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MICROMANPOWER PLANNING IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR
by
J. Kenneth Davies
and Colin Wright
Prepared for Office of Water Programs Operations
of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Pursuant to Contract No. 68-01-22*12
U.S. Environmental Protectton Agency
Region V, Library
230 South Dearborn Street
r'' -o. Illinois 60604
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DISCRIMINATION PROHIBITED — Title VI of the
Civil Rights Act of 1964 states: "No person
in the United States shall, on the ground of
race, color, or national origin, be excluded
from participation in, be denied the benefits
of, or be subjected to discrimination under
any program or activity receiving Federal
financial assistance." Therefore, the man-
power planning programs within the Office of
Water Programs and Operations of the Environ-
mental Protection Agency and the Division of
Manpower Development and Training, Bureau of
Adult, Vocational and Technical Education of
the U.S. Office of Education, must be operated
in compliance with this law.
The project reported herein was performed pur-
suant to Contract No. 68-01-2242 from the Man-
power Development Staff, Office of Water Pro-
grams Operation, U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, which in turn was supported by an
inter-agency grant from the Division of Man-
power Development and Training, Bureau of
Adult, Vocational and Technical Education of
the U.S. Office of Education. The opinions
expressed, however, do not necessarily reflect
the position or policy of the Environmental
Protection Agency or the Office of Education,
and no official endorsement by the Environmental
Protection Agency or the Office of Education
should be inferred.
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CONTENTS
Preface page vii
Part I. Manpower Planning Institutions
1 Introduction: An Overview of Manpower Planning
2 Development of Manpower Planning
Some Functions of Manpower Planning 2-1
Universal Experience in Manpower Planning 2-2
Typology of Manpower Planning 2-5
Micromanpower Planning 2-20
3 The Economics of the Labor Market
A Market Economy 3-2
Operation of the Labor Market 3-5
The Aggregate Labor Market 3-6
Microlabor Markets 3-13
The Interaction of Supply and Demand 3-21
Forecasting and Meeting Changes in
Supply or Demand 3-25
The Internal Labor Market 3-2?
Summary 3-34
4 Human Resource Development Institutions
Role of the Micromanpower Planner in
Human Resource Development 4-2
The Education System 4-3
Federal Role in Education 4-18
The Employment Service System and the U.S.
Department of Labor 4-21
National Manpower Programs 4-28
Vocational Counseling 4-35
A Model for Cooperative Human Resource Development
Selected References 4-40
4-37
Manpower Training in the Public Sector
The History of Public Sector Training Efforts
A Training Response 5-3
Alternative Training Methodologies 5-19
Public Personnel Administration
The Federal System 6-1
State and Local Personnel Systems 6-7
Intergovernmental Relationships 6-12
Meaning of a "Merit System" 6-17
5-1
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CONTENTS (cont.)
Roles and. Responsibilities of State
Personnel Offices 6-19
Relations Between the Central Personnel Office and
the Operating Agency Personnel Office 6-24
Coordination and Communication 6-25
Contemporary Wages in the Public Sector 6-27
Organization of Manpower Planning in the
Federal Public Sector 6-29
Human Engineering
System Effectiveness 7-4
Occupational Definition and Qualifications Profile 7-18
Staffing Guide 7-27
Certification Requirements 7-31
Summary 7-34
Selected. References 7-35
Public Sector Unionism
Legal and Institutional Developments 8-1
Beginning of Collective Bargaining 8-3
Union Organization at the State and Local Levels 8-13
A Model Public Sector Bill 8-18
Union Security and Union Dues 8-27
Part II. A Manpower Planning System
9 Planning: A Review of the Theory
What is Planning? 9-2
Types of Planning 9-H
Planning Process 9-l4
Summary 9-24
Selected References 9-30
10 Micromanpower Planning Process: The Informal Theory
The Manpower Planning Function within the Agency 10-2
Planning Objectives: Their Determination
and Satisfaction 10-11
Summary 10-28
Selected References 10-32
11 Description of the Organization
Describe the Manpower Dimensions of the Organization 11-1
Determine the Organization's Objectives 11-29
Summary 11-37
Selected References 11-39
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CONTENTS (cont.)
12 Measurement of Current Employment Characteristics
Inventory of Current Personnel 12-1
Dynamic Aspects of Employment: Terminations
and Accessions 12-1*1
Manpower Data Collection 12-17
Alternative Measures of Employment 12-28
Shortfalls and Shortfall Rates 12-29
Terminations and Accessions and Their Rates 12-32
Disaggregated Tables 12-33
Summary 12-40
Supplementary Information: Sampling Techniques 12-41
Selected References 12-44
13 Forecasting Future Employment Characteristics
Forecasts of Recommended Employment 13-3
Use of Staffing Guides 13-7
Alternative Bases for Forecasting
Future Employment 13-17
Supplementary Information 13-33
Selected References 13-44
14 Identification and Analysis of Manpower Problems
Determination of Manpower Problems 14-1
Potential Causes of Improper Operation
and Maintenance 14-5
Potential Causes of Excessive Costs 14-24
Summary 14-39
Selected References 14-41
15 Development of Manpower Programs
Preparation of a Manpower Plan 15-2
Effectiveness of Manpower Programs 15-4
Relationship of Objectives and Problem Areas 15-6
Further Issues in the Analysis of the
Manpower Planning Problem 15-8
General Problem Areas for Manpower Programs 15-15
Annual Manpower Report 15-18
Supplementary Information: Some Aspects of
the Logic of Decision Making 15-34
Management Information Systems and Decision Making 15-52
Selected References 15-57
16 Performance Control
The Manpower Planning System 16-1
Monitoring and Evaluating the Planning Process 16-lf
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CONTENTS (cont.)
Quantification of Manpower Objectives 16-20
Establishing a Corrective System 16-24
Selected References 16-33
17 Implementation of a Manpower Planning System
Political and Interpersonal Aspects
of Implementation 17-1
Technical Aspects of Implementation 17-7
Manpower Planning Demonstration Projects 17-11
Manpower Planning Staff 17-20
A Final Word 17-29
Conclusion 17-31
Selected References 17-33
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PREFACE
This book attempts to establish a systematic method for doing
the type of manpower planning that is often required of organizations
within the public sector of our economy. Both the institutional and
technical aspects of manpower planning are developed. The level of
development has been determined by the nature of certain presumed con-
straints. It was assumed that those individuals most likely to use
such a book as we have produced, in fulfilling their governmental
assignments:
1. Will be substantially limited in the resources available
to them
2. Will not be uniform in their backgrounds and will thus bring
different skills and understandings, as well as preconceptions,
to their jobs
3. Will not, in many instances, be full-time manpower planners
but will have other responsibilities
Because of these assumptions, our approach is intended as a
relatively simple one. It is hoped that the approach is straightforward
and free of demands for the elaborate manipulation of data and use
of sophisticated analytical techniques. The book is self-contained
and moves from the general to the specific. Chapter 1 presents an
overview of manpower planning, while chapter 2 reviews the typology
an-I history of the field. This material is presented upon the assumption
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that the public micromanpower planner, the planner doing planning
for a particular public agency, needs a "feel" for this newly emerging
discipline.
In chapters 3 through 8, we present institutional background
material with which the micromanpower planner must become familiar
if his planning is to be effective. We intend these chapters to be
introductory rather than exhaustive, intending only to introduce the
manpower planner to the most essential fields of understanding. Greater
detail will need to be added as the manpower planner develops greater
expertise. To aid in this endeavor we have appended a list of suggested
readings to each chapter.
In chapter 3 we examine the economics of the labor market. We
present the basic structure of the labor market within a market-
oriented economic system, as well as some of the principles upon which
labor markets operate. As the manpower planner will be operating
within such a system, and will thereby be affected by it, he or she
should understand its operation. In chapter 4 we review the human
resource development system of the United States. It Is this system
that the micromanpower planner will use for meeting much of the man-
power needs of the agency. In chapters 5 through 7, we provide in
detail some of the specifics of that system — manpower training,
personnel administration, and human engineering. In chapter 8 we review
the expanding role of labor unions and collective bargaining in the
public sector and how they can relate to the functioning of the man-
power planner.
With chapter 9 we begin a different section of the book. We move
from the general and institutional framework to a more specific and
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analytical one. In chapter 9 we review some principles of general
planning theory. With chapter 10 another step is taken toward the
specifics of manpower planning, providing the theoretical under-
pinnings of this genre of planning. In chapters 11 through 16, we
develop the specifics of a system of micromanpower planning in the
public sector. First is presented the outline of a data system.
Without a well-conceived system for the collection and analysis of
data, manpower planning would be little more than crystal ball gazing.
Some instruction on how these data may be used to identify and analyze
current and potential manpower problems is provided. As the problems
discovered or anticipated will vary from agency to agency, no attempt
will be made to show how those identified problems can be specifically
resolved. This must be left to the ingenuity of the manpower planner,
assisted by training and personnel management experts. In chapter 16
we outline a system of performance control which includes the monitor-
ing and evaluating of programs, including the planning itself, with
a continuous feedback mechanism so that steps can be taken to correct
any deficiencies. In chapter 17 we discuss several issues related
to the implementation of a manpower planning system within a public
sector organization.
This book has been written by two economists — one who specializes
in labor problems and manpower economics and the other in public sector
issues — though many other individuals have contributed to its develop-
ment . Members of the manpower development staff of the Office of
Water Program Operations in the Environmental Protection Agency (OWPO-
EPA) have provided invaluable assistance. This agency was given the
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responsibility of providing for the increased need for manpower
that was expected to occur as a result of EPA programs to expand
and improve wastewater treatment facilities. They realized, before
federal law formally encouraged it, that manpower planning must take
place not only in Washington, but also in federal regional offices
as well as at the state and local levels of government. A program
was initiated that would develop an appreciation for, as well as the
initial, though elementary, ability to engage in, manpower planning
at all levels of government. Morton Ettelstein, of the manpower
development and training staff of OWPO, was the director of these
various activities and continues to be an important force for develop-
ing manpower planning within the environmental fields. He has been
a source of guidance and criticism in the development of this volume
and has served as a sounding post for our various ideas. He has
consistently brought us from the rarefied academic air (with limited
success, he has often asserted) to the "nuts and bolts" level of
application.
In this volume we bring together two manuals used in OWPO-EPA-
sponsored manpower workshops and add several chapters containing
approaches and materials not previously included but pertinent to
the micromanpower planning process. We generalize the manpower plan-
ning process so as to apply to other areas in which public manpower
planning is undertaken. What we have presented is an elementary and
preliminary excursion into public sector micromanpower planning.
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1.
INTRODUCTION: AN OVERVIEW OF
MANPOWER PLANNING
Manpower planning is a process the ultimate goal of which is to
ensure that the right number and right kind of people are at the right
place at the right time doing those things for which they are eco-
nomically most useful (Vetter, 1964). Attaining this goal (or ob-
jective) requires the simultaneous satisfaction of its various
components or subsidiary objectives. In order to satisfy these
objectives the manpower planner must develop the capability to success-
fully engage in a variety of related tasks. He or she must have the
ability to translate an organization's general objectives into its
manpower implications, a capability for measuring current and fore-
casting future manpower requirements, an ability for analyzing present
and future manpower conditions, the capacity to Identify existing
and incipient manpower problems, and the expertise to develop programs
to eliminate or ameliorate problem areas while maintaining well-
functioning existing operations.
Manpower planning is required at all times. It is not a process
that is adopted only when the labor market mechanism fails. Organiza-
tions operating in well-functioning labor markets must also engage
in manpower planning. The emphasis may differ among organizations
according to the type of labor market conditions they usually experience,
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but some form of planning will nevertheless exist. At one extreme,
the decision to engage in no formal planning, other than hiring and
firing as the need arises, is actually an informal plan to subject
the organization completely to the functioning of the external labor
market — whether for good or ill. When confronted with a poorly
functioning external labor market, the manpower planner will find
that different emphases will often arise. Among these will be the
greater attention given to the establishment of, or improvement in,
an internal labor market. Such an emphasis would imply an increased
allocation of the organization's resources for training programs and
the formation of a viable career ladders system within the organiza-
tion. These activities will further require that the organization
determine more carefully what its current and future manpower and
training needs are most likely to be.
Manpower planning for a specific organization is related to the
organization's overall plans and objectives. The present and expected
future activities of the organization require manpower for their
completion. How efficiently such activities are pursued will depend
in large measure upon the manpower employed. It is an important
function of manpower planning to provide for the determination of
the appropriate manpower requirements and to plan to meet them. This
requires that the manpower implications of the organization's ob-
jectives be translated, wherever possible, into measurable or opera-
tional terms.
Changes in an organization's objectives and activities will in
general involve not only changes in the level of required manpower
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but also in its composition. The type of work to be done must be
identified and translated into particular occupational structures.
Manpower planners, though not necessarily doing this work themselves,
must see that it is done. The outcome of these activities will be
information on such matters as the size, occupational makeup, skill
level, and the spatial and temporal deployment of the organization's
manpower requirements.
Manpower planners will need to measure current employment (or
staffing) and its various characteristics and estimate the composi-
tion of future employment needs. Among those characteristics with
which they should be concerned, in addition to levels of current and
expected future employment, are such items as quits, vacancies, retire-
ments, and wage levels. Planners will need to determine whether
current employment or staffing is satisfactory and thus equal to current
manpower requirements. They must determine reasons and offer remedies
for any deficiencies in employment. They will be required to determine
what special provisions, if any, will be required to ensure that
future employment will at least equal future manpower requirements.
A considerable amount of the manpower planners' time will be
spent in determining what specific manpower problems their organizations
are confronted with. How successful they are in this endeavor will
depend upon the analytical skills they command. They will also need
to develop, in cooperation with other members of the organization's
staff, programs designed for the elimination or amelioration of specific
manpower problems. If shortfalls between expected employment and
forecasted manpower requirements exist, for example, they will need
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to develop recruitment and retention programs to eliminate shortfalls.
If the organization's work is inefficiently done, they may have to
call for the introduction of new training programs or improved methods
for using current staff.
The results of these various activities will be presented to
those within the management of the organization to whom the manpower
planners must report and to those who will use such information in
the completion of their own work. On the one hand, the planners must
report to management on how well they are performing their tasks and
present an assessment of their own manpower needs; while on the other
hand, they must provide written reports to those who are engaged in
recruiting new employees and improving the skill levels of existing
employees. A well-conceived manpower report will contain the follow-
ing information:
1. An articulation of general organization objectives,
accompanied by their translation into manpower implications
2. A display of all places where work is done within the
organization
3. A list of job descriptions for all occupations within the
organization
4. Measurements of current employment characteristics, including
such measures as level of employment by occupation; level
of manpower requirements; vacancies in budgeted employment;
rates of such items as quits, transfers, and separations;
and levels of wages
5. Forecasts of future employment characteristics
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6. Analysis of manpower data for the identification of existing
and potential manpower problems
7. The development of plans for the elimination or amelioration
of these manpower problems
8. A numerical display of specific training needs
9. Description of how the manpower planning process has been
changing (improving) over time
In brief, manpower planners will need to know the business of
the organization for which they are planning, to translate the general
objectives of their corporations into specific manpower objectives,
measure current and forecast expected future employment characteristics,
determine the presence or potential presence of and provide for the
remedy of possible manpower problems, and develop an ongoing system
that monitors the planning process and provides for its continuous
improvement.
In addition to these in-house tasks, manpower planners must
become familiar with, and develop a working arrangement with, various
public and private institutions that can assist them In their various
manpower efforts. This familiarity will enable manpower planners to
enlist outside assistance wherever it will serve to the advantage of
the organization for which manpower planning is being done. In addi-
tion, they can help in the development of other agencies and institu-
tions so that assistance from these entities will be of the greatest
possible value.
Illustrative of these agencies and institutions are the various
elements of the educational and training establishment, both public
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and private. The extent to which these can be relied upon to prepare
potential employees, or assist in the upgrading of current employees,
will have a great bearing upon the planner's effectiveness. Another
especially important area consists of the employment agencies —
public and private. Their acquaintance with the various types of
labor supply can be of inestimable assistance in the acquisition of
needed manpower. A third area of importance to the manpower planner
consists of labor unions and employee associations. While it is true
that these are primarily interested in serving their particular
clientele, frequently their interests merge with those of an organiza-
tion doing manpower planning. Furthermore, cooperation is often a
better approach than conflict.
The fourth area which the manpower planner should cultivate con-
sists of the relevant industry associations. Manpower planning efforts
can be assisted by an industrial association set up to handle problems
characteristic of the industry as a whole. The fifth area consists
of the rapidly growing professional field of manpower planning. Contact
with the growing group of professional manpower planners can help
strengthen the theoretical as well as "how to do it" capabilities
of a manpower planner.
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2.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MANPOWER PLANNING
Manpower planning, as a field requiring professional expertise,
is a relatively new development. It is largely a product of the 1960s
and '70s which has generated a new profession — that of the manpower
planner. This is not to say that elements of manpower planning have
not existed for many decades. Education, an essential element of
manpower planning, has of course been planned and implemented to some
degree almost since the founding of the nation. Skills training, large-
ly a product of the twentieth century, is nevertheless a half-century
old. Personnel administration and human engineering have likewise
been existent for most of this century. However, these efforts were
largely uncoordinated and sometimes even counterproductive to meeting
the needs of the society and the economy. In the 1960s, economic and
social philosophers came to the realization that if the nation was to
meet the needs delinated by the American people — that of stable but
continuous economic growth, providing jobs for our growing population
and with adequate consideration to the quality of our environment —
the development of human resources would need coordinated planning.
From this perceived need, manpower planning has emerged.
SOME FUNCTIONS OF MANPOWER PLANNING
Just as modern management practice demands planning in the use
of natural resources, the development of a capital structure, market
expansion, and positive labor relations, so also does it require the
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planned use of its manpower inputs. The use of the term "manpower"
may be a little misleading. As commonly used, it means the use of human
resources and is not limited as to sex or as to skill or professional
level. The use of the term "planning" infers the consideration of the
future in today's activities. No manpower planner can plan in a his-
toric or futuristic vacuum. Account must be taken of what has taken
place in the past, what is presently taking place, and because the future
is unknown, what is most likely, among several alternatives, to take
place in the future. The manpower planner must evaluate past perform-
ance to know what has taken place, monitor ongoing programs to know
what is taking place, and make forecasts of possible future conditions
and events to estimate what is likely to take place. Once tentative
judgments have been made as to what may take place in the future, the
manpower planner can identify those events which may cause problems and
offer alternative plans for resolving them. Even in the unlikely case
of anticipating no "problems," the manpower planner should be constantly
involved in improving the use of manpower.
UNIVERSAL EXPERIENCE IN MANPOWER PLANNING
No single concern has more generally permeated the full range
of economic and social activities throughout the world over the past two
or three decades than the concern for manpower as a human resource.
There are many reasons for this concern. Government policies aimed
at maintaining or achieving full or high levels of employment have
become a political imperative in every industrial democracy. In an
industrial society the majority is dependent upon their income from
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productive activity, while in a democratic society the majority of
citizens will demand that the government meet those needs they cannot
meet themselves. Job creation is high on the list of such needs. In
addition, because inflation is a major obstacle to the achievement
of full employment and diminishes the purchasing power of incomes, nations
pursuing the .goal of controlling inflation must train and upgrade their
workers and improve their labor markets to reduce the inflationary im-
pact of government employment policy. As advanced societies meet more
and more of their basic needs for goods, the emphasis of consumer demand
shifts toward the more labor-intensive services. In the capital-goods
sector, the technology becomes more developed and requires more advanced
human inputs from trained minds and hands. Warfare tends to demand
and absorb the best technical manpower. With more and more people
living closer and closer together, served by more and more technology,
the complexities of life demand more human effort in planning, control,
and remediation. Meantime, those countries in search of modernity
must pursue the same excellence in human resources, leaping over those
years when concern with the development of capital and natural resources
was dominant.
To show the universality of national manpower planning, a dis-
cussion of a few international examples will be enlightening. The nature
and objectives of the economic and political environment. Manpower
policies that are developed in such countries will reflect these
differences.
Manpower planning in western and northern Europe is similar to
that in the United States in having as its major objective the social
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welfare of wage-earning families. Subsidiary, but important to this
objective, is the reduction in inflationary pressure induced by a policy
of maintaining full or nearly full employment. The immediate goal of
such planning is to provide a job for all who desire it — a goal made
possible by the rise of the working class to political power. The need
for adopting such a goal comes about in part because of maladjustments
existing in the marketplace for which corrections must be made. The
achieving of this goal is made easier by the small-size, population
homogeneity, ideological commitment, and low birthrate of the countries
involved.
The objective of manpower planning in the Soviet Union is the
efficient use of a scarce economic resource — manpower — and is an
integral part of their national economic plans. The U.S.S.R. still
faces labor shortages because of the great population losses during
World War II, yet its economic development plans require dispersal of
population and manpower over a vast expanse of territory. Soviet
policies provide incentives for workers to move to undesirable locations
and to work at "productive" (goods-producing) rather than "unproductive"
(service) jobs. Despite its reputation for compulsion, the Soviet Union
seems to have given up most of the various forms of compulsion it once
used and now relies primarily on monetary incentives in its manpower
programming. Compulsion, however, remains as the ultimate tool of man-
power policy and is used when needed.
Japanese manpower planning is dedicated to the maximum use of the
labor force and is made necessary by the existence of rapid economic
growth, a reduced birthrate (induced by a vigorous program of birth
control), and a paternalistic employment system. Numerous policies and
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programs have been instituted to increase the labor force through
increased participation of women, older workers, and rural residents.
In contrast to these activities in developed countries, the
developing agrarian nations find themselves in the quandary of too
few educated and trained workers and too many uneducated and untrained
citizens. Their manpower plans usually contain programs for the
development of rudimentary school systems designed to increase literacy.
They also have programs either to send their nationals abroad for certain
education or training or to attract citizens from other countries to
provide the needed initial cadre of entrepreneurs, managers, engineers,
technicians, and teachers.
TYPOLOGY OF MANPOWER PLANNING
Four types or levels of manpower planning have emerged within the
United States, each with its own role, objectives and techniques:
(1) national macromanpower planning to determine the levels of economic
growth necessary to achieve employment targets or to fill the human
resource needs for meeting national goals, (2) national manpower
program planning for administration of national programs designed to
remedy the problems of special groups of persons, (3) area labor
market manpower planning to identify contemporary and future manpower
problems of individual area labor markets, and (4) micromanpower plan-
ning for the specialized needs of private business firms, employer
associations, employee associations, and public agencies. Examples
of each will better illustrate the role and techniques of the manpower
planner in modern society.
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Macromanpower Planning
An oversimplified version of national macromanpower planning
would include: (1) forecasting the size of the labor force in the
following years, (2) estimating the level of economic production —
gross national product (GNP) — likely to occur without policy measure
changes, (3) estimating the level of employment likely to be generated
by that GNP, (4) deciding upon an employment target, and (5) devising
policies, consistent with other economic and social goals, to reach
that target.
To illustrate these five steps, we introduce a simple example.
Let us assume that the size of the labor force (those employed plus
those seeking employment) next year is to be 97,000,000 persons.
Let us now suppose that the estimate of the GNP next year is $1,500
billion and that this level of GNP will generate employment for
91,200,000 persons, which is 9^ percent of the projected labor force.
If it were now assumed that 95 percent employment of the labor force
is the full or at least optimal employment level, implying employment
for 92,200,000, an unemployment gap of 1,000,000 people would exist,
and steps would then be suggested to eliminate this gap.
Macromanpower planners have several tools for reducing unemploy-
ment. One set of tools is "fiscal policy," the manipulation of taxes
and government spending, either automatically or by discretion. The
reduction of taxes will usually increase the money people have to
spend, and if they so respond, will increase private purchases and
production and therefore employment. The increase of government
spending results in increased production and consequently increased
employment. Either of these two actions, all others remaining constant,
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will result in an Increase In the national debt. The use of the
first, a decrease in taxes, bolsters the private economy, while the
increase of government spending increases the role of government —
at the national, state, or local level (depending on who does the
spending).
The other major set of tools is "monetary policy." Most mon-
etary policy is engaged in by the federal reserve system and consists
of the manipulation of the money supply, through the credit system. To
increase employment, the federal reserve officials can stimulate the
creation of credit, which will give people more money to spend, stim-
ulating production and therefore employment. This action results in an
increase of private debt,
It is now generally conceded that the United States can attain
any level of employment it wants. However, in accomplishing this, the
American public insists on price stability and maximum personal free-
dom. While each of these goals — full employment, price stability,
and maximum personal freedom -- is laudatory, a growing proportion of
economists has reached the conclusion that they cannot simultaneously
be achieved — at least not at our current stage of knowledge and
practice. The problem is that as steps are taken to reduce unemployment,
inflationary forces are induced, and as steps are taken to curb inflation,
unemployment increases. An apparent solution is price and wage controls;
but these limit personal freedom — something unacceptable to Americans
except perhaps in an all-out war or circumstances in which national
survival is felt to be at stake.
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While the primary tools used in reaching the target of full
or optimal employment are such items as expenditures, taxes, and mon-
etary variables, there is growing interest (though not as yet much
skill) in using education, manpower training, public employment, and
other labor market measures as anti-inflation devices to assist in
reaching macromanpower planning goals. It is maintained by some man-
power economists that by activities to increase the effectiveness of
the labor market, by removing artifical barriers to employment, by
increasing the extent of labor market information, and by increasing
the mobility of workers, the "bottlenecks" creating inflationary
pressure consequent to anti-unemployment measures will be broken.
The big problem is that the imperfections of the labor market are
particularly well entrenched. Their removal cannot take place over-
night, but apparently only over substantial periods of time.
Another category of national macromanpower planning, much
neglected, is that involving the macromanpower effects of changes in
national policy not directly related to manpower, but having manpower
implications. Examples of this are decisions to increase international
trade, which may result in great changes in the demand for domestic
labor. Another is the declaration or elimination of war or the im-
position or elimination of compulsory military service with its sizable
effects on the supply of civilian labor. Another example of a possible
macromanpower problem would be the effect of an equal rights amendment,
at least theoretically giving females equal access with men to the labor
market. The decision to reach the moon had great manpower consequences,
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just as the decision to downphase the space program had considerable
macromanpower effects. Ideally, there should be manpower planners
who can anticipate the manpower effects of such changes in national
policy, suggesting alternative means of reducing the negative effects
of such policies.
While macromanpower planning may seem far removed from the
operations of other manpower planners, the ease or difficulty with
which other manpower planners are able to accomplish their work will
be affected by macromanpower successes or failures. It would seem,
therefore, that other manpower planners must become familiar and
conversant with what is taking place with manpower issues at the
"macro" level. A start in providing material pursuant to this end is
found in some of the remaining sections of this chapter and also
in chapter 3-
National Manpower Program Planning
During the 1950s, manpower policies and programs in the United
States concentrated on producing a supply of highly educated scientists
and engineers devoted to keeping ahead of the Soviet Union in the arms
and space races. Persistently rising levels of unemployment during
the late 1950s and the explosive race issues of then and the early
1960s turned attention to new issues. It was found that not all
classes of workers experienced the same levels of unemployment or
employment. It was discovered that blacks and chicanes suffered
unemployment rates approximately double that of their white counter-
parts. American Indians were even worse off. The youth were found
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to have unemployment rates triple that of the population in general.
Ghettos and rural backwater communities had unemployment rates several
times that of city suburbs. Unskilled laborers had unemployment rates
much higher than semiskilled or skilled workers, the same being true
for the poorly educated as compared with the well educated. There
were some groups who suffered severe competitive handicaps in getting
and retaining jobs, as well as in maintaining equitable wage rates.
Alleviating the competitive handicaps of those persons in or entering
into the labor market, who were unable to obtain adequate employment
and earnings, became the dominant objective of national manpower
policies in the 1960s. In the 1970s with the general level of un-
employment rising, concern began to be expressed for other groups,
such as unemployed aerospace workers and returning veterans, The
1970s also produced a change in the focal point for much manpower pro-
gram planning, decentralizing it down to the state and local levels
but with a retention of some federal presence.
Emergence of the National Manpower Programs
A series of programs in the 1960s emerged in an attempt to meet
these needs: the Manpower Development and Training Act (MDTA); the
Economic Opportunity Act (EGA), with its Neighborhood Youth Corps,
Job Corps, Operation Mainstream, and New Careers Program; Job Oppor-
tunities in the Business Sector (JOBS); the Work Incentive (WIN)
program to rehabilitate welfare recipients; and the Concentrated
Employment Program (CEP) which attempted to bring together all manpower
programs in a concentrated area. These comprised the more important
ones. The Emergency Employment Act (EEA) of 1971, also known as PEP
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(Public Employment Program), which sought to employ the unemployed or
underemployed (especially veterans) in public sector service jobs
was in effect from 1971 through most of 1974, and continuing into 1975.
This variety of categorical programs — all (except for the last
mentioned) aimed at essentially the same disadvantaged target groups
but having different administering agencies; funding procedures;
eligibility requirements; levels of federal, state, and local author-
ity; and mixes of services — was confusing and hard to administer.
National policy-making tended toward uniform program directives regard-
less of local situations. Categorical programs required enrollees to
fit program requirements in order to receive available services,
rather than having a package of services tailored to individual needs.
Policymakers have never been able to make up their minds whether
the basic obstacles to adequate employment and income for so many were
the result of individuals' lack of qualifications and motivations or
institutionalized discrimination in the hiring process. For policy,
the answer made all the difference. Some programs leaned one way and
some the other. Most assumed that the individual, rather than the
institutions, had to change. But increasingly we are becoming aware
that there are institutional barriers requiring institutional reform,
the removal of which will improve the ability of individuals to change.
Cooperative Area Manpower Planning System
The Cooperative Area Manpower Planning System (CAMPS) was
created in an attempt to coordinate all of the agencies and programs.
Representatives of each agency involved in funding and administering
manpower programs in a state or major metropolitan area met, explored
state or local employment problems, identified target groups, and
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Informed each other of their plans. This cooperation was, however,
a case of equals working with equals, with no one having authority
to reallocate funds across program lines If one program should seem
better adapted to the current or local situation than another.
In each state, the employment service provided much of the
CAMPS leadership, but most agencies involved in manpower programs
were included. Each state was to draft a state plan for the delivery
of manpower services. As the system expanded, the Office of Economic
Opportunity, the Departments of Commerce, Housing and Urban Development,
Agriculture, and Defense, along with the Civil Service Commission,
became signators to the-interagency guidelines setting up CAMPS in the
spring of 1967- In 1971, with the increased concern for the environ-
ment, the Environmental Protection Agency was added as a signator.
The system included regional, state, and local CAMPS committees.
The local committees were to draw up their plans, under federally
issued guidelines, to be forwarded to the states and there consolidated
in state plans to be forwarded for regional approval. Individual fed-
eral agencies maintained the power of final approval of their individual
programs.
While CAMPS was far from perfectly effective, it established
a mechanism for communication among agencies that provided manpower
and manpower-related services, and it pointed to the need for more
power through control of funding if it was to be an effective planning
agency. The Labor Department continued to be the primary advocate and
user of CAMPS, with most of the other agencies providing varying
degrees of resistance or acceptance.
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The Emergence of State and Area Manpower Planning Councils
Frustrated by the details of administering programs under the
restrictions of federal guidelines, a few governors and mayors began
to demand and play a stronger role in the planning and administering
of manpower programs. Some were irritated by the fact that federal
manpower funds tended to bypass them in going directly to either
autonomous state educational and employment service agencies or to
quasi-private community action agencies operating at the local level.
Through legislation or executive order, a few governors and mayors
began to intervene with their own staffs and organizations. Examples
of such organizations are New York's Human Resources Administration,
Utah's State Manpower Planning Council, and California's Department of
Human Resource Development. Within whatever discretion was available
under federal law, they wanted to shape manpower programs to fit state
and local, political, and economic needs.
The Labor Department became increasingly aware of the objective
need and political pressure to decentralize more manpower policy decision
making to the regional, state, and local levels. It went as far as the
law allowed toward decentralization. A concomitant of this was the
decategorization of the scores of categorical manpower programs to give
more flexibility in determing the mix of services. A variety of
legislative proposals was made to effect this flexibility. The Depart-
ment of Health, Education, and Welfare (with its Office of Education)
was a major participant but less committed to decentralization and
decategorization, retaining more control at the national level.
In the meantime states (and a limited number of local govern-
ments) were given federal funds through CAMPS for manpower planning
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staffs. This contribution from CAMPS placed personnel on the staffs
of large city mayors and of governors who had an interest in enlarging
the roles of their principals — and therefore themselves — in man-
power decisions, and constituted a cadre as many as a thousand non-
federal planners (financed by federal funds) engaged in manpower programs
for the disadvantaged. EEA or PEP funds were used to increase the
number of local and state manpower planners. This was in addition to
the manpower administrators already on state and local government pay-
rolls. Most of these personnel had limited backgrounds and training
in their new assignments. In addition, involvement of private industry
. through the National Alliance of Businessmen's Job Opportunities in the
Business Sector (NAB-JOBS) as well as institutional MDTA and on-the-job
training produced an uncertain number of manpower staff on private
payrolls, adding to those already employed by private agencies admin-
istering Job Corps and similar programs. However, at that point, federal
manpower staffs were still more numerous and more experienced, although
most of them were better described as administrators rather than as
planners.
President Nixon in 1971 and again in 1972 asked Congress for
manpower revenue sharing in which blocks of manpower money would be made
available to state, larger local units, and consortia of governments
with few strings attached. Such monies, coupled with the limited man-
power monies appropriated by state and local governments, could have
enhanced the ability of those units to do manpower planning. There
was, however, much concern over the ability of such units to do effective
planning and to do the type of planning that would meet the national
goals of emphasizing assistance to the disadvantaged.
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These concerns became somewhat academic with the passage and
signing of the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) in
1973.
Interagency Cooperative Issuances No. 72-1 and No. 72-2
Meanwhile, in 1971 the National Manpower Coordinating Council
(NMCC)j faced with eventual decentralization and in a move toward
revenue sharing, issued interagency Cooperative Issuance No. 72-2 in
recognition of the "lack of impact of CAMPS on funding decisions."
The issuance called for both structural and functional revision of
CAMPS, allowing for increased initiative by state and local officials
in the planning and initiating of manpower programs. Former state
CAMPS committees became state planning councils and local CAMPS commit-
tees became manpower area planning councils. The primary tasks of
these councils were:
1. To advise elected local officials, governors, and regional
officers of locally conceived area and state manpower needs.
2. To assist local elected officials and governors in the
development of plans to meet these needs, including
priorities and recommendations for funding.
These plans were to include all manpower and manpower-related
programs, irrespective of funding source. In the case of programs
funded by the Manpower Administration and agreed upon by regional
officials, these plans constituted action plans for funding to the
maximum extent nossible under existine law. With respect to agencies
other than in the Labor Department, "plans" were merely recommendations.
State and area councils were supported by independent secretariat
staffs. Area plans were submitted through the state manpower planning
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council, with its comments to the regional manpower area planning
council which had the opportunity to comment on the state plan.
Membership on the manpower councils was expanded to include:
1. Representation from the broad spectrum of community
interests
2. Decision-making-level agency representation
3- Client group representatives chosen by the clients
4. Representation from the public, business, and organized
labor
Area Labor Market Manpower Planning and CETA
The Comprehensive Employment and Training Act of 1973, with its
emphasis on local and consortia manpower planning, has created a new
type of manpower planning — that for a given area labor market.
While a labor market for certain specialized occupations may be
international, national, or regional in geography, practically speak-
ing, most labor markets are limited to being within reasonable com-
muting distances. This is especially true for the clients to be
served by CETA money, for their financial resources and the types of
jobs they hold do not permit them to commute too far. This labor
market may be limited to a city or a group of closely related com-
munities within a fifty- or sixty-mile radius. Because CETA and its
immediate predecessors have been the primary stimulants to area labor
market manpower planning, it will be well to look at this legislation
in some detail.
In December of 1973, Congress and the Nixon Administration com-
promised on their differences, the result of which was CETA. This
Act marked a milestone in federal-state-local relationships, for the
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federal government gave up much of its detailed manpower planning
and supervision to state and local prime sponsors.
Under this legislation a block of manpower money was provided
to the Labor Department, only a small portion of which remains for
the use of the department for programs deemed essentially national in
their implications. These are primarily the Job Corps, Indian Youth,
and migrant manpower programs, along with research and demonstration
projects. The great bulk of the money is allocated by formula to state
and local prime sponsors for their manpower programs for the disadvantaged,
unemployed, and underemployed.
Prime Sponsors
Each city or other local unit of general government, such as a
county, with a population of a hundred thousand or more, along with other
strategically important geographical areas with exceptional problems,
is an eligible prime sponsor and entitled to receive a CETA grant. To
receive a grant, the unit must submit a plan of service to the regional
offices of the Labor Department, where it is approved. Consortia of
local governments may be established, linking up other contiguous local
government units not eligible for prime sponsorship with eligible prime
sponsors. Such consortia are encouraged by 5 percent incentive money.
For those areas of a state not eligible as prime sponsors and not asso-
ciating in consortia, the state is the prime sponsor. In addition, where
all eligible local prime sponsors In a state elect to do so, they may
designate the state as the prime sponsor, and the incentive money will
go to the state.
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When all eligible local prime sponsors elect to have the state
act as prime sponsor, local area plans of service are merged at the
state level in a state plan for submission to regional Labor Depart-
ment officials for approval and funding. On the other hand, where
eligible local prime sponsors or consortia elect to remain independent
of the state, they formulate their plans, submitting them directly
to the region and, concurrently, to the governor — but only for his
comment, not his approval.
CETA Planning Requirements
While the appropriate chief elected officials are responsible for
the plans of service, these plans are to be drafted with the aid of
professional staff and the advice of a manpower planning council that
is broadly representative of the community. Regional Labor Department
officials, who are empowered to approve plans of service, are instructed
to allow maximum freedom to prime sponsors in developing their own mix
of services. However, regional officers must determine that the plans
meet the requirements of CETA and that:
1. The application is complete
2. Needs and priorities are documented
3- Planned expenditures are substantiated
4. Performance goals are reasonable
5- The population to be served is involved in the planning
process
6. The method of delivery is supported as to availability and
capability
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7. Maximum effort to meet the previous year's goals
was made
8. Administrative costs are reasonable
9- There are adequate internal administrative controls
10. Opportunity was provided for comment by all parties
To meet their responsibilities, regional officials are expected to
monitor and evaluate prime sponsor manpower operations. However,
it is anticipated that their emphasis will be one of technical
assistance, rather than a policing activity.
As stated earlier the eligible clients or population to be
served by CETA money consist of the unemployed, underemployed, and
the disadvantaged. An unemployed person is one who is not working
but is available to work. An underemployed person is one who either
works involuntarily part time or who works full time but whose income
is below the poverty level. A disadvantaged person is one who belongs
to a family on welfare or whose income is below the poverty level.
Programs to upgrade personnel are possible so long as they are
tied to those who are eligible to be involved in CETA financed programs,
While prime sponsors are not required to maintain previously financed
manpower programs, it is anticipated that most plans will emphasize:
1. Training programs for youth
2. Initial or entry-level training
3- Subsidized public and private employment
4. Programs for racial or ethnic minorities
Under MDTA, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare
(HEW) was a partner (if a junior one) in the administration of the
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program. Under CETA, it is not a signator, the administration
lying in the hands of the Labor Department. However, HEW receives
some CETA money to enable it to coordinate its activities with the
Labor Department and state and local prime sponsors. The details
of HEWs involvement will be found in a subsequent chapter.
In January of 1975} CETA was amended, providing Title VI monies
for a permanent public service employment program designed as a
countercyclical device in which public service employment would expand
in times of recession and decrease as unemployment diminished. Con-
trasted with the PEP program, funds were channeled through the existing
CETA establishment; but similar to PEP, the monies were for the
unemployed (thirty days or more) and the underemployed (those invol-
untarily employed part time and those employed at wages providing in-
come below the poverty level). The determination of eligible clientele
within those requirements was up to the prime sponsors. Under the
guidelines, for the nation as a whole there was apparently considerable
"skimming" in which the highest qualified of the unemployed or under-
employed were hired, leaving the hard-core disadvantaged without jobs.
This was probably to the advantage of the employing agencies, but
it was severely criticized by those who maintained that public service
jobs should be concentrated among the longer term, more disadvantaged
unemployed.
MICROMANPOWER PLANNING
The major purpose of this manual is to meet the needs of micro-
manpower planners in the public sector. In subsequent chapters material
will be presented to give these individuals perspective in the
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ramifications of their jobs. Such a perspective will be enhanced
by an understanding of the role of micromanpower planning in the
private sector. The remainder of this chapter will therefore be
devoted primarily to a discussion of the basic principles and steps
of micromanpower planning in general — that type of manpower planning
conducted to meet the manpower needs for a particular industry,
company, or agency. It is from this general field of mircomanpower
planning that specific steps in micromanpower planning in the public
sector will be derived.
Organizational or Micromanpower Planning in the Private Firm
Manpower planning in the business firm is a relatively new
activity. In the past, most employees have needed only the most
rudimentary training for their jobs, 'and such skills could be replaced
with ease if new skills were needed. However, with unionization,
seniority rules, benefit packages, and changes in business practices,
there has developed a tendency toward the development of careers,
reducing turnover and making for a greater interdependence between
employers and employees. A higher proportion of employees are now
skilled workers, technicians, engineers, scientists, and others with
long training times in whom firms may have made major investments
and who firms want to retain. Professional business management puts
a premium on looking ahead to see that each supervisor, manager,
and corporate officer is understudied and the right replacement Is in
the right place at the right time. Whereas the primary personnel
concern was once human relations (to keep employees happy despite the
necessity for discipline) or labor relations (keeping the peace),
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manpower planning with its career implications is now rising in importance
to both.
The primary motivation for business firms to be involved in man-
power planning is its ability to contribute to profits. Thus if the
costs of manpower planning and development are less than the potential
benefits, planning will be done once the relationship of costs to benefits
is known. Increasingly, larger firms include, as potential benefits,
the public esteem that may come from demonstrating a social conscience
in their manpower policies as well as the direct benefits that may be
derived from cooperating with government in its attempt to achieve certain
social goals. This is especially the case in the hiring of disadvantaged
people. These inclusions enhance the prospects for manpower planning.
In its manpower planning, a firm must take four unique and impor-
tant manpower characteristics into consideration:
1. To reach maximum productivity in higher skills, an individual
must prepare by way of education and training for a long
period of time.
2. The value of workers generally appreciates, rather than
depreciates, from use for a substantial period of time.
3. An investment in manpower becomes the possession of the
individual who is free to leave the employment of a firm
or agency almost at will, though he or she may well remain
in the industry.
4. Personal satisfaction plays a key role in a worker's
productivity and stability.
Employers' manpower needs depend upon the product or service
they sell, the technology used, and the profitability of the firm. The
available manpower depends upon the population, the labor force
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participation rate (the percentage of the population in the labor
force), the human resource development system, and the demands of
other employers.
To project manpower needs, therefore, entails projecting economic
conditions, product or service demand, market share, wage costs, and
prices. The sophistication required for such projections lies beyond
the resources of all but the larger individual firms, although business
or industrial associations or consultants may be of some value to small
companies. The most effective manpower planning is found in rapidly
growing companies in expanding industries, but it is concentrated
primarily with planning for the higher levels or skills shortage
positions.
This part of the manpower planning profession, although also new,
has begun to develop its assorted professional practices. For instance,
the usual steps to manpower planning in the firm consist of:
1. A projection of manpower requirements in different departments,
divisions, occupations, and levels at various points in the
future
2. An inventory of the numbers, ages, skills, and performance
of current personnel
3- Implementation of a plan to develop current personnel
appropriate to meet future needs and to supplement that
personnel as required from outside sources
At a more detailed level, these steps require the manpower planner to:
1. Examine the historical data to determine the past relation-
ships between the size and composition of the work force
and sales, production, and inventories
2. Examine the historical data to determine retirements, deaths,
quitting, and dismissal rates, promotions and transfers,
and retraining periods and retrainability rates
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3. Determine the relationship of staff functions to line
employees, sales volume and production
4. Examine the rate of product or service development and
its impact on the work force
5. Determine the rate of productivity increase in terms of the
ratios of man-hours to output, capital equipment to output,
and of man-hour productivity index to capital productivity
index
Then, given forecasts regarding sales, capital outlays, and
product development, the following steps are taken in defining the
work to be done:
1. Make forecasts of turnover, promotion and transfer, retrain-
ability and productivity increases (both from ongoing methods
of improvement, work simplification, and so forth, and from
major installations of automation, electronic data processing
equipment, plant layout revisions, and so on).
2. Construct a model to forecast future manpower needs based
on forecasted variables.
3. Use the model to make two-, five-, and ten-year projections.
4. With these projections, the company can compare its projected
manpower supply to its projected needs and make plans to do
something about its potential quantitative deficit or sur-
plus .
Once the quantitative requirements for the future have been fore-
cast, the firm or employer association must answer such pertinent
qualitative questions relating to its employment needs as the
following:
1. Can the voluntary separation rate be reduced, particularly
among the most promising younger employees?
2. Can the replacement problem be met by opening up positions in
middle management for younger men? What changes would this
mean in retirement policy?
3. Do all management positions require the equivalent of a
college education?
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4. Are there men among the hourly and weekly work force with
managerial potential?
5. What are the sources of manpower -r- untrained and trained?
6. Can women be used for some of the supervisory Jobs?
7. Can jobs be identified which develop younger employees
at faster rates than other jobs?
8. Can capable people be obtained by transfer from other units
of the firm or industry?
9. Should the firm begin to hire outsiders who will provide
the talent and age requirements needed?
10. What are the qualitative requirements of the various jobs?
11. How might the qualitative requirements best be met?
12. What training programs are needed to fill needs?
13- What is the best situs for these training programs?
14. Are there any departments with problems of greater or lesser
severity than the overall firm?
15- Does the firm really need, say, 15 percent of its labor force
as engineers, when a third of the engineers are doing non-
engineering work?
16. Can persons not considered to have promotion potential be
developed into promotable candidates?
17- Can incentive factors (salaries, fring benefits, promotions,
job status, and so on) be revised to achieve greater effort
from available manpower?
18. Is a high school diploma really necessary?
19- Are there identifiable career ladders?
20. What training programs are needed to make career ladders
effective?
A firm with some foresight will have established criteria for
either internal development and promotion or outside recruiting. Though
internal development is usually preferred, there are times and jobs for
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which the firm has no current available talent or lacks the time
to develop the skills, knowledge, and judgment of existing personnel.
When this occurs, the manpower planner must take steps to assure that
there are responsive external human resource development institutions
available within the community. This requires a knowledge of and
working relationship with such institutions.
A primary conflict often exists between national and labor market
manpower program planning on the one hand and micromanpower planning
on the other in the efforts of manpower program planners to get the
disadvantaged hired. Ever-increasing hiring standards stand in the
way of employing the more poorly equipped workers. Employer reluctance
to train, unless absolutely necessary, can be understood when it is
realized that the trained worker is free to leave almost at will
and may hire himself or herself to a competitor. In addition, train-
ing costs can be high. However, effective manpower planning should
result in a higher retention rate, minimizing the losses from this
source; and internal training programs may reduce the length and
cost of the orientation period. The private sector, federally financed
on-the-job training, and NAB-JOBS programs help to bridge this gap,
with public money subsidizing the training of disadvantaged workers
by private firms.
The location and authority of the manpower planner in the business
firm is still unclear; but there seems to be a logical tendency to place
the planner's function, along with budgeting, under those having
ultimate responsibility for generating and measuring performance of
an operating plan. With techniques so new, the pitfalls are many.
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Errors in projections are common and widespread. The primary deter-
minants of future employment are not generally clear. There are
no generally accepted measures of competence, and personal judgments
are often less than objective. Department heads and other supervisors
often attempt to "hoard" good people by "hiding them" from the planner.
Internal and external labor markets touch only at certain ports of
entry and exit, making it difficult to foresee future interactions
between supply and demand for manpower.
Conceptually, manpower planning in the firm is relatively easy
once the need, position, and power of the manpower planning function
is settled, preferably near the top of the management hierarchy.
Line authority usually carries with it the power to be involved in
manpower planning and to have the resultant plans implemented.
Industry-Specific or Micromanpower Planning
in Employer Associations
Private firms usually operate in an industry composed of firms
producing common or similar products or rendering similar services.
They frequently experience common manpower problems such as skill
shortages, high wages, heavy turnover, substantial unemployment due
to technological change, labor union activity, and so on. Each firm
is usually most jealous of the power and responsiblity to resolve its
own manpower problems, just as it "plays its cards rather close" so
far as the other elements of its own operations are concerned.
However, some manpower problems are not amenable to solution by
the singular action of the firm. For example, extreme skill shortages
in the face of rising demand give great bargaining power to the workers,
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whether represented by a union or not. The competitive bidding for
scarce manpower resources increases wages faster than they would
rise in the absence of such bidding. An individual firm is hesitant
to engage in expensive training programs which may only result in
having its trainees pirated away by firms without such programs.
However, if all firms facing the same manpower shortage act collec-
tively, they may reduce the upward pressure on wages. Such collective
action can take place through employer associations. But to do so
effectively requires manpower planning by a supra-firm organization,
i.e., an employer association.
Micromanpower Planning in the Public Agency
Because this paper deals primarily with the subject of this section,
we shall not attempt an extensive treatment of the subject here. How-
ever, to round out the typology, we shall make a brief presentation
on micromanpower planning in the public sector.
Agency or organizational manpower planning in the public sector
parallels that for the private firm. There are many similarities
between manpower planning for public agencies and that for private
firms. The forces of supply are similar; both government agencies
and private businesses usually compete in the same external labor
market for manpower and are therefore subject to similar market
forces. However, the internal labor market differs between public
and private employment. In the public sector the federal civil service
and state merit systems exist, while in the private sector each company
has its own personnel system. The motivation underlying manpower
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planning also differs. Business firms are profit motivated, and
manpower planning for them must carry its own weight; i.e., at
least pay for itself.
If the anticipated benefits do not exceed the anticipated
costs, at least in the minds of decision makers, it will usually be
eliminated. In the public agency, profits are not involved. How-
ever, manpower planners must in some way justify their existence
to decision makers and ultimately to the cognizant legislative
bodies. Under tight budgets they are forced into cost reductions.
Every agency establishes its own means of justification. Empire
building is especially common; and in a well-entrenched bureaucracy,
empires can be retained for extended periods of time. However, man-
power planning in the public sector is so new that the problem is
generally one of breaking into the bureaucracy — being able to
justify the fight for the resources necessary to do the planning.
Once manpower planning has been accepted and funded, the tech-
niques for public sector manpower planning within an agency are similiar
to those of the private sector. Authority is usually present to obtain
the data. The authority to monitor and evaluate is usually intrinsic
within the power to administer. The problem is getting the resources
to do the planning. Probably the most extensive agency manpower plan-
ning has been done by the Defense Department.
Industry-specific manpower planning in the public sector parallels
that for employer associations, but with some notable exceptions. The
major differences revolve around the question of power. Employer
associations seldom have the power to do really professionally competent
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manpower planning because they lack authority and independent resources.
Industry-specific manpower planning in the public sector consists
of several basically different kinds of power relationships. One
relationship recognizes the complete political and fiscal sovereignty
of state and local jurisdictions. In such relationships, the federal
planners have no power — legal or economic — over state and local
jurisdictions. This situation most closely approximates that of
employer associations. In it, the federal planners must find the
technique of obtaining the interested cooperation of equals in the
planning process, requiring a real selling job and proved performance.
State and local officials must be firmly convinced of the need for
manpower planning before they will devote the necessary resources.
In the absence of a compelling sales job, the federal manpower
planners will have to subsidize state and local manpower planning
efforts. The chances are small that in such a relationship a really
adequate data system can be developed for there will be too many
gaps.
At the other extreme are situations In which federal manpower
planners have an entree through federal enforcement procedures. An
example of this is in the case of air and water pollution. Federal
law requires states and local governments to conform to certain stan-
dards. The federal government sweetens the compulsion with federal
funds, but compulsion nevertheless Is involved, even though it Is
with a velvet glove. The combination of political and economic power
may be used to compel manpower planning. In this case, federal officials
must be sold on the need for the function, and then a nationwide man-
power planning effort for that industry can be developed. But once
they are sold, state and local officers can usually be brought along.
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Intermediate between these two extreme examples of federal and
state power arrangements are those in which the federal government
"buys" the cooperation of state and local agencies through purely
economic clout rather than political power. For such an approach,
state and local officials are generally rational in an economic sense.
So long as the benefits — monetary and nonmonetary — are greater
than the costs, they will be amenable to federal planning efforts.
This means that the benefits to state and local jurisdictions of a
given program or efforts must be supplemented by federal dollars, at
least to the point where the benefits equal the costs. If costs ex-
ceed benefits, state and local officials will be less than enthusiastic
about cooperation.
Regardless of which power situation is Involved, the ideal tech-
niques are very much the same. Certain data must be collected,
collated, and analyzed. A system for implementation, unique to every
industry, must be developed, monitored, and evaluated. The difference
is that in manpower planning for an industry — private or public —
it will be much harder to approach the ideal.
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3-
THE ECONOMICS OF THE LABOR MARKET
Many of the tasks that the manpower planner In the public sector
will perform will require that he become acquainted with the operation
of the labor market in which he must operate. Such an acquaintance
will include obtaining a theoretica'l and empirical understanding of
the economic principles associated with such a market as well as the
institutional forces affecting it. Among those tasks that the planner
must perform are:
1. Forecasts of the future demands for specific manpower by
the agency or industry as well as the relationship of
those demands to the competing demands of other employers
2. Forecasts of the supply of labor of various kinds which will
be available to meet the various demands
3. Plans for redressing any imbalance between the demand and
supply indicated by the forecasts
4. Plans for the best use of labor by the agency or industry
for which manpower planning is being done
Each of these tasks has implications for the other three. An
improvement in the use of labor for example will tend to reduce the
quantity demanded and may affect the occupational mix or relative de-
mands for the various types of labor used. In turn the best use of
labor will depend in part upon its availability. A better use of
labor, by reducing demand and taking advantage of the particular
nature of the labor supply, may help redress imbalances in supply and
demand.
These tasks are also some of the major functions performed by
labor economists for larger segments of the labor market. They also
3-1
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3-2
become some of the building blocks of those economists who look at
the interaction of product and labor markets, as well as the economy
as a whole, for the purpose of understanding the economy and form-
ulating government policies to improve the economic health of the
nation -- the reduction of inflation, the reduction in unemployment,
the increase of productivity, the use of natural resources, and so
forth.
Because of the interaction of manpower planning with labor eco-
nomics in general, it is well that the manpower planner have at least
a rudimentary knowledge of the operation of markets and the economy.
A MARKET ECONOMY
Economic systems are developed for the purpose of deciding what
goods and services are to be produced, how they will be produced, and
how they will be allocated. Three general types of economic systems
have been developed for making these decisions:
1. Traditional — Economic decisions of what to produce, how
to produce it, or how the production will be distributed
are made on the basis of tradition.
2. Command or authoritarian — Economic decisions are made
either by a central or a diffused but coordinated authority.
3. Market — Economic decisions are made by the economic forces
of supply and demand.
Actually, no economy is purely traditional, authoritarian, or
market. Most economies exhibit traces of all three elements, although
one element is often dominant and is taken, perhaps loosely at times,
as the basis of its description. The United States, as well as some
other advanced industrialized countries in what is sometimes referred
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3-3
to as the free world, has historically emphasized the market type of
economy, though to differing degrees of emphasis. The more highly
socialized countries, while they may be politically democratic,
have a high degree of government or authoritarian control of their
economies. Most lesser developed, countries have emphasized tradition
even though they may be in the throes of change. Communist countries
emphasize authoritarian control.
Within a given economic system, there are subsystems and sub-
markets, each with its own balance of traditional, command, and market
forces. For example, in the market for doctors, tradition may play
a significant role, for doctors' sons who are more likely to become
doctors than are the sons of similarly economically situated fathers
in other occupations. Command or authoritarian elements are involved
in this market as governmentally imposed or allowed restrictions are
placed on the competitive healing professions or as the government
finances medical education, and as national health insurance is
instituted. Market forces are involved as nongovernment-imposed desire
for healing services develops and as youth, who because of high incomes,
obtain — on their own or their father's resources — a medical
education.
In a market economy, economic decisions are made by the inter-
action of the forces of supply and demand in what is termed "markets."
In such an economy, relative prices direct the course of economic
activity. As prices of consumer goods increase, producers tend to
increase production, searching for the increased profits generally
made possible by the higher prices. As production increases, the
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3-1)
demand for the various factors of production increases, tending
to increase factor prices. As the incomes to the factors increase,
more units of those factors are offered for sale. For example,
as wages increase, more workers will seek employment.
On the other hand, as prices of consumer goods increase, the
quantity of the good demanded will tend to decrease. As the quantity
of a demanded good decreases, production will tend to diminish, and
as production declines, the demand for the factors of production will
decline, reducing factor prices, which will discourage the offering
of factors. To illustrate, as wages decline, fewer workers will
offer their services. The opposite tendencies hold true for declining
prices.
In a free market, one without government action, the forces of
supply and demand operate to determine prices. If there is also an
absence of monopolistic forces, supply and demand move freely in
response to the uncoordinated actions of numerous suppliers and
demanders and, in the absence of outside or noneconomic forces,
fluctuate until the forces of supply and demand are in equilibrium;
that is, until the quantity of a good demanded equals the quantity
of the good offered for sale at a given price.
Economists refer to product markets in which decisions are
made concerning products or goods; they also refer to labor markets
in which decisions regarding labor are made. Of course these two
general types of markets are interrelated. Decisions about products
must carry with them decisions about labor. Even the most advanced,
automated technology for the production of goods still requires some
form of labor, even tho £h it may be of a very high degree of skill.
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3-5
Labor is actually one of the four factors of production usually
identified by economists, which in various forms and uses make up
production.
These factors are:
1. Labor or human resources (manpower)
2. Land or natural resources
3- Capital resources
4. Entrepreneurship or business organization
Each of these factors has its own peculiar markets and market forces
and the various markets interact in the market economy already sketchily
described.
OPERATION OF THE LABOR MARKET
The labor market operates on much the same basis as other markets,
but in this case on the interaction of .he demand for and the supply of
labor. The labor market can be examined at two levels -- the "macro"
or aggregate labor market and the "micro" or particular labor markets.
These two labor market levels interact with each other. For example,
when the macrolabor market is functioning at or near the level where
all workers who wish to work are employed, employers, who are primarily
interested in the microlabor markets, may have some difficulty replacing
workers who are being separated or who are quitting. Such difficulty
causes competition for workers in micromarkets and drives up wages.
The more efficient the labor market information system, th? educational
training establishment, and the employment exchange services, in such
a "tight" labor market, the less difficulty in meeting the needs of the
microlabor markets and the less upward pressure on wages.
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3-6
On the other hand, when there is a slack ("loose") "macro"
demand for labor, with substantial unemployment of those workers
wishing to work, employers, operating in the microlabor markets,
have greater freedom in employing workers who are in competition with
each other for the relatively scarce jobs. If the labor market were
perfectly competitive, this would drive wages down in the microlabor
markets, as workers competing with each other would be willing to
accept lower wages or other perquisites in order to secure employment.
As shown subsequently, the interaction also works in the other
way. That is, as the summation of demands for labor in the micro-
markets increases, aggregate or macrodemand responds positively,
and vice versa. And as the summation of supplies of workers in the
various microlabor markets increases or decreases, the macrosupply
varies.
THE AGGREGATE LABOR MARKET
The "macro" or aggregate labor market is the market in which the
total demand for and supply of labor for the economy in general interact
It is within this labor market level that the national economic health
is primarily determined: whether there be depression, recession,
inflation, or environmental deterioration.
The Macrodemand for Labor
The "macro" or aggregate demand for labor of the economy as a
whole is determined by the total production -- gross national product —
of the economy, which in turn is determined by total spending (govern-
ment, consumer, and business investment). If productivity and other
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elements are constant, the greater the total spending, the larger
will be GNP, production, or aggregate demand, and the greater will be
the demand for labor. A healthy, vigorous, growing economy or GNP
demands more labor. On the other hand, when spending and consequently
the aggregate demand or GNP declines, the macrodemand for labor also
decreases and the unemployment of labor increases. As the specific
labor demands of primary concern to the micromanpower planner are a
part of the overall demand for labor, they are affected by such decreases.
When unemployment is widespread, even in a market-oriented economy,
political forces require action of the government to reduce that un-
employment . In a democracy few people are willing to accept the person-
ally negative effects of unemployment. They demand government action.
Such action consists of activities which will increase spending; con-
sequently the aggregate or macrodemand for the factors of production,
including that for labor, will generally increase. Unfortunately
some of the speeding up of the economy and the consequent increase in
demand for labor may also induce inflation. Especially is this true
when unemployment is low — below 5 percent. When unemployment is low
and aggregate demand is high, not only is there generally an inflation
of prices but also there is created an upward pressure on wages,
especially in areas with skill shortages. Increased wages may in turn
force increased prices.
It might be concluded from the foregoing that when aggregate demand
is low and unemployment high, there will be a downward pressure on wages.
This conclusion was once essentially correct, before the 1930s. When
unemployment increased, wages declined. However, beginning in the 1930s,
numerous market institutional changes were introduced which made wages
resistant to downward pressures and introduced downward rigidity. One
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of the principal institutional changes was the increase in union power,
with its wave effects on even the nonunionized sector. Where unions
are strong, any attempt by employers to lower wages is met by strong
resistance in the form of costly strikes if they are deemed necessary.
Another significant institutional change is the introduction of un-
employment compensation. Most workers who become unemployed due to
decreased production are entitled to government unemployment compensation
designed to tide them over until they can become employed again, or at
least for a given period. Even many private employers have termination
pay or guaranteed income designed to do the same thing such as supple-
mentary unemployment benefits. So long as unemployed workers receive
such compensation, they apply less downward pressure on wages than if they
were out looking for work and competing for scarce jobs, thus driving
wages downward.
We must hasten to add a caveat. One must not assume from the
previous discussion that the primary or only cause of price inflation is
increased wages. While increasing costs may be translated into increased
consumer prices, there are man' costs: rents, interest, salaries, taxes,
and even profits. These constitute costs that enter into total costs and
therefore prices. The theory that increased costs generate inflation
is usually termed "cost push.''
Perhaps an even more important institutional change is the
acceptance by the government and monetary authorities of the need to
maintain a high-employment economy through fiscal and monetary actions.
Such guarantees encourage what is often referred to as a "racheting"
effect on wages and prices, producing upward but not downward flexibility.
There are those economists who maintain that increased costs only
follow the increased prices generated by excessive spending, which results
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primarily from actions of the fiscal and monetary authorities. The
theory relating to this cause-effect relationship is referred to as
"demand pull." It may be that some inflations are primarily induced
by cost-push pressures, while others are produced by demand-pull forces.
The Macrosupply of Labor
The "macro" or aggregate supply of labor is utlimately determined
by the size of the population. The greater the population, the greater
the number of people available to work. However, not all people work.
There are those who are not part of the labor force, the labor force
being defined as consisting of those who have jobs or are looking for
work. The aged usually exclude themselves from the labor force, although
what constitutes "aged" varies. Retirement programs help reduce the
age of retirement. Children and youth up to sixteen years are also
generally excluded from the labor force by legal minimum age requirements,
even though some may actually participate in it. Persons who are in
such institutions as hospitals and prisons are excluded. Those in the
Armed Forces are excluded from the civilian labor force. While married
women (especially those with children) historically had little partic-
ipation in the labor force, this picture has been rapidly changing.
The measurement of the rate of participation of people in the labor
force is called the "labor force participation rate." Table 3-1 shows
some of the interrelationships of population and labor force participation,
which differs according to sex, race, and age. Table 3-2 illustrates
some of these differences.
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TABLE 3-1
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates of
Selected Population Groups
(1973; in thousands)
Total Women
Category Number Percent Number Percent
Sixteen years of age or
older
Sixteen years of age in
civilian labor force
148,263
88,71^
77,242
35,510
Labor force participation
rate for sixteen years
of age and older 59-8$ 44.7$
SOURCE: Manpower Report of the President, 1974 (Washington, D.C.:
U.S. Government Printing Office, 1974).
TABLE 3-2
Selected Labor Force Participation Rates for Civilian,
Noninstitutionalized, sixteen Years of Age and Older
(1973)
Category
Total
Age:
16-17
18-19
20-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65 and older
SOURCE: Manpower
Other Races
White Males White Females Male Female
79.5% 44.1$ 73.8$ 49.1$
52.7
72.3
85.8
96.3
96.8
93.5
79.0
22.8
Report of the President, 1974 (Washington, D.C.;
U.S. Government Printing Office, 1974).
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3-H
Not only do the labor force participation rates differ by sex,
race, and age, they differ by time. Below is a list of participation
rates of white women in the civilian labor force for selected years be-
tween 1948 and 1973, showing the steady increase and taken from the same
source as Tables 3-1 and 3-2.
Participation Rate for
Year White Women
1948 31.3?
1950 32.6
1952 33.6
1954 33.3
1956 35-7
1958 35.8
I960 36.5
1962 36.7
1964 37-5
1966 39.2
1968 40.7
1970 42.6
1973 44.1
The participation rate of white males has declined over the same period.
The labor force participation rate for blacks and others show similar
movements.
The rates also change as to season, the rate increasing in June
and declining in September, rising again in December and declining in
January. The rates likewise change with general economic movements,
increasing in times of rising employment as jobs open up, encouraging
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3-12
the marginal or secondary workers -- women, aged, youth, disadvantaged —
to seek employment, and decline as unemployment increases, discouraging
the marginal workers who often leave the labor force in frustration.
Some Economic Problems in the Macrolabor Market
As already inferred, two major economic problems result from im-
balance in the aggregate or macrolabor market — inflation and unemploy-
ment. If macrodemand for labor is constant while population or labor
force participation rates increase, unemployment increases. Unemployment
also increases if macrodemand declines, while the participation rate
remains constant. On the other hand if macrodemand increases while
population or participation rates remain constant, once unemployment
has been reduced to about 5 percent, inflation pressures tend to be
introduced.
A new economic problem has become increasingly recognized over
the past decade, not due so much to imbalance but due to increases in
both supply and demand. As the population increases, the demand for
goods likewise must increase to take care of the expanding population.
Increases in the demand for goods are translated not only into increases
in the demand for labor but also into increases in the demand for our
limited resources. This increase in demand results in shortages of
raw materials, increasing their prices, as well as negatively affecting
the quality of the biospheric environment in which we live — polluting
air, water, and land.
This brief presentation of some of the characteristics and problems
facing the macrolabor market is sufficient to show that the micromanpower
planner does not function In a vacuum. He is a part of a much larger
scene of which he must be aware and take into consideration in his
particularized or micromanpower planning.
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MICROLABOR MARKETS
The labor market level most intimately affecting the micromanpower
planner is the particular labor market within which the planner operates.
Actually, however, there is not a single labor market but a number of
labor markets, each occupation with which the micromanpower planner
deals having its own particular labor market.
Each occupational grouping constitutes its own labor market in
which the forces of supply and demand for that particular occupation come
together or interact. Each labor market varies not only in occupation
but in geography. For example, the market for low-level, unskilled,
low-paying jobs is usually limited to easy commuting distance. Poorly
paid workers cannot afford to travel very far. They are also limited
in their knowledge of what is taking place outside their immediate and
surrounding communities. However, if conditions become intolerable
(as happened in the "dust bowl" of the 1930s) or when widespread and
promising opportunities occur (as during war time), mass migrations out of
oppressive labor markets do occur — the market at least temporarily
expands; but once the pressure is released, it contracts again. The labor
market for highly specialized and short-supply professionals is usually
regional, national, or even international in scope. These people gen-
erally know what is taking place in a very wide geographical area and
are mobile enough to make the necessary moves. The micromanpower planner
must know in what kind of a market or markets he or she is operating.
The various microlabor markets operate in similar ways, being
subject to much the same types of forces. It helps to understand the
economic principles operating within all, or almost all, particular
labor markets.
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The Macroeffects of the Microlabor Market
Just as the functioning of the macrolabor market affects the
microlabor markets, so do the latter affect the former. To illustrate,
as already indicated, in the United States there has been a constant
pressure within micromarkets to "economize" on the use of labor, espe-
cially the low-skill labor, machines and automation taking its place.
Millions of persons, for a myriad of reasons, have low-level skills.
Thus with technological progress, millions of persons are left behind,
unable to secure jobs. The result is a vast "reserve army" of unemployed,
•
low-skill people, many of whom eventually leave the labor market and
subsist on welfare. These persons become economic drags, feeding off
the economy but contributing nothing by way of production. They also
often constitute social and political dynamite. The growth of this
reserve army constitutes the primary reason for the national manpower
programs of the 1960s and '70s. Should some means be found to help
these people gain access to jobs, they would stimulate the economy by
increasing production. Their labor force involvement would also affect
the macrosupply of manpower.
The Microdemand for Labor
The specific demand for a particular kind of labor is defined as
the quantities of a particular labor that will be offered at alternative
wages at a given time and place. This relationship can be shown in both
tabular and graphic forms. The following list presents a hypothetical
demand schedule for a particular kind of labor, while Figure 3.1 presents
that same demand in graphical form.
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Alternative
Wage Rates
$2.00
2.50
3.00
3-50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Quantities Demanded
of Labor A _
160
150
130
120
110
100
A
L
T
E
R
N
A
V
E
W
A
G
E
S
Quantity
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170
FIGURE 3.1. Hypothetical Demand Curve
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3-16
It will be noted that as the alternative wage rate increases,
the quantity demanded decreases and that as the alternative wage rates
decrease, the quantity demanded increases. This inverse relationship
between wages and quantity is not happenstance. It is used purposely
because that is how demand generally acts. As of any given moment in
time, the employer will tend to reduce employment at alternatively
higher wage rates and increase employment at alternatively lower wage
rates. There may be exceptions, but this is generally how they act.
What is it that determines the microdemand for labor? There are
several determinants, the most important are as follows: First, there
is the need for a particular kind of labor. This need is determined by
the kind of a product or service that an agency or industry produces, as
well as the technology. If the product is clean water, the need will
be for workers having the skills needed to produce clean water. If the
technology is highly mechanized, requiring little hand labor but much
engineering skill, the demand will be not for unskilled labor but for
at least engineering aides or technicians. The greater the need, the
higher wages will tend to be. The less the need, the lower wages will
be. If nonessential government services become too costly, the people
will react by reducing their desire or felt need, making substitutes.
Therefore at alternatively higher wages, there is a pressure for reduction
in numbers, and at lower wages more can be hired.
The demand for labor is both direct and derived. The demand for
that labor which directly satisfies human wants may be termed "direct."
iowever, much of the demand for labor is "derived," being derived from
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3-17
the demand for consumer goods and services. As the demand for the
consumer goods and services increases or decreases, so moves the demand
for the labor used in its production.
The second determinant is the money available to pay wages. In
an extremely poor community the figure would be very low, while in a
rich community the figure might be considerably higher. If federal
funds are available, the figure would probably be higher than if they
were not present. The availability of federal funds varies with the
political winds. As more money becomes available, the higher wages
can be; the less the availability of money, the lower the wage will tend
to be. There is usually a constant pressure to reduce budgets -- there-
fore the downward pressure on numbers as wages increase.
Third, there is the principle of diminishing marginal productivity.
With a fixed quantity of capital, as additional units of manpower are
applied, after a given point each successive added unit contributes less
product or service than the previous unit. Therefore after the point
of diminishing marginal productivity has been reached, employers are
willing to hire more workers only at lower wages.
To forecast the demand for a particular kind of labor requires that
the micromanpower planner understand the changing technology of the agency
or industry, at least to the point of being able to forecast the need
for various types of labor. The planner must also be able to forecast
the availability of funds, a task fraught with danger. So subject is
this type of forecasting (in some jurisdictions) to the vagaries of
politics that attempting to forecast a given figure is impractical.
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Probably the best approach In these cases is to forecast or identify a
range of possible levels of expenditure for a particular function.
Where expenditures show stability, forecasts can be made with greater
certainty.
Not only must the manpower planner be able to forecast the need
for manpower and availability of funds for the agency or industry for
which he or she is planning, a general understanding must also be had
of the overall need for a particular type of manpower. If the type of
manpower in question is so highly specialized that only a given agency
or industry has need for it, then that becomes the market. The market
for a particular kind of manpower is generally much broader than a
particular agency or industry; therefore the demand for a particular
kind of labor is composed of the demands of all of the employers of that
particular kind of labor in that particular labor market. Consequently
the micromanpower planner must understand the aggregated demand for a
particular kind of labor.
The Microsupply of Labor
The microsupply of labor is defined as the quantities of a
particular kind of labor that will be offered at alternative wage rates
as of a given time and place. Supply, like demand, is shown in both
tabular and graphical forms, as seen in the following list and in
Figure 3.2.
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3-19
Wage Rates
$2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
Quantities Offered
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
W
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
FIGURE 3.2. Hypothetical Supply of Labor
It can be seen that the relationship between the wage rate and
quantity differs for supply from that for demand. It is just the opposite
In the case of supply, at alternatively higher rates, the quantity of
labor offered increases; as the wage rate declines, the quantity declines.
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3-20
Supply depends in some measure on the potential quantity of labor,
which in turn depends upon the size of the population available for that
particular kind of labor. The greater the size of the pertinent pop-
ulation, the greater the potential quantity of labor.
Supply also depends upon the cost and anticipated cost of develop-
ing the kind of labor needed. Some costs are socially assumed or sub-
sidized — much of the education, some health, and so on — while other
costs are assumed by purchasers of labor and others by the persons
performing a particular kind of labor.
Education and training are not free to persons receiving them,
even if all costs of tuition are assumed by society or employers. The
individual must still forego other wage-earning opportunities, must
forego leisure, expose himself or herself to pyschic costs, and so
forth. In order to get individuals to assume the costs of developing
skills needed in the marketplace, and offer their services, they must be
assured of sufficient income to compensate for these costs. Therefore
in general, the greater the wage, the greater will be the quantity of
labor offered for sale.
There are certain conditions in which the above described situation
does not prevail. As of a given point in time, the standard of living
of people is a constant. Should the wage be increased beyond the point
necessary to achieve that standard of living, the quantity of labor offer-
ed for sale may actually decline with increased wages, the incumbent
workers preferring leisure. In time, however, standards of living in-
crease and additional quantities of labor are made available, attracted
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3-21
by the high wages. In addition, security on the job as well as other
perquisites may sometimes substitute for wage increases.
It should be pointed out that the quantity of a particular kind
of skilled labor is limited at any given time. With an increase in
wage the quantity supplied will tend to increase. However, the more
highly skilled the labor, the longer it will take to increase the
quantity. The absence of appropriate training programs will also
lengthen the time necessary to prepare adequate numbers. In the mean-
time the wage level will have increased as a result of the shortage.
THE INTERACTION OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
To this point we have demonstrated two separate economic forces -
supply of and demand for a particular kind of labor, at a given time in
a given labor market. These two forces are each affected by their own
determinants and operate separately. They also interact in the market-
place through the market mechanism. The following list and Figure 3.3
illustrate this interaction.
Quantity
T.T^™^ Offered Demanded
$2.00 100 160
2.50 110 150
3-00 120 140
3-50 130 130
4.00 140 120
4.50 150 110
5.00 160 100
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Wage
Rates
3.50 '—
100 110 120 130 140 150 160
Quantity
FIGURE 3-3 Interaction of Supply and Demand
It may be seen that when the wage Is $3-50, the quantity offered
for sale equals the quantity demanded, namely 130 units of labor. Econ-
omists refer to $3.50 as the equilibrium wage, 130 units as the equilibrium
quantity, and the point where the supply and demand curves Intersect as
the point of equilibrium. Should demand and supply schedules be actual
measurements of reality, equilibrium would be the point toward which the
market forces would tend to push the wage rate.
Should the actual wage rate exceed the equilibrium rate, say at
$4.00, there would be more labor offered than demanded — the quantity
offered being 140, the quantity demanded being 120. There would be a
labor surplus tending to push wages downward. On the other hand should
the actual wage be below the equilibrium wage, say at $3.00, the quantity
of labor offered (120) would be below the quantity demanded (140). There
would be a labor shortage pushing wages upward. Therefore the actual
wage rate would be adjusted down or up until it equilibrates demand and
supply.
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The ease with which the market forces move depends on:
1. The absence of monopoly (single seller) and monopsony
(single buyer) power, which represent the power to control —
either by the suppliers or the demanders of labor, respect-
ively
2. The knowledge of demanders and suppliers
3- The mobility of demanders and suppliers
4. The presence or absence of government intervention
If there is no monopoly or monopsony power, no government, and
if there is perfect mobility and knowledge, there would be a perfect,
free market. As these conditions are not met, "imperfections" are
introduced which interfere with the operation of such a free and perfect
market.
In a free market, the wage rate would move freely. As supply
increases, as shown in A of Figure 3-4, the wage rate would decrease.
Should supply decrease as shown in B of the figure, the wage would in-
crease .
Wages
Wages
FIGURE 3. it.
Quantity Quantity
Increase and Decrease of Supply in a Free Market
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On the other hand, should the demand for labor increase, as
shown in A of Figure 3-5, the wage rate would increase, while the rate
would decrease should demand fall as shown in B of the figure. It may
therefore be seen that the equilibrium wage rate, the rate toward which
the actual wage rate tends, will increase either as a result of an in-
crease in demand or a decrease in supply; it will decrease with a de-
crease in demand or an increase in supply. Demand can be decreased by
B
Wages
$4.00
3.50
D D1
Wages
D
Quantity
Quantity
FIGURE 3-5- Increase and Decrease of Demand in a Free Market
decreasing the money available to be spent on a particular kind of
labor or decreasing the desire or need for the labor. Supply can be
increased by increasing population, increasing the labor force par-
ticipation rate of the appropriate groups of workers, or by decreasing
the costs to the individual workers of acquiring the needed skills,
as well as the cost of functioning in the postion. The "costs of
functioning" in a position are not only direct financial costs —
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3-25
transportation, clothing, food, and the like — but also psychic costs —
job dissatisfaction, low morale, bad supervision, and so on.
FORECASTING AND MEETING CHANGES IN SUPPLY OR DEMAND
As already indicated, the manpower planner is in the business not
only of describing and understanding present demand and supply, but also
in forecasting them, hoping to identify potential problems for which
corrective action can be taken. For example, let us assume that DD and
SS in Figure 3.6 represent current demand and supply. Let us also assume
that the manpower planner forecasts that because of the increase in the
need for a particular kind of labor (assuming that money is available),
the demand for labor will be at D'D' as shown in the figure. In addition,
let us assume that supply is constant, that it remains at SS. Should
that happen, the equilibrium wage would become $4.00. That is, if the
necessary labor to meet the increased need is to be acquired, the wage
would have to rise to $4.00. On the other hand, if action could be taken
to increase the supply of labor to S'S', the equilibrium wage would
remain constant at $3-50.
Wages
$4.00
3.50
Quantity
FIGURE 3-6. Changes of Demand and Supply
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3-26
A number of approaches can be taken to meet increased demand. One
would be to increase supply, which could be accomplished by increasing
training made available to workers or by improving working conditions.
Of course, an increase in the wage itself will call forth additional
labor. The manpower planner, in deciding on alternative courses of action
to propose to decision makers must take all possibilities into account.
Another possibility for meeting an increased demand is to change
the technology. For example, the technology in use may require highly
trained, scarce engineering technicians. It is often possible to alter
the technology to allow the same work to be performed by persons of lesser
skill who will therefore work at lower wages and are in greater supply.
If such action is taken, the projected increase in demand for the hard-
to-get manpower would be reduced.
There are several forces underlying the kind of technology developed
in the United States, as compared with most countries. Historically
this country has experienced labor shortages and relatively high wages.
In attempts to "economize," employers have, among other things, developed
labor-saving technology. Once such technology is in place, it becomes
difficult to return to former labor-intensive methods, self-interest
seeming to lie in the direction of continuing to develop labor-saving
devices requring higher levels of education and training.
Improvements in the use of labor constitute another form of
technological innovation, one that involves changes in the organization
of the work force rather than equipment. This form may make use of such
disciplines as industrial psychology, sociology, and personnel management,
as well as engineering. Among the diverse measures that it may embrace
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3-27
are changes in such things as job content, the channels of communication,
the chain of command, supervisory practices, the structure of wage
differentials, the method of wage payment, fringe benefits, and employee
selection procedures.
THE INTERNAL LABOR MARKET
f
The foregoing analysis has been a description of how a knowledge
of labor economics can contribute to manpower planning. It is essentially
a description of how external market forces operate to allocate labor
among the various employers and occupations, and how a given employer
may affect these forces to his own benefit. It does not, however, em-
brace all of the phenomena that a manpower planner must consider —
namely those of his internal labor market.
The term "internal labor market" refers to the fact that in the
typical firm or agency, a number of jobs tend to be filled by promotion
or transfer from within rather than by new hires. The compensation paid
such jobs and the other satisfactions attached to them are less subject
to market forces than is true for port-of-entry jobs (i.e., the jobs that
are normally filled from external sources). In other words, employers
may adopt any of a number of promotion policies and wage structures
relative to their Internal jobs without much affecting their ability to
attract workers for their entry-level jobs. Of course, this discretion
is not unlimited. Prospective employees will distinguish among employers
according to what the opportunities are for promotion and wage increases.
Yet to the degree that employers do have discretion, they will have to
make decisions regarding their promotional policies and wage structures
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on such considerations as effect on employee morale, union attitude,
and conformity with the employees' or the employer's sense of equity,
rather than out of concern for the supply of labor that will be forth-
coming from the market.
Both labor economists and manpower planners will be interested
in promotion policies and internal wage structures as they affect labor
costs and supply schedules. Beyond these concerns, however, the manpower
planner will in addition have to anticipate that turnover, promotions,
and transfers will occur and hence be prepared with training programs
and other arrangements to improve the process.
Labor Turnover
Turnover feeds both demand and supply. On the demand side it gives
rise to replacement demand. On the supply side the number of workers
available at a given wage rate is inflated by it because some workers
are always in the process of changing employers. In other words, the
economist's supply and demand schedules are the net of turnover.
This may be illustrated in the following way. Assume a wage rate
W at which employer E is willing to hire Q amount of labor (Figure 3-7) •
Assume further that at this wage rate, Q amount of labor is willing to
work for E and has been employed by him. Demand and supply are in bal-
ance. Assume that soon one employee will retire. At the same time a new
graduate or dropout from high school will be entering the market and will
be willing to work for E at wage rate W. Prom the economist's point
of view, so long as Q is the amount of labor willing to work for E and that
E is willing to hire, the wage rate remaining at W, there has been no
change in the supply and demand schedules. The numbers of "retirees"
and of new graduates is immaterial, so long as they are equal.
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3-29
D
W-
Q
FIGURE 3.7. The Net Economic Effect of Offsetting Internal Adjustments
Yet from the manpower planner's point of view, the fact that an
employee will soon retire will increase replacement demand by one, so
that plans must be made to assure that a high school graduate or drop-
out will find his or her way to employer E, Furthermore, the larger the
number of prospective retirees, the larger the problem. More is involved
than simply assuring that the right namber of new graduates is attracted
to E (a matter of recruitment); plans must also be made to give them the
proper training. Finally, the chances are good that the new hires will
not occupy the same jobs that were vacated by the retirees. Instead,
they will probably fill entry-level jobs made vacant by a series of
promotions whereby senior employees fill the vacancies left by the retirees
Needless to say, the foregoing discussion would not have changed much had
it been illustrated with vacancies created by death, quits, or discharges.
Certification
The supply of and demand for labor in some agencies and industries
are likely to be affected by two developments currently in progress in
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3-30
many areas: (1) requirements for certification and (2) unionization.
The drive to require certification will, if successful, probably
affect both the supply of and demand for workers.
The long-run effect of certification (in the sense of extending
beyond a transitional period during which the industry will be faced
with the necessity of replacing noncertified with certified persons)
will be to decrease supply by increasing the cost of becoming a worker.
That is, the same number of operators can be hired only at a higher
wage or fewer workers hired at the same rate. This is illustrated
in Figure 3-8.
Hourly
Wage
Rate
and
Hourly
Labor
Cost
$3.75
$3.50
$3.00
D
8 10
Number of Operators
FIGURE 3.8. Decrease in Supply Because of Certification
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3-31
Let us assume that in a given city, the local wastewater treat-
ment plant, with existing demand (DD) and supply (SS) prior to the
certification requirement had been able to hire ten operators at an
hourly wage rate of $3.00. Suppose further that ten operators were
both its budgeted and recommended employment. Now, as a result of the
certification requirement, a training program must be instituted to
provide operators to fill the jobs created by turnover or plant expansion,
Let us assume that this program, when prorated over man-hours of employ-
ment, costs $0.(75 per man-hour. The effect would be to shift the supply
s-chedule from SS to S'S1, with the vertical distance between them being
equal to $0.75. The hourly cost of employing ten operators has risen
to $3.75. It makes no difference from this point of view whether the
city continues to pay a wage of $3-00 and absorbs the $0.75, or whether
the city raises the wage to $3-75, requiring the operators to absorb the
entire cost of training.
The probable outcome is that the number of budgeted positions will
be reduced to eight, at an hourly labor cost of $3-50. One arrangement
that would be compatible with this solution would be for the city to
absorb $0.50 of the hourly training cost, while leaving the wage rate
at $3.00. Such a solution would of course create a budgetary shortfall
of two positions, down to eight from ten employees.
There are only two ways, illustrated in Figure 3-9, in which the
original level of employment of ten operators can be restored. Either
the city council will have to be persuaded to become more liberal toward
financing the plant, increasing demand to D'D', or the job will have to
be made more attractive to labor in a way that does not raise the hourly
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3-32
labor cost, increasing supply back to SS. In other words, either
the demand curve or the supply curve will have to shift to the right,
as in the figure. If it is the supply curve that increases, it means
that the ten operators will be willing to pay the entire training cost
out of their $3-00 per hour wage, or that they will be willing to work
for a wage of $2.25, with the city picking up the training tab.
Hourly
Labor
Cost
$3.75
$3.50
$3.00
8 10
Number of Operators
FIGURE 3.9. Increasing Demand or
Decreasing Supply to Maintain
Recommended Level of Employment
D
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3-33
The Effect of Negotiated Wages
One of the things a union typically seeks is to obtain higher
wages or "wage packets" for its members than they would otherwise receive,
"Wages" here include both the hourly rates and the entire package of
fringe benefits (which may embrace such diverse items as paid holidays,
vacations, sick leave, medical insurance, separation pay, a pension plan,
and so forth). If the union is successful, management will agree not
to employ any workers below the wage that has been negotiated. Such an
arrangement will cause the supply curve to take on a different shape.
In Figure 3-10, let us assume that prior to unionization, an
agency in a given city was employing ten workers at an hourly wage of
$3-00. Let us further assume that both budgeted and recommended employ-
ment were equal to ten operators. The supply curve is SS, indicating
the number of operators that can be attracted to the plant at various
wages. Now assume that through collective bargaining a wage of $3-50
Is negotiated. The supply curve is now S'S'. The demand curve reveals
that if the city council's attitude toward funding the plant has remained
unchanged, only eight positions will now be budgeted. On the other
hand, the supply curve reveals that as many as twelve operators would
have been available at the negotiated rate of pay. Unless the city
council can be induced to adopt a more liberal funding policy toward
the plant (portrayed by a shift in the demand curve to the right to
D'D'), a budgetary shortfall of two positions will develop.
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Wages
per
Hour
$3.50
$3.00
D
D!
D
8 10 12
Number of Workers
FIGURE 3.10. Meeting an Increased
Negotiated Wage Through
and Increased Demand
SUMMARY
In this chapter we have reviewed some elementary but important
aspects of labor economics. We have emphasized these aspects of labor
economics that particularly Impinge upon activities for which the man-
power planner will be responsible. We readily acknowledge that for those
readers who have not previously studied economics, the material in this
chapter will not be easy to understand. Its importance In manpower
planning is of such magnitude, however, that its deletion would seriously
handicap planners in correctly doing their work. Many of the factors that
affect the work the planners must do, as well as the efficacy of completed
work, have economic content. One is only to mention inflation, unemploy-
ment, government manpower training programs, wages, and taxes to recognize
the prevailing influence of economic factors. We hope that manpower
planners will dedicate themselves to mastering these basic principles
and that they will in fact take it upon themselves to extend their field
of study beyond the material contained In this chapter.
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HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS
Solving national, state, and local problems will require a major
manpower effort. This is a commonplace fact of the age in which we
live -- the age of manpower, of education, of human resources. What-
ever the current issue, be it law and order, community health, national
defense, reduction of poverty, or the protection of our environment,
the critical resource is trained manpower: physical and social scien-
tists, engineers and technicians, and those workers with social as
well as manipulative skills.
The results of a study conducted by the National Planning
Association (NPA) will illustrate the challenge of acquiring the
necessary manpower to achieve certain goals. Considering a series
of national goals identified in I960 by a national commission estab-
lished by President Eisenhower, NPA asked, "If we seriously set out
to achieve these goals, would we have enough manpower to do them all?"
The answer was an unqualified "No!" If we want rising living standards
including both private and public goods and services; national defense;
better health care; improved education; adequate recreational facili-
ties; cultural amenities; resource conservation and development;
housing; a clean, attractive, and healthy environment; and all the
rest — we cannot have them all at once. We must therefore establish
priorities among these goals and organize our resources efficiently
to achieve as many of them as possible. To this end we must plan
the development of human resources to enable them to make the greatest
possible contribution to the achievement of these national goals.
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ROLE OF THE MICROMANPOWER PLANNER IN
HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
The micromanpower planner is charged with the primary respon-
sibility of satisfying the manpower needs of the organization within
which he operates. In meeting this responsibility, the manpower
planner must identify the number and kind of workers that are needed
and at which particular time and place they will be needed. (The
methodology used in identifying such needs will be developed subse-
quently.) The micromanpower planner must then plan to meet these
identified needs through the development of human resources. Develop-
ing the needed human resources will require that the micromanpower
planner: (1) be familiar with the existing human resource develop-
ment institutions, (2) determine the extent to which these Institutions
can provide the needed manpower, and (3) work with these institutions
to maximize their contributions to human resource development. Any
deficiency in the ability of existing Institutions to meet human
resource needs will require that the manpower planner become involved
either in the adjustment of existing institutions or in the creation
of new institutions. It is with the human resource development institu-
tional framework of the United States that we shall be concerned in
this chapter.
While the micromanpower planner's primary function is to engage
in those activities that will ensure that his organization's manpower
needs be satisfied, the psychology of today's labor force and the
human-oriented training of the professional manpower planner require
that his activities go beyond merely meeting the identifiable
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4-3
institutional needs. Today's workers demand the opportunity to
develop to the maximum of their potential as human beings. This
means the opportunity: (1) to become educated to the extent capable,
desired, and needed to compete in a modern world; (2) to become trained
with an occupational skill needed by the society within which one
lives; and (3) to have the opportunity to put that knowledge and skill
to effective use and in so doing, provide for one's personal needs.
The micromanpower planner must understand and accept these personal,
people-oriented needs and seek a mutual accommodation with the needs
of his or her agency or industry. The exciting thing about manpower
planning is that personal human needs can usually be met at the same
time that the institutional needs are satisfied. The extent to which
the manpower planner is successful in accommodating these needs will
determine his or her ultimate success as a professional.
If these needs are to be met, it is required that in addition
to a vigorous and growing economy which will provide job opportunities,
there be:
1. An education system providing sufficient education and voca-
tional training to enable all citizens to develop their
human potentials to the maximum, thus enabling them to
compete in the labor market
2. An employment system providing the educated and trained
labor force with the opportunity to take advantage of employ-
ment opportunities which will best use their talents
THE EDUCATION SYSTEM
The American education system began early in the history of
the United States. The founding fathers saw the need for the
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encouragement of the educational process. Under the Land Ordinance
of 1785, 1/36 of the land in new territories was set aside for sup-
port of educational activities, with most states adding a like amount
for a total of 1/18 of the land to benefit the common schools. This
Act was followed by the Merrill Act of 1862, which granted land as
an endowment for state colleges dedicated to education in the agri-
cultural and mechanical arts. Most of these schools later added
education in business and industry and played a key role through their
extension services in the development of the most productive agri-
cultural system in the world.
By the turn of the century, a major schism had developed in
the ranks of education. One group, the generalists, maintained that
the major purpose of high school was to prepare students for college
and that undergraduate work was to emphasize a liberal education in
culture and theory. Little or no attention was given to preparing
people for a "job." On the other hand, the "vocationalists" looked
upon people as human economic resources and maintained the need to
prepare them throughout the educational process with skills needed
in the labor market. John Dewey, who saw the benefits to be derived
from the preparation of worker-citizens and the danger of a bifurcated
education system, tried but could not heal the breach. The generalists
prevailed to the neglect of vocational education. It was generally
felt that a general education was enough — "Let industry do its own
training."
To aid in meeting the demands for skilled manpower in World
War I, Congress passed the Smith-Hughes Act of 1917 which provided
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4-5
federal grants on a matching basis to states for vocational education,
Throughout the following years, the federal government remained the
prime sponsor of vocational education. The original list of voca-
tional programs allowed under Smith-Hughes — agricultural, trade,
industry, and home economics — was later expanded to include dis-
tributive education and secretarial training. On the state level,
however, the generalists prevailed, with the resulting neglect by
the state and local school districts of vocational education. While
traditional high schools and state colleges secured new buildings
and the best students, vocational education inherited the castoffs,
in terms of buildings, students, and all too frequently, teachers.
It became too often the neglected stepchild.
In 1963, following many years of intensive debate, in response
to the manpower revolution of that decade, the Vocational Education
Act was passed (subsequently amended). This act constituted one of
the most significant developments in the evolution of a system for
human resource development. The restrictions of the old vocational
education legislation were removed. For the first time, vocational
education was to be people (human) rather than program oriented. The
Act emphasized assistance to the individual in preparing for employ-
ment and keeping up to date with the knowledge and skills needed by
the job market. Programs could cut across all occupations except
those requiring at least a bachelor's degree. They could involve
people of all ages and preparation levels. Research and experimenta-
tion were provided. Area vocational schools were also encouraged.
And most importantly, the federal funds available were significantly
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increased. The result has been more attractive physical plants,
younger and more competent staffs, and, consequently, a range of
student quality from the least able to the most capable. The phys-
ically, socially, and economically handicapped (disadvantaged) are
singled out for special attention. Vocational education has become
a full-fledged and fully accepted part of the academic community,
cutting across the wide range of community interests.
Perhaps a return to John Dewey's philosophy of education calling
for worker-citizens is becoming possible. An education system which
concentrates on developing the manipulative as well as the intellectual
skills, which gives to all students the real option to select and.
prepare for a career which may emphasize one or the other, might
better meet our needs. To give our students that real choice, train-
ing for manipulative skills should be as honored and supported as
training in intellectual skills. Manipulative training should contain
sufficient content to provide the opportunity for change to the other
approach. By the same token, the student who first selects the more
intellectual approach should have as a real option the transfer to
a manipulative-oriented program. To make such a. transfer possible
requires the removal of psychological and other barriers now existing.
The concept of career education as seen later can aid in this process.
General School System
Historically, the American education system has begun with the
five- or six-year-olds, either in kindergarten or the first grade.
Increasingly, however, educational opportunities are being given to
three- and four-year-old preschoolers in private or quasi-private
-------
nursery schools. The federal Headstart program provides funds for
preschool programs, primarily for children from disadvantaged homes.
As mothers with preschool age children enter or reenter the labor
market, the need for preschool educational programs increases.
Grades 1 through 8 concentrate their attention on developing
reading, writing, speaking and computational skills as well as an
understanding of the world in which we live. However, manipulative
skills are generally neglected after kindergarten. While the emphasis
in grades 9 through 12 is usually on the same order as the earlier
grades, some schools include vocational courses which begin to develop
manipulative vocational skills as well as some appreciation of voca-
tional opportunities after high school. These programs still suffer
somewhat from the traditional view that only the troublemakers and
less capable students find their way into such programs, though there
is some evidence that this attitude may be breaking down. One of
the major problems facing the manpower planner is that individuals
just finishing high school, or those who have dropped out, are seldom
prepared for much more than laborer kinds of entry-level jobs which
seem to be diminishing. The dropout, because of his frequent lack
of abilities obtained from a general education (e.g., reading, writing,
speaking, computation, and general understanding), is frequently
limited in his ability to be promoted without additional education.
The high school graduate, who has taken full advantage of the educa-
tional program, usually has the general skills needed to make advance-
ments on the job. However, he frequently lacks practical knowledge
and manipulative skills, which many entry-level jobs require. The
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high school diploma and the graduation equivalency diploma (GED),
generally speaking, unless only given for social reasons, can be
assumed to give a student sufficient basic education to handle lower
entry-level jobs.
The continued development of the "career education" concept as
seen later should eventually merge the academic or traditional educa-
tion with vocational education, both being important in developing
and maintaining a career.
Vocational Schools
An important arm of the education system is vocational schools,
public and private, that accept individuals often regardless of
educational credentials and train them in a particular vocation.
These schools pay little attention to so-called general education —
the humanities, fine arts, sciences, and social sciences. The training,
though generally narrow, provides students with the skills to obtain
employment in narrow occupational fields such as barbering, secretarial,
plumbing, heating, electrical, computer technology, and so forth.
Theoretical underpinnings are often neglected in favor of the practical.
From the viewpoint of the individual, the chief disadvantage of such
schools is that a particular skill may become obsolete, of little or
no economic value; and unless the individual has continued with his
"education," he may be at a disadvantage in a changing labor market.
This disadvantage is overcome by looking at the training in the voca-
tional school not as something that is final, but only as a step in
"career education." From the viewpoint of manpower planning, such
graduates can be used in operator- or craftsman-type jobs; but without
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additional, more generalized education, they are usually limited,
or at least thought to be limited, in their ability to advance.
Two-Year Colleges
Identified as the most rapidly growing sector of the American
education system, the two-year college helps to bridge the gap created
by the nature of the development of most four-year colleges. There
are generally three kinds of two-year colleges: technical, community,
and junior. Some feel that this continued growth is the result of
their technical and vocational orientation.
The technical colleges concentrate primarily on programs to
train people in vocational and manipulative skills, but with an
increasing amount of general and theoretical background. They grant
certificates for completion of certain short-term courses and fre-
quently grant associate degrees for the completion of two-year programs
Many try to integrate their work with the university so that their
credits are transferrable. Operators, technicians, and skilled workers
are often products of these schools.
Community colleges emphasize education service to the whole
community and are frequently much like technical colleges in what
they emphasize and in the programs they offer. Increasingly, these
colleges are "open schools," admitting all applicants and then helping
them move from their present educational levels to wherever they wish
to move. Much impetus was given to this trend by the inclusion of
manpower training skills centers at community colleges under the old
Manpower Development and Training Act (MDTA) program.
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Junior colleges may have much the same characteristics as
technical and community colleges. The more traditional junior colleges
do, however, constitute a stepping stone to the four-year college
and university — either for those who wish to improve upon their
high school preparation or for those who wish a less expensive first
two years in their post-high school educational program. Associate
degrees are usually granted by junior colleges, and sometimes there
are limited vocational programs available.
Four-Year Colleges
The more traditional post-high school college has been the four-
year college or university offering bachelors' degrees. Such institu-
tions are usually characterized as providing what is called a "liberal
education," though some schools also offer vocational programs. A
person may major in the humanities, fine arts, sciences, or social
sciences. These students are seldom prepared for a job as such,
though their more general and theoretical training may prepare them
for learning one of a wide variety of primarily white-collar occupations
Many employers look to these graduates as potential managers
who require a more generalized background than is provided in tech-
nical and vocational schools. The graduates of science programs can
often assume, with a minimum amount of additional training, a tech-
nology-type job. A substantial number of graduates of four-year
colleges continue on to graduate school. The mid-1970s saw a decline
in the enrollment growth of four-year colleges.
Post-Graduate Universities
Long considered the ultimate in education are the post-graduate
universities which include the programs and philosophies of the
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four-year colleges but in addition offer graduate programs with
masters' and doctorate degrees. They frequently Include such pro-
fessional programs as law, engineering, dentistry, business, medicine,
and the like. The graduates of these schools are usually classified
as professionals and scientists — at the top of the educational
spectrum. As with four-year colleges, graduate schools began to
have their enrollment problems in 1973-
Continuing Education
High schools, two-year colleges, four-year colleges, and univer-
sities frequently have continuing or adult education programs and
short courses designed for adults who are not enrolled as full-time
students and frequently do not intend to get a degree but merely want
to continue their educations as circumstances permit. Such programs
offer real opportunities for upgrading the abilities of full-time
employees. They are usually quite flexible in the courses they offer,
and there are seldom any entrance requirements. They are generally
held at night, although vocational and technical schools and com-
munity colleges also cater to this type of student in daytime offer-
ings. Adult basic education is often available, financed by federal
funds, enabling adults with deficiencies in English, mathematics,
and other basic education to learn or relearn these subjects. It is
frequently possible to obtain a GED which is generally acceptable as
the equivalent of a high school diploma. Such education frequently
establishes a base permitting people previously condemned to dead-end,
low-paying jobs to develop the skills needed for occupational and
economic upgrading. English as a second language is often offered
for students with language problems.
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Cooperative Education
While most daytime educational programs have little or no on-
the-job training components, some schools have developed cooperative
educational programs which build into the educational process the
opportunity to work for remuneration under educational direction and
often for credit. These programs enable students to earn while they
learn, and for some they provide a superior form of motivation for
the learning process as they are assisted in relating their theoret-
ical training to an actual job.
Employer-Sponsored Education and Training Programs
Many of the larger employers offer education and training programs
for their employees. These are of two primary types: external and
internal. Some employers pay for the tuition and books and grant
free time or any combination of these for employees to enroll in
courses and programs, usually directly related to their present jobs
or in preparation for advancement. Large firms also frequently have
internal training programs in which they either bring in instructors
under employer auspices or develop their own cadre of instructors for
the purpose of upgrading and updating their staffs. Internal programs
have the advantage of giving the employer greater control over what
the employees learn, and the training can be tied directly to their
unique operations. There is less transferability of knowledge and
greater direct, more immediate benefits to the employer. One of the
problems may be employee receptivity.
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Correspondence and Programmed Learning Courses
Correspondence courses are often available to employees, with
employers sometimes financing these courses if they are closely
enough related to the employees' work. Somewhat related to the
traditional correspondence course is the self-instruction or pro-
grammed learning course. Such a course may be tailor-made to a
particular employer's operation, with a minimum amount of instructor
activity and a maximum amount of self-teaching. Such programs are
especially helpful for orientation and at lower levels of competence,
though of less value at the more sophisticated levels. The same
kinds of programs are also available in more general types of learning
such as accounting, simple mathematics, grammar, and so on.
From the social point of view, employer education and training
programs have the deficiency of being generally limited to those of
demonstrated superiority to the neglect of those who have had inferior
opportunities. The National Alliance of Businessmen's Job Opportun-
ities in the Business Sector (NAB-JOBS) program helps to bridge this
gap through federal financing of training for disadvantaged people.
Apprenticeship Programs
In some of the more highly skilled trades or crafts, formal
apprenticeship programs are available. Usually under the joint spon-
sorship of management and the labor union, with relevant jurisdiction
in a carefully structured and controlled program of mostly on-the-
job training, an apprentice working with an experienced journeyman
is trained carefully in each phase of the trade or skill. These
programs last usually from two to five years, at the end of which
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time the apprentice becomes a journeyman. There is sometimes conflict
between labor unions which promote these programs and vocational
schools which attempt to shorten the period of training required for
'a skilled craftworker through formal classroom and on-the-job training.
From the social point of view, these programs have in the past worked
to the disadvantage of racial minority groups that have been system-
atically excluded from such programs. Equal employment laws and
regulations enforced on management and unions alike, as well as a
change in attitudes by many, should in time eliminate this form of
discrimination, especially where federal funds are used and laws
enforced.
State and Local Roles in Education
At the state level, the highest authority in education is usually
vested in a single board which provides policy direction to special-
ized segments of the education system. The state board for elementary
and secondary education will usually provide for the establishment
of local administrative units called school districts. One of the
unique characteristics of American education is the extent to which
schools are administered by local authorities operating independently
under local boards. The theory supporting this practice argues that
local control will permit education to reflect and be responsive to
the will of the local electorate and taxpayer. In very few cases will
local school districts be concerned with manpower planning as an on-
going activity. Most school districts will look to the state depart-
ment of education for guidance in this area. The few exceptions to
this general procedure are the large metropolitan school districts or
specialized regional vocational education districts.
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Within most state education systems there is (either as a
separate board or under the general board) an authority to administer
the state's higher education, post-secondary system. There is also
a vocational education office charged with the responsibility for
promoting vocational education through the school system of the state.
There is sometimes conflict over the location of responsibility for
the administration of post-secondary vocational education. Many
vocational educators and their promoters do not feel comfortable (in
fact, feel discriminated against) when controlled by university- and
college-oriented boards and have moved in the direction of separate
boards.
Purpose of Education — A Career
The purpose of education differs, depending upon the framework
of reference. From the point of view of_the individual, it is a
means of providing for his needs — physical, mental, psychological,
social, political, and spiritual. From the viewpoint of society, it
is to develop an enlightened citizenry capable of self-government
and self-support. From the viewpoint of the employer, it is to pre-
pare productive workers. Examining this latter function in greater
detail, we find that general education should prepare a person to
make adjustment to entry-level jobs in the minimum amount of time
and with the minimum amount of expense to the employer. The employer
does not want to have to teach new employees how to read, write, and
speak English, or how to do simple arithmetic.
There are those who maintain that there is not necessarily a
dichotomy between the philosophies of the generalists and the
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vocatlonalists. They recognize that the ultimate purpose of the
education system must include both citizenship and vocational ability.
Essential to this double-headed objective is general education and
vocational training directed toward the development of "careers"
by the citizenry. This means that children must be taught to read,
write, and compute, but in addition they must be taught manipulative
skills and positive work attitudes.
Most employers expect that their employees will have been
developed to a given point in these attributes, with the employer
providing orientation into his particular operation, along with the
training necessary for upgrading of their own employees, with some
continued assistance at the more theoretical and general levels by
the education system. This upgrade education and training provides
workers with the opportunity, should they so desire, for higher level
jobs providing them with upward mobility, retreading, and morale
building. The employer benefits by the provision of workers with
the ability to take advantage of the latest technology, enabling the
firm to become or remain competitive or to become more efficient if
in a noncompetitive position.
One of the most promising developments within the educational
establishment in making effective Dewey's concept of the worker-
citizen is what is called "career education." Promoted by the U.S.
Office of Education, the concept is relatively simple: Educational
establishments are being nudged in the direction of educating students
for careers rather than educating them for college or for a job. To
accomplish such an education requires that students obtain a wide
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acquaintance with the "world of work." Such an acquaintance should
be developed throughout a student's school life and should permeate
the entire curriculum. While very general at the elementary level
the secondary student makes a tentative selection of a career area,
each career area encompassing all levels of skill and conceptualiza-
tion. This selection is followed by the development of the skills
needed in that career field, enabling the student to secure a job
upon exit from school, whether by dropout or graduation. Whichever
the form of exit, the system would encourage reentry for the develop-
ment of additional skills and concepts as needed for continued career
development. This concept envisions education as a means to an end —
a career — rather than solely as an end in itself. It constitutes
a real investment in human capital.
The concept of "career education" eliminates the supposed di-
chotomy between generalists and vocationalists and merges the interest?
of the employees with those of the employers. Conceptually it involve;
low-level, entry-level jobs within a career field, providing the
opportunity for school dropouts and low-skill people to perform within
the limits of their current capacity. But it also provides "career
ladders" with clearly defined routes of progress and clearly defined
requirements and aids for that progress. Continued progress in a
"career ladder" may involve more formal vocational or general educa-
tion, requiring night classes (in house or out of house), or it may
require a leave for full-time educational or training activities for
a given period, with reentry into the labor force. Continued progress
up the ladder may involve repeats of this exit-entry process.
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The same system that provides for upgrading for the career
ladder will also provide the support necessary for retraining in
a lateral move to a new career ladder should the one prove inadequate
or transient. All of this requires great flexibility on the part of
workers, employers, and the educational establishment. But the out-
come should bring people closer to Dewey's concept of worker-citizens.
FEDERAL ROLE IN EDUCATION
While historically education has been considered as primarily
the function of local and state government, with the private sector
fundamentally concerned with colleges and universities, the federal
government has come to play a significant role. The Office of Educa-
tion in the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, has been
given prime responsibility for aiding in the development of an educa-
tion system which will promote national goals as formulated by Congress,
the Supreme Court, the President, and the federal educational bureauc-
racy. USOE has established and staffed regional offices which work
closely with state and local agencies as well as monitor the progress
of federal contracts and grants to various education and research
agencies. In addition, USOE, assisted by its regional offices, col-
lects, analyzes, and disseminates data needed within the educational
establishment.
Within USOE is the Bureau of Adult, Vocational, and Library
Programs which is directing its primary efforts toward two groups:
(1) the high school dropouts and the graduates, both of whom are in
need of specialized training for immediate employment, and (2) people
in the labor force who need retraining to keep up with technological
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change. Within the regional offices of HEW a manpower coordinator
(discussed later) has been appointed to coordinate the regional man-
power efforts of the disparate functions of the agency.
At the national level, USOE while a part of HEW, has had a great
deal of autonomy. For a decade it had joint manpower responsibilities
with the Department of Labor, being a signator to manpower develop-
ment' projects with responsibility to approve such along with the Labor
Department, and with primary responsibility for overseeing the educa-
tional and training aspects of manpower development projects.
One of the USOE's greatest contributions was the development
of skills centers, designed for the encouragement of disadvantaged
people to obtain the educational and vocational skills necessary to
compete in the marketplace. Typically disadvantaged people have a
much shorter range of goals. To them the future is not far off. The
skills centers recognized this characteristic and helped their clients
to set short-range goals, easily met, but which would lead to greater
and more adequate involvement in the world of work. While HEW had
ultimate responsibility, it was USOE that had the working responsibility.
HEW officials were little involved, even in meetings at the national
level.
The Department finally came to recognize that it had manpower
responsibilities that went far beyond those of USOE. Divisions or
offices within HEW with substantial manpower responsibilities and
implications were: vocational education, vocational rehabilitation,
adult basic education, remedial education, health, and child care.
These manpower elements needed some focus, some coordination at the
national level, as well as the regional level.
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The outcome of this recognition was the creation of the Office
of Manpower with an assistant secretary who is charged to develop
a strategic approach whereby the effectiveness of HEW manpower services
and service delivery could be improved. With the decentralization
of the Labor Department's manpower activities, especially with the
passage of the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) in
1973, HEW began to move in the direction of decentralization of at
least its manpower functions to the regional level, with regional
manpower coordination staffs functioning directly under the HEW re-
gional directors. The regional HEW manpower coordinator was given
the following responsibilities:
1. Coordinate the HEW manpower elements of all major HEW
program areas
2. Work with regional Labor Department personnel on the imple-
mentation of its regional responsibilities under CETA
3- Develop a regional information flow, tying in with HEW
and the Labor Department but in support of local and state
prime sponsors
4. Provide technical assistance to prime sponsors, when re-
quested, and to state education agencies relative to their
CETA responsibilities
5. Develop overall review processes of CETA projects with HEW
involvement
6. Participate with the Labor Department in training prime
sponsor staffs for operation under CETA
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In theory there should be a close coordination between CETA
and various elements of the HEW manpower-related programs in the
development of the manpower potential of disadvantaged persons.
Under previous legislation, especially MDTA, there were formal ties
required by law. Under CETA, any continued ties were at the option
of the local and state CETA structures. As might be expected, the
records of these ties since December of 1973 has been spotty. There
is nationwide evidence that the desired coordination is lacking and
that local public educational institutions and programs are being
neglected by CETA prime sponsors. One of the more serious problems
is that prime sponsors follow political boundaries that do not neces-
sarily conform to labor market areas, whereas, effective manpower
planning other than micromanpower planning is ideally done for a
labor market area. When two or more political jurisdictions are
involved in a labor market, coordination of manpower planning is most
difficult.
THE EMPLOYMENT SERVICE SYSTEM AND THE
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
It is a mistake to assume that the preparation of an individual
through the education system automatically assures that he or she
will become a part of the labor force. The next step in entering
the labor force after obtaining an education, while usually not as
time-consuming, nevertheless is not automatic, nor is it easy. Indi-
viduals must convince an employer that there is a need for their
services. As for private employment agencies — their interest and
involvement goes little beyond placement. It was the development of
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the public employment service system that provided the second major
element of a human resource development establishment.
Its Evolution
Until the 1930s, job hunting and placement were haphazard.
Most people were hired off the streets or through friends, though
some firing had developed fairly sophisticated personnel departments
to screen job applicants. Private employment offices existed for
certain kinds of jobs but were frequently characterized by exploita-
tion of job seekers. During World War I, a nationwide public employ-
ment service was organized to meet the labor demands of that period.
However, during the 1920s it was allowed to atrophy almost to a point
of extinction. Under the authority of the Wagner-Peyser Act of 1933,
the beginnings of a new national employment system were laid, with
state employment services to be financed on a matching basis from
general funds. In 1935, the Social Security Act was passed, estab-
lishing the basic system of today. States had the opportunity of
establishing employment services to be financed 100 percent from
federal funds coming from a federal unemployment compensation tax on
employers. All states eventually took advantage of the opportunity
and established state employment service agencies.
During the remainder of the prewar years, these state services
were mainly concerned with screening welfare and work-relief partici-
pants through the application of "ready, willing, and able-to-work" .
tests. The system was federalized shortly after the outbreak of World
War II, being placed under the War Manpower Commission and given the
primary responsibility to allocate scarce manpower. Following the
war, the Employment Act of 19^6 was passed, declaring that:
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It is the continuing policy and responsibility of the
federal government to use all practicable means con-
sistent with its need and obligations and other essential
considerations of national policy with the assistance
and cooperation of industry, agriculture, labor, and
state and local governments, to coordinate and utilize
all its plans, functions, and resources for the purpose
of creating and maintaining, in a manner calculated
to foster and promote free competitive enterprise and
the general welfare, conditions under which there will
be afforded useful employment opportunities, including
self-employment, for those able, willing, and seeking
to work, and to promote maximum employment, production,
and purchasing power.
Despite this legislative injunction, the service was allowed to atrophy
again, its primary function being an "unemployment agency" respon-
sible for handling unemployment compensation claims and matching
a few job orders with the larger number of available workers.
In 1958, Secretary of Labor James P. Mitchell gave a speech
in which he criticized the service for failing to act adequately as
a placement agency. This criticism released several forces which
began to develop the service into what was designated by some author-
ities as a "community manpower service center," with its major function
"human resource development." In some states, it has virtually
become such; while in others, it remains as the "unemployment office."
Organization and Functional Operations
of the Employment Service
Beginning in 1962, in response to the "manpower revolution" of
that decade, the employment service began to take on expanded re-
sponsibility as a manpower agency concerned with all aspects of man-
power. Each employment center was to become a community manpower
center, operating within a state and a nationwide network. To achieve
its goal of a more efficient labor market involved not only in the
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employer's interest but also in that of the clients, the employment
service was required to become associated with employers, unions,
schools, and community development efforts. With the plethora of
manpower programs of the 1960s, its involvement would have to expand
to include the myriad of federal manpower programs as well as programs
providing ancillary services. No longer was the employment service
to merely wait for jobs to be listed with it. It was to seek new job
orders and to seek and place clients.
To accomplish its goals, the employment service has had the
traditional tools of testing, counseling, referrals, and payment of
unemployment compensation. Beginning with the "war on poverty," it
was expected to assist clients not meeting employer standards by work-
ing with vocational educators to establish training courses in fields
they had determined was "reasonable expectation of employment." In
addition, it was expected to recruit and screen unemployed and under-
employed persons for those training programs, training to be followed
by placement efforts and even follow-up activities to assure that
placement really took.
Another tool is "relocation." The employment service has had
limited funds to use in assisting clients to relocate, moving from
areas of high unemployment to areas of manpower shortages or low un-
employment. When coupled with education and training, it has the
potential power to improve the functioning of the labor market. Un-
fortunately, the employment service funds have been too limited to
contribute significantly to the solution of unemployment through
relocation.
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For a time, the employment service was so concerned with its
antipoverty client orientation that it ran the danger of losing the
confidence of the employers who became wary of its referrals. Re-
cently, however, the service has moved to a more balanced position,
that of providing the best possible service to all elements of the
community, and employers are increasingly using its services. Federal
agencies and contractors are required by law to list job openings
with the employment service.
Some of the activities of the now defunct Office of Economic
Opportunity (OEO), especially the community action agencies, in
setting up competitive service centers which reached out to the youth
and the poor, induced the employment service to add to its services
Youth Opportunity Centers (near central city ghettos) and other "out-
reach" activities, seeking potential clients hesitant to come into
its centers. This included mobile employment service offices to
better serve the various communities not provided with a permanent
office. Also added were minority consultants to whom racial minorities
could better relate. While OEO and the Youth Opportunity Centers
are moribund, their concepts and lessons live on in CETA projects.
In 1968, the employment service was given responsibility to
provide manpower services to Concentrated Employment Programs (CEP),
to train and place welfare recipients in the Work Incentive (WIN)
program, to recruit disadvantaged people for Job Opportunities in
the Business Sector (NAB-JOBS), and to lead in the establishment of
the old Cooperative Area Manpower Planning System (CAMPS). With the
winding down and end of military involvement they were given special
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responsibilities in aiding veterans back into the labor market. CEP
and CAMPS, too, are dead as programs, but experience with them better
prepared employment service personnel to be involved in the develop-
ment of manpower.
Considerable internal turmoil was involved in these changes
and additions, resulting in the elimination of the Bureau of Employ-
ment Service and the creation and regionalization of the U.S. Training
and Employment Service of the Manpower Administration. State employ-
ment services were to relate to the federal government through the
regional manpower administrators and thence to the Manpower Administra-
tion. Considerable changing of funding and philosophy was required.
The transition was made more difficult, though not impossible, by
the fact that state offices operated under both state and federal laws.
Although federal financing tends to give federal authorities some
power over state activities, the fact that the system must operate
under state government systems and state legislatures often makes it
more difficult for federal officials to implement their ideas. The
conflict is not only between state and federal officials, however,
for in the past several years sharp disagreements have occurred at
the federal level between "old line" employment service personnel
dedicated to the idea that the service should serve simply as a labor
exchange and those pressing the community manpower service concept.
The involvement of employment service activities within the line
authority of the Manpower Administration of the Labor Department was
onerous to some, but it enhanced the role of state employment service
agencies as manpower service agencies.
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Two developments enhancing the role of employment services as
labor exchanges have been Job Banks and the job matching systems.
A few systems were encouraged for experimental and possible replica-
tion purposes, to develop full job matching, through a completely
computerized system. In at least one of these systems, all job
openings communicated by employers, along with job requirements,
are placed into the computer. A job client can then go into any
local office, make application, and have it entered into the computer.
All offices are interconnected with the system. Within a few moments
(if available) several existing job openings meeting the client's
qualifications are printed out and given to the job seeker, On the
other hand the employer, by entering a job order request into the
computer, can get a printout of eligible job applicants. The mech-
anization of job matching releases personnel for more effective job
counseling and outreach activity. Once this system gets in place
throughout the United States, it is conceivable that a job applicant
in California will have ready access to job information in New York.
In the meantime, most other states have established Job Banks
in which job openings communicated to the employment service are placed
into the computer with a periodic computer printout, usually once a
week. These computer printouts are then available to the various
offices for their use with job applicants. This system is usually
looked upon as a first step toward complete job matching. However,
there are those who criticize the partial, piecemeal implementation
as a waste of resources.
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While on the state level, the employment service for several
years served as the primary agent for planning the Labor Department's
manpower programs, this function was changed with the development
of the state and local manpower planning councils that under CETA
serve as the manpower planning arm of the governor and local elected
public officials. However, the employment service will probably still
play a powerful role in manpower planning. In local areas it will
probably continue as a prime deliverer of programs for human resource
development because of its pervasive presence through widely dispersed
community-based employment offices.
NATIONAL MANPOWER PROGRAMS
In addition to the manpower revolution of the 1960s and its
demands for changes in the human resource development system, a third
dimension was added which was to make its mark upon the other elements -
the educational establishment and the employment service. Until the
1960s those two elements constituted the whole. But in the minds of
some, they were not responsive enough to the needs of this new era
of rapid change which had left behind 15 to 20 percent of the popula-
tion — the poor of the nation. As already indicated, the result was
the creation of national manpower programs with the purpose of optim-
izing the manpower contributions of the nation's population. Because
of past neglect, special attention was focused on those sectors of
the population experiencing the greatest difficulty in becoming an
effective part of the labor force.
Manpower Development and Training
The development of human resources requires a linking of the
employment service with the educational establishment. A key mechanism
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for accomplishing this was the enactment and administration of the
Manpower Development and Training Act in 1962. Conceived as a tem-
porary program to train persons unemployed as a result of a tech-
nological change, extended to the youth and later adapted as a part
of the "war on poverty," it showed its staying power and flexibility
by assuming a leadership role in human resource development. While
it was responsible for vocational-type training for the adult popula-
tion in general, its major •— though not full — emphasis was on the
disadvantaged portions of the population.
Under MDTA, administrative responsibility was shared by the
Secretaries of HEW and of Labor acting through the state employment
services, and it established the need for training by identifying
people eligible for and requiring training and the occupations in
which there was "reasonable expectation of employment." Within HEW,
the division of manpower development and training of the U.S. Office
of Education was responsible for administering manpower institutional
training programs at the state level, representatives of the state
employment service and the division of vocational and technical educa-
tion making possible a variety of major innovations in human resource
development; for example:
1. Innovative techniques and material for those lacking ade-
quate communicative and computative skills.
2. Use of adult basic education to upgrade the general educa-
tional level of trainees.
3- Bilingual basic education and skills training for those
who must learn English as a second language.
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4. On-site testing to determine educational areas which need
strengthening, as well as to determine occupational abilities
and interests.
5- On-site counseling to assist students to meet successfully
their new challenges, and especially to help in making
occupational choices.
6. Open admissions, admitting all persons referred by agencies,
regardless of educational background.
7. Open-entry/open-exit institutional training using modular
units, admitting students at any point in the course and
allowing them to exit at any time.
8. Development of occupational clusters, permitting greater
flexibility on the part of the trainees in the selection
of an occupation.
9. Association of skills centers with colleges, encouraging
disadvantaged students to enroll in allowable courses with
regular college students. The acquisition of a GED became
possible, and such students were encouraged to continue
for a college degree.
As already pointed out, perhaps one of the most important contri-
butions to the range of institutions was the skills center and its
emphasis of institutional training for disadvantaged persons. The
institutional changes it wrought will probably continue to be a
resource of considerable value to the manpower planner.
In addition to the institutional programs and courses located
at various educational institutions and at independent skills centers,
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on-the-job training programs were established with employers in which
employers are reimbursed for training costs through the state employ-
ment service. During slack labor market periods, employer response
was less than enthusiastic. However, during tight labor markets,
employer enthusiasm increased considerably. In addition to institu-
tional and on-the-job training projects there was an individual refer-
ral program. Where institutional training was needed but there was
insufficient demand to warrant the establishment of special classes
at an institution, individuals could be referred for training to
existing programs. While MDTA ended in 197^, many of the lessons
learned in its twelve years are available to state and local prime
sponsors as they develop locally responsive manpower plans under CETA.
Vocational Rehabilitation
An additional resource which is of some importance to the man-
power planner is the state-federal program of vocational rehabilitation,
not only in its preparation of people for employment but also in the
example of success it provides in human rehabilitation. This program
is an employment-oriented activity whose goal is employability. Al-
though it offers both skills development and job creation, its special
significance is the process by which access to employability services
and employment is achieved.
While not directed at the disadvantaged, the vocational rehab-
ilitation program each year places in competitive employment between
three hundred thousand and four hundred thousand persons. By reason
of physical and mental disability many of these may also be economi-
cally disadvantaged. It is one of a small number of very effective
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programs. The high success rate is built in because the process
begins with careful evaluation of the potential employability of
the client. When employability is determined, the state rehabilita-
tion agency has, within a single program, the authority to fund nearly
any activity related to employment for any eligible client. Essen-
tially any service that contributes to achieving the individual's
employment objective is acceptable, including: (1) comprehensive
evaluation, both psychological and medical, (2) medical, surgical,
and hospital care and related therapy to remove or reduce disabilities,
(3) prosthetic devices, (4) counseling and guidance for vocational
adjustments, (5) training, (6) service in comprehensive or specialized
rehabilitation facilities, (7) maintenance and transportation, (8) tools,
equipment, and licenses needed for work or in establishing a small
business, and (9) placement and follow-up. Eligibility, too, is broad,
having expanded from the physically to the mentally handicapped, and
more recently to those with other substantial handicaps to employment.
However, clients must have reasonable expectations of employability,
and therefore only the ones capable are selected for rehabiliation —
what is often referred to as "skimming."
The key element of the program is a personal relationship be-
tween a client and a trained counselor, authorized to purchase what-
ever medical, educational, or other services are needed to successfully
place the client in satisfactory employment. After evaluation to
ascertain potential employability and to determine handicaps and
strengths, the counselor and client jointly work out an employment
plan, merging the client's interests and realistic possibilities for
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employment. The program is usually locally administered by a state
social services or educational department, or as a separate entity.
A few states have created departments of human resources which en-
compass the rehabilitation function.
It is of considerable importance for the manpower planner to
establish close ties with the state vocational rehabilitation agency
and its local offices. Interest in training and placing vocationally
handicapped people may well serve many of the manpower needs of public
agencies.
Public Employment Programs
Long advocated by manpower experts, an important and growing
part of national manpower programming is programs offering jobs with
local and state governments, either temporary or permanent, to the
unemployed and disadvantaged, to be financed by federal funds.
Public Service Careers was aimed at opening entry-level public
jobs to the disadvantaged by revising the nature of tasks performed
to eliminate unnecessary barriers to employment. In addition, efforts
were made to eliminate arbitrary merit or civil service requirements
which effectively barred the disadvantaged from public service. Funds
were provided for training of program enrollees and some supportive
services. While this program is now dead, its basic concept can be
incorporated into CETA manpower plans.
The Emergency Employment Act of 1971, with its Public Employ-
ment Program, provided an addition to the arsenal of manpower resources
Public service employment funds were allocated to cities, counties,
and states to pay up to 90 percent of the wages and benefits for new
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public service jobs in areas of crucial public concern. Persons
hired with these funds were to be the unemployed or underemployed.
Special preference was given to unemployed Vietnam veterans, graduates
of manpower programs, and high-technology and professional manpower.
Unfortunately, minimal funds were provided for training purposes
under this Act. However, they could be linked with other programs
providing training. The program required that individuals be moved
eventually to permanent-type jobs in either the public or private
sector. So long as there is substantial unemployment, public employ-
ment will probably continue, but it is now administered through the
local and state prime sponsors operating under CETA.
The Work Incentive Program
The Work Incentive program was authorized by a 1968 amendment
to the Social Security Act, its framers aiming at the movement of
welfare recipients into productive employment -— from "welfare" to
"workfare." After several years of experimentation, aimed primarily
at families in the Aid to Families with Dependent Children (APDC)
program, in July of 1972, most adults receiving payments under this
program were required to register for WIN and, where such was available,
either accept appropriate employment or training. Those exempted
from enrollment were the sick, the incapacitated, elderly people caring
for sick or incapacitated persons, and mothers or other relatives
with the responsibility of caring for children under six year of age.
However, such persons can voluntarily register in WIN.
The emphasis of the program is placement on jobs, with employ-
ment service personnel charged with the responsibility of developing
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4-35
either public or private jobs, as well as training opportunities for
WIN clients. When appropriated funds are available, WIN clients are
given occupational training in schools as well as apprenticeship,
and formalized on-the-job training. The minimal or lack of educa-
tion and the unmotivated background of many of these people make
many employers shy away from them. However, superior programs with
good training throughout the country have shown that it is possible
to motivate and train economically disadvantaged people for many
entry-level jobs. Once they become a real part of the labor force,
they can become effective employees. One of the advantages of using
them is that their expected beginning earnings are relatively low.
If effective use can be made of them, costs may therefore be compara-
tively low. However, as with most everyone, their "stayability" will
depend to a great extent on the development of an appropriate human
development program within the agency with the opportunity for growth
and improvement. The WIN program has not yet been integrated into
the CETA efforts, although there is a rationale for doing so, and
it is frequently coordinated through the involvement of employment
service officials in CETA efforts.
VOCATIONAL COUNSELING
While not a human resource development institution in the same
sense as educational, employment services, and manpower programs,
vocational counseling is nevertheless an important feature of those
institutions, and it is itself an institution in the sense that it is
an established pattern of human activity intended to improve the
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4-36
quality of vocational choices. Of the approximately sixty thousand
full-time counselors, two-thirds are located in the elementary,
secondary, and two-year schools throughout the country. State employ-
ment services and rehabilitation agencies employ about 20 percent,
and the remainder are found in miscellaneous human service agencies
and with private employers.
While the overwhelming majority of counseling is performed in
the public schools, only half of the nation's high schools have any
formal vocational counseling. In the past, this counseling has been
directed toward preparing high school students to enter the univer-
sity. This bias comes primarily from the fact that professionally
recognized counselors are products of the universities. Vocational
education is usually outside their range of experience and is there-
fore generally neglected. While some 80 percent of the high school
graduates do not complete college, high school counselors spend two-
thirds of their time on college-directed counseling.
With the rise of manpower programs, especially the Neighborhood
Youth Corps, and the increasing respectability of vocational and
technical education coming with the 1960s, the picture has begun to
change. The change has also been accelerated by the decreased rate
of growth of the universities in the 1970s, accompanied by the con-
tinued rapid growth of the two-year, post-secondary schools' empha-
sizing vocational education and training. The change has been further
accentuated by the professional mingling of traditionally oriented
school counselors with the counselors attached to the employment
service's rehabilitation agencies, and by manpower training programs.
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4-37
The approach of the latter is probably weighted toward vocational
guidance because of the shorter time required to acquire a vocation
than a profession.
One of the greatest problems facing vocational counseling is
the fact that so little is known about the process of vocational
choice. It is known that it is generally not a question of making
a decision, but how to affect those decisions is less than clear.
Nevertheless, the availability of wise, effective counselors at
crucial points of decision making can probably be of some assistance.
Probably the greatest assistance can be in helping the one making
the choice become aware of the vocational opportunities, the demands
or requirements of those vocations, and — equally important — the
strengths and weaknesses of the individuals.
As career ladders are developed, some form of guidance is needed
to assist individuals in making wise choices as to the careers they
will choose, how far up the chosen ladder they will attempt to climb,
and how best to achieve their career goals. Therefore, micromanpower
planners may well wish to "plan" the inclusion of some vocational
counseling expertise within the manpower development program with
which they are concerned.
A MODEL FOR COOPERATIVE HUMAN
RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
An important function of the manpower planner is that of providing
a bridge between the area he represents and other professional fields.
When employed by a state agency or in a particular industry, be it
health care, transportation, or improving environmental quality, the
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micromanpower planner has a dual responsibility. On the one hand
he must understand the technical operations and needs of his own
agency or industry in order to adequately interpret it to other
agencies and professions. He must also become familiar with the
human resource agencies his organization might use in meeting its
manpower requirements. The more expert manpower planners can be in
assessing their industries' manpower needs, the greater will be the
opportunity for precision and confidence in their translation of
these needs into terms and concepts useful to educational administra-
tors, curriculum developers, and training institutions. As a bridge
builder, manpower planners can provide an administrative paradigm
for human resource development through cooperative planning.
This team approach can also be fostered by regional federal
officials at the state and local levels by setting up situations which
bring appropriate state and local representatives together to jointly
plan development of the needed human resources. The state agency
representatives would include the state supervisor for manpower
programs in the state employment office, the manpower specialist for
vocational education in the state office of education, and the agency
or industry person most concerned with proper staffing and similar
areas of manpower need. It will also be to the advantage of the
micromanpower planner to be involved in the manpower planning and
coordinating activities of the state and local manpower planning
councils. The simple model illustrated in Figure >4.1 shows the rela-
tionship of those agencies that should be involved in micromanpower
planning.
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4-39
The chief advantage to be derived from this "team approach"
to planning can be seen in the potential for each agency to profit
from the experience and information pool of the other agencies.
The Labor Department and the state employment services possess con-
siderable expertise in measuring demand in the labor market and
making job and salary evaluation, while the vocational education staff
is familiar with the resources and capability of regional, state,
and local training institutions. The micromanpower planner repre-
senting a government agency or industry is in an ideal position to
facilitate communication and program planning between his or her own
agency or industry and the federal and state units most concerned
with employment and training, and the manpower planning councils can
help relate micromanpower planning to the overall planning and ac-
tivities of the state and local areas.
State supervisor for
manpower programs,
state employment
service
Micromanpower planner
Effective manpower
planning and
human resource
development
State or local
manpower planning
council, staff,
or prime sponsor
Manpower specialists,
state department of
vocational education
FIGURE 4.1. Model of Cooperative Human Resource Development
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4-40
In 1974 and '75 CETA legislation was implemented — although
imperfectly — at the state and local levels. It was patterned after
successful programs already in use in California, Utah, and New York,
where team efforts through manpower planning councils had been
implemented. State and local manpower planning councils brought
together representatives of the employment service, vocational re-
habilitation, general and vocational educators, elected public officials,
and representatives of labor, agriculture, the disadvantaged, and
others, establishing in many areas effective manpower planning, es-
sentially establishing the beginnings of a decentralized human resource
development institution.
SELECTED REFERENCES
Becker, Gary. Human Capital. New York: National Bureau of Economic
Research,"1964.
Belitsky, A. Harvey. Private Vocational Schools and Their Students.
Cambridge: Schenkman,1969.
Berg, Ivar. Education and Jobs: The Great Training Robbery. New
York: Praeger, 1970.
Blau, Peter M., and Dudley Duncan Otis. The American Occupational
Structure. New York: John Wiley, 1967.
Cassell, Prank H. The Public Employment Service: Organization in
Change. Ann Arbor, Michigan:Academic Publications,1968"
Evans, Rupert N. "School for Schoolings Sake," in The Transition
from School to Work, a report based on the Princeton Manpower
Symposium, May 9-10, 1968. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton
University Press, 1963.
Parber, David J. "Apprenticeship In the United States: Labor Market
Forces and Social Policy," Journal of Human Resources, Winter
1967.
Folger, John, Helen Astin, and Alan Bayer. Human Resources and Higher
Education. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1970.
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4-41
Ginzberg, Eli, Manpower for Development, New York: Praeger, 1971-
Harbison, Frederick, and Charles A. Myers. Education, Manpower, and
Economic Growth. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969.
Hoyt , Kenneth B., et . al. Career Education: What It Is and How to
Do It. Salt Lake CitjT: Olympus, 1974.
Levitan, Sar, et . al . Human Resources and Labor Markets, New York:
Harper $ Row, 1972.
Mangum, Garth L., ed. The Manpower Revolution. New York: Doubleday,
1965.
Myers, Charles A. The Role of the Private Sector in Manpower Develop-
ment . Baltimore: Johns Hopkins, 1971.
Patten, Thomas H. Manpower and the Development of Human Resources.
New York: John Wiley, 1971.
Report of the Panel of Consultants on Vocational Education, Education
for a Changing World of Work. Washington, D.C.: U.S.
Government Printing Office, 1963-
Rhine, Shirley H., and Daniel Creamer. The Technical Manpower Shortage
How Acute? New York: National Industrial Conference Board,
Somers, Gerald G., and J. Kenneth Little, eds . Vocational Education:
Today and Tomorrow. Madison, Wisconsin: Center for Studies
in Vocational and Technical Education, University of Wisconsin,
1971.
Thurow, Lester. Investment in Human Capital. Belmont , California:
Wadsworth, 1970.
U.S. Department of Labor. Apprenticeship . (Booklet, no date). 24 pp.
Venn, Grant. Man, Education and Manpower. American Association of
School Administrators. Washington, D.C. 1970.
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5.
MANPOWER TRAINING IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR
The micromanpower planner in the public sector is hired to
plan to meet the manpower needs of the agency hiring him or her.
Once the manpower needs are determined, plans must be laid for meet-
ing these needs. It is often possible to meet these needs through
the hiring process, but this is not always possible. Another
approach is to establish a training effort within the agency or by
the industry. While the manpower planner as such need not be
involved in the details of the training activities, he or she should
know enough to work with the training officer in the development and
evaluation of a training plan and program.
THE HISTORY OF PUBLIC SECTOR TRAINING EFFORTS
Until 1958 the training efforts of federal as well as state
and local governments were minimal, with the exception of the
Department of Defense and the State Department.
The Federal Level
The dearth of training efforts resulted at the federal level
from the neglect of Congress to specifically provide for training,
either in house or out of house. The General Accounting Office
(GAO) looked negatively on any out-of-house training financed by
federal dollars, disallowing any expenditure for salaries or tuitions
for training outside the federal establishment. Even in-house train-
ing was looked at with a jaundiced eye by GAO which ruled that only
a "reasonable" amount of training tied directly to the current
duties of employees could be administered by federal departments
5-1
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5-2
and agencies. The safest course, and the most often selected, for
federal officials was to neglect training.
In 1958, probably stimulated by the success of the second
Russian Sputnik, Congress passed the Government Employees Training
Act which actually required federal agencies to provide both In-house
and out-of-house training, specifically allowing for salary, tuition,
subsistence, and travel in connection with training in private as
well as government institutions. The civil service was charged with
the responsibility of implementing the law and succeeded In the
establishment of its own training programs, as well as interagency
agreements allowing federal employees to participate In the growing
number of training programs in other federal agencies.
Under a Presidential Executive Order of 196? the Civil Service
Commission established the Bureau of Training and Regional Training
Centers and the following year the Federal Executive Institute,
providing in-residence training for high-level government executives.
Similar centers were also established for middle management.
A boost to federal training programs has been given with the
increased pressure to eliminate de facto discrimination against
cultural or ethnic minorities by providing lower level employees
with the training necessary for upward movement. While the train-
ing is for all federal employees, a disproportionately large pro-
portion of ethnic minority government workers had been trapped at
the lowest levels of government service because of the lack of
adequate preparation. At the federal level, at least, training has
become an integral function of almost all federal agencies.
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5-3
The State and Local Levels
In 1971, under a provision of the Intergovernmental Personnel
Act of the previous year, federal training programs were opened to
state and local employees. The Act authorized grants to state and
local governments for the establishment of their own programs.
The provision of government service fellowship grants to local and
state government executives gives them opportunities for graduate
study they might not otherwise have had. The program providing for
intergovernmental exchange of employees also provides training
opportunities not previously available. The Labor Department's
Public Service Careers programs provided state and local govern-
ments with federal assistance in the development of career ladders
for their employees, giving them the opportunity for sufficient
training to provide them with the possibility of upward movement.
The Public Employment Program of 1971 provided a minimum of train-
ing money for the state and local employees whose employment was
subsidized by federal funds. The opportunity to hold a job that
was provided for the unemployed and underemployed when given to
people who had little work experience was itself a type of training.
With federal assistance, and probably some of their own momentum,
state and local governments are increasingly realizing the impor-
tance of training in their operations.
A TRAINING RESPONSE
As already shown a number of times, the micromanpower planner
in the public sector has the responsibility for developing organi-
zational plans which will assure the organizations of the right
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kind of manpower, at the right time, and in the needed numbers. Once
the manpower needs have been determined, a response must be developed
for meeting these manpower needs. There are at least three types of
responses possible. These are discussed in the following paragraphs.
The Passive Response
Reliance could be placed on the supply and demand forces of
the labor market. The chief drawback to sole reliance on the market
is that its response is sometimes slow — perhaps too slow to avoid
serious problems of shortages of needed manpower.
The Closed System Response
Not trusting the vagaries of the marketplace, the manpower
planner could establish a system for introducing the low-level raw
manpower produced by the socio-politico-economic system and then
developing, completely in house, the kinds of manpower needed,
establishing a completely closed system of training. This could
be extremely expensive and could result in considerable effort that
is duplicative of the public education sector. Another problem is
that closed systems are no longer possible. While it is perhaps
possible to control the intake of manpower, in a free democratic
society it is not possible to control the outflow, and leakages of
manpower could end in floods.
The Activist Response
The activist manpower planner will: (1) identify the manpower
needs over a planning horizon, (2) project the capacity of the public
economic education system to meet those needs, identifying areas of
shortage, (3) intervene in the system, seeking to influence it in
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5-5
the needed direction, (4) use the public system to the maximum extent
possible, and (5) plan for the establishment of an in-house training
effort to meet the remaining needs.
It is with the establishment of an activist role that this
chapter will primarily deal. It will be assumed that the types and
numbers of manpower needed have been determined within a planning
horizon. It will also be assumed that some human engineering has
been done, at least enough to identify the types of training needed.
In addition, the present and potential capacity of the public eco-
nomic-education system to meet these needs has been determined, or
at least evaluated, leaving the residual training needs.
The responsiveness of the system to adjustments in the wage
level — both in terms of calling forth needed workers as well as
making its own wage adjustments — must be evaluated. In the short
run an increase in wages or perquisites may induce workers to leave
other employers. In the longer run, if there is a shortage of
workers, other employers may respond by increasing their wages and
so on, leaving the agency no better off. If there is an overall
shortage, in the longest run, the general increase in wages for a
given occupation may produce an increase in the number of workers
of a particular occupational group. However, in the meantime the
employers are saddled with what could be exorbitantly high wages.
While the pre-1930 economy may have experienced a downward adjust- .
ment in wages in response to an oversupply, that response is no
longer likely.
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5-6
A training response can alleviate some of these pressures. If
the shortage is local and minimal, an employer can develop his own
training program. If the shortage is more general and extensive,
any in-house training program can be soon bled of its product, its
trained manpower being "pirated" away. In these cases, a more gen-
eralized or cooperative type of training effort is needed on the
part of the industry or at least a substantial portion of the
employers of that particular kind of manpower.
The manpower planner, in outlining the alternative responses
to perceived manpower problems to decisions makers, must also assist
in evaluating or giving priority to those alternatives. What should
be the basis of such evaluation? The historical approach of the
training officer has been that training is "good," therefore train-
ing is the appropriate response to all manpower problems. The
economist or economically oriented decision maker would advocate
that after identifying all alternatives to the solution, the most
"economical" solution should be selected. Here the training
specialist and the economics-oriented manpower planner must work
hand in hand — the training specialist to identify the types of
approaches to learning possible, the manpower planner to help deter-
mine the economic, political, and social viability.
The Effect of Organizational Objectives on Training
One of the most popular approaches to the science-art of
management is "management by objectives," whether it be in the pri-
vate or the public sector. Where this approach to management is
used, each of the functional areas must subscribe to that same
philosophy, including training.
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5-7
Assuming "management by objectives," Figure 5-1 illustrates
the effect of organizational objectives on the training of an orga-
nization. The objectives of the organization will determine the
objectives of the major functions — production, finance, public
relations, and distribution — as well as have some direct effect
on the training objectives which may or may not be considered a
major function. The training objectives in turn are influenced by
the objectives of each of the other major functional areas. How-
ever, training is only one of several types of manpower response
to meet the objectives of the major functional areas. Among the
other responses are two closely related to training — labor rela-
tions and personnel administration. These two manpower responses,
with their concomitant objectives, help determine the training
objectives of the system, as well as directly influence the achieve-
ment of organizational objectives. These three — labor relations,
personnel, and training — help to determine the training methodol-
ogy, if it selects educationally viable methods, will also affect
behavior. And behavioral change in turn affects the accomplish-
ment of organizational objectives.
Steps in Training by Objectives
A philosophy of "training by objectives" would entail the
following steps:
1. Identification of the training objectives. Before any
training plan is put into practice, what it hopes to
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Organizational
objectives
I
Labor relations
objectives
NX
Training
objectives
Personnel
administration
objectives
V
\/
Training
methodology
Behavioral
change
VJl
I
CO
\/
\ \
FIGURE 5.1. Management by Objectives Model
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5-9
accomplish (its objectives) must be determined. Generally
these objectives should be stated in terms of measurable
behavior, not philosophy or attitude, because these are
not measurable. Attitudes are meaningless unless accom-
panied by performance or behavior.
2. Once the training objectives have been determined they
must be made measurable. That is, to test performance the
end product must be measurable; otherwise there can be no
effective test of accomplishment.
3. The present position relative to the accomplishment of
those objectives must be determined in the same objective,
measurable terms as the objectives themselves.
4.. A training plan, directed toward moving manpower from the
present performance level to the desired or planned level,
must be developed.
5. As the plan is put into effect, it must be systematically
monitored to see that it is moving manpower toward the
objective. The result of the monitoring must be con-
stantly fed back into the training program so that nec-
essary adjustments can be made.
6. It is possible that a serious mistake was made in formula-
ting the training response, though this should rarely
happen. If it does, the dropping of the plan should be
considered. This should only be done as a last resort,
alteration or radical surgery being the preferable course
because of the morale effect of discontinuity.
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5-10
7. Once a training program has run its course, an evaluation
should take place in which the progress toward the achieve-
ment of objectives is measured. If it is a total failure,
a completely new approach may be in order. The best of
analytical and evaluative skills is essential in this
step.
The Viability of Training Responses
If training is to be conducted by the establishment of objec-
tives, training decisions must be viable. Figure 5.2 illustrates
the considerations for training decisions. There are four major
possible considerations of the training officer in determining train-
ing viability: economic, educational, political, and social. The
top level administrative officer will make the determination of
the relative importance of these considerations, but all will
determine the viability or probable effect of training decisions
to some degree.
The economic consideration takes effect through two filtering
or testing mechanisms or principles, whether formal or informal.
The first is cost-benefit analysis which asks, "Will the training
program pay for itself?" If it does, it is economically viable,
although it may be rejected because of other considerations. If it
is not economically viable but because of other considerations is
still needed, the training decisions would be filtered through
cost-effective analysis, with the selection of the most cost-
effective alternative or alternatives.
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5-11
The most, if not only, effective testing device for educa-
tional viability is, "Will it change behavior as desired?" If it
will not change behavior, it is not educationally viable according
to our definition.
Political viability is tested by whether the training deci-
sion maker can retain his or her power in the making of a training
decision. (This assumes that retention of power is important.) If
it results in the individual's separation, in most cases it is not
politically viable, though the training officer may receive some
satisfaction in knowing that he or she was "right." Of course, if
the training officer had intended to leave the organization, then
retention of power would not be an effective test of political
considerations except in a negative way.
Economic
considerations
Educational
considerations
Political
considerations
Viable
training
decisions
Social
considerations
FIGURE 5.2. Role of Considerations in Training Decisions
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5-12
Finally, social viability is tested by whether social ideals
are met. In a democratic society, these would be democratic ideals;
in an egalitarian society, they would be egalitarian; in an oligar-
chy, they would be oligarchic, and so forth.
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Cost-benefit analysis asks the question, "Will the program
pay for itself?" That is, will the benefits equal or outweigh the
costs. The approach of the economist would be that unless the pro-
gram pays for itself, it is not economically viable. The use of
such analysis requires that the manpower planner be most careful
in identifying all major benefits and costs ascribable to a given
program. Otherwise it becomes simply a tool of preconceived ratio-
nalization. Conceptually the inclusion of major benefits and costs
may sound easy, but in practice it becomes difficult. In the
following outline, some of the major costs and benefits associated
with training are listed. Individual manpower planners may add to
or subtract from the list as their particular training programs are
considered.
Costs Benefits
To employers:
Instructors Cost reduction
Facilities Service improvements
Hardware — equipment Time reduction
Software — books, supplies Production improvement
Tuition Morale improvement
Administration Improved safety
Transportation Reduced turnover
Lost time of trainees
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5-13
Costs Benefits
To trainees:
Foregone leisure Personal satisfaction
Psychic Improved mobility
Out of pocket Improved income
Improved mental health
Improved safety
To society:
Tax reductions Improved physical and
Lost production of trainees mental health
Improved production of
trainees
Increased taxes
While all costs and benefits should be considered, the employer
is of course primarily interested in the costs of and benefits to
the organization. This analytical technique assumes the evaluation
of costs and benefits in a common unit of measurement, usually
dollars, which greatly simplifies the calculus and makes the strik-
ing of a balance easier. After such an evaluation, the dollar eval-
uation of costs and benefits is added up and a balance struck. If
the benefits equal or exceed the costs, the activity is economically
viable, paying for itself. Should costs override benefits, the
activity is not economically viable.
An economically unviable activity may, because of its political
or social implication, have political or social viability, and as a
matter of practicality the noneconomic benefits may be of overriding
importance. It is important, however, that the manpower planner
be constantly prepared to forcefully point out the economic viability
(or lack of it) of training programs to decision makers.
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5-14
So long as a training program is economically viable, there
is no economic reason it should not be used. It costs nothing, and
if the benefits exceed the costs, it contributes something extra to
the operation. It is important, however, in assigning costs and
benefits of alternative training programs, that double counting be
eliminated. Each program would need to be assigned its proportion-
ate share of joint costs and benefits.
It should be clear from the foregoing that the quantitative
determination of all costs and benefits is a difficult task. Unless
great care is taken, some costs or benefits may be left out or
double-counted. Unless the manpower planner is prepared to exercise
the necessary precaution, it might be best to avoid the use of cost-
benefit analysis, relying on the cost effectiveness approach.
Cost Effectiveness
If there are a number of educational programs that meet the
criteria of paying for themselves, or if there are a number of edu-
cationally viable programs which do not meet this criteria but
because of other considerations must be considered for implementa-
tion, the manpower planner must then determine which program or
programs to use. An analytical tool for assisting in making this
selection is the determination of the cost effectiveness of the
alternative methods.
The use of this tool would be the determination of the benefits
received per unit of cost. If a given program can produce the same
educational results as another, it makes sense to select the
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program that costs the least. While this test is not always easy
to apply, it does make sense for even the nonprofit organization
to get the "biggest bang" possible per dollar of expenditure. The
approach of the economist would be to select or at least to recom-
mend the selection of that approach. There may still be a net
economic cost, but it will be minimized.
Levels of Training Needs
The training program function must recognize at least five
levels of training, each with its own peculiar needs and appropriate
training methods:
1. Orientation — One of the most trying periods in the
worklife of a human being consists of the first few
days or weeks of employment with a particular employer.
The most common approach to orientation is the "sink or
swim" approach in which workers are allowed to flounder
in an uncertain sea. More and more, management realizes
that there are always costs involved in the first few
weeks of employment and that these costs can be minimized
through an orientation program which identifies the
structure, the basic rules, the objectives and functions,
and so on of the organization. Good orientation will
increase the likelihood of a new employee's remaining
with an employer, reducing other employment costs.
Today's worker wants to know what is going on and how he
or she relates to the whole. Orientation helps achieve
this and is something every employee needs. Films, visits,
and self-instruction can be truly effective if done well.
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5-16
2. Entry-level training; — Every organization has basic func-
tions or operations that constitute its fundamental activ-
ities, whether it be running a piece of machinery, working
with the public, engaging in certain clerical activities,
laboratory work, and so forth. Regardless of the level
of development an employee brings to a job, the basic
operations must be learned as they apply to a particular
employer. Once the new employee has been oriented, train-
ing in the basic functions is necessary. The methodology
used will be determined by the nature of these basic func-
tions. Highly routinized operations can often be reduced
to programmed self-instruction. Some standard operations
such as secretarial work and accounting lend themselves
to this type of entry-level training. There are canned
programs available where general methods and principles
are involved. Or if there are sufficient numbers of
apprentices and the work in an organization is unique,
consulting firms can be employed to assist in the develop-
ment of tailormade self-instruction programs. Some of
these programs use sophisticated hardware, including
computers, but they may also be relatively simple "pencil
and paper" kinds of training programs. Hands-on experience
is of course essential. But the quality of the "trainer"
and training materials will play the key role in the
quality of the training.
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5-17
3. Upgrade and update training — Once an employee has mas-
tered the basics of an operation through entry-level types
of training programs, a mastery of the operations is in
order. Every facet of the operations must be mastered to
the point of minimizing the need for supervision, to the
point that the worker can be relied upon to function
effectively without detailed monitoring. However, check-
points must be established to assure that there has been
such mastery, if organizational objectives are to be met.
There must be continuous feedback with the goal of self-
improvement. In addition, as technology changes estab-
lished employees must be updated through a training effort.
4. Supervision — No organization can operate without super-
visors — first-line management. Each organization creates
its own philosophy for the development of supervisors.
Some rise from the ranks, others are introduced from out-
side the operating ranks. Irrespective of their source,
the function of supervision differs from operation, and
the training must be different. Supervisors must have a
general understanding of every operation supervised, with
sufficient depth that the workers know that the super-
visor knows what he or she is talking about. And yet the
supervisor must not get so mired down in the details of
operation that he or she fails to see the entire picture.
The art of communication is essential — listening, speak-
ing, reading, writing, computing, and a host of other
-------
5-18
forms. Special training programs may be needed for partic-
ular supervisors who are deficient in one or another aspect.
The supervisor must also see the relationship of the de-
partment to the overall organizational goals. No super-
visor can function adequately in the dark as to these goals.
The supervisor must also develop certain human relations
expertise — must learn how to work with people. The in-
troduction or possible introduction of a labor union will
have a material effect on training needs, for it is the
first-line supervisor who will have the day-to-day contact
with union shop stewards and grievance committees.
5- Middle and top management — While supervisors are managers,
theirs is a much different type of activity, with differing
training needs from middle and top management. It is with
middle and top management that the future direction of an
organization Is determined. This level of management must
deal with many individuals outside the organization itself:
government officials, union leaders, legislators, news-
media, public pressure groups, and the like. Missteps
at this level can be irreparable and their consequences
costly. The capacity to comprehend what is taking place
in the world surrounding an organization, effectively
relating organizational objectives to those outside forces
and happenings is the sign of effective top management.
Special training programs to develop and enhance the req-
uisite skills to be effective at this level are essential.
-------
5-19
ALTERNATIVE TRAINING METHODOLOGIES
This section presents a brief description of most of the major
alternative training methodologies available. For any given type
of training response not all methods would be educationally viable —
would produce positive behavioral change. It is possible that for
any given type of training only one method is viable, but it is more
likely that two or more methods would be educationally viable. If
this be true, then other considerations — economic, political, and
social — would come into play. Each training method then must be
examined in view of all considerations as they apply to a particular
training objective. Every training ob-jective will have its own
method or alternative methods as well as hardware and software.
Figure 5-3 summarizes many of the training methods and hard-
ware available, arranging them from the most abstract at the apex
of the pyramid to the most concrete at the base.
Training Sources
In addition to the training institutions discussed in the
previous chapter, the following sources of training may be considered,
1. Apprenticeship — This kind of training can be formal or
informal. Many craft unions in collaboration with manage-
ment maintain formal apprenticeship programs in which the
knowledge, skills, and experience of a journeyman are
passed on to a qualified apprentice on the job. To obtain -
the best training, trainer-journeymen must feel secure in
their position and be rewarded for their efforts.
-------
5-20
Abstract
A
Visual
symbols
Audio or
visual aids
Audio-visual aids
Exhibits
Field trips
Demonstrations
Contrived experiences
or simulation
Direct, purposeful experience
Examples of Methods
Lectures, conferences, reading
textbooks, manuals, programmed
instruction discussion,
question-answer
Charts, graphs, diagrams,
flannel boards, flip charts
Tapes, recordings, photos,
slides, film strips, computer-
assisted instruction
Motion pictures, television
Displays, models, mock-ups
Tours, visits
Laboratory proofs, "how-to"
presentations
Role playing, case studies,
incident process; in-bracket
management games
Supervised training, laboratory
T-groups
SOURCE: Thomas H. Patten, Manpower Planning and the Development of
Human Resources (Wiley Interscience, New York), p. 142.
FIGURE 5.3. The Pyramid of Learning
-------
5-21
2. Vestibule — This consists of training in the use of
actual equipment material and methods, but without the
pressures of production and with competent, experienced
trainers. It is usually removed from the shop. It can
be very expensive, unless substantial numbers of trainees
are involved, thus reducing cost per trainee.
3- On-the-job — This kind of training is one of the oldest
and most used techniques and is composed simply of placing
the trainees on the job. Preferably they will have a
trainer assigned who is technically and attitudinally
qualified to teach. A structured, systemized program
is usually more effective than an unplanned, uncoordinated,
haphazard effort.
4. In-house — These training programs are conducted by the
employer, using instructors from within the organization.
This technique has the advantage of using instructors who
know the organization well. However, it also results in
in-breeding, with little outside stimulus to change. In
some cases this may be a negative feature. It may also
be limited in pedagogical technique unless trainers are
trained to teach.
5. Consultants — Outside consultants may be called in to
supplement in-house training efforts. This provides stim-
ulation, the introduction of new ideas, and new challenges
and yet still leaves the organization in control of the
training.
-------
5-22
6. Out-of-house — This training can call on the most highly
competent instructors because the training effort is not
limited to the organizational personnel. New ideas and
techniques are more likely to be introduced, but unfamil-
iarity of instructors with organization characteristics
may be a handicap.
Training Methods
The following methods may be considered:
1. Lecture — Where the trainees have little knowledge and
the maximum amount of information must be given in a
relatively short time, where a knowledgeable and effective
lecturer is available, and where cost is a consideration,
the lecture method is generally recognized as an effec-
tive and inexpensive teaching method.
2. Question and answer — The use of the question and answer
period in tandem with the lectures provides the lecturer
with some feedback which may be of value. It also helps
to reinforce learning and clear up hazy areas in the
lecture.
3. Lecture-discussion — Where trainees have had written
material to supplement and introduce the subject matter
lectured on, or where the participants are reasonably
knowledgeable, small discussion groups following a lecture
are very effective in reinforcing the subject matter.
Attitudinal change is probably more likely to take place
if small group discussions follow lectures, should that
be an objective.
-------
5-23
4. Conference-discussion — Where trainees are somewhat
knowledgeable but common approaches to problems need to
be worked out, conference-discussions are very effective,
if good conference leaders are used. A conference leader
or facilitator aids in the discussion, keeps it directed
toward a goal, insures sufficient depth in discussion,
and helps to summarize what has taken place. Resource
experts may be used to supply needed information or
expertise.
5. Panel discussion — This technique involves the use of a
group of experts each of whom give brief statements on a
given interrelated subject. These are then open to
challenges and questions from the panel members. Partici-
pants can be pushed to the greatest depths in their knowl-
edge because they are questioned by experts.
6. Panel and floor discussion — A variant of the panel dis-
cussion is to eventually open the panel to questions from
the floor, allowing for interaction between the trainees
and the panel members. Sometimes even experts fail to
see a new approach, a new angle that can be produced by
the layperson. Like discussions in connection with
lectures, the learning process is reinforced and obscure
points may be cleared up.
7- Sensitivity — One of the more controversial teaching
methods is sensitivity training in which groups of trainees,
principally management personnel, are brought together for
-------
5-24
an experience in interpersonal relationships. The major
criticisms are that there is no predetermined direction
and the results are uncertain. It is hoped that partici-
pants will be sensitized to the feelings of others as well
as their own feelings and needs, but this is not an assured
outcome.
8. Programmed self-instruction — For highly standardized
skills and understanding which may be logically analyzed
and systemized, this method is particuarly appropriate.
The goal is to develop a training course which takes the
trainee from an elementary level to "succeedingly higher
levels of understanding and skill in a logical, systematic
way — the individual trainees proceeding at their own
speed, essentially on their own. It involves frequent
self-evaluation, the trainees deciding when they are pre-
pared to move to the next stage. When combined with some
resource persons to answer questions, its effectiveness
Is enhanced.
9. Understudy — This training method involves a "one-on-one"
arrangement in which a given job incumbent is given an
understudy, with the responsibility to train him or her
to take over that job should circumstances demand it.
Only where the incumbent is retiring or being promoted
will this be effective. Workers tend not to want to train
someone to take their place if they might possibly be
hurt.
-------
5-25
10. Role-playing — In role-playing, discussants don't talk
about doing something, they actually do it — reacting
to a given set of circumstances by acting the role of a
given actor — supervisor, grievant, personnel manager --
in a spontaneous way. It may be combined with the case
method.
11. Management games — One of the oldest yet newest training
methods is management games. Military strategists have
used it for centuries. Business managers now use it in
the development of management skills. In it, management
teams are organized for the purpose of developing operat-
ing and policy decisions in a training atmosphere. The
games may be mathematical or nonmathematical. They may
or may not involve the use of the computer or other
sophisticated hardware. If well constructed, management
games can get management personnel involved in a way no
other technique can accomplish.
12. Brainsterming — In this technique, a problem is pres-
ented to the trainee groups asking for possible solutions.
The trainees are expected to offer, without comment from
anyone else, anything that pops Into their consciousness.
Only after the group has offered all possible solutions
are they explored as to their feasibility. The principle
is to get the thinking and articulating flowing as freely
as possible, avoiding comments that might shut some of
them off — then evaluating.
-------
5-26
13- Cooperative — Some schools and workplaces have found it
to their advantage to cooperate with each other in com-
bining academic with production activities, trainees
spending part of their time working and part in related
or at least pertinent academic effort. Trainees can earn
while they learn.
1^. Hands-on training — This involves using the actual equip-
ment which provides the maximum in realism.
15- Mock-up — This training, made especially popular during
World War II, uses a mock-up or simulated model that at-
tempts to duplicate, but in a less expensive way, the
hands-on experience. If realistic, It can be very
effective.
16. Case studies — A special type of conference discussion
is the case study in which a well-prepared, realistic case
is presented to the trainee group — in film or written
form -- eliciting group discussion of the principles and
practices illustrated — but with no assurance of a
definitive solution.
17- Correspondence — A number of correspondence programs are
available to teach some basic skills and knowledge. They
may be traditional — regular college or high school
courses, but taught by correspondence — or they may be
specially developed self-Instructional programs.
18. Reading — Certain types of understandings can most
economically be taught by a reading program which exposes
trainees to a wide range of ideas and philosophies.
-------
5-27
19- Listening — One of the greatest handicaps to good super-
vision and good learning is the inability to "listen con-
structively." The ability to listen can be enhanced
through training.
20. Pisadvantaged — The increased attention to the economi-
cally disadvantaged in the 1960s produced a new method-
ology especially for people who have not had meaningful
job opportunities. HEWs Area Manpower Institutes for the
Development of Staff trains supervisors and teachers to
work with people who are unmotivated, who have extremely
short-range goals, and who lack many basic skills and
acceptable work habits.
21. English as a second language — When a person has not
developed the use of the English language sufficiently,
it becomes difficult to learn when traditional training
methods are used. Techniques for teaching people for
whom English is a second language are being developed.
They include the use of extensive nonverbal symbols and
simplified vocabulary. The goal is to improve their
mastery of the English language, but it is done in a way
eventually to encourage not discourage the trainee. When
done in a work atmosphere, it can be particularly effective.
The above list may be exhausting but it is not exhaustive. It
can be extended ad infinitum through many variations. However, it
is probably exhaustive enough to the manpower planner to illustrate
-------
5-28
the need to rely on a well-qualified training specialist in the
evaluation and selection of methodology and sources, but with the
manpower planner maintaining a hand, at least in asking questions
as to the viability of selection.
-------
6.
PUBLIC PERSONNEL ADMINISTRATION
With the increasing complexity and importance of the public
sector of the American economy, the efficient use of public service
manpower becomes even more important. One of the more serious
complaints about government, whether warranted or not, is the
quality of civil servants. With these criticisms, and with the
increasing importance of the body of public service employees, it
is essential that the highest quality of public workers be obtained,
developed, and retained. However, the need for the highest quality
of civil servants sometimes runs contrary to political reality.
Politicians are dependent upon loyal and dedicated followers to
win elections, and they continue to use political appointees when-
ever possible. All too frequently this "spoils system" has meant
a low rather than a high quality of public service and has given
rise to reform movements. Such reforms have occurred at all levels
of government.
THE FEDERAL SYSTEM
The spoils system at the national level was at its peak be-
tween 1829 and 1883. Until the presidency of Andrew Jackson, the
fledgling administrations, while far from devoid of political
patronage, paid considerable attention to the quality of civil
servants. State and local governments probably paid far less atten-
tion to such questions because of the shortage of qualified people
and the relatively simple, nontechnical nature of most public
service activities. Under Jackson, the federal government shifted
6-1
-------
6-2
to an unabashed dedication to the common man and the democratiza-
tion of public service. Jackson was determined to open public
service to all persons regardless of education and social class.
He maintained that the simple nature of such service permitted almost
anyone to develop the necessary qualifications.
While opinions vary as to his intentions — some maintain that
the development of such a system was for the purpose of obtaining
and maintaining political power, while others maintain that Jackson
really believed in opening public service to the people of all
classes — the result was the establishment in the nation as a
whole of a "spoils system" that had found currency in local and
state government since the turn of the century. While Abraham
Lincoln may have abhorred the spoils system, he nevertheless reached
new heights in its use, finding it politically expedient to do so
to retain the power he needed to accomplish the things he felt
needed to be done.
Under U. S. Grant, the abuse of the spoils system, through
the development of graft and corruption in public office, became so
apparent that the American people became concerned. Civil service
reformers began to cry out for a correction. By 1872 both major
political parties included reform in their party platforms, with
campaign oratory calling for a merit system in the federal employ.
In the final months of the Grant Administration, Congress authorized
and funded the formation of a Civil Service Commission. Grant ap-
pointed the first Commission which developed rules and competitive
examinations for several federal departments. However, in spite of
-------
6-3
campaign promises, Congress failed to fund again the Commission,
and it became defunct for another decade.
In 1883 Congress again passed a civil service bill — the
Pendleton Act — which the President signed into law on January 16,
1883. Modeled somewhat after the British system, the act provided
for: (1) competitive examinations, (2) security in office, removal
for political purposes being expressly forbidden, and (3) prohibi-
tion of the use of public servants for political services, includ-
ing campaigns, the intent being to guarantee political neutrality.
However, the British feature of a system essentially closed to all
but a highly educated class was rejected, allowing entry into the
federal service (at any grade) of people with experience that could
be used as a substitute for education.
While a merit system was permanently introduced into the
federal government in 1883 only 10 percent of the federal payroll
was covered. Presidents still felt the need for patronage to keep
recalcitrant Congressmen in line. Nevertheless, both self-interest
and idealism seemed to be working hand in hand. Among the last
acts of each President was the inclusion of large numbers of addi-
tional positions in the civil service system, protecting the
incumbents from being swept out of office by the other party. The
persons appointed had to qualify under the new administration, but
by noncompetitive examination — which consisted of a review of the
records of service, making retention relatively certain; thus civil
service coverage was gradually extended through each succeeding
administration.
-------
Under Franklin D. Roosevelt, the merit system and a profes-
sionalized civil service became firmly rooted, with some 85 percent
of all federal employees coming under the system by 1943. While
the postal service employees, in the transformation of that service
into an independent agency of the Executive branch of government in
1970, were removed from the civil service system, they have their
own merit system in which political influence is forbidden. The
last significant area of federal patronage, the appointments of post-
masters and rural letter carriers, had been eliminated the year
before by the Executive Order of President Nixon, finally placing
such positions under the merit system.
The federal civil service system is the largest in the country,
with over 5,300 employees situated in Washington, D.C. and ten re-
gional offices as well as about 65 subsidiary board of inquiry
offices throughout the country. Each federal department has its
own personnel department to deal with the U.S. civil service. The
heads of these offices form the interagency advisory group for the
formulation of policy and the maintenance of communication with
each other.
The Commission develops and administers examinations. For
lower level jobs, this consists of mostly short-answer, machine-
graded examinations; for higher level positions, it consists pri-
marily of an examination of past education and experience as well
as oral reviews. Examinations are announced in U.S. Post Offices,
newspapers, college placement centers, and on radio and television
when critical shortages develop. The civil service is actively
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6-5
engaged in recruiting, seeking applicants from all sections of the
country and from all subcultures. In addition to advertisement,
representatives visit more than a thousand educational institutions
each year looking for likely candidates.
Examinations are used to establish a list of eligibles for
entrance-level jobs, the top three being recommended on request from
a federal department, from which selections are made. Positions may
be filled by promotions or reinstatements. New appointments are
career-conditional, and such employees may be dismissed at any time
during the first year. After three years the employee achieves
full career status, gaining rights for promotion, reassignment,
transfer, appeal, and reinstatement as well as protection in the
event of staff reduction.
In addition to the administration of examinations, the system
is responsible for facilitating equal pay for equal work by develop-
ing detailed job specifications, assigning each job to various clas-
sifications, and assigning a range of pay to each classification.
Many of these are applicable across agency lines. The system also
oversees promotions based primarily on examinations, of one form
or another, designed, it is hoped, to make merit the basis for
advancement.
An appeals procedure was established in the 1960s in which
federal employees may appeal adverse personnel decisions on firing,
demotions, staff reductions and furloughs, either first to the
agency or to the Commission. Should the first appeal be made to
the agency, the employee may then appeal to the Commission.
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6-6
In 1958, a progressive step was taken in the federal civil
service with the passage of the Government Employees' Training Act
which gave responsibility to the Civil Service Commission for exec-
utive development, and in response, numerous training programs were
initiated, mostly for professional-type jobs. In 1968, the Civil
Service Commission conducted its first Federal Executive Institute,
designed to become a permanent institution.
In 1968, the Commission established the executive assignment
system which included 25,000 higher level government executives.
The purpose of the system is to mechanize, so far as possible,
through a computer printout the compilation of a referral list of
the most promising candidates for particular positions. Consider-
able man-time is still required to complete the selection of em-
ployees, although it may well be the wave of the future, making
possible the mechanical review of vast numbers of records and reduc-
ing as it does personal bias in the selection process.
While nondiscrimination has in theory been a part of the civil
service system for several decades, de facto discrimination never-
theless existed in many departments. Beginning in the 1960s the
civil service began to shift to positive action programs, effectively
opening federal employment to minority groups previously discrimi-
nated against. Illustrative of the progress is the improving status
of blacks. In 1972, approximately 14 percent of the federal employ-
ment were black, compared with 11 percent for the population as a
whole.
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6-7
In 197^ a significant step toward the development of organi-
zational manpower planning throughout the federal civil service
was taken. In September the Civil Service Commission issued to
all agency and independent establishment (working under Commission
regulations) heads, for their comment, a bulletin setting forth
the tentative policy statement requiring manpower planning for all
such agencies and establishments. Once the return comments of
these heads are received, a permanent policy will be issued. The
details of this tentative policy statement, which will likely be
adopted in great detail, will be presented later in this chapter.
Should the policy statement be implemented, there will be a radical
improvement in manpower planning within the federal establishment.
And such a development will likely filter down at least to state
and local operations using federal funding. When this happens,
industry-specific manpower planning in the public sector will become
a reality.
STATE AND LOCAL PERSONNEL SYSTEMS
The movement toward state and local merit systems actually
began about 1883, the same time as a permanent federal system was
established. It began in New York which had been one of the most
"advanced" states in the use of a spoils system, as well as in the
use of such a system for the purpose of graft. By that year public
pressure became so great that politicians found it to their politi-
cal advantage to establish a personnel system based on merit. Thus
state merit systems had their start though a ponderous one. By 1973,
35 states had comprehensive merit systems, having increased from 23
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6-8
states in 1958. All states, receiving as they do federal grants
of one kind or another, have at least a partial merit system cover-
ing those agencies receiving federal funds. The major manpower-
related agencies receiving federal grants are the employment ser-
vices, unemployment compensation, public health, state educational
establishments, manpower programs, and urban renewal.
At the local level, about 75 percent of the city employees
are covered by merit systems. These are primarily in the larger
metropolitan areas. The county governments have been the last
stronghold of political patronage, with only about 10 percent of
the employees of this level of government presently covered by the
merit systems. Not only is "Commissioner Jones' nephew" still
being hired but county employees are still being "taxed" for "con-
tributions to flower funds" which are used for political purposes.
And while the Supreme Court in 1973 upheld the validity of the
Hatch Act, prohibiting partisan political activities by state em-
ployees paid from federal funds, as well as upholding the right of
states to limit such activities for others, not all such activities
have ended.
Nevertheless, in general, many states and local governments
are working toward more sound personnel systems. Examples of change
and improvements in administration were seen in 1973 when South
Dakota established a statewide personnel act which also clarified
the relationship of the state personnel system to labor unions.
Illinois, a center for retention of political patronage, placed an
additional 5,500 employees under its merit system. New Jersey and
-------
Maryland received federal grants to improve their personnel systems
as well as to extend assistance for such to local governments. In
Minnesota, a state personnel department was established, having
transferred to it the powers, duties, and responsibilities of its
civil service commission. In New Jersey, the length of time for
hearing appeals from personnel decisions was reduced from eighteen
months to twelve months, with its eventual goal being three months.
And in Indiana, an appeals commision was established to hear com-
plaints of regular employees as to changes of status or the quality
of working conditions.
Improvement, at least changes, in the selection procedures
were also evidenced in 1973 in Alaska which provided for the possible
certification of persons ranked below the top three. In Michigan,
the possibility of basing the number of names certified on the
basis of test score reliability was being investigated. In Arizona
and North Carolina, model affirmative action plans were developed.
In California, the formal requirement of a high school graduation
for certain jobs in which such was not job related was dropped, and
where such is still required, high school equivalency is accepted.
In Illinois, an improved system of executive promotions is being
developed. In Massachusetts, a court denied the state the right
to give veteran preference only to state residents and the state
is now administering bilingual examinations. New Mexico reports
substantial improvement in its efforts to hire the disadvantaged.
Table 6-1 presents a picture of the merit coverage, organi-
zation, and selected personnel practices of the various state per-
sonnel agencies as of August 1973-
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Table 6-1 STATE PERSONNEL AGENCIES
Coverage, Organization and Selected Policies* — August 1973
State or
other jurisdiction
Alabama
State Personnel Department
Merit System(e) .
Alaska
State Division of Personnel
Arizona
State Personnel Commission ....
Arkansas
Merit System Council
Division of Personnel(e)
California
State Personnel Board
Colorado
State Department of Personnel .
Merit System Council(e) . .
Connecticut
State Personnel Department
Delaware
Florida
Career Service System(e)
Georgia
Hawaii
Dept. of Personnel Services
Idaho
Personnel Commission
Illinois
f Department of Personnel
\ Civil Service Commission(e) . .
State Police Merit Board(e) ...
Umv Civil Service System
Indiana
State Personnel Division
Iowa
Merit Employment Department .
University System
Kansas
Kentucky
Department of Personnel
Merit System Council
Louisiana
Department of Civil Service
Maine
Department of Personnel
Maryland
Department of Personnel
Massachusetts
f Civil Service Commission
\ Bureau ol Pers. & Standardization.
Michigan
Department of Civil Service
Minnesota
Department of Civil Service
Mississippi
Merit System Councii(e)
Advisory Committee on Pers
Merit System Council
Missouri
Merit System(e)
Number of
employees
Coverage (a) covered
General
County health
General
General
Highway Patrol
Grant-m-aid
General
General
General
County public welfare
General
General
General
General
General
General
General
General
State police
Nonacademic
General
General
Nonacademic
General
General
Local health
General
General
General
General
General
General
General
Local health, welfare,
civil defense
Public welfare
Employment security
Health
Crippled children's serv.
23,678
650
6,520
15.563
500
3,668
9,988
120,000
21,647
2,200
36.500
7,050
62.000
37,127
15,340
8,100
100,000
1,600
22,151
16.614
19.000
11,500
25.000
31,000
1.292
50.283
12,500
34,444
70,000
52,673
26,433
2,635
1,140
1.000
1,292
21,000
88
Board members
No.
3
3
3
5
3
3
5
5
3
6
5
5
3
7
3
'3
3
6
4
5
10
5
5
5
5
5
1
5
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
How
appld.
G(b)
G
G(b)
G(b)
G
G(b)
G(b)
G>
G
G
G(b)
G(b)
G(b)
G(b)
G(b)
G(b)
A
G
G{b)
G(b)
G(b)
G
G
G
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TABLE 6-1 (cont.)
State or
other jurisdiction
Montana
Joint Merit System
Nebraska
Joint Merit System
Nevada
Personnel Division(e)
New Hampshire
Department of Personnel ....
New Jersey
Department of Civil Service. . . .
New Mexico
State Personnel Office ...
New York
Department of Civil Service. . . .
North Carolina
State Personnel Department . ...
North Dakota
Merit System Council
Ohio
Department of State Personnel. . .
Oklahoma
State Personnel Board
Oregon
/ Personnel Division
\ Public Employment Relations Bd,
(e) .
Pennsylvania
Civil Service Commission .
Bureau of Personnel
Rhode Island
Division of Personnel(e)
South Carolina
Merit System Council(e)
Merit System Council (e)
Personnel Division .
South Dakota
Bureau of Personnel
Tennessee
Department of Personnel
Texas
Utah
Personnel Office
Vermont
Virginia
Merit System Council(e)
Washington
West Virginia
Civil Service System ...
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Guam
Department of Administration.. .
Puerto Rico
Virgin Islands
Coverage fa)
Grant-in-aid
Grant-in-aid(h)
General
General
General
General
General
General
Grant-in-aid
General
General
General
Grant-fn-atd
General
General
Welfare(h)
Employment security
Health
General
General
Grant-in-aid
Grant-in-ald
General
General
Grant-in-ald
General
General
Grant-in-aid(h)
General
General
Grant-in-aid
General
General
General
Number of
employees
covered
1,800
3,000
6,000
7,610
161,571
11,459
156,633
58,000
1.600
78,000
21,000
30,324
75.510
118,000
11,806
1,628
841
2,076
8.000
7,959
15,000
9.242 (e)
5,451
7,144
60,000
33,000
13,000
50.623
5.448
684
3.397
58,388
6,497
Board members
No
3
3
5
3
5
5
3
7
5
3
7
3
3
7
3
7
5
1
3
3
3
3
3
3
5
'3
7
3
5
How
apptd.
G
A
G
GC
G(b)
G
G(b)
G
G
G(b)
G
G
G(b)
§»
G(b)
G
G
G
G(b)
A
G(b)
G(b)
G(b)
G
G(b)
G(b)
G
Term
(years)
3
3
4
3
5
5
6
6
5
6
7
3
6
4
4
4
5
(d)
6
4
6
6
6
6
5
'3
3
4
3
Work
for o
wori
Days
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
S
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
"ueek
ffice
kers
Hrs.
40
40
40
37.5
35
40
37.5
40
40
40
40
40
37.5
37.5
35
36
40
37.5
40
40
40
40
37.5
40
40
40
varies
40
40
37.5
40
37.5
40
No.
paid
vacation
days
15(c)
12(c)
15(c)
15
12(c)
15
12(c)
10(c)
12(c)
10(c)
15(c)
ll(c)
10(c)
10(c)
15(c)
18
15(c)
15(c)
15(c
12 (c)
10.5(c)
12(c)
12(c>
12(cJ
12 (c)
12(c)
15(c)
10
-------
6-12
It may be seen that merit systems, either general or specific,
are generally administered by state personnel offices, boards, com-
missions, or divisions of the civil service or merit system commis-
sions or councils and that the number of employees covered ranges
from sixteen hundred in North Dakota to 193,510 in Pennsylvania.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL RELATIONSHIPS
While historically, there had been almost no connection be-
tween state and local personnel systems and that of the federal
government, with the passage of the Intergovernmental Personnel
Act of 1970, a significant "foot in the door" was created. This
act provided for grants from the Civil Service Commission to state
and local governments for the creation of new and the improvement
of existing merit systems. Even the state and local governments
not wishing to establish merit systems could qualify for grants to
improve their personnel systems, but presumably on the assumption
that such improvements would eventually result in merit systems.
Under federal encouragement the temporary exchange of federal
with state and local government officials should also eventually
help achieve greater cooperation and interdependence of the various
government personnel systems.
The Act makes federal assistance available for the fulfill-
ment of state and local purposes consistent with merit principles.
Specifically, it attempts to foster greater intergovernmental
cooperation; but at the same time, it encourages innovation and
-------
6-13
and allows for diversity on the part of state and local governments
in t-ne design and management of their respective systems of person-
nel administration.
The scope of the Act includes the following:
1. Grants — Presently the Civil Service Commission is
authorized to grant a state up to 75 percent of the
total cost of developing and implementing programs to
strengthen personnel administration and training in the
state government or in its local governments or combina-
tions thereof, which serve a population of at least
fifty thousand. The Commission also may make grants
to certain other organizations for training state and
local officials and professional, administrative, and
technical employees.
2. Direct assistance —The Commission may furnish direct
technical assistance to states and localities, seeking
to improve their personnel administration systems.
3. Mobility — The temporary (up to two years with the pos-
sibility of a further extension up to two more years)
assignment of personnel between the federal government
and state and local governments and institutions of higher
learning is made possible by the Act.
4. Joint recruiting and examining — The Commission may
cooperate with state and local governments in recruiting
and examining activities on a shared-cost basis. There
-------
6-14
is already a number of intergovernmental job information
centers where there is an agreement involving cooperative
testing and joint referral of eligibles to the participat-
ing jurisdictions.
5. Interstate compacts — The consent of Congress is given
to interstate compacts for the purpose of mutual assis-
tance in developing personnel programs for state and
local governments.
6. Coordination — The Commission is to coordinate with state
and local governments such personnel administration sup-
port and technical assistance as provided by the various
federal agencies to those states and localities.
7- Merit systems — The prescription and monitoring of com-
pliance with merit system standards for those grant-in-aid
programs which require the maintenance of a merit system
were transferred by the Act to the Commission from the
agencies (e.g., the U.S. Department of Health, Education,
and Welfare) administering the grant programs.
8. Presidential advisory council — An advisory council has
been appointed by the President to study and make recom-
mendations regarding the intergovernmental dimensions
of personnel policies and programs.
he grants program encompasses the following criteria:
1. Of the available funds, 80 percent are to be distributed
by formula on a weighted basis, using factors such as
population and the number of state and local employees
-------
6-15
affected. Local governments must receive at least 50
percent of the funds allocated to the state.
2. Some 20 percent of the funds are discretionary, based
additionally upon such factors as urgency of the program,
need for funds to carry out the purposes of the Act, and
the capability of the jurisdiction to use the funds
effectively. These grants are based upon competitive
proposals.
3. No state may receive more than 12.5 percent of the appro-
priations available for any fiscal year under the Act.
4. For fiscal year 1972, the grants budget was $12.5 million;
for fiscal year 1973, it was $15 million.
5. Grant proposals may be submitted by chief executive
officers of states and of local jurisdictions which
exceed fifty thousand in population. They may also be
made by universities or by public interest groups such
as municipal leagues or similar organizations. With few
exceptions, the grants may be used for any personnel
activity, provided a state does not use federal funds
to diminish its own contribution.
Technical assistance includes the following:
1. It may deal with any personnel management or training
matters.
2. Some technical assistance must be on a reimbursable basis,
as in the case of comprehensive projects involving long-
term periods of time.
-------
6-16
3. Some technical assistance is nonreimbursable, as in the
case of short-term periods, advice on meeting merit system
standards, written technical material, and preapplication
consultation.
4. There is also the possibility for many programs of sharing
costs between the federal government and state and local
governments.
5- Both in the grants program and where technical assistance
is concerned., there is considerable interest in develop-
ing programs in which personnel problems at the state
level are considered in relation to those at the local
level. Where possible, a common strategy should be
developed to answer the needs of both. This kind of
arrangement may well help to overcome the difficulties
which arise in those programs where there are state-imposed
standards and state supervision, but where the actual
administration of the programs is local.
The federal presence at the state and local levels is also
felt through the extension of the jurisdiction of the Equal Employ-
ment Opportunity Commission to those levels, requiring the estab-
lishment of uniform record keeping and reporting responsibilities
as well as affirmative action programs for eventually guaranteeing
equal access to government employment of racial and ethnic minori-
ties as well as females.
The federal Public Service Careers program, working with
state and local government agencies, sought to promote equal access
-------
6-17
of disadvantaged groups not only to Initial employment but also to
advancement by the elimination of many discriminatory barriers as
a condition for receiving federal assistance — technical and
monetary. The Emergency Employment Act federally subsidized added
positions for state and local governments, to be allotted to the
unemployed and underemployed, especially veterans and graduates of
other manpower programs.
Through all of these programs, there has been an attempt to
gradually extend the merit principles of personnel administration
developed by the Civil Service Commission to the state and local
levels.
MEANING OF A "MERIT SYSTEM"
According to the Intergovernmental Personnel Act of 1970,
a merit system is based on:
1. Recruiting, selecting, and advancing employees on the
basis of their relative ability, knowledge, and skills,
including open consideration of qualified applicants
for initial appointment
2. Providing equitable and adequate compensation
3. Training employees, as needed, to assure high-quality
performance
4. Retraining employees on the basis of the adequacy of
their performance, correcting inadequate performance,
and separating employees whose inadequate performance
cannot be corrected
-------
6-18
5. Assuring fair treatment of applicants and employees in
all aspects of personnel administration, without regard
to political affiliation, race, color, national origin,
sex, or religious creed, and with proper regard for their
privacy and constitutional rights as citizens
6. Assuring that employees are protected against coercion or
exploitation for partisan political purposes and are
prohibited from using their official authority for the
purpose of interfering with or affecting the result of an
election or nomination for office
When the idea of a merit system first began to take hold in
the late nineteenth century (and well into the twentieth), the pre-
vailing philosophy was to "keep the rascals out." Today the approach
is a more positive one of attempting to attract the very best. There
is a growing tendency to see the need for continuously challenging
and reexamining whatever potential barriers exist to this objective.
Today the emphasis is more on vigorously pursuing the goal of
recruiting talented and able persons for the public service.
Effective merit system implementation is less and less viewed
in negative "watch-dog" terms. In recent years there has been an
attempt to open public employment to a broader segment of society,
as illustrated by the concern of merit systems generally with
developing "affirmative action" plans for recruiting members of
minority groups and women, and to employ the disadvantaged in order
to achieve the goal of equal employment opportunity.
-------
6-19
The old conflict between merit and patronage, in the view of
some observers, is fading in importance as the public service be-
comes more and more professionalized and organized, requiring
specialized expertise and frequently requiring credentials by
professional organizations. However, the impact of the merit system
has been uneven. With some categories of positions such as those
in public health, the merit system, coupled with the factors men-
tioned above, has significantly raised the competence level of
public employment. With some other categories, however, the impact
of merit principles has been less obvious.
ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF STATE PERSONNEL OFFICES
Some central personnel agencies are legally independent of
political control by the governor. This independence, however, may
be real or it may only have that appearance. In some states, re-
sponsibility for the personnel function is vested in a board,
usually with members having overlapping terms, or it might be
vested in a single director. Even where the latter pattern prevails,
there is usually a board with advisory or appellate powers.
Some personnel affairs are being increasingly decentralized
to the operating agencies, particularly in areas such as position
classification. However, the state personnel agency will necessarily
perform most if not all of the following functions:
1. Developing and recommending broad personnel policies to
the legislature or chief executive.
2. Providing guidance on personnel management within the
framework provided by the legislature or the chief
executive.
-------
6-20
3. Supervising the development of a position classification
plan, based upon the duties, responsibilities, and quali-
fications of positions within the personnel agency's
jurisdiction. This involves more than describing and
allocating positions, but "job engineering" as well (i.e.,
the analysis of work functions and regrouping of component
parts so that employees work at their maximum skills and
abilities to the fullest possible extent). It involves
the following:
a. Classification is the grouping together in categories
of those positions which are sufficiently similar in
duties and responsibilities and which can be treated
alike. Standard titles are provided, as well as a
standard format for statements relating to common
duties, responsibilities, and qualifications. The
expectation is that a rational system of organization
exists, providing an objective basis for compensa-
tion, recruitment, appointment, and promotion.
b. The qualifications for a given position in a person-
nel system with a classification plan based upon
current job analysis are directly related to the
examination process. Moreover, the education and
experience requirements serve to screen prospective
candidates, eliminating those who do not possess
reasonable minimum qualifications from the examina-
tion process.
-------
6-21
c. A classification plan is most commonly devised by
having employees describe their own duties, supple-
mented by oral interviews conducted preferably by
personnel specialists and checked against super-
visor and peer opinions.
d. Job analysis results in the identification of the
kinds of education and training which can be rea-
sonably expected to produce the skills, knowledge,
and abilities necessary for the job. Minimum
qualifications ought not to include any require-
ment which can be easily acquired on the job after
appointment. They should represent essential mini-
mum backgrounds, not ideal ones.
e. Job classification is not an exact science. There
are occasionally some incorrect, arbitrary decisions
involved, and there should be a mechanism for em-
ployees to use if they think that their jobs are
misclassifled. Moreover, jobs themselves change
in such a way that no classification plan should be
viewed as static.
4. Leadership in the recruiting of qualified personnel, with
ideally a broad view of identifying sources of talent.
5. The administration of the selection process, which should
include several parts (e.g., written and oral examinations
and performance examination whenever appropriate, reference
checks). It is highly desirable that the various operating
-------
6-22
personnel offices play a direct role in the development
of examinations for the purpose of helping to ensure
that the examinations measure qualities directly related
to the positions for which the tests are designed.
6. The administration of a pay plan, often based upon the
job classification plan, but with continuing attention
to compensation schedules for comparable positions in the
private sector and other public jurisdictions and to con-
siderations of social equity (i.e.: Is the jurisdiction's
compensation plan adequate in relation to government's
moral obligation to pay a living wage?).
7. The establishment and implementation of procedures for
attendance, leave, conduct and discipline, promotion and
transfer, separations, performance evaluation, working
conditions, fringe benefits, and appeals and grievances.
8. The design, layout, and monitoring of overall in-service
training programs and the training implementations for
common classes of personnel. This is a growing function
of state personnel agencies.
9. The conduct of research as to how personnel policies
affect both productivity and morale, and the recommend-
ing to the governor or the legislature of changes and
improvements.
A few specific examples of how the state personnel agency
might exercise responsibility are as follows:
-------
6-23
1. The state personnel agency might be engaged in manpower
planning. A possibility considerably enhanced with the
Civil Service Commission action of 197^ requires federal
agency manpower planning. Specifically, this might mean
that it would play the leading role in developing policy
on recruitment. It might attempt to exert special efforts
to attract qualified students from educational institu-
tions where minority students predominate. Another strat-
egy might be to produce a career directory for college-
level positions, particularly at junior entrance levels.
Moreover, it might play a pioneer role in supplying train-
ing needs where new programs suddenly assume overriding
importance, accompanied by a lack of qualified individuals
with technical competence to manage those programs.
2. If complaints of discrimination by the entrance tests
against minorities were received by the state personnel
agency, it would review the tests, and might find that
they did not really measure the skills necessary to start
the job. In that event, the agency should take steps to
modify the testing program accordingly, in keeping with
equal employment opportunity objectives and sound selec-
tion principles.
3. If there were a substantial number of grievances relating
to performance evaluation, the state personnel agency might
conclude that the evaluation instrument measured too
greatly such things as personality traits, rather than
-------
6-24
actual work performance, and as a result, might modify
the instrument. Or it might find that supervisors were
not using the instrument as it was intended to be used,
in which case the state personnel agency might institute
a training program for supervisors to rectify errors in
administration of the evaluation programs.
Of growing importance in the state personnel picture are
consultation and negotiation with employee organizations, including
labor unions, on issues relating to personnel policy. Feedback from
these sessions will aid the state personnel staff in making employee
functions more meaningful, not only to the agency but to the em-
ployees themselves.
Beyond the question of the roles and responsibilities of the
state personnel office is the relationship between that office and
the governor. As one writer said:
Most progress in personnel administration . . . seems
GO &ave come where the political system has produced leader-
ship able to inspire administrative staffs with such deep
VJ iterest and regard for effective performance that compe-
tent persons have been attracted to public employment and
the attitude and productivity of employees have improved.
Finally, it is apparent that everything done by the state
personnel agency bears a relationship to individual and group
morale and therefore probably to productivity as well.
RELATIONS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL PERSONNEL OFFICE AND
THE OPERATING AGENCY PERSONNEL OFFICE
In the view of some observers, there is a tendency to
decentralize authority to the operating office, trusting it to
act on its own responsibility. There is considerable debate
-------
6-25
concerning whether this decentralization is an unmixed blessing.
Generally, in instances when some decentralization has occurred, the
central office makes policy and the operating offices carry it out.
It follows in those instances that a main function of the central
office is the reviewing and monitoring of the work of the operating
personnel office. The state has a vested interest in preserving
some elements of central direction in the interest of consistency.
However, as the volume of business grows, there is considerable
advantage in expediting the answer to as many questions as possible
at the point where they arise. There is also the need to adjust
programs to local conditions, further reinforcing the importance
of delegating authority.
One vital element of the relationship between the state per-
sonnel office and the agency offices is record keeping and report-
ing. The better the system of record keeping established by the
operating personnel office, the better able it will be to respond
to requests for reports and the better can be the manpower planning.
COORDINATION AND COMMUNICATION
Organizations depend upon two-way communication between manage-
ment and subordinates — both formal and informal. Effective com-
munication involves receiving and understanding as well as telling.
Experiments have shown that one-way communication is speedier, but it
is less accurate as well as less effective in assuring coordination.
When the sender receives feedback from tiose for whom the message
is intended, he may conclude that the message sent should be modi-
fied. Feedback from the receiver is necessary to confirm that the
real message has been received and coordination is taking place.
-------
6-26
The more access to management allowed to subordinates by those
in authority, the less difficulty in communication there is likely
to be. Communication may follow official channels — or it may not.
There is general recognition that when communication bogs down in
channels, there is something wrong with the arrangement of the chan-
nels. Effective organizations make sure that communications get
through to their intended recipients even if the channels themselves
need to be altered.
Prom another perspective, the purpose of any communication
system is to provide each employee with the information he or she
needs to do the job. When there is excessive interference with the
transmission of messages, even though the interferences may be
psychological rather than physical, that job is made more difficult.
It is a primary management function to reduce or eliminate that
interference.
The following may be classified as examples of barriers to
organizational communication:
1. Distance — Infrequent face-to-face supervision creates
difficulties.
2. Distortion — Problems reaching the manager often involve
both factual data and feelings, emotions, and psychological
distortions. It is frequently difficult to separate them.
3. Lack of trust — The subordinate's expectations concern-
ing how the manager responds to communications he or she
receives from a subordinate will determine what the sub-
ordinate will commuiicate in the future.
-------
6-27
4. Substituting personalities for Issues -- Sometimes issues
are personalized, making communication difficult, if not
impossible.
5. Semantic differences — The same word may often be inter-
preted differently by different persons. Management
should be sensitive to the need for clarity in terminology,
CONTEMPORARY WAGES IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR
At one time it may have been possible for the public adminis-
trator to act in a relative vacuum in determining wages and fringe
benefits. With inflation, expanding labor markets, and most im-
portantly increasing worker militancy and unionization, this is no
longer true. An internally consistent wage system may be developed,
but to be viable it must take into consideration the relevant labor
market.
The relevant labor market for each occupation or closely
related group of occupations differs. A nationwide labor market
may exist for scientists and engineers, while a regional one exists
for computer technicians, and a local market for secretaries, craft-
workers, and laborers. But whatever the market, it must be taken
into account in the development of a wage system by any public
agency. To avoid such consideration may result in recruitment
difficulties, excessive voluntary quits, morale problems, and
unionization or strike activity. This observation is no 3ess true
for public service employment than it is for the private sector.
As the personnel systems of the local and state governments
and of the federal and state governments tecome increasingly
-------
6-28
interrelated, the differentials in pay schedules of many of the
respective employees will tend to narrow as workers transfer from
relatively poorly rewarded jobs to relatively well rewarded posi-
tions. What is actually happening in this process is an expansion
of the relevant labor market.
While pay and fringe benefit considerations are not the only
determinants of the extent of union activity, in this day substan-
dard compensation becomes a primary target for such activity. If
a union does not exist, one will tend to find entrance. If it
already exists, it will exploit the disparities. To minimize union
confrontation, manpower planners must recognize the need for compen-
sation to be at least competitive.
One of the primary complaints of civil service at all levels
has been its wage rigidity — the attempt to maintain pay schedules
beyond the point of viability. It is suggested that instead of
using a short-cut benchmark occupation against which other related
occupations are measured for pay purposes, a more complete survey
be conducted on a periodic basis, showing prevailing wage rates for
a substantial group of related occupations at various levels, using
the labor market that is appropriate for each occupation or group
of occupations. If this is done frequently enough, public service
pay will be competitive anc therefore not the primary source of
worker discontent. All of this of course assumes that the adminis-
trator will be able to come up with the budget necessary to make
compensation competitive.
-------
6-29
Of course, if this is to be done, determination of a nation-
wide pay scale for a given occupation would be appropriate only
for those occupations for which there is a national labor market.
For many occupations, especially clerical, craft, custodial, and
labor with less than national markets, the federal civil service
has decentralized its pay scales to take this into consideration.
It is also suggested that in developing a fringe benefit
package, its total size be determined as a percentage of payroll
costs and compared with such packages in the appropriate labor
market. After this is done, the composition of the packet can be
determined in consultation with affected persons.
ORGANIZATION OF MANPOWER PLANNING
IN THE FEDERAL PUBLIC SECTOR
The tentative policy statement of the Civil Service Commission
on manpower planning issued in September 197^ had two objectives in
mind: (1) to provide a management tool which would demonstrate the
importance of manpower planning in overall planning, and (2) to es-
tablish an effective data system for manpower planning. Recogniz-
ing the deficiency of expertise In manpower planning in the various
departments of government the Commission planned to provide the
following assistance: (1) training courses, (2) training modules,
(3) guidelines, (4) research in methodologies, (5) technical assis-
tance, and (6) a clearing house for information.
One of the interesting things about the issuance is that the
Commission sees an Executive Order of 19^7 and a Presidential
Memorandum of 1969 as the source of authority for instituting a
-------
6-30
program of manpower planning within the federal establishment. One
cannot help but wonder why it took so long for the Commission to
implement such a policy. It sees organization of manpower planning
as "a vital and continuing function of federal organization manage-
ment" in all agencies of government with a major role in: (1) plan-
ning and budgeting, (2) maintaining and improving quality and
efficiency, (3) meeting responsibilities in an "efficient economical
and timely way," and (4) integration of personnel management pro-
cesses with each other and with other management systems.
The manpower planning system envisioned by the Commission
would have the following functions:
1. Participation of manpower planning in the overall manage-
ment planning system
2. Performance of such manpower analyses as:
a. The size, composition, skills, and so on of both
the onboard and planned manpower
b. Levels and trends of work force attrition and
position flows (transfers)
c. Effects of management actions and policies on the
work force
3. Estimation of future manpower requirements
4. Summary of future manpower requirements
5. Analysis of feasibility, costs, and the like, and staff-
ing actions made necessary by the establishment of opera-
tional goals
6. Recommendation on changes in current or proposed work
force or budget estimates
-------
6-31
Y. Establishment of and maintaining a data system
8. Provision for regular and systematic evaluation of the
effectiveness of system policies
As may be seen in later chapters, these are essentially the
steps suggested by the authors for micromanpower planning in the
public sector. It may also be seen that the establishment of such
a system rationalizes the traditional functions of personnel manage-
ment, but extending them beyond tradition, involving them in the
organization's overall planning efforts. Certainly the Civil
Service Commission issuance constitutes an official acceptance of
the need for manpower planning by federal agencies.
-------
7.
HUMAN ENGINEERING1
Data derived from the disciplines of industrial engineering
and industrial psychology can be used extensively in manpower plan-
ning in the public sector. We shall refer to these and related
disciplines as "human engineering." Industrial engineering brings
to human engineering the knowledge of equipment layout, work flow,
job or task time requirements, and safe use of plant facilities.
Industrial psychology makes its contribution in the area of testing,
selection, placement, training, counseling, and evaluation of workers
Both disciplines are concerned with developing and implementing pro-
grams to promote efficient manpower use. Therefore our purpose here
is to (1) give the manpower planner a capability to apply manpower
planning criteria, (2) provide a means for understanding the dis-
ciplines, methods, and concepts applied to develop the criteria, and
(3) provide a means for understanding how the methods and concepts
of human engineers — industrial engineers and industrial psycholo-
gists -- can be applied to overcome problems and improve practices
related to manpower recruitment, use, and retention.
The material in this part of the manual is from a paper
submitted by C. E. Smith and L. H. Park, Department of Industrial
Engineering, Iowa State University, March 1973-
The work of C. E. Smith and K. L. McRoberts of Iowa State
University has been used extensively in this part of the manual.
Drs. Smith and McRoberts coauthored a study titled, "Estimating
Manpower Requirements and Selected Cost Factors for Small Waste-
water Treatment Plants, Part 1."
-------
7-2
Manpower planning as seen by the "human engineers" is the
act of:
1. Determining the organization's manpower need in terms of
numbers, skills, and capabilities, and matching these
needs in terms of skills, capabilities, and numbers
2. Determining the future manpower needs in terms of numbers,
skills, and capabilities based on expected retirement and
turnover rates and the anticipated growth (or decline) of
the service provided to identify future human resource
needs in terms of skills, capabilities, and numbers with
the expected date when these needs will be paramount
3. Determining training requirements and developing pro-
grams to meet the manpower and training needs and over-
come problems of manpower recruitment, retention, and use
Manpower planning therefore results in personnel policies and
practices which support the filling of current manpower needs as
well as future manpower needs. Manpower planning will also have
an influence and effect on the present and future recruitment and
selection procedures used and on the type and amount of training
and development offered to personnel. The establishment of employ-
ment goals, training programs, and budget needs is based on man-
power planning done by administrators, design engineers, state
agency inspectors, and so on.
An essential step in manpower planning is the development of
a "manpower staffing plan." To do the staffing, the manpower planner
must first analyze the current system. System analysis identifies
-------
7-3
the objectives and evaluates the different strategies which are
available for achievement of the objectives. It is the act of
studying a total system to identify and evaluate:
1. All inputs into the system, such as personnel, raw
materials, equipment, and so forth
2. The actions and transformation activities being performed
by personnel and physical facilities on other system in-
puts to achieve system objectives, and the time and
frequency performance associated with these actions
3. The interrelationships between the different actions and
activities
4. The outputs of the system as compared to desired
obj ectives
5. The alternative actions and activities available for
achieving system objectives
The result of a complete system analysis will be, among other
things, the identification of those treatment activities being per-
2
formed by the present facilities, the "work tasks" which need to
be performed by the plant personnel in providing these treatment
activities, and the time required to perform these tasks.
For the purposes of this manual, a work task is defined as
an action or action sequence grouped through time and designed to
contribute a specified end result to the accomplishment of an
objective and for which functional levels and orientation can be
reliably assigned. The task action or action sequence may be
primarily physical, such as operating an electric typewriter, or
primarily mental, such as analyzing data, or primarily interpersonal,
such as consulting with another person.
-------
7-4
The planners for each government facility must accomplish the
above, either superficially or after great study and thought. In
either case, some guidelines for determining job assignments with
their job descriptions and specifications would be helpful.
To aid the planners in this analysis, a "conceptual model,"
such as that shown in Figure 7.1, is provided to show pictorially
the dynamic characteristics of work relationships and those variables
which influence the effectiveness of human effort at work and their
relationships. Variables that are discussed in some detail are
represented by a circle, while a rectangle identifies those var-
iables which influence, or are influenced by, the variables studied.
For identification purposes, each variable is represented by a
number. The arrows indicate direction of influence; thus:
A—^B means A influences B.
SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS
One of the primary concerns of the manpower planner is in-
creasing the effectiveness of a system of facility. "System effec-
tiveness" (variable 1) represents the extent to which the system
produces acceptable product or service and is influenced by three
major variables: (1) the quality of the raw material of the inputs,
(2) the present physical facilities (variable 2), and (3) the job
performance by the employees (variable 15) (Figure 7.2).
Another way of representing this relationship is to state the
following expression:
-------
7-5
Job
Performance
(15)
'
1 \
\
1
\
\
1
Actual
Worker
Abilities
(12)
1
—
\
\
System
Effectiveness
(1)
4
Raw Material
\ Input
\
\
\
\
\
i
\
\ (17)
\
\
OTHER FACTORS:
Pay, Motivation,
Working Conditions,
Supervision,
Other (16)
\ _^
\
V
^x
\
\
Selection \
(11) N
Physical
Facilities
(2)
FIGURE 7-1. Dynamic Characteristics of Work Relation^-, .ps
and Variables (1 through 17) Which Influence the
Effectiveness of Human Effort
-------
7-6
System effectiveness = f(JP, PF, I, 0) where
JP = job performance
PF = physical facilities
I = raw materials
0 = other variables
In our model, the "other variables" are not identified and are
assumed to be relatively insignificant.
Physical Facilities
"Physical facilities" (variable 2) represents the current and
given physical facilities at a given location. These facilities
might be (1) new, old, or middle aged, (2) well maintained or in
some degree of disrepair, and (3) excellently designed, poorly
designed, or somewhere in between.
This variable influences, as we have shown in Figure 7.3, the
total system effectiveness. It is also the major variable influ-
encing the "unit processes" (variable 3), for the activities
performed at any location are a function of the condition and state
of the physical resources of the facility. This can be represented
by:
Unit processes = f(PF)
where
PF = the physical facilities
Unit Processes
"Unit processes" (variable 3) identifies the different func-
tions. Each unit process of function accomplishes a specified end
result which contributes to the total objective of the facility.
-------
7-7
Job
Performance
(15)
System
Effectiveness
(1)
T
Physical
Facilities
(2)
Raw
material
input
FIGURE 7-2. Influence of Job Performance, Physical
Facility, and Inputs on System Effecteness
System
Effectiveness
(1)
Physical
Facilities
(2)
FIGURE 7-3- Influence of Physical Facilities on
Total System Effectiveness
-------
Another way of viewing the unit process variable is to see it
as representing a way of classifying or categorizing portions of
the total area of responsibility according to their function. The
unit processes influence the work tasks (variable 4) which must be
performed, by the .human resource as the operation and maintenance
function of the given facility (Figure 7-4).
Work tasks are performed by human resources in conjunction
With the physical facilities as the specified treatment activity is
accomplished. Only by the introduction of the human element do
the physical facilities and their resulting activities become
operational. The effective operation of the physical facilities
requires that certain functions be performed by the human resource
Physical
Facilities
(2)
FIGURE 7.4.
Influence of Physical Facilities and Unit Processes
on the Work Tasks
-------
input. The "work tasks" (variable 4) therefore represent the
variety of different work tasks which are associated with a partic-
ular operation. Work tasks will vary in their complexity and in
their demands upon the employee, and are a function of the "unit
processes" performed, and are basic building blocks in determining
specific job assignments (variable 6, see Figure 7-5).
Job
f Assignment'
A
(6)
FIGURE 7.5. Basic Building Blocks for Specific Job Assignments
-------
7-10
Time Task Requirement
Each task is measured in terms of the time (variable 5) which
the performance of that task should be expected to require.
Job Assignments
Job design is the act of determining which specific work tasks
will be grouped together and considered as a work unit for assign-
ment to one individual. The resulting group of work tasks assigned
to one employee is considered a work job assignment (variable 6)
shown in Figure 7.6. This may be represented by:
Job assignment A = selected work tasks
Each work task requires an action or behavior on the part of
the employee which takes time and places various "demands" on the
individual. The normal approach to job design is to group work
tasks so that the time demand upon the individual for the total
job represents the time the individual is hired to work. Normally
this represents an eight-hour workday.
Job Demands
The work tasks are also combined, where possible, so that
demands on the individual by the various work tasks are similar.
That is, either all of the work tasks place minimal demands on the
individual or the majority of the work tasks place considerable, yet
comparable, demands on the individual. Job demands (variable 8)
therefore are influenced by the job assignment and the work tasks
associated with that assignment. The job demands variable represents
-------
7-H
the abilities, personal traits, and individual characteristics
required of the employee to adequately perform the job assignment.
Job Specifications or Descriptions
Once the job assignment has been determined and the resulting
job demands identified, the job description or job specification
(variable 9) can be written (Figure ?.?)•
The job description is a statement in rather general terms
about the tasks which comprise the job being described. It includes
a description of
1. What actions or work tasks are to be performed by the
worker
2. What accomplishments are expected by these actions or work
tasks
3. The tools or equipment the worker is expected to use or
operate
4. The degree of discretion the job holder has in determining
when actions are to be taken (i.e., whether actions are
prescribed by others or by equipment, or whether they
are the discretion of the worker)
The job's design influences the job description. It also
determines, as has been noted, what demands the job will place on
the individual.
Selection
The selection decision is based on the applicant's ability
to perform the job, based on job specifications (variable 9; Figure 7.8)
-------
7-12
Job
Demands
(8)
FIGURE 7
Components of the Job Assignment
FIGURE 7.7- Influences on the Job Specification and Description
-------
Typically an entry-level examination is administered to assist in
this determination.
The individual selected brings to the job and the organization
specific capabilities and capacities (variable 12). It will be un-
usual if the employee selected brings to the organization the neces-
sary requisites to fulfill the job demands immediately. In all
probability, the job's demands will exceed in some manner the capa-
bilities of the employee when employed, and the employee's defi-
ciencies must then be reduced through a training program.
Training
Training needs (variable 13) are thus immediately a function
of the job specifications (variable 9). Training needs, once
identified, should then lead to specific training activities (var-
iable 14) .
Training is defined as effort directed toward increasing an
individual's skills and capabilities (variable 12). If it is ef-
fective, it results in modification of the Individual's behavior
and capabilities and leads, it is hoped, to improved job performance
and effectiveness. As the individual's capabilities are modified
and changed through training, there is a corresponding revision of
the individual's deficiencies and thereby the training needs
(variable 13).
Opportunities for appropriate training include formal academic
programs (leading to two- and four-year degrees), "short courses"
on university or community college campuses, correspondence courses,
and on-the-job training in the operating facility.
-------
7-14
Actual
Employee
Abilities
(12)
T
Training
Activities
(14)
FIGURE 7.8. Selection Based on Job Specifications
-------
7-15
Job Performance
The individual's job performance (variable 15; Figure 7-9)
is influenced by the following:
Job performance = f(EC, JS, TA and OF)
where
EC = the given employee's capabilities (variable 12)
JS = the job specifications or description (variable 9)
TA = the time allocated to the job (variable 5)
OF = other significant factors (variable 16)
The need for well-trained, highly capable employees to achieve highly
effective job performance is without question. There is a direct
relationship between the employee's job performance and his capabil-
ities at a point in time. Other factors being equal, an increase in
the employee's job capabilities will increase the possibility for
improved job performance.
There are other variables, however, which are significant in
influencing job performance. One is the time allocated to the total
job or the specific work tasks (variable 5). Given equally capable
individuals and identical job assignments requiring six hours of
time, the worker allocated eight hours of time to perform the assign-
ment will usually achieve better job performance than the individual
allocated less time, say four hours, for the same assignment.
Likewise, the employee's attitude toward the job, its pay,
the supervisor, and the working conditions generally will greatly
influence the employee's level of motivation and the effort expended
on the job (variable 17). While the cause and effect relationships
-------
7-16
System
Effectiveness
(1)
f
Job
Performance
(15)
Job
Specification
or Description
(9)
Actual
Worker
Abilities
(12)
Pay, Motivation,
Working Condition,
Supervision (16)
FIGURE 7.9. Bases of Job Performance
-------
7-17
are difficult to identify positively, it is generally true that low
or inequitable pay, poor supervision, undesirable working conditions,
and the lack of recognition will each influence attitudes negatively
and reduce levels of motivation, and thereby cause less effective
job performance.
Improved Effectiveness
We have now come full circle . . . for the importance and
influence of job performance on the plant's effectiveness have been
recognized. The complete model is again given in Figure 7.10. To
complete our conceptual model we have added two additional variables.
First, we recognize that facility effectiveness is determined by
comparing the facility's performance against predetermined goals or
desired performance. These goals are influenced by local, state,
and federal agencies and are a variable (18) to the extent that one
desires and attempts to achieve a higher quality output. A "goals"
variable has, therefore, been added to the model as they affect
management decisions.
The second additional variable is now a "management decision"
variable (variable 19). This recognizes that the managers of each
new government facility will compare the facility's effectiveness
against the goals which have been established. When facility's
effectiveness is below the goal, the facility's manager will deter-
mine what action is required to improve effectiveness. The actions
taken to improve facility effectiveness in these instances will be
varied. The possible decisions include:
-------
7-18
1. Modification of the physical facilities
2. Rearrangement of work tasks into job assignments for
improved worker use
3. Increased training activities
4. Allocation of increased time for job performance
^'. Increased pay for job assignments
6. Improved worker selection techniques
7. Improved use of the human resources through better
supervision
8. Changes in raw material inputs (variable 17)
Development of Planning Criteria
The chart shown in Figure 7.11 provides an illustration of
the steps required to prepare job descriptions and job specifications
This chart is supported by Figures 7-12 and 7-13 which provide pic-
torial illustrations of the steps discussed herein. Three new
terms, "occupational definition" (step 8), "qualifications profile"
(step 9), and "staffing guide" (step 11) have been introduced.
OCCUPATIONAL DEFINITION AND QUALIFICATIONS PROFILE
The term "occupational definition" corresponds with the term
"job description" previously identified. The major difference is
that an occupational definition applies in general terms to person-
nel performing a group of tasks. They serve as tools or guides for
the preparation of job descriptions which are provided for as
specific job or family of jobs at a given facility.
There are two significant inputs leading to occupational defi-
nitions. First, there is the quantitative process such as work
-------
7-19
Job
Performance
(15)
System
Effectiveness
(1)
Physical
Facilities
(2)
\
\
1
Raw Material
Input
(17)
\
OTHER FACTORS:
Pay, Motivation,
Working Conditions,
Supervision,
Other (16)
Management
Decision
(19)
I
[ 1
Actual
Worker
Abilities
(12)
FIGURE 7-10. Dynamic Characteristics of Work Relationships and
Variables (1 through 19) Which Influence the
Effectiveness of Human Effort
-------
simplification, methods engineering, time and motion study, and work
measurement. These methods are applied in the design and layout of
the physical facilities, unit processes, the design of work tasks,
and the grouping of work tasks. Also considered is the design and
location of equipment to facilitate performance of required work
tasks, this concern for coordination is often referred to as "human
factors engineering."
Step
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Determine total unit processes to be accomplished (see A, Fig. 7.12).
Describe the tasks within each treatment activity (see
B, Fig. 7.12).
Estimate the time required to perform each task (see Table 7.2).
Group tasks according to general task categories (see
C, Fig. 7.12).
Evaluate groups in terms of kind of work performed and
technology (see B and C, Fig. 7.12).
Determine if cumulative totals of estimates of workday time
for the tasks in tentative groups will justify full-time jobs (see Table 7.3).
Evaluate and adjust groups until most feasible practical
arrangements of tasks are developed.
Prepare occupational definitions (see D and E, Fig. 7.13).
Determine job demands (general) (see F, Fig. 7.13).
Prepare qualifications profile (see G, Fig. 7.13).
Formulate staffing guide (see Fig. 7.15).
Determine certification requirements.
Determine job assignments.
Prepare detailed job descriptions.
Determine job demands (specific).
Prepare |Ob specifications
FIGURE 7.11. Chart for the Preparation of Job Descriptions and
Job .Specifications
-------
Unit
Processes
(A)
Sewer and Lift
Station Maintenance
Screening or
Comminuting
Tasks
Primary
Settling
Tanks
Grit
Removal
Raw Sludge,
Dewatering, and
Disposal Tasks
Sludge
Digestion
Other
Tasks
(B)
Hand-Cleaning
Grit Chambers
Mechanical
Grit
Removal
Other
Operation
Maintenance of
Equipment
House-
keeping
Other
Maintenance
Analysis
of
Grit
Supervision
Task Categories
(C)
Operations
Maintenance
Laboratory
Administration
Note: The operator of a wastewater treatment plant is the example.
FIGURE 7-12. Steps Required to Perform a Job (Worker Function Scale)
-------
E) Occupational
Description — a statement
containing such items as:
• Actions or work tasks to
be performed
• Accomplishments expected
Tools and/or equipment
• Supervision given or
received
• Working conditions
• Hazards
Job Demands (general)
— the abilities
personal traits, and individual
characteristics required to per-
form job assignment
Education
Experience
• Training
Judgment
Initiative
Physical effort
1 Physical skills
• Communication skills
• Emotional charac-
teristics
• Unusual sensory demands
such as sight, smell,
hearing
• Degree of discretion
I
IV)
ru
G) Qualifications
Profile — a statement which identifies and summarizes
the worker trait components required for the specific
occupation
Worker function level for
data, people, things
General education requirements
Specific vocational preparation
needed
Interests
Temperaments
Physical requirements
Orientation
FIGURE 7.13. Additional Steps Required to Perform a Specific Job
-------
7-23
Second, the qualitative process (job study) involves the sub-
jective determination of the characteristics that are required of
an employee to perform a particular job. A statement which in
general terms the job demands, the minimum requirements of the
individual selected to perform the given job assignment, is typi-
cally identified as the "qualifications profile." It also identi-
fies those abilities, personal traits, and individual characteristics
required of a worker to achieve average-successful job performance.
A qualifications profile corresponds with the term "job spec-
ifications." Again the major difference is the degree of general-
ization, in that a job specification is prepared for a specific Job
at a given facility. The qualifications profile serves only as a
model or planning tool as a representative, for an occupational
definition used alone recognizes the inclusion of a qualifications
profile.
It is recognized that work tasks may vary in complexity, from
the simple to the highly complex, and thereby place differential
demands upon the worker. The method used by the U.S. Employment
Service for describing what workers do while performing a given
work task recognizes that all work is related, in some manner, to
data, people, or things: "What workers do as they perform the tasks
that make up their jobs, they do in relation to data, people, and
things. All jobs involve the workers, to some extent, with Informa-
tion or ideas (data), with clients or co-workers (people), and with
machines or equipment (things)."
-------
Each work task places unique demands upon the worker. If a
task requires the worker to be involved with machines or equipment
(things), the worker will use physical resources (strength, dex-
terity, motor coordination, and so on). Work tasks which require
the worker to communicate and use information or ideas (data), will
require the worker to use mental resources (knowledge, thought,
decision making, insight). And finally, work which requires the
worker to associate with customers, and co-workers (people), will
'require the worker to use interpersonal and social resources.
The concrete and specific actions workers perform in
relation to data, people, and things as they execute dif-
ferent tasks can probably be described in an infinite number
of ways; that is, there are as many specific ways of express-
ing what workers do in relation to data, people, and things
as there are specific tasks to be performed or unique content
and conditions to which to relate. While there may be an
infinite number of ways of describing tasks, there is only
a handful of significant patterns of behavior (functions)
which describe how workers use themselves in relation to
data, people, things.
These patterns of behavior which have been articulated as
describing generally the entire universe of work are defined in
"worker function scales" (Figure 7.1*0-
The functions in each of the three areas of data, people,
and things can be defined by a worker function scale, in
which the performance requirements range from the simple to
the complex in an ordinal scale. The scale is ordinal (that
is, one in which any point on the scale includes lower levels
and excludes higher ones). For example, on scanning the worker
function scale for data, when one selects the compiling func-
tion as the appropriate worker behavior to describe the way
a worker must relate to information in a given task, he is
deciding two things: (1) that the worker's performance is
more complex than copying and less complex than analyzing;
and (2) that the worker must be able to perform all or at
least comprehend all the data functions below compiling, but
does not have to be able to perform or comprehend higher
functions such as analyzing or coordinating (emphasis added).
-------
DATA
PEOPLE
THINGS
SYNTHESIZING
COORDINATING,
INNOVATING
ANALYZING
MENTORING
NEGOTIATING
SUPERVISING
\ I
PRECISION WORKING,
SETTING UP
MANIPULATING,
OPERATING-CONTROLLING,
DRIVING-CONTROLLING
COMPUTING^
COMPILING
COPYING
COMPARING
CONSULTING, INSTRUCTING,
TREATING
COACHING, PERSUADING
DIVERTING
EXCHANGING INFORMATION
\ /
TAKING INSTRUCTIONS - HELPING
SERVING
HANDLING,
FEEDING-OFFBEARING,
TENDING
FIGURE 7-14. Summary Chart of Worker Function Scales
-------
7-26
It is now possible to identify the "level" and "orientation"
of a job — measures of the job's demands on the individual (variable
8). The level of a task indicates its relative complexity. It is
expressed by selecting the appropriate pattern of behavior on each
of the worker function scales. The ordinal position of the function
on each scale is the level measure. Thus for the data function scale,
tasks requiring computing and compiling are a higher level than
those requiring only copying.
The orientation measure indicates the relative involvement of
the worker with data, people, and things as he or she performs a
given job assignment. For example, Table 7-1 shows a job which
requires 50 percent of the worker's time working with data at a
copying level, ^0 percent of the worker's time working with people
in the exchange of information, and 10 percent of the worker's time
relating to things at the handling level.
A job specification therefore summarizes the worker trait
components which are required of the worker assigned a specific
job. The specification identifies:
1. Worker function level for data, people, and things
2. General education requirements
3. Specific vocational preparation needed
4. Approximate interest
5. Temperaments required
6. Physical demands of the job
7. Working conditions of the job
-------
7-27
TABLE 7-1
Example Job Level and Orientation Profile
Area Functional Level Orientation
Data Copying
People Exchange information
Things Handling
A more detailed discussion of the "components and benchmarks"
is used by the Labor Department in describing worker characteristics
and abilities that contribute to successful job performance.
STAFFING GUIDE
The staffing guide (step 11 of Figure 7.11) depicts in model
form the total manpower requirement for all on-site personnel re-
quired for operation and maintenance of a facility. The staffing
guide shown in Figure 7.15 was compiled and developed for activated
Q
sludge wastewater treatment plants by Black and Veatch. A staffing
guide is developed from time values, for unit process followed by
aggregating the processes as appropriate. In the example provided,
the time for each process was computed for both operation and
maintenance and then totaled. Table 7-2 can be developed from the
plant staffing summary. Table 7-3 provides a form for such a
summary and development of a staff complement. In using the latter
W. L. Patterson and R. F. Banker, Estimating Costs and Man-
power Requirements for Conventional Wastewater Treatmert Facilities
(Washington, D.C.:U.S.Government Printing Office,1971), prepared
for the Office of Research and Monitoring, Environmental Protection
Agency, by Black & Veatch Consulting Engineers, p. 181.
-------
Occupation Title
I 3
Plant Average Day Capacity, mgd
10
20
35
50
65
80
100
Superintendent
Assistant Superintendent
Clerk Typist
Operations Supervisor
Shift Foreman
Operator II
Operator 1
Auto. Equipment Operator
Maintenance Supervisor
Mech. Maintenance Foreman
Maintenance Mechanic II
Maintenance Mechanic 1
Electrician II
Electrician 1
Maintenance Helper
Laborer
Painter
Storekeeper
Custodian
Chemist
Laboratory Technician
Total Staff Complement
Estimated Number of Personnel
2
4
1
7
.5
3
5
.5
1
10
.5
4
6
1
1
12.5
1
4
6
1
1
.5
1
2
1.5
18
1
1
5
9
2
1
1
2
3
2
27
1
1
1
1
8
12
1
1
2
2
1
1
3
4
2
41
1
1
2
1
2
11
14
1
1
2
2
1
1
4
5
1
3
53
1
1
2
1
3
12
17
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
4
6
.5
1
1
3
64.5
1
1
3
1
3
15
19
2
1
3
2
2
2
1
5
7
1
1
1
.5
3
74.5
1
1
4
1
5
17
25
2
1
3
3
2
2
2
6
8
1
1
1
1
3
90
Note: Plant components included in this example (no. 9) are:
Liquid Treatment
Raw wastewater pumping
Preliminary treatment
Primary sedimentation
Aeration
Final sedimentation
Recirculation pumping
Chlorination
Sludge Treatment
Primary sludge pumping
Sludge holding tanks
Vacuum filtration
Incineration
Other Plant Components
Yardwork
Laboratory
Administration and general
FIGURE 7.15-
Staff Complements for Wastewater
Treatment Plants
-------
TABLE 7-2
Cost Component
Staffing Requirements by Occupational Title
Component Parameter
Estimated Annual Payroll
Man-Hour Requirements
Raw waste-water pumping
Preliminary treatment
Sedimentation -- primary
Trickling filters
Aeration -- diffused air system
Aeration -- mechanical aerators
Sedimentation -- secondary
Recirculation or intermediate pumping
Chlorination
Primary sludge pumping
Sludge holding tanks
Sludge digestion
Sludge drying beds
Sludge lagoons
Vacuum filtration -- sludge to landfill
Vacuum filtration -- sludge to incinerator
Centrifugation
Incineration
Yardwork
Laboratory
Administration and general
Operation Maintenance Total
mgd firm pumping capacity
mgd average plant flow
1,000 square feet surface area
1, 000 square feet filter surface area
1,000 cfm firm blower capacity
horsepower total installed capacity
1, 000 square feet surface area
mgd firm pumping capacity
tons per year chlorine use
gpm firm pumping capacity
1, 000 cubic feet sludge volume
1,000 cubic feet sludge volume
tons per year dry solids applied
tons per year dry solids applied
tons per year dry solids applied
tons per year dry solids filtered
tons per year dry solids applied
tons per year dry solids incinerated
mgd plant average day capacity
mgd plant average day capacity
mgd plant average day capacity
Total estimated annual payroll man-hour requirements
-------
7-30
TABLE 7-3
Estimated Plant Staffing Complement
Estimated Annual Suggested
Payroll Requirements Staffing
Number of Number of
Staff Position Man-Hours Employees3- Employees
Administration and general:
Superintendent 1
Assistant superintendent
Clerk-typist
Storekeeper
Subtotal 2,100D 1.0
Operation labor:
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman ___^___
Operator II 4
Operator I 6
Automotive equipment
operator
Subtotal 20,200 9.7
Maintenance labor:
Maintenance supervisor
Mechanical maintenance
foreman
Maintenance mechanic II 1
Maintenance mechanic I 1
Electrician II -_5_
Electrician I
Painter
Maintenance helper 1
Laborer 2
Custodian ,
Subtotal 11,750 5.7
Laboratory:
Chemist
Laboratory technician , 1.5
Subtotal 3,600U 1.7
Total labor requirements 37,650 18.1 18
^Man-hours divided by 2,080 hours per year.
Operation man-hours only.
^All operation man-hours except "administration and general."
All maintenance man-hours.
-------
7-31
table, one can obtain the payroll man-hour requirements for the
major categories of "administration and general," "operation labor,"
"maintenance labor," and "laboratory" from the labor requirement
summary in Table 7-2. The total number of full-time employees re-
quired may be estimated by dividing total payroll man-hours by
2,080, the number of hours in the normal payroll year. When the
approximate number of employees has been determined in each major
category, the suggested staffing can be developed on a judgmental
basis.
Other factors requiring consideration in developing a suggested
staff complement include the fact that for each position which must
be filled 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, it is necessary to have
almost five employees on the payroll. Also, during certain inter-
mittent operations, such as vacuum filtration and incineration, an
above-average number of employees must be on duty.
The suggested staffing could include part-time personnel if
local circumstances so indicate. This would most likely be the case
at smaller plants and would be dependent upon availability of part-
time employees.
Table 7-3 illustrates the use of the estimated annual payroll
requirement data in developing a suggested plant staff complement.
CERTIFICATION REQUIREMENTS
In some government activities, workers may be required to be
"certified." Certification requirements which appropriately reflect
job demands should be used as a planning guide in determining train-
ing needs. The task list should be used extensively in developing
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statewide certu ication requirements ana training courses. Each
class or training period snould be designed with appropriate task
requirements ana ena periormance objectives deiined. Completion
01 training phases shouia oe followed by rigorous, yet realistic
examinations. rroper training of plant personnel regarding how to
perform operating and maintenance tasks, the impact of improper
tasK performance, ana the ability to "troubleshoot" problems as
tney occur ana to taKe proper corrective action are 01 the utmost
importance. For a small lacility depenaent upon a relatively small
numoer of people, the training factor is crucial. As an aia to the
small facility, it is important that:
1. Statewide certification standards be provided to assure
that adequate capability and knowledge levels are maintained
2. Regional training courses in all phases of facility opera-
tion be continually made available
3. A competent professional staff be available through state
agencies, private organizations, or other governmental
units which can readily provide troubleshooting assistance,
emergency relief, and perhaps aid as a "clearinghouse" in
locating and placing qualified people in operating positions
at small facilities
4. Attention to be given to wages scales and compensation plans
to small plant personnel to encourage competent individuals
to take the responsibility of plant operations
Figure 7-16 incorporates the planning tools, certification require-
ments (A), staffing guide (B), and occupation definition (C) into the
~ one £;>tuai moa.-:._ .
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Wastewater
Treatment
Facilities
(2)
System
Effectiveness
(1
Job
Performed
(15)
Management
Decision
(19)
Pay, Motivation,
Working Conditions,
Supervision
Other
(17)
Actual
Worker
Abilities
(12)
Job
Description
(10)
Job
Specification
(9)
Time
Required
(5)
Training
Needs
(13)
Job
Assignment
A
(6)
Job
Demands
(8)
Training
Activities
(14)
Certification
Requirements
A
Staffing
Guide
B
Occupational
Definition
C
FIGURE 7.16. Incorporation of Planning Tools into the Conceptual Model
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SUMMARY
The variability of operations in the public sector requires
that each organization develop, for those positions within that
organization, job descriptions and staffing guides relevant to
specific job assignments. Only then can the appropriate job spec-
ifications be determined and written and proper selection, training,
and certification be performed.
The techniques obtained by this chapter and the occupational
definitions and qualifications profile can be used as guides to
help develop job descriptions as well as staffing guides and train-
ing program certification requirements applicable to the specific
positions within an organization. The analysis of the work being
performed currently and consideration of future work requirements
is a part of "system analysis" and the manager's responsibility.
While the manpower planner may not actually engage in this full
kind of analysis, to develop job descriptions, staffing guides,
certification requirements and training programs in an orderly way,
some form of human engineering will probably be required. However,
the manpower planner must be aware that while such a process may be
required, in the presence of an interested labor force, and espe-
cially a union, unilateral establishment of standards, and such are
probably not feasible. Workers will probably insist on making an
input and will insist that existing workers not be negatively
affected by such.
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7-35
SELECTED REFERENCES
Ewing, David W. , Writing for Results, New York: Wiley Interscience
Publications, 1974.
Machiavelli, Niccolo, The Prince, New York: E. P. Button & Co.,
Inc., 1928.
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PUBLIC SECTOR UNIONISM
Two additional related institutions affecting manpower planning
in the public sector are labor unions and the concomitant collective
bargaining. With some four million of the fourteen million public
service emplovees organized, a manpower planner who fails to under-
stand these two institutions and take them into account in his or
her planning is bound to run into difficulties. They have, and will
increasingly have, a material effect on planning the involvement of
human resources in the public sector.
LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
Labor unions began in the early 1800s , evolving from the guilds
that had for centuries controlled the relationship of producer to
consumer. As workshops grew in size, becoming less and less personal,
the gulf between the owner of physical capital and the owner of human
capital (workers) increased. Factories were being organized, com-
peting successfully with the age-old crafts and threatening craft-
workers with the extinction of their hard-earned, historical, sig-
nificant, social, and economic status. Workers organized unions of
working people in self-protection. Their attempts were met by
employer and legal resistance, being treated under the common law
as "criminal conspiracies."
The threats to craftworkers were so great that they continued
to organize unions and to deal collectively with employers in spite
of the legal and extra-legal hamstrings. In the United States, by
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1842, the "criminal conspiracy" legal doctrine began to break down,
unions increasingly being recognized as legal entities. However,
new legal techniques were developed, especially in the United States,
to limit the unions in the exercise of their power -- court-made
law rather than legislation governing labor union activity.
As the industrial revolution proceeded, a new brand of unionism
began to develop. Whereas the earlier unionism had been based on
skilled crafts or trades — such as carpenters, typographers, tin-
smiths, iron moulders, and so on, the new unionism was industrial
in nature, all workers in a plant or industry, regardless of the
nature of their work, being organized into a single union. The
miners and eventually the textile workers led the way in this brand
of unionism. Their power lay not in the monopoly and membership
restrictions, typical of the craft unions, but in their numbers.
However, as with their craft union brothers, industrial workers,
too, were met by legal restrictions.
Workers also were met by resistant employers who used the
blacklist and the power to hire and fire their workers to discourage
union activity. The workers in turn became well enough organized
that they could call effective strikes, pickets, and boycotts. The
ensuing confrontation of workers and employers, each engaged in a
"holy and constitutional" cause, frequently erupted in violence.
State militias were called out and private detectives hired to
protect property with orders to shoot to kill; on the other hand,
workers, seeing the "property rights" of their jobs threatened,
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8-3
sometimes destroyed the physical capital they had been using and
used violence against the hated strikebreakers or "scabs."
While there were earlier developments leading toward a more
peaceful form of industrial and labor relations, it was a change
in legal attitude in the 1930s, along with economic recovery, that
produced the capacity of the private sector to resolve industrial
conflict in a relatively peaceful way.
Preceded by other legislation leading the way, in 1936 the
Wagner or National Labor Relations Act was passed. With it, workers
in the private sector were guaranteed the right to select or reject
a union of their choice and to bargain with their employers. Employers
were not too happy about the one-sided new law. Legal amendments and
additions were made to the law, which also protected employers' and
consumers' rights — as found in the Taft-Hartley Act of 19^7 — and
protected union members' rights in their relationships with their
unions — as seen in the Landrum-Griffin Act of 1959 — but the guar-
antee of the right to bargain collectively remained. While neither
employers nor unions may be completely happy with the current state
of the law, there are no great groundswells in the private sector to
change the law.
BEGINNING OF COLLECTIVE BARGAINING
It was the mutual recognition by the law and the industrial
parties of the rights of each other — namely the right of management
to manage and the right of workers to participate in decisions most
directly affecting them — that established and made effective
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collective bargaining, taking the place of destructive confrontation.
Collective bargaining consists of the action of the collective agent
of the workers (the union) and the collective agent of owners (the
management) sitting down in mutual respect for the rights of each
other for the purpose of negotiating a contract or constitution, de-
lineating the terms of employment and the rights and responsibilities
of both parties. It also involves the inevitable negotiations over
the meaning and administration of that contract.
While parties bargaining in good faith may hope for a peaceful
resolution of differences, they also recognize that such is not
always possible. Owners may place excessive demands on management.
Workers may make impossible demands on the union leaders. The status
of the economy or the nature of the competition — either from busi-
ness or union competitors -- may make settlements difficult if not
impossible. Impasses are bound to occur at times, even between
parties that previously negotiated in a spirit of good will. When
these impasses occur, the workers have the legally protected right,
at least in the private sector, to strike, picket, and boycott. These
are not absolute rights, legal limitations having been placed on their
application. On the other hand, employers have the legal right to
continue to operate. The exercise of this right, especially if new
workers are brought in (as contrasted with using management personnel),
comes into conflict with what the workers still consider as their
right, that of returning to their jobs. It is this conflict of legal
and perceived rights that is the most frequent cause of what little
violence remains today in labor relations.
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Internal Conflict
While labor unions were "winning their spurs" in collective
bargaining, they did not achieve it as one big, happy family. There .
have been severe strains within the union movement itself, often with
as much conflict as with public officials and employers.
In the early iSOOs, unionization meant the formation of locals,
with the workers of a given craft in a given location organizing a
union. In the 1830s and '40s these locals organized city and state
federations to give themselves political power in dealing with the
legal establishment frequently controlled by employer interests.
With the expansion of the product markets, workers found themselves
in destructive competition with workers from other parts of the
country. In response they organized national craft unions of
carpenters, painters, typographers, and so forth. Later in the
century, industrial workers began to organize nationally. The
attempt of the Knights of Labor in the 1870s and '80s to unite all
workers into a common, overarching national federation was abortive,
the conflict of philosophies and needs between the skilled and un-
skilled workers being too great. In 1886, the American Federation
of Labor was formed, with the craft unions in control, placing
limitations and restrictions upon the organization of workers into
industrial-type unions.
The industrial workers resented the attitude of the craft union
leaders controlling the AFL, attempts being made to change the AFL
philosophy internally. Some of them also established another over-
arching, single union — the Industrial Workers of the World — in
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the early 1900s. This was also a revolutionary union dedicated to
destroying capitalism. Its economic effectiveness was destroyed
when its leaders were imprisoned, executed, escaped to Russia, or
went underground at the end of World'War I, resulting in its demise.
Industrial unionism, as a viable force, was reborn In the mid-
19303 when a substantial number of leaders of industrial unions
that had maintained an uncomfortable relationship within the APL
rebelled, forming what became the Congress of Industrial Organiza-
tions. While it contained some revolutionists, basically it accepted
the American economic system. The burgeoning new mass-production
industries seemed to demand union organization along industrial
rather than craft lines, and while the APL did not "lie down and
die," much of its membership was lost, and it no longer was the
single voice of labor.
It was the shock of the Taft-Hartley Act of 1947, the right
to work movement of the early 1950s, and the leveling off of union
membership in that decade that shocked many leaders of the AFL and
the CIO into a recognition of the need for amalgamation. In 1955
the AFL and CIO began the difficult, often uncomfortable task of
creating a singular voice for workers. While the AFL-CIO remains
the single most powerful voice for labor, the "house of labor"
continues somewhat divided, with several of the most powerful national
unions, including the mine workers, the automobile workers, and the
teamsters, remaining outside the AFL-CIO — the first by choice and
the others by expulsion.
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8-7
The amalgamation did not resolve many of the problems facing
American unions. It was unable to develop sufficient support to
repeal the Taft-Hartley Act, nor could it prevent the passage of
the Landrum-Griffin Act. While the right to work tide was stemmed,
it was not reversed. The amalgamation has not been able to produce
a return to the expanding days of the 1930s and '40s in which union
membership boomed. For the union movement as a whole, membership
figures have become stagnant.
A New Industrial Age
With the 1950s and carrying into the 1970s, a new economic age
seemed to arrive and with it the changes in the labor movement
already mentioned. Through World War II, the production of goods,
taking place in easily organized factories and shops and construction
sites, dominated the American economy.' With the end of the extremely
heavy demands on goods production of World War II and the goods ful-
filling years up to the Korean War, American production turned to a
different form. While the American consumers continued their heavy
demand for goods, it was a growth that had slowed down. In the con-
tinued, relatively prosperous years of the 1950s and '60s, the
American consumer turned to increased services. The service-producing
sector became dominant in the 1950s.
It was perhaps this economic change more than any other that
produced the stagnation in union membership. While many service
industries themselves are heavily unionized — transportation and
communication being but two examples — the service and the white-
collar occupations had historically remained weakly organized by
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unions, if organized at all. It was a new breed of worker and new
institutional forms that faced the old-line union leaders. Many
of the white-collar and service occupations were more closely tied
to management than to blue-collar, unionized workers. Harder to
organize, women were concentrated in many of the service occupa-
tions. Traditional union leaders seemed incapable of meeting the
new challenges.
Rise of Public Service Labor Unions
Government workers have been involved in this change. Most
government workers are in the service-producing sector, albeit it
is the production of government services. They, like their private
sector counterparts, have been reticent to organize — with notable
exceptions of such groups as the postal workers who have been well
organized for many years. Despite their historical reluctance and
lack of protective legislation, government workers along with the
private sector service occupations have begun to organize. In fact
it Is among the service workers, both private and public, that union-
ism is finding its principal organizing successes in the 1970s. And
just as it is the state and local government units that are growing
most in relation to federal agencies, so it is that it is among state
and local government workers that the greatest growth in unionism
is taking place. It is because of this growth that micromanpower
planners in the public sector must take special cognizance of the
labor movement and collective bargaining.
Gone are the days when public managers could ignore the voice
of the workers. Heard less and less Is the old argument that for
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8-9
government officials to sign labor contracts was an abrogation of
sovereignty. The federal government has finally recognized collec-
tive bargaining, and most states now have laws or attorney general
opinions recognizing collective bargaining at least for some state
employees.
Unionization in the public sector began at the federal level.
In 1912, the Lloyd-La Follette Act gave federal employees the right
to become affiliated with those worker organizations which did not
require them to strike. Federal workers were given the specific
right to petition Congress. Under this legislation, Government
Printing Office employees and crafts in defense facilities formed
unions. (Postal workers had organized craft-oriented postal unions
in the nineteenth century.) The industrial-type National Federation
of Federal Employees and American Federation of Government Employees,
AFL-CIO, were organized. While these unions could petition and deal
with Congress, they were barely tolerated by government officials.
In the late 1950s and early '60s, the pressures began to build
up within the federal establishment for a formal recognition of the
collective bargaining rights of federal employees. Until that time
department heads were relatively free to resist efforts of federal
workers to organize or to deal with them in any formal way. Govern-
ment workers were given none of the organizing and bargaining protec-
tions and guarantees of the Wagner Act and other federal legislation.
With the rising pressures, and with some ideological commit-
ment, in 1962 President Kennedy issued the landmark Executive
Order 10988 which formalized several types of relationships between
labor unions and the federal agencies. However, the decentralization
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and fragmentation characteristic of federal labor relations under
this order cuased much difficulty and uncertainty. Consequently
in 1969, President Nixon issued Executive Order 11491 providing only
exclusive recognition, when a majority of the workers in a bargaining
unit supported a union. In addition, agency heads are no longer free
to make final decisions as to what constitutes a bargaining unit,
which union is to be the bargaining agent for the workers, and what
are unfair labor practices. The Assistant Secretary of Labor Manage-
ment Relations in the Labor Department makes these decisions, with
appeal to a federal labor relations council possible. In addition,
a federal arbitration body, the Federal Service Impasses Panel, is
empowered to resolve conflicts between managements and unions.
In 1971> Executive Order 11491 was amended by Executive Order
Il6l6 providing for limited negotiation by unionized workers during
working hours, not allowed under the previous order. It also allows
for nonbinding arbitration of grievances.
Under this legal encouragement and the economic and philosoph-
ical changes taking place, unionization of federal employees has
proceeded at a rapid rate. In 1963, postal unions had over 625,000
members, representing about 85 percent of that work force. Other
federal employees organized, increasing membership to 1,600,000 in
1971 and representing about a third of the non-postal federal labor
union force. The principal union of federal employees is the
American Federation of Government Employees. In I960 the member-
ship of this union was 70,300. By 1970 it had increased to 337,900
and now represents well over 530,000 federal employees. This is an
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8-11
Industrial-type union, with workers of many crafts, skills, and
occupations as members of a single union in locals throughout the
country. Other major unions of federal employees in order of size
are the American Postal Workers Union, the National Association of
Letter Carriers, the National Federation of Federal Employees, and
the National Association of Government Employees.
A number of primarily private sector, craft-type unions have
organized workers in closely related given occupations. For example,
the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers
have contractual relations with a number of federal installations,
as do the Oil, Chemical, and Atomic Workers. As of 197^, almost
half of the federal employees were organized into unions, although
about a third of the 3,600 locals had been unable to secure bargain-
ing agreements with the cognizant federal agencies. Within the
AFL-CIO, some 22 national unions are involved in the organization
of public employees.
Not only have federal employees organized in unprecedented
numbers, they have on occasion defied the law and taboos by engaging
in strike activity. Shortly after the issuance of Executive Order
11491 in 1969 (effective January 1, 1970) some two hundred thousand
postal workers struck, the first major strike of federal employees
in the nation's history. While the military was brought in to try
to move the mails, the strike was successful. In exchange for a
union agreement to support postal reorganization, postal workers
received the largest pay increase ever granted. And the government
agreed not to prosecute or retaliate against strikers or their leaders
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5-12
This strike was followed by a "sick-in" of federal air traffic con-
trollers, which met with less success but nevertheless demonstrated
the potential for strike action on the part of federal employees.
What produced this immense increase in militancy on the part
of federal public employees during the 1960s and '70s? While the
AFL-CIO and its affiliated unions may be given some of the credit
because of their increased and improved organizing efforts, the real
reason lay with the economic changes and the government workers them-
selves. The latter were no longer content to see private sector
workers alone increasing their bargaining power, resulting in
relatively greater increases in benefits than government workers.
The managers of nonunionized or weakly organized government employees
had not learned from the nonunionized private sector that to remain
nonunionized required competition with these unions in the provision
of benefits at least equal to those of unionized areas. Another
reason for the huge increase in public sector unionization is part
of a changing attitude toward government. People in general have
lost much of the awe, if not the respect, for government and are
less and less reticent about challenging previously "sacred cows."
They have therefore become insistent upon equitability of treatment.
Failing to get it short of union activity, they have taken what
appeared to them to be the only conceivable recourse.
In addition, inflation has taken its toll. Persons on fixed
incomes may be happy to remain in that status in times of price
stability or decline if they have relatively secure jobs. But in
times of inflation, job security does not seem so important as
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meeting the increased cost of living. Government workers, whose
incomes have historically been relatively fixed, in the inflation
of the 1960s and '70s have been willing to risk job security for
increased compensation and fringe benefits, as well as a more
effective voice in establishing working conditions.
UNION ORGANIZATION AT THE STATE AND LOCAL LEVELS
Encouraged by the success of federal employees, state, county,
and city workers, as well as schoolteachers, have been engaging in-
creasingly in collective action. The American Federation of State,
County, and Municipal Employees is the dominant industrial-type
union at their levels of government, having grown from 210,000 mem-
bers in I960 to over 460,000 members in 1972. The Wall Street Journal
asserted on August 6, 197^ that membership of the Federation was seven
hundred thousand. In addition, numerous other unions and union-type
organizations exist. For example, the American Federation of Teachers,
with 205,300 members in 1970 (up from 56,200 in I960), is associated
with the AFL-CIO, while the National Education Association, with
approximately a million members, as it saw the membership encroach-
ments of the American Federation of Teachers and as its members
increased their pressure, became more and more militant. Its na-
tional leaders now recognize it as a union, but independent of the
AFL-CIO.
The International Association of Firefighters has more than
150,000 members. The nurses in public hospitals are increasingly
organized in various forms. Sanitation workers have their unions,
especially in larger metropolitan areas, as do water works employees.
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8-14
A number of these public service worker unions are associated to-
gether, at the national and state levels, in the Coalition of
American Public Employees. In addition, in some states many public
employees belong to employee associations not associated with the
AFL-CIO but with many of the functions of labor unions. As time
moves on, these — like the education associations -- may virtually
become labor unions. Even police officer associations are becoming
more and more vocal in their demands and acting more and more like
labor unions.
At the local level, most organization has taken place among
city rather than county workers. Of the municipalities with ten
thousand or more people, about two-thirds of the employees are
represented by unions. As might be expected, the large cities in
the highly organized Northeast are the most heavily organized. But
the greatest rates of growth are in the smaller cities and in the
South. Only about half of the counties have some unionization
among their employees. This is to be expected because of the less
concentrated nature of county employees.
Just as the federal government has responded through executive
orders to the demands of workers for collective bargaining, state
governments, with less alacrity, have likewise responded, but their
response is through legislation. As of 1972, only seventeen states
had enacted comprehensive laws governing in some way the organiza-
tion of state and local employees. In eleven states, public em-
ployers were actually required to bargain collectively with their
workers, while in two others, they are given permission to do so.
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8-15
In four states, public jurisdictions are required to at least meet
and confer with duly assigned representatives of their workers.
Workers especially designated for collective bargaining by state law
are: firemen, teachers, police officers, hospital workers, trans-
portation workers, university employees, public utility workers,
and nurses. Only four states legally permitted strikes, and only
for selected groups and only after full effort had been made to re-
solve the dispute.
So many employees at the state and local level have become
unionized that they, too, are beginning to exercise the right to
strike. In the constitutions of most unions and associations deal-
ing exclusively with government employees, this right was originally
denied. But these provisions are being removed from the constitu-
tions, and while state laws still generally do not recognize the
right to strike, increasingly state and local government workers
perceive it as their constitutional right as citizens, maintaining
that they do not give up the rights of citizenship just because
they work for a government agency. And the interesting thing is
that generally speaking when they defy the law, going on strike,
they essentially get away with it. Especially is this true when
large numbers of worker-strikers are involved in an essential
service.
While in 1958 there were only fifteen work stoppages of public
employees, involving 1,720 workers in a loss of 7,510 man-days, in
1968 there were 251 work stoppages involving state and local govern-
ment workers in a loss of two and a half million man-days. The
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5-16
biggest strike in the history of the nursing profession, in San
Francisco in 197^, ended successfully for them. Teachers now strike
so frequently that it is no longer novel.
It would appear that the historical position in the United
States, differing from that of many other advanced nations including
Canada, which says that government workers have no right to strike
is no longer viable. The old reliance of government officials on
the unavailability of the strike weapon to their workers no longer
has credence. Unless this trend is reversed, they will have to
recognize the strike as the ultimate weapon of public employees.
This development will materially weaken the officials' bargaining
power in dealing with their employees.
Another distinction between the collective bargaining of the
private sector and that of much of the public sector has been the
idea that while workers may organize they cannot bargain with
management over wages. This concept is based upon the presumption
that management itself has no power over its budget and therefore
none over wages, that power remaining with the electorate and its
elected representatives who control the purse strings. How long
this resistence to wage negotiating will hold out against continued
demands of workers is not obvious. Increasingly, public workers
seem to be defying this taboo, and in many cases they are successful
While it may be true that public administrators do not ulti-
mately control the purse strings, the workers realize that there is
usually some budgetary flexibility and that "Peter can be robbed to
pay Paul." They also know that public administrators make up the
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budgets that are presented to legislative bodies and that if worker
pressure on wages is strong enough, administrators will adjust their
budget requests, even to the point of making supplementary requisi-
tions to diminish conflict and the threat of work stoppages.
Stenberg of the Advisory Committee on Intergovernmental
Relations has summarized the forces moving state and local workers
into greater militancy:
1. The inability of individual workers to be heard in a large
bureaucracy
2. Growing sentiment among lower level government workers
that concerted action is necessary to achieve results
3. Greater application of effective private sector collective
bargaining techniques
4. Awareness of union leaders that the public service is a
relatively untapped source for organizing success
5- Availability of financial resources and expertise of
national unions
6. Aggressiveness of public employee unions, including con-
servative associations to become more militant
7- Spillover effect of federal executive orders
8. The resistence of many public officials
To this list might be added continued inflation which has
severely undercut the purchasing power of the already relatively
low pay of many state and local government employees.
Carl W. Stenberg, "Labor Management Relations in State and
Local Government," Public Administration Review (March/April 1972).
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A MODEL PUBLIC SECTOR BILL
The Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations in
1969 recommended a model bill covering labor-management relations
at the state and local levels. This bill would provide that manage-
ment officials be required to "meet and confer in good faith" with
representatives of the workers. It also provided for:
1. Authorization for workers to form, join, and participate
in union activity, as well as to refrain from such activity
2. Permission for supervisors to form their own associations
but without the recognition privileges provided for workers
3. Establishment of a public employee relations agency with
the responsibility of determining among other things the
bargaining unit, recognition of a union, dispute settlement,
prohibition of strikes, designation of management rights,
determination of unfair practices, writing of memoranda
of agreement on issues permitted by law, fixing standards
of conduct
Both the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal
Employees and the National Education Association opposed this pro-
posed bill, calling for a stronger law to mandate collective bargain-
ing for public workers at all levels, with a national commission to
determine questions of representation and to handle disputes. The
commission would provide for mediation and fact finding by an inde-
pendent agency, as well as written agreement of terms and conditions
of work. It would also reduce, although in differing ways, the
restrictions against strikes and provide for exclusive bargaining
by the recognized union.
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The Collective Bargaining Process
The first step in the collective bargaining process is the
determination of the collective bargaining unit — the unit in which
an election will be held to determine whether the workers want a
union and if so, which one will represent them. In the private sec-
tor, where the National Labor Relations Board is involved, it makes
the initial determination; although once it is made, the negotiating
parties make the decision, expanding or contracting the unit by col-
lective bargaining. In the federal establishment, the Assistant
Secretary of Labor for Labor Management Relations now makes the
determination. The size and composition of the unit can have a
material effect on the outcome of any representation election. At
the state and local levels, there is generally no orderly way of
making this determination; it has been the relative bargaining power
of the parties that makes the determination.
Once the bargaining unit is determined, some means must exist
for determining the will of the majority as to which, if any, union
will represent them. Unions have often insisted that the collection
of membership or signature cards of employees should be used to make
the determination. However, workers frequently can be "coerced" or
manipulated into signing a card, the significance of which they do
not really understand or with which they actually disagree, but
because of social pressure will sign. Under such conditions the
card does not truly represent their will. If the employer is given
the signature cards or petition, there is the possibility that he
or she may use them for the purpose of retaliation against the
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"rebels." An employer who may oppose unions cannot be depended on
to make the determination. A public showing of hands suffers from
the same problems. The more sure way for the will of the majority
to be determined, If that be the goal, is a "secret ballot" election
conducted by a disinterested party or body.
If the majority decides against the union, the question may
not be finally resolved, for the union or the workers desiring a
union may continue agitation, exploiting every possible situation
for the purpose of strengthening the hand of the union in the next
election. If the union wins the election, it must negotiate a con-
tract. While the law may permit or require collective bargaining,
it does not dictate the terms of the agreement. It only sets the
stage for the representatives of the workers and management to
negotiate.
If true collective bargaining takes place, each of the con-
stituencies — the workers and the management — make up their shop-
ping list of "demands." This term is frequently misunderstood.
There are those who look upon the setting forth of "demands" as an
attempt to dictate terms of agreement. Dictation only occurs when
one party or the other has the overwhelming power. Within the
context of collective bargaining the "demands" only constitute the
initial position of the respective parties. The list is usually,
although not necessarily, only the "asking" price. That is, the
party recognizes that it will undoubtedly have to "trade off" some
of its demands to reach settlement.
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The union list of demands is usually very long, as it is often
the result of attempts to placate the disparate elements within the
union. Pew people outside the union realize the internal conflicts
that exist over what the union demands should be. The union is a
primary political mechanism for resolving these conflicts before
they go public in negotiations with managements. However, frequently
conflicts are unresolvable within the union, and the decision is made
to let collective bargaining "wash out" the list. Demands may also
be used as ploys or purposely included to be bargained away in pur-
suit of some special demand.
Historically, management has let the union be the aggressor in
making demands, with management essentially insisting only on a no-
strike clause but maintaining the position that any legal management
rights not negotiated away will remain with the employer. This is
a generally accepted position. However, management may find it to
its advantage to make demands of unions beyond a "no-strike" provision
or even a management prerogative clause. Management by having its
own "shopping list" of demands will have something to bargain with,
giving it greater bargaining flexibility. An increasingly frequent
management demand is one relating to increased productivity and
related decreased costs.
Each management and each union will develop its own approach
to bargaining. In some cases, the parties are "locals." In other
cases, the union may involve regional or national union leaders
who participate either actively or in an advisory capacity. The
same holds true for the management side. Each collective bargaining
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relationship will develop its own personality, depending upon the
style and personalities of the parties involved as well as the
issues that are raised, and such extrinsic factors as the political,
social, and economic climates within which the bargaining sessions
are conducted. Whether or not there is a taxpayer's rebellion is
an important factor in determining the character of negotiating
sessions.
Another important element in determining the nature of the
negotiating sessions is the attitude of the parties toward each
other. For example, if the union representatives "feel" that
management does not look upon them as equals in the bargaining
process, they may become aggressive and even belligerent in proving
that they are equals. The same may be true if the management offi-
cials "feel" that union leaders are attempting to completely under-
mine their authority for managing the operation. Mutual acceptance
of the "rights" of the parties can help smooth collective bargaining
sessions.
Another important factor affecting the outcome of collective
bargaining is the presence or absence of negotiating experience on
the part of the collective bargaining representatives. Inexperienced,
unwary, and unknowledgeable persons may get themselves into a "box"
from which it is difficult to extricate themselves. This deficiency
is a special problem in the public sector where there is a shortage
of collective bargaining experience.
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The Resolution of Conflict
Mutual acceptance does not guarantee agreement. Agreement
may not be possible under the restrictions placed on the negotiators.
When this happens the negotiators can go back to their principals
and either request greater flexibility or a new position, or an im-
passe results. When parties cannot agree, there must be some means
of resolution. While federal and most state laws outlaw strikes, as
already shown, public workers are increasingly resorting to the use
of this weapon. To avoid strikes requires more than a law outlawing
them. There must be some viable alternative. There is some feeling
that strikes are becoming more prevalent because of the absence in
most jurisdictions of a rational means of resolving conflict short
of confrontation.
There are three generally accepted aids for resolving conflicts
short of a work stoppage or punishing strikers or their leaders,
which action may only exacerbate the problems. These three aids
are:
1. Mediation — If mediation is used, a mutually respected,
experienced, impartial third party is brought in to assist,
not to dicate terms. The mediator can frequently help
interpret the positions of the parties. He or she may
be able to help in keeping tempers under control. Sug-
gestions may be made. There are no fine rules for
successful mediation -- except impartiality, tact, and
nondecision making by the mediator. It is an art requiring
great skill and experience and Is mostly used in negotiating
contracts.
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2. Fact finding — If fact finding is to be successful, the
fact finders, at least as a body, must be impartial.
Otherwise they will only augment the problems. If par-
tial to one side or the other, their "facts" will carry
little weight to the aggrieved party. A fact finding
body may be used to make its findings known to a legis-
lative body or higher authorities. Or the body may be
required to make its findings known only to disputing
parties. The greatest effectiveness probably comes in
making its findings public. Although some may disagree,
both management and unions must take into consideration
public opinion. Without popular support, neither party
can long survive. A "public be damned" philosophy will
not work for long in this day and age.
3. Arbitration — In arbitration a third party is brought in
for the purpose of determining the facts and then render-
ing a binding decision. In the private sector this is
true. In the case of the federal government, an arbitra-
tor's decision can be overturned by higher government
authority, arbitration awards only being advisory,
although as a matter of practice probably few are so
limited. It is probably true because most arbitration is
over the interpretation and administration of a contract
already negotiated and agreed to. The arbitrator is
therefore not going to be "ploughing a lot of new ground"
or placing heavy unanticipated burdens on the public purse,
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Arbitration may be either voluntary or compulsory.
If voluntary, the parties agree on both the arbitrator
and the issues. They agree to accept the decision of the
arbitrator except as subject to the review already dis-
cussed. The parties may not be happy with the decision
but they generally learn to live with it. When one or
the other of the parties has pushed a question to arbitra-
tion only because it couldn't solve an internal problem,
the arbitrator can serve as a "whipping boy" blamed for
a "stupid" decision about which nothing can be done.
Compulsory arbitration is being increasingly promoted
for use in the case of essential services, including those
of government. If the effects of a work stoppage would
endanger public health or safety, it may be the most
effective technique for minimizing problems. However,
it is no panacea, for it raises the same questions as the
use of the strike because ultimately the strike is the
question. While public management is not politically
free to cut off essential services through a lockout,
workers cannot be stopped from striking. They may be
punished for striking or encouraging a strike, but they
cannot be coerced into working. It may be possible to
coerce them into showing up for work -- although ev<>n
that is becoming increasingly difficult — but If the
provocation is great enough, they can find ways to
"sabotage" the job, Increasing costs more than a settlement.
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Where services are nonessential, some maintain it may be well
to allow a strike to take place because strikes are not costless to
either party, even in the public sector. Certainly it costs the
workers, who are going without pay. The longer its duration, the
greater the pressure for settlement from wives, children, the public,
and creditors. Public officials, too, are put under some pressure —
although not so much as where there are essential services. Polit-
ical pressures build up for settlement. However, in an age of
"taxpayer rebellions," the public may well be willing to resist
"excessive" demands by unions in order to "teach workers a lesson."
In a summary of his suggestions for the resolution of conflict
p
in collective bargaining in the public sector, Van Asselt, of the
New England Municipal Center, concludes that:
1. Direct bilateral negotiations without third-party inter-
vention is the most desirable form of resolving employer-
employee differences
2. Meaningful collective bargaining in the public sector can
occur without the right to strike
3. Mediation and fact-finding hold promise as impasse solu-
tion techniques for public sector disputes
4. Compulsory arbitration is receiving a serious trial, and
an objective evaluation of the experience with it is
essential in the effort to avoid strikes
If compulsory arbitration is to be effective, the two parties must
have the mutual right to select the arbitrators.
Karl A. Van Asselt, "Impasse Resolution," Public Administra-
tion Review (March/April 1972).
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UNION SECURITY' AND UNION DUES
One of the more significant areas of conflict, at least poten-
tial conflict, between public administrators and labor unions is
over the questions of union security. Historically, the security
of labor unions in the United States has been so tenuous, due largely
to employer resistance, that unions have felt the need to demand con-
tract provisions requiring some form of union security. There are
several kinds of union security which have been negotiated over the
years:
1. Closed shops — The most restrictive form of union security,
the closed shop agreement requires that all employees join
the union before employment. Outlawed by the Taft-Hartley
Act and most state laws, where the employers find it to
their advantage such arrangements nevertheless persist.
Right to work states also outlaw such arrangements, probably
more effectively because of the anti-union tenor of these
states.
2. Union shops — Legalized by the Taft-Hartley Act, this
union security provision gives freedom in hiring by the
employer but requires new employees to join within a given
period of time. Those states with right to work laws gen-
erally also outlaw this form of union security.
3. Maintalnence of membership — Also legal under Taft-Hartley
but outlawed in most right to work states, under this the
least restrictive union security provision employers may
hire whom they wish, with no requirement for joining the
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union either before or after employment. However, to
provide some security to the union, should an employee
join the union, he or she may be required to maintain
union membership in good standing for the duration of the
contract, at which time there may be an exit. Developed
in the United States during World War II as a compromise
form of union security, this arrangement has proved
relatively unstable in tenure. It, too, is outlawed in
right to work states.
4. Agency shop — An agency shop is one in which there is
no requirement to join the recognized union but employees
are required to pay a regular fee to the union for the
collective bargaining services received, usually equiv-
alent to the union dues. This form of union security is
legal under the Taft-Hartley Act, yet illegal under most
state right to work legislation.
5. Open shop — The open shop provides for no negotiated union
security, the only security being what the union can obtain
through its continued organizing activity. In theory, the
employee is free either to join or not to join, to remain
or not to remain in the union. However, where an employer
is dedicated to the elimination of the union, the power
usually exists to do so under this arrangement.
6. Dues check-off — Associated with the question of union
security is the union dues check-off. Compulsory check-offs
are outlawed by national law, but "voluntary" check-offs, in
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which employees under varying degrees of "voluntariness"
sign a card authorizing the employer to deduct dues from
paychecks and forward the money to the union, are allowed.
This greatly enhances the dues collection records and
strengthens the unions.
Generally speaking, government agencies have not had to struggle
too hard with this issue. It would seem that because of its nature,
once government makes the decision to recognize unions and engage in
collective bargaining, the former have little to fear by way of either
overt or covert action to weaken and destroy them. Especially is
this true if there is a "watchdog" agency to guarantee worker rights.
The principal remaining argument from the union point of view
for union security is the "free rider" one. Under the national labor
law, when a union obtains recognition as the exclusive bargaining
agent for the employees in a given jurisdiction, it must represent
all workers in that jurisdication, whether they are union members or
not. All benefits won by the union must be extended to all employees,
and in grievance disputes the union must represent equally nonunion
as well as union members. The unions usually maintain that all per-
sons in the bargaining unit should at least pay "their fair share"
of the cost of maintaining the union which represents them.
Unfortunately for the resolution of the problem, two moralities
are in conflict. From the union point of view, it is immoral for one
to receive services for which he or she has not paid a fair share.
From the anti-unionist point of view, it is immoral to require a
person to join an organization he or she may in principle oppose,
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and it is likewise immoral to require payment for private services
he or she may not want or need. The most popular union answer to
these two objectives is that the agency shop does not require member-
ship. In fact this form of security frequently exists where there
are substantial numbers of persons whose religion prohibits them
from becoming members of any organization outside their church,
including unions. And to the latter argument, the union reply is
that when it is recognized as the bargaining agent for a group of
workers, it essentially becomes a quasi-government and should have
the limited power to tax by way of dues or fees.
Unfortunately there is no easy answer to this dilemma. One can
argue that the government cannot require membership in a fraternal,
religious, or political group and therefore should not require member-
ship in a labor union. However, required membership in an economic
group is not uncommon — doctors and lawyers may be required to belong
to professional organizations, as might architects, nurses, and
engineers. The answer might be that these are professional organi-
zations. Certainly with the resort to collective bargaining by such
professional organizations as the National Education Association, the
American Association of University Professors, and nurses' associations,
the distinction between professional organizations and labor unions has
become blurred. Then, too, unions are no longer primarily fraternal
or political but essentially are economic institutions as well.
The Effect of Unionization on Micromanpower Planning
The steadily increasing unionization of public service workers
will increasingly affect the efforts of the micromanpower planner in
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the public sector. Another power source in addition to line manage-
ment must be taken into consideration as plans are made to recruit,
train, transfer, and sever employees.
Consideration of Worker Wishes
The wishes of workers, as formally expressed through union or
employee association representatives, must be given serious considera-
tion. In fact, even in the absence of formal organizations, the
possibility of such must be taken into account in all that manpower
planners do. This consideration can take two basically different
forms. The first would maintain the power to initiate policy in the
hands of management, with worker representatives maintaining the right
to challenge. The second would establish the right of workers to be
consulted through their representatives in the formulation and imple-
mentation of policy. The first form maintains the initiative with
management and if effectively done could ease and shorten the plan-
ning process. The success depends on how well planners can guage
worker and union leader reaction. Excessive challenging of manage-
ment initiatives could cause a breakdown in the system, resulting in
greater delays in implementing policy changes than if in the short
run the more time-consuming consultation with worker representatives
is used. Which form of consideration the management will opt for
should be the subject of intense internal consideration. It is to
be expected that most worker organizations will likely demand
consultation although there may be exceptions, and in the initial
stages of unionization, with inexperienced worker negotiators, it
may not even be a consideration. Management may opt for the first
but be willing to negotiate over the second.
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Unionization is neither an unmixed blessing nor an unmitigated
curse. For example, those manpower planners whose agencies are in-
volved in developing or extending certification as a means of improv-
ing the quality of service will probably find a useful ally in labor
unions, although union leaders may insist on participation in such
programs. Most craft-type unions have insisted on maintaining high
qualifications for membership. This dignifies the occupation. It
also restricts the supply of workers, making possible higher wage
demands. It may also make possible increased productivity which
will give management the wherewithal to grant increased wages with-
out increased per unit costs.
The Seniority Issue
On the other side of the coin, where unions exist, the freedom
of management to transfer, promote, and lay off or dismiss workers
is usually limited. Manpower planners would usually prefer to base
such personnel actions on merit. While line management might as a
stated policy agree, they usually demand the unilateral power to
make the decisions as to merit. This has frequently meant favoritism
in personnel action, something workers and their unions, as well as
civil service regulations, have historically been opposed to. The
union answer to this problem in most industrial-type situations has
been seniority. That is, where the workers are attached to a given
employer for most of their worklife, personal security becomes
extremely important. Promotions, layoffs, and transfers, If made
on the basis of seniority, enhances that security. It usually takes
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the form of allowing the senior worker to bid first on a transfer
or promotion possibility. If found qualified, he or she would get
the bid on job. Layoffs, because of a force reduction, distinguished
from a dismissal for cause, would be on the basis the junior worker,
or last one hired, being laid off first, with rehiring being in
reverse order, the senior men being rehired first.
The union would retain the right to challenge any management
action which would be in defiance of this principle. In some con-
tracts, super seniority is provided certain key workers who are
essential to production and for whom there is likely no substitute
available. In return for such management-requested super seniority,
the union usually insists on similar status for key union officers.
Where seniority systems are in place, the greatest difficulty is in
the subjective decision as to qualification. In practice there are
varying degrees of participation of union representatives in making
that judgment. In most cases, management would maintain the right
to make a unilateral decision, with the union maintaining the right
to challenge the judgment through the grievance procedure which
would obviate work stoppages over such questions.
Where a seniority system is put into place, it probably becomes
especially important to develop rationalized paths to promotion and
lifetime careers -- namely career ladders. Without rational, care-
fully conceived career ladders with wide worker acceptance and
preparation, productivity can be negatively affected by seniority
promotions. If logically consistent career ladders are developed
and accepted, and if senior workers are prepared for the next step
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up, or a lateral transfer, the ends of both efficient management
and worker satisfaction can probably be maintained. Union repre-
sentatives, if close to workers, can be useful barometers of worker
feelings. The participation of such leaders in the development of
career ladders can therefore assist in obtaining worker acceptance.
On the other hand, if career ladders are developed in defiance of
worker wishes, they may well be a source of continuous conflict.
Career ladders based on seniority can also provide a rational
basis for layoffs in reduction of the work force. Each position in
the ladder has someone above it who has served in that capacity and
knows the job. Therefore that person is prepared, with minimum
reorientation, to step down and fill the lower level job, minimizing
the negative effect on productivity.
The principle of seniority in layoffs, while widely accepted,
is being seriously questioned, especially during periods of widespread
production cutbacks found in business recessions. Because of efforts
to overcome past practices of racial and sex discrimination, the
junior employees are disproportionately female and racial minorities.
Therefore in layoff periods, those laid off are disproportionately
members of the groups previously discriminated against. Therefore
layoff by seniority results in de facto discrimination — even though
unintended. Increasingly these injured groups are challenging in the
courts the practice of layoff by seniority. Where seniority is
departmental, rather than plantwide or companywide, they are
increasingly successful in these challenges.
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Frequently the company and the union will sign a consent de-
cree in which they agree to change the seniority system to a plant-
wide or companywide basis — without going through the usual procedure
of democratic determination of contract demands. The result is in-
ternal union strife as workers, protected under departmental seniority,
lose that protection to workers from outside the department or plant.
Where career ladders are based on promotion within a department, they
will probably be seriously affected by this new type of challenge.
Certainly it is a question manpower planners must take into consideration.
The principle of departmental seniority is also being challenged
as the basis for promotion. Many unions have sought to put seniority
on a plantwide or companywide basis, with management usually prefer-
ring to keep it on a departmental basis because of the greater
efficiency involved. Departmental seniority has frequently resulted
in discrimination in the past when certain groups of workers were
relegated to certain departments or career ladders with limited
opportunities for advancement. By having seniority on a plantwide
basis, workers can more easily shift from dead end or undesirable
areas into areas of greater opportunity.
The shift from departmental to plantwide or companywide seniority
makes the development of career ladders much more complicated where
seniority is used. Promotion on the basis of merit, if true merit,
may be the means of resolving some of these problems. There will be
two problems: one is convincing workers and their union leaders that
true merit is actually being used; the other will be that certain
racial groups have still not achieved de facto equality of education
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and training opportunities and may still maintain that they are
discriminated against in a promotion system based on merit.
Other Issues
While consultation and seniority may be important issues, union
concerns do not end there. Space will not allow an extensive treat-
ment of these issues, but manpower planners must be aware that
workers are beginning to insist on the right to be heard on those
issues which affect their well-being. Some of the more important of
these issues afflicting manpower planning are:
1. Wages -- Workers insist that the level of wages and the
nature of the wage system itself are negotiable. Public
administrators as well as the law historically maintained
that wages of public workers were not negotiable. The
theory was that budgets were the domain of legislative
bodies not administrative officers. However, this theory
is collapsing under the onslaught of militant public
workers. With this interest, union leaders may be allies
in appeals to legislative bodies on budgetary problems.
2. Safety — Workers are insisting on safe working conditions.
The old philosophy that workers accepted the dangers of a
job when they hired in is falling by the wayside. Workers
are being aided by such federal legislation as the Occupa-
tional Safety and Health Act and the federal agency charged
with its enforcement. They often also insist on contractual
provisions covering the subject. Challenges to safety
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conditions can be handled through the grievance procedure.
Management will usually find an ally in labor leaders in
insisting on observance of safety regulations.
3- Grievance procedures — As a quid pro quo for giving up
the right to strike during the lifetime of a contract,
unionized workers generally insist on a formal grievance
procedure providing them with an effective and protected
form in which to have their complaints heard dispassionately
by representatives of the management and the union, with
arbitration as the usual last step. Where such a procedure
is in place, personnel actions will be subject to intense
scrutiny by both management and union officials and must
therefore be supportable by recorded facts and data,
requiring a reporting and recording system. Such pro-
cedures are invaluable aids in the identification of man-
power problems and the maintenance of consistent personnel
practices by line management.
4. Increased productivity — While unions are frequently looked
upon as having negative effects on productivity, this is not
necessarily true. Union leaders can be used as allies in
increasing productivity if they are assured that workers
will receive their "fair share" and will not be hurt by
such increases. Most union leaders will recognize that
increased productivity, while at the same time protecting
workers, will reward them for their cooperation in putting
such improvements into place.
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Respect workers and their representatives — Workers and
their representatives have come to demand respect — if
not voluntarily by management, then by the pressure of
economic sanctions and demonstrated competence in negotia-
tion. Lack of evident respect can frequently result in
increased and nonproductive strife.
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PART II
A MANPOWER PLANNING SYSTEM
"I do not think planning is an easy
and simple matter. Planning is possibly
one of the most ambitious things society
can undertake . . . one cannot expect
instant success."
— Wasily Leontieff
"Challenge," 1974
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PLANNING: A REVIEW OF THE THEORY
In this chapter we review some of the principles of "planning."
Our review is based upon material gathered from the literature deal-
ing with national economic planning, city planning, and corporate
financial and marketing planning. From the experiences in these dif-
ferent areas some observers have attempted to fashion a theory of
planning. This is to be distinguished from theory In. planning. The
theory of planning deals with processes associated with the form of
planning, while theory in planning deals with the construction of
principles upon which the content of a plan is based. The theory of
planning Is thus concerned with such matters as to what the objectives
of a plan may be and how they are to be ranked, while theory in plan-
ning is concerned with the manner In which a particular objective
can be achieved. It would be an egregious error, however, to com-
pletely separate the domain of the theory p_f and the theory in planning
The boundaries between them are often fuzzy. We shall make no con-
sistent attempt to keep them separate.
The premise on which this chapter Is based is that manpower
planning may be considered as a specific application of planning theory
to manpower Issues. We would feel much more assured of this assertion
If planning theory were well developed. It is not. There seems to
be no acceptable body of planning theory. There are no laws or uni-
versally accepted principles of planning. For this reason our task
will be more difficult and our results less satisfying. Some common-
alities In the approach of different theories of planning do exist,
9-1
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and it is such commonalities that give value to the type of review
and applications we make in this and subsequent chapters.
WHAT IS PLANNING?
The word "planning" conjures up a variety of impressions —
to some it implies socialism and the demise of free enterprise, to
others a comprehensive or master plan used by local governments in
determining land use, and to others the financial planning of corpora-
tions. Whatever the impression, the commonality of these impressions
is related to the art (or science) or framework for making decisions.
(By decision, we simply mean the selection among several alternatives
that must precede any action.) Furthermore, planning, we feel, is
somehow related to the future. At one level of abstraction the ex-
pression "plan for the future" is redundant since planning implies
futurity — we do not plan for the past and we cannot plan and execute
the details of a plan for the present. To plan always implies futurity
To plan implies the necessity of choosing, and choosing requires
the existence of alternatives. If a situation occurred that allowed
for no alternative courses of action or reaction in consequence of
it, there would be no basis for choice in response to it. Planning
would be superfluous and that which passed for planning would be an
illusion.
Alternative Definitions of "Planning"
Davidoff and Reiner (1962) define planning as a "process for
determining appropriate future action through a sequence of choices."
The word "determining" is used in two senses: "finding out" and
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"assuring." Thus planning includes aspects of obtaining information
and controlling certain processes. Planning also involves, in this
view, the establishing of appropriate ends, goals, or objectives.
The use of the word "appropriate" implies that some criteria for
judging among alternative actions must be incorporated within the
planning process. Heindensfield (1969), has succinctly termed plan-
ning as "a blueprint of activity," while Faludi (1973), borrowing
from the literature on systems analysis, defines planning as "the
application of scientific method — however crude — to policy making.'
For Faludi a planning agency involes advisers who supply "scientific
intelligence" and decision makers who act on the basis of the informa-
tion. Faludi seems to say that the total activities of "planning"
are separated into the activities performed by two distinct groups —
the advisers who supply information and the decision makers who act
upon the information.
A slight variation of the preceding analysis is given by
Banfield (1959) when he says "Planning is a process by which (the
planner) selects a course of action [a set of means] for the attain-
ment of his ends." It is good planning if these means are likely to
attain the ends or maximize the chances of their attainment. It Is
by the process "of rational choice that the best adaptation of means
to ends is likely to be achieved." We quote from Banfield's defini-
tion primarily because he specifically introduces the terms "ends"
and "means" and "rational choice." We shall consider these terms in
more depth because of the frequency of their occurrence in the plan-
ning literature.
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Planning: Ends and Means
Planning Is the preparation of action directed toward the
attainment of a given end or ends. Examples of some typical ends
that are stated in terms of calls to action or commands are "maximize
profits," "increase general welfare," "increase highway safety," or
"improve efficiency of wastewater treatment plants." Such ends are
often vague and nonoperational. What action is required to achieve
them is not obvious or self-evident. This may be corrected by making
the statement on ends a more direct guide to action by delineating
a series of activities that must be undertaken in order that the end
be achieved. Thus to increase highway safety, for example, excessive
speeds might be eliminated, and to eliminate excessive speeds, it
might be determined that more traffic officers are required in some
known or determinable numbers. This procedure results in a series,
or hierarchy, of ends and means. Alternatively, an "ultimate" ob-
jective of the planning unit is achieved by introducing subobjectives,
each of which is achieved in a given step of the planning process.
Each step is used as an end in itself, and is considered as a means
in achieving some higher or more ultimate goal.
Multiple ends or objectives are to be distinguished from
hierarchical ends. Multiple ends are normally to be achieved simul-
taneously, and although they need not have equal weight, they will
be at the same level in a given hi&j, archy. Multiple ends may be con-
sistent or inconsistent with each other. The multiple ends of having
more economic growth and more income equality, for example, are con-
sidered to be inconsistent by some because many policies adopted to
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promote income equality have detrimental effects upon economic growth.
Highway safety and increased speed or decreased travel time is another
example of possibly inconsistent ends. An example of possibly con-
sistent ends would be increased economic growth and the reduction of
unemployment or decrease in vacancy rate and fewer turnovers. Even
when multiple ends are consistent, certain policies may serve one
end more efficiently than another.
Whenever multiple ends exist some trade-off among them and
among the means for achieving them will exist. How such trade-offs
are to be evaluated is not entirely a technical matter but contains
elements of value judgments as reflected in the preferences of those
for whom the planning is being done. For these reasons it is neces-
sary to distinguish between fact and value in decision making —
between positive and normative statements. A factual or postive
statement is a statement about the observable world. A factual state-
ment can, in principle, be tested to determine its validity. Such
statements describe "what is." A normative statement is a statement
about "what ought to be." It is a statement which includes an ethical
or value judgment concerning a desirable state of affairs. The ends
or objectives of planning are often determined on the basis of norma-
tive principles, although they may be tempered by positive principles.
That is, what should be achieved should be influenced by what can be
achieved.
Planning and Rational Choice
A rational decision is said to have been made when the decision
maker lists all of the opportunities for action open to him or her,
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identifies all of the consequences of each possible action, and
selects the action which would be followed by the preferred set of
consequences. Simon (1955) argues that most models of rational be-
havior require some or all of the following elements: (1) a set of
behavior alternatives, (2) a set of consequences, and (3) information
concerning the probability that certain of the consequences will occur,
These elements of rational choice may be more succinctly expressed
as the efficient (i.e., the attainment of maximum values with limited
means [Simon, 1957J) attainment of given ends or, as Dahl and Linblom
(1953) have said "an action is rational to the extent that it is
'correctly' designed to maximize goal achievement, given the goal
in question and the real world as it exists."
We would wish only to adjust the preceding definitions by ex-
plicitly acknowledging the role of information in rational action
and decision making and the need to define efficiency in more detail.
By efficient, we mean maximizing objectives (or benefits therefrom)
attainable with a given cost (effort) or achieving given objectives
at minimum cost or effort. An action is rational, therefore, if it
leads to an efficient method for achieving certain ends, given the
information available. Obtaining information is not costless, and
as we shall see, it will often be "rational" to make decisions on
what is acknowledged to be incomplete information because the costs
of obtaining more information are not thought to be equal to the
expected benefits of obtaining it.
For someone "to plan rationally" or "to make a rational plan"
implies the making of efficient choices in seeking given ends.
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Alternatively, the statements could be defined as the use of the most
efficient "means" in attaining given "ends." Insofar as efficiency
is measurable, one plan may be "more rational" than another if it
were more efficient. To be more efficient may mean attaining the
stated ends with the use of fewer resources, including time, or achiev-
ing more ends with a given allocation of resources. Finally, an
efficient or rational plan is one where the benefits of the plan are
greater than the costs.
Subsumed within these notions of "rational planning" is a
framework based upon the notion of a preference or objective function.
Obtaining the greatest value (i.e., optimizing) for this objective
function is the principal end of all planning efforts. The existence
of a preference or objective function acknowled es that the planning
agent, whether it be an individual or an organization, has preferences
which act as stimulants to behavior. Furthermore, it is assumed that
the planning agent is able to order these preferences and state that
he or she prefers one set of objectives to another. The domain over
which these preferences may be exercised will in general be constrained
or limited by technological, economic, and institutional considerations,
The rote application of the principles of rational choice, as
reviewed above, would place great demands upon the planning agent's
ability to obtain, digest, and use information. The planner, in this
view, must ascertain all possible alternatives and their consequences,
rank them according to some preference structure, and choose the most
appropriate combination suggested by this structure and allowed by
the relevant constraints. The impracticality of executing such
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computations under many circumstances has led to some adjustments
in the notion of rationality in decision making. One important ad-
justment has been the replacement of the concept of "optimizing"
with what has been called "satisficing" (although some individuals
argue that no such replacement was necessary). "Optimization" was
taken to imply a complete search over all alternatives and their
consequences while "satisficing" implies that the search continues
until some predetermined value or condition is attained.
Satisficing may also be related to the predetermination of
acceptable conditions .in a slightly different manner. Within an
organization a subdivision may be given a restricted set of prefer-
ences and alternatives that allows the planner a limited range over
which his or her search procedures are to be conducted. These re-
stricted preference sets may have been the result of either optimiz-
ing or satisficing at some higher level in the organization. The
subdivision planner may be expected to optimize or satisfice depend-
ing upon the expected range of alternatives and the available resources
The impact of the satisficing concept is that it attempts to take
direct account of the limited resources available to the planner,
and also the limited ability of human agents to engage in certain
types of exhaustive search and decision-making processes.
Reasons for Planning
The objections to planning, alluded to at the beginning of this
chapter, most often occur when planning is undertaken by political
bodies. Summarizing alternative reactions to "planning," Galloway
(1941) has written:
See Appendix A.
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The word "planning" has been widely and loosely
used. It has meant different things to different
people. To crusaders it has been a Holy Grail lead-
ing to the sunlit hills of a better day. To con-
servatives it has been a red flag of regimentation
heralding the dawn of collectivism and the twilight
of the old order of free private enterprise and the
democratic way of life. But to the humble practi-
tioners of the art, viewing the matter with the cold
eye of engineering rationality and a matter-of-fact
indifference either to crusades, Red hunts, the class
struggle, or the omnipotent state, it has been merely
a process of coordination, a technique of adapting
means to ends, a method of bridging the gap between
fact-finding and policy-making. Planning is the
opposite of improvising. In simple terms it is
organized foresight plus corrective hindsight.
Pew individuals deny the need for some government planning.
They differ about the degree of planning and about the areas over
which planning is to be exercised. Many objections to planning oc-
cur because "planning" is identified with "control" in the sense of
a loss of freedom. Although certain definitions of planning exclude
control, others assume that the power to implement the plan (i.e.,
to have control) is an integral part of the planning process. Our
position is that a plan does not have to include control to be a good
plan -- although knowledge of its efficacy does require its imple-
mentation! However, a plan that is not acted upon may, through the
interpretation of subsequent events, be judged a possibly superior
plan to the one enacted. Such a view of planning accepts Faludi's
dichotomy between adviser and decision maker. There is also a sug-
gestion in this that the power to implement does not reside with the
planner. A possibly more appropriate term for what the "planner"
does is the development of an "information system." We shall say
more on this subject subsequently.
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The most common arguments used In favor of national economic
or social planning are: (1) the presumed undesirable consequences
of a free market system, and (2) the increased interdependence of
modern society. It is important to emphasize, however, that in eco-
nomic affairs the existence of a well-functioning market system does
not imply the absence of planning. It is usually taken to mean the
absence of "significant" or overall government planning — "sig-
nificant" being a subjective and relative term. Government planning
and interference in the market mechanism are advocated by individuals
who see shortcomings in the market-determined allocations of eco-
nomic rewards. Such shortcomings may be reflected in the presence
of monopolies, existing distribution of money incomes, distribution
of pollution damages, levels of and distribution of unemployment,
or availability of educational opportunities.
The second major reason offered for planning, the increased
interdependency of modern society, is a phenomenon that has occurred
most rapidly during the last several decades. In the nineteenth
century people were more (economically) self-sufficient and isolated,
and events occurring in one part of the economy did not have serious
repercussions elsewhere. As society became more industrialized and
as specialization of economic functions occurred, activity in one
part of the economy had repercussions throughout all of the economy.
Under such conditions, it has been argued, equity and efficiency
demand that planning and control in some degree greater than existed
in preindustrial societies is required. Planning in this context
usually takes the form of monetary and fiscal policy aimed at
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mitigating the effects of inflation, recession, and unemployment.
It may also contain more detailed planning to meet capital and man-
power needs.
We shall not discuss further the pros and cons of planning
other than to offer a brief statement of our own position on the
matter. Our position is a moderate one: Planning is both useful
and necessary, but it should be conducted with full awareness of
certain forces at work in society. Planning should work with and
take into consideration those characteristics of the economic and
political systems in which the planning occurs.
TYPES OP PLANNING
Planning may be classified in many ways; we shall consider
but a few of them. At the most elementary level we might classify
planning as formal or informal. If planning is "organized reactions
to expected future events," everyone engages in some form of planning.
Formal planning is that planning which is purposely engaged in when
certain actions are coordinated toward the attaining of a given set
of objectives. Informal planning is planning that occurs in reaction
to stimulus and no attempt is made to set up an internally consistent
program for action. This dichotomy might also be classified as planned
decision making (i.e., formal planning) vs opportunistic decision
making (i.e., informal planning).
Planning may be classified as to its scope. Thus planning may
be comprehensive or partial. Within a given organization a series of
ultimate objectives may exist. That planning which attempts to set
forth a course of action to achieve all of these objectives would be
comprehensive planning, whereas planning designed only to achieve a
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subset of these objectives would be partial planning. Such a di-
chotomy in planning might be useful within an organization that has
several divisions, or could be so arranged into divisions. Each
division would engage in planning (suboptimization or satisficing)
relevant to its immediate objectives. This would be partial planning
in the sense that the division management would not have to directly
consider those ends for which other divisions are responsible. Over-
all planning functions in such an institution would establish compre-
hensive organizational objectives and attempt to orchestrate the
various activities of each division.
Planning may be strategic or tactical. Strategic planning is
the process through which an organization decides upon its objectives.
Tactical planning is concerned about the steps necessary to achieve
such objectives.
Planning may be educative or coercive. Educative planning con-
centrates on clarifying the fundamental issues confronting the or-
ganization and suggesting objectives and methods of achieving them,
while coercive planning enforces a particular set of objectives and
methods for achieving them. Educative planning may be characterized
as planning without control; coercive planning is planning with control.
The planning process may be public or private. Private plan-
ning is not only by and for private individuals but also by and for
private organizations such as corporations and trade associations.
Public planning is planning by governmental bodies. The ends of private
planning are generally more easily determined than those of public
planning. Within the private sector the institution doing the planning
is usually, although not always, a voluntary organization of individuals
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gathered together for some common interest. Thus a corporation is
organized to maximize profits by selling a particular product, while
one such as the League of Women Voters is a nonprofit, voluntary
entity organized to achieve greater and more informed voter partici-
pation in community affairs.
Planning and the Future
We have suggested previously that "to plan" implies some rela-
tionship between the present and the future. A classification of
planning that emphasizes its time dimension is long-range and short-
range planning. Such a classification deals with the length of time
for which plans are made, although such definitions do not always
specify the number of years that differentiate between long- and
short-range planning horizons. Although designations of long-range
planning as being five or ten years and short-range as being one or
two years may be useful points of reference within an organization,
they should not be binding concepts that put a constraint upon plan-
ning activity. The time span over which present decisions have effect
upon future conditions varies according to the type of decisions and
of course the nature of the organization doing the planning.
The differentiation between long- and short-range planning
is more appropriately based upon such matters as the ability of the
organization to adjust fully or partially to the implications of its
present decisions. Long-range planning would then refer to those
decisions that affect conditions at such time in the future that the
organization can make all of the necessary adjustments to take advan-
tage of the decisions, while short-range planning acknowledges that
the time period is so short that certain characteristics of the
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organization cannot be changed. Alternatively, we might view short-
range planning as that planning which operates under more constraints
than does long-range planning. With this notion gradations of time
between short- and long-range planning can exist. Such gradations
could be based upon the number of operative constraints upon the
organization's behavior.
It is also important to emphasize a point made by Drucker (1973)
that "long-range planning does not deal with future decisions; it
deals with the futurity of present decisions." The question facing
an organization is not so much what it should decide to do tomorrow,
but rather what it should do today to; (1) affect certain things
tomorrow, and (2) be prepared for the uncertainties of tomorrow.
Planning thus involves asking the question of what futurity should
be present in current activities in order to make good decisions today
Since planning involves choice among several alternative courses
of action to achieve some desired end, some "forecast" or estimate
of future conditions and results is necessary. The planner must es-
timate or forecast the probable effect of implementing his or her
plan. This effect will be determined in part by the future environ-
ment in which the implementation will be made. We therefore conclude
that forecasting is essential, although we emphasize that estimates
of future conditions are not held with certainty, but are probablistic,
PLANNING PROCESS
The planning process is a continuous one. Present decisions
should be made in a systematic fashion with as much knowledge of their
futurity as resources permit, organizing systematically the efforts
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to carry out these decisions, and measuring the results of these
decisions against their expected results through organized and sys-
tematic feedback mechanisms. Such a scheme may be divided into a
series of smaller processes. We cite some examples of these divisions.
Drucker, for example, divides the planning process into eight
essential elements: there must be objectives — an elusive and even
metaphysical term but one that exists, whether implicitly or ex-
plicitly, in any decision-making process. There must be some assump-
tions about the environment in which decisions are to be made and
effectuated. There must be expectations as to likely or attainable
future conditions. There must be alternative courses of action, based
in part upon different assumptions and expectations about the environ-
ment and future conditions. There must be decisions. There must be
a structure of decisions, since there is not such a thing as an iso-
lated decision but rather a chain of decision making. There must be
an impact stage, since every decision must lead to action and this
action will have impact upon the organization. There must be results
which are the intended and unintended effects of the decisions.
Banfield's (1959) division of planning into several processes
follows a slightly different route, although many similarities between
his and Drucker's methods exist. Banfield divides his process into
four areas: The planner must make an analysis of the situation by
determining all alternative courses of action that would achieve de-
sired ends, must reduce and elaborate the ends into operational terms
and design courses of action to achieve the ends, and must evaluate
and compare the consequences of alternative actions.
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Planning and Information
In order to plan successfully, certain Information is required.
At a minimum, information on the appropriate ends of planning and
alternative ways of achieving such ends is needed. This requirement
in turn suggests that information must be obtained about the rela-
tionship among those variables within the planning environment that
may contribute to the efficient achievement of stated ends. Thus
it is necessary, for example, to know if a decrease in certain taxes
will contribute to economic growth and income equality before taxes
would be planned for in the achievement of growth and equality. (This
is to imply that there must be some theory in planning.) In order
to have such information, it must be possible to measure these rela-
tionships. Continuing with our example — it would be necessary to
measure the size of the tax change, the effects upon economic growth,
and the effects upon income equality. All of this of course assumes
that taxes, growth, and equality are definable and measurable terms.
Finally, it should be noted that this information should be storable
and retrievable if it is to be continuously used.
What we have in effect described in the previous paragraph are
the rudiments of what is often called an information system <— a
system that denotes those characteristics that are to be measured,
measures them in some prescribed way, and has the capacity to store
and retrieve the information.
Good planning incorporates facts and theories about the appro-
priate environment in which the planning operates. It is from knowl-
edge of the past and existing theories about the present and future
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that a guide as to what information should be gathered is obtained.
Thus (returning to our example of growth and equality) past experi-
ences with growth may provide information on the effects that the
tax change has in the past. This experience, plus extant growth
theories, provides some notion of what is expected to occur in the
future.
As existing decisions often look to the past for pertinent in-
formation — thus relying upon past measurements and storage — so
the planning process itself must look to its own past for its improve-
ment. Planning is a learning process and for many organizations is
engaged in continuously. A history of planning information and re-
sults is possible if a system is established for storing such material.
This information system would include measurements of how successful
past planning has been, and with appropriate identification of those
reasons for failure, poor performance could be identified and in
principle eliminated. Such monitoring requires a theory of planning
as a guide to the appropriate information to obtain as well as an
ordering of such information.
Management and Planning
Our previous reference to the problem of whether the planning
function appropriately contains the power necessary to effect or
control the plan is part of a much larger issue. We have used the
word "planning" in the title of this book in keeping with traditional
usage, although we feel that traditional usage of "manpower planning"
is often more appropriately referred to as "manpower management,"given
many existing definitions of "management." Having said this, however,
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we wish to weaken our statement somewhat because of existing ambi-
guities in the term "management." As Wadia (1966) has observed;
A study of the history of management thought
shows that a variety of disciplines have contrib-
uted to the ever increasing knowledge of manage-
ment. Engineers, economists, physical scientists,
mathematicians, behavioral scientists, soldiers,
politicians, professors, practitioners, and priests
have all played a role in the development of ad-
ministration, both as a science and as an art.
Perhaps it is this varied genesis that has led to
the development of various schools of thought in
management. This variety, in turn, has led scholars,
especially in the past decade, to engage in a
controversy over which school of thought has the
right approach to management, what the proper scheme
of classification is, and what would be included in
and what excluded from the study of the nature and
scope of management.
Perhaps similar things can be said of manpower planning. What follows
does, however, seem to be consistent with many alternative "theories"
of management.
Five commonly acknowledged functions of management are planning,
organizing, motivating, innovating, and controlling. These functions
do not occur sequentially, however, but are commonly viewed as being
interrelated as illustrated in Figure 9.1. Because of such inter-
relationships, what some may classify as planning others may classify
differently. At one level planning may be viewed simply as listing
alternative ways of getting from the present position to some desi-
rable future position. At another level of conception, planning would
be involved in determining where the current position is (a measure-
ment problem) and what the future position should be — a problem not
only of values and strategic planning but also of determining attain-
ability. These last observations are not unrelated to problems
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Planning
Organizing
Motivating
Controlling
Innovating
FIGURE 9.1. Interrelationship of Management Functions
surrounding positive and normative decisions. What "ought to be"
is, at the practical level, affected by "what can be" or what is
attainable.
Because of the nature of the manpower planning process in many
areas of the public sector, we shall often be forced to leave the
narrower confines of planning theory — at least as some practitioners
may define the function — to some considerations of the broader con-
cept of management or administration. Our rationalization for doing
so can be based upon two observations: (1) what occurs within the
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planning function will often depend upon the content of the other
functional areas of management, and some of these areas will be the
responsibility of a different agency or even a different level of
government from that assigned the planning function per se, and
(2) the charge given an agency may be referred to as planning, but
in the details of the charge what is being proposed is most appro-
priately referred to as a management or administrative process.
In partial support of the observations in the preceding para-
graphs, while at the same time communicating what we feel are impor-
tant notions about planning and management, we conclude this section
by referring to one attempt to develop a general theory of adminis-
tration. Litchfield (1956), in response to the controversies over
what management is, attempted to set out certain propositions that
he felt any theory of administration or management should include.
This theory was stated in the form of major and minor propositions.
His first major proposition was:
The administrative process is a cycle of action
which includes the following specific activities:
(a) decision making, (b) programming, (c) communicating,
(d) controlling, and (e) reappraising.
Commenting further upon this proposition, Litchfield emphasized that
these activities, and the cycle in which they occur, provide the
mechanisms by means of which all administrative functions are per-
formed. He states that the series of activities:
. . . is at once a large cycle which constitutes the
administrative process as a totality and a series of
small cycles which provide the means for the per-
formance of specific functions and subfunctions.
In an idealized form it occurs as a logical sequence
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in which there is a progression from the making of
a decision to the interpretation of the decisions
in the form of specific programs, to the communi-
cation of that programmed decision, to the estab-
lishment of controls for the realization of the
decisions, and finally to a reappraisal of the
decisions as programmed, communicated, and con-
trolled. In fact, however, the cycle often occurs
in abbreviated form. Thus the practicalities of
programming a decision may lead to immediate re-
appraisal, eliminating the steps of communication
and control. ... If individual steps are abbre-
viated or even eliminated,the cycle is nonetheless
complete. In fact, the steps probably are there,
even though in quite attenuated form.
Litchfield's first minor proposition that has particular rele-
vance for our Investigation is as follows:
Decision making may be rational, deliberative,
discretionary, purposive, or It may be irrational,
habitual, obligatory, random, or any combination
thereof. In its rational, deliberative, discretion-
ary, and purposive form it is performed by means
of the following subactivities: (a) definition of
the issue, (b) analysis of the existing situation,
(c) calculation and delineation of alternatives,
(d) deliberation, and (e) choice.
These tasks are not of course unrelated to what we have previously
identified as planning — particularly as we outlined suggested ap-
proaches to the planning process.
Planning, Programming, Budgeting,
and Control
It is useful to further delineate certain elements of which
some practitioners may wish to incorporate in an all-inclusive term
"planning" and what others may prefer to list as a separate, although
related, function. Making this delineation will also provide a for-
mat for mentioning other aspects of planning.
Some of the literature on planning theory differentiate between
planning — such as an assessment of needs, determining objectives,
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and so on, and other activities related to the achieving of stated
objectives. (To this point in our analysis, we have been guilty of
including the three functions to be mentioned below within the general
scope of planning.) Those that differentiate, in the manner sug-
gested, use the term "programming" to refer to the act of organizing
relative activities according to the objectives they are intended to
achieve or serve and presenting them in a "performance and resource
use plan" for a given number of years (Peterson, 1972). Programming
is followed logically in this scheme by the act of "budgeting," which
is the translation of the performance and use plan into more opera-
tional plans for the immediate time period. The final functional
area is that of "control" of the inputs and outputs of the entire
process. Those who wish to differentiate between "planning" as an
entire system and planning as only one section of a system usually
refer to the latter as a "management system," which of course includes
planning.
Webster defines "to control" as "to exercise directing, guiding,
and restraining power over" something. Formal discussions of control
within business enterprise build upon this basic definition. Thus
organization control is often defined as "the distribution of measures
used by an organization to elicit the performance it needs and to
check whether the quantities and qualities of such performances are
in accord with organizational specifications" (Etzioni, 1965). Ex-
tending further on this, Haberstroh (1965) has stated that "the problem
of control is that of preventing dysfunctional variation in some
aspect of the organization's behavior." This introduction of the
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term "dysfunctional" introduces the relationship or the dependency
of the term "control" upon the concepts of effectiveness and efficiency,
Planning and control can be discussed on at least two levels.
One level would recognize that all organizations have control mech-
anisms, although they may not be effective or efficient. But such
control is only over the internal operations of the organization.
The second level of discussion goes beyond a consideration of the
internal functions to the question of exercising control over exter-
nal variables that facilitate the execution of the plan. An example
of one issue between planning and control would be that of a planner
who determines that in order to reduce turnovers in employment, an
increase in wages is required and then having "control" over wages
in order to implement his or her recommendations. Normally such
functions are separated, and we shall adhere to this practice within
this book, recognizing that in certain agencies the management and
planning functions will reside in the same office or person and
hence be of relevant consideration.
There is a third and final aspect of planning and control which
is not, in our view, adequately treated in the planning literature.
We refer to the concept of "controllability," by which we mean the
degree of control that can be exercised on a given factor. An example
may clarify: Suppose that it was decided to decrease turnovers in
employment and that turnovers were caused by such factors as low
wages, poor working conditions, and absence of career ladders. Let
us further suppose that the planner only exercised direct control
over wages. Then even if knowledge about the relationship between
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wages and turnovers were exact, the planner might not be able to
reduce turnovers to the desired level because of the effect that
other and presumed uncontrollable (or uncontrolled) variables have
upon turnovers.
If the manipulation of the three factors — wages, working
conditions, and career ladders — could maintain turnovers at the
desired level, then turnovers would be controllable. If the manip-
ulation of wages alone could not maintain the desired turnover rate,
it would not be controllable from the planner's direct point of view
because of his or her limited span of control. In many cases a
particular process is not fully controllable because of the imposi-
tion of events beyond the manipulation of the effected organization.
This situation introduces probablistic elements in control and
planning.
SUMMARY
The preceding material represents a brief overview of that
which many of the leading thinkers in the area of planning, whether
public or private, have said about the planning process. In this
section we summarize this material in a manner that helps to place
our own imprint upon it. Much of what is contained in the previous
sections can be reviewed in a manner that both clarifies and ampli-
fies the material by appealing to a geometrical representation of
the planning process. Our representation requires some familiarity
with coordinate systems — a familiarity we presume our readers to
have.
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We illustrate a coordinate system in Figure 9.2 where along
the x and y axes we measure actual and desired characteristics of
an organization. Point A, with values of the two characteristics
x and y noted as x and y , denotes the actual condition or position
a a
of the organization, while point B with characteristics x, and y,
denotes the desired position. Point A is discovered through measure-
ment , while point B is determined by some process that may be ex-
ternal or, in some cases, internal to the type of planning process
under review. In commonly held concepts of management, it would
be the responsibility of some office in the organization outside
the "planning office" to present to the planners the objective
point B. In other contexts (i.e., tactical planning) the efforts
of the planning office may help determine where position B "should"
be. The position B may also represent the planner's interpretation
of the organization's objectives in quantifiable terms.
y
A
Va
t A(xa,ya)
B(xb,yb)
FIGURE 9.2. Coordinate System
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The planning process may be described as that process which
provides the necessary information for determining the path by which
an organization may (and should) move from its present position (A)
to the desired position (B). Thus planning is concerned not only
with attaining some given position but also the way in which some
position is obtained. It can also be said, in terms of the material
in Figure 9-2, that planning is concerned with proceeding along a
trajectory of intended states. In order to reach B from A, a given
path (trajectory) will be followed. Good planning will delineate
the most efficient path. Furthermore, in moving from A to B, other
configurations of x and y will be achieved. These also should be
an integral part of the plan.
The importance of time in the planning process should not be
minimized. One of the elements that constitutes a position such as
point B in Figure 9-2 is time. An organization's objective state-
ment may include a time dimension in the sense of wishing to attain
a desired position by a given date or, alternatively, within a stated
period of time. In terms of Figure 9.2 this aspect of planning may
be illustrated by measuring time along the x axis. Such a practice,
in this two-dimensional representation, would indicate that the ob-
jective was to increase the value of y from y to y, within a length
3. D
of time denoted by the line segment (x, - x ). Such an objective
D 3,
statement might be classified as including a "fixed time" objective
component. Other alternatives are available, as will become evident
below.
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We characterize another aspect of the planning process —
determining alternative ways of getting from A to B — in Figure 9-3
in which we have depicted three alternative paths from A to B. To
choose from among these paths some notion of "best" is required.
Sometimes this is a management decision, although if the manager's
criteria are given to the planner, he or she may determine the best
path(s). We may assume that each path is technically possible, but
that they differ according to such things as the cost or time of
getting from A to B. The paths may differ for a variety of other
reasons. For example, there may be a learning process involved in
whatever the planning process represents. In such cases one path
may allow all existing personnel to work on the project and remain
employed throughout; this path is noted as number 3- Such a path
may be a slower route than number 1. Though path 1 may be faster
than path 3, the staff of whatever is being planned for may have to
be increased drastically during the initial stages and reduced in
later stages. This may have undesirable consequences about which
the planner may have to make judgmental decisions unless they are
entered explicitly into the relevant objective function.
Paths 1 and 3 exhibit some other characteristics that are
possibly undesirable under certain circumstances. Along each of
these paths one objective is obtained at a different rate from the
other. Only along path 2 are both objectives attained at the same
rate (i.e., along a straight line between points A and B). In some
contexts such a situation may be undesirable, even if other paths
are less expensive, somehow measured, or faster. All of the preceding
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B
FIGURE 9-3- Alternative Paths
indicates that some criteria or objective function, possibly complex,
is needed in order to choose among alternative paths. Other complica-
tions might arise, only one of which we shall note below. It is
chosen because of its prominence in other problems upon which certain
techniques of planning have been applied.
A given organization may find itself at position A, but when
looking forward may realize that it does not so much want to achieve
an objective but would be equally satisfied with attaining one from
among a continuum of alternative positions. Such a continuum would
indicate the trade-offs the organization would be willing to accept
among specific objectives. (Sometimes this is referred to as having
a multidimensional objective function.) We illustrate such a pos-
sibility in Figure 9.4. The initial position A is a point, but the
surrogate for position B is now a continuum of alternative points
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noted by the curved line B'B'. Each point along B'B' is equally
desirable. This indicates that the planner is willing to trade,
at a rate reflected in the slope of B'B1, some of objective y for
more of objective x, or vice versa. Thus it may be that the planner
will move from A to some point along B'B' in a manner that minimizes
a cost structure or maximizes some other aspect of the planning
process not explicitly captured in this diagram. Points along B'B'
such as B-, and B2 could be alternative end points to alternative
paths that differed according to the money and time costs of the
decision.
B1
FIGURE 9.4. Continuum of Alternative Positions
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Each of these examples requires that the planner determine
where the organization is currently located with respect to those
items for which it wishes to plan. That is, it must determine where
point A is. The planner must also determine the organization's ob-
jectives and translate them into measurable terms. That is, he or
she must determine the location of a series of B points, and he must
devise programs that will enable the organization to get from A to
B — from where it is to where it wants to be.
This geometrical representation of the planning process helps
to emphasize the various tasks individual planners will have to
undertake. They will have to determine, through appropriate measure-
ment techniques, the organization's current position and that posi-
tion the organization would attain if current practices were continued.
They will have to determine what the organization's objectives are
for the present and the future and translate them into measurable
terms. Planners will then have to decide upon what measures are
necessary to attain the stated objectives. This will also involve
the elimination of existing or expected future impediments to achiev-
ing a desired position. Finally, they will have to monitor the success
the organization is experiencing in attaining its stated ends and
make whatever corrections are required to place the organization
back on its optimal trajectory.
SELECTED REFERENCES
Alexis, Marcus and Wilson, Charles Z. Organizational Decision
Making. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 196?.
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Banfield, Edward C. "Ends and Means in Planning." International
Social Science Journal, XI (3) (1959).
Beers, Stafford. Decision and Control. New York: John Wiley &
Sons, 1966.
Cowan, Peter, ed. The Future of Planning. Beverly Hills: Sage
Publications, 1973.
Dahl, Robert A. and Lindblom, Charles E. Politics, Economics,
and Welfare. New York: Harper & Row Publishers, 19 6 3 .
Davidoff, Paul and Reiner, Thomas A. "A Choice Theory of Planning."
Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 28 (1962).
Ewing, David W. , ed. Long-Range Planning for Management . New York:
Harper & Row Publishers, 1972.
Ewing, David W. Writing for Results. New York: John Wiley &
Sons,
Paludi, Andreas, ed. A Reader in Planning Theory. Oxford:
Pergamon Press, 1973-
Galloway, George B. Planning for America. New York: Holt,
Rinehart, & Winston, Inc. 1941.
Litchfield, Edward H. "Notes on a General Theory of Administration."
Administrative Science Quarterly, 1 (June 1956).
Lyden, Fremont J. and Miller, Ernest G. Planning, Programming,
Budgeting: A Systems Approach to Management. Chicago:
Markham Publishing Company, 1*972.
McLoughlin, J. Brian. Urban and Regional Planning: A Systems
Approach. New York: Frederick A. Praeger, 1969 .
Meyerson, Martin and Banfield, Edward C. Politics, Planning and
the Public Interest. Glencoe: The Free Press, 1955.
Simon, Herbert A. Administrative Behavior. New York: The Free
Press, 1957.
Wadia, Maneck S. The Nature and Scope of Management. Glenview:
Scott, Foresman and Company, 1966 . ~~
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10.
MICROMANPOWER PLANNING PROCESS:
THE INFORMAL THEORY
In chapter 9 we reviewed some of the general principles of
planning. In this chapter we direct our attention to the issue of
manpower planning.
Even though manpower planning is an "emerging" field of study
and practice, there already appears to be general agreement on the
broad outlines of what constitutes the manpower planning process. As
we have established previously, any planning function involves giving
attention to the future. Planning is undertaken to detect and, it is
hoped, avoid future problems or, to achieve some predetermined objec-
tives. Manpower planning does all of this for the specific area of
manpower. In brief, the manpower planner's function is to facilitate
the elimination of current manpower problems, to design programs and
action steps to forestall future manpower problems, and to determine
what programs are required to achieve specific manpower objectives
that are not necessarily stated in problem terms.
Our purpose In this and the next several chapters Is to build
upon these generally accepted notions. We begin by establishing the
broad outlines of our approach in an informal and intuitive manner.
In subsequent chapters we introduce more detail and develop a specific
manpower planning process.
One of the most difficult aspects of any assignment Is to begin
it. Developing and explaining the rudiments of manpower planning is no
exception. Furthermore, reasonable persons may differ on how or where to
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begin. We prefer to begin by appealing to simple and obvious principles,
gradually introducing more complex aspects of the process. We adopt
as our focus of exposition the problems confronting someone recently
hired as the manpower planner for a public agency.
THE MANPOWER PLANNING FUNCTION
WITHIN THE AGENCY
Someone newly appointed to the position of manpower planner for
a public organization will have certain questions about his or her respon-
sibilities and how these responsibilities are related to those other
administrators within the organization. (Many of these questions in all
likelihood will have been raised before employment was accepted.) Clearly
such an individual would seek answers to such questions as: By whom is
the manpower planning being done? For whom is the manpower planning being
conducted? What are the general objectives of the organization and how
do these translate into specific manpower objectives? Who determines
these objectives? What resources are available for manpower planning?
What are the organization's procedures for implementing manpower plans?
Who Does the Manpower Planning?
The first question of who does the manpower planning for the agen-
cy is not an idle one. The newly appointed manpower planner must be
aware of his or her relative postion within the organizational structure
with respect to the scope of the manpower planning responsibilities and
authority. In chapter 9 we identified planning as one element in the
managerial process and indicated that planning may be broadly or narrowly
proscribed. In large agencies with a clearly defined organizational
structure, the planning process may be one of providing information to
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others. When such conditions exist, the manpower planner functions with-
in what we have previously identified as a management information system.
Specific objectives are given to the planner by the agency chief, with
little opportunity for input or control by the planner. In other agencies
the work load may be so small, or the organizational structure less
clearly defined, that broad managerial functions are assigned to the
planner. When such is the case, the manpower planner might find himself
or herself having powers of control and implementation in addition to
those of planning.
The intention behind these observations is to indicate that al-
though in the theory of planning the act of planning might be identified
as a separate function within the managerial process, such divisions
may not always be closely or clearly defined by job description for the
manpower planner. Such descriptions may have been made by someone un-
skilled in such matters. Furthermore, within many organizations the
dimensions of a specific position are dependent upon the abilities or
personality of one who occupies it. However, we shall comment only in-
frequently on such issues .
For Whom is the Manpower Planning Done?
The manpower planner must determine for whom the planning is being
done. This includes not only the aspect of the job as discussed above
(to whom does the planner report?) but includes those individuals who are
the direct beneficiaries of the planner's efforts — the present and
future employees of the organization, the agencies, bureaus, or other
subdivisions. The organization's "customers" should also not be forgotten.
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It is not enough to accept the 'notion that all manpower planning
follows the same form and has the same general objective. There will be
some differences at the operational level, for example, between manpower
planning for the private firm (the objectives for which are derived from
the firm's desire to maximize profits) and manpower planning for the non-
profit public organization. Each of these organizational forms may call
for a different emphasis in manpower planning at the operational level,
even though the specific content of the planning techniques would be
derived from the same general principles as outlined in chapter 9- Our
immediate concern is for a specific type of man-power planning in the pub-
lic sector — a vague term upon which we need to elaborate more in con-
junction with answering for whom the manpower planning is being done.
The planner needs to understand the nature of the "planning constituency."
The manpower planner to whom we are addressing our comments will
be employed in the public sector rather than the private sector of the
economy. "Private" and "public" may be loosely differentiated by the
presence or absence of the profit motive. Though we may wish to dif-
ferentiate between public and private on the basis of ownership rather
than motives or objectives, more insight into behavior patterns, as
they affect manpower planning, will be obtained if the differentiation
is made on the basis of motives.
Planners employed with public agencies will be working within
what Niskanen (1971) has defined as a "bureau." A bureau is defined
as an organization in which:
1. The owners and employees of these organizations do not
appropriate any part of the differences between revenue
and costs as personal income
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2. Some part of the recurring revenues of the organization
derive from other than the sale of output at a per unit
rate
"In a single sentence," Niskanen says, "bureaus are nonprofit organi-
zations which are financed, at least in part, by a periodic appro-
priation or grant" as distinguished from firms who acquire funds from
the sale of goods and services. It is toward such nonprofit organiza-
tions that our principles of manpower planning are directed. There
will be some exceptions to this general rule but not of sufficient
magnitude as to deter us from taking Niskanen's definition of a bureau
and using it whenever we refer to public sector agencies,
The measure of success for manpower planning within a public
agency will differ from those of the private firm. The rewards for
success may also differ. In the private sector, where the contribu-
tion of good manpower planning to increased profits is in principle
measurable, the resources committed to planning will tend to increase
to the point where the incremental benefits of doing so are equal to
the Incremental costs. In the public sector a similar rule is appro-
priate, although more difficult to measure and therefore to effect.
It is natural to assume that nonprofit organizations replace the
profit motive with the objective of achieving some level of "output"
at minimum cost — that is, to produce a given product or provide
a given level of service as efficiently as possible. Although such
motives are undoubtedly an important ingredient in such organizations,
a motive so stated ignores the "human element" in social and organiza-
tional behavior. It ignores many of the relevant incentives and con-
straints to purposive behavior. In the private firm the returns to
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management are often directly related to the profit earned by the
firm. Such a relationship suggests a high degree of consistency be-
tween the individual's and the firm's motives. At the same time, man-
agement is constrained, not only by the relationship of cost to revenues,
but also by the action of actual or potential competitors.
In the public sector the relationship of profits to salary is non-
existent, the costs of various activities are not always adequately per-
ceived, and in many instances there is no competition. Thus the motives
of the individual may be at variance with those that guide the organiza-
tion. Consider, for example, the salary of someone employed to direct
a large municipal wastewater treatment plant. Clearly that salary is
not related to the profit of the plant, for there is none. It may be
related to the size of the plant (i.e., some surrogate for responsibility),
and incentives may be adopted to encourage the minimization of costs.
But such costs are only direct costs and do not, for example, preclude
the possibility (aside from legislation to the contrary) of emitting a
lower quality effluent to diminish direct costs while at the same time
imposing higher social costs on downbtream users of the water. Finally,
there is clearly an absence of behavior modification imposed by the
actual or potential behavior of :ompetitors.
Referring to the head of a bureau as a bureaucrat, in a non-
pejorative sense, we need to inquire as to what it is that such an
individual attempts to maximize. As with any other individual, we
suppose the bureau chief would attempt to maximize personal welfare.
It has been shown that in private profit-seeking firms, personal sat-
isfaction (welfare maximization) and profit maximization are consistent
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goals — seeking one assists in attaining the other. Niskanen argues
with considerable persuasion that budget maximization provides a sim-
ilar function in the public sector. Recognizing that several factors
may contribute to personal satisfaction — income, perquisites, public
reputation, power, patronage, and so on — Niskanen argues that most
if not all of these are positively and directly related to size of the
bureau's budget.
This is not the place to continue with a detailed review of the
literature dealing with bureaucratic motives and decision making. We
introduce this material because we think it an important area and
because it is related to our suggestion that the manpower planner come
to know in some detail for whom the manpower planning is being conducted,
The preceding material only emphasized, however, the administrative or
managerial branches of the organization. The manpower planner must go
beyond these to the operational areas. This will require that the plan-
ner come to know the characteristics of the organization's employment,
particularly as to the type and number of employees and the conditions
under which they work. The planner will need to know the sources from
which employees are obtained and the dimensions of such sources. This
will require him or her to become knowledgeable about the labor market
in which one must operate and the various services other organizations
might supply. The planner must also understand the agency's line func-
tions, its methods, procedures, and practices.
Manpower Planning at the Labor Market
We have previously noted in chapter 3 that the labor market may
be characterized in a variety of ways — each having some counterpart in
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the public sector. On the basis of geographical characterization,
we may think of manpower planning in the public sector as occurring for
areas that are coterminous with the political subdivisions of the
country. The manpower planner may be responsible for the planning with-
in one or more of these political subdivisions and for one or more
occupations. Another way of dividing the labor market might be by
functional areas such as water quality, air pollution control, police
protection, drug abuse detection, or aircraft traffic control. Some
of these areas may be combined as in "environmental control," for ex-
ample, or transportation. Further classification of functional areas
could be made according to geography. Thus we may have a state man-
power planner responsible for all occupations in water quality, or a
local or state manpower planner responsible for all occupations within
one geographical area. Cross-classifications might be organized on the
basis of expected work load, although it is doubtful that enough inter-
agency or intergovernmental cooperation will be available to accomplish
this. Furthermore, we should not expect that on the local government
level, except for large cities, it would be efficient to have a manpower
planner whose single responsibility is, for example, manpower in a local
drug abuse program.
The labor market might be classified by occupation, although this
would be efficient for only very specialized occupations with relatively
small numbers over large geographical areas. The labor market may also
be classified on the basis of the enterprise in which employment is found,
In the private sector, for example, there might be manpower planning for
an individual firm that may have more than one plant, or for an industry
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which is an organization of several firms. In the public sector, one
public agency may be responsible for several "plants" (i.e., places
of employment), while others may have only one such place. Often such
arrangements are dividied along local and county, local and state, or
state and national lines. For example, a state highway patrol has the
responsibility of providing police services throughout the state, and to
accomplish this has established several branch offices throughout the
state, plus a headquarters agency in the state capital. In such a sit-
uation, a manpower planner would have responsibility for the entire
state if the manpower planning function was organized on the basis of the
public agency. On the other hand, if the manpower planning function was
organized on the basis of the function — police protection — then such
a manpower planner might have responsibility not only for the highway
patrol but also for the police of the various local governmental units
and other police functions as might exist in such other areas as ju-
venile bureaus, drug abuse programs and airport safety.
Clearly these alternative ways of categorizing the labor market,
and indirectly the manpower planning constituency, could be extended
by further refinement and cross-classification. Each classification
has practical appeal in only a subset of what would be most reasonable
criteria for selecting the appropriate (i.e., most efficient) way of
organizing the manpower function. If the manpower planning function
was to be organized on the basis of efficiency, some planning functions
should most probably be done geographically and some occupationally.
In addition, some mechanisms through which certain information is to
be shared among planning areas would be required. We do not live in
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such a world, however, and it is therefore only reasonable to expect
that manpower planning functions will be organized in a manner that
roughly parallels existing government institutions and not on the
basis of some overall design based upon principles of efficiency.
Thus we would expect that manpower planning activities would generally
be organized on the basis of existing political subdivisions or on the
basis of existing areas of functions.
The previous conjecture implicitly contained some judgments of
facts and some assessment of the role of control and influences as
they impinge upon the planning process. It is clearly possible for
some national agency, for example, to engage in educative, as con-
trasted with authoritative, manpower planning specifically directed
toward helping some local organization. Such planning, if done well,
would be of value irrespective of who did it. What should be recog-
nized, however, is that resources devoted to planning will be wasted
unless the planning output becomes input into the agency's decision-
making processes. Thus an "appropriate" location of the planning func-
tion should take into consideration the ability of the planner to have
the results of his or her planning activities used for those purposes
for which the planning was ultimately designed to serve.
We should also include within our purview the public planning for
private employment. This is particularly important if: (1) the public
sector has responsibility for the training of those hired by the private
sector, and (2) the private and public sectors demand similarly trained
workers and those trained for employment in the public sector are
captured by the private sector — not an uncommon occurrence. This type
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of planning could be similarly divided geographically, occupationally,
or functionally, as suggested previously. It also raises some possibly
different aspects of organization motives, for it describes a situation
where a nonprofit organization is .planning "for" a profit-seeking
organization.
PLANNING OBJECTIVES:
THEIR DETERMINATION AND SATISFACTION
As a part of the "managerial team" responsible for manpower
planning, the manpower planner should know what the total managerial
objectives are, how these translate into manpower planning objectives,
and what resources are available to achieve them. Some organizational
objectives may already be expressed in terms of manpower objectives,
although much of this translation from general to manpower objectives
will be accomplished by the manpower planner.
General Objectives
In the private sector, we have identified the overall objective
of the firm as that of maximizing profits. We have purposely been
less adamant, and only suggestive, of the possible motives for the
public sector agency. In order that profits in the private sector be
at a maximine, certain conditions have to be satisfied: Prices must be
charged, wages paid, specific quantities of goods and services produced,
and specific combinations of workers and equipment employed. Prom the
overall objective of maximizing profits, therefore, other objectives
are derived. Some of these objectives refer directly, while others only
indirectly, to employment and its various characteristics. Subsidiary
objectives derived from the goal of profit maximization may encompass
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certain expectations about possible future events. Thus a firm
might expect that when they introduce a new product before their com-
petitors do, they will need to produce it at a certain rate so that
this rate will tend to diminish as their competitors bring their new
product onto the market. This changed rate of production will require
additional manpower of specified types. The manpower planner's task
would be to estimate what the needs are.
The derivation of manpower objectives in the public sector can-
not proceed from the agency's objectives in so direct and generally
acceptable manner as they are in the private sector. The equivalent
body of accepted theoretical and empirical knowledge that exists for
the private sector is not avaiable for the public sector. This is to
imply that "budget maximization," as developed by Niskanen, for example,
does not have the wide acceptance as an overall motive as does "profit
maximization" for the private sector. For this reason we do not wish to
suggest, at least so overtly, that, manpower planning objectives are or
should be derived entirely from the aspects of budget maximization. We
shall rather travel a slightly different route, keeping in mind the
possible consequences to behavior that might be suggested by the bud-
get maximization framework. Our approach to manpower planning objectives
will be one that is consistent with some of the private sector
objectives.
At the most general level, we have taken as the objective of man-
power planning the previously introduced statement that manpower planning
was intended to "ensure that the right number of people are in the right
place at the right time doing that work for which they are most econo-
mically qualified." Clearly this is so general that few could quarrel
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with it. It applies equally to public or private manpower planning.
It Is not an operational concept, however, and tends to ignore Impor-
tant aspects of planning. We might say, that the primary activities
of the manpower planner will be to see that this objective is satisfied
and that he or she will do this by the elaboration of alternative
manpower development and training plans. But all of this is rather
vacuous, and a more operational approach is required.
We noted in chapter 9 that the essence of rational choice is the
comparison and subsequent choice from among alternative means of achieving
some objective. Such a comparison should take'into account the relative
costs of alternative methods. Thus the essential elements of rational
choice may be outlined as follows:
1. There must be objectives which consist of statements of
the aims of the agency with respect to manpower.
2. There must be a determination of what alternative methods
there are for achieving the objectives.
3- There must be criteria which determine the choice of one
alternative rather than another.
The third aspect, the need for criteria, was not emphasized in our dis-
cussion of planning because it has traditionally been the case that the
act of planning ended when the costs of alternative methods of achieving
a given set of objectives had been determined. (Management was then
presumed to choose.) We have chosen a different emphasis in our approach
because: (1) the manpower planner in many cases will bring expertise
to the task of determining appropriate criterion that is absent in other
areas of the organization, and (2) the charge to the manpower planner
may include not only the objectives but also the determination of the
criterion.
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Clearly for this type of systematic analysis to be conducted,
the general objectives given to the manpower planner must be trans-
ferred into operational manpower terms. It is open to question whether
this is the manager's or the planner's responsibility. The planner
should have the expertise to translate general, often vaguely stated,
organization objectives into operational manpower objectives. Even
to use the general statement of manpower goals as a guiding principle,
some information on what constitutes "right number" and "right type"
must be determined. This is not so much a job of the manpower planner
as of those engaged in human factors engineering. Such information
can most often be provided in the form of staffing guides and job
specifications as discussed in chapter 4. Other aspects of the general
manpower planning goal are provided by the management. We have in mind
particularly the issue of time within which certain objectives are to
be achieved. For one type of problem, it is clear that the right number
and right type ought to be on hand at all times; but in some instances
when there is an unexpected and substantial change in manpower needs,
an immediate manpower response is either not possible or not appropriate,
Often a given target should be approached less than immediately.
Manpower Planning and Rational Choice
The essence of rational choice requires that we go farther than
simply defining the right type and the right numbers for which the
manpower planner must plan. There must also be, at one level of dis-
course at least, some indication of the structure of the management's
objective function. Since different paths may require different re-
sources, budgetary limitations do not always allow sufficient time or
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resources to achieve every aspect of some stated objective. The man-
power planner will therefore need information on the rate at which
trade-offs among the multiple objectives can be made. This is not easy
information for management to develop. It requires, for example, that
management be able to say in quantifiable terms that it is willing to
settle for fewer personnel if they are better trained, or more personnel
who are less trained. Thus management's objective function might im-
ply that 90 percent of the right number, where 70 percent of them have
the appropriate training, is equivalent in management's view to having
70 percent of the right number with 90 percent of them well trained.
Such a scheme requires that management have a weighting scheme
by which it ranks alternative combinations of those elements that appear
in its objective function. After some experience with manpower in the
organization, the manpower planner should develop information and certain
judgmental insights into the operation of the organization that can be
of value in helping the management determine such weights. It is not
to be expected that this will come easily, however.
In many government agencies with which we are most familiar, the
type of systematic analysis described in the previous section as being
the elements of rational choice is not followed. What is often adopted
is one of two systems: the "requirements approach" and the "priorities
approach." Each of these approaches, while appearing commendable, has
some disturbing elements connected to it.
The requirements approach is structured in the following manner:
Within an agency a particular problem is investigated, and a plan which
appears to solve the problem on the basis of need is designed. The
planned design is tested to see if it is feasible (i.e., is it possible
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to achieve some design specifications?) and so forth and if so, the
plan is adopted. The next step is to acquire the necessary budget.
What is absent from such a procudure is the explicit consideration of
the costs of alternative methods of solving the problem. The defi-
ciencies of the requirements approach can be seen by borrowing an
example from Hitch and McKean (1966):
Suppose a consumer mulls over his transportation problem
and decides, "on the basis of need alone" that he requires
a new Cadillac. It is "the best" car he knows, and besides
Jones drives one. So he buys a Cadillac, ignoring cost and
ignoring therefore the sacrifices he is making in other di-
rections by buying "the best." There are numerous alterna-
tive ways of solving the consumer's transportation problem
. . . and a little costing of alternatives prior to purchase
might have revealed that the purchase of "the best" instru-
ment is not necessarily an optimal choice. Perhaps if the
consumer had purchased a Pontiac or a secondhand Cadillac,
he would have saved enough to maintain and operate it and
take an occasional trip. Or if he had purchased a Chevro-
let he could have afforded to keep his old car and become
head of a two-car family. One of these alternatives, prop-
erly costed and computed, might have promised a far greater
amount of utility for the consumer than the purchase of a
new Cadillac "on the basis of need alone." Or the exercise
might have reassured the consumer that the new Cadillac was
indeed optimal. While expensive unit equipment is not nec-
essarily optimal, in some cases it can prove to be.
The priorities approach is one in which the agency makes a list
of what it would like to achieve and lists each in order of decreasing
priority. When such a list has been made, it is not clear from observed
practice what the decision-making rule is for expending a specific bud-
get on the priority list. Confronted with unlimited budgets, the agency
sees that there would be little problem — all items on the list could
be obtained. In the face of limited budgets (limited in the sense that
all of the priorities cannot be achieved), some choices must be made.
How much of the first-listed item should be taken? Should all of the
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budget be spent on one aspect of the manpower problem? At which point
should funds be switched from the first-ordered item to the second? At
best, the priority list method provides information regarding the order
that resources would be expended but not the relative amounts. It is not
unrelated to the weighting scheme (mentioned earlier) when multiple ob-
jectives exist. We shall have more to say on these issues in chapter 15.
Quantification
So far in our discussion the manpower planner has in effect been
doing those things that will give her or him some familiarity with the
organization in which, or for which, she or he is doing the planning.
The tasks now ahead of the planner are those that require an integration
of personal knowledge of labor economics, human factors engineering, and
training practices as discussed in chapters 2 through 8.
The types and sources of employment that the organization provides
and its specific manpower planning objectives are most usefully defined
in such terms that enable them to be quantified. We do not mean to
suggest that all characteristics of the organization can be quantified,
only that some can and should be. Which ones be quantified or, more
correctly, which ones should be investigated to see if they can be
quantified, depends upon the specific manpower planning objectives, the
nature of the labor market in which the organization operates, and the
type of occupations and employees for whom the manpower planning is being
conducted. Quantification should be sought for another broad reason --
some objectives of manpower planning will be to eliminate existing (and
expected) manpower problems, and before such problems can be eliminated,
they must of course be identified. Much of this identification will
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10-18
depend upon the planner's ability to measure (and later analyze and de-
termine the cause of and remedy for) certain employment characteristics.
All of the preceding is somewhat premature, since we are appealing
for measureability before discussing what should be measured. Manpower
problems are not always self-evident, and to state that a particular
manpower problem exists implies the existence of some framework for
determining what constitutes a problem. In addition, elements other
than solution of problems enter into the objective function. Much of
what we have discussed in chapters 2 through 8 provide the basis for
understanding the nature of manpower problems and the nature of those
other elements most likely to be included in the objective function.
A thorough understanding of that material is essential for manpower
planners who aspire to do their job well.
Clearly manpower planners are concerned about the functioning of
the labor market as it impinges upon the manpower issues of their own
organization. Examples of such concerns are reflected in many of the
questions for which they should seek answers. Are the recipients of
planning services able to hire as, many people as they wish? Are they
able to employ those people that have the requisite skills? If neither
of these functions are being satisfied, in what form are they being
violated? Do positions remain vacant for undesirable lengths of time?
What is an "undesirable" length of time? Are people hired who later
separate themselves, either voluntarily or involuntarily, from the
organization with "abnormal" frequency? Do vacancies and turnovers
exist because the wage structure is not competitive, or are they re-
lated to such working conditions as unpleasant jobs or lack of career
ladders associated with the Job?
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10-19
The manpower planner will also be interested in and make 'esti-
mates related to, although not necessarily be directly involved in,
matters related to training. What is adequate training for a given
position? Which type of training should the organization engage
directly in and which should it encourage other institutions to
establish? Are existing or proposed training programs necessary?
Has a relationship between training and the operation of the organiza-
tion been sufficiently established to warrant allocation of funds for
training? It may prove difficult to answer many of these questions.
An important reason for this is that the output of many public sector
organizations is difficult to quantify and thus to relate changes in
output to changes in the allocation of training resources may not be
possible. At best they will be different.
All of the preceding, although an incomplete list of those items
with which a manpower planner will be concerned, provide ample reason
why the planner will have to measure certain employment characteristics.
Such measurements provide information on the actual manpower state of
the organization. It will also be required that the planner compare
such measurements with the intended manpower position of the organization,
These measurements will Involve not only the current value of
employment characteristics but also estimates of their expected future
values. Given the futurity of planning, the planner will provide input
for decisions whose effect will be in the future. Thus the planner will
be required not only to measure what is occurring today but project or
forecast what he or she expects to occur over some future time period.
Such forecasts would implicitly include what would occur in the absence
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10-20
of planning and the adoption of manpower programs. These forecasts
therefore estimate the difference between where the organization is
today and where it will be in the future if no new activities are
adopted. The difference between the expected actual and the intended
future states of the organization determines the kind and magnitude of
the manpower programs that will be recommended.
Data Storage and Retrieval
The task of measuring current employment characteristics and
forecasting future employment characteristics will be a cyclical one,
the frequency of which will depend upon the nature of the organization
and the occupations employed therein. In general, an annual cycle is
desirable. This will require that annual measurements and forecasts
would be required. Thus each year measurement of current employment
characteristics would be made, and forecasts of such employment char-
acteristics would be made for each year within the planning horizon.
Such practices will quickly develop an inventory of manpower data that
should be stored in such a way that it facilitates later retrieval.
The measurement and forecasting tasks will generate data that will be
useful not only for the immediate period and purposes but also for
other periods and purposes. As we shall explore in greater depth sub-
sequently, the manpower planner will at some future date be measuring
as a current employment characteristic which she or he had previously
forecasted. If past forecasts are stored properly, the planner could
retrieve them and compare the accuracy of the forecasts with her or
his measurements.
The task of storing and retrieving manpower data is one that man-
power planners need not literally do themselves. Their function would
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10-21
be to determine what data should be stored, the form in which it should
be displayed upon retrieval, and possibly the type of computer programs
they might wish to have made available in order to permit certain
typ,es of analysis to be conducted.
In many instances the amount of data to be collected and the uses
to which it will be put will require the use of a digital computer.
Such is not always possible, however, particularly in the initial
periods of manpower planning efforts when resources may be meager or
top-level management skeptical of the value of manpower planning. On
the basis of a judgment that few computer services will initially be
available to the manpower planner, we shall not discuss the computer
formats for storing data. In chapters 11 through 16 we present detailed
tabular examples of suggested data formats. These tables have the
advantage of providing a framework for those who have computer facil-
ities, for they suggest a form in which the data should be stored and
the type of programs manpower planners will need in order to retrieve
and analyze the data. Such forms can be shown to the organization's
computer personnel who can convert them to maintain storable and re-
trievable formats.
Uses of the Data
The generation of manpower data is not an end in itself. The
data's value is derived from its use. The intended uses of the data
determine the type of data that should be collected. The uses the
manpower planner should expect to make of the data are as aids in fore-
casting future manpower conditions, as a basis for assessing current
and expected manpower problems, and as a basis for measuring the per-
formance of the manpower planning process. This implies that the data
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10-22
should not only describe important aspects of current employment, but
also they should contribute to the forecasting of future employment
characteristics and the detection and analysis of manpower problems.
How manpower planners determine what specific data are to be col-
lected will depend upon their knowledge of their organization and the
framework within which they approach the manpower planning process.
The first is rather obvious, the second not quite so. To illustrate,
consider an organization known to have a problem with maintaining a
given level of employment. Several reasons might exist for this:
poor working conditions, low wages, absence of career ladders. A
framework for manpower planning that included such areas as economic
and human factors engineering, labor economics, and so forth would
seek data on working conditions, wages and career ladders that would
enable the planner to determine which if any among the several possible
causes existed. A framework that ignored the economic factors, how-
ever, would not collect wage data and would thus not compare agency
wages with wages in similarly structured occupations. In other words,
what data are collected and how they are used is determined by what is
considered to be important, and what is considered important depends
upon the framework of analysis the planners bring to their position.
We have argued in this text that many disciplines contribute to the
manpower planning process, and to slight any of them is to court dis-
appointment in the efficacy of the manpower planning effort.
The amount of data collected and the uses to which they are placed
will be determined by the level of resources devoted to the planning
function. Data collection and usage should proceed to that point where
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10-23
the (Incremental) benefits of such activities equals their (Incre-
mental) costs. This is admittedly a difficult point to measure.
We shall assume that for most manpower planners such a point will not
be reached within the relevant future. This is to imply that the
total resources committed to manpower planning will be too small to
fully do all the planning tasks. With given and limited budgets, the
planner must allocate resources carefully among the various manpower
planning activities.
Analysis of Manpower Planning Problems
Primary uses for the data in addition to forecasting future man-
power needs are the determination and analysis of manpower problems
and the institution of a performance control mechanism. Many solutions
to a finite number of manpower problems are possible, although the
resources to solve such problems may be limited. In the face of such
constraints, the number of problems identified must be limited and
the number of problems that one expects will be solved may have to be
severely limited. In order to execute the necessary allocations, the
manpower planner will have to make some assessments concerning what the
most serious problems are. This will require a blend of theory and
empirical work — theory to identify possible problems and empirical
work to assess their magnitude — and considerable personal judgment.
The empirical work will often go beyond the measuring and forecasting
of current and future employment conditions. It will involve such mat-
ters as trying to determine if there is a relationship between turn-
overs and vacancy rates with deficient wages or in relating recruitment
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10-24
difficulties to career ladders. It may also require some consideration
of the priorities as seen by the operating departments.
It is unlikely that much of this type of analysis would be
achieved in the early years of any manpower planning effort. Such
analysis will require considerable data and experience, not to mention
analytical abilities. During the early years of the planning effort,
some of these skills may be sought outside the immediate manpower
planning office. In addition, manpower planners may, in the absence
of their own data and analysis, conduct inferential analysis from the
data and experiences of other manpower planners. It will be advanta-
geous for individual planners to continuously keep abreast of manpower
activities and the functioning of the labor market in which they oper-
ate. In the absence of their own generated data, it would be of some
importance to be knowledgeable about studies dealing with problems sim-
ilar to their perceived manpower problems or even to know of research
that is related to what are likely to be their more serious manpower
problems. Such inference Is not always accurate, since the response of
vacancies in one organization to'an increase in wages, for example, may
not be of the same magnitude In other organizations because of different
occupations, location, or working conditions, and so on. But in the
early period of manpower planning, judgment and common sense can gen-
erate much useful insight from such sources.
Limited resources can impose other difficulties that are related
to the providing of information to the organization's management. Sup-
pose, for example, that the manpower problems that have been identified
can be solved only through the expenditure of certain funds and that
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10-25
such funds are not large enough, to support all of the programs that
are "needed" to eliminate the problems. Some choice has to be made
as to where the resources are to be allocated. These choices should
be made upon the basis of the expected payoffs from their solution.
Very elaborate procedures have been developed for solving budgeting
problems, but it would be unreasonable for us to expect that many
manpower planners will be able to engage in them. Those planning offices
that come to the planning function with certain skills may conduct
such budgeting analysis by themselves, or those planners working in an
organization that has, for whatever reason, allocated many people of
varying skills to the planning office may have the resources to make such
analysis. For the average manpower planner this will not be the state
of affairs, and second best methods will have to be employed.
The seriousness of the lack of this type of skill in the planning
office is mitigated somewhat by the fact that making such decisions, or
even making such a list, is on the borderline between the planning and
the management function. Insofar as this is the case, such decisions
may have been made for the manpower planner or at least her or his range
of choice may have been restricted. Nevertheless, the planner should
be aware of the relevant issues and attempt to develop an office,
either through self-improvement or in the hiring of relevant staff,
to be able to function in this area.
Performance Control
As we have mentioned before, the process of manpower planning is
best viewed as a cyclical one. In being cyclical, it can also be adap-
tive. Many of those tasks that individual manpower planners will do in
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10-26
the performance of their job they will do on a periodic basis — they
will periodically measure and forecast employment characteristics and
analyze problems. The process is adaptive in the sense that as certain
tasks are repeated, it is to be expected that the execution and results
of such a task would be improved. Alternatively, we may say that be-
cause the process is periodic, it can be adaptive. The reoccurring nat-
ure of many tasks allows the planners to improve upon them. To do
this, however, they must establish a procedure whereby they monitor
or measure their own performance. This is made possible of course by
the storage and retrieval of the relevant data. Such data are not only
that which the planners have collected from external sources, but also
that generated by their own planning process.
For the planning process to be adaptive, it is not only required
that the process be periodic, but also that individual planners have
some framework in which they can evaluate their own performance. Pur-
posive adaptation cannot be made if there exists no criteria, either
internally or externally imposed, which can be used to judge or evaluate
when changes are "improvements" or "detriments." In addition, for the
process to be adaptive, data generated by the process must be reliable.
Such data as is generated in one period are used in subsequent periods.
We refer to this as the existence of a "feedback mechanism."
A well-functioning feedback mechanism supplies the manpower plan-
ner with information on how the organization performed in the previous
period. It will also indicate those areas in which the organization
failed to meet its stated objectives. On the basis of this information
the planner can adjust previous programs in such a way as to improve
the overall planning process. In many cases such adjustments will only
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10-27
be partial because the cost of adjusting fully to any unfulfilled
objective may not be permitted within the agency's monetary and time
constraints. Since this feedback mechanism exists after every cycle
of the planning process, many deficiencies will in time be eliminated,
or at least mitigated. There will be a continuous need for a feed-
back mechanism, however, because the organization will have to re-
spond to random disturbances or shocks both internal and external
that will occur to the system. These disturbances will generally
be of such a nature as one should not expect them to be accounted
for by the forecasting techniques used within the organization.
Under certain conditions the performance control mechanism of
the organization may have a feed-forward mechanism. This would
include those aspects of the planning process that could anticipate
the occurrence of certain events, either internal or external to the
organization, and deduce the probable effect upon certain manpower
characteristics of the organization.
Both feedback and feed-forward control mechanisms place con-
siderable stress upon the manpower planner's analytical abilities.
In feedback mechanisms the manpower planner will have to explain
what certain things occurred, or didn't occur, and why programs
introduced in the past didn't perform as expected. If feed-forward
mechanisms are employed, the manpower planner must have the ability
to relate expected future events to certain manpower issues and
devise programs to help the organization adjust to them.
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10-28
SUMMARY
This and the preceding chapter have reviewed certain elements of
planning in general and manpower planning in particular. One implica-
tion from the preceding paragraph is that the planning process is a
cyclical one. This has been emphasized by many writers in the area
of planning whether it be planning for stabilization, land use planning,
or previous discussion of manpower planning. The cyclical process is
illustrated in Figure 10.1. There is no unique beginning for entering
this process. Planning involves the act of determining the organiza-
tion's objectives and from such objectives determining the desired or
intended position that the organization would like to attain in the
current and future time periods. A beginning also includes having some
model of the organization and some analytical techniques. These are
the techniques reviewed in those chapters dealing with labor economics,
human engineering, and public administration. These techniques (or
model of organization) will be used in determining certain objectives,
in analyzing certain problems, and in determining appropriate courses
of action. A beginning is also required in measuring characteristics
of current employment and forecasting future characteristics. Measure-
ments deal directly with ascertaining not only the actual state of
the system at some future time but the desired or intended state in
future time periods.
A comparison should be made between the actual state of the or-
ganization with respect to its manpower conditions and its intended
state. Decisions based upon information obtained from that compari-
son may then be made as to what action should be taken. These actions
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10-29
Organization's
Objectives
Intended
or
Desired
State
Feedback
Model of
of
Organization
Comparison
Decisions on
Actions
to be Taken
Implementation
(Advice)
1
Performance
Control
Forecasting
Feedback
FIGURE 10.1. Schematic View of Planning Process
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10-30
should then be Implemented with the aid of the manpower planner, al-
though all of them may not be directly under his or her control in
those circumstances where he or she serves only as an adviser to
others. Following this, there must be some process that deals with
controlling the performance of the planning process and providing
information that is fed back into the system on which to base intended
improvements in the system. Information as to the nature of this
performance control is also obtained in the measurement process, as
indicated again by this schematic view.
What we have attempted to accomplish in chapters 9 and 10 is to
sketch planning processes viewed in general and planning processes
viewed in particular for manpower. Although we do not wish to empha-
size the necessarily sequential nature of manpower planning, neverthe-
less it is necessary to talk in sequential terms when explaining in
detail how such planning may be undertaken. For purposes of exposi-
tion in subsequent chapters and as a guide to those engaged in manpower
planning, we have divided the manpower planning process into six steps.
There is nothing sacred about these steps, or what others may prefer
to call tasks, and fewer or more steps can be obtained if certain
practices are compacted or spread out. The six steps we offer at
this point are as follows:
1. Describe the manpower dimensions of the agency or industry
and ascertain its manpower objectives.
2. Measure current employment characteristics.
3- Forecast future employment characteristics.
4. Identify and analyze manpower problems.
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10-31
5. Develop alternative action steps in response to current
and anticipated manpower problems,
6. Develop a performance control mechanism.
In the next several chapters we shall present considerable detail
on these various steps or tasks that the manpower planner must perform
To some individuals the concept of "planning steps" is one that implies
a concept of sequence. For the most part, such implications are in-
tended and warranted by discussion and the consequent ordering of
the manpower planning steps. We expect that performing them sequen-
tially in the order given will result in an effective, efficient, and
rational manpower plan. We are aware, however, that in the day-to-day
practice of manpower planning, there will occur much movement in
various activities, and perhaps for this reason the six manpower plan-
ning steps should more appropriately be referred to as tasks. Such
terminology will free some readers of having to accept the implication
of following the sequence of activities proposed here. In light of
these considerations, we find It necessary to emphasize that we do not
view these steps as sacrosanct nor do we view their ordering as such.
We readily admit to the possibility and feasibility of rearranging,
consolidating, or further dividing them as the work loads and tastes
of the particular manpower planner dictate. While we do not wish to
place undue emphasis upon the use of the word "step" and might just
as well use the work "task" or "activity," we personally would put
slightly more emphasis upon the ordering of these tasks as "steps."
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10-32
SELECTED REFERENCES
Hitch, Charles J. and McKean, Roland N. The Economics of Defense
in the Nuclear Age. New York: Atheneum Publishers,1965.
Mangum, Garth and Snedeker, David. Manpower Planning for Local
Labor Markets. Salt Lake City: Olympus Publishing Company,
I9W.
Niskanen, William. Bureaucracy and Representative Government.
Chicago: Aldine Publishing Company, 1971-
Patten, Thomas R. Manpower Planning and the Development of Human
Resources. New York: Wiley-Interscience -Publishing Company,
1971.
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11.
DESCRIPTION OF THE ORGANIZATION
In this chapter we discuss manpower planning step 1: Describe
the manpower dimensions of the agency or industry and ascertain its
manpower objectives. This manpower planning step can be divided into
two substeps: The first deals with describing the sources and types
of employment within the industry, while the second is concerned with
the specific manpower objectives that the organization may adopt.
We shall consider these substeps seriatum.
In this and subsequent chapters on the applied aspects of man-
power planning, we shall introduce several tables and charts, the
purpose of which is to serve as vehicles for collecting, storing, and
analyzing manpower data. Although our intent in this volume has been
to appeal to a broad spectrum of public agencies, when we come to
the point of introducing specific tables, our generality must of
necessity give way to specificity. In most of our examples we shall
use descriptions that are found within a. dominant part of the water
quality control field -- the wastewater treatment plants sector. Such
tables and charts as we introduce should be easily adaptable to the
particular descriptions of other agencies.
DESCRIBE THE MANPOWER DIMENSIONS
OP THE ORGANIZATION
The purpose of executing this step is to have manpower planners
become familiar with the employment characteristics of the organiza-
tion for which they are conducting the planning. They must have a
firm knowledge of many facets of the organization which affect its
11-1
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11-2
manpower dimension. While the degree of such knowledge may vary
from one aspect of the organization to another, a general overview
is nevertheless required. Manpower planners should know the structure
of the agency from its administrative head through all of its places
of employment, even though they may never engage in planning for
certain segments of this organizational hierarchy. One way of ob-
taining this information is to study or construct, should one not
be available, an organizational flow chart. An understanding of the
structure of the agency would at least be an introduction to an under-
standing of the managerial process of the organization. Often such
processes are difficult to quantify beyond that found in organizational
flow charts, and much of the process may depend upon the personalities
of those occupying a particular position within the organization. The
manpower planner should not ignore the nuances of these immeasurable
influences, although it is difficult to suggest what weight should
be attached to such matters. As we have previously suggested, in many
aspects of planning good judgment and common sense have few substitutes.
With respect to the organizational flow chart — individual
manpower planners should of course understand and appreciate the strengths
and weaknesses of their position within the agency. They should real-
istically assess their relative position within the agency and also
understand and appreciate how other individuals within the organization
may view their position. Although much of the manpower planning litera-
ture with which the planner may deal constantly stresses the importance
of manpower planning, this will not be a view shared by all people in
the organization. Improvement in these poor attitudes toward manpower
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11-3
planning could be made if the planners can in time, through their
good work, illustrate the importance of their many functions. In
any event, a personal dedication to manpower planning should be
tempered by the realization that it is a dedication not necessarily
shared by others and one whose merits may have to be initially and
periodically supported within the organization.
The most important areas of understanding that manpower planners
should obtain of their organization are those related to the sources
and type of employment found within the organization. To this should
also be added information on training programs and personnel advance-
ment. Each manpower planner should obtain an inventory of the, sources
of employment — a term we shall refer to as "plant" — and types
of occupations found within the plant.
The specific and quantifiable tasks to be accomplished as a
minimum in fulfilling the first part of Step 1 are to construct an
organizational flow chart for the agency, take an inventory of exist-
ing sources of employment, take an inventory of training resources,
and construct a profile of current personnel.
Organizational Flow Chart
Within many public agencies most of the manpower planning is
expected to occur at the state and local levels — the local level
planning would occur in large municipalities that can support such
activities. At the state level the organizational flow chart often
takes on the characteristics of the example from the environmental
field which is illustrated in Figure 11.1.
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Surveillance
Director of
State EPA or
Health Department
Water
Quality
Air
Pollution
Other
Manpower Planning,
Development,
and Training
Manpower
Planning
Officer
Manpower
Training
Officer
FIGURE 11.1. State Organizational Flow Chart
Although we have indicated a separation of manpower planning
and training functions, in many states this will not be the case,
especially in the initial period when such programs are being de-
veloped. The separation of the manpower planning and training offices
will also be a function of the relative work loads within the state.
In any event, in our analysis in this book we have implicitly assumed
that the manpower planning officer will be primarily responsible for
planning, while a separate person will be responsible for the detailed
aspects of the state or local organization's training efforts.
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11-5
Inventory of Sources of Employment
To inventory the sources of employment within their organiza-
tion manpower planners should document the number and location of
such sources, differentiating them according to the size or type or
any other characteristic that is deemed important for understanding
its employment dimension. They should also document the number and
types of occupations that are found at each source and note any
regularities that might exist between the type and size of employ-
ment source and the type and number of occupations. In the field of
wastewater treatment, such information has been obtained by first
completing at the state level an inventory of wastewater treatment
plants in a format similar to that depicted in Table 11-1.
TABLE 11-1
Inventory of the State's Wastewater
Treatment Plants
PLANT
NUMBER
LOCATION
CODES
COUNTY
SMS A
BASIN
SIZE
IN h
MGDC
TREATMENT
CODE
NAME
SMSA - Standard metropolitan statistical area
MGD = million gallons per day
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These data were further displayed according to type and size in the
format illustrated by Tables 11-2 and 11-3. From these examples
it should be clear how for any organization an inventory of sources
of employment can be obtained. For many organizations in the pub-
lic sector the degree of detail would not be so large as these il-
lustrated for wastewater treatment plants. In general, however, the
greater the degree of detail that can be constructed, the greater
the benefits for later analysis.
TABLE 11-2
Inventory of the State's Existing Plants by Type and Size
TYPE OF
TREATMENT
20 PRIMARY -SETTLING
TAMKS
21 PRIMARY-SEPTIC
TANKS
22 PRIMARY IMHOFF
TANKS
23 PRIMARY-MEGHAN
ICALLY CLEANED
24 PRIMARY-PLAIN,
HOPPER BOTTOM
29 PRIMARY OTHERS
AND UN KNOWN
30 CHEMICAL
41 SECONDARY-ACTI
VATED SLUDGE
42 SECONDARY -EXTEND
ED AERATION
43 SECONDARY-
BIOLOGICAL
44 SECONDARY -
BIOLOGICAL
45 SECONDARY --SAND
FILTER
46 SECONDARY-LAND
DISPOSAL
47 SECONDARY
LAGOONS
48 SECONDARY-
BIOLOGICAL
49 SECONDARY -OTHERS
AND UN KNOWN
TOTAL PLANTS FOR
GIVEN SIZE
SIZE OF PLANT BY A VERAGE DA Y CAPACITY MGD
UNKNOWN
0 001
0 999
1 000
4 999
5 000-
24 999
25 000-
99 999
100 000*
TOTAL FOR
GIVEN TYPE
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11-7
TABLE 11-3
Inventory of the State's Existing Plants by
General Type of Treatment and by Size
TYPE OF
TREATMENT
PRIMARY
SECONDARY
TERTIARY
TOTAL PLANTS
FOR GIVEN
SIZE
SIZE OF PLANT BY A VERAGE DA Y CAPACITY IN MCD
UNKNOWN
0 001-
0 999
1 000-
4.999
5.000^
24.999
25.000-
99.999
100.000-1
TOTAL PLANTS
FOR GIVEN
TYPE
Once an inventory of the places of employment has been made, an
inventory should be made of the types and occupations that are found
in these various sources. Again we use an example from wastewater
treatment plants. This inventory consisted of two important dimensions:
On the one hand the title and occupation description were obtained and
a list of the desired levels of employment by size of plant, type of
plant, and occupation was also obtained. These desired levels of em-
ployment have been called levels of "recommended employment," a concept
that we shall say more about in our discussion of step 2. In any event,
the occupational descriptions and the levels of recommended employment
were obtained on the basis of staffing guides that were constructed
for a variety of different size and type of plants. Such staffing guides
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11-f
were discussed in chapter 1, which dealt with human engineering.
Although it is not the responsibility of manpower planners to actually
engage in those activities that generate the staffing guides and
occupational descriptions, nevertheless, it is their duty to see that
whenever possible and wherever needed such staffing guides and occu-
pational descriptions are obtained.
In Table 11-4 we illustrate an inventory of occupations and
levels of recommended employment that varies according to the size
of the wastewater treatment plant.
For each occupation an occupational description should be ob-
tained. Such a description tells what tasks the employee must per-
form and what educational achievements and skills are required. Once
again this is a job for the human factors engineer. An example of
an occupational description for an Operator I within a wastewater
treatment plant is displayed in Figure 11.2.
Training Inventory
The manpower planner must know what the current capacity of
his agency is. (In some cases, a separate training officer may exist
within the agency, and much of what we suggest that the manpower
planner obtain may be supplied by the training officer. What we sug-
gest the manpower planner do with training issues are those we feel
he or she should do at a minimum and in the presence of a training
officer. Should a separate training officer not exist, the manpower
planner will be called upon to do more than we have suggested in this
area.) One way of indicating certain aspects of this capacity is
to document the training effort of the recent past. Such an inventory
-------
11-9
TABLE 11-4
Staff Complements to Wastewater
Treatment Plants
Example No. 1
a
Occupation Title
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Clerk typist
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator II
Operator 1
Auto, equipment operator
Maintenance supervisor
Mech maintenance foreman
Maintenance mechanic II
Maintenance mechanic 1
Electrician II
Electrician 1
Maintenance helper
Laborer
Painter
Storekeeper
Custodian
Chemist
Laboratory technician
TOTAL staff complement
Plant Average Day Capacity in mgd
1
3
5 | 10
20
35
50
65
80
700
Estimated Number of Personnel
1
3
4
1
4
O.b
5.5
0.5
1
b
1
7.5
1
1
1
4
O.b
1
1
1
9.5
1
1
2
4
1
1
O.b
1
2
1
14.5
1
1
1
3
b
1
1
1
1
1
4
2
22
1
1
1.b
b
b
1
1
1
1
O.b
2
4
1
2
29
1
1
2
1
6
6
1
1
2
1
1
O.b
2
b
1
1
2
34.5
1
1
2
1
7
8
2
1
2
2
1
1
3
5
1
1
0.5
2
41.5
1
1
2
1
1
8
8
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
4
7 ~l
0.5
1
1
0.5
2
48
Plant components included in this example are
Liquid Treatment
Raw wastewater pumping
Preliminary treatment
Primary sedimentation
Chlormation
Sludge Treatment
Primary sludge pumping
Sludge digestion
Sludge drying beds (b)
(1,3 and 5 mgd plants)
Sludge lagoons (c)
(10 mgd and larger plants)
Other Plant Components
Yardwork
Laboratory
Administration and general
Sludge removed from plant site by plant personnel
Sludge removed from plant site under contract.
-------
11-10
can be obtained by completing, at a minimum, a table such as that
illustrated in Table 11-5- Further information on training, partic-
ularly the types of training, was presented in chapter 4.
OCCUPATION DESCRIPTION
Title OPERATOR I, WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT
JOB DESCRIPTION
Assists Operator II in performance of any combination of
following tasks pertinent to controlling operation of plant or
performs various tasks as directed Operates treatment facili-
ties to control flow and processing of wastewater, sludge,
and effluent. Monitors gages, meters, and control panels.
Observes variations in operating conditions and interprets
meter and gage readings and test results to determine pro-
cessing requirements. Operates valves and gates either
manually or by remote control; starts and stops pumps,
engines, and generators to control and adjust flow and treat-
ment processes. Maintains shift log and records meter and
gage readings. Extracts samples and performs routine labora-
tory tests and analyses. Performs routine maintenance func-
tions and custodial duties. Operates and maintains power
generating equipment and incinerators. Classified by title
such as Pumping Station Operator I or Digester Operator I
when performing specialized activities only.
QUALIFICA TIONS PROFILE
1. Formal Education
High school graduate or equivalent training and experi-
ence.
2. General Requirements
a. Ability to learn operation of plant processes and
equipment.
b. Ability to maintain and evaluate simple records.
c. Ability to maintain working relationship with other
shift workers.
3 General Educational Development
a. Reasoning
Apply common sense understanding to carry out
written, oral, or diagrammatic instructions. Deal with
FIGURE 11.2. Occupation Description
-------
11-11
FIGURE 11.2 (cont.)
problems involving concrete variables in or from stand-
ardized situations
b. Mathematical
Perform ordinary arithmetical calculations
c. Language
Ability to comprehend oral and written instructions,
record information, and request supplies and work
materials orally or in writing.
4. Specific Vocational Preparation
On-the-job training from date of employment. Com-
pletion of an operator training course highly desirable
Previous experience as laborer or equipment operator in
wastewater treatment plant also desirable.
5. Aptitudes-Relative to General Working Population
a. Intelligence )
b. Verbal )
c. Numerical )
d Spatial ) Lowest third excluding
e. Form Perception ) bottom 10 percent
f. Clerical Perception )
g. Motor Coordination )
h. Finger Dexterity )
i Manual Dexterity ) Middle third
j. Eye-Hand-Foot Coordination ) Lowest third excluding
bottom 10 percent
k. Color Discrimination ) Middle third
6. Interests
Preference for activities of a routine, concrete,
organized nature, dealing with things and objects.
7. Temperament
Worker must adjust to situations involving a variety of
duties and evaluation of information against measurable
criteria.
8 Physical Demands
Medium work, involving climbing, balancing, stooping,
kneeling, crouching, reaching, handling, fingering, talk-
ing, hearing, visual acuity, depth perception, and color
vision.
9. Working Conditions
Both inside and outside. Exposed to weather, fumes,
odors, and dust May be exposed to toxic conditions
Definite risk of bodily injury
ENTRY SOURCES Graduates of operator training courses,
treatment plant laborers or equipment operators,
general public.
PROGRESSION TO Operator II.5
-------
11-12
in Table 11-5. Further Information on training, particularly the
types of training, was presented in chapter 4.
TABLE 11-5
Inventory of Training Capacity
Occupation
Type of
Training
Location
Duration
Sponsored
By
Source of
Funding
Demographic Data
It is obvious that the data thus far obtained fall short of sup-
plying certain types of information that would be useful in deter-
mining training and hiring programs that are necessary to meet the
needs of many public agencies. The manpower planner must know cer-
tain characteristics of the workers as individuals. Among the more
important types of such information is concerned with the education,
training, and occupational backgrounds of its current employees. To
acquire this information, the planner should see that every employee
completes a personal data form. In Figure 11.3 we display such a
form as was used for wastewater treatment plants in the state of
Michigan.
-------
11-13
If this form were used universally, exit Interviews would not
be necessary because the completion of this Information would pick
up all transfers between plants within the Industry. The informa-
tion obtained from these forms can then be aggregated, or a scien-
tific or random sample can be taken of the completed forms, so that
the planner will have meaningful information about transfers, educa-
tion, training, certification, experience, and so forth. If the
information is to be developed on a plant-by-plant basis, aggrega-
tion is probably necessary at that level; if it is to be developed
on a statewide or national basis, sampling might be sufficient. A
table patterned after Table 11-6 might be used to aggregate employee
data into a more succinct format.
Several other aggregate data forms should be compiled from the
personal information form. Since future separations may be sig-
nificantly affected by the age composition of the work force, a
table similar to Table 11-7 should be developed from the personal
data forms.
TABLE 11-7
Age Composition
Mean or ' Less than 25 25 to 4445 to 64 Over 64
Occupation Average Maximum Minimum Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
-------
WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT EMPLOYEES
PERSONAL INFORMATION FORM
SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER
NAME (Last, First, Middle Inn )
HOME MAILING ADDRESS
POST OFFICE
HOME PHONE NO (Include Area Code)
BIRTHDATE
SEX
1 HI MALE
2 D FEMALE
PRESENT EMPLOYMENT (Fill in below):
NAME OF PLANT
PLANT MAILING ADDRESS
POSITION TITLE
STATUS
1 D FULLTIME
2 D PART TIME
3 D SEASONAL
WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT CERTIFICATE (Fill in below).
1 D CLASS A
Year
Nr,mh»r
2 D CLASS B
Year
3 D CLASS C
Year
N..mpor
4 D CLASS D
Year
Numher
5 D NOT
CERTIFIED
WATER TREATMENT CERTIFICATES (Fill in below):
1 D F 1
2 D F2
3 D F3
4 D D 1
5 D 02
6 D M
7 D T
PROFESSIONAL STATUS (Fill in below}.
1 D ENGINEER
REGISTERED 1 D YES 2 D NO
REGISTRATION NO
WHERE
2 D SANITARIAN
REGISTERED 1 D YES 2 D NO
REGISTRATION NO
WHERE
3 D OTHER
REGISTERED 1 D
REGISTRATION NO
WHERE
YES 2 D NO
MILITARY STATUS:
VETERAN 1 D YES 2 Q NO
DRAFT CLASS
IS POSITION UNDFR CIVIL SERVICE? 1 D YES 2 D NO
I hereby certify that the information contained herein is accurate and complete
Signature
Date
FIGURE 11.3. Wastewater Treatment Plant Employees
Personal Information Form
-------
11-15
EDUCATION AND TRAINING - DIVISION I
GRAMMAR SCHOOL (Circle highest grade you completed in Grammar School)
HIGH SCHOOL
NAME
LOCATION
NAME
LOCATION
COURSE OF
STUDY
CIRCLE HIGHEST
GRADE COMPLETED
9 10 11 12
9 10 11 12
Date From
Mo - Yr
Date To
Mo -Yr
DID YOU
GRADUATE'
1 D YES
2 D NO
1 D YES
2 D NO
IF YOU DID NOT GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL, HAVE YOU OBTAINED 1 DYES IF YES - DATE
ASTANDARD HIGHSCHOOL EQUIVALENCY GE D. CERTIFICATE' 2 D NO EARNED (Mo - Yr I
JUNIOR COLLEGES, COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES YOU HAVE ATTENDED (List below)
NAME
LOCATION "
NAME
LOCATION
NAME
LOCATION
MAJOR
MINOR
MAJOR
MINOR
MAJOR
MINOR
DATES ATTENDED
From (Mo - Yr I
DATES AT-
From(Mo-Yr I
To [Mo-Yr I
rENDED
To (Mo- Yr I
DATES ATTENDED
From (Mo - Yr I
To (Mo Yr)
NAME OF DEGREE
YEAR OF DEGREE
NAME OF DEGREE
YEAR OF DEGREE
NAME OF DEGREE
YEAR OF DEGREE
HOW MANY HOURS CREDIT HAVE YOU OBTAINED FROM AN ACCREDITED COLLEGE (Fill in below)
NOTE Term credits are obtained in a school offering 3 twelve week periods from September to June Semester credits are obtained in a school offering
2 or 3 sixteen-week periods annually If you attended more than three colleges, use additional sheets of paper and attach
UNDERGRADUATE
SFMFSTFRrHFniTS
GRADUATE
SEMF^TF" r-HcniTl
UNDERGRADUATE
nllARTFR HDIIR P.RFniTR
GRADUATE
QUARTER HOUR
mcni-re
WHAT BUSINESS, TRADE, OR OTHER SCHOOLS HAVE YOU ATTENDED (Including courses while in military service)
NOTE Include any extention or correspondence courses you have completed List in sequence from earliest date to present Give name of school
or sponsoring agency, location, course title or subject material, beginning and ending dates of attendance, and hours in class per week For correspondence
courses, check proper box Include such courses as "Gull Lake Laboratory Course," but do not include short duration activities such as, "Wastewater Plant
Operator Fall Training Session "
NAME
LOCATION
NAME
LOCATION
NAME
LOCATION
COURSE TITLE OR SUBJECT
CORRESPONDENCE
COURSE D YES
COURSE TITLE OR SUBJECT
CORRESPONDENCE
COURSE D YES
COURSE TITLE OR SUBJECT
CORRESPONDENCE
COURSE D YES
DATES ATTENDED
From (Mo - Yr I
To (Mo - Yr )
DATES ATTENDED
From (Mo- Yr I
DATES A
From (Mo- Yr )
To (Mo - Yr I
TTENDED
To (Mo - Yr )
HOURS IN
CLASS PER WK
HOURS IN
CLASS PER WK
HOURS IN
CLASS PER WK
IF YOU HAVE ATTENDED MORE THAN THREE SPECIAL STUDIES COURSES, USE ADDITIONAL SHEETS OF PAPER AND ATTACH
IN WHICH APPRENTICESHIP PROGRAMS HAVE YOU BEEN ENROLLED'
NAME
LOCATION
NAME
LOCATION
DATES ATTENDED
From (Mo - Yr I
To (Mo Yr I
DATES ATTENDED
From (Mo Yr )
To (Mo- Yr 1
COMPLETED
COMPLETED
FIGURE 11.3 (cont.)
-------
11-16
EXPERIENCE -DIVISION II
YEAR ENTERED WORK IN
WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT
NUMBER OF YEARS OF EXPERIENCE IN
1 PRIMARY TREATMENT
2 ACTIVATED SLUDGE
3 TRICKLING FILTER
4 LABORATORY
5 DIGESTERS
6 VACUUM FILTERS
7 INCINERATOR
8 RAPIDSAND FILTER
AREAS IN WHICH YOU ARE MOST KNOWLEDGEABLE
1 D PRIMARY TREATMENT W/DIGESTERS
2 D ACTIVATED SLUDGE
3 D TRICKLING FILTER
4 D LABORATORY
5 D MECHANICAL WORK
6 D ELECTRICAL WORK
7 D VACUUM FILTER
8 D INCINERATOR
9 D OTHER
EMPLOYMENT RECORD, WASTEWATER TREATMENT INDUSTRY (Fill in below)
NOTE Beginning with your present or last employment and continuing in reverse time order, list and describe in detail in the spaces provided, and on
additional sheets if necessary, every position which you have filled since the beginning of your wastewater treatment plant work experience, including
that while in the military service If you have held two or more positions for the same plant or different levels of responsibility or with different duties
List and describe them separately the same as though this had been for separate employers
PLANT LOCATION
DATE From (Mo - Yr 1
DATE To (Mo - Yr 1
No Employees
Supervised
POSITION TITLE
1 D SUPERINTENDENT
2 D ASST SUPERINTENDENT
3 D SHIFT SUPERVISOR
4 D OPERATOR
5 D CHIEF CHEMIST
6 D LAB TECHNICIAN
7 D MECHANIC
8 D ELECTRICIAN
9 l~l OTHFR
DESCRIPTION OF DUTIES (Be Specific)
PLANT LOCATION
DATE From (Mo - Yr )
DATE To (Mo - Yr I
No Employees
Supervised
POSITION TITLE
1 D SUPERINTENDENT
2 D ASST SUPERINTENDENT
3 D SHIFTSUPERVISOR
4 D OPERATOR
5
6
7
8
9
D CHIEF CHEMIST
D LAB TECHNICIAN
D MECHANIC
D ELECTRICIAN
D DTHFR
DESCRIPTION OF DUTIES (Be Specific)
PLANT LOCATION
DATE From (Mo - Yr 1
DATE To (Mo - Yr I
No Employees
Supervised
by you
POSITION TITLE
1 D SUPERINTENDENT
2 D ASST SUPERINTENDENT
3 D SHIFTSUPERVISOR
4 D OPERATOR
5
6
7
8
9
D CHIEF CHEMIST
D LAB TECHNICIAN
D MECHANIC
D ELECTRICIAN
n n-rupR
DESCRIPTION OF DUTIES (Be Specific)
PLANT LOCATION
DATE From (Mo - Yr I
DATE To (Mo - Yr t
No Employees
Supervised
POSITION TITLE
1 D SUPERINTENDENT
2 D ASST SUPERINTENDENT
3 D SHIFTSUPERVISOR
4 D OPERATOR
5
6
7
8
9
D CHIEF CHEMIST
D LAB TECHNICIAN
D MECHANIC
D ELECTRICIAN
n rVTHFR
DESCRIPTION OF DUTIES (Be Specific)
A knowledgeable person should translate "description of duties" into "Operator I or II, Mechanic I or II," etc
UNION MEMBERSHIP
Do vou belong to a union' 1 D YES
If YES what union?
2 D NO
FIGURE 11.3 (cont.)
-------
11-17
EXPERIENCE - DIVISION II
PLANT LOCATION
DATE From (Mo - Yr 1
DATE To (Mo - Yr I
No Employees
Supervised
hy you
POSITION TITLE
1 D SUPERINTENDENT
2 D ASST SUPERINTENDENT
3 D SHIFT SUPERVISOR
4 D OPERATOR
5
6
7
8
9
D CHIEF CHEMIST
D LAB TECHNICIAN
D MECHANIC
D ELECTRICIAN
PI OTHER
DESCRIPTION OF DUTIES (Be Specific)
PLANT LOCATION
DATE From (Mo - Yr )
DATE To (Mo - Yr )
No Employees
Supervised
hy you
POSITION TITLE
1 D SUPERINTENDENT
2 D ASST SUPERINTENDENT
3 D SHIFT SUPERVISOR
4 D OPERATOR
5
6
7
8
9
D CHIEF CHEMIST
D LAB TECHNICIAN
D MECHANIC
D ELECTRICIAN
n OTHER
DESCRIPTION OF DUTIES (Be Specific)
GENERAL EXPERIENCE OTHER THAN WASTE WATER TREATMENT INDUSTRY (Fill in below)
List and describe in detail in the spaces provided, and on additional sheets if necessary, your work experience other than m a wastewvater treatment plant,
but which provides a background of experience which has contributed significantly to your work in the wastewater treatment field. List in reverse time order
EMPLOYER
DATE From (Mo-- Yr )
DATE To (Mo - Yr )
No Employees
Supervised
by you
ADDRESS
POSITION TITLE
RESPONSIBILITY AND DESCRIPTION OF DUTIES (BeSpecificI
EMPLOYER
DATE From (Mo - Yr )
DATE To (Mo - Yr )
No Employees
Supervised
hv you
ADDRESS
POSITION.
RESPONSIBILITY AND DESCRIPTION OF DUTIES (BeSpecific)
EMPLOYER
DATE From (Mo - Yr 1
DATE To (Mo - Yr )
No Employees
Supervised
by you
ADDRESS-
POSITION-
RESPONSIBILITY AND DESCRIPTION OF DUTIES (Be Specific)
MACHINE OR MECHANICAL EQUIPMENT WHICH YOU CAN OPERATE SKILLFULLY (Fill in below)
1
3
2
4
FIGURE 11.3 (cont.)
-------
11-18
TABLE 11-6
Summary of Selected Demographic Characteristics
Characteristics
Total number
Male
Female
Age
Present
status
Certificated
Registered
Schooling
completed
Last previous
experience
in
wastewater
treatment
Years of pre-
vious exper-
ience in
wastewater
treatment
plant
Years of pre-
vious exper-
ience in
present
occupation
Less Than 20 years
20-24 years
25-34 years
35-44 years
45-54 years
55-64 years
Over 64
Full time
Part time
Seasonal
Less than 12 years
12 years
Some college
College graduate
Some tech. school
Apprenticeship
Same level, same occupation
Same level, different occupation
Lower level, same occupation
Lower level, different occupation
Same industry, same state, different plant
Same industry, another state
Same plant
Different plant, same metro, system
Less than 1 year
1-4 years
5-10 years
11 -20 years
More than 20 years
Less than 1 year
1-5 years
6-10 years
11 -20 years
More than 20 years
Superintendent
Assistant
Supervisor
Operations
Supervisor
Shift Foreman
o
+-»
ro
CD
a
O
Operator I
Maintenance
Supervisor
-------
11-19
Another aspect of personal background of importance•to man-
power planners is the educational background of present employees,
providing information which may be translated into future educational
programs as well as overall manpower planning. The base of formal
education is that in which are usually included: grade school, high
school, junior college, technical college, community college, and
university work. The general education development (GED) diploma
is frequently considered an equivalent of a high school diploma and
can be included. This information can be compiled from the personal
data form and summarized in a table similar to Table 11-8.
TABLE 11-8
Extent of Formal Education
Years Completed
Number in Less than 8 8 10 12 14 16 Over 16 GED
Occupation Occupation No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent
Training may involve many areas unrelated to the occupation;
therefore it may be desirable to summarize training of employees
only in those areas related to the occupation or to preparation for
it. What is to be considered as "related training" must be deter-
mined by the planner with the help of the training officer and then
summarized in a table similar to Table 11-9.
Since certification and licensing of personnel is becoming in-
creasingly more important, information related to such factors may
-------
11-20
TABLE 11-9
Training in Areas Related to the Occupation
Hours of Training
0 1 to 20 21 to 50 50 to 100 101 to 200 201 to 500 More than 500
Occupation Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
be summarized from the personnel data forms in a format similar to
that shown as Table 11-10.
TABLE 11-10
Extent of Certification and Licensing
Number in Certified Licensed
Occupation Occupation Number Percent Number Percent
Previous work experience is important both for the purpose of
planning the training and of determining probable sources of future
employees. The information can be taken from the personal data form
and summarized in a table similar to Tables 11-11 through 11-13-
-------
11-21
TABLE 11-11
Previous Years of Experience in Wastewater Treatment Industry
Previous Years of Service
Present Number in 0 Less than 1 1 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 15 More than 15
Occupation Occupation Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
TABLE 11-12
Previous Experience by Occupational Group
Previous Occupational Group
White Machine
Present Skilled Unskilled Construction Plumber Collar Engineer Mechanic Other
Occupation No, Percent No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent No. Percent
TABLE 11-13
Previous Experience by Industry
Present Occupation Previous Industry5
Experience will dictate which industries are important.
-------
11-22
A picture of transfer patterns of present employees can be
developed, by the preparation of tables similar to Tables 11-14
and 11-15.
TABLE 11-14
Experience in Present Job and Grade
Years of Experience
Present Less than 1 1^5 6-10 11-15 Over 15
Occupation Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
TABLE 11-15
Last Previous Job in Wastewater Treatment Industry
Occupation Last Joba
See same jobs on left-hand column.
Continuity of service may be dependent in some measure upon
the civil service status of employees. The coverage of the various
occupations by civil service can be summarized as in Table 11-16.
-------
11-23
TABLE 11-16
Coverage by Civil Service
Covered by Civil Service
Occupation Total Number Percent
One other piece of desirable information is the extent of union-
ization. If the worker feels that union membership is acceptable
to the employer, she or he will answer questions on the personal
data form pertaining to any union membership. On the other hand,
if the employee feels that security or future would be impaired by
such information, she or he will seldom admit membership.
State manpower planners will want to know the extent of union-
ization of the plants in the state, the unions that are involved,
and the nature of the collective bargaining that exists. Because
of the sensitivity of the unionization question, it may therefore
be necessary to have an anonymous questionnaire administered which
is similar to the personal data form section on union membership.
It would also be helpful for state manpower planners to have copies
of all existing or potential union agreements or contracts, along
with all information possible about the unions involved. Information
should also be collected pertaining to past and current negotiations
on new contractual relationships, as well as changes in existing ones.
Data comparing union and nonunion plants can then be developed.
-------
11-24
Some skilled workers, especially in the absence of an indus-
trial-type union -- such as the American Federation of State, County
and Municipal Employees — may belong to craft-type unions such as
operating engineers, electricians, machinists, and the like. There-
fore information about these unions is also desirable. Included in
this information should be data about apprenticeship programs, wage
scales, and so on.
Career Ladders
Closely related to information on training is the documentation
of existing and desirable career ladders. A career ladder provides
an opportunity for advancement and defines the path that such ad-
vancement is most likely to follow. Whether such ladders exist will
play an important part in manpower planning. The manpower planner
should document the presence or absence of career ladders, determine
what is a desirable career ladder, and undertake the necessary steps
to bring the actual in compliance with the desired. An example of
a career ladder within a particular type of wastewater treatment plant
is illustrated in Figure 11.4.
The completion of the preceding tables and figures and an under-
standing of the material contained within them would provide the
manpower planner with information regarding the physical dimensions
of the source of employment found within an organization. The ex-
ception is that which we might refer to as the headquarter staff of
the organization. In some organizations information similar to that
illustrated in the aggregate tables and figures would exist, although
perhaps in a different format, and may be store-d on computer tapes.
-------
11-25
»-["oPERATOR tlj [^ELECTRICIAN II [ UJ^CHANIC H |
NTER j"*-i ENTRY SOURCE I
~' QUALIFIED
PAINTERS J
ENTRY SOURCE
GENERAL
PUBLIC HI CTH
SCHOOL
VOCATIONAL
GRADUATE
FIGURE 11.4. Career Ladder for a 50 to 100 mgd
Wastewater Treatment Plant
It may also be nonexistent, and In that event the planner will have
to obtain it. In many cases information might be obtained by circu-
lating some appropriately designed questionnaires listing the informa-
tion (see Figure 11.3). It is conceivable that for certain types of
public sector organizations a questionnaire cannot be circulated be-
cause it is not known with the appropriate degree of certainty where
the places of employment within the organization are. Such occurrences
would depend to a considerable extent upon how the manpower planning
function was organized at the state or local level.
-------
11-26
Such difficulty, as we have previously described, would most
often occur when the manpower planning function is organized on an
occupational rather than a functional basis. Should some local com-
munity establish a manpower planning function divided in some way
by occupation, it is conceivable that the person employed as the
manpower planner would not know where all people employed in that
particular occupation are located. Certainly at the national level,
exact information is not available on where all the economists or
solid-fuel rocket engineers are employed. This would seem to indi-
cate that planning organized on occupational structure would cause
a modification in this planning step. Rather than the detailed in-
ventory, what seems more appropriate is to simply list the type of
organizations that would employ the occupations for which the plan-
ning is being done. It would, however, be desirable to obtain an
inventory, even if based on sampling procedures, if resources permit.
It is quite possible, when we think further about the organi-
zation of the manpower planning function, that if it is organized
on an occupational structure, the detail of many of the steps that
we are about to expound upon will differ from one in which a planning
function is organized on a functional basis. This is simply another
variation of what we have said before : The weights attached to dif-
ferent steps in the manpower planning process will vary according
to the type of manpower being planned for.
Another important aspect of the organization with which the
manpower planner must be familiar is based upon the observation that
the demand for labor (manpower) is, as we have mentioned before, a
-------
11-27
derived demand. It is derived from the demand for the organization's
"output." What is the organization's output? How does employment
in the organization relate to such output? In many cases the output
is a service or, if it is a physical good, it is one that is riot
often conveniently measured. Furthermore, the product may not be
sold and revenues will come from a budgetary process. The manpower
planner should understand this process both in its current form and
also in its historical dimensions.
The question of what the organization does produce or what the
functions of the organization are will to many manpower planners be
obtained by past experiences in the organization. This source of
information is not likely to be sufficient, however, for it may too
narrowly prescribe the information available to the planner. Other
sources of information, possibly much broader than that obtained in-
ternally In the organization, is required. Should the planner be
working with a crime prevention organization such as a state highway
patrol, for example, it would not be detrimental to the performance
of his or her job to study both internal and external sources of
information. The planner may find considerable profit in reading
monographs or articles that discuss the causes of crime, the role of
incarceration in the prevention of crime, and the relationship of
poverty to crime. For someone planning for the various offices in
local government, knowledge of their increasing financial problems
and the intergovernmental relations would seem to be of use to such
a planner. In the area of water quality control, knowledge of the
effects of different pollutants, which goes beyond knowledge of the
-------
11-28
technical aspects of wastewater treatment, would be of use. In
short, the manpower planner should consider himself or herself a
part of the organization's management team and should therefore be-
come knowledgeable about the broader aspects of the organization.
With respect to the immediate manpower planning functions —
the individual manpower planners should have a feel for the history
of employment in the organization. If manpower planning has been
done prior to their doing it in the organization in any way that
resembles what we describe in this book, then planners will be able
to examine data collected in the past for such information. They
should understand the dimensions of past union and management rela-
tionships within the organization. They should understand the rela-
tionship between employment in their own organization and employment
in the relevant labor markets and the availability and relevance of
other manpower services upon which they may draw. They should know
whether they operate in a local labor market with respect to their
occupation or whether they must draw from a national or state market,
They should know if, given the nature of the people who may work
within the organization, whether the services of other manpower de-
partments are available to them. Can other manpower planners whose
primary objective is the placement of the disadvantaged be of assist-
ance to them? Can local training institutions provide them with
information on the training aspects of their functions?
Much of what we have described in this substep are activities
that may not need to be repeated on a regular basis because in some
cases the information obtained is a once-and-for-all proposition.
-------
11-29
If the organization is a dynamic one, however, this will not en-
tirely be the case. It will clearly be a periodic activity if the
organization is dynamic or if the interface with other organizations
is important. In general, however, much of the preceding has large
elements of a nonrepetitive-type activity.
DETERMINE THE ORGANIZATION'S OBJECTIVES
The purpose of this substep is to have the manpower planner come
to an understanding of the objectives of the organization and how
they relate to or influence the manpower objectives. Implicit in
the presence of this step is the view that the manpower planner is
a part of a "management team" who will both receive instructions from
other (higher) members of this team (the "manager") and provide input
useful to the team effort. The planner may be required to translate
organizational objectives into manpower objectives or may receive
direct and operational manpower objectives from management. In the
latter case, planners will of course be required to act on such ob-
jectives, although in those cases' when they feel such objectives are
poorly developed, for whatever reason, they should in some appropriate
way communicate such reservations to those who developed the objectives
In some cases the manpower objectives in the public sector,
at least in their broadest manifestation, are determined by the con-
tent of the enabling legislation for the organization in question.
(This is particularly the case in many of the emvironmental areas.)
The planner should thoroughly understand such ]iegislation. In other
cases the intent of the legislation will be general and vaguely stated
-------
11-30
thus requiring the planner to translate them, or assist in their
translation, to more operational objectives. The point of all this
is simply that even in what to some might be the easiest sector in
which to do good manpower planning, the movement from general or-
ganization objectives to operational manpower objectives is not an
easy one.
In some respects the transition mentioned above is more diffi-
cult in the public than in the private sector. An important reason
for this, even when all of the requisite skills are available to
measure returns to alternative employment configurations, is the
absence of certain benefits, whether they be cost minimization, in-
creased effectiveness, or others. Without the discipline of prof-
itability, or the operational guide of cost minimization, or some
definite measures of change in efficiency, other objectives are often
sought. One o.ften ill-conceived goal in the public sector is to
eliminate all production bottlenecks regardless of cost. It is un-
fortunately the case that many aids to occupational definitions are
often devised on assumptions that are not in general warranted by
the criterion of efficient operation.
In some cases past and present manpower efforts ought to be
questioned on the basis of the preceding arguments. For example,
staffing guides are most often based entirely upon engineering data,
with no allowance for trade-offs among the alternative occupations.
This is a particularly egregious error in eliminating the role of
input costs in determining such staffing guides. If taken as guides,
they are of value; but :Lf taken as absolutes, they may introduce
-------
11-31
inefficiencies into the operation of the organization. Objectives
that rely upon them must be tempered accordingly.
Moving from the organizational objectives to operational man-
power objectives is not an easy task. It will require certain skills
and considerable judgment. Even in the private sector where the or-
ganization's motive is the deceptively simple sounding maxim —
maximize profits -- much difficulty can be experienced in obtaining
manpower objectives. What would be required within a private firm
is that staff and occupational mix that maximizes profits. But such
a task requires all the costs and benefits from a given complement
of employees be measured.
Attempts, for example, to remove all production bottlenecks,
although a seemingly rational manpower objective, may not be optimum
insofar as the costs of removing it may outweigh the benefits. This
is not an uncommon aspect of private markets when some congestion
or seemingly nonoptimization is in fact optimal. Thus in certain cases,
allowing — or requesting — current employees to work overtime may
be more efficient than temporarily hiring new and additional workers.
Alternatively, given the considerable investment made by some firms
in certain of their employees, the firm may be reluctant to lay them
off in slack times for fear that these employees may find other and
more permanent work. For this reason some firms will "carry" certain
employees, which to the uninitiated may appear to be nonoptimization.
Manpower planners should engage in various search procedures
in an attempt to discover the nature of the organization's objective
function. By this we mean that they should obtain information from
-------
11-32
various sources that would indicate to them the trade-offs that
management appears to have among the various elements of its ob-
jective function. Such a search can be accomplished by direct ques-
tions of the management sector or, believing in the adage that actions
speak louder than words, in the programs and budgetary allocations
within the organization, wherever relevant. Given limited budgets
and staffs manpower planners may not be able to do all that they feel
is necessary, and certain priorities and trade-offs should be es-
tablished. They should determine, for example, whether their efforts
should be equally divided between assessing current problems and
projecting future problems, or whether projections carry more weight
in the objective function than measurement. They should determine
how important to the manager's objectives is the analysis of manpower
problems as compared to accurate projections of future manpower needs.
All in all, manpower planners should attempt to estimate these trade-
offs and priorities. Exact numerical weights will not be available,
but some rank orderings may be possible in selected cases. Ordinal
rankings might be obtained by analysis of current programs and their
status in the organization, as partially judged by their budgetary
allocations. Such information should be adjusted, however, on the
basis that the cost of performing certain functions vary and that a
large budgetary allocation does not necessarily imply high priority
but may simply imply a necessary but expensive function.
Closely associated with the issue of determining the order of
priorities is that of determining the time frame within which certain
objectives are expected to be achieved. To achieve many objectives
-------
11-33 ,
in a shorter rather than a longer period of time will require in-
creased resources. In addition, many objectives are of necessity
of a sequential rather than simultaneous nature — that is, one must
be completed before another can be. Thus to place a time constraint
upon achieving one objective implies a time constraint upon achiev-
ing another.
The specific action the manpower planner should take in compiling
this step would include tracing the legislative authority and man-
dates for his or her agency, determining the objectives of the agency,
translating these objectives into general and specific manpower ob-
jectives, determining manpower priorities, and determining the time
frame within which objectives are to be attained.
At this point in the execution of this substep, it is necessary
for us to display in tabular form some concepts that we have not yet
introduced or fully developed. Rather than disrupt what we consider
to be the logical flow of our analysis, we shall, however, mention
certain items that the manpower planner should document that involve
concepts that are to be developed later.
In order to obtain a feeling for the dimensions of the organ-
ization's commitment and past experience with manpower planning, the
planner should document the budgetary history of the organization
obtaining as much detail on this history as is possible. Such in-
formation as would be desirable is displayed in the suggested format
contained in Tables 11-17 and 11-18.
Trends in these data, or their absence, would suggest an in-
creasing, constant, diminishing, or random commitment to manpower
-------
TABLE 11-17
Organization's Budgetary History
(Millions of Dollars)
FEDERAL SHARE
STATE SHARE
LOCAL SHARE
TOTAL
1969
1970
1971
1972
1976
planning, as would any changes in the allocations of the total budget
among the various activities of planning and training. Some caution
should be exercised in using these absolute figures as an index of
the organization's past and current commitment for they should most
appropriately be expressed as a proportion of the organization's total
budget. Expressing such numbers as a proportion of the total budget
would indicate changes in the relative commitment of the organization
toward manpower planning and development activities.
Another important aspect of developing information concerning
the organization's objectives as they pertain to manpower is some
documentation of specific employment characteristics that either the
management has dictated that the manpower planner should seek to attain
or that, in conjunction with management, the manpower planner has
determined would be an appropriate objective. Such objectives may
have to do with target levels of actual employment to be attained
in the organization or some targeted level of shortfalls, vacancies,
-------
TABLE 11-18
Analysis of Past Organization Budgets
Year
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
Budget for
Manpower
Development
and Training
Functions
Asa
Percentage
of
Organization's
Total Budget
Budget
for
Manpower
Planning
As a
Percentage
of
Organization's
Budget
As a
Percentage
of Manpower
Development and
Training Budget
I
LO
un
-------
11-36
turnovers, or a variety of other employment characteristics that
emerge from the measurement of current employment and forecasts of
future employment.
A precise determination of an organization's objectives will not,
under normal conditions, be made until information on those charac-
teristics which the organization wishes to enter into its objective
function has been obtained. Thus an objective might eventually be
stated in terms of reducing an employment shortfall in a given occupa-
tion by 50 percent of what it currently is or to some absolute number
expressed as a percentage of current employment. In order to have
such an objective, however, it is necessary to know what the current
shortfall rate is. For this reason the exact determination of ob-
jectives will have to be done sequentially and would follow the
measurement of current and the forecasting of future employment
characteristics. For this reason there is some logic in having the
manpower planner determine the organization's objectives after the
measurement and forecasting of future employment tasks have been com-
pleted. We prefer, however, to cover the determination of objectives
in some detail in this step.
The problems associated with needing yet-to-be-obtained infor-
mation for determining specific objectives is somewhat reduced when
the repetitive nature of the manpower planning process is acknowledged
If such repetition occurs, general outlines of the organization's
objectives will usually remain stable from one year to another, and
only the specific targeted levels of whatever is being planned for
will be included. Furthermore, knowledge about objectives is valuable
-------
11-37
in determining what measurements and forecasts are to be emphasized
in subsequent steps.
Examples of the type of objectives and the format in which they
can be displayed are illustrated in Tables 11-19 and 11-20.
SUMMARY
A thorough knowledge of the organization for which the planning
is being conducted is indispensable if its manpower issues are to be
approached in a rational manner. Such knowledge will not be easy to
obtain. This is especially true when manpower planning is first
introduced into an organization. The initial completion of this step
will be a difficult and time-consuming activity. As the planning
cycle is repeated, however, many of the activities associated with
this step will be in the form of updating previously obtained infor-
mation.
If an efficient data storage and retrieval system is developed
and maintained, the annual task of updating the information relevant
to this and succeeding steps will be made much simpler. Most of the
tables and figures that we have presented in this chapter, and will
present in subsequent chapters, are intended to serve not only as an
immediate aid in consummating a particular step but also as a system
for storing specific data. In certain organizations now, and in many
organizations In due time, it is possible to store information upon
computers. This will not be a task that the manpower planner will
need to do personally. The planner will be required, however, to
provide information to computer programmers regarding how he or she
would like the information stored. The suggestions we have provided
-------
TABLE 11-19
Specific Manpower Planning Objectives
for 1975
Occupation
Desired
Employment
Level
Desired
Vacancy
Rate
Desired
Quit
Rate
Desired
Discharge
Rate
Desired
Number
Trained
Upgrade Update
TABLE 11-20
Alternative Specific Manpower
Planning Objectives
i
LO
OD
Percentage Change
Occupation
Employment
Level
Desired
Vacancy
Rate
Desired
Quit
Rate
Discharge
Rate
Desired Number
Trained
Upgrade Update
-------
11-39
in this chapter, as embodied in the various tables and figures,
should provide ample instruction to the programmers on these matters
SELECTED REFERENCES
Michigan Department of Natural Resources. Manpower Planning for
Municipal Wastewater Treatment: Michigan 1972-1976.Municipal
Wastewater Division, Bureau of Water Management, Michigan De-
partment of Natural Resources, (March 197*0*
New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. New York
State Manpower Study for Municipal Wastewater Treatment. New
York: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation,
(August 197*0-
Wright, Colin, et al. Manpower Planning for Wastewater Treatment
Plants. Washington, D.C.: Office of Water Programs and
Operations, Environmental Protection Agency.
-------
12.
MEASUREMENT OF CURRENT
EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS
In this chapter we discuss the issues related to the execution
of step 2 in the manpower planning process: the measurement of
current employment characteristics. The purpose of completing this
step is for the manpower planner to obtain information concerning
the dimensions of current employment (or staffing) within the or-
ganization. Measurements conducted in the execution of this step
are to be used as a basis for estimating future manpower requirements,
for assessing current and expected manpower problems, and as a data
base for performance control.
It would seem only logical that if the purpose of a particular
activity is to assess current and future manpower problems and re-
quirements, the process begin by an assessment, both in numbers and
quality, of current personnel. This task can be viewed as consist-
ing of two parts: (1) obtaining an "inventory" of current personnel,
and (2) measuring such current employment characteristics as employ-
ment shortfalls, vacancies, and so forth.
INVENTORY OF CURRENT PERSONNEL
The inventory would obtain information on the occupations of
current personnel within the organization and the basic skills re-
quired to perform adequately in those occupations. It will be useful
to obtain similar information on the people in each occupation. The
purpose of such data would be to see, for example, whether those
occupying a position have the qualifications demanded by that position,
12-1
-------
12-2
Other information that may also be collected in such an inventory
would be the age and sex of those occupying the particular position.
The age is of particular value in estimating certain aspects of
future employment, since retirements in many organizations may be
an important aspect of employment that gives rise to the necessity
of recruiting new employees.
Obtaining an inventory of current personnel could, in a some-
what ideal sense, serve as a basis for measuring the performance
of current personnel. Thus if we can measure the output of the
organization and relate it to the characteristics of the current
personnel, we might in the future be able to improve such perform-
ance by hiring individuals having different characteristics. This
is a difficult process, however, because in many aspects of the
type of manpower planning in which we are engaged we are not pro-
ducing something that is equivalent or analogous to that of a pro-
duction line, which has a tangible product and experiments with the
qualities of personnel that can make measurable changes in the output
Not only is it difficult to measure performance and thereby assess
how to improve it, but in many cases external forces impinge upon
those things that the public sector does. Thus, for example, in
a production line the external forces are in many ways, although not
completely, controlled. If, however, we were to consider crime pro-
tection as output, it would be affected not only by the number of
police officers employed, a controllable event, but also by changes
in those external forces which might tend to increase crime such as
poverty, for example, that is not controllable by the agency in
question — the police department.
-------
We have assumed that the basic data relevant to determining the
inventory of current personnel have been collected in the comple-
tion of step 1. What is required in step 2 is to display certain
aspects of that inventory in a meaningful way for both the deter-
mination of specific objectives and for the solution of possible
manpower problems. What we suggest in this step is that certain
comparisons between the desired and actual characteristics of employ-
ment be made. Although there are many comparisons that could be
made between what current personnel are like and what an ideal compo-
sition of personnel would be, we emphasize only one for purposes of
illustration. What we choose is that which seems to be the most
important for the majority of public organizations: extent of train-
ing or general job preparation.
Each employee should be identified according to the extent of
her or his preparation. We shall consider only training in this
category, although other dimensions are possible. The level and
type of actual training should be compared with desired training.
We should be mindful, however, that written descriptions do not
always adequately reflect the ability of individuals to do the job
in which they are employed. Thus we may find individuals who have
the necessary training and who do not do the job well and also people
without training who do as well. In the absence of concrete measures
of employee efficiency, judgmental factors will enter and other im-
perfect measures adopted. For our purposes and at the present time
we deal with some quantifiable aspects of these measures and there-
fore suggest a format similar to that expressed in Table 12-1.
-------
TABLE 12-1
Training Deficiencies of Current Employees
Name of
Employee
John Doe
Jim Smith
George Kutz
Occupation
Operator I
Operator I
Operator I
Type of Plant
5
7
4
Type of
Training
Received
None
C.I
I.I
Type of
Training
Desired
OJT.l
OJT.l, S.2
OJT.l, S.2
Training
Deficiency
OJT.l
S.2
None
rv>
I
-------
12-5
The illustrative information shown in the table assumes that
the manpower planner, in conjunction with the training officer and
with the help of occupational descriptions, can make certain quan-
titative comparisons among different training programs. It assumes,
for example, that a given employee can, according to the general
skill she or he brings to the occupation, be identified according
to the type of training that she or he should receive to efficiently
occupy her or his current position. The table also presupposes that
records exist from which information can be obtained as to the amount
of training each employee has actually received. Finally, it is
assumed that the required and actual training can be identified by
courses and that quantitative comparisons be made.
In Table 12-1 we have provided some sample data with abbrevia-
tions for the types of training. These training types are spelled
out in more detail in Table 12-2 with Table 12-1 using abbreviated
notations. For example, OJT.l refers to on-the-job training program
of type 1, while S.2 refers to the second type of special training
programs. There is a presumption that in the case, for example, of
Jim Smith, the difference between OJT.l and S.2 (the desired train-
ing) and C.I (the actual training) is S.2. This is to imply that
some judgment has been made that C.I and OJT.l are equivalent under
those circumstances reflected in Jim Smith's personnel record. Mak-
ing such judgments will be a difficult task and one that will require
input from the training officer.
The information on training deficiency for each individual should
subsequently be aggregated so that the total training needs can be
-------
12-6
TABLE 12-2
Training Required for Current Operators I
Year
Number
to be
Trained
359
Type of Training
OJT
1
250
2
40
Institutional
1
5
2
46
Coupled/OJT
1
Si
2
^^
Special
1
89
2
w
Total
Number
of
Training
Slots
6/7
-------
12-7
displayed in a format suggested by Table 12-2. This information,
and more yet to be obtained, provide the basis for determining the
organization's training effort. Much more will be said on this
point when we discuss step 4.
Measurement of Employment Characteristics
Another aspect of ascertaining the dimensions of current em-
ployment is to measure the levels of the different types of employ-
ment that may exist within the organization and their various dynamic
elements. In many respects this is a function similar to that of
conducting an inventory, although for reasons that will become ob-
vious subsequently, we wish to keep these two subfunctions separate
in our explanations and analyses. In many organizations there are
three general types of employment that the manpower planner could
measure: (1) recommended employment, (2) budgeted employment, and
(3) actual employment. Recommended employment is that employment
delineated by staffing guides or manning tables and in general may
be defined as that level of employment that has been suggested
(through consultation, as discussed in the material in chapter 7
on human engineering) as being necessary for the efficient operation
of the functions under examination.
As we have mentioned previously, there are shortcomings in such
a concept insofar as it ignores the effect of wages on the relative
combinations of inputs used in the production process. Tire bases
for these shortcomings are illustrated in Figure 12.1. In this
figure we display wages and quantity of labor on the axes as we did
in our discussion of the demand and supply of labor in chapter 3.
-------
12-*
Wages
\ Quantity of
x^ labor
FIGURE 12.1. Illustration of Recommended Employment
The level of recommended employment we have illustrated as resulting
from the demand curve is noted as R,. Note that the quantity de-
manded Is independent of the wage rate; that is, the same quantity
is recommended (sometimes the terminology is "required") regardless
of what the wage happens to be.
If the "normal" or "effective" demand curve were D, (i.e., the
demand that will actually be in force if the organization adheres
to the principles of efficiency as discussed in chapters 3 and 10),
then the effective demand for labor and the recommended level of
employment will be equal only when the wage is W,. At higher wages
such as Wp the quantity of workers demanded would be Qo, smaller
than the recommended level. For smaller wages than W,, such as W_,
a larger number of workers — or Q_ — would be demanded.
-------
12-9
Notice that in the preceding analysis we have said nothing
about the supply of labor. This complication, in the presence of
recommended employment, will be introduced subsequently.
A second employment concept is budgeted employment . This con-
cept refers to that level of employment provided for in the organi-
zation's budget. Such budgets may exist in one of several ways.
There may be an allocation of an aggregate dollar amount to employ-
ment, leaving some discretion to the manager as to its allocation
among several occupations as determined by his or her perceived needs
and the prevailing wage rate for certain classifications of employees
In other cases both the budget and wage may be predetermined for
each occupation. This latter method thus defines the maximum number
of "budgeted positions." When the wage is not specified, as in the
former case, then the relationship between the level of budgeted
employment and the wage is as depicted in Figure 12.2. The curves
are rectangular hyperboles which have the characteristic that all
of its subtended rectangles are of equal area. Thus at a wage of
WQ the quantity QQ could be employed, while at W, the level Q, could
be employed, with WQQ0 equaling W-^. The curve labeled B is for
an aggregate budget of, say, $100,000. The curve labeled B is
for a larger budget, say $200,000.
If the wage had been predetermined, we would have an illustra-
tion such as the one displayed in Figure 12.3. Note that the axes
are labeled differently — the change being in the substi;ution
of "size of budget" for "wages paid." In this diagram angle a
Q
denotes the wage rate. Thus if an represents wage rate W , the
\J
-------
12-10
Wages paid
A !
$200,000--
$100,000--
Wr
WH . . . _
Quantity
of labor
(budgeted
levels)
FIGURE 12.2. Levels of Budgeted Employment as Determined
by Wages Paid
Size of budget
Quantity
of labor
(budgeted
positors)
FIGURE 12.3. Budgeted Employment When Wages Are Fixed
-------
12-11
graph tells us what size budget is required to employ a given quan-
tity of labor. Thus if Qn is required, the budget must be B_. For
a larger wage, noted by angle a^, a larger budget, B, , is required
if Qn is to be the budgeted quantity.
It is often the case that budgeted employment differs from the
recommended level of employment. One function of the manpower plan-
ner is to ascertain why such differences exist. Do the differences
exist because of the allocation determined by the manager, based
upon disagreement or dissatisfaction with those levels of employ-
ment recommended in the staffing guides? Or is it simply a matter
of inadequate aggregate funds or the incorrect wage that is required
to attract the desirable type of personnel? In some cases the staf-
fing guides are only suggestive and allow for some margin of dif-
ference, but the relevant question should be whether the budgeted
employment falls within this margin of error. If so, then it is
truly a guide. If not, then the manpower planner must look else-
where for an explanation.
The third type of employment is actual employment and is simply
the number of people employed within the organization. This level
Is that which under normal conditions is determined by the inter-
section of the supply and demand curves as illustrated in chapter 3-
In other circumstances, it will be that level determined by the
interaction of budgetary and supply factors, as we shall illustrate
shortly.
The difference between recommended and budgeted employment we
refer to as a shortfall and particularly as a budgeted shortfall.
-------
12-12
The difference between budgeted employment and actual employment
is also a shortfall, but we shall refer to it as a vacancy. The
sum of the budgeted shortfall and vacancy can both be used as some
measure of existing problems, depending upon the nature of the ob-
jectives, or may be stated as problems the objective of which man-
power planning is to overcome. In many cases the absolute value
of the shortfall is misleading, and therefore the expression of such
shortfalls in proportional terms is advocated.
In those cases where only the budgeted amount is given and the
wage is not set by the budgetary process and the resulting rectangu-
lar hyperbole becomes a form of an effective demand curve. We il-
lustrate this, with its implications for the possible differences
between budgeted and recommended employment, in Figure 12.4. Given
supply function S,, which depicts the number of individuals offering
their services at alternative wage rates, a budget of B, allows QR
units of labor to be employed with QR the recommended employment
level. Difference (Q_ - Q_,) is the "budget shortfall."
K D
The situation becomes slightly more complicated when the budge-
tary process fixes both the wage and the budget, thereby fixing a
given number of budget positions. We illustrate one such situation
in Figure 12.5. The wage and quantity fixed by the budgetary proc-
ess are noted as Wn and QD respectively. Demand curve D, is that
D Jj X
which would be in effect if the organization were being run on the
basis of the principles of efficiency as discussed in chapters 3
and 10. If the "free play of market forces" were allowed, the wage
would be W-, and the quantity employed Q, . At wage WB, quantity QA
-------
Wages
A
Q,
12^13
R
Quantity
of Labor
FIGURE 12.4. Relationship between Budgeted and
Recommended Employment
Quantity
of Labor
FIGURE 12.5. Relationship between Vacancies, Budget
Shortfall, and Employment Shortfall
-------
12-14
could be hired (we are keeping constant the presumed quality of
the employee). Difference (Qg - QA) would be vacancies and dif-
ference (QR - QB) budgeted shortfall. Their sum, (QR - Q.), is
the employment shortfall.
Position B in Figure 12.5, the point determined by fixed budget
and fixed wage, could of course be located elsewhere in the figure.
If it were on line R, , there would be a situation where budgeted
and recommended employment were equal and there would be no budget
shortfall. If point B were on supply curve S-, , there would be no
vacancy but there would be a budget shortfall. If B were to the
left of S-, , not only would there be no vacancies but there would
be more people seeking work than there were budgeted positions —
a condition of "excess supply" of labor.
Further economic analysis of these different employment concepts
could be undertaken but at considerable risk of obfuscation. We
shall desist from our graphical analysis for the time being. We
shall have an occasion to expand upon the preceding in chapter 14
when we discuss the analysis of manpower problems.
DYNAMIC ASPECTS OF EMPLOYMENT;
TERMINATIONS AND ACCESSIONS
Another important aspect of the measurement of employment is
to capture the dynamic aspects of employment. Within the employment
process of most organizations few things are static. Employees come
and go for a variety of reasons. A twofold general classification
of the dynamic aspects of employment would be terminations and
accessions. Terminations are simply the number of employees that
-------
12-15
leave a particular occupation within a given period, while accessions
are the number of people that enter a particular occupation within
the period. Terminations consist of several components. Individuals
leave a particular occupation because of death, retirement, discharge,
promotion, transfer, or quits.
Accessions, which measure the sources from which new employees
are recruited, also have several components. An individual may come
to a particular job from what we have referred to as an "external"
labor source. Employees in a particular occupation may come to that
position from elsewhere in the organization — from the "internal"
labor market. This change in occupation we refer to as a transfer.
Transfers may be further delineated according to whether they are
an upgrade or downgrade transfer, defined either as to the skills
required or to the salary paid, or horizontal transfer where the
person has similar skills, similar merit system classifications, or
similar salary. A schematic view of these dynamic aspects of employ-
ment is shown in Figure 12.6.
In delineating the functions that fall within this step, we
have decided to separate it from that function that occurs in a
later step, namely the projecting of future employment characteristics
To some the separation may be artificial, for they would view the
measurement and projection as part of the same step. We prefer,
however, to separate the acts of data collection and measurement of
current employment and include within this step the gathering of those
data that will be used later as a basis for projecting future
characteristics.
-------
- Transfers into — upgrade and horizontal •
Training Programs
External Supply
-New hires-
Training Programs
New hires
Transfers into —
upgrade and horizontal
Training Programs
Training Programs
Occupation no. 1
Transfers
out
Separations
Upgrade
(within plant)
Training Programs
Occupation no. 2
To other plants
Separations Transfers
Horizontal
Training Programs
Upgrade
Traning Programs
h->
ro
I
FIGURE 12.6. Termination and Accession Processes
-------
12-17
From the general knowledge Individual planners have of the
agency (obtained from executing step 1), they will have some general
and specific notions of what factors affect future manpower require-
ments. Whenever possible (i.e., when such information is quantifi-
able), this information should be collected as part of the data
collection process by which the current employment characteristics
are measured. The special tasks that the planner will have to under-
take in measuring current employment will be to decide which data
to collect, how to collect the data, and the format in which the data
will be collected and stored.
MANPOWER DATA COLLECTION
We have already provided considerable information in our chap-
ters on training, labor economics, and human engineering to guide
manpower planners in determining the data that should be collected —
or, alternatively, the characteristics of current employment that
they should measure. At a minimum they should collect data on levels
of employment, including recommended, budgeted, and actual. Since
part- and full-time employment might exist it will be necessary to
convert total employment into full-time equivalent employment. When
training needs are estimated, the organization will often wish part-
time employees to have the same training as full-time employees;
hence such data should be collected and maintained. This information
should be collected for each occupation and type of employment within
a public agency. The planner should also collect data relevant to
employment terminations and accessions. The components of these
-------
12-18
general classifications have also been defined previously. Wage
structure data should be collected. Due to the problems of obtain-
ing accurate information, it will be necessary to obtain minimum,
maximum, and average wages.
Methods of Data Collection
All of the information can be collected on a survey instrument
the general nature of which is illustrated by a questionnaire data
form used in manpower planning programs for wastewater treatment
plants. This instrument we illustrate as Table 12-3. Note that in
addition to the preceding information to be collected, information
on the source of employment is also required. Thus wastewater treat-
ment plants differ according to their type of treatment, their size,
population group served, and so on; all of this information is col-
lected on the survey instrument or plant data form.
The number of employment sources will to a great extent deter-
mine how employment information is to be collected. If the sources
of employment are large in number and widely dispersed, a question-
naire mailed to the administrative head of that employment center
might well be the only method the manpower office's budget allows.
In many organizations this is not a particularly efficient method
because of the poor return rate. At the other extreme are personal
visits by the manpower planner if the number of plants is small and
not widely dispersed. Intermediate between these two extremes, and
a method that could be used in conjunction with them, is the tele-
phone survey method. When a large number of employment sources exist,
only a sample, as compared to the universe, could be asked to complete
-------
12-19
TABLE 12-3
Wastewater Treatment Plant Data Form
(1972)
1. ESTABLISHMENT NO.
7. TYPE OF TREATMENT CODE
11. NAME AND ADDRESS OF ESTABLISHMENT
OCCUPATION
TOTAL (ALL OCCUPATIONS)
SUPERINTENDENT
ASSISTANT SUPERINTENDENT
OPERATIONS SUPERVISOR
SHIFT FOREMAN
OPERATOR II
OPERATOR 1
MAINTENANCE SUPERVISOR
MECHANICAL MAINTENANCE
FOREMAN
MECHANIC II
MECHANIC 1
MAINTENANCE HELPER
ELECTRICIAN II
ELECTRICIAN 1
CHEMIST
LABORATORY TECHNICIAN
STOREKEEPER
CLERK TYPIST
AUTOMOTIVE EQUIPMENT
OPERATOR
CUSTODIAN
PAINTER
LABORER
OTHER
LINE NUMBER
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
RECOMMENDED
a
RECOMMENDED
FULL-TIME
b
RECOMMENDED
FULL-TIME
EQUIVALENTS
c
2 STATE CODE
3. STATE NAME
8. TYPE OF TREATMENT NAME
BUDGETED
TOTAL
d
BUDGETED
FULL-TIME
e
BUDGETED
FULL-TIME
EQUIVALENTS
f
ACTUAL
EMPLOYMENT
g
ACTUAL
FULL-TIME
h
ACTUAL
FULL-TIME
EQUIVALENTS
'
ACTUAL EMPLOY-
MENT YEAR AGO
1
ACTUAL FULL-TIME
EMPLOYMENT YEAR
AGO
k
-------
-
3
?
o
TJ
£
-
«
r*
C
<
5
X
<
N
EMPLOYMENT EQUIV-
ALENT YEAR AGO
TOTAL
TOTAL
QUITS
DISCHARGES
DEATH/
RETIREMENT
SEPARATIONS
TRANSFERS OUT
TOTAL
NEW HIRES
TOTAL
UPGRADE
HORIZONTAL
TRANSFERS 1
Z
H
O
MINIMUM
WAGE
MAXIMUM
WAGE
AVERAGE
WAGE
TERMINATIONS 1
ACCESSIONS
9. POPULATION GROUP SERVED 1
p
§
r
LION GALLONS PER DAY
&
. COUNTY CODE E
. SMSA CODE
Ol
m
«
z
0
o
0
m
td
ro
I
OJ
o
o
ct
H-
ro
I
rv>
o
-------
12-21
the data form questionnaire. The planner should seek advice on
the appropriate sampling procedures to follow by consulting a
statistician within the organization or a textbook that covers sam-
pling techniques.
Completion of the plant data form provides information on the
levels of employment, terminations, accessions, and wages for each
source of employment. This information should be accumulated on
an organizational basis. In many cases the relevant area will be
coterminous with that of the state; thus, after each source of em-
ployment within the agency has been obtained, this information should
be compiled on what we might refer to as a "state data form." Such
a form would be identical to the plant data form, except for the
absence of those data which identify the type and location of the
plant. Upon completing the aggregation just suggested, the man-
power planner will have obtained a picture of the staffing pattern
for the state system.
For greater clarity in exposition, we shall divide the previously
introduced data form into two parts and provide numerical examples.
The first part is that dealing with levels of employment, while the
second deals with the turnovers in employment.
Levels of Employment
Columns a, b, and c in Table 12-4 show that the level of recom-
mended employment for operators is 1,100. This level consists of
nine hundred full-time and two hundred part-time (not specifically
See "supplementary information" at end of chapter.
-------
12-22
TABLE 12-4
State Wastewater Treatment Plant Personnel Data Form
(December 31, 1974, Example B)
1. ESTABLISHMENT NO.
7 TYPE OF TREATMENT CODE
11. NAME AND ADDRESS OF ESTABLISHMENT
OCCUPATION
TOTAL (ALL OCCUPATIONS)
SUPERINTENDENT
ASSISTANT SUPERINTENDENT
OPERATIONS SUPERVISOR
SHIFT FOREMAN
OPERATOR II
OPERATOR 1
MAINTENANCE SUPERVISOR
^-*»-» — •**Jr*- \.J-XSjiii/ww
LINE NUMBER
01
02
03
04
OS
06
07
°*J
RECOMMENDED
a
1 100
FV-»
RECOMMENDED
FULL-TIME
b
9OO
^^~^~
RECOMMENDED
FULL-TIME
EQUIVALENTS
c
1000
*"^
8 TYPE OF TREATMENT NAME
9. POPUL
f
BUDGETED
TOTAL
d
950
BUDGETED
FULL-TIME
e
800
BUDGETED
FULL TIME
EQUIVALENTS
f
880
f^J~^ \
•^ W
ACTUAL
EMPLOYMENT
g
900
ACTUAL
FULL-TIME
h
750
x"1^
ACTUAL
FULL-TIME
EQUIVALENTS
<
820
"-— v-
1 ACTUAL EMPLOY-
MENT YEAR AGO
1
850
TACTUAL FULL-TIME
EMPLOYMENT YEAR
| AGO
k
750
P ACTUAL FULL-TIME
MPLOYMENT EQUIV-
ALENT YEAR AGO
1
780
v**v«^-_^— — f ~*
7
I
i
/
i
<
-------
12-23
full-time equivalents. Two hundred workers working on the average
of one-third time would constitute about 67 full-time equivalents,
and so on.
However, while these numbers are recommended totals, budgetary
limitations have been assumed to be effective, as seen in columns
d, e, and f. In these columns we see that the total number of bud-
geted positions is 950. This level consists of eight hundred full-
time and 150 part-time operators, constituting eighty full-time
equivalents, for a total of 880 full-time equivalent Operators I.
In our exposition, by using hypothetical data, we have assumed
that 1975 is a year in which, while there are labor surpluses in
many occupations, we have not been able to fill all of the budgeted
positions with qualified personnel. This implies that actual employ-
ment as of December 31, 1975, was (as shown in columns g, h, and i)
nine hundred Operators I, of which 750 were full time, and 150 part
time, constituting seventy full-time equivalents, for a total of
820 full-time equivalent Operators I.
We have determined that the actual employment for the previous
year was 850 Operators I, consisting of 750 full-time, and one
hundred part-time operators, constituting thirty full-time equiva-
lents for a total of 780 full-time equivalent Operators I. These
figures are shown in columns j, k, and 1.
Turnovers In Employment
In Table 12-5 we show the turnover data from the state data form,
In 1975 we note thirty terminations for the state, consisting of
twenty separations from the plants and ten transfers out. Of the
-------
12-24
TABLE 12-5
Terminations and Accessions
(197*0
OCCUPATION
TOTAL (ALL OCCUPATIONS)
SUPERINTENDENT
ASSISTANT SUPERINTENDENT
OPERATIONS SUPERVISOR
SHIFT FOREMAN
OPERATOR II
OPERATOR 1
MAINTENANCE SUPERVISOR
MECH ^XsCAL MAI h'x— y*1 ANCC
IE
UJ
m
z
D
Z
UJ
Z
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
I-"**
TOTAL
m
30
-/•
TERMINATIONS
TOTAL
n
20
^^
SEPARATIONS
t
o
o
10
-^
DISCHARGES
P
4
^—^-
DEATH/
RETIREMENT
q
6
TRANSFERS OUT
r
10
N^
ACCESSIONS
TOTAL
s
25
w
UJ
IE
I
S
u>
z
t
/5
\
TRANSFERS INTO
TOTAL
u
10
s*
UPGRADE
V
6
x
HORIZONTAL
w
4
*— - - -
MINIMUM
WAGE
x
*2. W
^\
^
MAXIMUM
WAGE
V
^3.533
^~-^
AVERAGE
WAGE
z
^/'^C?
^
twenty separations, ten were quits, four were discharges, and six
were deaths or retirements.
In columns s through w, we note that there were 25 accessions,
consisting of fifteen new hires and ten transfers from elsewhere.
-------
12-25 .
The ten transfers consisted of six workers who were being upgraded
from a lower level position and four who were transferred horizon-
tally from a different occupation of the same grade level.
Measurement of "Transfers"
There is a major problem in the definition of the term "transfer."
To the supervisor of a single plant, the term will most likely mean
a movement within the plant. An upgrade will consist of movement
from, say, Operator I to Operator II within the plant, while a hori-
zontal transfer will be movement from one occupational grouping to
another, but at the same grade or pay level. If, for example, a
Mechanic I is considered to be the same grade as that of an Opera-
tor II, if the former should become an Operator II, it would be a
horizontal transfer.
While these are the definitions which the supervisor of a single
plant might normally have in mind, the supervisor of a highly coor-
dinated multiplant system (such as in a large city) might look upon
the term "transfers" as including in addition to intraplant move-
ment, personnel movement from one plant to another within the system,
whether horizontal or upgrading.
The problem becomes more complex with an areawide system, which
is the concern of the state manpower planner. Actually, in most
states, a statewide coordinated system does not exist, rather there
are a number of independent plants and system. From the state's
point of view, with its own training implications, a transfer would
probably be looked upon as movement not only within a plant and be-
tween plants within a highly coordinated city or metropolitan system,
-------
12-26
but also a movement — whether horizontal or upgrading -- among
individual systems and plants throughout the state. Also from the
state's point of view, this is the most appropriate definition.
To come up with an aggregate state figure of transfers that is mean-
ingful, however, the separate plants and systems must, in completing
their plant data forms, use the expanded definition; namely, that
a transfer refers to both intra- and interplant movements. (Prom
the point of view of national manpower planners, even this last ex-
panded definition is inadequate. To derive meaningful national
aggregate figures on transfers, the definition of "transfer" needs
expanding to include movement between plants in any location in the
country.)
If meaningful aggregate figures are to be developed, there must
be common definitions of "occupations," "promotion ladders," and
"grade classification." This also means that the supervisors of
individual plants must accept or at least apply these commonalities
as they complete their data forms. They must also have the expanded
definition of the term "transfer" and be able to apply it ... which
may pose some difficulty. What it requires is that some attempt be
made to keep records on where each worker who "separates" finds new
employment. Does one leave the industry altogether, or merely move
to another plant? And what grade does one move to? A record must
also be maintained of where each new hire comes from occupationally.
What was the individual's occupation and grade before being hired?
The last named task could, of course, be readily accomplished at
the time of employment, but the former task of determining where a
-------
12-27
"separatee" will go is much more difficult and requires some form
of follow-up in which individual plant managers would have little
interest. Unless the expanded definition is used, however, there
will be gross misstatements of transfers within the state or national
system.
Wage Data
Referring again to the data shown in Table 12-5 -- we observe
that the minimum wage was $3-50 per hour, while the maximum was
$4.50 per hour. As more employees were closer to the upper end of
the scale, the average wage turned out to be $4.25 per hour. The
aggregate average wage for the state could be computed by multiplying
plant averages by the number of Operators I employed in each plant,
adding the resultant figures for all plants, and dividing by the
total number of Operators I. An illustration of such a process for
three plants is shown in Table 12-6.
TABLE 12-6
Q
Averaging of Wage Data
Average Number of Total
Plant Wage Operator I Wage
A $4.00 6 $24
B 3-75 5 17
C 4.25 7 29
$71
.00
.75
.75
.50
Q
State average wage is $3-97-
-------
12-28
ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF EMPLOYMENT
While Table 12-3 has data on total, full-time, and full-time
equivalent employment, we shall limit our consideration here to
total employment. The three alternative measures of total employ-
ment are seen in Table 12-7. Under an ideal situation, all of these
would be equal. We should budget for and hire the recommended total.
In practice, these measures are seldom equal. From columns a, d,
and g of the state data form in Table 12-3, we can determine the
appropriate aggregate totals.
TABLE 12-7
Alternative Measures of Employment
(1974)
Occupation Recommended Budgeted Actual
Total (all occupations)
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator II
Operator I 1,100 950 900
Maintenance supervisor
The process of recommending, budgeting, and filling positions
can be a complicated one. Manufacturers of equipment and consulting
engineers may come up with recommended staffing guides for given
equipment or processes with given capacity. Plant superintendents
or other government officials are not necessarily bound by these
guides, however, and may alter them to conform more closely to local
experiences and administrative realities. Recommended employment
-------
12-29
is often a figure agreed upon by several governmental bodies that
are involved with the work of the organization. The recommended
number of employees shown in plant data forms will probably consist
of such adjusted figures which are in turn adjusted further by the
funding authorities who determine the level of budgeted employment.
Budgeted positions are usually less in number than recommended posi-
tions because of budgetary restraints which are normal to most public
operations.
Actual employment may be more or less than the budgeted positions
In a time of manpower shortages, all budgeted positions may not be
filled; this might be especially true of highly skilled workers.
In the absence of certification requirements, it will be easier to
fill positions, although there would be a temptation to fill them
with unqualified personnel. On the other hand, in times of labor
surplus, there is increased likelihood that budgeted positions will
be filled, and with qualified personnel. In fact, some workers may
be overqualifled for their position. It is also possible that bud-
geted positions may be cut below actual employment in a period of
budget restraint, with the understanding that some people will be
laid off or fired, or where job security is so strong that natural
attrition will take care of current expenses, eventually reducing
actual employment to budgeted employment.
SHORTFALLS AND SHORTFALL RATES
Prom the data in Table 12-7, the planner can determine the extent
to which the organization is falling short of certain goals, as
illustrated by the three shortfall concepts: budget shortfalls,
-------
12-30
vacancy, and employment shortfalls. The budget shortfall measures
how far below the recommended figures the budgeted positions fall
and is determined by subtracting the number of budgeted positions
from the recommended positions; i.e., 1,100 minus 950, or 150. Va-
cancies consist of the budgeted positions not filled, and employ-
ment positions are determined by subtracting actual employment from
the number of positions budgeted; i.e., 950 minus 900, or 50. The
employment shortfall measures how far short actual employment is
from recommended employment; i.e., 1,100 minus 900, or 200. An
'alternative way to compute this last figure is to add budget short-
falls and vacancies (150 plus 50). These calculations are summarized
in Table 12-8.
TABLE 12-8
Shortfalls and Vacancies
(197^)
Budget Employment
Occupation Shortfall Vacancies Shortfalls
Total (all occupations)
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator II 150 50 200
Operator I
Maintenance supervisor
When absolute numbers at different scales of magnitude are com-
pared, a "scale effect" obscures the meaningfulness of the compari-
sons. To illustrate: The difference of "1" unit when dealing with
-------
12-31
a magnitude of "10" is much more important than the difference of
"1" when dealing with a magnitude of "1,000." To eliminate this
scale effect, we can convert absolute numbers into rates by using
a common base or denominator. The most appropriate base for our
purposes in computing shortfall rates in actual employment which,
it will be recalled, is assumed to be nine hundred.
For later analytical purposes, we want to compute three rates:
budget shortfall, vacancy, and employment shortfall. To obtain
these rates, we divide each of the absolute shortfall figures on
Table 12-8 by nine hundred; i.e., 150 4- 900 (budget shortfall rates),
50 T 900 (vacancy rate), and 200 - 900 (employment shortfall rate).
These are summarized in Table 12-9.
TABLE 12-9
Shortfall and Vacancy Rates,
with Actual Employment as a Base
(197^)
Budget Short- Vacancy Employment
Occupation fall Rate Rate Shortfall Rate
Total (all occupations)
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator II
Operator I 16>7 5 g 22 2
Maintenance supervisor
-------
12-32
TERMINATIONS AND ACCESSIONS
AND THEIR RATES
As already mentioned, it is important to the state manpower
planner that he or she has a sense of the dynamics of employment.
The detail of some of the more relevant dynamic aspects of employ-
ment is furnished by an understanding of terminations and accessions.
Terminations consist of separations from and transfers out of a
given occupation or position. Accessions consist of new hires and
transfers into a given occupation or position. The relationships
of these items are summarized in Table 12-10.
TABLE 12-10
Terminations and Accessions
(197*0
1. ESTABLISHMENT NO. \
, )
4. COUNTY CODE
7. TYPE OF TREATMENT CODE 1 \OPULATIONGROUPSERVED
V
5. SMSA CODE 6. BASIN CODE
10. MILLION GALLONS PER DAY
11. NAME AND ADDRESS OF ESTABL >
OCCUPATION
TOTAL (ALL OCCUPATIONS)
SUPERINTENDENT
ASSISTANT SUPERINTENDENT
OPERATIONS SUPERVISOR
SHIFT FOREMAN
OPERATOR II
OPERATOR I
MAINTENANCE SUPERVISOR
LINE NUMBER
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
v~.*tr
i ~
RECOMMENDED
ALENi , — «*{G'C
_!3 V
_j
\
i i
f{
1 ,
> \
•^
TERMINATIONS
TOTAL
m
30
SEPARATIONS
TOTAL
n
20
^^
i-
D
O
o
JO
*~~~^
DISCHARGES
p
4
»»—
DEATH/
RETIREMENT
q
6
TRANSFERS OUT
r
10
s-S*
ACCESSIONS
TOTAL
s
2£
^
w
111
cr
I
z
LU
z
t
IS
^"^>
TRANSFERS INTO
TOTAL
u
10
* •- — .
UPGRADE
V
6
x"
~s
HORIZONTAL
w
4
•~~^»_ -•*
MINIMUM
WAGE
X
— -*
MAXIMUM
WAGE
V
,^^
(AVERAGE
WAGE
z
V-
V
-------
12-33
The figures from the state data form are easily transferred,
columns m through r being moved into their respective termination
columns in Table 12-10, and columns s through w being transferred
into their respective accession columns. No additional calculations
are needed for this step, unless individual plants are not expected
to furnish figures for the totals columns (m, n, s, u), in which
case these computations would be made by the state manpower planner.
As already discussed, the use of absolute numbers sometimes
creates problems when used for comparison purposes. Therefore it
is useful to convert these figures into rates, using a common base
such as current actual employment, i.e., dividing each number by
nine hundred. This is summarized in Table 12-11.
Additional bases could be selected by the experienced manpower
planner, depending upon what he or she is looking for. The most
useful alternative base would be to use total terminations and
accessions, thereby allowing the components of each of these to
be expressed as a percentage of their total. Performing this type
of calculation results in the data that are shown in Table 12-12.
Thus quits, for example, represent 33-3 percent of terminations,
while upgrades represent 24 percent of accessions.
DISAGGREGATED TABLES
The tables constructed thus far deal with state aggregates.
These are useful in comparing with other state or national aggre-
gate rates. However, as manpower planners become more sophisticated
in their analysis of manpower problems, they will want to disaggre-
gate the totals into meaningful subcategories. For example, they
-------
TABLE 12-11
Termination and Accession Rates,
With Actual Employment as a Base
(1974)
1. ESTABLISHMENT NO i
A COUNTY CODE
7. TYPE OF TREATMENT CODE POPULATION GROUP SERVED
/ \
5. SMSA CODE 6. BASIN CODE
10. MILLION GALLONS PER DAY
11 NAME AND ADDRESS OF ESTABtf 1
OCCUPATION
TOTAL (ALL OCCUPATIONS)
SUPERINTENDENT
ASSISTANT SUPERINTENDENT
OPERATIONS SUPERVISOR
SHIFT FOREMAN
OPERATOR II
OPERATOR 1
MAINTENANCE SUPERVISOR
-.pS ^
LINE NUMBER
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
^ *""
i ^§
1
\
7
v
\
/' 1
)
\
» — .
TERMINATIONS
TOTAL
m
33
^*~
SEPARATIONS
TOTAL
n
2.1
_/-^
in
a
o
I.I
DISCHARGES
P
0.4
-\
DEATH/
RETIREMENT
q
0.7
x~
/
TRANSFERS OUT
r
M
NT— >— y
ACCESSIONS
TOTAL
s
2.fc
• i» ii
NEW HIRES
t
1.7
^^
f —•
TRANSFERS INTO
TOTAL
u
M
•v
UPGRADE
v
0.7
HORIZONTAL
w
0.4
MINIMUM
WAGE
«
^
J^
MAXIMUM
WAGE
V
-v- -^
P,VERAGE
WAGE
z
— -X
TABLE 12-12
Components of Terminations and Accessions
Expressed as Percentage of
Total Terminations and Accessions
(197^)
Occupation
Terminations
Death/
Retirement
Accessions
Transfers
Out
New Horizontal
Hires Upgrade Transfer
Operator I
-------
12-35
may want to compare shortfall rates for a given type of plant or
to compare plants of a given size within the state. To make such
comparisons, they should make additional tables which emphasize
certain characteristics. To illustrate this disaggregating process,
we will use the form shown in Table 12-13- This form is useful in
comparing alternative employment concepts for different types of
plants. Simply listing the levels of employment is not particularly
useful; thus such tables are more meaningful when viewed as working
tables or basic data tables (such as the plant data form) from which
more meaningful calculations and forms can be derived. Perhaps of
some interest are the averages of various employment concepts by
type and size of plants that are shown in Table 12-13.
The data in Table 12-13 inform us that the average recommended
number of Operators I in plants of size 1 in the state is 18.5, the
average budgeted number of Operators I in plants of size 1 in the
state is 16.75, and the average actual number of Operators I in
size 1 plants in the state is 14.75- On the other hand, the average
recommended number of Operators I in treatment type A plants is 20.4,
with 15.2 budgeted and 12.2 actual. The figures in each of these
cells would be obtained by disaggregating all plants of a given size
and type and determining the total for each of the alternative employ-
ment concepts.
The same procedures would be used for comparing budget shortfall,
vacancy, and employment shortfall rates, as well as the various ele-
ments of terminations, separations, and accessions, (Tables 12-14
through 12-16 are used for this purpose.) The data shown in these
-------
12-36
TABLE 12-13
Comparison of Alternative Employment Concepts
by Type and Size of Plant for Operator I
(1975)
Type of
Treatment
A
B
C
D
Average for
given
size
Size of Plant
1
a. |5
b. 13
c II
a. /7
b IS
c. ,3
a. 20
b /8
c 16
a- 22
b. 21
c. /9
a- / 2.5
b. 16.15
c. 14.75
2
a. |7
b. 14
c II
a."
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
3
a 21
b. 15
c 12
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
4
a 23
b (6
c 13
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
5
a. 26
b. /6
c. 14
a. 26
b. 19
c. IS
a. 26
b. 18
c. 14
a. 27
b. 20
c. 15
a.16.25
b. 16.75
c /4.50
Average for
Given
Type
a. 20.4
b.l5.2
c. 12.2
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
Key: a. Recommended-employment
b. Budgeted positions
c. Actual employment
-------
12-37
TABLE 12-14
Comparison of Shortfall and Vacancy Rates
by Type and Size of Plant for Operator I
(1975)
Type of
Treatment
A
B
C
D
Average for
given
size
Size of Plant
1
a. I8.2
b.18.2
c.36.4
a. 15-4
b. 15-4
c. 30.8
a. 12.5
b. 12.5
c. 25. 0
a. 5.3
b. 10-5
c. 15.8
a. 12.85
b. 14.15
c. 27.00
2
a. 27.3
b. 27.3
c. 54.6
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
3
a. 41.7
b. 25.0
c. 66.7
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
4
a. 53.8
b. 23.1
c. 76.9
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
5
a. 57. /
b. 2&.6
c. 85.7
a. 46.7
b. 26.7
c. 73.4
a. 57.1
b. 28.6
c. 85«7
a. 46.7
b. 33.3
c. 80.0
a. 51-9
b. 29.3
c. 81-2
Average for
Given
Type
a. 39. 62
b. 24.44
c.64-06
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
Key: a. Budget shortfall rate
b. Vacancy rate
c. Employment shortfall rate
-------
12-38
TABLE 12-15
Comparison of Termination Rates
by Type and Size of Plant for Operator I
(1975)
Type of
Treatment
A •
B
C
D
Average for
given
size
Size of Plant
1
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
2
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
3
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
4
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
5
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
Average for
Given
Type
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
Key: a. Termination rate
b. Separation rate
c. Transfer out rate
-------
12-39
TABLE 12-16
Comparison of Separation Rates by
Type and Size of Plant for Operator I
(1975)
Type of
Treatment
A
B
C
D
Average for
given
size
Size of Plant
1
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
2
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
3
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
4
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
5
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
Average for
Given
Type
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
a.
b.
c.
Key: a. Quit rate
b. Discharge rate
c. Death/retirement rate
-------
12-40
tables will be of considerable use as raw input when in applied
2
step 4 of the manpower planning process, we turn to an analysis
of possible manpower problems. For example, it is clear from the
hypothesized data in Table 12-14 that shortfalls are both absolutely
and relatively more serious problems with large plants than with
small plants.
SUMMARY
The information obtained in the execution of this and the pre-
ceding step forms the data base on which much of the other tasks of
manpower planning are based. The measurement of current employment
characteristics will form the basis on which forecasts of future
employment characteristics are made, the basis upon which the analy-
sis of manpower problems are made, and the basis for attempting to
improve the performance of the manpower planning process. For these
reasons it is important to execute this step with care and provide
for an easy access to the collected data, It is hoped that once
again the formats of the various tables presented in this chapter
will facilitate the efficient storage and retrieval of the relevant
data.
2
Olympus Research Corporation, Manpower Planning for Wastewater
Treatment Plants (Salt Lake City: Olympus Research Corporation,
1973)•Prepared for Office of Water Programs, Environmental Pro-
tection Agency.
-------
12-41
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
SAMPLING TECHNIQUES
We have previously referred to the possible advisability of
manpower planners using sampling techniques in performing some of
their various tasks. This is particularly the case when measuring
current employment characteristics. It behooves us, therefore, to
devote some time to an Introductory discussion of what a sample Is
and why it is used. To accomplish this task we first need to make
several definitions that are related to the general area of sampling.
The first term to be defined is that which Is referred to as
the population or "universe." The universe is defined as the aggre-
gate or totality of all of the elementary units under consideration.
Thus when levels of employment are measured, the universe of places
of employment would be the total of all such places within the organiza-
tion. A sample is a set of observations or elementary units drawn
from the universe. Thus if the universe contained six hundred places
of employment and data were collected on every tenth plant, the sample
size would be sixty. It is common to have N denote the universe and
n the size of the sample. Thus in the previous example, N equals 600
and n equals 60.
The word "statistics" was originally used to define a collection
of information regarding the number and demographic characteristics
of people living in a given locale who were considered vital to the
state. From the original attempts to describe in numerical terms
certain characteristics of the state, there has developed a scientific
method that is now referred to as "statistics." A brief and common-
place example might give some insight into the use of statistics,
-------
12-42
especially as it relates to universe and samples. Prior to an elec-
tion for public office, public opinion pollsters often try to predict
who the winner of the election will be. In doing this they try to
estimate the proportion of the population that will vote and of this
number the proportion that will vote for each of the various candidates
In most cases canvassing all eligible voters would be difficult, and
thus a survey is made of a sample of voters. Prom the information
obtained, estimates are made as to how many of the total population
will vote for a certain candidate. The totality of all voters will
be what we have referred to as "universe," and the number of voters
that are actually surveyed would be the "sample." Prom this sample
It is hoped that a reasonably accurate estimate of the relevant pro-
portions in the population would be obtained. Making such an estimate
is referred to as "statistical inference." This is to imply, in our
example, that the voting characteristics of the unknown population are
inferred from the voting characteristics of the observed, and there-
fore known, sample.
Such inferences as are made from the sample to the universe
are done with some error. The exact proportion of the voters voting
for a particular candidate will not be predicted with complete accur-
acy. If we note the proportion of people who will actually vote as
P and the proportion of people who say they will vote for a certain
candidate, as measured in the sample as p, then the estimate of the
unknown population proportion P from the observed sample proportion p
is as follows:
P = p - error term (1)
-------
12-43
An important question is how small this error will be. It can be
shown that if the sample technique is a random sample (discussed
later) and a large enough sample, then we can state with 95 percent
confidence that
P . p i ^fiEii^l (2)
As indicated in equation 2, the accuracy is in part determined by
the size of the sample taken which in equation 2 is n.
A numerical example may best indicate how the previous formula
works. Suppose, for example, that of a thousand voters surveyed in
a sample, sixty one choose to vote for a Democratic candidate. With
this sample proportion of 0.6l, equation 2 becomes
P = 0.61 + 1.960>6l(11"0g-6l) = 0.61 + 0.03
(3)
Thus with a 95 percent confidence, we estimate that the population
proportion that would vote Democratic would be between 0,58 and 0.64.
This interval is referred to as a "confidence interval."
In some cases the use of sample data does not result in data
that are in the form of proportions, as in the previous examples.
Rather, the data are generated in the form of aggregate numbers from
the sample. We illustrate by an example from manpower planning. A
certain state may have five hundred places of employment and an inade-
quate budget to survey all of them. It decides to survey a hundred
places of employment -- those having been chosen at random. From
that sample it may be determined that a hundred new employees with
certain skills will be needed within the next year. If this sample
were truly a representative one, it would be possible to determine
-------
12-44
an estimate of how many new employees would be needed for the state
as a whole. In this example, since the sample represented one-fifth
of the total universe, it would be reasonable to suppose that five
hundred new employees would be needed for the entire state. Making
these judgments is often referred to in the literature on sampling
techniques as applying an Inflation factor. This simply means that
any estimate obtained from the sample is multiplied by the reciprocal
of the fraction that the sample represents of the universe to obtain
an estimate of the relevant figure for the universe.
As already indicated, the accuracy of estimates depends upon
the "randomness of the sample chosen and the size of its sample." We
shall not go into detail on these two factors. The manpower planner
should probably consult a statistician on these questions. However,
a random sample is one in which the selection of the elements of the
sample is better based on the use of a table of random numbers or the
selection of numbers as if from a list or box with numbers representing
all elements of the entire universe completely mixed. The selected
references section lists books that explain these issues in greater
detail.
SELECTED REFERENCES
Mabry, Bevare, D. Economics of Manpower and the_ Labor Market. New
York: Intext Publishers, 1973.
Mendenhall, William; et al. Elementary Survey Sampling. Belmont,
California: Duxbury Press, 1971
Patten, Thomas H., Jr. Manpower Planning and the Development of Human
Resources. New York: Wiley Interscience, 1971-
Wonnocott, Thomas H.; and Wonnocott, Ronald J. Introductory Statistics
New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1972.
Yamane, Taro. Statistics: An Introductory Analysis. New York:
Harper & Row Publishers, Inc. 19&7-
-------
13.
FORECASTING FUTURE
EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS
In this chapter we continue our development of the applied steps
in micromanpower planning by discussing step 3: forecast future em-
ployment characteristics. It has been said In much of the literature
on manpower planning that the major purpose of manpower planning is to
forecast future employment conditions and manpower requirements and
translate them into manpower planning needs. Such activity would in-
clude forecasting the level of new hires, the number of transfers into
and out of an occupation, and the number and type of training programs.
Manpower needs are often defined in their simplest form as the
difference between current employment and expected future employment.
There are several problems, however, with this language and with the
underlying concept. As we have previously mentioned, there is some
question as to what constitutes a "need" and what constitutes a
"requirement." The term "manpower requirements" appears most often
to be used to mean that level of employment that we have previously
identifed as recommended employment -- that employment level contained
in the staffing guide and presumably obtained as a result of applying
human factors analysis. With such interpretations, manpower planning
"requirements" are limited to number of employees and tend to exclude
explicit consideration of their quality. Future manpower requirements,
in this view, would be related to forecasts of future levels of recom-
mended employment. Future manpower needs could then be defined as the
difference between expected future recommended employment (i.e., manpower
13-1
-------
13-2
requirements) and current actual employment. This would imply that
an important element in the manpower objectives would be to eliminate
not only the employment shortfall today (i.e., recommended employment
minus actual employment) but any anticipated shortfall that might occur
due to growth in recommended employment.
A further aspect of this definitional issue is that "manpower
needs" relate to what is required when one compares the present with
expected future conditions. It contains no reference to the expected
effect the labor market may have in satisfying these needs or on how
a concerted manpower planning effort might meet such needs. In fact,
manpower needs are often listed as an argument for devoting more
resources to manpower planning.
In much of the literature on manpower planning, the term "man-
power needs" most often refers to the projected increase in the
number of individuals that will be "needed." Other dimensions of
manpower should also be considered. Among these should be the dynamic
aspects (i.e., turnovers) and the quality of needed employees. A
legitimate manpower need is to reduce the turnover rate and improve
quality of new hires. Even when manpower needs are restricted to
the concept of levels of employment, a portion of such requirements
will consist of those individuals who will be needed to fill the
positions vacated by current employees — that is, as a result of
turnovers.
Since this step deals with forecasting or estimating the future
value of data elements, It is Important for the manpower planner to
determine the length of the planning horizon. We visualize the man-
power planner as making periodic measurements and periodic projections,
-------
13-3
the frequency of which would most commonly be annually. It is nec-
essary, therefore, lor manpower planners to determine how many years
they will project into the future. We visualize manpower planners
as measuring and projecting for each year in the planning horizon
and doing it each year on a periodic basis. It is incidentally
through this process that an adaptive mechanism enters the planning
process: what manp^ jr planners forecast for a particular year they
measure in a subsequent year, and through the comparison of the re-
sulting data make periodic adjustments in their measuring and project-
ing techniques.
FORECASTS OF RECOMMENDED EMPLOYMENT
One starting point in making forecasts of future employment char-
acteristics is to begin with direct concern for levels of employment
and begin the process with the estimation of the future recommended
employment. Forecasts of recommended employment are made for each
year in the planning horizon. We have selected a planning horizon
of five years because it is consistent with planning horizons commonly
used in many planning efforts. Many educational institutions with
which a manpower planner will be required to work have five-year plan-
ning horizons. Some planning may be done for shorter periods of time,
but because of the lead time required to develop training programs
and to work with other agencies to implement manpower planning, a
longer term planning horizon is deemed necessary.
There are two major causes of changes in the level of recommended
employment: the modifications in existing places of employment (a
term we have previously suggested that we refer to as plants) and
-------
additions to the numbers of such plants. Existing plants may be mod-
ified by changes in their size or in the technology or methods of
performing their various tasks. Such changes may increase or decrease
the number of recommended employees. The number of new plants may
increase for a variety of reasons, all of which could be related to
an increase in demand for the agency's "output" (e.g., an increase
in the amount of wastewater to be treated, traffic to be policed, or
drinking water to be supplied). As the number of new plants increases
with unchanged technology, it will generally bring about a consequent
increase in the need for additional workers and increases in the level
of recommended employment.
Within many public agencies a definable process exists by which
new sources of employment come into being. In the water quality field,
for example, new wastewater treatment plants come into existence as the
result of a definite river basin planning process being followed as
illustrated in Figure 13.1. This would seem to be the case in many
other areas of the public sector. When such is the case, the time lag
between the plans for the new employment source and the time when it
is in full operation provides the manpower planner with some lead time
and a basis for making projections of future manpower requirements.
When the above process does not exist, other methods for projecting
future manpower requirements will be needed.
In all of the preceding we have asserted that in order to make
forecasts of recommended employment, the manpower planners must be
familiar with the plans both for new plants and for changes in tech-
nology of existing plants within their jurisdiction and for a period of
time at least equal to the length of the planning horizon. In some
-------
Detail and
Certainty of
Manpower Data
A
Continuous operation and
maintenance of plant with
works employed.
Continuation of
Plant Inspection
Approval of
Construction Plant
Specifications (in-
cluding staffing guide)
Application for
construction grant approved
with some specifications on
type of plant.
Initial Awareness of
the Need for More
Plants
to
I
Ul
Time
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
FIGURE 13.1. Time Phasing of Manpower Data
-------
13-6
public organizations a well-defined process may exist, the general
nature of which is illustrated in Figure 13-1. Notice that the process
is arranged to emphasize the increasing certainty of the manpower data
that can be obtained in each stage.
Prom the process outlined above, data on the time schedule for
constructing new plants and making changes in existing plants can
be obtained. Data on new plants may be entered in a form such as that
shown in Table 13-1. Under columns "type" and "size" some code may be
TABLE 13-1
New Plants and Their Recommended Employment for Operator I
Type
Size Completion Date Recommended Employment
entered that is appropriate to the organization in question. For our
exposition we shall rely upon the nature of wastewater treatment plants
for our example and use codes of 1, *J, 5, and 9 for "type" for reasons
that will become apparent subsequently. Since existing practices clas-
sify wastewater treatment by size according to the million of gallons
per day (mgd) of wastewater they treat, a number code that refers to
the mgds can be used as the code for plant size. Data to complete the
remaining column in Table 13-1 are obtained in part by a process ex-
plained in the following paragraphs.
-------
13-7
USE OF STAFFING GUIDES
The nature of staffing guides has already been explained under
the rubric of human factors utilization. It is sufficient to em-
phasize at this point that staffing guides serve as a link between the
estimated number of new plants and the estimated level of recommended
employees. To refresh our memory, we show an example of a staffing
guide in Table 13-2. Note that from such a guide the level of rec-
ommended employment for each occupation can be obtained for a plant
of given type but of various possible sizes. If such completed guides
were available for all different types and all possible sizes of
plants the "recommended employment" column in the table could be com-
pleted by choosing the datum from the relevant cell in the appropriate
staffing guide. For purposes of illustration only, we shall assume
a simplified state wastewater system consisting of four types of treat-
ment: 1, *4, 5, and 9- Tables 13-3 through 13-6 are Black and Veatch
staffing guides for each of these treatment types wherein only the
figures for Operator I have been entered.
These (partial) staffing guides may be compressed into one master
table for Operator I such as shown in Table 13-7- We suppose that
the best available information indicates that during the planning
horizon, the plants of a type and size indicated in the first two
columns of Table 13-8 are to be constructed. Prom Table 13-7 we can
complete such a table as shown in 13-8. After this table is completed
W. L. Patterson and R. P. Banker, Estimating Costs and Manpower
Requirements for Conventional Wastewater Treatment Facilities
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1971), prepared
for the Office of Research and Monitoring, Environmental Protection
Agency, by Black & Veatch Consulting Engineers, pp. 136ff.
-------
13-8
TABLE 13-2
Staff Complements to Wastewater Treatment
Plants, Type Treatment 1
(1975)
Occupation Title
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Clerk typist
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator 1 1
Operator 1
Auto, equipment operator
Maintenance supervisor
Mech. maintenance foreman
Maintenance mechanic II
Maintenance mechanic 1
Electrician II
Electrician 1
Maintenance helper
Laborer
Painter
Storekeeper
Custodian
Chemist
Laboratory technician
TOTAL staff complement
Plant Average Day Capacity in mgd
1
3
5
10
20
35
50
65
80
100
Estimated Number of Personnel
-------
13-9
TABLE 13-3
Staffing Guide for Treatment Type 1
(1975)
Occupation Title
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Clerk typist
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator 1 1
Operator 1
Auto, equipment operator
Maintenance supervisor ^
Plant Average Day Capacity in mgd
1
3
5
10
20
35
50
65
80
100
Estimated Number of Personnel
3
"\
4
S
_-* ~>
4
~^~-
4
~^\
5
6
6
-~»~ — .
8
. *~~
8
-x_
SOURCE: W. L. Patterson and R. F. Banker, Estimating Costs and
Manpower Requirements for Conventional Wastewater Treat-
ment Facilities (Washington, D.C.:U.S. Government Print-
ing Office, 197D, prepared for the Office of Research and
Monitoring, Environmental Protection Agency, by Black &
Veatch Consulting Engineers.
-------
13-10
TABLE 13-4
Staffing Guide for Treatment
(1975)
Occupation Title
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Clerk typist
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator 1 1
Operator 1
Auto, equipment operator
Maintenance supervisor j
Plant Average Day Capacity in mgd
1
3
5
10
20
35
50
65
80
100
Estimated Number of Personnel
4
^—.
4
^
5
4
— s\ i
5
7
^--~^~^
'8
l~.
10
— • -~
11
, —
14
N^
SOURCE: W. L. Patterson and R. F. Banker, Estimating Costs and
Manpower Requirements for Conventional Wastewater Treat-
ment Facilities (Washington, D.C.:U.S.Government Print-
ing Office, 1971), prepared for the Office of Research and
Monitoring, Environmental Protection Agency, by Black &
Veatch Consulting Engineers.
-------
13-11
TABLE 13-5
Staffing Guide for Treatment Type 5
(1975)
Occupation
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Clerk typist
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator 1 1
Operator 1
Auto, equipment operator
Maintenance supervisor ^ /^
Plant Average Day Capacity in mgd
1
3
5
10
20
35
50
65
80
100
Estimated Number of Personnel
3
H_ x^
4
,r"
4
- — i,
v_
5
^
6
~— J
10
""\-^
10
^
\3
~^~*<.
\S
**». ,. ***/
18
^ ,
SOURCE: W. L. Patterson and R. F. Banker, Estimating Costs and
Manpower Requirements for Conventional Wastewater Treat-
ment Fac'ilities (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print-
ing Office, 1971), prepared for the Office of Research and
Monitoring, Environmental Protection Agency, by Black &
Veatch Consulting Engineers.
-------
13-12
TABLE 13-6
Staffing Guide for Treatment Type 9
(1975)
Occupation
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Clerk typist
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator II
Operator 1
Auto, equipment operator
Maintenance supervisor
^f^^^ _^- — v *S
Plant Average Day Capacity in mgd
1
3
5
10
20
35
50
65
80
100
Estimated Number of Personnel
4
_ —
5
-^ r.
6
— ""
5
-~x-
9
12
r
'4
^^
17
~*~*
/9
u^_
25
— •— — ^
SOURCE: W. L. Patterson and R. F. Banker, Estimating Costs and
Manpower Requirements for Conventional Wastewater Treat-
ment Facilities (Washington, D.C.:U.S.Government Prlnt-
Ing Office, 1971), prepared for the Office of Research and
Monitoring, Environmental Protection Agency, by Black &
Veatch Consulting Engineers.
-------
13-13
TABLE 13-7
Master Staffing Guide for Operator I
Type of
Treatment
1
4
5
9
Number of mgd per Day
1
3
4
3
4
3
4
4
4
5
5
5
5
4
6
10
4
4
5
5
20
4
5
6
9
35
5
7
10
12
50
6
8
10
14
65
6
10
13
17
80
8
11
15
19
100
8
14
18
25
the data may be entered for all occupations in a form such as that
shown in Table 13-9- For such a table it will be necessary to deter-
mine the nature of the "year." We have used the calendar year concept,
although in many states a fiscal year concept beginning on July 1 may
be more appropriate.
It is important to note certain problems that might arise with
the use of staffing guides in making forecasts of recommended employ-
ment. The closer in time a plant's completion data, the greater the
probability of obtaining more reliable information from the several
sequential data points in the process. When such data sources are
available, they should be used, and whenever their information differs
from that provided in the staffing guides, the more current data
should be used.
In the example of wastewater treatment plants their size is
measured by mgds. The size ratings on the staffing guides do not re-
present a continuum with respect to mgds, thus requiring some for
-------
13-14
TABLE 13-8
New Plants and Their Recommended Employment for Operator I
Type
5a
4a
la
9a
5a
5a
4a
la
9a
la
9a
Size
35
20
10
80
1
100
5
35
50
3
80
Completion
Date
September 1975
January 1976
October 1976
February 1977
March 1977
November 1977
May 1978
December 1978
January 1979
August 1979
May 1980
Recommended
Employment
10
5
4
19
3
18
5
5
14
4
19
TABLE 13-9
Additions to Recommended Employment from New Plants
(From Table 13-8)
Year
Occupation 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979"
Operator I 10 9 40 10 18
-------
13-15
plant sizes falling within the interstices of such guides. This is
likely to be a characteristic of many public sector organizations.
If it is expected that such extrapolations will be made frequently,
the master staffing guide for each occupation may be changed to re-
flect such expectations.
To complete the estimates of additions to recommended employ-
ment, the planner must obtain those changes that will result from the
modification of existing plants. Such information may not be as
easily predictable, for it is not certain that the use of staffing
guides is appropriate in such cases. The construction of application
forms, if available, may be used, however, to obtain the necessary
data to complete a table such as shown in Table 13-9.
The data from the tables in Tables 13-9 and 13-10 should be com-
bined to obtain Table 13-11. These data may in turn be added to those
on current recommended employment (Table 12-7 in the preceding chapter)
to obtain the data on total recommended employment shown in Table 13-12
TABLE 13-10
Additions to Recommended Employment from
Changes in Existing Plants
Year
Occupation 1975
Operator I 4
1976
10
1977
11
1978
0
1979
1
-------
13-16
TABLE 13-H
Total Additions to Recommended Employment
(Table 13-9 plus 13-10)
Occupation 1975
Operator I 14
Year
1976 1977 1970 1979
19 51 10 19
TABLE 13-12
Estimated Total Recommended Employment
(Table 13-10 plus 13-11)
Occupation 197^ 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
Operator I 1,100 1,114 1,133 1,184 1,194 1,213
-------
13-17
We should also note that it is not absolutely necessary to
carry the estimated data forward in aggregate form as shown in Table
13-12. Manipulations made upon these data in the next section do,
however, provide some argument for such aggregation, although estimates
of actual additional manpower needs (discussed subsequently) provide
some reason for disaggregation of these data. We have chosen the
aggregate approach primarily because it gives the manpower planner a
feeling for levels of employment as well as changes in these levels,
while the alternative approach emphasizes only the latter.
ALTERNATIVE BASES FOR FORECASTING
FUTURE EMPLOYMENT
Without a clearly defined process that describes the additions
to or modifications in sources of employment, in organizations that are
experiencing some growth, the projecting of future manpower requirements
may become a more difficult undertaking. The basis for such alternative
projection techniques must, however, either directly or indirectly be
related to estimates of the agency's output and the relation between
such output and employment levels. The agency's output might in turn
have to be related to other more easily quantifiable variables. If
output is difficult to measure, current levels of recommended employment
might be related to variables other than output that are initially
presumed but subsequently found to have some stable relationship to
employment.
An example of the preceding issues is required. Let us suppose
that we are engaged in manpower planning for a state highway patrol
agency and that we have some difficulty in measuring output. Are we
to measure output, for example, by number of tickets written, number
-------
13-18
of cars stopped, or number of crimes anticipated or prevented? Clearly
the last of these is not measurable and the preceding two may not nec-
essarily reflect all of the ramifications of what would normally serve
as a basis for our discussion on projecting certain aspects of manpower
data.
How would one go about projecting the number of tickets to be
written over the next five years, or the number of cars to be stopped,
and so forth? Upon reflection it becomes clear that some other more
basic variable on which to base the projections is required. In the
case of the state highway patrol, the number of registered automobiles
(and the infractions attributable to that number) might be a more basic
variable on which to base projections of future manpower requirements.
Thus if historical data were available, or at least current data from
the current measurement of employment supported by auxiliary data ob-
tained elsewhere (e.g., state population figures), a simple relationship
could be estimated between population and auto registrations, then be-
tween auto registrations and number of infractions, and finally between
number of infractions and levels of recommended employment. Since
projections of future population (and in some cases such other projec-
tions such as automobile registrations) are made by other agencies,
the manpower planner could obtain such projections and obtain estimates
of future manpower requirements by assuming, unless other information
exists to the contrary, that the simple relationship that exists today
between levels of recommended employment and population (i.e., auto
registrations, tickets, and so on) will continue into the future. If
it is expected that this linear relationship will change, for whatever
-------
13-19
reason, this can partially handled by adjustments in the assumed
relationships.
These methods will become more understandable as we continue
into the next section of this chapter and introduce techniques for
obtaining budgeted and actual employment from recommended employment.
The techniques used in these estimates are identical to those stated
above.
Forecasts of Budgeted and Actual Employment
Plans to provide training for additional manpower planning ex-
pected to enter the public agency must take into account estimates
of actual, not recommended, employment. As a consequence of this
fact, it is necessary to make forecasts of actual employment over the
planning horizon. Such forecasts provide the basis for computing changes
in actual employment. The method by which these forecasts can be made
in the foreseeable future will rely heavily upon previously made fore-
casts of recommended employment. Forecasts of budgeted employment may
also be made by using the same general techniques.
The method by which it is suggested that budgeted and actual
employment be forecast Is through the use of what we have termed
the "factors of proportionality" between recommended employment and
budgeted employment and between recommended employment and actual
employment. Such factors are computed by dividing budgeted employ-
ment by recommended employment, and actual employment by recommended
employment for those years for which actual data are available. We
shall note the factor of proportionality for budgeted employment as
P, and the factor for actual employment as P&. In Table 13-13 we dis-
play values for P^ and Pa based upon the hypothetical data used throughout
-------
13-20
this and preceding discussions. The values as computed are 0.86 for
Pb (indicating that budgeted employment was 86 percent of recommended
employment) and 0.82 for P,,.
d
TABLE 13-13
Factors of Proportionality between Budgeted and
Recommended and between Actual and Recommended,
by Occupation
(1975)
Occupations
Recommended Budgeted Actual
Employment Employment Employment
pb
Total (all occupations)
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator II
Operator I
Maintenance supervisor
1,100
950
900
0.86 0.82
The manpower planner may now estimate budgeted employment for
each year in the planning horizon, assuming the same factors of pro-
portionality. Although the vagaries of politics and administration
make this chore difficult, it may be assumed that in the absence of
noticeable changes in the political situation, the same relationship
or factor or proportionality will exist in each succeeding year as in
the present year. In Table 13-14 we show the results of multiplying
recommended employment for each year In the planning horizon by Pb
to obtain estimates of budget employment, while in Table 13-15 we show
similar estimates for actual employment, and in Table 13-16 the growth
of actual employment on a year-by-year basis.
-------
13-21
TABLE 13-14
Estimates of Budgeted Employment, by Year and Occupation
Year
Occupation 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator II
Operator I 958 974 1,018 1,026 1,043
Maintenance supervisor
TABLE 13-15
Estimates of Actual Employment, by Year and Occupation
Year
Occupation 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator II
Operator I 913 929 971 979 995
Maintenance supervisor
-------
13-22
TABLE 13-16
Estimates of Growth in Actual Employment, by Year and Occupation
Year
Occupation
1973 19741975 1976 1977
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator II
Operator I
Maintenance supervisor
13
16
42
16
A record should be maintained of the factors of proportionality
as they actually develop from year to year throughout the planning
horizon. This should be done for each occupation in a format such as
that shown in Table 13-17- Such records may prove to be valuable
TABLE 13-17
Projected Factors of Proportionality between Recommended and
Actual Employment - ?„
Occupation
Operator I
1974
.86
Factor of Proportionality
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
-------
13-23
In more accurately forecasting actual employment by obtaining better
estimates of future values of P . Insofar as the value of Po changes
a a
throughout the planning horizon, both its current and past values should
be used in projecting future values of actual employment, though some
decisions are required as to how such information will be used.
The basic principle underlying the notion that several pieces
of past information are useful in forecasting future values of P is
a
based upon the assumption that there may be systematic forces operating
upon the factors of proportionality to change them from one year to
another. In 1975, only a single observation, that for 197^, is avail-
able as a base for projecting future values for P . In the absence of
cL
any other information, it is reasonable to assume that the value of P
a,
in 197^ would continue through 1979- In 1976, however, observed values
of P for 197^ and 1975 would be available. If Po differed for these
a a
and later years, the manpower planner would be faced with the decision
of which if any of these values he or she should use in making projec-
tions of future employment in 1977 and beyond. Several options are
available, none of which, a priori, are completely satisfactory. As
manpower planners monitor and evaluate their planning process, they
will obtain experience that would allow them to choose the best from
among the alternative techniques that we now discuss.
The simplest solution to the planner's dilemma would be to use
the most current observed value of P . If when this practice is fol-
3,
lowed, it happens that a trend in the values of P exists, then taking
SL
into account the trend will in general be an improvement over using
the first (or the last) observed value for P . Such a practice would
3.
-------
13-24
also tend to give more accurate estimates than if some simple averaging
technique was used.
If a trend does exist, however, some improvement may be made over
the option of using the most current value by employing some technique
such as adding the difference between the two previously computed factors
to the most recent factor. Thus if in 1974 we observed P =0.86 while
3.
in 1975 we observed P^ = 0.84, we might wish to assume that the value in
a,
1975 would be 0.82. Such a practice could be continued throughout the
planning horizon, although certain limits may have to be imposed upon
such a process. Such estimates assume that changes that occurred in
the past will continue in the future in the same direction and with
equal force. Neither component of this statement is necessarily true.
The observed value for Pa in 1976 may be in a different direction from
that assumed in computing the expected value to be 0.82, or it may be
in the same direction but of a different magnitude from that which was
assumed. Clearly errors of the first type are more damaging than those
of the second type.
If no definite pattern is presumed to exist in succeeding values
of P , then one possible solution in making projections for the unob-
a
served values would be to assume some type of average of past values.
Thus for the example in the previous paragraph, the value assumed for
1976 would be 0.85 if a simple averaging process were used.
Possibly one of the best ways for the manpower planner to learn
how to choose values for a future Pa is to plot each one on graph paper.
If the points seem to follow patterns such as those shown in Figure 13-2,
then simple averaging would appear to offer some advantages; but if
trends seem to be present as in Figure 13-3, some technique to estimate
-------
13-25
this trend would be desirable. A brief introduction to a sample
of such techniques is contained in the final section of this chapter,
"supplementary information." It is hoped that such techniques will be-
come available to individual manpower planners. When their various
analyses and data are computerized, the manpower planners will be able
to rely upon statistical techniques that should improve their ability
to forecast future values of all the important variables.
The preceding analysis dealt with the forecasting of future levels
of recommended employment under rather stable conditions. We need to
mention that forecasts are often made in unstable conditions. It is
the nature of forecasting techniques, even the sophisticated ones used
in national economic planning, that they cannot handle what are referred
to as "shocks" to the system. Such shocks, by their very nature, can-
not be modeled. Examples of such shocks are again readily available
from the water quality field. Funds for the federal contribution of
building municipal wastewater treatment funds were impounded in the
early 1970s for several months. Such impoundment would make inaccurate
all previously made forecasts that' did not take this impounding into
effect. Yet very few planners could reasonably have been expected to
see that such an impoundment was going to be made. When the funds were
eventually released, any forecasts made on the presumption that they were
not to be released would also have been in error.
Shocks are not predictable. It is probably the case, however,
that if planners have a good predictive model, then after the shock
has occurred they are in a better position to determine the effect of
that shock upon manpower requirements than if they had no model
whatsoever.
-------
t
1.00--
Average •
Pa
OJ
I
ro
ON
Observation Period
Forecasting Period
Time
FIGURE 13. 2. Example of Plotting Values of Pa over Time
-------
1.00
>- Time
Observation
Period
Forecast
Period
Observation
Period
Time
Forecast
Period
uo
I
FIGURE 13.3. Example of Plotting Values of P over Time
-------
13-28
Forecasts of Additional Manpower Needs
We have now arrived at the point where we can make forecasts of
future additional manpower needs. Such needs will come from three
sources: (1) terminations in existing employment, (2) the construction
of new plants, and (3) changes in the numbers of workers needed in the
modification of existing plants. The second and third causes can be
combined and then referred to simply as additional manpower needed as
a result of expected changes in growth of employment. These numbers
can be computed directly from Table 13-15 by taking differences in the
estimated values of actual employment, as shown in Table 13-16. For
example, it remains then for us to illustrate how forecasts of additional
manpower needs as a result of terminations are to be made.
The number of additional workers that will be needed because of
terminations can be estimated by multiplying the estimate of actual
employment by the estimate of the relevant terminations rate for the
same year. To accomplish this process, the manpower planner must make
forecasts of the future values of the termination rates — the forecasts
of actual employment having already been made. In general, the methods
for forecasting future values of the factors of proportionality between
recommended and actual employment should be employed in making forecasts
of the future value of the termination rates. Some possible difference
in techniques used, however, may arise.
Those variables that enter into the planner's judgmental decisions
may cause him to expect different trends in terminations as compared
to those trends expected in the factors of proportionality simply be-
cause different subjective elements on these matters. For example,
expectations as to the rate at which employees will be discharged will
-------
13-29
be based upon different premises from judgments concerning how local
governmental units may try to decrease employment shortfalls. One
further difference arises because certain types of information relevant
to estimating future termination rates are available in a sense that
equivalent information is not available in forecasting future values of
the factors of proportionality. We have in mind that component of
terminations due to death or to retirement. From figures contained
in Table 12-5, information is available not only on the current ter-
mination rate, but also the current death or retirement rate. Information
has also been obtained on the age distribution of individuals by oc-
cupation. This age distribution can and should be examined to see
whether within the planning horizon there is reason to believe that
significant changes in the death or retirement rate will occur.
To illustrate these points by one brief example, we consider two
alternative age distributions. Such distributions are shown as examples
A and B in Table 13-18. In these admittedly extreme cases we see that
the death or retirement cause would not contribute any influence on
the termination rate within the next five years in example A if the
mandatory retirement age was 65, while it contributes a significant
factor in example B, since 50 percent of the work force will retire
within the next five years.
One method of displaying forecasts of the future values of the
termination rates and the results of such forecasts as they affect
the estimates for additional manpower is in a format such dS Table 13-19.
From all of the preceding calculations, a format such as Table
13-20 may now be completed. The figures for growth in current employment,
-------
13-30
TABLE 13-18
Percentage Distribution by Age
Years
20
30
40
50
55
60
61
62
63
64
of
to
to
to
to
to
Age
29
39
49
54
59
Example A
10
20
30
40
*
Example B
5
5
10
10
20
5
10
11
11
13
being determined by deducting the estimate of actual employment of
each year from that of the previous year, are from Table 13-15-
Data such as are contained in Table 13-20 should of course be
computed for each occupation, at which time it may conveniently be
entered into a table such as the one shown in Table 13-21.
Prom the preceding table, we note that an additional 59 workers
for the position of Operator I will be required for 1975 — given the
various assumptions, particularly with regard to employment shortfalls,
that went into obtaining this figure. It will be useful from the point
of view of planning appropriate training programs to obtain some notion
of whence these 59 new operators are most likely to come. Estimates
of how important the alternative sources are most likely to be can be
obtained by examining available information on previous accessions.
The most recent information on accession is for 1974, at which time we
noted (see Table 12-5) that 25 workers acceded to the position of
-------
13-31
TABLE 13-19
Forecasts of Additional Manpower Needs for Operator I due to
Expected Terminations
Termination
Rates*
0.0
5-0
5.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
Year
1972
1973
197^
1975
1976
1977
Actual Employment by Year
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
913 929 970 979 995
46
46
19
20
10
Hypothetical termination rate.
TABLE 13-20
Additional Manpower Needed by Source for Operator I
1.
2.
Source 1975 1976
Terminations in
current employment 46 46
(from Table 13-10)
Growth in current
employment 13 16
(from Figure 13.9)
TOTAL 59 62
Year
1977
19
42
61
1978
20
8
28
1979
10
16
26
Operator I. Our forecast
-------
13-32
TABLE 13-21
Additional Manpower Needed by Occupation
(1973 to 1977)
Year
Occupation 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
Superintendent
Assistant superintendent
Operations supervisor
Shift foreman
Operator II
Operator I 59 62 6l 28 26
Maintenance supervisor
Operator I. Our forecast is that 59 will accede in the coming year.
In the absence of further information, it is reasonable to assume that
the various components of accessions will represent the same proportion
of the additional 59 as they did for the previous 25.
In Tables 12-5 and 12-12 we note that of the 25 accessions in
1974, fifteen (60 percent) were new hires, six (24 percent) were up-
grades, and four (16 percent) were horizontal transfers. If we assume
that these same percentages apply in 1975, we obtain the data shown in
Table 13-22. Thirty-five (0.60 x 59) would appear as new hires, fourteen
(0.24 x 59) as upgrades, and 9(0.16 x 59) as horizontal transfers.
Assuming that the same percentages that were computed for 1974
will persist from 1975 through 1979, we can estimate the sources of
additional operators throughout the planning horizon and enter them in
Table 13-23-
TABLE 13-22
Estimated Sources of Additional Manpower by Occupation for 1975
New Horizontal
Occupation Manpower Needed Hires Upgrades Transfers
Operator I 59 35 14 9
-------
13-33
Table 13-23 is the result of the several calculations that were
made in these two discussions. The table summarizes all of the material
relevant to forecasting the quantity and most probable source of addi-
tional Operators I that will enter the wastewater treatment plants
throughout the planning horizon. Such a table should of course be
completed for each occupation.
TABLE 13-23
Sources of Additional Manpower for Operator I
throughout the Planning Horizon
Source
New hires
Transfers upgrade
Horizontal
TOTAL
aBecause of rounding
1975
35
14
9
58a
5, this is
1976
37
15
10
62
not equal
Year
1977
37
15
10
62
to the
1978
17
7
5
29
figure
1979
16
6
4
26
in Table 13-
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION
As an extension of the discussion on forecasting future manpower
needs, we present a brief review of more sophisticated forecasting
techniques. (Our presentation is so brief that it calls into question
the use of the word "review.") We have designed this review to simul-
taneously meet several objectives. Although this review of forecasting
techniques is not complete enough to enable most manpower planners to
use them in their planning processes, it will nevertheless introduce
them to certain basic and important principles. It is hoped that this
-------
introduction will stimulate their desire to improve upon their fore-
casting practices whenever it is possible to do so. A further objective
of this review is to provide background material that will permit cer-
tain types of analysis to be better understood, which are relevant to
the analysis of manpower problems that are discussed in a subsequent
paragraph. As more manpower data become available and as the use of
computer facilities becomes more widespread, more advanced versions of
the material we are about to review can and should be adopted.
Uncertainty and Length of the Planning Horizon
It is axiomatic to say that we know less about what will happen
next year than what happened this year. Uncertainty exists about
future conditions, and the amount of uncertainty increases the farther
into the future we try to forecast. Consequently, the forecasts that we
make today of what will happen in the future will be less accurate
the farther into the future we attempt to forecast.
This observation should not be taken as an argument against making
forecasts. It Is an argument, however, for imposing limits upon the
period of time for which forecasts are made and an argument for engaging
in what might be called adaptive or feedback forecasting. This is to
imply, for example, that five-year forecasts are made each year so that
in succeeding years the new forecast can be adjusted on the basis of
information obtained on the accuracy of former forecasts.
A reasonable period of time over which to make estimates of future
employment would appear to be five years, although there are no hard
and fast rules concerning this. Because of lead time necessary to respond
to whatever predictions about the future are made, a period of one or
-------
13-35
two years would seem to be too short. This is especially true when
it is recognized that most of the manpower data for the water pollution
control industry will be available on a yearly basis. Furthermore,
the tradition of two-year associate degree programs and four-year
baccalaureate degree programs would appear to dictate a planning horizon
of three to five years — the additional year being required in which the
forecasts are actually made.
Manpower Data
There are two basic forms in which manpower data may exist: time
series and cross-sectional. Time series data are a series of numbers
arranged according to times; e.g., according to yearly, quarterly, or
monthly periods. Cross-sectional data are those pertaining to different
elements of a population at the same point in time; e.g., data coming
from familes, industries, or plants in a given time period. It is
common for the observations in a time series to be from successive and
equally spaced intervals of time. Some data are available in a combi-
nation of time series and cross-section. Such data tend to be better
for most purposes to which the data are to be put, either in time series
or cross-sectional.
Most forecasts are based in part upon empirical observations.
If forecasts are made on the basis of time series data, the period of
time from which these observations were obtained is referred to as the
"observation" or "sample" period. It will be convenient to use the
same terminology for cross-sectional data even though time does not
enter such data as it does with the time series format.
-------
13-36
To firm up some of these concepts, let us consider a specialized
form of the demand for operator function. We have stated in the dis-
cussion on labor economics that the level of actual employment (E.) is
Jr\.
in part a function of the wage (W) paid to operators and the budget (B)
of the wastewater treatment plant. This simple relationship can be
expressed in several functional forms. One might be:
EA = a0 + a1W + a2B (1)
while another might be
logEA = aQ + a1log¥ + a2logB (2)
Which functional form would be most appropriate will in part be deter-
mined by the data and by feedback from an adaptive forecasting process.
When data are available for the variables E,,, W, and B, the use
of certain statistical techniques called "regression analysis" can be
used to estimate the values of the a's. Many computer programs exist
for conducting regression analyses that require only that the user
supply data on the variables and have some knowledge to interpret the
regression equation. We do not intend to review all of the statistical
issues related to such regressions; rather, we shall review only the
broad outlines of the technique.
Because of certain established theories concerning the relationship
between the actual employment and variables (such as wages and budgets),
we were able to write an equation such as (1) or (2) above. In many
cases, the theory indicates the sign of the a's, but not the magnitude.
Through the application of the regression technique, we are able to
obtain estimates of the size of the a's. Once these estimates have been
made and additional data on wages and budgets obtained for a period
-------
13-37
beyond the sample period, it is possible to make forecasts of the actual
employment of operators.
For example, suppose that data on the three variables in equation
(1) are available and that the magnitude of the a's has been estimated.
The result might be as follows:
E. = 250 + 3.00W + 1.01B (3)
ri
where wages are measured in dollars and budgets in hundred thousands
of dollars. These estimates would imply that as the wage increased by
one dollar, the level of actual employment would increase by three,
and that as the budget for. this plant increased $100,000, it would wish
to increase the level of actual employment by approximately one.
With estimated values of the coefficients (the a's), the manpower
planner could in principle forecast actual employment for operators if
he or she knew the future values of both wages and budgets. This is,
however, where a significant difficulty arises. A priori, there is no
reason to believe at this stage of the development of manpower data
that direct information on the future value of such variables as wages
and budgets will be any easier to obtain than direct estimates of
employment for operators. It is partly in acknowledgment of this draw-
back that the use of the factors of the proportionality method were
suggested.
One way of viewing the use of the factors of the proportionality
method is within the framework of a more complicated regression problem.
It would be legitimate to argue that the determinants of actual employ-
ment include not only wages and budgets, but also the effect of recom-
mended employment. Thus if we had the equation
EA = a0 + axW + a2B + a3ER (4)
-------
13-38
where E denotes recommended employment, then aq would be the effect
R -J
that changes In recommended employment would have upon actual employment,
independent of the separate effects of wages and budgets. The reader
may initially question this interpretation by asking how more people
could be demanded when budgets were not changed. The answer that im-
mediately suggests itself is that changes in the level of recommended
employment might bring about changes in the allocation of a given budget
in favor of hiring more operators at the expense of other (and supposedly
less important) activities.
Our previous comments concerning the difficulty in obtaining es-
timates of future wages and budgets apply equally to equation (4). Re-
moving the wage and budgetary variables from equation (4) does not,
however, lead directly to the previously described factors of the
proportionality method, for that method simply required that we multiply
estimates of recommended employment by the last observed value of the
ratio of actual to recommended employment, while the methods under review
require that an averaging process be undertaken. Ignoring the wage and
budget variables in equation (4) could result in the equation
EA = a0 + a3ER (5)
or, if we also eliminate the constant term aQ, in the equation
EA = a3ER (6)
Even though (6) may seemingly be rearranged to give EA/ER = a? = ?a,
we should not commit the error of doing so. That this is an error is
readily seen by noting that the estimate of a? in both (5) and (6) is
made from several observations on actual and recommended employment.
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13-39
A further refinement should be made in these equations. Since we
do not expect and have not inferred exact relationships, an "error term"
should be added to each equation. If we note such a term by "e," then
(5) and (6) may be rewritten as
and
V aO + a3ER
ER - a3ER + e (8)
The objective of our regression technique can now be stated as that
of estimating the values of the a's while minimizing the error term.
We can illustrate all of the preceding by the use of a scatter
diagram shown in Figure 13.4. In this diagram, the asterisks denote
points over time, indicating relationships between actual and recom-
mended employment. The diagram is so constructed that if these points
were to lie on a 45 degree line through the origin (noted as the solid
line), then actual and recommended employment would be equal. In our
example, this does not occur.
By using regression techniques, we could estimate a line such as
is represented by equation (8). The resulting estimate of a^ would
then be noted by the broken line. This line indicates a type of average
relationship between actual and recommended employment. The distance
between the x's and the broken line is the error term, and the broken
line has been so constructed as to minimize the sum of the squares of
these errors. The slope of this line denotes the value of the estimated
factor of proportionality. In the example chosen, we have made the
slope approximately equal to 0.80. This line can be extended beyond
the sample period, as is indicated by the dots. Given the estimates of
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13-40
recommended employment from the construction grants process, the manpower
planner would then be able to read the expected value of future actual
employment. This we indicate in the diagram by the circled dot. It
is obtained by multiplying the estimated ER by 0.80.
Note that if we had used the original factors of the proportionality
method, we would have multiplied the estimated value of recommended
employment by the last observed value of the ratio of actual to recom-
mended employment. In the example depicted in Figure 13.4, this would
have produced a value greater than 0.80. This is indicated by the fact
that the last observed value is above the broke line. In any given year,
such an estimate might be better than estimating on the basis of extend-
ing the regression line; but on the average, such estimates will not be
as good if there is any validity to the assumed relationship between
actual and recommended employment.
Possible improvements in the estimating procedure are obtained
by estimating an equation of the form illustrated by equation (7),
where a constant term is present. The relevant scatter diagram and
regression line are illustrated in Figure 13-5- In this figure, we have
used the same data as before, although now the estimated slope of the
regression line is less than 0.80; let us say that it is approximately
0.75.
To forecast actual employment on the basis of estimates of
recommended employment from this equation, we use a different procedure.
Let us suppose that the full equation was estimated to be
EA = 10 + 0.75ER (9)
and that the last observed ratio between actual employment was 0,90.
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Actual Employment
Recommended
Employment
u>
I
Observation Period
Forecast Period
FIGURE 13.4. Scatter Diagram and Estimates of EA =
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13-42
If the estimate of recommended employment next year Is 120, then the
estimate of actual employment using equation (9) would be
EA = 10 + 0.75(120) + 0.90 = 100 (10)
Using the results of equation (8), we would obtain
EA = 0.80(120) = 96 (11)
and, using the last observed ratio, we would obtain
EA + 0.90(120) = 108 (12)
We have therefore obtained three different estimates from the same data!
Which of these two regression equations will, on the average, pro-
vide the best results only time and experimentation will tell. The
well-prepared manpower planner will want to use each of these procedures
and compare their forecasts with observed values as such observations
are made each year.
A possibly serious shortcoming of these regression techniques is
the fact that as used so far in the analysis, the same value a^ is
used throughout the forecast period. This is because linear regression
techniques were used in the estimation procedure. If nonlinear techniques
were used, as would be the case for the logarithmic functional form
in equation (2), then possibly more accurate estimates could be obtained
of certain trends if the ratio relationship between actual and recommended
employment were present. Thus it is possible that over time, the ratio
of actual to recommended employment may approach its ideal limit of
unity. This limit may be approached asymptotically; i.e., in decreasing
increments. A linear regression would not pick this process up, al-
though certain aspects of it would be captured if in each year regres-
sions such as we have, discussed in this sequel are reestimated.
-------
Actual Employment
Recommended
Employment
LO
I
4=-
U)
Observation Period
Forecast Period
FIGURE 13.5. Scatter Diagram and Estimates for EA = aQ +
-------
SELECTED REFERENCES
Yamane, Toro. Statistics and Introductory Analysis
New York: Harper & Row Publishers,Inc., 1967
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14.
IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF
MANPOWER PROBLEMS
In this chapter we discuss step 4: to identify and analyze man-
power problems. The range of manpower problems is often categorized
according to whether they are problems of recruitment, retention,
training, or utilization. Before such a classification of problems
can be made, however, it is first necessary for the planner to deter-
mine whether a problem exists.
DETERMINATION OF MANPOWER PROBLEMS
In important respects, whether manpower problems exist depends
upon the content of the organization's general and manpower objectives
At least the seriousness of a particular characteristic that is iden-
tified as a problem depends upon the organization's objectives and
their interrelationships. A further aspect of determining whether
a problem exists is the identification of the causes of such a problem,
People may differ as to what they conceive to be the causes of a
particular employment characteristic and therefore differ as to the
definition of what the problem is. These differences may then result
in the design of manpower programs aimed at resolving differently
conceived problems.
Whether an employment characteristic is considered a problem
might depend upon the objectives of the organization and how they are
translated into manpower objectives. If the primary objective of the
organization is, for example, primarily to keep output, somehow de-
termined, increasing at a particular rate, then so long as this rate
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14-2
of output is maintained, regardless of "undesirable" employment
characteristics that may result, the manager may not acknowledge the
problem and may be unsympathetic to recommendations for its resolu-
tion. Thus the rate of change in output may be maintained at a de-
sirable rate, but high turnover rates exist, making for higher than
necessary costs. If these high turnover rates are "abnormal," the
manpower planner may wish to decrease the magnitude of them by recom-
mending a change in the occupational structure or wage differentials.
It is possible that management would be unreceptive to these ideas
and thereby not accept the notion that similar increases in output
could be maintained at lower costs.
How far back into its "origins" a particular problem is to be
traced is often a difficult decision. A framework for viewing a se-
quence of possible problems is illustrated in Figure 14.1. The se-
quence has been extended to just beyond that point where it seems
reasonable to expect the actions of the manpower planner to have some
noticeable effect. In the first block the specific problem confront-
ing the organization is illustrated. A "cause" of this problem to
some might be identified as inadequate staffing in both its quantita-
tive and qualitative aspects, while to others inadequate staffing
will simply be identified as another problem, and poor operation mere-
ly its symptom or consequence.
The cause of inadequate staffing might be identified as being
related to recruitment, retention, or manpower utilization. These
may be caused by low wages or poor working conditions, which in turn
are identified by others to be the basic problem. Two other steps
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1. RECRUITMENT
2. RETENTION
3. UTILIZATION
1. LOW WAGES
2. POOR WORKING
CONDITIONS
3. TRADE UNION
REQUIREMENTS,
E.G., INTERNAL
LABOR MARKET
4. CIVIL SERVICE
REGULATIONS
5. PLANT LOCATION NOT
AVAILABLE TO PUBLIC
TRANSPORTATION
6. CERTIFICATION
REQUIREMENTS
7. LACK OF A CAREER
PROGRAM
1.
2.
INADEQUATE
BUDGETS
LACK OF
MODERN
MANAGE
MENT OR
ADMINIS-
TRATION
J=r
I
LA)
1. HIGH TERMINATION RATE
2. LONG-TERM JOB VACANCIES
3. EXCESSIVE USE OF PART-TIME STAFF
4. POOR QUALITY RECRUITS
FIGURE 14.1. The Sequence of Manpower Problems
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14-4
illustrating the problem of inadequate budget, poor plant manage-
ment, and public attitudes are included in the figure. Block G,
which is not in the chain of possible problems but is connected to
blocks C and D, may be taken as consisting of factors which may be
problems in themselves but also may be evidence of other problems.
Thus the existence of a high termination rate is indicative of a
problem of retention or evidence of poor working conditions.
The manpower planner, perhaps in conjunction-with other members
of the management team, must answer the question: At which level
should I attempt to enter the chain of problems depicted in the pre-
ceding diagram? The principle of division of labor would seem to
suggest that those individuals working with the technological aspects
of the organization's operations be concerned with blocks A and B,
while the manpower planner would direct most of his or her energies
to solving those problems listed in blocks C, D, and G.
An example to further explain the material in Figure 14.1 would
be as follows: The inability to recruit new and retain current em-
ployees may be related to the same variables. Difficulties in re-
cruiting new individuals into particular occupations may be related
to the existence of physically poor working conditions, the low pres-
tige of the occupation, or low wages. The presence of any of these
variables, in the absence of compensating offsets in other variables,
would be sufficient to cause recruitment and retention problems. On
the other hand, the presence of one or two of these variables may be
completely compensated for by significantly high values of the re-
maining variables. For example, high wages may offset the effects of
poor working conditions and low occupational prestige.
-------
The execution of this manpower planning step is probably the
most difficult for the average manpower planner in that it places the
greatest demands upon his or her analytical ability and upon the ser-
vices that are available within the planning office of the organiza-
tion. In some cases the type of analysis required in this step can
be obtained with the help of computer programs and a staff possessing
considerable analytical skills. In those cases where such services
are not available, a much less rigorous analysis will have to be con-
ducted. Our analysis, as previously indicated, is directed toward
those manpower offices with rather limited resources.
Manpower policy is concerned with fully staffing the public
agency and keeping it fully staffed with the right people in the right
places at the lowest cost. The role of the manpower planner Is formu-
lating and implementing plans to ensure that the above objectives will
be achieved. It includes plans to correct current deficiencies and
to anticipate and be ready with corrective action for deficiencies
that may occur In the future.
The following sections use and extend the analytical tools of
labor economics introduced in Chapter 3 to an analysis of manpower
problems.
POTENTIAL CAUSES OF IMPROPER
OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE
Manpower problems that may cause a plant to be improperly oper-
ated or maintained are classifiable under three headings: (1) there
are too few employees, (2) the employees do not possess the qualifi-
cations and skills necessary for proper performance, or (3) the em-
ployees are not used to an optimum extent.
-------
The fact that a plant is not staffed according to engineering
specifications is not in itself a test of the adequacy of maintenance
or operation. The specifications themselves may be faulty. It will
be assumed for purposes of this discussion, however, that the guide-
lines are correct. Moreover, it seems probable that as experience
is gained, the guidelines will be brought into harmony with reality.
Too Few Employees — A Graphical Approach
The existence of an employment shortfall may be explained by
supply and demand schedules. Let us assume that in Figure 14.2 the
recommended level of employment for Operators I is Q.^. Given the
supply schedule S,, it would require a wage of W and an expenditure
on manpower equal to the area W,AQ,0 to obtain the quantity of workers
Q . In the figure, the equilibrium wage and quantity that would result
from the free operation of the labor market would be equal to the
difference between Q, and Q2 . One obvious method of eliminating this
shortfall is to increase wages from W"2 to W-L. This would be repre-
sented by a shift in the northwesterly direction of the demand curve
until it intersects the supply curve at position A.
Other possible explanations for shortfalls emerge from an analy-
sis of Figure 14.2:
1. The plant may be authorized to pay a wage of V^, but to
employ only Q~ workers. Clearly the budget itself is at
fault and must be increased to reduce the shortfall. The
plant could increase its employment with the same budget
by allowing the wage to fall toward W2 . It is not neces-
sarily the case, however, that with the same budget and a
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14-7
Hourly
Wage
Rate
W,
W,
w.
D,
Q
Q2
Number of Operators
FIGURE 14.2. Employment Shortfall for Operators
-------
14-8
wage of W"2 quantity Q of workers could be hired. This
is to note the fact that areas OW,BQ_ (the size of the
budget) and OW2EQ2 are equal.
2. The plant may be authorized to pay a wage equal to or
greater than W2 but less than W,, with the number of bud-
geted positions being determined by positions on the sched-
ule. For this range of wages and the quantities along the
demand schedule the firm will experience no vacancies be-
cause it will always be able to fill its budgeted positions.
Thus its shortfall between actual employment and recom-
mended employment will appear to be solely a matter of an
inadequate budget. And in fact, for any wage greater than
W2, a larger budget will reduce the employment shortfall.
Yet it cannot eliminate the shortfall unless the wage rate
is increased to w^, or the supply schedule is shifted to
S2, or some appropriate combination of the two occurs. This
is illustrated in Figure 14.3.
Let us assume that the plant is authorized to employ
Qo workers at a wage of W^ (see Figure 14.3). This implies
that the budget is area OW^AQ . If the appropriate legis-
lative body (e.g., the city council) can be induced to
increase the budget, increasing demand to Dp , actual em-
ployment can be increased to Qj., with no raise in wages or
shift in the supply schedule. The new budget would be
OW^BQ^. Any increase in the budget beyond that point, how-
ever, can only result in vacancies, unless the wage rate
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14-9
Hourly
Wage
Rate
W,
>3 Q4 Q1
Number of Operators
FIGURE 14.3. Alternative Methods of Eliminating
Employment Shortfalls
-------
14-10
is increased or the supply schedule is shifted to the
right. To appreciate the correctness of this, one should
note that in order to increase the number of workers will-
ing to work beyond Q^ when we are constrained to move along
the supply curve S,, the wage must increase above W^. If
the budget is increased, say to OW^CQ , but the wage re-
mains at W^, the quantity willing to work is still Q. , but
the number that could be paid (i.e., the number budgeted
for) is Q . Thus the plant's data would' indicate that
vacancies existed in the amount represented by the dif-
ference between Q, and Q^.
3. The plant may be authorized to pay a wage less than W but
greater than W (see Figure 14.2). It will experience both
vacancies and a budget shortfall. In such a situation,
advocates of adequately staffed plants may be apt to sim-
ultaneously berate the legislative body for an inadequate
budget and to bemoan the shortage of qualified personnel.
The fact is, however, that actual employment cannot be
increased except by a raise in wages or a shift in the sup-
ply schedule.
Let us assume that in Figure 14.4 the plant is authorized
to employ Q,- workers at wage rate WV. It will not be able
to employ more than Q,- (where the supply line crosses the
wage line) workers regardless of any increases in the bud-
get, so long as the wage or supply schedule remains unchanged.
4. The plant may be authorized to pay a wage of W_ (Figure 14.5)
and to employ Q, workers — the recommended line in Figure 14.2
-------
Hourly
Wage
Rate
W,
0-6 Q5
Number of Operators
FIGURE
Wages and Budget' Shortfalls
-------
14-12
Hourly
Wage
Rate
Q3 Q1
Number of Operators
FIGURE 14.5. Wages and Vacancies
-------
The budget shortfall will be zero since Q-, is budgeted.
Nevertheless, there will be vacancies because only Q_ will
work when supply is S, and the wage is W_. There will be
a tendency to ascribe vacancies to a shortage of qualified
personnel. Indeed the employment shortfall can be elimi-
nated by increasing supply to S-,. It can also be elimi-
nated by a raise in wages to W, and a commensurate increase
in the budget which increases demand to D? (not shown).
Two conclusions, neither of which should be surprising, follow
from the foregoing discussion — if adjustments in the wage rate are
ruled out as a possible course of action. If there are no vacancies
in budgeted positions — a sign that the wage rate is at or above the
equilibrium level — an employment shortfall can be relieved only by
an increase in the budget. A shift in the supply curve above cannot
have any effect. On the other hand, if there are vacancies, a sign
that the wage rate is below the equilibrium level, relieving a short-
fall, will require an increase in the supply curve. To do so requires
such measures as subsidizing training, recruiting more intensively,
and improving the social Image of wastewater treatment jobs, super-
visory practices, job security, opportunities for advancement, and
so forth.
Improperly Qualified Employees
A plant may be improperly operated or maintained because the
people employed in it do not possess the qualifications and skills
necessary for proper performance. To determine whether such a situa-
tion exists, the manpower planner must compare the attributes of
-------
existing employees with those required by the various jobs in the
plant. This in turn requires his or her knowing these attributes
and requirements. This knowledge is best gained by well-ordered,
systematic, and comprehensive analyses. If the problem is in the
competence of the employees, an understanding is gained by a worker
analysis that may include such devices as physical examinations,
interviews, and aptitude, skills, and other kinds of tests. If the
problem is with the job structure, a job analysis that yields specific,
relevant, and comprehensive job specifications will yield the in-
formation needed.
If a comparison between workers' qualifications and job re-
quirements prove that the current employees are not adequately qual-
ified, a training program for upgrading is probably in order. It
is not usual these days to terminate employees (once they have com-
pleted their probationary periods) for such reasons as the discovery
that more qualified people should have been employed in the first
place. Such action can demoralize the remainder of the work force.
The current drive in many industries to require some form of
certification is based upon a belief that many present workers are
not qualified to do their jobs correctly. A report on the water
quality control field supports this statement:
Too often today, multimillion dollar plants produce
unsatisfactory effluents which deny desired and ob-
tainable water uses. Usually the reason is that these
expensive plants are turned over to poorly trained
personnel for operation and maintenance. Poor plant
operation can result in undue pollution of the re-
ceiving waters with the resulting loss of water uses,
such as closed swimming beaches. Poor plant mainte-
nance can be extremely costly in yet another way.
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1*1-15
Most waste treatment plants are designed and con-
structed so as to have a useful life of at least
twenty years. Improper plant maintenance can actually
reduce that useful plant life to one or two years
in extreme cases.1
The main thrust of that drive, of course, has not been to replace
the current workers but to make them certifiable by means of training
programs.
The procedures of worker and job analyses are desirable even
though the plant is adequately manned. Maintaining such a status re-
quires hiring qualified people in the future. To do this, one must
have adequate job specifications (the results of job analysis) and
effective selection procedures that accurately reveal the qualifica-
tions of the prospective employees.
Poor Use of Employees
It may be that a plant has sufficient personnel of adequate
quality but falls short of proper performance because of the poor
use of its work force. Such a situation is the converse of the one
described in the previous section. ' When a plant has a sufficient
number of employees but still is not properly operated or maintained,
it must be (if the cause is manpower) that the employees either are
not qualified or are poorly used (or both). If after worker and job
analyses have been effectively done, it is discovered that the em-
ployees are indeed qualified and jobs are well structured, the only
logical conclusion is that poor plant performance is the result of
poor use of the work force.
Federal Water Quality Administration, U.S. Department of the
Interior, Clean Water for the 1970 's: A Status Report (Washington,
D. C . , U.S. Government Printing Office'" June 1970), p. 7 0 .
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14-16
Poor Organization of Work Force
Organization of the work force refers to such matters as the
structure of job content, the assignment of personnel, and the sched-
uling of jobs. Any alteration in these that leads to better plant
performance — no change in the number of man-hours of input or the
quality of the personnel employed — may be described as an improve-
ment in the organization of work. Among the rearrangements that may
be contemplated are the conversion to or from rotating shifts, a
greater or lesser use of part-time personnel, a reassignment of per-
sonnel among the existing jobs, and a rescheduling of hours, vaca-
tions, overtime, and rest periods.
If the performance of the plant can be improved by reassigning
personnel among the existing jobs, it must be that each job was not
filled by the best qualified person among the current employees.
Such a condition often arises from the promotion process; i.e., either
employees are promoted to jobs beyond their abilities or less able
people are promoted in preference to more able ones. If ability alone
is the criterion (usually called promotion by merit), such a situa-
tion could not have arisen. Too often, however, true merit is not
the sole guiding principle. Thus under the guise of merit, either
favoritism and other forms of arbitrariness are allowed to enter Into
promotion decisions or merit is qualified or displaced by seniority.
It is always difficult to reassign personnel when demotions are
involved. In fact, if there are many demotions, the effect on em-
ployee morale can be devastating. It is probably more feasible to
change the policy so that future promotions will be more rational
-------
14-17
from an efficiency point of view. But this, too, may be difficult
to do when seniority is hindering the promotion of the most qualified
man. There are some students of manpower who maintain that promo-
tion of senior workers, rather than a pure merit system, requires
management to develop a human resource development system that almost
guarantees that senior workers are promotable.
Reducing the role of seniority may offend the senses of security
and equity of many of the employees, especially the older ones, there-
by adversely affecting their morale. This will be even more true if
reasonably objective and accurate ways of measuring merit are not
instituted at the same time. On the other hand, offsetting the ad-
verse effect on the senior employees' morale — especially if the
means 'of measuring merit are acceptable to the employees — will be
the greater chances for advancement that accrue to the younger em-
ployees. To arrive at any rational decision about changing the pro-
motional policy to include more merit and less seniority, the manpower
planner must weigh the probable consequences to morale.
Communications
"Communications" means that process whereby tasks to be accom-
plished and the manner in which they are to be performed are com-
municated downward to those persons who will actually execute them
so that the tasks will be done correctly. It also includes all man-
ner of problems that are encountered in the actual performance of
the tasks that get reported to personnel on upper rungs of the career
ladders who are able to do something about them. If it is discovered
that employees are not performing their jobs correctly, or that problems
-------
14-18
on the job persist because remedial steps have not been taken, it
may be profitable to examine the communications system.
Low Morale
"Morale" refers to the attitude of the employees toward their
jobs. If they approach them with a reasonable degree of enthusiasm,
a sense of wanting to do them correctly, and a feeling of concern
toward the overall performance of the plant, morale can be said to
be high. If on the other hand the employees are content to do as
little as they can get away with, not caring one way or the other
about the performance of the plant, morale can be said to be low.
It is not easy to determine employee attitudes at any particular
time unless there are periodic morale surveys that use systematic
procedures (usually some form of questionnaire) for measuring atti-
tudes. A special kind of morale survey is the exit interview for
employees who are in the process of quitting. This type of survey
is advantageous because the planner is interviewing those employees
who are most apt to speak their minds, but at the same time can be
disadvantageous because it focuses on those who are least apt to be
satisfied with their jobs. The best procedure for learning what the
attitudes of the employees are — in the absence of the undesirable
manifestations noted below -- may be a combination of exit interviews
and periodic surveys directed toward all of the employees.
If employee morale is low and is allowed to persist (often be-
cause management is unaware of it), it will eventually manifest itself
in one or more objective ways. Among the more easily recognized
symptoms of low morale is an increase in the incidence of disciplinary
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14-19
problems in the plant or rises in the rates of turnover, absenteeism,
or tardiness. Union representatives have their greatest success
organizing employees where there is a certain amount of unrest. On
the other hand, a strike of employees already unionized is not neces-
sarily symptomatic of low morale. It may be no more than a coolly
calculated step on the part of the union leadership to support a
bargaining position. Probably a more reliable indicator in an already
unionized plant is the number and nature of the grievances filed in
the grievance procedure or the quit rate.
Sources of Low Morale. Every aspect of the plant — its physical
makeup, the manner in which it is operated, and especially the inter-
personal relationships within it — is a potential source of low em-
ployee morale. Consequently there is a large number of potential
strategies for dealing with the problem, depending upon the specific
causes. As a result, it is difficult to make general statements about
the matter. Yet there are some areas where adjustments are commonly
made to improve morale. These are: (1) the promotion policy, (2) the
system of wage differentials, (3) the grievance procedure, and (4) dis-
ciplinary policy.
(1) Promotion policy: It may be said that the more precise
the rules governing promotion, the more consistently they are ob-
served; the better they are understood by the employees, the more
they appear to the employees to be fair; and the more frequent the
promotions, the better employee morale is apt to be. Strict seni-
ority appeals to some because it is precise, easily observed in the
sense that the minimum of judgmental decisions is required, easily
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14-20
understood, and fair in that it precludes the exercise of whim and
arbitrariness on the part of those who decide whom to promote. If
merit is to be a consideration, workers must be assured that it will
truly be recognized and rewarded, rather than serving as a mask for
favoritism.
Management cannot ordinarily do much about the aggregate pro-
motional opportunities in the plant, but it can often do something —
especially when merit is a consideration — about opening up the
opportunities to a larger portion of the work force by reducing the
number of blind-alley positions. Channels of natural movement from
one job to another can be discovered by careful job analysis and
classification. Some readjustment and rearrangement of job inter-
ests may be possible that provide greater inter-job linkage. Finally,
training programs can be instituted whereby employees may prepare
themselves for advancement.
(2) System of wage payment: The method of wage payment can
affect morale. The basic systems are time rates whereby workers are
paid according to the amount of time they spend on the jobs, and
piece rates whereby workers are paid according to their output. Most
incentive wage systems involve some form of piece rates. One that
does not is a plan for workers either to share in profits or in
reduced costs.
In many forms of employment it is not feasible to pay piece
rates. To have a beneficial effect on the morale and incentive of
the employees, piece rates require that an individual's output be
readily distinguishable from that of other workers, be easily measurable
-------
by count, weight, or some other such manner, and be under the control
of the individual employee.
A profit-sharing plan would also seem to be inapplicable in
public agency employment. On the other hand, it may be possible to
introduce a scheme for sharing in reduced costs. The questions to
be contemplated by the management of public agencies are whether to
pay flat rates (everyone the same) or rate ranges, and if the latter,
whether to adopt a progression plan based on seniority or merit.
The advantage of flat rates is the absence of discrimination,
all of the employees in the same job classification receiving the
same rate of pay. Its disadvantages are twofold: (a) an employee
cannot get a raise in pay in the absence of a general increase ex-
cept by promotion or transfer to a higher paying job, and (b) an
employee cannot be rewarded for superior performance except by pro-
motion or transfer.
The converse of these disadvantages consists of the advantages
of the rate range. If the progression plan is automatic (i.e., based
solely on length of time in the particular position), every employee
will periodically receive an increase without having to transfer or
be promoted. If the progression plan is based on merit, the employee
can earn that increase by superior performance.
Although some people may doubt that an automatic progression is
much superior to a flat rate system (insofar as employee morale is
affected), there are no serious comparative disadvantages to it. On
the other hand, a plan based on merit is open to the charge of favor-
itism. If employees believe that charge, the effect of such a system
on morale can be devastating.
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14-22
There Is no standard more important to individual employees
for judging the fairness and equity of their compensation than that
of comparing their wage with those paid in other jobs in the plant.
Their morale is bound to be lowered if they feel that their job is
worth more than it is currently paying, considering the rates paid
in other jobs. The only way to minimize such a feeling among the
employees is to base the structure of wage differentials on such con-
siderations as the skill, effort, and sense of responsibility re-
quired that are widely accepted as equitable and relatively easy to
discern as between jobs. This is best achieved by a systematic job
evaluation scheme based on a careful job analysis.
(3) Grievance procedure: It is important for employee morale
that there be procedures whereby individual employees can seek redress
for any grievances that they may entertain. A good grievance pro-
cedure should contain the following elements:
(a) The person who should judge whether or not a grievance
should be aired should be individual employees themselves.
So long as they are disturbed, it is better to give them
a hearing rather than to dismiss their grievance as fanci-
ful or without merit.
(b) Employees must be able to appeal to higher management over
the unfavorable decisions of lower management. In fact
their grievance may be directed against the latter.
(c) Employees must be free from and have no fear of reprisal
for having filed the grievance.
(d) Employees must believe that they obtained a full and fair
hearing, that the person or panel who heard their case
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14-23
was interested in and capable of searching out the ob-
jective facts of the case, and that the final decision
was objectively and equitably arrived at after due con-
sideration of those facts.
(e) Employees should be able to be represented at a hearing
by a representative of their own choosing.
It is probable that the best grievance procedures are found
in unionized plants. A procedure conducted under a collective bar-
gaining agreement has inherent advantages over those initiated by
management. Individual employees are represented by a union spokes-
man or spokeswoman and hence their case will probably be better
presented. Each employee's case will be heard by a panel that in-
cludes union representatives, offsetting any bias that might be found
among the management representatives. There may be provision for
an ultimate appeal to outside arbitration. And certainly the union
is in a better position than management to convince an employee to
withdraw a grievance that is without merit.
(4) Disciplinary policy: Disciplinary policy includes.the
rules, written or not, whereby employees are to conduct themselves
when in the plant or on the job, and the penalties that will be dis-
pensed when there are infractions of the rules. The purpose of a
disciplinary policy is to ensure that the employees will not behave
in a manner that detracts from the efficient operation of the plant.
Yet if poorly handled, it can (by lowering the morale) have the
opposite effect. It depends upon whether the employees feel that
the rules are reasonable, are applied reasonably, and are administered
with due regard for their dignity.
-------
Some reasons that disciplinary policies often go awry are
as follows:
(a) Rules that come to be regarded as sacred long after they
have become inappropriate simply because they have been
in force for so long
(b) Rules or their application that may be the result of a
single individual's judgment, reflecting his or her biases
and faulty perceptions rather than the reality that they
are supposed to regulate
(c) Rules that are not enforced consistently between employees
or over periods of time
(d) Rules that are not clearly specified or communicated to
the employees
(e) Penalties for infractions of the rules which may be applied
without regard for any extenuating circumstances that made
such infractions likely
(f) Penalties which may outweigh the gravity of the infractions
POTENTIAL CAUSES OF EXCESSIVE COSTS
A plant may be properly operated and maintained (in the sense
that it produces the expected quality and quantity of a product or
service and is as durable as anticipated), but at a higher cost than
necessary. Among the potential manpower causes of such excessive
costs are the following: (1) the employment of too many people,
(2) the employment of overly qualified, overly paid people, (3) the
payment of higher than necessary wage rates, and (4) excessive turn-
over rates.
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14-25
Too Many Employees
If a plant is overstaffed, employees must be spending a por-
tion of their time on the job in an unproductive manner: they are
performing unnecessary t^.sks (such as maintaining a set of records
that duplicate one available in another convenient and accessible
place), or they are consuming more time and energy than needed while
performing necessary tasks, or they often find themselves unproduc-
tively idle.
The process whereby such waste is exposed is often called "me-
thods analysis" and is usually performed concurrently with job anal-
ysis. It amounts to alerting the job analyst, while he or she is
engaged in the task of gathering facts about jobs, to look for and
record such waste.
Overly _Qualified Personnel
It may be that the job specifications call for higher priced
personnel than needed. It is sometimes possible for the plant to
be properly operated and maintained with less qualified people who
are obtainable at lower wage rates. If such a situation exists and
is revealed, realistic job specifications can be established by a
properly performed job analysis.
Higher than Ne_cessary_ Wage Rates
It may be that the plant is employing the right amount of
people with the proper qualifications, but is offering them higher
wages than necessary to attract them. If employment, aside from
wages, is as attractive to prospective employees as employment else-
where in the community or industry, there should be no necessity,
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14-26
so far as the proper staffing of the plant is concerned, for offering
them more than the going wage . . . that paid on the average for
similarly qualified labor by other employers in the community or
industry. Of course if there is a difference in attractiveness, the
specific plant will have to offer more or less than other employers,
depending upon whether it is more or less attractive as a place of
employment.
To determine whether the wage being offered is too high, it is
necessary to discover what other employers are offering. That infor-
mation can be obtained for some industries, localities, and occupa-
tions from either the local office or the research arm of the state
employment service. Often, however, it can be obtained only by a
wage survey; i.e., a systematically conducted inquiry directed to
the other employers. (Knowledge about the going wage can also be
helpful for deciding whether an inability to attract enough employees
is due to too low a wage.)
Of course it is not enough to learn what the going wage for a
particular occupation is. A judgment must also be made about the
relative attractiveness of the plant. It takes both to decide wheth-
er the wage being offered is too high.
Two important questions in the foregoing discussion are: Which
going wage is relevant, that paid in the community or that paid in
the industry? If a wage survey is necessary, should it be directed
to the industry or the community? The correct answers will depend
upon the kind of labor being priced and its relevant labor market.
Some occupations (e.g., clerk-typist) are used by a wide va-
riety of employers within a given community. Workers in these
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14-2?
occupations may have little need to look outside that community to
find alternative places of employment. The appropriate wage in this
case is the community wage.
On the other hand, there are some occupations that are peculiar
to one or a few industries. An elementary school teacher is prob-
ably a good example of one that is bound to a single industry. A
person pursuing such an occupation (unless she or he is willing to
change occupations) must of necessity talk to the various employers
within the industry at alternative places of employment, and that
very often will mean other communities. The appropriate wage here
is the industry one with some possible geographic variation. Some
highly skilled or technical jobs may have regional or national or
even international dimensions.
The current effort to certify many employees may change the
nature of the market for them. For example, prior to the certifica-
tion of operators in wastewater treatment plants, operators were
expected to possess physical attributes, intelligence levels, and
educational attainments commonly found in the population at large.
The traits that qualified a person to be an operator also made that
individual eligible for a wide variety of other jobs in the commu-
nity. A large number of persons holding or seeking other jobs could
qualify as operators. The wastewater treatment plant was truly in
competition for operators with other employers in the community and
had to base its wage offer on that which prevailed in the community.
The use of certification requirements will change this in two
ways: first, the chances will now be less that the agency will be
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14-28
able to recruit fully qualified personnel (i.e., persons possessing
the necessary certification) from other employers in the community.
Second, the requirement will set apart persons certified as operators
from the workers with whom they formerly competed. New persons with
the certification possess a unique qualification that makes them
alone eligible for certain jobs. In effect, a portion of a larger
labor market has now been reserved exclusively for them, and the
chances are probably good that they will prefer to operate within
its protected confines. In other words, they will be more inclined
to consider as alternative places of employment other plants in other
communities, and less other kinds of jobs in a given community. The
industry wage within a given geographical labor market area will not
tend to become the relevant one for any plant.
Excessive Turnover Rate
The costs of turnover are clear. On the one hand, each worker
who terminates after a period of work or training takes with her or
him a certain amount of experience and efficiency that newly hired
workers will lack. On the other hand, the costs of recruiting, hiring,
and training new workers rise with increased turnover rates. An
employer can lower costs of operation by reducing turnover. Of course
it cannot be reduced to zero, except over relatively short periods
of time. Employees will retire, die, and become incapacitated be-
cause of illness or accident, or will quit regardless of what an
employer may do to retain them.
Some employers may not be able to reduce their turnover rate
to that enjoyed by other employers. Some kinds of establishments
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14-29
will inevitably experience higher rates than others, depending upon
the kinds of workers they hire, the career opportunities they can
offer their employees, and the alternative work opportunities avail-
able. In general, turnover rates tend to be higher the shorter the
term of employment of employers' workers, the younger their labor
force, the more females in it, and the more of these females who are
young and married.
Some employers are able to offer employees greater career op-
portunities. At one extreme, large employers with a variety of jobs
of varying skill levels can offer their employees a lifetime of pro-
motions and movement up the job ladder. At the other extreme is
the small employer who can offer only dead-end jobs. A small retailer
may be able to promise a prospective employee no more than a lifetime
as a sales clerk. Turnover rates among waiters, waitresses, bar-
tenders, barbers, and the like tend to be high because they work in
the latter type of establishment, They gain job variety and often
promotion by occasionally changing employers.
Despite the above limitations, an employer may nevertheless be
able to lower the turnover rate. The problem is to decrease the
number of quits and discharges and to hire potentially more stable
employees. What measures will be effective in reducing quits and
discharges will depend upon the reasons for those separations. It
probably behooves an employer to conduct exit interviews to learn
more about the causes, and to maintain statistics for purposes of
analysis. It may also be desirable to determine what kind of employ-
ees will tend to "stay put."
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14-30
Whatever the causes may be, reducing quits is a matter of mak-
ing the job more attractive so that potential terminees decide in-
stead to remain with the employer. Among the inducements that may
work are higher wages, better fringe benefits, improved working con-
ditions, whatever it takes to raise employee morale, and increased
opportunities for advancement (i.e., filling more of the better jobs
by promotion from within, especially on the basis of merit).
The steps that will be effective in reducing the number of dis-
charges will probably be revealed by reviews of the disciplinary
policy, the state of employee morale, and the grievance procedure.
It is likely that modifications in one or more of these areas will be
in order.
A great deal can probably be learned about the causes of high
turnover within a geographical area by an interplant analysis. For
example a manpower planner may seek to determine whether or not turn-
over rates tend to be higher in low-wage plants. The procedure is
described below.
Let us assume that there are five plants (sources of employment)
in a state, which will be designated A, B, C, D, and E. Let us fur-
ther assume that the wage rates they pay operators and their turnover
rates for that occupation are as presented in Table 14-1. "Turnover
rate" is defined here as the ratio of the number of replacement hires
during a year to the average actual employment in the plant during
that same period of time.
In Figure 1*1.6, the data contained in Table 1*1-1 is plotted,
indicating a very strong, inverse relationship between turnover and
-------
TABLE 14-1
Wage and Turnover Rates for Operators by Plant
Plants
A
B
C
D
E
Hourly Wage Rate
$5.93
5.28
4.00
3-94
3.42
Turnover Rate
$0.24
0.13
0.40
0.32
0.42
wage rates. However, before making a judgment about the importance
of the wage differential as an explanation of the differences in turn-
over, the manpower planner may want to analyze in a similar fashion
the importance of other explanatory variables. In fact, the planner
may choose to perform a sophisticated multiple regression to deter-
mine how much of the difference in turnover rates is accounted for
by each of the explanatory variables. Other indicators of the ex-
istence of manpower problems, such as quits, discharge, and vacancy
rates, can be similarly analyzed.
As data systems are developed and computerized within each state
and planning personnel develop statistical sophistication, more soph-
isticated analyses can be performed. Such increases in analytical
abilities should be one of the goals of each manpower planner.
Notwithstanding current limitations on the types of analyses
that can be undertaken, some insight into certain types of manpower
problems may be obtained by obtaining rank orderings of occupations
by such variables as shortfall and vacancy rates and comparing actual
conditions with desired conditions. The rankings on these alterna-
tive bases may of course differ.
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14-32
Wage
Rates
$5.93
$5.28
$4.00
$3.94
$3.42
0.13
0.24 0.32
Turnover Rates
0.40 0.42
FIGURE 14.6. Relationship between Wage
and Turnover Rates
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1^-33
RankjOrderings in Absence of Objectives
If the rank order of occupations by vacancy rate is as shown
in Table 14-2, then it would be reasonable to assume that further
investigations of Operator I and maintenance helper are warranted.
TABLE 1^-2
Rank Order of Occupations by Vacancy Rate
Occupation Ranked According to
Reversing Vacancy Rate Vacancy Rate
(1) (2)
Operator I 0.15
Maintenance helper 0.12
Electrician I 0.09
Chemist 0.06
Clearly within this framework, which occupations should be the ob-
jects of further and more intensive investigations is in part a
judgmental decision. These decisions are affected by time and bud-
getary constraints in the planner's office and also by comparisons
with similar occupations. Suppose, for example, that individual man-
power planners had determined a set of occupations outside their
agency which in many important aspects were similar to the various
2
occupations within the organization. If the vacancy rates were
2
Determining what should be compounded into "similar" is not
easy. Such elements should include, however, variables such as
educational and skill requirements. Wages and working conditions
should not always be included, for as we shall see, these variables
may contribute to the cause of certain manpower problems.
-------
obtained for each of these occupations, the resulting data may be
as shown in Table 14-3. Much of the data to be used in such com-
parisons can be obtained from the employment office,
TABLE 14-3
Comparison of Vacancy Rates of Occupations
in Wastewater Treatment Plants with
Other Occupations Requiring
Similar Skills or Education
Vacancy^ Rates
for Other Occupations
Occupation
(1)
Operator I
Maintenance
helper
Electrician I
Chemist
Vacancy Rate
(2)
0.15
0.12
0.09
0.06
High
(3)
0.18
0.15
0.11
0.02
Low
(4)
0.13
0.07
0.09
0.005
Average
(Unweighted)
(5)
0.155
0.11
0.10
0.0125
The same rank ordering of occupations in the given agency by
vacancy rate is maintained with accompanying vacancy rate for the
paired occupation. One conclusion to be drawn from the hypothetical
data is that the vacancy rate for Operator I does not seem to differ
significantly from similar occupations. This does not necessarily
remove "excessive" vacancy rates among Operators I from the list of
manpower problems, but it does tend to add perspective to the problem,
for the data as displayed seem to indicate that this may be a univer-
sal problem inherent in certain types of occupations or the individuals
attracted to such occupations.
It should also be noted from the hypothetical data that a sig-
nificant difference appears to exist in the vacancy rates for chemists.
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14-35
Previously, it might have been assumed that a 6 percent vacancy rate
would place chemists on the planner's priority list of occupations
to investigate further, but if the vacancy rate for chemists in waste-
water treatment plants is higher than for chemists employed elsewhere,
it is incumbent upon the manpower planner to ascertain the reasons
for the difference.
Similar types of data analysis can and should be performed in
variables other than the vacancy rate. The type of analysis implied
by the preceding tables has relevance to the three general manpower
problem areas of recruitment, retention, and possibly to a lesser
degree, utilization. These alternative rank orderings can, upon be-
ing completed, be entered into a single table and identified by their
ordering rank order for a given problem area. Thus in Table 14-4
we see that Operator I was ranked first according to vacancy rate,
discharge rate, and employment shortfall rate, while being ranked
eighth and second, respectively, for part-time and quit rates.
Simple averages of the data in Table 14-4 may be computed and
entered into a table as shown in Table 14-5 which indicates one pos-
sible overall rank order. This rank is based upon simple averages.
It may be the case that weighted averages are more appropriate if,
for example, vacancy rates are considered indicative of more serious
problems than discharge rates.
If the appropriate facilities are available, the manpower plan-
ner can expand on the preceding type of numerical analysis and attempt
to ascertain the possible causes of certain manpower problems. This
can be partially accomplished by the use of regression techniques --
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14-36
TABLE 14-4
Rank Ordering of Occupations According to
Several Possible Problem Areas
OCCUPATION
TITLE
(1)
SUPERINTENDENT
ASSISTANT
SUPERINTENDENT
OPERATIONS
SUPERVISOR
SHIFT FOREMAN
OPERATOR II
OPERATOR I
MAINTENANCE
SUPERVISOR
MECHANICAL MAIN-
TENANCE FOREMAN
MECHANIC II
MECHANIC I
MAINTENANCE
HELPER
ELECTRICIAN II
ELECTRICIAN I
CHEMIST
LABORATORY
TECHNICIAN
STOREKEEPER
CLERK TYPIST
AUTOMOTIVE EQUIP-
MENT OPERATOR
CUSTODIAN
PAINTER
1 A8ORER
OCCUPATION RANK ACCORDING TO
VACANCY
RATE
(2)
PART-TIME
RATE
(3)
QUIT RATE
(4)
DISCHARGE
RATE
(5)
EMPLOYMENT
SHORTFALL RATE
(6)
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14-37
TABLE 14-5
Rank Order of Occupations According
to the Average Value of Several
Possible Problem Areas
Occupation Average Value of Rank Order
Operator I 2.6
Maintenance Helper 3-0
a simple example of which we introduced in the supplementary informa-
tion of chapter 13. Since, according to available information, the
relevant facilities are not universally available and because the
type of analysis to be conducted to ascertain the possible causes
of certain manpower problems are not easily explained — nor do simple
versions of them supply reliable results — we shall not pursue this
subject at this time. As progress is made in federal, state, and
local manpower planning offices and programs, this type of analysis
may be introduced.
Rank Orderings in the Presence of Objectives
Much of the material of the preceding section can be used in
working with rank orderings based upon a comparison of desired and
actual conditions. We illustrate with the use of the two examples.
The first is depicted in Table 14-6. In this table data are needed
on the desired and actual levels of some employment characteristics —
we use employment shortfalls in our example. Both the absolute and
relative differences should be obtained — although one or the other
-------
TABLE H»-6
Comparison of Desired and Actual Employment
Shortfalls by Occupation
Occupation
Desired
State
Actual
State
Absolute
Difference
Rank of
Absolute
Difference
Relative
Difference
Rank of
Relative
Difference
H
_Cr
I
OO
CO
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14-39
may be sufficient if the objectives (see chapter 11) are expressed
in only one way.
We suspect that the rank order based on relative differences
will carry more weight with management. A desired rate of 5 percent
and an actual rate of 6 percent imply a reduction of 1 percent ab-
solutely or by 20 percent of the desired rate.
So long as a single employment characteristic is being con-
sidered, little difficulty would be encountered for a knowledgeable
manpower planner. Difficulties arise, however, in comparing employ-
ment characteristics. In Table l*J-7 we provide an example of the
last issue. When relative differences are used for comparisons the
third and fourth items on the absolute comparison have equal rank.
Other changes, with actual reversal of rankings could of course occur.
SUMMARY
More than with the discussion of any of the preceding steps we
conclude this chapter somewhat arbitrarily with respect to the cutoff
point for our discussion. So much could be said about the analysis
of manpower problems that a single chapter will be inadequate. We
therefore view this chapter as primarily having suggested certain
aspects of the range of manpower problems that might befall an agency.
What is important in this chapter is not so much the insight that
might be obtained to a specific manpower problem, but rather an
appreciation for the general way in which the analysis of manpower
problems can be approached.
A considerable degree of sophistication will be required of
manpower planners to execute this step in an efficient manner. It
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TABLE 1*1-7
Comparison of Desires and Actual Employment
Characteristics for Chemist II
Characteristic
Employment
shortfall
Vacancy
Quits
Discharge
Absolute
Difference
(Percent )
10%
15
5
20
Relative
Difference
(Percent )
100$
300
100
400
Rank Order
of
Absolute
Difference
3
2
4
1
Rank Order
of
Relative
Difference
3
2
3
1
-------
will be the step into which they invest much time thinking of the
alternative possible causes for a particular manpower problem that
they feel they have identified with the help of data obtained in
previous steps. On the basis of the analysis in this step, manpower
programs will be recommended. In many cases the efficacy of the
manpower program will depend upon the accuracy of the planner's anal-
ysis of the manpower programs. Recommendations to increase budgets
without recommending an increase in wages will not eliminate employ-
ment shortfalls, for example, if their cause is low wages!
The successful completion of this step is, we believe, a prime
candidate for that step in which, over many planning cycles, manpower
planners will show the greatest relative increase in their proficiency,
This believe is held on the basis that the beginning level of pro-
ficiency will be relatively low and also on the basis that the skills
required in executing this step will be new to most new manpower
planners but are of such a kind that they may be honed on past ex-
perience at relatively faster rates than many of the skills relied
upon in the execution of other steps.
SELECTED REFERENCES
Gallaway, Lowell. Manpower Economics. Homewood: Richard D. Irwin
Inc., 1971-
Doeringer, Peter B. and Piore, Michael J. International Labor Markets
and Manpower Analysis. Lexington: D.C. Heath & Company, 1971
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15.
DEVELOPMENT OP MANPOWER PROGRAMS
In this chapter we discuss step 5: Develop manpower programs
in response to current and anticipated manpower problems. The tasks
undertaken in the execution of this step build upon the data collected
and the analyses made in the completion of previous steps. It is
important for us to emphasize that the success of the material that
is generated in this step is much more under the control of manage-
ment than are any of the other activities that the manpower planner
engages in. This observation is of course contingent upon the allo-
cation of authority within the organization.
An integral part of this step is the preparation of a manpower
plan to meet the perceived needs of the organization. Insofar as
the manpower planner must report to other individuals within the
organization, this plan might only be in the form of recommendations
for certain programs to be undertaken to ensure that the previously
identified manpower objectives be achieved. We take the position,
based in part upon evidence obtained from those organizations where
manpower planning currently exists, that the manpower planner will
for the most part only recommend action and will seldom inaugurate
programs directly. Hopefully the planner will be persuasive and
have respect within the organization such that the recommendations
have influence. In the final analysis, however, the planner is
providing recommendations that he or she may have little if any
control in implementing. This scenario indicates that in this
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15-2
particular area of responsibilities, the planner may be continually
frustrated.
PREPARATION OF A MANPOWER PLAN
The essential aspects of executing this step is the preparation
of the manpower plan or annual report that is submitted to management.
This plan should detail the various manpower needs of the organiza-
tion, including, but not necessarily limited to, the number of new
people that should be hired, the type of training new hires should
receive, the type of training that current personnel should have, and
the identification and solution of existing and expected manpower
problems. This plan should not be long and tedious, but rather
should summarize the manpower conditions of the organization in
sufficient detail to portray to management the essential features
of this condition. It should not attempt to impress management with
the complexity of the manpower planner's various activities by burden-
ing him or her with a plethora of tables and analysis. Such tables
should be available upon request, but not in the initial document.
Alternatively, the planning document may contain a summary table or
tables, followed by several tables that include more detail. There
is some advantage, however, to having the first table represent an
overall view or summary of the various manpower programs, followed
by subsequent parts that provide more detail for specific areas
that management may examine more closely should this be desirable.
The principle underlying the design and execution of this step
is the comparison between the actual and the intended manpower
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15-3
condition of the organization. It is on the basis of differences
between the actual and intended states of the organization that
programs are designed and implemented. What' the specific manpower
needs of the organization are, and the resulting activities and
programs that are undertaken to meet them, will, on specific issues,
be related to the objectives adopted by the organization. This is
equally true with the determination of what manpower planning prob-
lems might be determined to exist. There are, however, some problem
areas that are universal and quite independent of an organization's
peculiarities. Clearly, the hiring of new individuals to fill
vacancies is an example of such problems.
There will be a training need in many organizations. In many
instances new employees will have to be trained and many existing
employees will need retraining to bring them up to the standards
established within the organization and to meet technological
change. Thus some plans will have to involve the allocation of
training budgets by type of training and whether such training is
to be given to new hires or to existing employees. In conducting
the inventory of current personnel or an analysis of recent past
nires, the planner may have to determine that the quality of both
was not equal to that desired by the organization. It might be the
case, for example, that new workers were being attracted to given
occupations who were deficient in general education requirements,
or they as a group may have been skewed in their age distribution.
If such happenings have been identified as problem areas, then
specific plans will have to be made to change such matters as
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15-4
recruiting methods and aspects of employment (e.g., wages, promotion
procedures) that may tend to attract more desirable employees.
The areas of manpower planning activity that we might call
the problem resolution area will depend to a greater extent than the
preceding upon the specific objectives of the organization. Whether
a particular employment characteristic falls within the range to be
considered as a problem depends, as we have mentioned previously,
upon the specific objectives of the organization.
EFFECTIVENESS OF MANPOWER PROGRAMS
The most difficult and yet perhaps the most important aspect
of devising solutions for the resolution of given manpower problems
is the determination of what has been called the "social production
function" of specific programs. What is meant by this is simply
the relationship between the inputs that constitute a program and
its output. Alternatively, it deals with the information on how
certain manpower programs produce certain changes in manpower condi-
tions. Information must be obtained on how well increases in wage,
for example, decrease the vacancy rate or attract a higher caliber
of individuals to a particular job, or how different types of train-
ing programs are more effective for different occupations. Much of
this information can be gathered only after a considerable amount
of time has been invested in the manpower planning process.
Furthermore, the degree of sophistication needed to spell out
the details of such production functions cannot, with any reasonable
expectation of what will occur in the foreseeable future, be expected
-------
15-5
to exist at the state or local level. For this reason, in many
functional areas of government activity there is, or there are plans
for, a considerable and continuing federal effort to provide assist-
ance on these matters by obtaining specific information about the
production functions for presumably reoccurring and universal man-
power programs. State and local manpower planners should keep
abreast of such endeavors and continually be aware of the possibility
of improving their own performance by using irrformation disseminated
by the federal counterpart to their agency.
Often what knowledge we have of the effectiveness of manpower
programs is probabilistic. In the supplementary information at the
end of this chapter, we consider certain aspects of decision making
as they might pertain to a manpower planner attempting to make
recommendations as to specific manpower programs that his or her
organization should adopt. Such material as is covered in the
supplementary section also relates to rational decision making that
was alluded to in chapter 9 and the content of a management informa-
tion system. We offer the material in an appended form primarily
to avoid interruption of our development of the manpower planning
steps.
An important aspect of coping with the problems discussed
above is the relationship that individual manpower planners can
establish with complementary agencies in his area. We have discussed
some of these in previous chapters, and shall only refer briefly to
them at this time. The employment service is an invaluable source
of information on many aspects of employment. Data on wages by
-------
15-6
occupation are available, as are profiles of employee characteristics
by broad classification of occupation. The various institutions that
engage in training are also invaluable in providing assistance on
determining the effectiveness and costs of alternative training
programs — although these tasks may more appropriately be taken
over by a training officer within the organization. State and federal
departments of labor, through their publications and personal contact,
can provide considerable information that will be useful to manpower
planners in trying to determine the characteristics of their manpower
program production functions. Experience in other organizations will,
wherever possible and where appropriate with necessary adjustments,
be invaluable as basic information In responding to issues in the
planner's own organization. Even if hard data are not available from
these institutions, qualitative insight into problems can be obtained.
Such information should not be treated lightly, for not only is it
the only kind available but in some instances is the result of keen
insight on matters not easily quantifiable.
RELATIONSHIP OF OBJECTIVES AND PROBLEM AREAS
The programs or action steps designed by manpower planners will
be those that they think, on the basis of available evidence, are
essential in achieving the (preliminary) objectives identified in
step 1. In many cases, however, it will be on the basis of the
information obtained in step 5 that specific manpower objectives
will be identified. An example will Illustrate this: In the execu-
tion of step 5, and in the data collection in steps 2 and 3, the
-------
15-7
current and projected vacancy rate for a particular occupation would
have been identified. The manpower objectives might initially have
been defined as "reduce the vacancy rate so that it is less than
10 percent." Alternatively, the manpower planning objective could
have been stated as "reduce the vacancy rate by 50 percent." These
objectives may have been defined prior to information obtained on
the actual and expected vacancy rates, although there are some
problems associated with doing so.
The advantages of setting an upper limit to the vacancy are
that it does provide a target number toward which the manpower plan-
ner can aim. Furthermore, such a number could be one obtained from
information on vacancy rates in other and similar industries and
taken as somewhat of a standard by which manpower planners could
gauge their own work. The disadvantage, however, of setting an
upper bound on some characteristic such as the vacancy rate is that
it might require too little or too much effort when the rest of the
manpower program is being considered. Thus, if the actual vacancy
rate was 50 percent, it might be "unwise" (i.e., inefficient) to
attempt to reduce it to 10 percent, given the other problems (or
objectives) facing the agency. Alternatively, if the vacancy rate
was 11 percent and other problems were of considerable urgency, then
perhaps no effort should be directed toward reducing the vacancy
rate since it is so close to the targeted rate. In this case, how-
ever, saying that the target vacancy rate is less than 10 percent
is inaccurate, for it is in effect not a target. All of this, however,
is a matter of trade-offs and priorities when multiple objectives exist
-------
15-8
The objective expressed in the form of "reduce the vacancy
rate by_ 50 percent" has the advantage of perhaps defining some
degree of effort that the manpower planner should seek. It has
the disadvantage that it also may be too much or too little for
the reasons similar to those given above. If the vacancy rate was
5 percent, for example, and this was less than the national average
for similar occupations, then it would seem, unless there are com-
pelling reasons to the contrary, that the manpower planner should
not attempt to reduce this particular vacancy rate further when he
or she is experiencing conditions that are better than other organi-
zations having similar occupations.
It is clear that the exact form of manpower objectives, if
they are to be expressed as specific numerical goals, cannot be
stated until the basic data gathered in steps 3 through 5 have been
analyzed. In step 6 this information is to be taken and programs
devised that are to contribute to the achievement of the specific
objectives.
FURTHER ISSUES IN THE ANALYSIS OF
THE MANPOWER PLANNING PROBLEM
A further word is required on analysis. In the execution of
step 5 we suggested a format whereby the manpower planner obtains
a rank ordering of possible manpower problems. We have, on the
other hand, in chapter 9, presented some criticism of the priority
approach to solving manpower planning problems or allocating train-
ing funds. One reason for such criticism is that rank orderings
give only a part, and sometimes a deceptive part, of the issues
related to assessing the nature and magnitude of an organization's
-------
15-9
manpower and training problems. Listing such problems in some order
does not necessarily give appropriate instruction on how to allocate
the organization's limited resources in resolving such problems. It
is not clear, however, that we can offer any viable solution to this
dilemma, given the constraints under which we are presumed to be
operating. We shall content ourselves with indicating some general
problem areas and offering some cautions. Although not completely
instructing manpower planners on how to cope with such issues, we
shall at least introduce them to some dangers and thereby indicate
to them areas for future research.
In the examples that follow, we shall concentrate on only two
possible problem areas — discharges and vacancies. Our analysis
will be based upon the reasonable assumption that there are costs
and benefits to reducing a given problem area. We shall therefore
refer to the costs and benefits of problem resolution and shall,
for the purposes of our analysis, assume that all such costs and
benefits are well known to the manpower planner.
Some additional assumptions are required. We shall initially
assume, for simplification only, that the benefits from resolving
the problems of discharges and vacancies are equal. Normally we
would also suppose that the benefits would increase at a decreasing
rate. This would indicate that the incremental or marginal benefits
of problem resolution are positive but diminishing. We shall save
this more realistic assumption for a subsequent example and content
ourselves at this point with the assumption that the benefits are
identical and constant. This, as we shall see, permits us to
-------
15-10
emphasize the cost side of problem resolution. For this aspect of
problem resolution we shall suppose that as we begin to resolve a
given problem the costs of further resolution increase, and do so
at an increasing rate. This is just another way of saying that
there exist diminishing returns to efforts in resolving specific
problems. This implies that the marginal or incremental costs of
problem resolution are positive and increasing.
In Figure 15.1, we illustrate the positive and increasing
marginal costs for discharges (MCn) and vacancies (MC ). We have,
for purposes of illustration only, assumed that the marginal costs
for resolving the problem of discharges starts lower but rises
more steeply than does the marginal costs for vacancies. It is
MCr
Level of
Problem
Resolution
FIGURE 15.1. Illustration of Differing
Cost Relationships
-------
15-11
the nature of marginal cost curves that the area under the curve
measures the total cost of the activity. Thus in Figure 15.1 area
ABC denotes the total costs of reducing discharges by amount AC.
The marginal costs of this rate of problem resolution is denoted
by the height of the curve at that point, namely CB.
The efficient allocation of limited resources to completing
ends requires that resources should be allocated to an activity
until the marginal benefit of doing so is equal to the marginal
costs. Thus an efficient allocation of funds to the resolution
of discharges and vacancies would require that sufficient funds
be allocated to each until the marginal benefits from doing so are
equal to their respective marginal costs. Since in this sequel we
have assumed that benefits are identical, such a rule requires that
resources be allocated between discharge resolution and vacancy
resolution until the marginal costs of doing so are equal to each
other and to the common benefit. Thus if only ABC amount of resources
is available, all should be allocated to the resolution of discharges,
for at that point the marginal costs are equal to AA' and CB.
The danger with the rank ordering method is that some prac-
titioners will feel that funds should be spent on the top-ranked
item until either the funds are exhausted or the problem is resolved.
If the latter, then the second problem is taken up. This is generally
not the best procedure. Under the assumptions we have made (i.e.,
equal benefit for similar reductions in the problem), the optimum
strategy from an economic point of view is to allocate funds in such
a way as to keep marginal costs of the various problems equal.
-------
15-12
Insofar as the cost structure differs among problem areas, then
differing allocations should be made.
We have already indicated how the resources should be allocated
if amount ABC is available. Suppose that resources in an amount equal
to the sum of areas ADE and AA'DE are available. When such is the
case, both problem areas should be resolved at the rate of AE. At
such a rate there is an equality between their marginal costs, namely
DE. This implies that additional resources expended on each problem
has the same benefit. If more resources are available, the allocation
between discharges and vacancies should be continued in such a manner
as to always equate marginal costs. Thus with a budget equal to the
sum of AGF and AA'HI, the allocation should be made in such a manner
that discharges are being reduced at rate AG and vacancies at rate
AI. At such allocations the marginal costs are equal at GF and IH.
Note, however, that the rate of problem resolution is not equal,
nor are the total allocations to each problem area equal.
The preceding examples were simple and ignored another important
aspect of allocating scarce resources. Resources should not be
allocated to any activity if the incremental benefit received there-
from is lower than the incremental cost. In order to illustrate
this and related issues, we need to change our model somewhat and
assume that the benefits from the resolution of discharges and
vacancies are different and that they are positive but diminishing.
To emphasize this aspect of allocation, we shall simplify in another
direction and assume that the marginal costs of problem resolution
are the same for both discharges and vacancies.
-------
15-13
In Figure 15-2 we illustrate a situation where the marginal
costs for problem resolution are equal, but the benefits from doing
so are not. The curves noted as MEL, and MB are the marginal benefits
from reducing vacancies and discharges respectively. The area under
example is to allocate resources so as to keep marginal benefits
equal. (Note that at this point we would also be satisfying the
general requirement that marginal benefit equals marginal cost. )
This rule indicates that with very limited resources an allocation
is made only to the resolution of the vacancies problem. As budgets
increase, both vacancies and discharges are allocated resources. In
this illustration we can indicate another important rule: At no
time should the activity be pushed beyond point A on ME>V or beyond
point B on MB,,. To do so would imply that the benefits obtained
MCV=MCD
Level of
Problem
Resolution
FIGURE 15-2. Illustration of Differing
Benefit Relationship
-------
from further problem resolution are not worth the extra cost to the
organization. Only at the position X (where MBV and MB~ intersect)
should the allocation to each problem be identical.
The preceding examples are intended to emphasize some of the
difficulties in making allocation of resources either to satisfy
training needs or to resolve other perceived manpower problems.
There is no easy "rule of thumb" that can be extracted from the
analysis other than that in the absence of severe resource restric-
tions some allocation should be made to each training or problem
area. The weights attached to such allocation could be based upon
judgmental decisions regarding the cost structure of different prob-
lems and the perceived weights attached to certain objectives. The
lower and less steep the marginal cost of a problem resolution, the
more likely it will be that greater allocations should go to that
problem area. This of course need not hold if differing benefit
functions are assumed. Furthermore, it is not clear what informa-
tion a rank ordering in objective functions will show — other than
satisfying possibly misinformed managements.
In Figure 15.2 vacancies initially appeared to have the highest
priority in the organization's objective functions. This advantage
is quickly lost, however, to discharges. Even if MB^ were every-
where above MB , there should not be an allocation of resources to
V until that problem is resolved. If "solving" the vacancy problem
meant, In the manager's point of view, a movement to position E, we
clearly have a misallocation of resources -- resolving the problem
is costing the organization more than the benefits It receives. The
-------
15-15
problem of vacancies is "resolved" at A and discharges at B. This
observation implies that an efficient organization will always have
some positive vacancy and discharge rate.
All of the preceding is not purposely intended to frustrate
the planner, although well it may, but rather to caution him or her
about simple allocation procedures. Allocation issues are complex
and the planner should realize that at this stage of development in
manpower planning it would be expecting too much to go beyond such
cautionary matters, but even this is a step in the right direction.
GENERAL PROBLEM AREAS FOR MANPOWER PROGRAMS
In executing step 4 the manpower planner will have assessed
the number of additional workers that will be required within a
given time period. Such individuals will be obtained from either
the external or internal labor market. In either case, some aspects
of recruitment will have to be undertaken -- the job will have to
be advertised to the external as well as the internal labor market.
It is not the direct responsibility of the manpower planner to
engage in the actual task of recruitment but rather to supply that
information to those individuals in the organization that have the
responsibility of recruitment. Such an individual might be classified
within the organization as the personnel officer. If such a division
of labor exists within the organization, the manpower planner must
work in cooperation with the personnel officer in determining the
appropriate types of people to which specific recruitment will be
directed. The planner should provide the personnel officer with
-------
15-16
information similar to that obtained for the execution of step 1.
This would include, for example, the descriptions for each occupa-
tion. He or she should also supply the personnel officer with
information regarding whether in the past the organization has been
able to attract appropriately qualified personnel to the specific
occupations within the organization.
The second general area which provides some framework for
classification of general manpower problems is the retention of
existing personnel. As previously mentioned one set of manpower
problems that may confront the organization is the existence of
excessive transfers or separations from a particular occupation.
The cause and effect of such terminations should whenever possible
be assessed and from such information a program devised to eliminate
it. This is to imply that if there is a high termination rate it
should'be determined whether or not this is due to the relatively
low wages that are paid, the absence of career ladders, the poverty
of training, or the previous hiring of people unsuited either by
education or temperament for the job. If these problems have been
identified in a manner that contributes to the manpower planning
process a considerable degree of confidence in the designation of
action steps or specific manpower programs is made less difficult.
The third general area of manpower issues for which programs
may be devised is that of the use of existing personnel. It is not
clear what the appropriate role of the manpower planner should be
in this area. It Is unclear whether manpower planners should merely
identify problems related to manpower utilization or once Identified
-------
15-17
to suggest solutions for them. If manpower planners are to take
an active role in developing action steps to eliminate utilization
problems, they will have to do so in conjunction with those individ-
uals who are more knowledgeable about the technical aspects of em-
ployment and training within the organization. We have addressed
ourselves to some aspects of this issue in the discussion of step M.
We continue with the position that problems of utilization are more
technological and should initially be brought to the attention of
the manpower planner by those that in some agencies would be working
in the office referred to as "operations and maintenance."
Perhaps the most important aspect in developing manpower pro-
grams, at least as judged by the amount of time and resources
devoted to it by many organizations, is the role of training. In
trying to understand the dimensions of an organization's training
program the planner should be concerned about the following general
types of questions:
1. Who is to be trained? (This means identifying the type
of individual to be trained and attracted to the industry.)
What is the level of education, age, and sex, that we
desire to attract and train? How are we to obtain in-
dividuals for a given occupation from the internal or
the external labor market?
2. Are individuals to be trained for entry-level positions,
with career opportunities and upward mobility, or for
positions that have little opportunity for advancement?
-------
15-18
3. What prerequisite skills should be expected of those who
enter a particular training program? How are those skills
to be affected by the way new and additional employees
are recruited?
4. What tasks are the graduates of such training programs
expected to perform? Is the training that they receive
related to those expectations?
5. Do existing training programs have the ability to satisfy
current and projected needs? If not, what types of
additions to existing training programs are required?
6. Where is training to be given and what type of training
Is to be given? Is the training to be of the Institutional
type or on-the-job training?
Many of the answers to these questions cannot be quantified.
Furthermore, they are questions the answer to which must be provided
by the training officer. But they are questions, nevertheless, with
which the manpower planner must continually wrestle and be knowledge-
able about.
ANNUAL MANPOWER REPORT
Previously we have suggested that the manpower planner, in
preparing an annual report for management, should attempt to provide
a one-page summary of the more important aspects of the manpower
characteristics of the organization. Having made this suggestion,
however, we admit to considerable difficulty in accomplishing this
task. If one is willing to accept (as we are) that for many
-------
15-15*
organizations the important continuing decisions are those related
to the hiring of new employees and the training of new and existing
employees, then a one-page annual report that summarizes such issues
can be made. We illustrate such a report in Table 15-1.
Since we have suggested that manpower planning have a planning
horizon of at least five years, it seems only reasonable to suggest
that the annual report contain information relevant to the planning
horizon. Again in an effort to keep the report concise, the format
suggested in Table 15-1 is detailed information on new hires and
training requirements for the current year and an average of the
succeeding years. The data from which these averages are obtained
will of course be found in subsequent tables that would comprise
the totality of the annual report to the management of the organization,
The disadvantage of showing the .average of all of the remain-
ing years in the planning horizon is that it hides any trends,
whether positive or negative, that may exist in the data. There is
some comfort in knowing that if the trend is uniform this will be
indicated by the average — being greater than the current require-
ments if a positive trend exists and smaller if a negative trend
exists. If the manpower planning data determine that there is no
trend but cyclical behavior, with some years requiring greater
efforts than others, then such information will be buried in the
averages. Since all this information is provided in subsequent
tables, we do not consider this a serious shortcoming.
-------
TABLE 15-1
Annual Report on New Hires and Training by Occupation for 1975
Occupation
1. Chemist I
2. Chemist II
3.
5 •
New Hires
1975
Total Training 1975
' o
H
0
rv>
/
y
o
H
/
/
O
IV)
/
/
GO
M
/
y
GO
r\j
1
1
Total
^^^
^^
Average Annual
New Hires
1976-81
Average Annual Training
1976-81.
o
M
«/
7
/b
o
ru
/
/
o
H
/
/
O
hJ
/
/
GO
M
/
/
GO
r\j
/
/
Total
.^
^^
VJl
I
ro
o
Training for new hires.
''Training for current personnel.
-------
15-21
The information contained under the training requirements,
particularly those related to the training of existing personnel,
refers not to what is needed in the totality but to what is
planned for each year within the planning horizon. The meaning of
this will become more apparent when we consider training specifi-
cally in explaining subsequent tables.
Equal in importance to consideration in plans for new hires
and training, although the content possibly occurring on a more
sporadic basis, at least in the long run, are problems associated
with the identification and solutions to specific manpower problems.
A suggested format for a summary table regarding these is found in
Table 15-2.
Determination of New Hires and Their Training Needs
For each year in the planning horizon, we have obtained an
estimate of how many people need to be brought into a specific
occupation. These we have referred to as new hires, although they
should not be considered necessarily as new hires to the organiza-
tion, since a person entering a particular occupation for the first
time might be a transfer from some other occupation within the
organization. Such information has of course been obtained in the
execution of steps 2 and 3, where projections of additional employees
that will be needed due to expansion of employment and the replace-
ment of existing employees have been made. The type of training
that each of these new hires will require will in part be a function
of the labor supply source from which they were obtained. Employees
-------
TABLE 15-2
Identification and Proposed Solutions to Manpower Problems
Occupation
Problem
Area(s )
Possible
Causes
Proposed
Solution(s )
Anticipated
Cost
Anticipated
Change
Budgeted
Funds
Budgeted
Shortfall
H
Ul
I
r\j
no
-------
15-23
who come from external labor markets may require different training
from those in the internal labor market. It is not expected, how-
ever, that the manpower planner make these determinations of what
training is required for different types of employees. This
specific aspect of the manpower plan should be obtained from (or
completed in conjunction with) the training officer. Upon obtaining
such information, however, the manpower planner should display the
information in a way suggested in Table 15-1.
In order to obtain the necessary information on tr-aining,
manpower planners will have to complete several tasks: They will
have to provide information to the training officer as to the number
of new hires and the expected sources from which they will be obtained,
and they will have to provide the training officer with information
regarding training needs of current employees. The first of these
tasks would have been obtained In the execution of step 3- The more
complete this information, the better assistance the manpower plan-
ner will obtain from the training officer. For example, if the man-
power planner can tell the training officer that not only will a
certain number of the new hires into a specific occupation come into
the organization from the external labor market (with no previous
experience in the plant) but also relate their general educational
background, the training officer is aided not only in determining
the appropriate current program but also in devising future training
programs. The basis for this information to be supplied to the
training officer is found in Table 15-3, chapter 13.
As a result of the forecasts of future employment characteris-
tics and of their consultation with the training officer, manpower
-------
15-24
planners will be able to complete tables such as Table 15-3 for each
year in the planning horizon. By summing the information for each
year and finding the average, they thereby obtain information by
which they complete a portion of the annual manpower report.
TABLE 15-3
New Hires and Training Needs
by Occupation for 1976
Occupation
New Hires
Type of Training Required
OJT.l
OJT.2
C.I
C.2
S.I
S.2
In Table 15-3 the training listed is training required. This
need not equal the types and levels of training recommended in the
annual manpower report. It is required that we spend some time in
developing the reasons for these differences.
Determination of Training Plan
The training efforts of the organization may be broadly clas-
sified as to the training of new employees and the training of exist-
ing employees. It is doubtful that the training budget will be
allocated in such a way, and there Is no overriding reason why it
should be. Training resources will be available to the organization,
and it will be a determination of the management, with the assistance
of the manpower planner and the training officer, how these funds are
-------
15-25
allocated not only between existing and new employees but also among
the different types of specific training programs. This implies that
at some point within the organization a determination must be made
as to the allocation of resources toward different training programs.
The organization should determine the most efficient use of its train-
ing funds, independent of any broad classification of training new or
old employees. Such a procedure is unlikely to be followed, however,
because the requisite information will not be available and many
managers will think in terms of broad divisions of training funds.
This being the case some general, but possibly useful, information
to guide such allocation can be obtained.
If the organization has been hiring a caliber of new employees
who are superior to existing personnel, then this might be taken as
a suggestion for allocating more funds to training old employees.
If the reverse hiring practices have occurred, the allocation of
training resources would be weighted toward the training of new
employees. In any event, what is required is that something be known
about the productivity of training resources, depending upon those
who receive the training. We have already indicated that this is a
difficult area from which to obtain the necessary information. The
only rule of thumb that we have suggested is that in general some of
each type of activity (training) will be undertaken. This indicates
that some new hires and some existing employees, although not
necessarily all, should receive some training.
A further problem exists. After the current employment char-
acteristics of the organization have been measured, the number of
-------
15-26
existing employees who need some kind of training may easily exhaust
current training resources and in some cases may represent several
multiples of the annual training resources of the organization.
Under these conditions, and given some presumed need to obtain and
train new employees, it is unrealistic to assume that all of the
training needs of existing employees can be satisfied within a
given year. This requires that some plan be adopted whereby the
training needs of current employees be satisfied over some pre-
determined time span. When such allocations are made, it may be
determined that presumed benefits from training existing employees
outweighs the benefits of training some of the new employees. In
such cases all of the new employees who do not receive training at
the time of their hiring, but who do need some training, will be
added to the inventory of untrained existing employees at some
future date.
The allocation decided upon by the manpower planner and train-
ing officer should be illustrated in tables following the format
suggested by Tables 15-4 and 15-5. These in turn can then be
accumulated into a table such as Table 15-6, which in turn are
accumulated and averaged for inclusion in the annual manpower report
TABLE 15-4
Allocation of Training Resources
for New Hires for 19?6
Type of
Training
Budget
Allocation
Number to
be Trained
Shortfall
of Training
-------
15-27
TABLE 15-5
Schedule for Training Current Personnel
for Draftsmen II
Year
1975
1976
Type of Training
o
H3
H
O
H3
IX)
O
M
O
[VI
CO
H
CO
rv>
Total
Anticipated
Costs
Budgeted
Funds
Budgeted
Shortfalls3
Adjust for current shortfalls.
TABLE 15-6
Total Training Needs by Occupation for 1976
Occupation
Type of Training Required
OJT.l
OJT.2
C.I
C.2
S.I
S.2
-------
15-28
One of the underlying assumptions for the completion of
Table 15-5 might be to complete the training effort by the end of
the current planning horizon. In our examples this would be 1981.
This does, of course, have to be tempered by the possibilities of
not obtaining the necessary resources. In the execution of step 3
we suggested — but did not take up in detail — that the manpower
planner forecast expected budgetary levels and allocations. There
may be some value in doing this even though it may be nothing more
than some extrapolation from past experience — a datum we did ask
the manpower planner to obtain.
In Table 15-7 we have suggested that for each year the planner
obtain information on the resources necessary to satisfy the train-
ing plan for each year in the planning horizon. Such a table would
list the amount necessary to train those for whom plans are being
made, the amount of money that is expected to be available if the
future continues c_s in the past, and the anticipated budgeted short-
fall. The purpose of such a table is to indicate to the management
of the organization what the manpower planner considers to be a
reasonable plan for meeting the training needs of the organization
and the budget shortfalls, if any, that such a plan engenders. It
also represents the planner's expectations of what resources are
needed and what resources will be available if the plan is an indi-
cation of the future. Insofar as shortfalls occur, this information
will be useful to the manager in determining whether increased allo-
cations are to be made to the training aspects of the organization.
-------
15-29
It will also provide information on the appropriate allocations to
be made in the future, should the manager decide to change current
practices.
TABLE 15-7
Training Budget Requirements
Year
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
Required
Training
Budget
Anticipated
Training
Budget
Anticipated
Budget
Shortfall
The manpower planner should, however, make contingency plans
on the basis of no such increased allocations. An example of such
a table is that illustrated in Table 15-8. The important aspect
of this table is that it indicates the training shortfall that will
occur if no changes are made in the resources devoted to training.
Resolution of Manpower Problems
In the previous step we have provided a method for presenting
a rank ordering of possible manpower problems by occupation. We
have, however, in this step and also in the chapter on planning,
noted severe shortcomings with this common practice. These short-
comings are not so much with the issue of rank ordering itself, but
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TABLE 15-8
Actual and Desired Training Requirements
Year
Desired
Number to
be Trained
Number
That Can
Be Trained
Shortfall
Accumulated
Shortfall
with some of the possible uses to which such orderings may be placed.
These cautions should be kept in mind as we proceed.
In providing for a plan for the resolution of manpower prob-
lems there are three major issues that the manpower planner must
confront:
1. How to resolve the particular manpower problem
2. What resources will be required
3. What resources will be available
The issue of how to resolve a manpower planning problem is a question
of which manpower program to adopt. The problem of the level and
allocation of budget is one concerned with how much of the organiza-
tion's limited resources should (or can) be allocated to a specific
problem.
Again the problem of allocation might in some people's minds
be approached on a step-wise manner by first allocating the organiza-
tion's total manpower resources between the resolution of manpower
problems and the training of new and existing employees. This is
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an artificial dichotomy, however, for the information that would
be required to make this general allocation in an efficient manner
is also that information necessary to allocate funds between prob-
lems and training on an individual basis. Special interests may
not allow such efficient solutions, however, and the demands upon
data sources and analysis are presently too great. We would obtain
benefits and costs of each program — whether problem resolution or
training — and then allocate the limited resources to maximize the
excess of benefits over cost. If we had such information we would
not need to make an initial allocation between problem solving and
training.
There is one overriding consolation that helps to mitigate
some of the frustrations the manpower planner will face in trying
to allocate resources to perform different tasks. This consolation
is related to the amount of information or directive which is pro-
vided by the management of the organization. It is quite possible
that officials of the organization will provide such detail in the
objectives which they wish to have filled that little scope is left
for the manpower planner to worry about the allocation of the
organization's funds. Some may go so far as to suggest that the
problem of allocation is not the manpower planner's concern. If
"concern" means "actual decision to allocate," we would agree. If
it means to take into account in considering alternative plans, we
disagree. Alternative suggestions for the allocation of funds is
an integral part of a manpower plan. It is the basis, for example,
of determining how many people should be trained each year. The
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manpower planner must realize that while training is important, not
all problems are amenable to training.
Allocation of Scarce Funds: An Example
We now discuss one method for allocating limited funds to va-
rious activities that we have not discussed previously, although it
could be applied to previous issues. In Table 15-9 we illustrate
a series of manpower problems for different occupations. We include
in this table an estimate of the budgeted amount that would make
that manpower problem acceptable to management. The total of such
amounts represents an estimate of the total cost that will be needed
to solve the problems in some acceptable manner. This does not
necessarily mean that each problem will be taken to its zero point.
The next step is to compare the required amount with that amount
which is expected to be available from various sources. Suppose,
as in Table 15-9, that the required amount is $10,000 and the amount
expected is only $7,000. This means that some reduction will have
to be made. One method for reducing budgeted amounts is to reduce
them by the same proportion such that the allocation recommended
would be seven-tenths of that which would be required to bring each
of the problem areas within a reasonable area.
This method of allocation is rife with problems. Nevertheless,
it is a form of analysis that in most cases is superior to that of
working down a priority list until funds are exhausted. Variations
in allocations can be made by weighing the different categories.
This is also illustrated for different weighting schemes in Table 15-9.
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TABLE 15-9
Budgets for Resolution of Training and Manpower Problems
Training or
Problem Area
Training
Type A
Training
Type C
Wage
Increase
TOTAL
Required
Funds
$ 5,000
2,500
2,500
$10,000
Available
Funds
$ 4,000
2,000
1,000
$ 7,000
Unweighted
Reallocationa
$ 3,500
1,750
1,750
$ 7,000
Weighted Reallocation
(Db
$ 4,200
2,100
700
$ 7,000
(2)C
$ 4,200
1,400
1,400
$ 7,000
b
Weights were 7/10 of the required funds for each.
Weights were 6/10, 3/10, 1/10 of the available funds.
'Weights were 6/10, 2/10, 2/10 of the available funds.
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A possible problem with the redistributions is when the allo-
cation rule calls for more of the total funds than are available
and when the transfer of funds is not allowed. The system depicted
in Table 15-9 works only when all that is given is a total budget —
the $7,000. If an allocation is given (the third column), with no
transfer rights, the manpower planner has little to do but accept
the allocation and, in most cases, spend all of the funds. In such
cases the management, or whoever made the allocation, has presumably
given the planner a solution to the problem, although not necessarily
a correct one.
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: SOME ASPECTS
OF THE LOGIC OF DECISION MAKING
Some reflection upon the interrelationship among several se-
quential or simultaneous wants would result in the perception of
some cause and effect to these events. Such reflection might add
credence to the notion that everything depends upon everything else.
Further reflection would, however, indicate that some events are
more important than others in causing or being related to a specific
event in time. An understanding of this phenomenon will help us in
understanding the purposes of establishing what are often called
"models" of behavior. Models are used in many of the social and
physical sciences and are attempts to simplify a particular problem
so that it is manageable and conducive to analysis.
A model may be formally defined as an abstract representation
of reality, which brings out the relevant aspect of a particular
question and neglects all other aspects. All sciences use models.
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A model reflects a definite idea about reality. In other words,
a model is a simplified representation of reality or, more specifi-
cally, a reproduced segment of reality. We illustrate schematically
the modeling process in Figure 15.3-
That models do involve an abstraction or simplifying process
of reality will also be emphasized when it is noted that models also
contain simplifying assumptions about the relationships of certain
characteristics in the real world. Many relationships in the real
world might be quantified and represented by functional relation-
ships that follow sojnewhat complex, although regular,' patterns.
Simplifying assumptions that are contained in models might, for
example, represent a particular relationship that in the real world
is approximately a straight line by an exact straight line. In
other words, a straight line may be used to represent a relation-
ship that in fact may not be perfectly so. However, this simplifi-
cation is used because the gain in manipulative or analytical ease
more than offsets the consequences of a small error by assuming a
linear relationship, when in fact the actual relationship is not
exactly linear.
The value of any model is its ability to predict the occurrence
of future events. How accurate such predictions are will in part be
reflected in how successful the model was in making simplifying
assumptions, yet capturing the essential aspects of reality. The
relationship between the model's predictions and reality is illustrated
schematically in Figure 15-4. In this figure we have indicated that
the model may be used to predict future events and that such future
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Modeling
Process
FIGURE 15.3. Schematic View of Models and Reality
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Modeling
Process
Passage of
Time
The Occurrence
of
Future Events
Model of
Segment
of
Reality
Application
of Logic
Interpretation
Process
Predictions of
Future Events
FIGURE 15.4. Modeling and Predictions
of Future Events
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events occur in reality through the passage of time. Furthermore,
it illustrates that we may compare and interpret the predictions,
made through the use of the model, with those events that actually
do occur through the passage of time.
Models for Decision Making
In this section we wish to review certain elementary aspects
of the theory of decision making. In many textbooks dealing with
this subject it is mentioned that in certain fields there are two
general types of models, one often referred to as "models of optimal
choice" and the other one of "probability models." In what follows
we shall attempt to combine these in examining some of their general
characteristics.
Models of optimal choice deal with deriving those procedures
necessary for the selection for the best course of action when
several alternative courses of action are possible. Such models
generally include the following elements:
1. A set of possible alternative courses of action from
which the actor may choose
2. A set of possible events which are associated with each
alternative course of action
3. A value or payoff as a consequence of each event
4. Some knowledge about the change of each event that is
occurring
In general there will exist at any point in time more than
one course of action that a person can take when confronted with a
particular situation. In the simplest of all cases, one can either
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act or not act, or choose or not choose. This is reflected in the
existential discussions in what is referred to as the "either or"
decision — not to act is also itself an action or decision. Although
many acts may be possible as a consequence of a certain set of situa-
tions facing some actor, not all acts should be included in a model
of decision making because prior knowledge and experience may indi-
cate either that such acts are not likely contenders to be the optimal
act or that such actions are not directly related to the end point to
which the model is directed.
Thus to take an overly simplified example, we might consider
among the possible actions that someone employed as a state manpower
planner might take when confronted with the requirement to act in
response to an order to allocate training funds in an efficient
manner. Individual manpower planners'might have as their set of
possible actions the distribution of such funds to existing employees,
with the intent of telling them to buy more education, the distribu-
tion of funds to existing training institutions for them to establish
institutional type training, the distribution of funds to individual
plants or agencies to assist them in establishing on-the-job train-
ing, or the distribution of funds to high schools to advertise the
career opportunities in the field. Clearly, for a variety of reasons
the first and last types of actions, which are in principle possible,
are not likely to be in the optimal set because of prior information
or prior restraints on the elements of that set. Thus the two acts
that the manpower planner might legitimately consider are those of
providing for institutional training and on-the-job training.
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Continuing with the example of the decision of what kind of
training to provide — the concept of an event associated with each
act in this case might be related to the quality of the trainees
recruited to the particular training program. We might classify
these trainees as "good," "fair," and "poor." For simplicity we
might further assume that (1) the same trainees would be attracted
to either the institutional or on-the-job training, and (2) whatever
type of trainee we assume would be attracted to such a program, all
would be of the same quality. Thus if we were to assume that the
event following the decision to have institutional training was that
we would attract good recruits, then we would assume that all of
the recruits would be good; similarly if we decided to go with on-
the-job training. These assumptions will be relaxed subsequently.
In any event, when we review what we have done so far, the acts
that the person can choose among would be to institute a particular
training, and the events associated with this act would be the
recruiting of a particular quality of trainee.
The payoff or value associated with each event could, in the
instance of our training example, be the cost saving in the operation
that would occur because of the training that was given to a partic-
ular type of recruit. Alternatively, it might be some dollar value
associated not so much with the cost saving that occurs in the opera-
tion but in the improvement of the output of the plant. In any
event, we shall assume for the subsequent analysis that a dollar
value may be associated with each payoff.
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We indicate these relationships between acts, events, and
payoffs in Figure 15.5, where we have provided an example of what
is referred to as a "decision tree." We have attached to each
event a dollar value, the nature of which will be explained more
fully below. But for the time being, it is necessary to say that
we assume in what follows that if we provide institutional training
to people of good quality, the payoff is the greatest. But the
payoff is also the lowest if we provide institutional training to
recruits of poor quality on the assumption that the quality of
recruits may be so bad that they cannot profit from the "book learn-
ing" that occurs in institutional training. This is contrasted with
the possibility that recruits of high quality, though providing a
high payoff when given on-the-job training, would give the highest
payoff if provided with institutional training. This assumes some
difference between the type of training offered in institutional
vs on-the-job training. However, on the other hand we assume that
if poor quality recruits are obtained, on-the-job training, due to
its very nature, will result in a higher payoff than institutional
training.
One final comment before we proceed: Some statement is required
concerning the fourth item that is contained in any optimal choice
mechanism. What is necessary in making any decision is some measure
of the likelihood of each of the specified events occurring. At one
extreme in the spectrum of our degree of knowledge is the state of
perfect knowledge where one knows in advance that an event will
occur. In such a case, there is but one possible event to be
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Quality of
Act Recruits
^_______— - Good
/ ~~~~~- Poor
"Payoff"
[Cost Saving]
$35,000
10,000
5,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
FIGURE 15.5. Example of Decision and Uncertainty
-------
associated with each course of action and one payoff associated
with each event. This we illustrate in Figure 15.6, which is really
a shortened version of what we illustrated in Figure 15-5, for in
Figure 15.6 we have assumed that we know with certainty that the
type of recruit we shall obtain is a poor quality recruit; there-
fore the payoff, if we go with institutional training, is $5,500,
and if we go with on-the-job training, it is $10,000. Life is not
so simple, however, and complete certainty is often not attainable.
We have, therefore, imperfect or impartial knowledge that some event
will occur.
Our main problem then will be that of representing the likeli-
hood of each of the possible events occurring. It is at this point
where probability theory plays an important role in decision making
and in the establishing of a management information system. Proba-
bility theory provides certain procedures for the assignments of
weights to the occurrence of each possible event. These weights,
which may be interpreted as reflecting the degree of knowledge or
belief that a certain event will in fact occur, will vary from 0.00
to 1.00. A weight of 1.00 represents a belief that the event will
occur with certainty, whereas a weight of 0.00 indicates the belief
that the event is impossible and in fact will not occur. Events
that are believed to be near certainty will have weights associated
with them near 1.00, and those that are less likely to occur will
have weights that are less than 1.00. It should also be noted that
if only one event in the set of events can occur, but one of them
must in fact occur, the sum of the probabilities or weights given
-------
Act
Quality of
Recruits
Payoff
Poor
$5,000
Poor
$10,000
FIGURE 15.6. Shortened Example of Decision Making
with Certainty
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to each of the individual events must sum to 1.00. This of course
is equivalent to asserting that one of the events from the set of
all possible events will, with certainty, occur.
Criteria for Decision Making
We must now return to our set of those elements that would
occur in any optimal choice procedure and add a fifth element: some
criterion by which a particular course of action among all the pos-
sible actions is selected. What we have illustrated in the previous
diagrams is the consequences of alternative acts, but we have yet
to provide some rational method for choosing a particular course
of action.
The criteria for choosing a particular course of action can be
classified into two broad categories: criteria for decision making
under certainty and criteria for decision making under uncertainty.
We shall first analyze decision making under certainty.
Decision Making under Certainty
When we say that decisions are made with certainty, we are
characterizing the previous decision tree by saying that we know
that a particular event will be associated with a particular course
of action, thus the combination of act-event is no greater than the
number of acts or, alternatively, the selection of an act implies
that we know which event will occur and therefore we know which
payoff will be associated with that event. There are two criteria
under decision making with certainty: maximization of payoff
criterion and satisficing criterion.
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The most commonly used criterion in models of decision making
is that of choosing the act which maximizes the payoff. We illus-
trate this procedure in Figure 15-7 where we have plotted payoff
on the vertical axis and alternative acts on the horizontal axis.
Inspection of the diagram would indicate that act 3 gives the maximum
payoff. We are able to choose act 3 because we know that with act 3
a certain event will occur, and we know before the event that the
payoff will be at a maximum.
Payoff
A
$50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
0
Satisfactory
Level
Actions
Act 1
Act 2
Act 3
Act 4
Act 5
FIGURE 15.7. Decision Making with Certainty
The other criterion is one that is referred to as the satisfic-
ing criterion. For this criterion an act is selected that at least
attains some specified minimum payoff. We illustrate this also in
Figure 15.7, where we have indicated, as is often the case, that
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there are several acts which attain this acceptable minimum level.
Satisficing criteria are often used when the computation of the
consequences of particular acts is either difficult or expensive.
Thus we might compute the payoffs from certain acts seriatum and
see that upon computing the payoff from act 1, it is not a satisfic-
ing level, but by computing the payoff from act 2, we have attained
the satisficing level. Under certain situations we would not compute
the payoffs of acts 3, 4, and 5, but we simply compute act 2, since
it has attained our satisficing level.
Decision Making under Uncertainty
We have now come to the most difficult aspect of decision
making — decision making with uncertainty. "Uncertainty" in this
case means that we do not know which event will occur after we have
chosen a particular act. In terms of our previous example, we do
not know what quality of recruits we will obtain. We shall assume,
however, that regardless of which act we choose, the quality of
recruits obtained will be the same for whichever act we choose.
For decision making under certainty, we stated that the payoff
consequences of each act were assumed to be known or at least deter-
minable; in other words, there was but one possible payoff outcome
associated with each act at the point of decision. With decision
making under uncertainty, more than one payoff possibility exists
for each act at the point of decision making, and we do not know
a priori which event and therefore which payoff will be forthcoming.
The types of criteria we shall discuss in this section are called
"pessimistic criteria," "optimistic criteria," "pessimistic-optimistic"
(mixture) criteria, and "maximization of expected value criteria."
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Pessimistic Criteria — The pessimistic criteria may be ex-
plained as follows: The decision maker lists the least desirable
outcome set associated with each of the possible acts. In the
example chosen, the least desirable consequences of choosing to
engage in institutional training would be the payoff of $5,000
whereas the least desirable payoff when choosing on-the-job train-
ing would be $10,000.
The pessimistic criteria implies that from this list of two
least desirable outcomes, the actor must choose the most desirable
outcome. Thus in this example, the actor would choose to engage
in on-the-job training because if one obtains poor quality recruits
one would be better off engaging in on-the-job training than in
institutional training. In more formal contexts pessimistic
criteria are referred to as the maximum criteria, in other words,
one chooses a maximum among the minimum possible values of the con-
sequences of choosing a particular act.
Optimistic Criteria — The Pessimistic criteria concerned
extreme judgment, and optimistic criteria concern extreme judgment
although in the other direction. Under the optimistic criteria the
most desirable of the outcomes of each act is noted. In our example
the most desirable outcome of institutional training would be a
$35,000 payoff, whereas for on-the-job training, it would be a
$20,000 payoff. From this set of most desirable outcomes, the best
or most desirable of this set is chosen, thus in this example the
optimist criteria would be to choose institutional training. In
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more formal derivations of this type of choice, these criteria are
referred to as maximum criteria.
Pessimistic-Optimistic Criteria — The previous two criteria
were obviously extremes. A method for combining these extremes is
obtained when we combine them in a particular way. We should note,
however, that the pessimistic criteria are often used when least
desirable outcomes are serious, and the optimistic criteria are
used when most desirable outcomes are extremely favorable. Thus
it can be seen that they are extreme also in implications that
they have for decision making. An intermediate position that com-
bines some of the extreme pessimism and optimism of the previous
decisions is what is called in the literature the "pessimistic-
optimistic criteria." The proportions of the mixture can be
specified and then used to select and act.
For example, if the mixture chosen would be, say, 80 percent
pessimism and 20 percent optimism, then each act is evaluated accord-
ing to these weights, the least desirable outcome of an act is noted
and is multiplied by 0.80, while the most desirable outcome of the
same is multiplied by 0.20. Adding these two products gives us a
number or index for each act; the act of the maximum or minimum
value indicates the optimal act under this criterion with this
specific mixture. For the example in our previous figures, we have
the following indices for the two acts:
Index for the act "institutional training" is
0.80 ($5,000) + 0.20 ($35,000) = $11,000
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15-50
Index for the act "on-the-job training" is
0.80 ($10,000) + 0.20 ($20,000) = $12,000
Thus the act of engaging in on-the-job training would be superior
to the act of involving institutional training.
Maximization of Expected Value Criteria — In the use of the
pessimistic-optimistic criteria only the extreme values of the
possible payoffs were used. In no case, for example, did we use
the payoff that would be associated with a fair quality of recruit,
thus the possible occurrence of the fair quality of recruit would
not affect decision-making behavior and the previous criteria for
decision making. The maximization of expected value eliminates this
shortcoming and indeed is an extension, as will be seen, of combining
in a general way all of the previous decision-making rules. This is
so because the determination of the depicted value of each act — the
expected payoff for each act — takes into account every possible
outcome of payoff of the act. In order to obtain the expected
value, we multiply each payoff outcome by Its assigned probability
or by the weight that we have in the belief that this event will
occur. We multiply each payoff outcome of the act by the probability
and add the products of such multiplications. This sum is then
referred to as the expected payoff of the act. In Figure 15.8 we
have adjusted our previous decision-making tree to add information
concerning the probabilities of each event. Notice that the sum of
the probabilities under each act equals 1.00 and that again, for
simplicity, we have assumed that the probability that a certain
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Act
Expectant
Payoff
Probability
Quality
of
Recruit
Payoff
$16,500
0.30
0.50
0.20
$15,500
0.30
0.50
Good
Fair
Poor
Good
Fair
$35,000
10,000
5,000
20,000
15,000
0.20
Poor
10,000
FIGURE 15-8. Expected Value Criteria for Decision Making
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quality of recruit will occur once a decision has been made to act
in a certain way is the same for each act.
Under the expected probability criteria, we would compute the
expected payoff in the following manner:
Expected payoff for the act of "institutional training" is
0.30 ($35,000) + 0.50 ($10,000) + 0.20 ($5,000) = $16,500
Expected payoff for the act of "on-the-job training" is
0.30 ($20,000) + 0.50 ($15,000) + 0.20 ($10,000) = $15,500
We have entered the value of $16,500 and $15,500 in the diagram
that the maximization of the expected value criteria would imply
that we would choose the act of engaging in institutional training.
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
AND DECISION MAKING
In the preceding section we reviewed some of the alternative
strategies that are available for making decisions under uncertainty.
We wish to explore further aspects of such decision making in this
section.
In what follows we shall need to differentiate between what
we might refer to as a communication vs a message which provides
information. This will not be an easy task for us, as will be clear
subsequently. We might try to approach the problem by noting that
in our system for a communication to have value, it must provide
information; for information to have value, it must cause a change
in knowledge; and a change in knowledge must in turn cause a change
in behavior. A change in behavior that occurs must be one that
will lead to a greater level of utility than the outcome of the
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behavior that would have been undertaken prior to the provision of
the information in question. For purposes of internal reference
we may wish to designate a communication as occurring when informa-
tion of no value is transmitted, whereas a message is a communica-
tion that transmits information that has value.
What we have attempted to delineate is that a system may trans-
mit a communication without transferring a message. Alternatively,
any management information system must not only deal with the tech-
nical problem of how information may be given from one part of the
system to another, but also should have some method by which to
judge the value of the information that is transmitted. The former
we may refer to as simply the transmission of information where no
particular value judgment is made about the value of that informa-
tion, and the second we might refer to as the transfer of informa-
tion or the transfer of knowledge from one part of the system to
another. Since we shall not be concerned so much with the trans-
mittal of information, we shall assume that if information occurs,
a change in knowledge has also occurred.
These and related aspects of information theory have inter-
esting implications for the valuation and establishing of a manage-
ment information system. It has been said by some practitioners
in the field that all actions can be dichotomized into those which
take place with an end in view and those which take place without
such an end. It has also been concluded that only the former type
of act has value. Prom this it Is often deduced that valuation
occurs only when "something is the matter." The success in valuing
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an act depends upon two things: (1) the adequacy with which an
inquiry into the deficiencies of an existing situation is being
carried out, and (2) the adequacy of the inquirey into the lack
that a particular objective which, when established, will, if acted
upon, remedy existing deficiencies in the current situation.
What the preceding implies is that any management informa-
tion system must be constructed with a certain end in view. What
that end is determines the information requirements of such a
system. Furthermore, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to
have an objective or to anticipate the consequences of some partic-
ular activity unless there has been some consideration given of the
means by which this objective can be brought into existence. Al-
though obvious and bordering upon truisms, these observations are
important in trying to sort out what information is required in
establishing a manpower planning system — how information should
be transmitted, and what kind of activities we expect to come from
this system. Each of these relate to the overall objective which
should be the guiding principle in establishing a management informa-
tion system. All of this suggests that in order to evaluate such a
system, we must (1) investigate and determine the conflict that
exists because certain information is not available, (2) determine
alternative ways in which the information can be made available,
(3) determine the degree to which the supply of information will
overcome conflicts caused by the lack of information, and (lJ) de-
termine the benefits and costs of obtaining (supplying) the
information.
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Evaluation of a Manpower Information System
Four subject areas have often been chosen on which to base
the evaluation of a management information system. These areas
are as follows:
1. The concept of information
2. The concept of probability •
3. The relationship between .the payoff of a decision and
the utility of the outcome
4. Statements concerning the types of information that are
available
The Concept of Information
There are at least two approaches to the concept of informa-
tion that shall be adhered to in the establishing of a management
information system. These concepts relate to the following questions
1. Does information provided reduce the uncertainty held
by the decision maker?
2. Does the information provided change the belief of the
decision maker?
The concept behind the first question defines the role of informa-
tion as that of changing or affecting the probabilities concerning
the occurrence of different states of natures or events. The
second concept includes this role, but also increases the size of
the available choice set. This is to imply that a change in belief
may be caused by a decrease in uncertainty, but may also change for
other measures.
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Concept of Probability
Three views concerning how probability should be conceived
have received much attention. These are (1) logical, (2) the rela-
tive frequency, and (3) the subjectivist view. We shall say more
on this later.
Relationship of Payoff to Utility of Outcome
It may be assumed that payoffs may be mapped onto a particular
utility service of the decision maker, or alternatively that this is
impossible to do. We shall also return to discussion of this assump-
tion in the subsequent part of our analysis.
Types of Information
Several categories relating to alternative concepts of the
type of information that could in principle be available has been
made. These categories are:
1. Categorical and precise information — The probability of
some event occurring is either 0 (zero) or 1 (one) and
the information either confirms or denies one of these
values.
2. Categorical and imprecise information — Which is to imply
that the probability of a certain event is either 0 or 1,
but the information adds only to the degree of belief
regarding these values and is therefore only partial
information.
3. Probabilistic and precise — This is to imply that the
probability of a particular event is only knowable in
-------
15-57
the stochastic form, and the information defines the
vector describing this distribution.
4. Probabilistic and imprecise — Which is to say that the
probability of an event occurring is knowable in the
stochastic form, and the information is in terms of the
vector of possible distributions which describe the
distribution in question.
In each of the preceding cases the information, regardless of the
category in which it is placed, may come from a reliable or
unreliable source; thus instead of four categories, we'would have
eight categories, depending upon the source from which it would
be assumed to come from.
If certain combinations of the preceding assumptions are
accepted, many of the problems associated with a management informa-
tion system would be solved according to conventional decision
analysis reviewed in the previous section. Since there are alter-
native assumptions that may be made, some combinations of these
various assumptions would imply a different type of decision
analysis than the conventional one previously discussed.
SELECTED REFERENCES
Halter, Abent N. and Dean, Gerald W. Decisions Under Uncertainty,
Cincinnati: South-Western Publishing Co., 1971.
Somers, C. G. and Wood, W. D. (eds.), Cost-Benefit Analysis of
Manpower Policies, Kingston, Ontario: Industrial Relations
Centre, Queens University, 1969.
-------
16.
PERFORMANCE CONTROL
In this chapter we conclude our development of the applied
steps of the micromanpower planning process by discussing step 6:
Develop a performance control mechanism. The purpose of this step
is to provide for the improvement of the manpower planning process.
In its simplest expression an improvement is obtained if the dif-
ference between the position in which the organization would like
to be (i.e., its desired state) and that in which it is (I.e., its
actual state) is diminished. The desired state results from obtain-
ing the objectives set forth for the planning process as discussed
in step 1.
THE MANPOWER PLANNING SYSTEM
To understand the importance of this step, and our reason for
reserving it as a separate step rather than combining it with pre-
vious steps, we borrow from the field of cybernetics. It can be
said that what we have been developing in this book would be
characterized In the field of cybernetics as a system -- a manpower
planning system. Such a system, if it is to be a viable system,
has three attributes: an innate complexity, a complex Interaction
with the environment In which it operates, and a complex internal
connectivity (Beers, 1966). The significant and repeated notion in
each of these characteristics is the presence and Idea of "complexity."
Most systems are more complex than often thought to be. Attempts to
simplify discussions of them may have undesirable consequences. One
-------
16-2
of the more important of these is that when a complex system is
treated as a simple one, the amount of information that can or will
be obtained about that system is reduced. This further reduces
the opportunity to improve the system. Monitoring and evaluating
the planning process, in a manner to be suggested in this chapter,
are an attempt to come to grips directly with the possible complex-
ities of the planning process by seeking meaningful information
about it. Such information then serves as the basis for the
performance control processes that are discussed in this step.
We quickly acknowledge that in the very concept of this book —
presenting a "simplified approach" to manpower planning — we might
be found guilty of contributing to the possible shortcomings alluded
to in the previous paragraph. By simplifying the manpower planning
process, which we have attempted to do, we run the risk of ignoring
important concepts. Of these possibilities we are aware. We should
observe, however, that cybernetics does not fully disparage simplifi-
cation, but rather warns us of the dangers such simplifications may
generate. Protestations against simplification must be tempered,
as we have consistently argued in this text, by the constraints
under which we have produced this book and the constraints under
which we anticipate the expected user to be working.
The planning process may not accomplish that which was ini-
tially expected of it for many reasons. Among the more important
reasons are the occurrence of mishaps and the presence of probabil-
istic behavior. Each of these is a variation of what in other contexts
-------
16-3
is simply termed "uncertainty." Those aspects of the planning
process that might be classified as mishaps often are attributable
to errors made in the execution of certain functions or the unfore-
seen imposition of the outside environment. The latter, of course,
recognizes that the manpower planning process operates within a
framework not entirely controllable by the planner. The notion
behind dysfunctions due to probabilistic behavior is that there is
much in human behavior that is unpredictable, partially of course
because of lack of knowledge about such behavior. It has been
said that one of the functions of managements is to cope with
probabilism and attempt to reduce it. This can also be said of the
manpower planning function.
Planning and Control
As developed more fully in our chapter reviewing the theory
of planning, planning creates standards by which behavior or actions
are to be judged. Alternatively, objectives within the plan create
standards that determine the dimension of intended action. Such
standards become the basis for control of the planning process.
What is often called the state of control is a condition in which
action is conforming to the standards developed within the plan,
while the process of control is those activities undertaken to
maintain conformity between the plan and the actions within the
plan. Such an idea can be taken on two levels: first, process
control might mean a system by which individuals working within
the planning function are, through whatever means, brought into
conformity with those actions previously determined as being
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16-4
necessary for the efficient execution of the plan. Secondly,
process control may also refer to those activities which attempt
to ensure that the total of activities undertaken to execute a
given plan do in fact meet those standards generated by the plan.
We shall assume that manpower planners have control over the
internal workings of their operation and that they can therefore
induce individuals who work for them to do those tasks they assign
them. Thus the manpower planner's main task in the area of control
is determining those actions that will bring actual performance into
conformity with desired performance. We shall therefore place our
emphasis upon looking at the overall plan and its components and
measuring intended performance with actual performance. For this
reason, we prefer to speak in terms of performance control.
A common view of the performance control process is one in
which the manager is seen as attempting to arrange activities within
the plant's operations to meet a predetermined standard or objective.
This, however, is not the only way in which control can be viewed
or established. A manager could impose control by changing whatever
standards may have previously existed to conform with existing action,
This of course is not always effective or desirable but would be so
if it were determined, for example, that existing standards were no
longer appropriate. Some combination of changing action and changing
standards would be a third view of the control process.
Basic Control Systems
In the literature dealing with the theory of control, two
basic control systems are usually postulated — the open sequence
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16-5
or open loop type of control and the closed sequence or closed
loop type of control.
In the open sequence control system the change In one set of
circumstances brings about a planned change in another set of cir-
cumstances. Consider, for example, two processes — process A and
process B. Let process A be a controllable and controlled process,
while process B is either an uncontrolled or uncontrollable process.
Let it further be assumed that changes in A can compensate for
changes in B. A common example of an open sequence control is that
of a thermostatic control for the temperature relationship between
the inside and outside a house. The temperature outside z. house
has an effect upon the inside temperature, but the outside tem-
perature cannot be controlled. A thermometer might be devised which
both measures outside temperature and activates a device to adjust
a valve that supplies heat to the inside of the house. By knowing
the direct relationship between outside temperature and inside
temperature, one can make the necessary fuel adjustment. In such
a system outside temperature (B) is uncontrollable, but the heat
release devise (A)is controllable. Thus the controllable process
compensates for the effect of the uncontrollable process. We
illustrate this in Figure 16.1.
In practice the open sequence type of control system is often
used to change the standard by which plans are measured rather than
the action. In business, for example, such systems might be used
to adjust inventories (process A) to comply with the firm's desired
ratio (the standard) between inventories and sales volume (process B)
-------
ib-b
Standard
Process B
(Outside
Temperature)
V
Sensor
V
Controller
and
Actuator
Room
Temperature
A
Process A
(Heat adjustment)
FIGURE 16.1. Schematic View of Open Sequence Control
The open sequence control system is a feed forward information
system for it feeds information forward in the system to compensate
for changes in the uncontrolled variable. Such systems suffer from
two principal disadvantages. First, they require careful planning
arid estimates of the relationships between the controlled and un-
controlled processes. Such estimates must be bas^d upon either
predictable or deterministic relationships. Second, the system
cannot deal with unusual circumstances; in the case of the thermo-
static control, for example, the system cannot differentiate between
cold nonwindy days and cold windy days.
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16-7
An example of an open sequence control In manpower planning
might be as follows: Process B may be a change in wages in other
organizations, while process A will be a change in wages in the
organization under study. The implication here is that as wages
elsewhere increase, undesirable employment characteristics will
develop in the studied organization. These may be mitigated by an
increase in its own wages. Such a control system requires informa-
tion on wages in other organizations, knowledge on the effect of
other wages upon the organization's employment, and employment
characteristics in the given organization.
The second type of control system is referred to as a closed
sequence, loop, or feedback control system. In such a system a
change in one set of circumstances (or the occurrence of a difference
between desired and actual performance) is communicated back through
the control process to an actuator which undertakes predetermined
action in an attempt to eliminate the change or the difference.
The feedback control system in physical and biological systems is
a self-correcting process since when certain divergences exist
certain predetermined action is followed or activated. This aspect
of feedback systems does not exist to the same degree when human
activities are under consideration.
An example of a closed loop or feedback control system is a
thermostatic control used within most buildings. A thermometer
measures heat within the room and compares actual with desired
temperature -- the desired temperature having been determined pre-
viously and set on the thermostat. If the comparison shows that
-------
16-8
there is a difference between actual and desired temperature, a
predetermined set of activities is undertaken. In this example
the actuator causes a certain amount of heat to be released, the
amount depending upon the difference in actual and desired temper-
ature. This continues in an iterative manner until the desired
temperature is obtained (see Figure 16.2).
Such systems also have their weaknesses. In the first place,
they rely upon divergences between actual and desired conditions,
and therefore corrections happen only after an undesirable change
has occurred or an error is detected. A second type of disadvantage
occurs because of the after-the-fact aspect of this type of control -
a time lag will exist between the time when a problem occurs and
when control is implemented.
Process A
(Actual temperature)
Standard
(Desired temperature)
FIGURE 16.2. Schematic View of Closed Loop Control
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16-9
An example taken from the manpower field will help clarify
this type of control process. Suppose the control mechanism is
set to control for vacancies. The equivalent of the thermostatic
setting is some predetermined vacancy level or rate that is judged
to be unacceptable. When this level or rate occurs, it is picked
up in the measurement step (the sensor). Noting that the actual
is not equal to the desired, the closed loop system assumes that
the manpower planning process has determined in advance what man-
power program(s) would be enacted to remedy the problem. These
programs are then actuated and the problem resolved or mitigated.
Giving this example for manpower illustrates another possible
shortcoming of the closed loop system and, to a lesser extent,
the open loop system. When multiple causes of a given problem
exist, the remedy will depend upon the exact cause. Thus vacancies
may be caused by changes in (1) relative wages, (2) working condi-
tions, or (3) inefficient manpower programs such as recruitment
practices. If the third one is the root cause, one cannot be sure
that automatically increasing wages will solve the problem. At
least it will not solve the problem as efficiently as would the
making of appropriate changes in recruitment practices.
Some reflection will indicate that a total commitment to
either general type of control system is inappropriate. Under
certain conditions a single cause and effect condition may exist,
and a closed loop system may be more appropriate for this reason,
and also because of difficulties in knowing in advance what the
internal effects of some external stimulus might be. In other
-------
16-10
cases, when the possible effects of external occurrences are known
with some certainty, the time lags inherent in the closed loop
system can be eliminated by adhering to the open loop system of
control. Each system makes different demands upon the information
a manpower planner must obtain. In each case, however, the planner
is confronted with the previously mentioned problems of knowing the
dimensions of the manpower program production function. In the
open loop sequence a planner must also have firmer knowledge con-
cerning the relationship between external events and internal
manpower conditions.
Much of what we have said concerning the control mechanism has
applied to the type of issues more correctly covered in the preced-
ing step. What we wish to emphasize at this point is how such
mechanisms should be used to improve the entire manpower planning
process. We seek directly to establish procedure for improving the
performance of manpower planners in their various planning functions,
We prefer to think of the process we call performance control
as consisting of two primary and discrete tasks. The first requires
that the manpower planner monitor and evaluate the manpower plan-
ning process. The second requires, based upon the information and
judgments obtained in the previous setps, that a corrective system
be established.
MONITORING AND EVALUATING THE PLANNING PROCESS
To accomplish the task of performance control, the manpower
planner must first gain an understanding of the functioning of the
manpower planning process itself. This may be accomplished by
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16-11
monitoring the process. By introducing this task, we wish to dif-
ferentiate between the collection and analysis of data undertaken
in the previous steps and the collection and analysis of data for
slightly different, although related, purposes. The monitoring
process cannot occur until the first five steps have been completed.
At that point all of the data that have been collected will enable
the manpower planner to compare the actual and desired state. By
monitoring the manpower process, we simply mean checking the process
to ascertain the quality of the process itself or, alternatively,
checking the divergence between desired and actual states of the
organization. Some definitions of monitoring might include the
process of evaluation. It is intended that the manpower planner not
only check the possible divergences between elements of the actual
and desired states but also evaluate (i.e., make judgments about)
such divergences as a preliminary activity to determining the
content of the feedback control mechanism developed subsequently.
Although this step can be viewed as an extension of the
measurement or data collection functions, it is best thought of as
a separate function. All of the previous data will be used as in-
puts into the monitoring and evaluation task and also the develop-
ment of a control mechanism. The difference between the data used
in this step and those collected and generated in previous steps
is a difference based upon the characteristics of the planning
process. In chapter 9, we noted a distinction between the form
and the content of the planning process. Previous steps have been
concerned with content, while this step Is concerned with the form.
-------
16-12
The primary emphasis, then, in this step is that of measuring
the degree to which the planning objectives were achieved and of
attempting to build into the planning process mechanisms by which
these objectives might be continuously achieved, or at least the
difference minimized in some systematic fashion. Insofar as this
is accomplished, each cycle in the planning process should experi-
ence some improvement.
It is often desirable that a system have some form of self-
regulation or automatic control. This can be accomplished with
varying degrees of success by designing a control mechanism as an
integral part of the system. As mentioned previously, a good man-
power planning process (system) will be a learning process where
current practices are adaptations of past practices in a continuous
search for improvement. Such improvement comes about through adjust-
ments made on the basis of information obtained, evaluated, and then
integrated into the system. It is by allowing and arranging such a
mechanism that the manpower planning process becomes an adaptive
process.
Many control mechanisms operate upon the principle of partial
adjustments based upon the difference between where the system is
and where it is intended to be. Similar principles can be included
in a manpower planning process with the degree of partial adjustment,
ranging from zero to one, being determined by the costs of making
the needed adjustments relative to the benefits derived therefrom.
Through the control mechanisms, information will also be obtained
that will assist in the reevaluation of manpower goals. We have
-------
16-13
illustrated a common occurrence in Figure 16.3. At some point in
time, noted as t~, the system was at position A, and it was deter-
mined that position B was to be reached by time period t-,. Points
c and d represent intermediate positions to be achieved by time
periods t, and t~ respectively. (These points may represent, for
example, the ratio of budgeted to recommended employment, with
position B being unity or 100 percent.) The dotted line denotes
the actual path accomplished by the existing manpower programs.
Objective B is not achieved on schedule, being now achieved at
time tn. This is noted by the fact that B , identical to B, is
attained at time t|,. The difference between these two paths may
be the result of unrealistic expectation in establishing the goal
of reaching B at t.-,. (The broken line represents another alter-
native -- that of never reaching B but approaching some other
Budgeted
Recommended
1.00
0.50
to
FIGURE 16.3. Illustration of Alternative
Manpower Goal Achievement Paths
Time
-------
16-14
limit asymptotically.) The difference may represent poor perform-
ance on the system either because the right variables were not changed
by the correct amount or the wrong variables were changed. Which of
these and other possibilities have occurred must be determined by
the planner.
The preceding example indicates that individual manpower plan-
ners must apply the same principles and procedures to their own activ-
ities as they do to the manpower for which they are planning. This
is to imply that they analyze the manpower planning process and
identify and arrange for the resolution of any problems. Thus they
must measure, project, and analyze their own manpower planning prob-
lems. What is important in the illustration, however, is the fact
that information regarding "rational" or "achievable" goals is
obtained. (Recall that we defined "rational" in chapter 9 only in
relation to achieving given goals — not in the determination of
such goals.)
Continuous Nature of Performance Control
As indicated previously, the need for monitoring arises from
the fact that the manpower planning process leads to a plan of
action that attempts to achieve certain objectives. The action
involves establishing manpower planning programs designed to
improve the current performance of the agency and to forestall the
development of future problems. Accomplishing the latter requires
the forecasting or anticipation of problems before they develop.
A plan of action is of course of value only if it is implemented.
-------
16-15
Monitoring is a process whereby the implementation is observed and
the probability of implementation increased.
The need for evaluating the manpower planning process arises
from the fact that the manpower planning is essentially a judgmental
process. Such judgments are directed toward appraising the nature
and seriousness of problems currently besetting the agency and of
those that may beset it in the future. It is also a judgmental
process about the alternative courses of action that might resolve
these problems. These appraisals are based on current information
held by manpower planners. This information should suggest to them
what their alternative course of action might be and in many cases,
what their action should be.
The judgments and appraisals upon which a manpower plan is
based should be reviewed periodically in the light of more or better
information. Such information might lead to such conclusions as:
1. The plan is not proceeding according to schedule because
of practical problems of implementation.
2. The implementation of the plan is not having the desired
effects.
3- The nature and seriousness of problems identified in 1
and 2 above were misappraised.
4. New and unforeseen problems have developed in the agency.
5. Forecasts upon which much of the plan was based are faulty.
6. Alternative courses of action which might be pursued have
changed to the degree that if such conclusions are reached
the plan should probably be modified.
-------
16-16
The need for monitoring and evaluating never ceases. A plan
that has been proceeding smoothly can at any time become unexpect-
edly snarled; unforeseen events can confront manpower planners with
new problems or upset their most carefully prepared forecasts. The
alternative course of action that might be pursued can be altered
by such developments as new knowledge of perspectives about human
behavior, the consequences of research in the social and behavioral
sciences, or by changes in the law, in public policy, or in the
economic climate. Even in the absence of any radical change in the
environment in which the planner operates, there is need for con-
tinuous monitoring and evaluation; plans can almost always be
improved, and an accumulation of information over time should
facilitate that process.
The need for monitoring and evaluation is especially great
during the early stages of the manpower planning effort; it is
customary at the outset to make a number of untested, undocumented
assumptions. Some assumptions, for example, would have to be made
in the making of forecasts based upon data collected for only one
year. Many such assumptions that are used in the making of fore-
casts are sure to contain errors. To facilitate appropriate adjust-
ments and corrections of these errors, all assumptions should be
made explicit so that they can eventually be tested against the
data and past performance and, as the need arises, be modified.
The Role of Forecasting
The sensitivity of the manpower planning process to its inter-
nal assumptions should be investigated. This is particularly true
-------
16-17
with respect to the process of making forecasts of future conditions.
No step in the manpower planning process can be judged more impor-
tant than that of forecasting. In fact, most of the activities in
which the manpower planner engages involves forecasting future con-
ditions, even when his attention is directed toward a currently
existing problem he is forecasting. The advice or plans that he
offers relative to a specific problem imply that if certain steps
are taken the problem will be ameliorated. The term "forecasting"
as it is usually used in manpower planning does not apply, however,
to anticipating the consequences of a plan; rather, it is often
restricted to the formal process of anticipating future demand and
supply of manpower.
It is appropriate to distinguish between forecasting and
projecting, another much used term in manpower planning. The latter
consists simply of extending a past trend Into the future; a pro-
jection reveals what will happen in the future if things continue
to develop as they have in the past. An example of a very simple
projection would be to assume that the past annual rate of growth
and employment in the organization will continue in the future.
A more complex projection might be based upon the observed correla-
tion in the past between the annual growth on the one hand and the
growth of population and its Increasing urbanization on the other.
Such a projection would assume that the correlation will continue
to hold in the future.
A forecast is the best estimate of what is likely to happen
in the future, taking into consideration those events that are likely
-------
16-18
to change and making some estimate of their probable effect on the
process under review. The importance of forecasting in manpower
planning is in the fact that it attempts to anticipate potential
imbalances in manpower characteristics early enough to permit the
implementation of a plan of action in time to forestall the im-
balance. The manpower planner's forecasts are not, of course,
offered with the same confidence as those made by soothsayers gazing
into a crystal ball, or by an astronomer planning a course of the
planets of the heavens. Rather, they are offered as likely to be
true, given the information currently available. Thus they are
subject to revision, as are the plans based upon them, as better
or more current information becomes available.
The forecast should be continuously monitored to determine
whether the variables being forecasted are behaving as expected.
To the degree that their values differ from those anticipated, the
forecasting procedures should be reviewed for purposes of improve-
ment. This may mean collecting more reliable, more specific, or
different types of data. It may also mean experimenting with other
forecasting techniques. The mere fact that a time series is being
developed through the continuous application of a manpower planning
process will mean that certain techniques (e.g., the projections
of trends via the least squares method) will in time become usable.
A forecast, of course, is a prediction of the future value of
some variable. Its value for planning purposes is a direct func-
tion of its accuracy. Accurate forecasting does not ensure effec-
tive planning, but planning is more apt to be effective the more
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16-19
accurate the forecast. Suppose that a forecast is made that five
years hence there will be x number of vacancies in the organization.
Then unless training programs are instituted that will provide y
number of fully qualified graduates in the interim (where y, of
course, is equal to or greater than x), the possibility of hiring
qualified individuals will be diminished. Suppose further that on
the basis of the forecasting task, such a training program was
instituted. The process would have worked ideally if after five
years there were no vacancies or surpluses. The forecast would
have been accurate and would have effectuated the necessary action.
It is possible, of course, that the above forecast may have
been accurate for reasons other than those contemplated by fore-
casters. They may have underestimated equally the growth of demand
and supply. In a sense, this makes no difference. If the crucial
variable for planning purposes is the number of vacancies, the
important task of the forecaster is to predict it as accurately as
possible, regardless of how that is done. On the other hand, fore-
casters cannot have faith in their continued ability to forecast
accurately unless they know why supply and demand grew more rapidly
than anticipated.
Few forecasts will be perfectly accurate. The ideal is seldom
realized. The question consequently arises about the allowable mar-
gin of error of forecasts. How wrong can a forecast be and still
be acceptable? It is a truism that any forecast is of value which
permits better planning than would have been possible in the absence
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16-20
of such a forecast. (This does not imply that it is worth the
cost, however.) We consider this issue in a subsequent section
below.
QUANTIFICATION OF MANPOWER OBJECTIVES
In the execution of the previous steps, data were obtained
which should enable the manpower planner to portray the objectives
of the agency in numerical terms. The array of such numbers may
indicate both the actual and intended or desired state of the agency.
Such information might be collected and displayed for each year and
for those characteristics in which the agency has expressed special
interest. In Table 16-1 we display a suggested format for these
data. In this table we have listed both the desired and actual
values of certain employment characteristics in percentage terms.
We have also included a column indicating the relative difference
between the desired and the actual. For the relative difference,
the actual difference is taken as the base. Finally, we have
provided for a ranking of objectives (should such a ranking exist).
This ranking reflects either the judgments of the manpower planner
or directives from management on the presumed seriousness of certain
employment characteristics to the organization.
It is not at all obvious that displaying the relative differ-
ences, as we have in Table 16-1, is as instructive as might first
appear. Notice that when the desired difference is zero, the
relative difference indicates a 100 percent desirable change regard-
less of the magnitude of the actual. This characteristic could be
-------
16-21
Table 16-1
Current Differences between Desired and.
Actual Manpower Characteristics
(In percentage terms)
Characteristic
Budget shortfall
Vacancy
Quit
Discharges
Wage differential
Desired
(D)
0%
5
2
0
0
Actual
(A)
1055
15
3
5
20
Relative
Difference
100$
67
33
100
100
Ranking
4
1
2
3
5
eliminated by using the desired state as a base. Doing so, however,
results in a possible relative difference that goes to infinity in
those cases where the desired state is zero. Although it has its
shortcomings, we feel that using "actual" as a base has more advan-
tages, or fewer shortcomings, than alternative measures.
More interesting data can be obtained as a manpower planning
process is repeated. Such repetition improves the base on which
future forecasts can be made, it allows measurements to check on
the accuracy of previous forecasts, and it also provides a basis
for examining trends in the relative differences between desired
and actual manpower characteristics. Information relative to
these characteristics can be obtained and catalogued for a particular
characteristic as illustrated in Table 16-2. These in turn may be
collected, graphed, and displayed in a manner such as Figure 16.4.
-------
Table 16-2
Time Profile of Budget Shortfall Rate
Desired
Actual
Relative
difference
Pei
c
I
••centage
;hange fr
previous
"A -A
\-I t
L At \
•om
year
Year
1970
0
20
100
1971
0
17
100
15
1972
0
15
100
12
1973
0
12
100
20
1974
0
10
100
16
1975
0
10a
100
oa
1976
0
9a
100
ioa
1977
0
9a
100
oa
1978 ]
0
8a
100
12a
19Y9
0
8a
100
oa
en
I
rv>
Denotes forecasted value.
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16-23
Relative
Difference
25--
20--
15 --
10--
5--
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978
FIGURE 16.4. Plot of Time Trends in Relative Differences
in Manpower Characteristics
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16-24
ESTABLISHING A CORRECTIVE SYSTEM
The purpose of providing for a corrective (feedback) system
is to facilitate adjustments in the planning process so as to dimin-
ish the difference between the desired and actual state of various
manpower characteristics. The key element in this step is the
process of adjustment. Adjustments will occur in three primary
areas: adjustments in what data are collected (measurement)., adjust-
ments in forecasting techniques, and adjustments in the design of
manpower programs and content of action steps.
As the manpower planning process proceeds through its periodic
phases, peculiarities of the agency might indicate that additional
information pertaining to manpower is not being collected, but
should be, or that some information is being collected and is not
being used. Each of these conditions would seem to require some
adjustments in the measuring process, although the lack of immediate
use of some data should not warrant a discontinuance in its collec-
tion. In the act of forecasting future conditions, a planner will
inevitably make forecast errors. Some of these may be eliminated
by adjustments in the forecasting techniques, although others will
not be subject to improvement. Finally, certain action steps aimed
at eliminating specific problems may in time be found to be less
effective than previously thought and thereby require adjustment in
program action.
Modifications in Forecasting Techniques
An important aspect of a corrective or feedback mechanism is
the adjustment of forecasting techniques. In the initial phases of
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16-25
the planning effort, the manpower planner will be required to fore-
cast additional manpower and training needs on the basis of little
data. As the planning effort continues, more data will become
available, some of which will be in the form of having measured in
one particular year that which was forecast in some previous year.
Undoubtedly there will occur differences between the estimated and
the measured variables. One important function of the manpower
planner is to adjust the forecasting techniques so that they de-
crease such errors.
In this section we shall use the process of forecasting addi-
tional manpower needs for wastewater treatment plants as an example
of how forecasting techniques might be adjusted. Throughout the
analysis, one unquantifiable element of the planning process must
be kept in mind — the judgmental decisions of the manpower planner.
Throughout all of the manpower planning, but particularly in fore-
casting future needs, the planner will be required to make judgmental
decisions on such matters as how much to adjust certain variables and
what value to assign to certain parameters. The basis for such
decisions will in part be the accumulated data, but many decisions
will be related to innate ability and will have the characteristic
of an art that cannot be taught. Fortunately or unfortunately,
many good decisions might be considered lucky decisions, and vice
versa. It is hoped that the importance of the random elements in
forecasting techniques will be reduced as the manpower process
becomes an important and integral part of the agency and as the
skill of the manpower planner improves.
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16-26
We have argued previously that additional manpower needs
should be based upon the concept of actual employment, rather than
recommended or budgeted employment. If we denote the forecast of
additional manpower needs for next year (i.e., 1976) as (AMN7/-)*,
actual employment this year as E? *, the estimate of actual employ-
l|
ment next year as (E7g)*, and the estimated termination rate for
2
next year as (t7r)* then, in equation form, we may write the
formula for additional manpower needs as
(AMN?6)* - (E6)« - E + (t76)*(E)* (1)
Estimated values in the preceding are noted with an asterisk (*).
An example and further discussion will clarify the meaning of
equation 1. Let us suppose that the measurement process is completed
in December of each year. Then in December 1975, we obtain a measure-
ment of current employment for 1975. We also obtain a measurement
of what the termination rate was in 1975 , forecasts of expected
employment for 1976, and forecasts of the termination rate for 1976.
Let us suppose that actual employment in 1975 was 150 and the termi-
nation rate was 10 percent. Let us also suppose that the estimate
of actual employment for 1976 is 175 and the termination rate is
expected to be 11 percent. Applying equation 1 to these figures
gives us the following:
(AMN76)* = (E^)* - E^ + (t76)*.(E^)* (2)
= 175 - 150 + (0.11) • (175) = 25 + 19 = 3^
We have suggested that forecasts of actual employment may be
based upon forecasts of recommended employment by the use of what
we have termed "factors of proportionality." We have suggested
-------
16-27
this method, in spite of its problems, primarily because it provides
a simple method by which forecasts of actual employment may be made.
We may now rewrite equation 1 using the factor of proportionality
concept as
(3)
where (£„,-)* notes estimate of recommended employment. Rearranging
this equation, we obtain
(AMN76)* = [l + (t?6)«] «(E*6)» - E^ (4)
An examination of equation 4 indicates that there are three
estimated variables that are relevant for each year's estimate of
rs TD
additional manpower needs: (P )*, (E )*, and (t)*. Estimates of
additional manpower needs may change as a result of changes in any
or all of these variables. Thus errors in our forecasting proce-
dures may be attributed to any or all of these three variables .
In forecasting future additional manpower needs, the manpower
planner first measures current variables and then forecasts the
value of future variables. The information obtained from the
measurement process is used in the forecasting process, while the
information used in the forecasting process is used to improve the
measurement process. While the results of each process have inde-
pendent value and use, the data that each generates are inter-
dependent. These processes may be represented schematically as in
Figure 16.5-
The above process indicates that in any one year, the man-
power planner is measuring and forecasting variables of certain
manpower characteristics. As the planning process continues, it
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16-28
will happen that at some time the variables which at some point were
forecast will now be measured. Thus in year one, the present year,
we measure actual and recommended employment and compute the factor
of proportionality and the termination rate. We also forecast future
values of these variables. In particular we measure actual employ-
ment this year and forecast recommended employment for next year,
along with the factors of proportionality and the termination rate.
When the second year arrives, we measure all of these variables
and thus provide a basis for comparing measured values with forecast
values.
A
Measure
Forecast
A
Currently
Adopted
Manpower
Programs
FIGURE 16.5. Measurement and Forecasting Processes
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16-29
Over time it will be possible for the manpower planner to
compare estimated with actual or measured values of the various
elements of the manpower data. On the basis of such comparisons,
adjustments in measurement and forecasting techniques may be made.
To illustrate these possibilities we present Table 16-3, wherein
is shown a detailed example on one aspect of the manpower planning
process and how it may be changed over time.
The first year in the planning horizon is 1976 with the
measurement of current employment and the initial forecasts being
made in 1975. When the initial measurements and forecasts are
made, we obtain the first column in Table 16-3. Hence the current
actual employment is 150, the termination rate 10 percent, and so
on. We illustrate only two additional years in each column, although
we cover each year in a five-year planning horizon in each row. As
we begin the process it should be noted (in column 1975) that the
forecasts of future factors of proportionality and termination rates
are equal to those measured in the current period. This need not be
the case, we simply assume it is the case for this example.
When we come to 1976, the measured actual employment is 160,
whereas our forecast of future actual employment was 180. Examina-
tion of the measured data indicates that the error in the estimate
was caused by a decline in the factor of proportionality from 0.90
to 0.80. To adjust for this measured decline the manpower planner,
on the basis of judgmental decisions in this case, forecasts the
factor of proportionality to be 0.85 for the two succeeding years.
The planner has perhaps assumed that the 0.80 was a random event
-------
Table 16-3
Numerical Example of Changes In Manpower Forecasting Techniques
Actual employment
Termination rate
Factor of proportionality
Actual recommended employment
Forecast of recommended employ-
ment (one year hence)
Forecast of factor proportion-
ality (one year hence)
Forecast of actual employment
(one year hence)
Forecast of termination rate
(one year hence)
Additional manpower needs (new
hires; one year hence)
Forecast of recommended employ-
ment (two years hence)
Forecast of factor of propor-
tionality (two years hence)
Forecast of actual employment
(two years hence)
Forecast of termination rate
(two years hence)
Additional manpower needs (new
hires; two years hence)
Year
1975
150.00
0.10
0.90
165.00
200.00
0.90
180.00
0.10
48.00
230.00
0.90
207.00
0.10
48.00
1976
160.00
0.10
0.80
200.00
230.00
0.85
196.00
0.10
56.00
250.00
0.85
213.00
0.10
38.00
1977
184.00
0.10
0.80
229.00
250.00
0.80
200.00
0.10
36.00
270.00
0.80
216.00
0.10
38.00
1978
200.00
0.10
0.80
250.00
270.00
0.80
216.00
0.10
38.00
300.00
0.80
240.00
0.10
48.00
1979
240.00
0.10
0.80
300.00
310.00
0.80
248.00
0.10
33.00
315.00
0.80
252.00
0.10
29.00
19«0
248.00
0.10
0.80
310.00
315.00
0.80
252.00
0.10
29.00
320.00
0.80
256.00
0.10
30.00
I
uo
o
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16-31
and not likely to continue, but the fact that it was lower than the
previously measured 0.90 may indicate that 0.90 was a randomly
high measurement or that a downward trend may be in the offing.
The rest of the 1976 column continues by assuming the 0.85 factor
of proportionality, the same termination rate, and the assumption
that the methods of forecasting recommended employment continue
to be correct.
In 1977 the measurement of actual employment is 184, while the
forecast of actual employment made in the previous year was 196.
Again the error is in-the use of the wrong factor of proportionality,
The planner used 0.85, but the actual was 0.80. This leads the plan-
ner to think that 0.80 is the correct one and adjust future fore-
casts accordingly. All other forecasts remain intact.
In 1978 the measurement of actual employment confirms the
planner's judgment that the change in the factors of proportion-
ality to 0.80 was the right one. He or she thus continues with
this estimate and with all other forecasting techniques. Alas, in
1979 actual employment is 240, while the forecasted level was 216.
Now the error seems to be induced by a miscalculation in the level
of recommended employment. The planner had forecasted this level
to be 270, and it turned out to be 300. Let us suppose that the
reason for this error is the faster than anticipated completion
rate of new plants.
Note that the level of recommended employment in 1979 is equal
to that which was forecast for 1980. Because of the unexpected
spurt in recommended employment for 1979, the planner assumes that
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16-32
recommended employment will not grow relatively as fast in the
succeeding two years. (Such judgment is based, perhaps, on the
added information that for political reasons special effort was
made to complete certain plants in 1979.) His estimates of future
recommended employment thus exhibit a smaller growth rate than in
previous years. The data in column 1980 indicate that the planner's
judgments in this case were correct.
Reviewing the preceding, we note that the three areas for
possible error are: the raw estimates of recommended employment,
estimates of the relationship between actual and recommended employ-
ment, and the estimate of the termination rate. It is clear that
accurate data should be kept on measured and estimated variables
and the various components of employment so as to facilitate cor-
rections for future years. Some of these corrections may be effected
by adjusting the quantitative aspects of the forecasting techniques,
as would be applicable for errors on estimates of the factor of
proportionality and the termination rates. It might be discovered,
for example, that errors In the factors of proportionality or ter-
mination rates were made because trends were erroneously read into
or left out of the analysis or that certain important causal factors
that would affect such rates were ignored or misjudged for discrep-
ancies between measured and forecast levels of recommended employ-
ment. The manpower planner will have to determine whether the
discrepancies arose because the number of plants scheduled to come
on line were not completed on schedule, whether the information
from staffing guides or engineers' reports was accurate (a matter
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16-33
related to the proportionality factors), or whether these short-
comings were related to inadequate budgets, or new legislation,
or simply that generally poor information from other sources was
obtained.
SELECTED REFERENCES
Beckhard, Richard. Organization Development: Strategies and
Models. Addison-Wesley Series on Organization Development,
Edited by Edgar Schein, Warren Bennis, Richard Beckhard.
Reading, Pennsylvania: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
1969.
Beers, Stafford. Decision and Control. New York: John Wiley &
Sons, Inc. 1966.
Bennis, Warren. Organization Development: Its Nature, Origin
and Prospects. Addison-Wesley Series on Organization
Development. Edited by Edgar Schein et al. Reading,
Pennsylvania: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 1§69-
Katz, Daniel; and Kahn, Robert L. The Social Psychology of
Organizations. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1966.
Simon, Herbert A. Administrative Behavior. New York: The Free
Press, 1957.
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17.
IMPLEMENTATION OP A MANPOWER
PLANNING SYSTEM
There are two general approaches which could be followed in
discussing the implementation of a manpower planning system. The
first we refer to as the how to win friends and influence people
approach. Such an approach emphasizes the political and interper-
sonal problems of organizational development. We shall not empha-
size this approach, although we acknowledge its importance and shall
accordingly review certain aspects of it. The second approach shall
be referred to as the "technical aspects" of implementation. The
division between these two areas, as we shall see, is sometimes fuzzy.
POLITICAL AND INTERPERSONAL ASPECTS
OF IMPLEMENTATION
Some insights to the political or interpersonal aspects of
implementation is obtained from Machiavelli's Prince. In that treat-
ise Machiavelli states:
There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor
more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle,
than to initiate a new order of things. For the re-
former has enemies in all who profit by the old order,
and only lukewarm defenders in all those who would
profit by the new order. This lukewarmness arises
partly from fear of their adversaries, who have the
law in their favor, and partly from the incredulity
of mankind, who do not truly believe in anything new
until they have had actual experience of it.
This quotation is not meant to suggest a portrait of a manpower planner
as a reformer, at least in the pejorative sense of that term, but
rather the quotation is used because it summarizes the feelings that
at least two groups of individuals within an organization may have
17-1
-------
toward the adoption of a manpower planning process — some will be
for it and some against it.
In considering certain political aspects related to the imple-
mentation of a manpower planning system, one sees that it is inter-
esting to try to visualize alternative situations where the attempt
is being made to implement a manpower planning system. Consider an
organization which at a given point in time does not have a formal
manpower planning process. Unless that manpower planning process
is to be mandated by future legislation or to be dictatorially im-
posed by the head of the organization, someone within the organiza-
tion will need to advocate a manpower planning process and persuade
others within the organization to adopt it. Thus implementation of
a manpower planning system in this sense requires persuasion. We
are ignoring the process by which the individual who wishes to per-
suade colleagues to adopt a planning process has first become per-
suaded. We shall simply assume that at some point in time this
individual became convinced that manpower planning for his or her
organization was worthwhile and would work.
An individual advocating a manpower planning process may attempt
to persuade colleagues, either in writing or orally, that if certain
general principles were followed, it would increase the probability
of success. These principles have been spelled out by Ewing (197*0-
Before an attempt is made to persuade an individual, it is assumed
that the person doing the persuading has an intended message clearly
in mind, that he or she understands what should be adopted, and that
self-conviction of the merits of the case has been attained. Having
-------
17-3
satisfied these rudimentary requirements, the persuader may then
consider the following:
1. The advocate of the planning process should consider how
much background material is necessary before ideas, di-
rectives, or recommendations are presented for the adop-
tion of a planning system. The advocate must determine
how certain ideas should be stated: Should certain con-
clusions and facts be stated immediately, or should they
be developed logically on the basis of commonly accepted
principles or insights? Which of these strategies is
followed depends upon an assessment of the audience. The
less receptive the audience is expected to be, the more
time might be allocated to developing groundwork. The
more receptive the audience, the more direct the descrip-
tion may be.
2. The advocate should assess his or her credibility with
colleagues. If the individual recommending the adoption
of the manpower planning process within the agency has
considerable credibility within the agency, a more direct
and succinct view of the advantages and disadvantages of
manpower planning might be adequate. If credibility does
not exist, the task will be much more difficult, although
not impossible. It may be facilitated by attempting to
establish credibility. In the case of manpower planning,
it would be helpful to establish credibility by citing
and documenting the success or merits of the manpower
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17-4
planning that have existed in other fields — preferably
those similar to the organization in question.
3. If the advocate's colleagues show evidence of disagree-
ment over the need for manpower planning, or at least are
uncertain about its usefulness, it is advantageous to
present both sides of the argument. Behavioral scientists
have generally found that if an audience is friendly to
a persuader or has no contrary views on the topic and will
get none in the future, a one-sided presentation of a
controversial question is most effective. If the audience
is not so constituted, a much more effective presentation
is one which includes both sides of the argument. Applying
this to the implementation of the manpower planning process,
the individual should present both advantages and disad-
vantages — the benefits and the costs -- of a manpower
planning system. It would seem, however, that there are
reasons to do this, even if the audience is a friendly one.
4. An advocate attempting to implement a manpower planning
process should not attempt to change attitudes by simply
offering additional information. This is an application
of the saying: "Don't confuse me with the facts; my mind
is made up." The point of this is that individuals' opin-
ions are not changed simply by additional information.
If colleagues are not always persuaded by facts, how are
they to be persuaded? It might be worthwhile, in addition
to indicating how other organizations have profited by
-------
17-5
manpower planning, to arrange for individuals from such
organizations to explain some of the details of their
success.
All of the preceding should be considered by someone wishing
to see a particular organization adopt a formal manpower planning
system. There is of course much more that can be said on this sub-
ject, much of which falls within the domain of what is referred to
in the business management and psychology literature as the field of
"organizational development." We urge the advocate of manpower plan-
ning to study the literature in this field, a sample of which is
provided in the selected references at the end of this chapter.
A fifth consideration the persuader should consider is: If
one or two opponents can be identified in advance, they should be
contacted early to win their support. There is danger, however, that
if the presenter does not win them over, they will be better prepared
to oppose.
In previous chapters the case for the importance of manpower
planning has been stated. It has been suggested that among the prin-
cipal reasons for such importance is the failure of the labor market
to provide adequate employment to all people seeking it, as well as
a supply of labor for all organizations demanding it. It has also
been argued that planning is required in even a well-functioning labor
market, as it is in capital or other markets. The extent of such
need, and the resulting formalization or absence thereof, of the plan-
ning process will depend upon the particular attributes of the or-
ganization. Clearly all individuals and organizations plan. What
-------
17-6
we are Interested in is a formalized manpower planning system. Some
member (employee) of the organization will need to determine whether
the organization's manpower needs are adequately satisfied by an
informal interface with the extended labor market or whether worth-
while improvements can be obtained by developing a formal planning
system.
Under certain conditions, planning may be viewed as nothing
more than improving the informational flow of the labor market — a
service provided, for example, by several government agencies es-
pecially the state employment services. Such agencies may provide
information on the availability of certain jobs within a specific
labor market, leaving it up to the initiative of the individual to
decide whether he or she should apply for the job. Other informa-
tional services are more long range than current job opportunities.
The Labor Department, for example, in its Occupational Outlook Hand-
book, provides information pertaining to the long-run prospects for
particular occupations. This forecasting, for it is such, provides
individuals and educational institutions information that is rele-
vant in helping to prepare for future demand by providing the req-
uisite training. Planning may of course include control. Thus in
some situations not only are certain resources allocated to training
for given occupations, but individuals are forced (as it were) to
accept such. The Selective Service System would be an example
of such planning, as would certain internal allocational schemes
within branches of the Armed Services.
Some difficulty is experienced in determining how manpower
planning will come into an agency that has previously not engaged
-------
17-7
in formal manpower planning. For many agencies this function comes
about because it is mandated by the legislation that established the
organization or enters later through amendments to such legislation.
The words and intent of the legislation may not always formally re-
quire manpower planning, but the interpretation placed upon legis-
lation is such as to require a manpower planning capability of the
type we have described in the previous chapter. This does not of
course answer the question of why such legislation was initially
adopted. Presumably it was adopted because the legislators were
persuaded, in some manner, of the need for manpower planning.
For organizations not having a legislative mandate, the adop-
tion of a formal manpower planning process will depend more heavily
upon persuasion. For a planning system to be considered, someone
must expect benefits and consequently suggest its adoption. Whether
such an individual is within or without the organization would not
necessarily affect the claim of the beneficial effects, although it
would conceivably affect the method of persuasion. In either case,
the absence of a legislative mandate will require that some care,
based upon the principles reviewed in the preceding section, will
have to be exercised.
TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF IMPLEMENTATION
We may examine certain aspects of implementation by adopting
the position of someone either within or without (but having access
to) the organization. We begin by asking, "What attributes of an
organization would tend to make the manager minimize (or completely
ignore) the need for a formal manpower planning system?" Alternatively,
-------
17-8
"Why hasn't a manpower planning system already been adopted?" An
organization whose work required that it employ people with skills
generally found throughout the population would find little need
for establishing a formal manpower planning system. Although this
might well be the case for the hiring organization, it is not neces-
sarily the case for the organization that, as an example, provides
the training and thereby determines the number of typing classes to
be taught and the number of students to be allowed in such typing
courses. It would also not be the case for the organization that
employed a large number of typists. The planning function might be
much simpler than we have described, but some rudiments of it would
surely exist. Terminations and growth might exist, each of which
would call for some plans for their continued replenishment.
In any event, the absence of a need for manpower planning in
the employing organization does not imply the absence of planning
for such employment somewhere in the economy. Certainly the training
source will have to determine its allocation of resources, and this
will involve some planning.
Another characteristic of an organization that would minimize
the need, or perceived need, for formal manpower planning is one
where the organization is confronted with an excess supply of indi-
viduals willing to work for it. This may occur because of the pres-
tige of employment in the organization or because of relatively higher
wages paid, as compared to similar employment found elsewhere. To
say, however, that planning is not needed in such a situation is in
error, since some planning must be undertaken in order to decide
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17-9
what criteria should be followed in choosing from this excessive
number of possible employees and what is needed to continue the situa-
tion. Such an organization might be characterized as (perhaps for-
tuitously) engaged in successful manpower practices. It should plan
to maintain whatever good things it has been doing. Although a "com-
plete" manpower planning effort would not in all probability be adopted
by such an organization, the task of recruitment would remain since,
if excess supply of personnel exists, some criteria is required by
which to choose from among them.
A third type of organization that may have minimal needs for
a formal and complete manpower planning system is one that is small
or experiencing a decline in its activities. There is probably some
minimum size required to warrant a formal manpower planning effort.
Many organizations would not be of that size, although they may join
with similarly situated organizations to pool manpower efforts. Such
consolidation would probably require the existence of an umbrella
agency willing and able to do the planning, since the voluntary per-
formance of manpower planning would prove too costly for any single
organization and would, consequently, not be done. For organizations
in a declining industry where output, somehow defined, is declining,
some may argue that there is little need for manpower planning. One
reservation in accepting this proposition, although it is a minor one,
is that in the early period some form of manpower planning might be
needed in order to derive the optimal way in which to dip-nantle employ-
ment. In any event, there is still a need to get the best use of
existing manpower planning.
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17-10
Organizations fitting the description of those outlined above
are poor candidates for the adoption of a formal, full-scale manpower
planning system. This would seem to imply that individuals related
to such organizations, either internally or externally, should move
cautiously in suggesting that a formal planning system be adopted.
Organizations that would be prime candidates for a considerable
manpower planning effort would appear to be those having the inverse
characteristics of those identified in the preceding discussion.
Thus it would be expected that those organizations that employ people
having special skills in short supply, and especially those skills
which have a long lead time in their development, will do well to
engage in formal manpower planning. An industry that is experiencing
significant growth, especially if that growth is sporadic rather than
constant, should profit by manpower planning. Organizations which
have poor job opportunities, and which for some reason are limited
in a way that they can adjust to such circumstances, would profit
from manpower planning. Thus a certain organization may have unde-
sirable working conditions and, because of budgetary restrictions,
not be able to pay sufficient wages to counteract them. The organiza-
tion may therefore only attract low-quality employees, thus giving
rise to abnormally high termination rates, transfer rates, low pro-
ductivity, and many other manpower problems previously identified.
Thus an organization, which by nature of its output is beset by man-
power problems, may profit by hiring or developing a staff to attempt
to mitigate the problems imposed by the constraints under which it
has to operate.
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17-11
MANPOWER PLANNING DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS
Clearly a manpower planning function should be implemented if
the benefits of such a function are greater than the costs and if,
satisfying that criterion, the rate of return to such funds are higher,
or as high, as the rate of return on other activities in which the
organization is engaged. Although this sounds good in principle,
it may be difficult to accomplish, not only because of measurement
problems but more importantly because some planning might itself have
to be conducted in order to demonstrate to management its worth —
the management not wishing to accept evidence of successes elsewhere.
If management is not convinced or is cautious about the possible
value of planning, a demonstration, rather than full-scale, planning
effort would seem to be the most appropriate route to pursue. Should
a demonstration project be requested, it will be important to estab-
lish beforehand the criteria by which the demonstration will be judged
and to agree on measures of success. The individual requesting the
demonstration effort should in turn give considerable thought to
choosing (1) those aspects of an entire planning effort that will
show the process in its best light, or, given a different organiza-
tional structure, (2) those segments of the organization among which
a complete effort will be divided.
The_ Degree of Manpower Planning
Although the most important impediment to establishing a man-
power planning system is some variant of the difficulty «f showing
the benefits relative to the costs of operation, once it has been
agreed to have a formal manpower planning function, there may be
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17-12
disagreement on the most appropriate form that the planning function
should take. One of the more Important disagreements that we have
experienced as to the form of the manpower planning function, and
one that Is closely related to the question of whether the basic
need exists, has been that a specifically proposed planning system
was too complicated — at least for the agency in question. We
shall analyze such accusations more carefully in order to obtain
further insight into some of those issues related to the implementa-
tion of the manpower planning process.
Pour general reasons why someone might claim that a particular
manpower planning process is too complicated for a particular or-
ganization can be identified. These reasons are as follows:
1. Critics do not understand the manpower planning process.
2. Although the critics understand the process, they feel
that those people who would actually have to conduct the
process would not understand it.
3. Critics feel that both they and the practitioner would under-
stand the process but that the process when established
would take more resources than are generally available to
the agency.
4. Critics argue that manpower planning is a much simpler process
than the one under consideration has been defined to be.
In fact, they imply that it is so simple that no formal
system is required.
Reasons (1) and (2) involve questions concerning the abilities
either of those who are in the process of defining and establishing
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a manpower planning system to make it understandable to the intended
audience or the abilities of the intended audience to understand
explanations of a given process. It is possible that the ability
to simplify by those charged with establishing a manpower planning
process is limited. This of course can be eliminated by changing
the staff or the consultant assigned to establish a manpower plan-
ning system, or by improving the capability of the existing staff.
Alternatively, there may be some limit as to how much a particular
process can be simplified; thus, for example, it may be that there
are people in the world that cannot understand relatively simple
explanations of the theory of relativity or of quantum mechanics.
Whatever the reason, we do not accept reasons (1) and (2) as being
relevant for the kind of situation we have in mind in the real world.
In other words, we feel that the manpower planning process can be
made rudimentary enough for any audience to understand. Such sim-
plicity, we should hasten to add, will be done at the expense of
some effectiveness within the process.
A failure to accommodate the objections in (1) and (2) is ac-
tually an extension, or so it may be viewed, for reason (3) — the
manpower planning process is too complicated because there are in-
sufficient resources allowed to explain and establish the system to
those who will have to operate it. This third reason a manpower
planning process may be deemed too complicated (i.e., insufficient
resources) can be separated into the problem of either not having
a large enough staff or, although having a large enough staff, having
misplaced or incompetent people on it. The latter point refers back
to the discussion on the abilities surrounding reasons (1) and (2),
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while the first (size of the staff) implies a need within the man-
power planning process itself to establish some priorities of effort
or, more correctly, a cost/benefit analysis of the process. Thus if
the manpower process, as defined in this book, were to be applied in
total to a particular organization it might cost, for example, $100,000
a year. If only $50,000 a year is available, some cuts in the process
will have to be made. This implies that we will have to develop a
method of allocation within the planning process based upon principles
similar to those discussed in the planning steps. The art of planning
must be applied to the manpower planning process itself.
The final reason that individuals may argue that a particular
manpower planning process is too complicated is the perfectly plau-
sible conclusion that the manpower planning process for the agency
in question is much simpler than we have made it out to be for the
general case. This is of course a question of fact and in principle
a testable assertion as to whether the planning process can be made
simpler than it has been. If the organization requires a simpler
process, will such a process be an abbreviated form of the process
developed in this book? We think so. Insofar as this logic applies
to large and small systems, then simpler (smaller) systems will be
versions of the complete system. We turn to a more thorough analysis
of these points because they are related to other issues raised pre-
viously — the allocation of scarce funds to the planning process
itself.
Reasons for Failure of Manpower Planning Efforts
In our various experiences we have observed several reasons
why manpower planning efforts seem to fail -- or at least fail to
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live up to the initial expectations held for such efforts. These
reasons are as follows:
1. An insufficient commitment to the manpower planning effort
2. The manpower planning was poorly done.
3- There was disagreement within the agency over the appro-
priate methods for doing manpower planning.
4. Significantly high turnover of the leadership within the
manpower planning program.
In order for a manpower effort to be successful, a critical mass of
effort has to be invested in it. If too few resources are invested
or funds are allocated sporadically, manpower planning becomes no
more than gazing into a crystal ball. Most initial efforts at what
is called manpower planning have been in the form of making gross
projections of future employment needs. These projections have most
often been based upon procedures, the nature of which are often not
revealed to the reader. The procedures have not been repeated, or
if they have been repeated have been done so using different assump-
tions, although the nature of these differences is unclear. Aside
from the possible propaganda value of such estimates, the effort
invested In them Is wasted.
Sometimes evidence for insufficient commitment is found in the
type of personnel assigned to the manpower planning staff. Although
the number of man-hours devoted to planning might seem adequate to
produce a reputable manpower plan, the quality of the personnel as-
signed to the office might be inferior, as will be the resulting
product. Such assignments might be a reflection of the relatively
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low esteem that management has for the manpower planning effort.
This type of behavior most often would occur, or so it would seem,
in those agencies where there has been a legislative mandate to
engage in manpower planning but not a wholehearted commitment on
the part of the agency leadership that such an effort is worthwhile.
Another aspect of a possibly insufficient commitment to man-
power planning is in the response given by management to the plans
developed by the manpower planner. If the management does not feel
the manpower planning effort is a worthwhile allocation of agency
resources, or if there is a lack of faith in the specific manpower
planning officer, management may not adopt the recommendations.
One frequent problem in not only implementing but also sus-
taining any effort in manpower planning is the turnover in the leader-
ship either in the agency or the manpower planning office. When
new leaders come to the agency, the order of priorities of things the
agency is to do may change, or even if no such changes are introduced,
the way in which given priorities are executed might be altered. If
priorities change, the manpower function may rise or fall. So far
as the manpower planning effort is concerned, it is better that the
former rather than the latter occur. But even when the former occurs,
the change in leadership — if the leadership brings new ideas on
how manpower planning should be done — will introduce some inef-
ficiency in executing the manpower planning steps.
A new agency head or a new manpower planning officer may main-
tain previous priorities, assign considerable emphasis to the estab-
lishing of a manpower planning capability, but wish to establish this
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capability in a manner at variance with all that has been estab-
lished prior to assession to the leadership position. Each of these
possibilities will test the manpower planner's ability to survive
within the organization and to implement a worthwhile program.
The effectiveness of the manpower planning effort is reduced
by disagreement within the agency either as to the methods of actually
doing the manpower planning or as to the division of authority over
who should do it. Often these disagreements are of such a nature
that had they been resolved one way or the other, a full-hearted
dedication to manpower planning, regardless of the method used, would
have been an improvement over what was undertaken in the presence
of unresolved differences.
An Order of Manpower Planning Priorities
The task of establishing an order of priorities among the sev-
eral manpower planning steps is a difficult one and, as suggested
in previous chapters, a dangerous one. While we have previously
allowed that differences of opinion will exist concerning both the
content and sequence of planning steps, to impose some ranking on
these steps will invite further controversy. What is important in
our subsequent discussion, however, is not so much the particular
ranking that we establish or the attaining of some consensus in regard
to it, but rather the general rationale for why some ranking might
be necessary, if for no other reason than to establish relative
weights within the manpower planning process.
It is perhaps misleading to speak of establishing priorities
or a ranking among the manpower planning steps. Such terminology
might seem to imply the complete elimination of certain steps, when
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the budget of the planning office was inadequate. Such complete
elimination of tasks is generally not the optimal — assuming all
tasks essential — way to proceed, as we have explained in chapter 15.
When a budget reduction is experienced, all activities should ex-
perience some diminution, although possibly in varying amounts. If
budgets were permanently increased, the converse would in general be
optimal: a variable increase in all essential activities. These
common-sense observations are simple verbal explanations of what has
-been established in optimization theory for a large class of optimiza-
tion problems. If some objective can be achieved by engaging in
several tasks, it will generally be more efficient to engage in all
such tasks, rather than rely exclusively upon only a portion of them.
Most objectives are often to be achieved under constrait — the most
common constraint being a budgetary one. If constraints are tightened
(relaxed), the resulting decreases (increases) in the tasks should
be relaxed to the relative effectiveness of such tasks in achieving
the given objective.
When we speak of priorities and rankings below, we shall do so
in the spirit of trying to weigh the relative effectiveness of the
various manpower planning steps in achieving manpower planning ob-
jectives. Therefore our ranking or ordering of priorities is simply
a weighting scheme which can be used as a guide when the manpower
planning effort has to be contracted or expanded.
A possible ranking of the manpower planning steps is as follows:
1. Forecasting of future employment characteristics
2. Measurement of employment characteristics
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3. Analysis of manpower problems
i\. Development of manpower programs
5. Performance control
6. Inventory of current personnel characteristics
7. Determination of agency objectives
We shall not attempt to fully rationalize this ranking and will not
attempt to assign relative weights. We simply offer an ordinal rather
than a cardinal ranking.
We should note that when establishing priorities is viewed as
a weighting scheme, it is possible to assign equal weights to each
manpower planning step. If this is done, then as constraints changed,
all tasks would be changed equally. This fact permits some latitude
in our analysis, for it implies that it is not required that we always
must designate that one step is preferred over, or more effective
than, another.
The first position in the ranking appears to be the most dif-
ficult to determine (agree upon). In our listing we have assigned
the "forecasting of future employment characteristics" to this spot.
We have done so for several reasons. Most agencies are concerned
about the magnitude of future manpower needs. What they expect to
occur in the future will affect their behavior today. Present and
future budgets will depend in part upon projections of future man-
power conditions, either in the agency or in those activities with
which the agency is involved. Many agencies, when they have initiated
some slight effort in the manpower planning area, have concentrated
on estimating future manpower needs — most often in the form of
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projections of increased manpower requirements. This historical
observation lends some merit to assigning this step top priority.
Our second position has been assigned to the measurement task.
Good projections of future manpower conditions are no better than
the data on which they are based. This would imply that establish-
ing such a base, much of which is accomplished in the measuring of
current employment characteristics, is a relatively important task.
It is perhaps so important to the projection task that some would
assign it a greater weight. A compromise would be to assign equal
weights.
When we go beyond the projection and measurement steps, the
task of establishing the relative weights becomes more difficult,
yet if consensus is -achieved on the first two, perhaps less important.
The analysis of manpower problems occupies our third position. In
measuring and forecasting employment characteristics, one obtains a
general feel for manpower needs and issues. To penetrate such general
knowledge, one needs an analysis of the data in terms of searching
for and identifying possible problems.
The fourth position is the development of manpower programs and
the fifth is performance control. Our reasoning here is that it is
necessary to attempt to remedy problems when identified and improve
upon the planning process whenever possible. Our final priority is
that assigned to determining the objectives of the public agency as
it reflects in the manpower objectives.
MANPOWER PLANNING STAFF
An important consideration in establishing a manpower planning
capability is the establishing of a manpower planning staff. Ideally,
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there should be someone within the organization whose job title is
"manpower planner." The individual who occupies this position should
have his or her own staff, the size and nature of which will depend
upon the size of the organization, the type of manpower employed,
and the type and condition of the labor market in which the organiza-
tion must operate. The size will also vary to some extent upon the
expectations of management for manpower planning, particularly as
such expectations relate to the accuracy and degree of coverage of
the planning process.
Evolution of Manpower Planning Staffs
In the initial phases of an organization's involvement with
manpower planning, two characteristics are quite common: (1) the
requirement to do manpower planning is mandated by legislation, and
(2) the persons assigned to do the work either have other responsi-
bilities within the organization or federal monies are involved to
hire someone on a demonstration and (hence, unfortunately, oft-times)
temporary basis.
It would seem natural to presume that if the individual doing
the planning, whether a current employee with other responsibilities
or the new federally subsidized employee on a temporary basis, were
successful, planning efforts would be expanded through increased
funding or staff commitment. Such is not always the case. First,
it is difficult to determine, at least in a relatively short period
of time, what "success" is. Second, even if success had been made
and appropriately measured, the assumption that the planning effort
would be expanded assumes that the funds or staff are available and,
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if they were, that management was always rational in expending such
funds. Although some may decry the waste in certain public agencies,
there is, on the other hand, many worthwhile projects that cannot
be undertaken because of the absence of appropriate funds.
If success were perhaps less universally agreed upon, although
agreement did exist that the planning effort had increased the or-
ganization's performance, and funds were available for staff expansion,
it is not clear that the planning effort would be so expanded. If
funds are available but not earmarked for manpower planning, they
become targets for -other departments to obtain. Thus the planning
office must compete for funds. Allocations of such existing funds
may not be made on rational or efficient grounds and may reflect the
"political realities" of a situation. They may also reflect the per-
sonalities of department heads. Although we may deplore such methods
of allocation, to deny that they exist, and plan accordingly, is not
wise. The planner must not always shun Machiavellian concepts in
competing for funds.
In those fortunate circumstances where a full manpower planning
staff can be assembled, certain criteria should be followed. In the
same way that human engineers were consulted in the occupational de-
sign of given plants, a similar task should be undertaken for the
determination of the appropriate size and distribution of a planning
staff. At a minimum, however, it would appear that a manpower de-
velopment staff should consist of a manpower planning officer, a train-
ing officer (what we might call a "manpower technician"), and a clerk-
typist. Functional descriptions of these occupations, with the exception
of the clerk-typist, follow.
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Functions of a_Manp_pwer Development Staff
The manpower planning staff in a public organization at the
state or local level will usually develop and provide for the im-
plementation of programs directed at assuring the continued avail-
ability of trained and motivated personnel to the organization. The
staff should provide a focal point for matters relating to manpower
planning, development, and use. The staff should also coordinate the
development of a manpower planning system to relate manpower needs to
training requirements; coordinate, develop, and manage programs in
the state to train employees; and coordinate a program to develop
curricula and training materials in support of programs.
In addition, the staff develops cooperative federal, state, and
local intergovernmental relationships, and provides the initiative
and leadership in the development of local programs.
Manpower Planners
The general duties of manpower planners are as follows:
1. They obtain measurements of current and forecasts of future
manpower and training requirements relative to their or-
ganization. They design methods and procedures for pro-
ducing, processing, storing, and communicating the required
data. They foster the establishment of related capabilities
in smaller area manpower agencies. They coordinate pro-
cedures and information channels with appropriate state
planning, labor, and education agencies.
2. In cooperation with appropriate staff within the organization,
in education, employment security, and other state agencies,
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planners prepare action plans for developing the required
work force and for overcoming manpower development and
utilization problems. They conduct special studies to
identify and overcome problems related to manpower recruit-
ment, retention, and use. They also point up major man-
power inadequacies to be dealt with, and suggest specific
action plans such as recruitment, training, and job re-
structuring, to ensure that the numbers and types of man-
power needed will be available and properly used. They
make sure that all plans are formulated into a cohesive
overall manpower program that will best serve the objectives
of the organization and be compatible with the goals and
arrangements of the programs for manpower development and
equal employment opportunities of other public agencies.
3. Planners provide specialized assistance to other staffs
within and related to the organization in relation to the
development of manpower recruitment, retention, and use.
They also keep informed of the state-of-the-art in the
field of manpower planning and related policies, programs,
and procedures of the federal government and other state
agencies. They also identify problem areas and conduct
studies to determine the most practicable and feasible
remedial action.
4. With the assistance of federal guidelines, manpower planners
may develop, coordinate, and implement a statewide system
for the production, maintenance, and dissemination of
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manpower planning criteria covering those areas for which
their organization is responsible.
The qualifications of the manpower planner are as follows:
1. A formal education (college degree) is desirable in a
pertinent discipline, including industrial psychology and
engineering, business administration, education, economics,
and engineering.
2. General requirements of the manpower planner should be:
a. Knowledge of the organization. Such knowledge should
include its programs, organizational arrangements,
policies, objectives, intergovernmental relationships,
and managerial processes involved.
b. Basic understanding of processes and equipment involved
in the employment sectors of the organization and the
practices employed for their management.
c. Knowledge and ability to apply modern managerial con-
cepts and techniques for planning, information proc-
essing, manpower utilization analysis, personnel
administration, and so forth.
d. Knowledge of federal and state programs directed at
ensuring fair employment practices and promoting entry
of the disadvantaged into the mainstream of American
life.
Because of the interdisciplinary aspects, it is probably not
practicable to recruit an individual fully qualified for this posi-
tion. Many of the skills and knowledge identified should be acquired
through training, work experience, and reading.
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e. General knowledge of the education and training process
and the related roles and responsibilities of govern-
ment agencies and private institutions in the state.
f. Knowledge of and ability to apply manpower planning tech-
niques — developing occupational definitions, relating
manpower and training requirements to current and future
workloads, determining turnover rates, and so on.
g. Ability to prepare clear and concise reports of findings
and analyses and recommendations.
h. Ability to establish and maintain effective communica-
tions and relationships.
i. Ability to perform manpower-related duties with other
government agencies, private organizations, or the
Armed Forces.
Manpower Training Officers
The training officer should be one who works for the organization.
While they serve in a versatile capacity as teacher, guidance coun-
selor, and training officer, they also administer and coordinate train-
ing programs and grants.
They establish, operate, and control statewide training programs
for professional and subprofessional personnel. In addition, they
coordinate and maintain continuing liaison with federal, state, and
municipal agencies. They also coordinate with other agencies and
develop programs to train employees, and coordinate and manage programs
throughout the state.
Manpower training officers assist in the development of special
training needs and course content and coordinate programs to develop
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curricula and training materials in support of programs. They provide
assistance to educational institutions to obtain resources for train-
ing. They assist educational institutions to implement the curriculum
and conduct special training courses when other training resources
are not available. In addition to performing direct training-type
work and operating special courses for upgrading professional, sub-
professional, and technical personnel (primarily in the areas of de-
sign, operation, and maintenance), they develop new educational
techniques and assist in the selection of instructional material
and supplies, such as training and audio-visual aids, and laboratory
equipment necessary for training programs.
Training officers serve as training advisers, providing'educa-
tion and guidance assistance, and evaluate procedures, curricula,
instructional methods, and techniques, the adequacy and use of train-
ing aids, and devices and facilities. They apply their professional
knowledge of the principles and practices of education, training,
curricula, and organization. They also monitor the effectiveness of
training programs and improve the program.
Moreover, training officers review and evaluate methods of
instruction, enrollee motivation, and training materials and equip-
ment. They also review agenda and course materials for timeliness,
accuracy, content, and educational adequacy. They recommend and im-
plement techniques to be applied in evaluating and predicting trainee
progress and in evaluating the effectiveness and relevancy of in-
structional materials, methods, and techniques.
To qualify as a manpower training officer, individuals should
have a bachelor's degree in education or the social sciences. They
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should be familiar with training activities in order to set up train-
ing programs, and should have experience in dealing with state govern-
ment, the state department of instruction, the state's vocational
education department, local (municipal) governments, and all local
employment services operations. The greatest criterion is of course
that they should be able to work with manpower planners.
Manpower Planning Technicians
The duties of manpower planning technicians are as follows:
1. To assist the manpower planning specialist to develop
forecasts of manpower and training requirements (relating
to supply) of governmental and private organizations in
the state; and to produce, process, store, and communicate
the required data
2. In cooperation with the appropriate organization's staff
and staffs of education, employment security, and other
state agencies; to contribute to the preparation of action
plans for developing the required work force and for over-
coming manpower development and utilization problems
3. To provide assistance to the supervisor — as well as to
other organizations — to local water pollution control
agencies and private organizations in relation to the de-
velopment of manpower forecasts and overcoming problems
of manpower recruitment, retention, and use
4. To maintain and disseminate a statewide system of manpower
planning criteria
5. To compile, help analyze, and evaluate technical, statistical,
and administrative data
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A FINAL WORD
This book has been directed to manpower planners working for
a public organization. Much of what we have said applies, however,
to a planner working within a private firm. Even the content of this
final word has universal application, although the specifics we wish
to stress are particularly pertinent to someone working in the public
sector.
We have referred repeatedly to the planner as being a member
of a managerial team. In varying degrees the planner reports to and
takes direction from the manager of the organization. More appropriate
terminology might be that the planner reports to and is directed by
a bureau chief. Whatever the title, the head of the organization is
often someone who either holds the position as a result of the political
process or has the size of the budget so determined. In some cases
the bureau chief or manager will be directly appointed as a result of
political considerations rather than those of civil service. Even
though the position may be one covered by civil service, nevertheless,
important political factors may contribute to appointment. The size
of the budget in the majority of cases will be determined by political
considerations, and continued support depends upon technical and
political success.
The manpower planner should be viewed as an agent of government.
As such we need to remind ourselves that a government engages in two
primary functions: to provide goods and services, and to manage and
resolve conflicts that arise from the provision of such goods and
services. The bureau chief, cum politician, is involved in the exer-
cise of these functions. As politician, the manager is often called
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upon, therefore, to engage in such activities as representing the
electorate to formulate the policy and programs, to be an expositor
of certain policies and programs, to serve as critic to alternative
policies, to serve as mediator and arbitrator of conflicting claims
within the organization, and to engage in compromises between com-
peting policies and programs.
The manpower planner needs to understand this role of the manager
not only in the technical aspects of such a job, but also in the
political aspects of the job. In a very real sense the manpower
planner is an assistant to the manager or bureau chief in those matters
relating to manpower policy and programs. The effectiveness of this
assistance will be increased with an awareness of the constraints
imposed upon the manager. This would imply that in order to increase
the probability of a successful implementation of a manpower program,
the planner should work at being more effective as an assistant to
the manager. To this end, manpower planners must engage in the follow-
ing general activities:
1. They must assist the politician to see in detail the implica-
tions of the politician's goals and the means which are re-
quired to attain them. This must be done, even though by
the time the manpower plans are ready, the politician or
bureau chief may be unable or unwilling to move toward the
goals originally specified.
2. Planners must facilitate the politician's decision making.
Even if a politican acts by hunch or by intuition, it is
useful to have at his or her disposal a certain number of
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more apparently scientific methods of reaching decisions.
It is also comforting to the politician to know that others
reached the same conclusion through the use of "scientific
method" as he or she had reached by a process of combining
political instinct and pragmatic assessment!
3- Planners must assist the politician by seeking to identify
problems. On many occasions the politician is a man or
woman who has a difficulty with every solution. Planners
should, however, be able to identify the various problems
existing within a given organization and submit to the
politician a series of options for dealing with them. They
must also assist the executive in implementing the options
which the politician has decided to favor. Planners must
also seek to monitor the results of the choice made in order
that such results might be tested scientifically, as well
as politically and pragmatically, at the ballot box.
4. Planners must recognize that the government process often
proceeds by crisis, conflict, and resolution. This is a
continuing process at the political level of government.
Planners will be better able to help politicians if they
recognize an individual politician acts out his or her
public life and discharges public responsibility within a
continuous process of challenge and response.
CONCLUSION
Before establishing a manpower planning process, individuals
in a public agency must have a firm notion of why manpower planning
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is needed. They must be able to defend manpower planning. There must
be a felt need, and once this need has been felt and established, then
a commitment to manpower planning can be made, This felt need may
be based either upon hard evidence or a "feeling" that such evidence
would exist if the appropriate procedures (i.e., manpower planning)
were adopted. There may be a "feeling" that there is an insufficient
number of trained people or too many vacancies, or that there's a high
turnover in personnel. Something of this nature must exist before a
documented need for manpower planning exists.
It is advisable not to begin a manpower planning process until
there is an effective decision-making process within the agency. This
is an extension of what we have previously discussed under the rubric
of organization behavior and development. The relationships of the
manpower planner with the other members of the management team should
be firmly established as soon as possible. This should also be ex-
tended to interrelationships of the agency itself with state, regional,
and federal agencies, as well as private relationships involved in
the various aspects of manpower planning. Although we do not issue
this advice as a prohibition to planning if an effective decision-
making process does not exist, nevertheless, we caution manpower
planners that if they are to effectuate their plans, if the work that
they do is to have value through implementation, there must be an
effective decision making process into which they can feed the results
of their research.
Finally, we suggest that during the initial stages of implemen-
tation, the agency and the manpower planning officer not attempt to
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do too much. We would not advise that during the first months of
the planning effort computer programs for forecasting future manpower
conditions be devised and implemented, but rather that the planning
be done more incrementally and in general on a more modest level.
Within this framework we also suggest that in order to maintain both
the morale of the planning staff and the interest of the agency manage-
ment, concrete results are needed within the initial period of the
planning effort. It is our opinion that in order to establish a firm
and smoothly working manpower planning function, the planning office
needs to consummate at least three cycles of the planning system. This
is to establish in the data base an experience in forecasting and
some techniques for adjusting. But during the initial stages, certain
results are also needed to maintain morale and interest, and for this
reason during the first months, some forecasts of the manpower needs
should be made — and some analysis of the manpower problems should
also be made. So important is the establishment of a record of success
that the selection of a problem upon which success is demonstrable
may be of top priority, and :'"i the selection of this problem, it may
be well to consult with operating heads to help determine those problems
with the greatest priority.
SELECTED REFERENCES
Ewing, David W. Writing for Results. New York: Wiley Interscience
Publications": 1974.
Machiavelli, Niccolo. The Prince. New York: E. P. Dutton & Co., Inc.
1928.
U. S. Department of Labor. Occupatlonal_0utlook Handbook. Washington,
D.C.: U, S. Government Printing Office. Various years.
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