>EPA
              United States
              Environmental Protection
              Agency
               Office of Air Quality
               Planning and Standards
               MD-14
EPA-454/R-97-004f
July 1997
BMP Volume VI
Quality Assurance Procedures
                       U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                       Region 5, Library (PL-12J)

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                                     PREFACE
As a result of the more prominent role given to emission inventories in the 1990 Clean Air Act
Amendments (CAAA), inventories are receiving heightened priority and resources from the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), state/local agencies, and industry.  More than
accountings of emission sources, inventory data are now providing the prime basis for
operating permit fee systems, State Implementation Plan (SIP) development (including
attainment strategy demonstrations),  regional air quality dispersion modeling assessments, and
control strategy development.  This new emphasis on the use of emissions data will require
significantly increased effort by state/local agencies to provide adequate, accurate, and
transferrable information to meet various agency  and regional program needs.

Existing emission inventory data collection, calculation, management, and reporting
procedures are not sufficient or of high enough quality to meet all of these needs into the next
century.  To address these concerns, the Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP) was
created. The EIIP is a jointly sponsored endeavor of the State and Territorial Air Pollution
Program Administrators/Association of Local Air Pollution Control Officials
(STAPPA/ALAPCO) and the U.S. EPA, and is an outgrowth of recommendations put forth by
the Standing Air Emissions Work Group (SAEWG) of STAPPA/ALAPCO.  The EIIP Steering
Committee and technical committees are composed of state/local agency, EPA, industry,
consultant, and academic representatives.  In general, technical committee participation is open
to anyone.

The EIIP is defined as a program to develop and use standard procedures to  collect, calculate,
store, and report emissions data. Its ultimate goal is to provide cost-effective, reliable, and
consistent inventories through the achievement of the following objectives:

       •     Produce a coordinated system of data measurement/calculation methods as
             a guide for estimating current and  future source emissions;

       •     Produce consistent quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) procedures
             applicable to all phases of all inventory programs;
       •     Improve the EPA/state/local agency/industry system of data collection,
             reporting, and transfer;  and

       •     Produce an  integrated source data reporting procedure that consolidates the
             many current reporting requirements.

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EIIP goals and objectives are being addressed through the production of seven guidance and
methodology Volumes. These seven are:

       •     Volume I:           Introduction and Use of EIIP Guidance for Emissions
                                 Inventory Development
             Volume II:          Point Sources Preferred and Alternative Methods
             Volume III:         Area Sources Preferred and Alternative Methods
             Volume IV:         Mobile Sources Preferred and Alternative Methods
             Volume V:          Biogenics Sources Preferred and Alternative Methods
             Volume VI:         Quality Assurance Procedures
             Volume VII:        Data Management Procedures

The purpose of each Volume is to evaluate the existing guidance on emissions estimation
techniques, and, where applicable, to identify the preferred and alternative emission estimation
procedures.  Another important objective in each Volume is to identify gaps in existing
methods, and to recommend activities necessary to fill the gaps.  The preferred and alternative
method findings are summarized in clear, consistent procedures so that both experienced and
entry level inventory personnel can execute them with a reasonable amount of time and effort.
Sufficiently detailed references are provided to enable the reader to identify any  supplementary
information.  Users should note that  the number of source categories or topics covered in any
Volume is constantly expanding as a function of EIIP implementation and availability of new
information.

It is anticipated that the EIIP materials will become the guidance standard for the emission
inventory community.  For this reason, the production of EIIP Volumes will be  a dynamic,
iterative process where documents are updated over  time as better data and scientific
understanding support improved estimation, QA, and data management methods.  The number
of individual source categories addressed by the guidance will grow as well over time.  The
EIIP welcomes input and suggestion from all  groups and individuals on how the Volumes
could be improved.

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   VOLUME VI
QUALITY ASSURANCE PROCEDURES
January 1997
                       Prepared by:
                       Eastern Research Group, Inc.
                       Radian International, LLC

                       Prepared for:
                       Quality Assurance Committee
                       Emission Inventory Improvement Program

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                                  ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This document was prepared by Radian International, LLC,  and Eastern Research Group,
Inc., for the Quality Assurance Committee of the Emission Inventory Improvement Program.
Members of the Quality Assurance Committee are:

Tom Ballou, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality
Lee Beck, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division
Denise Bien, Ohio Department of Environmental Services
Victoria Chandler, North Carolina Department of Environment, Health and Natural Resources
Dan Herman, Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection
Sheila Holman, North Carolina Department of Environment, Health and Natural Resources
William Kuykendal, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Emission Factor and Inventory Group
Mena Shah, California Air Resources Board
Dale Shimp, California Air Resources Board
Jim Tomich, Bay Area Air Quality Management District

The other contributor and reviewer was:

Glenn Sappie,  North Carolina Department of Environment, Health and Natural Resources

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 VOLUME VI: CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION:
THE VALUE OF QA/QC
January 1997
                       Prepared by:
                       Eastern Research Group, Inc.

                       Prepared for:
                       Quality Assurance Committee
                       Emission Inventory Improvement Program

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                                 DISCLAIMER

This document was furnished to the Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP)
and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by Eastern Research Group, Morrisville,
North Carolina. This report is intended to be a final document and has been reviewed
and approved for publication. The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed
represent a consensus of the members of the Emission Inventory Improvement Program.
Mention of company or product names is not to be considered as an endorsement by the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

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CONTENTS
Section                                                   Page




1    Background	  1-1-1




2    The QA Program and Its Importance	  1.2-1




3    Objectives	  1-3-1




4    References 	  1-4-1
EIIP Volume VI                                                  111

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FIGURES
                                                   Page



1.2-1 Elements of ISO 14001 	 1.2-5
                                               EIIP Volume VI

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  1
 BACKGROUND
 The Clean Air Act (CAA) requires state and local air quality agencies to develop
 complete and accurate inventories as an integral part of their air quality management
 responsibilities.  These air emission inventories are used to evaluate air quality, track
 emission reduction levels, and set policy on a national and regional scale; however, they
 are often developed and compiled on a local level by multiple agencies and individuals.
 Experience with the 1990 State Implementation Plan (SIP) base year inventories
 brought to light deficiencies and inconsistencies in the inventory development processes
 now being used. In addition, the current leeway in selecting these processes has
 resulted in data sets of unknown  quality and varying degrees of completeness.  More
 uniform and  systematic approaches to collecting and reporting data are needed as well
 as, standardized procedures and guidance to eliminate variations in interpretation.

 To address the problems of the current inventory processes and comply with the CAA,
 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in conjunction with State and
 Territorial Air Pollution Program Administrators/Association of Local Air Pollution
 Control Officers (STAPPA/ALAPCO), has established the Emission Inventory
 Improvement Program (EIIP).  The EIIP comprises several committees with
 representatives from state and local agencies, EPA, and industry.  Its main goal is to
 improve the quality of the emissions  data collected as well as the manner in which data
 and information are transferred and  shared.

 The EIIP Quality Assurance Committee was formed to develop (1) a plan for the EIIP's
 quality  assurance (QA) program,  (2)  a  comprehensive QA source document of
 methodologies and tools for use in developing emission inventories, and (3) an  emission
 inventory quality rating system. This volume is the EIIP QA source document;  it
 incorporates all products prepared by the EIIP QA Committee including a model QA
 plan and a quality rating system.

 It is important to recognize that good quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC)
 procedures will only produce results that are as good as the estimation methodology
 allows.  Some emissions estimates are inherently more accurate than others because
 they are based on well-defined and well-understood processes and/or source-specific
 data.  For example, annual emissions estimates for a boiler with a continuous emissions
 monitor (CEM) should be of higher quality than estimates based on fuel use and  an
 emission factor. QA/QC procedures are required to ensure confidence in the estimates
 from both types of  methods.  However, the QA/QC procedures required for the CEM

EIIP Volume VI

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CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION                                                    1/6/97
data are more detailed and time-consuming than those required for the emission factor
approach, just as more effort is expended in acquiring the CEM data.

Because of the different emissions estimating methods that can be used, the EIIP
recognized that an inventory quality program had to address both emissions estimation
uncertainty and data quality. Uncertainty is largely a function of the estimation
methodology.  The quality of an estimate is determined partly by the inherent
uncertainty of the method as well as by the procedures used to ensure that errors are
minimized.  Therefore, the EIIP QA Committee  worked with the Point, Area, and
Mobile Sources Committees to ensure that inherent uncertainties in the emission
estimation methods are discussed as fully as possible in each chapter of the appropriate
emissions  estimation volumes (Volumes II, III, and IV).

In addition, a data attribute  rating system (DARS), originally developed by the EPA's
Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division  (APPCD) as a research tool, was adapted
and used to rank the EIIP point and area source methods. The DARS scores provide  a
means of assessing the relative merits of alternative approaches. The general issues
associated with uncertainty were also addressed by the EIIP's QA program. The uses of
uncertainty analysis and of rating systems such  as DARS are encouraged by the EIIP
QA program.  These methods  can serve as indicators of data quality, be used to identify
appropriate estimation methods, and help determine which sources are in need of
improvement.  Also, Chapter 4 of this volume focuses on the determination and
evaluation of uncertainty in emission estimates and the methodology available to do this.
                                                                       EIIP Volume VI

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 THE  QA   PROGRAM  AND  ITS

 IMPORTANCE	

 QA activities are essential to the development of comprehensive, high-quality emission
 inventories for any purpose.  Furthermore, a well-developed and well-implemented QA
 program fosters confidence in the inventory and any resulting regulatory and/or control
 program.

 An overall QA program comprises two distinct components. The first component is that
 of quality  control (QC), which is a system of routine technical activities implemented by
 inventory development personnel to measure and control the quality of the inventory as
 it is being developed.  The QC system is designed to:

      •     Provide routine and consistent checks and documentation points in the
            inventory development process to verify data integrity, correctness, and
            completeness;

      •     Identify and reduce errors and omissions;

      •     Maximize consistency within the inventory preparation and documentation
            process;  and

      •     Facilitate internal and external inventory review processes.

 QC activities include technical reviews, accuracy checks, and the use of approved
 standardized procedures for emission  calculations. These activities should be included
 in inventory development planning, data collection and analysis, emission calculations,
 and reporting.

 The second component of a QA program consists of external QA activities, which
 include a planned system of review and audit procedures conducted by personnel not
 actively involved in the inventory development process.  The key concept of this
 component is independent, objective review by a third party to assess the effectiveness
 of the internal QC program and the quality of the inventory, and to reduce or eliminate
 any inherent bias in the inventory processes. In addition to promoting the objectives of
 the QC system, a comprehensive QA review program provides the best available
EIIP Volume VI                                                             1.2-1

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 CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION	    1/6/97


 indication of the inventory's overall quality completeness, accuracy, precision,
 representativeness, and comparability of data gathered.

 A common  failure of many inventory development programs is that inadequate
 resources are devoted to QA/QC activities. A rule of thumb used by many QA
 professionals is that 10 percent of the in-kind resources of any project should be
 allocated to QA activities.  This does not include the costs of QC, which are assumed to
 be built into the process.

 The actual amount of effort spent in QA/QC of an inventory will vary depending on the
 desired quality and the complexity of the inventory. However, QA/QC efforts will
 generally be proportional to the effort expended on emission calculation.  For example,
 estimating an area source's volatile  organic compound  emissions using simple activity
 data (such as population) and an emission factor requires relatively little effort for both
 the calculation and the QA/QC checks. If a survey of local sources is used, resource
 expenditures for the calculation are increased.  Given that more resources are invested
 in emissions calculations, it is  logical to also invest more heavily in ensuring the quality
 of the data.

 It is essential to have a written plan for both the inventory preparation and the QA/QC
 procedures.  Planning includes an assessment of resources and available information.
 The purpose and end-use of an inventory will dictate the data quality objectives
 (DQOs).  (See Chapter 4 of this volume for more information about DQOs.) The
 DQOs and available information and resources will determine QA/QC procedures and
 the scope of the effort.

 Simple QA procedures, such as checking calculations and data input, can and should be
 implemented early and often in the process. More comprehensive (but also more
 expensive) procedures should target:

       •      Critical points in the process;

       •      Critical components of the inventory (e.g., larger or more important
             sources); and

       •      Areas or activities where problems are anticipated (e.g., if a complex
             model  is being used for the first time).

Too often, QA activities are concentrated at the end of the inventory process.  An
effective QA program will include planning, numerous  QC checks during inventory
development, and QA audits at strategic points  in the process. These strategic points
need to be identified in the planning stage and will vary somewhat between agencies

 1.2-2                                                                    EIIP Volume VI

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 //6/S7              	  	      CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION


 and inventories. However, the ideal QA program would include at least one audit
 conducted after the planning is completed and before the emissions calculations are
 more than 25 percent completed; another should occur near the end of the process to
 assure that the final products meet the DQOs. Other audits between these two points
 are desirable, but the exact scope, timing, and number of audits will depend on the
 DQOs and resources available as well as the procedures and methods being used to
 estimate emissions.

 Failure to implement and adhere to a QA program will almost certainly lead to
 undesirable consequences, such as:

       •     Contamination of subsequent calculations and decisions because of
             mistakes missed early in the process;

       •     Increased cost because work has to be redone;

       •     An incomplete and/or inaccurate inventory even if work is redone;

       •     Obstruction of the rule-making and enforcement processes;

       •     Establishment of regulations that are not realistic (emission estimates are
             based on incorrect emission factors,  emissions overestimated or allocated
             to wrong processes); and

       •     Embarrassment to all concerned.

 Therefore,  the  EIIP QA program strongly recommends that inventory personnel obtain
 the commitment of their  management to the quality program. This will require the
 commitment of resources to provide training and proper equipment (e.g., computers) as
 well as providing sufficient time for the inventory staff to get the work done.  This
 commitment of time and resources will ultimately pay off. In a presentation at a  1994
 Air and Waste Management Association conference, Boothe  and Chandler (1994),
 described the careful steps used by the North Carolina Division of Environmental
 Management (NCDEM)  to quality assure emissions  data for use in urban airshed
 modeling.  The authors conclude:

       Although the QA process can take significant time and effort. . . [it] will
       save time ultimately by reducing the processing of invalid emission files.
       In addition, a thorough QA system ensures confidence in the modeling
       results . . . [which] provides more confidence  in the resulting regulatory
       decisions.
EIIP Volume VI                                                                   1.2-3

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CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION                                                   1/6/97
The critical role played by management in supporting and maintaining quality systems is
the core of the emerging environmental management standards under development by
the International Standards Organization  (ISO). ISO 14000 standards can be
categorized into five groups:  environmental management systems, environmental audits,
environmental performance evaluation, environmental labeling, and life cycle
assessment.  Because these standards are  voluntary, they are not prescriptive.
Environmental Management Systems, the first standard  (ISO 14001), requires
conformance to the elements shown in  Figure 1.2-1.  The standard states that "top
management" must define the organization's environmental policy.  Among other things,
the policy must ensure continual improvement, must provide a framework for setting
and reviewing objectives, and must be documented.

ISO 14000 does not set environmental standards or criteria; rather, it specifies a system
for managing environmental quality.  As ISO 14000 standards are developed in the
future, the EIIP QA guidance should be compatible with the standard.  In particular, the
EIIP has  looked for ways to address the concept of continual improvement in emission
inventory quality and to introduce quantitative measures of the quality of emissions
estimates so that improvements can be  measured.
12-4                                                                  EHP Volume VI

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 1/6/97                                                CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION
                 Environmental Management System Requirements
    I.     Environmental Policy

    II.    Planning
          A.    Environmental aspects
          B.    Legal and other requirements
          C.    Objectives and targets
          D.    Environmental management programs

    III.    Implementation and Operation
          A.    Structure and responsibility
          B.    Training, awareness, and competence
          C.    Communication
          D.    Environmental management system documentation
          E.    Document control
          F.    Operational control
          G.    Emergency preparedness and response

    IV.    Checking and Corrective Action
          A.    Monitoring and measurement
          B.    Nonconformance and corrective and preventative action
          C.    Records
          D.    Environmental management system audit

    V.    Management Review
                    FIGURE 1.2-1. ELEMENTS OF ISO 14001

EIIP Volume VI                                                               1.2-5

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 CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION                                                      1/6/97
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1.2-6                                                                      EIIP Volume VI

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 OBJECTIVES
The objectives of the QA source document are to identify, improve, consolidate, and
document QA practices and procedures at all steps of the inventory development and
review processes. Tools, procedures, and methods useful for inventory QA/QC were
identified by surveying inventory experts in government agencies and in the private
sector.  These procedures are compiled in this document and linked to the appropriate
category of sources or stages in the overall inventory process.

This QA source document is intended  to be a "living" document that will be updated as
needed.  For example, several promising and potentially useful techniques for
performing sensitivity  analyses  and statical checks on emissions estimates are presented
in this document, but  specific details on implementation are not included. The scope of
the EIIP QA program does not extend to developing comprehensive "how to" steps for
each method.  Instead, an overview of methods is provided, with details and references
to more detailed studies supplied where available.  Future enhancements to  this
document will depend on the continuation of the EIIP itself,  and on feedback from the
users of this document.

Although this document focuses on the needs of state and local agencies, it can be used
by anyone in government, industry, or research institutions who is concerned about
inventory quality (general QA/QC information). For additional specific inventory
QA/QC information, refer to the specific QA/QC sections of other EIIP technical
documents.

A complete  glossary of terms used in the QA/QC process is included in Volume I of
this series. The methods and tools presented in this document are designed to reduce
the number  of procedural and technical errors. A procedural error is caused by the lack
of clear and effective management of the QA/QC process including, but not limited to,
inadequately trained staff, improper planning, lack of adequate QA, or lack of data
tracking and handling  protocols.  Technical errors are directly related to the methods
and technologies used to develop emission estimates. A technical error may result from
the incorrect use of spreadsheets or emission inventory software; the use of incorrect
data, methodology, and/or assumptions; mathematical miscalculations; or failure to
include all emission sources. A good QC program is the best mechanism for minimizing
technical errors; QA activities may catch technical errors as well, but less reliably.
EIIP Volume VI                                                                 1.3-1

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CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION                                                    1/6/97
Previously published EPA guidance documents have focused primarily on minimizing
procedural errors.  This volume includes some specific tools addressing technical errors
and expands procedural QA tools.

The EIIP quality program is also  concerned with providing tools to numerically evaluate
emission inventories.  One of these tools is the uncertainty analysis, which is an
evaluation of the precision and accuracy of an emissions estimate. The most useful
uncertainty analysis is quantitative and is based on statistical characteristics of the data
such as the variance and bias of an estimate.  However, uncertainty can be evaluated
qualitatively using expert judgement. Typically, a nonnumerical ranking is used
(e.g., "high" or "low" uncertainty).

Another quantitative tool is a sensitivity analysis.  The effect of a single variable on the
resulting emissions estimate generated  by a model (or calculation) is evaluated by
varying its value while holding all other variables  constant. Sensitivity analyses can help
focus QA/QC activities on the data that have the greatest impact on emissions
estimates.

The remainder of this source document is  organized as follows. Chapter 2, Planning
and Documentation, discusses the  vital  role of planning and good QA/QC
documentation.  The minimum requirements for specific documents and examples are
included.  A time line showing where specific documents fit in the overall process is
provided. Chapter 3, General QA/QC  Methods, is a compilation of tools, procedures,
and methods that can be used for QA/QC that are presented from simplest to most
comprehensive.  Chapter 4, Evaluating  the  Uncertainty of Emission Estimates, addresses
sources of uncertainty and presents methods for evaluating the quality of emission
estimates including  rating systems and  uncertainty analysis. Chapter 5, Model QA Plan,
demonstrates how some of the information presented in the previous sections can be
used in a QA plan.  Although this section  specifically targets state and local agencies
that prepare regional inventories,  the plan presented here  can easily be adapted to other
scales.
13-2                                                                    EIIP Volume VI

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 REFERENCES
 Boothe, L., and V. Chandler. 1994. Quality Assurance of North Carolina Precursors of
 Ozone Inventories, Emission Preprocessor System and the Urban Airshed Model Output.
 Presented at the 87th Air and Waste Management Association Annual Meeting and
 Exhibition, Cincinnati, Ohio, June 19-24.
£///» Volume VI                                                          1.4-1

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CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION                                                    1/6/97
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                                                                        EHP Volume VI

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\
         VOLUME VI: CHAPTER 2
        PLANNING AND DOCUMENTATION
        January 1997
                               Prepared by:
                               Eastern Research Group

                               Prepared for:
                               Quality Assurance Committee
                               Emission Inventory Improvement Program

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                                 DISCLAIMER

This document was furnished to the Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP)
and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by Eastern Research Group, Morrisville,
North Carolina. This report is intended to be a final document and has been reviewed
and approved for publication.  The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed
represent a consensus of the members of the Emission Inventory Improvement Program.
Mention of company or product names is not to be considered as an endorsement by the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

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CONTENTS
Section                                                                   Page

1     Overview of QA/QC Planning and Documentation  	 2.1-1

      1.1   Inventory Categories and Required QA Plan Elements  	 2.1-4

2     Organization and Staffing	 2.2-1

      2.1   Example of External Review of Selected Sources	 2.2-4

3     QA Plan 	 2.3-1

4     Statement of DQOs	 2.4-1

      4.1   A Hypothetical Example of DQOs for a SIP Reasonable Further
            Progress (RFP) Inventory 	 2.4-3
      4.2   An Alternative Approach to a DQO Statement  	 2.4-5
      4.3   An Example DQO Approach from the NAPAP Emission Inventory  . 2.4-7

5     Data Handling	 2.5-1

      5.1   Data Gathering	 2.5-1
      5.2   Electronic Databases	 2.5-4
      5.3   Tracking Data Entry	 2.5-4
      5.4   Standardized QA Procedures for Electronic Data Submittals  	 2.5-5

6     Documentation of Inventory Components	 2.6-1

      6.1   Documentation of Calculations  	 2.6-2
            6.1.1  Documentation of Hand Calculations  	 2.6-3
            6.1.2  Documentation of Spreadsheet Calculations  	 2.6-3
            6.1.3  Documentation of Emissions Databases or Models  	 2.6-4

      6.2   Documentation of QA/QC Procedures  	 2.6-8
            6.2.1  External QA Review Report of VDEQ Inventory  	 2.6-8
            6.2.2  QA Review of a State Ozone Precursor Inventory	 2.6-8
            6.2.3  QA Review of an Inventory for a Specific Industry  	  2.6-10

      6.3   Reporting the Inventory Estimates	  2.6-13

7     References  	 2.7-1


EIIP Volume VI                                                                   tii

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FIGURES	
                                                                       Page
2.2-1  Organization Chart for a SIP Inventory Staff  	 2.2-2
2.3-1  Components of a Comprehensive QA Plan	 2.3-2
2.4-1  Inventory Quality Table Used by IPCC/OECD  	 2.4-6
2.5-1  Example Contact Report	 2.5-3
2.5-2  Example Inventory Development Tracking Sheet	 2.5-6
2.5-3  Example Data Entry Log	 2.5-7
2.5-4  Example Standardized Data Handling Procedure	 2.5-8
2.6-1  Documentation of a Spreadsheet Used to Develop Area Source Emissions  . 2.6-5
2.6-2  Example Data Reporting Table for IPCC Inventories	  2.6-15
                                                                 EIIP Volume VI

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 TABLES	


                                                                           Page


 2.1-1  Inventory Planning, Preparation, and Documentation Steps and Associated
       QA/QC Activities  	  2.1-2

 2.1-2  Definition of Inventory Levels 	  2.1-6

 2.2-1  QA Coordinator Staffing:  Preferred and Alternative Methods	  2.2-3

 2.2-2  Methods Used to Achieve QA Objectives for VDEQ Inventory Review  . . .  2.2-6

 2.3-1  Minimum QA Plan and Technical Work Plan Requirements for Inventory
       Levels	  2.3-4

 2.3-2  QA Plan:  Preferred and Alternative Methods 	  2.3-5

 2.4-1  Preferred and Alternative Methods for DQOs and DQIs 	  2.4-3

 2.4-2  DQO Table for an RFP Inventory	  2.4-4

 2.6-1  VDEQ Corrective Action Form	  2.6-9

 2.6-2  Summary of the Survey Data Reviewed for Completeness and
       Reasonableness in the OCS Production-Related Inventory	 2.6-11
EIIP Volume VI

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vi                                                                          EIIP Volume VI

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 1
 OVERVIEW  OF  QA/QC  PLANNING

 AND  DOCUMENTATION	

 Inventory development activities are often limited with respect to time and resources. A
 key to the planning process is to identify and document these limitations, prioritize
 inventory-development efforts, and assure that limited resources are effectively budgeted
 based on priorities. It is vital, therefore, that planning and documentation activities be
 viewed as integral, not optional. These activities will assure development of the highest
 quality inventory possible within resource limitations. Planning and documentation are
 time-consuming in the short term.  However, in  the long term, good planning and
 documentation of inventory preparation and quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC)
 activities will strengthen the reliability and credibility of the inventory.

 Planning and documentation are complementary activities, as shown in Table 2.1-1.
 Documentation of all inventory and QA/QC activities is vital because it provides:

      •     A record of the planned activities  (including QA/QC procedures);

      •     A statement of the level of quality sought;

      •     A record of the actual activities;

      •     Sufficient information to perform the QA/QC activities; and

      •     A report on the inventory and an assessment of its quality.

 Thorough planning helps ensure that  the inventory data quality objectives (DQOs) are
 identified and ultimately met. Inventory planning activities specific to estimating
 emissions from point, area, mobile, and biogenic sources are discussed in the
 appropriate volumes of this document series. Volume I of this series provides guidance
 on planning and documentation for the inventory as a whole. The intent of this chapter
 is to reinforce the benefits of good inventory QA/QC planning and documentation,
 while acknowledging that the QA/QC processes selected must be flexible enough to
 accommodate the agency's needs and goals in developing an inventory within resource
 limitations. The agency's inventory needs and goals define the DQOs of the inventory.
EIIP Volume VI                                                            2.1-1

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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION
                                  1/6/97
                                  TABLE 2.1-1

      INVENTORY PLANNING, PREPARATION, AND DOCUMENTATION STEPS AND
                         ASSOCIATED QA/QC ACTIVITIES
          Inventory Activity
        QA/QC Activity
  1. Preliminary Planning Activities:
    •  Define purpose and scope of
       inventory
    •  Define organization and
       staffing roles
Define and document DQOs (see
Chapter 4 of this volume)
Identify QA coordinator; assign QA/QC
responsibilities to inventory staff
  2. Prepare Technical Work Plan:
    •  Identify geographical area
    •  Delineate pollutants to
       inventory
    •  Establish point/area source
       cutoffs
    •  Prioritize source categories
       for inclusion in inventory
    •  Prioritize data sources
    •  Delineate emissions
       estimation procedures
Prepare QA plan concurrently with or
after technical work plan
Document data-gathering methods in
QA plan
Choose QA/QC procedures to be used
Determine data quality indicators
(DQIs) that will be used to measure
quality
 3. Prepare Inventory:
    •  Data collection
    •  Data handling
    •  Estimate emissions
    •  Document inventory
       development activities
Follow data handling procedures as
documented in QA plan
Conduct routine QC activities
Conduct independent QA audits
Document QA/QC steps coinciding with
inventory development activities
 4. Inventory Reporting:
    •  Document methods, data
       sources, adjustments
    •  Discuss sources excluded and
       explain why
    •  Present estimated emissions
Prepare QA audit reports
Document QC findings and resolution of
problems
Discuss QA in final inventory report;
prepare separate QA report
2.1-2
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 QA/QC planning and documentation should not be viewed as optional tasks in
 preparing inventories; however, the level of effort may vary with the inventory DQOs.
 In some cases, it may not be necessary to document the planning stages of the inventory
 in detail.  The DQOs and the level of effort required to develop the inventory
 determine the planning and documentation steps that should be taken.  For example, an
 inventory that is compiled entirely from  published data and does not require additional
 data gathering could be completed with  minimal documentation of QA procedures.
 Such an inventory may be a simple way  for an agency to delineate areas for more in-
 depth research on emissions sources and quantities, for example.

 The inventory planning process can be described in detail in  a technical work plan in
 which the inventory preparers typically:

       •      Specify the geographical area covered and base year;

       •      Establish and document the inventory DQOs;

       •      Select pollutants  to be included;

       •      Delineate point/area source cutoffs;

       •      Prioritize emissions source categories and data  needs;

       •      Identify and prioritize data sources; and

       •      Describe the inventory methods  to be implemented.

 Other aspects of a technical work plan address the selection of data handling systems,
 growth factors that will be used if  emissions projections will be needed, and other
 considerations specific to the inventory's  intended use (e.g., modelling).

 A technical work plan can be a part of a QA plan, or a separate QA plan can be
 prepared in addition to the technical work plan.   A QA plan  contains details on the
 QA/QC procedures to be implemented throughout the inventory development process.
 A QA plan also includes a discussion of  how the  applicability of the data obtained will
 be assessed and the  procedures that will  be used to manipulate the data and ensure that
 QC checks and QA audits are performed throughout the inventory development process.
 The QA/QC procedures to be implemented vary depending on the ultimate use of the
 inventory results.

 For any type of inventory, documentation is needed to record the information used in
 data sheets, teleconferences, model inputs, and results.  All calculations and

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CHAPTER 2 • DOCUMENT A TION                                                 1/6/9 7
spreadsheets should be clearly documented so they can be reviewed, verified, and easily
updated in the future if appropriate.  Documentation should be sufficient to allow
reconstruction of emissions development activities. Any required reporting that
accompanies the inventory should include a compilation of emissions estimates and
some type of summary  documentation.  The inventory report should also document the
QA/QC procedures used, even if only to state that the spreadsheets were reviewed by
other team members for calculation errors only and to present a discussion of the
findings.

1.1   INVENTORY CATEGORIES AND REQUIRED  QA  PLAN  ELEMENTS

The intended uses of the inventory drive the documentation  needs for the inventory
development and QA/QC program. Ultimately, the quality and reliability of an
emissions inventory and its documentation are an appraisal of how well it has supported
the goals of the program. A detailed QA plan similar to the one presented in Chapter 5
of this volume is not essential for all types of inventories.

Based on their different uses, emissions inventories can be categorized into four general
groups. Each of these inventory categories may have slightly different inventory
planning, QA/QC, and documentation needs.  A report prepared for the United Nations
Task Force on Emissions Inventories (Mobley and Saeger, 1994) lists three primary uses
of emissions inventories:

       •     Assessments of air quality problems in an area to identify emissions
            sources;

       •     Input for  air quality models; and

       •     Input for  regulatory activities associated  with policy making.

The above list focuses on the state/local agency perspective.  However, other groups
develop and use inventories for other reasons. Industrial facilities prepare inventories
as part of a permit application or to show compliance  with an existing permit. They
may also submit annual inventories to be used as the basis for calculating fees.
Researchers may also develop inventories to identify sources of pollutants and to use  as
the basis for modeling or research into mitigation opportunities.

The documentation needs of a research study designed to assess air quality problems  are
not as stringent as those for the other inventory uses.  Top-down inventory development
methods are typically used to develop emissions estimates. For an emissions inventory
that will serve as input  to an air quality model, the methods  and activities required to


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 validate the data are more demanding and require suitable documentation.  The
 baseline inventory data must be source-specific, with detail on the spatial and temporal
 variability.  Emissions inventories used in regulatory activities that define policy options,
 assess fees, or to demonstrate compliance require the most significant level of
 documentation. These data could potentially be used in litigation and must therefore
 stand up to extreme scrutiny.

 To date, there have been few attempts to define inventory categories on the basis of
 quality standards. Table 2.1-2 provides a proposed formal classification of inventories.
 This classification was derived from the EPA's Air Pollution Prevention and Control
 Division (APPCD).  APPCD delineated four general project categories for field projects
 and specifies the accompanying QA plan requirements (EPA, 1994). The key point in
 delineating these categories is that  although good QA/QC procedures should be
 followed in developing any inventory, a detailed record of the planned and  implemented
 activities is not always required. Assigning an inventory to a category level designates
 what is needed in terms of project staffing, a technical work plan, a QA plan, data
 handling and tracking, and the level of written documentation needed.

 For example,  data handling, tracking, and documentation requirements are  least
 stringent for a Level IV inventory, which is usually compiled from previously published
 emissions data and thus involves no original data gathering.  An example of a Level IV
 inventory is the area source hazardous air pollutant (HAP) emissions inventory that was
 developed for the Chicago, Illinois  area by combining State Implementation Plan (SIP)
 activity and volatile  organic compound (VOC) emissions data with HAP emission
 factors and speciation profiles (EPA,  1995). The goal of this type of inventory was to
 quantify HAP emissions in order to evaluate emission reductions from proposed area
 source VOC regulations.  Because the goal was primarily to obtain information and did
 not  directly support  rulemaking or compliance, a Level IV inventory was acceptable.
 No site-specific data were gathered for this effort.  In preparing a Level IV inventory, a
 QA Coordinator should be named,  but need not be independent of  the inventory staff.
 A technical work plan should  be prepared, but it can be a separate  document from the
 QA plan, or a QA plan may not even be prepared.  All calculations should be
 documented for a Level IV inventory.

 A Level III inventory differs from a Level IV inventory because site-specific data of
 some type  are gathered, so more stringent QA and documentation activities  are needed.
 Because the resulting inventory will not be used  in direct support of decision making,
 some flexibility is still available.  However, because it may be used to support decision
 making or  to guide future research  efforts, a more  detailed QA plan is warranted.  An
 example of a Level III inventory is one that is prepared as part of an air pollution
 control device market potential and performance evaluation. A QA plan that describes
 the QA/QC procedures to be  implemented should be prepared, but it can be separate

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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION
                                                                  1/6/97
                                    TABLE 2.1-2
                          DEFINITION OF INVENTORY LEVELS
  Inventory
    Levels
    Inventory Use
        Requirements
     Example
      I
Inventories
supportive of
enforcement,
compliance, or
litigation activities.
Requires the highest degree
of defensibility.  Generally
involves source sampling or
mass balance based on site-
specific data; performance
audits of equipment,
traditional QA plan for
source sampling activities.
Monitoring for
compliance
      II
Inventories that
provide supportive
data for strategic
decision making or
standard setting.
Site-specific (or region-
specific) data are generally
required, but not necessarily
direct source sampling,
performance audits of
equipment.
State
Implementation
Plan (SIP)
inventory
     III
Inventories
developed for
general assessments
or research that will
not be used in direct
support of decision
making.
May or may not include
direct measurement of
sources, but often involves
site-specific data of some
type.  QA requirements must
be flexible.
Evaluation of
effectiveness of
alternative
controls or
mitigation
methods; bench-
scale or pilot
studies
     IV
Inventories compiled
entirely from
previously published
data or other
inventories; no
original data
gathering.
Flexible and variable.
Inventory
developed for
informational
purposes;
feasibility study;
trends tracking
2.1-6
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 from the technical work plan. It is preferred that a written DQO statement be
 prepared, and data handling and tracking and calculational procedures should be
 documented in some fashion.

 The minimum QA plan and technical work plan requirements for Level I and II
 inventories  are similar, but  less detail is required for a Level II inventory. A SIP
 inventory is a good example of a Level II inventory; the results of the inventory are used
 to support decision making, but do not require the same level of defensibility as is
 needed for  a Level I inventory.  The primary difference in the QA/QC requirements for
 Level I and II inventories is that alternative methods regarding staffing and written
 documentation of DQOs and data quality indicators (DQIs) are acceptable for a
 Level II inventory but not a Level I inventory.

 Level I usually applies to a  specific facility or source, and is generally the result of a
 regulation or litigation. The elements of the QA plan  are often specified in the
 regulation; for example, in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), 40 CFR 75 gives
 specific QA plan requirements for nitrogen oxides (NOX) and sulfur dioxide  continuous
 emission monitors installed  in utility boilers to  comply  with acid rain provisions of the
 1990 Clean Air Act  Amendments.  Precision and bias determinations  are usually
 required for source sampling data.  Other elements of  the QA plan include sample
 custody, instrument calibration, and instrument maintenance requirements. The QA
 plan requirements are discussed further in Section 3 of this chapter.
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 ORGANIZATION AND  STAFFING	

 An important aspect of QA planning and documentation is the assignment of staff and
 responsibility. If staff members are clear on their roles and responsibilities, there is less
 chance of duplication of effort or missed inventory QA/QC steps.  Clearly delineating
 staff roles also allows the inventory director to focus on matching staff capabilities with
 inventory development needs.  The QA staff should have a good understanding of
 emissions inventory development procedures.

 The QA plan identifies key inventory staff and responsibilities. The responsibilities of
 any outsiders involved in preparing or reviewing the inventory should also be clearly
 identified.  For example, if a state air quality agency is preparing the inventory,
 consultants, industry personnel, staff from other state  agencies, and EPA may be
 involved in the process.

 The overall responsibility for developing the inventory is usually assigned to the agency
 director. Direct supervision of the inventory preparation process, including making
 decisions as to the level of effort and funds required to develop the inventory,
 delineating the DQOs,  and evaluating the methods that will be used to create the
 inventory, is usually the responsibility of an inventory  director.

 For Level I and  II inventories, QA  responsibilities are usually  assigned to a QA
 Coordinator. As shown on the example organization chart in Figure 2.2-1, it is
 preferable to have an independent QA Coordinator who communicates with both the
 agency and the inventory directors.  Ideally, the QA Coordinator should not be a
 member of the inventory development staff (Table 2.2-1).  The QA Coordinator reviews
 the staff training procedures and conducts QA audits throughout the inventory
 development process to verify that QC steps are being followed.  As discussed in
 Chapter 1 of this volume, the  role of the QA Coordinator is to provide an objective
 assessment of the effectiveness of the internal QC program and the quality of the
 inventory, to identify any bias  in the inventory process, and to  ensure that corrective
 actions are taken to reduce or eliminate bias.

 Flexibility is needed in the QA/QC process so that the availability of staff and resources
 can be considered. For example, it may not be possible to have an independent QA
 Coordinator who is not involved in the development of the inventory.  This is
 particularly true for Level III and IV inventories. In these cases, an alternative
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to
^
to
FIGURE 2.2-1 . ORGANIZATION CHART FOR A SIP INVENTORY STAFF

Ron Mckernan
Director, state A r
Pollution Agency X
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555-1234


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Bill Kreutzman
555-1111

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Peggy Mam
555-1233

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 1/6/97
                                       CHAPTER 2 • DOCUMENTATION
                                    TABLE 2.2-1
       QA COORDINATOR STAFFING:  PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS
     Method
                             Staffing
  Preferred
QA Coordinator is independent of inventory staff; conducts periodic
QA audits, reviews entire inventory, and prepares QA report.
Critical for Level I inventories that may be used in litigation
activities.  Desirable for Level II inventories.
  Alternative 1
QA Coordinator is member of inventory staff; coordinates external
review of entire inventory. May prepare some parts of QA report. Is
acceptable for Level II, III, and IV inventories.
  Alternative 2
QA Coordinator is member of inventory staff; prioritizes selected
source categories for external review, coordinates review and
incorporation of comments, and prepares QA report. Is acceptable
for Level II, III, and IV inventories.
 organization can be used.  Referring again to Figure 2.2-1, the inventory director,
 stationary sources lead, mobile sources lead, biogenics lead, or data manager could
 serve as the QA Coordinator.  As such, the QA Coordinator would be responsible for
 identifying independent peer reviewers for each general inventory category and
 coordinating an in-depth review.  The QA Coordinator is also responsible for ensuring
 that all peer review comments  are addressed satisfactorily.

 Because of this reliance on peer review, it is important that QA staff members be
 chosen for their expertise in a particular area of inventory development.  Expert
 judgement may be needed to determine the quality of the approach if no prescribed
 method or the required data do not exist,  or certain situational factors make the
 preferred method inappropriate.

 If inventory development resources are even more constrained, a second alternative is
 for the QA Coordinator to prioritize the inventory categories  for external review.  If this
 method is chosen, it is very important that the QA reviewer make clear
 recommendations for corrective actions and that the agency follow up on those
 recommendations.  An external reviewer may not be able to make sure that problems
 are resolved.  Therefore, the inventory director (or a designee) should be made
 accountable for following through on the recommendations of the external reviewer.  A
 written report should  be prepared to document those  activities.
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CHA PTER 2 - DOCUMENT A TION                                                1/6/9 7
Regardless of the distribution of QA responsibilities, it is crucial to impress upon all
inventory development and QA staff members the importance of identifying errors
throughout the entire inventory development process.

2.1   EXAMPLE OF EXTERNAL REVIEW  OF SELECTED SOURCES

The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (VDEQ) hired an independent
consultant to conduct a QA/QC review of portions of its 1990 ozone nonattainment SIP
area source emissions  inventory. The following  objectives were specified for QA
activities:

       •     Ensure that EPA guidance was correctly interpreted and implemented;

       •     Where EPA guidance was not followed (or was not available), assess the
            reasonableness of the approach  used by VDEQ;

       •     Ensure the accuracy of input data by verifying data transcriptions from
            original sources (where appropriate), model inputs, and validity of any
            assumptions;

       •     Where appropriate, check the accuracy of spreadsheet calculations by
            replicating the calculations for at least one county's emissions; and

       •     If possible and where appropriate, perform some independent comparisons
            of emissions to other inventories.

The area source categories were selected for review based on the magnitude of the
estimated  emissions and/or the complexity in estimating emissions.  The following area
source categories were identified for external  review:

       •     Stationary source solvent use;

       •     Vehicle refueling and related activities;

       •     Fuel combustion;

       •     Incineration and open burning;

       •     Bioprocesses;
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        •     Waste handling facilities; and

        •     Leaking underground storage tanks.

 In addition, the point source and the mobile source inventories were reviewed. The
 consultant delineated specific quality objectives that would be covered by the review, as
 shown in Table 2.2-2. This makes clear the scope of the QA activities, making it easier
 for subsequent inventory users to identify additional QA procedures that they might
 want to perform.  (Note that this was not a complete QA audit; it is shown as an
 example of what can be done even when resources are limited.)

 All issues  encountered during the QA activities were communicated to VDEQ
 throughout the review. Upon completion of the external review, agency personnel had
 an idea of the overall quality of the emissions inventory, and could have chosen to have
 additional source  categories reviewed if there had been some question about the data
 quality. Resolution of the issues was the responsibility of the QA  Coordinator on the
 VDEQ staff.

 Other states have used a similar  approach, but called on staff from other state agencies
 to serve as peer reviewers.  Regardless of who actually does the review, the key element
 is that the review  be done independently of the actual inventory development.
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N)
K>
ON
        TABLE 2.2-2
                    METHODS USED TO ACHIEVE QA OBJECTIVES FOR VDEQ INVENTORY REVIEW"
QA Objective
1 Ensure correct
implementation of EPA
guidance.
2 Assess reasonableness of
VDEQ's approach where
EPA guidance not used or
unavailable.
3 Ensure accuracy input data
4 Check accuracy of
calculations by replicating a
sample.
S Perform independent
comparisons with other
inventories or data sources.
Point
Area
Nonroad
Onroad
Peer review of documentation.
• Peer review of
documentation.
• Not possible since original
data forms not provided.
• All calculations were done by
SAMS and are presumed to
be correct.
• Compared to TRI data;
• Cross-checked SAMS and
AIRS-AFS data.
• Peer review of
documentation;
• Compared with results
from other methods.
• Checked spreadsheet
entries against copies of
originals;
• Checked accuracy of
conversion factors;
• Assessed assumptions
made to calculate input
data (e.g., temperature).
• Recalculated emissions by
hand.

• Peer review of
documentation.
• Checked spreadsheet
entries against copies of
originals;
• Checked accuracy of
conversion factors;
• Assessed assumption
made to calculate input
data (e.g., engine
matching).
• Recalculated emissions in
a spreadsheet.

• Peer review of
documentation;
• Compared with results from
other methods.
• Used MIDAS software to
evaluate MOBILE model
input data.
• Reran MOBILE input model
for selected counties.
• Modeled VMT compared to
HPMS;
• Emissions compared to
those of four other states.
i
t>
                                                                                                                              Ni
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                                                                                                                              O
                                                                                                                              O

                                                                                                                              i
                                                                                                                              2
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                                                                                                                              i
     a Key to Acronyms:


     AFS:    AIRS Facility Subsystem
     AIRS:   Aerometric Information Retrieval System
     HPMS:   Highway Performance Monitoring System
MIDAS: MOBILE Input Data Analysis System
SAMS:  SIP Air Pollution Management Inventory Subsystem
TRI:    Toxic Release Inventory
                                                                                                                              to

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 QA   PLAN
 Prior to initiating work on any emissions inventory, it is imperative that inventory
 development procedures and QA/QC procedures be agreed upon and documented.
 Good documentation and involvement of QA personnel during the planning stages
 enhances the effectiveness of the QA/QC program and decreases the number of quality
 concerns found during the audits because expectations are clearly outlined in the QA
 plan and discussed with inventory development personnel prior to starting the work.

 Some type of QA plan should be prepared for all inventories, with the level of effort
 depending on the DQOs of the inventory.  The preferred method is to create an
 integrated technical work plan/QA plan.  Chapter 5 contains a model of this type  of QA
 plan for a Level II inventory, and Figure 2.3-1 outlines the key elements to  be included.
 Table 2.3-1 shows which QA plan elements should be documented-at a minimum~for
 each category of inventory.  The use of additional QA plan elements for Levels II, III,
 and IV inventories is strongly recommended.  Furthermore, not all inventories will fit
 neatly into one of these categories. Modifications to the QA plan elements should be
 made with the end-use of the inventory in mind.

 The purpose of the inventory and the inventory DQOs are defined in the introduction of
 a combined technical work plan/QA plan.  The DQOs should be agreed upon by the
 agency director and the inventory director (setting DQOs is discussed in Section 4 of
 this chapter).

 The program summary is an executive summary of the QA/QC procedures  that will  be
 used to ensure the quality of the inventory.  The summary highlights the interaction
 among functional groups, explains the flow of data through the agency, identifies the
 points in the inventory procedures where QC is applied, and specifies the frequency  of
 QA audits.  Inventory constraints to be  acknowledged include limitations on time,
 resources, data processing capabilities, and availability of personnel. The impacts of any
 constraints on DQOs should be projected if possible.

 The technical work plan discusses staff assignments and responsibilities, including those
 of inventory development personnel and the QA Coordinator.  It also establishes a
 commitment to the inventory development and QA/QC processes by delineating the
 resources  required to develop the  inventory and indicating how they have been (or will
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  POLICY STATEMENT

  INTRODUCTION
     •  Purpose of inventory
     •  DQOs

  PROGRAM SUMMARY
     •  Major program components and technical procedures
     •  Data flow through agency
     •  Points where QC procedures will be applied and frequency of QA audits
     •  Inventory constraints

  TECHNICAL WORK PLAN
     •  Organization
        -  Organization chart
        -  Discussion of roles
     •  Resources required/how obtained
     •  Resource allocation
     •  Personnel training
     •  Project documentation requirements
        -  Guidelines for those supplying data
        -  Guidelines for those using data (data handling)
     •  Schedule

  GENERAL QA/QC PROCEDURES
     •  Data quality ratings
     •  QA/QC techniques to be used
     •  QA/QC checkpoints
     •  Systems audits
     •  QA/QC review of entire inventory
        -  Ensure no double-counting of emissions
        -  Compare to other regional inventories for consistency
        -  Completeness determination
          FIGURE 2.3-1.  COMPONENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE QA PLAN

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   INVENTORY PREPARATION AND QA/QC ACTIVITIES
      •   Planning-technical approach
         -  Role of state or local agency personnel; minimum QA/QC activities
         -  Role of facility personnel; minimum QC requirements
         -  Acceptable methods to estimate emissions; preferred method
      •   Sensitivity analysis to identify key sources and critical data
      •   Data collection and handling procedures for agency personnel
      •   Review of estimates
         -  Data integrity QC checks
         -  Completeness QC checks; ensure all emissions units at a source are
            included and that all point source facilities in inventory area are included
         -  Consistency and reasonableness QC checks
      •   Data reporting

   CORRECTIVE ACTION MECHANISMS
      •   Identification of problems during QC process
      •   Identification during  QA process
      •   Documentation of corrective actions

   REFERENCES
                           FIGURE 2.3-1.  CONTINUED

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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION
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                                 TABLE 2.3-1

        MINIMUM QA PLAN AND TECHNICAL WORK PLAN REQUIREMENTS FOR
                               INVENTORY LEVELS
Element
Description of project's purpose,
scope, and end uses5
DQO statement
Staff organization and
responsibilitiesb
Specification of data gathering/
sampling procedures6
Specification of estimation methods'5
Description of internal QC checks
Specification of QC checkpoints
Description of QA procedures to be
implemented
Specification of QA checkpoints
Systems audits"
Calculation or discussion of DQIs
Corrective action plan
QA report
Ia
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
/
S
/
/
/
IP
/
/
/
^
/
/
/
/
/
S
/
/
S
III
/
/
/
/
/
/

/
/

/


IV
/

/
/
s








a Although all data elements are recommended for both Level I and II, the amount of
  detail may vary.
b If two documents are prepared, these elements may be addressed in a separate
  technical work plan.
c Specific types of audits will vary (see Chapter 3, Section 8 of this volume);
  performance audits mandatory for all instruments used to collect data.
2.3-4
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 1/6/97
CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION
 be) obtained and allocated among the functional groups.  The technical work plan also
 establishes the agency's commitment to personnel training, project documentation, and
 schedule requirements.

 The QA plan presents the general QA/QC procedures that will be implemented
 including a discussion of how the data will be quality rated, the  QA/QC techniques to
 be used, and the QA/QC checkpoints. The QA plan also establishes when the QA
 Coordinator will complete the systems audits.  Systems audits that evaluate the
 documentation and procedures associated with the inventory development activities are
 discussed.  The QA plan describes the steps that will be taken as a QA/QC review of
 the entire  inventory is conducted to ensure that no double-counting of emissions occurs.
 The QA plan explains that the inventory will be compared to other regional inventories
 for consistency and to verify that all sources of emissions  are included.  Along with the
 QA/QC activities, the inventory preparation steps including planning, data collection,
 review of estimates and reporting, are described in the QA plan. The QA plan also
 notes what corrective action mechanisms will be implemented throughout the inventory
 development process.

 In addition to this volume, the EPA has published other information that may be helpful
 in preparing a QA plan (EPA,  1988, 1989).

 One alternative to a combined  technical work plan/QA plan is that the QA plan and
 technical work plan be separate documents.  However, the use of a combined document
 is likely to result in a more cohesive and integrated inventory development and quality
 program. Table 2.3-2 summarizes the preferred and alternative  methods.

                                   TABLE 2.3-2

                QA  PLAN: PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS
Method
Preferred
Alternative
Description
Prepare an integrated technical work plan/QA plan prior to
initiating inventory development.
Prepare separate technical work and QA plans prior to initiating
inventory development.
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 STATEMENT  OF  DQOs
 The first step in planning any inventory is to define the purpose and intended use of the
 inventory.  This information will, in turn, be used to determine the DQOs for the
 inventory as well as the QA/QC requirements.

 DQOs are  statements about the level of uncertainty a decision-maker is willing to
 accept.   Their purpose is to ensure that the final data will be sufficient for its intended
 use. DQO statements must identify the end use or intended purpose of the data and
 the level of uncertainty anticipated in the emissions estimates.

 It is very important to recognize that DQOs are method-specific; they are based on what
 is possible for a given methodology and the quality of the data available.  The inventory
 preparers should look at the historical data.  What problems have they had in the past
 that limited inventory quality? Can these problems be overcome for this effort?  If this
 inventory is for a source or region that has never been inventoried, information and
 experiences from similar efforts should be studied.

 DQOs must be realistic and achievable. However, recognition that the inventory quality
 is less than desirable should be documented in the DQO statement and discussed
 further in the QA plan (as a constraint). The impacts of weaknesses in methods, data,
 or other inventory elements should be included in any discussion of uncertainty (see
 Section 6 of this chapter and Chapter 4 of this volume).

 DQOs should be planned in advance and written down. The DQIs that will be used to
 measure these objectives should also be specified. Specific methods for defining DQOs
 are discussed in Chapter 4. A complete DQO statement should address:

      •      Accuracy (or uncertainty) of emission estimates;

      •      Completeness;

      •      Representativeness; and

      •     Comparability.
EIIP Volume VI                                                               2.4-1

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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENT A TION                                                   1/6/97
The issue of accuracy has plagued inventory users since the concept of emissions
inventories was introduced.  Where emissions are measured directly, statistical measures
of bias and precision can be used to qualify data accuracy.   However, this is rare in a
regional inventory.  Emissions are usually estimated using factors and surrogate activity
data. In some cases, quantitative measures of uncertainty can be made. Also, relative
quality ranking systems (such as the Data Attribute Rating  System or DARS discussed
in Chapter 4) may be used as a quantitative method.  At the very least, a qualitative
assessment can be employed. For example, a discussion of data strengths and
weaknesses, uncertainties, and other qualifiers will set a level of confidence for the
inventory user.

The relevance of the other terms is easily shown.  Comparability can be defined by the
intended use of the inventory.  For example, emissions trading programs generally
require that the emissions of the sources involved be estimated or measured using
similar (or identical) methods.  In this situation, comparability of the estimates may be
the most important DQO.

Representativeness means that the inventory is representative of the region and sources it
is meant to cover; for example, if a  regional ozone precursor inventory is being
prepared,  the categories of sources included should represent all of the major sources of
VOCs, carbon monoxide (CO), and NOX in the  region. Likewise, the methods and
emission factors should be representative of local conditions. The DQOs would assess
how representative a national average emission factor is for certain area source
categories, and may lead to the decision to use  a survey of local sources instead.

Inventory preparers have always been concerned about completeness. The DQOs for an
inventory must first establish  the reference for assessing completeness.  It could be a list
of businesses in the area, the list of sources from a previous inventory, or some other
standard.  The DQOs may state that 90 percent completeness is acceptable.  Different
sections and subsections could have different targets for completeness; 100 percent of
the 100-ton sources but only 80 percent of the remaining sources might be required.

Despite the best intentions of inventory preparers, the development effort is often
constrained by schedules, resource limitations, and lack of data.  The DQOs for the
inventory should be realistic and need to account  for any factors that will limit inventory
quality.  Table 2.4-1 lists the preferred and some alternative methods for DQO
statements.  Other alternative methods are feasible, and can be made very specific to
the needs of the inventory. The important thing is that some thought be given in
advance to the desired quality of the product.
2.4-2                                                                    BIP Volume VI

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1/6/97
                                   CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION
                                  TABLE 2.4-1
           PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS FOR DQOs AND DQIs
      Method
                        Description
  Preferred
Written DQO statement addresses accuracy or uncertainty,
completeness, representativeness, and comparability.  Quantitative
methods are used to document inventory quality DQIs; DQIs are
specified in the DQO statement and linked directly to DQOs.
Critical for Level I inventories; desirable for Levels II and III.
  Alternative 1
Written DQO statement addresses specific criteria, but may
include less detailed discussions of accuracy or uncertainty,
completeness, representativeness, and comparability, or may
exclude discussion of one or more of these elements.  Qualitative
methods are used for DQIs, and each DQO identified is
addressed specifically.  The DQO statement provides some
guidance on the elements to be considered for each DQI.
Acceptable for Levels II and III; desirable for Level IV.
 Having determined the DQOs, the next, and often more difficult, step is to identify the
 DQIs that will be used to measure the progress towards each DQO.  Quantitative
 measures (such as confidence limits, numerical ranking systems, or letter grades) are
 preferable. However, implementing these is also more difficult. An alternative is to use
 qualitative DQIs, which may simply be a critical discussion of the inventory's strengths
 and limitations.  Specific methods and examples of DQIs are provided in Chapter 4 of
 this volume. Table 2.4-1 also summarizes the preferred and alternative methods for
 DQIs.

 4.1   A HYPOTHETICAL  EXAMPLE  OF  DQOs  FOR A SIP REASONABLE
       FURTHER PROGRESS (RFP)  INVENTORY

 The four general DQO categories described above have been informally used by
 inventory analysts to review inventory quality.  Therefore, this explicit use in a more
 formal DQO statement is fairly easy to envision.  Table 2.4-2 presents a hypothetical
 summary of DQOs and the minimum DQI values that might be set for an update (or
 RFP inventory) to a SIP inventory.
EIIP Volume VI
                                                        2.4-3

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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION
      1/6/97
                                   TABLE 2.4-2
                       DQO TABLE FOR AN RFP INVENTORY
DQO
Accuracy/Uncertainty
Completeness
Representativeness
Comparability
Inventory DQI Target Values
• Achieve DARS score of > 0.7 for all area sources
contributing > 10% of total emissions of VOC or NOX.
• Achieve DARS score > 0.8 for all point sources
> 100 tons per year (tpy).
• Quantify variability of all emissions based on source
test data or surveys.
• Use expert judgement method to estimate uncertainty
for all sources >5% of emissions of any pollutant.
• 100% of all point sources > 100 tpy.
• 90% of all other point sources.
• Top 15 area sources listed in 1990 base year SIP
inventory.
• Counties A, B, C, and D.
• 1993 daily ozone season.
• Results to be compared to 1990 base year inventory.
Presumably, the inventory preparers have considered the sources to be inventoried and
the methods/data available.  They have chosen to use DARS to set quantitative targets
for inventory quality, but also want a quantitative assessment of the variability or
uncertainty.

The inventory preparers have also made the determination that as long as they have
included all of the > 100 tpy point sources, they only need to include 90 percent of the
remaining point sources.  They are also dropping smaller area sources. Not much is
made of representativeness in this case.  Only the region and relevant year are specified.
However,  other attributes could be added such as seasonal considerations, conditions
that might require adjustments to some emission factors, or other specifications.
2.4-4
EIIP Volume VI

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 1/6/97                                                 CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTA TION
 Finally, if this inventory must be comparable to the 1990 base year inventory because it
 will be used to show reductions (or increases) in emissions, the use of comparable
 methods may be very important.  Otherwise, detailed documentation will be needed to
 demonstrate that differences in emissions are not simply results of the different
 methodologies, but result from real changes in activity.  Additional guidance may be
 needed on how to ensure comparability while achieving the other DQOs.  For example,
 if meeting the accuracy DQO requires use of a new (and improved) method, the 1990
 estimate may have to be recalculated or adjusted to ensure comparability.

 A table such as the one shown in Table 2.4-2 may sufficiently describe the DQOs.
 However, usually some additional details are needed. These may be provided as text in
 the DQO statement or may be included elsewhere in the QA plan (see Section 3 of this
 chapter).

 4.2  AN ALTERNATIVE  APPROACH TO A DQO STATEMENT

 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in  collaboration with the
 OECD and the International Energy Agency (IEA), has led the development of a series
 of inventory guidance documents for the preparation of greenhouse gas inventories
 (IPCC/OECD, 1994a, 1994b, 1994c). The guidelines  are to be used by individual
 countries to prepare national inventories. The guidelines must balance the need for
 well-documented inventories of known quality with the widely varying resources and
 technology available to participating countries.

 The IPCC has essentially one clearly stated DQO, which is to "use comparable
 methodologies  for inventories" because each country is free to use a range of methods at
 different levels of detail.  The  IPCC's approach to ensuring comparability is to establish
 minimum requirements for reporting data that  allow for comparison and identification
 of differences in the methods used.  These reporting requirements include "Minimum
 Data Tables" for various  categories, standardized summary and overview tables, and
 specific reporting elements.

 The IPCC  has incorporated other DQOs somewhat informally into its guidelines.  In a
 chapter entitled "Reporting the National Inventory," specific QA/QC procedures are
 listed (the  term "verification" is used rather than QA/QC). The last task listed
 (IPCC/OECD, 1994a, p.  3.5) is to "prepare a brief self-assessment of the quality of the
 resulting inventory" Furthermore, specific tables are provided for reporting the
 inventory quality, as shown in Figure 2.4-1. This table indirectly identifies the data
 attributes of interest without setting specific objectives or targets for quality.
 Quantification of uncertainties is strongly encouraged  as well, and specific methods are
 described in the IPCC guidance (see also Chapter 4 of this volume).


EIIP Volume VI                                                                  2.4-5

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FIGURE 2.4-1. INVENTORY QUALITY TABLE USED BY IPCC/OECD
(TABLE HAS BEEN ADAPTED FROM IPCC/OECD AND EDITED TO FIT PAGE)
Table 7A Overview Table for



National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
OVERVIEW TABLE
GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCE AND SINK
CATEGORIES

Total
National Emissions and Sink


1 All Energy (Fuel Combustion +
Fugitive)
A Fuel Combustion
B Fugitive Fuel Emission
2 Industrial Processes
3 Solvent and Other Product Use
4 Agriculture
A Enteric Fermentation
B Animal Wastes
C Rice Cultivation
D Agricultural Soils
E Agricultural Waste Burning
F Savannah Burning
5 Land Use Change & Forestry
6 Waste
C02
Estimate















Quality















CH4
Eatimate















Quality















N2O
Estimate















Quality















Documen-
tation
















Disaggregation
















Footnotes


















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Full estimate of all possible source*
Not animated
Estimated but included elsewhere
Not occurring
Not applicable


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cods
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meaning
High confidence in estimation
Medium confidence in estimation
Low confidence in estimation




KEY
Documentation
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High (all background information included!
Medium (some background information included)
Low (only emission estimates included)



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Sectoral split
Sub-sectoral split





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 1/6/97                                                CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTA TION
 Rather than stating detailed DQOs and specifying targets for the DQIs, the IPCC
 approach is to make it as easy as possible for inventory users to assess the comparability
 of the methods.  This  approach is not the best way to ensure quality, but in some
 circumstances it  is probably a more realistic approach.

 4.3  AN EXAMPLE  DQO  APPROACH FROM THE NAPAP EMISSION
       INVENTORY

 Another example of documented inventory  DQOs is from the EPA's 1985 National Acid
 Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) emission inventory QA/QC plan (EPA,
 1986). The objective of the NAPAP inventory was to compile a comprehensive and
 accurate inventory of emissions and facilities data from natural and anthropogenic
 sources for the 1985 base year. The EPA developed the DQOs based on the use of the
 inventory data.  For example, one key use of the data was to support atmospheric
 modeling activities. This required accurate location of emissions sources both
 geographically and spatially.  The EPA also acknowledged the constraints to the
 inventory because of a tight schedule, budget constraints, and limited availability of
 emission factors  for some source  categories (which will affect accuracy).  To overcome
 the problem of scheduling the resources needed to assist with the resolution of questions
 raised in QA/QC checks, the EPA developed a computerized routine to check for as
 many of the NAPAP DQOs as possible.  The EPA also prioritized sources to be
 included in the inventory based on pollutants and pollutant quantities emitted, stack
 heights, and type of industry (combustion sources, petroleum refineries, etc.).

 The definition and specification of DQOs in the NAPAP QA/QC plan does not entirely
 coincide with the approach presented here.  However, the basic concept of data
 accuracy is addressed.  The DQOs focused  more on identifying critical data elements
 (such as  ensuring accuracy of geographical location), most of which related to
 representativeness  of the inventory.
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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTA TION                                                     1/6/97
                          This page is intentionally left blank.
2.4-8                                                                       EIIP Volume VI

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 DATA  HANDLING
 Data handling is an important but often overlooked element of good QA.  Information
 (or data) can come from many different sources, requiring varying degrees of checking,
 processing, and storage. The key elements of data handling procedures that need to be
 addressed in the QA program are:

       •     Tracking data received from different sources  in various formats;

       •     Documenting and managing corrected data; and

       •     Checking data after conversion to inventory format.

 These procedures can be done manually or by use of computerized databases.  The
 methods selected will depend on several factors including the size of the inventory, the
 inventory level, the number of calculations to be made, and  time and budget constraints.
 In developing most inventories, both hard-copy and electronic data must be dealt with.

 5.1   DATA GATHERING

 The data handling  section  of a QA plan discusses how data will be gathered and how
 subsequent emissions calculations will be affected.  The backbone of any data handling
 system is the project filing  system.  The organization of the filing system, specifically the
 names of files and  examples of the contents of each, should  be specified in the QA plan.
 The filing system should be set up so that a newcomer could find all relevant data in a
 logical order if needed.  Could an independent QA auditor,  for example, trace the
 sources of data reported in the inventory through the filing system back to the original
 source?

 Regardless of the inventory category level, pertinent information for data obtained from
 all sources should be kept  in a project file. If data are obtained from facility surveys or
 site visits, the original survey forms and site visit notes and reports should be kept in the
 project file.  Complete copies of all pertinent source test reports should also be kept in
 the project file. For data obtained from other media, such as electronic bulletin boards
 or databases, hard-copy printouts of pertinent data should be kept in the project file (if
 they are not too cumbersome),  along with an electronic copy of the original data. For
 very large databases,  a hard-copy summary or description of the database (including
 date and contents)  should be kept with the electronic copy.


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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION _ 1/6/97


Data or information used to develop assumptions or estimation methods can come from
several different sources including:

       •      Published books, documents, reports, or articles;

       •      Unpublished documents or reports;

       •      Personal communication via letter, facsimile, or computer e-mail; and

       •      Personal communication (spoken).

If the data source is published (and presumably available to anyone), a complete
citation of the source should be kept in the project file.  If feasible, the pages containing
specific data should be copied and kept in the file.

Unpublished data sources require that more information be maintained in the file. It is
preferable that the entire document, letter,  or facsimile be kept in the file.  If this is not
possible for  larger documents, the relevant pages and cover/title pages should be copied
and filed. Computer e-mail (or other electronically transmitted information) should be
printed and  filed.

Any information obtained by telephone,  at a meeting, or by other unwritten means
should be recorded  in a contact report.  Standardized forms will help remind staff to
record all pertinent information. An example is shown in Figure 2.5-1.

As data are  obtained from external sources, it is important to document standardized
log-in procedures and verify periodically that the procedures are being followed.
Similarly, anyone taking something out of the file for temporary use should sign it out.
An early QA audit is a good way to evaluate data handling procedures.

Even when much of the inventory development  is done by an electronic database
system, some handwritten documentation is usually needed. Each staff member should
be assigned  a project-specific notebook for recording all calculations and assumptions.
If spreadsheets are used for any part of the inventory development, the project file
should contain up-to-date electronic versions. The project file should also include
copies of completed data entry forms used if the data are combined into a master
database. The project file should also contain a discussion of statistical data handling
procedures (if relevant), with written documentation of the assumptions made and how
outliers in the  data were treated.

QC review by inventory team members throughout the emissions estimation process  is
crucial. It is at this stage in the process that all assumptions, data entry,  and
2.5-2                                                                   fHP Volume VI

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 1/6/97
                   CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION
  Date  6/5/95
                             CONTACT REPORT
Originator  Joan Brown
  CONTACT BY:  TELEPHONE  X   MEETING
                OTHER
    NAME, TITLE, & ORGANIZATION

    J.P. Morgan, Ozoneville DEO
   ADDRESS & TELEPHONE NUMBER

   541-5555
    PURPOSE OR SUBJECT (Give project number if appropriate)

    XYZ Industries Title V Permit Application
  SUMMARY:

  J.P. Morgan (permit engineer) was called to determine if the state had any
  guidance on how to group emissions from a set of related emission units (see
  contact report for J. O'Conner).

  J.P. indicated that the state will allow grouping of emission units as long as
  each piece of equipment is listed (such as paint booth, drying oven, touch-up).
  Emissions from each piece of equipment do not need to be specified
  individually as long  as mass balance is used to estimate emissions from the
  group (paint used -  waste = emissions) and all emissions go to one stack.  (He
  also said if hardware controls were added later, we may have to be more
  specific about emissions).
   ACTION:    Distribute this information to the XYZ team.
                  FIGURE 2.5-1.  EXAMPLE CONTACT REPORT
EIIP Volume VI
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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENT A TION                                                 1/6/9 7
calculations are reviewed for technical merit, and transcription and/or data entry errors
are also detected.  The key here is to encourage all inventory and QA staff members to
identify errors throughout the entire inventory development process.  Specific QA and
QC methods are described in Chapter 3 of this volume and some examples of
documentation for specific methods are given.  These completed checklists, log sheets,
tables, or reports should be kept in the project file.

5.2   ELECTRONIC DATABASES

Data gathered and entered into an electronic database to develop and store emissions
estimates should first be validated. A QA/QC program that deals with electronic
databases should:
             Check the accuracy of the data input;
      •      Ensure that emissions are calculated accurately and in a manner consistent
             with selected methods;

      •      Ensure that all emissions units are reported and emissions are calculated
             correctly; and

      •      Ensure the overall integrity of the database file.

These objectives are met by technically reviewing the input data (QC review), reviewing
the emissions estimation methodology, comparing the results of some emissions
estimates with estimates calculated by hand, and developing a checklist of emissions
sources based on site visits and data gathering efforts and comparing the list to the
emissions sources in the database file. Specific methods for accomplishing these tasks
are discussed in Chapter 3.  Logs should be maintained to track data for each emissions
unit as it is entered into the database and its accuracy is checked. Two examples of
systems for tracking data entry and flow are provided below. These examples apply
most directly to Level I and II inventories. For Level III and IV inventories, less
stringent approaches can be used, provided data entry and manipulation are of high
quality.

5.3  TRACKING  DATA  ENTRY

A fairly typical approach for inventory development requires some data manipulation
prior to entry into an emissions calculation program or a computer-based data
repository.  Sometimes the data will change hands several times during this process. It
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 1/6/9 7                                                 CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENT A TION
 is therefore very important that the person responsible for each step and the date of the
 activity be recorded.

 In the first example system for tracking data entry presented, data to be used in
 estimating emissions for a military base were gathered on site.  Emissions for some
 sources are to be estimated using the Air Quality Utility Information System (AQUIS)
 designed by Argonne National Laboratory for the U.S. Air Force; for others, emissions
 must be calculated in spreadsheets or by hand, and then entered in AQUIS.  Data entry
 is handled by two  people, one of whom is the database administrator.  The data were
 reviewed for accuracy (using sample calculations, peer review, and reality checks as
 described in Chapter 3 of this volume)  prior to entry into AQUIS.  After AQUIS data
 entry, the data were reviewed  again to  correct any transcription errors. Each step was
 recorded on a logsheet that was  updated electronically and distributed to staff
 periodically. An example of this tracking sheet is shown in Figure 2.5-2.

 In addition, data entry into AQUIS was tracked in more detail.  This was necessary
 because more than one person could enter data;  also, the inventory was changing often
 with updates or corrections. Figure 2.5-3 gives an example of a data entry log.

 This level of manual tracking is very tedious, but is necessary—especially when several
 people are working on the same database. More sophisticated  emissions software may
 have  tracking procedures built in that show when an element was last changed and by
 whom.  Depending on the level of detail provided by these computerized "audit trails,"
 some of the manual tracking may not be needed.

 5.4  STANDARDIZED QA  PROCEDURES FOR ELECTRONIC DATA
       SUBMITTALS

 State agencies must assemble data from many sources, often passing them through
 different groups within the agency.  A second example of a standardized data handling
 procedure  is provided by the California Air Resources Board (ARE), and is  depicted in
 Figure 2.5-4. ARE has standardized procedures to handle emissions inventory data as
 they are received by the air quality management districts and ARE. The data are
 reviewed in a hierarchical fashion, beginning with Level 0 data that are provided directly
 by the source facilities; the district has little direct knowledge of the data quality.

 After district personnel have reviewed the facility data by checking for completeness and
 accuracy and screening for computational errors, the data are referred to as  Level la
 data.  When the Level la data are converted by the district to standard ARE format
 they termed Level  Ib data. This process allows for another completeness check. After
 ARE  inputs the Level Ib data into the  electronic database system (EDS), they become

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to
FIGURE 2.5-2. EXAMPLE INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT TRACKING SHEET


OZONEVILLE ARSENAL INVENTORY REPORTS
Source Category Progress
Log
Last update:

Source Category
Description
Emergency generators
Boilers
Degreasers
Paint booths
Welding
Cutback asphalt
Abrasive cleaners
Spills
Miscellaneous paint use
Wood cyclones
Fire fighter training

06/06/96

Source
Manager
B. Fife
B. Fife
N. Bates
N. Bates
N. Bates
B. Fife
B. Fife
B. Fife
B. Fife
F. Kruger
F. Kruger




County name:
Inventory
manager:

Enter date :
Through
Review
X
X

X
X
X
X

X

X
EDI
Entry Started
7/20/94
7/20/94

7/20/94
7/08/94
7/20/94
7/05/94

8/06/94

7/28/94
EDI
Entry
Complete
7/28/94
7/28/94

7/28/94
7/09/94
7/21/94
7/07/94



7/31/94
Ozoneville
A. Griffith


QA/QC
Complete
8/04/94
8/04/94

8/01/94


8/01/94



8/01/94




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	 . _. (Level 5)

i
Data Data
Obtained -» Reviewed
From (Level 1a>


(Level D)


0 18
Months Months



i
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                                                                                                                                                            CD
                                                                                                                                                            O


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 1/6/97                                                  CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTA TION
 Level 2 data. Then data are subjected to a variety of computerized QA checks by an
 independent staff.

 Level 2 data are transmitted back to the districts along with a summary of potential
 errors.  There are numerous transmittals to and from ARE (Levels 3-6) as the districts
 make the necessary corrections and return the data to ARE with recommended changes
 to the data in EDS.  Final inventory data are referred to as Level 7 data.
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 DOCUMENTATION  OF  INVENTORY

 COMPONENTS	

 Previous sections of this chapter have stressed the importance of planning and described
 the appropriate documentation for each specific procedure.  However, written
 documentation of calculations, assumptions, and all other activities associated with
 developing the emissions estimates is also a key element of the QA program. Preferred
 and alternative methods for documenting the planning procedures (technical work plan/
 QA plan) and DQOs (DQO statement) are described in Sections 2, 3, and 4 of this
 chapter.

 This section covers documentation of the work that is actually performed during
 inventory development.  The following topics are addressed:

      •     Documentation of calculations (hand calculations, spreadsheets,
            databases);

      •     Documentation of the QA program implementation; and

      •     Documentation of the results (the inventory report).

 As with other elements of inventory preparation, the level of documentation detail
 required for a specific inventory will vary.  The definitions of the Levels I through IV
 inventory categories given in Section 3  may be used as a guide to the amount of
 documentation required.

 Documenting inventory preparation activities allows the QA Coordinator and others to
 ensure that the inventory report accurately reflects the data. Examples of topics
 requiring good documentation in the inventory development process include:

      •     Point/area source cutoffs to demonstrate that double-counting of
            emissions does not occur;

      •     Point source information  on survey mailout procedures, tracking and
            logging of returned surveys, and verification procedures for source test
            data;
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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENT A JION                                                 1/6/9 7
      •      Adjustments made to source test data to represent longer periods of time,
             seasonal influences, etc;

      •      Data obtained from permit and compliance files;

      •      Adjustments made for applicable rules: control  efficiency (CE), rule
             penetration, and rule effectiveness;

      •      For area sources in particular, information obtained on emission factors
             and activity data;

      •      Data references;

      •      Adjustments made for local conditions, and assumptions made to adjust
             for scaling up emissions to account for "nonreported" sources; and

      •      Mobile source documentation: vehicle miles traveled (VMT), traffic
             speeds, miles of roadway for each roadway class, hot- and cold-start
             percentages, vehicle age distribution,  etc.

6.1  DOCUMENTATION OF CALCULATIONS

Emissions calculations are generally accomplished using one or a combination of the
following methods:

      •      Handwritten calculations;

      •      Spreadsheets; and

      •      Emissions models or databases.

The electronic methods can be very simple or quite complex.  However, even when a
sophisticated  emissions database or estimation program is used, some calculations on
the input data may still be needed.  At the very least, any assumptions or caveats about
the data should be documented.  Documentation of calculations should be performed
for all inventories, Levels I through IV.
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 6.1.1  DOCUMENTATION OF HAND CALCULATIONS

 All calculation sheets should provide the following information:

       •     The preparer's name;

       •     Date created (and modified, if applicable);

       •     Signature of reviewer;

       •     Date reviewed;

       •     Citations for all data used;

       •     List of assumptions; and

       •     Page number (showing total pages as well).

 Calculations should be done in ink (not pencil); any errors should be corrected by
 drawing one line through the number and writing the correct value above (or nearby).
 Standardized calculation sheets can be used to prompt staff to remember to provide all
 of the above information.  In addition, written procedures for documentation
 requirements should be provided,  preferably as part of the technical work plan.
 However, if the agency already has standard guidance or standard operating procedures
 (SOPs) for documentation,  these can be referenced in the technical work plan.

 6.1.2  DOCUMENTATION OF  SPREADSHEET CALCULATIONS

 Documentation is also important on spreadsheets used to calculate emissions, whether
 they are part of a formal inventory report or an informal report.  The spreadsheet
 contains all pertinent information  used to estimate emissions.  The information that
 should be included on the spreadsheet is similar to that required  for handwritten
 calculations. Because spreadsheet calculations are hidden on the hard  copy, additional
 documentation is needed.  The minimum information required  is:

       •    The preparer's name (author);

       •    Date created (and modified, if applicable);

       •    Spreadsheet version  number;



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CHAPTER 2 • DOCUMENTATION	1/6/97


       •      Name of spreadsheet reviewer (QC check);

       •      Date reviewed;

       •      Citations of all references from which data were obtained (the project file
             will contain copies of all reference materials);

       •      All constants, factors, or other data (i.e., no hidden data);

       •      All calculation documentation (as footnotes or in some other manner);
             and

       •      Page number.

A number of alternative spreadsheet designs will fulfill the above requirements. The
simplest approach is to show all values used in a calculation as columns (or rows).
However, if there are  a large number of repetitive values, more concise layouts are
better. Figure 2.6-1 gives an example  of selected pages from a spreadsheet used to
develop area source emissions from gasoline distribution (the entire spreadsheet is not
shown).  The information at the top serves to document assumptions and values used in
the equations; they are also referenced by the appropriate equation in the main table of
the spreadsheet. The  footnotes at the bottom of the last page also document
assumptions and equations used.

6.1.3 DOCUMENTATION OF EMISSIONS DATABASES OR MODELS

Increasingly, emissions inventories are being developed and/or compiled using
computerized emissions databases or models.  Presumably, the methods, assumptions,
and any data included with the software are documented in a user's manual or a
technical manual. If not, the user should conduct extensive and careful QA of the
model (see Chapter 3, Section 4, "Calculation Checks") or find a better documented
system.

Even if the system is well documented, the user will need to provide information about
the input data.  Comment fields, if available and sufficiently large, can be used to record
assumptions, data references, and any other pertinent information.  Alternatively, this
information can be recorded in a separate document, electronically or otherwise.  If at
all possible, the electronic database should record a cross-reference to that document.
This cross-reference could be a file name (and directory or disk number), a notebook
identification number or code, or other document.
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1/6/97
CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION
                                            S 3 .8 1 a
                                             fill
   FIGURE 2.6-1. DOCUMENTATION OF A SPREADSHEET USED TO DEVELOP AREA
                            SOURCE EMISSIONS
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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTA 7/O/V
                                                                   1/6/97
    •  •§*?
    -ejr
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    •= fr  »
    If1!
    I il«
    O> (S QC —
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2.6-6
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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION
                            n
                            •a -8
                            a H

                           FIGURE 2.6-1.  CONTINUED
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6.2  DOCUMENTATION OF QA/QC PROCEDURES

QA/QC activities and results should also be documented, either as a part of the
inventory report or as a stand-alone QA report. The procedures used to meet the
QA/QC objectives, the technical approach used to implement the QA plan, and the
results of the QA audits should be documented.

The QA report should summarize the results of all QA activities including key problems
found, corrective actions, and any further recommendations. The QA report should also
discuss the inventory  quality, preferably including quantitative DQIs.  If no quantitative
measures of quality were planned, then a qualitative assessment of the inventory's
strengths, weaknesses, and uncertainties should be provided. More than one report or
document may be generated as the result of QA/QC activities. In particular, a report
should be prepared for each QA audit. Also, any peer review reports, checklists, forms,
or QA/QC tables (or electronic database reports) constitute part of the written records
of QA/QC program implementation.

For Level III and IV  inventories that may not include a QA report, QA/QC activities
should be documented informally (i.e., handwritten notes, comments) and kept as part
of the project file. It is important that some written documentation be kept in the event
that data quality is questioned.

6.2.1   EXTERNAL QA REVIEW REPORT OF VDEQ INVENTORY

As described in previous sections, an outside consultant was used by VDEQ to review
specific elements of the 1990 base year SIP inventory for Virginia.

The VDEQ  corrective action form shown in Table 2.6-1 facilitates documentation of QA
comments and resolution of issues.  This summary of major technical issues found
during QA review would also include the name of the VDEQ staff member responsible
for resolving each issue, his/her action plan, and proposed date of resolution should be
recorded on the form. When the corrective action plan has been completed, the
appropriate  sections of the inventory should be reviewed again to verify that the
emissions estimates are correct.  The name of the QA reviewer and the date of the
review should be recorded on the form.

6.2.2  QA  REVIEW  OF A  STATE OZONE PRECURSOR INVENTORY

The results of QA checks  of North Carolina's ozone  precursor inventories were
described in a paper presented  at a meeting of the Air and Waste Management
Association in June 1994 (Boothe and Chandler, 1994).  For onroad mobile sources, QA


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(6
                                        TABLE 2.6-1
                               VDEQ CORRECTIVE ACTION FORM
Source Category
Issue
VDEQ
Person
Responsible
Proposed
Date of
Resolution
Action
Plan
Revised Inventory
Reviewed and Approved
(signature, date)
AREA SOURCES
Surface Cleaning
Asphalt Paving
Gasoline Tank Truck
Unloading (Stage 1)
Wood Consumption
Prescribed/Slash
Burning
Municipal Solid Waste
Landfills
Pesticides/Commercial-
Consumer Solvent Use
• Use adjusted employment (total-
point) to calculate area emissions.
• Apply effects of regulations or
state clearly that there are none.
• Use 42 gal/bbl for conversion.
• Recalculate emissions without CE.
• Do not apply in counties outside
VOC control areas.
• Recalculate controlled emissions.
Residential:
• Use correct heating value;
• Use general wood stove factor
rather than catalytic.
Commercial/Institutional:
• Use correct heating value.
Industrial:
• Use correct heating value;
• Use SAP of 1 (or justify if less).
• Recalculate emissions after
correcting error in input data.
• Use emission factor consistent
with EPA landfill model.
• Correct for double-counting.



















































CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION

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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTA TION                                                 1/6/97
checks of VMT applications and projections included consistency checks of VMT data,
evaluation of linear regression analysis determining total rural and urban VMT for all
counties in the domain, and review of the disaggregation process of projected rural and
urban VMT.  QA checks applied to nonroad mobile source spreadsheets verified that
the correct EPA-supplied spreadsheet was used, the correct county populations were
used, and that the projected NOX emission factors were adjusted to reflect future NOX
standards.

For area source spreadsheets, QA checks determined if point source adjustments were
correctly made and  evaluated formulas used to estimate emissions. QA checklists were
developed to track and ensure that all sources were reviewed and to document any
errors that were found.  To QA point source emissions estimates,  the EPA SIP Air
Pollutant Inventory  Management Systems (SAMS) internal QA utilities were used to
verify that required  fields had proper parameter data entries.  When the point source
data were in EPA batch transaction format, additional QA checks were performed.

Based on the results of the QA checks implemented by the NC Department of
Environmental, Health and Natural Resources (DEHNR)  and described briefly above,
the authors concluded that although the QA process can take significant time and effort,
implementation of a rigorous QA system throughout the entire inventory development
process ultimately saves  time by reducing the processing of invalid emissions files. A
thorough QA system that is well documented will also ensure greater confidence in the
modeling results (Boothe and Chandler,  1994).

6.2.3 QA REVIEW OF  AN INVENTORY FOR A SPECIFIC INDUSTRY

Another example of documentation of QA/QC activities is shown in Table 2.6-2.  The
completeness and reasonableness checks listed in Table 2.6-2 were delineated in a
project undertaken to  assess air quality impacts associated with the development of
outer continental shelf (OCS) petroleum reserves using photochemical modeling
(Steiner et al., 1994).  Emissions were estimated by soliciting activity and operating data
with survey forms.  The survey data were entered into Paradox® database tables and
input into an inventory system designed in the format required by the EPA's Urban
Airshed Model (UAM) Emissions Preprocessor System (EPS).  Emissions were
calculated using EPA emission factors.

To ensure that the quality of the inventory was technically acceptable, a series of
automated checks were developed to review the platform data for completeness and
reasonableness.  For example, reported  latitude and longitude were verified,  and data
were plotted to identify sources outside  the inventory domain. Equipment ratings,
annual fuel usage, and annual equipment usage were verified by calculating theoretical
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    CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTATION
                                 TABLE 2.6-2
       SUMMARY OF THE SURVEY DATA REVIEWED FOR COMPLETENESS AND
         REASONABLENESS IN THE OCS PRODUCTION-RELATED INVENTORY"
                      Field
Completeness
   Check
Reasonableness
    Check
  Platform
    Longitude & latitude
    Crude/condensate & gas throughput
    Percent of production in summer of
    crude/condensate and gas
    Flare and vent stack height
    Vent stack velocity
    Vent diameter
    Number of liquid fuel oil storage tanks per
    platform & total liquid fuel oil storage capacity
    per platform
    N/A
     •
  Equipment
    Equipment type
    Engine type
    Fuel type
    Annual usage
    Annual fuel usage
    Equipment stack velocity
    Equipment stack height
    Equipment stack diameter
    Annual average load = (annual fuel use * fuel
    consumption rate)/(annual use)
   N/A
   N/A
   N/A
   N/A
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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENTA TION
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                                  TABLE 2.6-2
                                   CONTINUED
                      Field
Completeness
   Check
Reasonableness
    Check
  Crude Tanks
        Capacity
        Average daily throughput
        Dimensions
        Tank color
                     •
                    N/A
  Crew/Supply Helicopters
        Longitude & latitude of home airport
        Average number of landings & takeoffs per
        month
        Average cruising speeds
        Geographical area served
        Monthly hours of operation
        Rated capacity
        Fuel usage at rated capacity
        Annual hours in operation
                    N/A
 Crew/Supply Vessels
        Monthly hours of operation
        Time at idle at platforms during hours of
        operation
        Monthly fuel usage
        Fuel type
        Geographic area served
        Annual hours of operation
                    N/A
a • = data checked; N/A = not applicable or necessary.
Source:  Steiner et al., 1994.
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 1/6/9 7                                                 CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENT A TION
 annual average loads, and flagging any equipment ratings greater than 200 percent or
 less than 20 percent of the calculated annual average loads.

 Tables were generated of data that failed the completeness and reasonableness checks.
 Data in the tables were then checked against the original survey form data, and any
 changes made  to the data were documented in the project file.  Data corrections were
 entered into a  data correction module within the inventory system.  Corrections made
 typically consisted of unit conversions, which significantly affected the emissions
 estimates.

 This example shows how QA procedures should be tailored to fit the inventory. The list
 of data reviewed is very specific to the industry. The level of detail gives the user some
 confidence in the quality of the QA program itself.  (This paper also provides a good
 qualitative summary of uncertainty, which is discussed in Chapter 4 of this volume.)

 The QA/QC efforts applied to this inventory resulted in corrections being made to
 6,000 records, identification of three omitted platforms, and a decrease of more than
 two orders of magnitude in total estimated  emissions.

 6.3  REPORTING THE INVENTORY ESTIMATES

 Some sort of final report is required, if only to convey the results to interested parties.
 The simplest report  might be a table (or set of tables). This may be all that some end-
 users want or need.

 In most cases, however, detailed inventory and QA/QC reports are crucial. An example
 of a formal  inventory report is one prepared as a SIP submission. This type of report
 includes summary tables, raw listings of equipment, activity levels and emissions from
 individual sources, and a QA report. A detailed inventory report allows comparison of
 baseline inventories  from one area to another, the evaluation of the impact of control
 strategies, and  facilitates updates to the  inventory and development of projection
 inventories.

 The 1992 EPA report Example Documentation Report for 1990 Base Year Ozone and
 Carbon Monoxide State Implementation Plan Emission Inventories provides examples of
 formal inventory  reporting (EPA, 1992). This document provides guidance for
 presenting and  documenting SIP emissions inventories, and contains examples  of how
 state and local  agencies should present and  verify inventory development efforts.
 Example inventory documentation is presented for point, area, mobile, and biogenic
 sources.  The QA documentation section of a formal emissions inventory report should
 provide enough information to enable comparison of the QA/QC steps completed with


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CHAPTER 2 - DOCUMENT A TION                                                 1/6/9 7
those described in the QA plan.  Examples are also presented that illustrate how the
procedures used to implement the QA plan should be documented, as well  as the results
of the QA procedures.

Another example of very specific reporting requirements can be found in the first
volume  of the IPCC Draft Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
(IPCC/OECD,  1994a) that specifies the following four documentation standards:

      1.     "National inventory reports should provide minimum information to
             enable the results to be reconstructed, and to justify the choice of
             methodology and data used.  This means, for example, that to the
             extent possible, activity data  should be provided at the level of
             detail at which the emissions are estimated.

      2.     Documentation should contain enough information  to explain
             differences between national methods and  data,  and the IPCC
             default methods and assumptions. Reasons for the  differences
             should be explained and sources of emission factors and other
             national data should also be  clearly cited.  Minimum requirements
             include: emission factors, activity data, and a list of references
             documenting any differences from IPCC recommendations.

      3.     Measurement studies containing new values should  be referenced,
             and made available upon request. It is preferable that new emission
             factor data be contained in published sources.

      4.     Documentation should be kept for future years (by  the country and
             by the IPCC) and countries are  encouraged to publish the
             documentation of their inventories.  This extensive record keeping
             will facilitate the recalculation of historical inventory estimates when
             changes in national methods or  assumptions occur."

The IPCC reporting guidelines (OECD, 1994a) provide more than 30 tables to be
completed and submitted as part of the inventory report. An example inventory quality
table was shown in Figure 2.4-1.  Another example with one of the data tables is shown
in Figure 2.6-2.
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 REFERENCES
 Boothe, L. and V. Chandler.  1994.  Quality Assurance of North Carolina Precursors of
 Ozone Inventories, Emission Preprocessor System and the Urban Airshed Model Output.
 Presented at the 87th Air and Waste Management Association Annual Meeting and
 Exhibition, Cincinnati, Ohio, June 19-24.

 IPCC/OECD (1994a). Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reporting Instructions. IPCC Draft
 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 1.

 IPCC/OECD (1994b). Greenhouse Gas Inventory Workbook.  IPCC Draft Guidelines
 for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 2.

 IPCC/OECD (1994c). Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reference Manual. IPCC Draft
 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 3.

 Mobley, J.D. and M. Saeger.  1994.  Procedures for Verification of Emissions
 Inventories: Report of the Expert Panel on Emissions Verification.  Prepared for The
 United Nations Task Force on Emissions Inventories, Economic Commission for
 Europe.

 Steiner, C.K.R, L. Gardner, M.C. Causley, M.A. Yocke, and W.L. Steorts,  1994.
 Inventory Quality Issues Associated  with the Development of an Emissions Inventory for
 the Minerals Management Service Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study.  In: Emissions
 Inventory: Perception and Reality, Proceedings of an International Specialty Conference,
 VIP-38. Air and Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, pp. 327-
 338.

 U.S. EPA. 1995.  Development of Area Source Hazardous Air Pollutant Inventories.
 Volume 1: Air Toxic Emission Inventories for the Chicago Area.  U.S. Environmental
 Protection Agency, Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory, Draft Report.
 Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

 U.S. EPA. 1994. AEERL Quality Assurance Procedures Manual for  Contractors and
 Financial Assistance Recipients.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air and Energy
 Engineering Research  Laboratory.  Research  Triangle  Park, North Carolina.
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U.S. EPA.  1992. Example Documentation Report for 1990 Base Year Ozone and Carbon
Monoxide State Implementation Plan Emission Inventories.  U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency,  Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA-450/4-92-007.
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

U.S. EPA.  1989. Quality Assurance Program for Post-1987 Ozone and Carbon Monoxide
State Implementation Plan Emission Inventories. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and  Standards, EPA-450/4-89-004.  Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina.

U.S. EPA.  1988. Guidance for the  Preparation of Quality Assurance Plans for O^/CO
SIP Emission Inventories.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards, EPA-450/4-88-023. Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

U.S. EPA.  1986. Quality Assurance and Quality Control Plan for the NAPAP 1985
Emission Inventory.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory, EPA-600/8-86-025.  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
2.7-2                                                                  EW Volume Vt

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 VOLUME VI:  CHAPTERS
GENERAL QA/QC METHODS
June 1997
                        Prepared by:
                        Radian Corporation

                        Prepared for:
                        Quality Assurance Committee
                        Emission Inventory Improvement Program

-------
                                 DISCLAIMER

This document was furnished to the Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP)
and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by Radian Corporation, Research Triangle
Park, North Carolina. This report is intended to be a final document and has been
reviewed and approved for publication.  The opinions, findings, and conclusions
expressed represent a consensus of the members of the Emission Inventory Improvement
Program. Mention of company or product names is not to be considered as an
endorsement by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

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 CONTENTS
Section                                                                    Page

1     Introduction to Methods  	  3.1-1

2     Reality Checks	  3.2-1
      2.1    Overview of Method 	  3.2-2
      2.2    Comparison to Reference Value  	  3.2-3
      2.3    Comparison to Other Regions	  3.2-4
      2.4    Comparison to Other Categories	  3.2-5

3     Peer Review  	  3.3-1
      3.1    Overview of Method 	  3.3-2
      3.2    Checklists  	  3.3-2
             3.2.1   EPA's Level I and Level II Checklists	  3.3-3
             3.2.2   Chicago Area Source Toxics Inventory	  3.3-3
      3.3    Peer Reviewer Reports  	  3.3-3

4     Sample Calculations	  3.4-1
      4.1    Overview of Method 	  3.4-2
      4.2    Replication of Spreadsheet or Hand Calculations	  3.4-3
      4.3    Replication of Complex Calculations	  3.4-3

5     Computerized Checks  	  3.5-1
      5.1    Overview of Method 	  3.5-2
             5.1.1   Range and Character Checks  	  3.5-5
             5.1.2   Look-up Tables	  3.5-5
             5.1.3   Pull-Down Menus	  3.5-6
      5.2    Internal Checks and Reports: CEIDARS, RAPIDS, Standardized
             Spreadsheets	  3.5-6
             5.2.1   CEIDARS  	  3.5-7
             5.2.2   RAPIDS	  3.5-8
             5.2.3   Standardized Spreadsheets/Databases	  3.5-9
             5.2.4   Spreadsheet Auditing Functions	  3.5-14
      5.3    Stand-Alone Programs	  3.5-14
             5.3.1   EIQA	  3.5-14
             5.3.2   Mobile Input Data Analysis System (MIDAS)	  3.5-24
             5.3.3   Visual Auditing Programs	  3.5-25
      5.4    User-Defined Automated QA Checks  	  3.5-27

6     Sensitivity Analysis	  3.6-1
      6.1    Overview of Method 	  3.6-2
      6.2    Sensitivity Analysis for an Area Source Inventory	3.6-5

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CONTENTS  (CONTINUED)
Section                                                                  Page

      6.3    Sensitivity Analysis of EPA's Motor Vehicle Emission Factor Model   3.6-9
      6.4    Sensitivity of Air Quality Models to Inventory Input Data  	  3.6-10

7     Statistical Checks	  3.7-1
      7.1    Overview of Methods 	  3.7-2
      7.2    Descriptive Statistics 	  3.7-3
            7.2.1  Testing for Normality 	  3.7-12
      7.3    Statistical Quality Control  	  3.7-19
            7.3.1  An Example  of Acceptance Sampling by Attributes	  3.7-21
            7.3.2  Specifying a Sample Plan 	  3.7-22
            7.3.3  Outlier Analysis: Acceptance Sampling by Variables	  3.7-25
      7.4    Statistical Procedures for Comparability Analysis	  3.7-28
      7.5    Example of a Statistically Based Comparability Analysis: Regression
            Model using Dummy Variables 	  3.7-30

8     Independent Audits	  3.8-1
      8.1    Overview of Method 	  3.8-2
            8.1.1  Adequate Training  	  3.8-3
            8.1.2  Managerial Support	  3.8-4
            8.1.3  Good  Planning 	  3.8-4
            8.1.4  Effective Audit Procedures  	  3.8-11
            8.1.5  Audit  Report 	  3.8-15
      8.2    Types of Audits	  3.8-18
            8.2.1  Management Systems Audits	  3.8-19
            8.2.2  Technical Systems Audits 	  3.8-20
            8.2.3  Performance  Evaluation Audits	  3.8-22
            8.2.4  Data Quality Audits  	  3.8-23
            8.2.5  Data/Report Audits  	  3.8-25
      8.3    Preferred and Alternative Methods  	  3.8-26
            8.3.1  Independent/External Audit  	  3.8-27
            8.3.2  Internal Audit	  3.8-28
            8.3.3  Internal Data Checking	  3.8-29

9     Emissions Estimation Validation	  3.9-1
      9.1    Overview of Method 	  3.9-2
      9.2    Direct and Indirect Measurements	  3.9-3
      9.3    Receptor Modeling	  3.9-7
      9.4    Inverse Air Quality Modeling	3.9-8

10    References 	  3.10-1
iv                                                                  BIP Volume VI

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 FIGURES
                                                                           Page

3.2-1   Comparison of Per Capita Daily VOC Emissions  	 3.2-6

3.3-1   Example of a Peer Review Checklist	 3.3-4

3.3-2   Example of Written Peer Review Report  	 3.3-5

3.4-1A Example Spreadsheet Calculation	 3.4-4

3.4-1B Example of Hand-calculated Check of Spreadsheet Result  	 3.4-5

3.4-2   Example Hand-calculated Check of Database Algorithm	 3.4-7

3.5-1   Example of Standardized Spreadsheet  for an Area Source	  3.5-11

3.5-2   Example of Standardized Spreadsheet  for Point Source Actual Emissions  3.5-13

3.5-3   Point Source Spreadsheet Toggled to Produce Potential Emissions 	  3.5-15

3.5-4   Example of Visual Tracing of Cells Using a Spreadsheet Audit Function .  3.5-16

3.5-5   Example of Cell Formulas Listing Using a Spreadsheet Audit Function . .  3.5-17

3.5-6   EIQA Point Sources Completeness Report	  3.5-20

3.5-7   EIQA Area Sources SIP Rule in Place Consistency Check  	  3.5-23

3.5-8   Summary of Results from MIDAS Review of the MOBILESa Input Files  3.5-26

3.5-9   Example of Visual Auditing Tool  	  3.5-28

3.5-10  Examples of QA Scatter Plots	  3.5-30

3.6-1   Percent  VOC by Estimation Methodology	 3.6-8

3.6-2   Effect of Population, Employment on Area Source VOCs	 3.6-9

3.6-3   Sensitivity of NMHC, NOX Emissions  	  3.6-12

3.7-1   Histogram Plot of TOG Emissions for  Los Angeles, No Data
       Transformation	  3.7-14

EIIP Volume VI                                                                   V

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FIGURES  (CONTINUED)
                                                                      Page

3.7-2   Histogram of TOG Emissions from Los Angeles Point Sources, Log
       Transformation	  3.7-15

3.7-3   Example Expected Normal Plot for Los Angeles Point Source Emissions .  3.7-16

3.7-4   Expected Normal Plot of Los Angeles Point Source NOX Emissions
       without a Log Transformation  	  3.7-18

3.7-5   Histogram of Los Angeles Log-Transformed NOX Emissions Data
       Illustrating a Bimodal Distribution  	  3.7-20

3.7-6   Probability of Accepting a Dataset as Error Free for Three Different
       Sample Sizes  	  3.7-23

3.7-7   Probability of Accepting a Dataset as Error Free when 10% Sample Size
       is Used 	  3.7-24

3.7-8   Graphical Comparison of Reported and Predicted VMT Values	  3.7-31

3.8-1   Example SIP Emission Inventory Organization Chart  	  3.8-5

3.8-2   Key Elements of Database Use and Operation	  3.8-8

3.8-3   Example Information Flow Chart	  3.8-10

3.8-4   Example Data Audit Checklist	  3.8-14

3.8-5   Recommendation for Corrective Action  	  3.8-17

3.9-1   Single Adjustment Factor for All CO Sources	  3.9-10
vi                                                                EIIP Volume VI

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TABLES
                                                                            Page




3.1-1  Primary QA/QC Functions of General Types of Methods	  3.1-2




3.1-2  Minimum Recommended QA/QC Activities by Inventory Category  	3.1-4




3.2-1  Reality Checks:  Preferred and Alternative Methods	  3.2-2




3.2-2  Standard References for Commonly Used Data (Annual Updates)	  3.2-3




3.3-1  Peer Review:  Preferred and Alternative Methods  	  3.3-2




3.4-1  Calculation Checks:  Preferred and Alternative Methods  	  3.4-3




3.5-1  Summary of Common Automated Checks  	  3.5-4




3.6-1  Key Variables for Some Emissions  Estimation Models	  3.6-3




3.6-2  Key Inventory Variables for Some Air Quality Models	  3.6-4




3.6-3  Sensitivity Analyses:  Preferred and Alternative Methods	  3.6-5




3.6-4  Daily VOC Inventory for a State 	  3.6-6




3.6-5  Model Input Values Used for MOBILE4.1 Sensitivity Analysis	 3.6-11




3.7-1  Commonly Used Statistical Descriptors  	  3.7-5




3.7-2  Probability Distributions Relevant to Emissions Inventories 	 3.7-11




3.7-3  Data Transformations Used to "Normalize" Data	 3.7-12




3.7-4  Descriptive Statistics for Los Angeles Point Source Inventory	 3.7-13




3.7-5  Results of Dummy Variable Regression Analysis of County VMT Data  . . 3.7-32




3.8-1  Objectives  of Different Audit Types	 3.8-12




3.8-2  Preferred and Alternative Methods:  Audits	 3.8-27
EIIP Volume VI                                                                   vii

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TABLES  (CONTINUED)
                                                     Page

3.9-1 Comparison of Ambient and Inventory Ratios of CO/NOX and
    NMOC/NOX for Los Angeles for 1987	 3.9-5

3.9-2 Validation of Landfill Methane Emissions Models  	 3.9-6
                                                 £HP Volume VI

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 1
 INTRODUCTION TO  METHODS	

 This chapter is a compilation of methods that can be used to implement a quality
 assurance/quality control (QA/QC) program, and should be consulted when preparing
 the quality assurance plan (QAP) at the beginning of inventory development (see
 Chapter 2 of this volume).  The QA/QC methods to be employed should be determined
 and specified in the QAP.  The data quality objectives (DQOs) and the inventory level
 will determine which methods and the number of different methods that are adequate
 for a given inventory.  Such methods need not be limited to those described in this
 document; in fact, the inventory preparer is  encouraged to develop or identify new tools
 or methods as needed to meet the DQOs set for the inventory.

 The QA/QC methods described in this chapter are classified into the following general
 categories based on the type of activity involved:

      •     Reality checks;

      •     Peer review;

      •     Sample calculations;

      •     Computerized checks;

      •     Sensitivity analysis;

      •     Statistical checks;

      •     Independent audits; and

      •     Emissions estimation validation.

 These methods are presented in order of increasing  complexity.  Each method has
 specific functions, although methods can be combined to cover a wider range of
 functions. The more complex and/or labor-intensive methods fulfill more than one
 function.  Table 3.1-1 shows the primary function(s)  of each type of method.

 Any one of these methods by itself does not constitute a complete QA/QC program.
 Table 3.1-2 shows the minimum combination of methods recommended by the Emission
 Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP) for inventories at each level (see Chapter 2,


EIIP Volume VI                                                            3.1-1

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K>
                                            TABLE 3.1-1
                        PRIMARY QA/QC FUNCTIONS OF GENERAL TYPES OF METHODS
Method
Reality checks
Peer review
Sample calculations
Computerized checks
Sensitivity analysis
Statistical checks
Independent audits
Emissions estimation
validation
Ensure
Reasonableness
of Emissions,
Data
X
X

X

X
X
X
Ensure Validity
of Assumptions,
Methods

X


X

X
X
Ensure
Mathematical
Correctness


X
X

X
X

Ensure
Valid Data
Were
Used


X
X


X

Optimize
QA/QC
Efforts




X

X

Ensure Proper
Implementation of
QA/QC Program






X

Assess
Accuracy of
Estimates







X
i
                                                                                             Co
                                                                                             o
                                                                                             o
                                                                                             3
                                                                                             O
                                                                                             s


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6/12/97                                                  CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 Section 1 of this volume).  Two of the methods-computerized checks and statistical
 checks-are not included in Table 3.1-2 because their function can largely be achieved
 using other methods.  Moreover, these two general types of methods require specialized
 tools and/or expertise that may not be available to everyone.  However, computerized
 and statistical checks can and should be used to the extent possible. They usually allow
 the processing of greater amounts of data than manual methods, and also reduce the
 chance of human error (on the part of the reviewer).  Emissions estimation validation is
 also not listed in Table 3.1-2 because it requires resources and expertise that are beyond
 the capabilities of many organizations; however, these methods are very valuable as
 QA/QC tools and can be used to enhance the value of a QA program.

 The methods presented in this chapter are designed to minimize the errors that can
 occur when developing an emission inventory.  These errors can be of two types:
 procedural and technical.

 Procedural errors result from unclear and ineffective management,  inadequately trained
 staff, improper planning, lack of adequate QA, lack of data tracking and handling
 protocols, and other problems related to how the work gets done.

 Technical errors are directly related to the methods and technologies used to develop
 emission estimates.  They may result from:

       •     Incorrect use of spreadsheets and databases:  Certain types of errors are
             solely a consequence of the mechanics of databases and spreadsheets.  For
             example, an  inadvertent reference to the wrong cell in a  spreadsheet or
             retrieval of information from the wrong storage location  in a database is
             very difficult to  detect if the information in the erroneous data source and
             in the desired data source are similar.

       •     Mathematical errors: These types of errors can occur in hand calculations
             or in spreadsheets. They include the use of incorrect conversion factors,
             mismatched units in the emission factor and activity parameters, incorrect
             constants, and arithmetic errors.

       •     Incorrect use of emission inventory software:  Software for  calculating
             emissions is generally designed to minimize errors; however, it is possible
             to incorrectly calculate emissions if the user does not follow the
             instructions.

       •     Use of incorrect data: This covers a wide range of errors  including the use
             of out-of-date data, inappropriate surrogate data, and data that do not
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
     6/12/97
                                   TABLE 3.1-2

       MINIMUM RECOMMENDED QA/QC ACTIVITIES BY INVENTORY CATEGORY
Method
Reality checks
Peer review
Sample
calculations
Sensitivity
analysis
Independent
audits
Level 1
/
/
^
/
/
Level 2
/
/
/
/a
/a
Level3
/
/
/


Level 4
/
/



a Level 2 may include fewer audits and/or different types of sensitivity analyses and audits than Level 1.

             correctly match the source category definition.  This applies to both
             activity data and emission factors.

       •      Use of incorrect methodology and/or assumptions:  Methodology is defined
             to include both computer models (e.g., MOBILESb) and prescribed
             methodology (e.g., the use of gasoline throughput in a county and an
             emission factor to calculate evaporative emissions from gasoline dispensing
             is a type of model).  This category covers just about any other errors not
             included in the first four error types.

       •      Failure to include all sources: This addresses inventory completeness.  For
             a point source inventory, the omission of some emission units makes an
             inventory incomplete. For a regional inventory, this also covers failure to
             include entire source categories.

       •      Double-counting emissions:  Double-counting of emissions between area
             and point source inventories is a technical error that results in an
             overestimate of the emissions reported.

This chapter primarily covers QA/QC methods that address technical errors, although
the section on independent audits includes methods for reducing procedural errors.
Other chapters of this volume (Planning and Documentation, Model QA Plan) as well as
3.1-4
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6/12/97                                                CHAPTER 3 • QA/QC METHODS
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) guidance (EPA, 1988; EPA, 1989)
 address procedural QA activities. In general, avoiding or minimizing procedural errors
 will reduce the likelihood of technical errors.
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                          This page is intentionally left blank.
3.1-6                                                                       EIIP Volume VI

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 REALITY  CHECKS
 QUICK REVIEW
        Definition:
        Objective:
        Optimal usage:
       Minimum expertise
       required:
       Advantages:

       Limitations:
An assessment of an emission estimate or data
designed to answer the question, "Does this make
sense?"

Ensure that the value being checked is not wildly
improbable, or that it is within a specified range
or limit  that is considered reasonable.

Anywhere and everywhere throughout the
inventory development process. This method
provides the quickest and easiest means of
spotting large  mistakes before the process has
advanced very far.

Moderate.  Although relatively inexperienced
inventory developers can be trained to use this
method  (provided they are given some guidance
and documents to use as a reference), personnel
with some experience with emission inventories
will be the most efficient and effective.
Quick, easy.

(1) It is  possible that a value is "reasonable" but is
still wrong, (2) it is possible that a value appears
unreasonable but is still right,  (3) the method does
not give any insight into the source of an error,
and (4) the method is only reliable if a valid point
of reference is available.
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
    6/12/97
2.1  OVERVIEW OF METHOD

The reality check is probably the most commonly used QA/QC method.  It can be
particularly useful for catching large errors early in the process.  This check is a form of
assessment to answer the questions "Is this number reasonable?  Does it make sense?"
However, it is important to remember that an estimate can appear to be wrong (that is,
higher or lower than expected) but still be right.  The opposite is also true—a value can
look reasonable when it is  actually incorrect. For these reasons, the reality check is
never used as the sole criterion of quality.

To be able to answer the above  questions, some notion of a reasonable value must be
known.  If the questioner is knowledgeable about emission inventories, he or she  may
not need an external reference to answer the question. However, if a standard
reference value is available, the  preferred method for a reality check is to use an
external reference value.

Other types of reality checks include comparing the value to its equivalent value from a
previous  or alternative inventory or database. Another check might compare the
estimated emissions to those calculated for the same category in a nearby or similar
region. Table 3.2-1 summarizes  the preferred and alternative methods for performing
reality checks.

                                  TABLE 3.2-1

            REALITY CHECKS:  PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS
Method
Preferred
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative 3
Alternative 4
Procedure
Compare data or estimate to a standard reference value.
Compare data or estimate to a value from a previous or alternative
inventory (or database) for the same region.
Compare data to values used for other regions.
Use expert or engineering judgment to assess the reasonableness
the values.
of
Compare estimates for similar categories within the same
inventory.
3.2-2
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 6/12/97
                CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 2.2  COMPARISON TO  REFERENCE VALUE

 This method can be used to assess the reasonableness of the emission estimates or of
 the data used to calculate those estimates.  For a Level 1  or 2 inventory, this method
 should be used as much as possible.  For example, emissions for many area source
 categories are estimated using population, employment, or other readily available
 surrogates for emissive activities. Generally, the preferred area source  estimation
 method  is to use local survey data. A good reality check for these locally obtained
 values is to compare them to some of the statistics generated by federal (or other)
 agencies.

 Standard references for commonly used data are shown in Table 3.2-2.  These data
 sources  are often used as a source of activity data for area source calculations; in these
 cases, an alternative reference for reality  checks is needed.

                                   TABLE 3.2-2

      STANDARD REFERENCES FOR COMMONLY USED DATA (ANNUAL UPDATES)
                Reference
       Types of Data
  Resolution
  U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of
  the Census (year).  19	Census of
  Population and Housing, Summary
  Population and Housing Characteristics,
  (state, year) CPH-1-34.
  Washington, DC.a
Population, number of
housing units by type
Townships,
other sub-
county units
  U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau
  of the Census (year). County Business
  Patterns - (state, year).
  Washington, DC.a
Employment by Standard
Industrial Classification
(SIC) code and size of
establishments
County level
  U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of
  the Census (year).  19	Census of
  Manufacturers. Geographic Series
  MC87-A1 to -51. Washington, DC.a
Employment, hours
worked, value of shipments
and other data by SIC code
group
County and
state level
  U.S. Department of Commerce (year).
  Statistical Abstract of the United States,
  (year).  Washington, DC.a
Wide variety of useful data:
economics, population
characteristics, energy use,
industrial production
National,
regional;
some state
level data
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
                                    6/12/97
                                   TABLE 3.2-2

                                   CONTINUED
               Reference
      Types of Data
  Resolution
  U.S. Department of Energy, (year).
  State Energy Data Report Consumption
  Estimates, 1960-year, Energy
  Information Administration,
  SOW/EIA-0124(xx).  Washington, DC.
Fossil fuel consumption by
sector
State level
  U.S. Department of Transportation,
  (year).  Highway Statistics (year).
  Federal Highway Administration,
  Washington, DC.
Vehicle miles travelled,
onroad and offroad fuel
consumption
State level
  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
  1993.  Regional Interim Emission
  Inventories (1987-1991), Volume 1:
  Development Methodologies,
  EPA-454/R-93-021a.  Research
  Triangle Park, NC.
Emissions of criteria
pollutants
County level
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
 1994. National Air Pollutant Emissions
 Trends,  1990-1993. EPA-454/R-94-027.
 Research Triangle Park, NC.
Emissions of criteria
pollutants
National
  Data based on most recent census; therefore, accuracy decreases each year beyond the most recent
  census.
2.3  COMPARISON  TO  OTHER REGIONS

Another type of reality check is to compare results to those from different regions.
A region that is very similar  may be chosen with the expectation of similar emission
estimates. An alternative approach is to contrast regions known to be different with the
expectation that one region will have higher emissions than the other.

When using this approach, care should be taken to consider (and possibly remove) any
effects that make comparisons unequal.  For example, two counties may be similar in
terms of type of industry and community characteristics, but very different in size.
3.2-4
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 6/12/97                                                 CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 Therefore, comparing emissions on a per capita, per employment, or other consistent
 basis should be considered.

 Figure 3.2-1 shows an example of a graphical comparison of daily volatile organic
 compound (VOC) emissions on a per-capita basis in three neighboring regions:  the
 portion (multiple counties) of a large Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) in State 1,
 the portion of the MSA in State 2, and an adjacent county in State 1 that is more
 similar to the State 2 MSA region with respect to population density, road types, and
 industrial development. The expectation was that the State 1 adjacent county and
 State 2 MSA region would have more similar per capita emissions than the densely
 populated State 1 MSA region.  The onroad emissions are as expected:  vehicle miles
 travelled (VMT) per capita is lower on average in densely populated urban areas.
 However, nonroad emissions for these three areas should be more similar on a per-
 capita basis.  The discrepancy in area source emissions was also cause for concern
 because both inventories were known to be complete in  their coverage of sources. This
 reality check suggested that the data and methods used for nonroad and area source
 emissions need further investigating (this example came  from early draft inventories of
 an actual urban area; the  difference in nonroad emissions were found to be the  result of
 inventory developers from the various regions using different  technical approaches to
 calculate emissions.  The area source differences were found to be partly due to
 differences in the types of sources and to differences in the level  of controls in place).

 2.4  COMPARISON TO  OTHER CATEGORIES

 Comparing categories within an inventory to other categories  within the same inventory
 is another type of reality check.  For example,  nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions from
 utility boilers could be compared to those from industrial space heaters (point sources).
 Emissions from solvent usage from different area source categories could also be
 compared relative to the anticipated level of solvent usage or prevalence of controls. In
 both examples one may expect to find dissimilar  emission estimates; the degree of
 dissimilarity to expect serves  as the reality check and is dependent on the experience of
 the inventory developer.

 Global  checking of this type could help to quickly identify emissions estimates that may
 be erroneous. Additional  checking is  needed when data  are suspected to be
 unreasonable. One must remember that reality checking is merely a screening process;
 therefore, it should never be  used solely as a means of determining data quality.
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
    6/12/97
                                           S   8   8
                                           o   o   o
       FIGURE 3.2-1. COMPARISON OF PER CAPITA DAILY VOC EMISSIONS
3.2-6
EIIP Volume VI

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 PEER  REVIEW
 QUICK REVIEW
       Definition:
        Objective:
        Optimal usage:
       Minimum expertise
       required:
       Advantages:

       Limitations:
An independent review of calculations, assumptions,
and/or documentation by a knowledgeable expert in
the technical field.  This is generally accomplished by
reading or reviewing documentation, but may not
include rigorous certification of data or references
such as might be done in a technical audit (see
Section 8 of this chapter, "Independent Audits").
Ensure that assumptions and procedures used are
reasonable and meet expectations as judged by persons
knowledgeable in a specific field.
At critical points where: (1) information is organized
in a manner amenable to review, (2) before critical
decisions or commitment of large amounts of
resources must be made, and (3) when the document,
inventory, or database  is completed, but prior to its
release.
Moderate to high. Although the term "peer" implies
equality, the most effective peer review is often done
by someone with a high level of expertise.  At a
minimum, the expertise of the  reviewer should be
equivalent to the expertise required to manage  the
aspect of the inventory development activities from
which the data to be reviewed  were generated.
Usually not a labor-intensive effort; very flexible.
(1)  Peer review is a form of reality check (and
therefore has similar limitations), (2) the review is
often general and does not check accuracy or quality
of original data, and (3) for a large and/or complex
inventory, it is very easy for a peer reviewer to miss
errors.
EIIP Volume VI
                                                3.3-1

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS	6/12/97


3.1   OVERVIEW  OF METHOD

The peer review process is very flexible and generally does not require specific tools;
however, the use of checklists or review forms, which also provide a means of
documenting QA/QC procedures,  is strongly encouraged. If checklists are not used, the
peer reviewer should provide feedback in the form of written comments.  In some cases,
the peer reviewer's comments may be transmitted verbally, however, the inventory
developer should document when the review took place, the major points or items of
discussion, and steps that will be taken to address the comments.  Table 3.3-1
summarizes the preferred and alternative methods.

                                  TABLE 3.3-1

              PEER  REVIEW:  PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS
Method
Preferred
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Procedure
Use of a checklist showing elements to be covered by the review.
Provides a guide for the peer reviewer and can be tailored to fit
specific situation.
Written comments by reviewer identifying issues noted.
Written notes summarizing reviewer's comments identifying issues
noted by reviewer as told to author of notes.
At a minimum (i.e., for a Level 4 inventory review), a peer reviewer will perform some
reality checks. A more in-depth review will include some checks of the calculations and
verification that correct data and emission factors were used. Access to original data
and reports is required to conduct in-depth reviews.  The extent of the review required
will depend on other QA/QC activities, the DQOs, and the inventory category
(Levels 1-4; see Chapter 2 of this volume).  If adequate calculation checks and/or data
verification are being conducted as part of the QA program, the peer reviewer may be
asked to concentrate on the validity of the methods and assumptions.

3.2  CHECKLISTS

The peer reviewer should have a clear understanding of what he  or she is expected  to
do.  A checklist is the  most expedient way to accomplish this. The completed checklist
also provides documentation that the specified QA program procedures were followed.

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 6/12/97                                                 CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 The peer review checklist is usually prepared by the Inventory Development Manager
 and the task leaders, with the assistance of the QA Coordinator and peer reviewer.
 Examples of checklists that can be used for peer review are discussed below.

 3.2.1  EPA's LEVEL I AND LEVEL II CHECKLISTS

 The EPA's Level I/Level II checklists were used to review the 1990 base year State
 Implementation Plan (SIP) inventories.  Many of the items are specific to SIP
 inventories and may not apply to other types of inventories.  An important limitation of
 the Level I checklist is that it only deals with procedures or methods used to calculate
 emissions-it does not address the validity of the assumptions or data used in the
 calculations. The Level  II checklist is more detailed, but also fails to fully address some
 of these important issues.

 A complete copy of the Level I and Level II checklists and guidance for  their use is
 found in Quality Review Guidelines for 1990 Base Year Emission Inventories
 (EPA-450/4-91-022)(EPA, 1991a). An automated  version of the checklists is available
 through the Clearinghouse for Inventories and Emission Factors (CHIEF) bulletin
 board.

 3.2.2 CHICAGO AREA  SOURCE Toxics INVENTORY

 The example checklist shown in Figure 3.3-1 was designed for a detailed  peer review of
 individual area source categories. The reviewer is  asked to answer nine specific
 questions.  The QA program for this inventory included extensive QC checks of the
 calculations and a procedural  audit, but no technical audit was planned.  Therefore, a
 thorough peer  review that included some data  verification and calculation checks was
 used (see Section 4, "Sample Calculations," of this chapter).

 This checklist includes a  place ("QC review") for the peer reviewer to sign. The QA
 review signature space is provided for the procedural audit.  The QA auditor signs to
 show that he or she reviewed the  form as part  of the audit (see Section 8, "Independent
 Audits," of this chapter).  The  auditor's signature indicates a check was performed to
 determine whether approved procedures were followed and whether problems identified
 were resolved.

 3.3  PEER REVIEWER  REPORTS

 These  reports may take the form of a memorandum or other less formal  report.
 Providing a form for the  reviewer's comments will facilitate the production of this
 report.  The example shown as Figure 3.3-2 is a reviewer's comments on calculations of
 VOC losses from gasoline distribution.  It is a good example of a peer review because

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
                                      6/12/97
                        CHICAGO AREA SOURCE TOXICS INVENTORY
                                  Source Category Review
   CATEGORY DESCRIPTION:
   INVENTORY REGIONS COVERED:



   NAME (person responsible for calculations):


   Signature (OC Review)	

   Signature (QA Review)	
Date

Date
Checklist
1 . Were all speciation profiles clearly referenced?
2. Were correct emission factors used?
3. Were sources of activity data clearly referenced?
4. Were correct activity data used?
5. Were annual emissions correctly adjusted from daily estimates?
6. Were all calculations documented?
7. Are calculations correct?
8. Were applicable regulations cited?
K so, were RE and RP correctly applied?
9. Were adjustments made to account for any excluded VOCs?
YES










NO










Could Not Be
Determined










   The following problems need to be corrected:
   ACTION TAKEN:
               FIGURE 3.3-1.  EXAMPLE OF A PEER REVIEW CHECKLIST
3.3-4
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 6/12/97                                                            CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
         QC-1 Comments on the NY SIP Inventory Gasoline Marketing Area Sources

         9/16/92

         GDRives

         1.      Emission factors are in general agreement with AP-42. Include tank truck in
                 transit loss emission factors in Table 2 of the  documentation.  Emission factors
                 could be refined a little bit to reflect typical gasoline RVP values and summer
                 temperatures.  Note that the state has a gasoline RVP restriction (<9 psia) during
                 the ozone  season (NY Rules Subpart 225-3, page 461:0593 BNR). Normal daily
                 mean temperature for NY is probably closer to 70° F for the ozone season than
                 60.  If you plan to refine emission factors any, I would probably select the
                 midpoint of the range  for transit losses since they have a tank truck tightness
                 testing and certification program.

         2.      Assumptions on filling methods are outlined nicely for the NY metro area, what
                 filling assumptions were used for  the other  areas? I recommend  expanding Table
                 1 to address all areas.

         3.      Table 1  and Table 3 are not parallel which  makes it difficult to review. I'd
                 recommend presenting all information in the same sequence (i.e., county and area
                 orders)

         4.      Table 3. Don't include NOx and  CO for this  source since they will just remain
                 blank. Instead, you could present annual gasoline throughput by county, and
                 assumptions on penetration of Stage I and II controls.  This would provide all the
                 activity data necessary  to independently perform calculations.

         5.      Table 3. A little bit of clarification on Table 3 would help the review. At first
                 glance, the columns don't add up  correctly.  With a more detailed look, you can
                 figure it  out but it leads to  confusion. For example, NY Metro Area appears to
                 have  11 components for a total of 13,192 tpy.  However, "NYC Sum" appears to be
                 a subtotal of the same  group and should not be included in the totals, by the
                 indention it appears to be just another county.  Why don't we put NYC sum under
                 the subtotal row?

         6.       Calculations look real good for NY area including the application  of rule
                 effectiveness for loading operations.  I've checked a couple of the  counties, and
                 they are  spot on. I can't independently verify the  calcs  for other areas, why did we
                 use 90% rule effectiveness for loading?

         7.       I would have probably applied rule effectiveness when calculating emissions from
                 submerged  filling as well as vapor balance.   I understand that  you  have already
                 discussed with  EPA and have reached consensus.
               FIGURE 3.3-2.  EXAMPLE OF WRITTEN PEER  REVIEW REPORT

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS                                                       6/12/97
          8.      I reviewed all of the county-specific gasoline throughput values to ensure that
                 the data were correctly transcribed from the hard-copy supplied by the state
                 energy office to our spreadsheets.  With the exception of Tiago County, all
                 matched correctly.  Note that Tiago County should be 25460 instead of 25450.

          9.      Have we performed any sanity checks on these gasoline consumption data? A
                 couple of checks would be to calculate gal/person, gal/VMT, and
                 gal/registered vehicle for each of the NY counties. Then calculate  average and
                 standard deviation for each. Any counties outside of 2 std deviations from the
                 mean  deserve to be investigated.

          10.     I like the inclusion of supporting materials with the writeup. I hope that the
                 plan is to submit this inventory with the documentation.

          11.     Add dates and document numbers  to the references, where appropriate.
                                FIGURE 3.3-2.  CONTINUED

the strengths as well as the weaknesses are described.  The reviewer is also very clear
about what he did and did not check.  This was a very thorough peer review; note the
suggestions for improving the presentation of the data (items 3  and 5).  This emphasizes
the importance of clear and thorough documentation for QA/QC.  Finally, the reviewer
makes recommendations on how to improve the estimates.
3.3-6                                                                          EIIP Volume VI

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 SAMPLE  CALCULATIONS
 QUICK REVIEW
       Definition:
       Objective:


       Optimal usage:


       Minimum expertise
       required:
       Advantages:
       Limitations:
Verification of values calculated using spreadsheets,
models, or hand calculations by replicating the
calculations by hand or electronically; a subset or
sample of each type of calculation is checked.
Ensure that calculations are done correctly,
minimizing mathematical and spreadsheet errors.
Should be used extensively and frequently as a QC
tool; also used as part of a technical audit.
Low to moderate. Replication of calculations can
be done by anyone capable of doing the work
(i.e., some expertise in inventory development
recommended).
(1) Most reliable way of detecting computational
errors, (2) can be done by anyone involved in
inventory development, and (3) does not require
expensive or complicated tools (only pen and
paper).
(1) Does not ensure that approach and assumptions
used are correct, and (2) is labor-intensive.
EIIP Volume VI
                                            3.4-1

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS                                                 6/12/97
4.1   OVERVIEW OF METHOD

Replication of calculations is one of the most basic quantitative QA/QC methods
available. It should be used by the author of the original calculations as a self-check, by
the person performing QC checks, and as part of any QA audit.

Self-checking using manual or electronic calculations is strongly encouraged when
spreadsheets are used to calculate values.  Each author should be encouraged to include
an example calculation replicating one complete set of calculations on his spreadsheet
or as an attachment to help facilitate the review of the technical approach and identify
errors.  If the original calculations are done by hand, replication by the author may still
be useful.

The most common usage of this method is by the person conducting the QC check.  The
preferred QC method is to replicate one complete set  of calculations from beginning to
end. In addition to verifying  the mathematical correctness of the calculation, the values
used should also be verified.  For example, use of the  correct emission factor should be
checked.  If the original calculations are in a spreadsheet, spot checks of the remaining
values  (assuming the same equations are being used repetitively) is sufficient. The
percentage of calculations that should be checked will  depend on several factors,
including:

       •     The  complexity of the calculations;

       •     The  DQOs for the inventory; and

       •     The  error  rate encountered.

The error rate is determined  during the QA/QC process. If a large number of errors is
being detected, the number of checks should be increased, although not necessarily on a
given version of the spreadsheet.  For example, during the initial check, several errors
may be found.  The person conducting the QC check may stop after working through
one set of calculations and send it back to the author for revision.  In the second review,
the original  calculation is rechecked and found to be correct.  The person conducting
the QC check then proceeds to check  another set of calculations; if no errors are found,
he or she may spot check a few more values before approving the calculations (see
Section 7, "Statistical Checks," for more discussion on statistical QC procedures).

The procedures for determining the number of calculations to be checked and the
number of iterations required before the calculations are approved are a function of the
DQOs  and should  be specified in the QA plan.  Ensuring that the specified QC
procedures are followed is the responsibility of the QA Coordinator.


3.4-2                                                                    EIIP Volume VI

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 6/12/97	CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS


 In addition to checking the arithmetic used, the proper conversion of all units should be
 verified. Units analysis may be done independently of the actual values.

 Replication of calculations by hand (e.g., using pen, paper, and calculator) is the
 preferred method for checking calculations originally performed by hand or in a
 spreadsheet. Spreadsheets can be used as an alternative; however, they are not
 preferred as a QA technique because they introduce the possibility of other errors
 unique to spreadsheets.  In certain situations, it may not be  feasible to replicate
 calculations; for example, if emissions are generated by a model, the algorithm may
 either be unknown to the user or too complex to repeat by hand. A check would be to
 attempt to approximate the result using an alternative method; this is  a more complex
 type of a reality check. Table 3.4-1 summarizes the preferred and  alternative methods.

                                   TABLE 3.4-1

          CALCULATION CHECKS: PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS
Method
Preferred
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Procedure
Hand
Hand
replication
replication
Hand calculation
approximate the
of one
complete
of most complex
using a
result.
different
set of calculations.
calculations.

method, attempting

to
 4.2  REPLICATION OF SPREADSHEET OR HAND CALCULATIONS

 Figure 3.4-1 A shows spreadsheet calculations of structure fire emissions for several
 counties.  Figure 3.4-1B shows the original hand-calculated QC checks of one county's
 emissions.  Note that the reviewer did not verify emissions of all counties; a reality
 check was used to check the others.  Depending on the DQOs for the inventory, this
 level of checking may be adequate, particularly if combined with a spreadsheet audit
 (see Section 5.2.4, "Spreadsheet Auditing Functions").

 4.3  REPLICATION  OF COMPLEX  CALCULATIONS

 When a model or other software program is used to calculate emissions, hand
 replication of each type of calculation performed is the preferred method.  However, if
EIIP Volume VI                                                                3.4.3

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CHAPTER 3 • QA/QC METHODS
     6/12/97
                               m o» o> ^

                             »- «•> V o o» «o ^ «>
                             » «> rt •» •» r-
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                             « « »- N K t     9
                           S2SSSSSSS
                               SOOOOOOCM
                               •o M M » w •«»
                               s s a s s s
         < o.
             FIGURE 3.4-1 A.  EXAMPLE SPREADSHEET CALCULATION
3.4-4
EIIP Volume VI

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6/12/97
                                                   CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
   StONATUM

   PROJECT..
                                 ITAJ"
                                            CHECKED
                                                            DATE.
                                                        OF
                                                                      EETS
           0
                  -Co •

                   t??^  t-L
                                                ,5000
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£0 Ihf
                                                                c-c
                                                                 / -
                                                     ..  ._.  ;
  FIGURE 3.4-1 B.  EXAMPLE OF HAND-CALCULATED CHECK OF SPREADSHEET RESULT

 EIIP Volume VI                                                              3.4-5

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS	                             6/12/97


the calculations are very complex or cannot be duplicated easily, an alternative approach
is to attempt to duplicate the result using an alternative calculation method.

The following example shows one approach to checking the calculations used in an
emissions estimation software program.  The Air Quality Utility Information System
(AQUIS) (U.S. Air Force, 1994; Smith et al.,  1995) is used by the U.S. Air Force, Air
Combat Command, to estimate air emissions at a single site.

Note that this type of check only confirms that the mathematical calculations are
performed as expected.  Any data that are supplied by the software (e.g., conversion
factors, emission factors) should also be verified and  input data need to be checked (see
Section 3, "Peer Review," Section 5, "Computerized Checks," and Section 8,
"Independent Audits").

Figure 3.4-2 shows a hand-calculated check of the AQUIS algorithm for industrial
reciprocating engine emissions (The original calculations were subsequently typed to
give a neater presentation for a report). The  input data used in both the program and
the hand calculation are  shown in Section I. The equation used by AQUIS (as reported
in the AQUIS Algorithm Manual) is shown in Section II. Sample calculations are
shown for three hazardous air pollutants and the results compared to the program
output (The third page, not shown, contains a list of all pollutants calculated by
AQUIS).

Although this level of checking  for a program can require a significant amount of time,
it is necessary.  Furthermore, given that these programs  are generally used many times
over, the effort required  to check the algorithms is relatively small.
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 6/12/97                                              CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
                             CALCULATION SHEET
                                                                CALC. NO. 2
   SIGNATURE     J. Scientist	DATE  6/30/94 CHECKED R. Peer  DATE 7/13/94
   PROJECT	Inventory Database QA	 JOB NO.	
   SUBJECT	Review of AQUIS Methodology	   SHEET 1  OF  3 SHEETS


                      INTERNAL COMBUSTION GENERATORS

   I.     Input Data:

         Type of Stationary Source = Industrial reciprocating engine
         Fuel = Diesel
         Rated Power = 201.2 hp
         Hourly Max Fuel Usage =  10.13 gal/hr
         Annual Average Fuel Usage = 1.6694 x 103 gal/yr
         Fuel Unit of Measure (fu)  = gal


   II.     Annual Emissions Calculation:

         AAUE = NPIE * HV * EF(P) * AU

         where:

                     AAUE =     Annual emissions from generators (Ib/yr)

                     NPIE  =     Number of identical pieces of equipment = 1

                     HV    =     Heating value of fuel  = 137 (103 Btu/fu)
                                 137 x 103Btu/gal

                     EF(P)  =     Emission factor for pollutant P (lb/106 Btu) for
                                 Type  2
                                 (from Table 3.2.1-4)

                     AU    =     Annual average quantity of fuel  (103 fu/yr)
                                 1.6694 x  103 gal/yr

        This is the Type 2 equation (one  of three types), where type is a function
   of engine design and pollutant.
   FIGURE 3.4-2. EXAMPLE HAND-CALCULATED CHECK OF DATABASE ALGORITHM

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
                                                        6/12/97
  SIGNATURE.
  PROJECT	
  SUBJECT
        B.
                            CALCULATION SHEET
 J. Scientist
 Inventory Database QA
                            CALC. NO..
 DATE 6/30/94 CHECKED R. Peer  DATE 7/13/94
	 JOB NO.	
 Review of AQUIS Methodology
                  SHEET 1  OF_3_SHEETS
              For 1,3-Butadiene:
              AAUE  =
            1  *  137 x 103 Btu/gal * 3.91 x 10'5 lb/106 Btu *
            1.6694x 103gal/yr
            8.94 x  10'3 Ib/yr 1,3-Butadiene
              AQUIS Printout: AAUE  = 0.009 Ib/yr 1,3-Butadiene
For Benzene:
              AAUE  =
            1  *  137 x 103 Btu/gal * 9.33 x 10'4 lb/106 Btu *
            1.6694x 103gal/yr
            0.213 Ib/yr Benzene
              AQUIS Printout: AAUE = 2.213 Ib/yr Benzene

              For Naphthalene:
              AAUE  =    1 * 137 x 103 Btu/gal * 8.48 x 10'6 lb/106 Btu *
                          1.6694x 103gal/yr
                          0.0194 Ib/yr Naphthalene
              AQUIS Printout: AAUE = 0.019 Ib/yr Naphthalene
                          FIGURE 3.4-2.  CONTINUED
3.4-8
                                                     EIIP Volume VI

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 COMPUTERIZED  CHECKS
 QUICK REVIEW
       Definition:
       Objective:

       Optimal usage:
       Minimum expertise
       required:

       Advantages:
       Limitations:
Electronic methods of checking or verifying data
or emissions; they may be a built-in function of an
emissions database, model, or spreadsheet, or they
may be stand-alone programs.
Ensure the accuracy or correctness of a value.

Generally used for QC at the point where data are
being entered into a computer software program
for further processing and/or after emissions have
been calculated.  Frequency and timing of use
depend mostly on the specific technology.
Low to moderate, depending on the specific
tool/method.

(1) Built-in checks can be done with little
additional effort and the  need for  more laborious
manual reviews may be eliminated, (2) they allow
efficient checking of large amounts of data, and
(3) certain software features  prevent or minimize
some types of errors.
(1) Requires some level of human decision-making
(such as determining whether a variable that is
outside a range is really an error), (2) some
programs-particularly stand-alone programs--
require additional training or expertise to use
properly, (3) all require a computer, (4) too much
reliance may be placed on the computer's ability
to detect errors, resulting in too little QA/QC by
humans, and (5) cannot catch erroneous values
that pass range/limits checks.
£UP Volume VI
                                              3.5-1

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS                                                6/12/97
5.1  OVERVIEW OF METHOD

Automated checks cover a wide array of computer-based QA/QC functions. They
include:  (1) common features found in most database programs or models that ensure
against entering characters where numbers are expected, (2) range checks that give an
expected minimum and maximum for a specific variable, and (3) look-up tables that
define permissible entries,  and The user is given a message or printed report to
document the potential problem. Some computer programs provide users with visual
written QA/QC tools. Spreadsheet audit functions, for example, can map cell
references and formulas visually in report format.  Other computer programs are
designed to display data visually through maps, charts, or graphics. These features vary
in their implementation between computer programs; it is important that the user
understand how they work and  then use these features correctly.

Unlike the methods described in previous sections of this chapter, the inventory
preparers may have very little choice in selecting automated checks because the
emissions estimation system may already have been chosen (or may be outside their
control).  However, the automated checks described in this section do not provide any
new functions; they are automated, efficient ways to screen, summarize, and/or present
data for "Peer Review" (Section 3) or "Independent Audits" (Section 8). This section
describes some of the general QA/QC functions used in emissions estimation software,
such as:

      •     Features of spreadsheets that can be used to facilitate QA/QC; and

      •     Some stand-alone software programs that can be used in QA/QC tools.

The computer-literate inventory preparer is encouraged to develop his/her own
automated QA/QC programs using the ideas presented here.

Automated QA/QC functions can be used to facilitate peer review or, in some cases,
replace manual reality checks.  Because large amounts of data can be processed very
quickly, these computer-based methods can significantly reduce the amount of time
required both to develop and quality assure an inventory.  In addition, some of the data
entry features used in computer-based estimation software that were designed primarily
to simplify data entry also help  reduce the number of potential errors.  By reducing the
amount of information that has to be entered manually, the number of typographical
errors is reduced.  Furthermore, some programs select the correct emission factor (or
other  defaults needed to estimate emissions) based on one or more parameters provided
by the user.  Although they may not eliminate errors, these automated procedures can
help reduce the use of incorrect data.
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 It is important to note that these reports do not actually perform QA functions.
 Reports that are designed to highlight outliers or suspect data do just that-highlight
 suspect data. Similarly, reports that display information only display information as
 requested.  Human reasoning and judgment must still be applied when reviewing the
 reports and  evaluating them for errors.  The preferred method for emissions estimation
 and performance of many types of QA/QC checks  is to use emissions-estimation
 software with built-in QA/QC functions and data entry procedures that minimize errors.
 If that is not feasible, the second-best method is to develop standardized spreadsheets or
 databases using standard software packages, building in as many QA features as
 possible.  Most popular spreadsheet and database packages support the use of look-up
 tables and provide auditing tools that can be used for QA/QC.  Portions of the
 spreadsheet  or database file can be locked or protected to prevent  inadvertent changes.

 Because the programmer is often not the end user, it is highly recommended that the
 end user be  involved in developing the program and its output features.  Involving the
 user will help maximize the usefulness of the  program and make it more user friendly.

 Emissions-estimation software  or spreadsheet/database programs can be supplemented
 using stand-alone programs to  check  or review the  data.  Some programs provide range
 checks on data, generating reports that flag potential problems.  Emissions estimates can
 be further verified by using data visualization programs.  These software programs are
 capable of transferring emissions data from spreadsheet/database format to visual tools
 such as points on a map, charts, and  tables.

 Table 3.5-1 summarizes the methods  and functions  described in this section.  Preferred
 and alternative methods were not defined for this group of tools because the technology
 available to  different agencies varies.

 As valuable  as these automated tools are, they do have some limitations, such as
 creating a false sense of confidence in the data. It  is usually necessary for a reviewer to
 make a judgment about the data quality by reviewing the computer-generated reports or
 error messages and deciding which  potential errors  need to be corrected.  Also, even if
 the  value for a particular parameter is within a reasonable range, it can still be wrong.
 Therefore, these automated tools are not a substitute for peer reviews or audits; rather,
 they should be used to facilitate other QA/QC activities.

 Most emissions-estimation software offers built-in functions designed to prevent the
 introduction  of faulty data into the emissions calculation.  Functions such as range and
 data-type checks  are QA functions that flag potential errors.  Other features are indirect
 forms of QA in that they reduce the amount of data that must be entered or limit the
 options.  These features include look-up tables and  pull-down menus where the user
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/I
                                                             TABLE  3.5-1
                                           SUMMARY OF COMMON AUTOMATED CHECKS
rt
I
           Type of
       Automated Check
      Variable type
      check
      Range (value)
      checks
      Look-up table
      Pull-down menu,
      pop-up window
      Completeness/
      Consistency checks
      Description
Alerts user if wrong
data type or
inappropriate value is
entered.
Checks value entered to
determine if it is within
an expected or
acceptable range.
Uses a parameter (such
as user-supplied input
variable) to select other
appropriate parameters
from a table.
Presents selection of
possible values for a
particular field.
These two terms are
often used to describe
similar operations;
include a wide array of
checks and/or
comparisons.
             Examples
Numeric value is expected, character
string entered: a warning is issued
immediately or field is flagged in
subsequent report.
Range of stack heights is used to flag
a stack height that is too high or low.
User enters a source category code
(SCC) and program supplies
appropriate emission factor.
List of possible fuel types is presented
to user when entering data to
calculate boiler emissions.
Checks verify that some specified
amount of data for certain fields has
been entered; or, if a certain field has
data, verifies that other required fields
also have data.
Assure that units, equipment types,
IDs, and other parameters are
consistent.
             Strengths/Limitations
Reduces errors early in process, especially if
warning issued interactively and/or if incorrect
data entry prohibited.
Report in which error is flagged is easily ignored.
Flags suspicious data for further review.
Does not eliminate possibility that wrong value
entered is within range, or that value outside
range could still be correct.
Eliminates some types of data entry errors;
assures data consistency.
If wrong value added (i.e., incorrect SCC), all
dependent values will also be wrong.
Eliminates transcription errors, reduces chance of
using wrong value due to user not understanding
what is wanted.
Does not eliminate possibility that wrong choice
will be made by user.
Completeness is often difficult to quantify; in
practice, a minimum expected value is used to
determine completeness.
Does not assure that data are correct.
Impossible to completely automate these types of
checks, some expert judgment usually required.
If too much  consistency automated into process,
inflexibility may result.
                                                                                                                   1
                                                                                                                   tJ
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&
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6/12/97                                                  CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 must choose from a limited but inclusive list of options.  Although not necessarily meant
 as a QA tool, these features can help minimize several types of data-entry errors.

 5.1.1  RANGE AND CHARACTER CHECKS

 Data-type checks prohibit the user from entering text strings when numerical values are
 expected and vice versa. In most  cases, data-type and range checks are no more than an
 automated reality check. Range checks provide an indication that the value is (or is
 not) within  an expected range.  However, these checks do not necessarily ensure that
 the value is correct. Also,  range checks may warn the user of a potential problem, but
 do not usually prevent entry of incorrect data.

 Numerical range checks generally fall into one of two categories: (1) the upper and/or
 lower limit  is specified, or  (2) the statistical mean or median is used as a point of
 reference.  In the first case, as long as the input value falls within (or above or below)
 the limit, no error is flagged.  Setting this limit is difficult; assuming an upper bound is
 used, if it is set too high, no potential errors are flagged. If set too low,  too many data
 points are flagged. The use of statistically derived reference values raises similar
 questions (see Section 7, "Statistical Checks," of this chapter).

 A common  frustration that many inventory preparers  have with automated QA checks
 that use an  average (or default) value as a reference point is that correct, site-specific
 data are often either higher or lower than a statistical average or default. This flagging
 of correct but atypical values should not be  viewed  as a problem with the system; rather,
 it provides the opportunity to  review and  explain the data.  The perceived quality of the
 inventory to the user or reviewer is increased by this sort of analysis, even though the
 real quality  is unchanged. In other words, confidence in  the emission estimates has
 increased.

 5.1.2  LOOK-UP TABLES

 Look-up tables are another feature of many computer programs.  They help ensure data
 quality by restricting the number of choices  a user has to make. A look-up table  uses
 one variable (entered by the user) to look up the correct value for another variable.

 For example, some computerized emissions  calculation programs supply the correct
 emission factor by matching it to a source category  code  (SCC). One approach is to
 retrieve the correct emission factor based on an SCC  entered by the user. Although this
 ensures a correct match between the code and the factor, if the user enters the incorrect
 code, the emissions will be calculated with the wrong  number.  Therefore, look-up tables
 are not always foolproof.
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS                                                6/12/97
Other systems minimize this type of error by building more safeguards into the system.
The AQUIS used by the U.S. Air Force, Air Combat Command, has separate modules
for each source type.  To calculate boiler emissions, for example, the user enters the
boiler characteristics, fuel use, and fuel type in the "External Combustion" module.  The
program uses this information to select the correct emission factor. The possibility of
error still exists because incorrect boiler data could result in the selection of an
incorrect emission factor; however, it is less likely to  occur than when the additional
step of supplying the correct SCC is required.

Still other systems allow the user to set up the relationships in the look-up table.  This
approach is used in some commercial emissions database software. Access to these
tables is limited to a system administrator who can assign codes, emission factors, and
specify other interrelationships between data to be entered  in the system. Usually these
software packages allow the user to enter alternative emission factors, conversion
factors, or constants.  The inventory developer using  this type of software should take
advantage of these features to build in QA/QC features.

5.1.3  PULL-DOWN MENUS AND POP-UP WINDOWS

Another error-limiting feature is the pull-down menu or pop-up window. This feature is
activated when the user selects a field to enter data.  The menu/window will  appear and
offer a limited set of allowable entries.

5.2  INTERNAL  CHECKS AND  REPORTS:  CEIDARS, RAPIDS,
      STANDARDIZED SPREADSHEETS

After the data for performing the emissions calculations have been entered, many
programs have internal QC programs designed to highlight suspect information for
further evaluation.  These programs are a form of "reality check," but are capable of
processing larger volumes of data than a human reviewer, automatically flagging
input/output that falls outside the expected parameters. However, the flagged data
must be reviewed by a human to determine whether  an error  has really occurred.
Software packages, such as the Regional Air Pollutant Inventory Development System
(RAPIDS) and California Emissions Inventory Database Acquisition Retrieval System
(CEIDARS) contain built-in checks and reports designed  to evaluate data and present
potential errors or highlight important information.  Other software packages may allow
the user to design a QC report that prints key variables. Depending on the flexibility of
the software, the user may be able to design QA reports that  perform some of the same
functions as described below for CEIDARS and RAPIDS.
3.5-6                                                                 EIIP Volume VI

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 6/12/97                                                  CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 5.2.1  CEIDARS

 The California Air Resources Board (ARE) uses an Oracle®-based relational database
 system to compile and maintain toxic and criteria air pollutant inventories. This system,
 CEIDARS, also provides many built-in QA functions that are used by the state agency
 to review data entered at the district level (California is divided into multiple air
 districts each with its own staff responsible for developing inventories and performing
 other functions). These data have presumably undergone QA/QC checks prior to
 submittal to the district, and reviewed  at the  district level prior to entry into CEIDARS
 (see Chapter 2 of this volume,  Planning and Documentation for a description of the
 ARB's QA procedures designed to use these reports).

 Eleven different QA reports are provided in  CEIDARS;  the differences between them
 are defined partly by the QA features  and partly by the category type or level (e.g., area,
 point, stack).

 To ensure the integrity and completeness of the criteria pollutant data, the CEIDARS
 QA reports are designed to help identify errors, inconsistencies,  or omissions in the
 criteria pollutant inventory data input  to the  database.  The QA reports verify that all
 critical data fields for each facility are  entered into the database, and that various data
 consistency and range-checking criteria are met.  The QA reports are not for general
 data (emissions) reporting.

 Some CEIDARS reports perform integrity checks on data entered by the user
 (QAFACC, QASTKC, QACEVE, QAPROC).  Other reports check key field data
 (QAKEYS), or the consistency of emissions data with reported process rates and
 emission factors (QAKEMS). QA reports also perform validity and range checking of
 various data including stack (QASTACK) and temporal (QATEMP) information.

 Completeness Checks

 Four different reports perform  some completeness checks at the facility, stack, device,
 and process levels.  The facility-level report verifies that at least  one emissions record is
 reported for each facility. If a  record is flagged, the reason for the lack of emissions is
 investigated. If emissions were reported but not entered, the district must resolve the
 error.  However, if no facility emissions were reported (by the facility operator), the
 record may either be dropped or retained (for tracking).  Similar reports flag stacks,
 devices, and processes that do not have any reported emissions.  As with the facility QA
 report, the reviewer must determine if the omission is truly an error.
EIIP Volume VI                                                                   3.5-7

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS                                                 6/12/97
 Consistency/Validity Checks

 Several QA reports are designed to flag inconsistent, invalid, or missing data.  One
 report checks to ensure that key data are present and consistent.  For example, if a
 device has not been defined for a process, the error message "DEVICE NUMBER IS
 MISSING OR INCONSISTENT1  is given. The items checked include county
 identification (ID) and name; device ID; facility ID, name, and Standard Industrial
 Classification (SIC) code; pollutant ID and name; process ID, SCC, and SIC codes; and
 stack ID.

 A similar type of data check is performed on process and emissions data to verify that
 they are valid and consistent. For example, an error is flagged  if an invalid emissions
 estimation code is used. If emissions are reported when the process rate is zero, an
 error is flagged.  The validity of the reported emissions  is checked by comparing it to a
 calculated value  (i.e., process rate times an emission factor); if the two values are not
 within 10  percent of each other, the record is flagged. The items checked include
 emissions, fraction particulate matter (PM), district-specified reactive organic gas
 (ROG), PM less than or equal to  10 //m (PMi0), fraction ROG, process rate, and sulfur
 content.

 Stack data validity is checked and verified to be within expected ranges by another set
 of QA checks. For example, if the stack temperature is less than 50°F or greater than
 2000°F, an error is flagged. If the flow  rate reported for the stack does not equal a
 computed theoretical flow rate (±10 percent), an error is flagged.  Stack parameters
 checked include gas flow, gas temperature, gas velocity,  stack diameter, stack height, and
 universal transverse mercator (UTM) coordinates.

 Other reports verify the spatial and temporal data, device and process data, and control
 device data. The spatial and temporal parameters checked include days per
week/weekly operating cycle, hours per day/daily operating cycle, and operating weeks
per year.  The device and process  data reported are device ID,  equipment size,
 equipment type code, equipment size unit code, maximum design rate, process rate, and
process description.

 5.2.2 RAPIDS

RAPIDS is a database management system developed specifically for compiling and
maintaining state  toxic emissions data into a central regional repository.  States using
this system have available many QA/QC functions in RAPIDS that should be used prior
to submitting their toxic emissions data  and estimates  into the regional repository. The
objective of these QC checks is to ensure that the regional database of emissions data
3.5-8                                                                   EIIP Volume VI

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 6/12/97                                                  CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 and estimates is as complete as practicable and is properly QA checked.  Below is a list
 of the QC checks performed by RAPIDS:

       •     Data integrity checks: Ensure that no invalid relationships among data
             elements exist (e.g., no process without a device, device without a facility,
             material activity without a material).

       •     Field-specific checks: Ensure that obviously invalid data are not entered
             into the database [e.g., SIC code, SCC/Area and Mobile  Source  Subsystem
             (AMS) Codes, speciation factor (>0.0 to <1.0), data relationships, etc.].

       •     Record-specific checks:  Identify  a valid relationship between two values in
             different fields in the same record (e.g.,  installation date is earlier than the
             dismantling date of a facility or device, start date/time in an activity
             record is earlier than the current date).

       •     Cross-entity checks:  Identify invalid relationships between data in two
             different entities (i.e., data elements).

       •     Completeness checks: Refer to the extent to which all sources/devices/
             processes and emittants are accounted for in the inventory database.

       •     Consistency and reasonableness checks: Consistency refers to the  extent
             that emissions data and estimates do not significantly vary among similar
             occurrences of the same area, source, device, process, stream, etc.
             Reasonableness refers to the extent  that emissions data meet certain
             expectations  based on experience.

 The last two types of QC checks identify possible errors and require manual
 investigation to determine  if an error really exists  and how to correct it. Completeness
 or consistency and reasonableness QC checks do not lend themselves to inclusion as
 fully automated checks; rather, they require the user to generate reports or other
 outputs from general purpose software  to identify  possible errors in the data.

 5.2.3  STANDARDIZED SPREADSHEETS/DATABASES

 If emissions are to be calculated using spreadsheet or  database software, many of the
 QA/QC features available in emissions-estimation software can be built into
 standardized spreadsheets or simple database  programs. The additional effort  required
 should pay off if the inventory is large,  if it may be repeated  or updated periodically, or
 if data entry may be performed by more than one person.
EIIP Volume VI                                                                    3.5-9

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS                                                 6/12/97
Area Source Inventory Spreadsheet Example

Standardized spreadsheets were developed and used to prepare an area source Level 4
inventory of air toxics in the Puget Sound region.  The inventory preparation plan
specifies the methods, factors, and speciation profiles used on the spreadsheet.  All
inventory personnel had a copy of the plan.

Figure 3.5-1 shows the spreadsheet developed for calculating graphics arts hazardous air
pollutants (HAPs).  It is one of many spreadsheets used to calculate area source HAP
emissions for an urban area. The basic spreadsheets were developed by one person; the
cells for activity data and any other user-defined parameters were left blank (shown in
italics in Figure 3.5-1). The source-specific VOC emission factors and HAP speciation
profiles were included in the spreadsheet.  The user (i.e.,  the person calculating
emissions for a category) entered  the needed data and emissions were automatically
calculated.  A look-up function uses the HAP code to find the weight percentage (shown
in the last table in the spreadsheet) used to estimate the HAPs value.

If spreadsheets must be used for inventory estimates, developing standardized
spreadsheets has several advantages for QC. The spreadsheets (without activity  data)
can undergo QA/QC checks before emissions are calculated and all cells except those
needed for data input can be locked (or protected).  This will ensure that changes  to the
data are not made inadvertently.  Final QA of the estimates is simplified because only
activity data (and any other user-supplied data) need to be reviewed.  This method may
help eliminate a "QA bottleneck"  at the end of the project by dividing the review into
several  segments.

Another advantage of this system  is that the emissions were easily imported into a
database for summation and reporting. The format  of the spreadsheets was designed so
that the emissions were always in  a block and in the same pollutant (rows) and county
(columns) order.  This makes import of the results into a summary  spreadsheet or  a
database program relatively simple. Also, it minimizes the chance of errors in data
transfer and compilation.

Point Source Inventory Spreadsheet Example

The North  Carolina Department of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources (NC
DEHNR) has developed standardized spreadsheets for some types of emissions sources
that are currently permitted. These spreadsheets are available to facilities that are
preparing permit  applications or annual emissions inventories (for fee assessments).  An
example of one of these spreadsheets is shown in Figure 3.5-2.  This spreadsheet uses
cell protection so that the user cannot change emission factors or other  crucial data.
Look-up functions are used to select the correct emission factor and to  calculate
3.5-10                                                                 EIIP Volume VI

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Created by: M. Adams
Date: 11/03/94
Purpose: Calculate HAPs from graphic
SOURCE CATEGORY:
AMS Code
County
Zone 1 population
Zone 2 population
Total population, Zones 1 & 2
VOC emission factor, Ib/capita
Adjustments (if none, enter 1)
VOC emissions (pounds)

HAP NAME
Xylene
Toluene
Glycol ethers
Methyl ethyl ketone
Ethylbenzene
Ethylene glycol butyl ether
Diethylene glycol butyl ether
Other diethylene glycol ethers
Propylene glycol methyl ether acetate
Ethylene glycol ethyl ether acetate
Other glycol ethers and esters
Glycols (unsubstituted)


Data entry by:
Date:
arts in Ozoneville using EPA
Graphic Arts
2425000000







HAP
CODE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
County Total



VOC per capita


County A
1,364,576
142,743
1,507,319
1.3
1
1,959,515


189,955
229,812
346,834
70,543
12,169
109,733
92,097
74,462
21,555
13,717
35,271
35,271
1,231,418

QCby:
Date:



methods and speciation profiles.


County B
510,524
75,679
586,203
1.3
1
762,064



County C
368,416
97,226
465,642
1.3
1
605,335

HAP Emissions (pounds/year)
73,874
89,375
134,885
27,434
4,732
42,676
35,817
28,958
8,383
5,334
13,717
13,717
478,904
58,681
70,994
107,144
21,792
3,759
33,899
28,451
23,003
6,659
4,237
10,896
10,896
380,410




























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SPECIATION PROFILES
WEIGHT PERCENT OF VOC
VAPORS
HAP HAP CODE Graphic Arts
Xylene 1 9.69%
Toluene 2 11.73%
Glycol ethers 3 17.70%
Methyl ethyl ketone 4 3.60%
Ethylbenzene 5 0.62%
Ethylene glycol butyl ether 6 5.60%
Diethylene glycol butyl ether 7 4.70%
Other diethylene glycol ethers 8 3.80%
Propylene glycol methyl ether acetate 9 1.10%
Ethylene glycol ethyl ether acetate 10 0.70%
Other glycol ethers and esters 1 1 1 .80%
Glycols (unsubstituted) 12 1.80%























CHAPTER 3
1
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6/12/97
CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS

Natural Gas Combustion: Criteria and Toxic Air Pollutant Emissions Central Office Version
NAME OF FACILITY: No Name Co. APP
CITY: Rocky Mount Review Engineer R. Person
COUNTY: Nash
Boiler Input Data
BOILER TYPE > 2
1 - LARGE BOILER > 100 mmBtu/hr
2 • SMALL BOILER 10 - 100 mmBtu/hr
3 - COMMERCIAL < 10 mmBtu/hr
ACTUAL NG BURNED : 35.00
FOR POTENTIAL :
ENTER BOILER SIZE : 25
HOURS OF OPERATION : 8,760
ENTER % CONTROL EFF. : 0.00
ACTUAL CRITERIA EMISSIONS
Factor
Pollutant (Ib poll./1 E6 cu. ft burned)
TSP 13.7
PM-10 13.7
SOx 0.6
NOx 140.0
VOCs 2.8
CO 35.0
mm cu. ft/yr
.0503 PM Allowable
0.47 Ib/mmBtu
mmBtu/hr 1 1 .9 Ib/hr @ max. input
hr/yr .0516 SO2 Allowable
% 58 Ib/hr @ max. input

Emission Rates
(Ib/yr) (tb/hr) (tpy)
480 0.05 0.24
480 0.05 0.24
21 0.00 0.01
4,900 0.56 2.45
97 0.01 0.05
1,225 0.14 0.61
ACTUAL TOXIC EMISSIONS
Factor
Pollutant (Ib poll./1E12 Btu)
FORMALDEHYDE 220.3
Emission Rates
(Ib/yr) (Ib/hr) (tpy)
7.9 9.07E-04 0.004
Potential NG usage : 214 mm cu. ft/yr 24,379 cu «t/hr
Heating value : 1,030 Btu/cu. ft
NOTES: ASSUMPTIONS:
FACTOR #1 - AP-42, SUPPLEMENT F (7/93), SEC 1.3 - TSP, PM10, AND POM ARE AFFECTED BY CONTROL
FACTOR #2 - EPA 450/2-90-01 1 - HEAT CONTENT OF NG 1030 Btu/cu.ft
VOCS = TOC*(1-%METHANE)
Disclaimer
"This spreadsheet is for your use only and should be used with caution. DEHNR does not guarantee the accuracy of the information
contained. This is a draft spreadsheet and is continually revised and updated. It is your responsibility to be aware of the most current
information available. DEHNR is not responsible for errors or omissions that may be contained herein."
   FIGURE 3.5-2. EXAMPLE OF STANDARDIZED SPREADSHEET FOR POINT SOURCE
                           ACTUAL EMISSIONS
EIIP Volume VI
                  3.5-13

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS                                                 6/12/97
emissions.  If the user wishes to calculate potential emissions, the "ACTUAL NG
BURNED" box is left blank; the spreadsheet then uses the data shown under "FOR
POTENTIAL" to calculate potential emissions. An example is shown in Figure 3.5-3.

This spreadsheet illustrates some other good QA features.  The sources of the factors
and the assumptions used are shown in the "NOTES" near the bottom of the page. This
spreadsheet does not show a version number (or date created/revised), but some other
DEHNR spreadsheets do. Some sort of document control system that uses identifiers,
dates, and/or authorship to track different versions of spreadsheets is a good idea,
especially when they are distributed widely.

5.2.4  SPREADSHEET AUDITING FUNCTIONS

For emissions that are calculated by spreadsheet applications, audit functions built into
most spreadsheet software provide the user and checker with a helpful tool for verifying
formula calculations and cell references.  Although many spreadsheets have their own
specific auditing functions, some of the more common audit options include cell
dependency, cell precedence, and error identification. Although these are  three
different functions, they all share one important characteristic: they help the user
identify which cells  are referenced in spreadsheet formulas.

Figure 3.5-4 is an example of Excel tracing cell precedents. By highlighting a cell with a
formula in it and selecting the tools \ audit \ cell precedents function, Excel displays on-
screen arrows that point to the cells used in the calculation, allowing an auditor to
quickly and easily verify formulas and calculations. The Lotus audit function operates in
a similar fashion by highlighting all cells  used in formula calculations.

Both Excel and Lotus provide the user with the ability to generate a  description of cells
involved in a calculation. Figure 3.5-5 illustrates the "report" generated by Lotus when a
cell is selected and the audit\trace dependents function is activated.

5.3   STAND-ALONE PROGRAMS

Additional QA/QC functions are available through the use of stand-alone  programs
developed primarily for this purpose.  These include  programs with the same types of
features as those described above, as well as graphical and mapping systems that can be
used to perform visual auditing of data.

5.3.1   EIQA

Emission Inventory  Quality Assurance (EIQA) is a software program specifically
designed to provide QA/QC capabilities. EIQA provides an automated means of

3.5-14                                                                  EIIP Volume VI

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6/12/97
CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
Natural Gas Combustion: Criteria and Toxic Air Pollutant Emissions
NAME OF FACILITY: No Name Co.
CITY: Rocky Mount
COUNTY: Nash
Boiler Input Data
BOILER TYPE > 2
1 - LARGE BOILER > 100 mmBtu/hr
2 - SMALL BOILER 10-100 mmBtu/hr
3 - COMMERCIAL < 10 mmBtu/hr
ACTUAL NG BURNED : mm cu. ft/yr
FOR POTENTIAL :
ENTER BOILER SIZE : 25 mmBtu/hr
HOURS OF OPERATION : 8,760 hr/yr
ENTER % CONTROL EFF. : 0.00 %
POTENTIAL CRITERIA EMISSIONS
Factor
Pollutant (Ib poll./1E6cu. ft burned) (Ib/yr)
TSP 13.7 2,926
PM-10 13.7 2,926
SOx 0.6 128
NOx 140.0 29,898
VOCs 2.8 595
CO 35.0 7,474
POTENTIAL TOXIC EMISSIONS
Factor
Pollutant (lbpoll./1E12Btu) (Ib/yr)
FORMALDEHYDE 220.3 48.5
Central Office Version
APP
Review Engineer R. Person

.0503 PM Allowable
0.47 Ib/mmBtu
1 1 .9 Ib/hr @ max. input
.0516 SO2 Allowable
58 Ib/hr @ max. input

Emission Rates
(Ib/hr) (tpy)
0.33 1.46
0.33 1.46
0.01 0.06
3.41 14.95
0.07 0.30
0.85 3.74

Emission Rates
(Ib/hr) (tpy)
5.53E-03 0.024

Potential NG usage : 214 mm cu. ft/yr 24,379 cu. ft/hr
Heating value : 1,030 Btu/cu. ft
NOTES: ASSUMPTIONS:
FACTOR #1 - AP-42, SUPPLEMENT F (7/93), SEC 1.3 - TSP, PM10, AND POM ARE AFFECTED BY CONTROL
FACTOR #2 - EPA 450/2-90-01 1 - HEAT CONTENT OF NG 1030 Btu/cu.ft
VOCS = TOC*(1-%METHANE)
Disclaimer
'This spreadsheet is for your use only and should be used with caution. DEHNR does not guarantee the accuracy of the Information
contained. This is a draft spreadsheet and is continually revised and updated. It Is your responsibility to be aware of the most current
information available. DEHNR is not responsible for errors or omissions that may be contained herein."
       FIGURE 3.5-3.  POINT SOURCE SPREADSHEET TOGGLED TO PRODUCE
                           POTENTIAL EMISSIONS
EIIP Volume VI
                  3.5-15

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
                                                                      6/12/97
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                                AUDIT FUNCTION
 3.5-16
                                                                     EIIP Volume VI

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 6/12/97
CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS








































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31
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34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
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64
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Current file
A:C38: 'Benzene
A:F22: 'Benzene
A:F23: 'Biphenyl
A:F24: 'Hexane, n-
A:F25: 'Naphthalene
A:F26: 'Toluene
A:F27: 'Xylene, M-
A:F28: 'Xylene, o-
A:F29: 'Xylene, p-
A:G22: 0.5
A:G23: "-
A:G24: 2.21
A:G25: 0.5
A:G26: 1.33
A:G27: 0.96
A.-G28: 1.01

C D

E

F G
actual Emissions from POL Equipment Leaks
Regulated Emissions
Pollutant 
-------
 6/12/97                                                CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 performing QA edit checks on critical data elements in the emissions inventories
 submitted by the states to the EPA's Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS);
 it has also been adapted for use on non-AIRS data.  The EIQA program is available for
 general use on EPA's mainframe computer; however, user support is not provided by
 the EPA.  Reports can be generated that examine the data for point, area, and mobile
 sources, and MOBILE model input data. By providing the user with an automated
 checking and reporting system, the net result should be significantly improved quality of
 the emissions inventory data stored in AIRS. A sample of QA  reports generated by
 EIQA for point, area, and mobile source data are listed below.

 Point source data QA reports include:

       •     Range Checks [compares inputs on an SCC-basis to a range of expected
             values from 1985 National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program
             (NAPAP) inventory];

       •     Consistency Checks (ensures that certain data elements are correct);

       •     Report Emission by Miscellaneous SCC Summary [shows emission totals
             by the SCC that are "miscellaneous" source types of VOCs, NOX, and
             carbon monoxide (CO)];

       •     Report Emission by Method Code Summary (reflects the percentage of
             the total emissions for a pollutant that was obtained by a certain method);

       •     Report Emission by Source Magnitude Summary (indicates the magnitude
             of source in the inventory region);

       •     Report Source Category Completeness Summary (highlights where
             "expected" data are missing);

       •     Report Rule Effectiveness  Category Summary (reports on the existence of
             rule-effectiveness estimates in the AIRS Facility Subsystem (AFS) for
             selected SIC/SCC combinations that are expected to have  rule-
             effectiveness estimates); and

       •     Report Plants Exceeding 500 Tons Per Year (tpy) Summary [indicates the
            plants exceeding 500 tpy per pollutant listed (classified by pollutant)].

 Figure 3.5-6 shows an example of a source category completeness summary.
EIIP Volume VI                                                                3.5-19

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
     6/12/97
                          EMISSION INVENTORY QUALITY ASSURANCE SYSTEM
                                        POINT SOURCES
                        SOURCE CATEGORY COMPLETENESS SUMMARY REPORT F

    BASE YEAR: 1990 SIP PROGRAM: OZONE STATUS AREA CODE: N0200  DATE REPORT GENERATED: 07JUL94

                                DEFINITION OF REPORT F:
                                These source categories and ranges are expected in most
                                nonattainment areas as listed in EPA's Quality Review Guidelines.
                                An "N" in the "PRESENT" column may indicate and incomplete inventory.

                                PRIORITY RANKING SCHEME:
                                1 = High Priority         - Resolution/Determination Required
                                2 = Warning/Advisory     - No Formal Action Required
                                3 - Informative         - See Text for Further Description


                          EMISSION INVENTORY QUALITY ASSURANCE SYSTEM
                                        POINT SOURCES
                        SOURCE CATEGORY COMPLETENESS SUMMARY REPORT F

    BASE YEAR: 1990 SIP PROGRAM: OZONE STATUS AREA CODE: N0200  DATE REPORT GENERATED: 07JUL94
                                      Priority 1:  High Priority
Exception
Resolution
	
	
	
	
	

_
	
—
—
sec
4-05-xxx-xx
1 -03-xxx-xx
1-03-xxx-xx
4-04-xxx-xx
4-06-xxx-xx
3-xx-xxx-xx
1 -02-xxx-xx
1 -02-xxx-xx
1-01-xxx-xx
1-01-xxx-xx
Source Category Name
Graphic Arts
Commercial Boilers
Commercial Boilers
Petroleum Storage
Petroleum Market & Transport
Industrial Processes
Industrial Boilers
Industrial Boilers
Utility Boilers
Utility Boilers
Emission
Magnitude Range
10-25 tpy
10-25 tpy
10-25 tpy
>25 tpy
>25 tpy
all ranges
all ranges
all ranges
all ranges
all ranges
Pollutant
VOC
NO,
CO
VOC
VOC
all
NO.
CO
NO,
CO
Present
N
N
Y
N
N
Y
Y
Y
N
N
            FIGURE  3.5-6.  EIQA POINT SOURCES COMPLETENESS REPORT
3.5-20
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 6/12/97                                                 CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 Area source data QA reports include:

       •      Activity Level Unit Range Check Exceptions (the AMS database includes
              acceptable SCC-specific activity levels; these data are used to check the
              reported activity level units in the inventory);

       •      Fuel Loading Factor Range Check Exceptions (the minimum and
              maximum fuel loading factors, as found in the EPA document,
              Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors Volume I:  Stationary Point
              and Area Sources, commonly referred to as AP-42, are used to identify the
              inventory's outliers);

       •      Base Year Factor Range Check Exceptions (reports records in which the
              base year does not equal the designated year, 1990);

       •      Annual Emissions Range Check Exceptions (the EPA document, Quality
              Review Guidelines for 1990 Base Year Emission Inventories, defines
              per capita range checks for area source emission categories; the program
              uses these ranges to identify SCCs that are apparently under- or over-
              reported);

       •      SIP Rule in Place Consistency Check  (identifies area sources that may be
              covered under SIP rules);

       •      Pollutant Consistency Check Exceptions (checks for  pollutants not
              reported for certain SCC codes);

       •      Gasoline Consumption Consistency Check Exceptions [compares gasoline
              consumption to population estimates and expected state-level  Department
              of Energy (DOE) gasoline consumption estimates];

       •      Population Consistency  Check  Exceptions (highlights large population
              changes);

       •      Emission Factor Units Consistency Check Exceptions (highlights where
              factor units are not what were  expected);

       •      SCC Consistency Check Exceptions (highlights potentially missing SCCs);
              and

       •     Annual Emission Consistency Check Exceptions (highlights large changes
             in emissions from prior levels).
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS     	  6/12/97


An example of an area source report (SIP Rule in Place Consistency Check) is shown in
Figure 3.5-7.

Mobile source data QA reports include:

       •      Range Check Exception Report (expected values for specified vehicles);

       •      Period Consistency  Check Exception Report (checks are designed to
             ensure internal consistency of source data);

       •      VMT Consistency Check Exception Report (checks reported VMTs
             against expected values);

       •      Data Item Completeness Exception Report (checks for amount of road
             type, expected pollutant levels, etc.);

       •      SCC, VMT, and Emissions Summary Report (assists user in performing
             manual examination of inventory data);

       •      VMT and Emissions Summary Report (assists user in performing manual
             examination of inventory data); and

       •      Emission Factors Summary Report (provides summary tables for total or
             time-of-day emission factors).

MOBILE  model input data QA reports include:

       •      Geographic Consistency Exception Report (checks status of Inspection and
             Maintenance (I/M) programs,  Anti-tampering Programs (ATP),
             oxygenated fuels in  input files);

       •      I/M and ATP Control Program Consistency Exception Report (checks
             I/M and anti-tampering flag parameters);

       •      I/M and ATP Program Characteristic Range Check Exception (checks
             I/M, anti-tampering and fuel-related characteristics against expected
             values);

       •      Scenario Range Check Exception Report (checks model scenario inputs
             against expected values);
3.5-22                                                                 £UP Volume VI

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 6/12/97
CHAPTER 3 • QA/QC METHODS
                          EMISSION INVENTORY QUALITY ASSURANCE SYSTEM
                                         AREA SOURCES
                      SIP RULE IN PLACE CONSISTENCY CHECK EXCEPTION REPORT E

                 BASE YEAR: 1990  FILENAME: AREADAT DATE REPORT GENERATED: 07JUL94

                                DEFINITION OF REPORT E:
                                Area sources may be covered under SIP rules in some areas.
                                Check that this report is consistent with local rules.

                                PRIORITY RANKING SCHEME:
                                1  = High Priority         - Resolution/Determination Required
                                2 = Warning/Advisory     - No Formal Action Required
                                3 = Informative         - See Text for Further Description
                          EMISSION INVENTORY QUALITY ASSURANCE SYSTEM
                                         AREA SOURCES
                      SIP RULE IN PLACE CONSISTENCY CHECK EXCEPTION REPORT E

                 BASE YEAR: 1990 FILENAME: AREADAT  DATE REPORT GENERATED: 07JUL94
                                      Priority 1: High Priority
Exception
Resolution
	
	
ST CNTY CITY ZN
18 005
18 005
sec
24-15-300-000
24-20-000-000
sec
Description
Degreasing
Drycleaning
Pollutant
VOC
VOC
SIP Rule
in Place
Reported
Y
N
SIP Rule
in Place
Expected
N
Y
Rule
Effective-
ness
80%
0%
Rule
Penetra-
tion
60%
0%
   FIGURE 3.5-7.  EIQA AREA SOURCES SIP RULE IN PLACE CONSISTENCY CHECK

filP Volume VI                                                                          3.5-23

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS                                                6/12/97
       •      Vehicle Speed Summary Report (provides overview of speeds used in
             model run; and

       •      Vehicle Registration Distribution Report (provides an overview of model
             vehicle registration distributions).

5.3.2 MOBILE INPUT DATA ANALYSIS SYSTEM (MIDAS)

MIDAS is a data processing system to facilitate the storage, retrieval,  and analysis of
input file variables used in mobile source modeling for SIP emissions  inventories.  It is
designed to support evaluating the contents of MOBILE input files, which are intended
to reflect all of the possible factors that could affect motor vehicle emissions within a
nonattainment area.

The reports generated by MIDAS provide a convenient means of summarizing the input
data and flagging potential problems.  Because these data are often provided to an
inventory preparer by another agency (e.g., the state's transportation department), the
inventory preparer may wish to pass these reports back to the data originator for  review
and comment.  Used in this way, MIDAS can be  a useful tool to facilitate dialogue
between the two agencies. Software-specific reports that MIDAS can generate are listed
below:

Input File Reports

These reports provide information about the MOBILE input variables stored in the
MIDAS database. Each report summarizes the information for a single database  record
that contains the variables for a single input file:

       •      Control Flag Summary (provides  a synopsis of the MOBILE flag settings);

       •      Detailed Optional Input (provides an in-depth view of some of the
             optional inputs that can be modeled);

       •      Scenario Summary [allows user to look at contents of each individual
             scenario record and local area parameter (LAP) record];

       •      Input File Comments (provides an analysis of an input file as to its  likely
             acceptability when used for a SIP emission inventory); and

       •      Input File Summary (summarizes the information contained in the
             previous four reports in order to provide a one-page synopsis of the input
             file variables and their likely acceptability for SIP modeling).
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 6/12/97                                                 CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 Area Reports

 These reports provide information about the MOBILE input variables used to model an
 entire nonattainment area:

       •      Area Control Flag Summary (similar to Control Flag Summary);

       •      Area Variable Summary (presents selected parameters used to model
              various inventories for a nonattainment area); and

       •      Area Registration Summary (provides user-supplied registration
              distribution for each input file within the  selected area).

 Miscellaneous Reports

 MIDAS also provides the following miscellaneous reports:

       •      Nonattainment Area Summary (provides a detailed description of an
              ozone or CO nonattainment area); and

       •      Database Summary (provides a listing of all the input file records that are
              currently in the database).

 Figure 3.5-8 illustrates the use of MIDAS for a QA review of Virginia's 1990 SIP on-
 road mobile source inventory. The error messages summarized in the  table focused the
 reviewer's attention on inventory data that departed from the  expected (in this case, the
 MOBILESa defaults). The discussion of the review provides several important pieces of
 information to the inventory preparer:

       •     The specific cause of the error flag is described;

       •     The relative importance of this possible error is  assessed; and

       •     A recommended action is stated.

 It should be noted that the agency did follow up on these recommendations  and  no
 errors were found.

 5.3.3  VISUAL AUDITING PROGRAMS

 Data visualization programs and methods can also be used as part of a QA/QC
 program to  review data and emissions.  These programs are capable of displaying the


EIIP Volume VI                                                                 3.5-25

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          G)
          C
          30
          m

          CO

          01

          00
          V)
          C
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      _  C
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          3
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          CO

          yj
          m

          m


          O
          m
          O
          CO
Error Message from MIDAS Input
File Comments Report
For vehicle types , . . . , the
percentage of age 1 vehicles is
high relative to the percentage of
age 2 vehicles.
For vehicle types , . . ., the
age 25 distribution is too low.
The fraction of LDDT is too high.
Spikes occur in the registration
distribution.
Counties/Cities Whose Input
File Showed Error Message
Charles City County Norfolk City
Chesterfield County Poquoson City
Chesapeake City Portsmouth City
Hampton City Richmond City
Hanover County Suffolk City
Henrico County Virginia Beach City
Newport City York County
Charles City County Poquoson City
Chesapeake City Portsmouth City
Hampton City Richmond City
Hanover County Suffolk City
Henrico County Virginia Beach City
Newport City York County
Norfolk City
Chesterfield County Henrico County
Colonial Heights City Hopewell City
Hanover County Richmond City
Charles City County Newport City
Chesterfield County Norfolk City
Chesapeake City Poquoson City
Hampton City Portsmouth City
Hanover County Richmond City
Henrico County Suffolk City
James City County York County
Item
Requiring
Further
Review
(Norfolk City and
Richmond City
only)
<
<

Noncritical
Item
(all other
cities/counties)


'
                                                                                                                                                           i
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                                                                                                                                                           O
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                                                                                                                                                           I
                                                                                                                                                          (o
                                                                                                                                                          NJ

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 6/12/97                                                 CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 data in a more visual format (i.e., maps, timelines, scatter plots).  Examples of such
 programs are Voyager, ARC View, and Map INFO.  These software packages allow the
 user to browse quickly and easily through large spatial and temporal databases.
 Because the data are always displayed graphically, the user can see relationships that
 might otherwise have remained obscure or invisible.  All of these packages allow the
 user to import data files in common formats (usually "DBF").  A linked version of
 Voyager, SIPView, was developed and released by the EPA specifically for use with SIP
 inventories.

 Figure 3.5-9 shows an example from Voyager (Misenheimer, 1996).  A point source
 emissions inventory for Georgia is plotted on a map and the relative magnitudes of the
 emissions are shown by the  vertical bars.  The circled items show sources with incorrect
 UTM coordinates (that is, the points are outside of state boundaries). The reviewer
 could check each point by displaying the data associated with each point.

 If a data visualization software package is to be used as part of a QA/QC program, the
 following features are desirable:

       •      Ability to correct the data interactively will make this tool  more useful for
              QC; that is, the user should be able to select the point, display the data,
              update or correct if necessary, and redisplay it.

       •      Ability to print reports will allow easy documentation of QA/QC activities.

       •      Ability to print graphics will also allow documentation of QA/QC
              activities.  Packages that only plot points are less useful than those that
              display values  for variables associated with these points (e.g., bars
              representing emissions).

 5.4  USER-DEFINED AUTOMATED QA CHECKS

 Inventory preparers with access to computer software and the skills to fully exploit that
 software may wish to  create their own automated QA systems.  Some emissions-
 estimation software programs provide the user with the ability to "create" reports. This
 allows the user to specify what information is to be printed in a report. Alternatively,
 database software can be used to develop a program  that will read the emissions data
 and generate reports.  QA/QC activities can be facilitated by designing and using
 reports that present key variables for auditing.

 A relatively sophisticated system of automated QA programs has been developed by air
 quality modelers in Texas (Neece and Smith, 1994). They had previously identified
 point source emissions as a critical component of ozone modeling and developed a


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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
6/12/97
                  VOC931991
            FIGURE 3.5-9.  EXAMPLE OF VISUAL AUDITING TOOL



3.5-28                                                   EHP Volume VI

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 6/12/97                                                  CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
 series of checks, many of which are specifically designed to catch errors that will most
 impact modeling results (see also Section 6, "Sensitivity Analysis," of this chapter).

 Two types of procedures are involved. The first is a series of database checks.  One of
 particular interest is a ratio test. The ratio of VOC/NOX emissions from an emissions
 unit is compared to the ratio of VOC/NOX factors for that unit.  Emission factors are
 not always used to estimate emissions, so these ratios may not always agree exactly.
 However, extreme disparities in the ratios are investigated (See Neece and Smith, 1994,
 for descriptions and examples of all tests).

 The second  type of procedure uses graphical analyses to plot histograms (bar charts)
 showing the distributions of key data. Scatter plots are also used to identify outliers
 (examples are shown  in Figure 3.5-10).  (The use of descriptive statistical methods such
 as these is discussed more fully in Section 7 of this chapter.)   Spatial plots  of the data
 are used to  check  that plant coordinates  are correct.

 The system  of automated QA programs developed by Neece  and Smith (1994)  is an
 excellent example  of an inventory QA program designed to fulfill a specific need: that
 of ensuring the quality of results of an air quality model that addresses issues critical to
 the particular modeling exercise. The developers of an inventory do not always know
 how their inventory will be used and,  even when they know, they may not be aware of
 any special concerns.  It is important that the users of an inventory identify those data
 quality issues and perform their own QA checks.
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
    6/12/97
                                                              S3
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-------
 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
 QUICK REVIEW
       Definition:


       Objective:

       Optimal usage:
       Minimum expertise
       required:

       Advantages:
       Limitations:
A systematic study of how changes in model (or
inventory) input parameters affect the output.
To identify the parameters that have the greatest
effect on the results.
When planning both the inventory and the QA
program, sensitivity analysis can be used to
prioritize the efforts.  The user of an inventory
also needs to understand the inventory sensitivities
with respect to how the inventory is to be used.
Moderate to high, depending on model complexity
and/or  availability of sensitivity analysis results.
Allows  the most efficient utilization of limited
resources by focusing efforts where they will do
the most good.
(1) Not a substitute for QA/QC procedures to
verify data and calculations, and (2) can be very
time-consuming if the model or inventory is very
complex.
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                                             3.6-1

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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS                                                  6/12/97
 6.1   OVERVIEW OF METHOD

 A sensitivity analysis is a process for identifying the magnitude, direction, and form
 (e.g., linear or nonlinear) of the effect of an individual parameter on the model's result.
 It is usually done by repeatedly running the model and changing the value of one
 variable while holding the others constant. If a model has a large number of variables,
 conducting a thorough sensitivity analysis can require a great deal of effort.

 With respect to  emissions inventories, sensitivity analyses may be used to: (1) evaluate
 the overall inventory, (2) identify sensitivities of specific emissions models, or
 (3) identify key inventory data that, when used  as input to air  quality models, have the
 potential to significantly affect the results.  These types of analyses should be used when
 planning an inventory in order to focus both development resources  and QA/QC efforts
 on the critical elements of the database.  Sensitivity analyses will also be important to
 the user of the final inventory.

 Sensitivity analyses of inventories can be accomplished through several steps, and even
 the simplest approach can yield useful results.  For example, individual source categories
 can be ranked in order of their contribution to  total  emissions for a given pollutant. A
 variation is  to rank the categories and then calculate the cumulative  percent of
 emissions.  These ranks can then be used to prioritize categories and target the QA
 efforts.

 Somewhat more complicated, but also more useful, is identifying the impacts of
 underlying variables on emissions. For example, population is a commonly used
 surrogate for calculating area source emissions  of VOCs.  If area sources are a large
 component of a  VOC inventory, small errors in the population value can have a
 significant impact on the emissions estimate.  Knowledge of this fact might prompt an
 agency to conduct a survey or to use methods other than per capita factors.

 Models are  often used to estimate emissions for specific source categories.  Table 3.6-1
 lists many of these models and provides references for some publicly-available sensitivity
 analyses. Unfortunately, complete sensitivity analyses have not been published for many
 of these models.

 It is ultimately up to the inventory developers to determine the significance of each
 source category in their inventories and direct QA efforts accordingly.  If a source
 category contributes a relatively small proportion of the emissions, conducting a
 sensitivity analysis may not be worthwhile.
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 6/12/97
CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
                                     TABLE 3.6-1
             KEY VARIABLES FOR SOME EMISSIONS ESTIMATION MODELS
Model
MOBILE5ba
BEIS, BEIS-2.2"
Landfill Air
Emissions
Estimation
Modelc'd
SIMSd
TANKSd
Description
Mobile source emission factors
Biogenic emissions
Landfill VOC and methane
emissions
VOC emissions from
wastewater treatment
Emissions of organic liquids
from fixed-roof or floating-roof
tanks
Key Variables
I/M, VMT mix, speed, mileage
accumulation, temperature
Canopy effects, temperature,
sunlight, biomass/land-use
Decay rate (k), methane
potential of waste (LQ),
nonmethane organic compound
(NMOC) concentration, length
of time refuse has been in
place
Aeration, biodegradation,
surface area and wind speed,
retention time
Location, tank type, tank
contents
 a From data supplied by Office of Mobile Sources; for more discussion, see the example in this section.
 b Pierce et al., 1990; Birth, 1995; see also Lamb et al., 1993; Gaudioso et al., 1994.
 c Peer et al., 1992.
  From Session 10 of "Emissions Inventory Satellite Workshop Training Manual/Presentation Material."


 Finally, if the inventory is being prepared as input for a model, a sensitivity analysis of
 that model can be very useful for inventory preparation and QA.  Table 3.6-2 lists
 several air quality models that require emissions inventories as input.  Although
 ensuring the accuracy of emissions is obviously important for all these models, the
 importance of other inventory parameters varies from model to model. The relevant
 temporal scale, for example, may be annual, daily, or hourly, and the maximum or the
 average emissions may be required.  Spatially allocating emissions presents an additional
 complication.  Some models for some pollutants may be very sensitive to spatial scales;
 for example, models of tropospheric ozone formation may be very sensitive to the
 spatial distribution of short-lived pollutants, but relatively insensitive to those with
 longer half-lives.
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                      3.6-3

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CHAPTER 3 • QA/QC METHODS
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                                    TABLE 3.6-2
            KEY INVENTORY VARIABLES FOR SOME AIR QUALITY MODELS
Model
Industrial Source
Complex Long Term
(ISCLT)
Industrial Source
Complex Short Term
(ISCST)
Urban Airshed Model
(UAM)
Regional Acid
Deposition Model
(RADM) and Regional
Oxidant Model (ROM)
Scale3
Local (up to 20 km),
annual concentrations
Local (up to 20 km),
hourly, 8-hour, 24-hour
Urban (20 to 200 km),
hourly
Regional
(200 to 2000 km),
hourly
Key Inventory Variables
• Emission rates
• Point source plume riseb
• Location of source(s)
• Dimensions of buildings
adjacent to sources
• Location of point sources
• Spatial/temporal allocation of
area and mobile source
emissions
• Emission totals per grid cell
• Point source plume rise5
• Speciation of VOC
compounds
• Temperatures (used to
estimate biogenic emissions)
• Location of point sources
• Point source plume riseb
• Speciation of VOC
compounds
a Spatial scale conventions from NAPAP (1991) are used here.
b Inventory variables used to calculate plume rise are exit velocity, exit temperature, and stack diameter.
3.6-4
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 6/12/97	CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS


 Table 3.6-3 summarizes the preferred and alternative methods for using sensitivity
 analyses in the development of emissions inventories.

                                  TABLE 3.6-3

         SENSITIVITY ANALYSES:  PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS
Method
Preferred
Alternative 1
Procedure
When preparing the Inventory Preparation Plan (IPP/QAP) for an
emissions inventory, prioritize data gathering and QA/QC efforts by
conducting sensitivity analyses to focus on key variables. The analyses
should include: (1) previous inventories, (2) emissions models to be
used in preparing the inventory, and (3) models for which the
inventory will be used as input data.
Use existing sensitivity analyses of emissions models and of previous
inventories to identify key variables and potential trouble spots.
 6.2  SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS  FOR AN AREA SOURCE INVENTORY

 Area source emissions are often estimated using an emission factor and a surrogate for
 the emissions activity. Population and employment by SIC code category are commonly
 used in this approach. As discussed in Chapter 1 of Volume III (Preferred and
 Alternative Methods for Area Sources), the use of  these surrogates is a significant
 source of uncertainty of the emissions.

 Table 3.6-4 shows the percent of VOC emissions attributable to specific area sources for
 a state and the methods used to estimate the emissions.  A large percentage of the
 emissions were estimated using per capita or per employee factors. To determine just
 how important population and other surrogates are to the overall estimate, a simple
 sensitivity analysis was conducted.

 The sources were assigned to six general methods groups: (1) per capita, (2) per
 employee,  (3) throughput (this includes any category for which emissions are based on
 fuel use, production, or consumption of a material), (4) statistical models, (5) surveys,
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
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                               TABLE 3.6-4
                    DAILY VOC INVENTORY FOR A STATE
Area Source Category
Commercial/Consumer Solvent Use
Architectural Surface Coating
Gasoline Distribution
Industrial Surface Coating
Surface Cleaning Operations
Dry Cleaning Operations
Petro. Vessel Loading/Unloading
Automobile Refinishing
Graphic Arts Facilities
Asphalt Paving
Traffic Paints
Agricultural Pesticides Application
Commercial Bakeries
Structure Fires
Municipal Landfills
Residential Fuel Combustion
Industrial Fuel Combustion
Aircraft Refueling
Apartment Incinerators
Wastewater Treatment
Hospital Sterilizers
Forest Fires
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion
Breweries
Barge, Tank Car, Rail Car, Drum Cleaning
Medical Waste Incinerators
Asphalt Roofing Kettles
Orchard Heaters
Distilleries
Agricultural/Slash Burning
Wineries
Open Burning
VOCs,
Ib/day
302,854
295,558
246,175
240,237
172,429
73,904
66,673
51,931
48,037
32,450
28,976
22,421
20,654
18,728
13,496
4,571
3,775
2,111
563
462
299
292
266
192
119
11
1.5
0
0
0
0
0
%
Total
18
17
14
14
10
4
4
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Estimation Procedure
per capita
per capita
gasoline consumption
per employee, per capita
per employee
per employee
petro products loaded/unloaded
per capita
per capita
consumption
per capita
application rate, acres crops
per capita
per fire
statistical models
fuel use
fuel use
aviation fuel consumption
engineering judgment
survey
per hospital bed
acres burned
fuel use
state beer production
survey, engineering judgment
engineering judgment
per square paper
survey
survey
survey
state wine production
survey
3.6-6
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 and (6) engineering judgment.  Based on expert judgment, the ranking of the estimates
 from highest to poorest quality was:

       1.      Survey

       2.      Throughput

       3.      Statistical models

       4.      Per employee

       5.      Per capita

       6.      Engineering judgment

 (For more discussion on emissions quality ranking and/or uncertainty, see Chapter 4 of
 this volume.)

 Figure 3.6-1 is a histogram of percent VOC (from Table 3.6-4) estimated by each of the
 above methods.  An important finding of this simple analysis is that over 70 percent of
 the area source VOC emissions were estimated using two mid- to low-quality methods.
 The state air pollution control agency is seeking ways to reduce emissions, and viable
 control methods have been identified for some coatings.  The Agency  now is concerned
 that more accurate methods may be needed to evaluate the effects of  controls for these
 population-based estimates.

 Because emissions were estimated using mostly linear models (e.g., emission factor times
 activity), the relationship between the emissions estimate  and population and/or
 employment is easy to understand.  Figure 3.6-2 demonstrates how percentage changes
 in population  or employment affect VOC emissions.  The graph shows that a 25 percent
 change in population will result in a 10 percent change in total area source VOCs (that
 is, VOCs from all sources).  This suggests that small  errors in the population variable do
 not have a very large impact overall.  If the  inventory preparer has alternative estimates
 of population  (or other variable used as activity data), an analysis such as this can help
 determine whether the choice of alternative  values is a significant one.

 This type of analysis can be used  to target area source categories for improvement.  In
 this example, the state agency's plans for the next inventory might include:

       •      Dropping the "Open Burning" and "Barge Cleaning" categories because
             surveys showed these were not important  sources of emissions;
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         50

         45i


         40
      o
      |  30 H
      u
      O  25
      s?
         20
         15


         10
                              %VOC
         0 engineering
            judgment
survey
statistical
 models
throughput   per employee    per capita
                                    Emissions Method
            FIGURE 3.6-1.  PERCENT VOC BY ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY


       •      Conducting a survey of paint distributors to develop more reliable
             estimates for "Architectural Surface Coating;" and

       •      Intensifying point source surveys to cover more of the industrial surface
             coating emissions in the point source inventory and using data from
             smaller sources to develop local per employee factors.

This is a very simple example of a sensitivity analysis.  Its simplicity is  a result of the
methods used to estimate emissions. As more complicated methods are used, the
complexity of the analysis increases. Also, specific results from this analysis cannot
necessarily be extrapolated to other inventories. Each inventory has unique features and
sensitivity analyses need  to be conducted to meet specific objectives.
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
       I
       I
       t
       o
       g
       O)
       a
                                                % change in population
                                                % change in employment
    FIGURE 3.6-2.  EFFECT OF POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT ON AREA SOURCE VOCs

 6.3  SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF EPA's  MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSION
      FACTOR MODEL

 The EPA's MOBILE model is the most commonly used method for estimating onroad
 mobile source emission factors. At the time this volume was written (1997), version 5b
 of the model was in use. A fairly detailed sensitivity analysis of version 4.1 was
 conducted in 1992 and the results distributed by the EPA's Office of Mobile Sources
 (OMS).  One example from that analysis is presented here.

 The MOBILE model is one of the most complex models commonly used for emissions
 estimation.  Default data are provided for many of the input variables, but the user is
 encouraged to develop region-specific input data.
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This sensitivity analysis compared three test cases. The conditions used for each case
are summarized  in Table 3.6-5. The results of the analysis for nonmethane hydrocarbon
(NMHC) emissions are summarized in Figure 3.6-3a. Not surprisingly, VMT has a
significant linear effect on emissions. Just as in  the area source example described
previously, emissions are estimated by multiplying a factor by an activity value
(i.e., VMT).  The other variables, however, directly affect the emission factors produced
by the MOBILE model.  The model was relatively insensitive to changes in Vehicle Age
Distribution and VMT mix (less than 5 percent difference in emissions).  Other
variables had a more profound effect;  for example, underestimating the average speed
by as little as 5 miles per hour (mph) resulted in greater than a 20 percent increase in
emissions.

However, as Figure 3.6-3b shows, model sensitivities are different for other pollutants.
VMT mix is very important for summertime NOX emissions, but temperature  is not
(These results are based on the same set of conditions as those in Figure 3.6-3a).

These sensitivity studies of the MOBILE model  illustrate the importance of analyzing
the model for all potential scenarios of interest.   Pollutants may be affected differently
by changes in variables;  also, the time  of the year may be an important factor.

6.4  SENSITIVITY OF Am QUALITY MODELS TO INVENTORY INPUT
       DATA

The users of inventories often  have little or no involvement in developing the inventory.
Therefore, they may subject the inventory to intensive review and specific QA
procedures designed to identify problems that could impact the outcome  of their
particular use  of the inventory. One such group is composed of air quality modelers.

Air quality modelers typically conduct  sensitivity studies of the air quality model
response to changes in emissions data  input to the model. These sensitivity studies
many times are simple and involve across the board increases or decreases in total
emissions.  For example, a common  sensitivity simulation usually performed for most
photochemical modeling studies is the  removal of all emissions from the simulation.
These bounding  simulations, while not realistic, provide the  modeler with information as
to the overall response of the photochemical model to changes in emissions.

While very useful for interpreting modeling results for a given  modeling domain,
emission sensitivity simulations cannot be generalized to all photochemical modeling
studies. Every modeling study will have its own  peculiarities and results of sensitivity
simulations for the region cannot be extrapolated to other areas. The meteorology for a
region, the magnitude and relative mix of biogenic,  area, and point source emissions, the
reactivity of the  emissions, the initial and boundary conditions  in the region, and the

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                                        TABLE 3.6-5
          MODEL INPUT VALUES USED FOR MOBILE4.1  SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Variables
Inspection/
Maintenance
(I/M)
Travel (VMT)
Speed (mph)
Temperature
(°F)
Hot/Cold
Distribution
PCCN/PCHC/
PCCC
VMT Mix
Mileage
Accumulation
Vehicle Age
Distribution
Range of Conditions
Low
Basic
75,000
14.7
65-90
5.0/5.0/5.0
Fairbanks
Fairbanks
Fairbanks
Base
None
100,000
19.6
FTP speed
70-95
20.6/27.3/20.6
FTP cycle
MOBILE4.1
default
MOBILE4.1
default
MOBILE4.1
default
High
High option
enhanced
125,000
24.5
75-100
5.0/55.0/5.0
California
California
Phoenix
Notes
Indicates the effects of I/M
options.
A percent change in VMT causes
the same percent change in
emissions.
Indicates the effect of inputting an
incorrect speed.
Indicates the effect of a 5°F error
in temperature.
The low condition represents
fewer hot or cold starts than the
FTP cycle. The high condition
represents an increase in hot
starts, but few cold starts.
In Fairbanks more VMT is
distributed to heavy duty gasoline
and diesel trucks than in the
MOBILE4.1 default. California
has more VMT distributed to cars
and heavy duty gasoline trucks.
The low mileage accumulation in
Fairbanks on light duty autos was
substituted for the MOBILE4.1
default for the low condition.
California mileage accumulation is
greater than the MOBILE4.1
default.
The Fairbanks vehicle fleet has a
smaller percentage of older cars
while Phoenix has a larger
percentage than the MOBILE4.1
default.
FTP = Federal test procedure
PCCN = % of VMT accumulated by non-catalyst-equipped vehicles in cold-start mode.
PCHC = % of VMT accumulated by catalyst-equipped vehicles in hot-start mode.
PCCC = % of VMT accumulated by catalyst-equipped vehicles in cold-start mode.
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     (a)
                  I/M


           Travel (VMT)


           Speed (mph)


       Temperature (°F)


    Hot/Cold Distribution


              VMT Mix


   Mileage Accumulation


  Vehicle Age Distribution
                     -30%     -20%      -10%     0%      10%      20%

                                     Percent Change In NMHC Emissions
     (b)
                  I/M


          Travel (VMT)


          Speed (mph)


       Temperature (°F)


    Hot/Cold Distribution


              VMT Mix


   Mileage Accumulation


  Vehicle Age Distribution
                     -30%     -20%      -10%      0%      10%      20%

                                     Percent Change in NOx Emissions
30%
30%
         FIGURE 3.6-3(A AND B).  SENSITIVITY OF NMHC, NOX EMISSIONS


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 occurrence or non-occurrence of transport of precursor pollutants from outside the
 domain all combine to create a set of unique responses to changes in emissions in a
 given modeling domain.

 With the above caveat in mind, it is still useful to examine the type of information that
 can be obtained from a properly formulated sensitivity study.  Below are three  examples
 of the type of information feedback to the inventory specialist that can result from
 sensitivity studies.

 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

 Numerous investigators have examined the sensitivity of ozone formation to emissions in
 the  South Coast Air Basin (Los Angeles metropolitan area) in Southern California.  A
 key driver for these emission sensitivity studies was the results of the tunnel study of
 motor vehicle emissions conducted  during the Southern California Air Quality Study
 (SQAS) (Pierson et al., 1990). The results of this study indicated that  onroad motor
 vehicle hydrocarbon emissions were significantly underestimated in the South Coast Air
 Quality Management District (SCAQMD) inventory.  The SCAQMD addressed this
 issue in its 1994 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) by conducting photochemical
 model sensitivity  studies in which hydrocarbon emissions from all onroad vehicles were
 doubled (SCAQMD, 1994).  The SCAQMD  modeling was performed using the Urban
 Airshed Model (UAM).  For all episodes modeled, model performance for the  doubled
 vehicle hydrocarbon emissions scenario was significantly improved above the base case.

 Harley et al. (1993), using the California  Institute of Technology (CIT) photochemical
 model for the same Los Angeles episodes, also adjusted upward motor vehicle emissions
 as indicated from the SCAQS tunnel study results. Again, there was a significant
 improvement in model performance using the upward adjusted motor vehicle emissions
 inventory. Results  from these two modeling  studies using different models and
 methodology provide significant insight into potential biases in  the 1994 AQMP motor
 vehicle emission inventory and demonstrate the value of emission sensitivity studies.

 TEXAS GULF COAST

 A different type of  emissions sensitivity analysis was performed by Neece and Smith
 (1994) using UAM  simulations for the Texas Gulf Coast.  The automated QA program
 developed by Neece and  Smith has  been previously discussed in Section 5 of this
 chapter. In their sensitivity analyses, they examined the sensitivity of peak ozone
 concentrations to individual components of the emission inventory.  Based upon these
 analyses, they concluded:
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       •      Peak predicted ozone concentration is more sensitive to point source
             emissions than to area, mobile, or biogenic source emissions.

       •      "Hot spots" in the grid occur where NOX and VOC emissions are mixed;
             these grid cells need to be checked carefully to ensure that point source
             locations are correct.

       •      The emissions from large sources outside the boundary of the modeling
             domain are not detected by UAM; therefore, a test was designed to
             identify large sources just outside the  upwind boundary.

As a consequence of their concern over these model sensitivities, Neece and Smith
developed their own automated QA procedures to review point source inventories.

ATLANTA

Biogenic emissions are a  very significant source of hydrocarbon emissions in the Atlanta,
as first reported by Chameides et al. (1988).  In a subsequent analysis of biogenic
emissions in the Atlanta area, Cardelino (1995) analyzed the impact on ozone precursor
emissions and ozone concentrations of changes in land use patterns, alternative
estimates of isoprene emissions from biogenic sources, and variation in temperature
reflecting different land use patterns. Based on this analysis, Cardelino concluded:

       •      There remains uncertainty in the most appropriate algorithm for
             estimating biogenic emissions of isoprene, a highly reactive component of
             biogenic emissions.

       •      Satellite imagery can potentially provide improved representation of
             temperature fields,  leading to improvements in the temporal distribution
             of emission inventories  and to potential improvements in modeled ozone
             concentrations.

       •      Future population changes and urbanization can significantly change land
             use with resulting changes in ambient surface temperatures. These
             changes should be taken into account when developing future year
             emissions estimated and when performing photochemical modeling
             simulations.

The above studies reflect a sample of the information feedback available to the
inventory specialist from the performance of photochemical modeling emission
sensitivity studies.  Again, each sensitivity result cannot be reliably extrapolated outside
the specific modeling domain for which the results were obtained. However, the
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 inventory specialist is encouraged to work with the end-users of inventories to design the
 appropriate sensitivity studies for a given area and inventory.  By gaining an
 appreciation of the ultimate uses to which an inventory is subjected, end-use  concerns
 can be addressed when planning the inventory, preparing the QAP, and in subsequent
 inventory development and QA/QC activities.  The active involvement of the inventory
 specialist with the end-use of the inventory will tend to minimize additional analyses and
 QA that modelers and other end-users perform to better understand the inventory.
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STATISTICAL  CHECKS
QUICK REVIEW

       Definition:

       Objective:
       Optimal usage:
       Minimum expertise
       required:

       Advantages:
       Limitations:
The use of descriptive statistics, or statistical tests
or procedures to evaluate or control data quality.
Descriptive statistics are most commonly used to
compare results, and to flag unusual or unlikely
values. More formal statistical procedures may
use specified sampling methods and performance
specifications as a quality control procedure.
Descriptive statistics are useful for QA as part of a
Peer Review or Independent Audit of a completed
or partially completed inventory; particularly
useful for comparing different inventories.
Statistical QC is potentially a very useful method
for inventory QC.
Moderate to high, depending on how much the
system is automated, and the complexity of the
analysis.
(1) Can process large amounts of data, (2) can
reduce subjectivity of informal reality checks, and
(3) contributes to the continuous improvement of
inventories.
(1) More sophisticated methods require some
understanding of statistical theory, (2) common
statistical methods are based on assumptions of
normality (which is often not the case for
emissions data), and (3) not a replacement for
human evaluation and judgment.
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7.1   OVERVIEW OF METHODS

Statistical procedures offer a wide array of tools that perform many of the same
QA/QC functions described in previous sections.  As with the automated checks
discussed  in Section 5, statistical checks are generally used as a tool to facilitate reality
checks (Section 2), peer reviews (Section 3), or independent audits (Section 8).  They
are also used in some emissions validation procedures (Section 9).  Many of the
statistical  methods described in this system can be automated, and probably should be if
the data sets are very large or if the procedure is to be repeated many times.

There are two basic methods used to draw conclusions about data quality; the most
commonly used does not require statistical analyses.  For example, the usefulness of
reality checks stems from the reviewer's ability to examine or compare some values, and
to draw a conclusion from them.  The reviewer is using logical inference to draw that
conclusion; that is, the facts are weighed against that reviewer's knowledge of the
subject and a conclusion about the validity (this process may also be called engineering
judgment  or expert judgment).  Statistical inference is an alternative method for drawing
conclusions about data sets. For some types of decisions, statistical inference is more
trusted and more reliable than logical inference. However, this is not necessarily true in
all situations.  Sometimes the answer is so obvious that statistics  are not needed. Also,
often too  little is known about the data distribution  to use statistical procedures reliably.

If statistical checks are only alternative ways of performing the other procedures
described in this document, it is reasonable to ask why statistics should be used at all.
The non-statistical approach to QA/QC requires the reviewers to base their decisions
on their experiences with inventory preparation (which includes knowledge of past
quality history) and on their understanding of the weaknesses in  the data, methods, and
process. This approach is sound in principle, but is  also subject to several potential
problems.  The experts' memories may be inaccurate or short;  furthermore, key experts
may leave the agency, taking this "institutional knowledge" with them. Reliance on
historical  problems may lead to a failure to identify new problems in unexpected areas.
Finally, experts are sometimes wrong; the uncritical acceptance of an expert's value can
lead to persistent errors. While it is impossible to fully automate a QA/QC program
and  not advisable to rely entirely on statistical methods, the use of statistical descriptors,
analytical procedures, and random sampling should  be used to decrease reliance on key
experts. Also, some institutional knowledge can be  built into the statistical procedures.

The term statistical checks as used in this section describes a miscellaneous set of
tools/procedures that are mostly useful for QA but  can sometimes be applied to QC as
well.  However, many of these procedures fit the concept of "statistical quality control."
This is the label attached to a formal system of process QC founded by W.A. Shewhart
in the 1930s and popularized by W.E. Deming in the second half of the 20th century.


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 Although originally applied to manufacturing processes, the concept has been expanded
 to cover services as well.  While formal statistical QC procedures have not been widely
 applied to emissions inventories, QA/QC procedures such as the range checks described
 under "Computerized Checks" (Section 5) are very similar to the acceptance sampling
 procedures used in statistical QC.  The procedure could be extended to emissions
 inventories in the future, and some useful concepts from statistical quality control are
 included in this section.

 Commonly used statistical methods for inventory QA/QC are:

       1.     Descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation, frequency distributions,
             etc.) are often used for data presentation and to facilitate peer review (see
             Section 7.2).

       2.     Statistical procedures to detect outliers can be used for range check
             procedures (see Section 7.3).

       3.     Statistical tests (such as t-tests or similar analyses) can be used for
             comparability checks (to compare two or more inventories) and for data
             validation, such as comparing inventory data to ambient data, or
             evaluating the relationships between parameters used in an inventory (see
             Section 7.4).  The latter is  discussed in more detail in Section 9.

 The first two types of methods are used  fairly commonly; the third method has not been
 used very much but probably should be.

 Because statistical analysis requires specialized expertise and also because essential
 QA/QC functions can be met using  non-statistical methods, the EIIP has not designated
 any preferred or alternative statistical methods. The information in this section is
 provided to assist those who wish to incorporate statistical methods in their inventory
 QA/QC program. Also, if surveys and/or statistical methods are used to develop
 emission inventories, this section will be  useful to peer reviewers or QA personnel who
 need to assess the validity of the statistical methods used.  However, only an overview of
 important statistical terms and concepts is provided; for more detailed information, the
 reader should consult the references cited in this volume.

 7.2  DESCRIPTIVE  STATISTICS

 The most common use of statistics in emission  inventories is to summarize and report
 both emissions and the data used in calculations. However, statistics are useful at
 several stages in the inventory process. They can be used to make informed decisions
 about  the appropriate data or model to use, and to document the reasons  for that


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choice.  They are used to screen large datasets or emissions calculations to identify
potential errors.  Statistical descriptors are also useful for assuring consistency within an
inventory.  For example, when comparing emissions from different counties, a greater
than expected range of emissions for one county may be shown. These would be
flagged  for further checking of the data and methods.

Table 3.7-1 summarizes descriptive statistics that  are useful for these purposes.  QA
reports  (such as some of those shown in Section 5) can  and  do make use of summary
statistics to facilitate peer review of the database. Statistics  used in this way are
primarily useful as a screening method much like a reality check. They should also be
used to report and document the data (as discussed in Chapter 2, reporting and
documentation play an important role in QA). While it may be difficult to spot an
unusually large value in a vast data array, that number should stand out if the proper
summary statistics are displayed.

One major limitation in advancing the use of statistical  methods for QA/QC of
inventories is that there has been little published analysis of the statistical characteristics
of emission inventories.  There is a general recognition  that the frequency distributions
of emissions  are often not normal (or Gaussian). The lognormal distribution is held to
be more representative of emissions data.  However, the emission source, the type of
pollutant,  and the basis on which emissions are being presented (e.g., per Btu, per unit
fuel, per capita, etc.) will determine the resulting distribution. If statistical methods
(even the  simple methods are described here) are to be used effectively, the expected
distribution (i.e., the one that should occur if everything is correct) needs to be  known.
This will become the reference distribution that can be  used as the basis for comparison.
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                             CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
                                  TABLE 3.7-1
                   COMMONLY USED STATISTICAL DESCRIPTORS
     Term
  Formula
          Explanation
  Observation
                       The variable or attribute being
                       measured.
  Sample size
                              n
                       The number of values (or x/s) in
                       a set.
  Arithmetic
  mean
x =
                              1  "
                              -  £
                              n i = i
The mean, or average, is the
most commonly used estimate of
central tendency. However, it is
very sensitive to extreme values
and is not a good measure if
there is a very skewed
distribution or very large outliers.
  Range
                             x
                       The span of a set of numbers
                       where xmax is largest number and
                       xmin is smallest number in set.
                       The range is most useful when
                       emissions data are highly
                       uncertain and an expert is using
                       judgment to place "bounds" on
                       the expected values (e.g., "fugitive
                       dust emissions from unpaved
                       roads are between a range of 0.25
                       and 3.0 times the value estimated
                       using method x").
  Variance of
  a sample
                     s  =
                                  n - 1
                       A measure of the variability in a
                       sample.
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                                  TABLE 3.7-1

                                   CONTINUED
     Term
            Formula
          Explanation
  Standard
  deviation of
  a sample
                           s =
                                 A measure of dispersion in the
                                 original units (e.g., tons per year),
                                 The standard deviation, along
                                 with the mean,  are the principal
                                 measures used to define a value
                                 such as an emission rate and the
                                 associated uncertainty in the
                                 value.  For normally distributed
                                 data, approximately 95 percent of
                                 values lie within ±2 standard
                                 deviations of the mean.
 Estimated
 sum of
 population
                              NX
                                 The estimated sum of x/s in the
                                 population of size N; this formula
                                 should be used to estimate area
                                 source emissions from a survey of
                                 a representative sample of
                                 sources.
 Standard
 error of the
 estimated
 sum
                    SNx =
           Ns
                                       N
The estimated error associated
with the sample used to estimate
the population sum. The value of
s is the sample standard deviation
as defined above. Note that as n
approaches N, the error of the
estimated sum approaches zero.
  Median
The value Xj such that there is an
equal number of values larger and
smaller.
The median is the value from a
sample with a cumulative
frequency of 50 percent. It is
relatively insensitive to extreme
values so is a good measure of
central tendency when there are
extreme values such as is the case
for most ambient monitoring
data.
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                                   TABLE 3.7-1

                                    CONTINUED
      Term
       Formula
          Explanation
  Percentile
                            The value on a scale of 100 that
                            indicates the percent of a
                            distribution that is equal to or
                            below it.
  Geometric
  mean
                      y  = exp
                                n
                          where yj  = In Xj
                            Many environmental parameters
                            such as air quality monitoring
                            data tend to obey a lognormal
                            distribution rather than a normal
                            distribution.  Consequently, the
                            logarithmic transformation of
                            yj =  In Xj allows the data to be
                            treated as if coming from a
                            normal distribution.
  Confidence
  interval

    of sample
    mean
   X  -
                            l
                             a/2, n-1
    of sample
    proportion
    (P)
P ~
        n-1
             P (1 - P)
                 n
                                   P (1 - P)
                                       n
Values used to estimate a
statistical parameter and that
tend to include the true value of
the parameter a predetermined
proportion of the time if the
process of finding the group of
values is repeated a number of
times. A confidence interval
provides an estimate of the upper
and lower bounds of a value at a
given level of confidence
(e.g., there is a 95 percent
certainty that another sample
would produce an estimate
between the upper and lower
bounds).
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                                   TABLE 3.7-1

                                    CONTINUED
     Term
       Formula
          Explanation
  Absolute
  bias
                         Babs =  x - Obs
                            The bias in an emissions estimate
                            or parameter is the difference
                            between the estimated value and
                            the "true" value that is "known"
                            through measurement or
                            observation.  The absolute bias is
                            appropriate when the bias is
                            relatively constant across all
                            estimates of the true value
                            (e.g., an incorrect offset voltage
                            in a data logger produces a
                            constant offset in the measured
                            temperature).
  Relative bias
Bre, =
x - Obs
   x

x - Obs
  Obs
                                     x  100
                                     x  100
The relative bias is the absolute
bias expressed as a percentage of
either the "true" value or the
estimate.  It is more  appropriate
than the absolute bias when the
magnitude of the bias is a
function of the value itself
(e.g., the bias in estimates of
VOC emissions from motor
vehicles is a function of estimated
vehicle miles travelled).
  Coefficient
  of variation
                         CV =  ± x 100
                                x
                            The coefficient of variation
                            expresses the standard deviation
                            as a percentage of the mean
                            value. For lognormally
                            distributed data such as most
                            ambient monitoring data, the
                            coefficient of variation is used
                            analogously to the standard
                            deviation.
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                                     TABLE 3.7-1

                                      CONTINUED
Term
Root of the
mean
squared
error
Formula
RMSE -
•>

^ (*, - Obs)2
ft
Explanation
The root mean squared error
expresses the variability in the
bias in a form analogously to the
sample standard deviation. The
RMSE can be used analogously
(but not equivalently) to the
standard deviation or coefficient
of variation to express
uncertainty.
 where:
       t    =  Student's t distribution;
       a    =  significance level; and
       Obs  =  observed emission value of the "true" value of the parameter.
 Most of the statistical measures shown in Table 3.7-1 apply to data that obey a normal
 distribution.  However, emissions data tend to not be normally distributed for a number
 of reasons including:

       •   Emission inventories can be dominated by a few very large sources
           (i.e., utility NOX and sulfur oxides (SO2) emissions);

       •   The underlying activity data used to estimate emissions are not typically
           normally distributed (e.g., vehicle mile traveled data, population density in
           an urban area); and

       •   The processes  that lead to elevated emissions tend to be driven by extreme
           events that are not normally distributed (e.g., high load and acceleration
           events for motor vehicle, out of specification sulfur content for fuel  oil, high
           wind speeds for wind blown dust).

 Consequently, an inventory specialist should evaluate the emissions data for normality
 prior to  any detailed statistical  analysis of the emissions data or its uncertainty.  The
 objective of this section is to discuss methodology available for assessing the
 distributional nature of emissions data.
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Emissions from point sources are also often lognormal when expressed on a per facility
basis. The distribution of businesses based on size (where size is measured by number
of employees) is a well-documented example of a lognormally distributed variable
(Lawrence, 1988). For those industries where emissions are correlated with number of
employees, the distribution of emissions is at least partly explained by this fact.
Furthermore, for area sources whose emissions are estimated using per employee
factors, a lognormal (or other non-symmetrical) distribution of emissions is to be
expected.

Some data distributions relevant to emissions inventories are shown in Table 3.7-2.
While it is not necessary to understand the underlying mathematics, it is  important to
recognize  that many common statistical procedures are based on the assumption of
normality.  However,  real  world data are often not normal.  Sometimes it is useful to
"straighten" or normalize the data so that a certain statistical method can be used.
Table 3.7-3 gives several common data transformations and guidance on  when to use
them. The lognormal distribution is very commonly found in emission inventories as
discussed above  (an example is given in the following section); the lognormal
transformation is a method that is often used on right-skewed data to create a more
normally distributed variable. A transformation might be used if the intention is to use
the data for further statistical analysis; such as regression modeling.  However,
transformation back to the original data should be undertaken with caution, and is not
always appropriate. For example, the arithmetic mean of a log-transformed variable can
be back-transformed (by exponentiating), but this new value is  the geometric mean.  For
lognormally distributed data, the geometric mean is always less than the  arithmetic
mean (of the untransformed data). The geometric mean is often used to estimate the
lognormal mean and the median, but it is a biased estimate of both (Gilbert, 1987).

The arcsine transform is used when the data are proportions.  Examples  of these data
are also common in inventories.  The relative contribution of sources to  total emissions,
DARS scores (see Chapter 4), or control efficiencies are all expressed as values between
0 and 1.0.  If an inventory analyst wanted to  know if there were differences in the
relative contributions  of area sources between two counties (expressed as a fraction of
total emissions), for example, a t-test could be used after applying an arcsine
transformation to the data.  The mean and standard deviations of the raw
(untransformed data) should be reported along with the results of the statistical test.

Finally, the square root transform is useful for data that follows a Poisson distribution.
This type of distribution often occurs when the data are counts of independent items or
events occurring in space or time.  Typically, values of zero are common. This
distribution is most likely to be encountered  when collecting certain types of data that
are used to develop factors or activity data.  For example, to temporally  allocate mobile
source emissions, a field study to collect traffic counts might be implemented. The data
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£5
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TABLE 3.7-2
                          PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS RELEVANT TO EMISSIONS INVENTORIES
Distribution
Binomial
Lognormal
Normal
Uniform
Sample Mean
np, where
n = number in
sample or
population,
p = proportion
Sample Variance
np(l-p)
If the distribution is not highly skewed, simplest
approach is to use equations shown for normal
distribution3




Examples
Proportion of facilities in a SIC group
belonging to emissions source category.
Rule penetration (i.e., proportion of area
source affected by a rule).
See text.
Rarely found in environmental data but most
standard statistical formulas assume normal
distribution.
Often used as default distribution when true
distribution unknown.
     aFor a more detailed discussion of the methods used for estimating the mean, standard deviation and median of lognormally distributed

      data, see Gilbert (1987).
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                                   TABLE 3.7-3
              DATA TRANSFORMATIONS USED TO "NORMALIZE" DATA
   Transform name
    Calculation of
   transformed data
             Use when:
  log3
      X' = ln(x)
Raw data approximate or are known
to follow lognormal distribution.
  arcsine (or angular)
    0 = arcsinVp,
where p is a proportion
Raw data are proportions between 0
and 1.0; if most data points fall
between 0.3 and 0.7, this
transformation generally not needed.
 square root3
                        Raw data are counts of discrete
                        events (distribution is Poisson,
                        i.e., variance increases with the
                        mean).
alf any of original data are zero, a very small number is generally added to all of the original x values
 before transformation.

are collected in discrete intervals, depending on the location, time of day, and length of
interval.  Some of the values may be zero while others are quite high. These data are
likely to fit a Poisson distribution.

For more discussion of the proper use of data transformations, see Sokal and Rohlf
(1969).  An example of the use of normality tests and data transformation is given next.

7.2.1  TESTING FOR  NORMALITY

The first step is to generate basic statistical summaries of the data.  These summaries
include the minimum, maximum, mean, median, quartiles, and standard  deviation of the
data.  For normally distributed data, the mean and median should be equal and the
minimum and maximum values should be equally spaced below and above the mean.
Most likely, this simple test will indicate significant departure from normality. For
example, emissions data tend to have a few sources with very high emission rates that
produce a highly skewed distribution with a long tail, resulting in the mean being
significantly higher than the median.
3.7-12
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
                                   TABLE 3.7-4
       DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR Los ANGELES POINT SOURCE INVENTORYB
Pollutant
TOG
NOX
CO
SO2
PM10
Number
of Sources
24,432
6,980
6,004
1,033
8,225
Mean
(TPD)
0.012
1.2
0.025
3.0
0.0042
Median
(TPD)
0.0025
0.00088
0.0011
0.00095
0.00052
Upper
Quartile
(TPD)
0.0072
0.0052
0.0049
0.0090
0.0018
Min
(TPD)
-0.0
-0.0
-0.0
-0.0
0.0
Max
(TPD)
3.9
380
10
370
1.1
Standard
Deviation
(TPD)
0.067
10
0.21
22
0.023
"All emissions shown as tons per day (tpd).

Table 3.7-4 presents a summary of the basic descriptive statistics for the Los Angeles
data set used as an example in the remainder of this section.  This data set represents
estimated emissions for South Coast Air Basin for the year 2007 for point sources. For
each  of the pollutants, the descriptive statistics imply a highly skewed distribution.  The
mean is a factor of 10 greater than the median for all pollutants except for PM10. In
fact, the mean is greater than the upper quartile (75th  percentile) for all five pollutants.

The second step should be preparation of a histogram  of the emissions data. After the
initial review of the data presented in Table 3.7-4, it is reasonable to assume that the
data must be transformed if some semblance of normality is to be obtained. The most
common data transformation is a logarithmic transformation, whereby the emissions
estimates are replaced by the natural logarithm (logarithm to  the base e) of the
emissions data.  When this transformations complete, the resultant data many times can
be represented by a log-normal distribution.

Figures 3.7-1 and 3.7-2 present two histogram plots of total organic gases (TOG)
emissions from the South Coast Air Basin. Figure 3.7-1 gives a histogram of the
untransformed emissions data while Figure 3.7-2 presents the  data after application of
the log  transformation.  Based upon  visual inspection of Figure 3.7-2, the transformation
is highly successful in producing a log-normal distribution. The histogram is closely
matched by the fitted normal distribution.

Another graphical method for examining the  fit of a normal distribution is the expected
normal  plot. Figure 3.7-3 presents expected normal plots for TOG and NOX from point
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FIGURE 3.7-1. HISTOGRAM PLOT OF TOG EMISSIONS FOR Los ANGELES, No DATA

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3.7-14
                                              EIIP Volume VI

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                                 CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
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                                                  3.7-15

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                           EXAMPLE NORMAL PROBABILITY PLOTS OF EMISSIONS DATA
                               SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS
The standard z score of the
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z = (x - mean)/standard deviation.
The standardized z value is the
number of standard deviations the
variable x is from the mean.
                               The points plotting as a
                               straight line indicate the
                               data are well fit by a normal
                               distribution.
                                         Deviation from a straight
                                         line indicates a poor fit
                                         by a normal distribution.
                       The extreme values
                       are not as well fit
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low to high, is plotted on the
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6/12/97                                                 CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
sources in Los Angeles.  In this plot, the observed emission values (log transformed
values for this data set) are plotted on the X axis. On the Y axis, the standardized
value of the emissions in plotted.  The z value standardizes the distribution to have a
mean value of zero and a standard deviation of 1.0.  The z value is standard statistical
transformation and is computed as follows:
where:
       z   =  standard score;
       x   =  emission value;
       x   =  sample mean; and
       as   =  sample standard deviation.

For the purposes of the expected normal plot, the distribution being tested is assumed
to follow a normal distribution and thus x and as estimated from the data set are
assumed to be unbiased estimates.  For a non-normal distribution, this assumption is
violated but the plot itself will identify the lack of fit of the normal distribution.

When the standard score  is plotted against the respective value on a linear plot, data
from a normal distribution will plot as a straight line on an expected normal plot.  As
can be seen from Figure 3.7-3, the TOG data for Los Angeles plots as a relatively
straight line over most of its range. By comparison, there is a significant deviation from
a straight line (and hence log-normality) for the NOX emissions.

Included on Figure 3.7-3 are elements of the plot that provide insight as to the
normality or non-normality of the plotted  data.  First, if the data are normal,
approximately 95 percent  will  fall within ±2 standard deviations of the mean (between
-2 and +2 on the Y axis).  From inspection, the TOG data follows a straight line
between ±3 standard deviations (approximately  99.7 percent of the data).  Both the
NOX and TOG distribution deviate  from the straight line at both extremes. This is a
common occurrence because the hardest portions of a distribution to fit are the two
extremes. For the purposes of emissions uncertainty, the most important factor is the
semblance of normality for the bulk of the data.  Thus,  deviation from normality at the
very extremes of the distribution are generally unavoidable but expected.

It is obvious from an expected normal plot when the data clearly do not  approximate a
normal distribution. Figure 3.7-4 presents an expected normal plot of untransformed
Los Angeles point source  NOX emissions.  The observed "angle" in the  data is very
characteristic of a data set that is highly skewed  and in need of a logarithmic
transformation.

EHP  Volume VI                                                                  3.7-17

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6/12/97                                                 CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
One factor that leads to non-normality in emissions data is illustrated in Figure 3.7-5.
This figure presents a histogram of log-transformed NOX emissions in Los Angeles that
demonstrates a bimodal distribution of emissions.  Bimodal distributions are common
where there are significant differences in the types of sources producing emissions. For
NOX emissions, small industrial boilers and large utility boilers can potentially contribute
to the bimodal nature of NOX.

Most statistical packages include tests for determining the normality of data. However,
care should be taken when judging normality of emissions data on the basis of standard
statistical tests such as the Shapiro-Wilk normality test (Shapiro and Wilk, 1965).
Emission data  sets such as the Los Angeles set used here are very large (over
24,000 sources of TOG in the point source inventory).  Because of the large sample size,
very small deviations from normality in the distribution are judged to be statistically
significant.  The above transformed TOG data set, which appears to have a very good
visual log-normal fit, fails the Shapiro-Wilk normality test because of the very large
sample size.  However, for most emissions analysis purposes, the strict deviation of the
transformed data set from normality is not important.

7.3  STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL

Statistical quality control is a proactive set of procedures in which the assignable causes
of variation have been removed from the process (or at least that is the intention) and
only random causes are present. The expected error associated with those random
causes of variation is characterized by a probability distribution.  A tool is then
developed based on this probability distribution that can be used to monitor the
occurrence of an assignable (and presumably correctable) cause (Woodall and  Adams,
1990).  This tool may focus on attributes or on variables.  Data that arise from the
classification of items into categories are attributes. They are generally measured as
counts (or proportions) of the number of items in a given category. For example, in an
inventory the QC tool could focus  on data entry errors that occur because of incorrect
keying of data; the attribute would be a simple "correct/incorrect." When the data are
actual measurements, estimates, or calculations, the quality tool is based on variables.  If
variables are used, the process might be directed towards the value of input data such as
stack heights, emission rates, or the emissions themselves.

The type of tool used for  statistical quality control is generally some type of control
chart or acceptance sampling. The control chart is probably more suitable for
continuous processes (although data entry errors for large databases could be monitored
using control charts). The concept of acceptance sampling, however, is very similar to
the range check concept that is commonly employed for database QC.  The difference is
that statistical quality control goes  well beyond  what is normally done for inventory


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                                                   CN
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 FIGURE 3.7-5. HISTOGRAM OF Los ANGELES LOG-TRANSFORMED NOX EMISSIONS
                DATA ILLUSTRATING A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION
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range checks in that a target quality level is specified, a statistically valid sampling plan
for the data set is specified in advance, and procedures for dealing with errors are
established ahead of time.

7.3.1  AN EXAMPLE OF ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING BY ATTRIBUTES

One of the most  common QC activities involves verification that data keyed into a
computer database are correct. A state inventory can be very large so that 100 percent
inspection (i.e., checking the data to verify  correctness) is impractical.  The solution is to
sample the database, and only check a specified percentage of the data; however,
determining the sample design and sample  size is not always straightforward.  Generally,
a stratified random sample is recommended.

The first step in designing a statistical random sample is to divide the data into
subcategories.  A point source inventory, for example, may be divided into general data
(company name,  address, owner's name, etc.), location data (UTM coordinates, county,
etc.), stack data,  process data, or other categories.  The importance of these categories
will vary.  Errors in the general data may be of minor consequence, process data may be
critical. The agency should  prioritize the data categories as to importance.  Sample
sizes will depend partly on the importance  of the category.

The next step is to  choose the acceptable level of error. Several statistical OC symbols
and their meaning are defined below (derived from Grant and Leavenworth, 1988):

       N         =   number of items in a given lot or batch.
       n         =   number of items in a sample.
       D         =   number of incorrect items (i.e., data elements not conforming to
                    specifications) in a given database of size N.
       r          =   number of incorrect items (i.e., data elements not conforming to
                    specifications) in a given sample of size n.
       c         =   acceptance number, the maximum allowable number of incorrect
                    items in a sample of size n.
       p         =   fraction incorrect.  In a given database, this is D/N; in a given
                    sample, it is r/n.

In general, the inventory preparers will want to minimize the number of errors, so c=0.
That is, if any incorrect data elements are found in the batch that is inspected, the data
set is unacceptable.  In practice, this means that either:  (1) the  entire data set is
inspected  and incorrect values are  corrected, or (2) the errors in the sample are
corrected  and the sampling/corrected process is repeated until no errors are found in a
sample. The second approach may still allow some errors to remain, but it is  much
more cost-effective  for very large data sets.
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Figure 3.7-6 shows the probability that no errors will be found (i.e., Pa or the probability
of acceptance) for a given sample size (n) from a database of size N = 5,000. The
actual number of incorrect data (D) in the database is shown on the X axis.  The graph
shows that if 100 points are sampled (n = 100) from this data set, there is a 5 percent
(Pa = 0.05) chance of finding no errors when the true error rate is about 160/5,000 or
3.2 percent (p =  0.032).  A larger sample size decreases the probability of accepting a
defective data set.  For example, if n = 500, the probability of accepting a dataset with
p = 0.032 is near zero. Note that this example assumes only one sample will be taken.
Better quality can be attained if the database is repeatedly sampled, inspected, and
corrected until the desired level of quality is attained (discussed further in the next
section).

7.3.2   SPECIFYING A  SAMPLE PLAN

Inventory QA plans often specify a percentage of data elements to be sampled,
incorrectly assuming that the ratio of sample size to data set size is important.
Figure 3.7-7 shows the fallacy of this idea. The curves show that from a quality  control
perspective the absolute size of the sample is more important than its size relative to
that of the data set. Figure 3.7-7 shows four curves for a sampling plan that specifies
10 percent of the inventory be checked.  Note that for a given percent incorrect, the
smaller N is,  the less protection is afforded by using a 10 percent sampling scheme.  For
example, with only 2 percent incorrect, the probability of accepting the  data set  of
N = 1,000 using the  10 percent sampling scheme is around 0.12.  The risk of accepting a
"bad" dataset is even higher for smaller data sets.  This suggests that setting a threshold
sample size may be a better strategy.  For example, the sample design could specify
inspection of data elements for all sources above a certain size,  and then sampling a
percentage of the remainder.  Or, the sample size could be preset at 500 where  N > 500,
and 100 percent sampling if N<500.

The sampling plan design should also specify the criteria for determining an adequate
number of samples. This can be done a priori by specifying the  exact number of
samples. Or, an iterative approach can be used which requires meeting a target level of
quality (or maximum error rate that will be acceptable). For example, the error rate
found in one sample may be used to estimate the overall error rate (the average
outgoing quality or AOQ) as follows:
                                 AOQ = lOOp * P;
                                                 a
where Pa is the probability of acceptance as shown in Figures 3.7-6 and 3.7-7, and
p = r/n. For example, if p = 0.04 and Pa = 0.012, the AOQ = 0.048.  This says that
the estimated error rate in the database is 4.8 percent (or, 4.8 percent of the data
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 FIGURE 3.7-6.  PROBABILITY OF ACCEPTING A DATASET AS ERROR FREE FOR THREE
                          DIFFERENT SAMPLE SIZES
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 elements are likely to be incorrect).  For a more detailed discussion of AOQ and the
 theory behind it, see Grant and Leavenworth, 1988.

 If the AOQ is too high, another sample may be chosen. Again, any errors found are
 corrected, and p, Pa, and AOQ are calculated. This process is repeated until the AOQ
 reaches an acceptable level.  Note that this assumes sampling with replacement; that is,
 each sample is randomly chosen from the entire data set and  may include items
 previously sampled. An alternative approach is to not include previously sampled data
 elements in subsequent samples (i.e., sampling without replacement).  If this approach is
 used, AOQ is calculated by adjusting for the previously checked and corrected data as
 shown:

                                AOQ  = (100-Op * Pa

 where f  = percent  inspected  and corrected.

 The QA program plan should specify the desired AOQs and sample size (n) for each
 subset of the data.  The procedures for sampling should be described in as much detail
 as possible. Calculation of Pa and AOQ values can be easily performed using the SAS
 QC* function PROBHYPR; other statistical QC packages are also available that can
 calculate these terms.

 7.3.3  OUTLIER ANALYSIS:   ACCEPTANCE SAMPLING BY VARIABLES

 Statistically based outlier analysis can be used to check the ranges of specific data and
 flag values that appear to be  in error. This use of statistics to flag outliers is similar to
 the concept of acceptance sampling by variables used in statistical quality control
 programs.  A common approach is to use the mean and two (2sd) or three (3sd)
 standard deviations as the basis for the acceptable range. Although three standard
 deviations is generally used to screen data sets and reject extreme values, for the
 purposes of inventory QC, two standard deviations may be more appropriate.  A large
 proportion of the data flagged using the 2sd test is likely to be correct, but use of the
 3sd test will probably not  detect any errors except the very extreme ones.

 It is important that the expected distribution of the variable being checked is considered
 when setting the acceptance criteria (see discussion above under "Descriptive Statistics").
 If the underlying distribution  is highly skewed  to the right (e.g., lognormal), using the
 arithmetic mean and standard deviation may not be appropriate.  In fact, a random
 sample from a lognormal distribution will tend to  result in a large standard deviation,
 often exceeding the mean. Adding 2sd or even 3sd to the mean may still fall short of
 the possible range of values at the high end; subtracting 2sd may result in a negative
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number. Thus, the range check will not detect any values too small (assuming the real
data set is always positive), and will flag too many "errors" at the high end.

Four different methods can be  used to deal with this problem.  The first is simply not to
rely on statistical procedures for range checks. Engineering judgment can be used to set
an appropriate upper and lower bound for each variable.  This  method will work
reasonably well assuming that all the variables in the data set are sufficiently
understood, and that the "true"  range and distribution of the data do not change
appreciably between years or geographic regions.

The second approach is to calculate the mean or other statistics using the  method that is
appropriate for the specific distribution.  The greatest advantage of this approach is that
it is more likely that errors will be detected, and it reduces the  likelihood  that correct
values will be flagged. The problem with this method is that it  requires more
information and work to set up the appropriate criteria; it also  assumes that the correct
underlying distribution can be identified which is often not the case.

The third approach is to use the arithmetic mean and standard  deviation of the
transformed (and normalized) data. For example, the natural log of the data may more
closely follow a normal distribution.  If this method is used, the transformed data should
be tested using a test for normality to determine if the transformation has had the
desired effect. Data must be transformed back to their original form after the analysis
is complete  (Table 3.7-3 gave examples of transformations).

Assuming that the data are reasonably normal, the outlier test may be made with or
without reference to a pre-determined  "correct" value.  An example of the latter was
given in the first paragraph of this section. If the data are normally distributed,
68 percent of the data will fall  within  Isd of the  mean; 95 percent, 2sd; and 99 percent,
3sd. If more than 1 percent of the data are greater than 3sd away from the mean, these
data are suspect.

Of course, the data may be internally consistent  (and normally distributed) but still
incorrect. Comparison to a reference value should be used as a check. The reference
value may be based on a different data set; for example, the distribution of stack heights
may be taken from a  national inventory and used as the reference distribution for a
county- or state-level  dataset. Or, the reference  value may be based on previous
inventories in the region, or based on engineering judgment. Typically, the mean value
of the variable is compared to an expected mean using a t-test.
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 The t-statistic is calculated as:
 where:
       t      =     the calculated test statistic;

       x      =     the mean of the test data set;
       u      =     the preestablished mean (or reference value);
       s      =     the test data set standard deviation; and
       n      =     the number of data values used to calculate the test data set mean
                    and standard deviation.

 Assuming that the data  are normally distributed, the distribution of the test statistic
 follows the Student's t distribution.  The t value can be compared to a statistical table of
 values generated for the Student's  t distribution for various sample sizes and levels of
 significance.  The various sample sizes within a Student's t distribution table are referred
 to as the degrees of freedom. The number of degrees of freedom is equal to the sample
 size (in this case,  the number of values in the  data set) minus one.  If the absolute value
 of the test statistic is greater than the value  in the Student's t distribution table for a
 specified level of  significance and degrees of freedom, the conclusion would be that  the
 calculated average value is significantly different than the number entered into the
 average value field. If this is the case, the data must be examined in greater detail to
 determine if the data are in error,  or if the preestablished value entered into the
 average value field should be changed.

 The fourth approach is to use  nonparametric methods to evaluate the data.
 Nonparametric methods make no assumptions regarding the distribution of the data; the
 sample median, rather than the mean, is used  as the basis for testing.  A sign test can be
 used to test whether the median of the data is significantly different  than a
 preestablished median.  The preestablished median is first subtracted from the values of
 every data point in the sample, and the total number of positive values (a) and negative
 values (b) are recorded. Any zero differences are omitted from the  test. The test
 statistic is:

                                  ,  _ (|a-b|  - I)2
                                             n
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where:
       X2     =     the test statistic;
       a     =     the total number of positive values;
       b     =     the total number of negative values; and
       n     =     a + b.

The test statistic follows a Chi-square distribution with one degree of freedom.  The
value of the test statistic can be compared to a table of values for the Chi-square
distribution at various significance levels. If the test statistic is larger than the tabular
value, the conclusion is that the sample median is significantly different from the
preestablished median.

If the total number of positive and negative differences is larger than 25, a normal
approximation to the binomial distribution must be used:

                                     _  a - 0.5n
                                         0.5

This test statistic (Z) can be compared with the value in a normal distribution table for
a selected level of significance.

7.4 STATISTICAL PROCEDURES FOR COMPARABILITY  ANALYSIS

Summary statistics are most useful for comparing inventories.  Although statistical
measures are often used as the basis for comparisons, any decisions made or conclusions
drawn from these statistics are usually subjective. That is, the reviewer will compare
means, plot emissions versus a variable thought to be correlated with emissions, or
evaluate correlations between variables.  The reviewer then decides (using his or her
own unwritten criteria) that the data are "different" or "reasonably similar."  No
published references were found that indicate hypothesis testing has been used to
determine if two data sets (or inventories) are significantly different, although this
method may be appropriate for certain types of analyses.

The types of comparisons most commonly used include:

      •      Comparisons between inventories;

                   between years (same region)
                   between regions (same  year)

      •      Comparisons to a reference distribution;
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                    between a region and a larger geographic area (such as state to
                    national)

       •     Comparisons of emissions to a surrogate with an expected predicted
             relationship (e.g., plot of on-road emissions vs. VMT).

 All of the above are useful for the evaluation of inventories; however, their uses strictly
 for QA/QC need to be considered very carefully.  As with other forms of reality checks,
 differences  between two statistical measures do not necessarily mean an error has
 occurred; similarly, errors will not always be obvious when using this method.

 In most cases, an informal comparison of the statistics is sufficient.  Often the
 differences  are so obvious as to need to no further statistical analysis; emissions from
 one inventory may be consistently higher  or lower than the other (i.e., biased) and the
 reasons are easily traced to differences in methods or assumptions  used.  Biases in
 inventory data may occur if different methods, factors, activity data, or assumptions are
 used; within a state (or region), consistent approaches will minimize the occurrence of
 this type of bias (see Chapter 2, Planning and Documentation).  However, if inventories
 prepared by different people and/or for different geographic entities are compared,
 consistency  in approaches cannot be assumed (and is not very likely).

 Differences between inventories cannot be assumed to be the result of errors; for
 example, suppose that evaporative emissions from gasoline marketing are consistently
 higher (when expressed on a per gallon basis) in two  inventories.  The QA reviewer
 should  first  determine if there is a reasonable explanation for the apparent  bias.  One
 state may have implemented Stage I and/or Stage II controls resulting in lower
 emissions.   It is  best when conducting a statistical  comparison for QA purposes to first
 remove all the assignable causes of variation. For example, comparisons  of uncontrolled
 emissions might be a better way of detecting possible errors for the gasoline marketing
 example. Any differences in emissions are more likely to be due to inconsistences or
 errors in the underlying calculations.

 When visual inspections do not reveal any obvious differences, it is generally harder to
 conclude that  the data are correct.  Most inventory analysts feel that the uncertainty of
 emission estimates is too high to allow conclusions to be drawn when small  differences
 between emissions are seen.  In this case, the use of statistical tests to detect differences
 can be of use. The t-test or sign test described in  the previous section can be used to
 determine if there are statistical differences between inventory data if two data sets are
 being compared.  If more than two data sets are being tested, an analysis of variance
 (ANOVA) can be used for normally-distributed data, or the nonparametric  Kruskal-
 Wallis test should be used if assumptions  of normality can be met.
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7.5  EXAMPLE OF A STATISTICALLY BASED COMPARABILITY
      ANALYSIS:   REGRESSION MODEL USING DUMMY VARIABLES

When preparing an inventory, it is sometimes necessary to evaluate data prepared by
another expert or agency. A common example is found in the development of onroad
mobile source emissions; VMT estimates are often done by experts outside the agency
preparing the inventory. In this example from North Carolina, the state's department of
transportation (DOT)  supplied a database  of VMT by county over an eight-year period.
The inventory analyst at the NC DEHNR had several objectives for this analysis:
(1) assess the reasonableness of the estimates, (2)  check for any errors in the data, and
(3) develop a model to be used for projections of VMT in the future.  The method used
was to develop a regression model using dummy variables.  Dummy variables,
sometimes called zero-one variables, have a value  of one when the characteristic being
described is present in an observation or is set equal to zero otherwise.

Seven North Carolina  counties, within three ozone maintenance areas, were chosen for
this analysis to illustrate one method that may be used to separate the distinctive
intercept and slopes associated with reported VMT.  A dummy variable was constructed
for each county which  has the effect of shifting the intercept term. In addition, groups
of counties  in the  TRIANGLE (Durham and Wake), or the TRIAD (Davidson, Forsyth
and Guilford) were coded to distinguish  those observations from the remaining base
group around CHARLOTTE (Gaston and  Mecklenburg).  These TRIANGLE and
TRIAD dummy variables were then multiplied by  the trend variable TIME to create a
slope shifting effect between these areas.

The basic method for projecting VMT involves linear trend extrapolation using each
separate county VMT  over the eight year period. Visually checking this combined data
for possible errors would be difficult, but there may be advantages to looking at all the
counties together or "pooled," for the purpose of comparing growth rates between the
three specific areas of  the state. If the model, as constructed, can account for a large
percentage  in the  variability, then the residual or difference between the reported VMT
value and the predicted value from the model can be used to indicate possible errors.

Figure 3.7-8 shows a graph of all reported VMT values versus the predicted values from
this model.  Visual inspection of the plot revealed a possible keying error from Durham
County in 1988 (open circle on the figure).  The originator of the  data set was
contacted, and confirmed that this value was incorrect. The value was corrected and the
regression was recalculated. This graph  can also be used to perform other types of QA
checks.  For example, the relative ranks  and slopes of the county-level data can be
compared as a type of reality check (see Section 1).  The reviewer might look at the
population of each county, the miles of different road types, and other factors that
presumably affect  VMT to determine if they are consistent with the pattern seen in the
data.

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 I]
      1987
                      1989
                                       1991
                                                       1993
                                                                        199!
      FIGURE 3.7-8.  GRAPHICAL COMPARISON OF REPORTED AND PREDICTED
                               VMT VALUES
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                                   TABLE 3.7-5

   RESULTS OF DUMMY VARIABLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF COUNTY VMT DATA
X Variable Name
Time
Davidson
Durham
Forsyth
Gaston
Guilford
Mecklenburg
Wake
Time* Triad
Time* Triangle
X Coefficient(s)
273.3
2388.6
3839.8
5710.5
2744.9
7683.4
9677.4
9772.8
-100.1
-38.2
Standard Error of
Coefficient
52.54
277.00
250.60
227.00
250.60
227.00
250.60
250.60
67.83
74.30
T Statistic
5.20
10.52
15.32
25.16
10.95
33.85
38.62
39.00
-1.48
-0.51
The regression results can be interpreted around the base case of what is occurring in
the Charlotte area.  The t-statistic (shown in Table 3.7-5) can be used to determine the
significance of including each trend or dummy variable in the model.  A general rule for
evaluating the t-test is that an absolute value greater than two is significant at the
0.95 confidence level. The model suppresses the normal calculation of an intercept
term by assigning each intercept a shifting county dummy variable. These were all
highly significant, which indicates that the initial VMT levels between counties are
different.  The CHARLOTTE area growth trend variable coefficient (time) of 273.3
equals the VMT increases each year and was quite significant for the base case.  The
slope shift trend for the TRIAD was -100.1, which means that for those three counties
the annual growth in VMT was only 173.2, with a t-test value of -1.48 indicating a mildly
significant shift.  In comparison, the slope shift value of -38.2 for the TRIANGLE
counties had a low t-statistic value of only -0.51. This result may be interpreted to mean
that while the annual growth  of 235.1 in VMT for the TRIANGLE is smaller than the
Charlotte area, it should not be considered as significantly different.
3.7-32
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This type of analysis may be used by the inventory developer and cited as the basis for
any assumptions subsequently used to develop the inventory. For example, the
inventory developer may argue that one growth factor can be applied to all counties
except those in the TRIAD, and cite this analysis as the basis for that assertion.
Alternatively, the peer reviewer (or technical auditor) may perform this type  of analysis
to test the validity of an assumption used to develop an inventory. If, for example, the
project inventory had been prepared using one growth factor for all counties, the peer
reviewer might challenge that based on these results.
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                        This page is intentionally left blank.
3.7.34                                                                  EllP Volume VI

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 8
 INDEPENDENT  AUDITS
 QUICK REVIEW

       Definition:

       Objective:


       Optimal usage:
       Minimum expertise
       required:
       Advantages:
       Limitations:
A systematic evaluation to determine the quality
of a function or activity.
Ensure that adequate quality control measures are
planned and implemented to help develop a
complete and accurate inventory.
At critical steps in the inventory development
process that could affect the accuracy and
completeness of the emissions data.
Moderate to high technical and auditing
experience.  Auditors should have audit experience
and be able to comprehend the technical process
and assess whether approved procedures are
followed. An audit team of technical and quality
professionals may be required for more
complicated inventories.
(1) Help provide confidence in the accuracy and
completeness of the emissions results, (2) provide
an objective assessment of the effectiveness of the
quality control (QC) measures implemented by the
emissions inventory development team, and
(3) foster continuous improvement in the inventory
development process.
(1) Additional staff and funds may be needed to
conduct independent audits, and (2) may add to
the time required to complete the inventory.
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8.1  OVERVIEW  OF  METHOD

Audits are managerial tools used to evaluate how effectively the emission inventory
team complies with predetermined specifications for developing an accurate and
complete inventory.  As discussed in Chapter 1 of this volume, the EIIP's mission is to
develop guidance to improve the emission inventory development process.  The
development of quality programs, as discussed in Chapter 2, is encouraged to establish
effective procedures and standards to increase data quality.  After implementing these
procedures,  audits are conducted to determine whether the procedures are  effective and
whether  additional QC is needed to improve the (procedures and hopefully cut the costs
associated with inventory development).

Specifically, audits are managerial tools used to:

      •      Identify staffing problems, particularly areas where understaffing or
             inadequately trained staff may adversely affect quality;

      •      Evaluate the effectiveness of the technical and quality procedures used to
             develop the emissions data;

      •      Help ensure the completeness and accuracy of the emissions data;

      •      Determine whether data quality objectives are being met;

      •      Determine the need for additional QC measures; and

      •      Streamline the costs associated with the inventory development  activities.

The overall  goal of the audit program is continuous improvement in the performance of
people, processes, and systems.  When continuous improvement becomes a  reality, more
efficient  methods are incorporated, data quality improves, and costs are reduced.

A good audit program is one of the key elements of an effective quality program
because it helps to identify the sources of errors and ensures that corrective actions are
taken to  eliminate them.  Because of the importance of the audit to continuous
improvement of emissions data, audit planning must be conducted along with the
technical plans for inventory development. Quality personnel must be familiar with the
critical elements of a good audit program and the types of audits that can be  conducted
to help meet the data quality objectives established for the  emissions data.
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 The purpose of this section of Chapter 3 is to provide information about:

       •     The elements of a good audit program;

       •     The types of audits that can be conducted; and

       •     Preferred and alternative audit methods that can be implemented.

 This information should then be used to design an audit program that ensures the
 development of continuous improvement in your emissions inventory data.

 8.1.1  ADEQUATE TRAINING

 Auditors must be adequately  trained, have good communication skills, and be able to
 foster good team relationships with the inventory development team members to
 develop a successful audit program. They must understand the technical aspects of the
 work and have auditing experience in order to identify sources of quality concerns and
 make reasonable recommendations for corrective actions (RCAs).  When the technical
 work is very complex, an audit team of quality professionals and technical experts may
 be needed.  Whatever the make up of the  audit team, the members of the audit team
 must have sufficient training to understand the data and inventory procedures used to
 estimate emissions.

 In order to  intelligently discuss  the inventory procedures, evaluate the appropriateness
 of the procedures, and develop a written document that clearly identifies the findings
 and RCAs,  good  communication skills as well as technical experience are needed.  The
 auditor must be able to objectively identify the deficiencies and communicate the RCAs
 in a "constructive" manner, while maintaining good team relationships.  This is not an
 easy task, but it should always be the auditor's goal.  If good team relationships are not
 built, communication of concerns that arise during the development of the emissions
 data are often not shared with the auditors and a true picture  of how well or poorly the
 work is progressing may never be attained.

 The auditor should never be viewed as an inspector who legislates rules and regulations
 for doing work; instead the auditor must be viewed as an inventory development team
 member who wants to  help save time, improve procedures, communicate the need for
 additional support and resources to management, as well as improve the effectiveness of
 the systems  and quality of the data.  The inventory development team must feel that the
 goal of the auditor is to "help" rather than "hinder" their efforts to achieve the common
 goal of developing a complete and accurate inventory.
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8.1.2 MANAGERIAL SUPPORT

Without senior managerial support, the audit program is doomed!  Who will provide the
equipment and people required to do the work?  Who will see to it that the actions
requested to address the quality concerns found during the audits are taken?  Who will
approve the audit program?

Before beginning any quality program, senior management must agree that the audit
program is needed, support the efforts of the auditor in developing the program, and
approve the program prior to its implementation.  If these steps are not followed, the
auditor will have no recourse if a team member or inventory development manager
decides to not act upon the RCAs.  Therefore, the auditor works closely with senior
management to develop quality procedures and programs that are  sufficiently funded
and include measures that are agreed upon to be needed to achieve an accurate and
complete emissions inventory.  The position of senior management (see Ron McKernan)
in the organization could  be  as presented in the example organization chart included as
Figure 3.8-1.

8.1.3 GOOD PLANNING

The auditor must adequately plan the audit activities in order for them to be successful.
This planning should at least include the following:

      •      Reviewing the inventory work plan and QAP;

      •      Reviewing technical procedures that are critical to the technical soundness,
             completeness, and accuracy of the emissions inventory;

      •      Identifying the  key steps in the inventory development process that will
             affect its completeness and accuracy;

      •      Reviewing the results from previous audits (if any);

      •      Developing an  audit checklist that will help to provide  a thorough review
             of applicable systems  and data; and

      •      Developing an  audit schedule that includes auditing as many of the critical
             phases  of the inventory development process as possible.

The first documents to review when preparing  for the audit are the work plan and QAP.
These documents provide the scope of work and identify the technical procedures to be
followed.  In addition, the QAP describes the approved QA/QC procedures to be used.
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                                                 CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS



































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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS                                                 6/12/97
The QAP is usually developed with the assistance of the auditor to ensure that there is
agreement concerning the level of  QA/QC required to achieve the technical and data
quality objectives.

As a result of previous experience auditing similar inventory development activities, an
experienced auditor may help identify steps in the inventory development and reporting
processes where additional QA/QC may be helpful.  He or she may help define more
realistic data quality objectives because trends may have been revealed during previous
reviews of historical data.  In addition, if data completeness and accuracy were the
primary concerns during reviews of previous data, additional QA/QC may be
recommended during the development of the data collection, management, and
technical review procedures.

During the review of the work plan and QAP, the auditor should answer the questions
listed below:

      •      Were the work plan and QAP approved by the appropriate personnel?

      •      Were the EPA requirements for developing the work plan and QAP met?

      •      Are there a sufficient number of experienced personnel to develop the
             inventory within the agreed  upon time frame?

      •      Are the responsibilities  of key personnel identified?

      •      Will the work be adequately supervised?

      •      Is the  objective of the work clearly stated along with the objectives for
             data quality?

      •      Is the  technical approach sound?

      •      Are the procedures for  documenting, maintaining, and storing data
             described?

      •      Are the federal/state requirements for developing the inventory discussed
             along with the procedures to be followed to achieve them?

      •      Are the reporting requirements described?

      •      Are milestones identified to help meet the deadline established for
             completing the inventory?
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       •     Is the budget mentioned and is it adequate for the work projected?

       •     Are adequate QA/QC measures described (internal and external)?

Deficiencies found during the review of these documents are documented and brought
to the attention of the manager of the inventory development activities as soon as
possible.

In addition to the planning documents, the auditor may also review technical standard
operating procedures (SOPs) and user's manuals which describe how the data will be
gathered, the technical procedures for calculating emissions, and the reporting guidelines
(an example is included in Figure 3.8-2). The auditor should look  for completeness
goals when determining the sources of emissions and a sound technical approach to
calculating emissions results.  Good SOPs are needed to provide consistency in the
approach to gathering data, reviewing it, and developing emissions  results.  Standard
operating procedures are more commonly used in emissions measurement programs;
however, written procedures for gathering and using data for emissions inventories are
also recommended (see Chapter 2).

The auditor should consider personnel training and supervision of inventory
development activities as two  of the  most important steps in the development of a
complete, accurate, and technically sound inventory.  Therefore, the organization of the
inventory development team and experience of the team members  should be reviewed
after a basic understanding of the scope of the work and technical  expertise required  to
prepare the inventory is developed.

Adequate training can also be evaluated during the personnel interviews or audits.  This
evaluation could include the review of personnel training records for evidence of related
experience. If deficiencies are found, plans should be made to provide training prior  to
or during the inventory development process. There should also be evidence of
sufficient senior personnel supervision of employees who are less experienced  and are
being trained to perform inventory development activities.

If previous audits were conducted, the results from these audits are reviewed to
determine the quality issues that were identified and  actions recommended to eliminate
them.  The  corrective action plan should be a topic of discussion during the audit and, if
needed, follow-up activities should be conducted.

After reviewing  all of the documents that will help provide a thorough overview of the
inventory process, the auditor  determines which systems and procedures are key to the
successful development of a complete and accurate inventory.  These critical procedures
and systems will at least include an assessment of the management/supervision of the
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                     KEY ELEMENTS OF DATABASE USE AND OPERATION

        1.      The system sets up the required data screens for the type of inventory to be
                developed.

        2.      The initials of the operator and the date are attached to each added or updated
                Held.

        3.      The desired area or geographical locations can be selected.

        4.      For point sources, detailed source information module is used rather than the
                general module to allow the inclusion of small plant VOC emissions values during
                summary calculations on a county or grid level.  Emissions for remaining point
                source categories can be added manually.

        5.      A calculator is available on line.

        6.      The system screens each data field (length, type of characters) prior to accepting
                the data added or edited.

        7.      Each field has a help screen or look-up table (SC Codes, SIC Codes, emissions
                estimate methods, pollutants, etc.).

        8.      When data are deleted, all the relative data associated with that key field are
                deleted to avoid the existence of orphan data.  The data deleted are retained in
                the systems utility area until a request for removal is received. The data held in
                the utilities part of the system are not used for summaries or  calculations.

        9.      Nonbanked annual emissions, ozone seasonal daily emissions, and carbon
                monoxide daily emissions can be calculated. If the required data are included,
                carbon monoxide seasonal calculations can be  adjusted to daily rather than 8 hour
                periods.

        10.      When data are ready for transportation, transaction files are created. Data are
                edited prior to transport.  If the required data are not available or in the correct
                format, error codes or messages will be printed to the screen. All corrections
                must be eliminated prior to transport.

        11.      The screening or validation conducted during data editing includes 1) checking the
                field length and data type (numeric or alpha-numeric) and 2)  comparing entries
                against look-up tables.
          FIGURE 3.8-2.  KEY ELEMENTS OF DATABASE USE AND OPERATION

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work, inventory development plans, data gathering activities, completeness checking,
data documentation procedures, procedures used to identify emission sources, methods
used to calculate emissions, QC measures, and reporting requirements.  Questions
concerning these critical phases in the inventory development procedures are then
included in an audit checklist.  Critical phases in the inventory development process may
be determined by examining the example Information Flow Chart, shown in
Figure 3.8-3.  This chart shows data gathering, information flow, and QC activities for a
typical inventory development process.  Any place where QC activities are indicated are
also appropriate places for QA audits.  In addition, a total systems audit would cover all
activities shown as well as planning activities (not shown).  An audit of the software and
hardware to be used should be done prior to input of significant amounts of data.
Other audits might be done after the report is prepared to validate the emissions
estimate generated.

The checklist is the primary audit tool used by the auditor to help prioritize the audit
activities so that the most important phases of the inventory process are  evaluated first.
Space should be provided on the checklist to record the findings during the audit;
however, additional  notes may be taken.  The checklist is retained and becomes part of
the records maintained by the auditor.  Because the notes are used to generate the audit
report, the auditor should record the findings as legibly and thoroughly as possible.

Four checklists are included as appendices to this volume to provide examples of the
approaches an auditor could take when evaluating critical phases of emissions
inventories.  The questions to consider during the evaluation of the effectiveness of the
QC program associated with these critical phases also provide examples of the level of
detail in each audit. These questions are based on the procedural and quality
requirements included in the inventory work plan and QAP,

After developing the checklist(s) that include(s) questions relative to each critical phase
of the inventory process to be audited, the auditor determines the frequency of the
audits and when they will occur.  The available resources often dictate the frequency of
these audits; therefore, the audit schedule should be discussed with the inventory
development manager prior to establishing the budget. The auditor should request
sufficient funds to provide the oversight needed to achieve the data quality objectives
established for the work.

Audits should be conducted throughout the development of the inventory so that
deficiencies in the QC program are identified and corrected as soon as possible.
Planning the audits in this manner will also foster continuous improvement of the
accuracy of the data as the inventory is developed.  It is recommended that the audits
be conducted at least during the planning stages, during the collection of the data,
during the development of the emissions estimates, and after the draft of the inventory
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             POINT SOURCES:
             Facility survey data
    AREA SOURCES:
Survey of sample of facilities
 AREA. MOBILE SOURCES:
Compile data from references,
 other agencies, databases
             Contact appropriate
              person to obtain
             Information needed
    QC review of data:
 representative, accurate,
appropriate for methodology,
    correct scale/year?
                                    yes
                                          QC data, methods,
                                           calculations, etc.
                                     Run emissions modete,
                                     prepare data for entry
                                   to database, spreadsheets
                                                          yes
                                            Input data in
                                         emissions inventory
                                         database, repository,
                                        or other central system
                    FIGURE  3.8-3.  EXAMPLE INFORMATION  FLOW CHART
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 is generated.  This schedule will provide an assessment of the adequacy of the
 development activities and QC procedures associated with the most critical phases of
 the work.

 As the schedule develops, the auditor must also determine what type of audit is
 appropriate to conduct.  The auditor may conduct a management systems audit (MSA),
 technical systems audit (TSA), performance evaluation audit  (PEA), audit of data
 quality objectives (DQA), or a data/report audit (DRA).  The audit type selected
 depends on the objective of the assessment (see Table 3.8-1).

 8.1.4 EFFECTIVE AUDIT PROCEDURES

 In order to efficiently use the auditor's time and the time of the inventory development
 personnel, the auditor should communicate his/her intentions to conduct the audit and
 hold meetings  prior to and after the audit to discuss the audit activities and  findings.
 During each of these steps, notes should be taken to record the information gathered so
 it can be used  to generate the audit report.

 The following guidance on effective audit procedures is applicable to all types of audits.
 However, the relative importance of each step discussed below may vary depending on
 the type of audit.

 Notice of Intent

 Approximately one week prior to conducting a systems audit, the auditor should forward
 a notice of intent to conduct the audit to the inventory development manager.  The
 notice should at least include the following:

       •     Objective(s) of the audit;

       •     Proposed date of the  audit;

       •     System(s) or data to be audited;

       •     Proposed schedule of audit activities; and

       •     Names of the persons to be interviewed.

 This notice helps to ensure that the personnel involved in the critical phases of the
 inventory process will be available.  The schedule of activities will allow the  inventory
 development personnel to plan their activities so that the audit will not interfere with
 the progression of inventory development activities any more  than is absolutely
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                                   TABLE 3.8-1
                     OBJECTIVES OF DIFFERENT AUDIT TYPES'
Audit Type
Management Systems
Technical Systems
Performance Evaluation
Data/Report
Data Quality
Objective
Determine the appropriateness of the management and
supervision of inventory development activities and
training of inventory developers.
Determine the technical soundness, effectiveness, and
efficiency of the procedures used to gather data and
calculate emission results.
Determine whether the equipment used to collect
measurement data operates within acceptable limits.
Determine whether the results reported accurately
reflect the emission results calculated and recorded in
the supportive data.
Determine the accuracy and completeness of the data
used to develop the emission results.
aSee Section 8.2 for more detailed information about these types of audits.

necessary. Identifying the data that will be reviewed also helps save time by allowing
the inventory personnel to gather the data and have it available at the time of the audit.

Opening Meeting

At the start of the audit, the auditor holds an opening meeting to discuss the audit
plans.  During the meeting, the inventory development personnel are introduced to the
auditor by the inventory development manager. One week prior to the audit, the
inventory development manager may also be asked to provide a brief summary of the
inventory development activities so that the auditor knows the status of the development
of the inventory prior to conducting the audit.  The status of the work may be updated
during the opening meeting. The auditor briefly summarizes the intent of the audit and
audit schedule. If needed, changes in the audit schedule may occur to ensure that the
auditor is able to interview as many of the key personnel as possible. The  auditor also
informs the personnel attending the meeting of the proposed date/time of  the wrap-up
meeting, which is held after the audit.
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 Conduct of the Audit

 After the opening meeting, the audit begins. The most effective approach is to follow
 the natural progression of inventory development:  data collection, data evaluation,
 emission calculation/estimation, and emission results generation.  This sequence of
 events should take the auditor through the critical steps of the inventory process that
 were identified when reviewing the planning documents and approved procedures.  At
 each step, the  auditor discusses the work with the personnel actually conducting it.

 During the interviews or discussions with the inventory development personnel, the
 auditor asks questions about the systems and data evaluated and compares the answers
 to the information included in the procedures reviewed during the planning stage of the
 audit. If approved procedures are not followed, the auditor identifies these occurrences
 as quality concerns or findings. If responses to procedural questions suggest that
 personnel training is insufficient, training records may be evaluated to determine if
 personnel training is a quality  concern that may impact data quality.

 Likewise, the auditor must consider the operability and ease of use of all instruments
 used to conduct any of the inventory development activities.  This  is usually not a
 concern for inventories developed by an agency using primarily facility data and the
 emission factor approaches.  However, a facility's inventory could  involve the use of
 measured emissions. For example, if the audit includes an evaluation of continuous
 emissions monitoring of stack emissions, the operation, calibration, and maintenance of
 the equipment should be evaluated. Equipment maintenance  logs should be reviewed to
 determine if there are recurring problems that could adversely affect the results. After
 reviewing these records, interviewing the operators, and determining that the operability
 of the measuring equipment or computers used to calculate emissions is questionable, it
 should be noted as a finding.

 The auditor should plan to spend as much time as possible tracking the receipt,
 maintenance, and retention of the data gathered and used to estimate/calculate
 emissions.  Some of the major quality concerns found when evaluating emissions data
 are the lack of sufficient information to verify the accuracy of the  emissions results, poor
 documentation of the supporting data, and the absence of good data management
 practices. Key questions to ask during the audit to determine  the  appropriateness of
 these practices are included in Figure 3.8-4.

 As the audit is conducted,  the auditor documents the findings  on the checklist or in a
 bound notebook. The notes should be legible and written in sufficient detail to
 facilitate their use during the development of the audit report, indicate the date the
 notes were recorded, and include a signature line.  The auditor looks for opportunities
 to praise systems that are working well and personnel who appear  to be taking extra
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Concerns
Are the data from the appropriate year?
Are all of the emission sources identified?
Is all of the information needed to calculate the
emissions results available?
Are data documented in a manner that will not lead
to misinterpretation of the information (e.g., crossing
out and obscuring data when making corrections?)
Are data retained in an easily retrieved manner and
controlled so that its location is always known?
Is black ink used to record data to help reduce the
possibility of data loss when there is a need for
reproductions?
Are the procedures used to electronically calculate
values clearly explained and are the results
reproducible?
Are the calculated values verified by someone other
than the generator?
Are unit conversions accurate?
Are the emissions results in the specified units?
Is the technical approach as indicated in the work
plan?
Yes











No











Comments











Auditor:
Date:


                 FIGURE 3.8-4.  EXAMPLE DATA AUDIT CHECKLIST


steps to control the quality and accuracy of the data since positive feed-back as well as
RCAs should be included in the audit report.

Wrap-up Meeting

Wrap-up Meetings are held after the audit to discuss the findings and any other
information that may be pertinent for the  auditor to know prior to writing the audit
report.  This preliminary discussion of the audit findings allows immediate
communication of findings that are considered adverse to data quality so that actions
can be taken immediately to eliminate them.
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The wrap-up meeting is often attended by more personnel than are usually present at
the opening meeting. Those personnel interviewed or involved in inventory
development activities during the audit may attend this meeting to get immediate feed-
back on the audit findings. Senior management may also attend this meeting to get first
hand information about the requests for corrective actions and effectiveness of the QC
program implemented by the inventory development team.

The auditor should request sufficient time before the meeting to review the notes taken
and summarize the audit findings. The goal of the auditor during this meeting is to
ensure that the inventory personnel agree that the findings are legitimate  concerns that
require resolution  or corrective actions.  The audit findings should be clearly stated
along with the impact they may have on the development of a complete and accurate
emissions inventory. If additional information can be provided to clarify the auditor's
perspective on an issue, it is provided at this time or arrangements are made to provide
it soon after the meeting.

8.1.5 AUDIT REPORT

The audit report should be clearly written and distributed to the supervisor/manager of
the inventory development activities and the key personnel involved in the audit as soon
as possible, but no later than two weeks after the audit. Examples should be given of
data, procedures, or systems that are found to be deficient, incomplete, or inaccurate.
Examples should also be given of systems that work well and personnel that are doing
an exceptional job.

The following information is included in the audit report:

       •      Identification of the auditor;

       •      Date of the audit;

       •      Facility or location of the audit;

       •      Objective of the audit;

       •      Descriptions of the system(s), data, procedures audited;

       •      Names of the persons interviewed;

       •      Findings (positive feed-back and RCAs); and

       •      Discussion of follow-up activities that relate to previous audits.


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An example audit report is included as Appendix A.

The auditor's goal when reporting an issue found during an audit is to clearly state the
concern, the potential impact on the emissions inventory results, and propose a solution
or RCA to eliminate the concern.  The RCAs should be accompanied by a description
of the situation that led to them along with a possible solution to eliminate the quality
concern.

For example, if the data for one source was missing, the auditor would indicate that the
absence of this information would lead to an incomplete inventory or failure to meet the
data quality objective for completeness for a given source. The recommendation could
be to use engineering judgment or previous data to estimate the omitted data and flag
the results  as estimations. The inventory report should include an explanation for
reporting estimations rather than results that are based on actual test data.

On the  other hand, if an instrument was found to not be appropriately calibrated or
tested, or an emissions estimation software system has not been adequately QA'd, the
auditor could state that there is a potential for the emissions results developed from this
data to  be  inaccurate.  The recommendation could be to qualify or flag the results based
on these data to show that they are estimated values because the instrument was not
properly tested prior to gathering the supportive data. The auditor could ask the team
to evaluate the possible degree of inaccuracy that would be associated with both sets of
data given  in the examples.

The example included as Figure 3.8-5 could be used to record the RCA and  maintain
records of  the actions taken in response to it. Note that the resolution includes a
planned corrective action, identification of the person proposing the action, proposed
date of the action, and a description of the action taken.

Follow-up Activities

The auditor must assure that actions are  taken in response to the audit findings and that
these actions adequately address the quality issues cited in the audit report.  Conducting
these follow-up activities and determining the recurrence of quality issues are the basis
for continuous improvement.

Categorizing the findings helps to identify trends.  Trends in the occurrence of quality
issues can be used to identify systems that may required additional QA/QC.  To
promote continuous improvement, the auditor may conduct more system specific audits
to determine why the applicable procedures are not producing the desired results.
Recommendations can then be made to improve the  effectiveness and efficiency of the
procedures.
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                 CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
                     RECOMMENDATION FOR CORRECTIVE ACTION
     A. Initial Information
     RCA NO:
                       DATE:
     ORIGINATOR:
                                  APPROVED BY:
     ORGANIZATION/INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTION:
            URGENCY LEVEL D

t. Potential for major data loss or information.
2. Potential for failure to achieve data quality objective.
3. Suggested improvement.
     B.  Problem Identification
     SITE/LAB:
                                                  SYSTEM:
                                                                         DATE PROBLEM IDENTIFIED:
     DESCRIPTION OF PROBLEM:
     C. Recommended Corrective Action
     DESCRIPTION:
                                                                         IMPLEMENT BY:
     D.  Problem Resolution
     PLANNED CORRECTIVE
     ACTION:
                       PROPOSED BY:
                                                 DATE PROPOSED:
                                                                         SCHEDULE IMPLEMENTATION:
     IMPLEMENTED CORRECTIVE ACTIONS:
                                                                         DATE IMPLEMENTED:
    E.  QA Verification
    VERIFIED BY:
                                          DATE:    COMMENTS:
              FIGURE 3.8-5.  RECOMMENDATION FOR CORRECTIVE ACTION

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The responses from the inventory development manager concerning the RCAs should
include a description of the actions to be taken, identification of the responsible person,
and date of implementation. The auditor keeps track of the responses to the audit
findings to ensure that they are adequate to eliminate the concerns identified and are
implemented within a reasonable time.  The time between acknowledgement of the
concern and implementation of the action should be based on the severity of the impact
on data quality.  If there is a possibility that the objective  of the inventory will not be
met or other data are impacted, actions should be taken immediately to eliminate the
concern.  If new procedures are to be developed or systems revised, but the concern
only has the "potential" to adversely impact data quality, the auditor may agree to a
longer period between the reporting of the RCA and implementation actions taken in
response to it. Regardless of the time interval between the request and implementation
of corrective  actions, the auditor's job is not done until the quality concern is eliminated.
This closure of the issue and frequent audits are the keys  to the development of an
accurate and complete emissions inventory.

Record Keeping

The auditor should keep all notes taken and information gathered during the audit to
provide the supportive data needed to verify the information included in the audit
report. A data file should be developed that at least includes the completed audit
checklist, notes taken during the audit, technical planning documents that described the
objectives of the work and approved procedures, the audit report, and descriptions of
actions taken in  response to the RCAs.

The records maintained by the auditor are used to monitor the  quality of the work
during the  development of the inventory.  Categorizing the findings helps to  identify
weaknesses in the QC program. This information is also used to plan other  audits of
systems or  data that will help monitor the activities until the number of deficiencies or
concerns found during the audit cease to exist or  decrease to a  reasonable level.

8.2   TYPES OF AUDITS

The preceding description of an audit assumes the conduct of a complete systems audit
that evaluates the effectiveness of all systems associated with the development of an
emissions inventory.  However, other types of audits may be conducted to  allow the
auditor to concentrate on specific systems or procedures that are critical to the
successful outcome of the  inventory development activities.

Because most technical studies involve numerous systems  that could result in the
collection of volumes of data, other types of audits may be needed to provide a more


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 thorough assessment of the adequacy of specific systems or the effectiveness of certain
 procedures. To accommodate the need for a more thorough assessment of phases of
 the inventory development process, the auditor may conduct MSAs, TSAs, PEAs, DQAs,
 and DRAs.

 The objective of the audit is used to determine which type of audit is appropriate to
 conduct. When the auditor needs a qualitative assessment of all or parts of the
 inventory development process, TSAs may be conducted. During these audits, the
 auditor can focus on one, several, or all of the procedures and systems.  If the auditor is
 concerned  about the adequacy of the devices used to take measurements, a quantitative
 assessment of the measuring device is needed; therefore, a PEA is conducted.  If the
 auditor is concerned about the manner in which data are recorded and whether it is
 complete, a DQA may be conducted. Moreover, the auditor conducts a DRA if there
 are concerns  about the accuracy and completeness of the emissions results and format
 of the report.  Regardless of the  type of audit conducted, the auditor plans to conduct
 the audits throughout the inventory development process to help improve the
 procedures and data as the  emissions results are developed.

 8.2.1  MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS AUDITS

 Management systems audits are important because the findings can be used to verify the
 existence and evaluate the adequacy of the internal management systems that are
 needed to develop a complete and accurate inventory. Generally MSAs are on-site
 evaluations of personnel management, project management, resources, training,  and
 scheduling. The objective of the  MSA is to determine if the work is adequately
 managed and supervised to meet the objectives of the work. Therefore, the
 commitment of management to establish and implement adequate QA and QC
 programs is evaluated. It is important that the evaluation of the QA program is
 conducted by an external auditor to provide an  objective assessment.

 Some of the questions that may be included on the checklist used during the conduct of
 a  MSA are as follows:

       •     Is there an approved QA program that includes adequately trained QA
             personnel?

       •     Is the QA program  supported and approved by senior management to
             ensure  that actions  are taken beyond the reporting level of the inventory
             development manager to get RCAs implemented?
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             Is there a mechanism that allows the QA personnel to keep abreast of the
             inventory development activities so that audits can be planned at critical
             phases in the inventory development process?

             Is there evidence of adequate supervision of inventory development
             activities?

             Does management provide adequate supplies and personnel to get the
             inventory developed within the agreed upon schedule?
i
      •      Have technical work plans and quality plans been developed and
             distributed to the inventory development staff and QA staff to ensure that
             the objectives and approved procedures for conducting the work are
             clearly understood?

      •      Are routine meetings held throughout the development of the inventory to
             provide an opportunity to discuss the successes and short-comings that may
             have arisen during the conduct of the work?

      •      Is there an effective corrective action mechanism that ensures the
             elimination of activities  that adversely affect the technical and data quality
             objectives?

During the MSA, the auditor tries to  determine if there are adequate management
support and appropriate quality programs to ensure that the quality of the work is
controlled. Provisions should be made to implement the  QA/QC programs as the
inventory is developed to ensure  continuous improvement and the achievement of the
objective of the work.

8.2.2 TECHNICAL SYSTEMS AUDITS

The TSA is a qualitative assessment to determine if the approved procedures  applicable
to the work are followed.  Because these procedures should be described in the  planning
documents, this audit is conducted to  determine if the approved procedures are being
followed and how effective they are.

Example procedures and systems that could be evaluated during a TSA and important
questions to answer during the audit are  included below:
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 Technical Planning

       •     Project Organization and Personnel

                    Is there a sufficient number of adequately trained personnel to
                    conduct the work and meet the deadline for reporting the results?

                    Does the organizational chart identify the QA Coordinator?

       •     Are there adequate funds for the resources needed?

       •     Are the constraints for doing the work outlined in the work plan or QAP?

       •     Are there procedures and goals for achieving data quality?

       •     Are technically sound procedures identified and explained in sufficient
             detail?

       •     Is there a reasonable inventory development schedule?

Data Collection and Analysis

       •     Are emission source categories and data elements prioritized?

       •     Have all emissions sources been identified?  How do you know?

       •     Are data collection procedures adequate?

       •     Are results calculated in a consistent manner?

       •     Are instruments used to collect real-time data adequately tested?

       •     Are the computer software and hardware adequate for their use in
             managing data or calculating results?

       •     Are the computer systems validated to be functioning as required prior to
             each use?

       •     What procedures are used to verify the accuracy of the calculated results?
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Data Handling

       •      Are data receipt records maintained and tracking numbers assigned to
             help monitor the completeness of the master data file?

       •      Is access to the data controlled to help maintain a complete file of all of
             the supportive data needed to verify the emissions results?

       •      Are there procedures for handling missing data?

Data Documentation

       •      Is the information recorded in a manner that will help avoid
             misinterpretations?

       •      Are the data documented in a manner that facilitates reconstruction of the
             development of emission results?

       •      Are there data correction procedures that help to reconstruct the reason
             for the correction and ensure the use of the accurate information?

8.2.3 PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AUDITS

Performance evaluation audits are conducted when there is a need to quantitatively
assess the accuracy of a measurement system. These audits are infrequently conducted
unless there is collection of real-time data to support the emissions results.  Sometimes
the appropriate corrective actions to take if the operation of the system is questionable
are not always apparent; therefore, PEAs are usually conducted in conjunction with
TSAs to evaluate the impact that associated systems may have on the operation and
maintenance of the measuring device.

The measurement system evaluated during a PEA could be a continuous emissions
monitor (CEM) that is used to determine the composition and concentration of the
emissions  from 'a stack located at a chemical plant. During the audit, the auditor
determines how close the results from  the measuring devices are to the known
concentration and composition of the reference material. Sometimes the identity of the
audit or reference material is unknown to the operator to help provide an objective
assessment of the results.
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Regardless of the measurement system, the objective is to determine the:

       •     The accuracy and precision of the measuring device;

       •     The acceptability of the QC data collected during routine operation of the
             measuring device;

       •     If the device is operating within the established control limit established in
             the QAP; and

       •     Changes in the quality of the data between audits or over a specified
             period of use.

The results are used to evaluate the usefulness of the measurement  data in determining
emissions results.  Measurement data naturally result in the development of a more
accurate emissions inventory because actual data are used to perform the calculations.

8.2.4  DATA QUALITY AUDITS

Audits of data quality are conducted to determine the acceptability of the data gathered
or developed and used to determine emissions results.  During the audit, the auditor
assesses the adequacy of the data documentation, collection, review, and management
activities. The use of the data to calculate emissions is also evaluated to determine if
the technical approach is sound and the conversion of units is accurate.

The auditor should review the results from the quality assessment conducted by the
generators of the original data to evaluate the acceptability of data developed externally
and forwarded to the inventory developers. If this evaluation is not  possible, the results
should be qualified by acknowledging that the results were determined from data of
unknown quality.

If measurement data are used to calculate emissions, the auditor should review the
QA/QC data and determine whether the data are valid for use.  The QA/QC data
provide important information about sample integrity prior to analysis, sampling
technique, sample  contamination, and the acceptability of the analytical system.  The
auditor should review the manner in which the data were flagged to show bias and
determine whether the values  used  to calculate emissions were valid.
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Some of the questions that may be asked during this type of audit are listed below.

Data Management

       •      Is the procedure for logging, filing, retrieving,  and storing the data
             included in a standard operating procedure?

       •      Are the data logged upon receipt and their use tracked to maintain a
             complete file of all of the data relevant to the emissions results?

       •      Are the data retained in one location and access to them controlled (helps
             to ensure completeness)?

       •      Are data in the file complete (trace from result back to actual data to see
             if results are reproducible and supportive data available)?

       •      Is one person responsible for maintaining the  data file?

Data Documentation

       •      Are data recorded and corrected in a manner  that helps to reduce
             misinterpretation of the information?

       •      Are data documented in a manner that will render them easy to
             reproduce, when reproduction is necessary, without risking the chance of
             losing data because of poor copies?

       •      Are the name of the data generator and date  the data are generated
             included on each data sheet?

Data Quality Indicators

       •      Were the data quality goals met?

       •      How are data gaps eliminated?

Data Generation

       •      Are calculations explained in sufficient detail to reproduce the results?

       •      Are units accurately converted?
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       •     Are the results in the required units?

       •     Are procedures for identifying outliers identified and followed?

       •     Are standard operating procedures used to round numbers?

       •     Do results represent the correct year?

Data Processing

       •     Are computer programs documented and validated?

       •     Are programs or spreadsheets tested prior to each use?

       •     Is the accuracy of data transcriptions checked?

Examples of completed work sheets and data audit checklists  are included at the end of
this section.

8.2.5  DATA/REPORT AUDITS

The data/report audit is a type of systems audit that is conducted to determine the
accuracy of the emissions results reported and determine whether there are sufficient
data to verify the results. This audit is conducted after the data and report have been
checked internally and just before  it is forwarded to the requestor. The primary goals of
the DRA are to determine whether the report accurately reflects the data and whether
the objectives for the work were met by using the approved procedures included in the
work plan and QAP.  An example DRA checklist is included in the appendix.

Because it is impossible to  check every data point reported, the auditor evaluates the
complete  report and selects key data points that could help  assess the accuracy of the
remainder of the data. A good understanding of the procedures followed by  the data
submitters, inventory development team, and reporter  helps to conduct an audit that
makes efficient use of time and resources.

During the DRA, the auditor attempts to verify the accuracy of all of the concluding
statements and raw data included in the report by comparing the data reported to  that
found in the  data file.  All of the basic equations used to calculate emissions  and the
technical approach are confirmed to be as indicated in the approved work plan and
QAP.  Some of the values are re-calculated to verify the relative accuracy of  the
emissions  data.
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In addition, the auditor also determines whether the reporting requirements were
actually met.

       •      Are the results in the required units?

       •      Is all of the required supportive information included in the report?

       •      Does the report meet the formatting requirements?

       •      Is the report dated?

       •      Are the results from the specified year required to be evaluated?

The questions included in the DQA section are also used to assess the quality of the
report and data. The peer review checklist shown in Figure 3.3-1 of Section 3 of this
chapter could be used for a DRA.

The DRAs are the last audit to be conducted during the development of the emissions
inventory.  The information provided  by the auditor is used to assess  how effectively the
QA and QC programs were implemented.  The RCAs that require correcting reported
values or information are addressed immediately and the auditor remains involved in
the corrective action process to ensure that the emissions data are accurately reported.
As with all of the audits, information  from the audit is used to plan the audit program
for the next emissions inventory and help improve the procedures used to control the
quality of the inventory data.

8.3   PREFERRED AND  ALTERNATIVE METHODS

There are several approaches or methods  to follow when auditing emissions inventory
development activities. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches or
methods, and the objectives for completing the inventory should be the determining
factors when deciding which approach is most appropriate.

For evaluations of inventories developed by state  agencies and industry, alternative
methods are needed because limited resources or other constraints are inherent to many
agencies and facilities developing the  inventories.  However, before selecting an
alternative audit method, one must accept the limited degree of quality that the method
will provide.  Therefore, alternative methods for conducting audits should only be
implemented when limited resources and other constraints do not permit the
implementation of the preferred method or approach.

The preferred and alternative audit methods are included in Table 3.8-2.


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                                   TABLE 3.8-2
                 PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS:  AUDITS
Method
Preferred
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Identification
Independent/External Audit
Internal Audit
Internal Data Checking
Description
Audit(s) conducted by an auditor or
audit team of experienced quality
professionals and technical personnel
who do not report to the inventory
development team manager or assist
in the development of the inventory.
Audits conducted by auditors who
are also involved in the inventory
development process.
QC checking only by the inventory
development team members.
 8.3.1  INDEPENDENT/EXTERNAL AUDIT

 An independent or external audit is conducted by an experienced auditor who is not
 involved in the emissions inventory development process. The independence of the
 auditor is signified by the reporting lines to management. In order for the auditor to be
 independent of the inventory development team and thus be able to provide an
 objective assessment of the systems and data evaluated, he/she must not report directly
 to the manager of the inventory development team for performance evaluations.
 However, it is not necessary that the audit be conducted by another agency or
 contractor; if the auditor was not involved in the development of the inventory, the
 audit may still be independent.

 During  the conduct of independent audits, the auditor must be able to objectively assess
 the procedures, systems, and data without fear of being reprimanded if the inventory
 development  manager is not in agreement with the findings or RCAs.  For this reason,
 in an organization where quality programs are well-established, the auditor reports to a
 QA Director  or senior management.

 Independent experienced auditors will develop an audit program that is of a higher
 quality than those conducted by inventory development personnel because of their
 knowledge of effective quality procedures. Successful auditors will also foster good
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working relationships with the inventory development team. This team building
approach is usually encouraged by the auditor to help learn more about the procedures
and concerns that the team members may have about data quality.  Because of the
experience and independence of the auditor, ineffective procedures are more readily
identified  and more effective solutions are recommended when corrective actions are
required.  In  addition, the independent auditor is better equipped to provide continuous
improvement throughout the development of the inventory.

One short-coming to this preferred approach to conducting audits is the need for
independence.  There could be additional costs if there is a need to expand the
inventory team to include an auditor or audit team.  However, experienced auditors
could help eliminate the costs associated with repeating work because of unacceptable
data quality or the incorporation of ineffective QC measures.

Independent  auditors could be personnel from other groups or agencies within an
organization;  therefore, selecting personnel from other groups is highly recommended as
a means of providing an objective assessment of the  quality of the  inventory data and
effectiveness  of the inventory development procedures.  Hiring a contractor with
inventory QA experience is another option.  Regardless of the source of the auditors,
technical as well as QA auditing experience are the keys to implementing a successful
independent audit.

8.3.2 INTERNAL AUDIT

Internal audits are conducted by personnel who are engaged in the development of the
emissions  inventory.  Some degree  of independence is attained by ensuring that
personnel do  not audit their own work. For example, a point source inventory
developer might audit the area source inventory process.  However, because the  auditor
reports directly to the supervisor or manager, he/she may not be able to provide as
objective an assessment of the work as an external auditor would.  The reporting lines
of authority may also prevent the auditor  from  resolving issues that may not be
favorable to the inventory development manager.

Because the internal auditor is also involved in developing the inventory, he/she may
not be able to provide an unbiased assessment  of the effectiveness of the procedures or
systems evaluated. For example, it is difficult for a writer to edit his work because he
often overlooks mistakes that are readily seen by someone who has never seen the
document or  worked on it. The effectiveness of procedures may also be overlooked
because the auditor is so accustomed to seeing the work conducted in this manner that
he/she never considers revising  them.  Therefore, an internal audit could lead to a
higher incident of error because some mistakes or quality issues may be overlooked.
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 One advantage of the internal audit is that the cost is probably at least partially
 included in the budget because the auditor is performing technical duties as well as QA
 duties.  Another advantage could be that the auditor is closer to the work so he/she
 may understand the technical approach and systems better than an auditor who has not
 been involved in the development of the inventory. The proximity to the work and
 working relationship with the personnel can also be an advantage  that would help to
 plan and implement the quality program in less time than it may take an auditor who is
 only involved in the QA aspects of the inventory. However, the decrease in cost
 associated with these advantages may not be off-set by the probability of a higher
 degree  of errors.

 8.3.3  INTERNAL DATA CHECKING

 Internal data checking is the most frequent procedure followed to help ensure the
 accuracy of the inventories;  in this procedure, the only "audit" is a review of calculations
 and procedures by the personnel who originally did the work (or by their colleagues).
 This method has the highest probable error rate of the three.  The error rate is higher
 because there is no formal quality program that requires assessments of the effectiveness
 of all of the systems and procedures used to develop the inventory. Examples of the
 systems that are critical to data accuracy and completeness are management of inventory
 development activities, personnel training, data documentation, data collection, data
 retention, and formal corrective  action mechanisms.  All of these systems or procedures
 have a  tremendous impact on the quality of an inventory.

 Internal data checking primarily involves checking the accuracy of calculated results and
 data transcriptions using the methods described in previous sections of this chapter.  It
 could also include the use of a peer reviewer to evaluate the soundness of the technical
 approach.  This form of QC often does not lead to continuous  improvement unless
 management establishes a mechanism that provides constant feedback of quality issues
 and corrective actions to the inventory development team.

 Continuous improvement also requires the implementation of measures that ensure
 frequent evaluations of the effectiveness of the inventory development procedures. The
 results from these evaluations must be documented and reviewed constantly to
 determine  when revisions of the  inventory development procedures are required to
 avoid data loss and inaccurate emissions results.  Therefore, the major disadvantages of
 only incorporating internal data checking as a means of QC are:

      •     The absence of a formal  quality review program with follow-up activities
             to help foster continuous improvement; and
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       •      The absence of a formal means of reviewing the effectiveness of technical
             procedures and evaluating the negative impact that these procedures may
             have on the accuracy and completeness of the inventory.

If internal data checking and the development of the technical approach to the work are
well planned, if there is supervision of the work, and if the  inventory development team
is very experienced, the quality of the inventories developed by incorporating this
method of QC could be increased. The planning would have to include supervision of
work practices and review of the data as the inventory is developed.  Communication
between managers, supervisors, and team members is critical  and QC procedures would
have to be implemented to  determine when there are activities that adversely impact
data quality.  Status meetings would also have to be held to keep abreast of the quality
issues and actions taken to implement  corrective actions.

Incorporating these QC measures and using an experienced inventory development team
would make the internal data checking  method an acceptable approach to controlling
the accuracy and completeness of emissions inventories.
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 EMISSIONS ESTIMATION  VALIDATION
QUICK REVIEW
      Definition:


      Objective:

      Optimal usage:
      Minimum expertise
      required:


      Advantages:
      Limitations:
Comparison of the estimated (model) emissions to
real-world measurements (or surrogates).
Prove the correctness of the model, assumptions,
and data used to estimate emissions.
(1) After model development is complete, but
before it is used on a wide scale, and (2) after
inventory is completed, but before it is used as
basis for decision making.

High.  May require expertise in areas outside of
inventory development (such as modelling,
sampling, ambient data analysis).
(1) Results in an independent test of an emissions
model or inventory, (2) may give insights into
areas needing more research, and (3) some
methods can  be used to identify missing or
inadequately  represented sources.

(1) Can be labor (and resource) intensive,
(2) most methods depend on availability of
additional data or models of high quality, and
(3) some methods are relatively new, and have
their own built-in uncertainties.
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9.1   OVERVIEW  OF  METHOD

The validation of emission estimates is the ultimate tool for assuring the quality and,
more importantly, determining the accuracy of emission estimates. Validation can be
used to "prove" (ideally using statistical methods) the accuracy of an emissions model for
a specific category.  Also, some methods can be used to validate entire inventories.

All validation methods rely on independent measurements, but not necessarily direct
measurements of emissions.  Surrogate variables known to be correlated with the
emission activity may be measured, or ambient concentrations may be measured.  In the
latter case, additional modelling is generally used in the analysis; these models have
some uncertainty associated with them, however.

Furthermore, field measurement and receptor modeling methods offer completely
independent checks on emission inventories since the methods rely on monitoring data
alone to estimate either the direct or relative contribution of emissions from individual
sources (or source groups). The inverse modeling techniques are not totally
independent because they use the emission estimate as the starting point for the air
quality modeling. However, output of the model is the best-fit adjustment required to
the emissions inventory to allow the modeled concentration data to match observed
ambient concentrations.  Thus, each method provides the  emissions inventory analyst the
tools to verify the relative or absolute emissions estimated through the emission
inventory process and identify potential problem areas, weaknesses, and strengths in
current inventory methodology.

Validation methods should only be used to evaluate and/or calibrate a thoroughly
QA/QC'd model. They are not substitutes for the standard QA and QC procedures
described in previous sections of this chapter. Moreover,  because of the potentially high
cost of validation procedures, attempting to validate an inventory that has not been
thoroughly QA'd can result in false results and a waste of resources.

Because the procedures described here are relatively expensive, require expert skill, and,
in some cases, are fairly new and  not entirely accepted by the  inventory community, the
EIIP considers these an optional component of an emissions inventory QA program. At
the same time, the EIIP encourages the  continual development and use of validation
methods. Studies such as the ones described below are ultimately the best way to
determine the accuracy (and in particular, the bias, see Chapter 4) of emission
inventories.
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 9.2  DIRECT AND INDIRECT MEASUREMENTS

 Direct and indirect measurement methods involve field measurement of actual emissions
 or surrogate parameters highly correlated with the emitted pollutant. These
 measurements can be used for two purposes. First,  the data can be used to verify and
 evaluate emission models.  Second, the field data can be processed to produce direct
 estimates of emissions and emissions uncertainty for the sources measured (See
 Chapter 4).  Because of their ability to provide unique sources of information on
 emissions, field studies have the potential to significantly enhance the understanding of
 the processes producing emissions and the uncertainty in these emissions.

 Prior to using field data to calculate emissions,  develop emission factors, or model the
 data to enhance an understanding of the emission process, one must evaluate the
 accuracy of the raw data used to generate the field data report. This evaluation should
 include reconstruction of the work and verification that the field/laboratory work was
 technically sound and the data points  are accurate.  The QA/QC information provided
 with the reported  results may also be  reviewed  to assure that the results are of sufficient
 quality for their intended uses.

 Evaluation of original field data often  allows the reviewer to evaluate the bias, if any,
 associated with each data point. Bias may be related to field sampling  techniques,
 sample contamination, or an unstable measurement  system.  To assess the validity of the
 data points, QC sample results or results from the analysis of blanks, matrix spikes,
 duplicate samples, replicate sample, or instrument calibration check samples can be
 evaluated. The intended use of the data should be used to determine the appropriate
 level of review needed. See the levels of inventories based on their intended use in
 Table 2.1-2 of Chapter 2 of this document.

 A well-known field study is the "tunnel study" of Pierson et al. (1990) in which motor
 vehicle emissions were estimated from air pollutant  concentrations measured within the
 Van Nuys highway tunnel in Los Angeles. The results of this study seemed to indicate
 that the available emission factors model in use at the time significantly underestimate
 VOC emissions from motor vehicles while NOX emissions seem to be estimated
 satisfactorily.  However, the interpretation of these data have been questioned by EPA
 and others and the results are subject  to debate.

 Remote sensing has significant  potential for use in estimating both point source and
 area source emissions and emissions uncertainty in industrial settings. For example,
 Spellicy et al. (1992) used Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrophotometry to
 estimate speciated VOC concentrations due to emissions from area sources within a
 petrochemical complex. When these data are correlated with process information and
 meteorological data, estimates of emissions and emissions uncertainty can be developed.


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Indirect measures also provide significant information that can address emission
uncertainty issues.  For example, Claiborn et al. (1995) released a surrogate tracer
species (SF6) to measure the relative dispersion of the tracer and PM10 from paved and
unpaved roads. The ratio of the measured PM10 and tracer concentrations and the
tracer release rate was then used to estimate emission factors for PM10 emissions from
the roadways. Estimates of uncertainty can then be determined directly from the field
measurements.  These tracer methods make the fundamental assumption that the tracer
is emitted and disperses in the same manner as the pollutant of interest.  This
assumption may not hold in some situations so care must be taken when performing
tracer studies and when analyzing the study results  to ensure that this key assumption is
met.

Fujita et al.  (1992) estimated ratios  of various pollutants developed from emission
inventories and ambient monitoring data from the South Coast Air  Quality Study
(SCAQS). Table 3.9-1 presents results from Fujita et al. in which they compared the
ratio of ambient and emission inventory estimated ratios of CO/NOX and NMOC/NOX.
Included in Table 3.9-1 are the adjustment factors to the exhaust portion of the emission
inventory that would be  required to bring the emission inventory ratios to equality with
the observed ambient ratios (i.e., remove a potential bias).  Based upon this analysis,
they suggested that VOC from motor vehicles, relative to NOX, appears to be
underestimated in motor vehicle emission inventories, the same  conclusion reached by
Pierson et al. discussed above.

Janssen and Koerber (1995) have also compared computed to observed VOC to NOX
ratios as part of the Lake Michigan  Ozone Study (LMOS)  in an effort to understand
uncertainties in the LMOS emission inventory.  Their initial analysis of VOC/NOX ratios
indicated differences of more than a factor of two with the estimated ratio higher than
the observed ratio.  However, after a prioritized review and reassessment of the sources
of VOC emissions  contributing most significantly to the  estimated ratio, the difference
between the observed and estimated ratio was reduced to  under 30 percent. This study
is a good example of the role that observed monitoring data can play  in prioritizing
enhancements to emission inventories.

Peer et al. (1992) used field sampling data to develop a regression model and to
validate and calibrate a physical model of emissions of methane from landfills.  In this
study, data from 21 landfills with gas recovery systems were collected and used to
develop a regression model of methane emissions.  Information  included in the model
were methane recovery rate, landfill size, refuse mass, site  age, and climatic measures
(average precipitation, temperature, and dewpoint temperature).

The data for each landfill were also used to validate the EPA's Landfill Air Emissions
Estimation Model. This model is used to estimate  methane (CH4), carbon dioxide
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CHAPTER 3 - QA/QC METHODS
                                    TABLE 3.9-1
           COMPARISON OF AMBIENT AND INVENTORY RATIOS OF CO/NO,
                   AND NMOG/NOX FOR LOS ANGELES FOR  1987
Pollutant
Ratio
CO/NOX
NMOG/NOX
Season
Summer
Fall
Summer
Fall
Time (PST)
06-08
20-08
06-08
20-08
06-08
20-08
06-08
20-08
Amb/EI
Ratio3
1.4
1.6
1.1
1.4
2.5
3.0
1.7
2.3
Required MV
Adj Factor6
1.5
1.9
1.2
1.7
4.4
5.5
2.8
4.0
 Source: Fujita et al., 1992.

 a Ratio of the pollutant ratio estimated from ambient monitoring data to that estimated from the motor
  vehicle emissions inventory.
  Adjustment factor required to bring the hot motor vehicle emissions inventory ratio to equality with the
  ambient ratio.
 (CO2), and VOC emissions for individual landfills; it is sensitive to the input values for
 k (decay rate) and LO (methane potential of the waste). Table 3.9-2 shows a comparison
 of the performance of the deterministic model and the regression model.  The
 numerical values shown are the ratios of actual methane flows (at each of the
 21 landfills identified by "site number")  to predicted methane emissions for the models.
 The closer the ratio is to 1, the better the predicted value.

 The Landfill Air Emissions Estimation Model was run using three different sets of input
 values for k and L,,; Run 3 used the recommended defaults. Based  on this study, these
 defaults were shown to overpredict emissions (mean ratio is 1.97). Subsequent versions
 of the model recommended new default values similar to the input values used for
 Run 2.

 Field studies provide the information needed for direct estimates of both emissions and
 the uncertainty associated with those estimates.  However, there are  two significant
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                                TABLE 3.9-2
             VALIDATION OF LANDFILL METHANE EMISSIONS MODELS"
Site Number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
16
17
20
21
22
23
24
25
Mean
Standard Deviation
Landfill Air Emissions Estimation Model
Run 1
Pred./Actual
0.16
0.48
0.28
0.22
0.58
0.24
0.46
0.37
0.36
0.25
0.23
0.54
0.16
0.33
0.49
0.41
0.15
0.19
1.74
0.54
0.82
0.43
0.34
Run 2
Pred./Actual
0.40
1.21
0.71
0.55
1.44
0.60
1.16
0.93
0.90
0.64
0.57
1.34
0.39
0.82
1.23
1.02
0.36
0.47
4.35
1.34
2.06
1.07
0.85
Run 3
Pred./Actual
0.73
2.23
1.31
1.01
2.66
1.10
2.14
1.71
1.67
1.17
1.05
2.47
0.72
1.52
2.26
1.88
0.67
0.87
8.00
2.46
3.79
1.97
1.56
Regression Model
Pred./Actual
0.52
1.55
0.83
0.62
1.95
0.73
1.50
1.15
1.15
0.83
0.85
1.72
0.57
1.02
1.73
1.24
0.47
0.57
632
1.60
2.34
1.39
1.24
"From Peer et al., 1992.
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limitations of field studies that must be addressed in any field program.  First, the
emissions data are only valid for the conditions and sources that were present during the
field measurements. Because it is not  possible to make measurements under all
conditions for all sources, there are inherent biases  that will be present in all emission
models developed based on the field data if these models are applied outside the
development bounds. For example, if  the traffic in  the tunnel  during the Van Nuys
tunnel study were atypical of traffic in  the Los Angeles area and that represented
internally in the emission factor model, the results of the analysis of the data from the
study would have limited applicability.

A second limitation is that field studies must limit their effort to generally well-defined
source classes or source types.  It is not possible to  design a comprehensive field
program to measure all,  or even most,  of the emission sources  in an urban area.
Consequently, there will be  inherent limitations in the applicability of any emission
model or uncertainty estimates developed using the data.

9.3  RECEPTOR MODELING

Receptor modeling, also called source  apportionment, is a "top-down" method of
estimating the relative contribution of individual source categories to an emission
inventory. The Chemical Mass Balance Model (CMB) (Watson et al., 1984) is a widely
used model for performing receptor modeling. It is called top-down because it uses
information about the entire inventory  and modeling domain to estimate the relative
contribution of emissions from each source category rather than building up contribution
estimates on a source-by-source basis.

In receptor modeling, least squares estimation is used to obtain the best fit  of emissions
from each source modeled that reproduces the chemical composition of observed
monitoring data at a given monitoring  site. The two key input requirements for
receptor modeling are the chemical composition of  ambient monitoring data and the
chemical  composition ("fingerprints") of emissions from each source with the
corresponding same level of detail as the monitoring data.

The model is able to resolve contributions from sources that have unique chemical
compositions. Unless a given source (facility) has a unique emissions chemical
composition, it is not possible with receptor modeling to resolve the impact of an
individual source.  In addition, only relative impacts are produced by the model
indicating the relative contribution from each source class. Typical source classes
modeled include motor vehicle exhaust, fuel combustion, electric utilities, construction
activities, marine aerosol, and fugitive dust of geological origin.
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Receptor modeling in the past has been used primarily for examining sources of
relatively stable pollutants such as particulate matter.  For example, Chow et al. (1992)
used the CMB to examine PM10 source apportionment in the San Joaquin Valley in
California. They concluded that fugitive dust of geological origin (e.g., fugitive dust
from agricultural tilling, roadways, and construction activity) exceeded 50 percent of the
observed PM10 at Bakersfield in the summer and fall.  Onroad motor vehicles
contributed only approximately 10% of the observed PM10 while 4 percent of the PM10
mass was unexplained.

Much recent work has been performed to  apply receptor modeling to reactive
pollutants. For example, Scheff et al. (1995) applied the CMB to evaluation of
emissions of non-methane organic compounds for the Southeast Michigan Ozone Study
(SEMOS). Sheff selected chemical species with relatively low reactivity for use in the
modeling, and selected his modeling scenarios to reflect  relatively  small travel times.
Using this methodology, Sheff et al. were able to overcome the issue of reactivity and
loss of emitted mass times and thus limited the potential influence  of atmospheric
photochemistry on the modeling results. They concluded that the  relative proportion of
the observed NMOC concentrations was consistent with  current  estimates of emissions
for architectural coating and coke oven sources.  However, there were significant
differences between  the CMB results and the current inventory on the relative
proportion of emissions from refineries and graphic arts.

A limitation of the methodology is the resolution available from the CMB model is
limited by the quality of the available source emission composition profiles.   Because of
the large variability between sources and potentially from test to test for a given source,
these profiles are highly variable.  Consequently, significant preparatory work must be
performed to ensure that the most representative source profiles are used as input to
the CMB model. In addition, the monitoring data used  in CMB modeling must be
representative of ambient concentrations in the area in which the emissions are
occurring.  These monitoring data cannot be primarily influenced by local sources for
which source profiles are not available.  Nor can chemical reactions or losses such as
deposition or decay deplete the emitted substances prior to their measurement as
ambient concentrations.

9.4  INVERSE AIR QUALITY MODELING

The inverse air quality modeling method relies on the use of a validated air quality
dispersion model to  back calculate what the emissions should be to produce the
observed air pollutant concentrations. These general inverse methods are based upon
an iterative application of a Kalman filter  (Hartley and Prinn, 1993).  They use a
recursive, least squares approach  to minimize the difference between the  observed
concentrations field  and the modeled concentration field produced using adjusted


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 emissions.  These methods are very powerful and can yield direct estimates of temporal
 and spatial emissions and their uncertainty, both overall and stratified by source type or
 location.

 Chang et al. (1993; 1995) used the Kalman filter approach to examine the ability of this
 methodology to yield estimates of emission uncertainty.  Work in progress is continuing
 the testing of this methodology and applying it to estimate uncertainty in isoprene
 emissions in the Atlanta area (Chang et al., 1995).

 Mulholland and Seinfeld (1995) used the Kalman filter inverse modeling approach to
 examine potential  errors in the CO inventory for the Los Angeles area.  In this study,
 estimates of both temporal and spatial errors in the CO emissions inventory for Los
 Angeles were developed.  Figure 3.9-1 presents the estimated overall temporal
 adjustment factor for air basin-wide CO emissions that resulted from the best fit
 between the modeled and observed CO concentrations.  The weekday adjustment varies
 from approximately a factor of 3 during the day to  considerably less than one at night.
 The weekend adjustment factor approaches a factor of ten.  In addition to these
 temporal biases, they also identified potential spatial biases in the Los Angeles CO
 emissions inventory, including a postulated significant underestimate of recreational
 traffic along the coast on the weekend day modeled (Saturday).

 There are inherent limitations in the use of air quality models for estimating emissions
 uncertainty. Air quality simulation models are imperfect representations of the real
 world in that many simplifying assumptions must be made during model development.
 These models,  in their attempt to simulate very complex atmospheric behavior,
 introduce their own uncertainty to  the emission estimates. These uncertainties can be
 due to inherent assumptions in the model, the  numerical  algorithms used to implement
 the assumptions, inadvertent biases introduced in the model formulation, and imprecise
 or erroneous input data. As a result, there are limitations to the accuracy of air quality
 models  in use today.

 Any use of the inverse air quality modeling methodology  to estimate emissions
 uncertainty must account for the uncertainty introduced by the air quality model itself.
 For example, the EPA performance goal for the Urban Airshed Model is for the gross
 error of all observed-predicted pairs to be less than 30 to 35 percent and normalized
 bias to be within ±15 percent (U.S. EPA, 1991b).  However, when  the model is used to
 examine differences between  modeling scenarios or incremental differences in model
 estimates due to small perturbations in model input (such as occurs in these general
 inverse  methods), the model errors and biases  can tend to cancel or drop out.
 Consequently, the  uncertainty introduced into the estimates of emission uncertainty can
 be made small  compared to the other sources of uncertainty.
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                                     6/12/97
                    Thursday
Friday
Saturday
                                      Time
            [hr]
    Fig. 5. Single adjustment factor for all CO sources: time-variation to achieve best CIT model fit
                              to CO concentration observations.
          FIGURE 3.9-1.  SINGLE ADJUSTMENT FACTOR FOR ALL CO SOURCES
       Reprinted from Atmospheric Environment, Vol. 29, M. Mulholland and J.H. Seinfeld, Inverse Air
       Pollution Modelling of Urban-Scale Carbon Monoxide Emissions,  pp. 497-516,1995, with kind
       permission from Elsevier Science Ltd., The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington 0X5 1GB, UK.
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 10
 REFERENCES
Birth, T.L.  1995.  User's Guide to the Personal Computer Version of the Biogenic
Emissions Inventory System (PC-BEIS2). Prepared by Computer Sciences Corporation
for U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, EPA
Interagency Agreement DW47936118-01. Washington, D.C.

Cardelino, C. 1995. "The Application of Land Use Patterns to Study the Impact of
Temperature, Biogenic Emissions and Land Use Pattern Changes on Ozone Precursor
Emissions and Ozone Concentrations." In:  Proceedings: Regional Photochemical
Measurement and Modeling Studies. Volume 3, VIP-48, Air and Waste Management
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Chameides, W.R., R. Lindsay, J. Richardson, and C. Kiang. 1988. The Role of
Biogenic Hydrocarbons in Urban Photochemical Smog: Atlanta as a Case Study.
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Chang, M., C. Cardelino, W. Chameides, and W.  Change.  1993.  "An Iterative
Procedure to Estimate Emission Inventory Uncertainties."  Presented at  the Regional
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Chang, M., C. Cardelino, D. Hartley, and W. Change.   1995. "Inverse Techniques  for
Developing Historical and Future Year Emission Inventories."  Presented at the
Emission Inventory: Programs and Progress Specialty Conference of the Air & Waste
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Chow, J.C., J.G. Watson, D.H. Lowenthal, P.A. Soloman, K.L. Magliano, S.D. Ziman,
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Atmospheric Environment 26A:3335-3354.

Claiborn, C., A. Mitra, G. Adams, L. Bamesberger, G. Allwine, R. Kantamaneni, B.
Lamb and H. Westberg.  1995. Evaluation of PM10 Emission Rates from Paved and
Unpaved Roads Using Tracer Techniques. Atmospheric Environment 29:1075-1089.
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Fujita, E.M., B.E. Croes, C.L. Bennett, D.R. Lawson, F.W. Lurmann and H.H. Main.
1992.  Comparison of Emission Inventory and Ambient Concentration Ratios of CO,
NMOG, and NOX in California's South Coast Air Basin. /. Air Waste Manage. Assoc.
42(3):264-276.

Gaudioso, D.,  M.C. Cirillo, C. Trozzi, and R. Vaccaro.  1994. "Uncertainty of NMVOC
emission estimates from vegetation." In:  The Emission Inventory:  Perception and
Reality. Proceedings of an International Specialty Conference, VIP-38.  Air & Waste
Management Association, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Gilbert, R.O.  1987.  Statistical Methods for Environmental Pollution Monitoring.  Von
Nostrand Reinhold, New York.

Grant, E.L., and R.S. Leavenworth.  1988.  Statistical Quality Control McGraw-Hill
Book Company, New York.

Harley, R.A., A.G. Russell, G.J. McRae, G.R. Cass, and J.H. Seinfeld.  1993.
Photochemical Modeling of the Southern California Air Quality Study.  Environ. Sci.
Technol. 27:378-388.

Hartley, D., and R.J. Prinn.  1993.  Feasibility of Determining Surface Emissions of
Trace Gases Using an Inverse Method in a Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport
Model. /. Geophys. Res. 98:5183-5197.

Janssen, M., and M. Koerber.  1995. "Developing a Future Year Regional Attainment
Demonstration Inventory for Ozone." In:  The Emission Inventory:  Programs and
Progress, Proceedings of a specialty conference, VIP-56. Air & Waste Management
Association, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Lamb, B.,  D. Gay, H. Westberg, and T. Pierce.  1993. A Biogenic Hydrocarbon
Emission Inventory for the U.S.A. Using a Simple Forest Canopy Model.  Atmospheric
Environment 27A(11):1673-1690.

Lawrence, RJ. 1988. "Applications in Economics and Business."  In: Lognormal
Distributions: Theory and Applications. E.L. Crow and K. Shmizu, editors.  Marcel
Dekker, Inc. New York and Basel,  pp. 229-266.

Misenheimer, D.C. 1996.  Personal communication from D.C. Misenheimer, U.S. EPA,
to L.Y. Cooper, Eastern Research Group, Inc., regarding transmission of example
auditing tool (Voyager) figure.  June 6, 1996.
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 Mulholland, M., and J.H. Seinfeld. 1995. Inverse Air Pollution Modelling of Urban-
 Scale Carbon Monoxide Emissions. Atmospheric Environment 29:497-516.

 National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program.  1991. Acidic Deposition: State of
 Science and Technology; Volume I - Emissions, Atmospheric Processes, and Deposition.
 P.M. Irving, editor, Government Printing Office, ISBN 0-16-0361144-3. Washington,
 D.C

 Neece, J.D., and J.H. Smith.  1994. "Automated Quality Assurance Of Point Source
 Emission Inventories For Urban Airshed Modeling." In:  The Emission Inventory:
 Perception and Reality. Proceedings of an International Specialty Conference, VIP-38.
 Air & Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

 Peer, R.L., D.L. Epperson, D.L. Campbell., and P. von Brook.  1992.  Development of an
 Empirical Model of Methane Emissions from Landfills.  U.S. Environmental Protection
 Agency, Air and Energy Engineering  Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, North
 Carolina.

 Pierce, T.E., B.K. Lamb, and  A.R. Van Meter. 1990.  "Development of a Biogenic
 Emissions Inventory System for Regional Scale Air Pollution Models." Paper 90-94-3,
 presented at the 83rd Annual Meeting of the Air & Waste Management Association,
 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, June 24-29.

 Pierson, W.R., A.W. Gertler,  and  R.L. Bradow.  1990.  Comparison of the SCAQS
 Tunnel Study with Other On-road Vehicle Emission Data. /. Air Waste Manage. Assoc.
 40:1495-1504.

 Scheff, P.A., R.A. Wadden, D.M. Kenski, and J. Chang.  1995.  "Receptor Model
 Evaluation of the SEMOS Ambient NMOC Measurements" Paper 84-72.3. Presented
 at the  77th Annual Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association,  San Francisco,
 California, June.

 Shapiro, S.S., and M.B. Wilk.   1965. An Analysis of Variance Test for Normality
 (complete samples).  Biometrika 52:591-611.

 Smith, A.E., J.T. Schanz, and  P. Fuja.  1995.  Air Quality Utility Information System
 (AQUIS) Emission Algorithms. Prepared by  Argonne National Laboratory for  USAF
 Headquarters  Air Force Material Command,  Wright-Patterson Air Force Base,
 Environmental Assessment Division.  Dayton, Ohio.

 Sokal,  R.R., and F.J. Rohlf.  1969.  Biometry.  W.H. Freeman and  Company,
 San Francisco, California.
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 South Coast Air Quality Management District.  1994.  1994 Air Quality Management
 Plan, Final Technical Report V-B, Ozone Modeling - Performance Evaluation.
 Diamond Bar, California.

 Spellicy, F.L., J.A. Draves, W.L. Crow, W.F Herget, and W.F. Buchholtz.  1992. "A
 Demonstration of Optical Remote Sensing in a Petrochemical Environment."  Presented
 at the Air & Waste Management Association Specialty Conference on Remote Sensing,
 Houston, Texas.  6-9 April.

 U.S. Air Force.  1994.  Air Quality Utility Information System (AQUIS) User's Guide
 and System Information.  Prepared by Argonne National Laboratory for USAF
 Headquarters Air Force Material Command, Wright-Patterson Air Force Base,
 Environmental Assessment Division.  Dayton, Ohio.

 U.S. EPA. 1988. Guidance for the Preparation of Quality Assurance Plans for Oj/CO
 SIP Emission Inventories.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality
 Planning and Standards, EPA-450/4-88-023.  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

 U.S. EPA. 1989. Quality Assurance Program for Post-1987 Ozone and Carbon Monoxide
 State Implementation Plan Emission Inventories.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
 Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA-450/4-89-004.  Research Triangle
 Park, North Carolina.

 U.S. EPA. 1991a. Quality Review Guidelines for 1990 Base Year Emission Inventories.
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
 EPA-450/4-91-022.  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

 U.S. EPA. 1991b. Guideline for Regulatory Application of the Urban Airshed Model.
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
 EPA-450/4-91-013.  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

 Watson, J.G., J.A. Cooper, and J.J. Huntzicker.  1984.  The Effective Variance Weighing
 for Least Squares Calculations Applied to the Mass Balance Receptor  Model.
Atmospheric Environment 18:1347-1355.

 Woodall, W.H., and B.M. Adams.  1990.  "Statistical Process Control."  In:  Handbook of
 Statistical Methods for Engineers and Scientists. H.M. Wadsworth, editor.  McGraw-Hill
 Publishing Company, New York.  pp.  7.1 to 7.28.
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             APPENDIX A
       EXAMPLE AUDIT REPORT
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                          EXAMPLE  AUDIT REPORT

The audit report includes a summary of the findings from assessing the data, procedures,
and results from the interviews held with  the inventory project team members.
Recommendations for corrective actions are discussed immediately after the audit;
however, a formal report which summarizes the auditor's activities and findings should
be distributed within two weeks. The example shows the format and information that
could be included in a technical systems audit report which summarizes the findings from
a site visit and QA training session.
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 AUDIT REPORT

 TO:               Project Team
 FROM:            Auditor's name
 DATE:
 SUBJECT:         Technical Systems Audit and Quality Assurance Training of State
                   Air Agency's Ozone and Carbon Monoxide Point Sources Emissions
                   Inventory Development Program

 1.0          INTRODUCTION/BACKGROUND

             Under the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990, state and local air
 pollution agencies are required to inventory emissions  contributing to National Ambient
 Air Quality Standards nonattainment, including ozone  and carbon monoxide (CO), using
 1990 as the base year.  Because  the data will serve as the basis for State Implementation
 Plans (SIPs),  the inventories must be accurate and complete.

             On date, a technical systems audit and quality  assurance (QA) training
 session were conducted by the Project Quality Assurance Coordinator (QAC) at the state
 air agency office.  The audit and training are part of the QA program designed to help
 produce an accurate and complete point sources inventory.

             The state air agency works with contract  personnel on the development  of
 the point sources inventory. The state collects data from permitted sources, assesses its
 accuracy, and determines seasonal adjustments of total emissions. Contractors  perform
 the same tasks for nonpermitted sources.  The data collected by the state air agency are
 then entered into the State Implementation Plan Air Pollution Inventory Management
 System (SAMS) database for range checking and emissions calculations. The emissions

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data from both the contractor and the agency are combined to yield a final point sources
emissions inventory report.

             A draft of the QA Plan for the state was discussed with the State
Emissions Inventory Development Manager and approved a week prior to the audit.
Because the QA Plan was not approved and distributed to the inventory development
team prior to commencing the inventory activities, the auditor did not expect to find
complete compliance with the approved quality control (QC) procedures. However, the
QC and documentation procedures in use at the time of the audit were assessed and
compared to the QA requirements established by the United States Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) for emissions inventory development work. The ultimate goals
of the QA/QC program developed for emissions inventory development are data
accuracy, procedural consistency, and good documentation of the data and all inventory
development activities. When the potential for problems or deficiencies in the  QC
program were found, recommendations were made by the auditor for improvements.

2.0          AUDIT PROCEDURE

             The technical systems audit was the first of two audits to be conducted in
the state.  The objective of this audit was to review and assess the effectiveness of the
QC procedures established and implemented in the following areas:

             •     Data collection;
             •     Data analysis;
             •     Data documentation;
             •     Data management;
             •     Personnel training; and
             •     Senior technical supervision.

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             All survey forms received from permitted facilities are forwarded to the
 State Emissions Inventory Development Manager and maintained in a master data file.
 The survey forms are later forwarded to the inventory staff members.  Each person
 prioritizes the data and focuses more attention on data from those facilities  known to be
 high emitters. The information recorded on the survey forms are assessed for
 completeness and reasonableness.  Calls are made to the submitter, if needed, to request
 or clarify data prior to making seasonal adjustments and totaling emissions results.

             During the audit, the auditor met with each person involved in permitted
 sources inventory development and asked them to describe the procedures followed after
 data are forwarded from the State Emissions Inventory Development Manager.  Some
 personnel were asked to  review, analyze, and enter data into the SAMS database.  While
 this was being done, the auditor assessed each person's experience using the database
 and ease in assessing the information recorded on the forms. Data documentation
 procedures, data management procedures, and use of senior technical resources were
 also evaluated.  The findings from these individual assessments and the
 recommendations to improve the QC procedures are presented in the next section of this
 report.

 3.0          AUDIT FINDINGS

             The auditor confirmed the use of sufficient adequately trained  personnel
 and the presence of sufficient senior technical supervision  to develop an accurate point
 sources inventory.  However, additional trained personnel would help the staff meet the
 tight deadline imposed by EPA and provide a more objective validation of the data.

             Data documentation procedures could be improved to facilitate referencing
data obtained via telephone or added/corrected as a result of engineering judgement.

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The improvement in data documentation would also facilitate reconstruction of inventory
development activities and thus provide a means to more thoroughly assess data quality
and the accuracy of the inventory.

             The data produced  by each inventory staff member are not peer reviewed.
According to the State Emissions Inventory Development Manager, limited time and
personnel resources will not allow this objective validation of the data; therefore, more
effort is being placed on technical over-sight during inventory development.

             Although the audit  findings do not suggest major deficiencies in the QC
program, recommendations for improvement were made to further verify the accuracy of
the results and integrity of the data.
4.0          RECOMMENDATIONS TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY CONTROL
             PROGRAM
             As a result of the audit findings, recommendations are being made to
improve the QC program.  These recommendations will be discussed with the State
Emissions Inventory Development Manager and the EPA Project Officer prior to
implementing any revised procedures. Upon agreement, the procedural changes needed
to provide the quality of data and level of documentation expected by EPA will  be
implemented by the staff and verified by the auditor during the next audit.

             The auditor's recommendations are as follows:
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 4.1          Develop and standardize a procedure for rounding numbers in order to
             provide consistency in calculating and reporting results
             During the audit, the auditor evaluated the calculation of seasonal data
 and other derivations by inventory development team members and found inconsistencies
 in the rounding of numbers. Although these inconsistencies will not grossly impact the

 accuracy of the final emission results, a consistent approach to rounding numbers is

 recommended. Clarity and consistency are data quality goals that are encouraged by

 EPA.
4.2          Develop and implement standard procedures for documenting and
             correcting data on the survey forms and in notebooks
             The inventory staff members are documenting data very well; however, a

set of guidelines for this documentation would improve data retrievals and help

reconstruct inventory development activities. The following guidelines should be
considered:


             •     Document data in black ink because it photocopies well. Several
                   colors of ink and pencil are being used to record data in notebooks
                   and on the survey forms.  Data could be inadvertently lost if the raw
                   data are copied because some ink colors and pencil entries do not
                   reproduce well.

             •     Distinguish between data recorded by the submitter and data
                   recorded by the inventory staff members.  Data recorded on survey
                   forms are not always initialed and dated when recorded by inventory
                   staff members on the survey forms. It will be difficult to reconstruct
                   inventory development activities if one cannot determine the source
                   of the data entries.  The validity of the data may also be questioned
                   if the source of the information is unclear.

             •     Do not obscure original entries when correcting  data so that all
                   inventory development activities can be reconstructed.  Some data

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                    corrections are made by using correction fluid or erasing pencil
                    entries.  This practice may compromise the integrity of the data.
                    Being able to determine the original entry, the reason for the
                    correction, and the identity of the person revising the data enhances
                    the validity of the correction.  Corrections should be made by
                    drawing a single line  through the data and entering the correction
                    next to, above, or below the original entry.  If the data on a form
                    includes entries by more than one person, corrections should be
                    initialed and dated.

                    Assign book and  page numbers to the notebooks used to record
                    information received  by telephone and information regarding other
                    critical inventory  development activities. Data are currently
                    documented  in spiral  stenographer notebooks. Because the books
                    are not paginated and assigned unique identification numbers, it is
                    difficult to reference the source of information when data are
                    transcribed to the survey forms.  Book and page numbers can be
                    used as references on the survey forms when there is a need to
                    verify data sources or provide clarifying comments.

                    For consistency, develop a standard procedure that describes the
                    data to be recorded in the notebook and on the  survey forms.  The
                    type of information recorded in the  notebooks and on the survey
                    forms varies between  the inventory staff members. If the type of
                    data to be recorded in the notebooks and on the survey forms  are
                    clarified  and standardized for all inventory staff members, it would
                    be easier to validate the  accuracy of the data that are finally entered
                    into the database to calculate the emissions.

                    When information is received via telephone, document the name of
                    the contact person and date the data are received. Information
                    received by telephone is  often recorded  on the survey form or  in
                    notebooks without providing the name of the person contacted or
                    the date  the information was received. To allow verification of the
                    data, the source must  always be provided.  The date allows the
                    reviewer to reconstruct the activities associated with data collection
                    and analysis.  The ability to reconstruct  these activities will provide
                    a means  of further assessing data quality and accuracy.
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 43           Require the establishment of a file folder for each survey form as it is
              forwarded to the staff member and the maintenance of the survey form in
              the folder as the data are analyzed to help avoid data loss
             Inventory staff members have devised different procedures for maintaining
 survey forms received from the State Emissions Inventory Development Manager.  The
 organization of the data and handling practices ultimately determines how complete the
 master file will be after the inventory is developed. Forms kept loosely on a desk or in
 desk drawers could be easily misplaced.  The maintenance of the forms in folders with
 the identification of the facility clearly marked will help improve data management
 procedures and help prevent data loss.

 4.4          Document all inventory development training

             Although the documentation of training may not be a state requirement,
 training records further qualify the data by  verifying that the personnel  developing the
 inventory are adequately trained to perform the duties assigned. According to the State
 Emissions Inventory Development Manager, training was provided  by having less
 experienced persons work with a more experienced person until their performance was at
 a level that did not require direct supervision.  Because this training further qualifies  a
 staff member to make technical judgements, it should be verified in writing.  The
 documentation should include  the dated signatures of the trainer and trainee, a
 description of the training, training dates, and the date the trainee was considered to  be
 performing at a level that allowed him/her  to independently assume inventory
 development responsibilities.
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5.0          DISCUSSION

             A discussion of the findings related to data collection, data analysis, data
documentation, data management, personnel training, and senior technical supervision
are presented in this section of the audit report.  As mentioned earlier, the audit findings
and recommendations to improve the QC program were discussed with the State
Emissions Inventory Development Manager immediately after the audit.

5.1          Data Collection

             The survey forms are forwarded to the State Emissions Inventory
Development Manager and the data receipt information is logged into a database.  After
the receipt of the data is documented, the data are assigned to personnel responsible for
the geographical area within which the facility forwarding the survey form is located.

             The database provides adequate tracking of the completeness of the
responses from the permitted sources.  The database can also be used to assess the
completeness of the master data file.  No recommendations for improving the existing
data collection procedures were made.

5.2          Data Analysis

             After receiving the data, each staff member assesses the completeness of
the form and reviews the information provided for reasonableness.  Seasonal adjustments
are made and total emissions are manually calculated.  The units are checked for
consistency and compatibility with those used in the SAMS database. Calculated results
are added to the survey form and  the information required to calculate emissions is
entered into the SAMS database.  If the results are out of range, they are not accepted
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 by the system.  Data appearing to be unreasonable are double-checked by calling the
 facility contact person.  No recommendations were made to improve the data analysis
 procedures.

 53          Data Documentation

             As data are manually calculated or received via conversations with the
 submitter, inventory staff members record the information directly on the survey forms or
 in a spiral stenographer notebook.  The notebooks are not uniquely numbered or
 paginated.  The information recorded in the notebook or on the survey forms varied
 between the inventory staff members. Some inventory staff members recorded the
 information received by telephone in the notebook and then transferred it to the survey
 forms. Others recorded the information directly on the survey forms. Others only
 recorded information  from telephone conversations held with permitted source personnel
 in the notebook.

             Additional data documentation concerns that led to recommendations for
 improvement included:

             •     Not always including the source, date, and initials of the person
                   adding data to the survey forms;
             •     Using correction fluid; and
             •     Not using black indelible ink to record data.

             Recommendations were made to standardize the data documentation
procedures so that data are easy to review and calculated results are  easily verified.
Recommendations were made to help validate the accuracy and integrity of the data
used to calculate emissions results and facilitate the reconstruction of emissions

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development activities. The auditor also recommended the use of bound rather than
spiral notebooks for future work to help avoid data loss.

5.4          Data Management

             Data are managed by each staff member in his/her designated office area
until they are filed in the master data file.  Most of the survey forms are kept loosely in
a desk drawer or mail tray. In order to help eliminate the possibility of the data being
misplaced or lost and improve the completeness of the master data file, the auditor
made recommendations to improve data handling and management procedures.

5.5          Personnel Training

             All personnel appeared to be adequately trained to perform the tasks
reviewed during the audit. The technical accuracy of engineering judgement and data
analysis were not assessed; however, familiarity with the database, priority of the data,
and use of EPA guidance material were verified to be acceptable. All personnel
appeared to be readily able to use the database and move between screens when
explaining how data entries were made.

            The State Emissions Inventory Development Manager commented that the
training conducted on his newest employee was not documented; therefore, a
recommendation to document this training in the personnel files was made.  Each staff
member was very confident about his/her abilities to perform the tasks assigned.
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 5.6          Senior Technical Supervision/Peer Review

             All staff members spoke very highly of the accessibility of senior technical
 advice from the State Emissions Inventory Development Manager. When there are
 questions about the acceptability of the data, the manager is asked to make the final
 decisions.  No recommendations to improve the system were made because the  staff
 members and the auditor agreed that adequate supervision is provided.

 6.0          QUALITY ASSURANCE TRAINING

             The QA training provided by the QAC included an overview of basic QC
 principles related to  the inventory development process and a discussion of the sections
 of the project QA Plan that are applicable to point sources inventory development.  The
 bulk of the presentation was taken from material developed by the auditor along with
 EPA's Emissions Inventory Branch, Technical Division. An EPA representative
 presented this material at an inventory development training session held last year.  An
 outline of the presentation is included as Attachment A.  The outline and over-heads
 were distributed during the training session.

             The training session was attended by the  State Emissions Inventory
 Development Manager and other inventory staff members.  Based on the comments
 made by the staff members during the audit, the information provided was helpful,
 although it would have been more useful had it been presented during the planning
 phase of the work. Interest was also expressed in more EPA training on emissions
 inventory and QA program development.
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                             ATTACHMENT A
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 OUTLINE: STATE AIR AGENCY SIP EMISSIONS INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT
                  QUALITY ASSURANCE TRAINING SESSION
 Presenter:    QAC

 I.           Introduction
             A.    Objective of training session and systems audit
             B.    Purpose of QA Plan and encouragement to implement it

 II.           Definition of key terms
             A.    Quality assurance and quality control
             B.    QA Plan
             C.    QA Coordinator
             D.    Systems audit

 III.          Purpose of Emissions Inventory QA Program
             A.    Reduce Errors
             B.    Maximize consistency in inventory preparation
             C.    Improve data documentation, accuracy, and completeness
             D.    Foster confidence in data
             E.    Facilitate inventory review process
             F.    Decrease inventory development cost

 IV.          Technical Considerations
             A.    Planning
                   1.     Resources for QA
                   2.     Personnel training and project staffing
                   3.     Standardizing inventory development procedures
                   4.     Prioritizing data
                   5.     Development of data validation procedures
             B.    Data Collection and Analysis
                   1.     Reputable data source
                   2.     Documentation of data reduction and calculations
                   3.     Senior Technical Review
                   4.     Completeness assessments
             C.    Data Handling
                   1.     Logging upon receipt
                   2.     Maintenance of a master  data file
                   3.     Coding and tracing data to monitor completeness and
                         facilitate retrievals
                   4.     Data corrections

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             D.     Reporting
             E.     Internal and External (EPA) Systems Audits

V.           Previous Problems with Inventories
             A.     Double counting of point sources
             B.     Poor data organization  .
             C.     Incomplete inventory

VI.          Successful Inventory Development Procedures
             A.     Use of standard forms
             B.     Documentation of validation procedures
             C.     Use of the EPA guidance to develop and implement a QA/QC
                   program
             D.     Independence of the QA Coordinator from inventory development
                   activities
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            APPENDIX B
     TECHNICAL SYSTEMS AUDIT
        CHECKLIST EXAMPLE
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            TECHNICAL SYSTEMS AUDIT CHECKLIST EXAMPLE

 The Area and Non-mobile Inventory Quality Assurance Checklist provides guidelines for
 a thorough evaluation of the inventory development program implemented by a
 contractor and state agency. It includes assessments of the following critical phases of
 the work:

      •     Planning/Management;

      •     Inventory Development;

      •     Documentation/Data Entry; and

      •     Reporting.
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                               APPENDIX B- TECHNICAL SYSTEMS AUDIT
Auditor
 NYSDEC AREA AND NON-MOBILE EMISSIONS INVENTORY
            QUALITY ASSURANCE CHECKLIST

	Date  	
Personnel Interviewed
This checklist is to be used to document the findings from the audit of activities and data
associated with area and non-road mobile emissions inventory development.  Use the
applicable parts of the checklist to identify the quality concerns associated with each
task.  Document the results and use them to generate the audit report.

Planning/Management
1. Work Plan
a. Was the work plan approved prior to commencing work?
b. Was the work plan revised?
c. If yes, were the revisions documented and approved?
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Are the resources required for the work adequate?
Were the staff adequately trained?
Was an adequate number of project personnel available to
perform the tasks assigned?
Are project meetings held two times a week or at an appropriate
interval to keep project personnel abreast of the status of the
work?
Are NYSDEC adn EPA routinely kept abreast of inventory
development milestones and problems?
Senior Technical Review
a. Were the results from senior technical peer reviews
documented?
b. Were problems identified?
Yes










No










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c. If yes, were the problems documented and resolved to the
satisfaction of the reviewer and project personnel involved?
d. If no, attach a description of the problems and how they will
be or were resolved?
8.
Was conformance to EPA guidelines checked by completing
applicable sections of the EPA Quality Review Guidelines
checklist?
Area and Non-Road Mobile Source Inventory
1. Were 1990 estimates made for the following:
a. VOC sources emitting < 10 tons per year (TPY) using
Procedures for the Preparation of Emission Inventories for
Carbon Monoxide and Precursors of Ozone, Volume I: General
Guidance for Stationary Sources (EPA-450/4-91-016)?
b. Stationary sources of nitrogen oxides (NOX) that emit
<25 TPY using the above document?
c. Stationary sources of CO that emit < 100 TPY using the
above document?
d. Other sources of VOCs, NOX, and CO by county or equivalent
city emission areas and non-attainment designations using
demographic, 1990 census, and industrial and commercial
data with appropriate AP-42 factors or other valid sources?
e. Non-road sources of VOCs, NOX, and CO using Volume IV of
the Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation!
2.
3.
4.
5.
Were area source estimates adjusted to account for point sources
to avoid double-counting?
Were estimates provided for VOCs, NOX, and CO for non-
attainment areas?
Was the approach used to determine the completeness of the
determination of all non-attainment areas described?
Were EPA guidance documents used and referenced for area and
non-road estimates?
Yes












No












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6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Were the references used to determine non-road mobile and area
sources given?
Are 1990 emissions for other non-road engine and vehicle
categories extrapolated to other NY non-attainment areas using
population as recommended by EPA?
Are the data for all of the counties applicable to this work
included? (See work plan and revisions for list of counties.)
Were all estimates reported as "0" explained?
Were estimates made from biogenic and surface impoundment
data prepared by NYSDEC reviewed prior to use?
Were pre-processed (LOTUS spreadsheets) data reviewed prior to
entry into AIRS-AMS?
Database
a. Are electronic data and hard copies compared to determine if
they agree?
b. Are all defaults clearly explained?
13.
Was the Inventory Preparation Plan developed by NYSDEC
followed?
a. If yes, is an approved copy available in the project file?
14.
Reporting
a. Was a comprehensive draft report describing the development
of the area sources inventory written and submitted to EPA
by 9/30/92?
b. Was a comprehensive final report be submitted after
completion of the point source inventory (10/15/92)?
c. Is EPA kept abreast of the need to revise these deadlines?
Yes













No













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On-Road Mobile Sources
1. Were procedural reviews of the methodology used by NYSDEC to
determine vehicle miles traveled data (VMT) and MOBILE4.1
inputs conducted by Radian?
a. Were the results from the review documented?
b. If problems were found, were they resolved to the satisfaction
of NYSDEC and Radian?
2. Were MOBILE4.1 input files checked for accuracy and
reasonableness prior to running models?
3. Were representative numbers of the VMT and MOBILE4.1
emission factors checked?
4. Was a representative number of the data entered into AIRS-AMS
checked for accuracy and completeness?
Documentation/Data Entry
1. Are the data documented in a manner that will allow
reconstruction of project activities? (notebooks, contact reports,
memos, notes to the file)
2. Was the receipt of data from NYSDEC and others documented
and the data controlled to provide a complete master file?
3. Are data sources and guidance documents identified?
4. Are telephone calls documented in project dedicated notebooks or
on telephone contact report forms?
5. Were data entry worksheets used and reviewed prior to input into
AIRS-AMS?
a. Was this review adequate to assess the accuracy and
completeness of the data?
b. Were the results from the reviews documented?
6. Were spreadsheet estimates compared to AIRS-AMS estimates to
assess the reasonableness and accuracy of the database
calculations?
Yes














No














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Reporting
1. Was each report formatted as required in the EPA guidance
document for emissions inventory reports?
2. Was a report describing the development and implementation of
the QA program written?
3. Were the procedures for determining the completeness and
accuracy of the database discussed in the inventory development
report?
4. Were the final electronic files compared to the hardcopies prior
to delivery to NYSDEC and EPA to ensure that they both agree?
5. Did the reports meet the 9/30/92 deadline?
Yes





No





 Comments:
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6/12/97                   APPENDIX C - DATA QUALITY AUDIT
            APPENDIX C
  DATA QUALITY AUDIT CHECKLIST
            (EXAMPLE 1)
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              DATA QUALITY AUDIT CHECKLIST (EXAMPLE  1)

 The Chicago Inventory QA Checklist was used to assess the quality of the planning
 documents, adequacy of the data gathering procedures, and thoroughness of the technical
 review process during the development of a toxics inventory from an existing inventory.
 This was a Level 4 inventory (see Chapter 2, Section 1 for explanation of inventory
 categories), and  the objective was to develop a preliminary estimate of HAP emissions
 based on existing inventories. Determining the validity of the existing data would be
 critical to the accuracy and  completeness of this inventory.
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     APPENDIX C-DATA QUALITY AUDIT
                         CHICAGO INVENTORY QA CHECKLIST
 1.0    GENERAL PROCEDURES
       1.1    Written Instructions, Plans
              1.1.1  Were project instructions prepared and distributed to all team
                    members?  	_____^_____^_____
                    Date:
              1.1.2  Was an Inventory Preparation Plan prepared?
                    Reviewed, and if necessary, revised?  	
                    Distributed to team members?  	
       1.2    Data Gathering
              1.2.1  Was project file set up?
                    Date:  	
              1.2.2  Are separate files maintained for each of the following source
                    categories?
          Storage, Transportation, and
                  Marketing of VOL

                     VOL Transfer
           Barge and Tanker Cleaning
            Service Station Unloading
                  Vehicle Refueling
         Gasoline Tanker Truck Leaks
           Underground Tank Losses
                        Degreasing
                      Dry Cleaning
                      Graphic Arts
                    Asphalt Paving
      Consumer/Commercial
               Solvent Use
       Agricultural Pesticide
               Application
Architectural Surface Coatings
      Automobile Refinishing
Traffic/Maintenance Coatings
                 Landfills
                   TSDFs
                  POTWs
               Incinerators
            Structure Fires
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             1.2.3  Are sufficient document/access controls in place?
                   If so, what are they?  	
             1.2.4  Are copies of completed calculation sheets placed in the appropriate
                   files?	
2.0   TECHNICAL REVIEW

      2.1    General
             2.1.1   Were "Source Category Review" forms completed (QC) for all
                   categories? 	
                   If not, list those not completed.
            2.1.2  Are project files complete?
      2.2   Individual Source Category Reviews

            2.2.1   Storage, Transportation, and Marketing of Volatile Organic Liquids
                   (VOL)

                   •     Were emissions for the following categories completed?

                         	       Barge and Tanker Cleaning

                         	       Service Station Loading (Stage I)

                         	       Vehicle Refueling

                         	       Gasoline Tank Truck Leaks

                         	       UST Breathing
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                          Were VOC emission factors adjusted for temperature and
                          RVP before applying speciation profiles?  	
                          Does QC review for this category include assessment of
                          reasonableness of estimates?  	
             2.2.2  Other Solvent Use
                          Are assumptions used for HAP cleaning machine solvent use
                          clearly stated and referenced?  	
                   •      Were graphic arts estimates adjusted by subtracting emissions
                          from point sources < 100 tons? 	
                          Were asphalt paving emissions estimated using IL DOT data
                          and assuming 95% diluent evaporation from rapid cure
                          cutbacks, 70% from medium cure cutbacks? 	
                          Was the consumer products emission estimate adjusted to
                          include nonreactive VOC HAPs (like methylene chloride)?.
                          Was it done correctly?
                         Did agricultural emissions of captan, carbaryl, lindane, and
                         trifluoralin correctly address seasonality (i.e.,  confined to
                         growing season) and application rate (i.e., accounted for
                         frequency and amount applied)?  	
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                         Verify the source of VOC emissions and speciation profiles
                         for each of the following:

Architectural Surface
Coatings
Automobile Refinishing
Traffic Markings
Bridge Painting
Proposed VOC
Emission
Source
ILSIP
ILSIP
ILSIP
ILSIP
/ if used,
or show
source




Proposed
Speciation
Profile
CARB (1991)
CARB (1991)
CARB (1992)
CARB (1992)
/ if used,
or show
source




                         Explain any deviations from plan:
                         Was information from the Methane Recovery Yearbook
                         (1991) used to adjust uncontrolled landfill VOC emissions?
                         	  If not, how was the adjustment made? 	
                         For TSDF emissions, what was the source of growth factor
                         used to adjust emissions? 	
                         Is it reasonable?
                         Was sufficient justification for its use given?
                         The IPP methodology for POTW emissions estimation
                         proposed use of emission factors from California. Was any
                         information obtained and documented that shows the use of
                         these factors is reasonable for Chicago?
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                          Were the assumptions, methods, and data sources used to
                          develop structure fires emission factors thoroughly described
                          and referenced?  	
                          Are they reasonable?
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6/12/97                   APPENDIX D - DATA QUALITY AUDIT
            APPENDIX D
  DATA QUALITY AUDIT CHECKLIST
            (EXAMPLE 2)
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             DATA QUALITY AUDIT CHECKLIST (EXAMPLE 2)

The Continuous Emissions Monitoring Systems Audit Checklist provides an example of
the type of questions that could be asked when evaluating the collection of measurement
data that are used to develop a facility's point source inventory.  The critical phases of
inventory development of concern during this audit are management/planning,
availability of resources, instrument testing, data acquisition, and the implementation of
QC measures to ensure the accuracy of the measurement data.
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                                      APPENDIX D- DATA QUALITY AUDIT
 Contract:



 Site:
 CONTINUOUS EMISSION MONITORING SYSTEMS AUDIT CHECKLIST





 	      Date:  	



	      Auditor: 	
Operation
General Check Points
1. Qualified personnel?
2. QAPP or work plan on site?
Revision # 	
3. Spare parts and support equipment
available?
4. Instrumentation and apparatus
maintained in good condition?
5. Adequate facilities?
6. Instrument certification and/or
calibration documentation
available?
7. Sample line(s) properly located to
obtain representative sample?
8. Instrument logbook and
maintenance record properly
maintained (up-to-date, entries
dated and initialed)?
Calibration Procedures
1. Calibration frequency appropriate?
2. Multipoint calibration/linearity
check performed regularly?
3. Zero point included in calibration?
Yes











No











Comments











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Operation
4. Calibration gases of acceptable
quality, analyzed within last
12 months?
5. Adequate supply of calibration
gases?
6. Calibration gas mixture appropriate
for atmosphere being sampled?
7. Appropriate record keeping
procedures used for calibration
documentation?
8. Instrument range (span) used
appropriate for measured
concentrations?
9. Calibration gas introduced so as to
check entire sampling interface
(sample lines, conditioning system,
etc.)?
Data Acquisition and Recording
System
1. Strip chart recorder used?
2. Data logging system used?
3. Appropriate sensitivity?
4. Instrument output signal checked
regularly at zero and span values?
5. Appropriate data averaging
procedure?
6. Appropriate zero offset (10%)?
7. All pertinent data recorded
(e.g., date, time, etc.)?
8. Hard copy data clearly identified
and properly stored?
Yes














No














Comments














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Operation
Quality Control Procedures
1. Calibration frequency specified?
2. Control standard used to document
day-to-day variability (precision)?
3. Specific acceptance criteria
specified for calibrations and
control sample analyses?
4. Control sample introduced so as to
check entire sampling interface?
5. Drift checks performed?
6. Control charts and/or data
summary for control sample
analyses?
Yes






No






Comments






                                  Instrumentation
Parameter






Data System


Manufacturer









Model









Serial Number









Full Scale
Range









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6/12/97              APPENDIX E - PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AUDIT
            APPENDIX E
 PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AUDIT
        CHECKLIST EXAMPLE
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 6/12/97                               APPENDIX E - PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AUDIT
        PERFORMANCE EVALUATION AUDIT CHECKLIST EXAMPLE

The Computer Audit Checklist provides guidelines for evaluating the adequacy of a
computer that could be used to calculate emissions, store inventory data, and generate
tables of results for the final inventory report.  The testing, calibrating, and evaluation of
operating procedures of instruments are all important for assuring the quality of data; a
computer is also an instrument and should be treated as such.  Because of the
dependence of the inventory staff on computers to complete the inventory, an assessment
of the testing, operation, and use of the computer would be one of the most important
audits conducted during the planning and development phases of the inventory.
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                                 AUDIT CHECKLIST
                           COMPUTER DATA ACCURACY
Procedure:   Select a date with results passing and not passing quality acceptance
             criteria, if possible. Determine if reported results accurately reflect the
             raw data. Use an alternate method to verify the accuracy of computer
             manipulations to yield calculated results.

1. Identify data maintained only on the hard drive




2. Locate and identify data maintained on hard copies




3. Are quality control data referenced to sample results? (standards,
blanks, calibrations, replicates, duplicates, spikes, instrument
conditions, surrogates, internal standards, etc.) - LAB DATA



a. Are the references to quality control data protected or can
they be easily changed?
Yes




No




NA




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b. Are the references sufficient to associate quality data with
individual sample results?
4. Are data outside of acceptance criteria flagged?
a. If yes, are actions taken described?
5. Are the detection limits for target analytes clearly defined or
referenced in the raw data? (LAB)
a. Are they accurately represented in the report?
b. Were changes made to reflect dilutions?
6. Are the data reduction steps definined in a written procedure?
a. Is the procedure sufficient to recalculate results?
b. Are the data sufficient to verify results?
c. Were errors found in the data verified?
If Yes. explain and identify results:



(use additional comment sheet if necessary)
7. Are the data accurately reported?
a. Are the units accurate?
b. Are the data accurately flagged to note bias or confidence in
the results reported?
8. Can results be traced back to the original data associated with a
specific test article or data set?
If not. describe problem:




Yes
















No
















NA
















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APPENDIX E - PERFORMANCE EVALUA TION AUDIT
                            AUDIT CHECKLIST
            COMPUTER PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION AND VALIDATION

1. Are the following documents present
a. Software management plan
b. Software development plan and results
c. Software test and acceptance plan
d. Software User's operations document
e. Software maintenance document
f. Assessment of hardware
2. Are the following documented:
a. Program
b. Table of definitions
c. System size and timing requirements
d. Definitions of subsystems
e. Requirements for:
Hardware
Electricity
Security
f. Backup and disaster recovery procedures
g. Quality requirements for:
-- Reliability
- Maintainability
Flexibility for expansion
h. Testing procedures
3. Does software management include the following:
a. Independent validation
Yes



















No



















NA



















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b. Definitions/identifications of interfaces
c. Definition of software tools
Identification of program language
Identification of network software requirements
d. Configuration control (Control, release, and storage of
master copies)
4. Is there a flow chart or text showing functional flow?
5. Are input and output fields identified?
6. Are there written procedures for software revisions?
a. Are revisions tested to determine how the entire program is
affected?


b. How are revisions implemented?


c. Are revisions documented?


7. Does the User's Guide or software description include:
a. Description of system (hardware)
b. Identification of person to contact when problems occur
c. How to access the system
d. How to input data
e. How to generate reports
f. How to update data
g. Description of error codes
h. Procedures to follow if the system goes down
Yes


















No


















NA


















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8. Do testing procedures include the following:
a. Description of test procedures to perform
b. Expected outcome
c. Documentation of results
d. Recommendation for handling problems
9. Has security be addressed (Statements or passwords to safeguard
accuracy of computer program operation)?
10. Can someone knowledgeable of the program language
understand from reading the program what it does to the data to
yield the expected or desired results (if not, explain on separate
page)
Yes






No






NA






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                             AUDIT CHECKLIST
                       COMPUTER PROGRAM OPERATION

1. Is a password required to access the system?
2. Operator Training
a. Are operators adequately trained?
b. Is training documented?
3. When testing the system, are there system delays that hamper
the job?
4. Are error messages given if an entry error is made (ex. data out-
of-range)?
5. Does the system prevent entry of data whic are out-of-range?
6. Are there prompts if fields are missed that are required for data
manipulations?
7. How are default parameters assigned by the system?



8. Does the system carry over data from one screen to the next in
order to minimize entry errors?
9. Are data entered into the central database via a computer
readable media? If yes, does the data include information
concerning:
a. The source of the data
b. When the data were collected
c. Conditions under which collected
d. Pointers to link data to quality control data
Yes














No














NA














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e. Quality control (QC) flags indicating the level of data
acceptability
10. If the data are entered by prompting the system to access a
previously existing data file, are the data validated by
a. Comparison of #/size of files transferred
b. A log which documents files transferred
c. Documenting or creating a record of the data, date, and
name of the person transferring the data
d. Periodic audits of data transfer
- Are audits documented?
11. Are data entered into the central data system via a link from an
instrument? If yes, is the following information given
a. Data generated
b. Date and time generated
c. Identification of the instrument
d. QC flags indicating the level of acceptability of the data
e. Instrument conditions (operating) (Lab)
12. If data are entered by direct link from an instrument is the data
validated by...
a. Voltage or calibration checks
b. Comparison of results
c. Comparison of hardcopy output with database contents
d. Are data reasonableness checks either built into the data
capture system or instruments?
13. Data changes
a. How are the data corrections made?

b. Are corrections verified?
Yes


















No


















NA


















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c. Are corrections documented on a written log (who, when,
authorization)
d. Is there a computer generated record of the changed and
unchanged data?
e. If changes were made to data transferred from another
source, was the original source corrected?
f. If changes are made in flags from a central data base
-- Who determines the need to make the change?
Is authorization for revision documented?
Is the change adequately documented?
14. Data Reduction, Analysis and Assessment
a. If data quality flags are used, are they defined
b. Are qualifying flags correct?
c. Can new flags be created?
If SOT how are thev created?



d. Are the mathematical expressions used by the system
available in a written format?
e. Were the mathematical expressions reviewed for accuracy?
f. Was the validation of mathematical expression documented?
g. Did revisions affect the over-all performance of data
manipulations?
h. If mathematical expressions are modified,
Is the reason for the modification documented?
-- Are old data recalculated with new formulas?
Yes















No















NA















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i. Are printouts of report modifications routinely checked for
accuracy?
By whom
-- Documented
~ Percent checked 	 %
15. Data output
a. Are there written procedures for generating data output
(graphs, charts, reports)
b. Are the data used to generate the output adequately
identified
c. After final output are generated, is the database "locked" so
that no further changes can be made without managerial
consent
d. Are output generated in a timely fashion (unusual delays be
database)
e. Are final copies of output properly archived
Secure
Precaution against fire
Limited access
f. Are reports electronically generated?
g. If reports are electronically generated, how is it done?
Direct computer link
Magnetic media
Verified upon transmission
16. Backups
a. Are system backups performed?
Yes














No














NA














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b. If backups are performed, indicate frequency

c. Are backups partial or total?
d. Is there an individual responsible for backups?
If so. who?

e. On what media are backups stored
Magnetic tape
-- Disks
- Diskettes
-- Other

f. Are media storing backups properly labelled?
g. Are backups documented?
-- Written log
Project identified
Computer system identified
-- Other

h. How are data from backups stored short term

i How are backup data stored long term

j. Are the backup data arranged for expedient retrieval from
the storage area(s)?
k. Are long-term backup data stored off site or in a location
other than the original data?
1. Is the data storage area adequate?
Security assured
Yes


















No


















NA


















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Access limited
-- Fire precautions
Environmentally controlled
17. Hardware maintenance
a. Are there procedures for conducting and documenting
preventative maintenance?
b. Is there a regularly scheduled preventative maintenance
program? Frequency

c. Is preventative maintenance documented (who, what, when)?

d. Is non-routine maintenance performed by in-house staff?
If ves, how is it documented?



e. How is non-routine maintenance documented?



f. What provisions, if anv. are made for system downtime?



Yes









No









NA









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g. Has downtime adversely afffected the project?
If ves. explain



h. If the system fails because of electrical glitches or power
outage what happens to the system?



Backup power source available

Backup starts automatically or manually

How are power failures indicated if the system is
running?

Does the system lose the data being processed?

Does the system start where it left off?


Yes







No







NA







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- If data are lost, does the system indicate the loss?

- While the system is running, is there a backup procedure
to minimize the data loss if the system goes down?

If the system goes down is the time down and time
restored easy to determine?

Yes



No



NA



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 VOLUME VI: CHAPTER 4
EVALUATING THE UNCERTAINTY OF
EMISSION ESTIMATES
July 1996
                      Prepared by:
                      Radian Corporation

                      Prepared for:
                      Quality Assurance Committee
                      Emission Inventory Improvement Program

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                                 DISCLAIMER

This document was furnished to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by Radian
Corporation, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. This report is intended to be a
final document and has been reviewed and approved for publication. The opinions,
findings, and conclusions expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.  Mention of company or product name is not
to be considered as an endorsement by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

-------
 CONTENTS
                                                                         Page
 1      Introduction	  4.1-1
       1.1  Background	  4.1-2
       1.2  Uncertainty Analysis 	  4.1-3
       1.3  EIIP Recommendations	  4.1-6

 2      Sources of Uncertainty in Emission Inventories	  4.2-1
       2.1  Variability	  4.2-2
       2.2  Parameter Uncertainty  	  4.2-5
       2.3  Model Uncertainty  	  4.2-8

 3      Qualitative Uncertainty Analysis	  4.3-1

 4      Semiquantitative Data Quality Rankings	  4.4-1
       4.1  DARS	  4.4-1
       4.2  AP-42 Emission Factor Rating System	  4.4-4
       4.3  Other Grading Systems  	  4.4-5
       4.4  GEIA Reliability Index	  4.4-7

 5      Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis	  4.5-1
       5.1  Expert Estimation Method	  4.5-1
       5.2  Propagation of Error Method  	  4.5-4
       5.3  Direct Simulation Method	  4.5-5
       5.4  Other Methods  	 4.5-12

 6      References	  4.6-1
EIIP Volume VI

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FIGURES
                                                          Page





4.5-1. Recommended IPCC Procedures for Quantifying Uncertainty  	 4.5-6
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TABLES
                                                                            Page
4.1-1   Overview of Methods Used to Estimate Emissions Uncertainty	  4.1-4

4.1-2   Preferred and Alternative Methods for Qualifying Emission Inventory
       Data 	  4.1-7

4.1-3   Comparison of Uncertainty and Data Quality for Three Estimation
       Methods for Industrial Surface Coatings	  4.1-8

4.2-1   Examples of Variability in Emission Source Estimates   	  4.2-3

4.2-2   Examples of Parameter Uncertainty in Emission Source Estimates  	4.2-6

4.2-3   Examples of Model Uncertainty in Source Emission Estimates	  4.2-9

4.3-1   Summary of Uncertainties Associated with the OCS Production-Related
       Emissions Inventory	  4.3-2

4.4-1   Preferred and Alternative Methods for Ranking Systems	  4.4-2

4.4-2   DARS Scores for Architectural Surface Coating Emissions Estimated by
       Two Different Methods  	  4.4-3

4.4-3   AP-42 Rating System for Emissions Test Data  	  4.4-5

4.4-4   AP-42 Rating System for Emission Factors	  4.4-6

4.4-5   Data Quality Codes Recommended by  the IPCC 	  4.4-8

4.5-1   Preferred and Alternative Methods for Quantifying Uncertainty  	  4.5-1

4.5-2   Comparison of VOC Emission Uncertainty Estimates Derived Using
       Three Alternative Uncertainty Estimation Methods	4.5-3

4.5-3   Estimated Coefficient of Variation for Parameters Used in  Estimating
       SO2 Emissions from Industrial and Commercial Sources	4.5-9
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TABLES  (CONTINUED)
                                                 Page
4.5-4  Estimates of Uncertainty of CO2 Emissions in Canada Preliminary 1990
     CO, Estimates in Kilotonnes  	 4.5-10
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 1
 INTRODUCTION
The quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) procedures described in other
chapters of this volume are designed to ensure that the appropriate methods and data
are used, that errors in calculations or data transcriptions are minimized, and that
documentation is adequate to reconstruct the estimates. It is important to recognize
that the resulting quality of the emission estimates is only partly determined by
adherence  to a good QA program. The quality of the emission estimates is also
determined by the uncertainty inherent in the estimates.

This chapter  deals with the determination and evaluation of the uncertainty in emission
estimates and the methodology available to do this. The goal is always to reduce
uncertainty.  To  do so, the inventory preparer must first know the sources of bias and
imprecision in the estimates; Section 2 discusses the sources of uncertainty and gives
specific examples.  The next step in  certifying the emissions inventory is to conduct a
qualitative  assessment of the sources of uncertainty in the inventory. Section 3 provides
an example of how this can be done. The third step is to develop subjective quality
indicators for the source categories;  Section 4 describes alternative approaches that
produce  subjective quality indicators. Finally, Section 5 describes several approaches for
quantitative uncertainty analysis, arranged in order of increasing complexity.

The intended uses of the emissions data should be considered before spending
significant  resources on quantifying the uncertainty and reducing it.  For example, if the
inventory for a point source is being used to show compliance with an emissions limit,
the relative accuracy is usually part of the reporting requirements.  The uncertainty
associated  with the estimate is low.

On the other hand, a national  inventory to identify and rank the relative importance of
sources of  a specific hazardous air pollutant (HAP) may not be as concerned with the
uncertainty of specific estimates. This is especially true of smaller emissions sources. If
an estimate is highly uncertain, but at worst represents only 1 percent of all the
emissions,  accurately quantifying the uncertainty is probably not a high priority.
However, a source that is  insignificant at a national level can be very important at a
local level. When viewed  from the local community's perspective, high uncertainty in
the estimated emissions may be unacceptable.
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 1.1    BACKGROUND

As discussed in Chapter 2 of this volume, the desired quality of an inventory is a
function of the intended end use. If a Level IV inventory is being prepared, the users
must be willing to accept that the estimates are not necessarily of the best possible
quality, whereas a Level I inventory implies the highest possible data quality.

It is not always possible to achieve the desired level of quality.  In some instances, the
state-of-the-science may not be sufficient to provide the level of detail desired.  In other
situations, unforeseen problems (e.g., equipment failure, survey responses not as high as
expected, activity data not available) may be encountered in the process of preparing
the estimates. In any event, an important step in preparing an emissions inventory is to
"qualify the  data." This term means to provide an assessment of how closely the desired
level of quality, or data quality objective (DQO), is met by the inventory preparer.
Ideally, the target data quality can be evaluated using a quantitative data quality
indicator (DQI).

When discussing the quality of an estimate, the term "uncertainty" is often used as an
indicator of quality, rather than "accuracy" because there is no reasonable or practical
way to determine to  emission values for comparison. Confidence  in an estimate is
generally determined by our perception of the reliability of the underlying data and
model used  to generate the emissions estimate.  For example, an annual boiler nitrogen
oxides (NOX) emission estimate generated using continuous emission monitor (CEM)
data is generally held to be more reliable (less uncertain) than an estimate based  on
fuel consumption and an accepted emission factor. However, this logic implicitly
assumes that the CEM is maintained properly, that QA and calibration procedures are
rigorously followed, and that the data capture is near 100 percent.  So, assuming that
appropriate  QA procedures are followed in both cases, the CEM estimate is assumed to
be of higher quality (i.e., more reliable and less uncertain) than the estimate based on
an emission factor.

Calculating the range, confidence interval, or other error bounds for an emission
estimate is a very important tool for assessing the uncertainty of the estimate.  However,
these statistics are not complete measures of quality because there may be systematic
errors (biases) associated with the emission estimate that are not bounded by the  range
or confidence interval estimates. In addition, uncertainty is due to many causes, one of
which is the inherent variability in the process or processes that cause the emissions.
Even if all other sources  of uncertainty were removed, the variability remains. Because
some processes are more variable than others, some will always have larger error
bounds  than others.  That does not mean that the estimates are of lower quality.  It
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 does mean that we do not have as much confidence in our ability to predict the
 emissions at a particular point in time, but that we can confidently predict a range.

 Emission inventory development and uncertainty analysis should be an iterative process.
 Once estimates of uncertainty are developed, the inventory preparer should review the
 inventory and target the significant sources with the largest uncertainty for more
 research.  The objective of this iterative process is a minimization of overall uncertainty
 in the inventory.  Several factors make this process difficult to implement:

        •     Data are not available (and not readily measurable) to quantify the
              uncertainty;

        •     The available data are insufficient to meet the data input needs of the
              statistical or numerical methods to be used to estimate uncertainty; and

        •     Reducing the uncertainty requires more resources (i.e., money and time)
              than are available.

 The solutions to the second and third problems require the expenditure of resources
 that may not be available. However, the Emission Inventory Improvement Program
 (EIIP) has developed recommendations for methods to be used to develop better
 uncertainty estimates if the necessary resources are available.  The EIIP
 recommendations for implementing uncertainty analyses are presented in  the next
 section.

 1.2   UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS

 The first step towards reducing the uncertainty associated with emission estimates is to
 understand and quantify the various sources of variability and inaccuracies in the data
 used to estimate the emissions. This analysis should include an assessment of both bias
 and imprecision in the estimates.  When identified, bias should be eliminated while
 imprecision should be minimized. The remaining sources of uncertainty in the  inventory
 should be identified and quantified if possible.

 The initial task in any emissions uncertainty analysis is the definition of the analysis
 methodology to be used to estimate emissions uncertainty.  Table 4.1-1 presents a list of
 eight general types of analyses that have been used or are currently being  used  to
 evaluate emissions inventory uncertainty. A brief overview of each general method, with
 references, is given in Table 4.1-1.  Additional discussion and examples of each  method
 are described in Sections 3 through 5 of this chapter.  The inventory specialist must be
 aware that each of the methods in Table 4.1-1 may provide different estimates of


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                               TABLE 4.1-1
      OVERVIEW OF METHODS USED TO ESTIMATE EMISSIONS UNCERTAINTY
Methodology
Qualitative
Discussion
Subjective Data
Quality Ratings
Data Attribute
Rating System
(DARS)

Expert
Estimation
Method
Propagation of
Errors Method
Direct
Simulation
Method
References
Steiner et al., 1994
U.S. EPA, 1995
Saeger, 1994
Beck et al., 1994

Linstene and Turoff, 1975
SCAQMD, 1982
Horie, 1988
Horie and Shorpe, 1989
Mangat et al., 1984
Benkovitz, 1985
Benkovitz and Oden, 1989
Balentine et al., 1994
Environment Canada,
1994
Freeman et al., 1986
Iman and Helton, 1988
Oden and Benkovitz, 1990
Efron and Tibshirani, 1991
Environment Canada,
1994
Gatz and Smith, 1995a
Gatz and Smith, 1995b
Description
Sources of uncertainty are listed and
discussed. General direction of bias,
and relative magnitude of imprecision
are given if known.
Subjective rankings based on
professional judgement are assigned to
each emission factor or parameter.
Numerical values representing relative
uncertainty are assigned through
objective methods.

Emission distribution parameters (i.e.,
mean, standard deviation, and
distribution type) are estimated by
experts. Simple analytical and graphical
techniques can then be used to estimate
confidence limits from the assumed
distributional data. In the Delphi
method, expert judgement is used to
estimate uncertainty directly.
Emission parameter means and standard
deviations are estimated using expert
judgement, measurements, or other
methods. Standard statistical techniques
of error propagation typically based
upon Taylor's series expansions are then
used to estimate the composite
uncertainty.
Monte Carlo, Latin hypercube, bootstrap
(resampling), and other numerical
methods are used to estimate directly
the central value and confidence
intervals of individual emission
estimates. In the Monte Carlo method,
expert judgement is used to estimate the
values of the distribution parameters
prior to performance of the Monte
Carlo simulation. Other methods
require no such assumptions.
Approximate
Level of
Effort3
<100 hrs
<100hrs
<500 hrs

<500hrs
<500hrs
< 1,000 hrs
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                                         TABLE 4.1-1

                                         (CONTINUED)


Methodology
Direct or
Indirect
Measurement
(Validation)
Method6




Receptor
Modeling
(Source
Apportionment)
Methodb






Inverse Air
Quality
Modeling
Method"



References
Pierson et al., 1990
Spellicy et al., 1992
Fujita et al., 1992
Peer et al., 1992
Mitchell et al., 1995
Claiborn et al., 1995



Watson et al., 1984
Lowenthal et al., 1992
Chow et al., 1992
Scheff et al., 1995







Hartley and Prinn, 1993
Chang et al., 1993
Chang et al., 1995
Mulholland and Seinfeld,
1995


Description
Direct or indirect field measurement of
emissions are used to compute emissions
and emissions uncertainty directly.
Methods include direct measurement
such as stack sampling and indirect
measurement such as tracer studies.
These methods also provide data for
validating emission estimates and
emission models.
Receptor modeling is an independent
means to estimate the relative
contribution of specific source types to
observed air quality measurements. The
method works best for nonreactive
pollutants for which unique emission
composition "fingerprints" exist for all
significant source categories. The
method provides a measure of the
relative contribution of each source type
but not absolute emission estimates.
Air quality simulation models are used
in an inverse, iterative approach to
estimate the emissions that would be
required to produce the observed
concentrations fields.
Approximate
Level of
Effort8
> 1,000 hrs








> 1,000 hrs










> 1,000 hrs




 a  The levels shown are a relative level of effort, including data collection. The actual effort will depend
   upon the scope of work implemented.
   These methods are described in Chapter 3, Section 9, "Emission Estimation Validation" of this volume.
   They can be used to develop estimates of uncertainty as well.
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CHAPTER 4 - EVALUA TING UNCERTAINTY                                        7/12/96
uncertainty when applied to the same data set.  These differences range from slight to
significant. A method should be chosen and applied consistently to the inventory
categories. If different methods are used to develop different source groups,
comparisons between the uncertainty results may not be meaningful.  The overall goal
of any emissions uncertainty analysis is likely to be the development of confidence limits
about the mean of emission estimates from each source type analyzed.  The significance
level assumed for the confidence limits, generally 90 or 95 percent, is a function of the
quality of the input data available and the use to which the uncertainty estimates will be
put. It is up to the analyst for each study to determine the appropriate significance level
for his or her study.

1.3   EIIP  RECOMMENDATIONS

The preferred and alternative methods of qualifying emissions inventory data are
summarized in Table 4.1-2.  Note that there are two aspects to these recommendations.
The first is that all three elements-qualitative assessment, ranking, and quantitative
uncertainty—are included; the second is that different methods are preferred for
completing these three elements.  Inventory preparers are not constrained to the
combinations of elements shown in this table; rather, they should develop a plan for
qualifying the data that is most suitable for the specific situation. The methods shown
are the minimum recommended for the level shown.

As discussed above, the lack of necessary data is a significant limitation in the
development of emission inventory uncertainty estimates. For these instances, the  EIIP
recommends use of ranking methods.  The EIIP preferred ranking method is the Data
Attribute Rating System (DARS).  Because of its potential to provide significant
information on emissions inventory uncertainty, the EIIP has focused on the DARS
method for further development.

The DARS method addresses four major sources of uncertainty or error in both the
emission factor and the activity data. Numerical scores are assigned based on
predefined criteria, and a composite score is computed to provide an overall indicator of
the relative quality of the estimate.  While DARS does address uncertainty in a
subjective way (i.e., the higher the DARS score, the more confidence or certainty we
have about the estimate), it does not quantify the imprecision of the estimate. For this
reason, the EIIP strongly encourages the additional use of quantitative methods to
calculate confidence intervals (or other measures of the dispersion of the estimate).

For many area sources, the preferred method is to conduct a survey of facilities in the
inventory region to gather more accurate activity and emissions data.  The value of
using this more resource-intensive approach is shown in Table 4.1-3. This table shows


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                                                            TABLE 4. 1-2
f
PREFERRED  AND ALTERNATIVE  METHODS FOR QUALIFYING EMISSION INVENTORY DATA
       Preferred
       (Level 1)
      Alternative
      (Level 1 or 2)
       Other
       Methods
       (Level 3)
       Other
       Methods
       (Level 4)
                                         Qualitative
     Provide a qualitative assessment of uncertainty,
     addressing bias and imprecision of key data
     elements; indicate direction of bias and relative
     magnitude of imprecision where possible.  Provide
     any statistical measures of data dispersion that are
     available.
     Provide a qualitative assessment of uncertainty,
     addressing bias and imprecision of key data
     elements; indicate direction of bias and relative
     magnitude of imprecision where possible.  Provide
     any statistical measures of data dispersion that are
     available.
     Provide a qualitative assessment of uncertainty,
     addressing bias and imprecision of key data
     elements; indicate direction of bias and relative
     magnitude of imprecision where possible.  Provide
     any statistical measures of data dispersion that are
     available.
     Provide a qualitative assessment of uncertainty,
     addressing bias and imprecision of key data
     elements; indicate direction of bias and relative
     magnitude of imprecision where possible.  Provide
     any statistical measures of data dispersion that are
     available.
                                                                Ranking3
For each source contributing
to the top 90% of emissions,
provide a subjective relative
ranking of the quality of the
estimate.
For each source contributing
to the top 90% of emissions,
provide a subjective relative
ranking of the quality of the
estimate.
Rank sources from largest to
smallest; provide subjective
relative ranking for as many
as possible (starting with
largest).
None.
                                Quantitative Uncertainty
Quantify the range of the
estimates as a 90%
confidence level for all
                                                                                                      sources.
Quantify the range of
estimates at the 90%
confidence level for the top
10 sources in the point, area,
on-road mobile, non-road
mobile, and biogenic
categories.
None.
                                    I
None.
       The EIIP preferred ranking method is DARS.
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                                   TABLE 4.1-3

     COMPARISON OF UNCERTAINTY AND DATA QUALITY FOR THREE ESTIMATION
                  METHODS FOR INDUSTRIAL SURFACE COATINGS
Method
Per Capita
Per Employee
Survey
Emissions of
VOCs (tpy)
7423
589
198
Assessment of
Imprecision
Very high3
High3
±40%b
DARS
Score
0.15
0.43
0.86
Level of Effort
(hours)
1
200
300
a Qualitative assessment.
b 90% confidence interval based on survey data.

the estimated emissions for industrial surface coatings in the Houston area. The first
two estimates were calculated using volatile organic compound (VOC) per capita and
per employee factors, respectively, and then using standard speciation profiles to
allocate the emissions to individual chemical species (speciation).  The third estimate
was based on a survey of Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes included in this
category.  A telephone survey of 198 facilities was first used to determine what fraction
of the surveyed facilities actually were sources of hazardous air pollutant (HAP)
emissions.  (Note:  this survey was designed primarily as a survey of organic HAP
emissions, but data on total VOCs were also collected. Only the VOC results are used
here as an example.) The total number of facilities (416)  in the SIC group was then
multiplied by the survey fraction of emitting sources to give an estimate of the total
number of emitting sources.  A subset of 32 sites were then visited and  solvent use data
were collected. This information included material safety  data sheets (MSDSs)
documenting solvent composition and the total annual volume of solvent.  From this
data set, emission factors for each pollutant were developed on a per facility basis, and
used with  the estimated number of facilities to estimate  VOC emissions in the Houston
area.

The estimated VOC emissions as calculated in tons per year (tpy) by each method are
given in Table 4.1-3,  along with an analysis of the uncertainty, the DARS  scores for
each,  and  an estimate of the number of labor hours required for each method.  As is
clearly shown, the per capita estimate requires very little effort, but produces an
estimate of very high uncertainty. This low-cost estimate is also shown to overestimate
emissions  by an order of magnitude for this case.
4.1-8
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 The second approach requires an intermediate expenditure of time but produces
 estimates closer to the best estimate.  (For this specific example, however, the estimated
 emissions would have been twice as high if the number of employees had not been
 adjusted using the phone survey results.) The third approach targeted uncertainty in
 both the factor and in the activity data; while considerably more resources were
 required to generate this estimate, the results are dramatic both in the decrease in
 estimated emissions and in the increase  in quality.

 In this example, the higher the quality of the estimate, the lower the emissions.  This
 will not always be the case; because the  per capita and per employee factors are based
 on national averages,  these factors will over- and underestimate emissions for specific
 regions (assuming that the national estimates are not biased in some way). The table
 does not include an assessment of possible bias.  All methods potentially overestimate
 emissions (i.e., positive bias) because they do not account for non-air losses.  However,
 the latter two possibly have a negative bias in that potential respondents are  more likely
 to decline to answer when they are a source than when they are not.
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 SOURCES  OF  UNCERTAINTY  IN
 EMISSION   INVENTORIES
 Estimates in emission inventories are nearly always the result of modeling of one form
 or another. The simplest emissions modeling method is the use of an emission factor
 multiplied by an activity level to approximate emissions. Statistical models (such as
 regression models) are a more sophisticated way to achieve the same objective. Or,
 more complex models such as the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS) or the
 Mobile Source Emissions Model MOBILESa use detailed input data to generate
 emission estimates or factors. Temporal and spatial allocation  of emissions may require
 further modeling through the use of statistical analysis or surrogate variables to
 distribute the emissions data or underlying activity to a grid at a specified temporal
 resolution.  In all cases, uncertainty is associated with the development and adjustment
 of emission estimates.

 Uncertainty in emission estimates is due to a variety of causes.  First, there is inherent
 variability in the processes producing the emissions.  For example, sulfur dioxide (SO2)
 emissions from combustion sources fluctuate with the sulfur content of the fuel and the
 process load.  For other sources, uncertainty results from variation in the environmental
 factors that produce the emissions (e.g., biogenic emissions vary with temperature,
 sunlight intensity, exposed leaf surface area, and other environmental factors).  Other
 sources of uncertainty in emission estimates stem from the methods, models, and
 assumptions used to fill in our incomplete knowledge about the emission process and
 allow simplistic estimation of emissions  from highly complex processes. Still other
 uncertainty comes from the measurement methods and instruments themselves. Finally,
 random  errors—usually stemming from human errors or naturally occurring but
 unforeseeable events-introduce uncertainty.

 The term uncertainty comprises  two types of error in estimation: bias and imprecision.
 A bias is a consistent difference between a measurement and its true value that is not
 due to random chance. In an emissions inventory, bias can result from an emissions
 estimation process in which a systematic error occurs because some aspect of the
 emissions inventory process is misrepresented or is not taken into account. For
 example, if the emission factor for a given source category was developed from a
 nonrepresentative sample of source types, the emission factor will produce a biased
 estimate of emissions.  Bias may also  result due to one's inability to obtain a


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comprehensive set of measurements for all conditions producing emissions (i.e., one
cannot perform source sampling for all conditions under which the source may operate).
A common example of bias is the use of solvent consumption as a surrogate for
emissions; if the disposal of waste solvent or other nonair releases are ignored, this
approach consistently overestimates emissions (i.e., positive bias).

In contrast to  bias, imprecision in a  parameter is the difference due to random error or
fluctuations between a measurement and its true value.  Multiple measurements of the
parameter will differ, but~if the measurements are nonbiased-the measurements will
cluster about the true value of the parameter. This imprecision is caused by sampling
error and human error, as well as by the natural fluctuations in the process being
measured. Emissions data variability results from a number of causes including
temporal or spatial fluctuations in data used to estimate emissions (e.g., the temporal
variation in the fuel sulfur content,  heating value, and load for an industrial boiler).  In
addition, there are inherent differences in individual emission sources in that no two
sources or operations can be exactly identical.

The factors producing uncertainty in emissions data can be separated into three general
classes:  variability, parameter uncertainty, and model uncertainty. This system of
classifying uncertainty is based on a discussion by Finkel (1990) of uncertainty in risk
assessment. In the  following section, these concepts are applied to the understanding
and estimation of uncertainty in emission estimates.

2.1    VARIABILITY
Variability is inherent in the process that produces emissions.  If all other sources of
uncertainty were removed, the inherent variability would still make it impossible to
precisely specify emissions at a certain point in time and space. Some processes have
very little natural variability, others have a lot. There are two major components of the
variability that occur in emissions estimates and the data used  to create the emissions
estimates.  The first component is the uncertainty introduced by variation from source to
source (spatial uncertainty) and the second component is within source variation
(temporal uncertainty).  Table 4.2-1 presents examples of these two sources of variability
in emission sources.

Source-to-source differences,  such as the vehicle fleet  composition between urban areas,
differences in the process operation of two refineries,  and  differences in the physical
attributes of similar boilers, introduce imprecision into estimates of emissions, emission
factors, and activity data.  However, even if all source-to-source uncertainty were
eliminated, there would still be uncertainty in emission estimates resulting from within-
source (temporal) variability. Factors such as the change in equipment operating


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5
                                                            TABLE 4.2-1
                                 EXAMPLES OF VARIABILITY IN EMISSION SOURCE ESTIMATES
                                                                                                                      CJ)
        Source of
       Variability
                      Examples of Causes
           Ways to Minimize Effect
      Inherent
      variability
      between
      sources
Environmental factors vary spatially (e.g., application rate, soil
moisture, ambient temperature, isolation when determining VOC
emissions from a pesticide application).

Hourly/daily/weekly/seasonal variations in activity (e.g., seasonal
agricultural activities, business day versus weekend activities,
morning/evening commute, batch processing operations).

Annual variability in activity (e.g., heating and cooling demand,
economic growth).

Processes or activities included in the category are not uniform
(e.g., product formulations vary between manufacturers, product
can be produced using several processes).
Identify environmental factors responsible for
variation in source emissions or activity.

Make sure the averaging tune of the emission
factor and activity data are appropriate for
temporal scale of emission estimates desired.

If possible, subdivide category to create more
uniform subcategories.
i
ti
      Inherent
      variability
      within a
      source
Source emissions and effectiveness of emission control systems on
a source can be a function of age  and maintenance history of the
source.

Load or production variability of a source (e.g., dry cleaning
emissions depend upon demand that can vary day to day).

Variation in fuel characteristics and raw materials input to an
industrial process (both within-specification and outside-
specification).

Inherent differences in two similar pieces of equipment (i.e., no
two boilers can be exactly the same).
Detail age and maintenance history of all
sources.

Document variability in load and production for
the time scale of interest.

Document fuel, raw material, and processing
variability for a given source, particularly hi
batch processing operations.

Quantify physical differences between individual
pieces of equipment (e.g., type of emission
control system, modifications to  original
equipment).
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characteristics with age, variation in fuels, load fluctuations, and maintenance history all
contribute to the variability of emission estimates for a single source.

An incomplete understanding of the variability in a process can lead to systematic errors
in estimation. For example, emissions due to  the application of pesticides are highly
variable.  Rather than being entirely random, however, the emissions are a complex
function of the volatility of the solvents in the  pesticide, existing meteorological
conditions, the amount and  type of vegetation  sprayed, the method of application, and
the effect of biological organisms that can metabolize the  pesticide. However, because
the form and magnitude of these complex relationships are unknown, the inventory
preparer tends to "be conservative" and assume that all the solvent applied is emitted.
Even when an adjustment is made (e.g., assume 90 percent is emitted), that adjustment
is often an expert judgement that may still produce biased results.  Because adjustments
that are not supported by data introduce an unknown bias, the tendency is to estimate
high so that the direction  (if not the magnitude) is known.

Most sources show some sort of temporal variation because of variability in activity
patterns.  For example, residential fuel consumption is higher in the winter than in the
summer.  Commercial or industrial activity tends to be greater on weekdays than on
weekends. Other sources have variable emissions  due to variability in load, operation,
or fuel composition. For example, municipal solid waste combustors are characterized
by spikes  in SO2 emissions that are associated  with the random feed into the combustor
of individual waste elements with large, and highly variable, sulfur contents. For these
variable sources, activity data (i.e., fuel composition and feed rate) must be known to at
least the temporal resolution required for the emission estimates in order to minimize
imprecision in the emission  estimates.

For many sources, the main recognized  source of variability in emissions is temporal
fluctuations in activity, which are usually greatest on a daily or weekly basis (e.g.,
weekday activity rates tend to be higher than weekend rates).  Some sources vary
significantly between years, particularly if emissions are driven by extreme events (e.g.,
chemical spills and extreme meteorological conditions).

The uncertainty due to source variability should be quantified and minimized whenever
possible.  Many times it is possible to attribute a portion of the emission uncertainty to
a given source of variation.  However, it is never possible  to eliminate all imprecision in
emission estimates. For example, it would not be feasible to obtain hourly use rates of
dry cleaning fluids at all dry cleaning establishments in an urban area.  If an estimate of
the confidence interval (or other measure of dispersion) is available for a given
parameter, that portion of uncertainty that is attributable to that parameter can
potentially be quantified.  However, other sources  of variability may not be quantifiable;
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 for example, source production data may be available on an hourly or daily basis, but
 detailed fuel sulfur content is known only as an annual average.

 Good inventories will minimize the uncertainty due to temporal variability by ensuring
 that input emission factors and activity data match the scale of the inventory. If factors
 or activity have to be scaled up or down, adjustments must be made that account for
 temporal variability.  Similarly, any other adjustments to the calculation to account for
 variability should be performed.

 2.2   PARAMETER  UNCERTAINTY

 Parameter uncertainty is caused by three types of errors: measurement errors, sampling
 errors, and systematic errors (also called nonrandom error  or bias). Examples of these
 types of parameter errors are given in Table 4.2-2.

 Measurement errors occur because of the imprecision of the instrument or method used
 to measure the parameters of interest.  Where emissions are measured directly, the
 measurement error of a particular method is usually known; the U.S. Environmental
 Protection Agency (EPA) typically uses the concept of relative  accuracy to describe the
 performance of a measurement method (or device) with respect to an EPA Reference
 Method.

 A more  common measurement error for area sources occurs due to misclassification.
 For example, area source categories are frequently identified by SIC group, and the
 number  of employees or facilities in a particular SIC group are used as the activity data.
 However, some SIC groups encompass a wide variety of industrial processes  and
 activities, not all of which are really sources of emissions.  This issue can still be a
 problem even when a survey is used to gather activity data  within a SIC group if the
 sample design does not account for subpopulations adequately. For example, different
 manufacturing processes  may be used to produce the same  product; the ratio of
 emissions to  employees may be different for these processes.  In addition, facilities are
 sometimes listed under an incorrect SIC or may have more than one SIC. Any of these
 errors results in misclassification of data and adds to our uncertainty about the
 emissions estimates.

 Sampling error is an important factor when one or more of the parameters (i.e., activity,
 factors, or emissions) are to be estimated from a sample of the population.  While most
 people recognize the importance of an adequate sample size, obtaining an adequate
 sample size is often difficult. Furthermore, sample data are usually used to estimate the
 arithmetic mean value from which the population mean is extrapolated.  This approach
 assumes  that the underlying data are normally distributed-an assumption that is often
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                                                           TABLE 4.2-2
                        EXAMPLES OF PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY IN EMISSION SOURCE ESTIMATES
                                                                                                                i
                                                                                                                tJ
                                                                                                                3
         Source of
        Parameter
        Uncertainty
                  Examples of Causes
              Ways to Minimize Effect
      Measurement
      errors in
      activity data
      and emission
      factors
Inherent random error in measurement equipment
(e.g., selected anemometer is only accurate to the nearest
0.1 m/sec, air flow meter is accurate to only 10% of
measured flow, CEM has relative accuracy of 12%).

Monitoring equipment error tolerance too high.

Misclassification of activity data (e.g., wrong area source
SIC category used).
Use monitoring equipment adequate to gather data
required (i.e., do not use an instrument accurate to
only 1.0 ppm if 0.1 ppm levels are required).

Establish and follow a data collection protocol
including performance QA measurements (i.e., field
blanks, duplicate samples or data entry).

Verify appropriateness of all activity and emission
factor data.
§

I
2
                                                                                                                                      "H
      Sampling
      (random)
      error in
      activity data
      and emission
      factors
Inadequate sample size.

Errors in performance of the sampling (e.g., improper
probe placement in stack, misread dials, failure to follow
the sampling protocol).

Sampling equipment or source not in a stable or steady-
state mode (i.e., monitoring equipment not at a stable
temperature, source subject to load fluctuations,  data
collection during atypical production periods).

Sampling protocol or sampling equipment inadequate to
produce required resolution in collected data.
Establish sample size required to meet analytical needs
as part of sampling protocol.

Establish and follow a monitoring (or sampling)
protocol.

Audit all monitoring results to ensure compliance with
proper procedures and sampling protocols.

Perform a defined number of measurements as QA
measurements (i.e., field blanks, duplicate samples or
data entry).
                                                                                                                                      
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I
                                       TABLE 4.2-2

                                        CONTINUED
        Source of
        Parameter
       Uncertainty
       Systematic
       errors (bias)
                   Examples of Causes
Inherent bias in a survey (e.g., only largest facilities are
surveyed and they do not reflect activities at smaller
facilities).

Misclassification of data (e.g., SIC group used does not
accurately define activities of facility).

Incorrect assumption (e.g., assuming 100% rule compliance
and ignoring rule effectiveness).

Improper calibration of monitoring equipment.

Sampling methodology improper for sources sampled.

Use of nonrepresentative meteorological data in estimation
procedures (e.g., temperature or wind speed data used are
not valid for the situation).
              Ways to Minimize Effect
Develop and follow a sampling or inventory
development protocol.

Obtain external review of methods by a qualified
expert.

Make sure that characteristics of the source population
are understood and accounted for in the sampling or
emission estimation methods.

Validate all assumptions.

Compare emission estimation or sampling results to
similar data from other studies.

Perform mass  balance or other simple, common sense
checks to ensure reasonableness of data.
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violated (see Chapter 3, Section 7, of this volume).  If the underlying data are extremely
skewed, a small sample size can lead to very large errors in estimating means.  Again,
sampling error can be minimized if proper statistical approaches are used, QA
procedures are followed, and sample sizes are adequate and properly obtained.

Systematic errors (bias) are the most problematic sources of parameter uncertainty
because they are the most difficult to detect and reduce. They occur primarily because
of an inherent flaw in the data-gathering process or  in the assumptions used to estimate
emissions.  A common way that this happens is if the population to be sampled is not
well defined, and a sample (thought to be random) is actually nonrandom. This is a
fairly common problem for certain types of industries. For example, consider a local
survey of solvent use by auto body refinishing shops.  One approach would be to
develop a list of facilities from business registration  or other state/local business listings.
However,  this industry has a very large number of "backyard" operations that are  not
identified  in these official lists.  Therefore, any sample that did not recognize this fact
would have systematic sampling errors.

As part of the emissions inventory  development process, the goal is to reduce all known
sources of bias, both across and within  sources.  If a bias is known to exist, then effort
should be initiated to quantify and remove the bias.  However, in practice this may be
difficult to accomplish because of a lack of resources, data, or other factors.  For
example, the source testing used to develop the  emission factors for a given class  of
sources could potentially  exclude a key source type.  Because this key source type would
not be represented in the emission factor, the emission factor would potentially contain
a known (or suspected) bias.  However, resources may not be available to perform the
needed source testing to develop a revised emission  factor incorporating this key source
type.  Consequently, a known bias would exist in the emission inventory but would not
be readily susceptible to elimination.

2.3    MODEL UNCERTAINTY

Model uncertainty applies to most  emission estimates. In this context, a model is a
simplified  representation  of the processes leading to the emissions.  Model uncertainty
stems from the inability to simulate the emission process completely due to the use of
surrogate variables, exclusion of variables from the computation process, and over-
simplification of emission process by the model.  Table 4.2-3 presents examples of
model uncertainty in emission estimates.
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                                                            TABLE 4.2-3
    EXAMPLES OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN SOURCE EMISSION ESTIMATES
      Source of Model
        Uncertainty
                      Examples of Causes
          Ways to Minimize Effect
      Use of
      surrogate
      variables
Surrogate variable is an incomplete representation of the activity or
variable desired (e.g., factors in addition to heating degree days
[HDD] contribute to the demand for space heating).

Use of surrogates can mask underlying relationships between
activity data and emissions.
Enhance emission models to account for
more fundamental parameters.

Develop emission factors based on
statistically correlated surrogates.

Obtain site-specific data through statistically
valid surveys and with site units so that
surrogate data use can be minimized.
      Model
      simplification/
      over-
      simplification
Data parameterized (separated into classes) rather than used as
discrete values (e.g., speeds in motor vehicle emission factor models
input as discrete classes, traffic network input as links and nodes).

Reduction of a complex dependency to a single factor (e.g.,
emissions of biogenic isoprene are a complicated function of the
temperature and the wavelength distribution of incoming sunlight at
the leaf surface but are typically modeled as a function of ambient
temperature and sunlight intensity at a single wavelength).

Emission model contains an invalid representation of the process
producing emissions (e.g., older versions of motor vehicle emission
factor models significantly underestimated evaporative VOC
emissions).
Verify the theoretical basis for all models.

Validate emissions models against
independent data.

Use continuous variable representations
where feasible and appropriate.
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Most emission estimates are the product of a series of quasi-independent parameters
(i.e., emission factor, activity data, control factor, temporal adjustment) of the form

                            ER, = pj x  p2  x . .  .  x  Pn                         (1)

where:

       ERt  =     Emission rate for time t;
       Pi    =     Parameter used to estimates emissions, where i = 1, 2, . . ., n;
       n    =     Number of parameters.

This same general equation, or linear model, applies to the simple case of an emission
factor (e.g., grams per kilogram combusted) times an activity datum (e.g., number of
kilograms combusted per day) as well as to the complex case where a model such as
MOBILESa or BEIS are used (although nonlinear terms may be introduced as well).

There are a number of real-world problems and complexities associated  with estimating
emissions uncertainty when the linear model is used to develop the emission inventory.
These problems include the inherent (and generally erroneous) assumption of
independence of the individual parameters, the complications inherent in obtaining
temporal, spatial, and speciated estimates of emissions from average values of emissions
(e.g., obtaining gridded, speciated, hourly emission estimates from annual county-wide
emission estimates), the limited amount of data that may be available for validation of
estimates, and the difficulty posed by temporal and spatial data dependencies in
validating those estimates even when data are available.

The use of surrogate variables is common in area source methods where population or
the number of employees are used as surrogates for emission activities.  The uncertainty
in using these surrogates is especially high when emissions for a small region (i.e.,
county or smaller area) are estimated using a national average factor.  Local variations
in activity are not necessarily accounted for by population or employment. A common
example is found  in large cities that have the corporate headquarters for an industry.
The number of employees may be high, but all of the manufacturing may be occurring
in other areas.

Per capita emission  factors are often an oversimplification of emission processes. For
example, the  consumer/commercial solvent use factors are based on a national survey of
the solvent constituents of various consumer products. From this data set, the national
average consumption per person was calculated for various product groups (see
Volume III, Chapter 5 of the EHP series).  These factors may not account for solvent
that is not emitted because it is either disposed of (in containers) or washed down the
drain; furthermore, publicly owned treatment works (POTW) or landfill emissions may

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 include these solvents, and emissions may therefore be double-counted.  The factors also
 do not reflect regional variation in product usage, so when used to calculate emissions
 on a county basis, they are likely to over- or underestimate.

 Point source emissions are also often based on the use of surrogates, although usually
 the surrogate is very closely related to  the emissive activity. Fuel consumption, for
 example, is a surrogate for fuel combustion in a specific type of boiler.  When an
 emission factor is used to estimate point source emissions, the assumption is that the
 design, processes, and test conditions of the original boiler (from which test data were
 derived)  are good approximations of the boiler to which the factor is being applied.
 The further this assumption is from reality, the more uncertainty there is regarding the
 accuracy of the emission estimate.

 This discussion of uncertainty in emissions inventories is by no means exhaustive.  More
 details are provided in the specific volumes and chapters for point, area, mobile, and
 biogenic  source categories.  The EIIP has sought to encourage the reduction in
 uncertainty in their selection of "preferred" methods wherever possible.  Emission
 factors are usually not the best choice if reducing uncertainty is the criterion; direct or
 indirect measurements, surveys, and other methods targeting the specific source are
 preferred. Unfortunately, this is not always practical. It is important that inventory
 preparers recognize the sources of uncertainty,  quantify it, and reduce it as much as is
 practical.
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 QUALITATIVE  UNCERTAINTY
 ANALYSIS
The simplest approach for estimating uncertainty is to discuss all known and suspected
sources of bias and imprecision in the inventory.  If possible, the direction (over- or
underestimates) of any biases and relative magnitude (e.g., factor of two, order of
magnitude) of the specific source of uncertainty should be stated. Sometimes standard
deviations, confidence limits, or other statistics are available for some of the variables
used to develop the inventory; if so, those statistics should be documented and their
contribution to overall accuracy of the estimates should be discussed.

The qualitative uncertainty assessment can be presented in narrative form.  However,
tables provide a more systematic and concise method of summarizing the uncertainty.
An example of a qualitative uncertainty assessment is shown in Table 4.3-1.  This table
is part of a report describing the results of the QA/QC procedures used during
development of an inventory of emissions from offshore oil production facilities (Steiner
et al., 1994).  Many of the key sources of uncertainty shown are generally applicable to
any inventory (e.g., survey respondent expertise and applicability/usage  components). It
is more important to list and discuss issues that are particularly relevant. For example,
the authors of this study do  a good job of describing uncertainties in their survey data.

A table such as  this one is a good method for presenting the results of a qualitative
assessment. One additional column that describes the direction (positive or negative) of
any biases or  the relative magnitude of any imprecision (if these are known) would
provide additional valuable information to the assessment.
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                                           TABLE 4.3-1



SUMMARY OF UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCS PRODUCTION-RELATED EMISSIONS INVENTORY3
I
Inventory
Component
Survey
Emissions
Methodology
Basis of Uncertainty
Survey Respondent
Expertise
Unknown Answers
Incorrect Responses
Data Entry
Omitted Sources
Emission Factors
Fugitive Emissions
Applicability/Usage
Description
Different levels of expertise of survey recipients could lead to incorrect or incomplete survey answers because of lack of
understanding or incorrect interpretation.
Some of the equipment on the platforms is very old and equipment ratings cannot be read or the equipment has been
modified and manufacturers' ratings no longer are applicable.
Most likely some respondents did not read the directions, which could lead to aberrant or incomplete answers. Many of the
problems corrected in the database were a result of incorrect units. Some of the flow rates in the survey were metered,
others were not metered, and survey respondent had to guess activity levels.
Even though we used a double data entry system to enter the data to minimize typographical and data omission errors, some
may have occurred. In addition, some respondents had their survey responses typed onto forms by support staff, which
could lead to data entry errors.
15 percent of the companies operating platforms in the GOM contacted did not return the survey. Some of those
companies may have multiple platforms. All of the major corporations operating in the Gulf returned their surveys.
Some emissions sources (e.g., equipment) on the platforms may have been omitted because the survey respondent neglected
to include information necessary.
6 percent of the helicopter companies contacted did not return the survey. Only the smaller helicopter companies did not
return their survey.
26 percent of the vessel companies contacted did not return the survey. The companies that did not return the surveys are
the smaller operations.
Emission factors represent an average population. Gulf population may not be representative of the emission factor mix.
An empirical formula derived from Pacific OCS facilities was used. Gulf OCS platforms were not exactly configured as
those in Pacific and product mix of oil and gas was different.
Even though the methodologies were reviewed for applicability, there is the possibility that a more applicable emissions
methodology exists or that the methodology was applied incorrectly because of an incorrect assumption.
                                                                                                          §
                                                                                                          r-
                                                                                                          s
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                                                                                                          >H
     a Source:  Steiner et al., 1994. OCS = outer continental shelf. COM * Gulf of Mexico.
                                                                                                          01

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SEMIQUANTITATIVE  DATA  QUALITY
RANKINGS
Semiquantitative ranking methodologies are relatively easy to implement and can be
used where detailed data on emissions are unavailable. A drawback of their use is that
it can be difficult to prevent logical inconsistencies (i.e., A > B, B > C, and C > A)
because subjective criteria are applied by different people at different times. Some
older methods such as those used for AP-42 emission factors (U.S. EPA, 1995) rely on a
ranking for each emission factor from A (best) to E (worst). No numerical uncertainty
values are associated with each rating. Newer methods such as DARS (Beck et al.,
1994) assign a numerical value to the quality of the various components of the emissions
inventory and allow numerical manipulation of the uncertainty estimates of the system.

The DARS and other ranking methods are discussed below. Table 4.4-1 summarizes
the preferred and alternative methods for ranking systems.

                              TABLE 4.4-1

         PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS FOR RANKING SYSTEMS
Preferred
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Provide DARS scores for all sources.
Provide DARS scores for the largest sources (specify criteria used
to identify "largest").
Use a letter grade or numerical scheme to rank data quality;
provide rules and rationale used to develop scores and make sure
system is used consistently throughout the inventory.
4.1   DARS

The Data Attribute Rating System or DARS is currently under evaluation by the EIIP's
Quality Assurance Committee (QAC). EPA originally developed DARS to assist in
evaluating country-specific inventories of greenhouse gases.  The system disaggregates

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emission estimates into emission factors and activity data, then assigns a numerical score
to each of these two components.  Each score is based on what is known about the
factor and activity parameters, such as the specificity to the source category, spatial
(geographical) congruity, measurement of estimation techniques employed, and temporal
congruity. The resulting emission factor and activity data scores are combined to arrive
at an overall confidence rating for the inventory.

DARS defines certain classifying attributes that are believed to influence the accuracy,
appropriateness, and reliability of an emission factor or activity and derived emission
estimates. This approach is quantitative in that it uses numeric scores; however, scoring
is based on qualitative and often subjective assessments. DARS also disaggregates
specific attributes of the data and methods utilized in development of the inventory, thus
providing perspective on the reason for the overall rating.

The DARS approach, when applied systematically by inventory analysts,  can be used to
provide a measure of the merits of one emission estimate relative to another.  The
proposed  inventory  data rating system cannot guarantee that an emission inventory with
a higher overall rating  is of better quality, or more accurate, or closer to the true value.
The inventory with the higher overall rating is likely to be a better estimate, given the
techniques and methodologies employed in its development.

An example of DARS scores for the architectural  surface coatings area source category
is shown in Table 4.4-2. Two alternative methods were used to estimate emissions from
an urban area; one was based on a survey of paint distributors (conducted several years
prior to the inventory)  in the area, the other used a national per capita factor based on
data from within one year of the inventory year. The more labor-intensive method gives
a much higher overall DARS score.  More information on considerations in using
DARS scores for paints and coatings emission sources is presented in Appendix F.

EIIP members have recognized the potential utility of DARS for inventories at all
levels.  Among the proposed uses of DARS are:

       •     To identify the weakest areas of an inventory  for further research and
             improvement;

       •     To use as one of several methods  to quickly compare different inventories;

       •     To rank alternative emission estimation methods (the EIIP Area and Point
             Source Committees have used DARS as one of several tools to select the
             best method);

       •     To set DQO  targets during the inventory planning stage; and

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                              TABLE 4.4-2

 DARS SCORES FOR ARCHITECTURAL SURFACE COATING EMISSIONS ESTIMATED BY
                        Two DIFFERENT METHODS
Attribute
Factor
Activity
Emissions
Local Survey
Measurement/Method
Source Specificity
Spatial
Temporal
Composite
0.7
1.0
1.0
0.7
0.85
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.975
0.63
1.00
1.00
0.70
0.83
Per Capita Factor
Measurement/Method
Source Specificity
Spatial
Temporal
Composite
0.3
1.0
0.3
0.7
0.575
0.4
0.3
0.3
1.0
0.5
0.12
0.30
0.09
0.70
0.30
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        •     To provide a means of ranking inventories.

A more thorough discussion of the recommended EIIP approach for DARS is provided
in Appendix F of this volume.

4.2  AP-42 EMISSION FACTOR RATING SYSTEM

The U.S. EPA's Compilation  of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, AP-42, is the primary
reference for emission factors in the United States (U.S. EPA, 1995).  Each AP-42
emission factor is given a rating of A through E, with A being the best.  A factor's
rating is a general indication  of the reliability, or robustness, of that factor.  This rating
is assigned using expert judgement.  That judgement is based on the estimated reliability
of the methods used to develop the factor, and on both the amount and the
representative characteristics  of the data.

In general, emission factors based on many observations, or on more widely accepted
test procedures, are assigned  higher rankings. Conversely, a factor based on a single
observation of questionable quality, or one extrapolated from another factor for a
similar process, is usually rated much lower. Because emission factors can be based on
source tests, modeling, mass balance, or other information, factor ratings can vary
greatly. In addition, there is  a wide variation in the amount of QA to which each factor
has been subjected.

Because the ratings do not consider the  inherent scatter among the data used to
calculate factors, the ratings do not  imply statistical error bounds or confidence intervals
about each emission factor.  At most, a rating should be considered an indicator of the
accuracy and precision of a given factor.  This indicator is largely a reflection of the
professional judgement of AP-42 authors and reviewers concerning the reliability of any
estimates derived with these factors.

Two steps are involved in factor  rating determination.  The first step is an appraisal of
data quality or the reliability  of the  basic emission data that will be used to develop the
factor.  The second step is an appraisal of the ability of the factor to stand as a national
annual average emission factor for that source activity.  The AP-42 rating system for the
quality of the test data consists of four categories  and is presented  in Table 4.4-3.

The  quality rating of AP-42 data helps identify satisfactory data, even when it is not
possible to extract a factor representative of a typical source in the category from those
data. For example, the data from a given test may be good enough for a data quality
rating of "A," but the test may be for a unique feed  material, or the production
specifications may be either more or less stringent than at the typical facility.


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CHAPTER 4 • EVALUATING UNCERTAINTY
                                   TABLE 4.4-3
                AP-42 RATING SYSTEM FOR EMISSIONS TEST DATA
Rating
A
B
C
D
Description
Tests are performed by a sound methodology and are reported in enough
detail for adequate validation.
Tests are performed by a generally sound methodology, but lacking
enough detail for adequate validation.
Tests are based on an unproven or new methodology, or are lacking a
significant amount of background information.
Tests are based on a generally unacceptable method, but the method may
provide an order-of-magnitude value for the source.
 The AP-42 emission factor rating is an overall assessment of how good a factor is, based
 on both the quality of the test(s) or information that is the source of the factor and on
 how well the factor represents the emission source. Higher ratings are for factors based
 on many unbiased observations, or on widely accepted test procedures.  For example, a
 factor based on 10 or more source tests on different randomly selected plants would
 likely be assigned an "A" rating if all tests are conducted using a single valid reference
 measurement  method. Likewise, a single observation based on questionable methods of
 testing would  be assigned an "E", and a factor extrapolated from higher-rated factors for
 similar processes would be assigned a "D" or an "E." A description of the AP-42
 emission factor quality ratings is given in Table 4.4-4.

 The AP-42 emission factor scores are of some value as indicators of the quality of
 emissions estimates.  At best, they rate the quality of the original data as applied  to
 estimates for that original point source.  However, when applied to other sources  or to
 groups of sources (i.e., area sources) the AP-42 factor score is less meaningful because it
 does not consider how similar the original source and the modeled source(s) are,  and it
 does not address the quality of the activity data at all.

 4.3    OTHER  GRADING  SYSTEMS

 A review of inventory quality  rating systems was recently completed for the EPA
 (Saeger,  1994).  Several systems similar to the AP-42 system are described.
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                                   TABLE 4.4-4
                 AP-42 RATING SYSTEM FOR EMISSION FACTORS"
  Ranking
 Quality Rating
                      Discussion
           Excellent
                 Factor is developed from A- and B-rated source test data
                 taken from many randomly chosen facilities in the
                 industry population. The source category population is
                 sufficiently specific to minimize variability.
     B
Above Average
Factor is developed from A- or B-rated test data from a
"reasonable number" of facilities.  Although no specific
bias is evident, it is not clear if the facilities tested
represent a random sample of the industry. As with an A
rating, the source category population is sufficiently
specific to minimize variability.
           Average
                 Factor is developed from A-, B-, and/or C-rated test data
                 from a reasonable number of facilities. Although  no
                 specific bias is evident, it is not clear if the facilities
                 tested represent a random sample of the industry. As
                 with the A rating, the source category population is
                 sufficiently specific to minimize variability.
     D
Below Average
Factor is developed from A-, B-, and/or C-rated test data
from a small number of facilities, and there may be
reason to suspect that these  facilities do not represent a
random sample of the industry. There also may be
evidence of variability within the source population.
           Poor
                 Factor is developed from C- and D-rated test data, and
                 there may be reason to suspect that the facilities tested
                 do not represent a random sample of the industry.  There
                 also may be evidence of variability within the source
                 category population.
 Source:  U.S. EPA, 1995.
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 A method used in Great Britain is based on letter ratings assigned to both emission
 factors and the activity data. The combined ratings are then reduced to a single overall
 score following an established protocol.  The emission factor criteria for the letter scores
 are similar to those  applied in the U.S. EPA's approach and scores for the activity data
 are based largely on the origin of the data.  Published data either by a government
 agency or through an industry trade association are assigned C ratings and extrapolated
 data based on a surrogate would receive an E rating.

 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  (IPCC) uses a rating scheme in its
 guidelines for reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. The IPCC system incorporates an
 assessment of completeness and of overall data quality in a code.  Table 4.4-5 shows the
 codes used for each of four characteristics.  These codes are entered in an inventory
 review table (such as the  one shown in Figure 2.4-1, Chapter 2 of this volume).

 4.4   GEIA RELIABILITY INDEX

 The Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA)  group is a consortium of research
 institutions that is attempting to develop common  data sets for use in developing global
 emissions inventories.   Data are supplied to this group from many different sources.
 The person supplying the data is asked to categorize it into one of three reliability
 categories of <50 percent, 50-100 percent, or  >100 percent that represent the estimated
 error in the data.

 This categorization relies entirely in the subjective judgements of the data originator.  If
 a system  like this is  used, the inventory developer  should clearly define each category
 and provide  a rationale for the assignment of each category.  This type of approach may
 be most useful as a  relative indicator for categories within a given inventory (particularly
 if used in combination with a qualitative assessment as described above).  Without some
 standardization of the  reliability category definitions, this method is not suitable for
 comparisons between inventories.
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OO
                                              TABLE 4.4-5
                            DATA QUALITY CODES RECOMMENDED BY THE IPCCa
     Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1995.
1
Estimates
Code
Part
All
NE
IE
NO
NA
Meaning
Partly estimated
Full estimate of all
possible sources
Not estimated
Estimated but included
elsewhere
Not occurring
Not applicable
Quality
Code
H
M
L



Meaning
High confidence in
estimation
Medium confidence in
estimation
Low confidence in
estimation



Documentation
Code
H
M
L



Meaning
High (all background
information included)
Medium (some
background information
included)
Low (only emission
estimates included)



Disaggregation
Code
1
2
3



Meaning
Total emissions
estimated
Sectoral split
Subsectoral split



                                                                                                         s
                                                                                                         H
                                                                                                         §

                                                                                                         i
                                                                                                         2
                                                                                                         •H
53
                                                                                                         (O

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 QUANTITATIVE  UNCERTAINTY
 ANALYSIS
This section describes several methods for generating statistically based uncertainty
estimates. They differ from previous methods in that they give quantitative, or
numerical, estimates of the error associated with emission estimates. Table 4.5-1
summarizes the preferred and alternative methods for conducting quantitative
uncertainty analysis.  As discussed in the introduction to this chapter, the intended uses
of the emissions data should be considered before spending significant resources on
quantifying the uncertainty associated with the estimates.

                              TABLE 4.5-1

     PREFERRED AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS FOR QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY
Preferred
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Use expert judgment (based on as much data as are available) to
estimate standard deviation (or coefficient of variation) and
distribution for key variables for each source type or category.
Conduct probabilistic modeling (e.g., Monte Carlo), accounting
for dependencies between variables.
Develop standard deviations (as above), assume independence,
and use error propagation to estimate uncertainty limits.
Use Delphi Method or other survey of experts to generate upper
and lower bounds in estimates.
5.1   EXPERT ESTIMATION METHOD

In general, information on the distributional nature of emissions data is required for a
quantitative analysis. These data include the type of distribution that best fits the data,
and values of the key distribution parameters (i.e., mean or median and variance) are
generally unavailable.  Typically, no information is available to define the distribution of
activity data as being normal, lognormal, or some other distribution, and there are no

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estimates of mean or standard deviation of the parameter of concern.  The most readily
available source of data for use in emission uncertainty analysis is "expert judgement."
Consequently, experts are asked to estimate key parameters associated with an emission
inventory such as the qualitative lower and upper bounds of an emission estimate or the
shape of a particular parameter distribution.

One approach is the highly formalized Delphi method (Linstene and Turoff, 1975) in
which the opinion of a panel of experts working separately but with regular feedback
converges to a single answer. The Delphi approach does not require an assumption of
either independence or distribution of the underlying emissions data and is a very
powerful technique when used properly and is focused on the "right" question.
However, its capability is limited by the quality of the "experts" selected and the care
with which the analysis protocol is followed.  The work at the South Coast Air Quality
Management District (SCAQMD, 1982) is an example of application of a simple Delphi
technique to assess uncertainty in a large-scale inventory.

Expert judgement outside a formal Delphi framework is also used to estimate emissions
uncertainty. In these methods, which can be relatively simplistic to  highly structured,
one or more experts make judgements as to the values of specific distributional
parameters for a number of sources.  For example, Horie (1988)  used graphical
techniques to estimate confidence limits once estimates of upper  and lower limits of
emissions were developed through expert judgement. Dickson and Hobbs (1989)
applied three separate methods, including Horie's, to estimate the confidence  limits for
a number of source categories after developing estimates of the uncertainty parameters
based upon questionnaires filled out by a panel of emission inventory experts.

Table 4.5-2 presents a portion of the results of Dickson and Hobbs. This table presents
alternative estimates of uncertainty in VOC emissions in the San  Joaquin Valley for
1985 using the lognormal method of Mangat et al. (1984), the probability method of
Horie (1988), and the error propagation method as implemented  by Benkovitz (1985),
which is discussed in the next section. The estimates of uncertainty for emission factors
and activity data for each individual source type were obtained through a polling of
experts.  Once these data were compiled and processed, a simple Monte Carlo
simulation was used to estimate uncertainty in the entire inventory for the Mangat and
Horie approaches. For the error propagation method, estimates  of overall inventory
uncertainty were obtained directly through error propagation. For most categories (only
four are presented in the table), the lognormal and error propagation methods yield
similar results with slightly larger  differences produced using the  probability method.

All three of these methods require the assumptions of independence of the activity data
and emission factors, assumptions that are not often met. In addition, each method
makes the explicit assumption of normality (or lognormality) of the emissions  data.  A

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J
                                                   TABLE 4.5-2
          COMPARISON OF VOC EMISSION UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATES DERIVED USING THREE ALTERNATIVE
                                       UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION METHODS"
0)
VOC Area Source
Category
On-Road Motor
Vehicles
Surface Coating
Pesticide Use
Oil Production
All Sources
Median Emission Estimate
(Med)
LN
30
9.2
21
150
210
P
29
9.6
22
150
210
EP
29
9.1
21
140
200
90% Upper Confidence Limit
(UCLgo)
LN
35
11
25
200
260
P
41
16
27
190
260
EP
36
11
26
200
260
Relative Percentage Difference15
[(UCL90-Med)/Med*100]
LN
17
18
19
33
23
P
41
63
25
27
21
EP
22
18
22
37
27
    a Source:  Dickson and Hobbs, 1989.  Emissions are for 1985 for the San Joaquin Valley and units are in thousands of tons per year.
      Computed prior to rounding median and upper confidence limits to two significant figures.

    LN     Lognormal Method of Mangat et al., 1984.
    P       Probability Method of Horie, 1988.
    EP     Error Propagation Method,  Benkovitz, 1985.
I
V*
UJ
                                                                                                                   §
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CHAPTER 4 - EVALUA TING UNCERTAINTY                                        7/12/96
consequence of a violation of any of these basic assumptions is that the uncertainty
estimates that result are typically biased low. The fact that emissions data often violate
these assumptions is a major weakness in most simple emission uncertainty estimation
methodologies such as the three listed in Table 4.5-2. A strength of these methods,
however, is their relatively low implementation cost when compared to the next two
methods discussed in this section. In many circumstances, reasonable estimates of
uncertainty for a multicounty or regional inventory can be developed for less than
2,000 hours  of effort.

Note that these methods are different from the GEIA reliability index (and other
ranking systems) discussed in the previous section. While all rely on expert judgement,
the methods described in this section rely on sampling expert opinions and using that
data to develop statistical indicators.

5.2  PROPAGATION  OF  ERROR METHOD

Error propagation methods follow traditional statistical methodology to estimate the
composite error introduced by the joint action of a number of individual factors each
with their own uncertainty.  These error propagation methods are based upon the twin
assumptions that:

       •     Emission estimates are  equal to the product of a series of parameters;  and

       •     Each of the parameters is independent (i.e., no temporal or spatial
             correlations among the  parameters).

A good example of an error propagation analysis used to estimate emissions uncertainty
in a large-scale emissions inventory is the National Acid Precipitation Assessment
Program (NAPAP, 1991).  For NAPAP, Benkovitz (1985) used a Taylor's series
expansion of the equation describing  the variance of a series of products to develop  an
analytic closed-form to an otherwise intractable problem.  In particular, the assumption
of independence allows the variance of multiplicative products to be expressed in terms
of the individual variances.  There is  general agreement that the uncertainty in the
NAPAP inventory is underestimated,  in part because of the incorrect assumption of
independence of the emission parameters used in the NAPAP error propagation analysis
(EPA, 1986).

The IPCC proposes that this approach be used only when the ranges in the emission
factor and uncertainty do not  exceed  more than 60 percent above or below the mean
emission estimate. The uncertainty in each component (i.e., the factor and activity)  is
first established using classical statistical analysis (Chapter 3, Section 7 of this volume),


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 probabilistic modeling (described in next section), or the formal expert assessment
 methods (described in the previous section).  Figure 4.5-1 presents an excerpt from the
 IPCC guidelines (IPCC, 1995). [Note that the nomenclature used in  the IPCC example
 is not always consistent with EIIP terms. In particular, "point estimate" refers to the
 statistical concept of a single number that may be an average or an engineering
 judgement; it does not refer to "point sources" or single facilities.]

 An example of the input data used in an error propagation analysis for the Grand
 Canyon Visibility Transport Commission emissions inventory is given in Table 4.5-3
 (Balentine et al., 1994).  In this study, Balentine et al. used expert judgement to
 estimate emissions uncertainty for all significant source classes and then  developed
 refined estimates of uncertainty for nine source categories using error propagation
 methodology. Emissions from each source category were assumed to be a multiplicative
 function of the underlying emission parameters.  For each of the nine categories for
 which refined uncertainty estimates were made, estimates of the coefficient of variation
 of each emission parameter contributing to the uncertainties were developed based
 upon the analysis of surrogate parameters and expert judgement.  Including data
 acquisition (but not inventory development), this study required less than 300 staff hours
 to complete.

 For the example source category given in Table 4.5-3 (industrial and  commercial fuel
 combustion), the emission estimate, and hence uncertainty, was assumed to be  a
 function of the number of sources, the  distillate oil demand, the average sulfur content,
 and the variability in the AP-42 emission factor. Application of the error propagation
 method with the data in Table 4.5-3 yields an overall composite coefficient of variation
 of approximately 40 percent, estimated as the square root of the sum of  the square of
 the individual coefficients of variation.  Again, this method requires the generally poorly
 met assumptions of independence and normal (lognormal) distribution of the individual
 emission parameters.

 5.3    DIRECT SIMULATION METHOD

 Direct simulation methods are statistical methods in which the uncertainty and
 confidence limits in emission estimates are directly computed  using statistical procedures
 such as Monte Carlo (Freeman et al., 1986), bootstrap and related resampling
 techniques (Efron and Tibshirani, 1991), and Latin hypercube approaches (Iman and
 Helton, 1988).  A major benefit of these statistical procedures is that the lack of
 independence in emission parameters is not  a limitation.  If set up and performed
 properly, the analysis methodology explicitly accounts for any dependencies as part of
 the statistical formulation of the problem.
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CHAPTER 4 - EVALUATING UNCERTAINTY
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T ABLE A I -1
UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO EMISSION FACTORS AND ACTIVITY DATA
1
Gas
CO,
CO,
CO,
CH4.
CH,
CH<
CH,
CH,
CH4
CH4
NZ0
N2O
NP
2
Source category
Energy
Industrial
Processes
Land Use Change
and Forestry
Biomass Burning
Oil and Nat. Gas
Activities
Coal Mining and
Handling Activities
Rice Cultivation
Waste
Animals
Animal waste
Industrial
Processes
Agricultural Soils
Biomass Burning
3
Emission factor
UE
7%
7%
33%
50%
55%
55%
3/4
*3
25%
20%
35%


4
Activity data
UA
7%
7%
50%
50%
20%
20%
''<
'/3
10%
10%
35%


5
Overall uncertainty
UT
10%
10%
60%
100%
60%
60%
1
1
25%
20%
50%
2 orders of magnitude
100%
Now: Individual uncertainties that appear to be greater than ± 6VH are not shown. Instead judgement as to *e relative
importance of emission factor and activity data uncertainties are shown as fractions which sum to one.
AI.2 Procedures for Quantifying
Uncertainty
Estimating Uncertainty of Components
To estimate uncertainty by source category and gas for a national inventory,
it is necessary to develop information like that shown in Table Al-l, but
specific to the individual country, methodology and data sources used. In
scientific and process control literature the 95 per cent (± 2) confidence
limit is often regarded as appropriate for range definition. Where there is
sufficient information to define the underlying probability distribution for
conventional statistical analysis, a 95 per cent confidence interval should be
calculated as a definition of the range. Uncertainty ranges can be estimated
using classical analysis (see Robinson) or the Monte Carlo technique (in
Eggleston, 1993). Otherwise the range will have to be assessed by national
experts.

FIGURE 4.5-1.  RECOMMENDED IPCC PROCEDURES FOR QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY
                         (SOURCE:  IPCC, 1995)
4.5-6
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CHAPTER 4 - EVALUATING UNCERTAINTY
                         If possible ranges should be developed separately for
                         •   emission factors  (and other  assumptions  in the estimation method)
                             (column 3 of Table Al-l).

                         •   socio-economic activity data (column 4 of Table Al-l)


                         Combining Uncertainties

                         It is necessary to derive the overall uncertainty arising from the combination
                         of emission factor and activity data uncertainty. IPCC/OECD suggest that
                         emission factor and activity data  ranges are regarded as estimates of the
                         95 per cent confidence interval, expressed as a percentage of the  point
                         estimate, around  each of  two  independent  components (either  from
                         statistically based calculations or informal ex ante judgements).

                         On this interpretation (for quoted ranges extending not more than 60 per
                         cent above or below the point estimate) the appropriate measure of overall
                         percentage uncertainty UT for the emissions estimate would be given by the
                         square root of the  sum  of the  squares of the  percentofe uncertainties
                         associated with the emission factor (UE) and the activity data (U*). That is,
                         for each source category:
                                    UT = ± ^(Uj1 + UA2): so long as | Ut |. |UA|<60%'

                         For individual uncertainties greater than 60 per cent the sum of squares
                         procedure is not valid. All that can  be done is to combine limiting values to
                         define an overall range, though this leads to upper and lower limiting values
                         which are asymmetrical about the central estimate5.

                         Estimated total emission for each gas is of course the summation I C, where
                         C, is the central estimate of the emission of the gas in the source category.
                         The appropriate measure of uncertainty in total emissions in emissions units
                         (not percentages) is then:
                                                                   •c,')

                         where UTj is the overall percentage uncertainty for the source category of
                         the gas from Table Al-l. Source categories for which symmetrical limiting
                         values cannot be  defined  (because  | UE  or  | UAI exceeds  60 per cent)
                         cannot sensibly be treated in this way. The uncertainty might be handled  by
                         reporting that total emissions from gas X are estimated to be Y Mt,  of which
                         Y, Mt had an estimated uncertainty of ± E, Mt and Y2 Mt had a  range of
                         uncertainty between - L Mt and + U Mt.
                            1 The 60% limit is imposed because the rule suggested for UT requires o
                         to be less than about 30% of the central estimate, and we are  interpreting
                         the quoted range as ±2c

                            2 K uncertainties due to the emission factor and  the activity data are
                         ± E% and ± AX respectively, and the upper and the lower limits of overall
                         uncertainty  are U% and L% respectively, then  U% = (E+A+E-A/IOO) and
                         L% = (EM-E-A/IOO).
                                       FIGURE 4.5-1.   CONTINUED
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        AI.3  Implications

                  If the assumptions in Table AI. I  are correct then typical uncertainties in
                  national emissions estimates range between:

                  •  ±  10% for COj from fossil fuels although this ma/ be lower for some
                     countries with good data and where source categories are well defined
                     (IPCC, 1993;  von Hippel etal., 1993)
                  «  ± 20% and ± 100% for individual methane sources  (though the overall
                     error might be ± 30%)
                  •  perhaps two orders of magnitude for estimates of  nitrous oxide from
                     agricultural soils
                  These  uncertainties will affect the level of quantitative understanding of
                  atmospheric cycles  of greenhouse gases  that  can  be derived  using  the
                  summation of inventories.

                  The situation is  less critical for monitoring emissions  mitigation options,
                  because the profile of the emissions time series will be relatively  insensitive
                  to  revisions  to  the emissions  estimation  methodology. However very
                  different levels of uncertainty for different gases will  be  inevitable for some
                  time to come, and this will need to be recognised in any move  towards a
                  comprehensive approach to greenhouse gas mitigation.
        AI.4 References

                 (IPCC) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1992), donate Change
                         1992: The Supplement to the IPCC Scientific Assessment
                 The method for combining errors in a multiplicative chain are given in many
                         statistical textbooks, but note Jennifer  Robinson's discussion (On
                         uncertainty in the computation of global  emissions from biomass
                         burning, Glrmotic Change.  14, 243-262) about the difficulties which
                         arise at high coefficients of variation.
                 H S Eggleston (1993), "Uncertainties in the estimates of emissions of VOCs
                         from  Motor  Cars."    Paper presented  at the  TNOIEURASAP
                         Workshop on the Reliability of VOC Emission  Databases. June  1993,
                         Delft, The Netherlands.
                 IPCC  (1993), "Preliminary IPCC national  GHG inventories:  in  depth
                         review."  Report presented at the IPCC/OECD Workshop on National
                         GHG Inventories, October  1993, Bracknell. UK.

                 von Hippel et a!. (1993), "Estimating greenhouse gas  emissions from fossil
                         fuel combustion". Energy Policy, 691-702, June 1993.
                                FIGURE 4.5-1.  CONTINUED

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CHAPTER 4 - EVALUATING UNCERTAINTY
                                  TABLE 4.5-3

 ESTIMATED COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION FOR PARAMETERS USED IN ESTIMATING SO2
             EMISSIONS FROM INDUSTRIAL AND COMMERCIAL SOURCES"
Parameter
Number of industrial and
commercial sources
Distillate oil demand
Distillate oil average sulfur
content
Emission factor variability
Source
Dickson et al., 1992
Oil and Gas Journal,
1992, 1993, and 1994
El-Wakil, 1984
Assumption based on
AP-42, Table 1.3-1;
EPA, 1985
Discussion
Variation in day-specific
emissions from annual day
emissions for 33 facilities in
Wisconsin.
1992-1994 quarterly
variability in
nontransportation distillate
fuel demand.
Average sulfur content for
No. 2 and No. 6 fuel oils.
AP-42 uncertainty in
emission factor given as an
"A" rating.
Coefficient of
Variation (%)
15
5
25
20
 a Source: Balentine et al., 1994.

 The common Monte Carlo technique is a powerful direct simulation method. Freeman
 et al. (1986) applied this technique to evaluate uncertainty in the input parameters,
 including emissions, in an air quality model.  Environment Canada (1994) applied the
 methodology to estimate uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions for Canada.
 Table 4.5-4 presents the Environment Canada Monte Carlo results for carbon dioxide
 (CO2) emissions in Canada. The estimated uncertainty in emissions in individual source
 categories varied from 5 percent for diesel fuel combustion to 40 percent for coal
 combustion. Because the Environment Canada study made the assumption of
 independence between parameters, the resultant uncertainty estimates should be
 considered lower limits.

 One limitation of the Monte Carlo approach is that a distribution type and distribution
 values for each  emission parameter must be specified. Typically, expert judgement is
 required to make some or all the estimates of distribution type and parameters. A
 second limitation (but also a strength because it gets around the assumption of
 independence) is that all underlying dependencies between the various parameters must
 be accounted for when formulating the model.  These dependencies can be taken into
 account during randomization of each parameter because the same random number can
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                                TABLE 4.5-4

           ESTIMATES OF UNCERTAINTY OF CO2 EMISSIONS IN CANADA
               PRELIMINARY 1990 CO2 ESTIMATES IN KILOTONNES"


Source Group
Industrial Processes
• Cement Process Only
• Lime & Other Inorganics
• Stripped Natural Gas
• Non Energy Use
Subtotal
Fuel Combustion
Power Generation
Residential
Commercial
Industrial/Steam
Agriculture
Public Administration
Refinery Use
Oil & Gas Production
Pipeline
Coal
Miscellaneous
Subtotal
Transportation
• Gasoline
• Jet Fuels
• Diesel
• Natural Gas & Propane
Subtotal
Overall Total

Range of Emissions
(Rounded) From/To

4,700/6,000
1,900/2,600
5,100/7,300
9,900/18,400
23,350/32,254

89,000/99,000
38,000/43,000
22,500/25,500
72,500/85,500
2,280/2,680
1,900/2,200
12,500/18,700
22,700/34,000
6,000/7,400
240/560
200/500
282,409/304,074

73,900/81,600
11,900/14,500
44,900/49,700
1,500/1,900
135,024/144,540
448,185/473,467
At 95% Confidence Levc

Range Width

1,300
700
1,800
8,500
8,903

10,000
5,000
3,000
13,000
400
300
6,200
11,300
1,400
320
300
21,666

7,700
2,600
4,800
400
9,515
25,283
:1
Overall Uncertainty
(±%)

(12)
(15)
(18)
(30)
(16)

(5)
(6)
(6)
(8)
(8)
(8)
(20)
(20)
(10)
(40)

(4)

(5)
(10)
(5)
(10)
(35)
(3)
 Source: Table 4.2.1-1 in Environment Canada, 1994.
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be used to estimate multiple parameters that are correlated (e.g., if population is a
factor in multiple emission parameters, the same random number can be used to
estimate each factor that is dependent on population rather than allowing use of
independent random numbers).

The Latin hypercube methodology (Iman and Helton, 1988) has evolved from the Latin
square methodology (Cox, 1958) commonly used for planning and analyzing field
measurements. A typical application of the Latin square approach would be an
agricultural experiment examining the role of application of n alternative pesticides to m
plant varieties in an effort to determine the combination that maximizes crop yield.

In the Latin hypercube approach, the  methodology is expanded beyond  the simple two-
dimensional relationship  to higher dimensions with multiple parameters and potential
interactions. In an example involving emission estimates, the data set may consist of
stack test measurements  of emissions from industrial boilers  and three of the variables
included are the boiler type, load, and control device. Using the Latin hypercube
approach, the internal  relationship between load, boiler  type, and control device would
be approximated by the various random samples selected from the data set.  This
approach allows one to estimate directly the uncertainty of the parameter of interest
(i.e., emission rate) as  a function  of the causative factors examined.

The numerical method developed by Oden and  Benkovitz (1990) allows one  to estimate
uncertainty  in the typical situation in which autocorrelations and covariances that occur
in the parameters responsible for producing emissions.  Using their methodology, it is
possible to estimate the uncertainty accounting for the lack of independence between
the parameters and to  determine  what this lack of independence contributes  to the
overall uncertainty.

Resampling methodologies such as the bootstrap method (Efron and Tibshirani, 1991)
involve performing random sampling (with replacement) from a data set in order to
estimate some statistical parameter such as the standard error or variance. For a small
data set, a direct computation of the parameter of interest can be highly uncertain given
the small sample size or may not  even be possible because there is no simple formula
with which to compute the value.  However, in bootstrap and other resampling methods,
resampling with replacement both increases the effective size of the data set and allows
direct estimation of parameters of interest. While there are difficulties in applying
resampling techniques  to emissions data because they are temporally correlated, recent
work by Carlstein (1992)  has allowed bootstrap  techniques to be applied in situations
with temporally correlated data.

The major drawback of the direct simulation methodologies is the computationally
intensive nature of the techniques. However, as computing costs decrease with the

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advent of increasingly more powerful desktop computers, this limitation is becoming less
important as a selection criteria for an uncertainty estimation methodology.  Because of
the complexity of the statistical analyses required, staff members with advanced degrees
in statistics are typically involved in studies using direction simulation methods to
estimate uncertainty.  Also, the level  of effort required can approach (or exceed)
1,000 staff hours depending upon the complexity of the analysis and the data collection
required.

5.4   OTHER METHODS

In addition to  the above methods, direct and indirect field measurement, receptor
modeling, and inverse air quality modeling can be used to  produce estimates of
uncertainty (or relative uncertainty) in emission inventories. However, such methods
can provide significantly more information than estimates of uncertainty. Each can
produce emission estimates completely independent of standard emission computation
methods.  Typically, these other methods are very labor and data intensive, and can
easily require 1,000 staff hours or more to collect the required data and perform the
analysis.

Because these emission estimates are independent,  they can be used as an independent
verification of the emission estimates. This potential role in validating emission
estimates is perhaps the most important use of information resulting from application of
these methods. A detailed discussion of each method is given in Chapter 3, Section 9 of
this volume.
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 REFERENCES
Balentine, H.W., R.J. Dickson and W.R. Oliver.  1994.  Development of Uncertainty
Estimates for the Grand Canyon Visibility Transport Commission Emissions Inventory.
Radian Corporation Technical Memorandum, Sacramento, California. December.

Beck, L., R. Peer, L. Bravo, and Y. Van.  1994. A Data Attribute Rating System.
Presented at the Air & Waste Management Association's Emission Inventory
Conference, Raleigh, North Carolina.

Benkovitz, C.M. 1985. Framework for Uncertainty Analysis of the NAPAP Emissions
Inventory.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air and Energy Engineering
Research Laboratory.  EPA/600/7-85/036.  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

Benkovitz, C.M., and N.L. Oden. 1989.  Individual Versus Averaged Estimates of
Parameters used in Large Scale Emissions Inventories.  Atmospheric Environment
23:903-909.

Carlstein E. 1992.  Resampling techniques for stationary time series:  Some recent
developments.  In: The IMA Volumes in Mathematics and its Applications: New
Directions in Time Series Analysis I. Springer-Verlag, New York.

Chang, M., C. Cardelino, W. Chameides, and W. Chang.  1993. An iterative procedure to
estimate emission inventory uncertainties.  Presented at The Regional Photochemical
Measurement and Modeling Studies Meeting of the  Air & Waste Management
Association at San Diego, California. November.

Chang, M., C. Cardelino, D. Hartley, and W. Chang. 1995. Inverse Techniques for
Developing Historical and Future  Year Emission Inventories. Presented at The Emission
Inventory: Programs and Progress Specialty Conference of the Air & Waste
Management Association, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.  October 11-13.

Chow, J.C., J.G. Watson, D.H. Lowenthal, P.A. Soloman, K.L. Magliano, S.D. Ziman,
and L.W. Richards.  1992.  PM10 Source Apportionment in California's San Joaquin
Valley.  Atmospheric Environment 26A:3335-3354.
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Claiborn, C., A. Mitra, G. Adams, L. Bamesberger, G. Allwine, R. Kantamaneni,
B. Lamb, and H. Westberg.  1995. Evaluation of PM10 Emission Rates from Paved and
Unpaved Roads using Tracer Techniques. Atmospheric Environment 29:1075-1089.

Cox, D.R.  1958. Planning of Experiments. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York,
pp. 35-44.

Dickson, R.J., and A.D. Hobbs.  1989.  Evaluation of Emission Inventory Uncertainty
Estimation Procedures, Paper 89-24.08, presented at the 82nd Annual Meeting of the
Air & Waste Management Association, Anaheim, California.

Dickson, R.J., K.K. Mayenkar, and J. Laas.  1992. Increasing the Accuracy of Hourly
Emission Estimates Using Day-Specific Data in the Lake Michigan Ozone Study.  Paper
92-87.04, presented at the 85th Annual Meeting of the Air & Waste Management
Association, Kansas City, Missouri.

El-Wakil, M.M.  1984. Power Plant Technology.  McGraw-Hill, Inc., New York, New
York. p. 149.

Efron, B., and R. Tibshirani. 1991. Statistical Data Analysis in the Computer Age.
Science 253:390-395.

Finkel, A.M.  1990.  Confronting Uncertainty  in Risk Management • A Guide for Decision-
Makers.  Center for Risk Management, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.

Freeman, D.L., R.T. Egami, N.F. Robinson,  and J.G Watson.  1986.  A Method for
Propagating Measurement Uncertainties through Dispersion Models. Journal of the Air
Pollution Control Association 36:246-253.

Fujita, E.M., B.E. Croes, C.L. Bennett, D.R. Lawson, F.W. Lurmann, and H.H. Main.
1992. Comparison of Emission Inventory and Ambient Concentration Ratios of CO,
NMOG, and NOX in California's South Coast Air Basin.  Journal of the Air & Waste
Management Association 42(3):264-276.

Gatz, D.F., and L. Smith.  1995a.  The Standard Error of a Weighted Mean
Concentration -1. Bootstrapping vs Other Methods.  Atmospheric Environment
29:1185-1193.

Gatz, D.F., and L. Smith.  1995b.  The Standard Error of a Weighted Mean
Concentration -1. Estimating Confidence Intervals. Atmospheric Environment
29:1195-1200.
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Hartley, D., and R.J. Prinn.  1993. Feasibility of Determining Surface Emissions of
Trace Gases Using an Inverse Method in a Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport
Model.  Journal of Geophysical Research. 98:5183-5197.

Horie, Y.  1988.  Handbook on Procedures for Establishing the  Uncertainties of Emission
Estimates.  Prepared for the California Air Resources Board Research Division, by
Valley Research Corporation,  ARE Contract A5-184-32. Sacramento, California.
February.

Horie, Y., and A.L. Shorpe. 1989. Development of Procedures for Establishing the
Uncertainties of Emission Estimates.  Paper 89-24.7. Presented at the 82nd Annual Air &
Waste Management Association  Meeting, Anaheim, California, June.

Iman, R.L., and J.C. Helton. 1988.  An Investigation  of Uncertainty and Sensitivity
Analysis Techniques for Computer Models. Risk Analysis 8:71-90.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  1995. IPCC Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas Reporting Instructions.  IPCC WGI Technical Inventories,
Volume 1:  Support Unit,  Bracknell, United Kingdom.

Linstene, H.A., and M. Turoff. 1975. The Delphi Method, Techniques and Applications.
Edited by Linstene and Turoff. Addison - Wesley Publishing Company.

Lowenthal, D.H., J.C. Chow, J.G. Watson, G.R. Neuroth, R.B. Robbins, B.P. Shafritz,
and R.J. Countess.  1992.  The Effects of Collinearity in the Ability to Determine
Aerosol Contributions from Diesel- and Gasoline-Powered Vehicles using the Chemical
Mass Balance Model. Atmospheric Environment 26A:2341-2351.

Mangat, T.S.,  L.H. Robinson, and P. Switzer.  1984. Medians and Percentiles for
Emission Inventory Totals.  Presented at the 77th Annual Meeting of the Air Pollution
Control Association, San Francisco, California.  June.

Mitchell, W.J., J.C. Suggs, and E.W. Streib. 1995. A  Statistical Analysis of Stationary
Source Compliance Test Audit Data.  Journal of the Air & Waste Management
Association 45:83-88.

Mulholland, M., and J.H. Seinfeld.  1995. Inverse Air Pollution Modelling of Urban-
Scale Carbon  Monoxide Emissions.  Atmospheric Environment  29:497-516.
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National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program. 1991. Acidic Deposition:  State of
Science and Technology; Volume I - Emissions, Atmospheric Processes, and Deposition.
ISBN 0-16-036144-3. P.M. Irving, ed. Washington, B.C.

Oden, N.L., and CM. Benkovitz. 1990. Statistical Implications of the Dependence
Between the Parameters Used for Calculations of Large Scale Emissions Inventories.
Atmospheric Environment 24A:449-456.

Oil and Gas Journal. Annual  Forecast and Review, July 27, 1992, p. 63; July 26, 1993,
p. 51, July 25,  1994, p. 55.

Peer, R.L., and D.L. Epperson, D.L. Campbell., and P. von Brook.  1992.  Development
of an Empirical Model of Methane Emissions from Landfills.  United States
Environmental Protection Agency, Air and Energy Engineering Laboratory,
EPA-600/R-92-037, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

Pierson, W.R., A.W. Gertler and R.L. Bradow.  1990.  Comparison of the SCAQS
Tunnel Study with Other On-Road  Vehicle Emission Data.  Journal of the Air & Waste
Management Association.  40(11): 1495-1504.

Saeger, M. 1994.  Procedures for Verification of Emissions Inventories, Final Report.
Prepared for Emissions Inventory Branch, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina (EPA
Contract No. 68-D3-0030).

Scheff, P.A., R.A. Wadden, D.M. Kenski, and J. Chang.  1995.  Receptor Model
Evaluation of the SEMOS Ambient NMOC Measurements. Paper 95-113C.03. Presented
at the 88th Annual Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association, San Antonio,
Texas. June.

South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD).  1982.  Uncertainty of 1979
Emissions Data, Chapter IV: 1983 Air Quality Management Plan Revision, Appendix TV-A;
1979 Emissions Inventory for the  South Coast Air Basin, Revised October 1982. Planning
Division, El Monte, California.  October.

Spellicy, F.L., J.A. Draves, W.L. Crow, W.F Herget,  and W.F. Buchholtz.  1992.  A
Demonstration of Optical Remote Sensing in a Petrochemical Environment.  Presented at
the Air & Waste Management Association Specialty Conference on Remote Sensing,
Houston, Texas. April 6-9.
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 Steiner, C.K.R., L. Gardner, M.C. Causley, M.A. Yocke, and W.L. Steorts. 1994.
 Inventory Quality Issues Associated with the Development of an Emissions Inventory for
 the Minerals Management Service Gulf of Mexico Air Quality Study. In: The Emission
 Inventory:  Perception and Reality.  Proceedings of an International Specialty Conference,
 VIP-38.  Air & Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

 Environment Canada. Uncertainties in Canada's 1990 Greenhouse Gas Emission
 Estimates, A Quantitative Assessment.  Prepared by T.J. McCann & Associates.
 Unpublished report.  Ottawa, Ontario, March, 1994.

 U.S. EPA.  1986. Estimation of Uncertainty for the 1980 NAPAP Emission Inventory.
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Air and Energy Engineering Research
 Laboratory, EPA/600/S7-86/055.  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

 U.S. EPA.  1985-1993.  Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Volume I:
 Stationary Point and Area Sources, Fourth Edition and Supplements, AP-42.
 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
 Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

 U.S. EPA.  1995. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Volume I: Stationary
 Point and Area Sources,  Fifth Edition, AP-42.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
 Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.  Research Triangle Park,  North Carolina.

 Watson, J.G., J.A. Cooper, and J.J. Huntzicker.  1984. The Effective Variance Weighing
 for Least Squares Calculations Applied to  the Mass Balance Receptor Model.
 Atmospheric Environment 18:1347-1355.
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8/9/96                       APPENDIX F - DARS
           APPENDIX F
 EIIP RECOMMENDED APPROACH TO
USING THE DATA ATTRIBUTE RATING
         SYSTEM (DARS)
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8/9/96                                                              APPENDIX F - DARS
 DARS  BASICS

 The Data Attribute Rating System (DARS) was originally developed as a research tool for
 rating national and global greenhouse gas inventories.  The theoretical basis of DARS is
 described in Beck et al.,  1994.  EIIP has made some changes in the original system based in
 part on the results of several pilot studies. State agency personnel were trained in the DARS
 method, and then used DARS to rate their base year State Implementation Plan (SIP) ozone
 precursor inventories.  In addition, particulate matter (PM-10) inventories (state and national
 levels) were evaluated by inventory developers trained  in the use of DARS.  The experiences
 and recommendations of  field testers were incorporated in the version of DARS presented
 here. Key changes from  the original are:

       1.     Rating criteria have been expanded to include point and mobile source
             emission estimation methods.  The original DARS was developed for area
             source-type methods.

       2.     The definitions of the attributes have been  made more specific.  In particular,
             the full range of emission estimation  methods and source types found in a state
             or regional inventory have been taken into account.

       3.     The assignment of scores within an attribute have been made less flexible.  It
             is important that the scoring system not be too rigid because the inherent
             uncertainty in emissions varies among source types.  Therefore,  a method that
             is considered poor in most cases may actually produce  very good estimates  in
             certain other cases.  An example is the use of mass balance.  If the emissive
             process is the result of complex chemical reactions, mass balance produces a
             rough approximation. If the process  is a simple physical one
             (e.g., evaporation), mass balance is a much more acceptable method.

       4.     The original DARS had five attributes, the EIIP version has four.  Two
             attributes-measurement and pollutant specificity-were  combined.  This change
             actually improves the discriminating power of DARS because the pollutant
             specificity  attribute was  nearly always the same value in SIP-type inventories.

The DARS score is based on the perceived quality of the emission  factor and activity data.
Scores are assigned  to four data attributes: measurement/method, source specificity, spatial
congruity, and temporal congruity.  A key feature of DARS is that these attributes are
orthogonal; that is, they are independent of each other, and therefore  the score for each
attribute is independent of the other scores.  However,  the emission factor and  activity scores
for a given attribute are not necessarily independent. This is because the choice of one is

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usually limited by the selection of the other.  For example, if a per capita factor is being
used to estimate architectural surface coating emissions,  then the activity must be population.

Table F-l shows a DARS scoring box.  The procedures  for filling  in the scores for emission
factors and activity are described below.  The emissions scores for each attribute (i.e., the
right-hand column of the box) are computed by first dividing each  score by 10, and then
multiplying the factor score times the activity score.  The composite scores for factor,
activity, and emissions (i.e., the bottom row of the box) are computed by averaging the
scores  in a column.  Scoring of each attribute is discussed below with specific examples. In
general, the following guidelines should be used:

       1.      The specific scores and descriptions shown in the attribute scoring flow charts
              (Figures F-l through F-8) are to  be used as set-points. Users can interpolate
              between the values shown.

       2.      The scores are shown on a 1 to 10  basis, although the final scores are always
              less than 1 because the scores are divided  by the maximum possible score of
              10.  In general, it is easier to think and talk in terms of 1 to 10, so that
              convention is used in the following descriptions and  examples.  However, the
              composite scores shown are always presented as fractions.

       3.      For the beginner, a good approach  to selecting a score is to start at the
              beginning of the flow chart and work down to find the lowest number that
              most nearly fits the situation.  Then adjust up to factor in other considerations
              (examples are given in later sections).

       4.      In the  absence of sufficient information on the derivation of factors, activity,
              or emissions, choose the highest score that can be confidently made with the
              information provided.  If the source or derivation of the data is totally
              undocumented, the highest possible score is 1.  (One objective of DARS  is to
              encourage good documentation of inventory data.)

DARS SCORES USING STATISTICAL CORRELATIONS

Many of the DARS attributes are scored based on presumed correlations between the target
category and a surrogate.  Unfortunately, very few of these correlations have been
demonstrated statistically.  If a statistical correlation is available, the correlation coefficient
(usually expressed as r or  sometimes R) can be  used to help determine the DARS score.
However,  statistical correlations should be used very carefully.  The data should apply
directly to the region and source category being scored.  Also, the  data should  be adequate
and a representative  sample should be chosen.


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APPENDIX F - DARS
                                     TABLE F-1
                                DARS SCORING Box
Attribute
Measurement/Method
Source Specificity
Spatial Congruity
Temporal Congruity
Composite

Factor
Ci
e2
e3
e4
4
Ee,
i = l
4
Activity
*i
*2
a3
a4
4
E".
i = i
4
Emissions
ei*a,
e2*a2
e3*a3
e4 * a4
E (c, * a;)
i*l
4
The spatial and temporal attributes deal with scaling issues (in part).  For example, many
area source emission factors are based on annual national consumption that is then
apportioned using population or employment.  If the inventory uses daily emissions in a
county, uncertainty is introduced by scaling down.  If the activity and emissions are very
uniform, then the uncertainty is low (and the DARS score relatively high).  But many
emissive activities vary in nature and importance geographically; in this case, using a
national factor (or a mean value) will result in over- and underestimates of emissions at
a small scale (i.e., at the county level).

Note that the  same spatial concerns apply when  scaling up.  If the emissions from a
small number of facilities are used to estimate emissions for the entire region, the
representativeness of those sources in the entire  population is important.

No formal relationship between DARS attribute scores and statistical variability or
correlation measures has been developed. Unfortunately, it has not been the practice to
publish statistical measures of emission factor variability in the past, although this is
changing.
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ASSIGNING ATTRIBUTE SCORES

Measurement/Method Attribute

The key to correctly scoring this attribute is to remember that it deals explicitly with
measurement. The score is based on the quality of the factor itself—not on how it has
been used (that is covered in the next section under source specificity).  The presumption
is that the best results are usually obtained by direct measurement of either emissions
(either by source testing or continuous emission monitors [CEMs]) or by measurement of
surrogate parameters that have  a strong, statistically documented correlation with the
pollutant of interest.  The term  "factor" is appropriate even when source testing was used
because emission measurement  data are usually expressed per unit of time. If a
concentration is measured, the emissions per unit of time must be calculated for use in
an inventory, or the original data may be expressed based on fuel consumed (or other
variable).  Figures  F-l and F-2 show the flow chart decision process used to score this
attribute.

Very often, AP-42 or other emission factors are  used to estimate emissions.  If possible,
the appropriateness of the test data used to develop the factor should be studied to
determine the DARS score. Alternatively, the default DARS scores for AP-42 factors
shown in Table F-2 can be used for point source estimates.

Area source emission factors are treated the same as point source factors when scoring
this attribute.  It is very unlikely that  an area source emission factor will receive a score
of 10 for this attribute. A 9 is possible  if a large number of samples covering a
representative portion of the source were used to develop the factor.

Some additional comments are warranted for emission factors based on mass balance.
As seen in Figure F-l, this method can  get a score varying from 3 to 5  depending on the
source types and thoroughness.  However, the score may be pushed even higher for some
types of sources and if endpoints (other than air) have been fully quantified.  For
example, evaporative losses from solvent use can be reliably estimated  using this method,
provided that accounting for all the nonemissive losses is done.  It seems reasonable to
assume that volatile compounds will evaporate.  The problem is that for surface coatings
or graphic arts, some solvent may remain in the substrate.  Some solvent may also be
released to publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) or, if released inside a building, it
may be absorbed by living tissue (e.g., plants or  lungs of animals).  For all of those
reasons, the scorer is allowed  to exercise some judgment. If there is some empirical
basis for the mass balance factor (and especially if some of these other sinks for the
solvents have been included in some way), the score can be raised to a 5 for area
sources; higher scores may be given for point sources.

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             APPENDIX F - DARS
                                         Factor based on measurement
                                         of emissions.
           Factor derived from laboratory
           bench-scale/pilot study data,
           representative of process.
Continuous or near
continuous measurement of
 ntended pollutant from all
relevant sites.  Data capture
>90%.

NO

^

Based on mass balance, all/
most endpoints accounted for.
         Factor derived from crude
         mass balances, known
         principles, etc.
                                                                       Intermittent measurements of
                                                                       intended pollutant.
                                              Representative sample over
                                              range of loads.
                                              Small sample, typical loads.
                                                                      Factor derived from ratio to
                                                                      measured pollutant.
        Emission factor based on
        expert judgment.
                                                                       Factor based on speciation
                                                                       profile applied to measurement
                                                                       of other pollutant.
       FIGURE F-1.  DARS MEASUREMENT ATTRIBUTE EMISSION  FACTOR RATING
                                             FLOW  CHART
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APPENDIX F - DARS
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                            Direct continuous
                            measurement of activity
                            surrogate
                           Activity rate derived from a
                           different measured surrogate
                           associated with original activity
                           surrogate; data covers
                           representative sample.
                             Activity estimate based on
                             expert judgment.
                                                         Direct intermittent measurement
                                                         of activity surrogate.
|INU |

Activity rate derived from
engineering or physical
principles (design specs, etc.).
    FIGURE F-2.  DARS MEASUREMENT ATTRIBUTE ACTIVITY RATING FLOW CHART
F-6
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APPENDIX F - DARS
                                    TABLE F-2

                    AP-42 LETTER CODES AND CORRESPONDING
                 DARS FACTOR MEASUREMENT ATTRIBUTE SCORES
AP-42 Factor
Rating
A
B
C
D
E
Pollutant Factor
NOX
6
6
5
5
4
CO
6
6
5
5
4
voc
5
5
4
4
3
PM-10
5
5
4
4
3
A 10 will rarely be given for the emission factor measurement score; however, they will
be fairly common for the activity measurement score in point source inventories.  For
example, fuel use by a boiler is usually known for an industrial site and, assuming no
uncertainty or gaps in the data, will receive a 10. Total county-wide fuel use by small
boilers may not be directly measured, or may be difficult to obtain. A common source of
state-level data is the State Energy Data Report Consumption Estimates (published
annually by the U.S. Department of Energy or DOE); the methods used to compile these
data are discussed in the technical appendices in that volume, and some known sources
of errors are acknowledged.  Generally, the values are based on either sales data (which
is a surrogate, so this gets a score of 6 if the correlation is good), or shipments  (by
weight or volume) that might be construed as a direct intermittent measurement (and
assigned a score of 8 or  9).  The correct score will generally fall between 5 and 9 for this
example.

If the oil is being  consumed by industry other than in boilers,  it is probably for  heaters or
other combustion  devices.  If no adjustment is made for these other uses, the DARS
score is a 7. If the other uses have been subtracted from the total (or are known not to
be important), the potential score can be raised to 8. If the DOE State Energy Data
Report Consumption Estimates is the source of fuel oil consumption, then the highest
possible score is an 8 given the uncertainties in the DOE method.
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The two other fuels commonly included in the combustion source categories are natural
gas and coal.  The distinction between the industrial/commercial sectors used by the gas
industry is not consistent with the definitions used by EPA (the gas industry definition is
not based on Standard Industrial Classification [SIC] codes). Unless adjustments have
been made to the data (based on state information, for example), the DARS score is a 5
for industrial or commercial natural gas combustion.  Coal use by industry falls
somewhere in between the natural gas and fuel oil DARS sources.  The DOE reports
that these are the most uncertain numbers because it is difficult to track at a state level.
So, there is the potential for error in allocating national coal consumption to states (this
comes into play when scoring  the spatial congruity attribute).  The allocation to
industrial uses (versus commercial or residential) is pertinent to the measurement
attribute;  it is also difficult to  track, but because very little coal is used by any sector
other than utilities and industry, it is generally safe to assume that nonutility users are
primarily industrial.  The best possible score for coal is a 7.

Source Specificity

The source specificity attribute concerns how specific the original factor or activity
surrogate  is to the source being estimated. This attribute is easily confused with the
previous one.  The key point to remember is NOT to be concerned with whether or not
the emission factor or activity is measured; the question to ask is "was this emission
factor (or activity parameter) specifically developed for this source category?" To answer
this question will require a clear  definition of the source category and a good
understanding of the source of the emission factor and activity parameter. Figures  F-3
and F-4 provide the details needed to score this attribute.

It is common practice to borrow emission factors from similar processes if none are
available for the intended source category. For example, no emission factors are
available for small industrial reciprocating engines (SIREs) less than 250 hp, so it is
common practice to use the factors intended for SIREs in the range of 250-600 hp.
Using the rating flow chart shown in Figure F-3, the factor score in this example falls
between 5 and 8. If nothing is known about the relative variation in engine emissions
(particularly as related to size), the only option would be to choose the low score of 5.
However,  if standard references (such as AP-42) are being used, it is usually possible to
find additional information.  For  example, if we compare the nitrogen oxides (NOX)
emission factor for a SIRE to  that for a large bore engine (LBE), the ratio is 4.41 to
3.1 or roughly 1.4. If the same relationship can be assumed to apply to  the smaller
SIREs when compared to larger SIREs, then the variability is not likely to be high
(where high is an order of magnitude or more).  The score could be raised to 6.  In most
cases, the  expected variability  values and ranges shown on Figure F-3 will be subjective
rather than actually quantifiable.


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APPENDIX F • DARS
                               Factor developed specifically
                               for the intended source
                               category or source.
                                     NO
                      Factor developed for a similar
                      category with LOW  (<10%)
                      variability and correlated to
                      target category.	
                       Factor developed for a
                       surrogate category with
                       limited information.
                                                              Factor developed for subset or
                                                              superset of the intended
                                                              source category. Expected
                                                              variability is LOW (<10%).
                                                              Factor is for a similar, subset
                                                              or superset source category.
                                                              Expected variability LOW to
                                                              MODERATE (10%-100%).
Factor is for a similar, subset
or superset source category.
Expected variability
MODERATE to HIGH
(100%-1000%).

|NO
                                                                             YES
                                                                        i
                                                               Factor is for a similar, subset
                                                               or superset source category.
                                                               Expected variability HIGH
                                                                              YES
                                                                   NO
                                                               Factor developed for a
                                                               surrogate category and applied
                                                               through expert judgment.
  FIGURE F-3.  DARS SOURCE CATEGORY SPECIFICITY ATTRIBUTE EMISSION FACTOR
                                       RATING FLOW CHART
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APPENDIX F - DARS
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        flSTART
Activity data represent the
emission process exactly.
                                                      Activity very closely
                                                      correlated to the emission
                                                      activity.

NO |
^
INO |
Activity data for a similar
process that is HIGHLY
correlated to the category or
process.
                          Activity data are somewhat
                          correlated to the category or
                          process.
A
«n I
[NO |
r
Activity data represent a
surrogate source category with
limited information.
                           Activity data for a surrogate
                           source category and applied
                           through expert judgment.
  FIGURE F-4.  DARS SOURCE CATEGORY SPECIFICITY ATTRIBUTE ACTIVITY RATING
                                         FLOW CHART
F-10
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 The activity score for this attribute is determined by the denominator in the emission
 factor.  Scoring should be based on how specifically that activity variable applies to the
 emissive process.  The use of annual industrial fuel oil consumption to estimate
 combustion area source  emissions from industry provides a good example.  Oil
 consumption is a surrogate for oil combustion, but it is a very good surrogate (activity
 source specificity attribute score is 9).

 Very often, area source  methods use an easily obtained surrogate variable as the activity
 variable.  Commonly, population or employment data  are used. The use of population
 as a surrogate  will usually be scored as 1.  However, if the inventory preparer (or
 provider of the emission factor) can demonstrate statistically a correlation between
 population and a specific activity, the score could be raised.  One exception is
 consumer/commercial solvent use where population could reasonably be expected to
 correlate with product usage and therefore with emissions.  This would still only get a 3
 because other demographic factors (e.g., age, gender, ethnic background) are likely to
 affect types and quantities of products used.

 Many adjustments to the factor should  be  included in  scoring this attribute.  These
 include rule effectiveness and rule penetration as well as  others that are determined by
 the definition or characteristics of the source. Accounting for adjustments to estimates is
 discussed in the section entitled "Adjustments to Estimates." The main point is that any
 adjustments that improve the match between source category and factor or activity adds
 to the DARS score.

 Spatial Congruity Attribute

 This attribute deals with the  spatial  scaling of factors and activity data that is common to
 inventories. Figures F-5 and F-6 show  the criteria used to score this attribute.  For
 example, in the previous section, the use of state-level DOE fuel consumption data was
 discussed.  With the exception of utilities' fuel consumption, sector fuel use by state is
 not measured directly. Various databases  and assumptions must be used to allocate
 national fuel use to state level.

 Furthermore, to use the  state data at a  county level, some method of apportionment
 must be used.  Typically, the ratio of county industrial  employment to state industrial
 employment is  used.  Unless  there are studies demonstrating a correlation between
 employment and emissions, an activity score of 3  is indicated. The activity in this case is
 representative of a larger scale, and the scaling factors are not correlated well with
 activity. If information or data can be used to verify or adjust the scaled data, the score
can be increased.  A lot  of judgment is  required for scoring this attribute.


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                             Factor developed for and
                             specific to the given spatial
                             scale.
          Factor spatial variability is
          expected to be LOW
4	

NO~
Factor developed for a region
larger or smaller than the one
applied to, or different region
of similar size.
                                       Factor developed for an
                                       unknown spatial scale, or
                                       spatial variability is unknown.
            Factor spatial variability is
            expected to be MODERATE
                                                NO
                                                   Factor spatial variability is
                                                   expected to be MODERATE
                                                   to HIGH (100%-1000%).
                     Factor spatial variability is
                     expected to be HIGH
       FIGURE F-5.  DARS SPATIAL SCALE ATTRIBUTE EMISSION FACTOR RATING
                                           FLOW CHART
F-12
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                                Activity data developed for
                                and specific to the geographic
                                region of the inventory.
           Activity scaling factors well
           correlated to the activity
           spatial variability is expected
           to be LOW (<10%).
Activity data scaled from a
region larger or smaller than
the one applied to or different
region of same size.
                                          Activity spatial scale
                                          variability is unknown.
            Activity scaling factors spatial
            variability is expected to be
            MODERATE (10%-100%).
                                                       [NO
                                                     Activity scaling factors spatial
                                                     variability is expected to be
                                                     MODERATE to HIGH
                                                     (100%-1000%).
                    Activity scaling factors spatial
                    variability is expected to be
                    HIGH (> 1000%).
    FIGURE F-6.  DARS SPATIAL SCALE ATTRIBUTE ACTIVITY RATING FLOW CHART

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Spatial scale considerations should include instances where emissions or activity from the
same scale are adapted for use in another region.  An example is the use of non-road
mobile emission studies for specific metropolitan areas applied to other metropolitan
areas. Activity scores will typically fall between 3 and 7 in this example, depending on
how well matched the two areas are.  Clearly, if some additional work has been done to
make the data match the intended source region better, that should be reflected in the
DARS scores.

The variability in the emission factor that is caused by spatial scaling problems is easy to
confuse with Source Specificity issues.  For this attribute, regional or local variability in
emissions that are attributable to climate, terrain, or other physical (environmental)
factors is included. For example, evaporative losses of volatile  organic compounds
(VOCs) are affected by temperature.  The emission factor equations for evaporative
losses from petroleum product storage and distribution allow for adjustments based on
local meteorological data.  If these adjustments have not been made, and if the potential
error is high, the DARS score is 3.  However, if local conditions are  not very different
from the values used to calculate default emission factors, the DARS score could go as
high as 8.

Temporal Congruity

This attribute describes the match between emission factor, activity, and temporal scale
of the inventory.  The scoring criteria are shown in  Figures F-7 and F-8.  The potential
mismatches  between an inventory estimate and the  data used to calculate it that are
included in this attribute are:

       1.     Emission factor or activity based on annual totals used to estimate hourly
             emissions.

      2.     Emission factors or activity based on short-term measurements  are
             extrapolated to longer time frames.

      3.     Emissions projected into the future based on estimates of future growth.

The guidance for DARS scoring here is probably the  most subjective of any of the
attributes. The approach to use is:

       1.     Determine if there are any temporal incongruities for the source categories
             (such as those described above).
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        flSTART
Factor developed for and
applicable to the same
temporal scale.
                                                                   YES
                  YES
                           Factor derived from an
                           average of repeated
                           measurement periods for the
                           same temporal scale.
Factor derived for a
longer/shorter time period, or
for a different year, season.
i
, |YES |
                          I
                                      Temporal variability is
                                      expected to be LOW
Factor temporal basis difficult
to assess lacking data to
establish temporal variability



Score
1
                                                           Temporal variability is
                                                             pected to be MODERATE
                                                           to LOW (10%-1
                          Temporal variability is
                          expected to be MODERATE
                          to HIGH (100%-1000%).

Score
3

4



|NO

^

Temporal variability is
expected to be HIGH
(>1000%).
 FIGURE F-7.  DARS TEMPORAL ATTRIBUTE EMISSION FACTOR RATING FLOW CHART
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                             Activity data specific for the
                             temporal period represented in
                             the inventory
                                                          Activity data representative of the
                                                          same temporal period, but based on
                                                          an average over several repeated
                                                          periods (e.g., average over 3 most
                                                          recent spring periods).
Activity data representative of
a longer/shorter period or a
different year or season.
^
, [YES]
                            i
                                         Temporal variability is
                                         expected to be LOW  (<10%)
Activity for a different period;
difficult or unable to assess
temporal variability.



Score
1
                                                                Temporal variability is
                                                                expected to be MODERATE
                                                                to LOW (10%-100%).
                            Temporal variability is
                            expected to be MODERATE
                            to HIGH (100%-1000%).
                                                               Temporal variability is
                                                               expected to be HIGH
      FIGURE F-8.  DARS  TEMPORAL ATTRIBUTE ACTIVITY RATING FLOW CHART

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       2.     Evaluate the likelihood that these incongruities have the potential to affect
             the emissions.

There is no simple answer here.  Some processes are fairly constant from year to year,
and fairly uniform throughout the year.  Others change dramatically from year to year,
and may fluctuate widely throughout the year.

Activity in many industries fluctuates with demand for their products.  These facilities do
not necessarily reduce employment; instead, the plant may shut down for a few weeks, or
they may go to shortened work weeks.  Emissions estimated using per employee factors
will not necessarily reflect this reduction in activity.

If the DARS scorer has reason to believe  any of these issues (and others) apply to a
source category, the DARS scores should be kept in the 3 to 5 range.  As with spatial
congruity, considerable judgment is  required unless actual data are available.

Comparison of Measurement and Source Specificity Attributes

Some additional guidance is needed to clarify how the measurement and source
specificity attributes are scored for both the emission factor and the activity:

       •      The source specificity attribute for the activity applies to the original choice
             of activity variable used when the factor was developed; for example, using
             "Ib of coating" as the activity for architectural surface coating  emissions
             would receive a higher source specificity score than using "population."

       •      The measurement attribute for the activity applies to the actual data used
             to estimate emissions in the  inventory being scored;  if population is
             required by the emission method chosen (i.e., a per capita factor is being
             used), and if population is measured directly, a score of 10 is  possible.  If
             coating consumption is being used, but had to be estimated, a score lower
             than 10 will be  given.

For the emission  factor scores,  it is important to keep in mind that it is the numerator in
the factor that you should consider.   This may require some research to  determine how
the emission factor was developed.  The general approach when developing a factor is to
first quantify emissions from the source, and then to express the emissions in terms of
some commonly available variable that is directly related to the emissive activity itself.
The original emissions (i.e., the numerator in the factor) were probably expressed in
terms of time and space (e.g., VOCs/day/spray booth, NOx/year/globally).  Two very
different examples of emission factor derivations are given as examples:
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       •      Company XYZ's coal-fired boiler emissions might be estimated using
             cumulative NOX emissions from the boiler's CEM data over 1 year's time;
             emissions are expressed as "tons NOX emitted from XYZ's boiler annually."

       •      Total VOCs from architectural surface coating use might be estimated by
             collecting national paint and coatings consumption data in 1 year,
             determining the average VOC content of those coatings, and assuming that
             all VOCs evaporate.  The emissions might be expressed as "tons VOCs
             emitted from the use of architectural surface coatings in the United States
             annually."

In both cases, the temporal interval is 1 year, but the spatial scales are quite different.
Either could be used to develop an emission factor.

The best factors are expressed in terms of a variable that is directly or indirectly related
to the emissive activity itself.  However, sometimes convenience is weighted more
heavily, and a less-well-correlated surrogate (such as population) is used.  Using the
previous  examples:

       •      Company XYZ's total coal use for the year is divided into the total NOX
             emissions to develop an emission factor. The units of the factor are "tons
             of NOX per ton of coal consumed."

       •      The VOCs from architectural surface coating are divided by the total
             national population. The units of this factor are "tons of VOCs per capita
             per year."

(Note that neither factor conveys any information about their original spatial scales. The
NOX factor also does not give any indication about the original temporal scale of the
data.)

When assigning a DARS score for the emission factor measurement attribute, only the
original emissions data should be rated.  The denominator (i.e., the activity) is rated
using the activity source specificity attribute.  Figure F-9 illustrates this; the boxes that
are applicable to the original  emission factor data are shaded.  This means that no
matter how poor the activity surrogate is,  the emission factor measurement score will be a 10
if the factor is based on valid, near-continuous data. This is illustrated using the NOX
example.
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Attribute
Measurement
Source Specificity
Spatial
Temporal
Factor
•** •. * •,



Activity

- - /^•A.V ">\ ?s '%%»"
t\ "* vV,V * '**•**. fV




 FIGURE F-9.  ATTRIBUTE SCORES BASED ON ORIGINAL FACTOR SHOWN As SHADED
                                      BOXES

Consider the following emission factors, all developed using the continuous CEM data
described above:

      •    Ib NOx/ton coal burned;
      •    Ib NOx/hours of operation;
      •    Ib NOx/rated capacity of boiler; and
      •    Ib NOx/boiler.

For each of these, the DARS emission factor measurement attribute is a 10. The activity
source specificity score for the first is a 9 (at least), for the second is a 6, for the third is
a 3, and for the last one is a 1.  This approach suggests that a partial DARS score could
be used to  rank emission factors (irrespective of how they are later applied). If DARS
becomes a  standard tool used by the states and EPA, the partial DARS scores could be
supplied with the  factor.  EIIP guidance has already started to use this approach.

ADJUSTMENTS TO ESTIMATES

Some inventories  require certain adjustments to the emission estimates or to the data
used in  the estimates. These adjustments may be prescribed for certain types of
inventories (e.g., rule efficiency in SIP inventories). Or, they  may be applied after the
inventory was created to make it suitable for a new use (e.g.,  allocation of emissions to a
grid for modelling purposes). Table F-3 lists some  of these adjustments and shows which
attribute score is affected. A brief description of each type of adjustment and  its
potential effect on DARS scores is given below. The reason for mapping an adjustment
to a particular attribute may not always be apparent; in fact, some of the pairings are
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                                          TABLE F-3
                   DARS ATTRIBUTES AFFECTED BY INVENTORY ADJUSTMENTS*
                                                                                                         I
Adjustments
Control efficiency (CE)
Rule effectiveness (RE)
Rule penetration (RP)
Speciation profiles
Seasonal activity factors
Allocation to grid cell
(modeling inventory)
Subtraction of point sources
from area
Projections (or backcasting)
of emissions
Measurement/
Method
e



X



	 b
a






X
X
Source Specificity
e
X
X





	 b
a


X




	 b
Spatial Congruity
e








a





X


Temporal
Congruity
e








a




X



a e = emission factor score; a = activity score.
b One or more of these sources may be impacted (see text).
I
s
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 debatable.  However, it is more important that the effect of an adjustment be accounted
 for only once, and that it be done consistently.

 Control Efficiency (CE) and Rule Effectiveness (RE)

 RE is an adjustment to CE that is used to account for deterioration, improper
 maintenance, or other factors  that lower the effectiveness of control equipment.  The use
 of RE affects the DARS emission factor source specificity score in the following ways:

       1.    If RE is not used at all, the base score is lowered unless justification is
             provided to show that RE is not applicable;

       2.    If RE has been calculated specifically for the source in the inventory
             region, the base  score is either unchanged or may be raised (default is  no
             change); and

       3.    If the EPA's default RE has been used, the base score is either unchanged
             or may be lowered (default  is no change).

 The decision to raise  or lower a score is situation-dependent. For example, if the base
 DARS score source specificity factor score is already high (9 or 10)  or very low (1 to 3),
 developing a source-specific RE value may have little effect on user confidence in the
 estimate. On the other hand,  ignoring RE completely should produce some doubt about
 the estimate.

 The reason that source specificity and not measurement/method is affected is that the
 measurement/method score is always based on the quality of the original factor.  The
 way in which the factor has been applied is addressed in the source  specificity attribute.

 Rule Penetration (RP)

 RP represents the fraction of the source population that is affected by a rule.  The
 activity parameter is adjusted using RP, so it is accounted for in the DARS score for the
 activity source specificity attribute. This attribute score is affected as follows:

      1.     If a control requirement exists but RP is not addressed, lower the score at
             least one point.

      2.     If RP is included (where appropriate), the base score is unaffected or
             possibly raised if inclusion of RP has a significant impact on the estimate.
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The decision to raise or not raise the score is situation-dependent.

Spec/at/on Profiles

The use of speciation profiles to estimate a specific pollutant type (e.g., specific
hazardous  air pollutants, PM-2.5) from a more general pollutant category (e.g., VOCs,
PM) is accounted  for in the emission factor measurement/method score.  Generally, the
method used to estimate the general pollutant is scored first; the application of a
speciation  profile usually results in lowering the score. However, if the speciation profile
can be shown to be very accurate, the effect on the score may be minimal.

Seasonal Activity Factors (SAFs)

SAFs are often used to adjust an annual value to a daily or seasonal estimate.  Because
it is usually more accurate to estimate a short-term value using data appropriate to that
time period, using an SAF will negatively impact the activity temporal congruity score.

Allocation to Grid Cell

Modelling  inventories for area or mobile sources are often prepared by allocating
emissions  to grid cells; the resulting inventory is more finely resolved (spatially) than the
original inventory.  Any impact on emissions  certainty is  accounted for in the activity
spatial congruity attribute because allocation is usually achieved by adjusting the activity
variable.

Point Sources Adjustment to Area Sources Emissions

Certain types of processes may be represented by both point and area sources. Typically,
the activity factor is adjusted by subtracting any point source activity from the total
activity before calculating the area source emissions. This should be considered when
scoring the activity measurement/method attribute.

Projections (or Backcasting) of Emissions

If emissions at some future date are  needed,  they must be estimated by projecting into
the future. Determining the DARS score for projection  inventories will generally be a
two-step process.  First, determine the scores for the inventory used as the basis for the
projections. Second, modify the attributes affected by the use of growth factors.

Usually, the activity measurement/method attribute is adversely affected by projections
because the activity is "grown" by some multiplier.  However, in some circumstances,
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 more than one attribute will be impacted.  In an example using utility boilers, forecasts
 may predict an increase in energy demand in the inventory region. This percentage of
 increase in demand may be used to "grow" the utility emissions from the base year.  This
 approach assumes that the base year proportions of processes (e.g., coal, oil,
 hydroelectric, solar) will not change and, furthermore, that  the emission factors for those
 processes will not change.  If these assumptions cannot be confidently made, the DARS
 score for emission factor measurement/method and for activity source specificity may be
 lowered (from the base year's) to reflect the decreased confidence in the estimate.

 A current example is any industry using paints or coatings that is subject to one of the
 new National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAPs) developed
 since the 1990 Clean  Air Act Amendments were passed.  These proposed Maximum
 Achievable Control Technology Standards (MACT) and Control Techniques Guidelines
 have resulted in significant changes in coatings formulations. These reformulated
 products are already in use and will increase in use over the next few years.  Changes in
 the formulations will  result in changes in emissions that will not be predictable.
 However, once all affected facilities are in compliance, the  emissions per unit activity
 should be more consistent from facility to facility.  Using a  1990 emission factor to
 estimate future emissions will  not produce reliable results.

 DARS:  POINT SOURCES

 Although DARS was  originally conceived as an application  for global inventories
 developed  using area source inventory methods, not as an application for point sources,
 the method can be applied to  inventories at any scale. However, the amount of time
 required to assign DARS scores to an entire point  source inventory for just one county
 can be quite  high. Even if simplified methods (as described below) are used, scoring an
 entire point source inventory will nearly always require more effort than required for the
 area and mobile source inventories.

 Point source  inventories are generally expected to be "better" (which usually is assumed
 to imply "more accurate") than area source inventories. Although the activity data are
 certainly likely to be more accurate, the same cannot be said for the emission factors.  In
 fact, emission factors are usually based  on a small sample of individual units  in the
 source category.  Using these factors to estimate emissions from another individual
 emission unit has a higher probability of error than using it  to estimate the sum of
 emissions of units (i.e., an area source approach).  This occurs because an average factor
will either under- or overestimate the emissions about half of the time.  However,
summing up these individual estimates tend to cancel out the errors. (Note that
according to this argument, the sum of the point source emissions is "better" than the
individual estimates.)

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Another problem with emission factors, however, is that they may be based on a biased
data set.  (The example cited earlier for SIREs applies here.)  If the emission factor is
based on a subset of the technologies covered by the source category, the factor may in
fact be misapplied (or at best a tenuous match) to units not represented in the original
data set.

For these reasons and others, it is generally not productive to evaluate every emission
unit within a facility, or even every facility, individually, if the overall objective is to rate
the point source inventory.  An easier (and just as  accurate) approach is to sort the point
source inventory emissions into categories based on methods used, e.g., source testing,
AP-42 factors, state factors, mass balance, and engineering judgment. Then, sort each of
these categories by the method used for the activity data (fuel/materials consumption,
production rate, hours usage).

DARS scores are then applied to these groups of sources rather than to individual
sources.  The scorer may want to spend more time on sources where source testing or
nonstandard  methods are used. Also, keep in mind that mass balance used at an
individual facility may be more accurate than when used to develop a national estimate.
If other losses (i.e., non-air releases) are accurately accounted for, the DARS activity
measurement score could reach a 9 (and possibly 10 if well supported).

Keeping the  above comments in mind, the general guidance given for area sources will
apply to  point sources.  For a given source type (e.g., industrial fuel consumption), if
AP-42 emission factors are used, the measurement attribute score will be the same as for
area sources. The scores for the other attributes will usually be different.

As stated above, several different approaches can be used to apply DARS to a point
source inventory. If a comparison of individual facilities is needed, each point source
must be  evaluated separately, applying DARS scores to each emission unit (or collection
of similar units).  The individual scores are then weighted by the percentage contribution
to total facility  emissions. A more common approach  is to  assess the point source
inventory overall, rather than dealing with individual point sources.  Sources are grouped
in some  logical way (such as by Source Classification Code), and DARS scores are
assigned to those groupings. An example  using this approach is shown in the next
section.

APPLICATION OF DARS TO RICHMOND, VA, POINT SOURCE INVENTORY

In this inventory, five  different estimation  methods were used to estimate emissions for
point sources (Ballou,  1995). These  methods and the  rationale for the DARS scores  are
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discussed in the following subsections in order from highest to lowest composite
emissions score.

Continuous Emissions Monitoring

This method is generally considered the best method for emission estimates if the
associated data quality and coverage goals are met.  However, no estimate is 100%
accurate and a margin of equipment downtime or data loss is allowed when accepting
this type of data. As a result, a score of 9 was applied to the measurement attribute to
reflect this.  This could be raised or lowered if actual coverage and completeness data
were available.  If monitored correctly, all other scores could achieve scores of 1.0. In
the case of this inventory, there were no estimates based on this method.
Attribute
Measurement
Specificity
Spatial
Temporal
Composite
Factor
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.975
Activity
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.975
Emissions
0.81
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.95
Source Stack Testing

This is the next highest-rated method for developing emission estimates. However,
because most stack test data used for inventories come from compliance tests based on
small samples running "typical" loads, lower scores were assigned to the measurement
attribute.  Lower scores were also assigned to the temporal attribute since it is likely that
the factor and activity data are based on different time periods or seasons/years.  A
small number of emission estimates in the inventory were based on stack test results.
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Attribute
Measurement
Specificity
Spatial
Temporal
Composite
Factor
0.8
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.9
Activity
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.925
Emissions
0.72
1.0
1.0
0.64
0.84
Mass Balance Calculation

In a deviation from the DARS flow charts, mass balance calculations were assigned a
higher score for evaporative and/or process emissions at point sources. This was done
assuming that all losses are accounted for as part of these calculations. A substantial
number of VOC estimates in the inventory were based on mass balance calculations as
well as a lesser amount of process NOX emissions.
Attribute
Measurement
Specificity
Spatial
Temporal
Composite
Factor
0.7
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.875
Activity
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.775
Emissions
0.63
1.0
1.0
0.64
0.8175
Source-specific Emission Factors

For this evaluation, source-specific emission factors were rated a step above AP-42
factors but below the methods already discussed.  The reason for this is that these factors
are derived from source-specific information, based on other more accurate estimation
methods (stack tests and mass balance) or tests made  on similar equipment elsewhere.
Therefore, source specificity and the overall score is slightly lower for this reason.
Relatively few estimates were based on these types of calculations.
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Attribute
Measurement
Specificity
Spatial
Temporal
Composite
Factor
0.7
0.8
1.0
0.8
0.825
Activity
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.925
Emissions
0.63
0.8
1.0
0.64
0.7675
AP-42 Emission Factors

The official AP-42 emission factors, and the computerized factors based on AP-42 are
rated at this point in the hierarchy of methods.  The major dilemma in assigning a single
DARS score to AP-42 factors is the variation in the quality of the factors. To try to
address this quality variability, different scores were assigned to the measurement
attribute factor rating based on the factor rating in AP-42 (if available).  This was an
easier task in the case of NOX because the AP-42 factors are generally combustion
related, well documented, and of better quality. This was much more difficult for VOC
factors that had little  or no documentation of quality, and had no ratings in many cases.
When no rating could be found, the lowest score was assigned. The scores assigned were
based on the information shown in Table F-2.
Attribute
Measurement
Specificity
Spatial
Temporal
Composite
Factor
0.4 to 0.6
0.7
1.0
0.8
0.725 to 0.775
Activity
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.925
Emissions
0.36 to 0.54
0.7
1.0
0.64
0.675 to 0.72
Expert Judgment/Guess

For obvious reasons, this method of emission calculation is ranked lowest because of the
lack of any information on the data and calculations used to make such estimates.  A
small number of emission estimates were developed using this method.
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APPENDIX F - DARS
      8/9/96
Attribute
Measurement
Specificity
Spatial
Temporal
Composite
Factor
0.1
0.6
1.0
0.7
0.6
Activity
0.8
0.8
1.0
0.7
0.825
Emissions
0.08
0.48
1.0
0.49
0.51
These scores were then applied to the source emissions at the process level.  The DARS
scores for each process were multiplied by the relative contribution of that process to
total point source inventory emissions to produce a weighted DARS score. An example
for two  sources is shown in Table F-4.  The sum of these weighted  emissions is the
overall DARS score for the inventory.  In this example, the  composite DARS score for
the NOX inventory was 0.76; for the  VOC inventory, 0.72.

APPLICATION OF DARS TO COMPLEX MODELS

Emission inventories are not usually thought of as models, but in fact they are. A model
is a representation of reality.  In an  emission inventory, the  model may be as simple as

                        emissions  = emission factor x activity

Or, a complex, computer-based model may be used to estimate the emission  factor, the
activity,  or both. The same guidance given previously in this appendix for simple models
(i.e., emission factor x activity) can be applied to the use of more complex models such
as those used to estimate mobile source emissions.

One factor to be considered when rating complex  emission factor models is whether the
model is based solely  on theory (i.e., first principles). Theoretical models generally rate
a 3 for the measurement attribute factor score (see Figure F-l).  If the model has been
validated or calibrated using real-world measurements, the model results are  considered
better. Empirical models (e.g., statistical regressions) are not necessarily better or worse
than theoretical or deterministic models. In both cases, the  degree to which key
explanatory variables have been included and the amount of variability reduced affect
the quality.

A key point to keep in mind is that  increased model complexity does not necessarily imply
better quality emission factors.  If default input values are used to estimate an  emission
F-28
EIIP Volume VI

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8/9/96
APPENDIX F - DARS
                               TABLE F-4

         EXAMPLE OF 1990 POINT SOURCE DARS EVALUATION FOR NOX
                 (RICHMOND OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA)
Plant Name
Facility 1
Facility 2
Emissions
95.15
2685.27
0.8
2270.52
86.35
0.6
2420.04
91.85
0.8
1846.72
70.4
0.6
2404.08
91.3
0.8
55
0.2
56.1
0.2
57.2
0.06
486.66
217.25
159.47
161.2717
6175.324
6815.7
16.32
16298.25
% of Total
0.000329
0.009304
0.000002
0.007867
0.000299
0.000002
0.008385
0.000318
0.000002
0.006399
0.000243
0.000002
0.008330
0.000316
0.000002
0.000190
0.000000
0.000194
0.000000
0.000198
0.000000
0.001686
0.000752
0.000552
0.000558
0.021398
0.023617
0.000056
0.056476
DARS Score
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.675
0.675
0.675
0.6975
0.6975
0.72
0.675
0.72
Weighted Score
0.00023739
0.00669958
0.00000199
0.00566480
0.00021543
0.00000149
0.00603785
0.00022916
0.00000199
0.00460750
0.00017564
0.00000149
0.00599803
0.00022778
0.00000199
0.00013722
0.00000049
0.000139%
0.00000049
0.00014271
0.00000014
0.0011383
0.00050814
0.00037300
0.00038978
0.01492558
0.01700475
0.00003817
0.04066312
EIIP Volume VI
           F-29

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APPENDIX F - DARS
      8/9/96
Plant Name

Facility 3
Facility 4
Emissions
16.8
36635.85
34.56
62202.75
68.64
0.66
105.374
6
101.2
484
14.72
422.4
2051.5
37.95
4
4
583
11
126
29
23
6434
291
823
12229
12817
15806
10360
8903
4640
% of Total
0.000058
0.126950
0.000119
0.215544
0.000237
0.000002
0.000365
0.000020
0.000350
0.001677
0.000051
0.001463
0.007108
0.000131
0.000013
0.000013
0.002020
0.000038
0.000436
0.000100
0.000079
0.022295
0.001008
0.002851
0.042375
0.044413
0.054770
0.035899
0.030850
0.016078
DARS Score
0.675
0.72
0.675
0.72
0.675
0.72
0.675
0.5125
0.72
0.72
0.675
0.72
0.72
0.675
0.72
0.72
0.8175
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
Weighted Score
0.00003929
0.09140418
0.00008083
0.15519201
0.00016054
0.00000164
0.00024647
0.00001065
0.00025248
0.00120755
0.00003443
0.00105386
0.00511836
0.00008876
0.00000997
0.00000997
0.00165151
0.00003201
0.00036675
0.00008441
0.00006694
0.01872783
0.00084703
0.00239555
0.03559569
0.03730722
0.04600749
0.03015548
0.02591450
0.01350593
F-30
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 8/9/96                                                            APPENDIX F - DARS
factor, the resulting computer model-generated factor may be no better than a national
average factor based on measurements or mass balance; if, however, site-specific input
data are used, the emission factor produced by the model is of better quality than the
default.

For the modeled emission factor, most of the effort will focus on the measurement
attribute score.  However, for some models such as MOBILES a  that provide national
default inputs, the spatial congruity attribute should be carefully evaluated as well. If
specific local inputs were  used, the spatial congruity score for the factor may rate as high
as 10.  If national defaults were used, the score will be lower.

When scoring the measurement attribute for an emission factor or activity developed
using a model, ask the following questions:

       Step 1.      Is the model entirely theoretical?  This means it has never been
                   validated or calibrated using real-world data, and no empirical
                   measurement data were used in developing  the model equations.  If
                   yes, then the factor measurement attribute score is 3; if no, go to
                   Step  2.

       Step 2.      Were some parts of the model based on empirical data, either
                   limited field data, or laboratory or bench-scale data?  If yes, do
                   these "parts" have a significant impact on the model results? If no,
                   the score may be raised slightly, but  not greater than 4.

                   If yes, go to Step 3.

       Step 3.      Has significant real-world validation/calibration of the model been
                   done and has  this demonstrably improved the  modeFs capability to
                   produce  accurate emission factors? If yes, have these capabilities
                   been used by the inventory developer to their  maximum capability?
                   If no, do not increase the score any higher.  If yes, the score may be
                   raised as high as  9 (but only if the model has been demonstrated to
                   be highly accurate and its full potential  has been used).

If a model is used to calculate activity, the same considerations apply.  For example,
travel demand modules may be used to calculate vehicle miles travelled (VMT) for a
mobile source inventory. The first step is to determine a score for source specificity:
how good a surrogate is VMT for combustion of fuel in an internal combustion engine?
This score does not consider how VMT was calculated. Developing the measurement
score requires consideration of the quality of the model.


EIIP Volume VI                                                                    F-31

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APPENDIX F - DARS                                                           8/9/96
By now, it should be clear that the scores for complex models are assigned using
essentially the same criteria as for any area source. Furthermore, no matter how
complex the model, the relevance of its results with respect to real-world data must be
demonstrated in order  for higher scores to be achieved.

REFERENCES

Ballou, T., R.L. Peer, and V. Chandler.  1995. Evaluation of an Inventory Rating System:
An EIIP QAC Project.  Presented at the Air & Waste Management Association's
Emission Inventory Conference, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

Beck, L., R. Peer, L. Bravo, and Y. Van.  1994.  A Data Attribute Rating System.
Presented at the Air & Waste Management Association's Emission Inventory
Conference, Raleigh, North Carolina.
p_32                                                                   EIIP Volume VI

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i
VOLUME VI: CHAPTER 5
MODEL  QA  PLAN
November 1996
                           Prepared by:
                           Eastern Research Group

                           Prepared for:
                           Quality Assurance Committee
                           Emission Inventory Improvement Program

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                                  DISCLAIMER

This document was furnished to the Emission Inventory Improvement Program and the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency by Eastern Research Group, Inc., Morrisville,
North Carolina.  This report is intended to be a final document and has been reviewed
and approved for publication.  The opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed
represent a consensus of the members of the Emission Inventory Improvement Program.
Mention of company or product names is not to be considered an endorsement by the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
                             Volume VI, Chapter 5 - V105.doc/mch
                                  Eastern Research Group
                                   Post Office Box 2010
                                  Morrisville, NC 27560

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 1
INTRODUCTION
This is the final chapter of the Quality Assurance Procedures volume.  The model quality
assurance (QA) plan presented here illustrates the principles described in the other chapters of
this volume. The plan uses fictitious Ozoneville for a QA plan for a State Implementation
Plan (SIP) emissions inventory.  Because it is intended to be a model QA plan, the remainder
of this chapter does not adhere to Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP)  format
and style used elsewhere in this volume.

This model QA plan was prepared by the EIIP  Quality Assurance Committee.  The EIIP
Quality Assurance Committee was formed  to develop  (1) a plan for the EIIP's QA program,
(2) a comprehensive QA procedures volume, and (3) an emission inventory quality rating
system.

Throughout the EIIP QA procedures volume, the concept was developed of delineating
inventories into one of four inventory levels. Ultimately, it is the end use of an inventory
that delineates the inventory level, which in turn determines the minimum requirements
needed in the QA program, for staffing assignments, and for documentation and reporting.

A SIP emissions  inventory is considered by EIIP to be a Level II inventory because it will
provide supportive data for strategic decisions making. Although the requirements for a
Level II inventory are less stringent than those  for a Level I  inventory (which will be used to
support enforcement, compliance, or litigation activities), the minimum elements required for
QA and technical work plans are identical.  These elements are reflected in this model QA
plan.

As discussed in other chapters of the QA procedures volume, there is flexibility in selecting
preferred or alternative staffing options,  developing separate  or combined QA and technical
work plans, and delineating activities that will be part of the QA/Quality Control (QC)
program. Because of this flexibility, the model QA plan presented in this chapter should not
be viewed as a template that  must be strictly followed by a state agency preparing an ozone
nonattainment  area emissions inventory.  The level of detail presented in this QA plan and
level of effort  described in the QA/QC program may vary in a state's actual QA plan, and
the plan would still be acceptable to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
EIIP Volume VI                                                         ,1.1-1

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CHAPTER 5 - MODEL QA PLAN                                                    7 7/7 j/gg
For example, in preparing the point source emissions inventory for Ozoneville, the model QA
plan states that the Inventory Development Team will send the permit branch's emissions
data to each permitted facility for verification.  An option would be to send the emissions
data only to facilities that have been flagged by the enforcement branch as having potential
problems.

While this model QA plan may appear to provide an unattainable QA/QC goal for a SIP
emissions inventory, it can serve as the basis from which a hierarchy of procedures and
methods can be developed.  An agency can identify their most critical inventory needs, and
focus their resources in these areas.  QA/QC activities listed in this model QA plan can then
be selected on the basis of these priorities.
 1.1-2                                                                       EIIP Volume VI

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        1996 OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA
STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN EMISSION INVENTORY
            QUALITY ASSURANCE PLAN
                    Prepared By:

       Ozoneville Department of Environmental Quality
                   November 1996

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II

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                            TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section                                                                    Page


1.0   INTRODUCTION  	1-1

      1.1    Purpose of Inventory	1-1
      1.2    Data Quality Objectives and Indicators  	1-1
      1.3    Summary of Quality Assurance Plan Organization	1-3

2.0   PROGRAM SUMMARY	2-1

      2.1    Major Program Components	2-1
      2.2    Inventory Constraints  	2-5

3.0   PURPOSE AND POLICY STATEMENT FOR THE 1996 OZONEVILLE
      STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN OZONE NONATTAINMENT
      EMISSIONS INVENTORY	3-1

4.0   EMISSIONS INVENTORY PREPARATION PLAN	4-1

      4.1    Managerial Responsibilities 	4-1
      4.2    Inventory Development Task Leaders 	4-3
      4.3    Inventory Development Team Members	4-3
      4.4    Technical Reviewers	4-3
      4.5    Quality Assurance Coordinator	4-4

5.0   GENERAL QA/QC PROCEDURES	5-1

      5.1    QC Activities	5-1

            5.1.1  Data Gathering	5-1
            5.1.2  Data Documentation	5-2
            5.1.3  Calculating Emissions	5-4
            5.1.4  Data Checking and DARS Scoring 	5-4
            5.1.5  Reporting  	5-6
            5.1.6  Maintenance of Master File	5-9

      5.2    QA Activities	5-9

            5.2.1  Training/Education	5-11
            5.2.2  Audits	5-12
            5.2.3  Reporting Audit Findings  	5-13

6.0   CORRECTIVE ACTION MECHANISMS	6-1
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                    TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued)

Section                                                             Page


7.0   POINT SOURCE INVENTORY PREPARATION AND
     QA/QC ACTIVITIES	7-1

8.0   AREA SOURCE INVENTORY PREPARATION AND QA/QC ACTIVITIES .  . 8-1

9.0   ON- AND NONROAD MOBILE SOURCE INVENTORY PREPARATION
     AND QA/QC ACTIVITIES	9-1

     9.1    Onroad Mobile Sources	9-1
     9.2    Nonroad Mobile Sources	9-5

10.0  BIOGENIC SOURCE INVENTORY PREPARATION AND QA/QC
     ACTIVITIES	10-1

11.0  DATA REPORTING  	11-1

12.0  REFERENCES 	12-1
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                                 LIST OF FIGURES

Figure                                                                           Page

1-1    Area Map for the Ozoneville MSA Emissions Inventory - 1996  	1-2

2-1    Inventory Development Process and Identification of QA Checkpoints	2-3

2-2    Ozoneville MSA 1990 Emissions Inventory Audit Schedule	2-4

2-3    Recommendation for Corrective Action Form	2-6

4-1    Ozoneville MSA 1996 Emission Inventory QA Organization	4-2

5-1    Contact Report	5-5

5-2    Area Source Category QA/QC Checklist  	5-7

5-3    Master File Sign-Out Sheet  	5-10

7-1    Point Source Survey Form for Stationary Combustion Sources  	7-4

8-1    Area Source Data Log Sheet  	8-5
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                                  LIST OF TABLES

Table                                                                             Page

1-1    Data Quality Objectives	1-4

1-2    Data Quality Indicators	1-4

2-1    Possible Effect of Constraints on Ozoneville MSA 1996 Emissions Inventory .  . .  2-7

5-1    Data Collection Guidance Documents  	5-2

8-1    Area Sources to Include in 1996 Inventory and Proposed Emission Estimation
       Method	8-2
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1.6          INTRODUCTION

1.1          Purpose of Inventory

             The 1996 Ozone Nonattainment Area State Implementation Plan (SIP)
emissions inventory is being developed in response to requirements specified in the Clean Air
Act Amendments of 1990.  The inventory addresses volatile organic compounds (VOCs),
carbon monoxide (CO), and oxides of nitrogen (NOJ from point, area, and mobile emission
sources.  Emissions of VOCs are also addressed for biogenic sources.

             The area covered by the inventory includes the Ozoneville Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA), which was designated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(U.S. EPA) as a serious nonattainment area for ozone. The geographical area delineated by
the MSA is shown on the map in Figure 1-1.  The map shows the area boundary that was
established to avoid unnecessary judgment calls pertaining to the precise  location of particular
facilities in relation to the MSA borders.

             In addition to the regulatory requirements  specified by the U.S. EPA, this
periodic  inventory is being developed to meet the following objectives:

             •     Determine trends in emission levels, both historically and prospectively;
             •     Track the 3 percent annual emission reduction requirement for
                    nonattainment pollutants;
             •     Develop and evaluate air quality-related indicators for measuring
                    progress in attaining ambient standards; and
             •     Determine the effect of transportation and other control measures on
                    the region's emissions.

1.2          Data Quality Objectives and Indicators

             The 1996 Ozone Nonattainment Area SIP emission inventory for Ozoneville is
considered a Level II inventory, based on guidance provided by the Emission Inventory
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                            Boundary of Counties
                            Included in Modeling
                              Domain Inventory *
                                                                                      UAM Modeling
                                                                                    Domain Boundary *
                      Ozoneville Nonattainment Area
                      Ozoneville Metropolitan Area
          *Note: specify for areas required to perform air quality modeling for attainment demonstration purposes.
                                                                                                    \
                                                                                                      \
                                                                                                             <
        Figure  1-1.  Area Map for the Ozoneville MSA Emissions Inventory - 1996
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1-2

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Improvement Program (EIIP) (EIIP, 1996).  It is a Level II inventory because it will provide
supportive data for strategic decision making.  The end use of this inventory, therefore,
drives the minimum  QA and work plan requirements.

              As shown in Table 1-1, data quality objectives (DQOS) were established to
help ensure the accuracy, completeness, representativeness, and comparability of the
inventory, in keeping with the EIIP's guidance for Level II inventories.

              Table 1-2 presents the data quality indicators (DQIs) that will be used to
measure progress towards each DQO.  The Data Attribute Rating System (DARS) will be
used to verify the  desired inventory accuracy DQO.

1.3           Summary of Quality Assurance Plan Organization

              The remainder of this quality assurance plan (QAP) is organized as follows:
Section 2.0 contains the program summary that describes the major components of the
inventory development  and QA/Quality Control (QC) program; Section  3.0 presents the
purpose and policy statement.   Section 4.0 contains the emissions inventory preparation plan,
which  contains details on the organizational structure, roles,  and training of inventory
development and QA/QC team members.  Section 5.0 discusses QA/QC procedures that will
be implemented throughout the project, and Section 6.0 describes the corrective action
mechanisms that will be implemented as needed.  Sections 7.0 through 10.0 discuss the
methods that will be used to prepare the point, area, onroad  mobile, nonroad mobile, and
biogenic source inventories, as well as planned QA/QC activities for each source category.
Section 11.0 presents the data reporting procedures that will be followed, and Section 12.0
presents reference citations for all data sources discussed in this QAP.
2S8-130-87-02\mchWi05.doc
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                       TABLE 1-1.  DATA QUALITY OBJECTIVES
   Data Quality
     Objective
                    Procedure for Achieving Objective
 Accuracy
For point and onroad mobile sources, 100% of the calculations will be
checked by the data generator, and 20% of the calculations will be checked
by another equally qualified inventory development team (IDT) member.  For
area, nonroad mobile, and biogenic sources, 100% of the calculations will be
checked by the data generator, and 10% of the calculations will be checked
by another equally qualified IDT member.  In all cases, the data validator
will develop a written summary of his or her activities, and will conduct
follow-up activities to ensure that data are corrected as needed.  If more than
5% of the calculations checked by an equally qualified IDT member need to
be revised, then 100% of the calculations will be checked.
 Completeness
Extensive planning will be conducted prior to data collection to identify all
applicable emission sources.  After identifying these sources, the goal will be
to determine 100% of the emissions from the largest emitting sources from
each source category and as many of the minor sources as possible within the
time frame allotted for the work.  Those sources identified but not included
in the inventory will  be identified in the data file and final report.
 Representativeness
Senior technical personnel will review all of the primary source data and
compare it to previous emissions results and similar results from comparable
regions to determine the reasonableness of the emissions estimates and
representativeness of the data.
 Comparability
To ensure that the data are comparable, standard procedures will be followed
and results will be presented in the same units that were used in the 1993
inventory.  If a new or improved emission estimation method is used, the
1993  estimate will be recalculated or adjusted to ensure comparability.
                        TABLE 1-2.  DATA QUALITY INDICATORS
DQO
Accuracy
Completeness
Representativeness
Comparability
Inventory DQI Target Values
• Achieve DARS score >0.7 for all area sources contributing >10% of total
emissions of VOCs or NOX.
• Achieve DARS score >0.8 for all point sources >100 tons per year (tpy).
• Achieve DARS score >0.7 for onroad mobile source inventory.
• Achieve DARS score of >0.5 for nonroad mobile source inventory.
• 100% of all point sources >100 tpy.
• 90% of all other point sources.
• Top 15 area sources listed in 1990 base year SIP inventory.
• Counties A, B, C, and D.
• 1996 daily ozone season.
• Results to be compared to 1993 inventory.
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                         1-4

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2.0          PROGRAM SUMMARY

             This QAP provides written instructions for the technical and quality aspects
associated with development of the 1996 Ozoneville emissions inventory.  It is designed so
that QA/QC procedures are implemented throughout the whole inventory development
process.  This will ensure  that the inventory is as complete as possible, accurate, comparable,
and representative of the MSA.  Personnel involved with the inventory and their
responsibilities  are discussed in Section 4.0.

2.1          Major Program Components

             Inventory tasks and QC procedures will include data checking by the inventory
development team (IDT) throughout the development of the inventory and final emission
report.  These procedures  include, but are not limited to, the following:

              •      The development and implementation of written procedures for data
                     gathering,  data assessment, data handling,  calculation of emissions, and
                     reporting;
              •      Adequate management and supervision of the work;
              •      Review of all calculations for technical  soundness and accuracy,
                     including verification that the appropriate  emission factors were used
                     and  the impacts of controls were  correctly addressed;
              •      Correct assignment of source category codes;
              •      Assignment of DARS scores;
              •      Use of technically sound approaches when developing results based on
                     engineering judgment;
              •      Documentation of the data in  a manner that will allow reconstruction of
                     all inventory development activities; and
              •      Maintenance of an orderly master file of all the data gathered and a
                     copy-ready version of the final inventory  submitted to the U.S. EPA.
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              QA activities are distinguished from QC activities in that they provide a more
objective assessment of data quality because QA personnel are not directly involved in the
development of the inventory. QA activities are usually more comprehensive because they
include assessments of the effectiveness and appropriateness of the systems established by
management to control data quality.

              The QA program is equal in importance to inventory development and QC
procedures,  and includes a series of well-planned audits and training sessions that will be
conducted by a trained QA staff.  QA staff will not be involved in the development of the
emission inventory in order to provide an objective assessment of the  quality of the work and
data.

              The value of the QA program is that it highlights the effectiveness of the
inventory development program.  It can identify points in the process  that require
improvements in quality in a timely manner.

              Audits will be conducted during the collection of the data, calculation of
emissions, and development of the final report to determine whether QC  requirements
specified in this QAP are met.  The audit schedule includes quality evaluations at critical
points in the inventory development process where data quality could be  compromised. The
QA Coordinator is also authorized to  conduct additional audits, if needed, to ensure that
corrective actions are implemented as planned and the work is progressing according to the
proposed schedule.  The critical phases of the inventory development  process and points at
which data  quality and technical systems audits will be conducted are identified in
Figure 2-1.  The audit schedule, the identities of the QA auditors, and estimated level  of
effort for each audit are provided  in Figure 2-2.

              QA training will be conducted to ensure that the IDT is aware of the quality
issues of concern and expectations of the auditors.  This training will include an overview of
QC requirements and items on the audit checklist.  Training will also be conducted to
improve compliance with QA/QC requirements, as needed.
 298-130-87-02\mch\vi05.doc                            _
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Enter Data into
EllP-compatible
Format


Documentation
Report
   Figure 2-1. Inventory Development Process and Identification of QA Checkpoints
298-130-87-02\mch\vi05 doc
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2-3

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November Data/Report Audit



December Data/Report Audit


Estimated Level
Objective of Audit Auditor of Effort (Hours)
Evaluate data documentation and data file S. Carr 36
maintenance procedures; supervise activities;
train personnel.
Determine accuracy of sets of area, point, G. Marts <8
mobile, and biogenic data entry into
spreadsheets and emission calculations.
Evaluate adequacy of computer system: S. Carr 24
accessibility, memory capacity, ease of use,
response time, etc.
Evaluate effectiveness of data review and G. Marts 12
corrective action process; check
documentation of reviews, corrective actions,
and follow-up activities.
Determine accuracy of sets of area, point, S. Carr <8
mobile and biogenic data entry into
spreadsheets and emission calculations.

Verify accuracy of emission results included G. Marts 24
in draft report and compliance to reporting
requirements.

Check accuracy of at least 20% of the S. Carr 12
emission results included on each page of the
report; check completeness of data file.
*Note: The schedule will be revised, as needed, to include critical phases of inventory development for each source type (point, area, mobile, and
biogenic).


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2.2          Inventory Constraints


             The QA Coordinator and Inventory Development Manager have been made

aware of several constraints that will impact the inventory development process.  The primary

constraints are the availability of adequate state funds, inadequacies in the state's computer

system, and  limited access to the state's computer system.  In response, the QA Coordinator

has made the Director of the Ozoneville Department of Environmental Quality (ODEQ) and

the Inventory Development Manager aware of the following impacts that these constraints

could have on the DQOs and deadline for completing the inventory:


             (1)    Limited funds could mean that the  resources required are not available
                    to complete the inventory by the deadline and meet the data quality
                    goals.  Additional personnel recommended to complete the inventory on
                    time and within budget cannot be hired.

             (2)    The computer system deficiencies identified during a previous audit
                    cannot be improved at this time. (See previous audit finding on
                    recommendation for corrective action form included as Figure 2-3.)
                    The computer system currently used by the state does not have
                    sufficient memory to handle some of the emissions programs designed
                    to perform  calculations and manage the data.  This could potentially
                    affect the accuracy and completeness of the inventory because the
                    computer will not be used exclusively to manage the data, perform
                    routine data searches, and calculate emissions.

             (3)    Limited access to the computer system also may mean that many
                    calculations, data evaluations, and data searches will have to be
                    conducted manually. Consequently, there is a higher risk of human
                    error and it will take longer to complete the inventory.


Table 2-1 summarizes the possible impacts that these constraints may have on the inventory

development process as well as the deadline for submitting the inventory to the U.S. EPA.


             The U.S. EPA has been made aware  of these constraints and the need for

additional funds.   The QA Coordinator has designed a QA program to minimize the negative

impacts that these constraints could have on the quality of the  data.  The program includes

modification of the QA/QC approach and procedures  to include the following:

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RECOMMENDATION FOR CORRECTIVE ACTION
A. Initial Information

RCA NO 0001 DATE: 9/2/93
ORIGINATOR APPROVED
Steve Carr NHD
ORGANIZATION/INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTION'
ODEQ, Dave Jones
B. Problem Identification
SITE/LAB'
Agency Office (DEQ)
URGENCY LEVEL 1,2
BY:
1 Potential for major revisions needed.
2. Potential for failure to achieve data quality objective.
" "' 3 Suggested improvement.

SYSTEM. DATE PROBLEM IDENTIFIED.
Computer Support 9/1/93
DESCRIPTION OF PROBLEM:
The computer system does not have enough memory to store emissions data and calculate
emissions results. The response time is also very slow. Therefore, time is wasted waiting
for the system to respond to commands.
C. Recommended Corrective Action
DESCRIPTION-
IMPLEMENT BY:
Provide sufficient memory and improve the response time of the computer system to allow
the users to use the system to calculate emissions and manage the data in an effective
manner.
D. Problem Resolution
PLANNED CORRECTIVE PROPOSED BY Jim Hal
ACTION:
Monica White, D. .
DATE PROPOSED: SCHEDULE IMPLEMENTATION:
Jones 9/15/93 2/15/94
The computer system will be upgraded to provide sufficient memory to manage the
emission inventory data and calculate emissions results. This upgrade will also improve
the response time.
IMPLEMENTED CORRECTIVE ACTIONS:
DATE IMPLEMENTED:

E. QA Verification
VERIFIED BY.

DATE: COMMENTS:




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Figure 2-3.  Recommendation for Corrective Action Form

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   TABLE 2-1.  POSSIBLE EFFECT OF CONSTRAINTS ON OZONEVILLE MSA 1996
                               EMISSIONS INVENTORY
Identification of
Constraint
Insufficient Funds
Inadequate Computer
System
Limited Access to
Computer System
Impact on Inventory
Not
Representative
/


Incomplete
/
/

Less
Accurate
/
/
/
Deadline Not
Met
/
/
/
                    Prioritization of categories so that resources will be allocated
                    preferentially to critical data and sources;

                    Additional meetings to discuss the status of the work, results from data
                    reviews/audits, and corrective actions;

                    More comprehensive QA audits; and

                    Cross training of the IDT.
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3.0          PURPOSE AND POLICY STATEMENT FOR THE 1996 OZONEVILLE
             STATE IMPLEMENTATION PLAN OZONE NONATTAINMENT
             EMISSIONS INVENTORY
             This point, area, mobile, and biogenic emissions inventory is being developed
in response to the requirements specified in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 for
VOCs, CO, and NOX emission estimates. Because of the potential usefulness of the
information gathered, every effort will be made to generate data that are accurate,
representative, and comparable.

             In order to provide data of sufficient quality, ODEQ has developed this QAP.
It includes all of the critical elements recommended in the U.S. EPA document, Guidance for
the Preparation of Quality Assurance Plans for Ozone/Carbon Monoxide State
Implementation Plan Emission Inventories (U.S. EPA, 1988), as well as guidance provided
through the EIIP (EIIP, 1996).

             Implementation of the QA and QC procedures described in this QAP is fully
supported by the IDT, the Inventory Development Manager, and the QA Coordinator.  This
support is evidenced by their  commitment to implement the procedures as described in this
QAP and generate data of known quality.

             QC procedures described in this document were developed with the consensus
of the QA Coordinator. The  procedures were developed to provide a comprehensive program
that includes QC measures that are implemented by the IDT, as well as QA measures that are
implemented independently by the QA Coordinator and other QA personnel.

             It is the responsibility of the IDT to report deviations from the procedures
described in the QAP immediately to the Inventory Development  Manager and QA
Coordinator. The impact of the deviations on the inventories will be evaluated and the
appropriate corrective actions will be taken to ensure that the technical and DQOs are met.
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             The Inventory Development Manager and QA Coordinator have worked with
the Air Pollution Control Director and the Director of ODEQ to assure that adequate
resources and a sufficient number of trained personnel are provided to meet the objectives of
the work and to meet the deadline for submitting the inventory to the U.S. EPA.
Air Pollution Control Director     	       Date
Director of ODEQ                	       Date
Inventory Development Manager   	       Date
QA Coordinator                  	       Date
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4.0          EMISSIONS INVENTORY PREPARATION PLAN

             The organization of the IDT and the QA team results in supervision of all
aspects of the inventory development activities and independent QA audits, and establishes a
direct line of communication to the State Director of Air Pollution on unresolved QA issues.
The organization chart is presented as Figure 4-1.  The responsibilities of the key personnel
identified on the organization chart are discussed below.

4.1          Managerial  Responsibilities

             The Air Pollution  Control Director, Dr.  Mary Clean, will work with the
U.S. EPA to obtain additional resources to complete the inventory by the agreed upon
deadline.  Meetings will be held  routinely with the Environmental Quality Department
Director, Dave Jones, and the QA Coordinator, Steve Carr, to keep Dr. Clean informed of the
status of work.  Dr. Clean will also handle any unresolved quality issues that may arise as a
result of a QA audit.

             Mr. Dave Jones, Director of ODEQ, is ultimately responsible for compliance
with the requirements specified in the Clean Air Act Amendments. He has designated the
person in the agency who will be responsible  for the management of the inventory
development activities (the  Inventory Development Manager) and will work with the
Inventory Development Manager, Air Pollution Control Director,  and EPA to provide the
resources needed to complete the inventory.

             Ms. Monica  White, Inventory Development Manager,  will plan and manage all
inventory development activities. She is responsible for the development of the QAP and
final emissions report. Ms. White has assigned the work  to four Task Leaders, will inform
the ODEQ Director of the need for additional resources, and will routinely hold status
meetings with the Task Leaders  to keep them informed of the progress of the work  and
quality  concerns.  Recommendations for corrective actions will be forwarded to Ms. White
for resolution, and she will conduct internal follow-up activities until QA concerns are
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8
Q.
8
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n
f-
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O
B
    03
    VO
    ON
    2.
    o
    B
    B
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    ore
    5
    6T
                                                          Air Pollution
                                                        Control Director
                                                         Mary K. Clean
                  Senior Technical
                     Reviewers
                      Jan Blue
                      Joe Cline
                     Bill Moore
                                                       Director of
                                                         ODEO
                                                       Dave Jones
                   QA Coordinator/
                      Personnel
                      Steve Carr
                 J. Farmer, G. Marts,
                      J. Coates
                                                 Inventory Development Manager
                                                         Monica White
                                                                                               I
                                           Inventory Development Team (IDT)
                Task Leader
                Area Sources
                 Joel Gray
                                     Task Leader
                                       Biogenic
                                       Sources
                                      Syd Smith
 Task Leader
Point Sources
 Rena Sewell
                                                                                              Task Leader
                                                                                             Mobile Sources
                                                                                             Evelyn Stewart
    §

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eliminated.  She will provide technical training and meet regularly with the QA Coordinator
to discuss any trends that may be obvious from reviewing the audit findings.  QC procedures
will be revised accordingly to maintain continuous improvement of data quality.

4.2           Inventory Development Task Leaders

              The inventory development Task Leaders are Joel Gray, Syd Smith, Rena
Sewell, and Evelyn Stewart.  They will help plan and conduct the technical aspects of the
development of the inventory, supervise daily IDT activities, and help develop the emission
inventory report.  They will work closely with the IDT to help identify ineffective QC
procedures, and, if necessary, make recommendations to  the Inventory Development Manager
on revisions needed in QC procedures. Task Leaders will also monitor the status of the
work, review data calculations,  and make arrangements to have the data reviewed by senior
technical reviewers.

4.3           Inventory Development Team Members

              IDT members report to their respective Task Leaders.   They will collect data,
calculate emissions, and participate in QC reviews of work completed by other IDT
members.  Each team member is responsible for maintaining a complete data file and
documenting all of their  activities in a manner that will allow verification of the emissions
reported and source of the supporting data. Team members have been or will be trained by
the Task Leaders and the Inventory Development Manager.

4.4           Technical Reviewers

              Senior technical  reviewers for the inventory are Jan Blue, Joe Cline, and Bill
Moore.  These reviewers were  selected because of their experience collecting emission
inventory data and calculating results.  Their experience will be used to assess the technical
soundness,  accuracy, reasonableness, representativeness,  completeness, and comparability of
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the data. They will summarize the results from their reviews in written reports and inform
the Inventory Development Manager of findings that could compromise data quality.
4.5
Quality Assurance Coordinator
              The QA Coordinator, Steve Carr, helped develop this QAP. His input ensures
that adequate QA/QC procedures are incorporated into the inventory development process.
He will conduct QA training and revise the audit schedule as needed so that all critical
phases of the inventory development process are audited prior to generation of the emissions
report.   Steve will routinely attend status meetings held by the Inventory Development
Manager and use the information from these meetings to revise the audit schedule, when
appropriate, to ensure that the  audit objectives are met.

              The QA Coordinator will categorize and use the audit findings to evaluate the
effectiveness of QC measures and QA audits.  The QA/QC program will be revised  to
address trends that suggest that the technical and data quality objectives are not being
achieved.
will be to:
A summary of the QA Coordinator's responsibilities and activities follows and


•      Help develop the QAP;
•      Develop the audit checklists and audit schedule;
•      Provide QA training to inventory development and QA personnel;
•      Attend inventory development status meetings;
•      Schedule audits, conduct audits, and report findings;
•      Evaluate audit findings to determine if trends exist, and keep
       management informed of the results;
•      Follow up on recommendations for  corrective actions;
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              •      Keep the Inventory Development Manager, Environmental Quality
                    Department Director, and Air Pollution Control Director informed of
                    the audit results;
              •      Work with the Air Pollution Control Director to resolve any quality
                    concerns that cannot be resolved at the inventory management level;
                    and
              •      Maintain a file of audit findings and corresponding corrective actions.

              The QA Coordinator reports directly to the Air Pollution Control Director and
indirectly to the  managers overseeing development of the inventory.  These reporting lines
will help provide an objective approach to implementation of the QA program and reporting
of quality issues.

              QA personnel assisting the QA Coordinator may be  employees of ODEQ who
are also not actively involved in the development of the inventory, and have the technical
experience to evaluate the technical soundness of the data and  inventory development
systems. However, the  QA Coordinator is ultimately responsible for implementing the audit
program, reporting audit findings, and conducting follow-up activities.
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5.0          GENERAL QA/QC PROCEDURES

             QA/QC procedures described in this QAP were developed to help ensure data
accuracy, completeness, representativeness, and comparability.  These procedures have been
incorporated in the technical procedures, where applicable, and will be implemented by the
IDT throughout the planning, data collection, emission estimation, and reporting phases of
the inventory development program.

5.1          OC Activities

             QC procedures will be implemented by the IDT during inventory development
to meet the technical and DQOs. These activities will be conducted at critical steps in the
inventory development process where the successful outcome of inventory development could
be compromised.  These critical steps are presented below and discussed in the following
subsections of this QAP:

             •      Data gathering;
             •      Data documentation;
             •      Calculating emissions;
             •      Data checking and DARS scoring;
             •      Reporting; and
             •      Maintenance of the master file.

5.1.1         Data Gathering

             Data gathering will be conducted according to U.S. EPA-approved procedures.
The approach and supporting documents or references will be thoroughly documented and
included in the emissions report.
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             The documents identified in Table 5-1 will be used to determine the best
data-gathering approach for each emissions source type.  Some data sources identified in
these documents are also listed in Table 5-1.  All data sources will be thoroughly
documented in bound notebooks by the IDT.  The IDT will also document when required
data needed for specific source categories cannot be obtained or do not apply.  The reason
for not including a source or source category in the  inventory will be clearly explained in the
documentation.
               TABLE 5-1.  DATA COLLECTION GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS
Source Type
Point
Area
Nonroad Mobile
Onroad Mobile
Biogenic
Guidance Document
EPA-450/4-91-016
AP-42
EIIP Volume II
EPA-450/4-91-016
EIIP Volume III
EPA-450/4-81-026d
EPA-450/4-91-010
EPA-450/4-91-011
EIIP Volume IV
EPA-450/4-91-010
EIIP Volume V
Suggested Data Sources
Existing inventories, state permit files,
facility surveys, county business
directories, telephone directory
Existing inventories, example cases,
and data sources
Existing inventories, example cases,
and data source
Transportation or planning agency data
Crop acreage and land use;
meteorological data by county
5.1.2
Data Documentation
             Previous audit findings and comments from data reviewers have helped to
emphasize the need for good data documentation procedures when developing an emissions
inventory.  Therefore, data documentation requirements have been developed for the IDT to
facilitate the validation of the final  emissions results.  The documentation requirements will
help ensure that all data needed for the emissions final report are gathered, maintained, and
retained in the master file.
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              All activities conducted by the IDT on a daily basis will be documented in
bound notebooks with indices to facilitate the retrieval of recorded information.  A notebook
will be assigned to each team member and it will only be used to record information relative

to the development of the inventory.  This daily log of activities will help another IDT
member reproduce the emission results and allow an evaluation of data accuracy and

completeness.


              The following procedures are to be followed when documenting data in the

notebooks:

              •      Data will be recorded legibly and in black ink;

              •      Entries will be corrected by drawing a single line through the data and
                     writing the correct data above or below the correction (with initials,
                     date, and explanation of corrections to  allow reconstruction of the
                     work);

              •      Complete descriptions of all data sources will be included (references to
                     be included in final inventory report);

              •      Units of measurement will be provided with each data value;

              •      An explanation will be provided for emission sources that are omitted
                     from the final inventory (justification required in report);

              •      The procedures used to calculate emissions will be described and
                     example calculations will be provided;

              •      The approach used to determine completeness for each source  type will
                     be described;

              •      Documents from which emission factors  are taken will be identified
                     and referenced; and

              •      The source, agency,  group, or company providing information by
                     telephone will be identified (include telephone number and  date
                     information was provided).


              Worksheets and contact reports may also be used to maintain records  of data
sources or calculations; however, the same guidelines must be  followed when recording
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information on them. A file will be developed specifically for these forms to ensure that
they are retained and are easily located when the data are needed to calculate emissions. The
contact report form that will be used is shown in Figure 5-1.

              All worksheets, electronic spreadsheets, and notebooks will be reviewed
periodically by the inventory development task leaders to  determine whether the procedures
described above are  being followed. This review should be evidenced by a dated signature
on the notebook pages or worksheets reviewed (i.e., reviewed by	on	.)

              Examples of acceptable documentation practices for each source type are
included in the next section of this QAP.

5.1.3         Calculating Emissions

              Information  on how point, area, mobile, and biogenic emissions will be
calculated is provided in Sections 7.0 through 10.0.

5.1.4         Data  Checking and DARS Scoring

              Data checking by the IDT is used to ensure data accuracy.  Data will be
checked  at logical steps in the development of the inventory where transcription or
calculation errors are likely to be found. Data checking will also be used to assess the
technical soundness  of the  data.  QA checkpoints are depicted in Figure 2-1.

              Although different types  of data will be reviewed at each checkpoint,, the type
of review may also  vary. For example,  when a document containing information is first
received and logged in, it will first be checked to see if it was generated in the correct year
and is for the correct location. Later, as data are used in calculating emissions, checking will
include evaluations  of data accuracy, reasonableness, and completeness.
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                          CONTACT REPORT

  Date	      Originator 	
  CONTACT BY: TELEPHONE     MEETING     OTHER
   NAME, TITLE, & ORGANIZATION
   ADDRESS & TELEPHONE NUMBER
   PURPOSE OR SUBJECT (Give project number if appropriate)
  SUMMARY:
   ACTION:
                        Figure 5-1. Contact Report
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              The most logical checkpoints for each review are after data entry and
calculations are performed.  Data can be checked by another IDT member, by the Task
Leader, or a senior technical reviewer (see Figure 4-1). If errors are found during these
reviews, the person generating the data  and reviewer must agree on the corrective action to
be taken and see to it that the error is eliminated.  They must also determine the impact, if
any, that the error will have on other relevant data, and revise the affected data accordingly.

              The results from data checking will be documented to further qualify the
emissions estimates. In addition to the  DARS scores assigned, the number of data points
checked assists reviewers in evaluating  the accuracy of the completed emissions report.
Documentation of DARS scoring and data checking should include descriptions of the
rationale for scoring, the data checked,  and the dated signature of the reviewer.  Figure 5-2
presents an example area source form that will be used to document the data checked and the
findings.

5.1.5         Reporting

              The emissions inventory  report will be formatted according to the instructions
provided by the U.S. EPA.  Prior to finalizing the report, all of the actions taken in response
to the recommendations for corrective actions will be evaluated to determine whether the
report accurately reflects the corrections made. The report will be reviewed for technical
soundness, completeness, accuracy, comparability, and representativeness by senior technical
reviewers, editors, and QA  Personnel.

              It is the responsibility of the Inventory Development Manager to ensure that
the report accurately reflects the data and that the master file provides sufficient data to
verify the results reported.  A copy-ready master of the report will be retained in the master
file and made available to all project personnel.
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  CATEGORY DESCRIPTION:

  SOURCE CODE:

  INVENTORY REGIONS COVERED:

  NAME (person responsible for calculations):

  SIGNATURE (QC Review 1)	
                                DATE
  IS SECOND QC REVIEW NEEDED (YES/NO)?

  SIGNATURE (QC Review 2)	

  SIGNATURE (QA Review)	
                                DATE

                                DATE
Checklist
1. Were all emission factor sources clearly
referenced?
2. Were correct emission factors used?
3. Were sources of activity data clearly
referenced?
4. Were correct activity data used?
5. Were the correct seasonal adjustment factors
(SAFs) and activity days per week used?
6. Were all calculations documented?
7. Are calculations correct?
8. Were applicable regulations cited?
If so, were rule effectiveness (RE) and rule
penetration (RP) correctly applied?
9. Were nonreactive VOCs excluded?
QC1










QC2










QA










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Figure 5-2. Area Source Category QA/QC Checklist

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  The following problems need to be corrected (indicate whether QCI, QC2, or QA and
  sign):
                                 Figure 5-2.  (Continued)
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5.1.6         Maintenance of the Master File

              The master file is a compilation of all data gathered and produced during
development of the inventory.  It should include  sufficient supporting data to verify the
accuracy of the emissions results reported. Indexing procedures must facilitate data retrieval.
              Maintenance of the master file will begin with retention of this QAP.  All
correspondence and data received concerning development of the inventory will be filed by
source and county. References will be maintained, along with applicable data contained
within each reference.

              The master file will be maintained by one of the IDT members or an
administrative assistant.  Access to the file will be limited to the IDT and controlled so that it
is maintained in an orderly manner and is complete.  A sign-out sheet will be used and is
shown in Figure 5-3.  A log will also be used to document data receipt and retrieval.  File
identification numbers will be assigned to the data and used to facilitate retrieval.

              Copies of pertinent data will be made to provide working copies for the IDT;
however, the original documents  will remain in the master file.

5.2           QA Activities

              QA activities are distinguished from  QC activities in that they provide a more
objective assessment of data quality because QA personnel are not directly involved in the
development of the inventory.  QA activities are usually more comprehensive because they
include assessments of the effectiveness and appropriateness of the systems established by
management to control data quality. This includes  evaluations of the management and
supervision of the work.
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File Number























Check Out
Date























Initials























Check In
Date























Initials

























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Figure 5-3.  Master File Sign-Out Sheet

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              QA activities will include QA training and the conduct of a series of
independent audits to assess the effectiveness of the entire QC system and management of
inventory development activities.  These activities will be conducted by the QA Coordinator
and other adequately trained personnel who are not involved in the inventory development
process.

5.2.1          Training/Education

              Initial training sessions will be conducted to discuss the items on the audit
checklist and QA/QC requirements specified in this document.  The QA Coordinator will
conduct additional training when  audits reveal the need for more QC measures or revision of
existing procedures.

              Occurrences that may lead to additional QA training include the following:

              •      An audit reveals a lack of understanding of QA/QC requirements or the
                     need to develop additional QC measures.
              •      An audit reveals the need to provide guidance on acceptable data
                     handling procedures because data are not maintained in a manner that
                     allows easy verification of the accuracy of emission results and source
                     of the supporting data.
              •      An audit reveals unacceptable data documentation practices that lead to
                     entry errors and an inability to recreate emission results.
              •      An audit reveals that the internal data reviews do not adequately
                     control data entry and calculation errors.
              •      The Inventory Development Manager requests QA training for new
                     IDT members.

The QA Coordinator will conduct the training and maintain records of each training session.
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5.2.2          Audits

              Audits will be conducted according to the schedule presented in
Figure 2-2.  They will include assessments as the inventory development process is being
planned, during data collection, as emissions are being calculated, and when the results are
reported.  The primary goal of the audit program is to prevent quality concerns.
Opportunities to incorporate preventive measures will be included during each audit.

              Prior to announced audits, the auditor will inform the persons to be
interviewed of the date and time of the audit and data/systems to be reviewed. All of the
personnel involved in inventory activities being audited will be asked to be available to
respond to questions about their duties.  The responses will then be compared to the
requirements specified in this document and other referenced documents to determine
compliance with approved procedures.

              Questions that will be asked by the auditor and data to be evaluated during the
audits vary by source type.  The QA Coordinator will use the results of previous audits and
work with Inventory Development Manager to develop source-specific audit checklists.
Example checklists for technical systems and data audits are provided in Appendices A, B,
and C.  After developing the checklists, QA training will be held to inform the IDT of the
steps in the inventory development process that are considered to be of concern. These
meetings will be  used to increase the  team's awareness of the points in the inventory
development process that  may require more QC and managerial oversight.

              Data audits will be conducted after major data transcriptions and calculations.
The auditor will evaluate  consistency in data entry and manipulation between IDT members.
The results from the audits will be immediately shared with the data generator, Task
Leader(s), and Inventory Development Manager.  IDT members involved in the audit will be
asked to respond immediately to the findings that will be informally discussed after the audit.
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              In addition to data quality audits, systems audits will be conducted to
determine whether the procedures used are effective to collect data, document inventory
development activities, and maintain the data.  Systems audits will also include assessments
of the supervision of the work and review of the data by the senior technical reviewers.
These systems audits are used to evaluate the need to revise or develop additional procedures.

              As the  audits are conducted, the auditors will also assess how well the IDT is
meeting the DQOs. Audit  findings that reveal any compromises in data integrity or identify
something that interferes with the achievement of these objectives will be brought
immediately to the attention of the Task Leader and Inventory Development Manager.
Solutions will be found for the problems identified, and the actions taken will be monitored
until the quality  issues are resolved.

5.2.3          Reporting Audit  Findings

              Audit findings will be documented on the audit checklist. The audit checklist
and notes will be used to summarize the preliminary findings for the IDT, Task Leaders, and
Inventory Development Manager after the audit.  The checklist and notes will also be used to
develop the audit report, which will be included in the QA documentation section in the
inventory report.

              The audit report will describe each deviation from approved procedures or
finding that could compromise the successful outcome of the inventory.  Documentation of
each finding will include a description of the action or data reviewed that  led to the quality
concern and recommendation for corrective action.

              The audit report will at least include the following information:

              •       Name of auditor, Inventory Development Manager, and IDT members
                     audited;
              •       Audit date;
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              •     Audit type;
              •     Audit objectives;
              •     Audit findings; and
              •     Recommendations for corrective actions.

              Audit reports will be distributed within two weeks of the conduct of each audit
to the persons interviewed, Task Leaders,  and Inventory Development Manager.  A summary
of the types of quality concerns found will be periodically forwarded to the ODEQ Director
to keep him informed of the quality issues found and actions being taken to resolve them.
Audit reports will be retained  in a QA file and used to conduct subsequent audits and plan
follow-up activities.
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6.0           CORRECTIVE ACTION MECHANISMS

              Recommendations for corrective actions are made as quality concerns are
identified.  Recommendations  for corrective actions will be formally presented in the audit
reports. The corrective action form included as Figure 2-3 will be used to document the
findings and actions implemented in response to  each recommendation for corrective action.
Original forms will be retained in the audit file, and copies will be distributed to the Task
Leaders and the Inventory Development Manager.  The information on the corrective action
forms will be used by the auditor to monitor the types of problems found and the phases  of
the inventory development process that may need additional QC to eliminate recurring quality
concerns.

              The urgency of the responses is determined by the category of the finding.
The categories are:

              Priority 1:    Potential for major  revisions  needed;

              Priority 2:    Potential for failure to achieve DQOs; and

              Priority 3:    Suggested improvements.

Priority 1 and 2 findings will  be immediately brought to the attention of upper management
and the planned implementation dates for the corrective actions will be as soon as possible
after the audit.  The Task Leader and Inventory Development Manager will meet routinely
with the QA Coordinator to discuss the actions taken in response to the recommendations for
corrective actions for Priority  1 and 2 findings until the quality concerns  are resolved.  The
planned implementation date for Priority 3 findings may be later than the dates proposed for
implementing actions taken in response to Priority 1 and 2 findings.

              Follow-up activities will be conducted as frequently as required by the Task
Leader and auditors to determine whether the recommended actions are taken.  Each effort to
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assess the implementation of the corrective action will be documented and maintained by the
QA Coordinator in an audit file established for these records.

              Follow-up activities could include the conduct of additional audits or informal
assessments of the data or system of concern.  The type of reevaluation will be determined
by considering the impact that the quality  concern could have on the  technical and DQOs.
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7.0          POINT SOURCE INVENTORY PREPARATION AND QA/QC
             ACTIVITIES
              For the purposes of this emissions inventory, point sources are defined as
stationary, commercial, government, and industrial operations that emit more than 10 tpy of
VOCs or 100 tpy or more of NOX or CO.  Point source data will be collected from two basic
sources:

              •     The permitted sources database, and
              •     The small point sources database.

The latter was developed initially in 1992 by ODEQ for preparing the 1990 Base Year
Inventory.  It  is updated every three years. The last update was completed in 1995 (the 1993
Periodic Inventory). Previous inventories included all sources not included in the permitted
sources database.

              The permitted sources database is maintained by ODEQ's Permits Branch.  All
facilities that have been issued permits are required  to submit a comprehensive annual
inventory that includes emissions from permitted as well  as insignificant sources.  However,
exempt sources (e.g., wastewater treatment, housekeeping activities, on-site mobile sources)1
are not included; exempt emission sources will  be covered in the  1996 inventory as area,
nonroad, or onroad mobile sources. The Permits Branch conducts a review of each facility
inventory received, including checking for completeness,  verifying emission factors,
performing sample calculations of emissions from larger  sources,  and performing
reasonableness checks of emissions and throughput  values.  Each  facility is asked to verify
questionable data to correct any errors.  Inspectors within the Permits  Branch continually
check for new businesses and industries, as well as  ones  that have been closed recently.
Their database, therefore, accurately reflects the 1996 operations of each permitted facility.
    1   The Permits Branch is currently evaluating the feasibility of requiring that facilities
       include these sources in their annual inventories.
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              ODEQ has found that this database is generally adequately reviewed for
completeness, accuracy, and reasonableness. However, additional reviews will be conducted
before it is used in the ozone nonattainment point source inventory.

              •      Records from ODEQ's Enforcement Branch will be reviewed to
                     determine if facility inspections have identified any emission estimation
                     inconsistencies; and
              •      The database will be reviewed to determine if any emission source data
                     are missing or out-of-date.

              The data for each facility will be printed (Facility Report 1) and sent to the
contact listed in the database.  The facility contact will be given 60 days to review the data,
make any needed updates, and return the Facility Report to ODEQ. Follow-up calls will be
made to resolve any issues found in the additional reviews described above.

              After 90 days, the  list of facilities that have not responded to the request  for
information will be prioritized by size.  Calls will be made to as many facilities as possible
to determine why the forms were not returned.  Each call will be documented using the
Contact Report form (Figure 5-1).

              A similar procedure will be followed for the small point sources database. To
identify any new sources that need to be added, the following will be checked:

              •      Construction permit records for  1993 to 1996 (for commercial or
                     industrial properties);
              •      State employment data for 1993 to 1996; and
              •      Dun & Bradstreet and other listings of businesses in the Ozoneville
                     MSA.

              The lists generated from follow-up on the two databases will then be cross-
checked with the existing list of unpermitted facilities.  Any new source with a
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commercial or industrial Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) Code will be sent an initial
survey (Figure 7-1).2  The existing sources will be sent a copy of their current data (Facility
Report 1) and asked to update the report with new information.  The same procedures
described above for follow-up will be used.

             Data for new sources or updates to existing sources will be entered into the
Ozoneville Emissions Modeling System (OEMS). OEMS is an EllP-compatible data system.
For new sources, OEMS data entry forms will be generated by the IDT. Data will be
transferred from the reports or forms sent by the facilities to OEMS data entry forms.  Each
of these  forms will be reviewed by the IDT member who generated  them and 100 percent of
the data  elements will be checked.  Then, 20 percent of the data elements will be checked by
another IDT member.  If errors are found, they will be corrected and a second review will be
made. This process will be repeated until the data forms are verified to be 100 percent
correct.  Forms with completed and verified data will then be sent to ODEQ's Data
Management Branch for entry into OEMS.

              ODEQ aspires to attain an error-free database; however, it will not be possible
to perform checks on 100 percent of all the data elements.  Furthermore, data updates occur
every year in the Permits Branch database, introducing the possibility of new errors.
       Figure 7-1 presents an example survey form for stationary combustion sources only.
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FORM EI-1 REPORTING YEAR 1996
ODEQ EMISSION INVENTORY QUESTIONNAIRE
STATIONARY COMBUSTION SOURCES
Please complete this form with data representing operations for the calendar year listed above.
BUSINESS NAME
I
I
(
1

BUSINESS ADDRESS
IEPORTED BY
DDEO FACILITY NUMBER DATE
fELEPHONE FAX
Company ID Number
ODEQ Source No. (i.e., B001)
Type of Fuel Used
Coal, tons/year
Ash, % (as fired)
Oil (indicate type), gal/yr
Fuel Sulfur Content, % (as fired)
Gas, Million cubic ft/yr (please report MMCF)*
Other Fuel (indicate), units/yr
Fuel Heat Value, Btu/unit (as fired)
Last Test Date
% Annual Throughput Each Quarter:
January - March
April - June
July - September
October - December
Operating Schedule:
Hours/Day
Days/Week
Weeks/Year (or Hours/Year)
Hours Operated Without Control Equipment













































































* Natural gas usage should be reported in million cubic feet (MMCF). The unit MCF is thousand
CF. If billed in units other than MMCF, usage may be reported in those units provided the new
units are clearly noted.
COMMENTS:
      Figure 7-1.  Point Source Survey Form For Stationary Combustion Sources
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8.0          AREA SOURCE INVENTORY PREPARATION AND QA/QC
             ACTIVITIES
             Based on a review of the 1993 periodic inventory, a checklist of area sources

has been prepared, evaluated, and prioritized for inclusion in the 1996 ozone nonattainment

area SIP inventory.  Source categories have been ranked by VOC followed by NOX emissions

to identify the most significant area source categories for inclusion in the inventory.  The
area sources have been generally grouped from largest to smallest, with priority given to the
larger sources.  U.S. EPA and EIIP guidance, as well as inventories from two nearby states,

were also reviewed to identify sources excluded from the 1993 periodic inventory. Emission

estimates will also be developed for 1993 for these two categories for comparability. Two

categories were added as a result of this analysis:  slash burning and industrial wastewater

treatment.  Emission estimates will also be developed for 1993 for these two categories for

comparability.  Two source categories were also eliminated from the 1996  inventory: open
burning and on-site incineration.  The reasons for excluding these sources will be
documented in the inventory report.  The list of area sources to be included in the 1996

periodic inventory is summarized in Table 8-1.


             Data will be collected by the IDT in the following formats:

             (1)    Mail and phone surveys.  For a limited number of area source
                    categories, data will be collected by means of survey forms mailed to
                    facilities, or used as phone questionnaires by ODEQ personnel.

              (2)    Reports. Examples are population data from the U.S. Census Bureau,
                    and energy use data from the U.S. Department of Energy and the
                    Ozoneville Energy Office.

              (3)    Letters  and memoranda.  In many cases,  information will be sent in
                    letters or memoranda, or as  database hard-copy reports with a
                    transmittal letter.

              (4)    By phone or facsimile.  Some information will be received over the
                    phone and recorded on telephone contact log sheets; other information
                    will consist of facsimiles showing hand calculations or data inputs.
                    The information received in this manner  is likely to come from
                    agencies in ODEQ, other state and local  agencies, and federal agencies.
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  TABLE 8-1.  AREA SOURCES TO INCLUDE IN 1996 INVENTORY AND PROPOSED
                       EMISSION ESTIMATION METHOD
Category
Architectural surface
coating
Asphalt paving
Commercial bakeries
Consumer/commercial
solvent use
Dry cleaning
Gasoline distribution
Graphic arts
Industrial surface
coating
Industrial wastewater
treatment
Landfills
Pesticide application
Slash burning
Small stationary source
fossil fuel combustion
(residential,
commercial, and
industrial)
Solvent cleaning
Structure fires
o Estimation Method
Use results of survey conducted in 1993. Update by resurveying five largest
distributors.
Use U.S. EPA-recommended emission factor/gallon paving material. Obtain
paving data from the state Department of Transportation.
Use U.S. EPA-recommended production-based emission factor. Obtain production
data from U.S. Census Bureau.
Use preferred method in EHP Volume III, Chapter 5 (EIIP, 1996). Obtain
population data from U.S. Census Bureau.
Use preferred method in EIIP Volume III, Chapter 4 (EIIP, 1996).
Use preferred method in EIIP Volume III, Chapter 11 (EIIP, 1996). Use
MOBILE model to calculate vehicle refueling emission factors (U.S. EPA, 1996a).
Information on gasoline dispensing outlets is available from the ODEQ.
Use alternative method 1 in EIIP Volume III, Chapter 7 (EIIP, 1996). Obtain
population data from U.S. Census Bureau.
Conduct survey of facilities with SIC Codes identified by U.S. EPA in the
Procedures document as industrial surface coating facilities (U.S. EPA, 1991a).
Survey using a two-stage approach: (1) determine proportion of facilities with
surface coating activity, and (2) obtain solvent consumption/disposal data from
representative sample of applicable sources.
Use Surface Impoundment Modeling System (SIMS) emission estimation model
(U.S. EPA, 1990).
Use U.S. EPA's Landfill Air Emission Estimation Model (U.S. EPA, 1996b).
Obtain activity data from ODEQ's Department of Solid Waste.
Use alternative method 1 in EIIP Volume III, Chapter 9 (EIIP, 1996).
Use AP-42 emission factors (U.S. EPA, 1995). Obtain activity data from the state
Department of Forestry.
Use AP-42 emission factors (U.S. EPA, 1995). Obtain activity data from state
Energy Office and Energy Information Agency. Apportion fuel consumption data
to the county level based on residential population and employment (from U.S.
Census Bureau data).
Use preferred method in EIIP Volume III, Chapter 6 (EIIP, 1996).
Use U.S. EPA-recommended emission factors from Procedures document
(U.S. EPA, 1991a). Obtain activity data from Ozoneville Fire Marshal.
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              All data will be retrieved from the appropriate agencies or libraries.  Copies of
all data, including paper and electronic formats, will be logged in, assigned a file
identification number, and filed in the project file.  Data sources will be clearly documented
in the database and on worksheets.

              The quality and completeness of data will be ensured by using the worksheets
and completing the QA/QC  checklist shown as Figure 5-2.  Alternative sources of data will
be evaluated; the basis for choosing one data source over another will be clearly documented.
QA/QC procedures (if known) used by the agencies or individuals supplying the data will
also be documented.

              Emissions calculations will require the acquisition of data from  a variety of
different sources.  Preferred data sources are shown in Table 8-1.  Any deviations from the
methods or data sources shown will be documented and explained.  In addition, because
improvements will be made to the emission estimates based on EIIP guidance, 1993 estimates
will be prepared for any source categories for which revised emission estimation methods are
used.  The inventory report  will also include a discussion of other area source categories for
which improved estimation methods are needed.

              Calculations will be performed on  spreadsheets as much as possible.  If
handwritten calculations are necessary, they will be recorded and maintained in the project
file.  Emissions factors for most sources are available from EPA guidance documents; the
EIIP area source volume will be the primary reference.  Values for seasonal adjustment
factors (SAFs) and activity days per week were developed  for the 1993 periodic inventory.
These values will be verified for applicability before use in this inventory.  Emissions will be
adjusted (if needed) to exclude nonreactive VOCs.  Federal and state regulations will be
reviewed to determine which area source categories are affected, particularly those for which
rules were promulgated between 1993 and 1996.  Rule penetration (RP) and rule
effectiveness (RE) adjustments to the emissions will be made where  appropriate.
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              Care will taken to avoid double-counting of emissions. The area source
emissions will be adjusted after completion of the point source inventory to account for point
source emissions.

              All  area source calculations will be reviewed as part of the QC program by the
inventory developer; 10 percent will be reviewed by another IDT member.  The person doing
the QC will check data accuracy and the reasonableness of assumptions, and review the
calculations.  In general, the following considerations will be used to assess the accuracy of
all calculations:

              •      Are the  equations used for each method or procedure consistent?
              •      Are assumptions and engineering judgments documented and reviewed?

              Spreadsheet audit functions will be used to verify that spreadsheet functions
were used correctly.

              If revisions are needed, the person who did the calculations is responsible for
making them. If a second QC review is needed, it will be performed.  Revisions to the
computer files will be indicated on the "DATA LOG SHEET" and current copies of all
computer files will be kept in the project file (Figure 8-1).

              After emissions are calculated, they will be reviewed by the Task Leader.
Outliers will be checked to ensure that the data, data processing,  and calculations used are
correct and acceptable.  It should be noted that simply because the estimate is an outlier, i.e.,
it does not fall within the expected range, this does not necessarily denote an error.  Such
outliers will be examined, but additional time will be taken to assess outliers that occur in
categories that have large emissions and those that differ greatly from the expected range.  If
an outlier is identified and the emission methodology and calculations are reasonable, the
data will be flagged and appropriate EPA personnel will be contacted for guidance.
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                                DATA LOG SHEET
   SOURCE:
   SOURCE CODE:
   NAME (Person responsible for calculations):
Item
Calculations
QC Review (1)
Revisions
QC Review (2)
Data coded for OEMS
Data entered in OEMS
OEMS data QA
Date
Completed







Name of Person
Responsible







                                   Page 1 of 2
                      Figure 8-1.  Area Source Data Log Sheet
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                               DATA LOG SHEET

  AREA SOURCE CATEGORY:

  SOURCE CODE:

  NAME (Person responsible for calculations):

  Spreadsheet file names (copy of current versions should be kept in project file):
              File Name
Date of
Current
Version
Contents
                                    Page 2 of 2
                              Figure 8-1.  Continued
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              When all QC reviews are complete and all necessary revisions have been
made, the data will be entered into OEMS.  If the data must be hand entered, assistance will
be provided by the person who calculated the estimates.  This person will also help QC the
data after OEMS entry. The data entry personnel are responsible for completing the OEMS-
related item in the table on the "DATA LOG SHEET."
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9.0          ON- AND NONROAD MOBILE SOURCE INVENTORY
             PREPARATION AND QA/QC ACTIVITIES
9.1          Onroad Mobile Sources

             Onroad mobile emissions will be estimated using emission factors generated
from the U.S EPA's MOBILE program and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data generated
primarily from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS).  The Ozoneville
nonattainment area encompasses the Federal Aid Urbanized Area (FAUA) and extends
beyond it.  Therefore, in addition to using Ozoneville FAUA HPMS data, HPMS data
representing the rural portion of the state will be factored in to account for the portion of the
nonattainment area outside of the Ozoneville FAUA.  Local-road VMT within the
nonattainment area will be calculated from countywide local road VMT  estimates and added
to HPMS-derived VMT.

             Most of the resources expended in this portion of the inventory will be spent
developing and reviewing (QC level) the data inputs for the MOBILE model, checking the
reasonableness of the VMT estimates, and reviewing the final emission estimates.  Some
specific input data needed  include vehicle registration and vehicle type distributions, fuel
characteristics, vehicle operating conditions, and ambient temperatures.  Data on these and
other input data needed will be obtained primarily from the U.S. EPA's Office of Mobile
Sources, the Ozoneville Department of Transportation, and the Ozoneville Department of
Motor  Vehicles.

             QC procedures that will be implemented to ensure that  the onroad mobile
source inventory is of high quality will  include data verification checks, comparison of model
input data with original data, and comparison of overall emissions estimates  with estimates
developed for similar urban areas.

             Developing  an onroad mobile sources emission inventory requires data from a
number of diverse organizations.  These groups do not normally interact with one another, so
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to help ensure the production of a high-quality onroad motor vehicle inventory, a working

group of representatives from each organization will be formed.  This group will identify the

type and source of the needed data, and coordinate the data acquisition process.  The group
members and the primary data each will contribute will be:


              •      Mr. Dale Earnhart, Ozoneville Association of Governments. The
                    Association of Governments will have primary responsibility for
                    calculation of the onroad vehicle emissions, and will also contribute
                    data developed from the regional transportation model.  Mr. Earnhart
                    will chair the working group.

              •      Ms. Shirley Muldowney, Ozoneville Department of Transportation.
                    The Department of Transportation will contribute HPMS data and
                    countywide VMT estimates from local roads.

              •      Mr. Al Unser, Ozoneville Department of Motor Vehicles. The
                    Department of Motor Vehicles will contribute vehicle registration
                    distribution data.

              •      Mr. A.J. Foyt, ODEQ.  ODEQ will contribute input data for the
                    MOBILE model, including  vehicle inspection and maintenance
                    parameters and fuel vapor pressure data.

              •      Mr. Michael Andretti, ODEQ.  Mr. Andretti will provide independent
                    review of the data flow and calculations.


              The VMT data needed to cover the nonattainment area are:


              •      HPMS data for the Ozoneville FAUA, which includes Ozoneville as
                    well as  Counties A, B, C, and D.

              •      HPMS data for the portion  of the Ozoneville nonattainment area in
                    Counties A and B that is outside of the Ozoneville FAUA; and

              •      Local-road VMT for urban  and rural roads for the nonattainment area.


              HPMS data for the  Ozoneville FAUA will be used in its entirety, because all

of the FAUA is contained in the nonattainment area.  For the portions of Counties A and B

that are outside of the Ozoneville FAUA, HPMS  data representing samples from rural roads

in the state will be factored in based on the ratio  of road mileage (by functional class) within

the  affected area versus the rural statewide total.

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              Local-road VMT will be estimated from existing countywide VMT estimates

generated by the Ozoneville Department of Transportation.  For those areas of Counties A

and B that are only partially contained with the Ozoneville nonattainment area, local-road

VMT will be estimated by factoring the countywide total by the ratio of local-road mileage

within the nonattainment area to the total local-road mileage in the county.  Note that these

local-road VMT represent annual averages and must be factored in to correctly represent

seasonal daily VMT.  To achieve consistency with the treatment of the HPMS data, SAFs

used in the Ozoneville FAUA to factor collector road VMT will be used to adjust the local-

road VMT.


              Specific QC measures to be taken to check the accuracy and reasonableness of

the VMT estimates will  include, at a minimum:


              •      Independent review of all calculations to verify application of the ratio
                     techniques, use of correct expansion factors, and correct transferral of
                     VMT input and output data;

              •      Comparison of the distribution of nonattainment area VMT by
                     functional class to the statewide totals published in Highway Statistics
                     (U.S. DOT) for 1996;

              •      Calculation of ratios of VMT on a per capita basis, per gallon of fuel
                     used (by vehicle  type after applying VMT ratios), and per road mile
                     (by functional class).   These  ratios will be compared for reasonableness
                     to  similar ratios calculated for the state and other similar states from
                     Highway Statistics; and

              •      Verification of the inclusion of all input HPMS and Ozoneville
                     Department of Transportation local-road VMT data.


              If an additional check is deemed necessary, a real-time simulation using one of

the available vehicular flow models will be performed.  This additional check will be

performed if it appears that HPMS data have significantly underestimated truck VMT (and
overestimated automobile VMT).
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             Emission factors will be generated using the MOBILE model from EPA.

Inputs to the model will include a number of region-specific parameters as well as some
national defaults.  Region-specific parameters will include:


             •      Model year vehicle registrations  distributions by vehicle class;

             •      Diesel sales fractions by model year;

             •      Statewide VMT distributions by  vehicle class;

             •      Trip length distributions;

             •      Vehicle inspection and maintenance and antitampering program
                    parameters;

             •      Vehicle speeds by functional class;

             •      Vehicle operating modes;

             •      Daily minimum and maximum temperatures; and

             •      Fuel characteristics including vapor pressure and oxygenate content.


MOBILE defaults of tampering rates and mileage accumulation rates will be used.


             One of the critical areas of QC at this stage is to ensure the correct entry of
data into the MOBILE model.  The required input files are strictly formatted, but not
amenable to easy interpretation.  This raises the possibility of errors in the inputs going
undetected. Therefore, two primary methods will be used to QC the use of the appropriate

data as MOBILE inputs:

              •      Independent review of MOBILE inputs to ensure correct entry into the
                     model, utilizing the MOBILE Input Data Analysis System (MIDAS) to
                     provide a structure for checking the model inputs.  MIDAS formats the
                     model inputs for easier review, and performs additional QA to
                     determine if the model inputs conform to specifications for the
                     inventory type.

              •      Independent review of MOBILE model output files to determine if the
                     model echoes the correct input parameters.
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             Once emissions have been calculated, a number of QC measures will be

implemented to check the accuracy of the calculations and the reasonableness of the results.
The planned QC measures will include,  at a minimum:

             •      Independent review of the calculations, including review of data
                    transfer from the MOBILE results to the calculation database, checking
                    a sample of the calculations by hand for errors in the process, and
                    review of the data transfer from the calculation database to  the
                    summary formats.

             •      Comparison of the results versus other independent variables to check
                    for abnormalities in the calculations. These will include checks to:

                           Summarize emissions by pollutant on a per capita basis for each
                           county;

                           Summarize emissions by pollutant versus VMT for each county.
                           This provides  a back-calculation of an overall emission factor
                           that can be compared to separate MOBILE runs using average
                           speeds and daily minimum and maximum temperatures, to check
                           for unusual results.

                           Summarize emissions by pollutant and road functional class;

                           Compare the per capita, per VMT, and road functional class
                           results to other inventories for the same year; and

                           Compare the percentage contribution by pollutant  of onroad
                           mobile emissions to the overall inventory to other inventories
                           for the same year.

Variation of the results from the other inventories do not automatically indicate errors, but
provide reasons to perform additional QC of the results.
9.2           Nonroad Mobile Sources


              The U.S. EPA hired Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., to update the

nonroad equipment category inventories for 33 ozone nonattainment areas in the United

States. Although the Ozoneville nonattainment area is not one of the 33, the U.S. EPA

concluded that the Washington, DC-Maryland-Virginia Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)


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is similar in climate and economic conditions to Ozoneville.  Therefore, a ratio of the
populations of the two areas will be used in combination with the Washington, DC-
Maryland-Virginia MSA inventory to develop the nonroad emissions estimates in the
Ozoneville inventory.

             There are three distinct U.S. EPA inventories that can be used to extrapolate
nonroad emissions to the Ozoneville nonattainment area:

                           •      Inventory A
                           •      Inventory B
                           •      (A+B)/2

The average of Inventories A and B will be used for nonroad mobile sources in Ozoneville
based on guidance provided by the U.S. EPA.

             QC procedures for the nonroad mobile source emissions estimates will consist
of:

             •     Verification by the Task Leader and senior peer reviewers that the
                    Washington, DC-Maryland-Virginia MSA is appropriate as a surrogate
                    for Ozoneville;
             •      100 percent QC of the spreadsheets provided by the U.S. EPA; and
              •     QC  level reviews of data input (to identify transcription errors),
                    calculations, and data conversions.

             In assessing the applicability of the Washington, DC-Maryland-Virginia MSA
inventory for Ozoneville,  an overall comparison of the two regions and a detailed
examination of key sources will be conducted. In the overall assessment, it will be
determined if each of the  sources present in the Washington, DC-Maryland-Virginia MSA
inventory is also present in Ozoneville, or if potentially significant activities in Ozoneville are
not present in the Washington, DC-Maryland-Virginia MSA inventory.  For those sources
that should be added to the Ozoneville inventory,  a rough estimate of emissions will be made
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based on data in the U.S. EPA inventories for more applicable regions. This rough estimate
will be used to  guide the level of effort employed to develop a more refined estimate.

             In the detailed assessment, the key source types in the Washington, DC-
Maryland-Virginia MSA inventory will be identified with the largest contribution of each
pollutant. Additional attention will then focus on developing independent assessments of
these sources for comparison purposes. For example, the key sources that contribute more
than 10 percent of the total offroad emissions for either VOC  or NOX are:

             •     Construction equipment;
             •     Airport service equipment; and
             •     Lawn and garden equipment.

             Developing emission estimates for these sources based on population ratios
may or may not result in reasonable estimates.  For example, for construction equipment,
data will be collected on the number of permitted construction projects, and the Washington,
DC-Maryland-Virginia MSA and  Ozoneville data will be compared. Average emissions by
equipment category will be compared between the two regions.  If there is a difference
between the two, the emissions estimates developed based on the permit data will be used
provided it is complete.
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10.0         BIOGENIC SOURCE INVENTORY PREPARATION AND QA/QC
             ACTIVITIES
             There are three computer models that can be used to estimate biogenic
emissions:
             •      Biogenic Emission Inventory System-2 (BEIS-2);
             •      The personal computer (PC) version of BEIS, PC-BEIS2.2; and
             •      Biogenic Model for Emissions (BIOME).

             The BEIS models, BEIS-2 and PC-BEIS2.2, have default land use files for all
counties in the U.S. (except those in Alaska and Hawaii). An alternative approach to using
these models is to collect local information to substitute for model defaults.  In the initial
inventory planning phase, each of these methods was reviewed.  On the basis of these
reviews, it was determined  that the preferred method for estimating biogenic emissions is
with the U.S. EPA's BEIS-2 computer model. BEIS-2 is the most scientifically advanced
model  for estimating biogenic ozone precursor emissions.

             BEIS-2 estimates VOC emissions for forested areas by multiplying the foliar
density for each forest type by the appropriate emission factors.  The  emission rates are then
adjusted for specific environmental conditions using user-supplied temperature and solar
energy change data and output files of the Urban Airshed Model (UAM) temperature
preprocessor.  Similar calculations are used to estimate emissions from nonforested areas.

             Meteorological data will be obtained from the National Weather Service and
the U.S. EPA.  U.S. EPA-supplied land  use and biomass data sets provided  with the model
will be used.

             In reviewing the estimates developed with BEIS-2, priority will be given to
verifying the modeling days selected. In addition, the selection of the meteorological station
will be reviewed.  Typically the nearest  station is  recommended and used, but elevation and
topography differences must also be considered in order to determine if there is  a more
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suitable station other than the closest.  The default land use data in BEIS-2 will be evaluated
to determine if they are representative of base year data, reality checks will be performed on
genus/land use proportions, and the Federal Information Procedures System (FIPS) code will
be checked to verify that the correct county data were used.
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11.0         DATA REPORTING

             Reporting will be accomplished by submittal to the U.S. EPA of written
documentation and emissions summaries. The procedures, assumptions, sample calculations,
and summary tables of emissions will be thoroughly documented in the ozone inventory
report.

             The report will include summary tables, raw listings of equipment, activity
levels and emissions from individual sources, and a QA documentation section.  A detailed
inventory report allows comparison of baseline inventories from one area to another, the
evaluation of the impact of control strategies, and facilitates updates to the  inventory and
development of projection inventories.

             In addition to EIIP guidance, the 1992 U.S. EPA report Example
Documentation  Report for 1990 Base Year Ozone and Carbon Monoxide State
Implementation Plan Emission Inventories will be followed (U.S.  EPA, 1992a).  These
documents provide guidance for presenting and documenting SIP emissions inventories, and
contain examples of how to present and verify inventory development efforts.  The QA
documentation section of the emissions inventory report will provide enough detail so that
the inventory development described in the report can be compared to the information
provided in this QAP.  Any discrepancies will be identified and explained.

             The QA documentation section of the inventory report will also include the
audit report.  As discussed previously, the audit report will describe each deviation from
approved procedures or findings that could compromise the successful outcome of the
inventory. Documentation of each finding will include a description of the action or data
reviewed that led to the quality concern, along with a recommendation for corrective action.
The QA  documentation section of the inventory report will then discuss how the
recommended corrective actions were implemented.
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12.0         REFERENCES


Birth, T.L.  1995 User's Guide to the Personal Computer Version of the Biogenic Emissions
Inventory System (PCBEIS2.2).  Prepared for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP).  1996. Volumes II-VI.  Prepared by the
State and Territorial Air Pollution Program Administrators and the Association of Local Air
Pollution Control Officials (STAPPA/ALAPCO).

Federal Highway Administration.  Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). U.S.
Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C.

Highway Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration,
Washington, D.C.  Annual Publication.

U.S. EPA, 1996a.  Mobile Source Emission Factor Model (MOBILE).  Office of Mobile
Source Air Pollution Control, Ann Arbor, Michigan.

U.S. EPA, 1996b.  Landfill Air Emissions Estimation Model (LAEEM).  Office of Research
and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

U.S. EPA, 1995.  Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, 5th Edition and
Supplements, AP-42, Office of Air Quality Planning  and Standards, Research Triangle Park,
North Carolina.

U.S. EPA, 1993.  User's Guide for the Urban Airshed Model, Volume IV: User's Manual
for the Emissions  Preprocessor System 2.0, Part A: Core FORTRAN System, EPA-450/4-90-
007D(R).  Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, North
Carolina.

U.S. EPA, 1992a.  Example Documentation Report for 1990 Base Year Ozone and Carbon
Monoxide State Implementation Plan Emission Inventories.  EPA-450/4-92-007.  Office of
Air Quality Planning and  Standards, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

U.S. EPA, 1992b.  Procedures for Emission Inventory Preparation, Volume IV:   Mobile
Sources, EPA-450/4-81-026d.  (Revised). Office of Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, Michigan.

U.S. EPA, 1991 a.  Procedures for the Preparation of Emission Inventories for Carbon
Monoxide and Precursors  of Ozone, Volume I: General Guidance for Stationary Sources,
EPA-450/4-91-016.  Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,  Research Triangle Park,
North Carolina.

U.S. EPA, 1991b.  Emission Inventory Requirements  for Ozone State Implementation Plans,
EPA-450/4-91-010.  Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,  Research Triangle Park,
North Carolina.

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U.S. EPA, 1991c.  Emission Inventory Requirements for Carbon Monoxide State
Implementation Plans, EPA-450/4-91-011.  Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

U.S. EPA, 1991d.  Nonroad Engine and Vehicle Emission Study Report. EPA-21A-2001.
Office of Mobile Sources, Ann Arbor, Michigan.

U.S. EPA, 1991e.  Procedures for the Preparation of Emission Inventories for Carbon
Monoxide and Precursors of Ozone, Volume II:  Emission Inventory Requirements for
Photochemical Air Quality Simulation Models, EPA-450/4-91-014.  Research Triangle Park,
North Carolina.

U.S. EPA, 1990.  Surface Impoundment Modeling System (SIMS) User's Manual.
EPA-45 0/4-90-019a.  Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park,
North Carolina.

U.S. EPA, 1988.  Guidance for the Preparation of Quality Assurance Plans for O3/CO SIP
Emission Inventories, EPA-450/4-88-023.  Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
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                                    APPENDIX A

                  QUALITY ASSURANCE INVENTORY CHECKLIST
Auditor
Date
Personnel Interviewed
This audit checklist is to be used to document the findings from the audit of activities and
data associated with the Ozoneville emissions inventory. Use applicable parts of the checklist
to identify the quality concerns associated with each task.  Document the results and use
them to generate the audit report.

I.      MANAGEMENT  OF THE WORK

       A.    Is the QAP available to the personnel audited?                          Y/N

       B.    Are the procedures applicable to their work
             understood and followed?                                             Y/N

       C.    Are the procedures adequate for the desired
             outcome of the work performed?                                      Y/N

       D.    Are meetings held routinely to discuss the progress of
             the work and any quality problems that were found?                     Y/N

       E.    Are the personnel adequately trained to perform
             the duties assigned?                                                  Y/N

       F.    Are the resources required to perform the duties
             assigned available and adequate to achieve the
             objective of the work?                                                Y/N

       G.    Is the work on schedule?                                             Y/N
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II.     DATA MAINTENANCE AND COLLECTION

       A.    Are the data used for the inventory coded to
             facilitate tracking?                                                     Y/N

       B.    Are the data organized to facilitate retrievals?                            Y/N

       C.    Does the data file include of all of the data
             required to estimate the emissions from a given
             source?  (Check about 4-5 sources)                                      Y/N

       D.    Are the data in a place where access is
             controlled and limited?                                                 Y/N

       E.    Are the data copied when requests are made
             for retrievals?                                                          Y/N

       F.    If originals are released to inventory development
             personnel, is the location of the original data
             documented in  the data tracking database?                               Y/N

       G.    Is the data tracking  database operational and used
             to track the receipt and distribution of the data?                          Y/N

       H.    Are the state permit applications and supporting
             data completed in a manner that will not lead to
             misinterpretation of the data?  (Check for obscuring
             of data when making corrections, insufficient data to
             discern the identity and level of emissions of a given
             pollutant, unclear labels on attachments, etc.)                            Y/N

       I.    Are the data documented in black ink so that
             reproductions will include all of the data recorded
             on the data forms?                                                     Y/N

       J.     Are the data request forms complete? If not, what is
              done to acquire the  missing data?                                       Y/N
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III.    DATA EVALUATION

       A.     What steps were taken to ensure that the data collected are complete?
       B.     What steps were taken to evaluate the accuracy, completeness,
              comparability, and representativeness of the data?
       C.     What procedures were followed to eliminate double counting of sources
              or points within a source?
       D.     How were sources below the cutoff point handled?
       E.     Were task activities prioritized to provide emissions data about the
              highest emitters first?                                                  Y/N
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      F.     Were discrepancies found in the data? If yes, what were they and how
             were they eliminated?                                                 Y/N
      G.     Were calculations reviewed by another IDT member for technical
             soundness and accuracy?                                              Y/N

             Were results documented?                                             Y/N
      H.     Were evaluated data reviewed by a senior technical reviewer prior to
             entering it into the emissions database?                                  Y/N

             Were results from the data reviews documented and corrective actions
             implemented as requested?                                             Y/N

             If corrections were made,  will the corrections affect other emissions
             data?                                                                 Y/N

             How was the impact of the erroneous data evaluated?
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       I.     Were the data validation procedures and activities adequately
             documented in the bound project notebook assigned to the persons
             evaluating the data?                                                   Y/N

             If no, describe the problems found.
IV.    EMISSIONS DATABASE DEVELOPMENT

       A.     Were the data validated prior to being entered into the database?          Y/N

       B.     Were the data presented to the entry personnel recorded in a manner
              that facilitated entry into the database?                                  Y/N

       C.     Was all of the information required to be entered in the database
              included on the  data form?                                             Y/N

       D.     If data are missing from data request forms, how are data gaps
              handled?
       E.     Were results in the units to be reported?  If not, were calculations
              performed manually or electronically?                                   Y/N
       F.     Were the database activities documented in the bound project
              notebooks?                                                           Y/N

              Did the data recorded allow reconstruction of the activities?               Y/N

              Were pages in the notebook reviewed and signed by the senior
              technical reviewer?                                                    Y/N
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      G.    Were data entries reviewed for transcription errors by someone other
             than the person entering the data into the database?                       Y/N

             If problems were found, were the resolution of them documented and
             the revision of the data indicated in the electronic file?                    Y/N

      H.    Was the database developed so that revised versions of the database are
             identified?                                                             Y/N

      I.     Were the  software and hardware evaluated to determine whether they
             are adequate to achieve the objectives of the computer database
             activities prior to using them?                                           Y/N

             What tests were performed and were  the results from the tests
             documented? (response time, available memory, available power,
             accessibility for use)
       J.     How often are files backed up?
             Is the schedule appropriate to minimize data loss?
       K.    Was a log maintained of database revisions?                             Y/N

       L.    Are the computer manuals available for use by the operators?             Y/N

             Does the manual include all of the data needed to log into the system
             and perform the duties required to develop the emissions database?        Y/N
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V.     REPORTING

       A.     Was the report formatted as required by U.S. EPA?                      Y/N

       B.     Was the report clearly written and inclusive of the applicable emission
              source identified during the planning phase of the work?
                                                                                   Y/N
              If a source was missing, can the reason for the omission be verified to
              be acceptable?                                                        Y/N

       C.     Did the report accurately reflect the data included in the database?
              (Compare the results in the report to the information included in the
              database for 5-10 sources).                                             Y/N

       D.     Was there evidence in the data file of editorial and technical review of
              the document?                                                        Y/N

       E.     Was a copy-ready version of the report included in the master data file?   Y/N

VI.    QUALITY CONTROL

       A.     Were  the QC measures taken adequate to ensure data quality?            Y/N

       B.     Were  the project and quality goals met?                                 Y/N

       C.     Were  actions taken in response to all previous recommendations for
              corrective actions?                                                     Y/N

              Did the actions taken adequately address the quality concerns found?      Y/N
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VII.   RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CORRECTIVE ACTIONS
VIII.   COMMENTS
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                                     APPENDIX B

                          QUALITY CONTROL CHECKLIST

Auditor:	  Date	

Data/Procedure Reviewed:	
Inventory Development Personnel Involved in Work:
Select a facility or source category with high emissions and evaluate the quality of the data
and adequacy of the data handling procedures (access, organization, completeness, etc.).
Record the findings and recommendations for corrective actions, if any, on the checklist and
comment sheet provided.

If recommendations for corrective actions are made, discuss them with the Task Leader
immediately following the audit.  Conduct follow-up activities to determine if the actions
taken in response to the recommendations appropriately resolved the quality issues identified.

I.      DATA

       A.     Identify the source evaluated.
       B.     Describe the data included in the master file for the facility or source
              category.
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      C.     Are the data documented in a manner that will not have the potential to
             be misinterpreted?                                                     Y/N

             Were the instructions for documenting the data followed?                 Y/N

      D.     Are there missing data fields?                                           Y/N

             What procedures are taken by the Data Manager and Task Leaders to
             ascertain missing  data?
             At what point in the inventory process are requests for missing data
             made?
             How is the receipt of the missing data handled? (Are original data
             sheets placed in the master file?)
             Is the procedure followed to ascertain missing data efficient and
             adequate?                                                              Y/N

       E.    Are emissions types given (e.g., actual, allowable, maximum design
             capacity)?                                                             Y/N

       F.    Are the procedures used to calculate emissions described in the data providMTN

       G.    Are the emissions determined in a technically sound manner?             Y/N
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       H.    Are sufficient data provided to recalculate the emission results?           Y/N

             Verify the accuracy of the calculations of the emissions for some of the
             pollutants.  (Attach calculation sheets to the checklist.)

             If any of the values are incorrect, explain how the emissions data were
             corrected.
       I.      How are unavailable data identified? Are they mentioned in the report?
II.     EMISSIONS DATABASE

       A.     Do the values reported on the data sheets reviewed agree with the
              entries in the database?                                                 Y/N

       B.     Who provided the data to the data entry personnel?
       C.     Was there evidence that the data were reviewed for accuracy and completeness
              prior to submittal to the data entry personnel?                            Y/N

       D.     Were the data sheets complete when they were received?                 Y/N

       E.     Were copies or original data sheets submitted to the data entry
              personnel?                                                            Y/N

              If original data sheets were used, do the data tracking records show the
              release of the original data to the data entry personnel?                   Y/N

       F.     Were the QAP and a user's manual accessible to the data entry
              personnel?                                                            Y/N
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      G.     Were the personnel adequately trained to perform the duties assigned?     Y/N

      H.     Were the procedures followed in agreement with those specified in the
             QAP?                                                                Y/N

      I.     Is the database routinely backed up at the end of each updating event?    Y/N

      J.     Does the computer allow double entries for the same source?              Y/N

      K.     Are default values understood and properly documented?                 Y/N

      L.     Are key data fields flagged when data are not entered or are not
             available?                                                             Y/N

      M.    Ask the data entry personnel to explain the QC procedures followed to
             ensure data quality.

             Do they agree with the procedures described in the QAP?                 Y/N

      N.     Does the computer system appear to  be adequate for its intended use?
             (Ask the data entry personnel about the problems they have experienced
             with the system.)                                                      Y/N

      O.     Is the data entry progressing as expected and are the procedures
             followed adequate to ensure data quality?                               Y/N
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III.    RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CORRECTIVE ACTIONS
IV.   COMMENTS
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                                    APPENDIX C

               EMISSIONS INVENTORY DATA ELEMENT CHECKLIST

Name  	____________	

Data Reviewed 	

Date	

A permit will not be considered complete for use in the emissions inventory if the following
data elements are not in the permit application.  Look in the permit application for each data
element and check the space next to the data element to determine if the information
requested was provided.

(1)     Facility name                                                         	
(2)     Facility address, including city                                          	
(3)     Zip code                                                              	
(4)     County or city                                                         	
(5)     Business description or SIC Code                                        	
(6)    Design capacity emissions (if applicable)
        Explanation if not applicable:
(7)    Projected emissions (hourly and annually, if applicable)
        Explanation if not applicable:
(8)    Allowable emissions (hourly and annually, if applicable)
        Explanation if not applicable:
       In some cases, an emission type, such as design capacity emissions, may not be
applicable for that process or source. If that is the case and no emissions are reported for
that emission type, provide a brief explanation below.
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                             APPENDIX C (CONTINUED)

                  EMISSIONS INVENTORY DATABASE CHECKLIST

Name	

Data Reviewed	

Date	

Data entered into the Air Pollutant database should be checked for missing data elements.
Use this list to check representative facilities in the database.  Look  at the facility records for
the following data elements, and check the space next to the data element name if the
information was provided.  In some cases, an emission type, such as design capacity
emissions may not be applicable for that process or source. If that is the case and no
emissions are reported for that emission type, provide a brief explanation on this form.

(1)    Facility name                                                             	
(2)    Facility address, including city                                              	
(3)    Zip code                                                                  	
(4)    County or city                                                             	
(5)    County code                                                              	
(6)    Facility code                                                              	
(7)    Business description or SIC Code                                           	
(8)    Design capacity emissions (if applicable)                                    	
        Explanation if not applicable:
 (10)   Projected emissions (hourly and annually, if applicable)
        Explanation if not applicable:
 (11)    Allowable emissions (hourly and annually, if applicable)
        Explanation if not applicable:
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                                       TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                     (PLEASE READ INSTRUCTIONS ON THE REVERSE BEFORE COMPLETING)
 1. REPORT NO.
   EPA-454/R-97-004f
             3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
  Emission Inventory Improvement Program
  Quality Assurance Procedures
  Preferred And Alternative Methods
             5. REPORT DATE
                7/25/97
             6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
  Emission Inventory Improvement Program
  Quality Assurance Committee
             8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
   U S Environmental Protection Agency
   Office Of Air Quality Planning And Standards (MD-14)
   Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
             10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
             11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.

                68-D2-0160
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
  Office Of Air Quality Planning And Standards, Office Of Air And Radiation,
  U  S. Environmental Protection Agency
  Research Triangle Park, NC 27111
             13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                Technical
             14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
                EPA/200/04
 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
  The Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP) was established in 1993 to promote the
  development and use of standard procedures for collecting, calculating, storing, reporting, and
  sharing air emissions data. The EIIP is designed to promote the development of emission
  inventories that have targeted quality objectives, are cost-effective, and contain reliable and
  accessible data for end users. To this end, the EIIP is developing inventory guidance and
  materials which will be available to states and local agencies, the regulated community, the public
  and the EPA.

  Volume VI presents preferred and alternative methods for applying quality control and quality
  assurance procedures to estimating and compiling emissions data.
17.
                                    KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
a. DESCRIPTORS
  Air Emisisons
  Air Pollution
  Emission Inventory
  Inventory Guidance
b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
   Air Pollution Control
   Emission Inventory
   Guidance
c. COSATI FIELD/GROUP
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
                                                                                 21. NO. OF PAGES
                                                                                      449

                                                                                 22. PRICE

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