&EPA
United States
Environmental Protect,on
Agency
Office of Exploratory
Research
Washington DC 20460
EPA-600/8-83-001
January 1983
Research and Developmoent
Southern Regional
Environmental
Assessment:
Environmental
Status Report
-------
EPA-600/8-83-001
January 1983
SOUTHERN REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT:
ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS REPORT
by:
Science and Public Policy Program
University of Oklahoma
Steven C. Ballard
Michael D. Devine
Basil G. Achilladelis
Michael A. Chartock
Elizabeth M. Gunn
Thomas E. James, Jr.
Richard L. Johnston
Rebecca S. Roberts
Karen J. Selland
Project Directors: Michael D. Devine and
Steven C. Ballard
Prepared for:
Office of Research and Development
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D.C. 20460
Project Officer:
Charles B. Oakley
Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies
Cooperative Agreement Number CR 808418-01-0
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NOTICE
Although the research described in this report
has been funded wholly or in part by the U.S. Envi-
ronmental Protection Anency, throuqh assistance
agreement CR 808418-01-0, the report has not been
subjected to the Agency's peer and policy review and
therefore, does not necessarily reflect the views
of the Agency. No official endorsement should be
inferred.
v? T
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P REFACE
This report has been prepared as a part of "An Integrated
Environmental Assessment of Federal Regions 4 and 6," being con-
ducted by an interdisciplinary research team from the Science and
Public Policy Program (S&PP) under a cooperative agreement with
the Office of Strategic Assessment and Special Studies, Office of
Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
The overall purpose of this study is to identify and assess future
environmental trends in the region and to evaluate alternative
strategies for environmental protection. This report is part of
Phase I of the study (begun in October 1980) and is intended to
summarize and synthesize existing information in order to identify
key driving forces and both current and future environmental con-
cerns. The report will serve as a basic reference document and
the results will help to guide future study directions.
The Project Director is Michael D. Devine, Director of Science
and Public Policy and Professor of Industrial Engineering; the
Co-Director is Steven C. Ballard, Assistant Director of Science
and Public Policy and Assistant Professor of Political Science.
The EPA Project Officer is Charles B. Oakley, Office of Strategic
Assessment and Special Studies, Office of Research and Develop-
ment .
Other members of the research team are: Basil G.
Achilladelis, Associate Professor of Chemistry; Michael A.
Chartock, Associate Professor of Zoology; Elizabeth M. Gunn,
Graduate Research Assistant (Political Science); Thomas E. James,
Jr., Assistant Professor of Political Science; Richard L.
Johnston, Graduate Research Assistant (Business Administration);
Rebecca S. Roberts, Assistant Professor of Geography; and Karen
Selland, Graduate Research Assistant (Sociology). Several other
persons also contributed to this study as co-authors of an earlier
draft report: Rachel C. Butler,- Graduate Research Assistant
(Geography); Carolyn M. Hock, Visiting Assistant Professor of
Geography, Gary D. Miller, Assistant Professor of Civil Engineer-
ing and Environmental Science; David A. Penn, Graduate Research
Assistant (Economics); and George W. Tauxe, Associate Professor of
Civil Engineering and Environmental Science. In addition, Larry W.
Canter, Director of the National Center for Ground Water Research
and Professor of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science at
the University of Oklahoma, has provided valuable advice during
these early stages of the project.
iii
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The support staff in the Science and Public Policy Program
also played a key role in producing this report. This includes:
Mary Zirabelman, Assistant to the Director; Ellen Ladd, Clerical
Supervisor, who spent tireless hours editing, proofreading, and
compiling this material; and Nick Evans and Lennet Bledsoe, tech-
nical typists. The research support staff who also contributed
greatly to the substance of this report includes: Martha Jordan,
Librarian, and Rod Hedges, Research Team Assistant, who did most
of the graphics for this report.
IV
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ABSTRACT
During the past several decades, the southern regions of the
U.S. have experienced rapid change which is expected to continue
into the foreseeable future. Growth in population, industry, and
resource development has been attributed to several advantages
such as a relatively inexpensive labor force, a mild climate, and
the availability of natural resources—energy, water, land, and
others. While this growth has tremendous economic benefits for
the region, it can also create adverse environmental changes, in-
cluding air and water pollution, solid waste disposal, modifica-
tion of natural habitats, and hazardous material spills. The
purpose of this Environmental Status Report is to summarize and
synthesize existinginformation in order to identify key driving
forces and both current and future environmental concerns in the
region. It is part of a Southern Regional Environmental Assess-
ment study, whose purpose is to identify long-term environmental
changes in the region and to evaluate alternative strategies for
balancing economic growth and environmental protection. The
geographic scope of this study is the 13-state area comprising
Federal Regions 4 and 6.
This report consists of three volumes. Volume I provides an
overview of the research project, describes characteristics of the
study area, and identifies general trends contributing to economic
and environmental change in the southern region—including eco-
nomic and population shifts, industrial growth, and social values
and attitudes. Volume II examines in more detail growth in sev-
eral economic sectors which are particularly important to the
Sunbelt and are driving forces behind environmental change—energy
development, chemical industry, textiles, agriculture and fores-
try, and the pulp and paper industry. Volume III describes the
current status and future trends in several environmental cate-
gories: air quality, land and coastal zone use, water availabil-
ity, water quality, and hazardous waste.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
SOUTHERN REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS REPORT
Page
Disclaimer ii
Preface iii
Abstract v
List of Figures xiii
List of Tables xvi
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations xxiii
INTRODUCTION xxvii
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY
1.1 THE SUNBELT 1-1
1.2 REASONS FOR STUDYING THE SUNBELT 1-2
1.3 THE SOUTHERN REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT 1-8
1.4 ORGANIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS REPORT .... 1-11
CHAPTER 2: GROWTH AND CHANGE IN THE SUNBELT
HIGHLIGHTS 2-i
2.1 INTRODUCTION 2-1
2.2 CHARACTERISTICS ENCOURAGING ECONOMIC GROWTH 2-3
2.3 CHARACTERISTICS ATTRACTING PEOPLE 2-30
2.4 SUMMARY 2-41
VII
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Table of Contents (continued)
Page
CHAPTER 3: ECONOMIC AND POPULATION CHANGES
HIGHLIGHTS 3-i
3.1 INTRODUCTION 3-1
3.2 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS 3-1
3.3 POPULATION 3-3
3.4 EMPLOYMENT 3-17
3.5 INCOME , 3-26
3.6 BENEFITS OF GROWTH 3-32
3.7 ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS CREATED BY POPULATION GROWTH . . 3-33
3.8 SUMMARY 3-37
APPENDIX 3A: BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
PROJECTION METHODOLOGY 3-42
APPENDIX 3B: THE FOUR MAJOR REGIONS AS DEFINED
IN THIS STUDY 3-44
THE STANDARD FEDERAL REGIONS 3-44
APPENDIX 3C: SOUTHERN POPULATIONS: LARGE METROPOLITAN
AREAS, 1960-1977 3-45
CHAPTER 4: INDUSTRIAL TRENDS
HIGHLIGHTS 4-i
4.1 INTRODUCTION 4-1
4.2 METHODOLOGY 4-2
4.3 INDUSTRIAL TRENDS 4-4
4.4 GROWTH OF AGRICULTURE, MINING, AND MANUFACTURING
INDUSTRIES 4-7
4.5 REGIONS OF CONCENTRATED INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY 4-21
4.6 SUMMARY 4-22
Vlll
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Table of Contents (continued)
Page
APPENDIX 4A: REGIONS 4 AND 6 EARNINGS BY INDUSTRY,
BY STATE—1978 AND 2010 4-25
CHAPTER 5: ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES AND ATTITUDES
HIGHLIGHTS 5-i
5.1 INTRODUCTION 5^-1
5.2 PUBLIC ATTITUDES ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT , 5-2,
5.3 OTHER INDICATORS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT 5-20
5.4 SUMMARY 5-23
CHAPTER 6: ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
HIGHLIGHTS 6-i
6.1 INTRODUCTION 6-1
6.2 SOUTHERN ENERGY TRENDS 6-2
6.3 PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS 6-10
6.4 DIRECT USE OF COAL 6-24
6.5 SYNTHETIC FUELS FROM COAL AND OIL SHALE 6-37
6.6 NUCLEAR ENERGY RESOURCES 6-53
6.7 RENEWABLE BIOMASS ENERGY . 6-67
6.8 PEAT AS AN ENERGY RESOURCE 6-77
6.9 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY RESOURCES 6-88
6.10 SUMMARY 6-99
IX
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Table of Contents (continued)
Page
CHAPTER 7: THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
HIGHLIGHTS 7-i
7.1 INTRODUCTION 7-1
7.2 CURRENT STATUS 7-2
7.3 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES 7-17
7.4 SUMMARY 7-29
CHAPTER 8: THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY
HIGHLIGHTS 8-i
8.1 INTRODUCTION 8-1
8.2 CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE TRENDS 8-2
8.3 ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS 8-7
8.4 SUMMARY 8-11
CHAPTER 9: AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOREST MANAGEMENT
HIGHLIGHTS 9-i
9.1 INTRODUCTION 9-1
9.2 AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT 9-2
9.3 FOREST LAND AND TIMBER PRODUCTS 9-38
9.4 SUMMARY 9-50
APPENDIX 9A: INSECTICIDE AND HERBICIDE USE ON MAJOR
FIELD CROPS, HAY, PASTURE, AND RANGELAND. . 9-56
CHAPTER 10: THE PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY
HIGHLIGHTS 10-i
10.1 INTRODUCTION 10-1
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Table of Contents (continued)
Page
10.2 PULP AND PAPERMAKING PROCESS 10-1
10.3 CURRENT STATUS 10-4
10.4 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS 10-9
10.5 ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS 10-13
10.6 SUMMARY 10-22
CHAPTER 11: AIR QUALITY
HIGHLIGHTS 11-i
11.1 INTRODUCTION 11-1
11.2 EXISTING CONDITIONS 11-1
11.3 TRENDS AND ISSUES 11-36
11.4 SUMMARY 11-53
APPENDIX 11A: BOUNDARIES OF AIR QUALITY CONTROL REGIONS. . 11-62
APPENDIX 11B: COMPARISON OF POLLUTION STANDARD INDEX . . . 11-63
APPENDIX 11C: PARTICULATE EPISODE CRITERIA 11-64
CHAPTER 12: LAND AND COASTAL ZONE USE
HIGHLIGHTS 12-i
12.1 INTRODUCTION » 12-1
12.2 EXISTING CONDITIONS 12-1
12.3 TRENDS AND ISSUES 12-15
12.4 SUMMARY 12-48
XI
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Table of Contents (continued)
Page
CHAPTER 13: WATER AVAILABILITY
HIGHLIGHTS 13-i
13.1 INTRODUCTION 13-1
13.2 EXISTING CONDITIONS 13-1
13.3 FUTURE TRENDS AND ISSUES 13-15
13.4 SUMMARY 13-41
APPENDIX 13A: METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS OF THE SECOND
NATIONAL WATER ASSESSMENT 13-48
CHAPTER 14: WATER QUALITY
HIGHLIGHTS 14-i
14.1 INTRODUCTION 14-1
14.2 EXISTING CONDITIONS 14-2
14.3 FUTURE TRENDS AND ISSUES 14-28
14.4 SUMMARY 14-47
CHAPTER 15: HAZARDOUS WASTES
HIGHLIGHTS 15-i
15.1 INTRODUCTION 15-1
15.2 CURRENT STATUS 15-2
15.3 FUTURE TRENDS AND ISSUES 15-15
15.4 SUMMARY 15-25
APPENDIX 15A: SUMMARY OF RCRA REGULATIONS 15-31
xn
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LIST OF FIGURES
Page
1-1: The Sunbelt Study Area 1-2
1-2: Manufacturing Employment 1-4
1-3: Population Growth 1-4
1-4: Consumptive Energy Use 1-6
1-5: Growth of Agricultural Earnings (%): 1978-2010. . . . 1-6
1-6: Organization of the Environmental Status Report. . . . 1-12
2-1: (a) Population Growth Rate, (b) Employment Growth
Rate, and (c) Per Capita Income for the
South and Nonsouth 2-2
2-2: Employment in Basic Industries in the South,
1920-1980 2-6
3-1: Regional Population as a Percentage of the
U.S. Total 3-5
3-2: Population Growth Rates in the Sunbelt States .... 3-7
3-3: Average Annual Population Growth Rate 3-9
3-4: Net Interregional Migration, 1970-1975 3-11
3-5: Percentage of Counties Experiencing Net Outmigration
Loss or Net Population Loss 3-15
3-6: Rate of Change in Total Employment and Manufacturing
Employment 3-22
5-1: Percent Saying That We're Spending "Too Little"
on Eleven Problems 5-4
5-2: Rating Improvements in Local Air And Water
Quality Over the Past Five Years 5-6
5-3: Views of the Environmental Movement 5-7
5-4: Views About Pollution Control, 1977-1980 5-9
5-5: Cumulative Percentage of People Willing to
Accept New Industrial Installation at
Various Distances From Their Homes 5-17
6-1: Consumptive Energy Use 6-4
6-2: Coal Fields of the Coterminous United States 6-26
6-3: Distribution of U.S. Oil Shale Resources 6-41
6-4: Coal Gasification and Liquefaction Projects 6-43
6-5: Operating Uranium Mills in the U.S.,
January 1, 1980 6-56
Xlll
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List of Figures (continued)
Page
6-6: Nuclear Power Reactors in the U.S 6-60
6-7: Proposed Sites for a Permanent High Level
Radioactive Waste Repository 6-63
6-8: Usable Crop Residues and Potential Near-Term
Herbage Production 6-73
6-9: North Carolina Peat Resource Areas 6-81
6-10: Florida Peat Resource Areas 6-83
6-11: Louisiana Peat Resource Areas 6-85
6-12: Known and Potential Hydrothermal Resources 6-91
6-13: Texas Geothermal Resource Regions 6-93
7-1: World Chemical Production 7-19
7-2: Water Use by the Chemical Industry 7-23
9-1: Energy and Fertilizer Requirements to Achieve
Moderate Growth Projections 9-27
9-2: Commercial Timberland as a Percentage of
Land Area 9-40
10-1: Southern Pulp Mills in 1977 10-7
10-2: Capital Expenditures for Pollution
Abatement, 1973-1978 10-11
11-1: Isopleths of Total Number of Forecast-Days of High
Meteorological Potential for Air Pollution, etc. . 11-6
11-2: Emissions of Criteria Pollutants in 1975 11-16
11-3: Regions 4 and 6 Nonattainment 11-26
11-4: Violations of Ozone Standards 11-27
11-5: Air Quality Control Regions in Region 6: etc. . . . 11-39
11-6: Air Quality Control Regions in Region 4: etc. . . . 11-41
11-7: Sensitivity to Acid Rain 11-44
11-8: Projected Nonattainment Areas for Regions 4 and 6. . 11-48
11-9: Class I Areas in Region 6 11-50
11-10: Class I Areas in Region 4 11-51
12-1: Natural Ecoregions of the Sunbelt 12-6
12-2: South Atlantic Coastal Area 12-12
12-3: Gulf Coast and South Florida Coastal Areas 12-14
12-4: Land Use Patterns in the U.S. and the Sunbelt. . . . 12-16
12-5: Bottomland Hardwood Forest Clearing Rate Comparison. 12-33
12-6: Potential Coal Strip Mining Areas 12-36
12-7: Distribution of Important Resource Problems 12-50
13-1: Surface Water Laws 13-3
13-2: Water Resources Regions. . 13-7
13-3: Annual Precipitation 13-8
13-4: Ground Water Resources of the Sunbelt 13-9
13-5: Projected Water Consumption in the Sunbelt 13-16
xiv
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List of Figures (continued)
Page
13-6: Water Use by the Chemical Industry, 1975-2000. . . . 13-21
13-7: Ground Water Overdraft and Related Problems 13-24
13-8: The Ogallala Aquifer 13-28
13-9: Ground Water Mining, Ogallala Aquifer,
Hale County, Texas 13-29
13-10: Principal Sources of Ground Water in Florida .... 13-31
13-11: Current Region-Wide Problems: Water Availability. . 13-33
13-12: Significant Water Quality Problems in the South. . . 13-34
13-13: Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway 13-36
14-1: Surface Water Pollution Problems from Point Sources. 14-8
14-2: Surface Water Pollution Problems
from Nonpoint Sources 14-11
14-3: Erosion and Sedimentation 14-13
14-4: Oil Spill Data 14-14
14-5: Ground Water Pollution Problems 14-19
14-6: Drinking Water Quality Problems 14-27
15-1: Hazardous Waste Management System 15-18
xv
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LIST OF TABLES
Page
1-1: The Southern Regional Environmental Assessment. . . . 1-9
2-1: Structure of Employment in the South
and Nonsouth, 1920 2-5
2-2: Median Wage or Salary Income for Males, 1969 2-8
2-3: Labor Union Membership as a Percent of
Nonagricultural Employment, 1978 2-9
2-4: Days Idled Due to Work Stoppages per
Nonagricultural Employee, 1978 . 2-10
2-5: Average Retail Price of Energy to
Industrial Users, 1980 2-13
2-6: Rates of Growth of Energy-Intensive Industries. . . . 2-15
2-7: Sunbelt Share and Growth of Raw Material
Oriented Industries, 1978 2-17
2-8: Regional Imbalances in Federal
Spending and Taxes, 1979 2-25
2-9: Southern State Imbalances in Federal
Spending and Taxes, 1979 2-26
2-10: Regional Population by Size
of Metropolitan Area, 1977 2-34
2-11: Urban Intermediate Budget
for a Four-Person Family, 1978 2-37
2-12: 1970 Quality-of-Life Rating for
States in the Study Area 2-39
3-1: Regional Distribution of Population 1960-2000 .... 3-4
3-2: Total Population by State for the Southern Region . . 3-6
3-3: Net Migration for the Southern Region 3-10
3-4: Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Population Growth. . 3-13
3-5: Increase in the Proportion and Number of Persons
Over 65 in the South 3-17
3-6: Employment by Region and State, 1969-2010 3-18
3-7: Change in Manufacturing Employment, 1978-2010 .... 3-20
3-8: Index of Employment/Population, 1969-2010 3-23
3-9: Unemployment and Labor Force Participation Rates. . . 3-25
3-10: Per Capita Income 3-27
3-11: Earnings Per Employee 3-28
3-12: Geographic Distribution of Change
in Per Capita Income 3-30
3-13: Percentage of Population Below Poverty Level 3-31
xv i
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List of Tables (continued)
Page
4-1: Region 4 Sector Earnings 4-5
4-2: Region 6 Sector Earnings 4-6
4-3: Region 4 Earnings in Manufacturing, Mining,
and Agriculture . 4-9
4-4: Region 6 Earnings in Manufacturing, Mining,
and Agriculture 4-10
4-5: States Projected to Have High Earnings in Selected
Industries in 2010 4-11
5-1: Self Identification as an "Environmentalist" 5-8
5-2: Views of Sunbelt Residents About Pollution
Control in 1980 5-10
5-3: Views About Economic Growth and
Environmental Protection 5-11
5-4: Public Attitudes Toward Building a Plant On a
Marsh Which Supports a Rare Bird Species 5-12
5-5: Public Attitudes Toward Habitat Protection
for Wildlife 5-13
5-6: Public Attitudes Toward Natural Resource
Development by Region 5-14
5-7: Views on the Use of Nuclear Power in the U.S.
by Region 5-16
5-8: Support for Government Prohibition of Various
Chemical Risks 5-19
5-9: Emphasis on Environmental Issues
by States in Regions 4 and 6 5-21
6-1: Gross Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector 6-6
6-2: Energy Consumption by Major Fuel Sources 6-7
6-3: Electricity Generation: Capacity and Units by
Fuel Type 6-9
6-4: Proved Reserves of Petroleum and Natural Gas 6-11
6-5: Petroleum and Natural Gas Production 6-14
6-6: Operating Refineries in the Sunbelt 6-16
6-7: Future Production of Petroleum and Interstate
Gas . 6-18
6-8: Intrastate Gas Production Projections ... 6-19
6-9: Well Drilling Activity 6-20
6-10: Selected Environmental Issues for Oil and
Gas Development 6-22
6-11: Coal Production and Use 6-25
6-12: Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 1976 . . . 6-27
6-13: Recoverable Coal Reserves from Producing Mines,
1979 6-29
xvn
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List of Tables (continued)
Page
6-14: Coal Production Projections 6-30
6-15: Electricity Generating Capacity from Coal Steam . . . 6-32
6-16: Annual Coal Requirements for Electric Utilities . . . 6-34
6-17: Selected Environmental Issues in the Production
and Direct Use of Coal 6-35
6-18: Resource Requirements Associated with Synfuel
Conversion Technologies, Based on Preliminary
Design Studies 6-39
6-19: Devonian Oil Shale Resources Recoverable by IGT
HYTORT Process 6-42
6-20: Coal Gasification and Liquefaction Projects 6-44
6-21: Selected Environmental Issues for Synfuels. ..... 6-50
6-22: Distribution of Uranium Reserves 6-55
6-23: Land Held for Uranium Exploration and Mining. .... 6-57
6-24: 1979 Uranium Drilling 6-58
6-25: The Market for Nuclear Power 6-58
6-26: Nuclear Generating Capacity in the Sunbelt 6-61
6-27: Selected Environmental Issues for Nuclear Energy. . . 6-65
6-28: Biomass Energy Products, Feedstocks, and Costs. . . . 6-69
6-29: Fossil Fuel Costs, Mid-1980 6-70
6-30: Estimates of Biomass Energy Potential by 2000 .... 6-71
6-31: Selected Environmental Issues of Biomass Fuels
Production 6-76
6-32: Estimated U.S. Peat Reserves and Potential Energy . . 6-79
6-33: Selected Environmental Issues of Peat Development . . 6-87
6-34: National Geothermal Utilization Goals 6-89
6-35: Estimates of Total Geopressured Resource, Onshore/
Offshore the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast 6-95
6-36: Selected Environmental Issues of Geothermal
Development . 6-97
7-1: Shipments and Capital Investment in the Manu-
facturing Sector and in Chemicals by State 7-4
7-2: Value of Shipments by State and by Sector of the
Chemical Industry 7-5
7-3: Leading Sectors of the Chemical Industry by State . . 7-6
7-4: Employment and Income by State in Manufacturing and
in the Chemical Industry, 1977 7-8
7-5: Growth of Manufacturing and the Chemical
Industry, 1972-1977 7-11
7-6: Oil and Gas and Oil Refining Industries 7-13
7-7: Federal Laws Dealing with Toxic Substances. ..... 7-15
7-8: Industry Capital Spending for Pollution Control
Projects 7-16
XV 111
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List of Tables (continued)
Page
7-9: Industries Seen as Having Done a "Poor Job"
of Complying with [Environmental] Laws
and Guidelines 7-18
7-10: Reported and Projected Industry Earnings for
Chemicals and Allied Products . 7-21
7-11: Feedstock, Petrochemicals, and Industries Dependent
on Petrochemicals 7-28
8-1: Textile Industry Employment 8-3
8-2: Textile Industry Earnings 8-4
8-3: Industry Employment--Textiles as a Percent of
Total Manufacturing 8-5
8-4: Industry Earnings—Textiles as a Percent
of Total Manufacturing 8-5
8-6: Estimates of Textile Solid Waste, 1974 8-10
9-1: Agricultural Land Use in Regions 4 and 6, 1977. . . . 9-3
9-2: Cash Receipts From Farm Marketing, 1979 9-5
9-3: Acreage Planted to Major Crops, 1981 9-7
9-4: Fertilizers Applied to Harvested Acreages 9-8
9-5: Insecticide Use on Major Crops in the South and
the U.S 9-11
9-6: Pesticide Application Rates in the South 9-13
9-7: Insecticide Application Rates to Selected Major
Crops, by Region 9-14
9-8: Herbicides Used on Major Crops in the South and
the U.S 9-16
9-9: Herbicide Application Rates to Selected Major
Crops, by Region 9-17
9-10: Irrigated Land in the Sunbelt 9-19
9-11: Land Use Shifts, 1967 to 1975 9-22
9-12: Current Cropland and Nonfederal Land in Other
Uses with Cropland Conversion Potential, 1977 . . . 9-23
9-13: Projected Growth in Agricultural Industry Earnings. . 9-25
9-14: Major Factors Affecting Crop Production 9-26
9-15: Low-Till Farming in the South by Region 9-30
9-16: Production and Export of Wheat, Soybeans,
Feedgrains, and Cotton 9-33
9-17: Water, Soil, and Herbicide Leaving Conventional
and No-Till Corn Fields 9-37
9-18: Forest Land Area by Ecosystem and Section,
Region, and State, 1977 9-41
9-19: Ownership of Commercial Forest in 1977 9-42
9-20: Net Annual Growth and Removal of Growing Stock, 1976 9-44
xix
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List of Tables (continued)
Page
9-21: Historic and Projected U.S Demand for Lumber
and Plywood 9-45
9-22: Projected Roundwood and Sawtimber Supplies in
the South and U.S 9-47
9-23: Projected Growth in Lumber Products Industry
Earnings 9-48
10-1: Southern Pulping Capacity by Process Type 10-3
10-2: Pulpwood Production in the South, 1978 10-5
10-3: Woodpulp Supply and Consumption 10-5
10-4: Southern Pulp Mill Capacity, 1977 10-6
10-5: Paper and Board Production, 1978 10-8
10-6: Consumption of Paper and Board 10-9
10-7: Pulp and Paper Earnings, 1978-2010 10-14
10-8: Freshwater Withdrawals and Consumption 10-15
10-9: Proposed Pulp and Paper Mill
Effluent Guidelines 10-17
10-10: Pulp Mill Effluent 10-18
10-11: Average Annual Pulp and Paper Discharge Levels. . . . 10-19
10-12: Toxic Pollutants of the Pulp and Paper Industry . . . 10-23
11-1: Major Regulatory Mechanisms for Air Pollution
Control 11-2
11-2: State Contribution to Regional Emissions of
Criteria Pollutants, 1978 11-8
11-3: Major Sources of Criteria Pollutants for States
in Region 4, 1978 11-9
11-4: Major Sources of Criteria Pollutants for States
in Region 6, 1978 11-13
11-5: Emissions Inventories, Region 4 11-18
11-6: Frequency of Violations of EPA Criteria Pollutant
Standards by Counties in the Ten Federal
Regions, 1978 11-24
11-7: PSI Values for Six Southern SMSA's, 1976-1978. . . . 11-29
11-8: Cities in Nonattainment Areas, Region 4, 1976-1977 . 11-30
11-9: Birmingham Particulate Episodes, 1971-1981 11-32
11-10: Program Status for Potentially Hazardous Air
Pollutants Under CAA 11-35
11-11: Major Sources of Trace Element Emissions for
Regions 4 and 6, 1975 11-36
11-12: Annual SO2 and NOX Emissions, 1975-1990 11-40
11-13: Regional Distribution of Tall Stacks Built
by Electric Utilities, 1970-1979 11-45
xx
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List of Tables (continued)
Page
11-14: Problem Characterization Matrix: Air Quality. . . . 11-54
12-1: Federal Statutes Regulating Surface Uses ...... 12-3
12-2: Summary of State Regulations Protecting Critical
Habitats and Endangered Species 12-4
12-3: Selected Legislation on Land Use and Environmental
Controls in Florida 12-5
12-4: Major Natural Ecosystem Types in the
Southern Region 12-7
12-5: Wetland Areas of the Southern Region, 1956 12-10
12-6: Coastal Zone Modification 12-11
12-7: Forestland of the Sunbelt by Ownership and
Management Agency, 1977 12-21
12-8: Rangeland of the Sunbelt by Ownership and
Management Agency, 1977 12-22
12-9: Protected Acreage Within the Southern Region .... 12-24
12-10: Pesticide Residues in Agricultural Soils ...... 12-27
12-11: Representative Erosion Rates with Various
Land Uses 12-28
12-12: Erosion From Cropland in the U.S., 1977 12-29
12-13: Cropland Soil Erosion Due to Water
and Wind, 1977 12-31
12-14: Conversion of Land to Urban, Transportation, and
Water Uses, 1967-1977 12-32
12-15: Soil Conservation Service Assessment of Land
Disturbed by Surface Mining
as of July 1, 1977 12-34
12-16: Environment Change 1952-1974 for the Mississippi
Delta 12-38
12-17: Commercial and Marine Recreational Fisheries
Catch by State 12-40
12-18: Examples of Coastal Water Improvement 12-41
12-19: Numbers of Species Federally Designated as
Endangered, Threatened, Proposed, or In-Review,
September, 1978 12-46
12-20: Examples of Critical Habitat 12-47
12-21: Important Resource Problems in Federal Regions
4 and 6 Identified for 1980-85 12-49
12-22: Environmental Matrix: Land and
Coastal Zone Use 12-51
13-1: Treaties and Compacts Affecting Water Resources
iri the Sunbelt 13-5
13-2: Fresh Water Use in Water Regions of the Sunbelt,
1975 13-10
xxi
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List of Tables (continued)
Page
13-3: Water Withdrawals in Region 6, 1975 13-11
13-4: Water Consumption in Region 6, 1975. ... 13-12
13-5: Water Withdrawals in Region 4, 1975 13-13
13-6: Water Consumption in Region 4, 1975 13-14
13-7: Water Consumption in Region 6, 1975 and 2000 .... 13-17
13-8: Water Consumption in Region 4, 1975 and 2000 .... 13-18
13-9: Manufacturing Water Use and Growth Projections . . . 13-20
13-10: Water Use by Major Industries in Key Resource
Regions, 1975-2000 13-22
13-11: Ground Water Management in Sunbelt States 13-25
13-12: Problem Characterization Matrix: Water
Availability 13-42
14-1: Water Pollution Impacts from
Point Sources, 1977 14-7
14-2: Nonpoint Pollution 14-10
14-3: Summary of Ground Water Quality
in Regions 4 and 6 14-18
14-4: National Interim Primary Drinking Water
Standards 14-24
14-5: Organic Compounds Found in Ground Water 14-25
14-6: Significant Potential Water Pollution Sources. . . . 14-29
14-7: Point Source Pollution Trends 14-33
14-8: Estimated Mix of U.S. Urban Runoff Pollution .... 14-37
14-9: Projections of Agricultural Pollutants . . 14-40
14-10: State Ground Water Protection Programs 14-45
14-11: Problem Characterization Matrix:
Water Quality 14-48
15-1: Major Provisions of the Resource Conservation
and Recovery Act of 1976 15-3
15-2: Summary of Hazardous Waste Generated
by Federal Region, 1975 15-7
15-3: 1980 Industrial Hazardous Waste Generation
by Industry, by Federal Region 15-9
15-4: Hazardous Wastes Generated by Industries
Grouped by Standard Industrial Classification
by State 15-13
15-5: Growth Projections for Major
Hazardous Waste Generators , 15-16
15-6: Problem Characterization Matrix:
Hazardous Wastes 15-26
xxn
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LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AFY
AQCR
BACT
BAT
bbl/Gd
bbl/d
BCT
bgd
BEA
bgpy
BLM
BMP
BOD
bpdoe
CAA
CEQ
cfd
cfs
C/km
CO
COD
C02
CWA
CWP
DOE
DO I
EPA
FWPCA
GAC
GAO
GNP
gpd
GSU
HBG
HC
H2S
IGT
IPM
IRPS
LEG
MAFY
acre-feet per year
Air Quality Control Region
best available control technology
best available technology economically
achievable
barrels per calendar day
barrels per day
best conventional pollutant control
technology
billion gallons per day
Bureau of Economic Analysis
billion gallons per year
Bureau of Land Management
best management practices
biological oxygen demand
barrels per day oil equivalent
Clean Air Act
Council on Environmental Quality
cubic feet per day
cubic feet per second
degree centigrade per kilometer
carbon monoxide
chemical oxygen demand
carbon dioxide
Clean Water Act
coal workers' pneumoconiosis
Department of Energy
Department of the Interior
Environmental Protection Agency
Federal Water Pollution Control Act
granular activated carbon
General Accounting Office
Gross National Product
gallons per day
Gulf States Utilities Company
High-Btu Gas
hydrocarbons
hydrogen sulfide
Institute for Gas Technology
Integrated Pest Management
Important Research Problems
Low-Btu Gas
thousand acre-feet per year
XX 111
-------
MBG
mg/1
ml
MMAFY
MMbbl
MMbbl/d
MMgpy
MMscf/d
mrem
MW
NAAQS
NCA
NCAQ
NEDS
NOX
NO2
NPDES
NRG
NSPS
OECD
OSHA
OTA
ox
PCS
pCi/1
PVC
PH
ppb
ppm
PSD
PSI
Q or quad
R&D
RCRA
RFF
S&PP
SEAS
SIC
SIP
SMCRA
SMSA
SOX
SO2
804
SWRI
TCE
tcf
TOSCA
tpd
Medium-Btu Gas
milligrams per liter
milliliter(s)
million acre-feet per year
million barrels
million barrels per day
million gallons per year
million standard cubic feet per day
millirem
megawatt(s)
National Ambient Air Quality Standards
National Coal Association
National Commission on Air Quality
National Emissions Data System
oxides of nitrogen
nitrogen dioxide
National Pollutant Discharge Elimination
System
Nuclear Regulatory Commission
New Source Performance Standards
Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development
Occupational Safety and Health
Administration
Office of Technology Assessment
photochemical oxidants
polychlorinated biphenyl
picocuries per liter
polyvinyl chloride
acidity/alkalinity
parts per billion
parts per million
prevention of significant deterioration
Pollutant Standard Index
quadrillion Btu
research and development
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act
Resources for the Future
Science and Public Policy Program
Strategic Environmental Assessment System
Standard Industrial Classification
State Implementation Plans
Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act
Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area
oxides of sulfur
sulfur dioxide
sulfate
Southwest Research Institute
trichloroethylene
trillion cubic feet
Toxic Substances Control Act
tons per day
xxiv
-------
tpy tons per year
TSP total suspended particulates
tu turbidity units
TVA Tennessee Valley Authority
ug/m3 micrograms per cubic meter
USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture
USGS U.S. Geological Survey
uranium oxide and/or yellowcake
XXV
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INTRODUCTION
This is an environmental status report produced as part of
Phase I of the Southern Regional Environmental Assessment (SREA).
The purpose of the total study is to identify and assess trends in
Regions 4 and 6 and to evaluate alternative strategies for
environmental protection. This report summarizes and synthesizes
existing information on the study area. It describes prevailing
characteristics and trends in the economics and the environment of
the Sunbelt. It is intended to serve as a basic reference and
guide to future study directions.
Chapters 1 through 5 introduce the study and describe key
characteristics of the study area—those which are likely to create
or be affected by environmental problems. Chapter 1 provides a
brief overview of the Sunbelt Study area and the reasons for
studying it. Chapter 1 also describes the concepts and purposes of
the SREA and identifies Phase I activities. Chapter 2 examines the
causes of population and economic growth in the South. The first
section deals with factors encouraging economic growth, including
resource cost and availability, development of regional markets,
transportation systems, and governmental policies. The second part
addresses those characteristics which may attract people, including
the effects of amenities on retired and labor force migration and
on industrial siting decisions. Chapters 3 and 4, building on the
economic and demographic forces presented in Chapter 2, discuss
economic, population, and industrial trends in the study area.
Chapter 3 profiles the current and projected patterns of southern
growth and change by comparing population, income, and employment
across the study area. It identifies unique characteristics of the
southern region and describes how the changing structure of the
southern economy cannot only bring many benefits but can also
adversely affect the environment. Chapter 4 presents an industrial
profile of the study area. Key industries likely to cause
environmental change are identified, growth projections are
presented, and probable locations for growth industries are
discussed. Chapter 5 discusses the social and political context
within which decisions about economic development and environmental
protection are made. It depicts public attitudes and values about
the environment; trade-offs among the environment, energy, and
economics; and the factors determining the degree of public support
for environmental issues.
Chapters 6 through 10 discuss in detail some of the key causal
factors likely to be associated with environmental change in the
southern regions. Chapter 6 begins with a discussion of energy
consumption and production patterns in the area. The remainder of
the chapter examines current status and potential developments in
oil and gas, coal, synthetic fuel, biomass, nuclear, peat, and
geothermal energy resources. Anticipated locations and
xxv ii
-------
environmental impacts of these developments are discussed. Chapters
7 through 10 describe key economic sectors in terms of their
current status and forecasted economic growth and the environmental
implications of those developments. The following categories are
included: the chemical industry, textiles, agriculture and
forestry, and the pulp and paper industry.
Chapters 11 through 15 discuss five categories of environmental
concerns: air quality, land and coastal zone uses, water
availability, water quality, and hazardous wastes. Each of these
chapters links the environmental concerns in that category to one
or more of the driving forces discussed in Chapters 6 through 10.
Each begins with a brief description of the regulatory system for
controlling environmental problems in the category of concern. The
emphasis in these descriptions is on federal legislation and
regulations. The descriptions are followed by overviews of
existing conditions in the study area; for example, water quality
conditions and problems are discussed according to surface water
(including both point and nonpoint sources of pollution), ground
water, and drinking water. The next section of each chapter
discusses future trends and issues. First, the environmental
concerns in that category are linked to the driving forces
identified in Chapters 1 through 10. For example, future air
quality in the southern region is influenced by rapid metropolitan
growth, expanded use of coal resources, and growth of chemical,
pulp and paper, and construction materials industries. Next,
categories of key environmental problems and policy issues are
discussed. Each chapter then concludes with a summary organized
around an environmental problem characterization matrix which
systematically links key environmental problems to driving forces
and policy issues.
XXVlll
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CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION TO THE STUDY
1.1 THE SUNBELT
The southern regions of the U.S.—commonly referred to as the
Sunbelt—have been undergoing rapid change during the past two
decades. This area is shown in Figure 1-1.! Among the most sig-
nificant changes are: large population increases, diverse indus-
trial expansion, agricultural growth, and alterations in land-use
patterns. Many of these changes are expected to continue and sev-
eral will accelerate over the next two or three decades. The pur-
poses of this Environmental Status Report are:
• To characterize the nature of growth and change in the
Sunbelt, including the reasons why the region has been
changing;
• To identify the most significant driving forces of future
changes; and
• To describe both the variety of benefits associated with
growth and the environmental and natural resource manage-
ment problems which could accompany growth.
This report is not intended to provide analyses of policy re-
sponses for dealing with growth-related problems; rather it is
intended to provide a broad overview of the Sunbelt which can
serve as the foundation for future, more policy-oriented studies.2
The remainder of this chapter provides an overview of the pur-
poses of this report and the overall "Sunbelt" assessment. The
1Throughout this report, the terms "Sunbelt" and "southern
region" will be used to refer to our study area, which consists of
Federal Regions 4 and 6. While there is no uniform definition of
the Sunbelt, this study area is very close to the most frequently
used classifications (see Browning and Gesler, 1979). Other states
often included are Arizona and California, while Kentucky is often
excluded.
^Future reports intended from this project are described in
section 1.3 below.
1-1
-------
D REGION IV
REGION VI
Figure 1-1: The Sunbelt Study Area
next section (1.2) discusses the objectives of regional analysis
and briefly characterizes the driving forces which shape the
Sunbelt. Section 1.3 discusses the purposes and scope of this
report and describes future activities. A final section (1.4)
describes the organization of this report.
1.2 REASONS FOR STUDYING THE SUNBELT
1.2.1 Objectives of Regional Assessments
Growth patterns, environmental conditions, and policies to deal
with growth-related problems differ substantially across regions
of the country. This perspective is often lost in environmental
assessments directed towards a particular industry, such as elec-
tric utilities, or a specific environmental problem, such as haz-
ardous waste disposal. Regional assessments are not intended to
replace these specific approaches; their purpose is to supplement
them by taking a broad picture of a particular region. Such a
broad perspective provides a context for understanding
1-2
-------
relationships among specific issues in the region; it also can help
in making comparisons among regions and developing knowledge bases
which may be transferrable to other regions.
Specific objectives of regional assessments are:
• To help establish priorities for environmental protection
by addressing the relative magnitude of issues across
environmental media, across industries, and across
geographical areas. Of the variety of potential issues
in a region, which ones deserve priority attention?
• To identify cumulative impacts resulting from multiple
developments; for example, how will multiple industrial
sitings affect water resources in an area?
• To identify cross-media impacts; for example, how will
policies designed to protect air quality in a region
affect water and/or land resources?
• To assess policy options for balancing economic growth
and environmental goals. What are the options, which
are most appropriate, and who should have responsibility
for implementing them?
• To prioritize information and research needs. What
key issues or potential solutions require the most
immediate research attention?
1.2.2 Importance of the Sunbelt as a Region
Several factors contribute to the significance of the Sunbelt.
These include population increases; industrial growth including
the chemical, textile, and pulp and paper industries; increased
energy production and consumption; and changes in agriculture and
forestry. A few of the most significant of these factors are sum-
marized below.1
Industrial growth has been a key driving force throughout much
of the Sunbelt. Figure 1-2 shows one indicator of industrial
growth—manufacturing employment by region as a percentage of the
U.S. total (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980). In 1960, only
about 17 percent of those employed in manufacturing worked in the
Sunbelt. Since that time, the Sunbelt has had by far the fastest
rate of growth. By 2010, this region is projected to account for
32 percent of the total U.S. manufacturing employment—more than
any other region.
^These and other key driving forces are elaborated in volumes I
and II of this report. See section 1.4 below.
1-3
-------
40H
SOUTH
NORTHCENTRAL
NORTHEAST
WEST
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Figure 1-2: Manufacturing Employment
Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, BEA, 1980,
(see Chapter 3).
40«
SOUTH
^~ NORTHEAST
•s'~t NORTHCENTRAL
„ WEST
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Figure 1-3: Population Growth
Source: U.S., Department of Commerce, BEA, 1980,
(see Chapter 3).
1-4
-------
Population is a second key driving force, as suggested in
Figure 1-3. Since 1960, the South and West have been the fastest
growing regions in the nation. Before the end of this decade, the
South is projected to be the most populous region of the U.S. and
by 2010, over 30 percent of the U.S. population is projected to
live in these 13 states. In absolute terms, this means growth
from 45 million in 1960 to over 85 million by 2010.
Adequate energy supplies are essential to growth of population
and industry. Figure 1-4 shows projected regional energy consump-
tion as a proportion of total U.S. energy consumption. From 1960
to 1975, energy consumption in the South grew at a faster rate than
in other regions. This was largely due to rapid growth in the
transportation and energy-intensive industrial sectors. The fore-
cast of energy consumption through the year 2000 reflects the com-
bined influence of several factors: population and industrial
growth, conservation, and fuel switching from oil to coal and nu-
clear power. The combination of these effects is projected to
result in the South consuming over one-third of total U.S. energy
through the year 1995 (U.S., DOE, 1980).
In addition to population, industrial, and energy growth, land
use changes will be important to the future of the Sunbelt. Pro-
jected land use changes include increased agricultural activity,
increased silviculture, continued development along the coastal
zone, and urban expansion. One of the key changes will be increas-
ed agricultural activity. Current and future world demand for ag-
ricultural products, especially for grain and oil seeds for animal
feed, is expected to contribute to an estimated 59 percent growth
in the U.S. agricultural earnings during the period 1978-2000.
Figure 1-5 shows the percent growth in agricultural earnings
for each state for the period 1978-2000. All states in the study
area are expected to increase their annual income from agriculture.
In Region 4, Kentucky, Florida, and Georgia are projected to grow
faster than the U.S; this is the case for all states of Region 6
with the exception of Arkansas. Much of this projected growth in
agricultural earnings is based on the expectation that additional
land will be devoted to crop production. The National Agricultural
Lands Study (Hidlebaugh, 1980) reveals that over half of the 115
million acres of prime farmland potentially convertible to cropland
in the U.S. is located in the Sunbelt. Most of this land is cur-
rently used as pasture, range, or forest.
These and related growth patterns will have a variety of bene-
fits for the region and the nation. Regionally, per capita income
is projected to increase and states which have lagged behind na-
tional averages for decades can expect rates of growth faster than
the national average (see Chapter 3). Because of new jobs created
by industrial growth, relatively low unemployment can be expected
throughout the region. For example, in Oklahoma, average unemploy-
ment has been 5 percent or less during the past five years. Many
1-5
-------
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-------
communities will be able to provide improved public services as
population and tax bases increase, and social and cultural activi-
ties will increase. All of these advantages help to create a
positive outlook toward the future throughout most of the Sunbelt
(see Chapter 5).
In addition, southern growth will provide national benefits.
Several southern industries, such as chemicals and textiles, al-
ready are critical to the national economy and are expected to con-
tinue to grow in the future (see chapters 7 and 8). Such indus-
trial growth stimulates subsidiary industries nationwide and helps
to moderate price increases to consumers. U.S. balance of payments
will be improved by increased export of agricultural commodities
and, as domestic energy development grows, by decreased dependence
on imported oil.
In addition to these benefits, the magnitude and rapid pace of
growth in the Sunbelt will create several environmental and natural
resource management concerns. For example:
• Conflicts over water availability and quality will
increase throughout the 13 states. For example,
energy development is rapidly increasing in an area
of Texas already experiencing serious water problems;
• The South has an estimated 200,000 generators of
hazardous wastes: immediate and latent problems
associated with worker safety, transportation, and
disposal will be aggravated;
• Approximately 50 percent of the total U.S. fish catch
is landed in the study area; yet large fishing areas
are being restricted by industrial and biological
pollution;
• Energy facility siting issues could become more severe
because of multiple developments, competition for
resources with other industries, and difficulties
associated with air quality regulations; and
• Concerns over appropriate land uses could increase,
including problems created by expanded pesticide and
herbicide use as range and forest lands are converted
to croplands.
These and other impacts can create important local issues and
could restrict growth in some areas. Thus, the most significant
growth management issues need to be identified and options for
balancing economic growth and environmental protection need to be
addressed.
1-7
-------
1.3 THE SOUTHERN REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT (SREA)
This Environmental Status Report is the first report of the
SREA. The SREA is intended to be a three year project to assess
the implications of growth in the South. As suggested in Table
1-1, the SREA is divided into two phases. Phase I essentially has
been the design stage of the study, intended to integrate current
information about growth in the South and to identify areas for
further research in Phase II. Phase II is intended to provide de-
tailed research on key growth related issues, including identifica-
tion of high priority issues, evaluation of policy options, and
identification of research needs. Phase II started September 1,
1981 and is intended to continue for two years. Elaboration of the
activities of each phase is provided below.
The audiences for the SREA are primarily the SPA and state and
local governments in the study area. For EPA, the SREA is intended
to improve R&D planning and to inform program offices. For states,
the study is intended to: (1) help provide an "early warning
system" so that states can better anticipate future problems; and
(2) provide technical assistance, for example, by identifying
options for addressing key problems such as the siting of hazar-
dous facilities or protecting ground water systems. In addition,
the SREA is intended to inform other federal agencies and other
stakeholders in the region, including business and industry.
1.3.1 Phase I
The first phase of the SREA has been largely devoted to inte-
grating existing information in order to characterize the southern
region. This includes identification of the causes of growth and
change, characterization of key "driving forces" which create the
benefits and concerns about growth, and characterization of the
current status of environmental conditions related to air, water,
and land resources. The primary product of this activity is this
Environmental Status Report.
The Environmental Status Report serves two purposes. First,
it is intended to be a broad reference document about southern
growth. Although it does contain specific information such as
current "hotspots," important problems, and regulatory deficien-
cies, its more general goal is the synthesis and integration of ex-
isting information to provide a broad overview of the region. Such
an overview provides a picture of the current status of the 13
states and suggests how the region is likely to develop in the
future. Thus, by itself, this report is not intended to evaluate
or suggest policies for managing growth or improving regulatory
policy.
The second purpose of the Environmental Status Report is to
begin to establish a research agenda for Phase II of the SREA.
1-8
-------
TABLE 1-1: THE SOUTHERN REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT
Phase
Time
Phase I
October, 1980-
August, 1981
Purposes
Identify current trends and
future patterns in the
South
Integrate existing informa-
tion on environmentAL
problems and growth man-
agement issues
Phase II
September, 1981-
August, 1983
Identify high priority
problems related to
southern growth
Identify and evaluate policy
options for the most
serious problems
Identify data and research
needs for responding to
future environmental
concerns
That is, given a general understanding of growth in the region,
the next step is to select particular geographic areas, environ-
mental concerns, or driving forces which reflect high priority
concern in the region. Each chapter of volumes II and III of this
study attempts to identify the most significant concerns which
should receive further attention.
To produce the Environmental Status Report, we have relied
primarily on existing research products and data bases. These
include EPA research products, growth profiles from each of the
state governments, and the most recent growth projections from the
U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis. These
information sources have been supplemented by our interaction with
several regional and local groups—including regional EPA offices,
EPA labs and research centers, the Tennessee Valley Authority, the
Southern Growth Policies Board, and state agencies such as the
Texas Energy and Natural Resources Advisory Council.
1-9
-------
1.3.2 Phase II
Phase II is intended to provide policy-relevant information to
the audiences of the study. Given the complexity of the study, no
single model or technique is appropriate for meeting the goals of
the study. Rather, several approaches and methodologies will be
used at the following levels of analysis:
• Broad overviews to characterize region-wide trends and
policy issues; we will continue to expand and update the
information presented in this report;
• Region-wide studies which focus on critical driving
forces and/or environmental concerns that cut across
several parts of the study area; and
• Site-specific studies which provide detailed and
integrated analysis of driving forces, environmental
problems, and social/institutional structures within a
localized geographical area.
Several criteria will be used to select key region-wide topics
for study. These include: (1) is the topic widespread or per-
vasive throughout the study area? (2) how economically important is
the topic? (3) are current policies and institutions inadequate to
deal with future issues? and (4) are potential problems likely to
require multi-state, regional, or federal responses rather than
state or local responses? Potential topics which satisfy these
criteria are:
• Availability and quality of water supplies;
• Accommodating growth of the chemical industry; and
• Siting of hazardous facilities.
Several criteria will be used to select site-specific studies
in which the scope is narrowed to a relatively small geographic
area. These include: (1) the set of sites should be represen-
tative of key driving forces, environmental problems, and diverse
geographical regions of the study area; (2) they should involve
high-priority environmental/economic growth concerns—either imme-
diate "hot spots" or areas facing pressures which could create
important issues in the future; and (3) the sites should reflect
local and regional concerns—they will be selected in consultation
with EPA regional offices and state and local officials. As one
example, work has begun on studying growth of the Mobile Bay area,
which is representative of coastal areas which are important for
fishing, tourism, and recreation and are also experiencing indus-
trialization.
1-10
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1.4 ORGANIZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL STATUS REPORT
As discussed in the beginning of this chapter, the purpose of
the Environmental Status Report is to link driving forces which
create environmental change with the most significant current and
future environmental concerns in the study area. The fifteen chap-
ters of the Status Report are divided into three volumes. As sug-
gested in Figure 1-6, Volume I discusses general trends contribu-
ting to the Sunbelt phenomenon. Chapter 1 introduces the study
and describes general patterns pf growth and change in the study
area; Chapter 2 identifies the range of factors important to
growth; Chapter 3 discusses economic and population changes;
Chapter 4 describes industrial trends; and Chapter 5 characterizes
social values and attitudes.
Volume II provides more detailed discussion of trends in eco-
nomic development. Chapter 6 describes energy production and con-
sumption, including trends in oil and gas development, coal, syn-
thetic fuels, biomass, nuclear, and geothermal; chapters 7 and 8
discuss the chemical and textile industries; Chapter 9 charac-
terizes agricultural and forestry production; and Chapter 10 dis-
cusses the pulp and paper industry.
Volume III is concerned with five environmental categories in
the study area: air quality (Chapter 11); land and coastal zone
use (Chapter 12); water availability (Chapter 13); water quality
(Chapter 14); and hazardous wastes (Chapter 15). Each chapter
links the problem category to one or more of the driving forces
identified in Volume* II and discusses current conditions and
possible future trends.
1-11
-------
i
M
to
I. GENERAI
TRENDS
-CAUSES OF GROWTH
-ECONOMIC AND
POPULATION CHANGES
-INDUSTRIAL GROWTH
-SOCIAL VALUES
AND ATTITUDES
II. KEY
DRIVING FORCES
-ENERGY
-CHEMICALS
-TEXTILES
-AGRICULTURE
-FORESTRY
-PULP AND PAPER
III. ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGES
-AIR QUALITY
-LAND USE
AND ECOSYSTEMS
-WATER AVAILABILITY
-WATER QUALITY
-HAZARDOUS WASTES
Figure 1-6: Organization of the Environmental Status Report
-------
REFERENCES
Browning, Clyde, and Wil Gesler. 1979. "The Sun Belt-Snow Belt:
A Case of Sloppy Regionalizing." Professional Geographer 31
(No. l):66-74.
Galliker, J. P. 1979. Federal Energy Data Statistical Summary
Update. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of Energy.
Hidlebaugh, Allen. 1980. Agricultural Lands Data Sheet, Interim
Report No. 2, National Agricultural Lands Study. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., Department of Agriculture and Council on
Environmental Quality.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
1980. Regional Economic Projections. Washington, D.C.: BEA.
U.S., Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administra-
tion (EIA). 1980. "Series B Mid-Range, Mid-World Oil Price
Projections." Unpublished data.
1-13
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CHAPTER 2
GROWTH AND CHANGE IN THE SUNBELT
HIGHLIGHTS
1. The growth rate of total employment never exceeded 16 percent
prior to 1960 but accelerated sharply after that. Total em-
ployment grew 23 percent from 1960 to 1969 and 43 percent
from 1970 to 1975.
2. This sudden acceleration largely results from underlying
trends evident in the South since at least 1920:
• Farm employment in the South declined precipitously
after 1920 and did not begin to level out until after
1960.
• Manufacturing employment has experienced a steady rise
of 20 to 40 percent per decade since 1920, with the
exception of the Great Depression years.
3. Much of the industrial growth of the South can be attributed
to lower wages and a labor management environment favorable
to industry:
• In 1969 median wage income in the South typically
ranged between 80 and 90 percent of U.S. values for
comparable occupations. Specific comparisons are
often even greater. For example, in 1973 average
employee compensation per hour in the South in the
cotton textile industry was 63 percent of that in
the Northeast.
• Labor union membership as a percentage of total
employment in all Sunbelt states is below the U.S.
value of 24 percent.
4. The South has been a region of abundant, low-cost energy.
In 1974, Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma produced 68 percent
of the crude oil and 76 percent of the natural gas. Average
prices to industrial users for electricity, natural gas, and
residual fuel oil are well below national averages in Region
6. Compared to the industrial Northeast, prices in both
regions 4 and 6 for all fuels but coal are very favorable.
2-i
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5. The South also possesses other important resources that have
facilitated industrial growth:
• Rich agricultural regions that produce large
quantities of produce requiring processing;
• Extensive forest resources that have attracted a
significant portion of the nations pulp and paper
industry;
• Petroleum resources that serve as feedstocks for
petroleum refining and the chemical industry; and
• Relatively abundant and unpolluted water and air
resources.
6. Since World War II, improvements in transportation facili-
ties, particularly highways, have increased the accessibility
of the South. Studies of firms locating in the South today
indicate the availability of transportation to be a major
criterion in their choice.
7. For a number of decades federal spending in the South has
exceeded federal taxes collected in the South, creating an
important stimulant to the southern economy. Although the
ratio of spending to taxes in the South has been declining
recently, in 1979 these inbalances created a net inflow of
16 billion dollars to the South.
8. Growth in the South is becoming increasingly self-sustaining
because of growth in the size of the regional market and be-
cause industrial growth often attracts additional growth in
the same or related industries. With the projected decline
of regional difference in other variables important to growth,
the size of the market and the existence of additional econo-
mies to industrial concentration are likely to become increas-
ingly important determinants of southern growth.
9. In spite of the general perception that low business taxes
have contributed to the favorable business climate of the
South, most research indicates low business taxes and tax
incentives have not played a significant role in industrial
location in the nation as a whole or in the South, although
they may have had a small effect on the growth of individual
states or localities within the Sunbelt. Other variables,
such as labor and transportation costs, vary much more than
taxes among regions and so play a much more significant role.
2-ii
-------
10. A region may also grow by attracting people—in fact, the
amenities of a region may be more important to the growth of
a region than its attractiveness to industry. The most endur-
ing amenities of the South include the mild winters and the
landscapes and recreational opportunities provided by the
oceans, beaches, mountains, streams, and natural and man-made
lakes.
2-iii
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CHAPTER 2
GROWTH AND CHANGE IN THE SUNBELT
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Regional growth often creates the potential for environmen-
tal change. Population growth increases the need for land and
a pure water supply and increases the volume of generated waste
materials such as automobile exhaust, sewage, and solid waste.
Economic growth, particularly industrial growth, typically in-
creases the input of raw materials and the output of waste mater-
ials, many of which have environmental and human health conse-
quences. Per capita income growth typically increases the con-
sumption of goods and services, increasing the problems associ-
ated with population growth and fueling further economic growth.
Growth can also provide an environmental benefit by raising con-
cerns and revenues required to improve environmental quality.
During the first half of this century, the South was a rela-
tively rural region with a small industrial base. As Figure 2-1
shows, population and economic growth rates and per capita in-
comes were below United States averages. During the past decade,
the centers of economic, population, and per capita income growth
in the United States have shifted from the North to the South and
West. As a result of such growth, the focus of environmental
concern has expanded to include the South. From 1970 to 1978,
the population growth rate in the South was over one and one-half
times the growth rate of the U.S. and the growth rate of employ-
ment was twice as great. Per capita incomes in the Sunbelt are
rapidly approaching those of the U.S.
Chapters 3 and 4 describe in more detail current and pro-
jected trends in southern population and economic growth. This
chapter examines the causes of population and economic growth in
the South to date. Considerable controversy surrounds almost all
interpretations of regional growth. Some assert that economic
growth is the primary determinant of migration and population
growth, while others argue that migration and population growth
are most important. A more widely held view is that migration,
population growth, and economic development are a jointly depen-
dent, circular process. Economic growth draws people and popu-
lation growth provides the markets and the labor supply for fur-
ther economic growth. Thus, this chapter is divided into two ma-
jor sections. The first examines those characteristics of the
2-1
-------
A)
2 20
a.
o
a.
5 10-
UJ
(9
<
O
South
U.S.
1920- 1930- 1940- 1950- 1960- 1970-
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1978
B)
ui
O
a.
ui
w
40-
30-
20-
10-
-10-1
South
192O-
1930
V
1940- 1950- 1960- 1970-
1950 1960 1970 1978
C)
PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME AS % OF U.S. AVERAGE
1OO-
9O-
80-
7O-
6O-
50
U.S.
South
r
1929
194O 1950 1960 1970 1979
Figure 2-1: (a) Population Growth Rate, (b) Employment Growth
Rate, and (c) Per Capita Income for the South and Nonsouth.
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1920-1970;
and U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
2-2
-------
South that encourage economic growth and the second those char-
acteristics that attract people.
2.2 CHARACTERISTICS ENCOURAGING ECONOMIC GROWTH
2.2.1 The Importance of Manufacturing
As shown in Figure 2-1, total employment in the South grew
relatively slowly between 1920 and 1960, with employment growth
rates never exceeding 16 percent per decade. However, beginning
around 1960 the employment growth rate accelerated. The growth
rate increased to 23 percent during the 1960's and to 43 percent
from 1970 to 1975. To a large extent, this sudden acceleration
is a result of underlying trends that have been building since
at least 1920.
These trends become evident when changes in the structure of
the southern economy are examined. Basic industries, or those
sectors that serve national markets, form the economic foundation
of a region. They are typically defined to include a high pro-
portion of agriculture, mining, and manufacturing plus portions
of other major sectors. Remaining sectors, termed service or
nonbasic, serve primarily regional markets and depend for their
growth on growth in the region's basic sector. Generally they
are locationally tied to the industries and population they
serve. These sectors typically include most government, ser-
vices, finance, insurance and real estate, retail and wholesale
trade, transportation, utilities, and construction.-'- The size of
the nonbasic sector, relative to the basic sector, is dependent
on the proportion of revenues producers spend on services and on
the wages paid to employees in basic industries. Where service
inputs to basic industries and employee incomes are high, spend-
ing for services is high and the nonbasic sector increases its
importance in the total economy. Trends in total employment are
thus related to the success of a region in attracting basic in-
dustries and the wages paid by the basic sector.
continuing improvements in communication, transporta-
tion, and information processing technology, the traditional di-
vision between basic and nonbasic service industries is blurring.
Some service industries are increasingly able to serve customers
at considerable distances. As this happens, these industries
move from the nonbasic to the basic sector.
2-3
-------
In 1920, agricultural employment dominated both basic and
total employment in the South,1 representing 69 percent of basic
employment and 47 percent of nonbasic employment (Table 2-1).
Only 27 percent of basic and 19 percent of nonbasic employment
was in manufacturing. For the rest of the country in 1920, the
roles of agricultural and manufacturing employment were almost
exactly reversed; manufacturing had increased to account for 64
percent of basic employment compared to only 31 percent for
agriculture.
The agricultural sector thus remained preeminent in the econ-
omy of the South longer than in the rest of the country. Numerous
reasons have been identified for the relatively underdeveloped
status of the South, including:
• The cumulative headstart in the North;
• Inadequate transportation and discriminatory railroad
rates;
• A poorly developed urban network;
• The dominance of cotton and the sharecropper system;
• A colonial pattern of absentee ownership of resources;
• The destruction and political aftermath of the civil war;
• A poorly educated labor force;
• An unequal distribution of income; and
• Overt racial discrimination.
^Because of the availability of data, statistics presented
in this chapter for the South are based on the regions as defined
by the Census Bureau, unless otherwise indicated. The South
Atlantic Region includes Maryland, Delaware, District of Colum-
bia, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina,
Georgia, and Florida. The East Southcentral Region includes Ken-
tucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. The West Southcen-
tral Region includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas.
The South by this definition differs from the study area defined
for this report through the inclusion of Maryland, Delaware, Vir-
ginia, West Virginia, and Washington, D.C., and the exclusion of
New Mexico. This definition tends to underestimate differences
between the study area and the rest of the nation.
2-4
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TABLE 2-1:
STRUCTURE OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE SOUTH AND NONSOUTH,
1920
Sector
Percent of Basic
Employment
Southa Nonsouth
Percent of Total
Employment
South
Nonsouth
Agriculture
Mining
Manufacturing
Total
69
4
27
100
31
5
64
100
47
3
19
69
18
3
36
57
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1920.
aSee footnote 1 on page 2-4.
Despite speculation over the reasons for the initial develop-
mental lag, three trends have been evident since 1920^ which to-
gether largely explain the slow economic growth from 1920 to 1960
followed by rapid economic growth from 1960-1978 (Figure 2-2).
In in the 1920's, agricultural employment in the South declined
precipitously, influenced by the fall of cotton prices, the de-
cline of the sharecropping system and the technological and eco-
nomic changes leading to farm consolidation throughout the na-
tion. Until 1960, this decline in agricultural employment was
not entirely offset by increases in manufacturing employment.
Thus, total basic employment actually fell during every decade
between 1930 and 1960. The decline in basic employment ensured
that total employment could only rise slowly over the period,
dependent on rising per capita incomes to generate sufficient
growth in the service sector. As a result of this slow employ-
ment growth, most of the South experienced substantial outmigra-
tion over this period.
Although increases were not sufficient to offset decreases
in agricultural employment, manufacturing employment in the South
has experienced a steady rise of 20 to 40 percent per decade
throughout the 1920 to 1970 period, with the exception of the
depression years when manufacturing employment declined. Since
1970, however, the growth rate has declined slightly. Thus, the
increase in manufacturing capacity in the South is a trend of
long duration, but not until 1960 was the increase enough to
•^-Detailed industry employment data were first collected by
the census in 1920.
2-5
-------
10
9
8
M
7-
i 6
5
Sf 5
u
Q.
s
2-
1 -
0
Total
exogenous
employment
Manufacturing
Agriculture
Mining
19201930194°19501960197i978
Figure 2-2: Employment in Basic Industries in the South,
1920-1980
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1920-1970;
and U.S., Dept. of Commerce BEA, 1980.
offset agricultural employment decline and to produce an increase
in basic employment. Total employment growth began to accelerate
at the same time that basic employment began to increase.
The third important trend is the rise in the percentage of
total employment, that is, in the nonbasic, or service, sector.
This percentage rose gradually from 32 percent in 1920 to 77 per-
cent in 1978. The increase has been influenced by rising per
capita incomes in the basic sector in the South attributable, at
least in part, to:
• Increased productivity throughout the basic sector;
2-6
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• A rising ratio of manufacturing employment to agri-
cultural employment in the basic sector; and
• A rising ratio of high wage to low wage industries
within the manufacturing sector.
The ability of the South to attract manufacturing has been
central to its economic growth over the past 60 years. However,
the recent acceleration of economic growth is not a result of
recent change in the growth rate of manufacturing. The problem
of evaluating the causes of recent economic growth in the South
and the likelihood of its continuing, therefore, becomes a problem
of determining why the South has been attracting manufacturing
throughout this century and the probability that these reasons
will continue to exist. The rest of this section discusses the
competitive advantages of the South in attracting manufacturing,
including: (1) resource cost and availability; (2) the develop-
ment of agglomeration economies, transportation, and markets; and
(3) governmental policies. Although the relative importance of
these various advantages is ambiguous, these factors are gener-
ally considered to contribute to the region's attractiveness.
2.2.2 Resource Cost and Availability
The availability and cost of resources are important con-
siderations in the location of most manufacturing activities.
The South possesses advantages in the provision of certain im-
portant resources, including labor, energy, raw materials, and
environmental resources.
A. Labor Cost and Availability
Lower labor costs are widely considered to be one of the
most, if not the most, important reasons for the continued expan-
sion of manufacturing in the South, especially when labor costs
are considered as a combination of wage rates, the strength and
activity of unions, and the availability and productivity of la-
bor. The importance of this variable stems from the fact that
labor is the single most costly input into manufacturing; about
50 percent of the value added in manufacturing is spent on pay-
roll, two-thirds of which goes to production workers (Vaughan,
1979).
In the South, wages for comparable skill levels have been
significantly below United States averages. As Table 2-2 indi-
cates, median wage income in the South in 1969 typically ranged
between 80 and 90 percent of U.S. values for comparable occupa-
tions. In given industries the differences can be even greater.
In 1973, for example, average employee compensation per hour in
the South in the cotton textile industry was 63 percent of that
2-7
-------
TABLE 2-2: MEDIAN WAGE OR SALARY INCOME FOR MALES, 1969
Occupation
Professionals,
technical, and
kindred workers
Managers and
administrators ,
except farm
Sales workers
Clerical and kindred
workers
Craftsmen and kindred
workers
Operatives, except
transport
Transport equipment
operatives
Laborers, except farm
Farmers and farm
managers
Farm laborers and
foremen
Service workers, except
private household
Private household
workers
Total
United
States
$11, 752
11, 747
9,454
7,973
8,730
7,439
7,583
6,135
5,122
3,628
6,381
3,118
8,517
South
$11,053
10,427
8,533
7,406
7,536
6,148
6,074
4,721
4,049
3,096
5,224
2,247
7,365
South as percent
of U.S.
.940
.888
.902
.929
.863
.826
.800
.770
.790
.853
.819
.721
.865
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1973, Tables
227 and 296.
2-8
-------
in the Northeast (McKenzie, 1979, p. 40). The supply of labor in
the South at these wage levels, particularly unskilled labor, has
been plentiful in the past. Employment to population ratios have
been very low because of the excess supply of displaced agricul-
tural employment.
Regional differences in wage rates and labor supply have been
declining, however. In several highly skilled occupations, wage
rates in the South are as high as or even slightly higher than in
the North. But wage rates for most occupations, particularly
blue collar and unskilled occupations, are still below national
averages and are projected to remain below these values for a
number of years to come. Employment to population ratios also
have been approaching U.S. averages in many southern states,
with the result that labor is no longer in excess supply in many
areas. Greater tightness in labor markets may increase the up-
ward pressure on wages and thus decrease the attractiveness of
these areas to industry.
The extent of labor-management conflict can also significant-
ly affect overall labor costs. A number of indicators confirm
the general perception that labor-management relationships are
more favorable to industry in the South. Labor union membership
as a percentage of total employment is much lower in most south-
ern states than in the nation (Table 2-3). Membership in all
TABLE 2-3: LABOR UNION MEMBERSHIP AS A PERCENT
OF NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT, 1978
State Percent of Employment
Alabama 19
Arkansas 15
Florida 12
Georgia 14
Kentucky 23
Louisiana 16
Mississippi 13
New Mexico 12
North Carolina 7
Oklahoma 14
South Carolina 7
Tennessee 18
Texas 11
U.S. 24
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census,
1980, p. 429.
2-9
-------
southern states is below the U.S. value of 24 percent. Only Ken-
tucky (23 percent), Tennessee (18 percent), and Alabama (19 per-
cent) approach the U.S. value and two states, North Carolina and
South Carolina, have only 7 percent of their workforce unionized.
Right-to-work laws in all study area states except Kentucky,
Oklahoma, and New Mexico make it more difficult for unions to
grow; very few of the industrialized states of the Northeast,
Middle Atlantic, East Northcentral, or Pacific have such laws.
Days idled due to work stoppages in most southern states are also
well below U.S. averages (Table 2-4). The number of days idle
per nonagricultural employee in 1978 was well below the U.S.
average (0.43) for all study area states except Kentucky (1.73),
Tennessee (0.43), Alabama (0.80) and New Mexico (0.50), states
showing the influence of a high frequency of work stoppage in
the coal mining industry. No other Sunbelt state has a value
above 0.26, and idle days are particularly infrequent in the
South Atlantic states of North Carolina (0.05), South Carolina
(0.06), Georgia (0.10), and Florida (0.07). Unions are making
inroads in the South, especially through the migration of union
members and unionized industries, but clear differences between
the South and the rest of the nation remain, and are projected
to continue to remain.
TABLE 2-4: DAYS IDLED DUE TO WORK STOPPAGES PER
NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYEE, 1978
State Days Idled per Employee
Alabama 0.80
Arkansas 0.17
Florida 0.07
Georgia 0.10
Kentucky 1.73
Louisiana 0.16
Mississippi 0.25
New Mexico 0.50
North Carolina 0.05
Oklahoma 0.26
South Carolina 0.06
Tennessee 0.43
Texas 0.12
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census,
1980, pp. 412 and 431.
2-10
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Labor cost is also affected by worker skill levels and pro-
ductivity. Evidence based on the occupational mix and value
added per worker indicate that both skill levels and productivity
in the South were well below U.S. averages for the first half of
this century, but that both have been increasing more rapidly in
the South than in the U.S. (Horiba and Kirkpatrick, 1979;
Singlemann, 1981; Toal, 1976). As a result, both occupational
levels and value added per worker are now above the U.S. average
in the West Southcentral Region and only slightly below U.S.
averages in the South Atlantic and East Southcentral regions.
These indicators are not good measures of the inherent abilities
of the southern worker because they depend on the occupations
offered by industry, the mix of industrial sectors, and the
amount of other inputs, particularly capital, used in the produc-
tion process. Other evidence indicates that although educational
and skill levels of the southern labor force were low early in
the century, improved education, state and industrial training
programs, and labor force migration has significantly improved
the quality of the labor force available in the South. A number
of studies indicate that where other resources, including capital
and management, are supplied in the same quantities, southern
labor is as efficient as nonsouthern labor (Watkins, 1980).
Much of the evidence for the importance of labor costs to the
growth of manufacturing in the South has been based on the geo-
graphic pattern of production for certain industries and products
(Malecki, 1981; Rees, 1979a; Hekman, 1980; Hansen, forthcoming;
Cromley and Leinbach, 1981). A product tends to progress through
three stages during its life cycle. During the first stage, in-
novation, new products are developed. The location of such ac-
tivities tends to be concentrated in the largest industrialized
urban centers where interindustry linkages are strong, research
and educational facilities are concentrated, and information net-
works meet. The cultural amenities of such regions are important
to attracting the technical and professional skills required.
The quality of these inputs is frequently more important than
their price. The second, or growth, stage is characterized by
the introduction of mass production. As a product passes through
this stage, the input of technical, managerial, and professional
skills decreases and production labor costs become increasingly
significant. The third, or mature, stage is characterized by
little innovation and long, routine production runs. Wages and
the availability of relatively low skilled workers willing to
accept lay-offs and flexible hours becomes a primary locational
consideration. The manufacture of products in this stage tends
to gravitate toward low wage areas, both foreign and domestic.
Manufacturing establishments in this stage are frequently branch
plants of larger firms that maintain their corporate headquarters
and innovative capacity in other areas.
Much of the early growth in southern manufacturing consisted
of mature industries, where labor costs dominated other locational
2-11
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considerations. Textiles and apparel manufacture, leaders in the
industrial revolution and some of the first to reach the mature
stage, moved much of their domestic capacity to the South in the
first half of the 20th century in search of low labor costs that
could compete with foreign production. These industries are still
growing slowly in the South at a time when total production in the
nation is declining. Many observers attribute the recent growth
in the South of manufacturing capacity in other manufacturing sec-
tors, many of which are still growing and developing new products,
to the location by these industries of production capacity for
established second and third stage products in lower wage areas.
This view is supported by the high percentage of southern employ-
ment growth accounted for by branch plants. For example, Cromley
and Leinbach (1981) found that in 1980 branch plants accounted for
79 percent of total manufacturing employment in Kentucky. In the
high growth, innovative instruments, electronics, and computing
equipment industries, most corporate headquarters and research and
development facilities remain in the established centers of the
Northeast and California, while the South is prominent in the mass
production of products in these industries (Malecki, 1981; Hekman,
1980).
Other strong evidence exists for the importance of labor
costs in the growth of manufacturing in the South. Carlton
(1979) found in a national study that, after controlling for other
variables important to industrial location, labor costs were the
most significant determinant of employment growth in the plas-
tics, communication transmission equipment, and electronic com-
ponents industries. In a survey of 23 studies in which company
executives of newly established plants were asked to name impor-
tant determinants of their locational choice, 16 out of the 23
studies found that labor costs were a primary determinant
(Moriarty et al., 1980). A South Carolina study found that in
executives' remarks made "on-the-record," low wages and the ab-
scence of significant union activity were much less important than
other reasons. In remarks considered "off-the-record," however,
these reasons were at the top of the list (McKenzie, 1979, p. 45).
An executive of Fantus Corporation, a plant location consulting
firm, stated that "nine out of ten times you can hang it on labor
costs and unionization" (Watkins, 1980).
In sum, a considerable consensus exists that attributes much
of the industrial growth of the South to the ability of lower
wages and a labor-management environment favorable to industry
to attract production capacity for established products. As
southern wages approach national levels and if regional differ-
ences in labor activism diminish, the ability of the South to
attract as large a percentage of national growth in manufactur-
ing as it has in recent years may decrease.
2-12
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B. Energy Cost and Availability
The South has been a region of abundant, low-cost energy.
In 1974, Texas and Louisiana combined produced 60 percent of the
nation's crude oil and 70 percent of the natural gas (Hoch,
1980). Oklahoma produced another 8 percent of the crude, and
Oklahoma and New Mexico each produced another 6 percent of the
gas. Kentucky produced 24 percent of national coal production.
These five states were large net exporters of energy, large
enough to make the South as a whole a net exporter in spite of
net imports by the other eight states in the study area (Boercker
et al., 1977). In addition, the area possessed 35 percent of the
electrical generating capacity, 45 percent of the crude oil re-
fining capacity, and 77 percent of the natural gas processing
plants, and a good to very good pipeline distribution system
(Brunson and Bever, 1977, p. 38). As Table 2-5 indicates, the
South also possessed considerable price advantages in most fuels.
Average retail prices to industrial users for electricity, natur-
al gas, and residual fuel oil were well below national averages
in Region 6, although prices in Region 4 more closely approxi-
mated national values. Compared to the industrialized Northeast,
however, prices in both regions 4 and 6 were very favorable. For
example, prices for all fuels except coal were well below those
for Region 2 (New York and New Jersey) in both southern regions.
Energy prices and availability will continue to be favorable
relative to other regions, although southern production as a per-
centage of the U.S. is expected to decline slightly and regional
price levels will tend to converge. In 1980, the study area
TABLE 2-5:
AVERAGE RETAIL PRICE OF ENERGY
TO INDUSTRIAL USERS, 1980
Dollars Per Million Btu's
Region
Region 4
Region 6
Region 2a
U.S.
Electricity
8.15
7.23
10.53
8.34
Natural
Gas
1.62
1.18
2.77
1.56
Distillate
3.62
3.65
3.77
3.60
Residual
Fuel Oil
2.44
2.24
2.50
2.49
Coal
1.39
1.74
1.48
1.34
Source: U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980.
aNew York and New Jersey.
2-13
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possessed proved reserves equal to 43 percent of the nation's
crude oil, 64 percent of the natural gas, 78 percent of the gas
liquids, and 10 percent of coal expressed in Btu's (see Chapter
6). In addition, 52 percent of new electrical generating capacity
to be built in the nation by 1990 is projected to be constructed
in the South (U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980). The general pattern of rela-
tive prices evident in Table 2-5 is projected to continue, al-
though regional differentials will tend to diminish with electri-
city prices in Region 6 and distillate prices in Region 4 experi-
encing particular gains (U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980).
Energy production can contribute to regional economic growth
in two ways. Extraction activities themselves are a basic indus-
try. Their impact on total regional economic activity depends on
the size of the payroll, the extent to which other inputs such as
equipment are purchased inside the region, and the extent to which
the very large profits of recent years stay within the region. In
general, the impact of these industries in the South is thought to
be less substantial than the total value of output would indicate
(Hoch, 1980; Pagoulatos and Anschel, 1981). Although wages in
fossil fuel extraction have been high in recent years, payroll is
a relatively small proportion of value added and, except in a few
areas, total employment has been small. Other inputs are often
imported and a large percentage of the profits accrue outside the
region. The economic impact should not be minimized, however.
Energy extraction activities have contributed very significantly
to the economic base of such areas as eastern Kentucky; Houston
and Dallas, Texas; New Orleans, Louisiana; and Tulsa, Oklahoma.
The ability of extractive activities to sustain long-run growth is
limited, however. Even though recent and projected future in-
creases in extractive activities will continue to support economic
growth, even boom conditions in certain areas of the South, most
of these reserves have finite lifetimes. Depletion of fossil fuel
reserves may create serious dislocations in the economies of local-
ized areas in the near future (Pagoulatos and Anschel, 1981).
Energy extraction can also contribute to regional economic
growth if its high availability and low price attracts manufac-
turing. In some industries, reliability of supply can be a more
important consideration than price. There is considerable disa-
greement over the role abundant supplies and low prices in the
South have had on manufacturing location. Because energy prices
in general were low prior to the early 1970's, Miernyk (1977) be-
lieves southern energy advantages in both price and reliability of
supply may have been important to only a few very energy-intensive
industries not strongly tied to other localized inputs or markets,
such as iron and steel production, aluminum and zinc refining,
glass and chemical manufacture, and petroleum refining. Some evi-
dence for the importance of energy costs in these industries is
provided in Table 2-6. Growth rates for chemicals, primary metals,
and stone, clay, and glass were substantially above national
growth rates in the Sunbelt as a whole and especially in Region 6
2-14
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TABLE 2-6: RATES OF GROWTH OF ENERGY-INTENSIVE INDUSTRIF.S3
(percent change)
Region
Chemicals
(28)
Industry
(SIC Code)
Primary
Metals
(33)
Stone, Clay,
and Glass
(32)
1967-72 1972-77 1967-72 1972-77 1967-72
1972-77
Region 4
Region 6
Total
U.S.
40
63
50
38
83
137
108
74
45
29
38
21
64
85
72
60
85
63
77
51
32
56
41
49
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Industry and Trade Admin.,
1980; U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1976-78, 1979-80.
aMeasured in terms of value-added, current dollars.
where most fossil fuel production occurs. Miernyk, for example,
believes energy costs per dollar of value added were low enough in
other industries that other locational variables were more impor-
tant.
In contrast, both Hoch (1980) and Carlton (1979) believe
energy prices, availability, and reliability of supply are more
important in a wider range of industries than energy costs per
dollar of value added indicate. Carlton found that energy prices
and availability were a significant determinant in the location of
the fabricated plastics and electronic components industries,
where the ratios of energy expenditure to value added were very
near the all industry average, 0.022 and 0.016, respectively. A
clear relationship between the energy rich states and rapid growth
in manufacturing and incomes has been noted by many observers
(e.g., Hoch, 1980).
Many analysts agree differentials in energy prices and avail-
ability will become more important as energy prices increase in
the future relative to other input prices (Rostow, 1977; Hoch,
1980; and Miernyk, 1977). Regional differences in prices, how-
ever, are projected to decline. The net affect of these opposing
trends is difficult to project. Most probably, energy prices
will continue to favor the location of energy intensive indus-
tries in the South for a number of years to come (Hoch, 1980);
2-15
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but if prices converge and southern fossil fuels approach deple-
tion, the advantage may disappear.
C. Other Raw Materials
The South possesses a number of raw material resources that
have attracted manufacturing. Manufacturing sectors with strong
raw material locational orientations include food processing,
lumber products, pulp and paper, petroleum refining, certain
chemicals, stone/clay/glass manufacture, and primary metals
(Miernyk, 1977). Certain of these, including chemicals, petro-
leum refining, and primary metals, have more locational flexibil-
ity than others and also are sensitive to energy prices.
The South possesses resources essential to most of these
industries. It is a rich agricultural region, with favorable
soils, slopes, and climate. It produces a moderate to high per-
centage of total U.S. production of meat, sugarcane, soybeans,
peanuts, and certain specialty crops such as fruits, vegetables,
and tobacco—all of which result in significant food processing.
The region has extensive forest resources; in 1977 they included
49 percent of the privately owned commercial timberland,! 39 per-
cent of the nation's total commercial timberland, 28 percent of
the growing stock by volume, and 23 percent of the sawtimber vol-
ume (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980, p. 732). The
lower percentages of growing stock and sawtimber relative to tim-
berland reflect, at least in part, the specialization of the South
in short rotation forest management for pulp rather than less
productive or more poorly stocked forests. The considerable pe-
troleum reserves of the region for petroleum refining and petro-
chemical production were discussed in the previous section. In
1978, New Mexico produced 10 percent of the nation's primary cop-
per; Tennessee produced 29 percent of the zinc; and the Gulf
states had excellent access to the Caribbean bauxite deposits as
well as smaller deposits in Arkansas and Alabama (U.S., Dept. of
Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980).
Southern manufacturing has traditionally had a greater pro-
portion of raw material oriented industries than has the United
States as a whole. This reflects both the resource endowment of
the region and the fact that in the past the South was in a poor
competitive position to attract many industries not tied to immo-
bile resources. As Table 2-7 indicates, in 1978 the South
^Commercial timberland is forest land, in public or private
ownership, capable of producing in excess of 20 cubic feet per
acre per year of industrial wood in natural stands and not with-
drawn by statute of regulation. Currently inaccessible or inop-
erable lands are excluded. See Chapter 9 for a more complete
discussion.
2-16
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TABLE 2-7:
SUNBELT SHARE AND GROWTH OF RAW MATERIAL
ORIENTED INDUSTRIES, 1978
Major Raw
Material
Oriented Sectors
Food Processing
Pulp and Paper
Chemicals
Petroleum Refining
Lumber Products
Stone, Clay, and
Glass
Primary Metals
Total
All Manufacturing
Labor Earnings
in Southa
(millions of 1972
dollars )
3,944
2,249
4,368
1,319
2,216
1,849
2,470
18,415
47,823
Percent
of U.S.
Earnings
23
26
29
36
30
23
13
23
21
Percent
Change
1969-78
South
3
46
47
54
48
53
59
—
39
U.S.
12
24
23
41
52
34
23
—
18
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980
aRegions 4 and 6.
produced a slightly larger share of U.S. earnings in the combined
major raw material oriented sectors than it did in total manufac-
turing (23 vs 21 percent). In specific raw material sectors, how-
ever, it produced even larger shares—26 percent for pulp and
paper, 29 percent for chemicals, 36 percent for petroleum refin-
ing, and 30 percent for lumber products. All the southern raw
material oriented sectors except food processing have been growing
more rapidly in the recent past than manufacturing as a whole, and
all but food processing and lumber products have been growing more
rapidly in the South than in the nation as a whole, typically
about twice as fast (Table 2-7). These growth rates indicate that
the raw material resources of the South will likely continue to
contribute to significant manufacturing growth in the South.
Domestic petroleum and metal resources which the chemicals, petrol-
eum refining, and primary metals industries use are subject to
depletion; but the current concentrations of these industries in
areas with access to low cost water transportation and to major
pipelines may allow these industries to maintain growth using
foreign raw materials. The success of the aluminum refining in-
dustry along the Gulf Coast based on Caribbean bauxite is a case
in point.
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D. Environmental Resources
The South also possesses important environmental resources.
While these resources cannot be considered to have been a major
determinant of manufacturing growth in the South, they have facili-
tated growth, particularly in recent years as these resources have
become more scarce in other industrial regions and as concern over
environmental problems has increased.
Water resources are usually considered abundant throughout most
of the eastern two-thirds of the Sunbelt. Both ground water and
surface water resources are severely limited throughout much of New
Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma. Rainfall in these states averages 10
to 20 inches per year and is subject to high seasonal variability.
In contrast, water is physically available and subject to rela-
tively uniform annual flows throughout much of the Southeast. For
this reason, many industries have been, and will continue to be,
attracted to the South--including energy development, chemical
manufacturing, pulp and paper, and primary metals production. How-
ever, the physical abundance of water will be affected by in-
creasing water quality concerns in some areas, including much of
the Gulf Coast, several areas along the Atlantic Coast, and large
portions of Kentucky, Georgia, and Mississippi. The relationship
between water quality and water availability will be increasingly
important to the growth of the Sunbelt region (see chapters 13 and
14).
Air quality is generally good throughout the Sunbelt, espe-
cially in comparison with problems experienced in the more heavily
industrialized regions of the United States. Growth and develop-
ment has been facilitated in both the Southeast and Southwest by
the relatively few Class I areas, requiring special protection
under the Prevention of Significant Deterioration regulations, and
the progress made in cleaning up nonattainment areas. In addition,
new regulatory approaches such as the bubble concept and emissions
offset programs have provided states such as Oklahoma, Texas, and
Kentucky with more flexibility in attracting and locating
industries.
However, the cumulative effects of rapid population growth and
increasing urbanization, industrialization, and energy development
in some areas of the Sunbelt are affecting local and regional ef-
forts to maintain or improve air quality. Increasing emissions
from mobile sources are a continuing problem in high growth non-
attainment areas such as southern Florida, the Carolinas1 Piedmont,
the area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina, Atlanta, Georgia,
and the greater Houston area in Texas, while rapid industrial
growth and energy development raises air quality concerns for
areas such as the Gulf coast of Texas, parts of New Mexico, and
the Appalachian areas of Kentucky and Tennessee. Overall, how-
ever, air quality issues in the Sunbelt are likely to focus on
modification of siting and control strategies rather than on
2-18
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actual restrictions on growth and development (see Chapter 11).
Thus, relatively high quality and abundant water and air re-
sources have facilitated industrial growth in the South and are
likely to continue to do so in the future.
2.2.3 Development of Regional Markets
Manufacturing location has become increasingly market ori-
ented during the 20th century because of transportation improve-
ments; scale economies and localized raw material depletion that
limit the importance of individual raw material sites; the trend
toward more highly processed products; and the increasing com-
plexity of interindustry linkages. Sustained economic growth of
a region therefore often depends on the development of large in-
ternal markets (Pluta, 1980; Moriarty et al., 1980). As the
South's regional population and economy become the largest in the
nation, the national market for basic industries is increasingly
located inside the region. The region becomes more attractive to
manufacturing and other industries. Transportation and other
communication costs to markets are reduced. The region becomes
less dependent on exports to other regions and less susceptible
to competition from other regions in the effort to attract basic
industry. As a result, regional growth becomes more self-
sustaining, generating growth internally rather than capturing it
at the expense of other regions.
The growth of the regional market has been very important to
the growth of the Sunbelt and will become increasingly important
as the region continues to grow and other advantages diminish.
The importance of the market as a factor in industrial location
in general, and present and future growth of the South in partic-
ular, is emphasized by many studies of both national and southern
industrial locational decisions that have found access to markets
to be a prime determinant of such decisions (Moriarty et al.,
1980).
2.2.4 Transportation
Although transport costs are less important than they once
were because of the decline in transportation costs relative to
other inputs, they are still a major factor in the locational
decisions of many industries, particularly those with bulky or
low value inputs or products (Smith, 1971; Moriarty et al.,
1980). Poor rail and highway transportation networks along with
discriminatory rate structures have been widely cited as one of
the hindrances to southern industrialization prior to World War
II (Watkins and Perry, 1977; Serow, 1981).
Since World War II, however, improvements in transportation
networks, often financed with federal funds, have increased the
2-19
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accessibility of the South. Studies of firms locating in the
South today indicate the availability of transportation to be a
major criterion in their choice of state or region (Moriarty et
al., 1980). Federal highway construction since 1950, combined""
with the shift of most freight to the highways from the rail-
roads, opened many areas of the South, especially nonmetropolitan
areas, to manufacturing. For example, a study of industrial lo-
cation in nonmetropolitan Kentucky found the presence of a lim-
ited access highway affected branch plant location (Cromley and
Leinbach, 1981). Extensive port development, particularly along
the Gulf Coast, has allowed cargo tonnage handled by these ports
to increase dramatically. Waterborne imports and exports handled
by Gulf ports increased by almost 600 percent between 1960 and
1979 in contrast to only 177 percent for the nation as a whole
(U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980, p. 675). New
Orleans, Houston, and Baton Rouge were the second, third, and
fourth largest U.S. ports by tonnage handled in 1976 (Greene et
al., 1978, p. 238). Extensive federal improvements to inland
waterways, particularly to the Tennessee/Ohio/Mississippi system
and to the Tombigbee system, have increased the accessibility of
the basins they serve to low cost barge traffic. The connection
of the port of Mobile on the Gulf Coast with the Tennessee River
by the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway presently under construction
will further improve the accessibility of the East Southcentral
states. Airport construction has proceeded at a rapid pace in
the South. Atlanta and Dallas/Ft. Worth have developed into ma-
jor regional air hubs with excellent connections to the rest of
the nation (Greene et al., 1978, pp. 169-70). Other major centers
in the South include Houston, New Orleans, Tampa, and Miami. In
1975, Texas, Georgia, and Florida were among the leading six
states in air carrier activity (Greene et al., 1978, pp. 169-70).
In contrast to many other major airports throughout the nation
which are projected to be near saturation by 1987, all major Sun-
belt airports except Nashville Metro, Charlotte-Douglas Munici-
pal, and Albuquerque International have considerable available
capacity. Finally, the Texas/Louisiana/Oklahoma area remains the
focus of the United States petroleum and natural gas pipeline
distribution system, providing many Sunbelt states with good
access to oil and gas for both fuel and raw material use (Oxford
Economic Atlas, 1975).
2.2.5 Development of Agglomeration Economies
The geographic concentration of manufacturing plants can
bring economic benefits which are impossible to obtain in more
isolated locations. These benefits, or agglomeration economies,
will continue to be important to the continued attractiveness of
the South to industry. They contribute to a self-sustaining mo-
mentum; as more firms locate in an area they create additional
agglomeration economies that attract additional firms. Such
economies become increas-ingly important to regional industrial
2-20
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location as advantages in other costs, such as labor, diminish or
become negative. Such development of agglomeration economies is
considered by some authorities to be one of the prime determi-
nants of regional growth (see Wheaton, 1979a, p. 7).
Agglomeration economies are of two major types—economies of
localization, which arise from the concentration of related
firms, and urbanization economies, which arise from the concen-
tration of industrial activity in general. Economies of locali-
zation include savings in communication and transport costs when
materials, products, contacts, and information flow between firms
in the same or related industries. Other localization economies
include the development of a trained pool of labor, specialized
research and educational facilities, and specialized service in-
dustries such as equipment repair, component and container sup-
pliers, and marketing organizations. Such economies attracted
the textile machinery industry to the South on the heels of the
textile industry itself and are responsible for the concentra-
tion of the petroleum exploration equipment manufacturing industry
in the region. They are important to the location of firms in
industrial complexes such as the traditional industrial core
of primary metals, fabricated metals, machinery, and transporta-
tion equipment and to the petroleum refining/chemicals/plastics/
synthetic textiles group of industries, all of which have grown
rapidly in the South in recent years. Carlton (1979) found that
the existing size of certain industries in a metropolitan area
was a prime determinant of growth in those industries.
Urbanization economies generally arise from the availability
of a large, high quality labor force and from the availability of
infrastructure in larger cities or well integrated systems of
cities. Such infrastructure includes transportation facilities,
educational facilities, urban services such as water supply and
treatment, sewers and waste management, and electrical utilities.
Large economies of scale in the provision of these facilities,
and their expense, emphasize the role of large cities, the states,
and the federal government in their provision. It is generally
agreed that the infrastructure available in the South prior to
World War II was inadequate for wide-scale industrialization and
that extensive improvements since then have been vital to the
South's development (e.g., Watkins and Perry, 1977). Federal
highway construction, port development, and other transportation
improvements, as discussed previously, have been very important
to the opening of the South.
The federal government has also taken a major role in the de-
velopment of sewer capacity and electrical generating capacity,
(e.g., the Tennessee Valley Authority). The increase in the popu-
lation size, per capita income, and economic base of southern
cities has allowed them increasingly to participate in the provi-
sion of these services. The development of an adequate infra-
structural base is both time consuming and expensive, but it is
2-21
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also cumulative and has contributed significantly to the develop-
ment of the South and its ability to sustain growth.
At some point, industrial cities and regions can reach sizes
where costs of concentration exceed further agglomeration econo-
mies, after which such regions lose much of their attractiveness
to further development. Concentration costs include the costs of
congestion, higher land and labor prices, increasing labor organ-
ization and militancy, increasing costs to scale in the provision
of infrastructure, and costs of meeting air quality standards. A
common explanation for the northern decline in manufacturing in
the face of rapid southern growth is a large difference between
the two regions in the ratio of agglomeration economies to con-
centration costs (e.g., Mills, 1980). It is thought the costs of
concentration in the larger metropolitan areas of the North and
the need to replace the aging northern infrastructure and capital
base make the North relatively unattractive to additional growth.
In the South, in contrast, agglomeration economies have grown to
the point where they are substantial and concentration costs are
still low, creating a relatively favorable environment for
growth. It is probable that the ratio of agglomeration economies
to concentration costs in the South will remain favorable for
some time in the future, thereby encouraging rapid growth. The
length of this period will depend to some extent on the rate of
investment in, and repair of, infrastructure and the success of
the South in managing growth.
2.2.6 Development of an Innovative Capacity
As discussed previously, most of the growth in manufacturing
capacity in the South has been growth in standardized production
capacity for products developed elsewhere. Such growth is not
associated with the same security and permanence as growth with a
better balance of both innovative capacity and production capaci-
ty. Growth based on innovation is less susceptible to external
control and to competition from low cost production regions. As
some of the resource cost advantages of the South diminish, the
innovative capacity of the South may become a more important de-
terminant of growth. At the present time, innovative capacity
continues to be highly concentrated in the large metropolitan
areas of the North and California (Hekman, 1980; Rees, 1979a;
Cohen, 1977; Malecki, 1980). The position of the South in 1976
was surveyed by Malecki (1980). Only Houston, Dallas/Ft. Worth,
and Austin, Texas, and Huntsville, Alabama, ranked among the top
twenty metropolitan areas on any of four measures of innovative
capacity—number of industrial research and development labs,
number of scientists and engineers, number of federally funded
scientists and engineers, and university based research and de-
velopment. When all measures were combined in one index stan-
dardized for population, the South fared slightly better; Tulsa,
2-22
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Oklahoma; Albuquerque, New Mexico; Knoxville, Tennessee; Orlando,
Florida,- and Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, were added to the
list. But still only 8 of the 44 Standard Metropolitan Statisti-
cal Areas (SMSAs) with a concentration of research and development
(R&D) activity were located in the study area.
Authorities differ sharply over the ability of the South to
develop a substantial innovative capacity. For example, Malecki
and Cohen assert that recent growth in the Sunbelt in the high
technology industries is primarily production capacity, with
innovative functions still largely located elsewhere. Malecki
notes that industrial R&D, the type of research and development
most closely correlated with the development of new products, is
very closely correlated with the location of the very largest
metropolitan areas, most of which are located in the North and
California. Federally funded research and development tends to
dominate all of the previously noted R&D centers in the Sunbelt
with the exception of Houston, Dallas/Ft. Worth, and Tulsa. Only
in Huntsville, Austin, and Raleigh/Durham have federal facilities
and universities attracted industrial research. With recent and
expected future cutbacks in federally sponsored space and energy
research, the prospects for continued strong research and devel-
opment activity in Albuquerque, Knoxville, and Hunstville dimin-
ish. Thus, in this view, the long-run generation of a substan-
tial innovative capacity in the South may be very slow in coming
and depend on the extent to which Sunbelt metropolitan areas
achieve premier rank within the nation in population, access to
information, and quality educational institutions.
Norton and Rees (1979), Sale (1977), and Watkins and Perry
(1977) are more optimistic. They point to the rapid growth in
the South of the high technology electronics, computer, aero-
space, instruments, chemicals, and plastics industries and in-
creasing innovative functions. They hypothesize that spinoffs
from federally funded R&D and the location of branch production
plants in high technology industries can generate an innovative
capability through the migration of technical personnel and en-
trepreneurs and the build up of agglomeration economies and re-
gional demand. Rees (1979b) notes that the largest Sunbelt met-
tropolitan areas, Dallas/Ft. Worth and Houston, have managed to
develop an innovative capacity as evidenced by the fact that
most new manufacturing plants are new firms rather than branch
plants and that most new branches are established by instate
firms.
2.2.7 Governmental Policies
Accounts in the press of southern growth and northern stagna-
tion have highlighted the role of governmental policies. Region-
al imbalances in the ratio of federal expenditures to federal
revenues have become a source of regional conflict, leading to
2-23
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such accounts as the "Second War Between the States" (Business
Week, 1976). State and local tax policies and incentive programs
are widely perceived as having helped create a "favorable busi-
ness climate" in southern states that have attracted industry.
This section discusses the role of these policies in the growth
of the South.
A. Federal Spending Policies
For a considerable time, the federal government has spent
more money in the South and West than it has collected in tax
revenue; the opposite has been the case for the Northeast and
Midwest. In 1979, for example, the ratio of spending to taxes
was 1.12 for the South and 1.05 for the West, but only 0.94 for
the Northeast and 0.79 for the Midwest (Table 2-8). These imbal-
ances created an inflow of 16 billion dollars to the South and an
outflow of 34 billion dollars in the combined Northeast and Mid-
west. Within the South, most states have a net inflow of federal
funds (Table 2-9). Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and
New Mexico had especially high spending to taxes ratios. The ab-
solute inflow was greatest in Tennessee, Florida,, New Mexico,
Mississippi, and Alabama; only North Carolina and Texas experi-
enced a net outflow. Geographic imbalances in the flow of federal
funds have been generally declining over the past 30 years. For
example, in 1952 the spending to taxes ratio was approximately 1.5
for the South as a whole and over 2.0 for selected states
(Labovitz, 1978).
However, the favorable position of the South is, in part, a
function of the fact that the federal income tax is progressive.
Southerners have lower per capita incomes and therefore pay lower
per capita taxes. In 1979, federal tax receipts per capita
ranged from 63 percent of the national average in Mississippi to
101 percent in Texas (Tables 2-8 and 2-9). However, federal
spending per capita, also tended to be low. Although not gener-
ally as small a proportion of the national average as for taxes,
it was above the national average of 2,101 dollars in only three
states—Florida, New Mexico, and Tennessee. The federal govern-
ment spent less than 90 percent of the national per capita aver-
age in five southern states—Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North
Carolina, and South Carolina. The fact that southern states have
experienced a net inflow but at the same time have received below
average per capita expenditures has generated a lively debate
over the equity of the dollar flow imbalances (Haveman,
Stanfield, and Pierce, 1976; Toal, 1977; Jusenius and Ledebur,
1977). Federal spending per capita in the South has been high in
only a few categories (Peterson and Muller, 1980). Per capita
defense salary expenditures and aerospace expenditures have been
high in the South because of the large number of military bases
and space program facilities in the South. Competitive bidding
for a variety of goods purchased by the federal government has
2-24
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TABLE 2-8:
REGIONAL IMBALANCES IN FEDERAL SPENDING
AND TAXES, 1979^
Fiscal 1979
Location
Spending Taxes Spending/ Dollar Flow
Per Person Per Person Taxes Ratio (in millions)
Northeast
New England
Mid-Atlantic
Midwest
Great Lakes
Great Plains
South
South Atlantic
South Central
West
Mountain
Pacific
Washington, D.C.
Total U.S.
$2,058
2,399
1.964
1,738
1,609
2,048
2,090
2,188
1,997
2,348
2,315
2,359
23,529
$2,101
$2,200
2,145
2,219
2,202
2,275
2,023
1,864
1,908
1,822
2,240
1,928
2,350
2,750
$2,101
$0.94
1.09
0.88
0.79
0.71
1.01
1.12
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.20
1.00
8.56
$1.00
-$ 6,969
2,390
-9,359
-27,068
-27,483
415
16,003
9,596
6,407
4,403
4,129
274
13,631
$0
Source: Data compiled from Havemann and Stanfield, 1981.
aThe columns show: (1) federal spending per person; (2) the fed-
eral tax burden per person, with the federal deficit distributed
as an added tax; (3) the amount of money received for each tax
dollar; and (4) total funds that flowed in or out.
tended to favor the South's low production costs. Defense con-
tracts have, on the whole, tended to favor the Northeast and the
West, however. Grants-in-aid to state and local governments for
public works and employment favored the South prior to the middle
1970s, but, after complaints by the North, formulas were changed
to increase emphasis on the unemployment rate, thus favoring the
North. Despite high per capita payments for retirement programs
to Florida and high per capita welfare payments to the East
Southcentral states, per capita transfer payments for the South
as a whole are very near national averages.
An inflow of federal funds can operate to stimulate regional
economic development in several ways. The purchase of goods from
2-25
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TABLE 2-9:
SOUTHERN STATE IMBALANCES INT FEDERAL SPENDING
AND TAXES, 1979^
Location
Fiscal 1979
Spending
Per Person
Taxes
Per Person
Spending/ Dollar Flow
Taxes Ratio (in millions)
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
$1,968
1,815
2,217
1,901
1,872
1,866
2,073
3,138
1,612
2,037
1,834
2,378
1,960
$1,595
1,464
1,999
1,708
1,678
1,773
1,314
1,640
1,658
1,871
1,577
1,711
2,116
$1.23
1.24
1.11
1.11
1.12
1.05
1.58
1.91
0.97
1.09
1.16
1.39
0.93
$1,406
766
1,934
985
683
377
1,845
1,859
-262
481
753
2,925
-2,075
Source: Data compiled from Havemann and Stanfield, 1981.
aThe columns show: (1) federal spending per person; (2) the fed-
eral tax burden per person, with the federal deficit distributed
as an added tax; (3) the amount of money received for each tax
dollar; and (4) total funds that flowed in or out.
southern manufacturers encourages the location of industry in the
South. The development of major aerospace facilities in the
South has encouraged the development of high technology industry
and may have contributed to the development of an increased
southern innovative capacity. Salaries of federal employees and
transfer payments add purchasing power to the southern market and
are themselves as valuable a basic industry as any other. Grants-
in-aid for public works have been vital to the development of an
infrastructure attractive to industry. And direct federal con-
struction of transportation facilities such as highways and inland
waterways has contributed significantly to the ability of the
South to attract transport oriented industry.
Although this net inflow of federal funds has been an impor-
tant source of economic base in the South, observers differ over
the magnitude of the effect and its importance to the growth of
the Sunbelt. Richardson (1978, 1979, pp. 269-70), Sale (1977),
and Watkins and Perry (1977) ascribe first-rate importance to the
effect of federal spending. However, Peterson and Muller (1980)
2-26
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and Oakland (1979) are more cautious, emphasizing market forces
and the complexity and flexibility of interregional patterns of
production within a national economy unhampered by trade barriers.
The probable effect of the projected declines in regional dispari-
ties in dollar flows as incomes rise in the South and spending
formulas change will depend on the actual importance of inflows of
federal funds in the past and the extent to which southern devel-
opment has become self-sustaining.
B. State and Local Policies
1. State and Local Taxes
Many states and localities throughout the South and the na-
tion as a whole believe that economic growth may bring substan-
tial benefits and have developed policies and programs to attract
industry. These programs are widely perceived by the public and
public leaders to contribute to the favorable business climate of
many areas of the country, including the Sunbelt (Boren, 1980;
Padda, 1981). The actual effect of these policies is highly con-
troversial. "Business climate" and many of the business-related
policies and activities of government are very difficult to mea-
sure and therefore to include in statistical analyses of economic
growth rates. Available evidence, however, indicates that three
of the policies most widely included in the industrial development
programs of Sunbelt states--tax incentives, financing incentives,
and labor force training programs—may be less effective than is
widely thought, although a definitive evaluation cannot be made on
available evidence.
State and local taxes on industry in the South are generally
below national averages and well below those in the Northeast.
It is often argued these differences contribute strongly to the
attractiveness of the South to industry. In 1976, state corpor-
ate income taxes on income over 25,000 dollars in the study area
ranged from zero percent in Texas to 6 percent in Arkansas, Geor-
gia, and the Carolinas (Moriarty et al., 1980, pp. 250-51). In
contrast, 60 percent of the remaining states had rates of 7 per-
cent or above, with New York, Connecticut, Minnesota, and Arizona
having rates of 10 percent or above. Unemployment insurance
rates in 1979 were an average 2.7 percent of payroll in the
United States, but all study area states except Alabama and Loui-
siana had rates under 2.2 percent (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur.
of Census, 1980, p. 361). Local property taxes per capita ranged
from 49 dollars in Alabama to 171 dollars in Texas. Except for
Texas, each southern state ranked in the lower half of all states
(Moriarty et al., 1980, pp. 250-51). In contrast, per capita prop-
erty taxes in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York
were above 330 dollars.
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Tax incentives for new and expanding businesses are widely
offered by states and localities in an attempt to attract indus-
try. They include corporate income tax and property tax exemp-
tions for specified time periods, excise tax and sales tax exemp-
tions, tax exemptions on raw materials used in manufacturing, and
investment tax credits. Each state in the U.S. provides some
combination of these incentives. Although individual Sunbelt
states, such as Alabama, provide a great variety of exemptions,
Sunbelt states as a whole do not tend to provide more exemptions
than nonsouthern states (Vaughn, 1979, pp. 96-97).
In spite of the general perception that low taxes and tax in-
centives attract industry, the consensus among researchers, with
a few exceptions, is that such business tax advantages have not
played a significant role in industrial location in general or
the growth of the Sunbelt in particular, although they may have
had a small effect on the growth of given states or localities
within the Sunbelt (Vaughan, 1979; Pluta, 1980; Kieschnick,
1981; Harrison and Kanter, 1978; Boren, 1980; and Moriarty et
al., 1980). The evidence indicates that state and local taxes
are a very small percentage of output value and that geographical
variation in the amount of taxes paid is a small percentage, less
than 5 to 10 percent, of locationally variable costs. Labor
costs, access to markets, raw material prices, transportation
costs, amenities, and infrastructure all are more important to
the firm and vary more between regions, indicating choice of re-
gion is more likely to be determined by variation in these costs.
Within a state or region, labor, transportation, and raw materi-
al costs are more uniform, with the result that state and local
variations in taxes may be more significant.
Extensive empirical research supports these conclusions.
Surveys of company executives on their reasons for locational
decisions indicate tax levels and tax incentives have very little
impact on decisions even in the minds of businessmen (Moriarity
et al., 1980). Econometric studies of economic growth show the
correlation between growth rates and various measures of state
and local taxes are insignificant, even after controlling for
other variables (Carlton, 1979; and Kieschnick, 1981).
2. Other State and Local Incentives
States and localities typically offer two other types of in-
centives, financing assistance, and labor force training. Many
state and local programs, some financed in part with federal mon-
ey, have been designed to increase the availability or decrease
the cost of capital to firms agreeing to locate in the state or
locality. Various programs make grants and loans, guarantee com-
mercial loans, and build facilities that are then leased or sold
on favorable terms (Moriarty et al., 1980, pp. 276-90). Such
incentives are available throughout the nation, although certain
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Sunbelt states—Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, and Oklahoma—have
particularly active programs (Padda, 1981). Several Sunbelt
states—Florida, North Carolina, and Kentucky in particular—
offer extensive labor force development programs to industry
(Clarke and Dodson, 1979; North Carolina, n.d.; Kentucky, n.d.).
Both Kentucky and North Carolina offer training programs individ-
ualized to the needs of new and existing employers.
The impact of these programs on the location of industry is
uncertain and has attracted little research. Such services are
useful to firms, but it is unclear whether these programs actual-
ly influence locational or expansion decisions or whether they
simply provide a valued subsidy to industry without any recipro-
cal benefits accruing to the public. Financing is generally not
a problem for branch plants of established firms because they
have access to national capital markets and equity funds. How-
ever, small, independent, and high risk firms often do not have
access to capital and may benefit from financial incentives.
Skills levels have been lower in southern populations so that
some form of training has been important to the growth of manu-
facturing, but many firms are willing to provide training them-
selves in exchange for a work force with other desirable
characteristics.
2.2.8 Summary of Characteristics Affecting Economic Growth
Growth in a regional economy is related to its ability to at-
tract basic industry, or those industries such as manufacturing,
agriculture, and mining which serve national markets. From 1920
to 1960, the decline in agricultural employment in the South was
so rapid that even a steady rise in manufacturing employment was
unable to generate anything but slow population and employment
growth. However, since 1960, the decrease in agricultural employ-
ment has diminished to the point that a continued steady rise in
manufacturing employment has resulted in strong overall economic
growth in the South at a time when growth in both manufacturing
and total employment has been sluggish in the northern industrial
belt.
Considerable controversy exists over the reasons why the
South has attracted and continued to attract growth in manufac-
turing. Among the reasons considered to be most imporant by most
analysts are:
• Lower labor costs because of lower wages, a plentiful
labor supply, and low levels of union activity;
• Federal spending, especially on retirement benefits,
defense salaries, aerospace industries, and infrastruc-
ture such as highways;
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• The development of a large regional market; and
• The growth of southern cities and the southern manufac-
turing sector to the point where the available infra-
structure and specialized support services, the pool of
trained labor, and interindustry linkages attract addi-
tional industry.
Of less but still major importance, especially in localized
areas, may be the availability of:
• Relatively plentiful, low cost energy supplies;
• Improved transportation;
• Certain raw materials such as agricultural and forest
products, petroleum, and minerals; and
• Relatively plentiful water supplies and unpolluted air.
State and local tax rates rand tax or other economic incentives
are generally thought to be of minor importance to the location
of industry in the region, although they do influence the selec-
tion of a site within the region. Other state policies contribu-
ting to a favorable business climate have not been well studied,
with the result that their impact on regional growth rates cannot
be evaluated.
Of course, the determinants of industrial location vary by
industry and by individual plant within each industry. The pre-
vious conclusions about the relative importance of factors of lo-
cation therefore do not apply equally to all southern industries.
For example, energy supplies and prices have been very important
in attracting certain primary metals industries to the South, and
southern forest resources have been a major cause of the growth
in the lumber and wood products and pulp and paper sectors. Thus,
even though energy prices and raw materials have been of lesser
importance in the overall industrialization of the South, they may
be crucial to the growth of certain sectors.
2.3 CHARACTERISTICS ATTRACTING PEOPLE
Considerable evidence suggests the ability of a region to
attract industry is not the sole determinant of regional economic
and population growth. The ability of a region to attract
people, as determined by the amenities and overall quality of
life it offers, is also important. This section looks first at
the ways the amenities of a region may affect growth and the evi-
dence for the importance of amenities in regional growth in
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recent years. Then the amenities possessed by the South and their
role in southern growth are evaluated.
2.3.1 Effects of Amenities on Growth
The quality of life in a region encourages population and
economic growth in three ways—by attracting the retired, by at-
tracting labor force migrants who then create a ready supply of
labor that attracts industry, and by directly attracting firms.
All three mechanisms generate an economic base, which contributes
to the economic and population growth of the region.
A. The Retired
On retiring, people cut some of the ties that have bound them
to their region of residence and may decide to move to some other
area. Although they are the least mobile of all demographic sub-
populations, the retired are in many respects most free to re-
spond to quality of life considerations in their choice of resi-
dence. Recent studies have documented the importance of ameni-
ties to migration decisions of retirees. For example, one study
of retired migrants in the Northcentral Region found that 30 per-
cent cited "environmental" reasons for their choice of destina-
tion (Williams and McMillen, 1980). Another national study found
that 12 percent of migrating retirees cited climate as a major
reason for their move (Plaut, 1981a). The influence of amenity
considerations on migration decisions of the retired to the Sun-
belt is immediately apparent from the high migration rates of
this group to Florida, the mountains of northern New Mexico and
northwest Arkansas, and the warm dry regions of southern Texas
and New Mexico. The migration of the retired can stimulate the
economy of a region. Retirees often bring exogenous sources of
income to a region in the form of pensions and savings originat-
ing outside of the region and federal transfer payments. All
these sources of income can serve as regional economic base.
Yet, retirees can also impose burdens on a region in the form of
increased demands for publicly provided social and welfare ser-
vices .
B. Labor Force Migration
Considerable recent evidence suggests that wage earners often
enter the labor force in a region for reasons primarily related
to amenities rather than economic opportunities, either by actual
migration or by searching for employment at a distance. Recent
studies indicate that a substantial percentage of households
(typically 30 to 75 percent, depending on the subpopulation and
geographic area) give primarily consumptive reasons related to
housing or the amenities of the location as the reasons for their
2-31
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move rather than productive reasons related to improvement of
financial status (Zuiches, 1980; Plant, 1981a; Williams and
McMillen, 1980). Stevens (1980) surveyed recent, nonretired mi-
grants to an amenity-rich and rapidly growing area of southwest
Oregon; his results demonstrate that amenities were much more im-
portant to the decisions of households to move to this area than
were economic considerations. These studies may overemphasize the
role of amenities relative to employment factors and may not gen-
eralize well to the South, but they do indicate amenities can be
very important to the migration of the labor force.
Labor force migration for amenity-related reasons creates in
the destination area an available supply of employees often will-
ing to accept wages below those in less desirable areas. Such a
labor force may strongly attract certain industrial employers,
although disagreement exists on the importance of this mechanism
to industrial location, particularly in the South. Much of the
disagreement centers around the issue of whether, in general,
people follow jobs or jobs follow people. A number of recent econ-
ometric studies have investigated the question (Wheaton, 1979b;
Muth, 1971; Plaut, 1981b; Steinnes, 1978; Greenwood, 1975; and
Olvey, 1972). All concluded that migration and employment growth
are interrelated; Muth and Steinnes concluded migration has the
best claim to being the first cause, Olvey favored the traditional
view that employment growth was primary, and Plaut, Wheaton, and
Greenwood refrained from endorsing either position. The overall
role of amenities in migration decisions is also controversial.
Although the surveys of migrants generally indicate that they be-
lieve amenities are very important, econometric studies based on
behavior rather than opinion are mixed (Plaut, 1981b; Muth, 1971;
Graves, 1976; Cebula and Vedder, 1973). All indicate economic
factors--wages, unemployment, and employment growth—are important
determinants of migration. Some find that amenity variables such
as climate, city size, crime rate, and air pollution influence
migration, but others find no such evidence. Wheaton (1979b) pre-
sents evidence suggesting that the contradictory results may be
because of the existence of two subpopulations of rapidly growing
cities--one in which amenities are attracting migrants who then
attract industry, and another where traditional determinants of
industrial location such as lower wages are attracting industry
which then attracts migrants. He finds, however, that with a few
exceptions (e.g., Miami, San Antonio, Albuquerque), most rapidly
growing Sunbelt cities fall in the category suggesting employment
growth rather than amenities is driving expansion.
C. Industrial Location Decisions
Many industries, or functions within industries, are increas-
ingly free of locational constraints, without close ties to ei-
ther raw material or market sites. Such industries are free to
consider the amenities of .potential sites and their attractiveness
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to employees. Such amenities are particularly important to the
ability to attract and retain professional and managerial em-
ployees. Although evidence about the overall impact of amenities
on industrial location decisions is not extensive, there is grow-
ing empirical evidence that amenity considerations are important
to small entrepreneurs choosing a location for their firm, to
facilities with a high proportion of professional and managerial
employees, and even to locational decisions for branch plants
where cost considerations still predominate (Smith, 1971;
Moriarty et al., 1980). In a study of intercity moves of corpor-
ate headquarters showing a net movement to the South and the
West, Burns and Pang (1977) found such moves were more sensitive
to the availability of community amenities than to costs or other
business factors.
2.3.2 ThevAmenities of the South
The South in general, and certain localities in particular,
possess a number of amenities identified by migration research as
important to the ability of an area to attract people. In addi-
tion, income growth, an increase in homogeneity of regional popu-
lations, and a growth of the southern metropolitan system have
gone far to erase many of the negative features traditionally
associated with the South. This section describes southern ameni-
ties and discusses recent efforts to describe the overall quality
of life in the South.
A. Less Metropolitan Living
Perhaps the most important amenity-related reason given for
migration in recent years is a growing preference for a less met-
ropolitan, nonmetropolitan, or even rural environment. The ma-
jority of the U.S. population prefers small town living, although
the proportion drops dramatically if the small town is far from a
metropolitan center or if such a move involves an income cut
(Carpenter, 1980; Zuiches and Fuguitt, 1976). Frequently cited
contrasts between more metropolitan and less metropolitan areas
involve (Stevens, 1980; Williams and McMillen, 1980):
• Desirability as a place to raise children;
• Pace of daily life;
• Safety from crime and violence;
• Crowding and congestion;
• Friendliness of people;
• Environmental pollution;
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• Taxes; and
• Cost of living.
The South, with the largest total population of any region,
is at present the least metropolitanized of any region in the
U.S. (Table 2-10). Only 22 percent of the southern population
lives in large metropolitan areas of over 1.5 million population
as opposed to 39 to 50 percent of the population in the other
regions. In contrast, 36 percent of the South's population lives
in nonmetropolitan areas, compared to only 15 percent in the
Northeast, 30 percent in the Northcentral Region, and 20 percent
in the West. The percentage of the population in each of these
categories is not an accurate measure of the availability of less
metropolitan areas to the migrant, but it does indicate that the
South offers attractive opportunities to the migrant with an
antimetropolitan outlook.
Statistics to measure the performance of the South in terms
of the attributes associated in the minds of migrants with a less
metropolitan environment are often lacking, and it is uncertain
to what extent migrants know about or investigate differences in
some of these attributes. The South has, however, traditionally
had a reputation for a slower, more relaxed pace of life and for
the friendliness of its people. As discussed previously, the en-
vironmental quality of the South has been favorable. Crime rates
were lower in the South in the past, but the most recent data in-
dicate this is no longer true (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of
Census, 1980, p. 183; 1978 p. 8). Personal taxes and the cost of
TABLE 2-10: REGIONAL POPULATION BY SIZE
OF METROPOLITAN AREA, 1977
Region
Percent of Total Population
Total Large Small
Population Metropolitan Metropolitan Non-
(1,000) (>1.5 million) (<1.5 million) metropolitan
Northeast
North-
central
South
West
49,209
57,941
69,849
39,262
57
39
22
44
28
31
42
36
15
30
36
20
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980, p. 19.
2-34
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living are still well below national averages, as discussed in a
later section.
If the South as a whole, and metropolitan areas in particu-
lar, continue to grow rapidly, as they are projected to do, the
South will become increasingly metropolitan in character with an
increase in metropolitan problems related to congestion, pace of
life, crime rate, environmental quality, and so on. Many areas in
the South will remain attractive to the migrant with an antimetro-
politan bias, but many individual cities and perhaps the region as
a whole may lose their distinctiveness in this respect.
B. Climate, Recreational Opportunities, and Landscape
Amenities related to the climate, recreational opportunities,
and the landscape increase the attractiveness of an area and have
become increasingly important as leisure and incomes increase.
Mild winter temperatures—now that air conditioning is widely
available to moderate hot, humid summers—have been advanced as a
major reason for the recent rapid growth of the southern half of
the United States. Even the term "Sunbelt" attests to the wide-
spread perception of the importance of climate. The empirical
evidence for the importance of this variable in the migration of
the retired is strong; Florida, Texas, and New Mexico, and even
the mountains along the top rim of the Sunbelt have received large
numbers of migrants from the North attracted to their milder cli-
mates. However, the evidence of the importance of climate in the
migration of the labor force and industry is mixed. Climate vari-
ables are sometimes significant and sometimes insignificant in
studies of labor force migration and industrial location after the
effect of other variables is accounted for (Wheaton, 1979b; Plaut,
1981b; Graves, 1976; Cebula and Vedder, 1973; Burns and Pang,
1977).
The availability of outdoor recreational opportunities and
attractive landscapes—particularly mountains, rivers, lakes, and
beaches—appears to contribute significantly to the growth of
certain areas of the United States, by attracting both retirees
and labor force migrants. The rapid growth of such areas as
southwest Oregon, northern California, northern Michigan, and the
Rocky Mountain states indicates the influence of these variables
(see, e.g., Stevens, 1980). Within the South, the mountains of
northwest New Mexico, the Appalachians, the Ozarks, the Florida
peninsula, and the many man-made lakes created over the past 50
years present excellent recreation opportunities and attractive
landscapes. The rapid growth of many of these areas has been
attributed at least in part to these features (Roseman, 1977).
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C. Taxes and Cost-of-Living
Regional and metropolitan/nonmetropolitan differences in per-
sonal taxes and the cost-of-living exist and can be substantial.
Surveys have documented the importance of these variables to many
migrants, especially the retired, and employers are finding it
increasingly hard to attract high salaried employees to the high
income tax states of the North (Weinstein and Firestine, 1978,
p. 25; Stevens, 1980; Williams and McMillen, 1980r Marfin, 1981).
The South continues to possess definite advantages on both
counts. As Table 2-11 indicates, budgets for an intermediate
standard of living for a four-person family in metropolitan areas
in the South are 1,000 to 3,000 dollars below the U.S. metropoli-
tan average and, in almost all cases, below the U.S. nonmetropoli-
tan average. Although budgets in nonsouthern SMSA's vary, they
are rarely as low as budgets in the most expensive southern SMSA
and in some cases are up to 6,000 dollars higher. Total state
and local taxes per capita, including business taxes but primari-
ly composed of taxes paid by households, ranged in the study area
from 553 dollars in Arkansas to 763 dollars in New Mexico in 1978
(U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980, p. 299). The na-
tional average was 888 dollars, with 8 states, including Califor-
nia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, and New York, all above 1,000
dollars.
The South is projected to continue to possess cost-of-living
and tax advantages for a number of years. However, these gaps
are gradually changing. The cost-of-living is increasing more
rapidly in southern cities than in nonsouthern cities (Weinstein,
1981). Taxes have remained low in the South in large part be-
cause expenditures on public services have been low. Rapid popu-
lation growth, requiring new investment in public services, and
an influx of migrants used to higher levels of these services may
require increases in tax rates.
D. Socioeconomic and Metropolitan Amenities
Prevailing wage levels are generally considered to be a de-
terminant of the attractiveness of a region to migrants, although
by no means the only determinant (Richardson, 1978, 1979, pp. 105-
13; Muth, 1971; Graves, 1976; Plaut, 1981b). In addition, many
people care about the social and economic characteristics of po-
tential neighbors and friends and the ability and willingness of
communities to provide high quality public services. The availa-
bility of cultural amenities typically associated with metropoli-
tan areas is also important to many migration decisions. High
per capita incomes and education levels contribute, but are not
necessary, to the provision of many of these amenities. They in-
clude the arts, entertainment, professional sports, high quality
educational facilities, shopping, and professional services such
as medical care. The availability of these amenities has
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TABLE 2-11: URBAN INTERMEDIATE BUDGET FOR A FOUR-PERSON
FAMILY, 1978
Area Budget ($)
U.S. Nonmetropolitan 17,016
U.S. Metropolitan 18,982
Southern SMSAs
Atlanta, Georgia 16,897
Austin, Texas 16,211
Baton Rouge, Louisiana 16,806
Dallas, Texas 16,714
Durham, North Carolina 18,074
Houston, Texas 17,114
Nashville, Tennessee 16,627
Orlando, Florida 16,334
Nonsouthern SMSAs
Baltimore, Maryland 18,699
Boston, Massachusetts 22,117
Buffalo, New York 19,517
Cleveland, Ohio 18,987
Detroit, Michigan 19,145
Hartford, Connecticut 19,392
Lancaster, Pennsylvania 17,982
Los Angeles-Long Beach, California 17,722
New York, New York 21,587
St. Louis, Missouri 17,897
San Diego, California 17,707
Seattle, Washington 18,671
Washington, D.C. 20,105
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1979, p. 488.
contributed to the ability of major metropolitan areas to survive
in the face of high congestion costs. The importance of access to
these amenities is indicated by the fact, cited earlier, that only
a small proportion of the population would care to live in a small
town if it were far from a metropolitan area. These amenities are
especially important to the migration decisions of professional
and managerial employees and the location of economic activities
relying on such personnel. For example, the amenities most impor-
tant to the relocation of corporate headquarters include cultural
activities, educational opportunities, and entertainment (Burns
and Pang, 1977).
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In the past, many areas of the South have offered poor wages
and have been characterized by high levels of poverty and below-
average public services, including education. Because of the
lower socioeconomic status of the South and the lack of a well-
developed network of metropolitan areas, the South has tended to
offer fewer of the cultural amenities associated with the metro-
politan areas of the North and the Pacific Coast. The lack of
these socioeconomic and metropolitan amenities has acted as a
deterrent to the ability of the South to attract migrants, espe-
cially professional and managerial migrants.
However, with rising incomes, the growth of cities and metro-
politan areas, and the increased cultural homogenization brought
about by rapid immigration and media such as television, the
South is increasingly able to offer the amenities associated with
the richer, more metropolitan areas of the country (see Chapter 3
for a discussion of population and income changes). The image of
the South in the minds of potential migrants is changing and is
no longer the deterrent to migration that it once was.
E. Overall Quality-of-Lffe
Recent efforts have tried to combine information on a variety
of amenities into indicators that can be used to compare the
quality-of-life among cities, states, and regions. During the
late 1960's and early 1970's the Midwest Research Institute con-
ducted several quality-of-life assessments. One of their major
efforts was intended to produce a picture of conditions in each
of the states during the year 1970 (Liu, 1974). The Sunbelt
states did not rate highly (see Table 2-12). Some states were
consistently rated substandard--for example, Alabama, North Caro-
lina, and South Carolina each received substandard ratings in
seven out of the nine indicator areas. At least one-half or more
of the 13 states included in the study area were rated substan-
dard in the areas of living conditions, technology, economic sta-
tus, education, and state and local governments. There were,
however, some isolated instances of excellent ratings. New Mex-
ico achieved an excellent rating for technology; Florida's agri-
cultural production was rated excellent based on factors such as
capital intensity and the economies of scale used in the state;
and Oklahoma was rated excellent both for individual equality and
for health and welfare.
Although combining all of these nine indicators to form an
overall index for ranking the states may be misleading in some
ways, Liu did this in order to compare his study results with
other studies. With the exception of Florida, New Mexico, Okla-
homa, and Texas, which rated average, all of the states in re-
gions 4 and 6 ranked in the bottom one-fifth of the list. North-
ern states, on the other hand, tended to be highly rated.
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TABLE 2-12: 1970 QUALITY-OF-LIFE RATINGS FOR STATES
IN THE STUDY AREA
Overall
Quality
of Life
Ranking3
Individual
Statusb
Individual
Equality*3
Living
Conditions*3
Agriculture*3
Technology*3
Economic
Status*5
Education*3
Health and
Welfare*3
State and
Local
Govts.
States
AL AR FL GA KY LA MS NM NC OK SC TN TX
50 44 38 41 48 46 49 24 47 33 51 42 37
BCBBBCCBBBCBB
BBCBBCBBCACBB
CBBCCCCBCBCBB
CBABCBBBCBBCB
CCCCCCCABBCBB
CCBCCBCBCBCCB
CCBCCCCBCBCCB
CBBBBBBBCACBB
CCBCCBCBCBCCB
Rating Key: A = excellent, >(X + s); B = average, (X + s) ;
C = substandard <(X - s).
Source: Taken from Liu, 1973; 1974.
alncludes 50 states and the District of Columbia.
*3Based on criteria developed by the Eisenhower Commission on
National Goals.
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This study has been widely criticized for the way in which
the ratings were developed. More than 100 individual variables
were used to develop the nine composite measures or indicators
described above. A very high proportion of these variables
depend heavily on household incomes and on governmental expendi-
tures. Examples are physicians per capita, motor vehicles per
capita, number of substandard housing units per capita, and per
capita expenditures on education and welfare. The South has never
rated highly on such criteria. Variables on which the South could
be expected to rate highly, including a nonmetropolitan environ-
ment, recreational opportunities, climate, and cost-of-living,
were included but did not receive the same emphasis.
Another attempt to measure the desirability of regions to mi-
grants gives a different picture of overall quality-of-life. The
study determined whether a nationwide sample of respondents de-
sired to live in some other state than that of current residence
(Morgan, 1978). Twenty to 30 percent of the respondents in the
Northeast and Northcentral regions desired to move to some other
region, but only 14 to 17 percent of those in the South desired
to move. If everybody were to move to their state of preference,
the South Atlantic Region would increase by 11 percent, the West
Southcentral by 1.3 percent, and the East Southcentral would re-
main constant. The Northeast and Northcentral regions, with the
exception of New England, would lose large numbers of people.
Thus, according to this measure of regional desirability, which
admittedly does not determine which amenities contribute most to
a region's desirability, the South ranks considerably above the
North but below the West.
2.3.3 Summary of Characteristics Attracting People
The amenities of a region can be important to both the eco-
nomic and population growth of a region. Amenities can attract
the retired whose pensions and savings serve the same function as
a basic industry, migrants in the labor force who then form a
pool of available labor that attracts industry, and industrial
facilities themselves.
The most enduring amenities of the South include the mild
winters and the landscapes and recreational opportunities pro-
vided by the oceans, beaches, mountains, streams, and the many
natural and man-made lakes. Important but less enduring amenities
include low personal and property taxes, a lower cost-of-living,
and the qualities associated with a less metropolitan way of life
such as a more relaxed pace of life, less congestion, and a better
place to raise children. All of the above amenities have been
shown to be important to many migrants and to the growth of at
least certain areas within the South.
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At the same time, the South has traditionally offered fewer
of the amenities associated with the high income metropolitan
areas of the North and the Pacific Coast—high wages, good public
services, excellent educational opportunities, and the highest
quality of professional services, shopping facilities, and cul-
tural activities. The relative lack of such amenities in the
South has hurt its popular image in the past and has been largely
responsible for the low ratings often given to the South in over-
all quality-of-life studies. However, rapidly rising incomes,
economic growth, and growing metropolitan populations in the
South, as well as the homogenizing effects of television and mi-
gration, have narrowed actual and perceived differences between
regions in the provision of these amenities.
2.4 SUMMARY
To a considerable extent the recent rapid growth of the South
has been determined by the ability of the region to attract peo-
ple and manufacturing capacity at a time of slow national growth
in manufacturing. The relative importance of industrial growth
versus population growth as causes in regional growth is highly
controversial, as is the relative importance of the differences
between the South and other regions in attracting both industry
and people to the South. The variables most important to the
growth of the overall economic base of the South probably include
labor cost and availability, federal spending, energy costs and
availability, the growth of the regional market, and the growth
of economies related to the size of cities and the concentration
of industry within the region. Other factors, such as the avail-
ability of raw materials, may be important to individual manufac-
turing sectors such as pulp and paper and petroleum refining. Of
most importance to the ability of the region to attract people
are the climate, the recreational opportunities, the availability
of less metropolitan settings, the lower cost-of-living and
taxes, and the decline in regional disparities in income, educa-
tion, and availability of metropolitan amenities at a reasonable
distance.
Prospects for continued long-term rapid economic and popula-
tion growth depend on the extent to which regional differences in
these variables are likely to persist. The South continues to
possess the advantages listed above, and therefore rapid growth
is projected to continue for the immediate future. However,
changes in any of these variables could slow or reverse the re-
cent growth trends.
Many of the traditional advantages of the South in attracting
industry are losing importance and others are gaining importance.
Wage levels are converging toward national averages and the pool
of surplus agricultural labor has disappeared, although resis-
tance to union activity remains strong in many areas. Federal
2-41
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spending on space and energy is declining, with overall regional
disparities in spending disappearing. Energy price and availa-
bility disparities may become more important in the near future
as the influence of higher energy prices becomes evident, but
regional advantages of the South in the cost of certain energy
forms are gradually disappearing. As the South grows, high qual-
ity air and water resources may become more scarce. Finally, the
fact that the industrial innovative capacity of the South lags
considerably behind the North and California makes continued in-
dustrial expansion less certain if labor and other cost advan-
tages disappear. Thus, the long-term continued growth of the
South may depend on the extent to which regional growth has, or
can, become self-generating. Continued development of regional
markets, continued investment in public and private infrastruc-
ture, and the continued existence of economic benefits to further
industrial concentration in the region may all become increasing-
ly important determinants of the ability of the South to attract
industry. Many experts, but not all, believe that growth in the
South has become largely self-generating.
The relative attractiveness of the region to people may also
change in the future. The climate, landscapes, and outdoor rec-
reational opportunities of the region are enduring amenities and
likely t'o become more attractive as incomes and leisure opportun-
ities increase. Rising incomes and the growth of southern cities
are likely to continue to improve the socioeconomic and metropol-
itan amenities offered by the South compared to those offered by
other regions of the country. A.t the same time, the growth of
the southern economy, population, and cities may reduce the qual-
ity of some of the amenities traditionally associated with the
South--rural or small town atmosphere, relaxed pace of life, lack
of congestion, and a relatively unpolluted environment. The
cost of living is rising more rapidly in the South than in other
regions, and personal and property taxes may rise in order to ex-
pand and upgrade public services and facilities. Thus, many of
the differences between regions in socioeconomic characteristics
and degree of metropolitanization are likely to gradually disap-
pear, with such natural characteristics as climate, landscape,
and recreational opportunities becoming more important in the
determination of relative desirability of regions.
In sum, the South is growing rapidly today and is projected
to continue to do so for some time. This growth will produce
change which can affect those characteristics of the regional
system responsible for growth. Both the magnitude of recent and
foreseeable economic and population changes, and the probability
that rapid growth may continue into the long-term future emphasize
the potential for environmental changes in the South. The next
two chapters outline current and projected future population, eco-
nomic, and industrial changes in the South which may affect the
southern environment.
2-42
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CHAPTER 3
ECONOMIC AND POPULATION CHANGES
HIGHLIGHTS
Status and Trends
1. By 1980, the South had become the most populous region of
the United States with a population of just under 64 mil-
lion. This was 2 million more than the next most populous
region, the Northeast. The South continues to be the most
rapidly growing region in the nation.
2. Between 1980 and 2010, the South is expected to add about
20 million new residents, an increase of 31 percent. This
would represent 42 percent of the total U.S. population
increase.
3. The South is experiencing high growth rates in both metro-
politan and nonmetropolltan areas. This contrasts with
the rest of the country where growth rates in metropolitan
areas are well below nonmetropolitan growth rates.
4. Much of this population growth is a result of a turn-
around in the direction of migration. Between 1960 and
1970, all but four southern states experienced net out-
migration. But between 1970 and 1979, all southern
states experienced net inmigration. More than 4 million
more people moved to the South than away. This repre-
sents half of the total population increase of the South.
5. Manufacturing employment is expected to grow 59 percent
in the South from 1978 to 2010. By 2010, the South is
expected to have 32 percent of all U.S. manufacturing
employment.
6. Because of employment, population, and wage rate changes,
per capita incomes in the South are expected to continue
to improve. In 1978, the average per capita income in
the South was 88 percent of the U.S. average. By 2010,
southern per capita income is expected to increase by 122
percent and to reach 95 percent of the U.S. average.
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Geographic Areas
7. Florida and Texas are the most rapidly growing states.
Between 1980 and 2010, each is expected to grow by over
40 percent; together they will receive 50 percent of the
southern population increase.
8. The growth of manufacturing employment is expected to be
rapid in all southern states between 1978 and 2010, but
growth rates in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas
will be particularly rapid—over 80 percent. Almost one-
third of all new southern manufacturing jobs wil be added
in Texas.
9. In 1978, per capita incomes approached U.S. averages only
in Florida and Texas. Mississippi and Arkansas were
falling below 80 percent of the U.S. average. By 2010,
Kentucky and Louisiana are expected to also reach at
least 97 percent of the U.S. value, and Mississippi and
Arkansas are expected to reach 84 percent.
Key Problems and Issues
10. The projected improvements in per capita incomes provide
strong incentives for southern states to continue to
encourage economic growth. In addition, population and
economic growth will bring other benefits:
• Decline in the number of dying communities;
• Decrease in the need for southerners, especially
young people, to migrate away from their homes;
• Improved shopping, professional and other ser-
vices, and recreational and cultural opportun-
ities as markets for these activities grow; and
• Increased ability of state and local governments
to invest in and improve public services and
facilities.
11. However, rapidly expanding populations, particularly urban
populations, may bring significant environmental problems:
• Increased air pollution from an increase in the
usage of automobiles and trucks;
• Need for an increased capacity to supply clean,
safe water to households, businesses, and
industry;
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• Adverse impacts on water quality because of
urban runoff and effluent discharge;
• Increased need for sewage treatment facilities;
• Need for solid waste disposal sites;
• Urban sprawl and agricultural and forest land
conversion; and
• An increased need for outdoor recreation sites.
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CHAPTER 3
ECONOMIC AND POPULATION CHANGES
3.1 INTRODUCTION
The economic and demographic forces discussed in the previous
chapter will continue to create substantial changes in the South.
The South is projected to add about 20 million people to its pop-
ulation over the next 30 years, representing 42 percent of the
total national increase. Migration, particularly from the North-
east and Northcentral regions, is expected to be the source of
about a third of this growth.
The growth of employment opportunities in the South is pro-
jected to parallel population growth. Manufacturing employment,
which is primarily responsible for employment in other sectors,
is projected to grow by 60 percent over the next 30 years in the
Sunbelt. By 2010, the South will have over 30 percent of all
U.S. manufacturing jobs.
The growth of employment opportunities, particularly jobs in
higher wage industries, is projected to increase the economic
well-being of southerners. Per capita incomes have traditionally
lagged behind national averages. However, they are expected to
increase about 100 percent by 2010 and reach 95 percent of the
U.S. average.
Chapters 3 and 4 describe these changes in further detail.
Chapter 3 examines historical and projected changes in popula-
tion, employment, and income. The substantial benefits of these
changes as well as the potential environmental problems created
by population growth and urbanization are also discussed. Chap-
ter 4 examines industrial trends in order to identify driving
forces which create environmental problems.
3.2 ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS
The projections of population, employment, and income used in
this study are the Regional Economic Projections developed by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Division/ in
the United States Department of Commerce. The BEA data provide
(1) historical and projected estimates of population in five age
3-1
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groups by sex, and (2) estimates of employment and earnings in 57
Standard Industrial Code (SIC) groups. The historical series
consists of the years 1969, 1973, and 1978; the projected series
consists of the years 1985, 1990, 2000, and 2010. Appendix 3A
describes the methodology used for these projections. The rest
of this section evaluates the usefulness of these projections for
the purposes of this study.
The BEA projections are based on several assumptions impor-
tant to understanding their strengths and weaknesses. First, the
projections are based on an extension of past trends, with the
historical rate of change in the trend line dampened in the fu-
ture. This means that the projections assume that factors affect-
ing population and economic relationships in the past will con-
tinue to affect them in the future, but that the rate of change
decelerates. The danger in such an assumption is that it fails
to predict -significant changes in trends. For example, the BEA
projections made in 1974 failed to predict the acceleration of
growth in the early 1970's in several southern states; thus, by
the mid-1970's many of the states had already reached their 1980
projection and some had surpassed their 1990 projection.
Secondly, these projections assume that no significant policy
changes will occur. Policies do affect population and economic
change. For example, certain tax, spending, and labor policies
of the federal government, states, and localities have encouraged
southern growth, and environmental policies have the potential to
affect economic growth. And policies do change, sometimes in
response to projections such as these. To the extent that policy
changes, growth could be affected in ways not anticipated in these
projections. However, one of the chief purposes of the BEA pro-
jections is to provide a baseline forecast assuming no policy
changes so that the effects of proposed new policies can be esti-
mated.
A third assumption made by the BEA is that resources will
be made available for development as needed. If resource con-
straints appear, the projections will overstate expected growth.
As an example of possible problems caused by this assumption, the
Sierra Club has voiced the concern that in certain instances the
BEA projections have been used to establish a need for water proj-
ects when in fact the projected economic and demographic changes
are reasonable projections only if the water projects exist
(Kunofsky, 1979, p. 5).
Although our analyses are limited by these assumptions, in
general these projections are well suited to the purposes of this
report. Given the difficulties of any projection methodology,
these assumptions are reasonable. They are made with an opera-
tional methodology rather than a methodology still in developmen-
tal stages. Although they may not predict the future, they de-
scribe a future with a high probability. They are consistent,
3-2
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detailed, and widely available. Finally, they are commonly ac-
cepted throughout the federal government as a valuable basis for
future planning.
3.3 POPULATION
3.3.1 Growth of the South
The population of the South is growing rapidly (Table 3-1).
It grew 22 percent from 1970 to 1980, a period over which the
nation as a whole grew only 11 percent. The Northeastern and
Northcentral regions grew at the even slower rate of about 4 per-
cent each.l Only the West grew at a slightly more rapid rate of
23 percent.
This pattern of relative regional growth rates is expected to
continue into the future, although annual growth rates are ex-
pected to decline slightly. Between 1980 and 2010, the South is
expected to grow more rapidly (31 percent) than any region but
the West (36 percent). Growth rates in the Northeast and North-
central regions (7 percent and 15 percent respectively) are pro-
jected to be less than half of the rates in the South and West.
In absolute terms, the South is growing more rapidly than any
other region. Over the period 1970 to 1980, the South added 11.7
million people—1.4 times more people than the West, 5 times more
people than the Northcentral Region and almost 10 times more peo-
ple than the Northeast. The increase in the South represents 50
percent of total U.S. population growth during this time. From
1980 to 2010, the South is expected to add just over 20 million
new residents, 42 percent of the total national increase and 30
percent more than the West, the region projected to have the next
largest population increase. Although Region 6 is growing faster
than Region 4, the absolute growth in Region 4 is larger because
of its larger initial base.
As a result of these trends, the South has moved in rank from
the third largest of the four regions in 1960 to the largest re-
gion in 1980 (Figure 3-1). Current rankings are expected to con-
tinue until the year 2010, with the margin between the South and
the next most populous region, the Northeast, increasing. By
2010, 30 percent of the total U.S. population is expected to
reside in the South.
IA map showing which states are in each region can be found
in Appendix 3A.
3-3
-------
TABLE 3-1: REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION 1960-2000
(in thousands)
Absolute Percent
Change Change
Regiona 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970-1980
Region 4 27,884 31,856 38,860 42,307 46,636 50,621 7,004 22
Region 6 17,902 20,336 25,043 27,563 30,639 33,288 4,707 23
South 45,786 52,192 63,903 69,870 77,275 83,909 11,711 22
Northeast 54,815 60,660 61,882 63,667 64,929 66,151 1,222 4
OJ
^ North-
central 50,306 55,289 57,508 61,047 63,707 65,904 2,219 4
West 28,415 35,071 43,209 48,395 53,935 58,838 8,138 23
Total
U.S. 179,323 203,212 226,505 232,979 259,846 274,803 23,293 11
Absolute Percent
Change Change
1980-2010
11,761 30
8,245 33
20,006 31
4,270 7
8,396 15
15,629 36
48,298 21
Source: Compiled from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census. 1980, pp. 10-11; U.S., Dept. of
Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1981; and U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
aThe South consists of Federal Regions 4 and 6, the Northeast of Federal Regions 1, 2, and 3, the
Northcentral Region of Federal Regions 5 and 7, and the West of Federal Regions 8, 9, 10.
See Appendix 3B for included states.
-------
40 H
U.
O
20-
10-
• South
Northeast
Northcentral
w "* West
I960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Figure 3-1: Regional Population as a Percentage of the U.S. Total
Source: Table 3-1.
3.3.2 Growth Within The South
Individual states within the South are growing at widely
varying rates, but from 1970 to 1980 all grew more rapidly than
the United States average of 11 percent (Table 3-2 and Figure
3-2). Florida was the most rapidly growing state with a growth
rate of more than three times the national average, followed by
Texas and New Mexico.
In most southern states, growth rates from 1980 to 2010 are
projected to continue to be more rapid than the national average
but less strongly so than during 1970 to 1980. Florida is pro-
jected to drop to between two and three times the national aver-
age, and Texas and New Mexico are projected to drop to between
one and two times the U.S. average. Only Arkansas and Alabama
are projected to grow at rates below the national average.
3-5
-------
TABLE 3-2:
TOTAL POPULATION BY STATE FOR THE SOUTHERN REGION
(thousands)
-------
v' «"* &
-------
Over the next 30 years, Florida and Texas, the states with
the highest growth rates, are projected to also receive most of
the increase in population; Florida is projected to receive 37
percent of the growth in Region 4 and Texas 69 percent of the
growth in Region 6. Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Lou-
isiana are projected to also receive large increments in popula-
tion. Arkansas and New Mexico are expected to receive the lowest
absolute population increases.
3.3.3 Changes in Trends
These population trends represent significant departures from
previous patterns of population growth. Most of the South had
experienced very slow growth for decades prior to 1970. With
only a few exceptions, all southern states except Florida and
Texas experienced population growth rates lower than the national
average during the three decades 1940-50, 1950-60, and 1960-70.
Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Mississippi actually experienced popula-
tion losses over some decades. However, beginning in the late
1960's population growth rates in the South began to increase
dramatically and to surpass national averages. The average annu-
al growth rates for each Sunbelt state for the two decades 1960-
1970 and 1970-1980 given in Figure 3-3 attest to the magnitude of
the change in growth rates over a short time. All Sunbelt states
but Georgia experienced increases in their growth rates at a time
when the national growth rate dropped. The growth rate increases
for Alabama (0.5 to 1.2 percent), Kentucky (0.6 to 1.2 percent),
Mississippi (0.2 to 1.2 percent), South Carolina (0.8 to 1.6 per-
cent) Arkansas (0.8 to 1.7 percent), New Mexico (0.7 to 3.4 per-
cent) and Texas (1.6 to 2.4 percent) are especially striking.
Two mechanisms contribute to regional population growth—net
migration and natural increase. Net migration is the difference
between the numbers of inmigrants and outmigrants; natural in-
crease is the number of births minus the number of deaths. The
major reason for the change in population growth rates is a rever-
sal of migration patterns in the later years of the 1960's. The
South was a region of net outmigration for decades prior to 1955.
From 1955 to 1970, only significant migration into Florida and
Texas resulted in the South being a region of net inmigration
(Morrison, 1980, p. 75). The magnitude of the turnaround, again
over the space of a few years, is described in Table 3-3. Be-
tween 1960 and 1970, all states but Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma,
and Texas experienced net outmigration, although excesses of
births over deaths prevented any state from actually losing popu-
lation. From 1970 to 1979, all states experienced net inmigra-
tion. In general, inmigration is a more important component in
population change in the states of Region 6, with the exception
of Louisiana, than it is in Region 4, with the exception of Flor-
ida. Inmigration has been predominantly white, taut blacks also
show a small net movement into the South since 1970 (Berry and
3-8
-------
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-------
TABLE 3-3:
NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTHERN REGION
(thousands)
Net Migration
Region/State 1960-1970
1970-1979
Net Migration As
A % of Total
Population Change
(1970-1979)
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North
Carolina
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Total
-233
1,326
51
-153
-267
-94
-149
-45
436
75
1,848
128
91
7
151
103
202
2,605
23
89
24
30
33
29
30
45
55
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
-71
-130
-130
13
146
-172
136
34
94
177
1,045
1,486
53
9
42
53
48
44
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of
Census, 1980, p. 13.
Dahmann, 1980, p. 35). The massive outflow of southern blacks to
northern cities beginning in the 1920's has thus been reversed.
The geographical pattern of migration flows between regions
between 1970 and 1975 demonstrates a clear outmigration from the
northern region of the country into the South and West (Figure
3-4). The South experienced net migration gains from all other
regions of the country in numbers more than double the net gain
to the West—the only other region now experiencing a net migra-
tion gain. The preponderance of net inmigration to the South
came from the Northeast and Northcentral regions; more than 1.5
million more people left these regions for the South than moved
in the opposite direction.
3-10
-------
Note: Figures accompanying arrows indicate numbers of
net interregional migrants (in thousands).
Figure 3-4: Net Interregional Migration, 1970-1975
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1975.
Inmigration is not the only source of southern population
growth, however. The South has traditionally had higher rates of
natural increase. In 1975, the South had a higher birth rate and
a lower death rate than any other region but the West (U.S., Dept,
of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1977, p. 23). As a result, only in
Florida was inmigration responsible for more than half of total
population increase (Table 3-3). Although natural increase will
continue to be an important component of population change, rates
of natural increase are rapidly approaching national averages.
Age adjusted fertility and mortality rates are already similar
to, or lower than, the U.S. average (Poston and Weller, 1981).
3-11
-------
3.3.4 Distribution of Demographic Changes
Descriptions of demographic changes in the entire Southern
Region and individual states, as described above, provide a gen-
eral picture of change in the South. However, they do not pro-
vide enough detail on the geographic variation of change to allow
a comprehensive assessment of both the benefits and costs of pop-
ulation growth.
Growth has different environmental consequences in metropoli-
tan than in nonmetropolitan areas. Rapid growth in metropolitan
areas may exacerbate already existing, and in some cases serious,
environmental problems created by large concentrations of people.
Rapid growth in nonmetropolitan areas may create new environmen-
tal problems in areas where few problems already exist, especial-
ly where communities are ill-equipped to cope with an influx of
population.
One of the characteristics of the 20th century demographic
change prior to 1970 was the dominating pattern of rapid metro-
politan and slow or even negative nonmetropolitan growth. This
pattern held in all major United States regions from 1960 to
1970, with the pattern being more pronounced in the South and the
West (Table 3-4). Since 1970, metropolitan growth rates have de-
creased and nonmetropolitan growth rates have increased in all
regions. However, the reversal occurred to a much greater extent
in the Northeastern, Northcentral, and Western regions than in
the South. Nonmetropolitan growth rates are now greater in these
three regions than metropolitan rates, which have dropped to very
low levels. Nonmetropolitan areas are even receiving more people
in absolute terms in the Northeast and the Northcentral regions;
and metropolitan population in the Northeast actually decreased.
In contrast, the South is experiencing substantial growth in
both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties, with metropolitan
areas having the highest rates and receiving the greatest numbers
of new residents. Suburban counties within metropolitan areas
are receiv-ing the preponderance of metropolitan growth (Berry
and Dahmann, 1980, p. 18). Within the nonmetropolitan class of
counties, most growth in absolute terms is occurring around urban
centers with populations of 2,500 to 25,000, but rural counties
with no urban center of more than 2,500 people are also growing
rapidly (Berry and Dahmann, 1980, p. 18). Growth also tends to
be localized in nonmetropolitan counties surrounding metropolitan
areas.
Not all Sunbelt states follow the pattern typical of the
South as a whole, however. Kentucky, on the border of the north-
ern manufacturing belt, follows the metropolitan outmigration and
nonmetropolitan inmigration typical of the North (Morrill, 1979).
The delta states of Mississippi and Louisiana exhibit the
3-12
-------
TABLE 3-4: METROPOLITAN AND NONMETROPOLITAN POPULATION GROWTH
(thousands)
Percent Change
Metropolitan
Regiona
Region 4
Region 6
f South
oo
Northeast
North Central
West
Total U.S.
1960-
1970
23
21
22
13
13
28
18
1970-
1978
15
17
16
-2
2
13
6
Nonmetropolitan
1960-
1970
4
1
3
7
3
7
4
1970-
1978
11
10
11
10
6
20
10
Absolute Change
Metropolitan
1970-
1978
2,815
2,263
5,087
-811
749
3,741
8,757
Nonmetropolitan
1970-
1978
1,496
653
2,149
1,074
855
1,391
5,469
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980, p. 20.
aThe South consists of Federal Regions 4 and 6; the Northeast of Federal Regions 1,
2, and 3; the Northcentral Region of Federal Regions 5 and 7, and the West of Feder-
al Regions 8, 9, 10. See Appendix 3B for included states.
-------
metropolitan inmigration and nonmetropolitan outraigration typical
of the pre-1970 South.
The preceding analysis, based only on the distinction between
metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, does not indicate the
spatial extent of demographic change. Is growth concentrated in
a few metropolitan and nonmetroplitan sites with outmigration and
population decline still the rule, or is growth widespread
throughout the South? The answer, important to understanding
both the benefits and costs of growth in the South, is that
growth rates do vary, but that the reversal of outmigration to
inmigration and the increase in population growth rates which
began in the South as a whole around 1970 was widespread through-
out the South.
County level data on total population change and net migra-
tion for 1960 to 1970 and 1970 to 1976 support this conclusion
(Figure 3-5). From 1960 to 1970, more than 70 percent of the
counties in all Sunbelt states except Florida, Arkansas, and Ok-
lahoma experienced net outmigration. In spite of high rates of
natural increase, this outmigration was severe enough that 40 to
60 percent of the counties in all states except Florida, North
Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Lousiana actually lost popula-
tion. From 1970 to 1976, the percentages of counties experienc-
ing outmigration and population loss dropped dramatically. Only
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, and Texas exper-
ienced outmigration in more than 40 percent of their counties.
And only in Texas and Louisiana did more than 30 percent of the
counties lose population.
Although these data do indicate growth is widespread through-
out the South, they also indicate that growth rates do vary, with
some areas experiencing outmigration and population loss. Twelve
of the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's) with pop-
ulations over 200,000 grew at a rate greater than 20 percent be-
tween 1970 and 1977 (see Appendix 3B). Five of these are in Tex-
as and five are in Florida. However, one SMSA with over 200,000
population--Columbus, Georgia--lost population, and twelve exper-
ienced net outmigration. An even greater number--particularly
older metropolitan areas such as Atlanta and Savannah, Georgia;
Huntsville and Birmingham, Alabama; Louisville, Kentucky; Mem-
phis, Tennessee; and New Orleans, Louisiana--experienced popula-
tion loss in the central county of the SMSA, a pattern long fa-
miliar in northern cities (SGPB, 1976, p. 21; and Berry and
Dahmann, 1980, p. 18).
Rates vary among nonmetropolitan areas also. Areas receiving
rapid inmigration (rate of inmigration exceeding 5 percent of
1970 population) in the 1970's included eastern Oklahoma and
northwestern Arkansas, central and eastern Texas, the Tennessee
Valley and northeastern Alabama, eastern Kentucky, northern Geor-
gia and western North Carolina, and the Florida Peninsula
3-14
-------
% OF COUNTIES WITH
NET OUTMIGRATION
% OF COUNTIES WITH
NET POPULATION DECREASE
100 80 60 40 20
i i i i i
0 0
AL
FL
GA
20 40 60 80 100
_j i i i i
P
KY
MS
NC
SC
TN
AR
LA
NM
OK
TX
1960-1970
1970-1976
Figure 3-5: Percentage of Counties Experiencing Net Outmigration
Loss or Net Population Loss: 1960-1970 and 1970-1976
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce Bur. Census, 1977, pp. 29-546.
3-15
-------
(Roseman, 1977, p. 20; and Kirschten, 1981). In contrast, certain
areas still are experiencing outmigrations. Although outmigration
in most of these counties between 1970 and 1975 was considerably
diminished over previous decades, it still was severe enough in
some cases to produce population loss. Areas continuing to exper-
ience population loss included many arid, rural counties of western
Texas and Oklahoma; Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi counties
along the Mississippi River; and counties in southcentral Alabama
(Kirschten, 1981, p. 2020).
3.3.5 Growth of the Population of Older Persons
The demographic patterns of the older age group (over 65 years)
are of particular concern because this group is more sensitive to
certain environmental health risks such as air pollution. In the
South, as in the U.S., the population is getting older as a result
of declining birth rates (Table 3-5). The proportion of persons
over 65 is projected to rise during the period from 1970 to 2010
from 10 to 13 percent in the U.S., from 10 to 15 percent in Region
4, and from 9 to 12 percent in Region 6. The increase is espe-
cially pronounced in Florida where the proportion is expected to
reach 24 percent in 2010. These increases are a result of the nat-
ural aging of the southern population and of high migration rates
of the elderly from the Northeast and the Northcentral regions to
the South, especially Florida, Texas, and North Carolina. Al-
though, in general, the over 65 age group is the least mobile of
the U.S. population, the migration rate of the elderly to the South
Atlantic and East Southcentral regions exceeds the migration rate
for other age groups (Plaut, 1981, p. 106). As a result of these
trends, regions 4 and 6 are projected to see absolute increases in
the over 65 age group of 4.5 million and 2.0 million persons,
respectively.
3.3.6 Summary
The South, already the most populous of U.S. regions, is ex-
pected to grow by 31 percent over the next 30 years, receiving
over 40 percent of the U.S. population increase. Florida and Texas
are expected to receive about half of this increase, but all states
except Arkansas and Alabama are projected to grow more rapidly than
the national average. If future trends resemble the trends of the
past few years, growth will be widely distributed throughout the
South. Both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas are growing
rapidly but metropolitan areas are receiving the largest absolute
increases. Only a relatively small percentage of .metropolitan and
nonmetropolitan counties are still experiencing extensive outmigra-
tion and population loss. These are concentrated among older met-
ropolitan central cities and the high plains of Texas and Oklahoma,
rural areas along the Mississippi River, and the old cotton belt of
southern Alabama and Mississippi.
3-16
-------
TABLE 3-5:
INCREASE IN THE PROPORTION AND NUMBER OF PERSONS
OVER 65 IN THE SOUTH
(thousands)
Region/State
Percentage of
Total Population
1970 2010
Increase in
Number of Persons
1970-2000
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
U.S.
10
15
8
11
10
8
7
10
10
12
8
7
12
9
9
10
13
24
12
12
13
14
11
13
15
14
11
12
13
11
12
13
249
2,337
416
198
190
594
269
381
4,520
128
293
127
191
1,220
1,960
14,768
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
These rapid growth rates are a clear break with pre-1970 growth
patterns. Before this time, the South had been a region of slow
population growth and widespread outmigration. Beginning in the
late 1960's, migration into the South accelerated. Between 1970
and 1975 about 1.7 million more persons moved to the South than
moved away, with all states and most counties receiving net inmi-
gration.
3.4 EMPLOYMENT
3.4.1 Total Employment
Trends in employment are very similar to those in population
(Table 3-6). Growth in employment in the South shows strong
3-17
-------
TABLE 3-6: EMPLOYMENT BY REGION AND STATE, 1969-2010
(thousands)
Region/State3
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
CO
1
1-1 Region 6
00 J
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
South
Northeast
Northcentrai
West
Total U.S.
1969
1,304
2,642
1,984
1,213
812
2,288
1,094
1,618
12,956
725
1,346
370
998
4,620
8,059
21,105
26,210
23,424
14,767
85,416
1978
1,584
3,808
2,429
1,484
1,008
2,749
1,338
2,029
16,467
931
1,699
521
1,268
6,235
10,654
27,121
27,970
26,545
19,492
101,928
1990
1,918
4,982
2,912
1,916
1,269
3,312
1,694
2,643
20,644
1,128
2,176
660
1,574
8,140
13,678
34,322
31,644
31,088
24,932
121,986
2000
2,073
5,673
3,171
2,112
1,445
3,620
1,898
2,909
22,900
1,237
2,428
730
1,726
9,252
15,372
38,272
32,338
32,505
27,828
130,943
2010
2,193
6,207
3,374
2,252
1,589
3,837
2,062
3,121
24,634
1,323
2,637
784
1,850
10,146
16,740
41,374
32,905
33,613
30,103
137,995
Absolute
Change
1969-
280
1,166
445
271
196
461
244
411
3,511
206
353
151
270
1,615
2,595
6,016
1,760
3,121
4,725
15,712
Percent
Change
1978
22
44
22
22
24
20
22
25
27
28
26
41
27
35
32
29
7
13
32
18
Absolute Percent
Change Change
1978-2010
609
2,399
945
768
581
1,088
724
1,092
8, 167
392
938
263
582
3,911
6,086
14,253
4,935
7,068
10,611
36,867
38
63
39
52
58
40
54
54
50
42
55
51
46
63
57
53
18
27
54
37
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
aThe South consists of Federal Regions 4 and 6; the Northeast of Federal Regions 1, 2, and 3; the North-
central region of Federal Regions 5 and 7, and the West of federal regions 8, 9, 10. See Appendix 3B
for included states.
-------
contrasts to the pattern for the Northeast, the Northcentral re-
gion, and the nation as a whole. The growth rate of southern
employment from 1969 to 1978 was 29 percent as compared to 18 per-
cent for the nation, 13 percent for the Northcentral region, and 7
percent for the Northeast. Only in the West was the growth rate
(32 percent) more rapid than in the South. The South increased
its total number of jobs by over 6 million, the largest absolute
increase of any region.
As a result, the South has moved from third among the four
regions in 1969 to second in 1978; it is projected to surpass the
Northeast sometime between 1978 and 1985. Employment growth rates
in all Sunbelt states were more rapid than the growth rate for
total U.S. employment. Employment grew most rapidly in Florida,
Texas, and New Mexico; Florida and Texas together received 45 per-
cent of the increase in jobs. Employment grew more slowly in
Region 4, with the exception of Florida, than it did in Region 6.
Most of these trends are expected to continue through 2010.
The South is projected to continue to have the second highest
employment growth rate in the nation and to add the greatest abso-
lute number of jobs (14.3 million). This would represent 39 per-
cent of the increase in U.S. employment. Employment growth in
each of the states within the South is projected to continue to
occur at a rate greater than that for the U.S. Texas and Florida
are projected to grow most rapidly and to add the most jobs. How-
ever, the states of Region 4 are not projected to continue to have
the lowest growth rates; several of these states—Kentucky, Miss-
issippi, South Carolina, and Tennessee--are projected to experi-
ence the more rapid growth typical of the South as a whole.
3.4.2 Manufacturing Employment
The primary impetus for the rapid growth in total employment
in the South is manufacturing employment. As a basic industry
producing for a national market, manufacturing generates service
employment in the other sectors. In the nation, growth of manu-
facturing employment has been slow, only 2 percent between 1969
and 1978 (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980). However, the
shifts in manufacturing employment among regions have been dra-
matic. Between 1969 and 1978, manufacturing employment in the
Northeast declined by 12 percent, while in the South it increased
by 16 percent.
The trends are expected to continue. Over the next 30 years,
manufacturing employment in the South is expected to increase by
59 percent compared to a 26 percent increase for the U.S. and a 5
percent decrease for the Northeast (Table 3-7). The South is
projected to move from third in manufacturing in 1978 to first
in 2010, with 32 percent of all U.S. manufacturing employment.
3-19
-------
TABLE 3-7:
CHANGE IN MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT, 1978-2010
(thousands)
Region/Statea
Employment
1978 2010
Absolute Percent
Change Change
1978-2010
Region 4
Alabama 375 521 146 39
Florida 431 699 268 62
Georgia 523 667 144 28
Kentucky 298 442 144 48
Mississippi 241 428 187 78
North Carolina 814 1,091 277 34
South Carolina 395 588 193 49
Tennessee 532 799 267 50
Total 3,609 5,235 1,626 45
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
South
Northeast
Northcentral
West
Total U.S.
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
aThe South consists of Federal Regions 4 and 6; the Northeast
of Federal Regions 1, 2, and 3; the Northcentral Region of fed-
eral regions 5 and 7, and the west of federal regions 8, 9, 10.
See Appendix 3B for included states.
Clearly the traditional stereotypes of industrial Northeast and
rural South do not reflect current and future realities.
Within the South, manufacturing employment in 1978 was concen-
trated in Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia. Louisi-
ana, Oklahoma, and New Mexico had the smallest numbers of manufac-
turing employees. Manufacturing employment in all states is
222
213
35
177
978
1,624
5,233
6,507
6,582
3,024
20,896
312
422
64
334
1,932
3,065
8,300
5,801
7,478
4,701
26,280
90
209
29
157
954
1,441
3,067
-256
896
1,677
5,381
41
98
83
89
98
89
59
-4
14
56
26
3-20
-------
projected to increase more rapidly than the U.S. average, particu-
larly in Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas, with in-
creases of more than 80 percent. The slowest growth rates are
projected to be found in the already highly industrialized states
of North Carolina and Georgia. Absolute increases will be highest
in Texas, North Carolina, and Tennessee—states with large concen-
trations of manufacturing employment in 1978—plus Florida and
Louisiana. These five states are projected to receive over one-
third of the total increase in U.S. manufacturing employment with
Texas receiving almost 20 percent.
3.4.3 Distribution of Employment Change
As with population change, employment change has not been uni-
formly distributed. From 1970 to 1977, 81 percent of the increase
in southern manufacturing employment occurred in nonmetropolitan
areas (Hansen, forthcoming). In contrast, employment in service
industries is more likely to occur in metropolitan areas than is
manufacturing employment. Growth in both total employment and
manufacturing employment is more rapid in certain geographical
areas of the South than in other areas (Figure 3-6). Total em-
ployment is growing very rapidly along the Gulf and Atlantic
coastlines with interior clusters of rapid growth in eastern
Tennessee and Kentucky, northern Georgia, northwestern Arkansas
and eastern Oklahoma, and the Albuquerque, New Mexico area.
Total employment is growing slowly (less than 15 percent) in
only a few scattered areas—southwestern Oklahoma and adjoining
counties of Texas and interior areas of Alabama, Georgia, and the
Carolinas. Growth in manufacturing employment shows slightly
different patterns. The eastern half of the study area no longer
contains areas with rapid (greater than 30 percent) growth rates,
with the exception of the southern tip of Florida; in fact, many
counties across Alabama, Georgia, and the western Carolinas with
large existing concentrations of manufacturing experienced rela-
tively slow growth rates in manufacturing employment. However,
large areas of New Mexico, Oklahoma and southwestern Texas with
low levels of existing manufacturing experienced growth rates in
manufacturing employment significantly higher than growth rates
in total employment.
3.4.4 Employment to Population Ratio
Change in the employment to population ratio is important to
changes in individual economic well-being within a region. The
South has been a region of low employment to population ratios.
Only the relatively industrialized states of North Carolina,
South Carolina, Georgia, and Texas had employment to population
ratios in 1978 higher than those for the U.S. (Table 3-8). The
ratio, expressed as a percentage of the value for the entire U.S.,
3-21
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30% OR MORE
15.0 -29.9%
LESS THAN 15.0<
MORE
15.0 - 29.9%
LESS THAN 15.0%
Figure 3-6:
Rate of Change in Total Employment (top) and
Manufacturing Employment (bottom) by BEA
Economic Region, 1969-1978.
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
3-22
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TABLE 3-8: INDEX OF EMPLOYMENT/POPULATION, 1969-2010
Region/State3
Index of Employment/Population*3
1969 1978 2010
(U.S. = 100)
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
91
94
102
92
87
107
102
96
96
93
96
103
93
91
106
103
99
98
99
87
100
99
99
103
104
100
98
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
South
Northeast
Northcentral
West
Source: Calculated
1980.
90
88
86
94
98
91
94
103
101
103
from U.S.,
91
92
93
96
103
95
97
100
101
108
Dept. of
98
100
96
98
101
98
98
100
101
102
Commerce, BEA,
aThe South consists of Federal Regions 4 and 6; the
Northeast of Federal Regions 1, 2, and 3; the North-
central Region of Federal Regions 5 and 7, and the West
of Federal Regions 8, 9, 10. See Appendix 3B for in-
cluded states.
employment to population ratio in each state is ex-
pressed as a percentage of the ratio for the U.S. as a
whole.
3-23
-------
has been especially low in the rural delta states of Arkansas (91
percent), Louisiana (92 percent), and Mississippi (91 percent).
Unemployment and labor force participation rate statistics
shed some light on these values (Table 3-9). The labor force par-
ticipation rate is the percentage of the total adult population
that is employed plus the percentage that desires and is actively
searching for employment. The unemployment rate is the percentage
of those in the labor force that do not have jobs; those who want
a job but are not actively searching are not included among the
unemployed. Unemployment statistics indicate high unemployment is
not a major cause of these low employment to population ratios;
only Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, and New Mexico had average unem-
ployment rates greater than the national average of 7.0 percent in
the late 1970's (Table 3-9). Rather, one of the major explana-
tions is labor force participation rates which are below the U.S.
average of 63.7 percent in all states but Georgia (64.2 percent),
the Carolinas (66.5 and 63.8 percent), and Texas (65.7 percent).
These are the states with high employment to population ratios.
Alabama, Florida, Arkansas, and Louisiana had especially low
rates, below 60 percent. It is unclear from available data
whether these low labor force participation rates are a result of
a large number of people who genuinely do not want employment or
a large number of discouraged job seekers who have stopped looking
for employment. Higher labor force participation rates in the
most highly industrialized states do suggest a connection between
employment opportunities and probability of participation in the
labor force.
With more rapid growth in employment than in population over
the next 30 years, employment to population ratios in the South
are expected to converge on the U.S. average (Table 3-8). Only
Florida and New Mexico are not expected to reach 98 percent of
the U.S. average; the continued low index for Florida is a func-
tion of that state's high proportion of retirees.
3.4.5 Summary
Employment growth is a major determinant of population growth.
Patterns of employment growth presented in this section are simi-
lar to those presented in the previous section on population
growth. Employment in the South is growing more rapidly in abso-
lute terms than any other region and at a rate second only to that
for the West. Employment growth is projected to continue to be
concentrated in Florida and Texas, although employment growth
rates in all Sunbelt states are projected to be more rapid than
for the U.S. Because employment is projected to increase slightly
more rapidly than population, employment to population ratios are
projected to draw near to U.S. averages throughout most of the
South.
3-24
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TABLE 3-9: UNEMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES
Region/State
Averagea
Unemployment
Rate
1975-1979
Labor Force
Participation
Rate
1979
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total U.S.
7.1
8.1
6.9
5.7
7.0
6.0
6.7
6.4
7.1
7.0
7.9
5.0
5.1
7.0
59.6
56.8
64.2
61.3
58.6
66.5
63.8
61.2
59.9
59.6
62.2
60.6
65.7
63.7
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census,
1980.
aCalculated by averaging the annual unemployment rates for each of
the five years.
Growth in manufacturing employment provides the major thrust
for overall employment growth in the South. At a time when manu-
facturing employment is growing slowly in the U.S. and even de-
clining in the Northeast, manufacturing employment is projected to
grow by 59 percent in the South between 1978 and 2010. This
growth represents three out of every five new U.S. manufacturing
jobs. Absolute increases in both total employment and manufactur-
ing employment will be largest in Florida, Georgia, North Caro-
lina, Tennessee, and Texas—states with the largest existing
shares of both total and manufacturing employment. Only Florida
and Texas of the above five states are projected to have high
growth rates in both total employment and manufacturing employ-
ment. In addition, Mississippi, Louisiana, New Mexico, and
3-25
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Oklahoma are projected to experience especially rapid growth rates
of manufacturing employment.
3.5 INCOME
3.5.1 Per Capita Income
For decades, the South has been a relatively impoverished re-
gion. Although southerners have participated in national in-
creases in real per capita income, per capita incomes in the
South are significantly below the U.S. average (Table 3-10). In
1978, the average per capita income for the South was 88 percent
of the U.S. average. Among individual states, only Florida and
Texas were near the U.S. average, and Mississippi, and Arkansas,
fell below 80 percent of the U.S. average. Even when per capita
income figures are adjusted for well-known cost of living differ-
entials, the South still lags (Jusenius and Ledebur, 1977,
pp. 140-41). These income differentials have provided strong
incentives for southern communities and states to encourage eco-
nomic growth.
Improvements in per capita income in all states within the
South are expected to continue. Per capita income in noninflated
1972 dollars in the South is expected to increase from 4,630 dol-
lars in 1978 to 10,494 dollars in 2010, an increase in purchasing
power of over 100 percent. Relative to projected increases in the
U.S. as a whole, this increase is not so impressive. Per capita
income in the South as a whole is projected to increase from 88 to
95 percent of the U.S. average. Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, and
Texas are the only states projected to be within three percentage
points of the U.S. average. Many states are projected to lag; per
capita incomes in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Arkansas are
expected to still be below 90 percent of the U.S. average.
3.5.2 Wage Rates
Per capita income increases are produced by the combination of
increases in the employment to population ratio, discussed under
employment, and increases in wage rates. The South has had the
lowest wage rates in the country as well as low employment to pop-
ulation ratios; earnings per employee,-'- a measure of wage rates,
were only 90 percent of the U.S. average in 1969 (Table 3-11).
Only Kentucky, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Texas had ratios above
90 percent of the U.S. average. Ratios in North Carolina, South
Carolina, and Arkansas were 85 percent or less of the U.S. figures
l-The measure is calculated by dividing total labor and propri-
etors income by total employment.
3-26
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TABLE 3-10:
PER CAPITA INCOME
(thousands)
Region/State9
Per Capita Income
(1972 dollars)
1969
1978
2010
Percent of U.S.
Per Capita Income
1969 1978 2010
Region 4
Alabama 3,046 4,217 10,204
Florida 3,883 5,052 10,856
Georgia 3,499 4,519 10,203
Kentucky 3,240 4,403 10,741
Mississippi 2,630 3,721 9,287
North Carolina 3,383 4,426 10,108
South Carolina 3,105 4,195 9,817
Tennessee 3,250 4,374 9,924
Total 3,367 4,489 10,322
73
94
84
78
63
82
75
78
81
81
97
86
84
71
85
80
84
86
93
98
93
97
84
92
89
90
94
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
South
Northeast
Northcentral
West
Total U.S.
2,903
3,208
3,187
3,470
3,700
3,503
3,419
4,526
4,267
4,424
4,154
4,081
4,492
4,399
4,751
5,164
4,848
4,630
5,389
5,376
5,681
5,233
9,481
10,700
10,028
10,445
11,065
10,754
10,494
11,169
11,334
11,332
11,037
70
77
77
84
89
84
82
109
103
106
100
78
86
84
91
99
93
88
103
103
109
100
86
97
91
95
100
97
95
101
103
103
100
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
aThe South consists of Federal Regions 4 and 6; the Northeast of
Federal Regions 1, 2, and 3; the Northcentral Region of Federal
Regions 5 and 7, and the West of Federal Regions 8, 9, 10. See
Appendix 3B for included states.
3-27
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TABLE 3-11:
EARNINGS PER EMPLOYEE
(thousands)
Region/State3
Earnings per Employee
(1972 dollars)
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
South
Northeast
North central
West
Total U.S.
1969
1978
2010
7,772
7,660
7,675
7,939
6,879
7,342
6,998
7,557
7,484
16,224
15,161
15,678
16,881
14,459
15,210
14,570
15,299
15,416
6,671
7,361
6,728
6,525
5,979
6,290
6,197
6,620
6,647
6,166
6,671
6,511
6,858
7,215
6,952
6,764
8,353
8,268
8,452
7,954 8,687 17,119
7,399
8,250
8,184
7,688
8,485
8,243
7,781
8,928
9,082
9,051
14,550
17,407
15,613
15,703
17,135
16,740
15,950
17,775
17,800
17,271
1969
Percent of U.S.
(average)
1978 2010
84
93
85
82
75
79
78
83
84
78
84
82
86
91
87
85
105
104
106
100
89
88
88
91
79
85
81
87
86
85
95
94
89
98
95
90
103
105
104
100
95
94
92
99
84
89
85
89
90
85
102
91
92
100
98
93
104
104
101
100
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
aThe South consists of Federal Regions 4 and 6; the Northeast of
Federal Regions 1, 2, and 3; the Northcentral Region of Federal
Regions 5 and 7, and the West of Federal Regions 8, 9, 10. See
Appendix 3B for included states.
3-28
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One of the reasons for these low values is the fact that the South
has had a disproportionate share of employment in the low wage
lumber, furniture, textile, apparel, and leather goods industries
(U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980, pp. 413-15). The
relatively low per capita incomes in the Carolinas despite high
employment to population ratios can be explained by the concentra-
tions in these states of these low wage industries.
The projections indicate wages will increase substantially.
Earnings per employee in the South are expected to rise from 7,781
dollars in 1978 to 15,950 dollars in 2010 in real 1972 dollars, an
increase of over 100 percent. Again, although the absolute in-
crease is large, it represents an increase from 90 to only 93 per-
cent of the U.S. average; the South is projected to continue to
lag behind other regions. Although all southern states are pro-
jected to see great improvements in absolute earnings per em-
ployee, only Kentucky, Louisiana, and Texas are expected to reach
or come close to the U.S. average. Mississippi, the Carolinas,
Tennessee, and Arkansas are projected to continue to fall below 90
percent of the U.S. value.
These changes in earnings per employee are a function of both
improvements in productivity and the high rate of growth in the
South of the relatively high wage mining, primary metal, transpor-
tation equipment, nonelectrical machinery, paper, chemicals, and
petroleum refining industries. Between 1970 and 1976, 42 percent
of new manufacturing jobs were in these high wage industries where
as only 25 percent were in the low wage sectors mentioned previ-
ously (Hansen, forthcoming). The variations between individual
southern states in the earnings per employee ratio are largely a
function of employment patterns in high and low wage industries.
3.5.3 Geographical Distribution of Per Capita Income Change
The geographical distribution of gains in per capita income
is an important element in the evaluation of the benefits of eco-
nomic growth in the South. Per capita income traditionally has
been significantly higher in metropolitan areas than in nonmetro-
politan areas. This trend continues. However, significant gains
in per capita income have been extremely widespread, indicating
the benefits of growth are reaching most areas within the Sunbelt
(Table 3-12). Most counties receiving the highest percentage
gains are often nonmetropolitan counties, although metropolitan
areas tend to receive larger absolute gains, counties within each
of the states have experienced growth rates in per capita income
from 1969 to 1974 greater than the national average of 7.6 per-
cent. Gains are particularly widespread in Region 4. More than
86 percent of the counties in all Region 4 states experienced per
capita income growth rates of more than 8 percent. More than 20
percent of the counties in Mississippi, North Carolina, and South
Carolina experienced growth rates greater than 10 percent.
3-29
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TABLE 3-12:
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGE IN
PER CAPITA INCOME, 1969-1974
Region/State
Annual Average Percent Change In
Per Capita Income 1969-1974
<7 7-8 8-10 >10
(U.S. = 7.6)
(Percentage of counties)
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
6
1
11
14
0
6
2
5
82
81
73
68
68
64
76
85
12
17
15
18
32
30
22
9
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Source: Calculated from U.S.,
1977.
1
0
28
5
11
Dept.
9
17
31
34
21
of Commerce,
68
73
38
58
58
Bur.
22
9
3
3
10
of Census,
Within Region 6, Arkansas and Louisiana show patterns similar
to the states of Region 4. However, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and
Texas show a higher percentage of counties with lower growth
rates; approximately 20 percent or more of the counties in these
three states experienced per capita income growth rates below the
national average of 7.6 percent.
3.5.4 Income Distribution
Income distribution, as well as average per capita income, is
an important determinant of economic well being. The South has
traditionally had the highest proportion of poor people of any
region (Table 3-13). In 1969, over 20 percent of individuals in
the South were below the poverty level; this percentage did not
exceed 12 in any other region. In 1975 the South continued to
have a higher percentage of its population below the poverty
level. However, this percentage had decreased significantly more
3-30
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TABLE 3-13: PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION BELOW POVERTY LEVEL
Percentage of Population Below Poverty Level^>
Region** 1969 1975
Region 4 22 17
Region 6 21 17
South 21 17
Northeast 11 9
North Central 11 9
West 12 10
Total U.S. 14 11
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce Bur. of Census,
1980, p. 467.
aThe South consists of federal regions 4 and 6; the Northeast of
federal regions 1, 2, and 3; the Northcentral Region of federal
regions 5 and 7, and the West of federal regions 8, 9, 10. See
Appendix 3B for included states.
^"Adjusted for inflation.
in the South than in any other region, from 21 to 17 percent in
the South as opposed to 14 to 11 percent in the entire U.S.
These decreases in the percentage of poor people are not just a
result of a large inmigration of the nonpoor. All states except
Georgia, Florida, and New Mexico showed significant decreases in
the absolute numbers of poor people as well as decreases in the
proportion of poor in the population (U.S., Dept. of Commerce,
Bur. of Census, 1980, p. 467). Fifty percent of the national de-
crease of 3.1 million in the number of individuals below the pov-
erty level occurred in the South. This indicates that although
poverty is still widespread in the South, economic gains in the
region as a whole are reaching some of the poor.
3.5.5 Summary
Increases in the employment to population ratio and in wage
rates over the next 30 years are projected to continue to in-
crease the economic well being in the South, a region with a long
history of below average incomes. Employment to population
3-31
-------
ratios are projected to rise to near the national average through-
out most of the South. Wage ratios are projected to double in
constant dollars and rise from 90 to 93 percent of the U.S. aver-
age. As a result, per capita incomes are projected to more than
double and to rise to 95 percent of the U.S. average. The South
as a whole and certain states in particular are projected to con-
tinue to lag behind U.S. averages, but the absolute and relative
gains are projected to be significant. Although the South con-
tinues to have the highest proportion of poor people of any re-
gion, income gains are reaching the poor; the number of poor
people is declining more rapidly in the South than in any other
region.
These income increases are expected to be widely distributed
throughout the South. Per capita incomes in all Sunbelt states
and in most of the counties within each of the states are growing
more rapidly than the U.S. average. Although metropolitan areas
have the highest incomes at present, incomes in many nonmetropol-
itan areas are growing as fast as or faster than in metropolitan
areas.
3.6 BENEFITS OF GROWTH
The demographic and economic changes described in previous
sections are expected to continue to bring significant benefits
to the Sunbelt. Population and income gains are not concentrated
in a few locations, but extend to both metropolitan and nonmetro-
politan areas throughout the South.
In the past, the South, particularly the nonmetropolitan
South, has been a region of low per capita incomes and high pov-
erty. Limited job opportunities have made it necessary for many
to migrate to find jobs, particularly young adults. These con-
ditions are changing rapidly. Job opportunities and incomes are
increasing more rapidly than the national average, and poverty is
decreasing. Change is, if anything, more rapid in nonmetropoli-
tan than in metropolitan areas. The increase in individual eco-
nomic well-being and the decrease in the need to migrate away
from homes in nonmetropolitan areas and the South Ln general are
highly valued benefits to many southerners.
Large areas of the South, and again nonmetropolitan areas in
particular, have experienced significant outmigration and popula-
tion loss. This has led in many areas of the South to a land-
scape of dying towns, deteriorating business districts and pub-
lic facilities, and fiscal stringency for many local governments.
These trends have been widely reversed with significant bene-
fits for many localities. Many once-declining towns and cities
are growing; perceptions of a positive future without the need
3-32
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for migration are becoming generalized in these localities. An
expanding market encourages investment in business and cultural
facilities and services. Such investment brings an expanded
range, wider variety, and often higher quality of shopping, pro-
fessional and other services, and recreational and cultural oppor-
tunities .
The South traditionally has also had lower quality public ser-
vices and facilities. In the past, measures of per capita spend-
ing on public services generally have shown southern cities to be
well below the national average (Liu, 1974). Although some of the
regional differences are attributable to other variables such as
differences in cultural perspectives towards public functions and
responsibilities, some differences are clearly attributable to the
fiscal health of localities (Lupsha and Siembieda, 1977). Al-
though providing public facilities and services for an expanding
population is expensive, higher household incomes and an expanding
tax base in many southern communities may permit improvements in
public services and facilities, if desired.
Improved community fiscal well-being and improved public ser-
vices and facilities can also improve environmental quality. The
paving of streets and roads reduces airborne particulates and sed-
imentation of streams. Improved sewage and wastewater collection
and treatment improves water quality. Land use planning and the
public acquisition of land or development rights for parks, open
spaces, or natural areas can reduce land use conflicts.
3.7 ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS CREATED BY POPULATION GROWTH
Economic and population growth brings substantial benefits,
but it also may bring environmental problems, both because it in-
creases the potential output of wastes and because it increases
the number of people affected by those wastes. This section de-
scribes potential environmental problems created by population
growth and general urbanization in the Sunbelt. Volume II de-
scribes potential environmental problems associated with the
growth of individual industries rather than population itself,
and Volume III discusses environmental problems in more detail.
Environmental problems created by population growth will not
be uniformly distributed, because growth is not evenly distributed
and the capacity of the environment to absorb growth varies. Fur-
ther, the existence of potential problems does not imply the need
to restrict growth. Some problems can be successfully solved and
other problems may be an acceptable price to pay for the benefits
of growth.
3-33
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3.7.1 Vehicular Air Emissions
As the population increases in an area, the number of automo-
biles and trucks and the number of vehicle miles travelled also
increase. This is particularly true in southern cities where
most growth has occurred in the sprawled manner characteristic of
the 20th century and where mass transportation is not common.
Such growth creates the potential for continued air quality
problems in many southern communities, many of which already are
experiencing air quality problems (see Chapter 11 on Air Quality
for extended discussion). In 1977, automobiles and trucks con-
tributed 6 percent of the airborne particulates, 75 percent of
the carbon monoxide, 34 percent of the hydrocarbons, and 30 per-
cent of the nitrogen oxides emitted by all sources in the U.S.
(U.S., NCAQ, 1981, p. 192). Such emissions are an important fac-
tor in the air quality of many southern counties, of which 50
percent experienced violations of national carbon monoxide stan-
dards and 76 percent experienced violations of photochemical oxi-
dant standards in 1978 (U.S., CEQ, 1980). Emissions per vehicle
mile have decreased since governmental regulation of emissions
began in 1968; if statutory requirements in the 1977 Clean Air
Act Amendments are met, hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and nitro-
gen oxide emissions per vehicle mile will continue to decrease to
less than 50 percent of current levels by 1990 (U.S., NCAQ, 1981,
p. 198).
However, the rapid growth of many Sunbelt communities will
more than offset these projected emissions declines. Further,
there is some question whether these standards will be met for
new cars, and in-use automobiles have consistently shown emis-
sions levels greater than standards, particularly for hydrocar-
bons and carbon monoxide (U.S., NCAQ, 1981, p. 199). As a re-
sult, emission of air pollutants by motor vehicles will remain
a problem for many Sunbelt counties for the foreseeable future.
3.7.2 Water Quantity and Quality Problems
Larger urban populations will require expanded capacity to
withdraw and/or treat water to supply households, businesses, and
industry with clean, safe water. A typical U.S. family of four
uses about 350 gallons of water a day for inhouse and yard uses
(U.S. Water Resources Council, 1978, pt. 3, p. 20). At this rate,
even small population increments can create a need for expanded
water supply capacity. Increase in the need for municipal water
withdrawals at the same time that industry is increasing its with-
drawals may result in localized or generalized water shortages in
some areas of the Sunbelt.
At least two-thirds of the water used by a typical family
leaves the house in the form of sewage. As a result, increased
3-34
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population either increases sewage outfalls into water bodies or
increases the need for sewage treatment capacity. Increased ur-
ban area also increases urban runoff, which releases more sus-
pended and dissolved substances into water than all natural water-
sheds (U.S., CEQ, 1979, p. xix). Population growth, therefore,
has the potential to contribute to significant water quality con-
flicts that may limit human use and enjoyment of water resources
and may disturb wildlife habitat or fragile, water-based ecosys-
tems such as coastal wetlands (see chapters 12 and 13 for further
discussion of water quantity and quality problems).
3.7.3 Land-Use Conflicts
An expanding population, particularly an expanding urban pop-
ulation, frequently generates land-use conflicts. These include
conflicts over the conversion of land from rural to urban uses,
over recreational land, and over the uses of environmentally sen-
sitive or aesthetically desirable areas. Land-use conflicts often
become the focus of local concern over environmental issues be-
cause localities frequently have the power to regulate land use
but not other driving forces responsible for environmental change.
Land-use issues are discussed at greater length in Chapter 12.
A. Rural/Urban Land Conversion
Over 13 million acres of land in the Sunbelt, or a little less
than 2 percent of the total land area, were converted from rural
to urban or water uses between 1967 and 1977 (USDA and CEQ, 1981).
Where conversion occurs on valuable agricultural or forest land,
it irreversibly reduces the agricultural land base and potential
U.S. agricultural and forest productivity in the face of mounting
U.S. and world demands for food, feed, and fiber. Almost 75 per-
cent of the 13 million acres converted in the Sunbelt was poten-
tial cropland and at least 30 percent was prime cropland.
Another set of environmental concerns related to land conver-
sion is the way in which land is converted to urban uses. Urban
residents in many sections of the country are increasingly con-
cerned about the quality of urban environments created by the con-
version process (Reilly, 1973). They are concerned about the loss
of open space, urban sprawl and suburban monotony, traffic conges-
tion, and the cost of public services, among other issues.
B. Recreational Lands
A large percentage of the population takes part in outdoor
recreation activities, including picnicking, swimming, boating,
hiking, riding, camping, fishing, and other water sports. In the
South, the most favored activities are fishing and waterskiing
3-35
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(Knudson, 1980, p. 47). Growing population will increase the
need for developed and undeveloped recreational sites at the same
time that population pressures on the land base are greatest.
The problem is most serious for the very rapidly growing activi-
ties of remote wilderness hiking, riding, and camping that require
relatively pristine sites with low densities of use per acre.
C. Environmentally Sensitive and Aesthetically Desirable Areas
Environmentally sensitive and aesthetically desirable lands--
including open space, natural areas, flood plains, wetlands, and
barrier islands—continue to be subject to intense pressures for
development throughout the Sunbelt. Yet these lands provide val-
uable services, one tract often serving several different func-
tions. They serve to separate and identify communities and to
create pleasing community landscapes. They provide recreational
lands and wildlife habitat. Wetlands, in particular, have a bio-
logical productivity far out of proportion to their land area and
are vital to numerous economically and recreationally important
animal species. Floodplains, wetlands, and barrier islands serve
to protect other land areas from environmental hazards such as
floods, storms and hurricanes, and coastal erosion. Wetlands can
assimilate and treat wastes, up to a point, with little decline
in water quality. Finally, these lands help to maintain ecologi-
cal diversity and stability. As these benefits of preservation
have become more widely understood and appreciated, conflicts
over the development of such lands have become more intense.
3.7.4 Solid Waste Disposal
The municipal solid waste disposal problem is becoming in-
creasingly important and is closely related to population growth.
Waste per capita is high and growing larger. Average municipal
waste per capita was about 1,400 pounds per year in 1978 (U.S.,
CEQ, 1979, p. xiii) and increased by 38 percent between 1970 and
1980 (Melosi, 1981, p. 9). Disposing of this quantity of waste
both safely and inexpensively is a serious problem for many
cities, expecially large ones.
Simple landfilling is unsightly and odoriferous, encourages
vermin, and allows noxious and toxic wastes to leach into surface
and ground waters. The sanitary landfill, which became the pre-
dominant disposal method after World War II, reduces these prob-
lems by alternating compacted layers of wastes with layers of
dirt, but problems still exist. Sanitary fills have not elimi-
nated environmental problems. They often contaminate ground
water and sometimes produce fumes and gases if not properly moni-
tored. Unless they are vented, methane can migrate and cause
fires and explosions. Further, as late as the mid-1970's, 94
percent of 17,000 land disposal sites surveyed did not meet the
3-36
-------
minimum requirements for a sanitary landfill (Melosi, 1981). By
the 1970's, doubt began to emerge that the sanitary landfill rep-
resented a long-term solution. In addition to environmental prob-
lems, a major concern was the problem of finding suitable sites.
As nearby sites reached capacity, cities had to seek suitable
sites at considerable distances from collection centers, greatly
increasing transportation costs.
Incineration was a major means of disposal in the early part
of the century, but increased concern over the relationship bet-
ween air pollution and incineration lead to its decline. Incin-
eration produces nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and heavy metals.
In addition, incinerators often required costly separation of
waste compounds, especially as the variety of materials in muni-
cipal waste increased, to avoid safety problems and to prevent
damage to incinerators. The technology exists today to reduce
these problems, at a cost, so that incineration of waste may
increase in the future.
Although ocean dumping of municipal waste has diminished in
recent years, it has not disappeared. Where it still exists, it
can create serious coastal pollution problems and damage the ma-
rine environment. An area of several square miles where New York
dumped sewage sludge between 1959 and 1968 has been described by
critics as "a dead sea of muck and black goo" (Melosi, 1981).
3.8 SUMMARY
The Sunbelt is changing rapidly; trends which emerged in the
1970's were often clear breaks with the past. A region of long-
time slow growth, the South is growing today at a more rapid rate
than any other region but the West. Because of its relatively
large population base, the projected 1978 to 2010 increase in pop-
ulation is larger than any other region, 20 million people or 40
percent of the total U.S. increase. By 1980 the South was the
most populous region in the U.S. The Sunbelt's growth is largely
a result of rapid growth in employment, fueled by rapid increases
in manufacturing employment, which generates employment in other
sectors. By 2010, the South is projected to have more manufac-
turing jobs than any other region. As a result of expanding job
opportunities, southerners that once had to leave the region to
find jobs are remaining and northerners are increasingly migrat-
ing to the South. The South is now, and will continue to be, a
region of net inmigration.
The growth of employment, particularly in traditionally high
wage industries, is resulting in significant gains in per capita
incomes. The South has been an area of low incomes even after
adjustment for cost-of-living differentials. However, per capita
incomes in the South are growing at rates more rapid than the
3-37
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national average. Thus, all southern states are projected to
draw closer, with some states reaching the national per capita
income average over the next 30 years.
These changes are widespread throughout the South. Metro-
politan areas are still growing most rapidly in terms of both
rates and absolute numbers, but nonmetropolitan and even rural
areas throughout most of the South are making significant gains
in population, employment, and incomes. The decrease in the
number of nonmetropolitan counties experiencing population loss
and outmigration between 1965 and 1975 is striking in almost all
southern states.
Such rapid growth will bring substantial benefits to many
southerners and many southern communities. It will also bring
increased potential for environmental problems. Increased popu-
lation may increase vehicular air pollution, require expanded
water supply, increase the need for sewage, wastewater, and urban
runoff control and treatment, increase rural to urban land con-
version, and other land-use conflicts, and increase the problems
of municipal solid waste disposal.
3-38
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REFERENCES
Berry, Brian J. L., and Donald C. Dahmann. 1980. "Population
Redistribution in the United States." In Population
Redistribution and Public Policy, edited by Brian J. L. Berry
and Lester P. Silverrnan. Washington, D.C.: National Academy
of Sciences, National Research Council.
Hansen, Niles. Forthcoming. "The New International Division of
Labor and Manufacturing Decentralization in the United
States." Review of Regional Studies.
Jusenius, C. L., and L. C. Ledebur. 1977. "A Myth in the Making:
The Southern Economic Challenge and Northern Economic De-
cline." In The Economics of Southern Growth, edited by
E. Elaine Liner and Lawrence K. Lynch. Research Triangle
Park, N.C.: Southern Growth Policies Board.
Kirschten, Dick. 1981. "America on the Move." National Journal
13 (November 14):2016-24.
Knudson, Douglas M. 1980. Outdoor Recreation. New York:
Macmillan.
Kunofsky, Judith, Sierra Club. September 5, 1979. Letter to
Myron F. Tiemens, Chief, Policy and Guidance Branch, Facility
Requirements Division, Office of Water and Hazardous Materi-
als, U.S., Environmental Protection Agency.
Liu, Ben Chieh. 1974. "Quality of Life Indicators: A Prelimi-
nary Investigation." Social Indicators Research 1:187-208.
Lupsha, Peter A., and William J. Siembieda. 1977. "The Poverty
of Public Services in the Land of Plenty: An Analysis and
Interpretation." In The Rise of the Sunbelt Cities, edited
by David C. Perry and Alfred J. Watkins, Urban Affairs Annual
Reviews, Vol. 14. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.
Melosi, Martin V. 1981. "Waste Management: The Cleaning of
America." Environment 23 (October):6.
Morrill, Richard L. 1979. "Stages in Patterns of Population
Concentration and Dispersion." Professional Geographer
31:55-65.
3-39
-------
Morrison, Peter A. 1980. "Current Demographic Change in Regions
of the United States." In Alternatives to Confrontation: A
National Policy toward Regional Change, edited by Victor L.~
Arnold. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, D. C. Heath.
Plaut, Thomas R. 1981. "Migration Trends of the Elderly in the
United States and the Southwest." Texas Business Review,
May-June, pp. 105-8.
Poston, Dudley L., Jr., William J. Serow, and Robert H. Weller.
1981. "Demographic Change in the South." In The Populaton
of the South; Structure and Change in Social Demographic
Context, edited by Dudley L. Poston arid Robert H. Weller.
Austin: University of Texas Press.
Reilly, William K., ed. 1973. The Use of Land; A Citizens'
Policy Guide to Urban Growth, A Task Force Report Sponsored
by The Rockefeller Brothers Fund. New York: Thomas Y.
Crowe11.
Roseman, Curtis C. 1977. Changing Migration Patterns Within the
United States, Resource Papers for College Geography No. 77-2,
Washington, D.C.: Association of American Geographers.
Southern Growth Policies Board (SGPB). 1976. "Growth Trends in
the South, 1970-1976." Paper prepared for the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency Seminar on Regional Growth
Issues in the South, New Orleans, Louisiana, March 1-2.
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1979. Environmen-
tal Quality, Tenth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Govern-
ment Printing Office.
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1980. Environmen-
tal Quality, Eleventh Annual Report. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Council on Environmen-
tal Quality (CEQ). 1981. National Agricultural Lands Study.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1975.
Mobility of the Population of the United States; March 1970
to March 1975. In Current Population Reports, Series P-25,
No. 601. Washington^D.C. : Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1977.
County and City Data Book 1977: A Statistical Abstract Sup-
plement. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
3-40
-------
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1980.
Statistical Abstract of the United States 1980. Washington,
B.C.:Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1981.
"Preliminary Population Counts." Washington, D.C.: Bureau
of the Census.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
1980. Regional Economic Projections. Washington, D.C.:
BEA.
U.S., National Commission on Air Quality (NCAQ). 1981.
To Breathe Clean Air, Final Report. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Water Resources Council. 1978. The Nation's Water Re-
sources 1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. II
Water Quantitiy, Quality, and Related Land Considerations.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
3-41
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APPENDIX 3A
Bureau of Economic Analysis Projection Methodology-'-
The historical population data used by BEA are those of the
Bureau of the Census; the historical data on employment, earn-
ings, 2 personal income, and wages by industrial origin are de-
rived primarily from Bureau of Labor Statistics records developed
with the aid of state unemployment insurance programs, the In-
ternal Revenue Service, the Social Security Administration, and
other administrative and regulatory programs.3
The projections are made in two major steps—for the nation
and then for the states. The national population projections are
those of the Census Bureau's "Series II." The national economic
projections by industry are based on the population projections
and on Bureau of Labor Statistics projections of labor force, un-
employment, hours paid per employee, output per paid hour, earn-
ings per unit output, and other components of personal income.
The state projections are made within the framework of the
national projections in several steps. Industry earnings in each
state are projected by one of two means, depending on whether the
industry is classified as "basic" or "service." A state's "basic"
industries derive earnings mainly from exports to other states or
to other countries. In general, farming, mining, manufacturing,
the federal military, and railroad, pipeline, and water transpor-
tation are classified as basic industries in all states because
the bulk of their output is directed at broad, often national,
markets. A state's "service" industries derive earnings mainly
from purchases by businesses and households within the state. In
general, construction, certain modes of transportation,
methodology for making state projections is discussed in
the November 1980 issue of the Survey of Current Business (U.S.,
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis Projections
1980, pp. 52-55). This section relies heavily on that discussion.
^Earnings are defined as labor and proprietor's income.
3Garnick, Daniel H. 1980. "The Regional Statistics System."
Chapter 4 in Modeling the Multiregional Economic System; Perspec-
tives for the Eighties, edited by F. Gerard Adams and Norman J.
Glickman. Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, D. C. Heath.
3-42
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communication, public utilities, trade, finance, insurance, real
estate, business and professional services, and civilian govern-
ment are classified as service industries in most states. A
state's relative growth in earnings mainly depends on the stimu-
lus provided by its basic industries. The basic industries grow
in response to increases in the demand for their output by other
states. Increased exports generate additional earnings, which
stimulate service-industry growth in the exporting states. These
industry relationships are reflected in the means of projecting
each state's basic- and service-industry earnings.
State earnings in a basic industry are projected by extending
into the future the trend in the state's share of the national
industry. This share is then multiplied by the national earnings
in that industry projected in the national step.
Earnings in each service industry are projected differently.
The first step is to project state total earnings in all indus-
tries combined. This procedure is initiated by projecting a
"multiplier," or ratio of total earnings to earnings in basic in-
dustries . First, the trend in the location quotient for each
service industry is projected, the location quotient being the
ratio of the industry's share of state total earnings to the in-
dustry's share of national total earnings. This is multiplied by
the industry's share of national total earnings, projected in the
national step, to get the industry's share of state total earn-
ings. Industry shares of state total earnings for all service
industries are then summed and divided into one to get the pro-
jected multiplier. State total earnings are projected by multi-
plying projected earnings in all basic industries by the pro-
jected multiplier. Earnings in each service industry are then
projected by multiplying the projected share of state total earn-
ings for each service industry by projected state total earnings.
State employment in each industry is projected by dividing
projected state earnings in the industry by projected earnings
per employee in the industry in the state. This latter figure
is projected by extending the trend of the ratio of state earn-
ings per employee to national earnings per employee in the in-
dustry and multiplying the projected ratio by national earnings
per employee in the industry as projected by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
State population in the 15 to 64 age bracket is projected by
multiplying projected employment by the projected trend in the
ratio of population in this age group to employment. The under
age 15 population projection is based on the increase in the 15
to 64 age bracket and the over age 64 population projection is
based on the historical trend of the state in attracting retirees.
3-43
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Northeast
Appendix 3B:
The four major U.S. regions as defined in this
study (top) and the Standard Federal Regions
(bottom)
3-44
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APPENDIX 3C: SOUTHERN POPULATIONS: LARGE METROPOLITAN AREAS, 1960-19773
u>
I
April 1
Metropol 1 tan Area 1960
Albuquerque, NM
Atlanta, GA
Augusta, GA, SC
Austin, TX
Baton Rouge, LA
Beaumont-Port Arthui —
Orange, TX
Brlmlngham, AL
Charleston-
North Charleston, SC
Charlotte-Gastonla, NC
Chattanooga, TN-GA
Columbia, SC
Columbus, GA-AL
Corpus Christ!, TX
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX
Daytona Beach, FL
El Paso, TX
Fayettevllle, NC
Fort Lauderdale-
Hollywood, FL
Greensboro-W 1 nston-
Salem-HIgh Point, NC
Greenvl 1 le-
Spartanburg, SC
Houston, TX
Huntlngton-
Ashland, WV, KY, OH
Huntsvllle, AL
Jackson, MS
Jacksonvl 1 le, FL
Johnson Clty-Klngsport-
Brlstol, TN-VA
Kl Ileen-Temple, TX
Knoxvl 1 le, TN
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Lexlnton-Fayette, KY
Little Rock-
North Little Rock, AR
Louisville, KY-IN
Lubbock, TX
276
1,169
230
267
300
331
747
279
444
340
261
218
267
1,738
125
314
149
334
622
413
1,430
284
202
221
530
347
118
377
195
212
272
754
156
April 1
1970
333
1,596
276
360
376
348
767
336
558
371
323
239
285
2,378
169
359
212
620
724
473
1,999
287
282
259
622
374
160
409
229
267
323
867
179
July 1
1977
402
1,832
287
474
435
364
805
385
597
403
374
229
303
2,673
214
435
231
864
774
526
2,512
297
291
296
694
408
209
449
277
294
369
883
200
Absolute
Change
57
426
46
93
76
17
21
57
114
31
62
21
18
640
44
45
64
286
102
61
569
3
81
38
92
26
42
33
33
55
51
113
23
Percent
Change
20.6
36.5
19.9
34.9
25.3
5.1
2.8
20.5
25.7
9.1
23.8
9.5
6.8
36.8
35.2
14.4
42.9
85.7
16.4
14.7
39.8
1.0
39.9
17.0
17.4
7.6
35.4
8.7
17.1
25.8
18.9
15.0
14.7
Net
Migration
17
233
12
51
21
-25
-52
-1
45
-7
24
-22
-33
368
43
-29
21
257
20
7
317
-24
38
(Z)
13
-11
15
-7
12
26
12
21
-11
Absolute
Change
69
236
12
114
60
16
38
49
39
32
51
-9
18
296
44
75
19
244
50
53
513
11
8
37
72
35
49
40
49
28
46
16
21
Percent Net
Change Migration
20.6
14.8
4.2
31.6
15.9
4.7
5.0
14.7
7.0
8.7
15.9
-3.9
6.4
12.4
26.1
21.0
9.1
39.4
6.9
11.2
25.7
3.7
2.9
14.2
11.6
9.3
30.5
9.7
21.2
10.4
14.2
1.8
11.6
39
113
-8
82
25
-1
5
17
2
11
26
-28
-12
121
49
25
-9
241
14
25
322
-1
-10
15
31
18
23
24
38
10
20
-30
3
(continued)
-------
APPENDIX 3C: (continued)
Metropolitan Area
Macon, GA
McAl len-Pharr-
Edlnburg, TX
Melbourne-Titusvt 1 le-
Cocoa, FL
Memphis, TN-AR-MS
Miami, FL
Mobi le, AL
Montgomery, AL
Nahsvi 1 le-Davtdson, TN
New Orleans, LA
Oklahoma City, OK
Orlando, FL
Pensacola, FL
Raleigh-Durham, NC
San Antonio, TX
Savannah, GA
Shreveport, LA
Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL
Tulsa, OK
West Palm Beach-
Boca Raton, FL
April 1
1960
197
181
111
727
935
363
218
597
907
566
338
203
324
736
205
321
809
475
228
April 1
1970
227
182
230
834
1,268
377
226
699
1,046
699
453
243
419
888
208
336
1,089
549
349
July 1
1977
242
232
233
886
1,441
425
254
773
1,133
769
593
274
487
1,025
215
357
1,380
610
477
Absolute
Change
30
1
119
107
333
13
7
102
139
133
116
40
95
152
3
15
279
74
121
Percent
Change
15.2
0.4
106.4
14.7
35.6
3.7
3.4
17.2
15.4
23.5
34.3
19.5
29.4
20.7
1.6
4.6
34.5
15.5
53.0
Net
Migration
(Z)
-43
87
-4
255
42
-18
30
11
54
70
(Z)
49
18
47
-32
253
25
101
Absolute
Change
15
51
3
52
173
48
29
74
87
69
140
31
68
137
7
21
292
61
128
Percent
Change
6.7
28.0
1.3
6.3
13.7
12.9
12.6
10.5
3.3
9.9
30.8
12.9
16.2
15.4
3.4
6.1
26.8
11.0
36.7
Net
Migration
-
16
-7
-5
147
21
15
36
19
21
112
11
44
51
-6
-4
302
30
126
Z = Less than 500
- = Zero or Rounds to Zero
Sources: U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census. 1975. Census of Population and Housing 1970, PHC(2),
General Demographic Trends for Metropolitan Areas, 1960 to 1970, Characteristics of the Population, Part 1, United
States Summary.Washington, D.C.:Government Printing Office; and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of ffie
Census.—1979. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 810. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
aln thousands, except as Indicated. Covers Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's) with estimated popu-
lation of 200,000 or more as of July 1, 1977, issued by the Executive Office of the President, Office of Manage-
ment and Budget. Figures for 1970 include corrections through December 1977. Change measured from April 1, 1960
to April 1, 1970, and from April 1, 1970 to July 1, 1977; minus sign (-) denotes net outmigration or decrease.
For definitions and components of SMSA's, and NECMA's, see Appendix II of the U.S. Statistical Abstract, 1979.
Data based on Federal-State Cooperative Program estimates; therefore, may not agree with data shown in Appendix
II, which Is based on federal revenue-sharing estimates.
-------
CHAPTER 4
INDUSTRIAL TRENDS
HIGHLIGHTS
Status and Trends
1. The projected absolute increase in industrial earnings in
the Sunbelt over the next 30 years is equal to one-half the
total industrial earnings of the entire United States in
1978. The industrial sectors with the greatest potential
environmental impacts are:
• Agriculture, forestry, mining, and construction
because of the land area they cover and the ex-
tent of disruption of the earth's surface; and
• Manufacturing and electrical power generation
because of the quantity and quality of wastes
produced.
2. Each of the sectors which are potential environmental con-
cerns are projected to grow rapidly as measured by earnings
in 1972 dollars, manufacturing is projected to increase 240
percent, transportation by 230 percent, construction by 180
percent, mining by 60 percent, and agriculture and forestry
by 57 percent.
3. Within the agriculture, forestry, mining, and manufactur-
ing sectors, the following industries present the greatest
potential environmental problems for the South based on
their current size, projected growth, and production of
undesirable wastes.
4-i
-------
• Primary and fabricated metals;
• Machinery and transportation equipment manufacture;
• The energy mineral based industries, including
coal, petroleum, and gas extraction, and processing
into fuels, chemicals, plastics, and rubber;
• Textiles manufacturing;
• Agricultural and forest production;
• Food processing; and
• Pulp and paper manufacture.
Geographic Areas
4. By 2010, several states are projected to have especially
large concentrations of industries with significant poten-
tial environmental impacts. These include Texas,
Louisiana, North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, and
Florida.
4-ii
-------
CHAPTER 4
INDUSTRIAL TRENDS
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Over the next 30 years, the Sunbelt is projectd to experience
rapid industrial growth at a rate greater than that for the United
States as a whole. Between 1978 and 2010, real dollar earnings1
and employment are expected to rise 214 and 53 percent respective-
ly, in contrast to 167 and 37 percent for the nation. By 2010,
the South will receive 28 percent of total U.S. earnings and pro-
vide 30 percent of total U.S. jobs. Although such growth will be
the key to increased incomes and rising populations in southern
communities long subject to incomes substantially below average,
outmigration, and even population decline, it will also bring sig-
nificant: environmental pressures. The magnitude of the potential
environmental change in the Sunbelt is indicated by the fact that
the projected absolute increase in industrial earnings in the re-
gion over the next 30 years is equal to one-half the total indus-
trial earnings of the entire United States in 1978. The current
size, concentration, and projected growth of certain industrial
sectors in the South are of special concern because of the magni-
tude of their potential environmental impacts. These include man-
ufacturing because of its rapid growth and the volume of wastes
generated; mining because of the disruption of the earth's surface
and disposal of spoils; and agriculture and forestry because of
the tremendous volumes of sediment, often containing nutrients and
pesticides, washed into water bodies by the exposure and working
of soil surfaces.
This chapter reviews projections of industrial trends for the
Sunbelt. It examines and compares current size and projected
growth of the major industrial sectors. Its purpose is to iden-
tify: (1) those industrial sectors that have the potential to
significantly affect environmental quality in the Sunbelt over the
next 30 years and (2) those states where the greatest impacts of
each of these sectors are likely to be felt. The results of this
analysis are used to identify some of the key industrial driving
forces to be further investigated in the chapters of Volume II.
*As used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), earnings
refers to labor and proprietors' income.
4-1
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4.2 METHODOLOGY
The analysis is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
projections of earnings by state by industry.1 Earnings, rather
than employment projections, are used to indicate the size and
growth of an industry. Change in earnings is usually a more ac-
curate indicator of output than is change in employment because
changes in output per employee are typically reflected in earnings
but not in employment changes.
\" Although these projections provide valuable indicators of in-
», dustrial change, they do have a number of limitations for the pur-
pose of identifying sectors with the potential to create environ-
mental change. First, earnings are not accurate measures of either
changes in output or production of wastes or residuals. They ac-
*"' curately measure changes in output only where labor costs per unit
, of output remain constant and they are poor measures of production
; of wastes because residual production per dollar of earnings varies
dramatically across industries and across time.
Second, the projections have all the limitations, discussed in
Chapter 3, inherent in the assumptions and methodology used to make
them. They do not anticipate changes in the future, but rather
describe a future based on past trends. Inevitable inaccuracies
become greater as the projections are progressively disaggregated
to more specific industries and geographic areas. The projections
in this chapter are, in certain cases, at odds with projections for
a given industry presented in subsequent chapters, where more at-
tention could be focused on trends and trend changes in a specific
industry. As an example, the BEA projections predicted petroleum
and gas mining earnings would increase by only 28 percent in Region
/ 6 between 1978 and 2010. Subsequent to 1978, the oil and gas in-
dustry entered a boom period in Region 6 unpredictable from pre-
1978 trends. Rig counts, not directly comparable to earnings but
certainly indicative, increased by 78 percent over the short period
between November, 1978, and September, 1981 (Oil and Gas Journal,
1978, p. 212; and 1981, p. 231). While it is uncertain whether
this rapid growth rate is a short-term phenomenon or will persist
in the long-term, it is clear that unforeseen dramatic changes in
trends do occur.
Third, the greatest industry detail available in the projec-
tions is the two-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
IA discussion of the assumptions and methodology used in these
projections is found in Section 3.2 and in Appendix 3-A of Chapter
3.
4-2
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code.-'- In general the two-digit SIC codes combine two or more in-
dustries with different environmental consequences, both in quality
and in quantity of residuals. For example, the two-digit SIC 31
(leather and leather products) includes the three-digit SIC 311
(leather tanning and finishing), which has the potential to produce
serious environmental impacts, plus five other three-digit categor-
ies such as SIC 314 (footwear) and SIC 317 (handbags and other per-
sonal leather goods), which do not. It is impossible to tell from
the BEA projections which of these three-digit industries predomi-
nate in any given geographic area, and thus whether the presence of
leather and leather products establishments is likely to create
environmental problems.
Fourth, the greatest level of geographic detail in the projec-
tions is the state. A given industry is usually not distributed
uniformly over a state but is more or less concentrated in selected
substate regions. Two errors can result from this fact:
(1) The BEA projections tend to give the impression that
an entire state is affected by a given industry when
in fact the affected area may be relatively small; and
(2) A low level of activity in the state as a whole may in-
dicate the industry is not an important environmental con-
cern when in fact the industry may be so concentrated it
could create serious problems in those areas.
Finally, the fact that individual states vary greatly in area
may distort conclusions about the severity of a potential problem
in a given state drawn from the size of an industry in the state.
For example, environmental problems based on the magnitude of earn-
ings in an industry may tend to be overestimated in Texas and un-
derestimated in South Carolina simply because of the land area
differences of these states.
In sum, the BEA projections do have a number of limitations.
However, they are one of a very few sets of systematic, consistent,
comparable, long-range projections for all states in the region in
considerable industry detail. One may argue with individual val-
ues, but the overall trends remain plausible. They are highly
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code is a hierar
chical system that classifies industrial establishments by their
principal product. (See U.S., Exec. Off. of President, OMB, 1972
and 1977.) The greatest detail is available at the four digit lev
el. Related four digit industries are combined into a single
three-digit classification, related three-digit industries are com
bined in a two-digit classification, and so on. For example, manu
facturing, primary metals, iron and steel foundries, and gray iron
foundries have the codes SIC 3, SIC 33, SIC 332, and SIC 3321,
respectively.
4-3
-------
useful for the purpose of this chapter, which is not to predict ac-
curately the future size of a given industry in a given state, but
to identify those sectors with the greatest potential for creating
economic and environmental change in the South.
4.3 INDUSTRIAL TRENDS
Industrial earnings in real dollars^ are projected to grow more
rapidly between 1978 and 2010 in the Sunbelt (214 percent) than in
the United States as a whole (167 percent) or any other major U.S.
region (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980). In absolute terms,
earnings in the Sunbelt are projected to grow from 211 billion dol-
lars to 661 billion, a change equal to about one-half the total
earnings of the United States in 1978. Trends in the two Sunbelt
regions are similar. Earnings in Region 4 are projected to grow
from 123 billion to 381 billion dollars (209 percent) and in Region
6 from 87 to 280 billion dollars (221 percent) . The magnitude of
these changes is large both absolutely and relatively. Although
they clearly offer the potential for significant benefits, as dis-
cussed in the previous chapter, they also indicate the possibility
of significant environmental change caused by increased industrial
activity.
When changes in industrial earnings are broken down by major
industrial sector, it is apparent that almost all sectors are pro-
jected to grow more rapidly in the South than in the United States
(Tables 4-1 and 4-2) . Among the three sectors of manufacturing,
mining, and agriculture — those "basic" sectors supplying the impe-
tus for growth in the remaining "service" sectors — earnings in
manufacturing in both regions 4 and 6 and in mining in Region 4 are
growing more rapidly than in the total U.S. Agriculture in both
regions is projected to grow at a similar rate and mining in Region
6 is projected to grow at a slower rate than the corresponding U.S.
sectors. From these figures it is clear that growth in manufactur-
ing, and to a lesser extent mining, is the key driving force behind
the projected high growth rate of total Sunbelt earnings relative
to total U.S. earnings. Projected growth rates for the remaining
"service" industries of transportation, construction, wholesale and
retail trade, services, government, and finance, insurance, and
real estate vary, but are all more rapid than their corresponding
U.S. industries.
The structure of the Sunbelt economy, or the relative impor-
tance of individual sectors to total Sunbelt earnings, is also pro-
jected to change. Some of these changes reflect trends in the
United States economy as a whole:
earnings figures in this chapter are expressed in terms of
constant 1972 dollars.
4-4
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TABLE 4-1: REGION 4 SECTOR EARNINGS
(millions of 1972 dollars)
% change
1978-2010
Sector
All Industry
Agriculture,
Forestry,
Fisheries
Mining
Construction
^ Manufacturing
i
1/1 Transportation,
Communication ,
and Public
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance,
and Real Estate
All Service
All Government
1969
86,137
3,708
625
5,823
23,169
5,689
5,121
9,465
4,174
12,306
15,674
1978
123,318
4,260
1,562
7,743
31,077
9,446
8,054
13,030
6,523
18,725
22,311
1990
205,565
4,763
3,523
13,162
51,518
16,427
13,333
21,447
11,934
35,201
33,337
2000
285,002
5,539
4,815
18,080
71,437
23,278
18,158
29,564
17,249
51,896
43,780
2010
380,641
6,522
6,206
24,030
95,310
31,548
23,913
39,265
23,687
72,289
56,314
Region 4
209
53
298
210
207
234
197
201
263
286
152
U.S.
167
59
171
172
121
177
151
154
204
237
128
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
-------
TABLE 4-2: REGION 6 SECTOR EARNINGS
(millions of 1972 dollars)
% change
1978-2010
Sector
All Industry
Agriculture,
Forestry,
Fisheries
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Transportation ,
Communication,
and Public
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Insurance,
and Real Estate
All Service
All Government
1969
56,310
2,114
2,445
4,155
11,226
4,367
3,744
6,416
2,870
8,301
10,455
1978
87,408
2,200
5,253
7,288
16,746
7,372
6,565
9,407
4,747
13,283
14,168
1990
148,831
2,802
6,852
10,878
32,549
12,704
11,054
15,309
8,825
25,611
21,616
2000
207,878
3,142
7,137
14,282
48,373
17,861
15,134
20,991
12,792
38,246
29,058
2010
Region 6 U.S.
280,152
3,609
7,643
18,545
67,352
24,140
20,032
27,948
17,691
53,945
38,103
221
64
45
154
302
227
208
197
273
306
169
167
59
171
172
121
177
151
154
204
237
128
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980,
-------
• Services and finance, insurance/ and real estate are
increasing their shares;
• Agriculture and government are decreasing their shares;
and
• Wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation, and
construction are maintaining their shares.
Other structural changes in the Sunbelt are in contrast to United
States patterns. Nationally, the share of total earnings derived
from manufacturing is projected to decline from 26 percent to 22
percent over the period 1978 to 2010. In the Sunbelt, manufactur-
ing in Region 4 is projected to maintain its share of total earn-
ings at around 25 percent and in Region 6 to increase its share
from 19 percent to 24 percent. At the national level, mining is
expected to maintain its 1.6 percent share of total earnings. How-
ever, mining earnings in Region 4 will increase from a below aver-
age 1.3 percent share to the national average. In Region 6, where
mining has contributed a relatively large 6.0 percent of total
earnings, mining's share will decrease to 2.7 percent. These pro-
jected trends again emphasize the growing importance of the Sunbelt
as one of the nation's most important manufacturing regions and, in
general, the decline of primary, rural activities such as agricul-
ture, forestry, and mining to its industrial base.
The sectors in the Sunbelt with the greatest potential environ-
mental impacts are (1) agriculture, forestry, and mining because of
the land area they cover and the extent to which they modify the
earth's surface and (2) manufacturing and electrical power genera-
tion because of the wastes produced. Because of this potential im-
pact, these sectors, with the exception of electrical power genera-
tion and forestry, are examined in greater detail in the next sec-
tion in order to identify key industries within these sectors with
the potential to impact the Southern environment. Electrical power
generation and forestry could not be separated out of the BEA pro-
jections in enough detail to be useful; they are, however, consid-
ered in more detail in Chapters 7 and 9. Construction and trans-
portation do create environmental impacts, but much of their impact
is limited to the period of construction itself or is closely re-
lated to general urbanization. Wholesale and retail trade; fi-
nance, insurance, and real estate; services; and government create
few impacts in themselves that are not related to the urbanization
process and population growth (see Chapter 3).
4.4 GROWTH OF AGRICULTURE, MINING, AND MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
Within the three sectors of agriculture, mining, and manufac-
turing, some industries have the potential to create more serious
environmental impacts than others. This section provides a broad
4-7
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overview of the size, growth, and locational patterns of the most
environmentally significant of these industries in the Sunbelt.
The analysis concentrates on 16 two-digit industries within the
one-digit agriculture, mining, and manufacturing sectors. These
sectors were identified on the basis of their size, their projected
growth rate, and the severity of their associated environmental
problems (Tables 4-3 and 4-4) . The industries projected to grow
most rapidly (greater than 250 percent) in both regions include:
stone, clay, and glass products; fabricated metals; machinery; in-
struments; rubber; and coal mining. To these rapidly growing com-
mon industries are added petroleum refining in Region 4 and primary
metals, chemicals, and metal mining in Region 6. Of the industries
projected to grow most rapidly, only machinery is currently also a
large (earnings greater than 2 billion dollars) industry in either
region. Other large, but not among the most rapidly growing, in-
dustries include transportation equipment, food and kindred pro-
ducts, textiles, apparel, chemicals, and agriculture in Region 4
and petroleum mining and agriculture in Region 6. From this list
of large or rapidly growing industries, instrument and apparel man-
ufacturing are not considered further because of their relatively
low production of wastes. Of the remaining smaller and less rapid-
ly growing industries — nonmetal mining, leather products, lumber
products, furniture and fixtures, tobacco products, and printing
and publishing--only nonmetal mining was considered to pose signi-
ficant enough environmental concerns region-wide to be included in
the analysis.
The analysis in this section provides a broad overview of pro-
jected environmentally significant industrial change in the Sun-
belt. 1 An extended discussion of the projected trends and the
character of the environmental problems created by these sectors is
contained in Volumes II and III. The primary data underlying the
analysis are: (1) the projected growth in industrial earnings over
time by detailed sector for Regions 4 and 6 contained in Tables 4-3
and 4-4; and (2) 1978 and projected 2010 earnings by state con-
tained in Appendix 4A and summarized in Table 4-5.
4.4.1 The Industrial Core Manufacturing Industries
The primary metals, fabricated metals, machinery, and transpor-
tation equipment manufacturing industries represent the traditional
core of a manufacturing economy. All of these industries are
information on environmental problems associated with each
industry is derived from statistics presented in Volumes II and III
and the following sources: Center for Environmental Reporting,
1979; U.S. Water Resources Council, 1978; Nemerow, 1978; U.S., EPA,
ORD, Strategic Analysis Group, 1980; and U.S., EPA, Off. of Air,
Noise, & Radiation, 1980.
4-8
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TABLE 4-3: REGION 4 EARNINGS IN MANUFACTURING, MINING, AND
AGRICULTURE
(millions of 1972 dollars)
Sector
(SIC codes)
Manufacturing Durables
Lumber Products (24)
Furniture and Fixtures (25)
Stone, Clay and Glass Products (32)
Primary Metals (33)
Fabricated Metals (34)
Machinery (35 and 36) (Including
electric)
Transportation Equipment (37)
(Including motor vehicles)
Instruments (38)
Miscellaneous Manufacturing (39)
Manufacturing Nondurables
Food and Kindred Products (20)
Tobacco Products (21 )
Textile Mill Products (22)
Apparel and Other Fabricated (23)
Paper and Allied Products (26)
Printing and Publishing (27)
Chemicals and Allied Products (28)
Petroleum Refining (29)
Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastics (30)
Leather and Leather Products (31 )
Agricultural Production (01 & 02)
Mining
Coal Mining (11 & 12)
Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas (13)
Metal Mining (10)
Nonmetal Mining, excluding fuels (14)
1969
10,318
1,056
932
766
1,057
1,131
2,807
1,700
192
245
12,851
1,871
412
4,099
1,833
1,117
821
1,840
57
514
221
3,708
625
298
67
25
205
1978
14,752
1,509
1,123
1,134
1,590
1,764
4,651
2,242
395
343
16,325
2,388
504
4,391
2,205
1,602
1,139
2,509
124
1,191
231
4,260
1,562
1,039
152
17
319
1990
26,830
2,262
1,778
2,042
2,730
3,307
9,390
3,887
881
553
24,688
3,278
562
5,780
3,279
2,528
2,033
4,230
276
2,475
247
4,763
3,523
2,764
290
27
442
2000
38,740
2,930
2,436
2,941
3,804
4,811
14,131
5,513
1,423
751
32,697
4,148
646
7,222
4,271
3,337
2,846
5,816
412
3,725
275
5,539
4,815
3,940
310
30
535
% change
2010 1978-2010
52,991
3,748
3,214
4,015
5,095
6,593
19,814
7,455
2,076
981
42,319
5,156
751
8,962
5,435
4,326
3,805
7,738
571
5,268
307
6,522
6,206
5,184
336
34
652
259
148
186
254
220
273
326
233
426
186
159
116
49
104
146
170
234
208
360
342
33
53
297
399
121
100
104
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
4-9
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TABLE 4-4: REGION 6 EARNINGS IN MANUFACTURING, MINING,
AND AGRICULTURE
(millions of 1972 dollars)
Sector
IS 1C codes)
Manufacturing Durables
Lumber Products (24)
Furniture and Fixtures (25)
Stone, Clay and Glass Products (32)
Primary Metals (33)
Fabricated Metals (34)
Machinery (35 & 36) ( including electric)
Transportation Equipment (37)
(Including motor vehicles)
Instruments (38)
Miscellaneous Manufacturing (39)
Manufacturing Nondurables
Food and Kindred Products (20)
Tobacco Products (21)
Textile Mill Products (22)
Apparel and Other Fabricated (23)
Paper and Allied Products (26)
Printing and Publishing (27)
Chemicals and Allied Products (28)
Petroleum Refining (29)
Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastics (30)
Leather and Leather Products (31 )
Agricultural Production (01 & 02)
Mining
Coal Mining (11 & 12)
Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas (13)
Metal Mining (10)
Nonmetal Mining, excluding fuels (14)
1969
6,313
443
217
445
495
771
1,803
1,606
147
108
4,913
1,194
1
87
459
422
519
1,155
797
198
75
2,114
2,445
7
1,582
79
145
1978
9,462
707
242
715
881
1,512
3,545
1,451
248
161
7,284
1,556
1
94
617
647
717
1,859
1,195
470
95
2,200
5,253
40
4,682
164
151
1990
19,820
1,130
387
1,334
1,846
3,278
8,577
2,482
499
289
12,729
2,278
1
162
1,047
1,151
1,292
3,792
1,832
1,062
114
2,802
6,852
205
6,078
283
285
2000
30,398
1,527
536
1,941
2,939
5,123
13,621
3,519
772
420
17,975
2,978
1
215
1,452
1,632
1,844
5,759
2,374
1,588
132
3,142
7,137
337
6,010
432
358
2010
43,066
2,007
713
2,676
4,236
7,346
19,689
4,729
1,100
571
24,287
3,797
1
279
1,924
2,209
2,507
8,164
3,018
2,236
152
3,609
7,643
434
6,104
607
448
% change
1978-2010
355
184
195
274
381
386
455
226
344
255
233
144
0
197
212
241
250
338
153
376
60
64
45
1,110
28
270
197
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
4-10
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TABLE 4-5: STATES PROJECTED TO HAVE HIGH EARNINGS IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES IN 2010a
Industry AL FL GA KY MS
Stone, Clay, and Glass o
Primary Metals x o o
Fabricated Metals o
Mach 1 nery
(Including electrical) o o
Transportation Equipment
( 1 nc 1 ud I ng motor
vehicles) o o o
Food and Kindred Products o o
Textile Mil 1 Products x
Paper and Allied Products o x
Chemicals and Al 1 led
Products
Petroleum Refining
Rubber and Ml seel laneous
Plastics
Agriculture x o o
Coal Mining o x
Crude Petroleum and
Natural Gas
Metal Mining
Nonmetal Mining o o
NC SC TN AR LA NM OK TX
o o x
00 X
O 0 x
O 0 x
00 X
0 O x
X X
o o o o x
o o o x x
0 X
o o o x
x o *
o ox
X
0
Source: Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
a "x" indicates a leading producer, "o" indicates other states with at least 8 percent of the southern Industry earnings.
-------
projected to become increasingly important in the Sunbelt, and all
produce environmentally significant waste products.
A. Primary Metals
The primary metal industry (SIC 33) includes factories that
smelt and refine ferrous or nonferrous ores, that roll, draw, or
alloy refined metals, that cast molten metals, and that manufac-
ture nails, spikes, wire, or cable. The industry is one of the
largest point sources of carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, and par-
ticulates and a significant point source of airborne trace ele-
ments, particularly lead. It is the largest manufacturing pro-
ducer of water-borne suspended solids and industrial solid waste,
and one of the largest industrial producers of hazardous wastes.
In addition, it generates large amounts of wastewater containing
oil and grease and waste heat I (see Chapter 14).
Primary metal earnings in 1978 were 1.6 billion dollars in Re-
gion 4 and 0.9 billion dollars in Region 6. These figures indi-
cate that primary metals ranked ninth and sixth among manufactur-
ing industries in regions 4 and 6, respectively, and that the
South produced 13 percent of the total U.S. industry earnings.
Major primary metal centers include the Gulf Coast, dominated by
aluminum with some tin, zinc, uranium, and manganese and a more
diversified northern Alabama-Kentucky-Tennessee Valley center pro-
ducing iron and steel, aluminum, uranium, tungsten, manganese,
lithium, and hafnium/zirconium (Oxford Regional Economic Atlas,
1975). These concentrations indicate the importance of plentiful
energy supplies—coal in Alabama and Kentucky, oil and gas in
Texas and Louisiana, and electric power in the Tennessee Valley.
Industry earnings are projected to grow by 220 percent in
Region 4 and 381 percent in Region 6. This growth represents 24
percent of the total U.S. increase in earnings and results in the
Sunbelt's share of the U.S. industry increasing to 20 percent by
2010. At that time, the industry is projected to be concentrated
in Alabama and Texas with secondary concentrations in Georgia,
Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana.
B. Fabricated Metals
The fabricated metals industry (SIC 34) produces fabricated
structural metal products, metal forgings and stampings, and metal
cans, tinware, hand tools, and hardware. Waterborne wastes are not
•'-As discussed in Chapter 14, industrial activities can gener-
ate polluted wastewaters, but the amount of pollution discharged
to the environment will depend on the level of wastewater treat-
ment applied.
4-12
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large in volume but are often highly toxic with large concentra-
tions of acids, heavy metals, oil and grease, and waste heat. Air-
borne wastes include heavy metals, hydrocarbons, and particulates.
The industry is also a significant producer of hazardous wastes
(see Chapter 15).
In 1978, the industry produced earnings of 1.8 billion dollars
in Region 4 and 1.5 billion in Region 6; it ranked seventh and
fourth in earnings among all manufacturing industries in the re-
spective regions. The industry was widely distributed throughout
metropolitan areas in the South, with the largest concentration in
Houston (Oxford Regional Economic Atlas, 1975). The industry is
projected to grow between 1978 and 2010 by 273 percent and 386 per
cent, respectively, in regions 4 and 6. These changes represent 33
percent of the total U.S. increase in earnings and result in the
Sunbelt's share of the U.S. industry earnings increasing from 17 to
27 percent. The industry is projected to continue to be wide-
spread, with Texas remaining the largest producer but with substan-
tial shares also to be found in Florida and Tennessee.
C. Machinery
The machinery manufacturing industry (SIC 35 and 36) produces
all types of machinery including electrical and communications
equipment. Machinery manufacturing produces airborne criteria pol-
lutants and trace metals and wastewaters containing suspended sol-
ids, heavy metals, oils and solvents, and pH-altering chemicals.
Further, it produces significant quantities of hazardous wastes.
In terms of earnings; machinery is the dominant manufacturing
industry in the Sunbelt and is projected to become even more domi-
nant in the future. In 1978, the industry was the largest source
of manufacturing earnings in both regions 4 and 6, producing, re-
spectively, 4.7 and 3.5 billion dollars of earnings. In spite of
the size, the Sunbelt received only 16 percent of total U.S. ma-
chinery earnings. Within the Sunbelt, machinery manufacture was
widely distributed but with concentrations in Houston, Dallas/Ft.
Worth, Oklahoma City, and Louisville (Oxford Regional Economic
Atlas, 1975). The rate of earnings growth between 1978 and 2010
is projected to be the most rapid of any manufacturing sector in
Region 6 (455 percent) and the fourth most rapid in Region 4 (326
percent). This growth, representing 33 percent of the total pro-
jected U.S. growth in machinery earnings, would bring the Sunbelt
share of U.S. machinery earnings to 27 percent. Machinery's
share of total Sunbelt manufacturing earnings is projected to be
even more dominant in 2010 than it was in 1978. Texas is pro-
jected to produce one-third of all machinery earnings in 2010,
but with all other states besides New Mexico—especially Florida,
Kentucky, North Carolina, and Tennessee—having significant
shares.
4-13
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D. Transportation Equipment
The transportation equipment industry (SIC 37) produces motor
vehicles, aircraft, ships and boats, railroad equipment, and mis-
sile and space hardware. These manufacturing processes generate
criteria air pollutants (especially hydrocarbons) and trace metals
(especially asbestos and cadmium). It is also a large manufactur-
ing water user, and generates wastewaters containing oils, sol-
vents, acids, suspended solids, painting chemicals, heavy metals,
and waste heat. In addition, it is a significant producer of haz-
ardous wastes.
In 1978, the transportation equipment industry was the fifth
largest source of manufacturing earnings in both regions (2.2 bil-
lion dollars in Region 4 and 1.5 billion dollars in Region 6), but
represented only 12 percent of U.S. transportation equipment earn-
ings. Major centers of motor vehicle and aerospace manufacturing
were in Dallas-Ft. Worth, Atlanta, and the east coast of Florida.
Ship building was concentrated along the Gulf Coast of Texas,
Louisiana, and Mississippi, and the South Atlantic Coast (Oxford
Regional Economic Atlas, 1975). Projected earnings growth rates
(233 percent in Region 4 and 226 percent in Region 6) are similar
to the overall manufacturing earnings growth rate for the Sunbelt
and will bring the Sunbelt's share of U.S. earnings to 16 percent.
Texas is projected to have the greatest share of earnings with
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana also having
large shares.
4.4.2 The Fuel Based Industries
The fuel based industries include coal mining, oil and gas min-
ing, petroleum refining, chemical manufacture, and rubber manufac-
ture. They are a highly related set of industries, with the result
that their locational patterns are often interdependent. The loca-
tion of large quantities of the nation's coal, oil, and gas re-
sources in the Sunbelt means these industries play an especially
prominent role in the Sunbelt economy.
A. Coal Mining
The coal mining industry (SIC 11 and 12) includes the mining,
cleaning, and washing of anthracite, bituminous coal, and lignite.
In coal mining districts the industry contributes to water pollu-
tion problems because of high suspended solids and dissolved acids
from spoils runoff and acid mine drainage. Severe surface disrup-
tion, the possibility of subsidence, and the problem of spoils dis-
posal accompany many mining operations. (See Chapter 6 for further
discussion of trends and environmental problems.)
4-14
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In 1978, 38 percent of U.S. coal mining earnings were re-
ceived in the Sunbelt, 1.0 billion dollars in Region 4 and 40
million dollars in Region 6. Seventy-three percent of this pro-
duction was concentrated in eastern Kentucky, with an additional
16 percent in northern Alabama. The lignite resources of south-
eastern Texas and subbituminous coal in New Mexico were just com-
ing into significant production during the past decade. Earnings
in the industry are projected to grow by 425 percent in the Sun-
belt as a whole between 1978 and 2010 with 65 percent of this
growth occurring in Kentucky and most of the remainder in Alabama
and Tennessee.
B. Petroleum and Gas Development
The petroleum and natural gas mining industry (SIC 13) in-
cludes the exploration and production of these minerals plus the
recovery of oil from heavy oil bearing sands and from oil shale.
The industry is one of the largest point sources of airborne hy-
drocarbons. It produces large quantities of highly saline waste-
water plus liquid hydrocarbon wastes. Locally, surface distur-
bance to lands occurs and in some locations oil and gas mining
can produce land subsidence if produced water is not reinjected
(see Chapter 6 for further details).
Seventy-two percent of U.S. earnings in this industry occurred
in the Sunbelt (2.6 billion dollars in Region 4 and 4.7 billion
dollars in Region 6). The primary areas of production include,
Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma; these three states produced 96 per-
cent of Sunbelt total earnings in the industry. The BEA projec-
tions indicate earnings for the southern region are expected to
grow by only 33 percent, but, as indicated earlier, high drilling
rates since 1978 put this projection in doubt. Seventy-five per-
cent of this increase is projected to occur in Texas, Louisiana,
and Oklahoma, but these projections do not include potential new
areas such as in Alabama or along the South Atlantic Coast.
C. Petroleum Refining
The petroleum refining industry (SIC 29) consists of petroleum
refining itself plus the manufacture of paving and roofing materi-
als and the compounding of lubricating oils and greases. It pro-
duces noxious odors and is a major stationary source of airborne
carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, sulfur oxides, and lead. The water
pollutants it generates include biochemical oxygen demand (BOD),
solids, hydrocarbons, and waste heat. Further, it is one of the
largest sources of hazardous wastes in Region 6 (see chapters 6 and
15 for further details).
Petroleum refining earnings in 1978 in the Sunbelt, like petro-
leum production, were concentrated in the three state Texas/
4-15
-------
Louisiana/Oklahoma area of Region 6 (96 percent of Region 6 earn-
ings of 1.2 billion dollars). Region 4 earnings were only 0.1 bil-
lion dollars. The industry ranked sixth in earnings among manufac-
turing sectors in Region 6 but only eighteenth in Region 4. The
Sunbelt produces 36 percent of U.S. earnings in refining indicating
it has a smaller share of U.S. refining earnings than it does of
petroleum and gas mining earnings.
Between 1978 and 2010, industry earnings are projected to grow
153 percent in Region 6, where the industry is large, and 360 per-
cent in Region 4, where it is currently small. This growth repre-
sents 44 percent of total U.S. growth in refining earnings. The
greatest absolute increases are projectd to continue to be in the
tri-state Texas/Louisiana/Oklahoma area of Region 6, but Kentucky
is also projected to see a significant increase.
D. Chemicals and Allied Products
The chemicals industry (SIC 28) produces basic chemicals such
as acids, alkalies, and organics; chemicals to be used in further
manufacturing, such as synthetic fibers, plastics, and pigments;
and finished chemicals such as drugs, soaps and detergents, paints,
fertilizers, and explosives. The chemicals industry is by far the
nation's largest producer of hazardous wastes; estimates typically
range around 60 percent. It is a major generator of wastewater
containing heat, BOD, hydrocarbons, nitrogen and phosphorus, and
heavy metals. In addition, it is one of the largest point sources
of airborne hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxides, and heavy
metals (see Chapter 7 for a further discussion).
The chemical industry is one of the most important industrial
sectors to the South. In 1978 it ranked third in earnings among
manufacturing sectors in Region 4 (2.5 billion dollars) and second
in Region 6 (1.9 billion dollars). Twenty-nine percent of U.S.
earnings in the industry accrued to the South. The largest concen-
tration of the industry in the Sunbelt was located in Texas and
Louisiana with an emphasis on organics and plastics (see Chapter
7). Smaller concentrations were found in Tennessee (inorganics and
plastics), North Carolina and South Carolina (plastics), and
Florida (agricultural chemicals).
This already large industry is projected to grow rapidly be-
tween 1978 and 2010 (208 percent in Region 4 and 338 percent in
Region 6). In absolute terms, the projected growth of industry
earnings (11.5 billion dollars) ranks second only to machinery
among manufacturing sectors in the Sunbelt. These figures repre-
sent 40 percent of total U.S. growth in this sector and indicate
the Sunbelt's share of U.S. industry earnings is projected to grow
to 40 percent in 2010. In addition, this growth is projected to be
highly concentrated, with 51 percent occurring in Louisiana and
4-16
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Texas and another 28 percent occurring in the Carolinas and
Tennessee.
E. Rubber and Miscellaneous Plastics
The rubber industry (SIC 30) includes the manufacture of tires,
footwear, floor covering, mechanical rubber goods, and plastic pro-
ducts from natural, synthetic, and reclaimed rubber and rubber-like
products. It is a large national source of hazardous wastes and
industrial solid wastes. It produces airborne emissions as well as
waterborne BOD, solids, acids and bases, hydrocarbons, and highly
odoriferous chemicals that can make water unpalatable at extremely
low concentrations.
In 1978, the industry ranked eleventh in manufacturing earnings
in Region 4 (1.2 billion dollars) and thirteenth in Region 6 (0.5
billion dollars). These values represent 22 percent of the total
U.S. industry. Although the industry is not among the largest man-
ufacturing sectors in the South, it is projected to be among the
most rapidly growing over the period 1978 to 2010 (third in Region
4 at 342 percent and fourth in Region 6 at 376 percent). Earnings
have been and are projected to continue to be concentrated in
Texas, the Carolinas, and Tennessee.
4.4.3 Textiles
The textile industry (SIC 22) includes the preparation of natu-
ral and synthetic fibers, the dyeing and finishing of these fibers,
their manufacture into yarn, thread, and twine, and the manufacture
of fabrics and carpets. In areas of industry concentration, it is
a significant point source of airborne hydrocarbons and its waste-
waters contain BOD, solids, coliforms, acids and bases, and waste
heat. The processing of cotton fibers has been associated with
byssinosis, or brown lung, a respiratory disease caused by inhaling
cotton dust. However, the major environmental concerns are the
rapidly changing quantities of metals and hazardous chemicals, some
with potential carcinogenic properties, that are used in textile
processing. These chemicals and metals may create both water pol-
lution and hazardous waste treatment and disposal problems (see
Chapter 8 for further details).
The industry is and will continue to be very important in Re-
gion 4. In 1978, it was the second largest manufacturing source of
earnings in Region 4 (4.7 billion dollars). The South produced
more than two-thirds (68 percent) of total U.S. earnings in this
industry, with 84 percent of this concentrated in the three states
of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Although the Re-
gion 4 industry is projected to grow by only 104 percent through
2010, this would represent 77 percent of total U.S. growth in the
industry and a doubling of one of the largest manufacturing sectors
4-17
-------
in the Sunbelt. Most (83 percent) of this growth is projected to
occur in the three states dominating current production. Because
of the current size, projected absolute growth, localization, and
toxicity and rapidly changing character of wastes, this industry is
judged to be environmentally important in the Sunbelt.
4.4.4 Stone, Clay, and Glass Products
The stone, clay, and glass products industry (SIC 32) consists
of the manufacture of glass, cement, structural clay products such
as bricks, concrete, and gypsum products, and abrasives and asbes-
tos products. It is a major point source of airborne particulates
and sulfur oxides due both to high fossil fuel use and to the hand-
ling, grinding, blending, and processing of the raw materials. The
industry generates wastewaters high in suspended and dissolved sol-
ids, pH altering substances, and waste heat. The asbestos subin-
dustry produces highly carcinogenic asbestos wastes.
In 1978, earnings in the stone, clay, and glass industry ranked
thirteenth (1.1 billion dollars) in Region 4 and ninth in Region 6
(0.7 billion dollars) among all manufacturing industries. The raw
materials used by the industry are typically low-valued, heavy, and
bulky. Because the raw materials are difficult to transport and
are found in many locations throughout the Sunbelt, production is
widely distributed among the states. The industry is expected to
grow over the period 1978 to 2010 at the rate of 254 percent in
Region 4 and 274 percent in Region 6. Growth in earnings will be
widely distributed throughout the Sunbelt, with the geographical
distribution of earnings in 2010 resembling that in 1978.
4.4.5 Agriculture and Forest Based Industries
The environmentally significant agriculture and forest based
industries include agricultural production, forest production, food
and kindred products manufacture, and pulp and paper manufacture.
These industries, with the exception of forest production, are dis-
cussed below. Forest production, for which disaggregated BEA data
and projections were not available, is discussed in Chapter 9.
A. Agricultural Production
The agricultural production industry (SIC 01 arid 02) includes
the production of both crops and livestock. Water runoff from ex-
posed soil surfaces produces serious environmental problems. It
contributes to soil erosion and the deterioration of the productive
land base. Runoff from agricultural lands is by far the largest
source of waterborne suspended solids, dissolved nutrients such as
nitrogen and phosphorus, and toxic pesticides, and is one of the
largest sources of BOD and coliforms. Tillage, wind erosion, open
4-18
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field burning, orchard heating, and pesticide application also
contribute to air pollution problems.
Earnings from the industry in 1978 were 4.3 billion dollars in
Region 4 and 2.2 billion dollars in Region 6; these values repre-
sent 28 percent of U.S. agricultural earnings. States with the
greatest shares of Sunbelt earnings include Florida, Georgia, North
Carolina, Arkansas, and Texas. Growth in total agricultural earn-
ings over the period 1978-2010 is projected to be slow relative to
growth in total Sunbelt earnings—53 percent in Region 4 and 64
percent in Region 6. However, some states, such as Kentucky,
Louisiana, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, are projected to see earnings
growth of 80 percent or more, primarily through the conversion of
forest and rangeland to cropland. Such conversion, by exposing
more soil surface to wind and water erosion and increasing the rate
of application of nutrients and pesticides, will add significantly
to the environmental problems produced by agriculture.
B. Food and Kindred Products
The food and kindred products industry (SIC 20) manufactures or
processes foods and beverages for human consumption, vegetable and
animal oils and fats, and prepared feeds for livestock. National-
ly, the industry is the second largest point source of BOD behind
municipal wastewater and also produces large quantities of water-
borne nutrients, suspended solids, coliforms, and oil and grease.
Some processing plants also produce disagreeable odors.
In 1978, earnings from the industry ranked fourth (2.4 billion
dollars) and third (1.6 billion dollars) among all manufacturing
sectors in regions 4 and 6, respectively. The Sunbelt industry had
a share of the national industry (22 percent) very similar to the
Sunbelt share of national agricultural production (28 percent).
The industry was widely dispersed, but with concentrations in
Texas, along the South Atlantic Coast from North Carolina to
Florida, and in Tennessee.
Industry earnings are projected to grow more rapidly than agri-
cultural production but less rapidly than Sunbelt industry as a
whole—116 percent in Region 4 and 144 percent in Region 6. Growth
rates are projected to be relatively uniform among the 13 Sunbelt
states. Absolute growth, however, is projected to be greatest in
regions of current high production (Texas, the South Atlantic
Coast, and in Arkansas).
C. Paper and Allied Products
The paper and allied products industry (SIC 26) manufactures
pulp, paper and paperboard, and bags, boxes, and envelopes. Na-
tionally, the paper and allied products industry is the third
4-19
-------
largest point source of BOD, behind municipal wastewater and food
processing, and a large point source of suspended solids and coli-
form bacteria. In addition, it discharges waste heat and its
wastewaters contain pH altering chemicals used in processing.
Locally, pulp mills can have a substantial impact on water quality.
Pulping produces significant quantities of carbon monoxide, fine
particulates, and odoriferous sulfur bearing compounds. The
industry as a whole is a significant producer of industrial solid
waste and hazardous waste (see Chapter 10).
In 1978 the paper and allied products industry ranked eighth
(1.6 billion dollars) and eleventh (0.1 billion dollars) among man-
ufacturing sectors in earnings in regions 4 and 6, respectively.
This represented 26 percent of national earnings in the industry.
The industry has typically located along the coasts and the major
rivers of the forested eastern two-thirds of the study area from
eastern Texas and Oklahoma to the Atlantic.
Earnings in the industry are projected to grow more rapidly in
Region 6 (241 percent) than in Region 4 (170 percent) over the per-
iod 1978 to 2010, but the absolute increase is projected to be al-
most twice as large in Region 4. Both absolute growth in earnings
and 2010 earnings are projected to be largest in Texas and Georgia,
with smaller concentrations in North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama,
Arkansas, and Louisiana.
4.4.6 Metal and Nonmetal Mining
Metal mining (SIC 10) and nonmetal mining (SIC 14) includes
the exploration for and mining of metallic ores and nonmetals,
including primary preparation such as washing, crushing, grinding,
and beneficiation of mined products. Such mining is a small and
localized sector within the Sunbelt and is not included as one of
the major industrial driving forces. However, because it is so
localized, and often environmentally disruptive, it is important
in a few areas within the South. Environmental problems include
extensive surface disruption, disposal of spoils, production of
airborne particulates and waterborne suspended solids and dis-
solved solids.
New Mexico dominates, and is projected to continue to domi-
nate, the Sunbelt's production of minerals, with significant out-
put of copper and uranium plus some silver and gold (Oxford
Regional Economic Atlas, 1975). In 1978, the state produced 82
percent of Sunbelt and 12 percent of U.S. earnings in metal min-
ing. Industry earnings in New Mexico are projected to increase
by 275 percent between 1978 and 2010 and to represent 21 percent
of the increase in U.S. earnings in the industry.
Florida, Georgia, and Texas dominate the pattern for mining
nonmetallic minerals. The South Texas Coast is the site of major
4-20
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Frasch process sulfur mines and Florida has large phosphate mining
centers (Oxford Regional Economic Atlas, 1975). Earnings in these
three states in this industry are projected to grow by 90 to 160
percent over the period 1978 to 2010, representing about half of
projected Sunbelt and 18 percent of projected U.S. earnings in-
creases .
4.5 REGIONS OF CONCENTRATED INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY
The columns of Table 4-5 can be used as one means to identify
states with the potential to experience significant environmental
impacts in the future from a wide range of manufacturing, mining,
and agricultural industries. As mentioned before, however, this
approach does have limitations. The lack of potential impacts from
a variety of industries does not mean impacts from a few industries
are not severe, and the fact that a state does not have a large
share of the southern industry does not mean significant concentra-
tions of the industry do not occur within the state.
Texas and Louisiana in Region 6 and Florida, Georgia, North
Carolina, and Tennessee in Region 4 stand out as states predicted
to have large concentrations of a wide variety of environmentally
significant industries. The Texas/Louisiana center is projected to
be characterized by concentrations of the core manufacturing sec-
tors of metals, machinery, and transportation equipment; the pulp
and paper industry; and the full range of petroleum and natural gas
based industries from extraction, to refining, to manufacture into
chemicals, plastics, and rubber. In addition, Texas—but not
Louisiana—is projected to have concentrations of agriculture, food
processing, nonmetal mining, and stone, clay, and glass manufac-
ture. The North Carolina/Georgia/Tennessee center is projected to
also be characterized by concentrations of the core manufacturing
sectors; the pulp and paper industry; food processing; and stone,
clay, and glass manufacture. It is differentiated from the Texas/
Louisiana center by the presence of only the later chemical, plas-
tic, and rubber manufacturing stages of the petroleum based group
of industries and by the importance of the textile industry. Flor-
ida is projected to contain concentrations of the core manufactur-
ing sectors; agriculture; food processing; nonmetal mining; and
stone, clay, and glass manufacture. It is distinguished from the
other two centers by the relative unimportance of the petroleum-
based industries, textiles, and pulp and paper.
If the above analysis were based not on the projected size of
the industry in 2010, but on the projected absolute change in earn-
ings between 1978 and 2010, the results would be very similar.
States projected to see the greatest increases in a wide variety of
environmentally significant industrial activities include Texas/
Louisiana in Region 6 and Tennessee/North Carolina/Georgia/Florida
in Region 4. However, Kentucky would also be included in the
4-21
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Tennessee/North Carolina/Georgia group; its growth would be
characterized by increases in core manufacturing, petroleum refin-
ing, rubber manufacture, agriculture, and coal mining. Tennessee,
which was already highly industrialized in 1978, would be less pro-
minent because the change in, as opposed to size of, industries
such as primary and fabricated metals and food processing would be
smaller than in other states.
4.6 SUMMARY
The Sunbelt will see great industrial growth in all sectors
over the next 30 years. Growth rates in almost all sectors are
projected to be significantly above U.S. averages and absolute in-
creases are projected to be above increases in most of the other
regions of the country. As in the rest of the nation, services
will become increasingly more important in the Sunbelt economy.
In contrast to the nation as a whole, where manufacturing is pro-
jected to decrease in relative importance, manufacturing in the
Sunbelt is projected to continue to grow rapidly and to maintain
its share of the regional economy. Mining (i.e., coal mining in
the eastern Sunbelt and oil and gas production in the west) will
continue to be a very important part of the regional economy.
This industrial growth will bring important and much desired
benefits to the South. Employment to population ratios, wage
rates, and per capita incomes are all expected to increase to near
national averages (see Chapter 3). Outmigration and population
decline in many areas of the South are becoming trends of the past.
The magnitude of projected industrial growth also creates the
potential for significant environmental change, however. Growth
within a number of industrial sectors—selected on the basis of
their size, projected growth, and production of undesirable wastes
—present the greatest potential problems. These sectors include
primary and fabricated metals; machinery and transportation equip-
ment manufacture; the energy mineral-based industries including
coal, petroleum, and gas extraction and processing into fuels,
chemicals, plastics, and rubber; textiles; agricultural and forest
production; food processing; and pulp and paper manufacture.
States projected to include large concentrations or to experience
major change in a wide variety of these industries include
Louisiana and Texas in Region 6 and Tennessee, Kentucky, North
Carolina, Georgia, and Florida in Region 4.
Certain of the industries identified in this chapter stand out
as key driving forces projected to have the potential to create
significant environmental changes in the Sunbelt. The current sta-
tus of, projected trends in, and environmental problems associated
with some of these industries are examined in more detail in Volume
II. The two most important of these industries are energy produc-
tion (Chapter 6) and chemical manufacture (Chapter 7). The South
4-22
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has traditionally been a major supplier of energy to the nation.
It has a large share of national reserves of fuel minerals; with
the growth of both the regional and the national economy, the ex-
traction of these fuels and their conversion to usable gases, liq-
uids, solids, and electricity will be a major source of air and
water pollution, solid and hazardous wastes, and land surface dis-
ruption. The chemical industry will continue to be one of the most
important and most rapidly growing Sunbelt industries. Although in
recent years it has been one of the largest stationary sources of
air and water pollutants in the South, the large volume of hazard-
ous wastes produced by the industry and their safe disposal will
continue to be one of the most serious environmental problems fac-
ing the Sunbelt.
Other key driving forces include agricultural and forest pro-
duction (Chapter 9), the textile industry (Chapter 8), and the pulp
and paper industry (Chapter 10). Although earnings in agricultural
and forest production are not projected to grow as rapidly as in
other sectors, the number of acres of land affected may be large.
These activities are already the source of tremendous quantities of
waterborne suspended particulates, nutrients, BOD, coliforms, and
pesticides. The textile industry is one of the largest manufactur-
ing industries in the South and is projected to double over the
next 30 years. Although it produces water pollutants such as BOD,
solids, and waste heat, the major concern is the rapidly changing
character of hazardous process chemicals and heavy metals used by
the industry that may be disposed of in wastewater streams or as
hazardous wastes. The concentration of both current production and
anticipated growth in this industry in the three state North
Carolina/South Carolina/Georgia area intensifies the concerns asso-
ciated with textile manufacturing. Finally, the pulp and paper in-
dustry will continue to be an important and growing manufacturing
industry in the Sunbelt because of the extent and productivity of
southern forests. The industry is a major source in the Sunbelt of
a wide variety of wastes, including waterborne BOD and suspended
solids and odoriferous compounds.
4-23
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REFERENCES
Center for Environmental Reporting. 1979. Environmental Statis-
tics, 1978, prepared for Council on Environmental Quality.
Springfield, Va.: National Technical Information Service.
Nemerow, Nelson L. 1978. Industrial Water Pollution; Origins,
Characteristics, and Treatment. Reading, Mass.: Addison-
Wesley.
Oil and Gas Journal, November 20, 1978, p. 212.
Oil and Gas Journal, October 5, 1981, p. 231.
Oxford Regional Economic Atlas; The United States and Canada,
2nd ed. 1975. London: Oxford University Press.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
1980. Regional Economic Projections. Washington, B.C.: BEA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Air, Noise,
and Radiation; Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
1980. 1977 National Emissions Report. Washington, B.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research and
Bevelopment (ORD), Strategic Analysis Group. 1980. Environ-
mental Outlook 1980. Washington, B.C.: Government Printing
Office.
U.S., Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and
Budget (OMB). 1972. Standard Industrial Classification Man-
ual; 1972. Washington, B.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and
Budget (OMB). 1977. Standard Industrial Classification
Manual; 1977 Supplement. Washington, B.C.: Government
Printing Office.
U.S., Water Resources Council. 1978. The Nation's Water Resources
1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment. Washington, B.C.:
Government Printing Office.
4-24
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TABLE 4-A1:
REGIONS 4 AND 6 DURABLE MANUFACTURING EARNINGS BY INDUSTRY BY
STATE—1978 and 2010a
*>.
I
K)
tn
Lumber Products
Furniture & Fixtures
Stone, Clay &
Glass Products
Primary Metals
Fabricated metals
Machinery
(Including electric)
Transportat 1 on
Equ I pment ( f nc 1 ud i ng
motor vehicles)
1 nstruments
Mi seel laneous
Manufacturing
Source: Calculated from
AL
243
705
462
53
191
138
106
352
246
672
1,738
1,066
241
756
515
290
1,511
1,221
230
b
—
33
212
179
30
78
48
U.S.,
FL
179
528
349
76
245
169
211
836
625
47
219
172
315
1,182
867
815
3,203
2,388
517
1,374
857
94
632
538
54
126
72
GA
237
649
412
65
158
93
167
501
334
177
725
548
188
552
364
344
1,171
827
484
1,268
784
31
104
73
49
117
68
Department of
KY
90
207
117
47
94
47
99
326
227
274
868
594
223
721
498
871
2,962 2,
2,091 2,
263
1,190
927
28
218
190
31
79
48
Commerce,
MS
207
605
398
116
354 1,
238 1,
72
260
188
30
145
115
98
450 1,
352
315
320 3,
005 2,
314
870
556
13
38
25
31
117
86
Bureau
NC
274
457
183
561
628
067
167
612
445
83
280
197
248
171
923
878
218
340
124
663
539
96
393
297
35
108
73
of
SC
125
313
188
35
101
66
114
359
245
67
402
335
127
618
491
435
1,196
761
40
85
45
45
210
165
30
66
36
Econom i c
TN
154
284
130
170
444
274
198
771
573
241
718
477
323
1,143
820
703
3,234 1,
2,531
271
1,269
998
54
268
214
84
289
205
Analysis
AR
184
427
243
84
181
97
49
149
100
92
389
297
125
408
283
322
202 1
880 1
70
254 1
184
54
132
78
28
55
27
(BEA)
LA MM
145 25
321 76
176 51
8 2
14 4
6 2
96 25
321 105
225 80
107 15
830 178
723 163
187 13
725 50
538 37
232 52
,717 237
,485 185
277 31
,109 1)7
832 86
11 2
62 27
51 25
10 15
28 44
18 29
. 1980.
OK
40
130
90
17
63
46
112
404
292
64
216
152
229
988
759
485
2,400
1,915
151
691
540
18
64
46
16
55
39
Regional
TX South
313 2,216
1,053 5,754
740 3,538
132 1,364
451 3,926
319 2,562
434 1,850
1,697 6,693
1,263 4,843
603 2,471
2,623 9,331
2,020 6,860
959 3,276
5,176 13,939
4,217 10,663
2,455 8,197
14,133 39,502
11,678 31,305
1,643 3,693
2,557 12,184
914 8,491
164 643
815 3,175
651 2,532
93 504
390 1,552
297 1,048
U.S.
7,375
18,047
10,672
3,819
9,457
5,638
7,922
21,563
13,641
18,623
47,401
28,738
18,787
51,159
32,372
50,889
145,376
94,487
30,846
75,446
44,600
7,137
19,904
12,767
3,688
7,547
3,859
Economic Projections.
Washington, D.C.: BEA.
First row (earnings In the Industry in 1978); second row (earnings In the industry In 2010); third row (absolute change 1978
to 2010).
''Data withe Id.
-------
TABLE 4-A2:
REGIONS 4 AND 6 NONDURABLE MANUFACTURING EARNINGS BY INDUSTRY BY
STATE—1978 and 2010a
(millions of 1972 dollars)
AL
Food and Kindred 213
Products 410
197
Tobacco Products b
8
b
Textile Mill 316
Products 600
284
Apparel and Other 262
Fabricated 671
409
Paper and Allied 274
Products 708
434
Printing and 84
Publishing 258
174
Chemicals and 192
Allied Products 630
438
Petroleum Refining b
46
Rubber and 168
Miscellaneous 539
Plastics 371
Leather and Leather 5
Products 1
-4
Source: Calculated from U.
FL
467
1,075
608
17
7
-10
27
106
79
180
419
239
203
417
214
313
1,174
861
301
812
511
20
61
41
111
467
356
19
15
-4
GA
495
1,075
580
b
2
b
912
1,967
1,055
381
892
511
339
921
582
180
560
380
181
656
475
b
53
123
403
280
14
21
7
S . , Department
KY
237
516
279
147
213
66
46
135
89
148
314
166
77
280
203
126
375
249
216
487
271
61
246
185
101
581
480
24
33
9
MS
150
325
175
b
b
b
39
104
65
198
522
324
90
205
115
37
171
134
75
348
273
26
116
90
65
362
297
11
15
4
of Commerce ,
NC
338
757
419
322
474
152
1,759
3,506
1,747
438
1,186
748
252
667
415
152
524
372
411
1,614
1,203
4
9
5
220
947
727
27
59
32
Bureau
SC
112
249
137
4
5
1
1,101
2,233
1,132
242
578
336
174
510
336
54
173
119
387
1,239 1
852 1
4
11
7
147
912 1
765
1
3
2
of Economic
TN AR
377 230
750 681
373 451
15 b
42 b
27
191 31
311 65
120 34
356 73
852 144
496 71
194 158
617 573
423 415
193 64
571 202
378 138
747 92
,953 370
,206 278
10 22
30 47
20 25
256 79
,057 266
801 187
130 43
160 55
30 12
Analysis (
LA
248
531
383
b
b
b
85
54
194
140
215
598
383
73
238
165
511
2,791
2,280
213
649
436
b
58
1
2
1
BEA}, 1980
NM
38
97
59
b
b
6
17
11
15
44
29
1
2
1
21
88
67
6
16
10
18
73
55
1
4
3
3
10
7
t
OK
150
325
175
b
b
10
28
18
62
163
101
26
114
88
82
267
185
39
184
145
129
274
145
111
596
485
3
12
9
Regional
TX South
891 3,944
2,164 8,953
1,273 5,009
1 504
1 766
0 262
47 4,485
83 9,241
36 4,756
413 3,933
1,378 7,359
965 3,426
249 2,250
922 6,535
673 4,285
477 1,855
1,711 6,312
1,234 4,457
1,211 4,368
4,803 15,907
3,592 11,539
813 1,319
1,974 3,589
1,161 2,270
279 1,661
1,312 7,504
1,033 5,843
45 326
74 458
29 132
U.S.
17,467
32,129
14,662
792
1,230
438
6,608
12,778
6,170
7,933
15,831
7,898
8,504
19,856
11,352
11,724
28,916
17,192
14,886
43,562
28,676
3,680
8,792
5,112
7,605
22,760
15,155
1,558
1,839
281
Economic Projections.
Washington, D.C.: BEA
aFirst row (earnings in the industry in 1978); second row, (earnings in the industry in 2010); third row, (absolute change
1978 to 2010).
bData witheld.
-------
TABLE 4-A3:
REGIONS 4 AND 6 AGRICULTURE AND MINING EARNINGS
BY STATE—1978-2010a
(millions of 1972 dollars)
BY INDUSTRY
I
to
AL
Agricultural 411
Production 510 1
99
Coal Mining 177
981
804
Crude Petroleum 6
and 34
Natural Gas b
Metal Mining b
1
b
Nonmetal Mining 22
(excluding 44
fuels) 22
Source : Ca 1 cu 1 ated from
FL
912
,629
717
b
b
b
b
51
b
b
9
b
92
179
87
U.S.,
GA
521
875
354
1
3 3,
2 2,
1
14
13
1
1
0
73
151
78
Department
KY
437
885
448
787
782
995
42
36
-6
b
<1
b
27
61
34
of
MS
416
503
87
b
1
b
103
180
77
b
b
b
11
29
18
Commerce,
NC
1,069
1,572
503
b
1
b
<1
1
<1
b
<1
b
46
86
40
Bureau
SC
213
253
40
b
1
b
<1
19
19
b
b
b
16
38
22
TN
282
296
14
73
416
343
5
3
-2
16
24
8
33
64
31
of Economic
AR
665
828
163
6
17
11
40 1
58 1
18
5
16
11
14
27
13
Analysis
LA
242
460
218
b
b
b
,041
,334
293
b
2
b
b
93
b
(BEA).
NM
160
288
128
b
309
b
b
207
b
148
555
407
40
77
33
1980.
OK
253
510
257
26
58
32
813
1,051
238
b
<1
b
15
38
23
Regional
TX
880
1,524
644
8
100
92
2,787
3,455
668
11
34
23
82
214
132
South
6,460
10,131
3,671
1,079
5,668
4,589
4,834
6,440
1,606
181
641
460
470
1,100
630
U.S.
22,125
35,205
13,080
2,804
19,471
16,667
6,687
11,332
4,644
1,286
3,220
1,934
1,388
3,035
1,648
Economic Projections.
aFlrst row (earnings In the Industry In 1978); second row (earnings in the Industry In 2010); third row (absolute change
1978 to 2010).
bData withe Id.
-------
CHAPTER 5
ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES AND ATTITUDES
HIGHLIGHTS
Status and Trends
1. Support for environmental goals comes from a broad base
in society—sixty percent of Americans surveyed in 1980
expressed sympathy for the environmental movement. How-
ever, the lowest levels of support come from the states
in Region 4—Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and
Alabama.
2. While public opinon data on trade-offs between the envi-
ronment and other issues are ambiguous, there is no
strong evidence that the public wants to sacrifice envi-
ronmental protection in order to achieve economic goals.
For example, the percentage of respondents who believe
that both economic and environmental goals can be met
has grown from 18 percent in 1978 to 75 percent in 1981.
3. Those ranking "reducing air and water pollution" as one
of the nation's three most pressing problems dropped
from 53 percent in 1970 to 24 percent in 1980. This
change represented the biggest shift among all the pub-
lic issues considered. In addition, those who believe
the federal government is not spending enough on the
environment dropped by 14 percent between 1970 and 1980,
from 62 percent to 48 percent.
4. Political trends and public opinion data suggest that
costs will be an increasingly important factor in assess-
ing environmental regulation strategies. Over the past
three years, for example, the position of "holding down
costs rather than requiring stricter controls" gained 14
percent in support, up from 20 percent in 1977 to 34 per-
cent in 1980.
5-i
-------
People expect environmental problems to continue well in-
to the future. Over two-thirds of those surveyed in
1978 believe that air and water pollution will still be
serious problems in the year 2000. Only the West viewed
air and water pollution as more of a problem than did
the South.
Geographic Areas
6. The South Atlantic region believes that significant im-
provements have been made since 1975 in both air and
water quality. In the East Southcentral states of Ken-
tucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama, respondents
perceived an improvement in air quality and some deteri-
oration in water quality, while respondents in the West
Southcentral region (Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and
Oklahoma) perceived water quality as much worse than in
1975.
7. The South, more than other regions of the U.S., appears
to favor development of natural resources for residen-
tial and agricultural use even if it means destruction
of wetlands, wilderness, or wildlife.
8. According to a survey, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi,
and Alabama show less support for the environmental move-
ment than does the rest of the nation.
Key Problems and Issues
9. Regarding the question of the need to cut federal spend-
ing and regulation, public opinion data from a recent
survey commissioned by Union Carbide Company found
strong public support for government regulations which
protect the public. By sizeable majorities, people said
the government should provide even stricter regulations
to protect the work place, the safety of products, and
the environment.
10. The degree of public concern for issues such as toxic
substances, facility siting, drinking water, and air pol-
lution varies considerably. Among these, the strongest
support is shown for maintaining air and water quality.
11. Concern is increasing for pollution from chemical wastes.
Forty-six percent of the people are worried a great deal
about the presence of toxic chemicals such as pesticides
or PCB's in the environment and 62 percent are worried a
great deal about the disposal of industrial wastes.
5-ii
-------
CHAPTER 5
ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES AND ATTITUDES
5.1 INTRODUCTION
Environmental policy occurs within the broad context of
social values and attitudes about the importance of environmental
quality, concerns about economic trade-offs, and the conflicting
pressures of national energy policy. Thus, an important concern
in understanding and anticipating the changes occurring through-
out the Sunbelt is how residents in this area view a range of is-
sues related to their environment and whether or not these views
differ from those of the rest of the nation. The 1970's have
been called the "decade of the environment," reflecting broad
public and political support for protecting and enhancing our
air, water, and land resources and resulting in major pieces of
environmental legislation. Considering the progress made toward
meeting environmental goals during these years and the current
economic concerns of the nation, an emerging question affecting
virtually every issue discussed in this report is whether or not
such broad support for environmental protection will continue,
especially in the Sunbelt where growth and development is occur-
ring at a relatively rapid rate.
This chapter addresses this question by reviewing indicators
of social values and attitudes in order to develop a general pic-
ture about support for the environment and to identify indicators
of potential change in the direction of support. Although a vari-
ety of indicators is discussed, emphasis is placed on recent pub-
lic opinion data; information specific to the Sunbelt has been
highlighted if available. The next section (5.2) presents cur-
rent trends in public opinions about the environment. Three spe-
cific topics are addressed: general attitudes about the environ-
ment; trade-offs between the environment, energy, and economics;
and factors causing changes in environmental support. Section
5.3 provides a brief discussion of other indicators of social
values and attitudes. A final section (5.4) summarizes these
various data with an assessment of the current status of public
support for the environment.
5-1
-------
5.2 PUBLIC ATTITUDES ABOUT THE ENVIRONMENT
5.2.1 Public Opinion Research
Public opinion polls are useful in providing a representative
picture of the nation's attitudes. This is particularly impor-
tant since attitudes can be identified for groups of people who
do not ordinarily participate directly in the policymaking pro-
cess. Ttfhen conducted repeatedly over time and evaluated along
with other indicators, public opinion research can identify
trends or changes in attitudes and characterize the public's un-
derstanding of and concern about public policy issues.
Opinion polls do have some limitations. Bias may be intro-
duced if questionnaires are not designed and tested carefully;
care must be taken to assess respondents' level of information
about current issues; and the occurrence of key events can alter
the timeliness of the data. Nonetheless, people do hold opinions
which reflect their values and often indicate their behavior.
Thus, current opinion and factors causing changes of opinion are
important policy considerations for public officials.
5.2.2 General Attitudes About the Environment
Although the issues have changed through the years, Americans
have traditionally been concerned about the nation's environment.
For example, by the middle of this century, increasing awareness
of public health benefits from maintaining clean air and water
supplies led to federal legislation establishing nationwide stan-
dards for air and water quality, creating grants for construction
of sewage treatment plants, and providing mechanisms for public
hearings on related problems (Council of State Governments, 1980).
At the same time that air and water quality standards were 1 eing
strengthened, evidence began to accumulate that pesticides and
fertilizers were entering the ecological chain through farming
practices. Rachel Carson's Silent Spring, warning of the impli-
cations of overuse of pesticides such as DDT as well as other
commercial insecticides, fertilizers, fungicides, and herbicides,
was particularily instrumental in alerting the public to these
new dangers (U.S., EPA, 1980).
Other events or episodes which played a role in raising the
public's awareness of environmental issues include the Sierra
Club's battle over dams in the Grand Canyon in 1966; the oil well
blowout in 1969 that spoiled beaches and marine life at Santa
Barbara; the efforts of environmental groups to halt construction
of the Alaska Oil Pipeline; the decision to halt flights of the
SST in the United States in 1977; and the impacts of the Love
Canal hazardous waste disposal site. The Sunbelt has experienced
its share of controversy over such issues as the Miami jetport
proposed for the Everglades, the Cross-Florida barge canal,
5-2
-------
Oklahoma's Black Fox nuclear power plant, and the Tennessee-
Tombigbee Waterway.
Widespread agreement now exists that over the past 30 years,
particularly during the late 1960's and early 1970's, the environ-
ment moved from a position of minor concern as a national prior-
ity to one of primary importance. In 1970, shortly after the
celebration of Earth Day, a Gallup Poll asked a representative
sample of the American public to choose, out of a list of ten
problems, the three which should get the most attention in the
next five years. Fifty-three percent chose "reducing pollution
of air and water" placing it second only to "reducing the amount
of crime" (U.S., CEQ, 1980).
Strong environmental laws have been enacted over the ensuing
ten years, and substantial progress has been made toward meeting
established goals. In addition, issues such as the energy cri-
sis, unemployment, inflation, and the Middle East conflicts have
become increasingly important. Thus, it is not surprising that
the percentage of people who ranked "reducing pollution of air
and water" as one of the top three national problems has declined
from 53 percent in 1970 to 24 percent in 1980. A similar indica-
tion of the public's realignment of national priorities is re-
flected in judgments of the appropriate level of spending for
major policy areas. Over the past eight years support for in-
creasing spending on the environment has dropped by about 15 per-
cent (see Figure 5-1). In 1973, 63 percent of those surveyed
thought we were spending too little on the environment. By 1980,
only about half (48 percent) said that we are spending "too lit-
tle" on the environment. However, only 15 percent believed we
were spending "too much" while 31 percent said the amount was
"about right." The South's opinion regarding the level of spend-
ing for the environment seems to be similar to the national trend.
Even though support started at a lower level of 56 percent in
1973, southern support for spending caught up with the national
level in the 1974 survey and has remained with the trend there-
after (NORC, in U.S., CEQ, 1980).
The public clearly expects environmental issues to be an on-
going problem. When asked to judge the "seriousness of different
problems in the year 2000," most respondents in a national survey
(Roper/ 1978) judged severe air and water pollution and water
shortages as serious problems in the year 2000. Over 70 percent
thought air and water pollution would still be severe problems by
the year 2000, while 56 percent thought that shortages of water
supplies would be severe. Public opinion in the South about this
question was similar to that found nationwide. Only the West
viewed air and water pollution as more of a problem than did
southerners.
5-3
-------
Percent
80 -
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Crime 69%
Drugs 59%
Defense 56%
Health 55%
Education 53%
Environment
48%
• Cities 40%
Racial 24%
Space 18%
Welfare 13%
^ .^——"""' ——•«—» _ • •-—•— Foreign aid 5%
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1980
1. National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago, General Social Survey, personal
interview survey, with an average sample size of approximately 1,500. The 1980 interviews
were conducted in February-April with N=1,468.
"We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or in-
expensively. I'm going to name some of these problems, and for each one I'd like you to tell
me whether you think we're spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the
right amount...."
Figure 5-1: Percent Saying That We're Spending "Too Little" on
Eleven Problems, 1973-80
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 10.
5-4
-------
When people were asked about changes in their local air and
water quality, however, clear regional differences emerged
(Mitchell, R. C., 1981). Although respondents from the South
Atlantic region rated their local air and water quality as the
lowest in the nation, they believed that significant improvements
had been made since 1975 in both air (+8 percent) and water qual-
ity (+10 percent) in their area (See Figure 5-2).^ In the East
Southcentral states, respondents perceived considerable improve-
ment in air quality (+15 percent), but deterioration in water
quality (-2 percent). In the West Southcentral states, some
pessimism is evident about water quality (-6 percent) and air
quality (-2 percent).
In general, the data show that support for the environment
comes from a broad base in society (see Figure 5-3) rather than
from any special geographic or demographic subgroup. Almost two-
thirds (six out of ten) of the public surveyed expressed sympathy
for the environmental movement. Only three groups do not have a
majority sympathetic to the movement—blacks, those without a
high school education, and residents of the East Southcentral
states of Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi (Mitchell, R. C.
1980a). These same southern states also had a relatively large
number of respondents (39 percent) who replied "not at all" when
asked if the term "environmentalist" applied to their interests
(see Table 5-1) as did the West Southcentral states (30 percent) of
Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas.
5.2.3 The Environment Versus Other Public Priorities
As economic conditions have deteriorated, questions about
trade-offs such as the cost of cleaning up the environment versus
the acceptability of some environmental deterioration have become
more important. Considerable attention is now focused on the
trade-offs between specific environmental regulations and other
public priorities such as economic growth, development of natural
resources, and adequate supplies of energy. This is particularly
true in the South where there is less development in comparison
with other regions (except for the Rocky Mountains) and a lagging
income in comparison to the U.S. average (see chapters 3 and 4).
As discussed below, opinions about this issue are mixed both for
the nation and the South.
1To calculate the percent change in air and water quality,
the percentage of those rating present air or water quality at
two or more steps lower (on a self anchoring ladder) than five
years ago was subtracted from the percentage of respondents
rating present air or water quality as two or more steps higher
than five years ago. Those who showed no change or less than two
steps either direction were considered "no change".
5-5
-------
NEW ENGLAND
MIDDLE
ATLANTIC
EAST
ORTH CENTRAL
WEST
NORTH
CENTRAL
WEST
SOUTH
CENTRAL
Much better
EAST
SOUTH
CENTRAL
Much worse
SOUTH ATLANTIC
Balance of Those Who Believe Local Air Quality Has Improved Significantly
In the Last Five Years Minus Those Who Believe It Has Significantly Worsened
NEW ENGLAND
MIDDLE
ATLANTIC
,#L 1 .•*<*. Atf^Vaffffxty-ii^
EAST
ORTH CENTRAL
EAST
SOUTH
CENTRAL
+ 10%
SOUTH ATLANTIC
Balance of Those Who Believe Local Water Quality Has Improved Significantly
In the Last Five Years Minus Those Who Believe It Has Significantly Worsened
Figure 5-2: Rating Improvements in Local Air and Water
Quality Over the Past Five Years
Source: Mitchell, R. C., 1981, p. 12.
5-6
-------
% RESPONSE
10
i
0
i
Nationally:
By race:
By age:
UNSYMPATHETIC
4%S
whit. 4%i
Black 4%G
18-24 2%l
25-34 41
35-54 4%i
55-64 5%8
Over 65 4%l
By education:
Below high school grad
4
High school grad 4%
Some college 6%
College grad 5%
Post-grad
2%i
By income:
Under S8.00O 3%l
$8,000-11,999 4C
$12,000-14,999 3S
$15,000-24,999 4%i
Over $25,000 4°,
By region:
West North Central
2%8
Pacific 6%8
New England 0°
East North Central
Mountain 7%J
Mid-Atlantic 4%I
West South Central 6S
South Atlantic 4S
East South Central 4°
20
i
40
i
60
i
80
SYMPATHETIC
ACTIVE
62%
364%
J43%
367%
id 170%
357%
1359%
1]53%
J48%
J_J61%
J73%
373%
J63%
352%
164%
'67%
168%
J75%
T 171%
_J67%
1365%
364%
364%
1356%
354%
1. RFF survey, Q. 54. In recent years, the environmental movement has been very active. Do
you think of yourself as: an active participant In the environmental movement, sympathetic
towards the movement but not active, neutral, or unsympathetic towards the environmental
movement?
The categories not shown on this figure and the national percentages are:
not sure, 3 percent.
neutral, 31 percent;
Figure 5-3: Views of the Environmental Movement-*-
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1980, pp. 44-45
5-7
-------
TABLE 5-1: SELF-IDENTIFICATION AS AN "ENVIRONMENTALIST"3
Region^
Definitely Somewhat Not at all Not Sure (N)
South Atlantic 19%
East Southcentral 14
West Southcentral 23
Mountain, Pacific 16
East and West
Northcentral 16
New England and
51%
44
46
60
65
25%
39
30
22
16
5%
4
2
2
(523)
(176)
(275)
(519)
(784)
Mid Atlantic
Total U.S.
19
18
50
55
29
24
2
3
(732)
(3,009)
N = sample size
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1980.
aQuestion: "Now I am going to read you some phrases that describe
different kinds of interests people have. As I read each one,
would you please tell me whether it definitely applies to you, or
only somewhat or not at all?...(b) an "environmentalist".
bu.S. Bureau of Census Regions.
A. Economic Costs of Protection
One indicator of public reaction to environmental versus
economic issues is whether pollution controls are perceived to be
worth the costs entailed. Between 1977 and 1980, the percentage
of respondents who said that "protecting the environment is so
important that requirements and standards cannot be too high, and
continuing improvements must be made regardless of cost" declined
from 55 to 42 percent (see Figure 5-4). A recent poll (CBS/NY
Times, 1981) found that 40 percent of the respondents in the
Southl supported this position compared to 48 percent in the East
and West and 46 percent in the Midwest.
Those believing that pollution control "already costs more
than it is worth" also declined 6 percent between 1977 (19 per-
cent) and 1980 (13 percent). Thus, a middle position of "holding
1-The CBS/New York Times Poll defines "South" as Virginia and
the 13-state study region minus New Mexico.
5-8
-------
Ul
I
Pollution control requirements
and standards have gone too far;
It already costs more than It Is
worth.
We have made enough progress on
cleaning up the environment that
we should now concentrate on
holding down costs rather than
requiring stricter controls.
Protecting the environment is
so Important that requirements
and standards cannot be too high,
and continuing improvements must
be made regardless of cost.
Don't know, no answer, depends.
E| RFF survey, 1980.N is 1,576.
H Resources for the Future telephone survey.July-August 1978.N is 1,076.
M Opinion Research Corporation telephone survey.January 1977,N Is 1,003.
Figure 5-4: Views About Pollution Control, 1977-1980
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 13.
Question: I am going to read you three points of view regarding
pollution control. Please tell me which one best represents your
opinion.
-------
down costs rather than requiring stricter controls" gained sup-
port, from 20 percent in 1977 to 34 percent in 1980. The East
Southcentral region consisting of Kentucky, Tennessee, Missis-
sippi, and Alabama was the only one expressing more concern for
holding down costs (49 percent) than for continuing environmental
improvements (34 percent) in 1980 (see Table 5-2). Otherwise
residents in the Sunbelt seem to have much the same priorities as
the rest of the nation.
Some reluctance to weaken environmental control programs in
the interest of the economy continues to show up in the polls.
In January 1979, 62 percent of the respondents in a Harris Poll
favored "a major cutback in federal government spending"; yet 57
percent of the respondents opposed such a cutback if it meant
"cutting back spending for environmental protection." In a
TABLE 5-2: VIEWS OF SUNBELT RESIDENTS ABOUT POLLUTION CONTROL
IN 1980
East West
South South- South-
Statement Atlantic central central
Protecting the environment
is so important that re-
quirements cannot be too
high, and continuing im-
provements must be made
regardless of costs. 42% 34% 47%
We have made enough progress
on cleaning up the environ-
ment that we should now
concentrate on holding down
costs rather than requiring
stricter controls. 32 49 33
Pollution control require-
ments and standards have gone
too far; it already costs
more than it is worth. 15 10 11
Don't know, no answer, depends 12 7 9
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1980.
5-10
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February 1980 Newsweek/Gallup Poll, 87 percent of the respondents
wanted to maintain or increase government spending for water
pollution control programs (U.S., CEQ, 1980). And in June 1981,
58 percent of the respondents agreed that "government regulations
and requirements to protect the environment are worth the extra
costs added to the products and services the average person buys"
while 53 percent opposed "reducing auto-exhaust regulations that
add to the price of new cars" (Newsweek/Gallup). These responses
suggest that the public is concerned about the costs of protec-
ting the environment, but they are not willing to give up gains
already made. This highlights the need for questions which focus
more directly on the relative importance and effectiveness of
different environmental programs.
B. Economic Growth
When given the choice of relaxing environmental standards to
achieve economic growth or accepting a slower rate of growth to
protect the environment, respondents continue to choose the en-
vironment by a margin of 27 percent to 19 percent (see Table 5-3).
TABLE 5-3: VIEWS ABOUT ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION3
Statement 1978^ 1980C
We must relax environmental standards in order to
achieve economic growth. 20% 19%
We can achieve our current goals of environmental
protection and economic growth at the same time. 18 41
We must accept a slower rate of economic growth
in order to protect the environment.
Depends (volunteered).
No opinion, don't know.
N=
58
4
1,002
27
4
9
1,576
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1980.
aQuestion: I am going to read you three statements about environmental pro-
tection and economic growth. Please listen carefully and tell me which
statement you agree with the most.
bORC Public Opinion Index, Vol. 36, Nos. 17 and 18, September 1978. Inter-
viewing took place August 24-30, 1978.
CRFF survey, 1980.
5-11
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However, the margin for this choice has declined since 1978, when
58 percent favored the environment. A larger percentage (41 per-
cent) of respondents in 1980 believed that both goals could be
met than in 1978 (18 percent). In June 1981 (Newsweek/ Gallup)
75 percent of the respondents thought "it is possible to maintain
strong economic growth in the U.S. and still maintain high
environmental standards."
When given the specific choice between a manufacturing plant
providing jobs or a marsh that supports an endangered bird spe-
cies (see Table 5-4), a majority in all regions rejected the
plant and its jobs (Kellert, 1979). The South, however, had the
smallest percentage (51.0 percent) of people in favor of protec-
ting the marsh and endangered birds (Kellert, 1979). The South
also had the smallest percentage (51 percent) of people in favor
of "keeping present air pollution laws even if some factories
must close" compared to 70 percent support in the West, 67 per-
cent), the East and 59 percent in the Midwest (CBS/NY Times,
1981).
C. Development of Natural Resources
When the public was given a choice between development of
natural resources and wilderness preservation, the choice was for
TABLE 5-4: PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD BUILDING A PLANT ON A MARSH
WHICH SUPPORTS A RARE BIRD SPECIES, IN PERCENTAGES3
Region
South
Northeast
Northcentral
Rocky Mountains
Pacific
Agree
To Build
42
40
35
38
38
Disagree
Do Not Build
51
55
61
59
56
Source: Kellert, 1979.
aThe question was: "A large coastal city has an unemployment
problem. A major manufacturer wants to build a new plant on a
marsh it owns which could employ 1,000 people, but conservation-
ists claim this will destroy land needed by a rare bird. Do you
agree that this plant should be built even if it endangers the
bird species?"
5-12
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preservation (see Table 5-5); between wetlands and housing devel-
opment, the choice was for wetlands; and between paying higher
lumber prices or sacrificing some wildlife, the choice was for
paying higher prices.
The South emerged from Kellert's study as slightly more "pro-
development" than other parts of the United States. For example,
a majority (52 percent) of those surveyed in the South favored
natural resource development even if it meant loss of wilderness
and wildlife, while a majority in every other region of the U.S.
supported the preservation of wilderness areas and wildlife (see
Table 5-6).
D. Energy Issues
No area has produced more confusing polling results than that
of energy. The combination of misinformation, disbelief, and
TABLE 5-5: PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD HABITAT PROTECTION FOR WILDLIFE
Statement
% Agree % Disagree
Natural resources must be developed
even if the loss of wilderness
results in much smaller wildlife
population.
I approve of building on marshes that
ducks and other nonendangered wild-
life use if the marshes are needed
for housing development.
Cutting trees for lumber and paper
should be done in ways that help
wildlife even if this results in
higher lumber prices.
Cattle and sheep grazing should be
limited on publicly owned lands if
it destroys plants needed by wild-
life, even though this may result
in higher meat costs.
44
51
39
57
76
20
60
34
N = 2,759
Source: Kellert, 1979.
5-13
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TABLE 5-6: PUBLIC ATTITUDES TOWARD NATURAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
BY REGION
Statement: Natural resources must be developed even if the loss
of wilderness results in much smaller wildlife populations.
Region % Agree % Disagree
South 52 44
Northeast 45 49
Northcentral 41 53
Rocky Mountains 39 57
Pacific 38 57
N = 2,759
Source: Kellert, 1979.
uncertainty which characterizes the attitudes of many Americans
toward the energy situation makes it difficult to find a consen-
sus in public responses to questions on energy. For example, in
the summer of 1979, over one-half of those surveyed (CBS/NY
Times, 1981) still believed that the oil shortage was not real
and over one-third (38 percent) believed that we were completely
self-sufficient for energy needs (Richman, 1979).
Perhaps some of the skepticism regarding the energy shortage
rests in the public's confidence in "American know-how" to pro-
duce alternative energy sources in the short-run. In the spring
of 1979, 86 percent said they were optimistic (evenly split be-
tween somewhat or "very" optimistic) about "the ability of this
country to solve the energy problem by technological discoveries
and development." Just a week later, respondents in another
Harris survey said that: (1) coal would become the chief energy
source for the U.S. in the early 1980's; (2) nuclear and solar
power would replace coal in the late 1980's; and (3) solar power
would emerge as the primary source of U.S. energy in the year
2000 (Richman, 1979).
In 1980, solar energy was chosen by two out of three respon-
dents (61 percent) as one of the top two or three energy sources
preferred for the year 2000. However, the South showed less en-
thusiasm for installing solar energy systems in their homes than
did other regions (U.S., CEQ, 1980), a finding that stands in
contrast to the natural suitability of some Sunbelt areas for
solar energy use.
5-14
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In general, Americans have not seemed to favor protecting the
environment if it means living without adequate energy supplies.
During a seven-year period, from 1973 to 1979, in only one year
(1976) did a plurality choose the environment over adequate ener-
gy supplies (U.S., CEQ, 1980). In 1979, a standoff emerged with
43 percent in favor of protecting the environment, 41 percent in
favor of producing energy, and 16 percent with no opinion ("En-
vironmental Protection," 1979). However, 55 percent of those sur-
veyed in June 1981-(Newsweek/Gallup), disagreed with the statement
that "in order to help solve our energy problems, we should slow
down the rate at which we are working to improve the enviromnent,"
Shortly before the accident at Three Mile Island, the public
seemed to favor constructing new nuclear plants in the U.S. by a
two to one majority (57 to 31 percent). In April 1979, two weeks
after the accident, the public was evenly split on the issue (44
percent for versus 43 percent against). A month later, support
had increased slightly (52 percent versus 42 percent) (Mitchell,
R. C., 1980b). Clear majorities favor restrictions on the opera-
tion of nuclear plants pending implementation of stricter con-
trols (66 percent in favor and 24 percent opposed). Another poll
taken during this time found that, while Americans believed nucle-
ar power to be important for the "future needs of the nation," 62
percent expressed opposition to nuclear power plants in their own
communities as opposed to only 45 percent in 1976 (Gallup, 1979).
The views of residents in the Sunbelt, however, seem to vary
somewhat from those of the rest of the nation on the use of nucle-
ar power in the U.S. (see Table 5-7). The East Southcentral area,
which includes the Tennessee Valley Authority was strikingly less
supportive (7 percent) of constructing more nuclear plants than
other parts of the South (25 and 26 percent) or the nation (23
percent). Almost 30 percent said we should stop building nuclear
power plants. This may not be unexpected considering the fast
rate of nuclear power growth in the TVA area but it certainly
raises questions about the future of nuclear power in that area
(see Chapter 6).
Figure 5-5 shows the willingness of national respondents to
accept each of five different installations—an office building,
coal-fired power plant, nuclear power plant, a large factory, or
a hazardous waste disposal site. The most objections were raised
for the nuclear power plant and the hazardous waste disposal site
while the least were associated with the office building. Only 5
percent did not care how near a hazardous waste disposal site was
located. Coal-fired plants do not seem to create as many objec-
tions as nuclear power plants. While only 28 percent would ac-
cept a nuclear power plant within 14 miles of their homes, 63 per-
cent would accept a coal-fired plant (U.S., CEQ, 1980). These
relative evaluations stand in contrast to what many experts be-
lieve are the actual risks of these facilities; yet citizen
5-15
-------
TABLE 5-7:
VIEWS ON THE USE OF NUCLEAR POWER IN THE U.S.
BY REGION
Statement
South
Atlantic
East
South-
central
West
South-
central
Rest
of
Nation
We should continue to
build more nuclear
power plants as
needed
No more new plants
should be planned
but we should con-
tinue to use the
ones already in
operation and finish
those now under con-
struction
We should stop building
nuclear plants
including those
under construction
and shut down the
existing ones as
25%
7%
26%
23%
49
55
46
46
soon as possible
Uncertain
No Answer
(N)
13
11
1
(523)
29
7
2
(176)
18
9
1
(277)
22
8
2
(2,032)
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1980.
aQuestion: At the present time the U.S. has 70 nuclear power
plants in operation, plus 91 nonplants which are currently under
construction. I am going to read you three statements about the
use of nuclear power in the U.S. With which statement do you
most agree?
5-16
-------
100
90 -
office building/
Disposal site for
hazardous /
waste chemicals /
Large factory /
//Coal-fired
.' /power plant
Nuclear power
plant
Wouldn't Less 1 2 3 4-5 6-9 10- 15- 20- 30- 40- 50 51- 100 101+ Don't
matter than 14 19 29 39 49 99 want
ona way one at any
or the mile distance
other M'le*
Figure 5-5: Cumulative Percentage of People Willing to Accept
New Industrial Installation at Various Distances
From Their Homes
Source: Mitchell, R. C., 1980a.
5-17
-------
perceptions are important considerations in siting industrial and
energy facilities.
E. Chemicals
An increasingly controversial environmental issue is the need
for identification and regulation of chemicals which may serious-
ly threaten human health either directly or indirectly (see chap-
ters 7 and 15). When asked whether government should "wait until
a chemical is already in use and has been shown to present a prob-
lem before taking action" or "conduct an extensive screening pro-
gram to try and make sure all chemicals are safe before they are
used," a substantial majority (82 percent) of the public support-
ed a screening program, while only 8 percent would want the gov-
ernment to wait for a problem (U.S., CEQ, 1980).
When asked what action the government should take regarding
chemicals which may not directly affect human health but create
environmental risks, the respondents gave mixed answers (see
Table 5-8). Majorities favored prohibitions on the disposal of
hazardous chemical wastes in the ocean (57 percent) and the
release into rivers of industrial wastes harmful to fish (70 per-
cent) . However, when asked about pesticides which kill wildlife,
a majority (52 percent) said that the government should control
but not prohibit their use.
Results from a 1980 Roper survey show that disposal of indus-
trial chemical wastes is a problem that worries 62 percent of the
respondents a great deal while, somewhat paradoxically, only 46
percent said that the presence of toxic chemicals such as pesti-
cides or PCB's in the environment worried them a great deal
(U.S., CEQ, 1980).
5.2.4 Future Support for the Environment
Public opinion data are better indicators of the current
status than of future conditions. However, they are useful for
looking at the trends or the direction of change in public atti-
tudes. While the 1970's began with strong public support for the
environment, changing economic, social, and environmental con-
ditions have altered the public's perception of national priori-
ties. Some indicators do suggest that the public's support for
environmental issues may be sliding somewhat as the nation's eco-
nomic problems have worsened and implementing effective environ-
mental regulations appears to be an increasingly difficult task.
This does not indicate that environmental protection is no
longer supported by the public. On the contrary, public opinion
data continue to reflect strong support for the environment as a
broad issue of national concern. What it does suggest, however,
5-18
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TABLE 5-8: SUPPORT FOR GOVERNMENT PROHIBITION OF VARIOUS
CHEMICAL RISKS IN PERCENTAGES3
Risks
Disposal of Using Chemical Releasing
Hazardous Pesticides Which Industrial
Chemical Kill Wildlife to Chemicals Which
Government Wastes in Increase Crop Harm Fish Into
Actions the Ocean Production Rivers
Should prohibit 57 36 70
Impose controls
but not prohibit 29 52 21
Urge companies
to follow
certain
procedures
Take no action
No opinion
6
2
7
6
1
4
5
1
3
Source: Mitchell, R. C., 1980a.
aThe sample size for this question equals 736 since only a sub-
sample was queried. The question was: "Even though human beings
may not be directly affected, there are various risks that some
chemicals pose to the environment. I am going to describe some
of these risks and ask you what action, if any, you think the
government should take.
1. First, the disposal of hazardous chemical waste far out in
the ocean where they harm the ocean environment where they
are disposed (read responses)?
2. What about the use of chemicals such as certain pesticides
which increase crop production but which kill wildlife (read
responses)?
3. And, the current practice of releasing into rivers certain
industrial chemicals which have been shown to harm fish (read
responses)?
5-19
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is that the public has become increasingly aware of the costs of
cleaning up the environment at a time when the economy seems to
be stagnating, energy costs are rising, and threats to national
security seem to be increasing. Given limited resources and
conflicting priorities, the public seems to be saying that it
wants to look more carefully at environmental regulations to be
sure they are effective in accomplishing their goal.
5.3 OTHER INDICATORS OF ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT
Changes in social values and public attitudes toward the en-
vironment can also be determined by looking at such indicators as
governmental policies, environmental legislation, scientific and
technological activities and expert observations. These indica-
tors provide an additional perspective on the question of how
society may respond to environmental problems and issues in the
future.
5.3.1 State Responses to Environmental Programs
Recent environmental legislation has emphasized a joint fed-
eral/state approach to implementing environmental, legislation.
Thus, any changes in the way states respond to environmental pro-
grams can be an important indicator of environmental support. A
recent survey dealing with the states' perspective toward federal
programs (U.S., GAO, 1980) suggests that many states in the Sun-
belt have placed more emphasis on environmental issues over the
past five years (1974-78) than ever before (see Table 5-9). The
head of Georgia's lead environmental agency commented that the
state "moved aggressively to keep state laws consistent with fed-
eral." According to Mississippi's administrator, the state "had
been less environmentally aware than other states, but this
started to change...as indicated by increasing state legislative
support." Louisiana's lead administrator attributed the increased
emphasis to "very great concern over [a] solid waste incident—
snowball effect." Louisiana, in fact, was the first state in the
U.S. to enact comprehensive legislation dealing with hazardous
waste disposal (see Chapter 15). Only Tennessee's lead adminis-
trator reported "somewhat decreased" emphasis over the past five
years and attributed it to the public's concern over "inflation,
energy, and other considerations....Their concern for toxics in
the environment and their effect on health has remained high but
they are confused about them...." Although this administrator
predicted "no change" in Tennessee's decreasing emphasis on the
environment, all other state environmental administrators in the
Sunbelt predicted a continuation or improvement in their state's
attention to environmental issues.
5-20
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TABLE 5-9: EMPHASIS ON ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES BY STATES IN
REGIONS 4 AND 6, 1974-78 and 1979-80
Question: "In your opinion, during the past five years (1974-78)
has your state's emphasis on environmental issues...?"3
Substantially
Increased
(Total N=13)
Somewhat
Increased
(Total N=20)
No
Change
(Total
N=4)
Somewhat
Decreased
(Total N=8)
Substantially
Decreased
(Total N=0)
Georgia
Mississippi
South
Carolina
Arkansas
Louisiana
Alabama
Florida
Kentucky
North
Carolina
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Respondents were the administrators for the states' lead environ-
mental agencies; (N = 45).
Question: "Overall, do you feel that during the next two years
(1979-80) the emphasis your state places on environmental issues
will...?"a
Substantially
Increase
(Total N=l)
Somewhat
Increase
(Total N=20)
No
Change
(Total N=17)
Georgia
Mississippi
North Carolina
Alabama
Florida
Kentucky
South Carolina Tennessee
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Source: U.S., GAO 1980.
Respondents were the administrators for the states' lead environ-
mental agencies; Texas was the only state in regions 4 and 6 that
did not respond; (N = 45).
5-21
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5.3.2 Legislative Activity
Since mid-century, Congress has enacted important environmen-
tal legislation. Air and water quality legislation through the
1950's and 1960's, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)
of 1969, and major legislation of the 1970's such as the Resource
Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, the Toxic Substances Con-
trol Act of 1976, the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, the Clean
Water Act of 1977, and Federal Pesticide Act of 1978 comprise a
substantial body of laws outlining the nation's environmental
objectives and approaches for meeting those objectives (U.S.,
EPA, 1980). An important question for the 1980's is how Congress
will deal with ongoing and new environmental problems.
For several sessions, Congress has debated the issue of clean-
ing up an increasing number of abandoned or unsafe active chemi-
cal dumps being identified across the nation. Congress has now
facilitated clean-up action through use of the "superfund," an
idea first considered as a way of dealing with ocean oil spills.
The legislation assumes that many of the companies that created
these dumps no longer exist, so the fund is to be provided by
both industry and government as a resource for paying clean-up
costs whenever abandoned dumps are found (Mosher, 1980). While
this "superfund" legislation, passed in the last week of the 96th
Congress, is a beginning mechanism for cleaning up chemical
spills and toxic waste dumps, it does not include provisions for
oilspills or for compensating victims of injuries or property
damage.
The Clean Air Act, up for renewal in 1981, has been targeted
by many interest groups for revision. Against the backdrop of a
troubled economy, the choices made about this controversial and
complex statute should provide a strong indication of the mood of
Congress toward environmental protection.
Energy policy is another environmentally-related issue area
which has presented difficult legislative choices. One recent
issue is the proposed legislation to cap severance taxes on
coal. The purpose of the legislation is to keep the consumer's
energy prices down. However, it may be fueling the debate be-
tween energy-producing and energy-consuming states and may actu-
ally work against the nation's policy of increased coal produc-
tion (Tirk, 1980).
Southern senators have generally been in favor of excluding
severance taxes on crude oil and natural gas produced in such
states as Texas and Louisiana from any proposed legislation to
cap such taxes. They seem more concerned about lowering Mon-
tana's 30 percent tax on coal. Montana argues that the federal
ceiling is a violation of the state's right to raise revenue, and
others point out that capping western coal taxes will price the .
5-22
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hign-sulfur eastern coal such as that found in Kentucky right
out of the market (Tirk, 1980).
5.3.3 Regulatory Reform
Efforts have been made over the past several years to hold
down the costs and delays caused by environmental regulation,
while still providing adequate protection of human health and the
environment. President Ford's Executive Order 11821 (November
1974) required "inflation impact statements" for all major execu-
tive agency proposals for legislation and regulations. President
Carter's Executive Order 12044 (March 1978) required an analysis
of regulations with major economic consequences and semiannual
publication of important proposed regulations (U.S., EPA, 1980).
The intent of these reforms was to provide information on objec-
tives and benefits of new regulations, identify sections of the
economy likely to be affected, explore alternative approaches,
and specify the economic effects (Mitchell, M.C., 1980; U.S., EPA,
1980).
The U.S. Regulatory Council composed of 35 officials from
regulatory agencies and the White House Regulatory Analysis
Review Group (RARG) were established to coordinate and direct
these reforms. While efforts to produce cost estimates and in-
depth economic analyses of proposed regulations have made slow
progress, some positive results have been achieved in the devel-
opment of new regulatory strategies. EPA seems to have led other
agencies in "innovative regulatory approaches" such as the "bub-
ble concept" and emission offset banking programs which permit
individual plants greater flexibility in meeting air pollution
standards (Mitchell, M. C., 1980; NCAQ, 1981).
5.4 SUMMARY
This brief look at public attitudes and other indicators of
change in public priorities suggests that, while some social and
economic issues now seem more urgent than specific environmental
issues, strong support still exists for broad environmental goals.
The ambiguity reflected in some of the public opinion data on
"trade-offs" between the environment and energy or the economy
seems reasonable given the scientific uncertainty, conflicting
information, and lack of public understanding surrounding those
issues. In addition, the regulatory framework now in place and
the progress made toward meeting environmental goals have enabled
the nation to turn its attention to other priorities.
Certainly, there is no conclusive evidence that the public
considers human health and environmental protection less impor-
tant than growth and development issues. Some evidence did
5-23
-------
suggest, however, that parts of the study area may be less sym-
pathetic to environmental goals and more supportive of industrial
development than is the rest of the nation.
However, the public responds to new events and changing
needs, both at the national and the community level, especially
for such highly salient issues as safe drinking water or hazar-
dous waste disposal. Therefore, even though substantial support
for protecting the environment exists, anticipating, monitoring,
and understanding changes in social values and public attitudes
needs to be a continuing effort.
5-24
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REFERENCES
CBS News/New York Times Poll, September 22-27, 1981. New York:
New York Times, News Special Projects (mimeographed).
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685.
Clean Water Act of 1977, Pub. L. 95-217, 91 Stat. 1566.
Council of State Governments. 1980. Book of the States,
1980-81. Lexington, Ky.: Council of State Governments.
"Environmental Protection: An Idea that Has Come and Stayed."
1979. Public Opinion 2 (August/September):21-23.
Federal Pesticide Act of 1978, Pub. L. 95-396, 92 Stat. 819.
Gallup, George, Inc. 1979. "Americans Favor 'Go-Slow' Approach
But Continue to Favor Nuclear Power." George Gallup Index,
pp. 1-14.
Kellert, Stephen R. 1979. Public Attitudes Toward Critical
Wildlife and Natural Habitat Issues, Phase I. Report to the
Fish and Wildlife Service, U.S. Department of Interior (Grant
#14-16-0009-77-056).
Mitchell, Michael C. 1980. "National Events in 1979: The New
Austerity Takes Hold." Intergovernmental Perspective 6
(Spring 1980):10-11.
Mitchell, Robert Cameron. 1980a. "Final Results of the Re-
sources for the Future National Environmental Survey for the
President's Council on Environmental Quality." Unpublished
mimeographed questionnaire with summary of responses.
Mitchell, Robert Cameron. 1980b. "Public Opinion and Nuclear
Power Before and After Three Mile Island." Resources,
January/April, pp. 5-7.
Mitchell, Robert Cameron. 1981. "Perceptions of Environmental
Quality," Resources, Spring, pp. 11-12.
Mosher, Lawrence. 1980. "Love Canals by the Thousands—Who
Should Pay the Costly Bill?" National Journal 12 (May
24):855-57.
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National Commission on Air Quality (NCAQ). 1981. To Breathe
Clean Air, Final Report. Washington, B.C.: Government
Printing Office.
National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, Pub. L. 91-190, 83
Stat. 852.
"A Newsweek Poll on the Environment". 1981. Performed by the
Gallup Organization. Newsweek, June 29, p. 29.
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, Pub. L. 94-580,
90 Stat. 2795.
Richman, Al. 1979. "The Polls: Public Attitudes Toward the
Energy Crisis." Public Opinion Quarterly, pp. 576-85.
Roper Organization. 1978. Survey, December 2-9 (Roper Report
79-1). As cited in "Environmental Protection: An Idea That
Has Come and Stayed." Public Opinion 2 (August/September
1979):21
Tirk, Lucy. 1980. "Congress Attacks Western Coal Taxes." State
Government News, September, p. 10.
Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976, Pub. L. 94-469, 90 Stat.
2003.
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1980. Public
Opinion on Environmental Issues, conducted by Resources for
the Future for the CEQ, Department of Agriculture, Department
of Energy, and the Environmental Protection Agency. Unpub-
lished mimeographed report.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Office of Research
and Development (ORD). 1980. Environmental Outlook, 1980.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., General Accounting Office (GAO). 1980. Federal-State
Environmental Programs—The State Perspective, Supplement to
a Report to the Congress, CED-80-106A. Washington, D.C.:
GAO.
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CHAPTER 6
ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
HIGHLIGHTS
Status and Trends
1. The Sunbelt is expected to continue to be a major energy
consuming and producing region. By 1970, the South was
the leading energy consuming region and the area is
expected to account for approximately 37 percent of the
total national consumption by 1995. Between 1977 and
1995, most of the increase in energy consumption is
expected to take place through electricity generation and
in the industrial sector.
2. On the whole, the Sunbelt is an energy exporting region.
While its share of total U.S. energy production is pro-
jected to decline, due primarily to maturing oil and gas
fields and the expanded production of western coal, the
Sunbelt is expected to remain the primary energy producing
region of the U.S.
3. Although the Sunbelt continues to account for a substan-
tial portion of the U.S. petroleum and natural gas re-
serves, the area's reserves are declining. With a net
depletion of reserves in the South and the addition of
large reserves in Prudhoe Bay, the Sunbelt's share of U.S.
crude oil reserves dropped from 74 percent in 1960 to 44
percent in 1980, while natural gas reserves dropped from
84 percent to 65 percent of the total. Although the Sun-
belt's reserves of natural gas liquids also are declining,
the area still contains 78 percent of the total U.S.
reserves.
4. The Sunbelt is a major petroleum and natural gas producing
region. In 1979, the Sunbelt accounted for 60 percent of
the total U.S. crude oil production, 82 percent of the
natural gas liquids production, and 87 percent of the
natural gas production. Production is expected to decline
due to the maturing of the oil and gas fields; however,
this could change dramatically with the use of enhanced
recovery techniques and with production from previously
unexplored areas and from unconventional resources.
6-i
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5. Major increases in wellhead prices have led to unprece-
dented exploration and development activity. In 1981,
45,979 wells (60 percent of the U.S. total) were projected
to be drilled in the South.
6. The Sunbelt contains approximately 26.5 billion tons of
recoverable coal reserves; 75 percent of these reserves
are located in Region 4. Overall, the proportion of U.S.
production from the Sunbelt is projected to decrease
slightly over the next 20 years, from 29 percent to 26
percent. However, absolute tonnage produced in the
Sunbelt is projected to increase by 65 percent--from 240
million tons to 396 million tons in the year 2000.
7. The Sunbelt is expected to experience a substantial
increase in the amount of coal burned for electricity
generation. In 1980, the Sunbelt consumed approximately
200 million tons of coal for electricity generation. In
addition, by 1988, the total annual demand for coal to
supply scheduled new units in the Sunbelt is expected to
reach 249 million tons.
8. Parts of the Sunbelt could be involved in synthetic fuel
production from coal and oil shale. Over 30 projects
using coal as a feedstock are planned or under development
in the Sunbelt, including the nation's two largest experi-
mental plants testing advanced coal-to-liquid processes.
A number of oil shale processing facilities (Devonian
shale) are in the planning stages.
9. The slowdown in construction of nuclear power plants in
the Sunbelt (particularly in Region 4) has not taken place
to the same degree as in other regions. As of January 1,
1981, seven of the Sunbelt states accounted for 27 percent
of the operating units and 31 percent of the U.S. gener-
ating capacity.
10. The Sunbelt with its forests, prime cropland, and long
growing season is an attractive location for the develop-
ment of biomass resources for energy. Although biomass
resources are not expected to make major contributions to
national energy supplies in the next 20 years, locally
important developments are taking place in the Sunbelt.
Wood is the largest potential source of biomass energy and
by 1990 wood could be used to produce about 4.5 billion
gallons of methanol in the Sunbelt. Currently, nearly all
of the proposed ethanol plants in the Sunbelt will use
grain, principally corn, as a feedstock.
11. The South contains about 13 percent (6.7 million acres) of
the total U.S. peat lands, mainly in Florida, Louisiana,
North Carolina, and Georgia. The estimated 14.7 billion
6-ii
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tons of peat reserves in these four states has the poten-
tial for producing approximately 176 quads of energy.
Programs are being developed to determine the feasibility
of using peat as an energy source and the first commercial
program, First Colony Farms, is located in North Carolina.
12. The potential exists in the Sunbelt for the limited devel-
opment of geothermal energy resources, particularly in
Region 6. Hot water and hot dry rock resources are being
developed in New Mexico and geopressured zones are under-
going exploration and development along the Texas and
Louisiana Gulf Coast. These geopressured resources are
particularly attractive because the brine generally is
saturated with natural gas (methane).
• Geographic Areas
13. Texas and Louisiana are the main producers of petroleum
and natural gas in the Sunbelt. In 1979 they accounted
for 81 percent of the crude oil, 79 percent of the natural
gas liquids, and 80 percent of the natural gas produced in
the South.
14. The Gulf Coast areas of Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi,
the Eastern Overthrust Belt, the Deep Anadarko Basin in
Oklahoma, and the Tuscaloosa Trend in Louisiana are under-
going substantial oil and gas exploration and development.
Currently producing areas also are experiencing a high
level of activity. Of the 45,979 wells projected for the
Sunbelt in 1981, 39,402 (86 percent) were expected to be
drilled in Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana.
15. Within Region 4, production of coal from surface mining is
expected to decrease, while underground mining is pro-
jected to increase substantially between 1980 and 2000.
Most of the production will be accounted for by Kentucky.
In Region 6, coal resources in New Mexico and in the
Lignite Belt of Texas are expected to undergo substantial
development from surface mining. Production is projected
to increase from 37 million tons per year in 1980 to 162
million tons per year in 2000.
16. New Mexico is the only state in Region 6 that is not pro-
jected to experience a large increase in coal-fired
electric generating capacity between 1979 and 1988. Of
the 58 new units and 32,651 MW of new capacity scheduled
for Region 6, approximately half is projected for Texas.
17. The distribution of projects in the Sunblet for producing
synthetic fuels from coal is relatively even--18 in Region
4 and 15 in Region 6. However, 52 percent of the projects
6-iii
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are concentrated in Kentucky (9) and along the
Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast (8). Eastern Tennessee,
northern Alabama, and northwestern New Mexico also have
multiple sites.
18. Kentucky and Tennessee are the most likely Sunbelt states
for the development of Devonian oil shale resources.
Together, these states contain an estimated 234 billion
barrels of shale oil.
19. Nuclear power will continue to be an important source of
energy in Region 4, particularly in the area supplied by
the Tennessee Valley Authority and the Carolinas. Al-
though the states in Region 6 are expected to rely very
little on nuclear power as a source of energy, northwest
New Mexico and southcentral Texas are important uranium
mining and milling areas. In addition, the salt domes of
the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast are being considered as
storage sites for high level radioactive wastes.
20. The development of peat as an energy source could take
place along the coastal areas of North Carolina and
Louisiana and in the southern portion of Florida; however,
North Carolina is the most likely area for development.
21. Some areas will be more heavily involved in energy-related
activities than others and could experience multiple
energy developments. For example, Kentucky and the Gulf
Coast of Texas and Louisiana could experience increased
coal mining, synthetic fuel production from coal, oil and
gas exploration and recovery, increased use of coal-fired
power plants, and conversion of biomass to liquid fuels.
In addition, the Gulf Coast has the potential for develop-
ment of geothermal resources.
Key Problems and Policy Issues
22. Fuel switching presents economic and environmental
problems for Region 6, especially in Texas and Oklahoma.
Except for Florida and Mississippi, fuel switching will
not be a major problem in Region 4.
23. The environmental, occupational, and human health impacts
of coal production are expected to increase in Kentucky,
Alabama, Texas, and New Mexico due to expanded production
to meet demands for electricity generation and as feed-
stock for synthetic fuels.
24. Disposition of waste products from various energy develop-
ments and facilities (oil and gas production, nuclear and
coal-fired power plants, synthetic fuel plants, biomass
6-iv
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and geothermal) will be a greater problem in the future.
For example, major waste products include spent nuclear
fuel and low level wastes; scrubber sludge from coal-fired
power plants; brine and drilling mud from oil, gas, and
geothermal drilling; ash and sludges from coal synfuel
plants; and spent shale from oil shale plants.
25. While oil and gas production in the Sunbelt is expected to
decrease, drilling activity is projected to increase—
primarily in Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana. This activ-
ity could lead to such environmental problems as disposal
of drilling muds and brine and potential ground water con-
tamination. For example, in Oklahoma, approximately 300
communities depend on ground water to meet all of their
water needs, and about 80 percent of the water used in
irrigation comes from underground sources. Virtually all
of the ground water to supply these communities and for
irrigation is in the western half of the state, an area of
increasingly heavy drilling activity.
26. Current regulations, particularly the Clean Air Act, could
inhibit the development of the synthetic fuel industry and
make it more difficult to site the increasing number of
coal-fired power plants. Increases in NOX/ SO2, particu-
lates, and ozone could be a problem in the eastern and
Gulf Coast states, thus making siting difficult.
27. The lack of comprehensive government strategy for the per-
manent disposition of spent nuclear fuel and low-level
wastes could have a number of negative impacts. Some
plants are close to exhausting on-site storage capacity.
This will require transportation to an interim storage
facility or shutdown of the plant.
6-v
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CHAPTER 6
ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
6.1 INTRODUCTION
The Sunbelt is expected to continue to be a major energy con-
suming and producing region. For the past 20 years, energy con-
sumption in the Sunbelt has grown at a faster rate than any other
region of the country. Since adequate energy supplies are essen-
tial to population growth and economic development in the Sunbelt,
the region is expected to maintain its position as the leading
energy consuming region, accounting for one-third of the total
U.S. energy consumption.
The oil and gas fields of the Southwest and the coal fields of
the Southeast historically have produced much of the energy con-
sumed in the United States. In order to meet nationwide and re-
gional demands, the production of several resources is expected to
increase. For example, coal production and use is projected to
increase dramatically in the Southwest through the year 2000. The
capacity for producing synthetic fuels from coal and oil shale is
developing in Appalachia, particularly in Kentucky and along the
Texas and Louisiana Gulf coast. While national plans for the use
of nuclear energy have been curtailed significantly in recent
years, the Southeast is moving ahead with the construction of nu-
clear reactors. Due to extensive timberland and prime cropland,
the ability to produce energy from renewable biomass resources is
being developed in many areas of the Southeast. Peat is being
considered as a source of energy in some of the coastal states,
and North Carolina is the site of the nation's first major peat
energy project. Finally, geothermal resources are being explored
and developed in the Southwest as a source of electrical, mechani-
cal, and chemical energy.
These energy developments will not only be important to state
and local economies, but they will increase our ability to pursue
an independent foreign policy, reduce our balance of payments
deficit, reduce our dependence on foreign oil and gas, and ensure
adequate energy supplies for a growing economy.
However, energy developments could be constrained by several
environmental concerns, especially those related to water re-
sources and air quality. For example, southcentral Texas is
expected to experience multiple energy developments (oil and gas,
6-1
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uranium, geothermal, synthetic fuels, lignite) in an area already
suffering from inadequate water supply, ground water overdraft,
pollution of surface water, and along the coast, saltwater intru-
sion. In addition, this area is projected to experience large
increases in sulfur dioxide (802) emissions--as much as 700 per-
cent in the Austin area. This type of situation is not uncommon
in the Sunbelt and suggests the need for policies and strategies
that would allow for development while minimizing adverse envi-
ronmental impacts.
This chapter discusses energy production and consumption
trends in the Sunbelt and provides an overview of the current and
future trends and potential environmental issues associated with
seven energy developments: oil and gas, direct use of coal, syn-
thetic fuels from coal and oil shale, nuclear energy, renewable
biomass, peat, and geothermal resources.
6.2 SOUTHERN ENERGY" TRENDS
6.2.1 Introduction
The South has enjoyed several decades of relatively rapid eco-
nomic development. This growth has, in part, been facilitated by
lower energy costs, as compared to other regions of the country.
This factor, coupled with lower labor costs, has kept the South in
an advantageous position to attract new and expanded industry. In
the future, energy will no longer be cheap nor as readily avail-
able. Thus, the southern economy is vulnerable to economic dislo-
cations caused by sudden increases in energy prices or uncertainty
of long-term energy availability (SSEB, 1981). Nevertheless, this
area is the most important region of the nation in terms of energy
production and resources. For example, the South is the nation's
leading producer of oil, natural gas, and coal and leads the na-
tion in the amount of nuclear-generated electricity. The ability
of the South to maintain its economic growth and competitiveness
in the coming decades depends, in great part, on energy policy and
developments.
As general background to the specific energy resources dis-
cussed in the remainder of this chapter, this section will provide
a brief overview of energy consumption and production trends in
the Sunbelt. Of course, projections about the supply, demand, and
use of energy resources in the future depend on assumptions and
information that become increasingly uncertain over time, includ-
ing: the sizes of the resource bases, the ease with which re-
sources can be discovered, applicable environmental laws and other
government policies, the rates at which proved reserves will be
produced, the costs of recovery operations, and the future process
for various energy forms. Further, the nature and degree of un-
certainty varies substantially among alternative energy resources.
6-2
-------
Therefore, while the following projections are taken from the most
recent data available and can be considered reasonable in light of
current knowledge, the reader should recognize the wide variety of
sources of uncertainty associated with such projections.
6.2.2 Consumption
The demand for energy in the United States increased sporadi-
cally during the 1970's before peaking at about 79 quadrillion Btu
(quads or Q's) in 1979. Most of the growth in energy demand re-
sulted from increased consumption in the transportation sector and
from the generation of electric power. However, during the past
two years energy consumption actually has decreased. Following a
3.5 percent drop in consumption in 1980, total energy requirements
for 1981 are expected to fall another one percent to 75.5 quads.
During the first seven months of 1981, the U.S. used 43.9 quads of
energy, 2.2 percent less than during the same period in 1980 (BNA,
1981).
Historically, the U.S. economy has been based on the use of
increasing quantities of energy for the production of goods and
services and there has been a close relationship between increase
in real Gross National Product (GNP) and energy consumption.
Through the 1970's, and particularly over the past few years,
there has been a dramatic shift in this relationship. Price-
induced conservation and improved energy efficiency have resulted
in reduced energy requirements in spite of the growth in economic
activity. Between 1979 and 1981, total energy demand will have
decreased by 4.5 percent, while GNP increased by 2.4 percent. En-
ergy consumption per dollar of real GNP (1972 dollars) is expected
to decline for the eleventh consecutive year. In 1970 62,400 Btu
of energy was consumed per dollar of GNP; in 1981, it is forecast
to fall to 49,700 Btu per dollar, the lowest level recorded (OGJ,
1981).
While energy consumption will not continue to decrease indefi-
nitely, conservation and increased energy efficiency have reduced
expectations about how much energy will be required in future
years to ensure economic growth. Until recently, it was widely
projected that the U.S. would require 150 quads or more of energy
annually by the year 2000; some estimates ranged as high as 200
quads. In 1979, projections for the year 2000 clustered in range
of 115 to 130 quads. The doubling of world oil prices during that
year caused further cuts in projected demand. In the third Na-
tional Energy Policy Plan, the Department of Energy (DOE) projects
that demand will total about 100 quads in 2000 with a possible
range of from 97 to 107 quads. Similarly, Standard Oil of Ohio
expects demand to reach about 100 quads in 2000 (OGJ, 1981b, p.
149). In 1976, Shell Oil Company estimated U.S. energy demand by
1990 to be about 110 quads; in 1980 they revised this estimate to
84 quads. Exxon recently reduced its forecast for 1990 from 102
6-3
-------
quads to 81 quads. These projections are slightly lower than
DOE's mid-range projection of 87 quads (SNA, 1981b; U.S., Pres.
Comm., 1980).
According to the third National Energy Policy Plan, total U.S.
energy consumption is expected to increase at about 1 to 1.5 per-
cent per year to 2000. However, energy consumption trends will
vary regionally. Figure 6-1 shows regional energy consumption as
a proportion of total U.S. consumption. Energy consumption in the
South has grown at a faster rate than in the other regions of the
nation. In 1960, the South accounted for about 27 percent of the
total national energy consumption and ranked third behind the
northcentral and northeast sections of the country. By 1970 the
South was the leading energy consuming region, and is projected to
continue to increase its proportion of the total U.S. consumption.
The Sunbelt area is expected to account for approximately 37 per-
cent of total consumption by the year 1995. The West is the only
other region that is increasing its share of the energy consumed,
but the rate of growth in consumption is much slower than in the
South.
40 H
.-.-•• SOUTH
""•*—--. NORTHCENTRAL
*~-~^ • NORTHEAST
• ——- WEST
196O 1970 1980 1990 1995
Figure 6-1: Consumptive Energy Use
Source: U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980a; Galliker, 1979,
6-4
-------
While the South has been increasing its share of the total
U.S. energy consumption, the region generally has followed the
national trends with respect to consumption by end-use sector
(Table 6-1). Virtually all of the growth in energy demand during
the 1970's occurred in the generation of electric power and in the
transportation sector. This trend is projected to change some-
what in the future. Between 1977 and 1995, most of the increase
in energy consumption is expected to take place through electri-
city generation and in the industrial sector. Within the Sunbelt,
these two sectors are expected to account for approximately 77
percent of the increase in energy consumption between 1977 and
1995. Both regions 4 and 6 will mirror the national trends, with
the largest increases due to electricity generation.
The mix of fuels consumed can be an important determinant of
economic development and of potential environmental consequences.
As indicated by the data in Table 6-2, the mix of major energy
sources did not change much between 1960 and 1977. Overall, the
South was heavily dependent on natural gas and oil with little use
of nuclear power. However, within the South, there were some
rather significant differences. In 1977 Region 6 relied almost
exclusively on natural gas (64 percent) and oil (32 percent), with
natural gas being the most important source of energy. While 64
percent of Region 4's energy came from these same sources, the
Southeast was more dependent on oil (48 percent) rather than nat-
ural gas (16 percent). Further, about a third of the energy con-
sumed in Region 4 was supplied by coal, compared to only 4 percent
in Region 6.
In the future, the relative mix of energy sources is projected
to change dramatically. In the Sunbelt as a whole, the use of
natural gas and oil is expected to decrease, while the use of coal
and nuclear power increases. By 1995, the mix of major fuel
sources in the South is projected to be virtually the same as the
mix in the nation as a whole. However, differences between re-
gions 4 and 6 will continue to exist. In Region 4, the use of
natural gas is expected to remain relatively stable, while the use
of oil decreases and coal and nuclear power become more important.
Region 6 is projected to decrease its dependence on natural gas
and oil from 96 percent to 63 percent between 1977 and 1995 and
undertake a major shift toward the use of coal.
6.2.3 Production
Even though the United States only has five percent of the
world's population, it consumes 30 percent of the world's energy.
In the last two years, considerable progress has been made in
energy conservation and production. For example, since the cut-
off of Iranian oil in 1979, U.S. demand for oil has dropped two
million barrels per day (MMbbl/d). In addition, U.S. oil and
natural gas production has held fairly steady after years of
6-5
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TABLE 6-1:
GROSS ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY END-USE SECTORa
(quadrillion Btu's)
Region
1960
1970
1977
1985
1990
1995
Region 4
Residential 0.74 1.19 1.26
Commercial 0.39 0.76 1.01
Industrial 1.74 2.55 2.64
Transportation 1.39 2.60 3.41
Electricity
Generation 0.99 2.14 3.18
Otherb
Total0 5.27 9.24 11.49
Region 6
Residential 0.53 0.88 0.99
Commercial 0.33 0.71 0.84
Industrial 3.49 7.04 7.86
Transportation 1.21 2.12 2.98
Electricity
Generation 0.55 1.48 2.26
Otherb
Total0 6.11 12.22 14.95
SunbeIt
Residential 1.27 2.07 2.25
Commercial 0.72 1.47 1.85
Industrial 5.23 9.59 10.50
Transportation 2.60 4.72 6.39
Electricity
Generation 1.54 3.62 5.44
Otherb
Total0 11.38 21.46 26.44
U.S.
Residential 7.18 10.08 10.28
Commercial 4.40 7.37 7.97
Industrial 15.39 23.07 23.22
Transportation 9.64 15.86 19.50
Electricity
Generation 5.73 11.69 15.87
Otherb
Total0 42.36 68.07 76.85
38
06
1.42
1.46
2.74
3.28
4.23
0.09
12.78
1.04
0.75
6.47
2.95
2.80
0.72
14.73
2.42
1.81
9.21
6.23
7.03
0.81
27.51
10.57
7.13
20.09
18.27
19.75
2.43
78.24
22
26
3.47
4.99
0.09
14.45
1.09
0.82
8.06
3.06
2.86
0.71
16.60
2.51
2.04
11.32
6.53
7.85
0.80
31.05
10.66
7.63
23.67
18.61
22.64
2.49
85.70
39
71
63
5.58
0.08
15.85
1.12
0.89
8.82
3.15
3.56
0.47
18.01
2.58
2.28
12.53
6.78
9.14
0.55
33.86
10.62
8.09
25.98
18.65
25.33
2.33
91.00
Source: Historical data computed from Galliker/ 1979.
from U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980a.
Projections computed
aThe projections do not include solar or geothermal in electricity generation
or synthetic fuels consumption. Including these end users, the total gross
energy consumption for the U.S. in 1985 is 78.51 Q's; 1990, 86.89 Q's; 1995,
93.52 Q's.
^Includes refinery oil product consumption and refinery gas consumption.
cColumns may not add to totals due to independent rounding.
6-6
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TABLE 6-2:
ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY MAJOR FUEL SOURCES3
(percent)b
Region
Region 4
Natural Gas
Oilc
Coal
Nuclear
( Quads )
Region 6
Natural Gas
Oilc
Coal
Nuclear
( Quads )
Sunbelt
Natural Gas
Oilc
Coal
Nuclear
(Quads)
U.S.
Natural Gas
Oilc
Coal
Nuclear
(Quads)
1960
22
45
32
— -
4.64
66
33
1
—
4.81
44
39
17
—
9.45
28
45
27
_-
37.34
1970
26
42
31
<1
8.45
74
24
2
—
9.97
52
32
15
<1
18.42
36
42
22
<1
60.17
1977
16
48
30
6
10.58
64
32
4
<1
12.27
41
39
16
3
22.85
29
46
21
4
68.6
1985
19
33
36
13
12.40
53
27
18
2
14.67
37
29
26
7
27.07
30
36
27
7
75.09
1990
16
29
39
15
13.92
46
26
24
3
16.24
32
28
31
9
30.16
27
33
31
10
82.51
1995
15
29
40
17
15.42
40
23
32
5
17.69
28
25
36
10
33.11
25
29
35
10
87.65
Source: Historical data computed from Galliker, 1979.
from U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980a.
Projections computed
aThis does not include hydroelectric, solar, geothermal or synthetic fuels
consumption. The U.S. total fuel use from all sources is projected to be
78.51 Q's in 1985; 86.89 Q's in 1990; 93.52 Q's in 1995.
^Columns may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
C0il includes distillate, residual, gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum.
6-7
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decline (Hartley, 1981). Thus, we not only began to use less, but
also to produce a larger proportion of the oil and gas we use.
While the overall energy picture is getting better at the
national level, most states will remain net importers of energy.
Although the Sunbelt is very diverse and includes both energy ex-
porting and energy importing states, on the whole it is an energy
exporting region. In 1979, this region produced approximately 60
percent of the nation's crude oil, 82 percent of the natural gas
liquids, 87 percent of the natural gas, and 29 percent of the
coal. On the other hand, in 1977 the Sunbelt states accounted for
approximately 28 percent of the U.S. crude oil consumption, 47
percent of the natural gas consumption, and 25 percent of the coal
consumption. The energy producing character of the Sunbelt is due
to Kentucky, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas; the re-
maining states are net energy consumers (Boercker et al., 1977).
The South's share of the total U.S. energy production is projected
to decline over the coming decades, due primarily to the maturing
of the oil and natural gas fields and the expanded production of
western coal. Nevertheless, the South is expected to remain the
primary energy producing region of the U.S.
In the future, greater reliance will be placed on electricity
to replace fuel forms either too costly or which have an uncertain
supply availability. Although the rate of growth in demand has
slowed dramatically compared to the past several decades, electri-
city will remain a key energy form for the South and significant
amounts of new generating capacity will be needed. In 1980, the
South accounted for 35 percent of the total U.S. electricity gen-
eration capacity; 58 percent of the South's capacity is located in
Region 4 (Table 6-3). Of the new capacity projected to be ready
for commercial service by 1990, 52 percent will be in the South.
None of the new power plants will use natural gas and only 12 of
the 181 projected units are to use oil. Almost all of the future
electricity generating capacity will rely on coal and nuclear
power—94 percent of the new capacity in Region 4 and 98 percent
of the capacity in Region 6. However, the relative mix of the
fuels will differ significantly between the two areas. Within
Region 4, 50 percent of the new capacity will be nuclear and 44
percent is projected to be coal. On the other hand, Region 6 will
be much more dependent on coal (69 percent) rather than nuclear
(29 percent) for new generating capacity.
Overall, while total demand for energy in the South is pro-
jected to grow at a slower pace than in recent years, it will con-
tinue to grow. Energy production is expected to be adequate
throughout the 1980's, although the possibility of spot shortages
of certain fuels exists (SSEB, 1981).
6-8
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TABLE 6-3:
ELECTRICITY GENERATION:
FUEL TYPE
CAPACITY AND UNITS BY
1980
Capacitya
Region (megawatts)
Region 4
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydroelectric
Nuclear
Other
Total
Region 6
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydroelectric
Nuclear
Other
Total
Sunbelt
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydroelectric
Nuclear
Other
Total
U.S.
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydroelectric
Nuclear
Other
Unknown
Total
65,096
26,823
5,639
12,586
15,908
716
126,768
19,674
5,071
60,040
2,574
1,861
1,390
90,610
84,770
31,894
65,679
15,160
17,769
2,106
217,378
253,069
148,084
76,454
76,407
57,859
4,592
22
616,487
Number
of
Units
265
456
121
519
18
9
1,388
42
189
737
115
2
12
1,097
307
645
858
634
20
21
2,485
1,333
4,529
1,700
3,209
74
65
12
10,922
Projected
Additional
Capacity*5
(megawatts)
34,387
1,490
0
2,618
39,094
0
77,589
23,614
190
0
680
9,867
0
34,351
58,001
1,680
0
3,298
48,961
0
111,940
120,528
7,705
546
16,719
66,599
2,155
350
214,602
Number
of
Additional
Units
55
9
0
25
32
0
121
40
3
0
7
10
0
60
95
12
0
32
42
0
181
230
101
6
141
105
21
6
610
Source: U.S., DOE, EIA, 1981a.
alncludes existing, standby, and shutdown units.
^Capacity scheduled for commercial service through 1990,
6-9
-------
6.3 PETROLEUM1 AND NATURAL GAS
6.3.1 Introduction
The United States is heavily dependent on petroleum and nat-
ural gas and will remain so through the end of this century. The
Sunbelt, particularly Region 6, is a major petroleum and natural
gas producing and consuming region. While the Sunbelt's contribu-
tion to the total U.S. production of petroleum and natural gas
will remain substantial, production is expected to continue to
decline gradually over time. At the same time, consumption of
petroleum and natural gas in the Sunbelt is projected to decline
--from 80 percent of total energy consumption in 1977 to 53 per-
cent in 1995.
This section will discuss the availability of petroleum and
natural gas resources in the Sunbelt and highlight the current and
future status of production and exploration activities. The sec-
tion will conclude with a brief discussion of some of the environ-
mental issues associated with the development of petroleum and
natural gas resources.
6.3.2 Resource Distribution
Prior to the Arab oil embargo, little attention was given to
the fact that the petroleum and natural gas resources in the
United States were limited and not renewable. Since that time,
considerable effort has been devoted to assessing the remaining
resources and the consequences for future production. Table 6-4
presents the status of proved reserves of petroleum and natural
gas in the Sunbelt and the U.S. for the past 20 years. For the
past 10 years, oil and gas reserves in the U.S. have been declin-
ing steadily. However, increased drilling activity has helped
stabilize U.S. reserves during the past couple of years. For
example, proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas liquids, and
natural gas were almost unchanged in 1980 compared with 1979; re-
serves of crude oil and natural gas declined by less than 1 per-
cent, while natural gas liquids increased by 2 percent (BNA,
1981c).
The Sunbelt has accounted for a major portion of the U.S. pe-
troleum and natural gas reserves. In 1960, this area contained
approximately 74 percent of the proved reserves of crude oil in
the U.S. With a net depletion of reserves in the South and the
addition of large crude oil reserves in Prudhoe Bay, the Sunbelt's
•'-Proved reserves are identified deposits of resources that
are recoverable using current technology and under present eco-
nomic conditions. Petroleum includes crude oil and natural gas
liquids.
6-10
-------
TABLE 6-4: PROVED RESERVES** OF PETROLEUMb AND NATURAL GAS
Crude Oil
(million barrels)
Natural Gas Liquids
(million barrels)
Natural Gas
(billion cubic feet)
Region
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Kentucky
Mississippi
Total
Re gion 6
Arkansas
Louisiana"3
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas'3
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
1960
c
c
129
407
536
302
4,785
1,084
1,791
14,758
22,720
23,256
31,613
1970
65
c
61
355
481
130
5,710
761
1,351
13,195
21,147
21,628
39,001e
1980
54
134
35
202
425
107
2,751
547
930
8,206
12,541
12,966
29,805
1960
c
c
49
36
85
27
1,433
485
338
3,596
5,879
5,964
6,816
1970
21
c
48
23
71
12
2,567
559
359
3,330
6,827
6,898
7,703
1980
226
27
25
20
298
16
1,346
541
604
2,452
4,959
5,257
6,728
1960
c
c
1,144
2,542
3,686
1,460
63,386
15,604
17,311
119,489
217,250
220,936
263,759
1970
162
c
978
1,334
2,474
2,581
82,957
13,290
16,954
106,353
222,135
224,609
290,746f
1980
636
84
508
1,769
2,997
1,774
47,325
13,287
13,138
50,287
125,811
128,808
199,021f
Source: U.S., DOI, BuMines, 1961, Vol. 2; API, 1971; OGJ, 1981c.
aProved reserves are those resources at the end of any given year which geological and engineering data
demonstrate can be removed from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.
"Petroleum includes crude oil and natural gas liquids.
cData not available or not disaggregated.
^Includes offshore reserves.
elncludes 10.1 billion barrels of estimated proved reserves in Prudhoe Bay discovered in 1968. These
reserves not available until completion of the Alaska pipeline in 1977. These reserves also are in-
cluded in the 1980 total.
fIncludes 26 trillion cubic feet of estimated proved reserves in Prudhoe Bay discovered in 1968. These
reserves are not yet available due to lack of transportation facilities.
-------
share of the total U.S. proved reserves dropped to 44 percent by
1980.
Although total U.S. crude oil reserves were only reduced by
five million barrels (MMbbl) during 1980, the Sunbelt reserves
were reduced by 218 MMbbl.1 Only Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, and
Kentucky did not have a net reduction in reserves. Together, they
accounted for a 25 MMbbl increase. Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma
continue to account for most of the Sunbelt reserves—92 percent
of the crude oil reserves in 1980, down only slightly from 94 per-
cent in 1960.
Although the Sunbelt's reserves of natural gas liquids also
are declining, the area still contains 78 percent of the total
U.S. reserves. Most of the South's reserves, 72 percent, are
accounted for by Texas and Louisiana, however, the proportion
located in these states is declining. In 1980, the natural gas
liquids reserves in Texas and Louisiana were reduced by 30 MMbbl
and 78 MMbbl respectively. Oklahoma, on the other hand, increased
its reserve base by 21 MMbbl and now accounts for 10 percent of
the reserves, compared to 5 percent 10 years ago. Overall, the
Sunbelt experienced a net reduction of 55 MMbbl of natural gas
liquids during 1980, while proved reserves for the U.S. as a whole
increased by 113 MMbbl.
Natural gas reserves have followed the same general decline as
the reserves of crude oil and natural gas liquids. Including 26
trillion cubic feet (tcf) of estimated reserves in Prudhoe Bay,
the total U.S. proved reserves of natural gas amounted to approxi-
mately 199 tcf in 1980. The Sunbelt states accounted for 65 per-
cent of these reserves; 19 percent less than their share in 1960.
Ninety-eight percent of the reserves in the Sunbelt are located in
Region 6. Together, Texas (39 percent) and Louisiana (37 percent)
account for 76 percent of the reserves, while New Mexico and Okla-
homa each contain another 10 percent.
During 1980, the total base of natural gas reserves in the
U.S. declined by 1.98 tcf. The Sunbelt reserves, however, de-
clined by 6.2 tcf. This was due, in large part, to a reduction of
5.45 tcf of reservesalmost evenly divided between Texas and Louis-
iana.
There is a possibility that total natural gas resources far
exceed any previous estimates. For many years it was assumed that
natural gas stopped at about the same depth as oil. Today, nat-
ural gas is being discovered at much greater depths and new finds
are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Exploration in the
discussion of changes in Sunbelt reserves of crude oil,
natural gas liquids, and natural gas is taken largely from OGJ,
1981c.
6-12
-------
Texas and Oklahoma portions of the Anadarko Basin is booming and
the Eastern Overthrust Belt running from Alabama to New York has
been receiving increasing attention. For example, the Anadarko
Basin has been estimated to contain 15 to 100 tcf of natural gas
reserves. Further, the estimates contained in Table 6-4 do not
include estimates of uncoventional natural gas—resources in tight
sandstones, geopressured water reservoirs, coal beds, and other
sources not now being produced on a wide-scale basis because of
economic or technical reasons. The Deep Tuscaloosa Trend in
Louisiana has been estimated to contain as much as 24,000 tcf of
unconventional natural gas resources, or about 1,000 years supply
at current consumption rates (SSEB, 1981).
6.3.3 Current and Future Status
A. Production
In the mid-1970's, many felt that price would largely deter-
mine the level of exploration and development activity and the
rate of production from a diminishing but still very large petro-
leum and natural gas resource base. Since then, however, there
has been a growing awareness that these resources are finite and
and that their production potential is limited. Of course, price
will continue to have a major influence on future investment de-
cisions and the rate of development of future petroleum and nat-
ural gas supplies. However, production must take place within the
constraints of a diminishing resource base and within the techno-
logical and institutional constraints imposed on resource develop-
ment (U.S., GAO, Comp. Gen., 1979).
In 1970, U.S. petroleum production peaked at about 4.1 billion
barrels for the year (Table 6-5). Most of this production, 3.5
billion barrels, was in the form of crude oil. Depsite an upsurge
in drilling activity, production continued to decline to approxi-
mately 3.5 billion barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids by
mid-1977. In 1978, the beginning of production from Prudhoe Bay
reversed the overall decline in U.S. production, but production
from the lower 48 states continued to slide. However, with the
decontrol of crude oil prices in January 1981 and the increased
drilling activity that followed, the general decline in lower 48
crude production is slowing. In 1981, crude oil production actu-
ally turned upward (OGJ, 1981d).
The Sunbelt is a major petroleum and natural gas producing re-
gion and will continue to be an important source for U.S. supply
for the foreseeable future. In 1979, the Sunbelt accounted for 60
percent of the crude oil produced in the U.S and 82 percent of the
natural gas liquids. Although the Sunbelt production of petroleum
in 1979 accounted for a smaller percentage of the total U.S. pro-
duction than in I960, absolute production actually increased, from
2,112 to 2,332 MMbbl. Of the petroleum produced in the Sunbelt,
6-13
-------
TABLE 6-5: PETROLEUM AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
I
M
£>
Crude Oila
(million barrels)
Region
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Kentucky
Mississippi
Tennessee
Totald
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
1960
7
0.4
21
52
0.02
80
30
401
107
193
927
1,658
1,738
2,575
1970
7
3
12
65
0.3
87
18
907
128
224
1,250
2,527
2,614
3,517
1979
19
47
5
38
0.6
110
19
490
80
144
1,016
1,749
1,859
3,121
Natural Gas Liquids
(million barrels)
1960
c
c
3
3
c
6
2
82
28
28
228
368
374
431
1970
0.2
c
3
2
c
5
2
250
49
40
336
677
682
748
1979
c
c
c
c
c
4e
1
120
45
51
252
469
473
578
Net Natural Gasb
(billion cubic feet)
1960
c
c
73
186
c
259
83
3,056
779
994
5,903
10,815
11,074
13,090
1970
c
c
78
133
c
211
182
7,942
1,142
1,725
8,458
19,449
19,660
22,410
1979
87
50
60
182
1
380
110
7,292
1,186
1,862
7,202
17,652
18,032
20,638
Sources: API, 1978 and updates; U.S., DOI, BuMines, 1961, 1971; AGA, 1980; U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980b, 1981b.
alncludes lease condensate.
"Net production includes marketed withdrawals and gas that is ventd or flared. It does not include gas
injected into the reservoirs for repressuring.
GData not available or not disaggregated; together Alabama and Florida produced 4,000 barrels of natural
gas liquids in 1960.
^Total may not add to sum of columns due to rounding.
eCombined production of Mississippi and Alabama.
-------
Texas and Louisiana have been the leading suppliers. In 1979,
these two states accounted for 81 percent of the crude oil and 79
percent of the natural gas liquids produced in the Sunbelt.
At present production levels, the proved crude oil reserves in
the Sunbelt would last approximately seven years, while the re-
serves of natural gas liquids would last about eleven years. Un-
less major new fields are discovered, resource limitations and
technological factors are likely to be important determinants of
future petroleum production from the Sunbelt. In addition, the
economic climate, the price of oil and gas, environmental con-
cerns, and other institutional constraints will affect activity
levels and production rates.
Although the Sunbelt's production of crude generally has been
declining over the past ten years, the area's refining capacity
has been increasing (Table 6-6). In 1969, the South had a crude
oil refining capacity of 5.2 MMbbl/d; by 1981 this was expected
to be approximately 9.3 MMbbl/d. Thus, in 1981, the South ac-
counted for 51 percent of the total U.S. crude oil refining capa-
city.
Not unexpectedly, most of the Sunbelt's refining capacity is
located in the major producing states of Louisiana and Texas. Be-
tween them, they account for 82 percent of the refining capacity
in the Sunbelt and 42 percent of the total U.S. capacity. Primar-
ily due to environmental and regulatory considerations, any signi-
ficant additions to the nation's refinery capacity are expected to
come largely from expanding the existing refineries, rather than
from new refineries built in areas where refining presently does
not exist. Consequently, the outlook for future expansion of the
Texas and Louisiana refinery capacity depends greatly on the cost
of processing crude oil (including the cost of transportation) in
these states as compared to other existing refining centers around
the country (SSEB, 1981).
Historically, natural gas resources were developed in asso-
ciation with petroleum resources. In the early days of the pet-
roleum industry, gas was a by-product that had small markets in
the producing areas and most of the associated gas was flared.
Nonassociated or dry gas reservoirs were, for the most part, ac-
cidental finds in the search for oil. However, long-distance
pipelines and the use of gas as a petrochemical feedstock opened
up vast markets for natural gas.
Nationally, production of natural gas peaked in 1973 at 22.6
tcf and since then has fallen at a rate of about 3 percent per
year (U.S., GAO, Comp. Gen., 1979). In addition to petroleum, the
Sunbelt has been, and continues to be, a major producer of natural
gas. As indicated in Table 6-5, in 1960, 85 percent of the natur-
al gas produced in the United States came from the Sunbelt. In
1979, the area produced 18 tcf and accounted for 87 percent of the
6-15
-------
TABLE 6-6: OPERATING REFINERIES IN THE SUNBELT
Region
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
January
Number of
Plants
5
1
2
4
4
-
1
17
6
17
6
14
48
91
108
264
1, 1969
Crude Capacity
(bbl/cd)b
27,870
3,000
8,600
129,000
168,700
-
27,500
364,670
91,000
1, 191, 150
42,700
449,300
3,126,679
4,900,829
5,265,499
11,575,829
January
Number of
Plants
6
2
2
4
8
1
1
24
4
33
7
12
59
115
139
303
1, 1981
Crude Capacity
(bbl/cd)b
147,235
41,400
28,750
244, 100
371,525
11,900
49,000
893,910
65,200
2,449,274
114,388
567,270
5,259,990
8,456, 122
9,350,032
18,465,399
bbl/cd = barrel(s) per calendar-day. Calendar-day figures are the average
volume a refinery unit processes each day, calculated as the actual total
volume for the year divided by 365.
Source: API, 1971; Cantrell, 1981a, p. 112.
U.S. production. As with petroleum, Louisiana and Texas are the
main producing states. In 1979, these two states produced 70 per-
cent of the U.S. natural gas; with the addition of the output from
New Mexico and Oklahoma, 85 percent of the U.S. production was
accounted for by these four states.
Production is projected to decline slightly due to the matur-
ing of the southern gas fields. However, this could change drama-
tically with the use of enhanced recovery techniques and with pro-
duction from previously unexplored areas and from unconventional
natural gas resources. The Gulf Coast area of Alabama, Florida
6-16
-------
and Mississippi, the Eastern Overthrust Belt, the Deep Anadarko
in Oklahoma, and the Tuscaloosa Trend in Louisiana all have the
potential to significantly increase the production of natural gas
in the Sunbelt (SSEB, 1981).
With respect to future petroleum and natural gas production,
DOE projections (U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980a) indicate a continuing de-
cline in production from the Sunbelt. Due to the way in which the
DOE data are aggregated, it is not possible to get a complete pic-
ture of future Sunbelt production. While most of the major pro-
ducing areas are included in Table 6-7, some significant omissions
should be kept in mind. Most notably, future production from all
of Oklahoma, western New Mexico, and the Texas panhandle is not
included, and the data for New Mexico only pertains to the south-
east portion of the state. Nevertheless, the projected decline in
production between 1985 and 1995 is evident throughout the areas
included. An exception to the general decline in production is a
projection that indicates that Oklahoma's average daily rate of
crude oil production should increase to 531,000 barrels in 1985,
compared with about 430,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) in 1981
(Vandewater, 1982). If this is added to the data provided in
Table 6-7, the portion of the Sunbelt included is expected to ac-
count for approximately 1,435 MMbbl, 50 percent of the U.S. crude
oil production, in 1985.
Although natural gas production also is expected to decline,
even with some major producing areas omitted from Table 6-7, the
South is projected to produce about 71 percent of the interstate
natural gas in 1985. By 1995, production from the areas for which
data were available is expected to decline to about 4.6 tcf and
account for 55 percent of total U.S. production.
More complete data are available with respect to the future
production of intrastate natural gas (Table 6-8). In 1985, the
Sunbelt is projected to produce 5.5 tcf of gas, or 76 percent of
the U.S. production used intrastate. Virtually all of the pro-
jected intrastate gas production in the Sunbelt will take place
in Region 6. Overall, production in the Sunbelt is expected to
drop slightly by 1990 but then remain stable to 1995.
B. Exploration and Development Activities
Major increases in wellhead prices have lead to unprecedented
exploration and development activity. The number of new wells
drilled since the mid-1970's has increased dramatically and cur-
rent activity is the highest in 20 years. In 1980, 64,628 new
wells were drilled, an increase of 74 percent over the number of
wells drilled just 5 years earlier.1 This surpasses a figure
^This includes Alaska and offshore wells.
6-17
-------
TABLE 6-7: FUTURE PRODUCTION OF PETROLEUM AND INTERSTATE GAS
Petroleum
Crude Oil
(million barrels)-
I
I— i
00
Region
W. Texas/
E. New Mexico
W. Gulf Basin
Gulf of Mexico
Totalb
U.S. Total
1985
531
555
192
1,278
2,932
1990
410
481
184
1,075
2,998
1995
366
401
189
960
3,278
Other3
(million barrels)
1985
30
127
86
243
312
1990
21
91
66
178
240
1995
15
70
52
137
206
Total
Natural Gas
(million barrels)
1985
561
682
278
1,521
3,244
1990
431
572
250
1,253
3,238
1995
381
475
241
1,097
3,484
(billion cubic feet)
1985
269
743
1,392
2,404
3,375
1990
301
653
1,008
1,962
3,165
1995
312
625
725
1,662
3,020
Source: U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980a.
alncludes butane, gas liquids, naphtha, and other petroleum products. This does not include production
for intrastate use which accounts for 6 percent of the total U.S. petroleum production in 1985, 8 percent
in 1990 and 10 percent in 1995.
"This is not the total for the entire Sunbelt due to the aggregations used by DOE when making their pro-
jections. The most notable omissions from this table are western New Mexico and all of Oklahoma and the
Texas panhandle.
-------
TABLE 6-8: INTRASTATE GAS PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS
(billion cubic feet per year)
1985
1990
1995
Region 4
Region 6
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
111
5,438
5,549
7,277
113
4,756
4,869
6,811
129
4,734
4,863
6,740
Source: U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980a.
which had stood since 1956, when 58,160 wells were drilled
(McCaslin, 1981a).
Based on a survey of plans of U.S. operators, the industry is
projected to drill 77,264 wells in 1981 (Table 6-9). During 1980,
oil wells accounted for almost two-thirds of the well completions
and this pattern is expected to continue in 1981. Drilling for
gas, which suffers from relatively lower prices and surplus pro-
ductive capacity, is rising, but at a more modest rate (McCaslin,
1981a).
The Sunbelt accounts for a large portion of the drilling ac-
tivity in the U.S. In 1981, 45,979 (60 percent) of the wells
drilled are projected to be in the South. Of these wells, 39,402
or 86 percent, are expected to be drilled in Texas, Oklahoma, and
Louisiana. Almost 80 percent of the 1981 drilling in the South is
targeted for development wells. This activity is directed toward
holding or increasing current production capacity but only occa-
sionally adds significantly to proved reserves via positive revi-
sions or discovery of new reservoirs in old fields. Exploratory
drilling, aimed at adding to reserves, is expected to account for
9,519 of the 1981 wells drilled in the Sunbelt, and almost 60 per-
cent of these wells are projected for Texas.
Although exploratory drilling accounts for a relatively small
portion of the total drilling activity, some significant activity
is taking place in the Sunbelt. For example, nearly 20 percent of
the rigs working in the U.S. today are located in the Anadarko
Basin, which stretches across southwestern Kansas, western Okla-
homa and the northern half of the Texas Panhandle (McCaslin,
6-19
-------
TABLE 6-9: WELL DRILLING ACTIVITY
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
Tennessee
Total
^ Region 6
° Arkansas
Louisiana13
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas*3
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
Total
Wellsa
45
25
4
809
556
50
1,489
307
2,948
728
2,685
7,722
14,390
15,879
28,120
1970
Explor-
atory
27
10
4
228
235
22
526
85
671
163
458
2,098
3,475
4,001
7,693
Devel-
opment
18
15
-
581
321
28
963
222
2,277
565
2,227
5,624
10,915
11,878
20,427
Total
Wellsa
110
46
3
918
451
203
1,728
321
3,036
1,213
3,646
12,086
20,302
22,030
37,235
1975
Explor-
atory
65
27
3
313
263
143
811
78
708
170
394
3,203
4,553
5,364
9,214
1981 (Forecast)
Devel-
opment
45
19
-
605
188
60
917
243
2,328
1,043
3,252
8,883
15,749
16,666
28,021
Total
Wells3
275
30
2
1,530
860
380
3,077
890
6,135
2,610
10,100
23,167
42,902
45,979
77,264
Explor-
atory
115
18
2
500
400
200
1,235
190
1,335
445
800
5,514
8,284
9,519
16,768
Devel-
opment
160
12
-
1,030
460
180
1,842
700
4,800
2,165
9,300
17,653
34,618
36,460
60,478
Sources: API, 1978 and updates; McCaslin, 1981a.
aExcludes service wells, stratigraphic and core tests.
^includes offshore.
-------
1981b). Many of the wells, and all of the deep holes, in Oklahoma
will be drilled in the Anadarko. Exploratory drilling results
were excellent for 1980; in a four county area in western Oklahoma
there were 17 new field discoveries and 16 new zone strikes and/or
major extensions. Overall, the Anadarko ranked third among the
geologic provinces with respect to the number of new field wild-
cats completed with 425, and ranked fifth in total completions
with 4,397.
Alabama also has experienced an upsurge in oil and gas activi-
ties in recent years. State figures show that there were 23 pro-
ducing oil and gas fields in Alabama in 1971; by the beginning of
1981, the number of fields had increased to 102. The 16 new
fields found in 1980 topped the previous high of 12 found in 1979.
Of the 28 new fields established over the past two years, 21 are
located in the Black Warrior Basin in northwestern Alabama. The
remainder are in the Salt Basin in the southwestern part of the
state (McCaslin, 1981c).
The nation's oldest oil province is on the brink of major ex-
ploratory activity. In the Eastern Overthrust Belt in the Appa-
lachian Basin, leasing has been widespread, seismic crews are
active and large exploratory programs are planned (McCaslin and
Sumpter, 1981). Although only a few holes were drilled in. 1980,
over 20 tests were expected in or near the Eastern Overthrust Belt
during 1981. In addition, 20 seismic crews are working along the
belt and seismic exploration is expected to increase by 25 percent
during 1981.
Based on the age of the rocks and the production found so far,
the Eastern Overthrust Belt is expected to be a gas province, for
the most part. However, geologists quickly add that it is much
too early to rule out chances for oil discoveries and that finding
the key to big production in the region may be at least five years
away. Because of the size of the region and the abundance and
diversity of structural settings, a large number of exploratory
wells are likely to be drilled before the major deposits are found
(McCaslin and Sumpter, 1981).
6.3.4 Environmental Issues
Table 6-10 presents selected environmental issues associated
with the development of petroleum and natural gas. The basic
exploration and drilling procedures utilized for petroleum and
natural gas do not differ substantially. The greatest potential
danger with this stage is the drilling procedure itself. A blow-
out, or uncontrolled flow of crude oil or gas, can occur when an
oil or gas formation is breached. Although the number of drilling
blowouts is relatively small, they can result in the release of
large amounts of crude oil containing nondegradable organics that
are potentially toxic (MITRE, 1981). In addition to direct land
6-21
-------
TABLE 6-10: SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES FOR OIL AND GAS DEVELOPMENT
Production Stage
Exploration and
drilling
Water Quality
Aquifer contami-
nation
Air Quality
Air pollutants from
fires
Land Use and
Solid Waste
Surface disruption
from roads and
drilling sites
Safety and
Health
Fires and
accidents
I
to
to
Production
Refining
Transportation
and
distribution
Oil spills
Mud pit spills
Salt water
disposal
Oil spills
Saltwater spills
Wastewater
treatment
Deep well
injection
Spills
Sour gas removal
system emissions
(H2S and SO2)
Hydrocarbons and
other criteria
pollutants
Hydrocarbon
emissions
Drilling mud dis-
posal
Hazardous waste
disposal
Local land
disturbance
Ri ght s-of-way
Habitat
fragmentation
Fires and
accidents
Long-term ex-
posure to hyd-
rocarbons for
operators and
the public
Fires and
accidents
Fires and
accidents
H2S = hydrogen sulfide
-------
and water pollution, in the event of fire, air pollutants are
released including hydrocarbons, nitrogen oxides (NOX), SC>2, car-
bon monoxide (CO), and particulates.
Accidents occur more frequently in high-pressure natural gas
operations than in corresponding crude oil operations; however,
natural gas accidents generally cause less environmental damage.
For example, water pollution resulting from gas well blowouts or
gas pipeline leaks would be much less severe than from similar oil
operations. One exception is the high concentration of hydrogen
sulfide (H2S) sometimes associated with natural gas.
The muds used during drilling are another source of potential
environmental problems. It has been estimated that 1,200 to 2,500
barrels of mud are required for a well 8,500 to 11,500 feet deep
(Wilkins, 1977). Unless disposed of properly, these muds can con-
taminate soils and surface and ground water supplies. For exam-
ple, if the mud is spread on the ground, rainwater soaking through
the soil and into the aquifers carries with it the toxic additives
in the drilling mud, such as lime, caustic soda, chlorides, and
arsenic. In Oklahoma, approximately 300 communities depend on
ground water to meet all of their water needs and about 80 percent
of the water used in irrigation comes from underground sources.
Virtually all of the ground water to supply these communities and
for irrigation is in the western half of the state, an area of
increasingly heavy drilling activity (Fossett, 1981).
Upon reaching the surface, a considerable amount of brine
(water containing sodium chloride and other salts) is separated
from the crude oil—often as much as two to three volumes of brine
for every volume of oil (Wilkins, 1977). Most of this brine is
disposed of in underground formations or used for injection pur-
poses during secondary recovery. Water sources can be contami-
nated through the fracturing and connection of underground aqui-
fers and surface water can be polluted from accidental spills and
leakages from holding ponds (Fairchild, Hall, and Canter, 1981).
Other environmental concerns during the drilling and produc-
tion phases include noise and air emissions from drilling rigs and
site preparation, soil erosion losses resulting from site access
and preparation, possible sedimentation in nearby streams, oil
spills, and land subsidence. Offshore activities could result in
interference with fishing operations, water pollution from brine
discharges released during drilling and production and from the
disposal of drilling muds. Oil spills or chronic leakage around
the drilling platform could result in serious localized impacts,
particularly on bay and estuarine systems.
A potential source of air quality problems is the removal and
disposition of H2S, primarily associated with natural gas produc-
tion. H2S is a hazardous substance which must be removed before
further processing. After removal, the free H2S can be burned or
6-23
-------
sent to a sulfur recovery plant. If it is burned, there may be
considerable amounts of SC>2 released to the atmosphere (Leggett
and Williams, 1979).
These and other environmental concerns associated with the
discovery and production of petroleum and natural gas resources
will be heavily concentrated in the Sunbelt—an area experiencing
unprecedented drilling activity. Further, since this activity is
highly concentrated in a few states (Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana)
the potential cumulative impact of oil and gas development is much
greater.
6.4 DIRECT USE OF COAL
6.4.1 Introduction
While the importance of oil and gas as major sources of energy
will continue for the foreseeable future, reduced dependency can
be facilitated by the development of alternative fuel sources.
The rising prices of oil and natural gas and the comparative cost
advantage of coal make it an attractive alternative energy source,
particularly as a boiler fuel. It is the only source that can in-
crease its absolute contribution quickly and economically. The
Powerplant and Industrial Fuel Use Act (1978) is designed to in-
crease the use of coal by prohibiting oil and gas as fuels in new
power plants and large industrial heating units.
According to a ten year coal forecast issued by the National
Coal Association (NCA) coal production is expected to increase
from 800 million tons in 1980 to 1,300 million tons by 1990 (see
Table 6-11). Utilities are expected to continue to be the largest
user group in the United States and consume about 935 million tons
in 1990. Increased demands from other sectors (e.g., synthetic
fuels, industry, export) are projected to lead to significant
growth in the coal industry. The Sunbelt—particularly Kentucky,
Texas, and New Mexico, is expected to supply a substantial portion
of that coal.
This section will discuss the availability of coal resources
in the South, its production and use for electricity generation,
and highlight the environmental issues associated with the produc-
tion and use of coal.
6.4.2 Resource Distribution
Figure 6-2 shows the major coal basins of the coterminous
United States. These coal deposits are widely dispersed and ap-
proximately 13 percent of the country has coal beneath the
6-24
-------
TABLE 6-11: COAL PRODUCTION AND USE
(millions of tons)
1975 1980 1985 1990
Production 655 830 Approx. 1,000 l,300a
End Use
Utilities
Synthetic Fuels
Industry
Export
403
62
67
565
77
70
727
4
94.5
105
935
38b
140.5
142
Source: NCA, 1981, p. 391; Coal Age, 1981, p. 45.; U.S.,
Congress, OTA, 1979, p. 42.
aEstimated range from 1.1 to 1.6 billion.
producers are projected to use as little as 9 million
tons or as much as 75 million tons, depending on how fast the
synfuel industry develops.
surface. Within the Sunbelt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Okla-
homa, Texas and New Mexico are the principal sources of coal.
The coal obtained from the Appalachian Basin has supplied 60
percent or more of total annual national production since coal
mining began in the United States. It generally is the highest
grades of bituminous coal and is often high in sulfur content.
The coal in the Illinois Basin (which includes western Kentucky)
has a slightly lower heat content than Appalachian coal, and the
sulfur content can be quite high. For the most part, the coal
beds of Oklahoma and Arkansas are thin with some moderately thick
seams occurring in the southern portion of Oklahoma. Both states
have coal of metallurgical grade that is shipped out of the state.
The lignite deposits in Texas and Louisiana and subbituminous beds
in New Mexico are recoverable from surface mines. These coals
have a substantially lower heat and sulfur content and a higher
moisture content than eastern coal (U.S., Congress, OTA, 1979).
As of January 1, 1976, the United States had approximately
283 billion tons of coal reserves recoverable with existing mining
6-25
-------
SAN FRANCISCO
EXPLANATION
Anthracite ami wnianlhracite
^
Low volatile bitnmmou* rot'
Medium- and high-volatile
bilummour»'coil
eza
Subbituminoui foal
EUD
Lifmtt
Coal Markets
1 - Appalachian
II - Midwest
III - Northern Plains
IV - Southwest
I I
0 200 400 600 KILOMETRFS
COM. FIELDS OF THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES
Figure 6-2: Coal Fields of the Coterminous United States
Source: U.S., Library of Congress, Congressional Research
Service, 1980, p. 595.
technology (Table 6-12). The Sunbelt contained 26.5 billion tons
of recoverable reserves, a little over 9 percent of the U.S. total
reserves.
Within the South, Region 4 has 75 percent or 19.6 billion tons
of the total recoverable reserves. Most (86 percent) of these re-
serves are located in the eastern and western coal fields of Ken-
tucky. Together, Kentucky and Alabama account for 82 percent of
the underground reserves and 60 percent of the reserves recover-
able from surface mines in the Sunbelt.
Within Region 6, most of the reserves are recoverable through
surface mining—almost 5 billion tons or about 70 percent of the
region's total coal reserves. Texas does not have any recoverable
underground reserves. Furthermore, while New Mexico, Oklahoma,
and Arkansas do have some recoverable underground reserves, signi-
ficant recovery of these reserves is considered questionable in
6-26
-------
TABLE 6-12: RECOVERABLE COAL RESERVES AS OF JANUARY 1,
Region/State
Region 4
Eastern Kentucky
Western Kentucky
Alabama
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
New Mexico
<* Texas
NJ Oklahoma
Arkansas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
Under-
ground
(Q's)
136
118
27
9
290
29
—
18
4
51
341
3,931
Surface
(Q's)
84
69
26
6
185
42
52
8
3
105
290
2,307
Total
Q's
220
187
53
15
475
71
52
26
7
156
631
6,238
Underground
(millions
of tons)
5,200
4,800
1,000
400
11,400
1,200
—
700
100
2,000
13,400
169,000
Surface
(millions
of tons)
3,600
3,200
1,100
300
8,200
2,000
2,500
300
100
4,900
13,100
113,900
Total
(millions
of tons)
8,800
8,000
2,100
700
19,600
3,200
2,500
1,000
200
6,900
26,500
282,900
Source: Adapted from U.S., Congress, OTA, 1979, p. 63.
Recoverable reserves can be mined with existing technology and are deposits no
deeper than 1,000 feet and at least 28 inches thick for underground mines, or with
depth-to-seam thickness ratios of 10 or less for surface mines. These estimates are
based on 57 percent recoverability in underground mines and 80 percent in surface
mines.
-------
New Mexico, and underground mining has ceased in Oklahoma and
Arkansas.
At the end of 1979, producing coal mines reported a total of 25
billion tons of recoverable reserves (Table 6-13). About 6 billion
tons of the recoverable reserves from these mines are located in
the Sunbelt; Kentucky and New Mexico account for two-thirds of
these reserves. Of the total estimated recoverable reserves in the
South, only 22 percent are associated with currently producing
mines. Except for Tennessee and New Mexico, which have substantial
amounts of their estimated reserves located in existing mines,
other states will need to open new mines to tap the remaining
reserves. In 1979, Kentucky already had 1,351 mines which only
accounted for approximately 14 percent of the total recoverable
reserves. The 201 mines in Alabama contained 27 percent of the
total recoverable reserves. The remaining states, particularly
Oklahoma, Texas, and Arkansas, have few producing mines containing
a small percentage of the total estimated recoverable reserves.
Although not likely, the estimates of recoverable reserves
could be revised downward if more stringent regulations are en-
acted that would make recovery uneconomical. Upward revision
could result if more recoverable resources are identified, new
techniques increase the recoverable fraction, or if regulations
and standards are changed to make recovery more economically
attractive.
6.4.3 Current and Future Status
A. Coal Production
Table 6-14 presents the 1980 coal production levels (U.S., DOE,
EIA, 1981d) and projections from the Office of Technology Assess-
ment for 1985 and 2000 (U.S., Congresss, OTA, 1979). Overall, the
proportion of U.S. production from the Sunbelt is projected to de-
crease slightly over the next 20 years, from 29 percent to 20 per-
cent between 1980 and 2000. However, in terms of absolute tonnage
produced, output from the Sunbelt is projected to increase by 65
percent—from 240 million tons in 1980 to 396 million tons in 2000.
Within Region 4, production from surface mining is expected
to decrease between 1980 and 2000 while coal from underground min-
ing is projected to increase substantially. Overall, production
from Region 4 is projected to increase from 187 million tons to
230 million tons. Region 6 is not expected to have any signifi-
cant amount of underground mining, however, the production of coal
from surface mines is projected to increase between 1980 and 2000.
In 1980, Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma produced about 52 million
tons of surface mined coal and accounted for 36 percent of the
total surface production in the Sunbelt. By 2000 these states are.
6-28
-------
TABLE 6-13: RECOVERABLE COAL RESERVES FROM PRODUCING MINES,
1979^
(millions of tons)
% of Total
Recoverable
Total Reserves in
Underground Surface Recoverable Producing
Region/State Reserves Reserves Reserves Mines
Region 4
Eastern
Kentucky
Western
Kentucky
Alabama
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
New Mexico
Texas
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
1,235
494
353
462
2,544
w
11,736
555
148
211
48
962
w
785
49
2
13,427
1,790
642
564
510
3,506
1,368
785
49
2
2,204
5,710
25,163
20
8
27
73
18
43
31
5
1
32
22
9
w = withheld to avoid disclosure of individual company data.
Source: Adapted from U.S., DOE, EIA, 1981c.
aExcludes mines producing less than 10,000 tons of coal per year.
6-29
-------
TABLE 6-14: COAL PRODUCTION: CURRENT AND PROJECTED3
(millions of tons per year)
Surface
Region/State
Region 4
Eastern Kentucky
Western Kentucky
Alabama
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
i New Mexico
o Texas
Oklahoma
Total
Sunbelt Total
Q.S Total
Source: Compiled
p. 5.
1980
49
21
16
4
92
17
29
5
52
145
492
from
.6
.4
.9
.8
.7
.5
.4
.4
.3
.0
.2
U.S. ,
1985
36
21
12
4
73
38
43
3
84
157
260
Underground
2000 1980
40
28
10
3
81
75
85
2
162
243
925
Congress ,
59
19
9
5
93
1
-
-
1
94
337
.6
.6
. 5
. 1
.9
.0
--
—
.0
.3
.5
OTA, 1979,
1985
50
20
15
3
88
—
—
1
1
89
335
p. 48,
2000
85
33
27
4
149
2
--
2
4
153
580
and U.S.
1980
109. 2
41.0
26.4
9.9
186. 5
18. 5
29.4
5.4
53.3
239.8
829.7
, DOE,
Total
1985 2001
86
41
27
7
161
38
43
4
85
246
955
El A,
125
61
37
7
230
77
85
4
166
396
1, 505
1981d,
aThe projections assume a 100 Q energy demand by the year 2000.
-------
expected to increase surface mine production to 162 million tons,
67 percent of the Sunbelt's surface mine production.
These projections are only estimates of what could happen with
coal production in the Sunbelt. The actual production levels and
the distribution of that production could be influenced by many
factors: overall energy demand patterns, developments in the nu-
clear power industry, changes in the cost of production and trans-
portation of coal, the development of better and cheaper technolo-
gies for the control of emissions from high-sulfur coal, changes
in regulatory standards, and customers' perceptions of the reli-
ability of delivered supply. These and other unpredictable fac-
tors could produce interregional shifts of several hundred million
tons annually by 2000 (U.S., Congress, OTA, 1979).
B. The Use of Coal for Electricity Generation
About 70 percent of the coal mined in the United States is
consumed by utility companies to generate electricity. Electric
utilities are expected to consume about the same percentage of
coal for the next ten years, however the percentage of electrical
power generated using coal is projected to increase from 48 per-
cent in 1979 to 52 percent in 1985 and 57 percent by 1990 (Nation-
al Coal Association, 1981).
In 1977, the Sunbelt accounted for 33 percent (67,517 mega-
watts [MW]) of the total U.S. electric generating capacity from
coal. Within the Sunbelt, 86 percent of the coal-fired electric
generating capacity was located in Region 4. Nationally, 245 new
coal-fired units are scheduled to come online from 1979 through
1988. These units have a total generating capacity of 127,568 MW
(Table 6-15). Forty-four percent of these new units and 50 per-
cent of the additional generating capacity is projected to be
located in the South. Of the 109 coal-fired units scheduled for
operation in the South, the number of units and the total genera-
ting capacity (63,428 MW) are almost equally divided between
Regions 4 and 6. Overall, the proportion of the South's total
electric generating capacity accounted for by coal is expected to
remain about the same from 1977 to 1990 (approximately 43 per-
cent) . However, within Region 4, coal's share of electric capa-
city is projected to decrease from 65 percent in 1977 to 50 per-
cent in 1990 (Honea, Hillsman and Mader, 1979). This is due in
large part to projected increases in nuclear power, particularly
in the Tennessee Valley Authority area and in the Carolinas. How-
ever, given current constraints, it is not clear just how much
capacity nuclear power will contribute over the next 10 years (see
Section 6.6). Even though coal's share of generating capacity is
projected to decline, 30,777 MW of new coal-fired capacity is,
nevertheless, scheduled for Region 4. For example, Florida, which
is heavily dependent on oil, and Kentucky are scheduled to add
substantially to their current coal-fired capacity.
6-31
-------
TABLE 6-15: ELECTRICITY GENERATING CAPACITY FROM COAL STEAM
State
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
1977
New Coal Units Scheduled
1979-1988
Capacity
(MW)
Number
of Units
Capacity
(MW)
8,658 5 2,596
3,237 13 8,076
8.416 4 2,629
11,838 18 10,806
2,662 1 1,600
10,403 3 2,160
3,502 7 2,910
9,241
57,957 51 30,777
126 4 2,880
820 11 6,240
2,818 4 1,642
515 10 4,855
5,281 29 17,034
9,560 58 32,651
67,517 109 63,428
205,945 245 127,568
Source: Honea, et al., 1979, p. 89; and U.S., DOE, FERC, 1981,
p. 9.
The situation in Region 6 is very different. Except for New
Mexico, the states in the Southwest are very dependent on oil- and
gas-fired units for electricity generation. In 1977, only 14 per-
cent of the total electric capacity was provided by facilities
that burned coal. New Mexico is the only state in the region that
is not projected to experience a large increase in coal-fired
capacity between 1979 and 1988 (U.S., DOE, FERC, 1981). In total,
Region 6 is expected to bring online 32,651 MW of new capacity
during this period.
In 1980, the Sunbelt consumed approximately 200 million tons
of coal for electricity generation; a large percentage of this
coal, 127 million tons, was burned in Region 4 (Table 6-16). Dur-
ing the next 10 years, only a small amount of the existing coal-
fired capacity is expected to be retired (U.S., DOE, EIA, 1980c).
6-32
-------
Consequently, the demand for coal to supply these units will con-
tinue. In addition, by 1988, the total annual demand for coal to
supply scheduled new units in the Sunbelt is expected to reach 249
million tons. Not only will both regions be burning substantially
more coal for electricity generation in 1988, but most of the coal
supply will be mined within the Sunbelt. Sources for approximate-
ly 94 percent of the new coal demands in Region 6 have been iden-
tified and of these, about two-thirds are within the region.
Within Region 4, even less coal will be supplied from mines out-
side the region. Thus, the Sunbelt is expected to experience a
substantial increase in the amount of coal burned for electricity
generation and in the production of coal to supply exisitng and
scheduled new power plants.
6.4.4 Environmental Issues
A variety of environmental issues are associated with the pro-
jected increases in coal production and consumption in the Sun-
belt, as summarized in Table 6-17. Generally, the impacts asso-
ciated with mining are located around the area of production. For
example, the potential problems of surface mining are related to
land modification leading to possible water and wind erosion, the
modification of topsoil, temporary or permanent changes to vegeta-
tion, potential contamination of soil and water from the weather-
ing of toxic strata, and the impairment of wildlife habitats. The
land also is removed from other uses (e.g., agriculture, recrea-
tion) until reclamation operations are complete. Surface mining
can impact ground water supplies by (1) drainage of usable water
from shallow aquifers; (2) lowering of water levels in adjacent
areas and changes in flow directions; and (3) contamination from
mine leakage (U.S., DOE, Asst. Sec. for Environment, Off. of
Technology Impacts, 1980, p. 5-104). In addition, runoff from
surface mines can cause sedimentation problems in local streams.
Acid mine drainage and subsidence are the major problems re-
sulting from underground mining. Acid drainage already is a major
problem in the Kentucky coal fields, particularly from inactive
mines. Some mining situations do not allow adequate permanent
control once active mining and water treatment cease. A signifi-
cant percentage of the underground mines that are active at pre-
sent, or that will be opened in order to meet increased demands,
could present acid drainage problems when they are closed (U.S.,
Congress, OTA, 1979). While regulations exist that attempt to
control acid mine drainage, enforcement, especially with smaller
mines, has been a long-standing problem.
Both surface and underground mining operations generate prob-
lems from waste materials left at the surface in piles or spoil
banks. These materials are subject to runoff and erosion and can
be the source of pollution of local streams and aquifers.
6-33
-------
TABLE 6-16: ANNUAL COAL REQUIREMENTS FOR ELECTRIC UTILITIES
Region/State
Coal Consumed Coal Demand
by Electric by
Utilities in 1980 New Units in 1988a
(thousands of tons) (thousands of tons)
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
18,383
6,980
19,530
24,963
3,568
22,953
7,411
23,295
127,083
5,824
17,701
5,481
24,806
1,600
3,800
8,094
67,306
3,389
2,823
10,980
8,002
47,647
72,841
1 199,924
565,000
10,000
23,905
6,740
16,500
124,277
181,422
248,728
396,160
Source: U.S., DOE, EIA, 1981e, p. 21; and U.S., DOE, FERC, 1981,
p. 9.
aThis tonnage represents a 12 month demand for units due onstream
between 1979 and 1987, and a prorated demand for units scheduled
for operation during 1988.
6-34
-------
TABLE 6-17: SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES IN THE PRODUCTION AND DIRECT USE OF COAL
Production
Stage
Land Use and
Water Quality
Air Quality
Ecosystems
Safety and Health
Other
Mining
and
upgrading
I
Co
(Ji
Con-
version
(steam
electric
plants)
Short- and long-term
land use changes, ero-
sion, and uncertainty
of reclamation In the
arid Southwest
(New Mexico)
Aquifer disturbance
and pollution; leaching
from waste piles
Nonpotnt source water
pollution (acid mine
drai nage—Southeast;
sed1mentatIon—New
Mexico)
Subsidence
Potential surface and
groundwater pollution
from holding ponds
ThermaI wastewater
discharges
DIsposaI of Iarge
amounts of sol id
wastes
Local land-use changes
Construction on flood
plains
Fugitive dust (especially
In New Mexico)
Mine fires
Waste pile fires
Emissions of "criteria
pollutants" (i.e., NOX,
SC>2, partlculates, etc.)
Possible releases of
trace elements
Disruption of wildlife
habitat and changed
productivity of the
land
Slltatlon of streams
Habitat fragmentation
from primary and secon-
dary population growth
Mining accidents Increased water use
for reclamation
Occupational diseases
in underground coal Transportation
mining (e.g., black
lung)
Impacts on road
traffic and noise
Air pollution damage to Fire and accidents
pI ants
Contributions to acid
rain
Wildlife habitat frag-
mentation from con-
struction population
Increases
Contributions to the
"greenhouse" effect
Water aval lab 11Ity
issues (especially
In western Sunbelt)
Transport Land use changes from
rights-of-way
Disruption of wildlife
habitat
Uncertain effects of
high voltage trans-
mission lines
-------
Air quality problems from mining usually are local in nature
and are related to fugitive dust from mining operations, storage
piles, and coal hauling. Spontaneous combustion in piles of waste
materials is common in Appalachia; these fires produce noxious
fumes that may have adverse health impacts (U.S., Congress, OTA,
1979).
Mining operations have a definite impact on the health and
safety of the workers. In 1977, 139 coal workers were killed and
about 15,000 suffered a disabling injury. If coal production
triples, it could result in about 370 deaths and 42,000 disabling
injuries per year (U.S., Congress, OTA, 1979).
Black lung disease, the nonclinical name for a variety of res-
piratory illnesses of which coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) is
the most prominent, is the major mine-worker health issue. Federal
respirable dust standards could help lower the prevalence of CWP
but thousands of workers nevertheless will be disabled by various
respiratory diseases. Under the most optimistic assumptions, it is
estimated that between 11,000 and 18,000 currently active miners
will show X-ray evidence of CWP in the year 2000 and at least an
equal number will exhibit other respiratory problems.
Even with the use of control technologies, the burning of coal
can release substantial quantities of sulfur, nitrogen, carbon
oxides, and particulate matter, and small amounts of trace elements
and polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons. For example, in 1978, air
emissions from coal-fired power plants in Kentucky contained 1.5
million tons of sulfur oxides (SOX) and accounted for 94 percent of
the total SOX emissions in the state (U.S., EPA, Off. of Air Qual-
ity Planning and Standards, 1980). In addition, these power plants
emitted 345 thousand tons of NOX (56.8 percent of the state's
total) and 96 thousand tons of particulates (15 percent of the
total). While emissions levels in Texas were not nearly as high,
neither was the level of coal consumption. Coal-fired plants in
Texas emitted 312 thousand tons of SOX and 173 thousand tons of
NOX. However, between 1979 and 1988, Texas is scheduled to add 29
coal-fired units that would burn 124 million tons of coal a year,
in addition to the 47 million tons currently consumed by existing
plants.
SO2 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) are subject to chemical trans-
formation once in the atmosphere and are believed to be a major
contributor to acid precipitation. Sulfur and nitrogen oxides have
their own individual environmental effects as well. Locally de-
posited SO2 can damage crops and forests when meteorological or
geographical conditions cause the plume to impact the terrain.
The use of precipitators can remove large particulate matter
from emissions with a great deal of efficiency. However,
6-36
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precipitators are not as efficient in removing fine particulates
and the associated trace elements and hydrocarbons that are ab-
sorbed on their surfaces. The potential for human health impact
is based on the ability of fine particulates to penetrate the
lung's defenses where the toxic materials on the particles could
then affect tissues.
The general problems of air pollution from coal combustion are
exacerbated by the fact that areas can experience poor air quality
caused by sources outside their jurisdictional boundaries (U.S.,
Congress, OTA, 1979). The increased use of lignite in power
plants in Texas and Louisiana will increase air emissions. The
area of lignite development and use (primarily in eastern Texas)
is aligned with the prevailing winds from the southwest to the
northeast. Emissions from the increased combustion of coal in
Region 6 could have negative impacts (e.g., increased acid precip-
itation) on the southeast and northeast sections of the country.
The major problems of burning coal with respect to land and
water stem from the secondary effects of environmental controls.
These include the effects of cooling tower blowdown, water con-
sumption, and waste products collected by air pollution controls.
Although the Clean Water Act (1977) regulates effluents, the in-
crease in coal burning capacity could lead to substantial in-
creases in the discharge of dissolved solids in Florida, Louisi-
ana, Oklahoma, and Texas, where large increases in coal-fired
capacity are scheduled (U.S., Congress, OTA, 1979). Large quan-
tities of wastes are generated by the particulate control devices
and S02 scrubbers which can cause land use problems and environ-
mental damage unless properly managed.
Thus, the increased production and consumption of coal in the
Sunbelt could lead to problems related to land reclamation, air
quality and water quality in these states projected to experience
large increases in production and/or use. In addition, long-range
transport of air emissions from the Southwest could exacerbate the
acid precipation problems that already exist in the East.
6.5 SYNTHETIC FUELS FROM COAL AND OIL SHALE
6.5.1 Introduction
Because of the continuing rise of oil and natural gas prices,
coal and oil shale are being considered as alternative sources of
gaseous and liquid fuel. Progress toward the development of the
synfuels industry will be slow and it is not likely that the 1980
Energy Security Act (P.L. 96-294) goals of 500,000 bbl/d of oil
from synfuels by 1987 and the equivalent of two MMbbl/d by 1992
will be met. However, synthetic gas and liquids derived from coal
6-37
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and oil shale are expected to be produced on a commercial scale in
the next 5 to 10 years (Taylor and Moon, 1981).
Parts of the Sunbelt are likely to be involved in supplying
feedstock for synfuel production as well as in the conversion of
the feedstock into fuel. This section will discuss the availa-
bility of the natural resources required (coal, oil shale, water),
the current and future status of synfuel production in the South,
and the environmental issues associated with synthetic fuels.
6.5.2 Resource Availability
A. Coal
The Oak Ridge National Laboratory used a panel of experts to
generate a set of criteria for siting facilities for the conver-
sion of coal into synthetic fuels (Berry et al., 1978). Among the
most important factors was the proximity of required natural re-
sources—high-sulfur coal and water. Depending on the process
used (Table 6-18) a synfuel plant designed to produce 50,000 bar-
rels per day oil equivalent (bpdoe) would require between 20,000
and 40,000 tons per day (tpd) of coal (U.S., DOE, Asst. Sec. for
Environment, Off. of Technology Impacts, 1980). Assuming normal
mining and operating conditions, each plant would need 6 to 12
million tons of coal reserves yearly.
According to a study by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), all
or portions of three of the coal regions most likely to be used
for synfuel production are located within the study area—the
Southern Appalachian region (eastern Kentucky and portions of Ten-
nessee and Alabama), the Eastern region (western Kentucky), and
the San Juan River region (northwestern New Mexico) (Rickert,
Ulman and Hampton, 1979). Each of these areas has sufficient coal
resources to supply several synfuel facilities. However, much of
the coal in these regions already has been committed to utilities
or to the steel industry. Further, in several coal regions, the
beds are valuable aquifers, and the siting of synfuel facilities
could be constrained by possible impacts on water supply and
quality due to removal of the coal.
As noted previously, the proximity and availability of water
is an important consideration when siting a synfuel plant. Like
coal, the amount of water required for the synthetic fuel plant
varies with the conversion technology selected. In general, based
on an energy output of 50,000 bpdoe, coal liquefaction requires
less water than gasification. In addition, the composition of the
coal, cooling methods, and the product gas heating value are key
factors affecting water requirements (Rickert, Ulman, and Hampton,
1979). High sulfur content coal, wet cooling processes and high-
Btu product gas all increase the amount of water required.
6-38
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TABLE 6-18:
RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS ASSOCIATED WITH SYNFUEL
CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES, BASED ON PRELIMINARY
DESIGN STUDIES
(normalized to 50,000 bbl/d crude oil equiv.)
Process
Input
(tpd)
Conversion
Thermal Watera
Efficiency Requirements
(%) (AFY)
Oil Shale
(surface)
Fischer-Tropsch
(indirect
liquefaction)
EDS
(direct
liquefaction)
125,000
(25 gal/ton shale)
31,000
(Subbituminous 8,500 Btu/lb)
0.45% sulfur
20,000
(Bituminous 12,663 Btu/lb)
4% sulfur
65-70 6,000-10,000
56-60 11,000-12,000
60-64 7,500-8,500
SRC
(direct
liquefaction)
Mobil Technology
Coal-to-Methanol-
to-Gasoline
Lurgi dry ash
(high Btu coal
gasification,
250 MMscf/d)
21,000
(Bituminous 12,518 Btu/lb)
3.5% sulfur
31,000
(Subbituminous 8,500 Btu/lb)
0.45% sulfur
38,000
(Lignite 6,783 Btu/lb)
0.6% sulfur
58-62 5,500-6,500
56-58 11,000-12,000
58-60
20,000
tpd = tons per day
AFY = acre-feet per year
MMscf/d = million standard cubic feet per day
Source: Adapted from U.S., DOE, Asst. Sec. for Environment, Off. of Tech-
nology Impacts, 1980, p. 3-23.
aThe actual water requirements for a specific site can be substantially re-
duced through maximum use of dry cooling.
6-39
-------
The availability of water resources for synfuel development is
affected by: (1) the extent of existing water appropriation; (2)
the willingness of existing users to sell their water rights; (3)
legislative, judicial and administrative decisions regarding the
transfer of water rights; and (4) uncertainties about instream
flow requirements for other uses. Based on assessments of surface
and ground water resources, existing interstate compacts, and an
assumed water transportation radius of 50 miles, the USGS
(Rickert, Ulman, and Hampton, 1979) has delineated areas with suf-
ficient unappropriated water for synfuel development. Of those
areas within the southern regions that have the potential for syn-
fuel production, only a portion of New Mexico appears physically
to lack sufficient local water under present conditions. However,
many would argue that this is not a constraint since water can be
purchased by energy companies from other existing water users—
especially agriculture.
B. Oil Shale
Much of the Eastern Devonian oil shale contains more natural
gas but less oil per unit volume of rock than the western shales.
Current surveys indicate that large sections of the eastern United
States are underlain with Devonian shale with a great deal of the
resource located in outcrop areas that are easily accessible to
mining (Figure 6-3). The United States Geological Survey esti-
mates that there may be between 400 billion and one trillion
barrels of oil that could be extracted from Devonian shale (Shale
Country, 1981).
A field survey to define the extent of eastern Devonian oil
shale resources and their suitability as feedstock for the HYTORT
process identified 423 billion barrels of recoverable oil re-
sources in a three-basin area (IGT, 1980). A summary of the iden-
tified recoverable resources as of November 1979 is presented in
Table 6-19. Fifty-six percent of the sources are located in Re-
gion 4 with an estimated 190 billion barrels of oil recoverable
from shale deposits in Kentucky alone. Using HYTORT, a commercial
plant producing 50,000 bbl/d of oil for 20 years would require
about 3,000 acres of land (five square miles) based on the average
yield for the three-basin area.
Not only is mining expected to be easier in the East than in
the West, but the water for processing also is more plentiful.
The water required for cooling methods used with oil shale conver-
sion is similar to the amount used for coal gasification. Approx-
imately 50 percent of the water consumed in aboveground oil shale
production is used for spent shale disposal.
6-40
-------
i
*>•
Deposits on the
Green River for-
mation, including
all identified high-
quality resources
Devonian Shale
Figure 6-3: Distribution of U.S. Oil Shale Resources
Source: Duncan and Swanson, 1965.
-------
TABLE 6-19: DEVONIAN OIL SHALE RESOURCES RECOVERABLE
BY IGT HYTORT PROCESS
Appalachian, Illinois, and Michigan Basin Areas
Total Area Resources Recoverable
Suitable For by
Surface Mining Aboveground Hydroretorting
thousands of
State sq. miles billion bbl bbl/acre
Ohio
Kentucky
Tennessee
Indiana
Michigan
Alabama
Total or
Average
980
2,650
1,540
600
160
300
6,230
140
190
44
40
5
4
423
222
112
44
104
49
21
106
Source: IGT, 1980.
6.5.3 Current and Future Status
A. Coal
Figure 6-4 maps the possible locations of coal gasification
and liquefaction projects in the Sunbelt. The distribution of
projects between the two regions is relatively even, 18 in Region
4 and 15 in Region 6. However, 52 percent of the projects in the
Sunbelt are concentrated in Kentucky (9) and along the Texas/
Louisiana Gulf Coast (8). Eastern Tennessee, northern Alabama,
and northwestern New Mexico also have multiple sites.
Summary information about each of the facilities on the map is
presented in Table 6-20. Many of the projects are in the feasi-
bility study phase, and as such, complete information is not
available. In general, the low-Btu gas products will be used on
site for either process heat, combined-cycle electricity genera-
tion, or kiln firing. High-Btu gas will be used as a direct sub-
stitute for natural gas in pipelines, chemical feedstocks, or as
feed to a liquefaction process. Some high-Btu gas also will be
used for electricity generation. Coal liquids will be used as a
substitute for boiler fuel oils, and to produce transportation
6-42
-------
Figure 6-4: Coal Gasification and Liquefaction Projects
(see Table 6-20 for descriptions of sites)
-------
TABLE 6-20: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION PROJECTS
Region/State
REGION 4
Kentucky
1. Plkevllle
O u t+/~h T nc
f. • n i Tt.n i rib
3. Cattletsburg
4. Georgetown
5 . F 1 orence
6. Breckenrldge
7. Newman
8. Baskett
9. Henderson
Sponsor
Pike County; Ky., DOE;
Appalachian Regional
Comm.; DOE
G©n0P9 1 R0fr"3CTor* 1 ©s Coj
DOE
Ashland ot 1;
Hydrocarbon Research
Irwln Industrial Develop-
ment Co.; DOE
General Refractories Co.
Ashland Oil; Atrco; DOE
Air Products and Chemicals;
Southern; Wheel abrator- Frye
LurgI; Badger Energy;
W.P. Grace; DOE
Texas Eastern Synfuels;
Texas Gas Transmission
Status
Complete 1981
a
Pilot in June 1980;
Commercial by 1990
— —
9 month feasibll Ity
Construction In 1983;
operation in 1987
Proposed, future
doubtful
Preliminary design,
onstream 1986
Feasibility study,
construction pro-
posed
Process
We 1 1 am-
Galusha
\tll~H^As* 1 1 —
woooa i i
Duckman
H-coa 1
We 1 1 am-
Galusha
Low-Btu
H-coa 1
SRC-I
Texaco and
Mobil
Methanation
Fischei —
Tropsch
Input
3 tons/hr.
low sulfur
2J.-. «. /U»-
Tons/fir.
low sulfur
Pilot, 600 tpd;
Demonstration,
6,000 tpd;
Commerc I a 1
20,000 tpd
1 .5 tons/hr.
Eastern Kentucky
High sulfur
6,000 tpd, high
sul fur Kentucky
29,000 tpd, high
sulfur Eastern
28,000 tpd
Output
60 x 106 LBG/hr.
895 x 106 LBG/d
50,000 bbl/d fuel oil
or syncrude from
commercial unit
1,034 bpdoe
50,000 bbl/d
20,000 bbl/d possible
expansion to 100,000
bbl/d
50,000 bbl/d gasoline
145 x 106 cfd HBG,
chemicals, and transpor-
tation fuels; equivalent
to 50,000 bbl/d
(continued)
-------
TABLE 6-20: (continued)
I
£>
(Ji
Region/State
REGION 4 (continued)
Tennessee
10. KIngsport
1 1 . East Tennessee
12. Oak Ridge
13. Memphis
Alabama
14. Muscle Shoals
15. Murphy Hill
16. Wllsonville
South Carol Ina
17. Georgetown
Florida
18. Pine I las County
Sponsor
Tennessee Eastman
Tennessee Energy Inst.
Tennessee Synfuels Assoc.
(Cities Service and Koppers)
Memphis Light, Gas, and
Water; Foster Wheeler;
Delta Refinery; DOE; IGT
Tennessee Valley Authority
(TVA)
TVA; Bechtel National;
C.F. Braun; Foster Wheeler
Southern Company Services;
DOE; EPRI
Micrex Corporation
Florida Power
Status
Onstream late 1983
Possible construc-
tion 1983
Onstream 1985-86
Prel I ml nary work
completed; onstream
by 1986
Onstream mid-1980
First module onstream
by 1985; last by 1987
Operational
9 month feasibility
12 month feasibility
Process 1 nput
Texaco 1,600 tpd
Gasification,
1 nd 1 rect
Liquefaction
Kellogg/ 5,480 tpd
Mobll-M
IGT-U GAS 3,100 tpd,
Kentucky #9,
high sulfur
Texaco 200 tpd
Koppers- 20,000 tpd
Totzek
SRC-PAMCO 6 tpd
_ -__ _«
Comb I ned
cycle
Output
3.6 x 106 bbl/yr.
9,000 bbl/d gasoline;
1,500 bbl/d LBG;
550 tpd sulfur
154 x 106 cfd MBG
135 tpd ammonia
350 x 106 cfd MBG,
and liquid products;
50,000 bpdoe
4,310 bpdoe MBG
7,458 bpdoe MBG;
electric power
(continued)
-------
TABLE 6-20: (continued)
Region/State
Sponsor
Status
Process
Input
Output
REGION 6
Arkansas
19. Redfield
Louisiana
20.
21.
Convent
West Lake
Arkansas Power and Light
Texaco; Houston Natural Gas
Combustion Engineering;
Gulf States Utilities
Feasibi I Ity study
requested
Feasibility study
requested
Contract being
negot I ated
Texaco
Texaco with
methanation
Gasification/
Electric
Power
1 1 1 inois #6 and
Arkansas
6,000 tpd
1,800 tpd high
sul fur Eastern
120 x 106 Btu/d MBG to
electric power;
25,000-30,000 bpdoe
300 x 106 cfd HBG;
25,000 bbl/d methanol
150 MW
Texas
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
Baytown
Baytown
Near Baytown
Near Houston
Texas City
East Texas
Bishop
Moore County
Exxon; Japan Coal Lique-
faction Development Co.;
DOE
Exxon
Exxon; Carter Oi I
Transco
Union Carbide
Exxon
Ce I anese Corporation
Mapco I nc.
Under construction
Operating, commercial
plans deferred
Conceptual stage,
operational 1987
Feasibility study
requested
18 month feasibi 1 ity
Feasibi 1 ity study
comp 1 eted
Onstream 1982
Exxon Donor
Solvent
EDS
Lurgi
Lurgl
Lurgl
250 tpd
0.5 tpd
45,000 tpd
Texas lignite
Texas lignite
42,000 tpd
Texas Lignite
600 bbl/d
Liquid fuels
925 x 106 cfd
357 x 106 cfd
357 x 106 cfd
MBG
10,000 bpdoe
MBG
MBG
MBG
methanol
1,428 bbl/d ethanol
(continued)
-------
TABLE 6-20: (continued)
Region/State
Sponsor
Status
Process
Input
Output
REGION 6 (continued)
New Mexico
30. Northwest N.M.
31. San Juan County
32. Northwest N.M.
33. Grants
Texas Eastern
Transmission; Pacific
Lighting Corporation
Texas Eastern Synfuels;
Utah International
El Paso Natural Gas Co;
Pacific Gas and Electric
Energy Transition
Corporation
Feasibility study
underway
9 month feasibility
study proposed;
onstream 1988
Price guarantee
requested
LurgI with
methanatlon
LurgI -Gas 25,000 tpd
and methanol
LurgI with 7,600 tpd
methanatlon
250 x 106 cfd HBG
138 x 106 cfd HBG;
51,500 bbl/d methanol
72 x 106 cfd HBG
1.2 x 106 bbl/yr
methanol
cfd = cubic feet per day LBG = Low-Btu Gas MBG = Medlum-Btu Gas HBG = High Btu Gas
Source: Carvtttl, Szabo, and Kemner, 1981; Wett, 1981; Patel, 1981; OGJ, 1981e; Cantrell, 1981b, p. 220; Hanson, 1981.
aData not aval I able.
-------
fuels such as methanol and gasoline (Carvitti, Szabo, and Kemner,
1981).
The nation's two largest experimental synfuels plants testing
variations of an advanced coal-to-liquid process are located in
the South and have completed long-term continuous runs. Outside
Catlettsburg, Kentucky, Ashland Synthetic Fuels has used the H-
coal process with eastern bituminous coal for more than 1,500
hours. In Baytown, Texas, the Exxon Donor Solvent plant has log-
ged more than 3,000 hours (Wett, 1981). Among the projects aimed
at making transportation fuels from coal is the W. R. Grace lique-
faction plant proposed for Baskett, Kentucky. The facility would
produce 50,000 bbl/d of high-octane unleaded gasoline from 29,000
tpd of high-sulfur coal and is projected to be onstream in 1986.
The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) has two projects which
are expected to produce medium-Btu gas. The Muscle Shoals, Ala-
bama, coal-gasification plant was retrofitted to an existing ammo-
nia plant and began test operation in 1980. The facility consumes
200 tpd of high-sulfur, high-ash coal to produce 10 million cfd of
synthesis gas; the gasifier can supply 60 percent of the daily
capacity of the ammonia facility (135 tons). TVA's Murphy Hill
site would convert about 20,000 tpd of eastern high-sulfur coal to
medium-Btu gas that could be burned directly as an industrial fuel
or used as a chemical feedstock. The gas also could be processed
into pipeline quality substitute natural gas or liquid fuels. The
first module, capable of processing 5,000 tpd of coal, is expected
to be completed by 1985 with the entire facility completed by 1987
(Patel, 1981).
The Memphis Light, Gas, and Water Project would convert ap-
proximately 3,100 tpd of Kentucky #9 coal into 154 million cfd of
medium-Btu gas (equivalent to about 10,000 bbl/d of oil). The gas
could provide fuel for local industrial consumers. On the Gulf
Coast, the Gulf States Utilities Company (GSU) demonstration plant
is expected to produce low-Btu gas to be used for generating 150
MW of electrical power. The proposed plant would be located at
GSU's West Lake, Louisiana, facility and would be capable of pro-
cessing 1,800 tpd of coal. Initial work is now underway; the
total program from design to operation is expected to take six
years (Patel, 1981).
B. Oil Shale
Some reports have indicated that eastern oil shale could be
commercially viable in today's market with special government sub-
sidies in the form of price and purchase guarantees, tax incen-
tives, loan guarantees, and capital grants. However, the devel-
opment of new processes (such as HYTORT and Paraho) may make it
economically feasible to exploit these deposits without special
subsidies (Synfuels Week, 1980). By using these new processes,
6-48
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Devonian shales containing ten percent or more organic carbon by
weight may be commercially attractive feedstocks for the produc-
tion of synthetic fuels.
A geologist with the Institute for Mining and Minerals Re-
search at the University of Kentucky has stated that commercial
development of Kentucky oil shale is about five years away (Shale
Country, 1981). In addition to completing resource surveys, min-
ing plans have to be worked up and the retorting technology needs
to be developed further. Even though the costs of processing and
the extent of the resource are still uncertain, Phillips Petroleum
and the Institute for Gas Technology (IGT) have been developing
the retorting technology and have indicated that they believe an
investment in the development of Devonian shale is worth the risk.
The IGT has demonstrated the HYTORT process experimentally and has
indicated that the process is ready for testing in a plant requir-
ing about 2,000 to 4,000 tons of shale per day.
A number of oil shale processing facilities are being consid-
ered for the north central Kentucky area. A study conducted for
the Buffalo Trace Area Development District of Maysville, Ken-
tucky, concluded that 4.4 billion barrels of oil can be recovered
from oil shale in Lewis and Fleming counties. A site specific
study in Fleming County to determine the feasibility of an oil
shale processing plant (Paraho process) to produce 10,000 bbl/d of
oil has been completed (OGJ, 1981f) and a feasibility study is
underway for a 30,000 bbl/d plant in Lewis county. In the same
area, a 10,000 bbl/d plant is being considered for a Clark County,
Indiana site (directly across the Ohio River from Kentucky). The
first phase would be completed by 1987, with an expected total
plant capacity of 50,000 bbl/d (Chemical Week, 1981).
The future development of eastern oil shale will depend, to a
large degree, on the price and supply of crude oil. Estimated
costs for product synthetic crude oil range from 26 to 29 dollars
per barrel (first quarter 1980 dollars).
6.5.4 Environmental Issues
Some environmental problems of synfuel facilities are similar
to those of any large-scale industrial activity, especially those
utilizing coal, while others will be relatively unique to coal
liquefaction or gasification and oil shale development. Problems
will vary among areas and the types of technologies employed.
Table 6-21 summarizes major environmental issues associated with
producing synthetic fuels from coal and oil shale.1 Although
important differences exist among the synthetic fuel processes,
a discussion of the impact related to coal mining see
section 6.4.4.
6-49
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TABLE 6-21: SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES FOR SYNFUELS
Production
Stage
Land Use and
Water Qual Ity
Air Quality
Ecosystems
Safety and Health
Other
Con-
version
Pro-
cesses
I
m
o
Potential surface and
ground water pollutlon
from holding polnds
Wastewater discharges
(Southeast)
Disposal of large
amounts of sol Id
wastes
Local land-use changes
Construction on flood
plains
Emissions of "criteria
pollutants" (i.e., NOX,
S02» particulates, etc.)
Fugitive emission of car-
cinogenic substances
Possible releases of
trace elements
Releases during "upset"
conditions
Possible localized odor
problems
Air pollution damage to
plants
Contributions to acid
rain
Wildlife habitat frag-
mentation from popula-
tion increases
Contributions to the
"greenhouse" effect
Occupational safety Water availability
and health risks from issues (especially
accidents and toxic in New Mexico)
chemicals
Carcinogens in direct
proces s IntermedIates
and fuel products
Product
Transport
and
End-Use
Product spi 1 Is from
trains, pipelines,
and storage
Changed automotive ex- Acute and chronic dam-
haust emissions (Increase ages from spills
in some pol lutants,
decrease In others)
Increased evaporative
emissions from methanol
fuels
Exposure to spi 1 Is
Uncertain effects of
trace elements and
hydrocarbons
Potential change
fuel economy
in
Methanol corrosion
and reduction of
existing engine
longevity
Toxic product vaporiza-
tion
Source: Chartock et a I., 1981,
-------
there are many similarities with respect to environmental impacts.
All plants transform a solid fuel, high in polluting compounds and
mineral matter, into liquid or gaseous fuels containing low levels
of sulfur, nitrogen, trace elements, and other pollutants. In
addition to the management of waste streams (air pollutants, water
effluents, or solid wastes), other environmental concerns include
potential ecosystem disruptions from population increases asso-
ciated with building and operating the plants, water requirements,
and occupational safety and health risks.
A. Air
Large synfuel facilities generally will have lower levels of
emissions of "criteria pollutants" than comparably sized coal-
fired power plants. For example, a new coal-power plant meeting
existing air emissions standards and capable of utilizing the same
rate of coal as a 50,000 bbl/d coal liquefaction facility would
produce roughly 5 to 25 times as much NOX and S02, and 0.8 to 12
times as much particulates (Chartock et al., 1981). Air disper-
sion modeling for a variety of locations with meteorological con-
ditions similar to the South have shown that coal liquefaction
facilities should be able to meet standards for ambient air qual-
ity during "normal" operations (Chartock et al., 1981).
Another potential problem from synthetic fuel plants is odor,
which can be important on a localized basis. Like petroleum re-
fineries, H2S is one of the major odorous emissions (MITRE, 1981)
because of its relative abundance in process streams. Odor epi-
sodes outside plant boundaries are well documented for petroleum
refineries (NAS, 1979). At the present time, information is not
available to indicate whether odor problems from coal liquefaction
facilities would be better or worse than refineries.
B. Trace Organic Compounds
Trace emissions of carcinogens formed during the conversion
processes are of more concern than criteria pollutants. For ex-
ample, some coal liquefaction and gasification processes produce a
wide range of organic compounds including polynuclear aromatic
hydrocarbons and polynuclear aromatic amines, known to be carcino-
genic. Although known to be present in carbonaceous retorted
shales and shale oil products, the potential hazard of such mate-
rial is not accurately known (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980). The concern
is that workers and the public could be exposed through trace
levels in pollution streams, accidental releases to the air and
water, and direct contact with end-products. The degree of risk is
uncertain due to:
« Lack of information on the precise nature of the
chemical compounds produced;
6-51
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• The reliability of controlling releases;
• Potential for multiple exposure paths for the populace;
• Inadequate understanding of the long term human health
effects from low-level but chronic exposures; and
• Potential for detoxifying the end products.
These uncertainties exist because of the absence of commercial
plant experience and the limited environmental health testing of
intermediate and end products.
C. Water
Synfuel plants produce wastewater streams that contain many
pollutants known to cause health and environmental problems. For
example, process wastewaters will contain phenol, ammonia, poly-
nuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, chlorides, sulfates, cyanides, and
a variety of trace elements such as arsenic, cadmium, and mer-
cury. Existing industrial wastewater treatment technologies are
expected to be able to control most of these effluents in the ab-
sence of major accidents. However, it is not certain that planned
wastewater treatment technologies can continuously control the
trace elements and toxic organic compounds, or the potential in-
teractions among the various pollutants associated with synfuel
processes.
With respect to oil shale, construction, mining, and site use
activities may result in increased sediment and dissolved solids
in surface run-off and receiving streams. This source of water
pollution is not unique to oil shale but can present environmental
problems due to the magnitude of site activities (U.S., EPA, ORD,
1980a).
D. Solid Wastes
The disposal of solid wastes is an important environmental
concern, both in terms of its long-range land-use effects and be-
cause of the possibility of toxic materials being leached from the
disposal site. The magnitude of the wastes is great—over a 30
year period, a 50,000 bbl/d coal synfuels plant would produce
enough ash to require one square mile of land with waste piled 50
feet high (Chartock et al., 1981). For a 50,000 bbl/d western oil
shale plant (surface retorting) there will be enough spent shale
generated in one month to occupy a volume of almost two million
cubic feet, or about a two feet depth over a square mile (U.S.,
DOE, Asst. Sec. for Environment, Office of Technology Impacts,
1980). Since the yield per ton of Eastern shale is about half
that of Western shale, spent shale disposal problems from Eastern
6-52
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development are likely to be even greater than the disposal prob-
lems associated with Western shale.
One of the major issues with the potential to impact on the
future of the industry has to do with whether these wastes (or
some portions thereof) should be declared "hazardous" under the
1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (see Chapter 15) and,
thus, be subject to very stringent disposal requirements. If this
were to occur, it could have serious economic consequences for the
synfuels industry.
E. Other Impacts
Other environmental issues in addition to those related di-
rectly to gaseous, liquid, and solid wastes include the following:
• The extremely large plant size—requiring approximately
2,000 to 3,000 acres for a 50,000 bbl/d facility—
creates aesthetic and land-use impacts;
• Large shipments of coal to plants located away from mines
create noise, dust, and disruptions to local road traffic;
and
• The consumption of water for plant operations—anywhere
from 3,400 to 5,900 AFY for a 50,000 bbl/d coal lique-
faction facility—raises concerns over the appropriate
use of an increasingly scarce resource, especially in
areas like West Texas and New Mexico.
6.6 NUCLEAR ENERGY RESOURCES
6.6.1 Introduction
In the early 1970's it was generally thought that nuclear
power would be the largest supplier of electric energy by the end
of this century. However, it is now apparent that the role of
nuclear power as a source of energy in the U.S. will not be as
great as once projected. Recent estimates (U.S., DOE, Asst. Sec.
for Policy and Eval., 1980; OGJ, 1981g) indicate that nuclear pow-
er could provide almost one-quarter (24 percent) of the nation's
power needs for electricity by the end of the decade, and that
percentage is expected to remain relatively constant through the
year 2000 (25 percent). This reduced role of nuclear power is
even more dramatic when one considers that these recent projec-
tions are based on energy consumption expectations that are great-
ly reduced compared to the projections made in the early 1970's.
6-53
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Within the Sunbelt, nuclear power will be an important source
of energy in Region 4, particularly the area supplied by the Ten-
nessee Valley Authority and the Carolinas, for the next 20 to 30
years. Although the states in Region 6 are expected to rely very
little on nuclear power as a source of energy, this area is a
source of uranium and a potential repository for spent fuel.
Thus, the South is involved in all stages of the nuclear power
cycle.
This section describes the distribution of uranium resources
in the South, discusses the current and future status of nuclear
power generation, and summarizes the environmental issues asso-
ciated with the nuclear power cycle.
6.6.2 Resource Distribution and Production1
The western part of Region 6 is an important source of uranium
for the nuclear power industry. The DOE (Off. of Uranium Re-
sources and Enrichment, 1980) provides separate estimates of the
quantities of uranium in cost categories of 30, 50, and 100 dol-
lars per pound of yellowcake (0303)- The reserves in these cost
categories represent the amount of 0303 in ore that is estimated
to be recoverable at those costs or less in the mining process.
As of January 1, 1980, 30-, 50-, and 100-dollar reserves were
estimated to be 645,000, 936,000, and 1,122,000 tons respectively.
Over 50 percent of the total U.S. reserves in each cost category
are located in Region 6, particularly New Mexico, and to a much
lesser extent, Texas (Table 6-22). Together, these states account
for 59 percent of the total 30-dollar reserves, 54 percent of the
50-dollar reserves, and 51 percent of the 100-dollar reserves.
Historically, New Mexico has been the leader in uranium pro-
duction; in 1979, 40 percent (8,200 tons) of the total U.S. U30s
came from New Mexico. Recently Texas has begun to make more of a
contribution to U.S. uranium supplies. The cumulative production
of UsOg from Texas has been about 15,000 tons. Current production
of uranium in Texas is about 2,700 tons annually and Texas ac-
counted for 13 percent of the total U.S. production in 1979.
Fisher (1980) estimates that the Texas resource base could support
production levels up to about twice the current levels.
^Uranium reserves are the estimated quantities of uranium which
occur in known deposits of such grade, quantity, configuration,
and depth that they can be recovered at, or at less than, a speci-
fied cost with current mining and processing technologies. The
discussion of resource distribution and production is based pri-
marily on U.S., DOE, Off. of Uranium Resources and Enrichment,
1980.
6-54
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TABLE 6-22: DISTRIBUTION OF URANIUM RESERVES
$30 Reserves $50 Reserves $100 Reserves
New Mexico
Texas
tons
U308
338,550
43,300
total
tons
52
7
tons
U308
448,700
55,800
total
tons
48
6
tons
U308
512,300
61,000
total
tons
46
5
Source: U.S., DOE, Off. of Uranium Resources and Enrichment,
1980.
Almost sixty percent of the U.S. uranium mill production capa-
city is located in the South, primarily in New Mexico and Texas
(Figure 6-5). As of January 1, 1980, the conventional mills in
these two states accounted for approximately 55 percent (11,000
tons U3Os/year) of the total U.S. production capacity. In addi-
tion, Texas has the capacity to produce 1,200 to 1,400 tons of
uranium from solution mining, while Florida and Louisiana can pro-
duce between 500 and 700 tons of uranium per year from phosphoric
acid byproducts.
Table 6-23 indicates the acreage of mining claims and state,
federal, Indian, and fee lands in the South held for uranium
exploration. These data also include lands held for production
and auxiliary purposes as well as leases and claims held by indi-
viduals and/or companies in anticipation of exploration interest.
While the South's share of the total U.S. land held for uranium
exploration and mining has decreased since 1976, the absolute
acreage devoted to this use has increased in New Mexico and Texas.
Texas continues to lag far behind New Mexico in terms of acreage
set aside for uranium exploration and mining, but between 1976 and
1980 Texas uranium acreage increased substantially—147 percent or
917 acres.
Not only is more Texas land being set aside as a possible
source of uranium, taut drilling activity for exploration and de-
velopment is increasing. Nationally, the total drilling footage
reported in 1979 was 13 percent lower than reported in 1978.
Texas was one of the few states that reported an increase in
drilling activity, accounting for 20 percent of U.S. total footage
6-55
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M
UCCOASNIUS
I
01
•*^4- PATHFINDER SHIRLEY 8A8IN r
A~ J ^
» «ET ^^
? y
NILCf
T ^^-^
WYOMING MINERAL
---------- \
^- ^^^ ,
r~ • •„- ..I
PETROTOMICS
f—
UCC URAVAN
CHEVRON
IEC CORP
EVEREST
U.S. STEEL.
UCC PALANQANA
DUftlTA
KERR McQEE
UNITED NUCLEAR
HOMESTAKE
i SOHIO-RESERVE I
CONOCO PIONEER
SOLUTION ENGINEER!!
WYOMING MINERAL •
URANIUM RESOURCES
MOSIL OIL
U.S. 8TIIL-
NIAOARA MOHAWK
Figure 6-5: Operating Uranium Mills in the U.S., January 1, 1980
Source: U.S., DOE, Off. of Uranium Resources and Enrichment, 1980.
-------
TABLE 6-23: LAND HELD FOR URANIUM EXPLORATION AND MINING
(thousands of acres)
New Mexico
Texas
1-1-1976
3,663
622
% of U.S.
Land Held
16
3
1-1-1980
4,652
1,539
% of U.S.
Land Held
13
4
Source: U.S., DOE, Off. of Uranium Resources and Enrichment,
1980.
(Table 6-24). About 93 percent of the drilling in Texas was
devoted to exploration activities in search of new ore deposits or
extensions of known deposits. In New Mexico, drilling was almost
evenly divided between exploration and development drilling.
6.6.3 Current and Future Status
A. Nuclear Power Generation
As of January 1, 1981, the United States had 75 licensed nu-
clear reactors with a generating capacity of slightly over 56,000
MW. Even though 101 units are under construction or planned, the
current projection of 176 nuclear reactors is substantially less
than the 236 units operating or planned in 1975 (U.S., Pres.
Comm., 1980). Uncertainty about future energy demands, substan-
tial public opposition, rising construction costs, and new regula-
tory requirements imposed after the accident at the Three Mile
Island power plant have led to a cautious wait-and-see attitude
for many utility planners.
As indicated by the data in Table 6-25 orders for new nuclear
installations virtually have stopped. From 1972 through 1974, 100
new nuclear plants (one to four units each) were ordered. The
number of orders then dropped off drastically; only 2 plants were
ordered in 1978 and none were ordered in 1979 or 1980. At the
same time, the number of units cancelled increased substantially.
Between 1978 and 1980, orders for 35 units were cancelled, as com-
pared to 14 cancellations between 1972 and 1974.
6-57
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TABLE 6-24: 1979 URANIUM DRILLING
(millions of feet)
% of % of % of
U.S. U.S. All
Exploration Total Development Fotal Drilling
New Mexico
Texas
3.0
7.6
11
28
3.3
.6
24
4
15
20
Source: U.S., DOE, Off. of Uranium Resources and Enrichment,
1980.
TABLE 6-25: THE MARKET FOR NUCLEAR POWER
Source: Atomic Industrial Forum, 1981.
aA plant consists of one to four units or reactors.
% change
1972-1974 1975-1977 1978-1980 1974-1980
Operating units
at the end
of the period 53 67
New plant
orders3 100 11
Unit orders
cancelled 14 22
75 +42
2 -98
35 +40
6-58
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The slowdown in construction of nuclear power plants in the
Sunbelt has not taken place to the same degree as in other re-
gions of the country. As of January 1, 1981, seven of the Sun-
belt states accounted for 27 percent of the operating units in
the U.S and 31 percent (17,331 MW) of the generating capacity.
Alabama has five licensed units, Florida and South Carolina have
four, Arkansas, Georgia, and North Carolina each have two oper-
ating units, and Tennessee has one (Figure 6-6). In addition,
almost half (46 percent) of the units with construction permits
are located in the South, as are a third of the units that have
been sited but are still in the planning stage. If all of the
units with construction permits or that are planned are com-
pleted, the South will have a generating capacity of 67,082 MW,
40 percent of the total U.S. capacity from nuclear power (Table
6-26).
In an attempt to promote the commercial use of nuclear power,
nuclear licensing reform efforts are underway (BNA, 1981d; BNA,
1981e). Currently, it takes 10 to 14 years to complete the li-
censing process; alternatives are being considered that would
reduce the lag to six to eight years. Site-banking also is being
considered. Under this plan, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
(NRC) would approve a preliminary bank of acceptable sites for
construction of nuclear plants and the utilities would choose from
among these sites.
Within the Sunbelt, some states in Region 4 in particular
appear to be committed to increasing substantially the use of
nuclear power as a source of electricity generation. Currently,
90 percent of the nuclear generating capacity in the Sunbelt is
located in Region 4; in Region 6, only Arkansas has operating
nuclear units. If all of the proposed units in the Sunbelt are
completed, Region 4's share of the South's generating capacity
would decrease to 81 percent; however, the absolute capacity
would increase significantly from 15,569 MW to 54,167 MW (Table
6-26). This is in large part due to the aggressive stance taken
by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and the Carolinas. All
new power generating capacity coming on line for the TVA region
(Tennessee, parts of Alabama and Mississippi) over the next ten
years will come from nuclear units.
The TVA has nine units under construction in six plants, and
construction of three units has been deferred until the mid-
19901 s. According to a forecast made by TVA, if the two units at
the Phipps Bend plant and two units at Hartsville were cancelled,
and the two units at Yellow Creek were delayed, TVA would still
have a reserve capacity of about 20 percent by the year 2000.
Rather than cancel or delay construction of any further units,
TVA officials say they hope to complete construction and then
transmit the electricity to parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and
Mississippi that are heavily dependent on oil and natural gas
(Commercial Appeal, 1980a).
6-59
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NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS IN THE UNITED STATES
l
o>
o
NUCLEAR GENERATING UNIT CAPACITY
•Include* Salem 2 »nd
load fuel and conduct tow power fettinq Doe* not include Indtjtn Point 1, r»t«d
at 265 MW
-------
TABLE 6-26:
NUCLEAR GENERATING CAPACITY IN THE SUNBELT
(MW)
As of 1-1-81
Total Potential Capacity
Region 4
Kentucky
Florida
Georgia
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
4,844
3,013
1,561
1,642
3,361
1,148
15,569
1,762
1,762
17,331
7,270
3,823
3,781
5,070
11,442
10,391
12,390
54,167
1,762
2,981
2,300
5,872
12,915
67,082
Source: U.S., NRC, 1981.
Other utilities also are moving ahead despite construction
lags and rapidly escalating construction costs. Georgia Power
Company was near bankruptcy in the mid-1970's causing a two-year
delay in completing two 1,100 MW nuclear units now scheduled to
be on line in 1985 and 1987. In order to meet some of the in-
creased costs for the construction of St. Lucie 2, Florida Power
and Light is looking to other state utilities for assistance. By
the time the unit is on line they expect to have sold up to 22
percent of its generation capacity. Construction delays and fi-
nancial constraints also have delayed four North Carolina units
under construction by Carolina Power and Light Company. Origi-
nally scheduled for 1977, 1978, 1979, and 1989, the timetable has
slipped to 1985, 1988, 1990, and 1994.
Some utilities previously committed to unclear power may be
reexamining their position. For example, Duke Power Company has
eight units on order or with construction permits in North Caro-
lina and South Carolina, but other energy alternatives are being
considered (BNA, 1980a). In northeastern Oklahoma, the Black Fox
6-61
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nuclear power plant project is not likely to be completed because
the Public Service Company has not been able to secure a rate in-
crease sufficient to pay for the plant's revised price tag of 9
billion dollars. Currently, the plant is about 2 percent complete
after an investment of 300 million dollars. Construction has gone
as far as it can without a full NRC permit and the project is
costing about 2 million dollars per month while the plant site
stands idle. Before granting a full construction permit, the NRC
would take into account the Public Service Company of Oklahoma's
ability to finance the project (Malone, 1981; Vandewater, 1981).
B. Hazardous Waste Disposal
The disposal of radioactive wastes is one of the most intense-
ly debated issues related to nuclear power. High-level and low-
level waste are precisely defined categories of radioactive waste
requiring different procedures for proper handling and disposal.
High-level waste includes spent nuclear reactor fuel, wastes pro-
duced from spent fuel reprocessing, and certain wastes associated
with the production of nuclear weapons. All other waste is clas-
sified as low-level wastes and includes anything (e.g., clothes,
and tools) contaminated by activities using radioactive materials.
For a commercial nuclear reactor, the most serious high-level
waste disposal problem has to do with spent fuel. A typical nu-
clear plant (1,000 MW) produces about 30 tons of spent fuel a
year (Kuziak and Havemann, 1980). Most nuclear plants have made
provision for on-site storage of spent fuel, but this method of
disposal cannot go on indefinitely. Even with the recent Reagan
administration decision to reverse the ban on private reprocessing
of used reactor fuel, maintaining adequate disposal space at the
unit sites will become increasingly difficult (Marshall, 1981).
About 6,000 metric tons of spent fuel currently are stored
at reactor sites around the United States. By 2000, this figure
is projected to increase tenfold, creating a demand for away-from-
reactor storage capacity of over 16,000 metric tons (BNA, 1981f).
In spite of plans by some utilities for increasing the capacity
for on-site storage, some reactors may have to shut down in the
next few years (NAS 1979b). Between 1985 and 1990, the demand for
away-from-reactor storage will probably be about 1,800 metric
tons; demand will increase rapidly to about 16,000 metric tons
during the decade of the 1990's.
The current administration's policy is that away-from-reactor
storage will not be a federal undertaking. Rather, it is expected
that private industry will take responsibility for the processing
of nuclear waste (BNA, 1981d). However, the government does
accept full responsibility for permanent isolation of high-level
radioactive wastes. Three permanent disposal sites are to be cho-
sen and exploratory shafts constructed by 1985. The first federal
6-62
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disposal site is expected to be ready for licensing by 1988
(Marshall, 1981).
There are those who argue that the technology for the safe dis-
posal of radioactive wastes, particularly high-level wastes, is
available and that burial or geological isolation is a workable
solution (NRC, CONAES, 1980). Others believe that wastes should
be stored in ground level vaults. Salt domes are among the geo-
logical formations being considered as potential deposition sites.
If isolation in salt domes is determined to be a workable solu-
tion, the Gulf Coast area could be tapped as a major repository
for radioactive wastes. Sites in Texas, Louisiana, and Missis-
sippi are being considered as repositories for high-level wastes
(Figure 6-7).
Low-level wastes are somewhat less controversial but can be
highly dangerous. Typically, these wastes are stored in 55-gallon
drums and buried in trenches about 30 feet deep. Currently, three
licensed facilities are available for the disposal of the 3.5 mil-
lion cubic feet of low-level wastes generated each year (43 per-
cent comes from nuclear power plants). In addition to Barnwell,
WIPP CANCELED SITE
STILL BEING EVALUATED
Figure 6-7: Proposed Sites for a Permanent High Level
Radioactive Waste Repository
Source: Nuclear Industry, March 1980, p. 3.
6-63
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South Carolina, facilities are located in Nevada and Washington.
Because of the closing of sites in New York and Kentucky due to
waste leakage, Barnwell is now accepting all of the low-level
waste produced in the East. Since this section of the country has
a large number of nuclear power plants and other radioactive
waste-producing sources, Barnwell receives approximately 80 per-
cent of the total volume of low-level waste shipped in the U.S.
(SSEB, 1981).
The volume of waste accepted at the Barnwell facility has
increased from 49,583 cubic feet in 1971 to 2,254,972 cubic feet
in 1979. The original operating license restricted the facility
to not more than 200,000 cubic feet per month. By the last quar-
ter of 1981, the allowable volume per month had been reduced to
100,000 cubic feet.
The transportation of radioactive wastes to interim or perma-
nent disposal sites presents major environmental issues. At pre-
sent, all shipments of spent fuel are going to interim storage
facilities until the government picks a permanent disposal site.
Between July 1979, and September 1980, 108 shipments (51 tons) of
spent fuel passed through 33 states, mostly on interstate highways
(Commercial Appeal, 1980b). Seven of these states are in the
Sunbelt—Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South
Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. Apprehension over the risks in-
volved has led almost 100 communities and one state (Louisiana) to
pass ordinances prohibiting shipments of spent fuel through their
areas. A study conducted for the NRC estimated that a serious ra-
diation release in a large metropolitan area could result in up to
two billion dollars in economic losses and several hundred addi-
tional cancer cases.
As of October 1980, only 17 nuclear plants have approved ship-
ping routes for spent fuel; the remainder have on-site storage ca-
pacity remaining (Commercial Appeal, 1980b). In addition to the
transportation of high-level wastes, low-level wastes are trans-
ported frequently and in large volumes. For example, hundreds of
thousands of barrels of low-level radioactive waste are trucked to
Barnwell, South Carolina, each year from nuclear power plants,
factories, and medical centers around the country. In 1980,
71,827 cubic feet of waste was shipped from Florida alone—just
under half of that from Florida Power Corporation's Crystal River
nuclear plant. Given the rate of current and planned construction
of nuclear facilities in the South, the issue of nuclear waste
disposal is likely to remain a major concern.
6.6.4 Environmental and Health Impacts
Table 6-27 presents environmental issues associated with the
nuclear fuel cycle. Many of the environmental issues result from'
the mining and milling of the uranium ore. Danger from exposure
6-64
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TABLE 6-27: SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY
ui
Production
Stage
Mining
and
milling
(New
Mexico
and Texas )
Conversion,
enrichment,
fabrication.
and repro-
cessing
(Oklahoma,
Kentucky, and
Tennessee)
Water Air
Quality Quality
Aquifer dis- Dust and radon
turbance; run- emissions
off control ;
surface water
con t aminat ion
Thermal Potential
pollution radioactive
emissions
Land Use
and
Solid Waste
Subsidence;
tailings
disposal
Habitat
disturbance
Sludge
disposal
Low and high
level radio-
active waste
disposal
Health,
Safety, and
Radiation
Exposure of
miners to
radioactivity
Mine
accidents
Exposure of
operators
Accidents
Other
Transporta-
tion accident
risks
Power
reactors
(region-
wide)
Thermal
pollution
Low level
radiation
Potential
radioactive
emissions
Habitat
fra gmentat ion
Exposure of
operators
Accidents
Plant siting;
accident
risks
Radioactive
waste disposal
(South Carolina
and possibly
Gulf Coast
Aquifer
contamination
Permanent
commitment of
land
Exposure of
operators
Siting; long
term monitor-
ing and pro-
tection
-------
during these processes is high and the effects are long-terra and
may not become evident (e.g., in the form of cancer) for 10 to 20
years. In Region 6, primarily Texas and New Mexico, nuclear
industry surveys indicate that mining and milling are expected to
increase about 400 percent between 1975 and 2000 (U.S., EPA, ORD,
1980b). Environmental problems could result from this increased
level of activity. Water pumped from the mines contains dissolved
and suspended solids and could affect local water quality. The
residue of the milling process includes radioactive solid and
liquid tailings that retain about 85 percent of the total radioac-
tivity of the ore from which they were produced (U.S., DOE, Off.
of Environmental Assessments, 1981). The radioactive material in
abandoned tailing piles may be dispersed in the air by wind and
contaminate ground water through leaching by rain. Radiation
exposure also is possible by inhalation of emissions of radon-222
gas.
In addition to issues related to the disposal of radioactive
wastes, public concern about the use of nuclear power has focused
on: (1) the safety of the routine operation of the nuclear fuel
cycle and of reactors; and (2) the possibility of major nuclear
accidents. The radiation to which the public is exposed during
the normal operation of a nuclear power plant is lower than that
emitted during an X-ray or from naturally occurring radioactivity.
Small quantities of short-lived radioactive gases and airborne
particles are released during the normal operation of light-water
reactors, but the exposure levels of individuals are small when
these gases and particulates are dispersed in the environment.
However, the health risks of long-term exposure to low-level radi-
ation are a continuing concern and some studies have suggested
that even low levels of radiation can be carcinogenic or mutagenic
(Schurr et al., 1979). The liquid effluents released by nuclear
power plants contain little radioactivity; the water is treated by
processing facilities and most of it is recycled as makeup water.
The low-level radioactive waste products removed during processing
are solidified, drummed and buried. The primary concern is the
possibility that the radioactive material will leach into the
ground water system.
A great deal of uncertainty surrounds the estimates of risk
attached to the possibility of reactor accidents. The Rasmussen
Report (U.S., NRC, 1975) on reactor safety (also known as WASH-
1400) attempted to estimate the probability that nuclear accidents
of varying severity would occur and that a significant release of
radioactivity would be carried to a location where it could expose
a population to possible health risks. The report concluded that
the chance of a severe accident occurring is extremely small.
However, the report was severely criticized for some of the me-
thodology and analytical techniques used and the NRC withdrew its
endorsement of the executive summary of the report. The Risk and
Impact Panel that participated in the National Academy of Sciences
(NRC, CONAES, 1980) assessment of alternative energy systems
6-66
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concluded that, even with the upward correction of the WASH-1400
estimates, nuclear power is acceptable provided the rate of expan-
sion is consistent with the rate of improvement of knowledge about
accident risks. However, the serious accident at Three Mile Is-
land raises serious questions as to the reliability of these pre-
vious accident risk estimates—and their economic consequences for
the affected utility. And, even if the estimated risks associated
with normal operation or major accidents are small, the risks are
increased substantially in the Southeast as nuclear power plant
construction continues.
Nuclear power is the most controversial source of energy among
the current alternatives. In recent years, intense debate has
taken place over issues of nuclear power plant safety, hazards
involved in nuclear waste disposal, and other questions about the
economics of nuclear power. Although some areas of Region 4 are
moving ahead with the construction of nuclear plants, the degree
to which nuclear power will contribute to the energy future of the
vSouth will depend on the successful resolution of these many
issues.
6.7 RENEWABLE BIOMASS ENERGY
6.7.1 Introduction
The renewable nature of biomass and the abundance of biomass
resources make it a potentially attractive source of energy. Fre-
quently, biomass is characterized as a resource capable of pro-
viding nonpolluting, safe fuels and "bioenergy" is considered to
be relatively benign. Besides being renewable, biomass contains
virtually no sulfur or radioactivity. On the other hand, biomass
generally has high ash content and low energy density. A large-
scale development of biomass resources could lead to environmental
problems related to combustion emissions and residues as well as
serious land use issues (Budiansky, 1980).
Although biomass resources are not expected to make signifi-
cant contributions to national energy supplies in the next 20
years, localized development is already taking place. The Sun-
belt, particularly the Southeast, with its forests, prime crop-
land, and long growing season is an attractive location for the
development of biomass resources for energy. This section dis-
cusses some of the uncertainties related to the future of biomass
energy, the current and future status of various biomass re-
sources, and identifies some of the environmental issues asso-
ciated with biomass energy.!
information presented in this section is based on, to a
large degree, U.S., Congress, OTA, 1980.
6-67
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6.7.2 Factors Affecting Biomass Energy Development
Many economic, technological, and political factors affect the
future of energy production from biomass. These include:
• Price of competing fuels (oil, gas, and coal);
• The availability of government subsidies;
• Competition for wood and grain for energy and
non-energy uses;
• Competition for land; and
• The efficiency of biomass conversion technologies.
Table 6-28 presents estimated production costs for various
types of biomass energy products and feedstocks. In some cases,
biomass could be competitive with fossil fuel. For example, wood
gasification in an industrial facility could be competitive with
#6 residual oil (a nearly perfect substitute) when air-blown wood
gasifiers are available through mass production (Table 6-29).
Similarly, gas from wood in a commercial facility could be compet-
itive with #2 fuel oil.
As stand-alone fuels, ethanol and methanol are not directly
competitive with gasoline. When added to gasoline, however, alco-
hol raises the octane content and improves engine efficiency.
Thus, the Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) estimates that,
used as an additive, ethanol could be competitive without subsi-
dies if its cost is no more than 1.7 to 2.5 that of crude oil.
Although prices currently are not competitive with gasoline,
federal and state subsidies create economic incentives for alcohol
fuels production. In the Sunbelt, the combination of state and
federal subsidies in the form of exemptions from excise taxes
ranges from $33.60 per barrel of ethanol in South Carolina to
$56.70 per barrel in Arkansas.
However, federal loan guarantees and grants have been cut by
the Reagan administration. At a Washington conference on alcohol
fuels held in late October 1981, potential producers and buyers
were told to expect less government involvement and to "use
creativity" in establishing a market. The DOE recently has indi-
cated that further solicitations for loan guarantees are not like-
ly. Bankers attending the conference stated that without federal
loan guarantees alcohol fuel producers, particularly small com-
panies with a small range of products, will have difficulty con-
vincing banks to lend them money; thus, development would likely
be curtailed (BNA, 1981g).
6-68
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TABLE 6-28: BIOMASS ENERGY PRODUCTS, FEEDSTOCKS, AND COSTS
Product
Methanol
Ethanolf
Feedstock
Facility Size
Wood3
Corn
Grain sorghum
Sweet sorghum
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Production Costs
$/million Btu
Solid fuel
Gasc
Wooda
Herbage3 and
Crop residues3
Wood3
Crop residues
Industrial15
Industrial
Industrial
Commercial^
On-farm
1.88
2.30 -
3.60
5.50
4.60e
3.10
11.80 - 17.30
11.26 - 14.00
10.32 - 13.04
14.82 - 19.33
Source: Compiled from U.S., Congress, OTA, 1980.
3Wood, herbage, and crop residues are assumed to cost $30 dry ton.
bFeedstock capacity of 250 dry ton/day at a 90 percent load
factor.
cAssumes availability of mass produced, air blown gasifiers.
^Feedstock capacity of 30 dry ton/day at a 25 percent load factor,
elncludes feedstock costs only.
fAssumes the following feedstock prices: corn $2.44/bu, grain
sorghum $2.23/bu, sweet sorghum $15.00/ton.
6-69
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TABLE 6-29: FOSSIL FUEL COSTS, MID-1980
Cost.
($/million Btu)
Crude oil ($30 bbl) 5.17
#2 fuel oil ($0.80 gal) 5.80
#6 residual oil ($0.60 gal) 4.80
Gasoline ($1.10 gal) 8.71
Source: Compiled form U.S., Congress, OTA, 1980.
Even some larger companies have felt the impact of the federal
government's stance on the development of alcohol fuels. Offi-
cials of the Great Western Sugar Company blamed escalating con-
struction costs and the administration's "uncertain attitude"
about loan guarantees for manufacturing synthetic fuels when they
announced cancellation of a 350 million dollar gasohol plant addi-
tion to their sugar refinery in Reserve, Louisiana. The plant was
scheduled to begin processing 83,000 bushels of corn per day into
alcohol, high fructose corn syrup, and animal feed by-products by
March, 1983 (Heffron, 1981).
Conflicts over the use of grains for energy production rather
than for food, feed, and export will not arise in the near term
because alcohol production will be limited by slow development and
plant capacities, rather than by the availability of grain feed-
stocks. Analyses indicate that alcohol production will not begin
to affect corn availability, for example until ethanol production
exceeds one billion gallon per year, which requires 400 million
bushels of corn (Collins et al., 1981). Current projections esti-
mate that up to three or four billion gallons of ethanol could be
produced annually before resulting in significant effects on the
availability of corn (SERI, 1980; Schnittker, 1980).
The quantity of land available for energy related biomass crop
production largely will depend on the expected demand for grains
for food. These estimates are subject to a high degree of uncer-
tainty and OTA estimates that the amount of land available for
biomass could range from zero to 65 million acres in 2000, depend-
ing on the demand for grains. These and other uncertainties make
projections about the future of biomass energy tenuous at best.
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6.7.3 Current and Future Status
Bioraass fuels accounted for about 2 percent (1.5 Q's) of U.S.
energy consumption in 1979. Most of this fuel, about 87 percent,
is used for process energy in the forest products industry; the
remainder is consumed as firewood and charcoal for home heating.
Depending on the availability of cropland, improved crop yields,
development of efficient conversion processes, proper resource
management, and the level of government support, the OTA (1980)
estimates that biomass energy sources could produce as few as 4 to
6 Q's/year, or as much as 12 to 17 Q's/year by 2000.
The OTA estimate is consistent with other estimates from
studies by the Harvard Business School (Stobaugh and Yergin,
1979), University of Oklahoma (Radovich, 1979), and U.S. DOE
(Asst. Sec. for Environment, Off. of Technology Impacts, 1980).
While the mix of sources is somewhat different, the total maximum
amount of energy available seems to be consistent at about 16 Q's
(Table 6-30). Given the potential constraints discussed previous-
ly, the lower production estimates probably are more likely.
TABLE 6-30: ESTIMATES OF BIOMASS ENERGY POTENTIAL BY 2000
(in Q's)
Energy Office of Technology Alternative
Source Assessment3 Estimates
Wood 5.0-10 6b
Grasses 1.3 - 5
Crop residues 0.7-1 6C
Agricultural wastes
and manure 0.2-0.5 3b
Ethanol grains
and sugar crops 0-0.3 0.9d
Total 7.2 - 16.8 15.9
Sources: aU.S., Congress, OTA, 1980; bMaidique, 1979; GRadovich
et al., 1979; dU.S., DOE, Asst. Sec. for Environment, Off. of
Technology Impacts, 1980.
6-71
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A. Wood
Wood is the largest potential source of biomass energy and the
large stand of commercial timber in the Sunbelt makes the area a
potentially major user of wood as a source of energy (see Ch. 9
for further description of wood resources in the Sunbelt). One
study indicates that the South is projected to produce between 2
Q's and 4 Q's of wood energy by 2000—about 40 percent of the
nation's total wood energy (compiled from U.S., Congress, OTA,
1980). Most of the wood fuel would be drawn from by-products of
wood processing (sawdust and paper-pulping liquor) and from forest
management techniques to increase yields (thinning, clear-cutting
and replanting, and collecting of logging residues). The demand
for mill residues, however, is already high. In 1970 only 28 per-
cent of all mill residues were left unused and by 1995, it is an-
ticipated that virtually all of the mill residues will be used by
the forest products industry for either energy (nonalcohol) or
production of end products (Collins et al., 1980). Logging resi-
dues are in less demand than mill residues but high collection
costs and lack of collection machinery could limit their accessi-
bility and desirability as a feedstock.
Direct burning currently is the most common form of generating
energy from wood and is used as a source of heat for industrial
boilers and space heating. With improvements in gasification
technology, and the use of automatic air-blown gasifiers attached
to boilers, wood could become a much more attractive fuel compared
with oil, gas, and coal (U.S., Congress, OTA, 1980). Wood lique-
faction to methanol and ethanol technically is feasible and wood
methanol can be produced at a cost comparable with methanol from
grain and sugar. In 1990, wood could be used to produce about 6.2
billion gallons of methanol with approximately 4.5 billion gallons
coming from the South, particularly Region 4, (MITRE, 1979). This
does not include production from silviculture energy farms.
B. Grasses and Crop Residues
A substantial quantity of energy potentially is available from
grasses and legumes. By more intensive cultivation of existing
hayland and pasture, grasses could supply from 1.3 Q's to 2.7 Q's
per year in the short-term. Use of marginal cropland for grass
cultivation could boost energy production to 5 Q's per year by
2000 (U.S., Congress, OTA, 1980).
About 20 percent of residues left behind after crop harvesting
could be used for energy producton. Residues currently could sup-
ply from 0.7 Q's to 1.0 Q's per year, depending on crop yields.
If food production increases by 20 percent in 2000, crop residues
could provide 0.8 Q's to 1.2 Q's per year (U.S., Congress, OTA,
1980).
6-72
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As shown in Figure 6-8, the Sunbelt accounts for 31 percent
of usable grasses and crop residues nationwide. Kentucky, Tennes-
see, Florida, Mississippi, and Alabama in Region 4 and Arkansas
and Louisiana in Region 6 have the greatest amount of potential
feedstock. The potential for obtaining additional cropland for
grass production, however, depends on competition for additional
land from crops such as wheat and corn.
Like wood, grasses and residues can be burned directly, lique-
fied, or gasified. Since the feedstocks are quite bulky, they
would likely be used at the site of production (on the farm) for
crop drying, fuel for irrigation pumps, and space heating. The
use of these feedstocks for commercial alcohol production could be
constrained by a number of factors, including: increased demand
for fertilizer, year-to-year fluctuation in residue availability,
and difficulties associated with collecting, storing, and pro-
cessing the feedstocks due to their low density. For example, a
20 million gallon per year (MMgpy) ethanol plant would require 55
acres of stalks piled 30 feet deep to keep it running (Peart,
1979).
aLess than 0.1.
Figure 6-8:
Source;
Usable Crop Residues and Potential Near-Term
Herbage Production
(million dry ton/year)
U.S., Congress, OTA, 1980.
6-73
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C. Grain and Sugar Crops
The potential for alcohol fuels from biomass is highly depen-
dent on the feedstock used to produce the fuel. Grains and sugar
crops are among the most frequently considered feedstocks for
alcohol (ethanol) production. According to estimates made by the
DOE the United States consumed approximately 900 million gallons
of gasohol in 1980, requiring 90 million gallons of ethanol. With
total U.S. gasoline consumption at 110 billion gallons per year
(bgpy), gasohol represents a small fraction (less than 0.1 per-
cent) of the current fuel supply. The output of ethanol plants in
the U.S. is expected to reach 500 to 750 MMgpy by 1985, about one
bgpy by 1990 and approximately two bgpy by 1995 (Stokes and
Waterland, 1981). Even with this substantial growth rate and gas-
oline consumption optimistically estimated to be as low as six
MMbbl/d, ethanol production in 1990 will meet but a small portion
(about 0.7 percent) of our gasoline demand.
While the greatest potential for alcohol fuels comes from
wood, grass and legume herbage, and crop residues, commercial pro-
cesses do not yet exist and grains and sugar crops will be the
major feedstock for the next ten years. Grains are less expensive
to store and process but sugar crops produce more ethanol per unit
of input (Plotkin and Bull, 1981). Currently, corn is the only
crop grown in the U.S. on a large enough scale to significantly
impact biomass alcohol production. However, extremely large
amounts of land would be required to produce a meaningful supply
of ethanol. For example, in 1976 Florida farmers planted 480,000
acres in corn with a yield of 60 bushels per acre. If 500,000
acres were allocated to corn, yields were high (60 bushels per
acre), and the entire crop was used for ethanol production, Flor-
ida would produce 7.9 million gallons of ethanol—displacing only
1.6 percent of its 1977 gasoline consumption (La Hart, 1981).
Nevertheless, nearly all of the proposed ethanol plants in the
Sunbelt will use grain, principally corn, as a feedstock. For
example, in 1980-81, DOE awarded loan guarantees to plants using
corn for ethanol production in Louisiana (5), South Carolina (2),
Tennessee (2), Mississippi (1), and Georgia (1) (U.S., DOE, Off.
of Public Affairs, 1980; OGJ, 1981h). In total, these 11 plants
are projected to produce approximately 533 million gallons (12.7
million barrels of ethanol) per year--most of it, 411 million gal-
lons, would be produced by the five ethanol plants clustered in
southeast Louisiana. These 11 ethanol plants would require ap-
proximately 205 million bushels of corn per year, 1.3 times the
total corn production of these states in 1978. Moreover, while
the plants in Louisiana alone would require 158 million bushels of
corn, production of corn in that state is negligible. Thus, al-
though plants in the South may use grain in the future to produce
ethanol, they will need to "import" those grains from other
states.
6-74
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Sugar cane is another frequently mentioned feedstock for etha-
nol production. Again using Florida as an example, in 1977,
285,000 acres of sugar cane were harvested with a total yield of
8.5 million tons of sugar. It takes about 13 pounds of sugar to
produce one gallon of ethanol; thus, Florida's total sugar cane
crop had the potential for producing 131 million gallons of etha-
nol, or 2.6 percent of the state's current gasoline consumption
(La Hart, 1981).
Not only would devoting Florida's sugar cane crop to ethanol
production yield small returns in meeting the state's energy re-
quirements, but distillation of cane juice yields 12.5 gallons of
stillage per gallon of ethanol produced; disposal of this large
volume of waste poses difficult environmental problems. Further,
sugar cane has one of the highest nutrient requirements of any
crop (Barnes, 1964). If Florida harvested its sugar cane on a sus-
stained yield basis, it would require 6,800 tons of ammonia, 5,100
tons of phosphate and 12,750 tons of potash each year. These nu-
trients are extremely energy-intensive to produce, transport and
apply to the crop, and they may contain as much energy as the cane
produces.
6.7.4 Environmental Issues
Table 6-31 presents some of the environmental issues related
to the production of alcohol fuels from biomass. The most signi-
ficant environmental issues associated with silvicultural and
agricultural biomass resources are likely to stem from the produc-
tion and conversion phases rather than from the use of products.
The amount of impact will vary and, to a large degree, be depen-
dent on site-specific characteristics such as type of soil, cli-
mate, topography, impact control measures, and the technologies
employed.
The environmental issues related to the production of biomass
resources for energy generally are the same as those encountered
when crops and forests are grown for other uses—for example,
increased potential for soil erosion and degradation of water
quality through siltation of streams and runoff of fertilizers and
pesticides, leaching of excessive applications of fertilizers,
etc., into ground water, depletion of nutrients and organic matter
in the soil, reduction in ecosystem diversity, and increased
blowing dust from loss of land cover. For further discussion of
these and other issues related to the production of biomass see
Chapter 9.
During the conversion of biomass into alcohol fuels, surface
water resources could be contaminated by effluents from the con-
version facilities. Liquid waste streams originate from many dif-
ferent process steps; a plant using corn for a feedstock, for
example, to produce 50 million gallons of ethanol per year would
6-75
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TABLE 6-31: SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES OF BIOMASS FUELS PRODUCTION
Production
Stage
Feedstock
Production
Water
Quality
Nonpolnt source
water pol lutlon
(sedimentation,
f ertl 1 izers,
pes tic Ides )-
Air
Quality
Effects on world-
wide C02 balance
Fugitive dust from
cropped areas
Land Use
and
Solid Waste
Large 1 and areas
requ I red
Land erosion
from intensive
cultivation
Safety
and
Health
Occupational haz-
ards with large-
scale biomass
harvesting
Accident risks
from biomass
transportation
Other
Increased water use for
Irrigation In water
scarce areas of Texas ,
Oklahoma, and New Mexico
Possible effects on
food exports and balance
of payments
Conversion
I
-J
Potential water
pollutlon from
stlIlage disposal
(BOD and COD)
Tox1c, liquid
waste disposal
from methanol
production (tars,
phenols, etc.)
Air emissions from
fuels used to run
ethanol process
Air emissions from
methanol production
Emissions from
direct burning of
biomass (residential
and industrial)
Explosions and
fires in ethanol
or methanol
pi ants
Toxic chemicals
used In dehydra-
ting ethanol
Toxicity of
methanol
Environmental reg-
ulation difficul-
ties from many
dispersed fact I I-
tles
Water requirements for
ethanol conversion
End Use
Potential
spills
Increased evapora-
tive emissions from
methanol fuels
Changed automot1ve
exhaust emissions
I ncrease In some poI -
lutants; decrease in
others)
Lower levels of air
emissions with meth-
anol substituted for
coal, o!I, or natural
gas
Increased hazards
from fuel vapors
(esp. with metha-
nol
Possible il legal
and hazardous con-
sumption of ethanol
Important questions
about net-energy effi-
ciency of the entire
process
Methanol fuels require
modifications to auto-
mob lie fIeet
CO-) = carbon dioxide
BOD = biochemical oxygen demand
COD = chemical oxygen demand
-------
produce approximately 3.5 million gallons per day of wastewater.
This water is acidic, high in total solids (25,000 pounds per
day), suspended solids (3,000 pounds per day), and biochemical
oxygen demand (BOD) (7,300 pounds per day) (Radian, 1979).
Stillage is particularly high in BOD and mineral salts; both sur-
face and ground water could be affected by improper or inadequate
treatment or disposal (Collins et al., 1981).
The major air pollutants associated with the conversion of
biomass to alcohol fuels stem from the combustion of fossil fuels,
particularly coal, to provide process heat (see Section 6.4.4).
Emissions from the direct burning of wood by relatively large in-
dustrial and utility facilities are not expected to present many
air quality problems provided that combustion design, operation,
and controls are appropriate (Dunwoody et al., 1980). The primary
air pollution problem associated with increased wood combustion is
the emission of hazardous compounds from uncontrolled residential
sources, especially where the sources are highly concentrated.
Uncontrolled burning releases organic compounds, NOX, CO, parti-
culates, and hydrocarbons. Recent research has shown that wood
contains significant quantities of potentially carcinogenic muta-
genic compounds (e.g., benzo(a)pyrene) that may be released during
burning in residential units (D'Alessio and Kawaoka, 1980). Fur-
ther, emissions from residential wood-burning stoves and fire-
places are not subject to air quality regulations.
6.8 PEAT AS AN ENERGY RESOURCE
6.8.1 Introduction
Peat is a geologically young coal consisting of partially car-
bonized remains of certain plants. Peat has long been used in
Europe, the Scandinavian countries, and the Soviet Union as a
source of fuel and chemicals. The peat resources in the United
States are the third largest in the world and are estimated to
contain about 1,440 quads (Q) of energy, the equivalent of 240
billion barrels of crude oil (Farnham, 1979).
In the past, U.S. peat has been virtually unexploited as an
energy source due to the availability of other fuels at low cost.
However, since 1975, interest in peat has grown in the U.S. and
numerous studies have been conducted by private industry as well
as by various state and federal agencies. Peat is attractive
because it represents a considerable potential energy resource
(second in recoverable reserves to coal), can be burned directly
to produce heat or steam for electricity generation, or can be
converted to substitute natural gas. Peat also is a relatively
clean fuel, particularly compared to high sulfur coal, and is
located in many regions where no other local energy resources are
available (Radian, 1980).
6-77
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Four of the top ten states in estimated peat reserves are in
the Sunbelt—Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Georgia.
This section will discuss the distribution of peat in the Sunbelt,
the current and future status of peat in the South, and the
environmental issues associated with the harvesting, processing,
conversion, and utilization of peat.
6.8.2 Resource Distribution
Peatlands exist throughout the world and are estimated to
cover between one and two percent of the total surface area. In
the United States, peatlands cover approximately 52.6 million
acres. While detailed inventories are needed to describe accu-
rately the U.S. peat reserves, it is thought that hemic peat is
the most widely distributed and largest quantity peat-type in the
U.S. The high density of fixed carbon and low ash content make
hemic peat the most valuable of the peat types as an energy source
(Fuchsman, 1978). The potential energy available from peat re-
serves is estimated at 1,443 Q, more than the combined proven re-
serves of western shale (430 Q), natural gas (249 Q), and petro-
leum (179 Q)(Williams Bros. Engineering, 1979).
Although peat is found in all 50 states, the major resource
areas are in Alaska, the North Central region around the Great
Lakes, and along the Atlantic Coast. The total U.S. peat reserves
are estimated to be about 120 billion tons, with 51 percent of the
peat located in Alaska (Table 6-32). Within the contiguous U.S.,
90 percent of the resources are concentrated in ten states: Min-
nesota, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin, Louisiana, North Carolina,
Maine, New York, Georgia, and Indiana. The South contains about
13 percent (6.7 million acres) of the total U.S. peat lands and
Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina and Georgia account for 96 per-
cent of the South's share. The estimated 14.7 billion tons of
peat reserves in these four states have the potential for pro-
ducing approximately 176 quads of energy (Farnham, 1980).
The areas covered by peat deposits can be mapped fairly accu-
rately; however, variations in depth and quality of peat are quite
common between peatlands located in different geographical areas
and even between bogs in the same area. Consequently, estimates
of peat reserves are not as precise as other fuel reserve esti-
mates; less than one percent of the peatlands have been surveyed
in detail and the assumptions used may be questionable. Most
estimates assume that the peat has a 35 percent moisture content,
bulk density of 15 Ibs/cu ft, caloric value equal to 6,000 Btu/
Ib, and an average depth of seven feet. Further, no distinction
is made between fuel-grade peat and spagnum peat, which currently
is not considered to be fuel-grade quality. Although a precise
estimate of U.S. peat reserves is not yet available, they are
believed to be significant enough to consider peat as an important
energy alternative (Punwani, 1980).
6-78
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TABLE 6-32: ESTIMATED U.S. PEAT RESERVES AND POTENTIAL ENERGY
Estimated Reserves
Geographic Area
Sunbelt
Florida
Louisiana
North Carolina
Georgia
Remaining lower
48 states
Alaska
Total
Acres
(millions)
3.00
1.80
1.20
.43
19.17
27.00
52.60
Quantity
(billion tons)
6.9
4.1
2.7
1.0
43.9
61.7
120.3
Potential Energy
Available3
Quads (1015 Btu)
82
49
33
12
526
741
11,443
Source: Data from USDA, SCS, 1967.
aAssumes a 35 percent moisture content, bulk density of 15 Ibs/cu
ft, an average depth of seven feet, and a caloric content of
6,000 Btu/lb.
6.8.3 Current and Future Status
Peat can be used as a source of energy either by direct com-
bustion or conversion to synthetic liquid and gaseous fuels.
Until recently, peat could not compete with the cheaper and more
readily available supplies of petroleum and natural gas. However,
the vast peat resources of the U.S. are now being considered as a
viable source of energy for several reasons (U.S., DOE, Div. of
Fossil Fuel Processing, 1979):
• The U.S. has one of the world's largest reserves of peat;
• The majority of the reserves in the contiguous U.S. are
located in regions that have virtually no other fossil
fuel resource;
6-79
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• Technologies for extraction and direct combustion to
generate electricity are available from Europe;
• Technologies for the conversion of lignite and coal to
substitute natural gas are being developed in the U.S.
and could be used for gasification of peat;
• The chemical properties of peat make it a good feedstock
for gasification processes; and
• There is a relatively large yield of liquids (benzene and
other gasoline blends) from the hydrogasif ication of peat as
compared to other coals.
With existing and continued development of new technologies it
appears that peat could be used to produce sufficient amounts of
substitute natural gas, synthetic liquids, and electricity to meet
limited regional requirements. In those areas that are rich in
fuel-grade peat, electricity from peat-fired power plants could
reduce dependency on oil, help meet future power needs, poten-
tially reduce SOX emissions, and use in-state energy resources
(King et al. , 1980).
Even though peatlands occur worldwide, only a few countries
have developed peat as an energy source (e.g., U.S.S.R. and Ire-
land). Although no peat resources in the United States currently
are used for energy production, programs are being developed in an
attempt to determine the feasibility of using peat as an energy
source. One of the two nonfederal programs, First Colony Farms,
is located in North Carolina. Florida and Louisiana are other
Sunbelt states that have significant deposits of peat and the po-
tential for development.
A. North Carolina^
The major peatlands of North Carolina are found along the
coastal plain and were formed from organic materials derived from
trees, shrubs, and other herbaceous materials associated with a
coastal marsh and woodland complex (Figure 6-9). The deposits are
extensive and appear to have favorable fuel-grade qualities-the
peats are highly decomposed, have a caloric value from 7,000 to
10,000 Btu/lb, and low sulfur and ash content.
Currently, there is extensive use of the peatlands for agri-
culture and forests. However, First Colony Farms (a private cor-
poration) is attempting to develop the peat resources for use in
energy production. It owns approximately 146,000 acres of farm
profiles of North Carolina, Florida, and Louisiana are
based, in large part, on King et al . , 1980.
6-80
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I
CO
SITE OF
FIRST COLONY FARMS
DEVELOPMENT
' NO PEAT HARVEST POTENTIAL
ATLANTIC
OCEAN
- LARGE/MODERATE SEMI-CONTIGUOUS
PEATLANDS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
DEVELOPMENT.
II- MODERATE SIZED PEATLANDS IN
CLOSE TO MODERATE PROXIMITY
TO EACH OTHER
III- ISOLATED PEATLANDS, SMALL BOGS
Figure 6-9: North Carolina Peat Resource Areas
Source: King etal., 1980, p. 4-38.
-------
property with peat reserves ranging from two to eight feet in
depth. The company plans to use an estimated 407 million tons of
peat to supply energy to North Carolina over the next several de-
cades (U.S., DOE, Div. of Fossil Fuel Processing, 1979).
First Colony Farms has been involved in a variety of studies
since 1974 including the feasibility of direct combustion of its
low-sulfur peat to produce electrical energy, peat gasification
experiments, and the possibility of blending peat with fuel oil to
reduce the cost of fuel for drying kilns. Its current development
plan is to construct a large-scale peat harvesting system to sup-
ply a 150 MW electrical power plant. Long range plans call for
peat to fuel a 600 MW power plant to be located at First Colony
Farms. The state of North Carolina has requested that First
Colony Farms prepare an environmental impact assessment on their
developments. Saltwater intrusion and estuarine impacts from
large scale coastal agricultural development already have been
noted and the potential environmental impacts from peat develop-
ment on the estuarine ecosystems are considered to be the prime
environmental issue.
B. Florida
Peatlands cover a large portion of Florida--approximately
three million of the state's 34.6 million acres. The major peat
deposits are found in the Everglades south of Lake Okeechobee
(Figure 6-10). This area contains extensive agricultural develop-
ments, unmanaged lands, and the Everglades National Park. In
addition, the peatlands form a surface aquifer that is important
to the water supply for the park.
The high quality of south Florida's rich muck soil requires
less energy intensive agricultural practices and has resulted in
the use of a substantial portion of the peatlands for agriculture.
However, draining of peatlands for agriculture has resulted in
subsidence of about one inch per year, primarily from oxidation of
the upper layers. Because this has resulted in a net reduction in
agricultural productivity, the large agricultural industry within
the state would be expected to promote increased agricultural pro-
duction from any new lands that are allowed to be developed. It
is not clear what perspective would be taken by the state concern-
ing energy developments as a competing use of the peatlands.
The peat resources within the southern portion of the state
could support a large-scale peat facility, but such a development
could have significant impact on the Everglades and other areas
downslope of the project. Even though there is no regulation
against the use of peat as a fuel, federal agencies and environ-
mental groups have offered strong resistance to further develop-
ment of the state's wetlands and would likely oppose the large-
scale harvesting of peat. In addition, Florida has very strong
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ATLANTIC
OCEAN
I- LARGE/MODERATE
SEMI-CONTIGUOUS
MUCK AND PEATLANDS
II- SMALL PEATLANDS
IN CLOSE TO MODERATE
PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER
111- ISOLATED PEATLANDS,
SMALL BOGS
MUCH OF FLORIDA'S PEAT
IS CLASSIFIED AS MUCK
IN CLASS I AREAS
Figure 6-10: Florida Peat Resource Areas
Source: King et_a_l. , 1980, p. 4-47.
6-83
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energy siting regulations that require consideration of regional
impacts on water resources and wetlands.
Extensive agricultural development (e.g., in Dade county)
already has led to the eutrophication of numerous lakes, loss of
organic soil, and reduction in the water table. Peat harvesting
for energy production could make these problems worse, cause
greater saltwater intrusion, and alter sensitive ecosystems that
provide habitat for many endangered and threatened species. Thus,
while Florida has substantial peat resources, a variety of factors
could limit the energy developments from some of the most attrac-
tive deposits.
C. Louisiana
The amount of peat in Louisiana has not been well documented,
but the resources have been estimated to cover about 1.8 million
acres. The majority of the peatlands are confined to the low-
lying coastal wetlands, the Mississippi Delta area, and the
Atchafalaya Floodway (Figure 6-11). The quality of peat is highly
variable due to the periodic inundation of the peatlands from
freshwater and hurricane flooding and the incorporation of sedi-
ments, clays, silts, and other organic debris with the peat.
Studies to better define the state's peat resources have been
undertaken by the Louisiana Geological Survey and the Coastal
Studies Institute of Louisiana State University.
Unlike other states with significant peat resources, Louisiana
is accustomed to large energy development projects and has a his-
tory of supporting such projects. However, the development of
peatlands for energy production could be constrained by a number
of factors. For example, the state is a net exporter of energy
and the benefits of developing the peat resources may not be
viewed as outweighing the costs. Further, the peat deposits occur
in areas that constitute some of the most valuable and sensitive
environmental areas within the state; large tracts of peatlands
are in or adjacent to state and national wildlife refuges. Energy
development within these areas historically has been for oil and
gas recovery, hydrocarbon storage, and transport corridors; no
large surface exploitation has taken place. Peat harvesting could
add to the environmental problems already present from current
energy developments.
Wetlands protection in Louisiana is very important because of
the intrinsic value of the ecosystem and the commercial value
derived from the fish and shellfish industry. Because of the
inevitable loss of wetland habitat and the potential for producing
offsite impacts, any moderate- to large-scale peat development
program will require strategies for assuring maintenance of the
fish and shellfish resources.
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i
oo
O MAJOR PEAT AREAS
I- LARGE/MODERATE SEMI-CONTIGUOUS
PEATLANOS POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
DEVELOPMENT.
II- MODERATE SUED PEATLANDS IN
CLOSE TO MODERATE PROXIMITY
TO EACH OTHER
NOTE: LARGE BURIED PEAT
DEPOSITS ARE OFFSHORE.
Figure 6-11: Louisiana Peat Resource Areas
Source: King et al., 1980, p. 4-53.
-------
6.8.4 Environmental Issues
As noted in Table 6-33, a wide range of environmental issues
is associated with the development and utilization of peat as a
source of energy. The most significant potential environmental
issues are likely to be related to harvesting and preparation and
to the conversion of peat into energy—either through direct com-
bustion or through the production of synthetic fuels.
The nature and degree of potential air quality impacts depends
on the particular technologies used in the various phases of the
peat utilization process. Air quality in peat-rich areas typi-
cally is better than for many other areas and significant local
air quality degradation could result from harvesting, handling,
and storage activities. Dust from wind-blown dry peat is the
major potential pollutant associated with these activities and
could be very difficult to control if the milled peat harvesting
method is used (Williams Bros. Engineering, 1979). Direct com-
bustion of peat could increase the total suspended particulate
concentration of the surrounding area. Further, although peat
typically contains far less sulfur than older coals, it can con-
tain significant concentrations of heavy metals. The more vola-
tile of these heavy metals could be released to the atmosphere
during direct combustion if emission controls are not adequate.
Heavy metals would not be a problem in the synthetic fuels pro-
duced from peat (e.g., through gasification); however, they would
be concentrated in waste sludges which could lead to disposal
problems (U.S., DOE, Div. of Fossil Fuel Processing, 1979).
Because of the close relationship between peat bogs and water,
the development of peat resources has the potential for severe
impacts on surrounding water resources, in terms of both quantity
and quality. In development projects that will require the bog to
be drained, the overall hydrologic balance of the area will be
shifted and the removal of the peat could permanently disrupt the
location of local water tables. Also, a water quantity impact
will likely result from the requirements of the energy production
facilities (steam-electric and peat gasification plants) associ-
ated with the peat development.
Peatland development will require the discharge of water from
bog draining and wastewater from energy processing activities.
The discharge of these waters to other water sources could signif-
icantly change the character of the receiving waters. These
changes could affect the downstream aquatic and estuarine ecosys-
tems and could potentially limit downstream water uses (King et
al., 1980). Because of the characteristics of the drainage and
process waters, inadequate controls or accidental releases could
reduce the pH of the receiving stream, create oxygen deficiencies
due to high BOD and COD, increase eutrophication from high nutri-
ent levels, and introduce potentially toxic levels of heavy metals
into the receiving stream.
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TABLE 6-33: SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES OF PEAT DEVELOPMENT
01
I
00
Production
Stage
Harvesting
and
Preparation
Conversion
End Use
Water
Quality
Alteration of
wetland hydrogoloy
Saltwater intrusion
Increased organic
loading
Thermal discharges
Organic and
inorganic waste
discharges
Potential spills
Air
Quality
Dust
Emissions of
criteria pollutants
Contribution to
greenhouse effect
Potentially in-
creased hydro-
carbon emissions
from some liquid
fuels
Land Use
and
Solid Waste
Destruction or
modification of
bogs and wet-
lands
Habitat
fragmentation
Habitat
fragmentation
Disposal of
process wastes
Safety
and
Health
Hazards
from
operation
of har-
vesting
equipment
Potential
exposure to
carcinogens
in some
processes
Contamina-
tion from
product
spills
Contribution to
greenhouse effect
-------
The activities associated with peat harvesting, in combination
with the transition of the peatlands from a natural habitat to an
unknown condition, could generate physical and chemical changes
that would affect the aquatic and estuarine ecosystems, destroy
natural vegetation and eliminate wildlife habitat (Moore and
Bellamy, 1975; King et al., 1980). For example, preliminary stud-
ies conducted to identify aquatic habitats and populations partic-
ularly affected by peat development in North Carolina have indi-
cated detrimental consequences from changes in water quality. The
expected impacts of peat harvesting on the riverine areas and
sounds of the coastal zone include degradation of sport and com-
mercial fisheries, more frequent kills, and continual recurrence
of fish disease outbreaks. Some displacement of saltwater species
could occur due to increased runoff from the peatlands. Peat min-
ing adjacent to lakes is expected to drop water Levels, reduce
water quality, and potentially reduce certain fish populations
(Kornegay, 1981). In addition, since the peat harvesting process
involves the complete removal of all existing forest and shrub
vegetation, habitat for certain terrestrial species would be eli-
minated (Critcher, 1981).
Many of the potential negative impacts of peat development
could be mitigated through proper harvesting techniques, drainage
control, and careful choice of land reclamation options. However,
if the important environmental issues are not satisfactorily re-
solved, peat utilization could be severely constrained in the
Sunbelt.
6.9 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY RESOURCES
6.9.1 Introduction
The potential for geothermal energy stems from the enormous
heat contained in the 260 billion cubic miles of rock at or near
its melting point just below the earth's crust. Geothermal heat
can be recovered from hydrothermal reservoirs, geopressured zones,
and from rock in areas where the geothermal gradient is higher
than normal. Heat from these resources can be used directly
(e.g., heat for homes and greenhouses, drying crops and wood,
industrial processes), or converted to electrical or mechanical
energy. Given current technologies, only a very small portion of
this thermal energy can be economically utilized.
To date, the Geysers in California (800 MW from natural steam)
is the only commercial application of geothermal resources for
electricity generation in the U.S. The Sunbelt, particularly
Texas, Louisiana, New Mexico, and selected areas along the Atlan-
tic Coast, contain all three.types of geothermal resources. While
geothermal resources are not likely to add significantly to over-
all energy production in the South, they can contribute to the
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energy available at the local level. This section will discuss
the potential for development of geothermal resources in the Sun-
belt, current and projected activities, and the environmental
issues of geothermal energy development.
6.9.2 Current and Future Status
As described in Table 6-34, the goals for geothermal energy
production in the year 2000 include electricity production
equivalent to 2.2 quads of fossil fuel input, direct heat use
equivalent to one quad, and methane production of three quads
(IGCC, 1980). These goals assume an aggressive federal program
TABLE 6-34: NATIONAL GEOTHERMAL UTILIZATION GOALS
(quads/year)
Resource Type 1985 1990 2000
Hydro thermal
Electric Applications
Direct Thermal Applications
Geopressured
Electric Applications
Direct Thermal Applicationsa
Methane0
Hot Dry Rock (Estimates Only)b
Electric Aplications
Direct Thermal Applications
Total (rounded)
0.24
0.1
0.001
-
0.02
0.001
0.001
0.4
0.6
0.2
0.006
-
0.1
0.003
0.001
0.9
2.0
1.0
0.16
-
3.0
0.06
0.007
6.2
Source: Adapted from IGCC, 1980, p. 11.
aAs yet, the markets for nonelectric applications of geopressured
energy sources are not well enough defined to establish meaningful
objectives.
^These are not yet set as goals; only estimates of production are
possible at this time.
cThese values are highly variable due to the lack of information
concerning the amount of methane contained in the brine.
6-89
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and major involvement on the part of the private sector. In the
late 1970's federal and private support for geothermal development
was strong and growing. More recently, federal support has been
curtailed and it is not yet clear how the private sector will
react to this cutback. Consequently, estimates of future use of
geothermal resources are tenuous at best. However, some states in
the South, particularly Texas, are moving ahead with the formula-
tion of geothermal research and development plans.
A. Hydrothermal Reservoirs
Hydrothermal systems include steam and hot water trapped in
fractured rocks or permeable sediments by impermeable surface
layers. A hydrothermal system is classified as either water- or
vapor-dominated according to the principal physical state of the
fluid. While little potential exists for the development of
vapor-dominated reservoirs within the South, exploration and de-
velopment of water dominated reservoirs is possible.
Molten or recently solidified rock at depths of 15,000 to
35,000 feet supplies the heat for hot water reservoirs. Water
circulates throughout the reservoir and removes heat from the deep
hot rock by convection. The temperature of the water is nearly
uniform and can reach 350°C and higher.
At present, no commercial electricity is produced in the U.S.
from hot water geothermal sources. A number of demonstration pro-
jects are underway, however. In May 1980, construction began on a
facility at Valles Caldera, New Mexico, which will be the nation's
first commercial scale demonstration plant (50 MW) using hot water
to produce electricity. Test wells at the Valles Caldera facility
indicate a reservoir capable of supporting 400 MW of electricity
generation. Operation is expected to begin in 1983.
As can be seen from Figure 6-12, the South has a much greater
potential for the development of low to moderate temperature re-
sources for uses such as direct heating, than for the production
of electricity from high temperature reservoirs. For example, six
areas of potential hydrothermal resources have been identified
along the Atlantic Coastal Plain: Savannah-Brunswick, Georgia;
Charleston and Georgetown, South Carolina; and Wilmington, Kins-
ton, and Eastern Shore, North Carolina. By the mid 1990's, these
areas are expected to produce about 0.1 quad of energy per year
for consumption by the private, commercial, and industrial sectors
(Toth and Paddison, 1977).
In central and southern Arkansas, hydrothermal resources are
projected to produce about 74 milliquads per year to be used for
residential and commercial space heating, hot water, and indus-
trial processes (Fox, 1977). Hot water has been used for a number
of years to heat greenhouses in Lordsberg, New Mexico.
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liilLJ
-------
The central Texas area (Figure 6-13) has been the most active
geothermal resource region in Texas. For example, a high school
in Cotulla was designed and built to facilitate use of heat energy
from a warm water well drilled on the school grounds. A geother-
mal space heating demonstration system currently is under con-
struction at a hospital in Marlin, Texas and is expected to dis-
place approximately 84 percent of the hospital's average annual
natural gas consumption (Davis et al., 1981). The New Mexico
Energy Institute (1980) has estimated that by the year 2000, 0.25
quads per year of geothermal energy will be supplied from the
Central Texas resource region. This could affect 357 cities with
a total population of 4.5 million people.
B. Geopressured Zones
Geopressured zones consist of water at higher than normal tem-
peratures and pressures trapped in aquifers sealed between imper-
meable layers of clay and shale. The deep sedimentary basins of
the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts are underlain by thick beds of
water-filled sandstones and contain the principal geopressured
zones in the U.S. (Sacarto, 1976). These formations underlie an
offshore band at least 100 miles wide and about 750 miles long,
with an equal area onshore (Westhusing, 1980).
The geothermal reservoirs along the Gulf coast have two char-
acteristics generally not found in other geothermal formations.
The Gulf Coast reservoirs have unusually high pressures (5,000 to
13,000 pounds per square inch) due to the weight of the overlying
sediments (House, Johnson, and Towse 1975). Further, the brine
generally is saturated with natural gas (methane), an important
supplement to energy production. Studies have indicated that
approximately 30 to 45 cubic feet of gas may be dissolved in each
barrel of water (McNamara and Kaufman, 1979); however, test wells
have produced 20 to 50 cubic feet per barrel.
The geopressured resources along the Texas and Louisiana
coasts are especially attractive because three types of energy
could be produced: electrical (from high temperature fluids),
mechanical or hydraulic (from the high pressure), and chemical
(from the natural gas). While not much electricity production is
expected, other potential uses for geopressured resources include:
Frasch technique for sulfur production, process heat application,
coal desulfurization and preparation, lumber and concrete products
kilning, hydroponics greenhousing, grain drying, and space heating
and cooling (RFC, 1979).
Development of geopressured zones currently is at the explora-
tory, resource-assessment stage. Further, a number of uncertain-
ties exist with respect to the recoverability of the energy con-
tained in geopressured zones including: (1) the size of the
potential resource; (2) feasibility and economics of resource
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EL PA
OWNSVILLE
Figure 6-13: Texas Geothermal Resource Regions
Source: Texas Energy and Natural Resources Advisory
Council, n.d.
6-93
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recovery; and (3) the magnitude and cost of environmental consid-
erations (Westhusing, 1980).
As evident from the estimates displayed in Table 6-35, projec-
tions concerning energy resources in the Gulf Coast geopressured
zone are highly variable. Compared to more recent estimates,
early estimates were extremely high. For example, in 1975 the
USGS estimated the energy available from dissolved methane to be
about 24,000 quads, with an additional 43,000 quads from thermal
energy, and mechanical energy equivalent to 198 quads. The USGS
has since revised its estimates for methane (3,220 quads) and
thermal resources (5,800 quads) to include only the most favorable
onshore sandstone reservoirs.
The uncertainties associated with the geopressured resource
lead to wide variations in estimates even when considering recov-
erable energy. Recent estimates of total recoverable methane vary
from 50 to 5,000 quads due to uncertainties about the salinity of
pore fluids (Davis et a1., 1981). A study conducted by the
Southwest Research Institute (SWRI) challenges even the most re-
cent estimates and concludes that the production of natural gas
and thermal energy from the 20 most favorable areas of Texas and
Louisiana may be only a fraction of what once was thought recov-
erable (OGJ, 1981i). SWRI estimates the recoverable dissolved
methane from known geopressured zones at only 7.6 quads with an
additional 12.6 quads from potential thermal energy.
While disagreements continue about the amount of energy avail-
able from the geopressured zones in the South, the potential ener-
gy resources do not appear to be as great as once thought. How-
ever, exploration is continuing in order to define the resource
and locate the most favorable sites for development. Fourteen
areas onshore in Texas have been identified as geopressured fair-
ways and drilling of test wells has begun. Exploration activities
also are taking place in Louisiana by drilling new wells and using
wells of opportunity—nonproductive oil and gas wells which ap-
proach or penetrate the geopressured zone.
C. Hot Dry Rock and Normal-Gradient Geothermal Heat
As the upper portion of the earth's crust is penetrated from
the surface, the temperature normally increases about 30°C per
kilometer (C/km), i.e., the normal geothermal gradient. Higher
than normal geothermal gradients (at least 40°C/km) are often
encountered where the earth's crust is thin or has recently been
disturbed by volcanism or faulting. This offers the possibility
of reaching higher temperature hot dry rock with a shallower, less
expensive well. The cost advantage of these shallower wells is
sufficiently great so that a distinction commonly is made between
hot dry rock and the normal gradient.
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TABLE 6-35: ESTIMATES OF TOTAL GEOPRESSURED RESOURCE, ONSHORE/
OFFSHORE THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA GULF COAST
(in quads)
Source Thermal Mechanical Gas Total
Brown-Hudson (1976) — — 60,000 60,000
Dorfman-Texas (1978) — — 5,735 5,735
Hawkins-LSU (1977)
(Louisiana Only)a 19.5 1.2 13.6 34.3
Jones-LSU (1976)
(Sands and Shales) — — 100,000 100,000
Hise-LSU (1977) — — 3,000 3,000
Papadopulos-USGS Circ. 726
(1976) 43,331 198.0 23,927 67,456
(Sands and Shales
Assessed Onshore Only)
Lewin & Associates — — 1,100 1,100
Wallace~USGS Circ. 790
(1978)
(Assessed Onshore 5,800 —
Sandstone Only)
(Assessed Offshore 5,200
Sandstone Only)
Bernard (1978)a
EPRI-SWRI (1980)a 12.6
Gregory et al.-BEG (1980)
(Onshore Sandstone, Texas
Only)
National Petroleum Council
(1980)a
3,220
2,800
54
7.6
688.9
81
9,100
8,000
54
20.
688.
81
2
9
Source: Gregory et al., 1980; SWRI, 1980; U.S., DOE, Div. of
Geothermal Energy, 1979, 1980.
aOnly recoverable amounts calculated.
6-95
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Extracting heat from hot dry rock is accomplished by injecting
cool water through one drill hole, allowing it to circulate until
it reaches a hot enough temperature, and then recovering it as
steam or hot water. The main technical barrier is the lack of a
method for artificially creating a large permeable region through
which the water can circulate before it is withdrawn and used.
Within the South, New Mexico appears to have the greatest po-
tential for the development of hot dry rock resources. The fea-
sibility of using fluid pressure to create a fracture system con-
necting two well bores has been demonstrated at Fenton Hill in
northcentral New Mexico (NRG, CONAES, 1979). The well was drilled
to 3,050 meters (10,000 ft) with a bottomhole temperature of
205°C. The test facility has been in operation since 1977 and it
is the first time electricity (6 MW) has been produced from hot
dry rock (Energy Insider, 1980). A second system drilled to
15,000 feet is designed to produce between 20 and 50 MW of thermal
heat that can be converted into 3 to 10 MW of electric power.
Testing of the facility is scheduled for 1988 (BNA, 1980b). While
hot dry rock resources may be important on a localized basis,
their use will not be widespread or important to the Sunbelt as a
whole.
It appears likely that the technical and economic questions will
be resolved within the next few years and an experimental project
to use hot dry rock resources on a commercial scale will prove
feasible by the end of the 1980's (IGCC, 1980). Presumably, the
techniques used to extract heat from hot dry rocks could be ex-
tended to greater depths when and if it becomes economical to use
heat from normal-gradient resources.
6.9.3 Environmental Issues
Table 6-36 summarizes some of the environmental issues associ-
ated with geothermal energy production. The major constraints to
geothermal development in the South include airborne emissions,
brine disposal, subsidence due to production of high volumes of
fluid, and the potential for induced seismicity.
When water or steam is used in hydrothermal systems, non-
condensable gases such as ammonia, boron, and hydrogen sulfide
(H2S) may result in environmental problems. For example, H2S is
present in 20 to 25 percent of all hydrothermal resource systems
(Whitaker, 1980). Geopressured well tests have indicated that
concentrations of noncondensable gases, except for ammonia, were
quite low compared to hydrothermal systems. However, experience
with natural gas wells suggests that H2S levels could vary signi-
ficantly and potential problems would be site specific (U.S., DOE,
Asst. Sec. for Energy Technology and Asst. Sec. for Environment,
1979). While H2S emissions are not likely to cause significant
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TABLE 6-36: SELECTED ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES OF GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT
Production
Stage
Exploration
and
drilling
Steam or
heat
production
Electricity
generation
Water Air
Quality Quality
Potential aquifer
contamination
Brine disposal
Potential thermal Particulates and
discharges sulfur compound
emission (H2S)
Potential minerals
discharge Minor radon
releases
Brine disposal
requirements Odor
Ground water
contamination
Thermal discharge Thermal release
Land Use
and
Solid Waste
Mud disposal
Ecosystem
disruption from
well drilling
activities
Potential
sludge
disposal
Subsidence
Safety
and
Health
Accidents
and
blowout
risks
Steam
hazards
Steam
hazards
Other
Induced
seismicity
Local noise
disturbance
Local noise
disturbance
Local noise
disturbance
Some sulfur com-
pound releases
during steam
venting (H2S)
Potential
makeup water
requirement
-------
ecological or health effects, its odor presents a major nuisance
(U.S., DOE, 1978.)
The disposal of spent geopressured fluids (brine) is one of
the most significant environmental concerns. These fluids are
high in total dissolved solids (1,000 to 10,000 parts per million
[ppm]) and boron concentrations (20 to 60 ppm). Because of the
great depths and pressures involved, it may not be economically
feasible to inject the fluids back into the original reservoir.
Possible options for disposal include discharge into existing sa-
line bodies of water, injection into subsurface saline aquifers,
and disposal to surface water such as the Gulf of Mexico. Each is
feasible but with its own set of environmental risks (U.S., DOE,
Asst. Sec. for Energy Technology and Asst. Sec. for Environment,
1979). Further, geothermal brines could be discharged accidental-
ly at the surface due to well blowouts, pipeline leaks or breaks,
failure at storage facilities, and through accidents in the gas
separation and power generation facilities. Well blowouts are the
most unpredictable and potentially are of the greatest magnitude.
Projected well flow rates range from 40,000 to 128,000 barrels of
brine per day. A blowout could remain out of control for months,
releasing 4 to 16 acre-feet of brine per day (RFC, 1979).
Surface and ground water pollution resulting from the disposal
of excess steam condensate and water is also a problem for hydro-
thermal systems. The hotter reservoirs have a higher salt content
which requires reinjection rather than discharge into surface wa-
ters. These saline fluids will require treatment prior to rein-
jection in order to reduce the high maintenance costs associated
with scaling, precipitation, and plugging. This leads to the need
to dispose of large volumes of sludge which could result in sur-
face and ground water contamination if sludge disposal is inade-
quate (U.S., DOE, Off. of Environmental Assessments, 1981).
The possibility of subsidence is another potentially serious
consequence of the development of hydrothermal and geopressured
resources. The withdrawal of large volumes of liquid from the
geopressured reservoirs could cause the compaction of the reser-
voir strata, resulting in land subsidence. This could be an es-
pecially serious problem along the Gulf Coast since large areas of
land are only a few feet above sea level and flooding could result
(U.S., DOE, Asst. Sec. for Energy Technology and Asst. Sec. for
Environment, 1979).
The relatively cooler hydrothermal reservoirs need to withdraw
large volumes of water to produce a given amount of heat. This
could result in subsidence and disruption of the aquifer. While
injection of spent fluids back into the reservoir may aid in waste
disposal and lessen the subsidence problem, the impact of reinjec-
tion is uncertain. It is possible that uplifting may occur around
the injection wells while subsidence occurs in the area of the
production wells.
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The withdrawal and reinjection of geothermal fluids may in-
crease the rate of seismic events. Many of the potential areas
for hydrothermal development are located in regions with a high
frequency of naturally occurring, seismic events. On the other
hand, the Gulf Coast generally is considered to be an aseismic
region. However, Atherton et al. (1976, Vol. 2) reported earth-
quake events in the coastal areas of Texas and Louisiana that
possibly were associated with oil and gas production. The prin-
cipal causes of these events, which may be of importance in the
development of geopressured resources, are thought to be the pro-
duction of geopressured fluids and reinjection of spent fluids
(U.S., DOE, Off. of Environmental Assessments, 1981).
In summary the use of geothermal resources could be important
at the local level in many areas of the South. However, the de-
velopment of these resources is dependent, in part, on solutions
to the constraints imposed by H2S emissions, fluid disposal, land
subsidence, and seismicity.
6.10 SUMMARY
It is not possible to precisely predict the energy future of
the Sunbelt and this chapter is not an attempt to do so. Rather,
the information presented describes the current status of energy
consumption and production in the South, expected consumption and
production trends, and the environmental issues associated with
current and potential energy developments.
Not only is the Sunbelt expected to continue its growth in
population and economic development, but there is also little
doubt that the southern regions will continue to play a key role
in the nation's energy future. In 1979, the Sunbelt states pro-
duced approximately 60 percent of the nation's crude oil, 82 per-
cent of the natural gas liquids, 87 percent of the natural gas,
and 29 percent of the coal. On the other hand, the South ac-
counted for about 28 percent of the total U.S. crude oil consump-
tion, 47 percent of the natural gas consumption, and 25 percent of
the coal consumption. Thus, even though the Sunbelt is very
diverse and includes both energy producing and consuming states,
overall the Sunbelt is an energy exporting region and is likely to
remain so for the foreseeable future.
The South's energy resources are not infinite and the percen-
tage of total U.S. energy resources supplied by the South is
expected to continue to decline over the next 20 to 30 years.
This is due, in large part, to the maturing of the South's oil and
natural gas fields and the expansion of production of resources
from other regions--for example, western coal and Alaskan oil.
Although petroleum and natural gas production in the Sunbelt is
expected to decline, enhanced recovery techniques and production
6-99
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from unexplored areas and from unconventional sources could stabi-
lize production and possibly lead to increases in production.
Unprecendented exploration and development activities are taking
place throughout the Sunbelt—in the Gulf Coast areas of Alabama,
Florida, and Mississippi; along the Eastern Overthrust Belt, in
the Anadarko Basin of western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle;
and in the Tuscaloosa Trend region of Louisiana.
A key component of federal energy policy is a shift away from
the use of oil and natural gas and a rapid increase in the use of
coal. The Sunbelt contains about 26.5 billion tons of recoverable
coal reserves and accounts for 29 percent of the total U.S. coal
production. Although the proportion of U.S. production from the
Sunbelt is expected to decline slightly over the next 20 years,
absolute tonnage produced is projected to increase by 65 percent—
from 240 million tons to 396 million tons. Kentucky, Texas and
New Mexico are expected to account for approximately 88 percent of
the coal mined in the Sunbelt in the year 2000.
Nuclear power also is a major source of energy for some parts
of the Sunbelt. Uncertainty about future energy demands, substan-
tial public opposition, rising construction costs, and new regula-
tory requirements following Three Mile Island have lead to a
cautious wait-and-see attitude for many utility planners. How-
ever, the slowdown in construction of nuclear power plants in the
southeast portion of the Sunbelt has not taken place to the same
degree as in other regions of the country. Alabama, Florida,
South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee account for
27 percent of the operating units and 31 percent of the total U.S.
nuclear generating capacity. Nuclear power will continue to be
important to Region 4, particularly in the Tennessee Valley
Authority area and in the Carolinas. All new power generating
capacity coming on line for the TVA region over the next ten years
will come from nuclear power. Although nuclear power is not
expected to play a-major role as a source of energy in Region 6,
northwest New Mexico and southcentral Texas are important uranium
mining and milling centers. In addition, the salt domes of the
Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast are being considered as storage
sites for high level radioactive wastes.
Other energy developments taking place in the Sunbelt are not
expected to contribute significantly to national or regional
energy supplies in the near future. However, locally important
developments are likely to take place. For example, in the
Sunbelt, the production of synthetic fuels from coal is expected
to center around the coal fields of Kentucky and the lignite belt
of Texas. Over half of the proposed or planned synthetic fuels
from coal projects in the Sunbelt are concentrated in Kentucky and
along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast. The Devonian shale
resources in Kentucky and Tennessee are under development as a
source of oil. The forests and prime cropland of Region 4 make it
the most likely area for the development of biomass resources for
6-100
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energy. The use of peat as a source of energy will probably be
confined to North Carolina and possibly Florida and Louisiana.
The development of geothermal resources is underway in New Mexico,
along the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast, and in scattered locations
along the coasts of Georgia and North and South Carolina. How-
ever, the large scale development of these various energy re-
sources is surrounded by a great deal of uncertainty.
The potential environmental impacts associated with energy
developments in the Sunbelt are varied and extensive. The extent
of some future energy developments could be constrained by
attempts to balance these developments with efforts to protect the
environment. This particularly could be a problem in those areas
likely to experience multiple energy developments. For example,
Kentucky and the Gulf Coast of Texas could be impacted by increas-
ed coal mining, synthetic fuel production from coal, oil and gas
exploration and production, additional coal-fired power plants,
and conversion of biomass to liquid fuels. In addition, the Gulf
Coast area has the potential for the development of geothermal
resources and Kentucky could experience the development of its oil
shale resources. The individual air, water, and land impacts of
any one or two of these developments might be manageable. How-
ever, frequently the potential cumulative impacts of the range of
possible energy developments in an area are not fully considered.
The effects of these multiple energy developments and their cumu-
lative impacts are one of the most important issues associated
with the development of the Sunbelt's energy resources.
In addition to those areas likely to experience cumulative
impacts, many areas may experience negative environmental conse-
quences from the increased production of current resources. For
example, oil and gas drilling activity has reached an unprece-
dented level in the major producing states of Region 6. In Okla-
homa, approximately 300 communities depend on ground water to meet
all of their water needs, and about 80 percent of the water used
for irrigation comes from underground sources. Virtually all of
the ground water supplies are located in the western half of the
state, an area of increasingly heavy drilling activity. This in-
creased drilling activity could lead to the contamination of water
resources resulting from the inadequate disposal of drilling muds
and brines.
Increased degradation of air quality and land use problems
could result from the development of the Texas lignite belt. Even
with the use of control technologies, the burning of coal can re-
lease substantial quantities of sulfur, nitrogen, and particulate
matter. Between 1979 and 1988, Texas is scheduled to add 29 coal-
and lignite-fired units that would burn 124 million tons of coal
and lignite a year, in addition to the 47 million tons currently
consumed by existing plants. Further, a number of synthetic fuel
plants are planned for Texas. Current regulatory requirements
could make it difficult to site the increasing number of coal
6-101
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^ired power plants and synthetic fuel plants, and thus inhibit the
development of these energy sources in Texas.
One of the major current and future environmental problems
that is pervasive throughout the Sunbelt is the disposition of
solid waste products from the various energy developments and
facilities. This includes such things as spent nuclear fuel and
low level radioactive wastes; scrubber sludge from coal-fired
power plants; brine and drilling mud from oil, gas, and geothermal
drilling; ash from coal synfuel plants; and spent shale from oil
shale processing plants. For example, it has been estimated that:
• A well 8,500 to 11,500 feet deep requires 1,200 to 2,500
barrels of drilling mud;
• Over a 30 year period, a 50,000 bbl/d coal synfuels plant
would produce enough ash to cover one square mile of land
with waste piled 50 feet high;
• For a 50,000 bbl/d oil shale plant, there will be enough
spent shale generated in one month to cover a square mile
with 2 feet of wastes; and
• A typical nuclear plant (1,000 MW) produces about 30 tons
of spent fuel.per year. By the year 2000, demand for away-
from-reactor storage capacity for spent fuel is projected
to be over 16,000 metric tons.
The inadequate disposal of these and other solid waste products
of energy developments could seriously impact surface and ground
water supplies in many areas of the Sunbelt. This particularly
could be a problem in those areas expected to experience multiple
energy developments.
6-102
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Technology. 1980a. Environmental, Operational, and Economic
Aspects of Thirteen Selected Energy Technologies. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., EPA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research
and Development (ORD), Strategic Analysis Group. 1980b.
"Environmental Outlook, Briefing Report for Region VI."
Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental Protection Agency
U.S., General Accounting Office (GAO), Comptroller General. 1979.
Analysis of Current Trends in U.S. Petroleum and Natural Gas
Production,Report to the Congress.Washington,D.C.:U.S.,
GAO.
U.S., Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service. 1980.
The Energy Factbook; Data on Energy Resources, Reserves,
Production, Consumption, Prices, Processing, and Industry
Structure,prepared at the request of the Subcommittee on
Energy and Power of the Committee on Interstate and Foreign
Commerce, U.S. House of Representatives. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). 1975. Reactor Safety
Study; An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial
Nuclear Power Plants. Springfield, Va.: National Technical
Information Service.
U.S., Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). 1981. "Commercial
Nuclear Power Reactors in the United States." Oak Ridge,
Tenn.: U.S., Department of Energy, Technical Information
Center.
U.S., President's Commission for a National Agenda for the
Eighties. 1980. Energy, Natural Resources, and the Environ-
ment in the Eighties, Report of the Panel on Energy, Natural
Resources, and the Environment. Washington, D.C.: Government
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Vandewater, Bob. 1982. "Expert Sees State Crude Output
Increasing." The Sunday Oklahoman, January 10, p. B-10.
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Westhusing, Keith. 1980. "Status of the Geopressured Geothermal
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Commission Committee Bulletin 22 (December):31-35.
Wett, Ted. 1981. "Synfuels Offer Challenging Future." Oil and
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\AThitaker, Ralph. 1980. "Tapping the Main Stream of Geothermal
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Wilkins, G. E. 1977. Industrial Process Profile for Environ-
mental Use, Oil and Gas Production Industry. Austin, Tex.:
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Williams Brothers Engineering. 1979. "Peat and the Environment."
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Chicago: Institute of Gas Technology.
6-114
-------
CHAPTER 7
THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
HIGHLIGHTS
Status and Trends
1. The chemical industry is the largest manufacturing indus-
try in the Sunbelt. It is concentrated in Texas and
Louisiana which house a very large proportion of the pet-
rochemical industry; in Tennessee and Kentucky which pro-
vide a wide variety of chemicals; and in Florida which
specializes in phosphate and other fertilizers. Most
other Sunbelt states also show substantial growth in
shipments of chemicals.
2. There is good evidence that the chemical industry will
continue to grow in the Sunbelt for the foreseeable
future, and thus will remain an important driving force
for the economic development of the Sjanbelt.
3. Most new refining capacity in the last ten years has been
built in the Gulf area.
4. Virtually all new capacity in ethylene, propylene, and
aromatics—the main feedstocks for petrochemical manufac-
ture—has been sited in Texas and Louisiana, thus, ensur"-
ing that most plants for mainstream bulk chemicals will
follow suit.
5. The growth of Sunbelt markets for consumer goods has at-
tracted manufacturers of higher value added products such
as soap and detergents, paints and varnishes, etc.
6. The growth in output will increase the volume of gaseous,
liquid, and solid effluents. However, the implementation
of environmental protection legislation passed in the
1970's and the technology developed by the industry to
cope with these effluents will help to reduce the impacts
which would have occurred in the absence of such legisla-
tion.
7-i
-------
• Geographic Areas
7. The Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana will be most af-
fected by the growth of the chemical industry in the com-
ing two decades. There will be some spreading of the in-
dustry along the Gulf Coast in Mississippi, Alabama, and
Florida, and probably along the South Atlantic coast.
Phosphate manufacture in Florida and the inland concen-
tration of chemical plants in Tennessee and Kentucky are
also areas where environmental issues are associated with
chemical industry operations.
• Key Problems and Issues
8. Environmental concerns as a result of the projected
doubling of the capacity of the chemical industry in the
next 20 to 30 years include the following:
• Rapid urban development around the large concen-
trations of chemical plants along the Gulf Coast
may lead to inadequate development of the necessary
infrastructure in terms of housing, schools, roads,
social services, etc.
• Cumulative effects of gaseous and liquid effluents on
air and fresh water quality in and around dense con-
centrations of chemical plants may increase public
health risks.
• Traffic congestion and hazards from toxic chemicals
on roads and navigable rivers will be increased due
to the increasing volume of chemical shipments.
• With expanding production, there may be a shortage in
hazardous waste management facilities and increased
pollution from old, substandard facilities.
9. Policy measures which may help to reduce the probability
of the above adverse impacts occurring are:
• The adoption of long-term planning procedures by local
and state authorities in cooperation with the chemi-
cal industry to allow for a sustained growth of exist-
ing centers of chemical manufacturing.
• Adoption of long term planning procedures by govern-
ment authorities and industry for the identification
and development of new sites for industrial growth
along the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts.
7-ii
-------
State and local policies to enhance the development
of hazardous waste management industries, including
effective regulation and monitoring of hazardous
waste disposal sites.
Cooperation among EPA, state and local authorities,
and the industry in the implementation of the TSCA
and RCRA.
Federal government policies which encourage the in-
dustry to maintain its efforts in research, develop-
ment, and innovation in the areas of environmental
protection.
7-iii
-------
CHAPTER 7
THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
7.1 INTRODUCTION
The chemical industry is among the most important sectors of
manufacturing in the industrially developed countries. Although
it is expected that the high rates of growth experienced by the
chemical industry in the European Economic Communities, the U.S.,
and Japan during the 1960's and 1970's (8-10 percent per year)
will be reduced, the chemical industry will remain a growth in-
dustry for the foreseeable future with an annual growth rate of
around 5 percent.
This confidence for the continuing growth of the chemical
industry in the next 20 to 30 years springs from the fact that
chemicals are essential for the basic needs of human societies:
food production (fertilizers, insecticides, pesticides, food ad-
ditives), clothing (synthetic fibers, dyestuffs), shelter (plas-
tic materials), and health (pharmaceuticals). It is not, there-
fore, expected that market saturation will be attained for all
those sectors in any country however high its per capita income.
Other important considerations which lead to the same conclusion
are that the industry produces both durable and nondurable goods
and that the energy content of most chemical products, however
large it is, is less than that of competing materials: cement,
glass, aluminum, steel, etc.
For the specific case of the U.S. chemical industry the
forecasts for its continuing growth are further supported by:
• The outstanding innovation record in terms of new
products and new manufacturing processes;
• The availability of most raw materials, and partic-
ularly of natural gas, oil and coal; and
• The multinational character of many U.S. chemical firms
which ensures market outlets worldwide.
A large segment of the chemical industry is situated in the
South. It is the most important industry within the manufactur-
ing sector in terms of employment, value added, and capital in-
vestment. All evidence in projections for the time horizon of
7-1
-------
this study, particularly those for capital investment, indicate
that the chemical industry will expand in the future and will be-
come one of the major driving forces for the economic development
of the Sunbelt. This will be particularly the case in Texas,
Louisiana, and possibly other states along the Gulf and South
Atlantic coasts.
Important environmental considerations resulting from the ex-
pected growth of the chemical industry in the South may be re-
lated to:
• The fast growth of urban centers in Texas and Louisiana;
• The cumulative effects of pollutants in areas of dense
concentrations of chemical plants;
• The need for*safe disposal of hazardous wastes produced;
• The need for process water; and
• The transport of chemical products and waste.
7.2 CURRENT STATUS
The first generation of chemical manufacturing centers is in
the coal mining areas along the banks of navigable rivers and
lakes. The second generation centers are generally established
in the proximity of large ports and oil refineries in deltas and
estuaries of navigable rivers.
The chemical industry in the U.S. is concentrated in the
following areas:
1. Around the Great Lakes and along the Ohio River in
Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Indiana (Region 5).
2. In the Appalachian coal mining areas in Pennsylvania,
Virginia, and West Virginia (Region 3), Tennessee and
Kentucky (Region 4).
3. In New Jersey and New York (Region 2).
4. Along the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana (Region 6).
Some other states, notably California and the Carolinas,
have substantial chemical manufactures which are not, however,
of the size and importance of the four mentioned above.
7-2
-------
7.2.1 Geographical Distribution and Product Specialization in
the Chemical Industry
Table 7-1 presents data on shipments and on capital invest-
ment from the 1977 Census of Manufactures for each state of fed-
eral regions 4 and 6 and for 11 other states outside our study
area which have the largest chemical industries.
The following observations can be noted:
• Texas and Louisiana in the South and New Jersey in
the North are the most important centers in terms of
shipments.
• Texas with 2,361 million dollars and Louisiana with
1,613 million dollars are the most important centers
in terms of capital investment.
• Considerable investments were made in New Jersey,
Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and New York.
• In terms of dollar value of shipments and invest-
ments, three and four Sunbelt states respectively
are among the top ten.
• When shipments and capital investment in chemicals
are expressed as percentages of those for the whole
manufacturing sector, seven out of the ten top states
in shipments, and eight out of the ten top states in
investments are in the Sunbelt.
The Sunbelt states, with the exception of Texas, have smaller
manufacturing sectors than most of the northern states of the
sample. The fact that eight out of the thirteen Sunbelt states
invested more than 19 percent of their total manufacturing in-
vestment in chemical plants emphasizes the economic importance
of chemicals in the South.
Tables 7-2 and 7-3 present the geographic distribution of
chemical manufactures in terms of seven groups of products:
organic, inorganic, agricultural chemicals, plastics, drugs,
soaps and detergents, and other chemicals.
The following observations can be made:
• Chemical manufactures in the South produce mainly
bulk chemicals: organic, inorganic, and petrochemi-
cals, plastics, and fertilizers;
• Chemical manufactures in the North, Northeast, and
the West produce mainly consumer and high value-added
7-3
-------
TABLE 7-1:
SHIPMENTS AND CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN THE MANUFACTURING
SECTOR AND IN CHEMICALS BY STATE
(in millions of dollars)
Va 1 ue of Sh 1 pments
Total
Manufacturing
North Carol ina
South Carol Ina
Tennessee
Kentucky
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Texas
Arkansas
Oklahoma
New Mexicob
Louisiana
Cal i forn la
Missouri
Ohio
Indiana
Pannsy 1 van! a
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Michigan
Virginia
West Virginia
40,912 (10)
18,882
28,752
22,874
32,856
20,980
21,010
12,765
92,535 (5)
12,276
12,563
29,500
120,896 (1)
33,162
95,234 (2)
52,172 (8)
79,845 (7)
51,280 (9)
86,216 (6)
93,081 (4)
93,757 (3)
23,988
8,705
Chemicals
SIC 28
3,523
2,908
4,655 (9)
2,480
2,387
2,646
2,050
871
16,440 (1)
730
383
8,109 (3)
6,183 (6)
2,523
6,758 (5)
3,150
5,300 (8)
11,298 (2)
5,357 (7)
7,042 (4)
3,761 (10)
2,766
2,775
Capital Investment
Total
Percent9 Manufacturing
9
15 (6)
16 (5)
11 (9)
7
13 (7)
10 (10)
7
18 (4)
6
3
28 (2)
5
8
7
6
7
22 (3)
6
8
4
12 (8)
32 (1)
1,345
788
961
716
1,143
737
1,320
471
5,553 (1)
470
497
2,167 (8)
3,385 (3)
781
2,790 (4)
2,078 (9)
2,297 (7)
1,376 (10)
2,530 (6)
2,661 (5)
3,740 (2)
953
402
Chemicals
SIC 28
110
152
191
122
223 (9)
142
270 (6)
138
2,361 (1)
54
76
1,613 (2)
237 (7)
130
232 (8)
160
162
438 (3)
300 (5)
338 (4)
145
219 (10)
Percent9
8
19
20
17
20
19
20
29
43
12
15
74
7
17
8
8
7
32
12
13
—
15
55
(9)
(7)
(8)
(10)
(6)
(5)
(3)
(1)
(4)
(2)
( ) = rating of states
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980-81.
aChemicals as percent of total manufacturing.
New Mexico chemical industry is very small and the available figures are limited.
7-4
-------
TABLE 7-2:
VALUE OF SHIPMENTS BY STATE AND BY SECTOR OF THE
CHEMICAL INDUSTRY
(in millions of dollars)
North Carol ina
South Carol Ina
Tennessee
Kentucky
Georg 1 a
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Texas
Arkansas
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Louisiana
Cal I torn la
Missouri
Ohio
Indiana
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Michigan
Virginia
West Virginia
Organ ics
SIC 286
298
300
751
666
320
221
597
46
10,167 (1)
193
3
-
4,433 (2)
600
317
991 (4)
154
850 (5)
2,727 (3)
693
728
795 (6)
-
1,788
Plastics
SIC 282
1,609 (3)
1,755 (2)
1,496 (4)
858
-
488
-
207
2,707 (1)
-
-
-
1,004 (6)
586
-
905
323
589
950
246
749
380
1,476 (5)
705
Inorganics
SIC 281
130
-
1,600 (1)
497
265
117
342
-
1,124 (2)
-
-
-
882 (4)
596
-
951 (3)
213
812 (5)
637 (6)
512
438
407
214
172
Detergents
and Soaps
SIC 284
211
-
153
-
470
140
106
-
362
-
-
-
203
1,431 (4)
621 (5)
181
478 (6)
344
2,465 (1)
1,436 (3)
1,922 (2)
414
-
-
Drugs
SIC 283
607
-
216
-
-
81
-
-
153
-
-
-
-
864 (5)
455
172
1,373 (3)
1,880 (1)
-
1,608 (2)
984 (4)
804 (6)
348
-
Other
SIC 289
146
-
197
-
215
82
-
-
661 (3)
23
-
-
298
596 (5)
288
740 (2)
119
330
641 (4)
378
995 (1)
390 (6)
144
78
Agricultural
SIC 287
-
-
197
74
430 (6)
1,430 (1)
321
307
810 (3)
156
201
-
1,254 (2)
578 (4)
406
517 (5)
383
154
163
179
310
60
106
-
SIC = Standard Industrial ClassifIcatIion
( ) = rating of states
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980-81.
7-5
-------
TABLE 7-3: LEADING SECTORS OF THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY BY STATE
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Kentucky
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Texas
Arkansas
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Louisiana
California
Missouri
Ohio
Indiana
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Michigan
Virginia
West Virginia
PLAST = plastics
INORG = inorganic chemicals
ORGAN = organic chemicals
AGRIC = agricultural chemicals
DRUGS = drugs
DETER = soap and detergents
OTHER = other chemicals
First
PLAST
PLAST
INORG
PLAST
DETER
AGRIC
ORGAN
AGRIC
ORGAN
ORGAN
AGRIC
—
ORGAN
DETER
DETER
DETER
DRUGS
DRUGS
ORGAN
DRUGS
DETER
DRUGS
PLAST
ORGAN
Second
DRUGS
ORGAN
PLAST
ORGAN
AGRIC
PLAST
INORG
PLAST
PLAST
AGRIC
—
—
AGRIC
DRUGS
AGRIC
ORGAN
DETER
ORGAN
DETER
DETER
OTHER
ORGAN
DRUGS
PLAST
Third
ORGAN
AGRIC
ORGAN
INORG
ORGAN
ORGAN
AGRIC
ORGAN
INORG
—
—
—
PLAST
ORGAN
ORGAN
INORG
AGRIC
INORG
PLAST
ORGAN
DRUGS
INORG
INORG
INORG
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980-81
7-6
-------
products: drugs, soap and detergents, perfumes,
specialty chemicals, and plastics;
• Apart from Texas, Louisiana, and Tennessee the chem-
ical industry of the other Sunbelt states consists
of isolated manufactures: Florida produces phos-
phates and other fertilizers; Georgia, Mississippi,
Alabama, Arkansas, and Oklahoma have rather small
manufactures of agricultural chemicals and plastics;
and
• Northern and northeastern states and California have
more integrated chemical industries. Apart from
their specialization in consumer and high value-
added products, they also produce bulk chemicals but
in smaller quantities.
The strength of the southern chemical industry derives from
the existence of raw materials (oil, natural gas, coal, phos-
phates) and from the geographic advantages of the region (port
facilities, navigable rivers, road and railway networks), rather
than from the existence of local or regional markets, hence its
specialization in bulk products. The relatively small manufac-
tures (mainly plastics and agricultural chemicals) spread over
most Sunbelt states cater to the local markets.
The opposite is true for most other states in our sample:
the proximity of large urban centers and the dense population of
these states is the reason for the strength of manufacturers of
consumer products. Plastics products, soaps, and detergents
have high transport costs and need to be manufactured as close
to their market as possible. High value-added products such as
drugs, perfumes, dyestuffs, and other specialty chemicals are
products of intensive and highly specialized research and devel-
opment (RSeD). Their manufacturers tend to be near large univer-
sity and research centers of excellence, which participate di-
rictly in corporate R&D or provide industry the environment and
facilities conducive to innovation.
7.2.2 Employment and Income
Table 7-4 presents 1977 data on employment and income in
manufacturing and in the chemical industry for the 24 states of
our sample.
The following observations can be made:
• Despite the relatively small size of the manufactur-
ing sector in the Sunbelt, four states are among the
7-7
-------
TABLE 7-4: EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME BY STATE IN MANUFACTURING AND IN THE CHEMICAL
INDUSTRY, 1977
Employment Employment
Manufacturing Chemical
North Caro 1 1 na
South Carol ina
Tennessee
Kentucky
~j Georg I a
00 Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Texas
Arkansas
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Lou 1 s 1 ana
(in thousands
765 (9)
374
490
277
484
358
341
219
890 (7)
197
168
29
194
of employees)
33 (9)
33 (10)
53 (4)
16
15
21
13
6.6
70 (2)
6
2
0.8
31 (11)
Pay
Manufacturing
(In mi 1 1 Ions of
7,518 (10)
3,805
5,220
3,452
5,124
4,133
3,773
2,061
11,700 (7)
1,932
2,100
297
2,674
Pay
Chem I ca 1
dol lars)
432
483
804 (4)
245
200
303
202
83
1,228 (2)
95
27
12
593 (9)
Chemical
Employment
(percent)
4
9
11
6
3
6
4
3
8
3
1
2
16
(3)
(4)
(3)
(6)
(6)
(5)
(1)
Average Average Actua 1
Chemical Pay Pay Pay
Payroll Manufacturing Chemical Difference
(percent)
6
13
15
7
4
7
5
4
10
5
1
4
22
(7)
(4)
(2)
(6)
(6)
(5)
(1)
(in
9,820
10,170
10,650
12,460
10,580
11,540
11,060
9,410
13,140
9,800
12,500
10,240
13,780
dol lars per
13,090
14,630
15,170
15,600
13,260
14,420
15,530
12,570
17,540
15,830
13,500
15,000
19,130
year)
3,270
4,460
4,520
3,140
2,640
2,880
4,470
3,160
4,400
6,030
1,000
4,760
5,350
(continued)
-------
TABLE 7-4: (continued)
Emp 1 oyment
Manufacturing
Employment
Chem i ca 1
(in thousands of employees)
Cal ifornia
Missouri
Ohio
Indiana
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
1 New York
1 1 1 inois
Michigan
Virginia
West Virginia
1,751
433
1,331
706
1,329
778
1,510
1,286
1,116
395
117
(1)
(3)
(10)
(4)
(8)
(2)
(5)
(6)
53 (4)
24
45 (6)
25
44 (7)
96 (1)
52 (5)
55 (3)
34 (8)
33
19
Pay
Manufacturing
Average
Pay Chemical Chemical Pay
Chemical Employment Payroll Manufacturing
(in mi 1 1 ions of dot lars)
24,671
5,709
20,356
10,439
18,042
10,924
20,876
18,740
20,054
4,442
1,620
(1)
(3)
(9)
(6)
(8)
(2)
(5)
(4)
781 (5)
326
712 (7)
455
692 (8)
1,587 (1)
759 (6)
829 (3)
575 (10)
510
327
(percent) (percent)
3
6
3
4
3
12 (2)
3
4 (8)
3
8
16
3
6
4
4
4
15 (3)
4
4
3
11
20
Average
Pay
Chem i ca 1
Actua 1
Pay
Difference
(in dol lars per year)
14,090
13,200
15,290
14,780
13,570
14,040
13,820
14,570
17,960
11,240
13,840
14,730
13,600
15,820
18,200
15,720
16,530
14,590
15,070
16,910
15,400
17,200
640
400
530
3,420
2,150
2,490
770
500
-1,050
4,160
3,360
( ) = rating of states
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980-81.
-------
top ten in terms of employment in the chemical in-
dustry;
• When employment and total payroll in the chemical
industry are expressed as percentages of the total
in manufacturing, eight and seven Sunbelt states
respectively are among the top ten; and
• The average pay in manufacturing is considerably
lower in the South than in the North. But this dif-
ference is very much reduced when the comparison is
limited to employees in the chemical industry.
These observations underline the importance of the chemical
industry as a driving force, not only in manufacturing but also
in the economic development of the Sunbelt. The considerable
difference in pay between manufacturing as a whole and the chem-
ical industry puts pressure on local and state authorities to
provide incentives in terms of taxation and industrial zoning
for the chemical industry to invest within their borders.
The generally lower wages paid in the South have acted as a
further incentive for the industry to move there because of the
resulting lower cost in services, transport, and unskilled labor,
Thus, it appears that the chemical industry was and will be a
major driving force in the industrial and economic development
of the Sunbelt.
7.2.3 Recent Trends
Table 7-5 presents Census of Manufactures data on recent em-
ployment and value-added trends (1972-1977) in the manufacturing
sector and in the chemical industry for the states of the sample,
The following observations can be noted:
• Manufacturing employment increases in the South range
from 3 percent for North Carolina to 21 percent for
Texas, the average for Regions 4 and 6 being 9 per-
cent;
• Manufacturing employment increased in California by
13 percent, while in the North and Northeast it
ranged from a decline of 10 percent for New York to
a growth of 7 percent for New Jersey. The average
for the nine states of the North and Northeast showed
no change;
• Employment in the chemical industry over the five
year period increased in the Sunbelt states by an
7-10
-------
TABLE 7-5:
GROWTH OF MANUFACTURING AND THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY,
1972-1977
Percentage Increase
In Employment
Percentage Increase
In Value-Added
Manufacturing
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Kentucky
Georgia
Florida
Alabama
Mississippi
Texas
Arkansas
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Louisiana
Study Area
Average
California
Missouri
Ohio
Indiana
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Michigan
Virginia
West Virginia
North and North-
east Average
Employment
3
8
5
7
4
4
6
9
21
9
18
NA
9
9
13
0
-1
0
-6
7
-10
-2
4
5
3
0
Chemical
Industry
2
20
5
21
10
13
26
24
24
40
105
NA
27
26
17
3
-5
2
-8
-2
•"• J
5
0
0
-10
-3
Total
Manufacturing
66
65
65
68
70
60
66
99
116
74
NA
NA
122
80
76
61
58
61
53
39
46
56
61
76
47
56
Chemical
Industry
86
78
63
107
121
71
103
89
122
159
NA
NA
158
105
62
74
62
49
55
54
56
67
55
74
39
57
NA = Not Available
Source: U.S., Dept,
of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980-81.
7-11
-------
average of 26 percent and in California by 17 per-
cent. In the North and Northeast there was an over-
all decline in employment; West Virginia experienced
the largest decline (10 percent) and Michigan exper-
ienced no change. Exceptions were Illinois (+5 per-
cent) and Indiana (+2 percent);
• Value-added for manufacturing showed an average in-
crease of 80 percent for the Sunbelt states, 76 per-
cent for California, and 56 percent for the North
and Northeastern states of the sample; and
• Value-added for the chemical industry increased by
105 percent in the South, 62 percent in California,
and 57 percent in the North and Northeast.
The above observations show further evidence of the expansion
of the manufacturing sector in the South. The chemical industry
underwent even greater expansion both in terms of employment and
value-added. Figures on employment and on valued-added should be
interpreted as mutually dependent because of the relationships
among types of products, manufacturing processes, and market out-
lets. For example, in Georgia, a small increase in employment
raised the value-added by 121 percent. This is because of the
establishment of soap and detergent manufactures whose products
have a high value-added.
The average values of growth experienced in the period 1972
to 1977 produce an indication of the trends that may be expected
for the early part, at least, of the time horizon of this study.
7.2.4 Oil Refining Industry
The oil refining and chemical industries have close institu-
tional and geographic relationships. Most major oil refining
firms became important chemical manufacturers (e.g., Exxon and
Standard Oil of Ohio [Sohio]) or have merged with chemical firms
(DuPont-Tenneco). On the other hand--and of more importance to
this study—chemical manufacturing plants are built near oil re-
fineries which provide the feedstocks and their by-products as
well as the cost advantages of transporting intermediate and end
products rather than raw materials.
Table 7-6 shows this relationship in a clearer way. The data
are again from the 1977 Census of Manufactures. States with
large oil and gas production and refining industries are those
with large chemical industries as well (Table 7-1). Texas, Loui-
siana, California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Indiana
have, or have had, important oil and gas resources. Exceptions
are New Jersey, which has a large oil refining and chemical in-
dustry based on imported oil, and Oklahoma, which is a major oil
7-12
-------
TABLE 7-6: OIL AND GAS AND OIL REFINING INDUSTRIES (SIC 29 AND SIC 2911)
(in millions of dollars)a
Oil and
1977 1977
Mater I a I s Sh 1 pments
North Carol ina
Tennessee
Georg i a
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Lou i s i ana
Cal ifornia
Missouri
Ohio
Indiana
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
New York
Illinois
Michigan
West Virginia
70
270
178
77
473
23,958 (1)
370
7,940 (4)
9,345 (3)
9,981 (2)
524
3,333 (8)
2,450 (9)
4,546 (6)
3,930 (7)
630
6,008 (5)
894
219
85
371
228
105
556
29,702
436
3,350
11,134
12,460
684
3,953
2,727
5,553
4,126
756
7,463
1,080
251
Gas Industry
1977
Va 1 ue-
Added
15
104
52
29
89
4,277
77
438
1,844
2,540
161
645
324
1,064
210
178
1,466
185
35
1972
Va 1 ue-
Added
13
18
43
26
-
1,338
35
104
442
725
—
311
219
350
410
168
26
1977
Capital
Investment
1
3
3
-
1,171
8
90
136
153
13
48
97
87
63
18
71
14
Oil Refining Industry
1977 1977
Mater 1 a 1 s Shi pments
395
23,712 (1)
2,840 (7)
9,140 (3)
9,610 (2)
—
221
2,361 (8)
4,279 (5)
3,693 (6)
5,596 (4)
781
—
436
27,734
3,218
10,813
11,871
—
427
2,595
5,161
3,782
6,834
903
—
1977 1972
Va 1 ue- Va 1 ue-
Added Added
46 13
4,155 1,274
406
1,718 408
2,315 615
—
206 113
279 184
939 263
101
1,248 27
131
__
1977
Capital
Investment
1,155
88
131
131
—
18
94
77
52
62
—
—
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980-81.
aNo figures for South Carolina, Kentucky, Mississippi, Virginia, and New Mexico.
-------
and gas producing state but exports most of its product via pipe-
lines to major population centers. The discrepancies between
these two states underline the importance of having a coastline
or navigable rivers for transport, process water, and effluent
disposal.
The data on investment in the period 1972 to 1977 are consis-
tent with large expansions of refining capacity in Texas, Louisi-
ana, and California, controlled growth in Pennsylvania and Indi-
ana, and modest growth for the other states of the sample, includ-
ing New Jersey. These trends will affect, in a parallel way,
future developments of the chemical, and particularly the petro-
chemical, industry.
7.2.5 Federal Environmental Protection Legislation Affecting the
Chemical Industry
Federal environmental legislation dealing with toxic sub-
stances which affect the chemical industry can be divided into
two groups (Table 7-7): the first six statutes which were passed
prior to or during 1974 and to which the industry has adapted to
a considerable extent; and two more recent acts passed in 1976—
the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the Toxic
Substances Control Act (TOSCA)--which have only been partially im-
plemented to this date.
Although the legislation in the first group was not directed
specifically at the chemical industry, industry activities were
greatly affected. For example, in 1975, 11 percent of total cap-
ital investment in the chemical industry (684 million dollars)
was spent for pollution control. The peak was reached in 1976
with 13 percent (765 million dollars) ("Facts and Figures," 1980).
From then on capital investment for pollution control remained at
a moderate level, about 5 percent of total capital investment.
Table 7-8 shows the relative decline of pollution control in-
vestment by the chemical industry in the years 1978 to 1980, a
decline which some other industries, notably iron and steel, pet-
roleum, nonferrous metals, paper, etc., did not experience
("Facts and Figures," 1980). It is also interesting to note in
Table 7-8 that the major thrust of pollution control investment
was in air and water, the most stringently regulated areas, with
much less in solid waste management. Furthermore, R&D effort de-
voted entirely to coping with environmental legislation does not
exceed 13.5 percent of total R&D effort according to a number of
R&D managers who were interviewed by a University of New Orleans
team (Iverstine, Kinard, and Slaughter, 1978).
Serious human health effects due to benzene were noted be-
fore 1959 when 140 fatal cases of poisoning were studied (Elkins,
1959, p. 103). Vigliani and Saita (1964) listed 26 deaths from
7-14
-------
TABLE 7-7: FEDERAL LAWS DEALING WITH TOXIC SUBSTANCES
Statute
Sources Covered
Clean Air Act (1970)a
Federal Water Pollution
Control Act (1972)a
Safe Drinking Water Act (1974)
Federal Insecticide, Fungicide,
and Rodenticide Act (1972, 1975)
Act of July 22, 1954 (§346(a)
of the Federal Food, Drug, and
Cosmetic Act)
Marine Protection, Research
and Sanctuaries Act (1972)
Resource Conservation and
Recovery Act (1976)
Toxic Substances Control
Act (1976)
Hazardous air pollutants
Toxic water pollutants
Drinking water contaminants
Control of pesticides
Tolerances for pesticides
in human and animal feeds
Ocean dumping of chemicals
Hazardous waste management
Premanufacture evaluation
of all new chemicals (oth-
er than food, food addi-
tives, drugs, pesticides,
alcohol, tobacco); allows
EPA to regulate existing
chemical hazards not suf-
ficiently controlled under
other laws
Source: Temple, 1979, p.15.
Substantial amendments were passed in 1977.
7-15
-------
TABLE 7-8: INDUSTRY CAPITAL SPENDING FOR POLLUTION CONTROL PROJECTS
(million of dollars)
1978
1979
1980
Total Pollu-
Capltal tlon
Invest- Con-
Industry merit trol
Total Pollu-
Capftal tlon
Sol Id Invest- Con-
Air Water Waste ment trol %
Total Pollu-
Capltal tlon
Solid Invest- Con-
Air Water Waste ment trol
Solid
Air Water Waste
Chem I ca 1 s
Food and
Beverage
Iron and
Steel
Nonferrous
Metals
Paper
Petro 1 euro
Al 1 Manu-
facturing
7,100
4,870
2,460
2,450
3,460
15,500
67,620
565
172
441
247
239
1,294
3,951
8
4
18
10
7
8
6
236
175
290
189
105
611
1,992
286
175
140
53
103
586
1,652
42
22
10
5
31
98
306
8,560
5,060
2,970
2,610
4,880
6,620
8,920
440
148
510
213
297
1,386
3,976
5
3
17
8
6
8
5
203
61
351
142
133
708
2,103
184
84
154
58
124
530
1,493
53
13
5
13
40
147
381
9,280
5,280
3,530
3,120
6,010
19,340
90,200
476
150
638
286
300
1,536
4,540
5
3
18
9
5
8
5
218
51
435
187
135
844
2,515
205
83
97
76
125
565
1,642
53
16
6
23
40
127
383
Source: Data compiled from U.S. Department of Commerce, as cited in "Facts and Figures" 1980.
-------
chronic benzene poisoning in two provinces in Italy between 1960
and 1963. Eleven of these were diagnosed as leukemia. Despite
the early reports ascribing low toxicity to vinyl chloride, in-
jury during production of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resins was
reported as early as 1949. A report by Viola et al. (1971), is
the earliest publication in which carcinogenic activity has been
ascribed to vinyl chloride in man or animals. Evidence has also
shown that very little is known about how and to what extent
chemical substances may affect human health (U.S., CEQ, 1977 and
1980). Increasing concern about the potential health hazards of
chemical substances led Congress in 1976 to pass the second group
of statutes, namely the RCRA and the TOSCA, which are directed
mainly towards the chemical industry.
The U.S. chemical industry is conscious of the image it pro-
jects to the public and its effect on public opinion in its ef-
fort to reduce air and water pollution and to protect worker
safety and health (Holmer, 1980). Table 7-9 presents the results
of a public opinion survey carried out by a consulting firm for
industries perceived as having done a poor job of complying with
environmental protection laws and guidelines. The Chemical Manu-
facturers' Association has recently increased its cooperation
with EPA in dealing with risks from the transport of chemicals
and for managing specific hazardous waste disposal sites. The
Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology, formed in 1974, is
funded by 34 firms and carries out research to determine the pos-
sible health effects of major commodity chemicals and to develop
improved test methods to evaluate health hazards. The American
Industrial Health Council—a non-profit organization financed by
the chemical industry—is working with government agencies to
develop new standards for employee health in the industry.
7.3 FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES
7.3.1 Expansion of the Chemical Industry in the South
The information in the previous section suggests that the
chemical industry will continue to expand in the South during the
coming 20 to 30 years. This expansion will be an important driv-
ing force for the economic development of the southern states,
particularly those along the Gulf and South Atlantic coasts. The
following factors are among those which will combine to bring
about this development:
1. The chemical industry will grow worldwide. Forecasts
are that its output will double by the end of this
century—on the basis of the versatility of its pro-
ducts and their use in both consumer and capital
goods. The U.S. chemical industry, the largest in
7-17
-------
TABLE 7-9: INDUSTRIES SEEN AS HAVING DONE A "POOR JOB"
OF COMPLYING WITH [ENVIRONMENTAL] LAWS AND
GUIDELINES
Poor Job Poor Job Poor Job
on Air on Water on Health
Industry Pollution Pollution and Safety
Chemicals 56% 51% 36%
Oil 34% 39% 20%
Steel 30% 27% 22%
Electricity
Utilities 15% 15% 10%
Mining — — 37%
Forest Products 17% 18% 5%
Source: Holmer, 1980 (Survey carried out by Yankelovich,
Skelly, and White, Inc.).
the world, will share in that growth (see Figure
7-1);
The South offers important geographical advantages
in terms of proximity to foreign markets (South
America, Africa, and Western Europe); proximity to
feedstocks (gas and oil in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana,
Mexico, and Venezuela; and coal in Texas, Kentucky,
and Tennessee); and good transport networks (ports
in the Gulf and the Atlantic Coast and navigable
rivers to the interior);
Large investments in chemical plants have been made
in the last 40 years. The Gulf Coast of Eastern
Texas and Louisiana has the largest concentration of
chemical plants in the U.S.1 Some decrease in acti-
vities will occur in Kentucky and Tennessee but this
will be more than balanced by investments in the
Carolinas;
^Nearly all expansion in ethylene, propylene, butadiene, and
aromatics capacity in the last 10 years was in Texas and
Louisiana (Wett, 1981).
7-18
-------
1990
300H
*•«»
(0
o>
o 200-
o oo
24%
8$;M$&
22%
27%
11%
17%
Western USA - USSR - Japan Other
Europe Canada Eastern
Europe
1978
300H
£ 200-
Q.
29%
lllliiill
:xv1gx'^:^S
24%
24%
fyfK
:$:£•¥•:•
11%
ffffffff
K$xS:
13%
Western USA - USSR - Japan Other
Europe Canada Eastern
Europe
Figure 7-1: World Chemical Productiona
Source: Telfer, 1980, p. 29.
aActual figures for 1978, estimated figure for 1990. Average
growth rates (percent per year) are: World 5.7, Western Europe
4.0, North American 5.0, Eastern Europe and USSR 7.0, Japan 5.5,
Others 8.0.
7-19
-------
4. The trend of internal migration of population to the
South and the growth of its urban centers will call
for the establishment there of manufactures of chem-
ical consumer products such as detergents, soaps,
paints, varnishes, and solvents; and
5. State and local authorities will provide incentives
for the chemical industry to expand in their areas
because of the employment opportunities it creates,
the relatively higher wages it pays, the establish-
ment of secondary industries, the growth of the local
service sector, and the expansion of the tax base.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the Department of
Commerce forecasts considerable growth in the chemical industry
for most southern states. Their projections are presented in
Table 7-10 and cover the period 1978 to 2010. Given the very
long time horizon, the details of the figures presented in the
table, which were calculated by the extrapolation and moderation
of current trends, may be challenged, but the general trend of
growth seems to be plausible (see chapters 3 and 4) for reasons
given above.
7.3.2 Concentrated Urban and Industrial Development
Recent investments in the chemical and refining industries in
the West, North, and Northeast indicate that there will not be a
rush of chemical manufacturers to the South, but an accelerating
trend of building new capacity there. The BEA forecasts more
than 200 percent growth of chemicals in most southern states.
Given the current concentrations in Texas and Louisiana, a fur-
ther doubling of plant capacity there will have different con-
sequences than the doubling of capacity in Oklahoma or Missis-
sippi. All indications so far point to the Gulf and South Atlan-
tic coasts for accommodating most of the expected growth. Doub-
ling employment in the chemical industry means an extra 70,000
employees in Texas, 50,000 in Tennessee, and 30,000 each for
Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. These employees
and workers will be urban dwellers; most of them will probably
move from outside these areas, bringing their families, thereby
raising the local population by about three times their numbers.
Local authorities will have the responsibility for providing the
necessary infrastructure in terms of housing, schools, roads,
social services, etc. Unless this is done in time, increasing
chemical manufacturing capacity may lead to increased environ-
mental concerns resulting from both industrial and urban devel-
opment .
7-20
-------
TABLE 7-10: REPORTED AND PROJECTED INDUSTRY EARNINGS3
FOR CHEMICALS AND ALLIED PRODUCTS (SIC 28)
(in millions of 1972 dollars)b
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Region 4
Region 6
Region 5C
Region 2C
Region 3°
1978
192.4
91.5
300.8
181.2
215.7
510.8
74.6
6.0
410.8
39.4
386.6
747.1
1,210.9
2,509.2
1,858.6
3,097.9
2,863.9
2,302.8
1985
266.0
137.6
395.9
258.4
280.0
846.1
115.8
7.6
623.5
60.8
532.2
981.1
1,809.7
3,452.9
2,861.8
4,064.4
3,650.0
2,894.7
1990
329.0
176.2
473.8
325.7
328.2
1,167.3
153.1
9.0
799.5
81.6
656.2
1,164.2
2,357.5
4,229.7
3,791.6
4,848.9
4,284.5
3,339.2
2000
464.6
263.6
626.1
474.5
399.4
1,895.9
240.6
11.9
1,172.1
127.7
919.1
1,519.1
3,460.0
5,815.5
5,759.1
6,405.9
5,513.9
4,157.8
% Change
2010 1978-2010
629.7
370.2
812.0
655.8
486.9
2,790.7
347.6
15.5
1,614.4
184.1
1,239.0
1,953.0
4,803.3
7,738.4
8,163.8
8,307.3
7,033.8
5,175.9
227.3
304.6
169.9
261.9
125.7
446.3
366.0
158.3
293.0
367.3
220.5
161.4
296.7
208.4
339.2
168.2
145.6
124.8
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
aLabor and proprietor's income (see Chapter 4 for further explanation).
"Regions 2, 3, and 5 were selected for comparison because their projected in-
come from SIC 28 was higher than that of any of the other regions.
GRegion 5 includes the states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota,
Ohio, and Wisconsin; Region 2 New York and New Jersey; and Region 3 Delaware,
District of Columbia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia.
7-21
-------
7.3.3 Water Use
Figure 7-2 presents projections from the Second National
Water Assessment (U.S., Water Resources Council, 1978, pt. 3,
p. 45) for fresh water withdrawal and consumption by the chemical
industry to the year 2000. The four areas 4-n Figure 7-2 include
the major riverine chemical manufacturing regions. Except for
the Texas Gulf region, fresh water withdrawals are expected to
drop considerably. These reductions will result from recycling
process water in manufacturing plants—a trend accelerated by
the enforcement of the Clean Water Act (CWA) and, in the Texas
Gulf and Lower Mississippi region, by the large scale use of
saline and brackish water. In spite of the projected reduction
in withdrawals, consumption of fresh water is projected to in-
crease, not only because of the expected growth of the chemical
industry, but also because complying with the CWA encourages in-
creased consumption through the use of evaporative holding ponds.
For example, fresh water consumption by the chemical industry in
the Texas region is projected to increase by about 400 percent
(see Chapter 13). A basic assumption for these projections is
that the major goals of the CWA will continue to be enforced (see
Chapter 14). The increased pressures on limited water resources
may be one of the reasons for consideration of creating new manu-
facturing sites for the chemical industry.
7.3.4 Siting of Chemical Plants
The southern coastal manufacturing sites will maintain their
attractiveness for the industry in the foreseeable future. This
will be particularly true for the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast
sites which—apart from the benefits of large ports, navigable
rivers and refineries—will have feedstocks available from nearby
oil and natural gas wells. The projections for oil and gas
prices and their decontrol will encourage increased exploration
and production from new and existing wells, and from increased
secondary and tertiary recovery. Imports of gas and oil from
Mexico will also become an important source for feedstocks.
Siting of chemical plants in new coal mining areas (e.g.,
Wyoming and Montana in the U.S. and Alberta in Canada) if and
when the production of synfuel acquires momentum, will probably
not occur before the year 2000 because (a) there are consider-
able opportunities for energy conservation, as shown by the chem-
ical industry's record so far in reducing energy use per pound of
product by 18 percent between 1972 and 1978, and its target
towards an overall 30 percent improvement by 1985; and (b) most
petrochemical processes were developed in a period of declining
oil prices so that energy conservation was not a prime develop-
mental concern, thus allowing for improvement in fuel and feed-
stock efficiency and for the design of new technologies which
require less energy (U.K., Dept. of Energy, 1975). If
7-22
-------
OHIO REGION
>-
Q
CC
UJ
Q.
CO
O
-J
<
O
LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION
TENNESSEE REGION
CO
3 -
2 -
1 -
i
n J
1 CAMO-vawi-r new
IWI1
1975
1985
2000
FRESH-WATER WITHDRAWALS
FRESH-WATER CONSUMPTION
Figure 7-2: Water Use by the Chemical Industry
Source: U.S., Water Resources Council, 1978,
Pt. Ill, p. 47.
7-23
-------
commercially competitive feedstocks are produced elsewhere, it
may prove less costly for the industry—given its heavy capital
investment in existing sites and their advantage with respect to
established product transport—to channel those feedstocks by
pipeline to existing sites rather than relocate. The real prob-
lem with chemicals from coal in this century—aside from econom-
ics—is the lead time for installation of large scale commercial
coal conversion processes. No commercial size reactors have
operated in the U.S., no firm environmental impact information is
available to pin down pollution problems.
The expansion of petrochemical manufacturing in Mexico en-
hances the importance of the U.S. Gulf Coast chemical manufac-
tures because they have competitive transport costs to Latin
America.
Apart from the above technical/commercial advantages, an im-
portant factor for the expansion of existing sites rather than
the establishment of new ones is the encouragement of developers
by local and state authorities in terms of financial and tax in-
centives and zoning regulations. Local and state authorities
enjoy the considerable economic benefits in terms of jobs, higher
than average paychecks, secondary industry, expansion of ser-
vices, housing, and growth of the tax base. Lastly, expansion
will face less local resistance than siting in new areas since
people living in unindustrialized areas object much more strongly
to incoming industry than do people living in the; vicinity of
already industrialized zones.
Given the size of the projected growth of the chemical indus-
try and its inelasticity in siting, a major environmental concern
for Regions 4 and 6 will be the cumulative effects of gaseous,
liquid, and solid effluents on air and fresh water quality in and
around dense concentrations of chemical plants, on neighboring
estuaries and coastlines, and on the health of people living in
adjacent areas. Evidence of such environmental degradation can
be found in Baton Rouge and Lake Charles, Louisiana; Beaumont,
Port Arthur, and Galveston, Texas; and Memphis, Tennessee. For
example, the manufacture of the whole range of petrochemicals in
Baton Rouge, Louisiana, which include proven or suspected carcin-
ogens like benzene, acrylonitrile, ethylene oxide, vinyl chloride,
and carbon black, is suspected of being associated with the in-
creased incidence of some types of cancer in the area, although
it is difficult to prove direct cause and effect linkages (Levin
et al, 1974; Jellinek, 1978; U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980). Given the
projected concentrated growth of the industry, stricter regula-
tions for the discharge of pollutants in gaseous, liquid, and
solid effluents, increased monitoring, and systematic evaluation
of the carrying capacities of air and river and coastal waters
may be required.
7-24
-------
While economic factors may favor expanding existing sites, it
may, however, prove impossible to accommodate the expected growth
of the industry by expansion because of physical, technical, so-
cial, and environmental constraints. Tn this case it is possible
that the geographic advantages of regions 4 and 6 and the poli-
cies of state authorities to create employment opportunities will
lead to the establishment of new chemical (and petrochemical)
manufacturing centers. The coast of North Carolina, South Caro-
lina, and Georgia, if provided with deepwater port facilities,
may offer some attractive locations, particularly should exten-
sive L.NG (liquefied natural gas) imports from Algeria and Middle
Eastern countries develop. The Gulf Coast of Alabama, Mississip-
pi, and Florida may also provide similar sites.
These possible developments suggest that EPA, state and local
authorities, coastal zone management commissions, and industry
should cooperate to identify new sites along the coasts, and to
evaluate the industrial capacity that can be accommodated. It is
known from the experience in siting major energy facilities in
the U.S. and western Europe that long term planning and selection
of sites helps to reduce public opposition, leads to the choice
of the most suitable sites, and reduces adverse impacts by iden-
tifying them in advance (OECD, Environment Directorate, 1979).
7.3.5 Management of Hazardous Chemical Waste (also see Chapter
15)
The chemical industry has been generating large volumes of
waste since the industrial revolution, the huge deposits of cal-
cium sulfide from alkali manufacture being one of the trademarks
of that period. More recently, the huge expansion and character
of the industry's output (e.g., pesticides) has led to the pro-
duction of waste materials which are highly toxic and which must
be safely disposed of to avoid health hazards. The physical
state, volume, nature, and toxicity of waste generated by the
chemical industry varies greatly and includes very large volumes
of solid inert materials like calcium phosphate or calcium car-
bonate, large volumes of liquid by-products of petrochemical man-
ufacture, small amounts of known carcinogens such as polychlori-
nated biphenyls, and small amounts of trace metals like mercury
and cadmium. The large size of the chemical industry in the Sun-
belt results in the production of most kinds of hazardous waste
and the projected growth of the industry in the time horizon of
this study indicates that the problems associated with the safe
disposal of that waste may become more complicated.
Data on hazardous waste generation by the chemical industry
are presented in Chapter 15 (tables 15-2 and 15-3). One estimate
is for 6 million metric tons per year in Region 4, and 3 million
metric tons for Region 6. The other estimate is for 15 million
7-25
-------
metric tons for Region 4, and 9 million metric tons for Region 6.
Despite the wide discrepancies between the two estimates, both
agree that the chemical industry is responsible for the bulk of
the hazardous waste in regions 4 and 6. The waste in Region 4
is mainly inorganic because of the predominance of inorganic
chemicals and fertilizer manufactures and is disposed of mostly
in landfills. The waste in Region 6 is mainly organic because
of the petrochemical industry and is disposed of in ponds, in-
jected into deep wells or incinerated. It is estimated that
regions 4 and 6 have, for the time being, excess waste disposal
capacity, but it is expected—particularly for Region 4—that
this will not be the case in the future because of the expansion
of the industry and the enforcement of the RCRA which will inevi-
tably preclude the use of some current sites.
The passage of RCRA and TOSCA has accelerated the establish-
ment and growth of the hazardous waste disposal industry. This
is a welcome development because:
° It will lead to safer methods for waste disposal;
° It will facilitate the task and decrease the number
of regulatory and enforcement authorities by better
identifying regulated agents; and
0 It will facilitate the safe disposal of waste gener-
ated by small producers.
Large companies, wherever the volume of waste generated allows
for the payback of investment in waste treatment plants, will go
ahead with on-site treatment. High temperature incineration on
the open seas on specially built ships will increase. Both the
cost of shipping waste and technological advances will help to
reduce the ratio of waste to product. And in the next 20 to 30
years the ratio of waste to product will decrease in the chemi-
cal industry due to new methods for treatment and to the legis-
lation in force. Our knowledge of relations between chemical
structure and the incidence of illness will increase so that
controls on the production, use, and disposal of chemicals will
be founded on a more solid basis and will become more selective
than is possible today. We may, therefore, expect that by the
end of the century fewer toxic waste disposal sites will be
needed and that they will belong mostly to a well defined waste
disposal industry which will be monitored by local, state, and
federal agencies. The latter may also own and manage such sites
in the same way they do today with water treatment and sewage
plants.
For these developments to occur, government and industry need
to address these questions without delay. Enforcement of RCRA
and TOSCA provides the opportunity for cooperation among EPA,
7-26
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state and local authorities, and industry to develop networks of
hazardous chemical waste facilities which will ensure the pro-
tection of the environment and the growth of the industry.
7.3.6 Transport of Hazardous Chemicals
Most chemicals, and in particular petrochemicals, are not
sold directly to consumers, but to other manufacturing industries
for further transformation (see Table 7-11). Transport of these
products is a major activity involving pipelines, barges, ships,
tankers, railways, and trucks. The extremely toxic character of
some high value-added, less bulky products (insecticides, pesti-
cides/fungicides) and the explosive character of some gases
(acetylene, hydrogen, oxygen, ethylene oxide) increase the haz-
ards involved. The probability for accidents is multiplied by
the density of chemical plants in a few geographical areas.
Sea and barge transport will become particularly important
in the next 20 to 30 years ("Storage," 1974). Both methods are
less expensive and less hazardous than road or rail transport,
and the geographical development of the chemical industry in the
South favors them. Congestion may be expected to occur in the
existing harbors and navigable rivers. Government agencies and
industry will have the task of ensuring that these routes have
the capacity to accommodate the growth expected while maintaining
safety precautions to prevent accidents and chemical spills.
7.3.7 Research and Innovation
There are some reports that R&D activities have been affected
in the past, and will be affected even more in the future, by the
implementation of environmental legislation. Some indications
were interpreted as evidence that industry was diverting R&D
funds away from the development of new products and processes to
the development of production processes to suit environmental
legislation (Iverstine, Kinard, and Slaughter, 1978; Chilton and
Hawley, 1980; U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980). However, the indications
of this trend are not convincing so far. The chemical industry
in all Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) countries has been reducing investment in R&D since the
oil price crisis in 1973. A trend towards incremental, and away
from radical, innovation was established since the late 1960"s.
The oil price crisis, by introducing more uncertainty for the
future, helped to enforce that trend. It was only a coincidence
that the Clean Air Act and the CWA were introduced in that period
of time and that some R&D funds were used to develop processes to
enable the industry to comply with the new legislation. The re-
cent increases in R&D budgets in OECD countries, which are to be
found in most sectors of industry and not only in chemicals,
7-27
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TABLE 7-11: FEEDSTOCK, PETROCHEMICALS, AND INDUSTRIES DEPENDENT ON PETROCHEMICALS
Petrochemical Materials3
Feedstocks3
(raw materials)
Natural Gas
Methane
Natural Gas Liquids
Ethane
Propane
Butane
LPG
Pentanes
Natural Gasol Ine
•-J Petroleum Liquids
to LPG
CD Naphtha
Reformats
Raf f Inate
Gas Oil
Carbon Black 01 1
Crude 01 1
"Primary" or "Basic" "Intermediate" Petrochemclal s
Petrochemicals Petrochemicals "Products"
Methanol
Unsaturates
Ethyl ene
Propy lene
Butyl ene
Acety 1 ene
Aromatics
Benzene
Toluene
P-Xy lene
Carbon Black
Ethyl ene Glycol Plastics
Ethyl ene Di chloride
Vinyl Acetate
Vinyl Chloride
Aery Ion Itrl |e
Synthetic fibers
So 1 vents
Ethyl benzene
Styrene Monomer
Phenol
Phthalic Anhydride
Terephthal Ic Acid
Surface active
agents
Additives
Synthetic rubber
1 ndustry
Users3
Coatings
Construction
Electrical
Housewares
Packaging
Transportation
Apparel
Text I les
Home furnishings
Tires
Dry cleaning
Cosmetics, drugs
Pr i nt i ng
Soaps and
detergents
Petroleum refining
Transportation
Tires
Fabricated rubber
Consumer
Demands3
Paints
P 1 ywood
Wire coating
Seat covers
Containers
Engineering
mater I a 1
Clothing
Rugs
Upholstery
fabric
Tire cord
Cleanl ng
fluids
Personal care
Items
Inks
Household
products
1 ndustr ial
cleaners
Gaso 1 1 ne
Lubricants
Tires
Belting, hose
Footwear
FertiIizers and
agricultural
chemicals
Agriculture
Source: Adapted from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Industry & Trade Admin., 1980.
aThese lists are Intended to be representative of types rather than Inclusive.
Foodstuffs
-------
reflect a change in policy, namely the recognition that new
radical technologies may help western economies out of stagna-
tion.
With respect to the chemical industry it is very probable
that the enforcement of the TOSCA will require more R&D invest-
ment for the introduction of new products and for the develop-
ment of processes which will be safer for its employees. This
does not mean, however, that there will be a reduction in the
inventive potential of the industry. New products and processes
with adverse health effects have not always been beneficial in
the long run to the firms that invented them. Thalidomide, for
example, led the Distillers Company in Britain to sell all its
chemical interests to the British Petroleum Company. According
to the TOSCA, control of new chemicals entering the market will
help to ensure that inventive activities are directed toward
safer products. The progress of industry in energy conservation,
pollution control, biodegradable detergents, nonpolluting insect-
icides, and the development of Pharmaceuticals with fewer side
effects are indications of the R&D and inventive potential of the
industry and that TOSCA goals are achievable. This potential may
be used to create less hazardous products and processes in the
future.
7.4 SUMMARY
The chemical industry is the largest manufacturing industry
in the Sunbelt. It is concentrated in Texas and Louisiana which
contain a very large proportion of the U.S. petrochemical indus-
try, in Tennessee and Kentucky which provide a wide variety of
chemicals, and in Florida which specializes in phosphates and
other fertilizers. Most other states also show important growth
in their shipments of chemicals. There is good evidence that the
growth will continue in the foreseeable future, and that the
chemical industry will become an important driving force for the
economic development of the South.
Increased environmental concerns that may be expected as a
result of the projected doubling of the capacity of the chemical
industry in the next 20 to 30 years are the following:
• Meeting social infrastructure requirements (housing,
schools, roads, etc.) in areas of rapid urban devel-
opment around the large concentrations of chemical
plants along the Gulf Coast;
• Cumulative effects of gaseous and liquid effluents
on air and fresh water quality in and around dense
concentrations of chemical plants;
7-29
-------
• Traffic congestion and hazards from toxic chemicals
on roads and navigable rivers due to the increasing
volume of chemical shipments; and
• Shortage in hazardous waste management facilities
and potential risks from substandard facilities.
Measures which will help to reduce the probability of the above
adverse impacts occurring are:
• Long term planning by government agencies and indus-
try for the growth of existing centers of chemical
manufacturing;
• Long term planning of federal, state, and local gov-
ernment agencies and industry for the identifica-
tion and development of new sites for chemical
industry growth along the Gulf and South Atlantic
coasts;
• Encouragment in terms of policies and incentives by
state and local governments for the development of
hazardous waste management industries and for the
regulation and monitoring of hazardous waste disposal
sites;
• Cooperation between government and the chemical in-
dustry in the implementation of the TOSCA and the
RCRA; and
• Federal policies to encourage the industry to main-
tain its efforts in research, development, and inno-
vation, especially those related to reducing environ-
mental risks.
7-30
-------
REFERENCES
Act of July 22, 1954 (codified as §346(a) of the Federal Food,
Drug and Cosmetic Act), Pub. L. 83-518, 68 Stat. 511.
Chilton, Kenneth W., and Matthew Hawley. 1980. "Federal Regula-
tion of Chemical Specialties Firms." Chemical Times and
Trends, June, pp. 29-32.
Clean Air Act of 1970, Pub. L. 91-316, 84 Stat. 416.
Clean Water Act of 1977, Pub. L. 95-217, 91 Stat. 1566.
Elkins, H. B. 1959. Chemistry of Industrial Toxicology. New
York: John Wiley & Sons.
"Facts and Figures for the Chemical Industry." 1980. Chemical
and Engineering News, June 9, pp. 33-71.
Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act, Pub. L.
92-516, 86 Stat. 973 (1972), amended by Pub. L. 94-51, 89
Stat. 257 (1975).
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L.
92-500, 86 Stat. 816.
Holmer, E. C. 1980. "The Challenges of the '80s from the Per-
spective of the U.S. Chemical Industry." Chemistry and In-
dustry, January 1, p. 18.
Iverstine, Joe C., Jerry L. Kinard, and William S. Slaughter.
1978. The Impact of Environmental Protection Regulation on
Research and Development in the Industrial Chemical Industry,
NSF Grant No. PRA 76-23121. Hammond: Southeast Louisiana
University, College of Business.
Jellinek, Steven. 1978. "Controlling Toxic Substances." EPA
Journal 4 (September):4-6, 23.
Levin, D. L., et al. 1974. Cancer Rates and Risks, Department
of Health, Education and Welfare, Publication No. 75-691.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act of 1972, Pub. L.
92-532, 86 Stat. 1052.
7-31
-------
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),
Environment Directorate. 1979. The Siting of Major Energy
Facilities. Paris: OECD. ~
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, Pub. L. 94-580,
90 Stat. 2795.
Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-523, 88 Stat. 1660.
"Storage and Distribution Survey." 1974. European Chemical
News, May 31.
Telfer, R. G. J. 1980. "Petrochemical Investment in the Devel-
oping World—Its Impact on Western Europe." Chemistry and
Industry, January 1, p. 29.
Temple, Truman. 1979. "Controlling Toxics." EPA Journal 5
(July/August):12-15.
Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976, Pub. L. 94-469, 90 Stat.
2003.
United Kingdom (U.K.), Department of Energy. 1975. Energy
Saving: The Fuel Industries and Some Large Firms. London:
Her Majesty's Stationery Office.
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1977. Environ-
mental Quality, Eighth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1980. Environ-
mental Quality, Eleventh Annual Report. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
1980. Regional Economic Projections. Washington, D.C.: BEA.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1980-81.
Census of Manufactures 1977. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Industry and Trade Administration.
1980. 1980 Industrial Outlook. Washington, D.C.: Govern-
ment Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research
and Development (ORD), Strategic Analysis Group. 1980.
Environmental Outlook 1980. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office.
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U.S., Water Resources Council (WRC). 1978. The Nation's Water
Resources 1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol.
2: Water Quantity, Quality, and Related Land Considera-
tions . Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Vigliani, E. C., and G. Saita. 1964. "Benzene and Leukemia."
New England Journal of Medicine 271 (October 22):872-76.
Viola, P. L., et al. 1971. "Oncogenic Response of Rat Skin,
Lungs and Bones to Vinyl Chloride." Cancer Research 31:
516-22.
Wett, Ted. 1981. "Growth in Ethylene Capacity Slows, But Plenty
of Potential Still Exists." Oil and Gas Journal 79 (Septem-
ber 7):85-90.
7-33
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CHAPTER 8
THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY
HIGHLIGHTS
Status and Trends
1. The textile industry is highly diversified, with over
7,000 plants in 48 states, employing approximately
900,000 people, and 1980 industry shipments valued at
51 billion dollars.
2. Although the textile industry is characterized by a low-
to-moderate growth rate, it plays an important role in
the giant fiber/textile/apparel industry complex which
is the nations largest industrial employer.
3. Although cotton historically has been the largest raw
material supplier, synthetic fibers, supplied primarily
from the petrochemical industry, now account for approxi-
mately 75 percent of total fiber consumption.
4. The textile industry utilizes many different fibers, pro-
cesses and chemicals which produce a highly variable
wasteload. This increases the difficulty of effectively
measuring and controlling any adverse environmental or
human health impacts.
Geographic Areas
5. The textile industry is highly concentrated in Region 4
which accounts for over 68 percent of total industry
employment and 66 percent of total industry earnings.
6. The industry is further concentrated within Region 4 in
North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. In each of
these states, textiles account for ar least 20 percent
of total manufacturing in both employment and earnings.
7. The vast majority of the 7,000 plus textile plants are
located in nonmetropolitan communities where they are
often the major local employer.
8-i
-------
• Key Problems and Issues
8. Water pollution is an important environmental problem
faced by the textile industry. Effluent discharges are
often visible, as dye concentrations in some states are
not regulated. One potential problem is the increasing
use of process chemicals exhibiting some biodegradation
resistance.
9. In some locations, textile facilities account for a large
proportion of station point source hydrocarbon emissions.
10. The geographic concentration of the industry magnifies
the significance of any adverse impact economically and
environmentally associated with textile operations.
8-ii
-------
CHAPTER 8
THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY
8.1 INTRODUCTION
The U.S. textile industry is highly diversified, with over
7,000 plants processing a variety of fibers and fabrics into a
multitude of end-products. Representing 69 percent of total in-
dustry employment, Region 4 is the textile manufacturing center
of the United States. The industry is further concentrated in
North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Because of its con-
centrated nature, the textile industry has significant potential
to affect the economic and environmental characteristics of the
areas in which it is located.
The industry is a large employer of semiskilled production
workers representing approximately 4 percent of the nation's
manufacturing labor force (American Textile Manufacturers Insti-
tute, 1982). Since the industry is divided into separate func-
tions and dispersed in rural communities, individual textile
mills are often the major employer in many small nonmetropolitan
communities. Employee earnings in textiles is also high as a
percentage of total manufacturing earnings in the key textile
states of the Carolinas and Georgia.
The industry continually experiences the introduction of new
fibers, finishes, and chemicals which combine to yield highly
variable waste characteristics. In addition, the industry in-
creasingly uses synthetic fibers, polymers, and finishes purpose-
ly designed to resist natural biodegradation processes and there-
fore, be more durable and longer-lasting. Most of these product
changes are associated with wastes that degrade in treatment sys-
tems, but there is uncertainty about human health risks associ-
ated with these chemicals and processses.
The industry consists of a few large integrated complexes and
numerous small specialized operations which perform one or more
steps of a particular manufacturing process before transferring
the product to another plant where further processing is con-
ducted. Thus, wasteload, both the type and concentration, can
differ greatly among plants and processes. This introduces un-
certainties and difficulties in analyzing potential environmental
impacts, integrating knowledge concerning common characteristics,
and utilizing uniform data collection practices. All of these
8-1
-------
contribute to the regulatory and legal problems associated with
proper definition and implementation of environmental controls
within the industry.
8.2 CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE TRENDS
8.2.1 Industry Overview
The U.S. textile industry is a component of the fiber/tex-
tile/apparel industry complex which is the nations's largest in-
dustrial employer (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Ind. & Trade Admin.,
1981). Together these industries employ one out of every eight
Americans with manufacturing jobs and are the largest employers
of women and minority workers in manufacturing. The textile
industry has grown to a point where there are over 7,000 plants
in 48 states, employing approximately 900,000 people, with 1980
industry shipments valued at 51 billion dollars (U.S., Dept. of
Commerce, Ind. & Trade Admin., 1981).
Tables 8-1 and 8-2 contain projections for industry employ-
ment and earnings through the year 2010 for regions 4 and 6.
These projections are based upon recent Bureau of Economic
Affairs (BEA) data. Region 4 accounts for over 68 percent of
total industry employment and 66 percent of total industry in-
come. Within Region 4, North Carolina represents by far the
largest concentration, with South Carolina close behind, followed
by Georgia and Florida which are projected to increase slightly.
On the other hand, Region 6 contains only a small portion of the
textile industry, but is projected to add more total employees
than Region 4 during the period.
Also illustrated in the tables is that total industry employ-
ment is projected to peak at 906,000 persons in 1985 while indus-
try earnings continue to climb through 2010. Although not clear
from the data, possible explanations for this variance could
include:
1. Increased productivity through modernization of
equipment and technology;
2. Capacity underutilization existing in the early
periods; and
3. Increased consolidation within the industry through
acquisition of small companies by larger firms.
The textile industry depends entirely on the cotton and wool
industries (natural fibers) and the petrochemical industry (syn-
thetic fibers) for their input of raw materials. Although cotton
has historically been the largest supplier, synthetic fibers have
8-2
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TABLE 8-1: TEXTILE INDUSTRY (SIC 22) EMPLOYMENT
Region/State
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Percent of U.S. Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Percent of U.S. Total
1978
45,714
4,191
25,984
7,250
6,492
53,561
43,825
28,892
15,909
69
4,229
2,974
1,640
6,590
15,433
2
1990
2000
44,181
6,303
133,653
8,121
7,219
251,589
143,703
26,765
621,534
69
43,588
7,629
134,690
8,907
7,875
249,180
145,642
25,299
622,810
70
2010
43,079
8,525
135,008
9,408
8,295
246,677
146,527
24,280
621,799
70
4,323
4,418
4,084
1,921
6,181
20,927
2
4,382
5,251
4,836
1,972
5,920
22,361
3
4,409
5,814
5,452
2,001
5,734
23,410
3
Source: Data calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
taken over the leadership during the past decade. For example,
the total fiber consumption breakdown for 1979 and 1980 was:
(1) synthetic fibers, 75 percent; (2) cotton, 24 percent; and
(3) wool, 1 percent.
Textile plants range from highly integrated manufacturing
complexes that perform many different types of fiber processing
to small contract plants that process goods owned by other pro-
ducers (Meyer, 1980). However, the majority of plants perform
only one or two types of processing operations and the ownership
is often confined to members of one family. This high degree of
fragmentation is illustrated by the largest 50 companies that
account for approximately 50 percent of total industry sales.
8-3
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TABLE 8-2:
TEXTILE INDUSTRY (SIC 22) EARNINGS
(millions of constant 1972 dollars)
Region/State
1978
1990
2000
2010
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Percent of
U.S. Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Percent of
U.S. Total
315.6
26.8
911.8
46.1
39.4
1,759.2
1,101.2
191.2
4,391.3
67
31.2
5.6
10.3
46.8
93.9
397.0
51.5
1,257.2
69.9
57.4
2,295.7
1,425.9
225.3
5,779.9
68
41.1
37.6
10,
16,
56,
161.8
488.3
76.9
1,579.1
100.3
79.0
2,843.5
1,792.1
262.8
7,222.0
69
51.9
59.8
13.3
21.8
68.6
215.4
599.8
106.0
1,966.9
135.2
104.1
3,506.0
2,233.0
311.4
8,962.4
70
65.0
85.4
17.
28,
1
,1
83.4
279.0
Source: Data calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA. 1980.
8.2.2 Key Economic Factors
Internationally, textile manufacturing has historically been
among the first industries to be established in developing coun-
tries. The industry's high requirement for semiskilled labor
usually matches well with the availability of labor in these
countries. However, as a nation prospers and labor costs in-
crease, its textile industry becomes vulnerable to imports from
less developed nations (Cooper, 1978). Due to the highly concen-
trated nature of the industry in the U.S., any economic decline
in this industry could severly affect the economy of several
8-4
-------
states, namely North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia.
Tables 8-3 and 8-4 are illustrative of the important role played
by the textile industry in these three states. Although the
trend is downward, the percentages projected for 2010 are still
significant.
TABLE 8-3: INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT—TEXTILES AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL
MANUFACTURING
State
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
1978
31
36
24
1990
26
30
22
2000
24
27
21
2010
23
25
20
Source: Data calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
TABLE 8-4: INDUSTRY EARNINGS—TEXTILES AS A PERCENT OF TOTAL
MANUFACTURING
State
North Carolina
South Carolina
Georgia
1978
28
34
21
1990
22
26
19
2000
20
24
18
2010
19
22
17
Source: Data calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980,
8-5
-------
In the U.S., the textile industry is characterized by a low-
to-raoderate growth rate and has been referred to as the "sunset
industry" due to the maturity of the industry. However, during
the past three to five years, the industry has benefitted from
strong demand in U.S. markets and an accelerating demand for ex-
ports. The primary reasons relate to the close association be-
tween the economic vitality of the nation and that of the indus-
try. For example, in 1979 the keys to the increasing export
demand were: (1) moderately rising U.S. textile prices compared
to more rapidly accelerating prices in other countries; (2) a de-
clining dollar in foreign exchange markets; (3) a recessionary
domestic market; and (4) the dampening effect of all of the above
on demand for imports (Meyer 1980). However, these types of
economic forces are dynamic and can change dramatically over
short periods of time. Thus, any short-term increase in the in-
dustry's growth rate deserves further analysis of some of its key
economic factors to determine the effect on long-term trends.
The primary cost elements associated with the textile indus-
try include fiber consumption, labor, equipment modernization,
energy, and process chemicals.
1. Fiber Consumption; Synthetic fibers are derived from pet-
roleum and are highly sensitive to increased prices in the
petroleum industry. A recent study by Arthur D. Little,
Inc. forecasts an increase in the price of petroleum-based
fibers by 55 to 110 percent by the mid!980's, based on the
increased cost of imported oil (Denham, 1980).
2. Labor; For years, textile industry workers have received
much lower wages than workers in other industries. This
could change drastically as union activity steps up as a
result of an agreement signed on October 19, 1980, by
officers of the J. P. Stevens Company and the Amalgamated
Clothing and Textile Workers Union ("Ripples Spreading,"
1980). This represents the first collective bargaining
agreement granted by a large textile manufacturer in the
industry's history.
3. Equipment Modernization: A number of technological ad-
vances in the textile industry over the past several years
have made it more capital intensive. For example, the
industry invested an estimated $1.16 billion during 1979
and $1.62 billion in 1980 for new plants and equipment.
These amounted to annual increases of 12 percent and 8
percent, respectively (Stodden, 1980 and Shockley, 1981).
Although capital expenditures are rising, the major por-
tion will go for modernization and operating improvements
rather than for expansion.
4. Energy; Energy requirements vary considerably among tex-
tile facilities based upon the type of fiber processed,
8-6
-------
type of operations, degree of mechanization in the mill,
and the climate of the mill location (U.S., EPA, 1974a).
For example, several polyester fabrics are high in energy
costs due to the mechanical processes required in the fin-
ishing of the product. Thus, pricing on these fabrics
will necessarily reflect any increase in energy costs.
Industry sources indicate that energy costs in general
have risen by some 250 percent over the past 8 years de-
spite active programs to reduce consumption. Breaking it
down by energy type, electricity costs rose by 200 per-
cent and costs of natural gas by almost 350 percent
("Soaring Energy Costs," 1981).
5. Process Chemicals; Many different chemicals are used
during the various types and stages of textile processing
to add some required or desirable quality to the raw fi-
ber and/or finished product. The economic impact of pro-
cess chemicals is twofold: first, the rising costs of the
chemicals themselves; more important, however, are the
wastewater management costs associated with these chemi-
cals. It has been estimated that over 90 percent of the
pollution load of textile wastes is contributed by the
process chemicals (Jones, 1973).
8.3 ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS
Few generalizations can really be made about textile plant
emissions, effluents, or solid wastes since they differ so much
from plant to plant (Bahorsky, 1974). This is due to the variety
of dyes, chemicals, lint, and other materials which are removed
from textile fibers resulting in complex waste products and mix-
tures that vary according to the process operation and equipment
used. Thus, consideration must be given to the chemicals used,
fibers processed, fabric weight, type of processing performed,
equipment used, and even the arrangement of the equipment
(Bahorsky 1974).
8.3.1 Water Related Concerns
Several mechanical operations are required to convert textile
fibers into fabrics. Typically, the fibers are combined into
yarns, and then are woven or knitted into fabrics which are then
treated with special finishes. In this transformation procedure,
two types of processes are used: wet and dry. The wastewater
effluent problems stem mostly from the wet processes which are
used to desize, wash, dye, and finish the textile fabric. Esti-
mates of water use by the textile industry are in the range of
100 to 125 billion gallons per year. About 2,000 mills have wet
operations of some kind, and 75 to 85 percent of the water use is
8-7
-------
concentrated in 300 to 350 relatively large plants (Lockwood
Greene, 1975).
The major pollution sources in textile wastewaters are (1)
naturally occurring dirts, salts, oils and greases on cotton and
wool; (2) fibers removed by chemicals and mechanical action dur-
ing processing; and (3) chemicals added and/or removed during the
many different process operations (Jones, 1973). Current treat-
ment requirements of "Best Practicable Control Technology" (see
Chapter 14) have been established for textile mills (which vary
according to the many mill types). However, discharge permits
are established by states and can exceed the standards in some
instances. Although most mills are in compliance, some mills
vary in their ability to comply with permit standards (North
Carolina Water Resource Research Institute, 1982). Some states,
such as North Carolina, have not established standards for dye
discharges so that effluents from textile mills are frequently
colored (North Carolina, Department of Natural Resources and
Community Development, 1982). Specific examples of the charac-
teristics of in-plant process water include (Clemson University,
1971):
1. pH; The processes of dyeing, bleaching, and adding of
certain finishes require aqueous baths of varying
alkaline and acid content. Thus, some form of neutrali-
zation is necessary to ensure discharges within the re-
quired range;
2. Temperature; Large amounts of water are used which are
heated above 100°F. Such temperatures are above any
state's standards and must be controlled;
3. Color; The dyeing process produces an effluent that can
impart an unsightly color if discharged directly to
receiving streams;
4. Sludge Deposits; Textile wastes contain inorganic chem-
icals, fiber, and other insoluable materials which must
be controlled;
5. Dissolved Oxygen; Many of the process chemicals used in
dyeing and finishing are high in biochemical oxygen demand
which is reduced to meet permit standards; and
6. Toxic Materials; A number of chemical finishes and dyes
contain chromium and phenolic compounds which are toxic
to the aquatic environment.
Most of the naturally occurring waste effluents are biode-
gradable. However, many of the synthetic fibers, polymers, and
finishes are more resistant to biological degradation.
8-8
-------
The human health risk of the chemicals used in the dyeing and
finishing processes is uncertain. The review process for new
chemicals required by the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA) ad-
dresses this problem. TSCA requires that new chemicals be tested
for their possible adverse health effect before commercializa-
tion. In addition, the U.S. is working within the framework of
the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development in coop-
eration with other member countries to establish common testing
procedures for new chemicals. It is expected that when testing
procedures are established and standardized, chemicals which are
presently not affected by TSCA (i.e., those which were produced
before TSCA took effect) will also be tested for their potential
adverse health effects.
8.3.2 Air Related Concerns
Air pollution from textile mills consists of particulates
such as dust and lint and hydrocarbons from the process chemicals
(U.S., EPA, 1976). Hydrocarbon emissions in North and South
Carolina accounted for 5,112 and 11,480 tons per year respective-
ly in 1977 (U.S., EPA, 1980). On a statewide basis this repre-
sents 5 percent and 22 percent of the total point source hydro-
carbon emissions. However, in some locations such as metropoli-
tan Charlotte, textile mills account for 66 percent of the total
hydrocarbon emissions (U.S., EPA, 1980). Solvent processing of
knit fabrics produces the major air quality threat due to the
potential emissions of chlorinated hydrocarbons, trichlorethene
and perchlorethene. This is largely an occupational safety
threat and is limited to the immediate vicinity within the plant
where these chemicals are being used. In addition, recovery of
these chemicals is important for economic reasons, and the
available technology incorporates solvent recovery as part of the
process.
A significant industrial health problem associated with the
textile industry is the occupational hazard linked to long-term
exposure to cotton dust. The term most used is "brown lung", or
byssinosis, which is a respiratory disease characterized by
shortness of breath, coughing and tightness of the chest. In re-
sponse to this potential health hazard, the Occupational Safety
and Health Administration (OSHA) has developed standards designed
to protect textile plant workers from brown lung disease. The
industry has resisted the implementation of these standards based
on cost/benefit relationships. However, a recent U.S. Supreme
Court decision upheld the OSHA standards saying such a regulation
could be challenged only when the standards might not be techni-
cally achievable or when its expense might jeopardize economic
health of the affected industry ("Court Rebuffs," 1981).
8-9
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8.3.3 Solid Wastes
At one time, 3.6 percent by weight (dry basis) of the indus-
try's total process wastes for land disposal was considered to be
potentially hazardous (Cooper, 1978) (also see Chapter 15). The
two major categories of this potentially hazardous waste are
heavy metals and dyestuffs. Specific components include chemi-
cals used in dyeing and finishing operations, such as acids, al-
kalies, bleaches, adhesives and polymers, crosslinking agents,
carbonizing agents (wool), conditioners, catalysts, detergents,
dye carriers, chemical finishes (including flame retardants), and
solvents (Cooper, 1978).
Table 8-5 contains 1974 estimates for solid wastes for North
Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia combined, again demon-
strating the concentrated nature of the industry (Versar, 1976).
TABLE 8-5: ESTIMATES OF TEXTILE SOLID WASTE, 1974
Category
North Carolina, Percent
South Carolina, of Total
Georgia Textile
(metric tons) Industry
Estimated quantities of
total wastes
Estimated quantities of
potentially hazardous
dye and chemical containing
wastes
Estimated quantities of
total potentially hazardous
wastewater treatment sludge
119,092
38
4,470
7,401
45
19
Source: Versar, 1976.
8-10
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The criteria used for determining the concentration at which tex-
tile wastes were considered potentially hazardous were the drink-
ing water standards for specific heavy metals and total organics.
However, based on the more recent results of leachate extractions
and whole sludge analyses from industry studies, EPA did not in-
clude textile sludge wastes on the hazardous waste list of the
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act regulations published May
19, 1980 (Shockley, 1981).
8.4 SUMMARY
Most of the environmental uncertainties associated with the
textile industry are due to two conditions: (1) the variation in
waste loads among individual textile processing plants; (2) the
use of chemicals of which little is known concerning their
potential adverse human health effects. As a result, these con-
ditons make difficult broad generalizations regarding the poten-
tial environmental threat posed by the textile industry.
The high geographic concentration of the industry in Region 4
and more specifically, the Carolinas and Georgia, magnify the
significance of these concerns. Not only are environmental im-
pacts of effluents, hydrocarbon emissions and solid wastes con-
centrated, but an adverse shift in some of the industry's key
economic factors could have severe implications for a large work-
force concentrated in those three states.
8-11
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REFERENCES
American Textile Manufactures Institute, Staff. January 11,
1982. Personal communication.
Bahorsky, Michael S. 1974. "Major Sources of Waste." In U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. In-Plant Control of
Pollution, Chapter II. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency.
Clemson University, Department of Textiles. 1971. State of the
Art of Textile Waste Treatment, for U.S., Environmental Pro-
tection Agency,Water Quality Office. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
Cooper, Sidney G. 1978. The Textile Industry; Environmental
Control and Energy Conservation. Park Ridge, N.J.: Noyes
Data Corporation.
"Court Rebuffs Cost/Benefit Regulatory Approach." 1981. Oil and
Gas Journal 79 (June 29):64.
Denham, Miles E. 1980. "Oil Prices—What Effect on Fiber
Usage?" Modern Textiles, January, p. 26
Jones, H. R. 1973. Pollution Control in the Textile Industry.
Park Ridge, N. J.: Noyes Data Corporation.
Lockwood Greene Engineers, Inc. 1975. Water Pollution Abatement
Technology—Textile Industry—Capabilities and Costs.
Washington, D.C.: National Commission on Water Quality.
Meyer, Herbert E. 1980. "How U.S. Textiles Got to Be Winners in
the Export Game." Fortune 101 (May 5):260-70.
North Carolina, Department of Natural Resources and Community
Development, Staff. January 13, 1982. Personal communi-
cation.
North Carolina Water Resources Research Institute, Staff.
January 13, 1982. Personal communication.
"The Ripples Spreading from the Stevens Pact." 1980. Business
Week, November 3, pp. 107-10.
8-12
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Shockley, W. Ray, American Textile Manufacturers Institute, Inc.
September 2, 1981. Personal communication.
"Soaring Energy Costs Show Need for Efficient Drying." 1981.
Modern Textiles, January, p. 26.
Stodden, John R. 1980. "The Textile Economy: Another
Drumbeat?" Textile World, January, pp. 58-70.
Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976, Pub. L. 94-469, 90 Stat.
2003.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
1980. Regional Economic Projections. Washington, D.C.:
BEA.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Industry and Trade Administration.
1981. 1981 Industrial Outlook for 200 Industries with
Projections for 1985. Washington: Government Printing
Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. 1974. Textile Mills
Point Source Category, EPA-440/l-74-022a. Washington,
D. C.: U. S., Environmental Protection Agency.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency. 1976. "Environmental
Considerations of Selected Energy Conserving Manufacturing
Process Options." Textile Industry Report, Vol. IX,
EPA-600/7-76-034i. Washington, D. C.: U. S., Environmental
Protection Agency.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards, Monitoring and Data Analysis
Division, National Air Data Branch. 1980, 1977 National
Emissions Report, National Emissions Data System of the
Aerometric and Emissions Reporting System. Research Triangle
Park, N.C.: U.S., EPA.
Versar, Inc. 1976. Assessment of Industrial Hazardous Waste
Practices, Textile Industry. Springfield, Va.: National
Technical Information Service.
8-13
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CHAPTER 9
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOREST MANAGEMENT
HIGHLIGHTS
• Status and Trends
1. Agriculture and forestry are locally major economic
activities with secondary economic benefits. Cattle
ranching is the major agricultural product in the Southern
Plains, soybeans are the major product in the Delta
states, and a range of products, including tobacco,
broilers, and oranges dominate the Southeast.
2. Agricultural crops have changed dramatically in the past.
For example, although cotton has declined region wide, it
continues to be important in the Delta and Southern
Plains states. Soybeans, wheat, and corn are projected to
continue major increases in acreage planted and earnings.
3. Insecticide application in the South has shifted from
organochlorine to organophosphate compounds and the total
amount applied has apparently stabilized in the South.
Herbicide application continues to increase dramatically.
• Geographic Areas
4. Recent cotton farming practices in Texas and Oklahoma
have allowed major reductions in insecticide use. The
dramatic reduction in insecticide applications is
apparently due to the varieties of cotton cultivated
and specific pest management practices.
5. Application of insecticide and herbicide is greatest in
the Delta states and may continue to increase in these
states and in the Southeast.
6. Bottomland hardwoods stands continue to be reduced in
Delta and Southeastern states, contributing to a further
reduction in hardwood acreage and an increase in soybean
and other crop acreage.
9-i
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• Key Problems and Issues
7. Reduction in the physical availability of ground water is
likely to result in changed agriculture practices in
parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. Regional water
availability may be a major problem as more farmers seek
to irrigate their fields.
8. Farm management practices are resulting in increased her-
bicide applications. This increase is likely to continue
to be an environmental issue.
9. Large acreages of privately managed southern forest held
by relatively small land owners appear to experience cut-
ting rates that exceed replacement. Erosion from access
roads and harvesting practices may also be a potential
environmental issue.
9-ii
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CHAPTER 9
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOREST MANAGEMENT
9.1 INTRODUCTION
Agriculture and forestry are significant driving forces with-
in the Sunbelt due to their use of large areas of land and their
multiplying economic effect within the region. In 1978 agricul-
ture directly provided 3 percent of total industrial earnings in
the region, and lumber, paper, and allied products accounted for
2 percent. These figures, however, belie the importance of farm-
ing and forestry, for they are basic industries supporting a large
network of related industries and commercial services. For every
million dollars worth of grain produced by 30 grain farmers, 32
other jobs (in wholesale and retail trade, transportation, chem-
icals, business services, machine manufacturing, etc.) are created
(Batie and Healy, 1980). In addition, earnings from forestry and
agriculture in the Sunbelt comprise an important share of the
national earnings in agriculture and forestry. In 1978, the Sun-
belt made up 29 percent of the total U.S. agricultural earnings
and 30 percent of the total U.S. lumber products earnings. Much
of the millions of metric tons of soybeans, wheat, rice, and cot-
ton that are exported from the U.S. to the world commodity market
is produced in the South.
Rising costs in agricultural inputs, such as energy, water,
machinery, and chemicals, along with losses in soil productivity,
may force important changes in farming and management practices
that will impact the South's environment. Continued demand for
grain exports and lumber, as well as expanding urbanization may
increase pressure on the South's reserves of potential cropland
and productive forests.
This chapter discusses the current status, probable future
developments, and potential environmental and health impacts of
agriculture and forestry in the Sunbelt. Because of differing
production factors as well as different environmental impacts,
agriculture and forestry are discussed separately.
9-1
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9.2 AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
A "golden age" of agricultural productivity occurred over the
last 30 years, particularly in the 1950's and 1960's. In gen-
eral, agricultural production in those years was enhanced by good
climate, research advances, improvements in mechanization and
technology, and inexpensive and abundant land, energy, and water
(Batie and Healy, 1980). The development of hybrids and effec-
tive fertilizers and pesticides facilitated the growth of large-
scale monoculture, in which large acreages are devoted to single
crop production. In addition, irrigation opened millions of
acres of naturally arid land to the cultivation of high-value,
water-intensive crops, such as alfalfa and corn.
Consequently, the annual growth rate of U.S. agricultural
output increased from 1.7 percent in the period 1950 to 1965 to
2.2 percent between 1965 and 1979. Labor productivity has been
growing by 5.5 percent annually since 1970, while in the rest of
the economy it has increased by only 1.5 percent. However, some
projections anticipate a growth in agricultural output closer to
1 percent annually in the future (Batie and Healy, 1980, p. 138).
In fact, land productivity or output per unit of land has dropped
from 2.6 percent growth rate in 1950 to 1.2 percent in 1979. The
status, trends, and environmental issues associated with the ma-
jor agricultural crops and products are discussed below.
9.2.1 Current Status
A. Land Use
A large proportion of land in the study area is used for
agricultural purposes—slightly over 80 percent for both federal
regions (Table 9-1). This agricultural land includes cropland,
pasture, rangeland, forest, and other land in farms. The Sunbelt
contains 24 percent of the nation's cropland, 41 percent of its
pasture and range, 43 percent of its forests, and 26 percent of
the total U.S. land.1
While both regions have similar proportions of cropland the
larger Region 6 has 17 million acres more. Actual acreages of
pasture land in the two regions are similar, with 31.4 million
acres in Region 6. However, the two regions differ significantly
in both proportionate and actual rangeland and forest acreage.
Florida is the only state in Region 4 with any significant range-
land (see Chapter 12). The Sunbelt contains about 56 million
acres or 7 percent of federally owned land in the country. Only
^Except for total land area, these percentages are for all
nonfederally owned land.
9-2
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TABLE 9-1:
AGRICULTURAL LAND USE IN REGIONS 4 AND 6, 1977a
(thousands of acres)
State
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
Cropland
4,499
3,189
6,487
5,428
7,302
6,197
3,331
4,928
41,361
7,990
5,899
2,282
11,783
30,439
58,393
99,754
412,970
Pasture
4,122
5,483
3,234
5,735
4,041
2,030
1,242
5,474
31,361
5,628
2,945
382
8,713
18,768
36,436
67,797
132,706
Range
0
3,017
0
0
30
0
0
0
3,047
248
326
42,096
14,566
95,401
152,637
155,684
414,073
Forest
19,792
12,140
21,566
10,648
14,412
16,813
10,770
11,638
117,779
14,072
12,595
3,426
4,931
9,240
44,264
162,043
376,135
Total
Other Agricul-
Land tural
in Farms lands
327
355
283
412
338
442
154
351
2,662
296
220
267
356
1,493
2,632
5,294
23,006
28,740
24,184
31,570
22,223
26,123
25,482
15,497
22,391
196,210
28,234
21,985
48,453
40,349
155,341
294,362
490,572
1,358,890
Percent-
Total age Agri-
Land cultural
Area lands
32,434
34,473
37,160
25,399
30,225
31,208
19,301
26,403
236,603
33,291
28,746
77,720
43,920
167,782
351,459
588,062
2,262,683
89
70
85
87
86
82
80
85
83
85
77
62
92
93
84
83
60
Source: Calculated from Hidlebaugh, 1981.
aFor a more extensive description of land use categories (e.g., forest and range) see Chapter 12.
-------
a small percentage of these federal lands are leased for crop or
grazing purposes (McGill, Hidlebaugh and Yovino, 1981).
B. Major Crops and Products
In the Sunbelt, agriculture traditionally has consisted of
livestock and wheat ranching in the West, mixed farming in Appa-
lachian areas, and cotton and tobacco farming in the Southeast.
On the basis of cash receipts livestock production is most impor-
tant within the study area. Cattle ranching takes place through-
out the area, but most predominantly in Texas, Oklahoma, and
Florida; sheep are raised in Texas; concentrations of large cus-
tom cattle feedlots exist in eastern New Mexico and in the Texas
and Oklahoma panhandles; swine are raised in North Carolina,
Kentucky, and Georgia; and dairy farms are located throughout the
study area (with very few in New Mexico). Poultry production is
particularly important in the South, with Arkansas, Alabama,
Mississippi, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina leading produc-
ers. In some states, cash receipts from the sale of livestock
and livestock products are considerably larger than those from
the sale of crops (Table 9-2). In each of the states in the
Sunbelt, some form of livestock is in the top three commodities.
While the pasture and rangeland that support livestock occupy
a large proportion of land in the study area, this land is man-
aged much less intensively than cropland and requires neither the
frequent application of chemicals nor the compacting action on
the soil by heavy machinery. Most importantly, it does not re-
quire seeding or harvesting, which exposes soils thereby increas-
ing erosion and runoff.
In the past forty years marked changes have occurred in crop-
land production in the South. For example, in 1940 nine southern
states (Georgia, Alabama, North and South Carolina, Tennessee,
Mississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, and Louisiana) produced 60 per-
cent of the U.S. total cotton; by 1975 these nine states produced
only half as much, representing 37 percent of the U.S. total.
This decline can be attributed to a lowered export demand as use
of synthetic fibers grew, and to the development of larger and
more efficient farms in the western portion of the Sunbelt.
In contrast, soybean production has expanded clramatically--
from 5.4 million bushels in 1940 (7 percent of U.S. total) to 523
million bushels in 1975 (33 percent of the U.S. total) (Fornari,
1979). By 1981 more cropland was planted to soybeans than to any
other crop in the Sunbelt. Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi
are the prime soybean states--large areas of bottomland hardwood
forest in these states have been cleared and planted to soybeans
in the last two decades.
9-4
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TABLE 9-2:
CASH RECEIPTS FROM FARM MARKETING, 1979
(millions of dollars)
State
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North
Carolina
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
Livestock
and
Livestock
Products
1,282
995
1,622
914
892
1,424
374
955
8,458
1,562
527
881
2,103
6,092
11,165
20,623
68,639
Crops
771
2,898
1,340
1,141
1,192
1,974
685
824
10,825
1,600
1,111
240
1,127
3,879
7,957
18,782
62,820
Total
2,053
3,893
2,962
2,055
2,084
3,397
1,060
1,779
19,283
3,162
1,638
1,121
3,230
9,971
19,122
38,405
131,349
Leading
Commodities by Cash Receipts
Broilers, cattle, soybeans
Oranges, cattle, greenhouse
Broilers, peanuts, soybeans
Tobacco, cattle, soybeans
Soybeans, cotton, cattle
Tobacco, broilers, hogs
Soybeans, tobacco, cattle
Soybeans, cattle, dairy
Soybeans, broilers, rice
Soybeans, cattle, rice
Cattle, dairy products, hay
Cattle, wheat, cotton
Cattle, cotton, wheat
Source: USDA, 1980, pp. 32-33.
9-5
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Wheat production has increased dramatically in the nation.
The South has increased its wheat acreage from 15 to 23 million
acres in just two years. Its share of wheat production grew from
22 percent in 1979 to 27 percent in 1981.
As shown in Table 9-3, in 1981 the Sunbelt planted more than
four-fifths of the U.S. acreage in cotton, rice, peanuts, tobac-
co, and sugar cane. These crops tend to be localized within par-
ticular areas of the South. Rice, for example, is only grown in
Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi. In contrast corn,
sorghum, wheat, and soybeans are planted throughout the region,
covering over 65 million acres or 78 percent of the acreage
planted to the nine major field crops in 1981.
In the western portion of the study area sorghum and wheat,
crops well suited to growing in semiarid conditions, are the ma-
jor crops; large acreages of cotton are also grown in this area.
In 1981 Texas and Oklahoma grew 34 percent of the national sor-
ghum acreage plus 18 percent of the total U.S. wheat acreage,
while Texas alone had over half the U.S. acreage in cotton.
Other small grains, hay, forage crops, and rangeland provide the
basis for cattle ranching in the area.
In the Delta states (Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas),
the principal crops are soybeans, wheat, and cotton. Arkansas
and Mississippi are also two of the top five states in the nation
in poultry production. Farther east in the study area soybeans,
corn, peanuts, and tobacco are more important crops. Florida
grows far less of any of the major crops (except sugar cane)
since it devotes large acreages to citrus and winter vegetable
production.
C. Factors in Crop Production
The last decade of growing export demand has witnessed an
increase in cropland as well as an increase in the use of fertil-
izers, pesticides, and irrigation waters. This section discusses
the current use of these inputs by southern farmers, as well as
the influence of export demand on the South's agricultural indus-
try.
1. Fertilizer Use
The use of fertilizers in the Sunbelt has increased yields
per acre, but it is also a significant contributor to nonpoint
source pollution. West-central Oklahoma, the panhandles of Texas
and Oklahoma, and the Delta region are areas of particularly high
fertilizer use. Between 1965 and 1978 subregions within the
South increased their consumption from 39 to 75 percent as shown
in Table 9-4.
9-6
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TABLE 9-3:
ACREAGE PLANTED TO MAJOR CROPS, 1981
(thousands of acres)
State
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georg I a
Kentucky
Mississippi
North
Carol ina
South
Carol Ina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
vO Arkansas
1 Louisiana
^ New Mexico
Ok 1 ahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt
Total
Percent of
U.S.
U.S. Total
Soybeans
2,100
475
2,300
1,750
3,800
1,920
1,600
2,450
16,395
4,550
3,180
—
280
700
8,710
25,105
37
68,540
Wheat
650
—
1,150
810
650
440
400
1,025
5,125
1,750
310
700
7,900
7,800
18,460
23,585
27
88,792
Cotton
330
13
170
—
1,300
79
120
330
2,342
620
640
147
670
7,418
9,495
11,837
83
14,203
Corn
580
451
1,600
1,680
190
2,000
645
805
7,951
65
45
109
115
1,300
1,634
9,585
11
84,627
Sorghum
75
—
200
41
80
110
35
90
631
330
50
306
700
4,800
6,186
6,817
42
16,143
Rice
—
—
—
—
340
—
—
—
340
1,600
650
—
—
590
2,840
3,180
83
3,842
Peanuts
211
69
560
—
8
172
16
—
1,037
—
—
10
122
290
422
1,459
93
1,563
Tobacco3
1
10
53
237
—
358
67
75
801
—
—
—
—
—
—
801
85
946
Sugar Cane3
—
340
—
—
—
—
—
—
340
—
260
—
—
38
298
638
86
744
Source: USDA, Statistical Reporting Service, Crop Reporting Board, 1981.
aFor tobacco and sugar cane, figures represent estimates of area to be harvested.
-------
TABLE 9-4: FERTILIZERS APPLIED TO HARVESTED ACREAGE3
Region3
South Atlantic
Acres harvested
Fertilizer
(Ib/acre)
(thousands of
tons )
East South-
central
Acres harvested
Fertilizer
(Ib/acre)
(thousands of
tons )
West South-
central
Acres harvested
Fertilizer
(Ib/acre)
(thousands of
tons )
United States
Acres harvested
Fertilizer
(Ib/acre)
(thousands of
tons )
1965
15,116
229
1,731
15,068
135
1,015
38,012
59
1,113
294,121
75
10,985
1970
13,873
300
2,081
14,964
162
1,210
38,151
93
1,779
283,180
113
16,068
1975
16,330
261
2,131
17,993
142
1,274
44,660
77
1,728
324,202
108
17,571
1978
16,633
289
2,406
20, 240
153
1,550
42,325
92
1,947
324,836
127
20,599
% Change
1965-78
+ 10
+ 26
+ 39
+ 34
+ 12
+ 53
+ 11
+ 56
+ 75
+ 10
+ 69
+ 88
Source: Data compiled from Batie and Healy, 1980, pp. 101-2.
aThe South Atlantic refers to Florida, Georgia, South Carolina,
North Carolina, Virginia, Delaware, Maryland, West Virginia, and
The District of Columbia. The East Southcentral region is
Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. The West South-
central region is made up of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and
Louisiana.
9-8
-------
The amount of fertilizers applied reflects changes in the ex-
tent of harvested cropland within each region, as well as in the
intensity of fertilizer use. Table 9-4 shows that per acre ap-
plications also increased from 1965 to 1978. Two southern re-
gions, the South Atlantic and the East Southcentral started with
higher than average application rates per acre in 1965. While
application rates in these two regions did not increase as fast
as in other regions, by 1978 they still were applying heavier
amounts of fertilizer. In fact, the South Atlantic has the high-
est application rate in the nation.
Some of these patterns of regional variations in fertilizer
use depend on the crops planted. As indicated earlier, the four
major southern crops are soybeans, wheat, cotton, and corn. Corn
and cotton also have the highest rates of fertilizer application
in the U.S., at 103 and 78 pounds of nitrogen per acre (U.S.,
EPA, 1977). However, soybeans and wheat, two crops whose produc-
tion has increased in recent years, have much smaller fertilizer
requirements—only 15 and 46 pounds, respectively. Thus, the in-
crease in soybean acreage has generally reduced the trend toward
greater fertilizer use in the South.
2. Pesticide Use
The development and use of chemical pesticides since the
1940's has been one of the most important factors making U.S.
agriculture efficient and productive. Pesticides is a general
term that includes insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, and other
miscellaneous pesticides such as fumigants, defoliants, dessi-
cants, and plant growth regulators. These chemicals have ac-
counted for at least 10 percent of the increase in farm output
during the last 30 years (Wittwer, 1980). But because pesticides
may affect many organisms, they can damage beneficial species of
insects, plants, and wildlife; they may result in the build-up of
genetic resistance in insects; and they may threaten human health.
Nearly all farm pesticides are applied to crops; only 2 percent
are applied to livestock (mostly to beef cattle) to control flies
(Eichers et. al., 1978). Southern farmers also make extensive use
of fungicides and miscellaneous pesticides as well. Most of the
19.4 million pounds of fumigants used in the U.S. in 1976, for
example, were applied to tobacco; nearly all of the 8.6 million
pounds of defoliants and dessicants were used as cotton harvesting
aids; and all of the 6.3 million pounds of plant growth regulators
9-9
-------
were applied to tobacco and peanuts.1 Since cotton, tobacco, and
peanuts are grown largely in the South, this area of the country
receives a large proportion of the total miscellaneous pesticides
applied to crops in the U.S.^
(a) Insecticides
Farmers use three major kinds of insecticides: organochlo-
rines, organophosphates, and carbamates. The organochlorines, of
which DDT and toxaphene are examples, are persistent, remaining
active three to five years after application, and they also tend
to accumulate in the food chain. The organophosphates and car-
bamates, which increasingly are used as substitutes for the orga-
nochlorines, are more short-lived. They are, however, toxic, and
therefore represent a health hazard. In 1964 the South treated
9.2 million acres (mostly cotton) with 26.9 million pounds of
DDT; this was 84 percent of all the DDT used in the nation. By
1976, however, use of DDT was no longer allowed. Instead, 31
million pounds of organophosphates along with 26 million pounds
of toxaphene were used to control cotton pests.
In 1976 the South applied 86.3 million pounds of insecticide
to its major field crops or 66 percent of the total used by U.S.
farmers (Table 9-5). This, however, represented a decline in
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates on pesti-
cides application are disputed. The USDA surveys of pesticide use
conducted in 1964, 1966, 1971, and 1976 are the most complete time
series data on pesticides. Research on pesticides conducted by
von Rumker et al. in 1975 found the 1971 USDA estimates were con-
siderably and consistently lower than their own estimates. Total
insecticide use estimated by USDA for 1971, for example, was 82.8
million pounds, while von Rumker estimated 135.6 million pounds.
Thus, while the discussion in this section uses USDA reports, it
is possible that absolute figures may be serious underestimates of
actual pesticide use. The assumption is made, however, that error
has been systematic and unidirectional for each survey, so that
meaningful comparisons can be made of trends in usage over the
years .
pesticide data is given by USDA agricultural regions.
The regions that contain Sunbelt states are Appalachian (Kentucky,
Tennessee, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Virginia), Southeast
(Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida), Delta (Arkansas,
Louisiana, and Mississippi), and the Southern Plains (Texas and
Oklahoma). About 20 percent of the acreage planted to major crops
in the Appalachian region is in West Virginia and Virginia. Also,
New Mexico is part of an eight state Mountain region which is not
included in the following discussion. New Mexico has comparatively
little cropland, however, so that its use of pesticides is rela-
tively minor.
9-10
-------
TABLE 9-5: INSECTICIDE USE ON MAJOR CROPS IN THE SOUTHa
AND THE U.S.
(thousands of pounds)
Crop
Corn
Cotton
Wheatb
Sorghum"
Soybeans
Tobacco
Peanuts"
Riceb
Other grains*3
South
1964 1971
1,264 508
73,100 70,512
1,444
3,700
4,446 5,477
5,315 3,978
5,990
817
453
1976 1964
3,182 15,668
59,787 78,022
4,650
1,953
8,977 4,997
3,159 5,471
2,439
508
1,459
U.S.
1971
25,531
73,357
1,712
5,729
5,621
3,999
5,993
946
821
1976
31,979
64,139
7,236
4,604
7,866
3,240
2.439
508
1,823
Alflafa, hay,
and forage"
Pasture and rangeb
Subtotal15
Total
Percent
of U.S. Total
282 1,704 2,448 6,350
158 108 161 114
(8,293) (12,844) (12,821) (12,551) (17,810) (23,074)
92,418 93,322 86,327 116,709 126,318 130,298
79
74
66
Sources: Data compiled from Eichers et al./ 1968 and 1978; and Andrilenas,
1974.
aSouth is Region 4 including Virginia and West Virginia and Region 6,
excluding New Mexico.
b1964 data are aggregated, therefore comparable totals for these crops are
given in parentheses.
9-11
-------
insecticide use from 1964, when the South used 92.4 million pounds
or 79 percent of all the insecticides used. The Mississippi
Delta, the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, central Florida, the
Gulf Coasts of Texas and Louisiana, and the coastal to central
areas of North and South Carolina and Georgia apply insecticides
to the largest acreages.1
There is considerable variation in the percentage of a crop
that is treated by insecticides. About 90 percent of all cotton
in the South is treated, while only about 25 percent of soybeans
and corn is treated. Table 9-6 compares insecticide application
rates for different crops in 1971 and 1976. The South consis-
tently applied more pounds of insecticide per acre than did the
United States as a whole.
The South, however, has cut its insecticide application rate
nearly in half between 1971 and 1976 from 1.18 pounds per acre in
1971 to .63 in 1976. Large reductions were made Ln the amounts
applied to the tobacco, peanut, and cotton crops. However some
application rates increased on wheat, soybeans, other grains, and
hays.
This reduction in insecticide use has not been uniform
throughout the South, however. Table 9-7 compares insecticide
use in 1971 and 1976 by the four U.S. Department of Agriculture
(USDA) regions that most closely approximate the Sunbelt—
Appalachian, Southeast, Delta, and Southern Plains^, in actual
pounds used, the Delta and the Southeast states applied by far
the most in both years, with over 30 million pounds each in 1976.
Half the insecticide used in the nation goes on crops in these two
USDA regions.3
Cotton is a key crop in understanding the general pattern of
insecticide applications. The Southeast states apply two-thirds
of their insecticide on cotton with the rest on soybeans and pea-
nuts, while the Delta applies virtually all of its insecticide on
the most part the insecticide applications in these
states are to acreages of soybeans, cotton, corn, alfalfa, wheat,
peanuts, and tobacco; and fruit and vegetable acreages in
Florida.
^Appalachian includes Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina,
West Virginia, and Virginia; Southeast is Alabama, Georgia, South
Carolina, and Florida; Delta states are Arkansas, Louisiana, and
Mississippi; Southern Plains is Texas and Oklahoma.
3The Appalachian and Southern Plains states apply far less
insecticide and apply it more evenly over a larger number of
crops (see Table 9-A1 in the Appendix for a complete breakdown by
major crops).
9-12
-------
TABLE 9-6: PESTICIDE APPLICATION RATES IN THE SOUTHa
(pounds per acre)
1971
Insec-
Crop ticide
Corn
Cotton 6
Wheat
Sorghum
Soybeans
Tobacco 5
Peanuts 3
Rice
Other grain
Alfalfa & hay
Pasture
Total South
Total South
excluding
pasture 1
U.S. Total
excluding
pasture
NA = Not available.
.05
.53
.13
.37
.36
.22
.94
.55
.06
.02
(b)
.33
.18
.41
Sources: Data calculated
Eichers et al., 1978.
Herb-
icide
.94
1.64
.02
.42
.88
NA
2.87
4.77
(b)
.01
.02
.21
.71
.65
from Andrilenas,
1976
Insec-
ticide
.26
5.93
.27
.21
.48
3.25
1.59
.24
.32
.14
b
.34
.63
.38
1974 and 1975;
Herb-
icide
2.42
1.60
.06
.66
1.59
1.16
2.19
4.04
.05
.03
.01
.39
1.08
1.07
and
aSouth is Regions 4 and 6, including Virginia and West Virginia,
but excluding New Mexico.
than .01 pounds per acre.
9-13
-------
TABLE 9-7: INSECTICIDE APPLLICATION RATES TO SELECTED MAJOR CROPS, BY REGION9
(pounds per acre)
Appalachian
Crop
Corn
Cotton
Wheat
Soybeans
Tobacco
Peanuts
Average all
major field
cropsc
Total pounds
used
(thousand
pounds )
Sources: Data
1971
.08
5.55
(b)
.26
4.01
3.92
.51
8,705
1976
.17
8.02
.12
.19
2.77
4.17
.50
9,548
calculated from
Southeast
1971
.01
19.49 21
(b)
1.01 1
10.79 5
4.76 1
3.05 2
35,667 30,
Andrilenas ,
1976
.22
.98
(b)
.66
.70
.28
.22
124
1974
Delta
1971
.08
9.63
.16
.21
—
.30
1.95
31,812
and 1975;
1976
05
9.77
(b)
.02
—
(b)
1.80
33,653 16
and Eichers
Southern Plains
1971
.07
1.80
.16
.08
—
2.51
.50
,980
et al .
1976
.70
.46
.31
.24
—
.59
.35
12,893
, 1978
Appalachian includes Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, West Virginia, and
Virginia; Southeast is Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Florida; Delta states
are Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi; Southern Plains is Texas and Oklahoma.
bLess than .01 Ib per acre.
cAverage for U.S. was 0.41 in 1971 and 0.38 in 1976.
-------
cotton. Texas and Oklahoma harvested the largest acreage of cot-
ton in 1976, with 5.3 million acres, compared to 3.3., 0.9 and 0.5
million acres in the Delta, Southeast, and Appalachia. Yet,
unlike other Sunbelt states, the Southern Plains states applied
the least amount of insecticide to cotton.
Southern Plains farmers have utilized a shorter season vari-
ety of cotton that is ready for harvest before insect problems
become severe. The more arid climate in the region allows the
farmer to avoid both the economic losses from insect damage and
heavy spraying. A major drop in insecticide use in the South be-
tween 1964 and 1976 resulted from the adoption of new plant vari-
eties and improved insect management practices, primarily by Texan
cotton farmers and also by tobacco farmers in the Appalachian and
Southeastern states (Crosson and Brubaker, 1981).
(b) Herbicides
Herbicide use increased over 400 percent in the U.S. from 1964
to 1976. The South's share remained constant at around 26 per-
cent from 1964 to 1976. As shown in Table 9-8, total application
in the South increased from about 19 million pounds to 98 million
pounds during this period. This large increase was caused by
increasing applications to corn, soybeans, sorghum, and wheat.
Although acreage planted to these major field crops also increas-
ed in these years, the growth in herbicide applications far out-
paced the growth in acreage planted. Considering pounds of her-
bicide used per acre, the South increased from 0.71 pounds per
acre in 1971 to 1.08 in 1976, which was similar to the increase
in the nation—from 0.65 to 1.07 (Table 9-6).
As shown in Table 9-9, the Delta states are first in the to-
tal amount of herbicides applied (34 million pounds), with the
Appalachian states a close second (31 million pounds). The
Southern Plains applied the least with 12 million pounds, even
though it has the largest acreage planted to major field crops,
hay, and pasture. The declines in usage on cotton, rice, and
pasture and range in Texas and Oklahoma were offset by a huge
increase (over 1,000 percent) in herbicide used on corn; other-
wise total herbicide use by the two states might have shown a
decline.
In the other three regions a substantial increase occurred in
the amount of herbicides applied to soybeans. The Southeast, for
example, applied less than half a pound per acre in 1971, but 1.7
pounds per acre by 1976.
In the Appalachian and Delta regions large increases per acre
also occurred. All regions but the Delta showed large increases
in the pounds of herbicide per acre applied to corn; in Appala-
chian the increase was from 1.31 to 3.53 pounds per acre.
9-15
-------
TABLE 9-8: HERBICIDES USED ON MAJOR CROPS IN THE SOUTH3
AND THE U.S.
(thousands of pounds)
South
Crop 1964 1971
Corn 2,653 8,872
Cotton 4,515 17,685
Wheatb 64 177
Sorghumb 461 4,208
Soybeans 612 13,385
Tobacco*3 a
3,060
Peanutsb [_ J 4,371
Riceb 1 7,096
4,380
Other grainsb _ 37
Alfalfa, hay,
and forageb 2,709 170
Pasture and
rangeb 4,799
Totals 18,454 60,800
Percent
of U.S. Total 26 29
Herbicides
U.S.
1976 1964 1971 1976
29,263 25,476 101,060 207,
16,112 4,628 27,610 18,
1,122 9,178 11,622 21,
6,072 1,966 11,538 15,
29,834 4,208 36,519 81,
1,132 1 a 1,
11,206
3,357 (_ J 4,374 3,
8,452 ~ 1 7,985 8,
9,119
221 |_ J 5,377 5,
358 4,687 627 1,
2,254 8,336 9,
98,177 70,468 207,048 373,
26
061
312
879
719
063
209
366
507
476
642
644
878
Sources: Data compiled from Eichers et al., 1968 and 1978; and Andrilenas,
1974.
aHerbicide used on tobacco not available for 1971.
b1964 data are aggregated for these crops, therefore comparable totals
for these crops are given in parentheses.
9-16
-------
TABLE 9-9: HERBICIDE APPLICATION RATES TO SELECTED MAJOR CROPS, BY REGION
(pounds per acre)
Crop
Corn
Cotton
Wheat
Soybeans
Tobacco
Peanuts
Other grain
Average All
Major Field
Crops*5
Total Poundsc
Used 12
(thousands
of pounds)
Sources: Data
Appalachian
1971 1976
1.31
1.60
.01
.87
5.24
(a)
.73
,030
3.53
1.47
.06
1.77
3.67
.11
1.68
30,773
calculated from
Southeast
1971 1976
.61
2.18
.03
.47
3.31
(a)
.80
9,237 17
Andrilenas
1.80
1.11
(a)
1.71
2.53
.01
1.32
,729
, 1974
Delta Southern
1971 1976 1971
1.07
3.17
(a)
1.03
.50
(a)
1.47
23,942
and 1975;
.96 .16
3.46 .69
.05 .02
1.55 .35
(a) .62
(a) (a)
1.81 .32
33,837 10,792
and Eichers et al . ,
Plains
1976
.94
.52
.07
.02
.66
.04
.33
12,452
1978.
aLess than 0.01 Ib per acre.
^Average for U.S. was 0.65 in 1971 and 1.07 in 1976.
°Does not include the amounts applied to pasture and range.
-------
(c) Summary of Pesticides
Although many changes have occurred in the use of pesticides
in the past 15 years, some major patterns include the following:
• Organophospates and carbamates have replaced the more
persistent organochlorines (DDT); this is a significant
environmental benefit. Cotton has required large
applications of insecticides, and the South received 93
percent of cotton insecticides in 1976;
• The South has shown a consistant reduction in insec-
ticide use from 1971 to 1976. However, Delta and
Southeastern states remain heavy users—50 percent of
insecticide use in the U.S. The Southern Plains
applied the least insecticide to cotton, accounting for
a major reduction in use;
• A dramatic increase in herbicide applications has
occurred. This has been most significant in the Delta
region; and
• Very large increases in herbicide application to corn
have offset reductions in herbicide use to many crops
in the Southern Plains states.
These changes indicate that projecting trends in pesticides ap-
plications is likely to be difficult. Application rates in the
South have varied around changing crop patterns, new insecticide
types, new crop varieties and new pest management strategies.
3. Irrigation
In the Sunbelt, irrigation is primarily important to Florida,
the Delta region, and the panhandle areas of Texas and Oklahoma.
In Texas and Oklahoma, irrigation made possible the development
of a large concentrated network of beef cattle feedlots. Irri-
gated land in the High Plains of Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma
produces much of the corn, sorghum, and alfalfa feed to support
the beef industry located there. Nearly all of the water used
for irrigation purposes in this area is drawn from ground water.
Problems associated with the drawdown of the Ogallala aquifer are
discussed in Chapter 13 (Water Availability).
Table 9-10 shows irrigated land in the Sunbelt in 1974 and
1978. Nearly 80 percent of the irrigated land in the Sunbelt is
in Region 6—of this, by far the largest percentage is in Texas.
In Region 4, only Florida is a large irrigator. Florida and New
Mexico irrigate half their cropland, while Texas and Arkansas each
irrigate over 20 percent of their cropland. Importantly, pasture
and other farmland is also irrigated. In Florida major field
9-18
-------
TABLE 9-10: IRRIGATED LAND IN THE SUNBELT3
(thousands of acres)
State 1974 1978
Region 4
Alabama 14 59
Florida 1,559 1,991
Georgia 112 464
Kentucky 11 15
Mississippi 162 310
North Carolina 51 93
South Carolina 10 33
Tennessee 10 14
Total 1,929 2,999
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
Source: Compiled
1981.
949
702
867
515
6,594
9,627
11,556
41, 243
from U.S., Dept . of Commerce ,
1,686
682
904
602
7,018
10,892
13,871
50,838
Bur. of Census,
aAll land irrigated for agricultural purposes. These data are from
the U.S., Department of Commerce, Census of Agriculture, whose
estimates of irrigated land are lower than those in the National
Resource Inventory (USDA, SCS, 1978).
9-19
-------
crops comprise only two-thirds of the state's total irrigated
lands, with the other third composed of pasture, orchards, and
vegetables. New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas also irrigate sub-
stantial areas of pasture.
The southeastern states have increased their irrigated crop-
land in recent years largely as a response to several years of
drought that hit Georgia and Florida especially hard. In the
1980 drought, soybean yield fell by half. Although Region 6 and
Region 4 added similar actual acreages (over 1 million) to their
irrigated lands, this represented a percentage increase of 55
percent in Region 4 but only a 13 percent increase in Region 6.
With four consecutive years of drought (1977-1980) farmers in
southwest Georgia are drilling irrigation wells faster than any-
where in the country (Gibson, 1981). By 1980 Georgia irrigated
nearly one million acres of farmland. Many states of the South-
east are expected to expand their use of irrigation to help con-
trol the uncertainties of farming. However, since agriculture is
the largest user of water, particularly in the western part of
the Sunbelt, it is the sector most affected by water scarcity.
Such effects currently are being experienced in the High Plains
of Texas where some farmers have already switched back from irri-
gated feed grains to dryland production (see Chapter 13).
4. Farm Exports
The United States is the world's leading exporter of agricul-
tural products. Wheat, feed grains, and soybeans account for
about 60 percent of the total 32 billion dollars of farm exports
(USDA, 1980). Farm exports are an important factor in the na-
tion's balance of payments. In 1979 the aggregate net contribution
of agricultural exports to the U.S. balance of payments was over
16 billion dollars, nearly one-fifth of the nation's total exports
(USDA, 1980).
The proximity to ports and navigable rivers has given the
South an advantage in the export market and has had a major
effect on the Mississippi Delta area in particular. The Delta
states have shifted much of their rich alluvial soils from bot-
tomland forest to corn and soybeans. The result is a concen-
tration of very large cash grain farms in the Delta as well as in
the Great Plains (Batie and Healy, 1980). The southward shift in
feed grain production and the building of storage and other major
port facilities between Baton Rouge and the Gulf probably will
continue to focus foreign demand on the lower Mississippi Valley.
9-20
-------
9.2.2 Future Developments
A. Trends in Land Use
Cropland in the South has shifted in and out of production
according to market demands and agricultural practices. Between
1967 and 1975, for instance, 19.6 million acres shifted from
cropland to pasture in the South and 10 million acres shifted
from pasture to crops (Table 9-11). A study of land conversion
showed that quality cropland once converted to pasture and range
apparently has only a 50 percent chance for return to cropland
because of the economics of conversion, erosion problems, and
small tract size (as cited in Conner, Travis, and Trudeau, 1980).
More than half the agricultural land converted to other uses
in the U.S. between 1967 and 1977 was in the South. During this
time the Sunbelt lost 13.6 million acres of agricultural land to
urban, transportation, and water projects (see Chapter 12).
About 30 percent of this loss was from forest, 20 percent from
cropland, 20 percent from pasture and range, and the remaining 30
percent from conversion to idle land or rural residences.
However, the past loss in cropland may have been related to
"overproduction" of crops. In the 1950's and 1960's federal
policies idled cropland in an effort to avoid the overproduction
of crops and low farm prices. By 1981, however, this trend was
reversed and the South was planting nearly as much cropland as
was planted in 1949 (Frey, 1979; USDA, Statistical Reporting
Service, Crop Reporting Board, 1981). But this new cropland is
not the old idled cropland. The Delta states (Arkansas, Louisi-
ana, and Mississippi) are now planting one-third more cropland
than in 1949, while the other three regions of the South are
cropping far less than in 1949.
Despite these historic decreases and recent increases, most
of the potential new U.S. cropland is in the Sunbelt. Nearly
half the total 125 million acres of U.S. land with cropland con-
version potential are located in the Sunbelt (Table 9-12).
Twelve of the 24 million acres of convertible prime farmland in
the U.S. can be found in the South (Lee, 1978).
How much land actually shifts to the production of crops
depends on factors such as export demand, the cost of conversion,
the short-term rewards, state land protection policies, antici-
pated gains in productivity, and priorities of individual farmers
and landowners. It appears that land may continue to be brought
into cultivation as long as the demand remains strong and the
cost/price ratio is favorable. In general, growth opportunities
for agriculture in the South on a regionwide basis do not appear
to be limited by land availability over the near term.
9-21
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TABLE 9-11: LAND USE SHIFTS, 1967 TO 1975
(millions of acres)
From Cropland to
I
K)
NJ
Region
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta
Southern
Plains
Total South
Total U.S.
Pasture
and
Range
5.7
3.2
1.7
9.0
19.6
52.9
Forest
1.9
1.8
0.5
0.2
4.4
8.3
Urban
and
Water
0.8
0.7
0.4
0.8
2.7
13.0
Othera
0.8
1.6
0.2
0.8
3.4
5.4
Total
9.2
7.3
2.8
10.8
30.1
79.6
To Cropland from
Pasture
and
Range
3.2
1.9
1.6
3.3
10.0
31.9
Forest
1.9
2.2
2.1
0.3
6.5
11.0
Other3
0.8
0.4
0.2
0.2
1.6
5.8
Total
5.9
4.5
3.9
3.8
18.1
48.7
Net
Shift
in
Crop-
land
- 3.3
- 2.8
+ 1.1
- 7.0
-12.0
-30.9
Source: Data complied from Schenarts, 1981.
aOther is idle land or rural residences, etc.
-------
TABLE 9-12:
CURRENT CROPLAND AND NONFEDERAL LAND IN OTHER
USES WITH CROPLAND CONVERSION POTENTIAL, 1977
(millions of acres)
State
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Re gion 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt
Total
U.S. Total
Current
Crop-
land
4.5
3.2
6.5
5.4
7.3
6.2
3.3
4.9
41. 4d
8.0
5.9
2.3
11.8
30.4
58.4
99.8
413.0
Potential
Pasture
and
Range land
2.4
2.8
1.9
2.4
1.8
1.0
0.7
2.4
15.3
2.0
1.3
1.3
5.5
13.6
23.7
39.0
90.4
Conversion
Forest
1.8
0.8
3.9
0.6
1.9
3.9
1.5
1.3
15.7
1.2
1.6
(c)
0.3
0.5
3.5
19.2
30.9
to Croplanda
Otherb
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
0.1
(c)
0.1
0.3
0.1
(c)
(c)
(c)
0.1
0.3
0.6
3.4
Total
4.1
3.0
5.8
3.1
3.8
5.0
2.2
3.7
30.7
3.3
2.9
1.3
5.8
14.2
27.5
58.2
124.7
Potential
Future
Cropland
( current
plus
potential)
8.6
6.2
12.3
8.5
11.1
11.2
5.5
8.6
72.1
11.3
8.8
3.6
17.6
44.6
85.9
158.0
537.7
Source: Data compiled from USDA, SCS, 1978.
aHigh and medium potentials for conversion to cropland were based on commodity
prices, production costs, and development costs in 1976. The data in the
table may well change in the future as the relative cost of conversion declines
compared to commodity prices.
Bother nonfarm includes land used for greenbelts, unwooded parks, and other
nonfarm use.
cLess than 100,000 acres.
^Columns may not add to the totals because of rounding.
9-23
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B. Trends in Agricultural Earnings
Agricultural production is expected to continue its growth
during the next 30 years barring any major reduction in domestic
or export demand, according to the Department of Commerce (U.S.,
Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980). Expected income of the agricul-
tural industry is one measure of the growth and changing impor-
tance of agricultural production to a state's economy. Within
the Sunbelt the greatest relative increases in agricultural earn-
ings by the year 2010 are expected to occur in Kentucky, Okla-
homa, Louisiana, New Mexico, Florida, Texas, and Georgia, with
lower percentage increases in Alabama, Mississippi, South Caro-
lina, Arkansas, and Tennessee (Table 9-13). Overall U.S. agri-
cultural earnings are expected to increase by 59 percent while
the Sunbelt increases its earnings by 57 percent.
Little change is expected in the crops grown and the location
of production of major crops, except in the Delta states where an
expansion of rice production is expected in the future (Schertz
et al., 1979, p. 331). Soybeans are expected to remain the
leading crop, particularly in the Delta, and corn may remain an
important crop in most areas of the Southeast and Appalachian
regions. Peanut and tobacco production is expected to continue
in the present localized areas. Wheat should remain the most
important crop in the Southern Plains, while cotton is expected
to decline in importance.
As shown in Table 9-14, many factors will determine future crop
production. If changes occur in the availability or cost of fert-
ilizer, seed, or water, crop production will fluctuate. If pesti-
cide use is restricted, conversion of crop land to no-till agri-
culture will be hindered, resulting in greater soil erosion and
higher input costs than those currently anticipated. In addition,
improvements in pest control and further developments in produc-
tion technologies may influence the competitive advantage of some
crops and thus change the production mix in specific areas.
C. Trends in Farming Practices
The use of fertilizers and pesticides is expected to continue
to increase. As indicated in Figure 9-1, nationally, the use of
nitrogen fertilizer and pesticides has been projected to double
9-24
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TABLE 9-13:
PROJECTED GROWTH IN AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY EARNINGS3
(millions of 1972 dollars)
State
1978
1990
2000
2010
Percent
Change
1978-2010
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
411
912
521
437
416
1,069
213
282
4,260
665
242
160
253
880
2,200
6,459
22,125
386
1,107
634
605
428
1,107
221
276
4,763
670
315
200
407
1,211
2,802
7,564
25, 752
440
1,345
741
732
455
1,317
231
278
5,539
733
381
239
449
1,340
3,142
8,681
29,921
510
1,629
875
885
503
1,572
253
296
6,522
828
460
288
510
1,524
3,609
10,131
35,205
24
79
68
102
20
47
18
5
53
24
90
80
102
73
64
57
59
Source: Data calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980,
aSpecified by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as earnings of
"agriculture (farming)."
9-25
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TABLE 9-14: MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING CROP PRODUCTION
Crop Production Area
Factor
External Needs
(financial,material,
or technical)
Management-Related
Technology use
restraints
Education
Environmental plans
Products or Outputs
Economics/markets
Residuals
General Factors
Institutional
Climate/weather
Uncertain resource availability
Questionable resource/use efficiencies
Potentially inappropriate land use
Potentially declining water supplies
Unassured energy availability
Inadequate capital financing
Restricted pesticide use
Potential fertilizer use constraints
Unassured implementation of new
management systems
Impending requirements for state and
local environmental plans
Market instabilities
Irregular export markets
Composite environmental effects
Insufficient government coordination
Inadequate agricultural representation
Insufficient basic science research
Uncontrollable climate/weather
Source: Adapted from U.S., EPA, 1979.
9-26
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220-
PESTICIDES
^NITROGEN FERTILIZER
AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
.•POTASH FERTILIZER
PHOSPHATE FERTILIZER
-.ENERGY
1972-1974 1985
2010
Figure 9-1:
Energy and Fertilizer Requirements to Achieve
Moderate Growth Projections
Source: U.S., EPA, 1979, p. 27.
by the year 2010 (U.S., EPA, 1979).! irrigation may increase in
the Delta and Southeast regions, but decline in some portions of
the Southern Plains (Wittwer, 1980). If new conservation prac-
tices and new agricultural technologies are implemented in the
future, these possible trends would be modified. This section
discusses future irrigation, pesticide use, conservation tillage,
Iprojections were based on a recent EPA sponsored study con-
ducted by Development Planning Associates. The moderate growth
scenario assumed growth of U.S. population to 281 million by 2010
and that material, land, and technical requirements were not major
limitations, and that demand would expand in a pattern similar to
the recent past. For a more detailed description see U.S., EPA,
1979. The projection is used here to indicate a potential pattern
of development, rather than a forecast of the future, and should
be interpreted cautiously.
9-27
-------
best management practices, integrated pest management, and new
technologies.
1. Irrigation
The use of irrigation in the future will vary from state to
state. In some areas depleted water tables will force a reduc-
tion in ground water use. In the panhandles of Texas and Okla-
homa and a few eastern counties of New Mexico, irrigation peaked
in 1965. Declining ground water tables in the Ogallala aquifer
already have forced a reduction in use and rising energy prices
may further reduce pumping and withdrawals. In Texas, near the
southern end of the aquifer, farmers have already begun to change
from irrigated feed grains back to dry land farming. A recent
USDA. study concluded that irrigation in 32 counties in the Texas
plains would end by about 1995; the major land use consequence
would be a 70 percent decrease in grain sorghum output and a
return to wheat as the main dry farming crop (Young and Coomer,
1980). The decline of irrigation will result in drier soils and
likely worsen wind erosion in the area. At the same time, how-
ever, the change in crop species should lead to a decrease in the
amount of herbicides used in the area.
In contrast, in the eastern portion of the Sunbelt irrigation
may be the next major means of increasing crop productivity
(Wittwer, 1980). This is already taking place in Georgia and
South Carolina.
Increasing the efficiency of water use by crops is likely in
the future. Crops vary considerably in efficiency of water use.
Sorghum, for example, produces 1.72 kilogram (kg) of grain per
millimeter of water compared to 1.23 kg for wheat, 0.65 kg for
peanuts, and 0.24 kg for cotton (Wittwer, 1980). However, more
likely improvements in water use will probably come from an in-
crease in irrigation efficiency. Such activities as lining irri-
gation canals that channel water to farms, installing flow moni-
toring and regulating mechanisms that control the rate, amount
and timing of application, land grading to level field surfaces,
and the use of drip or trickle irrigation wherever economical
will increase the efficient use of water in the future (S&PP,
1982, Ch. 4).
2. Pesticides
The growth rate in the use of pesticides depends to a major
extent on crop production decisions made by individual farmers,
regulation policies, and market factors. For example, cotton
growers in the Delta may continue converting their fields to soy-
beans in response to market demand thereby decreasing the pounds
of insecticide applied to each acre. On the other hand, other
9-28
-------
farmers may choose to practice conservation measures such as low-
tillage that may increase the amount of herbicides and insecti-
cides that must be used.
Because insecticides are predominantly applied to the cotton
crop (except in the Southern Plains), growth in insecticide use
in the Sunbelt depends to a large extent on the levels of produc-
tion and conservation measures adopted by cotton growers. While
the Delta and Appalachian regions had fewer acres of cotton in
1981 than in 1976, the Southeast region quadrupled its cotton
acreage. In 1976 the Southeast had the highest rate of insecti-
cide application to cotton (22 pounds per acre). The trend of
increased cotton acreage since 1976 probably has been accompanied
by an increase in insecticide use.
3. Conservation Tillage
Reduced or conservation tillage involves substituting chemi-
cal herbicides for mechanical cultivation to control weeds. This
can vary between no-till in which a spray-plant-harvest system is
used and low-till which includes some cultivation. Conservation
tillage reduces erosion of croplands by 50 to 90 percent, reduces
soil compaction, and increases moisture content from the mulch-
ing effect. On the other hand, environmental impacts may result
from increased herbicide use and lower soil temperature in the
spring that may delay early germination.
Low-tillage has been most successfully used on corn, soy-
beans, sorghum, and other grains. It is not successful in areas
with poorly drained soils or in regions such as central and east-
ern Texas where persistent perennial weeds such as Johnson grass
and Burmuda grass are common. Such weeds are nearly impossible
to control successfully with herbicides.
The use of reduced tillage in the U.S. has spread from 14
percent of all harvested cropland in 1973 to 23 percent in 1979
(Crosson and Brubaker, 1981). In the South, the Appalachian and
Southeast regions make greater use of the method than do the Delta
or Southern Plains (Table 9-15). If present trends continue, 50
percent of U.S. cropland may be farmed using no-till or low-till
methods by 2010 (Conner, Travis, and Trudeau, 1980).
4. Management Practices
Best management practices refers to the application of cur-
rently known farming practices that minimize runoff, conserve
soil, and foster the more efficient use of chemicals and water.
The practices have been developed by states through their area-
wide waste water management programs in close conjunction with
Soil Conservation Service Districts. These practices include
9-29
-------
TABLE 9-15: LOW-TILL FARMING IN THE SOUTH BY REGION
(million of acres)
1978
1979
Region
Area
% Cropland
Harvested
Area
% Cropland
Harvested
Appalachian
Southeast
Delta
5.42
4.55
1.26
Southern Plains 2.24
U.S. 74.67
29.8
31.4
6.7
7.5
22.6
5.
5.
1.
1.
79.
83
09
36
98
11
30.7
33.5
7.0
6.1
23.1
Sources: Crosson and Brubaker, 1981, p. 84.
strip cropping which combines grass or fallow areas with culti-
vated crops; terracing or constructing grass waterways to utilize
surface runoff; growing winter cover crops to protect soil; and
timing farm operations to minimize exposure of soil. Expanded
use of best management practices may reduce soil loss and chemi-
cal pollution in the southern region.
Integrated pest management (IPM) programs are sponsored pri-
marily by the USDA to reduce losses from pests while also reduc-
ing dependence on environmentally harmful chemicals. IPM uses a
combination of biological, chemical, and physical techniques to
control pests that threaten crops. With IPM, field monitoring is
used to determine if, when, and where chemicals are needed. Bio-
logical controls include the use of natural enemies, resistant
plants, and sterile insects, while other controls involve crop
rotation, and the timing of planting and harvesting. The use of
insect hormones is an additional biological method that is ex-
pected to be used more extensively by 2010 (U.S., EPA, 1978).
If IPM were implemented by large numbers of farmers, future
pesticide use could be decreased significantly. For example, if
IPM were used on cotton in the Southeast and Delta, insecticide
use might be reduced by 35 to 50 percent (Bottrell, 1979). How-
ever, since herbicide use is increased in reduced tillage, her-
bicide use may not drop even with IPM.
9-30
-------
5. Future Technologies
Emerging technological breakthroughs could enhance future
agricultural productivity. Genetic engineering may produce
plants that are tolerant of salt water, acid soils, air pollu-
tion, or harsh climate and that can resist both drought and in-
sect attack. In addition, crops may be developed that are able
to self-degrade broad spectrum herbicides. At the present time
these herbicides kill crops along with weed pests. Genetic re-
search may also further improve the nutritional value of cereal
grains. One major breakthrough would be increasing the photo-
synthetic efficiency rate, which in most plants is less than one
percent.1 With this development, plant growth could be regu-
lated, plant anatomy could be improved, and crop yields could be
maximized far beyond their current limits (Wittwer, 1980).
Less than 50 percent of the nitrogen and less than 35 percent
of the phosphorus and potassium that are applied are actually
utilized by crops. The processes of nitrification^ and denitri-
fication3 cause millions of tons of fertilizer to be lost to the
environment each year in the South. Nitrification inhibitors are
already available; widespread use of inhibitors could signifi-
cantly reduce fertilizer use. Another technology that may reduce
the need for fertilizer applications is to augment biological
nitrogen fixation (Wittwer, 1980). Some rice paddies, for ex-
ample, already use microorganisms to provide the nitrogen re-
quirement.
Research in animal production to control infectious diseases,
develop genetically superior animals (e.g., who can survive on
low-quality diets), and encourage twinning in beef and dairy
cattle may impact the system of livestock production. Also
important are genetic improvements in producing higher yielding
and more nutritive forage.
The adoption time for new agricultural technologies has ap-
parently averaged 13 years and may take up to 35 years, so that
even if some of these developments were acheived they may not
^Some plant efficiencies are as high as 3 percent. Although
improvements in the efficiency of some crops have been made, a
major breakthough such as doubling efficiency, is apparently dif-
ficult to achieve.
^Nitrification is the process whereby ammonia is oxidized by
soil bacteria to form nitrates which may facilitate growth of some
plants, but also allows nutrients to be leached into streams and
lakes.
^Denitrification reduces nitrate to gaseous nitrogen which is
then lost to the atmosphere.
9-31
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have a widespread effect on farming practices until after the mid-
1990 's or later (Wittwer, 1980). Some experts believe the level
of agricultural research support from the public sector has not
been large enough recently to expect anything more than modest
productivity improvements (Ruttan, 1980).
D. Future Export Demand
Crop exports have caused a realignment in crop production and
expansion of cropland used in the South, particularly in the
Delta and Southern Plains states. Future export demands have been
based on projections of world population growth, agricultural
growth in developing nations, consumptive levels in importing na-
tions, and import and export policies. Table 9-16 reports the
production and export level of four crops for the years 1977 to
1979; a projection by the USDA for 1990 levels; and one for 2010
made by Resources For the Future (RFF). The USDA. projections as-
sume U.S population will grow by 3 percent annually, that export
growth will be more moderate than in the 1970's, and that real
Gross National Product (GNP) will grow 3 percent per year. The
RFF projection additionally assumes the U.S. will maintain a con-
stant share of the export market and that no major changes will be
made in import policies by the importing countries. These projec-
tions indicate that the three major export crops are expected to
increase in production and exports. The rate of growth in feed-
grain exports to the year 2010 is the largest with a 177 percent
increase. If these projected demands are to be met, agricultural
production will have to increase by three-fourths.
9.2.3 Environmental and Health Concerns
The runoff of rains or irrigation waters from agricultural
lands is the main contributor to agricultural pollution. The
runoff transports soil which becomes a pollutant--sediment--that
causes turbidity and deposits that can ruin fish spawning areas
and accumulate in rivers and lakes. In addition, this sediment
transports nutrients (from animal wastes and commercial fertili-
zers), salts, and pesticides as well as other suspended materials
such as heavy metals that pollute water systems. Animal wastes
are a major source of surface water contamination by BOD and nu-
trients. This section discusses the most important environmental
issues associated with agricultural production in the Sunbelt.
A. Soil Erosion
Soil erosion refers to the loss of soil by wind, rain, or
moving water. It is a serious environmental problem because it
threatens long-term productivity. If soil is blown or washed
away at a faster rate than new soil is naturally generated,
9-32
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TABLE 9-16: PRODUCTION AND EXPORT OF WHEAT, SOYBEANS,
FEEDGRAINS, AND COTTON
(millions of metric tons)
Crop
Wheat
Production
Exports
Soybeans3
Production
Exports
Feedgrains*3
Production
Exports
Cotton
Production
Exports
Average
1977/79
54
34
54
28
219
60
3
1
Projection
1990
2010
77
50
72
34
282
97
3
1
98
70
120
76
354
167
NA
NA
NA = Not available.
Source: Data compiled from Crosson and Brubaker, 1981.
a!990 projection is for beans only. The other figures, include
soybean meal and oil converted to the bean equivalent.
and sorghum for grain, plus oats and barley.
topsoil depth is reduced and subsoil becomes part of the plowed
soil profile, reducing the soil's organic matter, its nutrients,
aeration and water holding capacity, and other structural charac-
teristics that are beneficial to plant growth (Crosson and
Brubaker, 1981). Furthermore, displaced soil and attendant agri-
cultural chemicals then become pollutants of adjacent lands and
waterways (see Chapter 14).
Erosion is an insidious problem whose long-term cost is gen-
erally given less weight than more immediate production problems,
particularly on rental farmland. In the short term, soil produc-
tivity losses can be overcome by larger applications of fertil-
izer, but the true cost of allowing soils to erode may ultimately
9-33
-------
be paid in yield reductions and production cost increases in the
near future and total destruction of some lands in the long term.
As discussed in more detail in Chapter 12, eight of the 13
Sunbelt states have waterborne soil erosion rates greater than
the national average of 4.77 tons lost per acre per year.l- With
theexpected expansion of cropland, the current high erosion rates
in the Sunbelt may create serious erosion and sedimentation prob-
lems. Of course, using average erosion rates for a region or a
state obscures the fact that some lands are losing virtually no
soil at all while others, such as western Tennessee or the High
Plains of Texas, are experiencing extremely high soil loss.
Some farming practices minimize erosion. These include some
of the best management practices, such as intercropping, terrac-
ing, contour cropping, and winter cover cropping. Spring plowing,
which minimizes the length of time soil is left bare, also reduces
erosion. Probably the most significant practice in reducing ero-
sion is conservation tillage. As previously discussed, the use of
some of these conservation practices has been projected to in-
crease in the future. In the South, for example, 80 to 90 percent
of all cropland may be planted with winter crops by 2010 (U.S.,
EPA, 1978).
The potential effects of best management practices on produc-
tivity and erosion control could be large. However, changes in
erosion control practices do not occur as rapidly or extensively
as crop planting in response to crop prices. In fact, the USDA.
Soil Conservation Service reports that throughout the country
farmers are not managing highly erodible soils as well as farmers
did a generation ago (Rosenberg, Knutsen, and Harmon, 1980).
Much of the accumulated evidence suggests that adopting erosion
control methods is not cost-effective for the farmer. A team
studying eroding land in southern Iowa calculated "projected
near-term costs of erosion in terms of additional energy use,
additional fertilizer use, and reduction in yield," and found
that the costs of reducing erosion to a rate approaching that of
actual natural soil development was about three times the econom-
ic benefits of doing so (Rosenberg, Knutsen, and Harmon, 1980).
Thus, when a farmer extends his cultivation onto land previously
considered marginal or too erodible for cropping, he is not
likely to expend the full effort needed to maintain that topsoil
resource.
How widespread or effective soil conservation practices will
be in the future is unknown. Most were shown to be effective in
protecting the soil base 50 years ago, yet most farmers still do
not fully employ them. In fact, no more than 25 percent of U.S.
discussed in Chapter 12, average cropland water erosion
in the Sunbelt states varies from 2 to 14 tons per acre per year
9-34
-------
farmlands are currently operated under accepted conservation
practices (Wittwer, 1980).
3. Nutrients
In "heavily farmed areas, pollution to surface water ranks
next to large municipal discharges in terms of nutrients addi-
tions (U.S., EPA, 1980). This form of pollution together with
pesticides enters streams via sediment that erodes from topsoil.
Together, these substances act to degrade fish and marine life
habitat (see Chapter 12). They cause such adverse effects as
changes in water temperature, increased oxygen demand and de-
creased light penetration (see Chapter 14).
Both commercial fertilizer and animal wastes are sources of
nutrients. The effects of manure disposal from feedlots in the
Sunbelt is largely concentrated in the major livestock producing
areas. Nitrogen and potassium from commercial fertilizer can
reach surface waters by runoff; nitrogen also percolates through
the soil to ground water supplies.
The projected increases in fertilizer use are high for most
of the Sunbelt. Conservation measures may affect the amount ac-
tually delivered to surface water. The concentrations of nitro-
gen, ammonia, and phosphorus are actually higher in runoff from
low-tilled fields than from conventionally-tilled fields (Crosson
and Brubaker, 1981). The amount of runoff is usually smaller
from low-till fields, so more water stays on the field, which may
leach to ground water. Thus, the threat of nitrate pollution may
actually be greater on no-tilled cropland.
Problems are likely to be significant in the Southeast where
increases in irrigation, crop production, and fertilizer use are
expected in Georgia and northwest Florida. If crop residues are
used for ethanol production (see Chapter 6) in the future, sedi-
mentation and water pollution will probably increase due to com-
pensating heavier applications of nutrients and consequent higher
rates of erosion.
C. Pesticides
Pesticide residues are found in soil, water, and air as well
as in human food (see Chapter 12). They can enter the environ-
ment during application, by runoff, or percolation. Approximate-
ly 5 percent of the pesticides applied eventually are transported
off the land.
As indicated earlier, herbicide applications have increased
dramatically. Low-till agriculture increases the use of herbi-
cides because some of the herbicide gets tied up in the residue
9-35
-------
on the soil and the additional soil moisture enhances weed ger-
mination and growth. However, with reduced erosion and runoff,
fewer herbicide residues may find their way into the water systems
(Table 9-17). Chemicals applied stay on the soil longer and
expose wildlife to crop residues.
Neither the nation nor the South has historic experience with
the large applications of herbicides currently used. In the case
of many insecticides, less may be used in the future, at least in
some regions like the Delta, so fewer environmental problems may
result. For example, cotton production is shifting from the Delta
to Texas where the need for insecticide is less. Currently, the
Delta and Southeast apply the most insecticide (69 percent of it
to cotton), so the environmental impacts are geographically con-
centrated. More extensive use of plant varieties with insect
resistance may lower pesticide usage by the 1990's. The shift
away from organochlorines probably will continue. Whether this
will mean increased environmental problems from the more toxic
substitutes is unknown (see Chapter 12).
D. Irrigation
Salinity is one of the most pervasive environmental problems
associated with irrigation. Salts can accumulate on soils and
increase in surface waters as they receive the irrigation runoff.
In the Sunbelt irrigation is associated with salt accumulations
in Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma (see Chapter 14).
Reduction of streamflow and mining of ground water can also
be significant problems. Ground water depletion has occurred in
many states, but is of major significance in the Southern Plains
(see Chapter 13).
Irrigation may also intensify erosion problems. When not used
on level cropland, flood and furrow systems can increase erosion;
if used on sandy soil and hilly terrain the central pivot irriga-
tion systems may increase erosion; and the large sprinkler systems
may cut wheel tracks that can lead to gully erosion (Crosson and
Brubaker, 1981).
But irrigation can have positive effects as well. In arid
regions, it sustains a better vegetative cover that reduces ero-
sion and runoff, it enhances productivity by reducing crop fail-
ure and it often encourages land leveling which reduces erosion.
The use of more efficient irrigation systems could reduce with-
drawals as would the reuse of runoff. Also, local wastewaters
might be treated for return to surface waters. But such measures
may be unlikely on a widespread basis unless increased water costs
make them more economically acceptable.
9-36
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TABLE 9-17: WATER, SOIL, AND HERBICIDE LEAVING CONVENTIOtsfAL
AND NO-TILL CORN FIELDS
Amounts Leaving Cropland
Total Cyanazine Soil Cyanazine
Applied Water (tons per (Ibs per
(Ibs per acre) (inches) acre) acre)
Tillage
Conventional
Plowed
No-Till
Cornstalk
Residue
No-Till
Crown Vetch
4.0
6.0
6.0
3.83
0.38
0.13
14.37
0.37
0.03
0.21
0.03
0.01
Source: Conner, Travis, and Trudeau, 1980.
E. Issues of Land Use
Competition for U.S. cropland exists within the agricultural
sector and among agricultural and other sectors. There is con-
cern that land available for cropland conversion is too rapidly
being converted to irreversible nonagricultural uses, such as
housing, highways, and reservoirs (USDA and CEQ, 1981). As dis-
cussed earlier in section 9.2.2, the South lost cropland from the
early 1900's to the 1970's, with much of this land abandoned to
forest. Over 13 million acres of forest and cropland were con-
verted to other uses between 1967 and 1977 in the Sunbelt (see
Chapter 12). The nation may depend more heavily on the South to
provide new fertile cropland for export grains as well as ample
forests for lumber products at the same time that increased popu-
lation is creating pressures for housing, recreation areas, and
other nonagricultural uses. Although the South contains most of
the potential farmland, conflicts are likely to occur as com-
peting land use demands intensify.
As discussed in Chapter 12, environmental effects of emerging
land use demands in the South include loss of habitat for many
wildlife species, the farming of additional acreages of marginal
land with possible soil degradation, and decreases in flood pro-
tection. A shift toward farming additional marginal lands may
result in higher erosion rates and heavier fertilizer use.
9-37
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State level efforts may protect and preserve agricultural
lands by offering tax incentives, or by zoning and districting.
However, at present only 20 million acres of cropland in the U.S.
are protected under comprehensive state or local programs (USDA
and CEQ, 1981, p. 16). The National Agricultural Lands Study
found that the South is doing less than other regions to protect
agricultural lands.
9.3 FOREST LAND AND TIMBER PRODUCTS
The Sunbelt contains about 220 million acres of forest land
(Frey, 1979). Except for Kentucky (48 percent), states in Region
4 are more than 50 percent forestland. Only Oklahoma, Texas, and
New Mexico in Region 6 have less than 25 percent forestland, but
even in parts of these states forestry is an important enterprise.
Much of the forest area is used for timber production, but
large portions remain as unmanaged woodlots, providing benefits to
wildlife and fish, recreational use, livestock grazing, and miner-
al production. In 1976 the South! produced 31 percent of the na-
tion's softwood lumber, 37 percent of the softwood plywood, and 76
percent of the softwood pulpwood (Williston, 1979). It generally
is expected that the timber harvest within the region will expand
in the coming decades, as demand for products continues to expand
and as Pacific Coast old growth forests are harvested and second
growth may not yet be adequately available. This will add to
current pressures on both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems
caused by forest management and harvest practices within large
portions of the southern region.
The following pages discuss current activities and expected
developments in the timber industry, and some of the associated
environmental impacts. The forest industry harvests wood for
production of pulp and paper, as well as boards and plywood. The
former are discussed further in Chapter 10, but it should be re-
membered that growing the wood fiber used in the pulp and paper
industry involves the same land use and ecological issues brought
out in this discussion.
9.3.1 Current Status
In 1970 the U.S. used 39 billion board feet of lumber and 18
billion square feet of plywood, as well as large amounts of par-
ticle or insulation board, and forest products for pulp and paper,
By 2020, consumption is expected to increase to 54 billion board
feet of lumber and 46 billion square feet of plywood, with the
•'•The Sunbelt minus New Mexico and including Virginia.
9-38
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forests of the Sunbelt supplying a greater percentage of the total
national consumption in the future (USDA, Forest Service, 1977).
New housing is the largest single consumer of lumber and plywood
and future forestry activity will no doubt be affected by housing
demand and technology.
Forestry provides large industry earnings in localized areas
of the South. The values appear small when seen as percentages
of total state industrial earnings (1 to 3 percent) but in 1978,
the Texas, North Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia lumber products
industries earned 313, 274, 243, and 237 million (1972) dollars
respectively (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980).
In 1970 the South had 201 million acres of commercial forest
land, that is, forest land producing or capable of producing
annually in excess of 20 cubic feet of wood per acre. This com-
mercial timber land covers very large portions of Region 4, and
of Arkansas and Louisiana (Figure 9-2), from 67 percent of the
State of Georgia to 46 percent of Kentucky (USDA, Forest Service,
1977). Although Texas and Oklahoma have very low percentages of
forest, they have some large acreages in commercial status.1
A. Forest Types
The study area contains a wide variety of hardwood and soft-
wood forest types (see Chapter 12 for a description of forest
types). The largest part of the area is in southern pine forest
(61.9 million acres) and oak-hickory forest (59.4 million acres),
according to the U.S. Forest Service (1980) (Table 9-18). The
southern pine forest was the source of 25 percent of the total
U.S. timber harvest but only 14 percent of the nation's commer-
cial timber lands in 1970 (USDA, Forest Service, 1977). Loblolly
pine comprises nearly half the inventory and is the keystone of
the southern pine forest products industry (USDA, Forest Service,
1980). Except in Florida, where slash pine prevails, loblolly is
the dominant pine species in each of the Atlantic and Gulf coast-
al states.
A mixed oak-pine forest is also important in the South, fre-
quently in stands left after cutting of larger pine in pine-
hardwood forests. Through hardwood removal, some of these oak-
pine areas have been converted to pine timberlands. The oak-pine
forest is not as productive as the pine ecosystems for timber,
but provides valuable habitat for numerous wildlife species
(USDA, Forest Service, 1980).
l-Commercial forest land refers not to ownership but to produc-
tivity, and within the region almost all forested acreage is in
that category. Much of the following discussion refers to com-
mercial forest land.
9-39
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Figure 9-2: Commercial Timberland as a Percentage of Land Area
Source: USDA, Forest Service, 1977, p. 18.
The oak-hickory hardwood forests make up one-third of the
total forest land area in the South. In some localities this
forest type produces choice industrial hardwoods—examples are
the bluffs that flank the eastern edge of the lower Mississippi
Valley and the valleys of the southern Appalachians. This forest
type occurs on millions of acres, especially on the Coastal
Plain, that are regarded by industry as better for growing pine
than hardwood (USDA, Forest Service, 1980).
Swamp and bottomland forests (oak-gum-cypress and elm-ash-
cottonwood) have long been the mainstay of the southern hardwood
forest products industry. In recent years, however, changing
land-use patterns have reduced them. Extensive acreages of prime
bottomland hardwoods have been cleared for agriculture on the
alluvial soils of the Mississippi Valley.
New Mexico does not fit into the southern forest pattern, hav-
ing relatively little forest area and none of the southeastern
forest types; its timber land is mainly Douglas fir and ponderosa
pine.
9-40
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TABLE 9-18:
FOREST LAND AREA BY ECOSYSTEM AND SECTION,
(thousand acres)
REGION, AND STATE, 1977
Ecosystem
Region/State
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georg 1 a
Kentucky
Mississippi
North
Carol Ina
South
Carol Ina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico3
Ok 1 ahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
All Whfte-
Eco Red- Jack
systems Pine
21,361
17,039
25,256 30
12,160 38
16,715
20,043 147
12,249 8
13,160 99
137,983 322
18,281
14,558
8,513
23,279
64,631
202,614 322
Fir- Long leaf
Spruce Slash
1,485
6,370
5,310
1,051
14 532
1,049
16
30 15,797
1,000
259
1,259
30. 17,056
Loblolly-
Short leaf
6,388
1,064
6,928
955
4,271
6,100
4,335
1,299
31 ,340
3,685
4,046
860
4,540
13,131
44,471
Oak-
Pine
5,024
1,406
4,121
1,068
3,473
2,495
2,070
1,641
21,298
3,042
2,204
698
2,576
8,520
29,818
Oak-
Hickory
5,839
999
4,738
7,634
4,284
7,440
2,387
9,252
42,573
8,461
1,669
2,207
4,455
16,792
59,365
Oak -Gum
Cypress
2,419
4,752
2,914
101
3,258
2,179
1,732
547
17,902
2,767
4,802
846
1,942
10,357
28,259
Elm-Ash-
Cotton-
wood
95
75
554
949
221
424
276
150
2,744
274
508
124
210
1,116
3,860
Maple-
Beech- Non-
B i rch stocked
109
2,370
658
1,367 46
154
220 488
389
120 32
1,707 4,246
81
325
169
165
740
1,707 4,986
Source: USDA, Forest Service, 1980.
aNew Mexico has different forest ecosystems types: total 18,059; douglas fir 1,279;
ponderosa pine 4,231; fir spruce 741; other softwood 56; western hardwood 440; nonstocked 205; chaparral 427; pinyon juniper
10,679.
-------
B. Forest Ownership
Almost 90 percent of the commercial forest resources of the
Sunbelt are privately owned (Table 9-19) (USDA, Forest Service,
1977). Some privately owned forests are not managed but most
national, state, county, and city forests are managed to provide
a supply of harvestable timber. The vast majority of commercial
timber lands is owned by farmers (34 percent) and miscellaneous
private parties (39 percent) (USDA, Forest Service, 1977).
The South has a slightly larger relative area owned by the
forest industry (18 percent) than the U.S. (14 percent). Impor-
tantly, the growth in forest industry ownership in the U.S.
TABLE 9-19:
OWNERSHIP OF COMMERCIAL FOREST IN 1977
(thousand acres)
State
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North
Carolina
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S.
Federal
800
1,616
1,417
819
1,202
1,319
862
919
8,954
2,718
694
2,867
348
737
7,363
16,317
99,655
State
156
466
94
76
95
320
206
324
1,736
237,
299
171
91
49
846
2,582
23,642
County &
City
53
26
34
.6
377
78
27
22
619
20
10
15
7
51
670
7,216
Indian
7
14
46
67
573
115
3
690
757
6,089
Private
20,324
13,215
23,268
11,007
15,204
17,799
11,081
11,555
123,452
15,233
13,525
1,927
3,755
11,717
46,156
169,608
351,124
Source: USDA, Forest Service, 1977.
9-42
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increased by nearly 8 million acres, much of it in the South
(USDA, Forest Service, 1977). By 1970, the southern forest pro-
ducts industries owned more than 35 million acres. About 9 mil-
lion acres in the region were also leased by forest industries at
that time.
C. Existing Demand and Harvest
In the last three decades, consumption of most timber pro-
ducts in the U.S. has risen in response to increases in popula-
tion, economic activity, and income (Hair, 1980). By 1978, total
softwood lumber use was 25 percent above the 1950 level while
pulpwood consumption increased nearly fourfold in the same peri-
od. At the same time, hardwood plywood use grew 300 percent and
softwood plywood use jumped about 700 percent. The combined vol-
ume of lumber, veneer and plywood, pulpwood, and other industrial
timber products rose from nearly 10 billion cubic feet in 1950 to
about 14 billion in 1978 (Hair, 1980).
On the whole, southern forests are very productive, pro-
viding, in 1970, half the nation's net growth in softwoods and
more than one-third the total net growth in hardwoods (Table
9-20). In theory, the South could support an increased timber
harvest, as harvest is still less than net growth. However, the
harvest exceeds growth in some areas such as the north coastal
plain of North Carolina and in southeast Georgia (Williston,
1979) apparently due to lack of reforestation (Weyerhaeuser,
1982). Other areas currently undergoing high cutting rates are
southwest Alabama, south Mississippi, east Texas, and southwest
Arkansas.
9.3.2 Future Developments
A. Future Demands for Timber
Demands for most timber products are likely to continue to
grow rapidly (Table 9-21). For all timber products combined, the
demand for roundwood^ is estimated to reach 22.7 billion cubic
feet in 2000 (Hair, 1980). Much of the increase is projected for
pulp products; pulpwood constituted about one-third of the demand
for roundwood in 1976 and is expected to comprise up to 45 per-
cent of roundwood demand in 2000 (see Chapter 10).
iRoundwood refers to timber that is to be delivered to a mill
in relatively whole form as logs. It is contrasted to delivery
of wood fiber or tree chips. However, roundwood can be subse-
quently processed to chips, pulp or other nonsolid wood products.
9-43
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TABLE 9-20:
NET ANNUAL GROWTH AND REMOVAL OF GROWING
STOCK, 1976
(billion cubic feet)
Source
Net
Growth
Removals
Ratio of Growth
to Removals
North
All species
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Rocky Mountains
and Great Plains
All species
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Pacific Coast
All species
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Southa
All species
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Total U.S.
All species
Softwoods
Hardwoods
5.3
1.6
3.8
1.7
1.6
0.1
3.5
2.9
0.5
11.1
6.2
4.9
21.7
12.3
9.4
2.5
0.7
1.8
0.9
0.8
<.05
4.2
4.0
0.1
6.7
4.5
2.2
14.2
10.0
4.2
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
5.8
0.8
0.7
4.3
1.7
1.4
2.2
1.5
1.2
2.2
Source: Calculated from USDA, Forest Service, 1980, p. 376.
aThe South corresponds to the Sunbelt states, plus Virginia and
Puerto Rico, and less New Mexico.
9-44
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TABLE 9-21: HISTORIC AND PROJECTED U.S. DEMAND FOR LUMBER
AND PLYWOOD
Source
Softwoods
Hardwoods
1970
Lumber
(million board feet)
1976
1990
2000
2010
32,100 36,200 47,830 48,590 52,430
7,300 6,500 10,120 11,290 12,880
Total
39,500 42,700 57,950 59,880 65,316
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Total
Plywood
(million square feet)
1970
1976
1990
2000
14,038 17,135 23,670
3,784 3,581 5,330
2010
24,280 26,590
5,770 6,250
17,822 20,716 29,000 30,050 32,840
Source: Compiled from USDA, Forest Service 1980, pp. 325-26.
Projections made in 1973, using U.S. Forest Service "moderate"
projections.
Increases in roundwood consumption in the 1960's and 1970's
came entirely from softwood species. Now however, both softwoods
and hardwoods are projected to show large increases in demand.
This demand is likely to increase harvesting from domestic for-
ests, since imports of forest products have been relatively small.
The situation may be aggravated by the trend during the past
decade of conversion of forest areas to urban and cropland use.
Production pressures in the South may further be intensified
by substantial production declines on the Pacific Coast. Because
industry lands physically are unable to maintain current rates of
cutting, Pacific softwood sawtimber^- supplies are projected to
iSawtimber is timber delivered to a mill that meets minimum
dimensions useful for lumber, typically 8 to 12 feet long, and
at least 7 to 11 inches in diameter.
9-45
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drop from 25.2 to 20.5 billion board feet (1976-2010), with most
of the compensating increase expected to come from farm and other
private, nonindustrial forest land in the South. The South's
share of total U.S. softwood supply is expected to rise from 42
percent in 1970 to about 50 percent by the year 2000 (Table 9-22).
The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
projects tremendous increases in lumber products industry earn-
ings (excludes pulp and paper earnings) by 2010, (Table 9-23).
Eastern Texas, for example, has a large acreage of pine forest
which is beginning to be cut at a high rate and earnings should
more than triple by 2010.
B. Future Supplies
The projected demand for timber products estimated by the For-
est Service shows increases much larger than growth in timber sup-
plies, with softwoods showing the largest shortfall between supply
and demand. Probable increases in prices of logs and timber pro-
ducts may cause significant adverse effects on primary timber pro-
cessing industries, timber industry employment, timber inven-
tories, consumers of wood products, and the environment (Hair,
1980). As prices rise, harvest may increase initially, followed
by slackening demand and increasing supplies as prices continue to
rise. The largest impacts of any increased harvest will be felt
in the South. Price rises also may cause shifts to competitive
materials such as steel and plastics (USDA, Forest Service, 1977).
C. Change in Forests and Practices
There is a concern in industry that without proper management
logged stands regenerate in hardwoods rather than pines. Thus,
there has been an average loss of approximately 500,000 acres of
pine forest each year, as harvested stands grow up again in
oak-pine and oak-hickory woods (Williston, 1979). Mississippi
lost about 275,000 acres of pine between 1967 and 1977.
The industry considers hardwoods inferior because fibers are
too short for paper, it has a tendency to warp, and most of them
grow slowly, are shorter than pines, and much of their volume is
in small stems (Sternitzke, 1978). Unless areas of hardwoods are
cut, the South may fall short of its expected timber production.
However, such discussions about "full productivity" ignore the
value of forest land for uses other than timber production.
Industry-owned land has apparently been cut at rates faster
than it can now regenerate, causing the timber industry to expand
activities onto large areas of leased land. The softwood timber
cut on timber industry land, for example, apparently exceeds
growth by 21 percent (U.S., CEQ, 1979). As timber production in
9-46
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TABLE 9-22: PROJECTED ROUNDWOOD AND SAWTIMBER SUPPLIES
IN THE SOUTH AND THE U.S.
1970
Roundwood supplies
(million cubic feet)
1990
2000
2010
South3
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Total
3,531
1,833
4,887
2,732
5,392
3,466
5,774
4,117
5,364
7,619
8,858
9,891
U.S.
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Total
8,701 10,369 11,058 11,607
3,391 4,886 6,027 7,065
12,092 15,255 17,085 18,672
1970
Sawtimber supplies
(million board feet)
1990
2000
2010
South*
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Total
U.S.
Softwoods
Hardwoods
Total
14,225 19,404 21,867 24,068
6,225 8,798 11,442 13,804
20,450 28,202 33,309 37,874
46,097 48,115 50,454 52,517
12,414 14,713 18,460 21,889
58,511 62,828 68,914
74,406
Source: Compiled from USDA, Forest Service, 1980, pp. 382-85.
alncludes Sunbelt states plus Virginia and Puerto Rico, less New
Mexico.
9-47
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TABLE 9-23:
PROJECTED GROWTH IN LUMBER PRODUCTS INDUSTRY
EARNINGS3
(millions of 1972 dollars)
Region/State
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt Total
U.S. Total
1969
159
102
170
62
155
199
92
117
1,056
143
111
16
15
158
443
1,499
4,864
1978
243
179
237
90
207
274
125
154
1,509
184
145
25
40
313
707
2,216
7,375
1990
391
287
370
129
343
350
188
205
2,262
269
203
42
67
548
1,130
3,392
10,975
2000
533
396
496
164
462
395
244
239
2,930
340
256
58
96
778
1,527
4,458
14, 149
2010
705
528
649
207
605
457
313
284
3,748
427
321
76
130
1,053
2,007
5,755
18,048
Percent
Change
1978-2010
190
196
174
129
192
67
150
84
148
132
122
202
227
236
148
160
145
Source: Data calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
aExcludes furniture earnings.
the study area increases, greater attention may be directed to
the specific interest of private leases. For example, the desires
of many owners for aesthetically pleasing woods and for diversity
of forest types and conditions may cause a return to partial cut-
ting and maintaining a wide range of tree sizes (all-aged manage-
ment as opposed to clear cutting and even-aged management) on some
small holdings (Williston, 1979).
The forestry industry is likely to be affected by a range of
developments including changed housing markets, increased demand,
9-48
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reduced forest acreage, and new forest leasing and ownership pat-
terns. A range of technological developments also may affect
forestry economics and impacts. These include:
• New silviculture methods and stocking practices,
including genetically engineered tree seedlings with
increases in growth potential under a wider range of
environmental conditions. These stocks may have the
effect of reducing pest susceptibility, and utilizing
low fertility soils;
• Reduced runoff and enhanced control of road building
and maintenance programs;
• New log extraction methods, soil moisture control and
soil fertilizing methods; and
• New pesticides that reduce application requirements.
Herbicides and insecticides are now applied only during
specific periods or events, and reduced applications are
possible.
9.3.3 Environmental Impacts of Timber Industry Activities
By the end of the century the South is expected to account for
approximately half the annual softwood roundwood supply and 45
percent of the hardwood supply. Forest management and harvest
activities have several impacts which will be exacerbated by the
intensification of production and harvest. Impacts are related to
road construticon, pest control, growth enhancement, site prepara-
tion, and methods of harvest (U.S., EPA, 1978).
One of the most significant impacts is erosion that comes from
site preparation, road construction, and road maintenance in log-
ging areas. Particularly when poorly designed, road construction
can increase soil erosion and consequent stream sedimentation.
Erosion rates at harvest can be substantially greater than for
cropland, for example, depending on the kind of harvest and regen-
eration practiced (Conner, Travis, and Trudeau, 1980; see Chapter
12). In addition, mechanized forestry operations can compact the
soil which may lead to reduced infiltration and increased runoff.
Recovery from compaction can take three to ten years or longer
when soil does not undergo freezing and thawing (as is the case in
parts of the South) (U.S., EPA, 1980, p. 396). Compaction typi-
cally can be corrected by mechanical scarification (Weyerhaeuser,
1982).
Pesticides and fertilizers generally are applied to forest
lands at infrequent intervals. In a 30 to 80 year growth period,
each forest area may receive two or three applications. Herbicide
treatments or mechanical means may be used to prevent the
9-49
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regeneration of hardwoods after pines have been harvested. If not
done with care, aerial herbicide applications can contaminate for-
est streams and, if not carefully timed, fertilization can result
in nutrient runoff. Use of pesticides in forest management will
continue to be an important policy issue, especially in the future
as privately owned woodlands in the study area are expected to
assume a relatively larger proportion of regional and national
timber harvests.
Timber harvest methods have important environmental impacts.
Clear-cutting is expected to increase in the South along with
shorter rotations (periods between harvests). This could have
adverse effects for soil erosion and stream siltation. Clear-
cutting also disrupts wildlife habitat and food supplies, al-
though after a period of revegetation, low brush often provides a
better food supply for animals such as deer. Changing the com-
position of forests also affects wildlife species. Harvests of
pine forests without subsequent management has resulted in con-
version to hardwoods and mixed forest types. Many areas of hard-
woods or mixed hardwood-pine forest have been converted to pine
forest, and industry is interested in further conversions. Con-
version of mixed stands to pine plantations may have minimal ad-
verse environmental effects (U.S., EPA, 1977), but is attractive
mainly from an industry production viewpoint.
New technologies and better harvest management could lessen
the environmental impacts of silviculture. For example, land
with fragile soil or steep terrain could be withdrawn from road
construction. Biological pest control, if available in the near
future, could help reduce both mechanical and chemical treatments
of forest insects and disease.
An additional concern is the global increase in atmospheric
carbon dioxide (CC>2) which has been related to the cutting of
large areas of forest throughout the world as well as to the burn-
ing of fossil fuels. Due to the relatively small timber harvest
in the South, only a slight impact on this problem is lively in
the coming decades. If better success at stand regeneration is
achieved, these forests could help reduce increases in global CO2-
9.4 SUMMARY
Forestry and agriculture are locally important economic forces
accounting for about 5 to 6 percent of industrial earnings in much
of the Sunbelt, but have economic multiplier effects in other in-
dustries, such as the pulp and paper industry, and food pro-
cessing. States in the South vary greatly in the importance of
specific products or crops. For example, cattle are the largest
agricultural commodity (as cash receipts) in the Southern Plain
states (New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas), soybeans are the most
9-50
-------
important in the Delta states (Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missis-
sippi) and the Southeastern states have their largest cash
receipts from oranges (Florida), broiler chickens (Alabama and
Georgia), tobacco (Kentucky and Tennessee), and soybeans (South
Carolina).
Cotton, however, is a key agricultural commodity for under-
standing trends in the Sunbelt. Tt ranks among the top three
cash crops in Texas, Oklahoma, and Mississippi. But cotton pro-
duction has moved from the Southeastern states to the Delta and
Southern Plains states. In the plains states, cotton varieties do
not require as much pesticide as in the Southeast. However, cot-
ton acreage requires large applications of insecticide in the
Delta and Southeast, and this has offset the reduction achieved in
Texas and Oklahoma. Reduction in insecticides use has occurred on
tobacco and peanut crops regionwide.
Soybeans are another key crop. Soybean production has in-
creased dramatically in the past 20 years, so that by 1981 more
cropland was planted to soybeans in the South than any other
crop. Soybeans do not require much fertilizer and have minimized
nutrient pollution to streams from fertilizer use, but about 25
percent of the soybean crop requires insecticide, especially in
the Southeast.
Herbicide applications to southern crops have increased from
about 19 million to 98 million pounds from 1964 to 1976. Most of
the increase in herbicides has been to corn and soybeans. Delta
states of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi apply the most
herbicides, and the Southern Plains states and New Mexico apply
the least.
Most agricultural sectors have increased significantly in
output during the past decade, and are projected to continue in
the future. Feed grains for export represent a major projected
agricultural crop increase. Softwood production from loblolly
pines is expected to continue to be the major forest output.
Future environmental concerns include land conversion con-
flicts involving forests, croplands and other uses, and a range of
land and agricultural management issues involving erosion protec-
tion, and herbicide and insecticide application. Insecticide
application may be stabilizing or diminishing, but herbicide
application may emerge as a major environmental control issue as
herbicide use continues to expand.
9-51
-------
REFERENCES
Andrilenas, Paul A. 1974. Farmers' Use of Pesticides in 1971 —
Quantities, Agricultural Economic Report No. 252. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Andrilenas, Paul A. 1975. Farmers' Use of Pesticides in 1971—
Extent of Crop Use, Agricultural Economic Report No. 268.
Washington,D.C.:Government Printing Office.
Batie, Sandra S., and Robert G. Healy. 1980. The Future of
American Agriculture as a Strategic Resource. Washington,
D.C.: The Conservation Foundation.
Bottrell, D. R. 1979. Integrated Pest Management. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Conner, William G., R. K. Travis, and P. N. Trudeau. 1980.
Selected Trends in American Agriculture; A Future
Perspective. McLean, Va.: The MITRE Corporation.
Crosson, Pierre, and Sterling Brubaker. 1981. Resource and
Environmental Impacts of Trends in Agriculture in the United
States. Athens, Ga.: U.S./ Environmental Protection Agency.
Eichers, Theodore, R., et al. 1968. Quantities of Pesticides
Used by Farmers in 1964, Agricultural Economic Report No. 131.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Eichers, Theodore R. , et al. 1978. Farmers' Use of Pesticides
in 1976, Agricultural Economic Report No. 418. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Fornari, Harry D. 1979. "The Big Change: Cotton to Soybeans."
Agricultural History 53:245-54.
Frey, H. Thomas. 1979. Major Uses of Land in the United
States—1974, Agricultural Economic Report No. 440.
Washington,D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Gibson, Robert. 1981. "Wet Georgia Irrigating Faster Than Any
State." Rural Electrification, August, pp. 15-16.
Hair, Dwight. 1980. "Timber Situation in the United States—
1952-2030." Journal of Forestry 78:683-86.
9-52
-------
Hidlebaugh, Allen. 1980. Agricultural Lands Data Sheet, Interim
Report No. 2, National Agricultural Lands Study. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., Department of Agriculture.
Lee, Linda K. 1978. A Perspective on Cropland Availability,
Agricultural Economic Report No. 406. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
McGill, Ernest, Allen Hidlebaugh, and Joseph Yovino. 1981.
Available Federal Data on Agricultural Land Use, Technical
Paper II, National Agricultural Lands Study. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Soil Conservation
Service.
Rosenberg, P., R. Knutsen, and L. Harmon. 1980. Journal of Soil
and Water Conservation 351 (May/June):131.
Ruttan, Vernon W. 1980. "Agricultural Research and the Future
of American Agriculture." In The Future of American Agri-
culture as a Strategic Resource, edited by Sandra S. Batie
and Robert G. Healy. Washington, D.C.: The Conservation
Foundation.
Schenarts, Thomas. 1981. Agricultural Land Use Shifts and
Cropland Potential, Technical Paper V, National Agricultural
Lands Study. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of
Agriculture.
Schertz, Lyle P., et al. 1979. Another Revolution in U.S.
Farming, Agricultural Economic Report No. 441. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Science and Public Policy Program (S&PP), University of Oklahoma.
1982 (in press). Water and Western Energy; Impacts, Issues,
and Choices. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press.
Sternitzke, Herbert S. 1978. "Coastal Plain Hardwood Problem."
Journal of Forestry 76:152-53.
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1979. Environ-
mental Quality, Tenth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Agriculture (USDA). 1980. Fact Book of U.S.
Agri c u11 u r e, Miscellaneous Publication No. 1063. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Agriculture (USDA), Forest Service. 1977.
The Nation's Renewable Resources—An Assessment, 1975, Forest
Research Report No. 21. Washington, D.C.: USDA.
9-53
-------
U.S., Department of Agriculture (USDA), Forest Service. 1980.
An Assessment of the Forest and Range Land Situation in the
United States. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office.
U.S., Department of Agriculture (USDA), Soil Conservation Service
(SCS). 1978. 1977 National Resource Inventory. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Agriculture (USDA), Statistical Reporting
Service, Crop Reporting Board. 1981. Acreage. Washington,
D.C.: USDA.
U.S., Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Council on Environ-
mental Quality (CED). 1980. National Agricultural Lands
Study, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
1980. BEA Industry Earnings Data. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1981. 1978
Census of Agriculture, Vol. 1: Summary and State Data, Part
51. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1977. Environ-
mental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silviculture,
Vol. 1: Trend Identification and Evaluation. Athens, Ga.:
U.S., EPA, Environmental Research Laboratory.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1978. Environ-
mental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvicul-
ture, Vol. 2, Environmental Effects of Trends. Athens, Ga.:
U.S., EPA, Environmental Research Laboratory.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1979. Environ-
mental Implications of Trends in Agriculture and Silvicul-
ture, Vol. 3: Regional Crop Production Trends. Athens, Ga.:
U.S., EPA, Environmental Research Laboratory.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1980. Environ-
mental and Economic Impact of Agricultural Land Use Conver-
sion; An Evaluation Methodology. Athens, Ga.: U.S., EPA,
Environmental Research Laboratory.
Von Rumker, R., et al. 1975. Production, Distribution, Use and
Environmental Impact Potential of Selected Pesticides, for
the EPA Office of Pesticide Programs and the Council on
Environmental Quality. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environ-
mental Protection Agency.
9-54
-------
Weyerhaeuser Company, Staff. January 20, 1982, Personal
communication.
Williston, Hamlin L. 1979. "The South's Pine Reforestation
Problem." Journal of Forestry 77:234-36.
Wittwer, S. H. 1980. "Future Trends in Agriculture Technology
and Management," pp. 64-107 in Long Range Environmental
Lookout, Proceedings of a Workshop, November 14-16, 1979.
Washington, D.C.: National Academy of Sciences.
Young, Kenneth B., and Jerry M. Coomer. 1980. Effects of
Natural Gas Price Increases on Texas High Plains Irrigation,
1976-2025, Agricultural Economic Report No. 448. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Economics, Statistics
and Cooperatives Service.
9-55
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TABLE 9-A1:
INSECTICIDE USE ON MAJOR FIELD CROPS, HAY, PASTURE, AND RANGELAND,
BY AGRICULTURAL REGIONa
(1,000 pounds)
Crop
Corn
Cotton
Wheat
Sorghum
Soybeans
Tobacco
1 Peanuts
UI
<* Rice
Other grains
Alfalfa, hay,
and forage
Pasture and
range
Tota 1 s
1964
1,053
4,999
(c)
(c)
369
3,042
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
2,400
11,863
Sources: Data compiled
Economic Report No. 131
Pesticides In 1976, Agr
1974. Farmers'
Printing Office
Use of
.
Appalachian
1971 1976
375
3,610 4,
2
28
928
2,511 2,
1,071 1,
10
170
—
8,705 9,
from Eichers
. Washington
[cultural Eco
Pesticides in
940
092
165
—
874
259
133
—
85
1
549
1964
194
23,774
(c)
(c)
1,348
2,273
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
4,504
32,093
Southeast
1971
42
Delta
1976 1964
974 (b)
27,259 20,581 23,530
(b)
406
2,655
1,467
3,835
3
—
31
35,698 30
, Theodore R., et al. 1968.
, D.C.: Government Printing
nomlc Report No. 418. Wash!
1971— Quantities, Agricultu
(c)
100 (c)
6,179 2,729
900
1,049 (c)
(c)
31 (c)
310 (c)
1 629
,125 26,888
Quantities of
1971
37
20,323
87
339
1,872
—
91
36
24
34
31,846
1976
22
32,653
— -
487
173
—
82
__
236
57
33,710
Pesticides Used by
Office; Eichers, Theodore R., et
ngton, D.C.: Government Printing
ral Economic Report No. 252. Wash
1964
17
20,797
(c)
(c)
(b)
—
(c)
(c)
(c)
(c)
760
21,574
Farmers
al. 19;
CTf ice;
i ngton,
Southern Plains
1971
54
10,320
1,355
2,927
22
--
1,084
726
404
88
93
17,073
in 1964, Agr
'H. Farmers'
1976
1,246
2,461
4,485
1,366
151
—
257
426
1,428
1,073
50
12,943
icu Itural
Use of
Andrllenas, Paul A.
D.C.: Government
aAppalachian: Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia; Southeast: Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina,
Florida; Delta: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi; Southern Plains: Texas, Oklahoma.
''Less than 500 pounds.
cThe 1964 report combines wheat, sorghum, rice, peanuts, mixed grains, hay, alfalfa, pasture and other miscellaneous field crops.
The totals are given under "Pasture and range."
-------
TABLE 9-A2:
HERBICIDE USE ON MAJOR FIELD CROPS, HAY, PASTURE, AND RANGELAND,
BY AGRICULTURAL REGION*
(1,000 pounds)
Appalachian
Crop
Corn
Cotton
Wheat
Sorghum
Soybeans
Tobacco
Peanuts
^0 Rice
1
>j Other grains
Alfalfa, hay
and forage
Pasture and
Range
Tota 1 s
1964
1,937
479
21
26
225
1,699C
18d
246e
4,651
1971
6,166
1,039
15
310
3,042
*
1,431
••«
__
27
167
12,197
1976
19,086
750
84
1,502
8,211
821
999
__
131
10
207
31,801
1964
502
586
(b)
29
15
1,332=
18d
388e
2,870
Southeast
1971
2,105
3,045
18
125
1,233
*
2,669
7
35
161
9,398
1976
8,126
1,039
(b)
53
6,371
311
2,073
—
13
54
11
18,051
1964
192
2,465
(b)
--
372
(b)c
1,431d
342e
4,802
Delta
1971
474
9,649
—
287
9,011
*
5
4,450
——
66
248
24,190
Southern Plains
1976
387
11,562
55
420
15,241
— -
6,163
— —
9
84
33,921
1964
22
985
43
406
—
29C
2,913d
1,733®
6,131
1971
127
3,952
144
3,486
99
__
266
2,646
30
42
4,223
15,015
1976
1,664
2,761
983
4,097
11
__
285
2,289
77
285
1,952
14,404
*Amount not disaggregatable.
Sources: Data compiled from Eichers, Theodore R., et al. 1968. Quantities of Pesticides Used by Farmers In 1964, Agricultural
Economic Report No. 131. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office; Eichers, Theodore R., et al.1978.Farmers' Use of
Pesticides In 1976, Agricultural Economic Report No. 418. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office; Andrllenas, Paul A.
1974. Farmers' Use of Pesticides In 1971—Quantities, Agricultural Economic Report No. 252. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office.
Appalachian: Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, West Virglnla, Virginia; Southeast: Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina,
Florida; Delta: Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi; Southern Plains: Texas, Oklahoma.
''Less than 10,000 pounds. clncludes tobacco, peanuts, sugar cane, grass and hay seed, and other less important field crop;
Other grains includes rice. Pasture, range, alfalfa, and hay.
-------
CHAPTER 10
THE PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY
HIGHLIGHTS
Status and Trends
1. During the past decade the pulp and paper industry has
invested in pollution control equipment which resulted
in reductions in discharges to air and water. Signifi-
cant improvements in fisheries and water quality have
accompanied these investments.
2. The pulp and paper industry, an important component of
many local economies in the southern region, can be
expected to grow significantly, both by construction of
new mills and by added capacity to existing plants.
This growth may be accompanied by economic benefits,
but also by increased water consumption and by possible
added discharges, depending on levels of environmental
control.
• Geographic Areas
3. The industry in the South is largely concentrated in
Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana. Other states with
major pulp mill activity are Florida, the Carolinas,
Mississippi, Texas, and Arkansas. New growth in plant
capacity is especially important in Region 4 as well as
Texas and Louisiana.
4. Although both the Atlantic and Gulf coastal zones have
been the location of many mills, new mills may be
constructed mostly inland.
5. Most mills have improved pollution control performance,
and well documented improvements in water quality have
been made in several instances, including the Pearl River
in Louisiana, Perdido Bay in Florida and Alabama, and
Escambia Bay in Florida.
10-i
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• Key Problems and Issues
6. Water, air quality, and hazardous waste regulations are
under review. Further environmental controls, such as
increasing standards from 85 percent BOD removal to 90
percent removal are uncertain. More stringent standards
would require significant new capital expenditures if
compliance with any new regulation is to be achieved.
7. Local nuisance from emissions of odorous compounds to the
atmosphere and discharges of oxygen-demanding substances
to receiving streams is likely to continue, although at
levels lower than the previous decade.
10-ii
-------
CHAPTER 10
THE PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY
10.1 INTRODUCTION
As indicated in Chapter 4, compared with other major manufac-
turing industries, the size of the pulp and paper industry in the
Sunbelt ranks near the midrange in terms of earnings to labor.
However, the industry has been predominantly concentrated in the
South for the past 30 years, and is most important in Georgia,
Louisiana, Alabama, and Florida. At locations of pulp and paper
mills, entire communities are often economically dependent upon
this one industry. Due to its use of large quantities of water
and the large quantities of wastewater discharge, the mills can
have substantial local environmental impact, particularly in
terms of oxygen demanding substances discharged to streams and
rivers.
This chapter examines the current status, regional trends,
and environmental impacts of the pulp and paper industry. The
introduction describes the components of the industry and pro-
vides a brief overview of pulp and paper making processes. This
is followed by an examination of the current status of the indus-
try and growth trends. The third section discusses environmen-
tal concerns, including water quantity, water quality, air emis-
sions, and toxic effluents.
10.2 PULP AND PAPERMAKING PROCESS1
Pulp and paper mills vary in the range of processes and acti-
vities included at the mill site. Integrated mills are mills
different types of classification of the pulp and paper
industry are used in this chapter: Standard Industrial Classifi-
cation (SIC) codes and the subcategories used by the Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA). The SIC system classifies the compon-
ents of the pulp and paper industry by product type. Three gen-
eral categories emerge: pulp (2611), paper (2621, 2631, and
2661) and converted paper (264 and 265). As indicated, vertical
integration among these categories is common for industrial fa-
cilities in these classifications.
10-1
-------
that produce pulp and paper and paperboard products at the same
site. Waste paper is the raw material in secondary fiber mills.
Finally, nonintegrated mills purchase wood pulp from pulp mills
and produce paper or paperboard products.
Wood pulp is produced in four main steps: (1) wood prepara-
tion (debarking and chipping), (2) cooking, (3) screening and
washing, and (4) bleaching (if desired). In the first step,
whole logs are prepared by a sequence of washing, debarking, and
chipping operations. The processes vary depending on the form
of raw materials used (Federal Register, 1981). Often entire
mills are run from the residue of logs that were manufactured
into lumber and other wood products.
The second step of pulping reduces wood chips or wastepaper
into fiber. This "cooking" or pulping process involves combina-
tions of mechanical and/or chemical processes. Pulp is often
prepared mechanically by pulverizing wood or softened chips into
fiber bunches, which are then matted and dried into pulp sheets.
Chemicals typically are not used in this mechanical "groundwood"
process. The paper product, however, is brittle, nondurable, and
fades in direct sunlight. Groundwood pulp generally is used in
combination with other pulp types for products such as newsprint
and corrugated paper (Allan et al., 1972).
Chemical processes include sulfate, semichemical, and sul-
fite. As shown in Table 10-1, sulfate (kraft) pulping is the
most common in the South. In this process, wood chips are mixed
with an alkaline liquor solution and cooked with steam under high
temperatures and pressures. Kraft mills burn the spent cooking
solutions after the pulp has been extracted to recover chemicals
for reuse and to generate heat for the process. The semichemi-
cal process mixes both chemical and mechanical pulping methods.
The sulfite process involves soaking wood chips in a sulfurous
acid solution and cooking under high temperature and pressure.
Most environmental impacts of the pulp and paper industry are
the result of the pulping process (Allan et al., 1972).
The pulp is then screened and washed at the third step, with
screened materials repulped or discarded. If white pulp is de-
sired, the pulp is bleached in a fourth step through the use of
chemicals which include chlorine, chlorine dioxide, and hydrogen
peroxide with various washing steps and extraction steps using
sodium hydroxide between the bleaching steps. Frequently, the
bleaching process includes three to six stages depending upon
what whiteness and fiber properties are desired.
In secondary fibers mills, wastepaper is the primary raw
material. Currently, wastepaper meets 25 percent of demand for
raw materials for paper and paperboard production (U.S., Dept.
of Commerce, Ind. & Trade Admin., 1980). Not much pulp, less
10-2
-------
TABLE 10-1: SOUTHERN61 PULPING CAPACITY BY PROCESS TYPE
(1978 tpd)
Process Capacity Percent
Sulfate 77,502 81
Groundwood 11,468 12
Semi-chemical 6,202 6
Soda and Sulfite 650 1
Total 95,822 100
tpd = tons per day
Source: Computed from Bertelson, 1979.
aStudy area excluding Kentucky and New Mexico.
than 5 percent, is made from wastepaper, however. Incentives for
wastepaper recycling into pulp may increase.1
In secondary fibers mills, wastepaper is shredded and cooked.
Some paper products require additional deinking. Ink can be re-
moved by detergents and other chemicals. After screening and
washing, the processed stock is then stored (Federal Register,
1981).
In all types of mills (integrated, secondary fibers, and non-
integrated), the pulp is normally resuspended in a water slurry
by hydraulic pulping, which eliminates steam and chemical re-
quirements, and a sheet is produced. The sheet can be coated
with other materials to achieve specific properties. These coat-
ing materials include starch, clay, titanium dioxide, and urea
formaldehyde resins. The stock is then mechanically and chemi-
cally processed into paper or board (Federal Register, 1981).
1-The National Energy Act, for example, provides tax credits
for recycling equipment purchases and the Resource Conservation
and Recovery Act encourages wastepaper recycling and use (U.S.,
Dept. of Commerce, Ind. & Trade Admin., 1980).
10-3
-------
10.3 CURRENT STATUS
In comparison with 19 other two-digit SIC industries during
1977, the pulp and paper industry ranked 13th in terms of employ-
ment with 625.5 thousand workers, and 9th in terms of value of
shipments, at $51.7 billion. These figures represent 3 percent
and 4 percent of the total number of workers and value of ship-
ments in manufacturing, respectively (U.S., Dept. of Commerce,
Ind. & Trade Admin., 1980). The U.S. pulp and paper industry
produces a large proportion of the world's pulp and paper; about
43 percent of total production of paper products and pulp in 1978
(OECD, 1980). A narrowing balance of trade deficit for pulp and
paper has occurred in recent years. The value of pulp and paper
imports in 1979 was 4.4 billion dollars while exports were 2.9
billion dollars (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Ind. & Trade Admin.,
1980).
The foreign sector is especially important for pulp. In
1979, for example, imports of pulp represented 59 percent of U.S.
pulp consumption, while pulp exports accounted for 48 percent of
product exports (U.S., Dept of Commerce, Ind. & Trade Admin.,
1980). This trade can be explained by locational factors; Canada
supplies nearly all of the U.S. pulp and paper imports, with most
of the pulp going to mills in the upper Midwest and Northeast.
Exports, however, largely originate in the South and Northwest.
Southern mills produced 55 percent of the U.S. pulp exports in
1970, while the Northwest produced 43 percent. Much of this was
sold to Europe or Japan (Guthrie, 1972; Forest Products Review,
1980). Thus, the pattern of international pulp trade can affect
the level of activity in the southern region.
On a regional scale a plentiful supply of inexpensive fiber
has been a major factor in determining the location of the pulp
and paper industry in the United States. When straw comprised
40 percent of paper content during the nineteenth century, the
industry was concentrated in the Northeast straw producing areas.
When wood supplanted straw as the primary feedstock at the turn
of the century, paper production shifted to the Midwest (Guthrie,
1972). Many of the best timber stands in the Midwest were cut
by 1919, causing a shift of the forest products industry to bhe
South and Northwest. Consequently, the South has become the
nation's leading pulp producing area since 1939 (Guthrie, 1972).
A major indicator of pulp and paper industrial activity is
wood pulp production and in 1978 the U.S. produced 79.8 million
standard cords of pulpwood. As indicated in Table 10-2 the
southern states produced about 48 million cords of this total,
the vast majority used by local mills. The pulpwood comes from
roundwood (logs) as well as wood residues (see Chapter 9).
Nationwide the supply of woodpulp from these wood sources has
about doubled from 1960 to 1979 (see Table 10-3). The South
10-4
-------
TABLE 10-2:
PULPWOOD PRODUCTION IN THE SOUTH, 1978
(thousands of cords)
State
Production
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Totala
7,354
3,948
3,671
8,908
4,306
5,530
4,639
614
4,307
688
4,033
47,997
Source: Bertelson, 1979
aTotal may not agree due to rounding factor.
TABLE 10-3: WOODPULP SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION
(Millions of short tons)
Item
Production total
Sulfate
Groundwood
Imports
Exports
Consumption in paper
and board
Total supply3
1960
25.3
14.6
3.3
2.4
1.1
25.7
26.6
1965
34.0
21.5
3.6
3.1
1.4
34.0
35.7
1970
43.5
29.5
4.4
3.5
3.1
43.2
44.0
1979
52.7
38.0
4.4
4.3
2.9
51.7
54.1
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980a.
aProduction plus imports, less exports. Production includes
other, not shown separately.
10-5
-------
(including Maryland and Virginia) accounted for 64 percent of the
nation's pulp production in 1970, 38 percent of its paper, and 59
percent of its paperboard (Guthrie, 1972). As shown in Table
10-4, the South accounted for 68 percent of U.S. pulp capacity in
1977. Most of the Sunbelt's mill capacity is located in Region 4,
particularly in Georgia, Alabama, and Florida. Within Region 6,
Louisiana contains the greatest mill capacity. Together these
four states account for 56 percent of the Sunbelt's capacity.
The distribution of pulp mills in the South is shown in
Figure 10-1. The industry has located many plants along the
coastline, taking advantage of inexpensive water transportation
for pulpwood, abundant water supplies for the pulping process,
and access to foreign markets. New plant construction however,
TABLE 10-4: SOUTHERN PULP MILL CAPACITY, 1977
Region/State
Region 4
Georgia
Alabama
Florida
South Carolina
North Carolina
Mississippi
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Louisiana
Texas
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Total
Total U.S. Capacity
Capacity
(tpd)
Percent of
U.S. Capacity3
15,234
12,880
10,390
7,907
6,810
6,470
4,015
63,706
13,470
7,440
6,050
2,970
29,930
137,700
46
22
Source: Bellamy, 1978; U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Ind. & Trade
Admin., 1980
aPercent of U.S. pulp production included in SIC Code 2611.
10-6
-------
o
I
-J
• 10OO - 1499
*150OOR MORE
O UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Figure 10-1: Southern Pulp Mills in 1977
Source: Bellamy, 1978
-------
may occur inland for three reasons: first, desirable coastal
sites have already been taken; second, coastal sites are re-
stricted by Coastal Zone Management Planning (see Chapter 12);
and third, the southern hardwoods—whose use in pulping has
increased greatly in recent years—are more concentrated inland
(Guthrie, 1972). New pulp mill construction inland has generally
substantiated this pattern. However, some existing coastal mills
may continue to add capacity in the future utilizing the wood
supply of the South.
Paper and board production in the South also is a large pro-
portion of national output. As shown in Table 10-5, southern
paper and board output represents at least 42 percent of national
production. Not surprisingly, the ranking of states according to
production levels is nearly identical to that for southern pulp
capacity (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1979).
TABLE 10-5: PAPER AND BOARD PRODUCTION, 1978
Output Percent of
Region/State (million tpd) U.S. Production
Region 4a
Georgia 13,671
Alabama 11,424
Florida 7,123
North Carolina 6,465
South Carolina 6,411
Tennessee 4,849
Kentucky NR
Mississippi NR
Total 49,943 28
Region 6
Louisiana 10,438
Texas 6,383
Arkansas 5,534
Oklahoma 2,794
Total 25,149 14
U.S. Production 176,164
NR = Not reported to avoid disclosures for individual plants
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1979.
alncludes Maryland
10-8
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10.4 FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
This section examines the potential for growth of the pulp
and paper industry in the Sunbelt. Major factors affecting
growth, including demand, energy costs, investment, and research
are discussed first. Projections of future output are then con-
sidered.
10.4.1 Supply and Demand for Paper and Board
As shown in Table 10-6, the U.S. consumed 36.2 million tons
of paper in 1978. The largest single category of consumption
was newsprint at 11.2 million tons. Paperboard consumption was
27.9 million tons. Although variations in demand for paper and
board are considerable in the short-run of one to two years, the
overall growth in consumption for paper and board has been rela-
tively consistent--about 43 percent between 1965 and 1978.
While overall demand for paper and paperboard products is
likely to rise, demand for specific paper products may rise or
fall. Newsprint capacity, for example, has been projected to
increase, reducing the country's reliance on imports. The market
share of nondeinked secondary fiber mill production is expected
to decline, however. Despite incentives for recycling, rising
costs have placed these mills at a competitive disadvantage with
TABLE 10-6: CONSUMPTION OF PAPER AND BOARD
Consumption
1978 Percent Change
Product Category (million tons) 1965 - 1978
Total paper
Newsprint
Coated printing
Book paper and other
printing, writing
Packaging and converting
Tissue and sanitary
Paperboard
Total paper and board
Construction paper and board
36.2
11.2
4.6
10.6
5.8
4.2
27.9
70.4
6.2
44
33
64
65
21
45
42
43
51
Sources: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980a.
10-9
-------
the larger virgin fiber mills (Federal Register, 1981). Long
terra changes in the availability of pulpwood, such as a shortage
of roundwood (timber) or residue would reduce or change the com-
petitive position of these process types.
10.4.2 Investment
Paper industry capital outlays have been projected to in-
crease by 40 percent to 4 to 5 billion dollars, more than triple
the average growth rate for all industries (U.S., Dept. of Com-
merce, Ind. & Trade Admin., 1980). Some of the proposed spending
involved construction of offices and research facilities, but a
high proportion represented investment in new capacity in the pri-
mary products sector. Investment tax incentives and growing im-
ports may weigh heavily in the upward revisions in investment
planning (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Ind. & Trade Admin., 1980).
Capacity in the pulp, paper, and board segments, which nor-
mally take around two-thirds of the industry's total investment
were scheduled to increase by 3 percent in 1980 (U.S., Dept. of
Commerce, Ind. & Trade Admin., 1980). This rate compares with
an average of 2 percent annually in the 1970's and 4 percent in
earlier post-World War II years.
Capital spending for environmental controls in the pulp and
paper industry peaked during the mid 70's and has declined some-
what from these earlier levels. In the mid 1970's for example,
nearly 30 percent of capital spending was allocated to pollution
control. Capital spending on pollution control was about 296
million dollars, or about 7 percent of total capital spending in
1979 (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Ind. & Trade Admin., 1980). About
15 percent of capital outlays in pulp mills is expected to be
spent on pollution control for new facilities and for expansion
and modifications in the next few years (U.S., Dept. of Commerce,
Ind. & Trade Admin., 1980).
The magnitude of capital spending on pollution control in the
pulp and paper industry is presented in Figure 10-2 (U.S., Dept.
of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980b). Capital spending has been
roughly evenly divided between water, on the one hand, and air
and solid waste on the other.
The EPA expects some plant closures even without the addition
of more pollution controls. These closures of marginal and older
mills will likely be due to changes in product demand and rising
costs. Production lost by these closures will be compensated by
increased capacity utilization and modernization of existing
mills. Because of the cost and availability of land and the
resources involved in locating new mills, the EPA projects that
most industry expansion will occur at existing plants (Federal
Register, 1981).
10-10
-------
600-
co 400
i_
2
"o
•o
«*-
o
(0
c
o
5 200-
Air
Water
Solid
197319741975197619771978
Figure 10-2: Capital Expenditures for Pollution Abatement,
1973-1978.
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980.
10-11
-------
10.4.3 Energy Requirements
Pulp and paper mills are highly energy intensive. According
to Industrial Outlook 1980, energy costs to the paper and pulp
industry represent 6 percent of the value of product shipments.
Only two industries (stone, clay and glass, and primary metals)
are more energy intensive according to this measure. But this
comparison only includes purchased energy; it does not include
energy generated from byproducts such as wood residue, bark, and
process liquids.
The paper and board mills in the South meet a larger propor-
tion of their energy needs by consuming mill by-products than do
mills nationwide (American Pulpwood Association, 1979). Mill by-
products contributed an average of 55 percent of the energy re-
quirements for paper and board mills in the South, as compared
with an average 45 percent nationwide. The use of such biomass
energy sources in paper and board mills is projected to increase
by 70 percent from 1979 to 1984. Thus, it appears that the
availability and cost of fossil fuels may be less a factor in
determining future output in the industry than in the past.
10.4.4 Research and Development
The paper industry ranks comparatively low in its research
and development (R&D) expenditures, although the industry bene-
fits directly from its machinery and raw materials suppliers'
R&D efforts. R&D focuses on improving new pulp technology.
Spending remains at 1.5 percent of sales or 1 to 2 percent of
operating and capital investment costs (U.S., Dept. of Commerce,
Ind. & Trade Admin., 1980).
Recent R&D activities on improvements in pulping may make the
processes more competitive through energy savings. Substantial
attention has also been directed toward further adoption of
sulfur-free oxygen pulping and bleaching and low-sulfur pulping
technology which may have environmental benefits in reduced sul-
fur emissions. Through heat recovery technology, it has become
practical to use the internally generated heat to heat boiler
feed water, building space and the paper dryer sections. All
these applications reduce externally purchased energy. These
patterns of modest research effort may indicate that although
improvements in efficiency and pollution control may occur, no
major discoveries are expected in the future that would result
in changes in industry location or overall level of activity.
10.4.5 Projections
Projections by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) indi-
cate substantial growth in earnings of pulp and paper industry
10-12
-------
by 2010 for the southern region.1 Table 10-7 shows that earnings
are projected to nearly triple in Region 4 and quadruple in
Region 6. The BEA projections predict Region 6 growing faster
than some projections made by the EPA (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a).
In BEA projections and those conducted by EPA, pulp and paper
appears to be much more important in Region 4 than in Region 6.
10.5 ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS
10.5.1 Water Quantity
The pulp and paper industry withdraws and consumes large quan-
tities of water.2 Water is used in wood preparation, pulping,
bleaching, and papermaking. It is used as a medium of transport,
a cleaning agent, and as a solvent and mixer.3 in 1975, for ex-
ample, 8.9 billion gallons per day (bgd) were withdrawn by the
industry, making pulp and paper the third largest among manufac-
turing water users (U.S., WRC, 1978) (see Chapter 13).^
As shown in Table 10-8, approximately one-fourth of 1975
water withdrawals and consumption in the paper industry occurred
in the South Atlantic-Gulf water resource region (an area approx-
imately equivalent to Region 4). Total 1975 withdrawals and con-
sumption by paper manufacturing in Regions 4 and 6 were approxi-
mately 3,454 bgd and 379 bgd, respectively (U.S., WRC, 1978).
Projections by the Water Resources Council indicate that the paper
industry will become the largest water user among manufacturing
industries by 2000, in terms of both withdrawals and comsumption
(U.S., WRC, 1978).
projections should be interpreted cautiously as extrap-
olations of past growth in the pulp and paper industry may be
affected by competition with new products, imports and other eco-
nomic uncertainties .
"withdrawn" is that obtained from a source by a pipe
or diversion. Water "consumed" is a part of that withdrawn
which is then lost or used such as through evaporation or incor-
poration in a product and not returned to its source.
withdrawals and discharges are very nearly equal in
the pulp industries. The majority of the consumption comes from
providing the pulpwood raw materials which is roughly 50 percent
water.
^Chemicals and primary metals withdrew 19.4 and 18.9 bgd in
1975.
10-13
-------
TABLE 10-7: PULP AND PAPER EARNINGS, 1978-2010
(millions of 1972 dollars)
Region/State 1978 2010
a
Region 4
Georgia
Alabama
North Carolina
Florida
Tennessee
South Carolina
Mississippi
Kentucky
Total
339
274
252
203
• 194
174
90
77
1,603
921
708
667
417
617
510
205
280
4,325
Region 6
Texas 249 922
Louisiana 215 598
Arkansas 158 573
Oklahoma 26 341
New Mexico 1 2
Total 649 2,436
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980.
aNote shift in ranking of Tennessee, South Carolina, Florida,
Kentucky, and Mississippi from 1978.
An individual pulp and paper mill withdraws in the range of
30 to 300 million gallons of water per day, largely depending on
size, process type and the wastewater control methods (Allan et
al., 1972). The average of 24 mills surveyed in 1971 withdrew
TTO million gallons daily and the large pulp mills withdrew 230
to 300 million gallons of water. In the past about 30,000 gal-
lons of water were needed per ton of pulp produced, but new mills
use as low as 3,000 to 5,000 gallons per ton (Weyerhaeuser, 1982).
Bleach mills are still higher than other new mills, requiring
about 20,000 to 25,000 gallons of water per ton. As indicated in
Table 10-8, although withdrawal is expected to diminish through
improved plant efficiency, the large plants are expected to con-
sume more water. On a local basis, this use may constitute a sig-
nificant proportion of the flow of streams adjacent to the mills.
10-14
-------
TABLE 10-8:
FRESHWATER WITHDRAWALS AND CONSUMPTION
(million gallons per day)
Withdrawal
River Basin Region
1975
1985 2000
Consumption
1975 1985 2000
South Atlantic-Gulf
Ohio
Tennessee
Lower Mississippi
Arkansas-White-Red
Texas-Gulf
Rio Grande
Lower Colorado
Total U.S.
(conterminous)
South Atlantic-Gulf
Total U.S.
(conterminous)
2,111 1,974 1,875
224 151 133
381 268 246
403
517
200
245
0
15
125
200
0
18
381
110
218
0
26
262
23
41
46
30
38
0
3
614
46
85
119
50
79
0
8
1,492
101
196
304
86
174
0
22
8,314 5,909 5,298 1,034 1,983 4,194
Saline water use
464
539
8
Source: U.S., WRC, 1978, vol. 2, pt. Ill, p. 48.
10.5.2 Water Quality
Regulations controlling wastewater effluents are based on the
requirements of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA)
Amendments of 1972 and the Clean Water Act (CWA) of 1977. The
FWPCA Amendment requirements included industrial control of ef-
fluents by use of the "best practicable control technology cur-
rently available" in 1977 and the "best available technology
economically achievable" in 1983. Also applicable to the pulp
and paper industry are New Source Performance Standards and pre-
treatment standards for discharges into publicly owned treatment
works.
The EPA issued regulations concerning all of these standards
in 1974 (39 FR 18742) and 1977 (42 FR 1398). However, the 1983
"best available technology economically acheivable" requirements
were suspended, and a new category called "best conventional
technology" was recently proposed and subsequently challenged in
court. The court has ruled that EPA did not follow proper
10-15
-------
procedures in establishing the proposed "best conventional tech-
nology" regulations and must revise them.
Examples of changes proposed by EPA include withdrawal of
nationwide regulations for the control of color of effluents and
to allow states to control color on a case-by-case basis. In
addition, EPA has proposed "best available technology economi-
cally achievable" to reduce zinc discharge and require the sub-
stitution of other agents that control slime growth on process
equipment for the toxic pentachlorophenol and trichlorophenol
now used. New regulations that largely address toxic effluents
were issued in January 1981 (46 FR 1439).
Effluent limitations parameters have been issued regarding
biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), suspended solids, and pH for all
pulp and paper subcategories. Zinc is the only toxic pollutant
currently under regulatory controls as shown in Table 10-9, al-
though proposed regulations would include control of chloroform,
trichlorophenol, and pentachlorophenol. Color and settlable sol-
ids are controlled in few of the pulp mill process types (U.S.,
EPA, Off. of Water and Waste Mgmt., 1980).
Over the near term significant concerns exist in the industry
in meeting the national standards requiring 93 percent BOD re-
moval by 1984. This is a 5 percent improvement over the current
88 percent removal requirement (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of
Census, 1980b). Industry has suggested that the incremental im-
provement may not be justified by the costs incurred (U.S., Dept.
of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980b).
Although pulp and paper mills discharge a wide range of chem-
icals as indicated above, major concerns are the volumes of oxy-
gen demanding substances and suspended solids. Oxygen demanding
substances are especially important because they can result in
lower oxygen concentration in streams, making them less suitable
for fish. These chemicals and suspended solids also increase
bacterial growth, reduce water clarity, and discolor water, poten-
tially making streams unsuitable for municipal or recreational
uses.
Pulp and paper has been the largest industrial source of BOD,
generating about 20 percent (1.7 million tons) of total gross
BOD generation in the U.S. in 1975 (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a).
About half of this was generated by the larger and more common
kraft mills. As shown in Table 10-10, historic data on both
gross generation and net discharges of BOD vary according to the
type of pulping process. The historic data cited above indicate
a wide range in final discharge, for example, from 13 to 65
pounds of BOD per ton of pulp produced. Importantly, signifi-
cant improvements in reducing this level of discharge have been
achieved in the past decade as indicated in the lower discharge
values from recent monitoring data (Table 10-11). However, even
10-16
-------
TABLE 10-9: PROPOSED PULP AND PAPER MILL EFFLUENT GUIDELINES
Conventional
Pollutants a
Toxic Nonconventional
Settlable Pollutant Pollutant
Process Type Solids Zinc Color
Integrated Segment
Dissolving kraft - - *
Market bleached kraft - *
BCT bleached kraftb - *
Alkaline-finec - - *
Unbleached kraft - - x
Semichemical - - x
Unbleached kraft
and semichemical - - x
Dissolving sulfite pulpc - - -
Papergrade sulfite - -
Groundwood-thermo-
mechanical - x -
Groundwood-CMN papers - x -
Groundwood-fine papers - x -
Secondary Fibers Segment
Deink - - -
Tissue from wastepaper - -
Paperboard from
wastepaper - -
Wastepaper-molded
products - - -
Builders' paper and
roofing felt x -
x Regulations were proposed and promulgated for this pollutant or pollutant
parameter.
* Regulations were proposed for this pollutant or pollutant parameter.
- no proposed regulation
Source: U.S., EPA, Off. of Water and Waste Mgmt., 1980.
aFive day biochemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids and pH are regu-
lated for all categories, including the nonintegrated industry segment (not
shown).
^BCT bleached kraft: paperboard, coarse and tissue bleached kraft.
clncludes fine bleached kraft and soda subcategories. The "best practicable
control technology currently available" five day BOD effluent limitation for
acetate grade production in the dissolving sulfite pulp subcategory was
remanded to EPA.
10-17
-------
TABLE 10-10: PULP MILL EFFLUENT^
M
o
1
1 — 1
00
Type of Mill
Kraft pulp
-bleached
-unbleached
Groundwood pulp
Semichemical
pulp
Sulfite pulp
Unt:
BOD
(lb)
80
50
22
110
600
reated Effluent
Suspended
Solids
(lb)
140
50
25
50
62
Water
(1000
gal)
45
22
10
14
48
Aft
BOD
(lb)
47
30
13
65
354
er Treatment
Suspended
Solids
(lb)
43
16
8
16
19
Solid
Residue
(lb)
97
34
17
34
43
Source: Hunt and Franklin, 1973.
aFor one ton of product at average treatment levels in 1971,
-------
TABLE 10-11: AVERAGE ANNUAL PULP AND PAPER DISCHARGE LEVELS
(Ibs/tons of pulp)
Type of Mill
(Number of mills
monitored)
BOD
Range Average
Kraft pulp
-bleached (9)
(market bleached)
-unbleached (3)
(dissolving kraft)
Roundwood pulp (2)
Semichemical pulp (10)
4-12
8-38
2-10
4-10
8.2
19.0
6.0
6.0
Suspended Solids
Range Average
5-33
6-28
4-14
3-17
13.6
15.0
9.0
10.0
Source: U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980b, pp. 388-420,
within process types, a wide range of effluent levels occurs among
individual mills, typically about a range of 3 to 5 fold among
plants for the process types. These data have been used to sug-
gest that the lower value in the range is the "best practicable
control technology currently achievable" (U.S., EPA, Off. of
Planning & Mgmt., 1980) and that many plants could achieve this
lower level, but do not. Thus, although highly signficant reduc-
tions have been achieved for most pulp and paper mills, some
plants have much lower effluent levels than others.
Some projections made by the EPA indicate large increases of
gross BOD generation in the pulp and paper industry may occur
between 1975 and 2000. In the High Growth Scenario projected by
EPA's Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) model,1
models the economic and environmental effects of eco-
nomic and population growth. In the High Growth Scenario, Gross
National Product (GNP) grows by 3.5 percent per year, while popu-
lation grows by 0.8 percent per year. In the Low Growth Scenar-
io, GNP grows at an annual rate of 2.6 percent, while population
grows at 0.6 percent per year (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a). Because
of limitation in economic and technical assumptions, SEAS pro-
jections should be interpreted cautiously, and they are intended
here to indicate a potential range of projections and their
possible implications.
10-19
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industry output increases by 4 percent per year, in constant dol-
lars. This level of output results in an increase of gross BOD
generation (but not necessarily discharge) from 1.7 million tons
in 1975 to 3.4 million tons in 2000. Gross BOD generation in the
Low Growth Scenario, in which industry output grows by 3 percent
per year, would increase by one million tons.
Although SEAS projections indicate large increases in gross
BOD generation by the pulp and paper industry, net discharges are
projected to drop considerably due to assumed improvements in
wastewater treatment. In 1975, although half of BOD generation
was removed before discharge, nearly three-quarters of a million
tons of BOD were released to the environment. If the CWA goals
are achieved, net discharges could decrease to as low as 250
thousand tons by 2000 according to the SEAS assumptions.
The pulp and paper industry accounted for about 4 percent
(2,700 thousand tons) gross generation of suspended solids by
point sources in 1975 (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a). Net discharges
by the industry represented 19 percent (1,100 thousand tons) of
all point source net discharges, however. According to SEAS pro-
jections, gross generation is expected to increase to 5,700
thousand tons in the high growth scenario by 2000, but net dis-
charges would decrease to less than 20 percent of 1975 levels.
This level of decrease, however, assumes achievement of CWA goals.
The enhancement in wastewater treatment for pulp and paper
mills has resulted in significant improvement in streams adja-
cent to many of these facilities. For example, for years Bogue
Lusa Creek, a tributary of the Pearl River in Louisiana was heav-
ily polluted by a paper mill's chemical and wood fiber discharges.
Extensive fish kills occurred, sport fish disappeared, and the
Pearl River's water quality was seriously degraded for some 25 to
30 miles downstream from the confluence of Bogue Lusa Creek (U.S.,
EPA, Off. of Planning & Mgmt., 1980). In 1964, the company in-
stalled a primary treatment plant. The mill's BOD load, which
had averaged 76,000 pounds a day, dropped to 54,000 pounds a day.
The mill also installed a system to add oxygen to the water dur-
ing periods of low flow in the summer and fall.
In 1972, a secondary treatment plant provided approximately
85 percent removal of BOD for some 25 to 35 million gallons a day.
The mill's outfall was relocated to discharge directly into the
much larger Pearl River. The mill now releases a maximum of
20,000 pounds a day of BOD.
The waters of the creek and the river have apparently been
restored to levels close to their former quality. Large masses
of partially decomposed wastes no longer float down the creek and
the river, and the Pearl River's water quality has shown improve-
ment for 20 to 30 miles downstream. Bogue Lusa Creek, which un-
til recently was totally devoid of any aquatic life, now supports
10-20
-------
a sizeable population of fish (U.S., EPA, Off. of Planning &
Mgmt., .1980).
As another example, in 1941 the St. Regis Paper Company built
a pulp and paper mill in Escambia County, Florida. The mill's
wastes were partially treated and then discharged into Eleven Mile
Creek, which flows about 12 miles southwest to the upper end of
Perdido Bay. Over the years, discharges into Eleven Mile Creek
increased to about 29 million gallons of partially treated wastes
each day. Discharges from the mill included 42,500 pounds of BOD
wastes, 48,000 pounds of organic carbon, and 17,000 pounds of to-
tal suspended solids each day. The water was discolored, dis-
solved oxygen was very low, and swimming was impossible. In 1969,
St. Regis Paper Company agreed to clean up its discharges, and it
has done so steadily—with the aid of an EPA pilot plant grant.
As a result, Florida now classifies its half of the bay and
Eleven Mile Creek as suitable for swimming and for fish and wild-
life preservation. Alabama has also classified its portion of
the bay as suitable for these same uses and for shellfish harvest-
ing as well (U.S., EPA, Off. of Planning & Mgmt., 1980). Addi-
tional descriptions of water quality concerns from these and re-
lated industrial developments are discussed in chapters 12 and 14.
10.5.3 Air Emissions
Air quality may be affected by increased carbon monoxide emis-
sions by the paper and pulp industry. In Region 4, carbon monox-
ide emissions from the pulp and paper industry in the year 2000
are projected to increase between 100 and 150 percent over 1975
levels. Emissions in Region 6 are projected to triple by 2000,
and represent 8 percent of regional carbon monoxide (U.S., EPA,
ORD, 1980b).
Local problems may be created by strong odors of hydrogen
sulfide and organic sulfur compounds.1 Kraft pulp mills can
create a community nuisance since total control of the odorous
compounds and the particulate material is not yet possible. How-
ever, the frequency of nuisance complaints is apparently less now
than ten or fifteen years ago, as improvements in the control of
sulfur compound emissions are being achieved. Air quality regu-
latory issues and any potential requirements to reduce emission
levels are a significant uncertainty for the pulp and paper in-
dustry. Air quality standards for some mills are difficult to
achieve and present technical and financial problems (U.S., Dept.
of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980b).
-'•Organic sulfur compounds include mercaptans and some sul-
fides such as methyl sulfide and dimethyl disulfide.
10-21
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10.5.4 Hazardous and Toxic Effluents
At the present time by-products and effluents from the pulp
and paper industry are not classified as hazardous wastes (see
Chapter 15). There is apprehension in the industry that classi-
fication of pulp mill process water as hazardous waste, for ex-
ample, may require that many wastewater treatment ponds be lined
with impervious material, which would require significant new
expenditures (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of Census, 1980b).
The levels of toxic effluents generated and released in pulp
manufacture largely depend on the process. In the kraft process,
levels of toxic effluents depend on the efficiency of pulp wash-
ing and frequency of spills. The volume of toxic effluents gen-
erally is less of a problem in the sulfite process, since many
compounds are decomposed during the digestion phase. Although
data concerning toxic effluents from the groundwood process are
limited since few chemicals are used, effluents are probably
lower than for the kraft or sulfite processes (Hutchins, 1979).
The EPA recently concluded a study of the need for regula-
tions controlling potentially toxic effluents in pulp and paper
mills. As shown in Table 10-12, the sulfite pulping process in
the integrated segment and the deink and paper from wastepaper
processes in the secondary fibers segment generate a wide range
of potentially toxic pollutant chemicals (U.S., EPA, Off. of
Water and Waste Mgmt., 1980). Table 10-12 shows only those po-
tential toxic effluents with concentrations above or equal to
specific treatability levels in either raw wastewater or net dis-
charges (U.S., EPA, Off. of Water and Waste Mgmt., 1980). In
general, these appear in amounts judged too small to be control-
led (Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc. v. Train, 1976).
Only three toxic effluents(trichlorophenol, chloroform, and pen-
tachlorophenol) have been recommended to be regulated. Zinc is
also currently regulated and has resulted in the reduction in use
of zinc based additives (U.S., EPA, Off. of Water and Waste
Mgmt., 1980).
10.6 SUMMARY
The pulp and paper industry is heavily concentrated within
the study area and is projected to expand significantly in the
future. The nationwide and worldwide marketing flexibility
derived from being competitive as a low-cost producer may enable
the industry to increase total shipments, and maintain a real
growth at least commensurate with GNP.
The pulp and paper industry now withdraws large quantities
of water, and is expected to increase consumption significantly
in the future. The pulp and paper industry has made significant
10-22
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TABLE 10-12: TOXIC POLLUTANTS OF THE PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY
1 ntegrated
Toxic Ground- Seml-
Po Mutant Kraft wood chemical
Benzene
1,1.1
Trichloroethane
Tr Ichlorophenol3 X
Chloroform8 X
2 Chlorophenol
2 , 4-D i ch 1 oropheno 1
Ethyl benzene
Bromoform
Napthalene
Pentachlorophenola X X
Phenol XXX
Butyl Benzyl
Phthalate X X
Dt-N-Butyl
Phthalate X
Diethyl Phthalate
Tetrach 1 oroethy 1 ene
To 1 uene X X
Tr I ch 1 oroethy 1 ene
PCB 1242
PCB 1254 X
PCB 1248
PCB 1260
Cyanide
Lead
Z I ncb X
Sulflte
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Paper
From
Waste
Paper
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Secondary Fibers
Tissue
From
Waste
De Ink Ing Paper
X
X
X
X
X X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Bu 1 1 ders
Paper
and
Roof 1 ng
Felt
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Source: U.S., EPA, Off. of Water and Waste Mgmt., 1980.
aProposed to be regulated.
"Currently regulated.
10-23
-------
pollution control outlays and reduced levels of pollutant dis-
charges significantly during the past decade. Nevertheless, the
industry still faces a number of uncertainties, including the fol-
lowing:
(1) There are wide ranges in effluent levels from existing
plants;
(2) Hazardous waste control requirements are not yet
known; and
(3) New air and water quality standards may impose fur-
ther technical and financial problems in some mills
in the coming years.
The costs of environmental regulations for specific industry
segments are obscured in the overall industry figures. However,
the pulp mills, which supply the raw materials for further manu-
facture or for market shipment, undoubtedly generate most of the
water quality, effluent disposal, air quality, and hazardous
chemicals disposal problems within the industry. Locally, major
environmental clean up "success" stories have accompanied pollu-
tion control improvements in the industry during the past decade.
However, some plants are still accountable for major releases of
biochemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, and air emissions
that reduce local environmental quality in many southern locali-
ties .
10-24
-------
REFERENCES
Allan, Leslie, et al. 1972. Paper Profits; Pollution in the
Pulp and Paper Industry, by the Council on Economic Priori-
ties. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
American Pulpwood Association. 1979. Mill Energy Consumption
Survey—1979. Jackson, Miss. As cited in U.S., Department
of Commerce, Industry and Trade Administration. 1980. 1980
Industrial Outlook for 200 Industries with Projections for
1984.Washington,B.C.:Government Printing Office.
Bellamy, Thomas R. 1978. Southern Pulpwood Production, 1977.
Asheville, N.C.: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest
Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station.
Bertelson, Daniel F. 1979. Southern Pulpwood Production, 1978.
New Orleans: U.S., Department of Agriculture, Forest Ser-
vice, Southern Forest Experiment Station.
Clean Water Act of 1977, Pub. L. 95-217, 91 Stat. 1566.
Federal Register 46 (January 6, 1981):pt. III. "Proposed Rules
for the Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Industry Point Source
Categories."
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L.
92-500, 86 Stat. 816.
Forest Products Review, Summer 1980 (U.S., Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Industrial Economics).
Guthrie, John A. 1972. An Economic Analysis of the Pulp and
Paper Industry. Pullman: Washington State University,
Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
Hunt, Robert, and William E. Franklin. 1973. "Environmental
Effects of Recycling Paper." In Kaghan, Walter S., ed.
Forest Products and the Environment, vol.69, No. 133. New
York: American Institute of Chemical Engineers.
Hutchins, Floyd E. 1979. Toxicity of Pulp and Paper Mills
Effluent. Corvallis, Oreg.: U.S., Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Research and Development, Corvallis
Environmental Research Laboratory.
10-25
-------
National Energy Act of 1978, Pub. L. 95-617, 95-618, 95-619,
95-620, and 95-621, 92 Stat. 3117 et seq.
Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc. v. Train, 8 ERG 2120
(D.D.C. 1976), modified 12 ERG 1833 (D.D.C. 1979)(1)(2).
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
1980. The Pulp and Paper Industry 1978-1979. Paris:
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, Pub. L. 94-580,
90 Stat. 2795.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1980.
Regional Economic Projections. Washington, D.C.: BEA.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1979. Pulp,
Paper, and Board Summary for 1978, Current Industrial Re-
ports. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1980a.
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1980. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 1980b. Pol-
lution Abatement Cost and Expenditures 1978, Current Indus-
trial Reports. Washington D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Industry and Trade Administration.
1980. 1980 Industrial Outlook for 200 Industries with Pro-
jections for 1984. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Planning
and Management. 1980. National Accomplishments in Pollution
Control; 1970-1980; Some Case Histories. Washington, D.C.
EPA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research
and Development (ORD), Strategic Analysis Group. 1980a.
Environmental Outlook 1980. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research
and Development (ORD). 1980b. Treatability Manual, Vol. II:
Industrial Descriptions. Washington, D.C.: EPA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Water and
Waste Management, Effluent Guidelines Division. 1980.
Development Document for Effluent Limitations Guidelines and
Standards for the Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard and the
Builders' Paper and Board Mills. Washington, D.C.: EPA.
10-26
-------
U.S., Water Resources Council (WRC). 1978. The Nation's Water
Resources 1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Weyerhaeuser Corporation, Staff. January 8, 1982. Personal
Communication.
10-27
-------
CHAPTER 11
AIR QUALITY
HIGHLIGHTS
• Status and Trends
Air quality throughout the Southeast and the Southwest is
generally good and is expected to remain so in the future,
even with continuing growth and development. The lack of
Class I areas in the Southeast, the relatively low base of
emissions levels in the Southwest, and the increasing use
of innovative regulatory approaches should provide the
flexibility needed by industry for location and expansion.
The Sunbelt states contributed approximately one-third of
the U.S. emissions reported in 1978 for particulates,
sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, hydrocarbons, and carbon
monoxide. Region 4 contributed about 22 percent of the
nation's sulfur oxide emissions compared to 9 percent in
Region 6. About 22 percent of the nation's nitrogen oxide
emissions came from Region 6, primarily from Texas.
Mobile source emissions continue to be a major source of
air pollution in the larger cities in the Sunbelt, espe-
cially Houston, Dallas, the Piedmont area of North
Carolina and South Carolina near Charlotte and the
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale and Tampa-St. Petersburg areas in
Florida.
Geographic Areas
4. The air quality of the Gulf Coast area of Texas may be
subject to multiple and cumulative impacts from rapid
population and industrial growth as well as energy devel-
opments. Projected increases in sulfur oxides, nitrogen
oxides, particulates, and volatile organic compounds are
attributed to current and anticipated increases in chemi-
cal production, multiple energy developments, some
switching to coal-fired industrial combustion, and
increasing mobile source emissions throughout the area.
-------
Kentucky and Tennessee continue to have problems with
sulfur dioxide emissions, especially in the Ohio River
Basin and near the large coal-fired power plants for TVA--
areas expected to maintain or increase power production
levels in the future.
Ozone continues to be a problem in major cities throughout
the Sunbelt, including Memphis, Tennessee; Mobile,
Alabama; Albuquerque, New Mexico; El Paso, Texas; and
Charlotte, North Carolina. Carbon monoxide levels have
decreased in Louisville, Kentucky; Charlotte, North
Carolina; and Nashville, Tennessee.
Key Problems and Issues
7. Acid precipitation is of increasing concern in the South.
Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, and Texas contribute a large
share of sulfur and nitrogen oxides believed to be precur-
sors to acid rain. Parts of the Southwest and much of
the Southeast, particularly central Alabama and Georgia,
eastern Tennessee, and western North Carolina have soil
conditions suggesting sensitivity to the effects of acid
precipitation.
-------
CHAPTER 11
AIR QUALITY
11.1 INTRODUCTION
Since the Clean Air Act (CAA) was passed over a decade ago,
significant improvements in overall air quality have been made
both across the nation and in the 13-state study area. For ex-
ample, between 1973 and 1978, average annual concentrations of
suspended particulates decreased by 7 percent nationally, sulfur
dioxide (802) by 20 percent, and carbon monoxide (CO) by 33 per-
cent (U.S., NCAQ, 1981). In the southern regions, cities like
Birmingham have shown dramatic improvement in air quality.
Other cities, such as Louisville and Houston, with more intrac-
table problems have begun to take advantage of new regulatory
approaches such as the emission offset banking program.
As discussed in chapters 3 and 4, the Sunbelt is experiencing
rapid growth and change from an increasing population, urbaniza-
tion, industrialization, and energy development. While growth
and development are creating economic benefits for the regions,
they also have potentially negative implications for local and
regional efforts to maintain or improve air quality. In addition,
available information on toxic pollutants and the extent of wet
and dry acid deposition suggests that a continuing effort will be
required to provide room for economic growth in the region while
maintaining air quality.
The following section (11.2) provides a brief overview of the
regulatory system for air quality, the meteorological conditions
affecting air quality in the study area, and the status of criter-
ia and noncriteria pollution. Section 11.3 discusses how changes
throughout the Sunbelt, such as urbanization, energy development
and production, and industrial growth are likely to affect air
quality concerns in the future.
11.2 EXISTING CONDITIONS
11.2.1 The Regulatory System
Major regulatory mechanisms for protecting air quality are
shown in Table 11-1. Although most of these regulations are
11-1
-------
TABLE 11-1: MAJOR REGULATORY MECHANISMS FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
Regulatory
Mechanism
National Ambient
Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS)
and State Implemen-
tation Plan (SIP)
Legislative
Source of
Mechanism
1970 CAA
Amendments
(P.L. 91-604)
Scope:
Regulates
Emissions or
Ambient Air
Quality
Emissions
and
ambient air
Pollutants
Regulated
All criteria
pollutants
Sources
Affected
Stationary
and mobile
Summary Description
of Regulation
For existing (pre-1971)
industrial and electric
utility facilities, sets
limits on emissions as
part of a statewide plan
to reduce ambient con-
centrations of criteria
pollutants.
I
to
New Source
Performance
Standards
(NSPS)
Revised
NSPS
1970 CAA
Amendments
1977 CAA
Amendments
(P.L. 95-95;
Emissions
Emissions
All criteria
pollutants
All criteria
pollutants
Mobile Source
Emission
Standards
1970 CAA
Amendments
Emissions
Nitrogen ox-
ides, hydro-
carbons , car-
bon monoxide,
photochemical
oxidants
Stationary Requires new facilities
in selected industries
to meet national
emission standards for
criteria pollutants.
Stationary Provides new and
stricter emission stan-
dards for criteria
pollutants reflecting
the degree of control
that can be achieved by
best available control
technologies (BACT).
Mobile Requires automobile and
truck manufacturers to
produce vehicles meeting
standards that are made
more stringent over
time.
(continued)
-------
TABLE 11-1: (continued)
Regulatory
Mechanism
Offset Require-
ments
Legislative
Source of
Mechanism
1977 CAA
Amendments
Scope :
Regulates
Emissions or
Ambient Air
Quality
Emissions
Pollutants
Regulated
All criteria
pollutants
Sources
Affected
Stationary
and mobile
Summary Ex
of Regi
In areas v:
mary and si
!_, Prevention of
,_, Significant
I Deterioration
w (PSD) Require-
ments
National Emission
Standards for
Hazardous Air
Pollutants
1977 CAA
Amendments
Ambient air
1970 CAA
Amendments
Emissions
Particulates,
sulfur diox-
ide
Asbestos,
beryllium,
mercury, vinyl
chloride, and
radionuclides
NAAQS, requires sources
to identify and implement
methods to more than
"off-set" emission in-
creases by reducing
emissions from sources
already in the area.
Stationary In areas that meet NAAQS,
and mobile strictly regulates in-
creases in ambient pol-
lution levels in order
to prevent any signifi-
cant deterioration of
air quality.
Stationary Provides emission stan-
and mobile dards for hazardous air
pollutants that are not
regulated by ambient air
quality standards.
Source: Adapted from U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a.
-------
stated in terms of abatement of emissions at their sources, in
combination they are designed to achieve congressionally mandated
standards for ambient air quality designed to protect public
health (primary standards) and welfare (secondary standards).
Criteria have been established to limit the permissible ambient
concentrations of seven pollutants—particulates (TSP), sulfur
oxides (SOX), nitrogen oxides (NOX), hydrocarbons (HC), CO, photo-
chemical oxidants (measured as ozone), and lead. The 1977 CAA
Amendments require periodic review of these standards, including
analyses of whether other pollutants (e.g., fine particulates,
sulfates) need to be controlled.
The CAA has been scheduled for reconsideration by Congress in
1981-82 as part of the periodic reauthorization process. Al-
though broad support continues to exist nationally for the goals
of the CAA (see Chapter 5), Congress may make major changes in
specific sections of the statute. Rather than anticipating these
changes, the discussion on problems and issues in this chapter
will be based on the existing statute as amended in 1970 and 1977,
11.2.2 Meteorology
Large-scale meteorological conditions as well as local air
dispersion factors such as windspeed, wind direction, or cloud
cover can directly affect both local and regional air quality.
The climate of the Sunbelt is influenced by the large continental
area of the region and the tropical and subtropical Gulf and At-
lantic Ocean areas. Typically, ventilation in the area is good
with predominant southwesterly winds. However, dramatic changes
in weather patterns are common, especially in the spring and fall
months as cold and warm fronts move in and out of the region.
During these periods, stagnant air pollution episodes are at a
minimum.
During winter and summer months the movement of fronts is
slower and high pressure can settle over all or parts of the
southern regions, especially the Southeast, causing air stagna-
tion with an enhanced probability of air pollution. Since pres-
sure fronts are not as frequent during these months, the slower
moving air also circulates pollutants locally among industrial
centers; thus, atmospheric loadings are very different from the
qualities of the original tropical or subartic air. Atmospheric
loadings in Oklahoma, for example, can originate from industrial
centers in Texas when southerly flow predominates. But with the
passage of cold fronts, southern areas may receive pollutants
from the Ohio River Basin. Large-scale counter-clockwise air cir-
culation around high pressure zones can lead to continued accumu-
lation of air pollutants in the South as air from the Ohio River
Basin circles through the southwestern states, over to the south-
ern states and back up toward the basin. In most cases, however,
these circulation patterns do not persist, so that local
11-4
-------
meteorological conditions and atmospheric loadings tend to be a
more important factor for air quality.
Figure 11-1 indicates regions in the study area which are par-
ticularly susceptible to air pollution problems by showing the
total forecast days of high meteorological potential for air pol-
lution in a five-year period. Much of Region 4 is especially
susceptible to these episodes, particularly the Appalachian and
Piedmont areas in Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Geor-
gia, Alabama, and Tennessee. Northern Georgia and Alabama, east-
ern Kentucky and Tennessee and western North Carolina have 30 or
more such forecast days in a five-year period. Metropolitan
areas subject to episodes of high air stagnation caused by low
winds and mixing heights include New Orleans, Louisiana; Birming-
ham, Alabama; Atlanta, Georgia; Knoxville and Nashville, Tennes-
see; Little Rock, Arkansas; Amarillo and El Paso, Texas.
Meteorological conditions generally affect the extent to
which air quality interacts with other media (e.g., land and
water) to create potential environmental problems. For example,
the amount of moisture and the form which it takes (e.g., dew,
fog, rain, snow, etc.) in a particular area can determine the ex-
tent to which air pollutants are deposited on soils and bodies of
water in the area rather than being dispersed or transported to
another area. In addition to acid deposition, other problems
found to be associated with long-range pollutant transport in-
clude the deterioration of visibility throughout a region, the
transport of ozone and ozone precursors between nearby areas,
and growing interstate air pollution (U.S., NCAQ, 1981).
11.2,3 Criteria Pollutants
A. Major Sources and Emission Levels
The National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) were estab-
lished to protect human health and welfare from the most perva-
sive pollutants. To date, standards have been established for
seven of these "criteria" pollutants, as identified in the sec-
tion on the regulatory system. Under the Congressional mandate
in the CAA, standards for criteria pollutants are based on a
threshold concept—i.e., a level of pollution exists below which
there are no adverse effects. In addition, the standards assume
a "margin of safety," so that even those groups believed to be
the most susceptible to the health effects of the particular pol-
lutant will not experience adverse effects from pollution levels
just below the standards (Landsberg et al., 1979, p. 344). How-
ever, the lack of sufficient knowledge about such effects has
made these standards controversial.
One of EPA's data systems related to air quality is the
National Emissions Data System (NEDS) (U.S., EPA, Off. of Air
11-5
-------
10
20
30
Figure 11-1:
Isopleths of Total Number of Forecast-Days of High Meteorological
Potential for Air Pollution in a 5-year Period. (Data based on
forecasts issued since August 1, 1960 and October 1, 1963 for eastern
and western parts of the United States, respectively, through April 3,
1970)
Source: Holzworth, 1972.
-------
Quality Planning and Standards, 1980a), comprised of emissions
estimates for individual point and area sources. Table 11-2,
based on the NEDS data, shows the percentage which each state in
regions 4 and 6 contributes to the regional and national total
emissions levels for five pollutants: TSP, SOX, NOX, HC, and CO.
The Sunbelt states contribute approximately one-third of the U.S.
total of all five pollutants. The two regions contribute approx-
imately equal amounts of NOX, HC, and CO to the national total.
However, the relative contribution of states within the Southeast
and Southwest can vary widely. For example, as might be expected
both from land area and industrial development, Texas contributed
over one-half of the total emissions for each of the pollutants
in Region 6. In Region 4, emissions were more even. In only two
instances did a state exceed a 20 percent share of the regional
emissions: Kentucky contributed 25 percent of the SOX emissions
in 1978 and Florida contributed 24 percent of the CO emissions
for 1978.
In contrast to the relatively even regional contributions for
NOX, HC, and CO, Region 6 contributed twice the proportion (25
percent) to the national total TSP emission levels that Region 4
(12 percent) contributed in 1978. Texas and New Mexico together
were responsible for over 75 percent of Region 6's TSP emissions,
primarily because of the high levels of localized dust from un-
paved roads, agricultural activities, and fugitive dust. Within
Region 4, TSP emissions were more evenly distributed among the
states, with Florida contributing the largest state share (17
percent).
The regional roles in generating SOX emissions are reversed,
with Region 4 contributing a two and one-half times greater share
to the national total than did Region 6. In Region 4, Kentucky
and Tennessee contributed 24 percent and 19 percent, respectively,
of the regional total for SOX emissions, primarily as a result of
coal-fired electric generation. In Region 6, Texas contributed
the largest share (58 percent) of regional SOX emissions. How-
ever, the sources of those emissions were more diverse than they
were for most of the states in Region 4.
Major sources-'- of emissions for five pollutants within each
of the states have been summarized for both the Southeast and the
Southwest. In the southeastern states (see Table 11-3), TSP was
primarily attributable to unpaved roads and land vehicles. This
is not the case for Alabama, where electric generation contrib-
uted 28 percent of that state's total, and Kentucky where mineral
products (stone, clay, and glass) contributed 28 percent to the
state's total.
1These tables identify all sources which contribute 10 per-
cent or more to the states' total emission tons per year for a
given pollutant. Emissions data for lead are not yet available.
11-7
-------
TABLE 11-2: STATE CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL EMISSIONS OF CRITERIA
POLLUTANTS, 1978
Region/State
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total (tpy)
(% of U.S.
total)
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total (tpy)
(% of U.S.
total)
TSP
13%
17
13
11
13
13
7
13
5,731,439
(12%)
8%
5
24
11
52
11,551,547
(25%)
sox
(percent
15%
14
10
24
4
9
5
19
6,911,677
(22%)
6%
14
19
3
58
2,862,952
(9%)
Pollutants
NOX
of regional
13%
19
12
15
7
14
7
15
4,107,793
(17%)
5%
25
6
9
56
5,360,245
(22%)
HC
total)
12%
20
13
10
7
16
9
13
4,737,254
(16%)
6%
18
4
9
63
5,206,846
(18%)
CO
12%
24
15
9
7
14
8
12
19,790,082
(17%)
8%
17
6
12
57
17,383,198
(15%)
Regions 4 and 6
Total
(% of U.S.
total)
Total U.S.
17,282,986 9,774,629 9,468,038 9,944,100 37,173,280
(37%) (30%) (39%) (34%) (32%)
46,855,182 32,141,311 24,021,172 29,445,356 116,301,567
Source: Calculated from U.S., EPA, Off. of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, 1980a.
11-8
-------
TABLE 11-3: MAJOR SOURCESa OF CRITERIA POLLUTANTS FOR STATES IN REGION 4, 1978
Pol lutant Source
(? of state total)
State
A 1 abama Tota 1
Florida Total
Georg I a Tota 1
TSP
718,577 tpy
Electric
generation (28?)
Unpaved roads (28?)
Land vehicles (15?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (12?)
975,710 tpy
Unpaved roads (46?)
Land vehicles (30?)
743,240 tpy
Unpaved roads (59?)
Land vehicles (21?)
sox
1,047,487 tpy
Electric
generation (70?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (15?)
Industrial
processes (11?)
963,724 tpy
Electric
generation (70?)
1 ndustrlal
processes (12?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (10?)
696,157 tpy
Electric
generation (79?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (12?)
NOX
526,074 tpy
Electric
generation (37?)
Land
vehicles (37?)
764,131 tpy
Land vehicles (44?)
Electric
generation (38?)
477,671 tpy
Land vehicles (55?)
Electric
generation (28?)
HC
522,415 tpy
Land vehicles (40?)
Solvent evap-
oration loss (23?)
Industrial
processes (13?)
938,067 tpy
Land vehicles (53?)
Solvent evap-
oration loss (22?)
628,971 tpy
Land vehicles (49?)
Solvent evap-
oration loss (30?)
CO
2,425,847 tpy
Land vehicles (70?)
Forest wl Idf ires
and managed
burning (20?)
Industrial
processes (11?)
4,807,813 tpy
Land vehicles (85?)
2,899,085 tpy
Land vehicles (82?)
(continued)
-------
TABLE 11-3: (continued)
M
I-"
1
|— >
O
State TSP
Kentucky Total 641,066 tpy
Mineral products (28%)
Unpaved roads (26?)
Electric
generation (15$)
Land vehicles (14?)
Mississippi Total 734,500 tpy
II _. 1 l_ / J- Trf \
Pol lutant Source
(? of state total)
SOX NOX
1,630,831 tpy 608,272 tpy
Electric Electric
generation (94%) generation (57?)
Land
vehicles (30?)
310,256 tpy 273,632 tpy
r-l 1 !_ 1 l.._Lt_l / **^tf
HC
485,273 tpy
Land
vehicles (40?)
Solvent evap-
oration loss (17?)
Organic solvent
evaporation (11?)
351,466 tpy
V 1 J . !_!_!__ t -y A
-------
TABLE 11-3: (continued)
Pol
lutant Source
(% of state total)
State
South
Carol fna
Tennessee
TSP
Total 410,520 tpy
Unpaved roads (47?)
Land vehicles (18$)
Industrial
processes (11?)
Total 767,244 tpy
Unpaved roads (56$)
Land vehicles (17?)
sox
325,269 tpy
Electric
generation (62?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (26?)
1,288,427 tpy
Electric
generation (78?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (15?)
NOX
300,348 tpy
Land vehicles (45?)
Electric
generation (33?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (15?)
601,164 tpy
E 1 ectr 1 c
generation (38?)
Land
vehicles (40?)
HC CO
404,281 tpy 1,530,517 tpy
Land vehicles (40?) Land vehicles (79?)
Solvent evap-
oration loss (25?)
Industrial
processes (16?)
618,640 tpy 2,328,433 tpy
Land vehicles (42?) Land vehicles (85?)
Solvent evap-
oration loss (21?)
Chem I ca 1
manufacturing (10?)
tpy = tons per year
Source: Calculated from U.S., EPA, Off. of Air Quality Planning and Standards, 1980a.
aA major source was defined to be any which contributed 10 percent or more to the state emissions level for any one of the five
criteria pollutants.
-------
Electric generation (e.g., coal-fired power plants) contrib-
uted 62 percent or more of the SOX emissions for each state in
the Southeast. As a region, the Southeast contributed 22 percent
to the national total. Of Kentucky's high regional share of 24
percent, 94 percent was attributed to electric generation, while
78 percent of Tennessee's share was attributed to this source.
Emissions from land vehicles and electric generation were
typically the major sources for NOX emissions in all states in
Region 4, while land vehicles and organic solvent evaporation
were the major sources for HC emissions in the region. Land
vehicles were the major source of CO with heavily populated and
urbanized Florida contributing the largest share in the region.
As mentioned earlier, the southwestern states were a major
source of TSP in 1978 (see Table 11-4); however, in every state
but Louisiana, 80 percent or more of these emissions were attrib-
uted to unpaved roads. In Louisiana, 44 percent were attributed
to unpaved roads, while industrial processes were attributed with
22 percent and land vehicles with 18 percent.
Southwestern states contributed a smaller share of SOX emis-
sions than states in the Southeast, yet these emissions were gen-
erated by a wider variety of sources. While electric generation
was still an important source in every state in Region 6, other
sources such as industrial fuel combustion, petroleum industry,
and primary metals were also important. In Texas, for example,
which contributed at least three times more SOX emissions to the
regional total than did any other state, major sources included
chemical manufacturing (23 percent), electric generation (21 per-
cent), industrial fuel combustion (15 percent), petroleum indus-
try (13 percent) and primary metals (11 percent). The major
sources of NOX emissions in Louisiana and Texas, which contrib-
uted the largest share in Region 6, were electric generation, in-
dustrial fuel combustion, and land vehicles. Similarly, these
two states contributed a large regional share of HC, primarily
from land vehicles, industrial fuel combustion, and the chemical
and petroleum industries. As expected, land vehicles were the
major source of CO emissions in all five states of Region 6.
Another perspective on emissions of criteria pollutants can
be gained by examining emission levels within Air Quality Control
Regions (AQCR's). As part of the effort to implement NAAQS,
AQCR's were mandated by the 1970 CAA.1 AQCR's (see Appendix 11A)
are frequently used to indicate areas where emissions are high
1AQCR's were designated by EPA after consultation with states
in March of 1971 (Dolgin and Guilbert 1974, p. 1067). See Appen-
dix 11A for a map of AQCR's.
11-12
-------
TABLE 11-4: MAJOR SOURCES^ OF CRITERIA POLLUTANTS FOR STATES IN REGION 6, 1978
I
t->
to
Pol Infant Source
(? of state total)
State
Arkansas Total
Louisiana Total
TSP SOX
963,136 tpy 158,227 tpy
Unpaved roads (80?) Electric
generation (38?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (33?)
Industrial
processes (21?)
608,188 tpy 396,089 tpy
Unpaved roads (44?) Petroleum
Industry (30?)
Industrial
processes (22?) Industrial fuel
combustion (20?)
Land vehicles (18?)
Electric
generation (17?)
NOX
245,694 tpy
Land vehicles (51?)
Electric
generation (22?)
Industrial
processes (19?)
1,346,496 tpy
Industrial fuel
combustion (60?)
E 1 ectr I c
generation (14?)
Land vehicles (13?)
HC
294,508 tpy
Land vehicles (45?)
Solvent evaporation
loss (30?)
947,667 tpy
Industrial fuel
combustion (25?)
Land vehicles (23?)
Chemical Manufac-
turing (19?)
CO
1,349,446 tpy
Land vehicles (75?)
2,949,623 tpy
Land vehicles (57?)
Chemical manufac-
turing (25?)
New Msxlco Total 2,803,306 tpy
Unpaved roads (95?)
557,216 tpy
311,936 tpy
Primary metals (44?) Electric
generation (39?)
Electric
generation (23?) Industrial fuel
combustion (33?)
Petroleum
Industry (16?) Land vehicles (22?)
214,363 tpy 975,742 tpy
Land vehicles (47?) Land vehicles (87?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (17?)
Petroleum storage
and transport (10?)
(continued)
-------
TABLE 11-4: (Continued)
Pol lutant Source
(% of state total)
State
Ok 1 ahoma Tota 1
TSP
1,215,256 tpy
Unpaved roads (82?)
sox
98,440 tpy
Petroleum
Industry (36$)
NOX HC
462,173 tpy 486,705 tpy
Land vehicles (36?) Land vehicles (41?)
CO
2,113,462 tpy
Land vehicles (76?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (29?)
Electric
generation (15?)
Land vehicles (11?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (36?)
Electric
generation (25?)
Petroleum industry Industrial
and transportation processes (12?)
(17?)
Solvent evaporation
loss (15?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (14?)
Texas Total 5,961,661 tpy
Unpaved roads (82?)
1,652,980 tpy
Chemical manufac-
turing (23?)
Electric
generation (21?)
Industrial fuel
combustion (15?)
Petroleum
Industry (13?)
Primary metals (11?)
2,993,946 tpy
Industrial fuel
combustion (45?)
c. I ectr I c
generation (22?)
Land vehicles (22?)
3,263,603 tpy 9,994,925 tpy
Land vehicles (25?) Land vehicles (65?)
Chemical manufac-
turing (17?)
Forest w!Idf ires
(13?)
Petroleum storage Chemical manufac-
and transport (11?) tuning (10?)
Solvent evaporation
loss (11?)
Source: Calculated from U.S., EPA, Off. of Air Quality Planning and Standards, 1980a.
aA major source was defined to be any which contributed 10? or more to the state emission level for any of the five criteria
pollutants.
-------
and, thus, where SIP ' s need to place emphasis. Figure 11-2 dis-
plays 1975 emissions by AQCR for five pollutants: TSP, SOX, NOX,
HC, and CO (Pechan, 1977). The darkest areas of the map show
areas with the highest emissions. Because AQCR ' s have different
numbers of monitoring stations, this information does not mean
that an entire shaded area has constant emissions; rather, these
shadings simply suggest general areas in which relatively high
emissions have been recorded. 1 These data must be interpreted
cautiously since they are fairly old (1975) and displayed in a
somewhat arbitrary way (see footnote 1). However, it is useful
for indicating general areas of emissions. For example, for
every pollutant, many AQCR's along the Gulf Coast record rela-
tively high emissions compared to those for the other Sunbelt
AQCR's; this typically includes about half of the Texas Coast,
across Louisiana and Alabama, and into the Florida panhandle.
Consistently high emissions are also found in the southern Appa-
lachian region, including northern Alabama, and central and east-
ern Tennessee. Much of central and southeastern Florida records
high emissions of SOX, NOX/ HC, and CO.
More specific information is supplied by emission inventor-
ies, as shown for Region 4 in Table 11-5. 2 Emission inventories
indicate total county emissions for criteria pollutants based on
emissions listed on permit applications, voluntarily reported
emissions, and estimates of area sources (U.S., EPA, Region 4,
1978). The counties shown in Table 11-5 are those for which emis-
sions were in the highest of four categories.3 Some states have
problems with several pollutants: Florida, for example, has at
least ten counties in the highest emission category for NOX, HC,
and CO. Similarly, Tennessee and Kentucky have several counties
which rank high in emissions of at least three pollutants. Three
of these counties have cities with over 700,000 people.
These data provide an indication of some of the worst coun-
ties in the study area in terms of emission sources. Six coun-
ties in Region 4 rank high on emissions for four pollutants:
Jefferson County (Alabama), Polk County (Florida), Chatham County
(Georgia), Jefferson County (Kentucky), Mecklenburg County (North
^Shading intervals for these maps were selected so that 70
percent of the land areas would remain unshaded, 15 percent would
be shaded light, and 15 percent shaded dark (Pechan 1977, p. 46).
Justification for this classification was not provided in the
report.
emissions inventory from Region 6 had not been made
available at the time that this report was prepared.
3For example, particulate emissions are categorized as:
(1) less than 1,000 tpy; (2) 1,000 to 2,999 tpy; (3) 3,000 to
9,999 tpy; and (4) 10,000 or more tpy.
11-15
-------
TSP Emissions
(thousand tons)
ABOVE 98
D 61 TO 98
D 0 TO 61
HC Emissions
(thousand tons)
ABOVE 150
D 80 TO 150
D 0 TO 80
Figure 11-2: Emissions of Criteria Pollutants in 1975
(continued on next page)
Source: Pechan, 1977; data from the National Emissions
Data System.
11-16
-------
Figure 11-2: (continued)
CO Emissions
(thousand tons)
m ABOVE 620
D 330 TO 620
D 0 TO 330
NOX Emissions
(thousand tons)
El ABOVE 140
D 93 TO 140
D 0 TO 93
SOX Emissions
(thousand tons)
H ABOVE 180
D 92 TO 180
D 0 TO 92
11-17
-------
TABLE 11-5: EMISSIONS INVENTORIES, REGION 4
Counties
with High
(tpy)
Emissions
State
TSP
(10M or more)
NOX
(10M or more)
HC
(10M or more)
CO
(100M or more)
SO2
(100M or more)
Alabama
Florida
*Jeffersona
Colbert
Jackson
Mobile
Talledega
*Dade
Polkb
i
M
00
*Jefferson
Mobile
Morgan
Walker
Greene
Jackson
Shelby
Bay
Brevard
*Broward
Dade
Duval
Escambia
*Hillsborough
Indian River
Lee
Manatee
Martin
Nassau
Orange
Palm Beach
*Pinellas
Polk
Volusia
*Jefferson
Mobile
Morgan
*Jefferson
Mobile
Alachua
Bay
Brevard
Broward
Dade
Duval
Escambia
*Hillsborough
Okaloosa
Orange
Palm Beach
*Pinellas
Polk
Sarasota
Volusia
Browarda
Dade
Duval
*Hillsborough
Orange
Palm Beach
*Pinellas
Polk
Volusia
Walton
Walker
Colbert
Jackson
Shelby
Escambia
(continued)
-------
TABLE 11-5: (continued)
Counties with High Emissions
State
Georgia
TSP NOX
(10M or more) ( 10M or more)
Bartow Bartow
Chatham Bibb
Chatham
Cobb
Coweta
DeKalb
Early
Floyd
*Fulton
Putnam
(tpy)
HC CO
(10M or more) (100M or more)
Chatham Chatham
DeKalb DeKalb1
*Fulton *Fulton1
Worth
S02
(100M or more)
Bartow
Coweta
Floyd
Sumter
Kentucky
Boyda
Breathitt
Harlan
*Jeffersona
Lawrence
Letcher
Livingston
McCracken9
Marshall3
Mercer
Muhlenberga
Pendleton
Pike
Pulaska
Bo yd
Daviess
Hancock
*Jefferson
Lawrence
McCracken
Mercer
Muhlenberg
Bo yd
Christian
Fayette
*Jefferson
Marshall
Meade
Pendleton
"Jet fersona
McCrackena
Muhlenberga
Mississippi Monroe
Hinds
Warren
Hinds
Jones
(continued)
-------
TABLE 11-5: (continued)
Counties with High Emissions
(tpy)
State
TSP
(10M or more)
NOX
(10M or more)
HC
(10M or more)
CO
100M or more)
SO2
(100M or more)
North
Carolina
Chatham
Columbus
Gaston
Mecklenburg
Rowan
i
NJ
o
South
Carolina
Buncombe
Forsyth
Gaston
Guilford
Mecklenburg
New Hanover
Person
Robeson
Rockingham
Rowan
Stokes
Wake
Wayne
Aiken
Charleston
Greenville
Richland
Spartanburg
Bumcombe
Cumberland
Forsyth
Gaston
Guilford
Mecklenburg
New Hanover
Robeson
Wake
Guilford
Mecklenburg3
Wake
Aiken
Anderson
Charleston
Florence
Greenville
Horry
Lexington
Richland
Spartanburg
Greenville
(continued)
-------
TABLE 11-5: (continued)
l
NJ
Counties with High Emissions
TSP
State (10M or more)
Tennessee *Davidsona
Hamblem
Hamilton9
Hawkins
Humphreys
Loudon
Roanea
*Shelbya
Sullivan3
Sumner13
NOX
(10M or more)
Anderson
Davidson
Hamilton
Hawkins
Humphreys
Knox
Roane
* Shelby
Stewart
Sullivan
Sumner
(tpy)
HC
(10M or more)
Bradley
Davidson
Giles
Hamilton
Knox
Sullivan
Sumner
CO
100M or more)
Davidson3
Hamilton
Knoxa
McMinn
*Shelbya
SO 2
(100M or more)
Humphreys3
Roane
Stewart
Sullivan
Sumner
M = thousand
*Counties with cities with populations over 700,000.
Sources: From U.S., EPA, Region 4, 1978, pp. 25-27; Alabama, Air Pollution Control
Commission, 1981; North Carolina, Dept. of Natural Resources and Community
Development, 1981.
aNonattainment for primary standard.
bNonattainment for secondary standard.
-------
Carolina), and Sumner County (Tennessee). With the exception of
Chatham County, all of these counties are nonattainment areas for
at least one pollutant. These counties may warrant special atten-
tion because large population centers are nearby, as is the case
for Birmingham in Jefferson County (Alabama) and Savannah in
Chatham County (Georgia), because of increasing concern about the
interaction of pollutants (such as SOX and fine particulates), or
because of the increasing concern for identifying sources of pol-
lutants which are transported long-range.
The ambient air quality standard for lead of 1.5 micrograrns
per cubic meter (ug/m^) (quarterly average) was established in
October 1978; however, monitoring stations are not required to
track lead emissions until July 1982. The primary source of
lead emissions has been automobiles—accounting for over 95 per-
cent of approximately 190,000 tons! of lead emitted in 1975 in
the U.S. (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a, pp. 128-29). This source should
decrease dramatically over the next two decades due to regulation
of lead content of fuels. Other primary emission sources are
lead smelting, electric power plants, industrial combustion,
petroleum refining, solid waste incineration, and gray iron pro-
duction.
Although the CAA was passed by Congress to protect the public
health from potentially harmful pollutants, the government is
still faced with considerable uncertainty in trying to determine
the specific pollutants and levels of pollutants which are likely
to produce "adverse health effects"; indeed, a consensus does not
exist even within the scientific and medical communities on what
is meant by "adverse health effects." There is, nonetheless, per-
suasive evidence that air pollution can adversely affect health.
Health concerns with criteria pollution range from irritation
of membranes to morbidity and mortality. Some criteria pollu-
tants can cause direct health effects—for example, TSP and SO2
can impede respiratory mechanisms, and lead is a highly toxic pol-
lutant with impacts on blood heme formation, kidneys, and the ner-
vous system. Criteria pollutants are also a concern because of
indirect effects: oxidation products of nitrogen dioxide (NO2)
can create respiratory problems, ozone and HC can lead to eye and
throat irritation, and sulfates can cause respiratory problems
(U.S., NCAQ, 1981).
Clinical and epidemiological studies are continuing to pro-
vide information on the effects of varying exposure levels of
criteria pollutants. Moreover, these studies are also suggesting
new areas of concern. For example, fine particles (less than one
l-This figure was obtained by averaging the three estimates
found on page 129 of the Environmental Outlook.
11-22
-------
micron in diameter) are now considered potentially more hazardous
to human health than those coarser particulates currently regu-
lated. This is because finer particles (1) lodge in the small
airways and air sacs of the lung which are quite vulnerable to
injury; (2) are more difficult for the body to clear out because
they tend to locate in the small airways and air sacs; and
(3) are most likely to penetrate the circulatory system, again,
because of the anatomical characteristics of the small airways
and air sacs (U.S., NCAQ, 1981, p. 74).
Fine particulates can absorb SC>2 and, perhaps, forms of sul-
fate (804) such as sulfuric acid. When absorbed by fine particu-
lates, the effects of 804 compounds may be increased because
these particles tend to remain in the respiratory system for long
periods (American Chemical Society, 1978). Studies have shown
that this synergistic effect causes "increased death rates for
persons over 50 years of age," when particulate concentrations
are about 100 milligrams per cubic meter and when sulfate levels
result in 304 precipitation rates above 30 milligrams per square
centimeter per month (Greenfield, Attaway, and Tyler, 1975J.1
This information suggests that regions with both high SOX and
high TSP concentrations are more likely to experience greater ad-
verse health effects from the combined effects of SC>2 and TSP.
In 1975, both Region 4 and Region 6 were relatively free of coun-
ties which violated both SC>2 and TSP standards; Region 4 had four
such counties and Region 6 none (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a, p. 215).
However, Region 6 is projected to have sharp increases in SOX and
moderate increases in TSP and, therefore, may be at risk for
higher levels of respiratory illness related to SOX and TSP inter-
action.
B. Nonattainment Areas
1. Counties
Attainment of NAAQS is a critical EPA concern since these
standards are intended to protect human health (primary stan-
dards) and welfare (secondary standards). States are responsible
for developing SIP's for meeting these standards. Table 11-6
identifies the percentage of counties in regions 4 and 6 which
violated standards for TSP, SC>2 and CO, NC>2, and photochemical
oxidants (Ox) in 1978 (U.S., CEQ, 1980).
In 1978 Region 4 had a large number of total counties in vio-
lation of standards, ranking second in this regard among the ten
regions for both TSP and SOX (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a). However,
l-Milligrams per square centimeter per month is the quantity
that settles into a square centimeter plate in one month's time.
11-23
-------
TABLE 11-6:
FREQUENCY OF VIOLATIONS OF EPA CRITERIA POLLUTANT STANDARDS BY COUNTIES
IN THE TEN FEDERAL REGIONS, 1978.
Federal Region
(number of
counties
monitoring
criteria pol-
CO Ox
% with
NAAQS
lutants)9 Violations
4
6
1
i_i
M 2
1
to
3
5
7
8
9
10
Southeast
(298)
Southcentral
(129)
New England
(41)
New York-
New Jersey
(83)
Middle
Atlantic
(147)
Great Lakes
(225)
Central
(61)
Mountain
(130)
West
(70)
Northwest
(71)
58
28
73
55
43
64
62
82
50
89
Violation
Days
23
11
55
21
8
28
31
53
19
67
% with
NAAQS
Violations
67
96
76
81
79
79
46
50
60
50
Violation
Days
12
35
29
31
47
34
31
10
30
0
N02
% with
NAAQS
Violations
13
8
0
9
21
18
40
5
22
0
% >10 % with
Violation NAAQS
Days
0
0
0
0
4
0
20
0
3
0
S02
% >10 % with
Violation NAAQS
Violations Days
8
1
7
5
4
14
6
9
13
14
0
0
10
0
1
3
0
7
7
0
TSP
Violation
Violations Days
8
24
10
11
12
27
32
29
38
40
1
3
0
2
1
5
4
2
7
1
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1980.
aCounties monitoring data on at least one criteria pollutant.
-------
since Region 4 had more counties than any other region, the per-
cent of its counties in violation is relatively small compared to
other regions. In contrast to every other region except the West,
the Southeast had more rural than urban counties in violation of
TSP standards. Many of these counties are in the Appalachian
coal mining and power production areas of Kentucky and Tennessee
where fugitive dust and stagnant air are particular problems (see
Chapter 6). Generally, nonattainment of CO standards was not
widespread in the Southeast in 1975 with only 12 counties (5 per-
cent) in violation of primary standards. However, by 1978, wor-
sening air quality in terms of the CO standards was found for
Louisville, Charlotte, and Nashville (U.S., NCAQ, 1981) and as
shown in Table 11-6, 172 counties violated NAAQS standards for CO
in Region 4. In contrast to Region 4, Region 6 ranks first in
the percent of counties violating NAAQS standards for ozone with
96 percent or 123 counties; sixth for TSP, seventh for NO2, and
last for both CO and SO2.
Figure 11-3 shows the specific counties in the Southeast and
Southwest which violated NAAQS during 1978-1980 for TSP, S02, CO,
oxidants, or NO2 (40 CFR 81.301-344). Many of the nonattainment
areas in the Southeast are concentrated near the Appalachian coal
fields and power plants in Kentucky, Tennessee, and northern
Alabama. In addition, many nonattainment areas surround large
cities, including Mobile and Birmingham (Alabama); Atlanta (Geor-
gia); Miami, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Ft. Lauderdale, Tallahassee,
and Jacksonville (Florida); Charleston and Columbia (South Caro-
lina); Nashville, Chattanooga, and Memphis (Tennessee); and Lou-
isville (Kentucky). Pollution in major metropolitan areas is
discussed further below.
In contrast to Region 4, Region 6 ranks among the best in at-
taining TSP, S02, and CO standards. Less than 2 percent of its
counties violated primary SO2 or CO standards and 3 percent of
its counties violated primary TSP standards (U.S., EPA, ORD,
1980a). Local areas within Region 6, however, continue to exper-
ience concentrated NAAQS violations. For example, fugitive dust
caused the primary particulate standard to be exceeded in at
least seven counties in New Mexico (U.S., EPA, Regional Offices,
1980, 1981). Figure 11-3 shows those counties in Region 6 which
violated at least one NAAQS. Levels of TSP actually increased in
the Houston area from 1975 to 1979. In 1979, Houston, Texas, and
Tulsa, Oklahoma, still had problems meeting the NO2 standards with
the NO2 problem actually deteriorating in Tulsa between 1975 and
1979.
Another criteria pollutant, photochemical oxidants (Ox), is a
complex group of chemicals formed when HC and NOX react in the
presence of sunlight. Often known as smog, this pollutant is
measured in terms of ozone concentrations. Since automobiles are
the major sources of ozone (HC and NOX), this is primarily a prob-
lem in cities. Figure 11-4 indicates violations of the NAAQS for
11-25
-------
Figure 11-3: Regions 4 and 6 Nonattainment
(counties which violated at least one NAAQS,
1978-80).
Source: Map based on data from 40 CFR §81.301-344.
-------
Z.Z-TT
01
No of Mrs Exceeding Standard
*i en (
§o <
O (
en
0
c
*-!
O
(D
a
en
w
00
10
C
H-
0
w
ft
(U
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CO
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(D
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a
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01
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ro
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(D
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3
^
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^
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-j-,
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X
i*
3
o
o
o
a>
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CO
c
h-1
ft-
H-
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H-
01
ft
3
CO
H-
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H-
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H-
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-------
ozone in 1976 in major areas of Region 4 (U.S., EPA, Region 4,
1978). Among the worst areas are Birmingham (Alabama), Sumner
County (Tennessee), the city of Jackson and Jackson and De Soto
Counties (Mississippi) which are just south of Memphis, and
Charlotte (North Carolina).
2. Metropolitan Areas
Air quality in metropolitan areas can be characterized by the
Pollutant Standard Index (PSI), a health related index adopted by
EPA to compare pollution levels uniformly throughout the nation
in a way easily reported by the news media. As indicated in Ap-
pendix 11B, a value of 100 on this index is considered unhealth-
ful, indicating the potential for mild aggravation of symptoms in
susceptible persons and irritation symptoms in healthy popula-
tions. Persons with existing health or respiratory ailments are
advised to reduce physical exertion and outdoor activity.
The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ)(U.S., CEQ, 1979)
analyzed PSI data for 23 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas
(SMSA's) for which reliable data existed in the EPA National Aer-
ometric Data Bank to detect trends for the five years 1974-78.
Of these 23 SMSA's, 4 are in our study area: Houston, Louisville,
Memphis, and Tampa.1 According to these data, Louisville has
shown steady progress in reducing the number of unhealthful, very
unhealthful, and hazardous days as indicated by the PSI levels.
Tampa and Memphis have experienced relatively few days (under 25
and 50 respectively) of high PSI levels yet the total has fluctu-
ated in each case rather than showing steady improvement. In con-
trast, Houston has shown a steadily increasing number of days
with high PSI levels—from less than 50 days in 1974 to about 100
days in 1978.
CEQ (1980) also ranked 40 large SMSA's, including six SMSA's
in the Sunbelt, according to data on violations of the NAAQS.
Table 11-7 shows CEQ's data for those six SMSA's in our study
area. Five severity classes were used to identify the number of
days each SMSA experienced unhealthful air quality. No SMSA's
were in the worst class. However, Louisville was in the second
worst class, experiencing between 100 and 150 days with PSI read-
ings over 100. For Louisville, CO was responsible for most of
the days with an index value over 100.
The three-year average number of unhealthful days for Louis-
ville (119) is considerably higher than for any of the other five
^•Eighteen SMSA's were not included because data were not col-
lected by CEQ. Of these eighteen, six are in our study area:
Atlanta, Birmingham, Greensboro-Winston Salem-High Point, Fort
Lauderdale, Miami, and New Orleans. See U.S., CEQ, 1979.
11-28
-------
TABLE 11-7: PSI VALUES FOR SIX SOUTHERN SMSA'S, 1976-1978
Number of
II
Unhealthful" Days
(PSI over 100)
Severity Class
(PSI >100)
II
100-150 days
III
50-99 days
IV
25-49 days
V
0-24 days
SMSA
(rank)
Louisville
(9)
Birmingham^
(15)
Houston
(17)
Memphis
(30)
Dallas
(34)
Tampa
(35)
3-Year
Average
119
75
69
28
22
12
Minimum-
Maximum
Annual
Days
During
Three
Years
94-160
50-100
50-94
22-37
6-35
5-19
Number
of "Very
Unhealthful" Days
(PSI over 200)
3-Year
Average
12
19
16
2
1
1
Minimum-
Maximum
Annual
Days
During
Three
Years
8-14
8-29
11-24
0-3
1-2
0-2
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1980.
aSee Appendix 11B for a description of the PSI.
^Based on only two years of data.
11-29
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SMSA's. The next worst SMSA's are Birmingham (75) and Houston
(69). The unhealthful days in Houston can almost entirely be at-
tributed to oxidants, while those in Birmingham can be attributed
primarily to particulates (see Table 11-7). In comparison to
Louisville, Birmingham, and Houston, the remaining three cities
have had considerably fewer unhealthful days. Other cities in
Region 4 also have air pollution problems. As shown in Table
11-8, 44 cities were in nonattainment areas in 1977, accounting
for approximately nine million people.
TABLE 11-8: CITIES IN NONATTAINMENT AREAS, REGION 4, 1976-1977
Population/1970
State
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
City
Birmingham
Gadsen
Mobile
Ft. Lauder-
dale
Miami
St. Peters-
burg
Tampa
Atlanta
Savannah
Corbin
Hazard
Henderson
Louisa
Louisville
Newport
Owensboro
Pikeville
Richmond
Sheperds-
ville
County SMSA
Jefferson 767,000
E tow ah
Mobile 377,000
Broward 620,000
Bade 1,268,000
Pinellas
Hills-
borough
Fulton 1,596,000
Chatham 208,000
Knox,
Whitley
Perry
Henderson
Kenton
Jefferson 867,000
Campbell
Daviess
Pike
Madison
Bullitt
City
305,893
53,928
190,026
139,590
334,859
216,159
277,714
495,039
118,349
7,317
5,459
22,976
1,781
361,706
25,998
50,329
5,205
18,907
2,769
Percent
of State
Population
in Non-
attainment
33
29
37
30
(continued)
11-30
-------
TABLE 11-8: (continued)
State
Missis-
sippi
North
Carolina
South
Carolina
City
Laurel
Charlotte
Newland
Charleston
Columbia
Georgetown
Rock Hill
Tennessee Bristol
Chattanooga
Columbia
Jacksboro
Johnson City
Kingsport
Kingston
LaFollette
Memphis
Mt. Pleasant
Nashville
Rockwood
Tullahoma
Union City
County
Jones
Mecklen-
berg
Avery
Charleston 336,000
Richland 323,000
Georgetown
York
Population/1970
SMSA City
Percent
of State
Population
in Non-
attainment
24,145
Sullivan
Hamilton
Maury
Campbell
Washington
Sullivan
Roane
Campbell
Shelby
Maury
Davidson
Roane
Coffee,
Franklin
Ob ion
371,000
834,000
699,000
524
66,945
113,542
10,449
33,846
25,343
166,947
21,471
689
39,054
31,938
4,142
7,262
657,007
3,530
447,877
5,259
15,311
11,025
25
50
Source: U.S., EPA, Region 4, 1978.
Despite continuing air quality problems in many metropolitan
areas, important examples of significant improvements in air qual-
ity exist. Birmingham, Alabama, which has experienced chronic
problems in meeting the particulates standard in the past, now
seems to have made real progress in local air quality. The num-
ber of particulate episodes in that city steadily decreased after
1976 (see Table 11-9) with the last episode recorded in 1978.
11-31
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TABLE 11-9: BIRMINGHAM PARTICULATE EPISODES, 1971-1981
Year Status^ Number of Episodes
1972 Alert 3
1973 Alert 3
1973 Warning 1
1974 Alert 2
1975 Alert 5
1976 Alert 5
1977 Alert 3
1978 Alert 1
1979 — 0
1980 — 0
1981 (Jan-Aug) — 0
Sources: Jefferson County Dept. of Health, Air Pollution Control
Program; Alabama Air Pollution Control Commission; 40 CFR 51; and
Hardy, et al. , 1974.
aAlert is defined as "Suspended particulate levels of 375
(24-hr avg) plus meteorological predictions that conditions will
remain unchanged or worsen during the next 12 hours."
Warning is defined as "Suspended particulate levels of 625 pg/m3
(24-hr avg) plus meteorological predictions that conditions will
remain unchanged or worsen during the next 12 hours."
Emergency is defined as "Suspended particulate levels of 875
( 24-hr avg)."
One major contributor to metropolitan area nonattainment des-
ignations is mobile source emissions. In 1977, for example, mo-
bile sources were responsible for 40 percent of the total HC, 84
percent of the total CO, and 39 percent of the total NOX emitted
into the nation's air (U.S., EPA, Off. of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, 1980b, p. vii). Current projections by EPA based
on the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) model
(U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a) show net HC, NOX, and CO emissions from
mobile sources declining through the year 2000. These projec-
tions are based on the assumption of compliance with mobile
source abatement requirements and continuing turnover of old,
more polluting vehicles in favor of newer less polluting
11-32
-------
vehicles.1 However, other factors suggest that mobile source pol-
lution may actually increase or at least fall short of projected
decreases. For example, in a recent GAO report (1979), an EPA
official stated that many of the cars manufactured on the U.S.
assembly lines are not meeting standards for certification. Re-
cent research indicates that under actual driving conditions, at
least 30 percent of the American cars will not meet the perfor-
mance standards established by testing prototype cars (Radian,
1980). In addition, the National Commission on Air Quality
(NCAQ)(1981, p. 129) concludes that failure of vehicles to be
maintained in such a way as to meet CO emissions standards is a
primary reason many states are not meeting the ambient CO stan-
dards. Further, according to recent Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) data (see Chapter 3), the study area is experiencing in-
creasing urbanization, thus, likely increasing the concentration
of mobile source pollution. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area,
greater Houston, and the Piedmont area of North Carolina and
South Carolina near Charlotte are all examples of areas which are
experiencing high population growth and consequent air quality
problems from mobile source emissions.
11.2.4 Noncriteria Pollutants
In addition to criteria pollutants, control of toxic or hazar
dous pollutants is of increasing concern because the potential
health and ecological effects tend to be more severe, even though
fewer people are likely to be exposed to these substances.
l"Net emissions represent pollutants actually released to the
atmosphere after all legally required abatement has been achieved"
(U.S., EPA, Off. of Air Quality Planning and Standards, 1980a,
p.84). These "net emissions" likely underestimate actual emis-
sions to some degree. Moreover, projections of future levels and
distribution of emissions by the SEAS model are based on four
major assumptions: (1) the increasing substitution of coal for
oil and gas as a utility and boiler fuel; (2) the rate at which
older electric utilities phase out or are replaced by new facili-
ties which must meet stricter controls; (3) the effects of eco-
nomic growth, fuel prices, etc., on transportation activities;
and (4) the expectation of increasing energy development and
accompanying industrial and population growth in the West and
Southwest. The SEAS model does not attempt to simulate the regu-
latory environment. In addition, projections for each criteria
pollutant are based on additional factors. For example, SEAS
estimates for particulates include only those generated from
human sources; those from natural sources, such as fugitive dust
in the southwestern states are excluded. See EPA's Environmental
Outlook 1980 (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a), Chapter 4, "Air Pollutants,"
for further discussions of the SEAS projections and how they com-
pare with other data such as that from the NEDS.
11-33
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Unlike the standard-setting process for criteria pollutants which
evolved over several years, the regulatory process for hazardous
pollutants is only now getting underway (U.S., NCAQ, 1981, p. 76).
At present, seven substances (asbestos, beryllium, mercury,
vinyl chloride, benzene, inorganic arsenic, and radionuclides)
are listed as hazardous pollutants in Section 112 of the CAA (see
Table 11-10) that requires EPA to list hazardous pollutants for
which it intends to set national emissions standards with "an
ample margin of safety." Of these seven, only four (asbestos,
beryllium, mercury, and vinyl chloride) have regulated emissions
limits. In addition, an extensive list of 43 other chemicals is
undergoing assessment for possible regulatory action. These sub-
stances were included on the basis of preliminary evidence of car-
cinogenicity or other toxicity, volume of emissions, volatility,
etc. (U.S., NCAQ, 1981), and would be the priority substances for
regulatory action if EPA moves forward with action under Section
112.
However, the difficulties inherent in identifying, screening,
and determining the specific health effects of hazardous sub-
stances as well as the "threshold" level of exposure are consid-
erable given the uncertainty of current scientific evidence.
Since the CAA seems to require zero or near zero emission levels
once a hazardous pollutant is identified, the effect on industry
can be substantial. Some of the major sources of these types of
substances include industries which play a major role in the
study area--for example, coal burning, nuclear utilities (see
Chapter 6), and the synthetic organic chemical manufacturers and
petroleum refineries (see Chapter 7). The study area already has
a large share of the petrochemical industry which produces and
uses substances such as benzene, chloroform, acrylonitrile, ethy-
lene dichloride, and vinyl chloride. Chemical production is like-
ly to expand throughout Texas and Louisiana in particular.
Considerable uncertainty exists about what the sources are
for some trace elements, particularly antimony and cadmium.
Among the known major sources of these substances for the study
area are electric utilities, industrial boilers, iron and steel
production, municipal incinerators, chemical production, and ag-
riculture. Table 11-11 indicates trace element emissions by
major source for regions 4 and 6. This table suggests that trace
elements are an important concern for the Southwest where over 30
percent of the national totals of selenium and manganese and 20
to 30 percent of the nation's total of fluorine and mercury are
emitted. Mercury is a concern in the Southwest, which is respon-
sible for over 30 percent of the national total. Although trace
element emissions are small, they represent an environmental
hazard because of their toxicity.
11-34
-------
TABLE 11-10:
PROGRAM STATUS FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS AIR
POLLUTANTS UNDER CAA
• Listed Under Section lll(d):
Sulfuric acid mist
Fluorides
Total reduced sulfur
• Candidates for Section lll(d)
Cadmium
Trichloroethylene
Perchloroethylene
Methyl chloroform
Methylene chloride
Trichlorotrifluoroethane
• Listed under Section 112:
Asbestos
Beryllium
Mercury
Vinyl chloride
Benzene
Inorganic arsenic
Radionuclides
Current candidates for Listing
under Section 112:
Acrylonitrile
Coke oven emissions
Future Candidates for Listing
under Section 112:
Epichlorohydrin
Ethylene dichloride
Ethylene oxide
Formaldehyde
Manganese
Nickel
Vinylidene chloride
Pollutants which may en-
danger public health and
welfare, which are not
included on lists pub-
lished for other sec-
tions and for which cri-
teria have not been
issued. Section 111 pro-
vides more flexibility in
setting standards of per-
formance than does Sec-
tion 112.
Pollutants which may
cause increases in seri-
ous illnesses or deaths
and for which EPA intends
to establish emissions
standards providing an
"ample margin of safety
to protect the public
health."
Source: Adapted from U.S., EPA, Off,
and Standards, 1981.
of Air Quality Planning
11-35
-------
TABLE 11-11: MAJOR SOURCES OF TRACE ELEMENT EMISSIONS FOR
REGIONS 4 AND 6, 1975
Trace Elements
Region 4
Region 6
Arsenic
Beryllium
Cadmium
Fluorine
Mercury
Selenium
Manganese
Utilities
Utilities
Nonferrous metals
Inorganic chemicals9
Inorganic chemicals3
Utilities13
Utilities13
Nonferrous metals
Utilities
Nonferrous metals
Inorganic chemicals
Inorganic chemicals*3
Nonferrous metals
Utilities
Source: Adapted from MITRE Corp. et al./ 1978.
aRegion emits between 20 percent and 30 percent of the nation-
al total.
^Region emits over 30 percent of the national total.
11.3 TRENDS AND ISSUES
11.3.1 Key Driving Forces
Changes occurring in the Sunbelt will continue to have impor-
tant impacts on air quality issues. Population growth (see Chap-
ters 2 and 3) has been distributed unevenly. For example, nearly
all southern metropolitan areas are growing faster than rural
areas, and new SMSA's are emerging throughout the South. Almost
half of the inmigration has occurred in Florida and Texas, with
cities such as Austin, Houston, Ft. Lauderdale, and Tampa (in
fact, the entire southern half of Florida) experiencing popula-
tion increases of over 25 percent between 1970 and 1977 (see Chap-
ter 3).
Many of these growth centers are already experiencing rela-
tively high emissions levels and, in some cases, are nonattain-
ment areas for particulates and ozone. Thus, the growing popula-
tion results in an increasing number of individuals being exposed
to potentially harmful levels of pollutants. Moreover, increas-
ing populations inevitably affect overall levels of human activ-
ity, especially in the area of transportation. Most large urban
areas in the Southeast and Southwest are already having difficul-
ty controlling mobile source emissions—a problem that is exacer-
bated by large population growth and urbanization.
11-36
-------
In addition to population increases, industrial growth ex-
pected in specific locations throughout the study area will con-
tribute to air quality problems. Some segments of the chemical
and allied products industry, already an important part of the
economy in both the Southeast and Southwest, are expanding pro-
duction near existing sites throughout the regions (see Chapter
7). The petrochemical industry is expected to increase produc-
tion levels at plants along the Gulf Coast areas of Texas and
Louisiana. This industry is a major emission source for toxic or
hazardous pollutants. The development of energy resources in the
Four Corners area of New Mexico, the Texas lignite belt, and in
the Appalachian areas of Kentucky and Tennessee may be con-
strained by current air quality standards and, in some cases,
will have a significant impact on local air quality conditions
(see Chapter 6).
Another industrial development with important implications
for local and regional air quality is the emphasis on encouraging
the increased use of domestic coal as a substitute for oil and
gas, particularly in the states of Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana
(see Chpater 6). The combustion of fossil fuels is a primary
source of air pollution with a particularly large portion of that
combustion attributed to electric utilities and industrial users.
If these sectors increase coal use, emission levels for TSP, SC>2,
and NO2 will rise depending on the strictness of future controls
and total growth of new source emissions (U.S., NCAQ, 1981).
After a brief discussion of projections for criteria pollutant
emissions in regions 4 and 6, the next section illustrates how
such changes in population, industrial growth, and energy devel-
opment and consumption could impact air quality in the Sunbelt.
To accomplish this, it focuses on such issues as the interaction
effects and long-range transport of air pollutants, the increas-
ing concentration of people in areas already designated as non-
attainment by EPA, and the potential conflicts between air qual-
ity standards and plans for local regional growth and development
of industry.
A. Region 6
The largest increases in emissions from population and indus-
trial growth are projected to occur in Region 6, an area that cur-
rently has relatively low emission levels. This is especially
true for projected increases of particulates, SC>2 and NOX. In
contrast to the national emission trend of slightly decreasing
levels of net emissions, regional net particulate emissions are
expected to increase by approximately 65 percent by 2000 (U.S.,
EPA, ORD, 1980b, p. 6).1 The major sources of this increase are
^Projections are based on the SEAS model. See footnote 1,
p. 33 supra.
11-37
-------
projected to be nonferrous metals production, particularly alumi-
num smelting (70 percent), increased coal use (20 percent), and
the construction metals industry. The largest increases in net
particulate emissions are expected to occur in Louisiana, Arkan-
sas, and Texas (Honea and Hillsman, 1979a, p. 32).
Net SC>2 emissions are expected to increase by as much as 200
percent in Region 6, largely from increased use of coal and lig-
nite and chemical manufacturing. It is estimated that 95 percent
of the projected increase in net S02 emissions from 1975 to 2000
is due to fuel switching to coal (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980b, p. 50).
A second major contributor to SC>2 emission increases is the over-
all rising demand for energy to support anticipated population
growth and industrial activity in the region.
Figure 11-5 provides additional information on projected SC>2
increases in the Southwest, showing AQCR's with projected SC>2
emission increases greater than 100,000 tpy from 1975 to 1990.
For all but two of these AQCR's, the percentage increases are 200
percent or more. The largest increases are projected for the
Dallas-Ft. Worth area (867 percent), Shreveport-Texarkana-Tyler
(765 percent), and Austin-Waco (725 percent). In terms of total
1990 emissions, southern Louisiana-southeastern Texas (788,000
tpy) and Houston-Galveston (699,000 tpy) have the highest pro-
jections. The more general trend emerging from this data is
that nearly the entire southeast half of Texas and nearly all of
Louisiana are areas subject to rapidly increasing S02 emissions.
This area is characterized by major current and projected con-
struction of coal-fired power plants and chemical plants.
Net NOX emissions from electric utilities are expected to
increase by about 25 percent by 2000. NOX emissions from coal-
fired industrial combustion are expected to increase by almost
75 percent. This may be partially offset by a net decrease from
transportation of about 50 percent (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980b, p. 7).
Net emissions of both HC and CO are expected to decrease in the
region, primarily due to transportation emission controls. HC
emissions will decrease only slightly, but CO emissions will de-
crease by about 50 percent (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980b, pp. 8-9).
B. Region 4
In 1975, Region 4 accounted for about one-fourth of the na-
tion's net particulate emissions, largely from the construction
materials industry and old (pre-1976) coal-fired utilities. By
2000, net emissions from electric utilities are expected to be 80
percent lower than in 1975 because of retirement of old utilities
and use of new controls. During this same period, net emissions
from the construction materials industry are projected to in-
crease about 50 percent, as building activities shift to the
South from the Northeast. The net result is a fairly constant
11-38
-------
Air Quality Control Region
14 Four Corners
19 Monroe-El Dorado
22 Shreveport-Texarkana-Tyler
106 Southern Louisiana-
Southeastern Texas
185 Northcentral Oklahoma
186 Northeastern Oklahoma
211 Amarillo-Lubbock
212 Austin-Waco
214 Corpus Christi-Victoria
215 Metropolitan Dallas-Ft. Worth
216 Metropolitan Houston-Galveston
217 Metropolitan San Antonio
1975
203
25
62
231
19
22
23
71
59
33
272
22
SO2
1990
324
118
536
788
145
128
175
586
177
319
699
152
% Change
60
372
765
241
663
482
656
725
200
867
157
591
Figure 11-5: Air Quality Control Regions in Region 6: AQCR's
with Projected SO2 Emission Increases Greater than
100,000 tpy, 1975-1990a
aData taken from Honea and Hillsman, 1979a, pp. 33-34.
11-39
-------
level to a slight decline in total net particulate emissions in
Region 4.
In contrast, both S02 and NOX emissions are expected to in-
crease in the region. Compared to Region 6, these increases will
be at a much slower rate. As shown in Table 11-12, SC>2 emissions
in Region 4 are projected to increase 7 percent by 1990 compared
to a 105 percent projected increase for Region 6; NOX emissions
are projected to increase by 19 percent in Region 4 and 42 per-
cent in Region 6. However, absolute emissions remain substan-
tially higher in Region 4; in 1990, SO2 emissions are projected
to be in excess of 9 million tpy compared to about 5 million tpy
in Region 6.
Figure 11-6 provides information on projected SC>2 emissions
for Region 4. The highest emissions are projected for the AQCR
of Huntington-Ashland-Portsmouth-Ironton in northeast Kentucky—
over 900,000 tpy by 1990. Large percentage increases from 1975
to 1990 are projected for the central Georgia AQCR (267 percent)
and for the Columbia (South Carolina) AQCR (248 percent).
Emissions of CO are expected to decrease in Region 4, as they
are for the rest of the nation. This largely reflects expected
decreases in emissions from transportation sources; however, if
vehicle-miles driven continue to increase, these decreases may
be offset by a total net increase in emission levels. The pulp
and paper industry is also projected to increase its importance
as a source of CO by the year 2000 unless pollution controls are
required for this industry. Projected increases range from 100
percent to 150 percent (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a, pp. 109-13).
TABLE 11-12: ANNUAL SO2 AND NOX EMISSIONS, 1975-1990
(thousands of tpy)
SO2 NO
x
Region 4 Region 6 Region 4 Region 6
1975
1990
Net Change
% Change
8,584
9,177
+ 583
7
2,483
5,103
+2,620
105
3,898
4,627
+ 729
19
2,713
3,852
+1,130
42
Source: Data taken from Honea and Hillsman (1979a, p. 33; 1979b,
pp. 33-34).
11-40
-------
5
6
52
54
56
103
200
207
Air Quality Control Region
Mobile-Pensacola-Panama City
Southern Mississippi
Southeastern Alabama
Westcentral Florida
Central Georgia
Metropolitan Atlanta
Hunt ington-Ash land-
Portsmouth- I ronton
Columbia
Eastern Tennessee-
Southwestern Virginia
1975
504
1
497
75
105
699
58
611
S02
1990
689
172
609
260
217
916
202
749
% Change
37
172
23
267
107
31
248
23
Figure 11-6: Air Quality Control Regions in Region 4: AQCR's
with Projected SC>2 Emission Increase Greater than
100,000 tpy, 1975-1990a
aData taken from Honea and Hillsman 1979b, pp. 33-35.
11-41
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11.3.2 Problems and Issues
A. Acid Deposition
Concern has increased recently over the potential effects
from the interaction of pollutants. Perhaps the most serious of
these effects is the phenomenon known as acid precipitation or
"acid rain" formed by the transformation of SOX and NOX into
acidic ions. 1 Approximately 55 million tons of SC>2 and NOX are
discharged into the air annually from man-made sources (U.S.,
EPA, Off. of Air Quality Planning and Standards, 1980c). These
pollutants can be converted into acids and return to earth in
dew, rain, snow, or dry deposition.
Research on acid precipitation has reported six potential
categories of effects (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1979):
• Acidificaiton of lakes, rivers, and ground waters
resulting in damage to fish and other components
of aquatic ecosystems;
• Acidification and release of metals from soils;
• Possible reductions in forest productivity;
• Possible damage to agricultural crops;
• Deterioration of man-made materials such as build-
ings, statuary, metal structures, and paint; and
• Possible contamination of drinking water supplies by
metals being released from soils and pipelines.
This type of evidence is preliminary. However, an expert panel
of the National Research Council has concluded that the acid rain
situation "is disturbing enough to merit prompt tightening of
restrictions on atmospheric emissions from fossil fuels and other
large sources" (NRC, 1981, p. 7).
Because of the volume of precursor pollutants (SOX and NOX),
acid precipitation has become an increasing concern, particularly
in the northcentral and northeastern U.S. Considerable portions
of the study area are also subject to such deposition, including
•'•The pH (acidity/alkalinity) scale, based on a solution's
concentration of hydrogen ions (H+), is used to determine the
strength of an acid. The scale ranges from 0 (very acidic) to 14
(very alkaline). Because the scale is logarithmic, pH 4 is 10
times more acidic than pH 5, and 100 times more acidic than pH 6,
and so on. Precipitation is defined as acidic if the pH is less
than 5.6, the pH of normal, unpolluted rain.
11-42
-------
much of Region 4. Existing research seems to suggest that the
effects of such deposition vary widely depending on local condi-
tions. Figure 11-7 indicates potential sensitivity throughout
Region 4 to acid deposition, based on soil composition. Virtu-
ally all of Region 4 is believed to be somewhat sensitive. The
worst areas appear to be central Alabama and Georgia, eastern
Tennessee, and western North Carolina. In 1979, for example,
four rains in North Carolina were measured at a pH 3.3 ( U.S.,
EPA, ORD, 1979), which is close to that of vinegar. The Char-
lotte Observer now routinely reports rain acidity on its weather
page.
Sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions from local utility and
coal industries are substantial in much of the Southeast. In ad-
dition, acidic conditions are supported by transported pollutants
--from as much as 500 miles away (Ganon, 1978). Long-range trans-
port of acidic ions has increased in recent years through ex-
panded construction of smelter and power plants with tall exhaust
stacks (U.S., NCAQ, 1981, p. 242). Initially, these tall stacks
were, for the most part, constructed to dispense pollutants wide-
ly in order to meet local ambient air quality standards. Al-
though stack heights are now encompassed in the regulatory sys-
tem, existing tall stacks continue to contribute to long-range
transport of pollutants and the likelihood of conversion with
acid deposition. Estimates by both the Department of Energy and
the Federal Aviation Administration identify the East Northcen-
tral, South Atlantic, East Southcentral and Middle Atlantic re-
gions as having the largest number of tall stacks (U.S., CEQ,
1980). The majority of the tallest (800 feet or higher) stacks
built by electric utilities are in the South Atlantic states (see
Table 11-13) which include the study area states of Florida,
Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Out of the total of
186 stacks in excess of 500 feet built by electric utilities be-
tween 1970 and 1979, 53 were in the Northcentral states, 39 were
in the South Atlantic states, and 29 in the East Southcentral
states of Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee.
Among the effects of acid deposition currently being investi-
gated, two seem particularly relevant to our study area. The
effects on forest ecosystems are a particular concern in the
Southeast, both because of plans for increased forest productiv-
ity (see Chapter 9) and the direct economic importance of the
pulp and paper industry to the study area. Although industry in
general seems to be taking a cautious view toward regulatory re-
sponses to the acid rain issue the paper industry's unique role
in the acid rain debate is indicated in the conclusion to a
"state-of-knowledge" report issued by the National Council of
the Paper Industry for Air and Stream Improvement (1981, p. 58).
On the one hand, the manufacturing facilities of the
industry emit sulfur and nitrogen oxides which are
thought to be precursors of acidic deposition. If
11-43
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4.3
4.3
M
M
I
4.6
Moderately to highly sensitive
aquatic ecosystems
Slightly to highly acid-sensitive soils
Sensitive soils and aquatic ecosystems
5.0
Figure 11-7: Sensitivity to Acid Rain
Source: U.S., EPA, ORD, 1979, p. 5.
-------
TABLE 11-13: REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF TALL STACKS BUILT BY
ELECTRIC UTILITIES, 1970-1979
Region
New Englanda
Middle Atlantic13
East Northcentralc
West Northcentrald
South AtlanticS'f
East Southcentralf '9
West Southcentralf »h
Mountain^ ' x
Pacif icf ' J
Total
>800
2
11
1
15
8
__
__
—
37
Stc
700-799
7
4
5
9
6
1
__
—
33
ick height
600-699
7
11
7
7
7
3
3
1
46
(ft)
500-599
7
5
27
5
8
8
1
4
70
Total
7
21
53
18
39
29
5
7
1
186
Source: Cramer, 1979.
alncludes Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode
Island, and Vermont.
^Includes New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania.
clncludes Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.
^Includes Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North
Dakota, and South Dakota.
elncludes Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,
Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West
Virginia.
fIncludes states in Regions 4 or 6.
^Includes Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee.
^Includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas.
1Includes Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,
and Wyoming.
JIncludes California, Oregon, and Washington.
11-45
-------
additional SOX and NOX control measures on combustion
sources are eventually mandated as a strategy to reduce
acidic deposition and its adverse effects, the industry
will bear a significant share of these control costs.
On the other hand, the industry's raw material base is
in the forest and even a slight reduction in forest pro-
ductivity as a consequence of acidic deposition would
represent a major adverse impact. At the present time
the evidence of such adverse effects is inconclusive,
but it is essential that the industry develop an infor-
mation base adequate to resolve this issue.
Research on crop forest growth has not yielded conclusive
evidence on the direct effects of acid rain; in fact, areas lack-
ing sulfates and nitrates may actually benefit from acid rain
(U.S., CEQ, 1981). However, some experts predict long-term dam-
age (Ember, 1981, p. 24). A report by the National Research
Council (1981) raises the concern that acid rain increases the
amount of toxic metals which reach water bodies. It concluded
that "there is no satisfactory technology for controlling large-
scale emissions of mercury," a metal which in acting synergisti-
cally with acid rain might cause chronic problems in specific
locations (NRG, 1981, p. 4). As indicated in Table 11-11, during
1975, over 30 percent of the nation's mercury emissions occurred
in the Southcentral states of Region 6 while between 20 and 30
percent of the mercury emissions were in Region 4.
In addition, total SOX emissions are expected to increase in
areas of central Georgia and metropolitan Atlanta, eastern Ten-
nessee near the Smokey Mountains National Park, and westcentral
Florida surrounding Tampa-St. Petersburg (see Figure 11-6). Re-
gion 6 is projected to have substantial increases in SOX emis-
sions throughout an extensive area along the Gulf Coast of Texas
and Louisiana (see Figure 11-5). Continuing research on the
causes and impacts of acid precipitation is providing information
which seems to have serious implications for the plans to in-
crease coal use in these areas (U.S., GAO, 1981).
B. Population Growth in Nonattainment Areas
The South has been growing in both metropolitan and nonmetro-
politan areas. In fact, while most of the rest of the country
has experienced declining metropolitan growth, regions 6 and 4
rank first and second in such growth (see Chapter 3). Between
1970 and 1977, 31 metropolitan areas experienced a growth rate of
at least 15 percent (see Chapter 3, Appendices) etnd many of these
grew at a rate of 25 percent or more. Of these metropolitan
areas, the 9 "high growth" areas are all in either Texas or Flor-
ida. Together, these 31 areas represented 36 percent of the tot-
al population of the study area in 1977, and growth in these
areas accounted for 54 percent of the total growth in the study
11-46
-------
area between 1970 and 1977. One of the most significant poten-
tial problems associated with such rapid population growth is
declining air quality. This is manifested through (1) the in-
creased use of motor vehicles in urbanized areas, which can lead
to deteriorating air quality through increased emissions of CO,
HC, and NOX; and (2) the clustering of population in areas, which
fail to meet the NAAQS, which represents an increased health risk
for those people. In the South, many of the high growth areas
are currently designated as nonattainment by EPA and in some in-
stances projected to remain nonattainment areas through 1982 or
1987 (40 CFR §81.301-344, 1980; U.S., NCAQ, 1981).
Ozone, formed from the interaction of HC and NOX, is con-
sidered a serious problem in almost every metropolitan area in
the country. In the Sunbelt, rapidly growing metropolitan areas
along the Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi, Texas, to Mobile, Ala-
bama, are nonattainment areas for ozone as are the high growth
areas of Albuquerque, New Mexico; El Paso, Texas; and Charlotte,
North Carolina. Trends for CO levels improved in the Birmingham,
Alabama, area but actually deteriorated between 1975 and 1979 in
Louisville, Kentucky; Charlotte, North Carolina; and Nashville,
Tennessee. Houston, Texas and Tulsa, Oklahoma continue to exper-
ience problems meeting NO2 standards (U.S., NCAQ, 1981).
Figure 11-8 shows those areas in regions 4 and 6 which are
projected to be potential nonattainment areas for ozone, CO, TSP,
and S02 in 1982 (U.S., NCAQ, 1981), Factors that affect the ac-
curacy of these projections include possible changes in the NAAQS
themselves, changes in economic and population growth trends, ex-
pansion and improvements in monitoring, or changes in institution-
al relationships and priorities.
A substantial percentage of the Region 4 population—for ex-
ample, 50 percent in Tennessee and 33 percent in Alabama—live in
nonattainment areas (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, Bur. of the Census,
1978, 1979; U.S., EPA, Region 4, 1978). As these metropolitan
areas in the Southeast continue to grow, mobile source pollution,
primarily from automobiles, is likely to increase. For example,
despite the new control systems reducing emissions from new cars,
the expected total reductions have been offset nationwide by a 30
percent increase in motor vehicle miles traveled since 1970 (U.S.,
EPA, Com. on Monitoring and Info. Mgmt., 1980); failure of vehi-
cles to meet performance and maintenance standards (U.S., NCAQ,
1981; Radian, 1980); and rapid growth of stationary source emis-
sions (U.S., NCAQ, 1981). Thus, despite expected improvement in
air quality across the nation, many areas in the study region
with large and growing populations are likely to experience in-
creased health risks from exposure to high levels of air pollu-
tants .
11-47
-------
I
4^.
03
Figure 11-8: Projected Nonattainment Areas for Regions 4 and 6
Source: U.S., NCAQ, 1981.
-------
C. Industrial Growth in the Sunbelt
The Gulf Coast of Texas, particularly in the Houston area,
has experienced rapid growth in population, industry, and energy
development over the past decade and is projected to continue as
a growth center in the future (see Chapters 3 and 4). However,
some of this expected industrial and energy development could be
limited in the future by restrictions in the Prevention of Signi-
ficant Deterioration (PSD) Program implemented by EPA under the
CAA Amendments passed by Congress in 1977.
The PSD program is intended (1) to maintain the quality of
air that was already cleaner than required by the NAAQS in order
to protect public health; (2) to limit total tonnage of pollu-
tants entering the atmosphere in order to minimize long-range
transport problems such as acid rain and impaired visibility;
(3) to protect pristine areas with aesthetic values such as parks
and wilderness from visual impairment; (4) to enable states to
compete for industry without having to use air quality as a bar-
gaining chip; and (5) to limit the degradation of clean air by
S02 and TSP on both an annual and daily basis (U.S., NCAQ, 1981).
A major part of the program is the review required prior to
construction of new and modified stationary pollution sources to
be sure that they will not significantly degrade air quality in
areas where the air is cleaner than national standards—this in-
cludes portions of the 90 percent of the nation's counties that
meet or are unclassified for TSP, the 97 percent that meet or are
unclassified for the SC>2 standard, and any areas meeting any of
the other pollutant standards (Alabama Power v. Costie, 1979).
Another major part of the program is the protection of air
quality values in three classes of PSD areas ranging from Class I
areas which protect the most pristine areas (national parks, wil-
derness areas, etc.) and allow virtually no pollution increases,
to Class III areas which essentially allow pollution up to the
NAAQS. Class I areas include those national parks and wilderness
areas mandated by Congress and other federal lands redesignated
as Class I by the Departments of Interior and Agriculture. Cur-
rently, 159 Class I areas have been designated nationwide. Fig-
ures 11-9 and 11-10 identify Class I areas in the Sunbelt. These
states have very few Class I areas in comparison to the western
U.S. where most Class I areas exist. However, in the Southeast
the two major Class I areas, the Great Smokey Mountains National
Park and the Everglades National Park, are very close to areas
with high emissions and/or nonattainment areas and thus have
already experienced problems with photochemical smog (U.S., NCAQ,
1981). In Region 6, New Mexico has nine Class I areas, which
could affect mining and other energy developments. In general,
however, the virtual absence of Class I areas throughout the rest
of the region may increase siting flexibility for industrial
growth compared to many potential locations in the western U.S.
11-49
-------
I
U1
o
1. Bandolier Wilderness
2. Bosque del Apache
WiIderness
3. Carlsbad Caverns
National Park
4. Glla WiIderness
5. Pecos Wilderness
6. Salt Creek
WiIderness
7. San Pedro Parks
WiIderness
8. Wheeler Peak
WiIderness
9. White Mountain
WiIderness
10. Guadalupe Mountains
National Park
11. Big Bend National
Park
12. Wichita Mountains
WiIderness Area
13. Caney Creek
WlIderness Area
14. Upper Buffalo
WiIderness Area
15. Breton
WlIderness Area
Figure 11-9: Class I Areas in Region 6
Source: Honea and Hillsman, 1979a;
40 CFR §81.401-437, 1980.
-------
I
Ul
1. Slpsey Wilderness
Area
2. Mammoth Cave
National Park
3. Cohutta
Wi Iderness Area
4. Joyce KiImer-Slickrock
WiIderness Area
5. Great Smoky Mountains
National Park
6. Shining Rock
Wi Iderness Area
7. Linvl I le Gorge
WI Iderness Area
8. Swanquarter
WiIderness Area
9. Cape Roma in
WiIderness Area
10. Wolf Island
WiIderness Area
11. Okefenokee
WiIderness Area
12. St. Mark's
WIIderness Area
13. Chassahowltzka
Wi Iderness Area
14. Everglades
National Park
Figure 11-10: Class I Areas in Region 4
Source: Honea and Hillsman, 1979b.
-------
Studies to date have not documented the effect of the PSD
program on interregional location decisions by industry or on
restricting energy development, but rather suggest that the
effect has been one of modifying siting choices or control strat-
egies within an area. However, Kentucky has reported that approx-
imately 8 to 10 small sources of emissions relocated across the
Ohio River (in Indiana) in part because of less stringent PSD
regulations there in comparison with their own nonattainment
regulations (Offhutt, 1980).
The effects of PSD on energy development in regions 4 and 6
have not been major to date. New Mexico, like much of the South-
west, is sensitive to the visual impact of particulates from
power plant emissions, automobile emissions, smelter emissions,
and wind-blown soil and fugitive dust from agricultural, mining
and construction activities. The Four Corners area has been of
partiular concern because of extensive energy development planned
there (see Chapter 6). The assumption of stringent controls on
emissions has led some experts to conclude that air quality will
not be a major concern. Yet considerable evidence of long-range
transport from California into that area and some inadequacies in
dispersion modelling have raised some concerns over that assump-
tion (U.S., NCAQ, 1981).
Another concern is the effect of fuel switching on air qual-
ity and as a limiting factor for industrial and energy develop-
ment in an area since different fuels alter the types and quanti-
ties of pollutants emitted. The ability of an industry to switch
fuels in response to economic factors is very important. Under
the PSD regulations, the use of different fuels required by the
Department of Energy conversion orders and nautral gas curtail-
ment plans is not considered as source of modification subject to
review (U.S., NCAQ, 1981). Although a national federal coal con-
version program has not yet been implemented, the impact of such
a program as well as voluntary, incremental conversions could
have important cumulative impacts in some regions. Energy devel-
opment in the Gulf Coast area could be limited if existing
sources convert to the higher sulfur fuels allowed under current
regulations. Such switching could result in higher levels of SC>2
emissions which would limit further energy growth in the area.
The largest SC>2 increases for Region 6 by 1990 are expected
in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area (867 percent), Shreveport-Texarkana-
Tyler (765 percent), and Austin-Waco (725 percent) (Honea &
Hillsman, 1979a). In terms of total 1990 emissions, southern
Louisiana-southeastern Texas (788,000 tpy) and Houston-Galveston
(699,000 tpy) are projected to have the highest levels of SC>2.
Contributing to this dramatic projected increase in emissions for
SO2, as well as NOX/ TSP, and volatile organic compounds, are the
plans for multiple energy development. This includes mining of
lignite and lignite power production throughout the lignite belt
of Southeast Texas (see Chapter 6), uranium mining, and
11-52
-------
substantial increases in chemical production and coal-fired
industrial combustion. Houston has already begun to participate
in an emission offset banking program in order to facilitate
planning and provide more certainty for industries wanting to
locate there or expand existing facilities. The chemical indus-
try decreased its nonmethane HC emissions between 1974 and 1978
by 34 percent. However, rapid source growth in the chemical and
other industries resulted in an overall absolute growth in HC,
NOX, and SC>2 emissions. Thus, while PSD regulations themselves
are not expected to limit growth, air quality concerns can be
expected to shape the character and rate of growth in areas like
the southeast and Gulf Coast areas of Texas which are experien-
cing relatively rapid development of increased pollution sources
like fuel combustion plants, chemical producers, and vehicles
(U.S., NCAQ, 1981)
11.4 SUMMARY
Like much of the nation, the Sunbelt has experienced some suc-
cesses in improving its air quality. Moreover, both the South-
east and Southwest have air quality which generally is good in
comparison to that in the heavily industrialized northeastern and
northcentral states. The changes occurring throughout the Sun-
belt raise a number of concerns about future air quality prob-
lems, as summarized in Table 11-14.
In contrast to the national trend of decreasing levels of SOX
emissions, the southeastern Gulf Coast areas of Texas could con-
tinue to experience increasing SOX emissions because of rapidly
increasing industrialization and switching to coal from oil or
natural gas by existing industrial facilities. This upward trend
is from a relatively low base, since all of Region 6 contributed
only 9 percent to the national total SOX emissions in 1978. How-
ever, the area of Texas in which much of this growth is occurring
already contributes over one-half of the total SOX emissions in
Region 6. Thus, air quality regulations may require increasing
attention to siting choices and control strategies in the future.
The Ohio River Basin especially with its substantial number
of coal-fired power plants is of particular concern for both SOX
emissions and TSP. The Basin contributes to local nonattainment
problems and, under specific meteorological conditions, is be-
lieved to contribute significantly to long-range transport prob-
lems in parts of the Southwest and the Southeast. Texas and
Louisiana could also contribute increasing air pollutant loads to
the Southeast when southwesterly winds prevail.
Long-range transport of pollution is receiving increasing at-
tention. Of particular concern are hydrocarbons and nitrogen ox-
ides which contribute to ozone, and sulfur dioxide which can be
11-53
-------
TABLE 11-14: PROBLEM CHARACTERIZATION MATRIX: AIR QUALITY
I
ui
Impact or Causal Type of Prob-
Problem Factors lem Created
• Acid • Industrial • Ecological
deposition growth and
fuel • Economic
switching
• Energy
development
• Meteoro-
1 og I ca 1
conditions
. Sensitivity
of terres-
trial and
aquatic eco-
systems
• Tal 1 stacks
• Population • Rapid • Human health
growth In growth In
non- metropol- • Ecological
attainment Itan areas
areas • Economic
• Increasing
number of • Aesthetic
vehlcle-
ml les
dr I ven
• Loca 1 air
dispersion
patterns
Duration
• This Is a long- •
term problem
expected to
worsen In the
future If SOX
and NOX emis-
sions are not
adequately
contro 1 1 ed
• This Is both
a current and
long-term
problem. The
number of vio-
lations for
some criteria
pol lutants Is
decreasing.
However, ozone
(photochemical
smog) seems to
be particularly
resistant to
control efforts.
Pervasiveness
Most of the
Southeast, es-
pecial ly the
Carol Inas, Ala-
bama, Georgia,
Mississippi,
Tennessee, Loui-
siana, and the
Gu 1 f Coast area
of Texas are
bel leved to be
vulnerable to
the effects of
acid deposition.
Loca 1 1 zed de-
pend Ing on the
major sources
of emissions.
Ozone Is the
most pervasive
problem, espe-
cially In large
cities such as
Houston, Nash-
vllle, Charlotte,
Atlanta, Louls-
v 1 1 1 e , etc .
Magnitude/
Seriousness
•• The problem Is
not as severe at
present time In
the Sunbelt as
It Is In the
northeastern
U.S. and In
Canada. Effects
are not ful ly
understood but
Include poten-
tial damage to
lakes, forests,
and crops.
Human health
effects are not
known.
• Human health
effects are not
comp 1 ete ! y
known. However,
violations of
standards seem
to occur most
frequently near
urban areas
where the con-
centration of
the populatlon-
at-rlsk Is
greater .
o Costs of con-
trol 1 Ing pol-
lutants can be
expens 1 ve .
Pol Icy Problems
• Because of the role of
long-range transport of
pollutants In contribut-
ing to acid deposition,
Intergovernmental coop-
eration will be necces-
sary. This has become
an International policy
Issue.
• Regulatory responses
will be particularly dif-
ficult to formulate In
the midst of current
uncertainty.
• Regulatory strategies and
the basic law setting
forth the framework for
NAAQS are undergoing con-
siderable debate and at
least some revision
creating uncertainty
both for those try I ng to
meet the standards and
those trying to enforce
the standards.
(continued)
-------
TABLE 11-14: (continued)
I
en
Impact or Causal Type of Prob-
Problem Factors lem Created Duration
• Constraints • Industrial • Economic • A current and
on expansion long-term prob-
Industrlal and fuel • Human lem because of
growth switching health scientific un-
certainties
• Energy and regulatory
development problems
• Local air
dispersion
patterns
• Rapid new
source of
growth
. PSD
classification
• Technological
constraints
Pervasiveness
• Rapid new source
growth and Industry
expansion seems to
be concentrating
particularly along
the Gulf Coast.
• S02 and TSP viola-
tions continue to
be a problem espe-
cial ly around the
large coal -fired
power plants In
Florida, Kentucky,
and Tennessee. TSP
continue to be a
problem In the Ohio
River Basin area of
Kentucky, Tennessee,
and much of Region 6.
• Impacts of hazardous
emissions are usually
very local I zed, al-
though the extent of
local exposure Is
considered widespread
I n the Southeast and
Southwest because of
the emissions of
trace metals and sus-
pected carcinogens by
a variety of
industries.
Magnitude/
Seriousness
• Siting choices
and control
strategies may
need to be modi-
fied, thus crit-
ical ly affecting
industry costs.
• Hazardous sub-
stances are pai —
ticularly serious
because of their
suspected carcino-
gen I c I ty . There-
fore, even though
fewer peop 1 e are
exposed, the ef-
fects are be-
1 ieved to be
much more seri-
ous than from
the criteria
pol lutants.
Moreover, In the
case of organic
chemicals and
trace metals,
the effects are
usual ly latent
and possibly
Irreversible.
Po 1 1 cy Prob 1 ems
• The regulations,
as they stand, are
extremely complex
and difficult to
understand or
Interpret.
• Some PSD regula-
tions have been
cumbersome to im-
plement and could
be better coordi-
nated with other
air qual Ity regu-
lations and goals.
• The large number
of potential ly
hazardous pol lu-
tants and the lack
of scientific cei —
tainty In estab-
lishing causal
relationships be-
tween the specific
substances and
human health
effects makes the
regu 1 atory process
of Identifying and
screening diffi-
cult.
-------
transformed into particulate sulfates and is a precursor of acid
deposition. The acid deposition issue is controversial in both
the scientific and political sense. While consensus exists that
acid deposition is occurring as a result of transport and inter-
action of air pollutants, the extent, rate and timing of these
processes are not completely understood. Most of Region 4 and
the southeastern edge of Region 6 along the Gulf Coast are be-
lieved to be sensitive to acid deposition; thus, the Sunbelt may
have increasing problems with forestry and agricultural produc-
tion as well as wetlands preservation.
Hazardous pollutants, primarily those known as volatile or-
ganic compounds, also appear to be an increasing source of con-
cern, especially in the Gulf Coast areas of Texas and Louisiana
where the chemical and petroleum industries are expected to in-
crease production levels in the future. To date, very few of
these pollutants have been regulated, yet the potential effects
of concentrations of these pollutants can be very serious for
human health.
Growth and development in the Sunbelt has not been signifi-
cantly restricted by air quality regulations to date. However,
areas such as southern Florida, the Ohio River Basin area in Ken-
tucky, counties in Tennessee and Alabama with large coal-fired
electric generation and industrial plants, and the Gulf Coast
area of Texas and port areas of Louisiana may find it increasing-
ly necessary to use innovative regulatory programs to meet exist-
ing air quality standards. Cumulative population growth in these
areas will increase the number of people at risk as well as the
local mobile source emissions problem. Increasing industrializa-
tion and energy development will affect the potential interaction
of pollutants and continue to raise air quality concerns for the
future.
11-56
-------
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Aerometric and Emissions Reporting System. Research Triangle
Park, N.C.: U.S., EPA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards. 1980c. National Air
Pollution Emission Estimates 1970-1978. As cited in U.S.,
National Commission on Air Quality. 1981. To Breathe Clean
Air, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office, p. 285.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Air
Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, North
Carolina. January 1981. Written communication. As cited in
U.S., National Commission on Air Quality. 1981. To Breathe
Clean Air, Final Report. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, p. 79.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research
and Development (ORD). 1979. Research Summary; Acid Rain.
Washington, D.C.: EPA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research
and Development (ORD). 1980a. Environmental Outlook 1980.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research
and Development (ORD), Office of Strategic Assessment and
Special Studies. 1980b. "Environmental Outlook 1975-2000,
Region VI." Unpublished paper.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Region 4. 1978.
Southeast Environmental Profiles, 1977. Atlanta, Ga: U.S.,
EPA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Regional Offices.
October 1980. Information received by Commission staff in
telephone communication. As cited in U.S., Natonal Commis-
sion on Air Quality. 1981. To Breathe Clean Air, Final
Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, p.
114.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Regional Offices,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards and Office of
Planning and Management. February 1981. Information on air
quality levels and trends in draft environmental profiles and
the National Data Bank. As cited in U.S., National Commis-
sion on Air Quality. 1981. To Breathe Clean Air, Final Re-
port. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, p. 114.
11-60
-------
U.S., General Accounting Office (GAO), Comptroller General. 1981
The Debate Over Acid Precipitation; Opposing Views, Status
of Research. Gaithersburg, Md.: U.S., GAO.
U.S., National Commission on Air Quality (NCAQ). 1981. To
Breathe Clean Air, Final Report. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
11-61
-------
I
-------
APPENDIX 11-B: COMPARISON OF POLLUTION STANDARD INDEX
I
a\
OJ
Index
Value
-5OO--
-400 —
-300—
Air
Quality
Level
Significant
Harm
— Emergency —
Warning
Pollutant Levels
TSP
(24-hr.),
ug/m3
1,000
875
625
S02
(24-hr.),
ng/m3
2,620
—2,100
1,6OO—
CO
(B-hr.),
ug/m3
57.5
—46.0
34.0
°3
(1-hr.),
ug/m3
--1,200—
— 1,OOO
800—
NO2
ug/m3
3,750—
3,000 —
2,260—
Health
Effect
Descriptor
- Hazardous -
Very
Unhealthful
Unhealthful
General Health
Effects
Premature death of
ill and elderly.
Healthy people will
experience adverse
symptoms that affect
their normal acti-
vity.
certain diseases in
addition to signifi-
cant aggravation of
symptoms and de-
creased exercise
persons .
Significant aggrava-
tion of symptoms and
decreased exercise
with heart or lung
disease, with wide-
spread symptoms in
the healthy
population.
Mild aggravation of
symptoms in suscep-
tible persons , with
irritation symptoms
in the healthy popu-
lation.
Cautionary
Statements
All persons should
remain Indoors,
keeping windows and
doors closed . Al 1
persons should mini-
mize physical exer-
tion and avoid
traffic.
Elder ly and persons
with existing
diseases should stay
indoors and avoid
physical exertion.
Genera 1 popu la t ion
should avoid outdoor
activity.
-_——__ — .,..__,__,.
Elderly and persons
with existing heart
or lung disease
should stay indoors
and reduce physical
activity.
Persons with exist-
ing heart or respir-
atory ailments
shou Id reduce phys-
ical exertion and
outdoor activity.
— 1OO Mil art e *>cn t£K inn i an v.
1
en en* -.e UK >n>-< icC ortf* C n nn k. ' _f
— jw* iji nruiija
1 1 1
1
Good |
1
— *—• 1 • • f _.---.. — I I—_ 1 .
Source* U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), "Guidelines for Public Reporting of Dally Air Quality-Pollution Standard
Index."
*4OO ug/m3 was used instead of the 03 Alert Level of 20O ug/m3.
^No index values reported at concentration levels below those specified by "Alert Level" criteria.
cAnnual primary NAAOS.
-------
APPENDIX 11-C: PARTICULATE EPISODE CRITERIA
Episode Stage
Forecast of watch
Alert
Warning
Emergency
Conditions
Issuance of an Air Stagnation Advisory
by National Weather Service
Suspended particulate levels of 375
ug/m^ (24-hr avg) plus meteorological
predictions that conditions will
remain unchanged or worsen during the
next 12 hours
Suspended particulate levels of 625
/ug/m^ (24-hr avg) plus meteorological
predictions that conditions will
remain unchanged or worsen during the
next 12 hours
Suspended particulate levels of 875
jag/m^ (24-hr avg) plus meteorological
predictions that conditions will
remain unchanged or worsen during the
next 12 hours
Source: Abstracted from 40 CFR 51.
11-64
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CHAPTER 12
LAND AND COASTAL ZONE USE
HIGHLIGHTS
• Status and Trends
1. Coastal zone water pollution has improved dramatically
in several Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast bays and
estuaries such as Charleston Bay, Escambia Bay and
Perdido Bay. Further improvement in industrial and
municipal discharges will continue to enhance the quality
of coastal waters.
2. Increases in trade and the development of offshore
resources have contributed to the industrialization of
the coastal zone. The major port areas of Houston, New
Orleans, Tampa, and Jacksonville are examples of this
growth. Anticipated increases in the grain exports and
in the chemical, textile, and paper industries of the
Southeast also suggest further industrialization.
3. Marine fisheries are affected by the quality of the
coastal environment and the intensity of human utiliza-
tion. The Gulf Coast white shrimp fishery, for example,
has been depleted by coastal pollution, salt water in-
trusion, and by reduction in nursery grounds by dredging
and landfills. Despite increased fishing effort, the
harvest of the resource has declined.
4. The U.S. Soil Conservation Service inventory of 1977
showed that cropland in some parts of the study area has
soil erosion rates well above the national average; Ten-
nessee cropland loses topsoil at an average rate of 14
tons per acre per year, and Alabama and Mississippi each
also lose more than twice the national average of 4 tons
per acre per year. In spite of increased use of Best
Management Practices for soil conservation, total erosion
is expected to continue to increase as more marginal and
retired croplands are put into production.
5. More than 13 million acres of agricultural land were con-
verted to urban uses in the Sunbelt since 1967. This
trend will continue with the predicted acceleration of
urban growth throughout much of the Sunbelt.
12-i
-------
6. Coal mining within the study area is expected to increase,
with particularly rapid development in the Texas lignite
fields. Increased coal production will cause local agri-
cultural land use changes during mining arid reclamation.
Geographic Areas
7. Depletion of ground water in the high plains will lead
to crop changes (e.g., corn or sorghum to wheat) and land
use changes (e.g., cropland to rangeland) in the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles.
8. Land use conflicts are likely to be most intense along
the Gulf Coast and in the Appalachian region of Kentucky
and Tennessee. Coastal areas where issues are likely to
be most intense include southern Florida and northern
parts of the Gulf Coast, particularly those of Louisiana,
the Mobile Bay area, and the north central Texas coast.
In Kentucky and Tennessee, energy, forest, agriculture,
wildlife, and waste disposal issues have already arisen.
9. In New Mexico complex land use issues involve strip
mining of coal and uranium, and changes in irrigated
agriculture, many of which are related to problems of
water availability and Indian rights. Other concerns
are overgrazing and erosion on fragile semiarid and
arid range.
• Key Problems and Issues
10. Demands for greater agricultural production may result
in drainage and clearing of land in the study area. Most
of this potential cropland is now in pasture, rangeland,
forest, or wetlands. Intensified management of these new
croplands may increase concerns over erosion, pollution
of waters by agricultural chemicals, sedimentation, and
loss of natural habitat.
11. Siting of certain types of new facilities will continue
to be a difficult policy issue. Controversy over the
location of new energy facilities, industrial operations
generating hazardous wastes, and new dumps and disposal
sites, will increase in many parts of the Sunbelt. An
example of such controversy is the recent debate over the
new hazardous waste treatment plant in the New Orleans
area.
12-ii
-------
12. Nonpoint source pollution is a significant problem for
much of the study area. Eighty-seven percent of south-
central and 61 percent of southeastern watershed basins
are affected by agricultural nonpoint source pollution.
This causes decreased land productivity, sediment accu-
mulation in lakes, wetlands, and waterways, and pol-
lution of waters by agricultural chemicals. Although
recent policies have been developed to decrease nonpoint
source pollution, increased demands for agricultural and
silvicultural production will mean that this problem is
likely to be magnified in the Sunbelt.
12-iii
-------
CHAPTER 12
LAND AND COASTAL ZONE USE
12.1 INTRODUCTION
The southern region is richly endowed with a diversity of
environments reflecting the varied topography and climate from
east to west. The region is especially rich in wetlands (coastal
marshes, riverine marshes, bottomland hardwoods, etc.)—nearly
half of the nation's wetlands are located in the Southeast.
About one-third of the southern region is now classified as de-
veloped (urban-industrial or agricultural). Two-thirds is class-
ified as natural ecosystems, variously affected by timbering,
grazing, recreation, and other uses. A small percentage of the
region is in public ownership, including national and state
parks, national forests, and wildlife refuges.
Recent population and industrial growth in the southern re-
gions together with changing agricultural patterns has contri-
buted to many concerns about the use of these land resources.
These concerns include land reclamation practices, management
of farmland and forests, and protection of wildlife and wetlands.
As development continues, competition among alternative land uses
is likely to intensify.
The following section (12.2) describes the regulatory setting
affecting land use and management issues and inventories current
patterns of land and coastal zone use. Section 12.3 describes
existing issues and trends related to forest, agriculture, coast-
al, and wetlands management. Land use concerns also include the
consequences of growing industrialization, particularly mining,
and the collective effects of development on wildlife and endan-
gered species. A final section (12.4) summarizes the key land
use impacts and concerns.
12.2 EXISTING CONDITIONS
12.2.1 The Regulatory System
This section summarizes federal legislation affecting land
use and includes a few examples of state legislation. The vari-
ous local land-use controls such as zoning ordinances
12-1
-------
administered through county or city governments are not included
in this summary.
The major federal laws affecting surface uses of lands are
shown in Table 12-1. Regarding the use of federal lands, this
legislation requires detailed evaluation and long-term planning
by the Departments of Interior and Agriculture. For state and
private lands, controls on development of selected land areas are
required; for example, the Coastal Zone Management Acts and the
Endangered Species Acts protect some land use values and prohibit
uses that could infringe on protected values. In other areas,
land-use management is done cooperatively; the federal role in
wildlife and agricultural development is carried out on a cooper-
ative basis with state government agencies through the Fish and
Wildlife Service and the Soil Conservation Service.
The Wilderness Acts of 1964 and 1978 and the Wild and Scenic
Rivers Act of 1972 identify areas that merit preservation for
their natural or aesthetic qualities. Other laws require or en-
courage the development of management plans for utilization of
land and marine resources. The Ocean Dumping Act of 1972, the
Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act of 1972, and
the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 were passed to enhance
or maintain the quality of coastal environments and oceans.
The Coastal Zone Management Act provides a financial frame-
work for states to develop comprehensive coastal management
plans. In addition, seven states in the Sunbelt have enacted
their own legislation controlling the use of their coastal areas
(Table 12-2). The forest and rangeland planning and management
acts require federal agencies administering the nation's forest
and range lands to devise a management program that allows for
multiple use. The Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act
(1977) was passed in response to the growing concern over dimin-
ishing energy reserves and the increasing reliance on surface
mined coal to meet the nation's energy demands. The law re-
stricts mining from some prime agricultural lands, requires re-
clamation of surface mined land, provides funds for restoration
of old strip mines, and prohibits certain types of environmental
degradation caused by coal extraction.
The Endangered Species Conservation Act passed in 1969 and
strengthened in 1973 was designed to protect threatened and en-
dangered species and habitat that is critical to their survival.
Some states also have passed legislation regulating nonfederal
activities that may affect endangered species and their habitat
(Table 12-2).
Florida has one of the most comprehensive land use-control
programs, based on legislation passed since 1967 (Table 12-3).
Although Florida has a strong incentive to protect its natural
resources which are an important asset to the state's economy,
12-2
-------
TABLE 12-1: FEDERAL STATUTES REGULATING SURFACE USES
Federal Statutes
Jurisdiction
Selected Protective Provisions
Sot I and Water Resources
Conservation Act of 1977
Surface Mining Control
and Reclamation Act of
1977
Federal Land Policy
Management Act of 1976
National Forest Manage-
ment Act of 1976
Endangered Species Acts
of 1969 and 1973
Coastal Zone Management
Act of 1972
Marine Protection,
Research, and Sanctuaries
Act of 1972
Ocean Dumping Act of 1972
Wild and Scenic Rivers
Act of 1972
Wilderness Acts of 1964
and 1978
Protection of Bald and
Golden Eagle Act
of 1962
Fish and Wildlife Act of
1956 (16 U.S.C. 742-754)
Soil Conservation Act
of 1935
Nationwide through Depart-
ment of Agriculture (USDA)
Nationwide through Depart-
ment of Interior (DOI)
Public lands under Bureau
of Land Management (BLM)
jurisdiction
National Forest and Grass-
lands under USDA
Nationwide to selected areas
of critical habitat deter-
mined by the DOI
The coastal zone as defined
by states
Nationwide marine lands,
DOI
Nationwide marine environ-
ments, Department of
Transportation
Selected stream segments
protected by DOI
Identification of public lands
for limited access by DOI
Nationwide protection of
eagles through DOI
Nationwide cooperation with
states and enforcement of
U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service
Nationwide, supported by the
USDA
Develops a program of soil
water quality protection
and
Establishes reclamation standards
and procedures for coal
Establishes multiple use and sus-
tained yield criteria and compre-
hensive planning
Requires comprehensive assessment
and planning for forests and
rangeland
Prohibits federal development on
areas Identified as critical to
endangered species
Establishes planning and permit-
ting procedure for public and
private coastal lands
Establishes provisions for
setting aside marine lands
Controls dumping In the marine
environment, prohibits disposal of
specific wastes
Identifies and preserves streams
for selected recreational uses
Prohibits development on selected
public lands
Prohibits destruction of eagles
Develops policies and procedures
for fisheries and wlIdlIfe
resources
Establishes local conservation
districts and technical support
12-3
-------
TABLE 12-2: SUMMARY OF STATE REGULATIONS PROTECTING CRITICAL
HABITATS AND ENDANGERED SPECIES
Coastal Areas
Tidal Nontidal Flood- Endangered Other Than
Location Wetlands Wetlands plains Species Wetlands
Region 4
Alabama + +
Florida + + +
Georgia + + +
Kentucky + +
Mississippi
North
Carolina + + +
South
Carolina + + +
Tennessee +
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana +
New Mexico +
Oklahoma +
Texas + + +
+ States which have passed legislation to control use of critical
habitats.
Source: Council of State Governments, 1980.
a major emphasis has been to eliminate duplication, provide co-
ordination and avoid delay in licensing and permitting. Most of
the implementation and enforcement of environmental quality and
land-use laws are vested in one agency, the Florida Department
of Environmental Regulation.
12.2.2 Ecosystem Types
Regions 4 and 6 include diverse environments and ecosystems,
ranging from mangrove islands in Florida to eastern deciduous
12-4
-------
TABLE 12-3: SELECTED LEGISLATION ON LAND USE AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONTROLS IN FLORIDA
Date
1967
1970
1972
1973
1974
1975
1977
1978
1979
Legislation
Licensing requirements for the use of state lands, with
special emphasis on biological features; Florida Air and
Water Pollution Control Act.
Establishment of Coastal Coordinating Council; Pollutant
Spill Prevention and Control Act; Coastal Construction
Setback Line Act.
The Florida Environmental Land and Water Management Act;
The Florida Water Resources Act; the Florida State
Comprehensive Planning Act.
Florida Electrical Power Plant Siting Act.
Florida Resource Recovery and Management Act.
Local Government Comprehensive Planning Act; Florida
Aquatic Preserve Act.
Florida Safe Drinking Water Act.
Florida Coastal Management Act.
Florida Industrial Siting Act.
Source: Adapted from Florida Department of Environmental
Regulation, 1980.
forests and mesquite brush lands in New Mexico. Figure 12-1
shows the distribution of major natural ecosystem types, each
type is described briefly in Table 12-4.
A. Forest and Rangeland
The U.S. Forest Service categorizes natural ecosystems found
within the Sunbelt as either forest or rangeland. Land stocked
with at least 10 percent forest trees is considered to be forest
land, while land with less than 10 percent forest trees is con-
sidered to be rangeland (USDA, Forest Service, 1980).
12-5
-------
NJ
I
2210 Deciduous forest
2310 Coastal plain forest
2320 Mixed forest
2510 Prairie parkland
2520 Prairie brushland
2530 Tall grass prairie
3113 Short grass prairie
M3113 Rocky Mountain forest
M3130 Upper Gila Mountain forest
3140 Mexican Highlands shrub steppe
P3142 Colorado Plateau
3210 Chihuahuan Desert
4110 Everglades
Figure 12-1: Natural Ecoregions of the Sunbelt
Source: Daily, 1978.
-------
TABLE 12-4: MAJOR NATURAL ECOSYSTEM TYPES IN THE SOUTHERN REGION
Type
Location
Summary Description
to
I
Deciduous
forest
(2210)
Coastal
plain
forest
(2310)
Mixed
forest
(2320)
Prairie
parkland
(2510)
Prairie
brush I and
(2520)
Tall grass
prairie
(2530)
Short grass
pratrte
(3113)
Various
(3210)
Everglades
(4110)
North Arkansas,
Kentucky, Tennessee,
and parts of Alabama,
Mississippi, and
Georgia
The Mississippi River
Valley, most of
Florida, and southern
Alabama, Mississippi,
and Georgia
North Carolina, South
CarolIna, and central
Mississippi, Alabama,
and Georgia
Eastern Oklahoma
and Texas
Central Texas
Central Oklahoma
Eastern New Mexico,
and the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles
West Texas and
New Mexico
Southern Florida
Land Is mostly rolling, except In Appalachla where local relief may be 3,000 feet.
Precipitation (35 to 60 inches) Is adequate all year and soils are good, having lots of
humus. Much of the deciduous forest has been logged and pines have come In as secondary
growth.
The coastal plain area Is flat or gently sloping, with numerous marshes, swamps, and
lakes, and receives 40 to 60 Inches of rain per year. Soils are mostly wet, acidic, and
low In plant nutrients. Sandy uplands have slash and loblolly pines and evergreen oaks,
and bald cypress Is found In wetlands.
The area has many marshes, swamps, lakes, and slow-moving streams.
dominated by subcllmax pine forest.
Most up Iands are
A mixture of grassland and oak-hickory forest on gently rolling plains. Soils are
relatively good.
These are arid grasslands with scattered mesqulte, short oaks, and junipers.
These are rolling plains. In spite of the real possibility of drought, most of the area
of dr Is now cultivated because soils are fertile. Thus, little of the original
vegetatIon remaIns.
Soils are exposed, have a small humus content, and are often shallow.
A variety of ecoregions ranging from the arid Chihuahuan Desert In the South where water
Is extremely limited and soils are poorly developed, to the Colorado Plateau and Rocky
Mountain regions at high elevations, where vegetation Is controlled by altitude.
Swamps and marshes on extensive flat marl and limestone areas covered with a few feet of
muck and a little sand. Some of this area is protected In the National Park, but other
parts are threatened by widespread drainage and development.
-------
Grasslands, savannas, deserts, shrublands, tundra, alpine vegeta-
tion, the coastal marshes, and wet meadows discussed in the fol-
lowing section are all classified as rangeland.
Rangeland and forest together account for 63 percent of the
land in the southern region as compared to 69 percent in the U.S.
(USDA, Forest Service, 1980). Wetlands constitute about 9 per-
cent of the total land area in the Sunbelt, compared to about 3
percent in the entire U.S. (U.S., DOI, FWS, 1956). Little ele-
vated (upland) rangeland exists in Region 4, but rangeland is
nearly twice as extensive as forest in Region 6.
Western Texas and southern New Mexico are part of the Chihua-
huan Desert, where water is extremely limited. Northwards in the
Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, once vast and rolling short grass
high plains, are now rangeland, wheat operations, and irrigated
feed grains operations. Since the Ogallala aquifer is declining
(see Chapter 13) this area may experience large changes in agri-
cultural land use during the next few decades.
Central Oklahoma and central Texas are prairie. In Oklahoma
this is very fertile wheat and rangeland. Eastern Oklahoma and
eastern Texas support a mixture of prairie and oak-hickory for-
est, much of which is abandoned cropland.
Northern Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee are characterized
by rolling and hilly land which was originally covered by eastern
deciduous forest, e.g., maples, hickories, oaks, and beech. Much
of the deciduous forest has been logged and pines have come in as
secondary growth. Large areas in private ownership have been
cleared of hardwoods and converted to pine plantations for the
lumber and pulp and paper industries.
A broad band of the study area, including most of Mississippi
eastward and north through North Carolina, plus parts of Arkansas,
Texas, and Louisiana, is uplands and coastal plains covered by
southeastern mixed forest. This area was once the largest pro-
ducer of cotton in the country. The region also has numerous
lakes, swamps, and slow moving streams which are important wild-
life habitat.
Finally, the Mississippi River Valley, most of Florida, and
southern parts of adjacent states are outer coastal plain forest
on flat and gently sloping wetlands and sandy uplands. This fer-
tile land has been drained in many areas for agricultural pur-
poses, e.g., soybeans in Arkansas, and now supports sugarcane and
orchards as well as field crops.
12-8
-------
B. Coastal Areas and Wetlands
Wetlands are highly productive ecosystems which provide habi-
tat for many kinds of wildlife and play an important role in the
hydrologic cycle. In 1956, 71 percent of the wetland acreage in
the U.S. was located in the Sunbelt (Table 12-5). Wetlands con-
stituted 15 percent of the area of Region 4 and 9 percent of the
Sunbelt as a whole.-'- Half of Florida and a third of Louisiana
were wetland at that time. Wetland acreages are about equally
divided among coastal, riverine, and other marshes (which are
classified as rangeland by the Forest Service) and swamp forests
and bottomland hardwoods (also classified as forest by the Forest
Service). A large percentage of southern wetlands have been con-
verted to agricultural and other uses by draining and diking.
A comprehensive description of the coastal region of the
southern states is provided in the National Estuarine Assessment
conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (U.S., DOI, FWS,
1970). Although development has intensified since the assessment
was conducted, it provides a categorization of the coastal zone as
summarized below for the South Atlantic Coast, southern Florida,
and Gulf Coast zones. An evaluation of the U.S. coastal zone is
also being conducted by the Fish and Wildlife Service (U.S., DOI,
FWS, 1979a). These estuarine wetland areas of the United States
have been modified by urban, industrial, and transportation
activities. The degree of modification is indicated for the three
zones in Table 12-6.
1. South Atlantic Estuarine Zone2
This zone extends from North Carolina southward to Fort Laud-
erdale, Florida (Figure 12-2). Estuaries and embayments lie be-
hind a nearly continuous barrier of islands which are typical of
the South Atlantic Coast. Tidal marshes and wetlands extend in-
land almost the width of the coastal plain along some streams.
Swamps such as Okefenokee, Dismal, and many lesser ones are lo-
cated inland from the extensive tidal marshes. Pollution and
land occupation have degraded a few estuaries, but most are in
good condition.
A variety of estuarine-dependent fish are abundant in the
South Atlantic Zone. Spotted sea trout, bluefish, striped bass,
and freshwater largemouth bass are popular with sport fishermen,
and shrimp, menhaden, crabs, and oysters provide large commercial
-*-1956 data represent the most recent completed survey. Cur-
rently the National Wetlands Inventory is providing a comprehen-
sive update.
2Modified from U.S., DOI, FWS, 1970.
12-9
-------
TABLE 12-5: WETLAND AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN REGION, 1956
(in thousands of acres)
Location Wetland Acreage Percent of State Acreage
Region 4
Alabama 1,598 5
Florida 17,185 50
Georgia 5,920 16
Kentucky 273 1
Mississippi 2,589 9
North Carolina 4,055 13
South Carolina 3,377 18
Tennessee 828 3
Total 35,825 15
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt
Northeast
U.S.
3,785
9,647
49
280
3,741
17,502
53,327
1,674
74,439
11
34
<1
<1
2
5
9
1
3
Source: U.S., DOI, FWS, 1956.
yields. Waterfowl, shorebirds, and marsh birds of many northern
U.S. (and Canadian) species winter in the expanses of wetlands
in this zone.
The South Atlantic Zone is well known for its warm, moist
climate due to its proximity to the Gulf Stream. The extensive
beaches from Florida to North Carolina are valued for their rec-
reational qualities.
12-10
-------
TABLE 12-6: COASTAL ZONE MODIFICATION
Degree of Modificationa
(percent)
Biogeographic Zone*3
Slight
Moderate
Severe
South Atlantic
Biscayne and Florida Bay
Gulf of Mexico
United States
36
50
15
27
60
50
51
50
4
0
34
23
Source: Field evaluation carried out by Fish and Wildlife
Service personnel during course of Estuary Protection Act study
(U.S., DOI, FWS, 1970).
aEstuaries in the coastal zone were individually rated. The
percentage refers to the proportion of these individual areas
that were rated as indicated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service. The rating represents a summary of the degree of use
and impact by 15 major use categories and 17 impact categories.
The 15 major use categories are:
Agriculture & forestry Mining (including oil)
Commercial fishing Pest control
Defense Power production
Fish & wildlife conser- Recreation
vation & management Research & education
Industry Sanctuaries
Transportation
Urbanization
Waste disposal
Water supply
(including
ground water)
Seventeen major impact sources were rated as to their severity
of impact on fish, wildlife, recreation, and aesthetic values.
These major impact sources are:
Oil pollution
Thermal pollution
Sewage pollution
Industrial waste
Agricultural waste
Pesticide pollution
Solid waste disposal
Divert tributary freshwater
Modify tidal exchange
Mining
Channel dredging &
spoiling
Bulkhead, dredge & fill
Seawalls, dikes & levees
Saltwater barriers
Coastal freshwater storage
Ditch & drain wetlands
River control
see the maps and description of each zone that follow.
12-11
-------
1. Wilmington, N.C.
2. Charleston, S.C.
3. Savannah, Ga.
4. Jacksonville, Fla.
5. St. Augustine, Fla.
6. Daytona Beach, Fla.
7. West Palm Beach, Fla
8. Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.
ESTUARINE AREAS
W Severely modified
kSl Moderately modified
LJ Relatively unmodified
Figure 12-2: South Atlantic Coastal Area
Source: U.S., DOI, FWS, 1970 p. 36.
12-12
-------
2. Biscayne and Florida Bay Estuarine Zone-*-
This small zone extends from Fort Lauderdale around the tip
of Florida inside the Florida Keys to Cape Romano (Figure 12-3).
It includes Biscayne Bay, the western edge of the Everglades,
and the Keys. The entire coast is barely above sea level. The
zone is enclosed by the Keys on the east and south and is mainly
within the Everglades National Park.
Coral reefs and mangrove swamps are common. Seasonal and
long-term droughts and tropical storms cause occasional stresses.
Municipal water use has intensified droughts, and discharges to
receiving waters and wetland occupation have modified some areas.
This zone is the nursery of a large and important shrimp
fishery. It also is highly productive of many important finfish,
including tarpon, snook, spotted sea trout, pompano, and others,
as well as crabs and spiny lobster. Oysters grow on the roots of
the zone's abundant mangrove forest. Like other coastal areas,
this zone is occupied by several rare and endangered species.
For example, the Florida great white heron, Florida manatee (sea
cow), southern bald eagle, Caribbean monk seal, Cape Sable spar-
row, Key deer, and other species are on the endangered species
list. The aesthetic attractions of the zone are known widely
including the coral reef underwater gardens.
3. Gulf of Mexico Estuarine Zone^
This zone extends around the Gulf Coast from Cape Romano in
southwest Florida to the Texas-Mexico border near Brownsville
(Figure 12-3). The entire zone borders a wide coastal plain of
generally low relief. The dominant and unique estuarine feature
is the Mississippi River Delta with its vast area and network of
channels and bayous. Notable also are the industrialized Tampa,
Mobile, and Galveston bays; the elongated complex of bays,
marshes, and islands of the eastern Texas coast; and the long
estuaries and barrier islands of the Florida, Alabama, Missis-
sippi, and Texas coasts. The western estuaries experience
droughts, and the entire zone is subject to hurricanes on occa-
sion. Many estuaries of the zone have been modified by petro-
chemical and industrial developments, drainage of wetlands, and
diversion of runoff. However, the Gulf Coast is highly productive
of a great variety of estuarine dependent fish and shellfish,
notably red snapper, spotted sea trout, menhaden, shrimp, crabs,
and oysters.
Birds are a major resource of the Gulf Coast. Waterfowl, the
endangered whooping crane, and other birds of the Central,
1-Modified from U.S., DOI, FWS, 1970.
12-13
-------
I
M
•£>
1. Corpus Christ!, Tex.
2. Houston, Tex.
3. Galveston, Tex
4. Port Arthur, Tex.
5. Lake Charles, La.
6. New Orleans, La.
7. Gulfport, Miss.
8. Biloxi, Miss.
9. Mobile, Ala.
10. Pensacola, Fla.
11. Tampa, Fla.
12. St. Petersburg, Fla.
13. Sarasota, Fla.
14. Ft. Myers, Fla.
Mississippi
%& Florida
ESTUARINE AREAS
Severely modified
Moderately modified
Relatively unmodified
Texas
Figure 12-3: Gulf Coast and South Florida Coastal Areas
Source: U.S., DOI, FWS, 1970, p. 40
-------
Mississippi, and Atlantic flyways, all winter in the extensive and
rich marshes and estuaries of the Gulf Coast. Thus, habitat de-
struction will affect not only wildlife of coastal areas, but
also populations that spend a great part of their lives elsewhere.
12.2.3 Current Status of Land Use
Approximately 38 percent of the southern region is forest
land, ranging from 14 percent in Texas to 67 percent in Georgia.
Thirty-two percent of the region is pasture and rangeland, rang-
ing from 3 percent in South Carolina to 65 percent in New Mexico.
About 20 percent is in cropland, ranging from 3 percent in New
Mexico to 37 percent in Kentucky. Urban areas account for a rel-
atively small proportion of total land area, about 2 percent of
the study area, ranging from less than 1 percent in New Mexico to
6 percent in Florida. Within regions 4 and 6, about 3 percent of
the land is classified as marshes, swamps, rocky areas, or des-
erts not associated with any particular land use type; the amount
of land in this category varies from a low of 1 percent in Okla-
homa to 12 percent in Louisiana.
A breakdown of land use patterns reveals several major geo-
graphical differences in the utilization of land resources. As
shown in Figure 12-4, roughly similar percentages of total land
area are devoted to cropland and pastureland in both regions of
the Sunbelt and the total U.S. However, the Sunbelt has more
pastureland than the U.S. average, Region 4 has considerably more
nonfederal rangeland, and Region 6 has considerably more nonfed-
eral forestland. Although the majority of commercial forest in
the Sunbelt is in nonindustrial private ownership, the leasing of
large tracts by lumber and paper companies is becoming more com-
mon in Region 4 (USDA, Forest Service, 1980) (see chapters 9 and
10). Nearly twice the percentage of land in Region 4 has under-
gone urbanization than in Region 6. As population levels con-
tinue to increase throughout the next several decades, this par-
ticular use of the land can be expected to expand in areal extent.
12.3 TRENDS AND ISSUES
12.3.1 Key Driving Forces
A. Population and Industrial Growth
As indicated in Chapter 3, the southern states are projected
to have 83.9 million people by the year 2010, a gain of 20.7 mil-
lion. This would represent a 31 percent population increase in
the Sunbelt, compared to a 21 percent increase projected for the
U.S.
12-15
-------
NJ
I
U.S.
URBAN
OTHER
NON-FARM
FED. OWNED
URBA
OTHER FARMLAN
OTHER
ION-FARM
NON-FEDERAL
FOREST LAND
FED. OWN1
OTHER FARMLAN
NON-FEDERAL
FOREST LANI
NON-FEDERAL
RANGELANO
Region VI
ASTURE
ON-FEDERAL
RANGELAND
OTHER
NON-FARM
URB
FED. OWNE
OTHER FARMLAN
NON-FEDERAL
FOREST LAND
ON-FEDERAL
RANGELAND
Region IV
Figure 12-4: Land Use Patterns in the U.S. and the Sunbelt
Source: Hidlebaugh, 1980.
-------
The Sunbelt is the only part of the country characterized by
a faster growth rate in metropolitan areas than in nonmetropoli-
tan areas. Many of the major cities in the Sunbelt have strong
economies and relatively low unemployment. This growth and pros-
perity have increased the demand placed on natural ecosystems for
recreation and the supply of resources. The expansion of urban
areas has caused the loss of both prime agricultural land and
natural habitats (Vining, Plaut, and Bieri, 1977). Projections
for future population trends (see Chapter 3) suggest that these
problems will intensify in years to come.
Population increases related to industrial and municipal
growth will contribute to the construction of new roads, instal-
lation of power and gas lines, and other developments that are
part of the urbanization process. The modification of wetland
habitats by urban expansion has been a major development in areas
adjacent to waterways and the coast. It is estimated that the
area of wetlands in the U.S. at one time totaled 127 million
acres. During the westward expansion of the U.S., most wetlands
were removed from the public domain and given to the states to
use as they believed appropriate. Subsequently, many wetlands
came under private ownership for a variety of uses. Draining and
filling of these habitats over the last two centuries has reduced
wetland acreage to approximately 70 million acres (USDA, Forest
Service, 1980). Coastal wetlands in the Southeast in particular
have undergone recent reduction through both drainage and conver-
sion to agricultural land and inundation to form reservoirs.
Much of wetlands modification has accompanied major transpor-
tation projects such as the Intercoastal Waterway and navigation
projects such as the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway. Contributing
to these transportation and industrial developments has been the
growth in international trade, especially in raw materials (wood,
coal), agricultural commodities, and chemicals and finished pro-
ducts from the southern states and from inland areas.
B. Forest Clearing and Agricultural Development
From 1920 to 1960 the nation's commercial timberlands ex-
panded (see Chapter 9). Much of the increase in forest occurred
in the South where erosion and depletion of soil fertility led to
the abandonment of cottonlands and the subsequent reversion to
forest (USDA, 1975; USDA, Forest Service, 1980). In the last two
decades, however, that trend has reversed with the conversion of
some forest land to agricultural land. For example, parts of the
coastal plain forests in North Carolina are being cleared for
agriculture and this area is likely to receive much pressure for
clearing in the near future (USDA, Forest Service, 1980).
The reduction of commercial forest has been most dramatic in
the South and in the Rocky Mountain states. For the South, the
12-17
-------
U.S. Forest Service predicts that during the 1980's clearing for
cropland will be responsible for most of the forest loss. As
cities expand in adjacent rural areas, the lost farmland is re-
placed by additional clearing. After 1990 most forest reduction
may likely be the direct result of clearing for urban facilities,
creation of reservoirs, and the removal of mineral resources
(USDA, Forest Service, 1980).
Bottomland forest habitat has undergone a more dramatic re-
duction than other forest types, declining 20 percent in acreage
from 1962 to 1970 (USDA, Forest Service, 1980). The Mississippi
River Valley is one of the most productive forest areas in the
southern region and this land is rapidly undergoing conversion to
agricultural land, primarily for the production of soybeans.
Inundation by new reservoirs and harvesting by the timber indus-
try have also diminished bottomland forests.
The creation of pastureland in the South primarily reduces
upland forest acreage. The Forest Service predicts that the
nation's biggest increase in demand for grazing land over the
next 50 years will occur in the South (USDA, Forest Service,
1980), which may contribute to a further reduction in forests.
C. Recreational Activities
The increase in mobility and leisure time in the American
society has led to increases in recreational use of the nation's
waterways and natural lands. Recreational activities conducted
outdoors in natural environments include boating, swimming, pic-
nicking, hiking, camping, off-road vehicle use, hunting, fishing,
and skiing. In 1977, Forest Service holdings provided for 90
percent of the recreational use of federal lands (USDA, Forest
Service 1980). Utilization of the national forests for recrea-
tion increased 37 percent from 1967 to 1977. Visitation in the
National Park System has undergone an even greater growth, with
an increase from 33 million to 217 million annual visitors from
1950 to 1974 (USDA, 1975). Growth of the land areas of the sys-
tem accompanied the increase in national park use, although at a
slower rate. The Appalachian National Scenic Trail experienced a
35 percent increase in use between 1974 and 1976 (USDA, Forest
Service, 1980).
There has recently been a substantial increase in the use of
wilderness and other dispersed areas—a trend which has accom-
panied growth in the popularity of backpacking in the last decade
(USDA, 1975). Sixty percent of all visitor use in national for-
ests now occurs in these dispersed areas. The use of wilderness
areas is expected to increase 80 percent by 2020 (USDA, 1975).
The Forest Service anticipates a 90 percent growth in the demand
for both backcountry and developed camping facilities by the year
2020, (USDA, 1975).
12-18
-------
The Forest Service has predicted a greater growth in demand
for outdoor recreational facilities in the southeastern U.S. and
southern Rocky Mountains (including New Mexico) than for the na-
tion as a whole (USDA, Forest Service, 1980). In part, this
growth is due to the population increases described in Chapter 3.
Yet, the majority of the nation's preserved lands and recreation-
al facilities are in the western U.S. The federal government ex-
penditure per capita for recreation is greater in the western
states than in either the North or the South (USDA, Forest Ser-
vice, 1980). The few recreational facilities located close to
cities experience a great deal of use. Lumber companies in the
southern region which lease hunting and fishing rights to their
property have helped alleviate this pressure. Some companies
have agreements with state wildlife or natural resource depart-
ments for developing game management plans on their land (USDA,
Forest Service, 1980).
As the growing demand for recreational facilities intensifies
use of existing land preserves, conflicts among various user
groups are likely to become more common. Some recreational acti-
vities are more damaging to natural areas than others. Activi-
ties which are growing most rapidly in popularity are among those
which are potentially destructive to delicate habitats unless
managed effectively, such as off-road vehicle use, snowmobiling,
and motorcycling. The use of off-road vehicles is expected to
increase 70 percent by 2020 (USDA, 1975). Beyond a certain point
recreational use of natural lands causes habitat degradation,
rendering the land unsuitable for certain types of wildlife and
reducing aesthetic qualities for which some of the preserves were
set aside. Some ecosystems, such as wetlands, coastal environ-
ments, and tundra, are more fragile than others.
D. Energy and Resource Development
Increased population and uncertain foreign energy supplies
have caused an increased demand for fossil energy resources, many
of which underlie southern lands (see Chapter 6). Tennessee,
Kentucky, and Alabama currently constitute the major coal pro-
ducing states within the Sunbelt (USDA, Forest Service, 1980).
Coal mining is projected to double in the southern region, from
about 200 million tons per year in 1977 to 400 million tons per
year by the year 2000 (see Chapter 6). The use of surface mining
for coal removal is expected to increase significantly in the
future (USDA, Forest Service, 1980). Much of the southern region
also contains major supplies of petroleum and natural gas (Chap-
ter 6). Production of these resources in Texas and Louisiana has
increased sevenfold since 1950 in terms of dollar value (USDA,
Forest Service, 1980). Exploration activities in Oklahoma and
Texas have tripled since 1978 as indicated by drilling rig
activity.
12-19
-------
The Sunbelt also contains 42 percent of the known phosphate
reserves in the country (USDA, 1975). These are located primar-
ily in the coastal plain areas of Florida and North Carolina. An
extensive area of Florida has been altered by phosphate mining,
and mining operations have recently begun in North Carolina's
phosphate deposits. The demand for phosphate is expected to in-
crease in the future.
E. Summary of Driving Forces
Increases in population, industrial, forest, and agricultural
use of available natural and land resources in the southern re-
gion are expected to intensify. Increased recreational use in
limited natural preserves is likely to affect wildlife habitat
and wilderness areas. Growing demand for energy resources, phos-
phates for fertilizers and other products, and other minerals
may intrude upon some natural habitats. Urban sprawl and the
need to replace lost agricultural land may also contribute to the
underlying driving forces affecting land and coastal zone use.
12.3.2 Problems of Protecting Natural Ecosystems
In the Sunbelt, there are only limited natural ecosystems
which are in public ownership or otherwise "protected"--that is,
designated to remain in a natural or managed seminatural state.
Nationwide, the federal government administers 54 percent of the
rangeland and 39 percent of the forestland. A much smaller per-
centage of land is government owned in the Sunbelt—less than 15
percent of the range and forest resources (USDA, Forest Service,
1980). Most of the remainder is privately owned. The total for-
ested land in the Sunbelt, 221 million acres, is about 30 percent
of the U.S. total. Of this, 195 million acres are held privately
and are considered "unprotected" (Table 12-7). Most of the re-
maining acreage is administered by the Forest Service, primarily
in New Mexico and Arkansas. Of the 153 million acres of range-
land, about 12 million acres are in public ownership, almost ex-
clusively in New Mexico (Table 12-8). New Mexico has the great-
est proportion of rangeland, about 63 percent. Texas and Okla-
homa also have large areas of rangeland, primarily used for
valuable livestock purposes.
The degree of protection given to a particular land unit de-
pends on the managing federal agency. Most of the federally
owned forest and rangeland is administered by the Forest Service
as shown in Table 12-9. Management programs practiced by this
agency promote the use of land resources for a variety of rec-
reational and commercial purposes, including timber products,
water resources, forage for livestock, wildlife habitat, and
mineral resources.
12-20
-------
TABLE 12-7:
FORESTLAND OF THE SUNBELT BY OWNERSHIP
MANAGEMENT AGENCY, 1977
(thousands of acres)
AND
Location
Total Percent
Forested of Area
Land Forested
Bureau
of Land
Forest Manage-
Service ment
Non-
Other federal
Federal Forested
Agencies Land
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt
U.S.
21,361
17,040
25,256
12,161
16,912
20,043
12,249
13,161
188, 183
18,281
14,558
18,060
8,513
23,279
82,692
220,875
740,143
66
49
70
48
56
64
63
50
58
55
51
23
19
14
24
38
33
640
1,082
856
656
1,138
1,146
607
620
6,746
2,465
596
7,851
224
615
11,751
18,496
141,864
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,015
0
0
2,015
2,015
114,163
199
1,237
642
280
160
679
149
441
3,789
196
144
693
99
192
1,325
5,113
29, 130
20,521
14,721
23,757
11,225
15,614
18,218
11,493
12,099
127,649
15,620
13,818
7,501
8,190
22,473
67,602
195,251
454,985
Source: USDA, Forest Service, 1977, Table 2.3.
12-21
-------
TABLE 12-8:
RANGELAND OF THE SUNBELT BY OWNERSHIP
MANAGEMENT AGENCY, 1977
(thousands of acres)
AND
Location
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt
U.S.
Total
Range
land
54
2,189
0
0
20
0
20
400
2,683
0
517
48,725
9,301
91,599
150,142
152,825
820,087
Percent
of Area
in Range-
land
<1
6
<1
<1
2
1
0
2
63
21
55
43
26
36
Forest
Service
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,394
67
166
1,627
1,627
45,037
Bureau
of Land
Manage-
ment
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10,942
8
0
10,950
10,950
346,005
Other
Federal
Agencies
1
197
0
0
9
0
0
4
208
0
2,776
120
1,147
4,042
5,449
47,775
Non-
federal
Range-
land
53
1,992
0
0
11
0
20
400
2,475
0
517
33,614
9,107
90,285
133,523
135,999
381,269
Source: USDA, Forest Service 1977, Table 2.3.
12-22
-------
The majority of the remaining federal range and forest land
is managed by the National Park Service, the Fish and Wildlife
Service, and the Department of Defense. The National Park Ser-
vice manages 3.8 million acres in the southern region, primarily
in Florida and Texas (Table 12-9). The primary task of the Na-
tional Park Service is to preserve land units which are of natu-
ral, historical, recreational, or cultural value. On most of the
National Park Service lands grazing, mining, hunting, and timber
harvesting are prohibited. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is
responsible for managing most federal wildlife refuges, compris-
ing about 1.2 million acres in the southern region. Preserving
wildlife habitat is the basis for establishing most refuges, al-
though the Fish and Wildlife Service permits other activities,
such as hunting and fishing, as long as they do not threaten
populations of organisms the refuges were designed to protect.
In addition to these broader classes of land reserves, the
agencies identified above manage 2.17 million acres for the pri-
mary purpose of preserving the land's wilderness qualities.
These wilderness areas generally receive less intense use than
the national parks and monuments. Currently, grazing and mining
are permitted in some wilderness areas, but no new mining claims
can be filed after 1983. Few operative mines exist in wilderness
areas due to their inaccessibility. Timber harvest is prohibited
on these tracts; and in some areas recreational use is limited so
that alteration of the landscape is minimized. A continuing
issue is whether additional lands should be set aside to protect
natural areas, or whether existing protected areas should be more
accessible to development.
12.3.3 Problems and Issues in Agricultural Development
Agricultural lands are confronted with a range of problems,
including demands for increased agricultural production, by
changes in technologies and land management practices, and com-
petition from other land uses. These problems include ecological
problems associated with monoculture such as pesticide use, ero-
sion and sedimentation, prime farm land loss, and land treatment
of wastes. These issues are discussed in the following sections.
A. Pesticide Uses
Pesticides include both herbicides and insecticides. Al-
though more attention has been given to insecticide use and the
associated ecological and health issues, herbicides are also
widely used. Approximately 86 million pounds of insecticides
were used in the South in 1976, about two-thirds of the U.S.
total. Ninety-eight million pounds of herbicides were used in
1976, representing 26 percent of the nationwide total (see Chap-
ter 9). Application of many insecticides has not increased since
12-23
-------
TABLE 12-9:
PROTECTED ACREAGE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN REGION
(thousands of acres)
NJ
I
to
Locat 1 on
Region 4
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North Carol ina
South Carol ina
Tennessee
Total
Region 6
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Sunbelt
U.S.
National
Park
Service
Holdings3
6
1,750
31
62
101
358
6
261
2,575
80
34
247
2
958
1,321
3,896
26,531
Wi Ider-
ness
Areasb
13
1,322
32
5
0
31
3
8
1,414
35
0
671
0
47
754
2,168
8,392
National
Forests0
,263
,224
,911
,415
2,310
2,953
,380
,204
13,661
3,488
1,022
10,125
413
1,730
16,780
30,440
220,057
National
Wildlife
Refuges0
48
451
465
2
103
124
142
82
1,418
193
276
375
141
210
1,194
2,613
34,947
Nataure
Conservancy
Sanctuary"
12.10
0.75
0.23
0.03
2.57
3.42
0.19
19.31
0.09
0.60
0.69
20.00
NA
State Parks &
Recreat 1 on
Areas®
48
286
52
42
20
116
66
139
768
422
30
71
90
132
746
1,513
9,417
NERPf
0
0
0
0
0
0
300
200
500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NA
Private
Hunting
PlantationsS
150
243
475
0
75
33
125
0
1,101
33
33
0
0
0
66
0
NA
Total
"Protected"
Land
1,527
5,287
2,967
1,526
2,608
3,618
2,025
1,894
21,456
4,251
1,395
11,490
646
5,077
20,861
42,318
NA
NA = not appl(cable
aU.S., DOI, BLM, 1978.
bU.S., DOI, National Park Service, 1979; USDA, Forest Service, 1979.
CUSDA, Forest Service, 1979.
dNature Conservancy, 1975.
eCouncll of State Governments, 1980.
^National Environmental Research Parks at Federal National Laboratories.
^Komerek, 1981; acreages for some states are estimated; similar preserves may exist in the western part of Region 6, but those
figures are not Included herein.
-------
1970, but herbicide use has increased a great deal. Residues
have appeared in water supplies adjacent to agricultural land
and abandoned dump sites in localities throughout the southern
region (U.S., CEQ, 1980). Pesticides accumulate in the food
chain, posing threats to wildlife as well as humans by affecting
the central nervous system, the reproductive system, or by car-
cinogenic and mutagenic properties.
The EPA has primary responsibility for pesticide regulation
under the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act,
but the thousands of compounds on the market make analysis of
these chemicals very difficult; nevertheless, several pesticides
once widely used in the South have been banned (e.g., DDT) or
limited in usage (2,4,5-T).
Monitoring studies on pesticides have mostly focused on the
organochlorine group of insecticides that tend to affect eco-
systems through accumulation and magnification, but herbicides
and fungicides are more likely to affect the lower level of food
chains (Crosson and Brubaker, 1981). Little is known about what
happens to pesticides after they leave the fields or about the
ability of ecosystems to recover from temporary high concentra-
tions of a pesticide. The organochlorine insecticides tend to
persist (for three to six years) and increasingly concentrate in
the body tissue of higher animals. In high enough dosages, tests
have shown some organochlorines to be carcinogenic or teratoge-
nic. DDT was banned in 1972; by 1976 the only organochlorine
still used in large quantities was toxaphene. The organophos-
phorus and carbamate compounds that replaced the organochlorines
are not as persistent (only 1 to 3 months) and do not accumulate,
but most are highly toxic to humans and other organisms, their
damage is sharp, localized, and short-term (e.g., industrial
accidents).
Insects can build genetic resistance to some insecticides and
new generations of insecticides are used to increase effective-
ness. Even Integrated Pest Management (IPM) makes use of chemi-
cal pest control, thus, any pesticide safety program is likely to
have risks associated with it.
Most herbicides have low toxicity to humans, except paraquat
(used on conservation tillage) which is highly toxic and can
cause skin irritations even in dilute form. Others, such as
2-4-D are suspected of being carcinogenic and may produce birth
defects and miscarriages as well. Atrazine used on corn and
sorghum (see Chapter 9) has low toxicity to humans but in the
human stomach may be carcinogenic. Fungi and microorganisms
metabolize propanil to a compound similar to 2,4,5-T, which has
been restricted. The effects of pesticides on soil microorga-
nisms and on water organisms is largely unknown.
12-25
-------
In the Sunbelt from 1974 to 1976, 1,307 incidents of pesti-
cides poisoning resulting in hospitalization of both workers and
the public were reported. Region 4 experienced most of these in-
cidents (85 percent)--this was nearly doable any other region in
the country. Region 6 ranked third nationally during this per-
iod. Most pesticide poisonings were nonoccupational, uninten-
tional, and not related to specific characteristics of the south-
ern region. Occupational exposure to pesticide poisoning ac-
counted for about one-fourth the hospitalizations, mostly of far-
mers and commercial applicators.
Residues of some pesticides appear to have declined slightly
in agricultural soils (Table 12-10), and pesticide use may de-
cline if IPM techniques spread. However, increases might be
expected in some areas as demands for cropland increase and as
other crop production causes more land presently in unmanaged
forest and rangeland to be converted to intensively managed
cropland. In addition, as low-till and no-till agricultural
practices expand, herbicide use on those lands will increase
since chemical weed control will be substituted for the mechan-
ical control provided by plowing.
Pesticides runoff and contamination of surface water is
the major toxic water quality problem in much of Texas, Louisi-
ana, Arkansas and Mississippi (U.S., CEQ, 1980). However, some
improvement in water quality has occurred as levels of per-
sistent pesticides have diminished due to restrictions on the
use of some chlorinated hydrocarbons, such as DDT (see chapters
9 and 14).
B. Erosion and Sedimentation
As discussed in Chapter 9, agricultural lands in the South
have experienced large and rapid rates of erosion. Sediment from
soil erosion is the major nonpoint source water pollutant, and
cropland alone produces about 40 percent of the total sediment
in inland waterways nationwide (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980, p. 355).
Sixty-eight percent of all U.S. basins are affected by agricul-
tural nonpoint source pollution. Within the study area, it is
estimated that 87 percent of southcentral and 62 percent of
southeastern basins are so affected (U.S., CEQ, 1979b, p. 149)
(see Chapter 9).
Direct impacts of this erosion are: (1) loss of topsoil with
decline in land capability and consequent decreases in productiv-
ity (if productivity decreases are substantial, uses may become
more limited); (2) deposition of sediment in, and clogging of,
wetlands, lakes, and waterways (often leading to dredging and
fill operations which cause further ecological disruption); and
(3) runoff of pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers into adja-
cent waters. If the Southeast does become an area of greatly
12-26
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TABLE 12-10: PESTICIDE RESIDUES IN AGRICULTURAL SOILS,a
1969-1974b
(ppm dry weight, geometric mean)
Pesticide
1969
1970
1972
1973
1974
DDTC
Aldrin
Dieldrin
Aldrin/dieldrin
Toxaphene
Chlordane
Heptachlor
Heptachlor epoxide
.0148
.0031
.0088
.0119
.0025
.0038
.0008
.0014
.0125
.0034
.0104
.0138
.0011
.0046
.0013
.0017
.0131
.0024
.0097
.0121
.0045
.0035
.0010
.0010
.0100
.0021
.0090
.0111
.0035
.0034
.0006
.0012
.0073
.0008
.0066
.0074
.0017
.0006
.0003
.0010
ppm = parts per million
Source: Adapted from U.S., CEQ, 1979a, p. 128.
aData were collected from 34 states, except that for 1972.
Heptachlor and heptachlor epoxide data were collected from 37
states.
'-'Not measured in 1971.
CDDT includes DDT and its related derivatives.
expanded production of crops as projected by BEA data (see chap-
ters 4 and 9), erosion will increase above current amounts.
The amount of soil loss that may occur without concomitant
losses in soil productivity can be expressed by the average soil
loss "Tolerance" for various land uses. Although soil proper-
ties, climate, and topography differ greatly from one area to
another, an average Tolerance value for cropland, pasture, and
forestland is about 4 to 5 tons per acre per year (this is equi-
valent to the loss of one-thirtieth of an inch per acre). Be-
cause rangeland is generally much more fragile, its Tolerance
value is only 2 tons per acre per year. The heaviest erosion is
typically seen on soils that contain a large percentage of silt,
that are located on steep or long slopes, or are in areas with
frequent and intense rainfall. Land use also affects the rates
of erosion, with cropland experiencing much worse erosion than
pasture or forest (Table 12-11).
12-27
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TABLE 12-11: REPRESENTATIVE EROSION RATES WITH VARIOUS
LAND USES
Land Use
Forest
Grassland
Abandoned Surface Mines
Cropland
Harvest Forest
Active Surface Mines
Construction
Tons Per
Acre
Per Year
0.04
0.4
3.8
7.5
19.0
75.0
75.0
Approximate \
Relative
Forest =
1
10
100
200
500
2,000
2,000
falue
to
1
Source: Modified from Conner, Travis and Trudeau, 1980.
There are four basic types of erosion: wind erosion; sheet
and rill erosion which is caused by the movement of water across
the soil; gully erosion that involves the formation or enlarge-
ment of ravines or chanels; and streambank erosion. Information
has been collected on sheet and rill erosion throughout the coun-
try and on wind erosion only in the Plains states.
Except for the Southern Plains and Mountain regions, sheet
and rill erosion causes by far the most damage--two-thirds of the
total 6.8 tons per acre lost in the U.S. (Table 12-12). In the
South, the Appalachian, Delta, and Southeast regions^ experience
the highest sheet and rill erosion, while the Southern Plains
states are subject to significantly high wind erosion (averaging
over 11 tons per acre per day). The U.S. as a whole plus all the
regions containing Sunbelt states exceed the average Tolerance
erosion rate of 5 tons per acre per year.
Appalachian region includes the states of Kentucky,
North Carolina, and Tennessee; the Delta region, Louisiana, Mis-
sissippi, and Arkansas; the Southeast region, Alabama, Georgia,
Florida, and South Carolina; and the Southern Plains, the states
of Oklahoma and Texas (see Chapter 9).
12-28
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TABLE 12-12: EROSION FROM CROPLAND IN THE U.S., 1977
Region
and
Example
State
Appalachian
Tennessee
Southeast
M Georgia
NJ
to Delta
^ Arkansas
Southern
Plains
Texas
Mountain
Nation
Wind
Amount Tons
(millions Per
of tons) Acre
ne
ne
ne
ne
ne
ne
488.8 11.6
453.5 14.9
190.3 4.5
891.0 2.1
Sheet and
Amount
(millions
of tons)
186.3
69.5
111.0
42.7
154.9
46.7
141.4
99.5
70.8
1,908.0
Rill
Tons
Per
Acre
9.0
14.1
6.3
6.6
7.3
5.9
3.4
3.3
1.7
4.7
Total
Amount
(millions
of tons)
186.3
69.5
111.0
42.7
154.9
46.7
630.2
553.0
261.1
2,799.0
Tons
Per
Acre
9.0
14.1
6.3
6.6
7.3
5.9
15.0
18.2
6.2
6.8
Percent
National
Erosion
(weight)
6.7
2.5
4.0
1.5
5.5
1.7
22.5
19.6
9.3
100.0
of
Total
Cropland
(area)
5.0
1.2
4.2
1.6
5.1
1.9
10.2
7.4
10.2
100.0
ne = not estimated.
Source: Crosson and Brubaker, 1981.
-------
Soil loss from all sources of water erosion are higher than
average in the Sunbelt, based on estimates from climate, slope,
and soil characteristics, and common cropping practices. Twenty-
two of 50 states have average annual cropland water-induced ero-
sion rates of 4 tons or more per acre; 10 of those are in the
13-state study area (USDA, SCS, 1978). Table 12-13 suggests that
cropland in certain parts of the study area has erosion rates
well above the national average. In fact, the 1977 inventory
suggests that even some nearly level wet soils in the Mississippi
Delta region are eroding at above permissible rates, i.e., faster
than they can develop naturally (USDA, SCS, 1978, p. 4).
The Soil Conservation Service encourages the use of best man-
agement practices to reduce soil loss and improve water quality.
Since erosion removes only a thin layer of soil each year and pro-
ductivity losses appear gradually, few incentives may exist to
use protective measures. The problem is compounded since average
annual net capital investment in both soil conservation and wa-
tershed protection measures has declined each year since 1970
(Timmons, 1979, p. 65). Erosion will probably continue to in-
crease in the study area in the future if a greater use of mar-
ginal cropland and conversion from other uses occurs.
C. Loss of Prime Agricultural and Forest Land
As population and industrial development increase, land is
converted from agricultural and forest uses to the production of
housing, transportation facilities, and other urban-related uses.
Over 10 million acres in Region 4, and 3 million acres in Region
6 were converted to urban, built-up, transportation, and water
uses between 1967 and 1977 (Table 12-14). This represents over
40 percent of all U.S. land converted during that period.
Florida, Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia had the most acres
converted.
Land conversion creates several potential problems. If the
converted land is valuable agricultural or forest land, U.S.
agricultural and forest productivity can be reduced at a time
when U.S. farm and forest exports contribute to the world food,
feed, and fiber supply and to the U.S. balance of payments.
About 32 percent of all land converted in the study area was
prime farmland (Lee, n.d., p. 14). Another 40 percent consisted
of land that is currently or is potential cropland. Because
cities generally developed in areas of good soils, urban growth
tends to selectively convert the best farmland. Only about 20
percent of all land in the South is prime farmland, yet almost a
third of the land actually converted was prime farmland
(Diderikson etal., 1977, pp. 57-71).
12-30
-------
TABLE 12-13: CROPLAND SOIL EROSION DUE TO WATER AND WIND, 1977
Watera Wind
State/Area (tons/acre/year) (tons/acre/year)
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
U.S. Average
9.90
6.48
4.17
6.58
9.40
7.90
10.92
2.00
ia 7.64
3.68
la 4.77
14.12
3.47
4.77
11.49
2.97
14.92
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1979b.
alncludes sheet and rill, gully, and streambank erorison.
D. Changes to Grasslands and Forests
Agricultural practices described in Chapter 9 (Agricultural
Development and Forest Management) have resulted in a replacement
of diverse natural ecosystems with monocultures (single crops)
that provide a high yield. Two types of ecosystems have been
replaced in many localities of the southern region: native
grasslands and hardwood forests. Some of the native grassland
types, such as the tall grass prairie that occurred in Oklahoma
and Texas, have largely been replaced by forage crops and inten-
sively grazed rangeland. The native grasslands once supported a
wide range of animal species and mediated against erosion. Small
areas of tall grass prairie have been preserved, but the mainte-
nance of biologically diverse grasslands is difficult under con-
ditions where strong incentives and pressures exist to increase
agricultural yields.
Forests have also experienced major changes. Forests are
pervasive in the southern region, especially in the elevated
areas and areas of higher rainfall. Slow growth hardwood forests
12-31
-------
TABLE 12-14: CONVERSION OF LAND TO URBAN, TRANSPORATION,
AND WATER USES, 1967-1977
Acres Converted
State/Region 1967-1977
Region 4
Alabama 890,000
Florida 3,470,000
Georgia 1,400,000
Kentucky 760,000
Mississippi 720,000
North Carolina 1,280,000
South Carolina 920,000
Tennessee 770,000
Total 10,210,000
Region 6
Arkansas 370,000
Louisiana 250,000
New Mexico 290,000
Oklahoma 250,000
Texas 2,260,000
Total 3,420,000
Sunbelt 13,630,000
U.S. 30,840,000
Source: Hidlebaugh, 1980,
of oak and hickory have been replaced typically with faster
growth softwoods such as loblolly pine. Hardwood stands are also
lost to urban and agricultural development. Bottomland hardwoods
of the Mississippi River region, for example, are experiencing
significant reduction in area extent (U.S., DOI, FWS, 1981) (see
Figure 12-5). Although these forests are usually replaced with
higher yield agricultural or forest products, they represent
losses in quality hard woods and a reduction in environmental
diversity.
12-32
-------
— 10
o
UJ
0
o
O
Q
oc
a
o
o
m
a.
O
UJ
8 -
6--
4--
2--
Arkansas
Missouri
Louisiana
Tennessee
Mississippi
—I
1937
1947 1957
TIME PERIODS
—I—
1967
1977
Figure 12-5: Bottomland Hardwood Forest Clearing Rate Comparison
Source: U.S., DOI, FWS, 1979b, p. 32.
12.3.4 Mining Reclamation
Adequate reclamation of mined lands has been an issue during
the 1970's for many states, including several in the southern
region. A variety of mining activities occurs in the southern
states, including coal and sand and gravel mines (Table 12-15),
and other mining activities such as phosphate, uranium, lead,
lime-stone, and peat (U.S., DOI, FWS, 1980a). As evaluated by
the Soil Conservation Service in 1977, about 700 thousand acres
are in need of reclamation but are not covered by state or fed-
eral reclamation law. Two hundred and fifty thousand acres of
coal mines now have reclamation standards covered by the federal
Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) of 1977. Ac-
cording to the Soil Conservation Service, about 547 thousand
acres of mined lands are not in need of additional reclamation.
12-33
-------
TABLE 12-15:
SOIL CONSERVATION SERVICE ASSESSMENT OF LAND DISTURBED BY SURFACE
MINING AS OF JULY 1, 1977a
(acres; dashes indicate none)
10
i
Land Needing Reclamation
Reclamation Not Required by Any Law
State
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Georg i a
Kentucky
Louisiana9
Mississippi
New Mexico
North Carol ina
Oklahoma
South Carol ina
Tennessee
Texas
13- State Total
Sand and
Gravel
16,611
21,483
11,162
3,353
980
37,324
45,966
11,860
1 1 , 908
6,659
9,065
4,950
152,457
337,778
Other Mined
Areas
19,929
11,479
235,700
24,008
4,712
2,549
7,821
1,806
4,792
14,105
2,128
2,305
37,104
368,438
Coal Mines
(federal )c
72,292
5,623
___
1,680
101,637
22
_-_
36,118
29,583
3,310
250,265
Reclamation
Coal Mines
(state)d
34,807
2,859
...
764
154,218
3,709
6,298
3,127
3,725
209,507
Required by
Sand and
Gravel
5,498
20
3,365
4,623
2,299
1,057
7,096
2,766
4,395
810
6,289
38,218
Law (1977)
Other Mined
Areas
5,498
1,592
20, 922
13,772
2,780
—-
26,072
3,909
4,110
3,194
1,135
4,989
88,727
Land Not
Requiring*5
Reclamation
85,673
9,449
61,266
23,247
154,495
10,467
14,415
2,207
7,000
16,255
9,815
104,596
48,456
547,341
Tota 1 Land
Disturbed
241,062
52,505
332,415
71,447
421,121
50,340
68,202
46,733
34,705
86,311
28,597
146,506
256,330
1,836,274
Source: U.S., DOI, FWS, 1980a.
aBased on Information from Soil Conservation Service state offices.
bAs judged by the Soil Conservation Service in 1977.
°These coal mine areas now must meet federal reclamation standards.
^These coal mines required reclamation under pre-1977 state and federal law.
eNo state law when survey completed.
-------
The mining issues in the Appalachian and Central Plains
regions of the southern states are related primarily to potential
coal strip mining areas, as shown in Figure 12-6. However, other
mining problems also occur in these states, including the wetland-
related problems associated with phosphate mining in central
Florida, and uranium mine and tailings disposal problems in New
Mexico and Texas. Because uranium, coal, phosphate, and other
mining activities are expected to intensify, the following issues
may become more significant during the coming decades:
• Conflict over state implementation of coal surface mine
reclamation requirements. Southeastern states have not
received approval by the DOI for their mine reclamation
programs;
• Economic costs of requirements for restoration of ori-
ginal topography have been an issue raised by the mining
industry. This problem is especially significant for
surface mines in the Appalachian region;
• Uncertainties of impact of mines to soils, ground water,
and surface water, especially in new mine areas such as
the lignite fields of the Gulf Coast states. Water
pollution and modification to local hydrology are con-
tinuing problems from phosphate mines in Florida; and
• Reclamation in the arid areas in New Mexico poses poten-
tial problems, especially in drought years. Revegeta-
tion provisions of SMCRA generally require that irriga-
tion, mulching, and intensive management accompany
mining in New Mexico.
In the Gulf Coast states, floodplain and wetlands restric-
tions represent a constraint on the location of lignite mines,
for example, as much as 10 percent of the strippable lignite re-
source in Texas may be affected by prohibitions on mining in wet-
lands (Radian, 1979). Although, under special conditions and at
increased costs, mining probably can be conducted in the flood-
plain, it is possible that under federal or state law, some of
these areas may be declared unsuitable for mining (Radian, 1979).
The floodplain and wetland constraints are greatest in the more
humid eastern portion of Texas, and extend into Arkansas and
Louisiana.
According to one study, increased surface mining is expected
to result in the cumulative disturbance of approximately 374,000
acres of lignite area in Texas by the year 2000 (Radian, 1979).
Since the land will be reclaimed and revegetated, the amount
of disturbed surface at any one time will be a small portion of
the cumulative total. The total acreage which may be mined is
small—less than one percent of the total habitat available.
12-35
-------
Figure 12-6: Potential Coal Strip Mining Areas
Source: Copenhaver, Olson, and Rice, 1978, p. 35.
However, wildlife populations are subject to considerable man-
made disturbances. In addition, reclamation practices often rely
on only one crop species, such as Coastal Bermuda and other
grasses planted for grazing. This kind of vegetation provides
little cover and food for wildlife (Radian, 1979).
Topographic modification, stream siltation, and acid mine
drainage have been some of the impacts from surface and subsur-
face mining in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama. In eastern
Kentucky, for example, it is estimated that 175,000 acres of
lands have been disturbed by surface mining through the early
1970's (Branscome, 1972). Reclamation of the disturbed soils is
difficult due to their acidic nature (Grim and Hill, 1974). How-
ever, several erosion and sediment control procedures have been
developed to minimize impact to streams (U.S., EPA, 1976). In-
creased coal mining predicted for the Sunbelt in the coming de-
cades will create additional surface disturbances (see Chapter
6). Thus, mine reclamation will continue to be an important
issue, particularly in areas experiencing lignite and bituminous
coal development.
12-36
-------
12.3.5 Wetlands Management Issues*-
Coastal zone and wetlands areas currently are affected by a
range of problems associated with population and industrial
driving forces. Concerns include wetlands conversion, increased
recreation needs, potential conflicts with fishing interests,
needs for waste disposal sites, waterways dredging, land sub-
sidence, and water pollution. In addition, salt water intrusion,
management of barrier islands, and flooding and hurricane protec-
tion needs characterize some Atlantic and Gulf coast areas.
These concerns are described in this section.
A. Conversion of Wetlands versus Preservation
Rapid urban growth of the coastal area has resulted in in-
creased conversion of wetlands as coastal areas accommodate new
businesses and residences. For example, in Louisiana, it has
been predicted that if the present draining and filling opera-
tions for urban and commercial development in the coastal area
continue, an additional 186,000 acres of the state's wetlands
will be lost by the year 2000. An acre of marsh often produces
more food (dollar value) than an acre of prime agricultural land.
For example, in 1978 the value of an acre of wetland in Barataria
Basin was about $9,100 (Humphrey et al., 1978).2 Additional
benefits of marsh lands include the protection they provide from
the severity of storms and their ability to be used for waste
treatment, up to a point, without an appreciable reduction in
water quality.
Table 12-16 indicates the cumulative change from natural and
man-made processes on one of the most extensive wetlands and
coastal regions of the study area, the western portion of the
Mississippi River Delta in Louisiana and Texas. Areas reclaimed
as urban have increased 23.3 percent, but natural marshes have
diminished 20 percent over a 22 year period ending in 1974 (U.S.,
DOI, FWS, 1979b). Agriculture, urbanization, and impoundments
have significantly diminished marsh, forest, and beach habitat,
and have expanded open waters and dredge spoil deposits.
Iportions of this section are adapted from descriptions in
the Coastal Zone Management Plan for Louisiana (U.S., Dept. of
Commerce, NOAA, and La., Dept. of Natural Resources, 1980) and
other state coastal zone management plans .
this estimate for the value of an acre of wetland, the
projected loss of 186,000 acres would add up to a $1.7 billion
loss. The activities taken into consideration in deriving these
estimate were commercial fishing, noncommercial fishing, commer-
cial trapping, and recreation.
12-37
-------
TABLE 12-16:
ENVIRONMENT CHANGE 1952-1974 FOR THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTAa
(hectares)
Environmnent Type
Net Area
Net Percentage
Habitat Change
Near shore Gulf
Open Water
Natural Marsh
Impounded Marsh
Natural Ridge
Spoil
Rice
Non-Rice Agriculture
Pasture
Socio/Economic (Urban Areas)
Beach
Upland Forest
Swarnp Forest
+ 1,539
+28,027
-81,275
+38,111
- 1,246
+ 5,365
+ 2,787
+ 1,826
+ 1,181
+ 5,446
116
- 1,246
396
+ 0.4
+16.2
-20.3
+30.8
- 3.8
+23.1
+ 6.7
+ 29.0
+ 1.3
+23.3
- 1.8
- 7.2
- 5.7
Source: U.S., DOI, FWS, 1979b,
aThe Chenier Plain area.
Both private and public agencies have been successful in many
instances in protecting valued wetlands as game preserves, parks,
and for natural values. EPA and the Corps of Engineers have
broad review powers in preserving wetlands from encroachment by
industrial development or as transportation corridors. In St.
Charles Parish, Louisiana, for example, EPA, in cooperation with
the State Highway Department and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Ser-
vice, preserved about 1,000 acres of wetlands that would have
been destroyed by a highway (U.S., EPA, Office of Planning and
Management, 1980). Common agreement was reached on siting the
highway on higher ground and using construction practices that
minimized wetlands intrusion.
Coastal wetlands are a sportsmen's paradise, offering scenic
opportunities for fishing, hunting, boating and other water-
related recreational activities. The management of recreational
areas will become a greater concern as the urban centers grow and
the utilization of recreational areas increases.
12-38
-------
B. Commercial and Sport Fishing Issues
Commercial fishing is an important industry contributing to
the economy of most coastal states. The region harvests about 49
percent of the U.S. fish catch (Table 12-17). Presently, the
fishing industry faces a number of serious problems because it
relies on continued maintenance of the estuarine fishery habitat.
Problems facing the fishing industry in the Gulf Coast include
underwater obstructions and the lack of support facilities. Un-
derwater obstructions cause costly damage to fishing gear and
boats and threaten navigation safety along coastal waters. Fish-
ing interest groups are aware that wetlands and other habitats
have been reduced by dredge and fill projects, saltwater intru-
sion, impoundments, leveeing, and channel dredging (LACCMR, 1973,
p. 7). Land loss has already resulted in an economic loss in
fishery products estimated at between $8 and $17 million dollars
annually in Louisiana (Craig and Day, 1977; Conner et al., 1976;
and CEI, 1976). The leveeing of the Mississippi River, although
providing valuable flood protection, has adversely affected
coastal wetlands by blocking the flow of freshwater and nutrients.
This has increased saltwater intrusion and already affected impor-
tant fisheries including reduced white shrimp stocks (U.S., Dept.
of Commerce, NOAA, 1980).
C. Local Waste Discharge and Disposal Sites
Sources of coastal water pollution, like other areas, occur
in two major categories: point sources which include discharges
from municipal sewage treatment and industrial waste treatment
plants; and nonpoint sources including runoff from such activi-
ties as housing, industrial development, and agriculture (see
Chapter 14). Historically, the net adverse impact on coastal
waters and wetlands as a result of these two sources is a reduc-
tion in the general water quality of the coastal region. How-
ever, there have been several recent improvements in coastal
water quality, as indicated in Table 12-18.
The elimination of chemical waste disposal in the Gulf of
Mexico is a major development in reducing direct additions to
pollutants in the coastal area. In 1972, the dumping of 1.4
million tons of chemical wastes was authorized under permitting
provisions of the Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries
Act of 1972 (U.S., EPA, Office of Planning and Management, 1980).
EPA made permits conditional on the development of alternative
disposal plans, with priority on eliminating toxic substances
such as chlorinated hydrocarbons. By 1974, the volume of wastes
dumped into the Gulf was 950,000 tons, and by 1975 it was down to
140,000 tons. By 1980, all dumping into the Gulf was eliminated
(U.S., EPA, Office of Planning and Management, 1980).
12-39
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TABLE 12-17: COMMERCIAL AND MARINE RECREATIONAL FISHERIES
CATCH BY STATE
(thousand pounds)
State
Alabama^
Arkansas6
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky6
Louisiana
Mississippi
North Carolina
Oklahoma6
South Carolina
Tennessee6
Texas
Total
U.S.
Percent of U.S.
1976
Commercial
Landingsa
34,953
10,300
164,955
14, 524
2,945
1,227,958
291,904
226,065
575
21,481
6,800
96, 305
2,098,765
5,350,400
39
1974 Marine Recreational Catch
Finfishb
10,756
164,235
9,601
61,541
9,883
26,753
17,793
51,936
289,438
Shellfish0
1,039
58,604
1, 165
17,409
1,447
7,641
6,441
9,725
103,471
Source: U.S., Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, 1978.
aStatistics are for live weight of finfish and weight of meat
(excluding shell) of shellfish.
^Statistics are for live weight.
cStatistics are for live weight including shells.
^Landings of interior waters estimated.
6Estimated.
12-40
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TABLE 12-18: EXAMPLES OF COASTAL WATER IMPROVEMENT
Location
Period of
Maximum
Degradation
Causes
Effects
Improvements
Charleston
Harbor,
South Carolina
Escambia Bay,
Florida
Perdido Bay,
Alabama and
Florida
1940-1970 Raw sewage, river
diversion, indus-
trial discharge
1950-1970 Thermal discharges,
chemical industry
discharges, pulp
and paper mill
wastes, drainage
restrictions
1940-1970 Pulp and paper
mill discharges
Crab mortality,
fish kills, sur-
face scum
Numerous fish
kills, loss of
oyster and
shrimp fishery
Discoloration,
swimming impos-
sible , loss of
shell fish
Since 1970: primary
sewage treatment
(fishing still impeded,
scum removed, shrimp
returning)
Since 1970-72: reduc-
tion of industrial
discharges, restora-
tion of bay circula-
tion (fishery improve-
ments )
Treatment of pulp mill
effluent (restoration
of swimming and fish-
ing)
Source: Data from U.S., EPA, Office of Planning and Management, 1980, pp. 53-56.
-------
Despite these improvements, some coastal wetlands are still
used as waste disposal sites for solid or stored liquid wastes.
Leachates from both types of wastes can adversely affect water
quality. Storage of hazardous or nuclear wastes in the coastal-
zone creates a potential for serious pollution incidents if the
integrity of such storage is breached by natural corrosion,
weathering, or natural hazards.
Solid wastes from chemical and petrochemical industries have
been disposed of in improperly constructed or poorly located
landfill sites in some locations peripheral to the Mississippi
River and its tributaries (Richards, 1979). Some of the disposal
sites are along the lower Mississippi, the Mississippi Delta, and
the surrounding wetlands. The contents of at least several sites
leach directly into nearby aquatic systems and ultimately into
the northern Gulf of Mexico (Richards, 1979). Of the contaminat-
ing organic compounds thus far identified, some are known to be
toxic to man and to marine organisms. Procedures being imple-
mented under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act are in-
tended to reduce these problems (see chapters 7 and 15).
Pollution from trace metals enter the Gulf of Mexico from a
variety of sources, but rivers probably account for 90 percent of
most metals entering the Gulf (Richards, 1979). The Mississippi
is estimated to carry more than two-thirds of the river-borne
trace metals entering the Gulf. An improved understanding of the
behavior of trace metals in the Mississippi Delta and Gulf is
critical to an assessment of any potential trace metal impact on
organisms (Richards, 1979).
D. Problems with Dredging and Port Development
The shallow coastal zone of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts is
crossed by man-made canals. Both oil and gas development and the
growth of ports have played a major role in creation of new
waterways in the Gulf Coast. These canals change the hydrology
of the natural marsh system and create spoil disposal problems.
In Louisiana, it is estimated that 25 percent of the 16.5 square
mile average annual net land loss during the past 30 years is the
direct result of petroleum industry dredging (Gagliano et al.,
1973; Gagliano and Van Beek, 1970). In addition, the construc-
tion of channels, such as the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet, has
increased saltwater intrusion, and thousands of acres of marsh-
land have already been destroyed as a result of the construction
of this channel. Smaller canals, such as those dredged for oil
and gas activity, also create hydrological alterations. Canals
are often dredged to install pipelines and the necessity of
dredging many new canals could be allayed through multiple use
of pipeline corridors.
12-42
-------
Few ports in their present condition are sufficiently deep to
accommodate the new large vessels used for the world transport of
raw materials such as coal, particularly when vessels are loaded
(Madison, 1981). Insufficient harbor depth is a major problem at
most ports and dredging operations are included in most port mod-
ernization plans. The estimated cost of dredging the four har-
bors of Hampton Roads, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Mobile to a
depth of 55 feet (from current depths ranging from 40 to 45 feet)
is $1.5 billion (Madison, 1981).
Disposal of dredge spoils is a major issue in many near-shore
areas. Along the Gulf Coast of Florida, for example, dredge
spoils from Tampa Bay are being discharged into areas that fish-
ermen and recreationists claim is valuable habitat (Kohlman,
1980). Location of disposal sites is a more critical issue as
industrialization develops and environmental restrictions are
imposed.
E. Subsidence Costs to Urban Areas
Wetland soils are susceptible to subsidence or sinking when
drained. Subsidence in some areas is estimated to be as much as
three or four feet. Although draining wetland areas costs soci-
ety as a whole in terms of the loss in benefits the wetlands pro-
vide, direct costs are borne by the individual landowners. In
Louisiana, the subsidence problem is common in Orleans, Jeffer-
son, and St. Bernard parishes (Earle, 1975). It is estimated
that the cost of developing a subdivision (exclusive of homes) in
recently reclaimed wetlands is 50 percent greater than in areas
of firmer soil (Mumphrey et al., 1976). Continued drainage and
ground water use are likely to make subsidence problems a con-
tinuing concern.
F. Saltwater Intrusion
The problem of saltwater intrusion is increasing along some
areas of the Gulf Coast. Oyster beds in Barataria Bay, Louisiana,
are an example. Saltwater is steadily advancing up the bay and
forcing the retreat of prime oyster bed areas into the upper
reaches of the bay (Van Sickle et al., 1976; LACCMR, 1973, p. 33).
Saltwater intrusion has also been observed in the freshwater
areas which humans use as a source of drinking water (LACCMR,
1973, p. 142). Mean salinities in Lake Pontchartrain have in-
creased from yearly averages of 1.3 parts per thousand in the
early 60's to 4 to 9 parts per thousand in the early 70's (LACCMR,
1973, p. 143).
There are two primary reasons for increasing saltwater intru-
sion: the levee system along rivers and the dredging of new
canals and waterways. Levees deprive the estuaries of the flow
12-43
-------
of freshwater, raising the salinity of the water in many places.
During high river stages and rainy seasons, the canals move
freshwater almost to the sea, changing brackish areas to fresh-
water; during low river stages, the canals allow the rapid inland
advance of sea water.
G. Barrier Island Losses
The 300 barrier islands and spits along the Atlantic and Gulf
coasts are valuable wildlife habitat and scenic recreation areas,
and protect against marine erosion processes and hurricanes
(U.S., CEQ, 1980). The tidal passes associated with barrier
islands can be viewed in part as control valves of the estuaries
because they regulate the amount of salinity intrusion and storm
energy that enters the estuaries (Gagliano £t_a1., 1973).
The barrier islands along the Gulf coast are being eroded.
In Louisiana, the barrier islands of Grand Isle and Grand Terre
were listed as areas of "critical erosion" by the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers (1971). Between 1960 and 1972, 172 acres (18 per-
cent) of the principal Grand Terre island were eroded away. Be-
tween 1932 and 1969 the average rate of barrier island erosion
was 119 acres per year. The width of the tidal passes in the
Barataria Bay area is increasing, as is the rate of increase of
width (Van Sickle et al., 1976).
The coastal erosion of the Barrier islands in and adjacent to
the Mississippi River Delta is due to insufficient sedimentation
from the Mississippi River, regional subsidence, hurricane damage,
and man-induced changes such as dredging of canals on the bayside
of a number of islands (Gagliano et al., 1973), and traversing of
barrier islands by pipelines. Although barrier island losses are
likely to be a continuing concern, especially in the Gulf of
Mexico, in many areas coastal zone management plans have imple-
mented stabilization programs to minimize additional barrier is-
land losses.
The coastal zone of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts has suffered
great loss of life and property because of floods and hurricanes.
In 1979, hurricanes Frederick and David resulted in 10 deaths and
$2.6 billion in property destruction (U.S., CEQ, 1980). The
rapid urbanization of the coastal zone is resulting in greater
numbers of people living in high hazard areas, thereby increasing
the need for protective measures and means of evacuation. Im-
proved public awareness of natural hazards and careful management
of coastal development may help to reduce damages from flooding
and hurricanes in the future.
12-44
-------
12.3.6 Habitat and Endangered Species
A wide range of wildlife occupies the diverse ecoregions of
the South. As indicated in Section 12.2 some of these species
occupy coastal habitats, others have habitat requirements occur-
ring farther inland. Migratory species such as waterfowl, for
example, may require several habitat or ecosystem types. The
size of species populations provides an indicator of the well-
being of an ecosystem. Some wildlife populations are protected
by the Bald Eagle and Golden Eagle Protection Act. Other legis-
lation protects migratory birds and threatened and endangered
species (Table 12-2). Continued changes in land use in the
southern region can affect these populations.
The Endangered Species Preservation Act of 1973 codified
concern for industrial and agricultural growth that accelerates
species extinction. It has focused much attention on those or-
ganisms whose population numbers are low and whose habitat avail-
ability or quality is in danger of being diminished. Unfortun-
ately, most available information on the abundance of rare or
endangered species is based on historical ranges of the species
in question, and little is available in the way of recent, speci-
fic location data.
Table 12-19 indicates the number of presently identified spe-
cies and their state distribution. As indicated in the table,
states vary widely in the number of endangered species. This is
in part due to activity of biologists, knowledge of the biology
of an area, and natural diversity of species. For example, Ten-
nessee has the most species, in part due to extensive studies on
native fishes, snails and clams, but also because of the extent
and diversity of freshwater aquatic habitats in the state. The
essential or critical habitat of rare and endangered species is
protected from significant alteration by federally authorized
projects. The process of identifying species to be included on
the list and determining what habitat is essential is an activity
of the Office of Endangered Species in the Fish and Wildlife Ser-
vice. The process is accompanied by interagency, state, and pub-
lic review. Critical habitat for selected species is summarized
in Table 12-20. This summary table for selected species can be
interpreted to indicate that many locations in Tennessee and
Florida contain critical habitat. Much of the coastal area of
south Florida, for example, is critical habitat. Thus, economic
development or urban sprawl can be controlled in this area.
The well publicized snail darter critical habitat in the
Little Tennessee River at the Tellico Dam site is as an example
of the conflicts that can occur. The critical habitat was
12-45
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TABLE 12-19: NUMBERS OF SPECIES FEDERALLY DESIGNATED AS ENDANGERED,
THREATENED, PROPOSED, OR IN-REVIEW, SEPTEMBER, 1978
State
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
10 Louisiana
Mississippi
North
Carolina
Oklahoma
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Mammals
7
8
10
8
8
6
6
7
9
7
8
12
Birds
6
7
9
6
5
8
7
6
6
6
5
9
Reptiles
6
2
10
3
0
5
6
1
2
2
0
8
Amphibians
1
0
1
1
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
5
Fish
14
7
4
7
3
2
4
9
2
1
14
9
Snails
4
3
2
2
2
0
1
3
1
0
16
3
Clams
7
1
0
0
6
1
0
0
0
0
16
1
Crustaceans
1
0
3
1
3
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
Insects
0
0
4
1
0
0
0
2
0
1
0
3
Plantsa
15
24
7
19
16
5
6
32
6
20
22
6
Total
61
52
50
48
43
27
30
62
26
38
85
56
Source: Brookhaven National Laboratory Endangered Species Data Base.
aPlant lists from Federal Register for all states except Arkansas are incomplete.
-------
TABLE 12-20: EXAMPLES OF CRITICAL HABITAT
State
Species
Critical Habitat Area
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
New Mexico
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Slackwater Darter
Alabama Cavefish
Leopard Darter
Florida Manatee
Florida Everglades
Kite
Dusky Seaside Sparrow
Cape Sable Seaside
Sparrow
American Crocodile
Whooping Crane
Ridge-Nosed Rattle-
snake
Spotfin Chubb
Whooping Crane
Leopard Darter
Indiana Bat
Snail Darter
Slender Chubb
Spotfin Chubb
Whooping Crane
Houston Toad
Various counties
Lauderdale County
Southwestern counties
Coastal waters
East of Miami area
Parts of southern
Florida
Everglades National
Park
Coastal waters
Socorro County
Hidalgo County
Little Tennessee River
Salt Plains National
Wildlife Refuge
Southeastern counties
Blowhole Cave, Blount
County
Little Tennessee River
Various rivers
Various rivers
Arkansas Wildlife
Refuge
Bastrop County;
Burleson County
Source: 50 CFR 17.95.
12-47
-------
protected until Congress specifically exempted the Tellico Dam1
from the Act's provisions and provided an interagency review
mechanism to incorporate a broader constituency in cases where
conflicts and issues over the Act arise. As land use changes
continue in the southern region, concerns over critical habitat
are likely to continue.
Table 12-21 lists "Important Resource Problems" (iRP's) iden-
tified by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Each IRP indicates
that a certain species or community of species in a specified
geographic area is or will be under a significant stress during
the coming decade. Higher rankings indicate IRP's with more
highly valued species or habitats which are threatened. A total
of 78 problems have been adopted nationwide for planning purposes
(U.S., DOI, FWS, 1980b). Figure 12-7 shows the distribution of
the problem areas. Inland, the panhandle areas of Texas and Ok-
lahoma and much of Tennessee also have problems with habitat
management, according to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.
12.4 SUMMARY
Land use and management issues are likely to intensify be-
cause of anticipated population, industrial, agricultural, and
recreational growth in the southern region. Five categories of
impact are important to changes in the environment as listed in
Table 12-22. These include erosion, loss of critical habitat,
dredging, filling, and loss of open spaces. The causal factors
affecting these impacts that are likely to become increasingly
important during the next two or three decades are forestry,
mining, wetlands, and coastal zone development from urbanization,
industrialization, and recreational uses. Locations where envi-
ronmental issues are likely to be most intense are the coastal
zone areas of Florida and northern sections of the Gulf Coast,
such as the northcentral Texas coast, the Louisiana coastline,
and the Mobile Bay area. For inland states, these issues arise
in the Appalachian region of Kentucky and Tennessee, where
energy, forest, agriculture, and wildlife issues have occurred
and where development of the region is continuing. However,
each of the other states has complex surface management issues.
Additional local examples include:
IAS a postscript, the snail darter has recently been found in
a tributary below the Tellico Dam, and transplants of the fish
have also been made (Omang, 1980). However, it is not certain
whether this population is adequate to sustain the existence of
the species.
12-48
-------
TABLE 12-21: IMPORTANT RESOURCE PROBLEMS IN FEDERAL
REGIONS 4 AND 6 IDENTIFIED FOR 1980-85
National
Problem and Location Rank
Region 4
Endangered Species (Wetlands and Keys of South Florida) 2
Migratory Waterfowl and Other Migratory Birds (Lower Missippi River) 5
Migratory Waterfowl (Coastal Marshes, Louisiana) 7
Endangered Birds/Bald Eagles (Lower 48 States) 19
Endangered Species (Unprotected Barrier Islands,
Coastal States) 24
Migratory Waterfowl (Coastal Marshes, North and South Carolina) 32
Endangered Species (Coastal Georgia, North and South Carolina) 38
Endangered Cool and Cold Water Fish (Cumberland Plateau) 44
Estuarine and Anadromous Fish (North Carolina, South Carolina,
Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama) 49
Endangered Species (Mid-Gulf Drainage States) 50
Endangered Species and Waterfowl (Bottomland Hardwoods, Florida,
and Georgia) 55
Region 6
Endangered Birds and Migratory Birds (Coastal Texas) 4
Endangered Birds/Bald Eagle (Lower 48 States) 19
Migratory Birds (Rio Grande Valley, Texas) 21
Endangered Species (Unprotected Barrier Islands, Coastal States) 24
Endangered Species (Western Coal Development) 25
Migratory Waterfowl (Rio Grande/Pecos Basins, New Mexico) 57
Migratory Waterfowl (Playa Lakes [coastal areas]) 59
Endangered Fishes (Edwards Aquifer, Texas) 60
Source: U.S., DOI, FWS, 1980b.
12-49
-------
NJ
I
Ul
o
5 IRPS OR MORE
Figure 12-7: Distribution of Important Resource Problems
Source: U.S. DOI, FWS, 1980b, p. 16.
-------
TABLE 12-22: ENVIRONMENTAL MATRIX: LAND AND COASTAL ZONE USE
I
Ul
Environmental
Impact /Problem
Areas
Erosion
Loss of critical
habitat
Dredging
Fi 1 1 Ing wetland
areas, wetland
drainage
Loss of open space
for habitat;
recreational use
Causal
Factors
Poor management practices
In crop production,
forest harvesting,
construction mining
activities, strip mining
Population and industrial
growth, expansion of
cropland areas
Demand for clear and deep
waterways for transporta-
tion, demand for ports,
marinas, and housing
Urban sprawl and indus-
trial demand for riverine
and coastal sites,
solid waste disposal,
crop area expansion
Urban sprawl, lack of
funds or incentives for
Inventorying or setting
aside lands, expansion
of crop 1 and areas
Type of
Prob 1 em
Created
Eco 1 og I ca 1
Aesthet I c
Economic
Ecological
Ecological
Aesthet i c
Health
Ecological
Aesthetic
Ecological
Aesthetic
Econom I c
Duration
Permanent in
severe instances
Cumulative
effects
Permanent
Uncertain but
long term
effects of
continuing
practices
Permanent
Some kinds are
lost permanently,
e.g., areas
covered by
urbanization
and Industri-
al expansion
Area
Affected
Entire study area,
but wind erosion
confined to west
Especial ly severe
I n coasta 1 areas
coasta 1
Coastal areas, In-
land waterways
ways
Mississippi Val ley,
Gu 1 f Coast
All of study area
except New Mexico
Policy
1 ssues
General : siting
issues, improved
agricultural man-
agement, forestry
practices, In-
creased mining
Siting, growth
management
Economic effects;
ecological ef-
fects; alternative
disposal sites
Alternative land
use strategies
Options for rec-
reation develop-
ment
-------
• North Carolina: control of urban and industrial devel-
opment in the central region, peat mining;
• South Carolina: central industrialization, preservation
of coastal habitat;
• Georgia: coastal management, urbanization, agricultural
development, wetland preservation;
• Mississippi: waterways development;
• Arkansas: soil management and forestry;
• Oklahoma: forestry, irrigation projects; and
• New Mexico: mining development and changes in irrigated
agriculture.
Many of the changes anticipated are relatively permanent, in-
cluding transportation projects, drainage and filling activities,
and continuing erosion. For some problems, such as water quality
in the coastal zone, significant improvements have occurred, as
in the bays on the Florida Panhandle and the elimination of toxic
chemical dumping in the Gulf of Mexico. Other issues are likely
to intensify, such as encroachment on prime agricultural lands
and the reduction in some forest areas. Because of these contin-
uing concerns, land use management is likely to be a continuing
issue in the future decades for the southern region.
12-52
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U.S., Department of Agriculture (USDA), Forest Service. 1980.
An Assessment of the Forest and Range Land Situation in the
United States. Washington, D.C.: USDA, Forest Service.
U.S., Department of Agriculture (USDA), Soil Conservation Ser-
vice (SCS). 1978. 1977 SCS National Resource Inventory.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), National Marine Fisheries Service.
1978. Fisheries of the United States, 1977.
U.S., Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), Staff. 1980. Personal communication.
U.S., Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA), Office of Coastal Zone Management and
Louisiana, Department of Natural Resources, Coastal Manage-
ment Section. 1980. Louisiana Coastal Resources Program;
Final Environmental Impact Statement. Baton Rouge:
Louisiana, Department of Natural Resources.
U.S., Department of the Interior (DOI), Bureau of Land Management
(BLM). 1978. Public Land Statistics, 1978. Washington,
D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of the Interior (DOI), Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS). 1956. Wetlands of the United States, Fish and Wild-
life Circular No. 39. Washington, D.C.: U.S., DOI, FWS.
U.S., Department of the Interior (DOI), Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS), Bureau of Sport Fisheries and Wildlife and Bureau of
Commercial Fisheries. 1970. National Estuary Study, Vol. 1,
Main Report. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Department of the Interior (DOI), Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS), Office of Biological Services, National Coastal
Ecosystems Team. 1979a. Coastal Ecosystem Characterizations
—A Summary of Activities FY75 through FY79. NSTL Station,
Miss.: U.S., DOI, FWS.
12-57
-------
U.S., Department of the Interior (DOI), Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS), Division of Ecological Services. 1979b. Documenta-
tion, Chronology, and Future Projections of Bottomland Hard-
wood Habitat Loss in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain,
Vol. 1, Basic Report. Vicksburg, Miss.: U.S., DOI, FWS.
U.S., Department of the Interior (DOI), Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS). 1980a. Habitat Preservation; Program Management
Document, Fiscal Year 1980-1985. Washington, D.C.: Govern-
ment Printing Office.
U.S., Department of the Interior (DOI), Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS). 1980b. FWS Important Resource Problems. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., DOI, FWS.
U.S., Department of the Interior (DOI), Fish and Wildlife Service
(FWS), Jackson, Mississippi, Staff. March 1981. Personal
communication.
U.S., Department of the Interior (DOI), National Park Service.
1979. Index; National Park System and Related Areas as of
June 30, 1979.Washington,D.C.:U.S.,DOI,National Park
Service.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1976. Erosion and
Sediment Control; Surface Mining in the Eastern U.S., Design,
EPA Technology Transfer Seminar Publication. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., EPA.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Planning and
Management. 1980. National Accomplishments in Pollution
Control; 1970-1980. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research
and Development (ORD). 1980. Environmental Outlook 1980.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Van Sickle, V. R., et al. 1976. Barataria Basin; Salinity
Changes and Oyster Distribution. Baton Rouge: Louisiana
State University, Center for Wetland Resources.
Vining, Daniel K., Thomas Plaut, and Kenneth Bieri. 1977.
"Urban Encroachment on Prime Agricultural Land in the United
States." International Regional Science Review 2 (No.2):
143-56.
Wild and Scenic Rivers Act of 1968, Pub. L. 90-542, 82 Stat. 906.
Wilderness Act of 1964, Pub. L. 88-577, 78 Stat. 890.
Wilderness Act of 1978, Pub. L. 95-495, 92 Stat. 1649.
12-58
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CHAPTER 13
WATER AVAILABILITY
HIGHLIGHTS
• Status and Trends
1. The eastern two-thirds of the Sunbelt has historically had
abundant water resources, while New Mexico, and parts of
Texas and Oklahoma have a long history of surface water
and ground water shortages. Water resources have been an
important factor in the recent industrial growth of the
Sunbelt.
2. Water consumption in Region 4 is projected to double by
the year 2000. The largest increases are expected from
steam electric generation (over 900 percent increase) and
manufacturing (over 300 percent increase). Agricultural
consumption is projected to increase 30 percent and will
remain the largest water user, accounting for about 30
percent of total consumption in Region 4.
3. Water consumption by energy production is expected to in-
crease significantly in all states of the study area
except New Mexico. In Region 6, water consumption for
steam electric generation is projected to increase over
500 percent by the year 2000.
4. Growth in four key manufacturing industries will place in-
creasing stress on water resources: chemicals, primary
metals, paper and allied products, and petroleum and coal
products. Chemicals and primary metals are expected to
grow over 300 percent in Region 6; petroleum and coal pro-
ducts is predicted to grow over 300 percent in Region 4.
• Geographic Areas
5. One of the most significant areas facing current water
shortages is the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, affected
by depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer. This is causing
shifts to dry land farming; it could adversely affect the
economies of both states, and it is a multistate problem
also affecting Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado.
13-i
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The South Atlantic Gulf area (North and South Carolina,
Georgia, Florida, and Alabama) will face increasing stress
on water resources. This will he due to growth of the
paper and chemicals industries, agriculture, population,
and increasing water quality problems.
Southcentral Texas could face serious water problems.
This area faces rapid energy development, expansion of the
chemicals industry, and rapid population increases.
Ground water is already being overdrafted in many areas,
salt water intrusion is a problem along the coast, surface
water supplies are already tight, and water quality
problems could increase.
• Key Problems and Issues
8. Ground water depletion is currently a problem in Texas,
Oklahoma, Florida, and along the South Atlantic Coast.
More areas will face ground water depletion, which can be
a long-term problem requiring multistate cooperation and
improved institutional mechanisms for managing this
resource.
9. Surface water availability will become an increasingly
significant concern throughout the Sunbelt, possibly
restricting industrial and population growth. In the
Southeast, this problem will present very difficult policy
questions because of the historical abundance of water and
riparian water law.
10. Completion of the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway will have
both advantages and disadvantages to the Southeast. While
controversy over this waterway seems unavoidable, the key
need is to incorporate measures to mitigate environmental
consequences in plans for completing the waterway.
11. States are in the central position to provide water
resources for a variety of uses, but they will have fewer
financial resources at their disposal. Thus, improved
water management is needed in several states, including
revisions or alternatives to riparian water laws, coopera-
tive arrangements to manage ground water, means to improve
management of multi-state river basins, and improved
information systems.
13-ii
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CHAPTER 13
WATER AVAILABILITY
13.1 INTRODUCTION
Water availability has long been a problem in many parts of
the Southwest which suffer from inadequate surface water and
ground water supplies. Water availability has become more seri-
ous in the Southeast, especially where water quality degradation
has limited some uses. As industrial and population growth con-
tinue in the Sunbelt, these concerns will increase. Key driving
forces include expanded water needs for steam electric power
generation, production of chemicals, pulp and paper, primary
metals, and petroleum products, expanding agricultural uses, and
a rapidly growing population. The use of water for recreational
purposes is also important to the attractiveness of the South
(see Chapter 2). In addition to increasing the competition for
water, these and other driving forces can create water quality
problems (see Chapter 14). Thus, policies to provide adequate
water in the Sunbelt will need to account for the relationship
between quantity and quality of the resource.
This chapter addresses water availability concerns throughout
the Sunbelt. The following section (13.2) describes existing wa-
ter resource conditions, including a brief overview of the regu-
latory system, surface and ground water resource characteristics,
and the past trends in water use. Section 13.3 examines trends
and issues in water availability. This includes a description of
key driving forces and four problem areas--ground water deple-
tion, region-wide water shortages, completion of the Tennessee-
Tombigbee Waterway, and the need for improved water management.
13.2 EXISTING CONDITIONS
13.2.1 The Regulatory System
Control of water allocation has been predominantly a state
function. Within states, administration of surface water has
generally been based on either a riparian or an appropriation
doctrine. The riparian doctrine, which has developed primarily
in states that historically have had adequate flows, stipulates
that an unlimited amount may be taken by any user owning property
13-1
-------
adjacent to the stream as long as the use does not adversely af-
fect downstream users. Thus, during periods of adequate flow any
reasonable rates of withdrawal can be supported.1 During periods
of low flow, priorities established by the state guide the amount
available to any particular user.
The appropriation doctrine has developed in areas experienc-
ing inadequate surface supplies. This system, often referred to
as "first in time, first in right," establishes a clearer set of
priorities for water use. A. continuing right is granted to the
first user of water.2 A second user, whether upstream or down-
stream, is entitled to use his right only if enough remains after
the senior user has met his needs. Thus, in the appropriation
system, secondary or "junior" users often may be denied their full
allocation.
Figure 13-1 identifies the surface water laws for the Sunbelt
region. Only New Mexico is currently an appropriation state.
Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, and Florida have mixed systems and
the remaining eight states are riparian. For example, Missis-
sippi and Florida have permit systems which employ most of the
principles of the Appropriation Doctrine without establishing use
priorities during critical periods.
Ground water law has developed independently of surface water
law, usually because of the mistaken view that surface and ground
waters were not hydrologically connected. Thus, historically
ground water was viewed to be owned by the property owner. Most
western states now require applications or permits for ground
water use, but most eastern states regulate ground water only in
areas of critical water shortage. States of the Sunbelt can be
classified in four categories of ground water law. These laws can
vary within a state, depending on whether the source is an under-
ground stream, percolating water, or a spring:
-"-Several terms are central to understanding water use. With-
drawal (sometimes referred to as diversion) is the amount of
water physically removed from a stream. Consumption is the por-
tion of the withdrawal required for crop growth, industrial use,
domestic purposes, etc. For agricultural water use, the term
return flow refers to that portion of water withdrawn for irriga-
tion which returns to accessible surface or ground waters. While
most water which is not consumed is returned to the stream, a
small percentage is irrecoverably lost to evaporation, phreato-
phyte consumption, or to irretrievable ground waters.
2Rights are obtained by application to a state water engineer
or water court. Rights are granted for specific uses and quan-
tities .
13-2
-------
DOCTRINES RECOGNIZED
Appropriation
Riparian
D Both appropriation and riparian
Figure 13-1: Surface Water Laws
Source: Geraghty etal., 1973, Plate 33.
1. Absolute ownership: a landowner can withdraw any
water from beneath his land without liability to his
neighbors.
2. Reasonable use: each landowner is restricted to a
reasonable exercise of his rights, in view of similar
rights held by his neighbors.
3. Correlative rights: among landowners overlying the
same ground water resource, each landowner can make a
reasonable use of that supply so long as the source is
sufficient. When the source is insufficient, each land-
owner is entitled to water in proportion to the percent
of his land to all other lands overlying the source.
4. Prior appropriation: ground water is subject to
appropriation for beneficial use, providing the user
complies with statutory requirements, permits, or
licenses.
13-3
-------
All of these ground water law systems are used in the Sunbelt.
The most common is the Reasonable Use Doctrine, prevalent in
Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. This
is very close to the riparian doctrine for surface water; in fact,
Tennessee does not legally distinguish surface and ground waters.
Three states have absolute ownership—Texas, Louisiana, and Mis-
sissippi. Kentucky is the only state recognizing correlative
rights, while Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Florida have prior appro-
priation systems. South Carolina has a mixed system; reasonable
use is applicable for withdrawals under 100,000 gallons per day
(gpd) while withdrawals in excess of 100,000 gpd are subject to
appropriation.
Treaties and compacts have become increasingly important to
the allocation of water resources. Table 13-1 shows water trea-
ties and compacts affecting the Sunbelt region. The need for
these agreements developed because of inadequate supplies in some
river basins—all of the eleven agreements are for rivers in
Region 6 and most affect New Mexico and Texas. These treaties are
primarily intended to allocate water among the states in times of
shortage and to preserve minimum stream flows.
Water availability is also influenced by water quality legis-
lation. The Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972 and the
Clean Water Act of 1977 have established national water quality
goals and established the basic regulatory system for limiting
pollution discharges and treating wastewaters. Water quality
regulations can be important to water use and availability; for
example, requirements limiting thermal pollution have contributed
to the use of cooling towers which can result in increased water
consumption. (Refer to Chapter 14.2 for an elaboration of water
quality regulation).
13.2.2 Overview of Water Resources
A. Surface Water
The study area includes nine water resource regions represen-
ting major hydrologic basins (Figure 13-2). These regions are
useful in making general characterizations of areas where water
is physically limited or subject to large variations in flow.
As suggested previously, water is most physically limited in
the Southwest (Region 6). The fundamental cause is the semiarid
climate, resulting in low precipitation levels in New Mexico,
Texas, and Oklahoma. For example, rainfall averages 10 to 20
inches per year in New Mexico and parts of Oklahoma and Texas,
contrasted with 50 to 60 inches per year throughout most of Region
4 (see Figure 13-3). Thus, the water resource regions experi-
encing water shortages are the western and central portions of the
Arkansas-White-Red, western and central portions of the Texas Gulf
13-4
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TABLE 13-1:
TREATIES AND COMPACTS AFFECTING WATER RESOURCES
IN THE SUNBELT
Treaty/Compact
Signatories
Rio Grande
Convention
(1906)
Rio Grande,
Colorado and
Tijuana Treaty
(1944)
U.S.
Mexico
U.S.
Mexico
Arkansas River
Basin Compact
(1965)
Arkansas River
Basin Compact
(1970)
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Canadian River
Compact
(1950)
Sabine River
Compact
(1953)
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Louisiana
Texas
Major Provisions
The U.S. is entitled to use all
water of the Rio Grande be-
tween Juarez and Ft. Quitman,
Texas.
Fifty percent of the unallo-
cated flow of the Rio Grande
is allocated to each country.
Delivery from Mexico to U.S
will be a minimum of 350 MAFY.
The U.S. guarantees a minimum
of 1.5 MMAFY of the Colorado
River to Mexico. Minimum
quality requirements (salin-
ity) are established for this
flow.
Allocates reservoir construc-
tion. Kansas is entitled to
100 percent of average natural
flow plus a portion of the new
reservoir storage.
Oklahoma is entitled to a maxi-
mum of 60 percent of the flow
of the Arkansas basin. Ar-
kansas is entitled to a maxi-
mum of 50 percent from the
Spavinaw Basin, 60 percent
from the Illinois and Poteau
Basins, and 100 percent from
Lee Creek.
Allocates reservoir water.
Establishes a commission to
determine flow requirements.
Fifty percent of the river is
allocated to each state.
(continued)
13-5
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TABLE 13-1: (continued)
Treaty/Compact
Signatories
Major Provisions
Costilla Creek
Compact
(1963)
Rio Grande
Compact
(1938)
Pecos River
Compact
(1948)
Colorado River
Compact
(1922)
Upper Colorado
River Basin
Compact
(1948)
LaPlata River
Compact
(1922)
Colorado
New Mexico
U.S.
Texas
New Mexico
Colorado
New Mexico
Texas
Arizona
California
Colorado
Nevada
New Mexico
Utah
Wyoming
Arizona
Colorado
New Mexico
Utah
Wyoming
Colorado
New Mexico
Colorado is allocated 36.5 per-
cent of the flow and New
Mexico 63.5 percent.
Allocation to the three states
is determined by an upstream
flow index.
Establishes a minimum flow
based on 1947 conditions.
Also allocates 50 percent of
the flood waters to each
state; 43 percent of the sal-
vaged water to Texas; and 57
percent of salvaged water to
New Mexico.
Divides waters of Upper and
Lower Basins of the Colorado.
Guarantees 75 MMAF at Lees
Ferry, Arizona, in any 10-year
period.
Allocates 50 MAFY to Arizona.
The remainder is allocated as
follows:
11.25%
51.75%
23.00%
14.00%
New Mexico
Colorado
Utah
Wyoming
Allocates 50 percent of the
flow to each state if flow is
less than 100 cfs. Other-
wise, use is unrestricted.
MAFY = thousand acre-feet per year.
MMAFY = million acre-feet per year.
cfs = cubic feet per second.
13-6
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Figure 13-2: Water Resources Regions
Source: U.S., WRC, 1978a, p. 5.
region, the Rio Grande region, and the portions of the Upper and
Lower Colorado regions in New Mexico. Severe water shortages are
common in New Mexico, along the Rio Grande in Texas, and along the
Oklahoma-Texas border. In addition, rainfall in New Mexico,
Texas, and Oklahoma is subject to high variability; thus river
flows generally are high in the spring but low in summer and fall.
In contrast, water is physically available and subject to
relatively uniform annual flows throughout much of the Southeast.
This is particularly true for the South Atlantic Gulf region and
the Lower Mississippi region. The area drained through the Lower
Mississippi region has an average stream discharge of approxima-
tely 430 billion gpd (480 MMAFY). This represents about 45 per-
cent of the average stream discharge for the entire region (U.S.,
WRC, 1978a, p. 15).
Abundant water also characterizes the Tennessee and Ohio
regions. However, high variability in flow is typical throughout
Kentucky and in portions of Tennessee and North Carolina, causing
13-7
-------
Precipitation (Inches)
Q Under 20
CO20"40
E^ Over 40
Figure 13-3: Annual Precipitation
localized shortages at times and extensive flood damage at others.
The Tennessee Region has undergone significant development of its
water resources by the Tennessee Valley Authority, which regulates
streamflow through a system of 37 reservoirs. This regulation of
water provides hydroelectric power and flood control and augments
flows during the dry season.
B. Ground Water
Several major aquifers run through the study area, as illus-
trated by Figure 13-4. The coastal plain region, including the
highly productive Floridian Aquifer, is estimated to contain the
largest reserve of ground water in the nation (Geraghty et al.,
1973). In the Appalachian Region, ground water supplies are gen-
erally adequate for most domestic purposes but are not considered
adequate to support increased agricultural or industrial activity.
Some areas in the eastern section do have ground water shortages,
including northern Alabama, and portions of Mississippi and
Louisiana. \
13-8
-------
U)
I
V0
_____ Unconsolidated and semiconsolidated aquifers
V//A Consolidated aquifers
Both Unconsolidated and consolidated aquifers
I I Not known to be underlain by aquifers
that will generally yield as much as 50 gpm to wells
Figure 13-4: Ground Water Resources of the Sunbelt
Source: Thomas, 1951.
-------
More severe ground water shortages exist in Region 6. The
major aquifers in this region are the Ogallala in the High Plains
and aquifers along the gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana. Severe
overdrafts have been occurring for years in these aquifers—most
notably throughout the Ogallala and in the Houston area. For ex-
ample, over 50,000 irrigation wells pump water from the Ogallala
in Texas alone, resulting in a rapidly decreasing water table.
13.2.3 Water Use in the Sunbelt
Estimates of water use by resource region for 1975 are shown
in Table 13-2. Total water withdrawals, including surface water
and ground water, are highest in the Ohio and South Atlantic-Gulf
regions—representing 45 percent of the total withdrawals for
these nine water resource regions. However, consumption is high-
est in the Texas Gulf and Arkansas-White-Red regions—representing
46 percent of the total consumption for these nine regions. Con-
sumptive use ranges from 4 percent of total withdrawals (Tennessee
region) to 67 percent (Rio Grande region). A high percentage of
TABLE 13-2: FRESH WATER USE IN WATER REGIONS OF THE SUNBELT,
1975
(millions of gpd)
1975 Fresh water
Withdrawals
Water Resource 1975 Percent
Region Surface Ground Total Consumption Consumed3
South Atlantic-Gulf
Ohio
Tennessee
Lower Mississippi
Arkansas-White-Red
Texas Gulf
Rio Grande
Upper Colorado
Lower Colorado
Total
19,061
33,091
7,141
9,729
4,022
9,703
3,986
6,743
3,909
97,385
5,499
1,843
271
4,838
8,846
7,222
2,335
126
5,008
35,988
24,560
34,934
7,412
14,567
12,868
16,925
6,321
6,869
8,917
133,373
4,867
1,798
313
4,027
8,064
11,259
4,240
2,440
4,595
41,603
20
5
4
28
63
66
67
36
52
31
Source: U.S., Water Resources Council, 1978a, p. 25. See Appendix A for
an overview of the methodology and assumptions used in the Second National
Water Assessment.
aRatio of consumption (1975) to total fresh water withdrawals (1975).
13-10
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consumptive use occurs in each of the major water regions of the
Southwest—63 percent in the Arkansas-White-Red, 66 percent in the
Texas Gulf, and 67 percent in the Rio Grande.
Tables 13-3 through 13-6 present data on water withdrawal and
consumption by major use category for each of the 13 states. While
total water withdrawals are about the same for the two regions in
our study area, water consumption is more than four times higher in
Region 6 than in Region 4. In Region 6, 57 percent of the water
withdrawn is consumed, while in Region 4, only 14 percent of the
water withdrawn is consumed. These differences reflect the signif-
icance of irrigated agriculture throughout Region 6—agriculture
consumes about six times as much water in Region 6 as it does in
Region 4.
Within Region 6, agriculture is the major water consumer in
each state, representing from 60 percent to 92 percent of state
consumption (see tables 13-3 and 13-4). In Arkansas, New Mexico,
and Texas, agriculture accounts for 90 percent or more of the water
consumption. Of these states, Texas is by far the largest water
consumer, accounting for 68 percent of total water consumption in
the region. As of 1975, industrial uses of water represented a
TABLE 13-3:
WATER WITHDRAWALS IN REGION 6, 1975a
(millions of gpd)
State
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas
Total
Agricul-
ture
2,292
(68%)
1,963
(21%)
3,673
(87%)
1,176
(57%)
17,525
(76%)
26,629
(63%)
Steam
Electric
427
(13)
2,868
(30)
64
(2)
230
(ID
758
(3)
4,347
(10)
Manufac-
turing
351
(10)
3,531
(37)
13
(1)
158
(8)
2,072
(9)
6,125
(15)
Domes-
tic
165
(5)
420
(4)
161
(4)
232
(11)
1,211
(5)
2,189
(5)
Other
141
(4)
778
(8)
290
(7)
251
(12)
1,413
(6)
2,873
(7)
State
Total
3,376
(100)
9,561
(100)
4,200
(101)
2,048
(99)
22,979
(99)
42,161
(100)
Source: Sheppard et al., 1980, Appendix C, Table C.2.
aSome row percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
13-11
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TABLE 13-4:
WATER CONSUMPTION IN REGION 6, 1975a
(millions of gpd)
State
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texasb
Total
Agricul-
ture
1,566
(92%)
1,296
(60%)
2,432
(92%)
972
(78%)
14,228
(86%)
20,494
(84%)
Steam
Electric
14
(1)
39
(2)
26
(1)
40
(3)
180
(1)
299
(1)
Manufac-
turing
46
(3)
254
(12)
16
(1)
43
(3)
565
(3)
923
(4)
- Domes-
tic
48
(3)
227
(11)
73
(3)
95
(8)
1,040
(6)
1,483
(6)
Other
31
(2)
342
(16)
98
(4)
95
(8)
571
(3)
1,137
(5)
State
Total
1,704
(101)
2, 158
(101)
2,646
(101)
1,246
(100)
16,584
(99)
24,338
(100)
Source: Shepherd et al., 1980, Appendix C, Table C.2.
aSome row percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
bWater consumption in Texas for steam electric, manufacturing,
and domestic uses have been updated by recent data from the State
of Texas—therefore these data do not correspond to those found
in Shepherd et al (1980). Source of updated data is personal
communication, Texas Department of Water Resources, September 23,
1981.
very small percentage of water use in each state, with the excep-
tion of Louisiana which had 12 percent of its consumption accounted
for by manufacturing. Steam electric generation accounted for only
1 percent of Region 6 water use in 1975.
In Region 4, Florida accounts for 56 percent of the region's
water consumption, again reflecting the importance of irrigated
agriculture to that state's economy. Only in Florida and Missis-
sippi does agricultural water use account for a majority of the
water consumption. Next to agriculture, the second largest water
use in Region 4 is domestic, accounting for 17 percent. In two
states (North Carolina and South Carolina), the primary use is
domestic. This largely reflects the fact that these states have
very small consumptive water requirements. Manufacturing accounts
for 14 percent of the consumption in Region 4 and is the primary
consumptive user in Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
13-12
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Steam electric, which includes coal, gas, and nuclear genera-
tion facilities, represents the largest category of water with-
drawal in Region 4, accounting for 58 percent. However, consump-
tion of water by steam electric is quite low, representing only 5
percent of consumptive use in Region 4. Large withdrawals with
small consumption for steam electric use were attributed to the
prevailing use of once-through cooling processes. In the past,
over 99 percent of the withdrawals have been returned to the
receiving stream at an elevated temperature. This practice no
longer continues because of the Federal Water Pollution Control
Act of 1972, which restricts thermal discharges. This restric-
tion, which is important to water quality, will lead to increased
water consumption for steam electric generation (see tables 13-5
and 13-6).
TABLE 13-5:
WATER WITHDRAWALS IN REGION 4, 1975a
(millions of gpd)
State
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North
Carolina
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Agricul-
ture
44
(<1%)
3,193
(44%)
194
(4%)
53
(1%)
383
(27%)
111
(2%)
36
d%)
48
(1%)
4,062
(11%)
Steam
Electric
4,472
(70)
1,979
(27)
2,475
(57)
2,606
(73)
265
(19)
2,892
(65)
2,558
(73)
4,865
(67)
22,112
(58)
Manufac-
turing
1,427
(22)
708
(10)
905
(21)
546
(15)
497
(35)
734
(17)
457
(13)
1,886
(26)
7,165
(19)
Domes-
tic
310
(5)
1,049
(14)
484
(ID
161
(5)
187
(13)
546
(12)
342
(10)
326
(4)
3,405
(9)
Other
180
(3)
375
(5)
277
(6)
209
(6)
98
(7)
158
(4)
130
(4)
176
(2)
1,703
(4)
State
Total
6,433
(101)
7,304
(100)
4,336
(99)
3,575
(100)
1,431
(101)
4,442
(100)
3,522
(101)
7,301
(100)
38,344
(101)
Source: Shepherd et al., 1980, Appendix C, Table C.2.
aSome row percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
13-13
-------
TABLE 13-6: WATER CONSUMPTION IN REGION 4, 1975a
(millions of gpd)
State
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North
Carolina
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Source: She
Agricul-
ture
41
(12%)
2,557
(73%)
155
(35%)
48
(16%)
284
(63%)
89
(24%)
30
(15%)
45
(15%)
3,249
(59%)
ipherd et
Steam
Electric
33
(10)
17
(1)
41
(9)
54
(18)
8
(2)
39
(11)
35
(17)
33
(11)
260
(5)
al., 1980,
Manufac-
turing
186
(55)
123
(4)
72
(16)
88
(30)
55
(12)
52
(14)
45
(22)
131
(44)
752
(14)
Appendix
Domes-
tic
52
(15)
302
(10)
137
(31)
45
(15)
78
(17)
164
(44)
73
(36)
58
(20)
909
(17)
C, Table
Other
29
(9)
103
(3)
44
(10)
61
(21)
27
(6)
25
(7)
18
(9)
28
(9)
335
(6)
C.2.
State
Total
341
(100)
3,102
(101)
449
(101)
296
(100)
452
(100)
370
(100)
201
(99)
295
(99)
5,506
(101)
aSome row percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.
13-14
-------
13.3 FUTURE TRENDS AND ISSUES
13.3.1 Key Driving Forces
Water use patterns in the Sunbelt will change in response to
increased population, industrial and energy growth, water pollution
regulations, and changing land use patterns. Projections for water
consumption for Region 6 and Region 4 from the Second National
Water Assessment are shown in Figure 13-5 (U.S., WRC, 1978b).1
In Region 6, consumption is projected to remain at about 23
billion gpd through the year 2000.2 This projection largely
reflects the inadequacy of surface and ground water supplies to
support increased demands--for example, rapid depletion of the
Ogallala Aquifer has already forced some shift from irrigated to
dry land farming. Water consumption in agriculture is projected
to decrease by 17 percent by the year 2000, as shown in Table
13-7. This decrease represents about 3.5 billion gpd. Off-
setting this decline is an expected 3.4 billion gpd increase in
steam electric and manufacturing uses. Over 70 percent of the
increase in steam electric uses are projected for Texas, while
most of the manufacturing increase is projected for Texas (65
percent) and Louisiana (26 percent).
Water consumption by domestic and other users is projected to
remain stable during the next 20 years despite rapid population
increases in much of the region. For example, domestic uses are
projected to decrease 21 percent by the year 2000, and will only
represent about 5 percent of total regional consumption by that
year. These projections assume improvements in delivery systems
and increased efficiency of use. If these improvements do not
occur, the stress on water supplies in Region 6 will increase.
In contrast to Region 6, Region 4 is projected to experience a
doubling of fresh water consumption by the year 2000—from 5.5 bil-
lion gpd to about 12 billion gpd. Most of this increase can be
attributed to manufacturing and steam electric demands. As shown
in Table 13-8, steam electric uses are projected to increase by
over 900 percent by 2000, with large increases expected in every
state except Florida and Mississippi. Manufacturing uses are ex-
pected to increase by over 300 percent, largely in Florida, Ala-
bama, Tennessee, and Georgia. In 1975, steam electric uses were
estimated to account for about 18 percent of regional water
consumption; by 2000, they are projected to account for about 50
percent.
-1-See Appendix A for a discussion of the methodology and
assumptions used to generate estimates of future trends.
2One million gallons per day equals 1,122 AFY. Thus Region 6
consumption is about 25 MMAFY.
13-15
-------
Region IV
12.5-
1975
T
1985
Other
Domestic
Manufacturing
Steam-electric
Agriculture
I
200O
9
O.
(0
c
o
"5
o>
Region VI
25-
20-
15-
10-
5-
1975
1985
Other
Domestic
Manufacturing
Steam-electric
Agriculture
I
2000
Figure 13-5: Projected Water Consumption in the Sunbelt
Source: U.S., WRC, 1978b.
13-16
-------
TABLE 13-7: WATER CONSUMPTION IN REGION 6, 1975 and 2000
(billions of gpd)
State
Arkansas
Louisiana
New Mexico
Oklahoma
Texas a
Total
Percentage
Change
1975-2000
Year
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
Agricul-
ture
1.57
1.95
1.30
1.08
2.43
2.04
.97
.97
14.23
10.88
20.50
16.92
-17%
Steam
Electric
.01
.06
.04
.16
.03
.02
.04
.22
.18
1.03
.30
1.49
524%
Manufac-
turing
.05
.19
.25
.82
.02
.04
.04
.09
.57
1.93
.93
3.07
250%
Domes-
tic
.05
.06
.23
.26
.07
.08
.10
.12
1.04
.58
1.49
1.10
21%
Other
.03
.04
.34
.48
.10
.14
.10
.13
.57
.71
1.14
1.50
32%
State
Total
1.71
2.30
2.16
2.80
2.65
2.32
1.25
1.53
16.59
15.13
24.36
24.08
2%
Source: Shepherd et al., 1980, Appendix C, Table C.2.
aData for Texas (1975) for steam electric, manufacturing, and domestic uses
have been updated by data from the State of Texas, Department of Water Re-
sources (1981). Therefore, these data do not correspond to those found in
Shepherd et al. (1980).
13-17
-------
TABLE 13-8: WATER CONSUMPTION IN REGION 4, 1975 and 2000
(billions of gpd)
State
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Mississippi
North
Carolina
South
Carolina
Tennessee
Total
Percentage
Increase
1975-2000
Year
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
1975
2000
Agricul-
ture
.04
.07
2.56
3.20
.16
.28
.05
.09
.28
.35
.09
.15
.03
.03
.05
.06
3.26
4.23
30%
Steam
Electric
.03
.51
.02
.17
.04
.40
.05
.35
.01
.11
.04
.44
.04
.35
.03
.47
.26
2.80
977%
Manufac-
turing
.19
.58
.12
.73
.07
.44
.09
.20
.05
.22
.05
.29
.05
.27
.13
.45
.75
3.18
324%
Domes-
tic
.05
.07
.30
.48
.14
.19
.05
.06
.08
.09
.16
.24
.07
.09
.06
.08
.91
1.30
43%
Other
.03
.05
.10
.17
.04
.07
.06
.09
.03
.04
.03
.04
.02
.03
.03
.05
.34
.54
59%
State
Total
.34
1.28
3.10
4.75
.45
1.38
.30
.79
.45
.81
.37
1.16
.21
.77
.30
1.11
5.52
12.05
118%
Source: Shepherd etal., 1980, Appendix C, Table C.2.
13-18
-------
Nationwide, withdrawals of water for manufacturing are pro-
jected to decline over the next two decades. However, in the Sun-
belt, it is projected to increase. By the year 2000, the South
Atlantic-Gulf region is projected to become the largest water
using region in both withdrawals and consumption. In 1975, this
region ranked fifth in water withdrawals, with only 8 percent of
total manufacturing withdrawals. Two growth factors contribute to
this projection: (1) the region is expected to continue to exper-
ience rapid population growth; and (2) the major projected growth
industries have high consumption rates and produce waste waters
that are less recyclable than most other water intensive indus-
tries. The Texas-Gulf region is projected to be third in water
consumption by 2000 (U.S., WRC, 1978b, pp. 42-44).
Specific information on manufacturing water use and growth
trends is presented in Table 13-9. Four key industries—chemical
and allied products, primary metals, paper and allied products,
and petroleum and coal products were estimated to account for 86
percent of fresh water consumption and 81 percent of withdrawals
in 1975. These four industries are already among the most impor-
tant industries in the Sunbelt and are projected to continue to
grow through the year 2010. Except for petroleum and coal pro-
ducts, these industries are projected to grow faster in Region 6
than in Region 4. In terms of absolute earnings, primary metals
and paper and allied products are more significant to Region 4
than Region 6.1
Estimates of water use by the chemical industry in the four
main water resource regions where it is located are presented in
Figure 13-6. Except for the Texas-Gulf region, fresh water with-
drawals are expected to show a dramatic reduction through the
year 2000. These reductions can be attributed to large-scale use
of saline water and intensive recycling of fresh water, in part to
comply with the Clean Water Act (see Chapter 14). As the industry
continues to move toward recycling, more than half of the with-
drawals nationwide are projected to be in the Texas-Gulf, Lower
Mississippi, and South Atlantic-Gulf regions (U.S., WRC, 1978b,
pt. 3, p. 45).
In contrast to reductions in withdrawals, consumption in the
chemical industry is projected to increase. This projection can
be attributed to the increased use of evaporative holding ponds
to meet the Clean Water Act goals and increased production levels.
As shown in Table 13-10, water consumption in the Texas-Gulf re-
gion is expected to increase by over 400 percent by the year 2000,
accounting for 38 percent of the industry's water consumption.
Similar trends are evident for paper manufacturing, primary
metals, and petroleum refining. That is, water withdrawals in
an elaboration of these trends, refer to Chapter 4.
13-19
-------
TABLE 13-9: MANUFACTURING WATER USE AND GROWTH PROJECTIONS
Water Usea
Industry
Gross Water
Use, 1975
(billion gpd)
Percent of
Manufacturing
Fresh Water
Withdrawals,
1975
Projected Growth
(earnings)13
Percentage Change:
1978-2010
Region 4 Region 6
Chemicals and
Allied Products
Primary Metals
40.1
28.2
26
34
+208
+220
+338
+381
Paper and
Allied Products 26.1
Petroleum and
Coal Products 23.7
Food and
Kindred Products 4.5
Transportation
Equipment 3 . 7
Textile Mill
Products 1.7
All Other
Manufacturing 8.6
16
5
5
3
1
10
+ 170
+360
+ 116
+233
+ 104
NC
+241
+ 153
+ 144
+226
+ 197
NC
NC = Not calculated.
aData taken from U.S., Water Resources Council, 1978b, pt. 3, pp. 43-51.
See Appendix for an overview of the methodology and assumptions of the
Second National Water Assessment.
Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980. These data are taken
from Tables 4-3 and 4-4, Chapter 4, of this report.
13-20
-------
OHIO REGION
LOWER MISSISSIPPI REGION
QC
LU
0.
CO
z
o
-I
ffi
TENNESSEE REGION
1975
TEXAS-GULF REGION
1985
2000
FRESH-WATER WITHDRAWALS
FRESH-WATER CONSUMPTION
Figure 13-6: Water Use by the Chemical Industry, 1975-2000
Source: U.S., WRC, 1978b, pt. 3, p. 47.
13-21
-------
TABLE 13-10:
WATER USE BY MAJOR INDUSTRIES IN KEY RESOURCE REGIONS,
(millions of gpd)
1975-2000
co
I
to
NJ
Withdrawals
Industry/Region
Chemicals
South Atlantic-Gulf
Ohio
Tennessee
Lower Mississippi
Texas -Gulf
Primary Metals
South Atlantic-Gulf
Ohio
Tennessee
Lower Mississippi
Texas-Gulf
Paper
South Atlantic-Gulf
Ohio
Tennessee
Lower Mississippi
Texas Gulf
Petroleum Refining
South Atlantic-Gulf
Ohio
Tennessee
Lower Mississippi
Texas Gulf
1975
870
3,261
1,520
2,251
586
270
6,346
77
535
588
2,111
224
381
517
245
28
114
0
441
312
2000
748
593
336
635
1,448
145
1,050
33
101
162
1,875
133
246
381
218
25
48
0
150
479
Percent
Change
-14
-82
-78
-72
+ 147
-46
-83
-57
-81
-72
-11
-41
-35
-26
-11
-11
-58
0
-66
+54
1975
165
168
81
141
271
51
467
12
29
60
262
23
41
46
38
12
23
0
66
170
2000
589
464
262
504
1,551
115
834
25
46
129
1,492
101
196
304
174
20
38
0
119
382
Consumption
Percent
Change
+256
+ 176
+223
+257
+472
+ 125
+ 79
+ 108
+ 59
+ 115
+469
+ 77
+378
+560
+357
+ 67
+ 65
0
+ 80
+ 125
Percent of
National Consumption
2000a
14
11
6
12
38
4
31
1
2
5
36
2
5
7
4
2
4
0
12
39
Source: Data compiled from U.S., Water Resources Council, 1978b, pt. 3, pp. 46-51. See Appendix
A for an overview of the methodology and assumptions of the Second National Water Assessment.
aThis column reflects the amount of water consumed by each industry for each particular region as
a percentage of the water consumed by that industry in all 21 U.S. Water Resource regions (nation-
wide consumption).
-------
these industries are projected to decline in response to recircu-
lation practices and the use of saline water. An exception to
this pattern is petroleum refining in the Texas-Gulf region; water
withdrawals are expected to increase by 54 percent from 1975 to
2000. In contrast, water consumption is expected to increase for
each of these industries through the year 2000. Both the Texas-
Gulf and South Atlantic-Gulf regions are expected to experience
large consumptive water increases for each major industrial user;
for example, consumption in paper manufacturing is expected to in-
crease over 450 percent by 2000.
13.3.2 Problems and Issues
Several water availability concerns will be important to the
future development of the Sunbelt. Four categories of problems
and issues which appear to be particularly significant will be
discussed below: ground water depletion, region-wide surface
water availability, completion of the Tennessee-Tombigbee Water-
way, and limitations of water management capabilities. These
four categories have been selected as among the most important
water concerns, based on three criteria: (1) they affect more
than one state; (2) they present serious economic or environmental
concerns; and (3) they are likely to have long-term consequences
to growth in the region.
A. Ground Water Depletion
Ground water is a significant resource—nationwide it is
estimated that there is far more ground water available than sur-
face water (U.S., WRC, 1978b, p. 11). However, in many areas
ground water resources have experienced long-term excessive uses.
As shown in Figure 13-7, areas where ground water has been mined
(pumped in excess of recharge) include large portions of New
Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas; along the Lower Mississippi region in
Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana; and along the coast of North
Carolina. In addition, specific problems are particularly notice-
able in southeastern Texas, Florida, and parts of Alabama.
Several problems can result from ground water overdraft.
Land subsidence is common in many of these areas. For example, in
the Houston-Galveston area, a foot or more of subsidence occurred
in over 2,400 square miles from 1954 to 1973, causing abandonment
of housing divisions, and over 30 million dollars of damage
(Grabrysch, 1976, pp. 16-24). Municipalities depending on ground
water have faced water shortages and increased pumping costs.
Pumping of fresh ground water can cause salt water intrusion and
gradual reduction of surface flows in downstream reaches.
One issue regarding these threats to ground water is the ade-
quacy of state management systems. Table 13-11 indicates the
13-23
-------
Araa In which significant ground-watar
ovardraft la occurring
BOUNDARIES
Watar resources raglon
Subraglon
Dacllning ground-watar lavala
it Diminished aprlngtiow and atraamflow
jaV Formation of flsauraa and aubaldanca
• Saline watar Intrusion Into fresh-water aqulfara
Figure 13-7: Ground Water Overdraft and Related Problems
Source: U.S., WRC, 1978b, pt. 2, p. 12.
extent of permit procedures in the 13 Sunbelt states. This infor-
mation indicates that few states have developed ground water man-
agement systems, largely reflecting the historical abundance of
the resource. Only three states have a statewide permit system
(Georgia, Kentucky, and Oklahoma). In each of these states,
either domestic or agricultural uses (or both) are exempt from
permit requirements.
Ground water can also be managed by designating critical areas
where the available supply is being rapidly depleted or where con-
tinued withdrawals could lead to contamination through the intru-
sion of brackish water. Once areas are designated, a state,
local, or regional agency can be empowered to regulate ground
water use by establishing maximum pumping rates, apportioning the
existing supply, closing the aquifer to new uses, or scheduling
uses. Four states (Florida, Louisiana, New Mexico, and Texas)
have such designated areas and four others (Mississippi, North
Carolina, Oklahoma, and South Carolina) are authorized to estab-
lish such areas. Conjunctive management—the recognition of
13-24
-------
TABLE 13-11: GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT IN SUNBELT STATES
Permit Procedures
State
None
StatewIde
Permit System
Designated
Management Areas
Conjunctive
Management
I
NJ
U1
Alabama
Arkansas
FI or I da
GeorgI a
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Governor's Task Force
on Water Policy study-
Ing alternative man-
agement systems.
Permit required from
Environmental Protection
Dlv. for withdrawals In
excess of 100,000 gal/day;
agriculture exempt.
Permit required from Dept.
of Natural Resources for
withdrawals In excess of
10,000 gal/day; domestic
and agriculture exempt.
Five regional management
districts regulate surface
and ground water through
permit system.
Dept. of Environmental Regula-
tion emphasizes conjunctive
management in State programs.
Ground water conservation
district regulates use in
five-parish capital area.
Board of Water Commissioners
authorized to designate
capacity use areas and reg-
ulate use.
(continued)
-------
TABLE 13-11: (Continued)
Permit Procedures
State
None
Statew i de
Permit System
Designated
Management Areas
Conjunctive
Management
oo
I
NJ
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ok Iahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Permit required from
Water Resources Board;
domestic uses exempt.
X
X
State Engineer authorized
to designate distinct ground
water basins and manage use;
29 basins designated
Environmental Management
Commission authorized to
designate capacity use areas
and regulate use.
Well spacing and metering
may be required to protecf
the safe yield of declining
aquifers
Water Resources Commission
authorized to designate
capacity use areas and
regulate use.
Five ground water districts
regulate use; controls on
withdrawals in Harrls-
Galveston Coastal Subsidence
Dist.
Ground water use may not Impair
surface water rights.
Conjunctive management employed
In capacity use areas.
Emphasis in state planning
on conjunctive management.
Dept. Water Resources studying
conjunctive management; surface
water being developed to
replace some ground water use.
Source: U.S., WRC, 1981,
-------
surface and ground water interrelations and coordination of their
use—can also be used to improve state management capacity. Four
states (Florida, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Oklahoma) have
such systems and Texas is studying its applicability.
The following discussion highlights ground water problems for
three areas: the High Plains states affected by the Ogallala
Aquifer, southeastern Florida, and the Brunswick and Savannah
areas of the South Atlantic Gulf.
1. Depletion of the Ogallala Aquifer. The Ogallala Aquifer
runs throughout the High Plains states of Nebraska, Kansas, and
Colorado and three Sunbelt states—Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas
(see Figure 13-8). The Ogallala Formation contains approximately
2 billion acre-feet of water (about 650 trillion gallons). How-
ever, over most of the area, water is being withdrawn for irriga-
tion in quantities considerably in excess of the natural recharge
rate—by as much as 25 times the recharge rate in Texas and Okla-
homa. Irrigation wells have increased dramatically in the Okla-
homa Panhandle and declining water table problems are evident
throughout the area. For example, as shown in Figure 13-9, the
water table in Hale County in the Texas Panhandle has been declin-
ing steadily since the early 1960's.
Significant advantages have resulted from the use of this
ground water. From 1950 through the mid-1970's, irrigated agri-
culture increased at an average rate of 8 percent per year.l Over
16 million acres of food and fiber crops are irrigated in the High
Plains from this ground water, and this activity developed into
the dominant economic sector in the High Plains. Between 1954 and
1973, feed grain production in Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas in-
creased 275 percent, spurring the development of the feedlot in-
dustry. By 1973, the High Plains region was producing 40 percent
of the beef marketed in the U.S. Associated industries producing
irrigation equipment, farm machinery, chemicals, and processing
plants also grew because they were necessary to support the re-
gion 's agricultural economy.
This economy depends heavily on the Ogallala, but ground water
overdraft has been increasing for years—the annual overdraft ex-
ceeds 14 MMAFY (12.5 billion gpd) equaling the natural flow of the
Colorado River. Since many locations, particularly in the south-
ern High Plains, have negligible recharge, exhaustion of the water
supply could occur within 10 years. In addition, the costs of
pumping have soared. In 1977, the cost of electricity to pump one
•'•Much of the following information is taken from The High
Plains Study (U.S., Dept. of Commerce, 1980). This 6 million
dollar study is intended to examine alternatives to promote the
economic vitality of the High Plains Region.
13-27
-------
OGALLALA AQUIFER
TX
Figure 13-8: The Ogallala Aquifer
Source: McGuinness, 1964.
13-28
-------
OJ
I
to
0)
o
03
0)
£1
0)
LL
Observation well groundwater level at Plainview, TX
80
90
100
T3
a 110
120
130
140
•W-K
\
TTTf
Figure 13-9: Ground Water Mining, Ogallala Aquifer, Hale County, Texas
Source: Texas, Dept. of Water Resources, 1980.
-------
acre-foot of irrigation was about 17 dollars. By 1992, the cost
is projected to be about 64 (1977) dollars due to increasing
energy costs and declining water tables. This will affect nation-
al food supplies and the regional economy. Thus, a range of aug-
mentation and conservation alternatives are being assessed for
dealing with the depletion of the Ogallala.
2. Water Problems in Southeastern Florida. The Biscayne
Aquifer, recently designated by EPA under the Safe Drinking Water
Act of 1974 as the sole source of potable water for over three
million people in southeastern Florida (EPA Journal, 1980),
underlies nearly all of Dade County, parts of Broward and Palm
Beach counties, and much of the Everglades (see Figure 13-10).
Under normal conditions, the aquifer is highly productive with
well yields typically exceeding 3,250 AFY (2.9 million gpd).
However, both the quantity and quality of water in the aquifer
are threatened.
Since rainfall provides most of the aquifer's recharge, low
flows during seasonal dry periods or dry years have resulted in
overdrafts by agricultural and domestic users, thus permitting
salt water intrusion into water wells in the greater Miami area.
For example, the average rainfall of 50 to 60 inches per year pro-
vides sufficient water, but in dry years only half that may fall.
During a drought in 1971, eight of Miami's wells had to be shut
down because overdrafts resulted in saltwater intrusion (Carter,
1976). In addition, there is considerable variation in precipita-
tion over the course of a year, with the critical low for the year
usually occurring by the month of May. In 1975, agricultural
withdrawals of 7.5 MMAFY (6.7 billion gpd) in May were twice that
for January (U.S., WRC, 1978b).
Despite past efforts by Dade County authorities to implement
water and growth management practices, urbanization has been
largely uncontrolled. Urban development now blankets the north-
eastern corner of Dade County and growth has recently spread five
to ten miles west of the coastal ridge into the eastern edge of
the Everglades, encroaching upon the vital recharge areas of the
aquifer (Greene, 1979). This area will continue to have a growth
management problem. The population in Dade County is expected to
increase by one-third over the next 20 years (Smith, 1980). Since
the carrying capacity of the aquifer is fixed, it seems likely
that south Florida will be faced with even more critical water
shortages and contamination problems.
3. Depletion of Ground Water in Brunswick and Savannah.
Despite ample rainfall in the eastern half of the Sunbelt, some
urban areas on the coastal plain find quality water resources in
short supply. In several cities, water tables have been lowered,
and saltwater intrusion has made the water unsuitable for public
13-30
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TYPICAL YIELD
(6-inch well)
Biscayne Aquifer
(1200 gpm)
Floridan Aquifer
(800 gpm)
Other Aquifers
(300 gpm)
Figure 13-10: Principal Sources of Ground Water in Florida
Source: Parker, Odum, and Cooley, 1981.
and industrial use. Without improved water management policies,
fresh ground water supplies are expected to become increasingly
scarce in the future.
In Brunswick, Georgia, saltwater intrusion began in the 1940's.
Since that time, five of the city's wells have been closed because
of saltwater contamination (Neal, Jackson, and Lowry, 1980).
Although additional wells have been drilled, they are also
threatened by saltwater intrusion. Three industries account for 90
percent of the 125,000 AFY extracted from the principal aquifer in
the Brunswick area (Neal, Jackson and Lowry, 1980). Several
industries in the area have volunteered to cut back their water
use; for example, Brunswick Pulp and Paper Company plans to reduce
water withdrawal from 75,000 to 64,000 AFY (67 to 57 million gpd)
over the next decade. The Hercules Chemical Company has cut con-
sumption in half and plans to further reduce water use from 20,000
AFY to 14,000 AFY (Neal, Jackson, and Lowry, 1980).
13-31
-------
The area around Savannah, Georgia, is similarly threatened by
a lowering of the water table in their Principal Artesian Aquifer,
resulting in lowered water pressure and saltwater intrusion.
Saltwater intrusion under Savannah has already left wells dry on
Hilton Head Island, South Carolina. If water consumption in
Savannah increases 22,000 AFY (20 million gpd) in the near future,
ground water may face depletion by the turn of the century (Neal,
Jackson, and Lowry, 1980).
Savannah has a larger population than Brunswick and state and
local officials are trying to attract new industries to the area.
The coast offers industries many advantages, and presently there
are 11,500 acres in Savannah zoned for heavy industrial use. Wa-
ter problems in the coastal plain areas of Georgia are compounded
by recent increases in irrigated agriculture, largely from ground
water. Functioning irrigation wells in the state have increased
55 percent per year recently (Prunty and Brandhorst, 1980). The
total irrigated acreage in the state nearly doubled from 1975 to
1977 (Kundell, 1978).
B. Region-Wide Surface Water Availability
As has been suggested throughout this chapter, adequacy of
water supplies to meet expanding industrial and population needs
is already a concern in many parts of the study area. Figure
13-11 shows broad areas where water availability problems already
exist or are projected to occur by the year 2000 (U.S., Water Re-
sources Council, 1978b, pt. 2, pp. 3-14). Problems include both
inadequate streamflow and ground water overdraft. Several site-
specific water supply problems also exist throughout the Sunbelt
but are not shown in this figure.
This overview reflects the conventional wisdom that water
availability is a well-recognized problem throughout Region 6,
but is often not considered a general problem in Region 4. One
important factor which challenges this notion is the relationship
between water quality and water availability; many studies on
future water availability do not adequately consider this rela-
tionship. Figure 13-12 indicates areas experiencing water qual-
ity problems from point and nonpoint source pollution of surface
water and ground waters (see Chapter 14). Areas experiencing
multiple water quality impacts include the Gulf coast from Gal-
veston, Texas, through Mobile Bay, Alabama, to the west coast of
Florida, the coast of North Carolina, and several areas throughout
Kentucky. This information suggests that water availability may
well be a problem in the Southeast since water quality degradation
could limit the future uses of water, especially for domestic pur-
poses .
13-32
-------
Groundwater overdraft
Inadequate surface water
Figure 13-11: Current Region-Wide Problems: Water Availability
Source: Adapted from U.S., WRC, 1978b, pt. 2, pp. 3-14.
There are many sources of these pollution problems.1 Most sur-
face water point sources of pollution are municipal or industrial.
Coliform bacteria from municipal waste or feedlot drainage and
nutrients from municipal and industrial discharges constitute the
majority of the point source problems. Polychlorinated biphenyls,
polybrominated biphenyls, polyvinyl chloride and related indus-
trial chemicals, heavy metals (mercury, zinc, copper, cadmium,
lead, etc.), and heat from manufacturing and power generation are
the other identified point sources of pollution.
Most nonpoint sources of pollution are irrigation runoff with
high concentrations of dissolved solids, pesticides and other
agricultural chemicals, and urban runoff. Mine drainage is a
problem mainly in Kentucky, Tennessee, and northern Alabama and
saltwater intrusion is a nonpoint problem mainly along the Louis-
iana and Texas coasts.
*Refer to Chapter 14, Water Quality, for an elaboration of
these concerns.
13-33
-------
CO
I
u>
£>.
Non-point source
surface water pollution
Point source
surface water pollution
Groundwater quality problems
13-12.. Significant
1978b,
Pt. II,
pp
-------
Ground water pollution results from both natural and man-made
causes. High levels of minerals or other dissolved solids occur
in several parts of the study area including New Mexico and west
Texas, along the Mississippi-Alabama border and west Florida.
Saltwater intrusion occurs along many coastal areas and some in-
land areas such as central Texas from overpumping. Specific
sources of ground water pollution include municipal and industrial
wastes, landfill leachate, irrigation return waters, wastes from
well drilling, and the well injection of industrial waste liquids.
In addition, increased competition for water will occur in
many areas already experiencing multiple water quality problems.
As identified in Section 13.3.1, this includes growth of the chem-
ical industry in the Texas Gulf Coast and South Atlantic-Gulf re-
gions, primary metals in Kentucky and Tennessee, paper products in
the South Atlantic-Gulf, and petroleum refining in the Texas Gulf
and Lower Mississippi regions. In the Texas Lignite area, signi-
ficant increases in electric power generation will increase the
stress on water resources which are already scarce and affected by
water quality impacts (see Chapter 6). Increased agricultural
production for food export and biomass development is expected to
occur in many parts of the study area (see Chapter 9), and rapid
population increases are projected in Florida, Texas, and along
most of the Gulf coast (see Chapter 3).
Increased competition for water and water quality protection
will be important factors to most Sunbelt states by the year 2000.
Water resource limitations could force restrictions in the level
of growth, including growth of the energy industry in Texas and
expansion of the chemical industry in the South Atlantic-Gulf re-
gion. In order to avoid limitations on desired growth and to pre-
serve adequate quality of water resources, states and other levels
of government, working in concert with private sector interests,
will need to enhance their capacity to manage water resources. Of
primary concern in this regard will be the need for states to con-
sider modifications of riparian water doctrines, which create sev-
eral barriers to allocating scarce water resources among competing
demands, and to improve their capability to manage quality and
quantity aspects of the resource in an integrated fashion (see
Section 13.3.2D below).
C. The Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway
The Tennessee-Tombigbee (Tenn-Tom) Waterway is intended to
provide a 232-mile navigation channel from Demopolis, Alabama to
the Tennessee River (see Figure 13-13). This channel is divided
into three sections: a 148-mile portion that lies within the Tom-
bigbee River; a 44-mile section which will parallel the East Fork
of the Tombigbee; and a 40-mile divide cut which will connect the
Black Warrier-Tombigbee Waterway which runs south to the port of
Mobile. The Tenn-Tom was first authorized in 1942 and funded in
13-35
-------
TENNESSEE
TOMBIGBEE
WATERWAY
Canal
River improvement
Figure 13-13: Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway
Source: Smith, 1981, p. 741.
13-36
-------
1971. The waterway, now more than half finished, is scheduled for
completion in 1988. Current estimates of the total costs are at
about 2 billion dollars, compared to estimated costs of 323 mil-
lion dollars in 1971 (Smith, 1981).
The major benefit of the waterway is to provide a more effi-
cient and economic transportation route from the midcontinent and
eastern U.S. to the Gulf of Mexico. This may be particularly
valuable with increased coal production and trade. In addition,
recreation, fish and wildlife, and area development benefits have
been identified (U.S., GAO, 1981, p. 5). As has been true for
virtually every recent water development project, controversy has
emerged over whether these benefits outweigh the costs of the pro-
ject. In 1971, when construction of the project was approved, the
Army Corps of Engineers estimated the benefit/cost ratio to be 1.6
to 1. A restudy for the Corps in 1976 reduced the benefit/cost
ratio to 1.08 to 1. Estimates of both the benefits and the costs
have been subject to considerable controversy, as has been the
question of the appropriate discount rate (Morris, 1980; Pfrommer,
1980). The General Accounting Office found that several potential
beneficiaries of the project were no longer in existence (U.S.,
GAO, 1981), and the Congressional Research Service determined that
the waterway might not have any advantage over the Mississippi
(Thompson, 1981).
Rather than continue the endless debate over cost/benefit
ratios, which have not helped to solve the controversy over the
Tenn-Tom, a more productive policy would be to recognize that
adverse environmental consequences would result from the waterway.
If the political decision is made to complete it, plans should
include measures to mitigate or avoid the adverse consequences.
These include water quality degradation, effects on ground water,
and ecological problems.
Two concerns have been raised about water quality (U.S., Army
Corps of Engineers, 1971):
• Waste assimilation capacity of existing streams will be
greatly reduced when streams are replaced by navigation
pools. The reduction could result from channelization
and cutting off river bends, and the associated loss of
natural shallow water areas, floodplains, riffles, and
the aquatic vegetation in each area; and
• The portion of the Tennessee River which will supply
water to the Tenn-Tom is influenced by heavy industrial-
ization and contains relatively high levels of nutrients,
heavy metals, and organic toxicants.
Impacts of the Waterway on ground water resources is more un-
certain than for surface waters. Although portions of the river
section and the canal section may serve as sources of ground water
13-37
-------
recharge, the 175-foot deep divide cut will act as a drain for
aquifers in the area. This includes an artesian aquifer in the
lower region of the cut. A cut of 40 feet has previously been
made in this area without adverse effects, but the magnitude and
areal extent of the Waterway cut is not certain (U.S., Army Corps
of Engineers, 1971). The potential for damages to ground water
resources led Representative Jamie Whitten (D, Mississippi), to
introduce a bill which would provide relief for losses of water
supply due to the Tenn-Tom.
Ecological impacts include loss of terrestrial, riparian, and
aquatic habitat. The project will require the commitment of
70,000 acres of land for construction and subsequent operation and
maintenance. About 40,000 acres will be completely inundated. Of
the total committed land area, 13,000 acres are classified as pas-
ture and croplands. Approximately 56,000 acres are forested, with
31,000 acres consisting of bottomland hardwoods or other suitable
wildlife habitat (U.S., Army Corps of Engineers, 1971). In addi-
tion, areas not directly impacted by construction of the Waterway
may be subject to waterlogging of the soil and resultant changes
in the plant and animal communities (Claflin, 1980).
Impacts on fish and wildlife resources along the Waterway can
be mitigated (U.S., Army Corps of Engineers, 1971). The Corps
has created an aquatic-terrestrial interface along the canal sec-
tion to provide 75 miles of 'edge' that could be managed for wild-
life and recreation opportunities. In addition, the Tennessee-
Tombigbee project may provide intermittent flooding for waterfowl
areas managed by the state of Mississippi. No specific mitigation
proposals entailing federal responsibilities were included in the
environmental statement. In the ten years since the initial ana-
lysis, the Fish and Wildlife Service and the Army Corps of Engi-
neers have developed a series of mitigation alternatives, but none
have been implemented and there is no Congressional authorization
for land acquisition for the purposes of mitigation (Claflin,
1980; Blackwelder, 1979). For mitigation of the extensive loss of
diverse habitat types, the Army Corps of Engineers is relying on
the creation of 40,000 acres of lake fishing area and a potential
tailwater fishery in the canal section.
D. Water Management Capabilities
Much of the discussion in this chapter suggests that there
will be an increasing need for water resource management in the
Sunbelt. In the Southwest, this need already exists because the
area is water short and it will face increasing pressures from
energy development, population growth, and expansion of industries
such as chemical and pulp and allied products. In the Southeast,
the need for water management has been less apparent. In fact,
historical water abundance in this area has led to the widespread
use of the riparian water system which allows relatively
13-38
-------
uncontrolled water withdrawals. However, increased concern over
water quality problems in the Southeast and new demands resulting
from population growth, primary metals production, paper and allied
products, and other industries are likely to create more stress on
water resources.
Thus, in many parts of the Sunbelt the availability of ade-
quate water supplies may be an important constraint on growth.
For example, municipalities are facing increased responsibilities
for provision of water supply and protection of water quality with
fewer resources. The rapid metropolitan growth throughout much of
the Sunbelt (see Chapter 3) will increase municipal water manage-
ment problems and limit growth in some areas. Industries which
require reliable water supplies may find growth more costly be-
cause of the need to develop or transport water, or they may find
growth to be impossible in some areas.
Improved water management can be accomplished in a variety of
ways, including development of water resources, more efficient
water use, improving institutional capacities, and improving in-
formation about water resources. Regardless of the specific stra-
tegies chosen, it is apparent that states and localities will be
primarily responsible for designing and financing new initia-
tives.! In order to meet this challenge, states and municipali-
ties will first need to identify and assess the severity of their
problems before they can select water policies appropriate to the
growth pressures facing them. Among the specific needs in this
regard are the following:
• Assessment of the adequacy of both riparian and appro-
priation systems for managing water conflicts;
• Assessment of the adequacy of organizational arrangements
affecting water resources, including whether fragmented
or centralized arrangements are more appropriate;
• Assessment of the adequacy of information bases about
water resources, including monitoring of ground water
quality, knowledge of current uses of water, and future
trends in surface water quality;
• Assessment of the potential for interstate conflicts over
surface and ground water resources and whether new inter-
state arrangements are needed for emerging problems; and
trend toward increased state responsibility was begun
under the Carter Administration and continues in the Reagan Admin-
istration. Carrey Carruthers, Assistant Secretary of Interior for
Land and Water Resources, recently said that states would be left
to their devices, regardless of cost (Bean, 1981a).
13-39
-------
• Assessment of the adequacy of current policies to protect
instream flow needs, including hydroelectric power
generation, navigation, recreation opportunities, waste
assimilation, maintenance of ecosystems, floodplain
wetlands, and aesthetic qualities.
Recognition of these needs has been increasing in the Sunbelt.
At a recent state water conference, Oklahoma Governor Nigh stated
that "water is the major issue of the '80s" (Bean, 1981b, p. 21).
In addition, new water management strategies v/ill need to be
developed to integrate water quality and water availability con-
cerns. As one example of innovative approaches, El Reno, Okla-
homa, a city of 25,000, was faced with state requirements to
upgrade its waste treatment plant and the prospect of water short-
ages in the future. In response, the city developed a total water
resource project combining elements of drinking water supply,
water conservation, land treatment of wastewater, and agricultural
production. Under contract with a local farmer growing crops on
465 acres, the farmer conveys to the city the use of all ground
water rights. The city uses the water rights to supply drinking
water to its residents. In turn, the city collects all sanitary
wastewater, pretreats it, and delivers it back to the farmer in
pressure pipelines. The city has furnished, installed, and main-
tains self-propelled irrigation sprinklers covering at least 465
acres. El Reno also provides the equipment and the necessary
technical expertise to analyze samples and data required for moni-
toring the land treatment system. The monitoring includes measur-
ing the wastewater quality, the ground water quality and direction
of flow, and the soil condition, quality, and productivity. The
city pays for most of the electrical costs for pumping. The
farmer conveys his water rights free of charge, and will pay the
city a total of $100,000 during the 20-year contract for the
nutrients in the water.
On the state level, Florida has made the most dramatic changes
in water policy. Water in Florida has been heavily managed; for
example, the State requires permits for water uses, in significant
contrast to strict riparian or appropriation doctrines. However,
during the past several years, pressures have increased to develop
more stringent policies for managing water and protecting water
quality. In part, these pressures arose from dissatisfactions
with Florida's system of managing water by five dispersed agencies
(Crow, 1981, p. 1). The new Florida water policy has several pro-
visions affecting water resources throughout the state, but it
also decentralizes authority among water management districts to
reflect the variation in the water situation among different parts
of the state. Among the most significant provisions of the policy
are the following (Crow, 1981, pp. 1-3):
13-40
-------
• Water management programs must emphasize conservation
of water and encourage the use and reuse of water of
the lowest acceptable quality;
• Water management programs must utilize and protect
natural water management systems, including wetlands,
floodplains, and aquifer recharge areas;
• Water management programs must establish minimum flows
to protect water resources and environmental values
associated with marine, estuarine, fresh water, and
wetlands ecology; and
• Water management programs must encourage nonstructural
solutions to water resource problems.
13.4 SUMMARY
Table 13-12 summarizes water availability problems and issues
for the Sunbelt. Four problem areas have been identified in this
chapter: ground water depletion, region-wide water shortages,
completion of the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway, and water manage-
ment capabilities. For each of these categories, Table 13-12
identifies causal factors, the nature and seriousness of the prob-
lem, and associated policy concerns.
Two primary conclusions can be drawn from this chapter.
First, a number of causal factors will stress the water resources
of the Sunbelt. Among the most significant of these are: (1)
increased agricultural production throughout Region 6 and in
Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky; (2) continuing population in-
creases, particularly in Texas, Florida, and along the Gulf Coast;
(3) expanded energy development, particularly in Texas and the
Appalachian region; (4) growth of the chemical industry in Texas,
Louisiana, and the South Atlantic-Gulf; (5) production of paper
products, primarily in Arkansas and the South Atlantic Gulf; (6)
primary metals production in Kentucky and Tennessee; and (7)
petroleum refining in the Texas-Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi
regions. While none of these factors by themselves will create
water shortages, their multiple effects will produce stress on
water resources which has not been experienced in most of the
Sunbelt.
Second, because of these factors, the possibility for water
shortages in much of the Sunbelt by the year 2000 must be taken
seriously. Shortages are already common in the Southwest and
ground water depletion in the Southern High Plains and Texas-Gulf
Coast areas is causing serious economic concern. However, it is
often not recognized that such shortages are increasingly likely
in the Southeast because of new demands for water and serious
13-41
-------
TABLE 13-12: PROBLEM CHARACTERIZATION MATRIX: WATER AVAILABILITY
Impact or
Problem
Ground water
depletion
Type of
Causal Problem
Factors Created
• Irrigated • Economic
agriculture
• Ecological
• Population
growth
• Industrial
growth
- Chemicals
- Pulp and
paper
- etc.
Duration
This Is an Immedi-
ate prob 1 em wh I ch
will worsen over
the next decade.
It Is expected to
remain a problem
through 2010.
Pervasiveness
Prob 1 em w I 1 1 be
pervasive across
the Sunbelt with
most serious In-
stance occurring
In southern High
Plains (Ogal lala
Aquifer), along
Texas Gulf coast,
and South Atlantic-
Gulf (BIscayne
Aquifer In Flor-
ida, coastal areas
of Georgia, S.
Carol Ina).
Magnitude/
Seriousness
Economic Impacts
can be severe,
e.g., depletion of
Oga 1 1 a 1 a cou 1 d
Influence economy
of entire High
Plains region.
Growth cou 1 d be
restricted In
many areas (e.g.,
Savannah/Bruns-
wick).
Adequacy of water
Pol icy Problems
Few states have
adequate legal/
regulatory struc-
ture to protect
ground water re-
sources.
1 ntergovernmenta 1
cooperation will
be required to
deal with many
ground water prob-
lems (e.g., Ogal-
lala).
u>
I
£»
to
for population
will be threatened
(southern Florida).
Reg 1 on-w 1 de
water
shortages
• Increased ag- • Economic
rlcultural
production • Ecological
• Growth of • Aesthetic
I ndustry
- Chemicals
- Pulp and
paper
- Primary
meta 1 s
- Electric
power
generation
- etc.
• Population
growth
Neai — term prob-
lem In the South-
west.
Long-term prob-
lem in the South-
east.
By 2000, water
shortages could be
pervasive in much
of the Sunbelt.
New Mexico, Okla-
homa, Texas, the
Gu 1 f coasta 1 areas
of Louisiana and
Alabama, and Flor-
ida will likely
face the most ser-
ious problems.
Water shortages
cou 1 d af feet the
economic growth and
population stab 1 1-
Ity of much of the
region.
1 n some areas,
ecological damage
to aquatic ecosys-
tems cou 1 d be
Irreversible.
Riparian water
laws create many
barriers to Im-
proved water re-
source management.
Water qual ity and
water quantity
concerns are sel-
dom Integrated.
Few mechanisms for
I ntergovernmenta 1
cooperation exist.
(continued)
-------
TABLE 13-12: (Continued)
Impact or
Prob 1 em
Completion
of the
Tennessee-
Tomb t gbee
Causal
Factors
• General
econom i c
growth
(energy, chem-
icals)
• Ecosytem modl-
f I cat Ions
Type of
Prob 1 em
Created
• Economic
• Ecological
Duration
Impacts will be
long-term after
completion of
waterway (1990
and beyond).
Pervasiveness
Loca 1 1 zed prob-
lem affecting
parts of Alabama,
Mississippi, Ten-
nessee.
Magnitude/
Seriousness
Severa 1 benef I ts
result from devel-
opment, Including
Improved navigation
and secondary re-
gional development.
Water qual Ity Im-
Po 1 1 cy Prob 1 ems
Rapidly Increasing
costs combined
with increasing
questions about
the benefits of
the project have
threatened cancel-
lation.
u>
1
£>
CO
Water • Rapid expan- • Political
management si on of
demands for • Economic
water
• Increasing
water qual Ity
problems
• Limitations in
existing
Institutions
Immediate problem
througout most of
Region 6. Likely to
become an Important
need in Region 4 in
the 1980's.
Problem wiI I be
pervasive across
the Sunbelt. Areas
IIkely to feel most
Immediate need for
improved management
are New Mexico,
Oklahoma, Texas,
and states of the
South Atlantic
coast.
pacts couId be
serious, Including
reduced ass i m iIa-
tion capacity.
Stream habitat wi11
be altered.
Water is central
to the growth
capacity of each
state. Without
improved manage-
ment, growth
couId be restrIc-
ted in several
areas.
Revisions in water
management capa-
bllltles are like-
ly to be most dif-
ficult In the east-
ern part of the
Sunbelt where
water has hlstoi—
leally been abun-
dant.
Interstate coopera-
tion to deal with
ground water prob-
lems and river
basin problems may
be very difficult.
State and local gov-
ernments will have
more responsIb11i ty
and fewer resources
to deal with these
problems.
-------
water quality problems in many areas. Ground water depletion in
Florida and along the Atlantic Coast will contribute to water
availability problems in the Southeast.
Water shortages could be particularly difficult to resolve in
many parts of the Sunbelt. In part, this is because much of the
region has been traditionally water-rich. Thus, water management
systems have not been developed. The riparian system, based on
water abundance, creates many barriers to managing a scarce re-
source. In addition regulatory systems to protect ground water
systems and instream values have generally been slow to develop.
Virtually no cooperative intergovernmental mechanisms exist for
resolving emerging issues affecting multi-state river basins.
Thus, one of the most serious questions about economic and popula-
tion growth in the Sunbelt over the next two decades will be the
adequacy of water resources to meet rapidly increasing demands.
13-44
-------
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Bean, Covey. 1981a. "States Told to Expect No Aid from Feds on
Water Woes." The Daily Oklahoman, December 2.
Bean, Covey. 1981b. "Nigh Urges Water Cooperation." The Daily
Oklahoman, December 2.
Blackwelder, B., Washington representative. Environmental Policy
Center. 1979. Statement to the House Subcommittee on Water
Resources of the Committee on Public Works and Transportation,
96th Congress, 1st Session, March.
Carter, Luther J. 1976. "Dade County: The Politics of Managing
Urban Growth." Science 192 (June 4):982-85.
Claflin, T. P., Department of Biology, University of Wisconsin at
LaCrosse. 1980. Statement to the Senate Subcommittee on
Water Resources of the Committee on Environment and Public
Works, 96th Congress, 2d Session, July.
Clean Water Act of 1977, Pub. L. 95-217, 91 Stat. 1566.
Crow, Gerald. 1981. "Florida's New Water Policy." ENFO 3
(September).
EPA Journal 6 (September 1980):34.
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L.
92-500, 86 Stat. 816.
Geraghty, J., et al. 1973. Water Atlas of the United States.
Port Washington, N.Y.: Water Information Center.
Grabrysch, R. K. 1976. "Land-Surface Subsidence in the Houston-
Galveston Region, Texas." In Proceedings of the Anaheim Sym-
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Greene, Juanita. 1979. "Environmentalists Win Ruling." Miami
(Florida) Herald, October 4.
Kundell, J. E. 1978. Ground Water Resources of Georgia. Athens:
University of Georgia, Institute of Government.
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McGuinness, C. L., comp. 1964. Generalized Map Showing Annual
Runoff and Productive Aquifers in the Conterminous United
States, Hydrologic Investigations Atlas HA-194. Washington,
D.C.: U.S., Department of the Interior, Geological Survey.
Morris, L. W., Lt. Gen., Chief of Engineers. 1980. Testimony
before the Senate Subcommittee on Energy and Water
Development of the Committee on Appropriations, 96th
Congress, 2d Session, August.
Neal, B., 0. K. Jackson, and S. Lowry. 1980. "Groundwater: The
Crisis Below." Savannah Morning News and Savannah Evening
Press, Oct. 26 through Nov. 2.
Parker, Kathleen C. , Eugene P. Odum, and James L. Cooley. 1981.
Natural Ecosystems of the Sunbelt. Athens: University of
Georgia, Institute of Ecology.
Pfrommer, C., Department of Economics, University of Alabama at
Birmingham. 1980. Statement to the Senate Subcommittee on
Water Resources of the Committee on Environment and Public
Works, 96th Congress, 2d Session, July.
Prunty, M. C., and L. C. Brandhorst. 1980. "The Status of
Irrigation in Georgia." Paper presented at the Annual
Meeting of the Southeastern Division of the Association of
American Geographers, October.
Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-523, 88 Stat. 1660.
Shepherd, A. D., et al. 1980. State Water Use and Socioeconomic
Data Relating to the Second National Water Assessment, ORNL
Report TM7242. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge National Labora-
tory.
Smith, R. Jeffrey. 1981. "The Waterway That Cannot Be Stopped."
Science 213 (August 14):741-44.
Smith, Stanley K. 1980. "Projections of Florida Population by
County, 1979-2000." Population Studies Bulletin 53 (July).
Gainesville: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and
Business Research.
Texas, Department of Water Resources. 1980. Texas Water.
Austin: Texas, Department of Water Resources.
Texas, Department of Water Resources. September 23, 1981.
Personal communication.
Thomas, Harold E. 1951. The Conservation of Ground Water; A
Survey of the Present Ground Water Situation in the United
States. New York: McGraw-Hill.
13-46
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Thompson, Dewayne. 1981. "Factors Affecting the Movement of
Coal in the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway: From Demopolis to
Mobile." Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service.
U.S., Army Corps of Engineers. 1971. Environmental Statement;
Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway, Alabama and Mississippi,
Navigation. Mobile, Ala.: U.S., Army Corps of Engineers.
U.S., Department of Commerce. 1980. The High Plains Study.
Washington, D.C.: U.S., Department of Commerce.
U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
1980. Regional Economic Projections. Washington, D.C.: BEA.
U.S., General Accounting Office (GAO). To Continue or Halt the
Tenn-Tom Waterway, Report #CED-81-89. Washington, D. C.:
GAO.
U.S., Water Resources Council (WRC). 1978a. The Nation's Water
Resources 1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Volume
I: Summary. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Water Resources Council (WRC). 1978b. The Nation's Water
Resources 1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol.
II: Water Quality, Quantity, and Related Land Considerations.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
13-47
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APPENDIX 13A
METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS
OF THE SECOND NATIONAL WATER ASSESSMENT1
The Second National Water Assessment was conducted in three
phases: Phase I, Nationwide Analysis; Phase II, Specific Problem
Analysis; and Phase III, National Problem Analysis. The approach
and assumptions which directly affect the data used in this chap-
ter are summarized below.
Phase I: Nationwide Analysis
Estimates of current and projected water requirements and
problems were prepared by the U.S. Water Resources Council member
agencies. Estimates were made of water requirements for three
scenarios: 1975, 1985, and 2000. These estimates were based on
the following assumptions:
• The national population will grow at slightly less than
one percent per year and will reach zero growth early
in the next century. For the year 2000, this assumes
268 million people;
• The Gross National Product will increase at about four
percent per year, doubling by the year 2000;
• The water quality goals of the Federal Water Pollution
Control Act Amendments of 1972 (Public Law 92-500) will
be largely achieved by 1985;
• The attainment of goals for water quality and the
higher cost for water will improve water use
efficiency;
•'•For additional information on the approach to the Second
National Water Assessment, see U.S., Water Resources Council,
1978. The Nation's Water Resources 1975-2000, Second National
Water Assessment, Vol. Ill: Analytical Data. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
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• Agricultural production and marketing will reflect
recent (1971-1973) trends in per capita consumption
and export levels;
• Fish and wildlife and recreation needs will continue as
they have in the past 10 years; and
• Increased levels of floodplain regulations will reduce
dependence on structural measures for flood control.
Phase II: Specific Problem Analysis
Regional sponsors, one for each of the 21 water resources re-
gions, surveyed and analyzed state and regional viewpoints about
(1) current and future water problems, (2) conflicts that may
arise in meeting state and regional objectives, and (3) problems
and conflicts needing resolution.
State-Regional Futures were prepared by regional study
teams. Detailed discussions of the assumptions and methodologies
used in the State-Regional Futures analyses are provided in tech-
nical memos prepared by the study teams. The general framework
for each regional study was as follows:
• A problem identification survey based on regional views
on population growth, economic activity, and environmen-
tal concerns was conducted;
• Problem issues and areas were selected for further eval-
uation; and
• Information was developed to describe the severity of
problem issues within selected problem areas.
Phase III: National Problem Analysis
The Water Resources Council conducted this final phase in
three steps: (1) an evaluation of phases I and II; (2) an analy-
sis that identified and evaluated the nation's most serious water
resources problems; and (3) the preparation of a final report
entitled The Nation's Water Resources—1975-2000.
From the findings of the Nationwide Analysis and the Specific
Problem Analysis, the Council identified and evaluated the na-
tion's most serious water resources problems. Where major dif-
ferences between the Nationwide Analysis and the Specific Problem
Analysis appeared, every effort was made to reconcile the dif-
ferences. If the differences could not be satisfactorily re-
solved, the differences are cited appropriately in the assessment
report.
13-49
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Data Sources and Federal Agency Responsibilities
The lead federal agency for an assigned task assembled per-
tinent information, considered the assessment assumptions, devel-
oped methodologies to determine present and future conditions,
and made the necessary computations and analyses.
There were etremely wide variations in (1) the type of infor-
mation that was available, (2) the number and scope of assump-
tions that could or should be applied, and (3) the availability
and the applicability of accepted or possible methodologies.
Information about these procedures is available from the federal
agencies as indicated below:
« Economic and population data: Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
• Land uses, agricultural Department of Agriculture,
practices, erosion, flood Soil Conservation Service
damage, and recreation
requirements:
• Electric power generation: Department of Energy,
Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission
13-50
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CHAPTER 14
WATER QUALITY
HIGHLIGHTS
Status and Trends
1. Overall water quality in the study area is relatively
good, especially when compared to the older industrial-
ized areas of the Northeast and Great Lakes. However,
several regions and localized areas do suffer from
water pollution, and pressures on water resources will
increase as population and economic growth continues.
2. Municipal discharges seriously affect at least some
streams in almost every river basin in the study area.
With projected population increases, improved sewage
treatment facilities will be needed to achieve a decrease
in BOD and nutrient discharges. The federal program for
supporting construction of municipal sewage plants is
under review due to criticisms of its high costs and
inefficiencies.
3. Industrial waste water discharges have been identified as
seriously affecting 74 percent of the river basins in the
Southeast region and 70 percent of those in the Southcen-
tral region. Although pollution control efforts in in-
dustry have been far more successful than with municipal
wastewaters, needed improvements include the pretreatment
of industrial wastewaters to remove toxic chemicals be-
fore being discharged to publicly-owned treatment plants.
4. Nonpoint sources of pollution also seriously degrade
water quality throughout much of the Sunbelt. In the
Southeast region, the most widespread nonpoint sources
are urban runoff and agriculture, each seriously affect-
ing about 60 percent of the river basins. Silviculture
and individual sewage disposal systems also seriously
affect about one-third of the basins. In the Southcen-
tral region, agriculture affects 87 percent of the
basins, while urban runoff and mining (including oil
and gas production) affect over one-half of the basins.
14-i
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The extent of ground water quality problems and their
potential for affecting human health or limiting future
use of this resource are not well understood. Important
sources of ground water contamination in the Sunbelt
include spills of chemicals, oil and gas well drilling,
waste disposal, and septic tanks.
A recent survey in six states of the Sunbelt of wells
which supply drinking water showed significant levels of
contamination by chlorinated hydrocarbons. Trichloro-
ethylene, a suspected carcinogen, was the most frequently
detected compound and was found in 8 percent of the wells
tested.
• Geographic Areas
7. The western region of the study area, which suffers from
serious water availability problems, also is impacted by
several natural and man-made water pollution sources.
Especially important in this region are dissolved solids
from agricultural runoff, runoff from feedlots, and poor
ground water quality from both natural sources and oil
and gas production.
8. Both surface and ground waters have been adversly af-
fected in the Gulf Coast region of Texas and Louisiana
by several sources including: toxic pollution from ef-
fluents and solid wastes associated with concentrations
of industry (especially chemical production); municipal
discharges; agricultural runoff; and salt water intrusion
due to overpumping of aquifers and reduced flows of sur-
face streams.
9. Acid mine drainage has been identified as a serious prob-
lem in Kentucky and Alabama. Soil erosion and nutrients
from municipal and industrial point sources are also
serious in several locations throughout the Ohio and
Tennessee River basins.
10. Threats to ground and surface waters from a variety of
sources exist throughout the South Atlantic Gulf area
(North and South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and
Alabama). For example, the west coast of Florida is
being impacted by nutrients from municipal discharges,
effluents from extensive phosphate mining operations,
water quality degradation due to hydrologic modifica-
tions, and salt water intrusion.
14-ii
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• Key Problems and Issues
11. As water discharge standards become more stringent, the
economic costs of controls increase substantially. Thus,
it may not be possible to meet existing or planned water
quality standards in some areas with concentrated
industrial/population growth and/or low stream flows.
12. Water quality standards and monitoring networks do not
adequately address toxic pollutants in most states.
13. Although nonpoint source pollution is widespread, no
broad-based regulatory program exists and there is con-
siderable uncertainty as to the effectiveness of various
control measures (e.g., soil conservation practices and
integrated pest management).
14. Despite the high degree of dependence on ground water as
a drinking water source, there is no comprehensive ground
water quality monitoring network similar to that for sur-
face water. The economic costs of a large-scale data
collection and analysis system would be high.
15. Although states presently have the major role in ground
water protection programs, there is a wide variation
among the states in their current ability to deal with
such problems.
14-iii
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CHAPTER 14
WATER QUALITY
14.1 INTRODUCTION
Historically, rivers and streams have been used to meet a
variety of human needs, including discharge of both human and
industrial wastes. In addition, land disturbing activities, such
as agriculture, urbanization, and mining, can create adverse
impacts on water quality. Over the past 10 to 15 years a major
national effort has been directed at reducing these impacts; for
example, during 1976 alone it is estimated that industry spent
2.7 billion dollars on water pollution abatement (U.S., WRC,
1978a, Pt. IV, p. 109). These efforts are continuing to show
positive results, with many streams, lakes, and estuaries show-
ing substantial improvements. However, overall there are still
many improvements needed to restore and maintain the nation's
water resources (U.S., CEQ, 1979, p. 75).
As discussed in the previous chapter, water resources are a
key ingredient to a healthy economy. Water must be adequate in
both quantity and quality to meet needs for human consumption
and other domestic purposes, to supply industry and agriculture,
to maintain aquatic ecosystems (which may be economically impor-
tant) , and to provide recreational opportunities. Presently,
overall water quality in the study area is relatively good (see
e.g., U.S., EPA, 1978), especially when compared with the older
industrialized and heavily populated areas of the Northeast and
Great Lakes. However, a number of localized water quality prob-
lems currently exist in the southern region. As population and
economic growth continues, pressures on water resources will
increase; policies and management strategies need to ensure that
increased water pollution does not threaten human health or
become an unnecessary restriction to future growth.
Two major categories of pollution sources will be considered
—point and nonpoint. Point sources are those industrial plants
or municipal wastewater treatment facilities that discharge pol-
lutants from a pipe or other conduit. Nonpoint sources are dif-
fuse and include runoff from agricultural practices, mining, con-
struction, and silvicultural areas; stream modification (e.g.,
channelization); and natural background releases arising from
land not disturbed by man's activities (U.S., EPA, 1973, p. 1).
The distinction between point and nonpoint source pollution is
14-1
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significant because their characteristics are different and they
pose greatly different control problems (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980).
However, the categorization of point vs. nonpoint sources is not
always clear. For example, urban storm water runoff is basical-
ly a nonpoint source, but it can be considered a point source if
it is collected and discharged from a single source. When urban
runoff is combined with sewage which leads to "combined sewage
outflows" it is usually considered a point source.
This chapter will follow an organization similar to the other
chapters in Part III of this report. The following section
(14.2) discusses existing conditions and recent trends in water
quality. This begins with a brief description of the regulatory
system for controlling water pollution, followed by an overview
of water quality across the region, including a short descrip-
tion of several specific water quality case histories. These
cases were chosen to be illustrate and are not necessarily rep-
resentative of all problem types or geographical areas in the
Sunbelt. Section 14.3 addresses potential future problems and
issues, including a description of key driving forces. The chap-
ter concludes with a summary of key water quality issues for the
future.
14.2 EXISTING CONDITIONS
14.2.1 The Regulatory System
The Federal Water Pollution Control Act (FWPCA) Amendments
of 1972 and the Clean Water Act (CWA) of 1977 are the major
pieces of federal legislation protecting water quality. They
require standards, enforcement procedures, and research programs
and provide for construction and other grants. Nationwide efflu-
ent standards are established by the Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) which approves state implementation programs to
achieve water quality goals. According to the CWA, national
water quality goals are to restore and maintain the chemical,
physical, and biological integrity of the nation's waters by:
• Eliminating pollutant discharge into navigable waters
by 1985;
• Achieving water quality protection and propagation of
aquatic life and water recreation; and
• Prohibiting the discharge of toxic pollutants in toxic
amounts.
14-2
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A. Point Sources
Point sources are regulated through the National Pollutant
Discharge Elimination System (NPDES). Permits for point dis-
charges are issued by EPA or the state if it has an EPA approved
implementation program. All of the 13 states in the study area
have EPA approved permit programs.
Three categories of industrial discharges are established by
the CWA:
» Conventional Pollutants; These are biological oxy-
gen demandf BOD),suspended solids, fecal coliform,
and pH. For these pollutants the CWA requires "best
conventional pollutant control technology" (BCT) by
July 1, 1984.
0 Toxic Pollutants;1 The CWA requires "best available
technology economically achievable" (BAT) for 65
classes of toxic priority pollutants. Compliance
deadlines for BAT are set for July 1, 1984. EPA is
also to develop standards for the pretreatment of
industrial wastes for industries that release the
liquid wastes to publicly owned treatment works
rather than a waterway. The purpose is to prevent
chemical interference with sewage plant operations,
to prevent the introduction of toxic pollutants that
could pass through and be discharged from a sewage
treatment plant, and to prevent the contamination of
sewage sludge to an extent that would limit its bene-
ficial use on land or other sound disposal practice
(U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 128).
o Nonconventional Pollutants; These are defined as
all pollutants other than toxic or conventional ones,
such as chemical oxygen demand, dissolved solids, and
oil and grease. For these pollutants, dicharges must
meet BAT standards within three years of their promul-
gation or by July 1, 1984, whichever is later, but in
no case later than July 1, 1987 (U.S., EPA, 1978,
p. 26). For these nonconventional pollutants, EPA
may grant modifications of BAT if an industry shows
that its discharge will not cause any significant
adverse water quality effects (U.S., EPA, 1978,
p. 26).
has found that all primary industries regularly dis-
charge one or more toxic priority pollutants. As of 1980, EPA
had proposed BAT effluent limitations for toxic priority pollu-
tants for nine primary industries (U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 127).
14-3
-------
For municipal discharges, the FWPCA required application of
secondary treatment (or more stringent treatment to meet then
existing water quality standards) by July 1, 1977, and "best
practicable waste treatment technology" by 1983. The CWA author-
ized EPA to extend compliance deadlines on a discretionary basis
up to July 1, 1983 (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980). A major part of this
pollution control effort was an EPA operated construction grants
program to assist municipalities in financing the necessary
works. Through 1980, Congress had appropriated 31.58 billion
dollars for this program. As of the end of 1979, EPA had obli-
gated 24.4 billion dollars (U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 123). In Feburary
1980, EPA reported that 63 percent of major municipal treatment
facilities were not yet in compliance with the original July 1,
1977 deadlines (U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 131). Recently, it has been
proposed that this program be substantially restricted.
B. Nonpoint Sources
No specific authority has been given to EPA to regulate non-
point source pollution—both the 1972 and 1977 Acts left the de-
velopment and implementation of specific control regulations up
to state and local governments. However, EPA has been attempting
to address nonpoint pollution primarily through the Water Quality
Management Program created by Section 208 of the CWA. Section 208
establishes procedures under which states or regional agencies are
required to prepare water quality management plans which include
both point and nonpoint sources in surface and ground water.
These procedures require the governor of each state to designate
areas within the state that have "substantial water quality prob-
lems" and "a single representative organization including elected
officials from local governments or their designees" as the 208
planning agency. The designated planning agency is required to
operate "a continuing area-wide waste treatment management
planning process." EPA must approve the plans prepared by the
designated planning agency but the plans are not binding (Dolgin
and Guilbert, 1974, p. 767).
Area-wide plans must address nonpoint source pollution prob-
lems that are related to: agriculture and silviculture; mining,
including "new, current and abandoned surface and underground
mine runoff" (FWPCA, 1972, §208[b][2][G]); construction; and
"salt water intrusion into rivers, lakes and estuaries resulting
from reduction of fresh water flow from any cause including irri-
gation, obstruction, ground water extraction and diversion"
(FWPCA, 1972, §208[b][2][I]). Solid waste disposal problems that
might affect surface or ground water quality must also be ad-
dressed in these nonpoint source control plans.
Several other federal and state programs also affect non-
point sources. Section 208(j) of the 1977 Amendments authorizes
the Department of Agriculture to provide grants for controlling
14-4
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agricultural pollution problems in areas or states with approved
208 plans. The 1977 Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act
has provisions for controlling nonpoint source pollution from
mining. Also, the states, in cooperation with the Department of
Agriculture Soil Conservation Service, have a number of soil ero-
sion control programs. Part of the purpose of the 208 planning
process was to assure coordination among these various programs
(U.S., EPA, 1978, p. 26). However, the EPA 208 grants have re-
cently been eliminated; to what extent these programs might be
carried on by the states is unclear.
C. Other Legislation
Several other major pieces of federal legislation are also
important for protecting water quality. The Safe Drinking Water
Act of 1974 extended federal regulation of drinking water to all
community supplies. EPA is responsible both for establishing
drinking water quality standards and, as needed, for requiring
application of specific water treatment technologies. Subtitle
C of the Act, designed to prevent endangerment of underground
drinking water sources, directs EPA to establish minimum require-
ments for state regulation of discharges from deep waste injec-
tion wells into ground water. The underground injection regula-
tions allow for classification of aquifers into those which are
or are not underground drinking water sources. They offer
limited protection to those which are officially classified as
drinking water sources and none to those which are not (U.S.,
CEQ, 1980).
The Safe Drinking Water Act allows EPA to designate an aqui-
fer the sole or principal source of drinking water for an area.
After such designation by the EPA administrator, "no commitment
for Federal financial assistance...may be entered into for any
project which the Administrator determines may contaminate such
aquifers through a recharge zone so as to create a significant
hazard to public health." As of December, 1981, eight aquifers
had been designated "sole source," two of which are in the study
area—the Edwards Aquifer in central Texas and the Biscayne
Aquifer in southeast Florida (see Chapter 13).
Two other acts which influence water quality, the Resource
Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the Toxic Substances
Control Act, are discussed in Chapter 15.
14.2.2 Overview of Water Quality
This section provides an overview of existing water quality
concerns in three categories: surface water, ground water, and
drinking water. In addition to the broad overviews, several case
14-5
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examples are described to illustrate the nature of water quality
problems or instances of successful pollution control efforts.
A. Surface Water
The following overview of surface water quality first con-
siders impacts from point sources, followed by a discussion of
nonpoint sources. As will be seen, surface water pollution is
widespread across the region although the sources and types of
pollution vary from place to place.
1. Point Sources
Table 14-1, based on EPA's 1977 National Water Quality Inven-
tory Report to Congress, shows data on river basins "affected"
by point source discharges, either industrial or municipal (U.S.,
CEQ, 1979). These figures are based on field data collated by
the states in 1975 and 1976. Basins are classified as affected
if the problems identified were not considered minor or insigni-
ficant, but this does not necessarily mean that water quality
standards were violated. These data do have some limitations.
They generally overstate the extent of some pollution since only
a part of a basin may be affected. In contrast, other water
problems may exist that are not reflected in the data; for exam-
ple, in the case of toxic pollutants, monitoring data may not be
adequate to identify a problem. However, these data are consid-
ered to present a good overview of the extent of pollution from
these sources (U.S., CEQ, 1979).
Based on these data, surface water pollution from point
sources is widespread across the U.S., including the study area.
Only a few river basins in the U.S. are not affected by point
source pollution in at least some part of the basin. In the
Southeast, 74 percent of the basins are affected by industrial
discharges, while 91 percent are affected by municipal effluents.
In the Southcentral region, industrial and municipal effluents
affect 70 and 100 percent of the basins, respectively. The most
widespread pollution problems in both regions are bacteria, oxy-
gen depletion, and nutrients. Heavy metal pollution affects 36
and 43 percent of the basins in the Southeast and Southcentral
regions, respectively.
Figure 14-1 provides a slightly different perspective on
surface water quality problems caused by point source discharges.
The shaded areas indicate "significant" water quality problems
as identified by federal and state/regional study teams as part
of the Second National Water Assessment (U.S., WRC, 1978a,
Pt. II, p. 20). Notice that the unshaded areas may not be prob-
lem free, but many problems were not considered major. The
majority of significant problems are nutrients from municipal
14-6
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TABLE 14-1:
WATER POLLUTION IMPACTS FROM POINT SOURCES, 1977
(percent of basins affected)3
Pollutant
Geographical Region
Southeast
Southcentral
U.S.
Total
Type of Point Source
Industrial
Municipal
Pollution Type
74
91
70
100
72
89
Thermal
Bacteria
Oxygen depletion
Nutrients
Suspended solids
Dissolved solids
pH
Oil and grease
Heavy metals
Nonmetal toxics
11
77
89
70
26
9
17
6
36
28
3
73
87
83
30
30
10
13
43
7
15
78
79
69
35
17
14
16
38
28
Source: U.S., EPA, 1978, p. 11.
aBasins where some (or all) stream segments have a problem that
is not minor or insignificant, according to state officials.
The total number of basins is: Southeast Region 47; South-
central Region 30; U.S., 246.
that the regional drainage basin groupings used here do
not conform precisely to the federal regions. The Southeast
Region includes the Southeast and Tennessee River basins, while
the Southcentral Region includes the lower Mississippi River
and western Gulf of Mexico basins.
14-7
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I
00
Area In which significant surface-water
pollution from point sources Is occurring
BOUNDARIES
Water resources region
Subreglon
Collform bacteria from municipal waste or feedlot-dralnage
PCB, PBB, PVC, and related Industrial chemicals
Heavy metals (e.g.,mercury,zlnc,copper,cadmlum,lead)
Nutrients from municipal and Industrial discharges
Heat from manufacturing and power generation
Figure 14-1: Surface Water Pollution Problems from Point Sources
(municipal and industrial waste)
Source: U.S., WRC, 1978a, Pt. II, p. 20.
-------
and industrial discharges and coliform bacteria from municipal
waste or feedlot drainage. Five areas are indicated as having
significant problems due to toxic materials such as heavy metals
and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)—four of which are in
Louisiana.
2. Nonpoint Sources
Surface waters also are significantly affected by nonpoint
sources of pollution which can be either natural or man-made.
Nonpoint sources of water pollution are not as well understood
or documented, and they are generally more difficult to control
than point sources.
Based on the 1977 EPA National Water Quality Inventory Report
to Congress, states reported that 87 percent of the basins across
the country are affected by nonpoint source pollution (U.S., EPA,
1978, p. 15). Table 14-2 shows data for the study area and
nationally on the percent of basins affected, both by the type of
nonpoint source and by the type of pollutant. In the Southeast
region, the most widespread nonpoint sources are urban runoff
(57 percent) and agriculture (62 percent), with silviculture and
individual disposal systems also affecting roughly one-third of
the basins. The most widespread pollution problems in the South-
east are bacteria, oxygen depletion, and high levels of nutri-
ents. In the Southcentral region, agriculture affects 87 percent
of the basins, while urban runoff and mining (including oil and
gas production) affect over one-half of the basins. In contrast
to the Southeast, in the Southcentral region dissolved solids are
the most widespread pollution problem, and toxics are judged to
affect 47 percent of the basins compared to only 11 percent in
the Southeast.
Figure 14-2 shows "significant" nonpoint source water quality
problems.-'- In the study area, agriculture is a cause of signifi-
cant problems in Mississippi, Kentucky, Louisiana, western Texas,
and New Mexico. Excessive salinity is identified as a major
water quality problem in Louisiana, western Texas and New Mexico.
Water used for irrigation leaches salts from the soil, causing
the salinity concentrations to increase in the return flows.
Along with sediments washed off the land surface (discussed
further below), are herbicides, insecticides, and undesirable
levels of fertilizers and other nutrients, all of which enter the
streams. The National Residuals Discharge Inventory indicates that
nationally about 33 percent of the oxygen-demanding loads, 66
percent of the phosphorus, and 75 percent of the nitrogen
1-Note that Figure 14-2 does not include pollution problems of
bacteria or oxygen depletion, or sedimentation due to soil erosion.
14-9
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TABLE 14-2:
NONPOINT POLLUTION3
(percent of basins affected)
Pollutant
Type of Nonpoint Source
Urban runoff
Construction
Hydrologic modification
Silviculture
Mining
Agriculture
Solid Waste disposal
Individual disposal
Geographical Region
Southeast Southcentral
57
2
21
30
15
62
9
40
50
0
23
13
53
87
13
40
U.S.
Total
52
9
15
15
30
68
14
43
Type of Pollution Problem
Bacteria
Oxygen depletion
Nutrients
Suspended solids
Dissolved solids
pH
Oil and grease
Toxics
Pesticides
66
74
57
34
4
9
4
11
23
53
43
63
37
70
23
3
47
40
61
51
56
54
30
18
9
32
22
Source: U.S., EPA, 1978, pp. 15-16.
aBasins where some (or all) stream segments have a problem that
is not minor or insignificant, according to state officials.
The total number of basins is: Southeast Region 47; South-
central Region 30; U.S., 246.
bNote that the regional drainage basin groupings used here do
not conform precisely to the federal regions. The Southeast
Region includes the Southeast and Tennessee River basins, while
the Southcentral Region includes the lower Mississippi River
and western Gulf of Mexico basins.
14-10
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Area In which significant surface-water
pollution from non-point sources Is occurring
BOUNDARIES
Water resources region
Subreglon
Herblclde8,pe8tlcides,and other agricultural chemicals
Irrigation return flows with high concentrations of dissolved solids
Sea-water Intrusion
Mine drainage
Figure 14-2: Surface Water Pollution Problems From Nonpoint Sources
(dispersed)
Source: U.S., WRC, 1978a, Pt. Ill, p. 21.
-------
discharge into the streams in 1973 came from dispersed agricul-
tural sources (U.S., WRC, 1978a, Pt. II, p. 23).
Kentucky and Alabama have identified acid mine drainage as
a major problem. Where mining is or was prevalent, acid mine
drainage pollutes both surface water and ground water supplies.
Abandoned mines compound the problem since responsible parties
are not available to deal with the problem.
Intrusion of saline water into fresh surface water is a ma-
jor problem in several Sunbelt coastal areas. Impoundments and
increased consumption of fresh surface water reduce the flows of
fresh water to coastal estuaries. As the streamflow decreases,
the saline water intrudes farther upstream. Not only can this
upset sensitive and productive coastal ecosystems but also water
users near the coast are faced with either using the degraded
water or finding alternative and more costly sources. Intrusion
of highly saline sea water into tidal estuaries has been identi-
fied as a problem at locations in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas
(Figure 14-2).
Erosion of soils and the consequent sedimentation of streams,
rivers, and lakes is a major water quality problem throughout the
nation, including the study area (see Chapter 9). Figure 14-3
shows areas of significant erosion or sedimentation; problem
areas include much of New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana, the Mis-
sissippi River Valley, parts of Alabama and Georgia, and much of
North and South Carolina. In addition to serving as a carrier
of pollutants such as nutrients and pesticides, sedimentation
causes economic and ecological damage by ruining fish spawning
areas, clogging river channels, and filling lakes and reservoirs,
thereby reducing storage capacity and shortening the life of the
reservoir.
Other significant causes of water quality degradation from
nonpoint sources are spills of oil, oil products, and other haz-
ardous materials. Numerous hazardous material spills have been
reported in both regions in recent years. For example, Figure
14-4 displays data for Region 4 on the number of transportation-
and nontransportation-related oil spills reaching various water-
ways. From January 1976 through September 1977, transportation-
related oil spills involved over 500 incidents and the release
of more than 1.5 million gallons of oil. Between January 1975
and September 1977 there were over 400 nontransportation-related
spill incidents involving about 0.5 million gallons (U.S., EPA,
Reg. IV, 1978, pp. 18-19).
3. Specific Examples of Pollution
In addition to these overviews of water quality, another
source of information is specific cases of either water quality
14-12
-------
Area In which erosion or sedimentation
Is a significant problem
BOUNDARIES
Water resources region
Subregion
Cropland or rangeland erosion or sedimentation
A Urbanization, mining, or Industrial and highway construction
• Natural erosion of stream channels
O Shoreline, streambank, or gully erosion
it Sedimentation of farm ponds, lakes, water supply,
and flood-control channels
Figure 14-3: Erosion and Sedimentation
Source: U.S., WRC, 1978a, Pt. II, p. 48.
-------
Oil Spills Reaching Waterways
(includes crude oil.fuel and heating oil,gasoline,and other petroleum products)
600 -
January 1975 - July 1977
400 -
200 -
a
a
o
o
i
200 -
400 J
Non-transportation
related spills
Canals and
salt water
Transportation
related spills
January 1976 - September 1977
Figure 14-4: Oil Spill Data
Source: U.S., EPA, 1978, pg. 18,
14-14
-------
problems or improved water quality conditions. The following
pages discuss three specific cases of water quality concerns in
the Sunbelt. These cases were chosen to be illustrative and are
not necessarily representative of all problem types or geographic
areas in the Sunbelt.
(a) Mercury Contamination in the North Fork Holston River
(TVA, 1980, p. 12)
Mercury contamination of fish in the North Fork Holston River
(running from southwest Virginia into northeast Tennessee) has
been recognized as a chronic problem since 1970, when it was
first discovered that the level of mercury in fish caught below
Saltville, Virginia, exceeded the FDA limit. Subsequently, the
river was closed to fishing, except for catch-and-release. The
source of the mercury was a chloralkali plant which closed in
1972. Mercury from the old plant site and waste muck ponds con-
tinued to seep into the river, accumulating in the sediments and
in aquatic plants and animals. Results of studies by the
Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) indicate that, even if the mer-
cury seepage into the river were eliminated, natural processes
within the river would continue to flush the contaminated sedi-
ments already deposited on the river bottom downstream. Inde-
pendent investigations by TVA and Oak Ridge National Laboratory
show that the mercury from the North Fork Holston River is being
deposited and buried in sediments in Cherokee Reservoir, about
130 river miles downstream.
A task force chaired by the Virginia State Water Control
Board and including representatives from EPA, the State of Ten-
nessee, and TVA was formed in 1978 to develop solutions to these
problems. Also, as directed by the State of Virginia, the com-
pany responsible prepared a three-phase comprehensive plan for
managing the source of the pollution. While some corrective ac-
tions have been taken, as of 1980 the major mercury discharge had
not been controlled, nor had the mercury levels in fish in the
North Folk Holston River been significantly reduced.
(b) Water Pollution from the Dallas-Fort Worth Area (U.S.,
WRC, 1978b, pp. 42-43; see also Texas, Dept. of Water
Resources, 1981, p. 13).
The Trinity River in the vicinity of the Dallas-Fort Worth
metropolitan area suffers from both chemical and bacteriological
pollution. Because of low streamflows, partially caused by up-
stream impoundments and the diversion of streamflows through
municipal water systems, municipal effluents from both Dallas
and Fort Worth often comprise the bulk of streamflow in the
Trinity downstream of the metropolitan area. Although the river
tends to purify itself as it flows downstream, some water quality
14-15
-------
problems are experienced as far downstream as Lake Livingston, a
major water supply source for Houston.
The primary effects of effluent domination in the Trinity
River are suppressed oxygen levels and high concentrations of
BOD, ammonia, volatile suspended solids, phosphate, and fecal
coliforrns. At some points, sludges that contain high concentra-
tions of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus accumulate on the river
bottom. When the river rises rapidly, these sludges are sus-
pended in the water and add heavy loads of pollutants, often re-
sulting in extensive fish kills. Urban runoff also contributes
significantly to the inflow of pollutants. Because of these wa-
ter quality problems, much of the main stem of the Trinity River
as well as portions of the West Fork and East Fork normally are
unsuitable for recreation, domestic water supply, and industrial
use without pretreatment. Game fish are generally unable to live
in the Trinity River and tributaries below the metropolitan area
because of the low dissolved oxygen levels, which occasionally
reach zero.
All of the major wastewater treatment plant owners in the
upper Trinity River Basin currently are upgrading their treat-
ment facilities. This is expected to result in a significant
improvement in the quality of the Trinity River.
(c) Pollution Control in the Neches Tidal Area
(U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 109)
In 1973, the Texas Water Quality Board ranked the Neches
Tidal Area (along the Gulf Goast of east Texas) as the second
most polluted waterway in the state in terms of the amount of
effort necessary to restore water quality. The Board also de-
termined that two main industrial concentrations—chemical plants
on Star Lake Canal and a complex of oil refineries, chemical
plants, and a fertilizer manufacturer on Mobil Canal--could best
meet water quality standards by tying into two central waste
treatment plants being planned. Construction began in 1974, and
both plants were on line in 1976. Between 1974 and 1976, EPA
issued permits to 16 major industrial and 7 major municipal dis-
charging facilities on or near the Neches. Between 1974 and
1978, EPA also issued permits to 51 minor industrial and 14 minor
municipal dischargers. In 1976, the first tarpon in 30 years was
caught in Sabine Lake on the Neches. Other aquatic life has been
reappearing in the tidal areas of the Neches as well; shrimp are
plentiful and commercial crabbers are working the river for prof-
it.
14-16
-------
B. Ground Water
1. Overview
Ground water supplies approximately 25 percent of the fresh
water used in the U.S. About half of the U.S. population and
about 95 percent of the rural population are dependent on ground
water for drinking and other domestic purposes (U.S., CEQ, 1979,
p. 105; and U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 83). In 1970, in a seven-state
southeastern region (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi,
North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia) ground water sup-
plied 44 percent of municipal, 89 percent of rural, 34 percent of
industrial, and 56 percent of irrigation uses. In Florida, 91
percent of the population depended on ground water for drinking
water supplies.
Ground water resources are threatened by overpumping (see
Chapter 13) and by a variety of activities which create pollu-
tion. In many instances ground waters are hydrologically con-
nected to surface waters; thus, surface water pollution may also
impact ground waters. Other activities which can impact ground
waters directly include disposal wells, industrial landfills and
lagoons, municipal landfills, septic tanks or other on-site sew-
age disposal methods, mining, and petroleum production.
Table 14-3 provides a brief characterization of ground water
quality for the water resource regions which are in the Sunbelt.1
However, the extent of ground water quality problems and their
potential for limiting future use of this resource are not well
understood. No comprehensive national data exist on the level
of ground water contaminants, the number of persons exposed, or
the possible health effects. Most existing information comes
from intensive local studies and anecdotal reports (U.S., CEQ,
1980, p. 91). Even in these case studies, the full range of
water quality problems is unknown because most have focused on
only a few of the several hundred compounds that might be in-
volved. In some areas, re-analysis of samples revealed high con-
centrations of toxic substances not considered during the first
analysis (U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 92).
Figure 14-5 shows "significant" ground water pollution prob-
lems identified by state and regional study teams as part of the
Second National Water Assessment (U.S., WRC, 1978a, Pt. II,
p. 30). The western portion of the Sunbelt has widespread ground
water quality problems, largely from natural sources. Four areas
in Texas and Oklahoma are characterized as having saltwater con-
tamination caused by well drilling. Across the region, four
areas are identified as having ground water pollution caused by
toxic industrial wastes, while two sites have been impacted by
1-See Section 13.2 for a map of these regions.
14-17
-------
TABLE 14-3: SUMMARY OF GROUND WATER QUALITY IN REGIONS 4 AND 6
Re gion
Ground Water Quality
South Ground water of good quality is generally available. Treat-
Atlantic- ment for excessive iron, corrosiveness, and hardness is common.
Gulf Salt water intrusion has occurred in some coastal areas. Local
contamination has occurred through drainage wells and canals
and through disposal of waste organic chemicals.
Ohio Fresh ground water is usually found at depths of less than 500
feet. The deeper water in older formations generally is of
poor quality and locally has migrated into heavily pumped aqui-
fers. Industrial and municipal waste disposal has polluted
the supply in numerous local areas.
Tennessee Contamination of ground water occurs locally due to sink holes,
septic tank and municipal waste disposal, and the shallow depth
at which naturally mineralized water is found.
Lower Multiple fresh water aquifers of sand and gravel underlie
Mississippi about 90 percent of the region. Pollution from oil field and
other industrial wastes occurs in the southern part of the
region, and salt water encroachment has developed along parts
of the Gulf Coast.
Arkansas- Pollution has occurred locally from waste disposal, notably
Red- from mining and sewage ponds in the carbonate rocks of the
White Ozarks and Missouri. Water quality has been degraded from
reuse of irrigation water along the Arkansas River. Deeper
ground water is moderately to highly mineralized.
Texas-Gulf Salt water intrusion has caused problems in the Texas City-
Galveston-Orange area. Liquid waste disposal is being accom-
plished by deep injection to saline aquifers, and other wastes
are being contained in landfills.
Rio Grande In areas where the valley fill aquifers receive saline water
from older rocks and the water evaporates, the ground water
quality is poor—often a brine. Locally, carbonate rocks and
sandstone in the central and southeastern parts of the region
contain highly saline waters.
Source: Compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Center, Reston,
Virginia {U.S., CEQ, 1979, pp. 107-9).
14-18
-------
Significant ground-water pollution Is occurring
Salt-water Intrusion or ground water Is naturally
salty
BOUNDARIES
Water resources region
Subreglon
High level of minerals or other dissolved solids in ground water
Municipal and industrial wastes Including wastes from oil and gas fields
Toxic Industrial wastes
Landfill leachate
Irrigation return waters
Wastes from well drllling.harbor dredglng.and
excavation for drainage systems
Figure 14-5: Ground Water Pollution Problems
Source: U.S., WRC, 1978a, Pt. II, p. 20.
-------
landfill leachate. Several coastal areas are experiencing salt-
water intrusion of ground waters due to overpumping of fresh
water aquifers.
A 1977 report sponsored by EPA surveyed ground water quality
in the southeastern U.S. covering seven states—Alabama, Florida,
Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Vir-
ginia (six of which are in our study area). Conclusions from
this report include (Geraghty and Miller, 1977):
• Ground water can be developed throughout the region.
The natural quality of ground water is good to excel-
lent, except for the occurrence of saline water in
some coastal aquifers. The most common natural water
quality problems in fresh water aquifers are high hard-
ness, high iron content, excessive fluoride concentra-
tions, corrosiveness, and the presence of radionuclides.
• Surface impoundments, which are used for treating,
handling, and storing liquid wastes and sludges, are
leaking many millions of liters per year of potentially
hazardous substances to ground water. The number of
lagoons, pits, and basins is expected to increase
sharply as industries change from direct surface water
discharge to land treatment of wastes. In addition,
industrial and municipal landfills covering large
tracts of land are a source of ground water contamina-
tion throughout the region.
• The utilization of deep injection wells for underground
storage of liquid industrial and municipal wastes is
expected to increase considerably. However, drainage
wells pose a more immediate threat to ground water
quality, particularly in Florida where more than 6,500
such wells are known to exist and receive waters rang-
ing from normal surplus waters to considerably polluted
urban storm runoff and sewage waters, as well as a wide
variety of other agricultural and industrial fluid
wastes.
• Leaks and spills of hazardous and nonhazardous fluids
on and below the land surface have occurred throughout
the region. The most commonly spilled or leaked fluids
are petroleum products that are in transferral, in
transport, or in storage. As reported by well drillers,
petroleum products in ground water supplies are the
most common reason for well replacement.
• Ground water contamination related to agricultural
activities occurs primarily from the use of excessive
amounts of fertilizers on permeable soils or from the
mixing of pesticides near wells. However, the heavy
14-20
-------
use of fertilizers and pesticides by home owners and
pest control companies in urbanized areas probably has
more impact on ground water quality than traditional
agricultural activities.
• A significant source of ground water contamination is
the discharge of partially treated sewage from septic
tank systems. Approximately 13 million people in the
region are served by on-site disposal, 76 percent of
which are septic tanks or cesspools. As reported by
well drillers in the region, bacterial contamination
by septic tanks is the second most common reason for
well replacement.
• The primary contaminant related to petroleum develop-
ment activities has been the disposal of brines in
seepage pits and disposal wells. Unplugged oil test
wells have contaminated fresh water aquifers. An
awareness of these problems probably will result in
minimal future contamination despite accelerated ex-
ploration and development.
• The case histories reported are only a very small per-
centage of the instances of ground water contamination
from all sources that exist in the region.
2. Case Examples
(a) Septic Tank Pollution (Geraghty and Miller, 1977,
p. 246).
Pollution of a large spring in Gordon County, Georgia, was
discovered when the City of Calhoun tried to use the spring to
supplement its water supply. Total coliform density of three
water samples taken over a 30-day period in 1971 ranged from 240
to 2,300 per 100 milliliter (ml). The fecal coliform density
ranged from 15 to 430 per 100 ml. The source of the bacteria
was a septic tank nearly half a mile away. The construction
practice of removing too much soil when installing the septic
tank above fractured bedrock was the presumed cause of the rapid
movement of the septic tank effluent.
(b) Waste Disposal (U.S., EPA, Off. of Solid Waste, 1980,
p. J-40).
The disposal of industrial wastes in an unlined sand pit in
Crosby, Texas, resulted in the contamination of ground water,
surface water, and the atmosphere. Disposal operations at the
site began in the mid-1960's and in 1967 a waste disposal com-
pany purchased the pit from its previous owner. Various types
14-21
-------
of industrial wastes from the Houston area were disposed of in
the pit. Leachate from the pit polluted the ground water causing
contamination of 26 private wells in the area. Contamination
included abnormally high concentrations of zinc, lead, manganese,
iron, and cadmium. The San Jacinto River was also polluted due
to the structural inadequacy of a sand dike.
(c) Hobbs, New Mexico Wastewater (U.S., EPA, Off. of
Planning and Mgmt., 1980)
The wastewater treatment plant in Hobbs, New Mexico, was add-
ing unsafe levels of nitrates to ground water in the Ogallala
formation, which serves as the city's water supply. Since there
are no waterways in the area to receive discharges, the plant
used a trickling filter process followed by discharge into per-
colation ponds. As the treated effluent percolated into the
ground it carried nitrates to the ground water. The New Mexico
Environmental Improvement Agency was concerned about the high
nitrate levels because they are a serious health threat, espe-
cially to infants. In response to the problem, the city decided
to improve the wastewater treatment process it was using and sell
part of the effluent. Oil producers buy the effluent and inject
it into petroleum formations as part of their secondary oil re-
covery operations. The remaining effluent is pumped to a second
facility for land application and denitrification. With EPA and
state grants, Hobbs completed the land application facility in
1976. One quarter of the city's effluent is now sold for use in
oil recovery, and the city soon expects to sign a contract with
a second oil company that would nearly double the amount sold.
Since the oil companies would be using ground water for their
secondary recovery operations if the effluent were not avail-
able, Hobbs is helping to conserve water through the sale of
its treated wastewater.
C. Drinking Water
1. Overview
The previous chapter discussed the provision of adequate do-
mestic water supplies for an expanding population; an equally
important consideration is the provision of high quality .drinking
water to ensure the health of current and future residents of the
area. National concern over the quality of drinking water has
heightened over the last 7 to 8 years and the public has become
increasingly aware of the presence of toxic pollutants in drinking
water. For example, the discovery of 66 organic chemicals in the
New Orleans water supply in the early 1970's gave impetus to the
passage of the 1974 Safe Drinking Water Act. Inorganic and
microbiological water pollutants have been treated for some time.
Improved analytical techniques have recently been used to
14-22
-------
identify organic compounds and trace metals not previously
detected in drinking water supplies; these compounds are not
normally removed by standard drinking water treatment methods.
Several recently discovered pollutants are associated with
cancer and other serious health problems. Sources of these
pollutants include industrial and agricultural activities as
well as the home use and disposal of chemicals (U.S., EPA, ORD,
1980, p. 441).
The contaminants of greatest health significance include:
(1) Heavy metals such as mercury, cadmium, and lead;
(2) Organics, including pesticides, PCBs, and trihalo-
methane precursors;
(3) Microorganisms, especially viruses; and
(4) Nutrients, which are exemplified by nitrates.
The greatest concern is probably their ability to cause chronic
and/or acute physiological damage even in trace concentrations.
Such undesirable constituents are noted for their persistence in
the environment, especially in ground water, and for their abil-
ity to increase in concentration with subsequent use of the wa-
ter, particularly surface waters. Current water quality stan-
dards (see Table 14-4) do not include limits on some of these
contaminants and current surveillance and treatment procedures
do not adequately address these pollutants.
Concern is increasing over chlorinated hydrocarbons, includ-
ing trichloroethylene (TCE)—a widely used solvent and degreaser
which has produced cancer in mice. Table 14-5 shows data for
six states on the percentage of wells tested with detectable lev-
els of nine chlorinated hydrocarbons (U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 94). 1
TCE was the most frequently detected compound—across the five
states where it was measured it was found in 8 percent of the
wells. Although not shown in the table, across the full 39
cities covered in the study some compounds were detected at very
high levels (e.g., TCE at 35,000 ppb). Also, tetrachloroethylene
was found more frequently and at higher levels in finished water
than raw water; the source of, or the mechanism which produces,
this chemical is not known (U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 92).
It is very difficult to deal with trace levels of toxic sub-
stances in drinking water. This is illustrated by the contro-
versy surrounding EPA's proposed regulation as part of the Safe
full study covered 39 cities in 18 states and measured
both raw ground water and finished water.
14-23
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TABLE 14-4: NATIONAL INTERIM PRIMARY DRINKING WATER STANDARDS
Maximum Concentration
Constituent (in mg/1 unless specified)
Inorganic chemicals 0.05
Arsenic 0.05
Barium 1.00
Cadmium 0.010
Chromium 0.05
Lead 0.05
Mercury 0.002
Nitrate (as N) 10.00
Selenium 0.01
Silver 0.05
Fluoride 1.4 to 2.4
Organic chemicals turbidity 1 tu up to 5 tu
Coliform bacteria 1/100 ml (mean)
Endrin 0.002
Lindane 0.004
Methoxychlor 0.1
Toxaphene 0.005
2,4D 0.1
2,4,5 TP Silvex 0.01
Radionuclides
Radium 226 and 228 (combined) 5 pCi/1
Gross alpha particle activity 15 pCi/1
Gross beta particle activity 4 mrem/year
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1979, p. 156.
mg/1 = micrograms per liter
ru = turbity units
pCi/1 = picocuries per liter
mrem = millirem
14-24
-------
TABLE 14-5: ORGANIC COMPOUNDS FOUND IN GROUND WATER
Percentage of Wells with Chemical Present
|_i
i
to
Ul
Chemical
Tr i ch lor oe thy lene
Carbon tetrachloride
Tetrachloroethylene
1,1, 1-Trichloroethane
1, 2-Dichloroethane
1, 1-Dichloroe thane
Dichloroethylenes
Methylene chloride
Vinyl chloride
Alabama
(80)a
10
0
4
10
3
8
10
0
1
Florida
(329)a
NM
50
20
15
15
36
38
1
16
Kentucky
(22)a
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
NM
0
North
Carolina
(44)a
18
0
5
2
7
14
45
18
34
South
Carolina
0
0
0
0
25
0
50
0
0
Tennessee
(50)a
14
8
2
26
8
26
26
8
6
NM = No measurements taken.
Source: U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 94.
aNumber of wells tested.
-------
Drinking Water Act that would have required granular activated
carbon (GAG) filters to protect against synthetic organic con-
taminants. The cost of installing GAG treatment in the 61 to 78
systems that would have come under the proposed regulation is
estimated at between 10 and 20 dollars per month per household,
with capital costs nationally estimated at between 615 million and
5 billion dollars (U.S., CEQ, 1979, p. 160).
Figure 14-6 shows areas and sources of drinking water prob-
lems as identified by federal and state/regional study teams as
part of the Second National Water Assessment (U.S., WRC, 1978c,
p. 67). Much of the western portion of the region is identified
as having drinking water quality problems associated with salin-
ity. Much of this problem is due to natural causes (see Section
14.2.2.B), but well drilling and irrigated agriculture have also
contributed to the problem. Other problems are biological pollu-
tion in five areas, heavy metals in four areas, and chlorinated
hydrocarbons in one area. The drinking water supplies in the
Baton Rouge/New Orleans area, an area ol* heavy chemical and pet-
rochemcial development, are impacted by several sources.
2. Case Examples
(a) Hardeman County, Tennessee (U.S., CEQ, 1979, p. 179).
In Hardeman County, Tennessee, 40 families near a rural land-
fill drank from wells polluted with such pesticides as en-
drin, dieldrin, aldrin, and heptachlor. The Velsicol Chemi-
cal Company had used a neighboring 300-acre site from 1964
to 1972 for shallow burial of 300,000 55 gallon drums of
pesticide production residues. Residents have complained of
a wide variety of ailments including liver and urinary tract
problems, dizziness, nausea, and rashes. They filed a 2.5
billion dollar suit against Velsicol and in the meanwhile,
had to hook into the water system of nearby Toone, Tennessee,
at a cost of 200,000 dollars.
(b) Mississippi River Pollution (U.S., WRC, 1978a, Pt. 5,
p. 38).
Between St. Francisville and Venice, Louisiana, some 60
industries discharge highly concentrated wastes into the
Mississippi River. As a result, fish caught in the river
below Baton Rouge are not marketable because of the off-
flavor of their flesh. This reach, however, serves as a raw
water supply for 40 utilities that furnish domestic water to
a population of 1.5 million. Treated water supplies at two
locations contain trace amounts of six organic chemicals
capable of inducing abnormal tissue changes in animals.
Treated domestic water supplies also contain three organic
chemicals described as carcinogenic.
14-26
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I
to
Area In which existing or potential pollution of
domestic water supply was reported
BOUNDARIES
Water resources region
Subreglon
A. Chlorinated hydrocarbons from treatment
processed and energy development
O Heavy metals (e.g.,mercury,zlnc>copper,cadmlum,lead)
if Conform and other bacteria
• Saline water
Figure 14-6:
Drinking Water Quality Problems
(as identified by federal and state-regional
study teams)
Source: U.S., WRC, 1978c, p. 67.
-------
14.3 FUTURE TRENDS AND ISSUES
14.3.1 Key Driving Forces
As the Sunbelt continues to grow, the quality of the region's
water resources will change. Whether the changes will be improve-
ments or degradations depends on factors such as the degree and
type of industrial growth, patterns of population growth, land
use changes, the success of pollution control programs, and water
use levels. Key driving forces with respect to water quality
are:
• Industrial growth and change;
• Population growth; and
• Agricultural and silvicultural development.
Table 14-6 shows projections for those key driving forces and
indicates pollutants of primary concern for each category.
As indicated in Table 14-6, population growth is projected
to increase 31 percent in the region by 2010 (see Chapter 3).
This will increase the potential for water quality degradation
from domestic wastewater--both from centralized municipal sewage
treatment plants and from individual systems (e.g., septic
tanks). In addition, activities associated with population
growth, such as urban development and highway construction, can
increase nonpoint source runoff problems.
The industries listed in Table 14-6 are important because of a
large projected growth (ranging from 41 to 352 percent) and because
they have significant wastewater treatment requirements. However,
in many cases only certain subclasses of these industries are a
potential water quality concern; thus, growth in a broad category
does not necessarily imply a proportional growth in water pollution
potential. For example, the category of "Paper and Allied Prod-
ucts" includes many economic activities, but the only one of major
water quality concern is pulp and paper production. Agriculture
and silviculture production are important driving forces for water
quality because the large land areas involved mean they can be
significant nonpoint sources of pollution. In addition to the
total land areas involved, crop patterns, management practices,
and pesticide use are all important factors affecting impacts on
water quality (see Chapter 9 for a discussion of trends in agri-
culture and silviculture).
14-28
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TABLE 14-6: SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL WATER POLLUTION SOURCES
I
to
Driving Forces
Population9
Industry (SIC Code)
Textile Mills (22)
Food Processing (20)
Paper and Al 1 led
Products (26)e
Chemicals and Allied
Products (28)
Petroleum Refining (29)
Rubber, and Misc.
Plastics (30)
Leather and Products (31)
Primary Metals (33)
Fabricated Metals (34)
Transportation
Equipment (37)
Machinery (35 and 36)
Agriculture (01 and 02)
Lumber Products (24)f
Earnings In Regions
4 and 6
(millions of 1972 dol lars)
1978
63.9 (1980)
4,485
3,944
2,249
4,368
1,319
1,661
326
2,471
3,276
3,693
8,200
6,460
2,220
2010
83.9
9,241
8,953
6,535
15,902
3,589
7,504
459
9,331
13,939
12,184
39,500
10,130
5,750
% change
+31
+106
+127
+191
+264
+172
+352
+41
+278
+325
+230
+382
+ 57
+159
BOD
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Co 1 1 forms
and High/
Other Nutrl- Heavyc Low Pest-
Solids" Bacteria ents Metals pH Organlcs" Icldes
XXX
X
X X
X
X X
X
X
X
X X
X X
X X
X X
XXX
X X
X X
X
X X
X X
X
X X
X X
X
X X
X X
X
X
X
Sources: Nemerow, 1978; BEA data from chapters 4 and 9.
Population Is shown In millions of persons.
''Includes suspended and dissolved solids and Increased salinity.
cIncludes mercury, zinc, copper, cadmium, and lead, etc.
Includes hydrocarbons and toxic organic chemicals.
Especially important In this category Is pulp and paper production.
fExcludes pulp and paper earnings.
-------
14.3.2 Municipal and Industrial Point Sources
Point source pollution is associated with municipal sewage
treatment facilities and heavy industries such as steel, chemi-
cals, pulp and paper, and food processing. As the Sunbelt con-
tinues to industrialize and to grow in population, the potential
for pollution from point sources will also increase. However,
the actual level of pollution and its effects will depend on the
degree of wastewater treatment applied, the particular industrial
processes involved, and the siting of the discharge points.
Most of the major pollution control efforts under the impetus
of the CWA have focused on point sources—initially on "conven-
tional" pollutants (BOD, suspended solids, etc.) and more recent-
ly on toxic substances. The basic regulatory structure for re-
quiring stringent controls is in place under the NPDES system.
However, there are still many difficult technical and economic
problems associated with implementing these pollution control
programs; for example, of the 5,623 municipal sewage treatment
projects begun since 1972, only 1,552 were in operation as of
December 1979 (U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 100). The Council on Envi-
ronmental Quality's analysis of national water quality trends
between 1975 and 1979 for six water quality indicators showed
little or no change.1 That is, while many heavily polluted
basins have substantially improved (e.g., as in the case of the
Neches Tidal Basin described earlier) and others have continued
to deteriorate, a high percentage of basins showed no significant
change. This underscores the fact that it will be several more
years before the full effect of water pollution regulatory ef-
forts is evident (U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 100).
Long-term water pollution trends from point sources in the
Sunbelt will depend on a complex set of factors. Population and
industrial growth will lead to greater amounts of domestic sewage
and industrial wastewater which will require treatment and dis-
posal. Mitigating these threats, implementation of point source
control technologies will reduce the quantities of pollution dis-
charged per unit of population and per unit of industrial produc-
tion. The effectiveness of controls will vary from pollutant to
pollutant and from industry to industry. Also, shifting water
use patterns and alteration of hydrology (discussed in Chapter
13) can affect the quantities of water in receiving streams, thus
affecting pollution concentration levels. It is uncertain how
these factors will interact along with nonpoint sources of pollu-
tion to affect overall water quality in the Sunbelt. An impor-
tant need in this regard is research which assesses such trends
on a river basin, state, or regional basis.
was from the U.S. Geological Survey's National Stream
Quality Accounting Network.
14-30
-------
However, EPA's Environmental Outlook 1980 report analyzed
water pollution trends from a variety of sources, including
municipal and industrial point sources (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980,
ch. 6). This study, based largely on the Strategic Environmental
Assessment System (SEAS), analyzed several different pollutants
on a national and federal regional basis. For each pollutant,
three categories were considered: (1) gross generation—the
amount of a pollutant which exists in wastewaters of a plant be-
fore being subject to treatment; (2) net discharges—the amount
of a pollutant that would be discharged in waste streams even
after full treatment to meet the standards required by law; and
(3) intermediate discharges—calculated as the level of a pollu-
tant discharged if removal efficiencies were to remain at their
1975 level.-'- Generally, the analysis showed that because regions
4 and 6 are projected to experience large economic and popula-
tion growth, gross generation of pollutants will increase sub-
stantially. However, if stringent levels of pollution control
are assumed, net discharges to waterways from these point sources
show declines for most pollutants. This is especially the case
for toxic pollutants which are subject to more stringent stan-
dards than "conventional" pollutants (BOD, suspended solids,
etc.). If only intermediate discharge levels were met, then pol-
lutant loadings would increase in every case, generally by at
least a factor of 2. In short, this analysis showed the impor-
tance of complying with existing or proposed effluent guidelines
if point source water pollution is to be improved or maintained in
the Sunbelt.
Additional findings from Environmental Outlook 1980 relevant
to federal regions 4 and 6 are summarized below. The purpose of
this discussion is to briefly examine the major factors which will
affect pollution trends and the uncertainties involved in such
projections. Some of the important assumptions, data deficien-
cies, and uncertainies are (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980, ch. 6):
• Overall, assumptions about compliance should be con-
sidered optimistic. Treatment levels are based on
compliance deadlines specified in the 1972 FWPCA and
do not incorporate changes in the 1977 CWA, although
imposition of BAT standards on industrial sources is
assumed to lag two years behind schedule and thus they
will not be met until 1985. Also SEAS projections based
on BAT for industrial sources should be considered opti-
mistic since BCT will probably be less stringent.
• On the other hand, application of more stringent stan-
dards based on receiving water quality in some areas
1The calculation of intermediate discharges was not included
for some pollutants, including phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand
(COD), and toxics.
14-31
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could cause SEAS projections on discharges to be
overstated.
• SEAS discharge estimates are likely to be understated
because not all industrial categories are covered and
comparisons with other data sources indicate that some
discharge coefficients may be underestimated.
• Regional differences in compliance schedules, water qual-
ity based standards, and levels of treatment which may
exist are not accounted for.
• Although the importance of toxic pollutants is recognized,
there is a considerable lack of systematic data on indus-
trial discharges, especially in the case of toxic organic
chemicals. Consequently, SEAS toxic pollution estimates
are fragmentary and cover only a small fraction of the 65
classes of priority toxic pollutants recognized by EPA.
Despite these difficulties, analysis of these projections is use-
ful in helping to understand some of the complex interrelation-
ships between industrial/population growth and the potential for
increased water pollution.
Table 14-7 summarizes the trends for five pollutants in terms
of both gross generation and net discharges. Key points concern-
ing these findings are (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980, ch. 6):
• BOD; Despite dramatic increases in gross generation
due largely to growth in population and pulp and paper
production, net discharges are projected to decrease
over 30 percent in each region. Municipal treatment
facilities are forecast to remain the major point dis-
charges of BOD throughout the 1975 to 2000 time period.
The pulp and paper industry is currently, and is pro-
jected to remain, the largest industrial source of BOD
but if full compliance is achieved by the industry, net
discharges would decline by 85 percent. This would
particularly benefit Region 4 since the SEAS projec-
tions show it accounting for 25 percent of pulp and
paper production in 2000, second only to Region 5
(26 percent) (U.S., ORD, EPA, 1980, ch. 6).
• Suspended Solids; Gross generation of suspended sol-
ids is projected to increase sharply through 2000,
but full compliance with BAT standards would cause a
substantial downward trend in net discharges. The
largest generation sources of suspended solids are
municipalities, pulp and paper, aluminum, steel, and
coal preparation. Assuming full compliance with efflu-
ent guidelines, in 2000 municipal sources would
account for 75 percent of net discharges nationally.
14-32
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TABLE 14-7: POINT SOURCE POLLUTION TRENDS
(percent change between 1975 and 2000)
Pollutant
BOD
Region 4
Gross Net
Generation Discharge
+ 97
- 35
Region 6
Gross Net
Generation Discharge
+ 93
- 31
Suspended
Solids
Dissolved
Solids
Nitrogen
Phosphorus
+ 160
+163
+ 60
+ 42
- 65
+140
+ 17
— 6
+212
+183
+ 72
+ 75
- 89
+130
+ 43
+ 36
Source: U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980, ch. 6. Based on the "high
growth scenario."
Dissolved Solids;^ Although water quality criteria for
dissolved solids exist, there are no national effluent
guidelines and control of dissolved solids typically
occurs only coincidentally in the control of other
pollutants. As shown in Table 14-7, both gross genera-
tions and net discharges are projected to show increases
The organic chemicals industry is a major point source
of dissolved solids in regions 4 and 6.
Nitrogen;2 Large increases in gross generation of
nitrogen compounds are projected in both regions,
primarily due to population growth. Higher nitrogen
^Municipal sources were not included in this analysis since
estimates for dissolved solids levels in municipal sewage were
not available.
2There are not general effluent standards for nitrogen com-
pounds but controls for other pollutants coincidentally remove
some nitrogen. In addition, in the case of water quality-
limited receiving waters, some facilities have nitrogen effluent
limitations imposed.
14-33
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generation levels are also expected to result from
increases in output of nitrate fertilizers, meat
products, organic chemicals, and steel industries
in Region 4. Net discharges increase primarily
because of the release of nitrogen from municipal
treatment facilities and the organic chemicals
industry.
• Phosphorus; -*• Municipal sewage is by far the most
significant point source of phosphorus and, thus,
overall trends primarily follow trends in this
source. Despite a projected 40 percent increase in
phosphorus generation in Region 4, net discharges
are expected to decline slightly because of effec-
tive controls in the inorganic chemicals and meat
products processing industries. However, increases
in net discharges from municipal sewage treatment
plants are expected to partially offset industrial
improvements. The increase in both generation and
net discharges in Region 6 are due primarily to popu-
lation growth, as sewage effluent accounts for over
80 percent of the gross generation and 95 percent of
the net point discharges in this region.
The Environmental Outlook 1980 report also analyzed trends
for selected toxic chemicals, but generally on a national basis
rather than on a detailed regional basis. Findings for three of
these toxic compounds are presented below in order to illustrate
some of the trends and uncertainties involved.
• Cadmium; Net discharges were projected to decrease
by 72 percent nationally due to an assumption of zero
discharge after 1985 (BAT) by the electroplating in-
dustry, a major source at present. Only the organic
chemical industry and nonferrous metals industries
were projected by SEAS to release significant quan-
tities of cadmium after 1985. Region 6 showed the
greatest growth in gross generation, while regions
2 and 4 would account for the greatest portions of
net discharges.
• Mercury; Gross generation of mercury is expected to
decline nationally from over 350 tons in 1975 to 130
tons in 2000, and net discharges are estimated to
remain at below 5 tons per year. Over 99 percent of
mercury discharges came from the inorganic chemicals
^Phosphorus is discharged in two forms: elemental phosphorus
which is particularly toxic to animal and plant life and subject
to bioaccumulation; and phosphates, which is one of the major
nutrients required by plants.
14-34
-------
industry in 1975 and the projections show this in-
dustry would discharge less than one ton per year by
2000. Regions 4 and 6 are projected to remain the
major generators of mercury wastes, especially Region
6 which is projected to account for 38 percent of the
national total. However, for all regions the pro-
jections of net discharges by 2000 are considered to
be "insignificant" (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980, p. 319).
• Phenol and Phenolic Compounds; These toxic pollu-
tants are present in industrial wastewaters as both
dissolved solids and as oil and grease. In Region
6, net discharges of phenol are projected to decline
by 95 percent due to considerable improvement in con-
trols on the organic chemicals industry (in the form
of oil and grease) and the petroleum refining indus-
try. In contrast, net discharges in Region 4 are
projected to decline by only 27 percent by 2000.
This is due to significant improvement in controls
by the steel, organic chemicals, plastics, and pet-
roleum refining industries being offset somewhat by
increases in net discharges by the aluminum and tex-
tile industries.
In summary, many factors will interact to affect future point
source pollution levels in the Sunbelt. In contrast to nonpoint
sources, the basic regulatory structure is in place through the
NPDES program to control pollution from point sources. Past
efforts under this program resulted in dramatic improvements in
discharge levels and receiving water quality in many specific
areas. If current standards are met, improvements can be expected
to continue. However, in spite of these controls continued degra-
dation can be anticipated in some instances due to expanding popu-
lation and industry. For example, discharges of dissolved solids
and nitrogen can be expected to increase. Of course, the water
quality changes and resulting impacts will be site-specific. Fin-
ally, much more work is required in the area of toxics. Water
quality management agencies have a good understanding of conven-
tional pollutants from point sources, but not of toxics. Water
quality standards and monitoring networks do not address many
toxics in most states, and EPA only recently published ambient
criteria for 65 priority toxic pollutants (U.S., EPA, Off. of
Water Program Operations, 1981, p. 7).
14.3.3 Nonpoint Sources
As described earlier, nonpoint source pollution is currently
widespread, nationally and in the Sunbelt. The most significant
sources are runoff from agricultural, silvicultural, and urban
areas, and discharges from individual sewage systems (e.g.,
14-35
-------
septic tanks). In contrast to point sources, very little prog-
ress has been made during the 70's in controlling these sources
of pollution. If water quality goals are to be met, controls on
nonpoint sources must be improved. Trends and issues for two of
the most important categories of nonpoint pollution—urban runoff
and agricultural runoff—are discussed below. EPA's highest
national priority nonpoint source problems are for these two
sources (U.S., EPA, Off. of Water Program Operations, 1981, p.
6).
A. Urban Runoff
Urban rainfall runoff is currently cited as a significant
contributor to water quality degradation in heavily populated
areas (U.S., EPA, 1978, p. 16), and as the Sunbelt grows, its
relative contribution to water pollution will increase. Almost
every type of pollution is found in urban runoff, with the most
severe effects coming from suspended solids and heavy metals.
Bacteria, BOD, COD, nutrients, and oil and grease also are asso-
ciated with urban runoff. These pollutants come from such
sources as air pollutants that settle in the streets, organic
debris, animal wastes, discarded litter, oil, and fertilizers
and other lawn care chemicals.
Discharges of urban runoff can be of three types:
• Storm sewers;
• Combined sewers (i.e., sewers in which rainwater is
combined with domestic sewage); and
• Unsewered runoff.
Overflows of combined sewers can represent a significant source
of pollution in addition to that associated with rainfall runoff.
Control of urban runoff does not come under any specific federal
effluent guidelines, but discharges from storm sewers and com-
bined sewer overflows are subject to NPDES permits. That is,
once urban runoff enters the sewer system, it is supposed to
meet applicable NPDES requirements (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980,
p. 346). Therefore, technically speaking, combined sewers and
storm sewers are considered to be point sources, but they are
often discussed as a nonpoint source.
Attempts to quantify current pollutant loadings or to project
future trends in urban runoff are subject to considerable uncer-
tainty. In the 1976 National Residuals Discharge Inventory, it
was estimated that urban runoff contributes 1.7 million tons per
year (tpy) of BOD and 30 million tpy of suspended solids. How-
ever, these estimates may err by an order of magnitude (Luken,
Basta, and Pechan, 1976). Table 14-8 shows one estimate of the
14-36
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TABLE 14-8: ESTIMATED MIX OF U.S. URBAN RUNOFF POLLUTION
(thousands of tons)
Pollutant 1975
BOD 370
COD 3,400
Suspended Solids 6,300
Dissolved Solids 4,000
Phosphorus 5
Nitrogen 58
Oil and Grease 86
Source: U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980, p. 350.
typical composition of pollutants in urban runoff on a national
basis. On a regional basis it is estimated that urban runoff
discharges in regions 4 and 6 are equal to 16 percent and 8 per-
cent respectively of the national total (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980,
p. 351).
Various nonstructural and structural control measures can
reduce urban runoff pollution. Nonstructural measures (or Best
Management Practices [BMP's]) focus on prevention and include
measures such as land use planning, use of natural drainage
features, erosion controls, street repair and sweeping, collection
system maintenance, control of litter, use of detention ponds, and
on-site storage for runoff. Structural alternatives include con-
ventional wastewater treatment practices, including primary and
secondary treatment devices and high- and low-density area reser-
voirs (Metcalf and Eddy, 1977, pp. 12-13).
Because sewered urban runoff is usually concentrated when the
first appreciable amount of rainfall occurs (that is, the "first
flush" effect), and is released from a set of discharge points,
a significant amount of pollution control can, in theory, be
achieved using structural alternatives during the first flush.
Nevertheless, nonstructural alternatives generally are preferred,
both for sewered and unsewered urban runoff, because of lower
costs, faster results, and better water quality protection. How-
ever, the primary difficulties in using them are that benefits are
nearly impossible to quantify and they must be implemented on a
large scale basis to be effective (Metcalf and Eddy, 1977, pp.
12-13).
14-37
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Because regions 4 and 6 are projected to have the largest pop-
ulation increases over the next 30 years, they are expected to
have the largest increase in urban runoff pollution. These pro-
jections are uncertain and actual pollution levels will depend on
specific land use patterns and control measures. If it is assumed
that increases in urban runoff loadings are directly proportional
to urban population increases, then improved structural or non-
structural controls would be required in order to maintain 1975
levels (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980, p. 353).
In an attempt to improve the control of urban runoff, EPA
instituted the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program. Twenty-eight
urban areas were selected in which data will be collected to
assess urban nonpoint source problems and evaluate the effects
of these sources on receiving water quality. The program will
also evaluate BMPs which could be used to control the pollution
from urban runoff. Most of these prototype projects will be
completed between FY 81 and FY 83 (U.S., CEQ, 1980, p. 135; U.S.,
EPA, Off. of Water Program Operations, 1981, p. 9).
B. Agricultural Runoff
In rural areas, agriculture—irrigated and nonirrigated crop
production and animal production—is the main nonpoint source of
water pollution. Pollutants of concern include sediments, nutri-
ents, pesticides, dissolved solids (salinity), and bacteria. As
agricultural production grows and practices change, they can have
a significant effect on water quality (see Chapter 9). In the
southern region, for example, about 200 million pounds of pesti-
cides and 6 million tons of fertilizer are applied annually at the
present time. Agricultural activities have been estimated to cur-
rently affect 62 percent of the basins in Region 4 and 87 percent
of the basins in Region 6 (see Section 14.2.2.A).
Nonpoint source water pollution from agricultural activities
can be controlled most effectively at the source through the use
of BMPs. For crop production, in particular, proper land use and
agricultural management practices are the key to protecting water
quality. Erosion, and hence sediment loads, can be reduced by use
of terraces, diversions, strip cropping, contouring, grassed wa-
terways, no-till farming and/or crop rotations. Nutrient releases
can be reduced by improved planning of fertilizer applications.
For example, alternating production of nitrogen-fixing crops with
crops requiring heavy fertilization can reduce the long-term
average quantity of nitrogen that must be applied to soil. For
pesticides, as with nutrients, BMPs must include consideration of
timing, type, amount, and method of application. These control
measures can be used in conjunction with integrated pest manage-
ment, which attempts to minimize the use of chemical pesticides
through crop rotation, mechanical measures to remove food for
pests, biological controls (fungus-coated seeds or predator
14-38
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insects), insect sterilization, use of natural toxins and insect
attractants, and development of disease-resistant crops (Thronson,
1978, p. 0-2).
The particular BMPs to be used depend on site-specific con-
ditions and their effects on nonpoint source pollution are highly
variable from crop to crop and from locality to locality. Thus,
it is difficult to generalize about reductions in sediment and
other pollutant loads to be expected from the adoption of BMPs
(U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980, p. 358).
Agricultural water pollution trends have been analyzed in
Environmental Outlook 1980. They are summarized below for the
Sunbelt Region.Limitations of these projections are as follows;1
• The analysis was limited to only eight major crops
(corn, cotton, soybeans, wheat, tobacco, potatoes,
citrus fruit, and apples) which account for only about
one-half of all crop acreage, but about 80 percent of
crop acreage receiving pesticides and fertilizers;
• Continuation of current trends in pesticide and ferti-
lizer use is assumed. Although it is expected that
BMPs will become more widely used (especially since
the USDA is to provide 50 percent funding for prac-
tices to improve water quality), it is difficult to
quantify the effects of such practices;
• Estimates of sediment and nutrient releases appear to
be too low by at least a factor of 8 to 14 due to in-
complete coverage of all crops and low estimates on
discharge coefficients.
Although these and other limitations make absolute discharge lev-
els uncertain, the trends and regional distribution revealed in
the projections improve our understanding of where agricultural
runoff may be of greater concern in the future and some of the
factors contributing to these changes.
projection methodology used the following factors:
crop production forecasts projected within the economic module
of SEAS; crop yield forecasts from USDA; annual erosion esti-
mates per acre by crop and soil type calculated using estimated
rainfall; soil erodibility and topography; crop management fac-
tors and conservation practices using the "universal soil loss
equation"; sediment delivery ratios based on the size of the
drainage area; and pesticide and fertilizer application rates
by crop based on projected trends for the USDA (U.S., EPA, ORD,
1980, p. 359).
14-39
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Table 14-9 summarizes some of the findings from the Environ-
mental Outlook 1980 report for regions 4 and 6.
• Soil Loss; Soil loss, and hence sediment, would
increase 19 and 14 percent in regions 4 and 6,
respectively. These projections do not take into
account potential improvements through the use of
BMPs; however, it is estimated that BMPs can reduce
soil loss per acre by 30 to 50 percent (USDA, SCS,
1978). Hence, if such measures were applied region-
wide, net discharges of sediment could actually be
reduced by 2000.
• Nutrients; Discharges of nutrients (nitrogen, phos-
phorus, and potassium) are projected to increase sub-
stantially in both regions—about 50 percent for
nitrogen and 100 percent for phosphorus and potassium.
On an absolute basis, Region 4 contributes consider-
ably more of these nutrients than Region 6. Across
regions 4 and 6, increased soybean production is pro-
jected to account for a substantial share of the
increased nutrient loadings.
TABLE 14-9: PROJECTIONS OF AGRICULTURAL POLLUTANTS
Region 4
Region 6
Pollutant
Soil Lossa
Nitrogen
Phosphorus
Potassium
Herbicides
Insecticides
Fungicides
Miscellaneous
Pesticides
1975
Quantity
(tons )
900
840
480
240
44
25
1.1
23.5
2000
Percent
Change
+ 19
+ 53
+107
4-100
+ 81
+ 24
+300
- 28
1975
Quantity
(tons)
590
560
280
120
23
33
0.2
6.5
2000
Percent
Change
+ 14
+ 48
+ 97
+ 92
+ 79
- 3
+800
+ 3
Source: U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980, pp. 364-85.
aSuspended solids, dissolved solids, and BOD discharges are
assumed to be proportional to soil loss.
14-40
-------
• Pesticides; Gross discharges of pesticides (herbi-
cides, insecticides, fungicides, and miscellaneous)
are much smaller than other pollutants but are poten-
tially significant because of their toxicity. Dis-
charges of fungicides are projected to show the great-
est relative increase, largely due to increased use
per acre on potatoes and soybeans and higher soybean
acreage. However, absolute levels of fungicide dis-
charges are still relatively small, and the environ-
mental concerns associated with a large increase are
unknown. Miscellaneous pesticide discharges are pro-
jected to decrease dramatically in Region 4 because
of decreased use per acre on tobacco, but this
region would still account for 64 percent of the
national total.
In sum, water pollution from agricultural activities is wide-
spread and considerable uncertainty exists about the effectiveness
of controls. Also, most control programs are voluntary and be-
cause of their expense, there are implementation barriers (see
Chapter 9). Approximately 30 prototype agricultural projects and
13 Rural Clean Water Program projects, supported by EPA and USDA,
will be completed between FY 81 and FY 83. These prototype proj-
ects are selected to provide answers to key questions involving
cause/effect relationships, cost-effectiveness of controls, and
fiscal/financial arrangements. The overall goal is to build a
national nonpoint source control data base (U.S., EPA, Off. of
Water Program Operations, 1981, p. 9).
14.3.4 Ground Water Protection
Protection of ground water quality is different from surface
water protection in several ways. First, the public has only
recently begun to realize the extent to which ground water has
already been degraded and the continuing threats that exist. This
is partly due to the fact that ground water is out of sight and,
thus, pollution of this resource is not as immediately obvious.
Thus, regulatory and research programs to protect ground water
have lagged several years behind those for surface water and to a
great extent are still largely undeveloped.
Second, data on ground water contamination are sparse, and
most information comes from intensive local studies and anecdotal
reports (see Section 14.2.1). There is no nationwide ground water
quality monitoring network similar to that for surface water. Two
factors contribute to the difficulty of assessing ground water
quality problems: (1) sampling problems—ground water quality
measured from one point in an aquifer may not be representative of
the water even a few hundred feet away; and (2) system definition
problems—monitoring and projecting ground water quality changes
for an aquifer require an understanding of recharge and discharge
14-41
-------
areas, rates and direction for water movement, geochemistry of the
aquifer, etc., which is a lengthy and difficult process.
Third, in contrast to surface waters, future projections of
pollution discharges to ground water are essentially nonexistent.
This is explained not only by the very different nature of the
physical system, but also because the potential pollution sources
are so diverse and not well understood. For example, while it
is relatively easy to project point source discharges of conven-
tional pollutants from municipal sewage treatment plants based
on expected growth in population, attempts to predict rates at
which given pollutants may leach from waste disposal ponds into
nearby aquifers are very uncertain.
Finally, unlike surface waters, ground water pollution often
is essentially irreversible since ground water is slow moving and
biological degradation of contaminants is nonexistent. Because
the costs of cleaning up an aquifer are often prohibitive, pre-
vention of contamination generally is the only viable alterna-
tive.
In order to deal with the problems of ground water protec-
tion, EPA proposed a Ground Water Protection Strategy in 1980 to
serve as the agency's policy framework, particularly in estab-
lishing coordinated relationshps with the states. Although this
policy had not been adopted by EPA by the end of 1981, it is use-
ful to briefly consider it to better understand the issues in-
volved. The objectives of this ground water protection strategy
were (U.S., EPA, Off. of Drinking Water, 1980):
By 1985
• To initiate ground water protection strategies in all
states and to develop the necessary institutional
capacities at the state and local levels.
• To implement fully the currently enacted federal regu-
latory programs which affect ground water, e.g., RCRA,
Underground Injection Control Program, and Superfund.
• To launch efforts to evaluate ground water quality,
to ameliorate the most hazardous conditions discov-
ered, and to implement methods of managing newly
discovered ground water contamination problems.
• To provide a process whereby states and local govern-
ments and the public can set priorities among com-
peting activities which may use or contaminate
ground water.
14-42
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By 1990
• To ensure that appropriate levels of protection are
being provided for the ground water resources in each
state and that each state has a complete program
which has been fully implemented to manage all ground
water.
One of the key, and most controversial, management approaches
in the proposed strategy was the concept of ground water classi-
fication. The premise of a classification system is that differ-
ent levels of protection should be provided to ground water ac-
cording to a number of factors. The classification process
should identify high priority ground water areas for high levels
of protection and assist in identifying those areas least envi-
ronmentally sensitive for siting potentially polluting activi-
ties. Classification decisions about the appropriate levels of
protection would be based on such factors as: present and pro-
jected future uses; current quality; yield, or volume of water
available; availability of alternative water supplies; and vul-
nerability to contamination. Until a classification system is
developed and adopted, EPA is to maintain a policy of protecting
ground water which is currently of drinking water quality or
better (U.S., EPA, Off. of Drinking Water, 1980).
It has been suggested that this classification approach has
too many uncertainties and should not be undertaken until the
consequences are reasonably well understood (Howells, 1981).
Until then, it was argued that national and state policies should
provide for the protection of all high-quality and sole-source
ground waters irrespective of projected uses. Reasons for taking
issue with the classification approach included: (1) there is too
much uncertainty involved in projecting future uses and decisions
affecting ground water quality are essentially irreversible;
(2) the problems of applying this concept to the discharge of
toxic substances in ground waters is extremely complex and prob-
ably would best be handled by a no-discharge policy; (3) ground
water systems are very complex and there would be serious prac-
tical implementation questions (e.g., how are multiple aquifers
involving water-table aquifers and continued deeper aquifers to
be handled where all underlie a land use in question?) (Howells,
1981).
A primary thrust of EPA's Proposed Ground Water Protection
Strategy was the encouragement of states to develop their own
programs. At the present time, Sunbelt states have widely vary-
ing programs for protecting ground water quality, as revealed in
a recent review by the U.S. Water Resources Council^ (U.S., WRC,
•'•Chapter 13 provides a similar review of state ground water
management programs (i.e., programs governing allocation and use)
14-43
-------
1981). Table 14-10 summarizes the ground water protection pro-
grams of our thirteen states in four categories:
• Regulatory Program; Identifies the major sources of
contamination regulated either under specific legis-
lation (e.g., hazardous wastes, surface mining, or
deep well injection) or under an agency's broad water
quality regulatory authority. Aimed at regulating
the identified source of contamination through a
permit process or prohibition of the activity;
• Classification System; Classifies aquifers accord-
ing to current or projected use and confers a degree
of protection necessary to maintain the designated
use;
• Ground Water Quality Standards; Specifies standards
designed to protect the designated classification (if
any) or specifies drinking water standards adopted
solely to protect public health unrelated to any
classification system; and
• Land Use Controls; Addresses state and local land
use programs which affect siting decisions. State
regulations, local zoning ordinances, and federal
designation of sole source aquifers are included.
As indicated in the table, all of the Sunbelt states regulate
at least some potential sources of ground water contamination,
with two states (New Mexico and North Carolina) controlling all
sources of ground water contamination. Two states (New Mexico
and Florida) have adopted ground water classification systems,
although three others (Kentucky, North Carolina, and South Caro-
lina) are in the process of developing such a program. Only four
states have adopted ground water (or drinking water) quality
standards, but several others are in the process. Finally, only
Florida has any broad land-use control program to protect aqui-
fers . Although authority is granted to local governments to use
zoning, only Dade County has done so. From this table, Florida
and New Mexico have the most comprehensive ground water protec-
tion programs. This is not surprising given the critical nature
of this resource to these two areas.
As the Sunbelt continues to grow, many activities will in-
crease the threat to ground waters. These include the need to
dispose of larger quantities of hazardous wastes from the expand-
ing industrial base, the increased use of septic tanks in non-
urban areas (including recreational areas), increased oil and gas
well drilling (especially in Region 6), increased pumping of
aquifers to meet the needs of an expanding populaton, increased
waste generation from air and water pollution controls (e.g.,
sewage sludge and flue gas desulfurization sludge), and increased
14-44
-------
TABLE 14-10: STATE GROUND WATER PROTECTION PROGRAMS
State
Regulatory Program
Classification System
Ground Water
Qua IIty Standards
Land Use Controls
Alabama Deep we 11 Injection of
Industrial wastes, land-
fills and other surface
activities
Dept. of PubIIc Health
considering drinking
water standards
Arkansas Landfills, surface
mining, septic tanks,
and deep well Injection
of ol I and gas brine
Governor's Task Force
on Water Po11cy may
recommend class I featIon
system
4*
I
Ul
Florida Deep well Injection of
Industrial wastes, salt
water intrusion, land-
f 11 Is, and surface
mining
Dept. of Environmental
Regulation has classi-
fied aquifers
Ground water quality
standards adopted to
protect drinking water
(under revision)
Local gov'ts authorized
to use zoning to protect
aquifers—Dade County
has done so; Biscayne
Aquifer sole source
Georgia Deep well injection of
industrial wastes, oil
and gas brine, under-
ground storage, surface
discharges, and land-
fills
Drinking water
standards adopted
Kentucky Landfills and surface
mining
Division of Water
developing use
designations
Division of Water
developing ground water
quality standards on
basis of use
Louisiana Landfills, surface
mining, deep welI
injection of Industrial
wastes, and salt water
intrusion
(continued)
-------
TABLE 14-10: (continued)
State
Regulatory Program
Classification System
Ground Water
Qua IIty Standards
Land Use Controls
Mississippi
Deep we I I Injection of
Industrial wastes and
oil and gas brine, and
landf II Is
Drinking water stan-
dards being developed
New Mexico
I
*>•
At I sources of ground
water contamination
Aquifers have been
classified by Water
Qua IIty Control
Commission
Water Qua 11ty ControI
Commission adopted stan-
dards to protect ground
water of 10,000 mg/1 or
less of TDS for domestic
and agricultural use
North
Carol Ina
Al 1 sources of ground
water contamination
Aquifers are
classified
being
Oklahoma Deep we 11 injection of
Industrial wastes, land-
fills, surface mining,
and salt water Intru-
sion
Drinking water stan-
dards adopted; ground
water protection stan-
dards are being planned
South Landfills, surface
Carolina mining, and other sur-
face activities
Aquifers are beginning
to be classified
General water quality
standards are being
adopted
Tennessee Deep welI injection of
Industrial wastes, land-
fills, and surface
mining
Texas
Waste water discharges,
solid and hazardous
wastes, deep welI injec-
tion of Industrial
wastes, and oil and gas
brine
Dept. of Health has
adopted drinking water
standards
Water Commission pro-
hibits certain activities
over Edwards Aquifer—
sole source aquifer
-------
levels of other land-disturbing activities (e.g., coal mining and
agricultural production). Mitigating these threats is the fact
that the environmental community and the public-at-large have be-
gun to recognize these problems and take appropriate actions. For
example, EPA has substantially increased its research effort deal-
ing with ground water, including establishing a National Center
for Ground Water Research. As shown in Table 14-10, many of the
states are improving their ground water protection programs. One
expert expressed the opinion that while the media has recently
focused much attention on pollution of water and its adverse
health effects, there is still reason for optimism. According to
Jay Lehr, Editor of the Water Well Journal (1981):
....While ground water pollution is widespread, all
scientists will agree that we have polluted less than
one percent of all ground water supplies and exalt in
the fact that activities are now moving forward to elim-
inate the sources of existing pollution. Some ground
water supplies will be cleansed, some will be abandoned
and most pollution sources will be eliminated. By the
end of this decade, we can expect 97 percent of all
ground water to remain in excellent shape and be well-
protected for future generations....You see, while the
media is just now deciding that the sky is falling, most
of the community of hydrogeologic scientists are celebra-
ting the fact that the nation has finally recognized the
fabulous potential of our ground water resources and the
malevolent forces which endanger it. There exists at
last the potential for eliminating the danger and maxi-
mizing the extent to which we utilize this vast and
misunderstood resource.
14.4 SUMMARY
Three categories of water quality problems and issues have
been discussed in this chapter: point source pollution, nonpoint
source pollution, and ground water protection. For each of these
categories, Table 14-11 summarizes major causal factors, the na-
ture and seriousness of the problem, and associated policy con-
cerns .
Two competing pressures will interact to affect the future of
water quality in the Sunbelt. On the positive side, the extensive
pollution control programs developed largely in the 1970's under
the federal CWA and various state programs are only recently be-
ginning to have an impact. As these efforts continue to take ef-
fect, water quality will improve greatly, as it has already in
many local areas. Thus, even with population and industrial
growth, the discharge of some pollutants should decline. Also,
realization of many of the threats to ground water quality has
14-47
-------
TABLE 14-11: PROBLEM CHARACTERIZATION MATRIX: WATER QUALITY
00
Impact or
Prob 1 em
Point
source
pol lutlon
Nonpolnt
source
pol lutlon
Causal Type of Problem
Factors Created
Population o Human Health
growth (BOD,
nutrients, <> Ecological
suspended
sol Ids) o Economic
Industrial
growth « Aesthetic
- Pulp and
Paper
Mills
- Chemicals
- Petroleum
Refining
- Primary
Metals
- Fabricated
Metals
- etc.
Agricultural • Human Health
runoff
o Ecological
Urban runoff
o Economic
Septic tanks
o Aesthetic
Mining runoff
Sllvicultural
runoff
Hazardous
mater 1 a 1
spills
Duration
Both a cui —
rent problem
and a ser-
ious future
problem as
population
and Indus-
try grow.
Both a cur-
rent problem
and a future
problem, es-
pec I a 1 1 y due
to growth In
agricultural
production
and urban
development.
Pervasiveness
Current! y a wide-
spread problem.
Municipal point
sources ser lous 1 y
affect 91 and 100
percent of the
bas 1 ns In the
Southeast and
Southcentral re-
gions respective-
ly. Industrial
point sources
seriously affect
74 and 70 percent
of the basins In
the Southeast and
Southcentral re-
gions respectively.
Currently a wide-
spread problem.
Agricultural run-
off seriously
affects 62 and 87
percent of the
bas 1 ns In the
Southeast and
Southcentral re-
gions, respective-
ly; s I ml lar fig-
ures for urban
runoff are 57 and
50 percent.
Magnitude/
Seriousness
By meeting planned dis-
charge standards, pro-
jections Indicate total
discharges will decline
in the future for some
pol lutants, but wl 1 1
Increase for others.
However, such projec-
tions are uncertain and
few studies have
attempted to project
long-term water quality
trends. Also, the eco-
nomic costs of meeting
existing or planned
standards will be high.
The most serious pollu-
tion problems from non-
point sources are bac-
teria, BOD and COD,
suspended solids (espe-
cially soil erosion),
nutrients, pesticides,
and, In Region 6, dls-
so 1 ved so 1 1 ds . Non-
polnt sources are fre-
quently the most common
cause of ground water
contamination. As
urban population and
agricultural production
grow, nonpolnt source
pollution In the Sun-
belt is likely to
become worse
Policy
Problems and Issues
o It may not be possible
to meet existing or
planned water quality
standards in some areas
with concentrated in-
dustrial population
growth and/or low
stream f 1 ows .
o There Is uncertainty as
to the future federal
role in assisting muni-
cipalities In construc-
ting sewage treatment
plants.
o Water quality standards
and monitoring networks
do not adequately ad-
dress toxic pollutants
In most states.
o Although nonpolnt
source pollution Is
w 1 des pr ead and dif-
ficult to control, no
broad-based regulatory
program exists.
o More research wl 1 1 be
needed to better define
the extent of nonpolnt
source pollution and
the effectiveness of
alternative controls
(e.g., soil consei —
vat Ion practices and
Integrated pest manage-
ment) .
(continued)
-------
TABLE 14-11: (Continued)
Impact or
Problem
Causal
Factors
Type of Problem
Created
Duration
Pervas ! veness
Magnitude/
Seriousness
Policy
Problems and Issues
Ground
water
protection
I
*«
10
Petroleum
production
Overpumplng
of
aquifers
Waste
disposal
Septic
tanks
Mining
Human Health
• Economic
Once ground
water Is con-
taminated, It
can be essen-
tial I y Irre-
versible.
There Is no compre-
hensive data base on
ground water qual-
ity. However, based
on Intensive local
studies, ground water
contamination Is more
widespread than pre-
viously thought
(especially low
levels of highly
toxIc chemIcaIs).
Because ground water
serves as a major
source of drinking
water, recent dis-
coveries of trace
levels of highly
toxIc po11utants In
these resources
creates serious
human health con-
cerns.
Research and regulatory
programs to protect
vital ground water re-
sources lag several
years behind those for
surface water.
There is no comprehen-
sive ground water qual-
ity monitoring network
similar to that for
surface water. Econom-
ic costs of a large-
scale monitoring pro-
gram wouId be high.
Although, states cui—
rent I y have the major
role in ground water
protection programs,
there Is a wide varia-
tion among the states
In their current abi-
lity to deal with such
problems.
-------
increased; expanded research and regulatory programs will help to
reduce these threats.
On the negative side, several factors are likely to cause
further declines in water quality in some areas. Even with ex-
pensive pollution control facilities, point and nonpoint sources
will deteriorate water quality in areas of concentrated growth.
For example, in several areas of concentrated urban growth in
Region 6, stream flow patterns are such that during parts of the
year the entire flow may consist mostly of municipal and indus-
trial effluents. In such instances it will be technologically
difficult and expensive to meet existing or planned water quality
standards. Urban runoff will exacerbate the problems, since this
source is especially difficult to control. As agricultural and
silvicultural production expands, nonpoint sources of pollution
will increase, especially if production expands into marginal
lands. However, this will depend on the extent to which various
control measures (e.g., soil conservation practices and inte-
grated pest management) are applied and their effectiveness.
Considerably more research is required in this area. In addi-
tion, many other projected growth activities could exacerbate
nonpoint source pollution problems. These include expanded coal
and lignite mining, oil and gas production, septic tanks, spills
of hazardous materials, waste disposal (all types), and various
construction projects (e.g., highways and waterways). Finally,
increased water consumption can threaten water quality and ripar-
ian ecosystems.
There have been very few studies which have attempted to pro-
ject water quality trends on a regional basis under alternative
growth assumptions and levels of pollution control. Considerable
effort will be required to balance economic development and the
protection of the water resources, which are important to such
development over the long term. In some cases, it will not be
possible to meet water quality standards under projected growth
levels and current regulatory programs will be inadequate to en-
sure long-term protection of water resources critical to contin-
ued growth. Thus, water quality protection will be a key issue
facing policymakers concerned with the growth of the Sunbelt over
the next two to three decades.
14-50
-------
REFERENCES
Clean Water Act of 1977, Pub. L. 95-217, 91 Stat. 1566.
Dolgin, Erica L., and Thomas G. P. Guiltaert, eds. 1974. Federal
Environmental Law. St. Paul, Minn.: West Publishing Co.
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972, Pub. L.
92-500, 86 Stat. 816.
Geraghty and Miller, Inc. 1977. Groundwater Pollution Problems
in the Southeastern United States. Ada, Okla.: U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, Robert S. Kerr Environmental
Research Laboratory.
Howells, David H. 1981. "Comments on a National Ground-Water
Protection Strategy," Guest Editorial. Ground Water 19
(September/October):466-68.
Lehr, Jay. 1981. "On the Brighter Side." Water Well Journal,
August.
Luken, R. A., D. J. Basta, and E. H. Pechan. 1976. The National
Residuals Discharge Inventory. Washington, B.C.: National
Commission on Water Quality. As cited in U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research and Development
(ORD). 1980. Environmental Outlook 1980. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, p. 344.
Metcalf and Eddy, Inc. 1977. Urban Stormwater Management and
Technology; Update and User's Guide. As cited in U.S.,
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and
Development (ORD). 1980. Environmental Outlook 1980.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, pp. 346-47.
Nemerow, Nelson L. 1978. Industrial Water Pollution; Origins,
Characteristics, and Treatment. Reading, Mass.: Addison-
Wesley.
Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-523, 88 Stat. 1660.
Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977, Pub. L.
95-87, 91 Stat. 445.
14-51
-------
Texas, Department of Water Resources. 1981. The State of Texas
Water Quality Management Five Years Strategy: FY 82 Baseline.
Austin: Texas, Department of Water Resources.
Tennessee Vally Authority (TVA). 1980. Is the Water Getting
Cleaner? A Survey of Water Quality in the Tennessee Valley--
1980. Knoxville: TVA.
Thronson, R. E. 1978. Nonpoint Source Control Guidance; Agri-
cultural Activities. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environmental
Protection Agency. As cited in U.S., Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Research and Development (ORD). 1980.
Environmental Outlook 1980. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, p.356.
U.S., Department of Agriculture (USDA), Soil Conservation Service
(SCS). 1978. Environmental Impact Statement; Rural Clean
Water Program. Washington, D.C.: USDA.
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1979. Environ-
mental Quality, Tenth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1980. Environ-
mental Quality, Eleventh Annual Report. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1973. Methods for
Identifying and Evaluating the Nature and Extent of Nonpoint
Sources of Pollutants. Washington, D.C.: U.S., EPA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1978. National
Water Quality Inventory; 1977 Report to Congress. Washing-
ton, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Drinking
Water. 1980. Proposed Ground Water Protection Strategy.
Washington, D.C.: U.S., EPA,
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Planning
and Management, Program Evaluation Division. 1980. National
Accomplishments in Pollution Control; 1970-1980, Some Case
Histories. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research
and Development (ORD). 1980. Environmental Outlook, 1980.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Solid
Waste. 1980. Final Environmental Impact Statement Part I
for Subtitle C, Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of
1976, 2 vols. Washington, D.C.: U.S., EPA.
14-52
-------
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Water
Program Operations. 1981. Water Quality Management Five
Year Strategy; FY-82 Baseline. Washington, D.C.: U.S.,
EPA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Region IV. 1978.
Southeast Environmental Profiles, 1977. Atlanta, Ga.: EPA.
U.S., Water Resources Council (WRC). 1978a. The Nation's Water
Resources 1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. 2:
Water Quantity, Quality, and Related Land Considerations.
Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Water Resources Council (WRC). 1978b. The Nation's Water
Resources 1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. 4,
Pt. 12: Texas-Gulf Region. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office.
U.S., Water Resources Council (WRC). 1978c. The Nation's Water
Resources 1975-2000, Second National Water Assessment, Vol. 1:
Summary. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
U.S., Water Resources Council (WRC). 1981. State of the States;
Water Resource Planning and Management; Ground Water Supple-
ment. Washington, D.C.: U.S., WRC.
14-53
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CHAPTER 15
HAZARDOUS WASTES
HIGHLIGHTS
Status and Trends
1. The U.S. generates about 4 billion tons of solid waste
each year. There is a wide range of estimates as to how
much of this is hazardous; one source estimates 41 mil-
lion tons per year are potentially hazardous and more
than half of these wastes are generated in Regions 4 and 6,
Hazardous waste generation is expected to double nation-
wide between 1975 and 2000.
2. Hazardous waste problems are ubiquitous. One source
estimates that in our study area there are:
(a) 200,000 individual sources;
(b) 2,400 transporters; and
(c) 7,200 known disposal sites.
3. EPA has estimated that only about 10 percent of all haz-
ardous wastes are currently disposed of in a manner that
would meet proposed regulations by the Resource Conser-
vation and Recovery Act. Nearly 50 percent is disposed
of in unlined holding ponds, 30 percent in nonsecure
landfills, and about 10 percent is either disposed of on
land illegally, dumped into sewers, or incinerated with-
out proper controls.
4. The chemicals and allied products industry accounts for
most hazardous wastes: 62 percent nationally, 85 percent
in Region 4, and 81 percent in Region 6 (in 1980). Other
significant sources in Region 6 are petroleum and coal
products, accounting for 8 percent of the region's total.
15-i
-------
5. As of April 1980, EPA had identified 971 hazardous waste
disposal sites in Region 6 that could potentially threaten
human health and the environment:
—183 in Louisiana
—491 in Texas
--161 in Arkansas
— 74 in Oklahoma
— 64 in New Mexico
Other sites probably exist which have not yet been
identified.
6. A recent study comparing waste disposal demands in 1981
with treatment and disposal capacity found that regions
4 and 6 are better off than any other federal region.
Regions 4 and 6 have an estimated surplus capacity of
0.21 million and 6.6 million wet metric tons per year,
respectively. This compares with Region 5 (the worst
off) which has a projected shortage of 489 thousand wet
metric tons per year.
• Key Problems and Issues
7. Even if all hazardous waste generation were stopped im-
mediately, there would continue to be ground water contam-
ination problems as wastes which were improperly disposed
of in the past leach out and percolate into the ground
water system.
8. The RCRA regulations could prove economically hard to
bear for small generators. A very important issue will
be for local, state, and federal authorities to provide
some assistance to these smaller companies to keep them
in business. This could include technical assistance,
low interest loans, and support of consortia of small
generators.
9. Intense public opposition has blocked siting of new haz-
ardous waste management facilities, forestalled expan-
sion of existing facilities and, in several instances,
caused operating facilities to be closed. An important
issue is what mechanisms at the federal, state, or local
level might be used to develop hazardous waste management
capabilities to protect public health and the environment,
15-ii
-------
10. Government generators of hazardous wastes (especially
DOD) are important but are often overlooked. DOD is
just now beginning to recognize that they will be sub-
ject to RCRA regulations. In addition to "typical"
government generators (such as Tinker Air Force Base in
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma) there are several unique
hazardous generators in our study area including White
Sands Missile Range, Redstone Arsenal, and the Savannah
River Plant.
11. High temperature incineration is a possible solution for
many kinds of hazardous wastes. However, air quality
regulations may not be adequate to prevent air quality
degradation because of the lack of standards for toxic
pollutants and the difficulty of monitoring for a wide
variety of toxics at very low concentrations.
12. Transportation of hazardous wastes to off-site disposal
areas greatly increases the potential for inadvertent
releases into the environment through accidents or emergen-
cies. Establishing standards for transporters, without
becoming so restrictive as to force them out-of-business,
will be an important issue for the region.
13. The concern with hazardous wastes is so new that there
are still many data gaps, regulatory uncertainties, and
scientific unknowns. One important need is to classify
hazardous wastes with respect to degree of hazard, instead
of simple qualitative terms.
14. Educational programs are needed to inform industry, fed-
eral, state, and local government officials, and the
public-at-large of the hazardous waste problem and its
economic and environmental consequences.
15. Comprehensive ground water quality monitoring programs are
needed to detect contamination from hazardous waste dis-
posal. Such programs exist for air quality and surface
water (see Chapter 14).
15-iii
-------
CHAPTER 15
HAZARDOUS WASTES
15.1 INTRODUCTION
The hazards associated with the disposal of toxic waste did
not become widely known until 1978 in the aftermath of the Love
Canal incident. However, waste disposal is not a recent problem.
The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Solid Waste
has estimated that about four billion tons of solid waste are pro-
duced every year in the U.S. by industry, agriculture, mining, and
municipalities. Of that:
• 3 billion tons are mining waste;
• 475 million tons are agricultural waste;
• 380 million tons are industrial waste;
• 145 million tons are municipal refuse; and
• 55 million tons are sewage sludge.
Of this total, it is estimated that 33 to 48 million tons per
year are hazardous (see EPA Journal, 1979; and U.S., EPA, Office
of Solid Waste, 1980). Wastes are hazardous if they may cause or
significantly contribute to serious illness or death, or if they
pose a substantial threat to the environment when improperly
managed (see page 15-2).
By 1979, EPA estimated only about 10 percent of the hazardous
waste was disposed of in a manner that would meet proposed regu-
lations. They found that about 50 percent was disposed in unlined
evaporative holding ponds, 30 percent in nonsecure landfills, and
10 percent was dumped illegally on land or in municipal sewers or
incinerated without proper controls (Maugh, 1979, p. 819; and EPA
Journal, 1979).
By 1981, EPA had identified 9,300 hazardous waste sites, had
carried out 5,900 preliminary assessments, had completed invest-
igations for 2,700, and had taken emergency action for 52 sites.
Of the total number of 760,000 producers of hazardous waste, 92
percent produce less than one ton per month and 8 percent produce
15-1
-------
more than five tons per month. The top 5 percent produce 98 per-
cent of the total of hazardous waste.
This distribution of producers and modes of disposal compli-
cates regulation. Big industrial producers can afford the in-
vestment for treatment and disposal either on- or off-site. In
contrast, many of the small producers cannot afford the necessary
capital for safe disposal. Furthermore, hazardous wastes result
from the manufacture of many products which are indispensable for
agriculture, industry, and households and which are produced in
competition among national and foreign firms. Thus, consideration
should be given to the costs of regulation on the competitiveness
of U.S. firms in both the national and the international markets.
Another complication arises from the fact that safe disposal
of hazardous waste involves both environmental and occupational
hazards in its transport, handling, and chemical treatment. De-
cisions on how to best control hazardous substances need to con-
sider not only the economic costs, but also the extent to which a
hazardous waste disposal industry should be encouraged, the role
that states and local authorities should play, and how to balance
risks of disposal with those of handling and transport.
15.2 CURRENT STATUS
15.2.1 The Regulatory System
Several federal and state laws regulate the generation, trans-
portation, and disposal of hazardous waste. The most important of
these is the 1976 Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA).
RCRA deals broadly with solid waste management, as summarized in
Table 15-1. Subtitle C of RCRA deals specifically with hazardous
waste, which is defined as:
A solid waste, or combination of solid wastes which,
because of its quantity, concentration, physical,
chemical, or infectious characteristics may:
1. Cause, or significantly contribute to, an increase
in mortality or an increase in serious irrever-
sible, or incapacitating reversible, illness; or
2. Pose a substantial present or potential hazard to
human health or the environment when improperly
treated, stored, transported, or disposed of, or
otherwise managed.
Subtitle C requires EPA to issue regulations for the purpose
of monitoring and controlling hazardous wastes from the point of
generation to ultimate disposal. The regulations under RCRA cover
15-2
-------
TABLE 15-1:
MAJOR PROVISIONS OF THE RESOURCE CONSERVATION
AND RECOVERY ACT OF 1976
Subtitle
Description
General
Provisions
Office of
Solid Wastes
Hazardous
Waste
Management
State or
Regional Solid
Waste Plans
Duties of
Secretary of
Commerce
Federal Re-
sponsibilities
Miscellaneous
Research,
Development,
Demonstration,
and Information
Defines objectives: to promote protection of health and
environment; to conserve resources by assisting state and
local governments and interstate agencies in development
of solid waste disposal plans; to require closing or up-
grading of all open dumps; to regulate closely all hazar-
dous waste and provide guidelines for solid waste manage-
ment and resource recovery/conservation systems.
Establishes an Office of Solid Waste in EPA; authorizes
technical and financial assistance to states or regional
agencies in the development of solid and hazardous waste
management programs.
Requires EPA to promulgate criteria for identifying the
characteristics of hazardous waste and an initial list of
hazardous substances. It must also promulgate standards
for generators, transporters, and operators of disposal
facilities of hazardous waste. Regulations concerning
permits and state take-over of hazardous waste programs
are provided for.
Requires EPA to promulgate regulations that contain the
guidelines to be followed in developing state or regional
solid waste management programs. The plans must satisfy
minimum requirements including but not limited to the clos-
ing or upgrading of all open dumps, the disposal of solid
waste in sanitary landfills, and the repeal of state laws
prohibiting local governments from entering long-term con-
tracts for the supply of solid waste to resource recovery
facilities.
To promulgate guidelines for classifying material recovered
from solid wastes, identify the geographic markets for re-
covered material, identify economic and technological bar-
riers to the use of recovered materials, and encourage the
development of new uses for recovered material.
Specifies that federal facilities are to comply in ways
identical to private entities.
Contains citizen suit provisions, whereby any person can
sue any other person (including the United States) alleged
to be in violation of any permit or standard.
Provides guidelines for establishing a research, develop-
ment and demonstration program covering all facets of
solid and hazardous waste management, and resource conser-
vation and recovery.
Source: RCRA, 1976.
15-3
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the three stages in the hazardous waste life cycle: generation;
transportation; and storage, treatment, and disposal. (See Appen-
dix A for a more detailed description.) The regulations (1) speci-
fy means to identify hazardous wastes (Section 3001); (2) describe
detailed procedures to be followed by generators in labeling, stor-
ing, and packaging wastes; (3) require transporters to comply with
manifest and delivery requirements to assure all wastes are deliv-
ered to the designated permitted disposal facility; and (4) set
standards for owners and operators of hazardous waste treatment,
storage, and disposal facilities. EPA is taking a three-phase
approach in developing these regulations. Regulations and guide-
lines as required in the act were proposed between February 1978
and February 1979 (EPA Journal, 1979). In response to comments on
and reviews of these initial regulations, Phase 1 regulations were
issued in May 1980, which took effect November 19, 1980. A second
phase of regulations, to have been added in January 1981, would
have identified additional hazardous wastes and set technical stan-
dards for the issuance of permits. A third phase of regulations
would be to resolve technical issues and set more definitive en-
gineering control standards (Booz Allen Hamilton, and Putnam,
Hayes & Bartlett 1980). Phases two and three have been postponed
by the Reagan administration.
In December 1980, Congress passed the Comprehensive Environ-
mental Response, Liability and Compensation Act, commonly known as
the "superfund," which set up a 1.6 billion dollar fund to pay for
cleaning up old, abandoned, potentially dangerous dump sites (like
Love Canal) and emergencies resulting from chemical spills. This
act recognized that even with RCRA, there was a very limited gov-
ernment capacity to respond to emergencies, since responsible par-
ties often could not be identified and they are often unable to
pay for clean-up. In addition, forcing companies to pay for
spills often involves lengthy judicial procedures (U.S., CEQ,
1979, p. 186). Part of the fund (87.5 percent) will be financed
over the next five years by a tax on oil and specified chemicals,
and the rest will be appropriated.
Another bill, the "Environmental Emergency Response Act" was
introduced in 1979 but was not passed. This bill would have al-
lowed for compensation to individuals who suffered economic or
health damage from exposure to spills or hazardous waste dump
sites. One of the arguments against this bill was that compensa-
tion could legally be required only when a sufficient relationship
is shown between harm and particular activities. An individual
claiming injury must establish that a particular party was negli-
gent in causing the injury. In a pollution related lawsuit, this
would require that exposure to a pollutant emitted by a specific
source caused a specific injury or disease. While the causes of
some diseases are readily identified, there may be several sources
of exposure. Also some environmentally related illnesses are clin-
ically indistinguishable from diseases of nonenvironmental origin
15-4
-------
or from the aging process (National Journal, 1980; U.S., CEQ,
1980, p. 230).
In addition to RCRA and the superfund, there are several other
federal laws which affect hazardous waste management:
• Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act
Tas amended in 1978), which regulates the use of
pesticides and the safe disposal of ones whose re-
gistration is cancelled or suspended.
• Marine Protection, Research, and Sanctuaries Act
Tas amended in 1974),which regulates ocean dumping.
• Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976, which is
essentially a "gap-filling" measure that defers to
the other laws where possible. Generally, this law
authorizes EPA to obtain production and test data
on chemical substances from industry and to regu-
late these substances as necessary.
• Hazardous Materials Transportation Act of 1974,
which authorizes the Department of Transportation
to issue regulations for procedures to be followed
when transporting hazardous materials.
Most states have addressed the hazardous waste problem to some
degree—as of 1978, control ranged from very minimal to comprehen-
sive programs (U.S., EPA, Off. of Solid Waste, 1980, p. 2-18).
The majority of states have exercised their authority over hazar-
dous wastes under their existing solid waste legislation, typical-
ly with broadly worded provisions that do not deal explicitly with
hazardous wastes. Thus, enforcement and management are largely
determined by the individual state regulatory authority. At least
16 states have specific laws dealing with hazardous wastes. Six
of these are in the Sunbelt: Alabama, Louisiana, New Mexico,
Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
As with the Clean Water Act, and the Clean Air Act, RCRA
allows states to take over the permit issuance function if they
have approved programs. Section 3011 of RCRA authorized 25 mil-
lion dollars for fiscal years 1978 and 1979 to assist the states
in developing and implementing authorized hazardous waste pro-
grams . States with hazardous waste management programs already in
effect may apply to EPA for interim authorization, for up to 2
years, to administer the permit program under their existing laws
(Duvel and Gaines, 1979, p. 73.) In Region 4, each state except
Florida is pursuing, and is likely to receive, interim authoriza-
tion (U.S., EPA, Region 4, 1980).
15-5
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15.2.2 Hazardous Waste Generation and Accidents
A. Generation
It has been estimated that the Sunbelt contains approximately
200,000 individual generators, 2,400 transporters, and 7,200 known
disposal sites of hazardous wastes (Boatright, 1980). Region 6
produces about 25 percent of the total U.S, output of hazardous
waste and includes 10 percent of the generators. Region 4 pro-
duces about 16 percent and includes about 15 percent of the gener-
ators. In total, the Sunbelt produces about 41 percent of the
nation's hazardous waste and has about 25 percent of the genera-
tors. Only Region 5, which has 23 percent of the wastes and 21
percent of the generators, is comparable to regions 4 and 6.
The primary reason for such large volumes of hazardous waste
production in the Sunbelt is that the industries which are respon-
sible for generating most of the waste nationally are among the
top industries in the South. Primary metals, organic and inorgan-
ic chemicals and electroplating account for 83 percent of indus-
trial wastes nationally. The importance of these industries to
the South is described in detail in Chapter 4 (Industrial Trends)
and Chapter 7 (Chemicals) and summarized briefly in section 15.3.1
below.
Tables 15-2 and 15-3 present data on hazardous waste genera-
tion by region and industrial source. The data in Table 15-2 are
estimates for 1975 from EPA's Office of Solid Waste. In Table
15-3, 1980 data are presented from a study by Booz Allen Hamilton
and Putnam, Hayes & Bartlett. The EPA data show that 47.5 million
tons of hazardous wastes are produced nationally. Of this, the
Sunbelt accounts for 27 percent—17 percent in Region 4, and 10
percent in Region 6. In contrast, the data in Table 15-3 show
that of the 41 million tons total in 1980, over 50 percent came
from the Sunbelt—almost equally divided between the two regions.
Both sources agree that chemicals and allied products (SIC 28)
account for the large volume of hazardous wastes nationally, and
particularly in the study area. In Table 15-2, these products
account for 60 percent nationally, 72 percent in Region 4, and 68
percent in Region 6. In comparison, Table 15-3 shows chemicals
and allied products contributing 62 percent nationally, 85 percent
in Region 4, and 81 percent in Region 6. A second significant
source in Region 6 is petroleum and coal products (SIC 29) which
accounts for 8 percent of the total in Region 6.
One problem in estimating quantities of hazardous wastes is in
defining what constitutes a hazardous waste. In the report from
which Table 15-3 is derived, three subcategories of hazardous
wastes are identified:
15-6
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TABLE 15-2: SUMMARY OF HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATED BY FEDERAL REGION, 1975a
(thousands of metric tons per year)
Industry (SIC)
Food & Kindred
Products (20)
Textile Mill
Products (22)
Apparel & Other Tex-
tlle Products (23)
Lumber & Wood
Products (24)
Furniture &
Fixtures (25)
Paper & Al 1 led
Products (26)
Printing &
Publishing (27)
Chemicals & Al 1 led
Products (28) 1,
Petroleum & Coal
Products (29)
Rubber & Misc.
Plastic
Products (30)
1
10.0
10.0
7.0
4.0
9.5
290.0
9.0
060.0
25.0
20.0
2
25.0
10.0
30.0
3.0
20.0
350.0
20.0
5,290.0
95.0
25.0
3
30.0
15.0
20.0
7.0
25.0
290.0
15.0
3,600.0
85.0
20.0
Federal Region
456
45.0 70.0 30.0
100.0 3.5 2.5
40.0 10.0 10.0
20.0 10.0 8.0
75.0 50.0 15.0
530.0 760.0 200.0
15.0 30.0 8.0
5,920.0 5,770.0 3,270.0
50.0 160.0 330.0
35.0 75.0 15.0
789
25.0 9.0 35.0
0.5 <0.5 2.0
4.0 1.0 10.0
2.5 2.0 8.5
7.5 1.5 25.0
120.0 10.0 180.0
8.5 3.0 10.0
1,230.0 170.0 1,880.0
45.0 30.0 110.0
10.0 2.0 20.0
10
15.0
0.5
10.0
20.0
2.5
130.0
2.5
460.0
20.0
2.0
Total
290
140
130
80
240
2,870
130
28,700
950
220
Percent
of
Total
0.5
0.5
0.5
<0.5
0.5
6.0
0.5
60.0
2.0
0.5
Ranking
10
15
16
18
12
4
17
1
7
13
(continued)
-------
TABLE 15-2: (Continued)
h- *
(Jl
1
00
Industry (SIC) 1234
Leather i, Leather
Products (31) 130.0 95.0 70.0 90.0
Stone, Clay,
& Glass
Products (32) 65.0 160.0 210.0 230.0
Primary Metal
Industries (33) 140.0 290.0 870.0 350.0
Fabricated Metal
Products (34) 140.0 170.0 180.0 180.0
Mach 1 ner y , Except
Electrical (35) 370.0 450.0 400.0 420.0
Electrical 4
E 1 ectron I c
Equipment (36) 20.0 30.0 20.0 25.0
Transportation
Equipment (37) 65.0 55.0 60.0 80.0
1 nstruments &
Re 1 ated
Products (38) 10.0 15.0 5.5 4.0
Mi seel laneous
Manufacturing
Industries (39) 40.0 55.0 20.0 35.0
Total5 2,440.0 7,190.0 5,940.0 8,240.0
Percent of
Total 5 15 13 17
Federa 1
5
120.0
350.0
1,520.0
700.0
1,830.0
55.0
350.0
15.0
60.0
11,900.0
25
Region
6
35.0
120.0
190.0
150.0
350.0
10.0
60.0
2.0
15.0
4,810.0
10
Percent
"f
7 8 9 10 Total Total
85.0 8.5 10.0 1.5 640 1.5
60.0 35.0 130.0 30.0 1,390 3.0
110.0 75.0 200.0 95.0 3,830 8.0
85.0 20.0 160.0 25.0 1,800 4.0
290.0 80.0 400.0 60.0 4,650 10.0
9.0 1.5 25.0 1.0 200 0.5
60.0 10.0 150.0 45.0 940 2.0
2.0 1.5 8.0 1.5 65 <0.5
10.0 6.0 20.0 5.0 270 0.5
2,170.0 470.0 3,380.0 920.0 47,500
51 72
Ranking
9
6
3
5
2
14
8
19
11
Source: U.S., EPA, Off. of Solid Waste, 1980.
aThese numbers are estimated based upon the generation factors as derived In Appendix B.
bTotals may not balance due to rounding of numbers.
-------
TABLE 15-3:
1980 INDUSTRIAL HAZARDOUS WASTE GENERATION
BY INDUSTRY, BY FEDERAL REGION
(thousands of wet metric tons)
Federal Region
Industry (SIC) Total
Textile Mill Products (22)
Lumber & Wood Products (24)
Furniture & Fixtures (25)
Paper & Al 1 led
Products (26) 1,
Printing &
Publishing (27)
Chemicals & Al 1 led
Products (28) 25,
Industrial Inorganic
Chemicals 8,
Plastics Materials,
Synthetics
Drugs
Other Chemicals 3,
Paints and
Allied Products
Industrial Organic
Chems. and Agrlc.
Chems., N.E.C. 13,
Exp 1 os ( ves
Petroleum & Coal
Products (29) 2,
Petroleum Refining 1,
Petroleum Re-ref Inlng
Rubber and Misc.
Plastics (30)
Leather & Leather
Tanning (31)
Stone, Clay, i
Glass Production (32)
Primary Metal
Industries (33) 4,
Ferrous Metals 2,
Non ferrous Metals 1,
203
87
36
295
154
509
072
769
106
364
125
066
7
119
901
218
249
474
17
061
330
731
1
27
4
2
130
11
185
0
31
4
138
3
9
0
0
0
0
22
156
1
2
0
2
2
24
3
4
272
25
1,497
13
108
54
614
19
689
0
122
76
46
28
57
2
185
117
68
3
4
7
4
130
19
2,515
510
92
11
430
11
1,459
2
165
152
13
22
24
1
791
652
139
4
132
20
9
156
19
8,763
5,723
192
8
688
20
2,130
2
90
57
33
39
14
3
434
163
271
5
10
10
7
324
38
1,870
646
131
22
699
37
333
2
384
323
61
83
137
4
1,348
1,118
230
6
6
8
2
77
10
8,577
64
131
0
360
8
8,014
0
878
836
42
17
0
2
452
47
405
7
0
3
2
52
11
553
323
8
2
131
8
81
0
99
95
4
11
38
1
74
0
74
8
0
2
0
13
4
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
61
57
4
2
5
1
109
70
39
9
0
9
5
117
13
1,426
794
38
4
239
17
333
1
258
247
11
22
38
2
101
47
54
10
0
21
1
25
3
123
0
38
0
66
1
18
0
61
57
4
2
5
1
65
16
49
(continued)
15-9
-------
TABLE 15-3: (continued)
Federal Region
Industry (SIC) Total 123 45 6789 10
Fabricated
Metal
Products (34) 1,997 204 212 172 172 781 137 96 28 164 31
Machinery,
Except
Electrical
(35) 322 26 31 28 29 127 24 20 6 28 4
Electric &
Electronic
Equip. (36) 1,093 67 156 183 82 334 65 28 5 145 27
Electric,
EIectronIc
Equipment 609 62 93 62 77 170 31 28 5 77 3
Batteries 484 5 63 121 5 164 34 00 68 24
Transportation
Equipment
(37) 1,240 86 73 80 106 464 80 80 13 199 60
Instruments 4
Re Iated
Products (38) 90 14 21 8 6 21 3 32 11 1
Miscellaneous
Manufac-
turing
Industries
(39) 318 48 66 24 42 72 18 12 7 24 6
Nonmanufac-
turlng
Industries 1,971 119 335 177 237 414 177 118 59 276 59
TOTAL 41,235 1,104 3,113 4,354 10,353 6,428 10,536 1,201 318 2,838 995
Source: Booz Allen Hamilton and Putnam, Hayes, i Bartlett, 1980«
15-10
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(1) Wastes listed on the EPA Waste List published in
May 1980 in Part 261 of the RCRA regulations, and
wastes that EPA intends to list (8.3 million tons
per year nationally);
(2) Wastes identified as hazardous by RCRA characteris-
tics, but not included on the EPA Hazardous Waste
List (20.9 million tons per year nationally); and
(3) Wastes not identified specifically enough (either
by type or quantity) to determine their waste cate-
gory (12 million tons per year nationally).
If such broad definitions are used, a much different picture
emerges (over 41 million tons produced annually) than if narrow
definitions are used. Thus, an important element in future regu-
lation of hazardous wastes will be the development of standard
definitions.
It is also important to recognize the differences in the ori-
gins and limitations of the data presented in Tables 15-2 and
15-3. The data in Table 15-2 are based on information from five
state survey reports, a survey of EPA Region 10, a list of haz-
ardous waste disposal permits from Illinois, a computerized indus-
trial waste inventory from Maryland, and unpublished data from
state files in Texas. Using these sources, generation factors
(tons of waste per employee) were developed for each 2-digit SIC
code. The factors were then applied to the employment level data
for each 2-digit SIC category for each region. Many sources of
error exist in such procedures, including:
• Comparability of the data sources (e.g., defini-
tions of "hazardous" as discussed above);
• Possible biases in the coverage of industries (the
eight studies covered 14 percent of total U.S.
employment in those SIC categories);
• Inaccuracies introduced by the use of 2-digit
codes rather than more specific groups at the 3 or
4-digit levels; and
• Potential errors by assuming waste per employee is
constant throughout specific industries and inde-
pendent of geographic region or industry size and
technologies used.
For example, leather and leather products (SIC 31) consists of
11 subclasses (four-digit codes) but only one, tanning and finish-
ing (SIC 3111), would be expected to produce large quantities of
hazardous wastes. However, the leather tanning industry is not
broken out separately in the U.S. Census publications. For
15-11
-------
chemicals and allied products, the factors calculated for Texas
and Mississippi were 65 and 129 metric tons per employee, respec-
tively, while for other states the figures ranged from 0.9 to 35.3
metric tons per employee. EPA concluded that these differences
might be partially attributed to the concentration of chemical
industry subgroups which produce large volumes of hazardous wastes
in the southcentral states (U.S., EPA, Off. of Solid Waste, 1980,
p. H-21).
Due to such limitations, these generation factors are most
useful when applied to estimating hazardous waste totals for large
areas. Table 15-4 presents hazardous waste totals for selected
states by 2-digit SIC code (includes our study area except for New
Mexico, but also includes Virginia and West Virginia). As indi-
cated, the biggest generator is Texas, with Tennessee in second
place, followed by North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, and
Florida, each of which produced about the same volume of waste.
In every state, chemicals and allied products are the largest
source of hazardous waste.
B. Accidents
Hazards resulting from the unsafe dumping of toxic wastes are
numerous. The Final Environmental Impact Statement for RCRA
describes 300 accidents which have resulted from bad management of
hazardous waste. Of these:
• 125 led to underground water pollution, in some cases
affecting hundreds of wells;
• 90 led to surface water pollution (creeks, lakes,
streams, and rivers). In 15 of these cases large
populations of fish were killed;
• 35 involved land pollution, necessitating removal and
disposal of substantial quantities of soil;
• 13 led to air pollution and to adverse health effects
to people living in neighboring areas;
• 30 caused serious illnesses; and
• 17 resulted in fires.
This evidence suggests that perhaps the most serious danger from
the unsafe disposal of hazardous waste is the contamination of
ground and surface waters. About 20 percent of these accidents
described in the RCRA Environmental Impact Statement have occurred
in the Sunbelt states.
15-12
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TABLE 15-4: HAZARDOUS WASTES GENERATED BY INDUSTRIES GROUPED
BY STANDARD INDUSTRIAL CLASSIFICATION BY STATE
(thousands of metric tons per year)
Industry (SIC)
Food & Kindred
Products (20)
Textile Mill Products (22)
Apparel 4 Other Textile
Products (23)
Lumber 4 Wood
Products (24)
Furniture & Fixtures (25)
Paper 4 Al 1 led
Products (26)
Printing 4 Publishing (27)
Chemicals 4 Al 1 led
Products (28)
Petroleum & Coal
Products (29)
Rubber 4 Misc. Plastics
Products (30)
Leather 4 Leather
Products (31)
Stone, Clay & Glass
Products (32)
Primary Metal
Products (33)
Fabricated Metal
Products (34)
Machinery, except
Electrical (35)
Electric 4 Electronic
Equipment (36)
Transportation
Equipment (37)
Instruments 4 Related
Products (38)
AL
3.5
19.8
5.5
22.8
0.3
22.6
0.7
401.2
4.4
2.1
2.7
37.1
61.6
37.5
2.9
1.8
6.4
0.1
AR
3.5
1.8
1.6
20.7
0.7
11.4
0.6
189.2
14.7
1.0
3.3
19.8
8.1
22.6
2.1
2.6
1.7
0.2a
FL
6.6
2.2
3.4
15.0
0.6
18.8
2.7
859.1
4.4
1.6
1.4
60.6
4.6
38.7
4.5
5.4
10.3
0.3
GA
6.6
47.4
7.6
28.2
0.5
30.5
1.4
526.1
7.4
2.0
1.2
67.2
16.2
27.9
3.4
2.1
8.9
0.2a
KY
3.1
3.0
2.9
12.4
0.3
8.9
1.2
533. 6a
7.9
0.9
1.9
33.0
25.2
30.6
9.2
4.3
4.4
0.2
LA
4.2
8.8
1.0
16.8
0.1
17.6
0.6
1,021.8
48.6
0.0
0.1a
29.7
10.1
21.1
2.4
1.2
7.7
<0.1
MS
2.5
3.4
4.1
22.5
0.9
7.2
0.4
211.9
6.4
0.8
0.8
31.7
3.4
12.0
2.3
2.4
10.0
0.1
NC
5.6
116.2
7.8
32.5
4.8
6.2
1.6
1,177.0
3.9
2.6
1.4
63.9
9.6
32.3
7.7
5.2
3.1
2.4
OK
2.2
0.8
1.3
3.6
0.1
2.2
1.0
83. 3a
23.1
1.2
0.4
29.3
7.2
25.7
6.2
1.7
3.4
0.5a
Misc. Manufacturing
Industries (39) 0.9 2.4a 2.1 6.2 1.2 0.3 1.1 1.9 1.0a
Total 633.9 308.0 1,042.3 791.0 684.2 1,192.2 323.9 1,485.7 194.2
(continued)
15-13
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TABLE 15-4: (continued)
Industry (SIC)
Food 4 Kindred Products (20)
Textile Mill Products (22)
Apparel 4 other Textile
Products (23)
Lumber & Wood Products (24)
Furniture & Fixtures (25)
Paper & Allied Products (26)
Printing & Publishing (27)
Chemicals & Al 1 led
Products (28) 1,
Petroleum & Coal
Products (29)
Rubber and Misc. Plastics
Products (30)
Leather 4 Leather
Products (31)
Stone Clay 4 Glass
Products (32)
Primary Metal
Products (33)
Fabricated Metal
Products (34)
Machinery, except
Electrical (35)
Electric 4 Electronic
Equipment (36)
Transportation
Equipment (37)
Instruments 4 Related
Products (38)
Misc. Manufacturing
Industries (39)
Tota 1 1 ,
SC
1.7
62.7
4.8
14.6
0.3
15.4
0.5
033.2
1.5a
1.5a
0.1
40.4
6.9
13.4
5.1
2.4
1.5
1.3
1.5
208.8
TN
5.1
12.5
7.2
15.1
1.6
19.2
2.3
1,097.4
3.9
2.4
7.0
68.0
24.9
46.3
6.2
4.7
6.6
1.0
3.8
1,335.2
TX
11.1
2.5
7.7
29.8
1.1
21.6
4.3
2,320.0
169.5
3.0
1.2
124.9
56.4
110.7
23.7
7.8
21.5
3.5
2.8
2,923.1
VA
4.9
18.5
3.9
22.3
1.7
15.1
1.6
1,195.9
2.0a
1.6
1.2
38.7
12.7
23.9
3.8
4.5
5.1
1.0a
1.0
1,359.4
WV
0.2
0.4
0.5
5.5
0.1
2.1
0.4
715.3
4.9
0.3
0.5
75.0
35.4
11.6
1.6
0.8
1.0
0.3
0.4
856.3
SOUTH
60.8
300.0
59.3
261.8
13.1
198.8
19.3
11,365.0
302.6
21.0
23.2
719.3
282.3
454.3
81.1
46.9
91.6
11.2
26.6
14,338.2
U.S. %
224.2
403.2
138.3
691.3
29.6
751.3
106.5
32,157.8
742.1
94.2
103.3
2,445.0
1,674.0
2,391.0
461.4
241.3
551.8
96.7
139.2
43,442.2
of U.S.
27
74
43
38
38
26
18
38
40.8
22
22
29
17
19
18
19
17
12
19
35
Source: Copenhaver, Olsen, and Rice, 1978, pp. 374-75.
aDerived using the upper range of employees for firms for 1972, U.S. Dept. of Commerce 1976.
15-14
-------
15.3 FUTURE TRENDS AND ISSUES
Concerns about hazardous wastes are likely to increase as the
Sunbelt continues to experience growth and change. The following
section discusses the most significant of these concerns. First,
growth projections for key driving forces are summarized. This is
followed by a characterization of five issues: managing hazardous
wastes, waste disposal capacity, cleaning up old dump sites, sit-
ing hazardous waste facilities, and transport of hazardous
materials.
15.3.1 Key Driving Forces
Table 15-4 has identified hazardous wastes generated by vari-
ous industries in the Sunbelt. Based on these data, six indus-
tries are key driving forces for hazardous waste generation in the
Sunbelt. Ranked in order of percentage of hazardous wastes pro-
duced in the South, these industries are: (1) chemicals and al-
lied products (79 percent); (2) stone, clay and glass products (5
percent); (3) fabricated metals (3 percent); (4) petroleum and
coal products (2 percent); (5) textile mill products (2 percent);
and (6) primary metal production (2 percent). These six indus-
tries account for 94 percent of the total wastes generated in the
14 states shown in Table 15-4. Chemicals and allied products is
by far the most significant—this industry is the major hazardous
waste generator in every state. The other five generators are
localized to a few states. Texas (fabricated metals, petroleum
products, and primary metals), North Carolina (stone, clay and
glass, and textiles), and Tennessee (stone, clay and glass, and
fabricated metals) are subject to several sources which produce
relatively large volumes of hazardous wastes.
Table 15-5 indicates growth projections for these six driving
forces. Each industry is projected to undergo substantial growth
through the year 2010—all but textiles are projected to have at
least a 200 percent increase in earnings between 1978 and 2010.
The largest rates of growth are projected for petroleum and coal
products, fabricated metal, and stone, clay and glass. In terms
of absolute earnings, textiles, chemicals, and fabricated metal
will continue to be the most important of these six industries.
15.3.2 Managing Hazardous Wastes
Future growth in these industries will increase concerns
about the management of hazardous wastes. At a general level,
these concerns include implementation of RCRA and developing
comprehensive systems for controlling the generation, transpor-
tation, and disposal of wastes.
15-15
-------
TABLE 15-5: GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR MAJOR HAZARDOUS WASTE
GENERATORS
Industry
Projected Growth
(earnings—millions of dollars )a
% Change
1978 2000 2010 1978-2010
Chemicals and
Allied Products
Stone, Clay and
Glass Products
Fabricated Metal
Petroleum and
Coal Products
Textile Mill
Products
Primary Metal
2,509 5,816 7,738
766 2,941 4,015
1,764 4,811 6,593
124
412
571
4,391 7,222 8,962
1,590 3,804 5,095
+208
+254
+273
+360
+104
+220
Calculated from U.S., Dept. of Commerce, BEA, 1980. These
data are taken from Tables 4-3 and 4-4, Chapter 4, of this
report. Figures are millions of 1972 dollars.
RCRA regulations are estimated to involve about 275,000 gener-
ators of hazardous wastes and to require about 30,000 permits for
treatment, storage, and disposal. Estimates of the cost of comply-
ing with these regulations vary widely. EPA estimated the cost of
compliance for 17 industries most affected by RCRA to be about 750
million dollars per year. This is about five times as much as is
spent by these industries today in hazardous waste management
(about 155 million dollars). EPA noted that this would be about
0.28 percent of the annual value of production (267 billion dol-
lars) (EPA Journal, 1979). In contrast, the Chemical Manufactur-
ers Association reported that of 475 industry surface impoundments
that were surveyed, only one met RCRA criteria, and that bringing
these impoundments into compliance would cost 900 million dollars
(Murray, 1979). The financial burden of complying with RCRA will
undoubtedly be much heavier for small companies producing small
volumes of toxic waste.
15-16
-------
Compliance costs are just one of the factors which will make
implementation of RCRA difficult. Other factors include uncer-
tainties about definitions of what is hazardous and which situa-
tions will require judicial interpretations, and the difficulty
in finding sites for hazardous waste disposal facilities. The
development of more comprehensive management systems and a haz-
ardous waste disposal industry closely monitored by state and
local authorities will make implementation easier.
As suggested in Figure 15-1, a hazardous waste management
system would have several components.
A. Waste Generation
The sources of waste have been described earlier. With re-
spect to industrial waste it may originate either from the useless
part of raw materials or as a by-product of processing. Wastes
can be managed either on-site or off-site. There are several
routes for managing waste indicated in Figure 15-1.
B. Waste Exchange, Recycling and Reuse
Environmental legislation increases the cost of waste disposal
to the extent that it becomes in many cases less costly for an in-
dustry to purify and reuse waste rather than to discard it. For
those cases where the waste of an industry is a useful material
for another, "waste exchanges" have been established. About 10
percent of the materials listed with waste exchanges change hands
in the U.S. as compared to 30 to 40 percent in some European coun-
terparts. Thus, there is potential for further development of
this practice. The recycling of solvents, a 200 million dollar
business, is expected to become a billion dollar business by 1986
(Senkan and Stauffer, 1981, p. 39).
C. Treatment
Most waste is treated before final disposal, and hazardous
waste is required by RCRA to be treated. The wide variety of
methods for treatment fall into four main categories:
• Incineration and pyrolysis. Applied to almost all
organic waste not contaminated with heavy metals or
chlorine. When carried out on specially designed
ships or platforms in the high seas, chlorinated or-
ganic waste can also be treated in this way.
• Biological methods. Used for organic and some inor-
ganic toxic waste. Aerobic or anaerobic microorgan-
isms decompose the waste in activated sludge systems,
15-17
-------
Waste exchange
Transportation
off-site
Generation
CD
Treatment:
-Reduce
toxicity
-Recover
materials
-Concentrate
wastes
-Incineration
4-
Nonhazardous
wastes
Disposal:
-Landfilling
-Lagooning
-Storage
-Deep well
injection
Direct disposal
Figure 15-1: Hazardous Waste Management System
-------
aerated lagoons, anaerobic digestion systems and corn-
posters .
• Adsorption. Removes organic and some inorganic waste
from aqueous streams, activated carbon and resins
being the media most widely used.
• Solidification, Encapsulation. Deactivates and immo-
bilizes toxic chemicals by incorporating them into the
structure of a stable solid compound like cement,
glass, or polymers.
Whether the waste receives treatment or not, the final step is
disposal of the residue or of the waste. This may take place in
landfills, lagoons, storage or deep well injection.
15.3.3 Waste Management Capacity
A recent EPA study (prepared by Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc., and
Putnam, Hayes & Bartlett, Inc.) compared offsite waste treatment
and disposal capacity demand in 1981 and concluded that regions 4
and 6 are better off than other regions. According to this re-
port, regions 4 and 6 have an estimated surplus capacity of 0.21
million and 6.6 million wet metric tons per year, respectively.
This compares with a deficit of 0.5 million wet metric tons for
Region 5 which is the worst off among the 10 regions.
However, these findings should be considered in the light of
the impact of the implementation of the RCRA. The technical
design and performance standards for hazardous waste treatment
facilities, the financial requirements for post closure mainten-
ance practices and the enforcement of proper disposal operations
will affect existing facilities. Some of them may also be unable
to meet the CWA (1977), CAA (1977), and Safe Drinking Water Act
(1974) standards.
Some current practices in disposing of industrial waste may
have to be altered, as has happened with the practice of dumping
waste in the Gulf of Mexico which was discontinued in 1974. For
example, deep well injection of waste will have to be monitored
with respect to ground water contamination.
Furthermore, the projected growth of the chemical industry in
the Sunbelt (see Chapter 7), the concentration of petrochemical
manufactures in the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast and inorganic chem-
ical manufactures in Kentucky, Tennessee, and Florida may lead to
bottlenecks in the management of hazardous waste unless preventive
measures are taken in time.
Another matter of concern is the small number of commercial
facilities (off-site) compared to the on-site facilities. In
15-19
-------
Region 4 there are 14 commercial and 2,557 on-site facilities. In
Region 6 there are 21 and 1,832 respectively. The implementation
of RCRA may substantially reduce the number of on-site facilities
before commercial capacity is increased to balance the demand.
15.3.4 Cleaning Up Old Dump Sites
Although there is a wide range of estimates of the exact num-
ber and their degree of risk, a large number of old hazardous
waste dump sites still exist. Some of these are known to have
caused or may cause adverse human health effects. As of mid-1979,
EPA had identified 151 sites in the United States that pose a po-
tential threat to human health or the environment due to the pres-
ence of hazardous wastes (U.S., EPA, ORD, 1980a, p. 520). This
list of sites is under continuous review and new sites are being
added to the list. One estimate prepared for EPA indicates that
as many as 32,000 active or abandoned dump sites may contain haz-
ardous wastes, with more than 800 containing significant quanti-
ties of such wastes. Use of an alternative method based on the
quantity of hazardous waste generated annually resulted in an
estimate of more than 50,000 active and inactive hazardous waste
sites (Fred C. Hart Associates, 1979). It was estimated by one
study that it would cost 28 to 55 billion dollars to clean up all
the inactive dumps (Fred C. Hart Associates, 1979). Although such
estimates are preliminary, they do illustrate the magnitude of the
problem.
As of April 1980, EPA had identified 971 hazardous waste dis-
posal sites in Region 6 that could potentially threaten human
health and the environment. About 50 percent of these are located
in Texas (491), with the remainder located in Louisiana (183),
Arkansas (161), Oklahoma (74) and New Mexico (64). Other sites
probably exist which have not yet been identified (U.S., EPA, ORD,
1980b, p. 27). This situation is an important example of a latent
environmental problem. Even if all hazardous waste generation
were stopped immediately, there might continue to be a danger of
ground water contamination in the future from wastes which have
been disposed of improperly. Furthermore, once ground water is
polluted it is very difficult, if not impossible, to cleanse (see,
for example, Seller and Canter, 1980).
15.3.5 Siting of Hazardous Waste Facilities
The current number of hazardous waste facilities as indicated
by the applications to the EPA for interim status is as follows:
15-20
-------
State
AL
FL
GA
MS
NC
SC
TN
KY
Total
Region 4
On-Site Off-Site
260
690
332
157
408
204
278
228
2,557
1
0
1
0
2
3
5
_2
14
State
AR
LA
NM
OK
TX
Total
Region 6
On-Site
113
220
43
110
699
1,832
Off-Site
1
5
0
3
12
21
However gradual, implementation of RCRA will change the structure
of the hazardous waste management industry. This will be for both
economic reasons (small industrial firms being unable to upgrade
their on-site facilities to RCRA standards) and social reasons
(local populations objecting to hazardous waste facilities in
their neighborhood).
With respect to existing facilities, many small on-site facil-
ities may have to close down if they cannot meet RCRA standards.
Some moderately-sized firms with on-site facilities may prefer to
discontinue their operation. This may be to improve their rela-
tions with surrounding communities rather than for lack of the
necessary capital for upgrading their facility. According to the
RCRA, hazardous waste management facilities will be required to
undergo public hearings before the issuance of a final permit.
On-site facilities currently operated by generators are not ex-
cluded, hence they may choose to dispose of their waste off-site
instead of being subjected to possible legal actions or a negative
public image (Yang, n.d.). Implementation of RCRA could lead to
three kinds of developments:
(1) Large generators of hazardous waste will upgrade
their current on-site facilities to comply with
RCRA regulations and avoid paying the extra costs
of transport and fees of the hazardous waste man-
agement industry. They will also work toward using
raw materials and processes which generate less
hazardous waste.
(2) Small generators of hazardous waste will close down
their on-site facilities which do not meet RCRA
standards, or those which may lead to costly court
action against objecting communities. They will
turn to the hazardous waste management industry for
transport and disposal of the waste.
15-21
-------
(3) The hazardous waste mangement industry will estab-
lish large hazardous waste management facilities to
accommodate the demand for its services. For the
identification and use of the necessary new sites
a close cooperation between state and local author-
ities and the industry should be developed.
Intense public opposition has blocked siting of new hazardous
waste management facilities, forestalled expansion of existing
facilities, and, in several instances, caused operating facilities
to be closed. A study on the capacity of the hazardous waste man-
agement industry concluded that public opposition was the most
critical factor affecting future capacity (Booz Allen Hamilton,
and Putnam, Hayes & Bartlett, 1980, p. VI-1).
Permit issuance legislation differs among states, hence the
problems that state and local authorities and industry will meet
will not be the same across the Sunbelt. Existing legislation
falls into three main groups:
(1) Local Authorities have the final say in all facets
of the siting procedure. The effect of complete
local authority upon the supply of hazardous waste
management facilities is often negative since the
states cannot overrule any strong public opposition
and action. Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas,
Oklahoma and New Mexico belong to this class of
states.
(2) State Legislatures have some degree of preemptive
authority over local government in overriding local
laws and regulations restricting the siting of hazard-
ous waste management facilities. The degree of that
authority varies from complete state control over all
decisions of local authorities (North Carolina), to
limited preemptive control in special instances.
Thus, in Florida the state's Department of Natural
Resources and the Regional Planning Council may
approve deviations from local zoning for the siting
of a hazardous waste management facility if it ful-
fills specific environmental, economic and technical
criteria. Georgia's Department of Natural Resources
has preemptive authority over all local decisions,
with the exception of local zoning ordinances.
Mississippi's Department of Health is granted pre-
emptive authority over a local ordinance if the pro-
posed site is within an industrial zone. Texas has
a preemptive authority similar to Mississippi's.
In general, this kind of limited preemptive author-
ity facilitates the siting of hazardous waste manage-
ment facilities because it allows for the
15-22
-------
consideration of both local and regional interests
and of social/ economic, and environmental factors.
(3) State Boards offer a third option for siting hazard-
ous waste management facilities. The preemptive
rights of state governments over local authorities
have come into question by the public and, in some
cases, the dispute has been taken to the courts.
Establishing state boards for siting hazardous waste
management facilities is an intermediate solution
which seems to offer some advantages in reducing
polarization between state and local authorities.
Tennessee established such a board, consisting of
persons with technical expertise in agriculture, geo-
logy, and engineering; representatives from generat-
ing industries and environmental and local interest
groups; and ex officio members from the departments
of Public Health, State Planning, and Economic and
Community Development. The board mandate includes
the development of a hazardous waste management plan
for the state. Its permitting authority is limited
to off-site facilities.
Siting boards have a positive impact on the supply
of facilities because they provide a mechanism for
local input into the siting process. Georgia and
Alabama have considered establishing similar boards.
Apart from choosing a mechanism for siting hazardous waste
management facilities, information on hazardous waste management
for federal, regional, and local authorities, industry, and the
public at large is an important issue. Unfortunately, much of the
coverage by the media of hazardous waste disposal and transport
incidents confuses, rather than clarifies the issues. There is a
need for disseminating factual information to the public to help
them identify the risks and the policies that should be employed
to deal with them.
15.3.6 Transport of Hazardous Materials and Wastes
Transporting hazardous wastes to off-site disposal areas in-
creases substantially the potential for inadvertant releases of
the wastes into the environment through accidents or emergencies
such as shocks, fires, punctures, crushing and immersion. Since
transporters use trains, trucks, and barges to ship hazardous
wastes over varied routes, a wide range of potential effects from
inadvertent releases of the wastes exists. The extent of damage
will depend on such factors as the characteristics of the wastes
(e.g., compressed gases, solids, etc.), the quantities released,
the media of dispersion (e.g., air, water, land), and the prox-
imity to population centers.
15-23
-------
Under the Hazardous Materials Transportation Act of 1974, the
U.S. Department of Transportation is responsible for issuing regu-
lations on procedures for transporting hazardous materials. How-
ever, a review of 29 major railroad and highway accident reports
(22 prepared by the National Transportation Safety Board and 7 by
EPA) from 1968 to 1980 revealed that little attention was given
either to immediate impacts on air, water, or land pollution or to
protective measures to preclude long-term contamination (Canter,
1980). Seventeen of the 29 reports dealt with accidents that oc-
curred in Regions 4 and 6.
Under Section 3003 of RCRA, EPA has responsibility for estab-
lishing criteria and standards for hazardous waste transporters.
Yet, identifying these transporters and monitoring their pickups,
routes, distances, and disposals is a major undertaking and one
which is still not complete. One source estimates that the study
area has as many as 2,400 individual transporters. A key policy
issue will be how to establish standards for transporters without
becoming so restrictive as to force them out of business.
The implementation of EPA's manifest system will help to se-
cure the off-site safe disposal of hazardous waste. The manifest
is a shipping document indicating the origin, destination, type,
and volume of waste and contains certification from each party
that the waste is properly packaged and characterized. All wastes
in transit from the generator to a hazardous waste management fa-
cility must be accompanied by a manifest, and the hazardous waste
management facility must return a signed copy to the generator
showing that the material has been received. EPA requires notifi-
cation by the generator only if he has not received the signed
copy of the manifest within 45 days from the shipment.
Although federal agencies have the major responsibility for
transport regulations, state and local governments also have a
stake in the issue of hazardous waste transport because of their
involvement in maintaining highways and roads, supplying and train-
ing emergency personnel, etc.
The trend toward more off-site disposal of hazardous waste as
a result of the enforcement of the RCRA coupled with the projected
growth of the chemical, energy, and other manufacturing industries
in the South, will lead to substantial increases in the volume of
hazardous waste transported and hence to the risk and occurrence
of accidents.
Cooperation of state and local authorities and industry will
be needed to establish hazardous waste management facility net-
works . Such networks need to consider the necessary capacity
needed to allow for safe disposal and for the growth of the indus-
try. In addition, tradeoffs between on-site and off-site disposal
need to be considered and networks which allow hazardous wastes to
15-24
-------
be moved with the least possible probability of accidents need to
be established.
15.4 SUMMARY
Table 15-6 summarizes the five principal concerns with haz-
ardous wastes in the Sunbelt. The primary causes of these con-
cerns are growth in several manufacturing industries throughout
the Sunbelt. Chemicals, stone, clay and glass, fabricated metals,
petroleum and coal products, textiles, and primary metal produc-
tion, generate 94 percent of the hazardous wastes produced in the
Sunbelt. Each of these industries is projected to grow substan-
tially over the next three decades. Of these, the chemical
industry is by far the greatest concern—it is the largest genera-
tor in every state in our study area. States facing the largest
amounts of wastes are Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina, and
Tennessee.
Hazardous waste management will become a critical environmen-
tal concern for many state and local governments. The lack of
federal legislation to regulate hazardous waste management before
1976 led to substandard hazardous waste management facilities or
to disposal practices which will have to be replaced. This co-
incidence of growth of waste output and the reduction and replace-
ment of available facilities will put pressure on state and local
authorities and industry to develop systems of hazardous waste
management which will allow for the growth of industry but which
will not jeopardize public health.
In Texas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and Kentucky a shortage of
hazardous waste disposal capacity may occur in the next ten years,
particularly if deep well injection of hazardous waste is cur-
tailed. The pressure on the authorities to relax enforcement of
RCRA and TSCA could be offset by increasing public reaction to the
dangers associated with accidents involving toxic wastes.
One key to solving these problems will be to develop a well-
regulated hazardous waste management industry which will cooperate
closely with state and local authorities. Policies such as finan-
cial incentives for the hazardous waste management industry, iden-
tification and development of hazardous waste management facility
sites, and adoption of safe working practices call for such coop-
eration. The federal government and Congress have provided the
necessary framework by passing RCRA and TSCA. However, several
problems with implementing these laws still must be addressed.
15-25
-------
TABLE 15-6: PROBLEM CHARACTERIZATION MATRIX: HAZARDOUS WASTES
Oi
to
Impact or
Problem
Managing
Hazardous
Wastes
Causal Factors
• Chemicals and allied
products
Stone, clay and glass
Fabricated metal
Petro 1 eum and coa 1
products
Textl le ml 1 1 products
Primary metal
Type of
Prob 1 em
Created
• Human
health
• Ecological
• Economic
Duration
Short-term problems
Include Implementing
RCRA . Comprehens 1 ve
management of haz-
ardous wastes will
be a problem
throughout the next
several decades be-
cause of the growth
of key driving forces
and the number of
unknown disposal
sites
Pervasiveness
Management of
wastes from
chem 1 ca 1 pro-
duct Ion Is per-
vasive through-
out the Sunbelt.
Other driving
forces are con-
centrated In
Texas, North
Carolina,
Tennessee,
Georgia, and
A 1 abama
Magnitude/
Seriousness
This Is poten-
tial 1 y one of the
most serious
problems facing
the Sunbelt due
to the threats to
ground water
systems and the
magnitude of
wastes In the
Sunbelt
Po 1 1 cy Prob 1 em
Of particular con-
cern are difficul-
ties In Implementing
RCRA and deal Ing
with the economic
costs of compliance
for sma II f I rms
Waste
Disposal
Capacity
A11 major waste
generators (see
above)
Concentration of
the chemical
Industry
Economic Long-term problem
which wt11 worsen as
Political RCRA Is Implemented
and as Industrial
growth continues
PervasIve
throughout the
Sunbelt but of
particular con-
cern In the
Texas/Lou IsIana
Gulf Coast
Surplus capacity
may exist In the
Sunbelt, but this
capacity wi11 be
used over the
long-term
Implementation of
RCRA may substan-
tial ly reduce the
number of on-slte
disposal facilities
Cleaning
Up
Old
Sites
Failure of some • Human
generators to prop- health
erly dispose of
wastes In absence • Economic
of federal regula-
tions
Long-term concern
even If all current
generators are pro-
perly controlled
PervasIveness
Is unknown but
problem is
likely to be
concentrated i n
Texas,
Louisiana, and
Arkansas
Seriousness Is
associated with
the uncertainty
of how many sites
exist and the po-
tential for Irre-
versible ground
water contamina-
tion
Major concern is the
costs of cleaning up
Inactive dumps;
costs have been
estimated to be as
high as $28 to $55
billion
(continued)
-------
TABLE 15-6: (continued)
Impact or
Problem Causal Factors
Type of
Prob 1 em
Created
Duration
Pervasiveness
Magnitude/
Seriousness
Pol Icy Problem
U1
I
to
Siting
Hazardous
Waste
Facilities
Transport
of
Hazardous
Wastes
Increasing public con-
cern about undesirable
facilities combined
with rapidly expanding
need for more commei—
c1 a I sites
Volume of wastes pro-
duced in the South
2,400 individual
transporters
Trend toward off-site
disposal
• Political Likely to be a long-
term problem
• Economic (through the turn of
the century)
• Aesthetic
• Human
• Ecological
• Aesthetic
Present through
2010
PervasIve
throughout Sun-
belt because of
the Interstate
transport of
wastes to sites
throughout the
study area
Pervas1ve
throughout Sun-
belt but par-
ticularly
serious for
transport cen-
ters, such as
Memphis
Although this
problem may
affect large num-
bers of people
throughout the
Sunbelt, several
mechanisms exist
to reduce siting
confI lets
Seriousness wi11
I ncreases as more
wastes are gener-
ated and as pub-
I ic awareness
1ncreases
Major needs are for
more public educa-
tion about siting
choices and, for
Individual states,
choosing the appro-
priate siting mecha-
nisms
Establishing stan-
dards for trans-
porters without
creating undue eco-
nomic problems
PosslbiIIty of con-
f11cts over the
interstate transport
of wastes
-------
REFERENCES
Boatright, Dan. 1980. Personal communication.
Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc. and Putnam, Hayes & Bartlett, Inc.
1980. Hazardous Waste Generation and Commercial Hazardous
Waste Management Capacity. Washington, D.C.: U.S., Environ-
mental Protection Agency.
Canter, Larry W. 1980. "Environmental Protection During and
Following Transportation Accidents/Emergencies." Paper pre-
sented at the DOT/TSC Meeting at the Transportation Systems
Center, Cambridge, Massachusetts, September 4.
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977, Pub. L. 95-95, 91 Stat. 685.
Clean Water Act of 1977, Pub. L. 95-217, 91 Stat. 1566.
Comprenensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability
Act of 1980, Pub. L. 96-510, 94 Stat. 2767.
Copenhaver, Emily D., Richard J. Olson, and Patricia L. Rice.
1978. Regional Environment-Energy Data Book—Southern Region,
for U.S. Department of Energy. Oak Ridge, Tenn.: Oak Ridge
National Laboratory.
Duvel, W. A., and S. E. Gaines. 1979. "RCRA and Hazardous Waste
Management Regulations." Pollution Engineering 11 (November):
66-73.
EPA Journal. 1979. "Hazardous Waste Fact Sheet." 5 (February):
12~T
Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act, Pub. L. 92-516,
86 Stat. 973 (1972), amended by Pub. L. 94-51, 89 Stat. 257
(1975) and Federal Pesticide Act of 1978, Pub. L. 95-396, 92
Stat. 819.
Fred C. Hart Associates. 1979. Preliminary Assessment of Cleanup
Costs for National Hazardous Waste Problems. Washington, D.C.:
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Solid Waste.
As cited in U.S., Council on Environmental Quality. 1979.
Environmental Quality, Tenth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office, p. 183.
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Hazardous Materials Transportation Act, Title I of Transportation
Safey Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-633, 88 Stat. 2156.
Marine Protection, Research and Sanctuaries Act of 1972, Pub. L.
92-532, 86 Stat. 1052 (amended in 1974).
Maugh, Thomas H., II. 1979. "Toxic Waste Disposal a Growing Prob-
lem." Science 204 (May 25):819-23.
Murray, Chris. 1979. "Chemical Waste Disposal a Costly Problem."
Chemical and Engineering News 57 (March 19). As cited in U.S.,
Council on Environmental Quality. 1979. Environmental
Quality, Tenth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office, p. 182.
National Journal 12 (December 6, 1980):2096.
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, Pub. L. 94-580,
90 Stat. 2795.
Safe Drinking Water Act of 1974, Pub. L. 93-523, 88 Stat. 1660.
Seller, L. E., and L. W. Canter. 1980. Effects of Hazardous Waste
Disposal on Ground Water Quality. Norman, Okla.: National
Center for Ground Water Research.
Senkan, Selim M., and Nancy W. Stauffer. 1981. "What to Do with
Hazardous Waste." Technology Review 84 (November/December):
34-47.
Toxic Substances Control Act of 1976, Pub. L. 94-469, 90 Stat.
2003.
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1979. Environmental
Quality, Tenth Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office.
U.S., Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ). 1980. Environmental
Quality, Eleventh Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: Government
Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). 1974. Disposal of
Hazardous Waste, Report to Congress. Washington, D.C.:
Government Printing Office.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research and
Development (ORD), Strategic Analysis Group. 1980a. Environ-
mental Outlook 1980. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing
Office.
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U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research and
Development (ORD), Strategic Analysis Group. 1980b. "Envi-
ronmental Outlook, Briefing Report for Region VI." Washington,
B.C.: U.S., EPA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Solid
Waste. 1980. Final Environmental Impact Statement Part I for
Subtitle C, Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976, 2
vols. Washington, D.C.: U.S., EPA.
U.S., Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Region IV. November
25, 1980. Personal communication.
Yang, Edward. N.d. Assessment of Problems Related to Siting
Hazardous Waste Management Facilities; A Case Study of EPA
Regions IV and VI. Washington, D.C.: Environmental Law
Institute.
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APPENDIX ISA
SUMMARY OF RCRA REGULATIONS
Subtitle C of RCRA calls for regulatory action and guidelines
in eleven categories. These requirements, as spelled out in the
legislation and proposed regulations, are briefly described be-
low: 1
Section 3001 — Identification and Listing of Hazardous Waste;
The regulatory approach taken is to use both identify-
ing characteristics and lists of hazardous wastes,
industrial processes, and sources to be brought under
regulatory control.
The characteristics used to define hazardous waste are:
• Ignitability
• Corrosivity
• Reactivity
• Toxicity
The hazardous waste lists identify specific hazardous
wastes (e.g., water-based paint wastes), sources
generating hazardous waste (e.g., various departments
of hospitals), and processes which generate hazardous
waste (e.g., lead slag from lead alkyl production); and
indicate for each listed waste or waste stream the
reason for its inclusion (e.g., ignitable, corrosive,
reactive, toxic). A generator producing a listed waste
may be exempted from regulation providing that he could
demonstrate that the reason for listing that waste does
not apply to his particular waste stream. The methods
to be used for such a demonstration include the four
identifying characteristics plus tests for low-level
regulations described come from U.S., Environmental Pro-
tection Agency (EPA), Office of Solid Waste. 1980. Final Envi-
ronmental Impact Statement Part I for Subtitle C, Resource Con-
servation and Recovery Act of 1976. Washington, D.C.: U.S., EPA,
p. 2-8ff and p. 3-lff. The final regulations which were to have
gone into effect November 19, 1980 may differ. Also, two amend-
ments to RCRA were passed by Congress during 1980.
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radioactivity, infectiousness, mutagenic activity, bio-
accumulation potential, and toxicity.
Section 3002—Standards for Generators of Hazardous Wastes;
The generator requirements apply to those persons or
federal agencies, except households, who produce and
dispose of more than 100 kilograms (about 220 pounds)
per month of wastes identified as hazardous under the
Section 3001 regulations. The requirements of the gen-
erators of hazardous waste fall within the following
broad categories:
• Compliance with the manifest system;
• Reporting
• Recordkeeping
• Containerization
• Labeling
• Furnishing information on general
chemical composition
The key aspects of these regulations, and the greatest
benefits to be derived, revolve around the development
of a manifest system and periodic reporting requirements.
The manifest system would require that detailed infor-
mation regarding each off-site shipment of hazardous
wastes is recorded, accompanies the waste during trans-
port, and serves as the basis for filing periodic re-
ports. This system would serve to promote proper deliv-
ery and disposal of all hazardous wastes consigned by
the generator. Other aspects of these regulations
(e.g., containerization and labeling) have been devel-
oped to be consistent with existing Department of Trans-
portation (DOT) regulations.
Section 3003—Standards for Transporters of Hazardous Wastes;
The regulations identify those transporters who are
subject to regulation and specify requirements that
fall within the following broad categories:
• Recordkeeping
• Acceptance and transport of hazardous waste
• Compliance with the manifest
• Delivery of the hazardous waste to the
designated, permitted facility
• Emergency situations
• Marking and placarding of vehicles
Many of these controls are currently imposed upon some
transporters of hazardous waste by regulations under the
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Hazardous Materials Transportation Act.1 Therefore, the
RCRA regulations are designed to be consistent with
current DOT regulatory practices; importantly, the RCRA
regulations would extend the DOT regulations to intra-
state, as well as interstate, transportation of hazardous
wastes. The most significant additions to those existing
regulations affecting hazardous waste transport are the
manifest and delivery requirements that would assure
that all hazardous wastes are delivered to the desig-
nated permitted facility.
Section 3004—Standards for Owners and Operators of Hazardous
Waste Treatment, Storage, and Disposal Facilities;
These regulations are intended to provide an adequate
degree of environmental and public health protection
during the treatment, storage, and ultimate disposal of
hazardous wastes. These standards include requirements
relating to the general aspects of facility operations
(i.e., site selection, monitoring, training, security,
emergency procedures and contingency plans, inspec-
tions, closure, financial requirements, and recordkeeping/
reporting) as well as standards applicable to specific
types of treatment, storage, and disposal facilities
(i.e., storage tanks; containers; landfarms; landfills;
surface impoundments; basins; incinerators; and chemi-
cal, physical, and biological treatment facilities).
Certain practices that are controlled under other fed-
eral acts are not regulated under the treatment, storage,
and disposal standards. These practices include under-
ground (deep-well) injection, ocean dumping, discharges
to municipal sewer systems, surface discharges under a
National Pollution Discharge Elimination System (NPDES)
permit, and all treatment, storage, and disposal
activities at Publicly Owned Treatment Works (POTW) or
by ocean dumping barges and vessels.
The Section 3004 baseline regulations have been divided
into five major sections:
Human Health and Environmental Standards
General Facility Standards
Storage Standards
Treatment and Disposal Standards
Special Waste Standards
I of Transportation Safety Act of 1974, Pub. L.93-633,
88 Stat. 2156.
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The regulations establish a two-tiered system of stan-
dards. There are overriding standards for human health
and environmental protection which are intended to assure
that the design, construction, and operation of hazard-
ous waste facilities does not adversely affect human
health or the environment by degrading the ground water,
surface water, or air. The human health and environ-
mental standards are used by EPA in drafting and evalu-
ating more specific standards and can be used in design-
ing facilities. While these human health and environ-
mental standards would be legally binding, they are not
intended to be directly enforced. They are disigned to
be used on a case-by-case basis only where there is
reason to believe (e.g., a third party challenge) that
the specific standards are insufficient for human health
and environmental protection.
General facility standards apply to every type of haz-
ardous waste management facility. For example, they
absolutely prohibit locating in an active fault zone or
within the 100-year flood plain. Existing facilities
that do not meet variance requirements will be forced
to close.
In addition to the general facility standards, facili-
ties which store hazardous waste must also comply with
general storage standards as well as with standards
which apply to storage tanks and storage containers.
RCRA's definition of storage implies no discharge to
ground water, surface water, or air. The storage stan-
dards reflect this intent.
In addition to the general facility standards, facili-
ties which treat or dispose of hazardous waste must also
comply with the general treatment/disposal standards.
Facilities with incinerators; landfills; surface impound-
ments; basins; landfarms; or chemical, physical, or bio-
logical treatment processes must comply with the stan-
dards prescribed under these subsections.
Several waste streams have been identified as being of
special concern due to their unique characteristics and
the techno-economic uncertainties regarding their dis-
posal. These "special wastes" are high volume wastes
which are often disposed of on-site by generators, for
which traditional land disposal technology is techno-
economically inappropriate, and whose environmental risk
is ill-defined. These "special waste" streams include:
utility wastes (fly ash, bottom ash), oil drilling muds
and brines, cement kiln dusts, phosphate rock mining and
processing wastes, uranium mining wastes, and other min-
ing wastes. EPA is planning to promulgate Subtitle C
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requirements specific to the management of those "spe-
cial wastes" identified as hazardous under the regula-
tions. However, under the baseline regulations "special
wastes" would be subject only to general standards for
recordkeeping, reporting, etc. EPA intends to develop
any necessary control technology standards for these
wastes as soon as possible.
Section 3005—Permits for Treatment, Storage, or Disposal of
Hazardous Waste;
These regulations require that all owners or operators
of facilities treating, storing or disposing of hazardous
wastes obtain a permit prior to facility construction,
modification, or operation. The regulations establish
standards for permit applications, permit issuance, and
permit revocation.
The regulations would also require the circulation of a
public notice of any tentative determination to issue,
deny, or modify a permit. Within 30 days of publication
of the notice, any person would be able to request a pub-
lic hearing on the determination. The Regional Admini-
strator would decide whether such a hearing is appro-
priate.
Section 3006—Authorized State Hazardous Waste Programs;
This section requires the promulgation of guidelines to
assist states in the development of such programs. Pro-
cedures are given for any state to apply for authoriza-
tion of its hazardous waste program and provides for
interim authorization of state programs. Any action
taken by a state under an authorized program is given
the same force and effect as action taken by the EPA
Administrator under Subtitle C. Procedures are also
established for withdrawal of authorization by the
Administrator.
Section 3007—-Inspections;
This section requires any person who generates, stores,
treats, transports, disposes of, or otherwise handles
hazardous wastes to allow access to records relating to
these wastes to any officer or employee of the Environ-
mental Protection Agency designated by the Administrator
or any duly designated officer or emplyee of a state
having an authorized hazardous waste program. Such offi-
cers or employees are authorized:
To enter at reasonable times any establishment
or other place maintained by any person where
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hazardous wastes are generated, stored, treated,
or disposed of.
To inspect and obtain samples from any person of
any such wastes and samples of any containers or
labeling for such wastes.
Procedures are given for conducting such inspections.
In addition, provisions are made for the public to
obtain records, reports, or information.
Section 3008—Federal Enforcement;
Procedures are given for the issuance of a compliance
order and the commencement of a civil action in the
event the administrator determines that any person is
in violation of any requirement of Subtitle C. A public
hearing may be requested by the person or persons named
in the order or permit revocation. Provision is made
for criminal penalties for violations of Subtitle C.
Section 3009—Retention of State Authority:
Under this section no state may impose any requirements
less stringent than those authorized under Subtitle C,
except that if application of a regulation under Sub-
title C is postponed or enjoined by the action of any
court, a state may not be prohibited from acting on the
matter until the regulation takes effect.
Section 3010—Effective Date;
This section requires any person generating or trans-
porting hazardous wastes or owning or operating any
facility for treatment, storage, or disposal of hazar-
dous wastes to file a notification with the Administrator
within 90 days of the promulgation or revision of regu-
lations under Section 3001. The regulations under Sub-
title C respecting requiremetns applicable to the gener-
ation, transportation, treatment, storage, or disposal
of hazardous waste shall take effect six months after
their date of promulgation.
Section 3011—Authorization of Assistance to States:
Section 3011 authorizes 25 million dollars for fiscal
years 1978 and 1979 "to be used to make grants to the
States for purposes of assisting the states in the devel-
opment and implementation of authorized state hazardous
waste programs."
— 36 fiUS GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 1983-6 59 -095 /05 11
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