USA
            S.O.iL.E.C
   1994 State of the Lakes Ecosystem
             Conference
          Background Paper
              Nutrients:
     Trends and System Response

              August 1995

          Environment Canada
United States Environmental Protection Agency
           EPA 905-R-95-015

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   State of the Lakes Ecosystem Conference

               Background Paper
NUTRIENTS: TRENDS AND SYSTEM
               RESPONSE
                Melanie Neilson
                 Serge L'ltalien
                Violeta Glumac
                 Don Williams
              Environment Canada
         Environmental Conservation Branch
               Burlington, Ontario
                 Paul Bertram
         Great Lakes National Program Office
     United States Environmental Protection Agency
                Chicago, Illinois
                 August 1995

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Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	iv

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  	  1

1.0 INTRODUCTION	  3

2.0 STATUS AND TRENDS FOR FISH AND WILDLIFE HEALTH	  5
      2.1 Reductions in Historic Loadings  	  5
      2.2 Current Status 	  6

3.0 SYSTEM RESPONSE	  9
      3.1 Soluble Reactive Phosphorus and Algal Growth .  .	  9
      3.2 Lake Erie Dissolved Oxygen Depletion	   10
      3.3 Nitrate-plus-nitrite  	   10

4.0 WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?	   13

5.0 REFERENCES	   16

List of Figures	   20

Figures  	   21
Nutrient Trends and Response - SOLEC Background Paper

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of the following in developing this
cluster paper: Kevin McGunagle, International Joint Commission-Regional Office, for providing
us with the latest phosphorus loading estimates; Scott Painter, National Water Research Institute,
for developing the section on  Cladophora; Peter Yee, Environmental Services Branch, for over-
basin  precipitation records for each lake;  Len  Kamp, Monitoring and Systems Branch, for
information on the SWEEP program; Phil  Smith, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, for
providing  us with Ontario stocking information; and Tom Nalepa, Great Lakes Environmental
Research Laboratory, for 1991 Saginaw Bay data. In addition, we are grateful for the comments
of many reviewers both before and after the State of the Lakes Ecosystem Conference, October
26-28, 1994.
                                NOTICE TO READER
These  Background Papers are intended to provide a  concise overview of the status  of
conditions  in  the Great  Lakes.    The  information  they  present has been  selected  as
representative of the much greater volume of data.  They therefore do not present all research
or monitoring information available.  The Papers were prepared with input from  many
individuals representing diverse sectors of society.

The  Background Papers were first released as Working Papers  to  provide the basis for
discussions at the first State of the Lakes Ecosystem Conference (SOLEC) in October, 1994.
Information provided by SOLEC  discussants was incorporated into the these final SOLEC
background papers.  SOLEC was  intended to provide key information required by managers
to make better environmental decisions.
                                                                                   IV

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Reductions in annual phosphorus loadings  have been achieved in  all five Great  Lakes,  with
current loads clearly below the target loads of the 1978 Canada-U.S. Great Lakes Water Quality
Agreement for lakes Superior, Huron and Michigan, and at or near the target limits for lakes Erie
and  Ontario.   Phosphorus  concentrations  are  likewise  below  the  expected  open-lake
concentrations that reflect achievement of loadings limits for the Upper Lakes. In Lake Ontario,
expected phosphorus concentrations have been achieved for several recent years.  In central and
eastern Lake Erie, phosphorus concentrations have been achieved, but some annual fluctuations
around the objective still exist.   In western Lake Erie, annual phosphorus concentrations are
highly variable, although spring averages below the objective have been reported in at least two
recent years.

Soluble reactive phosphorus  (SRP) represents  that fraction of the  total phosphorus which is
directly available to the primary  producers  (plants and algae).  Generally, for all of the Great
Lakes, spring SRP trends followed those of total phosphorus concentrations. The decline in  SRP
concentrations has resulted in noticeable changes, both nearshore and offshore.   The nearshore
effects were observable in the reduction in Cladophora growth.   In the offshore,  concentrations
of chlorophyll a (an indirect measure of productivity)  indicate that  the Upper  Lakes  have
remained oligotrophic, while the  Lower Lakes (particularly Lake Ontario) are tending towards
oligotrophic conditions.

Nitrate-plus-nitrite is also an  important nutrient in water systems. Major sources of nitrogen to
the lakes are  agricultural  runoff, municipal sewage treatment plants and atmospheric deposition.
Increasing levels of nitrate-plus-nitrite have been reported in  the Great Lakes for the past two
decades, particularly in Lake Ontario.  Current open lake concentrations do not create a public
health concern, as they are at least 20 times lower than the guideline for protection of drinking
water (10 mg/L). The  combination of reductions in phosphorus concentrations and increases in
nitrogen concentrations have  served to not only  reduce the total quantity of  algae in the water
(i.e., reduced chlorophyll and Cladophora levels), but also to shift the species composition away
from nuisance blue-greens and toward more desirable, and historically prevalent, diatoms.

Phosphorus controls appear to have been successful in lowering the loadings into the lakes, and
consequently reducing, to varying extents, the  resultant open lake concentrations  of total and
soluble reactive phosphorus.  However, the goal of establishing year-round aerobic conditions in
the hypolimnion of Lake  Erie's Central Basin has not been realized.  It has been determined that
lake phosphorus loads would  have to be reduced to about 5000 metric t/y to achieve the desired
effect on oxygen.  There is also evidence to suggest that there were brief periods of anoxia in
some areas  of the  Central  Basin of Lake Erie for hundreds of  years, prior to  European
colonization and the onset of cultural eutrophication. Perhaps intermittent anoxia is an inherent
property of the basin, and management to achieve a state where  anoxia does not occur is not a
realistic goal for lake managers.
Nutrient Trends and Response - SOLEC Background Paper

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What impact have nutrient controls had on the food web?  Zooplankton are the pivotal trophic
level  in lake ecosystems, responding to both salmonid stocking (top-down) and  phosphorus
abatement (bottom-up) management strategies. In Lake Ontario, zooplankton composition has
not changed systematically or  substantially  throughout  the  1980's,  although  zooplankton
abundance declined  as of 1983-84, particularly in the eastern basin.  This has been attributed to
a combination of stable fish predation and reduced food supply.

Zooplankton comprise almost the entire diet of alewife, and are a significant component of the
diet of smelt. The reduction in abundance of zooplankton,  therefore, could only result in lower
production of alewife and smelt.  Alewife and smelt biomass indices have declined since the
early  1980's.  At the same time, the numbers of hatchery-reared salmon and trout stocked in
Lake  Ontario steadily increased from just over 1  million in 1972 to approximately 8.2 million
in 1984.  As the stocked fish continued to grow and accumulate, the total weight of salmon and
trout reached a peak in 1986 and, since then, has remained high. Alewife and smelt populations
in Lake Ontario are under stress  from both ends of the food chain.  How much stocking is too
much?

In an  attempt to restore the balance between stocked predators and prey in Lake Ontario, the two
agencies responsible for fisheries management agreed to revise their Lake Ontario fish stocking
plans, using  a two-year phased-in approach, beginning in 1993.  For 1993, the two agencies set
a target for predator demand which is 35% lower than 1991 levels.  In 1994, additional stocking
reductions are expected to bring about a total reduction of 47% in predator demand from the
1991  level.

Fisheries and water  quality  management strategies have evolved independently in the Great
Lakes.  In general, these strategies operate from different ends of the management  spectrum —
bottom-up (phosphorus control)  and  top-down (massive fish stocking).  A more ecologically
oriented approach, which recognizes the interactions between fisheries and water quality, will be
required to manage  the Great Lakes.

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1.0        Introduction
In the 1960's, severe degradation of the Lower Lakes and several embayment areas of the Upper
Lakes aroused public concern.  Enormous algal blooms were frequently observed and normal
aquatic life disappeared from waters adjacent to densely industrialized and populated areas.  In
the Central Basin of Lake Erie, Saginaw Bay and Green Bay, bacterial decomposition of large
quantities of algae that had settled to the sediment surface lead to anoxia (lack of oxygen) in the
bottom waters (hypolirnnion).  Decomposing filamentous algae (Cladophord) also piled up on
some beaches. Taste and odor problems appeared in drinking water due to blue-green algae.

In the  late  1960's, a  review of the state of the Lower Lakes  by the International  Joint
Commission (IJC 1969), based on the results of special studies by Canada and the U.S., identified
eutrophication as a problem due to excessive inputs of nutrients. Phosphorus was subsequently
identified as the  key nutrient controlling eutrophication.  If cultural  eutrophication of the Great
Lakes was to  be reversed,  phosphorus would  need to be controlled.  The major sources of
phosphorus were municipal and industrial wastes, and urban and agricultural runoff. In 1972 the
United States and Canada signed the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (GLWQA). The
GLWQA focused on reducing phosphorus inputs to the lakes in order to:

a)     substantially eliminate nuisance algal growth in the Lower Lakes and the International
       Section of the St. Lawrence River;
b)     restore year-round aerobic conditions in the hypolirnnion of Lake Erie's Central Basin;
       and
c)     maintain  Lake Superior's and Lake Huron's oligotrophic state.

Municipal wastes containing phosphate detergents contributed 70% of total inputs of phosphorus.
Programs that were implemented to reduce phosphorus  loads to  the Great Lakes  included
improving major municipal wastewater treatment facilities (those discharging more than 3800
mYd or 1 million gallons/d) so their effluents contained no more than 1 mg P/liter, limiting P
content in household detergents used in the Great Lakes Basin, requiring industries to remove P
from their  discharges to the  maximum extent practicable,  and controlling P loadings from
agricultural operations.

Restrictions on the P content of household detergents was  considered one of the most effective
early actions  that could be  taken  to reduce  phosphorus loadings.   The Canadian federal
government chose to implement such restrictions in  1972,  and several of the U.S. states did so
soon thereafter.   The  U.S.  federal  government also  encouraged engineering solutions to
phosphorus removal from sewage.  U.S.  federal grants to states and local municipalities  for
construction or upgrading of sewage treatment plants was a highly visible, costly part of a
nationwide program to improve the level of sewage treatment. However, in many cases around
the Great Lakes, the targeted load reductions forced the consideration of phosphorus removal in
the engineering designs that otherwise might not have been included.


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Updated  phosphorus loading targets  for each  lake  were incorporated into the renegotiated
GLWQA  in  1978.  These target  loads  were based  on achieving average  annual  in-lake
phosphorus concentrations  [guidelines] (Vallentyne and Thomas  1978), as shown in Table  1.
These loading values were subsequently confirmed (Phosphorus  Management Strategies Task
Force 1980), and  were incorporated into  the revised GLWQA in 1978.   Later, the Aquatic
Ecosystem Objectives Committee of the IJC recommended that the phosphorus concentration
guidelines be based on spring open-lake concentrations, since these largely influence summer
phytoplankton biomass (Great Lakes Science Advisory Board 1980).
Table 1.      Phosphorus target loads (metric t/yr) and spring total phosphorus
             guidelines (ug/L).

Basin        Phosphorus Target Load    Guideline

Lake Superior               3400              5
Lake Michigan               5600              7
Lake Huron                 4300              5
Lake Erie                   11000
       Western Basin                           15
       Central Basin                            10
       Eastern Basin                            10
Lake Ontario                7000              10
In recognition that phosphorus loading targets had not yet been attained in lakes Erie and Ontario,
a Phosphorus Load Reduction Supplement was added to the Agreement in 1983 which identified
loading reductions of 2,000 and 430 metric tonnes/yr for lakes Erie and Ontario, respectively, still
to be achieved.  The allocation of reductions to meet target loads for Lake Erie were further
defined as 300 metric t/yr from Canadian sources, and  1700 metric t/yr from U.S. sources.  The
U.S further apportioned load reduction goals by state. At this point, the loadings were expected
to be achieved mainly through non-point source (agricultural) programs.

This paper discusses the progress in controlling phosphorus loads to  the lakes and the resulting
responses of each of the Great Lakes.  Emphasis is placed on concentrations and long-term trends
of phosphorus, nitrogen and chlorophyll a in the offshore waters and on the hypolimnetic oxygen
depletion in Lake Erie.  Some nearshore Areas of Concern are impacted by problems related to
excessive nutrients (Figure 1), but a detailed discussion of these areas  is beyond the scope of this
paper.

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2.0       Status     and      Trends      of      Total
             phosphorus  in  the Great  Lakes

2.1  Reductions  in Historic  Loadings
The combination of phosphorus-detergent restrictions and improved sewage treatment facilities
was successful in reducing phosphorus loadings.  By 1985, 85% of the 40 largest municipal
discharges in  the Great Lakes basin were in compliance with the  1 mg/L phosphorus limit,
including the 9 largest dischargers.

Non-point source programs were intended to assist farmers through combined incentive programs,
education and research, and they included conservation farming practices, installation of structural
soil erosion control measures and environmentally appropriate animal waste handling practices.
Cropping and tillage practice changes were expected to account for most of the phosphorus
reductions from agricultural non-point sources. In the U.S., the non-point source programs have
involved  a number of approaches and jurisdictions, including numerous federal grants for
projects.  Participation by farmers and  other landowners is still voluntary,  but many successful
projects have fostered continuing interest in improved agricultural practices. These programs in
the states bordering Lake Erie have reduced phosphorus loadings by approximately 1100 metric
t/yr (of the 1700 metric t/yr targeted reductions).  For Lake Ontario, estimated reductions of 404
metric  t/yr exceed the 1983 goal of 235 metric t/yr.   The Canadian  federal and provincial
governments conducted the Soil and Water Environmental Enhancement Program (SWEEP) for
Lake Erie from 1985 through 1993.  Results from the SWEEP program indicate that Canada has
met or exceeded its agricultural non-point source phosphorus loading reduction targets for Lake
Erie.

Estimates of phosphorus loadings  from tributaries, municipal and  industrial point sources,
atmospheric sources and the connecting channels have been calculated for each lake on an annual
basis by the Regional Office of the International Joint Commission, and reported by the Water
Quality Board.  Results for 1976 to 1991 are presented in Figure 2. Figure  3 presents the trends
in open lake total phosphorus concentrations for the period 1971 to 1992 measured during spring
cruises conducted by Environment Canada (lakes Superior, Huron/Georgian Bay and Ontario) and
the Great Lakes National Program  Office of U.S. EPA (lakes Michigan  and Erie).  Nutrient
concentrations are usually greatest in early spring, and concentrations at this time determine the
limits of algal growth during the summer.
Nutrient Trends and Response - SOLEC Background Paper

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2.2  Current Status

Reductions in annual phosphorus loadings have been achieved in all five Great Lakes,  with
current loads clearly below the target loads of the 1978 Agreement for lakes Superior, Huron and
Michigan, and at or near the target limits for lakes Erie and Ontario.

Phosphorus concentrations are likewise below the expected open lake concentrations that reflect
achievement of loadings limits for the Upper  Lakes.  In Lake Ontario,  expected phosphorus
concentrations have been achieved for several recent years.  In Central and Eastern Lake  Erie,
phosphorus concentrations have been achieved, but some annual fluctuations around the objective
still exist. In Western Lake Erie, annual phosphorus concentrations are highly variable, although
spring averages below the objective have been reported in at least two recent years.

       Lake  Superior:  Since  1985, loadings have been below the  target (3400 metric t/y).
       During the  period of record, 1983 to  1992,  open lake concentrations were always well
       below the 5 ug/L guideline.  The most recent data for the  lake indicate that higher
       concentrations are found only in the Duluth-Superior Harbor region  in the western arm
       of the lake.

       Lake  Michigan: Since 1981, loadings have been below  target  (5600 metric  t/y).
       Tributary loadings, which account for the bulk of the load, have varied over the period
       of record.   Atmospheric loadings, however, appeared to decline an order of magnitude
       between 1980 and  1981.   Beginning in  1981, more accurate  estimates of atmospheric
       loadings became  available through U.S. and Canadian atmospheric monitoring networks,
       and subsequent total  load  estimates have reflected the better  atmospheric data.  Since
       1976, lakewide total phosphorus concentrations have consistently been below the 7  ug/L
       guideline, with concentrations of approximately 5 ug/L.

       Lake Huron:  With  the exception of 1982  and  1985, loadings have been below target
       (4300 metric t/y) since 1981, also reflecting the better atmospheric data available.  In
       1985, tributary loadings doubled; coincident with record (1900-1993) average Lake Huron
       basin precipitation  (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA). Open
       lake total phosphorus levels have remained below the 5 ng/L guideline from  1980 to
       1991,  except in  1987 when 5.5  ug/L was  observed.  Localized   problems persist in
       Saginaw Bay (see Figures 4a and 4b) and along the Ontario shore of southern  Lake
       Huron.

       Lake  Erie:  Phosphorus loadings demonstrated a general decreasing trend during the
       period  1976-1991.  Municipal loadings showed a decrease between 1976 and 1981, but
       have remained fairly constant since then.  While Lake Erie receives the largest municipal
       load  of any  of  the  Great Lakes (Dolan 1993), 100% of the largest  plants are in
       compliance with  the  1 mg/L effluent limitations.  For the decade 1981-1991, loadings
       were equal  to or below the target except for the years 1982, 1984 and 1990. Phosphorus
       loads to Lake Erie are directly related to  the amount of precipitation falling in the basin

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       since the major phosphorus inputs come from the tributaries to the lakes.  Thus 1990, the
       wettest year on  record  (NOAA) for Lake Erie,  caused an approximate doubling  of
       tributary loads, resulting in the highest recorded phosphorus load since 1980.

       In the Western Basin, average spring phosphorus  concentrations continue to be highly
       variable,  subject to sampling  locations, influence of seasonal  tributary loadings and
       sediment resuspension from storms.   During the period 1983-1985,  average spring
       phosphorus concentrations were typically 20-25  ug/L,  although in  1984  one  survey
       averaged 69.3  ug/L.  During 1990 and 1992, spring averages were reduced to 12.2 and
       10.9 ug/L, respectively,  but the 1991 average (27.5 ug/L) demonstrates the continuing
       variable nature of the Western  Basin.

       Since  1970, average spring concentrations in the Central  Basin have generally declined,
       dropping below the guideline of 10 ug/L during 1988-1990.  Concentrations were slightly
       above the guidelines during 1991-92. However, annual fluctuations are common, in part
       due to the influence of resuspended sediments from storms, but average concentrations
       remain around the guideline.

       In the Eastern Basin, phosphorus concentrations declined from greater than 20 ug/L in the
       early 1970's to below the guideline of 10 ug/L in 1987. Spring concentrations remained
       below the guideline through  1990, but slightly exceeded  it in 1991 and 1992.

       Lake Ontario: Phosphorus loadings decreased from about 15,000 metric t/y in  1972 to
       the  target of 7,000 metric t/y in 1981.  Since that time, annual loadings have fluctuated
       near the target, but were below targeted limits only during  the years 1983, 1988 and 1989.
       Prior to  1983,  loadings from the Niagara River were comparable to those from all other
       tributaries combined.  Tributary loadings have declined such that Niagara River loadings
       now dominate.

       Lakewide concentrations of total phosphorus have decreased significantly over  the past
       20 years.  Levels exceeded 20 ug/L during  1971-1977,  but have declined to be at or
       below the guideline of 10 ug/L  since 1986.  During 1991 and 1992, mid-lake spring total
       phosphorus  concentrations  were below  10  ug/L.   In 1991/92, values  above  the
       recommended guideline were only found in very confined regions along the shoreline, a
       sharp contrast  to conditions observed in 1980 (Figures 4a, 4b).
Nutrient Trends and Response - SOLEC Background Paper

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3.0       System  Response
3.1  Soluble  Reactive  Phosphorus  and Algal Growth

Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP)  represents that fraction of the total phosphorus which is
directly available to the primary producers (plants and algae).  Generally, for all of the Great
Lakes, spring SRP trends followed those of total phosphorus concentrations. In the Upper Lakes
(Superior, Huron and Michigan), concentrations of SRP have fluctuated mildly, never exceeding
2 jag/L (Figure 5).  Larger variations were observed in both the Central and Eastern Basins of
Lake Erie; however, concentrations have remained below 5 ug/L since 1974. The greatest decline
in open lake concentrations occurred in Lake Ontario, where SRP concentrations as high as 15
(jg/L in 1974 have now been reduced to 3 (ag/L.

The decline  in phosphorus concentrations, especially SRP, has resulted in noticeable changes,
both nearshore and offshore.  Nearshore effects are observable in the reduction in Cladophora
growth. During periods of excessive nutrient enrichment, large odoriferous masses of decaying
Cladophora created problems along the shoreline of the Lower Lakes.  Between 1972 and 1983,
however, the amount of Cladophora in Lake Ontario decreased by 58% (Painter and Kamaitis
1987).

Cladophora growth rates have been modelled as a function of light, temperature, and phosphorus
by Auer and Canale (1982),  and Painter and Jackson  (1989).  Based on model projections,
estimated SRP concentrations in the nearshore areas of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie are sufficient
to sustain Cladophora  growth.  Cladophora growth in the Upper Lakes is a localized problem
responding to local inputs.  SRP will have to be monitored carefully in areas  such as Georgian
Bay to ensure that a Cladophora problem does not arise.  Jackson  and  Hamdy (1982) have
suggested that a 1  ug/L increase  in total  phosphorus could result in nuisance growths  in the
Thirty Thousand Islands area of Georgian Bay.

Green plants and algae contain chlorophyll, a pigment that is easily measurable and thus can be
used to estimate the quantity of algae  in the water.  The chlorophyll data reflect the offshore
responses to  the reductions in phosphorus loadings and spring concentrations.  It is measured in
the summer,  at the peak of the primary production of a lake.  Using the most restrictive of the
many proposed trophic status indicators in the literature (Forsberg and Ryding 1980), Rast and
Lee (1978) have suggested that chlorophyll a concentrations below 2.0 ug/L are indicative of
oligotrophic conditions. Using this criteria, the Upper Lakes have been oligotrophic at least since
1980 (the 1989 value for Lake Michigan notwithstanding, Figure 6). This  is consistent with the
goals  of phosphorus reduction programs, as outlined in the GLWQA. Reductions in chlorophyll
concentrations in the offshore waters of lakes Erie and Ontario indicate a trend from mesotrophy
toward oligotrophy over the period 1980-1990. Chlorophyll changes in the offshore, combined
with the nearshore Cladophora trends, indicate that the GLWQA goal of "reduction in the present
level of algal biomass to a level below that of a nuisance condition" has been achieved.

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Eutrophication and/or undesirable algae, however, continued to present problems in 18 of the 43
areas in the Great Lakes identified by the IJC as  having  the worst problems (see Figure 1).
Remedial action plans to address these problems are being developed individually for each of
these "Areas of Concern".
3.2  Lake Erie  Dissolved Oxygen Depletion

Figure 7 illustrates that dissolved oxygen concentrations in the bottom waters (hypolimnion) of
the Central Basin of Lake Erie have continued to decline during the summer season throughout
the period 1987 to 1991 (Bertram 1993).  Charlton et al (1993) observed a similar pattern as far
back as  1979.  Episodes of anoxia in the late summer continue to exist in some areas of the
Central Basin.  At  fall overturn, oxygenated waters  again extend from surface to  bottom.
However, bottom dwelling invertebrates, such as the mayfly (Hexagenia limbatd), are sensitive
to low oxygen concentrations, and even short periods of anoxia quickly kill the organisms. Prior
to 1953, mayflies were the most abundant species in the benthic community of the Western Basin
(Reynoldson and Hamilton 1993). However, two particularly long warm calm spells in both 1953
and 1955 produced anoxic conditions in the Western Basin, and mayflies have been essentially
absent since.

In 1989, the rate at which dissolved oxygen was depleted throughout the summer  (corrected for
hypolimnion temperature  and thickness, vertical mixing and seasonal effects)  was the lowest
measured for 20 years. This would suggest that, under some weather conditions, the hypolimnion
may be capable of sustaining aerobic waters for the entire season.  However, the depletion rates
for 1990 through  1992 were more typical of the rates calculated for  the late 1970s and early
1980s. This is not unexpected, given the lake morphometry and variability in the weather.  In
general, reduced dissolved oxygen depletion rates seem to be associated with lower spring total
phosphorus levels (Bertram 1993), suggesting that phosphorus loading reduction  strategies are
producing the desired  effect  in Lake Erie.   Some  lapse of time  between achievement  of
phosphorus loading targets and the maintenance of aerobic conditions  in the Central Basin was
predicted at the time that the loading targets were determined (DiToro and Connolly 1980).
3.3  Nitrate-plus-nitrite

Nitrate-plus-nitrite is also an important nutrient in water systems.  Major sources of nitrogen to
the lakes are agricultural runoff, municipal sewage treatment plants and atmospheric deposition.
The contribution of  nitrogen  and phosphorus from septic  systems is unknown,  but may  be
significant in some areas.  Increasing levels of nitrate-plus-nitrite have been reported in the Great
Lakes for the past two decades (Stevens and Neilson 1987; Williams 1992), particularly in Lake
Ontario (Figure 8).  Current open lake concentrations do not create a public health concern, as
they are at  least 20 times lower than the guideline for protection of drinking water (10 mg/L).
                                                                                    10

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However, nitrate may be a predisposing factor in several diseases in fish (Colt and Armstrong
1981).

Atmospheric deposition is suspected of being the major cause of nitrogen increases in the Upper
Lakes because of their large surface-area-to-drainage-basin ratio, lower population densities and
relatively fewer municipal and industrial dischargers.  It has been estimated that 58% of the total
nitrogen load to Lake Superior is due to precipitation (Hartig and Gannon 1986; Bennett, 1986).
In Lake Erie, increased use of chemical fertilizers and gaseous emission of nitrogen compounds
within the drainage basin are believed to be the major causes.  Nitrogen fertilizer sales in the
Lake Erie basin increased by roughly  50%  between 1974  and  1980, continuing an increasing
trend which began at least as early as 1970 (Richards and Baker, 1993).

Changes in the ratio of nitrogen to phosphorus (N:P ratio) can affect algal species composition.
Under phosphorus-rich  conditions, when nitrogen  may  be limited, blue-green  algae  have a
competitive  advantage because they can utilize ("fix") nitrogen directly, whereas  other types of
algae cannot.  Blue-green algae  composed much of the "nuisance algae" referred to in the
GLWQA. When the N:P ratio exceeds 29, there is a shift in  dominance from blue-green to green
algae and diatoms  (Smith 1983).  Hartig et .al  (1991) have  postulated that it is likely that until
about  1982-83 (when the  N:P ratio  crossed the  29:1  threshold), Lake Ontario's  summer
phytoplankton biomass was actually limited by nitrogen.  This would explain why chlorophyll
a levels only began to respond to further phosphorus reductions after this time.

The combination  of reductions  in  phosphorus  concentrations and  increases  in  nitrogen
concentrations have served to not only reduce  the  total quantity of algae in the water (i.e.,
reduced chlorophyll and Cladophora levels), but also  to shift the species composition away from
nuisance blue-greens and toward more  desirable, and historically prevalent, diatoms. This shift
will likely cause a  change in zooplankton species and density. Trends  in increasing nitrogen
compounds in the Great Lakes may warrant continued monitoring, but they do not appear to be
cause for alarm at this time.
Nutrient Trends and Response - SOLEC Background Paper

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4.0       Where  Do We Go  From  Here?
Phosphorus controls appear to have been successful in lowering the loadings into the lakes, and
consequently reducing, to varying extents, the resultant open lake concentrations of total and
soluble reactive phosphorus.  The desired response in algal biomass, as indicated by chlorophyll
a concentrations, was finally observed in Lake Ontario in 1985 when a 50% decrease occurred.
However, the goal of establishing year-round aerobic conditions  in the hypolimnion of Lake
Erie's Central Basin has not been realized.  Vollenweider and Janus (1981) determined that lake
phosphorus loads would have to be reduced to about 5000 metric t/y for the desired effect on
oxygen and that, consequently, the goal of year-round aerobic conditions in Lake Erie should be
reconsidered. There is also evidence to suggest that there were brief periods of anoxia in some
areas of the Central Basin of Lake Erie for hundreds of years, prior to European colonization and
the onset of cultural eutrophication (Charlton  1980; Delorme 1982; Reynoldson and Hamilton
1993).  Perhaps intermittent  anoxia is an inherent property of the basin, and management to
achieve a state where anoxia  does not occur is not a realistic goal  for lake managers.

What impact have nutrient controls had on the food web? Zooplankton are the pivotal trophic
level in  lake ecosystems, stressed by  both  salmonid  stocking  (top-down) and  phosphorus
abatement (bottom-up) management strategies.  Johannsson et al (1991) compared nearshore and
offshore zooplankton in Lake Ontario between  1981  and 1988 and reported that zooplankton
abundance  had declined as  of 1983-84,  particularly in the  eastern basin, but  the  species
composition did not change appreciably.  They  suggested these changes could have resulted from
a reduced phytoplankton food supply, as a result of lower phosphorus concentrations, combined
with continued levels of predation by alewife.

Changes in phytoplankton abundance and species in Lake Erie from 1970 through the mid-1980s
were also consistent with the expected impacts of reduced nutrient loadings (Makarewicz and
Bertram 1991).  For example, the mean algal biomass during this period declined by 65% (from
3.4 g/m3 to 1.18 g/m3); the nuisance blue-green algae Aphanizomenon flos-aquae decreased 89%
(from 2 g/m3 to 0.22 g/m3); and the number of dominant eutrophic diatom species decreased in
the western basin, whereas the number of dominant mesotrophic species increased (from 1 to 4).

Not all changes in the  lower food web are attributable to changes in phosphorus concentrations.
For example, zooplankton standing stocks in the nearshore region of Lake Michigan declined 10-
fold during 1982-84, although phosphorus concentrations in the offshore waters had not declined
appreciably (Evans 1986). Predation by yellow perch, which confine themselves to the nearshore
regions, was suggested as the  likely cause. In Lake Erie, the recovery of the walleye fishery and
the introduction of a new salmonid fishery also have had a cascading effect on trophic structure.
As  top-level predators increased in  abundance,  forage  fish  abundance  decreased, perhaps
contributing to the establishment of the large predaceous spiny water flea by 1985, and allowing
larger zooplankton to  dominate the community  structure.  Grazing pressure from  these larger
zooplankton appears to have caused a further decrease in algal abundance (Makarewicz and


Nutrient Trends and Response - SOLEC Background Paper                                  13

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Bertram 1991).

Although the desired reductions in phosphorus have been achieved, which have lead to positive
changes in the plankton communities, the question  remains,  "What level  of fishery  can be
sustained by the resultant food base?" Zooplankton comprise almost the entire diet of alewife,
and  are a  significant component of the  diet of smelt.   A  reduction  in  the  abundance of
zooplankton, therefore, could only result in reduced populations of alewife and smelt. The Great
Lakes Fishery Commission reports that alewife and smelt biomass indices have declined since
the early 1980's (GLFC 1992). At the same time, the numbers of hatchery-reared salmon and
trout  stocked in Lake  Ontario steadily  increased  from just over  1 million  in 1972 to
approximately 8.2 million in 1984. As the stocked fish continued to grow and accumulate, the
total weight of salmon and trout reached a peak in  1986 and, since then, has remained high.
Alewife and smelt populations in Lake Ontario are under stress from both ends of the food chain.
How much stocking is too much?

The issue of restoring the balance between stocked predators and their prey  was the subject of
discussion at a series  of public meetings held in  1992 by the agencies responsible for the fish
stocking program in Lake Ontario: the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources  (OMNR) and New
York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYDEC). There emerged consensus that
alewives be maintained as the dominant  forage species,  so  that a diverse fishery could be
maintained.  A scientific task  force,  established by the Lake Ontario Committee of the Great
Lakes  Fishery Commission,  recommended  reduction  of predator  numbers to  stabilize the
predator/prey balance. In response, both OMNR and NYDEC agreed to revise their Lake Ontario
fish stocking plans, using a two-year phased-in approach, beginning in 1993.  For 1993, the two
agencies set a target for predator demand which was 35% lower than 1991 levels. In 1994,
additional stocking reductions were expected to bring about a total reduction of 47% in predator
demand from the 1991 level.  OMNR and NYDEC set targets to stock 5.1 million fish in Lake
Ontario in 1993, and 4.5 million in 1994.  To further reduce the demand for food by predators
already in the system, OMNR  also encouraged increased harvesting of salmon and trout.

Having seen changes in Lake Michigan's food web now starting to appear in Lake Ontario (eg.,
changes in zooplankton species and standing stock; a decline  in  alewife  abundance  and a
resurgence  of walleye, whitefish and yellow perch),  the participants at the  International Joint
Commission's Food Web  II Workshop,  which focussed on Lake Ontario (Hartig et al  1991),
recommended that water quality and fisheries agencies: (1) standardize monitoring techniques and
establish and maintain compatible, long-term, limnological data sets, (2)  cooperate on research
(eg. controlled, mesoscale, whole-system experiments) designed to quantify the rates (eg. growth,
predation, etc.)  of food web  interactions (emphasis must be placed on an interdisciplinary
approach that explicitly  accounts for  time and spatial scale effects), and (3)  promote initiatives
which  quantify the impact of changes in food web dynamics on reduction of toxic substances
levels in Great Lakes  fishes.  Water quality and fisheries agencies are coming to  recognize the
need to act on these recommendations.

In order to  understand the effects of nutrient and food web controls in  lakes  Michigan, Ontario


                                                                                     14

-------
and  Erie, research  should be focussed  on quantifying fluxes of energy, and  collecting  more
information on feeding habits and rates for important species so that food web models can be
constructed.  Of course, this will be complicated by the recent invasion by zebra mussels (and,
in Lake Erie, quagga mussels), and their associated impacts on water quality and the food web.
Drinking water impairment (taste and odor problems), loss of fish habitat, and the production and
edibility of fish are all potential issues of  concern related to zebra mussels.

Zebra mussels  filter-feed all  particles, including large chain-forming diatoms, and even  some
relatively  large zooplankton organisms (Ten Winkle and  Davids,  1982: Maclsaac et al, 1991).
Recent studies in Lake Erie indicate that zebra mussels have caused reductions in phytoplankton
biomass (Nicholls and Hopkins 1993; Hebert et al 1989; Griffiths et al  1991; Holland 1993;
Leach 1993), and they have enhanced water clarity in shallow waters, where they are found in
greatest numbers (Charlton  1994).  The  diversion  of plankton from  pelagic  to benthic food
pathways by zebra mussels could also affect the biomagnification of toxic  organic contaminants
through higher trophic levels (Bruner et al 1994), and could result in increased concentrations
of PCBs and other contaminants in desired sport fish.  The combination of the clearing effect and
the potential for higher  concentrations  of contaminants in fish  species  has particular direct
implications for the walleye fishery in Lake Erie.  There are  currently a number of initiatives,
such as the binational Lake  Erie Trophic Transfer project, that are beginning to  address the
impact of zebra mussels on the Great Lakes ecosystem.

In conclusion, fisheries and water quality management strategies have evolved independently in
the Great Lakes. In general, these strategies operate from different ends of the management
spectrum — bottom-up (phosphorus  control)  and top-down (massive fish stocking).   A  more
ecologically oriented approach, which recognizes the interactions between  fisheries and water
quality,  will be required to effectively manage the Great Lakes.
Nutrient Trends and Response - SOLEC Background Paper                                   15

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5.0  References
Auer, M.T. and R.P. Canale. 1982. Ecological studies and mathematical modeling of Cladophora
in Lake Huron:  3. The dependence of growth rates on internal phosphorus pool size. J. Great
Lakes Res. 8(1): 93-99.

Bennett, E.B. 1986. The nitrifying of Lake Superior. Ambio. 15(5): 272-275.

Bertram, P.E. 1993. Total phosphorus and dissolved oxygen trends in the Central
Basin of Lake Erie. 1970-1991. J. Great Lakes Res. 19(2): 224-236.

Bruner,  K.A., S.W. Fisher and  P.P. Landrum.  1994.   The role of zebra mussel,  Dreissena
polymorpha, in contaminant cycling: II. Zebra mussel contaminant accumulation from algae and
suspended particles, and transfer to the benthic invertebrate, Gammarus fasciatus. J. Great Lakes
Res. 20(4):735-750.

Charlton, M.N.  1980. Oxygen depletion in Lake Erie: has there been any change?
Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 37: 72-81.

Charlton, M.N., I.E. Milne, W.G. Booth, and F.  Chiocchio. 1993. Lake Erie offshore
in 1990: restoration and resilience in the Central Basin.  J. Great Lakes Res. 19(2): 291-309.

Charlton, M.N.. 1994. The case for research on the effects of zebra mussels in Lake Erie:
Summary of information from August and September 1993. Environment Canada, Lakes Research
Branch, NWRI Contribution No. 94-02.

Colt,  J.E.  and D.A.  Armstrong.  1981.  Nitrogen toxicity to crustaceans,  fish and mollusks.
Proceedings  of the Bio-Engineering Symposium for Fish Culture, American Fisheries Society,
Fish Culture Section Publ. 1:34-47

Delorme, L.D. 1982. Lake Erie oxygen: the prehistoric record. Can J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 39: 1021-
1029.

DiToro, D.M and J.P. Connolly. 1980.  Mathematical models of water quality in large
lakes. Part 2: Lake Erie.  Report EPA-600/3-30-065, U.S.  Environmental  Protection Agency,
Office of Research and Development, Duluth, MN.

Dolan, D.  1993.  Point source loadings of phosphorus to Lake Erie: 1986-1990.  J.
Great Lakes  Res. 19(2): 212-223.

Evans, M.S.  1986. Recent major declines in zooplankton populations in the inshore
region of Lake Michigan:  probable causes and implications. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sc. 43: 154-
159.
                                                                                   16

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Forsberg, C.  and S.  Ryding.  1980. Eutrophication parameters^nd trophic state indices in 30
Swedish waste-receiving lakes.  Arch. Hydrobiol. 89: 189-207.

Great Lakes Fisheries Commission. 1992. Signs of Change in the Lake Ontario
Ecosystem.  Prepared by the Lake Ontario Committee.

Great Lakes Science Advisory Board.  1980,  Report of the Aquatic Ecosystem
Objectives Committee. International Joint Commission, Windsor, Ontario.  127 pp.

Griffiths, R.W., D.W. Schloesser, J.H. Leach, and W.P. Kovalak. 1991. Distribution and dispersal
of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) in the Great Lakes region. Can. J, Fish. Aquat. Sci.
48: 1381-1388.

Hartig, J.H. and J.E.  Gannon. 1986. Opposing phosphorus and nitrogen trends in the
Great Lakes.  Alternatives (13): 19-26.

Hartig, J.H., J.F. Kitchell, D. Scavia,  and S.B. Brandt. 1991. Rehabilitation of Lake
Ontario:  the role of nutrient reduction and food web dynamics. Can J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 48: 1574-
1580.

Hebert,  P.D.N.,  B.W. Muncaster, and G.L. Mackie. 1989. Ecological and genetic studies on
Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas): a new mollusc in the Great Lakes.  Can. J. Fish. Aquat.  Sci.
46:1587-1591.

Holland, R.E. 1993. Changes in planktonic diatoms and water transparency in Hatchery Bay. Bass
Island area, Western  lake Erie since the establishment of the zebra mussel. J. Great Lakes Res.
19(3):617-624.

International Joint Commission. 1969. International Lake Erie Water Pollution Board
and the International  Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Water Pollution Board. Pollution of Lake
Ontario and the international section of the St. Lawrence River.

Jackson, M.B. and Y.S. Hamdy. 1982. Projected Cladophora growth in southern Georgian  Bay
in response to proposed municipal sewage treatment plant discharges to the Mary Ward Shoals.
J. Great Lakes Res. 8(1):  153-163.

Johannsson, O.E., E.L. Mills and R. O'Gorman.  1991. Changes in the nearshore and
offshore  zooplankton communities  in Lake Ontario:  1981-1988.  Can. J. Fish.  Aquat. Sci. 48:
1546-1557.

Leach, J.H.. 1993. Impacts of the zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) on water quality and fish
spawning reefs in western Lake Erie.   In Zebra Mussels: Biology, Impact and Control, ed. T.F.
Nalepa and D.W. Schloesser, pp. 381-397. Lewis Publishers Inc., Ann Arbor.
Nutrient Trends and Response - SOLEC Background Paper                                  17

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Maclsaac, H.J., W. G. Sprules, and J.H. Leach. 1991. Ingestion of small-bodied zooplankton by
zebra mussels  (Dreissena  polymorpha):  can  cannibalism on  larvae  influence  population
dynamics? Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 48: 2051-2060.

Makarewicz, J.C. and P. Bertram. 1991.  Evidence for the restoration of the Lake Erie ecosystem:
water quality, oxygen levels and pelagic function appear to be improving. Bioscience 41(4): 216-
223.

Nicholls,  K.H.,  and  G.J.  Hopkins.  1993. Recent  changes  in Lake  Erie  (north  shore)
phytoplankton: cumulative impacts of  phosphorus loading reductions and the zebra mussel
introduction. J. Great Lakes Res., 19(4): 637-647.

Painter,  D.S. and G. Kamaitis. 1987. Reduction of Cladophora biomass and tissue
phosphorus in Lake Ontario.  1972-1983. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 44:  2212-2215.

Painter,  D.S. and M.B. Jackson.  1989. Cladophora internal  phosphorus modeling: Verification.
J. Great Lakes Res. 15(4): 700-708.

Phosphorus Management  Strategies Task Force. 1980. Phosphorus Management for
the Great Lakes. Final Report. International Joint Commission, Windsor, Ontario. 129 pp.

Rast, W. and G.F. Lee. 1978. Summary analysis of the  North American OCED
Eutrophication Project: nutrients, loading-lake response  relationships and trophic  site indices.
Report EPA-600/3-78-008, U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency, Duluth, MN.

Reynoldson, T.B. and A.L. Hamilton. 1993. Historic changes in populations of
burrowing mayflies (Hexagenia  limbata) from Lake Erie based on sediment tusk profiles.  J.
Great Lakes Res. 19(2): 250-257.

Richards, R.P. and D.B. Baker.  1993. Trends in nutrient and suspended sediment
concentrations in Lake Erie tributaries. 1975-1990. J. Great Lakes  Res. 19(2): 200-211.

Smith, V.H. 1983. Low nitrogen to phosphorus ratios favor dominance by blue-green
algae in lake phytoplankton.  Science 221: 669-671.

Stevens, R.J.J. and M.A. Neilson. 1987. Response  of Lake Ontario to reductions in
phosphorus load, 1967-82. Can.  J. Fish, and Aquat. Sci.  44(12): 2059-2068.

Ten Winkel,  E.H., and  C.  Davids. 1982.  Food  selection by Dreissena polymorpha Pallas
(Mollusca: Bivalvia). Freshwat.  Biol.  12:553-558.

Vallentyne, J.R. and N.A. Thomas,  co-chairs. 1978. Fifth year review of Canada
-United  States Great  Lakes Water Quality  Agreement. Report of Task Group III, A Technical
Group  to Review  Phosphorus  Loadings to the  Parties of the Great Lakes  Water  Quality


                                                                                     18

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Agreement of 1972.  Printed by the International Joint Commission, Windsor, Ontario. 84pp.

Vollenweider, R.A. and L.L. Janus. 1981.  The OECD cooperative program in
eutrophication: Canadian contribution. Scientific Series #131, National Water Research Institute,
Inland Waters Directorate, Environment Canada, Burlington, Ontario, Canada.

Williams, D.J. 1992.  Great Lakes water quality, a case study. In: Dunnette and
O'Brien  [Eds.] The  Science of Global  Change: The  Impact  of  Human Activities on  the
Environment. American Chemical Society Symposium Series 483, Washington, pp. 207-223.
Nutrient Trends and Response - SOLEC Background Paper                                  19

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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.     Areas of Concern with eutrophication- or undesirable algae-related impairments.

Figure 2.     Total phosphorus loadings to the Great Lakes (metric tonnes/year).

Figure 3.     Spring mean total phosphorus trends for open lake, 1971 - 1992.

Figure 4a.    1980/1983 Spring total phosphorus concentrations.

Figure 4b.    1991/1992 Spring total phosphorus concentrations.

Figure 5.     Soluble Reactive Phosphorus levels in the Great Lakes, 1968-1992.

Figure 6.     Trends in mean summer chlorophyll a, 1974 -  1992.

Figure 7.     Hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations (meanj+standard deviation) in  the Central
             Basin of Lake Erie, 1987 through 1991. [Bertram, 1993]

Figure 8.     Spring mean nitrate-plus-nitrite trends for open lake,  1968  - 1992.
                                                                                     20

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                                                                                           :Severn Sound
                                                                                          Collingwood Harbour
Fox River and (Sreen Say (



           ;  Sheboygi



     Milwaukee Estuary
                    Grand Calumet River
                    and Indiana Harbor Canal
                                                                                                                Oswego River
                                                                 Cuyahoga River

                                                          . Slack River
                                                                                                       Data Source:  Intemation Joint Commission, 1991.
Figure 1.  Areas of Concern with eutrophication -  or undesirable algae-related impairments

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                                                                                                              ,n

                                                                                                                 1984 1989  1918  1990
                                                                                   1984 1966 1966  191

                                                                                  •Mr
 Data Source: Great Lakes Water Quality Board Report to the International Joint Commission, (1977 -1987)
            1990 Loadings, personal communications (Dave Dolan, IJC-RO).
      Legend

d]Connecting Channels

• Municipal Loadings

[^Atmospheric and

    Industrial  Loadings

• Tributary Loadings

^^~ Proposed TP guideline
    (Phosphorus Management
    Strategies Task
    Force. 198O)
Figure 2.   Total phosphorus loadings to the Great Lakes (metric tonnes/ year).

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       1071  1974 1977 19KJ  1«3 t9J» 1989 1992

                     
-------
*  V  « ; *,-,.. *"
              •r
      *• -
                       «
                  *   *«   *  *  «
               •*  -  »  ^     *
  Legend                       , *
   •0.000 - 0.005                «  I
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    0.007-0.010              * .
   •0.010-0.012               ».*
   •0.012-0.015               **
   •0.015+                    *                  **»
Figure 4a.  1980/1983 Spring total phosphorus concentrations.

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                            -t
                     *  %    V
                                        f; )l»| ';,J;-|->;';           * *»   "   * 4
    Legend                          jp  jii^t'*                ^     *   #
                                                                    »- ^ *
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                                           •
      0.007-0.010                       J                          *          -T"^-» *

    • 0.010-0.012

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    .0.015 +
                                                             Data Source: Environmental Conservation Branch, Environment Canada:  Lakes Superior, Huron and Ontario.
                                                                      Great Lakes National Program Office, US EPA: Lakes Michigan and Erie.
                                                                      Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources: Green Bay.
Figure 4b.  1991 /1992 Spring total phosphorus concentrations.

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                                           .   .  ,  ,  ,	,   »_••»,»•••
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                                                                                                                                                  Great Lakes National Program Office, USEPA
Figure 5.   SRP levels in the Great Lakes, 1968 -1992.

-------
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Figure 6.  Trends in mean summer chlorophyll_a, 1974 -1992.
Data Source: Environmental Conservation Branch, Environment Canada
          Great Lakes National Program Office, US EPA

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                       DISSOLVED OXYGEN  CONCENTRATIONS
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27
    JUNE
Figure 7.
                           JULY         AUG         SEPT
                                        Julian Day
Hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations (mean + standard deviation) in the central basin of Lake Erie, 1987
through 1991. (Bertram, 1993)

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                                                                                 0.50



                                                                                 0.40-



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                                                                                I
                                                                                 OJO



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                                                                                    1974  1977  1MO  1983   1988   1989   1992 1
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                                                                                                           tar                                   *M
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Figure 8.  Spring mean nitrate-plus-nitrite trends for open lake, 1968 -1992.
Data Source:  Environmental Conservation Branch, Environment Canada
              Great Lakes National Program Office, US EPA

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