EPA-230/1-74-0320
JANUARY 1975
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
OF PROPOSED
EFFLUENT GUIDELINES
SUGAR CANE MILLING INDUSTRY
PHASE E
QUANTITY
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Planning and Evaluation
Washington, D.C. 20460
SB
o
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This document is available in limited quantities
through Ruth Brown at the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Information Center, Room W-327
Waterside Mall, Washington, D.C. 20460.
The document will subsequently be available
through the National Technical Information Service,
Springfield, Virginia 22151.
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EPA-230/1-74-032
January, 1975
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PROPOSED
EFFLUENT GUIDELINES
SUGAR CANE MILLING INDUSTRY
Milton L. David
C. Clyde Jones
Robert J. Buzenberg
January, 1975
Prepared for
Office of Planning and Evaluation
Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C. 20460
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This report has been reviewed by the Office
of Planning and Evaluation, EPA, and approved
for publication. Approval does not signify
that the contents necessarily reflect the
views and policies of the Environmental
Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade
names or commercial products constitute en-
dorsement or recommendation for use.
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PREFACE
The attached document is a contractor's study prepared for the Office of
Planning and Evaluation of the Environmental Protection Agency ("EPA").
The purpose of the study is to analyze the economic impact which could re- .
suit from the application of alternative effluent limitation guidelines
and standards of performance to be established under sections 304(b) and
306 of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, as amended.
The study supplements the technical study ("EPA Development Document")
supporting the issuance of proposed regulations under sections 304(b) and
306. The Development Document surveys existing and potential waste treat-
ment control methods and technology within particular industrial source
categories and supports proposal based upon an analysis of the feasibility
of these guidelines and standards in accordance with the requirements of
sections 304(b) and 306 of the Act. Presented in the Development Document
are the investment and operating costs associated with various alternative
control and treatment technologies. The attached document supplements
this analysis by estimating the broader economic effects which might result
from the required applications of various control methods and technologies.
This study investigates the effect of alternative approaches in terms of pro-
duct price increases, effects upon employment and the continued viability
of affected plants, effects upon foreign trade and other competitive effects.
The study has been prepared with the supervision and review of the Office
of Planning and Evaluation of EPA. This report was submitted in fulfill-
ment of Contract No. BOA 68-01-1533, Task Order No. 5 by Development Planning
and Research Associates, Inc., Manhattan, Kansas. Work was completed as of
January, 1975.
This report is being released and circulated at approximately the same time
as publication in the Federal Register of a notice of proposed rule making
under sections 304(b) and 306 of the Act for the subject point source
category. The study is not an official EPA publication. It will be con-
sidered along with the information contained in the Development Document
and any comments received by EPA on either document before or during proposed
rule making proceedings necessary to establish final regulations. Prior
to final promulgation of regulations, the accompanying study shall have
standing in any EPA proceeding or court proceeding only to the extent that
it represents the views of the contractor who studied the subject industry.
It cannot be cited, referenced, or represented in any suspect in any such
proceeding as a statement of EPA's views regarding the subject industry.
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CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
Industry Structure
Financial Profile
Pricing
Impact Methodology
Effluent Control Guidelines and Costs
Impact Analysis
Limits to Analysis
1
1
1
2
3
3
4
5
6
I.
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
A. Types of Firms
II.
B.
C.
D.
E.
FINANCIAL
A.
1.
2.
Types of
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Number of
Size and Number of Firms
Level of Integration and Dive
Plants
Size
Age
Location
Technology
Degree of Integration
Plants and Employees
Relationships to Total Industry
Potential
PROFILE
Plants
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Impact
Industry Profitability
Capital Structure
Cost of Capital
Pro Forma Income Statements -
Invested Capital
Cost Structure
Model Plants
III.
C.
PRICING
A.
Distribution of Data
Ability to Finance New Investment
Demand
B. Supply
1. Consumption
2. Substitutes
3. Elasticity Estimates
1. Supplies
2. Government Sugar Policy
C. World Sugar Economy
1-1
1-1
1-1
1-2
1-5
1-5
1-8
1-8
1-8
1-10
1-10
1-12
1-12
II-l
II-l
II-l
II-4
II-4
II-6
11-17
11-25
11-25
11-26
III-l
III-l
III-l
III-4
III-7
111-10
111-10
111-10
111-14
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CONTENTS (continued)
IV.
V.
VI.
VII.
1. Trade
2. Consumption
3. Stocks
4. Production
5. Processing Capacity
6. Cost of Production
7. Prices
D. Outlook for Prices
E. Expected Price Impacts
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
A. Fundamental Methodology
1. Returns
2. Investment
3. Cost of Capital - After Tax
4. Construction of the Cash Flow
B. Price Effects
C. Shutdown Analysis
D. Production Effects
E. Employment Effects
F. Community Effects
G. Other Effects
EFFLUENT CONTROL GUIDELINES AND COSTS
A. Effluent Control Levels
B. Current Levels of Control
C. Effluent Control Costs
D. Total Effluent Control Costs
IMPACT ANALYSIS
A. Price Effects
B. Financial Effects
1. Effects on Rates of Return and Cash Flows
2. Effects on Net Present Values
C. Production Effects
1. Potential Mill Closures
2. Effects on Industry Growth
D. Employment Effects
E. Balance of Payment Effects
F. Community Impacts
G. Other Impacts
Limits to Analysis
A. General Accuracy
B. Possible Range of Error
C. Critical Assumptions
D. Remaining Questions
111-14
111-15
111-19
111-19
111-25
111-25
111-27
111-32
111-36
IV-1
IV-1
IV-5
IV-6
IV-6
IV-7
IV-9
IV-9
IV-9
IV-9
IV-9
IV-9
V-l
V-l
V-2
V-5
V-18
VI-1
VI-1
VI-3
VI-3
VI-9
VI-21
VI-21
VI-27
VI-29
VI-31
VI-31
VI-32
VII-1
VII-1
VII-1
VII-2
VII-3
APPENDIX
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION
This report analyzes the economic impacts of proposed water pollution
controls on cane sugar milling. It is one of a series of studies pre-
pared under the supervision and review of the Office of Planning and
Evaluation, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, as required by the
Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972.
Under the provisions of Section 304 and 306 of the Federal Water Pol-
lution Control Act, EPA has proposed effluent guidelines which apply to
the manufacture of raw cane sugar. The purpose of this study is to
evaluate the potential economic impacts of those guidelines prior to
their implementation.
The report describes and analyzes the industry structure in terms of:
Number and types of firms and mills
Size and location of mills
Financial profiles of representative model mills
Pricing practices and supply/demand relationships.
Then, pollution control costs are superimposed on the model mill financial
profiles to analyze microeconomic effects, such as unit cost increments
and potential closures. The micro analysis is followed by a macro-
economic analysis to evaluate effects on employment, communities, foreign
trade and balance of payments.
Data for the study were taken from published governmental reports and
industry studies and from confidential information provided by govern-
ment and industry sources.
I. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Cane sugar milling (SIC 2061) is the intermediate step in cane sugar
production. It is closely related to sugar cane production and to cane
sugar refining (SIC 2062). Although geographic variations exist, there
is much integration among firms in growing-milling and in milling-
refining. As of 1971, integration from grower to mill accounted for
about 92 percent of all cane in Hawaii, 90 percent in Florida, 53 percent
in Louisiana and 24 percent in Puerto Rico. Mill-refinery integration
accounted for 100 percent of all sugar in Hawaii and Puerto Rico, 22 per-
cent in Louisiana and only 7 percent in Florida.
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There are 59 firms operating 79 cane sugar mills in Louisiana, Florida,
Texas, Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The firms include large diversified cor-
porations, growers' cooperatives and government-owned and operated cor-
porations (Puerto Rico) as well as specialized sugar companies. There
are some fully integrated firms (farm-mill-refinery), some partially
integrated (farm-mill or mill-refinery) and some non-integrated (mill
only).
Cane sugar mills have been segmented by geographic region (subcategories)
and by size. Size is expressed as grinding capacity of tons of cane per
day. Except for Hawaii (Subcategories III and IV) where capacity is
expressed as net tons of cane per day, size refers to gross tons of cane
per day. Raw sugar output varies among mills according to the length
of the operating season, sucrose content of the cane and the percentage
utilization of the mills' capacities. Florida has the largest mills,
followed by Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Louisiana. The newer mills tend to
be larger, although most mills are generally very old (pre-World War II).
Mills are located near the sugar cane growing regions.
Statistics on employment are vague, with an estimated 8,000
persons employed in the 79 mills.
II. FINANCIAL PROFILE
Precise financial data for cane sugar mills are not readily available.
Some confidential data have been analyzed and synthesized to construct
model mills for each subcategory. From published corporate reports and
unpublished data, industry profitability has been estimated at approx-
imately 8 percent on equity (1969-1973). Based on industry averages of
debt to equity and the dividends paid from 1969 through 1973, the cost
of capital has been estimated at 7 percent.
Model mills definitely show economies of scale, with the larger Florida
mills having the highest estimated returns on invested capital. Small
Louisiana, Hawaiian (Subcategory IV) and Puerto Rican mills appear un-
profitable under 1973 cost-price conditions. Medium sized Louisiana mills
and small Hawaiian (Subcategory III) mills operate at just about a break-
even point, while large Louisiana and medium-sized Hawaiian mills earn
very modest returns (3 to 4 percent) on invested capital. Florida mills
earn 14 to 15 percent on investment.
Under 1973 economic conditions, Florida mill owners should be able to
finance new investment, but smaller mills in Louisiana, Hawaii and
Puerto Rico present a doubtful picture.
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III. PRICING
Pricing of raw cane sugar is complex. Demand is derived from the final
demand for sweeteners in general, which includes refined cane sugar,
beet sugar, corn sweeteners, and non-caloric sugar substitutes. The
U.S. imported about 45 percent of its estimated 1973 total supply of
sugar (11.5 million short tons); domestic production of the remaining
6.2 million tons is divided 55-45 percent between beet sugar and cane
sugar. Thus, the world sugar economy is critically important to the
United States.
Furthermore, the U. S. sugar industry has been protected and regulated
by the Federal government under a quota system which gives the effect
of price administration. Prior to 1974, U.S. prices have been higher
than world prices. The pricing picture has been complicated by the
expiration in December, 1974, of the U.S. Sugar Act of 1948. The 1974
sugar prices have skyrocketed, leaving future sugar prices subject only
to speculative estimates.
The record high prices of 1974 have started moving downward. How fast
and how far prices decline is a matter for speculation, but a new
equilibrium price level is not expected prior to 1980. The primary
reason for this delay in reaching a new equilibrium is that world pro-
jected demand for sugar exceeds projected supply through 1980. It is
doubtful that the necessary capital and managerial know-how is avail-
able to permit mill capacity expansion of a sufficient magnitude to
overcome the supply deficiency.
In the short run, raw sugar prices may fall to $.20 to $.25 (1973
dollars) per pound. Over the long run, prices may fall to equal the
economic costs of production, somewhere between $.10 and $.15 (1973
dollars) per pound of raw sugar, but prices are not likely to return to
their low-points of the late 1960's.
IV. IMPACT METHODOLOGY
The fundamental methodology used in the impact analysis is the same as
that normally used in capital budgeting studies of new investments. The
model plant budgets provide the basic data for the analysis.
The model plants though not precisely representative of any single plant
operation, reflect the financial and physical characteristics of the in-
dustry. Adjustments to model plant budgets to reflect pollution control
investment and annual operating costs permit pre- and post-pollution
control economic analysis for impacts on prices, profitability and pro-
duction.
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Probable plant closures, a key part of the analysis, are determined
through a net present-value analysis, by which expected future cash pro-
ceeds are discounted at the firm's estimated cost of capital rate. A net
present-value of less than zero implies that the owner would be better
off to liquidate his plant and reinvest the salvage proceeds at the
cost of capital rate.
Price increases required to return the plant to pre-pollution control
levels of profitability are then calculated to estimate expected price
effects. An evaluation of ability to pass on required price increases
follows.
Finally, a qualitative analysis of economic determinants indicates the
broad macroeconomic effects on agricultural production, employment,
communities and balance of payments.
A detailed description of the methodology appears in Chapter IV.
V. EFFLUENT CONTROL GUIDELINES AND COSTS
Effluent control guidelines, technology and costs were furnished by
the Effluent Guidelines Division of the Environmental Protection Agency.
The cane sugar milling industry was divided into five subcategories:
I -- Louisiana
II - Florida
III -- Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
IV -- Hawaii (Other)
V -- Puerto Rico
Effluent Guidelines Division of EPA has provided information on in-
place technology for each mill and cost estimates for meeting proposed
standards in 1977 with the best practical control technology currently
available (BPT) and in 1983 with the best available technology economically
achievable (BAT). Subcategories II (Florida) and IV (Hawaii-Other) re-
portedly have sufficient effluent control technology in place to meet
proposed BPT and BAT guidelines. No impact analysis will be performed
for these two subcategories.
The other three subcategories have varying percentages of impacted mills.
Subcategory I (Louisiana) has 39 operating mills, of which eight must
install new technology to meet proposed BPT requirements; these eight
mills represent about 20 percent of daily grinding capacity in Louisiana.
Twenty-six (26) mills, representing 65 percent of daily capacity, cur-
rently require new control facilities to meet BAT guidelines.
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In Subcategory III (Hawaii-Hilo Coast), all four (4) of the mills need
additional control facilities for both BPT and BAT guidelines. Ten (10)
of eleven (11) mills in Subcategory V (Puerto Rico) must install new
controls to meet BPT guidelines, and nine (9) mills will have additional
investment in controls to meet BAT standards.
For the U.S. as a whole, mills accounting for about 24 percent of 1973
raw sugar production will need investment in BPT pollution controls and
mills accounting for about 32 percent of 1973 production will require
additional investment to meet BAT guidelines. An estimated 66 percent
of production will require no pollution control expenditure.
Annualized pollution control costs (BPT) range from near zero up to 82
cents per hundredweight of sugar (Subcategory III). BAT costs are as
high as 37 cents per hundredweight (Subcategory I), with BPT plus BAT
reaching a high of 96 cents (Subcategory III).
VI. IMPACT ANALYSIS
The analysis of economic impacts of pollution controls on cane sugar
mills was complicated by the uncertainty about future sugar prices.
Accordingly, variable price alternatives were used, with a high of $20.00
per hundredweight (1977-79) and a low of $10.29 (1980 and after). Inter-
mediate level prices ($15.00 and $12.50) were also used in the various
price scenarios. In all, six price scenarios were used where applicable
to evaluate BPT and BAT impacts.
Under the highest price alternatives, no closures are expected in any of
the three subcategories. At the lowest projected price level, baseline
closures (not due to pollution controls) may occur in Louisiana and
Puerto Rico, with relatively few closures potentially attributable
directly to pollution control costs. Effects of pollution control
costs on model mills' rates of returns on invested capital and on net
present values are most severe on small Louisiana ano Puerto Rican mills.
Closure Analysis is extremely coinpie/, owing to t^e r.>^:ce variables. -t
the lowest prices, baseline closure;; are probable- for nearly all cf ^he
impacted plants with few closures attributable directly to pollution con-
trols. An estimated maximum of 4.5 percent of U. S. production might close
due to BPT controls, and up to an estimated 4.8 percent of U. S. production
might close due to BPT plus BAT. Another estimated 3.8 percent of U.S. pro-
duction might close due to BAT controls required by plants already meeting
BPT controls. The total closure due to BAT is estimated to be 8.6 percent
of U.S. production.
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Under the highest price scenario of $20.00 per hundredweight for 1977-1979,
$15.00 per hundred for 1980-82 and $12.50 per hundredweight for 1983 and
after, no closures due to BPT controls are anticipated. However, seven
to twelve plants in Louisiana and Puerto Rico may close due to BAT con-
trols under this price scenario. These plants represent approximately
2.7 to 6.0 percent of current U.S. raw cane sugar production.
The effect of new source performance standards (NSPS) on industry growth
has not been analyzed quantitatively. EPA has not issued definitive NSPS
investment and annual pollution control costs, although the Effluent
Guidelines Division has estimated that NSPS will not exceed BPT plus BAT
costs. Since new mills in Florida-Texas reportedly meet BPT-BAT standards,
it appears that NSPS would not curtail new mill construction in that region.
The impact on growth in Louisiana, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico is more difficult
to evaluate, although at raw sugar prices above $.10 (1973 dollars) per
pound, there should be little negative impact.
Effects of pollution controls on employment will be related to mill
closures. Under the lowest price scenario, a maximum number of jobs lost
due to pollution control induced closures would be approximately 1,750.
At higher prices, the impact on jobs would be small. Lost jobs would
be concentrated largely in Louisiana and Puerto Rico. It. should be
noted that baseline closures would probably cause a greater loss of
jobs than would pollution controls, given the lowest price scenario.
The impact on balance of payments would be very small. If all production
lost due to pollution control induced closures were replaced by imports,
outflow of U.S. payments would increase by only about $500,000. Production
losses due to baseline closures could accoifnt for an additional $1,000,000.
VII. LIMITS TO ANALYSIS
Based on available data, this analysis represents a systematic evaluation
of the impact of proposed effluent guidelines on the cane sugar milling
industry. It should be recognized, however, that the world sugar economy
(prices, supply, demand) is in a state of flux. Future prices are especially
uncertain, creating a major complication in estimating 1977 and 1983 in-
dustry conditions.
Model mill parameters, while representative of mills in the various sub-
categories, may not be representative of specific operating mills. Also,
1973 cost-price relationships may not reflect 1977 or 1983 conditions.
Economic data on Puerto Rico are sketchy and may not provide an adequate
basis for analysis.
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There is a major remaining question of future U.S. sugar policy. Although
the Sugar Act of 1948 expired on December 31, 1974, future U.S. policy is
unknown. Also, the ability of foreign producers to expand sugar production
and the future costs of that production remain questionable.
The effects of new source performance standards on industry growth remain
in doubt. Precise cost data for NSPS investment and operating costs are
not available, precluding a meaningful quantitative analysis of NSPS on
new mill construction.
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I. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Cane sugar processing, a segment of SIC 206 (Sugar), is subdivided
into SIC 2061 (Sugar Cane Milling) and SIC 2062 (Sugar Cane Refining).
Although sugar cane milling is closely related to sugar cane refining
(the subject of a separate report, ]_/), the present report deals
only with the sugar cane milling classification.
A. Types of Firms
Sugar cane milling is handled by four distinct types of business
organizations: (1) large, diversified, integrated corporations,
(2) smaller sugar producing corporations with varying degrees of
integration, (3) growers' cooperatives, and (4) government owned
and operated mills.
1. Size and Number of Firms
There are 59 firms operating 79 cane sugar mills in the United States
(including Puerto Rico). These firms range in size from large diver-
sified companies, such as Gulf and Western Industries and Castle and
Cooke, Inc. down to relatively small, one-plant companies.
Nine firms have two or more plants. Listed below by estimated daily
production capacity,the annual raw sugar production of these firms
varies in terms of number of operating days and sugar content of the
cane. Such variations make annual production data difficult to compare.
Other large producers appear in the plant lists in the Appendix.
Milton L. David and Robert J. Buzenberg, Economic Analysis of Pro-
posed Effluent Guidelines: Cane Sugar Refining Industry, EPA-
230/1-73-003, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Planning and Evaluation, Washington, D. C., October, 1973.
1-1
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Multi-plant Cane Sugar Milling Firms
No. Mills Estimated Capacity
(Gross tons per day)
1. U. S. Sugar Co. 2 22,000
2. Amfac 5 19,050 1
3. Alexander Baldwin Ltd. 4 15,100
4. Zapata - Narvess (South Coast) 4 14,400
5. Southdown Lands 3 10,900
6. Castle & Cooke, Inc. 2 7,400 I/
7. C. Brewer & Co. 3 U 7,300 V
8. Hilo Coast Processing Co. 4 6,960 V
9. Theo H. Davis 2 5,700 I/
Net tons per day
C. Brewer, through a subsidiary, owns 50 percent of Hilo
Coast Processing Co.
2. Level of Integration and Diversification
Cane sugar milling has considerable backward vertical integration into
growing and harvesting. There are variations by growing area, but
mill owners frequently grow cane and own cane land. There is also
some forward integration into the refining and marketing of cane sugar,
but to a much lesser degree. Tables 1-1 and 1-2 reflect the 1971
patterns of integration by area.
Puerto Rican operations, under government ownership and control, are
totally integrated from milling through refining. But 76 percent of
all cane is independently grown, mostly on thousands of small farms.
In Hawaii, integrated companies owned 26 mills operating in 1971 and
produced 92 percent of the islands' cane. The mills from five of
these companies own shares in the California and Hawaiian Sugar Company
which refines and markets all of the sugar.
Florida has 90 percent of its raw sugar production integrated from grower
to mill. Only one mill is integrated forward to refining, accounting
for 7 percent of raw sugar output in the state.
Louisiana shows extensive independent ownership of both cane farms
and mills. An estimated 53 percent of the Louisiana cane production
is on mill-owned land. In 1971, eight of the 43 mills in the state
were integrated forward to refineries and accounted for 22 percent of
the state's raw sugar production. Seven of these mills owned by three
companies are totally integrated from growing through to refining. In
addition, the cooperative movement in Louisiana is spreading with
growers organizing to purchase mills.
1-2
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Table 1-1 Cane sugar processing integration relationship, grower-
mill integration, 1971 production
Louisiana
Florida
Production Pet Production
Total Cane (000 acres)
Total Cane (000 tons) 7,
No. of Farms 1,
Total Raw Sugar (000 tons)
Total Mills
Grower-Mill Integration
Co-op Mills
Administration Cane (000 tons) 2,
Independent Cane (000 tons)
Total Cane 2,
Corporation Mills
Administration Cane (000 tons) 1,
Independent Cane (000 tons) 3,
Total Cane (000 tons) 5;
Government Mills
Administration Cane (000 tons)
Independent Cane (000 tons)
Total Cane (000 tons)
Total Administration Cane (000 tons) 4,
Total Independent Cane (000 tons) 3,
Total Cane (000 tons) 7,
Total cane acreage - only 1/2 hai'vei
301
974
513
571
43
8
536
417
953
35
663
358
021
0
0
0
0
199
775
974
ted each
Sources: Hawaiian Sugar Planter's Association
Gilmore Sugar Manual 1971
34 194
25 6,388
130
20 635
8
3
86 2,127
14 11
2, 138
5
33 3,630
67 620
4,250
0
0
0
0
53 5,757
47 631
6,388
yea r due to 22
Su ga r Ma nua 1 ,
Hawaii
Pet Production
22 232-
20 10,685
528
23 1,229
26
4
99 914
1 391
1,305
22
85 8,911
15 469
9,380
0
0
0
0
90 9,825
10 860
10,685
-24 month crop
1973
Puerto Rico
Pet Production Pet
26 153 18
34 6,437 21
4,202
45 324 12
16
0
70 0
30 0
0
0
95 0
5 0
0
16
1,568 24
4, 869 76
6,437
92 1,568 24
8 4, 869 76
6,437
maturity.
Total
Production Pet
880
31,484
6,373
2,759
93
15
5,577
819
6,396
62
14,204
4,447
18,651
16
1, 568
4, 869
6,437
21,349
10,135
31,484
100
100
100
87
13
"7 f~
76
24
24
76
68
32
USDA -ASCS various data
Puerto Rico Land Administration Data
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Table 1-2 Cane sugar processing integration relationship, mill-refinery
integration, 1971
Total Cane (000 acres)
Total Cane (000 tons)
No. of Farms
Total Raw Sugar (000 tons)
Total Mills
Mill-Refinery Integration
Integrated Mill
Raw Sugar (000 tons)
Non Integrated Mill
Raw Sugar (000 tons)
Total Raw Sugar
Total cane acreage - only 1/2
Sources: Hawaiian Sugar Plante
Gilmore Sugar Manual
Louisiana
Production Pet
301 34
7,974 25
1,513
571 20
43
8
124 22
35
447 78
571
harvested each year
Florida
Production
194
6,388
130
635
8
1
46
7
589
635
due to 22-
Hawaii
PctProduction Pet
22 232-26
20 10,685 34
528
23 1,229 45
26
26
7 1,229 100
0
93 00
1,229
Puerto Rico
Production Pet
153 18
6,437 21
4,202
324 12
16
16
324 100
0
0
324
Total
Production
880
31,484
6,373
2,759
93
51
1,723
42
1,036
2,759
Pet
100
100
100
62
38
24 month crop maturity.
r' s Assn. Sugar Manual, 1972.
1971
USDA-ASCS Various data
Puerto Rico Land Administration Data
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The amount of diversification varies widely. The Hawaiian companies
are highly.diversified corporations with cane sugar subsidiaries. The
Louisiana firms are, for the most part, specialized sugar companies
or cooperatives, with about one-third of the firms having other product
lines (data are not available to determine the extent of diversification
for these companies). Florida appears to have only one highly diversi-
fied firm. Generally, the large companies are diversified, while the
small owners derive their revenues primarily from sugar sales.
B. Types of Plants
Cane sugar mills can be classified by size, age, location, level of
technology and degree of integration.
1. Size
Cane sugar mills range in size from 12,000 tons of cane per day in
Florida to 360 tons per day in Louisiana. There is some geographic
variation with Florida having larger mills and Louisiana, smaller
mills. Table 1-3 presents the number of mills in various size ranges
for each of the four producing areas. Appendix Tables 1 through 4
list each mill by daily tons of cane processed. Annual capacity is a
function of daily capacity times number of operating days per year.
As an examination of Table 1-3 and Appendix Tables 1 through 4 indicate,
the largest Louisiana mill handled 6,000 tons of cane per day in 1973.
Twelve of the area's 39 mills were over 4,000 TPD capacity and accounted
for 44 percent of Louisiana's capacity. Fifteen mills were from 2,601
to 4,000 TPD and produced 38 percent of the area's capacity. Twelve
plants were 2,600 TPD or less and made up 18 percent of Louisiana's
capacity.
Florida's largest mill handled 12,125 tons per day. The eight Florida mills
were divided into two size ranges, with three under 8,500 TPD and five over
8,500 TPD. The single Texas mill has a daily capacity of 8,500 tons of
cane. Mills over 8,500 TPD handled 69 percent of Subcategory II's capacity.
Hawaii's largest mill had a daily capacity of 6,500 net tons of cane.
Six mills ranged up to 2,000 net TPD (18 percent of Hawaiian capacity),
10 mills were in the 2,001 to 4,000 net TPD range (49 percent of Hawaiian
capacity) and four mills were over 4,000 net TPD (33 percent).
Puerto Rico's largest mill produced 8,600 tons daily. Two mills were
7,500 and 8,600 tons per day (29 percent of Puerto Rican capacity), five
mills fell in the 4,001 - 6,250 TPD range (48 percent) and four mills
ranged from 1,200 to 4,000 TPD (23 percent).
1-5
-------
Table 1-3. Distribution of cane suaar mills by size by geographic area,
1973
Subcategory and No. of Total . Perc.ent of
size (TPD) Range mills capacity area capacity
_ _ _ ___ _
I -- Louisiana
0 - 2,600 12 25,060 18
2,601 - 4,000 15 51,050 38
4,001 - 6,000 12 58,850 44
Subtotal 39 134,960 100
II -- Florida & Texas
0 - 8,500 4 24,230 31
8,501 - 12,125 _5 54,125 69
Subtotal 9 78,355 100
III and IV -- Hawaii
0 - 2,000 6 10,810 18
2,001 - 4,000 10 30,150 49
4,001 - 6,500 _4 20,600 33
Subtotal 20 61,560 100
V -- Puerto Rico
0 - 2,000 1 1,200 2
2,001 - 6,000 7 31,500 57
6,001 - 8,600 _3 22,350 _41_
Subtotal 11 55,050 100
Gross tons of cane per day, except Hawaii, where net tons are used.
Plant capacities are from the plant lists in the Appendix.
1-6
-------
The size of mills has been stated in terms of tons of cane per day but
the term requires clarification since three separate cane weight defini-
tions can be found and will vary by geographic area.
. Gross cane, measured in short tons, is the field weight of
cane as unloaded at the mill.
Net cane is a calculated or estimated weight which is gross
cane minus trash, mud, stones, and other non-cane material.
. A third term (not used in this report in expressing mill
size) is standard cane. This, a theoretical weight, converts
net cane into a standard weight of cane with a standard
percent of sucrose (12%) in normal juice and with a purity
of at least 76.00 but not more than 76.49 percent. If the
quality of the cane is good, the standard cane weight will
be greater than the net cane weight. Conversely, poor
quality cane will have a standard weight less than net cane
weight.
In Florida, for all practical purposes, gross cane equals net cane.
Almost all Florida cane is hand harvested and is free of trash. As
Florida converts to mechanical harvesting this will change.
At the other extreme, net cane in Hawaii is usually considered to be
50 percent of gross cane. All Hawaiian cane is mechanically harvested
and the process picks up mud, stones, trash and other material to the
point that gross cane is approximately double the weight of net cane.
In Louisiana a wide variety of harvesting methods is used. The 1973
average net cane weighed 86 percent of the field weighed gross cane.
In 1971, the figure was 87.4 percent and in 1972, it was 85.8 percent. I/
Comparative gross and net cane records for Puerto Rico are not available,
but since most cane is hand harvested the assumption is that gross cane
equals net cane.
In this report, capacity figures refer to gross cane in Florida, Louisiana
and Puerto Rico and to net cane in Hawaii. This assumed convention will
make the mills more nearl-y directly comparable with the exception of
Louisiana where net cane is 86 percent of gross cane.
]_/ According to records at the Louisiana State University Research
facility and a sugar factory.
1-7
-------
2. Age
Precise data on the age of most cane sugar mills are not available.
Generally, mills are old; however, several mills were built after
1960 in Florida and one new mill was constructed in Texas in 1973
and began operations in 1974. Original construction dates are
relatively meaningless for mills built prior to World War II, however,
since remodeling and modernization have been extensive.
3. Location
In contrast to the usual practice of locating cane sugar refineries
close to marketing or distribution areas, sugar cane mills are
located near the four growing areas of Hawaii, Florida, Louisiana,
and Puerto Rico (the new Texas mill is located near the mouth of
the Rio Grande River). The principle locational determinant for
milling is the rapid deterioration of harvested cane. Since it must
be processed quickly, short hauls to mills are mandatory. This
factor also accounts for the high degree of integration between
grower and mill.
Appendix Tables 1 through 4 and Appendix Figures 1 through 4 give the
specific location of each of the operating mills in the four major geo-
graphic areas.
4. Technology
Cane sugar milling is the first step in the processing of refined
sugar from sugar cane. The milling process employs a relatively simple
technology. The mills convert cane into raw sugar (96 percent sucrose)
by (1) grinding and shredding the cane, (2) extracting the juice, (3)
crystalizing the sucrose in the juice and (4) separating the crystals
from the juice. The details of the various operations may differ slightly
from mill to mill, but the manufacturing process is basically the same in
all mills.
Pure sucrose (96 percent) is the ultimate product in raw sugar manu-
facturing. The exact amount of sucrose varies by sugar cane plant
varieties and agronomic factors, but, typically, cane contains approx-
imately 15 percent fiber and 85 percent juice by weight. The juice
normally consists of about 82 percent water, 14 percent sucrose, and
4 percent non-sucrose soluble solids, including invert sugars and
impurities.
The important sugars in cane juice are the simple monosaccharides and
disaccharides composed of five or six carbon chains. Of these, sucrose,
glucose, and fructose are the most important. Glucose and fructose (in-
vert sugars) are six carbon monosaccharide isomers. The inversion or
hydrolyzation of sucrose into glucose and fructose represents lost pro-
duction.
1-8
-------
In the milling process, the condition of the cane upon arrival at the
mill is important. As mechanical harvesting techniques replace
hand harvesting, the mud, dirt and leaf trash content of the cane
increase, necessitating washing prior to grinding. This cane cleaning
process requires large volumes of water. Some mills have adopted
dry cleaning operations, but the process is not yet as effective as
cane washing, especially when mud must be removed after heavy rains.
Further improvements in the dry cleaning process can be important in
reducing the amount of cane sugar mill effluents.
After the cane is cleaned, it is ground or shredded and the juice ex-
tracted. The extracted juice contains impurities, including fine par-
ticles of bagasse, fats, waxes and gums. Coarser particles (cush-cush)
are removed by screening. A substantial portion of the remaining im-
ourities are removed by clarification.
In the clarification process, the juice is divided into (1) clarified
juice and (2) precipitated sludge (muds). The clarified juice constitutes
from 80 to 90 percent of the original juice and is usually taken directly
to the evaporator system. The sludge is usually treated by rotary vacuum
filters.
The clarified juice is then evaporated to reduce its water content from
about 85 percent to 40 percent, leaving about 60 percent solids. Most
plants use multiple-effect evaporators for better fuel economy in con-
centrating the juice.
After evaporation, the juice is crystallized in vacuum panssingle-
effect, batch-type evaporators. Calandria pans are commonly used.
In this stage of processing, the sugar solution must be supersaturated
to produce sugar crystals. This supersaturation occurs in three phases
of sugar boiling: (1) the metastable phase in which existing crystals
grow but new crystals do not form; (2) the intermediate phase in which
existing crystals grow and new crystals form; and (3) the labile phase
in which new crystals form spontaneously without the presence of other
crystals.
Following the formation of crystals in the vacuum pans, the solution
(massecuite) is discharged into a mixer where it is agitated gently.
It then flows to a high speed centrifuge which separates crystals from
the syrup. Crystals remaining in the centrifuge are washed with hot
water to remove the remaining syrup. The crystalline sugar is then
removed to storage.
Usually the crystalline sugar is moved to storage on belt or screw
conveyors. From bulk storage in the warehouse, the sugar moves by
truck, r'ah'l or ship to the refineries.
1-9
-------
5. Degree of Integration
Integration of cane sugar milling with growing-harvesting and with
refining has been discussed earlier under "Types of Firms." Tables
1-1 and 1-2 present the degree of integration in the various growing
areas.
Seven mills are directly integrated on site with refining. Three of
these are in Florida, three in Puerto Rico, and one in Louisiana.
Several other mills, which are owned by corporations with refineries,
operate at separate locations on a "stand-alone" basis.
While cane sugar mills produce raw sugar as a primary product, they do
have by-products--bagasse and molasses. Bagasse, cane fiber and pulp,
is frequently burned to produce energy for the milling process. Some
bagasse is sold for animal feeds; some goes into building materials such
as celotex. Revenue from the sale of bagasse is relatively insignificant
as a percent of mill sales.
Molasses, on the other hand, is an important by-product and -js used
primarily as an animal feed supplement (a small percentage is used
in food flavorings, colorings, and syrups). Puerto Rican molasses is
utilized in rum production. Other uses include ethyl and butyl alcohol
production and the manufacture of acetic and citric acids. Molasses
sales historically have accounted for about 3.6 percent of total mill
revenues, but in 1973 the percentage more than doubled owing to a sharp
rise in molasses prices.
C. Number of Plants and Employees
Statistics on the numoer of employees in the cane sugar milling industry
are neither current nor precise. The most recent year for which Depart-
ment of Commerce Census data are available is 1971. Reported production
workers in that year totaled 5,700 in 83 mills, with total employment
at 7,500, according to the Annual Survey of Manufactures, 1971. !_/
From industry sources, it appears that the number of employees averages
about 100 per individual plant. Based on this estimate, there were
about 8,000 employees for the 79 U. S. cane sugar mills in 1973.
- M71(AS)-10, Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, D. C., 1973.
1-10
-------
PRODUCERS
World
Acres
PRODUCTS
Domestic
Acres
31 Export Countries 7% !/
-
r
35% 1 40%
3% | 5%
25%
PROCESSORS
Cane Mills
Raw Sugar
J
Corn
l
Refineries
PRODUCTS
I I
Refined Sugar
Beet Sugar
Factories
Wet Corn
Mills
Beet Sugar Corn Sweeteners
CONSUMERS
Sugar
Ma rket
Sweetenei
Market
- ^^_^ ___^ _
\
4
4
(
7%
0%
t
1
1
1
\
2
1
I 4
T "
' i
2% | 31%
9% | 26% ,
^
1
3% ]
Approximate percentage of total world acres used to produce U. S. raw sugar imports.
Figure 1- 1* Structure of the domestic sweetener industry.
(Percentages as of 1971.)
-------
D. Relationships to Total Industry
Cane sugar milling is directly tied to the growing of sugar cane and
to the refining of raw sugar. It is also related to the beet sugar
industry for refined cane and beet sugars are essentially identical
products.
Milling represents the intermediate process in refined cane sugar pro-
duction. Cane sugar mills are, thus, highly dependent on growers for
their supply of cane and on refineries for the disposition of their
raw sugar. For the total cane sugar industry, the number of farms,
mills and refineries in the United States in 1973 is as follows:
6,373 cane farms
79 cane mills
29 refineries
In addition, there are 52 beet sugar plants in the United States
producing 31 percent of U. S. refined sugar.
Foreign raw sugar imports are an additional consideration. Forty-seven
percent of U. S. domestic sugar consumption is derived from imported
raw sugar.
When the sugar industry is viewed in the broader terms of all sweetening
products, corn sweeteners become important and represent 15 percent
of the total sweetener market.
Figure 1-1 shows the structure of the domestic sweetener industry and
reveals the relationship of the cane sugar milling industry to the
other segments.
E. Potential Impact
Under 1973 market conditions, small mills are most likely to be impacted
by the imposition of pollution controls. All Louisiana mills, with
apparent low profits, will probably suffer, as well as some Hawaiian
mills on the Hilo-Hamakua Coast that have special difficulties resulting
from terrain and high rainfall. It is very difficult to assess the
economic impact of pollution control costs on the Puerto Rican mills,
since governmental policies play such an important role.
1-12
-------
II. FINANCIAL PROFILE
Financial data for individual operating plants are generally unavailable.
Published financial data for the large publicly-held corporations do
exist, but since these are generally diversified corporations, the data
may not reflect specifically the cane mill operations. Limited confiden-
tial information on specific plants was obtained, and though not identified
in this report, much of that data provided the basis for this analysis.
Given such data limitation, model plants provided the most reasonable
insight into the financial aspects of the various cane milling operations.
Model plant categories, matched to the size of typical operating mills
in the various geographical locations, were established and are presented
in Table II-l. Budgets for these model plants were used to construct the
financial profiles for the various cane sugar milling segments.
A. Plants
The model plant budgets represent the best available estimates of actual
cost-price data. In addition to these estimates, some further bench-
marks concerning industry profitability, capital structure and cost of
capital were derived from an examination of published sources (corporate
annual reports and government economic studies) and from confidential
operating data for cane mills. These sources made possible the develop-
ing of ranges of profitability and estimates of capital structures and
capital costs. These gave additional perspective to the model plant
profiles.
1. Industry Profitability
Published financial data for six of the ten largest firms in cane milling
were analyzed to provide one measure of profitability. Again, it is
necessary to offer a orecautionary reminder that these are diversified
companies which may not be representative of the specialized cane sugar
mill operators. Even so, their performance may be regarded as somewhat
of an upper range for the industry as a whole. Table II-2 presents
selected average financial ratios for these six firms, based on available
data for the five-year period, 1969-73.
While these simple averages do not apply specifically to cane mills as
such, they do provide an indication of the financial strength of some
of the leading companies which operate mills. Their net income to sales
ratio is above the average for all U. S. corporations, while the 9.7
percent return on net worth is slightly below the U. S. average. The
companies are in reasonably sound financial condition, with ample room
for borrowing additional long-term capital. It is noteworthy that four
of the companies showed rising returns on net worth in 1973.
H-l
-------
Table II-l. Model plant segments
Subcategory
Subsegment
Size!/
I -- Louisiana
II -- Florida & Texas
III -- Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
IV -- Hawaii (Other
V -- Puerto Rico
Small
Medium
Large
Small
Large
Small
Medium
Large
Small
Medium
Large
Medium
Large
2,200
3,300
5,000
6,000
10,000
1,800
3,300
4,800
1,800
3,300
4,800
4,500
8,000
I/
Capacity shown in gross tons cane per day except for Hawaii which is
stated in net tons. .
II-2
-------
Table II-2. Selected financial ratios for six diversified companies
engaged in cane sugar milling, 1969-73
Percent of sales
Range
High
Low
Wtd. Av.
Operating
income
35.0
7.7
16.9
Net
income
16.3
2.8
7.4
Cash
flow
20.9
5.5
10.4
Net income
as percent
of net worth
13.3
6.3
9.7
Long-term debt
as percent of
total capital
48
2
26
II-3
-------
Geographic variations in profitability were reported in an earlier study
released in 1973 by the United States Department of Agriculture. !/_
That report based on Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service
Statistics analyzed operating data for each producing area. The data
were for three-year periods, although the actual years vary. A summary
of these results appears in Table II-3.
Table 11-3 indicates that the ratio of net income to net worth was
negative for small Louisiana and Florida mills and for both large and
small Puerto Rican mills. Large mills in Louisiana and Florida had modest
returns. Much higher returns, reflecting the area's longer operating
season and consequently more efficient use of invested capital, were
characteristic of Hawaiian mills.
2. Capital Structure
Adequate information was not available to definitively calculate the
debt-equity structures for operating companies. As noted above, the
debt as a percent of total capital ranged from 2 to 48 percent for these
six companies, with the weighted average at 26 percent. It is reason-
able to assume a debt-equity mix of about one-fourth and three-fourths.
This is the ratio which was used in calculating the cost of capital.
3. Cost of Capital
The estimated cost of financing new investment was derived from an
analysis of the financial reports of publicly held companies and from
confidential industry data. Four factors were estimated: (1) common
equity to total capital, (2) long-term debt to total capital, (3) five-
year average for dividend yield on common stock, and (4) five-year
average for earnings on common stock.
The estimated averages were as follows:
Common equity/Total capital .75
Long-term debt/Total capital .35
Dividend yield, 5-year average .030
Earnings, 5-year average .081
Other assumptions were: (1) long-term interest rates averaged 8.0 per-
cent, (2) the corporate tax rate was 22 percent on the first $25,000
and 48 percent on income above $25,000, (3) the growth rate in dividends
was at least equal to the annual inflation rate, which for this analysis
is estimated at 5 percent.
Bruce J. Walter and Peter M. Emerson, Initial Analysis of the Economic
Impact of Water Pollution Control Costs Upon the U. S. Sugar Industry,
Economic Research Service, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Washington,
D. C., March, 1973.
II-4
-------
Table II-3. Sugar cane mills: selected operating and financial data by production area and mill size,
all domestic sugar cane areas, three year averages
Production area/ time
period/mill sire I/
Louisiana, 1969-71 aver.
Small (*3,600 tons/day).
Large (>-3,600 tons/ day) .
All mills
Florida, 1967-69 aver.
Small «7,000 tons/day).
Large (»7,000 tons/day).
All mills
Hawaii, 1967-69 aver.
Small (5F3.000 tons/day).
Large (if 3, 000 tons/day).
All mills
Puerto Rico, 1969-71 aver.
Snail (e3,600 tons/day).
Large (>3,600 tons/day).
All mills
All areas and all mills . . .
Number
of
mills
in
industry
27
16
43
4
5
9
20
6
26
6
10
16
94
Number
of
mills
in
sample
8
7
15
4
5
9
20
6
26
4
10
14
64
Raw sugar
production
1,000 cwt.
208
411
303
723
2,220
1,471
750
1,506
925
272
744
599
785
: Net :
. worth .
5.703
5.423
5.572
3.169
5,733
4.451
3.390
3.363
3.384
(2.947)
4.386
2 130
3.773
: Costs :
Returns
8.711
8.744
8.726
8.111
8.163
8.137
7.210
7.249
7.219
8.856
8.698
8 747
8.036
! Sugar- '.
'_ cane
Dollars
5.493
5.236
5 373
4.844
4.998
4.921
3.486
3.547
3.500
5.041
5.055
5 051
4.478
Proc- j
essing j
per cwt.
3.337
3.002
3 181
2.994
2.425
2.709
3.189
2.666
3 075
5.576
4.774
5 021
3.474
Rent and
interest
paid
(net)
of sugar,
.010.
.212
104
.352
.260
.306
.006
.001
005
.409
.152
231
.120
: Profit :
; before :
: taxes ;
raw value
(.130)
.294
068
(.079)
.480
200
.529
1.034
638
(2.170)
(1.282)
(1 555)
(.307)
Income
tax
(.027)
.108
036
(.034)
.244
105
.239
.476
292
0
0
o
.142
: Profit
: after
; taxes
(.103)
.186
032
(.045)
.237
096
.289
.557
347
(2.170)
(1.282)
O5551
(.178)
Ratio of
to net
Before :
income :
taxes
Percent
(2.27)
5.41
1 22
(2.50)
8.37
4 49
15.59
30.75
18 85
2/
(29.23)
11
(.98)
profit
worth
After
income
taxes
Percent
(1.80)
3.42
57
(1.42)
4.13
2 16
8.53
16.56
10 25
2/
(29.23)
t F
(4.72)
I/ Mi 11 size measured in terms of dai ly grinding capacity.
2/ Net worth and profit are negative amount,
Source: USDA-ASCS.
-------
The cost of equity was then estimated by two methodsthe dividend yield
method and the earnings-stock price (E/P ratio) method. Both are simpli-
fications of the more complex DCF methodology. The dividend method is:
where
k
D
P
9
cost of capital
dividend yield
stock price
growth
and the E/P method is simply
k = E/P
where
k = cost of capital
E = earnings
P = stock price
and is a further simplification of the first.
earnings as a level perpetual stream.
The latter assumes future
The after tax cost of debt capital was estimated from company data on
interest expenses and multiplied by .52 -- assuming a 48 percent tax rate.
The above values were weighted by the respective equity and debt I/ ratios
to obtain estimated average costs of capital as follows:
Dividend Yield Plus Growth Height Cost
Equity .75 .030
Debt (8% x 52%) .25 .042
Av. Cost
Earnings/Price
Equity .75 .081
Debt .25 .042
Av. Cost
Growth
.05
Wtd.
Cost
.061
.010
.071
Thus, the estimated range for the cost of capital is 7.0 to 7.1 percent.
4. Pro Forma Income Statements - Model Plants
Table II-4 contains a summary of the pro forma income, cash flow and rate
of return for 18 model cane sugar mills in the four geographic areas.
These plants are representative of individual plants but do not necessarily
It is recognized that liabilities contain non-interest bearing liabili-
ties, but its weight is believed to be an adequate approximation for the
weight of debt.
IL-6
-------
Table II-4. Estimated pre-tax and after-tax income, cash flow and rate of return for model cane sugar mills, 1973
Subcategory
I-Louisiana
(Stand alone)
Louisiana
( integrated)
II-Florida
Ill-Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
(Stand alone)
Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
(Integrated)
IV-Hawaii (Other)
V- Puerto Rico
Capacity
TPD
2,200
3,300
5,000
2,200
3,300
5,000
6,000
10,000
1,800
3,300
4,800
3,300
4,800
1,800
3,300
4,800
4,500
8,000
f I/ Prertax Income
$000
(36)
25
227
13
71
270
1,622
4,530
58
263
1,106
1,632
3,253
(41)
478
985
(326)
776
ROI 11
(4)
1
7
.5
2
5
29
27
2
5
18
18
27
(1)
7
11
(9)
15
ROS I/
(2)
1
5
.7
2
6
13
19
1
2
6
13
18
(.6)
4
5
(6)
7
After-tax In
$000
(36)
13
118
10
43
147
843
2,356
37
143
582
855
1,698
(41)
255
519
(326)
410
ROI 2/
(4)
.7
4
.4
1
3
15
14
1
3
9
9
14
(1)
4
6
(9)
8
come
ROS I/
(2)
.4
3
.5
1
3
7
10
.5
1
3
7
10
(.6)
2
3
(6)
4
Cash Flow
$000
(9)
69
223
84
157
321
1,110
3,166
183
501
1,030
1,747
2,792
109
531
920
(224)
600
Percent of investment
(1)
4
7
3
4
6
20
19
6
10
16
19
23
3
8
11
6
11
- Capacity stated in gross tons of cane per day, except Hawaii, where net tons per day are used.
21
Return on book investment
Return on sales
-------
duplicate any one plant. Table II-5 summarizes the parameters used in
developing the detailed pro forma tables. Tables II-6 through II-9
present detailed pro forma statements for each of the 18 model plants.
The assumptions which were used in calculating values are explained
below. Generally, the model plant estimates are based on the best avail-
able information concerning industry practices and procedures. While the
estimates are reliable guides, they should not be taken literally for any
given operating plant.
The parameters shown in Table II-5 are three to five year averages which
reflect the regional variations in growing seasons (operating days),
capacity utilization, the ratio of net to gross cane weight and the sugar
content of cane. The cost structures and pro forma income statements were
calculated with these parameters. Except for Hawaii, stated daily
capacities are in gross cane.
Grower-mill integration varies so greatly both within and among geographical
areas that "typical" firms do not exist. Because of the high percentage
of integrated operations in Louisiana and Hawaii (the Hilo Coast) and
because, too, pollution control impacts are likely to be most severe in
these areas, models reflecting these areas' integrated operations were
constructed. Not enough data were available to construct similar models
for Puerto Rico.
Annual Profits After Taxes - Table II-4 indicates that 15 of the 18
model mills were profitable under 1973 conditions and that all but two
had positive cash flows.
In Subcategory I - Louisiana, the smallest "stand alone" model mill (2,200
T PD) was unprofitable and had a negative cash flow. The medium-sized
model mill (3,300 TPD) showed a very small profit, while the largest
(5,000 TPD) earned a modest return on investment. These same model mills
when integrated with a cane farm were slightly more profitable in all three
size categories (the smallest integrated model produced a very small profit),
It should be noted, however, that the small and medium-sized integrated
models were only slightly above break-even and that the largest model had
only a 3 percent return on investment.
Both model mills in Subcategory II - Florida showed good returns: the
smaller mill had an after tax return of 7 percent on sales and 15 percent
on investment; the larger one returned 10 and 14 percent.
II-8
-------
Table II- 5. Parameters of operation for developing model sugar cane mills
Subcategory
Tons Cane per day
Operating days
Raw Sugar cwt/Ton
Ratio Net Cane to
Gross Cane
Utilization of capacity,
percent
Raw sugar per year,
000 cwt
ILouisiana
2,200
70
1.67
.86
»
75
166
3,300
70
1.72
.86
75
256
5,000
70
1.79
.86
75
404
II-Florida
6,000
110
2.09
1.00
82
1,150
10,000
120
2.15
1.00
82
2,064
Ill-Hawaii (Hilo Coast) IV-Hawaii (Other)
1,800
230
2.01
.50
88
733
3,300
219
2.35
.50
82
1,394
4,800
236
2.33
.50
74
1.953
1 ,800
182
2.32
.50
90
684
3,300
182
2.32
.50
90
1,255
4,800
182
2.32
.50
90
1,824
V-Puerto Rico
4,500
100
1.54
1.00
70
485
8,000
100
1.54
1.00
70
862
- Nominal capacities of all model plants except Hawaii are shown as gross tons of cane per day.
-------
Table II-6a. Pro forma income statements and financial returns for selected non-integrated model plants in
Subcategory I - Louisiana, 1973
Gross tons cane per day
Invested capital
Sales
Raw Sugar
Molasses
Total Sales
Direct expenses
Cost of cane I/
Cost of milling
£ Total direct expense
i
0 Indirect expenses
Total operating expenses
Depreciation
Interest (long term)
TOTAL COSTS
Net income before tax
Net income after tax
Cash flow
Net income before tax as
percent of invested capital
Net income after tax as
percent of invested capital
2,
($1,000)
866
1,708
195
1,903
1,296
490
1,786
123
1.909
27
3
1,939
(36)
(36)
(9)
(4)
(4)
200
(% sales)
90
10
100
68
26
94
6
100
1
*1
102
(2)
(2)
(.5)
3,300
($1,000)
1,749
2,634
302
2,936
1,943
730
2,673
177
2,850
56
5
2,911
25
13
69
1
1
(% sales)
90
10
100
66
25
91
6
97
2
<1
99
1
2
5,000
($1,000)
3, 162
4, 157
477
4,634
2,961
1,091
4,052
242
4,294
105
8
4,407
227
118
223
7
4
(% sales)
90
10
100
64
24
87
5
93
2
< 1
95
5
3
5
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to roundino. Sales based on parameters in Table II-5.
-/ Includes costs for transporting cane of $.81, $.58 and $.33 per cwt. of sugar.
-------
Table H-6b. Pro forma statements and financial returns for selected
model integrated operations, Subcategory I -- Louisiana, 1973
Gross Tons per Day 2,200 3,300 5,000
($1,000)(% sales)($1,000)(% sales)($1,000)(% sales)
Invested capital 2,405 3,569 5,262
Sales
Raw sugar 1,708 90 2,634 90 4,157 90
Molasses 195 10 302 10 477 10
Total 1,903 100 2,936 100 4,634 100
Direct expenses , ,
Cost of purchased cane-i-7 685 36 1,204 41 2,108 46
Plantation production
cost I/
Costs of milling
Total
Indirect expenses
Mill overhead
Plantation overhead
Total
Depreciation
Interest (long term)
Total costs
Net income before tax
Net income after tax "
Cash flow
Net income before tax
as percent of invested
capital
Net income after tax
as percent of invested
capital
369
490
1,544
123
111
234
74
38
1,890
13
10
84
0.5
0.4
19
26
81
7
6
12
4
2
99
1
1
4
511
730
2,445
177
81
258
114
48
2,865
71
43
157
2
1
17
25
83
6
3
9
4
2
98
2
1
5
604
1,091
3,803
242
95
328
174
59
4,364
270
147
321
5
3
13
24
82
5
2
7
4
1
94
6
3
7
' Includes transportation costs per cwt of sugar of $1.26, $.84 and $.46.
21
Assumes administration cane as a percent of total cane of 50, 40 and 30.
Note: Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. Sales based on parameters
in Table II-5.
-------
Table II-7. Pro forma income statements and financial returns for selected model plants, in Subcategory II - Florida
and Texas, 1973
Gross tons cane per day
Invested capital
Sales
Raw Sugar
Molasses
Total Sales
Direct expenses
Cost of cane J/
Cost of milling
Total direct expense
Indirect expenses
Total operating expenses
Depreciation
Interest (long term)
TOTAL COSTS
Net income before tax
Met income after tax
Cash flow
Net income before tax as
percent of invested capital
Net income after tax as
percent of invested capital
6,000
($1,000)
5,625
11,834
1,058
12,892
7, 144
2,829
9,973
868
10,841
267
162
11,270
1,622
843
1, 110
29
15
(% sales)
92
8
100
55
22
77
7
84
2
1
87
13
7
9
10,000
($1,000)
17,000
21,239
2,023
23,262
12,470
4,396
16,866
991
17,857
810 .
216
18,732
4,530
2,356
3, 166
27
14
(% sales )
91
9
100
54
19
73
4
77
3
1
81
19
10
14
Note: Percentages may not add to 100 percent due to rounding. Sales based on parameters in Table II-5.
' Includes transportation costs.
-------
Table II-8a. Pro forma income statements and financial returns for selected,
non-integrated model plants, Subcategory III - Hawaii
(Hilo Coast), 1973
Net Tons per Day
Invested capital
Sales
Sugar
Molasses
Processing fees
Total
Direct expenses
Cost of cane I/
Cost of milling
Total
Indirect expenses
Depreciation
Interest
Total costs
Net income before tax
Net income after tax
Cash flow
Net income before tax as
percent of invested
capital
Net income after tax as
percent of invested
capital
1
($1,000)
3,270
6,634
337
--
6797T
5,204
1,100
6,304
403
146
60
6,913
58
37
183
2
1
,800
(% sales)
95
5
100
74
16
90
6
2
1
99
1
.5
2.5
3
($1,000)
4,950
11,354
641
568
12,563
8,193
2,342
10,535
1,255
358
152
12,300
263
143
501
5
3
,300
(% sales)
90
5
5
100
65
19
~84
10
3
1
98
2
1
4
4,
($1,000)
6,300
15,907
898
795
17,600
11,478
2,617
14,095
1,758
448
193
16,494
1,106
582
1,030
18
9
800
(% sales)
90
5
5
100
65
15
~80
10
3
1
94
6
3
6
=J Includes transportation costs.
Note: Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. Sales based on parameters
in Table II-5.
11-13
-------
Table II-8b. Pro forma income statements and financial returns for
selected model.integrated operations, Subcategory III -
Hawaii (Hilo Coast), 1973
Net Tons per
Invested capi
Sales
Raw sugar
Molasses
Processing
Total
Day
tal
fees
($1
9
11
12
,000)
,070
,354
641
568
,563
3,300
(% sales)
90
5
5
100
($
1
1
1
4
1,000)
1,950
5,907
898
795
7,600
,800
(% sa
90
5
5
100
les)
Direct Costs !/
Plantation 4,128 33 5,783 33
Mill 2,342 19 2,500 14
Total 6,470 52 8,283 47
Indirect costs 3,206 26 4,492 26
Depreciation 892 7 1,094 6
Interest 363 3 478 3
Total costs 10,931 87 14,347 82
Net income before tax 1,632 13 3,253 18
Net income after tax 855 7 1,698 10
Cash flow 1,747 14 2,792 16
Net income before tax
as percent of invested
capital 18 27
Net income after tax
as percent of invested
capital 9 14
-' Includes transportation costs.
Note: Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. Sales based on
parameters in Table II-5.
11-14
-------
Table II-8c. Pro forma income statements and financial returns for selected
model plants, Subcategory IV , - Hawaii (other), 1973
Net Tons per Day 1,800 3,300 4,800
($1,000) (% sales) ($1,000) (% sales) ($1,000) (% sales)
Invested capital 4,250 6,650 8,650
Sales
Raw sugar 6,190 91 11,358 91 16,507 91
Molasses 595 9 1,092 9 1,587 9
Total 6,785 100 12,450 100 18,094 100
Direct Expenses
Cost of Cane I/ 5,130 76 9,412 75 13,680 76
Cost of Milling 1,081 16 1,456 12 1,860 10
Total 6,211 92 10,868 87, 15,540 86
Indirect Expense 390 6 640 5 821 5
Depreciation 150 22 276 2 401 2
Interest 75 1 188 2 347 2
Total Costs 6,826 100.6 11,972 96 17,109 95
Net income before tax (41) (.6) 478 4 985 5
Net income after tax (41) (.6) 255 2 519 3
Cash Flow 109 1.6 531 4 920 5
Net income before tax
as percent of invested
capital <0 7 11
Net income after taxes as
percent of invested
capital <0 4 6
- Includes transportation costs.
Nore: Percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. Sales based on parameters
in Table II-5.
11-15
-------
fable 11-9. Pro forma income statements and financial returns for
selected model plants in Subcategory V - Puerto Rico, 1973
Capacity - gross tons cane per
Invested capital
Sales
Raw Sugar
Molasses
Total Sales
Direct Expenses
Cost of cane I/
Cost of mill ing
Total direct expense
Indirect expenses
Total operating expenses
Depreciation
Interest (long term)
TOTAL COSTS
Net income before tax
Net income after tax
Cash flow
Net income before tax as
percent of invested capital
Net income after tax as
percent of invested capital
day 4
$1 ,000
3,460
4,991
776
5,767
3,371
2,086
5,457
490
b ,y4/
102
44
6,093
(326)
(326)
(224)
(9)
(9)
,500
% sales
87
13
TOO
58
36
94
8
102
2
1
105
(6)
(6)
(4)
8,000
$1,000
5,230
8,870
1,379
10,249
5,991
2,534
8,525
672
9,197
190
86
9,473
776
410
600
15
8
% sales
87
13
100
58
25
83
7
90
2
1
93
7
4
6
Note: Percentages may not add due to rounding. Sales based on parameters
in Table II-5.
Includes $.60/cwt of sugar for transporting cane.
11-16
-------
In Subcategory Ill-Hawaii (Hilo Coast), the stand-alone model mills were
all profitable, although the 1,800 TPD mills and 3,300 TPD mills indicated
very low returns on sales and investment. On an integrated basis, the
3,300 and 4,800 TPD model mills showed substantial profits and cash flows.
No integrated model was developed for the 1,800 TPD mill because such an
integrated operation does not exist in this size category.
The Subcategory IV-Hawaii (Other) small model mill (stand alone) operated
at a loss, but with a positive cash flow of $109,000. The medium and
large-sized model mills had modest returns on sales and investment. Since
Subcategory IV model mills meet pollution control standards and no impact
analysis was needed, no integrated models were developed for this sub-
category.
For Subcategory V-Puerto Rico, the 4,500 TPD model mill had a loss of
$326,000 and a negative cash flow of $224,000. The 8,000 TPD mill showed
a profit of $410,000 and a cash flow of $600,000. The data from which
these estimates were compiled are less reliable than those used for other
subcategories and may overstate profitability somewhat. Furthermore,
there are no reliable data to estimate the influence of integration on
the Puerto Rican model mills.
5. Invested Capital
Tables 11-10 through 11-13 present the estimated investment in capital
for the model mills. In Louisiana (Table 11-10), lower book values
reflected the age of the plants, when compared to those of other areas.
Of the depreciable assets, buildings accounted for approximately 25 per-
cent with the rest of the investment in equipment.
Table 11-11 shows that the Florida mills were larger with a proportion-
ately greater investment. These mills had a higher book value because
they were built since 1960.
Table 11-12 shows the higher land values in Hawaii where land is scarce.
Investments in the Hawaiian mills are so closely tied to the plantations
that it was not always possible to separate plantation from mill invest-
ment; however, the Hawaiian plants enjoy a relatively higher annual
throughput than other U. S. sugar mills because of their longer operat-
ing season.
For Puerto Rico, plant data was particularly difficult to find. Best
estimates appear in Table 11-13. Many of these plants were operating
below capacity, in part because of a shortage of cane.
11-17
-------
Table II-lQa. Estimated invested capital and salvage value of assets for non-integrated model plants in
Subcategory I - Louisiana, 1973
I I
1
CO
Net working capital
Land
Buildings
Equipment
Total fixed assets
Total investment
Estimated current replace-
ment, cost of fixed assets
2
Book
value
($1,000)
360
30
119
357
506
866
3 ,000 y
Small
,200 TPD
Percent
salvage
100
100
5
10
13
53
I/
Salvage
value
($1, 000)
360
30
6
36
72
456
Book
value
($1,000)
767
40
236
706
982
1,749
3,800 y
Medium
3,300 TPD
Percent
salvage
100
100
5
10
13
52
I
'I/
Salvage
value
($1,000)
767
40
12
71
123
890
Book
value
($1,000)
1,373
50
435
1,304
1,789
3, 162
4,900 2/
Large
5,000 TPD
Percent
salvage
100
100
5
10
11
50
I/
Salvage
value
($1,000)
1,373
50
22
130
202
1,575
- Capacity in gross tons cane per day.
2/
- Replacement costs estimated at $360, $300, and $245 per annual ton of sugar.
-------
Table II-10b. Estimated invested capital and salvage value for integrated model operations
in Subcategory I - Louisiana, 1973
Capacity - gross TPD
Net working capital
Land
Buildings
Equipment
Total investment
Book
value
($1,000)
520
1,130
199
557
2,406
2,200
Percent
salvage
(%)
100
100
5
10
71
Salvage
value
($1,000)
520
1,130
10
56
1,716
Book
value
($1,000)
992
1,340
321
916
3,569
3,300
Percent
salvage
(*)
100
100
5
10
68
Salvage
value
($1,000)
992
1,340
16
92
2,440
Book
value
($1,000)
1,653
1,550
525
1,534
5,262
5,000
Percent
salvage
ft)
100
100
5
10
64
Salvage
value
($1,000)
1,653
1,550
26
153
3,382
-------
Table II- 11. Estimated invested capital and salvage value of assets for model plants in
Subcateqory II - Florida and Texas, 1973
Net working capital
Land
Buildings
Equipment
Total fixed assets
Total investment
Estimated current replacement
Cost of fixed assets
Book value
($1,000)
1, 125
50
1, 100
3,350
4,500
5,625
14,400 £/
Small
6,000 TPD
Percent
salvage
100
100
5
10
10
28
\l
Salvage
value
($1,000)
1, 125
50
55
335
440
1,565
Book value
($1,000)
3,400
85
3,378
10, 137
13,600
17,000
19,600 2/
Large
10,000 TPD
Percent
salvage
100
100
5
10
9
27
i/
Salvage
value
($1,000)
3,400
85
167
1,014
1,266
4,666
I/
Capacity in gross tons cane per day.
Replacement costs estimated at $250 and $190 per annual ton of sugar.
-------
Table II-12a. Estimated invested capital and salvage value for non-integrated model plants in Subcategory Ill-
Hawaii (Hilo Coast), 1973
Capacity-net TPD
Net working capital !/
Land
Buildings
Equipment
Total investment
Estimated current
replacement cost
of fixed assets
Book
value
($1,000)
420
250
500
2,100
3,270
12,000 2/
1,800
Percent Salvage
salvage value
($1,000)
100 420
100 250
5 25
10 210
28 905
Book
value
($1,000)
750
250
750
3,200
4,950
17,000 ^/
3,300
Percent Salvage
salvage value
($1,000)
100 750
100 250
5 38
10 320
27 1,358
4,800
Book Percent
value salvage
($1,000)
1,100 100
250 100
950 5
4,000 10
6,300 29
21,000 -/
Salvage
value
($1,000)
1,100
250
48
400
1,798
I/
~ 6 Percent of sales.
2/
- Replacement costs estimated at $325, $250, and $220 per annual tons of sugar.
Source: Industry data.
-------
Table II-12b. Estimated invested capital and salvage value for non-integrated model plants in Subcategory IV-
Hawaii (Others), 1973
Capacity-net TPD
Net working capital
Land
Buildings
. Equipment
i
K Total investment
Estimated current
replacement cost
of fixed assets
1,800
Book Percent
value t^iy^rjp
($1,000)
I/ 1,000 100
250 100
500 5
2,500 10
4,250 36
11,000 2L
Salvage
v^ 1 u°
($1,000)
1,000
250
25
250
1,525
3,300
Book Percent
value salvage
($1,000)
1,900 100
250 100
800 5
3,700 10
6,650 38
15,700 11
4,sro
Salvage
value
($1,000)
1,900
250
40
370
2,560
Book Percent Salvage
value salvaae value
($1,000)
2,700
250
1,000
4,700
8,650
20,000 I/
($1,000)
100 2,700
100 250
5 50
10 470
40 3,470
15 Percent of sales.
Replacement costs estimated at $325, $250, and $220 per annual ton of sugar.
-------
Table II-12c. Estimated invested capital and salvage value for model
integrated operations in Subcategory Ill-Hawaii (Hilo Coast), 1973
Capacity - net TPD
3,300
4,800
Book
value
Percent
salvage
Salvage
value
Book
value
Percent
salvage
Salvage
value
($1,000)
Net working capital 750
Land 1,850
Buildings 1,550
Equipment 4,920
Total Investment 9,070
100
100
5
10
35
31,000)
750
1,850
78
492
3,170
(11,000)
1,100
2,650
1,900
6,300
11,950
100
100
5
10
37
($1,000)
1,100
2,650
96
630
4,476
11-23
-------
Table 11-13. Estimated invested capital and salvage value of assest for
model plants in Subcategory V-Puerto Rico, 1973
L
Book
value
Medium
1,500 TPD
Percent
salvage
($1,000)
Net working capital
Land
Building
Equipment
Total fixed assets
Total investment
Estimated current
replacement, cost
of fixed assets
751
170
839
1,700
2,709
3,460
5,000
100
100
5
10
14
33
2/
I/
Salvage
value
($1,000)
751
170
42
170
382
1,133
i
Book
value
Large
3,000 TPD
Percent
salvage
($1,000)
1,230
200
1,250
2,550
4,000
5,230
8,500
100
100
5
10
13
33
2/
IT
Salvage
value
($1,000)
1,230
200
63
255
518
1,748
Capacity in gross tons of cane per day.
2/
' Replacement costs estimated at $250 and $200 per annual ton of sugar.
11-24
-------
Salvage Value - Estimated salvage values (or the sunk investment) for
the 18 model mills are also shown in Tables 11-10 through 11-13 and
assume a complete "recovery of working capital and the book value of
land. Though book values may understate land salvage values, this
report assumed that only a recovery of book value is possible. Rates
of 5 percent of book value as the salvage rate for buildings
and 10 percent for equipment were used.
6. Cost Structure
Estimated sales and cost data for the model plants are shown in Appendix
Tables 6-9. The data were based on average sugar prices, molasses prices
and costs of cane as reported by the Department of Agriculture for 1973.
Variations in the cost patterns in the geographic areas reflected differ-
ences in the percentage recovery of raw sugar and molasses. Differences
in the cost of cane also reflected variations in sugar values resulting
from different crops and growing conditions. The prices of cane paid
to growers in Louisiana, Florida, and Puerto Rico are published in the
Sugar Reports. The cost paid to the grower represented the cost of cane
as a raw material to the mill. In Hawaii, however, the published costs
differed because of accounting procedures. The Hawaiian mills, integrated
with plantations, did not use a fixed cost of cane; therefore, in Appen-
dix Tables 8a, 8b and 8c the cost of cane may vary somewhat from actual
mill costs.
Most depreciation costs were approximately 7 percent of the book value
of depreciable assets. Interest costs were 8 percent of the long term
indebtedness.
B. Distribution of Data
Table II-4 presented the after-tax profits, return on sales and invested
capital, and the cash flows for the model plant configurations. Since
each model plant is included in Table 11-4, the summary will not be
repeated here.
11-25
-------
C. Ability to Finance New Investment
The ability of a firm to finance a new investment for pollution abatement
equipment is a function of several critical financial and economic factors.
In general terms, new capital must come from one or more of the following
sources: (1) funds borrowed from outside sources; (2) equity capital
through the sale of common or preferred stock; (3) internally generated
fundsretained earnings and the stream of funds attributed to depreci-
ation of fixed assets.
For each of the three major sources of new investment, the most critical
set of factors was the financial condition of the individual firm.
Because the financial condition for specific producers was not known,
model plant analysis provided estimates of financial strength and showed
that conditions varied by geographic location. These variations are
discussed below. It must be remembered, of course, that general economic
conditions greatly influence a firm's ability to finance new investment.
The general economic outlook of the next few years is ambiguous because
of uncertainties surrounding economic policies and the critical shortages
of many basic resources, especially energy. Rates of economic growth,
unemployment and inflation are subject only to speculative thinking.
The rate of economic growth, down since the fourth quarter of 1973, is
continually influenced by inflation and energy problems. Recovery to the
historic annual growth rate of 3.5 percent will probably not occur prior
to the last half of 1975. Unemployment rose in 1974, and also affected
growth rates and patterns. Inflation, which soared in 1974 to annual
rates above 10 percent, cannot be expected to drop below 5 to 6 percent
in the immediate future.
These conditions will strongly affect the availability and costs of
capital for pollution control. In the search for new energy sources
and new production technologies, both public and private institutions
will continue to exert a heavy demand on capital funds, more than
offsetting any decline in private investment demand resulting from
economic slowdown. This will keep upward pressure on money rates.
In addition, inflation will push interest rates higher as lenders
demand a larger inflation premium. In the next few years, capital funds
are likely to be available, but at rates approaching the historically
high levels of 1969-70 when long-term, high grade corporate bonds
yielded 9 to 10 percent. The cost of financing any new investment will
be high when compared to that of the 1950's and early 1960's.
11-26
-------
Section II-A contains a discussion of the profitability, capital struc-
ture and cost of capital for the industry and for the segments under
consideration. New financing capabilities varied by geographic region.
The cane sugar milling industry could finance new investment in Florida,
but many operators in Louisiana appeared to be in no condition to
attract new funds. Although the small Hilo Coast plants were operating
on thin margins, Hawaiian owners, in general, appeared to be in a
resonably strong financial position with low debt-equity ratios and
substantial cash flows. Under government operations in Puerto Rico,
quite different financial constraints existed, thus, the ability to
finance new investment depended in part on tax revenues as well as
industry profitability.
There are some additional factors which may influence the ability of a
particular firm to finance pollution control costs. First, government
price policy for raw sugar will affect the profitability of cane sugar
milling. Because, for instance, raw sugar prices, which will be dis-
cussed in Chapter III, cannot be controlled by the mill operators, this
factor is beyond the owners' direct control.
Second, government benefit payments to cane growers can affect mill
profitability in those instances in which the cane land and the cane .mill
are under common ownership. The profit on the total operation (growing-
milling) may be adequate to support the new investment even though the
mill operation by itself might be marginal or unprofitable.
Third, the increasing interest in cooperatives in Louisiana, where
growers have united to purchase several mills, give growers a special
stake in keeping mills operating since they are dependent on nearby mills
for the disposal of their harvested cane. A growers' cooperative,
providing cane growing is profitable, could conceivably finance any
new investment for pollution control in order to keep a mill open.
Fourth, integrated mill-refining operations may also provide more
financial strength for a new investment than would a "stand-alone" mill.
A profitable refinery, desirous of maintaining a captive source of raw
sugar, may be capable of supporting pollution control investment.
In summary, some firms in the cane sugar milling industry should be able
to finance the required new investment, while others will find such
financing either most difficult or impossible under 1973 prices. With
higher prices, new investment could be handled relatively easily by all
firms, but, as discussed in Chapter III, future price levels are most
uncertain.
11-27
-------
III. PRICING
The pricing of raw sugar, the primary product of the cane milling indus-
try is complex. First, the demand for raw sugar is derived from the
final demand for sweeteners in general. Second, raw sugar is traded
extensively throughout the world. Third, raw sugar production, trade
and prices in the United States and most countries have been highly
regulated by governments, either unilaterally or multilaterally.
Fourth, the United States, the world's largest importer, has apparently
decided to remove all production subsidies and all sugar trade regula-
tions in favor of free trade. Fifth, the world sugar economy is current-
ly extremely volatile, with prices increasing over 400 percent in recent
months. These various factors must be considered in understanding raw
sugar prices,
A. Demand
1. Consumption
Virtually all domestic sugar is consumed as human food. U. S. per capita
sugar consumption (Table III-l) has been fairly stable since the 1930's,
ranging between 90 and 100 pounds per capita. Recent per capita increases
to above 100 pounds are attributed to the Food and Drug Administration's
restrictions on the use of cyclamates. Sugar and corn sweeteners (corn
syrup and dextrose) are known as caloric sweeteners while cyclamates and
saccharine are called noncaloric sweeteners. Since cyclamate sweeteners
have been limited, the noncaloric sweetener segment has declined slightly,
representing less than five percent of total per capita consumption on a
sugar equivalent basis (Table III-l). Corn sweeteners have shown the
most significant growth since 1950, but they still represent less than
20 percent of total sweetener consumption.
About two-thirds of all sugar is consumed in industrial uses, especially
by food processing industries. Only one-fourth is purchased for personal
home use. The remainder is used in restaurant and institutional meal
preparation.
Industrial uses for sugar are found mainly in the food industries, including
beverages (Table III-2). The beverage industry is the largest user of
sugar and has made little use of corn sweeteners as a sugar substitute.
The beverage industry is also the highest user of noncaloric sweeteners.
Baking, the next largest user, has dropped its use of sugar slightly.
Confectionary and canning uses are the next largest users.
III-l
-------
Table III- 1. Total sugar consumption and per capita consumption of sweeteners
by type in the United States, 1950 to 1973
Per capita
Total
sugar
Year consumption
million shor
1950
1960
1967
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
tons
8.0
9.0
10.2
10.6
11.4
11.3
11.4
11.4
Caloric
i Defined
Corn sweeteners
I/ sugar Corn syrup
-t
100.6
97.6
97.1
99.9
102.5
102.4
102.4
102.4
_i
9.2
10.1
14.0
15.0
16.0
16.2
16.5
NA
Dextrose uer
bs - sugar
4.5
3.7
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.2
5.2
NA
Total
caloric
equivalent basis -
3.5
2.5
2.0
2.2
1.8
1.7
1.8
NA
117.8
113.9
117.7
121.9
1 25 . 2
1 25. 5
125.9
NA
Non-
caloric
2.9
2.2
6.9
6.9
6.2
5.7
5.7
NA
Tons of raw sugar equivalent, 107 tons raw sugar equals 100 tons refined
sugar.
Source: National Food Situation, Feb., 1973, USDA and subsequent issues.
III-2
-------
Table III-? Ref'-ed sugar consumption (deliveries) by use, 1950 to 1973
Year
1950 1960 1967 1969 1970 1971
1972 1973
Industrial use
Cereal and bakery products
Confectionary products
Processed foods ]_/
Dairy products
Other food users
Subtotal
Beverages
Total
Nonindustrial use
Wholesalers
Retailers
Other
Total
To tali/
.6
.7
.6
.3
.2
2.4
.8
3.2
3.0
1.2
.1
4.3
7.5
1.0
.8
.8
.4
.3
3.3
1.1
4.4
2.5
1.2
.2
3.9
8.3
M-
1.3
1.0
.8
.5
.4
4.0
1.8
5.8
2.2
1.2
.2
3.6
9.4
1.3
1.0
.9
.5
.4
4.1
2.1
6.2
2.1
1.2
.2
3.5
9.7
1.5
1.1
.9
.5
.4
4.4
2.4
6.8
2.2
1.3
.2
3.7
10.5
1.4
1.1
1.0
.6
.5
4.6
2.4
7.0
2.2
1.3
.2
3.7
10.7
1.4
1.0
1.0
.6
.5
4.5
2.4
6.9
2.1
1.3
.2
3.6
10.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
.6
.5
4.6
2.5
7.1
2.1
1.3
.2
3.6
10.7
NOTE: 107 tons of raw sugar equals 100 tons of refined sugar.
!_/ Fruits and vegetables and related products.
2J Data may vary slightly from estimated consumption due to coverage differences.
Source: National Food Situation, February, 1973, USDA, and Sugar Reports,
March 1974, USDA.
III-3
-------
2. Substitutes
As indicated above, substitutes for sugar exist. Noncaloric sweeteners
are used to meet the demands of those consumers seeking to limit sugar
intake. Some substitution of noncaloric sweeteners for sugar is assoc-
iated with relative price changes. However, for the noncaloric sweeteners,
quality considerations appear to be more important. The future of non-
caloric sweeteners is uncertain, and will depend heavily upon .technological
development relative to satisfying Federal Drug Administration clearances.
For instance cyclamates were banned by FDA in 1970 after reaching a per
capita consumption level of 1.6 pounds sugar equivalent basis (about one
percent of total sweetener consumption). Presently G. D. Searles Company
has received Federal Drug Administration clearance for an artificial product
sweetener, but due to technical limitations, it is limited to table use only.
However, if this product can be developed into a stable liquid form, it
seems probable that it would find a large market in the canning and beverage
industries. The likelihood of this development is not known, but with the
incentive of today's high sugar prices, one could conjecture that research
and development to create a liquid form would be underway.
Corn sweeteners (corn syrup and dextrose) are sugar's major competitor.
Since corn sweeteners are used almost exclusively in the industrial
markets, this substitution does not have a major effect on the house-
hold use of sugar.
Corn sweeteners represent nearly 20 percent of the total sweetener market
(about 25 percent of the industrial sweetener market) compared to about
12 percent in 1950. The consumption of corn sweeteners, which increased
from 1.2 million tons in 1960 to 2.1 million tons in 1972, is continuing.
A variety of technological factors have influenced this past and possible
future growth. Key factors include:
1. Iso-enzymes are being used to convert at least part of the
dextrose in corn syrup to levulose, a much sweeter carbo-
hydrate than dextrose (e.g., about a 140 to 150 percent
dextrose equivalent rating). Levulose can be mixed in
various ratios with other corn syrups to produce syrups
for different uses.
2. Corn syrup is now being used as a fermentation adjunct in
the brewing industry. Begun by the Schlitz Brewing
Company, this process, having improved quality control,
is expected to be used by other brewers.
3. Corn syrups are liquids and, despite viscosity problems,
especially in cold climates, the more automated processing
industries can better utilize liquid ingredients which can
be pumped.
III-4
-------
4. Some major soft drink bottlers use a portion of corn
syrups in certain diet drinks and may increase their use.
In addition to these technological factors, corn sweetener prices have
been favorable relative to sugar prices as shown in Table III-3. A
price war, beginning in December 1971, among the corn syrup producers
dropped the equivalent cost of corn syrup relative to sugar from 70
percent to 44 percent. Even with the increase of corn syrup prices
from a low of 5.78 cents to 15.23 cents per pound in New York July,
1974, the price was only 35 percent of the equivalent sugar price in
the Northeast (Table III-3), due to the rapid increase in sugar prices.
A more rapid shift has also been limited by certain legal restrictions
and user resistance. The laws requiring certain food, beverage and
confectionary products to contain a given level of sugar have limited
corn sweetener substitution. Further, the use of corn syrups requires
food manufacturing techniques and equipment changes that food processors
have been reluctant to develop.
However, within recent months, user resistance appears to be diminishing
in the face of high sugar prices, and increasing numbers of processors
are changing or seriously considering changing to liquid facilities and
the use of corn syrups. Furthermore, legal constraints on the use of
corn syrup in food preparations may be relaxed in the face of very high
sugar prices.
In addition to sugar and sweetener related factors, the growth of corn
sweeteners is also influenced by the characteristics of the wet corn
milling industry. Corn sweeteners are among more than 500 products
produced by this industry. Increases in the output of this industry
are related to.'
. Corn starches - Short-term demand is up in the paper
industry. Pulp paper prices are high, and relatively
more starch (at lower cost) is desired.
. Corn oil - This important by-product has a strong position
in vegetable oil markets and prices are now relatively high.
. Feed by-products - Livestock feed prices have increased
sharply and, consequently, so have feed by-product prices.
Although the corn refining process is physically limited in terms of its
product mix, the industry has been shifting toward corn syrups at the
expense of both starch and dextrose as shown below:
III-5
-------
Table III-3. Wholesale prices of sugar, corn syrup, and dextrose
Refined sugar
Northeast
Year
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
Last 12-
month ave.
Dextrose Corn Syrup
N.Y. N.Y.
cents per pound, dry basis
9.40
9.60
11.94
10.68
10.22
10.36
10.62
10.84
11.44
11.97
12.48
13.09
14.07
15.65
18.49
20.90
23.78
27.61
31.04
32.50
36.83
40.74
43.59
26.80
8.10
8.04
9.10
8.85
8.70
8.87
9.49
9.49
9.96
10.20
10.71
10.07
10.79
11.52
11.52
11.52
11.52
11.52
11.52
16.58
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
9.00
8.73
9.19
8.36
8.27
8.34
8.40
7.85
8.01
8.45
8.77
5.78
8.53
10.85
10.85
10.85
10.85
10.85
10.85
13.45
19.27
15.01
15.23
12.53
Dextrose
relative
to sugar
(%)
86
84
76
83
85
86
86
86
85
85
86
77
77
74
63
55
48
42
37
51
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Corn syrup
relative
to sugar
(*)
96
91
77
78
81
81
79
72
68
70
44
60
69
59
52
46
39
35
41
52
37
35
47
Source: Sugar Reports, USDA-ASCS, selected issues.
III-6
-------
Corn syrups (all types,
incl. solids)
Corn Sugar
Corn Starches (incl. dextrin)
100.0 100.0
Source: Industry sources
The cost of corn syrup production varies directly with the price of corn
as shown below:
Price of corn Cost of Corn Syrup (42 D.E.)
^Tbu]($/lb dry basis)
$1.00 .055
2.50 .095
3.00 .no
Assuming the 1969-1973 ratio of corn syrup prices to sugar prices of 63
percent, $.10 per pound corn syrup would equate to about $.16 per pound
sugar. With corn expected to be in the $2.50 to $3.00 per hundred weight
range during the next few years, the cost of manufacturing corn syrup should
remain in the neighborhood of $.095 to $.110 per pound. At this level, corn
syrup appears to be in a favorable competitive position relative to sugar
at today's prices.
All of these factors point toward a continued expansion of the corn
refining industry and the use of corn sweeteners. Since 1965, total
corn ground by the corn refining industry has increased from 204 million
bushels to an estimated 310 million bushels in 1974 (Table III-4).
Additional refining capacity is under construction or has been announced.
Although corn sweeteners will not substitute quickly for sugar, their
growth and availability will probably dampen domestic sugar prices.
3. Elasticity Estimates
Extensive elasticity estimates are not available for sugar, particularly
on a market segment basis. George and King I/ have estimated the price
elasticity of all sugar at - .24 and corn syrup at -.44. These values
indicate demand to be price inelastic, although corn syrup is relatively
more elastic as suggested above in the discussion of substitutes. Like-
wise income has little influence with an income elasticity of .03 for
sugar and .174 for corn syrup.
George, P.S. and G. A. King, Consumer Demand for Food Commodities
in the U.S. with Projections for 1980, Giannini Foundation, Monograph
No. 26, Univ. of Calif., Berkeley, 1971.
III-7
-------
Table Hl-4. Production in the corn refining industry
Total -, , Percent Annual
Year Grind Change
(mil. bu.)
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
204
205
213
221
226
229
242
250
280 y
310
--
0.5
3.9
3.8
2.3
1.3
5.7
3.3
6.9
10.7
- USDA/ERS estimates
21
DPRA and industry estimates
III-8
-------
For sugar at the household level, Bates and Schmitzl/ estimate elastici-
ties of -.16 (price) and of .15 (income). These values are comparable
to the price and income elasticities for all sugar and corn syrup cited
above.
The estimated cross elasticities are relatively high (in relation to
other food products). The estimated cross elasticity of sugar (price)
with corn syrup (consumption) is .05 and the cross elasticity of corn
syrup (price) with sugar (consumption) is .13. _/ As a point of refer-
ence the cross elasticity of beef with pork is .083 and pork with beef
is .076.
These estimates are based on long term time series data and cross section
data for 1955-56 and 1965-66. Generally, these periods do not contain
the current high price levels. Whether or not these relationships
hold for high prices is not known nor is it known whether structural
changes have occurred, particularly with reference to corn sweeteners
via the development of high levulose corn syruo. Furthermore, estimates
are not available to identify differences among market segments.
Since household consumption accounts for only about one-quarter of
total sugar consumption, one can speculate that the industrial segment
too is relatively inelastic with respect to price and income. Because
corn syrups are used primarily industrially, these estimates are an
approximation of the overall industrial market situation. Although some
buyer resistance may occur at the high price levels, it seems probable
that sugar and corn syruo are still price and income inelastic and that
little consumption change will occur overall in response to changes in
these factors. This situation explains in part the current high prices,
in that a small change in quantity creates a large price change.
The cross elasticity of sugar and corn syrup suggests the possibility
of increased syrup use relative to sugar if sugar prices remain high.
Due to the limits of existing corn refining capacity and the time re-
quired to expand capacity, the substitution will be limited. However,
conversion of existing capacity to high levulose syrups could increase
the industry's total sweetening production capability. An increase in
corn refining capacity, a greater user acceptance of a "sweeter" product,
and some increase in sugar quantity could serve to reduce sugar prices
quickly.
~~ Bates, Thomas H. and Andrew Schmitz, A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis of
the World Sugar Economy, Giannini Foundation Monograph No. 24, University
of California, Berkely, 1969.
2/
' George and King, op. cit.
III-9
-------
B. Supply
1. Supplies
U.S. Sugar production has grown from a 1950 level of 8.2 million short
tons to current levels of 11.5 to 12.0 million short tons (Table III-5).
Since 1950, imports have consistently represented about 45 to 46 percent
of this supply. Domestic production is currently about 55 percent beet
sugar and 45 percent cane sugar. This compares to a 1950 situation when
beet sugar represented less than 40 percent of total production. Cane
sugar production has been relatively stable over the past twenty years
ranging from 2,4 to S.I million tons. These data show that the growth
in the U.S. domestic supply is attributable to increased beet sugar
production and imports. Currently, domestically-produced cane sugar
contributes only one-quarter of the U.S. sugar supply. Thus, as shown,
the world sugar economy is important to the United States.
2. Government Sugar Policy
The U.S. sugar industry has been protected and regulated by the Federal
Government since 1789. A quota system of control was initiated in 1934
and has been amended and extended periodically since then. The current
legislation governing the industry is the Sugar Act of 1948 as amended
in 1971. This legislation became effective January 1, 1972 and extended
the Act through December 31, 1974.
The principal provisions of the U. S. sugar program were: I/
1. the yearly establishment by the Secretary of Agriculture
of the total annual U. S. consumption requirements;
2. the allocation of total consumption requirements among
domestic cane and beet producing areas and foreign countries;
3. the establishment of import quotas to control shipments by
foreign countries of both raw and refined sugar to the
United States;
4. the establishment of limits on the quantities of direct-
consumption of sugar from Hawaii and Puerto Rico shipped to
the continental United States;
5. conditional payments made to domestic producers (including
producers in Puerto Rico) for abiding by the terms of the
Sugar Act;
6. a tax of $0.50 per hundredweight of raw sugar on all sugar
used in the United States;
7. a tariff of $0,625 per hundredweight of raw sugar; and
8. the provisions for the "fair division of the benefits" of
the sugar program.
Walter, J. and Peter M. Emerson, Initial Analysis of the Economic Impact
of Water Pollution Control Costs Upon the U. S. Cane Sugar Industry,
Economic Research Service, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture, Washington,
D. C. March, 1973, present a good summary of the provisions of the
Sugar Act.
111-10
-------
Tab! Til-* United States sugar supply, 1950 to 1973 (in raw sugar) ]-''
Year
195C
1960
1967
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
Beet
1.7
2.2
2.8
3.2
3.6
3.4
3.5
3.4
Cane
2.7
2.4
3.1
2.7
2.8
2.5
2.9
2.8
Total
4.4
4.6
5.9
5.9
6.4
5.9
6.4
6.2
Imports
3.8
5.0
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.4
5.4
5.3
Total
supply
8.2
9.6
10.3
10.7
11.6
11.3
11.8
11.5
107 tons raw sugar equals 100 tons refined sugar.
Source: National Food Situation, February, 1973 and Sugar Reports * January,
1974, USDA.
III-ll
-------
The sugar program has greatly influenced the I). S. sugar industry, par-
ticularly with respect to maintaining some level of domestic production
through higher prices and subsidy payments. Sugar prices in the United
States generally have been much higher than those prevailing in the
world market (Table III-6). During the past two decades, world prices
have exceeded the U. S. price only in 1950-51, 1957, 1963-64 and 1973-74.
The first six months of 1974 witnessed a world price well above the U. S.
price. Prices in July, 1974, in fact were about three times those of one
year earlier. Imported sugar has been sold at the same level as domestically
produced sugar.
High U. S. sugar prices have made this country a very desirable market
for sugar exporting nations, especially those which did not have other
preferred markets such as the United Kingdom or France. The value of
the U. S. sugar market to an exporting nation was also affected by the
importance of sugar exports to that nation's economy and the share of its
sugar exports to the United States. In addition to being a dominant
factor in determining domestic sugar prices, the U.S. sugar program, at
times, influenced world sugar prices.
When domestic prices have increased, the Secretary of Agriculture has
increased the U.S. sugar consumption requirement; this increases supply
and lowers domestic prices. In 1950, the increase was from 7.5 million
to 8.7 million tons; in 1957, from 8.8 million to 9.3 million tons; in
1963, from 9.8 million to 10.4 million tons; and in 1972 from 11.2 million
to 11.8 million tons. More recently, in October, 1973, the requirements
for 1974 were raised from 11.8 million tons to 12.5 million tons. In each
earlier case, the increased supply of sugar for U.S. consumers moderated
the price rise here but, by decreasing supplies available for other
importing countries, caused world prices to rise even further than
expected. Since the United States is by far the world's largest importer
of sugartaking 20 to 25 percent of the total world tradeunexpected
changes in the volume of this country's imports have had an appreciable
effect on all other sugar importing and exporting countries.
Current high sugar prices and various other factors apparently led to
the expiration of the Sugar Act as of December 31, 1974. Excepting under
provisions of the U.S. Tariff Schedules, which authorize the President
to set import quotas and tariff rates (which action was announced on
18 November, 1974, for 1975), the U. S. sugar economy is under a free
trade situation. Whether or not new legislation will be enacted and
what its form may be is unknown. Congress will probably not act until
sugar prices significantly decline from present high levels. With
other farm programs tending towards minimum price floors below normal
market price levels, a similar sugar program may emerge. New legislation
would probably also provide for an import quota system. However, vocal
and influential consumer interests may prevent prices from remaining much
above world prices.
III-12
-------
Table 111-6. Raw sugar prices in New York and World, 1948-1974
Year
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Last
12-
month
aver.
Raw sugar
New York
(N. Y.
delivery)
5.54
5.81
5.93
6.06
6.26
6.29
6.09
5.95
6.09
6.24
6.27
6.24
6.30
6.30
6.45
8.18
6.90
6.75
6.99
7.28
7.52
7.75
8.07
8.52
9.09
10.29
12.63
17.09
18.11
19.25
23.05
26.30
28.35
32.60
33.71
38.83
22.70
World
price
(N. Y.
delivery)
ip per
5.13
5.03
5.82
6.66
5.08
4.27
4.14
4.19
4.47
6.10
4.36
3.86
4.09
3.85
3.87
9.41
6.79
3.07
2.81
2.95
2.96
4.37
4.88
5.65
8.53
11.99
16.87
22.84
22.86
23.40
25.40
25.40
27.06
33.08
35.95
41.29
24.93
Difference
,
pound
.41
.70
.11
-.60
1.18
2.02
1.95
1.76
1.62
.14
1.19
2.38
2.21
2.45
2.58
-1.21
.11
3.68
4.18
4.33
4.56
3.38
3.19
2.87
.55
.70
-4.24
-5.75
-4.75
-4.15
-2.35
.90
1.29
-.48
-2.24
-2.46
-2.23
World
Caribbean
Current
4.23
4.16
4.98
5.67
4.17
3.41
3.26
3.24
3.48
5.16
3.50
2.97
3.14
2.91
2.98
8.50
5.87
2.12
1.86
1.99
1.98
3.37
3.75
4.52
7.43
9.61
15.32
21.18
21.27
21.77
23.65
23.67
25.40
31.45
34.35
39.63
22.31
Price
Basis
Deflated I/
5.29
5.23
6.21
6.52
4.71
3.81
3.61
3.56
3.69
5.28
3.50
2.92
3.04
2.78
2.82
7.93
5.40
1.91
1.63
1.69
1.62
2.63
2.77
3.19
5.09
6.24
9.36
13.01
13.00
13.01
14.14
14.15
14.77
18.29
19.98
23.05
NA
I/
Deflated by GNP implicit deflator (1958 = 100),
Source: USDA, ASCS, Sugar Reports.
111-13
-------
C. World Sugar Economy
Trade in world sugar has been an important factor in determining U.S.
sugar supply under past sugar policies; it may become even more important
under free trade.
1. Trade
World sugar trade is highly regulated, with approximately 60 percent
moving under preferential and restricted market agreements. The three
most important of these agreements in recent years were: (1) imports
of sugar into the United States (the largest sugar importer) under the
U.S. Sugar Act, (2) imports into the United Kingdom under the Commonwealth
Sugar Agreement, and (3) Cuban exports to the USSR and other centrally
planned countries. The world free-market sugar trade involves only
about 40 percent of total trade. A large part of this market falls
under the International Sugar Agreement which was negotiated in 1968 and
reinstituted in 1973. The provisions of this agreement are designed to
insure that appropriate supplies are available to the free market in
order to maintain its stability. Since the United States is not a party
to this agreement, U. S. sugar imports have not been subject to its
provisions.
Important changes in these international agreements are expected. Both
the Commonwealth Sugar Agreement and the U. S. Sugar Act expired at the
end of 1974. With the realignment of the Common Market by the joining
of the United Kingdom, Denmark, Norway, and Ireland, the EEC will change
from a net exporter to a net importer. Even with the expiration of the
Commonwealth Sugar Agreement, the developing countries will probably
maintain their share of the United Kingdom market. However, with the
reduction of the raw sugar requirements of the British refining industry,
Australia is expected to gradually withdraw from this market under an
agreement between the two countries.
In addition to major agreements regulations, further sugar trade control
is exercised by most sugar producing countries. Tariffs are generally
imposed by each country on its imports even though the country may not
be self-sufficient in sugar production. Countries usually levy taxes
on their sugar exports. Such domestic policies partially protect the
self-sufficiency of the sugar industries. These policies are reflected
in trade practices of countries which are the principal suppliers to
the United States.
111-14
-------
World sugar exports increased from an average of 19.2 million metric tons
during 1965-o? to 21.5 million in 1971. However, in 1972 exports de-
creased to 21.2 million metric tons (Table 111-7). This decrease can be
attributed to the harvesting of two successive short world crops, and the
rise in consumption in exporting countries. The decline in world exports
rf/as partly offset by increases in exports from the European countries
orought about by the good beet harvest in 1971-72 and by the exports of
Brazil which almost doubled in 1972 from 1971.
World sugar imports amounted to 20.7 million metric tons in 1971 and 20.6
million in 1972. I/ This represented an increase from an average of 18.6
million tons during 1965-69. The slight decline from 1971 to 1972 reflected a
decrease in imports to the East European countries because of their good
1971-72 harvest and also because of short supplies in the USSR and Cuba.
Except for Japan, imports decreased for most Asian countries. Trade between
major importers and exporters accounts for more than three-fourths of world
exports as shown in Table III-7.
The major trading countries and regions are shown in Table III-8. As
shown, twelve (12) exporting countries represent about 90 percent of total
exports. Cuba is by far the largest exporter, Australia, Brazil, the
Philippines, the USSR and the West Indies constitute a second group. Of
these exporting countries, the Philippines is the major exporter to the
United States.
The United States is the largest importer, representing over one-fifth
of total trade, and the USSR is the second largest importer, depending
almost solely on exports from Cuba. This points up the uncertainty
involved in speculations about the future. Institutional actions involving
the United States, the USSR and Cuba could easily restructure world trade
patterns and could influence world prices significantly.
2. Consumption
The consumption of sugar has more than doubled during the postwar period.
Comparing the three groups of countries, developed, developing and
centrally planned, the centrally planned countries have the largest
overall growth in consumption while the developed countries have the
lowest (Figure III-l). Overall, sugar consumption has increased at a
remarkably stable rate.
Although current consumption data are not available,, apparently consumotion
in the developing countries increased at a more rapic rate during 1973 and
1974 than tne historical trend.
Reporting and accounting methods result in some slight imbalance
HpTWPPn tnt.al imnnrt<; anrl tntal PYnnrtc
between total imports and total exports.
111-15
-------
Table III-7. World sugar trade, 1971-1972
(millions of metric tons)
World
Developed Countries
North America
Canada
United States
Western Europe
Oceana
Australia
New Zealand
Others
Israel
Japan
South Africa
Centrally Planned
China, Mainland
Eastern Europe
U.S.S.R.
Developing Countries
Africa
Latin America
Brazil
Cuba
Mexico
Dominican Republic
Asia, Philippines
NOTE: Reporting methods
1971
20.7
12.7
5.8
.9
4.8
4.2
.2
.2
2.5
.1
2.4
3.4
.5
1.4
1.5
4.7
1.7
.3
3.1
Imports
1972
20.6
13.0
5.7
.9
4.8
4.3
.2
2
2.9
.1
2.8
3.9
.8
.1
1.9
3.8
1.6
.3
1.9
result in some imbalance between
Exports
1971
21.5
4.9
-
2.0
2.1
1.8
.8
.8
2.2
.1
.7
1.4
14.3
1.3
10.5
1.2
5.5
(.5
1.0
2.5
total imports
197?
21.2
6.5
-
2.7
2.6
2.3
1.2
1.2
.9
-
.8
.06
13.3
1.3
10.3
2.1
4.1
.5
1.1
1.7
and exports
Source: Foreign Agriculture Circular, U.S.D.A., Foreign Agriculture Service.
111-16
-------
Table III-8. Sugar: 1970 Trade Between Major Importers and Exporters
(1,000 short tons, raw value)
Exporters/ Importers
Austral ia
Brazil
China (Taiwan)
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Mauritius
Mexico
Peru
Phil ippines
South Africa
U.S.S.R.
West Indies
Total
' Includes Denmark,
China
(main-
Canada land)
326
11
0
72
0
183
0
0
0
235
0
34
861
Ireland
Source: ISO Statistical
0
0
0
585
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
585
, Norway, and
Bulletin, Febi
EC
0
63
0'
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
69
United
<*uary, 1
4 EC '
en-
trants
478
0
0
0
0
477
0
0
0
37
119
801
1,912
Kingdom. All
972.
Japan
645
175
138
1,346
86
0
0
0
0
407
0
0
2,797
exports
U.S.S.R.
0
0
0
3,310
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,310
shown were to
United
States
212
669
86
0
728
19
674
444
1,299
79
0
221
4,431
the United
Other
149
327
246
2,295
60
0
0
0
0
3
1,553
2
4,635
Kingdom.
Total
1,810
1,245
470
7,613
874
679
674
444
1,299
761
1,673
1,058
18,600
-------
Mill ions
Metric tons
Millions
Metric Tons
oo
100 '
90 '
80 '
70 '
60 '
50 '
40 '
30 '
20
10 '
100
- 90
- 80
75.9 - World
- 70
- 60
- 50
- 40
30.1-Developed countries
30
25.2-Developing countries
20.5-Centrally planned
20 countries
10
0
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972
Figure III-l. Centrifugal sugar consumption in the world, 1949-1972
Source: Various publications, Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome.
-------
The worldwide demand for sugar is inelastic. Because of this character-
istic, scarcity due to short crops or shipping disruptions causes large
price increases, while surpluses drive prices down.
Sugar demonstrates a high income elasticity except in the developed areas
of Northern Europe, North America and Oceania where income elasticity
approaches zero. The high income elasticities are illustrated in Figure
III-2.
3. Stocks
Stocks of sugar have varied widely as shown in Figure III-3. Since 1970
stocks fell steadily from 21 million metric tons to just under 16
million tons in 1973. Although this level was higher than the 10 million
ton level of the 1950's and during the Cuban shortfall of 1963 and 1964,
stocks as a percent of production were down significantly. Historically,
stocks have been 28 to 31 percent of production. In 1963 and 1964, stocks
fell to about 20 percent of production, as they did again in 1973, although
in absolute terms, 1973 stocks were higher. Stocks in 1974 were at an
all-time low of 19 percent. This reflected the condition in which demand
exceeded supply and relative stock levels were being worked down.
4. Production
Sugar production grew steadily (Figure III-4) during the past two
decades, reaching an estimated 83 million metric tons in 1974. This
represents a long-term average growth of 2 million metric tons per year.
Production dipped to about 50 million metric tons during the short Cuban
crop of 1963. This was followed by a rapid rise in production to 65.5
million metric tons in 1965. Following a decline in 1966, production grew
steadily until 1970. From 1970 through 1972, production remained constant.
In 1973 and 1974, large production increases occurred, with each year
setting new record levels.
The largest single producer of sugar (essentially beet) is the USSR. Cuba
is usually the largest producer of centrifugal cane sugar. India
actually produces more sugar cane, but over one-half of its cane is
processed as farm-made sugar. In regional terms, Europe is the largest
producing region, followed by North America. These two industrialized
areas have the bulk of the world's beet sugar production. Cane sugar is
produced primarily in South America, Africa and Asia (Table III-9).
Cane sugar represented 63 percent of total sugar production while beet
sugar accounted for 37 percent in 1973. This represents an increase in
cane sugar's share from 59 percent in 1972 and returns cane's dominance to
the mid-1950's level (Table 111-10).
111-19
-------
Per capita consumption
(Kgs/year)
50.0
of centrifugal sugar
37.5
25.0
12.5
12
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
North America
EEC
Other Western Europe
Oceania
Other developed market economies
Northwestern Africa
Western Africa
Central Africa
Eastern Africa
Central America
Carribbean
South America
Near Eastern Africa
Near Eastern Asia
South Asia
East and Southeast Asia
Asian centrally planned countries
U.S.S.R. and western Europe
820
1220
1620
2020
2420
2820
Total per capita private consumption expenditure (U.S. dollars/year)
Figure III-2. Per capita consumption and private consumption expenditures for centrifugal sugar, 1965
Source: Agricultural Commodity Projections, 1970-1980, FAO, Vol. 11, Rome 1971.
-------
Million
Metric tons
Percent
20
World sugar stocks
(million metric tons)
World sugar stocks as a
percent of world production
5
1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973
Year
Figure III-3. World sugar stocks and ratio to world production, 1953-1973
Source: State of Food and Agriculture. FAO, Rome.
-------
Mil 1
Metric
ion
tons
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Mil 1 ion
Metric Tons
_L
_L
120
110
-100
- 90
-80
-70
- 60
-50
- 40
- 30
- 20
- 10
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974
Year-
Figure III-4. World production of sugar, 1950-1974
Source: Various publications, Food and Agricultural organizations, Rome
and FAS, U.S.D.A., Washington, D.C.
0
111-22
-------
Table III-9. World sugar production by region, 1964 to 1973
Crop year
ending
1964-1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
North
America
17.1
17.5
21.3
18.9
17.4
19.5
South
America
- Mi
Europe
Africa
8.4 25.4 4.3
8.8
9.3
10.0
10.6
11.5
27.0
26.1
25.8
26.7
26.5
4.9
5.0
4.9
5.6
6.0
Asia
11.0
12.9
14.4
14.9
14.0
14.9
Oceania
2.7
3.5
2.8
3.2
3.5
3.6
Total
68.9
74.6
78.9
77.7
77.8
82.0
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S.D.A.
111-23
-------
Table 111-10 . World sugar production by type of sugar, 1956 to 1973
Year
1956
I960
1964
1968
1972
1973
Cane
60.2
56.4
54.6
55.4
59.4
63.3
Sugar
Beet
,
39.8
43.6
45.4
44.6
40.6
36.7
Total
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Source: Foreign Agricultural Service, U.S.D.A.
111-24
-------
5. Processing Capacity
Since 1905,-and although marked short-term deviations occurred, the
long-term growth rate in production o^ all sugar has been 2.0 million
metric tons per year. Following the short crop of 1963, production
increased 7.6 million metric tons for each of the next two years and then
declined to the long-term average (Figure III-4). More recently, 1972
through 1974, production increased at an annual rate of 5.5 million metric
tons.
This pattern suggests that in the short run the industry can expand
production rapidly, but such increases are probably made possible by
improved utilization of fixed plant capacity.
Industry analysts suggest that the 1974 world sugar processing (milling
and slicing) capacity is 90.7 million metric tons. An estimated 2.3
million short tons of additional capacity is reported to be under
construction and coming on stream in 1975 and 1976.
The above estimates are for rated capacities. Utilization of this capacity
typically is 10 to 15 percent less, depending on weather, season, sugar
content, breakdowns and related factors. For instance, 1974 production
was estimated at 83 million metric tons, indicating a 91.5 percent
utilization.
Present capital costs for sugar processing facilities are large, ranging
from $400 to $500 per annual ton of sugar for beet sugar and $200 to $300
for cane sugar.
6. Cost of Production
Sugar milling production costs vary widely throughout the world. Generally,
sugar cane production costs in the tropical countries are much lower
than sugar beet production costs in the temperate countries. An approxi-
mate indication of the magnitude of these differences is shown in Table
III-ll. Although sugar content varies from country to country and year
to year, these historical data indicate that tropical cane producers have
a cost of about $.02 to $.04 per pound of raw sugar. This compared to
$.06 to $.07 per pound of raw beet sugar.
Processing costs also vary widely depending on labor rates and related
factors. The accepted rule of thumb figure for sugar cane processing costs
is $.02 per pound raw sugar. I/
When processing costs are added to growing costs, a raw cane sugar cost
of $.04 to $.06 per pound is obtained. Allowing for freight to a Caribbean
basing point, a $.06 per pound cost appeared reasonable for all efficient
and low-cost producers during the recent past. 2/
- House of Representatives, Agricultural Trade and the Proposed Round
of Multilateral Negotiations, Annex IX Sugar Trade Study, U. S
Printing Office, April, 1973.
2/
- A similar conclusion is reoorted in the above reference.
111-25
-------
Table III-ll.
Producer orices of sugar cane and sugar beets
for selected countries
Year
Countries
Sugar cane
Austral ia
Costa Rica
India
Kenya
Mauritius
Mexico
Peru
Puerto Rico
United States
Sugar beets
Australia
Belgium
Denmark
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States
Source: Production
1967
4.05
3.77
4.46
2.68
2.78
1.91
2.28
5.00
5.28
4.78
2.28
4.23
4.88
6.18
5.52
5.52
6.82
5.52
5.52
Handbook
1968
4.23
3.69
4.46
2.87
2.73
1.91
2.23
4.23
5.23
ft, / Y\f\\ i vi
(£/ uoun
4.81
2.28
4.55,
5.18
5.52
5.20
5.20
6.82
5.20
5.52
1969
i /pound raw sugar
4.78
3.73
4.46
2.87
2.87
1.91
2.14
4.19
5.60
ia rdwsuga-r equival
5.88
2.28
5.20
5.20
6.18
5.85
5.52
6.18
5.52
5.20
1972, Food and Agricultural
1970
5.00
3.82
4.46
2.87
2.96
1.91
2.37
3.91
5.87
5.56
2.60
5.52
5.52
5.52
5.85
5.85
5.18
5.85
6.18
Organization,
1971
5.23
3.96
--
2.87
3.55
3.18
2.37
--
6.14
6:30
6.18
6.50
6.50
7.15
6.82
6.82
6.50
6.18
Rome
111-26
-------
This differentia] becomes very important when one considers the possible
relaxation of trade agreements and import quotas. Under free trade,
countries with e comparative advantage would compete very favorably with
high cost producers. The high cost producers would be eventually forced
to sell below cost. Probably in the short and intermediate run their
production would be available, but as perennial cane plantings reach old
age and fixed production and processing assets wear out, this production
would disappear.
Estimated U. S. sugar costs demonstrate the high cost position of U.S.
sugar cane producers. As shown in Table 111-12, U. S. costs ranged
from $.047 per pound on the Hilo Coast up to $.062 cents in Louisiana
and $.098 cents per pound in Puerto Rico. Allowing $.02 for cane pro-
cessing, U.S. costs were $.07 to $.08 cents per pound. When a $.50 per
hundred pounds cost for handling, insurance and freight from the Caribbean
were added to the $.06 per pound world cost, the U.S. producer still had
higher costs.
Beet sugar prices in the United States are competitive with those of other
world producing areas. Sugar beets are a higher cost source of sugar than
sugar cane regardless of location.
7. Prices
As shown in Table III-6, world cane sugar prices have varied greatly both
in current and real dollars. As recently as 1966, 1967 and 1968, current
world prices were on the order of $.02 per pound. Since then they have
steadily increased and during late 1973 and 1974, the world price sky-
rocketed to an October, 1974 value of nearly $.40 per pound. The reasons
were no doubt numerous, but the primary factors included rising per capita
incomes in the developing countries during recent years, the rapid con-
sumption increases in response to those rising incomes without a cor-
responding increase in production, beet crop failures in the USSR for
three consecutive years beginning in 1971, crop damage in the Philippines
and Cuba, and price inelasticity.
Historically, world sugar production and prices have exhibited a 6 to 9
year cycle, with simultaneous production troughs and price peaks. In
recent years, price peaks have occurred in 1957 and 1963.
111-27
-------
Table 111-12. Estimated sugar cane production costs by region, 1973
Hawai i
Item
Direct Costs
Labor
Supplies and services
Subtotal
Indirect Costs
Administrative
Taxes and insurance
Subtotal
Depreciation
Interest
Total Costs
Louisiana
2.21
2.28
4.49
.37
.34
.71
.57
.42
6.19
Florida
Hilo Coast
-- $/hundredweight of
1.94
1.91
3.85
.29
.36
.65
.33
.39
5.22
1.90
1 .89
3.79
.47
.21
.68
.19
I/
4.66
Other
raw sugar --
2.57
1.57
4.14
.38
.25
.63
.28
I/
5.05
Puerto Rico
4.17
3.07
7.24
.85
.90
1.75
.45
.32
9.76
Hawaiian plantations show little or no long-term debt.
111-28
-------
Such cyclical patterns are due largely to the large amounts of capital
required and to the biological nature of sugar cane. The production
from a single planting of cane typically occurs over a period of 2 to
10 years. Furthermore, new plantings typically require a 15 to 24
month growth period prior to the harvesting; hence, new plantings may
not be reflected in production levels for several years.
If one considered only the biological nature of sugar cane, one would
expect a shorter cycle. However, producers do not immediately respond
to price changes, waiting for a clear indication of one or two years
of prices before responding with new plantings and plant construction.
This psychological factor creates a further lag, thus the 6 to 9 year
cycle.
As shown in Figure III-5, prices increased in 1969 and 1970 as expected
with the cycle; however, since the prices did not decline, they reflected
the emerging tight supply situation and rising consumption.
The price-quantity relationship (Figure III-5) shows interesting relation-
ships reflecting the recent changes in supply-demand balance. At the
outset, the relationships shown should not be taken as exhibiting either
a supply or demand function but rather a mixture of both. The scatter
diagram appears to group into two areas, one, a negative slope, for the
period 1949 through 1970, and the other, a positive slope for 1971
through 1974. The first period is typical of many agricultural commodi-
ties whose demand is fairly constant and whose supply varies due to
weather and related impacts. However, the latter period shows a distinct
change. One would conjecture that in the early period price varied in-
versely with supply and that more recently price varied directly with
demand as consumption and stocks increased relative to historical
patterns.
The relationship of prices to the stock-production ratio is shown in
Figure III-6. This relationship does not follow the distinct time trend
shown in Figure III-3 but does indicate that prices increase significant-
ly as this ratio declines. The level of stocks appears to be an indicator
of possible price changes.
The reasons for this relationship are not fully clear, but, as with other
agricultural commodities, there appears to be some normal level of stocks
(about 25 percent), representing a neutral position between buyers and
sellers. If stocks fall below this level, prices increase quite rapidly.
As stocks exceed this level, prices remain relatively constant. The
reduction of stock levels suggests the tight supply situation resulting
from the more rapidly increasing demand relative to the normal supply
growth .
111-29
-------
snts per pound
Cents per pound
17.0 '
16.0
8.0^
7.0-
6.0-
5.0-
4.0-
3.0-
2.0-
i.o-
0.0
2
74E
63
51
6 k
1*9 48 57
» - .72
52
53
55 60 .71
59 * 62 70
* "61 .69 *
65
' I 1 1 |
0 30 40 50 60 70 80 9
17.0
16.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
' 5.0
4.0
- 3.0
- 2.0
- 1.0
0.0
0
Million metric tons production
Figure III-5. World price-quantity relationship for sugar, 1949-1974 (1958 dollars)
111-30
-------
Cents per pound
Cents per pound
17.0 '
16.0 '
8.0 "
7.0 -
6.0 -
5.0 -
4.0 '
3.0 '
2.0 -
i.o -
n n
.-E
6 3
'
7 3
,64 57
.72
.52
56 53
.
58. ,55
£ ;: :°« :"
.65
.67 68-66
17.0
16.0
^
8.0
7.0
- 6.0
5.0
4.0
- 3.0
2.0
i.o
n n
18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Percent stocks of production
Figure III-6. World price - stock to production ratio, 1952-1974.
111-31
-------
D. Outlook for Prices
The recent price characteristics of sugar make price projections
tentative. The steep rise in world sugar prices during the 1973-74
period argues a delicate balance between supply and demand. Unfortun-
ately, the market's response to eventual increased supplies can only
be conjectured; how rapidly and to what level prices will fall must
remain subjects for speculation.
Long-term price projections can employ two assumptions, however.
First, even though the sugar trade is controlled in much of the world,
sugar prices in the long run will tend to equal the overall economic
costs of production and distribution plus return on investment (i.e.,
opportunity costs of production). Secondly, sugar prices cannot be less
than the full cost of production, for in such a case, investors with
limited funds, will soon seek alternative and profitable investments.
Even the estimation of a long-run cost is difficult, however, because
wage rates appear to be increasing at a relatively rapid rate in many
areas. Furthermore, world-wide sugar cane productivity increases slow-
ly at an annual rate of about one percent (Table 111-13).
Allowing for real cost increases and a relatively low productivity gain,
long-run costs in 1973 dollars could be in the order of $.08 to $.10
per pound of sugar in the U. S. (Some industry sources have suggested
a figure of $.15 per pound.) With costs at that level, prices are not
likely to fall to their former lows of the late 1960's.
When this new equilibrium level is to be reached is not at all clear.
FAO projects a world consumption of 93.2 million metric tons by 1980.
This represents a growth of 38.7 million metric tons over the 1964-66
average of 54.5 million metric tons. 17 More recent projections (un-
published) circulating among industry and government analysts place
demand for 1980, closer to 100 million metric tons. This latter
estimate presumes a continued growth of per capita income in the develop-
ing countries. With the widespread economic pressures attributable to
oil and food, this assumption is tenuous. If such pressures depress
long-run demand, the price equilibrium will be realized in a corres-
pondingly shorter time.
I/
Agricultural Commodity Projections, 1970-80, Vol. 1, Food and
Agricultural Organization, Rome, 1971.
111-32
-------
Table 111-13. Yield of sugar cane for selected areas and the world
in kilograms per hectare.
Area
World
Africa
Central America
South America
Asia
North America
Oceania
Source: Production
1961-65
49,227
62,022
52,539
48,850
44,885
88,765
73,331
Yearbook,
1970
54,477
65,335
60,538
51,832
49,499
92,127
80,016
1972, Vol. 26,
1971
53,275
66,777
57,116
52,337
48,205
83,609
83,311
1972
53,469
68 ,'5 11
57,736
52,600
47,798
92,563
78,359
Food and Agricultural
Organization, Rome, 1973.
111-33
-------
Clearly, existing capacity plus new construction would not be sufficient
to meet a 1980 consumption level of about 100 million metric tons. Ad-
justing for effective utilization rates, total 1980 rated capacity would
need to be about 111 million metric tons, a 22 percent (20 million metric
tons) increase over current capacity, excluding current construction of
2.3 million metric tons. Even a more moderate consumption level of 95
million metric tons, about 15 million metric tons of new capacity would
be required.
Although the high cost of new sugar cane plantings and cane mills
suggests a relatively inelastic supply function, it would appear that
under prospects of profits, many cf the developing countries will expand
capacity as a means of generating foreign exchange. Foreign exchange
earnings from sugar exports in many countries are very important, as
shown in Table 111-14.
All in all, if per capita incomes grow at recent per annum rates, it is
unlikely that the new price equilibrium will be reached until after
1980. If this income growth does not occur, the new equilibrium level
may be realized before 1980. In the short-run, world prices may fall to
$.20 to $.25 per pound within the next 18 months.
Although the world sugar economy influences the U.S. sugar situation, the
latter can also influence the world sugar economy. A growing world supply
and the increased industrial use of corn sweeteners will moderate U.S.
sugar prices. The extent of the long-run impact of corn sweeteners is
not clear, but it is potentially significant.
The United States will likely continue to be a high cost producer, al-
though perhaps not at quite the differential of recent years. As prices
approach the costs of production, U.S. producers would be forced to sell
below their costs and as plantings and mills wear out, this production
will cease. A loss in U.S. production will probably increase U.S. import
requirements and increase competition for foreign supplies. The conse-
quent pressure on foreign supplies would strengthen prices and encourage
U.S. production.
With U.S. sugar consumption in the order of 12 million short tons and
production at about 6.5 million short tons, complete dependence on im-
ports by the U.S. would increase world trade by 5.5 million short tons,
or a 30 percent increase over recent trade levels. A simultaneous
increase of this magnitude in production and processing capacity else-
where in the world in addition to the growing demand for sugar appears
highly improbable within a five year period.
Thus, the above conditions argue that even under a free trade policy
U.S. sugar production is unlikely to decline significantly. A major
production decline would, by stimulating world sugar prices, simul-
taneously strengthen U.S. production.
111-34
-------
Table III- 14.
Value of sugar exports as percent of total exports for
major sugar exporting countries, 1966-1969
Country
Mexico
Dominican Republic
Brazil
Peru
British West Indies
French West Indies
Australia
Taiwan
South Africa
Mauritius
Philippines
1966
4.78
51.09
4.65
6.04
12.81
29.27
4.31
9.91
2.73
90.14
14.75
1967
r\s\ Y*f* c* n *H
6.07
52.56
4.84
7.00
11.88
32.35
5.08
6.08
2.46
90.48
15.25
1968
7.20
50.92
5.42
_ _
11.08
31.17
4.99
5.61
2.61
90.63
15.57
1969
8.54
48.37
4.98
4.50
NA
31.88
3.76
4.38
2.52
89.39
15.46
Source: Trade Yearbook, Food and Agricultural Organization, Rome.
111-35
-------
The likelihood of the Congress enacting a new sugar program is not known.
The current Act expired on 31 December, 1974. A new program may well be
different. In view of recent new programs for other agricultural commodi-
ties and a trade liberalization policy by the United States, one would
speculate that a new program would feature the establishment of target
prices at the producer level with deficiency payments to growers when
actual market prices fall below the target price. The elimination of
input quotas and domestic marketing allocations is also probable. On the
other hand, with the pressure of high world prices, quotas could be con-
tinued to increase U. S. sugar industry profitability (at a level between
past and present conditions) for both producers and processors and increase
domestic production in an effort to bring about intermediate price levels.
Legislation reflecting free trade conditions and deficiency payments would
probably set target prices which approximate the long-run opportunity costs
of domestic cane and beet sugar production. Such a policy would discourage
significant expansion of production in the face of less costly foreign
supplies.
Any legislation reestablishing quotas, including production stimulating
price supports, could increase U.S. price levels above long-term world
prices and long-run opportunity costs of production.
E. Expected Price Impacts
The expected price impacts will depend upon future U.S. sugar policy,
i.e., free-trade or a deficiency payments policy.
Under free-trade policies, mills would probably pass along cost increases
to refiners so long as the resultant price was less than the price of
imported raw sugar. Considering that it may be near or past 1980 before
a new world price equilibrium is reached, the U.S. sugar industry should
remain competitive with world prices. However, the extent to which this
will be realized will depend upon which portion of the milling industry
has pollution control in place, the relative cost of control among the
remaining plants, the degree of integration, and in the case of Puerto
Rico, the commonwealth's position toward subsidization of that segment.
In the case of a policy of deficiency payments to growers and relatively
free trade, mills should be able to pass along cost increases, subject to
the conditions of free trade listed above, so long as the price of imports
is higher than the cost of manufacturing. Depending upon the target pro-
ducer price, it is possible that the ability of the mills to pass along
the costs of pollution control is improved under this scenario over that
of free trade, since under free trade, growers may cease production sooner
than under support payments.
111-36
-------
IV. ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY
This study's economic impact analysis was based upon the industry
information developed in Chapters I-III and data concerning pollution
abatement technology and costs provided by the Environmental Protection
Agency. The impacts examined included:
Price Effect
Financial Effects
Production Effects
Employment Effects
Balance of Trade Effects
Other Effects
The analysis was not a simple sequential analysis, but rather, it was
composed of a number of interacting steps. The schematic of the analy-
tical approach is shown in Figure IV-1. Due to the fundamental relationships
of potential plant shutdowns (financial and production effects) to the
other impacts, a disproportionate amount of time will be devoted to
the plant closure analysis. Because of the severe effect of plant
shutdowns on other effects, the impact study emphasized the analysis of
financial and production effects.
The fundamental aspect of the impact analysis was similar to that usually
done for any capital budgeting study of new investments. The problem
was one of deciding whether a commitment of time and money to a project
is worthwhile in terms of the expected benefits. The problem was com-
plicated by the fact that the analysis dealt with future benefits and
costs and obviously could not have complete and precise information for
future projections. For this reason, the model plant budgets presented
in Chapter II provided the financial returns and costs used in the im-
pact analysis. Key non-quantifiable factors were incorporated into the
analysis to interpret the quantified data. Actual financial results will
differ from the model results, and these variances were considered in
interpreting the findings based on model plants.
A. Fundamental Methodology
The fundamentals of analysis are basic to all impact studies. The core
methodology is here described as a unit. Specific impact analyses are
then discussed under the appropriate headings following this section.
The core analysis for this inquiry was based upon a synthesis of the physical
and financial characteristics of models of cane sugar mills. Estimated
financial profiles and cash flows were presented in Chapter II. The
primary factors involved in assessing the financial and production im-
pacts of pollution control are profitability changes which are a function
of the cost, of pollution control and the ability to pass along these
costs in higher prices. In reality, closure decisions are seldom made
-------
Industry
Industry
Structure
Segmentation
Industry
Financial
Data
EPA Pollution
Control Costs
Base
Closures
Plant Closures
Due to Control
Employment
Effects
Community
Effects
1
Model Plant
Parameters
_>r
Budget
Data
Development
Model
Financial
Analyses
Price
Industry
Pricing
Financial
Profiles
v
f
Shutdown
Analysis
y
I
Production
Expected
Effects
,
r
Foreign
Trade
Effects
s.
/
.< 4
Figure IV-1. Schematic of impact analysis of effluent control guidelines,
IV-2
-------
on a set of well-defined and documented economic rules. For the
individual firm, crucial considerations include the ability to obtain
financing and, in integrated operations, the effect of closure on the
total enterprise. Additionally, a wide range of personal values and
external forces are involved. Such circumstances include but are not
limited to the following conditions:
1. A lack of knowledge on the part of the owner-operator
concerning the actual financial condition of the operation
due to faulty or inadequate accounting systems or procedures.
This is likely to occur among small, independent operators
who do not have an effective cost accounting system.
2. Plant and equipment are old and fully depreciated and the
owner has no intention of replacing or modernizing them.
He continues production as long as he can cover labor and
materials costs and/or until the equipment becomes inoperable.
3. Personal values and goals associated with business owner-
ship prevent rational economic decisions. This complex of
factors may be referred to as the value of psychic income.
4. The plant is a part of a larger integrated entity and
either uses raw materials being produced profitably in
another of the firm's operating units for which an assured
market is critical or, alternatively, it supplies critical
raw materials to another of the firm's operations. When
the profitability of the second operation offsets the losses
in the first plant, the unprofitable operation may continue
indefinitely because the total enterprise is profitable.
5. The owner-operator expects that losses and the conditions
causing them are temporary. His ability to absorb short-term
losses depends upon his access to funds through credit or
personal resources not presently utilized.
6. There are very low (approaching zero) opportunity costs
for the fixed assets and for the owner-operator's manager-
ial skills and/or labor. As long as the operator can meet
labor and materials costs, he will continue to operate.
He may even operate with gross revenues below variable
costs until he has exhausted his working capital and credit.
7. The value of the land on which the plant is located is
appreciating at a rate sufficient to offset short-term losses,
funds are available to meet operating needs, and the oppor-
tunity cost of the owner-operator's managerial skills are low.
These factors are generally associated with proprietorships and closely
held enterprises rather than publicly held corporations.
IV-3
-------
While the above factors are present in and relevant to business decisions,
common economic rules are sufficient to provide useful and reliable in-
sight into potential business responses to required investment and oper-
ating costs in pollution control facilities.
The question of whether or not a particular plant is a part of an inte-
grated operation warrants further discussion. The impact analysis for
cane sugar mills was based on the assumption that each mill "stood alone".
Since many mills are part of a cane growing-milling, a growing-mining-
refining or a milling-refining complex, the impact analysis was expanded
for those integrated mills which were negatively impacted by the imposi-
tion of pollution control in the "stand alone" operations. Where grow-
ing or refining is highly profitable, an integrated mill might continue
to operate under adverse financial conditions, with losses absorbed by
the profitable phase of the total enterprise.
The following discussion presumed an investment in pollution control
facilities. The rules presented apply to on-going operations. In the
simplest case, a plant will be closed when variable expenses (Vc) are
greater than revenues (R) since by closing the plant, losses can be
avoided.
A more probable situation is where VC< R but revenues are less than
variable costs plus cash overhead expenses (TCc) which are fixed in the
short run. In this situation a plant would likely continue to operate
as contributions are made toward covering a portion of these fixed cash
overhead expenses. The firm cannot operate indefinitely under this
condition, but the length of this period is uncertain. Basic to this
strategy of continuing operations is the firm's expectation that revenues
will increase to cover cash outlays. Identification of plants where
TCc> R, but Vc< R led to an estimate of plants that should close over
some period of time if revenues do not increase. However, the timing
of such closures was difficult to predict.
The next level is where TCc< R. Where TCc < R, it is likely that plant
operations will continue so long as the capitalized value of earnings
(CV), at the firm's (industry's) cost of capital, is greater than the
realizable or salvage value (S) of sunk plant investment. If S> CV or CV -
S >0, the firm could realize S in cash, reinvest and be financially better
off, assuming reinvestment at least at the firm's (industry's) cost of
capital.
The computation of CV involved discounting the future earning flows to
present value through the discounting function:
NPV = t , ,_n
I A (1 + i) n
n=l n
where
NPV = net present value
An = a future value in the n " year
i = discount rate at cost of capital
n = number of conversion periods, i.e., 1 year,
2 years, etc.
IV-4
-------
It should be noted that a more common measure of profitability is the
return on investment (ROI) where profits are expressed as a percent of
invested capital (book value), net worth or sales. This should not be
viewed so much as a different estimate of profitability from present
value measures but rather as an entirely different profitability concept.
The data requirements for ROI and NPV measures were derived from the
same basic financial information although the final inputs were handled
differently for each measure.
1. Returns
For the purpose of this analysis, returns for the ROI analysis were
defined as pre-tax and after-tax income and for the NPV analysis as
after-tax cash proceeds. The computation of each is shown below:
Pre-tax income
After-tax income
After-tax cash
proceeds
where
(R-E-I-D)
(1 - T) X (R-E-I-D)
(1 - T) X (R-E-I-D) + D
T = tax rate
R = revenues
E = expenses other than depreciation and interest
I = interest expense
D = depreciation charges
Interest was omitted in the cash proceeds computation since it is re-
flected in the discount rate, the after-tax cost of capital. Deprecia-
tion was included in the NPV measure only in terms of its tax effect
and was then added back to obtain cash proceeds.
A tax rate of 22 percent on the first $25,000 income and 48 percent on
amounts over $25,000 was used throughout the analysis. Accelerated de-
preciation methods, investment tax credits, and carry forward and carry
back provisions were not used due to their complexity and special
limitations.
IV-5
-------
2. Investment
Although investment is normally thought of as outlays for fixed assets and
working capital, in evaluating the closure potentiality of an on-going plant
where the basic investment is sunk, the value of that investment must be
made in terms of its liquidation or salvage value, that is in its opportunity
cost or shadow price. I/ For purposes of this analysis, sunk investment was
taken as the sum of equipment salvage value plus land at current market value
plus the value of the plant's net working capital (current assets less current-
liabilities, see Chapter III for values). This amount was taken as a neg-
ative investment in the terminal year. Replacement investment for plant
maintenance was considered to be equal to annual depreciation, a procedure 'which
corresponds to the operating policies of some managements and which serves
as a good proxy for replacement in an on-going business.
Incremental investments in pollution control facilities were the estimates
provided by EPA as shown in Chapter VI.
3. Cost of Capital - After Tax
Return on invested capital is a fundamental notion in U.S. business. It
provides both a measure of actual performance of a firm as well as
expected performance. In this latter case, it is also called the cost of
capital. The cost of capital is defined as the weighted average of the
cost of each type of capital employed by the firm; in general terms, this
can be expressed as owner's equity and interest-bearing liabilities. There
is no methodology that yields the precise cost of capital, but it can be
approximated within reasonable bounds.
The cost of equities was estimated by two methodsthe dividend yield method
and the earnings stock price (E/P ratio) method. Both are simplifications
of the more complex NPV methodology. The dividend method is:
where
k = cost of capital
D = dividend yield
P = stock price
g = growth
and the E/P method is simply
k = E/P
' This should not be confused with a simple buy-sell situation which
merely involves a transfer of ownership from one firm to another. In
this instance, the opportunity cost (shadow price) of the investment
may be different.
IV-6
-------
where
k = cost of capital
E = earnings
P = stock price
and is a further simplification of the first. The latter assumes future
earnings as a level perpetual stream.
The after-tax cost of debt capital was estimated from reported (annual
financial reports and financial statistics) company outlays for interest
expenses and multiplied by .52 -- assuming a 48 percent tax rate. These
values were weighted by the respective equity to total asset and total
liabilities to total asset ratios.
The estimated cost of capital for the cane sugar milling industry was
indicated in Chapter II.
4. Construction of the Cash Flow
Two periods of analysis were used in the following analysis to reflect
potential raw sugar price levels. For BPT alone a six year period, 1977
through 1982, was used. For BPT and BAT, the cost of the DCF analysis
was done for the period 1983-1999, assuming a new closure decision would
be required in 1983. The rationale for this approach was that prices
appear to be headed downward in the long run, but that in the intermediate
run prices may remain high enough to preclude immediate closures and to
justify BPT investment, though not high enough to permit BAT investment.
The BPT cash flow was constructed as follows:
1. Sunk investment (salvage value of fixed assets plus net
working capital) taken in year t (1976).
2. After-tax proceeds, including incremental pollution control
expenses, taken in two three-year periods, ti through to,
and t* through tg, at various price level alternatives
and summed.
3. Annual replacement investment for the existing facility
equal to depreciation for years tj through tg.
4. Incremental pollution control investment taken in year tr,.
5. Terminal value (salvage value of fixed assets plus net
working capital) taken in year t-,.
The BAT (only) and the BPT plus BAT cash flows were constructed as
follows:
1. Sunk investment (salvage of fixed assets plus net working
capital) taken in year tg (1982).
IV 7
-------
2, After-tax proceeds, including incremental pollution control
expenses, taken for years t^ through t^g.
3. Annual replacement investment for the existing facility
equal to depreciation for years tj through tjg.
4. Incremental pollution control investment (BAT only) taken
in year t .
5. Replacement of BPT investment, where applicable, taken in
year t4 and t14.
6. A replacement of BAT investment taken in year t,Q.
7. Terminal value equal to net working capital and land taken
in year t17.
B. Price Effects
As shown in Figure IV-1, price and production effects are interrelated.
In fact, the very basis of price analysis is the premise that prices
and production are functionally related variables which are simul-
taneously resolved.
Solution of this requires knowledge of demand growth, price elasticities,
supply elasticities, the degree to which regional markets exist, the
degree of dominance exerted by large firms in the industry, the market
concentration exhibited by both the industry's suppliers of inputs and
purchasers of outputs, organization and coordination within the industry,
the relationship of domestic output to the world market, the existence
and nature of complementary goods, cyclical trends in the industry,
current utilization of capacity, ar,d exogenous influences upon price
determination (e.g., governmental regulation).
In view of the complexity and diversity of the factors involved in the deter-
mination of the market price, a purely quantitative approach to the
problem of price effects was not feasible in this study. Hence, the
simultaneous and somewhat qualitative considerations suggested above
were made. The judgment factor was heavily employed in determining the
supply response to a price change and to alternative price changes to
be employed.
The basic premise in the price analysis was that prices will be exogenous-
ly determined via the world market and that mills will take the price
offered by refiners. This further presumed that any losses in U.S.
production due to pollution control per se, would not influence world
price.
IV-8
-------
C. Shutdown Analysis
The shutdown analysis was based upon the technique described above under
Section A and the expected price increase from the preceding analysis.
In addition to this analysis, estimates were made of plant closures
without the imposition of pollution control, or the so-called "baseline"
closures. This analysis involved the same financial analysis technique,
without pollution control, and the factoring in of other information
such as trends in the industry itself and in competing products.
Based on the results of the NPV analysis of model plants, potential
closures were identified where NPV< 0- Segments or plants in the industry
were equated to the appropriate model results. Mitigating circumstances,
such as association with an integrated operation, captive raw material
sources, unique market advantages, in-place controls, and the ability to
finance new non-productive investments were factored in quantitatively
to obtain an estimate of closures. If BAT costs differed from BPT costs,
closure estimates were required for each level of control. Because of
the inexactness of this analysis, these closures were estimated in terms
of ranges.
Due to the uncertainty of future prices the shutdown analysis was per-
formed for various price scenarios. As described above, the shutdown
analysis was done for the period 1977 through 1982 and 1983 and after.
D. Production Effects
Potential production j:"fects included changes in capacity utilization
rates, plant closures, and stagnation of industry growth. Plant closures
may be offset in total or in part by increases in mill capacity by plants
remaining in operation or by the increased use of substitutes such as
corn sweeteners.
E. Employment Effects
The production effects of estimated production curtailments, potential
plant closings, and changes in industry growth, are major effects upon
employment. The employment effects stemming from each of these produc-
tion impacts in terms of jobs lost were estimated using the model plant
information.
F. Community Effects
The direct impact of job losses upon a community are immediately apparent.
Additionally, in many cases, plant closures and cutbacks have through
multiplier effects a greater impact than just that of employment loss.
IV-9
-------
However, income, investment and job multipliers were not available for
specific areas; thus, these indirect effects were not estimated.
In addition to these direct and indirect impacts on communities, growers
may also be affected. The closing of a cane sugar mill could affect
area cane growers and could produce serious dislocation of agricultural
activity. However, alternative uses of land are present; thus the loss
would not be total. A detailed estimate would require farm budget
studies beyond the scope of this study. Such dislocations were, there-
fore, qualitatively discussed.
G. Other Effects
Other impacts such as the direct balance of payments effects were also
included in the analysis. They, too, required qualitative analyses.
IV-10
-------
V. EFFLUENT CONTROL GUIDELINES AND COSTS
The proposed effluent control guidelines, technology, and costs used in
this analysis were provided by the Effluent Guidelines Division of the
Environmental Protection Agency.
Due to various and unique characteristics, the cane sugar milling indus-
try was segmented into five subcategories as follows:
Subcategory I - Louisiana
Subcategory II - Florida and Texas
Subcateogry III - Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
Subcategory IV - Hawaii (other than Hilo Coast)
Subcategory V - Puerto Rico
A. Effluent Control Levels
The proposed effluent guidelines are contained in the Development
Document for Effluent Limitations Guidelines and Standards of
Performance - Sugar Cane Milling Industry. The costs supplied by
the EPA and given in Section "C" below, were based on the proposed
guidelines.
V-l
-------
B. Current Levels of Control
The cane sugar milling industry uses various levels of effluent control
in its plants, varying by and within geographic areas. The Effluent
Guidelines Division of EPA furnished information on in-place technology
and the additional technologies required to achieve proposed BPT and BAT
guidelines.
Subcategory I - Louisiana
Of the 39 factories in Louisiana, only eight factories (19.7 percent of
daily capacity) are reported by Effluent Guidelines Division to require
installation of facilities to attain BPT. Twenty-six (26) plants,
representing 65.4 percent of existing daily capacity reportedly need new
control facilities to meet BAT standards. These groups are not inclusive
since two of the plants are reported to be able to meet BAT with their
added facilities for meeting BPT. The technology requirements for meeting
the proposed guidelines are summarized in Table V-l.
Subcategory II - Florida and Texas
The 9 mills in Subcategory II are all relatively new and currently have
sufficient in-place effluent control technology to meet BPT and BAT
guidelines. As no additional investment nor annual operating costs were
required, Subcategory II was excluded from further impact analysis.
Subcategory Ill-Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
All 4 mills of Subcategory III (expected to be operating in 1977) need
extensive additional technology to meet BPT and BAT guidelines. Two of
the mills are currently dry hauling filter mud-and cane trash. All of
the mills require full treatment of cane wash water and recirculation
and treatment of condenser cooling water as shown in Table V-2.
Subcategory IV - Hawaii (Other)
The 16 factories in Subcategory IV have sufficient effluent control tech-
nologies in place to meet both BPT and BAT proposed guidelines. Since no
additional investment or annual operating costs were required, mills
in Subcategory IV were excluded from further impact analysis.
Subcategory V - Puerto Rico
Only one factory in Puerto Rico has operating treatment controls to meet
BPT and BAT proposed guidelines without further investment or cost.
V-2
-------
Table V-l. Estimated technology requirements to meet proposed BPT and
BAT guide!ines--Subcategory I, Louisiana
Victory
Number
I
3
5
6
7
9
10
11
13
14
16
18
19
21
22
25
26
27
29
31
32
33
34
36
38
39
40
41
43
TOTAL
Condenser Water
Recirculation
Repiping System
BPT BAT BPT BAT
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
01 0 19
Cane Wash Water Filter Mud & Ash
Settling Recirculation Oxidation
Pond System Pond Repiping Slurry Impound
BPT BAT BPT BAT BPT BAT BPT BAT BPT BAT BPT BAT
X X
X
X
X X
XX X
X X
X
X X
X
X
X
XXX X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
40 7 14 20 012020
Summary
BPT
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
8
BAT
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
26
-------
Table V-l. Estimated technology requirements to meet proposed BPT and BAT Guidelines, Subcategory Ill-
Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
Condenser water
Factory No.
67
66
69
f 70
Aerated
lagoon
BAT
X
X
X
X
Spray
pond
BAT
X
X
X
X
Settling
pond
BAT
X
X
X
X
Cane wash water
Thicken
CW stream
3PT
X
X
X
X
Vacuum
filter
BPT
X
X
X
X
Haul
mud
BPT
X
X
X
X
Filter mud Fly ash Trash
Summary
dry haul Dry haul Dry haul
BPT BPT BPT BPT
X X
X X
X XX
X XXX
BAT
X
X
X
X
-------
Of the remaining 10 factories, all will require varying additional
treatment technologies to meet BPT requirements. In addition, 9 of the
10 will also have additional investment and annual operating expenditures
to meet proposed BAT guidelines. The specified requirement for each plant
is shown in Table V-3.
Table V-4 summarizes estimated U. S. raw sugar production, based on ex-
pected mill operations as of 1977. The table includes the production
affected by BPT and BAT requirements for each subcategory. Of a total
estimated U.S. production of 54,903,000 cwt. of raw sugar, mills repre-
senting 36,170,000 cwt or 66 percent of U.S. total production reportedly
have technology in place to meet proposed BPT and BAT requirements.
Twenty-seven percent of Louisiana's production and 10 percent of Puerto
Rican production need no new investment for pollution control.
Subcategories II and IV production, also, needs no further investment.
Table V-4 further shows that approximately 24 percent of U.S. production
will be affected by BPT controls and about 32 percent by BAT requirements.
It should be noted that because not all mills require both BPT and BAT invest-
ment, BAT is not additive to BPT. About 10 percent of U.S. production is
double-counted in the BPT and BAT percentages.
C. Effluent Control Costs
The effluent control investments and annual costs used were based upon data
provided by Effluent Guidelines Division. To reflect the variances in
requirements, each of the plants were grouped into one of the model plant
groups (Chapter II). The costs of the various effluent control require-
ments for these plants as shown in Tables V-5 to V-13 were estimated on
a model plant equivalent basis in 1973 dollars. Thus, the resulting
costs do not reflect any one plant per se, although the model generally
reflects plants in its grouping.
The total annual costs for each of the subcategories include depreciation
at 10 percent of pollution control investment (10-year straight line de-
preciation). Total annual costs also include interest charges of 8 percent
on one-half the pollution control investment on the assumption that the
entire amount is borrowed for 10 years and retired in 10-equal installments.
Thus, the "average" interest over 10 years would be only one-half that of
the first year. Operating and maintenance costs, furnished by EPA, are
essentially functions of mill size and the different effluent control alter-
natives. These costs were converted to model plant equivalents and are
stated in 1973 dollars.
V-5
-------
I
CTi
I/
2/
Table V-3. Estimated technology requirements to meet proposed BPT and
BAT Guidelines Subcategory V- Puerto Rico
Factory
Number
Condenser
Entrainment
Control Repipe
BPT BAT BAT
52
56
58
59
62
64
53
54
57
63
60
Total
X
X
X
X
4
X
X
X
X
3 1
Water
Recirculate
BAT
X
X
X
X
X ,,
Y '
X
X
X
9
Settling
Pond
BPT
X
X
X
X
4
Cane Wash Water
Recirculate
BPT
X
X
X
X
X
X
6
Oxidation
Pond
BPT
X
X
X
X
X
X
6
Filter Mud,
Dry
Handle
BPT
X
X
X
3
Ash, Chemicals
Slurry
Impound Repi
BPT BP
X
X
X
xl/
X
X
5 I/ 1
, Misc.
pe Summary
T BPT
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
10
BAI
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
9
Alternative to dry handling.
May not need.
-------
Table V- 4. Estimated production of raw sugar affected by
pollution control requirements, 1977 and 1983.
Mill
Size
Subcategory Category
I-Louisiana Large
Medium
Small
II-Florida and Texas Large
Small
Ill-Hawaii (Hilo Coast) Large
Medium
Small
IV-Hawaii (Other) Large
Medium
Small
V-Puerto Rico Large
Medium
Small
TOTAL
Annual
Total
4,756
3,965
1,890
10,611
11,453
4,567
16,020
1,954
2,912
732
5,598
7,828
8,228
684
16,740
2,409
3,396
129
5,934
54,903
Production of raw
BPT
l nnn <
\ UUU (
824
738
520
2,082
1,954
2,912
732
5,598
2,409
2,803
129
5,341
13,021
BATl/
'>>it- ^
-WL. /
2,796
2,932
1,561
7,289
1,954
2,912
732
5,598
2,409
2,426
129
4,964
17,851
sugar
No P.C.
required
1,960
528
329
2,817
11,453
4,567
16,020
7,828
8,228
684
16,740
593
593
36,170
Percentages
Total
8.7
7.2
3.4
19.3
20.9
8.3
29.2
3.6
5.3
1.3
10.2
14.3
15.0
1.2
30.5
4.4
6.2
0.2
10.8
i oo r\(-- /
X \J U U~~~
of raw
BPT
sugar
BAT!/
int ^
1.5 5.1
1.3 5.3
1.0 2.8
3.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.6
5.3
1.3
10.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.4
5.1
0.2
9.7
23.7
13.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.6
5.3
1.3
10.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.4
4.4
0.2
9.0
32.4
production
No P.C.
required
3.6
1.0
0.6
5.2
20.9
8.3
29.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
14.3
15.0
1.2
30.5
0.0
1.1
0.0
1.1
66.0
I/ Figures contain some duplication of production reported under BPT.
2_/ May not add to 100.0 due to rounding.
-------
Table V-5. Estimated costs for BPT in cane sugar
mills--Subcategory I, Louisiana
(1973 Dollars)
Model
( TPn\
\ ' " u;
2,200
3,300
5,000
Mill
Nn
10
16
19
22
3
40
7
11
Tnwpc f1
ment
195
84
64
271
163
81
209
229
ft
0 & Ml/
66
13
11
99
72
15
132
36
mnual Cos
Deprec.
_
-------
Table V-6. Estimated costs for BAT in cane sugar
mills--Subcategory I, Louisiana
(1973 Dollars)
Model
(TPD)
V I ru I
2,200
3,300
5,000
Mill
Nn
I1U
36
13
25
9
1
10
19
16
6
27
41
14
40
21
33
5
43
26
18
31
7
11
39*
29
32
34
38
T n w P c t"
1 F 1 V Co L
ment
245
256
240
210
181
171
161
161
64
319
207
236
218
82
82
81
359
359
311
311
197
259
253
105
72
52
36
0 & M :
26
25
24
14
13
13
13
13
12
35
27
20
18
15
15
15
43
43
40
40
28
25
23
21
9
2
2
Annual Cos
L/Deprec.
t
Interest
10
10
10
8
7
7
6
6
3
13
8
9
9
3
3
3
14
14
12
12
8
10
10
4
3
2
1
Total
61
61
58
43
38
37
35
35
21
80
56
53
49
26
26
26
93
93
83
83
56
61
58
36
19
9
7
Annual
Pn^t" npv
l>Uo \f |JC 1
Cwt Sugar
.37
.37
.35
.29
.23
.22
.21
.21
.13
.34
.22,
.21
.19
.10
.10
.10
.23
.23
.21
.21
.14
.15
.14
.09
.05
.02
.02
I/ Operation and maintenance
*" May have zero costs
V-9
-------
Table V-7. Estimated costs for BPT & BAT in cane sugar mil 1s--
Subcategory I, Louisiana
(1973 Dollars)
Model Mi 1 1
(TPD) Nn
\ 1 f LJ J 1 YLJ *
2,200 36
13
25
9
1
10
19
16
6
3,300 22
3
27
41
14
40
21
33
5
5,000 43
26
18
31
7
11
39 *
29
32
34
38
T nup^ t"
±. \ \ V C O I*
ment
245
256
240
210
181
366
225
245
64
271
163
319
207
236
299
82
82
81
359
359
311
311
406
488
253
105
72
52
36
0 & M
26
25
24
14
13
79
24
26
12
99
72
35
27
20
33
15
15
15
43
43
40
40
160
61
23
21
9
2
2
Annual Cos
i/Deprec.
*i nnn
25
26
24
21
18
37
23
25
6
27
16
32
21
24
30
8
8
8
36
36
31
31
41
49
25
11
7
5
4
it
Interest
10
10
10
8
7
15
9
9
3
11
7
13
8
9
12
3
3
3
14
14
12
12
16
19
10
4
3
2
1
Total
61
61
58
45
38
131
56
60
21
137
95
80
56
53
75
26
26
26
93
93
83
83
217
129
58
36
19
9
7
Annual
Pnc i~ nov
uub U per
Cwt Sugar
.37
.37
.35
.27
.23
.79
.34
.36
.13
.54
.37
.31
.22
.21
.29
.10
.10
.10
.23
.23
.21
.21
.54
.32
.14
.09
.05
.02
.02
I/
Operation and Maintenance
* May have zero costs
V-10
-------
Table V-8. BPT pollution control investment and annual operating costs for
model mills, Subcategory III - Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
(1973 dollars)
Model Mill
Net TPD
1,800
3,300 High
Low
4,800
Invest-
ment
1,517
2,248
1,925
2,484
O&M -1
389
625
554
625
Depreci-
ation
_ _ _
-------
Table V-9. BAT pollution control investment and annual operating costs for
model mills, Subcategory III - Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
(1973 dollars)
Model Mill
Net TPD
1,800
3,300 High
Low
4,800
Invest-
ment
257
495
472
687
O&M I/
39
61
45
80
Depreci
ation
26
50
47
69
Interest
-------
Table V-10. BPT plus BAT pollution control investment and annual operating
costs for model mills, Subcategory III - Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
(1973 dollars)
Model Mill
Net TPD
1,800
3,300 High
Low
4,800
Invest-
ment
1,774
2,743
2,397
3,171
O&M -1
428
686
599
705
Depreci
ation
177
274
240
317
Interest
-------
Table V- 11. Estimated cost for BPT in cane sugar mills, Subcategory V-Puerto Rico (1973 dollars)
Annual Costs
Model
4,500
8,000
Mill
No.
60 £/
53
57
64
59
56
63
54
52
58
Investment
203
308
248
156
298
4
157
742
65
2
O&M U
55
131
121
23
40
0.4
22
286
34
0.1
Depreciation"
$1
20
31
25
16
30
0.4
16
74
7
0.2
Interest
,000
8
12
10
6
12
0.2
6
JO
3
0.1
Total
83
174
156
45
82
1
44
390
44
0.4
Cost per
cwt.
$
.64
.36
.32
.09
.17
.002
.09
.45
.05
.0004
Less sugar Net total
savings cost
$1,000
30
_-
__
65
__
64
111
__
53
174
156
45
17
1
(20)
279
44
0.4
Net cost
per cwt
.1.
$
.41
.36
.32
.09
.04
.002
(.04)
.32
.05
.0004
JY Operation and maintenance
-/Represents a mill that is a special case and does not fit model.
-------
Table V- 12. Estimated cost for BAT in cane sugar mills, Subcategory V-Puerto Rico (1973 dollars)
Annual Costs
Model
TPD
4,500
8,000
Mill
No.
60 i/
63
59
53
64
56
54
58
52
Investment
81
284
208
170
79
136
254
138
177
O&Ml/
------
8
39
22
18
6
19
24
22
24
Depreciation
$1
8
28
21
17
8
14
25
14
18
Interest
Total
,000
3
11
8
7
3
5
10
6
7
19
78
51
42
17
38
59
42
49
Cost per
cwt.
$
.14
.13
.08
.07
.03
.06
.05
.04
.05
Less sugar
savings
- __o nnn
_-
--
__
63
__
108
111
Net total
cost
19
78
51
42
17
(25)
59
(66)
(62)
Net cost
per cwt
$
.14
.13
.08
.07
.03
(.05)
.05
(.08)
(.07)
- Operation and maintenance
U Represents a mill that is a special case and does not fit model.
-------
Table V'-l 3.
Estimated cost for BPT & BAT in cane sugar mills, Subcategory V-Puerto Rico (1973 dollars)
Mil'
Model No,
,5()r
8,000
53
57
59
64
63
56
54
58
Investment
/ 284
478
248
506
235
441
140
996
242
140
O&M!/
63
149
121
62
29
61
19
310
58
22
Annual 1
Depreciation'
.79
.45
.32
.27
.13
.25
.08
.52
.11
.05
Less sugar
savings
«l nn
30
__
65
_-
64
63
111
111
108
Net total
cost
o
72
216
156
68
62
58
(24)
339
(19)
(66)
Net cost
per cwt
$
.55
.45
.32
.14
.13
.12
.05
.39
(.02)
(.08)
j7 Operation and maintenance
o /
'Represents a mill that is a special case and does not fit model.
-------
Unique circumstances regarding annual costs prevail in each of the three
impacted subcategories. In all three, land costs associated with pollu-
tion controls are based on the economic costs of taking land out of pro-
duction, since Effluent Guidelines determined that no mill would need to
purchase land for pollution control use. In Louisiana and Puerto Rico,
the profitability of cane land is marginal under 1973 price and cost
conditions (some studies show negative returns to land in both geographic
regions); therefore, no land costs have been assigned to Louisiana and
Puerto Rico. Obviously, as sugar prices rise, some economic costs would
be incurred. On the other hand, the amount of land involved is small
for most mills in Louisiana and Puerto Rico. Acreages range from 3.3 to
18.6 acres in Louisiana and from one-half to 44 acres in Puerto Rico.
Subcategory III is different. Because mills on the upper Hilo Coast
require considerable acreage to be removed from production, substantial
land costs would be incurred. These dollar values are shown in Table V-8
through V-10, based on an annual loss of net income of $300 per acre.
Such a figure would fluctuate with sugar prices; therefore, in building
land costs into the model mill pro forma income and expense statements
shown in Chapter VI, sales revenues and operating costs were reduced to
reflect the acreage taken out of production at each of the various assumed
price levels.
An additional factor had to be considered for Puerto Rican mills. Some
of the control technology would include in-mill modifications of equipment
to prevent loss of sucrose in the manufacturing process and also to per-
mit some sucrose recovery from the process effluent. Thus, "sugar savings'
will result for seven of the mills. These savings are shown in Tables
V-ll through V-13, based on 1973 sugar prices. In Chapter VI, the savings
were adjusted for the various price alternatives in the impact analysis.
In each case, savings were added to sales revenues.
Tables V-5 through V-13 also show the pollution control annual costs in
dollars per hundredweight of raw sugar. The costs per cwt. were derived
by dividing the throughput of each of the model mills (Table II-5) into
the total annual costs.
V-17
-------
D. Total Effluent Control Costs
Based on the control investment and costs provided by the Effluent
Guidelines Division used to develop model plant costs, total ef-
fluent control investment and annual costs were estimated in 1973
dollars as shown in Table V-14. Also shown in Table V-14 are the
total cost estimates of the Effluent Guidelines Division in August,
1971 dollars. In 1973 dollars, total estimated investment for BPT
was $11.90 million with a total annual cost of $5,250 million. About
70 percent of these costs are represented by Subcategory III - the Hilo
Coast of Hawaii. Total estimated costs for BAT are lower than BPT
requirements with only $8.49 million (1973 dollars) investment and
$1,913 million (1973 dollars) total annual costs. In the case of BAT
technology, Subcategory I - Louisiana would have about 60 percent of
the investment costs and 65 percent of the annual costs.
Differences in the two estimates are explained by several factors.
The most obvious factor is the difference due to the use of 1973
dollars and August, 1971 dollars. The conversion factor used to
convert from August, 1971 dollars to 1973 dollars was 1.1426. The
different time base explains all variances in investment costs, except
Hawaii, where $101,000 (1973 dollars) less investment for BAT was taken
based upon information from Hawaii indicating this amount of investment
to be in place which was not reflected in the Effluent Guidelines estimate.
Variances in total annual costs are explained by the different time base,
depreciation rate and base, interest base and prices used for estimating
sugar savings. The depreciation rate used in this report was 10 percent
while that used in the Effluent Guidelines estimate was five percent.
A minor difference in depreciation and interest costs resulted from a
different matching of investment ranges with annual cost ranges. This
report used the highest investment estimate, with the highest annual
costs and thus the costs used in this report are conservative. The
small reduction in BAT investment for BAT in Hawaii contributed slightly
to this annual cost difference through depreciation and interest costs.
The price used to compute sugar savings in Puerto Rico, which were
treated as negative costs, varied between the two years. A price of
510.29 per hundredweight was used for 1973 and price of S8.52 for
hundredweight was used for 1971.
Normalizing the two estimates to 1973 dollars, the estimated annual costs
for BPT of this report exceeded that of Effluent Guidelines by 13 percent.
Ninety-nine percent of this difference was composed of the higher de-
preciation used in this report. In the case of annual BAT costs, the
estimate in this report exceeded the Effluent Guidelines estimate by
30 percent, of which 94 percent of the difference was due to depreciation.
V-18
-------
Table V-14. Total estimated costs for effluent control by technology and
subcategory
1973$
Technology Subcategory
BPT I - Louisiana
III - Hawaii (Hilo
coast)
V - Puerto Rico
Total
BAT I - Louisiana
III - Hawaii (Hilo
coast)
V - Puerto Rico
Total
Investment
(mill.)
$ 1.31
8.32
2.27
$11.90
5.00
1.84
1.65
$ 8.49
1
Total
annual
costs Investment
(mill.) (mill.)
$ .680 $ 1.15
3.810 -1
.783 -f
$5.273 $1
1.248
.492 -1
.145^
$1.885 $
7.28
1.98
0.41
4.38
1.70
1.45
7.53
971$ l7
Total
annual
costs
(mill.)
$ .528
2.940 -f
.592 -f
$40.60
.874
.383^
.068 -f
$ 1.325
August 1971 dollars for the high estimate as provided by the Effluent Guide-
lines Division in the Development Document for Sugar Cane Milling.
2/
Includes value of production foregone annually due to use of land for
3/
disposal.
Includes sugar savings as negative costs.
V-19
-------
VI. IMPACT ANALYSIS
The analysis of the impacts of effluent limitations on the cane sugar
industry is difficult when the industry is experiencing the highest
prices on record. The increase to these record levels has occurred in
the last 12 to 18 months and raises the question of what prices will
prevail in the future. The impact analyses at alternative price levels
are described below. The impacts due to effluent controls even under
the lowest price scenario do not appear to be catastrophic. The impacts
include:
A. Price effects
B. Financial effects
C. Production effects
D. Employment effects
E. Balance of payments effects
F. Other
A. Price Effects
As concluded in Chapter III, prices will play a pivotal role in the future
of U.S. cane mills and in determining the extent to which pollution con-
trols will effect plant shutdowns. It seems clear that prices will fall
from current high levels. However, the rate of the price decline is uncer-
tain. To accommodate this uncertainty the impact of pollution controls
was analyzed under alternative price scenarios. The specific price alter-
natives used were as follows:
Alternative Period Price I/
(No.) (IT^T)
BPT
1 1977-79 20.00
1980-82 15.00
2 1977-79 15.00
1980-82 12.50
3 1977-79 12.50
1980-82 10.29
BAT
1 1983 and after 15.00
2 1983 and after 12.50
3 1983 and after 10.29
Expressed in 1973 dollars. Hawaiian prices were reduced by $1.24 per
hundredweight to reflect the lon-g-term difference due to freight to the
main!ine.
VI-1
-------
Six combinations of prices over time for BPT and BAT, where applicable,
were used as follows:
Alternative
1-1
1-2
1-3
2-2
2-3
3-3
Unless the United States imposes a highly protective sugar policy, mill
receipts will depend on the prices that the refiners will pay, governed
by the world price for raw sugar.
With approximately 60 percent of the U. S. cane mill production integrated
with refineries, the likelihood of passing along cost increases is in-
creased; however, because of the dependence of the United States on sugar
imports (about 45 percent), the world price situation appears to be
overriding.
Although these conditions set important potential limits, the amount of
production requiring pollution control investment is very important. As
shown in Chapter V, only 24 percent of the U.S. cane mill production is
estimated to require additional investment to reach BPT control levels.
In terms of both BPT and BAT levels, 32 percent of the production will
require additional investment. With so large a portion of the industry
with controls already in place (generally the larger, lower cost, plants
and production areas), the ability of impacted mills to pass along cost
increases appears to be severely limited.
While it is true that because sugar demand is inelastic (due to the avail-
ability of imports and substitute sweeteners ) a small reduction in quantity
would raise prices substantially, serious price impacts will not result
from the relatively light production curtailments expected under pollution
controls .
Table VI-1 contains the estimated costs of pollution control per hundred-
weight by segment. Subcategory III (Hilo Coast) is the highest cost seg-
ment while subcategory V is the lowest. In total, the average estimated
cost per hundredweight is about $.36-$. 37 per hundred for the affected
production. Assuming a constant output, the cost of BPT per hundredweight
of cane sugar production is $.08 and $.12 for BPT and BAT. Under current
price levels, the amount of increased cost would be quite small. At 1973
price levels the average cost increase would be about three-fourths of one
percent for BPT and about one percent for BPT and BAT combined.
VI-2
-------
Although the above percentages represent an approximate required price
increase, it is again noted that the world price appears to be the
overriding factor and that costs will not be passed on £er_ j>e_, particu-
larly if prices remain above the 1973 level.
B. Financial Effects
The effects of pollution controls on the financial conditions of model
cane sugar mills are shown for each of the geographic subcategories in
Tables VI-2 through VI-13. There are two sets of tables: the first
set (VI-2 through VI-6) reports estimated after-tax returns on investment
and cash flows before and after pollution controls; the second set
(Tables VI-7 through VI-13) shows estimated net present values before and
after pollution controls. Both sets of tables include values at the
several price alternatives reported previously under "Price Effects."
1. Effects on Rates of Return and Cash Flows
Subcategory I - Louisiana --Tables VI-2 (non-integrated operations) and
VI-3 (integrated operations) present the appropriate data on rates of
return and cash flows for Louisiana model mills. Rates of return and cash
flows are generally slightly higher for integrated operations. This re-
sults from economies in general overhead and cane transportation costs.
Pollution control impacts are shown in Tables VI-2 and VI-3 for both
the highest and the lowest levels of pollution control annual operating
costs. Return on investment moves from positive to negative in only
two cases in Table VI-2, e.g.,(l) the 2,200 TPD mill at a $12.50 price
under BPT plus BAT (High) and (2) the 3,300 TPD mill at a $10.29 price
under BPT and BPT plus BAT. Several other returns are reducd to near
zero at the $10.29 price. In Table VI-3, positive returns move to
negative for the 2,200 TPD and 3,300 TPD mills at the $10.29 price
under certain pollution control conditions. Even the 5,000 TPD inte-
grated mill has its rate of return reduced to near zero at a $10.29
price.
Cash flows are adversely affected by pollution controls for nearly all
mills in both Tables VI-2 and VI-3, especially for the two smaller mills
at the $10.29 price. The most severe cash flow condition among non-
integrated mills is for the 2,200 TPD and 3,300 TPD mills at the $10.29
price. The same two mills are also most severely impacted in the inte-
grated model at the $10.29 price. At all higher prices, cash flows
appear quite strong.
VI-3
-------
Table VI-1. Estimated pollution control costs per hundred-
weight by subcategory and United States
Subcategory
I - Louisiana
III - Hilo Coast
V - Puerto Rico
Affected production
All U. S. production
Model
TPD
i r LJ
2,200
3,300
5,000
All
1,800
3,300
4,800
All
4,500
8,000
All
-
_
BPT
.27
.35
.28
.30
.82
.67
.59
.50
.61
.13
.13
.13
.36
.08
BPT and BAT
/r\A*t
/ CW L -
.37
.20
.30
.27
.92
.77
.67
.59
.70
.21
.11
.16
.37
.12
VI-4
-------
Table VI-2. Estimated book rates of return and cash flows after-tax
under different pollution controls and at various sugar price levels.
Subcategory I -- Louisiana, non integrated mills
After-Tax ROI
Sugar
Model Price
$/cwt
2,200 TPD 10.29
12.50
15.00
20.00
3,300 TPD 10.29
12.50
15.00
20.00
5,000 TPD 10.29
12.50
15.00
20.00
BPT
Base
( 4)
7
17
36
1
8
15
31
4
10
16
29
Low
( 6)
6
15
33
0
7
14
28
3
8
13
26
High
(12)
1
9
25
( 6)
3
10
23
1
7
13
25
BPT &
Low
-Percent-
( 8)
7
11
26
( 2)
4
10
23
2
7
12
24
BAT
High
(13)
( 2)
6
20
( 6)
4
11
26
0.4
16
11
23
BAT
Low
( 6)
6
15
33
0
7
14
28
4
9
16
29
High
( 8)
3
10
25
( 3)
5
11
24
2
7
10
25
Base
(8)
90
174
34?
7,.
191
320
580
230
411
615
1,025
Cash Flow
BPT
Low
(22)
85
169
338
64
185
315
575
217
399
603
1,013
High
(82)
58
145
313
(28)
147
;:76
536
167
348
553
962
BPT
Low
cnnn
( (41)
83
167
336
37
167
297
557
211
412
606
1,026
& BAT
High
(102)
41
143
311
(28)
147
276
536
154
257
544
953
BAT
Low
(23)
85
169
337
64
185
315
575
230
411
616
1,025
High
(44)
82
167
335
34
181
311
571
217
399
499
1,015
Note: "Low" and "High" are the lowest and highest pollution control (annual) costs for the various operating mills in
each model mill subcategory.
-------
Table VI- 3. Estimated book rate of return and cash flows after tax under different pollution controls and at
various sugar price levels, Subcategory I-Louisiana, Integrated mills
After-Tax ROI
Model
TPD
2,200
3,300
5,000
Note : "Low"
mode
Sugar
Price Base
$/cwt
10.29 0.4
12.50 6
15.00 12
20.00 25
10.29 1
12.50 6
15.00 14
20.00 26
10.29 3
12.50 8
1 5 . 00 13
20.00 25
and "High" are
BPT
Low
High
BPT
Low
& BAT
High
BAT
Low
High Base
Cash Flow
BPT
Low
High
Percent
(0.3)
6
12
24
1
8
13
25
2
7
12
23
the 1
3
4
9
21
2
4
11
22
1
6
15
22
owest
(2)
4
10
22
0
5
12
23
1
6
15
22
and hi
(4)
3
8
19
(2)
4
11
22
0.5
5
14
21
ghest pol
(0.3)
5
12
24
1
8
13
25
3
8
17
25
lution
(2)
4
10
21
(0.2)
5
12
22
2
6
15
23 1
control
84
220
370
670
157
345
550
972
316
582
882
,482 1
annual
73
216
365
665
152
398
544
966
304
570
870
,469
costs
13
191
341
646
75
300
506
928
254
520
819
1,419
for the
BPT
Low
$000--
40
213
363
663
140
336
541
963
298
564
864
1,463
various
& BAT
High
(5)
189
339
639
75
300
506
928
244
511
810
1,410
operating
Low
72
215
365
665
152
398
544
966
317
583
882
1 ,482
mill s
BAT
High
51
213
362
663
137
335
540
962
304
570
870
1 ,469
in each
1 mill subcategory.
-------
Table VI-4. Estimated book rates of return and cash flows after tax under different pollution controls
and at various sugar price levels
Subcategory Ill-Hawaii (Hilo Coast), non-integrated
Sug
Model pri
1,800 9.
11.
13.
18.
3,300 9.
11.
13.
18.
4,800 9.
11.
13.
18.
;jv
05
26
76
76
05
26
76
76
05
26
76
76
After Tax ROI
BPT
Base
1
9
17
34
3
19
32
58
9
27
41
69
High
(11)
2
8
19
(9)
9
17
35
1
16
26
46
Low
- percent -
--
--
--
(8)
10
19
38
--
--
BPT I
High
(12)
1
6
18
(9)
8
16
32
(1)
14
23
42
i BAT
Low
__
__
--
(9)
8
17
34
--
--
Cash Flow
BPT
Base
183
431
710
1,271
501
1,302
1,933
3,205
1,030
2,143
3,034
4,817
High
(246)
380
660
1,221
(94)
1,202
1,833
3,105
772
2,066
2,957
4,739
Low
toon
-_
__
--
(22)
1,230
1,861
3,133
--
--
BPT & BAT
High
(295)
367
647
1,208
(111)
1,217
1,847
3,119
723
2,044
2,935
4", 71 7
Low
_-
--
(8-1)
1,216
1,846
3,118
--
--
I/
Equivalent to other region prices of 10.29, 12.50, 15.00, 20.00.
-------
I
CO
Table VI-5. Estimated book rate of return and cash flows after tax under different pollution controls
and at various sugar price levels
Subcategory III - Hawaii (Hilo Coast), Integrated
Model
3,300
4,800
Sugar
price
9.05
11.26
13.76
18.76
9.05
11.26
13.76
18.76
After Tax
Base
12
25
43
79
14
31
50
88
High
1
13
26
53
7
20
36
67
BPT
Low
percent -
3
16
30
58
--
--
--
ROI
BPT I
High
0.4
12
24
50
8
21
36
61
Cash Flow
1 BAT
Low
2
14
28
55
--
--
--
BPT
Base
1,747
3,191
4,823
8,086
2,792
4,814
7,099
11,670
High
1,245
2,569
4,066
7,058
2,316
4,288
6,516
10,973
Low
tinnn
-4>UUU --
1,406
2,798
4,371
7,517
__
-_
--
BPT &
High
1,223
2,545
4,035
7,030
2,601
4,596
6,822
10,648
BAT
Low
1,390
2,781
4,352
7,493
_.
--
-------
Subcategory III- Hawaii (Hilo Coast) --Tables VI-4 (non-integrated operations)
and VI-5 (integrated operations) reveal pollution control impacts on rates
of return and cash flows among Hilo Coast model plants. BPT impacts rates
of return severely for all of the model mills (both integrated and non-
integrated). While cash flows are reduced for all mills, the severest
impact is on the 1,800 and 3,300 TPD non-integrated mills at the $9.05 price
level. The integrated mills have very large cash flows under both base-
line and BPT conditions.
BAT impact on financial conditions is relatively minor in all models.
The most severe situation is the heavy negative cash flow for the 3,300
TPD non-integrated mill at a $9.05 price.
Subcategory V - Puerto Rico -- The financial effects of pollution control
on Puerto Rican mills are shown in Table VI-6. The effects on both rates
of return and cash flows are somewhat nominal for most models at almost
every price alternative. There is a substantial drop in rate of return
for some of the mills (i.e., the 4,500 TPD model at $10.29, $12.50 and
$15.00 and the 5,000 TPD model at $10.29). Cash flows for the most part
remain fairly stable.
Much of the explanation for the rather modest effect of pollution controls
in Puerto Rico is that sugar savings tend to offset pollution control costs
in most of the mills. Thus, better earnings result, along with higher
depreciation charges for pollution control investment.
2. Effects on Net Present Values
Tables VI-7 through VI-13 include net present values for model mills with
and without pollution controls and at the various price alternatives dis-
cussed earlier. Tables VI-7 through VI-9 are for Louis\fma, VI-10 and VI-11
for Hawaii (Hilo Coast) and VI-12 and VI-13 for Puerto Rico. A range of
pollution control costs (high and low) was used to estimate the lowest and
highest net present values for all of the model mills in each size group
in Subcategories I and V. Hawaii (Hilo Coast) did not have a range of costs
since there was only one cost for each model mill.
The impact on NPV's is most severe in Louisiana and moderately severe in
the other two subcategories. In each case, under price scenario 3, the
net present values fall drastically, with Louisiana mills virtually all
moving to negative NPV's under the weight of BAT. The closure analysis
under "Production Effects" covers these impacts in greater detail.
VI-9
-------
Table VI-
Estimated book rate of return and cash flows after tax under different pollution controls and at
various sugar price levels, Subcategory V-Puerto Rico, Non-integrated
After-Tax ROI
Sugar
Model Price
TPD $/cwt
4. b()0 10.29
12.50
15.00
20.00
8,000 10.29
12.50
15.00
20.00
BPT
Base
(9)
3
12
29
8
17
27
47
Low
(9)
3
12
29
8
17
27
47
High
(13)
1
8
24
4
13
22
46
BPT &
Low
-Percent-
(14)
4
12
29
8
18
28
48
BAT
High
(14)
0.4
7
23
3
11
19
36
BAT
Low
(10)
3
11
28
7
16
25
45
High
(11)
2
10
26
7
16
25
45
Base
(224)
213
509
1,102
600
1,087
1,614
2,668
Cash Flow
BPT
Low
(224)
213
509
1,102
600
1,087
1,614
2,668
High
(347)
152
449
1,042
519
1,028
1,568
2,651
BPT
Low
$000-
(186)
246
550
1,159
648
1,147
1,687
2,768
& BAT
High
(392)
165
445
1,037
466
953
1 ,480
2,533
Low
(233)
212
508
1,101
554
1,041
1,568
2,623
BAT
High
(274)
200
496
1,039
581
1,081
1,608
2,661
Note: "Low" and "High" are the lowest and highest pollution control
each model mill subcategory.
annual costs for the various operating mills in
-------
Table VI- 7a.
Net present values of non-integrated model mills with and without BPT pollution controls in
Subcategory I-Louisiana under various price scenarios
Model Mill
capacity
TPD
2,200
3,300
5,000
Total mills
*/
Net present
Scenario
1
2
3
Annual
No. of production
mills cwt/sugar cc
3
3
2
8
value assumes
1977-79
$20.00
$15.00
$12.50
000
529
738
824
2,082
sugar prices
1980-82
$15.00
$12.50
$10.29
Range of
po i lULion =p/
)ntrol costs Base -'
Net Present Value /
BPT Base -1
BPT Base 2J
BPT
-------
Table VI-7b. Net present values of integrated model mills with and without BPT pollution controls in
Subcategory I-Louisiana under various price scenarios
Model Mill Annual Range of
capacity No. of production pollution
TPD mills cwt/sugar control costs
2,200 3
3,300 3
5,000 2
Total mills 8
*/
' Net present value assumes
Scenario 1977-79
1 $20.00
2 $15.00
3 $12.50
000
529
738
824
2,082
sugar prices
1980-82
$15.00
$12.50
$10.29
high
low
high
low
high
low
per hundred
Net Present Value /
; Base -/ BPT Base
1,733 1,438 624
1,659
2,122 1,709 988
2,029
3,954 3,464 1,737
3,729
weight for the three scenarios
-/ BPT Base %
. $nnn -.------.--------
328 (61)
552
557 7
1,019
1,249 381
1,514
as follows:
BPT
(446)
(145)
(505)
69
(106)
157
Note: "High" and "low" are the highest and lowest pollution control annual costs for the various operating mills
in each model mill subcategory.
-------
Table VI- 8a. Net oresent values of non-integrated model mills with and without BPT & BAT pollution controls in
Subcategory I-Louisiana under various price scenarios
Model Mill
capacity
TPD
2,200
3,300
5,000
Total mills
*/
Net present
Scenario
1
2
3
No. of
mi 11 s
3
1
2
6
Annual
production
cwt/sugar
000
520
233
824
1,577
Range of
pollution
control costs
high
low
high
low
value assumes sugar prices per hundred
1983-96
$15.00
$12.50
$10.29
Base -/ BPT&BAT
1,075 441
874
1,894 1,369
3,753 2,697
3,201
weight for the three
Net Present Value f
Base -1 BPT&BAT Base -f
-------
Table VI-8b. :iet Present values of integrated model mills with and without BPT and BAT pollution controls in
Subcategory I-Louisiana under various price scenarios
Model Mill
capacity
TPD
2,200
3,300
5,000
Total mills
*
Net present
Scenario
1
2
3
No.
mi
3
1
2
6
Of
11s
Annual
production
cwt/sugar
000
520
233
824
1,577
value assumes sugar prices
Range of
nnl 1 nt"5 nn
control costs Base -'
high 1,962
low
3,012
high 4,880
low
per hundred weight for the
BPT&BAT
1
1
2
3
4
,324
,664
,617
,773
,231
thre<;
Net Present Value /
Base -/ BPT&BAT Base ^
$000
544 (90) (740)
246
934 540 (842)
2,046 948 (507)
1,398
scenarios as follows:
/ BPT&BAT
(1
(1
(1
(1
(1
,431)
,255)
,312)
,573)
,115)
1983-96
$15.00
$12.50
$10.29
Note: "High" and "Low" are the highest and lowest pollution control annual costs for the various operating mills
in each model mill Subcategory.
-------
Table VI- 9a. Net present values of non-integrated model mills with and without BAT pollution controls in
Subcategory I-Louisiana under various price scenarios
Model Mill
capacity
TPD
2,200
3,300
5,000
Total mills
*/
- Net present
Scenario
1
2
3
No. of
mills
6
6
9
21
Annual
production
cwt/sugar
000
1,561
2,932
2,796
7,289
value assumes sugar pri
1983-96
$15.00
$12.50
$10.29
Range of
pol 1 ution -- -, Y
control costs Base
high 1,075
low
high 1,894
low
high 3,753
low
ces per hundred weight for the
BAT
718
959
1,451
1,754
2,249
3,719
three
Net Present Value /
Base -/ BAT Base -1
tnnn
281 (86) (645)
166
675 222 (411)
525
1,827 1,304 116
1,782
scenarios as follows:
BAT
(1,275)
(854)
(1,166)
(618)
(415)
72
Note: "High" and "Low" are the highest and lowest pollution control annual costs for the various operating mills in
each model mill subcategory.
-------
Table VI-9b. Net present values of integrated model mills with and without BAT pollution controls in
Subcategory I-Louisiana under various price scenarios
Model Mill
capacity
TPD
2,200
3,300
5,000
Total mills
*/
Net present
Scenario
1
2
3
No. of
mills
6
6
9
21
Annual
production
cwt/sugar
000
1,561
2,932
2,796
7,289
value assumes sugar pri
1983-96
$15.00
$12.50
$10.29
Range of
pol 1 ution
control costs Base
high 1,962
low
high 3,012
low
high 4,880
low
ces per hundred weight for the
BAT
1,595
1,845
2,559
2,863
4,335
4,383
Net Present Value I/
Base -7 BAT Base 3/ BAT
__
-------
Table VI- 10. Net present values of model mills with and without BPT pollution controls in Subcategory Ill-
Hawaii (Hilo Coast) under various price scenarios
Model Mill
capacity
TPD
1,800
(Non-integrated)
3,300
(Integrated)
4,800
( Integrated)
Total mills
No. of
mills
1
2
1
4
Annual
production
cwt/sugar
nnn
DUO
732
2,912
1,954
5,598
*/
Net present value assumes a sugar
Scenario
1
2
3
1977-79
$18.76
$13.76
$11.24
1980-82
$13.76
$11.24
$ 9.05
Range of
pollution 1-7
control costs Base -' BPT
NA 4,094 2,628
High 27,835 21,691
Low -- 21 ,804
NA 41,208 40,346
price per hundred weight for the price
Net Present Value J
Base -1 RPT Base ^
-------
Table VI-llNpt present values of model mills with and without BPT & BAT oollution controls in Subcategory Ill-
Hawaii (Hilo Coast) under various price scenarios
Model Mill
capacity No.
TPD mil
1,800
(Non-integrated) 1
3,300
(Integrated) 2
4,800
(Integrated) 1
Total mills 4
*/
- Net present value
Scenario
1 $13.
2 $11.
3 $ 9.
Annual
of production
Is cwt/sugar
000
732
2,912
1,954
5,598
assumes a sugar
76
74
05
Range of
pollution
control costs
NA
High
Low
NA
price per hundred
Net Present Value _/
Base y BPT&BAT Base -' BPT&BAT Base -/ BPT&BAT
tnnn -
5,172 3,114 2,536 469 194 (5,784)
38,217 28,478 22,800 14,402 9,158 1,914
31,737 -- 16,896 -- 3,765
57,953 52,633 36,368 31,605 17,267 12,759
weight for the three scenarios as follows:
-------
Table VI- 12. Net present values of model mills with and without BPT oollution controls in Subcategory V-
Puerto Rico under various orice scenarios
Model Mill
capacity
TPD
4,500
8,000
Total mills
*/
- Net present
Scenario
1
2
3
No. of
mi 11 s
6
3
9
r r -!T?1 - n SZtfon Net PreS6nt Val U6 ~
production pollution ,, ,._.., ^, ^.
cwt/sugar control costs Base ' RPT Base - RPJ Base -
t
ooo *000
2,932 high 3,279 o7c i nac.
2,409 high 9,325 8,562 5,410 4,564 2,984
low 9,323 6,008
5,341
BPT
(1,299)
(628)
2,056
2,982
value assumes sugar prices per hundred weight for the three scenarios as follows:
1977-79 1980-82
$20.00 $15.00
$15.00 $12.00
$12.50 $10.29
Note: "High" and "low" are the highest and lowest pollution control annual costsfor the various operating mills
in each model mill subcategory.
-------
r
-------
C. Production Effects
The impact of pollution controls on the production of raw cane sugar was
analyzed by the methodology described in Chapter IV. In essence, the
various model plants in the three impacted subcategories were subjected
to a shut down analysis using the discounted cash flow or net present
value method. The cane sugar mills were grouped around the representa-
tive model plants, with production, costs and returns for each mill ad-
justed to the model plant equivalency. Through this procedure, a range
of net present values was approximated for each mill and presented under
"Financial Effects" in the previous section of this Chapter as Tables
VI-7 through VI-13 . These tables show NPV's under various pollution
control and price alternatives.
1. Potential Mill Closures
As discussed under "Price Effects" in this chapter, several price scenarios
were used to analyze the impact of pollution controls. Potential baseline
and pollution control closures under each of three price alternatives are
presented in Tables VI-14 through VI-16 for the three impacted areas. Each
subcategory will be discussed separately.
Subcategory I-Louisiana--Under price scenarios 1 ($20.00 and $15.00/cwt)
and 2 ($15.00 and $12.50/cwt), no baseline closures are expected in
Louisiana by 1977 among the eight plants requiring BPT pollution controls.
If prices fall to scenario 3 level ($12.50 and $10.29/cwt), as many as
six of the eight mills might close under baseline conditions. There is
a somewhat smaller likelihood that a mill integrated with a cane farm
would close than would a similar sized non-integrated mill. Such potential
baseline closures have an estimated annual raw sugar production of 1,258,000
cwt. or 2.3 percent of the 1977 estimated U.S. production. These figures
are shown in Table VI- 14 .
BPT pollution control requirements threaten potential closures when price
scenario 2 ($15.00 and $12.50/cwt) is reached (Table VI-14). One plant
with 151,000 cwt of production (0.3 percent of U.S. production) might close.
Moving to scenario 3 ($12.50 and $10.29/cwt), four to seven of the eight
mills requiring BPT might close, representing 1,223,000 to 1,743,000 cwt
of raw sugar (2.2 to 3.2 percent of U.S. production).
Six of the eight plants requiring BPT controls will also have to install
BAT controls by 1983. Under price scenario 1-2 ($20.00, $15.00 and $12.50/
cwt), no baseline closures are expected. However, under scenarios 1-3 ($20.00
$15.00 and $10.29/cwt), 2-3 ($15.00, $12.50 and $10.29/cwt) and 3-3 ($12.50
$10.29 and $10.29/cwt), four to six mills may close without regard to
pollution control, mills with up to 1,577,000 cwt. of production (2.9
percent of U.S. total production). Interestingly enough the slightly more
VI-21
-------
Table VI- 14.
Estimated closures due to EPT pollution control under alternative price levels for cane sugar mills
by subcategory
I-Louisiana
Price 2 -
Basel ine
Number of olants minimum
Number of plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
BPT
Number of plants minimum
Number of plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
Price 3
Basel ine
Number of plants minimum
Number of plants maximum
Production minimum
RpEroduction maximum
Number of plants minimum
Number of plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
Non-integrated
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
151
3
6
520
1,258
0
4
0
1,223
Integrated
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
0
1,258
1
7
233
1,743
Ill-Hawaii
(Hilo Coast)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
732
732
V-Puerto
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
7
2,932
2,932
0
0
0
0
Percent of
Rico Total I/ U. S. total I/
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
151 0-0.3
7- 10
13
2,932-3,452 5.3-6.3
4,190 7.6
1- 2
5- 8
732- 965 1.3-1.8
1,955-2,475 3.6-4.5
Range of numbers reoresents the differences between integrated and non-integrated mills in Louisiana.
-' Prices per hundredweight of raw sugar for the various scenarios are as follows:
Scenario 1977-79 1980-82
$15.00
$12.50
S12.50
$10.29
-------
profitable integrated mills have lower net present values and are more
likely to close than non-integrated mills because of the much larger
investment base due to the inclusion of land value for the integrated
mill-cane farm. In scenario 2-2 ($15.00, $12.50 and $12.50 cwt), only
one small mill is a likely baseline closure (151,000 cwt or 0.3 percent
of U.S. production). (See Table VI-15).
When BAT requirements are added to the six mills discussed above, possible
impacts occur in scenario 1-2 (Table VI-15). One to three mills with
151,000 to 520,000 cwt of production (0.3 to 0.9 percent of U.S. pro-
duction) might close. Scenario 1-3 might result in four to six closures,
or a loss of 23,000 to 1,577,000 cwt of production (1.4 to 2.9 percent of
U.S. production). The possible impacts of BAT under scenarios 2-2, 2-3
and 3-3 are also shown in Table VI-15. Under these price scenarios, the
number of baseline closures increases and the number due to BAT decreases.
Under 2-2, BAT could affect one to three mills with 151,000 to 520,000
cwt of production (same as scenario 1-2). Scenarios 2-3 and 3-3 could
cause zero to two mills to close with 824,000 cwt of production (1.5 per-
cent of U.S. production).
There are 21 additional mills requiring BAT controls by 1983 which do not
need BPT level controls. In Table VI-16, under price scenarios 0-1
($15.00/cwt) and 0-2 ($12.50/cwt), there would be no expected baseline
closures among these mills. If the price falls to $10.29/cwt by 1983 and
remains at that level (scenario 0-3), then 12 to 21 of these mills may
close with estimated production of 2,513,000 cwt. (4.6 percent of U.S.
production) to 5,697,000 cwt. (10.4 percent of U.S. production). As noted
above, integrated operations have lower NPV's and appear more likely candi-
dates for closure because of larger salvage values. Looking only at the
non-integrated potential baseline closures, as many as 20 mills with a
production of 4,595,000 cwt. might close if price falls to $10.29/cwt by
1977 and remains there or lower. This would represent about 8.4 percent
of U.S. production.
Closures among these 21 mills due to BAT alone are also shown in Table
VI-16. In scenario 0-2, four mills with 679,000 cwt. of production (1.2
percent of U.S. production) may close due to BAT. Under scenario 0-3,
six mills with 2,101,000 cwt. of production (3.8 percent of U.S. production)
might close due to BAT.
Subcategory Ill-Hawaii (Hilo Coast) -- The price alternatives of Subcategory
III show no baseline closures.
When BPT is added, only one model mill representing 732,000 cwt. of pro-
duction or 1.3 percent of U.S. production, appears to be a possible closure.
This would occur only under scenario 3 (See Table VI-14). At any higher
sugar price, NPV's are positive for this model mill.
VI-23
-------
Table VI- 15. Estimated closures due to BPT and BAT pollution controls under alternative price levels
I-Louisiana
Non-integrated Integrated
Price 1-2 -7
Basel ine
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
BPT and BAT
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
Price 1-3
Basel ine
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
BPT and BAT
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production rinimum
Production maximum
Price 2-2
Baseline
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
0
0
0
0
I
3
151
520
4
4
753
753
2
2
824
824
1
1
151
151
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
151
6
6
1,577
1,577
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
151
Ill-Hawaii
(Hilo Coast)
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
732
732
0
0
0
0
V-Puerto Rico Total !/
0
0
0
0
2
5
668
2,123
6
6
2,555
2,555
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2-
6-
668-
2,274-2
10-
10-
3,308-4
3,308-4
1-
1-
732-1
732-1
0-
0-
3
8
819
,643
12
12
,132
,132
3
3
,556
,556
1
1
T51
151
Percent of
U. S. total I/
1.2-1
4.1-4
6.0-7
6.0-7
1.3-2
1.3-2
0-0
0
.5
.8
.5
.5
.8
.8
.3
.3
-------
Table VI-15.( continued)
ro
en
I-Louisiana Ill-Hawaii
Non-integrated Integrated (Hi To Coast) V-Puerto Rico
Price 2-2 (continued
BPT and BAT
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
Price 2-3
Basel ine
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
BPT and BAT
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
Price 3-3
Basel ine
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
BPT and BAT
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
Range of numbers represents the
3
3
520
520
4
4
753
753
2
2
824
324
2
2
718
718
2
2
824
824
differences
0
1
0
151
6
6
1,577
1,577
0
0
0
0
6
6
1,577
1,577
0
0
0
0
between integrated
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
732
732
1
1
732
732
0
0
0
0
and
9 /
- Prices per hundredweight raw sugar for the various scenarios are as
Scenario 1977-79 1980-82
1-2 $20.00 $15.00
1-3 $20.00 $15.00
2-2 $15.00 $12.50
2-3 $15.00 $12.50
3-3 $12.50 $10.29
Note: Production stated in 000 cwt
1983 and
$12.50
$10.29
$12.50
$10.29
$10.29
. of raw sug
after
ar.
2
5
668
2,123
6
5
2,555
2,555
0
0
0
0
6
6
2,555
2,555
0
0
0
0
non-integrated mills
follows:
Total !/
2- 5
6- 9
668-1,188
2,274-2,643
10- 12
10- 12
3,308-4,132
3,308-4,132
1- 3
1- 3
732-1,556
732-1,556
9- 13
9- 13
4,005-4,864
4,005-4,864
2
2
824
824
in Louisiana
Percent of
U, S. total _!/
1.2-2.2
4.3-4.8
6.0-7.5
6.0-7.5
1.3-2.8
1.3-2.8
7.3-8.9
7.3-8.9
1.5
1.5
-------
Table VI- 16. Estimated closures due to BAT (only) pollution controls under alternative price levels
I-Louisiana
Non-integrated Integrated
Ill-Hawaii
(Hilo Coast)
V-Puerto. Rico Total I/
Percent of
U. S. totall/
71
-'
Basel ine
Number plants minimum
Number of plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
BAT
Number plants minimum
Number of plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
Price 0-3
Basel ine
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
0
0
0
0
4
4
679
679
12
12
,513
,513
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
21
21
5,697
5,697
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
679
679
12- 21
12- 21
2,513-5,697
2,513-5,697
1.2
4.6-10.4
4.6-10.4
BAT
Number plants minimum
Number plants maximum
Production minimum
Production maximum
6
6
2,101
2,101
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
2,101
2,101
3.8
3.8
Range of numbers represents the differences between integrated and non-integrated Louisian mills.
2 /
- Prices oer hundredweight of raw sugar for each of the scenarios are as follows:
Scenario 1983 and after
0-1
0-2
0-3
$15.00
$12.50
$10.29
Note: Production stated in 000 cwt of raw sugar.
-------
Table VI-15 shows the effects of adding BAT to the Hilo Coast model
mills. Scenarios 1-3 and 2-3 might cause one mill to closethe same one
referred to under BPT above. This mill would be a baseline closure
under scenario 3-3.
Subcategory V-Puerto Rico -- Seven of the ten Puerto Rican mills needing BPT
controls are possible baseline closure candidates under scenario 3 (Table VI-14 ),
with an estimated production of 2,932,000 cwt. or 5.3 percent of U. S. pro-
duction.
Imposing BPT requirements on Puerto Rican mills would apparently not
cause closures. Price alternative 2 (Table VI-14) shows no likely
closures. Under scenario 3, seven of the ten mills are possible base-
line closures and, therefore, might close without regard to pollution
control. The other three mills should continue to operate even with
BPT requirements.
It should be noted that one small mill in Puerto Rico does not fit any
of the model mills and that insufficient information is available on
which to form a firm judgment. It was assumed that this plant would
close under baseline conditions at all price levels.
Nine of the Puerto Rican mills have BAT requirements in addition to BPT.
Table VI-15 shows that BAT might cause closure of two to five of these
mills (an estimated 668,000 to 2,123,000 cwt of raw sugar, or 1.2 to 3.9
percent of U.S. production) under scenario 1-2 and 2-2. In scenarios 1-3,
2-3 and 3-3, six of the nine mills are potential baseline closures . No
closures could be attributed to BAT. Thus, the maximum closures attributable
to BAT would be five mills with 3.9 percent of U. S. production.
2. Effects on Industry Growth
The Environmental Protection Agency has not furnished incremental pollution
control investment and annual operating costs for new source performance
standards (NSPS) for cane sugar mills. Thus, it is not possible to perform
a meaningful quantitative impact analysis to determine the effect of NSPS
on new mill construction . At the same time, some tentative evaluations
may be made based upon observable qualitative and quantitative factors.
Before offering such evaluations, it is necessary to note several variables
which will undoubtedly influence decisions to construct new cane sugar
milling capacity in the United States. These variables include, but are
not limited to, the following:
VI-27
-------
1. NSPS effluent guidelines and the costs of installing and
operating the necessary technology.
2. Price of raw sugar.
3. Growth of cane sugar milling capacity in other countries.
4. Response of beet sugar and corn syrup producers to cane sugar
prices.
5. Available land for expanding sugar cane production in the U.S.
For purposes of this analysis, the Effluent Guidelines Division of EPA
has estimated that NSPS costs will be equal to or less than BPT plus BAT
costs for each category. At the same time, future prices are highly un-
certain and must be treated under various price scenarios,' as in the pre-
vious BPT and BAT analysis. Beyond these two parameters (NSPS costs and
the alternative price scenarios), further quantitative analysis is
severely limited.
Some general observations about world capacity expansion and beet sugar
and corn syrup responses to higher sugar prices were presented in Chapter
III, with the conclusion that sugar prices would probably remain above an
equilibrium level until after 1980. If this judgment is correct, then
prices may remain high enough to encourage new U.S. mill capacity in those
geographic regions where sugar cane production can be expanded.
In Hawaii (both Subcategories III and IV), the likelihood of expanding
sugar cane acreage is very small. However, there is milling capacity
expansion underway in at least three of the four Hilo Coast mills expected
to be operating in 1977. This expansion will offset the loss of production
resulting from the closure of smaller Hilo Coast mills. Effluent control
facilities will reportedly be installed for the expanded capacity, indi-
cating that the mill owners expect the investment in pollution control
facilities to be economically feasible.
Louisiana has also experienced the recent closure of smaller mills. No
plans for'expansion are known at this time, and it is doubtful that Louisiana
sugar cane farms would expand very much beyond the 311,000 acres harvested
in 1972-73.
Puerto Rico has witnessed a sharp decline in acreage harvested, dropping
from 391,000 acres in 1952 to 152,000 acres in 1972. It is reasonable to
believe that very high sugar prices could stimulate the redevelopment of
some cane farms, but existing milling capacity could be expected to absorb
any such increased production.
This leaves the Florida-Texas region (Subcategory II) as the area most
likely to construct new cane sugar mills. The most recent construction
in the U.S. was a Texas mill, built in 1973. Florida has also expanded
capacity during the 1960's and early 1970's. These new mills, larger in
VI-28
-------
size than mills in Louisiana, reportedly meet proposed BPT and BAT pollution
control standards and, based on 1973 model plant analysis, appear highly
profitable. Therefore, it can be concluded that NSPS costs no greater than
BPT plus BAT costs would probably not deter further mill construction in
Florida and Texas unless the price of raw sugar falls below ($.10 (1973
dollars).
A rough comparison of BPT plus BAT investment to model plant replacement
investment (1973 dollars) appears in Table VI-17. The replacement invest-
ment values range generally from $200 to $300 per annual ton of sugar.
The BPT plus BAT investment shown in Table VI-17 represents the highest
estimated cost on a model mill equivalency basis for any operating mill
in each subcategory for which costs were furnished. The percentages of
pollution control investment to replacement investment range from 8 percent
in Puerto Rico and Louisiana to 16 percent in Hawaii (Hilo Coast). These
values are probably overstated in that installing pollution control facilities
at the time of new construction would afford some savings in investment as
compared to the modification of existing mills.
In summary, NSPS costs not in excess of BPT and BAT costs would not appear-
to hinder new construction in Florida and Texas. Effects are more doubtful
in Louisiana, Hawaii and Puerto Rico, where expanded production'does not
seem likely but where new or expanded mills might be constructed to replace
older, smaller mills. At 1973 prices or lower, NSPS could delay new con-
struction.
D. Employment Effects
Cane sugar plants do not employ a large labor force for the size of their
output measured in dollars or tons. Plants generally employ 100 to 150
people. Under the lowest price scenario, it would appear that the maximum
number of jobs lost due to mill closure under pollution control would be
approximately 1,750 jobs. At the higher price levels, the employment
impact would be minor.
The job loss would be concentrated in Louisiana and Puerto Rico. Up to 1250
jobs in Louisiana and 500 jobs in Puerto Rico might be lost. The possibili-
ties for absorption into other sections have not been identified, but with
many small mills in Louisiana, the potential for consolidating into larger
mills exists, which would create some new jobs. Further, the economic
development along the Mississippi River suggests the creation of new jobs
within the general area. The potential for mill consolidation in Puerto
Rico is apparently very low, consequently, new mill jobs are not likely.
Thus, the loss of jobs in sugar cane mills will not materially increase
unemployment rates.
VI-29
-------
Table VI-17. Comparison of maximum BPT plus BAT investment costs
with 1973 estimated replacement investment for model plants
P.C. Inv.
Estimated Maximum as percent
Subcategory Replacement BPT + BAT of Replace-
(TPD capacity) Investment Investment ment Inv.
I- Louisiana
2,200 3,000 366 12
3,300 3,800 319 8
5,000 4,900 488 10
III- Hawaii (Hilo Coast)
1,800 12,000 1,744 15
3,300 17,000 2,743 16
4,800 21,000 3,171 15
V- Puerto Rico
4,500 6,000 506 8
8,000 8,500 996 12
VI-30
-------
E. Balance of Payment Effects
The U.S. sugar industry imports about 45 percent of its sugar supply;
thus, any loss of U.S. production could increase imports. Whether or
not this will occur depends upon the response of the domestic industry.
Corn sweetener production and capacity are being expanded and could off-
set some if not all of the production decline attributable to pollution
controls alone. Too, mills and production are being reorganized as
evidenced in Hawaii, and will expand plants to replace smaller, less
efficient plants. Whether this would occur in the face of pollution con-
trol induced closures has not been determined, but it seems possible that
such reorganization would occur without pollution control requirements.
The reorganization of mills and production would appear to be more possible
under the scenario of prices remaining above $12.50 per hundredweight.
Should prices fall below this level, this prospect does not appear as
likely. In response to lower prices near 1973 levels, the production and
milling industry would face significant declines in output due to closures;
however, closures due to pollution control per se would not be as extensive.
If the maximum amount of lost production due to BPT under the lowest price
situation was replaced entirely by imports, the U.S. payments outflow
increase would be only about $.5 million. It should be noted that output
losses attributable to baseline closures would amount to an additional
$1.0 million.
Even under the worst situation, then, pollution control induced increases
in trade outflows will not be large relative to U.S. trade. Under higher
price situations, the impact on the balance of payments created by pollu-
tion control is negligible.
F. Community Impacts
Community impacts will be primarily located in Louisiana and Puerto Rico.
The impacts in each area appear to be different.
In Louisiana, the geographic dispersion of sugar cane mills suggests that
some production of closed mills could be transferred to other mills.
The extent of such transfers may be constrained by ownership patterns
(single plant firms) and the availability of milling capacity. Although
Louisiana mills, as a whole, normally have some excess capacity, some mill
expansion may be necessary to accommodate production transfers. A more
precise answer on production transfers would require plant by plant analysis.
However, in general, it appears that some of this production could be
transferred.
VI-31
-------
The net reduction in production could lead to some indirect employment
impacts on the impact communities. However, of greater importance are
those impacts resulting from farm incomes if sugar cane can no longer be
grown. At current price levels, the loss of sugar cane as a crop would
greatly reduce farm income. However, during the period up to 1973, sugar
cane in Louisiana was not a terribly superior crop, as land prices for
sugar cane land were reported to be only slightly higher than other agri-
cultural land.
Alternative land uses in Louisiana include soybeans and pasture. These
crops would produce a smaller farm income and thus the economic base of
the community would be reduced, but not eliminated.
The Puerto Rico situation is believed to be different. Due to the location
of mills, the prospect of the remaining mills absorbing lost production
does not appear likely. Community impacts are expected both from unemploy-
ment and loss of farm income. A loss of sugar cane processing facilities
will mean that growers will have to seek alternative crops. A wide range
of tropical crops can be grown, but it is expected that these crops will
be of lower value and thus a decrease in farm income is expected. These
factors suggest that communities dislocations will likely be present in
Puerto Rico due to imposition of water pollution controls.
G. Other Impacts
Sugar refiners could be potentially impacted if they are unable to obtain
raw sugar supplies; however, it seems probable that imports can be obtained
by processors for refining.
VI-32
-------
VII. LIMITS TO ANALYSIS
A. General Accuracy
Data used were both of primary and secondary nature from industry,
contracted government studies, and regularly reported government
services. Direct contacts with trade associations and economic
analysts were conducted.
Throughout the study an effort was made to evaluate data and other infor-
mation used and to update these materials wherever possible. Data were
reworked so as to make their presentation clearer in light of the purpose
of this report and its intended use.
This analysis represents a systematic evaluation of the impact of effluent
limitation guidelines on the sugar cane industry, based upon the given
data and the step by step methodology described in Chapter IV. However,
it should be recognized that the world and U.S. sugar economy is in a
state of flux because of very high prices and the prospect of the United
States drastically changing its sugar policy. Consequently future con-
ditions and responses in the U.S. industry are quite uncertain. Various
price alternatives were analyzed. Different results were obtained depending
on the price. The choice of a future price pattern is quite important in
determining the impact of pollution controls.
B. Possible Range of Error
Different data series and different sections of the analysis will have
different possible ranges of error. Estimated error ranges have an order
of magnitude as follows:
Error Range
(«)
1. For number and location of plants +_ 1
2. Plant capacities and throughput +_ 10
3. Sunk investment +. 20
4. Plant operating costs +_ 10
5. Incremental pollution control costs +_ 20
6. Future plant numbers and capacity +_ 25
VII-1
-------
Error estimates were not made for prices of sugar, plant closures and
production changes. The interrelationship of these factors coupled
with the uncertainty regarding future sugar prices are not conducive
to error estimation. Projections of price at this juncture could be
+ 100 percent in error. Within a price pattern alternative, the
estimate of plant closures is believed to be within + 15 percent.
It was impossible to estimate actual net production Tosses in terms of
the total sweetener supply. Mill expansion, cane sugar production
reorganization, and greater use of corn sweeteners have the potential
of absorbing pollution control induced production losses so that the
estimated production impact could be 100 percent in error.
C. Critical Assumptions
A number of critical assumptions are present. The major ones are
briefly discussed below:
Future Industry Structure - The number and size of cane mills were
assumed to be similar to the existing situation, assuming that plants
in Hawaii would close and expand as reported. With expectations of
higher prices over the next six years, closure of smaller plants and
expansion of larger plants may occur in anticipation of the need to
be more competitive with world producers during the 1980's and after.
Plant Capacity and Throughput - Capacities and throughput of existing plants
were assumed to be as stated in Chapters I and II. Available data on these
parameters differed. Also interpretations of these values may have differed
between the pollution control cost estimates and production profiles. It was
assumed that the intepretations were consistent.
Technology - No oroductivity gains were assumed during the period of
analysis. New technology may result in productivity gains.
Cost Levels - It was assumed that real costs would not increase during
the period of analysis from 1973 levels. It may be possible that real
wage rates and energy costs will increase. If such increases occur, any
oroductivity gains, through technology, could be offset or even reduced.
Sugar Savings - The benefits of sugar savings in Puerto Rico were taken
as given by EPA, adjusted to 1973 sugar prices. No sugar savings were
taken for any of the other sub-categories.
Land Costs for Mud Disposal - In Subcategory III (Hawaii-Hilo Coast),
land costs for mud disposal represent the income lost from land taken
out of production. It was assumed that additional acres could not be
brought into production to offset this loss. In Louisiana and Puerto
Rico, mills were assumed to have disposal sites so that cane land
would not be lost.
VII-2
-------
Model Plant Financial Profiles - Model plant financial profiles were
developed from various published and unpublished sources. These cost
estimates may not reflect recent pollution control installations but it
was assumed that pollution control costs for the incremental require-
ments to meet the guidelines were additive to the model plant profiles
developed in Chapter II.
Puerto Rico - The financial profiles for Puerto Rico were assumed to be
representative. They were based upon the best data available to the
contractor. Nonetheless, these data were not consistent. Further,
these mills are nationalized and are apparently subsidized. It was assumed
that further support would not be made to cover pollution controls in
estimating plant closures. However, based on apparent experience, the
Commonwealth might choose to provide further support. The net result is
that the Puerto Rico analysis is the weakest because of its questionable
financial data.
D. Remaining Questions
The major remaining questions concern the levels of future sugar prices
and the form of future U. S. sugar policy. Implicit in this are ques-
tions regarding world sugar consumption and per capita incomes, the
ability and willingness of foreign producers to expand sugar production,
and their ability to remain as lower cost producers than the United States.
With apparent management limitations and possible wage increases, their
cost advantage may be eroded.
Another question of importance is the impact of new source performance
standards for cane sugar mills. NSPS investment and annual operating
costs have not yet been definitely established by EPA. Only a general,
qualitative evaluation of this impact was included in Chapter VI. Until
precise data on costs are provided, the impact of NSPS on industry growth
must remain questionable.
VII-3
-------
APPENDIX
-------
Appendix Table 1.Subcategory ILouisiana sugarcane companies, mill
location and daily capacity
Company Name
Cajun Sugar Co-op., Inc.
La Fourche Sugar Co. (Leighton
Factory)
Sterling Sugars, Inc.
South Coast Corp. (Raceland
Factory)
Evan Hall Sugar Co-op., Inc.
M. A. Patout & Son, Ltd.
(Enterprise Factory)
Caldwell Sugars Co-op., Inc.
Iberia Sugar Co-op., Inc.
St. James Sugar Co-op., Inc.
Dugas & LeBlanc, Ltd. (Westfield
Factory)
Glenwood Co-op., Inc.
Harry L. Laws & Co., Inc.
(Cinclare Central Factory)
Supreme Sugar Co., Inc. (Div. of
Archer Daniels Midland Co.)
Southdown Lands, Inc.
South Coast Corp. (Oaklawn Fact.)
St. Mary Sugar Co-op., Inc.
Lula Factory, Inc. (Savoia)
Southdown Lands, Inc. (Armant
Factory)
Levert-St. John, Inc.
Southdown Lands, Inc. (Greenwood
Factory)
Valentine Sugars, Inc.
South Coast Corp. (Terrbonne
Factory)
Cora-Texas Mfg. Co., Inc.
Helvetia Sugar Co-op., Inc.
Meeker Sugar Co-op., Inc.
A. Wilbert's Sons Lbr. & Shingle
Co. (Myrtle Grove Factory)
Billeaud Sugar Co.
Louisa Sugar Co-op., Inc.
Jeanerette Sugar Co. (Co-op.)
South Coast Corp. (Georgia Fact.)
Alma Plantation, Ltd.
Breaux Bridge Sugar Co-op., Inc.
Smithfield Sugar Cooperative, Inc.
Mill Location
New Iberia
Thibodaux
Franklin
Raceland
McCall
Jeanerette
Thibodaux
New Iberia
St. James
Paincourtville
Napoleonville
Brusly
Supreme
Houma
Franklin
Jeanerette
Belle Rose
Vacherie
St. Marti nvi He
Thibodaux
Lockport
Montegut
White Castle
Convent
Le Compte
Plaquemine
Broussard
Louisa
Jeanerette
Mathews
Lakeland
Breaux Bridge
Port Allen
Capacity!/
(TPD)
6,000
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
5,000
4,800
4,250
4,200
4,200
4,200
4,200
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
3,800
3,500
3,500
3,400
3,300
3,000
3,000
3,000
3,000
2,800
2,750
2,600
2,500
2,400
2,400
2,400
2,400
-------
Appendix Table 1.
(Continued)
Company Name
J. Supple's Sons Planting Co.,
Ltd. (Catherine Factory)
William T. Burton Industries,
Inc. (Cedar-Grove Factory)
Caire & Graugnard (Columbia
Factory)
Frisco Cane Co., Inc. (San
Francisco Factory)
Columbia Sugar Company
Louisiana State University
(Audubon Sugar Factory)
TOTAL DAILY CAPACITY
Mill Location
Bayou Goula
White Castle
Edgard
Reserve
Franklin
Baton Rouge
Capacity!/
(TPD)
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
360
134,960
I/ Gross cane in short tons per day.
-------
Lecompte
Port Allen -J'.Baton Rouge
Brusly
.Beau Bridge Plaquemme
Lake
Pontcha rtra in
Bayou Goula *t
St. Martinville White Castle (2)
Belle Rose
Paincourtville
ew
Orleans
dgar
Vacherie
(2) New Iberia *
Jeanerette (3)
Napoleonville
-------
Apoendix Table 2. Subcategory II--F1orida and Texas sugarcane
companies, location and daily capacity
Company Name
Gulf and Western Food Products Co.
United States Sugar Corporation
United States Sugar Corporation
Sugar Cane Growers Cooperative of
Florida
Talisman Sugar Corporation
Texas
Atlantic Sugar Association
Osceola Farms Company
Glades County Sugar Growers
Co-op. Assoc.
TOTAL DAILY CAPACITY
Mill Location
South Bay
Bryant
Clewiston
Belle Glade
Belle Glade
Harlingen
Belle Glade
Pakokee
Moore Haven
Capacity!/
(TPD)
12,125
11,000
11,000
10,000
10,000
8,500
5,730
5,500
4,500
78,355
I/ Gross cane in short tons per day.
-------
Lake Okeechobee
Miami
Moore Haven
Clewiston
Canal Point
Bryant
'Belle Glade
7South Bay
Figure 2. Location of cane sugar mills in Florida.
-------
Appendix Table 3. Subcategory III and IV -- Hawaii sugarcane companies
mill, location, and daily capacity
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
* 8
9
10
11
* 12
13
14
15
* 16
17
* 18
* 19
* 20
Company Name
Hawaiian Commercial Sugar Co.
Oahu Sugar Co.
Waialua Sugar Company, Ltd.
Puna Sugar Company
Hawaiian Commercial Sugar Co.
Li hue Plantation Company
Kekaha Sugar Company, Ltd.
Laupahoehoe Sugar Company
Kohala Sugar Company
Kau Sugar Company
Pioneer Mill Company, Ltd.
Honokaa Sugar Company
Olokele Sugar Company, Ltd.
Grove Farm Co. , Inc.
McBryde Sugar Company, Ltd.
Hilo Coast Processing Co. (Co-op)
Wailuku Sugar Company
Hilo Coast Processing Co. (Co-op)
Hilo Coast Processing Co. (Co-op)
Hilo Coast Processing Co. (Co-op)
Total Daily Capacity
Mill Location
Puunene, Maul
Waipahu, Oahu
Waialua, Oahu
Keaau, Hawaii
Paia, Maui
Li hue, Kauai
Kekaha, Kauai
Ookala, Hawaii
Hawi , Hawaii
Pahala, Hawaii
Lahaina, Maui
Haina, Hawaii
Kaumakani , Kauai
Koloa, Kauai
El eel e, Kauai
Wainaku, Hawaii
Wailuku, Maui
Pepeekeo, Hawaii
Papaikou, Hawaii
Hakalau, Hawaii
Capacity I/
(TPD)
6,500
5,000
4,600
4,500
4,000
3,850
3,000
3,000
2,800 II
2,800
2,700
2,700
2,700
2,600
2,000 3/
1 ,850 I/
1,800
1 ,800
1,800
1,560 I/
61 ,560
Net cane in short tons per day
2/
Scheduled to close, December, 1975
3/
Scheduled to close, December, 1974
Source: Gilmore Manual -- Louisiana - Florida and Hawaii Sugar Manual
Fargo, N.D., 1973 and industry sources
* Subcategory III (Hilo Coast) mills.
-------
Appendix Table 4. Subcategory III and IV -
coroorate ownership with mill
Hawaii sugar cane comoanies by
location and size
I.
II.
Ill
IV.
V.
VI.
Alexander & Baldwin, Ltd.
1. Hawaiian Commercial Sugar Co.
2. Hawaiian Commercial Sugar Co.
3. McBryde Sugar Co., Ltd.
4. Grove Farm Company, Inc.
Total
Amfac
1. Kekaha Sugar Company, Ltd.
2. Oahu Sugar Co.
3. Pioneer Mill Company, Ltd.
4. Puna Sugar Company
5. Li hue Plantation Company
Total
C. Brewer & Company (Hawaiian Sugar Co.)
1. Olokele Sugar Co., Ltd.
2. Wailuku Sugar Company
3. Kau Sugar Company
Total
Castle & Cooke, Inc.
1. Kohala Sugar Company
2. Waialua Sugar Co. , Ltd.
Total
Theo H. Davies & Company
1. Honokaa Mill Company
2. Laupahoehoe Sugar Co.
Total
Hilo Coast Processing Company (Co-op) !/
1. Hilo Coast Processing Company
2. Hilo Coast Processing Company
3. Hilo Coast Processing Company
4. Hilo Coast Processing Company
Total
Paia, Maui
Puunene, Maui
El eel e, Kauai
Koloa, Kauai
Kekaha, Kauai
Wapahu, Oahu
Lahana, Maui
Keaau, Hawaii
Lahue, Kauai
Kaumakani , Kauai
Wailuku, Maui
Pahala, Hawaii
Hawi , Hawaii
Waialua, Oahu
Haina, Hawaii
Ookala, Hawaii
Papaikou, Hawaii
Papaikou, Hawaii
Pepeekeo, Hawaii
Hakalau, Hawaii
Wainaku, Hawaii
4,000
6,500
2,000
2,600
15,100
3,000
5,000
2,700
4,500
3,850
19,050
2,700
1,800
2,800
7,300
2,800
4,600
7,400
2,700
3,000
5,700
1 ,800
1 ,800
1 ,800
1,560
1,800
6,960
50 percent co-op ownership by Mauna Kea Sugar Co., a plantation,
which is a subsidiary of C. Brewer & Co.
Subcategory III (Hilo Coast) mills.
-------
-Lihue
~>«v. j
/
^Kekaha\ ^Kaumakani
jleele
Lahaina
Wailuku
Paia
/Ookala
iHakalau
Pepeekeo
$yPapaikou
Wainaku
Figure 3. Location of cane sugar mills in Hawaii.
Hilo Coast
mill locations
-------
Appendix Table 5. Subcategory V--Puerto Rico sugarcane companies,
mill location and daily capacity
Company Name
Central Guanica
Aquirre Sugar Company
Central Coloso
Central Mercedita
Central Cambalache
Plata Sugar Company
Central Roig
Central Eureka
Central Igualdad
Central Fajardo
Central San Francisco
TOTAL DAILY CAPACITY
Mill Location
Ensenada
Aguirre
Coloso
Mercedita
Arecibo
San Sebastian
Humacao
Mayaguez
Mayaguez
Fajardo
Yauco
Capacity!/
(TPD)
8,600
7,500
6,250
5,500
5,000
5,000
4,500
4,000
4,000
3,500
1,200
55,050
I/ Gross short tons cane per day.
Source: Industry sources.
-------
Ensenada
Aguirre
Figure 4. Location of cane sugar mills in Puerto Rico.
-------
Appendix Table 6. Estimated sales, costs and before tax earnings oer
hundredweight raw suqar for model Louisiana mills, 1973
Capacity Gross Tons
f^ 1 T"V
Cane/Day
Returns
Raw sugar
Molasses
Total returns
Direct cost
Cost of cane
Cost of milling
Total direct costs
Indirect cost
Total operating cost
Depreciation
Interest
Total costs
Before tax profit
Small
2,200
10.29
1. 18
11.47
7.81
2.95
10.76
.74
11.50
. 16
.01
11.67
9.20)
Medium
3,300
$T)^ T f^\Ji7^~ 7*3 IT/ Gil /YD 1*
10.29
1. 18
11.47
7.59
2.85
10.44
.69
11. 13
.22
.02
11.37
. 10
La rge
5,000
10.29
1. 10
11.39
7.33
2.70
10.03
.60
10.63
.26
.02
10.91
.48
-------
Appendix Table 7. Estimated sales, costs and before tax earnings per
hundredweight raw sugar for model Florida Mills, 1973
Capacity Gross Tons Cane /Day
Returns
Raw sugar
Molasses
Total returns
Direct cost
Cost of cane
Cost of milling
Total direct costs
Indirect cost
Total operating cost
Depreciation
Interest
Total costs
Before tax profit
Small
6,000
10.29
.92
11.21
6.21
2.46
8.67
.76
9.43
.23
. 14
9.80
1.41
Large
10,000
rr-f- T"^ 1X7 Qii
-------
Appendix Table 8a. Estimated sales, costs and before tax earnings per
hundredweight of raw sugar for model mills in
Subcategory Ill-Hawaii (Hilo Coast) 1973
Net TPD
Returns
Raw sugar
Molasses
Processing fees
Total returns
Direct cost
Cost of cane
Cost of milling
Total direct costs
Indirect costs
Total operating cost
Depreciation
Interest
Total costs
Before tax profit
1,800
9.05
.46
9.51
7.10
1.50
8.60
.55
9.15
.20
.08
9.43
.08
3,300
$npv* pwt" v* 3u/ c i inx v*
[Jcr cwu r aW bUydr
9.05
.46
.41
9.92
6.53
1.68
8.21
.90
9.11
.26
.11
9.48
.44
4,800
9.05
.48
.41
9.92
6.53
1.34
7.87
.90
8.77
.23
.10
9.10
.82
-------
Appendix Table 8b. Estimated sales costs and before tax earnings per
hundredweight of raw sugar for model mills in
Subcategory IV-Hawaii (Other), 1973
Net TPD
Returns
Raw sugar
Molasses
Total returns
Direct costs
Cost of cane
Cost of mil 1 ing
Total direct costs
Indirect cost
Total operating cost
Depreciation
Interest
Total costs
Before tax profit
1,800
9.05
.87
9.92
7.50
1.58
9.08
.57
9.65
.22
.11
9.98
(.06)
3,300
$nov p wt* v^u/ ci in A v*
PCI LWU raw buya r
9.05
.87
9.92
7.50
1.16
8.66
.51
9.17
.22
.15
9.54
.38
4,800
9.05
.87
9.92
7.50
1.02
8.52
.45
8.97
.22
.19
9.38
.54
-------
Appendix Table 9. Estimated sales, costs and before tax earnings per
hundredweight of raw sugar for model mills in
Subcategory V-Puerto Rican Mills, 1973
Capacity Gross Tons
Cane/Day
Returns
Raw sugar
Molasses
Total returns
Direct cost
Cost of cane
Cost of milling
Total direct costs
Indirect cost
Total operating cost
Depreciation
Interest
Total costs
Before tax profit
Medium
4,500
t nov f*\
P PCI L.
10.29
1.60
11.89
6.35
4.30
10.65
1.01
11.66
.21
.09
11.96
(.07)
Large
8,000
l»/t" V3.UJ C I I f"l 3. V* « _ _
10.29
1.60
11.89
6.36
2.94
9.30
.78
10.08
.22
.10
10.40
1.49
-------
BIBLIOGRAPHIC DATA ' KL'P°'t No- 2'
SHEET EPA-230/1 -74-032
. 1 i.lc and >ubutle
Economic Analysis of Proposed Effluent Guidelines for Sugar-
cane Milling Industry
. Auihor(s)
Milton L. David, C. Clyde Jones, Robert J. Buzenberg
9. Performing Organization. Name and Address
Development Planning and Research Associates, Inc.
P. 0. Box 727
Manhattan, Kansas 66502
2. Sponsoring Organization Name and Address
Environmental Protection Agency
Waterside Mall
4th and M Street, S. W.
.Washington, D. C. 20460
3. Recipient's Accession No.
5. Report Uatcjan- ^75
(Date of completion)
6.
8. Performing Organization Reft.
No-138
10. Ptojcct/l ask/Uork b'nit No.
Task Order No. 5
11. Conttacc/Gram No.
Contract No.
68-01-1533
13. Type ot Report & Period
Covered
Final Report
14.
15. Supplementary Notes
16. Abstracts jhe sugarcane milling industry, SIC 2061, is composed of 59 firms operating 79
mills in Louisiana, Florida, Texas, Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Mills demonstrate economies
of scale, with the large Florida mills having the highest profit levels. Small mills in
other areas appear unprofitable under 1973 prices. Raw sugarcane prices have been
relatively stable until 1974, when they reached record levels. Price declines are ex-
pected, but a new equilibrium is not expected prior to 1980. The impact of pollution
controls was estimated under six price scenarios. An estimated maximum of 4.5 percent
of U.S. production might close due to BPT controls and up to 4.8 percent of U.S. pro-
duction might close due to BPT plus BAT. controls. Another 3.8 percent might close due
to BAT controls alone. The impact of NSPS is difficult to assess, but at prices above
$.10 per pound, little impact is expected. The ultimate impact will depend on future
sugar prices, the projection of which is a critical assumption.
17. Key VorJs aro Document Analysis. 17a. Descriptors
Pollution, water pollution, industrial wastes, sugar, sugarcane, sugarcane mills,
economic, economic analysis, discounted cash flow, demand, supply, price, fixed costs,
variable costs, community, production, capacity, fixed investment.
17b. Idcntif iers/Open-EndeJ Terms
05 Behavioral and Social Sciences, C - Economics
06 Biological and Medical Sciences, H - Food
I7e.
TI FUU/Or.iup
16.
A-. ji, aoi 1 1: y it-it*, r.icnt
National Technical Information Service
Springfield, Virginia 22151
19. ><., ur-:i (. 1.1
20. >n. ur it y v 1.1
Pa,-.c
r\n '.--
s» Ini-.
TI! P
21.
22.
163
i flUC
------- |