United States Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory Research Triangle Park NC 27711 Research and Development EPA-600/S3-84-041 Apr. 1984 Project Summary Regional Acid Deposition: Models and Physical Processes This report presents the results of a 10-month study on the current status of research on fundamental concepts and physical processes relevant to regional acid deposition modeling. The role of models in environmental assessment is described first. This is followed by a review of existing models in a chapter designed to establish a reference framework for the bulk of the report. Most, if not all, of the principal concepts in model construction and evaluation are discussed. After extensive discus- sions of state-of-the-art regional me- teorological modeling and the chemistry of acid generation in the troposphere are presented, the discussion focuses on the development of a new generation of acid deposition models. Based on the topics reviewed, the desirable features of a comprehensive model are described with emphasis on components needing great improvement or omitted in pre- sent models. These features include emissions data, detailed acid rain chemistry, cloud processes, dry deposi- tion, model validation, and sensitivity analysis. This Project Summary was developed by EPA's Environmental Sciences Re- search Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC, to announce key findings of the research project that is fully documented in a separate report of the same title (see Project Report ordering information at back). Introduction Although the acid rain phenomenon has been recognized for the past 100 years, im- portant features of the acid rain problem are new: (a) quantitative questions are perceived that must be answered to fully understand the essential chemical and meteorological processes, and (b) mathematical models and field- and laboratory-measured programs are available to investigate these questions. Similarly, now available are reasonably logical and mature formulations of relation- ships between ecological systems (and physical structures) and acid deposition that can be investigated quantitatively. Also, as noted above, public awareness of the poten- tial effects and probable causes of acid rain is new, as is the understanding that some kinds of pollution traverse political boundaries. The bulk of the report examines the full range of meteorological and chemical pro- cesses that are involved in the overall phenomenon that is, the production and deposition of acidified rain, snow, fog, and mist, and the dry deposition of acid anhy- drides over important inhabited regions, such as the east central United States and Canada. Particular attention is given to issues in the study of acid rain through mathematical models. Although the scien- tific questions dictate the kinds of field measurements, laboratory experiments, and model development to be undertaken (all of which are necessary), particular interest is in how to develop and employ credible models. A credible model is defined as one built on basic physical and chemical pro- cesses that can test hypotheses and guide the design and assessment of field measure- ment programs; its ultimate use is for predicting acid deposition rates and source- receptor relationships and for reliably estimating the effects of emission control strategies. The Physical Picture To understand and model the acid rain phenomenon one must recognize a wide range of physical and chemical processes and their interactions. Briefly, these are (a) emissions of materials that cause and regu- late acidity in precipitation and deposition. ------- (b) meteorological motions that transport and dilute the emitted substances laterally and vertically, (c) the various physical and chemical transformations that alter the physical phase and chemical properties (e.g., valence or oxidation state) of the emitted substances, and (d) the meteorological fac- tors and surface adhesiveness that lead to deposition of the transformed substances. Less recognized than the above processes are those properties of the Earth's surface that control the rate of uptake of dry materials (e.g., gaseous S02 and/or airborne particles). Because the principal acids in precipitation are sulfuric (H2SO4) and nitric (HN03), most concern is with sulfur and nitrogen emis- sions. However, the hydrocarbons and their oxidation products are important reactants in the chemistry which ultimately leads to HN03 and H2S04. Estimates of anthropo- genic emissions of SO2 (mostly from coal- and oil-burning electrical power plants and metal-smelting plants) and of NOX (mostly NO and N02 from high temperature combus- tion processes, including those in auto and truck engines and power plants) are rea- sonably reliable for the world's industrialized countries. Much less credible, but probably less important, are estimates of natural emis- sions of organic sulfur gases and of natural NOX compounds. Natural sources of gaseous NH3 and particulate NH4+, gaseous hydrocarbons, airborne mineral dusts, and lightning-produced NOX must also be estimated reliably. Minor contributions to precipitation acidity from HCI and organic acids are often negligible. Whether the key emissions are an- thropogenic or natural, they are injected in- to the atmosphere at or near the Earth's surface, usually within the planetary bound- ary layer. Accordingly, boundary layer meteorology is at the core of the acid rain problem. The physics of turbulence and con- vection, diurnal variation in surface heating, terrain geometry, and surface and boundary layer hydrology exert strong control over the initial dispersion of the emitted substances. Further, during the time these substances spend in the boundary layer, their physical environment (e.g., temperature, pressure, humidity, available sunlight) and proximity to surfaces and to other pollutants such as aerosol particles control the rate and type of chemical transformations that occur. These chemical transformations differ markedly from those that normally occur above the boundary layer in the free troposphere. Perhaps only one important acid precursor or regulator, NOX from lightning, does not begin its atmospheric life in the boundary layer, although background tropospheric ozone is central to all tropospheric chemistry. In dirty or clean air, in the boundary layer and above, chemicals react with each other. The precise rates and types of reactions de- pend strongly on the local pressure, temperature, available sunlight (both direct and scattered), the presence of liquid and vapor H20, and on the production of photochemical oxidants (like ozone and peroxyacetylnitrate co-reactants). The discussion is organized into categories of homogeneous reactions (gaseous and liquid) and heterogeneous processes and by prin- cipal categories of chemical species. Key considerations include the exact rates of transformation (oxidation) of S02 and NOX into H2SO4 and HNO3, respectively, the major pathways of transformation, and the essential controlling agents. In an oxidizing atmosphere such as that of the Earth, the oxidation of S02 and IMOX to H2S04 and HN03 is inescapable, given enough time in the atmosphere. In characterizing regional acid deposition, however, one must determine what fraction of a region's total emissions is oxidized and deposited within the region and what frac- tion of the total is transported long distance (at high altitudes, for example) for eventual deposition onto territories hundreds or thousands of kilometers from the sources. That is, a credible description and model of this physical system must include quan- titative treatment of material transport and transformation above the boundary layer. Similarly, the factors that limit the rate of sur- face deposition and uptake of gases (dry deposition) must be treated quantitatively. These factors include nearground tur- bulence, the condition and type of the sur- face (e.g., vegetation, soils), and the chemical stickiness and reactivity of the rele- vant substances on the surfaces. Existing Models and Components of Models Two distinct types of models used are defined, described, and compared for stu- dying long-range transport of air pollutants: Eulerian grid models and Lagrangian trajec- tory models. Also, because of different goals and problems facing air pollution meteorologists and chemists, it has been useful to develop and employ distinctly dif- ferent models for air quality modeling (AOM) and acid deposition modeling (ADM). For ADM, it is concluded that the three- dimensional nature of the problem and the importance of simulating with adequate generality specific source distributions and eventual control strategies require an Eulerian framework. Although ADM has improved the understanding of the acid rain problem, a number of phenomena have not yet been fully treated largely because the ADM field is relatively new. Reasonably well-based treatments of each phenomenon have been attempted, but the best available mathematical parameterizations have not been coupled within one model. Individual models tend to be strong in one respect, but very weak in others. A number of funda- mental weaknesses that are widespread, or even ubiquitous, can be mentioned. For ex- ample, existing acid deposition models do not allow for mixing of pollutants above the boundary layer. Similarly, no recognition is given to different types of precipitation (rain, snow, dew, etc.) or to the temperature and pH that characterize precipitation scaveng- ing and acid formation. No cloud-chemical processes have been considered, nor have fundamental (or elementary) chemical reac- tions been treated with sufficient detail. In- stead, linear overall transformation rates have been employed. (For example, the con- version rate of S02 to S04= has been set equal to x% per hour without regard to mechanisms or controlling factors, although seasonal dependence of x is sometimes per- mitted.) No published model has included reasonably complete chemical reaction schemes, and nitrogen oxides are usually omitted entirely. Similarly, dry deposition of pollutants has been simulated with fixed deposition velocities; and dependences on winds, surface topography, moisture, and vegetation types have been ignored. Sub- grid-scale inhomogeneities in emissions, transport, chemical reaction types and rates, and deposition have not been included. Few data and the use of nonmechanistic model parameterizations have led to more model "tuning" than is desirable. Consequently, much verification of ADM work is required. The ADM and regional meteorological modeling (RMM) fields have a longer history and a greater data base than acid deposition modeling. Fortunately, AQM and RMM techniques and results are valuable for ADM development. For example, the experience and results of AQM researchers in dealing with large numbers of chemical reactions can be tapped. Schemes to classify and to reduce systematically the numbers of in- dependent chemical reaction equations of- fer help to ADM. Also, methods of incorporating emissions into air quality models and the AQM emissions data base itself are largely applicable in ADM. The relative maturity and quantitative nature of the RMM field can be of enormous benefit to those developing more general and realistic acid deposition models. Thus, over- view of regional meteorological models is presented, history of their goals, methods, and capabilities is outlined; and the principal components of these models are identified. ------- Briefly, these are the mathematical or numerical aspects and the more physical features. In the former category, we review the essential features of the spatial grids in these models, the various numerical methods employed to solve the governing partial differential equations, the lateral boundary conditions, and the overriding need for adequate data analysis and data in- itialization. Each of these RMM components, as well as the main purposes of RMM, is closely related and applicable to the task at hand in ADM, namely to model accurately the' dispersion and transport of pollutants. Similarly, physical aspects of regional meteorological models that have been im- proved and tested will benefit ADM develop- ment. These physical aspects include the transport of heat, moisture and momentum at the Earth's surface, in the planetary boundary layer, and free troposphere, and the energy sources and sinks that govern the transports. Also included are phase changes of water and the interaction of radiation with clouds and the surface. Because these physical phenomena occur on many disparate spatial scales, including scales shorter than a model's grid spacing, param- eterizations are necessary — for example, to relate the cumulative effect of subgrid-scale phenomena on the fluid flow to the model- resolvable scales of motion. We review parameterizations of surface processes, of planetary boundary layer processes, of con- densation and evaporation processes, and of radiative effects of layered clouds in current models; and we identify strong indicators of profitable research. Another important consideration in the field of RMM that will be directly useful in ADM is that of objective measures of model skill, i.e., the accuracy of model predictions. Several standard quantitative measures of forecast skill are reviewed and also sum- marize the state of the art of RMM's to forecast (precipitation, for example). RMM methods will serve as good preliminary guides for measuring objectively the ability of acid deposition models to forecast deposi- tion patterns (say, annual totals) or deposi- tion amounts in distinct events. Because of the great potential for transfer- ring methods and parameterizations from RMM to ADM, components of the former models have been reviewed in some detail. First, the need for objective analysis is recognized — irregularly spaced initial meteorological data must be transformed to provide initial conditions on a model grid. The techniques, quality, computational costs, and history of objective analysis methods are summarized, and several case studies are discussed. The related need for data initialization is discussed in similar detail. General physical considerations, mathe- matical analysis, and experience with meteorological models can indicate gen- eral spectral and transient characteristics of data-caused noise. In specific applica- tions (e.g., for a specific regional topog- raphy and synoptic situation), RMM pro- vides sound theory and practical experi- ence to guide the choice of initialization procedure. Accordingly, unneeded compu- tational costs can be avoided. Because boundary conditions must be specified to solve differential equations, principal techniques used in RMM (spatial damp- ing (or sponge) conditions, wave-radiation conditions) and bounded derivative schemes are reviewed with respect to various ADM applications. Numerical methods and mathematical principles for objective analysis, data initialization, and boundary conditions are also reviewed. Once again, the available general theory plus the ex- perience of RMM researchers constitute a well-based foundation for ADM development. On a more physical side, the essential RMM components mentioned above, sur- face physics and effects, planetary boundary layer physics and effects, and the thermo- dynamic and radiative physics and effects of clouds and precipitation are also reviewed. The methods and problems extent in the field of RMM are very close to those that will prevail in ADM. The Chemistry of Acid Generation in the Troposphere The chemical phenomena and reaction sets in existing acid deposition models are far from complete for many reasons. An in- adequate understanding of long-range transport of pollutants, whose importance has only recently been perceived by the public and its agencies, has prompted much ADM work to focus on the meteorological aspects of transboundary transport. Also in- complete and confusing until recently has been mechanistic information on the actual chemical processes that transform S02 into sulfuric acid and N0x into nitric acid. Fur- ther, the chemistry of acid generation is more complicated than that of regional chemical oxidants; the former involves gas-phase and aqueous reactions, while the latter is due to gas-phase reactions alone. Accordingly, the discussions and review of the chemistry of acid generation are focused at first on the essential chemistry itself rather than the chemistry in the existing ADM's. The main categories of the review are gas-phase reactions, aqueous-phase and heterogeneous processes, and photodis- sociative processes. Any credible ADM must be based upon reaction mechanisms as op- posed to depending completely on^param- eterizations of overall reaction or transformation rates. For example, this simple parameterization in widespread use is inherently linear: The rate of production of SO4= is proportional to the gaseous S02 concentration. In reality, the supply of chemicals that oxidize S02 to S04= might be limited in certain locations, and little or no SO«= production could take place even when large amounts of S02 are available. Similarly, the S02-to-S04= conver- sion rate probably depends on the exact species that is accompanying the oxidation so that the rate x is not constant but varies with time. Analogous fundamental con- siderations apply to the conversion of NOx to nitric acid, to the production of photochemical oxidants like ozone and per- oxyacetylnitrate, and to the production of S02 from biogenic organic sulfides, for example. The main goal of the very detailed presen- tations is to identify from available research results the principal elementary reaction mechanisms and key species in the gas- phase, aqueous-phase, and heterogeneous reactions that cause and control acid genera- tion. From a complex and encyclopedic list of chemicals and reactions, a smaller, more concise list of chemical variables and pro- cesses must be distilled to develop a trac- table and useful ADM. From fundamental principles, laboratory data or photochemistry and kinetics, laboratory simulations of com- plex systems and field data, we can explain the essence of acid generation. These shortened lists of species and processes (elementary reactions when possible) will re- quire further testing, such as zero- dimensional sensitivity calculations. In some cases, such as gas-phase species (i.e., hydrocarbons), the representative categories have been ground in AQM research previously, so only refinements will be needed for ADM development. In cases such as for solution-phase chemistry, achieving conciseness in the reaction list while still simulating the essential features and rateg of reactions has not been accomplished, partly because the role of in-cloud chemistry in generating acids has been appreciated only recently. Certain clear indications of how to proceed in ADM development do appear in the course of our review. For example, because all gas-phase processes that lead to S02 oxi- dation are initiated by the gas-phase OH radical (in daylight, of course), the minimal reaction set for ADM most embody the ma- jor processes that control OH concentra- tions. Similarly, because of its role in NOX chemistry and because it is a major source ------- of OH, tropospheric O3 must be calculated accurately. In the liquid phase, it will be necessary to simulate behavior of 03, H202, OH, H02, N03, and probably 02- and N205. Fortunately, the fundamental data necessary in ADM development are forthcoming or are largely available already. Acid Deposition Model Development and Testing Many of the issues that can arise in the design of a comprehensive model, i.e., one which includes coupled meteorology and chemistry, are discussed. The key meteorological and chemical processes that are identified earlier are stated more con- cisely, and certain other phenomena and practical considerations are introduced into the discussion. For example, the apparent importance of dry deposition of acidic gases and particles, the available methods for its measurement, the controlling physics and chemistry, and how ADM might treat dry deposition are discussed. Questions and facts are introduced concerning surface emissions of pollutants and natural sources of acid precursors and of those species that regulate acid generation. Other general features, components, and questions in ADM development are also reviewed and summarized, including model resolution, subgrid-scale processes and how to begin to treat them, mathematical and numerical techniques for large comprehensive models, special considerations coupling the laws of chemistry and physics, and issues in model validation and sensitivity analysis. This Project Summary was authored by staff of The NCAR Acid Deposition Modeling Project, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307 K. L. Demerjian is the EPA Project Officer (see below). The complete report, entitled "Regional Acid Deposition: Models and Physical Processes, "(Order No. PB84-115997; Cost: $29.50, subject to change) will be available only from: National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield. VA 22161 Telephone: 703-487-4650 The EPA Project Officer can be contacted at: Environmental Sciences Research Laboratory U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 U S GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE, 1984—759-015/7665 United States Environmental Protection Agency Center for Environmental Research Information Cincinnati OH 45268 Official Business Penalty for Private Use $300 £30 UtAHoUKN it. bfKttl ------- |