United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office Of Air Quality
Planning And Standards
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
THE CHIEF
EPA^54/N-94-036
Volume VI, No. 1
Winter 1995
NEWS LET TER
— THE CLEARINGHOUSE FOR INVENTORIES AND EMISSION FACTORS —
THE EMISSION INVENTORY:
APPLICATIONS AND IMPROVEMENT
Conference Impressions By Bryan Fricke
The fourth International Conference on Emission Inven-
tory Improvement was held in Raleigh, NC, November 1-3,
jointly sponsored by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) and the Air & Waste Management Association
(A&WMA). This year's meeting, attended by over 300 people,
highlighted the substantial progress made in emission inven-
tories over the past few years, while emphasizing the continu-
ing need for improvement.
The conference addressed a wide range of inventory
topics, including air toxic emissions, biogenic emissions, elec-
tronic data processing, computerized tools, motor vehicle emis-
sions, regional and international emission programs, and new
developments in stationary source emissions. Recent strides
in inventory-related matters were discussed in a number of ses-
sions that dealt with improvements in data management sys-
tems, inventory techniques, and analytical methods. Never-
theless, concerns about the use of dubious emission factors in
some inventories and disagreement on the amount of detail
needed in a national emission inventory were reminders of the
need for more inventory improvement.
The conference started off energetically as J. David
Mobley, General Conference Co-chair and Leader of the Emis-
sion Factor And Inventory Group (EFIG) of EPA's Office Of Air
Quality Planning And Standards (OAQPS), welcomed the con-
ference attendees and introduced keynote speaker, John Seitz,
the Director of OAQPS. Seitz's address dealt in large part with
his support of the emission factor and inventory programs as
well as the Aerometric Information Retrieval System (AIRS),
the current national emission inventory data system. Seitz ad-
dressed data management issues, the most popular topic at the
meeting. He asserted that it may be necessary to use less
detailed data than what is currently being required.
Other notable speakers at this conference included Mary
Nichols, the Assistant Administrator of EPA's Office Of Air
And Radiation, and David Hawkins, of the Natural Resources
Defense Council. Nichols's luncheon address underscored the
importance of emission inventories in the Agency's overall air
quality program. Hawkins's luncheon address not only agreed
with the importance of emission inventories, but it also called
for a number of improvements. In contrast to Seitz, Hawkins
expressed the need for more detailed emission inventories ex-
tending down to the process-specific level. Hawkins also ex-
pressed a need for higher confidence levels in the accuracy of
emission inventories. Moreover, he suggested that inventory-
related data should be made readily available to the public in an
electronic format.
The Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP), a
joint EPA/state/local effort to improve the collection and re-
porting of emission data, also had a forum at the conference. In
a panel session, each co-chair of the seven committees that
make up the EIIP (area source, point source, mobile source,
biogenic source, data management, interactions, and quality
assurance) gave a presentation concerning the goals of his/her
committee and the progress made thus far. These presenta-
tions were followed by a question and answer session that
allowed conference attendees to direct their inquiries either to
individual committee co-chairs or to the panel as a whole.
The conference concluded with a "Wrap-up Panel", which
allowed a number of panelists to give their perspectives on the
substance of the conference, as well as their views on the
challenges that lie ahead for those in the emission inventory
field. Following these speeches, conference attendees were
once again invited to address questions to the panelists and
also to give their perspectives on issues raised during the
conference. Challenges cited for the future include:
• Development and implementation of products from the
EIIP
• Improved data management
• Enhanced quality assurance and quality control
• Greater coordination and communication across programs
• Continued improvement of emission factor and inventory
methodology tQ
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*s VIEW OF THE IMSIDI:
A ShBWnB*«MB¥K VlRW Cfe1 EPA B&N&Q&AmWB®
In Search Of Excellence while Thriving On Chaos — these \ i> are but a couple
of the book titles I encountered while serving a three-month assignment N. jr with the Emission Factor And
Inventory Group (EFIG). My permanent employer and pre-EPA point of \^ J reference is NC's Air Quality
Section, so my mission while at EPA was simple: "Go where no NC Air ^a^ysz**^ Quality employee has ever gone
before, and seek out intelligent life forms in that distant giant nebula named EPA". What a task] Others, more familiar with
military jargon, just called it covert operations. Tongue and cheek aside (and foot out of mouth, I hope), the three months I spent
at the top of the regulatory food chain were very enjoyable and insightful.
I am normally a state permit engineer, with additional duties including compliance inspections and point source emission
inventories. From this reference point, my exposure to the national level decision making and analysis process was heady. I can
now say, with conviction, that the EPA Emission Factor And Inventory Group does an amazing amount of work under severely
resource-starved conditions. Prior to my rotation, I had envisioned this group as a huge machine made up of many-peopled
cogs. I suppose I had jumped to that conclusion after weighing the AP-42 volumes, mentally assigning a person-to-pound
factor, and multiplying. In fact, I am still amazed at the small number of people involved in this "heavy" activity. More so, even,
after Jim Southerland told me that the stack of supporting documentation for AP-42 reaches as high as the Mutual Building (the
12-story location of OAQPS Headquarters just down the road in Durham). Now don't ask me how Jim knows this, but he has had
plenty of practice developing numbers that depict such abstract concepts (better known as emission factors)....
So, now the hard question: What exactly did I do (please don't substitute that "accomplish" word) while at EPA/RTP? To
be perfectly honest, I acted as a sponge for the spoken and written word! And, every now and then, I would blurt out a statement
that was obviously driven by state agency sentiments.
Actually, I learned all about the EPA telephone system, EPA LANs, the federal government's compressed work schedule,
the EPA, the OAQPS reorganization, and, oh yeah, emission factor and inventory development. Sometime into the last month of
my rotation, I finally learned how to save and retrieve my phone messages. But, I never did memorize my phone numbers. That's
right, numbers. During five years with the State Of North Carolina, I have had only one phone number. Three months with EPA,
and I had the opportunity to have two different numbers. At that rate, I calculate that I should have changed my telephone
number 40 times during my time with the state. So out there, I wasn't actively avoiding anyone in not returning your calls, I
probably had just switched numbers.
During my three-month experience, I worked on the preliminary guidance for the Emission Factor Development Initiative
(" Adopt- A-Factor"), and I probably talked to many of you along the way. As a result of my three months, I am currently finishing
a client analysis of EFIG's emission estimation tools and services (which include the C/I7£FBulletin Board System and this
newsletter). This project provided me with an excuse to play for many entertaining hours on the OAQPS Technology Transfer
Network and with the FIRE data base. If you are not familiar with these diamonds of information, I recommend that you take the
time to learn where things are in the EPA electronic warehouses. The amount of information available through the bulletin board
and miscellaneous CD-ROMs is incredible. If EPA wrote it, said it, or did it, chances are it is up there in electronic format. Now,
if only the states could have a bulletin board .... We will have to be happy with the CHIEF Bulletin Board System's public
forums for the time being.
When I started my assignment with EFIG in October — which, by the way, was recently renamed from the Emission
Inventory Branch (EEB) — I actually got to know some of the people I had previously harassed weekly on the phone. I tried not
to remind them, and hoped that they would not recognize my name. In the future, I will be nicer. During my stay at EPA, I also
had the opportunity to attend the EPA/Air & Waste Management Association specialty conference "The Emission Inventory:
Applications And Improvement"; to sit in on numerous conference calls (the meeting medium of choice for EPA); to hear all
about Russia during luncheon seminars by the RAMP folks (The Russian Air Management Program); to read memoranda and
documents I would never have seen while working with the state; and to talk on the phone with very important people, such as
the EPA Regional Air Branch Chiefs.
(Cont. on p. 3)
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(Cont.fromp. 2)
All in all, it was a wonderful time, and I would like to thank
Jim Southerland and David Mobley for giving me the opportu-
nity to spend time at EPA. I would also like to thank my bosses
at North Carolina, Paul Muller and Alan Klimek, for allowing me
three months away from the very important business of writing
permits, inspecting facilities, and fortifying the office for the
onslaught of Title V and Title HI. I highly recommend this type
of exchange between EPA and the states, and think it was ben-
eficial to both of us. I am sure that this experience gave me a
depth of understanding and purpose that I did not have previ-
ously. There is no doubt that I will be able to serve the State of
North Carolina better, with a renewed sense of purpose and
direction. If any of you would like to know more about worming
your way into the heart of EPA, just give me a call at the Air
Quality Section in Asheville, (704) 251-6208. G3
INTERNATIONAL INVENTORY
CONFERENCE
NOVEMBER 13-16, 1995 ~ RALEIGH, NC
CALL FOR PAPERS
The Emission Inventory: Programs and Progress,
an international specialty conference sponsored by the
Air & Waste Management Association and the U. S. EPA
will be heldNovember 13-16,1995 inRaleigh. The confer-
ence will address the development, use and improvement
of emission inventories, and will focus on evolving meth-
ods and issues in the inventory development process.
Papers are invited on these and other related topics for
both oral and poster presentations:
• Motor vehicle emissions
• Regional and international emission programs
• Inventory quality and uncertainties
• Collecting and managing emission-related data
• Electronic data processing and computerized tools
• New developments in stationary source emissions
• Implementing Federal and State legislation
• Biogenic emissions
• Air toxics emissions
Authors should submit a 200-300 word summary of objec-
tives, scope of paper, current status of work and applica-
tion of results. Include the paper title, author's name(s),
title, affiliation and mailing address, and include whether
the paper is an oral or poster presentation. Send two
copies of your abstract by April 14, 1995 to: Garry
Brooks, Radian Corporation, 1600 Perimeter Park Drive,
Morrisville, NC 27560; (919) 461-1360 or fax, (919)
461-1416.
PROPOSED FUNDING FOR THE
EMISSION FACTOR DEVELOPMENT
INITIATIVE
The Emission Factor Development Initiative is a new pro-
gram proposed in EPA's FY 1996 budget that would encourage
state and local control agencies to develop emission factors for
processes and sources of clear state and regional interest. This
program, the "Adopt-a-Factor" program, has been proposed
with an initial funding of $4.5 million, to grow annually through
the year 2000. It is proposed to include these funds in Section
103 grant money, and participating states will be required to
provide 5 percent matching funds.
With this program, states can target emission factors from
processes and sources that have been ignored previously be-
cause of resource limitations at the federal level. Whether it
involves criteria pollutants from point sources, hazardous pol-
lutants from area sources, or other regulated mobile source
pollutants, many opportunities for States/Locals are expected
from the proposed program. These agencies may chose to
develop ("adopt") factors from existing data, to obtain addi-
tional data through source testing, or to utilize contracting to
develop an emission factor. Whatever the chosen route, the
state or local agencies will be overseers of the efforts and there-
fore can focus on their own specific needs. This program will
afford agencies the opportunity to actually contribute to the
factor development process, including the widely used final
products such as AP-42 and the FIRE data base.
If this proposed program continues in the budget, the funds
will be available through Section 103 grant programs in FY 1996.
If funds are allocated, your EPA Regional Grants Contact will
be the person to call. For more information on the Adopt-A-
Factor program, contact Jim Southerland at (919) 541-5523. CQ
COSTLY DATA REQUESTS
Karla Smith of Texas Natural Resources Conservation Com-
mission reports that Texas made a study of costs for comply-
ing with emission inventory data requests. There are 2,500
reporting plants in Texas, and their estimates of the cost of
providing compliance data range from $3,000 to $200,000 per
source. The cost per plant averaged $7,500 for a statewide
total of $18,750,000. CO
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EMISSION FACTOR HUMOR
At the recent Air & Waste Management Association Emission Inventory Conference, Jim Southerland concluded a presen-
tation on the "Uses and Misuses of Emission Factors" with the following tongue-in-cheek definitions for emission factors.
"Let me end by quoting an old philosopher who is well versed in emission factor technologies. This person defined "An
Emission Factor" as follows:
'An emission factor is a number which passes as an accurate approximation of emissions and is developed with prolific
fortitude from extremely incomprehensible information and calculated with microscopic precision using extremely vague assump-
tions which are based on debatable figures acquired from inconclusive tests and quite incomplete experiments carried out with
instruments of problematic accuracy by persons of doubtful reliability and rather dubious mentality' (adapted from the definition
of "engineer", University of Tennessee Civil Engineer, 1965).
"However, an equally well-versed authority has made the following observation:
'In the beginning, God created the heavens and the earth. Then, man was created and given dominion over the plants,
animals and minerals on earth. The ten commandments were soon promulgated to regulate man's actions. Shortly thereafter,
emission factors were developed to characterize the impact of man's actions on the
atmospheric environment. These emission factors were canonized in AP-42 and
it was good. The Emission Factor And Inventory Group of the U. S. Environ-
mental Protection Agency is now empowered to maintain and update AP-42,
and it is still good' (Mobley).
"Where you stand on emission factors and inventories often depends
upon where you sit. In any case, it is important to keep the realities and
uncertainties of estimating emissions in mind when faced with the situation
of making the best and most reasonable estimates, and that the reason for
making the estimates be considered heavily in the decision process." C3
RECENT GUEST FROM SOUTH
KOREA
Dr. Yong-Joon Kim, Senior Researcher with the Korea En-
vironmental Technology Research Institute (KETRI) of Seoul
recently spent several days in the United States on a fact-find-
ing trip to prepare for an upcoming emission inventory effort in
his country. He visited EPA, state and local agencies in North
Carolina and California, in addition to Carolina Power and Light
(our local utility company) and several consultants. Dr. Kim
was also able to attend the Air & Waste Management Associa-
tion Emission Inventory Conference in Raleigh. We wish Dr.
Kim well in his ventures and appreciated the opportunity to
assist him in his effort. We hope he will be able to give us an
update and report at the Emission Inventory Conference in No-
vember 1995.
Thanks to Dr. Kim, we now have a copy of AP-42 in hand
that has been translated into Korean. We also have one in
Dutch that was given to us some years ago. If anyone else has
copies of AP-42 that have been translated into other languages,
we would appreciate a copy here at EFIG. Please send others to
lim Southerland, U. S. EPA, MD-14, Research Triangle Park, NC
27711. C3
A&WMA EMISSION INVENTORY
WORKSHOPS
There have now been three emission inventory work-
shops presented by the Air & Waste Management Associa-
tion (A&WMA). The first two were in San Francisco and
Pittsburgh last fall, and the latest ones were in Atlanta in
December and Denver in January. Three faculty members
from the private consultant world prepare and present the
bulk of the sessions; EPA has supported the development of
the information to be presented and has provided on-site
support through either David Misenheimer or Jim
Southerland. These sessions are primarily to introduce the
private sector to the world of emission estimation and emis-
sion inventories, and they are fairly basic in nature.
Most of the sessions have had over 100 attendees, many
of whom have reported that they have gained valuable infor-
mation and a better understanding of the inventory needs
and processes. If your organization would like to see more of
these sessions, please voice your opinion by contacting the
A&WMA. Another two-day workshop is scheduled for
March 6-7 in Chicago. Anyone interested in attending any
future workshops should contact the A&WMA registrar in
Pittsburgh at (412) 232-3444. CQ
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1994 TRENDS REPORT AVAILABLE
The National Air Pollutant Emission Trends, 1900-1993, EPA-454/R-94-027, October 1994, is now available. This year's
report includes emission estimates from 1900 to 1993, with categories re-estimated back to 1985 to reflect the latest data. The
mobile source category (on-road and non-road) has been revised back to 1970 to reflect a consistent methodology through 1993.
The on-road portion is based on vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data from the Federal Highway Administration's highway perfor-
mance monitoring system (HPMS) database (specified by state, vehicle type and roadway type), emission factors calculated with
the MOBILES^ model, state/monthly temperature data from the National Climatic Data Center, and other data obtained from the
Office Of Mobile Sources (OMS). New wildfire data were obtained from the U. S. Forest Service and utility data from the
Department of Energy. Solvent emissions were based on production data from Minerals Yearbook and Current Industrial
Reports. Most other categories were "grown" with the Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) growth factors.
Also included in this year's report are data on greenhouse gases, toxics and international emissions, with newly estimated
emission projections out to 2010. Copies can be obtained from EPA Library Services, (919) 541-2777.
Figure ES-1. Trend in National Emissions. NITROGEN OXIDES. VOLATILE ORGANIC
COMPOUNDS,
1
1
1O-
NO*
voc
S02
PM-10
SULFUR DIOXIDE, (1900 to 1993) and PARTICULATE MATTER ([PM-10]
nonfugitive dust sources; 1940 to 1993)
A A
/f ^\ ~
jT / . '•-^/^V^\,
-/V \ / \,*jr&^-"'
A/V
X v
. —
/V^-- — -.,/"
°C"V/ NO.-—.., - ' "^\
„ . ,-'' PM-10V,
V1.
.....—••-•• • -~-~
1900 1910
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
Figure ES-2. Trend in National Emissions, CARBON MONOXIDE (1940 to 19
FUGITIVE DUST (1985 to 1993), and LEAD (1970 to 1993)
Cwbon
Monoxkta go
and FugWv.
Du*t
En*Mk>na
""*>" 60
abort ton*)
CO — —
Pb -•-•--
FD
^7^\
co>// / \N^ X"xy\-
P"AX
\ ^ ^
\
v.._
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
Year
93),
300
180 LMd
Entofona
(IhouMtd
•hortton*)
120
60
TVends Procedures Document
A procedures document that explains the methodology behind the National Air Pollutant Emission Trends, 1900-1993 is
now available on the CHIEFEBS under the "Inventory Databases" menu item. This document can be downloaded in sections,
depending on the year and topic of interest— Chapter 2 covers 1900-1939, Chapter 3 covers 1940-1984, Chapter 4 covers 1985-
1993, and Chapter 5 covers Lead Methodology. Estimating methods are explained by source category. Hard copies can also be
obtained from Info CHIEF. For more information, contact Sharon Nizich, (919) 541-2825. CO
The CHIEF Newsletter is produced quarterly by the Emission Factor Andlnventory Group, Emissions, Monitoring
And Analysis Division, of EPA's Office Of Air Quality Planning And Standards. Its purpose is to enhance communication
within the emission factor and inventory community by providing new and useful information and by allowing for the
exchange of information between and among its readers. Comments on the Newsletter and articles for inclusion in it
are welcome and should be directed to Emission Factor And Inventory Group (MD 14), US EPA, Research Triangle
Park, NC 27711; telephone (919) 541-5493.
The contents o/The CHIEF Newsletter do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Agency, neither does
the mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
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INFO CHIEFs MOST FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Here are some hot topics with information on each.
AP-42
Q: I need to get a hard copy of AP-42, but when I called GPO, I
was told that they do not have it available. How can I obtain a
copy?
A: We are in the process of revising the AP-42 document and
the new Fifth Edition is expected to be available in Spring 1995.
In the meantime, you can download all current sections and
updates from the CHIEF BBS. These sections can also be
retrieved from Fax CHIEFby calling (919) 541-0548 or -5626
from your fax machine. If you still wish to purchase the hard
copy, there are private companies, such as Environmental Pub-
lications & Information in Dublin, Ohio, (614) 823 -4425, that are
selling copies of AP-42.
CD-ROM
Q: I have heard that AP-42 is available on CD-ROM. How can
I obtain it?
A: We will have a new version of Air CHIEF CD-ROM (ver-
sion 4.0) in Spring 1995 which will be available for purchase
from GPO. Version 3.0 of A ir CHIEFis out of stock and will no
longer be produced in anticipation of the new version. The
new A ir CHIEFwill require Microsoft Window^6 and will in-
clude the entire Fifth edition of AP-42 Volume I, plus the FIRE
database, all 26 Locating And Estimating... documents, the
Registry Of Toxic Effects Of Chemical Substances, and the en-
tire list of Source Classification Codes.
TANKS2
Q: My colleague and I are both working on estimating air
emissions from storage tanks using two separate copies of
the TANKS2 program. How can we combine the data from
both databases into one?
A: Unfortunately, the TANKS2 program only allows for one
database file which will be replaced if you attempt to import a
data file from another copy of the TANKS2 program. Thus,
the TANKS2 program does not support the consolidation of
two separate data sets. However, it is possible to export the
information into another database such as FoxPro'" and com-
bine the data within the database program if you have a good
working knowledge of how to use it. Plans for TANKS ver-
sion3.0, expected to be released in Summer 1995, will address
this shortcoming.
BBS
Q: Every time I try to download AP-42 sections from the
CHIEFEBS, the graphics are distorted. How can I get good
copies of the graphics?
A: Sometimes modems and communication software pack-
ages will distort graphics files when downloading. A useful
alternative for obtaining graphics from AP-42 is the Fax
CHIEF, which transmits all text and graphics for AP-42 Vol-
ume I (Stationary Sources), ea
The Info CHIEFhdp desk phone number is (919) 541-5285.
— More Q&A's in the next issue!—
NEED MORE INFORMATION ABOUT EMISSION ESTIMATION TOOLS?
Complement your training classes and conferences with pamphlets on the Emission Factor And Inventory
Group's Emission Estimation tools. Info CHIEF can provide pamphlets on these topics:
* FIRE » Fox CHIEF
• TANKS2 • CHIEF BBS
• Tools (general information)
These brochures are free to all organizations and may be duplicated as needed. Also, pamphlets will soon be pro-
duced for the Air CflfBEFCD-ROM and EFIG Guidance Documents. For more information about EFIG documents and
informatiott tools, caU/w/oCHBEFat (919)541-5285.
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A lot is happening here, or should I say already happened. We had a successful emission inventory confer-
ence in Raleigh in November; OAQPS has reorganized, including the transformation of the Emission Inventory
Branch into the Emission Factor And Inventory Group; I am no longer a Section Chief (There are no Sections. .
.sigh), and more. We have lost Joe McSorely, Dennis Shipman, Susan Curtis, Anne Pope and Michael Hamlin to
other groups and causes, and have gained Roy Huntley and Tom Pace as members of the Group. We are in the
process of learning about "serf-directed work teams" and are trying to bring some order to that process. Our budget
has been slashed once again, and it remains a disaster area. Needless to say, we are doing a lot of rethinking,
reinventing and prioritizing. We have received some input from you, our "customers", but not much, so we are
trying to place ourselves in our clients' shoes and include their needs with the things we are otherwise on the hook
to deliver. Things may be a bit difficult for a while, but we are sure to come out leaner and meaner and still able to
provide many of the tools and services you have come to expect from us.
It was a bittersweet personal decision for me to choose to exit the management/supervision side of the opera-
tion, but will hopefully give me more time to do "real" work. We will still have team leaders, so the "chief role is not
gone completely, just greatly transformed. If you have general questions related to the AP-42 team, please feel free
to continue to call me or the Info CHIEFhelp desk and support area, (919) 541 -5285. I will continue in a team leader
and coordinator role here.
We have had some delays on the production of the Fifth Edition of AP-42 and related updates of FIRE and the
Air CHIEF CD-ROM. There have been problems and resource difficulties encountered in getting our electronic
files transformed as needed to get the new Fifth Edition formatted so that information in it and FIRE are not in
conflict. We have been making many improvements in internal consistency and uniformity and in restructuring the
entire document, so all of this has bogged us down longer than expected. We hope to finish up this process in
January and be able to "push the buttons" and be ready to send the paper copy to the printer so that it will be
available to you by April 1. The updated FIRE file for toxics is already on the CHIEFBB S, but the criteria pollutant
file can't be generated till January or February, at which time it will be placed on the CHIEFBBS. When the new
electronic version of AP-42 is complete, then the Air CHIEF CD-ROM can be generated and should come out in the
February/March window. Cross your fingers that no more gremlins come out of the woodwork to mess up this
process. We are trying hard to get these all in sync and to make much needed improvements and we hope that you
will bear with us during these delays. CD
—Jim Southerland
AND THE WINNER Is...
Congratulations are in order forthe Delaware Air Qual-
ity Management Section Program for being the only State
agency in the United States to have perfect agreement
between its 1990 O3/CO SIP Emission Inventory data in
hard copy submittals and the data in AIRS, Althoughthis
has been an objective of the ERA'S emission inventory
program since the passage of (he Clean Air Act Amend-
ments of 1990, it has been a difficult goal to achieve for
most states. The Emission Factor And Inventory Group
would like to thank theDelaware Air Quality Management
Section Program for their hard work and support of the
SIP Emission Inventory Data program, Q=J
EPA DIRECTORY AVAILABLE
FROM GPO
Be the first on your block to own the U. S. EPA's
645-page directory, Access EPA, which lists agency
information services, resources, and other helpful tid-
bits concerning public access to the EPA organization.
You can buy this invaluable reference tool for $24 from
the Government Printing Office (GPO), 701N. Capitol
Street NW, Washington, DC 20401, or phone (202) 783-
3 23 8. For those who prefer traveling on the informa-
tion superhighway, you can take advantage of free on-
line computer access to the directory (data base or text
flle)bydiaungviamodem(919)549^)720, £Q
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NEW PROJECTION SOFTWARE TOOLS
By Sue Kimbrough
Emissions And Modeling Branch, Air And Energy Engineering Research Laboratory,
Office Of Research And Development
Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS)
Section 182(e)(2)(A) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of
1990 (CAAA) require that extreme, severe, serious, and multi-
state moderate ozone nonattainment areas use photochemical
grid modeling to demonstrate future attainment of the National
Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for Ozone. Section
182(b)(l)(A) of the amendments requires that these extreme, se-
vere, serious, and moderate ozone nonattainment areas submit
Rate-Of-Progress (ROP) plans demonstrating a 15% reduction in
emissions from 1990 to 1996. In addition, the ROP plans (i. e.,
inventories) for extreme, severe, and serious areas must include
demonstration of a 3% annual reduction (averaged over 3 years)
from 1996 until attainment is achieved [Section 182(c)(2)(B)]. A
key component of these ROP inventories and photochemical
grid modeling demonstrations will be the development
of credible growth factors for the existing invento-
ries. Credible growth factors will require accurate
forecasts of both economic variables and the
activities associated with them. In order to meet
these requirements, the Economic Growth
Analysis System (EGAS) has been de-
signed and developed.
EGAS is a menu-driven system
that guides the user through a series
of screens that collect information for
adapting the model to the user's needs. User
input is limited to selecting menu items and to
setting parameters by entering data in text boxes.
To reduce both the number and run time of
the models in EGAS, eight models were developed.
Separate models were developed for EPA Regions 1,2 & 3,4,5,6,
7,8 & 10, and 9. Each of the eight models includes all extreme,
severe, serious, and multi-state moderate areas, as well as each
state and partial state in a region.
The EGAS modeling system contains three tiers. Tier 1 in-
cludes available national economic forecasts that are used to
drive the regional economic models. Tier 2 includes regional
economic models for Urban Airshed Model modeling areas and
for states in the Regional Oxidant Modeling regions. Tier 3 esti-
mates fuel consumption, physical output, and vehicle miles trav-
eled (VMT), based on Tier 2's regional economic forecasts. The
tiers must be sequentially executed, since data are created by,
and passed from, early tiers for transfer to later tiers. The three-
tier structure of EGAS allows the user flexibility in modeling.
While some tiers must be run before proceeding to later tiers, the
system allows the models to be rerun at the user's discretion. For
example, a user may run a variety of national models before
performing regional modeling on the last national model run.
The national Regional Economic Models Inc. model
(REMI) allows the user to create a national-level growth pro-
jection. It is Tier 1 of the three-part process of creating esti-
mated growth factors, and it generates data to drive the re-
gional REMI Model (Tier 2). This tier may be rerun any num-
ber of times before proceeding to Tier 2. Two national fore-
casts of output, by industry, are available for the user from
the Bureau Of Labor Statistics and Wharton Econometric Fore-
casting Associates.
The regional REMI Model allows the user to develop a
regional growth simulation. This is Tier 2 of the
three-part process of creating estimated growth
factors. It generates data to drive the
Growth Factor Module (Tier 3). In the
EGAS model, more than 100 regular eco-
nomic policy variables, translator vari-
ables, and population variables can be
adjusted. Changing these variables al-
lows the user to simulate the economic
effects of anticipated changes in gov-
ernment policy, markets, or other
exogenous aspects of the regional
economy. These variables are ac-
cessed from the REMI EDFS-14
model, and they offer scenarios for changes
in tax rates (corporate, equipment, invest-
ment, personal income, and property), costs
(in- eluding relative production, import, and export),
wage rate, employment transfer payments, purchasing
power, and final demand. This tier may be rerun any number
of times before proceeding to Tier 3.
The Growth Factor Module, where growth factors are
generated and written to files in the "\EGAS" subdirectory, is
Tier 3. This module translates economic activity level changes
from the most recent regional forecast into growth factors for
physical output, fuel consumption, and VMT. These growth
factors will be developed for two-, three-, and four-digit Stan-
dard Industrial Classification (SIC) levels, depending on avail-
able data for developing and disaggregating the factors.
These SIC-level growth factors will be matched with Source
Classification Codes (SCC). The user is given a choice of file
formats, either as the Emissions Preprocessor System (EPS)
or as an ASCII text file. The file is output by year, county
level, and SCC.
(Cont. on p. 5)
8
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(Cont.fromp. 4)
EGAS Version 2.0 is currently available. The reference
manual (EPA-600/R-94-139a) and user's guide (EPA-600/R-94-
139b) are both available for downloaded from the CH/EFBul-
letin Board System (BBS). The programfiles may be obtained
by calling SueKimbrough at EPA, (919) 541-2612.
Multiple Projections System (MPS)
The CAAAs call for Reasonable Further Progress (RFP)
inventories to be submitted to the Agency for the purpose of
demonstrating strategies by which a 15% emission reduction
in volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions will be achieved
by 1996 in extreme, severe, serious, and moderate ozone
nonattainment areas. Also, extreme, severe, and serious areas
must demonstrate at least a 3% annual average reduction be-
ginning in 1996 and continuing thereafter until attainment is
achieved. These RFP inventories are currently termed Rate Of
Progress (ROP) inventories. In order to meet Sections 182(b)(l)
and 182(c)(2) requirements, state/local agencies would benefit
from a computer system capable of both performing "what-if
scenario analysis" and reporting the final results (i. e., ROP
inventory) to EPA through AIRS. This system has been based
upon the 3% RFP Tracking System developed in FY 92/FY 93.
The 3% RFP Tracking System is a Microsoft Window/P appli-
cation, and enhancements to convert the 3% RFP Tracking
System to a Multiple Projections System (MPS) have contin-
ued to be within the framework of a Windows® application.
The system will support ROP inventories for ozone and carbon
monoxide (CO) and thus will contain data for VOC, oxides of
nitrogen (NOX), and CO. The most significant change from the
original 3% RFP Tracking System to the MPS is the ability to
submit a "final" projection emissions inventory in the format
required by the AIRS Facility Subsystem (AFS) and the AIRS
Area And Mobile Source Subsystem (AMS).
System Requirements - The prototype MPS was devel-
oped using Superbase 4, a Microsoft Windows® data base
package that can be compiled and distributed as a stand-alone
product. The MPS user will be referred to the Microsoft Win-
dows* manual for information on general operating procedures.
Additionally, a computer with a 386SX or better microproces-
sor is suggested as the platform on which to run the prototype.
Because the system was developed using a Windows-based
product, it has been configured to run entirely using a mouse
to point and click on various buttons to perform commands or
functions. However, all functions can also be accessed by the
keyboard. A hard disk drive is required to store all input and
output data files. Disk space required will depend on the num-
ber and size of geographic areas to be studied.
One advantage of developing the system using a Win-
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HEADQUARTERS INVENTORY CONTACTS
WINTER 1995
EMISSION FACTORS
i.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
AP-42 Chapter
External Combustion
Solid Waste Disposal
Internal Combustion
Evaporation Loss Sources
Chemical Process Industry
Organics
Inorganics
Food And Agricultural Industry
Metallurgical Industry
Mineral Products Industry
Petroleum Industry
Wood Products Industry
Miscellaneous Sources
Storage Of Organic Liquids
Lead
General information, Newsletter,
Bulletin Board, FIRE, SPECIATE,
Air CHIEF CD, Publications,
Fax CHIEF
Contact
Roy Huntley
Ron Myers
Roy Huntley
Ron Ryan
Dennis Beauregard
Ron Myers
Dallas Safriet
Ron Myers
Ron Myers
Ron Ryan
Dallas Safriet
Ron Myers
Dennis Beauregard
Ron Myers
Info CHIEF
Telephone
(919) 541-1060
(919) 541-5407
(919) 541-1060
(919) 541-4330
(919)541-5512
(919) 541-5407
(919) 541-5371
(919) 541-5407
(919) 541-5407
(919) 541-4330
(919) 541-5371
(919) 541-5407
(919)541-5512
(919) 541-5407
(919)541-5285
EMISSION INVENTORIES
1990 O3/CO SIP Inventory Status
O3/CO Periodic Inventories
Biogenic Inventories
Emission Statements
PM-10/Lead Inventories
Toxics Inventories
Emission Trends
Emission Projections
Quality Assurance
AIRS Area And Mobile Subsystem (AMS)
AIRS Facility Subsystem (AFS)
PM-10 SIPS
OAQPS/AQSSD
Sharon Nizich
BillKuykendal
Steve Bromberg
Mary Ann Warner
Bill Kuykendal
Dennis Beauregard
Sharon Nizich
Mary Ann Warner
Bill Kuykendal
Lee Tooly
Steve Bromberg
Robin Dunkins
(919) 541-2825
(919) 541-5372
(919) 541-1000
(919) 541-1192
(919) 541-5372
(919) 541-5512
(919) 541-2825
(919) 541-1192
(919) 541-5372
(919) 541-5292
(919) 541-1000
(919) 541-5335
03/CO SIPS
OAQPS/AQSSD
Office Of Mobile Sources
Lead SIPS
OAQPS/AQMD
Tom Helms
Mark Wolcott
Laura McKelvey
(919) 541-5527
(313) 668-4219
(919) 541-5497
10
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REGIONAL OFFICE INVENTORY CONTACTS
WINTER 1995
— PM-10 —
Region I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
vm
IX
X
— 0/CO-
I
II
III
rv
V
VI
vn
vni
IX
X
— Air Toxics —
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
vn
vm
IX
X
— Lead —
I
II
in
IV
V
VI
VII
vin
IX
X
Contact
Matt Cairns
Kristeen Gaffney
Vacant
Randy Terry
John Summerhays
Mark Sather
Lisa Haugen
Dale Wells
Morris Goldberg
Renby Ramos
Bob McConnell
Henry Feingersh
Raymond Forde
Joey LeVasseur/Bill Denman
Ed Doty/Bill Jones/
Charles Hatten
Herb Sherrow
Royan Teter
Tim Russ
Morris Goldberg
Christi Lee/Stephanie Cooper/
Montel Livingston
Janet Beloin
Umesh Dholakia
Vacant
Becky Allenbach
Bruce Varner
Tom Driscoll
Wayne Kaiser
Cory Potash
Pam Tsai/Regina Spindler
Chris Hall
Bob Judge
Kirk Wieber
David Arnold
Kim Bingham
Roseanne Lindsey (TL, IN)
Christos Panos (MI, WI)
John Summerhays (OH, MM)
Mick Cote
Josh Tapp
Laurie Ostrand
Morris Goldberg/Larry Biland
Renby Ramos
Telephone
(617) 565-4982
(212)264-8722
(404) 347-3555 ext.42 12
(312)886-6067
(214)665-7258
(913)551-7877
(303)293-0957
(415)744-1296
(206)553-6510
(617)565-3250
(212) 264-7669
(215)597-8239
(404) 347-3555 ext. 4208
(312)886-6057/6058
(312)886-6031
(214)665-7237
(913)551-7609
(303)293-1814
(415)744-1296
(206)553-1814/6917
(206)553-0180
(617) 565-2734
(212) 264-6676
(404) 347-3555 ext.4223
(312)886-6793
(214)665-7549
(913)551-7603
(303)294-1886
(415)744-1116/1251
(206) 553-1949
(617) 565-3233
(212)264-5996
(215)597-1556
(404) 347-3555 ext. 4195
(312)353-1151
(312)353-8328
(312)886-6067
(214)665-7219
(913)551-7606
(303) 294-1757
(415)744-1296/1121
(206)553-6510
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EFIG NEEDS A NEW LOGO!
We are trying to design a new logo for the Emission Factor And Inventory Group, and we could use your
help. Here are a few ideas that we've created so far. Give us your input on these, or send your own design to
U. S. EPA, MD-14, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711.
Emission Factor and Inventory Group
Emission Factor And Inventory Group
The CHIEF Newsletter
Volume VI, No. 1
Winter 1995
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