EPA-230/l-7B-065f
SEPTEMBER  137G
This document has not been
submitted to NTIS, therefore it
should be retained.
             ECONOMIC ANALYSIS  OF
     INTERIM FINAL EFFLUENT  GUIDELINES
                      FOR  THE
         PESTICIDES AND  AGRICULTURAL
      CHEMICALS  INDUSTRY	GROUP II
                        QUANTITY
       U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
            Office of Water Planning and Standards
                  Washington, D.C. 20460
                             \
                             UI
                             o

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  This document is available in limited quantities through the
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Economic Analysis
Staff (WH-586), 401 M Street, S.W., Washington, D.C. 20460.

  This document  will subsequently be available through the
National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22151.

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EPA-230/1-76-065f
        ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF INTERIM FINAL
      EFFLUENT GUIDELINES FOR THE PESTICIDES
    AND AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS INDUSTRY —
                      GROUP II
                       Prepared for

            OFFICE OF WATER PLANNING AND STANDARDS
              ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                   Washington, D.C. 20460
                         under

                    Contract No. 68-01-1541
                     Task Order No. 39
                      September 1976
                                        *****

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This report has been reviewed by the Office of Water Planning and Standards, EPA, and
approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the
views and policies of the Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade
names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.

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                                   PREFACE
     The attached document is a contractor's study prepared for the Office of Water Planning
and Standards of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The purpose of the study is to
analyze the economic impact which could result from the application of alternative effluent
limitation guidelines and standards of performance to be established under sections  304(b) and
306 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, as amended.

     The study supplements the technical study (EPA Development Document) supporting the
issuance of proposed regulations  under sections  304(b) and 306. The Development Document
surveys existing and potential waste treatment control methods and technology within particular
industrial source categories and supports proposal of certain effluent limitation guidelines and
standards of performance  based upon an analysis of the feasibility of these guidelines  and
standards in accordance with the  requirements of sections 304(b) and 306 of the Act. Presented
in the Development Document are the investment and operating costs associated with various
alternative control and treatment technologies. The attached document supplements this analy-
sis by estimating the broader economic effects which might result from the required application
of various control methods and technologies. This study investigates the effect of alternative
approaches in terms of product price  increases, effects upon employment and the continued
viability of affected plants, effects upon foreign trade and other competitive effects.

     The  study has been  prepared with the  supervision and review of the Office of Water
Planning and Standards of EPA. This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 68-01-
1541, Task Order No. 39 by Arthur  D.  Little, Inc. Work on the main report was completed as of
September 1976, and on the supplement as of December 1976.

     This report is being released and circulated at approximately the same time as publication
in the Federal Register  of a notice of interim final rule-making under sections 304(b) and 306 of
the Act for the subject point source category. The study is not an official EPA publication. It will
be considered along with  the information contained in the  Development Document and any
comments  received  by  EPA on either document before or during proposed rule making  pro-
ceedings necessary to establish final regulations. Prior to final promulgation of regulations, the
accompanying study shall have standing in any EPA proceeding or court proceeding only to the
extent that it represents the views of the contractor who studied the subject industry. It cannot be
cited, referenced,  or represented in any respect in any such proceeding as a statement of EPA's
views regarding the subject industry.
                                          ill

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                           TABLE OF CONTENTS

                                                                     Page

List of Tables                                                           vU

1.0    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY                                            1

      1.1    INTRODUCTION                                             1
      1.2    PURPOSE AND SCOPE                                        2
      1.3    PRESCREENING                                             2
      1.4    CHARACTERIZATION OF THE PESTICIDE INDUSTRY            3

            1.4.1    The Manufacturers                                    3
            1.4.2    The Formulators                                      4

      1.5    CONCLUSIONS - ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE
            PESTICIDE MANUFACTURERS                                 4

            1.5.1    Economic Analysis for AH Pesticide Products
                    Based Upon the Farmers' Decision-Making Process           5
            1.5.2    Economic Analysis of Selected Pesticide Products
                    Based on Price and Production Effects                     5
            1.5.3    Technical Analysis                                    6
            1.5.4    Telephone Survey                                     6
            1.5.5    Estimated Cost of Compliance                           7

      1.6    LIMITATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS                              7

2.0    INDUSTRY CHARACTERIZATION                                    9

      2.1    GENERAL PESTICIDE INDUSTRY DESCRIPTION                  9
      2.2    DESCRIPTION OF SUBCATEGORIES OF THE INDUSTRY           9

            2.2.1    Subcategory A — Halogenated Organics                    9
            2.2.2    Subcategory B — Phosphorus-Containing Compounds        17
            2.2.3    Subcategory C — Nitrogen-Containing Compounds          17
            2.2.4    Subcategory D — Metallo-organics                       18
            2.2.5    Subcategory E -  Formulators                          18

      2.3    PRICES BY SUBCATEGORY                                   20

            2.3.1    Structure and Pricing Policy of the Pesticide Industry        20
            2.3.2    Estimated Subcategory Prices                           20

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                    TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)

                                                               Page

3.0    PROPOSED TREATMENT TECHNOLOGY AND ASSOCIATED COSTS     23

      3.1    SUBCATEGORY A                                      23
      3.2    SUBCATEGORY B                                      24
      3.3    SUBCATEGORY C                                      25
      3.4    SUBCATEGORY D                                      25

4.0    PRESCREENING OF ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EFFLUENT GUIDELINES   31

      4.1    PRESCREENING METHODOLOGY                          31
      4.2    ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS                33

5.0    ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE INTERIM FINAL EFFLUENT GUIDE-
      LINES ON THE PESTICIDES INDUSTRY                           35

      5.1    ECONOMIC ANALYSIS                                  35

           5.1.1    Analysis of all Pesticide Products Based Upon the
                  Farmers' Decision-Making Process                    35
           5.1.2   Analysis of Selected Pesticide Products Based
                  on Price and Production Effects                      41

      5.2   TECHNICAL ANALYSIS                                 42

      5.3   TELEPHONE SURVEY                                   44

           5.3.1   Manufacturers                                  44
           5.3.2   Formulators                                    44

      5.4   ESTIMATED COST OF COMPLIANCE                       46

6.0    LIMITATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS                               51

      6.1    TECHNICAL LIMITATIONS                               51
      6.2   ECONOMIC LIMITATIONS                               52


APPENDIX A - INFORMATION ON PESTICIDE MANUFACTURE             53

APPENDIX B - PATENT EXPIRATIONS (1975-1986)                      89

SUPPLEMENT                                                    93

                                 vi

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                             LIST OF TABLES

Table No.                                                            Page
  1.4         Estimated Composition of Pesticide Sales in the
              United States in 1975                                      4

  2.1A       Manufacturers Producing Pesticides in 1974                  10

  2.1B       Total U.S. Pesticide Production - (1960-1974)               12

  2.1C       Estimated Composition of U.S. Pesticide Sales (1975)         13

  2.1D       U.S. Herbicide Production (1960-1974)                      14

  2.1 E       U.S. Insecticide Production (1960-1974)                     15

  2.1 F       U.S. Fungicide Production (1960-1974)                      16

  2.2.1       Halogenated Organic  Pesticide Groupings and Use             17

  2.2.3       Nitrogen Containing Pesticide Groupings and Use             18

  2.3.2       Estimated U.S. Pesticide Subcategory Prices (1975)           21

  3.0A       Effluent Limitations Guidelines — Best Practicable
              Control Technology Currently Available (BPCTCA)
              Pesticides and Agricultural Chemicals Industry                24

  3.4A       Effluent Guidelines Wastewater Treatment Capital
              Investment for Representative Manufacturing Plants
              in the Pesticides and Agricultural Chemicals Industry          26

  3.4B       Effluent Guidelines Wastewater Treatment Costs
              Pesticides and Agricultural Chemicals Industry                27

  3.4C       Comparison of Unit Wastewater Generation Rates             29

  4.2         Information Table — Miscellaneous Chemicals Industry,
              Industry Category — Pesticides                              34

  5.1.1       Input Elements for Decision-Making Regarding
              Pesticide Usage                                            38
                                    VII

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                      LIST OF TABLES (Continued)

Table No.                                                         Page

  5.1.2       Summary of Economic Impact Probabilities Due to
             Added Waste Treatment Costs - Selected Pesticide
             Chemicals                                            43

  5.2        Review of Development Document Information on
             Installed Treatment Vs. BPCTCA Cost Models              45

  5.3.2       Results of the Telephone Survey                          47
                                  VIM

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                    1.0   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1  INTRODUCTION
     This report is one of a series of reports being prepared by Arthur D. Little, Inc. (ADL), for
the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under Contract No. 68-01-1541, Task No. 39. The
overall objective of this task is the determination of the economic impact that the EPA interim
final effluent limitations will  have on eight point-source categories. The EPA has named the
following industries as point-source categories:

     •  Pharmaceuticals (SIC 2831, 2833, and 2834);
     •  Gum and Wood Chemicals (SIC 2861);
     •  Pesticides and Agricultural Chemicals (SIC 2879 and those establishments en-
        gaged in manufacturing agricultural pest control chemicals covered under SIC 281
        and 286);
     •  Adhesives (SIC 2891);
     •  Explosives (SIC 2892);
     •  Carbon Black (SIC 2895);
     •  Photographic Processing (SIC 7221, 7333, 7395, 7819); and
     •  Hospitals (SIC 8062, 8063, and 8069).

     This report on the Pesticides and Agricultural Chemicals Industry is concerned only with
point source dischargers of pesticides (including insecticides, fungicides and herbicides). For this
reason, we will refer only to the Pesticides Industry in the remainder of this report.

     The primary sources of effluent treatment information used to prepare this report were the
Development Document for Interim Final Effluent Limitations Guidelines and Proposed New
Source Performance Standards for the Pesticide Industry,  dated August  1976, with revisions
dated August 16,  1976, and the Draft Development Document for the Agricultural Chemicals
Point-Source Category, dated February 1975, by Roy F. Weston, Inc. In addition to the previously
listed documentation, estimates  of costs required  by  each  plant in the industry to meet the
effluent guidelines are being prepared for  EPA by Environmental Science and Engineering, Inc.
(ESE). The report containing the ESE estimates  is  unfinished. A supplement  to this report
incorporating the ESE estimates will be prepared at a later date.

     The Development Document has broken the Pesticide Industry into five subcategories:

     1. Manufacturers of halogenated organic pesticides — In most cases, the halogen
        component is chlorine. The chlorine groups are generally added via direct chlorina-
        tion or via substitution from another chlorinated organic.
     2. Manufacturers of organo-phosphorus pesticides — This subcategory covers phos-
        phates, phosphonates, phosphorothioates, phosphonothioates, and  phosphorus-ni-
        trogen pesticide types.
     3. Manufacturers of organo-nitrogen pesticides — This subcategory has more family
        groups and is the most diverse of all the pesticide subcategories.
     4. Manufacturers of metallo-organic pesticides.
     5. Formulators.

                                           1

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1.2  PURPOSE AND SCOPE
     The purpose of this report is to assess the economic impact on the Pesticides and Agricul-
tural Chemicals Industry of the cost of meeting the BPCTCA* standards for pollution abatement
applicable to the discharge of water effluents from point sources.

     Compliance with the BPCTCA water  pollution abatement standards  may require the
industry to install new physical facilities in its present operations, modify its current technical
operations, or incorporate specialized facilities in new installations. Eventually, the industry may
have to install equipment and facilities capable of treating effluent water at three levels such
that:

     •  Level I — By 1977, for current industry installations, the BPCTCA is being used to
        control the pollutant content in the streams discharged by the industry;
     •  Level II — By 1983, for current industry installations, the best available technology
        economically achievable (BATEA) is being similarly used; and
     •  Level III — New source performance standards (NSPS) for new industry installa-
        tions discharging directly  in navigable waters that will be constructed after the
        promulgation of applicable guidelines for water pollution abatement; facilities will
        be incorporated that will be capable  of meeting these guidelines.

     This report presents the results of a prescreening  process and further technical and eco-
nomic analyses applied to the manufacturers of pesticides to determine the economic impact of
the proposed BPCTCA effluent limitations.

1.3  PRESCREENING
     As the first step in  our prescreening procedure, we developed methodologies for selected
segments  of the eight industries studied under this contract, to aid our industry  experts in
selecting those  industry  categories or subcategories that would probably not be significantly
impacted by the Interim Final Effluent Guidelines.

     ADL industry experts initiated the project by studying the Development Document, com-
piling prescreen information, and preparing  statements on factors which they believed  would
have  an economic impact on the industry. To aid them in preparing their comments, the ADL
experts used a table which described the information to be covered, and they completed the table
with brief descriptions. In preparing their comments and completing the information table, the
industry experts based their comments only on their own personal knowledge, or information they
could readily retrieve, as directed. This limitation was  invoked to prevent  an excessive  use of
available resources in conducting the prescreen exercise. The completed information tables and
the accompanying industry expert comments are contained in Table 4.2 in this report.
•Best practicable control technology currently available.

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     To  determine which industry subcategories we  could  recommend for elimination from
further economic impact study, we analyzed the information of the industry experts against
several criteria. If an industry subcategory met any one (or a combination) of these criteria, we
considered its elimination. The criteria:

     1. The industry subcategory was generating no wastewater.
     2. The ratio of BPCTCA* plus BATEA** to selling price was less than 2% and/or the
        ratio of BPCTCA plus BATEA to profits was less than 15%.
     3. Practically  all of the plants in  the subcategory were currently discharging into
        municipal sewage systems and would  continue to  do so with little or no pre-
        treatment costs incurred.
     4. The treatment facilities recommended in the Development Document had already
        been installed in practically all of the plants of the subcategory.

     The prescreen indicated that all the subcategories of pesticide manufacture that do dis-
charge wastewater might be adversely affected by the proposed standards. Thus further analysis
was required.

1.4  CHARACTERIZATION OF THE PESTICIDE INDUSTRY
     The pesticide  industry is a major  sector of the U.S. Chemical  Industry with 1975 sales
exceeding $2160 million (manufacturers' value). Table  1.4 summarizes pesticide sales in 1975.
The major market for pesticides in the United States is agriculture which we estimate consumes
more than 90% of the pesticides used in the country.

     Pesticides are usually  classified as herbicides,  fungicides,  or insecticides. Virtually all
domestic  production of pesticides falls within these three  classes, although small amounts of
rodent- and bird-control materials are also produced.

1.4.1  The Manufacturers
     Between 1970  and 1974 the quantity of pesticides produced more than doubled, and the
manufacturers' value of pesticide production increased by more than fourfold. The largest single
component of U.S. pesticide production  is herbicides which account for about 60% of the total
pesticide value. During the 1960's herbicide production experienced considerable growth. How-
ever, since 1968 pesticides and fungicides have shown faster growth rates.

     A relatively small number of firms  is involved in the manufacture of pesticides,  but they
manufacture  a wide variety of products.  Of these firms, we estimate that the 10 largest account
for about 75% of total U.S. pesticide sales.

     The  companies which dominate the pesticide industry,  for the most part, achieved their
position through the sale of proprietary products. Industry observers estimate that the relative
profitability (per sales dollar) of proprietary products is normally at least double that for products
which do not  have patent protection.
 *Best Practicable Control Technology Currently Available.
"Best Available Technology Economically Achievable.

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                                      TABLE 1.4

                     ESTIMATED COMPOSITION OF PESTICIDE SALES
                             IN THE UNITED STATES IN 1975

                 	Volume	    Manufacturers' Value*   Average Price
        Class      Metric Tons   Million Lb    Percent    Million $     Percent    $/kg    $/lb

     Herbicides     281,000        620        43       1,350         63     4.80    2.18
     Insecticides    299,000        660        46        650         30     2.16    0.98
     Fungicides      77,000        170        11        160          7     2.07    0.94
                  657,000       1,450       100       2,160        100

     "Represents the value of active ingredients at the manufacturer's level.

     Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates based on U.S. Department of Commerce data.

1.4.2  The Formulators
     The formulators are difficult  to characterize with any degree of accuracy. There are many
small formulators for whom statistics are not readily available. Midwest Research Institute has
indicated that there are 5300 plants manufacturing pesticide formulations. However, the 1972
Census of Manufactures shows only 388 establishments whose primary business is in SIC 2879,
the SIC  category covering pesticide formulators. Economic data specific to the  formulator
segment of the industry are virtually nonexistent, because pesticide manufacturing and formulat-
ing are often intertwined, both physically and financially.

1.5  CONCLUSIONS — ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE PESTICIDE
     MANUFACTURERS
     The prescreen exercise indicated that there was a possibility of significant impact to each
subcategory of the pesticide industry if the Development Document treatment costs were in-
curred. To  determine whether  there would indeed be  a significant impact to the industry, we
undertook four tasks:

     1)  examined the farmers' decision-making process for purchasing pesticides;
     2)  examined price and production  effects that the proposed standards might have on
        20  representative pesticides if the  Development Document treatment costs were
        incurred;
     3)  evaluated the technology presently installed; and
     4)  surveyed pesticide  manufacturers  and formulators (by telephone) to determine
        their present effluent treatment practices.

     We selected the 20 representative products used for the examination of price and production
effects on a subjective basis. We  believe they reflect a broad spectrum of the  chemical sub-
categories,  product cost, pesticidal action,  proprietary status, and  market environment.  The
representative products have annual sales  volumes substantially above the industry average.
Selection of such products was necessary to ensure that adequate economic data were available
for the impact analyses.

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     We based our economic analysis heavily on the cost estimates presented in the Development
Document, and we developed those estimates using a "model plant" approach. The model does
not consider the fact that some of.the required treatment measures are now in place. Thus, in
terms of industry-wide treatment costs, the use of the Development Document cost model results
in an overestimation. Because the cost model overestimates treatment costs, EPA commissioned
an estimation of the plant-by-plant costs that would be incurred in meeting the effluent guide-
lines. The plant-by-plant estimates were not available for inclusion in this report. Consequently,
they will be covered in a supplement to this report when they become available.

1.5.1  Economic Analysis for All Pesticide Products
       Based  Upon the  Farmers' Decision-Making  Process
     The conclusions we reached by examining how farmers make decisions concerning pesticide
use are:

     •  There is no "typical" farmer with respect to decisions regarding pesticide usage.
        Thus, while generalizations are possible for specific compound use/crop situations,
        generalizations are seldom valid for agriculture as a whole.
     •  The principal  determining factor as to the extent and manner in which a farm
        enterprise employs pesticides  is the potential  or expected increase in income
        resulting from chemical treatment.
     •  Three  factors  tend to  influence  a farmer's decision as to how he will employ
        pesticides: (1) the  level of pesticide price increase; (2) the presence and degree of
        any crop price change; and (3) the efficacy of the control compound,  i.e., the
        marginal yield-response relationship for each unit of pesticide input.
     •  If crop  prices remain relatively stable, a small increase in pesticide price is unlikely
        to cause any shift in usage patterns since benefits from control generally far exceed
        costs.
     •  Crop prices have not been relatively stable, but in some instances they have been
        decreasing. For example, the price of corn has fallen, and this drop has resulted in
        the yield increase attributable to the use of herbicides  being worth less than the
        cost of treatment.
     •  Continued increases in pesticide prices in the face of stabilizing, or even falling,
        crop prices are causing more and more farmers  to reexamine their position with
        respect to pesticide use. Additional increases in pesticide prices will further antag-
        onize the worsening cost benefit situation of pesticide control programs for many
        crops.  A consequence  of this will be a search for cheaper alternative  pesticide
        programs by many farmers.

1.5.2  Economic Analysis of Selected Pesticide  Products
       Based  on Price and  Production Effects
     The conclusions we reached from examining price and production effects include:

     •  In each subcategory, there is a likelihood of a significant impact on  small plants
        producing low-price pesticides.

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     •  The competitive situations in major markets tend to be stringent. In all cases,
        alternate pesticide products or pest control techniques are available to users of the
        products studied. In only one case (MSMA) did a product have near total domi-
        nance of the competitive environment in the product's major market observed.
     •  The marginal benefits associated with pest control in the major markets are in all
        cases favorable. Users of the products are aware of their benefits.
     •  The ability to  pass  production cost increases  through to pesticide  consumers
        appears to be a function of the competitiveness of the market.  In cases where
        strong competition for a crop/pest market was observed, pricing flexibility was
        decreased.
     •  The most important factor affecting potential economic impact appears to be the
        proprietary status of the product. Of the 10 non-proprietary products studied, we
        judged eight products to be susceptible to medium or high impact. Some of the
        reasons for this susceptibility are: (1) the presence of a single dominant firm in the
        industry and a number of smaller firms likely to be impacted through lack  of
        pricing flexibility; (2) the presence of competition  from strong non-U.S. produc-
        ers; and (3) sales of low-price products in extremely price-sensitive markets.

     The significance of the high impact on non-proprietary compounds is likely to increase. We
estimate that there are 300 major pesticide products and that one-third of the products now have
proprietary status. In the near future, many products will lose their patent protection.

1.5.3  Technical Analysis
     We attempted to compare  the existing treatment with the treatment methods used in
developing the BPCTCA cost models. Of all the plants in categories A, B, C, and D discussed in
the Development Document, not one has installed all the treatment steps  included  in the
respective BPCTCA cost models. In fact, the majority of the plants had treatment systems that
were far less complex than those upon which the Development Document cost models were based.

1.5.4  Telephone Survey
     At the beginning of this study, we conducted an informal telephone survey of pesticide
manufacturers and formulators. Survey results showed that no formulators and only one pesticide
manufacturer did not meet the guidelines then being proposed. Subsequent to the survey, the
proposed BPCTCA standards for  manufacturers were changed, but no changes were made in the
standards for formulators. The addition of a COD requirement and total pesticides requirement
were the two  major changes made to the standards for manufacturers.  A treatment system
presently  meeting a BOD standard will not necessarily be able to meet  a COD requirement.
Meeting BOD and COD requirements simultaneously in many instances  involves one step for
removing  BOD and another step for removing COD. Control  of total pesticides requires addi-
tional treatment steps and complicated chemical analyses to assure compliance.

     We believe that the changes in the effluent standards for manufacturers have invalidated
the findings of our original telephone survey. If actual plants incur costs that are similar to those
presented for  the model plants in the Development Document for achieving the  BPCTCA
standards, it is possible that compliance with the standards could cause substitutions and other
impacts to the manufacturers. This possibility is more likely for small plants manufacturing low-
price pesticides.

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     While this survey is being completed, we were preparing a plant-by-plant estimation of
BPCTCA  costs. The results of this  estimation  may  permit refinement of the preceding
conclusions.

1.5.5  Estimated Cost of Compliance
     The costs in the Development Document, based on a model plant approach, were intended
for use in  a microeconomic impact analysis of the effluent guidelines. They do not permit an
estimate of the total capital and  operating  costs  that the industry will actually incur. As
mentioned previously, ESE is preparing an estimate of actual  plant-by-plant costs. This esti-
mate, however, is not presently available. Consequently, the estimated cost of compliance will be
covered in a supplement to this report.

1.6  LIMITATIONS OF  THE ANALYSIS
     When we completed our initial analysis  in April 1976, we concluded that the BPCTCA
standards  being proposed at that time would  not have a measurable economic impact on the
manufacturers of pesticides. Subsequent to the analysis, however, a new  Development Docu-
ment, dated July 6,1976, was prepared. Revisions to this document, dated August  16,1976, were
made. The differences between the old and new Development Documents and our earlier infor-
mation invalidated our initial findings, as they  were made on different bases.

     Thus, the analysis described in this report had to be qualitative in nature. Quantitative
determination of the price and  output effects of compliance costs requires data that are not
available.  One type of data required is the estimated plant-by-plant costs required to meet the
BPCTCA standards. These data are presently being prepared by ESE and will be incorporated
into a supplement to this report which will be prepared at a future date.

     While making  the economic  assessment discussed in this  report, we identified certain
deficiencies and omissions  in the cost models.  These placed further limitations on the analysis
discussed in this report. Among the technical areas which have contributed to the limiting of the
economic analysis are:

     1)  Effluent loadings from the production of pesticide intermediates are not taken into
        account. Taking these effluents into account will tend to lower the treatment costs
        shown in the treatment cost models.
     2)  Simultaneous standards for BOD and COD, as  well as the inclusion of a  "total
        pesticides" effluent requirement, impose different treatment requirements for indi-
        vidual plants within a subcategory. Therefore, to make a meaningful  estimate of
        BPCTCA treatment costs necessitates a  plant-by-plant assessment  of required
        wastewater treatment steps and  their associated costs instead of a model plant
        approach.
     3)  The analytical costs that would be incurred in meeting the  BPCTCA standards
        ought to be included. Complicated chemical analyses are required to assure com-
        pliance with the BPCTCA standard for total pesticides.

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          2.0    INDUSTRY  CHARACTERIZATION
2.1.    GENERAL PESTICIDE INDUSTRY DESCRIPTION
     In 1974, 82 companies reported the manufacture of pesticides to the U.S. International
Trade  Commission (Table 2.1 A).  Not  all of those companies manufactured large volumes of
pesticides  and not all of the  pesticides manufactured were covered by the proposed effluent
guidelines. The pesticides manufacture reported to the Commission included inorganic chemicals
with  pesticide applications and organic reagents, such as methyl bromide, which are sometimes
used as a pesticide.

     The Pesticide Industry, with 1975 sales in excess of $2160 million (manufacturers' value), is
a major sector of the U.S. Chemical Industry. The major market for pesticides in the United
States  is agriculture. We estimate that more than 90% of all pesticides consumed domestically
are used for the protection of agricultural products.

     The most common categorization of pesticides  is by type of pest controlled, viz., weeds,
insects, fungal diseases, etc. Three classes of products — herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides
(including nematocides and acaracides) — compose virtually all domestic pesticide production,
although small amounts of rodent and bird control materials are also produced.

     The physical volume of pesticide  production more than doubled between 1960 and  1974.
During the same period, the manufacturers' value of this production increased by  more than
400%. Historical information on U.S. pesticide production, value, and average price are presented
in Table 2.IB.

     The largest single component of U.S. pesticide production in terms of value is herbicides.
Herbicides, with an average manufacturer's price of $4.80/kg ($2.18Ab), accounted for about 60%
of total pesticide value in 1975, while  providing less than 45% of pesticide poundage. The relative
importance of the three product classes is given in Table 2.1C.

     The proportionate value of these  components has changed considerably since 1960 with
herbicide production exhibiting dramatic growth during the 1960's. Since 1968, however, both
insecticides and fungicides have exhibited a greater annual growth rate in sales than herbicides.
Historical production and value data for herbicides, insecticides and fungicides is presented in
Tables  2.1D, 2.1E, and 2.1F.

2.2  DESCRIPTION OF SUBCATEGORIES OF THE INDUSTRY

2.2.1   Subcategory A  — Halogenated Organics
     The Roy F. Weston, Inc. (Weston) report identified 98 products as members of this sub-
category. The subcategory was further broken down into five groups. A listing of these groups and
the major use of the products within the groups are given in Table 2.2.1.

     The halogenated organic compounds cover the entire spectrum of pesticide usage, as the
information presented in Table  2.2.1 indicates. Several of the more significant compounds (in
terms of volume and/or value) in this subcategory are listed therein. The compounds marked with
an asterisk were  selected as  being  representative of the subcategory and were used in the
economic impact analysis of the proposed standards on the subcategory. Data on those  com-
pounds are presented in Appendix  A.

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                                         TABLE 2.1A

                      MANUFACTURERS PRODUCING PESTICIDES IN 1974
            Name of Company
            Name of Company
Abbott Laboratories
Allied Chemical Corp., Union Texas
 Petroleum Div., Agricultural Dept.
American Cyanamid Co.
Alco Chemical Corp.
Alpha Laboratories, Inc.
Amchem Products, Inc.,
 Div. of Rorer-Amchem, Inc.
Kerr-McGee Chemical Corp.
Arapahoe Chemical, Inc. Sub. of
 Syntex Corp. (U.S.A.)
Ashland Oil, Inc., Ashland
 Chemical Co. Div.
Ansul Chemical Co.
Buckman Labs., Inc.
Interstab Chemical,  Inc.
Ciba-Geigy Corp.,
 Ciba Agricultural Co.
Chemical Formulators,  Inc.
Mobay Chemical Corp., Chemagro Agricultural
 Div.
W.A. Cleary Corp.
Upjohn Co., Fine Chemical Div.
Diamond Shamrock Corp.
Dow Chemical Co.
E.I. duPont de Nemours & Co., Inc.
E.F. Houghton & Co.
Eagle River Chemical Corp.
Ferro Corp., Ferro Chemical Div.
FMCCorp.:
 Agricultural Chemical  Div.
 Industrial Chemical Div.,
  Organic Business Group
Fairmount Chemical Co.
Vulcan Materials, Co., Chemical Div.
GAF Corp., Chemical Div.
Gulf Oil Corp., Gulf Oil
 Chemical Co.-U.S.
Guth Chemical Co.
Great Lakes Chemical Corp.
Hooker Chemicals & Plastics Corp.
Tenneco Chemicals, Inc.
Hercules, Inc.
Lakeway Chemicals, Inc.
Eli Lilly & Co.
Mallinckrodt Chemicals Works
Michigan Chemical Corp.
Millmaster Onyx Corp., Millmaster Chemical
 Co. Div.,  Berkeley Chemical Dept.
Mooney Chemical Corp.
McLaughlin, Gormley & King Co.
Monsanto Co.
Motomoco, Inc.
Merck & Co., Inc.
Morton Chemical Co. Div. of Morton-Norwich
 Products, Inc.
Montrose Chemical Corp. of California
Nease Chemical Co., Inc.
Nalco Chemical Co.
Niklor Chemical Co.
Olin Corp.
Chevron Chemical Co.
Story Chemical Corp.
Pennwalt Corp.
Pfister Chemical, Inc.
CPC Internationa!, Inc.,  Penick Div.
Pfizer, Inc.
Pierce Organics, Inc.
Phillips Petroleum Co.
PPG Industries, Inc.
Pike Chemicals, Inc.
Reichhold  Chemicals, Inc.
Rhodia, Inc.
Rohm & Haas Co.
Riverdale Chemical Co.
R.S.A. Corp.
Sandoz Corp., Crop Protection  Dept.
Sobin Chemical Co.
Stauffer Chemical Co.:
 Agricultural Div.
 Calhio Chemicals, Inc. Div.
Shell Oil Co., Shell Chemical Co. Div.
Mobil Oil Corp., Mobil Chemical Co. Div.
Thompson-Hayward Chemical Co.
Troy Chemical Corp.
Union Carbide Corp.
Universal Oil Products Co., UOP Chemical
 Div.
Uniroyal, Inc., Chemical Div.
                                              10

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                              TABLE 2.1A (Continued)

  Name of Company                                    Name of Company

Vinings Chemical Co.                            Vanderbilt Chemical Corp.
Velsicol Chemical Corp.                          Vicksburg Chemical Co. Sub. of Vertac
Vineland Chemical Co.                            Consolidated
                                              Witco Chemical Co., Inc.


Source:  U.S. International Trade Commission.
                                       11

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                                    TABLE 2.1B

                  TOTAL U.S. PESTICIDE PRODUCTION1 (1960-1974)
                          Volume
1. Herbicides, Insecticides, Fungicides.
2. Manufacturers' value.
3. Estimates.

Source:  U.S. Tariff Commission and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.

                                        12
Average Price
Year
1960
1961
X
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
19743
Annual
)-1968
M974
Metric Tons
295,000
318,000
332,000
347,000
356,000
399,000
460,000
477,000
542,000
502,000
470,000
516,000
526,000
585,000
642,000
Growth (%)


Million
Ib.
648
700
730
764
783
877
1,013
1,050
1,192
1,104
1,034
1,135
1,157
1,289
1,415

8
2
Value2
Million $
306
366
458
453
513
607
761
988
1,138
1,113
1,087
1,276
1,313
1,453
1,950

18
6
$/kg
1.03
1.14
1.39
1.30
1.45
1.52
1.65
2.07
2.09
2.22
2.31
2.46
2.49
2.49
3.04



S/lb
0.47
0.52
0.63
0.59
0.66
0.69
0.75
0.94
0.95
1.01
1.05
1.12
1.13
1.13
1.38

9
3

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                                                             TABLE 2.1C
                                     ESTIMATED COMPOSITION OF U.S. PESTICIDE  SALES (1975)

                                                                                 Manufacturer's Value*
   Class              Metric Tons          Million             Percent            Million $
                                            Ib.
Herbicides              281,000              620                43               1,350


Insecticides             299,000              660                46                 650


Fungicides               77,000              170                11                 160
                       657,000            1,450               100               2,160
*Represents the value of active ingredients at the manufacturer's level.
Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates, based on U.S. Department of Commerce data.
Percent
   63
   30
  100
                     Average Price
$/kg
4.80
2.16
                   2.07
$/lb
2.18
0.98
               0.94

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                                   TABLE 2.1D

                     U.S. HERBICIDE PRODUCTION (1960-1974)

                        Volume
 *Manufacturers' value.
**Estimates.
Average Price
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974**
Annual
3-1968
5-1974
Metric Tons
47,000
55,000
69,000
80,000
103,000
120,000
147,000
1 86,000
213,000
179,000
184,000
195,000
205,000
225,000
239,000
Growth (%)


Million
Ib.
103
121
151
175
226
263
324
409
469
393
404
429
451
496
525

21
2
Value*
Million $
79
113
147
166
243
302
386
617
718
662
663
800
816
844
925

32
4
$/kfl
1.69
2.05
2.13
2.09
2.38
2.53
2.62
3.32
3.37
3.70
3.61
4.09
3.98
3.74
3.87



$/lb
0.77
0.93
0.97
0.95
1.08
1.15
1.19
1.51
1.53
1.68
1.64
1.86
1.81
1.70
1.76

9
2
Sources: U.S. Tariff Commission and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
                                        14

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                                   TABLE 2.1 E

                    U.S. INSECTICIDE PRODUCTION (1960-1974)
Volume
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974**
Annual
3-1968
3-1974
Metric Tons
166,000
187,000
210,000
217,000
202,000
223,000
251,000
225,000
259,000
260,000
223,000
254,000
256,000
290,000
302,000
Growth (%)


Million
Ib.
366
411
461
478
444
490
552
496
569
571
490
558
564
639
665

6
3
Value*
Million $
157
193
258
234
219
248
317
304
347
383
340
393
406
495
550

10
8
Average Price
$/kg
0.95
1.03
1.23
1.08
1.08
1.12
1.25
1.34
1.34
1.47
1.52
1.54
1.58
1.69
1.83



$/lb
0.43
0.47
0.56
0.49
0.49
0.51
0.57
0.61
0.61
0.67
0.69
0.70
0.72
0.77
0.83

4
5
 *Manufacturers' value.
** Estimates.
Sources:  U.S. Tariff Commission and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
                                        15

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                                   TABLE 2.1 F

                    U.S. FUNGICIDE PRODUCTION (1960-1974)
Volume
Year
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974**
Annual
D-1968
B-1974
Metric Tons
82,000
76,000
54,000
50,000
51,000
56,000
62,000
65,000
70,000
64,000
64,000
68,000
65,000
70,000
73,000
Growth (%)


Million
Ib.
180
168
118
111
113
124
137
144
154
141
140
149
143
154
160

-2
1
Value*
Million $
70
60
53
53
51
58
60
66
72
68
71
82
92
114
125

<1
10
Average Price
S/kg
0.86
0.79
0.99
1.06
0.99
1.03
0.97
1.01
1.03
1.06
1.12
1.21
1.41
1.63
1.72



S/lb
0.39
0.36
0.45
0.48
0.45
0.47
0.44
0.46
0.47
0.48
0.51
0.55
0.64
0.74
0.78

2
9
 'Manufacturers' value.
"'Estimates.

Sources: U.S. Tariff Commission and Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
                                        16

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                                      TABLE 2.2.1

                HALOGENATED ORGANIC PESTICIDE GROUPINGS AND USE


            Group                Compound                     Use

             A1              DDT*                      Insecticide
                             Dithiocarbamates             Fungicide
                             Methoxychlor               Insecticide

             A2              2,4-D                      Herbicide
                             2,4,5-T*                    Herbicide
                             MCPA                      Herbicide

             A3              Toxaphene                  Insecticide
                             Chlordane/heptachlor         Insecticide
                             Endrosulfan                 Insecticide
                             Endrin                      Insecticide

             A4              Methyl bromide              Fumigant (insects,
                                                            weeds, rodents,
                                                            etc.)
                             Lindane                    Insecticide

             A5              Dicamba*                   Herbicide
                             Amiben*                   Herbicide
                             Propanil                    Herbicide

            * Representative of the subcategory and used in the economic impact analy-
             sis of the prepared standards on this subcategory.

2.2.2   Subcategory B  — Phosphorus-Containing Compounds
     Ninety-three pesticide compounds were identified by Weston as belonging to this sub-
category. Although Weston further categorizes phosphorus compounds, in general it can be stated
that the  major  use  of the phosphorus-containing compounds is insecticidal. The compounds
below marked with an asterisk were selected as being representative of the subcategory and were
used in the economic impact analysis of the proposed standards on this subcategory. Data on
them are presented in Appendix A. Some of the widely used compounds within this subcategory
are listed herein.

          Methyl parathion*                 Guthion
          Fenthion*                        Malathion*
          Ronnel                            Disulfoton
          Diazinon*

2.2.3   Subcategory C  — Nitrogen-Containing Compounds
     The 209 compounds Weston identified as  being in this subcategory were subdivided into
seven groups. The groupings and primary uses  of the products in these groupings are given in
Table 2.2.3.
                                          17

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     This subcategory contains some of the largest selling pesticide products in terms of value in
the United States. Among these "high sales" compounds are: Barban, Carbofuran, Carbaryl,
Butylate,  EPTC, Alachlor, Linuron, Atrazine, Bladex and Trifluralin. All of these compounds,
except Carbaryl, are herbicides. With the exception of phenoxy herbicides and some other minor
products,  all the significant herbicides used in the United States belong to this subcategory. In
addition,  a limited number of significant fungicide and insecticide products are among  the
nitrogen-containing compounds.

     For evaluating the  economic impact of the proposed standards,  Barban, Linuron, and
Captan were selected as being representative of the subcategory, and  data  on  them are also
presented in Appendix  A.
                                       TABLE 2.2.3

                  NITROGEN CONTAINING PESTICIDE GROUPINGS AND USE


                        Grouping                         Primary Use

               CD  Aryl and alkyl carbonates           Insecticides, herbicides

               C2)  Thiocarbamates                   Herbicides

               C3)  Amides and amines                 Herbicides

               C4)  Ureas and uracils                  Herbicides

               C5)  s-Triazines                        Herbicides

               C6)  Nitro compounds                  Herbicides

               C7)  Other                            Fungicides, herbicides
 2.2.4   Subcategory D  — Metallo-organics
      Of those considered, this subcategory is the smallest in both volume and value of pesticide
 sales. The metallic compounds included in this category are primarily fungicides and herbicides,
 although compounds with acaracidal action are also produced. The products MSMA and Plictran
 were selected as case study subjects.

 2.2.5   Subcategory E  — Formulators
      Pesticide formulation is difficult to characterize with any degree of accuracy. There are a
 large number of small formulators for whom  statistics are not readily available. According to
 Midwest Research Institute, there are presently 5300 plants involved in pesticide formulations.
 However, the 1972 Census of Manufactures shows only 388 establishments whose primary busi-
 ness is in SIC 2879, the SIC category covering pesticide formulators.
                                           18

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     Companies owning pesticide formulation plants range in size from those having only one or
two registrations to those having hundreds. Plants in the formulation industry fall into one of the
following three categories: (1) the pesticide producer and formulator, (2) the independent for-
mulator, and/or (3) the small packager. However, for the purpose of establishing effluent guide-
lines, the Development Document groups all formulating and related activities, such as blending,
packaging, canning, etc., into a single subcategory. It is also important to recognize that in the
assembly of economic data for the Pesticides Industry a sharp distinction is not always made
between the actual manufacturer of the active ingredient and the formulator who provides the
finished product. Formulators are sometimes treated as pesticide manufacturers, in that they
"manufacture" the finished product. Thus, there is some overlap in terminology.

     The independent formulator typically formulates a number of products which he markets
under his own brand, although he may also formulate products under a contractual arrangement
for a manufacturer. He often manufactures the contracted products under the manufacturer's
brand. The reason for contract formulation is that a number of large pesticide manufacturers do
not formulate any of their own products.

     The small packager  typically produces one to five formulations which he markets under his
own  brand. Pesticide formulation often represents only a small  portion of his business, and
sometimes small packagers will contract an independent formulator to do their formulation work.

     A  formulator takes technical-grade, pesticide-active ingredients, dilutes them, and trans-
forms them into  a usable form. The dilution is  carried out by combining the  technical-grade
pesticides with an inert  material. For efficacy reasons, a pesticide formulation will often be
composed of more than one type of active ingredient. For example, many formulations often
combine methyl parathion with toxaphene. In its final physical form, a formulation can be an
emulsifiable concentrate, a powder, a dust, or granules.

     Emulsifiable concentrates are combinations of technical-grade pesticides and emulsifiers in
a solvent. The emulsifiable concentrate formulations are always diluted with water or oil before
application. Emulsifiable concentrates usually contain 15% to 50% concentrations of the  techni-
cal-grade pesticide, although  they can contain up to an 80% concentration of pesticide material
when combinations of different technical-grade materials are used.  The concentration of emulsi-
fiers is  usually 5% or  less. Typical solvents  used  to  make emulsifiable concentrates include
xylenes, methyl isobutyl ketone, and deodorized kerosene.

     Powders are a mixture of pesticide, inert  carriers, and adjuvants that are mixed with water
by the user before application. The powders usually contain a concentration of 15% to 95% of the
technical-grade pesticide  and a concentration of 1% to 5% surfactant to improve wettability and
suspendability.

     Dusts are formulations which contain a relatively low  concentration of the  technical-grade
pesticide absorbed onto an inert powder. While the toxicity of dusts is low, they  are relatively
inexpensive and  simple  to apply. However,  their use is  becoming less common  because  of
problems caused by the ease with which they can  be blown away by the wind.

     Granules are similar to dusts and are formed by impregnating the technical-grade material
onto granular carriers. Common carriers  include  clay, vermiculite, sand, carbon, and  dia-
tomaceous earth.  The content of fine particles is  minimized to prevent the problems that occur
with the use of dust.

                                           19

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2.3   PRICES BY SUBCATEGORY
     The diversity of the pesticide industry makes calculation of representative prices for prod-
ucts within each subcategory difficult. In the following section of the report, the structure of the
Pesticide Industry and pesticide pricing policy are described. These descriptions will  help the
reader to consider our price estimates in perspective.

2.3.1   Structure and Pricing Policy of the Pesticide Industry
     The Pesticide Industry is composed of a relatively small number of firms which produce a
wide variety of products, numbering approximately 1500. The industry is marked by considerable
concentration, with the 10 largest firms estimated to account for about 75% of total U.S. pesticide
sales. The industry is further stratified since less than 5% of the products (45) are estimated to be
responsible for nearly 70% of total pesticide sales value. In fact, industry experts estimate that as
few as 12 products comprise more than 40% of the total value of pesticide sales.

     The significance of the stratification of the industry is as follows: a total of 486 compounds
(total for all subcategories) have been identified as being potentially relevant to this study and
300 of these compounds are judged to be major pesticide products. We estimate that 45 of the
compounds account for about 70% of total sales dollars (an average of about $25 million in annual
sales per product). Thus, the remaining 441 compounds have average annual sales of about $1
million each. The stratification of the industry results in the vast majority of products  (about
90%) having either relatively low physical sales volume or relatively low product price. Either of
these situations would raise the possibility of substantial impact if increased production costs
were incurred.

     Another critical factor in product pricing is the proprietary advantage which a company
may possess. The companies which dominate the Pesticide Industry, for the most part, achieve
their dominant positions  through sales of proprietary products, i.e., products for which they hold
a patent position. Industry observers estimate that the relative profitability (per sales dollar) is
normally at least doubled for proprietary products versus commodity products (no patent pro-
tection). This profit relationship will, of course,  vary with manufacturing  costs,  value of crop
protected, potential pest  damage, etc.

     The relative profitability of a product is also affected by the degree of competition existing
for control of a specific pest. For instance,  some industry personnel believe that profitability per
sales dollar is generally higher for herbicides than for insecticides, because of the high degree of
competition in the insecticide  market. The  willingness/ability of the pesticide user  to allow
profitable product pricing will also vary by crops, pest, and crop value. Growers of a high-value
crop would normally be more willing to absorb price increases than  growers of low-value crops,
such as grain.

2.3.2   Estimated Subcategory Prices
     Average product prices for the Pesticide Industry tend to be  misleading because of the
extreme variance in  any  sample of prices. The following estimates therefore are presented as an
average and the range of prices from which that average was calculated (Table  2.3.2). The prices
presented in this table are prices to the pesticide user.
                                           20

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     Two things ought to be noted about the information in Table 2.3.2: (1) the range of prices
from which the average  prices were calculated was quite large and,  (2) the sample used to
calculate the average price tends to be of higher priced products.
                                        TABLE 2.3.2

                   ESTIMATED U.S. PESTICIDE SUBCATEGORY PRICES (1975)
                                         (User Level)
            Category

      Halogenated Organics*

      Phosphorus-Containing*

      Nitrogen-Containing*

      Metallo-Organic*

      All Herbicides

      All Fungicides

      All Insecticides


      *Subcategory prices based on sample of 60 compounds total.

      Source: Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimates.
Average
$/kg
6.40
4.62
10.23
5.72
6.82
2.64
3.19
Price
$/lb
2.91
2.10
4.65
2.60
3.10
1.20
1.45
Price
$/kg
0.77-15.40
1.87- 9.90
1.32-48.40
1.98-15.40
N
N
N
Range
$/lb
0.35- 7.00
0.85- 4.50
0.60-22.00
0.90- 7.00
.A.
.A.
.A.
                                             21

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     3.0   PROPOSED TREATMENT TECHNOLOGY
                   AND  ASSOCIATED COSTS
     Pesticide manufacturing operations are diverse, and the wastewaters from such operations
typically contain a wide variety of pollutants, including raw materials and reaction byproducts,
along with quantities of the product pesticide itself. Certain pesticides (such as aldrin/dieldrin,
DDT, endrin, and toxaphene) have been  shown to be of sufficient environmental concern to
warrant regulations aimed at controlling the discharge levels of the specific pesticide itself. The
discharge of those specific pesticides will largely be governed by a set of regulations outside the
scope of this study. They are  the Proposed Toxic Pollutant Effluent Standards, found under
section 307(a) of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments.

     The Interim Final Effluent Guidelines and Standards of Performance for the Pesticides and
Agricultural Chemicals Industry do not regulate the discharge of specific pesticides, but rather
are directed toward controlling the discharge of the  total regime  of pesticides, as well as con-
trolling general pollutional parameters and groups of compounds associated with the defined
subcategories within the industry. Table 3.0A presents the effluent characteristics that are to be
regulated under the Interim Final Effluent Guidelines.

     According to the Development Document,  the effluent limitations were established by
assessing the  ability of  various wastewater treatment measures to  effect reductions in the
quantities of pollutants present in the  raw wastewaters emanating from plants surveyed in the
preparation of the Development Document. The assessment was performed both by observing the
performance of existing treatment systems and by extrapolating the performance from similar
applications.

     The recommended treatment measures that are believed to be capable of achieving the
BPCTCA level are summarized below:

3.1.  SUBCATEGORYA
     1. Incineration of strong organic wastes, vent vapors, and oil skimmings.

     2. The general process wastewater to be subjected to:
                             u
            neutralization,
            oil removal,
            equalization,
            granular media filtration,
            activated carbon adsorption, and
            biological treatment via the activated sludge process.

     3. Waste sludge treatment consisting of:

         •  thickening,
         •  aerobic digestion, and
         •  vacuum filtration.
                                        23

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                                      TABLE 3.0A

                          EFFLUENT LIMITATIONS GUIDELINES
       BEST PRACTICABLE CONTROL TECHNOLOGY CURRENTLY AVAILABLE (BPCTCA)
                 PESTICIDES AND AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS INDUSTRY
     Subcategory
   Effluent
Characteristics
                                                     Effluent Limitations
Average of Daily Values
for 30 Consecutive Days
    (kg/kkg product)
     Daily
  Maximum
(kg/kkg product)
                           BOD
                           COD
                           TSS
                          Phenol
                      Total Pesticides

                           BOD
                           COD
                           TSS
                          NH3-N
                      Total Pesticides

                           BOD
                           COD
                           TSS
                          NH3-N
                      Total Pesticides
         D1

         E
                           2.72
                           11.8
                           2.53
                         0.00100
                         0.00100

                           1.65
                           16.2
                           2.01
                           2.45
                         0.000700

                           2.70
                           11.7
                           3.18
                           2.71
                         0.000454

                  No Discharge of Pollutants

                  No Discharge of Pollutants
                                6.82
                                29.4
                                5.65
                             0.00230
                             0.0219

                                4.75
                                41.2
                                4.93
                                5.88
                             0.00219

                                7.77
                                22.8
                                7.80
                                6.50
                             0.000821
     Source: EPA Development Document, Table 11-1 (August 1976 version).
3.2  SUBCATEGORY B
     1. Incineration of strong organic wastes, vent vapors, and oil skimmings.

     2. The general process wastewater to be subjected to:
             ammonia stripping,
             oil removal,
             alkaline hydrolysis,
             neutralization,
             equalization, and
             biological treatment via the activated sludge process.
                                          24

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     3. Waste sludge treatment consisting of:

          •  thickening, and
          •  vacuum filtration.

3.3  SUBCATEGORYC
     1. Incineration of strong organic wastes, vent vapors and oil skimmings.

     2. The general process wastewater to be subjected to:

             ammonia stripping,
             neutralization,
             oil removal,
             equalization,
             biological treatment via the activated sludge process, and
             final sedimentation.

     3. Waste sludge treatment consisting of:

          •  thickening,
          •  aerobic digestion, and
          •  vacuum filtration.

3.4  SUBCATEGORY D
     1. Incineration of strong wastes (with metal-laden scrubber water sent to general
        process wastewater treatment system).

     2. The general process wastewater to be subjected to:

             precipitation, flocculation, and sedimentation,
             neutralization,
             equalization,
             biological treatment via the activated sludge process, and
             final sedimentation.

     3. Waste sludge treatment consisting of:

          •  thickening, and
          •  vacuum filtration.

     The  Development  Document makes use of a "cost model" in providing the wastewater
treatment cost estimates for the various industry subcategories. Basically the cost model consists
of applying the  suggested treatment technology to the wastewater  streams emanating from a
"typical" plant. The "typical" plant is intended to reflect representative production rates (metric
tons/day)  and representative unit wastewater generation rates (liters/metric ton of production)
for the various subcategories. These two factors are extremely important, because  when factored
together, they generate  the key design parameters in the costing of the wastewater treatment
                                           25

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system, i.e., the volume of wastewater treated per day. For these types of treatment, the capital
investment and many of the operating costs are highly dependent on the volume of wastewater
treated.

     Once  the representative plant was established with its respective  production rate and
wastewater generation rate,  capital and operating costs were developed using normally practiced
cost-estimating procedures.  The ultimate basis of economic impact evaluation is the unit treat-
ment cost, i.e., the cost of treatment per unit of production. This cost is calculated by dividing the
total annual cost associated with wastewater treatment by the annual production rate. Capital
investments for the representative plants in each subcategory are presented in Table 3.4A. Unit
wastewater treatment costs  are presented in Table 3.4B.

     We  believe that the wastewater treatment cost estimates presented in the  Development
Document are reasonably accurate to the extent that they reflect the capital and operating costs
of the  wastewater treatment  technology used in the cost model. However,  we do have some
reservations about the number and type of wastewater treatment steps recommended.

     For instance, in Subcategory A  the BPCTCA treatment scheme includes filtration and
carbon adsorption upstream of the biological treatment system. Presumably, this highly unusual
arrangement would be used to prevent pesticides from entering the biological treatment system
and disrupting its operation. Since the activated carbon would also remove a substantial portion
of the organic material contained in the wastewater, we question whether the biological treatment
system is necessary or properly sized.

                                      TABLE 3.4A

         EFFLUENT GUIDELINES WASTEWATER TREATMENT CAPITAL INVESTMENT
                 FOR REPRESENTATIVE MANUFACTURING PLANTS IN THE
                 PESTICIDES AND AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS INDUSTRY*


                      Development  Document Cost
                       Model Plant Production Rate        BPCTCA Capital Investment
                           (metric tons/day)             	($1000)	
         Industry
         Category      Small Plant      Large Plant       Small Plant      Large Plant

            A           16.2           85.7              3,036          5,992

            B             12            126              2,925          7,621

            C             11            133              2,794          7,613
      Source:  EPA Development Document, August 1976 version, plus Aug. 16, 1976 revisions.

      *AII costs have been adjusted to the 1975 level using the Engineering News Record Construc-
       tion Cost Index (1975: ENR-2,276).
                                           26

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                                                                   TABLE 3.4B

                                            EFFLUENT GUIDELINES WASTEWATER TREATMENT COSTS
                                            PESTICIDES AND AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS INDUSTRY1'3
             Industry
             Category
                                  Development Document
                                      Representative
                                     Production Rate
                                     (metric tons/day)
Small Plant
Large Plant
                                           BPCTCA Total
                                       Annual Treatment Cost
                                          for Model Plant
                                            ($1000/Year)
                                                           BPCTCA Unit Treatment
                                                           Cost Based on Model Plant
                                                                ($/metric ton)
                                                                                                        Small Plant
                                                                                            Large Plant
N)
-J
A
B
C
16.2
12
11
85.7
126
133
1,053.4
755.8
730.9
1,858.8
1,940
1,948
197
196
201
65.7
59.7
44.4
        Sources: EPA Development Document, August 1976 version, plus Aug. 16, 1976, revision.

        Notes:  1. All costs have been adjusted to the 1975 level using the Engineering News Record Construction Cost Index (1975:  ENR = 2,276).
               2. All treatment costs are based on total annual cost and include all direct operating costs, plus capital recovery @ 16.3% of initial capital invest-
                 ment per year.
               3. Unit costs are based on 330 production days per year.

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     The cost model also employs a rather complete sludge-handling and treatment scheme,
consisting in some cases of thickening, aerobic digestion, and vacuum filtration capabilities. For
small plants, especially those in rural areas  where acceptable sludge-disposal sites are more
abundant, it is doubtful that such elaborate measures would be employed. In our opinion, the
cost model contains capital and operating costs for many treatment steps which have little
likelihood of actually being used throughout the industry.

     Another important factor is the effect on cost of multiple product plants sharing a common
waste treatment system. In such cases, the wastewater treatment costs would be allocated among
the products, and in most cases this would result in a reduction of the unit wastewater treatment
costs assigned to individual pesticides.

     In applying the costs presented in the Development Document cost model, it is essential to
recognize that the costs are for green field wastewater treatment plants  and, therefore, do not
acknowledge wastewater treatment steps already in place. In addition, it should be recognized
that the treatment cost models do not take into  account the  simultaneous requirement for
controlling BOD  and COD. This simultaneous requirement will very likely result in a large
variability between plants in the treatment needed to meet the BPCTCA standards.

     With regard to evaluating economic impact, it is important to recognize that the diverse
nature of this industry, characterized by widely varying production rates and wastewater gener-
ation rates, unavoidably introduces a high degree of inaccuracy when one tries to apply a single
treatment cost to an entire subcategory. In recognition of this factor, the Development Document
presents two sets of cost estimates for three of the  four subcategories: one estimate for a small
plant and another for a large plant. While this step at least acknowledges the high degree of cost
variability, there is  still a high degree of uncertainty remaining when one attempts to use these
costs to make conclusions regarding economic impact.

     To illustrate this variability, the reported unit wastewater generation rates for the various
plants surveyed for the Development Document study are compared in Table 3.4C with those
used in the cost model.
                                           28

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                              TABLE 3.4C

       COMPARISON OF UNIT WASTEWATER GENERATION RATES
                             (Gal/1000 Lb)


                    Reported Values            Wastewater Generation Rate
Subcategory        Low         High              Used in Cost Model

    A             377        49,200         Small Plant   -  4,000

                                             Large Plant   - 10,700

    B             333        12,900         Small Plant   -  2,900

                                             Large Plant   -  2,900

    C             156        10,200         Small Plant   -  3,700

                                             Large Plant   -  3,700

    D           7,000         9,150         Typical Plant  -  8,000
Source:  EPA Development Document, August 1976 Version, plus August 16,
        1976, Revision.
                                  29

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    4.0  PRESCREENING  OF ECONOMIC IMPACT

                     OF EFFLUENT GUIDELINES


4.1   PRESCREENING METHODOLOGY
    The objective of the prescreening exercise was to provide the EPA with sufficient informa-
tion to permit it to choose which industry subcategories it could eliminate from further study by
ADL.  Of course,  eliminating some of the subcategories would  permit a more cost-effective
utilization of the available resources for studying the economic impact of the proposed effluent
guidelines.

    For any prescreening process to be effective, it must:

    •  exclude only those subcategories for which there is strong evidence readily avail-
        able that the economic impact would be insignificant; and
    •  not consume a large amount of the available resources.

    Initiating the study, ADL interviewed its own experts for each industry category to develop
information which characterized the industry, its markets,  its  pollution control practices, and
any consideration the industry expert felt EPA should  know about  respective industry sub-
categories. To guide the experts on the kind of information they should provide, we developed an
outline (in tabular form) of the information needed.

    The experts were instructed to prepare their comments utilizing only personal knowledge or
information that was immediately available to them in completing the information table for their
respective industry subcategories. In many instances, there were areas in the information table on
which no comment was possible, either because the expert did not have the required information
immediately available, or because the answer was too complex to be answered at the prescreening
level.

    The information contained in the experts' comments and on the information table not only
provided  the basis for our recommendations concerning the categories EPA should consider
eliminating, but also generalized the condition of the industry with respect to the proposed
regulations.

    In developing our recommendations, we wanted to have a high degree of certainty that any
category we recommended for elimination could not, on further study, be shown to be seriously
impacted. Thus, we developed four criteria, any one of which if met by an industry subcategory
would be enough to warrant tentative elimination of that subcategory. Before we recommended
that EPA consider elimination of a subcategory from further study, we made an overall assess-
ment involving other data known to the industry expert. The criteria we used follow:

    (1)   The industry subcategory is generating no waste water.

    (2)   The ratio of BPCTCA plus BATEA costs to selling price is less than 2%, and/or
         the ratio of BPCTCA plus BATEA costs to profits  is less than 15%.
                                       31

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     (3)  Virtually all of the plants in the subcategory are currently  discharging into
         municipal sewage systems and  may continue to do  so with  little or no pre-
         treatment costs incurred.

     (4)  Virtually all of the recommended treatment facilities have already been installed
         in most of the plants in the subcategory.

     Criterion (1)  obviously represents the strongest reason for eliminating an industry from
further study. If the industry does not discharge waste water, water pollution regulations would
have no impact upon the industry.

     Criterion (2) is based on discussions with ADL economic experts. We decided that if this
criterion were met, the proposed standards would likely not result in a significant economic
impact. Often our  experts had no profit margin information available. In those instances, when
the ratio of treatment  cost to selling price was less than 2%, we still recommended that EPA
consider removing  the subcategory from further study. However, this recommendation is not so
strong as the recommendations made using profit information.

     In considering treatment cost/selling price and treatment cost/profit margin  ratios, it is
important to realize that the treatment costs presented in the Development Document are for a
total  treatment system  and represent the costs incurred  by a plant having no  wastewater
treatment already in place. Most facilities within the eight industries studied under this contract
have some form of wastewater treatment already installed.

     Criterion (3) also represents a very strong reason for eliminating a subcategory from further
study. If the wastewater treatment practice within a subcategory consists mainly of  discharging
to municipal sewage systems, the cost of that treatment is already being  incurred via  sewer
charges. If the subcategory can continue  this practice, be consistent with the pretreatment
standards set forth in the Development Document, and yet incur little or no pretreatment cost,
then the incremental economic impact to that subcategory would be nil. Since the Development
Document  does not provide pretreatment costs, criterion (3) was used to eliminate a category
only when it was very clear that pretreatment would be either unnecessary or minimal.

     Criterion (4) represents a reason for eliminating an industry from further study on the basis
that, should the industry meet criterion (4), it would not have to expend as much money as the
Development Document indicates to meet the proposed standards.

     The wastewater treatment already installed to meet other Federal or State regulations may
be adequate to meet the requirements of the  proposed guidelines. Therefore, the incremental
treatment costs attributable to the guidelines may be zero for many facilities. In any event, the
treatment costs in the Development  Document represent maximum costs, so that for plants with
treatment  facilities in place we expect that actual  costs will  be less than indicated by the
Development Document and the 2 percent or 15 percent criteria used in the prescreening process
are therefore conservative.
                                           32

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4.2   ECONOMIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL FACTORS
     Economic and technological information used in the  prescreening exercise is shown  in
Table 4.2. The ratio of BPCTCA unit treatment costs to selling price is based on the average
selling price of the pesticides in each subcategory. Table  4.2 shows that for subcategory A
(halogenated organics), this ratio varies from 1.0 to 3.0 percent. For subcategory B (organo-
phosphorus), the ratio varies from 1.3 to 4.2 percent; for subcategory C (organo-nitrogen), the
ratio varies from 0.4 to 2.0 percent; and for subcategory  D (metallo-organic), the ratio is virtually
0 percent due to essentially zero discharge from this subcategory.

     Had the above information been available early in the study, we would have recommended
the exclusion of subcategory  D from further study. However, the earlier versions of the Devel-
opment Document did not contain  the zero discharge information for subcategory D, and we
were therefore unable to recommend exclusion of the subcategory. Likewise additional informa-
tion was desired for subcategory  E (formulators)  and it was necessary to set up an informal
telephone survey to obtain it.
                                          33

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                                                                   TABLE 4.2

                                              /ON TABLE - MISCELLANEOUS CHEMICALS INDUSTRY
                                                   INDUSTRY CATEGORY - PESTICIDES
 i.   .
 2.   Produi..
 3.   Representative
     Prices,* $/metnc tori
 4.   Estimated Profit Margin (% of selling
     pncel
 5.   BPCTCA (1977) Treatment Cost"
     ($/metric ton of product)

Technical and Economic Factors Pertinent
to Economic Impact Analysts

            Technical Factors

 6   Possibility of drastically reducing or
     totally eliminating wastewater flow rate.
 7   Possibility of substantially reducing
     cost of end-of-pipe treatment via
     m-plant changes and/or process
     modification.
 8.   Fraction of plants with substantial
     wastewater treatment facilities
     m-place.
 9   Fraction of plants presently dis-
     charging into municipal wastewater
     treatment facilities.
10.   Frequency or likelihood of plants
     sharing waste treatment facilities
     with other manufacturing operations.
11.   Degree to which proposed treatment
     departs from currently employed
     treatment.
12.   Seriousness of other pending
     environmental control problems
     (including OSHA).

            Economic Factors

13   BPCTCA unit treatment
     cost as percent of unit selling
     price.
14.   BPCTCA unit treatment
     cost as percent of unit profit
     margin
15.   Would the demand for the
     industry's product be signifi-
     cantly affected by an increase
     in price7
16.   Would the impact on this industry
     category be felt in other
     industries?
A.  Halogtnattd Organic*

Small Plant/Large Plant

Not Determined
Not Determined
6,400

Not Determined

197/65.7
Highly Varied

Low to Moderate



Moderate


Low


Low


Highly Varied


High





1.0-3.0


Not Determined
                                                                                           Subcatagoriai
                                                                          B.  Organo-photphoroui    C.  Organo-nltrogcn

                                                                          Small Plant/Large Plant     Small Rant/Larga Plant
Not Determined
Not Determined
4,620

Not Determined

196/59.7
Highly Varied

Low to Moderate



Moderate


Low


Low


Highly Varied


Moderate
1.3-4.2
                             Not Determined
Not Determined
Not Determined
10,230

Not Determined

201/44.4
Highly Varied

Low to Moderate



Moderate


Low


Low


Highly Varied


Low
                          0.4-2.0
                                                      Not Determined
                     Highly Dependent on Crop Prices and Other Agricultural Factors
                                                      D.  Matallo-organie
Not Determined
Not Determined
5,720

Not Determined

0
Highly Varied

Low to Moderate



Moderate


Low


Low


Highly Varied


Very High
                                                                                   Not Determined
Yes
                             Yes
                                                      Yes
                                                                                   Yes
  'Average 1975 selling price.
 *"BPCTCA treatment costs have been adjusted from 1972 to the 1975 level using the Engineering News Record Construction Cost Index (1972 = 1780, 1975 = 2276).

 Note: Source of BPCTCA treatment costs is the August 1976, version of the Development Document for subcategories A and D and August 16, 1976, revision for sub-
      categories B and C.
                                                                         34

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              5.0   ECONOMIC  IMPACT OF THE
        INTERIM FINAL  EFFLUENT GUIDELINES
              ON  THE PESTICIDES INDUSTRY
    The prescreening of the Pesticides Industry (Section 4.0) indicated that there was a possi-
bility of significant impact on each subcategory of the industry, if the Development Document
treatment costs were incurred. To determine whether there would indeed be a significant impact
on the industry we performed four tasks:

    (1) made a general economic analysis of all pesticide  products, based upon how
        farmers decide what pesticide purchases to make;
    (2) examined price and production effects that the proposed standards might have on
        20 representative pesticides;
    (3) performed a cursory technical  analysis to determine the extent to which the
        treatment required to meet the BPCTCA standards had already been installed;
        and
    (4) conducted an informal telephone survey of pesticide manufacturers.

    Based on the work done and the information presently available we have concluded that:

    (1) the  formulators will not be affected by the regulations because  there are no
        formulators who are direct dischargers;
    (2) for some pesticide control programs, the cost-benefit ratio has been worsening, a
        trend which would be further antagonized by any price increase; and
    (3) if the treatment costs shown in the Development Document are actually incurred,
        there may be an impact on small plants producing low-price pesticides.

5.1 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

5.1.1   Analysis of all Pesticide Products Based Upon
       the Farmers' Decision-Making Process

5.1.1.1 Growth in Pesticide Usage
    Over the past 25 years,  agricultural pesticide  usage in  the United States has expanded
dramatically, particularly on major crops. Between 1966 and  1971 alone, the share of cropland
acreage (including pasture) treated with  pesticides has increased from 36 to more than 50
percent.1 Currently an estimated  60-70 percent of all farmers are using either herbicides, in-
secticides, fungicides, or other chemical control compounds to produce non-pasture crops.2 On
some  crops,  such as rice, corn, cotton, peanuts, sugar  beets, vegetables, and fruits, it is not
uncommon to find 80-95 percent of farmers employing pesticides. With such widespread and still
increasing use of agricultural pesticides in the United States, understanding the decision process
by which farmers choose to use pesticides is an important consideration in assessing the potential
economic impact of regulations affecting pesticide manufacturers. The subsequent discussion is
an analysis of this decision process.
1. "Farmer's Use of Pesticides in 1971: Extent of Use," Agricultural Economic Report No. 268, ERS, USDA, 1975.
2. Arthur D. Little, Inc., estimate.

                                       35

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     From the outset it should be understood that there is no "typical" farmer with respect to
decisions regarding pesticide usage. While generalizations are possible for specific compound-use
crop situations,  generalizations are seldom if every valid for agriculture as a whole.  Decision
parameters vary according to type of crop, size of operation, form of management, pesticide type,
and others. To say that the decision process for using pesticides is the same for a small cotton
farm in Mississippi, a large corn farm  in Illinois, and  a cooperative managed citrus grove in
Florida would be unrealistic. Consequently,  since both the  conditions and  process in each
situation are different, the final decisions as to usage patterns will also be different.

5.1.1.2  Reasons for Using Pesticides
     There is, however, a common thread which should run through each and every farmer's
decision process, and that is the fundamental reason for using a pesticide in the first place. The
principal determining factor as to the extent and manner in which a farm enterprise employs
pesticides is the potential or expected increase in income  resulting from chemical treatment.
Theoretically, pesticides would never be  applied unless an "economic threshold" had either been
reached (for curative treatments) or could be reasonably predicted (in the case of preventive
treatments). In other words, pesticide application is utilized for two discernible reasons: as an
insurance against risk, or as a control once risk had become reality. In simple economic terms, the
financial gain from that portion of the crop saved due to treatment is expected, on the average (as
a minimum), to exceed the cost of the pesticides and their application. "Theoretical" has been
emphasized in the preceding statement since,  under actual field conditions, determination of
thresholds  is inaccurate at best, and decisions to use pesticides are based on numerous subjective,
non-economic, decision-making elements. Nonetheless, in spite of the seemingly apparent eco-
nomic  irrationality in their decision-making, farmers are motivated to use pesticides in hopes of
increasing their incomes.

5.1.1.3  The Decision Process
     There are four steps  in  the decision-making process whereby  a farmer may eventually
choose to apply a pesticide. He must in some manner, either formally or informally, ask and
answer each of the following questions:

     (1)  Is any control necessary?
     (2)  If so, what should be the control method (pesticides, cultivation, predator insects,
         manual, etc.)?
     (3)  If pesticides are chosen as the control, which pesticide should be used?
     (4)  Once a specific pesticide is selected for  use, at what rate should  it be applied?
         (This may be one of the determining factors in answering (3) above. However, it
         can also  be a factor  by itself once a pesticide has been selected,  or  if only one
         pesticide exists for a specific use.)

     Most farmers will probably not have answered each of these questions systematically, but in
some way each will have been  answered  to his satisfaction, given his style of farm management.
Some farmers will have answered these questions when they first started using pesticides and will
not have reexamined their answers in  subsequent years. Other farmers will  reevaluate their
positions each year. Most farmers, however, reexamine their situation only when they acquire
new  "information,"  e.g.,  the  awareness of a new product, experienced resistance problems,
                                           36

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receipt of new Extension recommendations, incurred increased product costs, etc. However, each
farmer's perception or interpretation of this new information often tends to be different, even
among farmers operating under very similar conditions.

     Input elements to decision-making (i.e., answering the above four questions) fall into four
major categories with some overlapping between categories (Table 5.1.1). No one input element
or category of elements is necessarily dominant, or even prevalent, in making pesticide usage
decisions. As stated earlier, the importance of each will vary between farmers, crops, regions, and
individual pesticides or categories of pesticides. However, in an effort to provide insight into how
farmers respond to a changing agricultural environment with respect to pesticide usage, various
actual examples are cited below.

     Often the value of pest control  to the farmer  is directly related to crop  value, which
fluctuates with crop prices. For example, tests of corn weed control conducted over a nine-year
period in Illinois showed that herbicide treatment increased yield by an average of 24 bushels per
acre for typical crop rotations. In 1971  the value of this increase in production would have been
$26 per acre. At that time chemical and application costs would have been approximately $11 per
acre, thus providing a net benefit of $15 per acre  attributable to herbicide usage. During harvest
1974 the value of the 24 bushel per acre yield increase was $84. Although chemical and appli-
cation costs had risen to $69 per acre, the net gain from herbicide usage has remained constant at
$15 per acre. Therefore, although treatment costs had increased six-fold there was no major move
away from  past levels of herbicide usage, since net benefits from control had actually remained
constant during that period.

5.1.1.4  Soybean/Cotton Farmer Differences
     An Extension economist in Mississippi typically found the following situation with respect
to soybeans and cotton: Soybean farmers relate input costs to bushels of  soybeans. They are
willing to "allocate 4-5 bushels of soybeans" per acre for weed control. Thus, if soybeans sell at $5
per bushel, they are willing to spend $20-25 on weed control. If the price were to drop to $4 per
bushel, they would try to devise a weed-control program which would cost only $16-20 per acre.
Soybean farmers, although accepting that herbicides, insecticides, etc., do often have a positive
effect on yields, feel that weather is by far the dominant factor. If weather is bad, they surmise
their yields will probably not exceed 20 bushels per acre (5-15 below normal), no matter what else
is done. Consequently, the soybean farmer is quite reluctant to invest inputs which  may have
little additional effect on yield during less than ideal weather conditions. Therefore, one finds the
above situation  where farmers  will not maintain a comparable weed-control program if crop
prices are expected to fall,  since most herbicide  usage occurs early in the growing season, long
before the final effects of weather on the crop can be known.

     A final point should also be noted: If the crop price for soybeans holds while herbicide costs
increase, one might also find a reorganization of the control program such that less herbicides are
employed. Thus soybean farmers in Mississippi might be considered quite responsive both to crop
and chemical price changes.

     Cotton farmers are somewhat different. Although weather is important after the crop is
planted,  it  is not seen to be the dominant  factor that it is in raising soybeans. Cotton is more
input-in tensive than soybeans. Additionally, to pay for a $5 increase in inputs (say, herbicides)
                                           37

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                                                                        TABLE 5.1.1
                                        INPUT ELEMENTS FOR DECISION-MAKING REGARDING PESTICIDE USAGE
                   Economic
              Pesticide Costs
              Projected Crop Prices
              Cost of Alternative
                (non-pesticide)
                Controls
u>
00
          Technical
Pesticide:
   Efficacy
   Reliability
   Rotation
   Preventive vs. Curative
   Broad Spectrum vs. Selective
Pest:
   Combinations
   Resistance
   Characteristics
     Merchandising
Promotion
Service
"Official" Recommend-
   ations:
   Extension Service
   Growers Organizations
      Management
  Attitudes/Perceptions
Crop Status/Pest Severity
Financial Risk Manage-
   ment Style
Pesticide:
   Ease of Handling
   Health Hazard
   Residual Effect
Need for:
   Preventive vs.
   Curative
   Broad Spectrum vs.
   Selective
Attitude toward
   Pesticides in
   General
Pesticide Alternatives:
   Availability
   Practicality
   East of Management

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may require only a 1.5% increase in yield to justify the expense. Whereas, in soybean farming, to
justify a $5 expense would mean increasing the yield by 3-4.5%, a much less certain proposition
given the perceived weather variability  of soybean  yields.  (Actually  cotton yields can  vary
considerably based on weather variability; however, the perception of cotton farmers of the input-
weather-yield relationship is different from that of the soybean farmer.

5.1.1.5  Pesticide Recommendations, Efficacy Considerations, and
         Regulatory Decisions
     Recent events in the pecan industry with respect to fungicides illustrate the importance of
official pesticide recommendations, as well as the importance of technical efficacy considerations.
Until 1974 there were only two major compounds available for pecan scab control, one of which
had problems with phytotoxicity. Consequently, in Georgia, the Pecan Growers Association, in
conjunction  with the Extension Service, recommended that only the one compound be used for
scab control. As a result, through the early 1970's, nearly all scab treatment was effected with this
single compound. In 1974, a third, apparently extremely effective compound was registered and
introduced to the market.  Because of the apparent effectiveness of this new  compound,  the
Growers Association and Extension Service changed their  recommendation from the standard
control agent to the new agent. By the 1975 season, nearly  all growers had switched to the new
compound. However, in 1975, indications of resistance to the new compound were uncovered.
Therefore, for the 1976 season, recommendations were changed once again, and thus a large-scale
movement back to the use of the old, standard compound resulted.

     Merchandising, too, can play a dominant role in whether one compound is used over another
and at what level. Again, using the pecan industry as an example, one finds producing areas in
Louisiana where the standard compound used for scab control in Georgia is glaringly  absent,
while the compound with some phytotoxic problems is widely  used. The reason is apparently the
ineffectiveness or even non-existence of a marketing program in Louisiana for the apparently
better compound. It is interesting to note that while the non-phytotoxic chemical is among those
compounds recommended for scab control in Louisiana, yet the low level of use exists because of
poor merchandising.

     Presently,  there are various regulatory decisions being made which will impact both pesti-
cide  manufacturers and formulators, and which will potentially drive up production costs. This
latter effect could,  in turn,  cause farmers to pay increased pesticide prices.  Given  such a
situation, it becomes  important to select the decision-making input elements which  will most
influence whether a pesticide will continue to be used at the  same level, even though its price has
increased. To assess this situation, one must first consider a situation where no alternative exists
and then a situation where other control alternatives are available.

     When there is only a  single viable control alternative,  three factors  tend  to influence a
farmer's decision as to whether and how he will employ that control:

     (1) the level of the pesticide price increase;
     (2) the presence and degree of any crop price change; and
     (3) the efficacy of the control compound, i.e., the marginal yield-response relationship
        for each unit of input.
                                          39

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     If one assumes relative stability in crop prices, a small increase in pesticide price is unlikely
to cause any shift in usage patterns. Since in the past (and even in some cases into the present)
benefits from control generally far exceeded costs, even fairly substantial price increases may be
absorbed by the producer without any significant alteration in usage levels. However, there are
now situations where any further substantial increase in pesticide prices will cause a reexam-
ination  of current control programs.  Such a reexamination will be especially  true if crop prices
also fall. Referring to the corn-weed  control example cited above, and assuming that  herbicide
prices had not increased since 1974, we note that corn prices have fallen to $2.35-2.90 per bushel.
If we use a $2.50 per bushel value, the 24 bushel yield increase is now  worth only $60, while
treatment costs are $69. As a result farmers are being forced to reevaluate their entire production
program as it regards herbicide usage.

     Other crops, however,  still have a  margin for either increased pesticide prices or reduced
crop prices. In some vegetables, for example, non-control of certain insects may mean the total
destruction  of a crop. In such a situation, once the crop has been planted, there is virtually no
price change for either pesticides or the crop which will cause an alteration  in insecticide use
patterns.

     In  the second situation, where alternative controls (to that compound which has suffered a
price increase because of regulatory decisions) do exist, four elements tend to influence pesticide
usage decisions:

     (1) level of pesticide price increase in relation to price changes for alternatives;
     (2) change in crop price;
     (3) comparative efficacy of all  control methods (i.e., comparative marginal yield
        response per unit of input for each alternative); and
     (4) comparative merchandising effectiveness which capitalizes on price changes.

     Under the multi-alternative situation, if the price increase for  the control compound is
minimal, there will probably be no shifting of usage away from the now more expensive com-
pound.  If regulatory decisions or other factors affect the per acre application cost of all alterna-
tives equally and the cost change is significant, the various possible responses outlined above in
the "no alternative" situation will be applicable for  the acreage treated with each respective
alternative. Again, there should be no significant shifting between compounds. However, if one
compound forces a farmer to raise his price disproportionately to his competition, then shifting
away from that compound  to the alternatives is likely. The degree  of  this  shift will depend
primarily  on whether or not the adversely affected  compound is considered the  benchmark
control  method (based on either technical fact or consumer perception) and whether competition
is able  to effectively capitalize on the change in price relationships in their merchandising
programs. Depending on the chemical compound, crop, pest, and producing region,  this shift
could be from very small to almost absolute.

5.1.1.6 Reexamination of Pesticide Control Programs
     Continued increases in pesticide prices in the face of stabilizing, or even falling, crop prices
are causing more and more farmers to reexamine their position with respect to pesticide control
programs. This is true for even those crops which still enjoy a comfortable net benefit margin
resulting from treatment. In the long run, any commercial enterprise which uses an input whose


                                           40

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costs continue to increase disproportionately with respect to output and other input costs will
eventually begin seeking cheaper alternatives. This is now evident in the U.S. agriculture with
respect to pesticides. For example, a few years ago, integrated pest management using various
biological and other non-chemical  controls (as  well  as perhaps  some pesticides although at
reduced levels) was viewed rather skeptically by farmers. Now, both in the cotton and citrus
industries, the possibility of using such programs on a widespread basis is gaining credibility as
more and more favorable test results are forthcoming.  Therefore, without debating the merits of
such an  impact,  any further increase in pesticide prices, no matter how small, will further
antagonize a worsening cost-benefit situation for many chemical pesticide control programs.

5.1.2  Analysis of Selected  Pesticide Products Based
       On Price and  Production  Effects
     For this analysis,  we used case  studies  of 20 "representative" pesticide products. This
product sample was selected on a subjective basis and was designed to reflect a broad spectrum of
the chemical subcategories, product cost, pesticidal action, proprietary status and market envi-
ronment. The products  comprising this sample have annual sales volumes substantially above
the industry average, and were chosen to ensure that adequate economic data could be developed.

     The examination of the  price and production effects of this  product sample involved the
following tasks:

     (1)  Estimation of the ratio of waste treatment costs (as presented in the Development
         Document) to manufacturer's selling costs.
     (2)  Evaluation of the competitive situation in the major markets for these products.
         This evaluation required discussions with industry personnel and agricultural
         experts,  a literature review, etc. The criteria for this evaluation were the number
         and price competitiveness and efficacy of other products capable of being sub-
         stituted for the product being studied.
     (3)  Estimation of the value of pest control in the major markets for the product, i.e.,
         does the user of control methods for those pests (of any type) receive marginal
         benefits substantially greater  than the cost of treatment under present technology.
     (4)  Given the results of Tasks 2  and 3, what is the likelihood that the manufacturer
         will be able to pass on to the consumer all (or a significant portion) of the
         incremental waste treatment  costs without significantly affecting either total sales
         or per unit profitability of the product? (Is the manufacturer facing an inelastic
         demand  for this product?)
     (5)  Estimation of Economic Impact Potential — Based upon the results of Tasks  1-4,
         the likelihood of significant economic impact on basic producers of the products
         was estimated, with the economic impact potential  ranked as low, medium, or
         high, according to the following definitions:

          •   Low —The costs associated with the addition of proposed waste treatment
             standards to the cost structure of the product will probably not alter profit-
             ability or product sales to such an extent as to cause major changes in annual
             product output.
                                           41

-------
          •  Medium  — The costs associated with the addition of proposed waste treat-
             ment standards to the cost structure of the product may reduce the profit-
             ability of the producer through either absorption of these costs  or reduced
             total sales  because of higher product prices. Annual product output would
             likely be affected.
          •  High  — The producers will likely be forced to reevaluate the present produc-
             tion rationale for the product. A decision to discontinue production may be
             appropriate for some or all producers of the product.

     The results of this analysis are summarized in Table  5.1.2. The conclusions we reached
from just this examination follow:

     (1) In each subcategory, there  is a likelihood of a significant impact to small plants
        producing low-price pesticides.
     (2) The competitive situations in major markets tend to be stringent. In all cases,
        alternative pesticide products or pest control techniques are available to users of
        the products studied. In only one case (MSMA) was a near total dominance of the
        competitive environment in the product's major market observed.
     (3) The marginal benefits associated with pest control in the major markets are in all
        cases favorable.  Users of the products are aware of the benefits of these products.
     (4) The ability to pass production cost increases on to pesticide consumers appears to
        be a function of the competitiveness of the market. In cases where strong com-
        petition for a crop/pest market was observed, pricing flexibility was decreased.
     (5) The most important factor affecting potential economic impact appears to be the
        proprietary status of the product. Of the 10 non-proprietary products studied, 8
        products were judged to be susceptible to medium or high impact. Some of the
        reasons for this susceptibility are: (a)  the presence of a single dominant firm in the
        industry and  a  number of smaller firms, likely to be impacted through lack of
        pricing flexibility; (b) the presence of competition from strong non-U.S. produc-
        ers;  and (c) sales of low-price products in extremely price-sensitive markets.

     The significance of the high impact to non-proprietary compounds is likely to increase. We
estimate that there are 300 major pesticide products and that one-third of the products now have
proprietary status. In the near future, many products will lose their patent protection.

     Because patent protection  is an important factor  affecting  economic impact and many
pesticides  will be losing their patent protection in the near future, a tabulation of patent
expirations (1975-1986) is included as Appendix 8.

5.2.  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
     In this section we discuss a cursory technical analysis that we made to determine the extent
to which the recommended  BPCTCA treatment is already  installed. This analysis is based on
Development Document  information on the treatment steps currently installed at more than 50
pesticide manufacturers.  The Development Document information is of varying completeness for
each plant. We attempted to compare the existing treatment with the treatment methods used in
developing the BPCTCA cost  model.  In most cases we had little  information available on the
                                          42

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                                                                           TABLE 5.1,2

                 SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC IMPACT PROBABILITIES DUE TO ADDED WASTE TREATMENT COSTS
                                                           SELECTED PESTICIDE CHEMICALS
Organo-Phosphorus
Organo-Nitrogen
Met alto-Organic
    Subcateoory


Halogen* ted Or games     DDT
                          Product
                                                       Estimated Ratio of
                                                     Watte Treatment Coit
                                                        to Manufacturers       Competitive      Cost/Benefit'     Ability to6
                                            Type         Sailing Price*        fituitionin      Relationship    Faai Through
                                          of Action          (Percent)        Major Markets4       for Users     Cottlncnaae
              Likelihood of
Proprietary      Significant
  Status     Economic Impact
                                    Comments
DDT
2,4-0
2,4.5-T
Toxaphene*
DiCamba
Chloramben
Endrin
Methyl Parathion"
Diazinon
Malathion
Barban
Carbofuran
Cartaaryl*
Linuron
Trifluralin
Atrazina
Captan
MSMA*
Pectran®
Dithio-carbamates
Insecticide
Herbicide
Herbicide
Intecticide
Herbicide
Herbicide
Insecticide
Insecticide
Insecticide
Insecticide
Herbicide
Insecticide
Insecticide
Herbicide
Herbicide
Herbicide
Fungicide
Herbicide
Miticide
Fungicide
6.2
2.8
8.4
4.0
7.6
22.4
1.6
2.2
3.9
2.7
9.0
2.7
2.6
0.85
0.3
1.7
7.7
0.75
0.5
0.86
2.7



(L)>
(L)
IS)
IS)
(U
(S)
(S)
(SI
(S)
(U
IS)
(S)
IL)
(S)>

-------
degree of treatment achievable in each item of installed equipment and had to assume that the
performance of installed equipment was comparable to a similar item of equipment used in the
cost models.

     Of all the plants in categories A, B,  C and D discussed in the Development Document, none
has installed all of the treatment steps included in the respective BPCTCA cost models. Indeed,
while an average of 11 treatment steps are required in the cost model, we found that no plant had
installed more than 8 steps at this time. On  average, only three treatment steps are  currently
installed at a plant. Table 5.2 summarizes what we found when we reviewed the Development
Document information on treatment now in place.

     Some data were available on multi-product plants. Because of the manner in which the
information  was presented, it was not readily  possible to draw meaningful conclusions  on
treatment steps installed versus cost model treatment steps. A review of the  Development
Document description of the installed treatment in multi-product plants led us to believe that the
amount of treatment currently installed is similar to that installed in plants producing a single
category of products.

5.3  TELEPHONE SURVEY

5.3.1  Manufacturers
     At the  beginning of this study, we conducted an  informal telephone  survey of pesticide
manufacturers. The objective of this survey was to determine whether the manufacturers would
incur the full costs shown by the treatment cost models.  At the time of the survey, we found only
one plant which could not meet the guidelines as they were then being proposed. Subsequent to
this telephone survey, the proposed guidelines were changed, and the changes made the guide-
lines more stringent and consequently more difficult to meet. The most significant changes were
the addition of a COD and total pesticides limitation.

     Based on the findings of the telephone survey, we had concluded that most of the pesticide
industry was currently meeting the proposed standards, and that the standards would not have a
significant impact on the  industry. However,  we believe that the changes in the effluent guide-
lines made subsequent to  our telephone survey have invalidated our findings. We believe that if
the full costs shown in the Development Document were incurred, the effluent guidelines would
cause product substitutions and  other impacts to the  manufacturers. Small plants  manufac-
turing low-price pesticides would have a high probability of being significantly impacted by the
guidelines. Whether the manufacturers would incur the costs shown in the Development Docu-
ment will be covered in a supplement to this report. ESE is presently making a plant-by-plant
survey of the  treatment  that will  actually  be  required at each facility to meet the effluent
guidelines. Once the ESE work is completed, the supplement will be prepared.

5.3.2  Formulators
     ADL conducted a telephone survey of 16 companies which manufacture pesticide formula-
tions. These 16 companies operate 32 plants of various sizes; the largest operation has around 60
employees and the smallest operation has only 3 employees. The plants surveyed are scattered
throughout the United States.
                                          44

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                                                     TABLE 5.2

                                REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENT DOCUMENT INFORMATION ON
                                   INSTALLED TREATMENT VS. BPCTCA COST MODELS


Subcategory
A
B
C
D
Subtotal
% of Subtotal
No. of
Plants
Visited
18
6
11
7
42
	
Plants Not Impacted by
Effluent Guidelines

Sent to
Municipal
7
1
2
3
13
31

"Zero
Discharge"
3
-
1
1
5
12

Ocean or
Deep-well
1
2
1
-
4
10

Treatment
Required
2
-
-
1
3
7
No. of Plants
Affected
by
Effluent
Guidelines
5
3
7
2
17
40
No. of
Recommended
Treatment
Steps
11
11
11
10
-
	
Avg. No. of
Treatment
Steps
Installed
4
3
3
6
-
	
Source:  Development Document, dated July 6, 1976, with revisions dated August 16, 1976.

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     Table 5.3.2 shows the size and location of the plants contacted and the results of the
telephone survey. None of the plants surveyed would be expected to incur any significant capital
costs in meeting the proposed BPCTCA standards. Some of the small formulators,  however,
indicated concern about the administrative and monitoring costs that they might incur.

     ADL believes that the findings of the telephone survey are representative of the practices in
the pesticide formulation industry, and that it is very unlikely  that any formulators will incur
significant costs attributable to the BPCTCA standards. The findings from the telephone survey
are in agreement with the information in the Development Document.

5.4  ESTIMATED COST OF COMPLIANCE
     Thexcosts in the Development Document, based on a model plant approach, were intended
for use in a microeconomic impact analysis of the effluent guidelines.  They do not permit an
estimate of the total capital and operating costs that the industry  will  actually  incur. As
mentioned  previously, ESE is preparing an estimate  of actual  plant-by-plant costs. This esti-
mate, however, is not presently available. Consequently, the estimated cost of compliance will be
covered in a supplement to this report.
                                          46

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                                          TABLE 5.3.2

                            RESULTS OF THE TELEPHONE SURVEY
Company
 Contact
   No.
  States in Which
Formulation Plants
   are Located
Number of
  Plants
Number of
Employees
                    GA
                    SC
                    KS
                    NC
                                      45        All formulation is done indoors. Raw
                                                materials, including technical grade tox-
                                                aphene, are stored in tanks, while for-
                                                mulated  product is stored outdoors on
                                                a concrete slab. The loading dock is cov-
                                                ered but not enclosed.  In the event of
                                                a spill, soda ash is applied to neutralize
                                                the toxaphene  and  then an absorbent
                                                is applied. The absorbent is then picked
                                                up and sent to  an EPA-approved land-
                                                fill.

                                      45        Formulate mainly toxaphene products.
                                                They used to formulate a lot of endrin,
                                                but  do very little endrin formulation
                                                now. Formulation is carried out under
                                                a roof; the formulation  area has  no
                                                walls. Any spills go to a sump tank, the
                                                contents of which will be disposed of
                                                at an EPA-approved landfill. Raw ma-
                                                terials are stored in a warehouse which
                                                has a concrete floor. The loading area
                                                is uncovered. Any spills on it would be
                                                picked up with absorbents.

                                      60        Storage is in tanks which are surroun-
                                                ded  by dikes. The formulation area is
                                                indoors.  Liquid spills either go down a
                                                drain to a sump and are evaporated, or
                                                are picked up with absorbent which is
                                                taken to  an  EPA-approved landfill. The
                                                loading dock which  is 12' x 60' is not
                                                covered.  Any spills  on  it are immedi-
                                                ately picked up with an absorbent.

                                      12        Formulation is done under  a roof; the
                                                structure has no sides. Formulated pro-
                                                duct is stored in a shed. The  loading
                                                dock is covered. All toxaphene spills
                                                are immediately neutralized with soda
                                                ash and then picked up.
                                              47

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                                    TABLE 5.3.2 (Continued)
Company
 Contact
   No.
  States in Which
Formulation Plants
   are Located

   NC
Number of
  Plants

     1
Number of
Employees
                AR, MO, MS
                TN, TX, NC
                SC, AL, FL
                GA,CA
                         17
             1000 total
             for company.
             Some plants
             have as few
             as 3 em-
             ployees.
                FL
                CA
                                       50
                CA
                                       10
               Formulation and storage are all with-
               in buildings. The loading dock is cov-
               ered by an awning. They formulate
               only toxaphene dust. Any spills are
               immediately vacuumed up.

               All the toxaphene formulations are
               emulsifiable concentrates. The form-
               ulations typically contain toxaphene
               combined  with methyl parathion,
               an emulsifier, and a solvent such as
               xylene or  mineral  spirits. All tank
               farms  are diked and pumps are loca-
               ted in the diked  areas. Toxaphene
               arrives by tank truck. Endrin form-
               ulation is also done. The endrin ar-
               rives  at  the  plant  in drums. Four
               plants use a slab height loading sta-
               tion with the truck located  in a de-
               pressed loading pit. The  concrete
               floor of the pit ends in a sump which
               can  be pumped to an evaporation
               tank. All the other plants have a can-
               opy-covered loading dock which  is at
               truck height.

               The  whole  operation  —  storage,
               formulation, and loading — is  car-
               ried out within one building.

               Formulation is in a steel-roofed shed
               building.  The plant has a  cement
               curb around it, so  spills cannot be
               washed off the plant site. The load-
               ing dock is wide  open. Any spills
               are immediately  covered with  ab-
               sorbent which  is  shipped away for
               disposal.

               They  formulate   relatively  dilute
               formulations for use by homeown-
               ers. The entire operation is carried
               out indoors. The loading area is cov-
               ered with a roof. The loading dock
               also slopes toward the plant so  any
               spills would drain into the building.
               The  packing  materials they  use
               would  absorb any  spills resulting
               from broken containers.
                                               48

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                                     TABLE 5.3.2 (Continued)
Company
 Contact
   No.
   10
  States in Which
Formulation Plants
   are Located
       CA
Number of
  Plants
    1
Number of
Employees
     20
   11
      OR
                  45
   12
       MS
                  15
   13
       IL
                  50
   14
   15
       GA
       SC
                  23
 The contour of their land, combined
 with the large acreage of their plant
 site, precludes any runoff. Their pre-
 sent operations meet  local regula-
 tions which do not permit any dis-
 charge  by them  to sewage,  rivers,
 etc., no matter how indirect.  Pre-
 sently  their entire operation is con-
 ducted outdoors.  To  roof  their
 formulation area,  they  would have
 to cover an area 50 feet by 40 feet.

 All formulation  work  is done  in-
 doors.  Storage tanks are surroun-
 ded by dikes and the loading dock is
 covered.

 Manufacture  only  about  1000
 pounds of  toxaphene  formulation
 per year. The firm is located next to
 a cotton  field  where toxaphene  is
 applied by airplane. All  their opera-
 tions are indoors. Trucks back to the
 edge of the building  for  loading.
 The open space between the  build-
 ing and the truck is not greater than
 six  inches.

 Have ceased formulating pesticides
 subject to the proposed toxic stan-
 dards.  They used up their last sup-
 plies of aldrin/dieldrin  two  years
 ago. They said they contacted Shell
 for  more, but Shell indicated that
there  was  no more available  any-
 where.  Toxaphene has  not  been
 formulated  in  the plant  for  over
 five years.

 Formulation  is done  indoors. The
 loading dock is covered.

The formulations  are  done  out-
doors.  The  plant  has catch basins
so that all  runoff  is collected. If a
catch basin should exceed a critical
                                               49

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                                    TABLE 5.3.2 (Continued)

Company       States in Which
 Contact     Formulation Plants    Number of    Number of
   No.           are Located         Plants      Employees
                                                               level, it is drained into drums which
                                                               are disposed of at an approval land-
                                                               fill.

   16               IL                1             17         Purchase  formulated  material and
                                                               mix it into only one product. Sto-
                                                               rage and formulation are  indoors.
                                                               Loading is direct from the building
                                                               into vehicles which drive up against
                                                               it.
                                               50

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            6.0   LIMITATIONS OF  THE  ANALYSIS
6.1  TECHNICAL LIMITATIONS
     We completed our initial analysis in April 1976. At the time of its completion, we concluded
that the BPCTCA standards being proposed at that time would not have a measurable economic
impact on the manufacturers of pesticides. Subsequent to the analysis, a new Development
Document, dated August 1976, was prepared. Subsequent revisions were made to the cost models
in the new Development  Document; these revisions were dated August  16. 1976. The new
Development Document and its revisions made the proposed BPCTCA standards more stringent.
The net effect of the revisions was to invalidate the bases for our initial conclusion that there
would be no economic impact from the BPCTCA standards. The equipment that the pesticide
industry currently has in place meets, or nearly meets, the initially proposed effluent standards.
However, for the standards now proposed, it might be necessary for the industry to install a large
fraction of the equipment contained in the treatment model.

     The information required to determine — on a plant-by-plant basis — what needs to be
done to meet the effluent guidelines was not available while the report was being prepared. The
information is being prepared by ESE and will be published as a supplement to this report.

     While making the economic assessment discussed in this  report,  we identified certain
deficiencies and omissions in the cost models which placed further limitations on the analyses.
Among the technical areas which have contributed to the limiting of the economic analysis are:

     1. The Development Document does not adjust the effluent loadings to take into
        account effluents generated during the production of pesticide intermediates. Fail-
        ure to exclude these loadings from the cost model causes the  cost model to over-
        estimate the treatment costs that will be incurred. It should be noted, however,
        that the EPA's plan to have effluents generated by the production of intermediates
        covered by the organic chemicals standards  might result in some economic advan-
        tage to manufacturers  who  have  a large  effluent flow from their intermediate
        operations, or who are located within large organic chemical complexes.
     2. Simultaneous standards for BOD and COD, as well as the inclusion of a "total
        pesticides" effluent requirement, impose different treatment requirements for indi-
        vidual plants within a subcategory. For instance, a plant with an effluent having a
        high fraction of marginally biodegradable  material could conceivably meet the
        BOD requirement by upgrading its existing biological treatment system, while the
        COD  standard could conceivably force the plant to install  carbon adsorption.
        However, plants whose effluents have a lower fraction of marginally biodegradable
        material may  not be forced  to install carbon adsorption. Usually, the more the
        number of effluent parameters that must be controlled, the less possible it is to
       generalize about the type of treatment required. Therefore, an accurate estimate of
        BPCTCA treatment costs will require a plant-by-plant  assessment of required
       wastewater treatment equipment and processes.
     3. No estimate was made of the analytical costs that would be incurred in meeting the
       BPCTCA standards.  The standards now set a limitation on the total pesticide
       content of the effluent. Consequently, complicated chemical analyses which will
       significantly increase the cost of compliance  are now required.

                                         51

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6.2  ECONOMIC LIMITATIONS
     The economic impact of increased production costs for an industry is customarily measured
in terms of the resulting change in the industry's production quantity  and the prices of its
products. The effect of compliance costs is to modify upward the fixed and variable costs (in some
combination) of each complying plant in the industry. To the extent that variable costs are
raised, the likely resultant  increase in  marginal costs  relative to marginal revenue  leads to
reductions in output. These reductions, coupled with the pricing decisions  of sellers who are able
to affect price, result in higher prices in the industry's market.  From the new equilibrium level of
price and output one can then estimate the effects on industry profitability and employment.

     In this report, price and output effects from compliance costs are  treated qualitatively.
Quantitative determination  of economic impact with estimation of price and output levels was
not considered practical for the reasons described below.

     Quantitative determination of the price and output effects from compliance costs requires
data such as historical output quantities and prices, raw materials quantities and prices, plant
capacity, and fixed and  variable  costs for typical plants and typical companies  within the
industry. These data were not available for use in this analysis,  and to  generate them would
require an effort that exceeds the time and resources available.

     In lieu of data analysis, we relied on the judgment of ADL industry specialists who are
knowledgeable  about the  pesticide industry, its economics, and the economics of pesticide use.
This was particularly true in regard to the question of price elasticity of demand  — i.e., the
responsiveness  of the  quantity of a pesticide demanded to a change in its price or to a change in
the price of a substitute product. Given the availability of data, elasticities can  be inferred for
specific ranges of output and sales levels. The unavailability of data resulted in a  qualitative
consideration of elasticity, based on ADL industry specialists' knowledge of the economics of
pesticide use and the  factors influencing the demand for pesticides.

     The qualitative  approach involved judgments as to whether all or significant  portions of
compliance costs could be passed on to consumers. These judgments were based primarily on the
number and price competitiveness and efficacy of other products capable  of substituting for the
product being studied and the cost/benefit aspects  of pesticide use. It should be noted,  however,
that cost increases are seldom totally absorbed or totally passed on to the consumer.

     It is more realistic to expect that some portion of the cost increase would be passed on to
consumers in the form of higher prices, and that some would be absorbed by producers, resulting
in a lower output and profits. Our judgmental approach precluded a precise determination of
these effects. So while we do conclude that the economic impact for certain subcategories in the
pesticide industry will be low, medium, or high in terms of their effects on output or profitability,
we cannot be more specific  as to the magnitude of these impacts and cannot reasonably antici-
pate possible plant closings, employment effects, or community impacts.
                                            52

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             APPENDIX A
INFORMATION ON PESTICIDE MANUFACTURE
                 53

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FIRM:
PRODUCT:
PLANT LOCATION:
EMPLOYMENT:
Kerr-McGee Chemical
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Methyl  parathion  (organo-phosphate  subcategory)

Hamilton, Mississippi

N.A.
CAPACITY:
EXPANSION PLANS:
 17  million Ibs. (increased from 14 million  Ibs. in
 1974); capacity utilization is believed to be light.

 N.A.
INTEGRATION:
Backward:  none — purchased raw materials
Forward: N.A.
PRODUCTION:
VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFC:
FOREIGN SALES:
U.S. MARKET SIZE:
MARKET SHARE:
COMPETITION:
WASTE TREATMENT:
COMMENT:
N.A.

Price  (1974)  = $.78/lb.  (based on Tariff  Commis-
sion) Value of production = S12MM (est.)

N.A.  — (a substantial  share of U.S. production  is
exported)

70 million Ibs. (est. 1974); production

Kerr-McGee - Estimated to be approximately 18%.

Other producers:  Monsanto, Stauffer
Other  products:   Methyomyl,  toxaphene, azodrin
(Shell)

Kerr-McGee is currently  attempting to comply with
state regulatory requirements. They  are separating
waste  stream from the methyl parathion manufactur-
ing process in order to install both primary and secon-
dary treatment for the phosphorus waste products.

The market for methyl parathion is highly competi-
tive because of its nonproprietary status and because
of a wide variety of competing products. In the late
1960's and early  1970's,  there was substantial over-
capacity for methyl parathion and as a result, several
producers closed down.
                                      55

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COMMENTS: (cont.)               In recent years, the ban on DDT and  shortages of
                                  competing products increased  demand for methyl
                                  parathion significantly  to the extent  that methyl
                                  parathion was also in short supply.

                                  Monsanto, the  major producer of methyl parathion,
                                  has  what ADL believes are important competitive
                                  advantages  over  Kerr-McGee.  First,  Monsanto is
                                  backward integrated into  raw material production
                                  (Monsanto  produces  P2 S5  and elemental phospho-
                                  rus). Second, Monsanto  discharges their wastes into a
                                  municipal sewage system.

                                  Kerr-McGee  is  currently  planning to  install waste
                                  treatment facilities  for  their production of methyl
                                  parathion. At  current   price levels they should  be
                                  able to  absorb the increased  manufacturing costs.
                                  However, an increase  in the supply of competing
                                  products  expected  in   1976  may   place  methyl
                                  parathion under price  pressure for the  next  several
                                  years. If so, Kerr-McGee may reconsider their plans
                                  to install waste  treatment facilities.
                                        56

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FIRM:                           Shell Chemical Company,
                                San Ramon, California

PLANT:                         Denver, Colorado

PRODUCT:                       Methomyl, azodrin®, bidrin®, ciodrin®, DDVP

EMPLOYMENT:                  320

CAPACITY:                      N.A.

EXPANSION PLANS:              Shell is building a large triazine facility in Mobile,
                                Alabama  for the production of Bladex (current prod-
                                uct is contracted in both Europe and U.S.)

INTEGRATION:                  Backward:  Shell Chemical produces most of its raw
                                materials.

                                Forward: Formulate at Denver
                                Mobile (DDVP)
                                Princeton, N.J. (DDVP)

PRODUCTION:                   N.A.

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFC:   N.A.

FOREIGN SALES:                N.A.

U.S. MARKET SIZE:              N.A.

MARKET SHARE:                N.A.

COMPETITION:                  These  products are proprietary except methomyl
                                which is  also produced by DuPont. The products do
                                compete with other proprietary products.

                                DDVP competes with Dibrom  (Chevron), Dursban
                                (Dow), Diazinon (Ciba Geigy) in the domestic market.

                                Azodrin competes with methyl parathion/toxaphene
                                and Galecron  (Ciba Geigy) in the cotton market.
                                      57

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TREATMENT PRACTICES:         Shell is currently installing an incineration facility
                                  required by the state to dispose of waste products.
                                  Residue material will be shipped to an approved land-
                                  fill.

IMPACT ON OPERATION:          In  the  past several years, Shell has been able to pass
                                  on increased costs for pollution control. However, in
                                  1976, ADL believes the supply/demand situation will
                                  make it unlikely for Shell  to pass on the additional
                                  treatment  costs from  the incineration  of waste
                                  products.
                                         58

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FIRM:                         Vineland Chemical Company
                               Vineland, N.J.

PRODUCT:                     Arsenicals (MSMA, DSMA, Cacodylic Acid)

PLANT LOCATION:              Vineland, N.J.

EMPLOYMENT:                 60-80

CAPACITY:                     N.A.

EXPANSION PLANS:             N.A.

INTEGRATION:                 N.A.

PRODUCTION:                  2-3 MM Ibs. (est.)

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFC:   N.A.

FOREIGN SALES:                N.A.

U.S. MARKET SIZE:              40 MM Ibs. (est.)

MARKET SHARE:                N.A.

COMPETITION:                  Other Producers:  Ansul, Diamond Shamrock
                               Other Products:   The  competition by other prod-
                                              ucts is limited.

WASTE TREATMENT:            Have no process water discharge.

COMMENT:                     There are few competing products with the arsenicals
                               and  because  of its necessity in the cotton market, it
                               is highly price inelastic.
                                     59

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FIRM:                           Chevron Chemical Company
                                Ortho Division
                                San Francisco, California 94104

PRODUCT:                      Captan (chlorinated organo-sulfur compound)

PLANT LOCATION:              N.A.

EMPLOYMENT:                  N.A.

CAPACITY:                      N.A.

EXPANSION PLANS:              N.A.

INTEGRATION:                  N.A.

PRODUCTION:                   (1974) 19 million Ibs. (est.); plant built in 1954.

FOREIGN PRODUCTION:         Chevron (in joint with Stauffer) also produces Captan
                                in France and Israel.

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFC:   1974 - 19 MM Ibs. x $.75/lb = $14.3 MM

FORMULATION:                 Chevron (in  joint with Stauffer) has formulation
                                facilities in New Jersey (2), Midwest (2), West Coast
                                (3), Florida (1)

COMPETITION:                  Other producers - production is a joint venture with
                                Stauffer.
                                Other  products   —  dithiocarbamates,  benolates
                                (DuPont)

COMMENTS:                     Although Captan  is  competitive  with other fungi-
                                cides, it is a  low cost product. Assuming treatment
                                costs are moderate, Chevron might be able to pass on
                                treatment costs and still remain highly competitive.

WASTE TREATMENT:            N.A.
                                      60

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FIRM:


PRODUCT:

PLANT LOCATION:


EMPLOYMENT:

CAPACITY:


EXPANSION PLANS:

INTEGRATION:


PRODUCTION:

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.

PERCENT OF TOTAL
  PESTICIDE SALES:

U.S. MARKET SIZE:


EXPORTS:

DISTRIBUTION, U.S.:



COMPETITION:
COMMENT:
Rohm & Haas
Philadelphia, Pa.

Dithiocarbamates

Philadelphia, Pa.
(some production of other pesticides at Bristol, Pa.)

300 (200 hourly); for all pesticide manufacturing

N.A.  (Believed  to be operating  close to capacity
levels)

None announced

Backward:   Purchase most raw materials
Forward:   Formulate 100% at Philadelphia plant

300 million Ibs.

1974 - 30  MM Ibs. x $.68/lb. = $20.4 MM
15.3%

1974 production = 35.4 MM  Ibs.  (based on Tariff
Commission)

25% of production

Own formulation - 100% of production
Plant - Philadelphia
Common Form — 80% powder

Other Producers:  DuPont,  FMC,  Alco  Chemical,
                Buckman    Labs,    Vanderbilt
                Chemical
Other Products:   Bravo® (Diamond Shamrock)
                Benlate (DuPont)
                Captan (Chevron)

Dithiocarbamates are nonproprietary products which
compete in a highly competitive market. The smaller
producers may be more adversely impacted because
of the lack  of economies of scale in treatment. The
larger producers,  however, may  be unable  to fully
pass on  cost increases because of competition from
nonmetallo-organic products. The ability to pass on
costs depends on how severely  the proposed stan-
dards impact other fungicide products.
      61

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OTHER PRODUCTS:


PLANT:

PRODUCTION:

CAPACITY:

FOREIGN SALES:

FORMULATION:

COMPETITION:
OTHER PRODUCTS:



PLANT:

PRODUCTION:

CAPACITY:

FORMULATION:


COMPETITION.
1.    Kelthane®  (Dicoful)  —  halogenated organic
   sub category

Philadelphia

4MMlbs. (1975)

N.A.

25%

100%, Philadelphia, Pa.

Other Producers:  None (patent reacting expiration)
Other Products:   Chlorobenzilate  (acaricide  Ciba-
                Geigy)
                                Comment:
                Highly cost competitive.
2.   Karathane® (dinocap) — foliage  fungicide and
   miticide  [2-(l-Methyl-n-heptyl)  — 4, 6-dinitro-
   phenylcrotonate]

Philadelphia

< 1 MM Ibs. (est.)

N.A.

Dikar® - 90% dithane/10%  Karathane; a fungicide/
miticide for the citrus market.

R&H  claims  that because of unique characteristics,
dinocap experiences  minimal  competition  in its
particular markets.
                                      62

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FIRM:
PRODUCT:
PLANT LOCATION:

EMPLOYMENT:

CAPACITY:

INTEGRATION:


PRODUCTION:

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.

FOREIGN SALES:

U.S. MARKET SIZE:

WASTE DISPOSAL:


COMPETITION:
COMMENT:
Thompson-Hayward
Kansas City, Kansas

2,4,5-T,  iso-octylester (2,4,5 trichlorophenoxyacetic
acid, iso-octylester)

2,4-D salts & esters, silvex

Kansas City, Kansas

N.A.

5 MM Ib/year (est.)

Forward:   Formulate at Kansas City plant
Backward:  Purchases raw materials

2-4 MM Ibs. (est.)

N.A.

N.A.

8-10 MM Ibs.

Oxidation pond, chemical treatment (acid or caustic),
disposal to city sewer
Other Producers:
Other Products:
Dow
Brush control products; i.e.,
Banvel
Thompson-Hayward is a small pesticide manufacturer
with a small manufacturing facility. The cost impact
of effluent controls could be more severe than  the
costs developed for the "small" plant in the Develop-
ment  Document; however, T-H now discharges into
the municipal treatment system. T-H would probably
be  placed at  a  severe  competitive disadvantage
vis-a-vis Dow,  the major  producer of 2,4,5-T if it
incurred the estimated treatment costs in the Devel-
opment Document in  order  to meet  the  proposed
standards.
                                       63

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FIRM:                          American Cyanamid Company
                               Princeton, N.J.

PRODUCT:                     Principally Malathion and Thimet®

PLANT LOCATION:              Linden, N.J.

EMPLOYMENT:                 N.A.

CAPACITY:                     N.A.

EXPANSION PLANS:             N.A.

INTEGRATION:                 Backward:  Purchase P2 S5

                               Forward:   Contract formulation of Thimet® — sell
                                          technical  malathion to formulators —
                                          (some on site formulation)

PRODUCTION:                  Malathion  - 30 MM Ibs. (est.)
                               Thimet®   -  6 MM Ibs. (est.)

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:  Malathion  - 30 MM Ibs. x $1.10 = $33 MM
                               Thimet®   -  6 MM Ibs. x $2.50 = $ 15 MM

EXPORTS:                     Malathion (5% of production)
                               Thimet®   - small

COMPETITION:                 Other Producers  - None
                               Other Products   — Malathion — toxaphene, methyl
                                                 parathion, methanomyl
                                               —   Thimet   —  other systemic
                                                 insecticides

DISTRIBUTION, U.S.:            Own Formulation - Malathion 5% (for export)
                                               - Thimet® - small

                               Common Forms  — Malathion — dust and powder
                                               - Thimet® - EL

                               Shipped in (Technical material):
                                               -  Malathion  - tanks (10-12%),
                                                 5,30, 55 gal. drums
                                               — Thimet® — 55 gal. drums
                                     64

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FIRM:
PRODUCT:
PLANT LOCATION:
EMPLOYMENT:
CAPACITY:
OTHER PRODUCTS:
INTEGRATION:
ANNUAL PRODUCTION:
VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.
COMPETITION:
Elanco Products, Div. of Eli Lilly Company
Indianapolis, Indiana

Treflan® (trifluralin)

Lafayette, Indiana

N.A.

N.A.

Large pharmaceutical manufacturing complex

Backward:  Purchase raw materials
Forward:   Formulate on site

20-25 MM Ibs. (est.)

1974 - 25 MM Ibs. x $3.90/lb. A.I. = $97.5 MM
Other Producers
Other Products
                                                               Lasso, Amiben,
- None
— Soybeans:
  Sencor
- Cotton:  Cotoran, Sencor
SHARE OF U.S. MARKET:


EXPORTS:

DISTRIBUTION, U.S.:



OTHER FORMULATIONS:



WASTE TREATMENT:
Soybeans - 35-40%
Cotton - ?

Large (25-30% of production?)

Own Formulation: on-site 99+%)
Common Form:  Liquid
Shipped in:  5-gal. cans

< 1%, contract formulations

Common form: Granules (2.5% A.I.)

NaCl  and process  water  are  sent  to a biological
treatment plant  which  services all of the Lafayette
facility.  The  plant uses   neutralization,  settling,
aeration, and  biological treatment.  The  Treflan
units constitute a significant part of the waste going
to the treatment facility.
                                      65

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FIRM:                           Ciba-Geigy

PRODUCT:                      Atrazine

PLANT LOCATION:               St. Gabriel, La.

EMPLOYMENT:                  N.A.

CAPACITY:                      120 MM Ibs. (est.)

OTHER PRODUCTS PRODUCED:   Other triazine products

INTEGRATION:                  Backward:  Purchase raw materials
                                Forward:    Formulation on site

PRODUCTION:                   100 MM Ibs.

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:   (1974) 100 MM Ibs. x $2.30/lb. = $230 MM

EXPORTS:                      Small

DISTRIBUTION, U.S.:             Own formulation: on site
                                Common  Form: WP (80% A.I.) and Liquid (4 lb./
                                              gal.)
                                Shipped in:  WP - 5 lb. bags liquid
                                           — 1,5 gal. containers.

                                Other formulators:  Not known

WASTE TREATMENT:            Waste produced:  NaCl  and  HCN  from  cyanuric
                                                chloride. Other liquid  waste  in
                                                pesticide production.

                                Waste Disposal:   Wastes  from  cyanuric  chloride
                                                production  receive  preliminaary
                                                treatment (pH adjustment and fil-
                                                tration) and  then disposed of in
                                                a deep well. Other wastes were
                                                disposed of in the river; however,
                                                in recent years significant invest-
                                                ment  has  been made in waste
                                                treatment facilities.
                                      66

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FIRM:                          Union Carbide
                                New York, New York

PRODUCT:                      Sevin (Carbaryl)

OTHER PRODUCTS PRODUCED:   Pesticide intermediates as well as many other petro-
                                chemical products in a large chemical complex.

PLANT LOCATION:              Institute, W. Virginia

EMPLOYMENT:                  N.A.

CAPACITY:                      90 MM Ibs. (est.)

EXPANSION PLANS:              Carbide  has  announced plans to increase  produc-
                                tion of Sevin by 50% and also begin  production of
                                Temik at the Institute site.

INTEGRATION:                  Backward:    Carbide manufactures most of its own
                                            raw materials
                                Formulation: none

PRODUCTION:                   80-90 MM Ibs. (est.)

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:   (1974) 80 MM x $.95/lb. - $75 MM

EXPORTS:                       An estimated  1/3 —  1/2 of production is exported.

DISTRIBUTION, U.S.:             Own Formulation: None

                                Shipped in (technical materials): 50 lb. bags
                                Other Formulators:   6  contract and  20 customer
                                                  formulators
                                Common Form:      WP (2-5 lb. bags)
                                                  Liquid (5 gal. drums)

COMPETITION:                   Other producers:  None

WASTE TREATMENT:             All processes water goes into the plant's secondary
                                waste treatment systems.
                                     67

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FIRM:                         Rhodia, Inc./Chipman Division

PRODUCT:                     2,4-D

PLANT LOCATION:              Portland, Oregon

EMPLOYMENT:                 N.A.

CAPACITY:                     N.A.

EXPANSION PLANS:             None announced

INTEGRATION:                 Forward: some formulation on site

PRODUCTION:                  3-5 MM Ibs./year

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:  (1974) 4 MM Ibs. x $.85/lb. A.I. = $3.4 MM (est.)

FOREIGN SALES:               None

U.S. MARKET SIZE:              60 MM Ibs. (est.)

MARKET SHARE:               5-10%

COMPETITION:                 Dow is major producer (90% of production)

WASTE TREATMENT:            Over $1 MM investment in continuous flow charcoal
                              absorption plant which is said to reduce phenolics
                              below l.OMg/1.
                                   68

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FIRM:                         Great Lakes Chemical Corporation

PRODUCT:                     Methyl bromide

PLANT LOCATION:             El Dorado, Arkansas

EMPLOYMENT:                 N.A.

CAPACITY:                    10 MM Ibs./year 1973

EXPANSION PLANS:             Currently expanding capacity

INTEGRATION:                 Backward - Bromine

PRODUCTION:                 N.A.

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:  (1973) 10 MM Ibs. x $.34/lb. = $3.4 MM (est.)

FOREIGN SALES:               0

U.S. MARKET SIZE:             30 MM Ibs. (est.)

MARKET SHARE:               33% (est.)

COMPETITION:                 Other Producers:  Dow, Michigan Chemical

WASTE TREATMENT:           They  claim to have no effluent to surface water.
                              Scrub with caustic, convert to bromine which they
                              recover.
                                    69

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FIRM:                         Hooker Chemical Corporation
                              Niagara Falls, New York

PRODUCT:                     Lindane, BHC

PLANT LOCATION:              Niagara Falls, New York

EMPLOYMENT:                 N.A.

CAPACITY:                    7 MM Ibs. BHC/year

EXPANSION PLANS:             None - its production has been declining for a num-
                              ber of years because of replacement by phosphate-
                              based insecticides

INTEGRATION:                 Hooker produces both benzene  and chlorine,  the
                              principal raw material for BHC product.

PRODUCTION:                  0.5 MM Ibs. (1972)

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:  0.5 MM Ibs. x $.67/lb. = $0.3 mm

FOREIGN SALES:               N.A.

U.S. MARKET SIZE:             0.5 MM Ibs.

MARKET SHARE:               100%

COMPETITION:                 N.A.

WASTE TREATMENT:           They do not believe they are producing effluents.
                                    70

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FIRM:                         Bayer/Chemagro

PRODUCT:                     Disulfoton (di-Syston)

PLANT LOCATION:             Kansas City, Missouri

EMPLOYMENT:                 N.A.

CAPACITY:                    N.A.

EXPANSION PLANS:             None

INTEGRATION:                 Backward:  Purchase raw materials
                              Forward:    Formulate on site

PRODUCTION:                  6 MM  Ibs./year

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:  (1974) 6 MM Ibs. x $1.75/lb. = $10.5 MM

FOREIGN SALES:               N.A.

U.S. MARKET SIZE:             N.A.

MARKET SHARE:               100%

COMPETITION:                 Other  producers: none

WASTE TREATMENT:            $ 1.9 MM wastewater treatment plant.

COMMENT:                    N.A.

DISTRIBUTION:                 Technical  Material - 40% shipped in  55 gal. drums
                              Formulated Product — EC — (6 Ib./gal.) granular

                              Shipped In  — EC  — 1, 30,  50 gal. drums; granular
                                         55 gal. drums
                                   71

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OTHER FORMULATORS:         Malathion - N.A.
                               Thimet® — Contract Formulators

COMMON FORMS:               Malathion - dust and powder
                               Thimet® - 10-15% granules (10, 15, 50 Ib. bags)

WASTE TREATMENT:            The wash water and other liquid waste from pesticide
                               production goes to  a holding pond.  The waste is
                               eventually barged to sea and dumped.
                                     72

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FIRM:                          Shell Chemical
                                San Ramon, California

PRODUCT:                      Aldrin/Dieldrin

PLANT LOCATION:              Denver, Colorado

OTHER PRODUCTS PRODUCED:   Numerous  other products are produced  at Denver;
                                Aldrin/Dieldrin was a separate unit which has been
                                closed down completely and is standing by.

EMPLOYMENT:                  Approximately 80

CAPACITY:                      ADL estimates they  were operating at around 50%
                                capacity.

EXPAN S1ON PLAN S:              Believe it is unlikely.

INTEGRATION:                  Backward:   No; did not make raw materials.
                                Forward:    Sell all  products  under Shell  label.
                                           However, Shell  contracted formulation
                                           of some products with firms in Midwest.
                                           Some formulation by Shell.

PRODUCTION:                   None at present, 8-10 million Ibs. in 1971.

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:   None at present, $1.35/lb. x  9 MM Ibs. = $12.15 MM
                                (1971 volume at 1975 prices)

U.S. MARKET SIZE:              Approximately 8 MM Ibs.  (1971)

EXPORTS-                       In 1971: 0.5-1.0 MM Ibs.

VALUE OF EXPORTS:            $0.675 - 1.350 MM (1971 volume at 1975 prices)

WORLD MARKET SIZE:           Contact Shell (London).

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, U.S.:     Own Formulation - Percent of Product Produced:
                                <5%
                                Plant Location: at Denver
                                Other Formulation at Plant: Yes
                                Common Forms: See Other Formulators
                                Mixed with: No mixing
                                      73

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Shipped In:

  From Manufacturer: 30  gal.  (350 Ib.)  drums —
                     95% solution
  From Formulator:   50  Ib. bags,  5  and 30  gal.
                     containers.

  Other Formulators:
                     — Percent of  Product Pro-
                       duced - 95%
                     — Number  of Formulators:
                       Two  companies  —  had
                       multiple locations for  for-
                       mulating.
                     — Names and locations  of
                       some  major  formulators:

                       Helena   Chemical,    Des
                       Moines, Iowa

                       Imperial Chemical (out of
                       business)    Shenandoah,
                       Iowa

                       Dwight  Habermill  (shut
                       down  formulating opera-
                       tion when  contract  was
                       lost)

  Common forms:  Granular  —  oil  solutions,  EC,
                  liquid fertilizer

  Mixed with: None

  Shipped In: From formulator:  5,  30 and 55  gal.
                              containers,  50  Ib.
                              bags
      74

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DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, FOREIGN. Public Sector:
Some governments,  Egypt as an
example,   purchase   the   entire
year's  requirement  for  a pesti-
cide   on  a  government  tender
basis.
                                    Private Sector:  Shell  (London)  has  controlling
                                                   interest in firms in 102 countries
                                                   who either formulate and/or man-
                                                   ufacture. These firms handle Shell
                                                   as well as other  firms' products.
                                                   Essentially the foreign marketing
                                                   system  is  very similar  to  U.S.
                                                   (except in cases such  as Egypt):
                                                   manufacturer,  formulator,  dis-
                                                   tributor, dealer.
                                         75

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FIRM:                           Riverside Chemical
                                Memphis, Tennessee

PRODUCT:                      Toxaphene

PLANT LOCATION:               Groves, Texas
                                (Bison bought Sonford, tore down old plant, and
                                built new one which Riverside bought.)

OTHER PRODUCTS PRODUCED:   Chlorinated organic compounds (75% of plant sales
                                are toxaphene; 25% are other chlorinated organics.)

EMPLOYMENT:                  291 or 5.8% of Riverside employment of 500.

CAPACITY:                      Approximately  15  MM   Ibs.; operating  at 60%
                                capacity.

EXPANSION PLANS:              No announced plans. Recently finished (August 1975)
                                doubling plant  capacity.  This permitted  them to
                                produce all the toxaphene utilized by Riverside.

INTEGRATION:                  Backward:  None
                                Forward:   Own 15 formulators which formulate all
                                          toxaphene produced by Riverside. River-
                                          side distributes all its toxaphene  prod-
                                          ucts. 50% is sold through own dealers.

PRODUCTION:                   8-10 million Ibs.

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:   Using  1974  price and 1975 production:  $2.3 to
                                $2.9 MM

PERCENT OF TOTAL MANU-
  FACTURER SALES:             Using 1974 price, 1975 production, and 1974 com-
                                pany sales: 2.3-2.9%

U.S. MARKET SIZE:               50-65 MM Ibs. (1972-1975)

PERCENT OF U.S. MARKET:       12-20%
1. For entire plant.
                                      76

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EXPORTS:
VALUE OF EXPORTS:
WORLD MARKET SIZE:
1974  — exported one small lot in  contract which
came  with purchase  of production plant. 1975  —
No exports.

N.A.

No estimate
PERCENT OF WORLD MARKET:   Presently 0%

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, U.S.:
Own Formulation -  Percent of Product Produced:
100%

Plant Locations: 15 facilities

Other  Formulation  at   Plants: Formulate  other
materials  particularly  for  cotton  (EPN-methyl
parathion, endrin-methyl parathion,  malathion). 40-
50% of formulation business is toxaphene based.

Common Forms:  EC

Mixed with: Methyl parathion

Shipped in:

  From Manufacturer: 30 and 55 gal. drums
  From Formulator:   5, 30 and 55 gal. containers

Shipped to:

  Distributors:   None goes to non-Riverside dis-
                tributors
FOREIGN DISTRIBUTION
  SYSTEMS:
                                   Dealers:       50%  moves  through  Riverside
                                                 dealers.
Riverside has no market structure or experience in
foreign marketing of pesticides.
                                       77

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FIRM:
PRODUCT:
PLANT LOCATION:
OTHER PRODUCTS PRODUCED:
EMPLOYMENT:
CAPACITY:
EXPANSION PLANS:
INTEGRATION:
Montrose Chemical Company
Union, New Jersey

DDT

Torrance, California

Montrose only produces DDT input products, DDT
and DDT byproducts.

Torrance plant for  DDT  -  175-200 depending on
current  production levels. Nevada  plant for inputs
-85

80 MM Ibs.; operating at 50-70% capacity.

At  present they are  operating  under  capacity so
they probably have  no  plans for expansion. Presently
there  are numerous  production  facilities  in the
world:  Eastern Europe  — 4 to 5; Germany —  1;
France  —  1;  Spain —  1  (subsidiary  of  France);
Argentina — 1; Mexico — 2 (Govt. and Diamond);
Brazil — 1 (Hoechst); Pakistan —  2; India —  1; Main-
land  China  —  produces, but unknown quantity;
Japan — discontinued  operations;  South Africa  —
discontinued but considering starting up again.

Backward:  Produce chloral and mono-chlorobenzine
           in Nevada (some small quantities are
           sold; most is used in producing DDT  at
           Torrance).  These are two of the three
           products used in DDT  production. The
           third is sulfuric acid  which they  pur-
           chase from outside sources.
                                 Forward:   Formulate all their public health com-
                                            pounds; they formulate  only minimal
                                            amounts  of  DDT  used for agricultural
                                            purposes.  They  own  no  distributors
                                            facilities.
PRODUCTION:
40-60 MM Ibs. depending on market conditions for
given year.
                                       78

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VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:  Use 50 MM Ibs. - $22.7 MM
PERCENT OF TOTAL MANU-
  FACTURER SALES:
EXPORTS:
VALUE OF EXPORTS:
WORLD MARKET SIZE:
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, U.S.:
Since  they sell only DDT inputs, DDT,  and  DDT
byproducts,  100%  of  their  market is  related  to
their DDT production.

40 to 60 MM  Ibs.

$22.7 MM

80-100 MM Ibs. depending on foreign aid and public
health budgets, and on crop acreage.
PERCENT OF WORLD MARKET:   50%
Own Formulation  - Percent of Product Produced:
52% (100% of public health; < 5% of agricultural)

Plant Location: Torrance, California

Other Formulation at Plant:  No

Common Forms:  75% water dispersable powder for
public health use

Mixed  with:   dusts, solutions, wettable powders,
emulsifiable concentrates

Shipped in:

  From Manufacturer: Sell  in  50  Ib.  bags which
                    may be  palletized up to a
                    ton.
                                  From Formulator:
                    For public health market, sell
                    in fiber cartons or drums of
                    75-200 Ibs.; for public health
                    market  like  WHO, 35  kilo
                    (77 Ib.) container is standard.
                                Other Formulators: Percent  of Product Produced:
                                                 48%

                                Number of Formulators: Unknown.

                                      79

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DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, U.S.:
  /cont \                          Common Forms: dusts, solutions, wettable powders,
                                  emulsifiable concentrates.

                                  Mixed with:  Pyrophyllite or Talc to prevent caking.

FOREIGN DISTRIBUTION
  SYSTEM:                       Public Sector:  Sold to various international agencies
                                  such as Pan American Health Organization, WHO,
                                  UN,  and to ministries of health of various govern-
                                  ments.   Sold  on  competitive  bid  basis in  most
                                  instances. Demand usually exceeds ability to buy.

                                  Private Sector:  For use primarily  on cotton with
                                  some soybean use. System of distribution varies from
                                  government purchase  and control to systems similar
                                  to that found in U.S. agricultural market is slowly
                                  declining due  to increased competition  of other
                                  products;  acreage  drops   and  banning  in  some
                                  countries have also caused agricultural usage to fall.
                                         80

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FIRM:                          Hercules
                                Wilmington, Delaware

PRODUCT:                      Toxaphene

PLANT LOCATION:              Brunswick, Georgia and joint-venture in Nicaragua

OTHER PRODUCTS PRODUCED:   (See listing in Directory of Chemical Producers)

EMPLOYMENT:                  80 in production; 50 in sales and sales-related work.

CAPACITY:                      Unknown

EXPANSION PLANS:              Have begun construction on a plant in Brazil with a
                                25 MM  ton capacity. Construction  has been tem-
                                porarily halted due to Brazilian government's desire
                                to move location to northern Brazil. Problem has not
                                been resolved. No other expansion plans announced.

INTEGRATION:                  Backward:  Hercules produces its own camphene.

                                Forward:   None.  However, Hercules does  contract
                                in the U.S. for small amount of formulation to meet
                                market needs in certain  countries with  no formul-
                                ators.

PRODUCTION:                   1974 - 54 MM Ibs.

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.:   1974 - $ 15.7 MM
                                1975  - $20.5 MM

PERCENT OF TOTAL MANU-
  FACTURER SALES:            1974 - 1% (based on Hercules sales of $ 1,525 MM)

U.S. MARKET SIZE:              50-65 MM Ibs. (1972-75 range)

PERCENT OF U.S. MARKET:       40-60%

EXPORTS:                      Hercules exports are estimated to be 24-28 MM Ibs.

VALUE OF EXPORTS:            1974 - $7-8 MM (1974 price and quantity)
                                1975 - $9-11 MM (1975 price; 1974 quantity)

WORLD MARKET SIZE:           < 50 MM Ibs. (excluding U.S.)
                                     81

-------
PERCENT OF WORLD MARKET:   45-55%

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, U.S.:
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM,
  FOREIGN.
Own formulation —  Percent of Product Produced:
Essentially none

Other Formulators — Percent of Product Produced
Essentially 100%

Number  of  Formulators: ~ 80;  15-20  formulate
bulk of the toxaphene produced by Hercules

Names and locations of some major formulators:

  Walpole Chemical
  Fort Valley, Georgia

  Valley Chemical
  Greenville, Mississippi

  Cotton State
  Pine Bluff, Arkansas

  Apollo Industries
  Pine Bluff, Arkansas

Common forms:  EC

Mixed with:  Methyl parathion

Shipped in:    From  Manufacturer:   (see Riverside
information)
South Africa has a 5 MM Ib. plant apparently  pro-
ducing at or near capacity. East Germany is  pro-
ducing a toxaphene-like substance of a low quality.
E.  German  capacity  and  sales  are  not known.
Hercules is involved in a joint venture in Nicaragua.

Hercules deals primarily with formulators and govern-
ments for all their overseas' sales. Small  quantities
are  formulated  in the U.S. on  contract  for sale in
national markets where formulators are not operat-
ing.
                                        82

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FIRM:


PRODUCT.

PLANT LOCATION.

OTHER PRODUCTS PRODUCED:



EMPLOYMENT:

CAPACITY:


EXPANSION PLANS:


INTEGRATION:
PRODUCTION:

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.


PERCENT OF TOTAL MANU-
  FACTURER SALES.

U.S. MARKET SIZE:

PERCENT OF U.S. MARKET:

EXPORTS.

VALUE OF EXPORTS:



WORLD MARKET SIZE:
Velsicol Chemical Company
Chicago, Illinois

Endrin

Memphis, Tennessee

Several  other  products  are  produced; however,
Endrin is produced in a separate  unit within the
plant.

20-25

Not known; are believed to be operating well below
capacity because of a decline in U.S. market.

No announced plans for expansion  in U.S. or over-
seas.

Backward: Buy most inputs as raw materials and
          process forward.  Do  have  own captive
          source of chlorine and cyclo-pentadiene.

Forward:   Formulate at the Memphis plant.

6 MM Ibs.

1974-est.: $14.2 MM
1975 -$16.65 MM
21.5% (based on 1974 sales)

1.0 MM Ibs. (less in 1975)

Approximately 100%

5 MM Ibs.

Approximately $14.5 MM in  1975 (price range for
technical materials: $2.40-3.25 per Ib. in 1975 - in
foreign markets).

20-25 MM Ibs. (majority of  other production be-
lieved to be by Dutch Shell).
PERCENT OF WORLD MARKET:   25-30%
                                    83

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DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, U.S.:     Own Formulation -  Percent of Product  Produced:
                                 > 50%

                                 Plant Location: Memphis, Tennessee

                                 Common Forms:  EC

                                 Mixed with:  Methyl parathion  (for cotton market
                                 generally mixed  with  methyl parathion; for small
                                 grain markets, generally sold alone).

                                 Shipped in:

                                   From Manufacturer: 30 and 55 gal. drums

                                   From Formulator: 5, 30 and 55 gal. drums

                                 Other Formulators: —  Percent of Product Pro-
                                                      duced: 50%

                                                   —  Number of Formulators:

                                                      10-12   major   insecticide.
                                                      However  63 companies have
                                                      Endrin labels registered.

                                 Names and locations of some  major  formulators:

                                   Walpole Chemical
                                   Fort Valley, Georgia

                                   Helena Chemical
                                   Memphis, Tennessee

                                   Farm  Supply Co-op
                                   Greenwood, Mississippi

                                   Cleveland Chemical
                                   Cleveland, Mississippi

                                   Triangle
                                   Montgomery, Alabama

                                 Common Forms:  EC

                                 Mixed with: Methyl parathion

                                 Shipped in:   From formulator:  5, 30  and 55 gal.
                                 containers.

                                      84

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DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM,
  FOREIGN:                      Most export is in technical form; only a very small
                                  amount is already  formulated.  In  Latin  America,
                                  60% is formulated  by  Velsicol  controlled  firms
                                  (Brazil  and Mexico)  or  by  firms  contracted  to
                                  Velsicol.  Velsicol then acts as distributor for this
                                  60%. Approximately 15% (of the 60%) is  then sold
                                  by Velsicol in  the capacity of a dealer. The remain-
                                  ing  85% is moved by  other dealers. The other 40%
                                  of Endrin  originating with Velsicol sold  in  Latin
                                  America  is  formulated and moved  through  other
                                  non-affiliated firms. There is  minimal government
                                  purchasing  in  Latin  America.  Velsicol is gaining
                                  volume and market share in Latin America.

                                  In Africa  and the Near East, much of marketing is
                                  through governments.  Loss or  gain of a single con-
                                  tract can significantly affect annual sales.
                                        85

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FIRM:


PRODUCT:

PLANT LOCATION:

OTHER PRODUCTS PRODUCED:


EMPLOYMENT:

CAPACITY.

EXPANSION PLANS.

INTEGRATION:
PRODUCTION:

VALUE OF PRODUCTION, MFG.

PERCENT OF TOTAL MANU-
  FACTURER SALES:

U.S. MARKET SIZE:

PERCENT OF U.S. MARKET:

EXPORTS:

VALUE OF EXPORTS:

WORLD MARKET SIZE:

PERCENT OF WORLD MARKET:

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, U.S.:
Vicksburg Chemical Company
Vicksburg, Mississippi

Toxaphene

Vicksburg, Mississippi (Plant is two years old)

Ammonium  nitrate,  chlorine,  nitric acid, nitrogen
tetroxide, potassium nitrate.

12-15 for toxaphene

10-13MMlbs.

None announced

Backward:  Produce  chlorine  which  is  approxi-
          mately 33% of toxaphene  manufacture
          material  costs.  (Camphene is approxi-
          mately 50% of material costs.)

Forward:  None

9 MM Ibs.

1975-$3.42 MM


8-10%

50-65 MM Ibs. (1972-1975)

8-10%

~ 4 MM Ibs.

$1.52 MM

~ 50 MM Ibs. (non-U.S.)

8-10%

Own Formulation — Percent of Product Produced: 0

Other Formulators:  Percent of Product  Produced:
100%

Number of Formulators:  N.A.
                                    86

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DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, U.S.:
  (cont.)                        Common Forms:  EC

                                Mixed with:  Methyl parathion

                                Shipped in: From Manufacturer: Bulk

DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM,
  FOREIGN:                    Market   almost  exclusively  in  South  America.
                                Presently  market through formulators  in  appro-
                                priate countries.

                                Presently  in  South  America,  West German  com-
                                petition is stiff.
                                       87

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         APPENDIX B
PATENT EXPIRATIONS (1975-1986)
             89

-------
PATENT EXPIRATIONS
Product
Banvel
Dicamba
Baygon (Propoxur)
Benomyl (Benlate)
Carbaryl (Sevin)
Cyprex (Dodine)
Daconil (Bravo)
(Chlorothalonil)
Def
Diazinon
Diazinon
Dicofol (Kelthane)
Difolatan (Captafol)
Captan — expired
Disolfotan (Di-Syston)
Dyfonate
Eptam
Guthion (Azinphosmethyl)
Dur-Ter
Producer
Velsicol
Chemagro
DuPont
Union Carbide
Cyanamid
Diamond
Chemagro
Geigy
Geigy
R&H
Chevron

Chemagro
Stauffer
Stauffer
Chemagro

Patent*
Date
1961
1963

1959
1959
1.1966
2.1967
1.1958
2.1960
1956
1957
1965

1956
1961
1959
1956
1.1963
2.1964
3.1966
4.1966
5.1968
6.1969
Patent
Expiration
1978
1980

1976
1976
1983
1984
1975
1977
1973
1974
1982

1973
1978
1976
1973
1980
1981
1983
1983
1985
1986
         91

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                   PATENT EXPIRATIONS (Continued)
       Product


Lasso (Alachlor)

Maneb


Randox (CDAA)

Ruelene

Sutan (Butylate)

2,36-TBA (Benzac)

Tetradifon (Tedion)


Vernam (Vernolate)

Omite


Chlorobenzilate
  (Acaraben)

Aatrex  (Atrazine)

Treflan
Methomyl  (Lannate)

Naled (Dibrom)

Naptalam (Alanap)

Nitrofen (TOK)

Paraquat (Gramoxone)

Plictran(Dowco213)

Princep (Simazine)

Propazine (Milogard,
  Gesonil)

Ramrod (Propachlor)
Producer
Monsanto
DuPont, R&M
Pennwalt
Monsanto
Dow
Stauffer
DuPont, Amchem
FMC
Thompson-Hayward
Stauffer
Uniroyal

Geigy
Geigy
Blanco
DuPont
Chevron
Uniroyal
Rohm & Haas
ICI
Dow
Geigy
Geigy
Monsanto
Patent*
Date
May 6, 1969
1961
1958
1960
1959
1958
1957
1959
1966
1969
1956
1959
1960

1961
1956
1963
1961
1966
1959
1959
Dec. 9, 1958
its, such as new use patents, may be
Patent
Expiration
1986
1978
1975
1977
1976
1975
1974
1976
1983
1986
1973
1976
1977

1978
1983
1980
1978
1983
1976
1976
Dec. 9, 1975
more recent.
                                  92

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             SUPPLEMENT


       ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF
 INTERIM FINAL EFFLUENT GUIDELINES
       FOR THE PESTICIDES AND
AGRICULTURAL CHEMICAL INDUSTRY —
               GROUP II
            Economic Analysis Using
            Plant-by-Plant Estimation
                   of
            BPCTCA Treatment Costs
            Contract No. 68-01-1541
              Task Order No. 39
    OFFICE OF WATER PLANNING AND STANDARDS
       ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
           WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460
              DECEMBER 1976
                  93

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                   S-1.0  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
S-1.1  BACKGROUND
    During the course of the economic impact analysis performed by ADL, it became apparent
that the generalized BPCTCA cost estimates in the EPA Effluent Guidelines Development
Document were not fully suitable for the purpose of analyzing economic impact. While the cost
estimates are reasonably accurate for the size and type of treatment systems included in the
Development Document cost models, their use presents two major problems:

    1. The cost estimates are for model plants of a certain production rate and wastewater
       flow rate. Even if all the plants within the industry actually employed treatment
       steps identical  to those used  in the cost model,  widely varying plant-to-plant
       production rates and wastewater flow rates would result in a very wide range of
       costs actually being incurred by individual plants.
    2. The cost model used in the Development Document implicitly assumes that none of
       the suggested BPCTCA treatment steps is in place and therefore  that the full
       capital investment and operating cost will be incurred by all  plants employing
       BPCTCA technology. In actuality, many plants will require only a fraction of the
       suggested BPCTCA treatment steps.

    If the costs shown in the Development Document are used in an economic impact analysis,
the conclusion reached  is that there is a likelihood of significant impact from  the BPCTCA
standards on the small manufacturers of inexpensive pesticides. This is the conclusion reached in
the ADL economic impact assessment of September  1976.

    Recognizing that the problems previously listed  might result in an erroneous conclusion,
EPA commissioned another contractor1 to perform a separate plant-by-plant estimate of the
BPCTCA costs that would be incurred by the pesticide manufacturers covered by the effluent
guidelines, Since these estimates were made available after the completion of our draft report,
they are now included as a supplement.

S-1.2 ESTIMATED TOTAL COST OF COMPLIANCE FOR MANUFACTURERS
       AFFECTED BY THE BPCTCA STANDARDS
    ESE identified 12  manufacturers  who  would be affected  by the proposed BPCTCA stan-
dards. For each manufacturer so affected, ESE estimated the cost of meeting the standards. In
Table S-1.2 we have adjusted the coats presented by ESE to the 1975 level and have included a
capital recovery factor in the estimated annual costs.

S-1.3 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF THE BPCTCA COST OF COMPLIANCE
    ESE identified 12  plants that would require treatment upgrading to meet the BPCTCA
standards. They did not provide production and product mix information for the plants. How-
ever, using in-house information, we were able to estimate the maximum annual revenues  for
seven of the affected plants. We found that only one of the seven met our criteria for insignificant
economic impact, and we found that three plants had treatment cost-to-sales ratios of 2% to 5%
and three plants had treatment cost-to-sales ratios of 15% to 30%. For the five plants for which we
1. Environmental Science and Engineering, Inc. (ESE), Gainesville, Florida.


                                      95

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                                                                     TABLE S-1.2

                                                          ESTIMATED COST OF COMPLIANCE
                                           BASED ON ESTIMATES OF ADDITIONAL TREATMENT REQUIRED
Total Number1'2
of Plants
32
10
24
6
3,400
56

Estimated Number of3
Plants that Will Incur
Treatment Costs
4
1
1
1
0s
5
12
Estimated4
Total Capital
Cost
($ Million)
15.2
2.0
8.1
0.3
0.0
7.7
33.2
Estimated4'5
Annual
Cost
($ Million)
4.5
0.7
1.9
0.2
0.0
2.9
10.2
        Subcategory A

        Subcategory B

        Subcategory C

o\      Subcategory D

        Subcategory E

        Multicategory Plants
           Total

        1. Estimate excludes 15 single product plants because the subcategory of the product produced at the plant was unknown.
        2. Numbers from EPA.
        3. Based on number of direct dischargers estimated by the technical contractor. No facilities engaged solely in the formulation of pesticide products have
           been identified as direct dischargers.
        4. Based on individual plant estimates supplied by the technical contractor. Costs adjusted to 1975 Dollars (ENR 2270).
        5. Annual cost includes a capital recovery factor of 0.163 (10 years and  10% interest rate).

-------
were unable  to estimate revenues, we calculated  what the revenues would  have to be for
treatment cost to selling price ratios of 2%, 5%, and 10%. Based on our comparison of the revenues
required to achieve each ratio and typical revenues for pesticide manufacturers, we believe that
the treatment cost-to-selling price ratios for four of the five additional plants are greater than 5%.

     Thus, we estimate that there will  likely be serious economic impacts on three to five of the
12 plants affected by the BPCTCA standards and a possibility of potential economic impact to an
additional four plants. The exact nature of the economic impact to the affected plants can only be
determined by further in-depth study of these plants. We, therefore, conclude that the informa-
tion from ESE discussed in this supplement does not affect the conclusion in our September 1976
report; i.e., that some of the pesticide manufacturers will incur significant economic impact from
the BPCTCA standards.
                                          97

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  S-2.0   ESTIMATED COST  OF COMPLIANCE FOR
             MANUFACTURERS AFFECTED BY
                  THE BPCTCA STANDARDS
    As previously stated, the plant-by-plant cost estimates were performed for EPA by another
contractor; therefore we are not intimately familiar with the manner or information they used in
preparing the cost estimates. However, we do understand that the estimates were developed by:

    1.  Contacting the individual plants that are point-source dischargers to determine the
       wastewater treatment that is already in place and the type of treatment measures
       that will be required to ensure compliance with the BPCTCA standards; and
    2.  Using established cost-estimating procedures to determine the cost of the required
       treatment measures specific to the individual plants.

    In this way, the work done by ESE overcomes some of the inherent limitations of a
generalized cost model. It also provides a  fairly accurate picture of the costs likely to be incurred
by specific plants and the industry as a  whole. Although of more use than the original Devel-
opment Document cost model, the plant-by-plant estimates are still of limited value for direct
evaluation of economic impact, because the costs are not tied to production levels and product
mix. Thus, it is not possible with the ESE data to obtain unit BPCTCA treatment costs in terms
of dollars per unit production rate.

    The BPCTCA cost estimates prepared by ESE are presented in Table S-2.0A. It should be
noted that the number of applicable point-source surface  dischargers listed by ESE is 23, while,
according to the August Development Document, the number of plants affected by the guidelines
is 40. Reportedly the reason for this apparent discrepancy was that some of the plants have since
closed, have been reclassified under other guidelines, or otherwise have been removed from  the
"applicable" list.

    The estimated cost to the industry as  a whole to make the necessary  upgrading can be
estimated using the information of Table  2.0A, and by making the necessary minor adjustments
such as putting costs on a uniform time basis. We have estimated cost to the industry as a whole
to meet the BPCTCA standards in Table  S-2.0B.
                                     99

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  Plant
(Coded)

  M22
  M7
  M8
  M9
                                       TABLE S-2.0A

          BPCTCACOST ESTIMATES FOR APPLICABLE POINT-SOURCE DISCHARGERS
            WITHIN THE PESTICIDES AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS INDUSTRY1
     Existing
   Treatment
Incineration
API Separator
Hydrolysis

Activated Carbon
Holding Pond
Equalization
Activated Sludge
OP-Hydrolysis
Equalization
Aerated Lagoon
Gravity Separation
Neutralization
        Potential
       Treatment
Neutralization
Aerated Lagoon
Gravity Separation

Evaporation-Crystallization
Equalization-Filtration
Activated Carbon
Ion Exchange
Precipitation
Neutralization

NH3-N Removal
                                 Hydrolysis
                                 Dual-Media Filtration
HO, ON Hydrolysis
                                 Dual-Media Filtration
   Capital
    Costs
  1,400,000
   (Aug. 72)
 ESE Estimate

  3,500,000
   (July 77)
 ESE Estimate
  1,000,000
   (July 76)
Plant Estimate

    117,000
   (Aug. 72)
 ESE Estimate

    320,000
   (Aug. 72)
 ESE Estimate

    171,000
   (Aug. 72)
 ESE Estimate

    400,000
   (Aug. 72)
 ESE Estimate
   Direct3
  Operating
    Costs
   129,000
   (Aug. 72)
 ESE Estimate

   900,000
   (July 77)
 ESE Estimate
   310,000
   (July 76)
Plant Estimate

    66,150
   (Aug. 72)
 ESE Estimate

    19,200
   (Aug. 72)
 ESE Estimate

   108,300
   (Aug. 72)
 ESE Estimate

    24,000
   (Aug. 72)
 ESE Estimate
1.  Source: Cost estimates performed by Environmental Science and Engineering, and transmitted by EPA
          to ADL in two parts on 9/22/76 and 9/29/76.
2.  "M" designates multi-product plants.
3.  Does not include capital-related items.
                                            100

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                                   TABLE S-2.0A (Continued)
               Existing
Rant          Treatment

 A2        Gravity Separation
           Sand Filtration
           Cartridge
             Filtration
           Neutralization
Potential
Treatment
Resin Adsorption
Reductive Degradation
@ 300 gpm
Equalization
Activated Sludge
Capital
Costs
954,000
(Apr. 75)
MRI Report
1,470,000
(Aug. 72)
ESE Estimate
Direct3
Operating
Costs
437,200
(Apr. 75)
MRI Report
1 34,000
(Aug. 72)
ESE Estimate
A3        Equalization
           Gravity Separation
           Neutralization
                        None
                                None
                          None
A6        Activated Carbon
           Neutralization
                        Equalization
                        Activated Sludge
                             3,244,000
                              (Aug. 72)
                           ESE Estimate
                        682,000
                       (Aug. 72)
                     ESE Estimate
A8        Hydrolysis
           Activated Carbon
           Neutralization
                        None
                                None
                          None
A9
A12
A18
A19
82
C4
C8
In-plant Controls
Gravity Separation
None
     None
     None
Holding Land
Disposal
Hydrolysis
Neutralization
Gravity Separation
Neutralization
Gravity Separation



Not a Direct
Discharger
Equalization
Activated Sludge

API Separator
Equalization
Activated Sludge
Activated Carbon
Incinerator
Not a Direct
Discharger
3,320,000
(Aug. 72)
ESE Estimate
3,536,000
(Aug. 72)
ESE Estimate


Not a Direct
Discharger
302,000
(Aug. 72)
ESE Estimate
431,800
(Aug. 72)
ESE Estimate


Neutralization
Gravity Separation
Activated Sludge

Activated Carbon
Neutralization
Gravity Separation
Activated Sludge

Neutralization
Not a Direct
 Discharger


None
Hydrolysis
Equalization
Activated SI udge
 Not a Direct
 Discharger


    None
  6,192,600
  (Aug. 72)
ESE Estimate
 Not a Direct
 Discharger
     None
  436,000
  (Aug. 72)
ESE Estimate
                                              101

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                                                                 TABLE S-2.0A (Continued)
               Plant
     Existing
    Treatment
    Potential
   Treatment
Capital
 Costs
    Direct3
   Operating
     Costs
   Unidentified product category
                                             Reclassified as municipal discharger
               C2
	As of August 1976 all process wastewater goes to deep well disposal	
                M5
O
to
Neutralization
Skimming
Aerated Lagoon
Activated Carbon
 None
   $55,000
   (Apr. 76)
(Plant Estimate)
   Unidentified product category     	Due to labor strike and lack of market this plant has ceased production	
               C1
	This-plant's product, atrazine, has been excluded from these guidelines	
               M1
Neutralization
Gravity Separation
Activated Sludge
     None
 None
                                                                 None

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                                                        TABLE S-2.0A (Continued)
            Plant
     Existing
    Treatment
        Potential
        Treatment
   Capital
    Costs
 Direct3
Operating
  Costs
            D3
           M12
           B5



Unidentified product category

Unidentified product category
Neutralization
Gravity Separation
Chlorination
Neutralization
Equalization
Nutrient Addition
Aerated-Lagoon

Aerated Lagoon
Neutralization
Gravity Separation
Aerated Lagoon
Aerated Lagoon

Contract Disposal
Equalization
Neutralization
Neutralization
Sand Filtration
Activated Carbon
Holding Pond
       Hydrolysis
  $194,000
  (Aug. 72)
ESE Estimate
                                                                                                                               $82,400
                                                                                                                              (Aug. 72)
                                                                                                                             ESE Estimate
         None
                                                                                                    None
                              None
                                                                          None
                                   None
                                                                                                                               None
Not a manufacturer — removed from direct discharger list

         None                     None
                                                                                       None

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                                                       TABLE S-2.0A (Continued)
           Plant

            B1



Unidentified product category


           D1


           C6
                                      Existing
                                     Treatment

                                (4) Holding Ponds
                                      Potential
                                     Treatment

                                  Hydrolysis
                                  Equalization
                                  Activated Sludge
                           Capital
                            Costs

                         $1,495,000
                          (Aug. 72)
                        ESE Estimate
                           Direct3
                          Operating
                             Costs

                          $247,900
                          (Aug. 72)
                         ESE Estimate
                                             - Currently achieving zero discharge via 20 mgal evaporation pond	
                                	Product (Organo-Tin) has been excluded from these guidelines
           M10
                                Deep Well
                                Gravity Separation
                                Skimming
500 acre-holding pond
                                       None
                            None
                          None
None
None
                                                                                                                             None
Unidentified product category     Activated Sludge
                                       None
                            None
                          None

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                                                            TABLE S-2.0B
                                                 ESTIMATED COST OF COMPLIANCE
                                   BASED ON ESTIMATES OF ADDITIONAL TREATMENT REQUIRED
Total Number1'2
of Plants
32
10
24
6
3,400
56

Estimated Number of3
Plants that Will Incur
Treatment Costs
4
1
1
1
0s
5
12
Estimated4
Total Capital
Cost
($ Million)
15.2
2.0
8.1
0.3
0.0
7.7
33.2
Estimated4'5
Annual
Cost
($ Million)
4.5
0.7
1.9
0.2
0.0
2.9
10.2
Subcategory A
Subcategory B
Subcategory C
Subcategory D
Subcategory E
Multicategory Plants
   Total

1. Estimate excludes 15 single product plants because the Subcategory of the product produced at the plant was unknown.
2. Numbers from EPA.
3. Based on number of direct dischargers estimated by the technical contractor. No facilities engaged solely in the formulation of pesticide products have
   been identified as direct dischargers.
4. Based on individual plant estimates supplied by the technical contractor. Costs adjusted to 1975 Dollars (ENR 2270).
5. Annual cost includes a capital recovery factor of 0.163 (10 years and 10% interest rate).

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                 S-3.0  ESTIMATED IMPACT OF
          THE BPCTCA COST OF COMPLIANCE
     It is immediately apparent from an examination of Table S-2.0A that none of the point-
source dischargers will have to install all of the model plant treatment steps to meet the BPCTCA
standards. A number of plants will require some upgrading to meet the BPCTCA standards.

     The costs that the manufacturers would incur (shown in Table S-2.0B), are much less than
those that would be estimated if the generalized results of the Development Document  had been
used. However, this total does not answer the question as to whether or not any of the  pesticide
manufacturers would incur a significant economic impact because of the BPCTCA regulations.

     In our September 1976 report, we concluded  — based on the costs in the Development
Document — that there was a likelihood that some manufacturers would be significantly im-
pacted by the costs associated with the effluent guidelines. In Table S-3.0, we show the BPCTCA
treatment costs and estimates of individual plant revenues. As mentioned previously,  ESE did
not provide production and product mix figures for the 12 plants that it found required treatment
upgrading. However, using in-house information, we were able to estimate the annual revenues
for seven of the plants. The plants for which this estimate could be made were A2, A«, A18, Alg, B,,
M6, and Me.  For these seven  plants we were then able to estimate the ratio of annual treatment
cost  to annual sales. Only one plant met our criteria for insignificant economic impact. Three
plants had treatment costs-to-sales ratios of 2% to 5%. Three plants had treatment costs-to-sales
ratios of 15% to 30%.

     For  5 of the 12 plants  we were  unable to estimate the annual revenues. Therefore, we
calculated the annual sales required to produce treatment costs-to-sales ratios of less than 2%, 5%
and  10%, respectively. As may be seen in  the right-hand section of Table  S-3.0, the annual
revenues required to produce a treatment cost-to-selling price ratio of less than 2% range from
$7.5 to 95 million. We estimate that plant D, could have annual revenues as high as $7.5 million,
but that  revenues from pesticides of $23.5  to $95 million for the other four plants are highly
unlikely. It is probable that the treatment costs-to-selling price ratios for these four plants are in
excess of 5% based on comparison with the estimated revenues of the other seven plants.

     From the information available to us at this time, we estimate that there are likely to be
serious economic impacts on 3 to 5 of the  12 plants and potential economic impact to four
additional plants. Whether the impacts will be sufficient to cause severe economic dislocations,
such as plant closures, conversion to the manufacture of other organic chemicals, reduction in
personnel, and the like, can only be determined by a further in-depth study of these plants. It will
be necessary  to know the degree to which the pesticide produced at a given plant is not subject to
substitution, the price inelasticity of demand for the pesticide, the cost of other treatment options
for the plant, etc., in order to estimate the economic impact on specific plants. However, at the
present time, we believe that the conclusion  in our September 1976 report is still valid, i.e., some
of the pesticide manufacturers will incur significant economic impact if the BPCTCA standards
are implemented.
                                        107

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o
oo
                                                                    TABLE S-3.0

                                         BPCTCA TREATMENT COSTS COMPARED AGAINST ESTIMATED AND
                                                           REQUIRED PLANT REVENUES
                                                                                                                                             l\
           Estimated Maximum1'3
Plant          Annual Revenue
                 ($1000/yr)

A2               13,740
A6                5,350
A, 8              5,200
A! 9               7,200
B,               17,000
C8                 NA
D3                 NA
M2                 NA
M5                2,1004
M7                 NA
M8                 NA
M9               50,0004
                                                 Total Annual2'3
                                                 Treatment Cost       Minimum Ratio of Treatment Cost
                                                  for BPCTCA             to Estimated Revenue
                                                   ($10007yr)

                                                       490                        3.6%
                                                      1,590                       29.7%
                                                      1,110                       21.3%
                                                      1,320                       18.3%
                                                       640                        3.8%
                                                      1,900                        NA
                                                       150                        NA
                                                       470                        NA
                                                        55                        2.6%
                                                      1,470                        NA
                                                       680                        NA
                                                       300                        0.6%
                                                                                                         At Rants for which No
                                                                                                         Estimate of Revenues are
                                                                                                         Available, the Annual Sales
                                                                                                         ($1000) Required for the
                                                                                                         Treatment Cost to Selling Price Ratio
                                                                                                         to be Less Than
                                                                                                           2%
5%
10%
95,000
7,500
23,500
73,500
34,000
38,000
3,000
9,400
29,400
13,600
19,000
1,500
4,700
14,700
6,800
o
3
        Notes:  1. Estimate is based on the product of reported plant capacity and pesticide selling price; revenues will usually be much less, as few plants oper-
                 ate at full capacity.
               2. Total annual cost includes capital recovery (10% for 10 years) equal to 16.3% of initial capital investment.
               3. Estimated revenues and total annual costs are in 1975 dollars.
               4. Revenues from all products of plant are not available, therefore the ratio of treatment cost to revenue may be lower.

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