EPA-230/1-73-D13 AUGUST 1973 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PROPOSED EFFLUENT GUIDELINES FLAT GLASS INDUSTRY QUANTITY U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Office of Planning and Evaluation Washington, D.C. 20460 ' ------- This document is available in limited quantities through the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Information Center, Room W-327 Waterside Mall, Washington, D. C. 20460. The document will subsequently be available through the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, Virginia 22151. ------- ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PROPOSED EFFLUENT GUIDELINES FLAT GLASS INDUSTRY FINAL REPORT To U.S.Environmental Protection Agency Office of Planning and Evaluation Washington, D.C. 20460 August 1973 230 !•:.; ------- TABLE OF CONTENTS Pag_e List of Tables ill EXECUTIVE SUMMARY S-l I. INDUSTRY SEGMENTS 1 A. Introduction 1 B. Flat Glass Products and Applications 2 1. Sheet Glass 2 2. Plate Glass 2 3. Float Glass 2 C. Industry Structure and Characterization 3 1. Participating Companies 3 2. Product Distribution 4 3. Flat Glass Production Manufacturing 5 a. Sheet Glass 6 b. Plate Glass 8 c. Float Glass 12 4. Flat Glass Fabrication 14 a. Laminated Glass 14 b. Tempered Glass 16 5. Shipments and Consumption of Flat Glass 19 6. Segments Likely to be Impacted 27 II. FINANCIAL PROFILES 31 III. PRICE EFFECTS 35 IV. IMPACT ANALYSIS 38 A. Major Segments 38 B. Sheet Glass Manufacturing Segment 38 C. Float Glass 39 D. Plate Glass 40 E. Solid Tempered Automotive Glass 41 F. Laminated Windshield Fabrication 43 V. LIMITS OF THE ANALYSIS 49 ii ------- LIST OF TABLES Table No. Page 1 Approximate Operating Parameters of Sheet Glass Process 7 2 Flat Glass Plants 9 3 New Investment by U.S. Flat Glass Producers 10 4 Location of Automotive Fabrication Flat Glass Plants in the United States 17 5 Shipments of Flat Glass, 1968 - 1972 20 6 Flat Glass Shipments by U.S. Producers, 1972 21 7 Apparent Consumption of Flat Glass, 1972 23 8 U.S.Consumption of Automotive Glass, 1972 24 9 Applications of Automotive Glass, 1972 26 10 Foreign Trade in Automotive Glass, 1972 26 11 Float Glass: Supply and Demand Capacity Projections 29 12 1972 Financial Data - Flat and Automotive Glass Manufacturers 32 13 Financial Profile of Operations, 1967 - 1970 33 14 Tentative Effluent Requirements for Flat Glass Industry for B.P.T., B.A.T. and N.S.P.S. Controls 45 15 Summary of Investment and Annual Operating Costs 46 16 Production Data - Automotive Glass Plants 47 17 Summary of Investments and Annual Operating Costs 48 iii ------- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ------- I. INTRODUCTION The objective of this study is to provide an analysis of the economic impact of the water pollution control requirements anticipated under the Federal Water Pollution Control Amendments of 1972. The impact was analyzed for three levels of treatment: • Best Practicable Technology available (B.P.T.) - to be met by industrial dischargers by 1977 • Best Available Technology economically achievable (B.A.T.) - to be met by 1983 • New Source Performance Standards (N.S.P.S.) - to be applied to all new facilities that discharge directly to navigable waters and constructed after the promulgation of guidelines. Specifically the economic impacts analyzed are: • Price • Profitability, growth and capital availability • Employment • Community • Balance of Payments • Related Industries The information and data base for carrying out this analysis were developed primarily from three sources: 1) information in the effluent guideline development document on the flat glass industry, 2) our background, knowledge and experience with the flat glass industry, and 3) assistance of certain participating companies in the industry and other external sources. II. METHODOLOGY In the first phase of this study the flat glass industry was divided into industrial segments which differentiated the industry by technology, products, end-use applications, and markets. In each segment the produc- tion techniques and technologies were documented: market size and trends, price history and pricing policies and product distribution determined, S-l ------- participating companies and the financial characteristics of these com- panies identified, and characterization of existing plants in terms of size, employment, etc. was carried out. At the conclusion of Phase I and with the aid of information supplied by the Contractor of the Effluent Guideline Development Study, those segments that are most likely to be significantly impacted were defined. In Phase II of this study, those segments of the flat glass industry which appeared from the first phase work to be most severely affected by the cost of controls were analyzed for the magnitude of the impact. In this phase the cost information generated in the Effluent Guideline Development Study was used as the basis of the analysis. The anticipated guidelines and associated cost were reviewed with the management of representative firms for reaction and discussion. Independently these costs were translated into unit cost and compared with existing unit prices. The anticipated investment required to meet the three levels cf abatement was also analyzed relative to existing investment and our estimate of the ability of industry to meet these additional costs. Consideration was given to the present and projected economic state of the various industry segments and conclusions drawn as to the effects of additional cost on price, profitability, employments,, etc. III. SEGMENTATION Initially this study of the economic impact of water pollution control on the flat glass industry was limited to three major segments of primary glass production: 1) sheet glass, 2) plate glass, 3) float glass. The remaining segment of the primary flat glass manufacturing, rolled and polished glass, was excluded on the basis that it represented a relatively minor fraction of the total glass industry. It became evident at the conclusion of Phase I and with support of pre- liminary data from the Effluent Guideline Development Study that relatively minor waste water effluent problems existed within the sheet and float glass segments of the industry and the costs associated with meeting S-2 ------- anticipated guidelines were small. However, it was evident that rela- tively greater problems and cost might be involved in the industrial segments of 1) automotive glass tempering, and 2) automotive glass lamination. It was appropriate then that the Phase II study concentrate on these two segments of automotive glass fabrication. Therefore, Phase II of this study focused heavily on developing the necessary information and analyzing the impact of water pollution control on these latter two industry segments. IV. COSTS The cost data used as a basis of analysis in this study were taken from the Effluent Guideline Development Document on the flat glass industry. Operating costs and investment requirements for each level of control were selected on the basis of the anticipated guidelines recommended. These data are summarized in Table S-l. Manufacturing cost data are not available for the large number of products of these industry segments. We found that understandably, participating companies are reluctant to provide such data; therefore, we have used average prices as a basis for comparison in the study. V. FINANCIAL PROFILE Table 12 displays the significant financial data for the publicly held U.S. flat and automotive glass producers. Most of these companies are fully integrated, multiproduct and multi-industry participants with significant positions in the U.S. economy. Glasss sales naturally repre- sent a greater proportion of the sales of the smaller companies such as Shatterproof, Guardian and ASG, but is still a significant portion of LOF's and PPG's total business. Data is unavailable for Ford's glass business which is a small proportion of Ford's total business. Finan- cial data on private companies (Safetee, Safelite) are also unavailable. S-3 ------- Sheet TABLE S-l Segment SUMMARY OF ANTICIPATED INVESTMENTS AND ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS FOR TYPICAL PLANTS Typical Plant Size ($000) B.P.T. Investment Annual Operating Cost B.A.T. Investment Annual Operating Cost N.S.P.S. Annual Operating Investment Cost Float Plate 400,000 tons 165,000 tons no cost 57 32.8 7-134* 3.1-58.6* 656 138.3 7-134* 3.1-58.6* 656 138.3 Tempered 37.5 MMSF 81 24.1 149 42.1 149 42.1 Laminated 8.0 MMSF 32 14.6 115 32.8 115 32.8 Source: Effluent Guideline Development Document Alternative depends on total production and degree of solids buildup ------- TABLE 12 to I Cn PPG Industries Ford Motor Company Libbey-Owens-Ford American Saint-Gol Guardian Industrie Combustion Engrg. 1972 FINANCIAL DATA - FLAT AND AUTOMOTIVE GLASS ($ Values MANUFACTURERS in Millions) Glass Basis Year Dec. Dec. Dec. . Dec. Dec. Dec. Oct. for End 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 Net Sales 1395.9 20194.4 594.4 60.7 61.9 1179.9 42.7 Net Earnings 82.7 870.0 52.6 3.5 5.7 39.3(1) 1.1 Working Capital 346.1 1684.5 118.2 19.3 8.4 153.5 13.4 Share- holders' Equity 731.2 5961.3 352.4 26.0 23.5 295.3 23.1 Return on Equity 11.3 14.6 14.9 13.5 24.3 13.3 4.8 Net Sales 614.2 N.A. 404.2 57.7 53.9 45.0 42.7 Earnings Before Taxes 69.5 N.A. 81.6 6.3 10.8 N.A. 2.0 Glass Sales as % of Total Sales 44.0 N.A. 68.0 95.0 87.0 3.8 100.0 (1) Before extraordinary charges Source: 1972 Company Annual Reports and Contractor estimates ------- VI. IMPACTS Based on information generated in this study the economic impact of the cost of meeting the anticipated water pollution guidelines for the three levels of treatment are summarized below. The cost and effect on present prices for each segment are summarized in Table S-2. • jSheet Glass In the manufacture of sheet glass products, no process waste waters are involved; therefore, no waste water or waste load need be treated and none should be discharged. In the light of these findings no additional costs are anticipated for sheet glass manufacturing operations and there will be no corresponding impact on price, profitability, production curtailment, employment or related community effects. These conclusions apply to all three levels of treatment. Glass To meet the B.P.T. level of treatment no additional costs are required and therefore no economic impact in price, production, profitability, employment, etc., will result. The cost and investment of control technology for B.A.T. level of treat- ment in a float glass operation (no discharge) are minimal. Considering the healthy state of this segment of the industry no economic impacts are anticipated. The proposed limit for new sources of flat glass manufacturing is the same as for B.A.T., i.e., no discharge. Considering the substantial investment required for new float glass facilities, the incremental in- vestment will not impose restrictions on future plant construction. * Plate Glass The anticipated economic effect of water pollution control treatment on the plate glass manufacturing segment of the industry will be minimal. The conclusions are based on two factors: a) the incremental costs to S-6 ------- TABLE S-2 CO I SUMMARY OF INCREMENTAL UNIT COSTS TO MEET PROPOSED 1977 AND 1983 GUIDELINES Segment Float Plate Tempered Laminated Incremental Cost Present To Meet B.P.T. Average Price (1977) Neg. $0.13/lb O.OlC/lb $0.50/SF 0.06C/SF $1.50-1.80/SF 0.18C/SF Incremental Cost % of Present To Meet B.A.T. Price (1983) Neg . 0.1 0.04c/lb 0.1 O.llC/SF < 0.1 0.41C/SF % of Present Price — 0.3 •v 0.2 * 0.3 ------- meet either B.P.T. (1977) or B.A.T. (1983) are small, and b) continua- tion of the manufacture of glass by the plate process will be limited by other factors, i.e., the replacement by float glass operations. Due to the noncompetitive nature of plate glass manufacturing, future con- struction of plate glass plants will not take place and new sources treatment will not be a consideration. • Solid Tempered Automotive Glass The incremental cost of meeting the proposed B.P.T. (1977) for tempered automotive glass represents approximately 0.1% of present average prices. It was concluded that this incremental cost will be passed on by the glass fabricator and therefore would have no negative effects on current rates of profitability. The required investment will be available on a plant-by-plant and company-by-company basis and in no way restricts production or expansion. It is further concluded that incremental costs to meet B.A.T. treatment (1983) will be small (less than 0.2% of present prices) and this small increase will be passed on by the fabricator. Therefore no impacts are anticipated. The proposed control technology for new sources of tempered automotive glass are identical with those for B.A.T. (1983) and therefore will impose no negative economic factors on the industry. • Laminated Windshield Fabrication The unit costs for meeting the proposed B.P.T. and B.A.T. guidelines are O.lSc/SF and 0.41C/SF, respectively. This incremental cost repre- sents less than 0.1% of the present price of laminated windshields in the former case and less than 0.3% for the latter. Thus it is concluded that the cost resulting from the recommended control and treatment tech- nologies will have little or no economic effect on the laminated windshield fabrication industry. Any incremental cost will be passed on and thus no negative effect on profitability or plant operations are anticipated. The required capital will be available to meet these costs. The proposed re- quirements for new sources are identical with those proposed for B.A.T. (1983) and therefore the conclusions will not be altered for new plants. S-8 ------- VII. LIMITATIONS In arriving at the conclusions of this analysis certain assumptions about the economy have been made such as the rate of growth of the Gross National Product. Constant 1973 dollars for all future expendi- tures have also been assumed. Specifically, the conclusions in this study are based on the guidelines as proposed in the Effluent Guideline Development Document, the asso- ciated technology to meet these limits, and the related cost. If the assumptions in deriving these costs or the effluent requirements are changed as to require different technologies, then the conclusions of this study may not necessarily be valid. In our discussion with industry particpants we noted that exceptions were taken with the con- clusion of the Guidelines Contractor relating specifically to laminating facilities, and some companies question whether the proposed control and treatment technologies would achieve the required effluent quality and at the indicated cost. However, these same participants indicated that if the control technology and associated cost base proposed were valid that these incremental costs would have no impact on their present operation or decision to expand. We believe that this analysis as presented represents an accurate de- scription of the economic effect of the cost of pollution on this industry. There are other factors operating within the industry such as the replacement of much of the present sheet glass capacity with float that probably are overriding factors in decisions to close certain operations and expand others. S-9 ------- I. INDUSTRY SEGMENTS A. Introduction This study is intended to supply the Environmental Protection Agency with an analytical framework for determining the economic impact of water pollution control requirements and proposed water effluent standards upon the flat glass industry. For purposes of the study and to be consistent with studies on the proposed effluent standard and related cost, the in- dustry was segmented into appropriate sectors. Within the scope of this study we initially covered the following sectors of primary glass manu- facturing. • Sheet Glass • Plate Glass • Float Glass The principal distinction between the sectors is technological, i.e., the manufacturing processes are quite distinct. Markets and applications however do overlap for each segment. The remaining sector of primary glass manufacturing, rolled and polished glass, was excluded on the basis that it represented a relatively minor fraction of the total glass in- dustry. It became evident at the completion of Phase I of this study that on the basis of preliminary data developed by the subcontractor carrying out a study of the proposed water effluent guidelines and the related cost to meet these proposed guidelines, that relatively minor water effluent problems existed in the primary flat glass segment of sheet and float glass manufacturing. However, the flat glass automotive fabricating industry sectors of lamination and tempering were of somewhat greater concern due to the composition of effluent water streams. It was therefore agreed at the Phase I review meeting to change the di- rection of the study and to focus on the economic impact of the proposed water effluent guidelines on the flat glass automotive fabricating sectors of lamination and tempering. ------- B. Flat Glass Products and Applications I. Sheet Glass Sheet glass is a transparent flat glass with a smooth fire- polished surface made by machine drawing in one of a number of semi- proprietary processes. Although sheet glass may be either clear or colored, U.S. consumption is invariably clear. Sheet: glass can either be "thin," weighing between 4 ounces and 16 ounces per square foot; "window," weighing between 16 ounces and 28 ounces; or "heavy," weigh- ing over 28 ounces per square foot. 2^. Plate Glass Plate glass is a rolled glass that has been ground and polished to make the glass transparent and to produce parallel surfaces that are virtually distortion- free. 3. Float Glass Float glass is of a similar quality to plate but is manufactured by floating a layer of molten glass on molten tin in a continuous hori- zontal ribbon that theoretically could be infinite in its length. Current technology limits the range of thicknesses in which each type of flat glass can be produced, and these thicknesses thus define the potential applications. Thin sheet glass up to 12 ounces is used for the manufacture of slides, transparencies and picture glass; over 12 ounce thin glass is used in storm windows and for laminating. Window glass is a common glazing material for residential construction and is available single-strength (18-19 ounces) or double (24-26 ounces). Single strength glass is about 3/32" and double strength about 1/8". Heavy sheet glass is the most frequent material used for tempered patio doors and is purchased in thicknesses of 5/32" to 7/32". ------- Plate and float glass are principally used in automotive applications and in store display windows, curtain walls and high quality mirrors. Plate glass is available in thicknesses of 1/8" to 1-1/4" while float is 1/8" to 1/4"; float glass technology is advancing rapidly in making even thinner sheets that might compete with 3/32" sheet glass in the very near future. While sheet glass is generally cut for immediate use in residential con- struction, some of it and the majority of plate and float glass is further processed or fabricated for automotive or building safety appli- cations. This processing is either a tempering or a laminating process. Tempered glass is a type of safety glass that is used principally for glazing the side and rear windows of motor vehicles and is used increas- ingly in residential patio doors, shower enclosures and large fixed glass panels. Over the past two years, a number of states have enacted legislation to make tempered glass a mandatory product in residential patio doors; when broken, tempered glass crumbles harmlessly instead of shattering. Laminated glass is formed by softening panes of sheet, float or plate glass and then joining them together in a formed shape with an intermediate layer of clear vinyl. Laminated glass is most fre- quently used in automotive windshields; in these applications the product can be tinted or can have embedded the radio aerial wire. C. Industry Structure and Characterization 1. Participating Companies The production of sheet, plate and float glass in the United States is highly concentrated and involves only seven companies. Over 87% of the U.S. output of sheet glass is produced by PPG Industries (PPG), Ford Motor Company, Libby-Owens-Ford (LOF), and ASG Industries (ASG). PPG, LOF and ASG account for all of plate glass manufacture, while these three companies and Ford Motor Company, plus Guardian Industries and C-E Glass (a subsidiary of Combustion Engineering), are the only pro- ducers of float glass. ------- In summary, three firms largely dominate U.S. production of plate glass. PPG and LOF are large, multiproduct firms producing a wide range of flat glass products, including rolled and tempered as well as other industrial products. The two companies also participate in the foreign production of flat glass through arrangements ranging from process licensing agree- ments and joint ownership of foreign facilities. The third major company, Ford, produces float and tempered glass primarily for its own consumption in the manufacture of vehicles, but also for sale to the trade. Two smaller firms - ASG and Fourco Glass Company - also are fairly sig- nificant. ASG produces plate, sheet, float and rolled glass (as well as tempered architectural glass) while Fourco's production is limited to sheet glass. Finally, Guardian, while a substantial processor of laminated and tempered automotive glass, only commenced the production of float glass in 1970; C-E Glass did so only as recently as 1971. In addition to Guardian Industries, Ford, LOF, and PPG are manufacturers of raw glass as well as fabricators of laminated and tempered automotive glass. These four companies, plus Chrysler who purchases raw glass and fabricates it for its own use in the manufacture of automobiles, probably account for over 80% of automotive glass manufactured in the United States today; the remainder is produced by three small independent companies - Shatterproof Glass Corporation; Safelite Industries; and Safetee. Shatterproof produces both laminated and tempered glass, while the other two companies are only laminators. All three companies purchase raw glass from the major producers for further processing. LOF is the largest automotive glass fabricator, serving General Motors' needs together with PPG. Shatterproof, Guardian and other small companies mainly supply the replacement market. 2. Product Distribution The distribution of flat glass in the United States utilizes a var- iety of distribution channels. It is significant to note, however, that while approximately two-thirds of primary plate and float glass produced in ------- the United States is initially destined for intracompany transfers for further fabrication or processing (mainly for automotive uses), about 85-90% of sheet glass is sold directly to customers through various dis- tribution channels without intracompany processing. Direct sales from the factory to independent glass distributors, fabrica- tors, processors (such as for automotive applications), and glazing contractors are the most frequently used channel. These prequalified buyers have the advantage over other potential purchasers of flat glass who must order their glass, even in carload lots, at higher prices from the distributors. The major glass producer, PPG, distributes a significant part of its output through captive warehouse and service centers in addition to selling to recognized factory buyers. These outlets serve buyers at all distribution levels and are thus in direct competition with PPG's normal direct factory customers. Most of these factory buyers are also importers of flat and tempered glass. They place their orders through U.S. sales agents representing the foreign manufacturers or they purchase it from the agents who might have imported glass for their own account. Importers may thus resell the landed product or use it themselves in glazing for manufacturing products that use glass. Tempered and laminated automotive glass for original equipment, accounting for a major share of the fabricated glass market, is sold directly to motor vehicle manufacturers at negotiated prices. Some automotive replacement glass is distributed by some of the major motor vehicle manufacturers through their systems of franchised new-car dealers; it might also be marketed from the producer to the independent glass distributor, hence to the auto glass jobber and then to the auto repair shop. 3. Flat Glass Production Manufacturing All flat glass production is a continuous process, that is, once production is started it continues around the clock until interrupted by breakdown or shutdown. In this respect flat glass manufacture differs from any other glass forming processes. ------- Basically the raw material for all three production processes, sheet, plate and float are the same. Minor changes in batch compositions may be made to introduce color and some changes in working conditions; of the glass; however, the major ingredients of silica sand, limestone, soda ash and cullet (re- cycled plant scrap) remain relatively constant. Raw material storage and batch preparation and feeding to the furnace do not differ significantly in any of the three sectors or from plant to plant within each sector. Although glass tanks (furnaces) differ in size and detail construction, the basic function is essentially the same in all flat glass manufacturing. The tank provides a high temperature environment in which the raw materials decompose and react to form an inorganic melt of Na«0-CaO-Si07. The residence time in the tank allows for homogenization and removal of bubbles and seeds and results in a high quality glass of the correct viscosity to be delivered to the working section of the tank. The uniqueness of the three flat glass processes begins at the forming end of the tank. a. Sheet Glass • Manufacturing Process There are basically two processes for drawing sheet glass from the work- ing compartment, vertical drawing or horizontal drawing. In the Four- cault and the Pittsburg Process, the glass sheet is drawn vertically through a system of pairs of asbestos covered rollers. Vertical drawn machines may be from 16-30 feet tall. In the Colburn process the glass is drawn upward from the forehearth for a distance of 2 - 2-1/2 ft and then directed into a horizontal position by a guide roll and passed through an annealing lehr (~180 ft). In all three processes the glass is automatically cut in specified sizes, inspected and packaged. Yields vary between 60-75% as a result of edge loss, cutting, breakage and off quality sheet. Characteristics of the sheet glass processes are given in Table 1. ------- Sheet glass product quality is subject to stria, cords and distortions due to the variations in control of the sheet thickness as it is being formed. Thus, sheet glass quality is considerably below that of plate or float glass but is adequate for residential construction, the primary application. TABLE 1 APPROXIMATE OPERATING PARAMETERS OF SHEET GLASS PROCESS Process Fourcault Colburn Pittsburg Average No. Machines/ Tank 4-6 1-2 4-6 Max. Width 108" 144" 120" Speed Range* ft/hr 225-300 320-400 280-400 Average Time Between Yield % Shutdowns 65-75 200-250 hrs 250-500 hrs *For single strength window glass (3/32") Speed is not linear with thickness • Water Streams The waste water streams in a sheet glass operation, excluding sanitary sewerage, are all noncontact water. The principal use of water is for cooling around the tank, the forehearth, and at the forming position where water is used to extract heat from the newly formed sheet and to cool the rolls. In addition there is compressor cooling and boiling water. The effluent streams then are the blowdown from the recirculated cooling water, boiler and from water softener regeneration. In integrated sheet glass facilities that have tempering capabilities for finishing in plant or intraplant transfer, additional waste water streams exist. These streams are principally contact cooling water in edge grinding, hole drilling and cutting. The effluent stream contains oil, coolant and glass. The flow rates appear to vary considerably from plant to plant, depending on quality of the effluent.and might vary from 1-2 gal/day/sq ft of production. At this point in time the quality of water to be treated and the composition of the effluent do not appear to offer significant problems. ------- * Plants and Locations Eleven sheet glass plants have been identified in the United States. The parent company and plant locations are given in Table 2. One-third are located in West Virginia and the remainder in the Midwest, Oklahoma, and California. Although relatively few sheet glass olants have been built in the last 20 years, the technology has not changed a great deal and equipment is reasonably modernized. Plant capacities vary from 100 to 680 tons/day output and employ between 150 to 900 production workers * Pro- duction per manhour has risen to ^80-85 sq ft/manhr through improved efficiency. New investment in sheet glass facilities over the past seven years has been modest at a total of ^35MM$. (Table 3) The sheet glass industry employs less than 5000 production and related workers, plus an additional 20% other employees. The number of employees has dropped 30% over the past five years. By and large the decrease in em- ployment has been a result of plant closings, although some reduction is due to product efficiency. Reduction in capacity of U.S. sheet manufacturers is in part attributed to lower profitability, competition from float glass products and pressures from imports. b_. Plate Glass • Manufacturing Process In the manufacture of sheet glass certain defects are always present. Small variations in thickness are unavoidable and cause distortion. High quality image transmission for undistorted vision requires that the two surfaces of the glass be flat and parallel and this condition can be obtained by grind- ing and polishing. Plate glass is produced by a continuous tank rolling process. The molten glass from the tank forehearth flows over a weir or through a refractory slot to define the initial shape. The still viscous glass is then passed between two water cooled rolls to give it final thickness and width. The glass ribbon is stretched slightly to improve dimensional control and then passed into a continuous lehr for annealing. Production speed is controlled by glass level and roll setting and speeds of up to 1250 ft/hr are obtained with maximum widths of 132 inches. Tank outputs are of the order of 250-400 ton/day. 8 ------- TABLE 2 FLAT GLASS PLANTS Company Type of Plant Sheet Plate Float ASG Combustion Engrg. Jeanette.Pa. Okmulgee,0kla. Kingsport,Tenn. Greenland,Tenn. Floreffe,Pa. *Almonesson,N.J. Ford Fourco Clarksburg,W.Va.(2) Ft. Smith,Ark. Dearborn,Mich. Nashville,Tenn. *Tulsa, Okla. Guardian LOF Charleston,W.Va. Rossford,Ohio Carleton,Mich. Toledo,Ohio Ottawa,111. Lathrop,Calif. Rossford,0hio **Laurinberg ,N.C. PPG Henryetta,0kla. Mt.Vernon,Ohio Clarksburg,W.Va. Mt. Zion,Ill. Fresno,Calif. Cumberland,Md. Cumberland,Md. Meadville,pa. Crystal City,Mo. Carlisle,Pa. *Wichita Falls,Tex. * Under construction ** Planned 1974 ------- TABLE 3 NEW INVESTMENT BY U.S. FLAT GLASS PRODUCERS January 1964 - June 1971 (000 $) Flat Glass Sheet Plate Float Modification of Existing Facilities 15,892 11,714 45,272 New Facilities 19,272 929 171,292 Total 35,164 12,643 216,564 Source: U.S. Tariff Commission Report, No. TEA-1-23, January 1972 10 ------- After annealing and cooling, the continuous ribbon is cut to standard size and then ground and polished on one side at a time. Alternatively the twin grinding process allows for grinding and polishing both sides of the glass simultaneously without interrupting the continuous flow by cutting. In the latter process the glass is supported from below by the grinding and polishing machine. Since the process is a continuous one the speed at the sheet forming end of the line dictates the speed of the finishing operation. Considerable quantities of sand, iron oxide and cerium oxide in water suspension are used as grinding and polishing agents in the plate glass process. Cutting and packaging is similar to other flat glass processes. • Water Streams In addition to the normal requirements for noncontact cooling water and discharge from water pretreatment sytems (i.e., water softening and ion exchange), the plate glass process uses significant amounts of water in the grinding and polishing stages. Water usage varies from 1.5 to 4 MM gal/day depending on the specific plant. In plate glass manufacture, the glass is ground flat with silica and polished with iron oxide rouge. This process produces a very high level of suspended solids (15,000 ppm) with a low level of dissolved solids and a very low level of BOD in the plant effluent. Primary settling is reported to reduce the level of suspended solids from 15,000 ppm to 30 ppm. It should be possible to reduce the 30 ppm level of suspended solids even further to about 5 ppm through filtration if this is be- lieved necessary. The production of plate glass produces the largest and most concentrated effluent per ton of glass in flat glass manufacturing. It is also the most expensive flat glass manufacturing process. Producers of plate glass have been switching over to float glass at a very rapid rate and it is quite possible that in several years there will be at most one major manu- facturer of plate glass. 11 ------- • Plants and Locations Three plate glass manufacturers have been identified as presently oper- ating in the United States. The locations of plate glass plants are listed in Table 2. Since 1964, 12 plate glass lines have been closed as the market has been consumed by the more effluently produced float glass. Only one of the present plate glass facilities has been built in the past 15 years. The ASG plant at Kingsport, Tennessee was brought on stream in 1960. Plant capacity ranges from 270-380 ton/day with one tank and line per plant. The investment in plate glass facilities over the period 1964-1971 is believed to be about $15.5MM with less than 8% of that investment in new facilities. The rapid replacement of plate glass capacity with float is expected to continue simply from an economical base. In 1970 the product per manhour in plate glass manufacture was ^33 sq ft/manhr compared with ^112 sq ft/ manhr in float glass. Plate glass demand was probably about 70 MM sq ft in 1972 — less than 4% of the total flat glass consumption. • Employees The number of employees in the plate glass industry has been reduced drastically over the past five years. From 1967,when the number of pro- duction workers was 5560,to 1972 the employees in this industry have been reduced to 1000-1200 workers. Significant numbers of these people have been absorbed by the new float glass facilities however. It is expected that further reductions in the production employees will occur over the next 3-5 years as essentially the remainder of the plate glass facilities are replaced by float capacity. c. Float Glass • Manufacturing Process The float glass process developed in the U.K. and introduced in 1959 represented the most significant technical development in the flat glass industry in this century. This process makes it possible to produce a continuous ribbon of glass having perfectly flat and parallel surfaces without grinding and polishing. Float glass products have the high surface finish of sheet glass and the flatness and freedom from distortion of high optical quality plate glass. 12 ------- Tanks for melting and refining of glass for float glass lines tend to be larger than those for sheet glass. Typical tanks have a pull capacity of v400-500 ton/day producing 50-150 MM sq.ft. of product. The process is a continuous in-line operation and one tank serves one line. Production speeds are high and depending upon thickness may reach 1500 ft/hr or greater. The key element in the process is the fact that the molten glass is drawn from the forehearth on to a molten tin bath and due to the density differences the molten glass floats and is supported on the tin bath. Surface tension forces result in a natural thickness of the floating glass of 1/4". The top face of the floating sheet is fire polished and the lower surface defined by the tin bath. The continuous ribbon of glass, after cooling sufficiently to prevent distortions, is drawn from the tin bath on to an annealing lehr to remove strain due to any thermal induced stresses. Cutting and packaging are similar to other flat glass products. The economics are extremely attractive in that the speeds are high, labor content low and the expensive grinding and polishing is eliminated. • Water Streams In float glass facilities the major water use is for noncontact, recircu- lated cooling water at the tanks and tin bath, boiler feed water and compressor cooling. In addition, some facilities require wash water to remove surface contamination prior to further processing or packaging. The effluent flow varies somewhat from plant to plant and limited data indicates that quantities are of the order of 20-35 gal/ton of glass product. In those cases the glass is washed with detergent, city water, and deionized water. Washing with detergent is gradually being discon- tinued, so the process wastewater effluent generally contains primarily sodium sulfate (from S0_ treatment of the glass) at a concentration of about 400 ppm. It is quite possible that this wash water could be con- centrated by using two countercurrent city water washes and then recycled to the glass raw material batching process, thereby closing the system through total recycle. 13 ------- • Plants and Locations In 1972 there were 11 float glass plants in operation in the United States. Since that time the ASG plant in Greenland, Tenn. has come on stream and three additional plants are under construction or are planned for construc- tion this year. By the end of 1973-early 1974, 15 float plants, representing 21 float glass lines will be in production having a total capacity of 1700 MM sq ft of glass. This represents a ^700% increase in float capacity since 1967. The locations of specific plants are listed in Table 2. Obviously all plants are relatively new and represent substantial invest- ment on the part of the glass producers. The Tariff Commission Report states that 216 MM$ have been invested in new plants and modifications of float glass facilities from 1964 to 1971. • Employees The number of production and related employees in the float glass industry segment has risen to nearly 400% since 1967 when the industry employed 1500 workers. By the end of 1973 the production employment should reach 7300. A portion of this growth has obviously come at the expense of employment in plate glass facilities. Commensurate with the increase in employment is the output per manhour which has risen from an average of 87 sq ft/ manhr in 1967 to—120 sq ft/manhr. That figure varies substantially since new plants have been constantly coming on stream; however, it is expected that the efficiency will continue to increase as experience is gained. 4. Flat Glass Fabrication a. Laminated Glass • Manufacturing Process Automotive windshield requirements demand not only resistance to forces of impact but the elimination, as far as possible, of hazards of splinter- ing if fracture occurs. Laminated glass is constructed of two glass plates normally 1/8" thick bonded with an interlayer of 0.015" thick polyvinyl butylate. 14 ------- The in-line fabrication process begins with template cutting of windshield shapes from large sheets of float glass. Edges are seamed to facilitate handling. Precut and precleaned shapes are bent into windshield shapes by heat sagging in a specifically designed jig or frame. Two mated pieces of glass separated by a parting compound are mounted in the jig and passed through a lehr at the softening temperature of the glass. Prior to laminating the glass is washed free of dirt and parting compound, interlayered with a sheet of polyvinyl butylate and prepressed between rollers to remove entrapped air. The final bonding is accomplished in oil or air autoclaves. Oil autoclaves are generally used and pressing is done 2 uneer a pressure of 28-85 Ib/in. at ^212°F. Residual oil from the lamina- tion step is removed by draining followed by a series of washing and rinsing cycles. If seaming is done after autoclaving a final wash is used. Fabri- cated windshields are then packed and shipped. • Waste Water Streams Contact water streams in the lamination glass fabrication are primarily wash water. In wet seaming small amounts of water are used to flush away glass particles produced by the grinding process. Initial washing is used to re- remove oil, grease and dirt prior to sagging. Both once through and recycle type washers are used. Prelamination washes include washing of the vinyl sheeting and removal of dirt from the glass surface. Three stage washers are used and include detergent wash, city water rinse and ionized water rinse. Water is recycled through the stages and discharged. The postlamination wash involves removal of residual oil from the autoclaves. Older methods use a first stage detergent wash followed by two to three rinses. More recently some plants include an initial hot water rinse prior to the detergent rinse thus reducing the amount of detergent required. Small amounts of waste water are generated from the separation of oil and water from the autoclaves. Typical flow rates from lamination facilities are of the order of 4300 gal/1000 sq ft of product. 15 ------- • Plants and Locations We have identified twelve facilities that participated in the automotive lamination fabrication (Table 4). Approximately 50% of the plants are located in the Midwest, principally Ohio and Michigan. In most cases wind- shield lamination facilities are integrated with automotive tempering facilities although some large producers segment their operations. The total U.S. capacity for windshield lamination is given as 75,000 sqM/day (810,000 sq ft/day) and the average plant size is 6,900 sqM/day (74,000 sq ft/day) in the work of the effluent guideline development document for the EPA. This work also estimated that 30% of these facilities discharged to municipal systems. b. Tempered Glass • Manufacturing Process Tempered glass is a type of safety glass made by processing flat glass to increase its mechanical strength. Due to the nature of the process, tem- pered glass when fractured will break into small cubes instead of long sharp slivers thus reducing the probability of serious injury to vehicle passengers and operators. Tempered glass is required in all side and back lites of U.S. automobiles but has been replaced as a windshield structure for some time. Virtually all tempered and automotive glass is produced by thermal process- ing of precut flat glass to raise the residual stress oE the glass in such a way as to increase its strength. In this process the temperature of the glass is raised near the softening point, the glass removed from the heating furnace and the surface chilled quickly. By and large force air cooling is used in the automotive tempering operation. The surface layer quickly be- comes rigid while the interior is still fluid and expanded. As the tempera- ture gradient through the glass approaches equilibrium the stresses in the surface become highly compressive while the interior is placed under a tensile stress. Therefore, the residual surface compressive stress must be overcome by an applied tension stress before the glass can be fractured. Once the tensile strength of the glass is exceeded and a crack initiated it will propa- gate and release the high internal stress causing the material to fracture into very small fragments. 16 ------- TABLE 4 LOCATION OF AUTOMOTIVE FABRICATION FLAT GLASS PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES Company Chrysler Ford Guardian LOF PPG Safelite Safetee Shatterproof Type of Plant Laminating Detroit, Mich. Dearborn, Mich. Detroit, Mich. Toledo, Ohio Ottowa, 111. Lathrop, Calif. Creighton, Pa. Greenburg, Pa. Wichita, Kan. Enfield, N.C. Philadelphia, Pa. Detroit, Mich. Tempering Detroit, Mich. Nashville, Tenn. Millburg, Ohio Toledo, Ohio Ottowa, 111. Lathrop, Calif. Rossford, Ohio Crestline, Ohio Tipton, Pa. Carlisle, Pa. Detroit, Mich. 17 ------- Tempered glass cannot be cut or ground after the tempering process. There- fore all cutting, drilling and seaming are done prior to the thermal processing. For curved side and back lites, bending is carried out in the laminating process just prior to the quenching of the surface. * Waste Water Streams The principal waste water streams in automotive tempering of glass are in the pretempering operations such as seaming and drilling, and the washing prior to tempering. In the pretempering operations, small amounts of water are used in the seaming operation to hold down dust. Edge grinding is carried out on all exposed edges of side lites. An oil-water emulsion is used to flush away glass particles. All of this coolant is recycled after removing scum. Holes for window handles and brackets are drilled prior to tempering and coolant water is used to flush away the glass from the drilling operation. The primary source of waste water is the wash just prior to the tempering process. The glass must be washed free of all dirt, glass particles and oil from the cutting, seaming and drilling operations. Both once through and recycling washers are used and two or more steps for each recycle. No detergents are used in this washing process. Although air quenching is normally used some operations utilize a water spray. Little if any contaminants are picked up in water spray quenching operations. A study carried out by the effluent guideline contractor indicates there is a considerable range of process waste water flow depending upon the amount of recycling carried out. A typical plant flow is of the order of 49fc/gm (1200 gal/1000 sq ft). Twenty percent of the plants surveyed were discharging to municipal systems. • Plants and Locations It is estimated that there are 13 facilities engaged in tempering and auto- motive back and side lites. There are a large number of additional tempering operations, mostly smaller facilities, that do not participate in the auto- motive market. By and large the principal tempering operations are located 18 ------- in the Midwest in close proximity to the automobile manufacturers. Temper- ing facilities are in many cases integrated with windshield laminators and sometimes contiguous to primary glass manufacturing plants. The effluent guideline development document gives the total U.S.capacity as 95,500 sqM/day (1,050,000 sq ft/day) and the plant sizes ranging from 1,396-24,700 sqM/day (15,000-266,000 sq ft/day). • Number of Employees The total number of employees in all glass tempering operations increased from 17,779 to 18,750 in the period 1967 to 1968; however there was a de- cline to 16,139 in 1970 according to the Tariff Commission Report. Over that same period the output per manhour increased from 29.7 sq ft/hr in 1967 to 32 sq ft/hr in 1970. 5. Shipments and Consumption of Flat Glass Domestic shipments of sheet glass have changed only slightly over the past five years (Table 5), but have lost market penetration. From a level of 1.1 billion square feet in 1968, the shipments of sheet glass have generally moved with the level of residential construction and reached 1.2 billion square feet in 1972. By value, shipments totalled $139 million in 1968 and reached $157 million in 1972. Plate, float, rolled, and wire glass shipments increased from 656 million square feet in 1968 to 1192 million square feet in 1972. (Less than 5% of this total is represented by rolled or wire glass.) The value of shipments also increased substantially from $248 million in 1968 to $393 million in 1972. No breakdowns are available for the shipments of plate as opposed to float glass but the proportion of float has increased from zero in 1964, when it was first introduced to the United States, to a level believed to be about 95% of plate-float production. Table 6 shows the flat glass shipments by U.S. producers in detail for 1972. While sheet glass represented about half of total flat glass on a surface area basis, it was only 32% of total tonnage and 28.6% of value of shipments. Window glass, in single and double strengths, totalled 84% of sheet glass shipments, this proportion increasing gradually over the years as heavy sheet glass is replaced by float. Thin glass has similarly declined and is now only 2% of total sheet glass. 19 ------- TABLE 5 SHIPMENTS OF FLAT GLASS, 1968 - 1972 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Sheet Glass Including Colored, Total Plate, Float, and Rolled and Wire Glass 1000 sq.ft. 1,095,800 1,160,950 1,069,700 1,188,750 1,196,700 Value $1000 139,391 150,123 131,551 150,344 157,222 1000 sq.ft. 656,004 705,244 698,394 943,064 1,191,830 Value $1000 248,078 266,747 253,239 314,330 393,263 Source: U.S.Department of Commerce/Bureau of the Census, Current Industrial Reports (MQ-32A) 20 ------- TABLE 6 Flat Glass, Total Sheet Glass, Total Single Strength, Uncolored Double Strength, Uncolored Heavy Sheet, Uncolored Thin and Tinted or Colored Plate, Float, & Rolled and Wire Glass Plate & Float, not over 1/8" Plate & Float, over 1/8",not over 1/4" Plate & Float, over 1/4" and Rolled and Wire TS BY U.S. PRODUCERS, 1972 Quantity MM sq.ft. 2388.0 1196.7 713.6 292.0 166.8 24.3 1191.3 445.5 % MM Ibs % 100.0 50.0 29.9 12.2 7.0 0.2 50.0 18.7 4422.1 1424.1 849.2 347.5 198.5 28.9 2998.0 726.2 100.0 32.2 19.2 7.9 4.5 0.7 67.8 16.4 659.7 86.1 27.6 3.6 1979.1 292.7 44.8 6.6 Flat Glass, Total Sheet Glass, Total Single Strength, Uncolored Double Strength, Uncolored Heavy Sheet, Uncolored Thin and Tinted or Colored Plate, Float, & Rolled and Wire Glass Plate & Float, not over 1/8" Plate & Float, over 1/8",not over 1/4' Plate & Float, over 1/4" and Rolled and Wire Flat Glass, Total Sheet Glass, Total Single Strength, Uncolored Double Strength, Uncolored Heavy Sheet, Uncolored Thin and Tinted or Colored Plate, Float, & Rolled and Wire Glass Plate & Float, not over 1/8" Plate & Float, over 1/8",not over 1/4" Plate & Float,over 1/4" and Rolled & Wire Source: U.S.Department of Commerce/Bureau of the Census Current Industrial Reports (Series MQ-32A) Value (MM$) 550.5 157.2 90.3 39.5 22.4 5.1 393.3 128.0 224.7 40.6 •e Unit Value (C/lb) 12.4 11.0 10.6 11.4 11.3 17.6 13.1 17.6 11.4 13.9 % 100.0 28.6 16.4 7.2 4.1 0.9 71.4 23.3 40.8 7.4 21 ------- The majority of plate and float glass shipments are between 1/8 inch and 1/4 inch in thickness — 55% on a surface area basis; and 66% by weight. These proportions have remained fairly constant over the past five years and are not expected to change significantly in the near future. Imports of sheet glass were significant during the 1960's and reached a level in 1968 that caused sufficient alarm in the industry for it to seek some form of action by the U.S. Tariff Commission. In that year, sheet glass imports totalled 629 MM pounds, accounting for 32% of U.S. consumption. Imports declined in 1969 and 1970 but then increased in 1971 and 1972 because of the strong residential construction market in the United States, reaching about the same level of 1968. On a square foot basis, sheet glass imports accounted for 40.5% of the U.S. consump- tion in 1972. U.S. imports of plate and float glass also increased gradually in the late 1960's and in 1972 reached a level of 93 MM square feet. This total amounted to 6.4% of apparent U.S. consumption of plate and float glass, below the ratio of 8.2% reached in 1968. Exports of sheet, plate or float glass have not been significant. However, those of plate and float have increased gradually and totalled 66 MM square feet in 1972 — 7 MM square feet of plate glass and 59 MM square feet of float. In Table 7 we show the apparent consumption of flat glass for 1972. This table shows that consumption totalled 2.9 billion square feet in that year and that imports represented an average of 21% of consumption. The overall demand for automotive glass is dictated largely by the level of production of passenger cars and other motor vehicles. Laminated glass, frequently curved, is used exclusively in the windshields of vehicles and solid tempered glass in the side and back lites. As Table 8 shows, the U.S. consumption of automotive glass in 1972 totalled 830 million square feet, or 28% of raw glass consumed. Windshields are manufactured by laminating two thicknesses of raw glass precut to the desired shape; each piece measures from 10 to 14 sq ft in 22 ------- TABLE 7 APPARENT CONSUMPTION OF FLAT GLASS, 1972 (Millions of sq.ft.) Sheet Plate and Float Total Domestic Shipments 1197 1191 2388 Imports 524 93 617 Exports 66 68 Apparent Consumption 1719 1218 2937 Imports as % of Consumption 30.5 6.4 21.0 Source: Contractor estimates, based on Department of Commerce data 23 ------- TABLE 8 U. S. CONSUMPTION OF AUTOMOTIVE GLASS, 1972 Float % MMSF Sheet and Other MMSF Total MMSF OEM 55 630 35 665 Replacement 10 115 50 165 65 745 ** 85 28 830 ** of total raw glass consumed Float glass represents 90% of flat glass consumed in automotive applications Source: Contractor estimates 24 ------- surface area, averaging 11 sq ft. Rear and side windows of tempered glass are 7/32-inch single thickness and measure 8 sq ft and 10 to 12 sq ft, respectively although these surface areas can vary widely according to model and year. Original equipment applications for automotive glass totalled 665 million sq ft in 1972, with replacement units making up the remainder. Original equipment applications are a major user of float glass, taking 55% of total U.S. consumption, with a further 115 million sq ft of float glass going to the replacement market. Approximately 5% of sheet and other types of raw glass are consumed in automotive applications, totaling 85 million sq ft in 1972. On aggregate, automotive applications take 28% of U.S. raw glass consumption. In Table 9 we showed the applications of automotive glass in 1972. We estimate that approximately 530 million sq ft of laminated glass (single thickness) is consumed with about 30% of the laminated units going to the replacement market and the remainder going to original equipment. Of the 300 million sq ft of tempered glass consumed, only 5% is taken for replace- ment applications. Foreign trade in automotive glass, as shown in Table 10, totalled 43.5 million dollars in imports and 39.5 million dollars in exports in 1972. It is esti- mated that approximately half of the imports enter from Canada for use as original equipment in the manufacture of automobiles and are duty-free under the Automotive Products Trade Act of 1965. These entries include float glass shipped to Canada by U.S. producers for processing by their Canadian sub- sidiaries and then returning to the automobile plants in the United States. A large proportion of exports are also finished processed units going to the Canadian assembly and replacement market. Included in the data for tempered glass, both imported and exported, is a certain proportion of architectural glass used for patio doors and other safety applications, but this is believed to be small. 25 ------- TABLE 9 APPLICATIONS OF AUTOMOTIVE GLASS, 1972 (Million Square Feet) Laminated Tempered Total OEM 380 285 665 Replacement 150 15 165 530 300 830 Source: Contractor estimates TABLE 10 FOREIGN TRADE IN AUTOMOTIVE GLASS. 1972 Imports Exports Tempered Laminated MMSF 30.0 - $MM 25.0 18.5 MMSF 20.2 11.7 $MM 17.8 21.8 43.5 31.9 39.5 AVERAGE VALUE ($/SF) Imports Exports Tempered 0.83 0.88 Laminated - 1.85 Source: Department of Commerce Data 26 ------- Future growth in demand for flat glass in the United States is expected to be at the rate of about 4% for building construction applications, slightly below the anticipated growth rate for the Gross National Product, and at about 3% annually for automotive applications. It is estimated that approximately 70% of sheet glass consumption is in windows and other building-related applications and that 30% goes to miscellaneous uses, including some laminating and tempering for automotive applications. Sixty-five percent of plate and float consumption finds use in the auto- motive industry, with the remaining 35% in building construction, furniture and miscellaneous other uses. Thus, the projected demand for sheet glass will probably average about 3.8% annually over the next five years and that for plate and float glass about 3.3%. However, the growth rate of float glass could be considerably faster as plate glass facilities are shutdown and as float glass becomes technologically capable of replacing sheet glass in window applications. Other potential product trends that can be anticipated include a greater proportion of tinted or colored float glass for reflective architectural uses and the increased demand for tempered glass for safety applications in buildings. We have also considered whether the current mood of the automobile consumer in favor of small vehicles in order to save fuel and to minimize on parking problems will effect automotive glass demand. However, we believe that, in the short term, this trend will be served principally by imported vehicles and that the mix of automobile sizes in domestic manufacture will not change appreciably. In fact, our conversa- tions with automotive glass producers shows a short-term trend to larger pieces for basically the same vehicle, reflecting both higher visibility requirements and the impact of the recessed windshield wiper that requires an additional five to six inches of glass below the hood. 6. Segments Likely to be Impacted In consideration of the apparent waste water streams, the initial indications of guidelines and the economic state of the float glass indus- try, some tentative conclusions can be drawn concerning those segments likely to be impacted significantly. 27 ------- Factors completely independent of any impacts of water pollution control appear to be operating within the basic glass manufacturing segments of sheet, plate and float glass. Basically the efficiencies and economics of float glass production are having a considerable effect on the future development of the industry. The future demand for flat glass products will continue to grow at least at a rate of 3.3 - 3.8% per year, a healthy demand situation. The dollar volume of manufacturer shipments has grown at an average rate comparable to the growth rate of the GNP and it would seem unlikely that this relationship would change substantially over the next five years. During the recent growth of the industry, it is important to recognize the interrelationship between the three segments of sheet, plate and float glass. Since the introduction of the float glass process, this technology has rapidly replaced the production of plate glass. Throughout these years the bulk of float glass has been sold to markets formerly served by plate glass. As the technology developed where thinner than 1/4" glass could be produced by float, not only construction markets but the important automotive glass markets switched to float glass. To date the replacement of plate by float glass is essentially complete. The tremendous rapid increase in float capacity in the recent past and new facilities planned in the next two years has raised a question con- cerning the supply/demand of float glass (Table 11). With the replacement of plate glass with float complete it is expected that in the future float glass will penetrate the sheet glass market as well. At least one firm has already announced its intention to use an intermediate quality float glass in the double strength window glass market now served by sheet glass. The investment in float glass facilities by the major producers - ten times more than in sheet and plate facilities combined - seems to substantiate the trend. Thus it would appear that plate glass facilities will continue to be shut- down as new float capacities come on stream. It is unlikely that more than one plate plant will be operating three years from now. The effects on the sheet glass segment will occur at a slower rate and will depend on the rate of market penetration of float into these areas traditionally served by sheet glass. 28 ------- TABLE 11 FLOAT GLASS: SUPPLY AND DEMAND CAPACITY PROJECTIONS (Million Square Feet) 1967 1968 1969 1970 197IE 1972E 1973E 1974E 1975E U.S. Producers' Shipments of Float Glass 243 409 529 669 1040 1200 1470 1800 2050 Year-end Float Glass Capacity 280 600 1160 1730 2100 Source: F.S.Smithers & Co., Inc., estimates ------- By and large the future capacity of the plate and sheet facilities in the United States will probably be governed by economic and marketing factors independent of any impact of water pollution control. However, it is conceivable that additional costs associated with meeting guide- lines could accelerate plant closings particularly in the plate glass segment. As far as effects related to cost of water pollution control, it further appears that the absence of significant contact process water in the man- ufacture of sheet glass indicates that there will not be any significant economic effect of that industry segment. The float glass manufacturing segment has enjoyed good profit margins and as efficiency continues to improve these profit margins are expected to remain high in spite of any price erosion. The relatively minor uses of contact water in the manufacture of float glass are amenable to further processing to meet proposed guidelines. The cost to meet pollution guidelines for the plate glass segment of the industry could be significant and these costs could accelerate decisions to shutdown the remaining facilities. The waste water streams that exist in automotive tempering of glass and laminated windshield fabrication are relatively more difficult to deal with than those involved in primary glass manufacturing and therefore relatively greater impact might be expected. However, these waste water streams appear to be amenable to known treatment technologies. Both the solid tempered and laminated windshield business involve a span of companies ranging from the integrated glass producer to small companies that purchase glass and the magnitude of the impact over the range of companies could be different. 30 ------- II. FINANCIAL PROFILES Table 12 displays the significant financial data for the publicly held U.S. flat and automotive glass producers. Most of these companies are fully integrated, multiproduct and multi-industry participants with sig- nificant positions in the U.S. economy. Glass sales naturally represent a greater proportion of the sales of the smaller companies such as Shatterproof, Guardian and ASG, but is still a significant portion of LOF's and PPG's total business. Data is unavailable for Ford's glass business but is a small proportion of total business both for Ford and for Combustion Engineering. Financial data on private companies (Safetee, Safelite) are also unavailable. Data on the manufacturing costs and profitability of individual facilities is not available, but the data shown in Table 13, computed from information submitted to the U.S. Tariff Commission by the U.S. producers, does indi- cate the level of net operating profit before taxes for sheet, plate and float glass. The relative difference in profitability between sheet, plate, and float glass is dramatically seen in this table. The profitability of sheet glass in the late 1960fs was very low and ranged from a breakeven situa- tion in 1970 to a net profit as a percentage of net sales of 5.9% of net sales in 1969. Plate glass only returned a 5% net profit on net sales in 1970, but this was significantly lower than the 15% to 20% experienced in the three preceding years. Float glass has, in general, been improving its profitability over time. In 1967 the net profit as a percentage of net sales was 28.8%; in 1969, it was 37.2%, and then dropped slightly to 33.4% in a poor demand year. In all cases, operating profits are believed to have increased substantially over the 1970 levels for the years 1971 and 1972. However, sheet glass is still a relatively unprofitable business and speculation is strong that existing facilities will be phased out grad- ually as float capacity comes on stream and as float technology permits the production of thinner glass. 31 ------- TABLE 12 PPG Industries Ford Motor Company Libbey-Owens-Ford American Saint-Gobz Guardian Industries Combustion Engrg. Shatterproof Glass 1972 FINANCIAL DATA - FLAT AND AUTOMOTIVE GLASS MANUFACTURERS ($ Values in Millions) Glass Basis Year Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Oct. for End 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 Net Sales 1395.9 20194.4 594.4 60.7 61.9 1179.9 42.7 Net Earnings 82.7 870.0 52.6 3.5 5.7 39.3(1) 1.1 Working Capital 346.1 1684.5 118.2 19.3 8.4 153.5 13.4 Share- holders ' Equity 731.2 5961.3 352.4 26.0 23.5 295.3 23.1 Return on Equity 11.3 14.6 14.9 13.5 24.3 13.3 4.8 Net Sales 614.2 N.A. 404.2 57.7 53.9 45.0 42.7 Earnings Before Taxes 69.5 N.A. 81.6 6.3 10.8 N.A. 2.0 Glass Sales as % of Total Sales 44.0 N.A. 68.0 95.0 87.0 3.8 100.0 (1) Before extraordinary charges Source: 1972 Company Annual Reports and Contractor estimates ------- TABLE 13 FINANCIAL PROFILE OF OPERATIONS, 1967 - 1970 Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Admin, and Selling Expenses Net Operating Profit before Taxes Net Profit as % of Net Sales Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Admin, and Selling Expenses Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Admin, and Selling Expenses 1967 10.6 9.1 1.2 0.3 2.8 37.8 26.8 3.3 Net Operating Profit before Taxes 7.7 Net Profit as % of Net Sales 20.4 32.9 20.9 2.5 Net Operating Profit before Taxes 9.5 Net Profit as % of Net Sales 28.8 1968 1969 1970 Sheet 10.5 8.7 1.2 0.6 5.7 Plate 38.2 27.4 3.0 7.8 20.4 Float 32.6 17.7 3.2 11.7 35.8 Glass 10. 8. 1. 0. 5. Glass 38. 29. 3. 5. 15. Glass 33. 17. 3. 12. 37. (C/lb) 2 5 1 6 9 (C/SF) 7 6 3 8 0 (C/SF) 3 4 5 4 2 9.6 8.6 1.0 neg/ — 42.1 36.1 3.9 2.1 5.0 31.7 17.5 3.6 10.6 33.4 Source: U.S.Tariff Commission Report No. TEA-1-23; January 1972 33 ------- As most automotive glass producers are integrated concerns or privately held, specific financial data on tempered and laminated glass production is only available from Shatterproof Glass Corporation.. This is shown in Table 12. Integrated producers generally transfer raw glass at a computed market value and, as prices for automotive glass are very com- petitive, processors do not achieve very high levels of profit. In fact, operating losses or a breakdown situation is generally the case with most manufacturers in their process operations. The financial returns of Shatterproof have always been good, reflecting the company's concentration on glass processing, but 1972 profits were less than half the record levels reached in 1971 due to weaker prices, despite a strong market demand. Capital requirements for new float glass facilities will be considerable. In the period, January 1964 to June 1971, the industry expanded $217 MM in new facilities, $171 MM on modifications to existing ones at 12 locations. Since that time an additional 10 lines have been added or will be added by the end of 1974. These lines range in investment from $20 MM to $25 MM, depending on the rated capacity (usually 400 to 600 tons per day) and whether the line is an addition to an existing one or at a completely new facility. It is not inconceivable that at least six of the 12 sheet glass plants presently in operation, and the three plate glass plants, will be closed down within five years as a result of their technology and economics. These closedowns will only be accelerated, and not stimulated, by the potential increases in costs brought about by pollution abatement requirements. 34 ------- III. PRICE EFFECTS The distribution channels discussed earlier help to define various levels of pricing that exist in the marketplace today. Typically, a direct factory buyer will be able to obtain more competitive prices than a pur- chaser who has to obtain his stock from independent glass distributors or from the PPG distribution centers. Nonfactory buyers who have been forced to seek competitive prices have thus examined the imported products. Published price lists for window glass show variations with thickness, size', quality, and packaging of the sheets and it has been calculated that as many as 270 different prices may theoretically be available for combinations of these different specifications. In practice, about one- half of that number is listed and thus no "typical" product combination exists. List prices are the same for the leading producers and are quoted freight prepaid to continental U.S. destinations. Freight ab- sorbed in this way averages seven or eight percent; freight allowances or rebates are allowed for factory pickup and this is estimated to be done in at least 50% of sheet glass shipments. List prices are invariably higher than actual prices paid as discounts are almost always obtainable by purchasers. The level of these dis- counts will vary depending upon the demand conditions existing, but averages have ranged up to 13% in a relatively poor demand year such as 1970 and currently average about 8%. These discounts are also obtain- able on a greater proportion of total shipments in poor years — 27% in 1970 — but typically this proportion would be less than 20%. These proportions are less for plate and float glass as a substantial fraction of shipments of these products are on a negotiated and contract basis directly to OEM customers. Thus, average discounts below published prices are probably no more than five percent currently for plate and float, and are probably given in less than two percent of total shipments, Apart from these differences, product pricing is structured similarly to sheet glass and varies with product form. 35 ------- The prices of automotive glass are negotiated and depend on a variety of considerations, including size and shape of the piece, as well as the volume of order. Prices for original equipment customer are always nego- tiated and, as Ford and Chrysler supply the bulk of their own needs, competition is aggressive for the business of the other automotive manu- facturers and these negotiations can be crucial, although the automobile manufacturer is relatively more concerned with timely delivery and con- sistent quality. Price competition is even more severe in serving the replacement market as a number of functional markups occur before arriving at a retail selling price and price is often the sole criteria on which wholesalers and retailers purchase. Unit prices of sheet glass averaged ll.Oc/lb in 1972 as compared to 13.1C for plate and float and 12.4c for all flat glass. The flat glass wholesale price index, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has moved as follows over the last five years: 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 This index conceals the price drops experienced by sheet glass in 1970 as float and plate prices generally held up. The drop in the index in 1972 probably reflects the effects of the price freeze: and would be contrary to normal expectations in what was a high demand year. Prices have finned and increased since the beginning of Phase III of price controls. Because automotive glass prices are mostly negotiated or heavily discounted, no firm data exists and current net unit values range from $1.50 to $1.90 per sq ft for laminated windshield glass and from $0.50 to $0.75 per sq ft 36 100.0 104.4 109.6 115.6 123.9 122.4 +5.0 +5.5 +7.2 -1.2 ------- for tempered side and rear windows. Average replacement market prices experienced a sharp drop in 1972 because of added processing capacity in the industry. The ability of the flat glass industry to pass on increased cost caused by new pollution abatement requirements would depend upon the product being marketed. It is believed that imported sheet glass re- quires a price advantage of about five percent to be competitive with domestic production; currently the price gap is almost nonexistent because of the strong demand for materials available from any source. Under normal circumstances, therefore, domestic producers could increase the price of sheet glass up to five percent from current levels before losing market share to importers and thus impacting their profitability. The United States is in a strong competitive position relative to imported float and plate glass products. We believe that U.S. producers would not have their sales significantly impacted by price increases of 5% to 10% relative to foreign competition and would still retain attractive returns on investment, but the latter conclusion is merely speculative on the basis of incomplete data. Automotive glass for replacement use is totally price inelastic at the retail level as no competitive material exists, but is very competitive at each level from the fabricator to the retailer; OEM prices are far less competitive. The ability of the processing industry to pass on increased costs, therefore, would depend largely on intraindustry competition and that with importers. Because of the difficulty in serving the replacement market with its wide variety in sizes and styles of glass and because of the stringent delivery requirements of the original equipment manufacturers, imported automotive glass has never been a serious factor in the U.S.market. (This is true with the exception of duty-free imports entering from Canada under the Automotive Products Trade Act of 1965 and destined for original equipment manufacture.) The industry as a whole, therefore, will be able to pass on all costs caused by pollution abatement requirements, although individual companies may be disadvantaged relative to their competitors if they experience disproportionate cost increases. 37 ------- IV. IMPACT ANALYSIS A. Major Segments In Part I of this report the major segments of the flat glass industry were set forth and the product, technology, plant characteristics and other relevant information on each segment detailed. In this section the economic impact of proposed water pollution control requirements and proposed efflu- ent standards on each of these segments will be analyzed. The major segments of the flat glass industry included the three segments of primary glass manufacturing and the two segments related to flat glass fabrication — namely, laminated and tempered automotive glass. In this study the economic impact of the cost of pollution abatement re- quirements was analyzed for three levels of treatment. • Proposed Best Practicable Technology (B.P.T.) currently available - to be met by industrial dischargers by 1977 • Proposed Best Available Technology (B.A.T.) economically achievable - to be met by 1983 • Proposed New Source Performance Standards (N.S.P.S.) - approximately January 1, 1974. The economic impact on each segment of the industry is examined for the above three levels in terms of price effects, profitability, production curtailment, employment effects and related community effects. B. Sheet Glass Manufacturing Segment 1. Best Practicable Technology In the manufacture of sheet glass products, no process waste waters are involved in the process. Therefore, no waste water or waste load should be discharged. In light of these findings in the study by the guidelines contractor, no additional costs are anticipated in sheet glass manufacturing operations and correspondingly there will be no impact on price, profitability, pro- duction curtailment, employment or the community. 38 ------- 2. Best Available Technology Similarly, the lack of waste water streams and the no discharge requirement do not impose any related cost on the industry and therefore no excessive impact can be expected. 3. New Source Performance Standards Requirements for water pollution controls for new sources of sheet glass manufacturing are the same as for B.P.T. and B.A.T. and there- fore no economic impacts are anticipated. C. Float Glass 1. Best Practicable Technology The proposed limits on waste water effluent for float glass manu- facturing plants are given in Table 14 for all three levels of control. For B.P.T. the proposed altenvative involved the elimination of detergents in the washing process. No costs are associated with meet B.P.T. and only a change in plant practice of using detergents is involved. Therefore, no economic effect on price, production, profitability, employment, or the community will result. 2. Best Available Technology The proposed requirement for B.A.T. is a no discharge limit. In Table 15 the cost to meet this limit is minimal, although the exact cost (Alternatives B and C) will depend somewhat on total production of the plant and the degree of dissolved solids buildup. In light of the small incremental cost and the healthy condition of this segment of the industry, no economic impact is anticipated. 3. New Source Performance Standards The proposed limit for new sources of float glass manufacturing is the same as for B.A.T., i.e., no discharge. Considering the substantial investment in new float glass facilities, incremental investments and costs associated with N.S.P.S. limits will not impose any restrictions on future plant construction. 39 ------- D. Plate Glass I. Best Practicable Technology The proposed process waste water limits for plate glass manufac- turing facilities are summarized in Table 14 for a typical plant having an annual production of 150,000 metric tons and a waste water flow rate of 45,900£/MT. The costs to meet the proposed level on limitations are given in Table 2 at ^$33,000/year. a. Price Effects On a unit cost basis the incremental annual cost, 0.01 cents/lb compares to a present selling price of approximately 13 cents/lb for plate glass. This small incremental unit cost will have no impact on the price of plate glass. b. Financial Effects Since the incremental cost of meeting proposed B.P.T. controls is small and may be passed on, the effect on profitability is nonexistent. Other factors have in the past and will in the future have far greater effects on profitability. Plate glass has not remained as a competitive process for producing flat glass. The replacement by float produced glas is about corn- plate and this factor will remain the overriding one in profitability considerations. c. Other Effects At the present time there are only three plants in the United States manu- facturing glass by the plate process. We believe that by 1977 when B.P.T. controls are instituted that at most one plant will be operating. Whether that remaining facility continues operation will certainly depend on other factors than any incremental cost associated with water pollution control. 2^ Best Available Technology While the incremental cost associated with meeting proposed B.A.T. guidelines (Table 15) are larger than those imposed by B.P.T. requirements, they are still modes. Our conclusions as to the economic impact of B.A.T. controls are equally valid and the future of this segment of the industry is highly doubtful for other reasons. 40 ------- 3. New Source Performance Standards No future construction of plate glass facilities is anticipated. E. Solid Tempered Automotive Glass 1. Best Practicable Technology The recommended control technology involves coagulation-sedimen- tation with sludge dewatering by centrifugation. The proposed effluent levels are given in Table 14. The production data (Table 16) is taken from the effluent guideline develop- ment document and an average tempering plant is assumed to have an annual output of 29 million square feet while a typical plant is given as 37.5 million square feet of annual production. In Table 17 we have summarized the required investment and annual operating cost for the associated level of control technology. These data are extracted from Supplement A to the effluent guideline development document. In preparing these economics the contractor considered the age and size of the production facilities as a possible means of subcategorization but concluded that these criteria are not a basis for subcategorization. Thus, we have assumed a straightline relationship between annual cost and plant production output. a. Price Effects The annual operating cost resulting from the recommended B.P.T. control technology will have little or no effect on selling prices of tempered automotive glass. On a unit basis, these annual operating costs total 0.065 cents per sq ft as compared to a current average selling price of 50 cents per sq ft. We conclude that these costs will be passed on by the automotive glass fabricators. b. Financial Effects • Profitability As all anticipated costs will be able to be passed on in the form of price increases, the recommended control and treatment technology will impose no negative effects on current rates of profitability. • Availability of Capital Investment requirements for the typical tempering facility total $81,000 for B.P.T. A comparable fiture for the average plant in operation today 41 ------- is $63,000 while the aggregate industry investment requirement is $560,000. We believe the required capital will be available on a plant-by-plant and company-by-company basis and the industry will in no way have to restrict production or additions to capacity because of capital availability. 2. Best Available Technology The effluent requirements for B.A.T. can be met by technology in- volving the addition of filtration, using oil absorptive diatomaceous earth to B.P.T. technology. The economic cost data to meet B.A.T. requirements for a typical plant are given in Table 17, extracted from Supplement A to the effluent guide- line development document. a. Price Effects The annual operating cost resulting from the recommended B.A.T. control technology will have little or no effect on the selling price of tempered automotive glass. On a unit basis their annual costs are 0.11 cents per sq ft. This annual incremental cost will be passed on by the automotive glass temperers. b. Financial Effects Since the small incremental cost will be passed on there should be no effect on profitability. Investment requirements for B.A.T. control technology are $149,000 for the typical plant; an average plant will have an additional investment of $115,000, while the aggregate industry investment for B.A.T. is $1.03 million. We believe this required capital will be available on a plant- by-plant and company-by-company basis and that capital availability will not affect present production or future expansion. 3. New Source Performance Standards Proposed N.S.P.S. control technology for new sources is identical to proposed B.A.T. controls and therefore the associated cost and related impact will be the same as for B.A.T. 42 ------- F. Laminated Windshield Fabrication 1. Best Practicable Technology The proposed controls for B.P.T. for windshield fabrication in- volve a modification of the post lamination washer sequence to provide a continuously recycling hot water rinse, oil removal by centrifugation of the recirculating hot rinse water, recycling of oil back to the process and treatment of other post lamination rinse water by gravity oil separa- tion. In Table 16 the production data contained in the effluent guideline develop- ment document for a laminating facility are shown. An average laminating plant has an annual capacity of 18.5 million square feet as compared to the assumed typical plant of 8 million square feet. In Table 17 we summarize the required investment and annual operating cost for each level of control technology extracted from Supplement A of the effluent guideline development document. Again, it was concluded by that contractor that plant size and age were not a basis for subcategorization. a. Price Effects The unit cost for meeting the proposed B.P. . control is 0.18 cents per square foot as compared to current manufacturers' selling price of approxi- mately $1.50 per square foot for flat laminated glass and approximately $1.80 per square foot for curved windshields. Thus, we conclude that the cost resulting from the recommended control and treatment technologies will have little or no effect on selling prices. Any incremental cost will be passed on in the form of price increases. b. Financial Effects * Profitability No negative effects on current profitability are anticipated as the small incremental costs will be passed on. • Availability of Capital Investment requirements for a typical laminating facility total $32,000 and for the average plant this figure is $75,000. The aggregate for the 43 ------- automotive laminating industry is $0.8 million to meet the proposed B.P.T. controls. We believe that this capital will be available and will not limit current production or future expansion. 2. Best Available Technology The proposed control technology for B.A.T. includes that imposed by B.P.T. and described above plus oil absorptive diatomaceous earth filtration of the total process waste water discharge and reduction of detergent usage. The related cost data estimated to meet the B.A.T. control is also given in Table 17 for the typical plant. In extrapolating the cost for average plant size and the aggregate industry, we have assumed a straight line relationship between annual operating cost and plant production. a. Price Effects For proposed B.A.T. control, the unit cost for laminated windshields is 0.41 cents per square foot. Compared with current prices of $1.50 per square foot and $1.80 per square foot for present flat and curved lam- inated windshields, these incremental costs are small. We conclude that costs will be passed on. b. Financial Effects There should be no negative effects on present profitability, since the small incremental cost will be passed on. The investment requirements for a typical laminating facility will be $115,000 and for an average plant $266,000. The aggregate automotive laminating industry cost will be $2.9 million. We believe these capital requirements are available. c. Other Effects Based on the conclusions above, no effects are anticipated on production, employment or the local community from the incremental cost of meeting the proposed B.A.T. requirements. 3. New Source Performance Standards The proposed control requirements for N.S.P.S. are identical eith those proposed for B.A.T. and the conclusions of no impact are equally valid. 44 ------- TABLE 14 TENTATIVE EFFLUENT REQUIREMENTS FOR FLAT GLASS INDUSTRY FOR B.P.T.. B.A.T. AND N.S.P.S CONTROLS. (Effluent Flow Based On Typical Plant Size) FLOAT PLATE TEMPERED LAMINATED 'ypical Plant Size f fluent Constituents Flow Suspended Solids Dissolved Solids COD BOD Oil Phosphorous B.P.T. B.A.T. N.S 360,000 Metric Tons (400,000 Tons) 138JI/MT N 0 2g/MT D I 14g/MT s c 2g/MT H A R G E N 0 D I S c H A R G E B.A.T. 150,000 Metric Tons (165,000 Tons) .45Kg/MT .09Kg/MT B.P.T. B.A.T. N.S.P.S. B.P.T. B.A.T. N.S.P.S 3.5 x 106 Sq Meters 750,000 Sq Meters (37.5xl06 Sq Ft) (8.0 x 10° Sq Ft) 45,900&/MT 9,200£/MT 1.38Kg/MT .045Kg/MT 1.22g/sqM 49£/sqM s A M E A S 175£/sqM 175«7sqM S A M 4.4g/sqM .88g/sqM E A S 4.9g/sqM 4.9g/sqM ,73g/sqM .49g/sqM 3. ,64g/sqM .24g/sqM A, 1.76g/sqM .88g/sqM A. T. ,98g/sqM .2g/sqM Source: Zffluent Guideline Development Document ------- TABLE 15 SUMMARY OF INVESTMENT AND ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS ($000's) Float Glass (Typical Plant 400,000 Tons) Investment Operating Cost Capital Depreciation Operating & Maintenance Energy & Power Total Annual Cost Equivalent Unit Cost (C/lb) B.A.T. Alternative B 7 .6 .4 2 .1 3.1 neg C 134 11 6.7 28.4 12.5 58.6 neg Plate Glass (Typical Plant 165,000 Tons) B.P.T. B.A.T. Investment 57 656 Operating Cost Capital 4.6 52.5 Depreciation 2.9 32.8 Operating & Maintenance 22.7 49.7 Energy & Power 2.6 3.5 Total Annual Cost 32.8 138.3 Equivalent Unit Cost (c/lb) 0.01 0.04 Source: Effluent Guideline Development Document 46 ------- TABLE 16 PRODUCTION DATA^- AUTOMOTIVE GLASS PLANTS (Million Square Feet) Laminating Tempering Number of Plants 11 9 Total Industry Capacity 200 260 Average Plant Size 18.5 29.0 Range 1.8 to 42.5 3.8 to 66.5 Assuming 250 days/year of operation Source: Effluent Guideline Development Document 47 ------- TABLE 17 SUMMARY OF INVESTMENTS AND ANNUAL OPERATING COSTS ($000') Tempered Glass (Typical Plant 37.5 MMSF) B.P.T. B.A.T. Alternative B Alternative C Investment 81 149 Operating Costs Capital 6.5 11.9 Depreciation 4.1 7.5 Operating and Maintenance 11.7 17.9 Energy and Power 1.8 4.8 Total Annual Cost 24.1 42.1 Equivalent Unit Cost (C/SF) 0.065 0.110 Laminated Glass (Typical Plant 8.0 MMSF) Investment 32 115 Operating Costs Capital 2.6 9.2 Depreciation 1.6 5.8 Operating and Maintenance 8.0 13.6 Energy and Power 2.4 4.2 Total Annual Cost 14.6 32.8 Equivalent Unit Cost (C/SF) 0.180 0.410 Source: Effluent Guideline Development Document 48 ------- V. LIMITS OF THE ANALYSIS In carrying out our analysis of the economic impact of proposed water pollution controls on the flat glass industry, we have made some general assumptions about the economy. For instance, we have assumed that real growth in Gross National Product will average about 4% per year between 1972 and 1977. We have assumed constant 1973 dollars for all future expenditures, although we recognize that the relative cost of labor, energy, materials and capital may change. Specifically the conclusions in this study are based on the guidelines as proposed in the effluent guideline development document and the asso- ciated technology to meet these limits and the related cost. If the assumptions in deriving these costs or the effluent requirements are changed as to require different technologies, then the conclusions of this study may not necessarily be valid. In our discussion with industry participants we noted that exceptions were taken with the conclusion of the effluent guideline development document relating specifically to laminating facilities, and some companies question whether the proposed control and treatment technologies would achieve the required effluent quality and at the indicated cost. However, these same participants in- dicated that if the control technology and associated cost base proposed were valid that these incremental costs would have no impact on their pres"ent operation or decision to expand. We believe that this analysis as presented represents an accurate de- scription of the economic effect of the cost of pollution on this industry. There are other factors operating within the industry such as the replace- ment of much of the present sheet glass capacity with float that probably are overriding factors in decisions to close certain operations and expand others. 49 ------- |