, these trends in nitrogen discharges combine to produce
large increases in discharges in Federal Regions IV and VI.  The
Southeast Region (Federal Region IV) is expected to experience the
large'st absolute increase in nitrogen generation over the period.
Here, gross generation would increase from 150 thousand tons in 1975
to 250 thousand tons annually by 2000 (High Growth Scenario).  Popu-
lation growth, the main cause of this increase, would cause the gross
influx of nitrogen to municipal treatment plants to increase from 100
thousand tons in 1975 to 140 thousand tons in 2000.  Higher nitrogen
loadings are also expected to result from a projected 3.2 percent
annual increase in nitrate fertilizer production in Federal Region
IV.  Nitrate fertilizer production generated about 20 thousand tons
of nitrogen as a pollutant in 1975 and is expected to generate about
35 thousand tons in 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  Increases in
economic output by the meat products processing, organic chemicals,
and steel industries are also expected to cause increased generation
of nitrogen in Federal Region IV.

     Federal Region IV was the second greatest regional source of net
nitrogen discharges in 1975, and would become the major source in
2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  Net discharges increase primarily
because of the release of nitrogen from municipal treatment facili-
ties and the organic chemicals industry.

     The greatest absolute increase in net discharges of nitrogen is
expected in the South Central Region (Federal Region VI).  Here, the
quantity of nitrogen released to surface waters is projected to
increase from 100 thousand tons in 1975 to about 150 thousand tons in
2000.  This is caused mainly by discharges from municipal sewage
facilities, which alone would account for 75 thousand tons in 1975
and over 100 thousand tons in 2000.  Net discharges of nitrogen in
the region by the organic chemicals industry also are projected to
increase between 1975 and 2000 in keeping with projected growth in
the industry.

                                 291

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     Relative to gross generation trends, increases in aggregate net
discharges of nitrogen in Federal Region VI are moderated by the
coincidental removal of nitrogen from the wastewaters of the meat
products processing and fertilizer industries.  While gross
generation increases by 70 percent over the projection period in the
region, net discharges of nitrogen are expected to increase by only
40 percent in the High Growth Scenario.

6.2.6   Phosphorus

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.2.6

o  In its elemental form, phosphorus is toxic to fish life. As phos-
   phate, it can contribute to algal blooms.

o  Municipal treatment plants are by far the greatest point source of
   phosphorus.

o  The generation of phosphorus is projected to increase slightly and
   net discharges to decline slightly under high economic growth con-
   ditions between 1975 and 2000.

o  Regional trends in phosphorus discharges follow, for the most
   part, regional population trends, with exceptions in the New
   York-New Jersey Region (Federal Region II) and the West Region
   (Federal Region IX).

     Introduction

     Phosphorus can be found in two basic forms.  The first form,
elemental phosphorus, is particularly toxic to animal and plant life
and is subject to bioaccumulation in much the same way as mercury and
other toxic metals.  Fish can concentrate elemental phosphorus from
water containing as little as 1 milligram per liter.  Experimental
findings have shown that phosphorus is stable in fish, accumulating
in muscles, fatty tissues, and the liver.

     The second form of phosphorus, phosphates, is one of the major
nutrients required by plants.  In excess of critical concentrations,
phosphates can stimulate algal growth in receiving waters.  Phos-
phates are frequently the nutrients in shortest supply in fresh
waters, so that an increase in phosphates may allow algae and other
plants to grow excessively.  Overabundance of algae in lakes and
o /:
J U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water & Hazardous
  Materials, Quality Criteria for Water, Washington, B.C., July
  1976, p. 188.


                                 292

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 streams causes objectionable odors and may  interfere with fishing,
 water contact recreation, and water supply.

     The SEAS estimates discussed in the following section include
 both forms of phosphorus, though they are not distinguished in the
 text.  Rather, projections of total phosphorus in wastewater dischar-
 ges, composed of elemental phosphorus plus  the phosphorus component
 (by weight) of the phosphate radical, are examined below.

     Discharge Trends for Phosphorus

     General Trends.  Gross generation of phosphorus is expected to
 increase by about one-half percent per year from 1975 to 2000, from
 350 thousand tons in 1975 to just over 400  thousand tons annually by
 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  In the Low Growth Scenario, a very
 slight increase over the 1975 level is expected by 2000.

     Net discharges of phosphorus, in contrast, are expected to
 decline from 1975 to 2000 in both scenarios.  From almost 300 thou-
 sand tons in 1975, net discharges are expected to fall by 20 percent
 in the High Growth Scenario to 220 thousand tons annually by 2000.
 This is attributable to compliance with effluent limitations guide-
 lines by industrial and municipal sources over the 1975 to 1985 per-
 iod, assumed in the SEAS model.  By 1985, net discharges are pro-
 jected to be 30 percent less than the 1975 level in the High Growth
 Scenario.  Between 1985 and 2000, net discharges of phosphorus again
 would increase slightly (by 8 percent) as no further regulations
 limiting phosphorous discharges are assumed in either scenario.

     As with most of the other conventional pollutants, the modeling
 assumption of full compliance with effluent limitations guidelines
 affects forecasted trends in net discharges.  An intermediate level
 of discharges, one assuming that abatement efficiencies in the future
 do not improve over those in 1975, provides a "worst case" scenario
 in terms of abatement.  The resulting intermediate discharge levels,
 as well as gross generation and net discharges, are shown in Figure
 6-9 for 1975, 1985, and 2000 in the High Growth Scenario by region
 and for the nation.  Because the major sources of discharges are
 municipal sewage treatment facilities, the regional distribution of
 phosphorus discharges follows the population distribution, and is
 thus very similar to the nitrogen discharge pattern shown earlier in
 Figure 6-7.

     Analysis of Trends.  Municipal sewage treatment is by far the
most significant point source of phosphorus, so overall trends in
 phosphorus discharges follow trends in discharges from this source.
 For example, between 1975 and 1985, net discharges of phosphorus from
municipal treatment facilities are projected to decline from 250


                                 293

-------
o
H
H
M
H
   7 -
   6 -
   5 -
   2 -
    1 ~
       Gross Discharges
                                                          1975 1985 2000
                          1975 1985 2000
                                1975 1985  2000
1975 1985 2000
       1975 1985 2000
                   1975 1985 2000
                                                            REGION V
                                                           Great Lakes
                           REGION VI
                         South Central
REGION III
  Middle
 Atlantic
REGION IV
Southeast
 REGION I
New England
REGION II
New York -
New Jersey
                                     FIGURE 6-9
           GROSS, INTERMEDIATE, AND NET PHOSPHORUS DISCHARGES,
                                     BY REGION
                              HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                   1975,1985, 2000
                                        294

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                              4-
                           CO
                           I
                              3-
                                1975 1985 2000
                                   National
 FIGURE 6-9
CONTINUED
    295

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thousand to 200 thousand tons annually in the High Growth Scenario
(Table 6-12).  This reduction is the primary factor in the overall 30
percent decline during the same period noted earlier.  Beyond 1985,
net phosphorus discharges from municipal facilities are projected to
once again increase to 220 thousand tons annually by 2000; aggregate
national trends follow the trend in municipal discharges almost
exactly.

     The reduction in net discharges of phosphorus from municipal
sewage facilities is attributable to two factors:  the coincidential
removal of phosphorus in secondary treatment, and anticipated lower
concentrations of phosphorus in sewage.  Although secondary treatment
plants are not designed to remove phosphorus from wastewater, it is
partly removed in the course of removing other pollutants.  Institu-
tion of secondary treatment by all municipalities over the 1975 to
1985 period therefore would increase the percentage of phosphorus
removed from municipal sewage from about 20 to 30 percent.  Greater
removal could be achieved with existing (secondary) facilities if
particular processes currently available were instituted.  In these
processes, coagulants are used to cause solids to clump together and
settle more quickly.  This can remove up to 90 percent of the phos-
phorus normally present in secondary effluent.  SEAS estimates do not
reflect the adoption of these processes, since improvements beyond
secondary treatment are not expected on a widespread basis, except in
waters under international jurisdiction, such as the Great Lakes.

     The second factor influencing net discharge trends of phosphorus
is its concentration in wastewaters arriving at sewage treatment
plants.  Phosphorus in wastewaters is expected to increase by only 7
percent over the 1975 to 2000 period in the High Growth Scenario.
Compared with projected increases in the generation of BOD and nitro-
gen that must be treated by municipal treatment facilities (30 and 40
percent over 1975 levels), the projected increase in phosphorus in
raw sewage streams is small.  This would be attributable to a gradual
phasing out of most detergents and other domestic products containing
phosphates by 1985.

     Despite the expected reductions of phosphorus in both the influ-,
ent and the effluent of municipal treatment plants, they are expected
to remain the most significant point sources of this pollutant over
the period, accounting for 95 percent of all net discharges of phos-
phorus by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario (compared with 86 percent
in 1975) as indicated in Table 6-12.

     The largest industrial source of phosphorus discharges (see
Table 6-12) is the meat products processing industry.  In 1975, it
was estimated that over 20 thousand tons of phosphorus were released
to the environment by this industry.  About half of this came from

                                 296

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                                           TABLE 6-12
                                 PROJECTED  DISCHARGES OF  PHOSPHORUS
                                           BY MAJOR SOURCES
                                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                         1975,  1985, 2000
                                        (THOUSANDS OF TONS)
                               1975
1985
2000
Percent
of Total
Source
Municipal Wastewater
Treatment Facilities
Meat Processing
Inorganic Chemicals
Electric Utilities
Other
Total3
Gross
310
20
9
9
7
350
Net
250
20
1
9
7
290
Gross
89
6
3
3
2
100
Net
86
8
<1
3
2
100
Gross
300
25
14
13
7
360
Net
200
4
<1
1
5
210
Percent
of Total
Gross Net
83 95
7 2
4 <1
4 1
2 2
3 00 100
Percent
of Total
Gross
330
30
20
20
16
430
Net
220
6
<1
2
3
230
Gross
80
8
4
4
4
100
Net
95
2
<1
1
2
100
Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.

-------
packinghouses, with poultry processing and slaughterhouses adding 3
thousand tons each.  However, this is expected to change over the
next decade.  While gross generation is projected in the High Growth
Scenario to increase by 45 percent over the 1975 level by 2000, com-
pliance with BAT standards would reduce net discharges of phosphorus
from the meat products processing industry by 75 percent.  Removal of
phosphorus is expected to be particularly effective in the poultry
processing and the slaughterhouse industries; these industries are
projected to remove 90 and 95 percent of phosphorus from their
wastewaters.

     Because municipal treatment facilities are the predominant
source of phosphorus, regional discharge trends follow regional
population trends.  Generally, regions where population is expected
to increase faster than the national average are expected to achieve
less than the average reduction in phosphorus discharges.  However,
there are three exceptions to this generalization:  the New York-New
Jersey, Great Lakes, and West Regions (Federal Regions II, V, and
IX).

     In the New York-New Jersey Region (Federal Region II), gross
generation of phosphorus is expected to increase more than 40 percent
between 1975 and 2000, from 27 thousand tons to 40 thousand tons
annually in the High Growth Scenario.  This is double the projected
national increase (18 percent) in phosphorus generation.  Since the
population in Federal Region II is expected to increase only 8 per-
cent by 2000, the explanation for this extraordinary rise in phos-
phorus generation must lie in factors other than population.  The
Federal Construction Grants Program may be the source.   Out of an
estimated $15 billion investment for municipalities to achieve
secondary treatment, nearly $3.5 billion is to be invested in Federal
Region II.  This is expected to increase the amount of sewage treated
in the region by 40 percent during the 1975 to 2000 period, and this
would mean an increase in the amount of phosphorus entering municipal
treatment plants.  Large new quantities of phosphorus therefore would
come from homes which were previously unsewered or served by inade-
quate treatment plants.  Thus, extraordinary increases in gross phos-
phorus in Federal Region II are not resulting solely from actual
increases in the amount of phosphorus produced as waste in the
region, but from the transfer of phosphorus in the form of a non-
point source pollutant (septage) to a point source pollutant (munici-
pal wastewater) in the SEAS accounting system.

     Net discharges of phosphorus in Federal Region II are expected
to increase at a slower rate than gross generation.  By 2000, annual
net discharges are projected in the High Growth Scenario to be only
20 percent greater than 1975 discharge estimates, because of the
anticipated removal of some phosphorus from municipal effluents.  In

                                 298

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1975, only 20 percent of the phosphorus was removed from wastewaters
in Federal Region II.  However, because more secondary treatment
plants will come on-line, by 2000 more than 40 percent of the phos-
phorus is expected to be removed from municipal wastewaters prior to
discharge.

     Discharges of phosphorus in the Great Lakes Region (Federal
Region V) are expected to decline faster than national projections
because of special circumstances which are occurring in the Great
Lakes Basin.   A goal has been set by international agreement, that
all municipal sewage plants which treat more than 1 million gallons
of wastewater per day are required to reduce phosphorus concentra-
tions to 1 mg/1.  This reduces phosphorus loadings significantly
compared to coincidental reductions achieved in other parts of the
country.  It should be noted that additional phosphorus load reduc-
tions for the Great Lakes Basin are currently being considered by the
parties to the International Joint Commission on the Great Lakes.-*'

     Discharges of phosphorus within the West Region (Federal Region
IX) are projected to decline in both scenarios, despite an expected
30 percent increase in population by 2000.  This is attributable to
two anticipated improvements:  the reduction in phosphorus concentra-
tion in municipal wastewaters and a higher degree of phosphorus
removal from wastestreams of the meat products processing industry.

     The Southeast Region (Federal Region IV) is expected to experi-
ence a 40 percent increase in phosphorus generation between 1975 and
2000, attributable primarily to regional population growth approach-
ing 40 percent over the period.  Increases in economic output from
the inorganic chemicals and meat products processing industries are
also expected to result in the generation of greater quantities of
phosphorus.  Despite these rather large increases in phosphorus
generation, net discharges of phosphorus are expected to decline
slightly between 1975 and 2000, because of effective treatment of
phosphorus in the wastewaters of the inorganic chemicals and meat
products processing industries.  Increases in net discharges from
municipal sewage treatment plants are expected to partially offset
industrial improvements, however.

     The greatest regional increase in discharges of phosphorus is
expected in the South Central Region (Federal Region VI).  Gross
generation is projected in the High Growth Scenario to increase from
35 thousand tons in 1975 to above 60 thousand tons in 2000, a 2.3
3 Personal communication, Francis T. Mayo, Director of the
  Municipal Environmental Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental
  Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio, September 6, 1979.
                                 299

-------
percent per year growth rate.  Net discharges are expected to
increase more slowly, about 1 percent per year.  A projected 1.2
percent annual increase in population is the principal reason for the
increases, as sewage influent accounts for over 80 percent of the
gross phosphorus generation and 95 percent of the net point dis-
charges in Federal Region VI.

     While phosphorus discharges would increase in Federal Region II
despite less than average population growth, phosphorus discharges
are projected to decline in the West Region (Federal Region IX)
despite an expected 30 percent increase in population between 1975
and 2000.  A projected decline of 30 percent gross loadings of phos-
phorus between 1975 and 2000 is attributable primarily to a reduction
in phosphorus entering municipal treatment plants.  Net discharges of
phosphorus are expected to decline at an even higher rate (40 percent
from the 1975 level) than gross generation because of increased
removal of phosphorus by municipal treatment plants and the expected
removal of phosphorus from the wastestreams of the meat processing
industry.

6.2.7  Oil and Grease

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.2.7

o  The oil and grease pollutant category includes thousands of
   organic compounds.  It is a concern primarily because of its
   toxicity to aquatic organisms, its input to BOD, and its capacity
   for fouling shorelines and beaches.

o  Gross generation of oil and grease as a pollutant is expected to
   increase from 1.2 to 1.9 million tons between 1975 and 2000 under
   high economic growth conditions, while net discharges are expected
   to decline 30 percent from their 1975 levels—from 480 thousand
   tons to 340 thousand tons.

o  The meat processing industry is expected to generate the most oil
   and grease throughout the 1975 to 2000 period, but the major net
   discharger is expected to be petroleum refining and storage.  Oil
   and grease compounds emanating from petroleum industries are
   potentially more harmful than natural oil and grease from meat
   processing.

o  Due to the continued development of Alaskan oil, the Northwest
   Region (Federal Region X) is expected to have the most notable
   increase in discharges of oil and grease.
                                 300

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     Introduction

     Oil and grease is a pollutant category that comprises thousands
of organic compounds with varying physical, chemical, and toxicologi-
cal properties.  It includes hydrocarbons, fatty acids, soaps, waxes,
and oils.  These substances are difficult to discuss generally since
they may be volatile or nonvolatile, soluble or insoluble, persis-
tent or easily degradable.

     Oily wastes may be classified as follows:

     o  Light hydrocarbons:  These include light fuels, such as gaso-
        line, kerosene, and jet fuel, and miscellaneous solvents used
        for industrial processing, degreasing,  or cleaning purposes.
        The presence of these light hydrocarbons may make the removal
        of other oily wastes more difficult.

     o  Heavy hydrocarbons, fuels, and tars:  These include the crude
        oils, diesel oils, No. 6 fuel oils, residual oils, slop oils,
        and, in some cases, asphalt and road tar.

     o  Lubricants and cutting fluids:  These generally fall into two
        classes—non-emulsifiable oils such as water soluble oils,
        rolling oils, cutting oils, and drawing compounds and emulsi-
        fiable oils containing fat, soap, or various other addi-
        tives.

     o  Vegetable and animal fats and oils:  These originate primar-
        ily from processing of foods and natural products.

     Oil and grease are found in process wastewater from washdown,
runoff, spills, and leakage.  Because of widespread use, they are
common in wastewater streams.  Field and laboratory evidence has
shown both acute toxicity and sublethal toxicity of oils to aquatic
          O O
organisms.J0  Oil and grease of any kind in the water can be detri-
mental to fish and waterfowl, increase BOD in the water, and foul
shorelines and beaches.  The discussion that follows estimates trends
in point discharges of oil and grease, including spills.

     Discharge Trends for Oil and Grease

     General Trends.  Gross generation of oil and grease is expected
to increase by almost 2 percent per year over the 1975 to 2000 period
3°Hampson, G.R. and H.L. Sanders.  "Local Oilspills," Oceanics,
  Vol. 15, 1969.
                                 301

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in the High Growth Scenario.  From an estimated 1.2 million tons in
1975, the projections indicate that gross generation will be 1.9
million tons by 2000.

     In contrast, both scenarios forecast a decline in net dis-
charges of oil and grease between 1975 and 2000.  From a 1975 esti-
mate of almost 500 thousand tons, net discharges are projected in the
High Growth Scenario to decline at an annual rate of almost 1.5 per-
cent to 340 thousand tons by 2000.  Oil and grease discharges would
decline in the Low Growth Scenario by 2.3 percent during the same
period.  These declines would be attributable to anticipated compli-
ance with BAT standards for oil and grease by most major industrial
sources.  The meat products processing, steel, and textile industries
are expected to achieve significant reductions in their discharges of
oil and grease between 1975 and 1985.  In this period, total annual
net discharges are projected in the High Growth Scenario to decline
by 50 percent.  Beyond 1985, however, no further restrictions on oil
and grease discharges are expected to be introduced.

     The regional distribution of gross, intermediate, and net dis-
charges of oil and grease is shown in Figure 6-10.  Should compliance
with effluent limitations guidelines lag behind schedule, discharges
could be greater than suggested by the net discharge estimates.  This
applies particularly to the Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V)
where the SEAS assumption that the steel industry would remove signi-
ficant amounts of oil and grease from its wastewaters is crucial to
the net discharge estimate.

     Analysis of Trends.  The meat products processing industry is
expected to be the largest generator of oil and grease through 2000
(Figure 6-11).  It is estimated that, in 1975, about 400 thousand
tons of oil and grease were generated by the meat products processing
industry, one-third of all point source generation.  This proportion
is expected to remain constant.  Packinghouses are expected to be
responsible for two-thirds of the meat products processing industry's
total generation.

     Although large quantities of oil and grease would be generated,
the meat products processing industry is expected to control this
pollutant throughout the 1975 to 2000 period.  Net discharges of oil
and grease from the industry in 1975 are estimated at 350 thousand
tons (30 percent of gross generation).  By the year 2000, it is anti-
cipated that full compliance with BAT standards would reduce the oil
and grease discharged to the environment to as little as 2 percent of
the amount generated as waste.  Particularly effective removal is
expected at packinghouses.  Gross generation of oil and grease by
packinghouses is projected to be 360 thousand tons in 2000; net
discharges are expected to be only 5 thousand tons.

                                 302

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   5 -
   4 —
a
g
o-
   2-
   1 -
                I    I  Captured

                      Intermediate Discharges

                      Net Discharges
         Gross Discharges
       1975 1985 2000
                                                               1975 1985 2000
                   1975 1985 2000
                        1975  1985 2000
                                             1975 1985 2000
                                     1975  1985 2000
                                  REGION III
                                    Middle
                                   Atlantic
 REGION I
New  England
REGION II
New York -
New Jersey
REGION IV
Southeast
 REGION V
Great Lakes
  REGION VI
South Central
                                    FIGURE 6-10
        GROSS, INTERMEDIATE, AND NET OILS AND GREASE DISCHARGES
                                    BY REGION
                            HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                  1975,1985, 2000
                                         303

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g
£
M
H
a
o-
    5-
   4-
   3 -
   1 -
                                                             2.0-
                                                                  1975 1985 2000
                                                                    National
                                 FIGURE 6-10

                                 CONTINUED
                                     304

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         1975 GROSS
                                           2000 GROSS
               1975 NET*
2000 NET
* There is  a  scale change between 1975  Gross and 1975 Net.

         tim«  Petroleum Refining & Storage I	I Organic Chemicals
         ^^  Meat Processing             ESS! Other

             Steel                     MM Textiles
                             FIGURE 6-11
                     GROSS AND NET DISCHARGES
               OF OIL AND GREASE, BY INDUSTRY GROUP
                       HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                            1975 AND 2000
                                 305

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     This reduction in oil and grease discharges by the meat products
processing industry would benefit several regions.  Most noteworthy
are the Southeast Region (Federal Region IV) and the Central Region
(Federal Region VII).

     Federal Region IV is expected to see the greatest absolute
increase in the generation of oil and grease of any Federal Region.
From a 1975 estimate of 140 thousand tons, gross generation of oil
and grease is expected to increase by 3.6 percent per year to 340
thousand tons by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  The major source
of oil and grease through 2000 is expected to be the meat products
processing industry.  A projected annual growth rate of 2.5 percent
in output from that industry is expected to increase gross generation
of oil and grease from 70 thousand tons in 1975 to 125 thousand tons
by 2000.  Increases in output from the textiles, organic chemicals,
and steel industries are also expected to add to the increase in
gross generation.  However, if full compliance with effluent limita-
tions guidelines were achieved, net discharges of oil and grease in
the region would be reduced.  Net discharges are projected to decline
to two-thirds of their 1975 levels by 2000 in the High Growth
Scenario.

     The effect of the full compliance assumption on oil and grease
estimates in the meat products processing industry is most obvious in
the Central Region (Federal Region VII), where it is the major indus-
try of the region.  While gross generation of oil and grease in the
region is projected to increase by approximately 1.5 percent per year
between 1975 and 2000 in the High Growth Scenario, net discharges
would decrease by a factor of six, from 18 thousand tons to less than
3 thousand.

     The petroleum refining and storage industry is expected to be
the main source of net oil and grease discharges between 1975 and
2000.  From a 1975 annual net discharge estimate of almost 200 thou-
sand tons, discharges of oil and grease from petroleum refining and
storage are expected to increase by one-fourth in the High Growth
Scenario.  This increase may be contrasted with the much faster in-
crease in gross generation of oil and grease,  which is projected to
increase by one-third over the same period.  Increased discharges of
oil and grease from petroleum refining and storage are of particular
concern, since they are more likely to be toxic to aquatic life than
oil and grease discharges from other sources.

     Treatment is expected to achieve 95 percent removal of oil and
grease from the petroleum refining industry's  wastewaters by 1985.
As a result,  net discharges from petroleum refining processes are
projected to account for less than 1 percent of all net discharges
                                 306

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from point sources by the year 2000, even though they still would
account for 40 percent of all oil and grease generated.

     Oil and grease discharges from storage and transportation opera-
tions in the industry are more difficult to control than wastewater.
Spills and leaks during transportation of crude oil and petroleum
products and from the storage of oil products are expected to in-
crease gradually as these activities grow.   Between 1975 and 2000, it
is expected that spills and leaks of oil and grease will increase
from almost 200 thousand tons to 220 thousand tons annually in the
High Growth Scenario.

     Trends in oil and grease discharges in the Northwest Region
(Federal Region X) would reflect continued exploitation of the
Alaskan oil fields.  Total constant dollar output in the petroleum
refining and storage industry in Federal Region X is expected in the
High Growth Scenario to grow from $550 million in 1975 to nearly $2
billion in 2000.  As a result, net discharges of oil and grease from
petroleum refining and storage there are projected to increase at an
annual rate of 7 percent between 1975 and 2000 in the High Growth
Scenario.

     Over the 1975 to 2000 period, annual production of Alaskan oil
is projected in both scenarios to increase from about 70 million bar-
rels to more than 1 billion barrels.  Leaks and spills from the
trans-Alaska pipeline are likely to be greater than the national
average because of the 135°F temperature of the oil being transported
and the permanently frozen subsoils over which it travels.Jy  Fur-
ther, spills also can be expected from terminal operations.

     Increased production of Alaskan oil can be expected to affect
discharges of oil and grease from petroleum refining in the West
Region (Federal Region IX) as well.  Most of the oil from the Alaskan
fields is expected to be refined in California, and as a result,
annual gross production of oil and grease wastes in petroleum refin-
ing and storage in Federal Region IX are projected to increase by 1
percent per year in both scenarios between 1975 and 2000.  However,
most of this waste is attributable to petroleum refining, which will
remove most oil and grease from its wastewaters prior to discharge.
Thus, net discharges are projected to increase at only half a percent
per year between 1975 and 2000.  Trends in gross generation of oil
and grease from other industries in Federal Region IX are expected to
-^Council on Environmental Quality, Energy Alternatives:  A Com-
  parative Analysis, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
  D.C. , May 1975, p. 3-37.
                                 307

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lag behind national trends since economic growth in the major indus-
trial sources is projected to be lower in Federal Region IX than
nationally.  Furthermore, compliance with effluent limitations guide-
lines in major industrial categories is expected in the High Growth
Scenario to result in a 30 percent reduction of net discharges of oil
and grease by 2000.

     Generation of waste oil and grease by the steel industry is
expected to increase by over 50 percent from 1975 to 2000.  This fol-
lows directly from the increase in economic output expected in the
industry during that period.  However, the anticipated shift away
from open hearth steelmaking and assumed compliance with effluent
limitations guidelines for oil and grease would curtail net dis-
charges.  It is estimated that about 150 thousand tons of oil and
grease were discharged to the environment by the steel industry in
1975.  This would decline to only 2 thousand tons by 2000 in the High
Growth Scenario.

     The organic chemicals industry is projected to generate greater
quantities of oil and grease over the 1975 to 2000 period.  From a
1975 estimate of around 50 thousand tons, oil and grease wastes are
projected in the High Growth Scenario to increase at an annual rate
of 2.5 percent.  This increase is most evident in the production of
phenols and acetones where gross oil and grease wastes are expected
to increase at an annual rate of 4.5 percent.  Net discharges of oil
and grease by the organic chemicals industry are expected to increase
from under 40 thousand to around 70 thousand tons between 1975 and
2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  Although increased control of dis-
charges of oil and grease is assumed in our projections, a projected
annual increase in economic output of almost 5 percent for the indus-
try is expected to more than offset these control improvements.

     The Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V) generated approxi-
mately 30 percent of the national total of oil and grease wastes in
1975, more than twice that of any other region.  However, the
region's share of the national total is expected to decline over the
1975 to 2000 period because of assumed effluent controls by the
steelmaking industry.  Gross generation of oil and grease wastes is
projected in the High Growth Scenario to increase from 350 thousand
tons in 1975 to over 500 thousand tons in 2000.  This increase is
attributable to an expected 13 percent increase in output by the meat
products processing industry and a 50 percent increase in steel manu-
facturing.  However, steel is expected to remove 99 percent of all
oil and grease from its wastestreams by 1985.  Net discharges of oil
and grease in the region would therefore decline by 65 percent by
2000.
                                 308

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     The South Central Region (Federal Region VI) is projected to
experience increased discharges of oil and grease in the High Growth
Scenario only.  Gross generation of oil and grease wastes is expected
to increase by 2.5 percent annually, from 150 thousand to 270 thou-
sand tons in this scenario.  This would be attributable to a pro-
jected threefold increase in economic output by the organic chemicals
industry and a 70 percent increase in output from the meat products
processing industry in the region.  However, net discharges of oil
and grease are projected to increase by only 10 percent over the 1975
estimate.  In the Low Growth Scenario, net discharges are expected to
decline by 10 percent.  This difference between scenarios is due
primarily to different growth rates that would be achieved by the
organic chemicals industry in the region under high and low economic
growth conditions.  Although full compliance with BAT standards would
greatly reduce the net discharges of oil and grease by most indus-
tries, the organic chemicals industry is expected to more than double
its discharges in any case.

6.2.8  Toxics and Other Pollutants

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.2.8

o  Gross generation of cadmium, chromium, cyanide, and copper is
   expected to increase, and the generation of mercury to decrease
   between 1975 and 2000.  Generation of phenol (as oil and grease)
   is expected to increase while phenol (as dissolved solids) is
   expected to decline over the same time period.  Net discharges of
   all the analyzed toxics are expected to decline substantially
   between 1975 and 2000, because of environmental controls.

o  Chemical oxygen demand (COD) generation is expected to increase
   substantially between 1975 and 2000, but net discharges are expec-
   ted to decline slightly.  Organic chemicals manufacture and
   electric utilities are expected to be the major sources of COD
   discharges.

o  While the number of fecal coliform bacteria in observed stream
   segments has declined recently, primarily because of improved
   treatment of sewage by municipalities, this pollutant still poses
   a widespread water quality problem.

     Toxic Metals and Phenols

     Toxic substances in water bodies are of considerable concern
because of their potential effects on human health and aquatic eco-
systems.  Even low concentrations of some toxics can cause tumors,
mutations, and developmental effects on animal and plant populations
that depend upon polluted water sources.  Because concern about toxic

                                 309

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chemicals has developed only recently, few data are available for use
in projecting discharge trends.  This is particularly evident for
toxic organic chemicals.  Consequently, SEAS toxic pollution esti-
mates are fragmentary and cover only a small fraction of the 65 clas-
ses of toxic pollutants already recognized by EPA.^0  Also, toxic
substances may appear in water from either direct deposition from the
atmosphere or leaching from soils and rocks by acid precipitation.

     Lack of alternative data sources makes it difficult to assess
the accuracy of the current SEAS toxics data base.  However, compari-
son with data collected by EPA's Effluent Guidelines Division on the
occurrence of toxic pollutants (primarily metals) in industrial
wastewaters shows SEAS industrial coverage to be most complete for
cadmium, chromium, copper, cyanide, mercury, and phenol.  These are
the toxics dealt with in this section.  The SEAS-generated trends
should, however, be interpreted with caution.

     Toxic metals have also been found in samples from remote,
"pristine" areas.  This raises the concern for their direct deposi-
tion or mobilization by acid precipitation.  Toxic metals are often
found in surface waters near industrial areas.^  They persist in
sediments and are not degraded by biological action.  In fact, toxic
metals may become concentrated in the tissues of predatory wildlife
species.

     The toxicity of cyanide arises from its capability to inhibit
cellular metabolism.  Cyanide compounds vary in their persistence;
their widespread use by industry makes cyanide pollution a potential-
ly serious problem in most of the United States.

     The toxicity of phenol depends somewhat on other conditions in
the water.  Low dissolved oxygen concentrations, increased salinity,
and higher temperatures all increase its toxicity.  Phenolic com-
pounds also can taint fish caught in polluted waters and degrade the
taste of drinking water.  Phenols are difficult to remove from drink-
ing water supplies—a matter of concern because they have been found
to be carcinogenic in mice.  The health effects of the toxic sub-
stances discussed in this section are summarized in Table 6-13.
^°National Resources Defense Council v. Train, No. 75-172, S.R.C.
  2120 (D.D.C. June 9, 1976).  Toxic metals discharged to water esti-
  mated by SEAS are antimony, arsenic, asbestsos, cadmium, chromium,
  copper, cyanide, lead, mercury, nickel, phenol, selenium, and zinc.
  SEAS also estimates phenol and cyanide discharges.
41Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality, U.S.
  Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., December 1978, p.
  131.

                                 310

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                                TABLE  6-13
         THRESHOLD LIMITS AND  EFFECTS  OF SELECTED
                            TOXIC POLLUTANTS
 Pollutant

 Cadmium
                   Threshold
                                                              Effects
 Chromium




 Copper



 Cyanide


 Mercury




 Phenol
10 ug/1 for domestic water supply
Fresh Water
0.4 ug/1 - 1.2  ug/1  for cladocerans and
salmonid fishes.

4 ug/1 - 12.0 ug/1 for other,  less
sensitive aquatic life.
Maine

5.0 ug/1.

50 ug/1 for domestic water supply.
100 ug/1 for freshwater aquatic life.
1.0 mg/1 for domestic water supplies.
For marine and aquatic life,  O.I
times a 96-hour LC

5.0 ug/1 for freshwater and marine
aquatic life and wildlife.

2.0 ug/1 for domestic water supply.
0.05 ug/1 for freshwater aquatic
life and wildlife.
0.10 ug/1- for marine aquatic life
Itai-itai disease,  chronic
kidney disease,  cadmiosis
Corrosive ulcers, scars,  non-
ulcerative contact dermatitis,
eczematoris,  noneczematous
contact dermatitisd

Acute toxicosis, chronic
toxicosis, Wilson's Disease,
Cholestosis6

Direct toxicity affecting
respiration

Organomercurials, pharyngitis,
gastroenteritis, ulcerative
hemorrhagic colitis, hepatitis*
1 ug/1 for domestic water supply and    Irritant  causing  burse,  tumor
to protect against freshwater tainting  promoter  in  presence  of  sorae
                                        chemicals.
 ug/1 « micrograms per liter


 *U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water and Hazardous
 Materials, Quality Criteria for Water. Washington, D.C., July 1976.

 Kobayashi, J., "Relation Between 'Itai-itai' Disease and the Pollution
 of River Waters," Fifth International Water Pollution Research
 Conference. 1-15, 1-7,  1970.

 °Frleberg, L. et al, "Cadmium Poisoning," Journal of the American
 Medical Association.  Vol.  17,  1974, p. 86~

 Tlational Academy of Sciences,  Medical and Biological Effects of
 Environmental Pollutants:  Chromium. Washington. D.C.,  1974.

TJational Academy of Sciences,  Medical and Biological Effects of
 Environmental Pollutants;  Copper. Washington,  B.C.,  1977.

 Personal communication,  Jim Darr, U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency,
 Office of Toxic Substances.


"National Academy of Sciences,  An Assessment of Mercury in  the
 Environment.  Washington, D.C.,  1977.


National Institute  of Occupational Safety and  Health,  Criteria for  a
 Recommended Standard Exposure  to Phenol.  Washington, D.C., July  1976.
                                            311

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     This section summarizes projections of toxic pollutant dis-
charges from point sources as estimated by SEAS.  Where applicable,
special attention is given to the discharges from five major chemi-
cals.  These industries are emphasized because their discharge data
are considered to be the most reliable.  Table 6-14 summarizes trends
in discharges of the six toxics to be examined.

     Cadmium.  Generation of cadmium wastes is projected to increase
from about 400 tons in 1975 to 1,000 tons annually by 2000 in the
High Growth Scenario and to about 850 tons in the Low Growth
Scenario—annual growth rates of 3.7 and 3 percent.

     Assumed compliance with effluent limitations guidelines (BAT) by
1985 would reduce cadmium discharges significantly over the 1975 to
2000 period.  Net discharges in 1975 are estimated to have been about
75 tons, but by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario, discharges are pro-
jected to decline to 17 tons annually (13 tons in the Low Growth
Scenario).  Only the organic chemicals and other nonferrous metals
industries are projected by SEAS to release significant quantities of
cadmium after 1985, since the electroplating industry, a major source
at present, would reduce its discharges to zero through full compli-
ance with BAT.  A regional breakdown indicates that the New York-
New Jersey, Southeast, Great Lakes, and South Central Regions
(Federal Regions II, IV, V, and VI) are expected to be the major
areas of cadmium waste generation.

     The regional distribution of cadmium generation is largely
determined by the location of the electroplating industry.  A region-
al breakdown indicates that the New York-New Jersey, Southeast, Great
Lakes, and South Central Regions (Federal Regions II, IV, V, and VI)
are expected to be the major areas of cadmium waste generation.  The
Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V) accounts for 38 percent of
gross generation between 1975 and 2000, by far the largest regional
share.  Gross generation in the South Central Region shows the high-
est growth rates during the period—6.7 and 5 percent annually in the
High and Low Growth Scenarios.  In contrast, the New York-New Jersey
Region and the Southeast Region would account for the greatest por-
tions of net cadmium discharges.

     However, projections reported in this section are based upon
assumptions of continued widespread cadmium use in the electroplating
industry and do not account for recent initiatives to control this
compound through the application of substitute coatings.  An agree-
ment between EPA and the Department of Defense (DOD), the largest
user of electroplated products, has recently been reached to investi-
gate alternative coatings.  It is anticipated that DOD's requirements
and specifications will have a domino effect on the industry because
                                 312

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                                                    TABLE 6-14
                                     TRENDS IN DISCHARGES OF TOXIC POLLUTANTS
                                               HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                                  1975 AND 2000
u>
                                  1975
                                                         2000
Pollutant
Cadmium
Chromium
Copper
Cyanide
Mercury
Phenol (as
Gross
Discharges*
400
31,550
48,500
30,100
360
73,300
Net
Discharges*
70
8,330
36,150
5,100
2
14,100
Gross
Discharges*
990
83,030
85,900
80,300
130
973,500
Percent
Change
+147
+163
+77
+167
-64
+1228
Net
Discharges*
20
3,050
80,500
3,900
0
1,750
Percent
Change
-72
-63
+122
-24
	
-82
     oil and grease)

     Phenol  (as
     dissolved solids)
17,300
5,300
14,600
-16
4,400
-17
     *Tons

-------
of its depea4e«ce upon defense contract work.  Thus, if substitute
coatings are fe«nd, projections of cadmium generated by electropla-
ters could be significantly overstated.

     Chroaiua.  Th« steel and electroplating industries are the major
sources of chrowitsa wastes.  Chromium in the untreated wastewaters of
the ste«l iai««try is projected to increase at an annual rate of 3.5
percent in the Migfe Growth Scenario and 2.9 percent in the Low Growth
Scenario.  Grees generation of chromium in the electroplating indus-
try is projected to increase at even higher rates—3.8 percent and
3.1 percent anaually in the two scenarios.  Total chromium wastes
consequently wetild increase between 1975 and 2000 from about 30 thou-
sand tons to over 30 thousand tons in the High Growth and over 65
thousand teas in the Low Growth Scenario.

     However, thia increase in chromium wastes brought on by economic
growth would be mete than offset by compliance with effluent limita-
tions guideliaes (Table 6-15).  Net discharges of chromium by the
steel industry aloae are projected to decline by 2000 to only 2 per-
cent of the estiaate for 1975.  The electroplating industry would
eliminate all chroMium from its final effluent by 2000.

     Conversion of coal to synthetic fuels would become an important
source of chromium wastes by 2000.  In the High Growth Scenario,
gross generation of chromium during coal conversion is projected to
approach 11 thousand tons, about 15 percent of the national total.
Most coal conversion is expected in the Southeast, Great Lakes, and
Mountain Regioas (Federal Regions IV, V, and VIII); by 2000 it would
accowat for tke largest part of chromium generation in Federal Region
VIII.  Only u»d«r the assumption of high economic growth would
chromiuffl generation by coal conversion facilities pose a possible
preblem, siaee tl*e industry would see almost no development in the
Lew Growth Scenario.

     Treads in the control of chromium in most Federal Regio-ns are
expected te f®ll®w the downward national trend.  However, net dis-
charges in the Middle Atlantic, Southeast, Great Lakes, and Northwest
Regions (Faderal legions III, IV, V, and X) deviate slightly.
Federal Regions III, V, and X are expected to experience greater than
average declines in net discharges from point sources between 1975
and 2000.  In 1975, net discharges of chromium in these regions were
mostly attributable to the steel industry.  The large reduction in
discharges of chromium projected for this industry accounts for these
greater thwa average regional declines.

     Federal Itegi®-n IV s net discharges would decrease over the 1975
to 2000 time period, but much more slowly than the national rate.
Furthermore, this region is projected to experience'the greatest

                                 314

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                            TABLE 6-15
        CHROMIUM DISCHARGES FOR SELECTED INDUSTRIAL GROUPS
                           1975 and 2000
                              (TONS)

                          1975           	     2000
     Industry

Steel

Electroplating

Inorganic Chemicals

Electric Utilities:
 Oil/Coal             1,080  1,080        870     20      960     20

Electric Utilities:
High Growth
Gross
20,160
4., 700
1,300
Net
4,330
970
200
Gross
49,300
11,800
3,450
Net
130
0
3
Low Growth
Gross
41,400
9,980
2,740
Net
100
0
o
L.
Nuclear
Textiles
Other
Total3
50
600
3,600
31,550
50
600
1,140
8,370
400
1,580
17,630
83,030
400
1,580
920
3,050
320
1,100
9,850
66,350
320
1,100
420
1,960
*3
 Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                               315

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levels of net chromium discharges.  The textile and organic chemicals
industries are expected to be the major sources of these discharges.

     Copper.  Gross generation of copper in wastewaters is expected
to increase substantially between 1975 and 2000 (Table 6-16).  From
50 thousand tons in 1975, gross copper loadings to untreated waste-
waters would increase by three-fourths in the High Growth Scenario
and two-thirds in the Low Growth Scenario.  Coal-fired electric util-
ities are expected to be the predominant generator of copper.
Between 1975 and 2000, the gross generation of copper wastes by coal-
fired utilities would increase from about half of all point source
generation to more than three-fourths of all copper loadings to un-
treated waste streams.

     In contrast, net copper discharges are expected to drop sharply.
From an estimate of 36 thousand tons for 1975, net copper discharges
are projected to decline to just 100 tons by 2000 in the High Growth
Scenario (less than 1 percent of the 1975 volume).  This decline
would occur only with full compliance with BAT standards.

     The Middle Atlantic, Southeast, and Great Lakes Regions (Federal
Regions III, IV, and V) are expected to have the most gross copper
waste, with increases from 7 to 11 thousand tons, 10 to 20 thousand
tons, and 12 to 19 thousand tons, respectively, from 1975 to 2000 in
the High Growth Scenario.  These increases would occur primarily
because of the reliance on coal-fired power plants by those regions.

     Other major sources of copper include the electroplating indus-
try and oil- and gas-fired electric utilities.  Gross copper wastes
from the electroplating industry would nearly triple, rising from 5
thousand tons in 1975 to 13 thousand tons in 2000 in the High Growth
Scenario.  In contrast, gross copper wastes from oil- and gas-fired
utilities are expected to decline drastically, primarily because coal
and nuclear units will supplant many oil- and gas-fired units during
the 1975 to 2000 period.  Copper generated by oil-fired utilities
would drop to about half of the 1975 level, while copper from gas-
fired utilities would drop to only 6 percent of the 1975 value (High
Growth Scenario).

     With full compliance with BAT standards, 99 percent of the cop-
per would be removed from wastewaters by 1985.  In particular, net
discharges from electric utilities and from the electroplating indus-
try would be eliminated.  That would shift the main responsibility
for copper discharges to the organic chemicals and aluminum indus-
tries.  Net discharges from the organic chemicals industry are expec-
ted to decline from 80 to 70 tons between 1975 and 2000.  However,
because other industries would eliminate net discharges of copper,
the organic chemicals industry would emerge as the source of over
two-thirds of all point source discharges of copper in 2000 (High
Growth Scenario).  The aluminum industry is projected to increase its

                                  316

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                           TABLE 6-16
        COPPER DISCHARGES FOR SELECTED INDUSTRIAL GROUPS
                          1975 and 2000
                             (TONS)

                                                 2000

Industry
Electroplating
Electric Utilities:
Old Coal
Electric Utilities:
New Coal
Electric Utilities:
Oil
Electric Utilities:
Natural Gas
Electric Utilities:
Nuclear
Other
Total0
1975
Gross Net
5,200 880

25,350 20,740




8,600 7,030

9,000 7,330

70 60
400 110
48,500 36,150
High Growth
Gross
13,200

20,300

46,050

4,500

520

530
870
85,900
Net
0 •

0

0

0

0

0
iooa
100
Low Growth
Gross
11,100

22,500

34,050

6,600

5.200

430
700
80,500
Net
0

0

0

0

0

0
iooa
100
Primarily organic chemicals and aluminum.

Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                             317

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net discharges of copper from 13 tons in 1975 to almost 30 tons in
2000 in the High Growth Scenario.

     The geographic distribution of net copper discharges in 1975 was
similar to gross generation; the Middle Atlantic, Southeast, and
Great Lakes Regions (Federal Regions 111, IV, and V) discharged the
most copper.  The waters of Federal Region V received 8.4 thousand
tons of copper; the waters of Federal Region IV, 8.1 thousand tons;
and the waters of Federal Region III, 5.5 thousand tons.  Approxi-
mately 60 percent of all the discharged copper came from coal-fired
electric utilities.

     By 2000, the regional distribution would change, due to a dras-
tic reduction in net discharges by the electric utilities.  The
Southeast and South Central Regions (Federal Regions IV and VI) are
then expected to receive almost half of the nation's total net dis-
charges of copper.  Federal Region VI, which produces one quarter of
the nation's total aluminum, is projected in the High Growth Scenario
to discharge almost 30 tons (25 tons from the aluminum industry) by
2000.  By 2000, Federal Region IV is expected to discharge 19 tons,
of which 17 tons would come from the organic chemicals industry.

     Cyanide.  Gross generation of cyanide wastes is expected to
increase substantially between 1975 and 2000, while net discharges
would decline.  From estimated 1975 discharges of 30 thousand tons,
gross discharges are projected in the High Growth Scenario to in-
crease to 80 thousand tons by 2000.  In the Low Growth Scenario,
discharges are expected to increase to 60 thousand tons.  The elec-
troplating industry is and would remain the major generator of
cyanide.

     Because cyanide is extremely toxic, discharges were strictly
controlled in 1975—only one-sixth of the total was discharged in
final effluents.  (Abatement efficiency is projected to improve
during the 1975 to 2000 period.)  Net discharges of cyanide are pro-
jected in the High Growth Scenario to decline from 5 thousand tons in
1975 to less than 4 thousand tons in 2000.  This decline derives from
the anticipated elimination of net cyanide discharges by the electro-
plating industry and a 95 percent reduction in net discharges by the
steel industry.

     Mercury.  The discharge of mercury to untreated wastewaters is
expected to decline from over 350 tons in 1975 to about 130 tons by
2000 in the High Growth Scenario and to about 100 tons in the Low
Growth Scenario.  However,  total net discharges by 2000 are estimated
to be less than 5 tons in both scenarios.   Over 99 percent of mercury
discharges came from the inorganic chemicals industry in 1975;  pro-
jections indicate that by 2000 that industry would discharge less
than 1 ton of mercury to the environment annually.

                                 318

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     The Southeast and South Central Regions (Federal Regions IV and
VI) are expected to be the major generators of gross mercury wastes.
Gross generation in Federal Region VI is expected to decrease from
over 100 tons in 1975 to under 50 tons in 2000 in the High Growth
Scenario and to about 40 tons in the Low Growth Scenario.  Federal
Regions II and III are also responsible to some extent for gross
mercury generation.  For each of these regions, as for the nation as
a whole, net discharges by 2000 would be insignificant.

     Phenol.  Phenol and phenolic compounds are present in industrial
wastewaters both as dissolved solids and as oil and grease.  In 1975,
point sources generated 17 thousand tons of phenol as dissolved
solids and 73 thousand tons as oil and grease.  Economic growth in
both scenarios and the emergence of new energy technologies are ex-
pected to increase generation of phenol to untreated wastewaters sub-
stantially over the 1975 to 2000 period.  From the 90 thousand ton
total in 1975, SEAS projections indicate that by 2000, nearly 1 mil-
lion tons of phenolic waste would be generated in the High Growth
Scenario and almost 600 thousand tons in the Low Growth Scenario.
This growth rate is wholly attributable to phenols as oil and grease,
as the amount of phenolic substances generated as dissolved solids is
actually expected to decline between 1975 and 2000.

     Economic growth in the textiles, organic chemicals, plastics,
petroleum refining, and steel industries is responsible for much of
the projected increase in phenols as oil and grease.  More important
by far, however, is the introduction of certain energy technologies
during the 1975 to 2000 period.  High- and low-Btu gasification of
coal and combined-cycle coal-fired electric generation are expected
to produce large quantities of phenol.

     In both scenarios, coal gasification and combined-cycle electric
generation account for nearly 80 percent of all waste phenols pro-
duced by point sources.  However, full compliance with BAT standards
would prevent the release of most phenolic compounds into the
environment.  This is particularly evident with respect to the coal
gasification and combined-cycle electric utility point sources.  Vir-
tually all phenols in wastewaters would be abated by these indus-
tries.  For example, of the 660 thousand tons of phenol expected to
be generated annually by 2000 during coal gasification, only 90 tons
are expected to be discharged to the environment (High Growth Sce-
nario).  Abatement practices in the coal-fired combined-cycle elec-
tric utilities are expected to be such that no phenolic compounds
would be discharged.

     Only the textiles industry is expected to discharge more phenols
as oil and grease in 2000 than in 1975.  Net discharges of phenols
from this source are projected to increase from 560 tons in 1975 to
1,500 tons annually by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  However,

                                 319

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total net discharges of phenols as oil and grease from all identified
point sources during that period are expected to decline by approxi-
mately 90 percent.  Gross generation and net discharges of phenol as
oil and grease projected by industrial point sources for 1975 and
2000 are shown in Table 6-17.

     Net discharges of phenolic substances as dissolved solids are
also expected to decline (Table 6-18).  However, this decline would
be due less to compliance with effluent limitations guidelines than
to process changes in the steel industry.   The generation of phenols
as dissolved solids waste in the steel industry is expected to
decline from 15 thousand tons  in 1975 to under 10 thousand tons annu-
ally by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario (an even greater decline is
expected in the Low Growth Scenario).  This decline is attributable
to an expected shift away from beehive coking operations in the
industry.

     Only the steel and glass  industries are expected to discharge
smaller quantities of phenols  (as dissolved solids) to the environ-
ment in 2000 than in 1975.  The textiles,  organic chemicals, and
aluminum industries all would  discharge more phenols.  As a result,
in 2000 net discharges of phenols as dissolved solids are projected
to be 2.5 times greater than net discharges of phenols as oil and
grease, despite the fact that  point sources would generate 65 times
more phenol as oil and grease  than as dissolved solids.

     Regional trends in phenol discharges vary considerably.  Regions
where the generation of phenols is expected to increase significantly
are those expected to host coal gasification facilities and coal-
fired combined-cycle power plants.  In particular, the Southeast,
South Central, Central, and Mountain Regions (Federal Regions IV, VI,
VII, and VIII) are projected to experience considerable growth in
these emerging technologies.  As a consequence, phenols in untreated
wastestreams in Federal Region VIII are projected in the High Growth
Scenario to increase from 2 thousand tons to nearly 350 thousand tons
annually by 2000.  Increases in the generation of phenols in Federal
Regions IV, VI, and VII, although less, are nonetheless significant.
Full compliance with effluent  limitations guidelines by new technolo-
gies should, however, reduce net discharges of phenol.

     The Middle Atlantic, Great Lakes, and South Central Regions
(Federal Regions III, V, and VI) are projected to experience signi-
ficant declines in net discharges of phenols.  In Federal Regions III
and V, net discharges are projected in the High Growth Scenario to
decline from over 3 thousand tons in 1975 to less than 500 tons by
2000.  This is attributable primarily to assumed compliance with
effluent limitations guidelines by the steel industry, which would
mean removal of virtually all  phenols from wastewaters.  In Federal
Region VI, net discharges of phenol are projected to decline from

                                320

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                            TABLE 6-17
             PHENOL (AS OIL AND GREASE) DISCHARGES FOR
                    SELECTED INDUSTRIAL GROUPS
                           1975 and 2000
                              (TONS)
                        1975
2000
Industrial Group
Textiles
Organic Chemicals
Plastics
Petroleum Refining
and Storage
Steel
Coal — Synthetic
Fuels
Electric Utilities
Coal
Total3
Gross
560
28,800
1,400
41,400
1,100
0
0
73,300
High Growth
Net Gross Net
560 1,500 1,500
11,100 84,700 160
200 4,500 10
1,300 59,900 0
960 1,900 10
0 663,000 90
0 117,000 0
14,100 973,500 1,750
Low
Gross
1,000
63,900
4,000
50,000
1,700
437,000
19,500
582,100
Growth
Net
1,000
130
10
0
10
60
0
1,210
TABLE 6-18
PHENOL (AS DISSOLVED SOLIDS) DISCHARGES FOR
SELECTED INDUSTRIAL GROUPS
1975 and 2000
(TONS)
Industrial Group
Textiles
Organic Chemicals
Glass
Steel
Aluminum
Other
Total3

Gross
50
1,500
460
15,000
270
3
17,300
1975
High Growth
Net Gross Net
50 120 120
1,500 3,600 3,600
70 920 0
3,300 9,300 30
270 630 630
3 10 10
5,300 14,600 4,400
2000
Low
Gross
160
2,600
870
8,300
600
10
12,400

Growth
Net
160
2,600
0
30
600
10
3,300
Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                321

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over 7 thousand tons in 1975 to 350 tons by 2000, despite considera-
ble growth in coal gasification output.

     The Southeast Region (Federal Region IV) is host to a large pro-
portion of the organic chemicals industry at present and projections
indicate an increase in the region's share over time.  This is re-
flected in the considerable projected growth in the generation of
phenols by the industry.  Gross loadings of phenol, both as dissolved
solids and as oil and grease, are projected to increase from 16 thou-
sand tons in 1975 to 53 thousand tons annually by 2000 in the High
Growth Scenario.

     However, nearly all phenolic compounds generated by the industry
are expected to be in the form of dissolved solids.  Compliance with
BAT standards would reduce the quantity of phenols in this form con-
siderably.  (On the other hand, no removal of phenols as oil and
grease is anticipated in current projections.)

     Discharges of phenols by the aluminum industry are expected to
be a primary factor in Southeast Region trends.  Regional net dis-
charges are projected to decline by one-fourth over the 1975 to 2000
period in the region, despite considerable improvements expected in
wastewaters discharged by the steel, organic chemicals, plastics, and
petroleum refining industries, since net discharges by the aluminum
industry are projected in the High Growth Scenario to increase from
60 tons in 1975 to over 160 tons annually by 2000.  In addition, only
marginal improvement is expected in the treatment of phenols by the
textiles industry, so net discharges in Federal Region IV would
decline only from 1.5 thousand tons in 1975 to 1.1 thousand tons by
2000.

     Other Pollutants

     Several other kinds of pollutants can seriously degrade water
quality and decrease its value for various uses, including recrea-
tion.  This section examines four such pollutants: chemical oxygen
demand (COD), fecal coliform bacteria, pH, and thermal pollution.
Projections of gross COD loadings are made by SEAS, but the latter
three pollutants are not addressed in the model and data and projec-
tions from other sources are used to examine them.

     SEAS projections do not estimate net discharges from some indus-
trial point sources; this shortcoming is taken into account, to the
extent possible, in the following analysis of national and regional
trends.

     Chemical Oxygen Demand.  Chemical oxygen demand measures the
total quantity of oxygen required to oxidize wastes and natural oxy-
gen demanding substances to carbon dioxide and water under severe

                                 322

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chemical and physical conditions.  Because more compounds can be
chemically oxidized than can be biologically oxidized, the COD of a
waste is generally higher than its BOD and thus the indicator is
invariably a more inclusive measure of oxygen demand than is BOD.

     Compounds which are more resistant to biological oxidation are
attracting greater concern not only because of their slow but con-
tinuing oxygen demand on the receiving water, but also because of
their potential effects on human health and aquatic life.  Many of
these substances have been found to have carcinogenic, mutagenic, and
other adverse effects.  Concern about these substances has increased
as a result of demonstrations that they can contaminate downstream
water intakes.  The commonly used disinfectants do not remove them
from drinking water, and chlorination may actually convert them into
even more hazardous materials.

     Gross generation of COD is expected to increase substantially
between 1975 and 2000, as shown in Table 6-19.  From estimated 1975
generation of 20 million tons, annual gross COD loadings are pro-
jected in the High Growth Scenario to increase to 34 million tons by
2000.  In the Low Growth Scenario, the increase in gross generation
is expected to be less, but still significant—30 million tons
annually by 2000.

     In contrast to gross generation, net discharges^ of COD are
projected to decline slightly between 1975 and 2000 in both scenar-
ios.  From a 1975 estimate of 7.6 million tons, annual net COD dis-
charges are expected to decline to 7.1 million tons in the High
Growth Scenario.  The expected decline is greater in the Low Growth
Scenario, with discharges expected to be 6.6 million tons by 2000.
The relative improvement in net discharge trends compared to gross
generation occurs because net discharges are projected to decline
between 1975 and 1985 as a result of the full compliance with efflu-
ent limitations guidelines assumed for industrial point sources by
1985.

     There are six major industrial sources of COD—organic chemi-
cals, meat products processing, petroleum refining and storage, tex-
tiles, plastics, and electric utilities.  Together they generated
 ^Projections of net discharges of COD, as calculated by SEAS,
  cannot be used because of incomplete information in the SEAS data
  base.  To project net COD discharges, the removal of BOD from each
  industry was applied to COD discharges from those same industries.
  The percentage similarity between BOD and COD is the justification
  for using this procedure.
                                323

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                                   TABLE 6-19
                 COD DISCHARGES FOR SELECTED INDUSTRIAL GROUPS
                                 1975 and 2000
                              (THOUSANDS OF TONS)
                            1975
2000
High Growth
Industrial Group
Municipal
Wastewater
Treatment
Facilities
Organic Chemicals
Meat Processing
Petroleum Refining
and Storage
Textiles
Plastics
Electric Utilities
Other
Total3
Gross
15,000
990
670
300
490
290
750
1,150
19,640
Net
6,040
250
100
60
110
80
750
250
7,600
Gross
21,000
2,700
1,060
400
1,100
1,200
1,200
5,340
34,000
Net
5,160
370
130
20
30
60
1,200
80
7,060
Low Growth
Gross
19,800
2,100
910
350
770
940
1,200
3,850
29,900
Net
4,840
290
170
20
20
50
1,200
6,560
6,560
aRounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                      324

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three-fourths of the industrial COD in 1975 and discharged 90
percent.

     The organic chemicals industry is expected to be the most sig-
nificant industrial source between 1975 and 2000.  In 1975, that
industry generated almost 1 million tons of COD, 20 percent of all
COD generated by industry.  This relative contribution is expected to
remain about the same, so that by 2000, gross generation of COD by
the organic chemicals industry would increase to 2.7 million tons
annually.

     The predominant contributor to trends in net COD discharges is
municipal wastewater treatment facilities.  These treatment plants
were responsible for 6 out of 8 million tons of net point source dis-
charges of COD in 1975.  Although compliance with BAT standards is
expected to be successful in removing a greater percentage of COD
generated by 1985, municipal plants are still expected to discharge 5
million tons in 2000.  Throughout the entire 1975 to 2000 time per-
iod, treatment plants are expected to be responsible for 70 to 75
percent of all point source discharges of COD.

     The prominence of municipal treatment plants in COD generation
estimates results in distinctive regional impacts.  For the most
part, regions which have the greatest increases in population will
also have the greatest increases in COD.  The South Central Region
(Federal Region VI) is expected to have the greatest increase in
generation of COD between 1975 and 2000—an increase of 72 percent.
Not only is the region expected to have a 34 percent increase in
population, but its COD waste from industrial sources are expected to
triple.  The Southeast Region (Federal Region IV) is expected to have
the greatest increase in population, which is the principal reason
for the expected 54 percent increase in gross generation of COD
between 1975 and 2000.

     Federal Region IV is the only region expected to have an
increase in net discharges of COD.  In 1975 net discharges were esti-
mated to be 800 thousand tons, while by 2000 they are expected to
increase to 900 thousand tons.  Not only is the population increase
of 37 percent responsible for this projected increase, but also a
greater percentage of the population is expected to be on centralized
treatment, further increasing the discharges of COD.

      Fecal Coliform Bacteria.   Bacterial densities are a standard
measure of the potential for public health problems or disease prob-
lems for aquatic life.^^  Pathogenic bacteria—those which threaten
     . Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water & Hazardous
  Materials, Quality Criteria for Water, Washington, DC, July 1976,
  p. 44.
                                  325

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human health—make up only a small proportion of all bacteria in
water.  But since pathogens are difficult to detect directly, counts
of all fecal coliform bacteria are used as an indicator of the pre-
sence of pathogens in water bodies.  These counts are expressed in
terms of the mean number of fecal coliform colonies per 100 milli-
liters.  This measure assumes that polluted waterways are likely to
contain pathogens in proportion to the concentration of fecal coli-
form bacteria.  The validity of this surrogate is often ques-
tioned,^ but the number of fecal coliforms is at least indicative
of the degree of health risk associated with using certain water
sources for drinking, swimming, or shellfish harvesting.^-*

     Recommended water quality standards for swimming suggest a maxi-
mum log mean fecal coliform bacteria count of 200 colonies per 100
milliliters.  Although EPA previously used this standard as part of
their definition of secondary treatment of wastewater, it has been
eliminated.  As a result, it can no longer be assumed that municipal
treatment plants will discharge only 200 fecal coliform per 100 mil-
liliters of treated wastewaters.

     Other water quality standards apply to shellfish harvesting
waters, which should not exceed 14 colonies per 100 milliliters. "
Raw waters used as sources for public water supplies ought not to
contain more than 2,000 fecal coliform colonies per 100 milliliters.
The standard for drinking water after treatment is as low as 1 colony
per 100 milliliters. '  However, actual legal standards for fecal
coliform bacteria concentrations in streams are determined by the
states.  Although most state standards are generally similar to those
above, large differences exist in some instances.

     Coliform bacteria are discharged from both point and non—point
sources.  In urban areas, major sources include inadequately disin-
fected municipal wastewater, urban stormwater runoff, and combined
sewer overflow.  In rural areas, feedlots, stock grazing areas, and
malfunctioning septic systems are important sources.  As a result,
^National Commission on Water Quality, Staff Draft Report,
  Washington, D.C., July 1976, p. 44.
^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water & Hazardous
  Materials, Quality Criteria for Water, Washington, D.C. , July
  1976, p. 44.
46Ibid, p. 42.
^U.S. Geological Survey, Quality of Rivers of the United States,
  1974 Water Year—Based on the National Stream Quality Accounting
  Network, (NASQAN), Open-File Report 77-151, Reston, Virginia,
  February 1977, p. 33.


                                 326

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fecal coliform bacterial concentrations tend to be high in water
bodies near urban areas, in livestock-raising areas, and in areas
where streams have flow rates too low to dilute feedlot runoff. °

     Trends in average violation rates^9 in water around 25 major
cities in the United States indicate that coliform bacteria counts
improved slightly over the 1968 to 1976 period.50  Violation rates
downstream from 18 cities declined, but they increased in 4 cities
and remained unchanged in 2 others.  Overall, an average 10 percent
decline in violation rates was noted, which can be attributed to
improved treatment of sewage by municipalities.51  Bacteria levels
upstream from these urban areas have also tended to decline, although
not as markedly as downstream levels.

     Despite this improvement, fecal coliform bacterial counts
exceeded the recommended maximum for safe swimming in almost 60 per-
cent of all samples.  Geographical variations exist in violation
rates; while the standard was exceeded only 25 percent "of the time in
two cities sampled, several cities exceeded the standard in over 75
percent of all samples taken.

     No consistent projections of fecal coliform bacterial contamina-
tion are known to exist at the national level.  However, the National
Commission on Water Quality has attempted to assess the impacts of
effluent limitations guidelines for municipal treatment facilities on
water quality at 41 sites in the United States from which trends can
be inferred.->2  in 1975, 70 percent of the 41 sites were found to
continuously violate coliform bacterial criteria levels.  Assumed
confonuance by municipal treatment plants to 1977 secondary treatment
standards could reduce this proportion of sites to 15 percent (Figure
6-12).  Control of combined sewer overflows, if achieved by 1983,
would reduce the number of sites with continuous excessive fecal
coliform bacterial counts to 5 percent of sites.
          on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality—1977,
  U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., December 1977,
  p. 203.
    violation rate is the percent of water samples that exceed 200
  colonies per 100 milliliters.
^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality—1977,
  U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., December 1977,
  p. 211.
5^National Commission on Water Quality, Staff Draft Report,
  Washington, D.C., November 1975, p. IV-40.
52Ibid.
                                 327

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-------
     Periodic fecal coliform bacterial contamination would still be
expected in most areas studied because of discharges from non-point
sources.  As greater control of bacterial discharges from municipal
treatment plants and combined sewer overflow is achieved, agricul-
tural and urban runoff are projected to become more evident as
sources of coliform bacterial pollution.  This shift from point to
non-point sources is likely to produce greater benefits than those
attributable simply to lower bacterial concentrations.  Since coli-
forms and most pathogenic bacteria die off fairly rapidly in the
natural environment, their discharge to waterways on a more intermit-
tent basis, which characterizes non-point pollution, is anticipated
to detract less from ambient water quality than continuous point
source discharges.

     Since the National Commission on Water Quality report predated
the Clean Water Act of 1977 with its revised compliance schedule, and
did not incorporate reported delays in the Construction Grants Pro-
gram, its projections of water quality in sampled regions are probab-
ly optimistic.  Data for 1977" indicate that widespread bacterial
pollution problems still exist, with little change in water quality
observed over the 1975 to 1977 period.  Fewer than 10 percent of all
National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations showed a
decline in fecal coliform bacterial counts over that period.  How-
ever, compliance with effluent limitations guidelines by municipali-
ties could eventually reduce bacterial pollution from point sources,
even though control of bacteria from non-point sources will still be
a problem.

     pH.  The pH of a water sample is a measure of the concentration
of hydrogen ions in it, and indicates acidity or alkalinity of the
composite solution.  The range of pH is from 0 to 14; a pH value of 1
is very acidic (e.g., battery acid), pH 7 is neutral (e.g., distilled
water) and pH 13 is very alkaline (e.g., lye).  The lower the pH
value, the more hydrogen ions in the solution and the stronger the
acid.  Because pH is expressed on a logarithmic scale, a change in
one pH unit reflects a 10-fold change in acidity or alkalinty.

     Usually, water is considered habitable to marine species if its
pH value lies within the range of 6.5 to 9.0.  Outside this range,
     .  Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water Planning
  and Standards, National Water Quality Inventory; 1977 Report to
  Congress, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C.,
  October 1978, p. 2.  Also, Council on Environmental Quality,
  Environmental Quality—1978, U.S. Government Printing Office,
  Washington, D.C., December 1978, p. 46.
                                 329

-------
fish suffer adverse physiological effects which become more severe as
the deviation from these values increases.  It has been shown that at
pH levels below 5.6, the reproductive capability of adult fish and
the survival ability of eggs and young fish decline and eventually
fail.  Below pH 5 the survival of even large fish becomes precarious.
Since all aquatic organisms are affected, surviving fish must also
contend with reduced food variety.54  in addition to its direct
effects, pH influences the toxicities of many compounds in water.
For example, aluminum and cyanide toxicity to fish increased as the
pH is lowered, while increasing pH levels promote higher concentra-
tions of ammonia in water, which is also toxic to marine life."

     The incidence of low pH in the water is primarily a problem in
the eastern part of the United States.  Studies have shown a dramatic
decline in the pH of waterways in the northeastern United States and
Canada between the 1950s and the mid-1970s.  Over 100 lakes in the
Adirondack Mountains of New York are now devoid of fish because of
increased acidity.->"

     The evident cause of declining pH in water is acid precipita-
tion, which occurs when oxides of sulfur and nitrogen are emitted
into the atmosphere and then fall back to earth as solutions in rain.
These acids are generated primarily from vast quantities of combus-
tion gases from the burning of fossil fuels.  As the nation is expec-
ted to burn more coal, the problem of high acidity in the water is
expected to increase.  As a result, problems associated with low pH
counts are expected to become of greater concern throughout the coun-
try.  (See Chapters 4 and 5 for further discussions of acid precipi-
tation.)

     Maintaining a suitable level of pH in the raw water used for
public water supplies helps control the corrosion of plant equipment
and water pipes.  Such corrosion can be expensive, and can release
toxic metal ions such as copper, lead, zinc, and cadmium to the
drinking water supply.

     Thermal Pollution.  Temperature changes in receiving waters
caused by industrial discharges can have profound effects upon water
quality.  These effects range from discomfort for swimmers in water
5^Glass, N.R., "Mounting Acid Rain," EPA Journal, July/August 1979.
55(j.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water and Hazard-
  ous Materials, Quality Criteria for Water, U.S. Government Printing
  Office, Washington, D.C., July 1976, p. 178.
56Ibid.
                                  330

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outside the 20°C to 30°C range to a restructuring of aquatic ecosys-
tems. '  Demands upon the dissolved oxygen in water are increased
by higher temperatures, which accelerate the decomposition of organic
matter.  This process is exacerbated by the lower solubility of
oxygen in warm water.  In addition, available data indicate that
toxicity of some pollutants increases at higher temper at ures.-*°

     Projections of thermal pollution discharges are not attempted in
SEAS.  However, in this section we identify the main sources of
thermal pollution and discuss mandated restrictions on industrial
dischargers.

     Thermal discharges primarily result from the use of water for
cooling (Table 6-20).  Steam electric power plants are major sources,
accounting for 90 percent of the water used for cooling purposes.
Other major sources include the steel products and inorganic chemi-
cals industries.

     Control of thermal discharges was mandated in the Federal Water
Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972.59  According to proposed
EPA guidelines for steam electric power plants, generating units of
500 MW and over placed in service before January 1, 1970 would have
no restriction on cooling water discharges; those placed in service
after that date were to have no discharges.  Plants of 25 to 499 MW
capacity would not be limited if the facility was in service before
January 1, 1974; no discharges were permitted from plants in that
capacity range after that date.  No discharge restrictions were
placed on units less than 25 MW."^  Although the courts have
remanded these federal guidelines,"^ many states have adopted simi-
lar guidelines to control thermal discharges.
         , D.P., "Theoretical Considerations of the Effects of
  Heated Effluents on Marine Fishes," in P.A. Krenkel and F.C.
  Parker, eds., Biological Aspects of Thermal Pollution, Vanderbllt
  University Press, Nashville, Tennessee, 1969.
58coutant, C.C., "Biological Aspects of Thermal Pollution II
  Scientific Bases for Quality Criteria Standards at Power Plants,"
  CRC Critical Review in Environment Contamination, Vol. 3, 1972.
^Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, PL 92-
  500.
""U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Development Documents for
  Effluent Limitations Guidelines and New Source Performance Stan-
  dards for the Steam Electric Power Generating Point Source Cate-
  gory, EPA 440/1-74029-a, U.S. Government Printing Office,
  Washington, B.C., October 1974, p. 5.
61FERC 1033, Appalachian Power v. Train, 4th Circuit Court, 1976.

                                  331

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                                 TABLE 6-20
                COOLING WATER USED BY SELECTED  INDUSTRIES
                    (BILLIONS OF GALLONS  USED IN 1968a)
                       Use  for Cooling
Industrial Air Steam Elec- Other Total Use,
Group Conditioning trie Power Cooling Process Waters
Pulp & Paper 16 389 204 1,916
Inorganic
Chemicals 30 613 2,075 3,368
Plastics &
Synthetics 56 61 372 635
Petroleum
Refining &
Storage 3 167 1,056 1,427
Steel Products 25 1,147 2,046 4,392
Stesm Electric
Power — 40,000 — 40,000
Use for Cooling
as Percent
of Total
24
65

59

74
47

99
      use as measured by intake  (reuse or  recirculation  not included).

Source:  National Commission on Water Quality, Staff Draft Report, Washington, D.C..
        November 1975, p. IV-22.
                                    332

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     Water quality impacts from thermal discharges relate closely to
the characteristics of receiving waters.  Estuaries, with complex
patterns of fresh and saline water and large populations of marine
organisms, are very sensitive to cooling system discharges.  In con-
trast, freshwater impoundments appear to be either insensitive to
thermal impacts or able to adapt to them, although changes in the lo-
cal ecosystem can result in the process of adaptation."2

     Little information is available for forecasting thermal dis-
charges.  The National Commission on Water Quality attempted to pre-
dict the number of existing and planned steam electric power plants
that, by 1983, would be required to use alternatives to "once-
through" cooling systems, taking into account exemptions permitted in
the 1972 Act.63  Their estimates and some EPA estimates given in
the same report, on the need for alternative cooling systems are
shown in Table 6-21.  However, because site-specific data were not
considered, these estimates are highly uncertain.

     Further uncertainty still exists as to whether state limitations
guidelines for thermal discharges can be enforced in light of thermal
exemptions permitted by the FWPCA Amendments of 1972.  More research
is necessary before reliable estimates of thermal discharges and
their associated impacts can be projected into the future.

6.3  NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTANTS

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.3

o  Water pollution from non-point sources is estimated to affect
   about 90 percent of the drainage basins in the United States.
   Pollution discharges from non-point sources greatly exceed the
   discharges from point sources.  Non-point loadings are generally
   accompanied by high dilution; therefore their impact on water
   quality is uncertain.  Uncontrolled non-point source pollution may
   contribute to prevent achieving national water quality goals.

o  Agricultural activities have the most widespread pollution impact
   of all non-point sources, followed by urban runoff.  Combined
   sewer overflows cause some problems, primarily in the eastern
   United States.  Discharges from these sources (in the absence of
   controls) are projected to increase from 1975 to 2000 in almost
   all Federal Regions.
^National Commission on Water Quality, Staff Draft Report,
  Washington, B.C., November 1975, p. IV-44.
63Ibid.
                                  333

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                               TABLE 6-21
                   COMPARISON OF ESTIMATES OF NEEDS FOR
                 ALTERNATIVE POWER PLANT COOLING SYSTEMS'
Type of Water
Source Receiving
Thermal Loadings
      Percent of Power Plants
Needing Alternative Cooling Systems

Oceans
Estuaries
Rivers
Rivers / Impoundments
Impoundments
Lakes
Man-Made Lakes
Estimate by National
Commission on Water Quality
20
62
20
100
0
10
0
Estimate
by EPA
0
50
26
NA
NA
50
NA
    Plants at which continuation of "once-through" cooling will damage
   indigenous population.

   Source:  National Commission on Water Quality, Staff Draft Report,
            Washington, B.C.,  November 1975, p. IV-43.
                                   334

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o  Mining and construction activities can have substantial localized
   water pollution impacts; increase in these activities from 1975 to
   2000 may cause intermittent problems.  Silviculture has caused
   localized pollution but is not expected to have significant long-
   term effects.

o  In volume, the major non-point source pollutant is sediment, and
   cropland is responsible for almost half of that total.  However,
   other pollutants—BOD, nutrients, toxics, pesticides, and acids—
   can also be significant because even small quantities can affect
   ecological systems.

o  Little progress has been made in controlling non-point source pol-
   lution.  However, if use of Best Management Practices that promote
   proper land use becomes widespread, non-point source discharges by
   2000 might be reduced below 1975 levels.

6.3.1  Introduction

     Problem Definition and Regulatory Background

     Non-point sources of pollution generally involve the contamina-
tion of receiving waters by stormwater runoff.  These diffuse sources
discharge pollutants to the nation's waters on an intermittent basis,
because stormwater runoff and the pollutant source (e.g., construc-
tion, timber harvesting) are not continuous processes.  Thus, the
impacts on water quality from non-point sources are storm event re-
lated.

     Although non-point source water pollution may be less concen-
trated and conspicuous than pollution from industrial and municipal
point sources, non-point source pollution is estimated to be greater
in overall magnitude than point source discharges:

     o  Sediment loads from man-made non-point sources are
        estimated to be 360 times higher than those from
        municipal and industrial point sources after
        treatment, and three times higher than those from
        natural background.

     o  Biochemical oxygen demand from non-point sources is
        estimated to be five times higher than either
        treated point sources or natural background.

     o  Total nitrogen from non-point sources is estimated to
        be four times higher than that from treated point
        sources and three times higher than natural back-
        ground.  Total phosphorus from non-point sources is

                                 335

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        slightly higher than from point sources and twice as
        high as natural background.

     o  Loadings of fecal coliform bacteria from non-point sources
        will be at least 50 times higher than from point sources,
        once secondary treatment with disinfection is achieved for
        all municipal sources.  ^

Moreover, since non-point source discharges of pollutants can gener-
ally occur anywhere along a water body, they ordinarily cannot be
handled by collection and treatment.

     Non-point sources of pollutants include agriculture, some min-
ing, urban and rural construction, sewered and unsewered urban storm-
water runoff, silviculture, and hydrologic modifications (i.e. ,
dredging, excavating, or dam installation), and those releases aris-
ing from land not disturbed by man's activities (i.e., natural back-
ground sources). ^  Although EPA promotes the use of Best Manage-
ment Practices (BMP's) to reduce water pollution from some of these
sources, non-point sources are especially difficult to control, and
are not subject to EPA effluent guidelines.  Moreover, even with the
control of man originated non-point source pollution, pollution
releases would still result from natural background sources.  Conse-
quently, non-point source problems from both man originated activi-
ties and natural background sources could stand in the way of
achieving "water quality which provides for the protection and propa-
gation of fish, shellfish, and wildlife and provides for recreation
in and on the water"66 by 1983.67

     Water quality planning and management under Section 208 of the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 is the primary
vehicle for promoting control of non-point source pollution.  Indeed,
^Statement of Douglas Costle, Administrator, Environmental Pro-
  tection Agency, before the Subcommittee on Oversight and Review,
  Committee on Public Works and Transportation, U.S. House of Repre-
  sentatives, July 18, 1979, pp. 8-11.
6^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Methods for Identifying
  and Evaluating the Nature and Extent of Nonpoint Sources of Pollut-
  ants, EPA 430/9-73-014, October 1973, p. 1.
66Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA) Amendments of 1972,
  PL 92-500, 86 Stat. U.S.C., 1251(a).
67Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality - 1978,
  U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C., December 1978,
  p. 118.
                                  336

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the first 109 planning agencies established under Section 208 identi-
fied urban stormwater and agricultural and construction runoff as
principal sources of water quality problems, with many agencies indi-
cating that urban runoff is the greatest single source of local and
downstream pollution.""

     Across the country, non-point sources of pollution affect almost
90 percent of the EPA-designated hydrological drainage basins."^
Pollution from agricultural activities and urban storm runoff (68
percent and 52 percent of the basins, respectively) is the most wide-
spread, while pollution from construction activities is least wide-
spread (Table 6-22).  However, the concentration of different
non-point sources varies considerably in the different parts of the
country.  For example, while surface waters in the North Central and
South Central areas are highly affected by agricultural runoff, they
are almost free from effect by construction or silvicultural activi-
ties.

     In volume, the major pollutant from non-point sources is sedi-
ment (suspended solids and dissolved solids) from soil erosion, but
many other pollutants produce problems in surface waters (Table
6-23).  Indeed, problems from bacteria, oxygen depletion and nutri-
ents are as widespread as those from suspended solids.  Acidity (pH)
problems affect almost 40 percent of the drainage basins in the Great
Lakes area.  Mining activities (notably metals mining) and urban
runoff contribute to common problems with toxic materials in other
parts of the country, and many agricultural areas have problems from
pesticide pollution.

     Cropland yields about 40 percent of the total sediment in inland
waterways (Figure 6-13).  However, construction and surface mining
can yield large quantities of sediment per acre (about 10 times that
produced per acre by cropland) in small areas (Table 6-24).  Hence,
sediment from these sources can have a very adverse localized impact
on both water quality and costs of water supply and stormwater man-
agement.  Well managed forests can be exceptionally free of erosion
and sediment pollution, but soils in forests disturbed by natural
disasters or by logging are erodible. ^  Together, logged and
""Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality - 1978,
  U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C., December, 1978,
  p. 118.
"^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
  Inventory/1977 Report to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, October 1978,
  p. 15.
'^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Methods for Identifying and
  Evaluating the Nature and Extent of Nonpoint Sources of Pollutants,
  EPA 430/9-73-014, October 1973, p. vii.

                                  337

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                                                TABLE 6-22
                             DRAINAGE BASINS AFFECTEDa BY NON-POINT SOURCES OF
                                  POLLUTION, BY TYPE OF NON-POINT SOURCE
                                                   1977
                                                      Percent of Basins Affected
00
Geographical
Region^
Northeast
Southeast
Great Lakes
North Central
South Central
Southwest
Northwest
Islands
Total
•a
Basins where
Number of
Basins
40
47
41
35
30
22
22
9
246
some (or all)
Urban
Runoff
70
57
54
54
50
23
23
67
52
stream
Q
Agriculture
55
62
59
89
87
73
55
78
68
segments have a
Mining
20
15
41
40
53
36
23
0
30
problem with
Silviculture
10
30
15
6
13
5
27
0
15
a pollutant that
Construction
15
2
7
6
0
0
23
67
9
is not minor
       or insignificant, according to state officials.

       Note that the regional drainage basin groupings used here do not conform precisely to the 10
       Federal Regions used in the discharge trends analyses.

       Does not reflect drainage basins affected by combined sewer overflows.

      Source:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality Inventory:1977 Report
               to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, Washington, D.C., October 1978, p. 15.

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                                                      TABLE 6-23
                                  DRAINAGE BASINS  AFFECTED3 BY NON-POINT SOURCES OF
                                       POLLUTION,  BY TYPE OF POLLUTION PROBLEM
                                                         1977
VO
Geographical
Region^
Northeast
Southeast
Great Lakes
North Central
South Central
Southwest
Northwest
Islands
Total
a
Basins where
insignificant
Note that the
Regions used
Source: U.S.
Number of
Basins
40
47
41
35
30
22
22
. 9
246
some (or all)
, according to
Bacteria
70
66
51
69
53-
36
64
89
61
Oxygen
Depletion
(BOD)
53
74
54
66
43
14
18
44
51
stream segments have
state officials.
regional drainage basin
in the discharge trends
Environmental
Protection
groupings
analyses.
Suspended Dissolved Oil and
Nutrients Solids Solids pH Grease Toxics Pesticides
63
57
44
63
63
45
55
44
56
a problem
used here
65
34
56
80
37
32
64
100
54
(with the
10
4
27
51
70
68
14
0
30
given pollutant)
18
9
37
20
23
14
9
0
18
that
do not conform precisely Lo the
Agency, National Water Quality
Inventory/ 1977
Report
15
4
20
0
3
14
5
0
9
is
10
to
33
11
34
51
47
27
32
22
32
not minor or
Federal
Congress,
18
23
15
37
40
0
0
44
22



                     EPA 440/4-78-001, Washington, D.C., October 1978, p.  16.

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                              TABLE 6-24
                   REPRESENTATIVE RATES OF EROSION
                        FROM VARIOUS LAND USES
Land Use
Amount of Erosion
  (Tons/Square
   Mile/Year)
Rate of Erosion
  Relative To
  Forest = 1
Forest
Grassland
Abandoned Surface
Mines
Cropland
Harvested Forest
Active Surface
Mines
Construction
Source : U.S. Environmental
ing and Evaluating
24
240

2,400
4,800
12,000

48,000
48,000
Protection
the Nature
1
10

100
200
500

2,000
2,000
Agency, Methods For Identify-
and Extent of Nonpoint Source
         of Pollutants. EPA 430/9-73-014, Washington, D.C., October
         1973, p.  6.
                                      341

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unlogged forest land is estimated to yield less than 10 percent of
the total sediment.  As a result of sediment deposition, many harbors
and rivers become severly clogged and require dredging.  Disposal of
this dredged material (which requires a permit issued under Section
404 of the Federal Water Pollution Act), produces ocean pollution
problems as well (see Section 9.3 for further discussion).

     Two major sources of non-point source water pollution, urban
runoff and agricultural runoff, are discussed in detail in this
section.  Other non-point sources are included but releases are not
projected, as the SEAS model does not yet have this capability.

     Relevant Scenario Assumptions

     For both High Growth and Low Growth Scenarios, projections of
non-point source pollution deal with gross discharges of various
pollutants.  In urban runoff, this refers to discharges that would
occur in the absence of any control and corrective measures, such as
Best Management Practices or conventional storage and treatment prac-
tices.  In agricultural runoff, this refers to discharges that would
occur in the absence of additional soil conservation measures, such
as more extensive use of BMP's, and significant changes in the cur-
rent trends in fertilizer and pesticide use.  Net discharges (i.e. ,
expected discharges after corrective and control measures are ap-
plied) are not discussed in detail because the extent to which these
types of controls will be applied is difficult to foresee, and be-
cause the degree of control varies both across urban areas and across
crop production systems and geographic regions.

     In addition, the gross discharge estimates for urban and agri-
cultural runoff do not reflect just the incremental increases in
releases as a result of man's activities on urban and rural areas;
that is, non-point releases that would have commonly occurred (i.e. ,
the natural background releases if the land had not been disturbed)
have not been deleted from the projections because the discharge
trends are most meaningful when they reflect releases given existing
land use activities.

     Trends in gross pollutant discharges from 1975 to 2000 for urban
and agricultural runoff are assumed to be largely a function of popu-
lation growth and economic activity.  Variations in pollutant dis-
charges between scenarios can be tied solely to differing assumptions
about population growth and economic activity, since all other
assumptions are the same in both scenarios.  Methods and scenario
assumptions are discussed in more detail in the introductions to
urban and agricultural runoff.
                                 342

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     Data Sources and Quality

     The introductory sections to urban and agricultural runoff
 provide detailed information about the data sources and the quality
 of  the data used in  each  projection method.  The methods used  in
 projecting gross non-point pollutant runoff represent the state-of-
 the-art in modeling  urban and agricultural runoff.  These projections
 are approximations of what pollutant releases may be like in the
 future; they are not intended as precise forecasts.  The amounts in
 these projections may differ from some other estimates, but the
 regional distribution and trends in discharges are believed, in any
 case, to represent a reasonable picture of urban and agricultural
 runoff.

     Organization of Discussion

     The next sections discuss urban runoff (Section 6.3.2) and agri-
 cultural runoff (Section  6.3.3).  In each section, an introduction
 describes the type of problem that exists, the major pollutants, the
 control and corrective measures available, and the method used to
 project discharge trends.  The scenario assumptions relating to the
 discharge trends are presented and the accuracy of the projections is
 assessed.  National  and regional discharge trends are then presented.
 For urban runoff, all pollutants are discussed together; for agricul-
 tural runoff, the discussion is divided into sediments, nutrients,
 and pesticides.  Toxic pollutants are not included in either the
 urban or agricultural runoff trends because of data deficiencies
 described in Section 6.2.1.

     In Section 6.3.4, other non-point sources (mining, silviculture,
 and construction) are discussed in somewhat less detail.  Problems
 and the major pollutants  associated with each activity are presented,
 and the effect of these activities on current water quality—that is,
 where these activities are currently causing concern—is described.

 6.3.2  Urban Runoff

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.3.2

o  Urban runoff is a significant factor in the degradation of our
   nation's waters,  affecting half of all drainage basins.

o  Discharges from urban  sources (including combined sewer overflows,
   storm sewered runoff, and unsewered stormwater runoff),  in the
   absence of controls,  are projected to increase between 1975 and
   2000.
                                 343

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o  The Southeast and South Central Regions (Federal Regions IV and
   VI), which are. projected to have the greatest increases in popu-
   lation, are also projected to have the greatest increases in urban
   pollutant discharges.

o  The regional distribution of urban pollutant discharges varies be-
   cause of population density, urban land use types, precipitation
   patterns, and area served by different types of sewer systems.
   The Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V)  contributes about 25
   percent of the pollution, the Southeast and New York-New Jersey
   Regions (Federal Regions IV and II) together about 30 percent, but
   the drier, less urbanized Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII)
   contributes only 1 percent.

     Introduction

     Urban rainfall runoff has been cited as a cause of degraded
water quality in populous areas and contains almost all types of pol-
lutants.  Suspended sediments and toxic substances, particularly
heavy metals, cause the most harm, but bacteria, oxygen-demanding
materials, nutrients, and oil and grease are also problems. ^

     Pollutants in urban stormwater runoff come from air pollutants
that settle in streets, organic debris, animal wastes, and discarded
litter'^—materials that defy efforts at measurement, or even at
estimation of magnitude.  For example, it was estimated in the 1976
National Residuals Discharge Inventory that urban runoff (including
combined overflows) generated about 1.7 million tons of biochemical
oxygen demand and about 30 million tons of total suspended solids
(TSS) annually; however, it was noted that those estimates may err by
at least one order of magnitude.^3

     Across the country, about half of the drainage basins are now
polluted by urban runoff (Figure 6-14).  The highest percentage of
affected basins (about 70 percent) is in the densely populated New
England, New York-New Jersey, and Middle Atlantic Regions (Federal
'^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
  Inventory/1977 Report to Congress, EPA-440/4-78-001, October 1978.
^Midwest Research Institute, Loading Functions for Assessment of
  Water Pollution From Nonpoint Sources, EPA 600/2-76-151,  prepared
  for and published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
  Office of Research and Development, May 1976, p. 186.
^Luken, R.A., D.J. Basta, and E.H. Pechan, The National Residuals
  Discharge Inventory, prepared by the National Research Council for
  the National Commission on Water Quality, Washington, D.C., January
  1976, pp. 99-102.

                                 344

-------
u>
-p-
                NOTE:  Basins where some (or  all) stream segments  have a problem with urban
                      runoff that is not minor or insignificant,  according to state officials.
                      Affected basins are shaded. Does not reflect  basins affected by combined
                      sewer overflows.
               Source:  U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality Inventory;
                        1977  Report to Congress,  EPA 440/4-78-001,  Washington, D.C., October
                        1978.
                                                  FIGURE 6-14
                                EPA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
                                  AFFECTED BY POLLUTION FROM URBAN RUNOFF
                                                      1977

-------
Regions I, II, and III); the lowest percentage (about 25 percent) is
in the West and Northwest Regions (Federal Regions IX and X).  In the
Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V), which generated the largest
proportion—about one-fourth—of gross urban runoff in 1975, more
than half of the basins are affected.7^

     Control of urban runoff does not fall under any specific EPA ef-
fluent guidelines, but combined sewer overflows and storm sewer dis-
charges in urban areas are subject to National Pollution Discharge
Elimination System (NPDES) permits.75  Thus, once urban runoff
enters the sewer collection system, it must meet any applicable NPDES
requirements.

     Various control and corrective measures—nonstructural and
structural—can be utilized to reduce urban runoff pollution.7**
Best Management Practices focus on prevention and include measures
such as land use planning, use of natural drainage features, erosion
controls, street repair and sweeping, collection system maintenance,
control of litter, use of detention ponds, and onsite storage for
runoff.  Structural alternatives comprise conventional wastewater
treatment practices,  including primary treatment devices (swirl con-
centrators, microstrainers, dissolved air flotation, sedimentation),
secondary treatment devices (contact stabilization, physical-
chemical), and high- and low-density area reservoirs.

     Because sewered urban runoff is usually concentrated when the
first appreciable amount of rainfall occurs in a storm event (that
is, the "first flush" effect),  and is released from a finite set of
discharge points, a significant amount of pollution control can, in
theory, be achieved using structural alternatives during the "first
flush."  Nevertheless, BMP's are generally preferred to structural
alternatives (both for sewered and unsewered urban runoff) because of
lower costs, faster results, and better protection of the environ-
ment.  However, the greatest difficulty in trying to use them is that
it is almost impossible to quantify the benefits of a particular con-
trol measure.  It is  clear that onsite storage, for example,  can re-
duce downstream conduit requirements, but the water quality benefits
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  National Water Quality
  Inventory;  1977 Report to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001,  October
  1978, p. 16.
75
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of Water Program
  Operations, 1976 Needs Survey;  Cost Estimates for Construction of
  Publicly-Owned Wastewater Treatment Facilities, EPA 430/9-76-010,
  February 1977.
  Metcalf and Eddy, Inc., Urban Stormwater Management and Technol-
  ogy;  Update and User's Guide, EPA 660/8-77-014, 1977,  pp.  12-13.

                                346

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are far less defined.  For BMP's to be effective, they would need to
be used on a large scale basis.''

     The method used here to estimate gross urban pollutant runoff
was developed by James Heany and others at the University of
Florida.78  For this analysis, urban non-point source water pollu-
tion refers to wet weather pollutant discharges from combined sewers,
storm sewers, and the unsewered portions of urban areas.  Although
pollutant discharges from combined sewers and storm sewers are tech-
nically considered to be point sources (see Sections 6.1 and 6.3.1),
they are included in this discussion because municipal point source
releases (see Section 6.2) do not reflect combined sewer overflows or
storm sewer discharges.  Pollution from urban construction is not
included in the discharge estimates.

     As applied here the model accounts for regional differences in
population density, urban land use types, precipitation patterns, and
types of sewer systems, but does not accommodate changes over time.
The projections of urban runoff (1975, 1985, 1990, and 2000) are
assumed to be a function of expected land area expansion in each
urban area.  Since each urban area's population density is assumed to
remain the same, urban land area expands at the same rate as popula-
tion; consequently, the percent change in each pollutant in each
urban area is assumed to equal the percent change in population in
each urban area.

     Because projections of urban runoff are so directly related to
population growth in each urban area, a restatement of the scenario
assumptions on population growth, given in Chapter 2, is appropriate:

     o  In the High Growth Scenario, total population is
        expected to increase about 20 percent, from 213
        million in 1975 to 262 million by 2000.  In the
        Low Growth Scenario, population is assumed to
        increase more slowly, reaching 245 million by
        2000.

     o  In both scenarios, most of the total population
        increase is expected to occur between 1975 and
        1990; a lower annual population increase is
        assumed for 1990 to 2000.
''Metcalf and Eddy, Inc., Urban Stormwater Management and
  Technology:  Update and User's Guide, EPA 660/-77-014, 1977, pp.
  12-13.
'"Heany, J. et al., Nationwide Evaluation of Combined Sewer Over-
  flows and Urban Stormwater Discharges, Volume II:  Cost Assessment
  and Impacts, EPA 600/2-77-064, March 1977.

                                 347

-------
     o  The relative regional population growth rates for
        urban areas are assumed to be the same for both
        scenarios.

     It should be noted that some of the data needed to use the model
may be erroneous.    Forecasts of the model's principal explanatory
variable, population, would be affected if regional migration pat-
terns differed from those we assumed.  Land use data needed to cali-
brate the model are available for only a few cities, so it is assumed
that the distribution of land uses is the same everywhere.  No
changes in land use are forecast because of uncertainties about
future industrial relocations.  Possible long-term cyclical patterns
of rainfall could affect runoff but are not included in the precipi-
tation data, which reflect historical averages.  Urban runoff quality
data (i.e., pollutant loading rates) are available for only a few
cities and reporting is not always consistent.

     Comparison of the SEAS gross urban pollutant discharge projec-
tions with other estimates of urban pollution,^0 shows that the
SEAS projections are substantially lower, by a factor of two to five.
However, these other estimates are not necessarily precise; it was
noted earlier that the National Residuals Discharge Inventory esti-
mates may err by at least one order of magnitude.

     Although firm data on discharges from urban runoff are not
available, the SEAS discharge estimates presented below can be viewed
as reasonable indicators of trends, if not magnitudes of pollutant
releases from urban runoff.  Because we know that urban runoff is a
major factor in the degradation of the nation's surface waters, the
regional distribution and trends in these discharges from 1975 to
2000 are of greater importance than actual tonnage estimates for
understanding where urban runoff may cause additional water quality
problems in the future.
  The model's data base is periodically improved as new data become
  available.
80Luken, R.A., D.J. Basta, and E.H. Pechan, The National Residuals
  Discharge Inventory, prepared by the National Research Council for
  the National Commission on Water Quality, Washington, D.C., January
  1976, pp. 99-102.  Also, Midwest Research Institute, National
  Assessment of Water Pollution From Nonpoint Sources, Draft of Final
  Report prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
  Contract Number 68-01-2293, November 1975, p. 16.
                                348

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     Discharge Trends for Urban Runoff

     General Trends.  Estimates of gross discharges for seven major
water pollutants in urban runoff are shown in Table 6-25 for 1975,
1985, 1990, and 2000.  In the High Growth Scenario, this pollution is
expected to increase by about 20 percent from 1975 to 2000.  Most of
the increase is projected to occur between 1975 and 1990 because of
the higher annual population increase assumed for that period.  Gross
urban runoff pollutant discharge estimates increase at the same rate
for all pollutants because they are all calculated as a direct func-
tion of population growth.

     In the Low Growth Scenario, urban runoff pollution is projected
to increase by 14 percent from 1975 to 2000.  Thus, a slightly lower
rate of population growth does not produce significant differences
between scenarios in projected pollutant discharges.

     Analysis of Trends.  In 1975, the Great Lakes Region (Federal
Region V) contributed one-fourth of the gross pollution due to urban
runoff, and the New York-New Jersey and Southeast Regions (Federal
Regions II and IV) together contributed almost one-third (Figure
6-15).  In contrast, very little of the gross urban runoff—about 1
percent—was generated in the drier, less urbanized Mountain Region
(Federal Region VIII).  Regional differences result from variations
in the distribution of urban populations and urban land areas, and
differences in precipitation and in areas served by sewer systems.

     From 1975 to 2000, regional growth rates of gross urban runoff
discharges reflect projected differences in the urban population
growth rates (Figure 6-16).  These differences, however, do not alter
the regional distribution because most regional growth rates are not
projected to be much different than the national growth rate.  Fur-
thermore, because the same relative regional growth rates for urban
areas are assumed, the regional distribution of gross urban runoff is
the same for both scenarios by 2000.  In the High Growth Scenario,
gross discharges are projected to increase most rapidly in the South-
east Region (Federal Region IV) and least rapidly in the New York-New
Jersey, Great Lakes, and Central Regions (Federal Regions II, V, and
VII).

     If Best Management Practices and storage and treatment control
practices utilized during the "first flush" of a storm event could
uniformly reduce pollutant releases from urban runoff by 10 percent
across the country by 2000, three regions (Federal Regions II, V, and
VII) in the High Growth Scenario and five regions (Federal Regions I,
II, III, V, and VII) in the Low Growth Scenario would discharge less
in 2000 than in 1975.  A 25 percent reduction in pollutant discharges
by 2000 would stop the increase in releases in all but two regions

                                349

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                             TABLE 6-25
              TRENDS IN GROSS DISCHARGES OF MAJOR WATER
                    POLLUTANTS IN URBAN RUNOFF3
                         (THOUSANDS OF TONS)
                          High Growth	  	Low Growth
    Pollutant     1975   1985   1990   2000   1985   1990   2000

  Biochemical
  Oxygen Demand     370    400    420    450    390    400    420

  Chemical
  Oxygen Demand   3,400  3,400  3,900  4,200  3,600  3,800  3,900

  Suspended
  Solids          6,300  6,800  7,100  7,600  6,500  6,900  7,100

  Dissolved
  Solids          4,000  4,400  4,600  4,900  4,300  4,400  4,600

  Phosphorus          5566556

  Nitrogen           58     63     65     70     61     63     65

  Oil and
  Grease             86     94     98    110     92     95     98
aThese discharges may uniformly be too low by a factor of two to
 five; see introduction to Section 6.3.2.
                                 350

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                          IX. West
                          5 percent
               VIII. Mountain
                 1 percent
         VIII. Central
          6 percent
VI. South Central
  8 percent
  V. Great Lakes
   27 percent
X.  Northwest
 3  percent
                                            ,  New England
                                               10 percent
                   II,  New York-New Jersey
                          13 percent
                                                       III. Middle Atlantic
                                                            11 percent
                                                IV. Southeast
                                                  16 percent
                              FIGURE 6-15
          REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF GROSS DISCHARGES OF
             MAJOR WATER POLLUTANTS IN URBAN RUNOFF
                                   1975
                                   351

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UJ
ui
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t.
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3
o
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a
^ 1.2 -

2
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H 1.0 —
z
u:
cu
< 0.8 -
o 0.6 -
S 0.4-
o
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National
Growth Rate
High Growth Scenario
National
Growth Rate

D
fat


142
Low Growth Scenario L^

120

















••••••

















1 1 -3















•••PI





























High Low
REGION I
New England





109














p— i













103







































High Low
REGION II
New York-
New Jersey


117

































110










































High Low
REGION III
Middle
Atlant ic



















••••



















133



















nm
I




































High Low
REGION IV
Southeast








1 1 1































105













••••i

























High Low
REGION V
Great Lakes




136






































127


















•J-W



























134


















High Low
REGION VI
South
Central
110














^^














102




































High Low
REGION VII
Central






















































12b








































High Low
REGION VIII
Moun ta in


































121



















































High Low
REGION IX
West





130




































122



















•:.:•:














High Low
REGION X
Northwest

                                            FIGURE 6-16
                              CHANGE IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES OF
                              MAJOR WATER POLLUTANTS IN URBAN RUNOFF
                                             1975-2000

-------
 (Federal Regions IV and VI) in the Low Growth  Scenario, but only half
 the regions  (Federal Regions I, II,  III, V, and VII) in the High
 Growth  Scenario.  For pollutant releases to be lower by 2000 in all
 regions regardless of scenario, a 30 to 45 percent reduction in pol-
 lutant  discharges would have to be accomplished in certain regions
 (Federal Regions IV, VI, VIII, IX, and X).

 6.3.3   Agricultural Runoff

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.3.3

 o  Agricultural activities are the most widespread cause of non-
   point source pollution in the United States, affecting two-
   thirds of all drainage basins.

 o  In the absence of improved and more widespread use of conservation
   practices, national annual discharges of all agricultural pol-
   lutants, except miscellaneous pesticides (fumigants, desiccants,
   and  rodenticides), are projected to increase from 1975 to 2000.
   Miscellaneous pesticide releases are expected to decline, primar-
   ily due to decreased use per acre on tobacco.

 o  The distribution of agricultural pollutant discharges varies among
   regions, mainly because of differences in crop production and
   precipitation patterns.  The Southeast, Great Lakes, and Central
   Regions (Federal Regions IV, V, and VII) generate more than
   three-fourths of most pollutant releases; however, insecticide and
   miscellaneous pesticide releases are important in the South Cen-
   tral Region (Federal Region VI) and fungicide releases are great-
   est in the Northwest Region (Federal Region X).

 o  Corn and soybean production accounts for most agricultural pollut-
   ant releases; however, cotton production contributes heavily to
   insecticide releases, potato production to fungicide releases, and
   tobacco production to miscellaneous pesticide releases.

o  If Best Management Practices were widely adopted by farmers, all
   regions would be expected to discharge less sediment by 2000 than
   in 1975; reductions would be greatest, relatively, in the Mountain
   Region (Federal Region VIII).

     Introduction

     In rural areas, agriculture—including non-irrigated and irri-
gated crop production and animal production—is the main non-point
source of water pollution.  In 1975,  over 1,250 million acres of land
were devoted to agriculture, with almost 390 million acres used for
                                 353

-------
crop production.°1  By disturbing the vegetative cover and loosen-
ing the soil, farming can cause erosion and add sediments to streams.
Increasing use of fertilizers and pesticides raises the potential for
pollution of both ground and surface waters.

     The release and runoff of pollutants from farmlands is governed
mainly by local factors:  precipitation, wind, the overland flow of
water, soil characteristics, geology, vegetation, and topography.
Consequently, the runoff of pollutants from farmlands is subject to
sharp and unpredictable variations, and differs among agricultural
activities.

     The pollutants that generally result from non-irrigated crop
production are sediments, nutrients, and pesticides; organics, such
as crop residue, can also result.  Sediment, defined as fragmented
minerals or organic matter eroded from the soil, is the largest
single pollutant that affects water quality.  Deposited in water
bodies, it can ruin fish spawning areas, clog river channels, coat
lake bottoms, and release adsorbed pesticides and nutrients to the
water.

     Annual sheet and rill erosion in the contiguous United States
from cropland, pastureland, and rangeland has recently been estimated
by the Soil Conservation Service at about 3.7 billion tons, with a
little more than half attributable to cropland production.°2  n
has been further estimated that about half of all eroded soil washes
into streams and one-fourth reaches tidal waters.°^  Thus, the
estimated sediment yield from cropland to surface waters is currently
about 1 billion tons per year, which is not far removed from an esti-
mate made by the Soil Conservation Service 10 years ago. ^

     Nutrients are a particular pollution problem in intensely farmed
regions, where concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in streams
may be higher than anywhere except rivers receiving heavy municipal
Q I
 •'•Thronson, R.E. , Nonpoint Source Control Guidance:  Agricultural
  Activities, EPA 440/3-78-001, February 1978, p. 0-1.
°^U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service,
  National Resource Inventories-1977, December 1978 (unpublished
  data).
S^Holeman, J.N., "Procedures Used in the SCS to Estimate Sediment
  Yield," paper presented at the Sediment Yield Workshop, Oxford,
  Mississippi, November 1972.
 ^U.S. Department of Agriculture, Conservation Needs Inventory
  Committee, National Inventory of Soil and Water Conservation Needs,
  1967, Statistical Bulletin No. 461, January 1971.
                                 354

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waste loads.°5  Although commercial fertilizers are a major source
of nutrients, they are not the only source nor always the most impor-
tant one; this is particularly true for nitrogen releases.  Nation-
ally, commercial fertilizers have been estimated to account for only
about half of the nutrients on cropland, with biological fixation,
animal manure, plant residues, and precipitation contributing the
other half.8"  High concentrations of some discharged nutrients in
water may be toxic to human beings or animals; however, the principal
problem caused by discharged nutrients is accelerated eutrophication
of water bodies.

     Pesticides that have been applied on cropland can run off in
solution, or may be adsorbed by soil particles and carried to receiv-
ing waters where they can have significant effects.  Generally, no
more than 5 percent of applied pesticides find their way into surface
waters,8' but many pesticides are highly toxic and persistent in
fish and other aquatic species.  Pesticides can accumulate in preda-
tory species, becoming much more concentrated in their tissues than
in the water.  For many pesticides, even small discharges therefore
must be considered significant.

     Organic pollutants from crop residue and other materials carried
to surface waters can exert a high biochemical oxygen demand and may
deplete the supply of oxygen enough to kill some forms of aquatic
life.

     The types of non-point source pollutants are the same for irri-
gated as for non-irrigated crop production.  However, the addition of
irrigation water increases the potential for pollution by salinity,
sediments, and other pollutants associated with sediments.  These
problems primarily arise in the 17 western states where irrigation is
most widely used for crop production.

     Animal production—both confined^ and pastured—can produce
uater pollution problems as well.  About 2 billion tons of livestock
^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality - 1978,
  U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., December 1978,
  p. 122.
     . Environmental Protection Agency and United States Depart-
  ment of Agriculture, Control of Water Pollution From Cropland:
  Volume II:  An Overview, EPA 600/2-75-026(b),  June 1976, p. 61.
87IbidT
""Concentrated confined animal production operations are subject to
  National Pollutant Discharge Elimination Systems (NPDES) permits
  and are thus considered point sources as defined in Title 40, Parts
  124 and 125 of the Code of Federal Regulations, printed in the
  Federal Register, Volume 41, No. 54, pp. 11458-11461, March 18,
  1976.
                                 355

-------
wastes are produced annually.  As much as half of these wastes may be
produced in confined facilities.  While most of these waste materials
are collected and spread on farm acreage, runoff and seepage pose a
pollution hazard.  The principal pollutants produced are nutrients,
organic matter, and, for pastureland, sediments.  Nutrient releases
from animal production have been estimated elsewhere to be at least
as great as nutrient releases from crop production.^9

     Farming and related activities are the most widespread cause of
non-point source water pollution problems.  Almost 70 percent of the
EPA-designated hydrological drainage basins in the United States are
thought to be affected (in whole or in part) by agricultural runoff,
with a very even geographic distribution of affected basins (Figure
6-17).  The South Central, Central, and Mountain Regions (Federal
Regions VI, VII, and VIII) are affected the most—with almost 90
percent of drainage basins polluted—while the New England, New
York-New Jersey, Middle Atlantic, and Northwest Regions (Federal
Regions I, II, III, and X) are affected the least—with about 55
percent of the drainage basins polluted.

     Non-point source water pollution from agricultural activities
can be controlled most effectively at the source through the use of
Best Management Practices.  For crop production, in particular,
proper land use and agricultural management practices are the key to
protecting water quality.

     Erosion, and hence sediment loads, can be reduced by use of ter-
races, diversions, strip cropping, contouring, grassed waterways,
and/or crop rotations.  Nutrient releases can be reduced if fertili-
zer applications are properly planned and carried out.  For example,
alternating production of nitrogen-fixing crops with crops requiring
heavy fertilization can substantially reduce the long-term average
quantity of nitrogen that must be applied to soil.90

     For pesticides, as with nutrients, BMPs must include consider-
ation of timing, type, amount, and method of application.  These
control measures can be used in conjunction with "integrated pest
management," which attempts to minimize the use of chemical pesti-
cides through crop rotation, mechanical measures to remove food for
pests, biological controls (fungus-coated seeds or predator insects),
insect sterilization, use of natural toxins and insect attractants,
and development of disease-resistant crops.91
°'Thronson, R.E., Nonpoint Source Control Guidance:  Agricultural
  Activities, EPA 440/3-78-001, February 1978, p. 0-2.
9°Ibid, Chapter 3.
91lbid.
                              356

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NOTE:  Basins where some (or  all) stream segments  have a problem with agricultural
       runoff that is not minor or insignificant,  according to state officials.
       Affected basins are shaded.

Source:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  National Water Quality Inventory/
        1977 Report to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, Washington, B.C., October
        1978, p.  17.

                                FIGURE 6-17
             EPA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
           AFFECTED BY POLLUTION FROM AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES
                                    1977

-------
     The particular Best Management Practices to be used depend on
the physical, climatological, and managerial conditions under which
non-point source pollution occurs.  The effect of BMP's on agricul-
tural non-point source pollution is highly variable from crop to crop
and from locality to locality.92  Thus, it is not easy to genera-
lize about reductions in sediment and other pollutant loads to be
expected from the adoption of BMP's since the efforts of using BMP's
on pollutant loads are so site specific.

     This agricultural trends analysis is limited to discharges re-
sulting from the production of eight major crops:  corn, cotton, soy-
beans, wheat, tobacco, potatoes, citrus fruit, and apples.93  These
eight crops have accounted in the past for only about half of all
crop acreage, but about 80 percent of crop acreage receiving pesti-
cides and fertilizers.94  The discharge estimates presented here
are also a function of rainfall only and, hence also do not include
the effects of irrigation water returns or wind erosion,95 nor are
the effects of animal production included.

     Our projections of anticipated pollutant releases assume that
the proportion of cropland treated for soil conservation is constant
over the projection period and has not changed from the proportion of
the late 1960's.

     Moreover, continuation of current trends in pesticide and
fertilizer use is assumed.  In addition, although it is generally
expected that BMPs will become more widely used in coming years96
92Thronson, R.E., Nonpoint Source Control Guidance:  Agricultural
  Activities, EPA 440/3-78-001, February 1978, p. 0-2.
93()nly these crops are included in the analysis because crop pro-
  duction forecasts supplied by the economic module of SEAS are
  limited to these crops.
94see:  U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Statistics
  (various years); USDA Fertilizer Situation Report (various years);
  and USDA, Farmer's Use of Pesticides (various years).
95wind erosion is generally a minor problem in water pollution,
  compared to water erosion.  However, it contributes to air pollu-
  tion in arid and semi-arid areas.  (See:   U.S. Environmental Protec-
  tion Agency, Methods and Practices for Controlling Water Pollution
  From Agricultural Nonpoint Sources, EPA 430/9-73-015, October 1973,

QAP* 25>)
9«Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc., Environmental
  Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture - Volume I;
  Trend Identification and Evaluation, EPA 660/3-77-121, October
  1977, p. 44.
                                 358

-------
(particularly since the U.S. Department of Agriculture, under the
Rural Clean Water Program,97 will provide 50 percent funding for
agricultural practices to reduce soil erosion and improve water
quality), it is difficult to qualify the effects of such practices
(as indicated above).  For this reason, indications of how BMPs may
affect the sediment discharge trends are briefly discussed although
not projected.

     Ten pollutants, grouped as sediment, nutrients, and pesticides,
are included in the analysis.  The measures of sediment pollution are
total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, and biochemical oxy-
gen demand.  The three major plant nutrients analyzed are nitrogen,
phosphorus, and potassium.  Pesticides treated include the three
principal categories—herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides—as
well as miscellaneous pesticides (fumigants, defoliants, desiccants
and miticides).

     Forecasts of agricultural runoff are made for the years 1985,
1990, and 2000.  The method employed combines the results of SEAS
economic projections, Department of Agriculture data, surface runoff
estimates, and application rates of fertilizers and pesticides.

Specifically, the factors considered in the projections include:
crop production forecasts (projected within the economic module of
SEAS); agricultural crop yield forecasts (from USDA'°); average
annual erosion estimates per acre by crop and soil type (calculated
based upon rainfall),"' soil erodibility and topography,^^ crop
management factors, ^  and conservation practices    using the
 97Authorized by Section 208(j) of the FWPCA, as amended by section
   35 of the Clean Water Act of 1977 (PL 95-217).
 '"U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service,
   National Interregional Agricultural Projection System (the projec-
   tions used were those developed in 1976 for a study for Resources
   For the Future—USDA, ERS, Food and Agriculture, February 1977,
   Washington, D.C.).
   U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, Pro-
   cedures for Computing Sheet and Rill Erosion in Project Areas,
   Technical Release 51, Revision 2, September 1977.
    .S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, Form
   I and IW Questionnaire, unpublished survey data on erosion charac-
   teristics of various soil types, 1972.
   Midwest Research Institute, Loading Functions For Assessment of
   Water Pollution From Nonpoin't Sources, EPA 600/2-76-151, prepared
   for and published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
   Office of Research and Development, May 1976.
   U.S. Department of Agriculture, Conservation Needs Inventory
   Committee, National Inventory of Soil and Water Conservation
   Needs, 1967, Statistical Bulletin No. 461, January 1971.

                                359

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Universal Soil Loss Equation;103 sediment delivery ratios (calcu-
lated based upon the size of the drainage area;10^ and pesticide
and fertilizer application rates by crop based on projected trends
from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.^^

     Agricultural land use (i.e., acres) required to meet production
forecasts was calculated from agricultural yield forecasts.  Agricul-
tural land use forecasts were then coupled with the Universal Soil
Loss Equation to predict soil loss estimates, which were then trans-
lated into sediment loads (i.e. , soil delivered to surface waters) by
means of the sediment delivery ratios.  Sediment was expressed as
suspended and dissolved solids.   BOD releases to surface waters were
based on sediment loads.

     Pesticide and nutrient releases were calculated on the basis of
application rates, crop production forecasts, and agricultural yield
forecasts.  These data were converted into concentrations in the
erodible soil layer and coupled with predicted soil erosion to esti-
mate pesticide and nutrient transport to surface waters.  Nutrient
loads in the projections reflect the production of only four crops—
corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat—because projections of fertilizer
application rates were unavailable for the other crops in this analy-
sis.  Projections of nutrient releases do not reflect nutrients from
sources other than fertilizer, such as animal wastes, biological
fixation, precipitation and plant residuals.

     Other SEAS scenario assumptions that are important for the agri-
cultural runoff projections include the following:

     o  Crop production projected within the economic module
        of SEAS is scenario-dependent; crop production in the
        High Growth Scenario is higher than in the Low Growth
        Scenario because of the higher population and economic
        growth assumptions of the High Growth Scenario.
1 °3Wischineier, W.H. and D.C. Smith, Predicting Rainfall-Erosion
   Losses from Cropland East of the Rocky Mountains - A Guide for
   Selection of Practices for Soil and Water Conservation, Agricul-
   tural Handbook No. 282, 1965.
    .S. Environmental Protection Agency, Methods for Identifying
   and Evaluating the Nature and Extent of Nonpoint Sources of Pol-
   lutants , EPA 430/9-73-014, October 1973, pp. 57-60.
105Fox, A., unpublished data used by USDA, ERS in a study for Re-
   sources For the Future (USDA, ERS, Food and Agriculture, Washing-
   ton, D.C., February 1977).  The application rates for pesticides
   and fertilizers are assumed to be the same in all regions, but
   vary among crops.
                                360

-------
     o  The regional distribution of crop production is
        assumed to remain unchanged in both scenarios
        from 1975 to 2000.

     o  Trends in crop yields and pesticide and fertilizer
        application rates are assumed to be the same in
        both scenarios from 1975 to 2000.

     o  Soil loss per acre is scenario-independent and is
        assumed to remain constant over the 1975 to 2000
        period.

     SEAS projections cannot be directly compared with other data
sources because of differences in coverage.  SEAS includes only about
50 percent of all cropland (mostly row crops that are more suscepti-
ble to erosion than close-grown or orchard crops), while other
sources have attempted to include all cropland or all agricultural
land (that is, cropland, pasture land, and rangeland).  Compared to
the most recent Soil Conservation Service^" estimates for all
agricultural land and all cropland, the SEAS projections of gross
sediment loss are necessarily low—by factors perhaps as large as 14
and 8, respectively—since the SEAS estimates do not include all
agricultural land or even all cropland.  However, even after adjust-
ment is made for this difference in coverage, the SEAS projections of
gross sediment loss, for the crops included in these projections,
still appear to be much lower—by a factor of 4 or 5.

     The basic cause for this difference rests in the sediment
delivery ratios utilized in the SEAS analysis.  Future SEAS work will
incorporate improved estimates of soil loss per acre^7 as well as
revised sediment delivery ratios.  Therefore, at the present time,
the SEAS projections should be regarded as being too low by a factor
of 4 or 5 (if for the crops included in this analysis); 8 (if com-
pared to estimates for all cropland); or 14 (if compared to estimates
for all agricultural land).

     An additional word is in order with respect to nutrient relea-
ses.  Nutrient releases in SEAS do not consider nutrient sources
other than commercial fertilizer use on four crops (corn, cotton,
soybeans and wheat).  Thus, the nutrient projections are not reflec-
tive of the total nutrient releases from the eight crops included in
     S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service,
   National Resource Inventories - 1977, December 1978, (data not yet
   accompanied by text and published).
 107lbld.
                                  361

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this analysis.  Inclusion of nutrient releases from the use of
fertilizers on the other four crops would not change the projections
dramatically because these crops represent a small part (about 2
percent) of the combined cropland acreage for the eight crops.  How-
ever, if the nutrient projections accounted for all nutrient sources
(rather than simply commercial fertilizers), the discharge estimates
would be considerably larger, by a factor greater than the factor of
4 or 5 cited above.  Likewise, if the nutrient projections accounted
for all nutrient sources and reflected releases from all cropland or
agricultural land, the factors would again be much larger than the
factors of 8 and 14 cited above.

     While the tonnage estimates are uncertain, the projections are
meaningful for understanding where agricultural runoff may be of
greater concern in the future.  By focusing on the regional distribu-
tion and trends in pollutant discharges from 1975 to 2000, rather
than on the actual tonnage estimates, one can identify the regions
subject to possible further water quality degradation.  It is in this
light that the discharge trends should be viewed.

     Sediment Discharge Trends

     General Trends.  In the High Growth Scenario from 1975 to 2000,
annual gross discharges of sediments to surface waters (as measured
by TSS, TDS, and BOD) are estimated to increase by about 20 percent
(Figure 6-18 and Table 6-26).  Since these discharges are directly
                             TABLE 6-26
               TRENDS IN .GROSS DISCHARGES OF SEDIMENT
                       IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF3
                            1975 AND 2000
Pollutant
Total Suspended
Solids
Total Dissolved
Solids
Biochemical
Oxygen Demand
1975
(103 Tons)
94,000

40,000

630

High Growth
110,000

49,000

760
2000
(103 Tons)
Low Growth
97,000

42,000

650
aThese discharges  may uniformly be too low by a factor of four or
 five.  For assumptions included in these projections, see introduc-
 tion to Section 6.3.3
                                  362

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CO
w
o
CO
M
O

H

W
s
CO
CO
o
Pd
o
O
M
H
04
W
   125 -
   100 -
    75 -
    50 —
    25 -


                     1975
High
Low
                                          2000
NOTE:   Crops contributing less than 0.5 percent are  not shown.

       1975 National Gross Sediment Discharges = 134 million  tons

       (94 million tons of TSS and 40 million tons of TDS).
                           FIGURE 6-18

           TRENDS IN GROSS DISCHARGES OF SEDIMENT IN

                 AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP

                          1975 AND 2000
                              363

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related to soil loss per acre, which is assumed to be constant over
time, these increases would be wholly attributable to increased crop
acreage.  The greatest increases are expected for citrus fruits,
soybeans, and potatoes (Table 6-27).  A decline in total crop acreage
is expected in cotton and tobacco.  Corn and soybeans account for
three-fourths of the sediment discharges during the entire period.

     In the Low Growth Scenario, the lower growth in agricultural ac-
tivity leads to a slower growth in pollutant discharges between 1975
and 2000.  No net increase in sediment discharge is projected because
increased acreage for citrus, apples, potatoes, and soybeans is off-
set by decreased acreage committed to other crops.

     Scenario contrasts are greatest for cotton, potato^ and apple-
production and least for tobacco production, reflecting differences
between scenarios in demand for the eight crops.

     Analysis of Sediment Trends.   Since agricultural discharges of
TSS, IDS, and BOD are estimated as a fraction of total soil loss, the
projected regional distributions of these pollutants are identical to
the distribution of soil loss, and the trends between 1975 and 2000
follow the trends in soil loss.  Regional trends in crop acreage and
soil loss for the High Growth Scenario are shown in Table 6-28.

     In 1975, total crop acreage was greatest in the Great Lakes and
Central Regions (Federal Regions V and VII).  Soil loss and sediment
discharges were greatest in the Central, Southeast, and Great Lakes
Regions (Federal Regions VII, IV,  and V).

     By 2000, the Southeast, Great Lakes, and Central Regions
(Federal Regions IV, V, and VII) would still contribute about 25
percent each of sediment discharges in the High Growth Scenario.  In
these regions corn and soybeans are the primary crops, and their pro-
duction is expected to account for the bulk of regional sediment dis-
charges by 2000 (Figure 6-19)—about 85 percent in Federal Region IV,
95 percent in Federal Region V, and 90 percent in Federal Region VII.

     In the Low Growth Scenario, regional sediment discharges are
generally not expected to increase significantly from 1975 to 2000
because regional crop acreage and soil loss do not increase much.
The one exception is the Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V), where
discharges of suspended and dissolved solids are projected to in-
crease by about 20 percent.  By 2000, the pattern of regional distri-
bution is projected to be identical for both scenarios since the only
distinction between them is lower total crop production in the Low
Growth Scenario.
                                 364

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                                   TABLE 6-27
              TRENDS  IN AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY AND  SOIL LOSS
                                 1975 AND  2000
                                       High Growth
                                                           Low Growth
Scenario
Crop Production
Cotton (1C)6 3bs.)
Corn (106 bu.)
Soybeans (10 bu.)
Wheat (106 bu.)
Tobacco (106 3bs.)
Potatoes (10 cwt.)
Citrus (106 tons)
Apples (10 tons)
Acres in Crop Produc-
tion'' (millions)
Cotton
Corn
Soybeans
Wheat
Tobacco
Potatoes
Citrus
Apples
Soil Loss (106 tons)
Annual Average Soil Loss
Per Acre (tons)c
1975

5,570
6,570
1,710
2,170
2,220
340
16
3
223
12.3
76.1
59.1
71,1
1.1
1.3
1,3
0.5
3,700
17
Percent of Percent of Difference
2000 1975 Value 2000 1975 Value (Percent)

5,910
9,730
3,360
3,240
2,070
580
37
5
262
10.9
74.0
98.7
72.0
0.8
2.0
3.2
0.7
4,500
17

106
148
212
149
93
171
231
151
118
89
97
167
101
72
145
241
153
121
100

4,860
8,430
3,080
7,720
1,940
480
32
4
223
9.0
64.1
83,8
60.4
0.7
1.6
2,8
0.6
3,800
17

87
128
180
125
87
141
200
123
100
73
84
142
85
67
121
207
122
103
100

-18
-13
-15
-16
- 6
-17
-14
-18
--15
--18
-14
-•15
-16
- 6
-17
-14
-20
-15
0
 (Low Growth - High Growth) 4-  High Growth.
 In general, acreage increases are less  than crop production increases  due  to assumed
 increases  in agriculture yields from 1975  to 2000.  Rounding may create inconsistencies
 in addition.
cAssumed  to remain constant over time in both scenarios.
                                     365

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                                                      TABLE  6-28
                                           TRENDS IN REGIONAL AGRICULTURAL
                                                ACTIVITY AND SOIL LOSS
                                                 HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                                     1975 AND 2000
                                     Acres in Crop Production
Soil Loss
1975
Region
J. .
II.
III.
IV.
ON y f
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.

New England
New York-New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
8cut_heasc
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total0
Quantity
(10s Acres)
a
1
5
27
&5
31
58
26
4
7
223
Percent of
National
Total
b
1
i.
2
12
29
14
26
12
2
3
ICO
2000
Percent of
1975 Value
129
119
127
121
132
108
107
105
140
129
113
Percent of
National
Total
b
1
2
12
33
13
24
10
2
3
100
1975
Quantity
(10° Tens)
2
17
180
900
880
590
960
72
10
86
3,700
Percent of
National
-. Total
b
b
5
24
24
16
26
1
b
2
100
2000
Percent of
1975 Value
126
120
127
119
136
114
113
100
144
129
121
Percent of
National
Total
b
b
5
24
27
15
24
2
b
2
100
Annual
Average Soil
Loss Per
Acre (Tons)
13
14
36
33
14
20
18
3
3
13
17
 Less than 0.5 million acres.
 Less than 0.5 percent.
"Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition,

-------
  40 -
" 30
c.
s:
M
C
c
K,
U
  20 -
C
I—I
H
H
2
   10 -
                                              Corn

                                              Soybeans
       1975  2000  1975  2000
       REGION III
         Middle
        Atlantic
REGION IV
Southeast
          1975  2000  1975  2000  1975  2000
 REGION V
Great Lakes
REGION VI
  South
 Central
REGION VII
 Central
   NOTE:  Crops contributing less than 0.5 percent are not  shown.
         1975 National Gross Sediment Discharges = 134 million tons
         (94 million tons of TSS and 40 million tons of IDS).

                       FIGURE 6-19
TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES OF SEDIMENT
           IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP
               REGIONS III, IV, V, VI, AND VII
                HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                      1975 AND 2000
                              367

-------
     It has been estimated that extensive use of Best Management
Practices can reduce soil loss per acre and, hence, sediment dis-
charges per acre by 30 to 50 percent.108  If such measures were
widely adopted by farmers over the 1975 to 2000 period, all regions
would be expected to discharge less sediment by 2000 than in 1975.
Reductions would be greatest, in absolute terms, in the Southeast,
Great Lakes, and Central Regions (Federal Regions IV, V, and VII)
where releases are projected to be the greatest.  However, in rela-
tive terms, reductions would be greatest in the Mountain Region
(Federal Region VIII) where gross discharges are not expected in any
case to increase from 1975 to 2000 in the High Growth Scenario (and
are expected to decline 15 percent under Low Growth).

     Nutrient Discharge Trends

     General Trends.  In the High Growth Scenario, annual discharges
of nitrogen from the crops covered are projected to increase about 55
percent, potassium 80 percent, and phosphorus 90 percent from 1975 to
2000 (Figure 6-20 and Table 6-29).  This sharp increase in nutrient
discharges reflects trends in crop production and, more important,
assumed increases in fertilizer application rates.  It should be
noted that nutrients from animal production are not included in the
projections.
                             TABLE 6-29
                 TRENDS IN GROSS NUTRIENT DISCHARGES
                       IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF
                            1975 and 2000

                                               2000
                       1975         	(tons)	
Pollutant             (tons)        High Growth     Low Growth

Nitrogen              5,700            8,800           7,600
Phosphorus            3,000            5,700           4,900
Potassium             1,400            2,600           2,200

   Total3            10,000           17,000          15,000
aRounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
   u.s. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service,
   Environmental Impact Statement-Rural Clean Water Program, August
   1978, p. 59.

                                  368

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       200 -I
     w
     o
     CJ
     en
     C/2
     en
     O
     §
     H

     I
       150-
100-
     W
     Cu
        50-
            1975 High
                   2000
               NITROGEN
                   1975  High Low
                          2000
                            PHOSPHORUS
1975  High Low
       2000
                                           POTASSIUM
NOTE:  Crops contributing less than 0.5 percent are not shown.  These
      1975 National Gross Nutrient Discharges = 10,000 tons
      (5,700 tons  of phosphorous, and 1,400 tons of potassium).
                        FIGURE 6-20
      TRENDS IN GROSS DISCHARGES IN NUTRIENTS
           IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP
                       1975 AND 2000
                             369

-------
     In the Low Growth Scenario, annual nutrient discharges in 2000
are projected to be about 15 percent lower than in the High Growth
Scenario due to slower growth in crop production and crop acreage.
Nitrogen releases are projected to be about 30 percent higher than in
1975, potassium about 50 percent higher, and phosphorus about 60
percent higher.

     Corn is projected to contribute about 80 percent of nitrogen
loads in both scenarios from 1975 to 2000 because of the higher rates
of soil loss and fertilizer application for corn relative to the
other crops.  Corn contributed about 75 percent of phosphorus and
potassium discharges in 1975, but would contribute only about 60 per-
cent by 2000 in both scenarios.  Expected increases in soybean pro-
duction from 1975 to 2000 in both scenarios will mean that a larger
portion of total phosphorus and potassium releases will be attribut-
able to soybean production.

     Analysis of Nutrient Trends.  Most of the nutrient discharges in
1975 occurred in the Great Lakes and Central Regions (Federal Regions
V and VII) (Tables 6-30, 6-31, 6-32).  Nitrogen, phosphorus, and
potassium usage was predominant in these regions because corn produc-
tion was heaviest in these regions.  Elsewhere, corn and soybean pro-
duction was also generally responsible for nutrient loads in 1975.
However, in the South Central Region (Federal Region VI), where cot-
ton is an important crop, cotton contributed the most to nitrogen
loads (Figure 6-21); cotton and corn to phosphorus loads (Figure
6-22); and cotton, corn, and soybeans to potassium loads (Figure
6-23).

     Regional distributions of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium
releases are not expected to change from 1975 to 2000 because the
regional distributions of crop acreage and soil loss are expected to
remain fairly constant.  However, the relative contributions of dif-
ferent crops to nutrient loads is expected to change, with soybeans
producing a larger share of nutrient loads in most regions as a
result of increased soybean production (Figures 6-21, 6-22, 6-23).

      In the Low Growth Scenario, regional releases of nutrients are
projected to increase more slowly than in the High Growth Scenario
due to less acreage in production.  The regional distributions of
nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium discharges by 2000 are necessar-
ily the same as in the High Growth Scenario, because the projected
regional distribution of acres in crop production and soil loss by
2000 are the same in both scenarios.
                                370

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                            TABLE 6-30
                 TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES
                 OF NITROGEN IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF
                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                            1975 AND 2000
          Region

   I  New England
  II  New York-New Jersey
 III  Middle Atlantic
  IV  Southeast
   V  Great Lakes
  VI  South Central
 VII  Central
VIII  Mountain
  IX  West
   X  Northwest

     Totalc
1975


Percent
of
Quantity National
(Tons)a Total
b
32
350
840
2,200
560
1,600
74
32
120
b
1
6
15
37
10
28
1
1
2
                                                        2000
                              Percent
                    Percent     of
                    of 1975  National
                     Value    Total
5,700
100
 b
151
151
153
152
148
154
167
150
188

153
 b
  1
  6
 15
 37
  9
 28
  1
  1
  1

100
aThese discharges reflect commercial fertilizers only.  For crop-
 lands included in these projections, they may be uniformly too low
 by a factor of four or five; see introduction to Section 6.3.3.
    reported pollutants because cotton, corn, soybeans, and wheat
 are not projected for Region I.

cRounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                 371

-------
                             TABLE 6-31
                 TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES
                 OF PHOSPHORUS IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF
                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                            1975 AND 2000
                                      1975
                           2000
          Region

   I  New England
  II  New York-New Jersey
 III  Middle Atlantic
  IV  Southeast
   V  Great Lakes
  VI  South Central
 VII  Central
VIII  Mountain
  IX  West
   X  Northwest

     Totald
           Percent
             of
Quantity  National
(Tons)3    Total
    b
    16
   170
   480
 1,100
   280
   850
    36
    14
    56

 3,000
 b
  1
  6
 16
 37
  9
 28
  1
 c
  2

100
                  Percent
        Percent     of
        of 1975  National
         Value    Total
 b
158
169
207
182
197
185
189
181
214

188
 b
  1
  5
 17
 36
 10
 28
  1
 c
  2

100
aThese discharges reflect commercial fertilizers use on corn,
 cotton, soybeans and wheat only, and may uniformly be too low by a
 factor of four or five; see introduction to Section 6.3.3.

°No reported pollutants because cotton, corn, soybeans, and wheat
 are not projected for Region I.

cLess than 0.5 percent.

"Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                 372

-------
                             TABLE 6-32
                 TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES
                 OF POTASSIUM IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF
                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                            1975 AND 2000
                                      1975
                           2000
          Region

   I  New England
  II  New York-New Jersey
 III  Middle Atlantic
  IV  Southeast
   V  Great Lakes
  VI  South Central
 VII  Central
VIII  Mountain
  IX  West
   X  Northwest

     Totald
           Percent
             of
Quantity  National
(Tons)3    Total
    83
   240
   560
   120
   410
    13
     5
    13

 1,400
 b
  1
  6
 16
 38
  8
 29
  1
 c
  1

100
                  Percent
        Percent     of
        of 1975  National
         Value    Total
 b
152
155
200
170
192
174
154
158
164

177
 b
 c
  5
 19
 38
  9
 28
  1
 c
  1

100
aThese discharges reflect commercial fertilizers use on corn,
 cotton, soybeans and wheat only, and may uniformly be too low by a
 factor of four or five; see introduction to Section 6.3.3.

^No reported pollutants because cotton, corn, soybeans, and wheat
 are not projected for Region I.

cLess than 0.5 percent.

"^Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                 373

-------
   oO -
en
HH
O

3

O
O
OS
H
tfi
O
oi
o
z
c
  50 -
  40 -
  30 -
  20 -
o

H
2
W
CJ
   10 —
                                     REGION VI

                                      South

                                      Central
        REGION III

         Middle

        Atlantic
     NOTE:  Crops contributing less than 0.5 percent are not shown.
           1975 National Gross Nitrogen Discharges = 5,700 tons.


                      FIGURE 6-21

TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES OF NITROGEN

          IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP

              REGIONS III, IV, V, VI, AND VII

                HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

                     1975 AND 2000
                             374

-------
  O
  C/5
     70 -
     60 -
     50 -
  g
  5i  40
  o
  cc
  t/2
  («
  O
  &
  o
  c
u
&
Ou
     30 —
     20 -
     10 —
                Wheat

                Soybeans

                Cotton

                Corn
          1975  2000
          REGION III
            Middle
           Atlantic
                  1975 2000
                   REGION IV
                   Southeast
1975 2000
 REGION V
Great Lakes
1975  2000
REGION VI
  South
 Central
                                                   1975  2000
REGION VII
 Central
        NOTE:  Crops contributing less than 0.5 percent are not  shown.
              1975 National Gross Phosphorus Discharges = 3,000 tons.
                         FIGURE 6-22
TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES OF PHOSPHORUS
            IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP
                 REGIONS III, IV, V, VI, AND VII
                  HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                        1975 AND 2000
                              375

-------
 1
 o
 o
 o;
 o
 z
 c
CJ
«
U
OH
    70 -
    60 -
50  -
   40 -
   30 -
S;  20 -
10  -
        REGION III
          Middle
         Atlantic
                                  REGION VI
                                   South
                                   Central
      NOTE:  Crops contributing less than 0.5 percent are not shown.
            1975 National Gross Potassium Discharges = 1,400 tons.
                      FIGURE 6-23
TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES OF POTASSIUM
           IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP
               REGIONS III, IV, V, VI, AND VII
                HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                     1975 AND 2000
                           376

-------
     Pesticide Discharge Trends

     General Trends.  Gross discharges of pesticides (Figure 6-24 and
Table 6-33) are significant because of their toxicity, but are
smaller than discharges of the other pollutants.
     Discharges of fungicides are expected to increase the most from
1975 to 2000, largely because of increased use per acre for potatoes
and soybeans and higher soybean acreage.  Potatoes and soybeans are
projected to account for about 85 percent of fungicide loads by 2000.

     Miscellaneous pesticide discharges are expected to decline from
1975 to 2000, mainly because of decreased use per acre on tobacco.
Cotton and tobacco are expected to contribute more than 95 percent of
the miscellaneous pesticide loads by 2000.
                             TABLE 6-33
              TRENDS IN GROSS DISCHARGES OF PESTICIDES
                      IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF3
                            1975 AND 2000
                                                 2000
                        1975                    (tons)
Pollutant              (tons)         High Growth      Low Growth

Herbicides               230              380              320
Insecticides              88              120              100
Fungicides                 6               27               23
Miseellaneous
  Pesticides              35               27               24

    Totalb               360              550              470
aFor croplands included in these projections, these discharges may
 uniformly be too low by a factor of four or five; see introduction
 to Section 6.3.3.
"Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                 377

-------
   200-
io
w
CO
co
o
g
o
M
H
O

H

§

I
   150-
   100-
    50-
                                      MISCELLANEOUS
                                       PESTICIDES
                                                                 - 500
                                                                 - 450
                                                                 - 400
                                                                 - 350
                                                                       CO
                                                                       bJ
                                                                       O
                                                                       CO
                                                                   300  g
I
O
t-H
H

I
                                                                       o
                                                                       H
                                                                       Z
                                                                       ta
                                                                   150  g
                                                                 - 250
                                                                 - 200
                                                                 - 100
                                                                 -  50
      NOTE:
            Crops contributing less than 0.5  percent are not shown.
            1975 National Gross Pesticide Discharge =  360 tons
            (230 tons of herbicides, 88 tons of insecticides,
            6 tons of fungicides, and 35 tons of miscellaneous
            pesticides).

                             FIGURE 6-24
          TRENDS IN GROSS DISCHARGES OF PESTICIDES
                IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP
                            1975 AND 2000
                                378

-------
     About 90 percent of herbicide releases by 2000 are expected to
be related to corn and soybean production.  Cotton, corn, and soy-
beans are projected to contribute the bulk to insecticide loads
(about 90 percent by 2000).

     In the Low Growth Scenario, similar trends are anticipated.
Compared to High Growth, pollutant discharges are expected to be
about 15 percent lower for each class of pesticides due to smaller
increases (or larger decreases) in crop acreage.

     Analysis of Pesticide Trends.  Our projections of gross dis-
charges of pesticides depend mainly on two factors:  trends in pes-
ticide application rates for the various crops studied, and regional
trends in sediment losses incurred in growing each crop.

     In 1975, the Great Lakes and Central Regions (Federal Regions V
and VII) contributed most to herbicide discharges (Table 6-34), since

                              TABLE 6-34
                 TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES
                 OF HERBICIDES IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF
                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                            1975 AND 2000
1975


I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X


Region
New England
New York-New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Totald


Quantity
(Tons)3
b
1
12
44
83
23
63
2
1
2
230
Percent
of
National
Total
c
c
5
19
36
10
27
1
c
1
100
2000

Percent
of 1975
Value
371
143
139
181
154
179
158
150
172
266
163
Percent
of
National
Total
c
c
4
21
34
11
27
1
c
2
100
aFor croplands included in these projections, these discharges may
 uniformly be too low by a factor of four or five.   See introduction
 to Section 6.3.3.
^Less than 0.5 tons.
cLess than 0.5 percent.
^Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.

                                 379

-------
herbicides are used extensively on corn and soybeans and most of the
production of these crops was in these two regions.  In the other
regions as well, corn and soybeans were the major contributors to
herbicide loads in 1975 (Figure 6-25).

     By 2000, Federal Regions V and VII would still have the highest
herbicide releases in both scenarios.  Although the New England
Region (Federal Region I) would generate a very small fraction of
total herbicide releases, the herbicide load would increase faster
there than in any other region because of increases in potato acreage
between 1975 and 2000.

     In the Low Growth Scenario, herbicide discharges from 1975 to
2000 are projected to increase about 15 percent less than in the High
Growth Scenario due to smaller increases in crop production, with
the regional distribution of herbicide discharges in 2000 the same as
in the High Growth Scenario.

     The regional pattern of insecticide discharges varies over time.
In 1975, about 65 percent of the insecticide releases occurred in the
Southeast and South Central Regions (Federal Regions IV and VI), be-
cause insecticides are used heavily on cotton, and those two regions
had about 80 percent of the cotton acreage in 1975 (Table 6-35).
From 1975 to 2000, in the High Growth Scenario, insecticide use per
acre is assumed to decline for cotton and increase for soybeans; soy-
bean acreage in the Great Lakes and Central Regions (Federal Regions
V and VII) is expected to increase and cotton acreage in the South
Central Region (Federal Region VI) is expected to decline.  As a re-
sult, insecticide releases are expected to decline in Federal Region
VI and double in Federal Regions V and VII.  Consequently, both the
regional distribution of insecticide discharges and the relative con-
tribution by different crops to insecticide loads are projected to
shift by 2000 (Figure 6-26).

     In the Low Growth Scenario, the increase in insecticide dis-
charges is expected to be about 15 percent lower because of smaller
increases in crop production, with the regional distribution of
insecticide discharges the same for both scenarios throughout the
1975 to 2000 period.

     Because of the amount of potato production, the Northwest Region
(Federal Region X) accounted for about 40 percent of the total fungi-
cide discharges in 1975 (Table 6-36).  Fungicide application rates
are projected to increase for both potatoes and soybeans.  Since soy-
bean acreage is expected to increase in the Great Lakes and Central
Regions (Federal Regions V and VII), the regional distribution of
fungicide discharges would shift by 2000.  While Federal Region X
still would contribute more than one-third of the total, Federal

                                380

-------
CO
w
O

w

M
O
M
co


1

CO

O
Oi
O
O
H

§
O
   70 -
   60 -
   50 -
   40  -
   30  -
   20  -
   10  -
        REGION III

         Middle

        Atlantic
      NOTE:  Crops contributing less than 0.5 percent are not shown.

           1975 National Gross Herbicide Discharges = 230 tons.
                      FIGURE 6-25
   TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF HERBICIDES
          IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP
              REGIONS III, IV, V, VI, AND VII
                HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                     1975 AND 2000
                           381

-------
                             TABLE 6-35
                 TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES
               OF INSECTICIDES IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF
                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                            1975 AND 2000
                                      1975
                           2000
          Region

   I  New England
  II  New York-New Jersey
 HI  Middle Atlantic
  IV  Southeast
   V  Great Lakes
  VI  South Central
 VII  Central
VIII  Mountain
  IX  West
   X  Northwest

     Totald
           Percent
             of
Quantity  National
(Tons)a    Total
    b
    b
     3
    25
    12
    33
    10
    b
     2
     2

    88
 c
 c
  3
 28
 14
 37
 12
 c
  2
  2

100
                  Percent
        Percent     of
        of 1975  National
         Value    Total
138
139
141
124
209
 97
196
134
 90
142

134
 c
 c
  3
 26
 21
 27
 18
 c
  2
  2

100
aFor croplands included in these projections, these discharges may
 uniformly be too low by a factor of four or five; see introduction
 to Section 6.3.3.

"Less than 0.5 ton.

GLess than 0.5 percent.

^Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                 382

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     to
     w
     o
     o
     C/j
     M

     O



     e
     M

     0
     M

     H
     en
     I/}
     o
     &
     o
     I
     o

     H
     2
     w
     0
     Ctf
     u
        40 —
        30 —
        20
10  -
                                 REGION VI

                                  South

                                 Central
       NOTE:  Crops contributing less than 0.5 percent are not  shown.

            1975 National Gross Insecticide Discharges = 88 tons.
                        FIGURE 6-26

TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES OF INSECTICIDES

            IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP

                 REGIONS IV, V, VI, AND VII

                 HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO

                      1975 AND 2000
                           383

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                              TABLE 6-36
                 TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES
                 OF FUNGICIDES IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF
                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                            1975 AND 2000
                                      1975
                           2000
          Region

   I  New England
  II  New York-New Jersey
 III  Middle Atlantic
  IV  Southeast
   V  Great Lakes
  VI  South Central
 VII  Central
VIII  Mountain
  IX  West
   X  Northwest

          Totalb
           Percent
             of
Quantity  National
(Pounds)a  Total
   400
   400
 1,600
 2,200
 1,000
   400
   200
   200
   400
 4,600
12,000
100
                  Percent
        Percent     of
        of 1975  National
         Value    Total
  3
  2
  7
 17
 16
  6
 10
  1
  2
 37

100
3
3
14
20
8
3
2
2
4
40
380
274
224
403
'894
896
2,010
403
251
425
469
aFor croplands included in these projections, these discharges may
 uniformly be too low by a factor of four or five; see introduction
 to Section 6.3.3.

"Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                  384

-------
Regions V and VII would contribute about one-fourth of the fungicide
loads by 2000 largely because of soybean production (Figure 6-27).
Fungicide discharges are expected to grow most rapidly in Region VII
in the High Growth Scenario, due to an expected increase of 60 per-
cent in soybean acreage from 1975 to 2000.

     In the Low Growth Scenario, fungicide discharges by 2000 are
expected to be about 85 percent of their High Growth values due to
smaller projected increases in crop production, with the regional
distribution of discharges by 2000 the same as in the High Growth
Scenario.

     In general, regional discharges of miscellaneous pesticides are
expected to decline from 1975 to 2000 due to assumed reductions in
application rates (Table 6-37).  In 1975, approximately two-thirds of
                             TABLE 6-37
               TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES OF
           MISCELLANEOUS PESTICIDES IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF
                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                            1975 AND 2000
                                      1975
          Region

   I  New England
  II  New York-New Jersey
 III  Middle Atlantic
  IV  Southeast
   V  Great Lakes
  VI  South Central
 VII  Central
VIII  Mountain
  IX  West
   X  Northwest

     Total0
           Percent
             of
Quantity  National
(Pounds)3  Total
    80
    30
 4,600
47,000
 2,100
13,000
 2,000
    10
   800
    70

70,000
 b
 b
  7
 68
  3
 18
  3
 b
  1
 b

100
2000

Percent
Percent
of
of 1975 National
Value
78
114
69
72
37
103
53
57
110
150
Total
b
b
6
64
1
24
2
b
2
b
77
100
aFor croplands included in these projections, these discharges may
 uniformly be too low by a factor of four or five; see introduction
 to Section 6.3.3.
^Less than 0.5 percent.
cRounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                               385

-------
    80  -
    70 ->
3 60
o
I
CO
M
0 50
w
o
    40  -
 CO
 CO
 o
  30 -
 o
 M
 H
    20 -
H


S 10
               Citrus

               Apples

               Wheat

               Tobacco
         1975  2000
         REGION III
          Middle
         Atlantic
                         *.V
                         .V
                   1975  2000
                  REGION IV
                  Southeast
                   Potatoes

                   Corn

                   Soybeans

                   Cotton
                             1975  2000
 REGION V
Great Lakes
                                        1975  2000
REGION VI
  South
 Central
                                                  1975  2000
REGION VII
 Central
                                                            1975  2000
REGION X
Northwest
                                                                      - 175
                                                                        150  co
                                                                            Id
                                                                            O
                                                                      - 125
                                                                      — 100
                                                                      -  75
                                                                      -  50
                                                                      -  25
NOTE:  Crops contributing less than 0.5 percent are not shown.  1975 national Gross
      Fungicide Discharges = 6 tons.
                               FIGURE 6-27
       TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES OF FUNGICIDES
                  IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP
                      REGIONS III, IV, V, VI, VII, AND X
                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                              1975 AND 2000
                                                                            cj
                                                                            a
                                                                            a
                                                                           CO
                                                                           CO
                                                                           o
                                                                            2
                                                                            O
                                                                            O
                                                                            H
                                                                            Z
                                                                            w
                                    386

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the miscellaneous pesticide discharges occurred in the Southeast
Region (Federal Region IV), because of heavy tobacco production
(Figure 6-28).  Miscellaneous pesticide use per acre is projected to
decline for all crops except cotton and apples, which are assumed to
remain constant.  Since about 60 percent of the total cotton acreage
is expected to be located in the South Central Region (Federal Region
VI) from 1975 to 2000, the proportion of national total miscellaneous
pesticide discharges in Federal Region VI is projected to increase
somewhat by 2000.  The proportion of discharges contributed by other
regions would not change significantly.

     In the Low Growth Scenario, miscellaneous pesticide discharges
would be 15 percent less than in the High Growth Scenario by 2000,
with the regional distribution of discharges by 2000 the same as in
the High Growth Scenario.

6.3.4  Other Non-point Sources

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 6.3.4

o  Both mining and construction activities have localized water pol-
   lution impacts.  These activities and their impacts are expected
   to increase from 1975 to 2000.

o  Silvicultural activities have caused localized pollution but are
   not expected to have significant long-term impacts, especially
   when compared to other non-point sources.

     Mining

     Many studies have documented the water pollution aspects of min-
ing and mine drainage.^"  Mine drainage includes water flowing
from surface or underground mines by gravity or pumping, and runoff
or seepage from mine lands or mine wastes.  This drainage, carrying
dissolved, suspended, or other mineral wastes and debris enters re-
ceiving streams or the groundwater system.  This pollution may be
physical (sediments) or chemical (acid) and much of it is harmful to
aquatic or other life.  Moreover, mine drainage may persist long
after completion of mining, unless control measures are taken. *-lv
      . Environmental Protection Agency, Methods for Identifying
   and Evaluation of the Nature and Extent of Nonpoint Source of Pol-
   lutants, EPA 430/9-73-014, October 1973, Chapter 5.0.
   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Processes, Procedures and
   Methods to Control Pollution from Mining Activities, EPA 430/9-73-
   011, October 1973, p. 1.
                                  387

-------
               70 -
            w
            o
            S  60
            c
            I—I
            u
            M
            H
            O
            u
            a
            en
            en
            O
            pi
            O
            O
            a

            H
            w
            n.
               50  -
               40  -
               30  -
               20  -
               10  -
1


••
1975 2000 19
REGION III R
Middle S
Atlantic
isl ITT1
I
^

Tm

j]|| Tobacco
H| Soybeans
Cotton
•P*

75 2000
EG ION IV
autheast





1975 2000
REGION VI
South
Central
  NOTE:  Crops contributing less than 0.5 percent are not shown.

        1975 National Gross Miscellaneous Pesticide Discharges = 35 tons.
                        FIGURE 6-28

TRENDS IN REGIONAL GROSS DISCHARGES OF MISCELLANEOUS

       PESTICIDES IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF, BY CROP

                   REGIONS III, IV, AND VI

                       1975 AND 2000
                            388

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     Over the past 150 years, mining activity has constantly in-
creased in magnitude.  Pollution problems reflect the range of sub-
stances mined—organic materials (coal, lignite, peat), gems, metal
ores, and other metallic and nonmetallic minerals (talc, gypsum,
limestone, dolomite, sandstone, sand, nitrate, phosphate, and
others).  The Bureau of Mines has estimated that, from 1930 through
1977, about 5 million acres of land have been mined, with about 2.3
million acres being for coal production.  About 40 percent of all
land utilized for mining has been reclaimed to some degree, with 1.5
million acres representing land reclaimed from coal production.m

     Surface mining in its several forms—strip, open pit, dredging,
and hydraulic—creates more visible defacement of the earth's surface
than does underground mining.  In strip mining, a large amount of
overlying material is removed to expose an underlying deposit for
extraction.  Open pit mining, a common method for mining stone and
copper, is similar to strip mining, except that little waste over-
burden is generated, since most of the material removed is valuable
ore.  Dredging is used to recover minerals from underwater; the min-
ing of gravel accounts for most dredging production, but dredging has
also been widely used in gold mining.  Hydraulic mining is performed
by directing a jet of high-velocity water at an unconsolidated
deposit and is used almost exclusively for gold recovery.

     Mining activity can be either a point source or a non-point
source of water pollution and the classification is sometimes diffi-
cult.  Control of water pollutants from certain parts of the mining
site—notably disturbed land areas and refuse piles—is currently
under state jurisdiction, and varies from state to state.  Point
source pollutant discharges are specifically controlled by National
Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permits.

     A mine-related non-point source can be defined as a contributing
source resulting from mineral industry activity that causes surface
water and/or groundwater pollution beyond those discharges controlled
by NPDES permits.  They include all pollutants from active, inactive,
and abandoned surface and underground mine sites, as well as pollu-
tants generated by mine spoils, mine haul roads, mineral exploration
operations, mineral transport systems, mineral processing, storage,
waste disposal, and other sources.
   Personal communication, P. Marcus and J. Peone, Division of
   Environment, Bureau of Mines, June 1979.
 1?
  ^•       D. , Water Quality Management Guidance for Mine Related
   Pollution Sources, EPA Technical Guidance Memorandum, Tech 42,
   December 1977, pp. 1-2, 1-3.
                                 389

-------
     The major piece of Federal legislation designed to control non-
point discharges from mining activity is the Surface Mining Control
and Reclamation Act of 1977 (PL 95-87).  This act pertains to coal
mining in particular and calls for a regulatory program to be promul-
gated in two stages.  Interim final regulations were issued by the
Department of Interior in accordance with Section 501(a) of the
Act.H3  Section 501(b) required that permanent final regulations
be published by August 3, 1978.  These permanent regulations were
delayed and were promulgated in final form on October 25, 1978 for
the abandoned mine land reclamation program^l^ and on March 13,
1979 for the permanent regulatory program.H5  Mine operators oper-
ate under existing interim final regulations until state programs
have been approved or until a Federal program has been installed in
accordance with the permanent regulations.  The deadline for full
compliance with the permanent regulations is February 3, 1981.

     The interim final regulations established procedures (Best Man-
agement Practices) for nine of the 25 environmental protection per-
formance standards specified in the Act, which cover all aspects of
mining and reclamation.  The permanent regulations cover all 25
areas.

     All lands disturbed after the Surface Mining Control and Recla-
mation Act was passed must be reclaimed in accordance with regula-
tions under the Act.  Coal operators have four years in the East and
nine years in the West to restore newly-disturbed land to an accept-
able condition.  In addition, the Act provides a program for restor-
ing abandoned mine lands.  In the future, mining discharges will be
considered as point sources and regulated accordingly.

     The most serious pollutant arising from mining is the acid mine
drainage generated by oxidation of pyritic materials in water.  This
drainage is a mixture of iron salts, other salts, and sulfuric acid,
and arises from both underground and surface mining sources, from
coal and many metal mining operations.  The acid can react with clay
minerals to produce aluminum concentrations sufficient to kill fish,
and with limestone to produce hard water.  The acid can also extract
heavy metals, present in trace quantities in mineral and soil
formations, which can result in toxic conditions.

     Acid mine drainage is generally associated with coal mining in
Appalachia, although it is not found at all coal mines.  It is also a
problem in some hard rock (copper, silver, gold, etc.) mining areas
113Federal Register, Volume 42, p. 62639, December 13, 1977.
1lAFederal Register, Volume 43, p. 49932, October 25, 1978.
115Federal Register, Volume 44, p. 14902, March 13, 1979.
                                 390

-------
in the western United States.  The volume and composition of the mine
drainage depends greatly upon local conditions; its environmental
significance is equally specific to each situation.

     Mine drainage in Appalachia—in the Middle Atlantic and South-
east Regions (Federal Regions III and IV)—is best understood.  The
Appalachian Regional Commission estimated that 2.3 million tons of
acids were discharged during 1966 from active and inactive surface
mines and spoil piles in Appalachia.11"  A more recent (1975) esti-
mate by Midwest Research Institute11^ indicated that about 2.9 mil-
lion tons of acids are discharged elsewhere in the country, primarily
from metal mining in the Mountain and West Regions (Federal Regions
VIII and IX) and, in much smaller amounts, from coal mining in the
South Central and Central Regions (Federal Regions VI and VII).

     Whatever the exact size of the problem and how it may change in
the future is uncertain.  The effectiveness and lifetime of present
methods of mine sealing vary according to method and environ-
mental conditions.  Further, the major source of acid mine drainage
is from abandoned underground mines in Appalachia.  Cost-effective
methods for controlling such abandoned acid drainage sources have not
yet been developed.  Current methods of underground mining are essen-
tially the same as in the past and consequently will produce the same
sources of largely uncontrollable acid mine drainage.  It has been
estimated that only 25 percent of the acid mine drainage cases from
now to the year 2000 will be controllable by using current technolo-
gies.118

     Surface mining operations disturb large areas of land and leave
them susceptible to erosion.  This can contribute large quantities of
sediment to surface waters if the land is not properly reclaimed
after mining or if proper techniques for sediment control are not
used.  Sediment problems already arise from the many acres of land
disturbed by past mining activity and not yet reclaimed.

     Processing raw minerals to concentrate the ore creates vast
piles of tailings, which can also produce sediment problems.  This is
11"Appalachian Regional Commission, Acid Mine Drainage in Appa-
   lachia, 1969.
^'Midwest Research Institute, National Assessment of Water Pollu-
   tion from Nonpoint Sources, Draft of Final Report, prepared for
   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract Number 6801-2293,
   November 1975, p. 27.
118personai communication, Ronald Hill, U.S. Environmental Protec-
   tion Agency, Resource Extraction and Handling Division, Industrial
   Environmental Research Laboratory, Cincinnati, Ohio, January 1979.

                                 391

-------
especially prevalent in the western United States, where tailings
from hard rock minerals processing have been spread over large areas.

     The nature and extent of the sediment problem depends on the
location of the mining operation, the type of mining, and the degree
of reclamation.  In mountainous coal-mining areas, reclamation and
sediment control problems are especially difficult.  Contour mining
of coal is the largest single source of sediment from mining opera-
tions.  Contour mining involves dumping the overburden or spoil on
the downslope side of the cut in order to expose the coal seam, and
leaves a "highwall", the steep cliff remaining above the cut after
coal has been removed.  Such a site is highly susceptible to erosion.
The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act will require restora-
tion of all new mines to the original land contours.

     Estimates of soil loss per acre from active surface mining oper-
ations are 10 times that from cropland and equal to that from con-
struction. H9  Estimates of the sediment loss from mining have
ranged from 20 million tons-^O to 60 million tonsil per year, but
little information is available on which to base estimates.  A few
studies of sediment loadings in major river basins have been con-
ducted, but these are an exception.*•*•*•

     Mining can create a significant problem in areas where ground
water is a source of water supply.  For example, blasting can frac-
ture local rock strata, providing entries for mine drainage or saline
water to aquifers.  Generally, groundwater pollution from mining
operations can be controlled by sealing the bottoms of polluted water
containments.
110
   See Table 6-23.
120
   Brant, Gerald H. et al.   An Economic Analysis of Erosion and Sediment
   Control Methods for Watersheds Undergoing Urbanization.  PB-209 212.
   Midland, Michigan:   Dow Chemical Company, February 1972.

   Midwest Research Institute, National Assessment of Water Pollution
   from Nonpoint Sources, Draft of Final Report, prepared for U.S.
   Environmental Protection Agency, Contract Number 68-01-2293, November
   1975, p. 16.
 l^Experts from EPA's  Office  of  Water  Planning  and Standards,  Non-
   point Source Branch;  EPA's  Office of  Research  and Development,
   Agricultural and Nonpoint  Management  Division;  Department  of
   Interior's  Bureau of  Mines, Office  of Surface  Mining  Reclamation
   and  Enforcement; Department of  Agriculture's Soil Conservation
   Service, Land Use Data  and  Erosion  Sedimentation Division;  and the
   Appalachian Regional  Commission, are  not aware of any other reports
   containing  national estimates of sediment loss due  to coal mining
   or other mining activities.


                                 392

-------
     Leachate, the discharge of polluted water arising from water
percolation in waste rock piles, is another source of pollution in
coal mining regions where coal refuse and mine spoil are exposed to
weathering, and in the western United States, where tailings piles
and mining operations subject to leaching are located on fractured
rock.  Control of leachate pollution from tailings piles is often
hampered by mining company effort to save the tailings for future
mineral extraction.  Some tailings piles have existed 50 years or
more without adequate maintenance; piles have been eroded by water
and wind, and seals between ponds and bedrock have deteriorated.

     Radioactivity arising from mining activities is of especial con-
cern in the western United States, where uranium ore mining and pro-
cessing may release uranium and radium from mill tailings.

     Finally, during the mining reclamation process nutrient and pes-
ticide pollution can become a problem if techniques and timing of
applications are improper.

     Currently, about 30 percent of the EPA-designated hydrological
drainage basins in the United States are affected by runoff or drain-
age from active or abandoned mines (Figure 6-29).  In most areas, the
most severe control problems are due to abandoned mines and unre-
claimed land from past mining activities, since generally mining
today is better regulated and more mine land is reclaimed.

     The extent and type of pollution problems vary considerably with
geographic region.  In the Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V),
about 40 percent of the basins are affected by mining activities
(largely coal mining), and sediment is a particular problem.  More-
over, acidity from non-point sources affects almost 40 percent of the
basins, which is more than double the percentage for the rest of the
country.  In the South Central, Central, Mountain, and West Regions
(Federal Regions VI, VII, VIII, and IX)—which have considerable ore
mining activity—about 40 to 50 percent of the water basins are
affected.  Heavy metals are the principal problem.  In contrast, in
the Southeast Region (Federal Region IV) only 15 percent of basins
are affected by mining activities. ^3

     From 1975 to 2000, mining activity is expected to show a sizable
increase (Table 6-38).  Despite regulation of some current and future
mining operations, the increased activity will still cause adverse
    .S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality/
   1977 Report to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, October 1978, pp. 18,
   22.
                                393

-------
NOTE:   Basins where some (or all) stream segments  have a problem with pollution
       from mining activities  that is not minor or insignificant, according  to
       state officials.   Affected basins are shaded.
Source:  U.S.  Environmental Protection  Agency, National Water Quality Inventory/
         1977  Report to Congress,  EPA 440/4-78-001, Washington,  D.C., October
         1978,  p.  21.

                                  FIGURE 6-29
               EPA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
                AFFECTED BY POLLUTION FROM MINING ACTIVITIES
                                     1977

-------
                               TABLE 6-38
             TRENDS  IN  THE  OUTPUT  OF THE MINING INDUSTRY
                             1975 AND 2000
                       (MILLIONS  OF 1971  DOLLARS)
Iron Ores
Copper Ores
Coal
Other Non-Ferrous
Ores (Uranium)
Stone and Clay
Chemicals and
Fertilizers
(sulfur and
phosphate)
1975
1,700
1,330
5,380
920
2,780
850
High
2000
2,890
2,840
15,200
2,660
7,470
2,220
Growth
Percent of
1975 Value
170
214
283
289
269
261
Low
2000
2,700
2,470
10,900
2,330
7,170
1,920
Growth
Percent of
1975 Value
159
186
203
253
258
226
Scenario
o
Difference
(Percent)
- 7
-13
-28
-16
- 4
-13
(Low Growth - High Growth) -f High Growth.
                                       395

-------
impacts on water quality, at least in the short term while active min-
ing is occurring and before reclamation is complete.  Thus, concern
for water quality as a result of mining activity will be an important
issue during the 1975 to 2000 period and beyond.

     Silviculture124

     About 500 million acres of land in the United States are classi-
fied as commercial timberland.  Depending upon natural characteris-
tics and management, these lands can be minor or major sources of
surface water pollution.

     An established, well-managed forest can be remarkably resistant
to emitting pollutants.  Tree cover deprives rainfall of most of its
erosive force; intense rainfall can often be accommodated without run-
off and erosion.

     Natural events—windstorms, droughts, fires, disease, insects—
can devastate a forest and promote heavy erosion and stream pollu-
tion.  Silvicultural activities, which are generally concerned with
growing and harvesting timber, preventing natural devastation, and
restoring productivity, can also result in pollution.  These activi-
ties include logging, timber stand improvement, the building and use
of logging roads, prescribed and slash burnings, and fertilization
and pesticide application.

    Logging road construction, maintenance, and use and mechanized
forest operations probably have the most significant environmental
impacts.  Increased erosion accompanies logging road construction,
and, especially with poor design, stream sediment loads can greatly
increase.  Mechanized operations can compact the soil and decrease
soil productivity, destroy wildlife habitat, and leave the soil ex-
posed to erosion.  Recovery from soil compaction can take 3 to 10
years.

    Pesticides and fertilizers are applied to forest lands only in
rather special circumstances.  In 1972, only 0.002 percent of commer-
cial forest lands received insecticide applications.  Only about
        of the description of this section is based on:  U.S.
   Environmental Protection Agency, Methods for Identifying and Eval-
   uating the Nature and Extent of Nonpoint Sources of Pollutants,
   EPA 430/9-73-014, October 1973, Chapter 4.; and Development Plan-
   ning and Research Associates, Inc., Environmental Implications of
   Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture - Volume I;  Trend Identi-
   fication and Evaluation, EPA 600/3-77-121, October 1977,
   Chapter X.
                                 396

-------
500,000 acres receive fertilizer applications in one year.  Conse-
quently, nutrient discharges from fertilizing forests are minor
compared to those from agricultural activities.

     The most important pollutant originating from silvicultural
activities is sediment.  On a per acre basis, sediment loss from
recently logged forestland is estimated to be about 2.5 times that
from cropland. 125  0n a total mass basis, estimates of sediment
loss per year from silvicultural activities range from 140 million
tons126 to 263 million tons,127 far less than that from all
croplands.

     Vegetative and animal organic matter transported to surface
waters by runoff ranges from green vegetative refuse through well-
decomposed humic matter.  It is sometimes a nuisance (floating
debris); sometimes physically damages aquatic habitat (bark deposited
in spawning beds); and nearly always exerts a biochemical oxygen
demand.  BOD discharges from silvicultural activities have been esti-
mated at about 8 million tons per
    Insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, and rodenticides used to
protect forests may be deposited directly in surface water sources by
careless application, or be transported in surface runoff.  Pesti-
cides differ from other forest pollutants in that they are, by de-
sign, toxic to some part of the forest ecosystem.  Their pollution
potential depends on their persistence, rates, and modes of degrada-
tion, mechanisms by which they may be transported to nontarget
species, and their toxicity to nontarget species.  The continuing
controversy over the effects on human beings as well as wildlife of
the past use of the herbicide 2,4,5-T on forests is one example of
the unforeseen problems that can arise from the widespread use of
pesticides.

     Fertilizers and fire retardants also may pollute streams and
lakes by releasing nutrient compounds, mainly nitrogen and phosphor-
us.  Nitrogen, phosphorus, and other mineral nutrients can also be
125See Table 6-25.
I2"Dow Chemical Company, An Economic Analysis of Erosion and Sedi-
   ment Control Methods for Watersheds Undergoing Urbanization,
   February 1972, p. 15.
  'Midwest Research Institute, National Assessment of Water Pollu-
   tion From Nonpoint Sources, Draft of Final Report, prepared for
   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract Number 68-01-2293,
   November 1974, p. 16.
                                  397

-------
added to streams where the cutting or burning of forests interrupts
the natural nutrient cycling of the forest ecosystem.  Nitrogen,
water soluble in both the ammonia and nitrate forms, is much more
susceptible to transport in runoff and infiltrating water than is
phosphorus.  Ammonia is toxic to fish at the part-per-million con-
centration range, and the nitrate ion is toxic under certain con-
ditions.  Phosphorus is noted chiefly because it accelerates
eutrophication processes.  Both nitrogen and phosphorus are highly
essential elements, present naturally in abundance; they become pol-
lutants when their presence adversely affects the aquatic ecosystems.
Silvicultural activities have been estimated to release 400,000 tons
of nitrogen and 100,000 tons of phosphorus per year to surface
waters.129

     Bacterial pollution of surface waters from forestlands can orig-
inate from soils, plant, and tree debris, and most importantly, from
animal and human wastes.  Pathogenic agents from these sources may
infect animals or, in some cases, human beings.

     Finally, thermal pollution from solar radiation can result from
silvicultural activities.  Removal of tree cover may result in a sub-
stantial increase in stream water temperatures, with detrimental
impact on fish and fish spawning.

     About 15 percent of all EPA-designated hydrological drainage
basins in the United States are affected by silvicultural activities
(Figure 6-30).13°  The West and Northwest Regions (Federal Regions
IX and X) have the largest proportion of affected basins—almost 30
percent.

     Preliminary data-*-3! indicate that 204 million acres of un-
grazed forestland and 42 million acres of grazed forestland, private-
ly owned, need some type of conservation treatment—two-thirds of all
non-federal forestland.  Some of the identified needs are:  1 million
acres of planting and seeding; 11,000 miles of road stabilization;
and 5.4 million acres of stand improvement.*32  These needs bear
1^Midwest Research Institute, National Assessment of Water
   Pollution From Nonpoint Sources, Draft of Final Report, prepared
   for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract Number
   68-01-2293, November 1974, p. 16.
    .S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
   Inventory/1977 Report to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, October 1978,
   p. 16.
   U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service,
   National Resource Inventories - 1977, December 1978 (unpublished
   data).
    .S. Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, Envi-
   ronmental Impact Statement - Rural Clean Water Program, August
   1978, p.26.
                                 398

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NOTE:   Basins where some  (or all) stream segments have a problem with pollution
       from silvicultural activities that is  not minor or insignificant, according
       to state officials.  Affected basins are shaded.
Source:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality Inventory/
         1977 Report to Congress,  EPA 440/4-78-001,  Washington,  D.C., October
         1978, p. 20.
                                  FIGURE 6-30
               EPA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
            AFFECTED BY POLLUTION FROM SILVICULTURAL ACTIVITIES
                                      1977

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directly or indirectly on the water pollution yield of U.S. forest-
lands.

     It has been estimated that, from 1975 to 2000, demand for round-
wood and sawtimber products will increase; however, it is also esti-
mated that forestland will decrease 5 percent by 2010.  Despite this
reduction, increased demands can be met if proper forest management
practices are used to increase productivity.  It has also been pro-
jected that Best Management Practices will be applied more exten-
sively in the future, most notably in the form of improved road
construction and road maintenance in the Pacific Coast and Rocky
Mountain areas and improved site preparation in the Southeast. "^
Although pesticide and fertilizer use is expected to be a little more
extensive by 2010, no greater effect on this environment is antici-
pated.  In sum, the water pollution effects of silvicultural activi-
ties are not expected to increase significantly in the foreseeable
future, and may actually decline as more forestland comes under
professional management.

     Construction^^

     The highly diversified activities of the construction industry,
ranging from small-scale residential construction to heavy earth
moving jobs such as highway, dam, and power plant construction, make
this industry a substantial source of non-point pollution in particu-
lar locations.  The runoff of pollutants from construction sites
depends on precipitation, wind, soils, topography, and erosion con-
trol measures at each site.  The nature and quantity of pollutants
leaving a site also depend upon the particular activities being con-
ducted, the construction practices utilized, the extent of disturbed
area, the number of people and equipment involved and their impacts
on the area, the extent of protective vegetation covering the site,
and other similar factors. l->5

     The acreage of land disturbed on construction sites is small
compared to other non-point sources, such as agricultural lands, but
133j)eveiOpmen£ planning and Research Associates, Inc., Environ-
   mental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture-
   Volume I:  Trend Identification and Evaluation, EPA 600/3-77-121,
   October 1977, pp. 157-161.
        of the description in this section is based on:  U.S. Envi-
   ronmental Protection Agency, Methods for Identifying and Evaluat-
   ing the Nature and Extent of Nonpoint Sources of Pollutants, EPA
   430/9-73-014, October 1973, Chapter 6.
^•3->Thronson, R.E. , Nonpoint Source Control Guidance - Construction,
   EPA Technical Memorandum TECH 27, December 1976, p. 1-1.
                                  400

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the rate of soil erosion can be 10 times that from agriculture. ^"
Moreover, since construction projects usually last from 6 to 18
months, unprotected sites can have a significant effect on local
water resources.

     Activities typical of construction projects include clearing,
grubbing (e.g., removal of tree stumps), pest control, rough grading,
facility construction, and restoration of the construction site.  Pol-
lutants resulting from such activities can be broadly grouped as sed-
iment, chemical pollutants, and biological pollutants.

     Sediment is the main pollutant associated with construction.  A
major factor responsible for the loss of soil from some construction
sites is the clearing of large areas of land at one time, rather than
in stages.  Often the lack of a well-planned grading schedule results
in the exposure of large surfaces during heavy rain seasons when run-
off is greatest.  An estimated 200 million tons of sediments per year
are deposited by surface runoff from urban residential, urban non-
residential, and highway and road construction, with 95 percent being
generated by the last source.

     The major categories of chemical pollutants from construction
operations and materials are petroleum products, pesticides, fertili-
zers, metals, soil additives, construction chemicals, and miscellane-
ous wastes (construction debris).

     Petroleum products are the largest group of pollutant-producing
materials consumed in construction activities.  A majority of these
materials—oils, grease, fuels, certain solvents—float on the sur-
face of water and spread easily over a wide area.  Oils and other
petroleum products are readily absorbed by sediment,  which is the
main carrier of these materials.   Sediment contaminated with oil is
carried in runoff to receiving streams.  The inherent properties of
petroleum products make them extremely difficult to control after
they enter water bodies.  Some impart a persistent odor and taste to
water; others can block the transfer of oxygen from the atmosphere
into water, resulting in the suffocation of fish and other aquatic
organisms.   Some contain organometallic compounds and other impuri-
ties that can be toxic to fish and other organisms.
136See Table 6-24.
1 oy
1-"Midwest Research Institute, National Assessment of Water Pollu-
   tion From Nonpoint Sources, Draft of Final Report, prepared for
   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Contract Number 68-01-2293,
   November 1975, pp. 16, 24, 25.
                                 401

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     The three most commonly used pesticides at construction sites
are herbicides, insecticides, and rodenticides.  Herbicides are used
for removing weeds around the construction area, but their use is
minor, since most plants are removed by bulldozers during land clear-
ing and grubbing.  The particular pesticide used may depend on the
region, climate, and target species.  Pesticides enter receiving
waters in runoff from construction sites, or because improper methods
of application result in direct contamination of water.

     One of the best ways to reduce soil erosion from construction
sites is to establish vegetation on exposed soils as soon as possi-
ble.  Fertilizers are normally used: to promote vegetative growth, and
thus to prevent erosion, but heavy use can add nitrogen and phosphor-
us to nearby streams.

     Metallic wastes from construction weather to oxides and salts
that can be toxic to aquatic organisms.  The concern over metal pollu-
tion of water bodies is associated mostly with the heavy metals (mer-
cury, lead, zinc, silver, cadmium, arsenic, copper, aluminum, iron,
etc.); about 5 million tons of heavy metals per year are estimated to
be deposited in surface waters by all nonpoint sources.^°

     The environmental effects of soil additives—chemicals and other
materials applied to the soil during construction to obtain desired
soil characteristics—are not known.  These additives are used to
control the amount of moisture absorbed by roadway surfaces, to
reduce shrinking and expanding of clay soils, and to increase the
firmness of soils.  Common additives include lime, fly ash, asphalt,
phosphoric acid, salt, and calcium chloride.  If the materials are
carried in runoff from construction sites, they could alter the qual-
ity of receiving waters.  However, extensive work has not been con-
ducted to determine environmental effects.

     Construction chemicals include those used for gluing, sealing
cracks, treating surfaces, dyeing and cleaning, and thinning oils and
paints.  The amounts of chemicals leaving construction sites as pol-
lutants have not been established and their total effects on water
quality are unknown.

     Finally, biological pollutants resulting from construction
activity include soil organisms and organisms of human and animal
origin, such as bacteria, fungi, and viruses.  Most biological pol-
lutants are found in the topsoil layer.  Sediments and runoff are the
 *-^Midwest Research Institute, National Assessment of Water
   Pollution From Nonpoint Sources, Draft of Final Report, prepared
   for U.S. Environmental Protection agency, Contract Number
   68-01-2293, November  1975, pp.  16, 24, 25.

                                 402

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major carriers of these organisms, which are more serious on con-
struction sites where improper sanitary conditions exist.

     Construction activities are estimated to affect about 10 percent
of the EPA-designated hydrological drainage basins in the United
States (Figure 6-31).  The Northwest Region (Federal Region X) and
the New England, New York-New Jersey, and Middle Atlantic Regions
(Federal Regions I, 11, and III) have the most affected basins—about
25 and 15 percent, respectively—while the South Central and West
Regions (Federal Regions VI and IX) have not reported any basins
affected by construction activities.

     From 1975 to 2000, a growing population will demand the develop-
ment of land to accommodate new housing, roads, utilities, communica-
tions, and sewage systems, all of which yield construction-related
pollution.  In both of our scenarios, construction is expected to
double between 1975 and 2000.   Thus, although many states and coun-
ties require runoff controls on construction sites,1-" pollution
from this source will remain a cause of concern.

6.4  IMPLICATIONS OF WATER POLLUTION TRENDS

6.4.1  Point and Non-point Sources

     Deterioration of our nation's water quality results from both
point and non-point discharges, as has been described in the preced-
ing sections of this chapter.   While there is sometimes little dis-
tinction between the two types of sources, in general point source
pollution is associated with discharges from municipal and industrial
sources where the wastes originate from a pipe or other conduit.
Non-point source pollution, on the other hand, is far more diffuse
and stems from storrawater runoff from urban, agricultural, forested,
construction, and mining areas, as well as from natural background
sources.

     Point source pollution is often more intensive and concentrated
than non-point pollution and can discharge large quantities of pol-
lutants in one stream segment.  Non-point source pollution is gener-
ally more extensive and accompanied by high dilution may pollute more
stream miles in a given water basin.  Point sources are also of pri-
mary concern during low-flow stream conditions when non-point sources
are relatively inactive.  Conversely, non-point pollutants are freely
discharged during high-flow stream conditions when point sources have
less impact on water quality.   Thus, while point source pollution is
   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
   Inventory/1977 Report to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, October
   1978, pp. 1-3.
                                  403

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-P-
o
           NOTE:   Basins where some (or all) stream segments have a problem with pollution
                  from  construction activities that is not minor or insignificant,  according
                  to  state officials.  Affected basins are shaded.
           Source:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality Inventory/
                   1977 Report to  Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, Washington, B.C., October
                   1978, p.  21.
                                            FIGURE 6-31
                         EPA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
                      AFFECTED BY POLLUTION FROM CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES
                                               1977

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generally continuous, non-point source pollution is primarily related
to storm events.  Nevertheless, non-point source can release substan-
tial amounts of pollutants.  A severe 15-minute storm can sometimes
create more pollution than a particular point source over a year.

     The nation's most widespread water quality problems are high
levels of nutrients, bacterial pollution, high concentrations of
suspended sediment, and heavy loadings of oxygen-demanding material
(BOD) and consequent oxygen depletion in streams.  In addition, toxic
pollutants (heavy metals, nonmetallic toxics, and pesticides) are of
particular concern because of their persistence, toxic effects at
very low concentrations, and ability to enter the aquatic food chain,
and because of the difficulty of controlling these substances by con-
ventional municipal treatment technology.  ^

     Both point and non-point sources contribute to these pollutant
problems; the relative impact that particular sources have on water
quality is different, although not clearly known.  The type, magni-
tude and concentration of pollutants generated by each source, as
well as the assimilated capacities of streams and the pollutants re-
leased by natural background sources, must be considered in determin-
ing the water quality impacts from point and non-point sources.
However, because point sources are discrete in nature and non-point
sources are diffuse, water quality impacts are easier to assess from
point source releases than from non-point source releases.  Neverthe-
less, it is generally agreed that point and non-point sources do
affect water quality in a variety of ways.

     For example, excess suspended solids from non-point sources cur-
rently affect more than half of our drainage basins,  while excess
suspended solids from point sources affect about one-third (Figure
6-32).  Similarly, dissolved solids from non-point sources generally
affect twice as many basins as do dissolved solids from point sources
(Figure 6-33).  These patterns reflect differences in the geographic
distribution of major sources.

     In contrast, pollution problems associated with oxygen depletion
(measured as BOD discharge) is caused more by point sources than by
non-point sources because of municipal and industrial discharges;
almost 80 percent of the basins are affected by point sources of BOD,
compared to about 50 percent from non-point sources,  notably agricul-
ture and urban runoff (Figure 6-34).
   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
   Inventory/1977 Report to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, October 1978,
   pp. 1-3..

                                405

-------
                      FROM POINT SOURCES
                      FROM NON-POINT SOURCES
NOTE:   Basins where some (or all)  stream segments have a  problem with
       suspended solids that is  not minor or insignificant, according
       to  state officials.   Affected basins are shaded.

Source:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
        Inventory/1977 Report to  Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001,  Washington,
        D.C., 1978, p. 4.
                           FIGURE 6-32
        EPA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
                AFFECTED BY SUSPENDED SOLIDS
                               1977

                               406

-------
                     FROM POINT SOURCES
                     FROM NON-POINT SOURCES
NOTE:   Basins where some (or all) stream segments  have a problem with
       dissolved solids that is not minor or insignificant, according
       to  state officials.   Affected basins are shaded.

Source:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
        Inventory/1977 Report to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, Washington,
        D.C., October 1978.

                           FIGURE 6-33
        EPA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
                 AFFECTED BY DISSOLVED SOLIDS
                              1977
                               407

-------
                          FROM POINT SOURCES
                        FROM NON-POINT SOURCES
NOTE:   Basins where some (or all)  stream segments have a problem with
       biochemical oxygen demand that is not minor or insignificant,
       according to state officials.  Affected basins are shaded.
Source:   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
         Inventory/1977 Report  to  Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, Washington,
         B.C., October 1978.

                           FIGURE 6-34
       ERA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
          AFFECTED BY BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND
                              1977

                              408

-------
     Problems with toxic pollutants are also associated more with
point than non-point sources, with point sources affecting about
twice as many basins (Figure 6-35).  Industrial activities are the
primary sources of toxic point source releases.  Pesticides in agri-
cultural runoff and heavy metals in urban and mining runoff are the
main non-point sources of toxic releases.

     Water pollution by nutrient releases is attributable about
equally to point and non-point sources (Figure 6-36).  Municipal dis-
charges and combined sewer overflows are the principal point source
contributors, while agricultural and urban runoff are the primary
non-point source contributors.

     Of all pollutants, oil and grease affect the smallest number of
basins across the United States from both point and non-point sources
(Figure 6-37).  Heavy industrial activity and urban runoff are the
primary contributors to this pollution problem, so it is not surpris-
ing to find that the New England, New York-New Jersey, Middle
Atlantic, and Great Lakes Regions (Federal Regions I, II, III, and V)
have the most widespread problems from oil and grease releases.

     Many of the municipal treatment plants and other point source
pollution control facilities built during the last decade are just
beginning to yield benefits.  Early evaluation of their effectiveness
reveals that water quality is improving in many specific places, par-
ticularly the urban belt south of the Great Lakes.1^1  Although
continued improvement may be expected over the next several years,
new toxic pollutants will likely be discovered in the future given
the ever increasing sophistication of pollutant monitoring equipment.
Moreover, because health effects are likely to be observed at lower
and lower concentrations for both new and existing toxic compounds,
toxic pollutants from point source discharges will continue to be an
important concern for the future.

     In addition, control of non-point source pollution has not pro-
gressed as fast as control of point sources.  In recent years, non-
point pollution has received more attention as industrial and
municipal point source discharge are brought under control.  But,
levels of suspended solids, nutrients, and BOD in our streams and
lakes have not shown noticeable improvements,142 because non-point
sources are responsible for much of these pollutants.  Indications
are that non-point pollutant discharges would probably increase in
the absence of control measures.  Thus, non-point source pollution
problems are not likely to be mitigated unless a concerted effort is
      . Geological Survey, National Stream Quality Accounting Net-
   work (NASQAN), data for 1975 to 1977.  (To be released in yearly
   sections as open file reports).
142Ibid.                          409

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FROM POINT SOURCES
FROM NON-POINT
SOURCES  (PESTICIDES
ONLY)
FROM NON-POINT
SOURCES (TOXICS OTHER
THAN PESTICIDES)
 NOTE:   Basins where some (or  all) stream segments  have a problem with
        toxic pollutants that  is  not minor or insignificant, according
        to  state officials.  Affected basins are shaded.

 Source:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  National Water Quality
         Inventory/1977 Report to Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, Washington,
         D.C., October 1978,  p.  5.

                           FIGURE 6-35
        EPA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
                AFFECTED BY TOXIC POLLUTANTS
                              1977

                              410

-------
FROM POINT
  FROM SOU-POINT SOURCES





                                      problem with




-------
                        FROM POINT SOURCES
                        FROM NON-POINT SOURCES
NOTE:   Basins where some (or all)  stream segments have a problem with
       oil  and grease that is not  minor or insignificant,  according
       to state officials.  Affected basins are shaded.

Source:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Water Quality
        Inventory/1977 Report to  Congress, EPA 440/4-78-001, Washington,
        D.C., 1978.

                          FIGURE 6-37
       EPA-DESIGNATED HYDROLOGICAL DRAINAGE BASINS
                 AFFECTED BY OIL AND GREASE
                             1977
                              412

-------
made to reduce pollutant discharges to surface waters by controlling
the problem at the source—in other words, by promoting the wide-
spread use of Best Management Practices.

6.4.2  Comparison of Point and Selected Non-point Source Discharge
       Trends

     This section compares water pollutant discharge trends for those
pollutants and those point and selected non-point sources currently
included in the SEAS model.  For point sources, this includes most
municipal and industrial discharges (although with limitations, as
discussed Section 6.2).  For non-point sources, this includes
agricultural runoff (limited, however, to surface runoff from the
production of eight major crop commodities) and urban runoff.

     It should again be noted that point source trends projections
are predicated on full compliance by point source dischargers with
EPA effluent guideline standards; hence, the projections may be con-
sidered uncertain and perhaps optimistic.  On the other hand, the
non-point projections are based on an assumption, for urban runoff,
of no control measures and, for agricultural runoff, of no change in
the proportion of cropland adequately treated for soil conservation
measures and a continuation of recent trends in pesticide and ferti-
lizer use.

     The inclusion of only two non-point sources in our projections
underestimates pollutant discharges from non-point sources.  This
bias is most critical for BOD, nitrogen, and phosphorus, because some
sizable non-point sources—pastureland, rangeland, silviculture, and
construction—that significantly contribute to these releases are not
included.  Also, because agricultural runoff does not include the
effects of irrigation return flows, suspended and dissolved solids in
the 17 western states are also underestimated.  In addition, because
the above activities, as well as mining, are expected to grow rapidly
by 2000, growth of non-point source discharges from 1975 to 2000 is
somewhat underestimated.

     These deficiencies should be kept in mind while reviewing the
point and selected non-point source discharge trends presented
below.143
143Trends in pesticide discharges are not included here because
   SEAS projects these discharges for agricultural runoff only (see
   Section 6.3.3).

                                 413

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     General Trends

     In the SEAS estimates for 1975, the selected non-point sources
of pollution discharged a far greater amount of the total suspended
solids and total dissolved solids releases than point sources (Table
6-39).  Although point sources of pollution appear to predominate in
releases of other pollutants, this is simply because the sizable non-
point sources discussed above are not included.  Indeed, if projec-
tions of non-point source releases included all non-point sources,
most BOD, nitrogen, and phosphorus would derive from non-point
sources.  Point sources would still, in all probability, predominate
in oil and grease releases. ^^

     In the High Growth Scenario from 1975 to 2000, releases of BOD,
phosphorus, and oil and grease are projected to decline for the three
sources considered, while pollutant releases of suspended solids, dis-
solved solids, and nitrogen are projected to increase.   Underlying
these overall trends is an increase in the selected non-point source
pollutant releases, offset by a general decline in point source pol-
lutant releases.  One notable exception is point source releases of
dissolved solids, which are projected to increase faster than any
other point or selected non-point source pollutant. ^

     In the Low Growth Scenario, pollutant releases—point and selec-
ted non-point—are expected to increase at a slower rate (or decline
at a faster rate) due to slower growth in population and economic
activity.

      Analysis of Trends1/f6

      In 1975, four regions—Southeast, Great Lakes, South Central,
and Central Regions (Federal Regions IV, V, VI, and VII)—generated
about 85 percent of the suspended and dissolved solids  discharges
(Table 6-40).  Of the three sources included, the major contributor
to these discharges was agricultural runoff, due to the sizable
         on information in Midwest Research Institute, National
   Assessment of Water Pollution From Nonpoint Sources, Draft of
   Final Report, prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
   Contract No. 68-01-2293, November 1975.  Also U.S. Environmental
   Protection Agency, "Pilot Assessment of Ambient Conditions, Part
   II:  Pollution Sources and Trends," December 11, 1979.
li!f5See Section 6.2.4 for further details.
        nitrogen, and phosphorus releases are not included in this
   discussion because the understatement of non-point source pollu-
   tion prevents meaningful detailed analysis.
                                414

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                             TABLE 6-39
           TRENDS IN DISCHARGES OF MAJOR WATER POLLUTANTS
              FROM POINT AND SELECTED NON-POINT SOURCES3
                                                    2000
                             1975
                           Quantity
                           (103 tons)
High Growth
Percent of
1975 Value
Low Growth
Percent of
1975 Value
BOD
  Point            b          2,800
  Selected Nonpoint           1,000

Total Suspended Solids
  Point                       5,700
  Selected Nonpoint°        100,000

Total Dissolved Solids
  Point                       7,900
  Selected Nonpoint0         44,000

Nitrogen
  Point            b            790
  Selected Nonpoint              64

Phosphorus
  Point            b            290
  Selected Nonpoint               8

Oil and Grease
  Point            d            480
  Selected Nonpoint              86
    62
   121
    31
   121
   212
   121
   111
   123
    81
   150
    71
   122
    56
   107
    28
   104
   177
   104
   103
   114
    76
   125
    56
   114
 Assumes point sources are controlled (i.e., net discharges) and non-
 point sources are not controlled (i.e., gross discharges).

 Includes urban runoff and agricultural runoff for eight major crop
 commodities only.  Thus, total gross non-point source pollutant
 releases are very much understated.  Indeed, if all non-point sources
 were included, the net point source releases shown would be far less
 than gross non-point source releases (see text for further explanation).

CIncludes urban runoff and agricultural runoff for eight major crop
 commodities only.  Thus, total gross non-point source pollutant release
 are understated.  Indeed, if all non-point sources were included, the
 net point source contribution to the national total would be even less
 than is now indicated (see text for further explanation).

 Includes urban runoff only.  If all non-point sources are included, it
 is still expected that net point source discharges would dominate (see
 text for further explanation).
                                 415

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                                                  TABLE  6-40
                                  TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF TOTAL
                               SUSPENDED SOLIDS AND TOTAL DISSOLVED  SOLIDS*
                                            HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                                               1975 AND  2000
                                      Total  Suspended Solids
Total Dissolved Solids
1975

Region
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.


New England
New York-New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total1'

Quantity
(103 tons)
950
1,600
6,000
25,000
25,000
17,000
24,000
2,000
970
2,600
106,000
Percent of
National
Total
1
2
6
24
24
16
23
2
1
2
100
2000

Percent of
1975 Value
101
101
119
116
131
106
113
96
99
117
116
Perront of
National
Total
1
1
6
24
27
14
22
2
1
2
100
1975

Quantity
(1C3 tons)
640
1,200
3,900
12,000
13,000
7,700
11,000
1,300
800
1,200
52,000
Percent of
National
Total
1
2
7
23
24
15
21
2
2
2
100
2000

Percent of
1975 Value
166
142
149
136
139
131
117
137
189
163
135
Percent of
National
Total
2
3
8
23
25
14
18
2
2
3
100
'Includes point sources, urban runoff,  and  agricultural runoff,  and reflects the control of  point sources
 (i.e., net discharges) and the lack of control of nonpoint sources  (i.e., gross discharges).   See text
 •P/-\v- •• -n T- ,-. •***•>. 1- f* *- O }- -. S~\r\
for interpretation.
Rounding may create  inconsistencies in addition.

-------
amounts of crop production in these regions.  Only.three regions in
the United States—the New England, New York-New Jersey, and West
Regions (Federal Regions I, II, and IX)—generated more suspended and
dissolved solid releases in 1975 from urban runoff and/or point
sources than from agricultural runoff.

     Suspended solid releases in Federal Regions I,  II, III, V, and
VII were greater from urban runoff than from point sources in 1975,
while the opposite was the case in the other five regions (Figure
6-38).  Dissolved solids releases, on the other hand, were more
prevalent from point sources than from urban runoff in 1975 in all
but three regions (Federal Regions I, II, and X) (Figure 6-39).

     From 1975 to 2000 in the High Growth Scenario,  both suspended
and dissolved solids discharges are expected to increase, at differ-
ing regional rates that reflect different economic bases and differ-
ent trends in economic and population growth.  Suspended solids
releases are projected to increase most rapidly in the Great Lakes
Region (Federal Region V), reflecting increases in agricultural
acreage.  Dissolved solids releases are projected to increase most
rapidly in the West Region (Federal Region IX), reflecting increases
in point source discharges.  However, no major shift is projected in
the regional distributions of either total suspended solid or total
dissolved solid releases.

     The relative contributions of point and the selected non-point
sources, however, are expected to change in certain regions between
1975 and 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  For example, in the West
Region (Federal Region IX), point sources contributed the most to
suspended solids releases in 1975 but are expected to contribute the
least by 2000.  On the other hand, in the Middle Atlantic and Moun-
tain Regions (Federal Regions III and VIII), agricultural runoff
contributed the most to dissolved solids releases in 1975 but, by
2000, point sources are projected to contribute the most.

     In the Low Growth Scenario, by 2000, regional suspended solids
releases are generally projected to decline or remain at 1975 levels.
The one exception is in the Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V),
where, as in the High Growth Scenario, suspended solids releases are
projected to increase between 1975 and 2000 due to increased agricul-
tural acreage.  Dissolved solids releases are projected in the Low
Growth Scenario to increase more slowly; in two regions—Central and
Mountain (Federal Regions VII and VIII)—no significant change is
projected between 1975 and 2000.  By 2000, the regional distributions
for total suspended solids and total dissolved solids are projected
to be the same as in the High Growth Scenario.
                                  417

-------
50
40
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U A P U A P
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REGION I
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U A P
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REGION II
New York -
New Jersey








t


















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U A P
2000
REGION III
Middle
Atlantic
                      FIGURE 6-38
TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF TOTAL SUSPENDED SOLIDS BY
    POLLUTING SOURCE HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 1975 AND 2000
                          418

-------
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REGION VII
Central
                 FIGURE 6-38 (CONTINUED)
TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF TOTAL SUSPENDED SOLIDS BY
    POLLUTING SOURCE HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 1975 AND 2000
                          419

-------
D
                                          I Gross Urban Runoff (U)


                                          Gross Agricultural
                                          Runoff (A)

                                          Net Point Sources (P)
 50

 40

 30

 20

10.0



9.0
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                                                                     5-0
                                                                     4.0
                                                                     3.0
                                                                     2.0
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                                     FIGURE 6-38 (CONCLUDED)
                  TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF TOTAL SUSPENDED SOLIDS BY
                      POLLUTING SOURCE HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 1975 AND 2000
                                              420

-------
       50

       40

       30

       20

       10.0
Gross Urban Runoff (U)

DGross Agricultural
Runoff (A)

Net Point Sources (P)
                         FIGURE 6-39
TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF TOTAL DISSOLVED SOLIDS BY
    POLLUTING SOURCE HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 1975 AND 2000
                              421

-------
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40

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                                    Net Point Sources (P)
               DGro
               Run
               Gross Agricultural
                 off (A)

        U  A  P  U A  P
        1975     2000
                        U  A P
                        1975
                             U A P
                              2000
U A P
 1975
U A  P
 2000
U A P  U  A  P
 1975    2000
           REGION IV
           Southeast
                           REGION V
                          Great Lakes
                                         REGION VI
                                       South Central
                   REGION VII
                   Central
                         FIGURE 6-39 (CONTINUED)
   TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF TOTAL DISSOLVED SOLIDS BY
       POLLUTING SOURCE HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 1975 AND 2000
                                    422

-------
                                 Cross Urban Runoff (Lr)
                                 DGro,
                                 Run
                 Gross Agricultural
                   ioff (A)

                 Net Point Sources (P)
         U A  P
          1975
U A P
 2000
           REGION VIII
            Mountain
U A P  U A  P
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            REGION IX
             West
U A P  U A  P
 1975     2000
                   REGION X
                   Northwest
                                50

                                40

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                              10.0



                               9.0



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                     FIGURE 6-39 (CONCLUDED)
TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF TOTAL DISSOLVED SOLIDS BY
    POLLUTING SOURCE HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 1975 AND 2000
                                423

-------
     With regard to total oil and grease discharges, the Great Lakes
Region (Federal Region V) generated about one-fourth of the dis-
charges in 1975, and the Middle Atlantic, Southeast, and South
Central Regions (Federal Regions III, IV, and VI) contributed about
one-third (Table 6-41).  In all regions, point sources were the
primary contributors to oil and grease discharges in 1975 (Figure
6-40).

     In the High Growth Scenario, oil and grease discharges are pro-
jected to triple from 1975 to 2000 in the Northwest Region (Federal
Region X) even assuming all required control measures, due primarily
to the continued development of Alaskan oil.  Conversely, oil and
grease releases could be reduced markedly in the Great Lakes, Cen-
tral, and Mountain Regions (Federal Regions V, VII, and VIII) if
industry complies with all existing regulations.
                             TABLE 6-41
                    TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES
                         OF OIL AND GREASE3
                        HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                            1975 AND 2000
                                      1975
                           2000
          Region

   I  New England
  II  New York-New Jersey
 III  Middle Atlantic
  IV  Southeast
   V  Great Lakes
  VI  South Central
 VII  Central
VIII  Mountain
  IX  West
   X  Northwest

     Totalb
          Percent
             of
Quantity  National
(103tons)  Total
                 Percent
        Percent     of
        of 1975  National
         Value    Total
    28
    46
    61
    55
   160
    68
    22
     7
    27
     8

   560
  5
  8
 10
 10
 27
 12
  4
  1
  5
  1

100
 77
 82
 66
 83
 32
113
 40
 45
 78
299

 79
  5
  9
  9
 10
 11
 17
  2
  1
  5
  5

100
alncludes point sources and urban runoff, and reflects the control
 of point sources (i.e., net discharges) and the lack of control of
 non-point sources (i.e., gross discharges).  See text for inter-
 pretation of these data.
^Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                  424

-------
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    40



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    20



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    9.0 -
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    6.0 -
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     3.0 -
     2.0 -
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Gross Urban Runoff (U)



Net Point Sources (P)
                      FIGURE 6-40

 TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF OIL AND GREASE BY

POLLUTING SOURCE HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 1975 AND 2000
                         425

-------
50

40

30

20
  <«

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£  9-°
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   7.0
   6.0
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                   Net Point Sources (P)
        U    P
        1975
             U    P
             2000
U   P  U    P
 1975    2000
U   P  U    P
 1975     2000
U    P   U    P
 1975    2000
           REGION IV
           Southeast
                         REGION V
                        Great Lakes
                   REGION VI
                  South Central
                   REGION VII
                   Central
                      FIGURE 6-40 (CONTINUED)
     TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF OIL AND GREASE BY
     POLLUTING SOURCE HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 1975 AND 2000
                                426

-------




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1975 2000 1975 2000
REGION IX REGION X
West Northwest
3U
40
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20
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9.0 »
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             FIGURE 6-40 (CONCLUDED)
TRENDS IN REGIONAL DISCHARGES OF OIL AND GREASE BY
POLLUTING SOURCE HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO 1975 AND 2000
                       427

-------
     This variation in regional growth rates is reflected in expected
changes in the regional distribution of oil and grease discharges.
If full compliance with EPA effluent guidelines standards is achieved
by industry, the relative contribution between point sources and
urban runoff would change between 1975 and 2000 in the High Growth
Scenario.  In particular, in the Great Lakes and Central Regions
(Federal Regions V and VII), urban runoff is projected to contribute
more than point sources to oil and grease discharges by 2000.

     In the Low Growth Scenario, oil and grease discharges are pro-
jected to decline in all regions except Region X where, as in the
High Growth Scenario, discharges are projected to triple.  The re-
gional distribution of oil and grease discharges is not projected to
differ greatly between scenarios by 2000.

6.4.3  Major Water Quality Problems in Regions

     The major water quality problems affecting each region are sum-
marized in Table 6-42.  This summary includes not only the point and
non-point pollutants covered in the SEAS model but also other pol-
lutants that have been discussed in Sections 6.2 and 6.3 in this
chapter.

6.4.4  Impacts of Population and Industrial Change on Water Quality

     Population Shifts

     A major trend evident throughout most of this chapter is a pro-
nounced shift in growth, of water pollution discharges to the south-
ern and western parts of the country between 1975 and 2000.  This
shift has been attributed to assumed higher population and economic
growth rates in the Southeast, South Central, and West Regions
(Federal Regions IV, VI, and IX), and declining growth rates in the
New England, New York-New Jersey, and Middle Atlantic Regions
(Federal Regions I, II, and III).  As population and industry migrate
toward the so-called "Sunbelt" states, they can be expected to have a
substantial impact on the environments of these regions.

     This trend in population growth in the "Sunbelt" and "Frostbelt"
regions is shown in Table 6-43.  For purposes of this analysis, the
Sunbelt is defined as Federal Regions IV, VI, and IX, and the Frost-
belt is defined as Federal Regions I, II, and III.  Population in the
Sunbelt is expected to increase from 82 million in 1975 to 110 mil-
lion by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  This 35 percent increase
is in contrast to the 13 percent increase in population projected
over the same period in Federal Regions I, II, and III.
                                 428

-------
                                               TABLE  6-42
                       MAJOR WATER QUALITY  PROBLEMS AFFECTING  EACH  FEDERAL  REGION
            Region
                              Point
           New England
     II
New York/
New Jersey
ro
     III   Middle Atlantic
     IV
Southeast
                   Heavy industry discharges of
                   toxics of major concern.
The pulp and paper industry
contributes to problems with BOD
discharges.

Toxic pollutants, particularly
cadmium, are expected to be the
major water quality problem.  The
cadmium emanates primarily from
the organic chemicals industry.
                   Primarily because of the predomi-
                   nance of coal-fired power plants,
                   copper discharges are a major
                   pollutant.
                                             Non-point
                                    Urban runoff continues to be an
                                    important source of water prob-
                                    lems.  Sediment losses are of
                                    major concern as well.
Pollutants from urban runoff are
expected to be a problem because
of densely populated areas.
                                    Construction activities are also
                                    expected to pose water quality
                                    problems.

                                    Water pollution problems associ-
                                    ated with mining activities cause
                                    the most concern.  The most
                                    serious is acid mine drainage.
Because of its expected population  Increased urbanization leads to
                              growth  and  industrial  expansion,
                              problems  in all  pollutants  will
                              increase.
                                                       urban runoff problems.
                                                                  Two-thirds  of all miscellaneous
                                                                  pesticides  in the water are in
                                                                  this  region,  due to tobacco-
                                                                  growing activities.
                                              (continued)

-------
                                               TABLE 6-42
                                              (CONTINUED)
            Region
            Point
          Great Lakes
u>
o
     VI   South Central
     VII  Central
Population increasing and greater
utilization of sewage treatment
lead to high levels of BOD.

Coal mining and preparation are
responsible for high levels of
suspended solids.
Coal-fired power plants create
problems associated with copper
discharges.

The greatest population increase
and industrial expansion is ex-
pected here, and so is the greatest
increase in almost all major and
toxic water pollutants.
         Non-point
The meat processing industry is
the major polluter.  Oil and grease
and phenols are special problems.
Agricultural runoff, especially
of nitrogen and phosphorus, is
a major problem.

Urban runoff (particularly
combined sewer overflows)
causes water quality problems
as well.
Heavy metals, primrily from ore
mining, are a particular hazard.

Pollutants associated with urban
runoff, such as BOD and suspended
solids, are expected to be of
greater importance because of
rapid growth rates.

Agricultural runoff from
irrigated cropland is also of
concern.

Agricultural runoff is the
primary pollution source.
Nitrogen, phosphorus, and fungi-
cides due to soybean and corn
production are of particular
concern.
                                              (continued)

-------
                                          TABLE 6-42
                                         (CONCLUDED)
       Region
            Point
VIII Mountain
   IX  West
    X  Northwest
BOD and nitrogen will become
greater problems because of
population growth.
Increased coal mining and prepara-
tion activity is expected to
increase discharges of dissolved
solids and phenol.

Increased refining activities of
Alaskan oil make oil and grease
pollutants a continuing problem.

Oil and grease discharges from
the Alaskan pipeline are of
major concern.

Discharges of dissolved solids
are expected to increase because
of growth in coal-fired and
nuclear-generated electricity.
         Non-point
Heavy metals from mining and
dissolved solids from irrigation
return flows activities are
expected to pose water quality
problems.
Sediment and pesticides from
silviculture are the major
water quality problem.

Almost half of the national
discharge of fungicides is
projected here, primarily from
potato production.

-------
                        TABLE 6-43
POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTIONS, SUNBELT AND FROSTBELT REGIONS
                         1975-2000
High Growth
Population
Sunbelt
Co
N>







IV. Southeast
VI. South Central
IX West
Total
Frostbelt
I. New England
II. New York/New Jersey
III. Middle Atlantic
Total
35
22
25
82

12
25
24
62
Percent of
National

16
10
12
38

16
12
11
29
Population

41
25
28
94

13
26
26
65
Percent of

17
14
15
15

7
3
7
5
Percent of
National

17
11
12
40

6
11
11
28
L


40
24
28
92

13
26
25
64
ow Growth
Percent of

14
11
12
12

4
1
4
3
High Growth
Percent of

17
11
12
40

6
11
11
28


48
30
32
110

14
27
28
70
Percent of

38
35
31
135

17
8
16
13
Percent of
National

19
11
12
42

6
11
11
27
Lo


44
27
30
100

14
27
27
67
w Growth
Percent of

25
21
21
23

11
5
11
9
Percent of
National

18
11
12
41

6
11
11
27

-------
     Although notable population shifts toward the southern and
southwestern states are already incorporated into SEAS projections,
there is evidence to suggest that population growth rates in several
Sunbelt states are sharply underestimated while those in several
Frostbelt states are overstated.  State population shares in SEAS are
based upon 1977 interim revisions to the latest comprehensive re-
gional economic and demographic forecast (OBERS) released by the
Department of Commerce.     Although this forecast incorporates
adjustments for overseas population and the 1970 census undercount,
these estimates differ from more recent data in several ways.  By
1975, five Sunbelt states—Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina,
Arizona, and Texas—had already exceeded OBERS 1980 population pro-
jections, and one state, New Mexico, had already surpassed its
1990 projection.-*-^"  With respect to northeastern states, interim
revisions to OBERS projections forecast a population growth in New
York State of 1.1 million people over the 1970 to 1980 period when,
in fact, population had decreased by 300,000 as of 1977; Pennsylvania
has lost 16,000 people over the same period in contrast to a pro-
jected increase of nearly 800,000.

     Current SEAS projections indicate that population impacts on
water quality in Sunbelt states would be most notable in higher load-
ings of fecal coliform bacteria, oxygen-demanding materials, phos-
phorus, and nitrogen from greater amounts of raw sewage processed by
municipal treatment plants.  A more pronounced migratory shift to Sun-
belt states can only be expected to affect water quality more severe-
ly with respect to these pollutants.  Since the southwestern area of
the United States reported only 36 and 14 percent of its hydrological
basins affected by oxygen depletion in 1977 from point and non-point
sources respectively (Tables 6-2 and 6-23), a more marked Sunbelt
shift would be likely to increase pollution in currently affected
basins and to pollute a greater number of basins by 2000.

     Further water quality impacts are anticipated from industrial
growth in the Sunbelt, where industry is projected to expand more
rapidly than in north central and northeastern states.  Howevers the
dimensions of these impacts are not well defined.  The belief, often
stated, that a great many firms are leaving the northeast for Sunbelt
   U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
   Population, Personal Income, and Earnings by State:   Projections
   to 2000, Washington, D.C. ,  October 1977.
   U.S. House of Representatives, Select Committee on Population,
   Domestic Consequences of United States Population Change,
   Washington, D.C., December 1978.
                                 433

-------
states is not borne out by a recent report from the Economic Develop-
ment Administration.1^"  This report attributes higher economic
growth rates in the Sunbelt to new enterprises and expansion of
existing firms rather than to industrial migration.  Also, although
economic development creates employment and other opportunities, it
has negative effects, among which is water pollution.  The severity
of water quality problems associated with excessive suspended solids,
oil and grease, heavy metals, pH, thermal pollution, and toxic chemi-
cals is expected to depend on the degree to which economic develop-
ment shifts to southern and southwestern states.

     Although the Sunbelt region is the most striking example, other
areas of the country can also expect water quality problems because
of population and industrial changes.  Two examples are the Mountain
and Northwest Regions (VIII and X).  Here, water quality impacts can
be attributed in part to another kind of population movement taking
place in some sections of the United States—that of migration from
highly urbanized to rural and small town areas.

     From April 1970 to July 1975, nonmetropolitan population in the
country increased at an average rate of 1.2 percent per annum com-
pared with a metropolitan population growth rate of 0.8 percent per
year.  This is in contrast to the 1960 to 1970 population pattern
which showed an annual growth rate of 0.4 percent for the nonmetro-
politan population and 1.6 percent for the metropolitan. 1^0  -phe
net urban-to-rural migration (1.8 million people over the 1970 to
1975 period), if it continues, is likely to have major implications
in terms of water quality, particularly in the regions (e.g., Federal
Regions VIII and X) that are now more rural in character and are
expected to experience much of this anticipated migration.

     One major implication of dispersion of population to more rural
areas concerns on-site treatment of sewage.  As population density
decreases and distances to centralized treatment facilities increase,
the septic tank becomes more attractive as a wastewater treatment
alternative. 1-* 1  As a result, areas expected to receive urban-to-
rural migrants can also be expected to treat greater quantities of
  'U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administra-
   tion, Documenting the "Decline" of the North, Washington, D.C.,
   June 1978.
150Beale, D.L. , "The Recent Shift of United States Population to
   Nonmetropolitan Areas, 1970-1975," International Regional Science
   Review, Vol. 2, 1977.
1 C 1	'       '
LDidowning, P.B., The Economics of Urban Sewage Disposal, Frederick
   A. Praeger, Inc., New York, 1969.
                                434

-------
sewage on-site than more urbanized regions.  This tendency is not re-
flected particularly well in current SEAS projections.
                                                              *•
     Water quality problems from on-site treatment can be more seri-
ous than those in municipal treatment plants.  Septic systems are
considered to be significant sources of groundwater contamination
and, in some cases, surface water pollution.  Septic tank problems
relate to seepage either into the local water table or into surface
waterways.  Serious problems occur when the soil on which septic sys-
tems depend for absorption is not capable of purifying septic tank
effluent before it reaches the ground water.  In such cases, water in
the surrounding area can be contaminated.

     Seepage from septic tanks contains large amounts of grit,
grease, solids, organic material, and heavy metals.  The constituents
of special concern are fecal coliform bacteria, ammonia, and phos-
phorus.  Septic systems are not considered very effective in removing
nitrogen from waste in most deeply aerated soils; nitrate levels have
been found to be as high as 40 milligrams per liter within 20 feet of
such a system.152  Phosphates are less a problem because they may
be removed by absorption in fine calcareous soils.

     Water quality problems in nonurbanized areas are not limited to
disposal of sewage.  Greater dispersion of the population may also
increase the severity of problems associated with soil erosion and
urban runoff.  As indicated in Table 6-44, water pollution can be
expected to increase as population densities decline.  Urban sprawl
increases the amount of spil erosion because of the greater land
areas used for roadways and construction.  Development on land less
suitable for settlement, such as on steep slopes and flood plains,
can also aggravate runoff problems.  Greater quantities of pollutants
from stormwater runoff can be expected as the population disperses;
low density settlements can generate almost a third more stormwater
by volume than high density planned settlements.

     The urban/rural population movements can also indirectly affect
water quality through their impacts on prime agricultural land.  In
1977, U.S. cropland amounted to 400 million acres, of which 250 mil-
lion were considered prime.  Between 1967 and 1975, 17 million acres
of cropland were converted to urban use; almost half was prime
152Ziebell, W.A., and E. McCoy, The Effects of Effluents on Ground-
   water;  Bacteriological Aspects, Paper presented at the Second
   National Conference on Onsite Disposal, National Sanitation Foun-
   dation, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1975.
                                 435

-------
                                        TABLE  6-44
              COMMUNITY  COST ANALYSIS  WATER  POLLUTION AND EROSION


                    	Community Development Pattern (10,000 Units	

                    Planned   Combination  Sprawl    Low Density   Low Density   High Density
                      Mix
                                  Mix
                                             Mix
                                                      Planned
                                                                    Sprawl
 Sediments  from
    Erosion	

 Average annual
 volume during
 development
 period (tons
 per year)0

 Pollutants from
   Storm Runoff

 Total  volume of
 runoff (thousands
 of liters  per
 year)c
4,470
4,450
4,430
                                   5,600
                                   6,170
7,786
                                  7,809
           7,836
                                   8,512
                                                                     9,177
                                                             Planned
                                                               3,640
                                                               7,141
Pollutants
(kilograms per
year)3
BOD
COD
Nitrogen
Phosphate
Suspended
Solids
FCB (Number
x 10~6 per
year)


181
490
21
5

7,786

9,343


182
492
21
6

7,809

9,343


183
294
21
6

7,837

9,404


198
536
23
7

8,511

10


214
578
25
7

9,176

11,012


166
450
19
6

7,141

8,370
 Fifty percent PUD,  50  percent sprawl.

 Volumes of sediment  from erosion calculated using same  assumptions as in analysis of neighbor-
 hood water pollution and erosion areas derived from community prototype land budgets.  Average
 duration of construction activity assumed to be .5 year.

 Volumes of storm  runoff calculated using same assumptions  as in analysis of neighborhood water
 pollution and erosion.  Areas derived from community prototype land budgets.  Annual precipi-
 tation is assumed to be 40 inches.
d
 Pollutant quantities from stormwater runoff use same assumptions as in analysis of neighbor-
 hood water pollution and erosion.

SOURCE:   Real Estate  Research Corporation, The Costs of  Sprawl, Washington, DC, April 4,  1974.
         Used with permission.
                                            436

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agricultural land.  Nationally, losses of prime farmland are esti-
mated to approach 1 million acres per year.153

     Loss of cropland to urban uses can be expected to have a detri-
mental effect on water quality not only because of the negative
impacts associated with conversion, but also because of loss of the
beneficial functions of open land.  Open lands, including farmlands,
help maintain local water supplied by absorbing precipitation and
transferring the water to groundwater systems.  Open lands protect
the hydrologic integrity of watersheds by controlling stormwater
runoff and sediment damage, and protect aquifer recharge areas and
serve as buffers for water supply and other natural areas.^^^

     As prime cropland is converted to urban uses, more marginal
land, such as pastureland and rangeland, is likely to be brought
under cultivation.  As of 1975, only 110 million acres of such lands
were estimated to have high or medium potential for conversion to
cropland.  Of this amount, only about 35 million acres could be con-
verted without significant conservation practices.1^5  xhe re-
mainder is susceptible to wind and water erosion that could create
suspended and dissolved solids pollution problems unless proper
conservation measures were applied.

     Other environmental problems can result from bringing marginal
lands into cultivation.  For example, to increase productivity, mar-
ginal lands might be subjected to more intensive fertilizer and
pesticide application that would severely degrade water quality in
the locality.  Such problems could become critical in more arid re-
gions under conditions of low stream flow and competing requirements
for water.

      Trends in population movement and land use conversion are un-
certain, but the environmental impacts of population and industrial
movement are clear.   Severe water quality degradation in surface and
ground waters could occur unless industrial,  municipal, and on-site
sources of pollutants are adequately controlled.  Even if these
sources achieved reasonable control, agricultural runoff from more
      . Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service,
   Potential Cropland Study, Statistical Bulletin No. 578,
   Washington, D.C.,   1977.
15^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality—1977,
   U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., December 1977.
      . Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service,
   Potential Cropland Study, Statistical Bulletin No.578,
   Washington, D.C.,  1977.
                                 437

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marginal croplands and urban runoff from highly dispersed settlement
patterns could seriously affect water quality.

     Emerging Industries

     Another matter of concern is industries that either do not exist
or are insignificant at present but are expected to grow substantial-
ly in the future.  These "emerging" industries need to be taken into
account because they may impact the air and water environments in
which they are situated.

     An example of an emerging industry is the synthetic fuels indus-
try, which is expected to experience tremendous growth over the next
25 years.  While the degree of penetration of this industry into the
U.S. economy is still uncertain, it is likely, given current legisla-
tion initiatives and interest, that SEAS projections used in this
chapter are conservative.  If so, water quality impacts associated
with synthetic fuels development are probably understated by SEAS.

     High transportation costs for shipping raw materials are ex-
pected to limit expansion of this industry to regions containing
significant quantities of coal and oil shale—primarily the western
areas having extensive low-sulfur coal and oil shale resources.
Water pollution impacts can therefore be expected to be regional
rather than national in scope.

     The production of synthetic liquid fuels has two types of im-
pacts on the environment:  direct, from the operation and construc-
tion of the plant itself; and indirect, from the developments
required to support the plant's operation (e.g., coal mining; shale
extraction; community growth; and construction of reservoirs, pipe-
lines, transmission lines, highways, and railroads, along with indus-
trial expansion attracted to the area by the plant).

     All synthetic fuel production technologies produce many pollut-
ants in wastewaters.  For example, high-Btu gasification plants gen-
erate dissolved solids, suspended solids, sulfur compounds, ammonia,
light hydrocarbons, tars and oils, cyanides, sulfates, and trace
elements;^56 water used for cooling is a potential source of
chemical or thermal pollution; algecides used to treat cooling tower
water could be toxic to aquatic life if released to surface waters.
Assumed compliance with effluent limitations guidelines, which are
          Research and Development Administration, Alternative
   Fuels Demonstration Program, ERDA-1547, Washington, D.C.,  1977.
                                  438

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currently being formulated by EPA, can be expected to lessen the
impacts considerably, and actual discharges of pollutants from
production are expected to affect hydrological basins only moder-
ately.  However, groundwater contamination through leachate from
solid waste disposal areas could be serious unless disposal sites are
adequately secured.

     Even if wastewaters from synthetic fuel production are ade-
quately controlled, indirect water quality impacts from resources
extraction, solid waste disposal, and population and economic growth
can be expected, and could severely affect basins in which this
development is taking place.  Although some pollution problems, par-
ticularly those related to construction, will be temporary, others,
such as those associated with solid waste disposal and final product
transportation, could have lasting and potentially harmful effects
upon the water environment.

     Summary

     Uncertainty about the nature of water pollution problems likely
to be faced by the nation over the coming decades has been high-
lighted in this section by considering contingencies related to
population shifts and emerging industries.  Clearly, many water qual-
ity problems not now defined can be expected to emerge.  Some issues
that are presently recognized, such as carcinogens in treated drink-
ing water or impacts of effluent limitations variances because of
economic hardship, cannot be meaningfully addressed given our current
state of knowledge.  Despite these shortcomings, however, projections
and other data analyzed in this chapter have indicated what we might
expect our water quality problems to be over the 1975 to 2000 period.
They have identified regions where specific pollution problems are
likely to occur and the economic conditions that might moderate these
problems.  This information provides a basis for working toward the
solution of water quality problems in the future.
                                 439

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                          CHAPTER 7
                      DRINKING WATER
                       HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 7

o  By the year 2000,  approximately 90 percent of the U.S.  population
   will be supplied with drinking water from centralized drinking
   water systems.  Many of these facilities will be small systems
   serving rural areas.

o  Although EPA and most state governments are  actively involved with
   programs designed to upgrade the quality of  drinking water,  many
   small supply systems are frequently in violation of EPA drinking
   water standards.

o  Hazardous wastes and synthetic organic contaminants have been
   noted in many drinking water supply systems, both before and after
   treatment.  Additional surveys are expected  to reveal increasing
   numbers of systems contaminated by these pollutants.

o  Chlorine used as a drinking water disinfectant may react with
   organic materials suspended in the raw water supply and form tri-
   halomethanes.

o  Recent studies have shown a correlation between the incidence of
   heart disease and geographic areas of the country which use  either
   naturally occurring or treated "soft" water.

7.1  INTRODUCTION

     National concern over the quality of drinking water has height-
ened primarily because of an increased public awareness of drinking
water pollution by industrial contaminants, urban and rural runoff,
and leachate from septic tanks.  The effects of inorganic and micro-
biological water pollutants on public health have been known and
treated for some time.  Improved analytical techniques have recently
been used to identify organic compounds and trace metals not pre-
viously detected in drinking water supplies; these compounds are not
normally removed by standard drinking water treatment methods.   Sev-
eral recently discovered pollutants may be associated with health
problems such as cancer.  Results of recent studies suggest that the
sources of these pollutants include industrial and agricultural ac-
tivities as well as the home use and disposal of chemicals in homes.

7.1.1  Legislative Background and Current Programs

     The discovery of asbestos fibers in the water supply system of
Duluth, Minnesota, and of 66 organic chemicals in the New Orleans

                                 441

-------
water supply in the early 1970s gave impetus to the passage of the
Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974.*  EPA and the states are cur-
rently implementing the Act2 by establishing programs for the pro-
tection of the nation's drinking water.  These programs included the
preparation of drinking water standards for substances which may have
or are known to have adverse public health effects.  On December 24,
1975, EPA promulgated National Interim Primary Drinking Water Regula-
tions establishing maximum permissible levels for a number of inor-
ganic compounds, chlorinated hydrocarbons, turbidity, and microbio-
logical contaminants in public drinking water.^  EPA regulations
were promulgated in February 1978, identifying procedures for indivi-
dual states to be granted the responsibility for enforcing the regu-
lations.

     It is the intent of the Act that individual state governments
assume primary roles in promulgating and enforcing regulations for
maintaining high quality drinking water.  A state can qualify for
primary enforcement responsibilities if it:

     o  Adopts regulations that are at least equal to the Federal
        regulations in protecting public health.

     o  Adopts and implements adequate surveillance and enforce-
        ment procedures.

     o  Provides for variances or exemptions that meet Federal
        requirements.

     o  Provides a plan for supplying safe drinking water under
        emergency circumstances.

     o  Keeps records and provides reports keeping EPA fully informed
        of its activities.

     Table 7-1 lists the states and territories that have been
granted responsibility for primary enforcement of the Act, and indi-
cates the date by which EPA expects the remaining states to qualify.
^•Council on Environmental Quality, The Seventh Annual Report of the
 Council on Environmental Quality, U.S. Government Printing Office,
 Washington, D.C., 1976, p.65.
2The Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974 (PL 93-523),  and as amended
 in 1977 (PL 95-190).
^Personal Communication, James McDermott, U.S. Environmental
 Protection Agency, Office of Drinking Water,  March 19,  1980.
                                 442

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                                            TABLE 7-1
            STATES  QUALIFIED  TO  ENFORCE THE  SAFE DRINKING WATER ACT
                  Year of State's Acceptance
                                                                       States Pending Acceptance
Region
Region I


Region II


Region III


Region IV





Region V

Region VI


Region VII

Region VIII


Region IX






Region X


FY 77
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
New York


Virginia


Alabama
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Mississippi
Minnesota

Arkansas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Iowa



Hawa i i









FY 78 FY 79
New Hampshire
Rhode Island


Virgin
Islands
De 1 aware
Maryland
West Virginia
Florida





Michigan Ohio
Wisconsin Illinois
New Mexico
Texas

Kansas Missouri

Colorado
Montana
North Dakota
Nevada
Arizona
California
Trust territor-
ies of the
Pacific
Guam
Alaska
Idaho
Washington
FY 80 Post FY 80
Vermont


New Jersey
Puerto Rico

Pennsylvania
District of
Columbia
North Carolina





Indiana






Utah South Dakota
Wyoming

American
Samoa





Oregon


Source:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, jit at us Report:  State Primary for Public Water Systems,
        Supervision Program,  Office  of Drinking Water Assessment, March 1979.
                                             443

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     The Act calls for both primary and secondary drinking water
regulations.  Primary regulations apply to contaminants which may
have adverse human health effects.  The maximum permissible level for
these contaminants is based on the economic and technical feasibility
of available treatment techniques.^  Secondary regulations estab-
lish contaminant levels to protect public welfare.  Under these reg-
ulations contaminants which may adversely affect the odor and/or
appearance of drinking water or cause a substantial number of persons
to discontinue use of the public water system are addressed.

     In addition, the Safe Drinking Water Act gave EPA's Administra-
tor authority to regulate the injection of fluids into subsurface
wells.  The underground injection of industrial liquid waste materi-
als was becoming an increasingly common practice.  This was particu-
larly true after the passage of the Federal Water Pollution Control
Act, which restricted direct waste discharges. Since 50 percent of
the nation's population now obtains their drinking water from ground
water sources, protection of drinking water aquifers is of import-
ance.

     To prevent contamination of underground sources of drinking
water, EPA's Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program was estab-
lished.  On April 20, 1979, and June 14, 1979, EPA proposed regula-
tions to govern the UIC program and described specific requirements
for injection facilities and monitoring.

     Two additional EPA activities, closely related to drinking water
quality, are the Surface Impoundment Assessment (SIA) Program and the
Sole Source Aquifer (SSA) Program.

     The SIA Program is designed to assist states in preparing inven-
tories and initially assessing the impacts of surface impoundments
used as liquid wasteholding pits, ponds, or lagoons.  A majority of
states have agreed to participate in the SIA Program.  Most of the
inventories have been completed, and a national report will be com-
pleted by mid-1980.

     Under the SSA Program anyone may petition EPA to designate aqui-
fers that serve as the sole or principal source of drinking water for
a given area.  No Federal financial assistance may be extended to any
project in a designated area if the project may contaminate the sole
source aquifer so as to create a significant hazard to public health.
^Personal Communication, James McDermott, U.S. Environmental
 Protection Agency, Office of Drinking Water, March 19, 1980.
5Ibid.
                                  444

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7.1.2  Data Sources and Quality

     Information used in the preparation of this chapter was obtained
through a review of a number of reports and studies.  The major data
sources used include the following:

     EPA Operating Year Guidance, I9606

     The Nation's Water Resources, 19787

     Drinking Water Supplies in Rural America, 1978**

     "Disease Outbreaks Caused by Drinking Water," 19799

     To augment this information, persons in EPA's Office of Drink-
ing Water at Headquarters and in the drinking water sections of each
of the 10 Federal Regions were contacted to obtain information on
current trends.  Although these sources provide an adequate assess-
ment of drinking water problems, they generally do not provide ade-
quate information on contaminant trends.  This is primarily because
long-term data are not available, since most of the contaminants have
only recently been identified as being of concern in drinking water.

7.1.3  Organization of Chapter

     The remainder of this chapter provides a brief overview of the
current condition and future outlook of drinking water resources in
the United States.  The next section describes sources of drinking
water supplies, including surface and ground water.  Section 7.3
provides an overview of the major drinking water contaminants.  In
the overview, the contaminants and their sources are identified, and
generalized trends in research or regulatory programs which deal with
the contaminants are presented.  The discussion of implications
identifies areas for future emphasis at national and regional levels.
^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA Operating Year Guidance,
 Operating Year Guidance for Fiscal Year 1981, Washington, D.C.,
 February 1980, pp. 16-18.
^U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources;  1975-
 2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. I, Summary Report, U.S.
 Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1978, pp. 7-15.
"National Demonstration Water Project, Drinking Water Supplies in
 Rural America, Washington, D.C., 1978.
^Craun, G.F., "Disease Outbreaks Caused by Drinking Water," Journal
 Water Pollution Federation, Vol. 51, 1979, pp. 1751-1760.
                                  445

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     Section 7.4 provides an overview of domestic drinking water sup-
ply systems.  The overview includes a discussion of centralized
treatment systems as well as non-centralized rural systems serving
individual households.  The chapter concludes with a short regional
analysis of the status of the EPA drinking water programs.

7.2  SOURCES OF DRINKING WATER

     The sources of drinking water in the United States are primarily
surface water from streams, lakes, and rivers, and ground water from
underground aquifers.  Systems for delivering this water range from
simple wells, supplying the needs of a single household, to major
municipal water treatment and distribution systems, supplying large
metropolitan areas.  The following paragraphs briefly discuss these
drinking water sources of water.  Chapter 8 provides related informa-
tion on water resources more generally.

7.2.1  Surface Water Supply

     Surface water is generally available for use as a freshwater
drinking source from the time it strikes the ground as precipitation
until it is discharged into the saline waters of an estuary or a de-
sert "sink".  It can be used as a source of drinking water only so
long as it is not excessively contaminated by human activity or nat-
ural pollutants and can be economically treated.  Approximately half
the drinking water used in the United States comes from surface water
sources, and an additional 15 percent from ground water sources that
are closely dependent on surface water streamflow for replenish-
ment.10

     An assessment of the total surface supply of fresh water is pre-
sented in Table 7-2.  The table lists the 21 Water Resource Regions
of the Water Resources Council (see Figure 8-1, Chapter 8) and iden-
tifies the total available supply of surface water for all uses.  It
should be noted that these Water Resource Regions do not coincide
with the EPA Federal Regions.

     The quantity of available surface water varies both by season
and by geographic region.  These variations are driven by the rate
of precipitation during a given year.  For example, in 1961 and 1966,
annual precipitation in the northeastern United States was extremely
10U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources;
   1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. I, Summary
  Report, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C., 1978,
  pp. 7-15.

                                  446

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                              TABLE  7-2
                  U.S. FRESHWATER SURFACE SUPPLIES,
                BY WATER RESOURCE REGIONS OF THE WATER
                     RESOURCES COUNCIL,  1975a>b
  Region Number and Name
Drainage Areas
(Thousands of
    Acres)
 Mean Streamflow
    Discharge
(Billion Gallons
	Per Day)
 1.  New England
 2.  Mid-Atlantic
 3.  South Atlantic-Gulf
 4.  Great Lakes
 5.  Oh io
 6.  Tennessee
 7.  Upper Mississippi
 8.  Lower Mississippi
 9.  Souris-Red-Rainy
10.  Missouri
11.  Arkansas-White-Red
12.  Texas-Gulf
13.  Rio Grande
14.  Upper Colorado
15.  Lower Colorado
16.  Great Basin
17.  Pacific Northwest
18.  California
19.  Alaska
20.  Hawaii
21.  Caribbean

Conterminous United States0
  (No. 1-18)

   Total, all regions0
    44,162
    66,139
   173,630
    85,871
   102,436
    27,290
   115,631
    67,292
    35,021
   327,133
   156,163
   113,726
    87,764
    65,848
    99,103
    89,181
   173,366
   105,497
   375,304
     4,126
     2,283

 1,935,253
 2,316,966
      78.2
      79.2
     228.0
      72.7
     178.Od
      40.8d
     121.Od
     433.0
       6.0
      44. ld
      62.6d
      28.3
       1.2
      10.Od
       1.6
       2.6
     255.3
      47.4
     905.0
       6.7
       4.9
   1,233.4
   2,150.0
Preliminary data.
bSee Figure 8-1, Chapter 8, for a map of the Water Resource Regions.
cTotal discharge includes only those regions that are outflow
 points, that is, flowing out of the country, and does not include
 interior regions.
"Not included in total because these are inflows to other regions.
Sources:
          Drainage Area:  U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's
          Water Resources;  1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment,
          Statistical Appendix, Volume A-l, Table 4, draft, April 1978.
          Streamflow:  U.S. Water Resources Council, unpublished
          preliminary data.
                                     447

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low.  This resulted in a drought,  which adversely affected drinking
water supplies in the Northeast Corridor.   The effects  of drought are
particularly severe in those areas of the  country which do not have
adequate storage and distribution  systems.

7.2.2  Ground Water Supply

     Between 1900 and 1975,  the use of ground water as  a source of
drinking water increased in the United States at an annual rate of
approximately 3.8 percent.  In 1975, ground water withdrawals repre-
sented over 40 percent of total freshwater  withdrawal.H  A signifi-
cant portion of this increase can  be attributed to the  use of ground
water for irrigation of croplands.  It is  estimated that more than
82 billion gallons per day (bgd) are presently withdrawn (Table 7-3) .
Of this amount, approximately 57 bgd are used for cropland irrigation
purposes.  This large withdrawal has resulted in conflicts between
irrigation and drinking water supplies in a number of western states
that depend on ground water as their major  drinking water source.

     Much more ground water than surface water is available in the
United States.  Most of the ground water withdrawn is continually
replaced by runoff and seepage from rain and snow, but  approximately
21 mgd are "mined", that is, withdrawn without replenishment (see
Table 7-3).  During periods of drought, streamflow is often supplied
entirely by ground water sources.   With the heavy demands place on
ground water sources in some portions of the United States, the prob-
lems created by extensive ground water mining can be severe.

7.3  MAJOR DRINKING WATER CONTAMINANTS

     Demands for potable drinking water sources have closely paral-
leled increases in population and  development.  Since the turn of the
century, improvements in drinking water quality have been dramatic,
largely because of increased awareness of  the sources of drinking
water contaminants and development of technologies for improving
drinking water treatment systems.

     Two major categories of drinking water contaminants are biolo-
gical contaminants, which include pathogenic bacteria and viruses,
and chemical contaminants, which include inorganic chemicals such as
nitrates, phosphates, or trace metals, and organic chemicals such as
chlorinated hydrocarbons or oil.
  U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources:
  1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. I, Summary
  Report, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1978,
  pp. 7-15.

                                 448

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                              TABLE 7-3
                      U.S. GROUNDWATER SUPPLIES,
                   BY WATER RESOURCE REGIONS OF THE
                   WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL, 1975a
                                   Groundwater Withdrawals
                                                Withdrawals in Excess
                           Total Withdrawals        of Recharge
                             (in million        (in million gallons
  Region Number and Name   gallons per day)     	per day)	
 1.  New England                   635                   0
 2.  Mid-Atlantic                2,661                  32
 3.  South Atlantic-Gulf         5,449                 339
 4.  Great Lakes                 1,215                  27
 5.  Ohio                        1,843                   0
 6.  Tennessee                     271                   0
 7.  Upper Mississippi           2,366                   0
 8.  Lower Mississippi           4,883                 412
 9.  Souris-Red-Rainy               86                   0
10.  Missouri                   10,407               2,557
11.  Arkansas-White-Red          8,846               5,457
12.  Texas-Gulf                  7,222               5,578
13.  Rio Grande                  2,335                 657
14.  Upper Colorado                126                   0
15.  Lower Colorado              5,008               2,415
16.  Great Basin                 1,424                 591
17.  Pacific Northwest           7,348                 627
18.  California                 19,160               2,197
19.  Alaska                         44                   0
20.  Hawaii                        790                   0
21.  Caribbean                     254                  13

   Total United States, all     82,328              20,902
     regions


aSee Figure 8-1, Chapter 8, for a map of the Water Resource Regions.

Source: Adapted from U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water
        Resources;  1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment.
        Volume I, Summary Report, U.S. Government Printing Office,
        Washington, B.C., December 1978, p. 18.
                                  449

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     The sources of these contaminants are varied.  Some, such as
nitrates, may naturally occur in high concentrations.  However, most
of them are usually introduced into drinking water supplies as a
result of human activities.  Landfills, liquid storage lagoons, and
deep-well injection sites all represent potential sources of con-
taminants to ground water supplies.  Point source discharges of indus-
trial and municipal wastes and overland runoff from fertilized crop-
lands are additional sources of surface drinking water contaminants.
Both surface and ground waters can also be affected by spills of liq-
uid or solid industrial materials.

     The problems of drinking water contaminants, including the
sources, trends, and implications of these contaminants in drinking
water supplies are briefly discussed below.  Contaminants are dis-
cussed in three groups:  biological and inorganic, organic (including
chlorinated hydrocarbons), and hazardous wastes (including trace met-
als and some contaminants from the first two groups).  Trends in the
discharge of industrial and municipal waste pollutants were discussed
in detail in Chapter 6.

7.3.1  Biological and Inorganic Contaminants

     Early drinking water treatment systems were designed to reduce
biological contaminants in surface supplies of drinking water.  Bio-
logical contaminants, which include pathogenic bacteria and viruses,
entered these supplies when raw or partially treated sewage was
dumped into surface waters.  In these early systems, treatment  con-
sisted mainly of disinfection or filtration.  As laboratory testing
methods improved, inorganic pollutants such as nitrates and lead were
identified and measured in drinking water supplies.   Low concentra-
tions of most of these inorganic materials occur naturally in both
surface and groundwater; it is only when they are introduced in
quantities large enough to cause harmful effects that they become con-
taminants.

     The Safe Drinking Water Act required EPA to develop a list of
drinking water regulations for water supply systems.^  xhe list
includes a number of biological and inorganic constituents which have
the potential for contaminating drinking water, and recommends maxi-
mum limits for the concentrations of these constituents.

     Biological and inorganic contaminant problems have been identi-
fied in most of the 10 Federal Regions.  Surface water supplies
frequently have bacterial concentrations and turbidity levels that
exceed the standards.  These often are the result of non-point as
12The Safe drinking Water Act of 1974 (PL 93-523), and as amended
  in 1977 (PL 95-190).

                                  450

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well as point sources of contaminants.  It has been suggested that
these high concentrations of bacteria are the result of poor water
treatment plant operating procedures.

     The pattern for inorganic contamination of drinking water sup-
plies is rather different.  Saltwater encroachment in ground water
supplies has been noted in many coastal regions, especially in the
eastern and Gulf areas.  It has also occurred in the west where
freshwater aquifers overlap with saline aquifers.  In regions having
extensive agricultural, increased levels of nitrates in ground water
supplies have been noted as well as in areas that depend on septic
tanks as a primary means of wastewater disposal.  Finally, naturally
occurring high concentrations of nitrate, fluoride, barium, and
radium have been noted in various Federal Regions.  The radium noted
in the Southeast Region (Federal Region IV) has been attributed to
locally occurring phosphate deposits.

     Trends

     The continued identification of naturally occurring inorganic
contaminants in many drinking water supplies suggests the need for
additional research to understand the potential health effects of
increased exposure to these contaminants.  As noted in EPA's draft,
Drinking Water Research Strategy, 1979-1981 ;1^

     Toxicological or associated epidemiological studies or both
     should be conducted under a strong quality assurance program for
     inorganics presently regulated (Pb, Ba, F, As, NC>3, and Se)
     and for compounds (U, Rn, Th, asbestos, Mo, Sb, Li, Sn, Na) that
     may be regulated in the future.

     The microbiological contaminant problems identified in many of
the small drinking water systems supply waters suggest the need for
additional research to develop economical small disinfection proces-
ses.   In addition, as the primary drinking water regulations are
revised, it is anticipated that the quality of drinking water sup-
plies will be lower than at present.  This means that additional
information on the risks of infectious disease and the prevalence of
specific microorganisms is needed, and it places further demands on
the technical assistance and laboratory aspects of the current drink-
ing water program. -^
13U.S. EPA, Drinking Water Research Strategy, 1979-1981, Office of
  Research and Development/Office of Water and Waste Management, U.S.
  EPA, Washington, D.C.,  1979,  pp.  36-39.
14Ibid.  pp. 57-59.

                                 451

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     A recent survey of the raw water supply quality of 138 municipal
drinking water systems indicated that a significant percentage of
these source waters were violating EPA-recommended limits for selec-
ted biological and inorganic contaminants.  The findings of this
study are presented in Table 7-4.   The data indicate that about 20
percent of the 138 source waters exceeded the recommended limits for
bacterial concentration, 35 percent exceeded the recommended limits
for manganese, 23 percent for cadmium, and 16 percent for iron.

     Implications

     While the survey data suggest that most municipal drinking water
systems are in compliance with Federal recommendations, information
on contaminant problems within the 10 Federal Regions indicates that
scattered problems still exist in the control of biological and
inorganic contaminants.  The affected regions have recognized these
problems and are placing more emphasis on identifying and implement-
ing solutions. -*

     A problem closely related to inorganic contaminants in drinking
water is the relationship of the hardness of drinking water to the
occurrence of heart disease.  Results of recent studies have shown a
strong correlation between increased incidence of heart disease and
geographic areas of the country which use either naturally occurring
or treated "soft" drinking water.1°  Although these studies indi-
cate a correlation, continued research is needed to corroborate these
research findings with clinical and epidemiological investigations.
Figures 7-1 and 7-2 are mapped overviews of the occurrence of water
softness and incidence of cardiovascular diseases, nationwide.

     Waterborne biological and inorganic contaminants have been known
to cause various types of diseases ranging from simple infections to
chemical burns.  From 1971 to 1977, 192 outbreaks of waterborne
disease affecting 36,757 persons were reported in the United
States.1^  The majority of the outbreaks of disease occurred in
15Personal Communication, John Egan, Drinking Water Section, Region
  III and other EPA Regional Officials, Washington B.C., April 1980.
^Council on Environmental Quality, The Eighth Annual Report of the
  Council on Environmental Quality, U.S. Government Printing Office,
  Washington, D.C., 1977, pp. 256-266.
l^Craun, G.F., "Waterborne Disease, A Status Report Emphasizing
  Outbreaks in Groundwater Systems," Groundwater, Vol. 2, 1979, p.
  183.
                                 452

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                                 TABLE 7-4
               SELECTED WATER QUALITY CONSTITUENT VIOLATIONS IN
                138a MUNICIPAL SUPPLY SOURCES, 1955-1977

Water Quality
Constituent
Biological
Fecal coliforms
Total coliforms
Biochemical oxygen
demand
Dissolved oxygen^
Chemical6
Arsenic
Barium
Boron
Cadmium
Chloride
Chromium
Copper
Iron
Lead
Manganese
pH (lower limit)6
pH (upper limit)
Silver
Sulfate
Zinc

Recommended
Limit

2,000/100 mlb
20,000/100 mlb
5.0 mg/lc

5.0 mg/lc

0.05 mg/le
1.0 mg/1
0.750 mg/lc
0.01 mg/1
250 mg/1
0.05 mg/1
1.0 mg/1
0.3 mg/1
0.05 mg/1
0.05 mg/1
5
9
0.05 mg/lc
250 mg/1
5.0 mg/1
Number
of Means
Available3

66
43
64

91

63
38
40
61
127
41
68
45
60
40
110
110
50
111
62

Number in
Violation

16
9
5

1

4
0
0
14
1
0
1
7
6
14
1
3
0
1
0
Percentage
in
Violation

24
21
8

1

6
0
0
23
1
0
2
16
10
35
1
3
0
1
0
Constituent coverage varies considerably among monitoring stations.
"Recommended limits as defined by National Academy of Sciences, Water
 Quality Criteria, 1972, No. 5501-00520, Government Printing Office,
 Washington, D.C., 1972.
cArbitrary benchmark established by the Council on Environmental Quality.
"Values below these limits are considered in violation.
6Recommended limits as defined by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
 Quality Criteria for Water, EPA-44019-76-023, Washington, D.C., 1976.

Source:  UPGRADE, based on EPA1s STORET system data.
                                  453

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                                             WB ^ CD
                                              to  to  over
                                           75  150  300 300
Source: UPGRADE, based on U.S. Geological Survey's National Stream Quality Accounting Network data.

                                  FIGURE 7-1
                 U.S. WATER HARDNESS (MILLIGRAMS/LITER)
                               WATER YEAR 1975
Source: UPGRADE, based on U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare's National Center for Heatth Statistics data.
                                   FIGURE 7-2
          CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES, AGE-ADJUSTED MORTALITY
                            (MILLION POPULATION)
                                    1968-1972
                                         454

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non-municipal water systems (70 percent).  Approximately one-half of
these outbreaks and illnesses resulted from the use of either
untreated or improperly treated ground water.1°  The percentage of
outbreaks and the incidence of illness for seven major categories of
disease are presented in Table 7-5.

7.3.2  Organic Contaminants

     Organic contaminants include both naturally occurring substan-
ces such as tar and oil, and synthetic compounds such as trichloro-
ethylene or Kepone.  Advanced laboratory techniques have been used to
identify and quantify numerous synthetic organic compounds in drink-
ing water supply systems.  Many of these compounds were identified in
waters already treated by filtration and chlorination.l*

     Trends

     In 1974, a study of the water supplies of 80 cities identified
the presence of trace organics in the drinking water supplies at 113
locations.^0  The identified compounds were chiefly trihalometh-
anes.  By 1978, nearly 700 organic compounds had been identified in
U.S. drinking water supplies.   With the continued increase in the use
of organic chemical compounds in industry, homes, and agriculture, it
is anticipated that larger numbers of these organic contaminants will
find their way into the nation's drinking water supplies.  In 1979,
regulations for the control of trihalomethanes were promulgated by
EPA.

     Synthetic organic contaminants have been identified in both sur-
face water and ground water drinking supplies in most of the EPA
regions. Trichloroethylene has been the most commonly identified
contaminant in this category,  but contamination from Kepone in James
River at Hopewell, Virginia, has probably received the greatest pub-
lic attention.   Another compound identified in agricultural areas has
been dibromochloropropane (DBCP), a pesticide.
         G.F., "Disease Outbreaks Caused by Drinking Water,"
  Journal Water Pollution Federation, Vol. 51, 1979, pp. 1751-1760.
^Council on Environmental Quality, The Eighth Annual Report of the
  Council on Environmental Quality, U.S. Government Printing Office,
  Washington, D.C., 1977, pp. 256-266.
20Ibid.
                                  455

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                              TABLE 7-5
              ETIOLOGY OF WATERBORNE DISEASE OUTBREAKS
                   IN THE UNITED STATES, 1971-1977
     	Disease	          Outbreaks (Percent)

     Acute gastrointestinal illness              57

     Chemical poisoning                          12

     Giardiasis                                  10

     Shigellosis                                  9

     Hepatitis A                                  8

     Salmonellosis                                2

     Typhoid                                      2

     Enterotoxigenic E. coli                     <1
                                                100
Source:  Adapted from Craun, G.F.  "Disease Outbreaks Caused by
         Drinking Water," Journal Water Pollution Control Federation,
         Vol. 51, June 19.79, pp. 1751-1760.
                                  456

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     In some regions, concentrations of synthetic organics have been
high enough to warrant closing of small drinking water systems.  Dis-
cussions with persons in EPA Regional Offices suggest a number of
sources of these synthetic organic contaminants.  While many of these
are related to individual spills or waste disposal surface  impound-
ments, many may also be attributed to the leaching of improperly dis-
posed cleaning solvents in landfills or septic systems.

     Implications

     Recent studies have suggested that many of these organic com-
pounds, particularly synthetics, are health concerns.21  Because of
this potential for detrimental health effects, additional studies are
needed to identify the sources of the contaminants, their occurrence
in drinking water supplies, and their effects on public health.  To
meet these needs, EPA has implemented a number of projects at both
the Federal and state levels.  One such program is being used to
identify the sources of these organic pollutants, as well as inor-
ganic contaminants.  This is the Surface Impoundment Assessment
Program described earlier.  The first phase of the SIA Program is
currently under way in most states.  This phase is designed to locate
surface impoundments of waste materials.  At present, approximately
173,000 such impoundments have been identified.

     A problem receiving considerable attention in the past few years
is the potential for the formation of chlorinated hydrocarbons when
chlorine is used as the primary disinfectant in water treatment.
Studies have shown that many chlorinated hydrocarbons are carcino-
genic or otherwise hazardous to public health.  While it is important
to limit human contact with these potential carcinogens, it is
equally important to protect the public health from waterborne bac-
teria and viruses.  Two methods are being used to resolve this con-
flict.  First, studies are being conducted to identify the formation
processes for these chlorinated hydrocarbons and their potential
effects.  And second, drinking water treatment technologies utilizing
other methods of primary disinfection, such as ozonation, are being
developed.

7.3.3  Hazardous Wastes

     Hazardous wastes include inorganic and organic waste materials
that have been identified as hazards to health or the environment.
These materials are discussed in more detail in Chapter 10, "Solid
2lCraun, G.F., "Disease Outbreaks Caused by Drinking Water,"
  Journal Water Pollution Federation, Vol. 51, 1979, p. 1751-1760.
                                  457

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and Hazardous Wastes"; the following discussion identifies their
implications for drinking water quality.  Regulations are currently
being prepared for the following list of hazardous materials:22

     Acrylonitrile
     Arsenic
     Chloroform and chlorinated solvents
       Trichloroethylene
       Perchloroethylene
       Methylchloroform
     Chlorofluorocarbons
     Chromates
     Coke-oven emissions
     Dibromochloropropane
     Diethylstilbestrol
     Ethylene dibromide
     Ethylene oxide and residues
     Lead
     Mercury and mercury compounds
     Nitrosamines
     Ozone
     PBBs
     PCBs
     Sulfur dioxide
     Vinyl chloride; polyvinyl chloride

     These waste materials may enter surface water and ground water
drinking supplies either directly (through accidental spills or the
improper treating and disposal of industrial wastes); or indirectly
(through leaching of these materials from abandoned holding ponds,
lagoons, or landfills).  Ground water contaminants can also result
from underground migration of hazardous wastes that were disposed of
through subsurface injection techniques.

     Many of these hazardous wastes have been identified as carcino-
gens while others have been related to incidences of genetic muta-
tion and chemical poisonings.2^  Incidents of drinking water con-
tamination from hazardous wastes have been identified in almost all
states.  These problems are generally localized and affect a rela-
tively small segment of the population.
22U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Third Report of the TSCA
  Interagency Testing Committee to the Administrator, January 1979.
     . Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources:
   1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. I, Summary
  Report, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1978,
  p. 21.

                                  458

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     Trends

     With the development and application of advanced laboratory
techniques, EPA researchers have been able to identify and quantify
the occurrence of hazardous waste materials in a number of drinking
water supplies.  Localized occurrences of these materials have
recently been noted throughout the country.  Such incidents as the
discovery of hazardous materials at the Love Canal waste disposal
site near Niagara Falls, New York; the increased concentration of
phenols in the aquifer which supplies drinking water for the Minnea-
polis, Minnesota area (attributed to an abandoned creosote plant);
and the disposal of arsenic byproducts in a landfill in Iowa provide
good examples of the magnitude of the hazardous waste disposal prob-
lem.

     The total number of drinking water supplies adversely affected
by hazardous wastes is largely unknown.  This lack of information may
be due to limited monitoring capabilities at many of the small drink-
ing water treatment systems.  As additional surveys are undertaken,
the number of drinking water supplies found to be affected by hazard-
ous wastes is expected to increase.

     Implications

     Hazardous waste materials have been identified as a major prob-
lem area in most of the Federal Regions.  However, the greatest con-
cern about these wastes has been expressed in those regions that have
been heavily industrialized, particularly in the northeast.  To deal
effectively with the hazardous waste problem, EPA has recognized the
need to identify further the sources of these materials and their
impacts.  The SIA Program discussed in Sections 7.1.1 and 7.3.2 has
identified an estimated 173,000 surface impoundments to date.  How-
ever, further surveys and assessments of the impacts associated with
these waste disposal sites are needed.

     Preventive programs have also been instituted to protect ground
water sources from contamination by hazardous wastes.  The Safe
Drinking Water Act requires the Administrator of EPA to implement,
where needed, programs to control the subsurface injection of waste
materials for disposal.   Subsurface injection is used to dispose of
waste materials by placing them in underground rock formations that
do not contain useful ground water supplies and are isolated from
freshwater resources.  In response to the Act, EPA will soon promul-
gate regulations for the Underground Injection Control program as
previously discussed.
                                 459

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7.4  DOMESTIC WATER SUPPLY SYSTEMS

7.4.1  Domestic Water Supply, Use, and Consumption

     A Water Resources Council study suggests that the national aver-
age per capita rate of water use for domestic purposes is about 87
gallons per day (gpd).  The rate of consumption of this water, how-
ever, is lower than the rate of usage.^  The per capita rate of
water use averages 107 gpd for central water supply systems and about
66 gpd for non-central, private, rural systems."  Based primarily
on projected population increases, it is estimated that by the year
2000, domestic use of water will increase by about 8 billion gpd and
the consumption of domestic water will increase by 2 billion gpd
(Table 7-6).

7.4.2  Central Water Supply Systems

     Trends

     While local residents in some rural areas of the United States,
depend on individual wells as a source of drinking water, the ma-
jority of the population uses central water supply systems.  These
may either be large systems, supplying the needs of major cities, or
small community systems.  EPA has been estimated that these systems
currently provide the domestic water supply for 179 million people or
roughly 87 percent of the national population.26  xhe Water Re-
sources Council has projected that by the year 2000 approximately 242
million people, or about 90 percent of the population, will be served
by centralized systems.  This increase can be attributed to projec-
tions of greater population growth within the urban areas presently
served by central water systems, as well as to the continuing de-
velopment and extension of central water systems to rural areas.

     Water for central supply systems comes from either surface water
or ground water sources.  In general, large systems depend on surface
water supplies, whereas smaller systems often rely on ground water
supplies.  The systems generally provide some form of treatment prior
to distribution of the water.  This ranges from simple disinfection,
^Consumption refers to that portion of the total water used that
  is not returned to the source.
2^U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources;
  1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. I, Summary
  Report, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1978,
   Ep. 7-15.
   Ibid.
                                  460

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                              TABLE 7-6
              FRESHWATER WITHDRAWALS AND CONSUMPTION3
               (AVERAGE YEAR, MILLION GALLONS PER DAY)
   Water Resource
	Region	

New England
Mid-Atlantic
South Atlantic-Gulf
Great Lakes
Ohio
Tennessee
Upper Mississippi
Lower Mississippi
Souris-Red-Rainy
Missouri
Arkans as-Wh ite-Red
Texas-Gulf
Rio Grande
Upper Colorado
Lower Colorado
Great Basins
Pacific Northwest
California
Alaska
Hawaii
Caribbean
       Withdrawals
                               Consumption
 1975
         1985
         2000
 1,483    1,616
 4,
 2,
 1
 1
 ,604
 ,841
4,277
2,337
  353
  965
  805
   68
  246
  945
1,490
  327
   80
  498
  378
1,078
3,388
   91
  177
  355
5,
3,
 ,193
 ,433
4,705
2,597
  421
2,161
  880
   71
1,351
1,028
1,697
  352
   86
  612
  444
1,145
3,809
  114
  209
  428
 ,798
 ,994
4,255
5,283
2,914
  499
2,411
  960
   70
1,497
1,132
1,921
  380
   94
  772
  530
  ,264
  ,360
  147
  256
  514
                   1
                   4,
1975

  212
  796
  998
  589
  411
   70
  345
  343
   31
  331
  348
  507
  169
   28
  234
  148
  265
1,434
    7
   55
   58
1985

  231
  891
1,217
  642
  456
   81
  369
  370
   31
  352
  377
  570
  182
   31
  288
  170
  276
1,610
   10
   64
   72
                                           2000
 254
,010
,506
 703
 498
  90
 398
 398
  31
 381
 409
 659
 196
  33
 364
 201
 298
,839
  12
  78
  88
   Total
Regions  1-18

   Total
Regions  1-21
28,163   31,601   36,134   7,259   8,144   9,268
28,786   32,352   37,051   7,379   8,290   9,446
alncludes municipal,  rural,  domestic,  and  commercial  water  use.

Source:  U.S. Water  Resources  Council, The Nation's Water Resources;
         1975-2000,  Second National Water  Assessment, Vol.  I, Summary
         Report,  U.S.  Government Printing  Office,  Washington,D.C.,
         April  1978.
                                  461

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often with chlorine at smaller facilities, to complex filtration,
aeration, and disinfection processes at larger facilities.

     Most of the contaminant problems discussed in Section 7.3.1 (see
Table 7-4) have been known and treated for a number of years.  How-
ever, specific treatment processes for the more recently identified
pollutants, such as synthetic organics and hazardous waste materials,
may not always be readily available.  Further, many of the small,
older treatment facilities were not designed to provide the complex
and often costly level of treatment required for control of these
pollutants.

     To maintain the quality of the water distributed by the central
systems, EPA has prepared a series of regulations requiring the facil-
ity operators to monitor water quality at regular intervals.  These
regulations apply to central water supply systems that serve 25 or
more customers.  Samples taken for monitoring are to be analyzed at
laboratories that either have interim approval from EPA or are
certified by a state.  If the samples are found to contain criteria
contaminants in excess of the established levels, a public notice
describing the violation is to be prepared, and proper actions are to
be taken by the operator to correct the violation.  The large number
of small central water supply systems has made it difficult for EPA
to enforce these regulations, particularly the requirement for public
notification.  In addition, many laboratories associated with the
smaller systems are not equipped to identify or quantify synthetic
organics and other hazardous wastes within the small systems.

     Implications

     Because of the trend toward use of smaller central drinking
water treatment systems, particularly in rural areas, and the limited
treatment capabilities at many of these small systems, EPA is devel-
oping a series of alternative low-cost treatment technologies.  Much
of this development will be based on adapting large treatment facil-
ity technologies to the needs of small treatment systems.  The appli-
cations of these technologies could significantly raise the quality
of the nation's drinking water.

     In adapting these processes, EPA is attempting to keep the tech-
nology simple so that extensive operator training will not be
required.  The Agency is also attempting to keep the cost of these
technologies low, so that their application will not place too great
an economic burden on local communities.  Primary emphasis is being
placed on the development of treatment technologies to control
nitrates, arsenic, fluorides, and selenium.2'
  U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources:
  1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. I, Summary
  Report, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1978,
  pp. 7-15.
                                 462

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     To reduce potential health risks associated with the use of
chlorine as a disinfectant, EPA is directing research efforts to the
development of alternative disinfection processes.

7.4.3  Non-Central Rural Water Supply Systems

     Trends

     The Water Resources Council has estimated that 33 million
people, about 16 percent of the U.S. population currently obtain
their water supplies from non-central water supply systems. °  The
majority of these systems, which consist mainly of single-family
wells, are located in rural areas.  The Council has estimated that an
additional 4 million people in the United States are not served by a
piped water supply system but must carry their water.

     Projections indicate that the number of people using non-central
water supply systems will decrease to 26 million, roughly 10 percent
of the population, by the year 2000.^9  This will occur as a result
of both population, shifts from rural to urban areas and expansion
and development of centralized water systems in rural areas.

     Implications

     Since little information was available in 1974 on the quality,
quantity, and availability of rural drinking water supplies, the Safe
Drinking Water Act directed the EPA Administrator to enter into
agreements with public or private entities to conduct a survey of
rural drinking water.^0  This survey is to assess the condition of
the nation's rural drinking water.  A background document prepared by
the National Demonstration Water Project in 1978, drew the following
conclusions. *

     1.  A large segment of rural America lacks satisfactory domestic
         water supplies.
     2.  This problem occurs more frequently in sparsely populated
         areas.
       Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources;
  1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. I, Summary
  Report, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. , 1978,
  p. 21.
30The Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974 (PL 93-523), and as amended
  in 1977 (PL 95-190).
' ^National Demonstration Water Project, Drinking Water Supplies in
  Rural America, Washington, B.C., 1978.

                                  463

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     3.  The problem is more prevalent in non-farm rather than farm
         areas.
     4.  Satisfactory domestic water supplies are less prevalent in
         poorer areas.
     5.  The development of water supply systems in these areas often
         places an economic burden on the local population.

     This report also suggested that small, private water supply com-
panies be required to upgrade their systems as are public water util-
ities.  However, the small companies do not have access to public
funding for assistance.  If these companies were unable to meet the
requirements and were forced to close down, a gap in supply would be
created.

     An additional problem area noted by the National Demonstration
Water Project Report is the lack of coordination between both public
and private planning activities and funding and regulatory activities
at all levels of government.32  Funding and regulatory activities
also are not coordinated.  For example, while EPA is required to set
standards the Agency has neither authority nor grant funds to assist
with system and treatment improvements.

     A final problem is the lack of an adequate outreach program by
Federal, state, and local governments to give rural communities in-
formation on obtaining funds that have been set aside to assist with
rural water supply programs.

7.5  DRINKING WATER ISSUES

     The majority of the contaminant and supply problems discussed in
this chapter are long-term problems.  Their solutions are not simple
and will often require considerable resource commitments.  The amount
of emphasis placed on these problems, at both the regional and
national levels, appears to be a function of changes in public per-
ception and awareness of the problems.  The following comments pre-
sent a brief overview of the major drinking water problems, issues,
and trends as perceived by EPA at the national and regional levels.

7.5.1  National Office of Drinking Water

     During 1979, the national emphasis has generally been centered
on programs related to the control of organic pollutants.  Treatment
plant technologies and quality assurance of analytical methods are
being given high priority by EPA.  Other programs include dealing
with problems related to health effects, development of better analy-
tical methods, and groundwater research.
-^National Demonstration Water Project, Drinking Water Supplies in
  Rural America, Washington, D.C., 1978.

                                 464

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     All ten Federal Regions are faced with the problem of the com-
pliance of small community drinking water systems with the drinking
water standards.  EPA is starting a national effort to improve the
drinking water quality of these small systems.  This is to be a
coordinated effort involving the Federal, state, and local govern-
ments through scientific research and development, technical assist-
ance, enforcement actions and educational programs.

7.5.2  Regional

     New England Region (Federal Region I)

     Approximately 80 to 85 percent of the drinking water systems in
Federal Region I obtain their water supply from groundwater sources.
Contamination of these groundwater systems by synthetic organics,
particularly trichloroethylene, has been identified as a major con-
cern.  This contaminant has caused a number of drinking water supply
systems to be closed.  It has been suggested that the probable source
of the trichloroethylene is the disposal of cleaning fluids in septic
systems.  Additional problems of lesser concern include bacterial and
turbidity contamination of surface water supplies.  Saltwater en-
croachment has been noted in coastal areas, particularly Cape Cod.
It is expected that future emphasis in the Region will be on dealing
with synthetic organic pollutants and hazardous wastes.  Alternative
treatment technologies for dealing with the bacteria and turbidity
problems, particularly in small systems, will also be explored.

     The corrosive actions of certain natural waters on the pipes
used for distribution are also a problem specific to Federal Region
I.  Contaminants leached by this action have included lead, cadmium
and asbestos.

     New York-New Jersey Region (Federal Region II)

     Within Federal Region II, approximately 40 to 50 percent of the
community drinking water systems utilize ground water as a source of
supply.  One sole source aquifer has been designated in the Region.
The Surface Impoundment Assessment program has identified numerous
sites in the heavily industrialized areas of New York and New Jersey.
     Hazardous wastes have been identified as a major concern in the
Region.  Synthetic organics, entering groundwater sources from the
leaching of chemical solvents disposed of in cesspools and septic
tanks, have been noted.  Turbidity in surface water supply systems
and saltwater encroachment in coastal areas have also been noted.
                                 465

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     Future emphasis in the Region is expected to include efforts to
protect groundwater sources through the development of state stra-
tegies for dealing with synthetic organics.  It is anticipated that
additional technical assistance will be provided to the states to
improve the operation of public water supply systems.

     The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are also included in Fede-
ral Region II.  While these islands do not have major drinking water
quality problems, traditional problems such as bacterial and turbid-
ity contamination have been noted in some water supply systems.

     Middle Atlantic Region (Federal Region III)

     Major contaminant problems in Federal Region III include synthe-
tic organic compounds identified in both ground and surface waters.
The sources of these contaminants include abandoned landfills, acci-
dental spills, and septic tanks.  One synthetic organic problem, tri-
chloroethylene, found in the drinking water of Smyrna, Delaware, is
being corrected through aeration of the water prior to distribution.
Areas of future emphasis in the Region include providing additional
technical assistance to state and local governments in upgrading
treatment facilities, providing assistance in the preparation of
underground injection control programs, and increasing public aware-
ness of drinking water programs.

     Federal Region III is currently implementing the Safe Drinking
Water Act in the State of Pennsylvania.  The state has indicated a
desire to take over this program by 1982 and is currently investigat-
ing mechanisms to do so.

     Southeast Region (Federal Region IV)

     Within Federal Region IV, 92 percent of community drinking water
systems use ground water as a source of supply.  This source however,
supplies only 50 percent of the population.  This is a result of the
use of surface water supplies in the metropolitan areas.

     Drinking water quality in the Region has been good in past
years.  However, with increasing development, water quality problems
may arise; increasing numbers of synthetic organic contaminants have
been identified in drinking water supplies which had been considered
pure.  The sources of these synthetic organic compounds include in-
dustrial dumpsites, landfills, and possibly, injection wells.  Other
quality problems include high concentrations of naturally occurring
radium from phosphate deposits, fluoride, barium, and increased
levels of nitrate in agricultural areas.
                                 466

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     Great Lakes Region (Federal Region V)

     About 50 percent of the population in Federal Region V receives
its drinking water from underground sources.  In general, the large
cities in the Region receive their supply from surface waters.  Ni-
trates, fluorides, and trace metals have been identified as major
concerns in the Region.  Synthetic organics, primarily trichloroethy-
lene, have also been identified in ground water.  Sources of these
contaminants include the leaching of cleaning solvents from septic
systems.  Phenols from an abandoned creosote factory near Minneapolis
have been identified in the proposed water supply for a new develop-
ment.  Benzene has also been noted in the drinking water at a manu-
facturing plant in Indiana; industrial dumping is suspected as the
source of the benzene.

     In Federal Region V, future emphasis will be placed on develop-
ing a stronger technical program to assist state and local govern-
ments in dealing with synthetic organic pollutants.

     South Central Region (Federal Region VI)

     Contaminant problems in Federal Region VI are mostly related to
traditional problems such as bacteria, fluorides, and nitrates.  Bac-
terial problems have occurred mainly as a result of poor operating
procedures at a few of the surface water treatment facilities.
Naturally occurring fluoride and nitrate contaminants have exceeded
recommended federal levels in portions of the Region.  Future areas
of emphasis in the South Central Region include assisting state and
local governments with development of monitoring capabilities and
treatment programs for dealing with synthetic organics.  The imple-
mentation of the Underground Injection Control program will have a
major impact in this Region because of the extensive oil and gas
related activities and their use of injection techniques for waste
disposal.  EPA will be assisting the states in the South Central
Region in the overall development of an injection control program and
particularly in helping them to prepare the required permitting
programs.

     Central Region (Federal Region VII)

     Contaminants in Federal Region VII at present include increased
levels of nitrates and selenium.  Synthetic organics have also been
identified in the Region.  Future emphasis in the Region will be on
providing technical assistance to state and local governments in
developing better programs for monitoring and treating synthetic
organics.
                                  467

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     Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII)

     Control of underground injection of waste materials is an impor-
tant issue in Federal Region VIII because of the practice of "solu-
tion mining" for the mining of uranium.  This involves the injection
of liquid materials into uranium ore deposits, dissolving the ores,
and removal through withdrawal of the liquids.

     Contaminant problems in this Region include traditional problems
of increased bacteria and nitrate levels.  Bacterial contaminants
appear to result from agricultural runoff, septic tank leachates, and
improperly treated surface water supplies.  Nitrate contamination has
been attributed to natural causes as well as to the leaching and run-
off of fertilizers.  High concentrations of naturally occurring fluo-
ride have been identified in areas of North Dakota and South Dakota.
In addition, some groundwaters in the region have been noted as
having naturally high levels of uranium.  Future emphasis in the Re-
gion will be on establishment of better monitoring programs and com-
pliance schedules for inorganic, biological, and organic pollutants.
Technical assistance will be provided to state and local governments
in preparing programs to improve their drinking water quality.

     West Region (Federal Region IX)

     Contamination problems in Federal Region IX include bacteria in
surface water supplies, nitrates (attributed to agricultural fertili-
zers), arsenic, and selenium in both ground and surface waters.
Salinity has also been noted in groundwater supplies in Arizona.
Synthetic organic contaminants have been reported in Arizona and
California.  These include dibromochloropropane, a pesticide which
has been found in drinking water supplies in the agricultural regions
of California.

     Future EPA emphasis in Federal Region IX will be directed toward
establishing programs to assist in the operation of small water
treatment systems.  In addition, EPA will concentrate its efforts in
studies of specific contaminants such as dibromochloropropane, copper
mine leachates, arsenic, and fluoride.  EPA is also implementing the
Safe Drinking Water Act in Indian Lands which are not controlled by
the state's programs.

     Northwest Region (Federal Region X)

     Turbidity is a major contaminant problem in Federal Region X,
because of the large number of unfiltered water supply systems.
Organic and synthetic organic contaminants do not appear to be
problems however, present monitoring techniques generally are not
                                 468

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capable of detecting these contaminants.  It is anticipated that
synthetic organics will not be an issue, since the majority of water-
sheds supplying the Northwest Region are pristine.

     Future emphasis in Federal Region X will be directed toward
completion of Underground Injection Control Programs and development
of better monitoring and compliance programs for small community
systems.
                                469

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                            CHAPTER 8
                        WATER RESOURCES
                       HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 8

o  Based on data assembled by the U.S.  Water Resources  Council  as
   reported in its Second National Water Assessment,  the  United
   States, when viewed nationally, has  ample supplies of  water.  How-
   ever, the uneven distribution of precipitation and competition  for
   limited water supplies is causing, and will  continue to  cause,
   severe water problems in some parts  of the nation.

o  The use of ground water has been increasing  gradually.   Substan-
   tial ground water overdraft is occurring  in  some parts of  the
   nation.  Severe water quality and contamination problems are men-
   acing some ground water systems.

o  Agriculture is the dominant water use for both withdrawals and
   consumption.  Improved irrigation efficiency could reduce  with-
   drawals greatly.

o  Especially in the west, energy development will compete  with other
   water uses.

o  A combination of high economic cost, technological uncertainty,
   and environmental considerations makes it unlikely that  the  total
   supply of water will increase substantially  in the short term.
   Included in this category are desalination,  weather  modification,
   and additional storage capacity.

8.1  INTRODUCTION

8.1.1  Problem Identification

     The effects of water resources planning and management policies
are pervasive.  Environment, food and fiber  production, energy,
regional economic development—even the U.S. international  balance of
trade—are all affected, either directly or  indirectly, by  water
resources management.

     Water resource issues have traditionally been treated  as
dichotomous—for example, water versus  land, water quality  versus
water quantity, surface water versus ground  water, point  versus non-
point sources of pollution, and water supply versus water demand.
These classifications have helped to guide and  structure  discussions
of water resource issues and problems,  but they also  have contributed
                                  471

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to misconceptions and misunderstandings.  Furthermore, the institu-
tions for managing water resources mirror these dichotomies and
therefore, water resource management is characterized by institu-
tional fragmentation and decentralization.   For example, within the
Federal government, 26 agencies in 10 executive departments, plus 10
independent agencies and commissions, participate in water resource
management.  Each has a restricted disciplinary focus and a limited
mission, often addressing narrow and specific aspects of the nation's
water resources system.

     As a result, there might be too much or too little management;
it might be exercised in the wrong place, at the wrong time, or in
the wrong way to serve the many demands.  These combined inadequa-
cies—plus such difficulties as water shortages, water pollution,
floods and degradation of ground water systems—largely constitute
"the water problem."

8.1.2  Legal Framework

     In the United States, complex, nonuniform bodies of Federal and
state water laws have evolved.  For example, in connection with ques-
tions of water quality, Federal laws have been superimposed on the
water laws of the 50 states.  In the area of water availability,
state laws prevail in general, eclipsed by the Federal government in
cases of Federal or Indian reserved rights.  Water rights and laws
reflect a situation marked by significant conflict and uncertainty.
Legal challenges abound and indicate that the validity of the exist-
ing legal framework remains in question.

     State Laws:  Surface Water

     Two major doctrines—prior appropriation and riparian water
rights—have been commonly adopted in the western and eastern states,
respectively.

     Prior Appropriation.  The Prior Appropriation doctrine, charac-
teristic of the western states, rests on the maxim "first in time,
^National Water Commission, Water Policies for the Future, U.S.
 Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C., 1973. Also, Zink,
 A.R., "Water Availability in Western United States," Synthetic
 Liquid Fuels Development;  Assessment of Critical Factors, Vol. II -
 Analysis, ERDA 78-129/2, U.S. Government Printing Office,
 Washington, D.C., 1976.  Also, Davis, P., Testimony Before the House
 Committee on Science and Technology on Ground Water Quality Research
 and Development, House Document No. 80, 1978.


                                  472

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first in right."  The first landowner to establish a right to divert
water is the last person to be cut off in time of shortage.  The
basic tenets of this system are that a water right can be acquired
only by diverting the water from the watercourse and applying it to
beneficial use; and that, in accordance with the date of acquisition,
an earlier acquired water right in excess of the need to satisfy
existing rights is viewed as unappropriated water available for
appropriation by diversion and application of the water to a benefi-
cial use.

     Historically, a beneficial use was defined as an application of
water which resulted in an economic gain to the appropriator, and
which involved actual physical control over the water by diversion or
retention.  More recently, the doctrine has been extended in some
states to recognize the importance of maintaining instream flows for
the protection of fish and other instream values, wildlife, recrea-
tion, and the enhancement of water quality.

     The process of appropriation can continue until all water in a
stream is subject to rights of use through withdrawals from that
stream.  An appropriation right is based on the physical appropria-
tion of water rather than on ownership of land abutting a stream;
hence, the water may usually be put to use anywhere, by anyone.

     Riparian Water Rights.  Riparian water rights, characteristic of
the eastern states, protect adjacent landowners from withdrawals or
uses that unreasonably diminish surface water quantity and quality.
Where diversions or uses have been unreasonable, either the parties
have been enjoined, or adversely affected riparian owners have been
compensated for interference with their rights.  The concern of
riparian law has been to protect private, rather than public rights
in lakes and streams.  Thus, under riparian law, each person whose
land abuts a watercourse has two potentially contradictory rights.
First, each riparian land owner has a right to natural flow—that is,
the right to have the water flow to the property in its natural quan-
tity and quality.  Second, each riparian land owner on the water-
course has a co-equal right to make reasonable use of that water.

     State Laws;  Ground Water

     Most ground water laws have been derived through case law in the
courts.  Many of these laws evolved before much was known about the
hydrology of ground water movement.  Legal concepts such as "absolute
ownership" have been described by one observer as "little more than a
formalized variant of the law of the jungle," whereby the landowner
on a hydrologically superior position, or the landowner with the
                                 473

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deepest well or biggest pump, will prevail over his neighbors.2
Other rules, such as the "Eastern Correlative Rights" rule for per-
colating ground water and the comparable "reasonable use" rule for
underground streams, emphasize the co-equality of every landowner and
therefore, allow unlimited numbers of users access to the ground
water supply.  Such problems as ground water mining and land subsi-
dence can result.

     Federal Laws

     Federal Reserved Water Rights.  When the U.S. Government ob-
tained the territories that are now the western states, it assumed
sovereign domain over all the land, mineral resources, and water.
The Federal reserved water doctrine provides that the United States
implicitly reserves water sufficient for use on Federal lands.3

     Indian Water Rights.  Indian water rights orginate under Federal
law, and thus exist independently of state laws.  In most cases,
these rights originated when an Indian reservation was created, and
they pertain only to lands within a reservation.  The legal princi-
ples governing Indian water rights and the reasons behind them were
established by the U.S. Supreme Court in 1908 in the "Winters Doc-
trine. "^  In the doctrine, the U.S. Supreme Court held that there
existed an implied reservation of rights to the use of waters that
rise on, traverse, or border on Indian land, with a priority dating
from the time of creation of the reservation.  Since Indian water
rights emanate from original Indian treaties with the United States,
the treaties take precedence over state law under the supremacy
clause of the U.S. Constitution.  Thus, Indian water rights are not
subject to control under state allocation systems.  Indian water
rights continue to be argued in U.S.  courts—neither Indians nor non-
Indians have a clear title.

     Environmental Regulation of Water Resources

     The environmental laws  and regulations which affect water were
identified and briefly described in Chapters 3 (Societal Trends), 6
(Water Pollutants), and 7 (Drinking Water).  Prominent among these
are the Clean Water Act (PL 95-217),  the Resource Conservation and
2Davis, P., Testimony Before the House Committee on Science and
 Technology on Ground Water Quality Research and Development, House
 Document No. 80, 1978.
3Hillhouse, R.A., "The Federal Reserved Water Doctrine—Application
 to the Problem of Water for Oil Shale Development," Land and Water
 Law Review. Vol. Ill, 1968.
^Winters v. United States, 207 U.S. 564, 1908.
                                 474

-------
Recovery Act (PL 94-580), and the Safe Drinking Water Act (PL 93-
523).  Under these and its other legislative mandates, EPA is charged
with:  (1) achieving and maintaining the physical, chemical, and bio-
logical integrity of ground and surface waters; (2) treating, con-
taining, and controlling toxic and hazardous materials in solid
waste; (3) protecting an adequate supply of high quality drinking
water; and (4) developing integrated Federal, state, and local envi-
ronmental management systems to minimize transfers of pollutants
between media and identify optimal ultimate disposal strategies.^

8.2  U.S. WATER RESOURCE TRENDS

8.2.1  Introduction

     The Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 directs the U.S. Water
Resources Council to "maintain a continuing study of the nation's
water and related land resources and to prepare periodic assessments
to determine the adequacy of these resources to meet present and
future water requirements.""  In 1968, the Council reported its ini-
tial findings.'7  Since then, the Council has expanded its data
bases and refined its methodologies in an effort to portray more
accurately major U.S. water supply and use trends.  The first product
of this recent effort is the summary volume of the Second National
Water Assessment, published by the Council in December 1978.

     The Second National Water Assessment reports data for 1975,
1985, and 2000.  Data reported for 1975 are not actual data; they
represent "assumed average conditions."  For this reason, 1975 data
appear in quotation marks throughout the rest of this chapter.  It
should also be noted that there are disagreements about some of the
data and assumptions used and projections made in the Second National
Water Assessment.  As the Council states, the information should be
viewed as "indicative."  The report is used here because it repre-
sents the single best available summary of water resource management
->U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Planning and Man-
 agement, EPA Agency Guidance for Fiscal Year 1980/81, Washington,
 D.C., April 1979, p. 16.
6Water Resources Planning Act of 1965 (PL 89-80).
?U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources, Sum-
 mary Report, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,
 1968.
^U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources;  1975-
 2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. I, Summary, Washington,
 D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, December 1978.
                                 475

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issues—issues which should be introduced in this Environmental
Outlook report.

8.2.2  Water Resource Regions

     The Water Resources Council has divided the nation into 21 water
resources regions for data collection and planning purposes (Figure
8-1).  In addition, these major regions are further subdivided into
106 subregions.  These regions are hydrologic areas consisting either
of the drainage area of a major river or the combined drainage of
several rivers.

8.2.3  The U.S. Water Budget

     According to the Second National Water Assessment, on the aver-
age, about 4,200 billion gallons per day (bgd) is precipitated over
the conterminous United States.  Of this, about 2,750 bgd is evapora-
ted or transpired.  The remaining 1,450 bgd accumulates in ground or
surface storage, flows to the oceans or across the nation's boundar-
ies, evaporates from reservoirs, or is consumed.  This figure con-
stitutes the maximum amount of water available for use in the
conterminous United States.  However, with existing surface storage
capacity and accounting for extremes in precipitation in 95 out of
100 years, 675 bgd is the amount of water available for use.  The
U.S. water budget is shown schematically in Figure 8-2.

8.2.4  Water Use

     According to the Second National Water Assessment, total water
withdrawals from surface and ground sources for use in the conter-
minous United States was about 393 bgd in "1975."  These estimates,
broken down by major water resources regions, are given in Table 8-1.
As the table indicates, of this amount, 254 bgd were from fresh sur-
face water sources, 81 bgd were from ground water sources, and 57 bgd
were from saline sources.

     Total freshwater withdrawals for all major offstream uses, in-
cluding Alaska, Hawaii, and the Caribbean, were about 339 bgd in
"1975."  Based on assumptions about increased conservation and effi-
ciency and improved technology, this total withdrawal is projected to
decline by 9 percent in 2000, to 306 bgd.  However, offstream water
consumption (107 bgd in "1975") is projected to increase 27 percent
by 2000, to 135 bgd.  This factor is important since water consumed
is not available for other downstream uses or as a source for
recharging aquifers.

     Comparative data on total freshwater withdrawals and consump-
tion for "1975," 1985, and 2000 are presented in Table 8-2 for the
major water resources regions.
                                 476

-------
Source:  U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water  Resources:   1975-2000,
         Second National Water Assessment. Vol.  I, Summary,  U.S.  Government
         Printing Office, Washington D.C., December 1978.  p.  5.

                                    FIGURE 8-1
                         WATER RESOURCES REGIONS
                        ATMOSPHERIC
                        MOISTURE-
                        40,000 bgd
    STREAMF1.0W TO
    PACIFIC
    OCEAN-
    300 bgd

     SUBSURFACE
     FLOW-
     25bgJ
                  /  '   / /S
                  /VV (_$C
EVAPORATION FROM WET .S
         2,750 bgd
                                                   STREAMFLOW TO
                                                    ANADA-6bgd

                                                          "''
           NETEVAPORATKJ:
     bgd (MEASURED)
STREAMFI.OW TO
ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND
GULF OF MEXICO-
920 bgd
                                                               SUBSURFACE FLOW-
                                                               75 bgd
               STEAMFLOW TO MEXICO-1.6 bgd V'
Source:  U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources;   1975-2000.
         Second National Water Assessment. Vol. I. Summary. U.S. Government
         Printing Office, Washington D.C., December 1978. pp. 30,31.
                                   FIGURE 8-2
                            THE U.S. WATER BUDGET
                                        477

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                          TABLE 8-1
     TOTAL  FRESH- AND  SALINE-WATER WITHDRAWALS, "1975"
                                        Withdrawls
                                 (in million gallons per day)

Water Resources
Region and No.
New England (1)
Mid-Atlantic (2)
South Atlantic-Gulf (3)
Great Lakes (4)
Ohio (5)
Tennessee (6)
Upper Mississippi (7)
Lower Mississippi (8)
Souris-Red-Rainy (9)
Missouri (10)
Arkansas-White-Red (11)
Texas-Gulf (12)
Rio Grande (13)
Upper Colorado (14)
Lower Colorado (15)
Great Basin (16)
Pacific Northwest (17)
California (18)
Total, Regions 1-18
Alaska (19)
Hawaii (20)
Caribbean (21)
Total, Regions 1-21


Surface
4,463
15,639
19,061
41,598
33,091
7,141
10,035
9,729
250
27,609
4,022
9,703
3,986
6,743
3,909
6,567
30,147
20,476
254,169
261
1,089
653
256,172
Source: U.S. Water Resources Council,
Second National
Freshwater

Ground
635
2,661
5,449
1,215
1,843
271
2,366
4,838
86
10,407
8,846
7,222
2,335
126
5,008
1,424
7,348
19,160
81,240
44
790
254
82,328
The Nation
Water Assessment, Vol. I


Total
5,098
18,300
24,510
42,813
34,934
7,412
12,401
14,567
336
38,016
12,868
16,925
6,321
6,869
8,917
7,991
37,495
39,636
335,409
305
1,879
907
338,500

Saline
Water
5,216
19,625
7,460
0
0
0
0
1,253
0
0
0
9,163
0
0
0
0
131
14,569
57,417
57
1,139
1,124
59,737
's Water Resources:
, Summary,


Total
10,314
37,925
31,970
42,813
34,934
7,412
12,401
15,820
336
38,016
12,868
26,088
6,321
6,869
8,917
7,991
37,626
54,205
392,826
362
3,018
2,031
398,237
3975-2000,
U.S. Government
Printing Office,  Washington D.C.,  December 1978.  p. 25.
                             478

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                            TABLE 8-2
TOTAL  FRESHWATER WITHDRAWALS AND CONSUMPTION -  "1975," 1985, 2000
                   (IN MILLION  GALLONS PER DAY)
Water Resources
Region and Number
New England (1)
Mid-Atlantic (2)
South Atlantic-Gulf (3)
Great Lakes (4)
Ohio (5)
Tennessee (6)
Upper Mississippi (7)
Lower Mississippi (8)
Souris-Red-Rainy (9)
Missouri (10)
Arkansas-White-Red (11)
Texas-Gulf (12)
Rio Grande (13)
Upper Colorado (14)
Lower Colorado (15)
Great Basin (16)
Pacific Northwest (17)
California (18)
Total, Regions 1-18
Alaska (19)
Hawaii (20)
Caribbean (21)
Total, Regions 1-21

"1975"
5,098
18,300
24,510
42,813
34,934
7,412
12,401
14,567
336
38,016
12,868
16,925
6,321
6,869
8,917
7,991
37,495
39,636
335,409
305
1,879
907
338,500
Source: U.S. Water Resources Council,
Withdrawals
1985
3,939
15,857
25,457
32,666
27,838
7,131
10,386
17,453
329
48,037
13,799
15,932
6,204
7,841
8,528
7,316
38,098
40,549
327,360
433
1,619
963
330,375
The Nation1
Second National Water Assessment, Vol. I,

2000
3,230
13,873
28,340
25,623
16,925
6,013
7,910
24,841
587
44,359
13,337
14,991
5,633
7,519
7,857
7,258
33,852
41,265
303,413
745
1,349
890
306,397

"1975
481
1,843
4,867
2,598
1,798
313
1,145
4,027
112
15,469
8,064
11,259
4,240
2,440
4,595
3,779
11,913
26,641
105,584
58
605
343
106,590
s Water Resources:
Summary ,
Consumption
1985
647
2,472
6,772
3,300
2,527
647
1,604
4,554
204
19,206
8,769
10,227
4,320
3,018
4,754
3,765
14,610
27,932
119,328
207
636
374
120,545
1975-2000,

2000
1,063
3,548
10,053
4,693
4,332
1,105
2,688
5,511
446
19,913
8,887
10,529
4,016
3,232
4,708
4,036
15,196
29,699
133,655
459
666
300
135,080

U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington D.C., December 1978. p. 48.

-------
     In terms of freshwater use, agriculture and steam electricity
generation account for most water withdrawals and consumption.  The
relative share of water withdrawals and consumption in these two sec-
tors is not expected to change significantly between "1975" and 2000.
This is shown in Table 8-3.

     On the consumption side, agricultural uses dominate due to the
high rate of evaporation related to irrigated agriculture.  According
to Second National Water Assessment projections, total consumption
for agricultural water use will increase between "1975" and 2000, but
the relative proportion used by agriculture will decrease because of
anticipated increases in water consumption due to growth in steam
electric generating and manufacturing activities.  These changes are
illustrated in Figure 8-3.
8.2.5  Functional Water Use Trends

     The major offstream water uses are classified by function:
domestic and commercial, manufacturing, agriculture, energy produc-
tion, and minerals production.  The following brief discussion of
these uses is based on the Second National Water Assessment.

     Domestic and Commercial

     In "1975," about 83 percent of the urban population obtained
water from central supply systems.  This is projected to increase to
90 percent in 2000.  There is little regional variation in water used
for domestic and commercial purposes.  In the conterminous United
States, freshwater withdrawals for domestic and commercial uses were
28 million gallons per day (mgd) in "1975."  This is projected to
increase to 36 mgd in 2000.  Consumption in this use category was 7
mgd in "1975," increasing to slightly more than 9 mgd in 2000.  Most
of the increases projected for this category of water use are related
to assumptions about anticipated population increases rather than
changes in patterns of use.

     Manufacturing

     For the manufacturing sector, the Second National Water Assess-
ment projects a sharp decline in water withdrawals, from about 51 mgd
in "1975" to a little over 19 mgd in 2000.  This is based on the
assumption that pollution control regulations will result in water
management changes that will significantly increase in-plant water
recycling.  However, total consumption is projected to increase from
nearly 6 mgd in "1975" to about 15 mgd in 2000.  This is largely
related to evaporation losses associated with higher recycling tem-
peratures .

                                 480

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                                                      TABLE 8-3
               TOTAL WITHDRAWALS AND CONSUMPTION, BY FUNCTIONAL USE, FOR THE 21 WATER RESOURCE REGIONS
                                                  "1975," 1985, 2000
                                             (IN MILLION GALLONS PER DAY)
                                                  Total Withdrawals
Total Consumption
00
Functional
Use
Freshwater:
Domestic:
Central (municipal)
Noncentral (rural)
Commercial
Manu f ac tur ing
Agriculture:
Irrigation
Livestock
Steam electric generation
Minerals industry
Public lands and others-^
Total freshwater

"1975"


21,164
2,092
5,530
51,222
158,743
1,912
88,916
7,055
1,866
338,500

1985


23,983
2,320
6,048
23,687
166,252
2,233
94,858
8,832
2,162
330,375

2000


27,918
2,400
6,732
19,669
153,846
2,551
79,492
11,328
2,461
306,397

"1975"


4,976
1,292
1,109
6,059
86,391
1,912
1,419
2,196
1,236
106,590

1985


5,665
1,408
1,216
8,903
92,820
2,233
4,062
2,777
1,461
120,545

2000


6,638
1,436
1,369
14,699
92,506
2,551
10,541
3,609
1,731
135,080
^Includes water for fish hatcheries and miscellaneous uses.
Source: U.S. Water Resources
S econd Na t iona 1 Wa ter
Council, The Nation's Water
Assessment , Vol .
T, Summary
Resources :
1975-2000,


, U.S. Governmen t
               Printing  Office, Washington D.C.,  December 1978. p. 29.

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   WITHDRAWALS

           DOMESTIC AND COMMERCIAL   liii'.iiiXI MANUFACTURING AND MINERALS
                                          PUBLIC LANDS AND OTHER
V////\ AGRICULTURE
    |      ] STEAM ELECTRIC GENERATION
               1975 PERCENTAGES
                                       2000 PERCENTAGES
    CONSUMPTION
              1975'.PERCENT AGE
                                            2000 PERCENTAGE
Source:
    U.S. Water Resources  Council, The Nation's  Water Resources;  1975-2000,
    Second National Water Asspssmpnt, Vol. I, Summary, U.S. Government
    Printing Office, Washington D.C., December  1978. p. 5.
                                 FIGURE 8-3
           DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL FRESHWATER WITHDRAWALS AND
                     CONSUMPTION BY FUNCTIONAL USE
                               1975 AND 2000
                                   482

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     Agriculture

     Water for irrigated agriculture represents the largest water use
both for withdrawals and consumption.  The Second National Water
Assessment projects a slight decline in withdrawals between "1975"
and 2000, from 157 mgd in "1975" to 153 mgd in 2000, due primarily to
use limitations as a result of ground water overdrafts in the South-
west and increased irrigation efficiency.  Agricultural water con-
sumption is projected to increase from about 86 mgd in "1975" to
nearly 97 mgd in 2000 due to increases in irrigated acreage.

     Energy Production

     According to the Second National Water Assessment, steam-powered
electricity generation accounted for 95 percent of all energy-
related, freshwater withdrawals in "1975."  Water withdrawals are
projected to increase between "1975" and 1985, from about 89 mgd to
94 mgd, but to decrease significantly by 2000, to 79 mgd, due to
expected advances in cooling technology.  However, water consumption
is projected to increase sharply, from about 1.4 mgd in "1975" to
nearly 11 mgd in 2000, largely as a result of greater evaporation
losses during recycling processes.

     Minerals Industry

     Both water withdrawals and consumption are projected to increase
in this economic sector.  The Second National Water Assessment pro-
jects that withdrawals will grow from about 7 mgd in "1975" to nearly
11 mgd in 2000.  Water consumption for the minerals industry is
expected to increase from slightly more than 2 mgd in "1975" to more
than 3 mgd in 2000.  These increases are based on projected growth in
the minerals industry and do not assume much improvement in either
water use efficiency or recycling/reuse.  While the percentage growth
rate of water withdrawals and consumption is projected to be high,
the mineral industry's share of national water consumption will
remain at about 2 to 3 percent.

8.2.6  Instream Water Use

     Instream-flow use refers to the "amount of water flowing through
a natural stream channel needed to sustain the instream values at an
acceptable level.""  These values include maintenance of fish and
^U.S. Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources;
 1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment,  Vol. I, Summary,
 Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, December 1978,
 p. 42.

                                 483

-------
wildlife populations, outdoor recreation, navigation, hydroelectric
generation, waste assimilation, conveyance to downstream points of
diversion, and ecosystem maintenance (estuaries, riparian vegetation,
flood-plain wetlands).  According to the Second National Water
Assessment, fish and wildlife use is the dominant instream-flow use
in all regions.  In terms of outdoor recreation, about 20.3 million
acres of surface water are currently accessible.  The Second National
Water Assessment projects a cumulative demand for 10 million addi-
tional acres in 1985, and another 13 million in 2000.  Currently,
hydroelectric generation supplies about 15 percent of the national
supply of electricity.  The Second National Water Assessment projects
an increase of about 6 percent by 2000.  While it is doubtful that
major hydroelectric facilities will be constructed during this peri-
od, recent developments in low-head flow generation and the rising
costs of other energy sources may renew interest in hydroelectric
generation.

     The Second National Water Assessment anticipates no major change
between "1975" and 2000 in the instream-flow used for navigation.
The nation's inland and intracoastal waterway network now consists of
more than 25,000 miles of navigable channels and canals.

     Issues surrounding identifying, quantifying, and managing the
conflicts between the various and sometimes competing instream-flow
use values will continue to intensify.  Not all instream uses can be
maximized simultaneously.  Increased recognition of the importance of
instream flow for water quality, definitions of "beneficial" use to
include water required for fish and wildlife, and growing demands to
preserve free flowing streams are certain to result in conflicts.

8.3  IMPLICATIONS

8.3.1  Overview

     The Second National Water Assessment concludes that "overall,
the nation's water supplies generally are sufficient to meet water
needs for all beneficial purposes."^  However, major water prob-
lems exist in nearly all portions of the country.  The Second
National Water Assessment identifies 10 serious water resource-
related problems:  inadequate surface water supply; overdraft of
ground water; pollution of surface water; pollution of ground water;
drinking water quality; flooding, erosion, and sedimentation; dredge
and fill; wet-soils drainage and wetlands; and degradation of bay,
estuary, and coastal waters.  Environmental problems associated with
     . Water Resources Council, The Nation's Water Resources;
  1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. I, Summary,
  Washington, B.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, December 1978,
  p. 53.
                                 484

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 the pollution of surface water and ground water supplies are dis-
 cussed at length in Chapter 6 of this report.  Drinking water prob-
 lems are analyzed  in Chapter 7.  The remainder of this section will
 discuss briefly those water problems identified in the Second
 National Water Assessment not discussed elsewhere in Environmental
 Outlook 1980.  In  addition, this section includes an analysis of the
 water demands of increased energy production based on SEAS-derived
 growth projections.

 8.3.2  Select Water Resource Issues

     Inadequate Surface Water Supply

     Most water resources regions now have, or are projected by the
 Second National Water Assessment to face, problems supplying surface
 water for all desired uses.  In general, instream flows are con-
 sidered inadequate in the southwest, the lower Colorado, and much of
 the High Plains Region extending from Texas to Nebraska.  Competing
 offstream uses and increased recognition of the importance of in-
 stream values will result in water shortages in many portions of the
 nation.  Decisions on what uses water will serve are among the most
 important we face.

     Overdraft of Ground Water

     Ground water overdraft is a severe problem in central
 California, south central Arizona, the Texas Gulf Coast, the lower
 Mississippi, the eastern portions of Wisconsin and Illinois, the east
 coast of North Carolina, and the High Plains Region.  Among the
 problems associated with ground water overdraft is that continuation
 of current trends will result in a sharp decline in irrigated agri-
 culture as the energy costs of pumping increase.

     Flooding

     Flooding continues to be a serious problem.  According to the
jaecond National Water Assessment, in 1975, 107 people died in floods
 and the estimated potential flood-related property damages was $3.4
 billion.  Second National Water Assessment projections for 2000 put
 this figure at $4.3 billion.

     Erosion and Sedimentation

     Erosion is a natural process that can be greatly accelerated by
 human activities.  The average for soil loss from agricultural ero-
 sion in "1975" was estimated by the Second National Water Assessment
 at 9 tons per acre, with losses of over 25 tons per acre in some
 areas.  The Second National Water Assessment considers erosion and
 sedimentation to be the most pervasive water-related problem in the
 United States.
                                 485

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     Dredge and Fill

     The deposition of sediment in harbors, navigable channels, and
reservoirs requires removal and disposal.  Perhaps the most signifi-
cant impact connected with dredging and disposal is its effect on
wetland ecosystems.

     Wet-Soils Drainage and Wetlands

     According to estimates used in the Second National Water Assess-
ment, there are approximately 74 million acres of wetlands in the
United States.  It has been estimated that, between 1955 and 1975,
about 6 million acres of wetlands were destroyed.  Given the roles
wetlands play and the desire to drain wetlands for other uses, care-
ful attention to assessing impacts will be required.

     Water for Energy

     Water is always needed for energy development—e.g., coal min-
ing, land reclamation, coal liquefaction and gasification, coal
slurry pipelines, oil shale conversion, fuel refining, and thermal
electric power generation.  In energy development planning, water
availability, especially near coal and oil shale deposits, must al-
ways be considered.  In addition, the priorities and trade-offs asso-
ciated with water and energy and preferences in standard of living
and quality of life must also be considered.

     The major impacts of accelerated development of oil shale and
coal will be increasing demands on scarce western water resources and
increased hazards of environmental damage to water resources and
aquatic life.  Problems will likely arise from mining, thermal dis-
charges, discharge of trace elements of toxic materials, and reduced
flows associated with greater consumptive use.  Moreover, oil, gas,
and ground water pumpage in coastal areas will increase problems of
saltwater intrusion and land subsidence.^

     Although steam electric generation and manufacturing water con-
sumption estimated for 1975 accounts for only a small fraction of the
national water consumption—just over 1 percent and almost 8 percent,
respectively—projected increases approaching 8 percent and 14 per-
cent, respectively (see Figure 8-3), for the year 2000, may have sig-
nificant implications at local and regional levels.
URaimes, Y.Y., Water for Energy Development;   1975-2000, Inter-
  nal Report Prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment, U.S.
  Congress, September 1977.

                                 486

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     Water consumed by producing synthetic  fuels  from coal, particu-
larly synthetic gas, is projected to  increase  from zero  in 1975  to
about 0.5 bgd in  the Low Growth Scenario, and  to  about 0.8 bgd in the
High Growth Scenario.l^  Although this  industry represents only
about 7 percent of the total  industrial water  consumption projected
in 2000 under High Growth assumptions and about 4 percent in  the Low
Growth Scenario,  it is anticipated  that this industry will situate
primarily in the  water-short  regions  west of the  Mississippi  and
parts of the South Central, Central,  and Mountain Regions (Federal
Regions VI, VII,  VIII), where the impacts of this consumption may be
significant.  On  the other hand, fewer  impacts from energy and manu-
facturing industries are expected in  the Middle Atlantic, Southeast,
Great Lakes, and  some parts of the  South Central  Regions (Federal
Regions III, IV,  V, and portions of VI), because  no increase  in water
consumption is projected beyond the current 3.3 bgd level.  The high-
est impact is expected in the Mountain  Region  (Federal Region VIII),
where the estimated 1975 water consumption  level  of 56 mgd is expec-
ted to increase to 446 mgd in the Low Growth Scenario and to  732 mgd
in the High Growth Scenario.

     The projected development of coal  and  oil shale is  expected to
have significant  regional and local impacts on the agricultural  sec-
tor.  Specifically, farm and  ranch  lands and their associated water
rights are being  sold to energy companies.  Because of the very  large
price differential between water for  irrigation and water for energy,
this pattern is expected to accelerate.  The corresponding economic
and social impacts and implications are likely to be of  significant
local and regional importance.

8.4  SUMMARY:  WATER CONSERVATION AND REUSE

8.4.1  Overview

     Overall, the nation does not face a water crisis.   But,  as de-
scribed in Section 8.3, nearly every  region faces some type of water
problem; some of  these problems exist now, and future ones are expec-
ted to be quite severe.  The Second National Water Assessment con-
cludes that, to avert a crisis, more  attention will have to be paid
to improving the  efficiency of current water uses and establishing
more equitable procedures for allocating water in areas where sup-
plies for all desired uses are unavailable.
1 9
i^SEAS assumptions used to project the various energy uses in the
  High Growth and Low Growth Scenarios are discussed in Appendixes A
  and B of this report.
                                  487

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     The Second National Water Assessment reviews a number of conser-
vation and augmentation strategies—improved irrigation,  weather mod-
ification, desalination, improved surface water management, and water
reuse.  Agricultural irrigation and water reuse are discussed here
because improved irrigation practices could contribute substantially
to water conservation and because water reuse technology  is being
tested by the Environmental Protection Agency.

8.4.2  Agricultural Irrigation

     Agricultural irrigation is the major freshwater user in the
United States, having accounted for an estimated 81 percent of total
U.S. water consumption in 1975.

     Of the water stored or diverted for irrigation, less than half
reaches the intended crops.  The U.S. Department of Agriculture esti-
mates that average off-farm loss is about 22 percent, and on-farm
loss (which includes some ditch losses) is about 37 percent, for a
total of 59 percent lost.  Some of the losses are ascribed to evapor-
ation and weeds, but in large measure, they result from unlined con-
veyance channels.  Of the 14,323 miles of canals operated by the
Bureau of Reclamation, 85 percent are unlined.  Of the 34,294 miles
of laterals, 68 percent are unlined.*^

     Although in some cases a large fraction of the lost  irrigation
water may be recovered in return flows or percolation to  useful aqui-
fers, in many others, it is permanently lost.  The Soil Conservation
Service estimates that a high-efficiency irrigation program can re-
duce present gross irrigation withdrawals of 174 bgd by 43 bgd, and
still provide for a 10 percent projected increase in the  irrigated
land area.

8.4.3  Water Reuse

     In view of increasing water consumption, the number  of reuse ap-
plications of water resources has been increasing continuously over
the last decade.  Stormwater can be routed to recharge basins to aug-
ment aquifer recharge.  Some ways of reusing treated wastewater are
for manufacturing, steam-powered electric generation, and irrigation;
for augmenting water supply, either by aquifer recharge or blending
in surface water reservoirs; and for creating a pressure  barrier to
protect freshwater aquifers from saltwater intrusion.
^Executive Office of the President, Office of Science and Technol-
  ogy Policy, Scientific and Technological Aspects of Water Resource
  Policy, Washington, D.C., January 19, 1978.
                                 488

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     Constraints on reusing wastewater are related to the intended
use and the costs associated with improving its quality.  Public
health and safety are also critical concerns in water reuse.  As new
reuse applications are developed, the impact on wastewater treatment
and sludge disposal will become significant. ^  Improved, higher
level treatment methods will be needed, not only for routine waste-
water constituents, but also for the removal of specific compounds.
          and Eddy, Inc., Wastewater Engineering Treatment,  Dis-
  posal, Reuse, Second Edition,  McGraw-Hill Book Company,  New York,
  1979, p. 8.
                                 489

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                            CHAPTER 9
                      MARINE POLLUTION
                       HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 9

o  The number of tanker-related oil spill incidents in U.S.  coastal
   waters can be expected to decline between 1980 and 2000.   However,
   because tanker sizes are increasing, individual spills may get
   larger, and the trend in total oil spill volume is unclear.

o  Offshore oil drilling is expected to increase.  Although  there has
   been no clear trend in associated spill volume in the last 8
   years, the increased activity alone may bring an increase in the
   annual volume of oil spilled.

o  Dumping sewage sludge in the ocean is expected to diminish rapidly
   after 1980 because of a ban mandated by the Marine Protection,
   Research and Sanctuaries Act, but dumping of dredged material is
   expected to increase slightly.

o  Several other concerns are:  municipal ocean outfalls from sewage
   treatment plants, industrial outfalls, entrance of toxic  chemicals
   into the marine ecosystem, and the effects of deep sea mining of
   minerals.

9.1  INTRODUCTION

9.1.1  Problem Identification

     This chapter provides information on trends and potential future
environmental problems related to marine pollution to those  engaged
in planning EPA's environmental research program and other interested
individuals, as discussed in the Introduction and Chapter One.

     Global oceanic effects are important, and effects nearer shore
are probably even more important.  Pollutants produced by human acti-
vity tend to have large impacts on coastal and estuarine environments
that are rich sources of marine productivity, and provide critical
aesthetic, commercial, and recreational resources.  They are heavily
impacted because of their proximity to human populations; more than
100 million Americans now live within 50 miles of the coast.

     In 1960 Rachel Carson gave the world a rather ominous warning
about the consequences of dumping radioactive wastes in the  ocean.
She said "It is a curious situation that the sea, from which life
first arose, should now be threatened by the activities of one form
                                 491

-------
of that life.  But the sea, though changed in a sinister way, will
continue to exist; the threat is rather to life itself."   Scienti-
fic data being developed then indicated that the effects of increased
levels of radiation in the ocean environment could be severe.  With
this data in mind, the Atomic Energy Commission placed a moratorium
on issuing new licenses for the disposal of radioactive wastes in the
marine environment in late 1960.  By 1963, dumping radioactive mater-
ials off U.S. coastal waters had been drastically curtailed; dumping
ceased in 1970.

     However, as dumping radioactive materials was phased out, dump-
ing non-radioactive wastes in the ocean became increasingly common.
Municipalities, faced with the need to dispose of large quantities of
sewage sludge and other waste materials, turned to ocean dumping for
a solution to their problem.  Industries confronted with increasing
volumes of chemical waste and the high cost of waste disposal,
regarded ocean dumping as an inexpensive alternative to costly land
disposal methods.

     At the same time, the increased reliance of the U.S. on foreign
oil was bringing millions of gallons of petroleum into our ports.
Increasing oil tanker traffic resulted in increased oil pollution
from accidents and standard shipping practices, such as tank cleaning
and deballasting.

     Until recently, many individuals incorrectly assumed that small
amounts of pollution in such a vast body of water as the ocean would
be relatively harmless.  The "drop in the bucket" concept dominated
U.S. public thinking until the late 1960s and early 1970s when com-
munities began finding waste materials washing up on shorelines,
harmful bacteria in waters off recreational beaches, and tainted
seafood in fishing areas.  Scientific data documenting the adverse
effects of wastes resulting from human activities on the marine
environment and the potential effects on humans, exposed the myth
that the ocean could absorb large quantities of pollutants with mini-
mal or no ecological effects.  One consequence of this discovery was
that provisions in various Federal legislative mandates began to ad-
dress more seriously the issue of marine pollution.

9.1.2  Regulatory Background

     The Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act (PL 92-532),
the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments (PL 92-500), the
Ports and Waterways Safety Act, and the Coastal Zone Management Act
^Carson, Rachel, The Sea Around Us, New York, Oxford University
 Press, rev. ed. 1961.

                                  492

-------
(PL 95-583), all of 1972, deal either exclusively or in part with the
marine protection issue.  More recently, the Clean Water Act of 1977
(PL 95-217), and the Ocean Pollution Research and Development and
Monitoring Planning Act and the Port and Tanker Safety Act (PL
95-474), both of 1978, expanded the Federal government's role in this
area.  Regulatory information is discussed further in each of the
following sections.

9.1.3  Data Sources and Quality

     Historical data are available for the last decade or so from
                      o
several annual reports  from the U.S. Coast Guard, the Council on
Environmental Quality, and the Environmental Protection Agency.
These reports are useful for analyzing U.S. trends.  Future projec-
tions are generally not available, so most discussion of future
trends is qualitative.  Although marine pollution has global dimen-
sions when the deep ocean is considered, the trends discussed here
deal with coastal waters, and, like most of this report, are
restricted almost entirely to the United States.

9.1.4  Organization of Chapter

     Historical trends in quantities of pollutants entering the ocean
show the positive effects of the various legislative efforts.  In
projecting future trends in marine pollution, the potential impacts
of the more recent legislative initiatives are taken into account.
The discussion focuses on the short- and long-term trends of major
sources of pollution in the marine environment:  accidental oil
spills and intentional dumping or discharges of waste materials.
Other important topics, such as impacts associated with power plants,
marine mineral resource extraction, and toxic chemical pollution,
will also be briefly discussed.

     The inadequate historical data base, as well as the probable
impact of increasing legislative interest in the oceans, render any
attempt to project the future a very risky activity.  The emphasis,
therefore, has been to identify the sources and general magnitude of
trends, rather than attempt precise numerical estimates.
^These include:  U.S. Coast Guard, Polluting Incidents In and
 Around U.S. Waters (annually since 1973); Council on Environmental
 Quality, Environmental Quality (annually since 1970); and U.S.
 Environmental Protection Agency, Annual Report by the U.S. Environ-
 mental Protection Agency on Administration of the Ocean Dumping Per-
 mit Program (annually since 1973).
                                 493

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9.2  OIL SPILLS

9.2.1  Environmental Effects

     The recent massive oil spill from the Ixtoc I off-shore well
blow-out in Campeche Bay, off the Mexican coast, and the Amoco Cadiz
supertanker spill off the northern coast of France, provided the
world with dramatic examples of some of the immediate environmental
effects of large-volume oil spills:  oily beaches, devastated fish-
eries, and black waves laden with petroleum.  Due to the ocean's
natural cleansing process, these more visible damages frequently are
temporary, although they sometimes involve tremendous economic hard-
ship and aesthetic displeasure.  Scientists believe that the more
subtle, long-term effects of an oil spill may be far more ecologi-
cally harmful.

     Much of the present research on oil spills concentrates on the
longer-term sublethal effects.  Low levels of petroleum and petroleum
products (at the parts per billion level) have been shown, to affect
plant and animal growth patterns, decrease rates of photosynthesis,
disrupt feeding and reproductive behavior, and seriously impair other
vital biological processes.  Investigations into the transport and
fate of petroleum hydrocarbons and the means by which fish and other
organisms metabolize low levels of these pollutants are continuing.

     For the past several years, researchers at the Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institution have studied a relatively small (175,000
gallon) oil spill near West Falmouth, Massachusetts.  This study,
considered to be the most rigorous and comprehensive investigation
ever made into a single spill event, showed that:  1)  there was
severe local mortality of the plants and animals of the intertidal
marsh and subtidal soft-bottom communities; 2)  impacted communities
required years for recovery; and 3)  the oil was persistent, espe-
cially in the marsh areas which served as a source of recontamination
by continuously oozing oil.  Years after the spill, traces of oil
were found in plants and animals within the spill area.  The communi-
ties were compromised by the persistent and shifting oil; sublethal
effects of chronic oil pollution were apparent for at least 7 years
after the spill.  There also was a loss of marsh grass; this reduces
the effectiveness of the marsh as a nursery area for marine organ-
isms, a runoff water purification system, and a land stabilization
mechanism.-'
%.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and
 Development, Decision Series;  A Small Oil Spill at West Falmouth,
 EPA-600/9-79-007, 1979, p. 25.
                                  494

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9.2.2  Regulatory Mandates

     Following the 1969 Santa Barbara offshore well blow-out,
Congress enacted the Water Quality Improvement Act of 1970 (PL 91-
224).  This Act included a section regulating the discharge of oil
into traditional navigable waters within three miles of the U.S.
coastline.

     Section 311 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, as
amended in 1972 (PL 92-500), specifies a three-part approach to the
control of oil spills:  response, prevention, and enforcement.  Regu-
lations promulgated under the authority of this Act require the pre-
paration of a Spill Prevention, Control, and Countermeasure (SPCC)
plan by the owner or operator of any facility that might spill oil
into U.S. waters.^  The Port and Tanker Safety Act of 1978 gives
the Secretary of Transportation authority to regulate all stages of
transporting oil by tanker.  The Coast Guard is adopting new interna-
tional tanker safety standards agreed upon by the Intergovernmental
Maritime Consultative Organization (IMCO) which became effective in
1979 for new ships, and will go into effect in 1981 through 1985 for
existing ships.^

     The Deepwater Port Act of 1974 (PL 93-627) contains provisions
to protect the environment from tanker and pipeline spills associated
with deep water ports off the U.S. coast.  Finally, the Outer Conti-
nental Shelf Lands Act (PL 93-627) gives the Secretary of Interior
authority to control the leasing of offshore oil and gas drilling
sites, and contains provisions for environmental protection.

     Another indication of Federal commitment in controlling marine
pollution is the draft legislation proposed by the Administration to
provide a system for responding to, assigning liability for, and
ensuring compensation for the release of oil and hazardous wastes
into the marine environment.  The proposed Oil, Hazardous Substances
and Hazardous Waste Response, Liability, and Compensation Act of
1979, more commonly known as the "Superfund" bill," is presently
being considered by several Congressional committees.  If enacted as
presently written, the law will establish a $1.6 billion fund to pay
^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Oil and Special Materials
 Division, Oil Spills and Spills of Hazardous Substances, Washington,
 D.C.:  Government Printing Office, March 1977, pp. 3-5.
^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality-1978, U.S.
 Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1979, pp. 366-367.
^Communication from the President of the United States to the 96th
 Congress, House Document No. 96-149, June 13, 1978.
                                 495

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 for  cleaning up both  terrestrial and aquatic oil and hazardous chemi-
 cal  spills.  It is  expected that "Superfund" will encourage more
 careful  handling  of oil and hazardous materials through provisions
 allowing for the  recovery of cleanup costs from those responsible for
 a  spill  or  dumping  incident.

 9.2.3  Trends  in  Oil  Spills

     For the past six years, spills of petroleum off U.S. coastal
 waters have averaged  approximately 11 million gallons annually (see
 Figure 9-1).   Major  vessel spills can easily boost annual totals.
 The  1976 Argo  Merchant spill of 7.5 million gallons off of Nantucket,
 Massachusetts, resulted in a yearly total of approximately 18 million
 gallons. The  Mexican off-shore well blow-out will have a dramatic
 effect on the  1979  totals (to be released by the U.S. Coast Guard in
 late 1980).
            20
         CO
         Zi
         s
         o
            0 L
JL
             1972
     if ESTIMATED TOTALS

      1974
            YEAR
1976
1978
Source:   U.S.  Coast  Guard,  Polluting  Incidents  In and Around U.S.
         Waters  (published  annually since 1973).
                              FIGURE 9-1
           VOLUME OF OIL SPILLED IN U.S. COASTAL WATERS
                              1972-1978
 ^U.S.  Coast Guard,  Polluting  Incidents  In and Around U.S. Waters,
  (annually, since 1973).
                                 496

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     Trends in Oil Spills from Tanker Ships

     U.S. Coast Guard figures on the annual tanker ship oil spill
incidents and volumes for the years 1975 to 1978 are shown in Table
9-1 below.
                              TABLE 9-1
                  TANKER SHIP OIL SPILLS, 1975-1978


                            1975    1976    1977    1978


Incidents                    643     577     590     726

Volume (million gallons)     1.8     8.9     0.2     0.3


 Source:  U.S. Coast Guard, Polluting Incidents In and Around U.S.
          Waters (published annually since 1975).
If the volume of imported oil stays relatively constant or decreases
slightly over the next 20 years, as the Department of Energy is pre-
dicting,  and if oil spill prevention regulations are expanded and
existing laws improved, a gradually decreasing trend in the number of
tanker ship oil spills would be anticipated.  It cannot be assumed,
however, that because oil spill incidents may decrease, the total an-
nual volume of those spills will decrease.  For example, as the num-
ber of supertankers increases, the number of large-volume tanker ship
spills could be expected to increase, keeping total spill volume
figures high.  Thus, the complexity of the various factors involved
and the lack of consistent trends in historical data, make the pre-
diction of future spill volumes exceedingly difficult.

     Trends in Oil Spills Related to Offshore Production

     The Department of Interior's U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is
responsible for the day-to-day inspection and monitoring of Outer
Continental Shelf (DCS) oil and gas operations.  The USGS has kept
records on spills associated with federally supervised drilling and
production activities since 1971.  Records of spills in the Gulf of
%.S. Department of Energy, Energy in Focus:  Basic Data,  DOE/OPA-
 0020, Washington, D.C., Government Printing Office, Jan.  1978,  p.
                                 497

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Mexico are especially comprehensive and are therefore most appropri-
ate for trend analysis.  In addition, the Gulf of Mexico has been the
most active offshore oil and gas production area in the world for the
past 30 years.  Since 1947, approximately 13,000 wells have been
drilled in federal waters, and almost 8,000 wells on 2,200 offshore
platforms were operating by the end of 1977.

     In its discussion of the difficulty in assessing offshore pro-
duction oil spills trends, the USGS states that:  "Oil spillage...
can readily be misunderstood or distorted."   Some of the problems
cited are interchanging statistical information from many different
sources; combining high and low estimates for spills of different
categories, such as drilling, production, and transportation, in a
statistically invalid way (the correct overall high estimate is not
as large as the sum of the individual high estimates); use of peak
annual production for a given oil field, rather than average produc-
tion over the life of the well; and inadequate consideration of
future technical innovation.  Finally, they point out that,

     The absence of universally recognized definitions for such
     terms as "major spill," "minor spill," and "blowout," allows
     considerable latitude in categorizing incidents.  One observer
     could justifiably say that there has only been 1 major pollution
     incident in the history of OCS operations, whereas another
     might, with equal validity, cite 30 incidents.1^

     Table 9-2 contains historical information on the number of
incidents and volume of offshore production-related oil spills on
federally leased land in the Gulf of Mexico.

                              TABLE 9-2
            OFFSHORE PRODUCTION-RELATED OIL SPILLS, GULF
            OF MEXICO OUTER CONTINENTAL SHELF, 1971-1978

               1971   1972   1973   1974   1975   1976   1977   1978

Incidents      1,256  1,161  1,175  1,137  1,128   951    868    876
Total Volume   116.7   49.6  970.0  982.3   41.0  219.9  53.8   72.2
(thousand gallons)

Source:U.S. Geological Survey, Oil Spills, 1971-1975, Gulf of
         Mexico Outer Continental Shelf, USGS Circular 741.  Data for
         1976-1978 obtained from Elmer P. Danenberger, USGS, Reston,
         Virginia.
 9U.S. Geological Survey, Oil Spills, 1971-1975, Gulf of Mexico
  Outer Continental Shelf, USGS Circular 741, Washington, D.C. ,
  Government Printing Office, 1976.

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     A gradually decreasing trend in incidents occurred between 1971
and 1978.  The trend in total volume is mixed; incidents and volumes
of spills do not generally correlate.  During 1972 and 1973, for
example, roughly the same number of spills occurred.  However, the
volume of oil spilled in 1973 was nearly 20 times the volume spilled
in 1972.

     The January 1969 oil production platform blow-out off Santa
Barbara, California, resulted in a 700jOOO gallon spill.  Ten years
later, the disastrous Mexican offshore Iblow-out released in excess of
100 million gallons in the worst oil spill in history.

     What these occurrences and the Gulf of Mexico data indicate is
that offshore drilling is a very hazardous undertaking.  Despite
extensive safety precautions, major spills have and will continue to
occur.  Since less than 5 percent of the potentially productive area
of the continental shelf has been leased to date,^ it is likely
that drilling activities will increase.  Fortunately, major disasters
related to offshore drilling are rare, but the expansion in drilling
activities will undoubtedly bring with it increased marine environ-
mental degradation due to oil spills, drilling muds, and other
pollutants related to resource extraction.

     The quantity of drilling mud discharges will increase dramatic-
ally as outer continental shelf development increases.  These muds
contain numerous chemicals which may be environmentally unacceptable:
from bactericides, calcium removers, and pH control products; to
emulsifiers, lubricants, thinners, and foaming agents.  This is a mat-
ter of concern since drilling muds often contain substances known to
have carcinogenic effects.  Some chemicals found in drilling muds are
capable of accumulating in marine organisms, and others persist for
years in bottom sediments.

9.3  OCEAN DUMPING

9.3.1  Environmental Effects
     Three major categories of waste materials are presently being
dumped into U.S. coastal waters:  sewage sludge, industrial waste,
and dredge spoils.  The environmental effects associated with dumped
wastes are dependent upon the quantity and types of pollutants con-
tained in the dumped or discharged material.  Dumping sewage sludge
 ^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Workshop on National Needs
  and Priorities for Ocean Pollution Research and Development and
  Monitoring, EPA-600/8-79-012, Tysons Corner, Virginia, November
  14-16, 1978, p. 38.
                                499

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presents numerous problems including the washing ashore of garbage
and grease, and the introduction of human pathogens,  toxic organic
chemicals, and heavy metals into the marine environment.  Major con-
cerns associated with dumping industrial waste are related to the
persistence and bioaccumulation of toxic organic chemicals,  metals,
and other inorganic substances into the ocean.  Dredged materials may
disrupt marine communities affected by siltation,  and may contain
toxic or hazardous organic chemicals or trace metals.

9.3.2  Regulatory Mandates

     The dumping of sludge, industrial waste, and  dredged materials
is regulated by the Marine Protection, Research, and  Sanctuaries Act
of 1972 (PL 92-532).  The 1977 Amendments to the Act  require that no
permits be issued for the dumping of sewage sludge after December 31,
1980.

     It now appears, however, that because of the  lack of economical-
ly viable alternative sewage sludge disposal options, there may be
some dumping beyond the 1980 deadline.  It is expected that this
dumping will occur only after all possible alternatives to ocean
dumping have been thoroughly examined, and only if the sludge is con-
sidered to be environmentally acceptable.

     No specific date for terminating industrial waste dumping has
been set.  However, EPA is required to "prevent or strictly limit the
dumping into ocean waters of any material which would adversely
affect human health, welfare or amenities, or marine  environment,
ecoTogical systems, or economic potentialities."

     The regulation of dredge spoils dumping is mandated by Section
404 of the Clean Water Act, as amended in 1977.  The  Army Corps of
Engineers is required to administer a permit system to control dump-
ing, while the EPA is authorized to restrict dumping  in areas which
may be adversely affected ecologically.

9.3.3  Trends in Ocean Dumping Excluding Dredged Material

     From 1949 to 1953, an average of 1.7 million tons per year of
sewage sludge, industrial waste, construction and demolition debris,
solid waste, explosives, chemical munitions, and radioactive wastes
were dumped into the ocean.  This quantity increased  steadily, and
between 1964 and 1968 averaged 7.4 million tons annually.  After 1970
the dumping of radioactive wastes, explosives, and chemical munitions
was halted.  The total quantity of dumped materials,  including sewage
sludge, industrial waste, construction and demolition debris, solid
waste, incinerated wood, and incinerated chemicals rose to 10.9
million tons in 1973.  With the implementation of the Marine

                                 500

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Protection Research  and  Santuaries Act,  total annual dumping dropped
to 7 or 8 million  tons in  1977-1978 (see Figure 9-2).12  It is
expected that this downward  trend will continue because of the
congressionally mandated halt  of  sewage  sludge dumping on or before
December 31, 1981.   Dumping  of relatively benign industrial waste in
the Atlantic Ocean will  probably  keep the total annual figures above
5 million tons until at  least  1985.   Industrial waste dumping in the
Gulf of Mexico ceased in 1978  and has not occurred in the Pacific for
several years.  By 1990  all  dumping of sewage sludge and industrial
waste is expected to cease.
         12
       CO 10

       18
       co  6
       Z
       §4
           1950
1960
1980
1990
                                 1970
                                 YEAR
               Note: Quantities from 1949 to 1968 are five year averages. Projections
                   are based on regulatory schedules, see text.
Source: Council on Environmental Quality,  Ocean Dumping;  A National Policy,
        October 1970.
        U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,  Annual Report on Administration
        of the Ocean Dumping Permit  Program,  first  through sixth editions.

                                  FIGURE 9-2
         TRENDS IN OCEAN DUMPING, EXCLUDING DREDGED MATERIAL
                                   1949-2000
^Council on Environmental Quality, Ocean  Dumping:   A National
  Policy, October 1970, p. 8.  Also, U.S.  Environmental Protection
  Agency, Annual Report on Administration  of  the  Ocean Dumping Permit
  Program (annually since 1973).
                                  501

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9.3.4  Trends in Dredged Materials Dumping

     In 1968, the United States dumped approximately 54.9 million
tons of dredged material.  This figure rose rather slowly until 1973,
but took a big jump in 1974 when more than 144.1 million tons were
dumped.  Total annual quantities decreased since then to the 1977 and
1978 figures of 59.1 and 75.6 million tons, respectively (see Figure
9-3).l^  Future annual totals are not expected to fall lower than
this general range because of the continual need for maintenence
dredging of many harbor areas.  However, it should be noted that
annual figures for dredged material dumping can easily fluctuate.
Variable weather conditions and large scale flooding in the Missis-
sippi River drainage area, for example, can have a significant effect
on the total tons of material dredged in the United States.

    The total annual quantities of dredged material will probably
increase slightly between 1980 and 2000, with large year-to-year
fluctuations.  However, this trend could be reversed if the United
States were to take advantage of potential alternative uses of
dredged materials such as landfill for wetland restoration and arti-
ficial island construction, and as a component of building and paving
materials.  Recent increased efforts by the U.S. Department of Agri-
culture Soil Conservation Service to reduce soil runoff by encourag-
ing shifts in land use practices should decrease the amount of
dredging required.

9.3.5  Ocean Disposal of Radioactive Wastes

     While such countries as'Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland,
and the United Kingdom are dumping low-level radioactive wastes in
the Northeast Atlantic, the United States does not now dispose of any
radioactive wastes in the oceans.  The disposal practices of foreign
countries are nevertheless a matter of concern in light of recent
data indicating a trend toward increasingly radioactive materials.
As Table 9-3 shows, while the total weight of dumped materials has
remained relatively constant, the radioactivity as measured by alpha
radiation from long-lived actinide isotopes has been gradually
increasing.^
          on Environmental Quality, Ocean Dumping:  A National
  Policy, October 1970, p. 8.  Also, U.S. Environmental Protection
  Agency, Annual Report on Administration of the Ocean Dumping Permit
  Program (annually since 1973).  Also, personal communication, Army
  Corps of Engineers.
1^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality;  The
  Tenth Annual Report, Washington, D.C., Government Printing Office,
  1980, p. 623.

                                  502

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        150
        100
     C/}
     Z
     1
     d
        50
         0
          1965    1970
1980
  YEAR
1990
2000
           * Data converted from cubic yards to tons,
            at 1.43 tons per cubic yard.
Source: Council on Environmental Quality, Ocean Dumping; A National  Policy,
        October 1970, and U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Annual
        Report on Administration of the Ocean Dumping Permit Program,
        first  through sixth editions.

                                FIGURE 9-3
           TRENDS IN OCEAN DUMPING OF DREDGED MATERIAL
                                 1968-2000
                                     503

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                              TABLE 9-3
               OCEAN DISPOSAL OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES3
        1967   1969   1971   1972   1973   1974   1975   1976   1977

Dumped 10,840  9,180  3,970  4,130  4,350  2,270  4,460  6,770  5,605
Weight
(Metric
Tons)

        1967   1969   1971   1972   1973   1974   1975   1976   1977

Alpha    250    500    630    680    740    420    780    880    958
Activity*5
(actinides)
aBy Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
 members.
^measured in curies

Note:  One should keep in mind that while the ocean disposal of
       low-level radioactive wastes by the U.S. has not occurred
       since 1970, there is a possibility that this practice could be
       resumed.  The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has recommended
       further study of ocean disposal of low-level radioactive
       wastes.0  The Federal Interagency Task Force on Nuclear
       Waste Management in its March 1979 report to the President
       mentioned ocean disposal and burial in accordance with EPA
       regulations as nuclear waste disposal options.^

       CU.S.  Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Screening of
        Alternative Methods for the Disposal of Low-Level Radioactive
        Wastes, NUREG/CR-0308, U C209/02 (Washington,  D.C.,  October
        1978), pp. 30-32.

       "Report to the President by the Interagency Review Group on
        Nuclear Waste Management, Document No. TID-29442, March 1979.
Source:  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Acti-
         vity Reports of the European Nuclear Energy Agency, Nos.  9-
         13 (Paris:OECD, 1967-71); Activity Reports of the Nuclear
         Energy Agency, Nos. 1-6 (Paris:OECD/NEA,  1972-1977)
                                  504

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9.4  OCEAN DISCHARGES

9.4.1  Environmental Effects

     Two other major sources of ocean pollution are municipal and
industrial outfalls.  These outfalls present problems in that they
discharge biostimulating nutrients, organic chemicals, toxic heavy
metals, and microbial pollutants into the marine ecosystem.  These
discharges are frequently released in coastal and estuarine areas
that are particularly sensitive to chemical changes in the
environment.

9.4.2  Regulatory Mandates

     Ocean outfalls are regulated by Sections 301 and 403 of the
Clean Water Act.  Secondary treatment of municipal sewage is normally
required prior to discharge through ocean outfalls.  However, a num-
ber of municipalities are being considered for special permits allow-
ing the discharge of waste which has received less than secondary
treatment.  Modified permits will be issued only if the discharger
meets several statutory criteria designed to ensure that the modifi-
cation will not increase the discharge of toxic pollutants or damage
indigenous biological populations.

9.4.3  Trends in Ocean Discharges

     A trend in the discharge of waste from outfalls is difficult to
determine due to uncertainties in the data on the number and location
of these sources of marine pollution.  Approximately 2 billion  gal-
lons per day are presently discharged directly into the ocean from
about 1,970 municipal and 80 industrial outfalls.  (These figures do
not include a far greater number of outfalls that discharge somewhat
smaller volumes of waste into bays and saline estuaries of the United
States.)  More than half of this national total daily discharge
results from four California outfalls.^  Many, if not most, munici-
pal ocean outfalls have less than secondary treatment.

     EPA is in the process of developing outfall regulations under
authority of Section 301(b) and 403(c) of the Clean Water Act.  The
regulations, if adopted, will apply to municipal and industrial
facilities.  What impact these regulations will have on the total
volume of materials discharged through ocean outfalls cannot be
 -l.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Workshop on National Needs
  and Priorities for Ocean Pollution Research and Development and
  Monitoring, EPA-600/8-79-012, Tysons Corner, Virginia, November 14-
  16, 1978, p. 38.

                                 505

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determined at this time; however, secondary treatment requirements
will dramatically improve the quality of wastes being discharged over
the next 10 years.

9.5  OTHER ISSUES

     Numerous other issues related to the adverse impact of human
activities on the marine environment deserve attention.  Three of
these issues are effects of coal and nuclear power generation facili-
ties, deep sea mining, and toxic chemicals.

9.5.1  Power Generation Facilities

     A typical coastal 1,000 megawatt nuclear power plant entrains
about a million gallons of seawater per minute. ^  Numerous small
organisms such as phytoplankton, zooplankton, fish eggs, and various
species of larvae pass through the cooling system along with the
cooling water.  During their journey through the system these plank-
tonic organisms encounter currents,  filters, screens, pumps, chemi-
cals, and heated water, all of which place considerable stress on the
organism.  Larger fish may be impinged on the intake screens.  The
ecological balance of marine communities can be altered due to the
impacts of these stresses on individual species.  Coal-fired power
plants, designed to generate electricity through the use of steam,
present similar thermal, pollution,  impingement, and entrainment
problems.  The increase in siting of coal and nuclear power plants
near or along estuarine and marine environments over the next 20
years will necessitate the development of technologies to reduce the
effects on marine life.

     In recent years the electric power industry has developed tech-
nologies which allow the siting of power plants at locations which
would have previously been environmentally unacceptable.  However,
much progress is yet to be made.  Selective intake technologies must
be developed to prevent the passage  of economically and ecologically
important marine species through the cooling system.  Discharge
technologies must be improved to allow the direct atmospheric ejec-
tion of heat, and alternative energy proceses utilizing waste heat,
such as cogeneration,  should be evaluated.

9.5.2  Deep Sea Mining

     International debate over deep  sea mining jurisdiction is pre-
sently blocking the large scale extraction of such minerals as
^•"Calculated from Carpenter,  E.J. ,  "Power Plant Entrainment of
  Aquatic Organisms," Oceanus Magazine:   Marine Pollution,  Fall 1974,
  p. 35.

                                 506

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manganese, copper, cobalt, and nickel.  World reserves of exploitable
marine mineral deposits are on the order of 1.7 trillion metric
tons.*'  It appears that sooner or later these resources will be
mined.  Evaluations as to how these activities will affect the marine
environment are now under way.  Researchers are examining possible
effects on marine life due to such impacts as siltation of habitats
and destruction of benthic food supplies.  It is important to evalu-
ate the effects of deep sea mining on the marine environment before
embarking on such a program.

9.5.3  Toxic Chemicals

     With the dramatic increase in the development of synthetic
organic chemicals since World War II, comes a new threat to the
marine environment.  A significant number of the 7,000 organic and
inorganic chemical substances now in commerce may adversely affect
marine organisms and even have mutagenic or carcinogenic effects on
humans through food chains.    The various mechanisms by which
these chemicals are transported into and through the ocean are not
well understood.  Numerous biological, chemical and physical factors
influence the fate of toxics.  Accurate predictions as to what quan-
tities of chemical pollutants may enter the ocean without long-term
adverse effects cannot be made until the transport and fate of these
substances are better understood.

     The need to understand these processes becomes clear when some
of the implications of today's oil crisis are understood.  Substitu-
tions in the chemical industry as petrochemical feedstock supplies
decline, or as new products are developed, will alter the mix of
chemicals released.  A basic understanding of relative toxicity and
the significance of these new chemical wastes in terms of ecosystem
effects is essential to the establishment of a regulatory framework
for protecting coastal waters from toxic wastes.

9.6  SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS

     Pollution of the marine environment from ocean dumping and dis-
charge is expected to decrease significantly during the next 20
years.  This trend is due primarily to the anticipated effectiveness
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Workshop on National Needs
  and Priorities for Ocean Pollution Research and Development and
  Monitoring, EPA-600/8-79-012, Tysons Corner, Virginia, November
  14-16, 1978, p. 38.
10
10U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development, Research Outlook
  1979, EPA-600/9-005, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
  B.C., February 1979, p. 3.

                                 507

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of environmental controls either now in effect or pending.  For  exam-
ple, the practice of dumping industrial wastes in the Pacific Ocean
and Gulf of Mexico has already been effectively eliminated; and  dump-
ing sewage sludge is expected to be greatly curtailed by 1981.   How-
ever, unless new disposal methods or uses are discovered and/or
required, the practice of dumping dredged materials will probably
continue at about present levels.

     On the other hand, pollution of the marine environment due  to
oil spills is expected to increase during the next 20 years.  This
trend is due primarily to forecast increases in offshore oil and gas
production and transportation of oil by tankers.  That is, the rate
of oil spills from these sources is not expected to vary significant-
ly from the historical trends described in this chapter.  Rather, it
is the increase in activity and, therefore, increased opportunities
for accidents that lead to a forecast of increased marine pollution
from oil spills.

     Although generally not discussed in this chapter, the trends in
point and non-point water pollutants, discussed in Chapter 6, have
important marine pollution implications.  In particular, trends  in
the agricultural runoff, and oil and grease categories can have sig-
nificant impact on the marine environment.  Both are sources of  the
toxic substances discussed above as well as the conventional pollu-
tants discussed in Chapter 6.  As point sources are controlled more
effectively,  non-point sources,  such as municipal and agricultural
runoff,  will contribute a larger percentage to water pollution prob-
lems generally, including problems in the marine environment.  Based
on the findings in Chapter 6, the overall national trend is expected
to be an increase in the annual  discharge of pollutants in the non-
point category.  These include agricultural runoff,  which is a major
source of nutrients, and toxics, pesticides, and acids, all of which
can cause marine pollution problems,  particularly in critical ecosys-
tems in the coastal zones.

     Another  pollutant of particular concern for the marine environ-
ment is refined oil and grease.   As discussed in Chapter 6, this
category of pollutants comprises thousands of organic compounds, many
of which are toxic to aquatic organisms.  If non-marine operations
continue to be the source of more oil pollution than marine opera-
tions or even a major source, as some studies project, future trends
in the introduction of oil into  the marine environment will depend in
large part on controlling the release or discharge of oil and grease
                                 508

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 from these  non-marine  sources. 9  The  trends projected  in Chapter 6
 show an expected decline in oil and grease discharges nationally.
 However, increased  discharges are projected for  the Northwest Region
 (Federal Region X).
1 9
i:7The most recent statistics are from two studies  published in 1970
  and 1971:   Massachusetts Institute of Technology,  Man's Impact on
  the Global Environment,  Report of the Study of Critical Environ-
  mental Problems (SCEP),  Cambridge,  Massachusetts,  MIT Press,
  1970;  and  National Academy of Sciences, Marine Environmental
  Quality, Washington,  D.C., 1971.


                                509

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                             CHAPTER 10
                SOLID AND HAZARDOUS WASTES
                       HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 10

o  Ensuring the safe disposal of hazardous wastes and identifying and
   containing existing active and abandoned disposal sites is one of
   the most critical problems currently facing EPA.

o  Annual generation of all types of solid wastes studied is expected
   to at least double and maybe triple between 1975  and 2000.   In
   most cases recycling is not expected to offset these increases.

o  As annual disposal requirements increase, the problems of solid
   waste disposal, particularly land-related problems,  may become
   severe in some areas.

o  Inadequate disposal of solid wastes has been shown to be a major
   cause of ground water contamination.  In some areas  drinking water
   supplies have been contaminated in this fashion.

10.1  INTRODUCTION

10.1.1  Problem Identification and Regulatory Background

     The need for better disposal of solid and liquid wastes,  espe-
cially hazardous wastes, is getting increasing attention nationwide.
The United States generates some 4 billion tons of solid waste every
year according to EPA's Office of Solid Waste (OSW), which estimates
industrial wastes at 380 million tons, municipal refuse at 145 mil-
lion tons, sewage sludge at 5.5 million tons, agricultural wastes at
475 million tons, and mining wastes at 3 billion tons.l  Much of
this waste is discarded on land, polluting air and water, creating
health hazards, and degrading surrounding areas.   Furthermore, OSW
estimates that this mass of waste material includes  33  to 44 million
tons of hazardous wastes, much of it disposed of in  haphazard fash-
ion.2
•'•U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of  Water  and  Waste
 Management,  EPA Activities Under the Resource Conservation and
 Recovery Act;   Fiscal Year 1978, SW-755,  Washington, D.C.,  March
 1979, pp. 1-2.
•'U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of  Public Awareness,
 "Hazardous Waste Fact Sheet," EPA Journal:   Waste  Alert, Vol. 5,
 Washington,  D.C.,  February 1979, p.  12.
                                511

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     EPA has developed a general approach in recent years to address
the solid waste problem.  This approach has three parts.  First, the
quantity of solid waste generated annually should be reduced.  This
could be accomplished by waste reduction techniques, such as increas-
ing product durability or changing production techniques.  Second,
whenever possible, solid waste should be used as a source of materi-
als and energy.  This would involve expanding the use of recycling and
resource recovery.  Third, whatever solid waste is generated and can-
not be reused must be disposed of in a manner that is safe for human
health and the environment.

     This chapter examines the trends in the generation and disposal
of the major types of solid waste.  Overall solid waste generation is
increasing.  Recycling and resource recovery are expected to partly
offset the increases expected, but only expanded use of waste reduc-
tion techniques, particularly within industry, can lessen or reverse
the expected annual increase in generation of wastes.  Meanwhile, the
wastes that are not amenable to waste reduction or recycling tech-
niques must be disposed of safely.

     The three-part approach described is embodied in the Resource
Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) passed in 1976.  This Act, which
amended Title II of the Solid Waste Disposal Act-' is designed to
"promote the protection of health and the environment and to conserve
valuable material and energy resources."^  In RCRA, Congress has
defined solid wastes as

          Any garbage, refuse, sludge from a waste treatment plant,
          water supply treatment plant, or air pollution control
          facility and other discarded material, including solid,
          liquid, semisolid or contained gaseous material resulting
          from industrial, commercial, mining, and agricultural
          operations and from community activities.-*

Specifically not included in this definition are

          Solid or dissolved material in irrigation return flows or
          industrial discharges subject to permits under Section 402
          of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act ... or source,
3The Solid Waste Disposal Act, 42 U.S.C. 3251 et seq.
^The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, PL 94-580, Section
 1003.
^The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, PL 94-580 as amended
 by the Quiet Communities Act of 1978; Section 1004  (27).
                                  512

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          special nuclear, or byproduct material defined by the
          Atomic Energy Act....

This definition of solid waste will be used throughout the chapter ex-
cept where specialized treatment is necessary.'

     Three of the eight RCRA sections embody most of the regulatory
provisions:

          Subtitle A:  General Provisions
          Subtitle C:  Hazardous Wastes
          Subtitle D:  State or Regional Solid Waste Plans

     Subtitle A requires EPA to publish suggested guidelines for solid
waste management.  Subtitle C requires EPA to promulgate regulations
concerning hazardous wastes for the purpose of monitoring and control-
ling such wastes from the point of generation to ultimate disposal—
"from the cradle to the grave."  This portion also defines what is
meant by a hazardous waste.  The objective of Subtitle D is to "assist
in developing and encouraging methods for the disposal of solid wastes
which are environmentally sound and which maximize the resource con-
servation.""  To work toward this objective, state or regional
authorities must submit plans to EPA for approval.

     EPA has not as yet promulgated final regulations under any of
these sections.  The status of the regulations as of May 15, 1979 is
summarized in Table 10-1.

     Many laws and regulations beside RCRA affect solid waste genera-
tion and disposal.  These include the Clean Air Act and the Clean
Water Act, which will be discussed where appropriate in this chapter
and in other chapters.

10.1.2  Relevant Scenario Assumptions

     The projections for the various types of solid waste discussed in
this chapter are not based on a single set of scenario assumptions,
but are taken from numerous individual analyses.  Each of Sections
10.3, 10.4, 10.5, and 10.6 is based wholly or in part on SEAS projec-
tions.  However, the projections used are not all the result of the
same scenario.  Therefore, each section will either discuss the
"The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, PL  94-580 as amended
 by the Quiet Communities Act of 1978; Section 1004 (27).
^This caveat applies to Section 10.3 in particular.  Specific defi-
 nitions will be provided in this section.
^The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, PL 94-580, Section
 4001.

                                513

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                             TABLE 10-1
      RCRA REGULATIONS AND GUIDELINES ISSUED OR IN PREPARATION
                         AS OF MAY 15, 1979a
  Section
of the Act

  1008
      Description

Solid waste management
guidelines
  3001     Identification and
           listing of hazardous
           waste
          Status

Proposed guidelines on landfill
disposal scheduled for March
1979 with final in January 1980

Proposed December 18, 1978
Final scheduled for May  1980
  3002     Standards for generators
           of hazardous waste

  3003     Standards for
           transporters of
           hazardous waste
                           Proposed December 18, 1979
                           Final scheduled for February 1980

                           Proposed April 28, 1978
                           Final scheduled for February 1980
  3004
  3005
Standards for hazardous    Proposed December 18, 1978
waste treatment, storage,  Final scheduled for April 1980
and disposal facilities
Permits for treatment,
storage, or disposal of
hazardous waste
Proposed June 14, 1979
Final scheduled for April 1980
  3006     Guidelines for develop-
           ment of state hazardous
           waste programs
                           Proposed February 1,  1978
                           Reproposed  June 14,  1979
                           Final scheduled for  April 1980
  3010     Notification system
           regulations

  4002(a)  Guidelines for
           identification of
           regions and agencies
           for solid waste
           management

  4002(b)  Guidelines for state
           plans
                           Proposed July 11, 1978
                           Final scheduled for February 1980

                           Interim guidelines published
                           May 16, 1977
                           Proposed August 28, 1978
                           Final published in July 1979
                             (Continued)

                                514

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                      TABLE 10-1 CONCLUDED
     RCRA REGULATIONS AND GUIDELINES ISSUED OR IN PREPARATION
                        AS OF MAY 15, 1979

 Section
of the Act      Description                     Status

  4004     Criteria for classi-       Proposed February 6, 1978
           fication of disposal       Final published in September
           facilities                 1979

  4005     Open dump survey           Awaiting 4004 criteria

  8002     Special studies

             Composition of Waste Stream       Current
             Priorities Study                  Current
             Small-scale and Low Technology    Current
             Front-end Source Separation       Current
             Mining Waste                      FY 1979
             Sludge                            FY 1979
             Glass and Plastic                 Start FY 1978
             Tires                             Start FY 1978
             Resource Recovery Facilities      Start FY 1978
             Resource Conservation Committee
               Beverage Bottle Study           FY 1979
               Disposal Charge Study           Current
a'This list reflects the status of the RCRA guidelines and regulations
  as of May 15, 1979.  As of the date of publication of the 1980
  Environmental Outlook, few if any of the deadlines for promulgation
  given here are expected-to be met.
                                 515

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relevant scenario assumptions or refer to a discussion of the
scenarios on which the projections are based.  In each case, these
projections are used as indicators of general trends rather than
precise forecasts.

10.1.3  Data Sources and Quality

     The data sources used in preparing this chapter vary considera-
bly.  Because of this, no attempt will be made here to analyze the
sources as a group.  The data sources used in each section are refer-
enced in the appropriate sections.  Discussions of the data quality
for the SEAS-based sections (Sections 10.4.3 and 10.5) are included in
those sections.

10.1.4  Organization of Chapter

     Five types of solid wastes are discussed in the following sec-
tions:  hazardous wastes, municipal and industrial solid wastes, min-
ing and related wastes, and secondary wastes arising from pollution
controls.  An additional section deals, in less detail, with agricul-
tural wastes and other types of solid wastes not already discussed.

     The discussion centers around trends in the generation of these
wastes and potential adverse environmental effects.  Current, future,
and alternative methods of disposal are analyzed in the context of the
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act.  Implications of these trends
and disposal problems are discussed in Section 10.7, followed by sum-
mary and conclusions in Section 10.8.

10.2  HAZARDOUS WASTES

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 10.2

o  Annual generation of hazardous wastes is expected to double between
   1975 and 2000.

o  Inadequate disposal of hazardous wastes generated in the past has
   already had significant adverse human health impacts in some areas.
   The cost to correct past inadequacies is unknown but may be large.
   A Federal fund to provide resources to contain existing or aban-
   doned hazardous waste disposal sites has been proposed in
   Congress.

o  Final regulations under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act
   to control hazardous wastes are expected by the end of 1979.  The
   total cost to industry of implementing the regulations has been
   estimated by EPA at more than $750 million annually.
                                  516

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10.2.1  Introduction

     Congress, in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, has
defined hazardous wastes as

          a solid waste, or combination of solid wastes which, because
          of its quantity, concentration, physical, chemical, or in-
          fectious characteristics may

          (A)  cause, or significantly contribute to an increase in
               mortality or an increase in serious irreversible or
               incapacitating reversible illness; or

          (B)  pose a substantial present or potential hazard to human
               health or the environment when improperly treated,
               stored, transported, or disposed of, as otherwise man-
               aged."

To summarize:  Hazardous wastes are those that pose a significant
threat to human health or the environment during any phase of the
waste's existence.

     From 10 to 15 percent of the 380 million tons (wet weight) of
industrial waste produced annually in the United States is hazardous,
according to EPA estimates.  EPA has identified 17 industry groups
that produce 38 million tons (wet) of hazardous waste.^  Sixty-five
percent of these wastes are generated in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Louisiana, Michigan, Indiana. Illinois, Tennessee, West Virginia, and
California (see Table 10-2).Ix

     Much of this waste is currently disposed of in a manner not con-
sistent with proposed regulations for the hazardous wastes studied.
It has been estimated that 50 percent of all hazardous waste is dis-
posed of in unlined surface lagoons, 30 percent goes into non-secure
landfills, and 10 percent is either spread on roads, dumped into
sewers, incinerated under uncontrolled conditions, or injected into
deep wells.  Therefore, only 10 percent of all hazardous waste is
disposed of safely.12
'The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, PL 94-580, Section
  4001.
       Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Public Awareness,
  "Hazardous Waste Fact Sheet," EPA Journal .'Waste Alert, Vol.  5,
  Washington, B.C., February 1979, p.  12.
       ,  T.H. II, "Toxic Waste Disposal:  A Growing Problem,"
  Science, Vol. 204, May 25, 1979, p.  819.

                                 517

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                            TABLE 10-2
      GENERATION OF HAZARDOUS WASTE BY SELECTED INDUSTRIES
                               1977

     Industry Group                   Waste (10  tons, wet)
Organic Chemicals                              12.9

Primary Metals                                  9.9

Electroplating                                  4.5

Inorganic Chemicals                        -     4.4

Textiles                                        2.1

Petroleum Refining                              2.0

Rubber and Plastics                             1.1

Miscellaneous (7 Industries)                    1.1

Total                                          38.0
Source:   U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, "Hazardous Waste Fact
         Sheet," EPA Journal:   Waste Alert, Vol. 5, Washington, D.C.,
         February, 1979.
                                 518

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     The greater portion (70 to 80 percent) of all hazardous waste is
disposed of on-site.  The remaining portion is handled by commercial
disposal companies.

     It is currently estimated that industrial waste generation is
increasing at a rate of 3 percent per year.^  If this trend con-
tinues and hazardous waste continues to represent 10 to 15 percent of
the industrial waste total, annual hazardous waste generation would
exceed 75 million tons (wet) by 2000.

     Two distinct problems are posed by the generation and disposal of
these wastes:  First, what is to be done about existing abandoned dis-
posal sites that contain hazardous wastes stored without adequate pre-
cautions?  Second, how are we to cope with future generation of haz-
ardous waste?  The following discussion treats each of these aspects
separately.

10.2.2  Existing Disposal Sites

     In 1978, a major health disaster caused by inadequate disposal of
hazardous waste first came to national attention.  Numerous chemicals
were found to be leaching f-rom an abandoned dumpsite along the Love
Canal in Niagara Falls, New York.  These chemicals were found in the
basements and yards of the houses surrounding the dumpsite.  Air sam-
ples taken in and around the houses indicated the presence of several
dangerous chemicals.  More than 20,000 tons of chemical wastes had
been placed in the site 25 years ago by the Hooker Chemical Company.
There is evidence that 300 different chemicals are present in the
dumpsite; 100 have been identified, and include 11 suspected carcino-
gens and one known carcinogen, benzene.  David Axelrod, New York State
Health Commissioner, has estimated that possibly 10 percent of the
chemicals in the dumpsite may be mutagens, teratogens, and carcino-
gens .1^

     The possibility of the presence of such agents is supported by
health statistics of the people living in the area.  The incidence of
miscarriages in young women living in certain areas around the canal
was three times the normal rate.  The incidence of birth defects in
children born to parents living in the area was 3.5 times the normal
rate.  Many of the adults living in the area have shown signs of liver
     . Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Public Awareness,
  Solid Waste Facts:  A Statistical Handbook, OPA-113/8, August 1978,
  p. 2.
     gh, T.H. II, "An Environmental Time Bomb Gone Off," Science,
  Vol. 204, May 25, 1979, pp. 820-823.


                                  519

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damage. I-'  Whereas these statistics are preliminary and subject to
sampling problems, it is safe to say that the incidences of these
health problems are elevated near the Love Canal.*°

     Measures have been taken to seal off the area around the dump-
site.  In August 1978 the Love Canal area was declared eligible for
Federal disaster relief funds.  The total cost to clean up the site
has been estimated at $30 million.    Lawsuits involving $2 billion
are currently in progress.

     This disaster graphically illustrates the dangers we now face be-
cause of past inadequacies in disposing of hazardous wastes.  Fur-
ther, more than 300 additional incidents involving hazardous wastes
have been reported to EPA.    It must be stressed, however, that in
many cases—Love Canal as an example—the disposal methods used com-
plied with the regulations existing at the time.

     EPA has identified 151 sites in the United States that pose a
potential threat to human health or the environment due to the pre-
sence of hazardous wastes (see Figure 10-1).    These include Kin
Buck landfill in New Jersey, the "Valley of the Drums" in Kentucky,
and numerous on-site disposal areas such as the chemical dumpsite near
White Lake, Michigan.20  This list of sites is under continuous
review and new sites are being added to the list periodically.  One
estimate prepared for OSW indicates that as many as 32,000 active or
abandoned dump sites may contain hazardous wastes, with more than 800
containing significant quantities of such wastes.  This estimate was
based on a survey of EPA regions.  Use of an alternative method based
on the quantity of hazardous waste generated annually resulted in an
estimate of more than 50,000 active and inactive hazardous waste
     gh, T.H. II, "An Environmental Time Bomb Gone Off,"   Science,
  Vol. 204, May 25, 1979, pp. 820-823.  Further epidemiological
  studies, all producing different quantitative results, do not
  dispute the conclusions of increased incidences of the health
  problems noted in the Love Canal area.
^Personal communication, Glenn E. Haughie, M.D., Department of
  Health, State of New York, July 1979.
^Maugh, T.H. II, "An Environmental Time Bomb Gone Off," Science,
  Vol. 204, May 25, 1979, pp. 820-823.
*%.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Subtitle C, Resource Con-
  servation and Recovery Act of 1976 Draft Environmental Impact State-
  ment Appendices, Appendix J, January 1979, p. J-l.
19U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Revised Status Report -
  Hazardous Waste Sites, June 1,  1979.
20Maugh, T.H. II, "Toxic Waste Disposal:  A Growing Problem,"
  Science, Vol. 204, May 25, 1979, p. 822.

                                  520

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Source:   Based on U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Revised
         Status Report-Hazardous Waste Sites,  June 1,  1979.
                                              FIGURE 10-1
                                  IDENTIFIED HAZARDOUS WASTE SITES

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sites.21  These estimates make it clear that, while no one knows
exactly how many sites contain hazardous wastes, the number of such
sites is significant.  The potential exists, therefore, for more dis-
asters like the Love Canal.

     Along with uncertainty as to the number of hazardous waste sites
goes uncertainty as to total cleanup cost.  As mentioned, the cost of
cleaning up the Love Canal site is estimated at more than $30 million.
Estimates of total clean-up costs made in a report to OSW range from
$3.6 billion to $44.1 billion.22  The estimates depend both on the
number of sites and the level of treatment required to clean up a
site.  Cost estimates on a per site basis range from $4 million to $26
million.  It must be emphasized that these estimates, because of their
preliminary nature, serve only to illustrate the magnitude of the
costs.

     The major vehicle through which EPA can aid in cleaning up exist-
ing or abandoned sites is RCRA's "imminent hazard" provision,23
which allows EPA to file suit against a company to force it to change
the ways it handles, stores, treats, and disposes of hazardous wastes
if these practices present "an imminent and substantial endangerment
to health or the environment.1^  The court may also force the com-
pany to take any remedial measures needed to alleviate the danger.

     This section has major weaknesses for addressing the widespread
problem identified here.  For the legislation to be effective for a
given site, the company responsible must be identified and that com-
pany must be solvent.  For many abandoned sites, these conditions can-
not be met.  Even if they are met, the litigation may last for years.

     Cost is the major barrier to cleaning up sites.  The situation
for abandoned sites has been characterized by Thomas C. Jorling, EPA's
Assistant Administrator for Water and Waste Management:

          We find that the question is not so much one of authority,
          legislative or otherwise.  The states have sufficient
21pred C. Hart Associates, Preliminary Assessment of Cleanup Costs
  for National Hazardous Waste Problems, prepared for and published by
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Solid Wastes, 1979,
  pp. 11, 23.
22Ibid.
23gteffen W. Plehn, Deputy Assistant Administrator for Solid Waste,
  in interview with Charles Pierce, editor, in "A Look Ahead," EPA
  Journal:  Waste Alert, Vol. 5, February 1979, p. 11.
      Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, PL 94-580, Section
  7003.
                                 522

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          authority under their police powers....  Instead, the
          question is finding the resources to provide a remedy.25

To handle this resource problem, President Carter has proposed that
the government establish a "Superfund"2° to provide money to contain
existing uncontrolled hazardous waste disposal sites.  This $1.6 bil-
lion .fund, established over four years, would be funded by the Federal
government (20 percent) and fees on the industries that generate haz-
ardous wastes (80 percent).  According to the proposal,2* the fund
would be used as follows:

     o  Once a site has been found to be hazardous, an effort will be
        made to identify the party responsible and ask that the site
        be cleaned up.

     o  If the party responsible refuses, or if no responsible party
        can be found, the Federal government will provide up to
        $300,000 from the fund in emergency assistance.  This money
        would be used for immediate projects, such as providing an
        alternative drinking water supply.

     o  If the state government agrees to cooperate in containing the
        site and to maintain the site for 19 years after containment,
        the Federal government, from the fund, will provide 100 per-
        cent of the first $200,000 of containment cost, and 90 percent
        of any containment cost over $200,000.  The state government
        will provide the remaining 10 percent of the containment costs
        over $200,000 and money to maintain the site for the remaining
        19 years of the agreement.  The state must also assure that
        any necessary offsite treatment facilities are available.

     o  If the disposal site is state-owned, the state must pay 50
        percent of any containment costs as well as maintain the site.

     o  The fund would cover only economic damages and would not cover
        personal injury, medical costs, or third party damages.
25ihomas C. Jorling, Assistant Administrator for Water and Waste
  Management, in interview with John Heritage, assistant editor, in
  "Managing Hazardous Wastes," EPA Journal;  Waste Alert, Vol. 5,
  February 1979, p. 7.
      "Superfund" proposal is contained in the proposed Oil, Hazard-
  ous Substances, and Hazardous Waste Response, Liability, and Compen-
  sation Act of 1979.  See Chapter 9 for more information on the Act
  itself.
^'Personal communication, Marc Tipermas, U.S. Environmental Protec-
  tion Agency, Office of Water and Waste Management, June 25, 1979.
                                 523

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The fund would be maintained, as necessary, to provide resources for
containment of hazardous waste disposal sites in the future.

10.2.3  Future Disposal of Hazardous Wastes

     Subtitle C of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, which
deals exclusively with the problem of future hazardous waste manage-
ment, has three key provisions:

     o  Identification of hazardous wastes

     o  Institution of a manifest system to track wastes through
        their life cycle

     o  Establishment of a permit system, based on standards for
        hazardous waste treatment^

States may administer the individual hazardous waste management pro-
grams if their programs are approved by EPA.  Forty-one states are
expected to request "interim authorization" to administer their pro-
grams. 2-9

     To implement Section 3001 of Subtitle C of the Act, EPA has ten-
tatively listed eight characteristics of hazardous wastes:

     1.  Ignitability           5.  Radioactivity
     2.  Corrosivity            6.  Infectiousness
     3.  Reactivity             7.  Phytotoxicity
     4.  Leachate toxicity      8.  Teratogenicity and mutagenicity

Proposed regulations defining these characteristics were issued on
December 18, 1978.^0  Considerable comment has been received on the
definitions and related testing procedures, and the proposed regula-
tions are being reviewed in the light of these comments.  Final regu-
lations are not expected before December 1979.
28u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water and Waste
  Management,  EPA Activities Under the Resource Conservation and
  Recovery Act:  Fiscal Year 1978, SW-755, Washington, D.C., March
  1979, p. 2-1.
29u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Public Awareness,
  "Hazardous Waste Fact Sheet," EPA Journal:  Waste Alert, Vol. 5,
  Washington,  D.C., February 1979, p. 12.
•^"Hazardous Waste:  Proposed Guidelines and Regulations and Propo-
  sal on Identification and Listing," Federal Register, December 18,
  1979, Part IV, pp. 58946-58959.
                                  524

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     Besides specific wastes meeting the hazard criteria outlined in
the proposed regulations, EPA has declared numerous classes of wastes
as hazardous.  However, if a manufacturer can show that the waste he
generates in such a class does not violate the criteria for hazard
listed in the regulations, that individual waste will be exempted from
Subtitle C provisions.

     The manifest system outlined in Subtitle C enables EPA to monitor
the flow of hazardous wastes in the economy from beginning to end.
This system, coupled with the standards for generation (Section 3002);
transportation (Section 3003); and treatment, storage, or disposal
(Section 3004), serves to ensure that hazardous wastes are handled and
disposed of safely on a waste-by-waste basis.  Final action on these
regulations is also pending.

     The proposed regulations establish a category called "special
wastes"—hazardous wastes that, because of high generation volumes but
relatively low hazard, are not amenable to control techniques devel-
oped in Subtitle D.^l  Hence, special wastes will be regulated under
a subset of the Subtitle C regulations.  Examples of special wastes
include utility waste, cement kiln dust, uranium mining wastes (as
distinct from mill tailings which are treated as radioactive materi-
al), phosphate mining, beneficiation and processing wastes, and gas
and oil drilling muds. ^

     While efforts to control hazardous wastes face several major
problems, Steffen W. Plehn, EPA's Deputy Assistant Administrator for
Solid Waste, has stated "We believe the most difficult long-term
problem will be obtaining sites for proper management of these
wastes."-^   Citizen opposition to the siting of hazardous wastes
disposal facilities in their communities is the core of this pro-
blem.  Adding to the siting problems are the restrictions on locating
disposal facilities in areas that present a danger to the integrity of
the facility (e.g., active fault zones) or in which the facility
presents a danger to the environment (e.g., wetlands).  This problem
may be relieved, to some extent, by safe operation of hazardous waste
disposal facilities.
O 1
J±The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, PL 94-580, Sections
  4001-4009.
•^"Hazardous Waste:  Proposed Guidelines and Regulations and Propo-
  sal on Identification and Listing," Federal Register, December 18,
  1978, Part IV, pp. 59015-59016.
33Steffen W. Plehn, Deputy Assistant Administrator for Solid Waste,
  interview with Charles Pierce, editor, in "A Look Ahead," EPA
  Journal!  Waste Alert, Vol. 5, February 1979, p. 11.


                                  525

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     Several treatment techniques are being developed to augment or
improve techniques now in use.  For example, many wastes can be chemi-
cally treated to detoxify the waste.  The most common techniques
include neutralization or pH adjustment, oxidation and reduction reac-
tions, and volume reduction techniques such as evaporation in a hold-
ing pond or vacuum filtration.  Less common techniques that could be
used include activated carbon adsorption and ion exchange.•**

     Drawing on the experience gained in the disposal of low-level
radioactive wastes, many companies are developing solidification tech-
niques to aid in disposing of hazardous wastes.  These techniques fall
into four basic categories:  cement-based techniques, lime-based tech-
niques, thermoplastic techniques, and organic binders.^5  Each of
these techniques has only limited applicability and no technique is
applicable to all hazardous wastes.  Nevertheless, according to Robert
Landreth of EPA, at least one solidification process can be selected
to handle any waste.^"

     A serious limitation of the chemical and solidification tech-
niques is that they are generally used not for disposal but as prepar-
ation processes before landfilling the wastes.  In keeping with the
spirit of RCRA a program that de-emphasizes land disposal would be
preferable because it would avoid the severe problems associated with
landfilling, such as lack of available sites, contamination of ground
and surface water, and health hazards.  EPA emphasizes recycling or
exchanging wastes, or altering production processes, where possible,
to eliminate hazardous wastes, in keeping with the concept that "land
disposal of hazardous waste is the last resort."-*

     To encourage action in the recycling and exchange of hazardous
and other wastes, EPA has been promoting the establishment of "waste
exchanges."  These exchanges are clearinghouses for information on
waste products that are available for uses in other processes.  Cer-
tain European countries have had success with such exchanges, but
results in the United States have been limited, primarily because in-
dustry has been reluctant to provide information on wastes produced.
According to Harry Trask of EPA, state and local efforts to become
involved in the waste exchanges have encountered many refusals by
     gh, T.H. II, "Hazardous Waste Technology Is Available,"
  Science, Vol. 204, June 1, 1979, pp. 930-933.
     gh, T.H. II, "Burial is Last Resort for Hazardous Wastes,"
  Science, Vol. 204, June 22, 1979, pp. 1295-1298.
36Ibid.
^^Steffen W. Plehn, Deputy Assistant Administrator for Solid Waste,
  interview with Charles Pierce, editor, in "A Look Ahead," EPA
  Journal:  Waste Alert, Vol. 5, February 1979, p. 11.
                                 526

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industries to provide information, because of a fear that it may fall
into what the industry considers to be "unfriendly hands."™

     Possibilities for direct reuse of hazardous wastes are also being
investigated in some industries.  This involves removing from the
wastestream materials that, on occasion, are hazardous, and reusing
them in the original production process.  In many cases these proce-
dures serve to reduce both the hazard and the volume of the wastes
ultimately generated.

     For many hazardous wastes, controlled incineration presents a
technically feasible and environmentally safe method of disposal which
is particularly applicable for organic wastes.  Several companies,
including Dow Chemical Company, Eastman Kodak, and 3M Corporation, are
disposing of hazardous wastes through high-temperature chemical waste
incineration.  The high temperatures are required to break down many
hazardous compounds.39  The United States Air Force has used ocean-
going high-temperature incineration to destroy toxic chemicals.^
It is likely, therefore, that an increasing amount of hazardous waste
could be incinerated.

     Several factors restrict the use of high temperature hazardous
waste incineration.  These include relatively high cost, lack of
effective measures to control the release of hazardous by-products of
incineration into the atmosphere, and the poor combustion properties
of many wastes.  Local resistance to siting land-based incinerators is
also a major problem.  High temperature incinceration is a very prom-
ising disposal alternative, but it is not a panacea.

     Deep wells have been used for many years to dispose of hazardous
liquid wastes and may be used to dispose of many such wastes in the
future.  Regulations to control deep well injection of hazardous
wastes have been promulgated under the Safe Drinking Water Act.  These
regulations and the possible effects of deep well injection are dis-
cussed in Chapter 7.

     For many hazardous wastes, particularly nonchlorinated organic
wastes, land farming or soil incorporation is an acceptable alterna-
tive.  The petroleum refining industry has had marked success for
         T.H. II, "Hazardous Waste Technology Is Available,"
  Science, Vol. 204, June 1, 1979, pp. 930-933.
39perham, c., "Industrial Incineration," EPA Journal:  Waste Alert,
  Vol. 5, February 1979, pp. 21, 40.
^^Whiteside, T.,  The Pendulum and the Toxic Cloud:  The Course of
  Dioxin Contamination, Yale University Press, New Haven, Connecticut,
  1979.
                                 527

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years in disposing of refinery sludge in this manner.^  EPA has
proposed regulations for land farming, including requirements on
heavy metals content and pH.^2

     In any event, short-term possibilities for recycling and
exchange of hazardous wastes are limited.  Since process changes to
eliminate hazardous waste products are in many cases infeasible or
impossible at this time, treatment and land disposal would appear to
be the major hazardous waste disposal options available, at least in
the near future.

     The major non-environmental effect of the proposed RCRA regula-
tions will be to increase the cost of disposal.  Since disposal in a
landfill may cost as little as $5 per ton, while acceptable alterna-
tives may cost as much as $300 per ton, the increased cost to indus-
try could be significant. 3  Many of the alternatives, however,
will become more competitive as the cost of landfill disposal
increases.  EPA has estimated that the cost of RCRA regulations in
the 17 industries studied would be $750 million annually; the
industry responded with an estimate that the cost would be $25
billion.*4  Whatever these costs may be, complying with final RCRA
regulations will probably cost less than cleaning up the existing
hazardous waste dumpsites, and almost certainly less than the total
cost to industry of damage suits brought by the victims of incidents
such as the Love Canal.

10.3  MUNICIPAL AND INDUSTRIAL SOLID WASTES

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 10.3

o  Under the assumption that current trends in recycling, materials
   substitution, and economic growth will continue, the annual dis-
   posal requirements for both municipal and industrial solid wastes
   are expected to increase between 1975 and 1990.

o  Most municipal and industrial solid wastes are disposed of on
   land.  However, numerous options are either available or under
4lMaugh, T.H. II, "Hazardous Waste Technology Is Available,"
  Science. Vol. 204, June 1, 1979, pp. 930-933.
^"Hazardous Waste:  Proposed Guidelines and Regulations and
  Proposal on Identification and Listing," Federal Register, Part IV,
  December 18, 1979, pp. 59013-59014.
43Maugh, T.H. II, "Toxic Waste Disposal:  A Growing Problem,"
  Science, Vol. 204, May 25, 1979, p.  819.
^Maugh, T.H. II, "An Environmental Time Bomb Gone Off," Science,
  Vol. 204, May 25, 1979, pp. 820-823.
                                 528

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   study to aid in municipal and industrial waste reduction and re-
   cycling as alternatives to land disposal.

10.3.1  Introduction

     The disposal of municipal and industrial solid wastes is be-
coming more and more difficult in many urban areas.  In the past,
land disposal and ocean dumping have been the major disposal methods.
However, land values are increasing and ocean dumping is to be banned
in 1981, so municipalities and industries are being forced to find
alternative disposal methods.

     The following discussion focuses on the projected generation and
disposal options for municipal and industrial solid wastes, treating
each type of waste separately.  The environmental impacts of the re-
cycling of municipal solid waste are addressed in Section 10.7.

10.3.2  Industrial Solid Wastes

     Various estimates of annual industrial solid waste generation
differ substantially.  Much of this apparent uncertainty is due to
differences in the definitions of industrial solid wastes used in the
studies, and the categories included or excluded.  For the purposes
of this analysis, industrial solid waste is defined as non-product
"solid" material resulting from the production of industrial goods;
specifically excluded are sludges, ash, and liquid wastes'" covered
in the basic "solid waste" definition in Section 10.1.

     Using a specially designed SEAS module, the International Re-
search and Technology Corporation (IR&T) has developed a projection
of annual net4" industrial solid waste generation. '  This figure
was produced under a scenario which assumes continuation of past and
current trends in recycling, materials substitution, and economic
growth.48
^International Research and Technology Corporation, Forecasts of
  the Quantity and Composition of Solid Waste, IRT-19300/R-3,  June
  1979, p. 15.
4"In keeping with general terminology of SEAS, "net" solid wastes
  refers to the amount.of solid waste generated minus the amount of
  waste recovered.
^International Research and Technology Corporation, Forecasts of
  the Quantity and Composition of Solid Waste, IRT-19300/R-3,  June
  1979.  The scenarios developed by IR&T and used in this section are
  not related to the High Growth and Low Growth Scenarios used else-
  where.
48Ibid, p. 23.
                                  529

-------
     The IR&T projections of net industrial solid waste generation in
1971, 1980, and 1990 are presented in Table 10-3.  According to these
projections, the annual requirement for disposing of industrial solid
wastes would show only moderate growth, increasing from 14 million
tons in 1971 to 18 million tons in 1990.  If the projected trend were
to continue to 2000, annual generation of industrial solid waste
would reach about 20 million tons.^9

     Current industrial trends toward recycling and substituting
materials would serve to decrease the annual requirement for dis-
posing of these wastes.  However, the IR&T projections indicate that
these trends will not offset the increases in solid wastes due to the
higher industrial production that would be expected in a healthy
economy (3.4 percent average annual growth in GNP).

     Aside from direct recycling and materials substitution, another
major option for handling industrial solid wastes is that of indus-
trial waste exchanges.  Two types of exchanges are functioning.  The
first is basically an information exchange or clearinghouse.  It
operates by providing information to a company on waste products that
are available and by putting that company in contact with other firms
which have wastes that the company can use or which can use wastes
the company generates.  The second type is a materials exchange,
which buys waste from one company and sells it to another.  There are
numerous variations and combinations of these basic types of ex-
change s.50

     As mentioned in Section 10.2.3, waste exchanges have met with
varying success in this country.  Fourteen information exchanges and
three materials exchanges currently exist in the United States,51
and have considerable potential for reducing industrial solid waste
disposal requirements.  However, many of the exchanges established in
the early 1970s are no longer operating.  The major problem apparent-
ly was uncertainty on the part of industry as to whether information
provided to the exchanges would remain confidential.

10.3.3  Municipal Solid Wastes

     The different materials in municipal solid waste (MSW) are usu-
ally classified into three categories:  post-consumer solid wastes
(both residential and commercial), food wastes, and yard wastes.
        figure is a simplistic extrapolation of the projected trend
  and is provided for comparative purposes only.
        Environmental Protection Agency, Industrial Waste Exchanges:
  Fact  Sheet, SW-688, 1978, p. 1.
51Ibid.
                                  530

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                             TABLE 10-3
PROJECTED ANNUAL NET INDUSTRIAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION BY MATERIAL
                          1971, 1980, 1990
Material
Ferrous Metals
Aluminum
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Plastics
Rubber
Leather
Textiles
Wood
Paper
Paperboard and
Construction
Total

1971
8.39
0.19
0.24
0.11
0.03
0.20
0.19
0.09
0.17
3.23
0.26
0.46

13.56
Quantity
(106 Tons)
1980
8.74
0.31
0.20
0.15
0.04
0.35
0.28
0.10
0.23
3.77
0.33
0.54

15.05

1990
9.41
0.50
0.19
0.21
0.08
0.69
0.39
0.13
0.34
4.42
0.45
0.76

17.57
a)  Net solid waste refers to the amount of solid waste generated minus
    the amount of solid waste recovered.

Source:  International Research and Technology Corporation, Forecasts
         of the Quantity and Composition of Solid Waste, IRT - 19300/R-3,
         June 1979, pp. 33-34.
                                  531

-------
These categories comprise the major portion of what municipal solid
waste disposal facilities handle directly.  Other wastes, including
industrial wastes, agricultural wastes, sewage sludge, and demolition
and construction wastes, may also be disposed of in municipal facil-
ities.-^  These latter wastes are covered in other sections of this
chapter.

     Three of the available estimates of current and future municipal
solid waste generation are summarized in Table 10-4.  The first esti-
mate (IR&T) is derived from the projections of the same scenario de-
scribed for industrial solid wastes (see Section 10.3.2).53  xhe
second estimate was derived by the EPA Office of Solid Waste and
Franklin Associates Ltd. (revised in 1977).  It is expected that EPA
will soon reevaluate these projections.5^  The third estimate was
made by Midwest Research Institute (MRI) for EPA.55

     Each of these three estimates project moderate growth in net MSW
generation between 1975 and 1990.  Both IR&T and EPA expect it to
reach about 1.3 times the 1975 generation by 1990, while MRI expects
it to reach almost 1.5 times the 1975 level by 1990.  Considering the
uncertainties inherent in projecting waste generation and future
recycling, the differences in the estimates are not significant.

     Assuming that the trends projected in each of these studies were
to continue, annual municipal solid waste generation would reach
about 1.6 times the 1975 level (based on the IR&T and EPA projec-
tions) or 1.9 times the 1975 level (based on the MRI study).5°

     Each of these studies used different assumptions about the per-
centage of municipal solid waste that would be recycled.  The assump-
tions used in the IR&T study were equivalent to an assumption that
-"^International Research and Technology Corporation, Forecasts of
  the Quantity and Composition of Solid Waste, IRT-19300/R-3, June
  1979, p. 15.
53Ibid.
5^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Solid Waste,
  Fourth Report to Congress:  Resource Recovery and Waste Reduction,
  OSW-600, 1977, p. 20.
55International Research and Technology Corporation, Forecasts of
  the Quantity and Composition of Solid Waste, IRT-19300/R-3, June
  1979.
5^These estimates are based on a simple extrapolation to 2000 of
  the trends in net generation between 1975 and 1990.  They do not
  represent estimates made by either IR&T, EPA, or MRI but are pro-
  vided for comparative purposes only.
                                  532

-------
                            TABLE 10-4
         ESTIMATES OF NET MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION^
                           1975 and 1990
                            (106 Tons)
Paper
Glass
Metals
Ferrous
Aluminum
Other
Plastics
Rubber and
Leather
Textiles
Wood
Food Wastes
Yard Wastes
Misc. Organics
Total
Pounds/
Person/day

IR&T
37.5
14.2
22.0
(20.1)
( 1.1)
( 0.9)
4.4
2.5
1.9
9.3
21.3
24.8
-
137.9
3.5
1975
EPA
37.2
13.3
12.2
(10.8)
( 0.9)
( C.4)
4.4
3.3
2.1
4.9
22.8
26.0
1.9
128.2
3.2

MRI
42.2
14.6
13.3
(11.7)
( 1.2)
( 0.4)
5.7
3.7
2.1
5.1
23.0
26.3
2.1
138.2
3.5
1990
IR&T
55.4
18.6
22.8
(20.2)
( 1.5)
( 1.2)
9.3
4.7
3.4
9.0
24.4
32.8
-
180.4
4.0
EPA MRI
67.4
17.0
19.4
(16.4)
( 2.3)
( 0.7)
13.2
5.8
3.5
7.4
27.8
36.5
3.3
167 201.2
3.7 4.5
rt
  "Net" solid waste includes all waste generated minus waste
  removed by recovery methods

  Breakdown of 1990 EPA estimate by material not available

Sources:  International Research and Technology Corporation, Forecasts
          of the Quantity and Composition of Solid Waste,
          IRT 19300/R-3,  June 1979, p. 59.
          EPA Office of Solid Waste, Fourth, Report to Congress;   Resource
          Recovery and Waste Reduction, SW-600, 1977, p. 15.
                                 533

-------
the percentage of municipal solid waste recycled would increase from
about 8 percent in 1971 to about 15 percent in 1990.  In contrast,
the assumptions used in the EPA study were equivalent to an assump-
tion that the recycling percentage would increase from 6 percent in
1971 and 1975 to 26 percent in 1990.  The assumptions used in the MRI
study were not available.

     More informative than the overall trend in generation is the
trend in daily per capita generation (see Table 10-4).  Each of the
three projections expects daily per capita net municipal solid waste
(MSW) generation to increase; the annual MSW disposal requirement is
expected to increase even faster than population.  Recycling is not
expected to offset the growth in MSW generation caused by population
growth in any of the three scenarios studied.

     The bulk of municipal solid waste is currently disposed of in
landfills.  Part of this waste is incinerated before landfilling to
reduce the volume.  In many areas of the country, finding the land
needed to dispose of MSW in this fashion is becoming increasingly
difficult.

     Furthermore, many of the existing landfills used to dispose of
MSW will be classified as "open dumps" under the provisions of the
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and therefore must be upgraded
or closed.  The number of open dumps is unknown, but one estimate is
that of 90,000 recognized land disposal sites, only 12,000 could be
classified as "sanitary" or "modified sanitary."-*'  The remainder
would probably be classified as open dumps.  These open dumps pose a
hazard both to human health and to the environment.

     As a result, a great deal of work is being done to develop and
implement alternatives to the landfilling of municipal solid wastes.
One alternative is to reduce the quantity of wastes generated yearly
and hence reduce the landfill requirement.  Waste reduction can be
achieved through numerous methods.  The waste reduction method most
familiar to the general public is the beverage container deposit.
Six states—Oregon, Vermont, Maine, Michigan, Connecticut, and
Iowa—currently have beverage container deposit laws, as well as sev-
eral counties in other states.-*"  The State of Massachusetts may
soon also require a deposit on beverage containers.-*'  EPA issued
^Research and Education Association, Pollution Control Technology,
  New York, 1973, p. 488.
^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality - The
  Ninth Annual Report of the Council on Environmental Quality,
  U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C., December, 1978,
  p. 172.
59Ibid, p. 172.

                                  534

-------
guidelines for beverage containers in September 1976, requiring de-
posi*-" on all beer and soft drinks sold at Federal facilities.60
The   fice of Technology Assessment (OTA) has concluded that beverage
cont  ner deposits laws would achieve, to varying degrees, reductions
in  '  ;ter, reductions in municipal solid wastes, and savings in en-
ergy and materials consumption.

     Other waste reduction techniques include lengthening the life-
times of durable goods (such as appliances), reducing the material
used in a product (smaller automobiles, for example), and reducing
per capita consumption of goods."^

     Resource recovery, both materials and energy, is also being
pursued extensively as an alternative to the landfilling of municipal
solid wastes.  There are basically two different approaches to
resource recovery; source separation and centralized resource re-
covery. 63  Source separation is simply "the setting aside of re-
cyclable materials at their point of generation (e.g., the home, or
place of business) by the generator."  Source separation facilitates
the transportation of the materials to secondary users.  The tech-
niques of source separation are familiar to most people; these
include "curbside collection of newspaper, cans, and glass; commer-
cial recycling of office waste paper, corrugated cardboard, and com-
puter cards;  and community dropoff centers.""

     Source separation has numerous advantages, probably the most
important of which are that it produces a high quality product and
requires little capital investment as compared with other options.
By its very nature, however, it has two serious disadvantages.  It
has a limited potential for recovering materials from municipal solid
wastes and, since it removes the highest quality materials from the
waste, the remaining wastes may have a reduced quality both as a
materials source and as fuel."-'  Nonetheless, OTA estimates that as
much as 27 percent of MSW (by weight) can be recovered using source
separation.66
"^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality -  The
  Ninth Annual Report of the Council on Environmental Quality, U.S.
  Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., December, 1978,
  p. 172.
"^Office of Technology Assessment, Congress of the United States,
  Materials and Energy from Municipal Waste, July 1979, p. 16.
"^U.S.Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Solid Waste,
  Fourth Report to Congress; Resource Recovery and Waste Reduction,
  OSW-600, 1977, p. 21.
"^office of Technology Assessment, Congress of the United States,
  Materials and Energy from Municipal Waste, July 1979, p. 5.
64Ibid, p. 69.
65Ibid, p. 70.
66Ibid, p. 71.
                                 535

-------
     In contrast to source separation, centralized resource recovery
systems recover energy and/or recyclable materials from mixed munici-
pal solid wastes in a central facility."'  Table 10-5 lists the
major types of central resource recovery facilities.  Of these sever-
al are commercially operational; waterwall combustion, small scale
modular incinerators with heat recovery, wet and dry solid fuel
"refuse-derived fuel" (RDF) processes, compostings, magnetic recovery
of ferrous metals, and fiber recovery by wet separation.^8  Numer-
ous centralized resource recovery facilities are now in operation or
under construction in the United States (see Table 10-6).

     Estimates of the reduction in landfill requirements achievable
through centralized resource recovery are uncertain.  OTA estimates
that a resource recovery plant can reduce the landfill requirement of
the MSW processed by 80 to 90 percent by weight.69  Nationally, the
reduction potential would depend on the number of plants.  Further,
OTA estimates that the total energy savings that were available from
centralized resource recovery, in 1975, may have been as high as 2.3
percent of the 1975 United States energy use or about 285 million
barrels of oil.  Further materials recovery could run as high as 90
to 97 percent (ferrous metals) depending on the technique and the
material.7^

     However, there are numerous economic and institutional barriers
to the development of centralized resource recovery systems.7^  In
most parts of the country, landfilling is more economical than cen-
tralized resource recovery.'2  However, in those areas where land
is more expensive the economics of resource recovery may favor this
option over landfilling.  The institutional barriers facing the sys-
tems range from information problems to marketing and implementation
problems. -*

     While waste reduction and recycling are not likely to eliminate
the need for land filling of MSW, active pursuit of these initiatives
could definitely reduce the disposal problems facing many urban
areas.
"'Office of Technology Assessment, Congress of the United States,
  Materials and Energy from Municipal Waste, July 1979, p. 5.
68Ibid, p. 98.
69Ibid, p. 125.
70Ibid, p. 100.
71Ibid, pp. 119-152.
72Ibid, p. 7.
73Ibid, p. 137.
                                 536

-------
                             TABLE 10-5
             MAJOR CENTRALIZED RESOURCE RECOVERY SYSTEMS
             Energy recovery systems

                   Mass combustion of raw MSWa
                        Waterwall incineration
                        Small-scale modular incineration
                           with heat recovery

                   Refuse derived fuel (RDF)a
                        Dry processes
                             Fluff RDF
                             Dustor powered RDF
                             Densified RDF
                        Wet processes

                   Pyrolysis systems
                        Low BTU gas
                        Medium BTU gas
                        Liquid fuel

                   Biological systems
                        Landfill methane recovery
                        Anaerobic digestion
                        Hydrolysis
             Material recovery systems

                   Composting3
                   Ferrous metalsa
                   Aluminum
                   Glass
                   Fiber
                        Wet separation3
                        Dry separation
                   Nonferrous metals
Commercially operational technologies.

Source:  Office of Technology Assessment, Materials and Energy from
         Municipal Waste, U.S. Government Printing Office,
         Washington, D.C., July 1979, p. 95.
                                 537

-------
                                                   TABLE 10-6
                                RESOURCE RECOVERY FACILITIES IN THE UNITED STATES
Ul
UJ
oo
                 Location
                                      Type
 Capacity
(tons/day)
        In Operation:
Altoona, Pa	     Compost                200
Ames, Iowa	     RDF                    400
Baltimore, Md.(D)	     Pyrolysis              700
Baltimore County, Md.(D)	     RDF                    550
Blytheville, Ark	     MCU                     50
Braintree, Mass	     WWC                    240
E. Bridgewater, Mass	     RDF                    160
Franklin, Ohio(D)	     Wet pulp               150
Groveton, N.H	     MCU                     30
Milwaukee, Wis	     RDF                  1,000
Nashville, Tenn	     WWC                    720
Norfolk, Va	     WWC                    360
Oceanside, N.Y	     RWI/WWC                750
Palos Verdes, Calif	     Methane recovery
Saugus, Mass	     WWC                  1,200
Siloam Springs, Ark	     MCU                     20
South Charleston, W.Va.(D)..     Pyrolysis              200
Products/markets
Startup
  date
            Humus                            1963
            RDF-utility,  Fe,  Al             1975
            Steam  heating & cooling,  Fe     1975
            RDF, Fe,  Al,  glass              1976
            Steam  process                   1975
            Steam  process                   1971
            RDF-utility                     1974
            Fiber,  Fe,  glass, Al            1971
            Steam  process                   1975
            RDF-utility,  paper Fe,  Al       1977
            Steam  heating & cooling         1974
            Steam  (Navy base)               1967
            Steam                          1965/74
            Gas-utility & Fe                 1975
            Steam  process                   1976
            Steam  process                   1975
            Gas, Fe                         1974
                                                   (Continued)

-------
                                           TABLE 10-6  (CONCLUDED)
Oi
CO
Location
Under construction; startup:
Akron, Ohio 	
Bridgeport, Conn 	
Chicago 111 	
Hemps tead, N.Y 	
Lane County , Ore 	
Monroe County , N.Y 	
Mountain View, Calif . (D) ....
New Orleans, La. (D) 	
Niagara Falls , N.Y 	
North Little Rock Ark 	
Portsmouth Va 	
San Diego, Calif. (D) 	

Typea
RDF/WWC
RDF
RDF
Wet pulp/WWC
RDF/WWC
RDF
Methane
Recovery
Materials
RDF/WWC
MCU
WWC
Pyrolysis

Capacity
(tons /day)
1,000
1,800
1,000
2,000
750
2,000
650
2,200
100
160
200

Products /Markets
Steam heating and cooling
RDF utility, Fe, Al, glass
RDF-utility, Fe
Electricity, Fe, Al, glass
RDF-institution, Fe
RDF-utility, Fe, Al, glass
Gas/Utility
Nonferrous, Fe, glass, paper
Steam industry, Fe
Steam process
Steam loop
Liquid Fuel/utility, Fe, Al,
glass
Startup
Date
1978
1978
1976
1978
1978
1978
1977
1976

1977
1976
1977

       RDF =  refuse-derived  fuel; WWC = waterwall  combustion; RWI =  refractory wall  incincerator with
       waste-heat boiler; MCU = modular combustion unit; RDF/WWC = waterwall  combustion  using  processed

       waste; D  = Pilot  or demonstration  facility.


      Source:  Office  of Technology Assessment, Materials and Energy From Municipal  Waste,  U.  S. Govern-
               ment  Printing Office, Washington, D. C. ,  July 1979, page 97.

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10.4  MINING AND RELATED WASTES

                      HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 10.4

o  Annual generation of mining-related wastes is expected to at least
   double by 2000 and land disposal is expected to remain the major
   disposal method used.  However, an increasing portion of the
   mining-related wastes may be backfilled because of the require-
   ments of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act.

o  Oil shale mining and retorting could generate as much as 1.5 bil-
   lion tons of solid wastes in 2000, increasing annual mining-
   related solid waste generation by 25 percent.  The disposal of oil
   shale related wastes may become a problem even though the major
   portion is expected to be backfilled.

10.4.1  Introduction

     Mining-related wastes include overburden or waste rock, tailings
or beneficiation wastes, and miscellaneous wastes.  Overburden con-
sists of the bedrock, soil, and other unproductive materials that
must be removed from a mine along with the ore.  Tailings consist of
the waste material discarded during ore processing.  About 65 percent
of all mineral mining solid waste is overburden, 32 percent is tail-
ings, and 3 percent other mine wastes.'^

     These proportions are national averages.  Actual proportions are
site-specific and also depend heavily on whether the mine is under-
ground or surface type.  For example, tailings generally account for
about 80 percent of the total solid wastes from underground
mines.'^

     Currently the greater portion of mining-related solid wastes are
disposed of on land, a practice which results in numerous adverse
environmental and health-related effects.  Whether such practices
will continue in the future in light of the Resource Conservation and
Recovery Act,'" the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act,''
and the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act™ is unknown.
7^PEDCo Environmental Inc., Study of Adverse Effects of Solid Waste
  from All Mining Activities on the Environment, Draft, prepared for
  EPA Office of Solid Waste, 1979, p. xxxi.
75Ibid.
^Mining wastes have temporarily been classified as special wastes
  under RCRA.  Federal Register. December 18, 1978, p.58902.
77Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977, PL 95-87.
78Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act of 1978, PL 95-604.
                                 540

-------
However, these acts should result in a lessening of the adverse envi-
ronmental and human health effects of land disposal of mine wastes.

      The following discussion of the generation and disposal of min-
ing wastes deals first with ores and mineral fuels currently mined in
the United States.  The mining and retorting of oil shale and result-
ing waste generation are then discussed.

10.4.2  Mining Wastes

     Introduction

     The mining of metallic and nonmetallic ores and mineral fuels is
the largest single source of solid waste in the United States.  The
following discussion centers around the trends in mining waste genera-
tion, and current and future disposal practices for those ores and
mineral fuels currently being mined.

     Trends

     Current estimates of the annual generation of mining solid
wastes range from 2.3 billion tons to 3.3 billions tons.'^  Fur-
ther, an estimated 30 billion tons of solid wastes from mining had
accumulated at mining sites by 1975.  This estimate is based on
annual solid waste production statistics rather than directly on dis-
posal data, but it does serve to illustrate the magnitude of the
accumulation.°^

     Using estimates of annual ore production and ratio of ore to
solid waste, PEDCo Environmental Inc. has projected annual mining
solid waste generation through the year 2000.°1 The annual ore pro-
duction projections made by PEDCo are summarized in Table 10-7, and
the waste generation projections are shown in Table 10-8.  PEDCo1s
estimate of 1975 generation is 2.3 billion tons.
79PEDCo Environmental Inc., Study of Adverse Effects of Solid Waste
  from All Mining Activities on the Environment, Draft, prepared for
  EPA Office of Solid Waste, 1979, p. xxxi.  Also, U.S. Environ-
  mental Protection Agency, Office of Water and Waste Management, EPA
  Activities Under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act, Fiscal
  Year 1978, SW-755, Washington, D.C., March 1979, pp. 1-2.
8&PEDCo Environmental Inc., Study of Adverse Effects of Solid Waste
  from All Mining Activities on the Environment, Draft, prepared for
  EPA Office of Solid Waste, 1979, p. xxxii.
81Ibid.
                                 541

-------
                            TABLE 10-7
       PROJECTED ANNUAL ORE PRODUCTION  BY SELECTED INDUSTRIES
                  Crude Ore
                 to Marketable
Crude Ore Production
     (106 Tons)
Industry
Copper
Iron Ore
Uranium
Phosphate Rock
Coal3
Other
Total
Product Ratio
193.5 : 1
2.8 : 1
630.9 : 1
3.8 : 1
NA
NA
NA
1975
270
240
7
190
650
1890
3250
1985
480
260
23
300
1000
3100
5170
2000
730
320
38
320
1660
5260
8340
NA  -  Not Applicable

Total for all mineral fuels - anthracite, lignite,  and bituminous coal.

Source:  PEDCo Environment Inc.,  Study of Adverse  Effects of Solid
         Waste from All Mining Activities on the Environment, Draft,
         prepared for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of
         Solid Waste,  1979.
                                 542

-------
                                 TABLE  10-8
             PROJECTED ANNUAL GENERATION OF MINING SOLID  WASTES  BY
                              SELECTED INDUSTRIES
                        1975
1985
2000
Industry
Copper
Iron Ore
Uranium
Ln
*• Phosphate
Rock
Coala
Otherb
Total
Waste to Quantity Percent of
Ore Ratio (106 Tons) Total
3.56
1.73
23.65
1.9
0.17
NA
NA
KTotal for tailings
^Includes only metal
Source :
960
410
160
350
110
330
2,300
from bituminous and
and nonmetal ores .
PEDCo Environmental Inc., Studj
Activities
on the Environment,
41
18
7
15
5
14
100
lignite
Percent of Percent of
1975 Value Total
190
110
330
160
160
190
180
coal only.
y of Adverse Effects of S
Draft,
prepared for the
43
11
13
14
4
15
100

_d Wat
Percent of Percent of
1975 Value Total
270
130
550
170
260
270
250

s from All
45
9
15
10
5
15
100

Mining
^ironn ital Protection Agency
Office of Solid Waste,  1979.

-------
     This estimate unquestionably is low, since it is known that the
coal industry as a whole generates more mining solid wastes than all
other mining industries combined, ^ and Table 10-8 is based on only
partial data for the coal industry.8-*  Aside from coal, the four
major industry sources were copper, iron, uranium, and phosphate rock
mines, which together generated almost three-fourths of the listed
1975 total.

     The uranium and phosphate rock industries are of major impor-
tance not only because of their large volumes of waste but also be-
cause mining waste from these industries has been declared a special
waste under RCRA.8^

     Annual generation of mining solid wastes is expected to increase
significantly by 2000, as shown in Table 10-8.  Total generation is
expected to exceed 4 billion tons by 1985 and reach almost 6 billion
tons by 2000.  The most rapid growth is expected by 1985.  Since coal
is expected to be a major source of energy in the future, and the cov-
erage of the coal industry is incomplete in the PEDCo report, these
projections of mining waste generation are definitely low.

     Using a different definition of mining wastes than that used in
the PEDCo report, estimates of the trend in the annual requirement
for coal mining waste disposal are available from SEAS.  These esti-
mates indicate that annual coal mining waste generation is expected
to rise to about 2.8 times the 1975 level in the High Growth Scenario
and 2.1 times the 1975 level in the Low Growth Scenario.

     The copper industry, according to the Table 10-8 projections, is
expected to remain the largest single source of mining solid waste,
other than coal mining, increasing generation to 2.7 times the 1975
level by 2000.  The iron ore industry, on the other hand, is expected
to exhibit a significantly slower increase in generation of mining
wastes than the other industries, reaching only 1.3 times its 1975
generation in 2000.

     The uranium industry, as illustrated in Table 10-8, is expected
to show the greatest relative increase in annual mining waste
82PEDCo Environmental Inc., Study of Adverse Effects of Solid Waste
  from All Mining Activities on the Environment, Draft, prepared for
  EPA Office of Solid Waste, 1979, p. xxviii.
S^This estimate covers tailings only.  Data for overburden and
  development waste rock are not available for the coal mining
  industry.
^"Hazardous Waste: Proposed Guidelines and Regulations and Propo-
  sal on Identification and Listing," Federal Register, December 18,
  1978, Part IV, pp. 58946-58959.

                                  544

-------
generation, increasing by a factor of about 5 between 1975 and 2000.
This increase is lower than those projected in the SEAS High Growth
and Low Growth Scenarios, which have factors of 7.5 and 6.0, respec-
tively.

     Since the PEDCo study assumes that waste to ore ratios of all
industries remain constant at 1975 levels, these increases directly
reflect increases in ore production.  The validity of this assumption
is uncertain, since as ore demand increases, a larger portion of
marginal ores may have to be mined in some industries.  This could
serve to increase the amount of waste generated per unit quantity of
ore produced.  Whether the resulting increase in solid waste genera-
tion would be significant is not known.

     Current and Future Disposal Techniques

     The disposal options for overburden and tailings are rather
restricted.  Table 10-9 summarizes the methods currently employed in
the disposal of mining solid wastes.

     Ninety percent of the overburden and waste rock is disposed of
in piles on or near the mine site.  The remaining 10 percent is
either backfilled into the mine or used for on-site construction or
holding pond covers.  Several factors, particularly transportation
difficulties, restrict off-site utilization.  At present, the amount
of off-site use of overburden and waste rock is "minuscule."

     Economic and physical factors currently favor piling of over-
burden and waste rock rather than backfilling in many mines, particu-
larly in eastern surface coal mines.  However, the implementation of
the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act8" may cause an
increase in the use of backfilling as a disposal method, at least in
surface coal mining.

     The overwhelming proportion (99+ percent) of tailings is dis-
posed of in holding ponds.  Many of the ponds have clay liners to
prevent leaching as the water in the tailings evaporates.  When the
pond is filled, mine overburden may be used to cover it.
8->PEDCo Environmental Inc., Study of Adverse Effects of Solid Waste
  from All Mining Activities on the Environment, Draft, prepared for
  EPA Office of Solid Waste, 1979, p. xliii.
86Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977, PL 95-87.
87PEDCo Environmental Inc., Study of Adverse Effects of Solid Waste
  from All Mining Activities on the Environment, Draft, prepared for
  EPA Office of Solid Waste, 1979, p. xliii.


                                 545

-------
                          TABLE 10-9
              DISPOSAL METHODS FOR MINING WASTES
Type of Solid Waste

Overburden and
waste rock
      Disposal Method
Tailings from the mills of
both underground and surface
mines.
Miscellaneous wastes
Stockpiles adjacent to
surface and underground
mines and on the outside
slopes of open pit mines
(90 percent)

Backfilling of previously
excavated areas adjacent to
the active overburden removal
at surface mines.  Back-
filling of underground mines
with waste rock (0-10 percent)

Utilization as construction
material (0-10 percent)

Tailings pond (99+ percent)

Backfilling underground
mines either by sluicing or
truck hauling.

Utilization as construction
material.

Combinination with overburden,
waste rock, and/or tailings.

Separate disposal in a sani-
tary landfill on or off site

Lake/marine disposal
Source:  PEDCo Environmental Inc.,  Study of Adverse Effects  of
         Solid Wastes from All Mining Activities on the Environ-
         ment, Draft, prepared for U.S.  Environmental Protection
         Agency, Office of Solid Waste,  1979, pp. xxxix - xLi.
                             546

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     The disposal of uranium mill tailings is controlled under the
Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act.****  This Act requires
that uranium mill tailings be disposed of in a manner safe for human
health and the environment.

      Alternative disposal methods of tailings are also limited.  Hy-
draulic backfilling of tailings has been used in some mines but there
are many disadvantages to this method.  Tailings may also be used in
highway construction, both on and off site, antiskid material, and
concrete and asphalt paving aggregates.  However, many of the factors
restricting use of overburden also restrict the use of tailings.

10.4.3  Oil Shale Wastes

     Introduction

     Two forms of solid wastes appear as major by-products of oil
shale production:  mine overburden and spent oil shale.  Surface
overburden at an oil shale mine ranges between 100 and 800 feet
thick.&9  it has been estimated that a typical 66,000 ton per day
(raw shale) surface mine would produce 71,000 tons per day of over-
burden requiring disposal.90  However, the actual amount of over-
burden generated is highly site-specific.  Currently the intention is
to backfill all overburden.

     Spent shale is the main solid waste byproduct of surface oil
shale retorting and upgrading.  According to current plans, 60 per-
cent of the spent oil shale would be returned to the mine site."I
The remainder would probably be deposited in surface holding ponds.
These disposal plans may be subject to change, however, as spent oil
shale may be declared a hazardous waste on the basis of the potential
of spent oil shale wastes to leach numerous dissolved solids.

     In contrast to surface retorting, true in situ oil shale proces-
ses extract the oil from the shale underground.  In doing so, they
produce no spent oil shale as a waste requiring disposal.
88Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act of 1978,  PL 95-604.
°"The MITRE Corporation, Environmental Data for Energy Technology
  Policy Analysis, Volume III:  Fossil Fuels, Draft MTR-7992,  May
  1979, p. III-3.
90y.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Energy From the West,
  Energy Resource Development Systems Report, Volume III:  Oil Shale,
  EPA-60018-79-0606, March 1979, p. 96.
      MITRE Corporation, Environmental Data for Energy Technology
  Policy Analysis, Volume III:  Fossil Fuels, Draft MTR-7992,  May
  1979, p. III-3.
                                 547

-------
     The problem of safely disposing of oil shale wastes from surface
operations may enhance the market position of in situ techniques.
Therefore, the trends reported here, which assume limited in situ re-
torting, may significantly overestimate oil shale waste generation.

     Trends

     In 1975, oil shale was not being processed commercially in the
United States.  Oil shale production in the Mountain Region (Federal
Region VIII) is projected to reach 0.9 quadrillion Btu (or quads)
annually in 1985, 2.1 quads in 1990, and 5.4 quads in 2000, under the
SEAS High Growth Scenario assumptions.  In the SEAS Low Growth
Scenario, oil shale development is projected to lag by about five to
10 years, with production growing to 0.1 quad in 1985, 0.9 quad in
1990, and 2.2 quads in 2000.  Within High Growth levels of produc-
tion, an increasing portion is assumed to come from in situ oil shale
techniques:  11 percent in 1985, 15 percent in 1990, and 20 percent
in 2000.  Under Low Growth assumptions, in situ techniques are not
implemented until 2000, when it is assumed that 10 percent of oil
shale would be processed using such techniques.

     The oil sliale production levels projected in both scenarios
would result in significant production of solid waste by this indus-
try (Figure 10-2).  Wastes would become substantial by 1985 under
High Growth and by 1990 under Low Growth.

     Using the oil shale production levels projected in the High
Growth Scenario and assuming that a 66,000 ton per day (raw shale)
surface mine would generate 71,000 tons per day of overburden, annual
overburden generation is expected to reach about 150 million tons in
1985 and almost 800 million tons in 2000.  Similarly, using Low
Growth oil shale production projections, annual overburden generation
is expected to be over 165 million tons in 1990 and over 365 million
tons in 2000.

     Annual production of spent shale is projected to reach 132 mil-
lion tons in 1985 under High Growth assumptions and 148 million tons
in 1990 under Low Growth assumptions.  By 2000 the figure would reach
over 700 million tons in High Growth and about half that amount in
the Low Growth Scenario.

     Disposal of Oil Shale Wastes

     As mentioned, it is anticipated that about 60 percent of the
spent shale will be disposed of in the mine itself, that is, back-
filled.  It is also expected that, after an initial delay, ranging
from 1 to 30 years depending on the type of surface mine, most of the
overburden will be backfilled.  The remainder of the wastes will be
disposed of in either landfills or holding ponds.

                                  548

-------
  1,000
£   900 -
f-t
o
E-

c   800
    700


    600
>-
<   500 -
    400


    300


    200


    100
                 Spent  Oil Shale (as waste)
                 Overburden
                             1,500
              None
            I    I    I

                                                        %:•;
                                                        • •
                              •,*.
                              • •
                                                        • •
                                                        .V,
              1975
High  Low
  1985
High  Low
  1990
High
  2000
Low
                             FIGURE 10-2
                     TRENDS IN GENERATION OF
                         OIL SHALE WASTES
                         1975,1985,1990, 2000
                                549

-------
     Precautions must be taken in disposing of spent shale.   Spent
shale contains numerous compounds that could contaminate ground and
surface waters through leaching or runoff.  In contrast, the  disposal
of overburden is not expected to be a problem in this respect.

10.5  SECONDARY SOLID WASTES

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 10.5

o  Secondary solid wastes are expected to become more and more
   important over the next several decades as air and water pollution
   control becomes more effective.  These solid wastes are pollutants
   removed from wastestreams, many times in a concentrated form.
   Safe disposal is particularly urgent for those secondary solid
   wastes identified as hazardous under the Resource Conservation and
   Recovery Act.

o  As with many other solid wastes, the primary method used to dis-
   pose of secondary wastes is land disposal.   Even though there are
   a number of alternatives (the number depending on what the waste
   is), it is anticipated that land disposal will continue to be the
   major method used.

10.5.1  Introduction

     Secondary solid wastes are those wastes created by the removal
of air and water pollutants from wastestreams.    The treatment and
safe disposal of these solid wastes represents the final link in a
chain of efforts to improve the quality of the environment.^2

     For this analysis,  the pollutant removed by the control equip-
ment that generates the solid waste is called the "associated primary
pollutant."  Examples of secondary solid wastes include municipal
sewage sludge and sludge generated by sulfur oxides scrubbers.

     Three types of secondary wastes are considered:

     o  Noncombustible solid waste.   A wide variety of waste by-
        products, including particulates captured by control equip-
        ment in the wastestreams of coal combustion facilities and
y^There is a question as to whether a safe disposal of secondary
  solid wastes is feasible.  If not, the question becomes whether the
  pollutant associated with the waste is less of a danger in the
  wastestream.  The intermedial relationships between pollutants
  that arise due to regulations are now being examined by EPA, but
  the data necessary to make comparisons are sorely lacking.  As a
  result, questions of this nature cannot be addressed in this
  chapter.

                                 550

-------
        cement factories.  Since bottom ash is disposed of along with
        fly ash in most combustion facilities, trends in its genera-
        tion are discussed with captured fly ash even though bottom
        ash is not a secondary solid waste.

     o  Industrial sludge.  Industrial wastewater treatment sludges
        and the sludges generated by the removal of sulfur oxides and
        particulates from stack gases by wet scrubbers.'-'

     o  Municipal sewage sludge.  The sludge generated by the removal
        of suspended solids and organic matter in municipal sewage
        treatment facilities.

     The generation of each type of secondary solid waste raises the
problem of adequate disposal.  Present methods generally involve some
form of treatment (i.e., dewatering and reduction) and eventual
removal to a holding pond or landfill.  Electric utilities and some
other industries usually dispose of solid waste on or near the plant
site, eliminating the need to transport the waste—which is, in
general, an expensive step.

     However, the leachate from disposal sites of many of these
wastes may contain toxic and otherwise dangerous compounds and ele-
ments, such as arsenic, cadmium, and lead.  As a result, the ground
and surface waters of the surrounding areas may become contaminated.
Further, certain of these wastes may promote the growth of infectious
bacteria and disease-carrying insects.

     Because of these factors, some of these wastes may be declared
special or hazardous under the provisions of the Resource Conserva-
tion and Recovery Act.  The impacts of such a declaration depend on
the waste category and the strictness of the regulations that may be
promulgated in the future.  At a minimum, such a declaration will
restrict the methods used to dispose of many of these wastes.

     Because of the preliminary status of the RCRA regulations, they
have not yet been integrated into SEAS.  However, EPA regulations on
air and water pollutant releases are incorporated into the system.
As discussed in Chapters 4 and 6, the model's projections are predi-
cated on full compliance with these regulations by industry by cer-
tain deadlines.  Since the generation of secondary solid wastes
depends entirely on the quantity of the associated primary pollutant
'^Actual moisture content of sludge varies considerably.  Flue gas
  desulfurization sludges, for example, range between 35 and 75 per-
  cent moisture.  Municipal sewage sludge may be as high as 99 per-
  cent moisture.  The generation of both industrial and municipal
  sludges is reported in dry tons.

                                551

-------
removed from the wastestream, the validity of the projections of
future secondary solid waste generation is very sensitive to the full
compliance factor.  Nonetheless, since full compliance with these
regulations would result in the maximum amount of secondary solid
wastes being generated, these projections are a reasonable basis for
analysis.

     Several general scenario assumptions affect secondary solid
waste generation.  The assumption having the greatest effect is that
the United States will make increasing use of its coal supplies.
Significant increases in the use of coal as a primary fuel source are
projected in both High and Low Growth Scenarios.  More and more of
this coal is expected to come from western coal mines, almost
one-half by 2000 as compared with 14 percent in 1975.  It is further
assumed that by 2000, half of all coal mined annually will be
cleaned.  Thus the country is projected to depend more and more on
cleaner coal.

     The amount of a secondary solid waste generated depends on the
amount of the associated primary pollutant removed from the
wastestream.  SEAS uses simple multipliers to convert the estimates
of the captured primary pollutant into estimates of net solid wastes,
taking into account such factors as moisture content and chemical
relationships.

     Since these factors vary from waste to waste, a different multi-
plier is used for each waste.  For example, the multiplier assumed
for scrubber sludge is 2.55, which means that 2.55 dry tons of scrub-
ber sludge are generated for each ton of sulfur oxide removed.''*
Removal multipliers of 1.0 for dry particulates and total suspended
solids (TSS), 0.3 for BOD, and 2.55 for wet particulates are used in
SEAS.  Thus the validity of the trends in the secondary solid waste
projections depends on both the accuracy of these multipliers and the
quality of the associated primary pollutant data.  (see Chapters 4
and 6 for information about sources and quality of these air and
water pollutant data.)

     The industry coverage for secondary solid wastes associated with
air pollutant controls is good.  Because of the complexity of indus-
trial wastewater treatment'technologies, the coverage of secondary
solid wastes from such sources is poor.  Estimates for municipal
sewage sludge are based on one of the best current sources on the
      use of this multiplier is equivalent to assuming that all
  SOX scrubbers are nonregenerable.
                                  552

-------
future treatment of municipal sewage,95 so the quality of these
projections is considered reasonably high.

     For each type of secondary solid waste studied, both national
and regional generation trends are discussed.  Major industrial
sources are identified and causes for change in the generation by
those sources are analyzed.  The impacts and implications of these
generation trends on environmental quality are assessed in Section
10.7.

10.5.2  Noncombustible Solid Wastes

                    HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 10.5.2

o  Annual generation of noncombustible solid waste is expected to
   increase by 2000 to over three times the 1975 level under con-
   ditions of high economic growth and 2.6 times this level with low
   economic growth.  Under the Resource Conservation and Recovery
   Act, much of this waste is classified as "special waste" (e.g.,
   ash from coal combustion and dust from cement production).

o  Most of the noncombustible solid wastes are generated in the Mid-
   dle Atlantic, Southeast, Great Lakes, and South Central Regions.

o  Current disposal generally involves landfill or ponding, a prac-
   tice that is expected to continue.  However, much of this type of
   waste could be recycled, depending on demand for products such as
   lightweight fly ash concrete aggregates.

     Introduction

     Noncombustible solid waste (NCSW) is comprised mainly of cap-
tured particulates and bottom ash from combustion processes and cap-
tured dust from numerous production activities.  At present, NCSW is
disposed of in various ways, but mostly by some form of landfill or
ponding.  These procedures may change, since at least two major types
of NCSW have tentatively been designated by EPA as special wastes:
ash from coal-fired utilities and primary cement kiln dust. "  The
trends in the generation and disposal of these and other noncombusti-
ble solid wastes are discussed in this section.
"-"U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cost Estimates for
  Construction of Publicly Owned Wastewater Treatment Facilities,
  Needs Survey 1976, EPA 44019-76-010 (MCD-48A), 1977.
"""Hazardous Waste:  Proposed Guidelines and Regulations and Pro-
  posal on Identification and Listing," Federal Register, Part IV,
  December 18, 1978, p. 59015.
                                  553

-------
     Trends in Generation of Noncombustible Solid Wastes

     The projected national trends in generation of NCSW are sum-
marized in Table 10-10, which also identifies the major contributing
industries.  In 1975, ash removal in coal-fired electric utilities
accounted for over half of the 82 million tons of NCSW produced.
Dust control in the primary cement industry generated another 19 per-
cent, while only two other industries, asphalt and petroleum refining
and storage (8 percent each), contributed more than 3 percent to the
national total NCSW generation in that
     Generation of NCSW is projected to almost double from 1975 to
1985 and to triple by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  That is,
annual production of NCSW would increase from 82 million tons in 1975
to 158 million tons in 1985 and 248 million tons in 2000.  Signifi-
cant but less rapid increase is projected in the Low Growth Scenario
(generation of 140 million tons in 1985 and 210 million tons in
2000).

     The major share of noncombustible solid waste is expected to
result from the removal of particulates and bottom ash by coal-fired
electric utilities (see Figure 10-3).  Because of the assumed
national trend toward greater use of coal and because of more strin-
                                     p         q o
gent requirements for removal of particulates, ° annual production
of NCSW by coal-fired electric utilities is projected to increase to
260 percent of the 1975 level, or to approximately 110 million tons,
by 2000 in the High Growth Scenario (NCSW would increase to 220 per-
cent of the 1975 level by 2000 in the Low Growth Scenario).  Without
these regulations, the major portion of this 110 million tons would
be released to the atmosphere as particulates.

     Controlling kiln dust in the primary cement industry, as assumed
in both scenarios, would produce about two and one-half times the
1975 amount of NCSW.  Due to a slight improvement in the control of
airborne particulates assumed for this industry, this growth in NCSW
slightly exceeds the projected growth in cement production.  Under
state regulations (SIPs) this industry was required to remove about
97 percent of the particulates from gaseous wastestreams.  A more
stringent requirement — 99.7 percent removal — is imposed by the New
      to an oversight in the documentation of SEAS, the composition
  of the NCSW from petroleum refining and storage as interpreted in
  SEAS is unknown.  It probably represents captured particulates.
      Source Performance Standards (NSPS) and Best Available Con-
  trol Technology (BACT) regulations.
                                 554

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                                                    TABLE 10-10
                                TRENDS IN GENERATION OF NONCOMBUSTIBLE SOLID WASTES
                                         BY MAJOR CONTRIBUTING INDUSTRIES
                                                      1985
2000
1975a



y1 Industry
Coal Fired
utilities
Cement

Other
Total
Quan-
tity
(106
Tons)

41.7
15.9

24.2
81.8
Percent
of
National
Totala

51
19

30
100
High Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value

180
220
\
210
190
Percent
of
National
Total3

46
22

32
100
Low Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value

150
220

170
170
Percent
of
National
Totala

45
25

30
100
High Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value

260
360

340
300
Percent
of
National
Total3

44
23

33
100
Low Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value

220
350

260
260
Percent
of
National
Total3

43
26

30
100
Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.

-------
      3 -
_!
<

C
o
F-
<
2
F-
Other Industries

Petroleum Refining
    and Storage

Asphalt

Cement

New Coal-Fired
  Utilities
Old Coal-Fired
  Utilities
                 1975
                High  Low
                  1985
High  Low
  2000
        NOTE:  1975 national total =81.8 million tons.
                            FIGURE 10-3
                     TRENDS IN GENERATION OF
                  NONCOMBUSTIBLE SOLID WASTE
                       BY MAJOR INDUSTRIES
                           1975,1985, 2000
                                  556

-------
Source Performance Standards.99  ^s a result, this industry is ex-
pected to account for about one-fourth of the national NCSW genera-
tion by 2000.

     Several other activities are projected to contribute to the
higher NCSW production.  These activities include particulate control
in asphalt and steel production, industrial combustion of coal, and
the production of synthetic fuels from coal.  Although individually
these activities would not be major contributors to the national
totals of NCSW, they could be responsible for portions of regional
increases.

     The national trends in generation of NCSW are generally repeated
on the regional level.  The NCSW increases in each region, along with
regional distribution of the national total of NCSW, are shown in
Table 10-11.  In 1975, four regions—the Middle Atlantic, Southeast,
Great Lakes, and South Central (Federal Regions III, IV, V, and VI)—
together were estimated to have accounted for 80 percent of the
national NCSW generation.

       In three of these four regions (Federal Regions III, IV, and
V), most of the NCSW is generated by four industries:  coal-fired
utilities and the cement, asphalt, and steel industries.  The coal-
fired utilities and cement industries are projected to account for at
least 70 percent of the NCSW generation in each of these three
regions throughout the 1975 to 2000 period (Figure 10-4).  In Federal
Region VI, although petroleum refining and storage and the cement
industry were the major contributors of NCSW as of 1975, coal combus-
tion is expected to become.dominant by 2000.

     The aggregate NCSW generation within these four regions is
expected to increase somewhat less rapidly than the national total.
This is due primarily to a projection of less rapid growth in coal
use in Federal Regions III, IV, and V than in the nation as a whole.
Thus, the proportion of the annual national NCSW from these four
regions is expected to decline from 80 percent shown in 1975 to about
70 percent for the period 1985 through 2000.

     However, in the South Central Region (Federal Region VI) the
trend is different, and much more substantial increases in NCSW
generation are anticipated by 2000.   In that region, which accounted
for 13 percent of the national NCSW generation in 1975, NCSW genera-
tion is projected to reach more than five times 1975 levels by 2000
under High Growth assumptions, and four times 1975 levels under Low
Growth.
"Adapted for use in SEAS from Title 40, Chapter 1, Subpart F,
  Section 60.60-60.64 of the Code of Federal Regulations.
                                  557

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                                                                    TABLE 10-11

                                        TRENDS IN REGIONAL GENERATION OF NONCOMBUSTIBLE SOLID WASTE
                                                                    1985
2000
Ln
Ui
oo





I.
II.

III.

IV.
V.
VI.

VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.





Region
New England
New York-
New Jersey
Middle
Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South
Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total

Quan-
tity
(106
Tons)
0.7

2. 1

13.3
19.9
20.3

10.5
4.8
4.0
4.9
1.2
81.8
1975a
Percent
of
National
Total
1

3

16
24
25

13
6
5
6
2
100
High
Percent
of
1975
Value
380

190

140
140
180

290
220
300
250
390
190
Growth
Percent
of
National
Total a
2

3

12
17
22

19
7
8
8
3
100
Low
Percent
of
1975
Value
420

230

130
120
170

220
190
270
230
260
170
Growth
Percent
of
National
Total a
2

3

12
17
24

17
7
8
8
2
100
High
Percent
of
1975
Value
630

270

180
240
210

540
340
550
420
780
300
Growth
Percent
of
National
Total3
2

3

10
19
17

23
7
9
8
4
100
Low
Percent
of
1975
Value
730

320

160
180
200

420
300
430
350
540
260
Growth
Percent
of
National
Total3
2

3

10
18
20

21
7
8
8
3
100
                    Rounding may  create inconsistencies  in addition.

-------
   0.8 -
   0.7 -
_>  0.6-4
I
1 0.5 H
fc  0.4H
o
H
U
  0.3 -
  0.2 -
  0.1-
                             Other Industries

                             Coal Syn-Fuels

                             Cement

                             Coal Combustion
        1975  High Low
              2000
1975
     High Low
       2000
1V75  Hign Low
       2000
1975  High Low
       2000
1975  High Low
       2000
          REGION 1
         New England
  REGION II
  New York -
  New Jersey
  REGION III
    Middle
   At lantic
  REGION IV
  Southeast
   REGION V
 Great Lakes
      NOTE:  1975 national total =81.8 million  tons.

                                 FIGURE 10-4
                   TRENDS IN REGIONAL GENERATION OF
                      NONCOMBUSTIBLE SOLID WASTE
                           BY MAJOR INDUSTRIES
                                1975 AND 2000
                                      559

-------
  REGION VI
South Central
                        FIGURE 10-4
                        CONTINUED
                             560

-------
     Trends for the major industries generating NCSW within Federal
Region VI are shown in Table 10-12.  Overall electric power genera-
tion in this region is expected to more than double in both scenarios
by 2000.  Coal-fired power plants, which accounted for about 10 per-
cent of the electricity produced in Federal Region VI in 1975, exhi-
bit marked growth in power output in both scenarios.  By 2000,
coal-fired utilities are projected to provide about 55 percent of the
electricity consumed in this region under High Growth assumptions
(about 40 percent in Low Growth).  Further, coal is expected to pro-
vide about 40 percent of the industrial combustion demand by 2000 in
the High Growth Scenario (30 percent under Low Growth) as it is
increasingly substituted for natural gas.  This represents a signi-
ficant increase over 1975 industrial use (which was about 2 percent
of the total).

     This projected high increase in the use of coal in electric
power generation and in industrial combustion facilities is the rea-
son for the projection noted earlier, that the level of NCSW genera-
tion in Federal Region VI will grow faster than in Federal Regions
III, IV, and V.  Noncombustible solid waste levels from coal combus-
tion in Federal Region VI are projected to rise from 1.3 million tons
in 1975 to 16 million tons in 1985 and almost 33 million tons by 2000
in the High Growth Scenario.  Under Low Growth assumptions, NCSW
generation from coal combustion increases less rapidly, reaching 10
million tons in 1985 and about 23 million tons by 2000.

     The primary cement industry is also expected to provide a sig-
nificant portion of the anticipated increases in NCSW generation in
Region VI, accounting for 25 percent of the total in both scenarios
throughout the 1975 to 2000 period.

     Disposal of Noncombustible Solid Wastes

     This discussion will be limited to the disposal of NCSW genera-
ted by the two major sources identified in the preceding section:
coal-fired power plants and the primary cement industry.   Most of the
techniques these industries use apply to any industry.

     The primary methods coal-fired power plants use to dispose of
NCSW are ponding and landfill.   According to a recent study, 50 per-
cent of the fly ash and 30 percent of the bottom ash were disposed of
in landfills in 1976,  and 35 percent of the fly ash and 45 percent of
the bottom ash were disposed of in ponds.^®®  The remainder of the
ash is disposed of in some other manner or is re-used.  The
          Corporation, Study of Nonhazardous Wastes from Coal-
   Fired Utilities, Draft, DCN-200-18/-41-08, prepared for EPA Indus-
   trial Environmental Research Laboratory, RTF, December 1978, pp.
   108-112.

                                  561

-------
                                                                  TABLE  10-12
                                             TRENDS IN GENERATION OF NONCOMBUSTIBLE SOLID WASTE
                                                      BY MAJOR CONTRIBUTING INDUSTRIES
                                                                  REGION VI
                                                                  1985
                                                                                                         2000
to
*"J High Growth
Industry
Petroleum Refining
Storage
Cement
Coal Fired Elec-
tric Utilities
Industrial Coal
Combustion
Other
Total
Quan-
tity
(106
Tons)
4.3
2.6
1.2
0.1
2.2
10.5
Percent
of
Regional
Total3
41
25
12
1
21
100
Percent
of
1975
Value
80
220
740
6,640
240
290
Percent
of
Regional
Total3
12
19
30
23
17
100
Low Growth
Percent
' of
1975
Value
80
220
450
4,100
180
220
Percent
of
Regional
Total3
16
25
24
19
17
100
High Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value
90
420
1,370
14,580
420
540
Percent
of
Regional
Total3
7
20
30
28
16
100
Low Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value
80
370
920
10,580
340
420
Percent
of
Regional
Total3
8
25
26
26
17
100
                     Rounding may create inconsistencies  in addition.

-------
difference in the disposal practices for fly ash and bottom ash is
apparently due to the predominance of wet sluiced collection methods
in removing bottom ash from utility boilers.101

     The cement industry relies heavily on on-site landfills for NCSW
disposal, according to the Portland Cement Association, although a
portion of the waste is used for various other purposes.1^2

     The future trends in both of these industries are expected to be
toward landfilling rather than ponding.103

     To illustrate the potential land requirement' for land for dis-
posal:  If all of the utility ash expected to be generated in the
year 2000 under High Growth assumptions were compacted to a density
of 1 ton per cubic yard and placed in a landfill 30 feet deep, the
total surface area requirement just for coal-fired utilities' NCSW
in that year alone would be approximately 3.5 square miles, or about
2,300 acres.

     Many ways for utilizing ash exist as alternatives to landfill
and ponding disposal.  The use of utility ash in the United States
in 1975 is summarized in Table 10-13.  According to Argonne National
Laboratory, the United States utilized between 14 and 17 percent of
the ash produced in the three years previous to 1975.  In contrast,
European countries used a much greater portion of the fly ash pro-
duced—79 percent in the Federal Republic of Germany, 54 percent in
the United Kingdom, and 44 percent in Belgium and Poland, 1*-^

     Some of the potential uses for coal ash are listed in Table
10-14.  Several organizations, such as the National Ash Association,
the Bureau of Mines, the Department of Transportation, EPA, and var-
ious state and local governmental agencies, as well as commercial ash
utilization firms, have been active in recent years in promoting more
use of ash.  These efforts have met with some success.   In future
years, greater quantities of ash probably will be used, but not
 ^ Radian Corporation, Study of Nonhazardous Wastes from Coal-Fired
   Utilities, Draft,  DCN-200-18/-41-08, December 1978,  p. 111.
1 ^Personalcommunication, Cleve Schneeberger and Rob Crolius,
   Portland Cement Association, Washington, D.C., June  13,  1979.
      ian Corporation, Study of Nonhazardous Wastes from Coal-
   Fired Utilities, Draft, DCN-200-18/-41-08, December  1978,  pp.
   15-16. Also, personal communication, Cleve Schneeberger and Rob
   Crolius, Portland  Cement Association,  Washington, D.C.,  June 13,
   1979.
      onne National Laboratory, Environmental Control Implications
   of Generating Electric Power From Coal:   Technology  Status Report,
   Volume II, ANL/ECT-1, December 1976, p.  180.

                                 563

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                            TABLE 10-13
         COMMERCIAL UTILIZATION OF ASH IN THE UNITED STATES2
                               1975
                         (Thousands of Tons)
             Use
Type 1-P Cement

Partial Substitute
for Cement

Lightweight Aggregate

Stabilization & Roads

Filler in Asphalt Mix

Ice Control

Blast Grit & Roof Granules

Mis c ellaneous

Ash Removal at no Cost to
Utilityb

Ash Utilized  from Disposal
Sites

1975 Total Utilized
Fly Ash    Bottom Ash   Boiler Slag

  225           70           36
  945

   90

  450

  135
  180


1,080


1.395

4,500
   35

  525



  280

  420

  350


  875


  945

3,500
   72



   54

  864

  414


  270


	90

1,800
a
 Compiled by the National Ash Association and Edison Electric Institute.

 Specific end use not known.

Source:  Argonne National Laboratory, Environmental Control Implications
         of Generating Electric Power From Coal:  Technology Status Report,
         Volume II, ANL/ECT-1, December 1976, p.  181.
                                    564

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                  TABLE 10-14
               POTENTIAL USES FOR
                    COAL ASH
Blended Cements

Pavements (LFA and LCFA mixtures)

Roadfill

Sand Blasting Grit

Brick

Component of Grout

Filler Material

Extinguisher for Spoil Pile Fires

Lightweight Concrete

Asphalt Pavements

Anti-skid Agent

Load-bearing Fill

Soil Amendment

Mineral Wood Production

Source of Chemicals
   Source:  Argonne National  Laboratory,  Environmental
            Control Implications  of  Generating  Electric
            Power From Coalt  Technology  Status Report,
            Volume  II, ANL/ECT-1, December 1976, pp.'
            180-184.
                         565

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necessarily a greater portion of the ash produced, since the genera-
tion of coal ash is projected to grow much more rapidly than the
potential demand for ash by industrial users.

     There are numerous beneficial uses of cement kiln dust as well.
Because of its high lime content, this form of NCSW has been used as
a soil additive and fertilizer.  Other possibilities include use as a
cattle feed additive, in soil stabilization, as filler material in
roofing, shingles, and asphalt, and in certain process for paper
making.105  However, utilization of kiln dust in these ways is not
expected to offset the projected increases in dust production.

     The declaration of either of these forms of NCSW as hazardous or
special waste under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act would
have a definite impact on the respective industries.  An extensive
analysis on the composition of kiln dust and on the economic impact
of RCRA on the cement industry is planned by both government agencies
and private concerns.  Numerous studies are also being undertaken on
the potential impacts of RCRA on the coal-fired utilities industry.

10.5.3  Industrial Sludge

                    HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 10.5.3

o  Estimates of trends in generation of industrial sludge are of
   limited usefulness because of insufficient data on industrial
   wastewater treatment, a major contributor.  With this exception
   noted, annual generation by 2000 is expected to increase tenfold.
   Most of this waste is scrubber sludge, which is classified as
   "special waste" under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act.

o  While marked increase in sludge generation is expected in all
   regions, four regions—Middle Atlantic, Southeast, Great Lakes,
   and South Central—account for almost three-fourths of the total.

o  Most industrial sludges are disposed of in ponds or ultimately in
   landfills.  However, recycling and process changes offer promise
   of reducing the amount of industrial sludge, especially hazardous
   waste, that requires disposal.

     Introduction

     Industrial sludge is generated, as a secondary solid waste, by
the removal of sulfur oxides and particulates in gaseous wastestreams
105personai Communication, Cleve Schneeberger and Rob Crolius,
   Portland Cement Association, Washington, B.C., June 13, 1979.
                                 566

-------
and by the treatment of industrial wastewater.  The SEAS estimates of
industrial sludge generation are fairly inclusive except for indus-
trial wastewater treatment, where SEAS estimates sludges only for the
steel industry.  A preliminary SEAS-based estimate indicates that the
national industrial sludge estimate may be as much as a factor of 7
too low in 1975 and a factor of 3 too low in 2000.  Hence, the over-
all SEAS estimate of annual industrial sludge generation is definite-
ly low.

     A preliminary estimate of the total quantity of industrial
sludge generated annually was based on the amount of captured total
suspended solids (TSS) estimated in SEAS and assumed a multiplier of
1.0.  This estimate indicates that the projected quantity of indus-
trial sludge generated, if all industrial wastewater treatment
sludges were included, would be at least three times that presently
projected in SEAS.  As a result, these projections are strongly
weighted toward scrubber sludge as the major type of industrial
sludge—a projection that does not reflect actual conditions.

     As in the case of noncombustible solid wastes, most of the in-
dustrial sludge produced is disposed of in either landfills or ponds.
Coal-fired utilities usually dispose of sludge and ash together.  Use
of present procedures is not expected to continue in the future,
since many industrial sludges have been tentatively declared hazard-
ous or special by EPA.1^6

     The trends in the levels of industrial sludge projected in both
scenarios are discussed in this section.  Industrial wastewater
treatment sludges not explicitly covered in SEAS are not analyzed.

     Trends in Industrial Sludge Generation107

     Four manufacturing industries generated the major portion—98
percent—of the estimated 8.3 million tons of industrial sludge
produced in 1975 according to SEAS (see Table 10-15).  This sludge
was generated by wet scrubbers used to control particulates in the
asphalt, lime, and pulp and paper industries and by industrial waste-
water treatment in the steel industry.  These control measures are
mandated under provisions of the Clean Air Act and the Federal Water
Pollution Control Act.  No other industry generated more than 1 per-
cent of the 1975 total.
106Federal Register, Volume 40, pp. 58957-58959, 58992, December
   18, 1979.
l°'The reader is again cautioned that the trends presented in this
   section must be viewed in the light of the lack of coverage for
   industrial wastewater treatment sludges.
                                567

-------
                                                               TABLE 10-15
                                             TRENDS  IN GENERATION OF INDUSTRIAL SLUDGE
                                                 BY  MAJOR  CONTRIBUTING  INDUSTRIES3
00

Industry
Asphalt
Steel
Lime
Pulp and Paper
Coal Combustion
Old Coal Elec-
tric Utilities
New Coal Elec-
tric Utilities
Industrial Coal
Combustion
Petroleum Refin-
ing Storage
Total
1975b
Percent
Quantity of
(106 National
Tons) Total
4.6 55
1.8 21
1.2 14
0.7 8
<0.1 1

<0.1 1

0 0

0 0

<0.1 1
8.3 100
1985
High
Percent
of
1975
Value
190
200
160
170
48,000

2,590

-

-

110
580
Growth
Percent
of
National
Totalb
18
7
4
2
69

4

52

13

io5

2,290

240 c

250 C

130
1,140
2000
Growth
Percent
of
National
Totalb
11
4
3
2
81

2

62

17


-------
     Annual industrial sludge generation is expected to increase
fivefold by 1985 and tenfold (to 95 million tons) by 2000 in the High
Growth Scenario (see Figure 10-5).  In the Low Growth Scenario, the
increase is somewhat less rapid, tripling by 1985 and increasing
eightfold, to 76 million tons, by 2000.

     This marked increase in sludge generation is due mainly to the
imposition of stringent requirements for the control of sulfur oxides
and particulate emissions on coal-burning power plants and industrial
combustion facilities to bring about improvements in air quality (for
more information on standards see Appendix A).1^8  These coal com-
bustion sources, according to SEAS estimates, generated less than 100
thousand tons of industrial sludge in 1975, but they are projected to
generate about 33 million tons in 1985 and 76 million tons in 2000
under High Growth assumptions.  In the Low Growth Scenario, the pro-
jections are somewhat lower, about 2-0 million tons in 1985 and 60
million tons in 2000.  In both scenarios, these sources alone are
projected to produce more than twice as much sludge annually by 1985
as did all sources in 1975.109

     The removal of an increasingly greater portion of sulfur oxides
from gaseous wastestreams in coal-fired utilities results in sludge
generation increases greater than the projected increases in the use
of coal by these utilities.  The use of coal by coal-fired utilities
is projected to rise from about 9 quads*!*-1 in 1975 to about 17
quads by 2000 under High Growth assumptions and about 13 quads by
2000 under Low Growth assumptions.

     The annual generation of industrial sludge by the asphalt,
steel, and lime industries by the year 2000 is expected to rise by
125 percent in the High Growth Scenario (100 percent under Low
Growth).   These projected increases result primarily from higher out-
put, but some increase can be attributed to greater air and water
pollution control.

     Regional growth and distribution in industrial sludge generation
for 1975, 1985, and 2000 are shown in Table 10-16.  Marked growth in
the generation level is projected for all regions in both scenarios
(see Figure 10-6).
1 Oft
lu°The reader is again cautioned that the trends presented in this
   section must be viewed in the light of the lack of coverage for
   industrial wastewater treatment sludges.
10'These projections are based on regulations proposed before the
   most recent NSPS revision.  Under the most recent revision, it
   is anticipated that scrubber sludge generation would be slightly
   lower than under the preceding version.
110Quad = 1 quadrillion Btu.  One quad is the energy equivalent of
   more than 170 million barrels of crude oil.
                                  569

-------
  11 —
  10 -\
   8 -
H
S  7
c  5 —
H
U
ai
   i	
Industrial Coal Combustion
New Electric Coal
Old Electric Coal
Pulp and  Paper
Other Structural Materials
Steel
Asphalt
         1975
       High  Low
         1985
                                     High  Low
                                       1990
High  Low
  2000
   NOTE: 1975 national total  =  8.3 million tons.
                            FIGURE 10-5
                    TRENDS IN GENERATION OF
             INDUSTRIAL SLUDGE BY MAJOR INDUSTRIES
                        1975,1985,1990, 2000
                               570

-------
                                           TABLE 10-16
                     TRENDS  IN REGIONAL GENERATION OF INDUSTRIAL SLUDGE5
1985
1975


Region
I. New England
II.

III.

IV.
V.
VI.

VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.

New York-
New Jersey
Middle
Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South
Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total

Percent
of
106 National
Tons Totalb
0.3

0.5

1.0
1.5
2.4

1.0
0.2
0.4
0.7
0.3
8.3
4

6

12
18
29

12
3
5
9
4
100
High Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value
380

370

570
830
510

860
1,080
390
220
280
580
Percent
of
National
Totalb
2

4

12
26
25

17
5
3
3
2
100
Low Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value
470

590

370
490
360

560
670
310
210
230
410
Percent
of
National
Totalb
4

8

11
22
25

15
5
4
4
2
100
2000
High Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value
1,020

780

1,120
1,750
860

1,800
2,100
630
420
670
1,140
Percent
of
National
Totalb
3

4

12
28
21

19
5
3
3
2
100
Low Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value
1,440

1,060

790
1,240
710

1,360
1,680
550
320
540
920
Percent
of
National
Totalb
6

6

8
24
22

18
5
3
3
2
100
 Since SEAS does not presently  adequately cover  industrial wastewater treatment sludges this  table constitutes a
 partial listing.

"'Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.

-------
   2.5 -
  2.0 -
3
H
g
O
z  1.5
ul
   1-0 -
  0.5 -
New Coal Electric Utilities

Old Coal Electric Utilities

Industrial Coal Combustion

Other Industries

Asphalt
                                                     3.2
        1975  High Low
               2000
1975  High Low
       2000
IS»75  Higa Low
       2000
1975  High  Low
       2000
1975  High  Low
       2000
           REGION I
          New  England
  REGION II
  New York -
  New Jersey
  REGION III
    Middle
   Atlantic
  RLGION  IV
  Southeast
   REGION V
 Great Lakes
       NOTE: 1975  national total = 8.3 million tons.

                                   FIGURE 10-6
                     TRENDS IN REGIONAL GENERATION OF
                   INDUSTRIAL SLUDGE BY MAJOR INDUSTRIES
                                  1975 AND 2000
                                         572

-------
  2.5 -
  2.0 -
I
  2.5 -
§
M

I
2.0 -
  0.5 -
          REGION VI
         South Central
                                   FIGURE 10-6
                                   CONTINUED
                                        573

-------
     In 1975, most of the 8.3 million tons estimated industrial
sludge was generated in four regions:  the Middle Atlantic, South-
east, Great Lakes, and South Central Regions (Federal Regions III,
IV, V, and VI).  These four regions are expected by 2000 to consume
71 percent of the total amount of coal used annually in this country
in facilities built after 1975, under High Growth assumptions (64
percent under Low Growth).  Since new installations are subject to
more stringent pollution control standards than are pre-1976 facili-
ties, m they will contribute more to industrial sludge generation
on a per product output basis.  Primarily for this reason, sludge
generation in these four regions as a whole is expected to rise more
rapidly than the national total.  Thus, these regions would continue
to account for at least 70 percent of projected industrial sludge
generation through 2000.  In both scenarios, no other regions are
expected to contribute more than 6 percent of the national total by
2000.

     Disposal of Industrial Sludge

     The safe disposal of industrial sludges from pollution control
will become more and more difficult over the next 25 years.  Annual
generation of these sludges is expected to reach 95 million tons by
2000 under High Growth assumptions and 76 million tons under Low
Growth assumptions.  Fully 80 percent of this waste is potentially
hazardous "special waste" from coal-combustion air pollution control.
Further, a large number of industrial wastewater treatment sludges
have been tentatively declared hazardous.     Most of these sludges
are not accounted for in SEAS, but a preliminary estimate based on
SEAS material indicates that annual generation of industrial waste-
water treatment sludges may be at least three times that of the
industrial sludges discussed in the previous section by 2000.  Even
this estimate may be low.

     Since data on the quantity of industrial wastewater treatment
sludges are generally lacking, the following discussion will address
disposal of the major type of industrial sludge identified by SEAS,
coal-combustion scrubber sludge.

     Two types of coal combustion users have been identified as major
sources of industrial sludge:  coal-fired utilities and industrial
coal-combustion facilities.  Not much information is available on the
current practices of the industrial users, but it appears that small
11!New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) and Best Available
   Control Technology (BACT) regulations, in contrast to State
   Implementation Plans (SIPs).
112Federal Register, Volume 40, pp. 58946, 59028, December 18,
   1979.

                                574

-------
facilities dispose of their sludge in municipal refuse facilities
while larger firms use some form of on-site landfill or ponding.

     Several studies of the sludge disposal methods of the electric
utility industry have been made.H^  There is some disagreement as
to the number of plants using ponds as a disposal method, but it
appears that at least 60 percent of the plants generating sludge in
1977 used this method to dispose of the sludge.l15  The remaining
40 percent used some form of landfill.  One report examined mentioned
that the current trend is toward landfilling rather than ponding as a
disposal method. H"

     Land disposal of scrubber sludge requires a large amount of
land.  The disposal of the 75 million tons of scrubber sludge pro-
jected to be generated annually by 2000 under High Growth assumptions
could require about 2.5 square miles or 1,580 acres of ponding 30
feet deep.l^  The amount of land that would be required if a land-
fill were used would be similar.

     Fewer alternative methods exist for disposal of scrubber sludge
than for coal ash.  The major alternative to land disposal is dispo-
sal in coal mines—in deep mines as a subsidence inhibitor, and in
surface mines for land reclamation purposes.  Cost and technical bar-
                                      \ 1 Q
riers hinder the use of these options.110
H3personai communication, Jan Auerbach, EPA Office of Solid
   Waste, July 1979.
11^Radian Corporation, Study of Nonhazardous Wastes from Coal-Fired
   Utilities, Draft, DCN-200-18/-41-08, December 1978; Argonne
   National Laboratory, Environmental Control Implications of Gen-
   erating Electric Power from Coal;  Technology Status Report,
   Volume II, ANL/ECT-1, December 1976; Fred C. Hart Associates,
   Implications of the Designation of Energy Related Waste as Special
   Waste. March 1979.
H^Radian Corporation, Study of Nonhazardous Wastes from Coal-Fired
   Utilities, Draft, DCN-200-18/-41-08, December 1978, p. 15.  Also,
   Fred C. Hart Associates, Implications of the Designation of Energy
   Related Waste as Special Waste, March 1979, p. 7.
1^Radian Corporation, Study of Nonhazardous Wastes from Coal-Fired
   Utiliies. Draft, DCN-200-18/-41-08, December 1978, p. 15.
H7Assuming a coefficient of about 2,170 pounds per cubic yard of
   ponding area, 30 feet deep.  Based on calculations made in Radian
   Corporation, Study of Nonhazardous Wastes from Coal-Fired Utili-
   ties. Draft, DCN-200-18/-41-08, December 1978, pp. 126-129.
118Ibid, pp. 20-21.
                                  575

-------
     The potential alternative uses of scrubber sludge parallel those
of ash.  These include:  recovery of chemicals, manufacture of build-
ings materials, structural fill, paving materials, and soil stabili-
zation.  The most promising uses are in the production of gypsum
wallboard and the utilization of gypsum in Portland cement manufac-
ture.

     The recycling of scrubber sludge through the use of regenerable
scrubbers would undoubtedly decrease the amount of sludge generated
annually.^^  A number of different regenerable scrubber systems
are being developed and tested at this time.  If a suitably large
market can be found for the sulfur or sulfuric acid produced by these
systems, some of the systems may be economically competitive with
lime/limestone scrubbers when sludge disposal costs are in-
cluded. 120  As disposal costs rise, therefore, regenerable scrub-
bers become more attractive economically, adding incentive to the
search for solutions of the remaining technical problems.

     The treatment of scrubber sludges by dewatering and stabiliza-
tion increases the utility of the sludge.  The removal of water by
centrifugation, vacuum filtration, or mechanical thickening, and the
addition of chemical stabilizers, such as fly ash and lime, improve
the physical and chemical characteristics of the sludge.  At the
least, the treatment makes the land disposal of the sludges safer.

10.5.4  Municipal Sewage Sludge

                    HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 10.5.4

o  Annual generation of municipal sewage sludge is expected to about
   double between 1975 and 2000.  Most of the increase is due to
   improvements in municipal wastewater treatment prompted by the
   requirements of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act; a little
   more than one-fourth of the increase is due to population growth.
   Little change is expected in the regional distribution.

o  Landfilling and ocean dumping are the major sewage sludge disposal
   methods now in use.  Ocean dumping will generally be prohibited
   after 1981.  Several alternatives to landfilling, including land
   farming, composting, conversion to fuels, and direct combustion,
   are being investigated.
   It should be noted that regenerable scrubbers currently are
   being used in some locations.
   Radian Corporation, Study of Nonhazardous Wastes from Coal-Fired
   Utilities, Draft, DCN-200-18/-41-08, December 1978, pp. 176-190.
                                  576

-------
     Introduction

     A large number of options are currently being investigated to
aid in disposing of municipal sewage sludge, which is the secondary
solid waste produced by municipal wastewater treatment.  These
options include landfill and ponding, land application as a nutrient
source, and use of sludge as a fuel source.

     Currently municipal sewage sludge which may reach navigable
waters is exempt from Subitle C of the Resource Conservation and
Recovery Act, which deals with hazardous waste, because it is regu-
lated under the Clean Water Act. ^1  However, municipal sewage
sludge is covered by RCRA's Subtitle D which will have an impact on
how sewage sludge is disposed of, particularly the extent to which it
can be used as a soil nutrient source.

     Two factors determine the generation of municipal sewage sludge:
population growth and the level of municipal wastewater treatment.
The level of treatment projected in a region depends on the portion
of the regional population served by municipal sewage systems, and
the degree of treatment projected to be achieved in both existing and
planned municipal waste treatment plants.  Improvements in the degree
of municipal waste treatment are expected as a result of the imple-
mentation of the effluent standards promulgated pursuant to the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA, PL 92-500).  The follow-
ing analysis will discuss both the national and the regional trends
in municipal sewage sludge and identify the extent to which each of
the two factors determine the trends.

     Trends in Municipal Sewage Sludge Generation

     National trends in the annual generation of municipal sewage
sludge are illustrated in Figure 10-7.  An increase of 55 percent
over the 1975 level of about 3 million tons is expected by 1985 under
High Growth assumptions, with an additional increase of only 15 per-
cent of the 1975 total between 1985 and 2000.  Increases anticipated
in the Low Growth Scenario are slightly smaller because projected
population growth is lower.

     As evidenced in Figure 10-7, most of the projected growth in
annual municipal sewage sludge generation is the result of the
compliance with Clean Water Act provisions that is assumed in the
       the purposes of this chapter, the term "Clean Water Act"
   will refer to the Federal Water Pollution Control Act as amended
   by PL 92-500 of 1972 and the Clean Water Act of 1977 (PL 95-217),
   unless otherwise stated.  See Chapter 6.
                                 577

-------
                                    FRACTION OF 1975 NATIONAL TOTAL
                                      o
                                      .
                                      t_n
   30
   m
   m
en
o ±
°0
  o
  o
  m
              o
              3
              rt
              O
              rt
              O
              P
O
3
en
                       VD
                       •^J
                       Ln
                    oo
                       EC
                       P-
                       OQ
      VO (—I
      o £
                    o
                    o
                    o

-------
model.  This factor would account for about 85 percent of the in-
creases projected to occur between 1975 and 1985 and about 70 percent
of those between 1975 to 2000 in both scenarios.  After 1985, the
degree of municipal waste treatment is assumed to remain constant,
with new treatment plants being built only as the growth in popula-
tion demands.  Thus, population growth is the sole cause of the
increase projected to occur between 1985 and 2000.

     Since the rates of population growth and the average overall ef-
ficiency of municipal waste treatment vary among the federal regions,
generation of municipal sewage sludge is projected to increase at
different rates from region to region.  However, there is only a
small variance in the expected increases between the regions.  As a
result, since many of the projected large relative increases are
associated with fairly small absolute increases, only minor changes
are expected over time in the regional distribution of total national
generation of sewage sludge (see Table 10-17).

     The anticipated implementation of the Clean Water Act standards
is expected to account for at least 65 percent of the near-term in-
crease (by 1985) in municipal sewage sludge within each region in
both scenarios.  For the long term (by 2000), this factor is expected
to account for 45 percent of the increase in the High Growth Scenario
and 55 percent of the long-term growth in the Low Growth Scenario
(see Table 10-18).

     Disposal of Sewage Sludge

     Three methods of sewage sludge disposal are in general use in
the United States.  According to one estimate, about 50 percent of
the annual generation of sewage sludge is disposed of on land, 35
percent is incinerated, and 15 percent is dumped in the ocean.

     Land disposal of sewage sludge presents a number of potential
hazards to human health and the environment if performed indiscrimi-
nantly.  Possibly the most serious potential hazard is the result of
the presence of pathogens in sewage sludge.  The potential exists for
intestinal parasites, viruses, and bacteria to enter both the envi-
ronment and the human food chain if sewage sludge is not disposed of
properly.  In order to minimize the impact of land disposal of sewage
sludge on human health and the environment, EPA has promulgated regu-
lations jointly under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (PL
100
•••Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality—The
   Ninth Annual Report of the Council on Environmental Quality,
   Washington, B.C., December 1978,-p. 161.


                                  579

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                                                                TABLE 10-17
                                       TRENDS IN REGIONAL GENERATION OF  MUNICIPAL  SEWAGE SLUDGE
                                            1975
                                                                      1985
                                                                                                       2000
00
O
High Growth

I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.

Region
New England
New York-
New Jersey
Middle
Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total
106
Tons
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.1
3.1
Percent
of
National
Total
3
7
9
15
21
14
7
4
16
3
100
Percent
of
1975
Value
180
200
150
150
140
140
130
140
170
150
150
Percent
of
National
Total a
3
10
10
16
20
13
6
3
18
3
100
Low Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value
180
200
150
150
140
140
130
130
170
150
150
Percent
of
National
Total a
3
10
9
15
19
13
6
3
18
3
100
High Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value
200
220
160
180
150
170
140
160
190
180
170
Percent
of
National
Total a
3
9
9
16
18
14
6
3
19
3
100
Low Growth
Percent
of
1975
Value
190
210
160
160
140
150
130
140
180
160
160
Percent
of
National
Total3
3
9
9
16
19
13
6
3
19
3
100
                    Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.

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                                                       TABLE 10-18
                                    PERCENT OF INCREASE  IN MUNICIPAL SEWAGE SLUDGE
                                        DUE TO POPULATION GROWTH AND INCREASED
                                               LEVEL  OF  WASTE TREATMENT
                                             1975-1985
                                                                                    1975-2000
oo
High Growth

I.
II.

III.
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.

Region
New England
New York-New
Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total
Population
Growth
11

3
14
32
15
33
13
40
20
26
18
Level of
Waste-
treatment
89

97
86
68
85
67
87
60
80
74
82
Low Growth
Population
Growth
8

1
8
29
9
31
4
31
18
20
14
Level of
Waste-
treatment •
92

99
92
71
91
69
96
69
82
80
86
High
Population
Growth
20

7
25
46
27
52
26
56
33
41
31
Growth
Level of
Waste-
treatment
80

93
75
54
73
48
74
44
67
59
69
Low Growth
Population
Growth
15

5
18
40
20
42
20
44
26
33
15
Level of
Waste-
treatment
85

95
91
60
80
58
80
56
74
67
75

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94-580) and the Clean Water Act (PL 95-217).123  These regulations
require that sewage sludge, if landfilled, must be disposed of in a
sanitary landfill and that measures be taken to prevent the contamin-
ation of ground and surface water.  These regulations also include
provisions concerning the application of sewage sludge to land.
Sewage sludge can be applied to land as a soil nutrient for cropland
and reclaimed mining land, or as an aid in contouring mining lands.
These provisions set maximum levels for cadmium application and mini-
mum levels for pH of the sludge and soil mixture, and further require
that such sludge be treated by a "process to significantly reduce
pathogens."  These processes include anaerobic digestion, composting,
and lime stabilization.  Under certain conditions the sludge must
also be treated by a "process to further reduce pathogens" such as
thermophilic aerobic digestion.124

     Sewage sludge is frequently incinerated in order to reduce the
land disposal requirement.  However, as with municipal solid waste,
incineration of sewage sludge can be used to produce by-product heat.
The heat properties of the sludge can be improved by adding pulver-
ized coal or municipal solid waste in a cocombustion facility.  The
residual solid waste, e.g., bottom ash, captured fly ash, and scrub-
ber sludge would have to be disposed of in accordance with the
regulations mentioned previously.

     Other thermal decomposition techniques, such as pyrolytic con-
version of sludge to fuel, also can be used to reduce the volume of
sludge to be disposed of and produce useful by-products.

     Ocean dumping generally has been confined to those coastal
cities facing severe land availability problems, such as New York and
Philadelphia.  However, a statutory ban on ocean dumping is scheduled
to go into effect in December 1981.  As a result, such cities will
have to find some alternative method of disposing of their sewage
sludge.

     A number of constraints restrict the use of many of these treat-
ment and disposal options.  Of particular importance are the poten-
tial for microbiological and heavy metals contamination of land, air
pollution potential, cost, and citizen opposition to siting disposal
facilities.  These constraints may be reduced as technology advances,
citizens become better educated and the costs of landfill increases.
123Federal Register, Volume 40, pp. 53438-53464, September 13,
    1979.
124Ibid, p. 53463.
                                  582

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10.6  OTHER SOLID WASTES

                     HIGHLIGHTS OF SECTION 10.6

o  Annual generation of silviculture, agriculture, and animal wastes
   is expected to increase moderately between 1975 and 2000.  These
   wastes represent significant potential sources of energy.

o  Annual demolition waste generation is expected to almost double
   between 1975 and 2000.  Much of this waste is disposed of on land.

o  Transportation waste generation is expected to increase slightly
   between 1975 and 1990.  The bulk of this waste is expected to be
   recycled.

10.6.1  Introduction

     Many types of solid waste are generated annually in the United
States besides those discussed earlier in this chapter.  Wastes
covered in this section—silvicultural, animal, agricultural, demoli-
tion, and transportation—were chosen for discussion here either be-
cause of their potential for contributing to environmental problems
or because of their recycling potential.  Dredge spoils, a major
marine solid waste problem, are addressed in Chapter 9.

10.6.2  Silvicultural Solid Wastes

     The two major types of silvicultural solid wastes are logging
residues and mill residues.  Logging residues are the wastes left
over from logging operations; mill residues consist of the wood waste
created by lumber, plywood, and woodpulp production, and by produc-
tion of other primary products.  ^

     Based on the production of silvicultural and wood product indus-
tries, it has been estimated that about 83 million dry ton equiva-
lents (DTEs)126 Of logging residues and about 86 million DTEs of
mill residues were generated in 1970.  Of this, a negligible portion
of the logging residues and fully 70 percent of the mill residues
were reused.1^7
125The MITRE Corporation, Silvicultural Biomass Farms, Volume VI:
   Forest and Mill Residues as Potential Sources of Biomass,
   MTR-7347, May 1977.
     E = dry ton equivalent = a measure of the dry weight of a
   biomass product.
127The MITRE Corporation, Silvicultural Biomass Farms, Volume VI:
   Forest and Mill Residues as Potential Sources of Biomas, MTR-7347,
   May 1977, pp. s-4-6.

                                  583

-------
     Based on timber harvest projections, annual logging residue gen-
eration is expected to range from 81 to 148 million DTEs in 2000.
Using projections of the output of three primary product industries,
annual mill residue generation has been projected to range from 88 to
128 million DTEs in 2000.128

     The disposal of silvicultural solid wastes presents few environ-
mental problems.  In fact, the disposal of some silvicultural wastes
on land enhances the soil by replacing nutrients in the soil as the
wastes degrade.

     Silvicultural residues are a major potential fuel source in the
United States.  Residues can be burned to produce process heat or
electricity, thermochemically converted to synthetic gases and
liquids, or fermented to produce ethylene gas.129  Current wood
resources, of which silvicultural solid wastes are a large portion,
have been estimated at 9 quads annual yield.  This total is expected
to decline to about 5 quads annually in 1995 and thereafter due to an
expected sharp decline in surplus growth.130

10.6.3  Animal Wastes

     Animal wastes or manure is composed of "lignaceous and fibrous
organic matter, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, volatile acids, pro-
teins, fats, and carbohydrates."131  ^s a resuit Of surface runoff
and other transport factors, animal wastes collected on farms,
ranches, and feedlots are a major source of surface water contamina-
tion by BOD and nutrients.

     It has been estimated that more than 2 billion tons of animal
wastes are generated annually.132  Projections of the trends in
generation of animal wastes are generally unavailable.   However, the
l28The MITRE Corporation, Silvicultural Biomass Farms, Volume VI;
   Forest and Mill Residues as Potential Sources of Biomas, MTR-7347,
   May 1977, pp. s-4-6.
12'Salo, D.J. and J.F. Henry, "Wood Based Biomass Resources in the
   United States (Near Term and Long Term Prospects)," Draft, to be
   published in proceedings of Workshop on Biomass Energy and Tech-
   nology, sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute, Palo
   Alto, California, November 1979., p. 1.
130Ibid, pp. 7-10.
101
1JiBond, R.  and C. Straub, Handbook of Environmental Control,
   Volume II;  Solid Waste, CRC Press, Cleveland, Ohio, 1973,
   p. 78.
132u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Methods for Identifying
   and Evaluating the Nature and Extent of Non-Point Sources of
   Pollutants, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.,
   p. 36.
                                 584

-------
constant dollar output of the meat animals and other livestock indus-
try can be used as a surrogate.  Under the assumptions of the High
Growth Scenario the output of the industry is expected to grow from
about 30 billion dollars (1972 constant dollars) in 1975 to about 41
billion dollars by 2000 (about 36 billion dollars under Low Growth
assumptions).  Therefore, based on these trends, annual animal waste
generation can be expected to increase moderately between 1975 and
2000.

     Animal wastes have numerous beneficial uses, including compost-
ing, stock feeding, and pyrolytic conversion to gas.  The potential
for using animal wastes to produce natural gas substitutes is cur-
rently being studied.

10.6.4  Agricultural Wastes

     As mentioned in the introduction, EPA estimates that approxi-
mately 475 million tons of agricultural waste is generated annu-
ally.     Assuming that all of this waste is crop-related, the
adverse environmental impact of this volume of waste is comparatively
small.  Since crop-related waste generation is a function of type of
crop and acreage under cultivation—neither of which is expected to
change sharply between 1975 and 2000 in either scenario—it is not
anticipated that annual agricultural waste generation will increase
markedly in the near future.134

     Like silvicultural residues, agricultural wastes can be con-
verted to energy uses through either direct combustion or pyrolytic
conversion to natural gas substitutes.  A large body of research is
under way in the area of energy uses of agricultural wastes.

10.6.5  Demolition Wastes

     Demolition wastes are those generated during the destruction of
buildings and other structures.1-"  At present,  the greater portion
of these wastes are landfilled,  usually in municipal facilities.
TOO
1 JU.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water and Waste
   Management, EPA Activities under the Resource Conservation and
   Recovery Act;  Fiscal Year 1978, SW-755, Washington, D.C., March
   1979, pp. 1-2.
   Total acres in crop production are expected to increase by 18
   percent in the High Growth Scenario and to remain constant in
   the Low Growth Scenario (see Table 6-3).
1-"international Research and Technology Corporation, Forecasts of
   the Quantity and Composition of Solid Waste, IRT-19300/R-3, June
   1979, p. 15.
                                 585

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     Annual "net" demolition waste generation has been estimated at
82 million tons in 1971.136  It is expected that this total will
increase to over 150 million tons annually by 1990 under a "business
                   1 17
as usual'  scenario.10

     The potential for decreasing demolition waste disposal require-
ments through recycling is very limited.  However, increasing average
building lifetimes has been shown to have a dramatic effect on net
demolition waste generation.^3°  Such an initiative could result in
a significant reduction in the landfill requirements of many cities.

10.6.6  Transportation Wastes

     Transportation wastes include "product category wastes from
automobiles and all other modes of transportation, as well as bat-
teries. "1-^  Tires are specifically excluded from this definition.

     A significant portion of transportation wastes is recycled.  Of
the 23 million tons of transportation wastes estimated to have been
generated in 1971, only about 5 million tons were ultimately disposed
of; the rest were recycled.  International Research and Technology
Corporation has projected that annual transportation waste generation
will reach over 28 million tons in 1990.  Of this, only 5.9 million
tons will require disposal. ^^

     Transportation wastes, therefore, are a good example of the
extent to which recycling can diminish solid waste disposal require-
ments.

10.7  IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS

     The disposal of  solid wastes poses numerous potential problems.
These problems are not limited to possible adverse environmental and
human health impacts  but include social and economic problems.  The
major problems relating to solid wastes are identified and examined
in the following sections.
 1^International Research and Technology Corporation, Forecasts  of
    the Quantity and Composition of Solid Waste,  IRT-19300/R-3, June
    1979,  p.  15.  In keeping with  the general  terminology of  SEAS,
    "net"  solid wastes  refers to the amount of  solid waste generated
    minus  the solid wastes recycled.
 137Ibid,  p.  34.
 138Ibid,  p.  43.
 139Ibid,  p.  15.
 140Ibid,  p.  23.

                                  586

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10.7.1  Ground Water Contamination

     Possibly the most critical problem posed by solid waste genera-
tion is the potential contamination of ground water by leachate from
disposal sites.  This contamination has resulted from the disposal
of both hazardous and nonhazardous wastes.  Ground water is used ex-
tensively in the United States as a drinking water supply and, in
many areas of the country, it is the only economical source of high-
quality drinking water.

     In 1977, the EPA Office of Water Supply and Office of Solid
Waste Management Programs submitted a report to Congress on the
impact of waste disposal practices on ground water.^^  They found
that past practices in disposing of wastes have adversely affected
ground water quantity and quality in many parts of the country.  Of
primary concern, both now and in the future, are industrial impound-
ments or holding ponds and municipal and industrial landfills.

     The report also concluded that despite numerous cases of ground
water contamination, the overall usefulness of ground water "has not
been diminished on a national basis."142

     The regulations on disposal of solid waste proposed under the
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act are designed, in part, to
prevent ground water contamination.  Design and operation criteria,
as well as ground water monitoring requirements for hazardous waste
sites, will help ensure that ground water is not routinely contamina-
ted as a result of waste disposal practices in the future.  However,
there is only a limited capability to model the movement of dangerous
compounds from a disposal site through the ground and into ground
water.  As a result, these criteria will reflect the best engineering
judgement available.

     However, regulations on future waste disposal will not stop
contamination from abandoned sites.  Unless these sites, particularly
sites containing hazardous wastes, are cleaned up, a continuing de-
cline in the quality of ground water in the United States can be ex-
pected.
        Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Water Supply and
   Office of Solid Waste Management Programs, The Report to Congress:
   Waste Disposal Practices and Their Effects on Ground Water,  U.S.
   Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C., January 1977,  p.  2.
                                 587

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10.7.2  Public Opposition

     Another major problem associated with solid wastes is that com-
munities are becoming more resistant to siting of disposal sites
within the community boundaries.  This problem is particularly criti-
cal for hazardous wastes.  This resistance is due primarily to fears
on the part of the community that waste disposal sites would decrease
land values in the area surrounding the site and would pose a threat
to health.  The past history of waste disposal does not serve to al-
leviate these fears.  However, safe operation of waste disposal sites
may relieve this problem in the future.

     Moreover, in the case of mining wastes, for example, public
opposition to the aesthetic degradation resulting from waste piles is
strong—as evidenced by recent mining reclamation regulations and
efforts.  Considerable effort will probably have to be undertaken to
ensure that solid waste disposal sites are as inoffensive as possi-
ble, aesthetically as well as environmentally.

10.7.3  Land Availability

     Another problem associated with solid waste disposal is that of
land availability.  In some areas land values are so high that the
cost of land disposal of solid wastes is prohibitive.  Certain
cities, like New York and Philadelphia, currently dispose of a por-
tion of their municipal solid wastes by ocean dumping.  The banning
of ocean dumping, effective in 1981, could force such cities to
increase recycling of wastes and to utilize other more expensive dis-
posal methods.  Nonetheless, land disposal will probably be used as
the primary method to dispose of solid wastes in these areas.  The
resulting conflicts over the use of the land may be severe in some
localities.

10.7.4  Site Suitability

     In some cases, site suitability may be a problem.  Hazardous and
special waste facilities cannot be located in environmentally sensi-
tive areas under the proposed regulations.  Such areas include:

     o  Active fault zones

     o  Regulated floodways

     o  Coastal high hazard areas

     o  500-year floodplains

     o  Wetlands


                                 588

-------
     o  Critical habitat areas

     o  Recharge zones of sole source

The necessity for such restrictions is fairly evident.

10.7.5  Cost of Disposal

     Another major problem associated with solid waste is increased
cost of disposal.  As a result of the implementation of the Resource
Conservation and Recovery Act and the projected increases in solid
waste generation, both total costs and costs per unit disposed of are
expected to rise in the future.  EPA and industry disagree as to the
overall economic impact of the Act, with industries' estimates of the
cost higher than EPA's estimates.  For example, EPA estimates a total
annual cost of $750 million for the industries covered by the hazard-
ous waste regulations; industries estimate $25 billion.  Considering
such a difference of opinion and the preliminary nature of the cur-
rent regulations, the total cost of the regulations cannot be esti-
mated with any accuracy at present.

10.7.6  Other Problems

     A great many other problems are associated with the disposal of
solid wastes.  These include potential air pollution caused by fugi-
tive dust from waste piles, explosions of trapped gases in landfills,
occasional surface water contamination by runoff from waste piles or
overflow from holding ponds, and potential releases of pathogens to
the environment.  The severity of these problems depends heavily on
the type of waste and on local environmental factors.  However, in
some cases, the adverse environmental impacts related to these prob-
lems may be significant.

10.7.7  Mitigating Factors

     Adverse environmental effects can be considerably alleviated
by proper disposal of the wastes and by recycling and other methods.
Sanitary landfills,  which are the required method of disposal for
nonhazardous wastes, are designed to prevent ground water contami-
nation as well as inhibit the growth of  bacteria and prevent gas
explosions.  The quantity of solid wastes that require disposal can
be decreased either through process change to decrease the waste-
to-product ratio or by increased recycling.
143Fre(j G> nart Associates, Impacts of the Designation of Energy-
   Related Waste as Special Waste,  March 1979,  p.  2.
                                 589

-------
     Considerable investigation to reduce waste-to-product ratios is
being conducted by industry.   The environmental and economic implica-
tions of future product process changes are almost impossible to
assess.

     Resource recovery also serves to alleviate the environmental
effects of waste disposal.  At least one study on the environmental
implications of resource recovery has concluded that increased re-
cycling would have positive net environmental and economic benefits.
These benefits are realized through decreasing the amount of solid
waste disposed of on land and decreasing production requirements by
use of recycled products instead of primary products (recycled alu-
minum instead of bauxite, for example). 1^

10.8  SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

     Annual generation of all types of solid waste is expected to
increase between 1975 and 2000.  Hazardous waste generation may
double to 70 million tons (wet) annually by 2000 if the trends of the
recent past continue.  Even under strong recycling initiatives, more
than 350 million tons of industrial and municipal solid wastes would
have to be disposed of annually in 1990.*45  Mining waste genera-
tion is projected to be over 6 billion tons annually in 2000, as com-
pared with 2 to 3 billion tons in 1975.  Even if pollution control
regulations do not become more stringent, secondary solid waste gen-
eration in 2000 could be as high as 400 million tons annually on a
dry-weight basis.  It is anticipated, therefore, that total annual
solid waste generation will at least double and possibly triple
between 1975 and 2000.

     There are numerous causes for these increases.  The interaction
of energy initiatives and environmental regulations result in the
increases in generation of secondary wastes related to air pollution.
Energy initiatives alone result in the increases in coal and oil
shale waste generation projected in the SEAS scenarios.  While all  of
secondary solid wastes come about as the result of environmental reg-
ulations, the removal of pollutants from wastestreams is essential  to
improving the quality of the environment.  Economic and population
growth fuel the increases in all forms of solid wastes.

     The reasons for increases in solid waste generation are complex.
No single factor predominates in causing the increases projected.
       MITRE  Corporation, Assessment of the Impacts of Resource
    Recovery on  the Environment, MTR-8033, December 1978.
 1^5See Section  10.3.   The definitions of municipal and industrial
    wastes  used  to derive these projections are not standard.
                                  590

-------
Therefore, an integrated, comprehensive approach is necessary to
alleviate the problems posed by solid waste generation.

     The question becomes:  How will the United States cope with
these increasing amounts of solid waste?  Further, to what extent
will the regulatory philosophy described in the introduction (see
Section 10.1) aid in dealing with the solid waste problem?

     Increased recycling and reuse of solid waste will undoubtedly
serve to lessen the requirement for disposing of solid waste.  It has
been shown to have positive net environmental and economic benefits.
However, based on current recycling projections, it is unlikely that
recycling alone can offset the increase in solid waste generation
expected in the period 1975 to 2000, except in certain industries.

     Many of the alternative disposal methods are still in design
stages or are plagued with problems.  Also, a number of the alterna-
tive disposal methods are designed only to prevent environmental
damage once the waste has been disposed of on land.

     The extent to which production process changes will offset the
trends in solid waste generation is presently unknown..  Perceiving
EPA's regulatory philosophy, many industries are investigating the
possibilities of process changes to reduce solid waste generation.
However, if such changes do not become a reality, more and more land
will be needed to dispose of solid wastes, and the problem for some
areas of the country will become more severe.
                                591

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                       CHAPTER 11
                   TOXIC SUBSTANCES
                   HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 11

In recent years,  on the order of 500 new chemicals  have  been
introduced into commercial production annually,  and the  6  percent
rate of growth in production in all chemical  industries  has been
twice that of industrial production in general.   This  trend is
projected to continue,  with production of some chemicals growing
at a much higher rate.   Since there are many  toxic  materials  emit-
ted during manufacture  and use of these chemicals,  the quantity of
toxic materials produced may be expected to grow also.

The mortality rate for  all cancers combined has shown  a  slow, but
constant growth in the  United States.  As a result  of  cancer  onset
latency (20 to 30 years), the latest available cancer  mortality
rates would reflect exposures to carcinogens  that occurred soon
after World War II.  The dramatic increase in U.S.  production and
use of chemicals since  1950, many of which have been found to be
carcinogenic, may eventually be reflected in  a rapid acceleration
of cancer incidence in  the 1980s.

The market share held by organophosphate insecticides  is increas-
ing, while that of organochlorines (chlorinated hydrocarbons) is
decreasing.  Thus, it would appear that persistent  products cap-
able of producing chronic effects are being replaced by  those
that are more readily degraded.  However, these substitute prod-
ucts are often more capable of producing acute toxic effects.
Moreover, recent evidence indicates that highly stable breakdown
products may be created when these substitute chemicals  are de-
graded in the environment.

In at least one segment of the plastics industry, vinyl  chloride
production, Federal regulations to reduce exposure  of  workers to
toxicants seem to have  improved production efficiency, while  re-
ducing hazardous exposure.

The principal risk of toxic substances to most people  appears to
be from chronic toxicity, the effect of prolonged or repeated ex-
posures to chemical agents in the environment.  Some occupational
situations or accidents result in acute toxic effects, death, or
impairment of bodily function from a single or short-term  dose.
                              593

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 11.1  INTRODUCTION

     Toxic substances are a pervasive environmental problem.  Some of
the "conventional" pollutants discussed in previous chapters are tox-
ic when emitted or discharged in air, in water, or on land.  Other
chapters have also dealt with hazardous air pollutants, toxic water
pollutants, and hazardous wastes.

     However, simply treating the problem of toxic substances as
environmental residues does not take into account the other avenues
of exposure, including occupational and consumer exposure.  Such an
approach also ignores the opportunity to deal with toxic substances
at their source either by controlling or restricting their production
and uses.

     Chemical sales in the United States in 1978 exceeded $125 bil-
lion-'- and involved some 70,000 different substances.^  Many of
these chemicals exhibit little or no toxicity, and even a very toxic
substance presents little risk if it is isolated from the environ-
ment.  Nevertheless, there is growing evidence of health and envi-
ronmental risk in our "chemical society," both from brief, often
accidental, exposure to high levels of a toxic substance and from
prolonged exposure in a "normal" environment to low levels of one or
several toxic substances.

     A major problem in public policy, then, is protecting the public
from exposure to toxic substances.  Environmental policy decisions
require identification of toxic substances, their toxic properties
and their exposures to humans and the environment, and an assessment
of the resulting risk.  Identification of toxic substances does not
mean simply looking at synthetic chemicals, for our diverse natural
environment provides many toxic materials—asbestos, lead, and
aflatoxin, to name only three; and exposure to these materials in-
creases during industrial extraction and production.  Production of
toxic heavy metals has grown steadily, with mercury and cadmium con-
sumption increasing by about 70 percent between 1948 and 19683 and
1"Facts and Figures for the U.S. Chemical Industry," Chemical and
 Engineering News, June 11, 1979, p. 47.
^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality—1978,
 U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C., p. 178.
^Council on Environmental Quality, Toxic Substances, U.S. Govern-
 ment Printing  Office, Washington, D.C., April  1971.
                                  594

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                        CHAPTER 11
                   TOXIC SUBSTANCES
                   HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 11

In recent years, on the order of 500 new chemicals have been
introduced into commercial production annually,  and the 6 percent
rate of growth in production in all chemical industries has  been
twice that of industrial production in general.   This  trend  is
projected to continue, with production of some chemicals growing
at a much higher rate.  Since there are many toxic materials emit-
ted during manufacture and use of these chemicals, the quantity of
toxic materials produced may be expected to grow also.

The mortality rate for all cancers combined has  shown  a slow, but
constant growth in the United States.  As a result of  cancer onset
latency (20 to 30 years), the latest available cancer  mortality
rates would reflect exposures to carcinogens that occurred soon
after World War II.  The dramatic increase in U.S. production and
use of chemicals since 1950, many of which have  been found to be
carcinogenic, may eventually be reflected in a rapid acceleration
of cancer incidence in the 1980s.

The market share held by organophosphate insecticides  is increas-
ing, while that of organochlorines (chlorinated  hydrocarbons) is
decreasing.  Thus, it would appear that persistent products  cap-
able of producing chronic effects are being replaced by those
that are more readily degraded.  However, these  substitute prod-
ucts are often more capable of producing acute toxic effects.
Moreover, recent evidence indicates that highly  stable breakdown
products may be created when these substitute chemicals are  de-
graded in the environment.

In at least one segment of the plastics industry, vinyl chloride
production, Federal regulations to reduce exposure of  workers to
toxicants seem to have improved production efficiency,  while re-
ducing hazardous exposure.

The principal risk of toxic substances to most people  appears to
be from chronic toxicity, the effect of prolonged or repeated ex-
posures to chemical agents in the environment.  Some occupational
situations or accidents result in acute toxic effects,  death, or
impairment of bodily function from a single or short-term dose.
                              593

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11.1  INTRODUCTION

     Toxic substances are a pervasive environmental problem.  Some of
the "conventional" pollutants discussed in previous chapters are tox-
ic when emitted or discharged in air, in water, or on land.  Other
chapters have also dealt with hazardous air pollutants, toxic water
pollutants, and hazardous wastes.

     However, simply treating the problem of toxic substances as
environmental residues does not take into account the other avenues
of exposure, including occupational and consumer exposure.  Such an
approach also ignores the opportunity to deal with toxic substances
at their source either by controlling or restricting their production
and uses.

     Chemical sales in the United States in 1978 exceeded $125 bil-
lion1 and involved some 70,000 different substances.   Many of
these chemicals exhibit little or no toxicity, and even a very toxic
substance presents little risk if it is isolated from the environ-
ment.  Nevertheless, there is growing evidence of health and envi-
ronmental risk in our "chemical society," both from brief, often
accidental, exposure to high levels of a toxic substance and from
prolonged exposure in a'"normal" environment to low levels of one or
several toxic substances.

     A major problem in public policy, then, is protecting the public
from exposure to toxic substances.  Environmental policy decisions
require identification of toxic substances, their toxic properties
and their exposures to humans and the environment, and an assessment
of the resulting risk.  Identification of toxic substances does not
mean simply looking at synthetic chemicals, for our diverse natural
environment provides many toxic materials—asbestos, lead, and
aflatoxin, to name only three; and exposure to these materials in-
creases during industrial extraction and production.  Production of
toxic heavy metals has grown steadily, with mercury and cadmium con-
sumption increasing by about 70 percent between 1948 and 1968^ and
1"Facts and Figures for the U.S. Chemical Industry," Chemical and
 Engineering News, June 11, 1979, p. 47.
^Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Quality—1978,
 U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, B.C., p. 178.
•^Council on Environmental Quality, Toxic  Substances, U.S.  Govern-
 ment Printing Office, Washington, B.C.,  April 1971.


                                 594

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remaining fairly constant since then.   Lead consumption has risen
steadily over the same 30-year period.

     Concurrently, evidence of the health and environmental dangers
associated with certain widely used substances has been accumulating.
For example:

     o  Kepone, an insecticide that has been implicated in
        nervous system disorders, was discharged into the
        James River from the mid-1960s until 1975, result-
        ing in closure of the fisheries there.

     o  Vinyl chloride, a chemical intermediate widely used
        in the plastics industry, has been implicated as
        causing liver cancer in industrial workers.

     o  Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are toxic and possibly
        carcinogenic chemicals widely used in the electrical
        industry.  They are found at levels exceeding 1 ppm in
        the tissues of almost 40 percent of the U.S. pop-
        ulation. ^

     The toxic substances problem is compounded because the health
and environmental risks posed by a chemical are often not discovered
until after the chemical has been in widespread use and is considered
important to agriculture, industry, and/or consumers.  This fact
highlights the importance of adequate and timely test procedures in
avoiding future environmental problems related to toxic substances.

     Public concern over increased use of toxic substances resulted
in a 1971 report on toxic substances by the President's Council on
Environmental Quality (CEQ).^  That report provided the impetus for
legislative proposals that ultimately led to enactment of the Toxic
Substances Control Act (TSCA) of 1976 (PL 94-469).  That Act gave EPA
direct control over most commercially produced (non-drug, non-
pesticide) toxic chemicals, not just their discharges and emissions.
^U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Minerals Year-
 book, 1969-1978.
%yan, J.P. and J.M. Hague, "Lead—1977," Mineral Commodity Pro-
 files, MCP-9, U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines,
 December 1977.
"Council on Environmental Quality, Environmental Statistics 1978,
 National Technical Information Service, March 1979, p. 131.
'Council on Environmental Quality, Toxic Substances, U.S. Govern-
 ment Printing Office, Washington, D.C., April 1971.
                                 595

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Similar concerns also  led to EPA regulation of pesticides under  the
Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act  (FIFRA) of 1947
(PL 80-104), as amended in  1972, 1975, and 1978.

      Control of toxic substances is at once one of  the highest  pri-
orities at EPA and one of the most ambitious tasks the Agency faces.
In the words of Administrator Douglas Costle,^

          I consider the implementation of the Toxic Sub-
          stances Control Act one of the most difficult
          challenges and important priorities now facing EPA.
          We have neglected the subtle but lethal effects of
          chemicals for decades.  Now, we must extend the
          frontiers of scientific knowledge to evaluate what
          those risks really are and find ways to control them.

11.2  LEGISLATION AND REGULATION

11.2.1  Introduction

     Control of toxic substances has a fairly recent history.  Since
1947, pesticides sold in interstate commerce have been regulated
under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act, but
almost 30 years elapsed before the Toxic Substances Control Act was
passed to deal with other toxic chemicals.

     The 1971 CEQ report on toxic substances identified three major
concerns:

     o  The existence of a gap in government authority to
        control production of toxic substances not
        included under food and drug laws

     o  The difficulty of monitoring and setting emission
        limits on substances that enter the environment
        only in very small amounts

     o  The fact that, after final use, toxic materials
        generally enter the environment—via land, water,
        or air

As the CEQ report was being drafted, the Nixon Administration pro-
posed legislation to address these concerns.   Five years of Congres-
sional attention finally led to passage of TSCA.
Q
°Costle, D., Statement at Public Meeting on Implementation of the
 Toxic Substances Control Act, Washington, D.C., March 22, 1977.
                                  596

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11.2.2  The Toxic Substances Control Act

     The Toxic Substances Control Act authorized EPA to obtain pro-
duction and test data on chemical substances from industry and to
regulate these substances as necessary to avoid "...an unreasonable
risk of injury to health or the environment."  If inadequate test
data are available, EPA may require chemical manufacturers or proces-
sors to perform the necessary tests at their own expense.  The manu-
facturer must notify EPA 90 days prior to commercial production of a
new chemical substance.  Regulatory actions possible under the Act
range from requiring labeling, to limiting, or prohibiting the manu-
facture, processing, distribution, use, or disposal of a toxic sub-
stance.  TSCA also allows information gathering by EPA inventories,
health and safety studies, and occupational exposures.  Finally, TSCA
is unique among environmental laws because it is designed to be a
gap-filling law.  That is, generally speaking, EPA is to defer to
other agencies for action if those agencies have statutory authority
under another law to deal with the problem at hand.  Also, if EPA
itself has sufficient authority to deal with the problem under some
other law (such as the Clean Air Act, RCRA, etc.), EPA is to use that
other authority.

11.2.3  Pesticide Regulation

     The Federal Environmental Pesticide Control Act of 1972 (PL
92-516), amending the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenti-
cide Act, marked several major changes in the law EPA then adminis-
tered.  One new requirement called for reregistration of pesticides
already being used.  Those pesticides with "unreasonable adverse
effects" would be registered for "restricted use" by certified appli-
cators only.  If use restriction still did not prevent adverse
effects, the Agency was authorized to suspend or to cancel a pesti-
cide's registration.

     The Reorganization Plan No. 3 of 1970 also delegated to the
Administrator of EPA the authority, under the Federal Food, Drug, and
Cosmetic Act, as amended (21 USC 346, 346a, 348), to determine toler-
ances for pesticide chemicals in or on raw agricultural commodities
and to monitor compliance with the tolerances and the effectiveness
of surveillance and enforcement.

     When the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act was
amended in 1975 (PL 94-140) and again in 1978 (PL 95-396), Congress
granted legislative relief to expedite registration and certification
under the law.  EPA was directed in 1975 to pay close attention to
the impact of the proposed action on the agricultural economy.  Pro-
vision was also made for the Secretary of Agriculture to comment
publicly on all regulations before they were promulgated.  Under the


                                 597

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Act, industry is required to provide testing data to EPA to confirm
the safety of pesticides for registration.  The amendments clarified
the rules for releasing these data and determining compensation for
sharing these data between formulators and producers.  As it now
stands, if EPA uncovers evidence of possible environmental or health
hazard in its review of a pesticide, a public notice, "Rebuttable
Presumption Against Registration" (RPAR), is issued (40 CFR 162.11).
The manufacturer or other interested parties must then rebut the
presumption of risk before the pesticide can be registered.

     In implementing the amended Act, EPA has given priority to fil-
ling gaps in the test data on pesticides in use before 1972, and to
expediting registration of new chemicals that provide substitutes for
old chemicals taken off the market.

     If the reregistration process were to consider each of the 1,400
pesticide active ingredients now in general use, it would take the
Agency at least 10 years to meet its responsibilities under the law.
Standards are planned for only 514 active ingredients, for many of
the 1,400 chemicals originally identified are not in any currently
registered product, are inert, or are similar in nature.  Also, a
setting of generic standards for the 514 active ingredients obviates
the need to individually consider each of the approximately 33,000
pesticides in current use.

11.2.4  Other Laws and Other Agencies

     Table 11-1 lists the various laws under which EPA regulates
toxic substances.  Since TSCA is a gap-filling law, deferring to
other applicable statutes, the first laws in the table are of con-
siderable regulatory importance.  Thus Section 112 of the Clean Air
Act has provided regulatory authority for hazardous air pollutants,
and Section 307 of the Clean Water Act, for toxic effluents.  Activi-
ties under these sections currently demand much of the Agency's
resources.  In contrast to Chapter 4, Air Pollutants, and Chapter 6,
Water Pollutants, of this Environmental Outlook, later portions of
this chapter will emphasize the substances considered under these two
sections of the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts, and will relate the
actions of the Agency to these sections.

     Section 112 of the Clean Air Act prescribed procedures for the
Administrator of EPA to list hazardous air pollutants, to establish a
National Emission Standard for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP) for
each pollutant, and to issue information on pollution control tech-
niques for these air pollutants.  The National Emission Standards for
Hazardous Air Pollutants apply to both new and existing emission
                                 598

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                                                    TABLE 11-1
                                       EPA AUTHORITY AND REGULATION OF TOXICS
                     LAW
        SECTION
           Clean Air Act of 1970,
           as amended 1977
             PRESENT LISTS
VO
Sec. 108 Criteria
Air Pollutants
                                       Sec. 112 Hazardous Air
                                       Pollutants
                                       Sec. 122 Certain
                                       Unregulated Pollutants
Six traditional pollutants, as listed
by the Administrator (25 November 1971).'

Administrator added lead as a criteria
pollutant (5 October 1978).b

Beryllium, asbestos, mercury (6 April
1973).c

Vinyl chloride (21 October 1976).d

Benzene (8 June 1977).e

Cadmium, arsenic, polycyclic organic
matter (soot), radioactive releases,
in 1977, sulfates, to be considered
for inclusion under sec. 108 or 112
(in the law).
           Federal Water Pollution
           Control Act of 1972, as
           amended 1978
Sec. 301 "Priority List"
                                       Sec. 304 Conventional
                                       Pollutants
                                                    (continued)
65 items in a consent decree  that
have been interpreted as 129 substances.
Criteria documents for these will be
published soon (in the law).

Biological oxygen demand, suspended
solids, fecal coliform, pH, and others
the Administrator may identify, but
not thermal pollution.  Criteria for
these are in (g)  (in the law).

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                                     TABLE 11-1 CONTINUED
          LAW
            SECTION
             PRESENT LISTS
                            Sec. 307 Toxic Substances
                            Standards
                            Sec. 311 Oil and Hazardous
                            Substances

                            Sec. 316 Thermal Discharges
                               Aldrin, DDT, Toxaphene, and benzidene
                               (12 January 1977).h

                               PCBs (2 February 1977).i

                               A few hundred substances which are
                               hazardous in spills (13 March 1978)J

                               Discharges from power plants (8 October
                               1974).k
Federal Insecticide,
Fungicide and Rodenti-
cide Act, as amended
1972, 1975 and 1978
Sec.  3 Registration and
Classification
                            Sec. 6 Cancellation
The Special Pesticide Review Office
of the Office of Pesticide Program
selects ingredients under the "RPAR"
process.-'-  All pesticides whose vtse is
restricted are listed in regulation
(Became effective 4 August 1975).ffl

Cancellation usually applies to a
specific set of uses, or the inadequacy
of a label.  About 40 substances have
had agency cancellation actions against
them (Under previous laws ability to
cancel was limited).11
                                          (continued)

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                                     TABLE 11-1 CONTINUED
           LAW
Safe Drinking Water
Act of 1974
         SECTION
Sec. 1412(a) Interim
Primary Standards
                            Sec. 1412(b) Interim
                            Secondary Standards
                                                                        PRESENT LISTS
9 inorganics, 6 pesticides.0
3 categories of radioactive
substances (24 December 1975).P

Guidelines for chloride, color,
copper, corrosivity, foaming
agents, iron, manganese, odor,
pH, sulfate, TDS, and zinc (19 July
1979).q
Marine Protection
Research and Sanitation
Act, as amended 1974
Sec. 102 and 105
Ocean Dumping
Materials and trace contaminants
prohibited in ocean dumping (11 January
1977).r
Resource Conservation
and Recovery Act of 1976
Sec. 3001 Hazardous
Materials
Categories of hazardous substances and
processes for the purpose of classifying
wastes (Proposed 18 December 1978).s
Toxic Substances Control
Act of 1976
Sec. 4(e) Priority List
A list of no more than 50, updated twice
yearly, of categories of substances
recommended for testing by the Interagency
Testing Committee (First version 4 October
1977, current revision 1 June 1979).t
                                         (continued)

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O
S3
                       LAW
             40 CFR 50
             43 FR 46246
                                                 TABLE  11-1  CONTINUED
SECTION
                                       Sec.  6(e) Polychlorinated
                                       Biphenyls

                                       Sec.  8(b) Inventory
                                       Final  rule by  FDA,  EPA
                                        (TSCA  Sec. 6),  and  CPSC
                                                                                   PRESENT LISTS
                      Bans on manufacture and distribution
                      (in the law).u

                      The inventory of chemicals now
                      manufactured are exempt from
                      "pre-manufacture notification"
                      (1 June 1979).v

                      Uses of haloalkanes (e.g.  freon)
                      in consumer products (17 March 1978).w
             40 CFR 61.2-5

            d40 CFR 61.6,7

            642 FR 29332

             Natural Resources Defense  Council v. Train, No.  75-172,  (D.C.D.C.)  (8 ERC  2120),  June  8,  1976.
            r
            'U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Quality Criteria for Water, U.S. Government Printing
             Office, Washington, D.C., July 1976.
            h
             40 CFR 129.4
             40 CFR 129.4
                                                     (continued)

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                                      TABLE 11-1 CONCLUDED

J40 CFR 116.4

k40 CFR 122.1

 Pesticides that the Special Pesticide Review Office has selected for "rebuttable presumption
 against registration" (RPAR) process are listed periodically in the "Special Pesticide Review
 Status Report," an unnumbered document.

m40 CFR 162.31

 A "quick reference guide" of these actions and their dates is as follows:
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Scientific Support Branch, Pesticides and Toxic Substances,
 Enforcement Division, Suspended and Cancelled Pesticides, Washington, D.C., May 1978.
 Since this pamphlet was issued, two additional substances have been cancelled.  They are, with
 the dates of the actions, Endrin, 25 July 1979; and Chlorobenzolate, 13 February 1979.

°40 CFR 141.11

P40 CFR 141.15

q44 FR 42195-202

r40 CFR 227

S43 FR 58946

 The first list was published in both the Federal Register (42FR55026) and TSCA Interagency
 Testing Committee, Initial Report of the TSCA Interagency Testing Committee to the Administrator,
 Environmental Protection Agency,  EPA 560-10-78/001, January 1978.  Each subsequent list was also
 accompanied by a similar report.   The most recent list, in 44 Federal Register 31866-889, lists
 all substances recommended to date.

U43 FR 31514

 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, A Toxic Substances Control Act Initial Inventory, Vol. I-VI,
 GPO 055-007-00004-7, 055-007-00003-9, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.

W43 FR 11301

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sources.  Section 122 directed the Administrator to consider radio-
active pollutants, cadmium, arsenic, and polycyclic organic matter
for inclusion in the Section 112 list.  Eleven toxic substances
(asbestos, arsenic, beryllium, cadmium, chromium, lead, mercury,
nickel, polychlorinated biphenyls, polycyclic organic matter, and
vanadium) were appraised as candidates for the first list.   The
initial list was limited to asbestos, beryllium, and mercury; stan-
dards for these were promulgated in April 1973 (38 FR 8820).  Vinyl
chloride standards were added in October 1976 (41 FR 46560), and
benzene was added to the list in June 1977 (42 FR 29332).  Arsenic
and cadmium are currently being considered for the list.  Several
other substances are now undergoing health assessments for toxicity
in air and may be added later to the list.  New regulatory activities
under Section 112 are awaiting the Administrator's final action on an
Agency airborne carcinogen policy.

     Section 307 (Toxic and Pretreatment Effluent Standards) of the
Clean Water Act of 1977 (PL 95-217) specifically identified an ini-
tial list of 65 toxic pollutants, or combinations of pollutants, and
authorized the Administrator to revise the list from time to time.
Each pollutant listed is subject to point source effluent limitations
by application of best available technology economically achievable.
In addition, the Administrator may establish a more stringent efflu-
ent standard (or prohibition).  Finally, the Administrator may estab-
lish pretreatment standards, or new source performance standards
(NSPS), for any source introducing pollutants into a publicly owned
treatment works.

     The initial list and standards of Section 307 of the Clean Water
Act of 1977 derive from a 1976 settlement agreement in U.S. District
Court, in four cases challenging EPA's regulation of toxic pollutants
under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act.^  EPA subsequently
expanded the list by selecting organic compounds representative of
the classes of compounds in the initial list of 65.  The selection
process produced a new list of 129 "priority pollutants" (114 organic
compounds, 13 metals, asbestos, and cyanide).  The Agency is deter-
mining the presence of these pollutants in industrial effluents.
Water quality criteria for all 65 classes of priority pollutants have
been listed for public comment, and final criteria are now in prep-
aration.  A recent memorandum opinion and court order modified the
 ^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Enforcement,
  National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants—A
  Compilation, EPA-340/1-79-006, April 1979, p. 1-2.
^Natural Resources Defense Council v. Train, No. 75-172
  (D.C.D.C.) (8 ERC 2120), June 8, 1976.
                                 604

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 settlement agreement  by  setting a  schedule  for  promulgation  of  regu-
 lations  for  34  industrial  categories  (latest regulation—May 8,  1981)
 and extending EPA's deadline  for meeting all of  its obligations  under
 the agreement until June 30,  1984.n

     EPA's actions are also coordinated with those of other  agencies
 through  the  Interagency  Regulatory Liaison  Group (IRLG).   The IRLG
 currently consists of representatives  from  the  Food and Drug Adminis-
 tration  (FDA) (which  regulates food,  drugs, and  cosmetics);  the  U.S.
 Consumer Product Safety  Commission (which regulates dangerous con-
 sumer products); the  Occupational  Safety and Health Administration
 (OSHA) (which regulates  toxic substances in the  workplace);  the  Food
 Safety and Quality Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture
 (USDA);  and  EPA.  The recent publication of an  IRLG work group
 report,  Scientific Bases for  Identification of  Potential Carcinogens
 and Estimation  of Risks, is a major step toward  the goal of  a common,
 government-wide carcinogens policy (44 FR 39858).12  Additional
 steps await  the October  1979 conclusion of  the public comment period.
 The report itself has no regulatory status, but  it may be  used as a
 basis for action by individual agencies.

     Other activities on toxics are carried out  by a 17-agency Toxic
 Substance Strategy Committee formed in response  to the directive in
 President Carter's 1977 Environmental Message to coordinate  Federal
 research and regulatory activities concerning toxic chemicals.13
 The Interagency Testing Committee, which determines priorities for
 the testing  of chemicals for toxicity, is discussed later  in this
 chapter.

 11.3  DATA SOURCES AND QUALITY

     Information presented here includes data on trends in production
 in the chemical industry, selected high-volume toxic organic chemi-
 cals, inorganic chemicals  (heavy metals), and pesticides production.
Most forecasts of future trends are based on the SEAS High Growth
 Scenario and are consistent with SEAS-derived projections presented
 elsewhere in this report.  (See Chapter 2 for a description  of the
 SEAS Scenarios.)  Other historical and prospective data are  taken
 from industrial and trade compilations.
^Natural Resources Defense Council v. Costle, No. 75-172
  (D.C.D.C.) (12 ERC 1833), March 9, 1979.
^"Report on Carcinogen Identification, Human Risk Assessment
  Issued by IRLG," Chemical Regulation Reporter, Vol. 2, 1979, p.
  2039.
13Carter, J., Message to the Congress of the United States, The
  White House,  May 23,  1977.

                                  605

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11.4  ORGANIZATION OF CHAPTER

     The remainder of this chapter is divided into three major sec-
tions:  identification of toxic substances, trends in production, and
impacts and implications.

11.5  IDENTIFICATION OF TOXIC SUBSTANCES

11.5.1  Introduction

     The intent of TSCA, FIFRA, and other related laws is to protect
public health and the environment against unreasonable risk of injury
posed by the release of economically justified toxic substances into
the environment.  To meet the concerns expressed through these laws,
appropriate regulatory actions must be based on adequate knowledge of
the toxicity and environmental fate of individual chemicals and chem-
ical mixtures.  The enormous number of chemicals on the market, and
the large number added each year, make acquisition of such knowledge
a formidable task.  Given limited resources, it is necessary to pre-
select chemicals prior to undertaking extensive toxicity testing and
environmental fate studies.  Selection criteria must be based on
limited data, but the data must afford some estimate of the potential
risks posed by a chemical.

11.5.2  Toxicity Versus Risk

     Toxicity is an inherent characteristic of a chemical substance
that defines the degree of adversity an organism will experience when
exposed to the substance at a certain dose level.  Developing ade-
quate protection of public health and the environment requires more
than just knowledge of a chemical's toxicity; knowledge of the risk
posed by the chemical is also needed.  Risk refers to the likelihood
that a chemical will be present at a certain exposure level that will
cause dosages deleterious to an organism.  A chemical can have
relatively high inherent toxicity but present a low risk if likely
exposures result in insufficient dosages to produce any toxic effect.
Therefore, to identify and regulate toxic chemicals, criteria must be
established that adequately assess risk by determining the potential
exposures to a chemical as well as its inherent toxicity.

11.5.3  Exposure

     To determine which chemicals should receive priority for testing
and possible regulation, rough estimates of likely exposures can be
obtained from several sources:
                                  606

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     o  Current or proposed production rates

     o  Data on probable environmental releases from produc-
        tion, use, and disposal through mass-balance
        engineering assessments

     o  Study of basic chemical/physical properties compared
        with well-characterized chemicals, to indicate the
        possible transformation/transportation the substance
        would undergo in the environment

Such information may also identify those chemical agents whose re-
leases are likely to be difficult to control but are not ubiquitous
in the environment; these agents should be given special considera-
tion when priorities are set for testing and assessing risks.

     In response to TSCA, the Interagency Testing Committee was
created to establish a priority list of chemicals to be recommended
to EPA for additional testing and possible regulation.  Choices for
the list have been based upon comparisons of production volumes,
estimated environmental releases, and likely population exposures;
substances already regulated, chemically inert, or previously well
characterized were deleted.  The list was then refined in light of
toxicological considerations.  (See footnote t, Table 11-1.)

11.5.4  Toxicity

     Acute Versus Chronic Toxicity

     The traditional technique in toxicity study is the lethality
dose determination, a short-term animal test that determines the dose
of a chemical agent which results in the death of 50 percent of the
test animal population (I^Q) within a specified time after admin-
istration.  However, in general, release of toxic agents into the en-
vironment is not likely to result in exposures capable of producing
acute effects.  Such acute exposures are apt to be limited to occupa-
tional situations or result only from major accidents such as spills.

     Prolonged or repeated exposures to low levels of chemical agents
in the environment can have deleterious, but often highly subtle,
effects on an entire population.  These types of effects constitute
chronic toxicity, which acute toxicological methods such as the
LD^Q test cannot identify.  This is readily illustrated by the
observation that body organs found to be targets in acute experimen-
tation are not always the targets identified following repeated expo-
sures to low doses of the same chemical in chronic experimentation.
Cause-effect relationships are often not as apparent in chronic expo-
sures as they are in studies of acute toxic exposure.  The observable

                                  607

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toxic response may be the result of continual storage of low doses of
the chemical until a toxic threshold is breached; the action of its
metabolic products in the body, with subsequent mobilization and re-
distribution; the repeated and additive insults on target organs,
enzymes, or other body systems; or a long-delayed response to a
single or time-limited exposure.  The insidious effects of low-level,
chronic exposures to toxicants may result in behavior modification,
mutagenic alterations, somatic cellular damage, loss of reproductive
capabilities, cancer initiation, or chronic cellular damage to any or
all of the organs and systems of the body.  Moreover, the complexity
of the possible chronic effects posed by toxic chemicals can be
greatly increased when one looks beyond single-species impacts to
assess the potential ecological consequences of these chemicals in
the environment.  There is a need for tests to screen chemicals for
their chronic toxicity and these tests need to be sensitive to pre-
dicting possible ecological as well as single-species impacts.

     Screening

     It is a substantial undertaking to identify among the thousands
of chemicals produced, those chemicals with the potential for elic-
iting any of the adverse responses mentioned above.  Preliminary
screening can be done by comparing a compound's chemical/structural
properties with those of well-characterized toxicants.  But even with
such screening, a large number of chemicals would need additional
testing, and many chemicals with important toxicological implications
could be missed.

     A number of short-term tests have been developed for use in pre-
dicting carcinogenicity and for possible use in the rapid screening
of chemical compounds.  These short-term tests are primarily limited
to identification of mutagenic toxicity which frequently correlates
with mammalian carcinogenicity.  Neither complete identification of
all toxicants having chronic effects, nor the extrapolation of re-
sults gained through short-term testing to possible effects in
humans, is accepted practice, although initiatives are well underway
to explore the potential.  Moreover, short-term tests for other
chronic effects, such as behavior modification or certain organ dis-
orders, are limited or non-existent.  Thus, "the state-of-the-art and
our understanding of short-term tests are not sufficiently advanced
to allow such tests to be used in place of long-term tests."^
However, our understanding is improving with an expectation that
short-term testing can be used to identify, at least qualitatively,
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Support Document Test Data
  Development Standards;  Chronic Health Effects Toxic Substances
  Control Act, Section 4, EPA-560/11-79-001, May 1979, p. 1-21.
                                 608

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long-term health effect potential.  Also, EPA's Office of Research
and Development has developed several short-term tests to screen
chemicals for their potential to be ecologically disruptive; these
tests are now undergoing extensive "round-robin" testing and valida-
tion.  The expense of complex and/or long-term animal studies re-
quires continued utilization of these short-term assays and efforts
to continue their development.

11.6  TRENDS

11.6.1  Introduction

     The environmental outlook for toxic substances will remain in-
complete, as well as unclear, until improved toxicity testing and
risk assessment methods have been developed for analyzing the hazards
posed by the thousands of chemicals yet to be tested.  However, a
limited assessment of the environmental outlook for toxic substances
can be achieved by:

     1.  Following trends in the production and environmental re-
         leases of known or highly suspected hazardous substances,
         thus indicating potential environmental exposure levels and
         resulting impacts.

     2.  Identifying and defining political, social, or economic
         trends that may impact on current or proposed production
         rates of chemicals.  Such information may result in reset-
         ting priorities for chemicals to be tested or possibly reg-
         ulated.

     3.  Following trends in relevant indicators of environmental and
         public health, such as accumulations of toxicants in soil,
         sediment, wildlife, food, or human tissues; incidence rates
         of birth defects, cancers, spontaneous abortions, or other
         health disorders; and species diversity, populations of
         critical species, or energy flow/nutrient cycling of crucial
         ecosystems.

     This discussion is limited primarily to trends in the production
of known or highly suspect hazardous chemical substances.  These
trends are presented in four categories:  chemical industry produc-
tion (overall chemical activity); high-volume toxic organic chemi-
cals; inorganics (heavy metals); and pesticides.  The last section on
implications discusses trends of relevant indicators of environmental
and public health—such as accumulation of toxic residues in various
parts of our environment and incidence of cancer.
                                 609

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11.6.2  Trends in Chemical Industry Production

     Over the past quarter century, production growth rates for basic
chemicals, chemical products, and synthetic material industries have
been very large.  About 50,000 synthetic chemicals are currently pro-
duced and used in significant quantities,   and in recent years
EPA's premanufacturing notice program under TSCA has identified about
500 new chemicals introduced annually.  Although the number of toxic
chemicals is limited, aggregated chemical industry production figures
may indicate considerable potential exposure to toxic chemicals in
the environment.

     In 1971, the Council on Environmental Quality estimated that
synthetic organic chemicals production increased at a 15 percent
average annual rate from 1958 to 1968.^  More recent data^
indicate that the annual rate of growth in production in all chemical
industries averaged 6 percent from 1968 through 1978, twice the
growth rate for total industrial production.  Over that period, pro-
duction of plastics averaged an 11 percent annual growth rate.  The
rate of growth in production of organic chemicals in the 50 highest
production chemicals increased an average of 5.7 percent a year to
172 billion pounds in 1978.18

     Production rates in the chemical industries are shown in Figure
11-1.  Production data for basic chemicals, synthetic materials
(polymers), chemical products, and total manufacturing are plotted
for 1968 through 1978.  In addition, production data from the SEAS
High Growth Scenario for chemicals, miscellaneous chemical products,
and plastic materials and resins project continued high growth rates
in these industries.  Past and future strong growth in the chemical
industries, stronger than the growth of total manufacturing, is
clearly indicated.

     Aggregated production data give at best a qualitative measure of
the magnitude of potential toxic materials problems.  However, esti-
mates of future toxics hazards based on industrial production data
are a good initial step in assessment.  They also indicate the quan-
tities of materials that must be dealt with under TSCA or RCRA
guidelines.
l-*Ames, B.N. , "Identifying Environmental Chemicals Causing Muta-
  tions and Cancers," Science, Vol. 204, 1979, p. 587.
^Council on Environmental Quality, Toxic Substances, U.S. Govern-
  ment Printing Office, Washington, B.C., 1971, p. 3.
^"Facts and Figures for the U.S. Chemical Industry," Chemical and
  Engineering News, June 11, 1979, p.  36.
18Ibid, p. 35.

                                  610

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    350
o
o
 II
r^
vO
X
w
n
z
z
o
M
H
O
P
Q
O
Pi
PL.
Pi
H
O>
CD
Q
Z
    300
250
200
150
    100
      1965


        Source;
                                           BASIC CHEMICALS
                                         CHEMICAL PRODUCTS
                                         \
                                     TOTAL MANUFACTURING

                                               I
                1970
1975
YEAR
1980
             "Facts and Figures  for the U.S. Chemical Industry",
             Chemical and Engineering News, June 11, 1978, p. 36.
             Used with permission.
                             FIGURE 11-1
           SOME CHEMICAL INDUSTRY PRODUCTION TRENDS
                                611

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11.6.3  High Volume Toxic Organic Chemicals

     Historical production data,  along with production trends pro-
jected by the SEAS High Growth Scenario, for benzene and several
organic chemicals closely tied to the production of the ubiquitous
polymer polyvinyl chloride (PVC), are shown in Figure 11-2.  These
high-volume chemicals were chosen as examples because vinyl chloride
(the monomer from which PVC is produced) and benzene have been
demonstrated to be toxic and have been the subjects of considerable
regulatory action.  The PVC intermediate ethylene dichloride is
currently undergoing assessment as a suspected carcinogen in air.
Significantly, regulation is not  diminishing either measured
production or projected trends.

     Vinyl Chloride

     The production of vinyl chloride has risen at a 9 percent aver-
age annual rate for the past decade, reaching 7 billion pounds in
1978.19  Production data for the  past three years20 and SEAS High
Growth Scenario projections for polyvinyl chloride, the end product
of essentially all vinyl chloride production, indicate an even faster
growth rate in the future.

     In making vinyl chloride from the raw materials ethylene and
chlorine, the first step is to make ethylene dichloride (1,2-
dichloroethane).  This intermediate is then passed through a dehydro-
chlorination reaction which removes hydrogen chloride and yields
vinyl chloride.  Polymerization results in PVC resin, which is com-
monly sold as a fine powder.  The resin is subsequently fabricated
into a multitude of products from pastes or films following the ad-
dition of plasticizers (for upholstering materials, wallpaper, etc.)
to rigid products such as pipe and house siding formed by extrusion.
Toxicity concerns arise from exposure to ethylene dichloride, vinyl
chloride, hydrogen chloride, plasticizers (typically phthalate
esters), and PVC.  Effective emissions controls would limit exposure
to the first three compounds to workers in the production facility,
controlled under OSHA regulations.

     Evidence for vinyl chloride's toxicity and carcinogenicity in
both man and animals has accumulated over the quarter century of the
compound's production.  By the mid-1970s, a statistically significant
incidence of liver and lung cancers in vinyl chloride workers had
^"Facts and Figures for the U.S. Chemical Industry," Chemical and
  Engineering News, June 11, 1979, p. 35.
20"Key Chemicals:  Vinyl Chloride," Chemical and Engineering News,
  June 18, 1979, p. 9.

                                  612

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  35 -
  30
Q 25
Z

O
OM
z

2


I 20
H
U
   15
   10
   0
I
I
_L
                                         _L
                                         I
    1965
    1975
         1990
               2000
                              1985

                            YEAR
Sources:   a.  "Facts and Figures  for  the U.S. Chemical Industry",

             Chemical and Engineering News. June 11, 1979,  p.  37,

             Used with permission.

          b.  SEAS, High Growth Scenario, Inforum Output.

                          FIGURE 11-2

  PRODUCTION OF SELECTED HIGH VOLUME ORGANIC CHEMICALS
                        613

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                          ry -i
clearly been demonstrated.    Shortly thereafter, vinyl chloride
was demonstrated to be a mutagen in Salmonella.    The regulatory
process was set in motion, and in 1974, OSHA set permissible worker
exposures at 1 ppm for an 8-hour time weighted average and 5 ppm
averaged over any 15-minute period.23

     EPA promulgated vinyl chloride standards under Section 112 of
the Clean Air Act on October 21, 1976.  EPA's regulations for emis-
sions of vinyl chloride during manufacturing operations set limits on
emissions from certain unit operations and associated process equip-
ment; these controls are therefore more specific than OSHA regula-
tions.

     Since 1974 the chemical industry has developed systematic proce-
dures for decreasing vinyl chloride emissions and for meeting the
standards set by EPA and OSHA. ^  The equipment is monitored and
the workers' procedures are observed.  After emission points are
identified, methods are devised for reducing emissions to levels that
satisfy regulatory standards.

     Since 1974, the chemical industry has met EPA and OSHA standards
by retrofitting existing plants and by carefully engineering new
plants.  It is estimated that these measures have increased the capi-
tal cost of the plants by 20 to 40 percent.  However, the side bene-
fits derived were greater plant efficiency and higher plant operating
rates.^  As a result, PVC plastics are more than cost-competitive
with many rival materials and are widely desired for many uses.
Continuing production increases of 10 to 12 percent per year for the
next 5 years are forecast.^"  This growth will require enlargement
of present production plants and construction of some new plants.
Concurrently, the number of workers exposed to vinyl chloride will
increase and the total amount of emissions will also increase.
            C.H. , "Health Effects of Vinyl Chloride," Texas Reports
  on Biology and Medicine, Vol. 37, 1978.
 ^Ames, B.N., "Identifying Environmental Chemicals Causing Muta-
  tions and Cancers," Science, Vol. 204, 1979, p. 587.
^ Bochinski, J.H., K.S. Schoultz, and J.A. Gideon, "Pollution
  Control Practices—Meeting Emission Standards for Acrylonitrile,"
  Chemical Engineering Process, Vol. 75, 1979, p. 53.
24__

25Ibid.
26"Key Chemicals:  Vinyl Chloride," Chemical Engineering News,
  June 18, 1979, p. 9.
                                  614

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     Compounds and processes in PVC production are under continuing
EPA scrutiny.  Vinyl chloride, ethylene dichloride, and phthalate
esters are identified under Section 304 of the Clean Water Act as
priority pollutants, and water quality criteria have recently been
proposed for vinyl chloride (44 FR 15926).  EPA studies of industrial
effluents have identified phthalate esters as being ubiquitous,
ethylene dichloride in 50 percent of all industrial categories and
6.5 percent of effluent samples, and vinyl chloride in only 0.2 per-
cent of samples.2'  Clearly, vinyl chloride emissions are being
controlled, but the risk of exposure to the other chemicals must be
assessed.

     Benzene

     Benzene production exceeded 11 billion pounds in 1978, reflect-
ing average annual growth of 4 percent over the last decade.
SEAS projections indicate a continuation of that growth rate.

     Benzene, unlike vinyl chloride, is used by consumers as well as
industry.  Products for consumer use include laboratory solvents,
paint strippers, rubber cement, gasolines, engine oil flush, and gas
stove and lantern fuels. ^'^   Thus the potential for public expo-
sure is great, and the Consumer Product Safety Commission, EPA, and
OSHA have all been concerned with benzene's potential toxicity.

     Evidence is substantial that benzene in concentrations found in
the workplace has caused diseases of the blood and bone marrow,
particularly leukemia.-^  Consequently, benzene was added to the
list of hazardous air pollutants under Section 112 of the Clean Air
Act in June 1977.   At present, benzene is the only substance on that
list that has not been regulated; but EPA has prepared a health
effects assessment, an environmental exposure assessment, and a
9 7
'•'Schaffer, R.B. and J. Riley, Occurrence of Priority Pollutants
  in Industrial Effluents, paper presented to the Air Pollution
  Control Association, Gainesville, Florida, February 15, 1979.
28"Facts and Figures for the U.S. Chemical Industry," Chemical and
  Engineering News, June 11, 1979, p. 35.
29"Gas Stove, Lantern Fuel, Engine Oil Flush Most Affected by
  Benzene Ban," Chemical Regulation Reporter, Vol. 2, 1979,  p. 1783.
30Young, R.J.,  R.A. Rinsky, P.F. Infante, and J.K. Wagoner,
  "Benzene in Consumer Products," Science, Vol. 199,  1978, p. 248.
     . Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of Research and
  Development,  Office of Health and Ecological Effects,  Assessment
  of Health Effects on Benzene Germane to Low-Level Exposure,
  EPA-600/1-78-061, September 1978.
                                 615

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population risk assessment.  One report suggests that a benzene regu-
latory standard will be proposed in early 1980. ^

     Activities under Section 307 of the Clean Water Act have listed
benzene as a priority pollutant (43 FR 4108), resulted in proposed
water quality criteria for benzene as a potential carcinogen (44 FR
15926), and identified benzene in effluent in 29 percent of samples
and 25 of 32 industrial categories surveyed.

     A proposed OSHA standard for benzene was struck down by the
Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals on October 5, 1978.  The appeal has
now been taken to the Supreme Court, where oral arguments will be
heard during the October 1979 term.3^  The deadline for a proposed
ban of benzene in consumer products by the Consumer Product Safety
Commission has been extended.•*->

     The regulatory experience with vinyl chloride and benzene sug-
gests that, while regulating industrial exposure is fairly easy, reg-
ulating exposure of the general population is more difficult.  If
vinyl chloride is a valid indicator, regulation need not impair, but
indeed may enhance, industrial productivity and profitability.

11.6.4  Inorganic Chemicals (Heavy Metals)

     Historical U.S. demand and projected trends for three nonferrous
metals (mercury, lead, and cadmium) are shown in Figure 11-3.  These
substances have stimulated regulatory actions by their well-
publicized adverse human health effects.  The press has reported the
health hazards of ingestion of lead contained in paints by children,
and the ingestion of mercury in seafood, as well as the effects of
occupational exposures.

     Figure 11-3 illustrates that:

     o  Despite fluctuations over the last 10 years, demand
        for mercury and cadmium has slowly declined, while
        demand for lead has increased
32"First EPA Air Emission Standard to Be Proposed in Early 1980,"
  Chemical Regulation Reporter, Vol. 3, 1979, p. 730.
33Schaffer, R.B., and J. Riley, Occurrence of Priority Pollutants
  in Industrial Effluents, paper presented to the Air Pollution
  Control Association, Gainesville, Florida, February 15, 1979.
•^"Benzene Case Will Be Argued During Supreme Court's Fall Term,"
  Chemical Regulation Reporter, Vol. 2, 1979, p. 2245.
35"Proposed Benzene Ban Deadline Extended Six Months by CPSC,"
   Chemical Regulation Reporter, Vol. 2, 1978, p. 1285.
                                 616

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                                   1990
                                           2000
    a.
    b.
    c.
Cadmium:   Personal Communication,  John M. Lucan, Bureau
of Mines,  U.S. Department of the Interior,  September
1979.   Bureau of Mines, Lead and Mercury Minerals Year-
books ,  U.S.  Department of Interior,  September 1979.
SEAS High  Growth Scenario, Air Particulates.
Lead is in units of hundred million pounds.
                      FIGURE 11-3
SELECTED HEAVY METALS—UNITED STATES CONSUMPTION
             AND ATMOSPHERIC RESIDUALS
                          617

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     o  Net residuals of lead in air are projected to decline
        dramatically with the elimination of tetraethyl lead
        in automotive fuels

Also the presence of all three metals as dissolved solids in water is
projected to decline markedly by 1985 with implementation of best
available technology under the Clean Water Act; pretreatment regula-
tions for electroplaters (major sources of metals in water) have re-
cently been set.  All three metals have been regulated for a number
of years under the permit program of the National Pollutant Discharge
Elimination System (NPDES).

     Mercury

     Of the three metals under discussion, mercury has been regulated
longest by EPA.  Together with asbestos and beryllium, mercury was
designated a hazardous air pollutant in 1971 under Section 112 of the
Clean Air Act.  In April 1973, National Emission Standards for Haz-
ardous Air Pollutants were applied to stationary sources that process
mercury ore, and to those that use mercury chlor-alkali cells to pro-
duce chlorine and alkali metal hydroxides.  Mercury is also identi-
fied as a priority pollutant under Section 307 of the Clean Water Act
of 1977, and since its high vapor pressure makes it particularly
onerous in the workplace, it is regulated as an air contaminant by
OSHA (29 CFR 1910.1000).  Mercury in the form of organic mercury
compounds are particularly hazardous for they are readily stored in
the tissues of humans and other animals.

     The principal categories of demand for mercury are caustic soda
and chlorine production, electrical applications, instruments, and
paints.  In the last 10 years, use of mercury in the pulp and paper
industry has been eliminated; it has declined in caustic soda and
chlorine production, but has increased in electrical applications.
Solid-state devices may obviate the need for mercury in many electri-
cal applications, but as long as mercury battery usage grows, demand
for mercury will remain strong.

     Lead

     In 1973, EPA initially promulgated regulations for "phase-down"
of lead in gasoline.  A 1975 suit brought by the Natural Resources
Defense Council (NRDC) against EPA-*6 resulted in categorizing lead
as a criteria air pollutant under Section 108 of the Clean Air Act.
^"Natural Resources Defense Council, et al. v. Train, 411 F.
  Supp. 864 (S.D.N.Y., 1976).
                                 618

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EPA's final air quality criteria and proposed regulations for state
implementation plans were promulgated on October 5, 1978 (43 FR
46246).  Lead is also identified as a priority water pollutant, and
on March 15, 1979, notice was given of proposed criteria (44 FR
15926).

     OSHA's attempts to set a standard for exposure to lead in the
workplace are currently in litigation.  The standard set in November
1978 was immediately challenged by both industry and labor.  Oral
arguments in the case are slated for October 1979 in the D.C. Court
of Appeals.  Recently the Lead Industries Association has petitioned
this same court for a review of the lead criteria setting under the
Clean Air Act.37

     As is discussed in Chapter 4, following phase-down of lead in
gasoline, lead emissions from motor vehicles in most areas should be
drastically reduced.  Emissions from other sources (e.g., metal pro-
cessing, electricity generation) are expected to increase by the year
2000.

     Cadmium

     Regulation of cadmium is more recent.  Chronic and acute human
exposures to cadmium via inhalation and ingestion are known to cause
a variety of serious health effects such as pulmonary emphysema and
kidney damage.   Comparisons of renal cadmium levels in specimens
taken in human autopsies in this and the last century suggest that
cadmium body burdens are increasing.3"  There is also evidence that
cadmium may be a carcinogen.3^,40  j^ March 1979, EPA gave notice
of proposed criteria under the Clean Water Act (44 FR 15926) and has
been conducting health effects studies and carcinogen assessments
since 1977 to develop criteria under Section 122 of the Clean Air
3'"Clean Air Act Lead Standard Challenged for Alleged Improprie-
  ties," Chemical Regulation Reporter, Vol. 3, August 3, 1979, p.
  744.
3°Elinder, C.G. and T. Kjellstrom, "Cadmium Concentration in
  Samples of Human Kidney Cortex from the 19th Century," Ambio,
  Vol. 6, 1977, p. 270.
39u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and
  Development, Cadmium Health Effects;  Implications for
  Environmental Regulations, External Draft, Review Copy, July 1979,
  p. 27.
^°Smith, R.J., "Toxic Substances:  EPA and OSHA Are Reluctant
  Regulators," Science, Vol. 203, 1979, p. 28.
                                  619

-------
Act, under Section 405 of the Clean Water Act, and under Section 4004
of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. *

     Although cadmium consumption in the United States has gradually
declined, SEAS projections of increased lead and zinc smelting sug-
gest that net cadmium emissions will increase gradually.  Also,
cadmium is found in elevated levels in sewage treatment sludge from
many sources.  In addition, cadmium and its salts are involved in new
solar cell and battery technologies.  If one of these new technolo-
gies becomes prominent, cadmium demand and resulting residuals may
rise sharply.

11.6.5  Pesticides

     Figure 11-4 illustrates apparent domestic (U.S.) consumption of
insecticides.  Several trends may be identified for the years 1965-
1980.  Note that the 1980 numbers represent a range for projections
from 1974.  Total insecticide apparent domestic consumption is in-
creasing only slightly, about 1 percent per year.  This trend re-
flects stable acreages in crops and emphasis upon lower insecticide
usage or controlled application.

     The market share held by organophosphates is increasing, while
that of organochlorines (chlorinated hydrocarbons) is decreasing.
Restrictions on chlorinated pesticides (DDT, Aldrin/Dieldrin, 2,4-D,
etc.) have been largely responsible for this shift.

     Inorganic insecticides (calcium and lead arsenates), continuing
a 30-year trend,^ are falling to insignificant levels of consump-
tion following their replacement by organics, their regulation as
contaminants in drinking water and air, and manufacturers' concern
for potential EPA actions under FIFRA (issuance of Rebuttable Pre-
sumption Against Registration notices).

     The most significant expansion is in carbamate consumption,
about 8 percent per year.  Carbamates, like organophosphates, are
acetylcholinesterase inhibitors that are less persistent than organ-
ochlorines both in the physical environment and in organisms.  Thus,
although they may be more or less toxic than organochlorines, they
exhibit much less biomagnification in the food chain.
* U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and
  Development, Cadmium Health Effects;  Implications for
  Environmental Regulations, External Draft, Review Copy, July 1979,
  Preface.
^Stanford Research Institute, Chemical Economics Handbook,
  573.2400A, August 1972.
                                  620

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                        TOTAL APPARENT DOMESTIC
                           CONSUMPTION
                         ORGANOPHOSPHATES
                              TOTAL
                          CARBAMATES
                            TOTAL
                          CHLORINATED
                           HYDROCARBONS - TOTAL
                           (o)
                       *- OTHER-ORGANIC
                         BOTANICALS


                         INORGANICS (A)
1
1965
1980
                  1970     1975
                      YEAR
Source:   Stanford Research Institute, Chemical Economics  Handbook,

         573.3007, July 1976.  Used with permission.

                          FIGURE 11-4
      APPARENT DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF INSECTICIDES
                   621

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     Another pesticide trend is cited in Chapter 6, Water Pollutants.
Fungicide discharges are projected to increase, largely because of
increased acreage in soybeans.  (See Chapter 6, Section 6.3.3.)
Also, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Office of Technology
Assessment project major increases in herbicide usage over the next
twenty years with the expansion of no-till or low-till agricultural
practices.  This may well be the most significant trend for the rest
of the century.

11.7  IMPACTS AND IMPLICATIONS

11.7.1  Introduction

     Any environmental outlook on the impacts and implications of
toxic substances must be considered as incomplete and highly tenta-
tive.  Few of the chemicals currently on the market have undergone
the testing necessary for adequately defining their potential risk to
either human health or the environment.  The environmental impacts of
toxic substances will not be clear until methods for rapid and com-
plete toxicity testing of at least major chemical classes have been
developed and used.  A limited assessment of the possible impacts can
be made from trends seen in production and environmental releases of
known or highly suspected toxicants.

     Known toxicants have been identified from their deleterious
effects on workers in the occupational environment where the poten-
tial exists for acute exposures.  Even larger numbers of toxicants
have been identified in animal experimentation or isolated cell sys-
tem studies.  Many of these toxicants are known to be released into
the environment and have been found in the ambient air and drinking
waters of human communities.  However, the concentrations of these
toxicants in the general environment are usually very low in compari-
son to the dosages utilized in animal studies or realized in occupa-
tional exposures.  High environmental levels of toxicants would be
likely to occur only as results of major accidents, and would be
generally localized to small geographic areas.

     Direct evidence of any adverse effects resulting from the low,
but chronic, environmental exposures to toxicants is sparse and often
inconclusive.  Nevertheless, various kinds of data are now available
which associate environmental factors, including pollution, with can-
cer incidence.  Increased congenital abnormalities in the young of
parents who have been exposed to certain toxicants in the environment
have also been noted.  Moreover, since many toxicants are highly
stable in the environment, the possibility exists for physical accu-
mulation within various environmental compartments to levels posing
hazards of acute toxicities.  Of even greater concern is the ability
of certain classes of toxicants to accumulate through food chains as


                                  622

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a result of their persistent nature and their affinity for biological
tissues.  The data that describe these impacts of toxic substances
are presented in the following sections with an attempt to describe
what the implications of these impacts could be in regard to the
environmental outlook.

11.7.2  Accumulation and Bioconcentration

     As stated previously, various chemicals have been found to be
highly stable in the environment, by virtue of their resistance to
chemical, photochemical, or microbial degradations.  The chemicals
most often cited for their environmental persistence are primarily
chlorinated hydrocarbons (or organochlorines), such as the pesticides
Mirex, Dieldrin, and DDT, and the PCB dielectric fluids used in
capacitors and transformers.  The resistant nature of these chemicals
to environmental degradation can result in their physical accumula-
tion within various environmental compartments to levels which may
pose hazards of toxicity.

     Many of the persistent organochlorines, including those men-
tioned above, also possess an inherent affinity for biological tis-
sue, and as a result of natural cycling of nutrients through the food
chain, these chemicals tend to bioconcentrate in the tissues of spe-
cies representing the apex of food chains.  The extent of this bio-
concentration phenomenon is indicated by comparing concentrations of
organochlorine pesticide residues in agricultural soils (see Table
11-2), where these compounds were intentionally released, with the
concentrations found in wildlife samples of fish and birds (Tables
11-3 through 11-6).  Man, as the apex species of several food chains,
has not escaped the accumulation of these chemical residues in his
tissues (see Table 11-7).  Levels of certain chlorinated hydrocarbons
recently found in human mother's milk are shown in Table 11-8.  Other
organochlorines (such as Mirex, Kepone, and Toxaphene) not assayed in
these particular studies are also capable of accumulating in food
chains.

     Many of the organochlorines that bioconcentrate through food
chains have been shown to be carcinogenic in animal studies and have
been proven mutagenic in isolated cell assays.  These residues may
also pose hazards of acute toxicities to wildlife when the organ-
ism's fat stores containing the residues are mobilized for nutrition
during migration, hibernation, or other stresses of low food intake
or high activity.  Bioaccumulation of DDT residuals has also been
                                  623

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                             TABLE 11-2
   PESTICIDE RESIDUES IN AGRICULTURAL SOILS3, FY 1969-FY 1974b
                   (ppm dry weight, geometric mean)
                     FY1969   FY1970
FY1972
FY1973
FY1974
DDTRC
Aldrin
Dieldrin
Aldrin/Dieldrin
Toxaphene
Chlordane
Heptachlor
Heptachlor Epoxide
Total:
Chlordane, Hep-
tachlor, Epoxide
.0148
.0031
.0088
.0119
.0025
.0038
.0008
.0014


.0060
.0125
.0034
.0104
.0138
.0011
.0046
.0013
.0017


.0076
,0131
.0024
.0097
.0121
.0045
.0035
.0010
.0010


.0055
.0100
.0021
.0090
.0111
.0035
.0034
.0006
.0012


.0052
.0073
.0008
.0066
.0074
.0017
.0006
.0003
.0010


.0019
aData were collected from 34 states, except that for FY 1972.
 Heptachlor and Heptachlor epoxide data were collected from 37
 states.
t>Not measured in 1971.
CDDTR includes DDT and its related derivatives.

Source:  Adapted from the Council on Environmental Quality, Environ-
         mental Statistics 1978, National Technical Information
         Service, March 1979, p. 128.
                                 624

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                          TABLE 11-3
            TOXIC RESIDUES IN U.S. FISH, 1969-1977
               AS EVIDENCE OF BIOCONCENTRATION
                     (ppm, geometric mean)
Year
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975°
1976/77
DDTa
1.06
.87
.67
.59
.40
.44
-
.36
Toxaphene
N.A.
N.A.
k <.05
.11
.11 -
.11
-
.35
Dieldrinb
.08
.08
.04
.07
.04
.08
-
.06
PCBs
1.06
1.07
.90
1.07
.71
.96
-
.87
NOTE:  Freshwater fish samples collected by Fish and
       Wildlife Service personnel in all 50 states as
       part of the National Pesticide Monitoring Pro-
       gram.  Two-thirds of the fish sampled are
       bottom-dwelling species such as carp, suckers,
       and catfish.  The remaining one-third of the
       fish sampled are predacious species such as
       trout, walleye, bass, and bluegill.  The
       whole fish is analyzed, not just the fillet.

alncludes DDT and its derivatives.
"Includes Aldrin.
cNot measured in 1975.

Source:  Adapted from the Council on Environmental Quality,
         Environmental Statistics 1978, National Technical
         Information Service, March 1979, p. 180.
                         625

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                             TABLE 11-4
        TOXIC RESIDULS IN TK, , UATFRFOWL BY FLYWAY, 1965-1976
                   AS EVIDENCE OF BIOCONCENTRATION
                              v.ppm)
_Year	

1965/66
1969
1972
1976
Pacific

 0.65b
 0.71
 0,34
 0.22
Central

 0. t^h
 0.30
 0,15
 0,28
Mississippi

  0.25b
  0.40
  0.37
  0.25
Atlantic

 0.70b
 1.03
 0.44
 0.32
JYear	

1965/66
1969
1972
1976
 Year

1965/66
1969
1972
1976
NOTES:   (1)
         (2)
Pacific
  .01
  .02
  .01
 0.02
 ____ DieJLdrin
Central
 0.02
 0,02
 0.03
Mississippi Atlantic
0.04
0.02
0.05
0.05
0.02
0.06
                                PCBs
Pacific
N.A.C
0.20
0.11
0.16
Centre
N.A.
0.20
0.10
0.15
                         Mississippi

                           N.A.
                           0.44
                           0.66
                           0.23
                              Atlantic

                               N.A.
                               1.29
                               1.24
                               0.52
 Data measured as mean, parts per million (ppm) wet
 we i gh t.

 Residues are measured in wings of adult mallards
 sampled in the continental United States as part
 of the National Pesticide Monitoring Program.
 Samples are dra\m from mallard wings sent to the
 Fish and Wildlife Service by sportsmen.  Residue
 level in wings reflect those found in the rest
 of the body.  Over 5,000 duck wings are analyzed
 during each year's collection period.
 aDDE  is  a  derivative  of DDT.
  Includes  DDT and  its metabolites.
 CN.A.  =  Not  available.

 Source:  Adapted from the Council  on Environmental Quality,
         Environmental Statistics  1978, National Technical
         Information  Service, March 1979, p.  182.
                                  626

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                             TABLE 11-5
             TOXIC RESIDUES IN U.S. STARLINGS, 1967-1976
                   AS EVIDENCE OF BIOCONCENTRATION .
                         (ppm, geometric mean)
 Year

1967/68
1970
1972
1974
1976C
DDEa

.579
.355
.387
.229
.254
Dieldrin

 .084
 .036
 .035
 .019
 .039
PCBs

 b
.358
.215
.068
.243
NOTE:  Samples collected through trapping or shooting throughout
       the continental United States by Fish and Wildlife Ser-
       vice personnel as part of the National Pesticides Moni-
       toring Program.  Feet, beaks, wingtips, and skins were
       removed and the remainder of the sample was analyzed.
       About 1,400 starlings are analyzed each year.  Statistics
       are presented in terms of wet weight.

aDDE is a derivative of DDT.
^Not measured.
Preliminary data.

Source:  Adapted from the Council on Environmental Quality,
         Environmental Statistics 1978, National Technical
         Information Service, March 1979, p. 184.
                                 627

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                             TABLE 11-6
       POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND TOXIC RESIDUES IN BROWN
                  PELICANS IN CALIFORNIA, 1969-1975
                   AS EVIDENCE OF BIOCONCENTRATION
Population Characteristics

Year
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975e
No.
Nests
Built
1,125
727
650
511
597
1,286
N.A.
No.
Young
Fledged
4
5
42
207
134
1,185
N.A.
No. Young
Fledged Per
Nest
.004
.007
.065
.405
.255
.922
N.A.
No.
Eggs in
Sample0
28
N.A.d
N.A.
10
4
39
4
Toxic Residues3

DDTC
(ppm)
1204
N.A.
N.A.
>221
183
97
113

PCBs
(ppm)
200
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
43
146
120
NOTE:  Areas studied were Southern California and Northwestern Baja
       California including Anacapa and Santa Cruz Islands and Isle
       Coranado Norte.  Concentrations of toxic residues are in eggs.

^Geometric mean concentration in eggs, ppm lipid weight basis.
bint act eggs only.
clncludes DDT and all its derivatives.
^Not available.
eAnacapa Island only.

Source:  Adapted from the Council on Environmental Quality,
         Environmental Statistics 1978, National Technical
         Information Service, March 1979, p. 185.
                                  628

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                             TABLE  11-7
          CHLORINATED HYDROCARBON RESIDUES3 IN HUMAN FAT
                   AS EVIDENCE OF BIOCONCENTRATION
                  (average of 168 Canadian samples)


Compound
PCB
Hexachlorobenzene
BHC (Lindane)
Oxychlordane
Trans-nonachlor
Heptachlor epoxide
Dieldrin
£,£'-DDE
o,p'-DDT
p,p'-TDE
p,p'-DDT
Amount'3
(fj.g/kg Wet
Weight)
907
62
65
55
65
43
69
2095
31
6
439
Percentage of
Samples Contain-
ing Residues
100
100
88
97
99
100
100
100
63
26
100
aMost are carcinogens.
"Values are means.

Source:  Adapted from Ames, B.N., "Identifying Environmental Chemi-
         cals Causing Mutations and Cancers," Science, Vol. 204,
         1979, p. 587.  Used with permission.
                                629

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                             TABLE 11-8
             SOME PESTICIDES IN THE MILK OF 1,400 WOMEN


Compound
DDE
DDT
Dieldrin
Heptachlor
epoxide
Oxychlordane
(3-BHC
PCBs
Number
Pos itive
(percent)
100
99
81
64

63
87
30b
Mean of
Pos itive
(fag/kg fat)a
3521
529
164
91

96
183
2,076

Maximum
(jig/kg fat)
214,167
34,369
12,300
2,050

5,700
9,217
12,600
34.5 percent = mean fat content.
b99 percent detectable PCBs:   (30 percent = >1,100 fig per
 kilogram of fat;  1,038 women.)   Environmental Protection
 Agency, 1977.

Source:  Adapted from Ames,  B.N., "Identifying Environmental Chemi-
         cals Causing Mutations  and Cancers," Science, Vol.  204,
         1979, pp. 582-593.   Used with permission.
                                 630

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associated with dysfunction of reproductive physiology in predatory
birds, through eggshell-thinning. ^

     Concern about the buildup of organochlorines in man and the envi-
ronment and their associated adverse effects has led to a cancella-
tion of most uses of DDT, Aldrin, Dieldrin, Kepone, and Mirex, and to
termination of PCB production.  Use restrictions, coupled with in-
creasing insect resistance, have resulted in a continual decrease in
organochlorine insecticide production with an associated increase in
the production of other types of insecticides, particularily the
organophosphate compounds.  This trend would be further heightened if
any major uses of Toxaphene, the most heavily used insecticide in the
United States, were curtailed as a result of recent tests indicating
mutagenicity^ and carcinogenicity. ^

     The environmental outlook in this area indicates likely improve-
ment but remains tentative.  The restrictive use of many major or-
ganochlorine pesticides should continue the trend toward decreasing
residues in human food (Table 11-9) and in human tissues (Table 11-
10), and in wildlife (see Tables 11-3 through 11-6).  On the other
hand, PCBs have become widespread throughout the population, although
tissue from over half of those individuals sampled contained resi-
duals of less than 1 ppm (Table 11-11).  The termination of PCB pro-
duction may result in a gradual decline of residuals similar to that
observed with DDT residues.  However, PCBs were primarily used as
dielectric fluids in capacitors and transformers.  As these closed-
system products reach their limit of useful life, of approximately
10-30 years, further PCB contamination may occur if the PCB fluid is
reused or disposed of improperly.

     Domestic restriction of production or use of persistent chemi-
cals does not preclude their use and subsequent environmental release
on an international scale.  Developing countries struggling to meet
their food needs are likely to continue to rely on the older,
cheaper, more persistent pesticides.
^Risebrough, R.w.,  J. Davis, and D.W. Anderson, "The Biological
  Impact of Pesticides in the Environment," in Gillett, J.W., ed.,
  Environmental Health Series 1, Oregon State University, 1970,
  pp. 40-53.
^Hooper, N.K., B.N. Ames, M.A. Salem, and J.E. Casida, "Toxa-
  phene, a Complex Mixture of Polychloroterpenes and a Major Insec-
  ticide, Is Mutagenic," Science, Vol. 205, 1979, p. 591.
^U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, National Can-
  cer Institute Carcinogenesis Technical Report, Series 37,  Publica-
  tion N1H 79-837, Washington, D.C., 1979.
                                  631

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                                                     TABLE 11-9
                                            DIET  INTAKE OF PESTICIDES3
                                                  FY 1966-FY 1974
                                                      (mg/day)
ro
Year
FY1966C
FY1967
FY1968
FY1969
FY1970
FY1971
FY1972
FY1973
FY19746
Pesticides,
Totalb
0.156
0.116
0.084
0.078
0.067
N.A.d
N.A.
0.061
0.052
Organochlorine
Insecticides
0.112
0.082
0.073
0.057
0.045
N.A.
N.A.
0.017
0.024
Organophosphorus
Insecticides
0.010
0.017
0.005
0.015
0.018
N.A.
N.A.
0.013
0.012
Carbamates
0.026
0.013
0.002
0.003
0.003
N.A.
N.A.
0.030
0.012
Herbicides
0.008
0.004
0.004
0.003
0.001
N.A.
N.A.
0.001
0.001
             aValues are determined  from  analyses  of  12  categories  of  foods  prepared from "market
              basket" samples  collected in major U.S.  cities  and  designed  to simulate the diet  of a
              15-20-year-old male.
             ^Rounding may create  inconsistencies  in  addition.
             cData for FY 1966 may not include all pesticides.
             dN.A.  = Not available.
             eTotal for FY 1974 does not  include 0.004 mg/day of  miscellaneous  pesticides.

             Source:   Adapted  from the Council on  Environmental Quality, Environmental Statistics
                      1978,  National Technical Information  Service, March  1979,  p.  127.

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                             TABLE 11-10
        TOTAL DDT EQUIVALENT RESIDUES IN HUMAN ADIPOSE TISSUE
               FROM GENERAL POPULATION, UNITED STATES
                              Residues
                         (ppm lipid weight)3
Years
Birth-14
15-44
45 and above
National
Summary
FY1970
4.47
7.53
8.88

7.88
FY1971
3.74
8.29
8.64

7.95
FY1972
3.03
7.23
7.96

6.88
FY1973
2.63
6.23
7.13

5.59
FY1974
2.32
5.46
6.97

5.02
NOTE:  Total DDT equivalent = (o,p'-DDT + p,p'-DDT) + 1.114 (o,p'-TDE
       + p,p'-TDE + p,p'-DDE + o,p'-DDE).

aResidues expressed are geometries means.

Source:  Adapted from Kutz, F.W.,  A.R. Yobs, S.C. Strassman, and J.F.
         Viar, "Pesticides in People," Pesticide Monitoring Journal,
         Vol. 11, 1977, p. 63.  Used with permission.
                                 633

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                             TABLE 11-11

                  RESIDUES OF PCBs IN HUMAN TISSUE,
                             FY 1972-FY 1975
                            PERCENT DETECTED WITH PCBs

Year
FY1972
FY1973
FY1974
FY1975
Sample
Size
4,100
1,277
1,047
779

Total3
74.0
75.5
90.9
94.3

<1 ppm
15.5
40.2
50.6
56.1

1-2 ppm
N.A.b
29.6
35.4
N.A.

1-3 ppm
50.7
N.A.
N.A.
27.6

>2 ppm
N.A.
5.5
4.9
N.A.

>3 ppm
7.9
N.A.
N.A.
10.7
aRounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
bN.A. = Not available.

Source:  Adapted from the Council on Environmental Quality,
         Environmental Statistics 1978, National Technical
         Information Service, March 1979, p.  131.
                                634

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     The outlook could be significantly altered by substitution of
new chemicals for the organochlorines.  For example, a current large
overcapacity in bromine production could urge utilization of new bro-
minated compounds as substitutes for the organochlorine chemicals.
But, since bromine and chlorine are both halogens, organic compounds
containing bromine may have physical/chemical properties such that
they could pose the same hazards of accumulation, bioconcentration,
and toxicity as the original chlorinated compounds.

     Other problems may result from the continuing trend toward re-
placing organochlorine insecticides with other types of pesticides,
particularly with organophosphate compounds.  The organophosphate
insecticides are among the most toxic, and of all the pesticides
used, these have been most often cited in both accidental mass poi-
       I £.                                       I "7
soning,^" and in occupational toxicity problems.    Moreover, it
was recently suggested that certain degradation products of organo-
phosphate insecticides could be highly stable, resisting further
degradation and possibly accumulating to significant levels in the
environment.^°  For these reasons, phasing out the persistent or-
ganochlorine compounds does not necessarily mean that the environment
will be protected.

11.7.3  Effects on Reproductive Functions

     Toxicants may affect the reproductive process in various ways—
many so subtle that only large-scale population studies over several
generations could detect them.  Such reproductive effects, however,
can hold much graver consequences for the continuation of a species
or even an entire ecosystem than any other acute or chronic toxic
effect.  Moreover, reproductive effects may occur at much lower doses
than those required to produce other acute or chronic adverse ef-
fects.  A toxicant may alter behavior in a manner which impedes
normal mating or parental behavior or may lead to dysfunction of
reproductive physiology.  Examples include the observed decrease of
sperm production in human males occupationally exposed to the
     . Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Secretary's
  Commission on Pesticides, Report of the Secretary's Commission on
  Pesticides and Their Relationship to Environmental Health,  U.S.
  Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1969.
^'California Department of Public Health, Occupational Diseases in
  California Attributed to Pesticides and Other Agricultural Chemi-
  cals, 1969, Bureau of Occupational Health and Environmental Epi-
  demiology, Sacramento, California, 1969.
^8Daughton, D.G. and D.P.H. Hsieh, "Parathion Utilization by Bac-
  terial Symbionts in a Chemostate," Applied and Environmental
  Microbiology.  Vol. 34, 1977, p. 17 5^
                                 635

-------
fumigant DBCP and the egg-shell thinning found in various predatory
birds that accumulated certain organochlorine pesticides in their
tissues.

     Of the approximately 3 million children born in the United
States each year, about 200 thousand (almost 7 percent) have birth
defects.  More than 560 thousand (almost 19 percent) of all pregnan-
cies terminate in spontaneous abortions, stillbirths, or miscarriages
caused by maldevelopment.^^  At this time,  it is impossible to
determine the contributions of toxicants to these totals.  Neverthe-
less, the often-found high sensitivity of the reproductive system to
toxicants and the increasing list of compounds shown to be mutagenic
should cause concern about their possible contribution to these
figures.

     During pregnancy, maternal exposure to chemicals such as the
chlorinated dioxin TCDD may possibly result in fetal death, and
spontaneous abortion in humans, as has been shown in animal studies.
Toxicants may cause subtle or profound birth defects through toxic
action on developing organs and tissues.  Some observed effects are
reduced birth weight in offspring of smoking parents; massive dys-
functioning of the nervous system in children whose mothers were ex-
posed during pregnancy to methylmercury by eating contaminated fish;
and gross body deformation in the progeny of mothers who received
doses of the tranquilizer Thalidomide during pregnancy.  After birth,
the developing young can be highly susceptible to the toxic actions
of chemicals from exposure through the mother's milk.  This is the
reason for studies such as found in Table 11-8.

     Perhaps the greatest concern is the potential for certain chemi-
cals to alter the genetic makeup of progeny, and subsequent continua-
tion of these alterations through several generations.  A number of
chemicals have given positive results in mutagenic screening assays,
and perhaps many of these may be able to reach and mutate the germ
cells as well as the somatic cells. ->0  The cost of these chemically
caused mutagenic effects to future generations may be much more than
our current understanding can assess.  Human genetic defects are not
easy to attribute to a specific cause, and a considerable increase in
birth defects might occur without causal attribution.  Moreover, many
consequences of a general increase in gene mutations in the germ line
might be subtle, e.g., decreased intelligence.
        of Dimes National Foundation, Facts, National Foundation,
  New York, 1975.
      , B.N., "Identifying Environmental Chemicals Causing Muta-
  tions and Cancers," Science, Vol. 204, 1979, p. 587.
                                  636

-------
     The outlook in this area is the most difficult to characterize;
toxic effects on reproductive functions may be the most important at
species survival level.  A limited assessment can be made for chemi-
cals that are known to have, or are highly suspected of having, toxic
effects on reproductive systems.  For example, the possible cancel-
lation of most uses of the herbicide 2,4,5-T should result in less
exposure to the highly teratogenic chlorinated dioxin, 2,3,7,8-TCDD,
which is a contaminant of this herbicide.  The possible reduction in
TCDD exposures may, however, be negated by the projected increases in
production of the wood preservative pentachlorophenol.  Although evi-
dence does not exist for the presence of 2,3,7,8-TCDD in pentachloro-
phenol, other chlorinated dioxins do exist as contaminants and could
possess similar toxic characteristics.  In addition, phasing out lead
in gasoline may hold benefits in terms of impacts on developing
young.  However, pressures to increase gasoline availability may re-
verse this trend.  Increased coal burning in this country may result
in increased ambient levels of mercury, an element found in coal;
possible conversion of ambient mercury to methylmercury may even-
tually result in fetal exposures.

     These assessments are obviously limited both in scope and pre-
dictability.  A true environmental outlook in this area must await a
more complete understanding of the effects of chemicals on the repro-
ductive system and the adequate testing of thousands of chemicals for
their reproductive effects.

11.7.4  Carcinogenicity

     Mortality trends in the United States are shown in Figure 11-5,
with death rates corrected for shifts in age, race, and sex charac-
teristics of the population.  Deaths from infectious diseases such as
influenza and pneumonia have fallen from first to fourth place and
deaths due to heart disease are declining steeply.  On the other
hand, cancer mortality has shown a slow but constant growth; cancer
is now the second most likely cause of death in the United States.
Among various types of cancer, however, mortality rates are climbing
or declining at rates different from this aggregated rate for all
cancer mortalities (Figures 11-6 and 11-7).  Mortality rates from
cancer of the uterus, stomach, and rectum are declining—perhaps
reflecting improved diagostic procedures—whereas lung cancer mor-
tality has quadrupled between the years 1940 and 1970.  Incidence
rates of other cancers have been increasing slowly but steadily by
about 1 percent per year since 1940.
                                 637

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0
 1900
1976
                                   HEART
                                    CANCER
     ACCIDENTS
    INFLUENZA &
    PNEUMONIA
     HOMICIDES
                               1930
                              YEAR
Source:   Schneiderman, M.A., "The Links Between  Environment and Health,"
         in National Conference on the Environment and Health Care Costs,
         U.S.  Government Printing Office,  Washington, D.C., August 15,
         1978.

                            FIGURE 11-5
              MORTALITY RATES IN THE UNITED STATES
                    638

-------
       50
       40
     o
     2
       20
        10
        0
                  I
                                 I
                 1940
                                         I960     1970
                              1950
                                YEAR
Source:  Schneiderman, M.A.,  "The Links Between  Environment and Health,"
         in National Conference on  the Environment  and Health Care Costs,
         U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,  B.C., August 15,
         1978.
                          FIGURE 11-6
     MORTALITY RATES FROM CANCER IN THE UNITED STATES
        50
       40
     o
     I  30
       20
       10
        0
                                         BRE_AST __^x
                                        —     jz»

                                         ^t>"
                                        xx "INTESTINES
                              BJ
                          ~" "        T v\\pHOM A?
                         .ADDER    .---"-"
                  I
                1940
                              ___JL___J ,  „„!,.. .!_., ...L,.
                                1950     TyV      19/0
                                  Vf- \R
Source:  Schneidermann, M.A. ,  "The  Li^te  ft .wr-en tn'vit oTnnei't and Health,"
         National Conference  on  the  Eii'-'iiO'-im^rri - ..ri J-I^?1.th  Cai e Costs,
         U.S. Government Printing Oirice,  ws _,hii,:- !•-,• •,,  D (.' ,  /'u:::uot 15, 1978.
MORTALITY RATES FROM CANCER IN THb U'^H fc
                               639

-------
     Epidemiological studies of such incidence rates support the hy-
pothesis that environmental factors are a major cause of cancer.-^
For instance, the rate of cancer incidence has been shown to cor-
respond to population density, a factor termed urbanization, and
smoking.  Similarily, strong correlations have been shown between
industrial (especially chemical) activity of a geographical region
and cancer incidence, as evident in the 1975 NCI Cancer Atlas
Study.    Moreover, the occurrence of different incidence rates for
certain types of cancers in different parts of the world has, in par-
ticular, brought forth the importance of environmental factors.  For
example, very low rates of breast and colon cancers and a high rate
of stomach cancer occur in Japan, and in the United States the re-
verse is true.  However, when Japanese people immigrate to the United
States, within a generation or two they show the same characteristics
of high colon and breast cancer rates and low stomach cancer occur-
rence as other Americans.  Such findings support the hypothesis that
environmental factors are the major contributing source for cancer
occurrence.  Environmental constituents implicated in human cancers
include cigarette smoke tar, ultraviolet light, X-rays, asbestos, and
a list of chemical carcinogens that has steadily increased.

     Chemical carcinogens have been identified through examination of
their effects on workers in the occupational environment; many more
have been found through animal experimentation.  Of these carcino-
gens, many—such as benzene, a highly suspected human leukemogen;
ethylene dichloride, a mammalian carcinogen; and vinyl chloride, a
known human carcinogen—are known to be released into the environ-
ment, benzene in large quantities.-*4

     Although large amounts of chemical carcinogens are released,
their final environmental concentrations and the expected resulting
exposures experienced by the general population usually are low com-
pared to those found in occupational situations or used in animal
experimentation.  Whether or not the general population will suffer
-* Hiatt, H.H. , J.D. Watson, and J.A. Winsten, eds., Origins of
  Human Cancer, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, Cold Spring Harbor,
  New York, 1977.
52u.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, National Can-
  cer Institute, Atlas of Cancer Mortality for U.S. Counties: 1950-
  1969, DHEW Publication No. NIH 75-780, 1975.
^ Ames, B.N., "Identifying Environmental Chemicals Causing Muta-
  tions and Cancers," Science, Vol. 204, 1979, p. 587.
5^Stephenson, M.E., "An Approach to the Identification of Organic
  Compounds Hazardous to the Environment and Human Health," Ecotxxxi-
  cology and Environmental Safety, Vol. 1, 1977, pp. 39-48.


                                  640

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adverse effects from such low-level exposures is a question for
debate.  Chronic toxicity studies, in which a few hundred animals are
exposed to relevant, but very low doses of a chemical, may not yield
statistically significant information.  However, dose-response infor-
mation from humans on lung cancer incidence and smoking" and from
human exposures to radiation provides no support for the existence of
an exposure "threshold"—a point below which any lower dose does not
produce the adverse effect.  Several arguments suggest that thres-
holds, or completely safe exposure levels for the general popula-
tion, are not likely to be the case for carcinogens;^" and until
data prove otherwise, it is prudent to assume a linear proportional
increase in risk with an increase in exposure.

     Epidemiological studies of cancer incidence indicate existence
of a latent period between exposure to a carcinogen and the onset of
most types of human cancer.  Men started smoking cigarettes in large
numbers around 1900, but the resulting incidence of lung cancer did
not appear until 20 to 25 years later (Figure 11-8).  Women did not
start smoking in appreciable numbers until about the mid 1940s, and
the rapid climb of lung cancer incidence in women has been only re-
latively recent.  The latent period has also been seen with most
types of cancer caused by the atomic bomb and cancer in factory
workers exposed to certain chemicals.

     As a result of cancer onset latency, the latest available cancer
incidence rates reflect exposures that occurred soon after World War
II.  The dramatic increase in production and use of chemicals in the
United States since the 1950s means increased exposure as well.  But
any significant increases in human cancer from these sources may not
become obvious until the 1980s, owing to the 20- to 30-year lag.
Similarly, it may be decades before we observe any beneficial results
(in terms of decreased cancer incidence) from regulations recently
adopted for the control of carcinogen exposures.  According to David
Rail, Director of the National Institute of Environmental Health
Sciences,5'

     ...as the average latency period for most occupational cancers
     ranges from 15 to 35 or more years, it is obvious that the bulk
     of industry-associated cancers that will appear over the next
     one to two decades will result from initial exposures that
        R. , "An Epidemiological Perspective of the Biology of
  Cancer," Cancer Research, Vol. 38, 1978, p. 3573.
^ Ames, B.N., "Identifying Environmental Chemicals Causing Muta-
  tions and Cancers," Science, Vol. 204, 1979, p. 587.
57Rall, D., "Occupational Cancer Risk," Science, Vol. 203, 1979,
  p. 224.

                                 641

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     occurred typically before 1960....Thus,  recent reductions  in
     exposure levels—often brought about  by  federal regulation and
     intervention—are not likely to markedly alter the  incidence of
     tumors in these cohorts in the next one  or  two decades.

Moreover, the projected trends, as described  in  the preceding sec-
tion, of rapidly increasing chemical production  in general  and  of
specific chemicals known to be carcinogenic  (benzene,  vinyl chloride,
etc.) may reduce or completely negate any  future benefits from  regu-
lation, in terms of cancer incidence over  the long run.

     In conclusion, the near-term environmental  outlook  holds a
likely continuation of increasing cancer incidence, perhaps even a
sudden jump in cancer occurrence, as a  result of the highly increased
chemical production activity that occurred in the years  following
World War II and the reduction in other life-threatening diseases.
The long-term environmental outlook remains less clear;  increased
regulation and control of exposures to  carcinogens may eventually
have beneficial impacts on cancer incidence rates.  However, such
benefits may be overridden by the projected rapid increase  in chem-
ical production from now until at least the year 2000.
         5000
                                                 -  150
                                                 — 100
                               200 g
                                                       ZH
                                                       Z
            1900
1920
 1940
YEAR
1960
    Source:   Ames,  B.N.,  "Identifying Environmental  Chemicals  Causing
             Mutations and Cancers," Science,  Vol. 204,  1979,  p.  587.
             Used with permission.
                             FIGURE 11-8
            CIGARETTE CONSUMPTION AND LUNG CANCER
                  MORTALITY IN THE UNITED STATES
                                 642

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                           CHAPTER 12
                            RADIATION
                       HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 12

Ionizing Radiation

o  Ionizing radiation is known to cause cancer at high dose levels,
   but the potential health effects of low doses  are  the  subject  of
   scientific controversy.  Extrapolations from high  dose information
   have been used to infer that perhaps 3,500 cancer  deaths per year
   (1 percent of U.S. cancer deaths) are attributable to  background
   radiation.

o  Medical diagnostic procedures are the largest  artificial source of
   exposure to ionizing radiation for the general public.  The annual
   per capita average dose is comparable to natural background.   The
   outlook is for increased medical use of radiation  procedures.   It
   is not clear whether the trend toward elimination  of unnecessary
   examinations and reduction in dose per examination will be  suffi-
   cient to avoid an increase in the population dose.  However, EPA
   and HEW have issued Federal guidance, which should help.

o  Nuclear energy activities provide a very small part of the  radia-
   tion exposure of the general population, in normal operations.  Two
   problems of particular environmental concern are radioactive waste
   disposal and radon, and radon daughter emissions from  waste tail-
   ings.  There are about 70 nuclear power plants operating in the
   United States and 90 under construction.  Beyond that, future
   trends are in doubt partly because of the safety questions  raised
   by the accident at the Three Mile Island plant in  1979.

Nonionizing Radiation

o  The recent proliferation of communications, broadcasting, radar,
   and other electronic devices has fostered concern  for  public and
   occupational exposure to nonionizing radiation.

o  Radio waves and microwaves of frequencies between  30 MHz and 3 GHz
   are the major concerns.

o  In the United States, less than 1 percent of the population is
   exposed to levels above 0.001 mW/cm2.  (The U.S. OSHA  standard is
   10 mW/cm^; the standard for public exposure in the U.S.S.R. is
   0.001 mW/cm2.)
                                 643

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o  The primary effects on the human body are heat-induced at high
   exposure levels (well above the OSHA standard).  These include heat
   stress, burns, and eye cataracts.

o  At very low exposure levels, there is some evidence for behavioral
   effects.  However, existing data are insufficient to resolve the
   controversy over this point.

12.1  INTRODUCTION

12.1.1  Problem Definition

     Growing concern by both the general public and the scientific
community about ionizing and nonionizing radiation focuses on the
potential for adverse effects on human health and the environment.

     At present, the use of ionizing radiation in the healing arts is
recognized as the largest artificial component of radiation dose to
the U.S. population.  In addition, other environmental sources such as
the products and byproducts of the phosphate and coal industries may
present significant sources of exposure in certain parts of the coun-
try.

     The nuclear power debate, in addition to raising questions of
weapons proliferation, has called public attention to two main ioniz-
ing radiation issues:  reactor safety and the disposal of radioactive
wastes.

     Sources of ionizing radiation are present in the natural environ-
ment, the workplace, and the home.  Exposures vary, depending on the
source and type of radiation, but on the average, the larger doses are
associated with natural background and medical exposures. Although
other somatic and genetic effects can result from ionizing radiation,
the primary concern is cancer.

     Nonionizing radiation is an environmental problem that was
largely ignored by the general public until the mid 1970s when it was
announced that the U.S. Embassy in Moscow was being irradiated by
microwaves.  Around the same time, it was feared that SSTs might
deplete the atmospheric ozone, thus exposing people to more solar
ultraviolet radiation.  Since then, nonionizing radiation has been
increasingly studied, although not with the same urgency as that
attached to nuclear questions.

     Nonionizing radiation comes from diverse sources, such as com-
munications equipment and microwave ovens.   Based on results from
animal studies, the principal effects of radiofrequency and microwave
radiation are heat stress, burns, and cataracts of the eye.  These are
heat-induced at power levels higher than usually encountered in the

                                  644

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general environment, but which could be encountered accidentally in
occupational settings.  Some scientists have reported behavioral
effects at low levels of irradiation; however, others consider these
findings questionable.  Solar ultraviolet radiation, in contrast, is
clearly associated with human skin cancer.

12.1.2  Organization of Chapter

     Following this introductory section, ionizing and nonionizing
radiation are discussed in separate sections, each of which includes a
discussion of regulations, data, radiation sources, trends, and
implications.

     The various radiation sources are illustrated in Figure 12-1.
The distinction between ionizing and nonionizing electromagnetic
radiation is that at frequencies below that of ultraviolet light, the
photons (units of electromagnetic radiation) have insufficient energy
to remove an electron from an atom with which they may interact.
Therefore, radiation at frequencies below about ICr" Hertz (Hz)*
is nonionizing radiation.  Radiation of higher frequency is ionizing
radiation because it can remove an electron from and thus ionize the
target atom.

     Alpha and beta^ radiation is composed of high-energy particles,
which are actually helium nuclei and electrons, respectively, rather
than photons of electromagnetic radiation.  Since these particles can
ionize an atom or molecule with which they interact, they are included
as kinds of ionizing radiation.

12.2  IONIZING RADIATION

12.2.1  Introduction

     Radioactive materials and X-ray machines produce energetic radia-
tion.  When absorbed by tissue, this radiation can produce damage by
ionization.

     In modern society, people are exposed to artificial sources of
ionizing radiation at levels nearly equal to natural background, pre-
dominantly as a result of medical diagnostic activities.  Industrial
activities, including nuclear power, also contribute to this increased
exposure.  Certain workers, patients, and others receive exposures
     Hertz (Hz) is a unit of frequency equal to one cycle per
 second.  One kiloHertz (KHz) equals 1,000 Hertz; 1 megaHertz (MHz)
 equals 1,000,000 Hertz; 1 gigaHertz (GHz) equals 1,000,000,000
 Hertz.
^Beta particles may be either positively or negatively charged.

                                 645

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    FREQUENCY
      (HERTZ)
    IHz
   1KHz
   1MHz
  IGHz
 1012 Hz!
  1015Hz|
  1018Hz|
 1021 Hzl
 1024 Hzl
 1027 Hzl
                           ELECTRIC POWER
                   RADIO WAVES
                                MICROWAVES
                                    I
                     INFRARED
  TERRESTRIAL
SOLAR SPECTRUM
                                  I     T
                             ULTRAVIOLET
                                                   I VISIBLE
                                 XRAYS
                          GAMMA RAYS, ALPHA3ETA
                             o
                             S3
                             Z
                             O
                             z
                             o
                             z
                              o
                              z
                              O
                               COSMIC RAYS
Note: Alpha and Beta radiation have energy comparable to gamma rays, but are particles not electromagnetic radiation.

Source:  U.S.  Department of Health, Education  and Welfare, Human
         Health and  the Environment:   Some  Research Needs, Report
         of  the Second Task Force  for  Research Planning in Environ-
         mental Health Sciences, Washington, B.C., DHEW Pub. No.
         NIH 77-1277, 1977.
                             FIGURE 12-1
                      THE RADIATION SPECTRUM
                                   646

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considerably above the average, and this has become a source of public
concern.  Just how does the trend toward increasing use of radiation
affect public health?  Definitive answers are not yet available; the
scientific issues are still under debate.

     Alpha particles, beta particles, neutrons, gamma rays, and X-rays
are the five kinds of radiation discussed here which can initiate the
ionization process.  Ultraviolet light, which in some cases has just
enough energy to cause ionization, is discussed in Chapter 5 in con-
nection with stratospheric ozone.

     Ionizing radiation, whether produced naturally or artificially,
has biological effects caused by ionization of molecules of living
tissue.  The primary concern is that incompletely or incorrectly re-
paired cell damage can produce delayed health effects, such as cancer,
developmental abnormalities, or genetic damage.

     The unit of ionizing radiation dose is the rem, a measure of the
biological damage per unit mass caused by a given radiation dose.J
The millirem (mrem), equal to 1/1,000 rem, also is frequently used.
The radiation dose depends on the intensity of the radiation, and the
length of exposure (see Table 12-1).

     The effect of radiation depends on which organs or tissues are
irradiated, as well as upon the dose.  Dose rate and the type of
radiation are also important.  Whole-body radiation involves exposure
of all organs, as is typical of external natural background radiation.
However, radiation can be, and often is, limited to a part of the
body, as in diagnostic and therapeutic X-rays.

12.2.2  Regulatory Background

     Statutory authority for regulation of radiation comes from such
diverse sources as the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 (PL 83-703); the
 Strictly speaking, dose itself is measured in rads, where 1 rad of
 radiation deposits 100 ergs of energy per gram of tissue.  The rem
 is a measure of biological effect, a dose equivalent obtained by
 multiplying the dose in rads by a quality factor which is dependent
 upon the kind of radiation and other factors.  In qualitative terms,
 1 rem (1,000 millirem) is roughly equal to the whole body exposure
 received by a person 1 meter away from a gamma ray source of 1 curie
 strength (such as 1 gram of radium 226) for 1 hour.  A typical chest
 X-ray dose is 44 millirem.  An acute fatal dose is about 600,000 mil-
 lirem.  The radiation exposure of a group of people is expressed in
 person-rem.  This collective population dose is calculated by multi-
 plying the number of people exposed times the average individual dose
 in rems.

                                  647

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                             TABLE 12-1
              ANNUAL INDIVIDUAL IONIZING RADIATION DOSE
                      (U.S. POPULATION AVERAGE)
                                              Annual Exposure
         	Source	                  (mrem)	

         Natural Background3

         Cosmic radiation                        28 (26-50)
         Terrestrial radiation                   52 (41-83)
           (External = 26 mrem)
           (Internal = 26 mrem)                 	
                Subtotal                         80+ mrem/yr

         Artificial Background^

         Medical diagnostic0                     72
         Radiopharmaceuticals                     1
         Occupational                             0.8
         Global fallout                           4
         Nuclear fuel cycle^                      0.02
         Miscellaneous                            2
                Subtotal                         80 mrem/yr
                Total                           160 mrem/yr
aNational Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements, Natural
 Background Radiation in the United States, NCRP Report No. 45,
 Bethesda, Maryland, 1975.  Internal is a computed average including
 cosmogenic and inhaled radionuclides.
"National Academy of Sciences, Advisory Committee on the
 Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR), The Effects on
 Populations of Exposure to Low Levels  of Ionizing Radiation, 1972,
 p. 12.
cAverage abdominal dose to the whole population.  A similar value
 has been obtained by William H. Ellett, Chief,  Bioeffects Branch,
 Office of Radiation Programs, EPA who  obtained  an estimate of 70
 mrem per year, using an age-weighted value based on Bureau of
 Radiological Health estimates of the dose to bone marrow and age at
 exposure.
dKeeny, S.M. et al., Nuclear Power Issues and Choices, Ballinger
 Publishing Co., Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1977, p. 163.
                                  648

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Energy Reorganization Act of 1974 (PL 93-438), which covers regulation
of nuclear power and certain nuclear materials; and the Radiation
Control for Health and Safety Act of 1968 (PL 90-602), which author-
izes HEW to regulate radiation-emitting electronic products, including
medical and dental equipment.

     Table 12-2 lists the major responsibilities of various Federal
agencies concerning radiation.  Other nongovernmental advisory bodies,
such as the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements
and the International Commission on Radiation Protection, issue tech-
nical guidelines.  Three particularly important agencies that help
regulate radiation are EPA, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the
Bureau of Radiological Health of the Food and Drug Administration.

     Under Executive Reorganization Plan No. 3 of 1970, several
Federal radiation responsibilities were transferred to EPA.  These
included the former functions of the Federal Radiation Council (FRC),
namely, advising the President on radiation matters and issuing radia-
tion protection guidance to all Federal agencies; establishing gener-
ally applicable environmental radiation protection standards; and mon-
itoring radiation levels in the environment.^  EPA is also required
to issue regulations to control the ocean disposal of radioactive
wastes (see Chapter 9);^ to establish standards for radioactive air
pollutants;  and to set general environmental  standards for dispo-
sal of uranium milling tailings.'  Except under the Clean Air Act,
EPA's jurisdiction is limited to areas outside the boundaries of
facilities under the regulatory control of the Nuclear Regulatory
Commission (NRC).

     The Nuclear Regulatory Commission implements radiation protection
standards by licensing construction and operation of nuclear power
plants and fuel cycle facilities.  NRC also regulates non-Federal use
of source materials (uranium or thorium), byproduct materials (reac-
tor-produced radioactive isotopes), and special nuclear material
(plutonium and enriched uranium).

     The Bureau of Radiological Health in the Food and Drug Adminis-
tration is the lead agency for regulation of the manufacture and
distribution of medical devices containing radioactive materials; they
also set performance standards for X-ray machines and other electronic
products that emit radiation.  No Federal authority exists to regulate
442 USC 2011.
5Marine Protection Research and Sanctuaries Act of 1972 (PL 92-532),
6Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 (PL 95-95).
7Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act of 1978 (PL 95-604).


                                 649

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                             TABLE 12-2
              FEDERAL AGENCIES WITH PRIMARY REGULATORY
           RESPONSIBILITY FOR RADIATION HEALTH AND SAFETY
                                             Agency3
           Area of                         HEW
	Responsibility	    EPA      (FDA)      NRG      Other

General Environmental             X

Nuclear Energy Industry           X                   X

Other Industries                  X

Federal Facilities & Workers        (operating agency, such as DOE)

Workers (Private)                                     X      DOL
                                                             (MSHA &
                                                             OSHA)

Electronic Products and Medical
  Devices & Productsb                       X         X

Consumer Products                           X         X      CPSC

Food                                        X

Transportation                                        X      DOT,
                                                             USPS
aFull agency names:  EPA, Environmental Protection Agency; HEW,
 Department of Health, Education & Welfare; FDA, Food & Drug Admin-
 istration; NRC, Nuclear Regulatory Commission; DOE, Department of
 Energy; DOL, Department of Labor; MSHA, Mine Safety & Health Admin-
 istration; OSHA, Occupational Safety & Health Administration; CPSC,
 Consumer Product Safety Commission; DOT, Department of Transporta-
 tion; and USPS, United States Postal Service.
"No Federal authority exists to regulate medical use of radiation,
 and only the devices and products are regulated.
                                650

-------
medical use of radiation by physicians, dentists, and x-ray techni-
cians.  EPA may issue recommendations for proper use and these
recommendations are coordinated with HEW.  An example of this is the
1978 report "Radiation Protection Guidance to Federal Agencies for
Diagnostic X-rays."  Once adopted by the President, these guidelines
are enforceable in the Federal establishment.

12.2.3  Data Sources and Quality

     The data used in projecting ionizing radiation trends have been
gathered from most of the agencies mentioned above.  In addition, the
basic source for radiation effects information is the National Academy
of Sciences Advisory Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing
Radiation (BEIR).  A useful summary has been prepared by the
Interagency Task Force on the Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation,"
chaired by HEW.  EPA reports, such as Radiological Quality of the
Environment,9 have provided useful information on present and future
radiation levels.  The Department of Energy chaired .an Interagency
Review Group on Nuclear Waste Management which was the source of much
of the information on nuclear power.  The SEAS computer model used
elsewhere in this report has limited capabilities in the radiation
area, and was used in this chapter only as a source of population
projections.

     In general, information on future trends in medical uses of
radiation is scarce.  Projections are available for nuclear power, but
their validity is questionable, since they were made before the acci-
dent at Three Mile Island.  Other exposure pathways were not covered
in any detail in this year's report, partly due to limitations of time
and data.

12.2.4  Sources of Ionizing Radiation

     Natural background (both cosmic and terrestrial) and medical and
dental radiation are two major categories of sources of ionizing radi-
ation.  Two other categories of special interest are technologically
enhanced natural radiation and the nuclear fuel cycle.  Other sources
are occupational activities, fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons
testing, radiopharmaceutical production and disposal, and consumer
products.
8u.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare,  Report of the
 Interagency Task Force on the Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation,
 Washington, D.C., June 1979.
9u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Radiation Programs,
 Radiological Quality of the Environment,  EPA 520/1-77-099,
 September, 1977.
                                 651

-------
     Everyone is exposed to natural background levels of roughly 80
millirem per year (mrem/yr) of radiation due to cosmic rays, radio-
active minerals, and internal radioisotopes.  In addition, another 80
mrem is attributable to human activity, primarily medical uses of
radiation.  At present, the contribution from nuclear power genera-
tion is negligible:   0.023 mrem in 1975 (see Table 12-1).

     Natural Background

     Natural background is divided into cosmic radiation and terres-
trial radiation.  An average 18 percent of all exposure to radiation
in the United States comes from cosmic rays emitted by sources in our
galaxy, including the sun.  Another 35 percent comes from terrestrial
sources, both external and internal to the body.  The most significant
terrestrial radionuclides—potassium-40, uranium, thorium, and their
daughters (especially radium and radon)—are naturally present in the
soil and can act as external sources.  These radionuclides can also
enter the body through the consumption of food and water and through
inhalation.

     Medical and dental radiation treatments and techniques are the
source of 45 percent of U.S. exposure.  These include diagnostic
radiology, especially radiographic procedures, clinical nuclear medi-
cine, radiation therapy, dental X-rays, and radiopharmaceuticals.

     In contrast to most radiation sources, medical procedures provide
the exposed individual with specific benefits that need to be balanced
against the risks of radiation exposure.  These medical activities are
the major artificial source of public exposure to radiation, and they
are not always benign.

     Technologically Enhanced Natural Radiation

     Technologically enhanced natural radiation comes from natural
radionuclides that have been redistributed by human activity, such as
mining, excavation,  well-drilling, and fertilizer production.  It
provides less than 1 percent of average U.S. exposure, but it can be
important locally.  One of the most important sources is uranium mill
tailings piles, which contain radioactive nuclldes such as radon,
radium, and thorium.  When these substances enter the water and air,
they become sources of radiation exposure to miners and the local
population.  Before the problem was really understood, and before
regulatory controls were established, mill tailings containing sub-
stantial radioactive concentrations were even used in Utah and
Colorado as fill material on construction sites for homes and schools.
                                 652

-------
Abandoned radium processing sites in at least nine states have also
been recently identified.  This problem will require a large-scale
clean-up effort for which Federal matching funds have been authorized
by Congress.

     Another example of this type of source is tailings from the
mining of phosphate rock in Florida.  EPA recently has directed
attention to this problem.  The production of elemental phosphorus and
air emissions from coal-fired power plants can also be significant
sources of radiation.

     The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

     The nuclear fuel cycle begins with mining and milling, progresses
to conversion and enrichment of the uranium and fabrication of reactor
fuel, and is expected to end with disposal of spent fuel or high level
waste (see Figure 12-2).  Nuclear fuel rods are used to generate power
in nuclear power stations and research reactors.

     Disposal of radioactive waste is a problem of great public con-
cern today.  Plans call for spent fuel from these reactors to be
placed in geological storage, but such facilities are not yet avail-
able.  Spent fuel rods are presently stored temporarily under water.
Most of these are in containers at the reactor sites.  There are
similar plans for geological storage of high-level defense wastes.

     The entire nuclear fuel cycle also generates large quantities of
low-level radioactive waste,   such as transport containers, tools,
gloves, and materials which are usually disposed of by shallow land
burial or, occasionally, disposal at sea.    Potential exposure
pathways to such wastes include contact with contaminated water or
ground surface,  inhalation, and ingestion.

     Other Sources
     Occupational radiation exposure contributes about 1/2 of 1 per-
cent of U.S. population exposure.  However, it may contribute a more
significant fraction of exposure of individual workers in occupational
  Low level waste contains quantities of material so low in radio-
  activity that they require little shielding,  as contrasted with high
  level wastes, including spent fuels,  which are highly radioactive.
      United States prohibits the disposal of "other than low level"
  radioactive wastes at sea.  However,  some other countries dump
  low-level radioactive wastes in the oceans.  Refer to 10 CFR 20.302
  and 36 FR 23138.
                                 653

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FRONT END r-J^FOLg)^ BACKEND
1
Fr^
FUEL
~^^=
/
*C
/REACTOR x" '
X.


INTERIM STORAGE
\
ML,
FABRICATION ^
3T~Wi , __ __ 1
ENRICHMENT 1
4 HIGH-LEVEL WASTE /
OR SPENT FUEL /
UF6
CON
i
^
VERSION '
/
/
t
5=i GEOLOGIC DEPOSITION
MILLING p^
1
il\ 	 " IHl
II tn
EXPLORATION MINING s^Zf^£=£^wss/Ssfjxif
	 ^
__rtr-,|l IL^^_M
FUEL CYCLE TODAY
LONG TERM MANAGEMENT & DISPOSAL OPTION
GEOLOGIC DEPOSITION, AN EXAMPLE OF A MINED
REPOSITORY, HAS BEEN EXAMINED AND CONSIDERED
AS ONE OF THE ALTERNATIVES IN THE ULTIMATE
DISPOSAL OF NUCLEAR WASTE.
Source:   U.S. Department of Energy,
         Annual Report to Congress,
Energy Information Administration,
Vol.  II:   Projections of Energy
         Supply and Demand and Their Impacts, DOE EIA-0036/2, Washington,
         D.C.,  1977, p. 192.
                             FIGURE 12-2
                      THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE
                                 654

-------
and industrial settings that involve radiography or use of radionu-
clides.  The possibility of carcinogenesis due to exposure to low-
level radiation has attracted much attention lately and is discussed
below.

     Fallout from nuclear weapons tests contributes about 2 or 3 per-
cent of U.S. exposure.  The radioactive strontium and cesium in this
fallout are deposited worldwide.    Fallout radiation has declined
since the cessation of most atmospheric nuclear testing in the mid
1960s, but fallout from past tests still contributes to internal and
external population doses.^

     Radiopharmaceutical production, use, and disposal contribute
about 1/2 of 1 percent of U.S. population exposures.  Radiopharma-
ceuticals, used in diagnosis and treatment of many diseases, expose
patients and those that come in contact with them to both internal and
external radiation.  Both manufacturers of radiopharmaceuticals and
users, including medical facilities, discharge small quantities of
these materials to the environment.

     Numerous consumer products contain or produce radiation, but at
exceedingly low levels.  A few examples are digital watches, glazes
and glass, uranium as a color agent, ionization chamber smoke detec-
tors, artificial teeth,^ color TV, fertilizer, plasterboard, and
cinder blocks.

     Nuclear Accidents

     Most environmental concerns discussed in this report are related
to continuing releases and exposure to pollutants under normal condi-
tions.  However, nuclear energy facilities present another concern,
that of a very large release in a single major accident.  This leads
to the question of nuclear reactor safety.  It is still true, as the
Ford-MITRE Study*-* concluded in 1977, that "...there have been no
demonstrable adverse effects to public health" in 200 reactor years
I e\
1  Klement, A.W. Jr. et al.,  Estimates of Ionizing Radiation Doses in
  the United States, 1960-2000, ORP/CSD 72-1, August 1972, p. 14.
 •%.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Radiological Quality of the
  Environment, EPA 520/1-77-099, September 1977, p. 114.
  Moghissi, A.A., Radioactivity in Consumer Products,  U.S. Nuclear
  Regulatory Commission, NUREG/CP-0001, 1978, pp. 475-478.  Uranium
  oxide is added to get the  proper fluorescence.  It causes a local
  dose to the mouth of the user of about 700 mrem per year.
l-'Keeny, S.M. et al. , Nuclear Power Issues and Choices, Ballinger
  Publishing Co., Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1977, p. 163.
                                 655

-------
(now more than 470 reactor years).  That record is excellent but
still of limited value in assessing the likelihood of a low
probability accident in the future.

     Several events in 1979 have raised questions about reactor
safety.  In the Reactor Safety Study report, done in 1977 for the
Nuclear Regulatory Commission by a group headed by M.I.T. professor
Norman Rasmussen, it was concluded that the risk of death to any
person from a reactor accident was comparable to the risk of being
hit by a meteorite.    However, in January of 1979, after a careful
external review, the NRC withdrew its endorsement of the Rasmussen
report as an instrument for quantitative risk estimates.

     In March 1979, serious core damage occurred at the Three Mile
Island reactor in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.  Fortunately, the core
was contained within the reactor vessel, and there was no major
radiation release.  Nuclear opponents describe this as a close call
and say that we should stop nuclear power—we might not be so lucky
next time.  Nuclear supporters point out that, despite many flaws,
both human and technical, the backup safety systems were adequate to
prevent anyone from getting hurt.

     The anticipated future health effects of radiation from that
accident are minimal so far, although a full assessment must await
completion of the cleanup.  An interagency team from NRC, HEW, and
EPA gathered data on the collective radiation doses received by the 2
million people residing within 50 miles of the reactor, and projected
only one additional cancer death during the lifetime of the popula-
tion, compared to 325,000,deaths during the expected lifetime of that
population due to cancer from other causes.    However, the cleanup
process is still going on, and that could lead to additional radia-
tion exposure.
  Rasmussen, N.C., The Reactor Safety Study Report; An Assessment
  of Accident Risks in the U.S. Commercial Power Plants,
  WASH-1400-NUREG 75/014, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission,
  October 1975.
1 Nuclear Regulatory Commission, U.S. Environmental Protection
  Agency, and U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Ad
  Hoc Population Dose Assessment Group, Population Dose and Health
  Impacts of the Accident at the Three-Mile Island Nuclear Station;
  A Preliminary Assessment for the Period March 28 through April 7,
  1979. May 10, 1979, p. 2.
                                 656

-------
     These events are a reminder that, in projecting the environmen-
tal outlook, the possibility of a catastrophic accident with signifi-
cant environmental consequences must be considered.  In that context,
an adequate analysis would have to consider natural disasters such as
earthquakes and floods, as well as transportation accidents with
hazardous chemicals.

12.2.5  Trends

     The two artificial sources of ionizing radiation exposure that
seem to be receiving the greatest attention are medical exposure and
the nuclear fuel cycle.  Technologically enhanced natural radiation
from mining, construction, and increased coal combustion may produce
greater population exposures than the nuclear fuel cycle, but trends
information was not available for inclusion in this report.

     Medical Exposure

     Medical exposure to radiation differs from exposure to most pol-
lutants and from exposure to radiation via other pathways in that the
exposure itself is intended to serve a beneficial purpose.  It is not
just an unwanted side effect of another activity.  However, the ques-
tion remains whether the medical purpose in any given instance can be
served with lower radiation exposure, or even without the use of radi-
ation.  Some reports suggest the over 50 percent of medical radiolog-
ical procedures involving genetically significant doses may be unne-
cessary. 18

     Data in Table 12-3 show a projected increase of 23 percent in
population dose from diagnostic radiology between 1975 and 2000.
This projection is based on population projections from the SEAS High
Growth Scenario and the 1970 estimated mean gonad dose rate of 72
mrem/person.19

     The scenario assumes no change in medical practice.  More accu-
rate figures would take into account the efforts by the medical com-
munity to reduce exposure from any given procedure and to eliminate
unnecessary procedures.  In addition, the figures would also consider
the opposing tendency toward increased exposures, as radiological
1 8
•"•National Academy of Sciences, Advisory Committee on the Biologi-
  cal Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR), The Effects on Population
  of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation, 1972, p. 13.
l^Klement, A.W. Jr. et al., Estimates of Ionizing Radiation Doses
  in the United States, 1960-2000, U.S. Environmental Protection
  Agency, ORP.CSD 72-1, Montgomery, Alabama, 1972, p.88.

                                 657

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diagnostic procedures are chosen more often and as some new proce-
dures require increased exposures.  These factors are discussed
briefly below.

                              TABLE 12-3
             TRENDS IN RADIATION DOSE TO U.S.  POPULATION
                      FROM DIAGNOSTIC RADIOLOGY
Year
1960
1964
1970
1975
1985
2000
Population
(millions)
183
192
205
213
234
262
Genetically Significant
Dose (million person-rem)
11.1
11.7
14.7
15.3
16.8
18.8
         SOURCE:  Calculated from SEAS High Growth Scenario
                  population projections with dose rates taken from
                  Klement, A.W. Jr. et al., Estimates of Ionizing
                  Radiation Doses In the United States, 1960-2000,
                  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, ORP.CSD 72-1,
                  Montgomery, Alabama, 1972, p. 88.

     An increasing trend in the annual per capita dose for the U.S.
population between 1964 and 1970 is shown in Table 12-4.  The major
cause for the rise is attributable to the female population, although
the reason for this sex difference was not identified.  Between 1964
and 1970, the per capita dose to women from radiography increased by
24 percent and that from fluoroscopy increased by 11 percent, while
for men the per capita dos.e from radiography hardly changed and that
from fluoroscopy declined by 12 percent.

     There has been a marked increase in the number of diagnostic
X-ray examinations performed in the United States in the period
1966-1976; an increase estimated to be 1 to 4 percent annually.  In
the period from 1964-1970, there was a 20 percent increase in the
number of people receiving X-ray procedures, while the population
only increased by 7 percent.  There was also a 22 percent increase in
the number of X-ray examinations per person, and a 10 percent
increase in the average number of films per examination.  An EPA
review in 1976 concluded that these trends have probably continued
since 1970, especially insofar as increased film usage is con-
cerned. 20
20Radiation Protection Guidance for Diagnostic X-Ray, Federal Guid-
  ance Report No. 9, EPA 520/4-76-99, October 1976, pp. 3-4.
                                  658

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                                   TABLE 12-4
             TRENDS IN DOSE FROM DIAGNOSTIC RADIOLOGY 1964 and 1970
               (SIMULATED OVARIAN DOSE - MALE;  OVARIAN - FEMALE)
Annual per Capita
  Dose for the
Exposed Population
      (mrem) _
 Size of
 Exposed     Fraction of
Population   Whole U.S.
                                                              Annual per Capita
                                                              Dose for the Whole
                                                               U.S.  Population
Year Male Female Both (thousands) Population
1964
Radiography 150 126 138 66,086 0.354
Fluoroscopy 273 318 296 7,779 0.042
1970
Radiography 148 156 153 75,400 0.377
Fluoroscopy 239 394 328 8,600 0.043
(mrem)

49
a

58
a
aAnnual per capita dose as a result of fluoroscopy was not calculated because
 of the small size of the population exposed.

Source:  Klement, A.W.  Jr. et al.,  Estimates of Ionizing Radiation Doses in the
         United States, 1960-2000,  U.S Environmental Protection Agency,  ORP.CSD
         72-1,  Montgomery, Alabama, 1972,  p. 88.
                                       659

-------
     The trend in radiation exposure per examination is mixed, as
shown in Table 12-5.  The radiation dose from an average dental X-ray
examination has declined by about 30 percent, as has that from
fluoroscopic chest examination.  However, the average dose for a
radiographic chest examination has remained constant, and that for an
abdominal examination has actually increased by over 25 percent.
Since abdominal examinations contributed 77 percent of the total
active mean bone marrow dose to adults from diagnostic radiology,
while fluoroscopic examinations and dental examinations contributed
only 20 and 3 percent respectively, the increases outweigh the
decreases so far as total population exposure is concerned.21 How-
ever, for those many individuals who do not have extensive abdominal
examinations involving X-rays, the average dose has declined.

                              TABLE 12-5
                   TRENDS IN DOSE PER EXAMINATION
             (MILLIRADS MEAN ACTIVE BONE MARROW DOSE)3
Examination
Ches t-Photof luor o-
scopic
Chest-Radiographic
Upper Abdomen
Lower Abdomen
Dental
1964
65

10
408
624
13.2
1970
44

10
535
875
9.4
          aMillirads are approximately equal to millirems.

          SOURCE:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Radiological
                   Quality of the Environment, U.S. Government
                   Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1977, pp.
                   213-214.

     In at least two well-known instances, the use of radiological
diagnostic procedures has been greatly reduced.  General X-ray
screening for tuberculosis has been replaced by a skin test, with
X-ray screening used only when the skin test is positive.  Similarly,
as mentioned above, use of X-ray mammographic screening for breast
cancer has been restricted to high-risk groups such as older women
and those with a family history of breast cancer.
 ^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Radiological Quality of the
  Environment, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. ,
  1977, p. 210.
                                 660

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     The trend in medical radiological exposures is mixed.   One
hopeful sign is the recent guidelines for cancer-related health
checkups issued by the American Cancer Society.22  For example, the
Society has recommended eliminating chest X-rays for the detection of
lung cancer and, except for high risk groups,  has revised the
schedule for mammograms.

     The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

     There are about 70 nuclear power plants licensed for operation,  •
representing 50 gigawatts23 of electric generating capacity (GWe)
in the United States.  Another 90 or so additional plants,  represent-
ing about 100 GWe, have construction permits and are in various
stages of construction.24  Because of the time needed for planning
and construction, it is unlikely that this number could be  substan-
tially increased over the next decade.  Thus,  unless there  is a com-
plete moratorium (even on plants already started), the United States
expects to have about 150 GWe of nuclear power by the late  1980s.

     Projections of nuclear capacity to 2000,  however, are  very
uncertain.  Changing conditions have required  dramatic changes in
these projections.  In Figure 12-3, nuclear power growth estimates
made in the past few years are compared.  In 1972, the Atomic Energy
Commission forecast 1,200 GWe of nuclear power by the end of this
century.  More recent forecasts have been successively lower.  For
example, a 1977 Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA)
forecast was 380 GWe.  The most recent (1979)  DOE forecasts are about
260 GWe,25 but they must be considered uncertain because of the
possible effects of the Three Mile Island incident in delaying fur-
ther nuclear construct ion.26

     Radioactive Waste

     A major environmental concern in nuclear  energy use is radioac,-
tive waste disposal.  Radioactive waste is hazardous and may be very
22American Cancer Society, Memorandum LE-40, New York City, March
  14, 1980.
23one gigawatt (GWe) = 1 thousand megawatts or 1 million kilowatts
  of electric generating capacity.  One gigawatt also corresponds
  roughly to the capacity of one modern nuclear power plant.
24u.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,
  Monthly Energy Review, March 1980 p. 69.
25u.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,
  Annual Report to the Congress, Vol. 3, DOE/EIA-0173/3,  1978, p.
  222.
26u.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Plan II, May 1979,  p.
  39, forecasts 15.2 to 16.5 quads, depending on oil prices.  This
  translates to 243-264 GWe.
                                  661

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          1100
                                                     AEG-1972
                                                     AEC-1974
                                                     AEC-ERDA-1975
                                                     ERDA-1976
                                                     ERDA-1977
                                                     DOE-1979
            0
            1975   1980    1985     1990     1995   2000
                               YEAR
*Number of plants  operating and under construction as of July, 1979.
Note:  It requires about one quad of thermal energy to generate 16
       GWE of  electrical power for a year, in a nuclear plant, assuming
       60 percent  capacity.  U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy
       Plan II,  May 1979, p. 40.

Source:  Adapted from Testimony of James R. Schlesinger, Assistant to
         the President, before the Subcommittee on Fossil and Nuclear
         Energy  Research, Development and Demonstration of the Committee
         on Science and Technology, United States House of Representatives,
         June  7, 1977,  Table 1.

                               FIGURE 12-3
                  NUCLEAR POWER GROWTH ESTIMATES
                                    662

-------
long-lived.  It must be carefully isolated from the biosphere for
long periods of time—some wastes for thousands of years.  In this
respect it is similar to persistent toxic substances discussed in
Chapter 11.  If it were to leach into the ground water or be
dispersed in the air, the general public could be exposed to large
amounts of radiation with corresponding adverse health effects.  But
it is difficult to assess either the likelihood or the probable
impact of such events.  Trends in radioactive waste disposal will be
governed by trends in nuclear power production and by future choices
of waste disposal practices.

     The major classes of nuclear wastes are as follows.

     o  High-level wastes (HLW) are either spent fuel (intact reactor
        fuel assemblies that are discarded after having served their
        useful life) or the wastes generated if spent fuel were re-
        processed.  Disposal of these wastes in geologic repositories
        is being considered.  However, the scientific feasibility of
        the mined concept is not yet established.

     o  Transuranic (TRU) wastes contain radioactive elements heavier
        than plutonium, and result from spent fuel reprocessing,
        decommissioning, and the fabrication of plutonium to produce
        nuclear weapons.  These wastes are to be disposed in a simi-
        lar manner to high-level waste.

     o  Low-level wastes (LLW) contain less than 10 nanocuries^" of
        transuranics per gram.  They require little or no shielding
        and contain low but potentially hazardous quantities of other
        radionuclides.  Low-level wastes are generated in almost all
        activities involving radioactive materials and are presently
        disposed of by shallow land burial.

     o  Uranium mine and mill tailings, the residues from uranium
        mining and milling operations, contain low concentrations of
        naturally occurring radioactive materials.  The tailings are
        generated in very large volumes and are now stored at the
        site of mining and milling operations.   Currently there are
        22 inactive mill tailings sites in the United States.
o 7
 'U.S. Department of Energy, Interagency Review Group on Nuclear
  Waste Management, Report to the President, TID-294-42/UC-70,  March
  1979, p. 42.
00    ' r
      nanocurie equals 1 billionth of a curie, while 1 curie is
                                                            in
  that amount of radioactive material that produces 3.7 x 10
  decays per second, for example 1 gram of radium.


                                  663

-------
     The Interagency Review Group on Radioactive Waste (IRG) stated
in their March 1979 report that for high-level waste, actual dispo-
sal rather than long-term interim storage is the proper approach in
order to avoid leaving a problem for future generations.   However,
selecting methods and sites is subject to considerable uncertainty.
In addition to technical problems, there may be political problems in
selecting the states where waste sites would be located.   In fact the
political problems may be the more difficult.  Thus, more than 30
years into our nuclear age, we have no permanent solution to the
waste disposal problem.  This prospect has led several leading offi-
cials and legislators to suggest that a cutoff date be set for gen-
erating radioactive waste until a disposal facility is in place.  The
IRG adopted a neutral position on that point. 9

     Some nuclear specialists have suggested reprocessing spent fuel
to recover any remaining fissionable uranium and plutonium, and then
disposing of the remaining high-level waste.  However, current U.S.
policy is to dispose of the spent fuel rods without reprocessing.
President Carter made this decision in 1977 to avoid the added risk
of weapons proliferation or nuclear terrorism that could arise if
separated plutonium (weapons-grade material) were obtainable (at
whatever point) in the nuclear fuel cycle.  Environmentally, disposal
of spent fuel and disposal of separated high-level waste present
similar problems, problems that are in some ways similar to those
encountered with persistent toxic chemical wastes.

     Although low-level waste and uranium mill tailings are less
radioactive than high-level waste, their greater volume and less
stringent disposal requirements make them a cause for concern.  The
leakage of radon gas from old mill tailings material has been identi-
fied as a serious problem, since this material was not regulated in
the past.  However, there is now authority for regulation of uranium
mill tailings, and it is anticipated that this problem will be
corrected.

     Despite the emphasis in this discussion on high-level waste, it
should not be concluded that the problems of low-level waste are
trivial.  In fact, low-level waste is generated at a rate approaching
10 million cubic feet per year.  This includes substantial amounts
from biomedical uses, which will be generated even in the absence of
nuclear power.  This problem attained some prominence in October
     . Department of Energy, Interagency Review Group on Nuclear
  Waste Management, Report to the President, TID-294-42/UC-70, March
  1979, p. 7.
                                 664

-------
 1979, when  two  of  the  remaining three U.S. low-level disposal sites,
 in Nevada and Washington, were closed temporarily by state order.
 The  commercial  waste is primarily  in the  form of spent  fuel, while
 the  defense waste  is in the form of reprocessed high-level waste and
 separated TRU waste.   However, the amount of radioactive waste that
 has  been generated by  the commercial nuclear power industry is now
 comparable, in  terms of its radioactivity, to that generated by
 defense activities.  Furthermore,  the radioactive waste generation
 rate from defense  activities  is relatively small and constant, while
 that  from commercial nuclear  power is larger and growing.

     Projections of the future quantities of radioactive waste gener-
 ated  in 2000 are shown in Table 12-6 for  two nuclear scenarios, Case
 1 (148 GWe) corresponding to  plants presently operating or with
 construction permits and Case 2 (380 GWe) corresponding roughly to
 DOE's 1977 growth projections.  In either case, the quantities of
 radioactive waste will be significant.

      In summary, high-level waste, consisting of both spent fuel rods
 and  reprocessing waste, is considered the crux of the nuclear fuel
 cycle problem.  At present, there  are 9 million cubic feet of defense
 high-level wastes stored temporarily in the United States; another 2
 thousand tons of spent reactor fuel needs storage.  With the con-
 tinued operation of nuclear power plants, which discharge about 30
 tons of spent fuel yearly, this figure may rise to 100 thousand tons
 by the end of the century.

     Table 12-7 gives  two projections of the increase in nuclear fuel
 cycle facilities corresponding to the scenarios in Table 12-6.  After
 the Three Mile  Island  accident, it seems likely that these should be
 taken as upper  limits  on the  number of facilities to be expected.

     Global Fallout
     In the past, great concern was expressed over global fallout,
but following cessation of atmospheric testing of nuclear weapons by
the United States and the Soviet Union in 1962, the problem has
decreased.  There have been only a few, relatively small tests by
other countries (China, India, and France) since then, and their
effect has been correspondingly small.  Table 12-8 illustrates the
decline in dose rates; however, it also shows a continuing annual
dose of about 4 mrem/person resulting from long-lived contamination
left behind from previous tests.  Global fallout is third only to
natural background and medical-dental radiation as a source of the
radiation dose to the U.S. population (see Table 12-9).
                                 665

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                                                           TABLE  12-6
                                                RADIOACTIVE WASTE GENERATION
                                                  2000:   Case  1
                                                     148 GWe
                                                                 2000:  Case 2
                                                                    380 GWe
                Type
                  Existing       Amount    Acres Required     Amount    Acres Required
                   Waste       Generated     for Disposal    Generated    for Disposal
cr>
             High-Level
             Waste  (million
             Transuranic
             Waste  (million
Spent Fuelb
(thousand tons)

Low-Level
Waste (million
ft3)

Uranium Mill
Tailings
(million tons)
                                  9.4
                                 15
                                  2.3
                                 67
                                140
   71.1
  121
1,900
                                                54
                                                            186
1400
 438
                                                                           116
                                                                           97.8
                                                                          450
                                                                         5,200
  491



3,177


2,900



1,636
             aAs planned, without reprocessing,  there  will  be  no  additional separated commercial HLW.  Defense
              projections are classified but small.
             bFuel that is reprocessed 150 days  after  removal  from a reactor has about 4 million curies of
              radioactivity and 20 kW of heat per  metric  ton of  fuel processed.  This leads to 4,000 liters of
              high-level waste, which is then concentrated  to  600 liters per metric ton of fuel, or 21.2 ft3 per
              metric ton.  On this basis, the spent  fuel  inventory would be equivalent to about 48,000 ft3.

             Sources:  U.S. Department of Energy,  Interagency  Review Group on Nuclear Waste Management, Report to the
                       President, March 1979, pp.  11,  12, D-3,-7,-8,-10,-15.-17,-18,  and -21.  Also, English, T.D.
                       et al., An Analysis of the  Technical Status of High-Level Radioactive Waste and Spent Fuel
                       Management Systems, JPL Pub.  #77-69, California Energy Resources Conservation and Development
                       Commission, p. 5-1.

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                             TABLE 12-7
               NOMINAL "LIFETIME" REQUIREMENTS FOR NUCLEAR
                      WASTE MANAGEMENT AND DISPOSAL
                                                     *a              o
	Requirement	Case 1         Case 2

Geologic Repositories:

     For defense high-level wastes                1              1

     For defense transuranic wastes               1              2

     For commercial high-level waste"             2              5

Potential Away-From-Reactor
Spent Fuel Storage Facilities:

     If repository opens in 1988                  3              3

     If repository opens in 2000                 12             14

Low-Level Waste Disposal Sites:
(acres-required)

     Commercial low-level wastes                300            950

     Defense low-level wastes                   140            700

Uranium Mine and Mill Tailings:

     Billions of tons                             1.9            5.2

     Number of sites                             40             40

Decontamination and Decommissioning
Activities:

     Number of facilities decontaminated
     and decommissioned (commercial facil-
     ities only)                                148            380


                               (continued)
                                667

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                         TABLE 12-7 CONCLUDED
         Requirement
Transportation:

     Low-level waste volumec

     Number of trips with high-
     level wastes

     Transuranic waste volume0
Case la



  120


 1400

    6.8
Case 2C



  450


 3200

  116
aDefined in Appendix B:  Case 1 — 148 GWe by 2000; Case 2 — 380 GWe
 by 2000.
"The requirement for repository space is not sensitive to the de-
 cision to dispose of spent fuel or to reprocess the spent fuel and
 recycle the uranium and plutonium.
cMillions of cubic feet, cumulative through the year 2000.
°The number of trips does not include interim storage of spent fuel in
 an AFR storage facility.  Depending on the date of a repository opening,
 these numbers could be 50 percent higher.

Source:  U.S. Department of Energy, Interagency Review Group on Nuclear
         Waste Management, Report to the President, TID-29442/UC-70, March
         1979, p. 12.
                                 668

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                              TABLE 12-8
            TOTAL ANNUAL WHOLE BODY DOSES FROM GLOBAL FALLOUT
U.S.
Population
(millions)
1963 190
1965 194
1969 204
1985 234a
1990 245a
2000 262a
Per Capita
Dose
(mrem)
13
6.9
4.0
4.5b
4.6
4.9
Man-rem for
U.S. Population Year
(millions)
2.47
1.33
0.82
1.05
1.10
1.28
aSEAS High Growth Scenario
^Interpolated

Source:  Klement, A.W. Jr. et al.,  Estimates of Ionizing
         Radiation Doses in the United States, 1960-2000, U.S.
         Environmental Protection Agency, ORP.CSD 72-1, Montgomery,
         Alabama, 1972, p. 22.
                                 669

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12.2.6  Effects of Ionizing Radiation

     To present an effective analysis of the biological effects of
ionizing radiation on the population, several factors must be speci-
fied.  These include type of radiation, duration of exposure, dose
(low or high-^), dose rate, exposed group (workers, or sensitive
groups such as children or pregnant women),  and exposure route
(internal or external).  This discussion of  biological effects is
divided into four categories:  human somatic (direct bodily health
effects), human genetic, human growth and development, and general
environmental effects.

     Table 12-9 gives estimates of the collective radiation dose to
the U.S. population and repeats the average  individual radiation
doses from Table 12-1.

     Human Health Effects

     The consequences of whole body acute exposure to high doses of
radiation are known.  A dose of 450 to 600 rem causes failure of the
blood-forming tissue and results in a 50 percent chance of death
within a few weeks, in the absence of treatment.  Doses of less than
100 rem produce few acute somatic symptoms,  although lymphocyte
depression can be detected at doses of 25 to 50 rem.  At lower lev-
els, a cause-effect relationship cannot be directly traced in indi-
vidual cases.  However, at doses below 5 rem, statistical increases
in fatalities have been observed among uranium miners.-'1  The
linear no-threshold hypothesis is customarily used to extrapolate to
very low dose rates, leading to an assumed risk of 180 deaths per
million person-rem and about an equal number of serious non-fatal
healths effects as discussed below.  In comparison, the risk of
genetic mutation over the first five generations is estimated to be
about 400 mutations per million person-rem.

     Acute Somatic Effects.  The acute clinical symptoms of exposure
to radiation appear only at very large doses—25,000 millirems and
above.  Acute fatal doses are in the range of 300,000 millirems and
above.  Actual exposures that have produced acute symptoms have been
rare, except as a result of atomic (i.e., nuclear) weapon use, and in
some cases, cancer treatment.
      term low-level radiation can be ambiguous.  In defining low-
  dose radiation, radiologists use tens of rem or less, while radi-
  ation protection specialists use tens to hundreds of millirem.
31Ham, J.M., Report of the Royal Commission on the Health and
  Safety of Workers in Mines, Ministry of the Attorney General,
  Province of Ontario, Toronto, 1976.

                                  670

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                                 TABLE  12-9
                    RADIATION DOSE TO  U.S. POPULATION
    U.S. General Population

Collective Dose Estimates - 1978
Millions of Person-

   rems  per Year
Per Capita Average

  (millirem/yr)
Source:

   Natural background

   Technologically enhanced

   Medical and dental

   Nuclear weapons fallout

   Nuclear weapons development,
   testing, and production

   Nuclear energy

   Consumer products

U.S. Occupational Exposures
       20

        1

       18

        1.3


        0.0002

        0.06

        0.006
       100

         5

        90

         6.5
Estimates - 1975
Source:
Healing arts
Manufacturing and industrial
Nuclear energy
Research
Naval reactors
Nuclear weapons development
and production
Other occupations

0.06
0.05
0.05
0.01
0.01
0.001
0.05
Note:  These figures differ somewhat  from those given in Table 12-1
       but they are the same order of magnitude.  It is hoped that
       the National Academy of  Sciences BEIR-3 report will provide
       a definitive assessment  of radiation doses when that report
       is released.

Source:  U.S.  Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Report
         of the Interagency Task Force on the Health Effects of
         Ionizing Radiation,  June 1979, p. 15.
                                      671

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     Late Somatic Effects.  The late somatic effects of ionizing
radiation include leukemia and other forms of cancer that do not
appear immediately but may take years to develop.  For high doses
other effects are important but they are not discussed here.  Results
of animal studies and scattered human data from atomic bomb survi-
vors and occupational and therapeutic situations indicate a possible
relationship between low doses and long-term health effects.32
However, the magnitude of the effect is the subject of scientific
controversy.

     Data on both medical and occupational exposures show excessive
occurrence of cancer in people subjected to radiation exposures
greater than 50 rem.  Increased cancer rates have been observed among
radiologists and radium dial painters, and there is evidence of such
an increase among nuclear workers.^3

     We do not know the health effects of low-level radiation from
direct clinical evidence, but the 1972 BEIR Report3^ estimates
roughly 180 cancer deaths per million person-rem exposure.  There is
supporting evidence from animal studies, but its application to
humans is a matter of interpretation.  The BEIR Committee estimated
that background radiation is responsible for 1,700 to 9,000 cancer
deaths per year in the U.S. population with a best estimate of 3,500
(i.e., 1 percent of all cancer deaths).

     The linear, no-threshold hypothesis is illustrated in Figures
12-4 and 12-5.  This hypothesis extrapolates from the high-level
radiation data to low doses by fitting a straight line, with a posi-
tive slope at zero dose, as in curve (1).  It assumes that however
small the dose, there is some probability of cancer.

     However, this extrapolation ignores the possibility of cell
repair mechanisms3^ which might reduce the risk due to exposure at
low levels, in effect producing a threshold.  There is some evidence
for such a repair mechanism with certain types of radiation, such as
3^Libassi, F.G., Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Report
  of the Work Group on Science of the Interagency Task Force on
  Ionizing Radiation, June 1979, p. 7.  See also Figures 12-4 and
  12-5 in this report.
33Ibid, pp. 17-19.
-^National Academy of Sciences, Advisory Committee on the Biologi-
  cal Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR), The Effects on Popula-
  tions of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation, 1972, p.
  170.  Using the relative risk model.
35Ibid, pp. 64-65.
                                 672

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             .0012
          C/3

          g .0006-
          <7J
          Ed
                                           (2)  /
(1)
                  0              150            300
                       BONE MARROW DOSE (RAD)

Note:  Curve  (1) is a linear fit;  Curve (2) Is added as an example
      of a threshold response.

Source:  Adapted from U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare,
        Report of the Work Group  on Science, Interagency Task Force
        on the Health Effects of  Ionizing Radiation, June 1979, p. 72.

                        FIGURE 12-4
LEUKEMIA INCIDENCE IN A-BOMB SURVIVORS, NAGASAKI
                          1950-1971

              .0011	=	
          w .0005
          Cu
                  0              140            280
                      BREAST TISSUE DOSE (RAD)

Note:  Curve (1)  is a linear fit; Curve (3) is added as an example of
      a saturation effect.

Source:  Adapted  from U.S. Department of Health, Education and Welfare,
        Report of the Work Group on Science,  Interagency Task Force on
        the Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, June 1979, p. 74.

                        FIGURE 12-5
   BREAST CANCER INCIDENCE IN A-BOMB SURVIVORS
                HIROSHIMA AND NAGASAKI
                          1950-1969
                             673

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gamma rays.  In such a situation the linear hypothesis leads to an
over-estimation of the damage.  A possible example of a threshold is
seen in curve (2) of Figure 12-4 on leukemia incidence.  Because of
large statistical uncertainties in the data, it is not possible to
conclude which curve, the linear or the threshold curve, is the more
correct.  However, the existence of a threshold at low levels cannot
be excluded as a possibility for some types of effects.

     On the other hand, the high-level data may be biased by a sat-
uration effect due to cell-killing.  If a cell is killed, it will not
become cancerous, so high doses may produce fewer cancers than would
otherwise be expected.  Such an effect would mean that the risk due
to low-level exposure is higher than that estimated from a linear fit
to the data.  A possible example of saturation due to cell-killing is
shown by curve (3) in Figure 12-5 on breast cancer. "  The data
appear more consistent with a saturation effect at about 140 rad,
above which there would be no further increase in cancer incidence
(curve 3), than they do with a simple linear hypothesis (curve 1),
but again the statistical uncertainties are too great to allow a
definitive conclusion.  Thus, there is continuing debate within the
scientific community on how the actual risk compares with the linear
no-threshold hypothesis.

     Genetic Effects.  The genetic effects of ionizing radiation are
gene mutations and chromosome aberrations.  Genetic effects simply
imply transmission to later generations, in contrast to somatic
effects, which are observed directly in the exposed generation.
Thus, genetic effects are associated with damage to the gonadal cells
of the organism, while somatic effects result from damage to other
cells.  Genetic effects can include many types of abnormalities which
can appear in the first generation of offspring, or may be postponed
for several generations.

     Animal evidence supports the hypothesis that genetic effects
occur at both high and low doses of ionizing radiation, but there is
no direct evidence in humans.  Extrapolation from animal data has
been used to estimate the genetic risk to be 200 mutations or chromo-
somal aberrations per year for 10 million person-rem annual expo-
sure. '  This would imply 4,000 effects per year in the U.S.
        C.E., "Estimate of Risk From Low-Dose Exposures to Ionizing
  Radiation," Journal of the National Cancer Institute, in press,
  cited in U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, Inter-
  agency Task Force on the Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation:
  Report of the Work Group on Science, 1979, p. 74.
  National Academy of Sciences, Advisory Committee on the Biologi-
  cal Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR), The Effects on Popula-
  tions of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation, 1972, pp.
  52-54.
                                  674

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population due to radiation background.  However, there is some
recent evidence that the genetic risk is less than previously
thought. °  The total spontaneous mutation rate for many genes
(available from human data) ranges from 0.5 x 10~" to 0.5 x lO""-*
per gene per generation (or 40,000 effects total per year in the
United States).  Since we know that ionizing radiation can cause
genetic mutations, the question remains, Is the risk of the
associated increase in genetic mutation rate acceptable to society,
when compared with the alternatives?  We need additional information
about radiation—induced mutation in humans and the role of mutations
in maintaining disease incidence within a given human population.

     Growth and Developmental Effects.  Exposure to high levels of
ionizing radiation as a fetus or juvenile may have three major
effects on human growth and development:  growth impairment,
microcephaly (reduced head circumference), and mental retardation.
Acute effects of ionizing radiation upon the human fetus are the
destruction or alteration of developing cells.  These damaged
developing cells may prohibit or delay the correct development of
organs or entire organ systems.  Radionuclides from the external
environment may concentrate within an organ, thus retarding body
growth.  A strong association exists between high, acute exposure
(greater than 50 rem) and abnormal development, as exhibited in data
from Japan, the Marshall Islands, and medical radiotherapy records.
With chronic low doses of radiation, the results of animal studies
disagree on whether there is an association with harmful develop-
mental effects.-5"  And, normal background exposures are several
orders of magnitude below those used in these animal studies, so once
again the analysis requires significant extrapolation, with all the
uncertainty that implies.
O Q
JOCrow, J.F., University of Wisconsin, in a paper ("Can We Assess
  Genetic Risks?") presented to the 6th International Congress of
  Radiation Research (Tokyo, May 1979) stated that, on the basis of
  data from animal studies since BEIR-II, the genetic hazard of
  radiation appears much less than previously thought.  The mutant
  strains were dying out after a few generations, rather than
  persisting, as assumed.
-^National Academy of Sciences, Advisory Committee on the Biologi-
  cal Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR), The Effects on Pop-
  ulations of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation, 1972, pp.
  78-81.
                                 675

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12.3  NONIONIZING RADIATION

12.3.1  Introduction

     Microwaves, radio waves, and electromagnetic fields at power
line frequencies, as well as other forms of nonionizing radiation,
are widely present in our environment.  Since World War II, techno-
logical advances have made many new applications of nonionizing
radiation possible, so that it has become an integral part of our
society.  The public has become increasingly concerned about its
effects, and asks many questions.  Unfortunately, not enough is known
yet to give clear answers to these questions.

     Reports of microwave signals beamed at the U.S. Embassy in Mos-
cow between 1953 and 1976 alarmed the public as well as the people
working within the Embassy.  However, a 2-year study, completed in
1978, conducted by Professor Abraham Lilienfeld of Johns Hopkins
University found no apparent ill effects attributable to the radia-
     Over half of the 112 reports, identified by FDA for the General
Accounting Office   as being particularly relevant to setting
microwave radiation standards, identify biological effects in animals
or humans when exposed to radiation levels at or below present U.S.
guidelines.  These reports indicate that some biological systems
respond to radiation levels previously considered too low to produce
observable responses (1-10 mW/ctn^).  However, neither the extent to
which these effects actually compromise living systems nor the condi-
tions necessary to produce such effects have been well defined. ^^
In addition, care must be taken in scaling animal data to humans,
^0Lilienfeld, A.M., Evaluation of the Health Statusof Foreign
  Service and Other Employees From Selected European Posts, NTIS:
  PB-288163, U.S. Department of State, July 31, 1978.  Also, Micro-
  wave Irradiation of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow;  A Review of its
  History and Studies to Determine Whether or Not Related Health
  Defects Were Experienced by Employees Assigned in the Period
  1953-1977, prepared at the request of Hon. Howard W. Cannon,
  Chairman, Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, U.S.
  Senate, April  1979, 96th Congress, 1st Session, U.S. Government
  Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1979.
^U.S. General Accounting Office, More Protection from Microwave
  Radiation Hazards Needed, Report by the Comptroller General of the
  United States, HRD-79-7, November 30, 1978, p. 30.
^The Technical Review of the Biological Effects of Non-Ionizing
  Radiation, prepared for the Office of Science and Technology Policy
  by an ad hoc Working Group, May 15, 1978, p. 5.


                                  676

-------
because absorption rates in tissue are perhaps 5 times lower at 80
MHz (human resonance) than at 2 GHz (mouse resonance).

     There is increasing interest in the effects of high voltage
transmission lines.  A Johns Hopkins University Hospital study of
electrical linemen who were regularly exposed to high electric fields
from such lines showed no significant bodily changes. ^  However,
some studies of workers in the U.S.S.R. at extra high voltage substa-
tions found that effects on the nervous system and cardiovascular
systems of the workers were related to exposure to high voltage
electric fields. ^  U.S. scientists do not agree on whether or not
electric fields associated with transmission lines produce adverse
biological effects. ^

     Government agencies, principally EPA, DOD, and HEW, are cur-
rently conducting research on the effects of electromagnetic radia-
tion over a wide range of frequencies.  A summary of these programs
has been recently published.^"  Information for each frequency
range is inadequate, and all require further research so that
statistically valid conclusions can be reached about the relation
between exposure and effects of nonionizing radiation.

12.3.2  Regulatory Background

     The three primary Federal agencies responsible for the regula-
tion of nonionizing radiation are EPA, HEW, and the Department of
Labor, as shown in Figure 12-6.

     Reorganization Plan No. 3 of 1970, which created EPA, also gave
the Agency the responsibility to establish generally applicable
environmental standards for nonionizing as well as ionizing radia-
tion.   This reorganization also transferred to the EPA Administrator
      Technical Review of the Biological Effects of Non-Ionizing
  Radiation, prepared for the Office of Science and Technology Policy
  by an ad hoc Working Group, May 15, 1978, p.  43.
  U.S. Senate, Committee on Commerce, Science,  and Transportation,
  Hearings on Radiation Health and Safety, First Session on Oversight
  of Radiation Health and Safety, 95th Congress, 1st Session,  June
  16, 17, 27, 28 and 29, 1977, Serial No. 95-49, Washington, B.C.,
  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1977.
      Technical Review of the Biological Effects of Non-Ionizing
  Radiation, prepared for the Office of Science and Technology Policy
  by an ad hoc Working Group, May 15, 1978, p.  43.
  U.S. Department of Commerce, National Telecommunications and
  Information Administration, Fifth Report on "Program for Control of
  Electromagnetic Pollution of the Environment:  The Assessment of
  Biological Hazards of Nonionizing Electromagnetic Radiation,"
  Washington, D.C.,  NTIA Report 79-19, March 1979.

                                  677

-------
     FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION,

                           I
     BUREAU OF RADIOLOGICAL HEALTH
                           \
      NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF OCCUPA-
        TIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH
                                OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY
                             AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION
                          ENVIRONMENTAL
                        PROTECTION AGENCY
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS
FOR ELECTRONIC PRODUCTS
                                           OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND
                                            HEALTH ACT STANDARDS
                 FEDERAL GUIDES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
                     RADIOFREQUENCY RADIATION
Source:
 Janes,  D.E. Jr., "The EPA Environmental Radiofrequency
 Program:  Present Status and Environmental Findings,"
 Presented at the 1978 Joint Meeting  of the Aerospace and
 Flight  Test Radio Coordinating Council and the Frequency
 Managers Group, Range Commanders Council, Arlington, Vir-
 ginia,  October 14, 1978.

                    FIGURE 12-6
AGENCIES RESPONSIBLE FOR NONIONIZING RADIATION
                               678

-------
authority from the Federal Radiation Council to "...advise the
President with respect to radiation matters, directly or indirectly
affecting health, including guidance for all Federal agencies in the
formulation of radiation standards and in the establishment and
execution of programs of cooperation with States."^  EPA is cur-
rently conducting research to determine possible health effects
associated with microwaves, various broadcast frequencies, and power
transmission line frequencies.  Environmental measurements, evalua-
tion, and the development of guidelines are carried out by EPA's
Office of Radiation Programs, in the Office of Air, Noise, and Radia-
tion.

     The Department of Health, Education, and Welfare acquired its
authority under the Radiation Control for Health and Safety Act of
1968 (PL 90-602).  This authority is exercised by  the Bureau of
Radiological Health (BRH) of the Food and Drug Administration.  BRH
operates an electronic product radiation control program and develops
performance standards.

     The Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970 (PL 91-596) gives
the Department of Labor authority over occupational safety.  This
authority is exercised by the Occupational Health  and Safety Admin-
istration (OSHA), with research support from the National Institute
of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH).

     In addition, the newly formed National Telecommunications and
Information Administration (NTIA),48 the successor to the Office of
Telecommunication Policy (OTP), is assigned the responsibility for
formulating national telecommunication policy.  The Electromagnetic
Radiation Management Advisory Council (ERMAC) advises NTIA on possi-
ble effects associated with the use of the electromagnetic spectrum.
The Interdepartmental Radio Advisory Committee (IRAC) assists NTIA in
developing policies and criteria for the use of the spectrum.

     Federal standard setting activities for nonionizing radiation
are in flux.  In 1966, based on the results of experiments designed
to assess the thermal effects of nonionizing radiation, the American
National Standards Institute (ANSI) recommended a  voluntary guideline
of 10 mW/cm^.  OSHA endorsed the ANSI standard but the courts ruled
this standard as advisory only.  The Department of Defense adopted
the ANSI standard; otherwise, at present, no legally enforceable
occupational or environmental exposure standard exists.  The BRH
    USC 2021(h).
48flational Telecommunication and Information Administration,  Execu-
  tive Order 12046,  March 27, 1978,  Federal Register,  Vol.  43,  pp.
  13349-13357, March 29, 1978.

                                  679

-------
microwave oven standard became effective in October 1971 and applies
to all microwave oven manufacturers.  Accordingly, microwave ovens
may not emit more than 1 mW/cm2 at the time of production and 5
mW/cm2 thereafter in the life of the product,  measured at a dis-
tance of 5 cm from the
     Several additional standards for nonionizing radiation are
pending.  The Bureau of Radiological Health has issued a proposed
standard for microwave diathermy equipment.  NIOSH is developing a
criteria document with recommendations for occupational exposure to
microwaves and other radio frequency sources.  EPA is developing
guidance for controlling environmental levels of radiofrequency
radiation. ^  Congress has shown interest in this area and has held
numerous hearings covering topics from microwave ovens to exposure of
helicopter pilots to radio beams during flight training.

     Recent research conducted by EPA" s Experimental Biology Division
of the Health Effects Research Laboratory at Research Triangle Park
has found that at relatively low levels, chronic exposure to radio
frequency radiation has induced morphological changes in brain tissue
as well as immunological and behavioral changes, and blood chemistry
effects in laboratory animals. 51  These results suggest that at
certain frequencies the 10 mW/cm2 standard fails to provide an
adequate margin of safety.  As a result, ANSI has proposed to lower
the standard to 1 mW/cm^ in the frequency range for human resonance
(30-300 MHz).

12.3.3  Data Sources and Organization of Discussion

     The Bureau of Radiological Health and EPA" s Office of Radiation
Programs and Office of Research and Development are the primary sour-
ces for nonionizing radiation data used in this report.  Information
on trends was obtained from the Electronics Industries Association.

12.3.4  Sources of Nonionizing Radiation

     The three major sources of nonionizing radiation discussed here
are microwaves, radio waves, and high voltage transmission lines.
Other sources are ultraviolet, visible, and infrared light.
     CFR 1030.10.
50start Action Notice, April 30, 1979.
51U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and
  Development, Research Outlook 1980, EPA 600/9 80-006, Washington
  D.C., February 1980, pp. 144-146.
                                  680

-------
     Microwave radiation is radiofrequency radiation with frequency
between 300 MHz and 300 GHz, which overlays the upper end of the
frequency range of radio waves.  Microwave radiation is emitted from
microwave ovens, medical and dental diathermy apparatus, alarm sys-
tems, radar, communications relay systems, and industrial heating and
drying devices.

     Ordinary radio waves have frequencies from 10 KHz to 300 MHz and
are emitted from TV and radio broadcast stations, radionavigational
systems, amateur and industrial RF equipment, emergency medical
radio, and long-range communications systems.  The FM and VHF fre-
quencies in the 30 MHz to 300 MHz band are of particular concern in
regard to human health effects.

     High voltage transmission lines for electric power operate at
low frequencies (60Hz) but at voltages as high as 765 kilovolts.
This in turn produces ground-level electric fields as high as 9
kilovolts per meter.  Extremely low frequency (ELF) communication
antennas produce radiation of similar frequency (70 Hz) but with much
lower intensity.

     Infrared (IR) light radiation has frequencies from 3 x 10H to
3 x 10^  Hz and is emitted from any surface heated to a higher tem-
perature than an adjacent surface.  A transfer of heat energy occurs
whenever radiant energy emitted by one body is absorbed by another.

     Visible light radiation is emitted from the sun as well as from
artificial light sources, arc-welding processes, and incandescent
bodies.  Lasers (Light Amplification by Stimulated Emission of Radia-
tion) emit extremely high-intensity, coherent-light radiation of a
single wavelength (or narrow band).

     Ultraviolet (UV) light radiation is emitted from the sun, fluor-
escent lamps, and from industrial devices such as electric welding
arcs and germicidal lamps.  Human exposure can also result from lamps
used in other occupational activities such as blueprinting, laundry
marking, illuminating instrument dials, detecting crime, photo
engraving, and sterilizing food, water, and air.

     The greatest environmental concern centers on radiation from a
frequency of 30 MHz to 300 MHz because this is the range of highest
                                  681

-------
absorption by the human body.52  Lower frequencies tend to pass
through with very little interaction.  Penetration of radiation from
300 MHz to 3 GHz is shallow, and frequencies higher than 3 GHz hardly
penetrate the skin.  This frequency band includes the upper end of
the radiowave spectrum (i.e., very high and ultra high frequencies),
and extends into the microwave region.

12.3.5  Trends

     Since World War II, the use of nonionizing radiation has in-
creased tremendously for a wide variety of purposes, including com-
munication systems, navigation, broadcasting, radar, industrial
processes, consumer products, and medical applications.  Figures 12-7
and 12-8 indicate the increased demand.

     Table 12-10 shows sales trends for electronic products.  This
aggregate sales summary includes many items such as receivers and
computers, which are not of particular environmental concern because
they do not emit radiation.  The summary also includes transmitters,
radar, and diathermy equipment, which do emit radiation.  The overall
trend illustrated is a useful, although crude, measure of the growth
in radiofrequency and microwave radiation.  The spectacular growth in
the electronics industry is evident.  At present, sales are increas-
ing at about 15 percent per year.  The 10-year trend projection shown
is for government (primarily military) sales only.  These sales are
projected to grow from $17 billion in FY 1979 to $25 billion in 1988,
a growth rate of nearly 5 percent per year.  A continued increase in
environmental radiation can be expected as a result of increased use
of the microwave, UHF, and VHF bands, generally preferred for mili-
tary uses.

     Some other indicators are of interest.  For example, as measured
in current dollars:  sales of electronic power tubes have doubled in
the last 15 years, from $270 million in 1965 to $585 million in 1979;
the number of CB license applications has increased by a factor of 10
in the last nine years from 210,000 in 1970 to 2.2 million in 1979
(the peak, in 1976, was over 5 million); and sales of radar, sonar,
loran, and similar items have increased at a rate of about 7 percent
per year from $4.7 billion in 1970 to $7.7 billion in 1979.  Sales of
52Candhi, O.P. , "Polarization and Frequency Effects on Whole Animal
  Absorption of RF Energy," Proc. IEEE 62, August 1974, pp.  1171-
  1175, cited in U.S. Senate, Committee on Commerce, Science, and
  Transportation, Hearings on Radiation Health and Safety,  First
  Session on Oversight of Radiation Health and Safety, 95th Congress,
  June 16, 17, 28, and 29, 1977, Serial No. 95-49, Washington D.C.
  U.S., Government Printing Office 1977, p. 210.

                                 682

-------
                  j     30,000
                  HH
                  w c^   10,000

                  ^o
                  g H    3,000
                  ^H
                  Hwf  i'000

                  35 5 J   300
                    2
                  3
                  z
100
 30
                           10
                                     PUBLIC SAFETY
LAND TRANSPORTATION
                                   I
                I
               I
                            1974   1975    1976   1977    1978
                                        YEAR
       Note:  This is a  logarithmic  graph.
      Source:  Electronic Industries  Association,  Electronic Market  Data
              Book:  1979, Washington,  D.C., 1979, p.  43. Used with  permission.

                                  FIGURE 12-7
                 HISTORICAL INCREASES IN LAND MOBILE RADIO
                               SERVICE STATIONS

                                  TABLE 12-10
             ANNUAL FACTORY SALES OF ELECTRONICS BY  INDUSTRY GROUP
                           UNITED STATES:  1939-1988
                                  ($ MILLION)


Year
1939
1950
1960
1970
1978
1979
1983
1988

Government
Products3
$ 37
655
6,124
11,295
16,300
17,300
20,800
25,100
Industrial
Electronic
Component
_


$ 7,841
24,462
-
-
"

Communications
Equipment
_
$ 1,005
8,104
10,080
19,787
-
-
"

Consumer
Electronics
186
1,500
1,774
3,683
9,303
-
-
"


Total
186
2,505
9,878
21,604
53,552
-
-
"
aGovernment is included in communications equipment and industrial electronic
 component, but is broken out seperately for convenience.

Source:  Adapted from Electronic Industries Association,  Electronic Market  Data
         Book;  1979, Washington, D.C., 1979.   Used with permission.
                                      683

-------
            5000
        H
        en

        6
        Q
            4000
        oS
        I—i
        <
        z
        o
        CO
        z

            3000
        o
        erf
        td
        M

        P
        Z
            2000
            1000
              1960
1970
1980
1990
                                  YEAR
       high power TV broadcast stations.

 TV translators and boosters are low power broadcast stations which

 pick up transmission from the major TV broadcast stations and

 redirect the transmission to a given location.

Note:  The data have been  extrapolated for the years beyond 1978.


Source:  Electronic Industries Association, Electronic Market Data

         Book; 1979, Washington, D.C., 1979, p. 50.  Used with

         permission.


                            FIGURE 12-8

           PROJECTED INCREASES IN BROADCAST SERVICES
                                 684

-------
a new product, microwave ovens, climbed from 50,000 units in 1971 to
1.6 million in 1976.53  Sales of lasers reached $600 million in
1978 and continue to grow at a rate of about 15 percent per year. The
number of major TV transmitters, while still rising, may be reaching
saturation at about 1,000 units.  This is 50 percent higher than its
1960 value, indicating an average annual growth rate below 2.5
percent.

     The growth in these sources represents a significant economic
investment.  During 1978, sales of communications and electronic
products totaled about $50 billion, more than doubling since 1971.
Of this total, about 50 percent went into the civilian communication
and industrial market, 30 percent into the government market, and 18
percent into the consumer-product market.-^

     The number of sources of nonionizing radiation is expected to
increase.  The number of microwave and radiofrequency sources is
estimated to increase by 15 percent annually (see Figure 12-8).  If
these trends continue, it is projected that over 4,000 TV and 5,000
FM radio transmitters will be on the air by 1985, compared to 2,500
of each in 1970.  This represents an increase of 5 percent per year.
On the other hand, the number of AM radio transmitters appears to be
reaching saturation at about 4,700, about 4 percent above the 1970
figure.  And, as noted above, the number of major TV transmitters
appears to be stabilizing at about 1,000; the rest are low power
stations.

     The Department of Defense is the largest user of nonionizing
electromagnetic radiation devices.  The U.S. Army alone has nearly
350,000 transmitting devices.  Many are low powered, but some are
very high powered, and these are not uniformly deployed.  Figure 12-9
shows the location of 29 high-powered Army transmitters, of which
over half are in New Mexico and Florida.^*  These systems are used
for satellite communications and air defense.

     One rather esoteric source of particular interest in projecting
the future is the proposed solar power satellite, which would be a
53The Technical Review of the Biological Effects of Non-Ionizing
  Radiation, prepared for the Office of Science and Technology Policy
  by an ad hoc Working Group, May 15, 1978, p. 15.
-^Ibid, p. 13.  Also Electronic Industries Association, Electronic
  Market Data Book:  1979, Washington, D.C.,  1979.
^^U.S. Senate, Committee on Commerce, Science, and  Transportation,
  Hearings on Radiation Health and Safety, First Session on Oversight
  of Radiation Health and Safety, 95th Congress, June 16, 17,  27, 28
  and 29, Serial No. 95-49, Washington, D.C.,  U.S.  Government
  Printing Office, 1977, p. 349.

                                 685

-------
   solar collector in orbit  around  the  earth.  Collected energy would be
   sent to earth by microwave  beam.   The environmental effects of such a
   system are still being  evaluated.
Source:  U.S.  Senate,  Committee on Commerce,  Science,  and Transportation,
         Hearings on Radiation Health and Safety,  95th Congress,  1st
         Session, Serial No.  95-49,  Washington,  D.C.,  U.S.  Government
         Printing Office, June 1977.

                               FIGURE 12-9
                    HIGH POWER ARMY TRANSMITTERS

   12.3.6  Effects  and  Implications

        The biological  effects  of nonionizing radiation have been of
   modest concern to scientists for  many  years.  However, it is only in
   the  last 10 years that public  interest has led to an expanding
   research program to  detect and evaluate these effects, especially
   nonthermal  effects,  and  the  program  is still relatively small.
   Recent research  has  indicated  that five areas should receive the
   highest priority in  future investigations:-*"

        o  the nervous  system
        o  growth and developmental  mechanisms
        o  membrane structure and function
   "u.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency, Office of Research and
     Development,  Research  Outlook 1980, EPA 600/9 80-006, Washington,
     B.C., February  1980, pp.  143-149.

                                  686

-------
     o  the immunological system
     o  thermal physiology

Other areas of concern include behavioral, cardiovascular, reproduc-
tive, ocular, and other environmental effects.

     Much of the U.S. research on radiation effects has been done on
moderate to high power levels (5 mW/cm^ and above).  Average power
density, frequency, and duration of exposure are the most important
factors in energy absorption, which is the most important factor in
determining health effects of radiation.  The following section deals
with the health effects of nonionizing radiation at levels both above
and below 10 mW/cm^.  A later subsection on regulatory standards
discusses further the possible effects of these lower levels of ex-
posure.

     Health Effects of Microwaves and Radio Waves

     The most immediate and obvious effects upon the human body from
exposure to microwave and radiowave radiation may be heat-induced.
At frequencies between 30 MHz and 3 GHz (wavelengths from 10 cm to
10 m) , radiation can penetrate the skin and raise the temperature
of subsurface tissues, membranes, and organs.  Lower frequency radia-
tion causes little effect, and higher frequency radiation can hardly
penetrate the skin.  Burns, eye cataracts, and gonadal damage have
been observed in animals which have had overdoses to high power lev-
els. "  Human studies are sparse, but there is some clinical evidence
in the work of Dr. M. Zaret on cataract formation, as cited in the
work of P. Brodeur (see reference 61).  However, animal studies at
comparable power levels have not verified this effect.

     Animal studies also provide evidence for numerous nonthermal ef-
fects of microwaves and radio waves upon the central nervous system,
the cellular systems, and the behavioral, immunological,  biochemical,
physiological, genetic, and development mechanisms.^"  However, it
will take further research to determine whether or not these effects
cause irreversible cellular damage or other harmful changes.
->'U.S. Department of Energy, Compilation and Assessment of Microwave
  Bioeffects, Final Report:   Selective Review of the Literature on
  the Biological Effects of Microwave in Relation to the Satellite
  Power System, PNL-2634, May 1978, pp.  9-11.
-*aThe Technical Review of the Biological Effects of Non-Ionizing
  Radiation, prepared for the Office of  Science and Technology Policy
  by an ad hoc working group, April 15,  1978, pp. 48 and 49,  also,
  U.S. Senate, Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation,
  Hearings on Radiation Health and Safety,  First Session on Over-
  sight of Radiation Health and Safety,  95th Congress,  June 16, 17,
  27, 28 and 29, 1977, Serial No.  95-49, Washington, D.C., U.S.
  Government Printing Office, 1977, p. 444.

                                  687

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     Health Effects of High Voltage Transmission Lines59

     High voltage transmission lines are a source of electromagnetic
fields within the 0-Hz to 300-Hz frequency range.  Although these are
quite local, they are a concern because the electric and magnetic
fields that surround high voltage transmission lines may affect
biological systems.  Healthy individuals experience nerve stimulation
and tingling body sensations when exposed to high strength 60-Hz
electric fields.  Induced spark discharges are an annoyance to people
near high voltage transmission lines that produce an electric field
of strength greater than 8 to 10 kilovolts per meter.  Maximum ground
level fields under a 765 kilovolt line are 9 to 10 kilovolts per
meter, dropping to 2 kilovolts per meter at the edge of the right-of-
way.  Adverse biological effects such as reduced growth rates and
behavioral changes have been reported in animals but not in humans.
Studies in the U.S.S.R. have reported nervous system and behavioral
effects at fields as low as 1 kilovolt per meter.  Scientists at DOE
and EPA are investigating whether any adverse biological or ecologi-
cal effects can be associated with electric and magnetic fields pro-
duced by high voltage transmissions lines.

     Health Effects of Ultraviolet

     Solar ultraviolet radiation is associated with skin cancer, and
chronic exposure to near-ultraviolet has been implicated as a cause
of cataracts.  People working outdoors in sunlight may develop skin
tumors, some of which may turn malignant.  Less dangerous manifesta-
tions are sunburn and general skin irritation.  Solar ultraviolet
radiation is discussed in Chapter 5, Global Atmospheric Pollution, in
the stratospheric ozone section.

     Artificial ultraviolet radiation has been used therapeutically
for treatment and prevention of rickets and for psoriasis therapy,
for surface sterilization, and for killing bacteria and molds.  A
potential eye hazard exists for individuals who work in sterile
"clean" rooms.

     Health Effects of Visible Light

     Visible light does not ordinarily present an environmental prob-
lem.  Bright light causes physiological responses in the eye (pupil-
lary reflex and eyelid closure) but generally leads only to discom-
fort, eye fatigue, or temporary vision interference.
      Technical Review of the Biological Effects of Non-Ionizing
  Radiation, prepared for the Office of Science and Technology Policy
  by an ad hoc working group, May 15, 1978, pp. 48-49.
                                  688

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     On the other hand, lasers can produce narrowly focused radiation
of very high intensity, which can damage the retina of the eye if one
is not careful to avoid looking into the beam.

     Health Effects of Infrared Light

     The shorter wavelength part of the infrared spectrum can injure
the cornea, iris, retina,  and lens of the eye.  Excessive exposure
can cause cataracts in the eye by overheating.60  Infrared sources
are not in widespread civilian use, except for heat or sun lamps.

     Regulatory Standards  for RF and Microwaves

     A variety of health effects have been observed to be caused by
exposures to radiofrequency and microwave radiation, including burns,
cataracts, and temporary sterility.61  These effects appear at
relatively high levels of  exposure, above 10 mW/cm2«"2  Research
to date has documented these effects.

     The U.S.  occupational exposure guideline for microwave radiation
is 10 mW/cm2.   Higher levels are allowed for exposures shorter than
6 minutes.  The Soviet Union and Poland specify permissible occupa-
tional exposures of 0.01 mW/cm2 and 0.2 mW/cm2, respectively.
Figure 12-10 indicates the relationship between the U.S.  exposure
guidelines and the U.S.S.R. exposure standard for microwave radia-
tion,  and a comparison with the U.S. emission standard for radiation
emitted from microwave ovens.  The Soviet public exposure standard is
0.001  mW/ cm2.  The Soviet and Polish standards are more  stringent
than the American standard because the American standard  is based
primarily on the cooling capability of the body (i.e., thermal
effects), whereas the Soviet and Polish standards are based primarily
on neurological and behaviorial effects.63  Meanwhile, Canada  is
considering a  revised occupational standard of 1 mW/cm2.
60seymour Z., "Review Article:   Near-UV Light and Cataracts,"
  Photochemistry and Photobiology,  Vol. 26,  October 1977,  pp.
  437-441.
6lBrodeur, P., The Zapping of America:   Microwaves, Their  Deadly
  Risk and the Cover-Up,  W.W. Norton and Co., New York,  1977, pp.  37,
  54-71, 198-201.
62ibid.
63oavid Rail, Director, National Institute of Environmental  Health
  Sciences, in U.S. Senate,  Committee on Commerce, Science,  and
  Transportation, Hearings on Radiation Health and Safety,  First
  Session on Oversight of Radiation Health and Safety,  95th  Congress,
  June 16, 17, 27, 28 and 29, 1977, Serial No. 95-49,  Washington,
  B.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, 1977, p. 678.

                                 689

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-1
   10.0
    1.0
£   0.1
PC)
CO
O
(X
w   .01
O
HH
CO

^  .001
       4        U.S. OCCUPATIONAL EXPOSURE GUIDELINE
       f
                            OLD OVEN (d)


                            NEW OVEN (e)
               [  U.S.S.R.
              c  OCCUPATIONAL
                 STANDARD
                U.S.S.R.; PUBLIC EXPOSURE STANDARD
                25
                          50
75
100
                                                         125
150
                DISTANCE FROM MICROWAVE OVEN (CENTIMETERS)
a. Limit for times up to 15 minutes
b. Limit for times up to 2 hours
c. Limit for times' greater than two hours
d. Used microwave oven emission - 5 mW/cm
e. New microwave oven emission -1 mW/cm^
f. Limit of 6 minutes fore exposure above 10 mW/cm
Note:  The curves  show that  exposure of a person using a microwave
       oven  for an eight hour work day would  be well below the U.S.
       guideline.   At  a distance of 50 centimeters (100 centimeters
       for an older  oven), the exposure would be equal to the U.S.S.R.
       standard.

Source:  U.S. General  Accounting Office, More Protection from Micro-
         wave Radiation Hazards Needed, Report by the Comptroller
         General of  the United States, Washington, D.C., HKD-79-7,
         November  30,  1978,  p. 16.

                             FIGURE 12-10
        MICROWAVE EXPOSURE STANDARDS AND GUIDELINES
                                  690

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     There is some evidence of health effects at levels of exposure
below 10 mW/cm  but greater than 0.01 mW/cm ,   reported
primarily by investigators from Eastern European countries; however,
the research results at these low power levels have not yet been
confirmed in this country.  It is hoped that research programs
initiated to investigate the existence and significance of such
effects will resolve this controversy.

     Population Exposure

     Several studies have been conducted to estimate the U.S. popula-
tion's exposure to environmental nonionizing radiation.  Table 12-11
indicates ambient radiation levels near certain major sources in the
United States.  Note that these levels are low compared to U.S. expo-
sure standards, but not compared to Eastern European standards.

     An EPA survey of metropolitan areas has shown that the average
intensity of the nonionizing radiation to which the general public is
exposed is 0.01 to 0.02 microwatts/cm^, about a factor of 1,000
below even the U.S.S.R. occupational standard.^  The survey esti-
mates that only 0.5 percent are exposed to levels above the U.S.S.R.
standard of 0.001 mW/cm .  However, a more recent EPA survey indi-
                                                            O £. £.
cates that the median exposure in urban areas is 0.005 mW/cmz."b

     Table 12-12 shows an EPA assessment of the percentages of the
total U.S. population exposed to various levels of power density.
The U.S. and U.S.S.R. protective standards are shown for comparison.

     Eastern European countries have set their occupational exposure
standards at low levels, supported by their data.  The United States
has set a voluntary occupational standard (mandatory for Federal
employees) at a higher level, supported by EPA data.  Controversy and
questions abound and remain.  What are the effects of low levels of
nonionizing radiation?  What is the health and ecological signifi-
cance of these effects?  What populations are actually affected?
"U.S. General Accounting Office, More Protection from Microwave
  Radiation Hazards Needed, Report by the Comptroller General of the
  United States, Washington, D.C., HRD-79-7, November 30, 1978,
  p. 12.
"U.S. Senate, Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation,
  Hearings on Radiation Health and Safety, First Session on
  Oversight of Radiation Health and Safety, 95th Congress, June 16,
  17, 27, 28 and 29, 1977, Serial No. 95-49.  Washington, D.C., U.S.
  Government Printing Office, 1977, pp. 210 and 219.
""Janes, D.E., "Radiofrequency Environments in the United States,"
  ICC 1979 Conference Record, Vol. II, Paper 31.4, IEEE Publication
  No. 79CH1435-7, New York, 1979.

                                691

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                             TABLE 12-11
                AMBIENT NONIONIZING RADIATION LEVELS
                                                  Power Density
             Location     	                         (mW/cm2)
Empire State Building, New York City3
   86th Floor Observatory                             0.015
  102nd Floor Observatory                             0.031

Milam Building, Houston, Texasa
   47th Floor                                         0.036

Home Tower, San Diego, California3
   Roof                                               0.180

Broadcast Hill, Washington, D.C.b
  (Fessenden Street, NW)                              0.003

Microwave Oven (less than 1 year old)                 1.000

Traffic Radar (30 meters from driver)c                0.0003
Sources:  a) Tell, R.A. and N.N.  Hankin,  Measurements  of Radio-
          frequency Field Intensity in Buildings  With  Close Proximity
          to Broadcast Stations,  EPA Publication  ORP/EAD 78-3,  Las
          Vegas, Nevada, August 1978;  b)  Athey, T.W. et  al., Radio-
          frequency Radiation Levels and  Population Exposures in
          Urban Areas of the Eastern United States:  Technical
          Report, EPA-520/2-77-008, Silver Spring,  Maryland, May
          1978; and c) Janes, D.E. , The EPA Environmental Radio-
          frequency Program:  Present Status and  Environmental
          Findings, presented at  1978 Joint Meeting of the Aerospace
          and Flight Test Radio Coordinating Council and the
          Frequency Managers Group, Range Commanders Council,
          Arlington, Virginia, October 14, 1978.
                                  692

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Assessment  of  all  the  implications  and  impacts  is  needed  to  assure
the  safe  application and use  of nonionizing radiation.

      Other  Environmental Impacts

      Increased nonionizing radiation could have  impacts on entire
ecosystems.  It has been suggested  that bird migration could be  dis-
rupted; there  is some  evidence that birds are sensitive to electro-
magnetic  radiation and  that,  in its presence, they alter  their flight
paths.  Worldwide, low-frequency communication  systems and the pro-
jected solar satellite  power  system are two specific  sources of  con-
cern.  Even though the  impact of these  sources  is  presently difficult
to assess,  they will expose one or more ecosystems to continuous and
widespread nonionizing  radiation.
                             TABLE 12-12
          POPULATION EXPOSURES TO RADIOFREQUENCY/RADIATION
   Power Density
     (mW/cm2)
 Cumulative  Percentage of U.S.  Population
   Exposed to Radio frequency Radiation
	Greater than Level  Specified	
10.       (U.S. occupational standard)

 1.0      (U.S. standard for microwave oven
           at 5 cm distance)
0.01 (U.S.S.R. occupational standard)
0.001 (U.S.S.R. public standard)
0.0005
0.0002
0.0001
0.00005
0.00001
0.000005
—
0.5
1.0
2.5'
5.0
8.0
31.0
51.0
Source:  Tell, R.A. and E.D. Mantiply, Population Exposure to VHF
         and UHF Broadcast Radiation in the United States, EPA
         Publication ORP/EAD 78-5,  Las Vegas, Nevada, June 1978.
                                '693

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                            CHAPTER 13
                                NOISE
                      HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 13

o  Noise-induced hearing loss, the nation's most prevalent occupa-
   tionally induced disease, affects millions of persons presently
   working in manufacturing and construction occupations.

o  Community noise levels are rising; millions of Americans are now
   subjected to daily noise levels beyond those deemed consistent
   with protection of the public health and welfare.

o  Nonauditory health effects of noise, a problem for the general
   public, are not yet well understood.  Within the general popula-
   tion, certain subgroups such as young children and older adults
   may be particularly susceptible.

13.1  INTRODUCTION

     Noise is generally defined as unwanted sound.  Throughout
history, people have viewed noise as an annoyance or a nuisance and
have made innumerable attempts to abate or control it, usually by
prohibiting certain activities at various locations in the community
or during certain times of the day or night.  Recently, noise has
been recognized as being an environmental pollutant having serious
auditory and nonauditory health effects.  Some of these health
effects are just beginning to be identified and understood.

     The following discussion of the noise pollution problem iden-
tifies its scope; highlights regulatory efforts at Federal, state,
and local government levels; notes possible trends in noise exposure
levels to the year 2000; and develops issues which appear to warrant
further consideration.

13.1.1  Problem Identification

     As a pervasive element in the urban environment, noise, both in
the workplace and community, constitutes a recognized hazard to hear-
ing and is a potential hazard to the health of other bodily systems.
Noise affects our ability to function at school, at work, at home,
and in the social environment.
                                  695

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     Noise-induced hearing loss has been established as the nation's
most prevalent occupationally induced disease.    Estimates suggest
that as many as 15 million production workers in manufacturing and
utilities are subject to levels capable of causing noise-induced
hearing impairment over their adult working lifetimes.  This impair-
ment is due to daily exposure to A-weighted equivalent sound lev-
els2 of 75 decibels (dB) or more.3

     Nonoccupational or community noise poses an additional threat
to the public health.  Some studies suggest that the average person
in a non-industrial job over the course of a week may have a 7—day
average Leq (24)^ of about 75 dB.   In comparison, an Leq (24) of
70 dB has been identified as the maximum noise level consistent with
full protection of hearing, allowing for an adequate margin of
safety.°
1-U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Interagency Noise
 Effects Research Panel, Federal Noise Research in Noise Effects,
 EPA 550/9-78-102, Washington, D.C., February 1978.
2The A-weighted sound level is one of several different scales of
 sound measurement which accounts for or weights frequencies with
 respect to the different frequency sensitivies of the ear at low
 levels.  A-weighted sound levels are expressed in decibels on a
 logarithmic scale where the level of sound pressure is measured
 against a standard reference value of 0.0002 bars.
 Bolt, Beranek, and Newman, Inc.,  Economic Impact Assessment of
 the Proposed Noise Control Regulation,  Report No. 3246, Cambridge,
 Massachusetts, April 21, 1976.
^Leq (24) is a description of sound known as the equivalent sound
 level that in a stated period of time (here 24 hours denoted by
 [24]) would contain the same sound energy as the time-varying sound
 during the same time period.  The Leq measure incorporates the
 A-weighting system.
^Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Johnson of the Aerospace Medical
 Research Laboratory, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, in a speech
 to the North Carolina Chapter of the Acoustical Society of America,
 November 10, 1978.  Also, Shori, T.R. and E.A. McGatha, A Real-World
 Assessment of Noise Exposure, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
 Washington, D.C. 1978.
^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement
 and Control, Information on Levels of Environmental Noise Requisite
 to Protect Public Health and Welfare with an Adequate Margin of
 Safety, Pub. No. 550/9-74-004, Washington, D.C., March 1974.  Expo-
 sure for a 40 year period to an L    (24) of 71.4 dB would produce
 a minimal hearing loss  (less than 5dB at 4,000 Hz) for 96 percent
 of the population.  This exposure level has been reduced by 1.4 dB
 in establishing a protective exposure level of 70 dB thus providing
 a margin of safety.

                                  696

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     Exposure to high noise levels is known to cause hearing impair-
ment; in addition, continuing research into the nonauditory effects
of noise has produced a growing body of evidence that links noise
either directly or indirectly to heart disease problems, diseases
associated with stress, and mental illness.  Exposure to extremely
intense sound can cause loss of balance and dizziness due to malfunc-
tions of the inner ear, and workers in intensely noisy places  have
been found to lose their peripheral vision and develop cardiovascular
irregularities.'  Levels producing these effects, however, rarely
occur in the general environment.  Noise also interferes with the
quantity and quality of sleep, which in turn affects the indivi-
dual's feelings of well-being and, over an extended period of time,
may affect mental and physical health."

     Noise has also been shown to have other detrimental effects upon
the public health and welfare.  Children exposed to daily noisy envi-
ronments may experience difficulty with language development, reading
ability, and their general performance in school.^  Adults sub-
jected to loud or intermittent noise in the workplace may find their
work efficiency hampered.1"  In the community, excessive noise
interferes with conversation and social interaction.

13.1.2  Regulatory Background and Research

     Noise abatement and control activities occur at the Federal,
state, and local levels of government.  Generally, the Federal role
includes identifying noise exposure levels necessary to protect the
public health and welfare, regulating noise emissions from newly
manufactured products and activities, enforcing regulations, and
providing research and technical assistance.  The state and local
government roles include regulating noise emissions from products and
activities, and to the extent that this role has not already been
  Cohan, A., "Extraauditory Effects," in Handbook of Physiology
  Vol. 9;  Reaction to Environmental Agents.
 °U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement
  and Control, Information on Levels of Environmental Noise Requisite
  to Protect Public Health and Welfare with an Adequate Margin of
  Safety.  Publication number 550/9-74-004, Washington, D.C., March
  1974.
 ^Millis, J.H.  "Noise and Children - A Review of the Literature"
  Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, Vol 56, p. 767-779,
  March 1974.
10National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Criteria
  for a Recommended Standard;  Occupational Exposure to Noise, Pub.
  No. PB-213 463, Rockville, Maryland, 1972.
                                  697

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preempted at the Federal level, regulating emissions from newly manu-
factured products.

     Federal Regulation and Research

     The Noise Pollution and Abatement Act of 1970 (PL 91-604) was
the first legislation to provide a central focus for overall environ-
mental noise abatement at the Federal level.^  This Act estab-
lished the Office of Noise Abatement and Control for the purpose of
conducting a full and complete investigation of noise and its effects
on public health and welfare.  Information gathered in this investi-
gation provided a basis for the first national noise control legisla-
tion, the Noise Control Act of 1972 (PL 92-574).

     Before enactment of the 1970 legislation, Federal statutes had
been directed toward noise abatement for specific sources, such as
aircraft noise under the 1968 Amendments to the Federal Aviation Act
of 1958 (PL 90-411) or in regard to special environmental situa-
tions, such as occupational exposure under the Walsh-Healey Public
Contracts Act.    Under the 1972 legislation, EPA was mandated to:

     o  Develop and publish noise exposure criteria

     o  Identify major sources of noise and regulate these sources

     o  Propose aircraft noise standards to the Federal Aviation
        Administration

     o  Require the labeling of noisy and noise-reducing products

     o  Engage in research, technical assistance, and dissemination
        of public information

     o  Coordinate all Federal noise control efforts.

As EPA acted on this mandate, it became evident that although effec-
tive noise source regulations at the national level were needed,
those regulations would have to be accompanied by effective noise
control programs at the state and local levels.13  Consequently,
U-U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Report to the President and
  Congress on Noise, Pub. No. PB 206-716, Washington, D.C., December
  31, 1971.
12Walsh-Healey Public Contracts Act, 41 U.S.C. 35 et seq.
l-^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement
  and Control, Toward a National Strategy for Noise Control, Washing-
  ton, D.C., April, 1977.

                                 698

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with passage of the Quiet Communities Act of 1978 (PL 95-609), EPA's
role in aiding states and localities in establishing noise control
programs and in providing the public with information on the harmful
effects of noise was greatly expanded.  Specifically, the 1978 legis-
lation mandated the Environmental Protection Agency to fund, through
grants, cooperative agreements, or contracts, the following:

     o  Financial assistance to states and localities for

            - problem identification—noise control capacity
              building
            - transportation noise abatement
            - evaluation and demonstration of noise control
              techniques

     o  Preparation of model state and local legislation

     o  A state and local noise control research and demonstration
        program

     o  Establishment of regional technical assistance centers

     o  Provision of assistance in staffing and training for state
        and local programs

     o  A national environmental noise assessment

     o  Increased noise research, especially in the area of non-
        auditory effects.

     In keeping with the mandates in the 1972 and 1978 legislation,
EPA has identified major noise sources and is now developing noise
emission standards for several noise-producing products.  Final regu-
lations have been issued on newly manufactured portable air compres-
sors^^ and on medium- and heavy-duty trucks, ^ and garbage
trucks.1"  Proposed regulations have been issued for new wheel and
•*• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Noise Emission Standards
  for Portable Air Compressors, 40 CFR, Part 204, 41 FR 2162, January
  14, 1976 as amended.
l-'U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Noise Emission Standards
  for Medium and Heavy Trucks, 40 CFR, Part 205, Subparts A and B,
  41 FR 15538, April 13, 1976, as amended.
*"U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Noise Emission Standards
  for Truck Mounted Solid Waste Compactors, 44 FR 56524, October 1,
  1979.
                                 699

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                 17           18
crawler tractors,   new buses.10 new motorcycles and motorcycle
replacement exhaust systems, " with other product regulations still
in the development stage.  In addition, EPA has promulgated noise
emission standards for in-use railroad equipment and motor carriers
(over 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight) operating in interstate
commerce.

     The Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970, amended in 1974
(PL 93-237) also has a bearing on noise exposure.  This legislation
applies the noise exposure standards promulgated under the Walsh-
Healey Act and the Service Control Act of 1965 to all businesses
engaged in interstate commerce.  A standard of 90 decibels for an
eight-hour day is now being enforced.

     Various Federal agencies, including the Department of Transpor-
tation (DOT), Department of Defense (DOD), and Department of Housing
and Urban Development (HUD), have adopted noise abatement and control
policies consistent with the legislation discussed in this section.
Within DOT, the Federal Highway Administration has sought to control
noise exposure by incorporating noise considerations in highway
location and design decisions, although noise control is only one
factor and may be outweighed by other considerations.

     Another DOT agency, the Federal Aviation Administration, has
policies in effect to reduce aviation noise by: source noise reduc-
tion through aircraft retrofit/replacement; modifications in take-
off and landing procedures; and development plans for airport noise
control and land use compatibility controls.  These last measures
regarding land use have the objective of containing severe noise
impacts within airport-controlled areas through purchase of land,
purchase of easements for development rights, changes in land use
1 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Proposed Noise Emission
  Standards for New Wheel and Crawler Tractors,  42 FR 35804, July 11,
  1977.
l^u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Proposed Noise Emission
  Standards for Buses, 42 FR 45776, September 12, 1977.
l^u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Proposed Noise Emission
  Standards for Motorcycle and Motorcycle Replacement Exhaust Sys-
  tems , 43 FR 10822, March 15, 1978.
^ U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Railroad Noise Emission
  Standards, 41 FR 2184, Jan. 14, 1976; Noise Emission Standards for
  Transportation Equipment; Interstate Rail Carriers, 45 FR 1252,
  January 4, 1980; Noise Emission Standards for Interstate Motor
  Carriers, 39 FR 38208, Oct. 29, 1974.
                                 700

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from noise-sensitive to noise-tolerant uses, and prevention of new
incompatible uses. 1

     DOD, under its Air Installations Compatible Use Zones (AICUZ)
program, has adopted a similar approach for dealing with military
aircraft noise.  However, the principal tool of this program has been
technical assistance to communities in preparing and enacting land
use planning controls to ensure that local development will be com-
patible with the noise levels and accident threat generated by an
airfield.  DOD has also adopted a more stringent occupational noise
exposure standard (i.e., 85 dB over a period of 8 hours:  Leq (8)
= 85 dB) than that currently in force under the Occupational Safety
and Health Act (i.e. , Daily Noise Dose equivalent to 90 dB over a
period of 8 hours).

     HUD's noise policy restricts assistance to housing developments
that meet a series of internal and external noise standards.  How-
ever, the overall effectiveness of this policy is limited since HUD
mortgage guarantees and assistance apply to only 5 to 10 percent of
the national housing market.

     Prior to the passage of the Noise Control Act of 1972, indi-
vidual Federal agencies had ongoing research, development and demon-
stration activities related to noise abatement and control.  These
activities were, and largely continue to be, oriented toward satis-
fying each agency's statutory mandates and needs, operational author-
ities, goals and objectives.  Independent efforts have been carried
out in the areas of aviation and surface transportation noise,
machinery and construction equipment noise, community exposure and
noise effects.

     Recently, EPA's Office of Noise Abatement and Control has
developed a five-year noise effects research plan.  Research priority
areas within the plan include:

     o  Nonauditory physiological effects especially related to
        stress diseases

     o  Sleep disturbance

     o  Noise induced hearing loss

     o  Behavioral, social and performance effects
7 1
•'••'•U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Adminis-
  tration, Airport-Land Use Compatibility Planning, Pub. No.
  AC/150/5050-6, Washington, D.C., 1977.

                                  701

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     o  Communications interference

     o  The effects of noise on wildlife and other animals

In the past, noise research has centered upon noise induced hearing
loss.  With adoption of this five year plan, EPA will place more
emphasis on research where the consequences of noise exposure are
less understood.

     State and Local Regulation

     By 1978, approximately 40 states and 1,200 municipalities had
adopted some form of noise control legislation.  At the state level,
statutes generally regulate noise from airport operations and from
motor vehicles and, to a lesser extent, from snowmobiles and motor-
boats.  States also regulate occupational noise through enforcement
of standards included in the Occupational Safety and Health Act.
Other areas covered by state regulations include construction site
noise, acoustical treatment of buildings, and, to a very limited
extent, industrial and commercial noise emission levels.

     Municipal regulation of transportation and occupational noise,
as well as acoustical treatment of buildings, is comparable to that
found at the state level.  However, industrial, commercial, construc-
tion, and domestic (i.e., household) noises are much more heavily
regulated at the local level through nuisance ordinances and zoning
restrictions, which apply not only to sound emission levels but also
to hours of operation.

     Although it appears that state and local regulation is exten-
sive, in many instances noise control ordinances are not actively
enforced.  However, where they are enforced by well trained personnel
the ordinances can be quite effective.  Under the Quiet Community Act
Amendments of 1978, EPA is helping a number of communities initiate
and strengthen noise control programs.

13.2  IMPACTS AND TRENDS

13.2.1  Noise Sources and Existing Levels

     Noise sources are to be found everywhere in our environment.
For discussion purposes, environmental noise can be classified as
transportation noise, occupational or industrial noise, and community
and household background noise.

     The two significant sources of transportation noise are air
traffic and surface traffic.  Present estimates are that more than
5 million people living in the vicinity of our nation's airports are

                                 702

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subjected to noise levels of L^n - 65 dB or more.22  Noise expo-
sure at this level is significant in that it exceeds the L(jn 55
level identified by EPA as being protective of the public health and
welfare with an adequate margin of safety.^  Surface traffic
noise, generated primarily by automobiles and trucks, ranges from 70
to 95 dB when measured at a distance of 50 feet.  Surface traffic is
highly pervasive in the urban environment and is continually identi-
fied as the most frequently annoying. ^

     Occupational noise from machine operations and constrncHnn
activities is generally the most intense.  Typical machine noise
levels, by industry, are included in Table 13-1, while 1976 estimates
of the numbers of workers exposed to noise levels of 85 dB and above
are provided in Table 13-2.

     Annoying noise sources in the community and home include trans-
portation noise, domestic noise from operation of home and garden
appliances, and noise from commercial and industrial activities.
Typical maximum and minimum daily noise levels in city and suburban
locations are presented in Table 13-3, and estimated percentages of
the urban population exposed to various day-night noise levels are
presented in Table 13-4.  The data in Table 13-4 indicate more than
50 percent of the urban population, or 93 million people, are subject
to day-night noise levels of general urban noise that exceed the
Ldn 55 protective level established by EPA.  (Table 13-4 does not
include persons whose residences are located close to primary noise
sources such as airports, highways or construction sites.)
      Day-Night Sound Level, designated L^, is the A-weighted
  equivalent sound level for a 24-hour period with an additional
  10 dB weighting imposed on the equivalent sound levels (Le )
  occurring during nighttime hours, 10 p.m. to 7 a.m.  See Wyle
  Laboratories, Noise Exposure of Civil Aircarrier Airplanes Through
  the Year 2000.  Vol. 1;  Methods, Procedures, Results, Pub. No.
  550/9-79-313-1, Washington B.C., EPA Office of Noise Abatement and
  Control, February 1979.
2-*U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement
  and Control,  Information on Levels of Environmental Noise Requisite
  to Protect Public Health and Welfare with an Adequate Marginal
  Safety, Pub.  No. 550/9-74-004, Washington, D.C., March 1974.
2^Kaiser, E.J.  et al., Promoting Environmental Quality Through
  Urban Planning and Controls, Pub. No. EPA 600/5-73-015,  Washington,
  D.C., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, February 1974.
                                703

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                                  TABLE 13-1
                    SUMMARY  OF MACHINE NOISE  BY INDUSTRY
Number of
SIC
Code
16
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
49

aSPL
Number of
Machine Types Machine Types
Industry Identified With SPL Data
Construction
Food and Kindred Products
Tobacco Manufacturers
Textile Mill Products
Apparel and Related Products
Lumber and Wood Products
Furniture and Fixtures
Paper and Allied Products
Printing, Publishing, and Allied Products
Chemical and Allied Products
Petroleum and Coal Products
Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastic Products
Leather and Leather Goods
Stone, Clay, and Glass Products
Primary Metal Industries
Fabricated Metal Products
Machinery Except Electric
Electrical and Electronic Machinery
Transportation Equipment
Utilities

(Sound Pressure Level) adjusted from 50 feet to 3 feet.
Srmrrp: Bercmann. E.P.. Severe Sources of Industrial Machinery
36
42
6
15

15

21
22
15
29

10
12
38
41
21
13
13
8
357

Noises,
19
18
0
10
Included in SIC 22
11
Included in SIC 24
9
11
15
7
Included in SIC 28
10
12
38
27
17
12
12
8
236

LIT Research Institute,
r n /\ i O *•» 'i /. f"U -t ~ f, n n
Mean SPL
for Machine
Types, dBA
85 (109a)
94
N.A.
93

96

91
90
88
99

85
91
98
99
101
99
99
95



Illinois, 1974.

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                                 TABLE  13-2
       ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER  AND PERCENTAGE OF PRODUCTION
                     WORKERS OVEREXPOSED TO NOISE
Industry
Food
Tobacco
Textiles
Apparel
Lumber and wood
Furniture and
  fixtures
Paper
Printing and
  Publishing
Chemicals
Petroleum and
  Coal
Rubber and
  plastics
Leather
Stone, clay,
  and glass
Primary Metals
  Primary steel

  Foundries

  Primary
  nonferrous
Fabricated
 metals
Machinery except
  electrical
Electrical
  Machinery
Transportation
  equipment
Utilities

Total
   Total Average
SIC Code
Code

   20
   21
   22
   23
   24

   25
   26

   27
   28

   29

   30
   31

   32
   33
  331
  332
  336
  333,
  334,
  335

   34

   35

   36

   37
   49
Production
 workers
(Thousands)

   1170
     63
    900
   1174
    542

    427
    557

    661
    596

    117

    531
    256

    555
    989
    485

    275

    233
   1123

   1366

   1370

   1354
    627

 14,382
                                                  Overexposed
                                                    Workers
                                                  (Thousands)
85 dBA   90  dBA
  820
   48
  855
   12
  542

  235
  395

  132
  137

   58

   266
     3

   416
   577
   325

   189

    63
   786

   956

   959

   880
   445
350
 40
765
  0
390

 58
206

 99
 66

 23

106
  0

139
259
170

 54

 35
225

273

274

284
188
                                 8,524  3,755
                                                      Percentage
                                                      Overexposed
                    85 dBA   90 dBA
 70
 76
 95
  1
100

 55
 71

 20
 23

 50

 50
  1

 75
 58
 67

 70

 27
 70

 70

 70

 65
 71


 59.3
30
63
85
 0
72

15
37

15
11

20

20
 0

25
26
35

20

15
20

20

20

21
30


26.1
Note:   The majority  of  these estimates are the result  of  informal discussions with
       industry spokesmen who were willing to discuss  the subject.  There is very
       little definitive information available therefore, these estimates should
       be viewed as  best guesses.  U.S. Department of  Labor,  Bureau of Labor
       Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Vol.  20,  No.  2, August  1973.

       Source:   Bolt, Beranek and Newman, Inc.,  Impact of Noise Control at the Workplace,
                Report  No.  2671, Cambridge, Mass., January 1974, p. C-2.  Used with
                permission.
                                         705

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                                              TABLE 13-3
       COMPARISON OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME  AND MINIMUM NIGHTTIME HOURLY OUTDOOR NOISE LEVELS IN CITY
                              AND IN  DETACHED HOUSING RESIDENTIAL AREAS
                                                                                 Difference Between
                                                                                    Day and Night

General Category


Range
(dBA)
Maximum Daytime
Hour 0700 - 1900
Arithmetic Standard
Mean Deviation
(dBA) (dB)
Minimum Nighttime Standard
Hour 2200 - 0700 Deviation

Range
(dBA)
Residual Noise Level
City
(4 Locations)
Suburban and Urban
Detached Housing
Residential
(11 Locations)

City
(4 Locations)
62 to
79
42 to
56



66 to
83
71 6.9
49 4.3



Median Noise
76 7.2
47 to
59
27 to
42


Level
51 to
70
Arithmetic
Mean
(dBA)
(L90)
56
36



(L50)
62
Standard Mean of
Deviation Difference Difference
(dB) (dB) (dB)

5.6 15 2.7
5.5 13 4.4




7.1 14 4.0
Suburban and Urban  46 to
Detached Housing    61
Residential
(11 Locations) •
55
4.1      31 to      39
         46
5.3
16
4.0
Source:  Wyle Laboratories,  Community Noise,  Pub.  No.  NIID 300.3,  prepared for and published by EPA
         Office of Noise Abatement and Control,  Washington,  D.C.,  1971.

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                                   TABLE 13-4
              ESTIMATED PERCENTAGE OF URBAN POPULATION RESIDING IN
       AREAS WITH VARIOUS DAY-NIGHT NOISE LEVELS TOGETHER WITH CUSTOMARY
                      QUALITATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE AREAa
Description
Quiet suburban residential
Normal suburban residential
Urban residential
Noisy urban residential
Very noisy urban residential
Typical
Range of
Ldn« dB
48-53
53-58
58-63
63-68
68-73
Average
Ldn> dB
50
55
60
65
70
Estimated
Percentage
of Urban
Population
12
21
28
19
7
Average Census
Tract Population
Density, No.
of people/mi
630
2,000
6,300
20,000
63,000
aThese values do not reflect exposure to aircraft and highway noise.

Source:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement and
         Control, Population Distribution of the United States as a Function
         of Outdoor Noise Levels, Pub. No. SSS/9-74 009 A&B, Washington, D.C.,
         June 1974.
                                      707

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13.2.2  Trends in Noise Exposure Levels

     The data presented in the preceding sections imply that a sub-
stantial portion of the nation's population is regularly subjected
to noise levels potentially damaging to the public health and wel-
fare.  Assuming continued population and economic growth, the number
of noise generating activities will also increase.  However, with
adequate regulation and improved noise control technologies, such
increases need not translate into higher noise levels.

     In the area of transportation, perhaps the greatest potential
for realizing noise reduction lies in decreasing aircraft-related
noise.  Annual commercial jet aircraft operations (take-offs or
landings) at the nation's airports are projected to rise from 8.3
million in 1975 to 21.5 million in 2000, an increase of 160 per-
     9 S
cent. J  Over the same time period, the numbers of people exposed
to day-night (L(jn) noise levels of 65 dB or more are expected to
decrease, as noted in Table 13-5.  The decreases noted in Table 13-5
are contingent upon full compliance with present aircraft noise cer-
tification rules   and those proposed by the Environmental
Protection Agency for 1980 and 1985.

     In surface transportation, automobile and truck traffic, total
annual vehicle miles of automobile and truck travel are expected to
increase from a 1975 level of 2.3 x 1012 miles to 3.2 x 10*2
miles under the Low Growth Scenario and to 5.1 x 10   miles under
the High Growth Scenario for the year 2000, representing increases of
39 percent and 122 percent, respectively.  These estimates do not re-
flect possible changes resulting from an increasing scarcity of gaso-
line.  While changes in noise levels cannot be estimated directly, it
can be stated generally that there is an increase in roadway noise of
3 dB with each doubling in traffic volume.2'  EPA noise regulations
regarding new medium- and heavy-duty trucks and expected reductions
in tire noise should offset these anticipated increases in roadway
noise to some degree.
2->Wyle Laboratories, Noise Exposure of Civil Aircarrier Airplanes
  Through the Year 2000.  Vol. 1;  Methods, Procedures, Results,
  Pub. No. 550/9-79-313-1, EPA Office of Noise Abatement and Contro1,
  Washington D.C., February 1979.
2%ederal Aviation Administration, Noise Standards, 14 C.F.R., Part
  36, January 1969.
2'Institute of Transportation Engineers, Transportation and Traffic
  Engineering Handbook, Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, New
  Jersey, 1976.
                                708

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                                    TABLE 13-5
          SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED REDUCTION IN NOISE EXPOSURE FROM AIRCRAFT
             WITHIN Ldn 65 dB CONTOUR BY YEAR 2000 AS A FUNCTION OF
                             APPLIED TECHNOLOGY LEVEL
Year
1975
2000
2000
Technology
Level
Base
1
2
Certification
Rule
1969 FAR Part 36
1975 FAR Part 36a
1980 Proposed
2000
2000
3AC
EPA Rule

1985 Proposed
EPA Rule

1985 Proposed
EPA Rule
                                              Exposure Within L(jn65 Contour
                                           	Area	Population	

                                            Mi2   Percent  106 People  Percent

                                           2,169    100       6.17       100

                                           1,304     60       3.58        58

                                           1,200     55       3.11        50
                                1,157
626
         53
29
         2.95
0.92
            48
15
aStage 3 in FAR Part 36 Terminology.
^All aircraft assumed to comply with noise levels specified by
 the 1985 Proposed Rule.

Source:  Wyle Laboratories, Noise Exposure of Civil Aircarriers
         Airplanes Through the Year 2000.  Vol. 1, Methods, Pro-
         cedures, Results, Pub. No. 550/9-79-313-1, prepared for and
         published by EPA Office of Noise Abatement and Control,
         Washington, D.C., February 1979.
                                   709

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     During the next 20 years, some of the factors influencing noise
levels in the workplace are expected to change.  These factors in-
clude new industrial technologies and work practices, fuller com-
pliance with current OSHA noise exposure standards, and possible
adoption of more stringent standards.  The effect that each of these
changes could have on industrial noise levels cannot be predicted at
present.  Thus, while it is estimated that the number of industrial
workers will double between 1975 and 2000 to roughly 25 million,28
the number of overexposed workers cannot be determined.

     More that 100 million people in the United States are exposed on
any one day to noise levels greater than Ldn 55 from construction
noise.  There are more than 2.4 million active construction sites
including residential, mixed residential/commercial, industrial, and
public works projects.  This number does not include active highway
and street construction sites which would add many thousands more
sites.  Although the number of construction sites will vary from year
to year between now and the year 2000 because of the construction in-
dustry's sensitivity to national economic conditions, a significant
upward trend in construction sites is not anticipated nor are signif-
icant shifts anticipated in population density near construction
sites.  However, a continuing transition is occurring from small size
equipment to larger, more powerful units in an effort to increase
productivity and decrease overall construction costs.  This trend
brings with it higher noise levels and attendant increases in the
severity and extensiveness of construction site noise impacts.  How-
ever, existing and proposed EPA regulations for trucks and construc-
tion equipment would have a moderating influence on these increases.

     With projected growth of transportation and other noise sources,
community background noise levels could rise.  This indeed would be
the case where land use changes did occur, such as from rural to
suburban.  Under such changes, ambient noise levels could increase by
10 dB or more to approximately the levels noted in Table 13-4.  Using
the 1972 OBERS (Series E) population projections, approximately 196
million people living in the nation's standard metropolitan statisti-
cal areas in 2000 would be subject to these levels.  However, where
no appreciable land use changes occurred, noise levels would most
likely remain the
28U.S. Water Resources Council, 1972 OBERS Projections of Economic
  Activity in the U.S.;  Vol. 4, States, Washington, B.C., April
  1974.
29Wyle Laboratories, Community Noise, Pub. No. NTID 300.3, EPA Of-
  fice of Noise Abatement and Control, Washington, B.C., December
  31,  1971.
                                710

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 13.3  ISSUES AND IMPLICATIONS

 13.3.1  Noise-Induced Hearing Loss

     Over 15 million Americans are exposed to levels of noise in the
workplace capable of causing hearing loss (i.e., Leq(8) = 75 dB),
 the nation's most prevalent occupationally induced disease.  Under
 the current OSHA and Department of Labor 8-hour noise exposure stan-
 dard of 90 dB, as many as 25 percent of the exposed population re-
 ceive the lower limit of a daily dose sufficient to produce socially
handicapping loss of hearing.

     In 1972, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and
Health recommended that the 8-hour standard of 90 A-weighted decibels
 be reduced to 85 decibels.^0  when the Occupational Health and
 Safety Administration indicated that it intended to repromulgate a 90
 decibel standard, EPA challenged.  This OSHA action and an extensive
set of hearings on the need for an 85 decibel standard and its actual
 feasibility followed.  No final decision on the standard has been
reached.  Consequently, the 8-hour exposure standard remains at 90
dB.  Thus, 25 percent of the exposed population could be subject to
handicapping loss of hearing, while under the 85-dB noise standard,
 this percentage would be reduced to 12 percent.  However, the eco-
nomic and technological feasibility of this 5-dB reduction remains
unsettled.

     One notable exception to the Federal standard of 90 decibels is
an action by the Department of Defense. In 1978, DOD issued Instruc-
tion Number 6055.3 establishing a uniform hearing conservation pro-
gram with the goal of eliminating all occupational noise-related
hearing loss among defense personnel.  The 85 dB exposure limit has
been set as the goal of this program.

     Outside the workplace, noise levels are also high; taking into
account daily exposure from all sources, the average American in a
relatively quiet job may be subject to a 7-day average L  (24) of
75 dB.  This exposure level is 5 dB higher than the 24-hour yearly
hearing protective level of 70 dB and approaches L Q(24) = 77 dB,
at which only 50 percent of the population would be protected.-*1
-^National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health,  Criteria
  for a Recommended Standard, Occupational Exposure to Noise, Pub.
  No. 213-463, Rockville, Maryland, 1972.
•^U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement
  and Control, Protective Noise Levels, Condensed Version of EPA
  Levels Document, Pub. No. EPA 550/9-79-100, Washington, D.C.,
  November 1979.

                                 711

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Persons who work in noisier environments will experience 24-hour
exposures in excess of this level.

13.3.2  Other Effects

     Considerable research has been done on nonauditory health ef-
fects of noise; however, to date, no human illness other than hear-
ing loss is known to be directly caused by noise.32  Nevertheless,
studies consistently and clearly associate noise with physiological
and psychological stress diseases such as heart disease and high
blood pressure.  Noise interferes with aural communications on the
job, in schools, in the home and elsewhere.  It may affect children's
ability to learn and adults' work efficiency.  It can disrupt sleep
and possibly degrade health and performance generally.

     Biomedical and behavioral research has identified some health
hazards stemming from noise; still, some specific links have yet to
be established, and thus the question of what levels of noise produce
specific health effects has not been answered.  For example, sub-
groups in the general population may be particularly sensitive to
noise effects.   Among these possibly susceptible groups are the
elderly, unborn children in various stages of fetal development,
young children, persons already ill or at risk due to other causes,
and mentally and emotionally ill persons.

13.3.3  Noise Control Regulation

     Effective  noise abatement and control involves Federal, state,
and local government levels.  The Federal government can sponsor
research and develop regulations governing products and activities,
but successful  noise control also requires state and local action in
adopting and enforcing effective noise ordinances.  Land use planning
is also important.   Many past efforts at noise control by state and
local governments have been directed at nuisance abatement, but an
increasing number have enacted numeric standards to control products
and facilities  in use.  As  knowledge of the importance of noise as a
pollutant and the means to  control it are communicated to communities
and as new communities enact ordinances fortified by the Quiet
Communities  Act of  1978,  we can expect state and local efforts to
curb the rise in noise levels  to become increasingly effective.
32u.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Noise Abatement
  and Control, Noise:  A Health Problem, Washington,  B.C.,  August
  1978.
                                 712

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                            CHAPTER 14
               ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
                      HIGHLIGHTS OF CHAPTER 14

o  Under high economic growth conditions,  four major energy-related
   problems would be expected by the year  2000:

   - Continued high levels of sulfur oxide emissions
   - Substantial growth in nitrogen oxide  emission levels
   - Large increases in solid waste generation
   - Impacts associated with synthetic fuel production

o  Projected increases in the use of coal  by utilities and  indus-
   tries by 2000 largely account for the sulfur oxide and nitrogen
   oxide projections, and they substantially contribute to  the
   anticipated increase in solid waste.

o  The production and use of synthetic fuels from oil shale are  pro-
   jected to be major sources of solid waste by 2000.   The  probable
   concentration of these industries in the Mountain Region (Federal
   Region VIII) would place a heavy environmental burden on this
   area, much of which is now relatively pristine.

o  With slower economic growth, all of the major environmental prob-
   lems identified with high growth would  be expected to occur,  but
   to a lesser degree.

o  Conservation of energy and increased use of solar energy technolo-
   gies could significantly mitigate the energy-related environmental
   consequences of high economic growth, particularly if these mea-
   sures reduced the demand for coal and synthetic fuels.

14.1  INTRODUCTION

     In the preceding chapters, energy has been identified  as one,
often major, source of environmental pollutants.  The relationship
between energy and environmental quality is both direct and intimate;
therefore, our energy future will significantly affect our  environ-
mental future.  The purpose of this chapter is to summarize selected
environmental consequences of several alternative energy futures.

     We focused generally on those energy  impacts that are  most  in-
fluenced by different assumptions about future energy supply, con-
version, and demand in the future.  Several important consequences
of energy production - oil spills, nuclear wastes and pipeline rup-
tures - are not discussed because of their relative insensitivity to

                                  713

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alternative energy futures.  The discussion begins with the environ-
mental consequences associated with the rather conventional energy
futures implied by the High Growth and Low Growth scenario assump-
tions described in Chapter 2.

14.1.1  Scenario Assumptions*-

     Recent experience has clearly shown how hard it is to predict
future patterns of energy production and consumption.  Projections
of energy production in 2000 made during the past decade have ranged
from under 100 quads to almost 200 quads.  Figure 14-1 presents a
number of different projections made in the 1970s.  The figure sug-
gests the need to be humble about our forecasting efforts, and
underlines the wisdom of using several different scenarios to
represent a variety of possible energy futures.

     Briefly, the High Growth and Low Growth scenarios assume that
total energy supply would expand at an average 2.1 percent per year
under the High Growth, and at 1.5 percent per year in the Low Growth
Scenario.  In both, most of this growth would result from burning
more coal, increasing nuclear-powered electricity generation, and
recovering oil from Western oil shales.  Table 14-1 summarizes SEAS
scenarios assumptions for energy supply.

     Under High Growth Scenario assumptions, use of coal is projected
to rise from 22 percent of the total 1975 energy supply to 35 percent
in 2000.  A slower rate of increase in coal use is assumed in the Low
Growth Scenario, in which coal would provide about 30 percent of the
energy supply by 2000.

     Nuclear energy production would grow by a factor of 7 in the
High Growth Scenario, and 6 in the Low Growth Scenario.  These pro-
jected sharp increases are consistent with actual growth in nuclear
production since 1975, but, in the aftermath of the Three-Mile Island
accident, may be too high (see Appendix B).
     purpose of these scenarios is to frame the analysis, not to
 predict the future.  For purposes of this analysis, the energy mix
 in the SEAS analysis is assumed.  The distinction between what is
 assumed in the scenarios (e.g., penetration of alternative technol-
 ogies) and what is projected based on these assumptions (e.g. , re-
 sulting levels of conventional fuels production) is difficult to
 sort out.  In this report we assume levels of energy production
 and project residuals generation associated with these levels of
 production.
 These projections also appear to be higher, based on the current
 rate of new plant orders over the past three years.

                                 714

-------
  200
  180
  160
  140
 ;120
P.
o.
3 100
w
I
&  80
   60
   40
   20
               Actual
          Source:
   Adapted from Ayres, R. et al.,  "Future Developments
   in Fossil Energy Resources and  Technology, 1980-2000,"
   in National Research Council, Environmental Studies
   Board,  Long-Range Environmental Outlook, Proceedings
   of a Workshop, November 14-16,  1979, National Academy
   of Sciences, Washington, D.C.,  1980, pp. 16-17.
                                       I
                                  I
                        I
    1970
1975
                          1980
1985
1990
                                            1995
2000
                                FIGURE 14-1
           SELECTED FORECASTS OF FUTURE ENERGY PRODUCTION
                                   715

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                                     TABLE 14-1
                              ENERGY SUPPLY ASSUMPTIONS
                                    (1015 Btu)
                                                  Supply in 2000
Energy Supply
Coal Production
Strip mining
Underground mining
Total coal3
Oil Production
Onshore
Offshore
Oil shale
Alaskan
Total
(Oil imports)
Total domestic
Natural Gas Production
Onshore
Offshore
Alaskan
Biomass
Total
(Gas imports)
Total domestic3
Nuclearb
Hydroelectric
Other0
Energy Supply Total3
1975 Supply

8.5
7.6
16.1

17.1
2.8
0.0
0.4
33.0
(12.7)
20.3

14.3
4.1
0.1
0.0
19.5
(1.0)
18.5
1.8
2.6
0.0
73
High Growth

20.7
23.3
44.0

13.4
3.9
5.4
6.2
42.1
(13.2)
28.9

10.8
3.1
2.9
0.05
18.1
(1.2)
16.9
13.2
3.2
3.8
124
Low Growth

17.0
15.7
32.7

13.4
4.0
2.2
6.0
35.0
(9.4)
25.6

12.6
3.2
2.2
0.05
20.8
(2.7)
18.1
10.6
3.2
2.4
105
3Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
''Calculated as electricity demand divided by 0.34,  in order to express energy
 supply on a basis equivalent to fossil fuel supplies.   Actual nuclear output,
 for example, is 0.34 times the listed supply estimates.
cSupply of fossil fuels displaced by solar,  geothermal,  and biomass (electric)
 sources.

                                       716

-------
     Figures on oil imports differ considerably between scenarios.
The high world oil price assumed in the Low Growth Scenario is pro-
jected to stimulate domestic oil production, so that imports of oil
decrease from 12.7 quads3 in 1975 to 9.4 quads in 2000.  Oil prices
are assumed to rise less sharply in the High Growth Scenario; this
lower cost of energy is expected to stimulate the general economy and
lead to increases in consumption of both domestic and imported oil.
Imports in the High Growth Scenario would increase from 12.7 quads in
1975 to 13.2 quads in 2000, while domestic production would rise from
20.3 quads to 28.9 quads (including oil shale).

     New energy technologies play significant roles in both scenar-
ios.  Shale oil production would increase most sharply in the High
Growth Scenario, in response to strong petroleum demand.  This sce-
nario assumes annual production of more than 5 quads of shale oil by
2000, representing the output of about 50 commercial-scale conversion
plants.  Solar, geothermal, and biomass sources would provide about
3 percent of the total energy supply in 2000 in the High Growth Sce-
nario, and about 1 percent in the Low Growth Scenario.

     Energy use by transportation, residential, commercial, indus-
trial, and export activities is diagramed in Figure 14-2.  Overall,
the demand for energy by these activities would rise in the High
Growth Scenario by 70 percent between 1975 and 2000, from about 50
quads to 85 quads per year.  The corresponding increase in the Low
Growth Scenario would be about 33 percent, rising to a demand of 70
quads in 2000.

     The residential and commercial uses of energy are similar in
both scenarios.  The most significant differences between the two
scenarios regarding energy demand occur in the transportation and
industrial fields because conservation potential is greatest in those
activities, and their energy demands are most sensitive to changes in
economic growth.

     In transportation, the demand for energy in 2000 is projected
to be 23 quads in the High Growth Scenario and 16 quads in the Low
Growth Scenario.  This large difference can be attributed to two
factors:  (1) a lower growth rate in gross national product (GNP)
and population in the Low Growth Scenario, which would result in re-
duced demand for transportation; and (2) a shift toward mass transit
     quad = 1 quadrillion Btu; 1 quad is the energy equivalent of
 approximately 170 million barrels of crude oil.
^Some of the implications of an energy "future" that includes more
 energy from solar, higher conservation, and other "soft path"
 sources are discussed in Section 14.3.3.

                                  717

-------
»•
II i
— ^
2000
,^h drouth
2000
Low Growth
2000
1975


Transportation
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Exports
Totalb
15
10 Btu
18
10
7
16
2
53
Percent of
Total
34
19
14
30
3
100
High Growth Scenario
15
10 Btu
23
12
13
35
2
85
Percent of
Total
27
14
15
42
3
100
Low Growth Scenario
. _ Percent of
10 Btu
16
13
11
29
2
70
Total
23
18
15
41
3
100
Includes demand for oil and natural gas as chemical feedstocks.

Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                           FIGURE 14-2
             MAJOR ENERGY DEMAND ASSUMPTIONS

                                718

-------
in urban areas in reaction to high oil prices.  In the Low Growth
Scenario, over 40 percent of all passenger miles traveled would be
provided by mass transit in 2000, compared with 12 percent in the
High Growth Scenario.  In both scenarios, the projected average auto-
mobile miles per gallon reaches 27.5 in 2000 for all vehicles on the
road.-*

     In evaluating the environmental implications of these energy
supply and demand scenarios, a regulatory background for emission
standards must also be established.  The trend projections presented
in this chapter make two simplifying assumptions:  (1) that no addi-
tions or changes will be made to the standards promulgated as of July
1, 1978,6 and (2) that all sources will attain full, on-time compli-
ance with these standards.  The effect of these assumptions may be
to understate potentially significant emission levels wherever non-
compliance problems are expected to be acute (e.g.,  mobile source
controls) and overstate pollution problems in areas  where future reg-
ulatory initiatives are anticipated (e.g., controls  on combustion-
related NOX emissions, controls on heavy trucks and  buses).  This
should be kept in mind when the results in this chapter are inter-
preted.

     In addition to the analysis of the energy-related environmental
trends projected for the High Growth Scenario and the Low Growth
Scenario, the probable pollution impacts of several  other possible
"energy futures" are examined in this chapter.  These alternatives
call for:

     o  High Conservation

     o  High Solar

     o  High Synfuels

     o  Low Nuclear

     Each of these scenarios is based on the assumption that national
policy is directed toward encouraging or discouraging some form of
energy use.  Unlike the SEAS scenarios, the alternative energy
^Considering recently discovered problems in estimating fleet miles
 per gallon, it is uncertain whether actual fleet miles per gallon
 will attain 27.5 in the time period assumed, even though estimated
 fleet miles per gallon may well reach that mark.
^Revised New Source Performance Standards for utility boilers were
 promulgated in June, 1979.  Current expectations are that similar
 standards will be promulgated for industrial boilers in 1981.

                                 719

-------
futures examined are not based upon a detailed set of assumptions and
an extensive data base.  Consequently, these scenarios are examined
qualitatively and their probable environmental trends are compared
to those projected for the High Growth Scenario.  Through these com-
parisons we can focus on how differing energy technology mixes might
affect the major energy-related environmental impacts expected under
the High Growth conditions.

14.1.2  Regulatory Background

     In the past three years, five major environmental laws which
influence the ways energy is produced and consumed have been enacted
or amended significantly:

     o  The Clean Air Act as amended in 1977 (PL 95-95)

     o  The Clean Water Act of 1977 (PL 95-217)

     o  The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976
        (PL 94-580)

     o  The Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976
        (PL 94-469)

     o  The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of
        1977 (PL 95-87)

A synopsis of the first four of these laws is presented in Section
3.4.  The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act is discussed in
Section 10.4.  The Clean Mr Act Amendments, the Resource Conserva-
tion and Recovery Act, and the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation
Act have the most significant impact on energy production and use.

     Recent energy-related legislation also has environmental impli-
cations.  The Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act of
1974 (PL 93-319) and the Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of
1978 (PL 95-620) stipulate that coal replace oil and natural gas as
fuel in new electric utilities and large industrial boilers.  By vir-
tually eliminating oil and gas as fuels for generating electricty in
the future, these laws call for increased reliance on coal and ura-
nium to produce electricity.  The fuel mix assumptions for electric
utilities are shown in Table 14-2.

     The increased use of coal as fuel is of particular environmental
significance because coal per unit of energy output creates more pol-
lutants than either oil or gas.  The New Source Performance Standards
(NSPS) requirements of the Clean Air Act Amendments require that
                                720

-------
                              TABLE 14-2
             FUEL MIX ASSUMPTIONS FOR ELECTRIC UTILITIES
                             (1015 Btu)
Fuel Type
Coal
Old3
Newb
Total
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydroelectric
Other
Total
1975
Demand

2.9
0.0
2.9
1.0
1.0
0.6
0.9
0.0
6.4
Demand
High Growth

2.3
6.0
8.2
0.5
0.05
4.5
1.1
0.4
14.9
in 2000
Low Growth

2.6
4.4
6.9
0.8
0.6
3.6
1.1
0.3
13.3
aPre-1976 plants, controlled by State Implementation Plan (SIP)
 regulations.  The 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments set emission stan-
 dards for plants constructed or modified after 1971; in the SEAS
 model, it is assumed construction of a plant requires four years.
 Therefore, plants beginning operation before 1976 and controlled
 under SIP regulations are termed "old."
"Post-1976 plants, controlled by New Source Performance Standards.
                                721

-------
emissions from new coal-fired plants be stringently controlled.  How-
ever, even with such controls, these existing,  unmodified coal-fired
plants not covered by NSPS requirements represent a significant
source of pollutants, particularly sulfur and nitrogen oxides,
through 2000.

14.1.3  Data Sources and Quality

     The trends discussed in this chapter are generally derived from
the SEAS-based portions of Chapters 4 (Air Pollutants), 6 (Water Pol-
lutants), and 10 (Solid and Hazardous Wastes).   A discussion of the
sources and quality of the data used in developing these trends can
be found in the appropriate sections of these chapters.

14.1.4  Chapter Organization

     This chapter examines the trends for pollutants and water con-
sumption associated with energy production and consumption.   Section
14.2 summarizes the energy-related trends associated with both the
High and the Low Growth Scenarios and points up contrasts between
them, and then discusses implications of the major environmental is-
sues posed by these pollutant trends.  Section 14.3 describes the
ways in which these issues would be affected by varying energy mixes
and discusses the energy technologies and technology mixes that are
environmentally the most damaging and the most benign.  Section 14.4
summarizes the conclusions drawn from the analyses and comparisons.

     The focus of this chapter is on national trends; however, some
regional trends information is included.  Following a description of
pollution trends associated with the energy mix postulated in the
High Growth Scenario, High and Low Growth trends are compared, and
their implications are discussed.

14.2  TRENDS IN ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTANTS

     The processing and combustion of fuels for energy—particularly
the combustion of fossil fuels—are significant contributors to the
atmospheric release of each of the criteria air pollutants,  the ef-
fluent discharge of dissolved solids and oils and greases, and the
generation of noncombustible solid wastes and industrial sludges.

     This section examines the major energy-related pollution trends
for air, water, and solid waste, as projected on the basis of SEAS
High Growth Scenario assumptions.  Many other pollution problems are
associated with energy-related activities, including mine runoff,
groundwater contamination, and land degradation.  These problems, not
analyzed in this year's Environmental Outlook, will be included in
the future.

                                  722

-------
 14.2.1  SEAS High Growth Scenario Pollution Trends

     Air Pollution

     In 1975, energy-related activities" accounted for more than
half the net emissions of four of the five criteria air pollutants
examined here.  These percentages are:

              Pollutant            Percent of Net Emissions

           Total suspended
             particulates (TSP)               32

           Sulfur oxides (SOX)                87

           Nitrogen oxides (NOX)              80

           Hydrocarbons (HC)                  66

           Carbon monoxide (CO)               90

     Trends in energy-related emissions usually mirror the projected
overall trend for total air pollutant releases from all sources be-
tween 1975 and 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  However, the kinds
of contributions made by energy-related emissions to overall pollut-
ant levels for the criteria air pollutants differ somewhat from pol-
lutant to pollutant.  In general, energy-related emissions fall into
three broad categories;

     (1)  For particulates and sulfur oxides,  most energy-related
          emissions are produced by the combustion of fossil fuels
          (primarily coal) in stationary sources such as electric
          utilities and industrial boilers.  This pattern is ex-
          pected to continue from 1975 to 2000.
'There is considerable margin for error in estimating the residuals
 generated by production processes (e.g.,  sampling error, errors in
 estimating production levels, errors in facility siting, etc.).
 SEAS does not provide a framework for accounting for these errors.
 To aid in minimizing the biases introduced by some of these errors,
 two contrasting scenarios are analyzed in an attempt to "bound" the
 error.
"Energy related activities are defined as  those activities con-
 cerned with the production, conversion, and consumption of energy.
 For example: the industrial combustion of coke to provide heat in
 steel production is an energy related activity while the production
 of steel by use of an electric arc furnace is not.

                                  723

-------
     (2)  For nitrogen oxides,  the sources  of  1975 energy-related
          emissions were almost equally divided between stationary
          source combustion of  fuel and emissions from transporta-
          tion sources.   However,  projections  for increased coal use
          between 1975 and 2000,  coupled with  expected improvements
          in energy efficiency  and the assumed implementation of
          emissions controls for transportation,  would shift the bulk
          of future NOX emissions  to stationary-source combustion.

     (3)  Energy-related hydrocarbon and carbon monoxide emissions
          come primarily from fuels used in transportation, although
          petroleum refining would account  for an increasing percent-
          age of energy-related releases of hydrocarbons between 1975
          and 2000.

     Particulates.   Nationwide, net particulate emissions from all
sources are projected to decrease between 1975 and 2000^; the low-
est point (roughly  45 percent below 1975 levels) is forecast as 1985,
the year in which full compliance with State Implementation Plan
(SIP) standards is  assumed.  After 1985, the effects of economic
growth and increasing fossil fuel combustion are expected to reverse
the overall downward trend.  Net particulate emissions by 2000 are
forecast to be only 15 percent lower than in 1975.

     Coal combustion from all sources accounted for 30 percent of all
particulates emitted in 1975.  Particulate  emission levels from coal
combustion in 2000  are projected to be about 60 percent below 1975
levels.  This decrease is expected even though a 250 percent increase
in coal combustion is projected between 1975 and 2000.  Compliance
with SIP regulations, retirement of older,  "dirty" plants, and strin-
gent control requirements for new coal-fired plants, are expected to
result in a sharper decline in particulate  emissions from coal com-
bustion than from non-energy-related sources.

     Sulfur Oxides.  Given the environmental policy assumptions con-
tain e^~Tn~The~High Growth Scenario, net emissions of sulfur oxides
are projected to decrease by 9 percent by 1985, a drop attributable
to compliance with SIP regulations.  The level of sulfur oxide emis-
sions is projected to remain relatively constant after 1985, but the
effects of economic growth are expected to  cause total net emissions
to increase gradually.  Total net emissions in 2000 are projected to
exceed  1975 levels by only 6 percent.
^These projections assume that old coal-fired utilities retire more
 slowly under Low Growth Scenario conditions.  This assumption has
 been disputed.  For a discussion of retirement rates, see Appendix
 B.

                                 724

-------
     Emissions from utilities are projected to remain the single lar-
gest source of SOX through 2000.  However, the use of control tech-
nologies required by SIP, NSPS, and BACT standards is expected to
lead to a decrease of almost 20 percent in net SOX emissions from
utilities between 1975 and 1985.  Under High Growth assumptions, net
emissions from utilities are forecast to remain fairly constant be-
tween 1985 and 2000, as the retirement of comparatively dirty, old
(pre-1976) coal- and oil-fired plants counterbalances emission
increases from additions of new coal-burning capacity.*"

     On the other hand, SOX emissions from industrial combustion
activity are expected to increase between 1975 and 2000, even with
the use of emission control technologies.  This is due to the pro-
jected large increase in industrial coal use.  During this time
period, industrial use of coal is projected to increase five times,
while net emissions triple.  This tripling of net emissions from
industrial sources is projected to offset reductions from utilities
and accounts for the slight increase seen in overall SOX emissions
between 1975 and 2000.

     Nitrogen Oxides.  While most nitrogen oxide emissions result
from stationary-source fuel combustion, transportation is also a
major source.  Electric utility and industrial fuel use accounted
for roughly 40 percent of NOX emissions in 1975, while transporta-
tion sources represented 35 percent of emission levels for that year.
Petroleum refining accounted for another 8 percent of national NOX
emissions in 1975.  Unlike particulate and SOX emissions, gross and
net emissions of NOX are virtually identical, because of the
general absence of control requirements for most NOX sources.H

     Net NOX releases are projected to increase by 20 percent be-
tween 1975 and 1985, as increases in fuel combustion residuals out-
weigh the anticipated emission decreases resulting from mobile source
controls.  Between 1985 and 1990, emission levels remain relatively
constant as mobile source controls in the automobile fleet counter-
balances the growth in industrial and utility fuel combustion antici-
pated in that time period.  Emissions are expected to rise steadily
between 1990 and 2000 as fuel combustion activity continues to
increase and transportation-related emissions also begin to increase.
      Appendix B for a discussion of the environmental policy
  assumptions contained in the SEAS scenarios.  The reader should
  keep in mind that this analysis assumes that all standards, in-
  cluding SIP standards, will be complied with in full in the
  future.  Given the current trends on compliance with SIP standards,
  the validity of this assumption is questionable.
•"•^•Boiler modifications can reduce NOX emissions from 5 to 50 per-
  cent.  Requirements for modifications were not integrated into
  the version of SEAS used to produce this report.

                                 725

-------
     Marked shifts in the relative importance of the major sources of
net NOX are anticipated for 2000.  Extensive use of coal and oil
instead of natural gas as an industrial boiler fuel (chiefly small
boilers) would result in a nearly two-fold increase in combustion-
related pollutants over the 1975 to 2000 time period.  Emissions of
NOX from industrial fuel combustion by 2000 are projected to
triple, while emissions from transportation sources would be expected
to decline by roughly 25 percent from 1975 levels if currently pro-
mulgated mobile source standards are met.^  Throughout the 25-year
period, electric utilities are expected to increase net NOX emis-
sions by a factor of about 1.5.  Electric utilities would continue
to be the largest single source of NOX emissions.

     Hydrocarbons.  In 1975, transportation was the primary source of
net hydrocarbon (HC) emissions, accounting for 55 percent of the
national total.  Petroleum refining accounted for another 10 percent
that year.  The substantial reductions in net hydrocarbon releases
projected for the 1975 to 2000 period are attributable to pollution
control measures and technological improvements to autos and
trucks.13

     Net HC releases are projected to decline substantially between
1975 and 1985 and remain relatively constant thereafter.  Much of the
initial decline is due to reduced transportation emissions, reflect-
ing the impact of compliance with present mobile source abatement
requirements.  Over the 1985 to 2000 time period, improvements in
emissions controls are expected to be extended to all automobiles and
result in further reductions in HC emissions.

     The only significant source of HC projected to generate in-
creased pollutants throughout the forecast period is petroleum re-
fining and storage, in which only minor improvements in abatement
practices are expected.  However, even for this activity the expected
shift toward the use of coal rather than liquid hydrocarbon fuels is
projected to dampen emissions growth.
      extent to which these standards will actually be met is prob-
  lematic, particularly considering recent experiences with catalyst
  poisonings due to the use of leaded fuels.
  This analysis assumes that pollution control requirements for
  auto and truck emissions will be met.   These requirements are
  more stringent than those for trucks so that the decline in auto
  emissions is expected to offset the increase in truck emissions.

                                 726

-------
     Carbon Monoxide.^  In 1975, automobiles and trucks accounted
for 90 percent of all net carbon monoxide emissions.   Emission levels
are expected to decline by approximately one-half between 1975 and
1990 and then level off.  It appears that CO emission levels in the
future will be determined largely by growth in transportation activi-
ties.  Carbon monoxide emissions from automobiles in 2000 are
expected to be only 30 percent of 1975 levels, and from trucks, only
68 percent.  These decreases due to control requirements specified in
the Clean Air Act would more than offset projected increases in non-
energy emission levels.  Total CO emissions in 2000 are expected to
be 55 percent of 1975 levels.

     Water Pollution

     The energy technologies included in our definition of energy-
related activities would not directly contribute significantly to
most of the point source water pollutants discussed in this report.
However, there are two notable exceptions:  total dissolved solids,
and oils and greases.

     Many energy technologies, particularly coal combustion technolo-
gies, may contribute significantly to water quality problems indi-
rectly.  By emitting quantities of sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides
into the atmosphere, coal combustion sources may be contributing to
the lowering of pH in many lakes (see Chapter 5).  Further, emissions
of trace metals, in particular heavy metals, to the atmosphere may
add to the concentration of these metals in water bodies.

     Dissolved Solids.  In 1975S electric utilities accounted for
roughly one-half of all point source discharges of dissolved
solids,1-5 and they are projected to remain the major source of dis-
solved solids between 1975 and 2000.  Net discharges are expected to
increase by 175 percent during this time period, and by 2000, elec-
tric utilities are expected to contribute two-thirds of the point
source dissolved solids discharge.

     Increased discharges are attributable both to continued growth
in electric generating capacity and to changes in the composition of
this capacity.  Output of electricity is expected to increase by 60
percent between 1975 and 2000, and gross discharges of dissolved
solids can, therefore, be expected to rise at similar rates.  In addi-
tion, this growth in discharges would be accelerated by the anticipa-
ted expansion of nuclear power.  Substantial growth in nuclear
14See footnote 13.
^Dissolved solids are a measure of the nonfilterable portion of
  total solids.
                                 727

-------
generation of electricity (from 0.6 quads in 1975 to 4.5 quads in
2000) is expected to produce a ninefold increase in net dissolved
solids discharges from nuclear power.   Dissolved solids discharges
from nuclear power plants are projected to increase at the same rate
as nuclear output, since these emissions are not assumed to be con-
trolled.

     Oils and Greases.  In 1975, 40 percent of the point discharges
of oils and greases in the United States came from petroleum refining
and storage.  By 2000, overall releases of oils and greases are pro-
jected to decline to 70 percent of 1975 totals, whereas discharges
from petroleum refining and storage are expected to increase to 125
percent of their 1975 levels and to 70 percent of the overall nation-
al total.

     Water Consumption

     In 1975, electric utilities accounted for one-half the water
consumed by the energy and manufacturing industries.  Since both the
utility industry, as well as all energy and manufacturing industries
combined are expected to double their water consumption by 2000,
electric utilities are projected to maintain approximately the same
share (one-half) of water consumption through 2000.  This increased
water consumption is attributable to the high growth rates projected
for nuclear power plant generation and to the fact that these power
plants consume almost two-and-one-haIf times as much water per
kilowatt-hour generated as do conventional fossil fuel power plants.

     The consumption of water during production of synthetic fuels
from coal, particularly synthetic gas, is projected to increase from
zero in 1975 to about 840 thousand acre-feet by 2000.  Although this
represents only about 7 percent of the total industrial water con-
sumption projected for 2000, it is anticipated that many coal-based
synthetic fuel plants will be located in the water—short areas west
of the Mississippi River (Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, and Wyom-
ing)^ where the impacts of this consumption may be significant.
      White, I.L. et al., Energy From the West;  Policy Analysis
  Report, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Energy,
  Minerals, and Industry, Washington, B.C., 1979.
                                  728

-------
     Solid Waste

     Noncombustible Solid Wastes.    In 1975, coal-fired electric
utilities accounted for over half the noncombustible solid waste
(NCSW) produced in this country.  Between 1975 and 2000, most NCSW is
expected to come from removal of partlculates and bottom ash from
coal-fired utilities.  The assumed rise in coal use, plus increas-
ingly stringent requirements for particulate removal, leads to pro-
jections of higher annual NCSW from coal-fired electric utilities,
with levels in 2000 expected to increase by 150 percent over 1975.

     The generation of electricity by coal-fired power plants is ex-
pected to increase somewhat more rapidly than its associated solid
waste: by 2000, coal-fired electricity generation is projected to
increase by 183 percent over 1975 levels.  The resulting decline in
the generation of NCSW from coal-fired power plants relative to
amount of electricity generated is due, in part, to the assumption
that a growing portion of the coal used in power plants will be
either cleaned coal or certain cleaner Western coals.

     Industrial Sludges.  Energy-related sources accounted for less
than 1 percent of industrial sludges in 1975, but this picture is
expected to change dramatically by 2000 when a tenfold increase in
generation is projected.  The major cause of the increase would be
the imposition of stringent requirements—SIP, NSPS, and Best
Available Control Technology (BACT) regulations—for the control of
sulfur oxides on coal-burning power plants and industrial combus-
tion facilities.  These coal combustion sources are projected to gen-
erate roughly 70 percent of all industrial sludges by 1985 and 80
percent of all sludges by 2000.  Coal combustion sources alone are
projected to produce more than twice as much sludge annually by 1985
as did all sources in 1975.

     Oil Shale Wastes.  By utilizing the oil shale reserves within
the Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII), oil shale production is
projected to increase from zero in 1975 to 0.9 quads in 1985, 2.1
quads in 1990, and 5.4 quads in 2000.  These levels of production are
higher than those contained in the President's energy program.   An
increasing portion of this energy is assumed to come from in-situ oil
shale techniques:  11 percent in 1985, 15 percent in 1990, and 20
percent in 2000.  In-situ techniques result in much lower volumes of
NCSW per Btu of energy produced in comparison with conventional
recovery techniques.   Nevertheless, annual generation of oil shale
waste is projected to reach almost 1.5 billion tons by 2000 if oil
shale production is pursued this vigorously.
1'Noncombustible solid waste is defined as the waste generated by
  the removal of particulates, ash, and dust in combustion and pro-
  duction processes (see Section 10.5).

                                 729

-------
     Regional Trends

     Air Pollution.   Under High Growth Scenario conditions,  most
trends in the Federal Regions tend to mirror the national trends for
air pollutants.  However, several important exceptions emerge,  par-
ticularly for electric utilities.  The South Central Region  (Federal
Region VI) is the only region in which particulate levels from  energy
sources are expected to increase between 1975 and 2000.   The shift in
Federal Region VI from oil and gas utilities to coal-fired plants
results in projected increases in particulate levels, but increases
from such non-energy activities as the production of aluminum,  stone,
clay, and glass products are even greater,

     Under the High Growth Scenario,  the South Central and New
England Regions (Federal Regions VI and I)  show expected significant
increases in sulfur oxide emissions due to  energy production and use,
chiefly from the introduction of coal-fired electric utilities  into
areas where little coal was used previously.  In Federal Region VI,
SOX emissions are projected to more than triple between 1975 and
2000, primarily because of the "new"  use of coal in electricity
generation.  Net SOX emissions in Region I  are projected to  in-
crease by nearly 20 percent between 1975 and 2000 as a result of con-
verting some oil-fired plants to coal-fired capacity under the  Energy
Supply and Environmental Coordination Act (ESECA) and the construc-
tion of coal-fired plants in the region-

     In all 10 Federal Regions, increased emissions of nitrogen
oxides are projected, but large increases in net NOX releases are
anticipated in the Southeast, South Central, and Mountain Regions
(Federal Regions IVS VI, and VIII).  In these regions, coal  use in
utility and industrial applications is projected to expand very
rapidly.

     Regional trends for hydrocarbon  and carbon monoxide generally
reflect the national trend toward declining emissions between 1975
and 2000, given High Growth conditions.  However, in certain areas,
such as the Mountain, West, and Northwest Regions (Federal Regions
VIII, IX, and X), where the petroleum refining industry is projected
to grow, localized increases in HC emissions may be expected.

     Water Pollution.  The greatest relative regional increase  in
dissolved solids water pollutants is  expected to be in the Northwest
Region (Federal Region X), where annual net discharges are projected
to increase 350 percent between 1975  and 2000, given High Growth con-
ditions.  This increase is primarily  attributable to projected  growth
in coal-fired and nuclear utility generating capacity in the region.
                                 730

-------
     Nuclear generation of electricity is considered responsible for
an expected 160 percent increase in net dissolved solids discharged
between 1975 and 2000 in the New England Region (Federal Region I).
Projected increases in coal-fired and nuclear electrical output
account for most of the rise in net dissolved solids discharges in
the Southeast Region (Federal Region IV) over the 1975-2000 period,
as this region experiences significant growth in electrical genera-
tion capacity.

     Alaskan oil production is projected to increase more than ten-
fold between 1975 and 2000.  The trans-Alaskan pipeline is expected
to contribute significantly to increases in net discharges of oil and
grease in the Northwest Region (Federal Region X).  There will prob-
ably be more pipeline leaks and spills than is ordinarily the case
because of environmental conditions unique to Alaska.  Increased
production of Alaskan oil can be expected to affect the net dischar-
ges of oils and greases from petroleum refining in the West Region
(Federal Region IX).  If, as assumed, a large portion of the oil from
the Alaskan oil fields is refined in California,  annual net
discharges of oil and grease from petroleum refining and storage in
the West would be expected to increase by 14 percent during the
1975-2000 period.  However, reductions in oil and grease discharges
due to compliance with effluent standards by non-energy industries
would more than offset the increases from petroleum refining.

     Water Consumption.  Significant trends in energy-related water
consumption are expected to occur in regions west of the Mississippi
River.  The Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII)  is expected to
exhibit the highest relative growth in water consumption for energy
and manufacturing.   Regional energy and manufacturing water consump-
tion is expected to increase about thirteenfold between 1975 and
2000.  Almost all the projected increases in Federal Region VIII are
attributable to fairly water-intensive energy-related activities.
These activities, which include oil shale mining,  electric power gen-
eration,  and synthetic fuel production, are expected to account for
90 percent of the regional increases in energy and manufacturing
water consumption by 2000.  Water use at the projected levels for
manufacturing and energy would result in serious conflicts with
domestic and agricultural uses.

     The South Central Region (Federal Region VI)  is also expected to
exhibit major growth in energy-related water consumption.  The
principal  energy-based water consumer in this region is expected to
be the electric utilities industry throughout the  1975-2000 period.
This industry's annual water consumption in 2000 is projected to be
more than  four times its 1975  level.  Coal  conversion activity is
also expected to contribute to energy-related water consumption by
2000, totaling roughly 10 percent of industrial  and energy water use
by that time.
                                 731

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     Solid Waste.  Under the High Growth Scenario conditions, the
South Central Region (Federal Region VI) is projected to show sub-
stantial increases in noncombustible solid wastes between 1975 and
2000.  NCSW generation is projected to reach more than five times its
1975 levels by 2000, primarily because of rapidly increasing use of
coal as fuel for electric power generation and as a substitute for
natural gas in industrial combustion facilities.  By 2000,  Federal
Region VI is expected to account for 23 percent of all conventional
NCSW generated nationally.

     However, by 2000, oil shale wastes are expected to account for
nearly three times as much NCSW as all other NCSW sources combined.
These wastes are expected to be exclusively located in the Mountain
Region (Federal Region VIII), the site of the richest oil shale
deposits in the nation.

     In 1975, a major portion of industrial sludge was generated in
four regions:  Middle Atlantic, Southeast, Great Lakes, and South
Central (Federal Regions III, IV, V, and VI).  These regions are also
projected to receive the major share of new coal combustion facili-
ties; for this reason, overall sludge generation in these regions is
expected to increase more rapidly than the national rate.  Thus,
these regions will continue to account for at least 70 percent of
projected industrial sludge generation through 2000 under High Growth
conditions.

14.2.2  Low Growth Scenario Comparisons

     The High and Low Growth Scenarios postulate different growth
rates for energy between 1975 and 2000.  Total energy supply would
expand at an annual average 2.1 percent under High Growth conditions,
and  1.5 percent under Low Growth.  This rise in the energy supply is
attributed chiefly to more coal use, more electricity generation from
nuclear power, and oil recovery from Western oil shales.

     These differences in postulated rates of growth in energy supply
result in different projected trends in environmental pollutants
associated with energy production and consumption.  In general, under
Low  Growth conditions, lower pollutant levels are expected.  However,
because differences in the GNP assumed for each scenario lead to dif-
ferent energy supply mixes, the differences  in  pollutant levels be-
tween scenarios are not simply proportional  to  the differences in the
assumed rates of energy growth.

     Differences in Coal Use

     Under the High Growth Scenario assumptions, use of coal would
rise from 22 percent of the total  1975 energy supply to 35 percent in

                                 732

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2000.  In the Low Growth Scenario, slower increase in coal use is
assumed:  coal would provide about 30 percent of the energy supply by
2000.  The higher use of coal by electric utilities and industrial
boilers projected in the High Growth Scenario is reflected in the
trends of several pollutants.  For particulates, SOX, and NOX,
national emission levels in 2000 are projected to be higher under the
High Growth than under the Low Growth Scenario.  And in those regions
where a higher growth rate for new utility and industrial coal use is
postulated, higher levels of particulates, SOX, and NOX are also
projected.

     However, in some regions, older plants continue to represent a
substantial source of these pollutants until 2000.  Since the SIP
standards that apply to pre-1976 plants are less stringent than the
controls placed on new facilities, older plants emit more pollutant
per unit of electricity generated than do new plants.  In the High
Growth Scenario, for example, old coal-fired plants would generate 40
percent of the coal-fired electricity in 1985, yet they would produce
60 percent of the particulates from coal-fired plants.  (See Appendix
B, on boiler retirement rate.)  Under Low Growth conditions, old
plants are predicted to release even more particulates because slower
retirement rates are assumed for these plants.*°  This is particu-
larly significant in a region such as the Great Lakes (Federal Re-
gion V) where numerous coal plants were operating in 1975.

     A similar trend is evident for solid waste generation, where
High Growth Scenario levels in 2000 are expected to exceed those for
the Low Growth case.  As reflected at the regional level, the scen-
ario in which coal use is expected to be higher (both for combustion
and for production of synthetic fuels) is projected to have higher
levels of NCSW and industrial sludges.

     Note that the projected increases for industrial sludges and
NCSW are tied to the assumptions made about environmental regulations
and the pollution control equipment required to meet them.  It is
assumed that most new coal plants coming on line in the 1980s will be
equipped with wet, nonregenerable scrubbers designed to meet NSPS and
BACT requirements.  However, this method of sulfur oxide control
leads to large volumes of solid waste requiring proper disposal.
Further, all plants coming on line after 1975 will have to meet the
•"•"Old coal-fired utilities produced more particulates in the Low
  Growth Scenarios since, due to the assumptions of slower retirement
  rates, there are more old plants in a given year after 1975 in the
  Low Growth than in the High Growth Scenario.
                                  733

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NSPS and BACT particulate emissions standards and hence generate
large volumes of NCSW.  Both these solid wastes will require proper
disposal.  Thus, the increased coal use assumed in both scenarios,
coupled with the requirements of the Clean Air Act, is directly
linked to the projected trends in solid waste generation.

     Differences in Oil Use

     One of the primary differences in High and Low Growth Scenario
assumptions is in oil use, in particular oil imports.  The price of
oil between 1985 and 2000 is assumed to be 50 percent higher in the
Low Growth Scenario than in the High.  Under the Low Growth Scenario
it is assumed that this high price would stimulate domestic oil
production, and that imports of oil would decrease from 12.7 quads in
1975 to 9.4 quads in 2000.  It is assumed that the lower cost of oil
postulated in the High Growth Scenario would stimulate the general
economy, and that consumption of both domestic and imported oil would
increase.  Imports under High Growth would increase from 12.7 quads
in 1975 to 13.2 quads in 2000, while conventional domestic production
(i.e., not including oil shale) would increase from 20.3 quads to
23.5 quads compared to 23.4 quads in the Low Growth Scenario.  Thus
projected conventional domestic production of oil is virtually iden-
tical in the two scenarios.  The difference in projected oil totals
stems primarily from the projected import rates and the assumptions
on development of synthetic crude from oil shale.

     Pollutants associated with oil use, emissions of hydrocarbons
and discharges of oils and grease from refineries, are expected to be
higher in the High Growth Scenario.  These are of particular impor-
tance in regions where imported crude is refined.  Because the two
scenarios assume roughly the same amount of domestic crude oil pro-
duction (including Alaskan oil), little difference is projected for
releases from the conventional oil fuel cycle.

     Differences in New Technologies

     Oil shale technologies play a significant role in both scenar-
ios.  Shale oil production would increase most sharply in the High
Growth Scenario, in response to strong petroleum demand and healthy
economic conditions.  The increase would be twice that anticipated
under Low Growth conditions, despite the high world oil price assumed
in the Low Growth scenario.  Under High Growth conditions, oil shale
wastes in the Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII) would also be
twice as great.

     Taken together, other new technologies would provide only about
1 percent of the U.S. energy supply in 2000 in either scenario.
                                 734

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     Differences in Energy Demand

     Between 1975 and 2000, the proportion of energy required for
transportation would decline from 34 percent to 27 percent of all
energy demand in the High Growth Scenario, and to 23 percent in the
Low Growth Scenario.  The actual amount of energy used in transporta-
tion would increase by about 25 percent in the High Growth Scenario
but would decrease by 10 percent in the Low Growth case.  Thus hydro-
carbon and carbon monoxide levels, which decline sharply under High
Growth assumptions due to compliance with existing regulative,  wmld
be even lower in the Low Growth case in 2000.

     By far the greatest increase in energy demand would occur in
industry, which would double its demand in both scenarios.
means that the energy used by industry would rise from 30 percent
of all energy demand in 1975 to 40 percent in 2000.   By 2000, in the
High Growth Scenario, industrial demand for coal is 75 percent higher
than in the Low Growth Scenario and industrial demand for oil is 50
percent higher.  However, industrial demand for natural gas is 15
percent higher in the Low Growth Scenario.  Industrial uses of coal
and oil are much more polluting than industrial uses of natural
gas—hence, the trend toward higher pollution levels assumed in the
High Growth Scenario.

14.2.3  Implications of Environmental Trends Associated With the High
        Growth Scenario

     The energy-related environmental trends discussed here highlight
several important factors.

     Sulfur oxides.  Most areas not in compliance with ambient air
quality standards for sulfur dioxide in 1975 were concentrated in the
heavily industrialized Middle Atlantic and Great Lakes Regions (Fed-
eral Regions III and V), particularly along the Ohio River Valley.
The high sulfur oxide emission levels in these Regions represented a
health risk.  They also contributed to acid rain problems in the New
England and New York-New Jersey Regions (Federal Regions I and II)
through the long-range transport of SOX.  Sulfur dioxide emissions
are projected to decline slightly by 2000 from their 1975 levels in
Federal Regions III and V, under High Growth assumptions; however,
these Regions are still expected to have relatively high SOX levels.
It is not clear whether these declines would be large enough to im-
prove eastern air quality significantly.

     Air quality in other areas may be degraded by increased sulfur
oxide emissions projected under High Growth assumptions.  Coal use by
industry and utilities is expected to increase substantially in the
South Central Region (Federal Region VI).  Because natural gas was a

                                 735

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primary fuel in that Region,  sulfur oxide levels were relatively
low in 1975; sharply increased coal use is expected to cause large
increases in SOX levels by 2000.  These increases may degrade air
quality in heavily industrialized areas,  particularly in Texas.

     Similarly, substantial increases in SOX emissions are expected
by 2000 in the Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII).  The principal
sources are expected to be coal-fired utilities and industrial boil-
ers, coal gasification and liquefaction plants, and oil shale facil-
ities.  However, SOX emission levels in the Mountain Region are not
expected to be as high as those in other regions.  Meeting require-
ments for the protection of Class I Prevention of Significant Dete-
rioration (PSD) areas!9 may affect energy production in the Region,
primarily in terms of facility size and siting.

     Nitrogen Oxides.  Nitrogen oxide emissions increase substan-
tially in the High Growth Scenario.  While auto emission standards
are expected to reduce NOX emissions from transportation sources,
greater reliance on coal is projected to lead to increases of NOX
in every Federal Region by 2000.20  Because adequate abatement
technologies do not currently exist to control these emissions (see
Chapter 4), NOX is already a major contributor to acid rain. As
sulfur oxide emission levels decline, the composition of acid rain
may become increasingly nitric.  Continued increases in NOX emis-
sion levels may also compound photochemical oxidant problems in many
urban areas, including those that have made progress in smog cleanup
through reductions in NOX emissions from transportation sources.

     Solid Wastes.  The increased coal use and the environmental con-
trols assumed in the High Growth Scenario would lead to large volumes
of solid waste being generated annually by 2000.  In comparison, oil
and gas use results in relatively low solid waste levels.  The high
ash content of coal produces large volumes of bottom ash and fly ash
after burning, and control devices required to meet NSPS and BACT
regulations generate additional volumes of solid waste.  The use
of electrostatic precipitators and wet, nonregenerable scrubbers to
remove particulates and sulfur dioxide from stack gases results  in
large amounts of ash and sludge that require handling and disposal.
These wastes would have to be disposed of in compliance with the
future regultions under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act
of  1976 (PL 94-580).  This would affect the cost of using coal.
 ^Mandatory Class  I areas  include  land set aside as national parks,
   forests, etc.  See Chapter 4.
  ^This  projection  assumes  that no  changes will be made  to NOX
   emission control requirements between  1978 and 2000.

                                  736

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     Synthetic Fuels.  Increased reliance on domestic coal and oil
shale would place a heavy environmental burden on the Mountain Region
(Federal Region VIII).  The states of Federal Region VIII are rich in
energy resources as well as natural beauty.  However, the availabil-
ity of water supplies that would be adequate for energy development
is uncertain.  Under High Growth Scenario assumptions, oil shale
wastes would reach 1.5 billion tons annually by 2000, almost all of
which would be in a small area of northwestern Colorado.  The dispo-
sal of these wastes in environmentally acceptable ways is a challenge
for which there is as yet no answer.

     The Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII) is also a prime candi-
date for coal liquefaction and gasification development.  These tech-
nologies result in substantial solid waste volumes, in addition to
increasing demands on limited water supplies and affecting air qual-
ity.  Coal-fired utilities locating near the vast coal seams would
lead to even higher levels of air pollutant emissions than oil shale
and coal conversion activities combined.  In no other region do the
goals of environmental quality and energy self-reliance clash so
sharply.21

     As previously discussed, the greater energy-related activity
associated with the High Growth Scenario generally leads to projec-
tions of higher levels than those for the Low Growth Scenario,
particularly because of the higher levels of coal use assumed under
the High Growth Scenario.  Despite stringent control requirements for
new coal-fired utilities and large industrial boilers, more coal use
leads to more air pollutant emissions and solid waste generation in
both scenarios.  Older plants, controlled by less stringent regula-
tions, contribute a larger percentage of energy-related air pollutant
emissions under Low Growth conditions because of the slower retire-
ment rate for these plants.  However, the high growth rate for coal
use projected for the High Growth Scenario more than offsets this
difference.

14.2.4  Implications of Scenario Differences

     Despite projections of overall lower levels of sulfur oxide
emissions by 2000 in the Low Growth Scenario (compared to those for
        the Mountain Region is so vast, direct comparisons on the
  Federal Region level are potentially misleading.   The discharge
  of pollutants affects portions of the Region (e.g., the quality of
  a stream or the land used for waste disposal).   The reader should
  keep in mind that to directly compare regional  pollutant releases,
  the comparison should be done on a per unit of  area (volume)
  affected, not on a per unit of area (volume) in the Region as a
  who1e.

                                  737

-------
the High Growth case), emission levels in the Middle Atlantic and
Great Lakes Regions (Federal Regions III and V) are projected to
remain high between 1975 and 2000 in both scenarios.  Whether the
projected small reduction in emission levels between the two scenar-
ios would alleviate air quality problems in Federal Regions III and V
and reduce acid rain levels in the New England and New York-New
Jersey Regions (Federal Regions I and II) is uncertain, but some
improvements would be expected both in comparison to 1975 conditions
and projected High Growth trends.

     Nitrogen oxide levels under Low Growth conditions are expected
to be lower than under High Growth in every Federal Region by 2000;
nevertheless, emissions in all Federal Regions are expected to in-
crease from 1975 levels.  Thus, NOX emissions will remain an
environmental concern through 2000.

     Solid waste generation levels are expected to be lower under the
Low Growth conditions than under High Growth conditions because of
lower levels of projected coal use.  Also, slower depreciation rates
assumed for old electric utilities and industrial boilers in the Low
Growth Scenario would tend to slow further the growth rate of new,
stringently controlled coal-fired utilities.  With fewer plants using
electrostatic precipitators and scrubbers, less sludge generation is
projected under Low Growth conditions.  Although NCSW and industrial
sludge disposal requirements will be substantial under Low Growth
assumptions they will be less severe than under High Growth assump-
tions.

     Oil shale wastes by 2000, under Low Growth conditions, are ex-
pected to be roughly half those projected under High Growth.  Even
so, the solid waste generated annually by oil shale production is
expected to be enormous by 2000.  Thus, under Low Growth assumptions,
spent shale disposal and reclamation problems would still be expected
to occur in northwest Colorado well before 2000.

14.3  COMPARISON OF ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERING
      ENERGY SCENARIOS

     Future patterns in energy supply and demand will be influenced
by many factors—the complex interactions of world oil prices, domes-
tic economic conditions, technological development, and national
energy and environmental policy.  The SEAS High Growth and Low Growth
Scenarios form a basis for examining only two of a wide range of
possible "energy futures."  A major national policy promoting rapid
development of solar technologies or synthetic fuels could lead to
vastly different future energy mixes and, as a result, significantly
affect pollutant trends.  Similarly, a moratorium on nuclear energy
development or the adoption of an effective conservation policy would

                                 738

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result in still other energy futures and different environmental
pollutant trends.

     This section examines environmental pollutant trends associated
with several different energy futures and assesses the impact of
varying energy mixes on the environmental issues identified in
Section 14.2.

     An energy technology's contribution to a pollution problem
depends on both the amount of energy produced by the technology and
the amount of pollutants generated per unit of energy produced.
Detailed quantitative pollutant projections are not available for the
alternative energy scenarios discussed here; hence, the discussion of
their impact on projected environmental issues is primarily qualita-
tive.  However, a comparative assessment of the amount of a pollutant
generated per unit of energy is useful in the analysis of the envi-
ronmental "tradeoffs" represented by various energy futures.

14.3.1  Pollutant Releases from Energy Technologies

     The projected amount of a pollutant produced by a source is
estimated using projected production activity levels and a pollutant
coefficient.  A number of these coefficients have been used to calcu-
late the quantities of pollutants in terms of tons per trillion Btu's
produced, as illustrated in Figures 14-3 through 14-7.  These coeffi-
cients are national averages for operation-related pollutants based
on the pollutant generation and activity levels projected in the SEAS
High Growth Scenario.  Unlike the SEAS coefficients, these coeffi-
cients do not take into account regional differences in pollution
generation, or changes in generation that might occur over time.
However, they do provide a useful description of the direct environ-
mental impacts of different energy initiatives.

     It must be stressed that an assessment of the direct environ-
mental impacts of energy initiatives presents only a portion of the
picture.  Further, this portion may be misleading as in the case of
certain solar initiatives.  However, an assessment of the indirect
impacts related to increased levels of materials production by indus-
try that may arise as a result of an energy initiative is a very com-
plex procedure.  A comprehensive assessment of this nature is beyond
the scope of the current Environmental Outlook.  In the following
sections, the indirect impacts of energy initiatives will be
addressed whenever possible.

     The pollutant coefficients for the emissions of particulate mat-
ter to the atmosphere are presented in Figure 14-3.  Because the ash
content in coal is generally high, compared with other fuels, coal-
fired utilities emit greater amounts of particulates per unit of

                                  739

-------
300-
200-
100-
                           n
                            Q
          Coal-Fired
          Utilities
Auto
Transportation
Truck
Transportation
Ind. Coal
Combustion
                                      FIGURE 14-3
                            PARTICULATE (TSP) EMISSIONS
                                PER 1012 Btu PRODUCED

-------
4000 -
3000 -
2000 -
1000 -
                                                                              i—rn
           Coal-Fired
           Utilities
Auto
Transportation
Truck
Transportation
Industrial Coa
Combustion
                                           FIGURE 14-4
                                SULFUR OXIDE (SOX) EMISSIONS
                                    PER 1012Btu PRODUCED

-------
           1500-
         z
         g
           1000-
            500-
NJ
                      Coal-Fired
                      Utilities
                                                    •;
Auto
Transportation
Truck
Transportation
Industrial Coal
Combustion
                                                     FIGURE 14-5
                                         NITROGEN OXIDE (NOX) EMISSIONS
                                               PER 1012 Btu PRODUCED

-------
          700-
          600-
          500-
          400-
        I  300-
          200-3
                                                                              700
                                                                            450
co
           20-
           10-
                     Coal-Fired
                     Utilities
                                                  D
n
                                                                  CQ •-
                                                                   u
                                                                  JC •'
                                                                  CiO i
                                                                                   -I 370
                    Auto
                    Transportation
Truck
Transportation
Industrial Coa
Combustion
                                                      FIGURE 14-6
                                          HYDROCARBON (HC) EMISSIONS
                                               PER 1012 Btu PRODUCED

-------
                                       16A.OOO
                                            0
30,000-
o  20,000-
   10,000-
               77
                                                                                   Spent Oil Shale

                                                                                  Scrubber Sludge

                                                                                  NCSW
             Pre- NSPS Revised
             1976      NSPS
Coal-Fired Utilities
                                                              3= O
                                                                       1975 2000
                                                                            Auto

                                                                        Transportation
                                                                                    1975 2000
                                                                                     Truck
                                                                                  Transportation
Industrial Coal
  Combustion
                                                 FIGURE 14-7
                                     GENERATION OF SOLID WASTES
                                          PER 1012Btu PRODUCED

-------
energy output than any other source, including both oil- and gas-
fired utilities.  A significant reduction in emissions is achieved,
however, through the imposition of NSPS and revised NSPS requirements
on coal-fired utilities.  Truck transportation and industrial combus-
tion are also significant potential sources of particulates.

     The second major pollutant of concern for energy technologies is
sulfur oxides.  Coal—fired utilities are even more of a major source
for SOX emissions than for particulate emissions relative to other
energy-related sources (Figure 14-4).  Implementing NSPS and BACT
requirements results in a marked decrease in SOX emissions per unit
of energy output.  In the case of coal-fired utilities, BACT
decreases the emissions per unit of heat input lower than those of
industrial coal boilers under BACT requirements.  New oil-fired
utilities must also comply with these standards and will, therefore,
exhibit similar declines in emissions of SOX.  Except for indus-
trial coal combustion, none of the other sources studied is signifi-
cant, compared to coal-and oil-fired utilities.

     The pollutant coefficients for nitrogen oxides (NOX) are pre-
sented in Figure 14-5.  Pre-1976 coal-fired utilities emit signifi-
cantly more NOX per unit of output than any other source studied.
NSPS and revised NSPS requirements result in decreased NOX emis-
sions for new coal-fired utilities.  Comparable declines are expected
for new oil and gas utilities.22  jn contrast to particulates and
SOX, these expected emission reductions result from anticipated
future boiler modifications rather than the application of flue gas
control devices.  As a result, NOX emissions in the United States
are expected to increase in most high-coal-use scenarios.  Aside from
utilities, transportation sources are the only other major sources of
those studied.

     Transportation sources are the most significant contributors of
hydrocarbon emissions on a per unit consumption basis^ (Figure
14-6).  Hydrocarbon emission rates decline markedly between 1975 and
2000.  However, even after these decreases, the HC coefficients for
transportation sources are still one order of magnitude higher than
any of the other sources studied.  The major sources, other than
transportation, are oil shale retorting and electric utilities.
     - and gas-fired utilities constructed after 1984 must also
  comply with revised NSPS standards.  The High Growth Scenario
  assumes no such plants will be built.
23Since transportation does not produce energy, unlike utilities,
  transportation pollutant coefficients are on a per unit consumption
  basis rather than a per unit production basis.  Industrial coal
  combustion also is on a per unit consumption basis.

                                 745

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     By far, the most significant source of solid waste on a per unit
output basis is surface oil shale mining and retorting which gener-
ates approximately 164,000 tons of spent oil shale per trillion Btu
produced.  Coal mining is also a significant source of solid wastes,
both in aggregate and on a per unit output basis.24  Aside from
these mining-related technologies, coal-fired utilities generate the
most significant amount of solid wastes.  These wastes consist of
bottom ash, captured fly ash, and scrubber sludge.  The generation of
these wastes is directly related to the air pollution standards under
which the plants operate, as shown in Figure 14-7.  Both high- and
low-Btu coal gasification technologies also generate significant
quantities of solid waste on a per unit of energy output basis.  This
waste consists primarily of ash.

     Again it must be stressed that the coefficients presented here
represent the direct impacts of energy technologies only.  The
indirect effects, such as emissions from increased steel production
associated with switching from oil imports to oil shale, may be more
significant.  These considerably more complex emission patterns are
not directly examined in this report.

14.3.2  Major Energy-Related Pollutant Trends of the High Growth
        Scenario

     In Section 14.2.4, four major energy-related environmental prob-
lems were identified and discussed for the High Growth Scenario by
the year 2000:

     o  Continued high levels of sulfur oxide emissions

     o  Substantial growth in nitrogen oxide emission levels

     o  Enormous increases in solid waste generation

     o  Impacts associated with synthetic fuel production

Projected increases in the use of coal by utilities and industries
are largely responsible for the first two problems identified, and
they make a substantial contribution to the third.  Not only are the
production and use of synthetic fuels from oil shale projected to be
major sources of solid wastes by 2000, but the likely concentration
of these industries in the Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII)
would place a heavy environmental burden on this relatively pristine
area.
24See Chapter 10, Section 10.4.


                                 746

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     The Importance of Coal Use by Old Plants

     As discussed earlier, existing energy legislation, notably the
Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act of 1978 and the Energy Supply
and Environmental Coordination Act of 1974, limits the use of oil and
gas in new energy facilities and requires switching from oil to coal
in some older facilities.  New electric utilities and large indus-
trial boilers are to be prohibited from burning oil and gas.  Thus,
in utility installations, until solar and other renewable energy
sources become viable, the choice of fuel is either coal or uranium.

     The increased costs of burning coal in electric utilities, in
conjunction with the enforcement of environmental regulations, are
expected to prolong the operation of older oil and gas facilities
(not affected by ESECA) and, more importantly from an environmental
perspective, to prolong the use of older coal plants governed by less
stringent environmental standards.  The effects of this trend are
clearly demonstrated by the sulfur oxide emissions projections in the
High Growth Scenario.  It is projected that by 2000, pre-1976
electric utilities would account for 32 percent of national SOX
emissions and 63 percent of SOX emissions from all coal-fired
utilities.  This trend is even more pronounced under assumptions of
the Low Growth Scenario, which assumes a lower rate of retirement for
old coal plants; by 2000, pre-1976 electric utilities account for 40
percent of total national SOX emissions and 68 percent of SOX
emissions from all coal-fired utilities.

     These projected trends underscore an important point in evaluat-
ing the sulfur oxide trends associated with alternative energy
futures.  Forecasts of increased solar use or increased conservation
may reduce the demand for new coal-fired facilities in the United
States, but they will not affect the operation of these older, more
polluting plants.  Thus in a region such as the Great Lakes (Federal
Region V), where there are currently high SOX emission levels from
old coal-fired plants, a scenario assuming a different energy mix by
2000 probably would not have much impact on regional emissions
levels.  However, in a region such as the South Central (Federal
Region VI), where a large increase in new coal-fired capacity is pro-
jected, displacement of these plants by other energy sources could
greatly reduce projected increases in SOX emissions.
9 S
The lack of a more clear-cut distinction in the contribution of
  old coal-fired plants in these two scenarios is related to the
  assumption of retirement rates.  The differences in retirement
  rates assumed, though significant in the long term, are not quite
  as significant in the medium term.
                                 747

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     Hence, if SOX emissions are to be reduced substantially by
2000, especially in those regions which have high emission levels to-
day, the retirement of these old plants would have to be accelerated
or SIP standards tightened.   Because older plants are cheaper to
operate and because energy policy currently calls for expanded coal
use, accelerated retirement of these plants is not likely to occur.
Further, because the utilities converted from oil to coal under ESECA
were made subject to SIP standards rather than the more stringent
NSPS regulations, there is little indication that existing SIP regu-
lations will be tightened in the near future.

     Prolonged operation of old coal-fired utilities will result in a
trend in projected NOX emissions that is parallel to the SOX
trends.  Only limited NOX controls are assumed under NSPS stan-
dards, and NO  emissions from plants under SIP regulations are
assumed to be uncontrolled.   Therefore, as with SOX, old coal-fired
utilities are more polluting per unit of energy produced than newer,
more stringently controlled facilities.

     Impacts of New Coal Plants

     Because new coal-fired utilities would control sulfur oxide
emissions in accordance with NSPS regulations, they would emit less
SOX to the air but create more sludge from flue gas desulfurization
than older coal-fired plants.  In addition, controlling particulates
results in large volumes of ash, which also require disposal.  Thus,
with regard to solid waste, new coal-fired utilities can be expected
to generate more pollutants than old coal-fired plants.  Improper
disposal of these wastes could cause leaching of toxic and hazardous
substances into soils and ground and surface waters.  However, strict
compliance with future Resource Conservation and Recovery Act regula-
tions on the disposal of hazardous and special wastes should greatly
reduce environmental risks from these wastes.  This is particularly
important in the South Central Region (Federal Region VI), where
noncombustible solid wastes and industrial sludges from electric
utilities are expected to increase sharply between 1975 and 2000.

     Impacts of Synthetic Fuels

     Disposal of the enormous volume of solid waste associated with
surface oil shale retorting represents one of the largest environ-
mental uncertainties associated with future production of synfuels.
The richest oil shale deposits in the nation are concentrated in a
small area of northwestern Colorado, northeastern Utah, and south-
western Wyoming.  Under the High Growth Scenario, 1.5 billion tons of
oil shale waste would be generated annually in this area by the year
2000.
                                 748

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     Coal liquefaction and coal gasification are also projected to
generate substantial volumes of solid wastes in the Mountain Region
(Federal Region VIII) by 2000.  Further, the introduction of more
coal-fired utilities to this Region would increase ash and sludge
disposal requirements there.  While coal liquefaction and gasifica-
tion plants and coal-fired utilities are not apt to be concentrated
in as small a geographic area as the oil shale industry, the wastes
that they generate may create localized environmental problems in
coal regions.

     Oil shale retorts, coal liquefaction and gasification plants,
and coal-fired utilities place two additional environmental burdens
on Federal Region VIII.  The first is air emissions, particularly
SOX; in 1975, the Mountain Region had relatively low SOX levels.
The second environmental burden is water consumption.  The Mountain
Region has limited water availability—both physically and legally.
The water requirements for these processes may pose water-use con-
flicts as well as the threat of degradation of water quality.

     Although Federal Region VIII encompasses a vast expanse of land,
the location of prime oil shale and coal deposits tends to concen-
trate energy development in relatively few areas.  This concentration
will heighten local environmental impacts and threaten relatively
pristine areas.

14.3.3  Alternative Energy Scenarios

     For purposes of this analysis, the environmental trends asso-
ciated with the following energy scenarios are evaluated:

     o  High Conservation

     o  High Solar

     o  High Synfuels

     o  Low Nuclear

     High Conservation Scenario

     In the past, the availability of cheap energy in all forms has
encouraged energy consumption.   However, with the arrival of energy
shortages and high prices, the incentive for energy conservation has
increased dramatically.  A recent Council on Environmental Quality
(CEQ) report noted:
                                 749

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     Throughout our economy, substantial reductions in future
     energy requirements can be made without adopting measures
     which involve important changes in lifestyles.  These
     possibilities have been examined in considerable detail
     by others.  The results indicate that today's fuel con-
     sumption levels can be reduced by more than 40 percent
     through technical improvements which reduce the energy
     per unit of output.  Only modifications that are economic
     today on a life-cycle cost basis are incorporated in this
     estimate.26

     Based on this observation, CEQ has postulated a high-conserva-
tion energy future known as the "Good News" Scenario.  This scenario
is compared with the High Growth Scenario for the year 2000 in Table
14-3.  In the first three areas of energy supply, the CEQ scenario
calls for:

     o  A substantial decrease in oil and gas use between
        1977 and 2000, compared to a moderate increase
        under High Growth conditions.

     o  A dramatic increase in solar use, compared to
        only a small one in the SEAS scenario.

     o  A significant increase in nuclear energy, but
        not nearly as great as that of the High
        Growth Scenario.

                             TABLE 14-3
 COMPARISON OF CEQ GOOD NEWS SCENARIO AND SEAS HIGH GROWTH SCENARIO
                        (QUADS OF PRIMARY FUEL)
Energy
Supply
Oil and Gas
Solara
Nuclear
Coal
TOTAL

1977
56.5
4.2
2.7
14.1
77.5

CEQ Good News
40
19
8
18
85
2000
SEAS High Growth
60.2
7.0
13.2
44.0
124.4
aThe solar category includes all renewable energy sources.  The
 1977 total includes 1.8 quads from biomass, which is usually not
 included in national energy statistics.
2°Council on Enviornmental Quality, The Good News About Energy,
  U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 1979, p.9.

                                 750

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But the largest difference between the CEQ scenario and the High
Growth case is in projected levels of coal use.  The Good News Sce-
nario calls for only a 28 percent increase in coal supply between
1975 and 2000, whereas in the High Growth Scenario coal production is
expected to increase by over 210 percent.  The lower level would lead
to much lower environmental impacts from the coal fuel cycle under
the Good News Scenario by the end of the century.

     Solar energy is the only source from which the Good News Sce-
nario calls for more energy than the High Growth case by 2000.  Solar
technologies themselves produce virtually no pollutants, and there-
fore little direct environmental impact would be expected from such
an increase.  However, the indirect effects of solar development,
such as potentially increasing levels of toxic chemicals discharges
by solar component manufacturers, may be significant.^'

     The Good News Scenario would hold emissions of sulfur and nitro-
gen oxides close to their 1975 levels.  By assuming a reduced rate of
demand for energy, the energy future postulated by CEQ would lead to
the accelerated retirement of older, less efficient plants which
generally have higher rates of emission.  However, emission levels
would still be expected to remain near 1975 levels in the Great Lakes
Region (Federal Region V) and other areas where large numbers of old
coal-fired plants are located.

     However, the Good News Scenario would greatly offset expected
increases in SOX and NOx emissions in those regions which, under
the High Growth Scenario, are projected to have new coal-fired elec-
tric and industrial capacity.  In particular, under the Good News
Scenario,  the South Central Region (Federal Region VI)  and the Moun-
tain Region (Federal Region VIII) would not experience the substan-
tial growth in SOX and NOX emission levels projected under High
Growth conditions.  Similarly, the large increases in noncombustible
solid waste and industrial sludge generation associated with the
operation of new coal-fired facilities projected for these regions
would be offset by the conservation effort postulated by CEQ.

     Under CEQ projections, the demand for synfuels could virtually
be negated by conservation, depending upon the oil import level as-
sumed.   Clearly,  the coal production projection of the  Good News
     mentioned previously, an in-depth analysis of the indirect
  effects of solar energy is beyond the scope of this chapter.  The
  Technology Assessment Division of the Office of Technology Impacts
  in DOE is currently sponsoring such an analysis.  Results of this
  analysis are expected to be available in late 1980.

                                 751

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Scenario suggests little coal liquefaction and gasification activity.
Oil shale development, in all probability, would be greatly slowed by
lower demand for oil products.  Both these possibilities would
greatly alleviate the environmental impacts to Federal Region VIII
posed by the synfuels forecast under the High Growth Scenario.  With
the Good News Scenario, energy-related environmental impacts to that
region would be minimal compared to those postulated for High Growth.

     A strong conservation effort would have long-term beneficial
environmental impacts throughout the nation.  Conservation is the
most direct way to reduce energy-related pollutant levels.  While the
feasibility of meeting Good News Scenario energy projections is
subject to debate, its potential environmental benefits seem clear.

     High Solar Scenario

     Solar technologies can be used to produce a wide variety of fuel
and energy types.  Photovoltaic, solar thermal, hydroelectric, and
wind technologies can be used to convert biomass into electricity or
process heat, high-Btu gas, or liquid fuels such as gasohol.  Solar
heating and cooling units can be used to supplement residential and
commercial use of oil, gas, and electricity; and agricultural and
industrial process heat techniques can be used in place of oil,
natural gas, and coal in farming and industrial settings.

     Thus a scenario postulating high solar use can reduce the demand
for energy from oil, gas, coal, and nuclear sources.  And because
most solar-based systems in operation release only negligible amounts
of pollutants, a high penetration of solar technologies into the
energy market could have a significant impact on environmental
pollutant trends.

     The indirect pollutants—that is, those associated with manufac-
ture and construction of solar plants and equipment—are likely to be
substantial.  But these releases would come from the non-energy
industries (such as steel, cement, and plastics) stimulated by the
demand for solar hardware.  Since our present capability extends only
to those pollutants related to the operation and maintenance of the
energy facilities themselves, indirect pollutants are not discussed
here.

     In examining the potential environmental impacts of increased
solar use, it is important to assess for which fuels solar technolo-
gies can be substituted.  In the discussion that follows, the envi-
ronmental impact of solar use will be addressed by energy demand
sector.
                                752

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     Residential Solar Use.  Solar heating and cooling of buildings
 (SHACOB) systems offer a replacement for, or supplement to, home and
 commercial use of oil, gas, or electricity.  If electric heating and
 cooling of residences and businesses—fueled by conventional electric
 utilities—can be supplemented or replaced by SHACOB systems, the
 reduction in electricity demand will also reduce power plant emission
 levels.

     In 1975, residential and commercial fuel use accounted for 5
 percent of national sulfur oxide emissions.  While these emissions
 represent a relatively small portion of the national total and are
 not expected to become a significant portion of national SOX emis-
 sions by 2000, they may add to local ambient problems in urban areas.
 Increased use of SHACOB technologies could lead to reductions in
 these emissions.

     Wood stoves may become a growing source of residential heat as
 the cost of home heating rises.  Wood use may play a significant role
 in future residential fuel use patterns of the New England Region
 (Federal Region I) where trees are abundant and winters are severe.
 Because relatively little in the way of emission controls would be
 expected for home use of wood stoves, particulate emissions from
 residential wood use could be substantial in Federal Region I by
 2000.  Wood stoves are an example of a solar technology (biomass)
 that may lead to higher pollutant levels than conventional fuel use.

     Solar Electric Use.  Numerous technologies—including photo-
 voltaic, solar thermal, wind, and biomass—can be used to produce
 electricity.  These technologies can be deployed at central power
 stations or, in some cases, sited for residential or community use.
 Such deployment, however, is not expected until after 1990.  The
 operation of photovoltaic, solar thermal, and wind electric sources
 produces virtually no pollutants.  Thus if these solar electric
 sources are assumed to be substituted for new coal-fired utilities in
 the High Growth Scenario, a corresponding reduction can be expected
 in particulates, SOX, NOX, noncombustible solid wastes, and
 industrial sludges from new coal-fired facilities by 2000.

     Solar electric technologies do not have the siting flexibility
 that conventionally fueled utilities do.  For photovoltaics, the
amount of solar radiation in a given area strongly affects the size
requirement of collectors and the overall economics of the system;
 for example, a photovoltaic collector array suitable in California
would be inadequate in Maine.   Thus initial market penetration of
many solar technologies is likely to be in the Sunbelt.  Since in the
High Growth Scenario the South Central Region (Federal Region VI) is
projected to experience sharp increases in coal-fired electricity and
its associated pollutants, a high concentration of photovoltaic or

                                 753

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solar thermal technologies in Federal Region VI could help reduce
forecast increases in coal-related pollutant levels there.

     Biomass utilities, because they would burn fuel (wood, crop
residues, etc.) much as a conventional utility, would have higher pol-
lutant levels than would photovoltaic, solar thermal, or wind sys-
tems.  Biomass utilities would release more particulates per unit of
energy than would new coal-fired plants, but far less SOX and
NOX.  Thus the air quality of Federal Regions IV and X would proba-
bly not be adversely affected if biomass utilities were substituted
for some of the projected coal-fired capacity.

     Noncombustible solid waste and sludge levels from biomass would
also be lower.  If silvicultural plantations (growing trees for en-
ergy use) accompany these utilities, however, large amounts of agri-
cultural runoff may be part of the pollutant releases of the biomass
fuel cycle.  Silvicultural plantations are best suited to the moist
climates of the Southeast and Northwest Regions (Federal Regions IV
and X).

     Agricultural and Industrial Use.  Agricultural and industrial
process heat (AIPH) technologies can meet some of the demand for con-
ventional fuel use, but it is unlikely that such technologies can
displace significant amounts of future coal use by industry.  Again,
Sunbelt states are a primary location for AIPH technologies, and
industrial use of coal is expected to increase dramatically in the
South Central Region (Federal Region VI).  However, AIPH techniques
will probably be best suited to relatively small industrial applica-
tions through 2000, and some reduction in pollutants can be expected
due to their use.

     Agricultural and industrial energy use can also be supplemented
by small biomass conversion plants that could convert agricultural
and forestry wastes into gaseous and liquid fuels.  Gasohol use has
already begun in the farm belt and may increase substantially in the
Central Region (Federal Region VII) by 2000.  Pollutants from the
conversion processes themselves are not expected in large amounts,
although solid waste volumes may become substantial over time.  Com-
bustion of biomass-based fuels should be cleaner than that of fossil
fuels.

     Summary of Scenario Differences.  A high penetration of solar
technologies into the national energy mix would reduce national
levels of energy-related pollutants projected under High Growth con-
ditions.  Non-biomass technologies are generally free of pollutants
from direct operation and maintenance, and deployment of these tech-
nologies should reduce the energy-related pollutant levels projected
                                  754

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according to the High Growth Scenario.  This would be important in
regions expected to have high growth in SOX or NOX levels.  The
fuel cycles of the various biomass technologies do have pollutants
associated with them, and in some cases (e.g., solids runoff from
silvicultural plantations) they may be substantial.  However, if
biomass fuels were substituted for coal, their increased use under
the High Solar Scenario would reduce overall pollutant levels assumed
in the High Growth Scenario.

     High Synfuels Scenario

     On July 15, 1979, the President announced a new energy program;
its primary objective was to reduce oil imports by 50 percent by
1990.  To this end, one of the major initiatives proposed was devel-
opment of a synthetic fuels industry over the next 10 years.  The
President's goal is the production of 1.5 million barrels per day (3
quads) of oil from coal liquefaction and 0.4 million barrels per day
(0.8 quads) of oil from oil shale by 1990.28

     To assess the environmental consequences of this initiative, the
following assumptions are made for this analysis:

     o  The increased oil obtained from synfuels will replace
        oil obtained by imports.

     o  Synfuels development will be concentrated in three
        regions of the country, the Mountain Region (Fed-
        eral Region VIII), the Great Lakes Region (Federal
        Region V) and the Middle Atlantic Region (Federal
        Region III).

     o  By 1990, the President's goals will be achieved.  By 2000,
        coal liquefaction will triple from 1990 levels and oil shale
        production will be increased to 5 quads, the level projected
        in the High Growth Scenario.
 ^In March, 1980, Congress agreed to a $20 billion program to
  develop synthetic fuels.  A seven—member government corporation was
  established to allocate funds over the next 12 years.   The
  corporation must report to Congress in 1984,  after which it becomes
  eleigible to receive $68 billion in additional funds.   The
  corporation will provide loan and price guarantees as  incentives to
  private industry to produce synthetic fuels.   Under this program,
  production of synthetic fuels is expected to  range from 1.5 to 2.5
  million barrels/day (oil equivalent) by the mid-1990's.
                                 755

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     The assumption that liquefied coal and shale oil will replace
imported oil does not imply that the development of a synfuel indus-
try will displace domestic oil exploration and production.  Thus the
environmental pollutants associated with continental, offshore, and
Alaskan oil production will not be offset by synthetic fuel produc-
tion.

     Synthetic liquids are expected to be clean-burning fuels in com-
parison to the direct use of coal.  However, their emission charac-
teristics are not expected to be significantly different from those
of conventional oil.  Thus use of synfuels in place of imported oil
will not result in large changes in projected oil-use-related emis-
sions; however, the production of these fuels would cause increased
environmental impacts.

     As replacements for imported oil, synfuels would be used pri-
marily in residential and commercial, industrial, and transportation
applications.  At present, it does not appear likely that electric
utilities would use synthetic liquid fuels.  Therefore, while they
might displace some coal from industrial applications, synfuels would
not have a large impact on the electric utilities' use of coal and
its associated pollutant releases.

     The production of synfuels in the West has been supported by
several documents.  A recent analysis was presented by the U.S.
Department of Energy's Assistant Secretary for Environment to
an interagency task force studying the accelerated deployment of
commercial-size synthetic liquid fuel plants.^"  This document
focused upon constraints to siting synfuel plants.  Based upon coal
reserves, water availability, and air pollution constraints, this
study concluded that the most likely sites for liquefaction plants
would be in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North Dakota (all in the
Mountain Region [Federal Region VIII]); West Virginia (in the Middle
Atlantic Region [Federal Region III]); and Illinois (in the Great
Lakes Region [Federal Region V]).  Oil shale activity, concentrated
where the most economic oil shale reserves are located, would be in
Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming (also all in the Mountain Region [Federal
Region VIII]).

     As previously discussed, a major oil shale development and coal
liquefaction program would result in significant environmental impact
to the Mountain Region.  The problems in attempting to quantify most
environmental impacts make it difficult to assess whether the poten-
tial environmental consequences of synthetic fuel development are too
severe to support a program of this magnitude.
  U.S. Department of Energy, Assistant Secretary for Environment,
  Office of Technology Impacts, Environmental Analysis of Synthetic
  Liquid Fuels. July 12, 1979.
                                  756

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     The Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) requirements
of the Clean Air Act Amendments may conflict with the High Synfuels
Scenario in this region.  According to the Department of Energy, this
conflict is not likely to occur with the levels projected for
1990.30  However, a tripling of synfuels activity by 2000 could use
up the allowable PSD increments in many areas of Federal Region VIII.
The DOE environmental analysis cited 41 counties in the United States
that would not be constrained by PSD, water, or coal reserves.  A
recent Oil Shale Environmental Impact Statement-^ * indicated that
production levels of 2 million barrels per day could result in
violations of Class II regulations (the Clean Air Act as amended in
1977).

     Air quality would not be the only important environmental impact
of a high synfuels scenario.  Others involve water availability, con-
tainment of toxic substances, increased coal mining, and contamina-
tion of surface and ground water.  In the long term, the increased
release of C02 may be a factor.

     The major uncertainty with oil shale is whether spent shale
waste can be disposed of without causing unacceptable environmental
damage.  This problem, as it relates to water, is discussed in detail
in Chapter 6.  The problem is that huge volumes of spent shale are
forecast under both the High Growth and High Synfuels Scenarios.
These wastes contain toxic substances, and if wastes are disposed of
improperly, these substances can contaminate surface and ground
water.  Development of in situ oil shale technology would alleviate
much of the solid waste problem.  However, in situ oil shale retort-
ing could contaminate ground water.

     The environmental problems associated with coal liquefaction are
different from those associated with oil shale.  Coal liquefaction
problems primarily involve waste disposal, worker safety, and safe
transportation and handling.  The wastes associated with coal liquids
contain tars, some of which contain toxic and carcinogenic materials.
Isolating these toxic wastes and preventing the materials from enter-
ing the ground water are important environmental requirements.  The
liquid itself may also contain toxic and carcinogenic materials that
may be released when the liquid is combusted.

     Water availability probably would not be a constraint on the
projected 1990 levels of coal liquefaction and oil shale.  This
30u.S. Department of Energy, Assistant Secretary for Environment,
  Office of Technology Impacts, Environmental Analysis of Synthetic
  Liquid Fuels. July 12, 1979.
31-U.S. Department of Energy, Programmatic Oil Shale Environmental
  Impact Statement, Draft, March 1979.

                                  757

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conclusion was reached in several recent water assessment studies.
An assessment of synthetic fuels by the Energy Research and Develop-
ment Administration in 1976 indicated that the upper Missouri River
could support up to 6 million barrels per day of synthetic fuels.32
A recent Colorado water assessment indicated that the region could
supply enough water for a 1.3 million barrel per day industry.3-*

     The overall assessment is that by 1990, Federal Region VIII
could probably absorb the amount of oil shale processing and coal
liquefaction planned in these scenarios.  However, the levels pre-
dicted for 2000 may produce conflicts for water resources and air
quality.  These conflicts are more probable for surface oil shale
retorting than for coal liquefaction.

     Thus, while a synthetic fuels industry would offer the United
States a measure of energy independence, its environmental impacts
are likely to be significant.  The SEAS High Growth Scenario assumes
that enough emphasis will be placed upon synthetic fuel development
(especially oil shale) to pose potentially serious environmental
problems in the Mountain Region by 2000.  The emphasis in this sce-
nario is on oil shale rather than coal synthetic fuels.  A High Syn-
fuels Scenario such as the one discussed here forecasts still larger
potential environmental impacts, accompanied by substantial reduction
of foreign oil imports.

     Low Nuclear Scenario

     Following the Three Mile Island accident, it was thought possi-
ble that no new nuc'lear plants would come on line after 1990.  DOE's
Assistant Secretary for Policy and Evaluation (P&E) proposed such a
scenario and presented the results in a recent Second National Energy
Plan published by the Department of Energy.34  Since the P&E base
case scenario is similar to the SEAS High Growth Scenario, the
changes in pollutant levels forecast by P&E as a result of a low
nuclear power assumption can be compared to High Growth Scenario as
well.
32£nergy Research and Development Administration, Synthetic Liquid
  Fuels Development:  Assessment of Critical Factors, Volume III,
,,ERDA 76-129/3, May 1977.
•"Water Resources Council, Water Resource Assessment for Upper
  Colorado River Basin, Section 13(a), Draft, undated.  Also, see
  Chapter 4 of White, I.L. et al., Energy from the West:  Policy
  Analysis Report, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
  Energy Minerals and Industry, Washington, D.C., 1979.  This study
  concludes that high levels of energy development could contribute
  to an overall water shortage in the Upper Colorado River Basin by
  2000.
    .S. Department of Energy, National Energy Plan II, Appendix:
  Environmental Trends and Impacts, May 1979.

                                  758

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     The P&E Low Nuclear Scenario assumes a 7-quad decrease in nucle-
ar energy by 2000 as a result of a postulated nuclear moratorium.
This decrease in energy supply is assumed to be offset by a reduction
in demand (3 quads), and increases in coal use (2 quads), oil imports
(1 quad), and biomass, geothermal, and hydroelectric power (1 quad).

     The Department of Energy evaluated the environmental impacts of
such a moratorium in comparison to the P&E base case scenario as part
of its analysis of the Second National Energy Plan.-"  The assumed
nuclear moratorium is projected to result in the following differen-
ces in pollutant levels nationally (in comparison to the base case):

     o  Sulfur oxides and nitrogen oxides increase
        2.47 percent

     o  Particulates increase 0.6 percent

     o  Sludge increases 5.0 percent

     o  Noncombustible solid waste increases 3.3 percent

     o  Radioactive waste burial is reduced 43 percent

     The environmental benefits associated with a nuclear moratorium
scenario would be a reduction in the steady-state release of radioac-
tive material and a reduction in radioactive wastes requiring burial.
In addition, the risks of a nuclear accident would be reduced.  Envi-
ronmental costs of a nuclear moratorium would primarily be small
increases in sulfur oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions and sludge
generation.   A nuclear moratorium could result in some regional
shortages in electric capacity, which could in turn cause delay in
retiring older fossil fuel utilities.  As these older plants are gen-
erally more polluting than new coal-fired utilities, the increases in
SOX and NOX emissions may be larger than those projected above.
However, in such an event, projected sludge generation levels would
decline because these plants are not equipped with flue gas scrub-
bers.

     Projected increases in nuclear energy between 1990 and 2000 in
the High Growth Scenario are concentrated in the Southeast and Great
Lakes Regions (Federal Regions IV and V).  Numerous nonattainment
areas for S02 are located in the northern parts of Federal Region
IV and in the states of Ohio and Illinois in Federal Region V.
Reductions in SOX levels projected in these regions between 1975
and 2000 result in part from the use of nuclear power plants rather
than coal to generate electricity.
     . Department of Energy, National Energy Plan II, Appendix;
   Environmental Trends and Impacts, May 1979.

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However, these reductions are not expected to be sufficient to al-
leviate the sulfate transport and visibility problems caused by the
emissions.  Replacing projected nuclear reactors with coal-fired
utilities in these regions would result in a 5 percent increase in
sulfur oxide emission levels there by 2000.  Thus a nuclear morator-
ium would result in increased air pollutant emission levels in those
areas where coal is used to make up reductions in electric capacity,
either through the prolonged operation of older plants or the con-
struction of new coal-fired utilities.

14.4  SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

     This limited examination of energy-related pollution trends
projected under SEAS High Growth conditions identifies four major
environmental problems for the year 2000:

     o  Continued high levels of sulfur oxide emissions

     o  Substantial growth in nitrogen oxide emission levels

     o  Enormous increases in solid waste generation

     o  Impacts associated with synthetic fuel production

     Projected increases in coal use by utilities and industry are
largely responsible for the first two problems identified and make a
substantial contribution to the third.  The production and use of syn-
thetic fuel from coal and oil shale are projected to be major sources
of solid wastes by 2000; in addition, the likely concentration of the
industries in the Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII) would place a
heavy environmental burden on this relatively pristine area.

14.4.1  Pollutant Effects of Energy-Related Changes

     As utilities and industry increase their use of coal, regions
whose primary energy sources have been oil and gas are expected to ex-
perience sharp increases in sulfur oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions
and noncombustible solid waste and sludge generation—for example,
the South Central Region (Federal Region VI).  In those areas where
coal use (and consequently SOX and NOX levels) are currently
high, some reduction in emission levels are expected as older, more
polluting plants are retired and newer, more stringently controlled
plants are bought on-line—for example, the Great Lakes Region
(Federal Region V).  However, these older plants are expected to
remain a significant source of pollution through 2000.  The environ-
mental controls (electrostatic precipitators and flue gas scrubbers)
associated with newer plants are projected to substantially reduce
plant air emissions, but to lead to large increases in solid waste
volumes.
                                 760

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     The solid waste volumes associated with the surface retorting of
oil shale are likely to pose severe environmental problems in the
relatively small areas in which oil shale development is expected to
take place.  In addition, the development of liquefaction and gasifi-
cation technologies in the Mountain Region (Federal Region VIII) will
place further demands on the region's air quality, water availabil-
ity, and solid waste disposal capabilities.

     The energy-related environmental trends of the SEAS High Growth
Scenario underscore the centrality of coal production and use to both
future energy supply and energy-related environmental impacts.  Dif-
ferent assumptions for future energy mixes will result in different
projected environmental pollutant patterns, depending on the extent
to which coal is used.  In scenarios in which new coal-fired plants
are replaced by other forms of energy (e.g., solar), reduced levels
of SOX, NOX, and industrial sludge can be expected, particular-
ly in those regions where oil and gas have been the predominant
fuels.

14.4.2  Timeframe for Environmental Impacts

     Because one important facet of U.S. energy policy is to promote
the domestic production of energy and reduce the importation of oil,
production and use of coal are likely to increase substantially
beginning in the 1980s.  Compliance with existing environmental regu-
lations should minimize, but will not eliminate, the environmental
impacts associated with this energy transition.

     Alternative energy strategies will have differing impacts on en-
ergy and environmental goals.  Conservation measures and the use of
solar technologies appear to be the most environmentally benign
energy strategies of those examined here.  However, many solar tech-
nologies will not make a significant contribution to energy supply by
2000 without a strong national program to promote solar energy use
and resolve the technical, institutional, and economic barriers to
solar development.  Expanded residential use of solar devices can be
expected within the decade, but advanced solar technologies will not
be widely used until after 1990.

     The President's recent emphasis on synthetic fuel development to
reduce imported oil levels is expected to lead to intensive develop-
ment of oil shale and coal liquefaction and gasification technologies
for operation in the late 1980s and early 1990s, along with develop-
ment of solar technologies.

     A nuclear moratorium would encourage importation of foreign oil,
use of coal, and a decrease in the rate of energy demand.  While the
conservation projected along with a nuclear moratorium would have
                                 761

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environmental benefits, the increased use of coal would exacerbate
coal-related environmental problems.  However, the problems of radio-
active waste disposal and the possiblity of nuclear accidents would
be greatly reduced by a moratorium on reactor construction and
operation.

14.4.3  Energy and Environmental Goals

     The degree to which energy policy and environmental protection
goals conflict with one another has been an area of increasing debate
in recent years.  This chapter has emphasized that energy production
and use are likely to be an increasing source of environmental pollu-
tion through the end of the century.  It is clear that in achieving
energy independence, we must pay an environmental price.  The devel-
opment of programs that can mediate national energy and environmental
goals is one of the challenges of the 1980s.
                                 762

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                          APPENDIX A
                     DESCRIPTION OF SEAS
A.I.I  HOW SEAS WORKS

     The logic of the SEAS model is relatively simple:  the economic
and energy modules simulate national activity levels for over 500
SEAS sectors; the regionalization module disaggregates these data to
one of several possible geographic subdivisions; and the environmen-
tal modules use data on emission coefficients, control strategies,
and economic and energy activity levels to calculate regional emis-
sions and resource requirements.

     SEAS logic is illustrated in Figure A-l.  Rectangles denote SEAS
modules, arrows track information flows, and ovals indicate assump-
tions which must be entered into the model.  Table A-l presents the
kinds of input assumptions which are the basis for SEAS simulations.
The following sections describe the various modules in some detail.

A. 1.2  ECONOMIC MODULES

     SEAS uses three economic modules:   INFORUM, INSIDE, and ABATE.
Adapted from a model developed by the University of Maryland, INFORUM
is a 185 sector input-output formulation of the U.S. economy that em-
ploys a set of dynamic, time-dependent interindustry coefficients and
exogenously specified values for labor force participation, tar-
get unemployment rates, and average levels of per capita disposable
income as the basis for its projections of the value of goods pro-
duced in specific sectors of the economy.   Table A-2 indicates the
type of information which can be projected by INFORUM.   The 185
INFORUM economic sectors are consistent with the standard industrial
classification (SIC) code developed by the Department of Commerce.

     The INSIDE module further disaggregates the 185 INFORUM economic
sectors into roughly 350 process and product sectors.  For example,
INFORUM has one sector for chemicals and INSIDE contains data on 40
different chemicals.   This disaggregation is performed only when a
process is significant in terms of pollution generation or energy
consumption.   The ABATE module calculates  the capital and operating
and maintenance (O&M) costs associated  with pollution abatement
strategies.

     An important feature of the economic  modules is their interac-
tion.   After  a preliminary economic projection has been made, the
main economic modules, INFORUM/INSIDE,  are calibrated to the energy
strategy,  the energy investments,  and the  pollution investments
generated  by the ESNS (see next section),  ENERGY INVESTMENT, and AB-
ATE modules.  Thus,  if parameters in these  modules are altered,  so are
the economic  projections and the industry  outputs from non-energy

                                 763

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              ASSUMPTIONS
              • ECONOMIC
                DEMOGRAPHIC
              • ENERGY SUPPLY
                STRATEGY
            Interindustry
            Input/Output
            Economic  Module
            (INFORUM)
                   Disaggregation
          Regional
       Disaggregation
          (REGION)
Transportation
    (TRANS)
                                                        Feedback To
                                                     +• Energy Demand
                                                         Modules
       FIGURE A-1
SEAS FLOW DIAGRAM
               764

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                              TABLE A-l
                   TYPICAL SEAS INPUT ASSUMPTIONS
                        (Comprehensive mode)
Energy
Economics
Environment
o  Market penetration of energy technologies
o  Regional location of energy technologies
o  Efficiencies of energy supply technologies
o  Depreciation of existing energy supply
   technologies
o  Fuel switching capabilities
o  Transportation regulations

o  GNP
o  Population
o  Unemployment
o  Work force
o  Composition of investment
o  Technology assumptions
o  Energy investment costs

o  Emissions regulations
o  Degree of compliance
o  New legislation
o  Removal efficiencies
o  Process change
                              TABLE A-2
              ECONOMIC INFORMATION PROVIDED BY 'INFORUM
o  Labor Force
o  Gross National Product0
o  Disposable Income
o  Final Demands
                                    Personal consumption
                                    Government purchases
                                    Capital investment
                                    Construction
                                    Inventory changes
                                    Net imports
o  Sector Productivity
o  Labor Requirements by Sector
o  Sector Outputs (million of dollars)
Depending upon how the model is used, some of these variables will
 be specified by the user.
                                 765

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sectors of the economy.  The final output of the SEAS energy and ec-
onomic modules is a forecast to the year 2000 of production levels in
over 500 sectors of the economy.  Examples of SEAS energy and non-
energy sectors appear in Figure A-2.

A. 1.3  ENERGY MODULES

     Analysis of energy strategies takes place after an initial eco-
nomic projection has been made.  Three demand modules (of industrial,
transportation, and residential/commercial energy users) use these
output estimates in conjunction with fuel-specific energy coeffi-
cients to calculate fuel demand in physical units (Btu) for a given
year.  These modules contain parameters that reflect user assumptions
about the level of conservation measure implementation, the impacts
of fuel prices on demand, and the prevailing policy toward fuel sub-
stitution.  The demand projections are translated into requirements
for resource extraction through the Energy System Network Simulator
(ESNS), an accounting framework that presents the technological
alternatives that exist at each processing step in the supply struc-
ture.  Once a supply strategy has been selected by the user, the en-
ergy investment model estimates the amount and mix of capital goods
required to construct the necessary additions to energy production
capacity.  This forecast is then fed back into INFORUM and modifies
the initial economic projections.

A.1.4  REGIONALIZATION MODULES

     The REGION module distributes energy and economic activities to
a number of geographic subdivisions.  The most commonly used regions
include:

     o  Federal Regions

     o  States

     o  Air Quality Control Regions (AQCRs)

     o  Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs)

     o  Aggregated Sub-Areas (ASAs)

Each subdivision is an aggregate of individual counties.  The ELEC-
TRIC UTILITIES module, the INDUSTRIAL COMBUSTION module, and the COAL
MINING module were developed to improve the regional distribution of
energy activities.  Even though they are classified as energy mod-
ules, their primary function is regionalization.
                                 766

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 AN  EXAMPLE OF A SEAS ENERGY SECTOR




• Non-Electric  Industrial  Energy Use

  -  Coal-Burning Plants

     • Existing Plants
     • Future Plants
        - Future Plants Under SIP Standards
        - Future Plants Under BACT Standards
        - Future Plants Under NSPS Standards

  -  Oil-Burning Plants, Etc.
 EXAMPLE  OF A SEAS  NON-ENERGY  SECTOR




• Aluminum Production

      - Bauxite Refining

      - Aluminum

        • Primary

            • Hall-Heroult Process

               -Pre-Baked Anode

               -Horizontal Soderberg

               -Vertical Soderberg

            • Alcoa Process

        • Secondary
                FIGURE A-2
      EXAMPLES OF SEAS SECTORS

                   767

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A.1.5  ENVIRONMENTAL MODULES

     SEAS uses four environmental modules:  the RESGEN module, which
calculates point source emissions; the TRANS (transportation) and
LAND USE modules, which calculate non-point source discharges; and
the ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY INDICATOR module, which translates sulfur
oxide and particulate emissions data into several environmental
quality indicators.

     RESGEN is the primary environmental module of SEAS.   It calcu-
lates the environmental pollution and the resource consumption asso-
ciated with various levels of energy/economic activity and pollution
abatement.  The module estimates how much pollution would be gener-
ated by production processes operating without environmental controls
(gross pollution).  As a result of environmental regulations, pollu-
tion controls are added to industrial processes and "net" pollution
is calculated.  Net pollution is thus a function of the activity
level, the gross pollution produced and the pollution control stra-
tegy.  Furthermore, the emissions "captured" by pollution control
devices must be disposed of; so SEAS keeps track of these "secondary
residuals," and can estimate how much solid waste would result from a
reduction in particulate emissions.  A schematic of the basic RESGEN
methodology is presented in Figure A-3.

     The three factors which determine the extent of environmental
pollution and the demand for natural resource are:  economic/energy
activity levels, gross emissions factors, and the degree of pollution
control.  Thus, emission rates for net and secondary pollutants are
sensitive to these policy strategies.

     The LAND USE and TRANS modules account for non-point source pol-
lution.  They also are sensitive to environmental regulations.  The
TRANS module can be used to evaluate the impacts of alternative re-
gulations and changes in the mix of transportation
modes on emissions from this sector.

     The final environmental module is the ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
INDICATOR module, which presents particulates and sulfur oxide emis-
sions data in terms of:

     o  Emissions per square mile

     o  Average annual ambient concentrations

     o  Emissions per cubic meter of ventilation flow

     o  High population densities and concentrations
                                 768

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• Basic Methodology:
   - for each pollutant for each sector
     the following steps are performed:
      Economic Output for Sector
           (from INFORUM)
Pollution Coefficient*
Amount
Unit of




of Pollutant (tons)
Output




/$io6
12
10 Btu
6
1 10 Tons





Gross
Residual
Gross
Residual
                           Removal Efficiency*
Fraction of Waste*
  Load Treated
Captured Residual
Gross
Residual
                                                         Captured Residual
                                                                                     Net Residual Released
   *Data in RESGEN data base for each  pollutant Identified for  each  sector.
                                               FIGURE A-3
                                                 RESGEN

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A.2.1  THE SEAS DATA BASE

     SEAS modules use an extensive data base containing detailed
environmental, energy, and economic .information.   Every effort is
made to maintain current data through frequent updating and
validation.  The many types of information are presented in a
consistent manner with much of the information keyed to specific
industrial activities. As a result, the SEAS data base is now
considered a resource in its own right.

     The more than 50 data files that comprise the SEAS data base
contain information from numerous government reports and documents by
and communication with university personnel, government laboratories
and contractors, and various industry trade associations.  Government
reports include, for example, FPC data on powerplant locations and
capacities, DOE studies of energy technology costs and emissions and
effluents, EPA effluent limitations guidelines development documents,
and Bureau of the Census and other Department of  Commerce publica-
tions and data bases.  The following sections describe the types of
information in some of these data files.

A. 2.2  ENVIRONMENTAL DATA

     The environmental data base contains information on the release
and control of a comprehensive range of environmental pollutants
associated with industrial activity throughout the economy.  Detailed
information is provided on each pollutant released to air, water, or
land by each manufacturing and industrial sector.  These data relate
pollution production to industrial activity and are called pollution
coefficients.  In addition, information concerning abatement stan-
dards is provided for each pollutant on an industry or process-speci-
fic basis, as appropriate.  These data describe not only criteria air
and water pollutants, but various toxic substances and trace elements
released to air and water.  Data are also included concerning numer-
ous types of solid waste, including radioactive wastes, which are
released to air or water.

     In addition, other environmental information is provided for
various industries and processes including land use, water use
(including water consumption), and several indices of occupational
hazard (e.g. , deaths, injuries) associated with various activities.
Further, the data base contains information on the production of
secondary residuals, such as scrubber sludge, that are produced by
environmental control processes.

     An important characteristic of the environmental data base
is  that the data have been disaggregated to that level of detail
necessary to reflect significant differences in the polluting

                                 770

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characteristics of alternative manufacturing processes.  For example,
different data are provided for electric arc and open hearth steel
production.  In the nuclear fuel cycle, separate environmental data
are provided for surface and underground uranium mining, milling, and
enrichment.

     The environmental data base is also designed to store informa-
tion on regional variations in the pollution characteristics of vari-
ous industries.  Thus, surface coal mining in Pennsylvania is charac-
terized by different pollutant releases than coal mining in Wyoming.
In addition, different regulatory standards imposed in different
states are included in the data base.

A.2.3  CAPITAL AND OPERATING COST DATA

     This data base provides detailed information on the capital and
operating expenditures associated with industrial efforts to control
pollution.  It also contains information on the unit capital expendi-
tures required to construct various energy facilities.  As with the
environmental data base, energy cost data are provided in great de-
tail for each phase of an energy fuel cycle and for alternative pro-
cesses in each phase of a fuel cycle.

A.2.4  REGIONALIZATION OF INDUSTRIAL AND ENERGY ACTIVITY

     An important part of the SEAS data base provides detailed infor-
mation on the current and anticipated locations of all industrial and
energy-related activities.  This information is provided at the coun-
ty level, in the form of county shares (fractions) of total activity.
For selected energy industries, however, auxiliary files specify a
sequence of individual facilities that will come on line as energy
demand grows.

A.2.5  ADDITIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS

     This appendix has described major components of the comprehen-
sive SEAS data base.  Examples of miscellaneous additional data
included in the SEAS data base are:  OBERS forecasts of future demo-
graphic trends, soil loss data for agricultural land use, compli-
ance data and schedules for pollution standards, and industrial
energy consumption and conservation potential factors.

     One example of data which are actually part of the system is
information on current and projected interindustry transactions re-
flecting material substitutions over time.  In addition, data are
provided on anticipated technological change from one process to
another within a particular sector, and on changes in consumption and
transportation patterns.  Data are also provided on process losses in

                                  771

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various stages of energy fuel cycles.  Most of these data sets can be
modified by the user, but specific values are stored in the data base
for use in the event that no changes are made.
                                  772

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                          APPENDIX B
                    ADDED DETAIL ON SEAS
                    SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS
     This appendix expands the description of  SEAS  scenarios pre-
sented in Chapter 2.  The order of the discussion is  the  same:  eco-
nomics and population, energy supply and  demand,  and  environmental
regulations.

B.I.I  GROWTH IN THE ECONOMY AND POPULATION

     The growth in Gross National Product (GNP) assumed in  both
scenarios is shown in Table B-l.   The difference  between  GNP in the
two scenarios in 2000, based on the assumed average growth  rates of
3.5 percent and 2.6 percent per year, is  $565  billion (1971 dollars).
Both of the growth rates are actually averages of two assumed growth
rates, one for the 1975 to 1985 period, and a  slightly lower rate for
the 1985 to 2000 period.  Examination of  the individual components of
GNP shows that most of the GNP difference arises  from changes in per-
sonal consumption expenditures (see Table B-2).   Some additional dif-
ference arises from growth in government  purchases, which tends to
reflect differences in population.

     Population increases slightly more in the High Growth  Scenario
than in the Low Growth Scenario as economic growth  was assumed to
affect growth in population.  The growth  rates, an  average  0.8 per-
cent per year in the High Growth Scenario and  0.6 percent in the Low
Growth Scenario, were selected from a series of U.S.  Bureau of the
Census projections containing different fertility assumptions.^  The
effect of the differences in rate of increase  on  projections of popu-
lation in 2000 is shown in Table B-3.  The population projections for
2000 would differ by about 15 million persons, or about 5 percent of
the High Growth Scenario population in 2000.

     Many of the most interesting shifts  in pollutant generation
projected by SEAS occur among the Federal Regions.  Some  portion of
these shifts can be attributed to interregional shifts in population.
Population is assumed to increase during  1975  to  2000 in both sce-
narios in all regions, but the portions of the national total repre-
sented by each region change to some extent..  Primarily the changes
 U.S. Bureau of the Census,  Current  Population Reports, Series
 P-25, No. 310, Series  2 and 3,  Projections of Total Population,
 1977.

                                 773

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                                    TABLE B-l
                           ECONOMIC GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
                                           Gross National Product
                                          (Billions of 1971 Dollars)




Year
1975
1985
1990
2000
Average Annual Growth,
Percent, 1975-2000
High Growth
1,141
1,745
2,022
2,734
3.5
Low Growth
l,141a
1,531
1,737
2,169
2.6
         Reconciled with High Growth estimate for 1975.
                                     TABLE B-2
                       COMPONENTS  OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
                            (Billions of 1971 Dollars)
Components of GNP

Personal Consumption
    Expenditures

Gross Private Domestic
      Investment

Net Exports

Government Purchases
 745
                                       High Growth
                                      Low Growth
1975    1985    1990    2000     1985    1990    2000
1,123   1,314   1,847
947
1,078   1,369
132
14
251
276
18
330
315
22
373
400
24
463
265
31
315
305
39
361
383
56
330
                                        774

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                              TABLE  B-3
                      MAJOR DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS
                                High Growth            Low Growth

                      1975     1985   1990   2000     1985   1990   2000
Population
(millions)             213      234     245     262      228     236     245

Employment
(millions)              95      114     119     131      105     110     122

Unemployment Rate
     (percent)          8.5      4.7     4.7     4.7      5.5     5.0     4.5
 reflect  an assumed  shift  in  population growth  to  the  Southeast,  South
 Central, and West Regions  (Federal Regions  IV, VI, and  IX).   Slight
 relative declines occur in the  fraction  of  the total  represented by
 the  other  regions.  While  these assumed  shifts are not  extreme,  more
 than one quarter of the 50 million person increase in the High Growth
 Scenario between 1975 and  2000  occurs in the Southeast  Region (Feder-
 al Region  IV)  and an additional 15 percent  each occurs  in the South
 Central and West Regions  (Federal Regions VI and  IX).   Table  B-4 pro-
 vides the  regional  population estimates.

 B.I.2 ENERGY  SUPPLY AND  DEMAND

      Total energy supply  is  assumed  to expand  at  2.1  percent  per year
 under High Growth conditions and  1.5 percent per  year in the  Low
 Growth Scenario.  Figure  B-l shows the assumed growth of energy  sup-
 ply  and  the distribution  by  energy source for  the High  and  Low Growth
 Scenarios. In both scenarios,  most  of the  growth in  energy supply
 between  1975 and 2000 would  be  achieved  by  burning coal, increasing
 nuclear  electricity generation, and  recovering oil from western  oil
 shales.  Assumed quantities  are presented in Table B-5.

      In  the High Growth Scenario, coal would expand its share of U.S.
•energy supply  from  22 percent in  1975 to 35 percent in  2000 (growth
 of 28 quads).   Less rapid growth of coal supply  is assumed
 ^Quad  = 1  quadrillion  Btu.   One  quad  is  the energy  equivalent  of
  more  than 170 million barrels of  crude  oil,  or more  than  32 million
  tons  of eastern  coal  (moisture- and  ash-free).   Total  U.S. energy
  consumption in 1975 was  about 50  quads  (about 73 quads input).

                                 775

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                                                  TABLE B-4
                                      REGIONAL POPULATION DISTRIBUTION
                                             1975,  1985,  and 2000
                                                        High Growth
Low Growth
1975 Population
Federal Region (millions)
I.
II.
III.
IV.
v.
VI.
VII.
VIII.
IX.
X.
New England
New York-New Jersey
Middle Atlantic
Southeast
Great Lakes
South Central
Central
Mountain
West
Northwest
Total3
12
25
24
35
45
22
11
6
25
7
213
1985 Population
(millions)
13
26
26
41
48
25
12
7
28
8
234
2000 Population
(millions)
14
27
28
48
50
30
12
8
32
9
262
1985 Population
(millions)
13
26
25
40
47
24
12
7
28
8
228
2000 Population
(millions)
14
27
27
44
49
27
12
7
30
8
245
Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.

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  125
SM

a.
   100
   75
   5C
   25
            HIGH GROWTH
Other

Nuclear


Gas



Oil
(Oil Imports)


Coal
           1975
                            1985
                                                      2000
                                                        Other
                                                        Nuclear

                                                        Gas
                                                        Oil
                                                        (Oil Imports)

                                                        Coal
           1975
                            1985
                                                      2000
                         FIGURE B-1
               ENERGY SUPPLY ASSUMPTIONS
                                777

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                               TABLE  B-5
                     ENERGY SUPPLY  ASSUMPTIONS
                                           Supply in 2000  (1015  Btu)

Coal Production
Strip mining
Underground raining
Total coal
Oil Production
Onshore
Offshore
Oil shale
Alaskan
(Oil imports)
Total domestic
Natural Gas Production
Onshore
Offshore
Alaskan
Biomass
(Gas Imports)
Total domestic
Nuclear3
Hydroelectric3
Otherb
Total Energy Supplyc
1975

8.5
7.6
16.1

17.1
2.8
0.0
0.4
(12.7)
20.3

14.3
4.1
0.1
0.0
(1.0)
18.5
1.8
2.6
0.0
73
High Growth

20.7
23.3
44.0

13.4
3.9
5.4
6.2
(13.2)
28.9

10.8
3.1
2.9
0.05
(1.2)
16.9
13.2
3.2
3.8
124
Low Growth

17.0
15.7
32.7

13.4
4.0
2.2
6.0
(9.4)
25.6

12.6
3.2
2.2
0.05
(2.7)
18.1
10.6
3.2
2.4
105
Calculated  as electricity demand divided by 0.34,  in order  to
 express energy supply on a basis equivalent to fossil fuel  supplies.
 Actual nuclear output is 0.34 times the listed supply estimates.

"Supply of  fossil fuels displaced by solar,  geothermal,  and  bioinass
 (electric)  sources.

cRounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                  778

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in the Low Growth Scenario, in which coal production would provide 31
percent of the U.S. energy supply by 2000.

     Nuclear energy production is assumed to grow by a factor of
seven in the High Growth Scenario and six in the Low Growth Scenario,
from 1.8 quads in 1975 to 13.2 quads and 10.6 quads in 2000, respec-
tively.-*  These sharp increases are consistent with actual growth
in nuclear production since 1975.  In August 1978, net nuclear gener-
ating capacity operating in the United States was reported at almost
50,000 megawatts;^ converted to equivalent input, this represents
about 3 quads per year on-line in 1978, which agrees closely with the
assumed rates of increase shown in Figure B-l.  A total of 9.2 quads
of nuclear capacity (input equivalent) was reported to be either
operating or under construction in mid-1978.

     There is a marked difference between the scenarios on oil im-
ports.  In the Low Growth Scenario, the price of crude oil is assumed
to rise from a 1975 price of $11.60 per barrel to $59.30 per barrel
in 1985 and remain steady thereafter.  It is also assumed that this
high price will stimulate domestic oil production, and that imports
of oil would decrease from 12.7 quads in 1975 to 9.4 quads in 2000.

     Oil prices are assumed to rise less, to $39.53 per barrel, by
1985 in the High Growth Scenario.  This would have a less restric-
tive effect on the economy than the higher oil price in the Low
Growth Scenario, with the result that consumption of both domestic
and imported oil would increase.  Specifically, it is assumed that
imports would increase from 12.7 quads in 1975 to 13.2 quads in 2000,
while domestic production would increase from 20.3 quads to 28.9
quads.

     Assumed domestic natural gas production declines in both
scenarios, while gas imports increase to compensate.  More gas is
assumed in the Low Growth Scenario by 2000 than in the High Growth
Scenario.  Because higher oil prices are assumed, domestic production
declines slower in the Low Growth Scenario, from 18.5 quads in 1975
to 18.1 quads in 2000.  Gas imports would almost triple over the same
^Nuclear electricity production is expressed here in terms of
 equivalent fossil fuel input to obtain the same output.  The
 relationship assumed is Output divided by 0.34 = Input.  This
 relationship is established in order to permit direct measurement
 of the degree to which nuclear energy displaces other energy
 supplies.
^"World List of Nuclear Power Plants,"  Nuclear News, Vol. 21,
 August 1978, pp. 67-85.
                                  779

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period, with a net increase in total gas consumption to 20.8 quads in
2000.  In contrast, domestic production is assumed to decline faster
in the High Growth Scenario, from 18.5 quads in 1975 to 16.9 quads in
2000.  The assumed lower energy prices also would reduce the incen-
tive to import gas supplies, so that total gas consumption in the
High Growth Scenario would exhibit a net decline, from 18.5 quads in
1975 to 18.1 quads in 2000.

     New energy technologies are included in both scenarios.  Oil
shale production is assumed to increase sharply, especially in the
High Growth Scenario, in response to strong petroleum demand.  Pro-
duction would increase from zero in 1975 to 5.4 quads in the High
Growth Scenario and 2.2 quads in the Low Growth Scenario by 2000.
This assumed difference in oil shale exploitation accounts for almost
all of the 3.3 quad difference between scenarios in net domestic oil
production in 2000.  Other new technologies, such as solar and geo-
thermal, are assumed to displace about 1.2 quads by 2000 in the High
Growth Scenario and 0.9 quad in the Low Growth Scenario.

     The gross supply of energy in all forms is consumed by five
major categories of activities:  transportation, residential, commer-
cial, industrial, and exports.  Assumptions are made about the demand
by each of these categories for coal, oil products, natural gas,
electricity, solar, geothermal, and other energy sources.

     The electricity consumed by these activities is generated by
electric utilities, which convert coal, oil, gas, and other forms of
energy to electricity.  The total output of electrical energy by the
utilities is assumed in the High Growth Scenario to rise from 6.5
quads in 1975 to 14.9 quads in 2000.  A similar increase,  to 13.3
quads in 2000, is assumed in the Low Growth Scenario.

     Figure B-2 and Table B-6 show the assumptions made about the mix
of energy sources used to generate this electricity.  In both scenar-
ios, almost the entire increase in electrical output is achieved by
expanding reliance on coal and nuclear energy.  In addition, coal and
nuclear energy are assumed to replace oil and gas to varying degrees
in electrical generation.  This occurs in direct response to legisla-
tion prohibiting construction of new oil- and gas-fired electric
utilities.  Coal and nuclear power are left to provide for almost all
growth in electrical output, as well as replacement capacity.

     In the High Growth Scenario, the dependence of utilities on coal
rises from 44 percent in 1975 to 55 percent in 2000.  During the same
period, reliance on nuclear generation would rise from 9 percent of
the total to 30 percent.  Thus, these two sources would provide 85
percent of electrical utility output in 2000.  The Low Growth Sce-
nario assumes a similar increase in reliance on coal and nuclear


                                 780

-------

-------
                             TABLE B-6
           FUEL MIX ASSUMPTIONS FOR ELECTRIC UTILITIES3
                                   Demand  in  2000 (10   Btu)
Fuel Type
Coal
Old plants
New plants
Total Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Hydroelectric
Other
Total
1975

2.9
0.0
2.9
1.0
1.0
0.6
-0.9
0.0
6.5
High Growth

2.3
6.0
8.2
0.5
0.05
4.5
1.1
0.4
14.9
Low Growth

2.6
4.4
6.9
0.8
0.6
3.6
1.1
0.3
13.3
Q
 Rounding may create inconsistencies in addition.
                                782

-------
energy, so that by 2000 coal would provide 52 percent and nuclear
energy 27 percent of total electrical generation (together 79
percent).

     In both scenarios, reliance of utilities on oil and natural gas
is assumed to lessen between 1975 and 2000.  This decline is most
marked in the High Growth Scenario, in which reliance on oil and
natural gas is assumed to fall by 50 percent and 95 percent respec-
tively.  The corresponding declines in use of oil and natural gas
in the Low Growth Scenario are 20 percent and 40 percent.  These de-
clines would occur through substitution of coal and nuclear energy
for oil and gas in electrical generation.

     The breakdown of final consumption of all forms of energy by
transportation, residential, commercial, industrial, and export
activities is shown in Table B-7.  Overall, the demand for energy by
these activities is assumed to increase in the High Growth Scenario
by 60 percent between 1975 and 2000, from about 53 quads to 85 quads
per year.  The corresponding increase in the Low Growth Scenario
would be about 33 percent, rising to a 2000 demand of 70 quads.

     Several shifts among shares of total energy demand are assumed
to occur between 1975 and 2000 (Table B-7).  The share of energy
demanded by transportation activities is assumed to decline from 34
percent to 27 percent in the High Growth Scenario and 23 percent in
the Low Growth Scenario.   The actual amount of energy consumed in
transportation increases by 26 percent in the High Growth Scenario,
but decreases by 11 percent in the Low Growth Scenario.

     The share of total energy consumed by transportation declines in
response to assumptions about automobile fuel economy and use of mass
transit.  Automobile gas mileage is assumed to increase from a fleet
average of 15.6 miles per gallon in 1975 to 27.5 miles per gallon in
2000.  Table B-8 shows the assumed trend in passenger travel toward
less reliance on the personal automobile and higher use of bus and
rail transit.

    Dependence on the automobile is assumed to decline between 1975
and 2000 from 93 percent of passenger miles traveled (PMT) in urban
areas^ to 88 percent in 2000 in the High Growth Scenario.  The re-
duction is much more pronounced under the high oil price assumption
of the Low Growth Scenario.  In that case, automobile travel would
decline to 59 percent of urban PMT.  Conversely, dependence on bus
and rail transit is assumed to increase more in the Low Growth case.
        areas" are defined here as areas within Standard Metropoli-
 tan Statistical Areas (SMSAs).  "Rural areas" lie outside any SMSA.

                                 783

-------
^1
oo
                                                       TABLE B-7
                                             COMPOSITION OF ENERGY DEMAND
                                                     1975 and 2000
                                                                               2000
1975
Transportation
Residential
Commercial
a
Industrial
Exports
Total
Demand
(1015 Btu)
18
10
7
16
2
53
Percent .of
Total
34
19
14
30
3
100
High Growth Scenario
Demand
(1015 Btu)
23
12
13
35
2
85
Percent of
Total
27
14
15
42
3
100
Low Growth Scenario
Demand
(1015 Btu)
16
13
11
29
2
70
Percent of
Total
23
18
15
41
3
100
                 Includes  demand  for  oil  and natural gas  as  chemical  feedstocks.
                 industrial  fuel  consumption breakdown.

                 Rounding  may create  inconsistencies in addition.
See Table B-9  for

-------
                             TABLE B-8
                      PASSENGER TRAVEL BY TYPE
                (Percent of Passenger Miles Traveled)
1975
Auto
Bus
Rail
Air
Urban
93
4
3
_____
2000
High Growth
Rural
86
2
1
11
Urban3
88
7
5
_ — _
Rural
80
2
1
17
Low Growth
Urbana
59
24
17
	 —
Rural
79
4
4
14
     aAreas within Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas
      (SMSAs).
     Dependence on the automobile remains high in rural settings.  It
should be noted that the urban and rural shares presented in Table
B-8 cannot be compared directly, since air travel is included in the
total of rural PMT.  If air travel were excluded, rural area depen-
dence on automobiles in 2000 would be 97 percent of passenger miles
traveled in the High Growth Scenario, and 91 percent in the Low
Growth Scenario.  The net result, in any event, is an overall decline
in the transportation share of total energy demand in 2000 in both
scenarios.

     A number of detailed assumptions combine to produce the changes
in energy demand by residential and commercial customers evident in
Table B-7.  In general, increase in demand is stimulated by economic
growth.  However, this increase would be dampened by the adoption of
energy conservation strategies and the replacement of old facilities
with more energy-efficient facilities.

     The greatest expansion of energy demand is assumed for indus-
trial activities.  From 1975 to 2000, industrial demand more than
doubles in the High Growth Scenario and nearly doubles in the Low
Growth Scenario.  The share of total energy demanded by industry
rises in both scenarios from 30 percent in 1975 to more than 40
percent of all energy consumption in 2000.

     The sources of energy for this expanded consumption are shown
in Figure B-3 and Table B-9.  Reliance on electricity, oil, and coal
increases from 1975 to 2000 at the same time that reliance on natural
gas is declining as a percentage of total demand.  This is most
marked in the High Growth Scenario, where the share of energy
obtained from coal rises from 10 percent in 1975 to 25 percent of

                                785

-------

-------
                             TABLE  B-9
                 MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT INDUSTRIAL
                          FUEL  CONSUMPTION3
Industrial Fuel
                               High Growth
                     Low Growth
consumption
(1015 Btu)
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Coke
1975
1
1
6
2
2
1985
4
4
8
4
1
1990
5
5
8
4
1
2000
7
6
7
5
1
1985
3
3
8
3
1
1990
3
4
8
4
1
2000
4
4
8
5
1
  Average Retirement
  Rate for Industrial
  Facilities (percent)

  Level of Incentives
  for Switching to
  Coal from Oil or
  Natural Gas
  1.2
Moderate
1.5
Low
   Excludes demand for oil and natural gas as chemical feedstocks.

   Old facilities are assumed to substitute coal and electricity
   for oil and natural gas at the rates of 15 percent by 1985 and
   30 percent by 2000.
                                 787

-------
total demand in 2000, while the corresponding share for natural gas
declines from 46 percent to 27 percent of the total.  In the Low
Growth Scenario, the oil and gas shares rise slightly less, and
natural gas retains a 35 percent share of industrial energy demand in
2000.  The decline in growth of demand beyond 1985, visible in Figure
B-3, occurs because of the relatively lower GNP growth rates assumed
for that period.  The differences between scenarios arise from a
combination of differences in growth of total demand, and an assumed
higher rate of equipment replacement under the high economic growth
condition.  Replacement equipment would be subject to Federal
requirements to switch from use of oil and gas to coal.

     In the High Growth Scenario, direct use of coal would rise by a
multiple of nearly 5 by 2000, and at that time would be about 67 per-
cent greater than Low Growth industrial coal demand.  In addition, an
increasing proportion of the electricity consumed by industry would
actually derive from utility combustion of coal (see Figure B-2).
Thus both scenarios assume that a large portion of industrial energy
demand will be met through direct or indirect use of coal.

     The combustion of coal in utility and industrial boilers is one
of the major sources of air pollution in the United States.  Since
pre-1976 boilers are regulated under less stringent regulations
(SIPs) than post-1975 boilers (NSPS and BACT), the extent to which
coal-fired boilers would contribute to future air pollution largely
depends on the rate at which pre-1976 boilers are phased out of
operation.

     Table B-10 presents a summary of the retirement rates assumed in
the High Growth and Low Growth scenarios.  These rates represent the
                             TABLE B-10
             PRE-1976 COAL-FIRED BOILER RETIREMENT RATES
                           (percent/year)

 Category            1975-1985    1985-1990    1990-2000    1975-2000

High Growth
  Utility              0.97         0.35         1.05         0.88
  Industrial           2.95         3.10         7.13         4.67

Low Growth
  Utility              0.15         0.67         0.72         0.48
  Industrial           2.95         3.10         7.13         4.67
                                  788

-------
average annual decline  in:   (1) power generation from pre-1976 coal-
fired utility boilers or  (2)  the demand for coal for combustion in
pre-1976 coal-fired  industrial boilers, as appropriate.

     Utility boilers are  assumed to be retired more slowly under Low
Growth conditions than  under  High Growth conditions.  The rationale
for  this assumption  is  that  given slower increases in demand for
electricity and overall lower economic growth conditions, utilities
would attempt to keep older  plants on-line rather than retire the
plants and build new ones."

     In contrast to utility  boilers, economic conditions are assumed
not  to affect the retirement  of industrial boilers.  These boilers
are  assumed, in both scenarios, to have a 40-year lifetime.  The
retirement rates are based on this assumption and on data on boiler
age  available in the "Major  Fuel Burning Installation Data Base."

B.I.3  ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION

     The SEAS model estimates emissions of pollutants by subtracting
the  amount of pollutant removed from wastestreams from the total
amount of pollutant produced  by each source.  The projected degree of
pollutant removal from  wastestreams thus is determined by the string-
ency of environmental controls assumed in the SEAS model.  The basic
assumption in the model is that sufficient controls will be applied
to comply with all applicable regulations.'
.This assumption and rationale have been contested in comments on
 the Environmental Outlook preliminary drafts.  Viewed from the
 opposite perspective the retirement assumptions imply that, given
 more rapid increases in demands for electricity and higher economic
 growth conditions, utilities would be expected to retire "old"
 plants more rapidly, effectively reducing available capacity in the
 face of increasing demand.  Neither of these arguments is all-
 encompassing or conclusive.  However, the results of the air pollu-
 tant analysis must be viewed in the light of the assumptions made.
 'The assumption that regulations will be complied with completely
 by specific dates is important.  Actual emissions of each pollutant
 could be expected to be somewhat higher than the "net" levels
 projected by SEAS.  The amount by which actual emissions would
 exceed "net" estimates is a function of compliance.  This is
 discussed for a major pollutants within Chapters 4, 6, and 10.
                                  789

-------
     Information on SEAS environmental regulation assumptions are
listed in Table B-ll.  A brief description of these regulations by
medium follows:

B.I.3.1  Air Quality Assumptions

     The Clean Air Act (CAA) as amended requires the EPA Administra-
tor to set National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS).  NAAQS
consist of primary standards to protect public health, and secondary
standards to protect the public welfare, to be met "within a reason-
able period of time."  EPA has established NAAQS for seven "criteria"
pollutants:  particulates, sulfur oxides, nitrogen dioxide, hydrocar-
bons, carbon monoxide, photochemical oxidants, and lead.  Each state
was required to  develop and submit a State Implementation Plan (SIP)
to the EPA Administrator.  The SIP specifies strategies for achieving
the level of air quality established by the NAAQS for individual pol-
lutants in all regions of the state.

     EPA has also set New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for
selected industrial categories.  These standards are intended to
assure that new and replacement equipment will meet uniform high
standards of pollution control.

     The environmental projections in this report have assumed that
SIP and NSPS standards will be met fully by 1985.  New steam genera-
tors fired by fossil fuels coming on line after 1975 (and before
1984) are assumed to meet the original NSPS standards.8  The level
of pollution control simulated in 1975 is based upon the latest
available state-of-compliance data from EPA.

     Title II of the Clean Air Act (as amended August 1977) specifies
emission limits on mobile sources.  These emission limits have been
translated into emission factors by EPA's Office of Transportation
and Land Use Policy and are incorporated into SEAS.

     A nondeterioration standard, known as "prevention of signifi-
cant deterioration" (PSD), was imposed by the 1977 Amendments to
^In the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Congress mandated revised
 NSPS regulations by calling for more stringent emissions and rate
 limits and the use of "Best Available Control Technology" (BACT) on
 new major emitting facilities.  These standards have been simulated
 for new coal-fired utilities and industrial boilers (1981 and
 after), although regulations for compliance have not yet been
 finalized.
                                790

-------
                                                         TABLE B-ll
                                   TIMING AND STRINGENCY OF POLLUTION CONTROL REGULATIONS
vo
                Category of
                 Standard
          State Implementation
            Plans (SIP)

          New Source Performance
            Standards (NSPS)

          Best Available Control
            Technology (BACT)
          Mobile Source Standards
          Best Practicable
            Technology (BPT)
          Best Available
            Technology (BAT)
 Medium
Affected

  Air
  Air
  Air
  Air
 Water
 Water
         Applicability
Existing plants; regulations
are state-specific.

New plants; national in
scope.

Modified forms of NSPS recom-
mended in the 1977 CAA for
boilers and utilities.b

Phased application to all
automobiles, by year of
manufacture.0

All plants, national in
scope; standards are
indus t ry-specific.

All plants, national in
scope; standards are
industry-specific.
 Initially Promul-
 gated Compliance
	Date3

       1975
       1975
  1981-boilers
  1984-utilities
  Final CO
  Final HC
1981
1980
                                                                                 Final NOV 1981
       1975
       1983
         Assumed Compliance
           Date for Full
          Enforcement3	

                1985
                1975
           1981-boilers
           1984-utilities
Final CO
Final HC
1981
1980
                                                                  Final NOV 1981
                1979
                1985°
          .Promulgation and enforcement of standards are assumed to be the same for both scenarios.
           See also Table A-ll.
          c
           .Phased introduction of standards is to be completed by cited date.
           Requirement waived for a number of industries indefinitely; 1984 date met by others; not yet incorporated
           into data base.

-------
protect existing ambient air quality.  Class I areas, considered to
be very clean, are permitted little or no increase in ambient pol-
lutant concentrations.  Class II areas are allowed moderate increases
in air pollution; and Class III areas, which are relatively dirty,
are allowed more intensive growth, permitting levels of air quality
deterioration up to ambient air quality standards.

     States with "non-attainment areas" (areas that do not meet ambi-
ent standards) are required by the 1977 Amendments to revise their
SIP standards by June 30, 1979, and apply an "offset" policy to new
sources.  This offset policy specifies that, if a new facility is
being added in the area, air pollution from existing sources must be
reduced by more than the amount that would be added by the new facil-
ity in the area, even if the facility itself would be in compliance
with New Source Performance Standards.  The offset policy also
applies to major modifications or expansions of existing plants.

     The existence of PSD and non-attainment areas is recognized only
indirectly in SEAS.  The method used by SEAS to choose locations for
future power plants and coal conversion facilities avoids siting
facilities where they would conflict with PSD and non-attainment
regulations.  No attempt has been made to model offset policies or
revised SIPs.

B.I.3.2  Water Quality Assumptions

     The Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA) Amendments of
1972 provide the legislative basis for the water quality regulations
and assumptions discussed in this report.  The Clean Water Act (CWA)
of 1977 amends the FWPCA's funding of treatment works and compliance
dates.

     The FWPCA established several national goals related to water
quality:

     o  Elimination of polluting discharges to the nation's
        waters by 1985

     o  Prohibition of toxic pollutant releases

     o  Areawide waste treatment planning

     The Act further established an interim water quality goal that
will protect fish, shellfish, and wildlife and will provide for
recreation, wherever attainable, by July 2, 1983.

     To attain the interim goal, FWPCA required EPA to set point
source effluent limitations in two stages.  The first stage estab-
lished effluent limitations to be met by July 1, 1977, based on the

                                 792

-------
Best Practicable Control Technology (BPT) then available.  For pub-
licly owned waste treatment works this technology is defined as
secondary treatment; for industrial treatment, each industry has a
standard for pollutant discharge per unit of production.  The second
stage develops standards based on the Best Available Technology (BAT)
economically achievable by July 1983.  For publicly owned waste
treatment plants, this may imply tertiary treatment.  The SEAS
scenarios developed for this study include the assumption that BPT
standards will be met in 1979 and BAT by 1985.

B.I.3.3  Solid and Hazardous Waste Assumptions

     New regulations of potentially great importance are being devel-
oped under provisions of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act
of 1976 (PL 94-580) (RCRA).  These regulations are intended to pro-
mote solid waste management planning, prohibit open dumping, regulate
hazardous wastes, and promote advanced recycling systems.  RCRA regu-
lations are not yet available for inclusion in the SEAS model.  Some
industrial and economic implications of the Act are discussed in
Chapter 10 on the basis of the most recent information available
about the emerging regulations.

B.I.3.4  Toxic Substances Assumptions

     The Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976 (PL 94-469) (TSCA) gave
EPA broad discretionary authority to control dangerous chemical sub-
stances.  Major provisions of the Act require manufacturers and pro-
cessors of potentially harmful chemical substances and mixtures to
test those substances to determine their effect on health and the
environment.  The Act also requires that manufacturers who plan to
produce new chemical substances or to produce existing chemicals for
significant new uses must notify EPA in advance of production.

     Regulations published so far under TSCA provisions include:  a
requirement to submit health and environmental studies for ten groups
of chemical substances; disposal and marking requirements for poly-
chlorinated biphenyls; and regulation of the manufacture, processing,
and distribution of fluorocarbons.  Regulations that would ban the
manufacture, processing, distribution, and use of polychlorinated
biphenyls have been proposed.

     The only regulations that affect specific chemicals were promul-
gated in February and March 1979.   These regulations could not read-
ily be included in the SEAS model at that time, and therefore are not
part of the model's data base.  However, their implications were con-
sidered to the extent possible in Chapter 11.
                                 793

-------
                              APPENDIX C
                      SELECTED ENGLISH-METRIC
                         CONVERSION FACTORS
To convert from
To
Multiply by
Acres
Atmospheres
Barrels (petroleum,  U.S.)
Bars
Btu
Feet
Gallons (liquid, U.S.)
Hectares
Square feet
Square kilometers
Square meters
Square miles

Bars
Inches of Hg (32°F)
Kilograms/square centimeter
Millimeters of Hg  (0°C)
Newtons/square meter
Pounds/square inch

Cubic feet
Cubic meters
Gallons (U.S.)
Liters

Atmospheres
Inches of Hg (32OF)
Kilograms/square centimeter
Newtons/square meter
Pounds/square inch

Btu (IST)a
Calories, gram (1ST)
Foot-pounds
Horsepower-hours
Joules
Joules  (international)
Kilowatt-hours
Kilowatt-hours (international)

Centimeters
Inches
Meters
Microns
Miles  (statute)

Barrels (liquid, U.S.)
Barrels (petroleum,  U.S.)
Cubic centimeters
Cubic feet
0.40468564
43560
0.0040468564
4046.8564
0.0015625

1.01325
29.9213
1.03323
760
101320
14.6960

5.614583
0.15893
42
158.98284

0.986923
29.5300
1.019716
100,000
14.5038

0.999346
251.831
777.649
0.000392752
1054.35
1054.18
0.000292875
0.000292827

30.48
12
0.3048
304800
0.000189393

0.031746032
0.023809524
3785.4118
0.133680555
                                      795

-------
             SELECTED  ENGLIGH-METRIC  CONVERSION  FACTORS  (CONTINUED)
To convert from
To
                                                              Multiply by
Inches of Hg (32<>F)
Miles (statute)
Pounds (avoirdupois)
Pounds/square inch
Tons (long)
Tons (metric)
Cubic inches
Cubic meters
Liters
Tons (long, petroleum)
Tons (metric, petroleum)
Tons (short, petroleum)

Atmospheres
Bars
Kilograms/square meter
Millimeters of Hg (60°C)
Newtons/square meter
Pounds/square inch

Feet
Kilometers
Meters

Grains
Kilograms
Ounces (avoirdupois)
Tons (long)
Tons (metric)
Tons (short)

Atmospheres
Bars
Inches of Hg (32°F)
Kilograms/square centimeter
Millimeters of Hg (0°C)
Newtons/square meter

Barrels (petroleum,  U.S.)
Kilograms
Pounds (avoirdupois)
Tons (metric)
Tons (short)

Barrels (petroleum,  U.S.)
Kilograms
Pounds (avoirdupois)
Tons (long)
Tons (short)
231
0.0037854118
3.785306
0.00319
0.00325
0.00358

0.0334211
0.0338639
345.316
25.4
3386.5
0.49115

5280
1.609344
1609.344

453.59237
0.45359237
16
0.00044642857
0.00045359237
0.0005

0.0680460
0.0689476
2.03602
0.070306958
51.7149
6894.9

7.45
1016.0469
2240
1.0160469
1.12

7.33
1000
2204.6226
0.98420653
1.1023113
                                      796

-------
            SELECTED ENGLISH-METRIC  CONVERSION  FACTORS  (CONCLUDED)
To convert from               To                              Multiply by


Tons (short)                  Barrels (petroleum, U.S.)       6.65
                              Kilograms                       907.18474
                              Pounds (avoirdupois)            2000
                              Tons (long)                     0.89285714
                              Tons (metric)                   0.90718474
      aIST - International Steam Table.
      Source:  Adapted from Tetra Tech,  Inc., Department of  the  Navy
           Energy Fact Book, 1979, pp. B-3 - B-7.
                                      797

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                    SELECTED REFERENCES
CHAPTER 1 ENVIRONMENTAL AND INSTITUTIONAL  CONTEXT

National Academy of Sciences.   Long-Range  Environmental Outlook;
     Proceedings of a Workshop, November 14-16, 1979.  Washington,
     D.C.:  National Academy of Sciences,  1980.

Ridker, Ronald G. and William D. Watson.   To Choose a Future;
     Resource and Environmental Consequences of Alternative Growth
     Paths.  Baltimore, Maryland:   The  Johns Hopkins University Press
     for Resources for the Future,  1980.
CHAPTER 2 APPROACH

House, Peter W. and John McLeod.   Large-Scale Models for Policy Eval-
     uation.  New York, New York:   John Wiley and Sons, 1977.
CHAPTER 3 SOCIETAL TRENDS

"A New Strategy for Environmental  Control."  Resources 59 (April-July
     1978), p. 2.

Caldwell, L.K.  Environment;   A Challenge  to Modern Society.  New
     York, New York:   Doubleday and  Company, 1970.

Council on Environmental Quality.  Environmental Quality-1973;  The
     Fourth Annual Report of  the Council on Environmental Quality.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S.  Government Printing Office, 1973.

Inadvertent Climate Modification.  Report  of the Study of Man's
     Impact on Climate.   Cambridge,  Massachusetts:  MIT Press, 1971.

Mitchell, R.C.  "Environment:   An  Enduring Concern."  Resources 57
     (January-March 1978),  p.  1.

	.  "The Public Speaks  Again:  A New Environmental Survey."
     Resources 60 (September-November  1978), p. 4.

Myers, Melvin L.  A Survey  of  International Intergovernmental Organ-
     izations;  The Strategies That  They Use to Abate Pollution. EPA
     600/9-78-033, Office of Research  and  Development.Washington,
     D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency, 1978.
                                799

-------
Opinion Research Corporation.  "Attitudes of Washington Thought-
     leaders Toward the Future Availability and Use of the Nation's
     Basic Resources and Materials."  Public Opinion Index 37
     (February 1979), p. 3.

	.  "Public Attitudes Toward Air and Water Pollution."  Public
     Opinion Index 35 (February 1977).

	.  "Public Attitudes Toward Environmental Tradeoffs."  Public
     Opinion Index 33 (August 1975).
CHAPTER 4 AIR POLLUTANTS

American Chemical Society.  Cleaning Our Environment;   A Chemical
     Perspective.  Second Edition.  Washington, B.C.:   American
     Chemical Society, 1978.

Crocker, T. et al.  Methods Development for Assessing Air Pollution
     Control Benefits.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, 1979.

Dux, D.C. e t al.  Modeling Long-Term Coal Production with the Argonne
     Coal Market Model.  Argonne, Illinois:  Argonne National
     Laboratory, 1977.

Ember, L.R.  "The Diesel Dilemma."  Environment 21 (March 1979).

           "Preserving Our Visibility Heritage."  Environmental
     Science and Technology (March 1979), pp. 266-268.

Gannon, J.  "Acid Rain Fallout:  Pollution and Politics."  National
     Parks and Conservation Magazine (October 1978), pp. 16-21.

Harrington, R.E.  "Fine Particulates—The Misunderstood Air Pollu-
     tant s."  Journal of the Air Pollution Control Association
     (October 1974), pp. 928-929.

Jones, K.H.  Development of a Relative Exposure Factor for the CEQ
     Health Risk Model.  Washington, D.C.:  Council on Environmental
     Quality, 1978.

Lave, L. and E. Seskin.  Air Pollution and Human Health.  Baltimore,
     Maryland:  Johns Hopkins University Press, 1977.

Likens, G.E.  "Acid Rain:  A Serious Regional Environmental Problem."
     Science 184 (1974), pp. 1176-1179.
                                 800

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Liljestrand, H.M. and J.J. Morgan.  "Chemical Composition of Acid
     Precipitation in Pasadena, California."  Environmental Science
     and Technology (December 1978), pp. 1271-1273.

Massaglia, M.F.  Summary of Particulate and Sulfur Oxide Source
     Categories, 1970-1975.  Volume II.  Research Triangle Park,
     North Carolina:  Research Triangle Institute, 1976.

Midwest Research Institute.  Fine Particulate Emission Inventory and
     Control Survey. Office of Water and Waste Management,
     EPA-450/3-74-040.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, 1974.

The MITRE Corporation, CONSAD Research Corportion, Control Data Cor-
     poration, International Research and Technology, Inc.  National
     Environment Impact Projection No. 1.  MTR-7905.  McLean,
     Virginia:  The MITRE Corporation, 1978.

National Academy of Sciences.  Asbestos.  Washington, D.C.:  National
     Academy of Sciences, 1971.

	.  Lead:  Aijrborne Lead in Perspective.  Washington, D.C.:
     Naional Academy of Sciences, 1972.

     .  Nitrates:  An EnvironmentalAssessment.  Washington, D.C.:
     Naional Academy of Sciences, 1978.

	.  Nitrogen Oxides.  Washington, D.C.:  National Academy of
     Sciences, 1977.

	.  Sulfur Oxides.  Washington, D.C.:  National Academy of
     Sciences, 1978.

Office of Technology Assessment.  The Direct Use of Coal. Washington,
     D.C.:  U.S.  Government Printing Office, 1979.

Radian Corporation.  Coal-Fired Power Plant Trace Element Study.
     Volume I.  Austin, Texas, 1975.

Rolfe, G. and A.  Haney.  An Ecosystem Analysis of Environmental Con-
     tamination by Lead.  Urbana, Illinois:  University of Illinois
     Press, 1975.

Sawyer, J.W.  "The Sulfur We Breathe."  Environment 20 (March 1978),
     pp. 28-29.

Stoker, H.S. and S.L. Seager.  Environmental Chemistry:  Air and
     Water Pollution.  Second Edition.  Glenview, Illinois:   Scott,
     Foresman and Co., 1976.

                                801

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Teknekron.  Transport and Fate and Gaseous Pollutants Associated with
     the National Energy Plan.  Berkeley, California:  Energy and En-
     vironmental Engineering Division, 1977.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  Air Quality Criteria for Lead.
     EPA 600/8-017.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, 1978.

	.  Compilation of Air Pollution Emission Factors. Publication
     AP-42 and supplements 5 to 8.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Govern-
     ment Printing Office, 1975.

	.  Emission Study of Industrial Sources of Lead Air Pollutants
     1970.  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina:  Research
     Triangle Institute, 1973.

	.  Energy/Environment III.  EPA-600/9-78-002.  Washington, D.C.:
      U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978.

	.  Mobile Source Emission Factors.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1977.

	.  National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report—1976.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1977.

	.  National Annual Air Quality and Emission Trends Report.  NTIS
     PB-263922.  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina:  Research
     Triangle Institute, 1976.

	.  1973 National Emissions Report.  EPA-450/2-76-007.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1976.

	.  Particulate Control for Fugitive Dust.  EPA-600/7-78-071.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978.

	.  State Implementation Plans—Emission Regulations for
     Particulate Matter:  Fuel Combustion.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1976.

	.  State Implementation Plans—Emission Regulations for Sulfur
     Oxide:  Fuel Combustion.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government
     Printing Office, 1978.

	.  Technical Assessment of NOX Removal Processes for Utility
     Application.EPA-600/7-77-127^Washington, D.C.:U.S. Govern-
     ment Printing Office, 1977.
                                  802

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CHAPTER 5 GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION

Albanese, A.  Follow-up Report to EPA's Coal Technology Assessment
     C02 Forum.  Ann Arbor, Michigan:  University of Michigan
     Press, 1978.

	, and M. Steinberg.  Environmental Control Technology for Atmos-
     pheric Carbon Dioxide.  BNL-50877.  Upton, New York:  Brookhaven
     National Laboratory, 1978.

Baes, C.E. Jr. et al.  "Carbon Dioxide and Climate:  The Uncontrolled
     Experiment."  American Scientist 65 (1977), p. 310.

Barrett, E. and G. Brodin.  "The Acidity of Scandinavian Precipita-
     tion."  Tellus 7 (1955), pp. 251-257.

Block, B.P.  "The Continuing Controversy about Ozone."  Chemical and
     Engineering News (July 16, 1979).

Bohn, H.L. "Estimate of Organic Carbon in World Soils."  Soil Science
     Society American Journal 40 (1976), pp. 468-470.

Bolin, B.  "The Carbon Cycle."  Scientific American 223  (September
     1970), p. 124.

	.  "The General Circulation of  the Atmosphere and  the Distri-
     bution of Climatic Zones."  Annual Review of Energy 2 (1977),
     pp. 204-218.

Bray, J.R.  "An Analysis of the Possible Recent Change in Atmospheric
     Carbon Dioxide Concentration."  Tellus 11 (1959), p. 220.

Brennan, R.P.  "A Soft Approach to Chlorofluorocarbon Regulation."
     Environment 21 (April 1979), p. 41.

Broecker, W.S.  "Climatic Change:  Are We on the Brink of a Pronoun-
     ced Global Warming?"  Science 189 (September 27, 1975), p. 462.

Cicerone, R.J., R.S. Stolarksi, and S. Walters.  "Stratospheric Ozone
     Destruction by Man-Made Chlorofluoromethanes."  Science 185
     (1975), p. 1165.

Cooper, H.B., J.A. Lopez, and J.M. Denio.  "Chemical Composition of
     Acid Precipitation in Central Texas."  Water, Air and Soil
     Pollution 6 (1976), pp. 351-359.
                               803

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Council on Environmental Quality.  Fluorocarbons and the Environment;
     Report of Federal Task Force on Inadvertent Modification of the
     Stratosphere (IMPS).Washington, D.C.:U.S.  Government
     Printing Office, 1975.

Crutzen, P. "Estimates of Possible Future Ozone Reductions from
     Continued Use of Fluoro-Chloro-Methanes  (CF2,  C12,  CFCL3)."
     Geophysical Research Letters 1 (September 1974),  p. 205.

Dochinger, L.A. and T.A. Selega, eds.   Proceedings  of  the First
     International Symposium on Acid Precipitation  and the First
     Ecosystems.  USDA Forest Service General Technical  Report NE 23.
     Upper Darby, Pennsylvania:  Northeastern Forest Exp. Station,
     1976.

Galloway, J.N. and E.B. Cowling.  "The Effects of Precipitation on
     Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems:   A Proposed Precipitation
     Chemistry Network."  Journal of the  Air Pollution  Control
     Association 28 (March 1978), pp.  229-235.

Geophysics Study Committee and National Research Council.  Studies in
     Geophysics;  Energy and Climate.   Washington,  D.C.:  National
     Academy of Sciences, 1977.

Gibbons, S. "Regulation of Chlorofluorocarbons:  Phase I." Environ-
     ment 20 (May 1979), p. 5.

Glass, N.R. "Identification and Distribution  of Inorganic Components
     in Water:  What to Measure?"  New York Academy of Sciences
     Annals 298 (1977), p. 31.

	, G.E. Likens, and L.S. Dochinger.  "The Ecological Effects of
     Atmospheric Deposition."  Energy/Environment III.  EPA-600/9-78-
     002.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978.

Gribben, J.  "Disappearing Threat to Ozone."   New Scientist 81
     (February 15, 1979), p. 474.

	.  "Monitoring Halocarbons in the Atmosphere." New Scientist
     81 (January 18, 1979), p. 164.

        "Ozone Passion Colled by the Breath of Sweet Reason."
     New Scientist 80 (October 12, 1978), p. 94.

Gribben, J., ed.  Climatic Change.  Cambridge:  Cambridge University
     Press, 1978.
                                 804

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Hudson, R., ed.  Chlorofluoromethanes and the Stratosphere.
     Reference Publication 1010.  Washington, D.C.:  National
     Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1977.

Keating, G.  "Relation between Monthly Variations of Global Ozone and
     Solar Activity."  Nature 174 (August 31, 1978), p. 873.

Keeling, C.D. and R.B. Bacastow.  "Impact of Industrial Gases on
     Climate."  Studies in Geophysics;  Energy and Climate.
     Washington, D.C.:  National Academy of Sciences, 1977.

Keeling, C.D. et al.  "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variations at the
     South Pole."  Tellus 28 (1976), p. 358.

Likens, G.E.  "Acid Precipitation."  Chemical and Engineering News 54
     (1976), pp. 29-44.

	, F.H. Borman, and N. Johnson.  "Acid Rain." Environment 14
     (1972), pp. 33-40.

Manabe, S. and R.T. Wetherald.  "The Effects of Doubling the C02
     Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model."
     Journal of Atmospheric Science 32 (1975), pp. 3-15.

Marchetti, C.  "Geo-Engineering and the C02 Problem."  Climate
     Change 1 (1977), p. 61.

Markley, O.W. et al.. Sociopolitical Impacts of Carbon Dioxide
     Buildup in the Atmosphere Due to Fossil Fuel Combustion.
     Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Energy Research and Development
     Administration, 1977.

Maugh, T. II and A. Hammond.  "The Effects of Ozone Depletion."
     Science 186 (1974), p. 337.

McCarthy, R., F. Bower, and J. Jesson.  "The Fluorocarbon-Ozone
     Theory—I, Production and Release:  World Production and Release
     of CC13F and CC12F2 (Fluorocarbons 11 and 12) through 1975."
     Atmospheric Environment 11 (January 13, 1977), p. 491.

McConnell, J. and H. Schiff.  "Methyl Chloroform:  Impact on
     Stratospheric Ozone."  Science 199 (1978), p. 174.

McLean, D.M. "A Terminal Mesozoic Greehouse:  Lessons from the Past."
     Science 210 (1978), p. 405.

Mercer, J.H.  "West Antarctic Ice Sheet and C02 Greenhouse Effect:
     A Threat of Disaster."  Nature 271 (1978), p. 321.


                                  805

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Mitchell, J.M. Jr.  "Natural Breakdown of the Present Interglaclal
     and Its Possible Intervention by Human Activities."  Quaternary
     Research 2 (1972), p. 436.

Molina, M. and F. Rowland.  "Stratospheric Sink for Chlorofluorome-
     thanes:  Chlorine Atom-Catalyzed Destruction of Ozone."  Nature
     249 (June 28, 1974), p. 810.                             	

National Academy of Sciences.  Environmental Impact of Stratospheric
     Flight.  Washington, D.C.:  National Academy of Sciences, 1975.

        Halocarbons;  Effects of Stratospheric Ozone.  Washington,
     D.C.:  National Academy of Sciences, 1976.

	.  Protection against Depletion of Stratospheic Ozone by
     Chlorofluorocarbons.  Washington, B.C.:   National Academy of
     Sciences, 1979.

	.  Stratospheric Ozone Depletion by Halocarbons;   Chemistry and
     Transport.  Washington, D.C.:  National  Academy of Sciences,
     1979.

"Nitrate Fertilizers Threaten the Ozone Layer."  New Scientist 19
     (1978), p. 918.

Panofsky, H.  "Earth's Endangered Ozone."  Environment 20 (April
     1979), p. 17.

Parry, H.D.  "Ozone Depletion by Chlorofluoromethanes?  Yet Another
     Look."  Journal of Applied Meterology 16 (November 1977), p.
     1137.

Reck, R.  "Stratospheric Ozone Effects on Temperature."  Science 192
     (May 7, 1976), p. 557.

Reiners, W.A.  "Terrestrial Detritus and Carbon Cycle."  Brookhaven
     Symposium - Biology 24 (1973), pp. 303-327.

"Rich Natural Sources of Halocarbons in the Atmosphere."  New
     Scientist 81 (February 15, 1979), p. 477.

Schlesinger, W.H.  "Carbon Balance in Terrestrial Detritus."  Annual
     Review of Ecology Systematics 8 (1977).

Schneider, S.H.  "On the Carbon Dioxide Climate Contusion."  Journal
     of Atmospheric Science 32 (1975).

Shapley, D.  "Will Fertilizers Harm Ozone as  Much as SSTs?"  Science
     195 (1977), p. 377.

                                  806

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Siegenthaler, U. and H. Oeschger.  "Predicting Future Atmospheric
     Carbon Dioxide Levels."  Science 199 (January 27, 1978), p.
     388.

"Solar Flickers Linked with Ozone Fluctuations."  New Scientist 79
     (August 31, 1978), p. 621.

Stoel, T.  "Fluorocarbons, A Global Environmental Case Study."  New
     Scientist 82 (January 18, 1979), p. 166.

Stuiver, M.  "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Carbon Reservoir
     Changes."  Science 199 (1978), pp. 253-258.

Tamm, C.O.  "Acid Precipitation:  Biological Effects in Soil on
     Forest Vegetation."  Ambio 5 (1976), pp. 235-238.

Whelpdale, D.M.  Proceedings from the Workshop on Ecological Effects
     of Acid Precipitation.  EPRI SOA-77-403.  Palo Alto, California:
     Electric Power Research Institute, 1978.

Whittaker, R.H.  Communities and Ecosystems.  Second Edition.  New
     York:  Macmillan Company, 1975.

Williams ,, J., ed.  Carbon Dioxide, Climate, and Society.  Oxford:
     Pergamon Press, 1978.

Wilson, A.T.  "Pioneer Agriculture Explosion and C02 Levels in the
     Atmosphere."  Nature 273 (1978), pp. 40-41.

Woodwell, G.M. et al.  The Carbon Dioxide Problem;  Implications for
     Policy in the Management of Energy and Other Resources.
     Washington, D.C.:  Council on Environmental Quality, July 1979.

Woodwell, G.M. et al.  "The Biota and the World Carbon Budget."
     Science 199 (1978), pp. 141-146.
CHAPTER 6 WATER POLLUTANTS

Appalachian Regional Commission.  Acid Mine Drainage in Appalachia.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1969.

Battelle Columbus Laboratories.  Draft 1977 Cost of Clean Water.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1977.

Beale, D.L. "The Recent Shift of United States Population to
     Nonmetropolitan Areas, 1970-1975."  International Regional
     Science Review (1977).


                                 807

-------
Brandt, Gerald H. et al.  An Economic Analysis of Erosion and Sedi-
     ment Control Methods for Watersheds Undergoing Urbanization.
     PB-209 212.  Midland, Michigan:  Dow Chemical Company, February
     1972.

Council on Environmental Quality.  Energy Alternatives:   A
     Comparative Analysis.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S. Government
     Printing Office, May 1975.

	.  Environmental Quality-1978;  The Ninth Annual Report of the
     Council on Environmental Quality.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S.
     Government Printing Office, December 1978.

Coutant, C.C. "Biological Aspects of Thermal Pollution II."  CRC
     Critical Review in Environment Contamination.  Vol. 3.
     Cleveland, Ohio:  CRC Press, 1972.

Deeley, D.  Water Quality Management Guidance for Mine Related
     Pollution Sources.  EPA Technical Guidance Memorandum, Tech 42,
     December 1977.

DeSylva, D.P.  "Theoretical Considerations of the Effects  on Heated
     Effluents on Marine Fishes."  Biological Aspects of Thermal
     Pollution.  Nashville, Tennessee:  Vanderbilt University Press,
     1969.

Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc.  Environmental
     Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture - Volume
     I;  Trend Identification and Evaluation.  EPA 660/3-77-121.
     October 1977.

Downing, P.B.  The Economics of Urban Sewage Disposal.  New York:
     Frederick A. Praeger, Inc., 1969.

Energy Research and Development Administration.  Synthetic Fuels
     Commercialization Program;  Draft Environmental Statement.
     ERDA-1547.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,
     1975.

European Inland Fisheries Advisory Commission.  "Water Quality
     Criteria for European Freshwater Fish."  International Journal
     Air-Water Pollution (1965).

Ficke, J.T. and R.O. Hawkinson.  The National Stream Quality
     Accounting Network (NASQAN) - Some Questions and Answers.
     Circular 719.  Reston, Virginia:  U.S. Geological Survey, 1975.
                                808

-------
Gianessi, L.D. and H.M. Peskin.  A Comparison of Recent National
     Estimates.  Discussion Paper D-2.  Washington, D.C.:   Resources
     for the Future, February 1977.

Glass, N.R. "Mounting Acid Rain." EPA Journal (July/August 1979).

Hampson, G.R. and H.L. Sanders.  "Local Oilspills."  Oceanics (1969).

Heany, J. et al.  Nationwide Evaluation of Combined Sewer Overflows
     and Urban Stormwater Discharges, Volume II;  Cost Assessment and
     Impacts.  EPA 600/2/77-064.  March 1977.

Lee, W.L., R.A. Leone, and C. Smith.  The Economic Impact of the
     Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972 on the
     Nonferrous Metals Industry.  New York:  National Bureau of
     Economic Research, Inc., June 15, 1978.

Luken, R.A., D.J. Basta, and E.H. Pechan.  The National Residuals
     Discharge Inventory.  Washington, B.C.: National Research
     Council for the National Commission on Water Quality, January
     1976.

Metcalf and Eddy, Inc.  Urban Stormwater Management and Technology:
     Update and User's Guide.  EPA 660/8/77-014.  1977.

The MITRE Corporation.  National Environmental Impact Projection No.
     J^  MTR-7905.  Mclean, Virginia:  The MITRE Corporation,
     December 1978.

Midwest Research Institute.  Loading Functions for Assessment of
     Water Pollution from Nonpoint Sources.  EPA 600/1-76-151.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
     Office of Research and Development, May 1976.

	.  National Assessment of Water Pollution from Nonpoint Sources.
     Draft Final Report.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Environmental
     Protection Agency, November 1975.

National Commission on Water Quality.  Staff Draft Report.  Washing-
     ton, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, April 30, 1976.

Scaief, J.F.  Effluent Variability in the Meat Packing and Poultry
     Industries.  Pacific Northwest Environmental Research
     Laboratory, June 1975.
                               809

-------
Steffan, A.S.  Effects and Removability of Industrial Pollutants in a
     Municipal System.Joint Municipal/Industrial Seminar on Pre-
     treatment of Industrial Wastes, U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, 1978.

Thronson, R.E.  Nonpoint Source Control Guidance;  Construction.
     EPA Technical Memorandum TECH 27.  December 1976.

	.  Nonpoint Source Control Guidance;  Agricultural Activities.
     EPA 440/3-78-001.  February 1978.

U.S. Department of Agriculture.  Environmental Impact Statement-Rural
     Clean Water Program.  August 1978.

	.  National Interregional Agricultural Projection System.  Food
     and Agriculture, Washington D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, February 1977.

	.  National Inventory of Soil and Water Conservation Needs,
     1967.  Statistical Bulletin No. 461, January 1971.

	.  Potential Cropland Study.  Stat. Bulletin No. 578.  Washing-
     ton, D.C., 1977.

	.  Procedures for Computing Sheet and Rill Erosion in Project
     Areas.  Technical Release 51, Revision 2.  September 1977.

U.S. Department of Commerce.  Population, Personal Income, and
     Earnings by State;  Projections to 2000.  Bureau of Economic
     Analysis, Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,
     October 1977.

	.  Documenting the "Decline" of the North.  Economic Development
     Administration, Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, June 1978.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  The Control of Pollution from
     Hydrographic Modifications.  EPA 430/9-73-017.  Washington,
     D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1973.

	.  Development Documents for Effluent Limitations Guidelines and
     New Source Performance Standards for the Steam Electric Power
     Generating Point Source Category.  EPA 440/1-74019-a.  Washing-
     ton, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, October 1974.

	.  Development Document for Effluent Limitations Guidelines and
     New  Source Performance Standards.  Series 440.  Washington,
     D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, No date.

                                 810

-------
        Economic Analysis of Proposed Effluent Guidelines:   Pulp,
     Paper and Paperboard Industry.  EPA 230/1-73-023.  Washington,
     D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, September 1973.

     .  Economics of Clean Water, 1972.  Washington, B.C., 1972.
        Environmental Pollution Control Alternatives;  Municipal
     Wastewater.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,
     1976.

	.  Methods for Identifying and Evaluating the Nature and Extent
     of Nonpoint Sources of Pollutants.EPA 430/9-73-014.Washing-
     ton, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, October 1973.

	.  National Water Quality Inventory/1977 Report to Congress.
     EPA 440/4-78-001.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, 1978.

	.  1976 Needs Survey:  Cost Estimates for Construction of
     Publicly-Owned Wastewater Treatment Facilities, Washington,
     B.C.:U.S. Government Printing Office, February 1977.

	.  Processes, Procedures and Methods to Control Pollution from
     Mining Activities'^EPA 430/9-73-011.  Washington, B.C.:   uTsT
     Government Printing Office, 1973.

	.  Quality Criteria for Water.  Washington, B.C.:   U.S. Govern-
     ment Printing Office, July 1976.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and United States  Bepartment  of
     Agriculture.  Control of Water Pollution From Cropland;  Volume
     II:  An Overview^EPA 600/2-75-026(b).Washington, B.C.:
     U.S. Government Printing Office, June 1976.

U.S. General Accounting Office.  Report to Congress; To Protect
     Tomorrows Food Supply, Soil Conservation Needs Priority
     Attention.  CED-77-30.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Government
     Printing Office, 1977.

U.S. Geological Survey.  Quality of Rivers of the United States,
     1974 Water Year—Based on the National Stream Quality Accounting
     Network (NASQAN).  Open-File Report 77-151.  Reston, Virginia:
     U.S. Geological Survey,- February 1977.

U.S. House of Representatives, Select Committee on Population.
     Bomestic Consequences of United States Population  Change.
     Washington, B.C., Becember 1978.
                                 811

-------
Wischmeier, W.H. and B.C. Smith.  Predicting Rainfall-Erosion
     Losses from Cropland East of the Rocky Mountains - A Guide for
     Selection of Practices for Soil and Water Conservation.
     Agricultural Handbook No. 282 (1965).
CHAPTER 7 DRINKING WATER

Council on Environmental Quality.  Environmental Quality - 1976;  The
     Seventh Annual Report of the Council on Environmental Quality.
     Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1976.

	.  Environmental Quality - 1977:  The Eighth Annual Report of
     the Council on Environmental Quality.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1977.

	.  Environmental Quality - 1978:  The Ninth Annual Report of the
     Council on Environmental Quality.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1978.

 Craun, G.F.  "Bisease Outbreaks Caused by Brinking Water." Journal
     Water Pollution Federation 51  (1979), pp. 1751-1760.

 	.  "Waterborne Bisease, A  Status Report  Emphasizing
     Outbreaks in Groundwater Systems."   Groundwater 2 (1979).

National Bemonstration Water Project.  Brinking Water Supplies in
     Rural America.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S.  Government Printing
     Office, 1978.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  Third Report of the TSCA
     Interagency Testing Committee to the Administrator.
     Washington, B.C.:   U.S. Government Printing Office, 1979.

U.S. Water Resources Council.  The Nation's Water Resources:
     1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment.  Volume I.
     Summary Report.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, 1978.
CHAPTER 8 WATER RESOURCES

Bavis, P.  Testimony before the House Committee on Science and
     Technology on Ground Water Quality Research and Bevelopment.
     House Bocument Number 80.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Government
     Printing Office, 1978.
                                812

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Executive Office of the President, Office of Science and Technology
     Policy.  Scientific and Technological Aspects of Water Re-
     source Policy.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, January 19, 1978.

Haimes, Y.Y.  Water for Energy Development;  1975-2000.  Internal
     Report prepared for the Office of Technology Assessment, U.S.
     Congress, September 1977.

Hillhouse, R.A.  "The Federal Reserved Water Doctrine—Application to
     the Problem of Water for Oil Shale Development."  Land and Water
     Law Review 3 (1968).

Metcalf and Eddy, Inc.  Wastewater Engineering Treatment, Disposal,
     Reuse.  Second Edition.  New York:  McGraw-Hill Book Company,
     1979.

National Water Commission.  Water Policies for the Future.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1973.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Planning and Manage-
     ment.  EPA Agency Guidance for Fiscal Year 1980/1981.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1979.

U.S. Water Resources Council.  The Nation's Water Resources,
     Summary Report, Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, 1968.

	.   The Nation's Water Resources;  1975-2000, Second National
     Water Assessment.  Volume I, Summary Report.  Washington, D.C.:
     U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978.

Zink, A.R.  "Water Availability in Western United States."  Synthetic
     Liquid Fuels Development;  Assessment of Critical Factors, Vol.
     II—Analysis.ERDA 78-129-2.Washington, B.C.:U.S. Govern-
     ment Printing Office, 1976.
CHAPTER 9 MARINE POLLUTION

Carpenter, E.J.  "Power Plant Entrainment of Aquatic Organisms."
     Oceanus Magazine;  Marine Pollution (Fall 1974), p. 35.

Council on Environmental Quality.  Ocean Dumping;   A National Policy.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1970.

	.  Environmental Quality-1978:  The Ninth Annual Report of the
     Council on Environmental Quality.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1978.
                                 813

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Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  Man's Impact on the Global
     Environment—Report of the Study of Critical Environmental
     Problems (SCEP).  Cambridge, Massachusetts:   MIT Press,  1970.

National Academy of Sciences.  Marine Environmental Quality.
     Washington, D.C.:   National Academy of Sciences, 1971.

U.S. Department of Energy.  Energy in Focus:   Basic Data.   DOE/OPA-
     0020.  Washington, D.C.":U.S. Government Printing Office.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  Decision Series;  A Small Oil
     Spill at West Falmouth. EPA-600/9-79-007.Washington, D.C.:
     U.S. Government Printing Office, 1979.

	.  Research Summary:   Oil Spills.  EPA-600/8-79-007,  Office of
     Research and Development.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S.  Government
     Printing Office, 1979.

	.  Workshop on National Needs and Priorities for Ocean Pollution
     Research and Development and Monitoring^.EPA-600/8-79-012.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,  1978.
CHAPTER 10 SOLID AND HAZARDOUS WASTES

Argonne National Laboratory.  Environmental Control Implications of
     Generating Electric Power From Coal;   Technology Status Report.
     Volume II (ANL/ECT-1).  December 1976.

Bond, R. and C. Straub.  Handbook of Environmental Control,  Volume
     II:  Solid Waste.  Cleveland, Ohio:CRC Press,  1973.

Council on Environmental Quality.  Environmental Quality -  1978:
     Ninth Annual Report of the Council on Environmental Quality.
     Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, December
     1978.

Fred G. Hart Associates.  Impacts of the Designation of Energy-
     Related Waste as Special Waste.  New York, New York, March,
     1979.

	.  Preliminary Assessment of Cleanup Costs for National Hazard-
     ous Waste Problems.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S.  Environmental
     Protection Agency, Office of Solid Waste,  1979.

International Research and Technology Corporation, Forecasts of the
     Quantity and Composition of Solid Waste.  IRT-19300/R-3.June
     1979.
                                  814

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Maugh, T.H. II.  "An Environmental Time Bomb Gone Off."  Science
     204 (May 25, 1979).

	.  "Burial is Last Resort for Hazardous Wastes."  Science 204
     (June 22, 1979).

	.  "Hazardous Waste Technology Is Available."  Science 204 (June
     1, 1979).

The MITRE Corporation.  Assessment of the Impacts of Resource
     Recovery on the Environment.  MTR-8033.  McLean, Virginia:  The
     MITRE Corporation, December 1978.

	.  Environmental Data for Energy Technology Policy Analysis,
     Volume III;  Fossil Fuels.Draft MTR-7992.McLean,  Virginia:
     The MITRE Corporation, May 1979.

	.  Silvicultural Biomass Farms, Volume VI;   Forest and Mill
     Residues as Potential Sources of Biomass.  MTR-7347.   McLean,
     Virginia:The MITRE Corporation, May 1977.

Office of Technology Assessment, Congress of the United States.
     Materials and Energy from Municipal Waste.   Washington, D.C.:
     U.S. Government Printing Office, July 1979.

PEDCo Environmental Inc.  Study of Adverse Effects of Solid Waste
     from All Mining Activities on the Environment.  Draft.
     Washington, D.C.:   U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office
     of Solid Wastes, 1979.

Perham, C.  "Industrial Incineration."  EPA Journal:   Waste Alert
     (February 1979).

Radian Corporation.  Study of Nonhazardous Wastes from Coal-Fired
     Utilities.  Draft, DCN-200-18/-41-08.December 1978.

Research and Education Association.  Pollution Control Technology.
     New York, 1973.

Salo, D.J. and J.F. Henry.  "Wood Based Biomass  Resources  in the
     United States (Near Term and Long Term Prospects)."   Draft  in
     Proceedings of Workshop on Biomass Energy and Technology
     sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto,
     California (in press).

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  Cost Estimates for  Construc-
     tion of Publicly Owned Wastewater Treatment Facilities.  Needs
     Survey 1976 (MCD-48A).  EPA 44019-76-010.  Washington, D.C.:
     U.S. Government Printing Office, 1977.
                                 815

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	.  Energy From the West, Energy Resource Development Systems
     Report, Volume III;  Oil Shale.  EPA-60018-79-0606.   Washington,
     D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, March 1979.

	.  EPA Activities Under the Resource Conservation and  Recovery
     Act:  Fiscal Year 1978.  SW-755.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S.
     Government Printing Office, March 1979.

	.  Fourth Report to Congress:  Resource Recovery and Waste
     Reduction.  OSW-600.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government
     Printing Office, 1977.

	.  "Hazardous Waste Fact Sheet."  EPA Journal;   Waste Alert 5
     (February 1979).

	.  Industrial Waste Exchanges;  Fact Sheet.   SW-588.  Washing-
     ton, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978, p. 1.

	.  Methods for Identifying and Evaluating the Nature and Extent
     of Non-Point Sources of Pollutants.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S.
     Government Printing Office, No date.

	.  The Report to Congress;  Waste Disposal Practices and Their
     Effects on Ground Water.  Washington, B.C.:   U.S. Government
     Printing Office. No date.

	.  Revised Status Report - Hazardous Waste Sites.  Washington,
     B.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, June 1,  1979.

	.  Subtitle C, Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976
     Braft Environmental Impact Statement Appendices, Appendix J.
     Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,  January
     1979.

Whiteside, T.  The Pendulum and the Toxic Cloud;   The Course of
     Bioxin Contamination.  New Haven, Connecticut:   Yale University
     Press, 1979.
CHAPTER 11 TOXIC SUBSTANCES

Ames, B.N.  "Identifying Environmental Chemicals Causing Mutations
     and Cancers." Science 204 (1970), p. 587.

"Benzene Case Will Be Argued Buring Supreme Court's Fall Term."
     Chemical Regulation Reporter 2 (1979), p. 2245.
                                 816

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Bochinski, J.H., K.S. Schoultz, and J.A. Gideon.   "Pollution Control
     Practices—Meeting Emission Standards for Acryolonitrile."
     Chemical Engineering Process 75 (1979),  p. 53.

California Department of Public Health.   Occupational Diseases  in
     California Attributed to Pesticides and Other Agricultural
     Chemicals, 1969.  Sacramento, California:  Bureau of
     Occupational Health and Environmental Epidemiology,  1969.

"Clean Air Act Lead Standard Challenged for Alleged  Improprieties."
     Chemical Regulation Reporter 3 (1979), p. 744.

Council on Environmental Quality.  Environmental  Quality-1978;  The
     Ninth Annual Report of the Council on Environmental Quality.
     Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Government Printing  Office,  1978.

	. Environmental Statistics, 1978.   Springfield,  Virginia:
     National Technical Information Service,  1979.

	.  Toxic Substances.  Washington,  D.C.:   U.S.  Government
     Printing Office, April 1971.

Daughton, D.G and D.P.H. Hsieh.  "Parathion Utilization by  Bacterial
     Symbionts in a Chemostate."  Applied and Environmental
     Microbiology 34 (1977), p. 1975.

Doll, R.  "An Epidemiological Perspective of the Biology of Cancer."
     Cancer Research, 38 (1978), p. 3573.

Elinder, C.G. and T. Kjellerstrom.  "Cadmium Concentation in Samples
     of Human Kidney Cortex from the Nineteenth Century."  Ambio  6
     (1977), p. 270.

"Facts and Figures for the U.S. Chemical Industry."  Chemical  and
     Engineering News (June 11, 1979),  p. 47.

"First EPA Air Emission Standard to be  Proposed in  Early 1980."
     Chemical Regulation Reporter 3 (1979),  p.  730.

"Gas Stove, Lantern Fuel, Engine Oil Flush Most Affected by Benzene
     Ban."  Chemical Regulation Reporter 2 (1979),  p.  1783.

Hiatt, H.H., J.D. Watson, and J.A. Winston,  eds. Origins of Human
     Cancer.  Cold Spring Harbor,  New York:   Cold Spring Harbor
     Laboratory, 1977.
                                 817

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Hooper, N.K. et al.   "Toxaphene, a Complex Mixture of Polychloro-
      terpenes and a Major Insecticide, Is Mutagenic."  Science 205
      (1979), p. 591.                                   	

"Key  Chemicals:  Vinyl Chloride."  Chemical and Engineering News
      (June 18, 1979), p. 9.                                 ~~

March of Dimes National Foundation.  Facts.  New York:  National
      Foundation, 1975.

Palmisano, P.A., R.C. Sneed, and G.I. Cassady.  "Untaxed Whiskey and
      Fetal Lead Exposure."  Journal of Pediatrics 75 (1969), p.  869.

"Proposed Benzene Ban Deadline Extended Six Months by CPSC."
      Chemical Regulation Reporter 2 (1978), p. 1285.

"Report on Carcinogen Identification, Human Risk Assessment Issued by
      IRLG."  Chemical Regulation Reporter 2 (1979), p. 2039.

Rail, D. "Occupational Cancer Risk."  Science 203 (1979), p. 224.

Risebrough, R.W.,  J. Davis, and D.W. Anderson.  "The Biological
      Impact of Pesticides in the Environment."  Environmental Health
      Series 1.  J.W. Gillett, ed.  Eugene, Oregon!Oregon State
      University, 1970.

Ryan, J.P. and J.M. Hague. "Lead—1977."   Mineral Commodity Profiles.
     MCP-9.  Washington, D.C.:    U.S. Department of the Interior,
      Bureau of Mines, December 1977.

Smith, R.J.  "Toxic Substances:  EPA and  OSHA Are Reluctant Regula-
      tions."  Science 203 (1979), p.28.

Stanford Research  Institute.  Chemical Economics Handbook.
      573.2400A.   Palo Alto, California:Stanford University Press,
     August 1972.

Stephenson, M.E.  "An Approach to the Identification of Organic  Com-
     pounds Hazardous to the Environment  and Human Health."  Eco-
      toxicology and Environmental Safety  1 (1977), pp.  39-48.

Support Documentation Test Data Development Standards:   Chronic
     Health Effects Toxic Substances Control Act,  Section 4.
     EPA-560/11-79-001.   Washington, D.C.:   U.S.  Government Printing
     Office,  May 1979.

Tamburro,  C.H.,  "Health Effects of Vinyl  Chloride."  Texas  Reports on
     Biology and Medicine 37 (1978).
                                818

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U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare.   Atlas of Mortal-
     ity for U.S. Counties: 1950-1969.  Publication (NIH) 75-780.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,  1975.

        National Cancer Institute Carcinogenesis Technical Report
     Series 37.  Publication NIH 79-837.  Washington,  D.C.:   U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1979.

	.  Report of the Secretary's Commission on Pesticides and
     Their Relationship to Environmental Health.  Washington,  D.C.:
     U.S. Government Printing Office, 1969.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Assessment of Health Effects  on
     Benzene Germane to Low-Level Exposure.   EPA-600/1-78-061.
     Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,  September,
     1978.

 	.  Cadmium Health Effects;  Implications for Environmental
     Regulations.  External Draft, Review Copy.   Washington,  D.C.:
     U.S. Government Printing Office, July 1979.

	.  National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants—A
     Compilation.EPA-340/1-79-006.Washington, D.C.:U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1979.

Young, R.J., R.A. Rinsky, P.F. Infante, and J.K.  Wagoner.  "Benzene
     in Consumer Products."  Science 199 (1978),  p.  248.
CHAPTER 12 RADIATION

Brodeur, P.  The Zapping of America:  Microwaves,  Their Deadly Risk
     and the Cover-Up.  New York:  W.W. Norton and Company,  1977.

Gandhi, O.P.  "Polarization and Frequency Effects  on Whole Animal
     Absorption of RF Energy."  Proc. IEEE 62 (August 1974),  pp.
     1171-1175.

Keeny, S.M. et al.  Nuclear Power Issues and Choices.  Cambridge,
     Massachetts:  Ballinger Publishing Company,  1977.

Klement, A.W. Jr. et al.  Estimates of Ionizing Radiation Doses in
     the United States, 1960-2000.  ORP. CSD 72-1.  Washington,
     D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1972.

Land, C.E. "Estimate of Risk from Low-Dose Exposures to Ionizing
     Radiation."  Journal of the National Cancer Institute (in
     press) .


                                 819

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Lillienfeld, A.M.  Evaluation of the Health Status of Foreign
     Services and Other Employees from Selected European Posts.
     NTIS:  PB-288163.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Department of
     State, 1978.

Moghissi, A.A.  Radioactivity in Consumer Products.  NUREG/CP-0001.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978.

National Academy of Sciences, Advisory Committee on the Biological
     Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR).  The Effects on
     Populations of Exposure to Low Levels Ionizing Radiation.
     Washington, D.C.:National Academy of Sciences, 1972.

Rasmussen, N.C.  The Reactor Safety Study Report;   An Assessment of
     Accident Risks in the U.S. Commercial Power Plants.  WASH-1400-
     NUREG 75/014.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
     Commission, 1975.

U.S. Department of Energy, Annual Report to the Congress.  Volume 3.
     DOE/EIA-0173/3.  Washington, D.C.:   U.S.  Government Printing
     Office, 1978.

	•  Compilation and Assessment of Microwave Bioeffects;  Final
     Report—Selective Review of the Literature on the Biological
     Effects of Microwave in Relation to the Satellite Power
     System.  PNL-2364.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government
     Printing Office,  1978.

        National Energy Plan II.  Washington,  D.C.:  U.S. Government
     Printing Office, 1978.

	.  Report to the President.  Interagency Review Group on Nuclear
     Waste Management.  TID-294-42/UC-70.   Washington,  D.C.:   U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1979.

U.S. Department of Health, Education, and  Welfare.   Report of the
     Interagency Task Force on the Health  Effects of Ionizing
     Radiation.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, 1979.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  Radiological Quality of the
     Environment.  EPA 520/1-77-099.  Office of Radiation Programs.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,  1977.

U.S. General Accounting Office.  More Protection from Microwave
     Radiation Hazards Needed.  HRD-79-7.   Washington,  D.C.:   U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1978.
                                 820

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U.S. Senate, Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.
     Hearings on Radiation Health and Safety.  First Session on
     Oversight of Radiation Health and Safety, 95th Congress, Serial
     No. 95-A9, Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,
     1977.

	.  Microwave Irradiation of the U.S. Embassy in Moscow.  96th
     Congress, 1st Session.  Washington, B.C.:   U.S. Government
     Printing Office, April 1979.
CHAPTER 13 NOISE

Bolt, Beranek, and Newman, Inc.  Economic Impact Assessment of the
     Proposed Noise Control Regulation.No. 3246.Cambridge,
     Massachusetts:  Bolt, Beranek, and Newman, Inc., 1976.

Fidell, S.  "Nationwide Urban Noise Survey."  Journal of the
     Acoustical Society of America 64 (July 1978).

Institute of Transportation Engineers.  Transportation and Traffic
     Engineering Handbook.  Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey:   Prentice-
     Hall, 19767

Kaiser, E.J. et al.  Promoting Environmental Quality through Urban
     Planning and Controls.EPA 600/5-73-015.Washington, D.C.:
     U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1974.

National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.  Criteria for
     a Recommended Standard;  Occupational Exposure to Noise.  Pub.
     No. PB-213 463.  Rockville, Maryland:  National Institute for
     Occupational Safety and Health, 1972.

Shori, T.R. and E.A. McGatha.  A Real-World Assessment of  Noise
     Exposure.  Washington, B.C.:  U.S. Environmental Protection
     Agency, 1978.

U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administraton.
     Airport-Land Use Compatibility Planning.  Pub No. AC/150/5050-6.
     Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1977.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  Community Noise. Pub No. NTID
     300.3.  Washington, D.C.:  EPA Office of Noise Abatement and
     Control, 1971.
                                821

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    _.  EPA Noise Control Program—Progress to Date.  Washington,
     D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office, 1979.

    _.  Federal Noise Research in Noise Effects.  Washington, B.C.:
     U.S. Government Printing Office, 1978.

        Information on Levels of Environmental Noise Requisite to
     Protect Public Health and Welfare with an Adequate Margin of
     Safety.  Pub. No. 55079-9-74-004.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1974.

        Protective Noise Levels, Condensed Version of EPA Levels
    "Document.Pub. No. EPA 550/9-79-100.Washington, D.C.:U.S.
     Government Printing Office, 1978.

        Report to the President and Congress on Noise.  Pub.  No.
     PB-206 716.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,
     1971.

U.S. Water Resources Council, U.S. Department of Commerce, and U.S.
     Department of Agriculture.  1972 OBERS Projections of Economic
     Activity in the U.S.  Volume 4:  States.  Washington, D.C.:
     U.S. Government Printing Office, 1974.

Wyle Laboratories.  Noise Exposure of Civil Aircarrier Airplanes
     through the Year 2000.  Volume 1:  Methods, Procedures, Results.
     Pub. No. 550/9-79-313-1.  Washington, D.C.:  EPA Office of Noise
     Abatement and Control, 1979.
CHAPTER 14 ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Energy Research and Development Administration.  Synthetic Liquid
     Fuels Development;  Assessment of Critical Factors.  Volume
     III.  ERDA 76-129/3.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government
     Printing Office, May 1977.

Inhaber, H.  "Risk with Energy from Conventional and Nonconventional
     Sources."  Science 23 (February 23, 1979).

U.S. Department of Energy.  Environmental Analysis of Synthetic
     Liquid Fuels.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing
     Office, July 12, 1979.

	.  National Energy Plan II Appendix:  Environmental Trends and
     Impacts.  Washington, D.C.:  U.S. Government Printing Office,
     May 1979.
                                 822

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	. Programmatic  Oil Shale Environmental Impact Statement.
     Draft.  March 1979.

White, I.L. et  al.   Energy From the West;  Policy Analysis Report.
     U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Energy,
     Minerals and Industry.  EPA-600/7-79-083.  Washington, B.C.:
     U.S. Government Printing Office, 1979.
 •U.S. OOVQOWEMT PRHiniQ OFFICE : 1980
                                 823

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