United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 EPA-454/R-93-052 December 1993 AIR & EPA COMPARISON OF DESIGN CONCENTRATIONS BASED ON HOURLY MIXING HEIGHTS ESTIMATED BY RAMMET AND METPRO ------- EPA-454/R-93-052 COMPARISON OF DESIGN CONCENTRATIONS BASED ON HOURLY MIXING HEIGHTS ESTIMATED BY RAMMET AND METPRO U. S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Technical Support Division Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 December 1993 7' tfesi Jackson Boulevard l?fh c, Chicago, IL 60604-3590 loor ------- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report was prepared by Mr. James O. Paumier and Mr. Roger W. Erode of Pacific Environmental Services, Inc., Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. This effort has been funded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under Contract No. 68D00124, with Mr. C. Thomas Coulter as the Work Assignment Manager. Special thanks go to Mr. John S. Irwin for helpful suggestions and Mr. Gerald Moss for assisting in retrieving the upper air sounding data used in this study. DISCLAIMER This report has been reviewed by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA, and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products is not intended to constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. 11 ------- PREFACE In this report a comparison is made of the effects of utilizing two different mixing height algorithms, RAMMET and METPRO, in regulatory applications of Gaussian dispersion models. The comparisons are for rural environments only; a future effort is planned to compare these algorithms to treat urban effects. The Environmental Protection Agency must conduct a formal and public review before the Agency can recommend replacement of the RAMMET mixing height algorithm with the METPRO mixing height algorithm. This report is being released to establish a basis for review of the consequences resulting from use of METPRO- derived rural mixing height estimates in routine dispersion modeling of air pollution impacts. As implied above, this report is one of two that must be considered before any formal changes can be considered. ill ------- CONTENTS Preface ii Acknowledgements iii Contents iv Figures v Tables vi 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. METEOROLOGICAL DATA BASES AND PREPROCESSOR OPTIONS 4 3. MODEL OPTIONS 7 3.1 Modeling options 7 3.2 Source characteristics ..... 8 3.3 Receptor configuration 8 4. PERFORMANCE MEASURES 10 5. MODELING RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 11 6. CONCLUDING REMARKS 23 7. REFERENCES 24 iv ------- FIGURES Figure Page 5.1 Annual average mixing height by hour of day for Pittsburgh, 1985 20 5.2 Same as Figure 5.1, except results are for Oklahoma City, 1985 21 5.3 Same as Figure 5.1, except results are for Brownsville, 1985 21 ------- TABLES Table Page 2.1 Missing soundings and calm wind conditions by site and year 5 3.1 Source characteristics 8 3.2 Terrain elevation used in modeling for the 200m stack. . 9 5.1 The estimated H1H and H2H by year, source and averaging time for Pittsburgh, PA. XR is the concentration estimate using the rural mixing height estimates from RAMMET; XM is tne concentration estimate using mixing heights from METPRO 12 5.2 Same as Table 5.1, except results are for Oklahoma City, OK 13 5.3 Same as Table 5.1, except results are for Brownsville, TX 14 5.4 Ratios of the H2H concentrations for all sites, years, sources and averaging times (concentration values are neither paired in time nor space) 17 5.5 H2H concentrations using RAMMET mixing heights and the analogous concentration using METPRO mixing heights (concentrations are paired in time and space for the indicated hours). Note that he is the effective plume height and z; is the mixing height 18 5.6 H2H concentrations using METPRO mixing heights and the analogous concentration using RAMMET mixing heights (concentrations are paired in time and space for the indicated hours). Note that the columns for RAMMET and METPRO are reversed from those in Table 5.5; the ratios remain XM/XR 19 VI ------- 1. INTRODUCTION One of the input values required by many of the Gaussian dispersion models currently recommended by the Guideline on Air Quality Models (Revised)1 (EPA, 1986) is the hourly mixing height, the vertical section of the lower atmosphere with intense vertical mixing. Historically, these values have been provided by a meteorological preprocessor (such as RAMMET (EPA, 1977), PCRAMMET or MPRM2 (Irwin et al., 1990)) which linearly interpolates twice- daily values to each hour of the day. The twice-daily values are obtained from rawinsonde observations at National Weather Service (NWS) stations that routinely collect such data. The soundings, in combination with NWS surface observations of dry bulb temperature, are processed according to the development by Holzworth (1972) to obtain the twice-daily mixing heights. With these twice-daily estimates, RAMMET occasionally computes unrealistically low mixing heights for rural sites. When the preprocessor encounters stable conditions for the hour just before sunrise, it sets the mixing height to zero at sunrise. Hourly mixing heights then are computed by interpolating from the surface up to the maximum afternoon mixing height. This sometimes results in hourly mixing heights of a meter or less just after sunrise. If these mixing heights are input to a dispersion model to estimate concentrations from a ground-based source (e.g., area sources), the dispersion model may yield unrealistically high concentrations because the emissions are trapped in a very shallow layer. In METPRO, the meteorological preprocessor for the Complex Terrain Dispersion Model (CTDMPLUS), hourly estimates of heat (daytime only) and momentum (both day and night) flux are utilized to compute the hourly mixing heights. During the daytime METPRO uses an energy budget approach to estimate the hourly surface heat flux. Net or total incoming radiation, either measured directly 'Hereinafter referred to as the "Guideline". 2Mixing height estimation in RAMMET, PCRAMMET and MPRM are functionally equivalent. The term RAMMET will be applied as a generic term to include all three preprocessors. ------- or estimated from other parameters, is used to obtain the sensible heat flux at the surface for the hour. The surface friction velocity is determined through an iterative procedure that requires only one level of wind speed. The mixing height algorithm, originally developed by Carson (1973) and modified by Weil and Brower (1983) (hereafter referred to as the CWB model), uses the morning sounding and hourly integrated values of the surface heat flux to estimate a mixing height due to convective processes. The sounding and integrated values of the friction velocity are used to produce a mixing height estimate due to mechanical (shear) processes. The larger of the two estimates is chosen for the hour's mixing height. For near-neutral conditions during the daytime, a third estimate of the mixing height is computed. In this case, the largest of the three estimates is selected as the hour's mixing height. Paumier and Irwin (1991) noted, however, that the near-neutral estimate often exceeded the convective and mechanical estimates by an order of magnitude or more, particularly during the morning transition period (the hours shortly after sunrise). They found that the near-neutral estimate was selected about 15% of the time (i.e., of all daytime hours). When selected, this estimate frequently caused abrupt and large increases and decreases from the gradual rise of the mixing height. At night, the friction velocity is estimated from cloud cover and wind speed by a method developed by Venkatram (1980). This, with an estimate of the Monin-Obukhov length, is used to estimate the mixing height from a scheme developed by Zilitinkevich (1972) and extended by Nieuwstadt (1981). The performance of the CWB model versus the interpolation approach was investigated by Paumier and Irwin (1991). Mixing heights from the two methods were compared to observed mixing heights. Both models performed comparably in the late afternoon, but the CWB model (without the near neutral estimate) performed better in the early morning. The purpose of this study is to use the mixing heights estimated by both RAMMET and METPRO in a Guideline dispersion model and compare the resulting pollutant concentrations across a ------- range of source characteristics and meteorological data bases. The results of this comparison will provide an indication of the effect the CWB mixing height algorithm would have on design concentrations for regulatory modeling applications. The data bases used in this comparison and the preprocessor procedures are discussed in the next section. The modeling options are discussed in Section 3, performance measures used in the analysis are explained in Section 4, the results and discussion are presented in Section 5, with concluding remarks in Section 6. References are provided in Section 7. ------- 2. METEOROLOGICAL DATA BASES AND PREPROCESSOR OPTIONS RAMMET requires two input data files - NWS hourly surface observations and twice-daily mixing heights processed by the National Climatic Data Center. METPRO requires the NWS surface observations and 1200 GMT3 upper air sounding. Additionally METPRO requires a profile of winds and temperature from the site for which the data are being processed. Two years of data for three sites were retrieved and processed. The three sites selected for this study are Pittsburgh, PA (WBAN station #94823), representative of an urban east coast site; Oklahoma City, OK (WBAN station #13967)/ representative of a southern plains site; and Brownsville, TX (WBAN station #12919), representative of a coastal environment. Data for 1984 and 1985 were used at Pittsburgh and Oklahoma City; for Brownsville, 1985 and 1986 data were used. The twice-daily mixing heights and NWS surface observations were retrieved from EPA's Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Technology Transfer Network electronic bulletin board. Prior to being made available on the bulletin board, the data are checked for blank fields (missing data) and filled by accepted procedures. No additional modifications to the data were made after retrieving them from the bulletin board. For METPRO to work properly, there must be a 1200 GMT sounding each day. The upper air data obtained for this study did not always meet this condition, so METPRO was modified to skip the daytime mixing height estimation whenever there was no 1200 GMT sounding for an individual day. The sounding files were modified by inserting one record at the point of a missing sounding to indicate to METPRO that there were no data to process. Table 2.1 summarizes the number of missing soundings by site and by year. METPRO also requires hourly profiles of wind and temperature from the site being modeled. There were no on-site data, so a 1-level profile was constructed from the NWS surface wind and temperature observations, with the height of the observations 'Greenwich Mean Time ------- Table 2.1 Missing soundings and calm wind conditions by site and year. Site Year Pittsburgh 1984 Pittsburgh 1985 Oklahoma City 1984 Oklahoma City 1985 Brownsville 1985 Brownsville 1986 Hours /year 8784 8760 8784 8760 8760 8760 Missing Soundings 0000 GMT 1200 GMT 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 Calm wind conditions 858 1027 181 245 381 566 (i.e., anemometer height) set to 10m. At night, METPRO will not compute a mixing height for a wind speed of 0 ms"1 (calm wind) . By using NWS data to construct the profile, there were several hundred hours of calm wind conditions for all the sites combined. The number of hours of calm wind conditions detected in the file of profile data is shown in Table 2.1. METPRO requires two additional files. The first is a file of locally observed solar and net radiation and mixing heights. None of the parameters in this file are required for METPRO to make its computations, but they would be used if they were available. With no locally observed data, a file indicating that there was no available data was created for METPRO to read. The second file is much more important and contains information defining the physical characteristics of the site, e.g., the surface roughness length, albedo (a measure of the reflectivity at the surface), and Bowen ratio (a measure of the surface moisture). These parameters are specified by categories or sectors of wind direction (as defined by the wind direction in the file of profile data) and by month. METPRO allows up to eight nonoverlapping sectors covering all possible directions. Without detailed information about each site, the parameters for this study are defined for only one sector (1° - 360°) and are the same for all months at all three sites. The values used for this analysis are: 0.25m for the surface roughness length, 0.40 for the albedo, and 0.75 for the Bowen ratio. ------- One additional modification was made to METPRO in accordance with the objectives of this study. As discussed earlier, the daytime near-neutral estimate may cause abrupt changes in the rise of the daytime mixing height. Therefore, the daytime near-neutral estimate of the mixing height was ignored in this study. Thus only the convective and mechanical estimates from the CWB model were candidate mixing heights for each hour. With all the raw data processed and modifications made to METPRO, both preprocessors were run on the six sets (3 sites X 2 yrs/site) of data. The output file from RAMMET, a binary file, was converted to ASCII and the METPRO mixing heights merged into the RAMMET files as a separate field (column). Thus, there were three mixing heights per hour in each ASCII file - the rural and urban estimates from RAMMET and the METPRO estimate. If any one of the three mixing heights was missing for the hour, then all three were set to missing when the files were merged. ------- 3. MODEL OPTIONS The dispersion model used in this study was the Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST2) model. This version of the model adds the capability to indicate which fields to read (in an ASCII file) for a particular run, allowing both RAMMET and METPRO mixing heights to reside in the same file as described above. A new (draft) area source algorithm capable of computing concen- tration estimates at receptor locations inside the perimeter of an area source was used in this study. This differs from the version currently available to the general modeling community, which sets concentration estimates to 0.0 for receptors inside the perimeter. ISCST2 requires an input file that defines the modeling options, the source (emissions) information, receptor configuration and file input/output. These options are described next. 3.1 Modeling options The options of most interest here control which dispersion option (rural or urban) to use, the averaging periods, and how to handle missing input data. For this analysis, only the rural dispersion option (corresponding to the rural mixing heights from RAMMET) was used. METPRO only produces one set of mixing heights, and it is assumed that these are representative of rural sites. The averaging periods included in this study were the 1-hr, 3-hr and 24-hr short term averages, plus the period (in this case, the annual) average. Another option employed in this comparison was for processing missing data necessitated by missing METPRO mixing heights due to missing upper air soundings. This processing option provides a means for computing the 3-hr, 24-hr and period (annual) concen- trations that are consistent with the regulatory treatment of calm winds. ------- 3.2 Source characteristics Four sources were processed for this study: three point sources and one area source. For the point sources, constant emissions of 100 gs'1 were assumed. The characteristics for each of these sources is presented in Table 3.1. Table 3.1 Source characteristics. Point sources Stack height (m) 35 100 200* X,Y location & base elevation (m) 0, 0, 0 0, 0, 0 0, 0, 243.84 Emission Exit Stack rate velocity diameter (gs-1) (ms-r) (m) 100 11.7 2.4 100 18.8 4.6 100 26.5 5.6 Temperature (K) 432 416 425 Ground- level area source Area (m2) 250,000 Length of side (m) 500 Emission rate, (gs-'m-2) 0.0004 *A11 model runs with the 200m stack were made with elevated terrain. 3.3 Receptor configuration A gridded polar array of receptors was used in this analysis. There were 36 radials (beginning at 10 degrees from north and spaced every 10 degrees). The number and distance of the concentric rings varied according to the source being modeled. For the 35m and 100m stacks, distances of 400m, 800m, 1200m, 2000m, 4000m, 7000m, and 15000m were used. For the 200m stack, which is located in elevated terrain, distances of 800m, 2000m , 4000m, 7000m and 15000m were used. For the area source, receptor distances were 125m (halfway between the origin and the perimeter), 250m (touching the perimeter at the midpoint of each side), 350m (approximately at the perimeter corners), 800m, 1200m, 2000m and 4000m. As indicated, the 200m stack was modeled with elevated terrain. The terrain elevations are given in Table 3.2 by radial and distance. 8 ------- Table 3.2. Terrain elevation used in the modeling for the 200m stack. All elevations are in feet. Radial ( ° ) 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 90.00 100.00 110.00 120.00 130.00 140.00 150.00 160.00 170.00 180.00 190.00 200.00 210.00 220.00 230.00 240.00 250.00 260.00 270.00 280.00 290.00 300.00 310.00 320.00 330.00 340.00 350.00 360.00 800m 940.00 1040.00 960.00 1020.00 1160.00 1200.00 1180.00 1100.00 1040.00 960.00 780.00 680.00 700.00 740.00 740.00 740.00 700.00 660.00 620.00 610.00 610.00 660.00 860.00 900.00 1020.00 1000.00 940.00 920.00 740.00 610.00 610.00 640.00 640.00 640.00 680.00 780.00 2000m 1100.00 1100.00 1060.00 1040.00 1040.00 1160.00 1200.00 1140.00 1020.00 860.00 1040.00 900.00 780.00 760.00 660.00 800.00 800.00 660.00 620.00 630.00 1020.00 1100.00 1120.00 1160.00 1240.00 1260.00 1100.00 1180.00 1100.00 760.00 840.00 640.00 640.00 640.00 680.00 840.00 Distance 4000m 640.00 720.00 1040.00 1120.00 1040.00 1140.00 1280.00 1220.00 1180.00 1280.00 1280.00 1160.00 880.00 1040.00 1060.00 860.00 1200.00 1200.00 620.00 700.00 900.00 980.00 1040.00 1200.00 1240.00 1240.00 1100.00 1180.00 1220.00 1280.00 1260.00 1220.00 1200.00 1160.00 1060.00 700.00 7000m 1000.00 900.00 1160.00 1160.00 1280.00 1080.00 1320.00 1300.00 1180.00 900.00 1240.00 1100.00 940.00 1260.00 1300.00 1120.00 1140.00 1260.00 880.00 640.00 1200.00 1220.00 1300.00 1240.00 1260.00 1280.00 1280.00 1280.00 1360.00 1320.00 1220.00 1300.00 1100.00 660.00 760.00 680.00 15000m 1000.00 720.00 1120.00 1200.00 1280.00 1220.00 1280.00 1300.00 1140.00 1360.00 1240.00 1180.00 1040.00 1320.00 1260.00 1120.00 1200.00 1280.00 1200.00 1140.00 840.00 1240.00 1300.00 1220.00 1280.00 1280.00 1220.00 1300.00 1260.00 1200.00 1180.00 1000.00 780.00 1060.00 1020.00 900.00 ------- 4. PERFORMANCE MEASURES To compare the effects of mixing heights on concentration, the high-first-high (H1H) and high-second-high (H2H) are reported by site, by year, by source and by averaging time. The H2H was chosen because it is the design concentration on which judgement is based as to whether an existing or proposed pollutant source will violate a National Ambient Air Quality Standard. The Guideline recommends that five years of NWS meteorological data be used for such an analysis. If less than five years of data are available, then the Guideline recommends using the H1H concentration. To compare the concentration estimates, the ratio of the concentration using METPRO-generated mixing heights (XM) to the concentration using RAMMET-generated mixing heights (XR) / XM/XR» is computed. With this ratio, the concentrations using RAMMET mixing heights are regarded as the "observed" concentrations because they are the standard input values to ISCST2. 10 ------- 5. MODELING RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The H1H and H2H are tabulated by site, by year, by source, by averaging time, and by mixing height method in Tables 5.1 - 5.3. The ratio XM/XR is also shown, and is averaged for the H1H and H2H across all sources. There are several overall impressions from looking at the tables. First, the concentration estimates from the area source are orders of magnitude larger than the point source estimates. Second, there are numerous cases where the concentration estimate using the two different mixing heights are equal, i.e., the ratio is identically equal to 1.00. Third, for all but the area source, the concentration estimates using the METPRO-generated mixing heights are generally larger than the estimates using the RAMMET mixing heights. The first point is not too surprising with a ground-level release area source and a portion of the receptor array within the perimeter of the source. The H1H and H2H concentrations occurred at the 250m arc for Pittsburgh and Brownsville. At Oklahoma City, most of the H1H and H2H estimates were at the 250m arc, with a few at the 125m and 350m arcs. The maximum period (annual) averages all occurred at the 125m arc at all the sites for both years. The most interesting point regarding the area source is the difference between the 1-hr H1H concentrations using RAMMET and METPRO mixing heights and, also, the difference between the H1H and H2H for RAMMET alone, most notably for Pittsburgh 1984, Oklahoma City 1985, and Brownsville 1986. The unusually large H1H concentration for the RAMMET estimates is due to an extremely small mixing height at or just after sunrise. In each of the three cases, the mixing height was less than 1m (only O.lm for the Brownsville case). The large 3-h H1H for Oklahoma City 1985 and Brownsville 1986 are due to the dominance of the 1-h H1H in the 3-h average. As stated in the introduction, it is this type of behavior that is of concern with the RAMMET procedure. When small mixing heights such as these are used in ISCST2, pollutants are trapped in an extremely shallow layer, causing an extremely large concentration. 11 ------- Table 5.1 The estimated H1H and H2H by year, source and averaging time for Pittsburgh, PA. XR is tn® concentration estimate using the rural mixing height estimates from RAMMET; XM ig tne concentration estimate using mixing heights from METPRO. 1984 XR (/ignr3) 35m stack l-h HlH H2H 3-h HlH H2H 24 -h HlH H2H Annual 100m stack l-h HlH H2H 3-h HlH H2H 24 -h HlH H2H Annual 200m stack l-h HlH H2H 3-h HlH H2H 24 -h HlH H2H Annual 247 238 194 187 58 53 5 81 50 30 25 7 5 0 .20 .28 .70 .72 .03 .64 .00 .06 .98 .85 .51 .65 .96 .396 XM {/jgm'3) 315 305 194 187 58 52 4 94 61 39 27 7 7 0 .89 .51 .70 .72 .03 .70 .98 .02 .29 .41 .97 .88 .04 .380 Avg. XM/XR by Source 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.98 1.00 HlH: 1.07 H2H: 1.09 1.16 1.20 1.28 1.10 1.03 1.18 0.96 HlH: 1.11 H2H: 1.16 1985 XR 255 242 199 171 63 56 6 72 54 28 23 6 5 0 ., .56 .33 .53 .25 .42 .87 .42 .90 .95 .81 .12 .59 .83 .454 XM 378 302 199 171 63 57 6 85 58 34 24 6 5 0 >> .06 .63 .53 .25 .42 .01 .43 .03 .45 .15 .33 .75 .52 .436 XM/XR 1.48 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 HlH: H2H: 1.17 1.06 1.19 1.05 1.03 0.95 0.96 HlH: H2H: Avg. by Source 1.12 1.08 1.09 1.02 with terrain 34 26 18 17 4 3 0 500m X 500m area l-h HlH H2H 3-h HlH H2H 24-h HlH H2H Annual Average 133769 46544 50539 41696 24299 22485 10638 .86 .59 .43 .65 .57 .63 .317 38 30 18 17 4 3 0 .38 .99 .82 .65 .57 .28 .282 1.10 1.17 1.02 1.00 1.00 0.90 0.89 HlH: 1.00 H2H: 1.02 38 31 15 13 4 4 0 .56 .06 .69 .06 .17 .14 .397 36 30 13 11 4 3 0 .34 .63 .42 .98 .17 .90 .352 0.94 0.99 0.86 0.92 1.00 0.94 0.89 HlH: H2H: 0.92 0.95 source .88 .84 .97 .00 .63 .08 .29 46544 46544 44961 41535 24299 22482 10631 .85 .84 .72 .11 .63 .52 .30 0.35 1.00 0.89 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 HlH: 0.81 H2H: 1.00 HlH: 1.00 H2H: 1.07 69466 68483 45150 41454 25947 21757 10266 .44 .44 .68 .49 .32 .81 .72 69466 68483 45150 41454 25947 21757 10225 .44 .44 .68 .49 .32 .82 .05 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 HlH: H2H: H1H: H2H: 1.00 1.00 1.03 1.01 12 ------- Table 5.2 Same as Table 5.1, except results are for Oklahoma City, OK. 1984 35m stack 1-h H1H H2H 3-h H1H H2H 24 -h H1H H2H Annual 100m stack 1-h H1H H2H 3-h H1H H2H 24 -h H1H H2H Annual 200m stack 1-h H1H H2H 3-h H1H H2H 24 -h H1H H2H Annual 500m X 500m 1-h H1H H2H 3-h H1H H2H 24 -h H1H H2H Annual Average XR (MSP 265 255 200 180 87 68 8 85 53 38 27 6 5 0 XM •3) (/ignr3) .13 .05 .19 .68 .84 .71 .12 .79 .91 .19 .91 .27 .58 .632 371 342 200 180 87 68 8 95 69 43 29 6 5 0 .21 .16 .19 .68 .84 .71 .05 .71 .42 .95 .46 .35 .25 .559 Avg. XM/XR by Source 1.40 1.34 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 H1H: 1.10 H2H: 1.11 1.12 1.29 1.15 1.06 1.01 0.95 0.88 H1H: 1.04 H2H: 1.10 1985 XR (jigm 276 263 208 175 87 80 8 69 65 35 25 6 5 0 XM ~3) (/igm'3) .13 .74 .77 .34 .78 .69 .61 .17 .80 .08 .69 .30 .82 .612 324 300 208 175 87 80 8 97 70 35 27 6 5 0 .69 .76 .77 .34 .78 .69 .67 .67 .66 .08 .14 .29 .82 .592 XM/XR 1.18 1.14 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 H1H: H2H: 1.41 1.07 1.00 1.06 1.00 1.00 0.97 H1H: H2H: Avg. by Source 1.05 1.05 1.10 1.04 with terrain 34 22 17 14 5 3 0 area 77739 46521 45041 41791 21741 19813 8592 .41 .26 .23 .46 .96 .80 .514 39 28 17 13 5 3 0 .38 .55 .23 .90 .96 .80 .477 1.14 1.28 1.00 0.96 1.00 1.00 0.93 H1H: 1.02 H2H: 1.08 29 21 15 13 5 5 0 .43 .52 .32 .29 .62 .06 .438 34 25 17 16 5 5 0 .44 .22 .71 .02 .62 .22 .395 1.17 1.17 1.16 1.21 1.00 1.03 0.90 H1H: H2H: 1.06 1.14 source .06 .00 .38 .86 .98 .41 .98 46544 46521 45041 41791 21742 19909 8588 .84 .00 .38 .86 .17 .74 .95 0.60 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 H1H: 0.90 H2H: 1.00 H1H: 1.02 H2H: 1.07 499111 56094 166370 40946 23747 20331 8414 .81 .27 .61 .88 .79 .11 .03 46524 46370 40946 38395 20367 18883 8383 .45 .65 .88 .19 .43 .18 .18 0.09 0.83 0.25 0.94 0.86 0.93 1.00 H1H: H2H: H1H: H2H: 0.55 0.90 0.94 1.03 13 ------- Table 5.3 Same as Table 5.1, except the results are for Brownsville, TX. 35m stack 1-h H1H H2H 3-h H1H H2H 24-h H1H H2H Annual 100m stack 1-h H1H H2H 3-h H1H H2H 24-h H1H H2H Annual 200m stack 1-h H1H H2H 3-h HIM H2H 24-h H1H H2H Annual 500m X 500m 1-h H1H H2H 3-h H1H H2H 24-h H1H H2H Annual Average XR (Aignr3) 271.29 269.54 226.60 210.33 111.56 78.90 14.58 59.69 49.05 35.34 23.16 8.23 5.73 1.04 1984 XM (/ignr3) 362.31 323.96 226.60 210.33 111.56 78.90 14.63 77.16 58.18 35.38 23.16 8.23 5.73 1.04 Avg. XM/XR by Source 1.34 1.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 H1H: 1.09 H2H: 1.07 1.29 1.19 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 H1H: 1.07 H2H: 1.06 1985 XR (jigm'3) 296.51 270.14 200.46 188.18 85.04 82.35 13.40 79.49 51.36 26.50 23.46 6.63 5.67 0.973 XM (/zgnf3) 364.30 270.14 200.46 188.18 85.04 82.97 13.40 77.15 52.61 32.83 23.38 6.25 6.12 0.957 XM/XR 1.23 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 H1H: H2H: 0.97 1.02 1.24 1.00 0.94 1.08 0.98 H1H: H2H: Avg. by Source 1.06 1.00 1.03 1.03 with terrain 34.71 28.29 17.78 14.99 6.49 6.29 0.950 38.55 36.80 17.06 14.99 6.33 6.29 0.915 1.11 1.30 0.96 1.00 0.98 1.00 0.96 H1H: 1.00 H2H: 1.10 33.34 25.31 17.12 15.43 5.66 5.33 0.851 39.06 29.62 17.12 15.46 5.66 5.33 0.836 1.17 1.17 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.98 H1H: H2H: 1.04 1.06 area source 69466.44 68942.10 59532.11 55198.79 24867.44 22010.57 9490.38 69466.44 68942.10 59532.11 55198.79 24867.44 22010.58 9489.02 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 H1H: 1.00 H2H: 1.00 H1H: 1.04 H2H: 1.06 486653.59 69815.01 166256.86 44901.20 23801.00 22065.44 10051.20 69815.01 66808.31 45567.40 44703.58 23801.00 22065.44 10012.65 0.14 0.96 0.27 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 H1H: H2H: H1H: H2H: 0.60 0.99 0.93 1.02 14 ------- Very near the surface, small increases in mixing height can result in much smaller concentration estimates. For example, increasing the mixing height from O.lm to 2.1m in the Brownsville 1986 case decreased the maximum concentration for that hour from 486,653 ngm'3 to about 25,000 /ignr3, still quite large but significantly less. There were no mixing heights less than 3.0m from METPRO, therefore the concentrations for the ground-level area source did not show the extreme variations exhibited with the RAMMET mixing heights. The second point, that the ratios are identically 1.00 (i.e., XR = XM) in many instances, is due in part to the meteorology. Only the mixing heights differ between ISCST2 runs using RAMMET output and METPRO output. For the hour, all other meteorology is identical. Why a particular mix of meteorological conditions produces the H1H or H2H concentration from an entire year of data is beyond the scope of this comparison. Rather, the focus is on the differences between the input data bases, i.e., the mixing heights and (to some extent) atmospheric stability. In examining the cases4 where XM = XR/ the estimates occurred for the same hour or group of hours. In many cases the stability class was either 5, 6 or 7 (stable atmosphere). ISCST2 assumes unlimited vertical mixing in stable conditions. Computationally, the terms for reflections at the mixing height are omitted from the vertical term of the Gaussian plume equation. Consequently, mixing heights from both RAMMET and METPRO, no matter how different, will produce the same concentration. For a more detailed discussion of the vertical dispersion term in ISCST2, see Section 1.1.6 in the User's Guide for the Industrial Source Complex (ISC2) Dispersion Models, Volume II (EPA, 1992). Another consideration on this point is the effective plume height (he) relative to the mixing height in unstable atmospheric conditions. A general rule of thumb (R. W. Erode, Pacific Environmental Services, Inc., personal communication) is that the mixing height has little or no affect on the maximum concentration "Cases where the ratio differs from 1.00 in the fourth or fifth digit to the right of the decimal were not considered. 15 ------- estimate if the mixing height is greater than twice the effective plume height. This was particularly evident for the 35m stack where the effective plume height is only 100m - 200m and the mixing height from both preprocessors is 400m or more. This "rule" becomes less clear for the 200m stack, but may be explained in terms of the effect of elevated terrain on he and the mixing height. Assume that the terrain is monotonically rising in the direction of plume transport. With the plume remaining at its stabilization height, the effective plume height decreases downwind. However, the mixing height is terrain-following. The net effect is to increase the difference between he and the mixing height, possibly to the point where the mixing height has little or no effect on ground level concentrations. For example, if the effective plume height in flat terrain is 350m and the mixing height is 600m above local ground level, there may be significant reflections from the mixed layer top that enhance the ground level concentrations. However, for a receptor that is 140m above stack base, the mixing height is still 600m above local ground level but the effective plume height is now only 210m and, according to the "rule of thumb", there are no contributions to ground-level concentrations by reflections from the mixed layer top. With the elevated terrain in this study, particularly at the more remote arcs, the effective plume height can be reduced by 100m or more. This apparently makes a sufficient adjustment such that the H1H and H2H 24-hr average concentrations are identical for both RAMMET- and METPRO-generated mixing heights. Section 1.1.6.2 in the User's Guide for the Industrial Source Complex (ISC2) Dispersion Models, Volume II (EPA, 1992) provides a more complete discussion on the vertical dispersion term in elevated terrain. The final point is the primary purpose of this study - to determine what effect, if any, mixing heights estimated by METPRO have on concentration estimates. The primary focus here is on the H2H (design) concentrations. Table 5.4 summarizes the ratios of the H2H estimates listed in Tables 5.1 - 5.3. The design concentrations using mixing heights from METPRO are generally greater by 15-30% than those using RAMMET mixing heights. The 16 ------- Table 5.4 Ratios of the H2H concentrations for all sites, years, sources and averaging times (concentration values are neither paired in time nor space). AVG3TcLQi.no Time Source 1-hr 35m 100m 200m Area 3-hr 35m 100m 200m Area 24-hr 35m 100m 200m Area Annual 35m 100m 200m Area 1984 PA OK TX Avg. 1.28 1.34 1.20 1.27 1.20 1.29 1.19 1.23 1.17 1.28 1.30 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.10 1.06 1.00 1.05 1.00 0.96 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.18 0.95 1.00 1.04 0.90 1.00 1.00 0.97 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.99 1.00 1.00 0.96 0.88 1.00 0.95 0.89 0.93 0.96 0.93 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1985 PA OK TX Avg. 1.25 1.14 1.00 1.13 1.06 1.07 1.02 1.05 0.99 1.17 1.17 1.11 1.00 0.83 0.96 0.93 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.05 1.06 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.21 1.00 1.04 1.00 0.94 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.00 0.95 1.00 1.08 1.01 0.94 1.03 1.00 0.99 1.00 0.93 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.00 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.97 0.89 0.90 0.98 0.92 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Average : 2 -year Average 1.20 1.14 1.18 0.97 1.00 1.05 1.02 0.99 1.00 1.03 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.96 0.93 1.00 1.03 difference is particularly notable for point source simulations with 1-hr averaging times. The differences between the two sets of estimates decrease with averaging period, but are essentially identical for averaging times greater than 1-hr. When all sites, years, sources and averaging times are pooled, XM/XR = 1.03. To gain some insight into why the concentration estimates using METPRO mixing heights are higher than those using RAMMET mixing heights, ISCST2 was rerun for hours producing the H2H values in the initial analyses. For the hours that produced a H2H 1-hr concentration using a RAMMET mixing height (Tables 5.1 - 5.3), the same hours were rerun using the METPRO mixing heights, pairing in time and space. The results of this combination are shown in Table 5.5. Similarly, for the hours that produced a H2H concentration using a METPRO mixing height (Tables 5.1 - 5.3), the 17 ------- Table 5.5 H2H concentration using RAMMET mixing heights and the analogous concentration using METPRO mixing heights (concentrations are paired in time and space for the indicated hours) . Note that he is the effective plume height and z{ is the mixing height. RAMMET Site & year Pittsburgh, 1984 Pittsburgh, 1985 Oklahoma City, 1984 Oklahoma City, 1985 Brownsville, 1985 Brownsville, 1986 Source 200m 100m 35m 200m 100m 35m 200m 100m 35m 200m 100m 35m 200m 100m 35m 200m 100m 35m Julian day /hour 167/14 211/12 163/12 161/12 211/12 169/11 203/12 210/13 250/13 209/13 123/12 221/14 163/13 237/12 247/11 242/11 164/11 182/14 (m) 860 476 115 745 715 78 269 465 68 250 483 75 961 548 71 741 461 68 (m) 1052 1649 1195 970 1160 1445 1833 1981 1709 1063 718 1341 1097 1321 929 1197 834 1629 XR (/zgm'3) 26 51 238 31 54 242 22 53 255 21 65 263 28 49 269 25 51 270 .6 .0 .3 .1 .9 .3 .3 .9 .0 .5 .8 .7 .3 .1 .5 .3 .4 .1 METPRO (m) 830 1183 1312 829 1460 1472 844 1512 1198 724 672 1041 913 942 1138 776 939 1459 XM (/igm~ 0. 51. 238. 36. 49. 242. 22. 53. 255. 21. 70. 263. 34. 58. 269. 39. 51. 270. ., 0 0 3 3 8 3 3 9 0 5 7 7 0 2 5 1 3 1 Average : Ratio 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .00 .00 .00 .17 .91 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .07 .00 .20 .19 .00 .55 .00 .00 .01 same hours were rerun using the RAMMET mixing heights, pairing in time and space. The results are shown in Table 5.6. As in the ranked comparisons listed in tables 5.1 - 5.3 (in which concentration estimates are unpaired in time and space), Tables 5.5 and 5.6 illustrate that the METPRO mixing heights tended to produce higher concentrations overall by 20%. For the 36 cases in the two tables, METPRO and RAMMET produced identical concentrations for 12 of the cases. Seven of the 12 cases were for the 35m stack where the mixing height was often much higher 18 ------- Table 5.6 H2H concentration using METPRO mixing heights and the analogous concentration using RAMMET mixing heights (concentrations are paired in time and space for the indicated hours). Note that the columns for RAMMET and METPRO are reversed from those in Table 5.5; the ratios remain XM/XR- METPRO Site & year Pittsburgh, 1984 Pittsburgh, 1985 Oklahoma City, 1984 Oklahoma City, 1985 Brownsville, 1985 Brownsville, 1986 Source 200m 100m 35m 200m 100m 35m 200m 100m 35m 200m 100m 35m 200m 100m 35m 200m 100m 35m Julian day /hour 212/13 164/12 252/09 211/12 161/12 246/07 187/14 175/13 115/08 144/13 123/11 299/09 237/12 237/12 198/08 164/11 131/11 182/14 (m) 780 467 157 1032 477 126 640 541 117 694 483 116 875 548 122 741 552 68 (m) 1153 759 158 1460 829 136 1059 735 124 1183 672 124 942 942 132 939 708 1459 XM (/jgm-3) 31 61 305 30 58 302 28 69 342 25 70 300 36 58 324 29 52 270 .0 .3 .5 .6 .5 .6 .6 .4 .2 .2 .7 .8 .8 .2 .0 .6 .6 .1 RAMMET (m) 1591 1328 505 1160 970 601 1943 1033 1119 2180 718 1244 1321 1321 349 834 689 1629 XR 22 44 155 38 51 184 15 49 195 14 65 174 26 49 197 33 54 270 ") .5 .3 .0 .6 .1 .1 .7 .5 .8 .0 .8 .5 .2 .1 .7 .3 .0 .1 Average : Ratio 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 .38 .38 .97 .79 .14 .64 .82 .40 .75 .80 .07 .72 .40 .19 .64 .89 .97 .00 .39 than the effective plume height, he (recall the discussion earlier on the relation of he to the mixing height) . In four of the 36 cases, the RAMMET mixing height produced a higher concentration. In one of the cases, the METPRO mixing height was below he, yielding a concentration of 0.0. In the remaining 19 cases, the concentration using a METPRO mixing height was greater than the concentration using the RAMMET mixing height. For the hours from 7 to 9 (the morning transition period), the concentration 19 ------- difference was as much as a factor of 2 for the 35m stack. For those morning hours, the METPRO mixing height was about 150m and the RAMMET mixing height was 3-10 times higher. This behavior is not necessarily unique to these few cases. The influence of mixing height estimates on the occurrence of particularly high concentration ratios, and the long term distribution pattern of such estimates, was of interest in assessing the consequence of using the CWB model. Figures 5.1 - 5.3 show the annual average mixing height by hour of day for 1985 from each of the three sites. Each data point represents an average of 365 values. The mixing heights from RAMMET were, on average, about 250m - 350m higher than the annual average METPRO mixing heights for the hours corresponding to the H2H values in Tables 5.5 and 5.6. By late afternoon (hour 16 and later), the differences are much less. This tendency was observed and reported by Paumier and Irwin (1991). In their analysis they noticed that, until the maximum mixing height was observed, the mixing heights estimated by RAMMET significantly overpredicted the observed values, while those estimated by METPRO showed a modest underprediction. After the maximum mixing height was observed, estimates from either method showed little bias. M i -« i ncj n» i Q nt. C r i 5 O O 1 DOD-- 7 f. D - - 2 5 0 - - -t 1 1 h METPRO RAMMET 1 S 3 -4 5 B ~7 8 9 ID 11 12 13 14 15 1E 17 IB 192D 21 2223 Hour- Figure 5.1. Annual average mixing height by hour of day for Pittsburgh, 1985. 20 ------- Mixing neiQnt C 1500- 1250-- 1 O O O - - 7 5 O - - 500 -- 250 -- H 1 1 h H (- 1 1 r- METPRO RAMMET 1 2 3 -4 5 6 7 B 9 -10111213141516-1718-192021222324 Hour- Figure 5.2. Same as Figure 5.1, except results are for Oklahoma City, 1985. 1 Q hx. C 1 5OO 125O-- 1 OOO-- 5 o a - - 25O -- METPRO RAMMET —I 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 H I 2 3 4 5 B 7 S 3 1O-111213141516171B132O2122232-4 Hour- Figure 5.3. Same as Figure 5.1, except results are for Brownsville, 1985. The increase in the 1-hr concentration estimates using METPRO mixing heights can be attributed to the mixing height being much closer to the effective plume height. As simulated by ISCST2, all plume material is below the mixing height when hc is less than Zj. 21 ------- Conversely, no plume material is below the mixing height when hc is greater than z{. Such phenomena are exemplified in Table 5.5. 22 ------- 6. CONCLUDING REMARKS This comparison has shown that the 1-hr H2H design concen- trations estimated using mixing height estimates from METPRO are generally larger than the design concentrations using RAMMET mixing heights for the point sources by an average of 15-20%. For other averaging periods, the point source results appear to be independent of mixing height algorithm. Similar conclusions are reached when the concentrations are paired in time and space. A notable difference is the H1H 1-hr concentration for an area source. The potential for unusually large concentration estimates resulting from extremely small mixing heights for a ground-level area source is far greater when using RAMMET-generated mixing heights. In this comparison, three of the six site-years exhibited such an occurrence. These results should be viewed with the reminder that the NWS surface observations were used to create an on-site profile of winds and temperature for METPRO. When METPRO was developed, the intent was that the profile data would come from a multi-level, instrumented tower (and in future years from remote sensing capabilities) located at the site where the data are required. The concentration estimates on an hour-by-hour basis would certainly change if on-site data were employed, but the effect on conclusions reached in this study would not be expected to change significantly. It should be emphasized that this comparison was for mixing height estimation in rural areas only. As mentioned above, METPRO does not estimate mixing heights for urban ares, as does RAMMET. However, a modification to allow METPRO to emulate the urban "switch" in RAMMET is being contemplated and will await future testing and evaluation. 23 ------- 7. REFERENCES Carson, D., 1973. The Development of a Dry Inversion-Capped Convectively Unstable Boundary Layer. Quart. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 99: 450-467. Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. User's Manual for Single- Source (CRSTER) Model. EPA Publication No. EPA-450/2-77-013. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. (NTIS No. PB 271-360) Environmental Protection Agency, 1986. Guideline on Air Quality Models (Revised), and its supplements. EPA Publication No. EPA-450/2-78-027R. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. (NTIS No. PB 86-245248) Environmental Protection Agency, 1992. User's Guide for the Industrial Source Complex (IS2) Dispersion Models., Volume II - Description of Model Algorithms. EPA Publication No. EPA- 450/4-92-008b. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. Holzworth, G., 1972. Mixing Heights, Wind Speeds, and Potential for Urban Air Pollution Throughout the Contiguous United States. AP-101. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. Irwin, J. S. and J. 0. Paumier, 1990. Characterizing the Dispersive State of Convective Boundary Layers for Applied Dispersion Modeling. Bound.-Layer Meteorol., 53: 267-296. Irwin, J. S., J. 0. Paumier and R. W. Erode, 1988. Meteorological Processor for Regulatory Models (MPRM-1.1) User's Guide. EPA Publication No. EPA-600/8-88-094. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. Nieuwstadt, F. T. M., 1981. The Steady-State Height and Resistance Laws of the Nocturnal Boundary Layer: Theory Compared with Cabauw Observations. Bound.-Layer Meteorol., 20: 3-17. Paumier, J. 0. and Irwin, J. S., 1991. Comparison of Modified Carson and EPA Mixing Height Estimates Using Data From Five Field Experiments. Seventh Joint Conference on Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with AWMA. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA. Venkatram, A., 1980. Estimating the Monin-Obukhov Length in the Stable Boundary Layer for Dispersion Calculations. Bound.- Layer Meteorol., 19:481-485. Weil, J. C. and R. P. Brower, 1983. Estimating Convective Boundary Layer Parameters for Diffusion Applications. Environmental Center, Martin Marietta Corp., PPSP-MP-48. Zilitinkevich, S. S., 1972. On the Determination of the Height of the Ekman Boundary Layer. Bound. Layer Meteorol., 3: 141-145. 24 ------- TECHNICAL REPORT DATA (Please read Instructions on reverse before completing) i. REPORT NO. EPA-454/R-93-052 3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO. 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. REPORT DATE December 1993 Comparison of Design Concentrations Based on Hourly Mixing Heights Estimated by RAMMET and METPRO 6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE 7. AUTHOR(S) James O. Paumier 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO. 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Technical Support Division Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO. 11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO. 68D00124 - 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS 13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED 14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE 15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 16. ABSTRACT A consequence analysis was conducted to investigate the effect on design concentration values resulting from using two different methods for estimating mixing height. Two years of meteorological data from Pittsburgh, PA, Oklahoma City, OK and Brownsville, TX were processed through RAMMET and METPRO meteorological preprocessors. The mixing heights from METPRO were merged with the RAMMET output and separate ISCST2 model runs were made using the two sets of mixing heights from each site and year. The effects of the two mixing height algorithms on predicted high second-high pollutant concentrations (design concentrations) were compared. The 1-hr design concentrations using mixing height estimates from METPRO were generally larger than those using RAMMET mixing heights for the three point sources by about 20%. Similar results were obtained when the data were paired in time and space. This tendency was not as apparent for other averaging times. For the ground- level area source, the potential for unusually large concentrations from extremely small mixing heights is far greater when using RAMMET mixing heights. 17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS a. DESCRIPTORS Air Pollution Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling Meteorological Preprocessors Mixing Height Estimation 18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT Release Unlimited b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS 19. SECURITY CLASS (Report) Unclassified 20. SECURITY CLASS (Page) Unclassified c. COSATI Field/Group 21. NO. OF PAGES 24 22. PRICE EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77) PREVIOUS EDITION IS OBSOLETE U.S. tnvironmcnt-i: V.^ction Agency Region 5, Library .PL-12J) 77 West Jackson Boulevard 12th Chicago, IL 60604-3590 ------- |