EPA-905/5-76-003-A
                     STUDY DOCUMENT NUMBER 3

                    FINANCIAL IMPACT OF THE
        PROPOSED AND REVISED SULFUR DIOXIDE REGULATIONS
                      IN THE  STATE  OF  OHIO
                         PREPARED  FOR

            THE  U,S,  ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
              OFFICE OF PLANNING AND EVALUATION
                              BY

                 TEMPLE, BARKER & SLOANE,  INC,
                       15 WALNUT STREET
             WELLESLEY HILLS, MASSACHUSETTS  02181
                         AUGUST 27,  1976

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                           PREFACE
          This report has been submitted to the United States
Environmental Protection Agency in partial fulfillment of Con-
tract No. 68-01-2803 by Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc., 15 Wal-
nut Street, Wellesley Hills, Massachusetts.
                                                           TBS

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                      TABLE OF CONTENTS


CHAPTER                                                 PAGE
   1     INTRODUCTION AND CONCLUSIONS                    1
   2     METHODOLOGY AND SCOPE OF ANALYSIS               7
   3     FINANCIAL IMPACT OF THE REVISED SULFUR         14
         DIOXIDE REGULATIONS
              Consumer Charges and Operating Revenues   14
              Average Residential Electric Bill         18
              Operation and Maintenance Expenses        19
              Capital Expenditure Requirements          21
              External Financing Requirements           24
              Impacts on Municipal and Cooperative      33
                Utilities
   4     FINANCIAL IMPACT OF THE ORIGINALLY PROPOSED    35
         SULFUR DIOXIDE REGULATIONS
              Consumer Charges and Operating Revenues   35
              Average Residential Electric Bill         38
              Operation and Maintenance Expenses        38
              Capital Expenditure Requirements          40
              External Financing Requirements           40

APPENDIX
   A     SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL DATA                      46
   B     COSTS OF POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGIES          64

TECHNICAL APPENDIX
                                                           TBS

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                         CHAPTER 1
               INTRODUCTION AND CONCLUSIONS
          This report presents the  direct  financial  effects
of proposed sulfur dioxide regulations  on  the  electric power
consumers and the electric utility  industry  in the State of
Ohio.  The specific pollution control regulations  considered
in this report are the regulations  covering  sulfur dioxide
(S00) emissions at existing  fossil  fuel generating plants pub-
   ^J               • — '" .-™-...^ •-•-.--.-..•.-• .
lished by the U.S. Environmental Protection  Agency  (EPA). Re-
gion V, on November 10,  1975, and revised  on August  27, 1976.
The impacts of the S00 regulations  proposed  originally and the
                     ^j
revisions are analyzed separately.in this  report.  Throughout
this report, the terms "S00  regulations" and "regulations"
                           ฃi
refer only to the SO2 regulations applicable to existing fossil-
fuel generating stations.

          The impacts of the SO0 regulations are based primarily
                               ฃ
upon the results of EPA-sponsored research by  three  firms:
1) engineering cost studies  of air  pollution control equipment
on Ohio power plants by  PEDCO Environmental  Specialists, Inc.;
2) least-cost optimization analysis to  estimate compliance strat-
egies by Energy and Environmental Analysis,  Inc. (EEA); and 3)
economic and financial evaluations  based on  those  cost and com-
pliance estimates by Temple, Barker & Sloane,  Inc.  (TBS).

CONCLUSIONS

          The major conclusions in  this report are  presented
below and summarized in  Table 1.  Unless otherwise  noted, all
costs are in constant 1975 dollars.
 The original and revised SO2 regulations were published in the Federal
 Register,  Volume 40, Number 2173 November 10, 1975, and Volume 41,
 Number 168, August 27,  1976, respectively.

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                             -2-
          Assuming implementation of the revised S02  regula-
tions, the impact on the investor-owned electric utilities
and their customers would be as follows:
          Average consumer charges and utility
          operating revenues would increase 2.9   ^
          percent in 1980 and 1.8 percent in 1985.
          This would cause the average residential
          customer's monthly electric bill to in-
          crease $0.88 ($30.33 to $31.21) by 1980
          and $0.68 ($37.57 to $38.25) by 1985.
          Including the effects of inflation, the
          increase would be $1.17 in 1980 and $1.13
          in 1985.

          Annual operating and maintenance expense
          (including fuel) would increase about  1.1
          percent in 1980 and 0.9 percent in 1985.
          The annual increase by 1985 will be $30.1
          million.

          Capital expenditures (defined as cash
          outlays and allowance for funds used
          during construction (AFDC)), would in-
          crease by $542 million during the period
          1976-1979.  This is a 10.7 percent in-
          crease over the baseline capital expen-
          ditures of $5,081 million which will be
          required for this period in the absence
          of any SO0 regulations.
                   ฃi

          External financing required to support
          these capital expenditures would increase
          by $497 million over the original exter-
          nal financing requirement of $3,938 mil-
          lion for the period 1976-1979, a 12.6
          percent increase.
2
 The decreasing relative effect of the SO2 expenditures is due to
 inflation and increasing costs of operating the utilities.

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                             -3-
     •    Of the eight major investor-owned utili-
          ties in Ohio, five could reasonably be
          expected to have little or no difficulty
          in obtaining financing for the equipment
          required by the revised regulations.  Two
          of the utilities, Ohio Power and Ohio Edi-
          son, may have some difficulty obtaining
          debt financing but should be in a posi-
          tion to issue additional common stock to
          cover the cost, if necessary.  One utility,
          Ohio Valley Electric, would not be af-
          fected by the revised regulations.
          The impacts of the revised SO- regulations on the

municipal and cooperative utilities in Ohio would be:
          Average consumer charges for municipal
          and cooperative customers (almost en-
          tirely residential) would increase by
          2.9 percent in 1980 and 2.1 percent in
          1985.   The average monthly residential
          bill in 1980 would increase by $0.66,
          from $22.60 to $23.26.

          Capital expenditures would increase by
          $24.1 million and external financing re-
          quirements would increase by approxi-
          mately $16.8 million over the period
          1976-1979.

          Annual operating and maintenance costs
          would increase by $3.2  million per year,
          Had the original proposed SO0 regulations been
                                      ฃi
implemented, the effect on investor-owned utilities would

have been:
          Average consumer charges and utility
          operating revenues would have increased
          7.9 percent in 1980 and 4.9 percent in
          1985.  The average residential customer's
          monthly electric bill would have increased
          $2.40 ($30.33 to $32.73) in 1980 and $1.83
          ($37.57 to $39.40) in 1985.  Including the
          effects of inflation, the increase would
          have been $3.19 in 1980 and $3.06 in 1985.
                                                           TBS

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                             —4—
     •    Capital expenditures,  including  allowance  for
          funds used during construction  (AFDC),  would
          have increased by $1,480  million during
          the period 1976-1979.   This  is  a 29.1 per-
          cent increase over the capital  expenditures
          of $5,081 million which will be  required
          for this period if no  SC>2 regulations are
          implemented.

     •    External financing required  to  support
          these capital expenditures would have in-
          creased by $1,347 million over  the original
          external financing requirement  of $3,938
          million for the period 1976-1979—a 34.2
          percent increase.

     •    Annual operating and maintenance expense
          (which includes fuel)  would  have increased
          about 3.2 percent by 1980 and 2.6 percent
          by 1985.  The annual increase by 1985
          would have been $86.1 million.


          There is a substantial difference in the relative

impacts of the revised S0? regulation  and the original pro-

posed regulation.  As can be seen from the data in Table 1,
the original regulation would have  had about two  and one-half

times the impact of the revised regulation.  For  example,  the
increase in 1980 consumer charges due  to  the original-regula-
tion would have been 2.7 times the  increase due to the revised

regulation.  Cumulative capital expenditures for  SO- equipment
would have been $938 million (2.7 times)  larger under the or-
iginal regulation than the revised  regulation. Similar dif-
ferences exist in external financing.


          It should be noted that all  capital expenditures re-

quired by either the original or the revised SO-  regulations

would be incurred prior to 1980. However, changes in operating

costs resulting from the regulations would continue  throughout

the remaining lives of the generating  equipment affected.

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                                  -5-

                                Table 1
             IMPACT OF S02 REGULATIONS ON THE  INVESTOR-
                 OWNED OHIO ELECTRIC  UTILITY INDUSTRY
                    (all figures in 1975 dollars)
Consumer Charges          1976
(mills/kwh)               1980
                          1985

Operating Revenues        1976
(millions of              1980
  dollars)                1985

Average Monthly           1976
Residential Bill          1980
  (dollars)               1985

Capital Expenditures,
1976-1979
(millions of
  dollars)

External Financing,
1976-1979
(millions of
   dollars)
Baseline

  $23.75
   27.54
   30.94

 $3,176
  4,451
  6,285

 $23.55
  30.33
  37.57

 $5,081
  $3,938
  Revised
 \2  Rงฃ

$23.77
 28.35
 31.49
$3,178
 4,591
 6,398

$23.57
 31.21
 38.25

$5,623
$4,435
 Oriqinal
S0_2 Reg's.

  $23.81
   29.73
   32.44
  $3,184
   4,815
   6,591

  $23.59
   32.73
   39.40

  $6,561
  $5,285

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                              -6-
          These conclusions and the data and analysis supporting
them are the subject of the following chapters.   Chapter 2 cov-
ers the method of analysis employed and the scope of the study.
Chapters 3 and 4 cover in detail the financial impacts of the
revised and originally proposed S02 regulations,  respectively.
Appendix A contains summary financial data from which the con-
clusions were drawn.  Appendix 8 contains the pollution control
cost data supplied to TBS by EPA, PEDCO,  and EEA for use in this
analysis.

          A  separate Technical  Appendix  contains the  full set
of  projections  for  each  of  the  eight Ohio  investor-owned util-
ities,  the  assumptions and  data on which the projections were
based,  and  a detailed  description  of the computerized model
used in the  study.
T
B
S

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                            -7-
                         CHAPTER 2
               METHODOLOGY AND SCOPE OF ANALYSIS
          The methodology employed for this analysis  is  con-
sistent with the national approach taken by EPA.  Temple, Bar-
ker & Sloane, Inc. (TBS) performed the analysis  for EPA's May
1976 report Economic and Financial Impacts of Federal  Air and
Water Pollution Controls on the Electric Utility  Industry.3

          To determine the impact of the SO0 regulations on
                                           Ci
existing plants, financial projections for the Ohio electric
utility industry were made assuming no EPA S00 regulations
                                             CA
on existing plants.  This projection does, however, include
the expenditures to be made for pollution control equipment
on future power plants (including compliance with particu-
late regulations, New Source Performance Standards, and  ef-
fluent guidelines) and EPA estimates of expenditures  to  be
made in bringing existing plants into compliance with  partic-
ulate regulations and effluent guidelines.  The  financial con-
dition of the Ohio electric utility industry assuming  compliance
with the SO0 regulations by the end of 1979 was  compared to the
           ^
projections made assuming no S02 regulations to  measure  the im-
pact of the regulations.  The same analysis was  performed for
both the revised and the original regulations.   Appendix B shows
the pollution control equipment and operating costs used in the
study.

          TBS has used the same computerized Policy-Testing
model (PTm) of the electric utility industry in  this  Ohio util-
ity study as it used in the national study.  The general approach
to developing the industry projections has been  to utilize the
3
 Copies available from the National Technical Information Service, Spring-
 field, Virginia 22151.  (EPA-230/3-76-013)

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                             -8-
PTm model for the financial relationships and to rely upon
individual utilities for the data and assumptions underlying
the projections.

          The PTm model for the electric utility industry con-
tains forecasting relationships of energy requirements, capac-
ity, and utilization at the company level.   In this applica-
tion, PTm takes as inputs each utility's projections of gen-
eration, peak load and capacity additions.   It then forecasts
operating expenses, revenues, financing requirements, and ul-
timately, consumer charges from 1976 to 1985.

          There are three major areas of data requirements for
PTm.  The first area comprises detailed operating and financial
statistics for the base year, 1975.  These  data were obtained
from material supplied by the utilities.  Second is a set of
assumptions regarding future load growth and capacity additions
and retirements.  The data contained in each company's Ten Year
Forecast Report to the Ohio Power Siting Commission were used
to meet this requirement.  Finally, PTm requires projections
of a variety of economic and physical variables, including new
plant costs (per kilowatt of capacity), fuel prices, interest
rates, inflation rates, tax rates, heat rates, capacity factors,
etc.  Many of those items were available in the material sup-
plied by each utility, and where available, were used in making
the projections.  Where such data were not  provided by the com-
pany, TBS utilized estimates developed previously in TBS' analy-
sis for EPA of the national impacts of pollution control regu-
lations upon the electric utility industry.  Capital and operating
costs associated with each type of pollution control were pro-
vided by the EPA.
                                                           TBS

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                             -9-
          Due to the diversity in size and operating charac-
teristics of the major electric utilities in Ohio, the im-
pacts of the SO0 regulations were determined on a company
               ฃ
basis rather than a state-wide basis.   There are eight major
investor-owned electric utilities in Ohio.  Together, they
account for approximately 94 percent of the coal-fired elec-
tric production capacity (1975) and approximately 96 percent
of the total power generated in Ohio (1974).  The relative
size of these utilities is shown in, Figure 1 and Table 2.
The majority of the power and generating capacity not furnished
by these investor-owned utilities is provided by a number of
municipal and cooperative utility systems.  The municipal and
cooperative systems are very small compared to the investor-
owned companies.  In 1975 their total coal-fired generating
capacity was about 1,318 megawatts.  The major investor-owned,
municipal, and cooperative utilities are listed in Table 2.

          A number of factors dictated that the analysis of
the effects of the S02 regulations on the municipal and coop-
erative systems be performed on a composite basis; that is,
the group of municipals and cooperatives be treated as one
utility system.  These factors were:  1) the relatively small
size of each; 2) a general lack of accurate and timely finan-
cial and operating data; and 3) the relatively static nature
of the municipals' operations (i.e., little growth in capacity).

          When projecting the financial condition of each of
the investor-owned utilities, the operation of existing plants
and construction of new plants outside Ohio was included.  The
cost of pollution control equipment (PCE) being, or to be, in-
stalled on these plants and all new plants, both in and out of
Ohio, was taken from utility sources, where available.  EPA cost
estimates for PCE were used only for existing plants in Ohio,
bringing them in compliance with particulate regulations, ef-
fluent guidelines, and S02 regulations.

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                                               Figure 1

                                        GENERATING CAPABILITY*
                             OF THE MAJOR OHIO ELECTRIC UTILITIES - 1975
Municipals  &
Cooperatives
Toledo Edison
Comp any

Columbus  and
Southern  Ohio

Ohio Valley  Elec-
tric Corporation

Dayton Power &
Light

Cincinnati Gas &
Electric

Ohio Edison
Company

Cleveland Elec-
tric Illuminating

Ohio Power
Company
   1331
                                      Legend:
1013
coal fired
other
         2105
          2354
           2365
                                                                         o
                                                                         i
                    3509
                     3664
                       3888
                                                               8607
                           1000     2000    3000     4000     5000    6000     7000

                                                     Megawatts of Capacity

*Net summer generating capability of each utility.  Includes gene-rating capacity inside
 and outside of Ohio.  These figures were used in making the projections in this analysis.
                                                       8000
            9000

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                                              TABLE 2
                                                        1
                           STEAM-ELECTRIC PLANT CAPACITY  OF OHIO UTILITIES -  1974
Utility
Investor-Owned
Cincinnati Gas & Electric
Cleveland Electric Illuminating
Columbus and Southern Ohio
Dayton Power and Light
Ohio Edison
Ohio Power
Ohio Valley Electric
Toledo Edison

Total Investor Owned
    Coal'
Capacity (MV.r)
   Total'
Capacity (MW)
 Generation
(million kwh)
Capitalization
(millions of $)
1826.9
3686.2
1677.8
3303.4
3756.0
5508.9
1086.3
947.0
2333.8
3686.2
1677.8
3303.4
3756.0
5508.9
1086.3
947.0
6662.5
19246.9
7874.1
12860.0
18164.1
14839.2
8045.0
5220.7
$1088.5
1263.1
781.8
798.9
1576.7
2143.7
127.9
665.5







i
M
  21792.5
  22299.4
   92912.5
Municipals and Cooperatives
Buckeye Power
Cleveland
Columbus
Dover
East Palestine
Kami Iton
Napoleon
Orrville
615.0
160.0
39.5
35.9
16.5
133.5
23.7
108.5
615.0
160.0
52.5
35.9
16.5
133.5
23.7
108.5
2824.0
171.6
107.1
74.9
31.8
234.4
59.0
144.0

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Utility
Painesville
Piqua
Reading
St.  Mary's
Shelby

Total Municipals and  Cooperatives
Total Ohio
    Coal
Capacity  (MW)
     63.0
     54.8
     15. 3
     12.5
     40.0

    1318.2
  23110.7
   TotalJ
Capacity (MW)
     63.0
     54.8
     15. 3
     12.5
     40.0

   1331.2
  23630.6
 Generation
(million  kwh)
      128.9
      161.0
       55.6
       22.5
       63.7

    4078.5
   96991.0
 Capacity and generation of jointly-owned plants is  listed only  under the company which
 operates the plant, not the companies which share ownership.  This chart is intended
 only for showing the relative size of investor-owned, municipal, and cooperative utili-
 ties.  The  definition of capacity is different from that used in Figure 1.   These numbers
 were not used in making the projections in this analysis.
 2
 Total coal-fired steam-electric capacity located in Ohio, 1975.
 2
 Total steam-electric capacity located in Ohio, 1975.
 4
 Total generation of steam-electric plants located in Ohio, 2974.
 Capitalization as of December 31, 1975, except Ohio Power (June 30, 1975).
 Source:  Steam-Electric Plant Factors,  1975, National Coal  Association
                                                                                                               to
                                                                                                               i

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                              -13-
          Four sets of projections were made for each company.
The first was the baseline, which included no expenditures for
pollution control equipment for existing plants, but did in-
clude PCE costs for new plants.  The second projection added
to the baseline expenditures those PCE expenditures necessary
to bring existing plants into compliance with particulate and
effluent guidelines (TSP and water).   The third and fourth
projections added the expenditures for S02 control required
by the original regulations, and the revised regulations,
respectively, to the expenditures included in the second pro-
jection.  When measuring the effects of the S02 regulations,
the third and fourth projections were compared with the second,

          A number of assumptions were made when making these
projections which affect the impact of the SOp regulations.
These assumptions were:
     •    Interest rates on capital required for
          future expenditures were held constant
          at a level near the rate each Ohio util-
          ity now pays for new capital.
     •    Each utility realizes a 14 percent rate
          of return on equity (in 1975, actual rate
          of return ranged from 10 to 14.3 percent).
     •    No plants were retired as a result of the
          issuance of the SO- regulations.

Additional detail on the assumptions made for each company
appears in the Technical Appendix.

          Each of the eight investor-owned utilities was given
the opportunity to review and comment on the initial baseline
projections.  As a result of this review process, a number of
changes and corrections were made at the utilities' request.

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                            -14-
                         CHAPTER 3
                  FINANCIAL IMPACT OF THE
             REVISED SULFUR DIOXIDE REGULATIONS
          The economic impact of the revised sulfur dioxide
(S00) regulations on the Ohio electric utility industry
   ฃ.t
and its customers will be evident in a number of areas.
These are:

     •    consumer charges and operating revenues,
     •    average residential electric bill,
     •    operation and maintenance expenses,
     •    capital expenditures requirements, and
     •    external financing requirements.

The regulations will effect both investor-owned and munic-
ipal and cooperative systems in these areas.  These effects
were summarized in Chapter 1 and are covered in more detail
below.
CONSUMER CHARGES AND OPERATING REVENUES

          For consumers of electricity, the most meaninful
measure of the effect of implementing the revised S00 regu-
                                                    ฃj
lations is the increase in annual costs which results.  The
total annual cost of S02 control is equivalent to the in-
creased revenues which would have to be collected by the
electric utilities from their customers to cover their in-
creased costs.  The required revenues would increase because
T
B
S

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                            -15-
of increased operating and maintenance costs,  fuel premiums,
interest charges, depreciation charges,  and income and
property taxes.  The increase in operating revenues required
in any given year is the cost of SCU control for that year.

          It is also meaningful to look at the increase in
operating costs on a per kilowatt-hour basis.   Consumer
charges are defined as the annual operating revenues divided
by the kilowatt-hour sales for that year.  The increase in
consumer charges due to the SO2 regulations is the increase
in cost of each kilowatt-hour of electricity sold.

          Figure 2 shows the consumer charges (in constant
1975 dollars) for each of the eight investor-owned utilities
studied, for the years 1976, 1980, and 1985.  In 1976, the
impact of the revised SOp regulations is hardly measurable.
The effect would be most pronounced in 1980, ranging across
utility systems from no increase to a 6.6 percent increase
in consumer charges and averaging 2.9 percent.  By 1985, the
relative effect of the S00 regulations (i.e.,  as a percent of
                         ^j
consumer charges) would decrease due to the increase in other
charges resulting from the construction of new plants and
increased fuel prices.

          Figure 3 shows the operating revenues for each
company for the same periods covered by Figure 2.  The in-
creases which would result due to S00 control  on a percent-
                                    ^
age basis are the same as for consumer charges, except for
slight variations due to rounding error.

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                   -16-


                 FlGURE 2

PROJECTED CONSUMER CHARGES FOR ELECTRICITY
          REVISED S02 REGULATIONS
                                                                      PERCENT  INCREASE
                                                                           DUE  TO
H10 VALLEY
ELECTRIC
HIO POWER
INCINNATI
GAS &
ELECTRIC
.EVELAMD
ELECTRIC &
ILLUMINATING
ILEDO EDISON
110 EDISON
,YTON POWER
& LIGHT
ILUMBUS S
SOUTHERN
OHIO ELEC-
TRIC
1976 |9.9 KEY:
1980 : ' II 11. 5 [ 	 1 BASELINE C
•1985 . • 1112.4 1 	 1 TSP AND WA
1 	 1 CHARGES
ฃeSl S02 REGULA
1976 ' " • ' ' • ' 1119.8
•1980 ' • 120.7
1985 •• 1321.8

1976 : |28.2
1980 IE331.9
1985 • . E

1975 ' ' 128.2
0.0
HARGES Q g
FER REGULATION g[g
riON CHARGES
0.1
1.5
1.8
0.1
3.1
J35.2 1.8
n 9
1930 ' IE335.3 ' t~R
1985

1S76 131.0
1980
1985

1976 = 129.6
1980
1935 •• •

1976- ' • : |31.4
1980 • : |
1935 - •• - -.

I97G ••••.'• • 31.6
1980 • •
1935.. . • . .
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 i 1 1 1 t 1 I i i I_J !_[ I 1 1 } l_L '
]|J^7.3 h'-f
0.2
IE^37,3 5.7

0.1
1 )337.5 2.2
1 141.0 1.4
'0.0
136.0 1,2
I |H1.7 0.7
0.0
~~^39.7 2.6
H44.3 i 5
!!tlll!l ! I 1 ' ! 1 1
3 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
 CONSTANT 1975 MILLS PER KILOWATT-HOURS SOLD

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                     -17-
                   FlGURE 3
PROJECTED REQUIRED ELECTRIC OPERATING REVENUES
           REVISED SO-, REGULATIONS


OHIO VALLEY
pi prTp T r



OHIO POWER



CINCINNATI
/-AC 9
ELECTRIC


CLEVELAND
PI FfTR I f ?,
ILLUMINATING


TOLEDO EDISON



OHIO EDISON



DAYTON POWER
SI f fiUT



COLUMBUS &
SOUTHERN
OHIO ELEC-
TRIC


KEY: SOa CONTROL

1376 •: 1 181.3 1 	 ' TSP " WATER REVENUES 0.0
1980 1209.0 EHH sฐ2 REVENUES 0.0
1985 11226.2 	 " 	 	 " U,U

U.976- .:' • •.:•••"• ,, • l| 842.4 0.1
-1980 • . • " 111,069.0 1,5
1985. • . • II 1.372.9 0.8

1976 • 1362.4 0.2
1980 .:. . .. • . . . IS 530.2 3.1
11985. :...-• ' • -II 806. 8 1,8

J976 • : 1480.7 0.2
J980 • • P 771.1 G.fi
:]985 , - Illl, 047. 2 4.2

J976 I 223.9 0.2
:1980 $ 332.2 5.7
4985 1 485.6 3.1

-1976 • 	 | 545.3 0.1
1930 . 0342.4 2.2
:1985 .-. • • • .... Jli.iQfi.Ji i.a

.1976 . 1286.. 6 • O.n
1980 11414.9 1.2
.1985 .... !!„,,.(, ' n7

1976 • ' 255. S 0.1
]980 11412.6 2.5
]985 • . . - . 1(619.3 1.5
! 1 ! 1 t 1 } |
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 L400 1,600
        MILLIONS OF CONSTANT 1975 DOLLARS

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                             -18-
          Even without S0? control on existing plants,  there
will be a substantial rise in consumer charges and operating
revenues in constant dollars (about 15.5 percent) in the per-
iod 1976 to 1980.  This will be due to the increase in fuel
prices and new plant construction costs over and above the
rate of inflation, and to the construction of other pollution
control equipment required by existing regulations.

AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC BILL

          To put the increases in consumer charges and oper-
ating revenues due to SC>  control in another perspective, the
impact on the average residential customer's monthly bill has
been calculated.  To perform this calculation, some assumptions
were made:

     •    Average electricity usage per residential
          customer will increase at an annual rate
          equal to the projected average annual
          rate in the East North Central Census
          Region (3 percent per year between 1976
          and 1980 and 2.5 percent per year be-
          tween 1981 and 1985).
     •    Residential rates will remain about 50
          percent higher than the average rate
          per kilowatt-hour.

          The average 1976 monthly residential customer elec-
tric bill of $23.55 will increase to $30.33 in 1980 and $37.57
in 1985 without any SO- control expenditure.  The revised SCu
regulations would cause the 1980 monthly bill to increase $0.88
(2.9 percent) and the 1985 monthly bill to increase $0.68 (1.8
percent)  in constant dollars.  The constant dollar increase
would be  less in 1985 than in 1980 because capital-related
charges (i.e., interest and depreciation) are fixed in undeflated
dollars and therefore decrease over time in constant dollars.

-------
                            -19-
  OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE EXPENSES

          The revised S00 regulations would affect the
                        &
operating and maintenance expenses of Ohio utilities in
three ways.  First, there would be the additional operating
and maintenance expense associated with the operation of the
pollution control equipment.  Second, the operation of the
additional capacity built to replace the derated capacity
would increase operation and maintenance expenses.  Third,
any premium paid for low-sulfur fuels necessary to comply
with the S00 regulations would be reflected in the operation
           ^
and maintenance costs.

          Figure 4 shows the operation and maintenance ex-
penses per kilowatt-hour sold of each of the investor-owned
utilities in Ohio for 1976, 1980, and 1985.  For some com-
panies the cost per kilowatt-hour sold decreased over one or
more of the periods shown.  This is  due to the addition of
large amounts of nuclear generating  capacity in the future.
The nuclear capacity has lower fuel  costs than coal capacity,
and this is reflected in Figure 4.   (Nuclear capacity does
have a higher initial capital cost than coal capacity which
offsets some of the fuel savings.)

          Under the revised regulations the increase in opera-
tion and maintenance expenses due to S02 control on existing
plants  ranged from 0 to 3 percent and averaged 1.1 percent in
1980.   In 1985 the range of increase was from 0 to 2.3 per-
cent with an average increase of 0.9 percent.   Total operation
and maintenance expenses for 1980 and 1985 are projected to
be $2,602 million and $3,377 million, respectively.

-------
                           -20-
                         FlGURE 1
PROJECTED OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (PER KILOWATT-HOUR)
                   REVISED S02 REGULATIONS
OHIO VALLEY
ELECTRIC


OHIO POWER



CINCINNATI
ELECTRIC


CLEVELAND
ILLUMINATING


TOLEDO EDISON



OHIO EDISON



DAYTON POWER
ฃ1 IfiHT



COLUMBUS &
OHIO ELEC-
TRIC

1976 • • - IR.K KFY:
1980- .- • HlO.O | 	 InA-r, inc ciiArcc-
iqor . 	 	 Tl,, - 1 	 JBAoCLINL CHARGES
g[gjS02 CHARGES
1976. .-•••. •• - h?_ 7
,1980 •-• . • • [b.7
1985- • '• • -• • • |iq T,

1976 s • hs.fi
1980 . Hifi.q
1985 - • . • - ... ; • [Jig.i

1976 •• 17 ^
1980 | 13.6
1935 • !งi7 ^

1976 • • • 18.5
1980 . ' • ! 17.fi
1985 . n lf^

1976 - " 13 n
1980 • • |!J7n a
1985 . . : - lfiis.7

1976 . • • : 1J} c
1980 • • : lliq.q
1985 . -1177.3

1976 ' • iq.o
1980 - . ||?0.1
1985 • • . IB 77. 3
Illlllllll1!!!!*'! |!l
-------
                            -21-
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE REQUIREMENTS

          While the impact of the revised S02 regulations on
the Ohio electricity consumer is most clearly shown by the
change in consumer charges, the impact on the electric utility
industry is most evident in the increase in capital expendi-
ture requirements.

          Figure 5 shows each investor-owned utility's capital
expenditures for the period 1976-1979.  (Since the revised
S00 regulations require compliance prior to the end of 1979,
  ฃ4
it has been assumed that all capital expenditures made in
compliance with the regulations will be made prior to 1980.)
The expenditures shown as being required for the SO2 regula-
tions consist of expenditures for pollution control equipment
(scrubbers, precipitators, blending equipment, etc.) as well
as for replacing capacity which was derated as a result of
the installation of the pollution control equipment or the
use of low sulfur coal.

          As a percent of other capital expenditures, the
S02 expenditures range from 0 to 23 percent across utility
systems and average 10.6 percent.  During that period, the
total capital expenditures for all companies will be $5,031
million for non-SO0 items and $542 million for S00 control.
                  ^                              ^

          Figure 6 shows  the level of these expenditures by
year.  The revised S00 regulations would cause an increase
                     ฃ*
in capital expenditures for the years 1976, 1977, 1978, and
1979 of 6.1, 12.4, 15.2,  and 7.5 percent, respectively.

-------
                               -22-

                             FlGURE 5
            PROJECTED CUMULATIVE  CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
              JANUARY 1.  1976-DECEMBER 31,  1979
                       REVISED S02 REGULATION
S(>2 EXPENDITURES
68.0
72. S?
fik
202. C[
68.4
71.2
21
38
1 > ! i
3.0
"*3
ซ•' ^
fnปtn
.**ฃu]
'•i
4
KaiU

Sltttf

•Wlj
"kwS

J
•M

t<
•5i


OTHER EXPENDITURES

OHtฐ ico c
VALLEY 168.5

KPY. S02 CONTROL
\ (BASELINE EXPENDITURES
| | TSP I WATER EXPENDITURES
E2Si SO? EXPENDITURES

: OHIO POWER ./ i)i)7.5 15.2

CINCINNATI GAS 3, ELECTRIC 657.0 . H-0

] CLEVELAND ELECTRIC & ILLUMINATING 879.3 ^'ฎ

'. TpUEDO EDISOM 507.0 11-6

. • ' OHIO EDISON ''.. 1,23^.3 5.8

DAYTON POWER & LIGHT
571.7 3.7

COLUMBUS & SOUTHERN-
OHIO ELECTRIC
535.4 7.2
, |>! I 1 1 I 1
100
200
200       400       600       800      1,000     1,200     1,400
  MILLIONS OF CONSTANT 1975 DOLLARS

-------
                                           -23-


                                        FI CURE 6

                           PROJECTED ANNUAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
                          OHIO  INVESTOR-OWNED ELECTRIC UTILITIES
                                  REVISED S02 REGULATIONS
      S02 EXPENDITURES  OTHER EXPENDITURES
c
163
216
ป7

j




107
1 I



*•*!

.
1976




919
1977


rcHLtMl INCREASE
TOTAL DUE TO
EXPENDITURES S02 CONTROL
976 6.1
L317 1,480 12.it

1978
• 1,120 1,636 15.2

1979
f

|
1,425 1,532 ' 7.5
I
1,000      500         0        500      1,000     1,500
           MILLIONS OF CONSTANT 1975 DOLLARS
    KEY:
    [""  \ BASELINE EXPENDITURES
    |     | TSP & WATER EXPENDITURES
    ES3 S02 EXPENDITURES

-------
                             -24-
EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIREMENTS

          The impact on external  financing requirements, that
is, the amount of capital which must  be raised through the
issuance of debt or stock closely parallels the impact of the
S02 regulations on capital expenditures.

          The cumulative external financing requirements for
the period 1976-1979 for each  Ohio investor-owned utility are
shown in Figure 7.  The annual level  of combined external
financing requirements for all the utilities is shown in
Figure 8.  The revised S00 regulations would cause an in-
                         ^
crease in external financing requirements for the years 1976,
1977, 1978, and 1979 of  10.0,  15.0, 20.2, and 5.1 percent,
respectively.  The total external financing requirements for
the period 1976-1979 are $3,938 million for non-S02 items
and $497 million for S02 control.

          To determine the ability of Ohio investor-owned
utilities to finance the S02 removal  equipment required by
the revised regulations, each  utility's capacity for issuing
additional long-term debt and  common  equity was examined.
While a utility's ability to raise capital is dependent on
many factors, this analysis focused on two of the more im-
portant factors:  debt coverage ratios and market-to-book
stock price ratios.  These two ratios, while somewhat limited,
provide the best direct indications of a utility system's
                    4
financing strength.
 For a fuller discussion of coverage ratios and market-to-book ratios,
 see the report prepared by TBS for EPA, Economic and Financial Impacts
 of Federal Air and Water Pollution Controls on the Electric Utility
 Industry,, May 1976, pages IV-71 to 78 and IV-121 to 127.
                                                            TBS

-------
                                          -25-


                                         FlGURE 7
                   PROJECTED CUMULATIVE EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIREMENTS
                             JANUARY 1, 1976-DECEMBER 31,  1979
                                  REVISED S02 REGULATION
S02 FJNANCIN6 OTHER FINANCING
0
59.9
65.9
0




isi.g ;
61.0
65.5


kUr



19.1
i
35.1
I , I I !




OHIO 1(1(1 7
VAU.E"

..-'•- OHIO POWEft

' CINCINNATI GAS
&. ELECTRIC
KEY: SO? CONTROL
L-"V.J BASELINE FINANCING
C! | TSP S WATER FINANCING
ESI S02 FINANCING Q.O
W2.3 13.5
468.5 W.l

'.I • CLEVELAND ELECTRIC '. cyr -r 97 ,.
'•• : & ILLUMINATING \>u>J LI ,H

TOLEDO ฃ0t SOW
154.3 13.1

OHIO EDiSQN ; 915.8 7.2

; BAYIOD POWER
• ... ฃ LISHT.

139.1 1.1
COLUMBUS S SOUTH- 7qo 0 o o
ERN OHIO ELECTRIC J3l3lฐ 0>0
! ! 1 1
1111,11
100  300  200  100  0    100  200  300  100  500  600  700  800  900 1,000
               MILLIONS OF CONSTANT 1975 DOLLARS

-------
                                       -26-
                                     FlGURE  8
                  PROJECTED ANNUAL EXTERNAL  FINANCING  REQUIREMENTS
                       OHIO INVESTOR-OWNED ELECTRIC  UTILITIES
                              REVISED S02 REGULATIONS
• S02 FINANCING OTHER FINANCING
c
162
215

7 j

:SSฃt

t^i*7

63
I 1
1


1976 574

1977'-.

1978

1979 ' "
,
PERCENT INCREASE
TOTAL DUE TO
FINANCING S02 CONTROL
631 10.0
1,076 1,238 15.0

1,063 1^278 20.2

. 1,225 L288 5.1
I !
LOOO      500        0        500      1,000     1,500
            MILLIONS OF CONSTANT  1975  DOLLARS
     KEY:
     {     jBASELINE FINANCING
     |     [ TSP & WATER FINANCING
           S02 FINANCING

-------
                            -27-
          The coverage ratio is a measure of a company's
capacity to raise additional long-term debt.  It is the ratio
of net earnings before interest, and taxes to long-term debt
interest, and must legally be at or above a prespecified level
for a utility to issue additional long-term debt.   For the
Ohio utilities, that level is set at 2.0 in the Indenture
Agreements for their outstanding bonds.

          The market-to-book ratio, on the other hand, is a
measure of a company's ability to sell common stock at an
economic price.  When the market price of stock falls below
the book price,  (i.e., market-to-book  ratio below  1.00)
sales of additional common stock dilute the holdings of
existing stockholders.  For that reason selling common stock
below book value is undesirable to the stockholders and
avoided by the companies as much as possible.

          In this analysis the present coverage ratios, bond
ratings, and market-to-book ratios were obtained in order to
assess each company's current financial strength.   In addi-
tion, the future prospects for each company were estimated
by computing coverage ratios for the years 1976-1979 on the
basis of the projections described earlier.  Those computations
were performed under several different assumptions:  first,
for the baseline case; second, including the additional ex-
penditures required to meet the revised regulations financed
with the company's baseline mix of debt and equity; and third,
including the additional expenditures financed completely with
debt (because for some companies the increased expenditure is
small relative to other expected financing).  All of these
computations were based upon the companies' historical rates
of return on equity for the 1972-1975 period in order to be

-------
                             -28-
conservative.  These current and projected figures then
served as indicators of each company's financial position
and were the basis for the conclusions described below.

          Although the revised S00 regulations would increase
                                 ^j
the capital expenditures and external financing requirements
of seven of the eight investor-owned utilities studied (Ohio
Valley Electric would not be affected), five of those seven
should experience little or no difficulty in raising the cap-
ital required.  Those five are:

     •    Cincinnati Gas and Electric
     •    Cleveland Electric Illuminating
     •    Columbus and Southern Ohio
     •    Dayton Power and Light
     •    Toledo Edison

          These companies are now, and are projected to be,
in a financial position which should enable them to finance
the required SOg equipment by issuing additional long-term
debt and/or common equity.  Each is discussed briefly below.

          Cincinnati Gas and Electric appears to be able to
issue additional debt to cover its S02~related external financing
requirement of $65.9 million.  Based on the financial projec-
tions made in the study, t.he company's coverage ratio of 2.8
(October 1975) will decline somewhat by 1979, even in the ab-
sence of the SOg expenditures, because interest rates are
expected to remain high for utilities.  Even so, its coverage
ratio is not expected to drop below 2.3 by 1979.  The additional

-------
                           -29-
debt required by the S00 expenditures would only account  for
                       ฃj
another drop of 0.05, so debt financing could be expected to
be available.  With a current Moody rating of Aa, the bonds
should also carry reasonable interest rates.  In addition,
financing part of the expenditures with equity would also
seem feasible, with the stock currently selling slightly
higher than the last reported book value of $17.75  (December
31, 1975).5

          Although Cleveland Electric Illuminating  has  the
largest S02 expenditures of the Ohio utilities, $202 million,
it also appears to be in a position to finance them through
a combination of long-term debt and equity.  Cleveland's
high coverage ratio  (3.2 as of September 30, 1975)  is projected
to remain above 3.0 from 1976 to 1979, before considering
the S02 expenditures.  Even when the S02 financing  is included
at the company's baseline mix of debt and equity, the coverage
ratio should not drop below 2.8 in that period, keeping the
company comfortably above the minimum ratio of 2.0.   In addi-
tion, the company's current bond rating of Aa  (Moody's) and
relatively high average rate of return on equity  (14 percent
in the 1972-1975 period) enhance its ability to issue addi-
tional debt.  Cleveland's current common stock price of $28.50
(August 26, 1976) is above its 1975 year-end book value of
$24.29, which makes equity financing appear feasible  as
well.

          Columbus and Southern Ohio's coverage ratio of  2.6
(September 1975) is not projected to fall below 2.4 in  any
year during the 1976-1979 period, in the absence  of the S02
 This and all subsequent book values of stock were obtained from Solomon
 Brothers> "Eleotrio Utility Common Stook Market Data," May 1976.

-------
                            -30-
expenditures.  The S02-related external financing requirement
of $35.1 million for this period should not lower the coverage
ratio by more than 0.09 even assuming the financing was
completely with long-term debt.  Equity financing also appears
feasible, assuming the current market price of stock is main-
tained.  The market price is now $24.38, virtually equal to
the 1975 book value of $24.31.

          Dayton Power and Light's mid-1975 coverage ratio of
2.7 is expected to drop to about 2.15 by 1979, before consid-
ering SO2 expenditures.  While this would indicate that Dayton
Power and Light is reaching the limits of its debt capacity,
the relatively small amount of financing needed for SO0 equip-
                                                      ^j
ment,  $19.4 million, should have no appreciable impact on the
company's coverage ratios.  The system's baseline financing
requirements, by comparison, are projected to be $439 million
in the 1976-1979 period.   Dayton Power and Light's common
stock is currently selling for slightly more than its 1975
book value of $18.15, which would indicate that if the price
of the stock does not decrease, equity financing is feasible.

          Toledo Edison's year-end 1975 coverage ratio of 2.35
is projected to hit a low of 2.25 in 1977 and then increase
to 2.6 by 1979.   Even if  the SOg financing requirements of
$61 million are assumed to be financed entirely with debt,
that coverage ratio should not decrease by more than about
0.1, indicating that debt financing seems available to the
company.   It would also appear feasible to provide some of
the financing in the form of common equity if the current
stock  price is maintained.  The 1975 book value of stock is
$22.39, and the current market price is $24.00.
                                                           TBS

-------
                             -31-
          Two of the Ohio utilities, Ohio Edison and Ohio
Power, might have difficulty in financing the S02-related
capital expenditures.  Both companies have coverage ratios
near 2.0, and are not projected to improve this ratio sub-
stantially by 1979.

          While Ohio Edison's ability to raise additional
debt financing may be limited, the amount required for S00
                                                         ^
equipment, $65.5 million, is small in comparison to its other
financing needs for 1976-1979 of $915.8 million.  If it is
not possible to obtain sufficient additional debt financing
for the SO2 equipment, a major portion of the financing
appears possible with common equity.  Ohio Edison's common
stock is currently selling well above its 1975 book value of
$15.39.  Assuming the market price of $18.13 (August 26,  1976)
holds, equity financing would appear to be feasible.  Addi-
tional common equity on the order of $65.5 million over a
four-year period would not significantly alter the capital
structure of this company, whose capitalization exceeds
$1.6 billion.  Alternatively, in light of the magnitude of
its baseline capital expenditure program, it seems possible
that Ohio Edison could reschedule its other capital expen-
ditures in order to free up financing for some or all of
the SOg equipment.

          Ohio Power's financing difficulties appear to be
the most severe of the Ohio utilities.  While the amount
of SOo-related financing in relationship to other financing
requirements is almost the same as for Cincinnati Gas and
Electric and Toledo Edison, Ohio Power's financial condition
is much more constrained.  With a Moody's rating of Baa and
future financing requirements which should keep the coverage

-------
                            -32-
ratio very close to 2.0, Ohio Power's ability to raise addi-
tional debt is extremely limited.   As in the case of Ohio
Edison, however, equity financing could offer a possible
solution.  American Electric Power, which owns Ohio Power,
had a market-to book ratio of 1.03 in May 1976.  Since then
the stock price has increased slightly.  One cannot guarantee
the continuation of that level,  but at this point it does
appear possible to finance the S02 expenditures in whole or
in part through common equity.

          A recent development which is not reflected in this
analysis is Ohio Power's recent announcement of the pending
closure of two power plants.  If that happens and the cost
of installing S00 equipment at those two plants is excluded,
                ^
the company's S02 expenditures will decrease from $68 million
to about $5 million.  Even in its current financial condition,
Ohio Power can reasonably be expected to be able to finance
that reduced level of expenditures.

          The financial indicators on which the above analyses
were based, coverage ratios and market-to-book stock price
ratios, are sensitive to changes in a number of factors.  A
significant change in any one of them could alter the conclu-
sions above.  These factors include:

     •    realized rate of return on common equity,
     •    market price of common stock,
     •    long- and short-term debt interest rates,
     •    capital project construction schedules, and
     •    addition and elimination of capital construction
          projects.
                                                           TBS

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                           -33-
IMPACTS ON MUNICIPAL AND  COOPERATIVE UTILITIES


          Due to the small  size of the individual municipal
and cooperative utilities in  Ohio, it is difficult to make
projections of their future operating and financial condition

with a high degree of accuracy.   A number of strategic assump-
tions must be made when analyzing the effect of the S02 regu-

lations on them.  These assumptions are based on historical
data and may or may  not prove to be true in the future.  The
assumptions used in  this  analysis are:
     •    The municipal  and  cooperatives maintain their
          1974 share  of  total  generation (4.2 percent)"
          and portion of purchased power (13.4 percent)
          in the future.

     •    The increase in average consumer charges
          (aside from that which arises from the S02
          regulations) is at the same rate as for
          the investor-owned utilities.

     •    The price the  municipals and cooperatives pay
          for purchased  power  increases at the same
          rate as  investor-owned utilities' generating
          costs when  S02 control is included.

     •    Approximately  70 percent of the capital
          which would be required to meet the S02
          standards is financed externally.


          The major effect of  the revised S02 regulations on

the municipal and  cooperative  utilities is an increase in

capital expenditures  between 1976 and 1979 of $24.1 million

and about $3.2 million a year  in increased operating and
/
 The historic data used for the municipal and cooperative utility
 analysis were obtained from the 1974 Statistical Year Book, published
 by the Edison Electric Institute, and the National Coal Association 's
 1974 Steam Plant Factors.

-------
                          -34-
maintenance expenses after 1979.   On  an  annual  basis,  this
amounts to an increase in operating costs  of  $5.75  million.
In 1980 and 1985 municipal and cooperative generation  is  es-
timated to be 7,258 and 9,177 million kilowatt-hours,  respec-
tively.  The average cost per kilowatt-hour sold is estimated
to be 26.85 mills in 1980 and 30.13 mills  in  1985,  without  any
SO0 control.  The increase in cost due to  SO0 control  would
  ฃt                                        ฃt
be 0.79 (2.9 percent) in 1980 and 0.63 mills  (2.1 percent)  in
1985.

          In the absence of SO2 control, the  average monthly
residential bill is estimated to be $22.60 in 1980  and $28.00
in 1985.  The increase in the average monthly bill  due to S02
control would be $0.66 per month in 1980 and  $0.58  per month
in 1985.
                                                           IrlBlsl

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                           -35-

                         CHAPTER 4
                  FINANCIAL IMPACT OF THE
       ORIGINALLY PROPOSED SULFUR DIOXIDE REGULATIONS
          The impacts of the originally proposed sulfur di-
oxide regulations on the Ohio electric utility industry and
its customers will be covered briefly in this chapter.  Since
the areas of impact were explained in Chapter 3 and apply
here, only the actual numeric impacts will be discussed.

CONSUMER CHARGES AND OPERATING REVENUES

          Figure 9 shows the increase in consumer charges (in
constant 1975 dollars), for each of the eight investor-owned
utilities studied, for the years 1976-1980 and 1985.  In 1976
the impact of the revised S02 regulations would have been
hardly measurable.  The effect would have been most pronounced
in 1980, ranging across utility systems from an 0.9 to an
11.3 percent increase in consumer charges and averaging 7.9
percent.  By 1985 the effect of the S02 regulations as a
percent of consumer charges would have decreased due to the
increase in consumer charges from the construction of new
plants and increased fuel prices, except for slight variations
due to rounding error.

          Figure 10 shows the operating revenues for each com-
pany for the same periods covered by Figure 9.  The increases
due to SO0 control on a percentage basis are the same as for
         ฃt
consumer charges.
                                                           TBS

-------
                  -36-

                FIGURE 9
PROJECTED CONSUMER CHARGES FOR ELECTRICITY
    ORIGINAL PROPOSED S02 REGULATIONS


OHIO VALLEY
ELECTRIC



OHIO POWER



CINCINNATI
GAS &
ELECTRIC


:LEVELAND
ELECTRIC &
ILLUMINATING


'OLEDO EDISON



HIO EDISON



lAYTON POWER
& LIGHT



;OLUMBUS S
SOUTHERN
OHIO ELEC-



PERCENT INCREAS
SO? CONTROL
1976 .... 19.9 ^ n.n
,agn 	 Ill K 1 	 BASELINE CHARGES * ' '
lyoU . 	 , 1111. 0 ,,.-rrr, nrr-m nnriM 0 , Q
'1rior 	 	 ป.„ r I 	 1 S>P AND WATER REGULATION UlJ
1985.,.: : .1112.5 1 	 1 rH/vpr.e<; 09
fell S02 REGULATION CHARGES
1976 • ' • ' • |19.8 0.3
1980 F&l.S 7.2
1985 : •' Il22,6 t.5
'
1976 .. .- 	 |28.2 0.4
1980 	 . . - .. ItrSSSiSl.s • 11.2
1985 itTjSG.S 6.4

1976 128.2 0.3
I9SO - - lฃElฃ336.8 11.3
1985 	 ...:.. • 1^338,3 7.2

1^76 ' ' • |31.0 0.2
J980 '" IEO37.8 6.7
mS 1339.5 3.4

lb'7& . . 129.6 0.3
J98Q - f;^S40.5 10.5
1935 ILH^.O 6.5

1C>?6 131.4 0.1
MO 	 - ' | E337.0 4.0
1935 •--.:.- | 042.4 2.2

197G ' J31.6 0.0
1980 . | |;J40.0 3 3
1985 	 • • ^44.5 2.0
ljll!!ll!l!!ll|ll|i|l!ll !|!ll|ilil!ll|lll! 1 ! ^ ' 1 .i J
D 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
CONSTANT  1975 MILLS  PER  KILOWATT-HOUR SOLD

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                             -37-

                           FlGURE 10
        PROJECTED REQUIRED ELECTRIC OPERATING REVENUES
              ORIGINAL PROPOSED S09 REGULATIONS


OHIO VALLEY
Ft FPTP T T



OHIO POWER



CINCINNATI
ELECTRIC


CLEVELAND
ELECTRIC &
ILLUMINATING


TOLEDO EDISON



OHIO EDISON



DAYTON POWER



COLUMBUS &
SOUTHERN
OHIO ELEC-
TRIC

—•———•— PERCENT INCREASE DUE T(
KEY: so2 CONTROL
1 j BASELINE REVENUES
1976 J181.9 ( ( TSP & WATER REVENUES 0.0
1980 , 1210.9 ES3| so? REVENUES O.q


•1976 ...:• 	 : 	 : 	 • 	 : •.• ..• n 344.3 0.3
1980 . • IEJl.128.5 7.1
1985 . . IE! 1,422. 8 4.5

1976 - 	 9 363.3 n.4
1980 IO571.6 11.9
-1985.. .- 	 '.. ' . ' -IS1843.4 6.4

1976 | if81.3 0.3
J980 . 11^805.1 11.3
1985 !Et^ 1,076.7 7.7

J976 ) 224.0 n.9
1980 | 335.2 6.6
1985 . i 486. 9 3.4

1976 • -•. 	 | 546.8 0.3
193Q CT921.9 10.5
1985 . . . IEHl.256.8 6.5

1976 I286.S 0.1
1980 I342E.3 . 4.n
1985 || 653.9 2.2

1976 J255.8 n.fi
]S8Q 11415,7 3.3
J985 .. • ' ' i 1 622.1 9,n
1 1 i 1 i 1 1 i I i I i I L I
200       400       600       800      1,000     1,200
                MILLIONS OF CONSTANT  1975 DOLLARS
1,400     1,600

-------
                            -38-
AVERAGE RESIDENTIAL ELECTRIC BILL

          The average 1976 monthly residential customer elec-
tric bill of $23.55 will increase to $30.33 in 1980 and $37.57
in 1985 without any S02 control expenditure.  The original
S02 regulations would have caused the 1980 monthly bill to in-
crease $2.40 (7.9 percent) and the 1985 monthly bill to increase
$1.83 (4.9 percent) in constant dollars.  The constant dollar
increase is less in 1985 than in 1980 because capital-related
charges (i.e. ,  interest and depreciation) are fixed in unde-
flated dollars and therefore decrease over time in constant
dollars.

OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE EXPENSES

          Figure 11 shows the operation and maintenance ex-
penses of each of the investor-owned utilities in Ohio for
1976, 1980, and 1985, per kilowatt-hour sold.  For some com-
panies the cost per kilowatt-hour sold decreased over one or
more of the periods shown.  This is due to the addition of large
amounts of nuclear generating capacity in the future.  The
nuclear capacity has lower fuel costs than coal capacity, and
this is reflected in Figure 11.  (Nuclear capacity does have
a higher initial capital cost than coal capacity which offsets
some of the fuel savings.)

          The increase in operation and maintenance expenses
due to SOQ control on existing plants would have ranged between
         ^j
0.7 and 8.6 percent and would have averaged 3.2 percent in 1980.
In 1985 the range of increase would have been from 0.5 to 4.6
with an average increase of 2.6 percent.  Total operation and
maintenance expenses for 1980 and 1985 would have been $2,656
million and $3,432.6 million, respectively.
                                                            TBS

-------
-39-
FlGURE 11
PROJECTED OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (PER KILOWATT-HOUR)
ORIGINAL PROPOSED S02 REGULATIONS
OHIO VALLEY
ELECTRIC
OHIO POWER
CINCINNATI
GAS 8
ELECTRIC
CLEVELAND
ELECTRIC &
ILLUMINATING
TOLEDO EDISON
OHIO EDISON
DAYTON POWER
& LICHT
COLUMBUS &
SOUTHERN
OHIO ELEC-
TRIC

1976 18.6
1980 ilin.l
1985 ... [hl.fi

1976 ; .'119.9
1980 • • 1113.8
1985 ' • ; . IT

1976 • ' - - •• ' . 1 T
1980
1985

KEY:
[ /I BASELINE CHARGES
I j TSP AND WATER CHARGES
JSSl S02 CHARGES
5,5
5J
a 17.?.
Iiq.5

1976 •• •• • - J17 T,
1930
319.1
1985 IS 17. 7

197o
1980
1985 g

118.5
_J 17.6
16.3
1976 - 11*3.1.
1980 - ltS|?l 9
.19.85 	 . IB iq.9

1976
1980
1985 ' •
	 118.6
Ifeo.o
1^22.3

197&
1980
1985
lllll'll'l1'1!!1
D 5 10 15
119.0
1^20.1
"'1122.5
II
20 25
                                                                 PERCENT INCREASE DUE TO
                                                                 	SO; CONTROL

                                                                           (To

                                                                           0.7
                                                                           0.5
                                                                           0.0
                                                                           1.5
                                                                           1.3


                                                                           0.0
                                                                           5.1
                                                                           2.6
                                                                           0.0
                                                                           5.2
                                                                           H.6
                                                                           0.0
                                                                           2.9
                                                                           2.3
                                                                           0.0
                                                                           8.6
                                                                           3.7


                                                                           0.0
                                                                           0.9
                                                                           1.5


                                                                           0.0
                                                                           3.2
                                                                           2.2
CONSTANT 1975 MILLS PER KILOWATT-HOUR SOLD

-------
                               -40-
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE REQUIREMENTS

          Figure 12 shows each investor-owned utility's capital
expenditures for the period 1976-1979.   (Since the original
SO0 regulations would have required compliance prior to the
  ฃ
end of 1979, it has been assumed that all capital expenditures
made in compliance with the regulations would be made prior to
1980.)  The expenditures shown as being required for the S02
regulations consist of expenditures for pollution control equip
ment (scrubbers, precipitators,  blending equipment, etc.) as
well as for replacing capacity which was derated as a result
of the installation of the pollution control equipment or use
of low sulfur coal.
          As a percent of other capital expenditures, the
                                                            u
expenditures would have ranged from 5.6 to 86.0 percent across
utility systems, and averaged 29.1 percent.   During that period,
the total capital expenditures for all companies would have
been $5,081 million for non-S02 items and $1,480 million for
S02 control.

          Figure 13 shows the level of these expenditures by
year.  The original S02 regulations would have caused an in-
crease in capital expenditures for the years 1976, 1977, 1978,
and 1979, of 16.7. 33.8, 41.6, and 20.5 percent, respectively.

EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIREMENTS

          The cumulative external financing requirements for
the period 1979-1979 for each utility are shown in Figure 14,
and the annual level of combined external financing requirements
for all the investor-owned utilities in Ohio is shown in Figure 15,
                                                           TBS

-------
                                          -41-

                                         FlGURE  12
                        PROJECTED  CUMULATIVE  CAPITAL  EXPENDITURES
                          JANUARY  1,  1976-DECEKBER 31.  1979
                          ORIGINAL PROPOSED S02  REGULATION
S02 EXPENDITURES

385.0
•
315
364.)
1
i
tr* ,
23C
.8

1
1.5
t "

a^i.*."
\
9
wsrww.

.5

- •';





79.1


62.0
33.4
I 1 i






.1



Ut




-^•.j-.i-i-.-u-i-T-r- - r""1 — "1 nA^n TWF rYprun ITIIRF^
VALLEY 16S 5 ~ "1 TSP & WATER EXPENDITURES 5^
tSiiSS sn.. EXPENDITURES

:.:X; OHIO POWER : 447.5 86,0

^CINCINNATI GAS 5 ELECTRIC 657.0 35.1

••'•'•I 'CLEVELANP ELECTRIC 8 ILLUMINATING ; 879.3 35.9

• ;:•" 'TOLEDO EDISOK 587.0 13.5

•.;•'.: . • " OHJO EDISON . 1,234.3 29,5

DAYTON POWER & LIGHT 571,7 10.8

COLUMBUS ฃ SOUTHERN
J OHIO ELECTRIC 535.4 O.Z
III 1 1 1 1 1
400
200
200       400       600       800
  MILLIONS OF CONSTANT 1975 DOLLARS
1,000     1,200     1,400

-------
                                     --42-
                                   FlGURE  13
                      PROJECTED ANNUAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURES
                     OHIO INVESTOR-OWNED ELECTRIC UTILITIES
                       ORIGINAL  PROPOSED S02 REGULATIONS
S02 EXPENDITURES OTHER EXPENDITURES

154 []

445

590

291
1 1

1976 . ". 919

1977

1978
PERCENT INCREASE
TOTAL DUE TO
EXPENDITURES S02 CONTROL
1,073 16.7
1,317 1,762 33.8

1,420 2,010 41.6

1979
1,425 1,716 20.5
1 f |
1,000      500        0        500      1,000     1,500
           MILLIONS OF CONSTANT 1975 DOLLARS
    KEY:
    LI BASELINE EXPENDITURES
    I     I TSP 8 WATER EXPENDITURES
    fcTyl S02 EXPENDITURES

-------
                                         -43-

                                       FlGURE 14
                 PROJECTED CUMULATIVE EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIREMENTS
                           JANUARY L 1976-DECEMBER 31,1979
                           ORIGINAL PROPOSED S02 REGULATION
S02 FINANCING OTHER FINANCING

8.5

352.6[^3T?.-

208.9

286.1

69.1

333.6 . ,

56.9
30.l[
(ill

OHIO ijij. 7
v/ALLE •L^>/

•V.OHIO POWER

CINCINNATI GAS
':•: . & ELECTRIC
KEY: so2 CONTROL
{•:'.".'. 1 BASELINE FINANCING
| | TSP & WATER FINANCING
|gฃig S02 FINANCING 5^
442.3 79.7
468.5 44.6

-':'.': '' CLEVELAND ELECTRIC eye 7 JiO h
--'•'•• & ILLUMINATING vu>J -ซ..n

TOLEDO SDtSON
454.3 15.2

•;...:•':' . . OHIO EBISON 915.8 36.4

"": 5ftTION POWER' •'•
V': ; ^ L3C-HT

439.1 13.0
COLUMBUS S SOUTH- ?qo o 71:
ERN OHtO ELECTRIC 3™'c> ' >y
1 I 1 1
1 i \ > 1 ' 1 J. ' ' I
400  300  200  100   0    100   200  300  400   500  600  700  800  900  1,000
               MILLIONS  OF  CONSTANT  1975 DOLLARS

-------
                                             15
                    PROJECTED ANNUAL EXTERNAL FINANCING REQUIREMENTS
                         OHIO INVESTOR-OWNED ELECTRIC UTILITIES
                            ORIGINAL PROPOSED  S02  REGULATIONS
         S02 FINANCING   OTHER  FINANCING
                                                                  PERCENT INCREASE

154

140

578
"— • --. in IT,..

175
!*..'
1 1
' IUIAL DUE TO
FINANCING SOj CONTROL
1976 574 728 26.9

1977 1,076 1,516 40.9

1978 1,063 1,641 54.3

1979 1,225 1,400 14.2
1 \ I
1,000      500        0         500      1,000     1,500
            MILLIONS  OF  CONSTANT  1975  DOLLARS
     KEY:
     1. . ;;•;) BASELINE  FINANCING
     f   I TSP  8  WATER FINANCING
     ESSS S02  FINANCING

-------
                              -45-
The original S00 regulations would have caused an increase in
               ^
external financing requirements for the years 1976,  1977, 1978,
and 1979 of 26.9, 40.9, 54.3, and 14.2 percent,  respectively.
The total external financing requirements for the period 1976-
1979 would have been $3,938 million for non-S02  items and
$1,347 million for S00 control.
                                                           TBS

-------
                           -46-
                        APPENDIX A
                SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL DATA
          The following tables give all the financial data

used in developing the conclusions of this report.   Each of

the investor-owned utilities in Ohio was modeled four times
          Baseline—Excludes all expenditures for
          pollution control equipment (PCE) on existing
          power plants in Ohio.   Includes all other
          planned expenditures on plant and equip-
          ment including PCE expenditures on existing
          plants outside Ohio and new plants.

          TSP & Water—Excludes  all PCE expenditures
          for S02 removed on existing plants.  In-
          cludes Baseline plus PCE expenditures for
          meeting particular (TSP) regulations and
          effluent guidelines on existing plants and
          all PCE expenditures on new plants.  PCE
          costs for TSP and water were provided by
          the EPA.

          Revised S02 Regulation—Includes costs of
          complying with the revised S02 regulations
          in addition to the Baseline and expendi-
          tures to meet the TSP and water regulations.

          Original SO? Regulations—Includes costs of
          complying with the original proposed SO2
          regulations in addition to the Baseline
          and expenditures to meet the TSP and water
          regulations.
          The column headings are defined as follows:
          CAP EXP—Capital expenditures:  Annual cash
          outlays made for plant and equipment (in-
          cluding construction work in progress) plus
          allowance for funds used during construction
          (millions of 1975 dollars).
                                                            TBS

-------
                   -47-
EXT FIN—External Financing:  Annual amount
of funds which must be raised in financial
markets through issuance of long-term debt,
preferred stock, common stock, and short-
term debt (millions of 1975 dollars).

OPER REV--Operating Revenues:   Annual revenues
required by operating and maintenance costs,
fuel costs, interest charges,  depreciation
charges, and income and property taxes (mil-
lions of 1975 dollars).

O&M EXP—Operating and Maintenance Expenses:
Annual operating and maintenance expendi-
tures including fuel costs (millions of 1975
dollars).

CONS CHRG—Consumer Charges:  Average cost (in
1975 mills) of electricity per kilowatt-hour
sold.  Determined by dividing annual operating
revenues by the total kilowatt-hour  sales for
the year.
                                                  TBS

-------
                             -48-
                          APPENDIX A
                 SUMMARY-OF FINANCIAL DATA
CINCINNATI GAS  &  ELECTRIC COMPANY

     Baseline
                             EXT
                             FIN


1976
1977
197B
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
TSP &


I97b
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
73.60
152.33
181.64
191 .90
185.99
195.19
212.06
217.25
210.31
255.98
Water
CAP
EXP
79.62
169.68
204.54
203.16
185.99
195.19
212.06
217.25
210.31
255.98
                           27,
                          107,
   ,08
   ,44
142.32
139.03
123.15
                          126
                          150
                          151
                          126
 ,49
 ,54
 ,69
 ,94
                          173.41
                           33
                          124
                          164
                          146
EXT
FIN

 ,05
 ,57
 ,67
 .17
119.95

123.46
147.69
149.00
124.40
171.00
           OPER
            REV
         361 ,
         385,
         413,
         442,
    61
    09
    65
    20
500.59

544.45
593.03
642.50
729.32
780.42
                                       OPER
                                        REV
361
386,
416,
450
               95
               31
               02
               37
                                     514.13

                                     557.50
                                     605.60
                                     654.59
                                     742.11
                                     792.74
                       201 ,
                       215,
                       232,
                       238
   0>M
   EXP

     11
     66
     47
     42
                                                 264.58
                       286,
                       312,
                       339,
                       372,
     11
     06
     31
     10
                    401 .90
201 ,
215
232
241
0 + M
EXP

 11
 66
 47
 36
                    267.56
                    289,
                    315,
                    342
                    375,
                11
                09
                37
                18
                    405.11
Note:  All figures ~in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
      Consumer Charges  (CONS CHRG)3  which are in mills per
      kilowatt-hour.
                         CONS
                         CHRG
          28,
          27,
          28,
          28
          30

          30
          31
          31
          33
    10
    80
    11
    36
    14

    92
    54
    99
    94
                                    34.04
 CONS
 ChRG

28.13
27.89
28.27
28.88
30.95

31.66
32.21
32.59
34.54
34.57

-------
                               -49-
 CINCINNATI GAS & ELECTRIC COMPANY  (cON'l)

      Revised S00 Regulation
                                         OPER
                                          REV

                                       362.38
                                       387.85
                                       419.00
                                       459.81
                                       530.21

                                       572.88
                                       620.27
                                       668.57
                                       756.91
                                       806.76


I97b
1977
I97d
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
198^
1985
	 ^ 	
CAP
EXP
87.20
191 .57
233.42
217.36
185.99
195.19
212.06
217.25
210.31
255.98
EXT
FIN
40.58
146.17
192.85
154.75
115.52
1 19.28
143.74
145.27
120.89
167.69
201
215
232,
243
270,

291,
317,
344,
377,
0 + M
EXP

 11
 66
 47
 86
 10

 67
 66
 95
 77
407.79
 CONS
 CHRG

28.16
28.00
28.47
29.49
31 .92

32.54
32.99
33.29
35.22
35.19
      Original S09 Regulation


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
103.72
239.22
296.29
248.28
185.99
195.19
212.06
217.25
210.31
255.98
EXT
FIN
56.98
193.20
254.21
173.00
105.45
109.78
134.77
136.81
112.90
160.16
OPER
REV
363.31
391.19
425.49
486.84
571 .63
612.68
658.47
705.20
795.25
843.37
0 + M
EXP
201.11
215-66
232.47
255.16
281 .47
303.09
329.13
356.48
389.34
419.55
CONS
CHRG
28.23
28.24
28.91
31 .22
34.41
34.80
35.02
35.11
37.01
36.78
Note:  All figures in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
      Consumer Charges (CONS CHRG),  which are in mills per
      kilowatt-hour.

-------
                                -50-



CLEVELAND ELECTRIC  ILLUMINATING COMPANY

     Baseline


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
130.21
248.10
221.38
237.75
264.92
275.84
290.68
357.05
432.18
455.44
EXT
FIN
69.72
264.98
1^6.41
156.49
201.39
178.07
196.23
272.59
303.11
330.03
OPER
REV
479.45
553.28
617.10
654.65
713.73
764.71
813.93
857.77
946.32
996.68
0 + M
EXP
295.44
328.88
337.94
360 .07
389.72
403.85
416.71
426.34
437.28
447.07
CONS
ChRG
28.10
30.09
31 .57
31 .66
32.65
33.30
33.70
33.82
35.58
35.51
     TSP & Water


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
134.57
260.70
238.05
245.96
264.92
275.84
290.68
357.05
432.18
455.44
EXT
FIN
74.05
277.40
162.66
161.18
198.55
175.40
193.71
270.21
300.87
327.92
OPER
REV
479.67
554.06
618.56
660.25
723.23
773.71
822.45
865.82
954.76
1004.58
0 + M
EXP
295.44
328.88
337.94
361.32
391 .00
405.15
418.01
427.65
438.60
448.40
CONS
CHRG
28.12
30.13
31 .64
31 .93
33.09
33.69
34.05
34.14
35.89
35.79
Note:   All figures in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
       Consumer Charges  (CONS CHRG)3 which are in mills per
       kilowatt-hour.
T
B
S

-------
                              -51-
CLEVELAND ELECTRIC ILLUMINATING  COMPANY
ฃ, 	
CAP
EXP
1976
1977
1978
1979
19C50
1981
1982
1983
1984
1 985
155,
321*
318*
285*
264.
275 *
290.
35 7 ซ
432*
455.
63
6?
76
73
92
04
68
05
18
44
95
337
241
136
1S7
164
103
260
29:1.
319
EXT
FIN
,00
,58
"7 /
ซ O O
,29
,00
,57
1 •!">
, "ป /
,.. _ ,
* v/ /
,78
,35
   OPER
    KEY

 430,75

 625,63
 633.49
 771,13


 319.82
 (J t.t 1.11 * / v.1

 "/ y > 4 o *•..
^ *u> *Y / * *'- *„
                                                     CHM
                                                     EXP

                                                  295.44
                                                  320*00
                                                  337.94
                                                  370,57
                                                  400,66

                                                  414,99
                                                  427,97
                                                  ~r >.J .' ป / 3
                                                  * A /ซk •". ~J
                                                  ••-r •-ป (.* . / /
                                                  458*67
                           CONS
                           CHUG

                          > r'<  •( r t
                          .. O ป .1. i.*
                          ,30, o4
                                 A'..
                                     .t'.t
                                     •• t
                                     ..' J
     Original S00  Regulation


1976
1977
1978
1979
I960
1981
1983
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
167.48
355.78
363.87
307.96
264.92
275.84
290.68
357.05
432.18
455.44
                           106,
                           371,
                           285,
                           198,
EXT
FIN

 70
 22
 35
 10
                           178.58
                           156,
                           175,
                           253,
                           285,
 56
 94
 46
 08
                           313.03
                                        OPER
                                         REV
481 ,
559
629,
711,
     35
     94
     58
     79
        805.14
 852
 898
 938
1030
     47
     02
     22
     59
        1076.67
   0 + M
   EXP

295.44
328.88
337.94
381.02
411.54

426.07
439.20
449.05
460.20
470.19
 Note:  All figures -in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
       Consumer Charges (CONS CURG)> which are in mills per
       kiloDatt-hour.
 CONS
 CHRG

28.21
30.45
32.21
34.42
36.83

37.12
37.18
36.99
38.74
38.36

-------
                                -52-



COLUMBUS  AND SOUTHERN OHIO  ELECTRIC  COMPANY

     Baseline
CflP
EXP
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
198ฃ
1983
1984
1985
79
1ฃ6
139
14ฃ
1 39
154
185
190
191
T' •?' -r>
.ฃ9
.43
.68
.76
.64
.95
. 33
.ฃ5
.06
.81
EXT
FIN
55
87
101
110
13ฃ
10ฃ
161
150
168
157
.ฃ6
.93
.97
.55
.08
.60
.96
.38
.73
.05
DPER 0+M
REV
ฃ55
300
331
361
391
4ฃฃ
460
494
560
600
.38
.08
.35
.93
.35
.90
•-i --.
ป •!' •_'
.91
.35
.16
EXP
153
163
18ฃ
190
199
ฃฃ0
C-vl'-J
ฃ56
ฃ73
30ฃ
.68
.74
.68
.58
.68
.18
.09
.93
.4ฃ
.01
cans
CHRG
31
34
36
o r'
37
C* '!•
39
39
4ฃ
4ฃ
.53
.81
. 09
. 0 0
.66
.33
.31
.84
.53
.96
      TSP & Water


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
198ฃ
1983
1984
1985
-, -

84
140
158
15ฃ
139
154
185
1 9 0
191
ฃ3ฃ
CFlP
EXP
.19
• t'O
.51
. 06
.64
.95
.-,.-,
• •_' • J
.ฃ5
.06
O 1
.0 1


60
101
1ฃ0
116
1ฃ9
100
159
148
166
155
EXT
FIN
.!ฃ
.94
•-. '"I
a wi._l
.40
•-,*-!
• •—•*-•
.05
.55
.11
.59
.03
DPER

ฃ55
300
--!•-• --t
•.' •-• L_
368
40ฃ
433
470
504
570
6 09
REV
.61
.87
.84
•-i •-.
• C.O
.37
.43
.51
• ฃ>
-------
                              -53-
COLUMBUS  AND SOUTHERN OHIO  ELECTRIC COMPANY  (cON'l)

     Revised S00 Regulation


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
	 A 	
CAP
FXP
88.19
152.19
173.86
159.64
139.64
154.95
185.33
190.25
191 .06
232.81
EXT
FIN
64.09
113.35
135.29
121.14
127.15
97.95
157.57
146.24
164.83
153.37
                                         OPER
                                          REV
                                      255,
                                      301 ,
                                      334,
                                      374,
                                      443
                                      480
                                      513
                                      580
79
52
06
82
                                      412.74
43
18
94
50
153,
163.
182,
195.
205.

225,
238,
262'
279,
0 + M
EXP

 68
 74
 68
 95
 18

 63
 ,66
 .48
 ,09
 CONS
 CHRG

31.58
34.98
36.38
38.32
39.72
40,
41
41
44
19
01
37
06
                                      619.28
        307.63
             44.33
     Original SO^ Regulation
CRP

1976
1977
1973
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
19S4
1985

1-1 -7
'_' 1
150
171
158
139
154
185
190
191
•-I -"I -'I
L_-_'L_
EXP
.66
.67
.84
.64
.64
.95
•-i •-.
. •-' •_<
.25
.06
.81

63
111
133
120
127
97
157
146
164
153
EXT
FIN
.57
.84
.31
.ฃฃ
.17
.96
.58
.ฃ6
.84
. 3 8
a PER
REV
ฃ55
301
•-i •-. •-<
•j --' -I1
378
415
446
^1 c> -T.
•T •-••-•
5 1 6
583
6ฃฃ
"-?—?
• f I
.44
.90
• -I'll.
.68
.38
.!ฃ
.89
.34
.15
153
163
182
1 99
ฃ 08
ฃฃ9
ฃ42
ฃ66
282
311
DH-M
EXP
.68 '
.74
.68
.48
.71
.17
.ฃ0
. 03
.65
.ฃ0
cnr-i3
CHRG
31
-, 4
1'T
36
"~i i~ i
1ซO
40
40
41
41
44
44
.58
.97
•"i -7
. •-' 1
.68
. 0 0
.46
.ฃ6
.61
.ฃ8
.53
Note:  All figures in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
      Consumer Charges  (CONS CHRG), which are in mills per
      kilowatt-hour.

-------
                              -54-
DAYTON POWER & LIGHT COMPANY

     Baseline


1976
1977
1976
1979
i960
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
56.12
130.90
161.31
171.58
168.49
177.84
189.24
183.99
168.86
203.99
EXT
FIN
22.60
98.18
141.83
129.10
117.73
152.12
139.62
121.88
108.07
136.19
OPER
REV
286.20
304.46
328.52
358.99
397.74
433.80
473.55
516.06
588.84
629.24
0 + M
EXP
169.41
180.67
196.37
209.65
221.96
237.91
259.17
282.66
309.89
332.64
CONS
CHRG
31 .34
31.51
32.05
33.04
34.52
35.51
36.58
37.59
40.45
40.77
     TSP & Water


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
61.50
146.47
181.97
161 .77
168.49
177.84
189.24
183.99
168.86
203.99
                             27,
                            113,
                            162,
                            135,
EXT
FIN

 95
 55
 02
 54
                            114.79
                            149,
                            137,
                            119
                            105
 35
 01
 41
 74
                            133.99
  OPER
   REV

286.49
305.48
330.39
366.29
409.87

445.29
484.43
526.37
599.63
639.54
169,
180
196,
212
0 + M
EXP

 41
 67
 37
 32
                    224.59
240,
261 -
285.
312,
 51
 77
 27
 47
                    335.37
 Note:  All figures  -in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
        Consumer Charges (CONS CHRG), which are in mills per
        kilowatt-hour.
                                                                 CONS
                                                                 ChRG
31
31
32
33
36
37
38
41
,38
,61
,24
,71
             35.58
,45
,42
.34
.19
             41 .44

-------
                               -55-
DAYTON POWER  & LIGHT COMPANY

     Revised  S0n Regulation


1976
I97f
1978
197S)
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
193S
	 ^ 	
CAP
FXP
63.70
152.81
190.39
185.93
168.49
177.84
189.24
183.99
168.36
203.99
EXT
FIN
30.12
119.82
170.24
138.25
113.67
148.29
136.00
1 18.46
104.84
133. 14
                                         OPER
                                          REV
                                       286
                                       305
                                       331
                                       369
                                       414
,61
,69
,16
.33
.90
                                       450.08
                                       489.00
                                       530.71
                                       604.20
                                       643.87
   0 + M
   EXP

    ,41
    ,67
    ,37
213.53
225.79
169,
180,
196,
        241,
        262.
        286,
        313
    72
    98
    48
    68
                      CONS
                      CHRG
31,
31 ,
32,
33,
36
37
38
41
   39
   66
   31
   99
             36.01
   85
   77
   66
   51
        336.60
             41 .72
      Original SO^  Regulation


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
67.94
165.10
206.69
193.98
168.49
177.84
189.24
183.99
168.86
203.99
EXT
FIN
34.34
131.96
186.17
143.48
111.50
146.24
134.06
116.63
103.11
131.51
OPER
REV
286.84
306.70
332.64
376.86
426.30
461 .02
499.50
540.80
614.72
653.94
0 + M
EXP
169.41
180.67
196.37
217.47
229.73
245.66
266.93
290.44
317.65
340.61
CONS
CHRG
31 .41
31.74
32.46
34.68
37.00
37.74
38.58
39.39
42.23
42.37
Note:  All figures in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
      Consumer Charges (CONS CHRG), which are in mills per
      kilowatt-hour.

-------
                                -56-
OHIO  EDISON  COMPANY

      Baseline


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
198^
1985
CAP
EXP
270.42
264.52
287.25
329.73
349.36
351.55
370.90
433.77
481.28
509.58
EXT
FIN
176.25
205.04
216.83
241.85
297.02
343.42
248.20
299.19
352.50
360.43
OPER
REV
544.52
647.17
691.15
746.05
814.59
876.69
932.04
S>35.66
1099.08
1162.44
0 + M
EXP
339.46
362.24
382.68
420.59
450.64
461 .75
471 .29
478.33
490.38
50 1 .44
CONS
CHRG
29.51
33.20
33.66
34.51
35.79
36.60
37.00
37.24
39.54
39.81
      TSP & Water


I97b
1977
I97d
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
198^
1985
CAP
FXP
278.9^
289.2?
320.12
345.99
349.36
351.55
370.90
433.77
4.= 1.26
509.58
EXT
FIN
184.73
229.49
249.07
252. 4fl
292.63
3^4.31
244.31
295.51
349.02
357.14
OPER
REV
54^.93
648.53
693.46
757.27
834. 17
895.56
950.17
1003.05
1117.48
1 179.97
0 + M
EXP
339.46
362.24
382.68
424.91
655.12
466.27
475.82
482.86
494.94
506.03
CONS
CHRG
29.53
33.27
33.78
35.03
36.65
37.39
37.72
37.89
40.20
40.41
Note:  All figures in millions of 1975 constant  dollars except
       Consumer Charges (CONS CHRG), which are in mills per
       kilowatt-hour.

-------
                               -57-
 OHIO EDISON COMPANY


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1901
1982
1903
1984
1905
	 ^, 	
CAP
EXP
**> r% / **" •(
*~ O O + O .1.
310.58
348.54
360,04
349.36
351.55
370.90
433.77
481.23
509.53
EXT
F I N
172.05
250 ซ 63
276 . 95
261. ,63
298,90
' 340.73
240,92
292.30
345.93
354.26
                                         OPER
                                          REV

                                       545,30
                                       649.70
                                       695,^6
                                       763.37
                                       852,40

                                       913.16
                                       967,14
                                      1019,39
                                      1134.63
                                      1196,40
   OKI
   EXP

339.46
362,24
382.68
429,96
47 I. ,40
430,96
433,01
500,11
5:1 1 ,22
 CGN3
 CUM
o 0 , 13
33,39
33,51
40., 32
4 0 - 9 6
      Original SO^ Regulation


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
316.70
398.62
465.69
417.99
349.36
351.55
370.90
433.77
481.28
509.58
EXT
FIN
222.26
337.77
391 .88
297.48
271.52
324.28
225.35
277.57
332.05
341.08
OPER
REV
546.79
654.56
703.70
808.88
921.95
979.71
1030.68
1079.99
1198.53
1256.79
0ซ-M
EXP
339.46
362.24
382.68
444.09
474.63
485.88
495.48
502.56
514.72
525.89
CONS
CHRG
29.63
33.58
34.28
37.42
40.50
40.90
40.91
40.80
43.11
43.04
      \
Note:  All figures in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
      Consumer Charges (CONS CHRG), which are in mills per
      kilowatt-hour.

-------
                                 -58-
OHIO POWER  COMPANY

      Baseline


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
19S4
1985


90
65
107
120
118
122
126
149
226
3.20
CAP
EXP
.65
.36
.38
.67
.47
.20
.06
.04
+ 37
.22


31
9
46
295
25
60
101
132
. 143
231
EXT
FIN
.84
.43
, 1 1
.31
.31
.39
.39
,43
.03
.95
OPER Q-fซ

841
879
928
967
1040
1.109
1188
1270
1317
1348
REV
.56
.13
.4.2
.72
.18
. 36
.72
.79
.66
.53

519
559
602
636
700
764
836
9.1.1
941
958
EXP
.56
.78
.17
.28
.97
,51
,89
* 36
,85
,45
CONS
CHRG
19
19
19
19
20
20
19
19
20
21
,74
,43
.55
,98
.12
,01
,94
,97
.62
.40
      TSP &  Water


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
19S1
1982
1933
1984
1985


97
84
132
133
118
1 r?ry
126
149
226
320
CAP
EXP
.24
.44
.70
...1.7
.47
.20
.06
.04
.37
/•)/•}
* *- *~


38
28
71
304
T>'2
57
98
129
140
229
EXT
FIN
.43
.48
. 34
.03
,55
.74
.86
.98
.49
,38
OPER

841
880
930
975
1053
1 122
1201
1283
1329
1361
REV
.95
.36
,38
.54
.35
.29
.46
.24
,87
.20

519
559
602
639
704
768
840
915
946
962
0+M
EXP
, 56
.78
. 1 7
,65
•> 5b
ซ 30
.93
.65
.24
,90
CONS
CHRG
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
.75
.45
.59
. 14
,37
.25
.15
. 1 6
.8:1.
.60
Note:  All figures -in millions  of 1975 constant dollars  except
       Consumer Charges (CONS CHRG)3 which are in mills  per
       kilowatt-hour.

-------
                              -59-
OHIO POWER COMPANY

     Revised S00 Regulation
     -1--• •• -•           ~ -   ""'• ~—-"
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980

1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
   CAP
   EXP

104,31
104,38
159,33
146,56
118,47

122,20
126,06
149,04
226,37
320,22
                             EXT
                             FIN

                           45,49
                           48,90
                           98,33
                          309,40
                           51.28
                           92,54
                          123,81
                          134,63
                          223,85
   OPER
    REV

 342,37
 881,67
 932,96
 986,92
1069,02

.1.137,00
1214,73
1296,33
1342,41
1372,69
   0+M
   EXP

519,56
559,73
602,17
642,06
707,03

770,35
843,56
918,36
948,99
965,67
 CONS
 CHRG

19,76
19,43
19,64
20,38
20,68
20,37
20,37
21 , 01
21,79
     Original  S0?  Regulation


1976
1977
1978
1979
1930
1981
1982
1983
1934
1985


137
200
286
208
1 1 3
122
1.26
149
226
320
CAP
EXP
,23
,14
,23
,96
,47
,20
, 06
,04
,37
,22


73
143
jd, *- *-
349
-1
34
76
109
120
2 1 0
EXT
FIN
,39
,31
,76
,89
,21
,95
,99
,03
,7.1.
,83
OPER





344
337
943
REV
,29
, 5 6
t '2. 3
1023, w5
1
1
1
1
1
1
128
194
2'.'70
349
395
422
, 4 7
,62
,60
.56
,92
,84
0
•fri
EXP
519,
559,
602.
649 ,
715>
779,
352,
927,
953,
975,
56
73
1.7
88
1 7
32
39
57
35
1 3
C
C
19
19
19
21
21
21
21
21
21
22
ONS
HRO
,80
,61
.86
,12
,83
,55
. 3 .!.
,20
,84
,58
Note:  All figures  in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
      Consumer Charges (CONS CRRG), which are in mills per
      kilowatt-hour.

-------
                               -60-



OHIO VALLEY  ELECTRIC CORPORATION

     Baseline


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
26.75
62.70
40.93
8.58
.70
.69
.68
.66
.65
.64
EXT
FIN
24.74
57.76
32.83
3.58
.00
.00
.00
-5.88
-5.62
-5.38
OPER
REV
181.21
184.98
188.47
194.36
205.56
209.41
213.26
212.76
217.33
222.15
0 + M
EXP
156.44
161.00
166.68
173.61
181.37
186.56
191.92
197.45
203.14
209.02
CONS
CHRG
9.93
10.14
10.33
10.66
11.27
11 .48
11.69
11.66
11.91
12.18
      TSP & Water


1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
29.53
70.90
52.04
15.20
.70
.69
.68
.66
.65
.64
                              EXT
                              FIN

                            27.40
                            65.36
                            42.59
                             9.35
                              .00

                              .00
                              .00
                            -7.42
                            -7.10
                            -6.79
  OPER
   REV
181
185,
188
196
212,
216,
217,
221
34
35
96
31
209.03
79
53
35
62
156.
161 ,
166,
174,
0*M
EXP

 44
 00
 68
 71
226.17
182.47

187.67
193.03
198.56
204.26
210.14
                     CONS
                     CHRG
 9
10
10
10
11
,94
,16
,36
,76
,46
          11.67
          11.87
          11.92
          12.15
          12.40
 Note:  All figures -in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
       Consumer Charges (CONS CHRG)^ which are in mills per
       kilowatt-hour.

-------
                                -61-
OHIO VALLEY ELECTRIC  CORPORATION

     Revised S00 Regulation


1976
1977
1973
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
29.53
70.90
52.04
15.20
.70
.69
.68
.66
.65 •
.64
EXT
FIN
27.40
65.36
42.59
9.35
.00
.00
.00
-7.42
-7.10
-6.79
OPER
REV
181 .34
185.35
188.96
196.31
209.03
212,79
216.53
217.35
221.62
226.17
0 + M
EXP
156-44
161 .00
166.68
174.71
132-47
187.67
193.03
198.56
204.26
210.14
CONS
CHRG
9.94
10.16
10.36
10.76
11.46
11.67
11.87
11.92
12.15
12.40
      Original S00  Regulation


1976
1977
I97d
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
30.45
73.61
55.72
17.39
.70
.69
.68
.66
.65
.64
EXT
FIN
28.28
67.88
45.83
•1 1 .26
.00
.00
.00
-7.93
-7.59
-7.26
OPER
REV
181 .38
185.47
189.12
197.71
210.94
214.66
218.37
219.62
223.80
228.26
0 + M
EXP
156.44
161 .00
166.68
175.82
183.59
188.79
194.15
199.68
205.39
21 1 .27
CONS
CHPG
9.94
10.17
10.37
10.84
11 .56
11 .77
11.97
12.04
12.27
12.51
Note:  All figures in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
       Consumer Charges  (CONS CHRG), which are in mills per
       kilowatt-hour.

-------
                              -62-
TOLEDO EDISON  COMPANY

     Baseline


I97b
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
152.77
152.18
129.32
146.35
171 .89
170.94
150.42
160.07
190. Ob
201 .23
                              FXT
                              FIN

                           127.94
                           133.43
                           88.05
                           Q9.54
                           125.03
                           111
                           110
                           87
                           118
 07
 51
 12
 77
                           144.76
   REV

223.52
243.94
272.57
283.90
312.79

345.55
374.24
395.32
442.29
469.83
                    133
                    137
                    125.
                    133,
          0 + M
          EXP

           63
           52
           58
           05
                    146.02
154
161
164
169
           93
           89
           69
           46
                    174.03
          CONS
          ChRG

         30.97
         31 .94
         33.97
         34.31
         35.15

         35.65
         35.46
         35.52
         37.89
         38.14
     TSP  & Water


I97b
1977
1978
197-*
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
CAP
EXP
153.43
154.09
131 .84
147.59
171 .89
170.94
150.42
160.07
190.06
201 .23
                           128
                           135
                            90
                            99,
EXT
FIN

 59
 31
 50
 90
                           124.27

                           1 10.36
                           109.84
                            86.49
                           118.18
                           144.20
                                        OPER
                                         REV
 223
 244
 272,
 284,
        346,
        375,
        396,
        443
56
07
81
93
        314.37
     98
     53
     48
     45
        470.86
 133
 137
 125.
 133.
 146,

 155,
 162.
 164,
 169,
 1 74,
0 + M
EXP

 68
 52
 58
 19
 16

 08
 04
 84
 61
 18
 CONS
 CHRG

30.97
31.96
34.00
34.44
35.32

35.80
35.58
35.62
37.99
38.22
Note: All figures in millions of 1975 constant dollars except
      Consumer Charges (CONS CHRG)} which are in mills per
      kilowatt-hour.

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                                -63-
TOLEDO EDISON COMPANY (cON'l)

      Revised S0n Regulation


I97o
1977
1978
197^
I960
19R1
1982
I98j
]9RH
I9flb
	 A 	
CAP
FXP
160.56
174. A7
159.08
161 .02
171 .^Q
170 .94
150.42
160.07
190. Ob
20 1 .33
EXT
F IN
135.65
155.58
116.97
107.08
1 19. 19
105.57
105.33
82.25
114.19
140 .44
                                         OPER
223.95
245.45
275.39
296.61
332.22

363.96
391.63
41 1 .68
^59.21
   0 + M
   EXP

133.68
137.52
125.58
137.65
150.74

159.73
166.71
16Q.49
174.26
178.84
CONS
ChRQ
                                                                31
                                                                32
                                                                34
                                                                35
                                                                37
                                                                37
                                                                36
                                                                39,
 .03
 ,14
 ,32
 ,84
                                                                37.33
  55
  10
  99
  34
                                                               39.42
      Original S00  Regulation


1976
1977
I 97b
1979
198U
1981
1982
1983
1984
198s
CAP
EXP
161 .68
177.92
163.38
163.13
171 .89
170.94
150.42
160.07
190.06
201.23
EXT
FIN
136.77
158.77
121 . 14
106.70
116.97
103.49
103.37
80.41
112.47
138.83
OPER
REV
224.02
245.67
275.79
298.86
335.25
366.62
393.87
413.49
460.84
486.91
0 + M
EXP
133.68
137.52
125.58
137.42
150.66
159.73
166.72
169.47
174.20
178.77
CONS
CHRG
31 .04
32.16
34.37
36.11
37.67
37.82
37.32
37.15
39.48
39.52
Note:  All figures -Cn millions of 1975 constant dollars except
      Consumer Charges  (CONS CHRG), which are in mills per
      kilowatt-hour.
T
B
S

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                            -64-

                         APPENDIX B
           COSTS OF POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGIES
          The following chart shows the type of pollution
control strategies and their associated costs provided to
TBS for use in this analysis.

          The capital costs and 0/M (operating and maintenance,
including fuel) costs shown are in 1975 dollars and do not
include the cost of replacing,  operating,  or installing pol-
lution control equipment on the derated capacity.   The cost
of replacing and operating the  derated capacity was included
when performing the analysis.

          These costs came from a variety  of sources.   The
costs of meeting particulate regulations and effluent  guide-
lines were provided by EPA and  PEDCO.   The costs involved
with complying with the proposed and revised SCU regulations
were provided by Energy and Environmental  Analysis (EEA) and
PEDCO.  The derate figures were provided by EEA and modified
by TBS to reflect installation  of pollution control equipment
on the replacement capacity.

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                                                                        Appendix  B
                                                CAPITAL AND OPERATING COSTS OF POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGIES


                                                            (costs 1n millions of 1975 dollars)
Company
Dayton Power and Light Company
Columbus & Southern Ohio Electric
Company
Cincinnati Gas and Electric
Company
Ohio Valley Electric Company
Toledo Edison Company
Cleveland Electric Illuminating
Ohio Edison Company
Ohio Power Company
Municipals & Cooperatives
Participate (TSP)
Capital1 0/M2 Derate3
Cost Cost (mw)
$17.51 $1.02 5.04
21.91 1.28 6.31
33.73 1.95 9.69
10.62 1.08 5.35
1.73 0.10 0.49
15.55 0.90 4.47
40.12 2.33 11.54
24.21 1.41 6.96
_
Effluent Guidelines
Capital1 0/M2 Derate3
Cost Cost (nw)
$15.97 $0 7.02
9.91 0 11.46
7.08 0 7.50
.
3.19 0 0
16.61 0 0
15.18 0 18.9
17.10 0 21.3
-
Proposed S0? Regulations
Capital1 0/M2 Derate3
Cost Cost (mw)
$ 46.25 $ 4.57 7.74
25.24 6.50 3.71
173.53 11.98 29.96
6.71 1.11 0
50.58 1.33 35.26
208.38 9.35 127.21
266.73 16.23 57.91
235.99 17.74 50.56
.
Revised SO. Regulations
Capital1 0/M2 Derate3
Cost Cost (nv<)
$ 15.79 $1.06 2.81
28.63 2.88 5.21
54.96 1.95 9.67
_
49.43 3.15 15.22
152.43 4.71 62.65
52.78 4.37 9.96
50.72 1.77 8.89
15.96 3.20 6.40




0
01



 Capital ooata do not inalude cost of replacing the capacity  lost through derate or the cost of pollution control equipment for the replacement

 capacity.   In this analysis, this lost capacity uas replaced at a cost of $423 per kilouatt, in 1979 dollars, plus the cost of pollution control equipment.

2
 Operating and maintenance coats do not include the cost of operating the neu capacity which replaces the derate and the pollution control equipment

 installed on the neu capacity.   These costs were determined  and included in the course of this analysis.


 The amount of derate capacity uas increased by TBS to reflect  the installation of pollution control equipment on  the derate replacement capacity.


Source:  EPA, EEA, PEDCO

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