:PA-600/4-74-002
IJI.Y 1974
                                Environmental Monitoring Series
                         GROUNDWATER:
                                OF
                                    Wflct

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                       RESEARCH REPORTING SERIES
Research reports of the Office of Research and Development, Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, have been grouped into five series.  These five broad categories were
established to facilitate further development and application of environmental tech-
nology.  Elimination of traditional grouping was consciously planned to foster tech-
nology transfer  and a maximum  interface in related fields.  The five series are:

     1.  Environmental Health Effects Research
    2.  Environmental Protection Technology

    3.  Ecological Research
    4.  Environmental Monitoring

    5.  Socioeconomic Environmental Studies.

This report has been assigned  to the ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING series.  This
series describes research conducted to develop new or improved methods and instru-
mentation for the identification and quantification of environmental pollutants at the
lowest conceivably significant concentrations.  It also  includes studies to determine
the ambient concentrations of pollutants in the environment and/or the variance of
pollutants as a function of time or meteorological  factors.

                            EPA REVIEW NOTICE
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Research and Development,  EPA,  and
approved for publication.  Approval  does not signify that the contents necessarily re-
flect the views  and policies of  the Environmental  Protection Agency, nor does men-
tion of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation
for use.

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GE74TMP-17                                            EPA  600/4-74-002
                                                       July 1974
                        POLLUTED GROUNDWATER:
                         ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS
                                   OF
                            MAN'S ACTIVITIES
                                    by

                             John F. Karubian
                          General Electric— TEMPO
                         Center for Advanced Studies
                             P.O. Drawer QQ
                          Santa  Barbara, CA 93102
                          Contract No. 68-01-0759
                               Tasks 1 and 3
                        Program Element No. 1H1325
                              Project Officer

                            Leslie G.  Me Mi 11 ion
             Monitoring Systems Research and Development Laboratory
                    National Environmental Research Center
                            Las Vegas, Nevada


                 OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND  DEVELOPMENT
               U.S.  ENVIRONMENTAL  PROTECTION AGENCY
                        WASHINGTON, D.C. 20460
                         U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                         Region 5, library (PL-12J)
                         77 West Jackson Boulevard. 12tfl floor
                         CMcago,tl 60604-3590

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                                   ABSTRACT
      Data on the quality of the nation's groundwater are sparse and are expensive
to obtain through conventional sampling of water from wells.  A supplementary
approach to monitoring  is to estimate kinds, amounts, and trends of groundwater
pollution by relating them to man's activities.
      Preliminary research on methodology for estimating the polluting effects on
groundwater of man's activities has been carried out for a number of examples:
unlined sedimentation basins and lagoons used by the pulp and paper industry, petro-
leum refining, and primary metals  industries; wastewater ponds in phosphate mining;
agricultural use of chemical fertilizers; and beef cattle feedlot operations. The
methodology relies primarily on readily available census and other statistical data,
together with descriptions of the processes used in the activities examined.  Estimates
are made of past and projected volumes and areas covered by potential pollutants.
Geohydrological  analysis is then applied to estimate the extent to which these po-
tential pollutants may enter the groundwater.
      The results  of the broad preliminary analyses are not definitive, but are
intended only  to illustrate the applicability of the methodology to whatever geo-
graphical areas are of interest.
      This report  was submitted in  partial fulfillment of Tasks 1 and 3 of Contract
68-01-0759, by General Electric—TEMPO under the sponsorship of the Environmental
Protection Agency.  Work was completed as of May  1974.
                                       in

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                            ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
      Valuable assistance was provided in the research reported on in this study by
Mr.  Benjamin Aerenson, Ms. Marilyn Judson and Mrs. Janis Hallowell. Dr. David
K. Todd was involved in the initial formulation of the concept.  Mr. Charles F.
Meyer of GE—TEMPO was the manager of the project under which this study was
conducted.  Mr. Meyer, Dr. Richard M. Tinlin,  and Mr0 William E. Rogers, also of
GE—TEMPO,  provided considerable editorial assistance.  Mr. Donald  B. Gilmore
of EPA was very helpful in obtaining data sources and material.
      The following officials of the Environmental Protection Agency were respon-
sible for administrative and technical guidance of the project:
            Office of Research and Development (Program Area Management)
                  Mr. H.  Matthew Bills
                  Dr. Henry F. Enos
                  Mr. Donald  B.  Gilmore
                  Mr. John D.  Koutsandreas
            NERC—Las Vegas (Program Element Direction)
                  Mr. George B. Morgan
                  Mr. Leslie G.  McMillion
                                      IV

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                           TABLE OF CONTENTS
                                                                      Page
ABSTRACT                                                              iii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS                                                  iv
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS                                                vil
LIST OF TABLES                                                        viii
CONCLUSIONS                                                         xi
SUMMARY                                                            xiii
          Wastewater from Paper, Petroleum and Steel Industries             xiv
          Phosphate Rock Mining Industry                              xxviii
          Agricultural Fertilizer Consumption                             xxix
          Beef Cattle Feedlot Industry                                  xxxiv
SECTION
     1     INTRODUCTION                                               1
              Pollution Sources Analyzed                                   1
              Rationale                                                  3
              Overview of Methodological Approach                         5
    2     PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY                                    16
              Introduction                                               16
              Approach                                                 18
              Regional Pollution Implications                              23
              National Pollution Implications                             27
    3     PETROLEUM REFINING INDUSTRY WASTEWATER                 29
              Introduction                                              29
              Approach                                                30

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CONTENTS

SECTION                                                              Pbge
    3         Wastewater Volume Projections                               32
              Regional Pollution Implications                               38
              National Pollution Implications                               41
              Composition of Effluent                                      42
    4     PRIMARY METALS INDUSTRIES WASTEWATER                     44
              Introduction                                               44
              Approach                                                  45
              Volume Projections                                          48
              Regional Pollution Implications                               54
              National Pollution Implications                               57
              Composition of Effluent                                      57
    5     THE PHOSPHATE ROCK MINING INDUSTRY                      61
              Introduction                                               61
              Method of  Analysis                                          62
              Composition and Concentration of Slime Effluent               66
    6     AGRICULTURAL FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION                     69
              Introduction                                               69
              Composition of Commercial  Fertilizers                         70
              Analytical Approach                                        72
              Regional Consumption of Fertilizers                           76
              National Fertilizer Consumption                              79
    7     BEEF CATTLE FEEDLOT INDUSTRY                               82
              Introduction                                               82
              Approach                                                  85
              Summary of Beef Cattle Activity                              93
REFERENCES                                                             97
                                    VI

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                           LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Figure                                                                    Page
   i       Total  U.So pulp and paper industry wastewater treatment
          volumes and acreage covered, 1954—1983.                        xvii
  ii       Total  UoS. petroleum refining industry wastewater treatment
          volumes and acreage covered, 1954—1983.                        xxi
  iii       Total  U.S. primary metals industries wastewater treatment
          volumes and acreage covered, 1954—1983.                        xxv
  iv       Polk County, Florida phosphate slime generation, 1966—1983.      xxx
   v       Application of fertilizer in the United States to fertilized
          harvested  croplands, 1954—1985.                                xxxii
  vi       U.S.  beef cattle marketed, average feedlot population, and
          waste  deposit tonnage and acreage,  1962-1983.                xxxvii
   1       Industrial  water use regions.                                         7
   2       Geographic distribution of steel mills in the United States.           45
   3       Location map of Noralyn  operations„                               63
   4       Fertilizer-consuming regions of the United States.                   70
   5       Cattle feeding regions.                                            84
   6       Cattle feeding areas.                                              95
                                     VII

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                                LIST OF TABLES
Table                                                                     Page
  !        Pulp and paper industry primary and secondary waste water
          Treatment, 1954-1983.                                            xix
  ii       Petroleum refining industry primary and secondary wastewater
          treatment, 1954-1983.                                           xxii
 iii       Primary metals industries primary and secondary wastewater
          treatment, 1954-1983.                                          xxvii
  iv       Agricultural fertilizer  consumption, fertilized harvested
          acreage, and  per-acre application rates for the three leading
          fertilizer consumption  regions and the United States,  1954—1983.  xxxiii
  v       Fed beef cattle production,  feed lot acreage, and waste
          deposits of the three leading feedlot regions, 1962—1983.        xxxvii
  1       Total wastewater discharged by the pulp and paper industry in
          15 Industrial Water Use Regions, 1954-1983, and total treated
          before discharge,  1964 and  1968 (billions of gallons).               19
  2       Estimated percentages  of pulp and  paper industry total waste-
          water discharged receiving primary treatment and estimated
          percentages of primary treatment achieved in unlined sedi-
          mentation basins,  1954-1983.                                     21
  3       Estimated percentages  of total wastewater discharged receiving
          secondary treatment in lagoons in the pulp and paper  industry,
          1954-1983.                                                      22
  4       Volume and area of wastewater in  pulp  and paper industry in
          unlined sedimentation  basins,  1954—1983.                         24
  5       Volume and area of wastewater in  pulp  and paper industry
          lagoons, 1954-1983.                                             25
  6       Volume of pulp and paper industry wastewater discharged,
          volume treated before  discharge, and area covered by treatment
          process,  1954-1983.                                             28
  7       Total wastewater volume discharged annually by the  petroleum
          refining  industry,  1954—1983, and wastewater treated before
          discharge, 1964 and 1968 (billions of gallons).                     33
                                      VIII

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                                                                  LIST OF TABLES


Table                                                                     Page
   8      Percentages of total wastewater receiving primary treatment
          and estimated percentages of primary treatment achieved in
          unlined sedimentation basins  in the petroleum refining industry,
          1954-1983.                                                      35
   9      Volume and acreage of wastewater in unlined sedimentation
          basins in the petroleum refining industry,  1954—1983.               36
  10      Estimated percentages of total wastewater discharged receiv-
          ing treatment in lagoons  in the petroleum refining industry,
          1954-1983.                                                      37
  11      Volume and acreage of wastewater in the petroleum refining
          industry,  1954-1983.                                             39
  12      U.S.  petroleum  refining  industry wastewater volume discharged,
          volume treated before discharge,  and area covered by treatment
          processes,  1954-1983.                                            41
  13      Total  wastewater discharged by the primary metals industries,
          1954-1983, and wastewater treated before discharge, 1964
          and 1968 (billions of gallons).                                     47
  14      Percentages of total discharged primary metals industries waste-
          water receiving  primary treatment and estimated percentages of
          primary treatment in unlined  sedimentation basins, 1954-1983.      50
  15      Volume of wastewater (billions of gallons) receiving primary
          treatment in unlined sedimentation basins in the primary metals
          industries and acreage covered,  1954—1983.                        51
  16      Estimated percentages of treatable wastewater discharged re-
          ceiving secondary treatment in lagoons in the primary metals
          industries, 1954-1983.                                            53
  17      Volume and acreage of wastewater in lagoons in the primary
          metals industries,  1954-1983.                                     55
  18      U.S.  primary metals industries wastewater discharged, volume
          treated before discharge, and area covered by treatment process,
          1954-1983.                                                      58
  19      Wastewater pollutants from iron and steel  industry processes.         59
  20      Average pollutant concentrations in steel  industry sedimentation
          basin  and lagoon effluents (pounds per gallon).                      60
  21      Phosphate rock slime ponds at the Noralyn operation,  Bonnie,
          Polk County,  Florida and Polk Count,  Florida phosphate
          plants (1967).                                                    62
                                      IX

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LIST OF TABLES
Table                                                                     Page
 22       Volume of production output, volume of slime production, and
          area covered by slime ponds in the phosphate rock industry,
          Polk County, Florida and the United States,  1966-1983.            65
 23       Approximate mineralogic and chemical composition of phosphate
          slime solids.                                                      68
 24       Types and amounts of fertilizer consumed in the United States,
          FY1969 and FY1970, and in regions,  FY1970 (thousands of tons).     71
 25       Fertilized harvested  cropland acreage in the  United States,
          by region, 1954—1983 (thousands of acres).                         74

 26       U.S. cropland acreage harvested and cropland acreage idle or
          in cover crops, 1954—1983 (thousands of acres).                     75
 27       Ratios of fertilized harvested cropland acreage to total harvested
          cropland acreage by region,  1954—1985.                           76

 28       Fertilizer consumption in the United  States by region, 1954—1985
          (thousands of tons).                                               77
 29       Fertilizer application per fertilized cropland  acre,  1954-1985
          (tons).                                                           78
 30       U.S. consumption of fertilizer, total  harvested cropland acreage,
          fertilized harvested cropland acreage, and intensity of fertilizer
          application,  1954-1985.                                          81

 31       Cattle waste characteristics in terms  of 1000 pounds live weight.     85
 32       Number of fed cattle marketed in the United  States, by region,
          1962-1983 (thousands).                                           88
 33       Amount of beef cattle manure deposited on feedlots in the United
          States,  by region, 1962-1983 (thousands of tons).                  89
 34       Average number of beef cattle on feedlots in  the  United States,
          by region, 1962-1983 (thousands).                                 90
 35       Area of beef cattle feedlots in the United  States,  by region,
          1962-1983 (thousands of acres).                                    92
 36       Number of beef cattle,  feed lot populations, amount of waste
          deposits,  and area covered by feedlots in the United States,
          1962-1983.                                                      94

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                              CONCLUSIONS
(1)   Estimating actual and potential groundwater pollution by analyzing
man's activities is not only feasible,  but appears to be a valuable supple-
ment or even an alternative to the conventional approach of depending
upon samples from water wells to monitor groundwater pollution.  Trends
in groundwater  pollution may be more easily deduced,  and future pollu-
tion predicted with greater confidence, by analysis of man's activities
than by extrapolating data from water-well sampling.
(2)   The methodology described is readily  applicable to all geographical
areas for which the necessary data are available.  The reliability of
estimates of groundwater pollution increases when small areas  are ana-
lyzed, because  of geological homogeneity and greater precision of data.
However, as  demonstrated in this study, the approach can provide a quick
and useful synoptic estimate of the geographic incidence of pollution
from a  particular activity; the relation of pollution to population distribu-
tion or  to aquifers  can be thus examined.
(3)   The analysis of man's activities should be carried out only to the
precision justified  by hydrogeologic knowledge of the area in question
(eg,  if infiltration rates must be estimated,  they can vary by an order of
magnitude; if such  uncertainties exist,  they make the results of the
analyses relatively insensitive to the  assumptions concerning man's activi-
ties  and processes).
(4)   The coincidence of various  pollution sources and the potential for
polluting groundwater in a given geographic area can be surveyed rapidly
to assess the potential buildup of pollution from a number of activities.
                                   XI

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CONCLUSIONS








(5)    For a particular activity, the approach can be used to assess the



relative importance of various processes that may pollute groundwater.



For example, the volumes of effluent treated by the  pulp and paper in-



dustry in unlined sedimentation basins  and  in lagoons are of the same



order of magnitude but,  because of differences in the processes, the po-



tential for  groundwater pollution from unlined sedimentation basins is



minuscule  compared to that from lagoons.





(6)    Proposed regulations or controls on pollution may be evaluated by



analyzing the effect of different processes with respect to groundwater



pollution.  Such analyses may help to evaluate the effects of imposing



"best practicable" and "best available" treatment processes on various



time scales, perhaps for comparison to socioeconomic costs associated



with different regulations.
                                  XII

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                                SUMMARY
      On the basis that information describing groundwater pollution is
sparse, research was undertaken to investigate the feasibility of "moni-
toring" groundwater quality by analyzing man's activities which may
pollute groundwater.   This approach to monitoring may appear to be less
direct than the conventional practice of taking samples from wells and
performing biochemical analyses.  However, samples from a well
represent water quality only in the  immediate vicinity of the well, and
may fail to reveal the existence of severe pollution only a few tens or
hundreds of feet away in the aquifer.  Therefore, the methodology de-
scribed here may be more complete and no less direct than that of
water-well sampling.
      The  results of this brief study do not provide a picture of the quality
of the nation's groundwater; it is to be emphasized that this was not the
objective of the study.  The results of the study are neither comprehen-
sive nor conclusive.  Rather,  the study demonstrated the feasibility of
the approach through actually  searching out data and applying them
methodically to selected examples of man's activities that may cause
groundwater pollution.   If the  methodology is to be applied to other
sources and kinds of pollutants to formulate  specific descriptions of the
probable present and future state of groundwater pollution, the need for
further refinement and extension of the work is clear
      Six exemplar industrial  and agricultural activities were chosen for
methodology development and  analysis of potential impact on groundwater
quality:
                                 XIII

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SUMMARY
      1.   Pulp and paper manufacturing
      2.   Petroleum refining
      3.   Primary metals (steel) manufacturing
      4.   Phosphate mining
      5.   Agricultural fertilizer consumption
      6.   Beef cattle feedlots.
      The first three of these activities are heavy users of water, ac-
counting for about half  of the total  industrial water use in the United
States (excluding hydroelectric power plants).  The water  is used both
for cooling and for manufacturing  subprocesses, with the subprocesses
resulting in contamination requiring treatment before the wastewater
can be released as surface runoff.  Ironically, the increasingly strin-
gent requirements for treatment of this wastewater before  release into
surface streams  has resulted in a  serious  threat to groundwater  quality
since much of this treatment takes place in unlined basins for sedi-
mentation and lagoons for biological treatment.
      Phosphate  mining also uses  large amounts of water which becomes
contaminated in the  mining process.  Current practice is to contain the
waterborne mining byproducts ("slime") in open, unlined earthen pits
for sedimentation.
      Fertilizers applied to farmlands pose a threat to groundwater if
they leach through the soil into underlying  aquifers.  Wastes from beef
cattle feedlots may stand in holding basins or run off into surface
streams, from which they may infiltrate downward into aquifers.
WASTEWATER FROM PAPER,  PETROLEUM,
AND STEEL INDUSTRIES
      Assessment of the groundwater pollution potential arising from
pulp and paper manufacturing,  petroleum refining, and steel manufactur-
ing was carried out on  the basis of water used by these industries in each
of 1 8 Industrial Water Use Regions as defined by the  U.S.  Bureau of the
                                 XIV

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                                              PAPER, PETROLEUM, STEEL

Census,  using  1964 and 1968 Census of Manufactures data as a base-
line and  projecting back in time to 1954 and ahead to 1983.   The regional
data for  1964 and 1968 included not only total water discharged, but
wastewater given primary treatment (settling out of solids  only) in un-
lined  sedimentation basins and wastewater  given secondary treatment
(reduction of biological oxygen demand) in lagoons.
      Regional data were  not available for these industries for 1954 and
1959, but only  national totals.   Neither were  data available on type of
wastewater treatment, but only in total amount treated.  Thus, it was
assumed for the analysis  that regional use  distribution in previous  years
was approximately the same as that for 1964, and assumptions were also
made regarding the relative amount of primary and secondary treatment
to take into account increasingly stringent treatment requirements  and
increased treatment sophistication over the 1954-1968 period.
      The 1969-1983 total water usage and  primary and secondary waste-
water treatment rates for these three industries were derived from
industry growth rate projections by the University of Maryland's  Bureau
of Business and Economic Research, the expected impact of FWPCA
and EPA pollution control requirements,  and anticipated improvements in
treatment technology.
      Based upon average residence times  for primary (separation of
suspended solids) and secondary (biologic stabilization) treatment of
wastewater and average depths of basins  and lagoons, the volumes  and
acreages required for primary treatment basins and secondary treatment
lagoons were calculated for each industry.  This, coupled with the
seepage  rate of the basins and  lagoons, which was estimated to average
30 inches per year, or about 2. 5 acre-feet  per  acre of basin and  lagoon,
yields a  rough  idea of their  potential for contaminating underlying aqui-
fers.  (In specific situations, the  actual seepage rates may vary by at
least  an  order  of magnitude from  the average that was used. )
                                 xv

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SUMMARY

      The pollution potential of primary treatment in unlined sedimenta-
tion basins  appears to be minuscule compared with that of secondary
treatment in lagoons for all three industries.  The chief reason is that
primary treatment in unlined basins is  much less prevalent than is
secondary treatment in  lagoons, and treatment times required for
lagooning are much greater than those for sedimentation.  Sedimentation
treatment of wastewater can ordinarily be completed in less than one
working day; thus, only sufficient capacity for one day's output of
treatable wastewater is required.   In contrast,  secondary treatment may
require capacities of up to a month's wastewater output in order to com-
plete treatment, and the lagoons must be much shallower than sedimenta-
tion basins  in order to allow sufficient aeration for the reduction of
biological oxygen demand (BOD) before the wastewater is released.  It
follows that secondary treatment of a given amount of wastewater may
require up  to 60 times more area than does primary treatment.  The
amount of seepage, of course,  is directly proportional to the area
covered.
       Detailed descriptions of the methodology followed for pulp and
paper, petroleum refining, and steel manufacturing wastewaters are
given in Sections 2, 3,  and 4,  as are descriptions of their constituent
pollutants.  Some summary results follow.
Pulp and Paper Industry
       Of the three wastewater cases examined,  the pulp and paper in-
dustry was projected to have the largest volume of wastewater requiring
secondary  lagoon treatment through 1983 (see Figure i).  From 1954
through 1968 and as projected through 1973, the curves of national figures
for volume of water treated and the lagoon acreage required are con-
gruent.  Thereafter, increased volumes of wastewater per acre of lagoon
have been projected due to anticipated adoption  of technological improve-
 ments in secondary treatment.  These improvements may take the form
                                   XVI

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   1,200
   1,100
   1,000
     900
     800
     700
     600
 Q


 1   500
     400
     300
     200
     100
                  I
               I
TOTAL WASTEWATER DISCHARGED

(billions of gallons)

1954:  1,620

1968:  2,078

1983:  4,056
                        VOLUME OF WASTEWATER

                        RECEIVING SECONDARY
                        TREATMENT  IN LAGOONS
                           UNLINED BASIN AND •
                           LAGOON ACREAGES
                                                  PULP AND PAPER



                                                          2,400
                                VOLUME OF WASTEWATER_
                                RECEIVING  PRIMARY
                                TREATMENT  IN UNLINED
                                BASINS
                  I           I          I           I
                                              I        I
                                            2,200
                                                          2,000
                                                          1,800
                                                          1,600
                                                          1,400
                                                                _i
                                                                _i
                                                                <
                                                                O

                                                          1,200  O
                                                                u->
                                                                z
                                                                g
                                                                _i

                                                          1,000  3
                                                                       800
                                            600
                                                                       400
                                                          200
      1954
   1959
1964
1969

YEAR
1974
1979     1983
Figure F.   Total U.S. pulp  and paper  industry wastewater treatment volumes

           and  acreage covered,  1954-1983.
                                     XVII

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SUMMARY

of lagoon aeration, allowing greater depth and shorter wastewater de-
tention times, lining of lagoons to prevent seepage, or substitution of
a different process for lagoon treatment in order to meet EPA require-
ments.   Despite anticipated industry growth of more than 2 percent per
year during the latter  part of the projection period, both wastewater
lagooned and lagoon acreage show a decline beginning in the late 1970s.
      The major potential groundwater contaminants in the pulp and
paper effluent are lignins,  wood sugars,  sulfates, sulfites,  calcium
compounds, grease, and color.
      Based on treatment figures for 1954 — 1968,  primary sedimentation
treatment in unlined basins was projected to increase through 1973, but
thereafter to decline because of the adoption of more advanced sedimen-
tation processes to satisfy EPA water treatment regulations.  The acre-
age of unlined sedimentation basins is not shown separately in Figure i
because  of the relatively insignificant area they occupy—50 acres in 1954,
rising to a projected peak of 190 acres in 1973, and declining to 60 acres
in 1983.
      Census data and regional projections for this industry show the
Southeast,  Pacific Northwest,  and  New England regions to have the great-
est groundwater pollution potential from primary and secondary wastewater
treatment.  Their treatment volumes, areal coverage, and fractions  of
the national total are given in Table i.
      Based on the seepage rate assumed for this study of 30 inches per
year for unlined sedimentation basins  and lagoons, the Southeast region
•would have subsurface infiltration of 34,000 acre-feet in 1968 and 75,000
acre-feet in  1983, or about 40  to 50 percent of the national total.  In  terms
of regional density of treatment acreage, however, the New England  re-
gion exceeds the Southeast region for the later years of the projection:
it has one-fourth as much treatment acreage, but considerably less than
one-fourth as much geographic area.
                               XVIII

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                                                              PETROLEUM
              Table i.  Pulp and paper industry primary and secondary
                      wastewater treatment, 1954-1983.
Region
Southeast
Billions of gallons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Hundreds of acres
and fraction of
national total (%)
Pacific Northwest
Billions of gallons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Hundreds of acres
and fraction of
national total (%)
New England
Billions of gallons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Hundreds of acres
and fraction of
national total (%)
United States
Billions of gallons
Hundreds of acres
1954
1 14(67)
23(51)
13(8)
4(9)
<1(.6)
0.3(.6)
170
45
1964
296(62)
87(54)
52(11)
13(8)
2(.4)
1(.6)
481
160
1968
429(63)
136(56)
66(10)
17(7)
2(.3)
K.4)
678
241
1973
693(51)
245(38)
187(14)
63(9)
66(5)
34(5)
1,347
726
1977
751(36)
333(44)
363(17)
95(13)
248(12)
76(10)
2,075
753
1983
647(37)
300(41)
334(19)
93(13)
244(14)
75(10)
1,763
731
Petroleum Refining Industry

      The main petroleum refinery wastewater constituents of conse-

quence to groundwater quality are oil,  ammonia, suspended solids,

phenols, spent caustics, and sulfides .  Overall,  this industry uses a

volume of water in its processes comparable to that used by the pulp and

paper industry.  However, approximately 25 percent of the industry's
                                  XIX

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SUMMARY

water intake is solely for cooling purposes,  of which increasing amounts
are being recirculated:  from 1954 to 1964 production output increased
approximately 48 percent, while water intake increased by 13 percent.
      Figure ii shows national petroleum refining industry wastewater
treatment volumes and  acreages of lagoons for  1954-1968 as  obtained
from census data.  The values shown for 1968-1983 are projections
based on a 2 percent per year  growth rate of wastewater discharged.
As projected, the volume and acreage of wastewater lagooned peaks in
1977, the year when industry must meet the EPA's requirement for
use of the "best practicable technology" for wastewater treatment.   The
decline in treatment by lagooning beyond 1977 is based on the  assump-
tion that the petroleum refining industry will have begun by then to
adopt alternative methods for secondary wastewater treatment in order
to meet the more  stringent EPA 1983 requirement for use of the "best
available technology. "
      Unlike the pulp and paper and steel wastewater projection, the
ratio of lagoon acreage to treatment volume remains constant for the
petroleum refining wastewater projection.  This is because no credit was
given for expected technological advances in lagooning as it was in the
other two industries .
      Figure ii shows a decline in  primary sedimentation treatment in
unlined basins from 1964-1983.  The decline reflects increased usage
of other,  more technologically advanced means of treatment,  such as
mechanical separators.  The area covered by unlined sedimentation
basins is not shown in the figure as it is so small as to be insignificant
if plotted (about 2 percent of the lagoon acreage in 1964 and about 0. 3
percent in 1983).
      The largest past  and projected processors of petroleum refinery
wastewater are the Delaware and Hudson, Western Great Lakes, and
                                  xx

-------
                                                                    PETROLEUM
    1,200
     1,100
     1,000
      900
      800
   «/>  700
  
-------
SUMMARY
Western Gulf regions.  Their treatment volumes,  area coverage, and

fractions of the national total are given in Table ii.

           Table ii. Petroleum refining industry primary and secondary
                   wastewater treatment,  1954-1983.
Region
Delaware & Hudson
Billions of gallons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Hundreds of acres
and fraction of
national total (%)
Western Great Lakes
Billions of gallons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Hundreds of acres
and fraction of
national total (%)
Western Gulf
Billions of gallons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Hundreds of acres
and fraction of
national total (%)
United States
Billions of gallons
Hundreds of acres
1954
96(26)
14(30)
31(8)
2(4)
112(30)
14(30)
368
47
1964
200(26)
40(28)
65(9)
13(9)
242(32)
47(33)
762
144
1968
198(28)
48(27)
44(6)
8(5)
239(34)
77(44)
705
176
1973
251(27)
77(25)
89(10)
27(9)
292(31)
91(30)
929
305
1977
290(25)
109(24)
130(11)
48(11)
328(28)
123(27)
1,174
448
1983
269(26)
110(26)
120(12)
49(12)
285(28)
115(27)
1,023
420
       The two largest processors, the Western Gulf and the Delaware

 and Hudson regions,  are projected to process nearly identical amounts

 wastewater by 1983.  The fourth largest region, the California region,
of
                                   XXII

-------
                                                           PETROLEUM

not shown in Table ii, is projected to process nearly as much wastewater
by 1983 (98 billion gallons) as the third largest, the  Western Great Lakes
region.
      The Western Gulf and Delaware and Hudson regions treat the
largest volumes of wastewater throughout the 1954-1983 period.  The
Western Gulf in 1954 accounted for  30 percent of the national volume of
petroleum refinery wastewater treated in unlined sedimentation basins
and the Delaware  and Hudson 24 percent,  and these  regions show frac-
tions of 30 and 26 percent,  respectively, for 1983.   Total volume treated
by unlined sedimentation peaks at 11 5 billion gallons in 1973 for the
Western Gulf region and at 102 billion gallons in 1973 for the Delaware
and Hudson region.  The respective fractions of water lagooned in 1983
are about 27 percent  and 26 percent of the national total for these two
regions, with the  Western Gulf region ranging from  29 billion gallons in
1954 to 225 billion gallons in 1983.  The 29-year total for the Western
Gulf region amounts to more than 4, 000 billion gallons with the Delaware
and Hudson region only slightly less.
      Although the regional figures do not show concentrations  of unlined
basins and lagoons, it is perhaps noteworthy that the Delaware and Hud-
son region, which lagoons a quarter of the nation's petroleum refining
industry wastewater,  is also one of the smallest industrial water use
regions in the country. At the projected rate of growth in lagooning,
during the 1977 period this  region will contain 10, 800 acres—about 17
square miles—of lagoons.   Based on the lagoon seepage rate of 30 inches
per year assumed in this  study, the potential exists  for 27, 000 acre-feet
per year of polluted water to seep underground in this region alone.
      At the projected nationwide rates of industry growth and the  as-
sumed seepage rate for lagoons, by 1977 more than  111,000 acre-feet
per year of effluent might seep into  the ground.  It must be  emphasized,
however,  that the projections cited here are not forecasts, but serve only
                                XXIII

-------
 SUMMARY

to demonstrate a methodology for the estimation of potential ground-
water impacts.

Primary Metals Industries Wastewater
      About 25 to  30 percent of the water used by the primary metals
industries  requires treatment for removal of pollutants, with the rest
being used only for cooling purposes.  In 1968,  for example, only 1,430
billion gallons of wastewater  underwent primary and/or secondary treat-
ment although 4,692 billion gallons were discharged.
      The major pollutants from this industry that potentially affect
groundwater quality are suspended and dissolved solids, iron,  ammonia,
cyanide, phenol, oil, and the heavy metals —arsenic, cadmium,  chro-
mium, lead, and zinc.   The latter are especially hazardous to human
health.
      Figure iii summarizes  volumes of wastewater treatment in the
primary metals industry from 1954 to 1968 as determined from census
data and projected treatment  from 1969 to  1983  based on assumptions
and estimates of industry growth and treatment  practices, technological
change,  and compliance with  Federal treatment regulations.
      As with the pulp and paper and petroleum  refining industries, pri-
mary metals industry wastewater sedimentation treatment in unlined
basins and biological treatment in lagoons  is expected to peak in the late
 1970s to meet the initial EPA treatment requirements, and then decline
 subsequently as more technologically advanced alternative treatment
methods are adopted.
      The lagoon acreage projections of Figure  iii reflect a 50 percent
 excess  capacity over volume  of wastewater treated through 1975, when
 the ratio begins to change. This is accounted for by adoption of expected
 technological improvements in lagooning which will  allow deeper lagoons
 and shorter wastewater detention periods,  thereby decreasing acreage
 requirements for treatment of a given volume of wastewater.
                                  XXIV

-------
                                                              PRIMARY METALS
   1,200
   1,100
   1,000
     900
     800
     700
     600
 Q
 z
 I   500
     400
     300
     200
     100
                  1          I
TOTAL WASTEWATER DISCHARGED
(billions of gallons)

1954:  3,682
1968-  4,692
1985:  7,568
                                   T         I
       ACREAGE COVERED BY
       LAGOONS  AND  UNLINED
       BASINS
  VOLUME OF  PRIMARY
  TREATMENT IN UNLINED
  BASINS
                                           VOLUME OF SECONDARY
                                           TREATMENT IN LAGOONS
                                                         2,400
                                                          2,200
                       2,000
                                                         1,800
                       1,600
                                                         1,400   Z
                                                                O
                                                                             O
                                                         1,200
                              Z
                              g
                       1,000   ^
                                                                      800
                                                         600
                                                         400
                                                                      200
      1954       1959       1964
                        1969

                        YEAR
1974       1979     1983
Figure Mi.   Total  U.S.  primary  metals  industries wastewater treatment volumes
             and acreage covered, 1954-1983.
                                    xxv

-------
SUMMARY

      Primary metals production —about 90 percent of which is steel-
is  concentrated around the Great Lakes and on the Eastern Seaboard.
The regions with the greatest volumes and acreage of wastewater under-
going unlined sedimentation and lagooning are the Eastern Great Lakes,
Ohio River, and the Western Great Lakes.  These three areas, listed
in  Table iii, have treated, and are projected to continue to treat, the
largest volumes of wastewater and to have the  greatest acreage in use
for wastewater treatment.  Together they account for about 75  percent
of  the industry's wastewater treatment from 1954-1983.

      The largest of the three regions in terms of wastewater  receiving
primary and/or secondary treatment is the Western Great  Lakes region.
This region is projected to incur a peak wasteload for unlined  basin and
lagoon treatment by 1977, processing 840 billion gallons of wastewater,
in  basins and lagoons  covering 28,000 acres.*  The next largest, the
Ohio River region,  also peaks in 1977 at 21, 400 acres of basins and
lagoons processing 640 billion gallons of wastewater in the same year.
During the late 1970s, the fractions  of the national total of  primary
metal industries unlined basins  and lagoons for these three regions are:
Western Great Lakes, 35  percent; Ohio River,  27 percent; and Eastern
Great  Lakes,  16 percent.   From 1954 to  1973,  the Western Great Lakes
region is projected to have a 33-fold  increase in basin and  lagoon
acreage, from 900  acres  to 29,400 acres.  All the other primary metals
industries regions exhibit substantial increases in acreage as  well.
      Assuming infiltration levels for unlined basins and lagoons of 30
inches per year,  the Western Great Lakes region has in 1973 a ground-
water pollution potential of about 75, 000 acre-feet of wastewater seepage
from its unlined basins and lagoons.  In the same year,  the Ohio River
region has an infiltration  potential of nearly 55, 000 acre-feet of waste-
water and the Eastern Great Lakes region 32, 000 acre-feet.
*Acreage of basins and lagoons,  however, is greater (29,400 acres) in
 1973.  Expected technological improvements over the 1973-1977 period
 account for the difference.
                                 xxvi

-------
                                                          PRIMARY METALS
           Table Mi.  Primary metals industries primary and secondary
                     wastewater treatment, 1954-1983.
Region
Eastern Great Lakes
Billions of gallons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Hundreds of acres
and fraction of
national total (%)
Ohio River
Billions of gallons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Hundreds of acres
and fraction of
national total (%)
Western Great Lakes
Billions of gallons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Hundred of acres
and fraction of
national total (%)
United States
Billions of gallons
Hundreds of acres
1954
42(19)
6(17)
54(25)
6(17)
63(29)
9(25)
220
36
1964
191(20)
33(19)
181(19)
17(10)
65(7)
41(24)
938
174
1968
171(14)
35(13)
258(21)
41(15)
440(36)
89(32)
1,203
274
1973
306(15)
120(16)
513(26)
202(26)
735(37)
294(38)
1,980
770
1977
383(16)
128(16)
640(27)
214(27)
840(35)
280(35)
2,409
799
1983
259(16)
62(16)
434(26)
104(26)
572(34)
136(34)
1,663
398
      At the projected volumes and acreages of unlined basin and lagoon

wastewater treatment,  over the 29-year projection period the Western

Great Lakes  region,  which covers about 2 percent of the continental

United States  land area, could absorb more than 1 million acre-feet of

wastewater through subsurface infiltration.  Given the assumed industry

growth rates, treatment practices, industry distribution, and infiltration

rates,  over the 29-year projection period the three areas taken together
                                XXVII

-------
SUMMARY

are subject to wastewater subsurface infiltration of up to 2. 25 million
acre-feet with its attendant long-term groundwater pollution implications.
PHOSPHATE ROCK  MINING INDUSTRY
      The approach used for the phosphate mining industry departs from
that employed for the other three wastewater-producing industries
examined. The analysis is more specific because it is concerned with a
single wastewater-treatment practice in a limited area and thus more
detailed data were available.  Slime ponds are the treatment process and
the area is the western part of Polk County, Central Florida, where
about 65 percent of the U.S. phosphate rock production originates.
      Phosphate rock is mined by blasting the phosphate matrix with
hydraulic guns to break it up.  Through the use of more water the phos-
phate is separated from the clay, sand tailings,  and other soil compo-
nents.  The waste products from the matrix, coupled with the water
used to break it up and to separate the phosphate, form a waste slime
which is settled in slime ponds.  These are of two types—"active" and
"inactive." Active ponds receive slimy wastewaters  and desedimented
water is extracted from them for reuse.  The disposal of slime is the
only function of the inactive ponds,  which do not dry up,  and the waste-
water is simply allowed to  remain in them, resulting in a buildup of
sedimentation.  The slime  enters the ponds at a solids concentration
of 4 to 5 percent and quickly settles to 1 0 to 15 percent.  Further con-
centration, even after years of settling,  never exceeds 25 to 35 percent
solids.  The suspended  solids  content of wastewater in slime ponds,  as
well as the mineralogic and chemical composition of these solids— pri-
marily oxides of phosphorus, iron, aluminum, calcium, and magnesium
— are groundwater pollutants.
       The infiltration rate of slime wastewater ponds into underlying
groundwater aquifers  is assumed to be the same as that described for the
other  industries' sedimentation basins and lagoons:  30 inches  per year.
                                  XXVIII

-------
                                                            PHOSPHATE

The annual projected growth rate for the phosphate mining industry is
estimated to be 5 percent (see Figure iv) with a commensurate yearly
increase in slime production.  On this basis,  Polk County is presently
subject to underground infiltration of  64,000 acre-feet of water per year
from its slime ponds.  At the projected rate of industry growth, the
infiltration in Polk County alone could approximate 100, 000 acre-feet
per year by  1983.  On a national basis, the infiltration may approach
150,000 acre-feet per year by 1983, with about 75 percent of this occur-
ring in Polk County and other parts of Florida,  assuming that the geo-
graphic distribution of industry production does not change greatly.
      Details of the analytical approach and the data used in  projecting
phosphate rock mining production and its waste products are given in Sec-
tion 5.
AGRICULTURAL FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION
      The assessment of agricultural fertilizer consumption was based
largely on U.S. Department of Agriculture statistics compiled for nine
fertilizer-consuming regions in the Continental United States as defined
by the U.S.  Bureau of the Census, as well as  on Bureau of the Census
agricultural statistics.
      Determining historical consumption of fertilizer by region was a
relatively straightforward process; all historical data (1954-1970) were
taken from USDA's Agricultural Statistics.  The projected consumption
for the years 1971  through 1985 employs the University of Maryland's
Bureau of Business and Economic Research estimates of fertilizer growth
rates and assumes that the 1970 regional proportions of consumption will
remain stable through  1985.
      Since the fertilizer-consuming regions vary greatly in size and
amount of fertilized cropland acreage (as distinct from total harvested
cropland acreage), it was necessary as part of the analysis to determine
the past and future fertilized acreage in each  region to derive trends in
                                 xxix

-------
SUMMARY
    600
    500
    400
 
-------
                                                           FERTILIZERS

amount of fertilizer application per acre.  The regional figures for
1954-1964 fertilized acreage were taken directly from Bureau of Census
statistics.   Only the national figures were available for 1969 and 1970,
so these were prorated among the regions by using the regional distri-
bution percentages for 1964.
      Data for  1971 and succeeding years were not available.  Total har-
vested cropland acreage was projected at 5-year increments for 1975,
1980, and 1985.  The projection assumed that essentially all of the
acreage in idle cropland in 1964-1969 will be put to use as harvested
cropland by 1975.  This assumption was based on population growth
coupled with policies aimed at increasing food output.
      The ratio of fertilized to unfertilized harvested cropland acreage
in the nine regions for 1969-1970 was used to  estimate the acreage in
each region that would be under fertilization for the years 1975-1985,
based on the assumption that any cropland which  would benefit from
fertilization would already have been under  fertilization by 1969-1970.
      The analysis indicates that nationally, annual fertilizer consump-
tion increased  1. 8 times from 22 million tons  in  1954 to 40 million tons in
1970.  A similar margin of growth is  expected between 1970 and 1985,
when application of 74 million tons is  anticipated.  Since little increase
is projected in fertilized harvested cropland acreage, this increase in
consumption corresponds to an increase in application density per ferti-
lized acre as shown in Figure v.
      Figures for the regional amounts  of fertilizer application per
cropland acre were derived by dividing  the past and projected regional
tonnage of fertilizer consumption by the acreage  treated.   The three
largest consumers of fertilizer,  both historically and projected,  are the
South Atlantic, East North  Central, and West North Central regions,
whose consumption figures  and per-acre application rates are given in
Table  iv.  Together these  regions account for about 63  percent of the
                               XXXI

-------
SUMMARY
Q
Z

a.
O
8
Q
>
DC

I
u_
O

z
o
                         TOTAL HARVESTED
                         CROPLAND ACREAGE
      200
                                             FERTILIZED HARVESTED
                                             CROPLAND ACREAGE
      100
                                                                          0.5
                                                                          0.4
                                                                          0.3
                                                                          0.2
                                                                          0.1
        0
        1954   1958    1962    1966   1970   1974    1978    1982    1986

                                       YEAR


      Figure v.  Application of fertilizer in the United States to fertilized harvested

                 croplands,  1954-1985.
                                      XXXII

-------
                                                           FERTILIZERS
Table iv. Agricultural fertilizer consumption, fertilized harvested
          acreage,  and per-acre application rates for the three
          leading fertilizer consumption regions and the United
          States, 1954-1985.
Region
South Atlantic
Millions of tons
and fractions of
national total (%)
Millions of
fertilized acres
Tons applied per
fertilized acre
East North Central
Millions of tons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Millions of
fertilized acres
Tons applied per
fertilized acre
West North Central
Millions of tons
and fraction of
national total (%)
Millions of
fertilized acres
Tons applied per
fertilized acre
United States
Millions of tons
Millions of
fertilized acres
Tons applied per
fertilized acre
1954

6.58
(30)
20.9
0.31

4.52
(20)
31.0
0.15

2.18
(10)
26.4
0.08
22.0
123.0
0.18
1964

7.23
(23)
17.2
0.42

6.13
(20)
33.0
0.19

4.85
(16)
44.1
0.11
30.90
133.0
0.20
1970

7.78
(19)
17.7
0.45

8.76
(21)
33.4
0.26

9.12
(22)
44.7
0.20
40.80
153.0
0.27
1975

9.97
(19)
20.8
0.48

11.23
(21)
39.9
0.28

11.69
(22)
53.3
0.22
52.30
182.5
0.29
1980

12.07
(19)
20.8
0.58

13.60
(21)
39.9
0.34

14.15
(22)
53.3
0.27
63.30
182.5
0.35
1985

14.19
(19)
20.8
0.68

16.00
(22)
39.9
0.40

16.63
(22)
53.3
0.31
74.40
182.5
0.41
                            XXXIII

-------
SUMMARY

national consumption.  Of these, the South Atlantic region is projected to
have the heaviest application rate in 1985 with 0. 68 tons per acre.  Two
other regions not shown in the table, the New England and California re-
gions, have the next heaviest application rates with 0.57 tons per acre
projected for 1985.
      Details of the analytical approach, the data used, and regional
consumption are given in Section 6.  While data are available to compute
consumption by type of fertilizer (principally commercial chemical
mixtures and unmixed nitrogen,  phosphorus,  and potash), this level of
analysis was not attempted in this demonstration of methodology, nor
was any attempt  made to relate density of application to groundwater
pollution potential.
BEEF CATTLE  FEEDLOT INDUSTRY
      The methodological approach  to assessing pollution from beef
cattle feedlots was based on statistics  compiled for eleven cattle feeding
regions  in the continental United States. The available statistics were
compiled by USDA and EPA for yearly cattle feedlot  production from
1962 through 1972.  Growth rates for 1972-1983 feedlot beef production
are those of the University of Maryland's Bureau of Business and
Economic Research.
      Of the constituents present in beef cattle wastes that are possible
groundwater pollutants, nitrogen comprises 3. 1  to 9-8 percent of total
solids, potassium 1. 7 to 3.8 percent,  and  phosphorus 0. 3 to 1.7 percent,
with other constituents occurring in lesser amounts.   The mechanisms
by which these constituents might pollute groundwater are direct infiltra-
tion  of leachates through feedlots and  by rainwater or flushing water from
feedlots that may be caught and held or treated in ponds or lagoons.
      Several estimates and assumptions were used to derive the amount
and concentrations of beef cattle wastes from regional feedlot activities.
                                  xxxiv

-------
                                                            FEEDLOTS

These deal with average weight per head,  average daily amount of
waste produced per head, average length of feedlot residence,  average
feedlot area per head, seasonality of feedlot production,  and regional
distribution of beef cattle production in the United States.
      Historical data concerning average weight per head upon entering
and leaving feedlots  were assumed to remain unchanged for the pro-
jection period of 1971-1983.   The amount of waste per head per day was
derived as an average from several estimates.  Average feedlot area
per head estimates were available for only four  regions, so a conserva-
tive estimate of 200  square feet per head was assumed for the  remain-
ing seven regions.  Based on historical data, seasonality of feedlot
population was assumed to be relatively stable,  and regional distribution
of production was assumed to remain unchanged for the 1971-1983 period.
      Past data and beef production growth rate  forecasts were used to
prepare regional estimates of feedlot acreage and annual amount of waste
deposits for 1962 through 1983.  Figure vi  indicates that by 1983 nation-
wide beef production,  feedlot area,  and animal waste  deposits will be
more than double the 1962 figures.
      The largest producers of fed beef cattle over the 1962-1983 pro-
jection period are the  Corn Belt,  Northern Plains,  and High Plains
regions.   These three regions are projected to account for about 70 per-
cent of the nation's  feedlot beef cattle production from 1971 to  1983,
with concomitant shares of feedlot acreage and manure generation as
shown in Table v. Two of these regions, the Corn Belt region and
Northern Plains region, adjoin each other. Over the  1962-1983 period
they are projected to accumulate more than 0. 8 billion tons of cattle
feedlot wastes, or about one-half the U.S. total, amounting to a regional
concentration about six times that of the rest of the country.
      Details of the study approach are presented in Section 7 along with
a breakdown of the principal constituents  of cattle excreta.  Although
                                 XXXV

-------
SUMMARY
     130
     120
     110
     100
  t   90
  t/>
  o
  Q-
  I— O
  CO ««

  II
    -
  .
  °
      70
    0
  I§
  uj Q 50
  U
  o   40
  3
  Z
      30
      20
      10
       0
       1962
FEEDLOT WASTE
DEPOSIT TONNAGE
                                 CATTLE MARKETED
                                 FROM FEEDLOTS
                      AVERAGE FEEDLOT
                      POPULATION
 1966
1970
   1974

YEAR
1978
                                      1982
           Figure vi.  U.S.  feedlot  beef  cattle marketed,  average feedlot
                       population,  and waste deposit tonnage and acreage,
                       1962-1983.
                                     XXXVI

-------
                                                               FEEDLOTS
sufficient data are available to disaggregate regional feedlot production
into State production,  this was not attempted in the present limited

methodology demonstration, nor was any attempt made to assess the im-
pact of feedlots on groundwater integrity.

         Table v. Fed beef cattle production, feedlot acreage, and waste
                 deposits of the  three leading feedlot regions,  1962-1983.
Region
Corn Belt
Millions of cattle marketed and
fraction of national total (%)
Millions of tons of
waste deposits
Thousands of feedlot acres
Northern Plains
Millions of cattle marketed and
fraction of national total (%)
Millions of tons of
waste deposits
Thousands of feedlot acres
High Plains
Millions of cattle marketed and
fraction of national total (%)
Millions of tons of
waste deposits
Thousands of feedlot acres
United States
Millions of cattle marketed
Millions of tons of
waste deposits
Thousands of feedlot acres
1962
5.23
(35)
15.05
9.99
3.18
(21)
9.17
6.08
1.07
(7)
3.08
2.05
14.96
43.08
27.39
1968
7.28
(32)
20.96
11.54
5.56
(24)
16.02
10.63
2.71
(12)
7.79
5.17
23.04
66.36
42.35
1971
6.64
(26)
19.13
12.69
6.39
(25)
18.39
12.20
4.58
(18)
13.19
8.75
25.70
74.01
47.36
1975
7.42
(26)
21.38
14.20
7.14
(25)
20.55
13.63
5.12
(18)
14.74
9.78
28.72
82.70
52.94
1979
8.23
(26)
23.69
15.79
7.91
(25)
22.77
15.11
5.67
(18)
16.33
10.84
31.82
91.64
58.68
1983
9.04
(26)
26.02
17.27
8.69
(25)
25.01
16.60
6.23
(18)
17.94
11.90
34.96
100.68
64.44
                                 XXXVII

-------
                              SECTION 1
                            INTRODUCTION
POLLUTION SOURCES ANALYZED
      This report describes preliminary research towards the develop-
ment of a methodology for the estimation of kinds, amounts and trends
of groundwater pollution from the activities of man,  and the illustrative
application of this methodology to selected activities which represent
important potential sources of groundwater pollution.  The results of
these analyses consist of estimates—over time —of the volumes and the
areal coverage of potential groundwater pollutants.  Given these estimates,
geohydrological analyses may be employed to infer the extent to which
the activities  considered could contribute to groundwater degradation in
specific  situations.
      The activities for which preliminary analyses were performed are
the pulp  and paper industry, the petroleum refining industry,  the primary
metals industries, phosphate rock mining,  and two major  agricultural
activities,  fertilizer use and cattle feedlots.  Taken together,  these com-
prise a broad spectrum of the types of activities which may affect ground-
water quality, and thus serve to demonstrate the applicability of the ap-
proach to a diversity of activities. Additionally, these activities embrace
examples of point source as well as a  nonpoint source (agricultural fer-
tilizer) of potential groundwater pollution and therefore provide an oppor-
tunity for the use of various appropriate types of geohydrological analyses.
The industrial activities were selected from among the largest users  of
industrial water in the United States because the amount of wastewater to
be disposed of (in ways which may pollute groundwater,  such as lagooning

-------
SECTION 1

or sedimentation ponds) is usually related to the amount of water taken
in for processing operations.  In 1968, chemical manufacturing, primary
metals production, pulp and paper production,  and petroleum refining
accounted for 29 percent,  32 percent, 15 percent, and 9 percent, respec-
tively, of total U.S. industrial water intake, totaling about 85 percent.
Phosphate rock mining falls within the chemicals manufacture area,  and
steel production accounts for about 90 percent of U.S. primary metals
production.  The impact on groundwater quality of the two agricultural
activities, fertilizer use and cattle feedlots, are not keyed to their intake
of water, but rather to the areas they affect and to the intensity of the
activities in these areas.
      Estimates were made of the volumes and areal extent of the possible
groundwater pollutants from each activity, by census regions for the United
States,  except for phosphate rock mining.  This estimate covered only a
small, well-defined area of Florida that accounts  for about 64 percent of
U. S. phosphate rock production.  Although geographically concentrated,
this activity was included as a demonstration of the  approach in an extrac-
tive industry.  The analysis could, of course, be  repeated to treat other
extractive industries concentrated elsewhere.
      The choice of activities analyzed in this report does not imply any
judgment that they are more important than other  potential sources of
groundwater pollution which were not included.  Further,  only tentative
conclusions can be drawn regarding the relative importance among the
activities herein analyzed,  within the context of the  broad regional break-
downs employed in this preliminary study.  The relative importance  of
sources may vary greatly from region to region,  even within a particular
broadly  defined activity. For example, with respect to agriculture as a
broad activity,  in areas of irrigated croplands the principal source of
salt input to the soil —and potentially, the groundwater—is often the irri-
gation water rather than the use of fertilizers which is analyzed in this
study.

-------
                                                        INTRODUCTION


      The value of the approach demonstrated in this  study lies primarily
in its use of easily available data on man's activities  to provide a basis
for inferring groundwater quality.  This is of special importance because
of the long delay—typical of ground-water aquifers—between input of the
pollutant and the recognition of the degradation of the resource.  For
example, pollutants that entered an aquifer,  say in 1955, may not be de-
tected at an extraction point until 1980.  By relating groundwater pollution
to man's activities, both the current and future condition of an aquifer
may be inferred.  The analysis can be performed for any desired geogra-
phic area, recognizing always that the inference may be very approximate
unless small areas are considered in detail.
      However, from a broad point of view, an important use of the re-
sults of the analysis  presented here is that even at an aggregated geogra-
phic level (ie,  region) an inference may be drawn of the geographic areas
which may be most susceptible to groundwater pollution from various
activities.
      In subsequent analyses,  the geographic unit of study could easily
be made States,  or Department of Commerce Business and Economic
Areas.  This would give a rapid and synoptic view of the geographic in-
cidence of potential pollution from various sources of man's  activities.
      It cannot be overemphasized that the aim of this report is to  pre-
sent an approach to relating groundwater pollution to  man's activities.
Numerous assumptions were made when data were not readily available.
The reader is invited to change any assumptions he finds implausible,
and use the approach to develop numerical estimates  of his own.
RATIONALE
      The objectives  of EPA and the States in implementing the require-
ments of the Federal Water Pollution Control Act Amendments of 1972
(P. L. 92-500;  86 Stat. 816) are to "prevent,  reduce,  and eliminate

-------
SECTION 1

pollution of water resources, " "improve their sanitary condition, " and
"restore and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity"
of the Nation's groundwaters.  To prevent, reduce, and eliminate pollu-
tion requires  that the sources of groundwater pollution be identified, and
that control and enforcement actions be undertaken on the basis of the
severity of pollution and the number of people who would benefit from
cleaner waters.
      The phrase "monitoring groundwater quality" has almost invariably
been used in the  sense of taking samples of water from a well and subject-
ing these samples to chemical and biological analysis.  Information de-
scribing groundwater pollution is very sparse, and the data that do exist
have not been centrally collected and compiled.  Because of their sparsity
and unreliability it appears that an adequate picture of groundwater  pollu-
tion could not be drawn from existing data even if the scattered and  frag-
mentary reports were collected and compiled.
      In studying the question of how groundwater quality might be assessed
most effectively  in relation to cost and to best support the development
of groundwater quality standards and enforcement procedures, TEMPO
soon recognized  that "monitoring" must be used in a much broader sense
than simply analyzing  samples of groundwater, and inferring the state of
the aquifer from these samples.  This recognition is based on some of
the facts of groundwater hydrology:
      •  Groundwater  moves so slowly (the average rate ranges from
         5  feet per day to  5 feet per year) that contaminants may not be
         detected at sampling points for years or decades after they
         enter the ground.
      •  A water sample  from a nonpumped well is representative only
         of the water in the well; if  the well has been pumped, even  for
         a  number of years, the water sample may have moved only a
         few tens of feet during the  period of pumping,  and the sample

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                                                       INTRODUCTION


         is still representative of only a tiny fraction of the aquifer
         volume.
      •  Many contaminants tend to occur in plumes that spread out
         quite  slowly.  Thus, samples taken from a particular point
         in the aquifer  are very unlikely to be representative of the
         aquifer.  It follows that groundwater monitoring in the conven-
         tional sense of well-sampling is an indirect method, and one
         that can be relied upon to produce high-confidence results only
         at very considerable expense,  if at all.
      •  Tracing detected contaminants back to their source—both in
         space and time—is often very difficult, and may not provide
         adequate proof of legal culpability.
      A major conclusion from these facts  is that the detection of pollu-
tants at the point where they enter the ground (which may constitute a
violation of regulations, when the regulations impose controls intended
to prevent the  escape of pollutants into the  ground) is the most rapid and
effective way  to detect  and limit the amount of pollution.
      This study demonstrates  that analysis of man's activities can serve
as an alternative approach to sampling groundwater to monitor  its quality.
It should be noted that this approach may be no more indirect a means of
monitoring than the sampling approach which has conventionally been
used.
OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH
      Available historical data  and growth rate projections were used to
assess the impact of past, present, and future demographic,  economic,
and technological factors upon groundwater quality.  As  indicated earlier,
demonstration studies were conducted using the  following four industrial
wastewater examples and two solid waste examples:
      •  Pulp and paper manufacturing wastewater
      •  Petroleum refining wastewater

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SECTION 1
      •  Primary metals manufacturing wastewater
      •  Phosphate mining wastewater
      •  Commercial fertilizer consumption
      •  Beef cattle feedlot wastes
Wastewater Examples
      The first three examples are based largely on U. S.  Bureau of the
Census manufacturing statistics and industry growth forecasts by the
University of Maryland's Bureau of Business and Economic Research.
The fourth is based primarily upon U. S. Bureau of Mines  data.
      The estimates are segregated by U.S.  Bureau of the Census Indus-
trial Water Use Regions (see Figure  1) except  in the case  of phosphate
rock mining, since this latter industry is concentrated in  a single county
in central Florida.  Because of the highly aggregate nature of the data
they are meant only to reflect orders of magnitude and in  the case of
projections, only trends.  Their use  is intended to be  limited to sugges-
tions for further research and not as regulatory guidelines,  nor as  de-
finitive indications of the hazard from these  activities.  For example,
the potential harm that might be caused by groundwater pollution in a  very
concentrated,  populous  area is obviously greatly different from the same
amount spread over a wide area.
      In addition to  the uncertainty due to aggregations, more uncertainty
arises from the limited amount of data collected.  In order to confidently
estimate pollution in groundwater not only is it necessary to know the
diffusion properties of the polluted water after it enters an aquifer, but
also to have information concerning soil properties and wastewater en-
gineering practices of the industries  in question.  The data collected  did
not encompass all of these needs.
      Of major interest in the wastewater  studies were treatment prac-
tices that use  unlined earthen pits to contain wastewater and their waste
solids, possibly allowing wastes  to seep into underground aquifers.  The

-------
INTRODUCTION
           o
           ro
           £
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-------
SECTION 1
two relevant practices were unlined sedimentation and lagooning.  The
first, unlined sedimentation, is used to remove suspended solids.  The
water is contained in an unlined basin and the solids are settled out.
This purely physical treatment is also called primary treatment.  In the
second,  the water sits in a shallow pond and the bacteria which the water
contains combine with oxygen from the air to stabilize the waste products
remaining after primary treatment.  This biological treatment is also
called secondary treatment.  Because of the relatively short detention
time of the water for sedimentation as compared to lagooning —and thus
the lesser containment capacity required—unlined sedimentation consti-
tutes a lesser threat to groundwater integrity.
      The major relevant parameters for estimating infiltration  potential
from these wastewater treatment practices  are the following:
      1.   Constituents of the wastewater which might migrate into the
          underground water supply
      2.   Aquifer structure of proximate area
      3.   Soil composition
      4.   Containment time for water  treatment
      5.   Area covered by water (or by empty lagoons,  etc, -waiting to
          be  cleaned)
      6.   Degree to  which lagoon or sedimentation basin seals itself.
      Constituents and their concentrations  were found for the most part
                              2
from The Cost of Clean Water.   In most cases total wastewater as given
by Cost was  divided into total wasteload of a specific constituent to obtain
the concentration.   This, of course,  varies from case to case; but only
an average could be obtained.  The concentration becomes even more
uncertain in  the case of a multistep production process in which  different
waterborne wastes are generated according to  steps, since the wastes
may be treated together.  Depending on the  assumptions made, the esti-
mated concentrations could vary greatly.

-------
                                                       INTRODUCTION

      The waste constituents for which the water is being treated, BOD
(biochemical oxygen demand) or suspended solids, are not necessarily
of interest.  Those of concern are total solids dissolved in the water
(TDS) and constituents such as cyanide,  arsenic, cadmium, zinc, etc.
These are  the pollutants which may find their way into groundwater under
certain geological and hydrological conditions.   While peculiar geological
and hydrological factors in each of the regions were not  studied, it may
be germane to point out, for example,  that the Southeast, a region in
which lagooning is a widespread practice, has a high water table which
greatly increases the potential for groundwater pollution.
      On the basis of conversations with sanitary engineers, '  the waste-
water studies assumed a seepage rate of 30  inches per year for unlined
lagoons and ponds used in  all industries and regions. The limiting fac-
tors are the soil and the sealing activity of the waste treatment bottom.
This sealing activity is rather  uniform; thus the assumption of a constant
infiltration rate may not be too  far off.  However, a few months are re-
quired for  a new lagoon or basin to seal itself,  during which time a high
seepage rate exists.  This seepage rate will obviously depend on the
characteristics of the soil.  Moreover, since lagooning as a widespread
practice is a relatively recent  phenomenon,  presealant seepage has
probably not been negligible.  Because of the sketchiness of the data,
however, variation in the seepage rate was not taken into account in any
systematic way.
      The finalized data are in the form of volume of wastewater treated
and acreage covered continuously by water being treated by the various
processes.  For sedimentation  basins, the algorithm used to estimate
acreage is  the following:  obtain total water being treated per year from
 Secondary treatment actually reduces cyanide level.
 Notably Professor P. H. McGauhey, Sanitary Engine'
 Laboratory,  University of California at Berkeley.

-------
SECTION 1

                       3 4
Census of Manufactures '   and estimate the portion that is treated.
Assuming that each industry operates 300  days per  year, divide 300 into
total water treated to estimate the total water  dumped into basins each
day.  Divide by two to account for one-half day of treatment time.   To
obtain acreage covered, divide daily volume by 7. 5 to obtain cubic feet
of •water, divide cubic feet by the basin depth (assumed to be 8 feet for
sedimentation basins),  and finally divide the resulting square feet  of
coverage by  square feet per acre (43,560).  For lagoons, the calculation
is similar but the volume must be increased by the  number of days the
wastewater is retained. Based on an average  pond  depth of 4 feet, a de-
tention time  of 20 days was assumed (on the basis of personal contact, *
Paper Profits,  Wastewater Engineering,   etc).  Thus,  the calculation
was as follows:
      Gallons lagooned/year + 300 days/year = gallons lagooned/day,
and
      Gallons lagooned/day X 20 days -^7.5 gallons/cubic f t ^ 4 f t depth
         •j- 43, 560 ft^/acre  = acreage covered.
      However, this calculation assumes 20 separate lagoons to avoid
holding some water for more than 20 days.  Also,  some excess  lagoon
capacity must be available  to allow for cleaning, and some time is re-
quired to fill and empty the lagoons. "I"  Because of these latter considera-
tions, after arriving at acreage by the aforementioned method, an extra
50 percent was  added for the steel and petroleum wastewater cases;
 *P.H. McGauhey.
 ^Neglecting drainage times, exactly 50 percent excess capacity would be
 necessary employing three lagoons of  10 days' capacity each.  Lagoon 1
 would be filled from days  1 through 10 and the effluent held through day
 30.  Lagoon 2 would be filled from days 11 through 20 and the effluent
 held through day 40.  Lagoon 3 would be filled from days  21 through 30,
 after which lagoon 1 would again be available for filling.
                                   10

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                                                       INTRODUCTION

the extra capacity was neglected in the paper wastewater case.  The
omission is not critical because varying detention times, depths, waste-
water engineering processes, climate, etc, render these results very
approximate and  aggregative at best.
      Aside from estimating present acreage covered, wastewater vol-
umes were projected forward to 1983 and backward to 1954.  As more
and more water receives treatment in unlined basins  and lagoons, the
threat to groundwater increases because of larger seepage areas.  In
most cases the 1968 figures from the 1967  Census of  Manufactures  were
used for a base and 1977 (the  EPA deadline for best practicable technol-
ogy) was assumed to be the year in which all wastewater had to undergo
secondary treatment.  In the pulp and paper industry,  for instance, in
1968 about 34 percent of total wastewater underwent treatment. In 1977
100 percent is assumed to be  treated, and interpolations were  used for
the interim years.   When supportable by the available data, different
projections were made for different regions.
      In addition  to considering amounts of water treated, assumptions
were made  in regard to changes in treatment technology.  For instance,
as more lagoons  become lined and aerated  and more water is treated by
alternate methods, deeper lagoons, shorter detention times, and a smaller
amount of water lagooned in relation to total -water receiving secondary
treatment can be assumed.
      Detailed results of the pulp and paper,  petroleum refining, and
primary metals manufacturing wastewater  studies are given in Sections
2, 3, and 4.  The phosphate mining wastewater study is described in
Section 5.
Solid Waste Examples
      The commercial fertilizer and feedlot waste examples generally
follow a similar methodological approach to that employed  in the liquid-
waste studies. Both employ statistical data prepared by the Bureau of
                                  11

-------
SECTION 1

the Census and the U.S. Department of Agriculture to define past condi-
tions,  both are based on regions defined by the Bureau of the Census,
and both employ growth forecasts from the University of Maryland's
Bureau of Business and Economic Research in order to project future
trends.
      Like the industrial waste-water examples, the fertilizer and feedlot
examples employ certain assumptions:  the results are intended only to
indicate orders of magnitude and trends and to demonstrate a methodology
and suggest areas for further work.  The nine fertilizer-using regions
and the eleven cattle feeding  regions used in these studies are doubtless
too aggregated to furnish data upon which to base  regulatory action.  But
again, even at this level of aggregation it may be  useful to  note, for exam-
ple, that the South Atlantic fertilizer consuming region is projected to
apply more fertilizer tonnage per acre  by 1985 than any other region in
the United States, and this region is roughly equivalent in its boundaries
to the Southeast industrial water use region with its intensive industrial
wastewater lagooning activity.
      Neither the fertilizer nor the feedlot waste study attempts to define
the groundwater pollution  potential of these substances, but only to dem-
onstrate a possible approach to determine in a gross way what past,
present, and future concentrations of pollutants may exist and at what
rate the condition may  be  intensifying.  To carry  the analyses further
requires more disaggregation and additional data  (eg, on rainfall, which
may be an important determinant of the pollution potential of some solid
wastes), and expert geological and hydrological judgments.  The detailed
results of the fertilizer and feedlot waste investigations are described
in Sections 6 and 7, respectively.
Estimation of Groundwater  Infiltration
      The methodology employed in the demonstration studies described
in this report yields estimates of past and projected potential groundwater
                                  12

-------
                                                       INTRODUCTION

pollutants based on economic growth and technological change.  A hydro-
logical analysis is required to derive the actual ground-water pollution
which may be caused by these potential pollutants.
      The following demonstrates a first-approximation approach to esti-
mating the extent  to which liquid wastes can infiltrate and pollute aquifers,
using as an example leachate from an urban landfill. Clearly,  the results
can be made more explicit  and more reliable by incorporating more specific
data.
      Consider a hypothetical groundwater basin in the  Eastern United
States  with an area of 1,000 square miles.  The area is  largely urbanized,
with a  population of some 2 million persons.  Assuming a landfill for
every 20,000 persons,  a total of 100 landfills are distributed within the
area.
      To determine the effect of landfills on groundwater quality, assume
that:
      •  The average landfill has  an area of one million square feet
         (1,000  by 1,000 feet, or  23  acres)
      •  Ninety  percent of the existing landfills have no  controls to pre-
         vent leakage and hence are capable of generating leachate
      •  Annual precipitation averages  36 inches per year and 50 percent
         (or  18 inches) of this infiltrates into the landfills  and emerges
         as leachate.
On the basis of the above assumptions,  the leachate generated by one
landfill will amount to
      106 ft2 X 1. 5 ft/yr X 7.48 gal/ft3  = 11 X 106 gal/yr.
     This volume of leachate mixes in most cases with the ground-water
contained in  the shallow unconfined aquifer underlying the  landfill.  For
estimating purposes let the actual groundwater velocity  be 3 feet per day.
The leachate can be assumed to mix  by dispersive action within the top
                                  13

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SECTION 1

10 feet of the groundwater body below the water table.  With an aquifer
porosity of 0. 33,  this provides an available groundwater dilution volume
of
      1, 000 ft X 10 ft X 0. 33 X 3(365)ft/yr X 7. 48 gal/ft3 = 27 X 106 gal/yr.
      Bacterial pollution can be neglected so that only chemicals in solu-
tion need be  considered.  If the initial concentration of total dissolved
solids in the leachate averages S, 000 mg/1, and if the mixing of the
leachate within the top 10 feet of groundwater is  complete, the resulting
increase in pollutant concentration of the groundwater will amount to
      This concentration (plus that of the native groundwater) would be
expected in a shallow monitor well located immediately downstream
from the landfill.  At greater distances downstream the concentration
will gradually diminish by dispersion and dilution. In a typical situation
the plume of polluted groundwater might extend 5, 000 feet from a land-
fill—either  to a surface water body receiving groundwater outflow or  to
a point where the concentration was  considered acceptable in terms of
water quality criteria.  The area affected could then be estimated as
      1,000 ft X 5,000  f t  = 5 X 106 ft2, or 115 acres.
      Extending the above reasoning for  a single landfill to the  entire
groundwater basin, the total number of landfills contributing leachate
to groundwater would equal  90.  The total volume of groundwater degraded
would amount to
      90 X (11 + 27) X 106 gal/yr = 3. 4 X 109 gal/yr.
      This volume represents the estimated annual production rate  of
polluted groundwater due to landfills.
      The gross  area subject to groundwater pollution from landfills
would be equal to
                                  14

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                                                      INTRODUCTION


      100(23) + 90(115) =  12,650 acres
                       =  19. 8 square miles.
Stated another -way,  landfills  in the hypothetical basin occupy only 0. 36
percent (3. 6 square miles) of the gross land area in the basin, but they
adversely affect groundwater quality underlying 1.98 percent (19.8 square
miles) of the basin.
      The type of hydrological analysis employed above has the advantage
of being a relatively rapid and easy method for arriving at gross estimates
of groundwater pollution concentrations, volumes, and areas.  It has the
disadvantage of all approximations; namely, it may be misleading in spe-
cific applications unless refined by using more specific information and
improving the estimates on a case-by-case basis, or at least on the basis
of a number of categories of landfills, wastes, construction methods,  and
local  hydrological conditions  (including soil and underlying aquifer materials).
      Some  of the techniques  used in the context of the landfill  illustration
are employed in the analyses of Sections 2 through 7 to give a rough indi-
cation of the probable importance of potential  groundwater pollutants
from  various sources. However,  it cannot be  emphasized too  strongly
that the results are very  approximate.  Far more detailed and specific
data and analyses are necessary to make decisions  regarding regulation,
monitoring, and enforcement actions.  The intent at this stage is to dem-
onstrate methodology, not to  produce quantitative results.
                                  15

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                              SECTION 2
                PULP AND PAPER INDUSTRY WASTEWATER
INTRODUCTION
      In  1968 the pulp and paper industry discharged 2, 078 billion gallons
of wastewater and was responsible for one-fourth of all industrial effluent
treated in lagoons in the United States.  This total effluent output by the
pulp and  paper industry represented an increase of 28 percent over that
of 1954,  and is about one-half of the expected discharge in 1983.  Pulp
and paper manufacturing is a significant industry in most,  but not all, of
the 18 Industrial Water Use Regions (Figure 1).
      Two types of wastewater treatment are commonly employed:  "pri-
mary, " or sedimentation,  treatment to settle out suspended solids, and
"secondary" treatment for the  reduction of biological oxygen demand
(BOD) through bacterial action to stabilize waste products.  Generally,
BOD treatment occurs after wastewaters have been subjected to sedi-
mentation treatment.  In a few paper-manufacturing regions  of the coun-
try sedimentation treatment is accomplished in unlined earthen basins,
while lagooning for BOD reduction  is used in all areas.
      Lagoons receive greater volumes of wastewater, require more
time to dispose of their wastes and occupy more extensive acreage than
do unlined sedimentation basins in  this industry.  In 1954,  86 billion gal-
lons of effluent were treated in lagoons covering 4,400 acres, while 84
billion gallons were processed in unlined sedimentation basins  covering
only 54 acres.   In 1968, the figures were 466 billion gallons  and 24,000
acres  for lagooning, with 212 billion gallons and 135 acres for  unlined
sedimentation.  As discussed subsequently in this  section, the  industry
                                  16

-------
                                                       PULP AND PAPER

is projected by 1983 to process 1,864 billion gallons of waste-water cover-
ing 73,000 acres in lagoons,  and 99 billion gallons covering 63 acres in
unlined sedimentation basins.  These figures indicate the divergence over
time of increase in effluent treated from the more modest increases in
total effluent.
      The greatest concentration of pulp and paper industry lagooning and
unlined sedimentation basin processing in the United States is  in the
Southeast region, with substantial  volumes and areas also evident in the
Pacific Northwest, Arkansas, New England, and the Western Great Lakes
regions.  According to Paper Profits,   lagooning is used extensively in
all regions  of the country having significant pulp and paper industry ac-
tivity.  Unlined sedimentation is used extensively only in the Chesapeake
Bay,  Southeast,  and Pacific  Northwest regions, with the other paper-
producing regions using different primary treatment techniques.
      The effluent from these lagoons and basins is a possible groundwater
contaminant,  since it  contains 0.012 pounds per gallon of TDS (total  dis-
solved solids)  and may infiltrate underlying groundwater.  Generally,
the TDS content is composed  of lignins, wood sugars,  sulfates, sulfites,
calcium compounds, grease, and color.  Since the TDS content of the
effluent is not significantly affected by sedimentation or  lagooning, a
homogeneous batch of waste-water—in terms of its possible impact on
groundwater quality —can be  assumed for both these treatment processes.
Based on conversations with sanitary engineers, the infiltration rate of
this effluent from unlined basins and lagoons into underlying ground-water
is estimated to be 30 inches per year.   This figure may  vary by as much
as a factor  of 10, depending  on local soil conditions, self-sealing, and
presealant leakage.
      The following subsections discuss the assumptions made and the
analytical approach used in projecting the volume of wastewater for un-
lined sedimentation and lagooning.  Standard Industrial Code (SIC) 26,
                                  17

-------
SECTION 2
"Paper and Allied Products, " was used in gathering information from

                        3 4
 Census of Manufactures. '   The regional volumes of and the areas cov-


 ered by the two treatment methods are reviewed and the total volume of


 wastewater discharged nationally by the industry is presented.



APPROACH


      Five factors were considered in the projections of the volume of


wastewater in unlined sedimentation basins and lagoons  and  several


assumptions were made accordingly.



      The first factor was the growth of the industry's production output.


The following estimates of the annual growth rates for 1971-1983 were


obtained from the University of Maryland, Bureau of Business and Eco-


nomic Research.



                        Year       Percent/Year


                      1971-1973         5.73


                      1974-1975         6.55


                      1976-1978         5.36


                      1979-1983         2.21


 The 1968-1971 growth rate was assumed to be the same as that  shown


 in the projections for 1971-1973.



      The second factor considered was possible variation in water-


 usage per unit of output. None of the references consulted anticipated


 any lower usage  or more recycling  within the projection period.   Thus,


 the wastewater discharged (as opposed to wastewater treated) by the


 industry was assumed to grow at the same rates as those  shown for pro-


 duction output.  Table 1 shows the past and projected volume of  waste-


 water discharged from 1954-1983.  The  historical data (1954-1968) shown

                                                  3 4
 in the table are taken from Census of Manufactures. '    The data were


 listed by region for 1964 and 1968,  but only national totals were available


 for  1954 and 1959.  For these earlier two periods  the regional discharge


 shares are assumed to be the same as for 1964 and the  total industry
                                  18

-------
                                                       PULP AND PAPER
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                                    19

-------
SECTION 2



discharge allocated accordingly.  The national projections for waste-water

discharge for 1971-1983 are based on the above industry growth rates

from Reference 1,  while the regional projections assume  that the  1968
regional distribution will remain unchanged through 1983.

      The third consideration was possible changes in the amount  of
wastewater undergoing primary treatment as a percentage of the total
discharged  by the industry.  This was reviewed only for the three regions
shown in Table 2, as none of the other thirteen regions  examined was
using unlined sedimentation basins for primary treatment.  The 1964 and

1968 data were taken directly from Census of Manufactures.  The back-
ward projections for  1954  and  1959 assume that,  since water pollution
regulations  were less stringent in those years than in 1964, the approxi-

mate percentages of water treated in 1954 and 1959 were respectively
20 percent and 10 percent  lower than in 1964.  The 1971-1983 projections
assume that these particular three regions will comply  with the EPA re-
quirement to treat  100 percent of all wastewater prior to discharge by
1977.   Each region is projected to  achieve 100 percent treatment by 1977

in increments that  depend  upon 1968 treatment percentages.

      The fourth factor considered in the projections was  possible changes
in waste-treatment technology.  The references  reviewed indicated that
industry use of the "best available"  technology by  1983 -will tend to stem
the rise of unlined  sedimentation and lagooning.   The  former is considered
a "primitive" treatment process, while the latter is considered an "ad-
        ^
vanced" method.  Thus,   in addition to total percentages of primary treat-
ment,  Table 2 shows for three regions the percentages  of primary treat-

ment accomplished in unlined basins for 1954-1983, the 1968 data for
which are taken from Paper Profits.   In projecting back  from 1968 to
  But only in the context of today's technology.  EPA 1983 requirements
  will probably relegate unlined lagoons to something less than an "ad-
 vanced" treatment technique.
                                  20

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                                                           PULP AND PAPER
Table 2.  Estimated percentages of pulp and paper industry total wastewater discharged
         receiving primary treatment and estimated percentages of primary treatment
         achieved in unlined sedimentation basins, 1954—1983.
Region
Chesapeake Bay
Total % treated0
% treated in unlined
basins
Southeast
Total % treated0
% treated in unlined
basins
Pacific Northwest
Total % treated0
% treated in unlined
basins"
1954

22
45

25
65

7
40
1959

32
40

35
60

17
35
1964

42
35

45
55

27
30
1968

49
30

55
50

41
25
1971

70
25

75
40

65
21
1973

85
20

90
30

85
18
1975

95
15

95
20

95
14
1977

100
10

100
10

100
10
1983

100
5

100
5

100
5
Notes:
a!964 and 1968 data from References 3 and 4; a 10% per 5 years decrease from
1964—1954 is assumed in total percentage of wastewater treated because of less
stringent pollution regulations.
"1968 data from References 2 and 5; for wastewater treated, 5% and 10% more is
assumed treated in unlined sedimentation basins in 1959 and 1954, respectively,
because of the state of treatment technology, and the EPA requirement of 'best
available technology" by 1983 is assumed to virtually rule out unlined basinso
1954,  the percentages of wastewater treatment in unlined sedimentation

basins were increased by 5 percent per 5 years to reflect the more primi-

tive state of treatment technology.  The  1971—1983 projections assume

that by 1983 EPA requirements will virtually eliminate the use of unlined

basins in the three regions.   Each of the regions was projected individ-

ually, depending upon its 1968 percentage.

      Since secondary treatment of wastewater by  lagooning was an ad-

vanced process in the earlier part of the period covered by this study,
                                   21

-------
 SECTION 2
  the 1954—1964 estimates contained in Table 3 assume that the percentages

  of total effluent treated in  each region by lagooning were less than they

  were in 1968. For 1954,  1959, and  1964 these were assumed to be 25,

  50, and 75 percent of the 1968 lagooning percentages, while the 1971-

  1977 projections  assume that the percentage of total effluent treated by
                                                                   o
  lagooning will increase to  approximately 50 to 60 percent by 1977.   Both

  of these projections were  made individually for  each region, depending


Table 3.  Estimated percentages of total wastewater discharged receiving secondary

         treatment in lagoons in the pulp and paper industry,  1954—1983,,
Region
New England
Delaware and
Hudson
Chesapeake Bay
Eastern Great
Lakes
Ohio River
Southeast
Western Great
Lakes
Upper Mississippi
Arkansas
Western Gulf
Pacific
Northwest
1954°
Oo3
3.
6.
2.
3.
11.
4.
0.2
24.
12.
3.
1959°
0.5
6.
11.
4.
6.
22.
8.
0.4
49.
24.
6.
1964a
0.8
9.
17.
5.
8.
33.
11.
0.6
73.
35.
8.
1968b
lo
12.
22.
7.
11.
44.
15.
0.8
97.
47.
1.
1971
10.
25.
30.
20.
16.
50.
20.
10o
98.
55.
20.
1973
20.
40.
35.
35.
35.
60.
35.
20.
96.
60 o
30.
1975
40.
55.
40.
50.
45.
65.
55.
50.
94.
70.
50.
1977C
60.
60.
40.
60.
55.
65.
60.
60.
92.
70.
60.
1983°
50.
60.
40.
50.
50.
50.
50.
50.
86.
60.
50.
Notes:
aPast projections assume progressive 25 percent decreases in lagooning.
"Data from Reference 4.
c Based on estimates from Reference 2.
                                     22

-------
                                                        PULP AND PAPER
upon its  1968 percentage.  Finally, the 1983 projections assume that
simple lagooning will not be considered the "best available" technology
in 1983,  and so will not satisfy the EPA's 1983 requirements.    Thus,
all of the regional percentages for 1983 were either slightly reduced to
reflect more advanced  technology or were maintained at their 1977 levels.
      The fifth factor was whether the  industry exhibits any significant
seasonality of production, as this could affect the capacity  requirements
for sedimentation basins and lagoons.  Since no production peaks seem
to exist,  it was assumed that basin and lagoon capacities need be suffi-
cient only for uniform production,  wastewater discharge, and treatment
schedules in any given  year.
REGIONAL POLLUTION IMPLICATIONS
Unlined Sedimentation Basins
      The estimated  volume of, and area covered by, wastewater in un-
lined sedimentation basins in the three regions employing this practice
are shown in Table 4.  From 1954—1983,  the Southeast is shown in the
table to have several times the volume and acreage of either of  the other
two regions, with the Chesapeake Bay  region having the smallest volume
and acreage.  The year in which the  greatest volumes and acreages for
the three regions are expected is  1973, while 1975-1983  reflect a signifi-
cant reduction in both parameters  due  to adoption of more advanced
treatment methods.
      At the assumed infiltration rate  of 30 inches  per year, for 1973  the
Chesapeake Bay, Southeast, and Pacific Northwest regions show an infil-
tration potential of 37,  342,  and 100  acre-feet of wastewater per year,
respectively.   By 1983, the  infiltration potential is projected  to drop to
15, 95, and 50 acre-feet per year.
Lagoons
      The volume of, and acreages covered by,  wastewater lagoons in
various regions employing this treatment process  are shown in  Table  5.
                                  23

-------
SECTION 2
  Table 4.  Volume and area of wastewater in pulp and paper industry in unlined
           sedimentation basins,  1954-1983.
Region
Chesapeake Bay
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Southeast
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Pacific Northwest
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
United States
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
1954
9
0.06

68
0.43

6
0.04

84
0.54
1959
13
0.08

98
0.62

15
0.10

126
0.80
1964
17
0.11

127
0.81

26
0.16

170
1.08
1968
15
0.10

165
1.05

32
0.20

212
1.35
1971
22
0.14

214
1.36

50
0.32

286
1.82
1973
23
0.15

215
1.37

63
0.40

301
1.92
1975
22
0.14

172
1.10

62
0.39

256
1.63
1977
17
0.11

100
0.64

52
0.33

169
1.08
1983
10
0.06

59
0.37

30
0.19

99
0.63
Sources: Tables 1 and 2; References 2, 3, and 4.
From 1954-1983, the Southeast has a much greater volume and area than
any other region for lagoons as well as for unlined sedimentation.  Other
regions expected to have relatively large volumes and areas in lagoons
from 1971-1983 are:
      •  New England
      •  Western Great Lakes
      •  Arkansas
      •  Pacific Northwest.
      Most of the urban, colder regions of the country show a steady in-
crease in volume of wastewater lagooned from  1971-1977.  Acreage for
these regions from 1975-1983 either increases much more gradually
than volume  or decreases because it has been assumed that increased
use will be made of aerated lagoons (assumed to be 6 feet deep, with a
detention period of 18 days) in these regions.  This will decrease acreage
requirements and treatment-cycle times.  The  volume-to-area ratio in
                                 24

-------
                                                              PULP AND PAPER
Table 5.  Volume and area of wastewater in pulp and paper industry lagoons, 1954-1983.
Region
New England
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Delaware and Hudson
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Chesapeake Bay
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Eastern Great Lakes
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Ohio River
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Southeast
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Western Great Lakes
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Upper Mississippi
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Arkansas
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Western Gulf
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Pacific Northwest
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
United States
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
1954

<1
0.3

4
2

6
3

2
1

1
0.5

46
23

5
3

<1
-

12
6

2
1

7
4

86
44
1959

1
0.5

10
5

11
6

3
2

3
2

103
53

12
6

<1
0.2

29
15

4
2

15
8

191
100
1964

2
1

11
6

19
10

4
2

4
2

169
86

17
9

<1
0.4

49
25

10
5

26
13

311
159
1968

2
1

8
4

22
11

5
3

5
3

264
135

24
12

1
0.5

77
39

24
12

34
17

466
240
1971

30
15

19
10

37
19

15
8

8
4

356
182

39
20

15
8

96
49

27
14

74
38

716
367
1973

66
34

33
17

48
24

29
15

19
10

478
244

77
39

33
17

106
54

33
17

124
63

1,046
534
1975

150
45

52
16

62
19

47
14

28
9

588
300

137
42

94
29

118
60

43
22

234
72

1,553
628
1977

248
76

62
19

69
21

62
19

38
12

651
332

166
51

124
38

127
65

48
24

311
95

1,906
752
1983

244
75

73
22

81
25

61
19

41
13

588
300

162
50

122
37

139
71

49
25

304
93

1,864
730
Sources: Reference 4 and Table 3.
                                      25

-------
SECTION 2

the warmer, more rural regions is projected to show less change; for
purposes of the projections these were assumed to remain 4 feet deep
with a detention period of 20 days.
      Table 5 shows that despite increased use of aeration, beginning in
1975  lagoon acreage in some regions continues to exhibit a general in-
crease due to the increased volumes of wastewater.  The declines in
lagooning acreage between  1977 and 1983 in some regions are explained
by the substitution of other treatment methods for lagooning.
      A comparison of the figures  in Table 4 with those in Table 5 indi-
cates that  unlined sedimentation basins occupy up to hundreds of times
less area per gallon of effluent  treated than do lagoons.  This is due to
the greater wastewater depth and shorter detention time employed in
sedimentation.  The difference  between the volume-to-area relationship
of each treatment method is apparent in the 1968-1983 data for  the three
regions of the country which employ both types of treatment processes:
the Chesapeake Bay, the Southeast, and the Pacific Northwest.  During
this 15-year period,  Tables 4 and  5 reveal the following volume and area
relationships of lagooning  to unlined sedimentation:
      •  Chesapeake Bay
         — 1968 volume 1. 5 times greater,  area 110 times greater
         — 1983 volume 8 times greater, area 400 times greater
      •  Southeast
         — 1968 volume 1.6 times greater,  area 130 times greater
         — 1983 volume 10 times greater, area 800 times greater
      •  Pacific Northwest
         — 1968 volume equal, area 85  times greater
         — 1983 volume 10 times greater, area 500 times greater.
The foregoing area relationships highlight  the vastly greater infiltration
potential of lagoons for a given volume of wastewater treated.
                                  26

-------
                                                       PULP AND PAPER

      The peak year in the Southeast region for acreage covered, 1971,
results in a potential for 45, 500 acre-feet per year of wastewater infil-
tration at the assumed rate of 30 inches per year.  In 1977,  the peak
year for the Northwest region in terms of acreage  covered,  infiltration
•would amount to 19,750 acre-feet per  year.  In this same year,  the in-
filtration amount for the New England  region is 15, 750 acre-feet per
year.  While these infiltration projections are at best very approximate,
it should also be borne in mind when considering their magnitude that
the computations do not include  the extra lagoon acreage necessary
(approximately 50 percent) for filling and emptying cycles and BOD
reduction.
NATIONAL POLLUTION IMPLICATIONS
      Table 6 shows the national volume of wastewater discharged,  the
volume treated before discharge,  and  the area covered by the treatment
processes over the 1954—1983 projection period.  The total volume dis-
charged by the industry increased by approximately 25 percent from
1954-1968,  and is projected to double from 1968-1983.   The rates of
increase in the future, however, are expected to reflect the  projected
rates of growth of production output and so will be  slowly decreasing.
      The volume and area covered by wastewater  in unlined sedimenta-
tion basins from 1954-1968 increased by a factor of approximately two
and one-half, -while  from 1968—1983 they decrease by approximately
one-half.
      The volume and area covered by wastewater  in lagoons from 1954-
1968 increases by approximately five times.  From 1968—1983,  the
volume lagooned increases fourfold, while the area covered  by the pro-
cess increases threefold.  The 1983 volume and area figures, however,
show a slight decline from 1977, representing technological  improvements
in treatment.
                                 27

-------
 SECTION 2
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                                     28

-------
                               SECTION 3
                          PETROLEUM REFINING
                         INDUSTRY WASTEWATER
INTRODUCTION
      The petroleum refining industry employs a complex series of inter-
related steps, each subprocess yielding a different type of product and
liquid effluent.  Detailed information describing the wastewater from
these several steps is sparse, and no attempt was made in these pro-
jections to delineate wastewater treatment by specific production subpro-
cesses  of the petroleum refining industry.  Wastewater from the industry
as a whole was assumed to be homogeneous.   The principal constituents
of consequence to groundwater quality appear to be oil, ammonia,  sus-
                                                    278
pended solids, phenols, spent caustics, and sulfides.  '
      The volumes of petroleum refining wastewater treated vary sub-
stantially among the Industrial Water Use Regions.  Overall, this industry
uses a volume of water in  its processes that is comparable to that used by
the pulp and paper  industry.  In 1959, 1964, and 1968 the industry dis-
charged 1,200, 1,320,  and 1,220 billion gallons of water,  respectively.
Approximately 25 percent  of the  industry's water intake is solely for
cooling purposes, of which increasing amounts are being  recirculated:*
from 1954 to 1964 production output increased approximately 48 percent,
-while water intake increased only 13 percent.    Since cooling water re-
quires treatment only for thermal pollution, the volume of wastewater
subject to effluent treatment processes is less than the total volume
discharged.^
*A 2-year study, partially funded by EPA,  is currently being conducted
 to find means to increase even further the percentage of petrochemical
 wastewater that can be recycled.
                                 29

-------
SECTION 3

      The primary references used in this effort were the Census of
             34                             2
Manufactures '   and The Cost of Clean Water.   Standard Industrial
Code 29, "Petroleum and Coal Products," was used from References 3
and 4 for 1959,  1964, and 1968 baseline data for wastewater output pro-
jections  instead of the seemingly more appropriate Subcode 2911, "Petro-
leum Refining, " because SIC 29 was the only industrial entry containing
both the  regional and national tables.  However,  since Subcode 2911
accounted in 1959 and 1964 for 97 percent of the  volume of water dis-
charged  in SIC 29, this did not appear to  present a serious problem in
developing and demonstrating a methodological approach for monitoring
and predicting petroleum refining wastewater output.
      As with paper and primary metals manufacturing wastewater, the
treatment practices of interest are unlined  sedimentation and lagooning,
broken down by the Industrial Water Use  Regions shown in Figure 1.  Use
of these  two treatment methods  appears to be concentrated in the Dela-
ware and Hudson, Western Great  Lakes,  Western Gulf,  and California
regions.  The same factors described in  Sections 1  and  2 were con-
sidered in making regional projections into the past and future:  industry
growth,  variations in water usage per unit of production output, changes
in amount of wastewater treated as a percentage of the total discharged,
and  changes in wastewater treatment technology.
APPROACH
      University of Maryland Bureau of Business and Economic Research
projections  of  average annual growth rates of production output of the
petroleum refining industry were used to estimate the expected output of
the petroleum refining industry from 1971-1983.  The growth estimates
are:
               Years                             Percent/Year
              1971-1973                             4.49
              1974-1975                              3.85
              1976-1978                              3.43
              1979-1983                              3.08
                                  30

-------
                                                           PETROLEUM

      These industry growth rate projections indicate an overall growth
of 71 percent between 1968 and 1983 in industry output, but in the past
production output has increased more rapidly than water intake and
wastewater discharged.  This divergence was taken into account by as-
suming a 1968-1983 annual growth rate of 2 percent per year in waste-
water discharged, a rate somewhat less than the projected industry
output growth.  This results in an overall increase in annual wastewater
discharged of 35 percent between 1968 and 1983. The  2 percent growth
                                                   2          8
rate was derived as a middle figure between FWPCA  and EPA  waste -
water growth projections.  The former suggests a rate of 3.6 percent
per year, while the latter suggests an annual growth rate of only about
1. 2 percent.
      The third factor  listed above, changes in the  amount of wastewater
treated as a percentage of the total amount discharged, is not expected to
show the large  increase projected in the  pulp and paper industry.  Ac-
                                  3, 4
cording to Census of Manufactures *  data,  75 percent of the total volume
discharged in 1964 and 1968 received effluent treatment.   Except for
those regions exhibiting more than 75 percent treatment in 1968, this per-
centage of the total wastewater discharged was viewed as the maximum
amount requiring treatment for effluents throughout the 1968-1983 pro-
jection period,  because of the large percentage of the water used only
for indirect cooling.  For those regions reporting effluent treatment of
more than 75 percent the percentage was held constant throughout the
projection period. *
      The fourth factor,  changes in treatment technology, is expected to
be of significance to the petroleum refining industry due to EPA require-
ments for 100 percent  treatment of (treatable) wastewater before discharge
*The regions reporting more than 75 percent treatment in 1968 could
 actually show a future decline in percentage of water treated, de-
 pending upon the selectivity of their treatment practices.  A corollary
 to this is wastewater treatment  in some urban areas where a common
 system is used to handle both sewage and precipitation runoff.
                                 31

-------
SECTION 3

by 1977, and for use of the best "practicable" treatment technology by
that year.  Decreases are anticipated in unlined sedimentation as
clarifiers come into wider use.  Technological changes that are ex-
pected to affect lagooning beyond 1977 are the adoption of activated sludge
processes for BOD reduction and a growing tendency to use aeration in
lagoons, allowing greater depths and shorter detention times.
      The calculations made on petroleum refining assumed a constant
rate of production, since no large seasonal  effluent output variation for
this  industry is apparent.  Thus, capacity estimates for sedimentation
basins and lagoons are based on a uniform production schedule over the
year, and no excess capacity is allowed for, other than a 50 percent
extra capacity factor for lagoon filling and emptying, BOD reduction (see
Section 1), and cleaning.
WASTEWATER VOLUME PROJECTIONS
                                     3                                 4
     The 1963 Census of Manufactures  and  1967 Census of Manufactures
were used as  a data base for the total volume of wastewater discharged in
each region for 1959,  1964,  and 1968  and for the treated volumes in 1964
and  1968.  These data are given in Table 7 along with estimates for 1954
and projections for 1971-1983.
                                                   4
      Data listed in the 1967 Census of Manufactures for "Primary
Settling" and "Secondary Settling" and FWPCA estimates were used as a
baseline for the volume  of wastewater undergoing unlined sedimentation
treatment from 1954-1968.
Unlined Sedimentation Basins
     For 1967, FWPCA estimated that 40 percent of  all petroleum refin-
eries used "earthen basins" and for 1963, 50 percent.    These figures
were assumed also to be applicable for 1964 and 1968.  Although they do
not refer to the volume of wastewater thus processed,  they are the only
such estimates available in the literature reviewed.  Therefore,  for lack
of better data they were  assumed to represent that portion of "primary and
                                 32

-------
                                                                              PETROLEUM
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                                            33

-------
SECTION 3

secondary settling" accomplished in unlined basins in all petroleum-
refining regions of the country,  and were used as a baseline for the
estimated treatment percentages given in Table 8.  Projections for 1954
and  1959 unlined sedimentation treatment were assumed to increase by
5 percent during each period to 60 and 55 percent,  respectively.  The
1971-1983 treatment projections in Table 8 were based on an assump-
tion of 75 percent treatment (or more, depending upon the 1968 regional
percentages) of total wastewater by 1977 for each region in order to meet
EPA requirements. The 1971, 1973,  and 1975 percentages  of  waste-
water treated in each region were  individually projected on the basis of
the amount of wastewater treatment that had been achieved in 1968.
      Table 9 gives the estimated petroleum refining volume and acreage
of wastewater processed in unlined sedimentation basins from 1954-1983.
The volume for each region and year was derived from Tables  7 and 8
by multiplying total volume  (from Table  7) first by estimated percentage
receiving treatment (Table 8), and then by estimated percentage of
primary treatment achieved in unlined basins  (Table 8). The acreage-
covered figures of Table 9 were derived using the algorithm described
in Section 1 (A = 1/2 (V + 300)  T 7. 5 * 8 + 43,560). The figures assume
an average depth for sedimentation basins of 8 feet and a detention time
of one-half day.
Lagoons
      The procedure used for  estimating the volume of wastewater that
was lagooned from 1954 to 1968 was similar to that for unlined sedimenta-
                                                               4
tion treatment.  The 1968 figures  in 1967 Census  of Manufactures  for
total volume of water discharged (see Table 7) and the lagoon treatment
volume  estimates from the same source (listed under "Ponds or lagoons")
were used to establish percentages of wastewater treated by lagooning
in 1968  both regionally and nationally.  These percentages are given in
Table 10 with 1954-1964 estimates and  1971-1983 projections.
                                 34

-------
                                                                                       PETROLEUM
Table 8.  Percentages of total wastewater receiving primary treatment and estimated
            percentages of primary treatment achieved in unlined  sedimentation basins
            In fhe rxatrnlenm refinmn inrlnctrv.  1954— 1983.
l^^l v*d!IUUC3  *_*!  1^1 III IMI V  I I ^VJ I 11 IV* I II v*\vlll^^v^^' III Ul

in the petroleum refining industry,  1954—1983.
                   Region
        Delaware and Hudson
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
        Eastern Great Lakes
         Total primary treatment % .
         % primary in unlined basins
        Ohio River
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
        Southeast
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
        Western Great Lakes
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
        Upper Mississippi
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
        Lower Mississippi
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
        Missouri
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
        Arkansas
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
        Western Gulf
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
        Great Basin
         Total primary treatment %
         % primary in unlined basins
        California
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
        Pacific Northwest
         Total primary treatment % ,
         °/c primary in unlined basins
        United States
         Total primary treatment % ,
         % primary in unlined basins
                                     1954
                           36
                           60

                           32
                           60

                           27
                           60

                           50
                           60

                           31
                           60

                           40
                           60

                           51
                           60
                           55
                           60

                           53
                           60
                           40
                           60

                           50
                           60

                           41
                           60
                                1959
49
55

41
55

34
55

65
55

41
55

46
55

70
55
64
55

71
55
53
55

75
55

55
55
                                       1964
 70
 50

 60
 50

 67
 50

 80<
 50

 54
 50

 73
 50

 84
 50

 95
 50

 87
 50

 91
 50

100
 50

 80
 50

100
 50

 74
 50
                                              1968
 82
 40

 45
 40

 80
 40

 16'
 40

 45
 40

 65
 40

 71
 40

 89
 40

90
 40

 89
 40
 80
 40

100
 40

 74
 40
                                                     1971
 82
 35

 53
 35

 80
 35

 31
 35

 53
 35

 68
 35

 72
 35

 89
 35

 90
 35

 89
 35

100
 35

 80
 35

100
 35

 76C
 35
                                                            1973
 82
 35

 60
 35

 80
 35

 46
 35

 60
 35

 70
 35

 73
 35

 89
 35

 90
 35

 89
 35

100
 35

 80
 35

100
 35

 78<
 35
                                                                   1975
 82
 30

 67
 30

 80
 30

 61
 30

 67
 30

 72
 30

 74
 30

 89
 30

 90
 30

 89
 30

100
 30

 80
 30

100
 30

 80C
 30
                                                                          1977
 82
 25

 75
 25

 80
 25

 75
 25

 75
 25

 75
 25

 75
 25

 89
 25

 90
 25

 89
 25

100
 25

 80
 25

100
 25

 82C
 25
                                                                                 1983
 82
 15

 75
 15

 80
 15

 75
 15

 75
 15

 75
 15

 75
 15

 89
 15

 90
 15

 89
 15

100
 15

 80
 15

100
 15

 82d
 15
        Notes:
        "For percentages of total wastewater receiving primary treatment:
              •  1954 and 1959 regional data based on national data from References 3 and 4 using
                 1964 regional distributions
              •  1964 and 1968 regional and national data from References 3 and 4
              •  1971-1983 regional and national projections based upon EPA requirement for 100 percent
                 treatment by 1977; regional projections individualized on basis of 1968 treatment status.
        bpor estimated percentages of treatment in unlined basins:
              •  1954-1968 figures based on 1950-1967 estimates from FWPCA2
              •  1971-1975 figures based on FWPCA* estimates with 5 percent increases because original
                 estimates appear too optimistic
              •  1977-1983 figures based on assumption that  unlined basins will not meet EPA's  1983
                 requirements.
        c Apparent anomaly due to large increase in discharge between 1964 and 1968 with no reported
         increase in treatment.
        "Weighted national averages (% primary treatment v  discharge volume summed by year for all
         regions and divided by total national discharge volume).
                                                 35

-------
SECTION 3
Table 9.  Volume and acreage of wastewater in unlined sedimentation basins in the
          petroleum refining industry,  1954-1983.°
Region
Delaware and Hudson
billions of gallons
hundreds of acresc
Eastern Great Lakes
billions of gallons
hundreds of acresc
Ohio River
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
Southeast
billions of gallons
hundreds of ocres°
Western Great Lakes
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
Upper Mississippi
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
Lower Mississippi
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
Missouri
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
Arkansas
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
Western Gulf
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
Great Basin
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
California
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
Pacific Northwest
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
United States
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
1954

68
0.43

11
0.07

6
0.04

< 1
<0.01

27
0.17

2
0.01

28
0.18

-
-

4
0.03

83
0.53

-
-

30
0.19

< 1
<0.01

278
1.77
1959

89
0.57

14
0.09

7
0.04

< 1
<0.01

36
0.23

3
0.02

36
0.23

-
-

5
0.03

108
0.69

-
-

40
0.26

< 1
<0.01

363
2.31
1964

123
0.78

20
0.13

8
0.05

2
0.01

52
0.33

4
0.03

50
0.32

10
0.06

7
0.04

152
0.97

1
<0.01

55
0.35

1
<0.01

485
3.09
1968

105
0.67

13
0.08

9
0.06

2
0.01

28
0.18

4
0.03

35
0.22

7
0.04

5
0.03

119
0.76

-
-

33
0.21

1
<0.01

363
2.31
1971

98
0.62

14
0.09

9
0.06

3
0.02

31
0.20

4
0.03

33
0.21

6
0.04

5
0.03

110
0.70

1
<0.01

30
0.19

1
<0.01

344
2.19
1973

102
0.65

16
0.10

9
0.06

5
0.03

37
0.24

4
0.03

35
0.22

7
0.04

5
0.03

115
0.73

1
<0.01

32
0.20

1
<0.01

367
2.34
1975

91
0.58

16
0.10

8
0.05

5
0.03

36
0.23

4
0.03

32
0.20

6
0.04

4
0.03

103
0.66

1
<0.01

28
0.18

1
<0.01

336
2.14
1977

79
0.50

16
0.10

7
0.04

6
0.04

35
0.22

3
0.02

28
0.18

5
0.03

4
0.03

89
0.57

1
<0.01

24
0.15

1
<0.01

299
1.91
1983

53
0.34

11
0.07

5
0.03

4
0.03

24
0.15

2
0.01

19
0.12

3
0.02

3
0.02

60
0.38

-
-

16
0.10

-
-

202
1.29
Notes:
p-From Tables 7 and 8 (based on References 1, 2, 3, and 4).
Regional figures may not add up to national totals due to rounding of percentages given in Table 8.
cAcreages based on algorithm given in Section 1.
                                      36

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                                                                     PETROLEUM
      Estimates of wastewater treated by lagooning prior to 1968 were
                                             2
 made on the basis of FWPCA estimates  for 1968 and consideration of

 discharge volumes and the state of wastewater  treatment technology  for

 the period.  The 1954 percentage  was thus estimated to  be about 30 per-

 cent  of that for  1968.  Regional percentage projections for 1954—1964

 lagooning treatment  approximate the national percentages,  but take into

 account the amount of lagooning being done in each region as of 1968.

Table 10.  Estimated percentages of total wastewater discharged receiving treatment
           in lagoons in  the petroleum refining industry,  1954-1983.
                        1954"
     1959
     1964
     1968
      1971
      1973
      1975
      1977
      1983
   Delaware and Hudson

   Eastern Great Lakes

   Ohio River

   Western Great Lakes

                 .e
   Upper Mississippi

   Lower Mississippi
         .e
   Missouri
   Arkansas
   Western Gulf
   California
   United States
 8

 3

18



24

21

11

22

 8
15



14

 5

32



42

37

19

38

14
22



21

 7

46



60

54

27

55

21
29



28

10

60



79

71

36

72

28
36



35

20

60



80

73

42

73

36
42



41

30

67



80

75

48

75

44
49



48

40

60



75

70

54

70

52
55



55

50

55



70

70

60

70

60
50



50

45

55



65

60

50

60

50
   Notes:
   a!954 national and regional projections based on FWPC estimates* that lagooning was only
    about 30 percent as prevalent as in 1968; 1959 and 1964 interpolated.
   "1968 regional and national data from Reference 4 used as a baseline for 1954—1964 and
    1971-1983 projections.
   C1971-1977 national projections assume increasing use of lagooning  to meet EPA 1977
    criterion of "best practicable technology."
   "1983 projections assume increasing use of techniques other than lagooning to meet EPA
    criterion of "best available technology."
   eRegional percentage distributions approximate the national percentages but take in
    account regional amount of lagooning as of  1968.
    No lagooning data.
                                             into
                                      37

-------
SECTION 3

      The national projections for lagooning from 1971-1983 were based
on two assumptions: (1) that through 1977 lagoons would fulfill EPA's
"best practicable technology" criterion for secondary treatment of
wastewater, and (2) that by 1983 their use will most likely be declining
as other secondary treatment techniques are adopted (eg, activated
sludge) because of EPA's  requirement for use  of "best available tech-
nology" by that date.  These  assumptions tend to be confirmed by
                  2
FWPCA estimates  of adoption rates of various secondary treatment
techniques (activated sludge, aerated lagoons,  oxidation ponds) by petro-
leum refineries from 1963 through 1977.  The  regional projections for
1971-1983 approximate the national percentages, but vary to some degree
depending upon the 1968 baseline percentages.
      Table  11 contains the estimated volume and acreage of petroleum
refinery wastewater treatment  lagoons for 1954-1983 as developed from
the data of Table 7 (total volume discharged) and Table 10 (estimated
percentage treated). Again,  the acreage figures are derived using the
algorithm described in Section  1 and assuming a 6-foot lagoon depth and
a 20-day detention time. * Unlike  the unlined sedimentation basin acreage
estimates,  however, the lagoon acreage estimates were multiplied by a
factor of 1. 5 to allow for the additional volume required for longer filling
and emptying times and the much longer detention times.
 REGIONAL POLLUTION IMPLICATIONS
      Table 9 shows that from  1954 to 1983 the regions with the greatest
 volume of petroleum refinery wastewater processed in unlined sedimenta-
tion basins  are the Western Gulf and the Delaware and Hudson regions.
As projected, the Western Gulf in 1954 accounted for 30 percent of the
national total and the Delaware and Hudson 24 percent,  and these  regions
 * Lagoon aeration is more prevalent in the petroleum refining industry
  than in the others studied; hence the assumption of a 6-foot depth for
  lagoons instead of a 4-foot depth.
                                  38

-------
                                                             PETROLEUM
   Table 11.  Volume and acreage of wastewater in lagoons in the petroleum
            refining industry,  1954-1983.°
b
Region
Delaware and Hudson
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Eastern Great Lakesc
Ohio River
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Western Great Lakes
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Upper Mississippi
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Lower Mississippi0
Missouri
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Arkansas
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Western Gulf
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
California
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
United States
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres

1954

28
14
—

3
3

4
2

2
1
—

—
—

2
1

29
15

27
14

90
45

1959

50
26
—

5
3

8
4

4
2
—

—
—

5
3

53
27

52
27

168
86

1964

77
39
—

6
3

13
7

5
3
—

13
7

8
4

90
46

76
39

277
141

1968

93
47
—

8
4

16
8

9
5
—

15
8

10
5

120
61

73
37

342
174

1971

123
63
—

11
6

34
17

10
5
—

16
8

11
6

149
76

79
40

466
238

1973

149
76
—

13
7

52
27

11
6
—

17
9

11
6

177
90

85
43

593
303

1975

181
92
—

16
8

72
37

10
5
—

17
9

11
6

207
105

82
42

729
372

1977

211
108
—

19
10

95
48

10
5
—

16
8

12
6

239
122

85
43

875
446

1983

216
110
—

20
10

96
49

10
5
—

17
9

11
6

225
115

82
42

821
419
Notes:
°From Tables 7 and 10 (based on References 1, 2, 3, and 4).
Regional figures may not add up to national totals due to independent rounding.
°No lagooning data.
show fractions of 30 and 26 percent,  respectively, for 1983.  Total
volume treated by unlined sedimentation peaks at 115 billion gallons in
1973 for the Western Gulf region and at 102 billion gallons in 1973 for the
Delaware and Hudson region.  The third and fourth largest processors
by unlined sedimentation in 1973,  when the national volume peaks at
367 billion gallons,  are the Western Great Lakes and Lower Mississippi
regions with 37 billion and 35 billion  gallons, respectively.
                                   39

-------
SECTION 3

      The Western Gulf and Delaware and Hudson regions also are pro-
jected to process the largest volumes of wastewater in lagoons through-
out the 1954-1983 period, as shown in Table 11.  The respective frac-
tions  of water lagooned in 1983 are about 27 percent and 26 percent of
the national total for these two regions, with the Western Gulf region
ranging from 29 billion gallons in 1954 to 225 billion gallons in 1983.
The 29-year total for the Western Gulf region amounts to more than
4, 000 billion gallons with the Delaware and Hudson region only slightly
less.  Also lagooning large quantities of wastewater are the Western
Great Lakes and  California regions.
      The acreage covered by the effluent is the primary indicator of
the potential threat to groundwater quality.  The areas covered by un-
lined  sedimentation and lagooning (see Tables 9 and 11) were calculated
for the petroleum refining industry in a manner similar to that described
for the pulp and paper industry except that no credit was given for ex-
pected technological advances in lagooning.  Increasing use of aeration,
for example, would tend to decrease the acreage required for lagoons,
decrease detention times for treatment, or both.   In addition, the
analysis does  not take into account regional and seasonal variations  in
detention times because of climatic effects on BOD reduction.
      Although the regional figures do not show concentrations of lagoons,
it is perhaps noteworthy that the Delaware and  Hudson region,  which
lagoons a quarter of the nation's refining industry wastewater, is also
one of the smallest industrial water use regions in the country.   At the
projected rate of growth in lagooning, during the 1977 period this region
will contain 10,800 acres—about 17 square miles—of lagoons.  Assuming
that the lagoon seepage rate of 30 inches per year adopted for this study
is reasonable, the potential exists for 27, 000 acre-feet per year of pol-
luted  water to seep underground in this region alone.
                                 40

-------
                                                            PETROLEUM



NATIONAL POLLUTION IMPLICATIONS

     Table 12  shows the volume of and area covered by wastewater in

unlined sedimentation basins and lagoons in the petroleum refining in-

dustry, at the national level.  The total wastewater discharged peaks

in 1964, declines for several years due to recirculation of cooling water,

then rises to another peak in 1983.  The volume of wastewater  treated

by unlined sedimentation peaks in 1964,  while the volume treated by

lagooning peaks in 1977. The large increase in secondary treatment

that has been  assumed causes the volume and area of lagoons to increase

substantially from 1964 to 1977, with a proportionate increase  in the

potential for wastewater to infiltrate into the ground.
 Table 12.  U.S. petroleum refining industry wastewater volume discharged, volume
          treated before discharge, and area covered by treatment processes,
          1954-1983.
Item
Total wastewater
discharged (billions
of gallons)
Volume treated in
unlined sedimentation
basins (billions of
gallons)
Area covered by
wastewater in unlined
sedimentation basins
(hundreds of acres)
Volume treated in
lagoons (billions of
gallons)
Area covered by
wastewater in
lagoons (hundreds
of acres)
1954

1,130


278


1.77


90


45

1959

1,200


363


2.31


168


86

1964

1,320


502


3.20


277


141

1968

1,220


366


2.33


342


174

1971

1,295


344


2.19


466


238

1973

1,347


367


2.34


593


303

1975

1,401


336


2.14


729


372

1977

1,458


299


1.91


875


446

1983

1,642


202


1.29


821


419

Source: Tables 7, 9 and 11 (based on References 1, 2, 3, and 4).
                                  41

-------
SECTION 3

      At the projected nationwide rates of growth and assumed seepage
rate for lagoons, by 1977 more than 111, 000 acre-feet per year of ef-
fluent might seep into the ground.  It must be emphasized, however,
that the projections used for the petroleum refining industry are not
forecasts, but serve primarily to demonstrate a methodology for the
estimation of potential groundwater impacts.  Much closer scrutiny of
industry practices  and trends would be necessary to verify the assump-
tions used.  An assumption that unlined sedimentation and lagooning
volumes will decrease throughout the projection period because of more
rapid adoption of separators, activated sludge processes, etc, may be
as defensible as the assumptions that were used.

COMPOSITION OF EFFLUENT
      Petroleum refining is a very  complicated process,  involving many
steps and subprocesses.  Little data are available in the literature as to
specific pollutants  in the wastewater from these various subprocesses.
In a survey by the  FWPCA,  it was observed that:
      Wastewater surveys from only five  refineries had pollutant
      concentration and wastewater flow data suitable for deter-
      mination of •waste loadings from individual subprocesses.
      .  .  . Because of the limited  amount of data available,
      breakdown of waste-loading on a sub-process basis was
      considered impractical and of doubtful validity.
      According to FWPCA, six pollutants commonly found in the effluent
from petroleum refineries are of consequence to groundwater quality:
      1.  Oil
      2.  Ammonia
      3.  Suspended solids
      4.  Phenols
      5.  Spent caustics (alkaline waters)
      6.  Sulfides.
                                  42

-------
                                                            PETROLEUM

      According to the EPA,    petroleum refinery waste-water also con-
tains several other pollutants,  occurring in smaller but unspecified
amounts and concentrations:
      1.  Bromine
      2.  Carbon monoxide
      3.  Boric acid
      4.  Magnesium chloride
      5.  Ammonium carbonate
      6.  Ammonium sulfide
      7.  Cyanide
      8.  Ammonium thiocyanate
      9.  Ammonium ferrocyanide.
                                  43

-------
                             SECTION 4
               PRIMARY METALS INDUSTRIES WASTEWATER
INTRODUCTION
      Although a large volume of water is used in the primary metals
industries in the United States, only about 25-30 percent of this is used
                                       2 11
for anything other than cooling purposes.  '     Therefore, the major
volume is not subjected to treatment practices that threaten groundwater
quality.  In 1968, for example, 1,430 billion gallons of wastewater under-
went primary and/or secondary treatment although 4,696 billion gallons
were  discharged.  The major pollutants of consequence to groundwater
are suspended and dissolved solids, iron, ammonia, cyanide, phenol,
oil, and the heavy metals —arsenic, cadmium, chromium, lead, and
zinc.   The latter are especially hazardous to human health.
      Sixteen of the 18 industrial water-use regions shown in Figure 1
have at least a. small amount of primary metals production.  However,
as shown in Figure 2, production is concentrated principally around the
Great Lakes and on the Eastern Seaboard. The regions with the greatest
volumes and acreage of wastewater undergoing unlined sedimentation and
lagooning are the Eastern Great Lakes, the Western Great Lakes, and
the Ohio River.  These three areas are expected to continue to treat the
largest volumes of wastewater and to have the greatest acreage in use
for wastewater treatment throughout the projection period.
      The primary references used in this effort were The Cost of Clean
Water,  Environmental Steel,    Census  of Manufactures, *  and Uni-
versity of Maryland Bureau of Business Research steel industry growth
forecasts.   The Standard Industrial Code entry used in the census
                                 44

-------
                                                        PRIMARY METALS
 ^H  5-10 Mills

      Figure 2.  Geographic distribution of steel mills in the United States.

material was  Number 33, Primary Metals Industries.  The 1967 Census
                4
of Manufactures  defines "primary metals" as the following:

      .  . .  establishments  engaged in the smelting and  refining
      of ferrous and nonferrous metals from ore, pig,  or scrap
      in the rolling, drawing, and alloying of ferrous and non-
      ferrous metals; in the manufacture of castings, forgings
      and other basic  products of ferrous and nonferrous metals;
      and in the manufacture of nails, spikes,  and insulated wire
      and cable.  This major group also includes the production
      of coke.

      Of the 1,430 billion gallons of wastewater  treated in the primary
metals  industry in 1968, approximately 90 percent, or  1,360 billion

gallons, were  treated by steel mills and blast furnace operations.

Since the Census of Manufactures was a primary data source in this

effort and since the emphasis in this  study is  on demonstrating a method-

ological approach to estimating the potential groundwater quality im-

plications,  rather than on detailed, refined results,  the figures for the
                                  45

-------
SECTION 4

overall industry of "primary metals" are assumed to be applicable to
the specific industries of steel and blast furnaces.  As in the paper and
petroleum refinery waste-water cases, 1964 and 1968 regional data on
wastewater treated and total water discharged were used as  a baseline.
Regional estimates were made for years prior to 1964 and projections
for subsequent years.
APPROACH
      Five factors were taken into account in projecting  the past and
future volume of and acreage covered by steel industry wastewater
treatment:  industry growth, variations in water usage per unit of pro-
duction output, changes  in the amount of wastewater treated  as a per-
centage of the total amount discharged by the industry, seasonality of
production, and technological changes in wastewater treatment practices
and methods.
      Industry growth estimates for 1968 through 1970 were  assumed to
be 5 percent per year.   The following University of Maryland annual
growth estimates of steel industry output were used for  the 1971 — 1983
projections:
                        Years       Percent/Year
                      1971-1973        6.03
                      1974-1975        2.69
                      1976-1978         1.25
                      1979-1983        0.67
      The second projection factor, water usage per unit of output, was
assumed to increase by 10 percent over the industry growth  projections
for 1977-1983.  This increase is  based on the introduction of new pro-
cess  technologies that require more water per unit output than present
            2 11
techniques.  '     The baseline water discharge figures for 1964 and
 1968, the regional estimates based on national totals for 1959 and 1954,
and the regional and national projections for 1971-1983  are given in
 Table 13.

                                  46

-------
                                                                 PRIMARY METALS
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                                        47

-------
SECTION 4


      In estimating the quantities of wastewater discharged and treated
by the industry from 1954—1983, it was assumed, based on the actual
national share receiving treatment in 1964 and  1968 and estimates from

References 2  and 11, that only 30 percent of the industry's wastewater
would require treatment for other than thermal pollution in order to
comply with EPA regulations.    Thus, like the petroleum refining indus-
try, no dramatic increases are anticipated in amount of wastewater
treated in order  to meet EPA requirements.  While some regions showed
                                                3  4
more than 30  percent treatment in 1964 and 1968,  '   this could be  attri-
butable to lack of selectivity in treatment or reporting of treatment.

      Steel production schedules appear to be constant throughout the
calendar year; therefore,  basin and lagoon capacities for an even flow
of production  and a 300-day-per-year work schedule were assumed.

      The fifth factor, technological  changes in wastewater treatment
practices and methods, incorporated various estimates by EPA and
the Council on Economic  Priorities   concerning the prevalence of use
of unlined basins and lagoons for primary and  secondary wastewater
treatment throughout the  1954-1983 projection period.  In general, un-
lined basin primary treatment is viewed as a declining percentage of
the total steel industry primary treatment from 1959 to the end of the
projection period.  Percentage of biological treatment by lagooning is
viewed as peaking in the mid-1970s and then declining as more advanced
methods are adopted.

VOLUME PROJECTIONS
Unlined Sedimentation Basins

      Based on trends indicated for 1964 in Cost of Clean Water,   60
percent of the total wastewater treated was estimated to have received
 *References 2 and 11 estimate that only 25 percent requires treatment;
  data in References 3 and 4 indicate national averages of 27 percent and
  30 percent receiving treatment in 1964 and 1968.
                                  48

-------
Table 14.  Percentages of total discharged primary metals  industries wastewater receiving primary treatment and estimated
           percentages of primary treatment in unlined sedimentation basins,  1954—1983.
Region
New England
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Delaware and Hudson
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Chesapeake Bay
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Eastern Great Lakes
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Ohio River
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Tennessee
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Southeast
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Western Great Lakes
primary treatment %
% primary in unltned basins
Upper Mississippi
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Missouri
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Arkansas
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Western Gulf
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Colorado Basin
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Cal ifornla
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
Pacific Northwest
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
United States
primary treatment %
% primary in unlined basins
1954°

1
70

8
70

7
70

7
70

5
70

15
70

8
70

10
70

13
70

7
70

8
70

7
70

3
70

20
70

10
70

7
70
1959°

2
70

15
70

14
70

15
70

9
70

31
70

16
70

20
70

26
70

15
70

17
70

14
70

7
70

40
70

21
70

15
70
1964

<1
60

33
60
L
27b
60

34
60

12
60

63
60

48
60

33
60

84
60

27b
60

27b
60

19
60

14
60

90
60

50
60

27
60
1968

6
60

30
60

30
60

26
60

25
60

64
60

29
60

46
60

33
60

30b
60

41
60

9
60

<1
60

70
60

33
60

30
60
1971

12
55

30
55

30
55

27
55

27
55

64
55

30
55

46
55

33
55

30
55

41
55

14
55

7
55

70
55

33
55

31C
55
1973

18
50

30
50

30
50

28
50

28
50

64
50

30
50

46
50

33
50

30
50

41
50

19
50

15
50

70
50

33
50

32C
50
1975

24
45

30
45

30
45

29
45

29
45

64
45

30
45

46
45

33
45

30
45

41
45

25
45

20
45

70
45

33
45

33C
45
1977

30
40

30
40

30
40

30
40

30
40

64
40

30
40

46
40

33
40

30
40

41
40

30
40

30
40

70
40

33
40

33C
40
1983

30
25

30
25

30
25

30
25

30
25

64
25

30
25

46
25

33
25

30
25

41
25

30
25

30
25

70
25

33
25

34C
25
Notes:
Regional percentages of total discharge receiving primary treatment in 1954 and 1959 based on fractions of national
total discharge receiving primary treatment in 1954, 1959, 1964, and 1968 (ie, 1959 regional fraction = 1/2[(1964
+ 1968J/2]; 1954 regional total - 1/41(1964 + 1968J/21 ).
Not reported; assumed to be same fraction as national total.
Weighted national averages (% primary treatment x discharge vo ume summed by year for all regions and divided by
total national discharge volume).
                                                                                                                        o

-------
Table 15. Volume of wastewater (billions of gallons) receiving primary treatment in
          primary mefaJs industries and acreage covered, 1954—1983.
                                                                               unlined sedimentation basins in the
Q
Region
New England
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Delaware and Hudson
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres'3
Chesapeake Bay
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Eastern Great Lakes
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Ohio River
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres0
Tennessee
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Southeast
billions of gallons
i i i r b
Western Great Lakes
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Upper Mississippi
bil lions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Missouri
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Arkansas
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Western Gulf
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Colorado Basin
billions of gallons
hundreds of acresb
California
billions of gal Ions
hundreds of acres
Pacific Northwest
bil lions of gal Ions
hundreds of acres^
United States
bl Mions of gallons
hundreds of acres
1954

-
-

14
0.09

9
0.06

34
0.22

46
0.30

1
<0.01

4
0 03

51
0.33

7
0.05

<1
-

1
<0.01

3
0.02

-
-

1
<0.01

3
0.02

174
1.12
1959

<]
-

26
0.17

20
0.13

69
0.44

78
0.50

2
0.01

6
0. 04

99
0.63

13
0.08

1
<0.01

3
0.02

6
0.04

-
-

3
0.02

6
0.04

332
2.12
1964

<1
-

55
0.35

56
0.36

149
0.95

160
1.02

9
0.06

13
0. 08

185
1.18

50
0.32

2
0.01

4
0.03

16
0.10

<1
-

5
0.03

12
0.08

717
4.57
1968

1
<0.01

52
0.33

59
0.38

126
0.80

206
1.31

8
0.05

14
0.09

326
2.08

24
0.15

4
0.03

7
0.05

9
0.06

-
-

4
0.03

11
0.07

851
5.43
1971

3
0.02

54
0.34

62
0.40

141
0.90

237
1.51

9
0.06

15
0. 10

346
2.21

25
0.16

4
0.03

8
0.05

14
0.09

<1
-

4
0.03

12
0.08

934
5.96
1973

4
0.03

56
0.36

64
0.41

150
0.96

252
1.61

10
0.06

16
0. 10

354
2.26

26
0.17

4
0.03

8
0.05

20
0.13

1
<0.01

5
0.03

12
0.08

982
6.26
1975

5
0.03

53
0.34

60
0.38

147
0.94

247
1.58

9
0.06

14
0. 09

335
2.14

24
0.15

4
0.03

7
0.05

25
0.16

1
<0.01

5
0.03

11
0.07

947
6.04
1977

6
0.04

53
0.34

60
0.38

152
0.97

256
1.63

9
0.06

14
0.09

336
2.14

24
0.15

4
0.03

7
0.05

30
0.19

2
0.01

5
0.03

11
0.07

969
6.18
1983

4
0.03

35
0.22

40
0.26

100
0.64

166
1.06

6
0.04

10
0.06

220
1.40

16
0.10

2
0.01

5
0.03

20
0.13

1
<0.01

3
0.02

6
0.04

634
4.04
Notes:
aRegional figures may not add up to national totals due to rounding.
'•'Acreage based on algorithm given in Section 1.

-------
SECTION 4

sedimentation basins of 8 feet and a detention time of one-half day, and
are calculated using the algorithm described in Section 1.
Lagoons
      Reference 4 served as the primary source of volume estimates for
waste-water secondary biological treatment by lagoontng.  This document
indicated that of 1,431 billion gallons  of waste-water undergoing treatment
in 1968 before discharge in the  primary metals industry,  352 billion gal-
lons, or 25 percent, received treatment in lagoons.
      A comparison of total wastewater discharged, and amount treated
before discharge for 1964 and 1968 (see Table 13) shows a relatively small
percentage increase —only about 3 percent—for these four years.  Based
on this observation, the 1964 percentage  rate of lagoon BOD treatment of
treatable wastewater was assumed to  be 80 percent of that of the 1968
rate for  each region.  This  same percentage was assumed for 1959 and
1954 also, although it could easily have been lower.  However, the vol-
ume of water treated before  discharge for 1959 -was only half that of 1964,
and for 1954 only one-quarter that of 1964, so the estimate,  even if high,
is probably of little consequence to the overall projection.
      Reference 2 estimates that in 1968,  10 percent of the steel industry
plants treated their waste-water  biologically,  with the percentage increas-
ing to 15 percent in 1972 and 20 percent in 1977.  These percentages -were
taken to be roughly equivalent to percentages of total wastewater treated
biologically and,.based upon the estimate that only 25 to 30 percent of the
total wastewater requires treatment, -were assumed to be equivalent to
40 percent, 60 percent,  and  80 percent biological treatment of treatable
wastewater. However, because the 80 percent secondary treatment esti-
mate for 1977 falls short of EPA requirements, 80 percent-was assumed
to be achieved by 1975, with 100 percent treatment of treatable wastewater
occurring by 1977.  The resulting biological treatment percentage projec-
tions for lagooning  are given in  Table  16.
                                 52

-------
                                                            PRIMARY METALS
Table 17.  Volume and acreage of wastewater in lagoons in the primary metals indus-
          tries,  1954-1983.
Region
New England
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Delaware and Hudson
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Chesapeake Bay
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Eastern Great Lakes
bi Ilions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Ohio River
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Tennessee
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Southeast
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Western Great Lakes
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Upper Mississippi
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Missouri
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Arkansas
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Western Gulf
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Colorado Basin
billions of gal Ions
hundreds of acres
California
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
Pacific Northwest
billions of gal Ions
hundreds of acres
United States
billions of gallons
hundreds of acres
1954

-
-

13
10

3
2

8
6

8
6

<1
-

-
—

12
9

6
5

-
-

-
-

1
1

-
-

-
-

1
1

46
35
1959

-
-

23
18

7
5

17
13

13
10

1
1

1
1

24
18

11
8

-
-

<1
-

2
2

-
-

-
-

2
2

96
73
1964

-
-

57
44

23
18

42
32

21
16

6
5

2
2

52
40

49
37

1
1

1
1

5
4

-
-
'
2
2

4
3

221
169
1968

-
-

67
51

29
22

45
34

52
40

7
5

3
2

114
87

29
22

2
2

3
2

4
3

-
-

2
2

5
4

352
269
1971

2
2

77
59

50
38

97
74

136
104

9
7

9
7

340
260

30
23

3
2

6
5

10
8

-
-

3
2

8
6

657
503
1973

4
3

87
67

72
54

156
119

261
200

12
9

16
12

381
292

37
28

4
3

9
7

22
17

1
<1

5
4

13
10

998
764
1975

8
6

92
70

93
71

228
174

384
294

14
11

23
18

522
399

39
30

6
5

11
8

39
30

2
2

7
5

18
14

1,489
1,139
1977

9
5

80
44

91
50

231
127

384
212

13
7

22
12

504
278

36
21

5
3

11
6

45
25

3
2

6
3

17
9

1,440
793
1983

6
2

56
21

63
24

159
61

268
103

9
3

9
6

352
135

25
10

4
2

7
3

32
12

2
1

4
2

12
5

1,029
394
Note:
Regional figures may not add up to national totals.
                                    55

-------
 SECTION 4

all of the projected years except for 1983, when the ratio changes to
45 percent.
      Although second in wastewater discharged, the largest of the three
in terms of wastewater receiving primary treatment is the Western Great
Lakes region (see Table 15).  This region is projected to incur a peak
wasteload for unlined sedimentation basin treatment in 1973, with basins
covering 226 acres processing 354 billion gallons of wastewater.  The
next largest, the Ohio River region, peaks in 1977 at 163 acres of basins
processing 256 billion gallons of wastewater,  while the third largest,  the
Eastern Great Lakes region, peaks at 97 acres of basins and 152 billion
gallons of wastewater in the same year.   During their peak years,  the
fractions of the national total of primary metal industries  unlined basins
for  these three regions are Western Great Lakes 36 percent, Ohio River
26 percent, and Eastern Great Lakes 16 percent.   From 1954 to its peak
year of  1973, the Western Great Lakes region is projected to have a seven-
fold increase in unlined basin acreage, from 33 acres to 226 acres.  All
the  other primary metals industries regions  exhibit substantial increases
in acreage as well.
      A similar situation is projected for wastewater secondary process-
ing  in lagoons.  During the Western Great Lakes region's  peak  year of
1975, Table 17 shows 39, 900 acres of lagoons. The Ohio  River region
peaks at 29,400 acres in  1975 and the Eastern Great Lakes region at
17,400 acres in the same year. The balance of the regions show areas
totaling 27,200 acres for 1975.
      At the infiltration levels  for unlined basins and lagoons of 30 inches
per year assumed for this study, the Western  Great Lakes region has in
its peak year a groundwater  pollution potential of 565 acre-feet of waste-
water seepage from its unlined sedimentation basins and nearly 100,000
acre-feet from its lagoons.  In their peak years, the Ohio River region
has an infiltration potential of 73, 900 acre-feet of wastewater and the
                                  56

-------
                                                        PRIMARY METALS


Eastern Great Lakes region 43, 700 acre-feet.  At the projected volumes
and acreages of unlined basin and lagoon wastewater treatment, over the
29-year projection period the Western Great Lakes region,  which covers
about 2 percent of the continental United States land area, could absorb
more than 1  million acre-feet of wastewater through subsurface infiltration.
NATIONAL POLLUTION IMPLICATIONS
      Table  18 shows the nationwide volumes of wastewater and unlined
basin and lagoon acreages for the primary metals industries over the
1954—1983 projection period.  The peak year for  volume treated and area
covered by wastewater in unlined basins and lagoons is projected to  occur
in 1975, with primary treatment of 947 billion gallons, secondary treat-
ment of 1,489 billion gallons, and an area coverage of 114,500 acres.
      More likely of  significance to groundwater pollution than these fig-
ures, however, which are so aggregated as to have their greatest value
in demonstrating a methodological approach, is the fact that about 75
percent of the total volume and coverage occurs in concentrated areas
of only three midwest regions of relatively limited extent.   Given the
assumed industry growth rates, treatment practices, industry distribu-
tion,  and absorption rates, over the 29-year  projection period these areas
are subject to wastewater subsurface infiltration  of up to 2.25 million
acre-feet with its long-term groundwater pollution implications.
COMPOSITION OF EFFLUENT
      Several subprocesses of the primary metals industries generate
wastewaters  which receive primary and secondary treatment.  The  major
subprocesses and their wastewater pollutants for the iron and steel  indus-
try, which account for about 90 percent of the primary metals industries,
are identified in Table  19.  Table 20 gives  average concentrations of
most of the pollutants listed in Table 19.
                                  57

-------
SECTION 4
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                                                         PRIMARY METALS
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                                  59

-------
SECTION 4
   Table 20.  Average pollutant concentrations in steel industry sedimentation
             basin and lagoon effluents (pounds per gallon).*3
Pollutant
Dissolved and/or
suspended solids
Iron
Ammonia
Oil
Cyanide
Zinc
Fluoride
Phenol
Chromium
Arsenic

Cadmium
Lead
Pickling sul fates
Sedimentation basins
6.9 x 10~4
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2.5 x 10"5

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3.5 x 10"6


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7.55x 10"7

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3.3x 10"5
6. Ox 10"5
4o67x 10"5


2.33x 10"6
5.9 x 10~7
8.35x 10"8
-8
1.35x 10

1.60x 10~2
Note:
Data from References 2 and 1 1 .
                                       60

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                               SECTION 5
                THE PHOSPHATE ROCK MINING INDUSTRY


INTRODUCTION
      The approach used for the phosphate mining industry departs from
that employed for the other three was tew at er-pro due ing industries exam-
ined.  The analysis is more specific, because more detailed data  were
available,  and because it is concerned with a single wastewater treatment
practice in one limited area.  Slime ponds are the treatment process and
the area is the western part of Polk County, Central Florida, where 64
percent of the phosphate rock production of the United States originated
in 1967.    This analysis was made even more specific by concentrating
on the Noralyn mining operation of International Mineral and Chemical
Corporation, since Noralyn was considered typical of mining operations
in the rest of the county.
      The analysis also differs from those of the other three industries
in that it deals with a much less complex production process.  Phosphate
rock is  mined by shooting hydraulic guns  at the phosphate matrix,  thereby
breaking it up.  Through the use of more  water the phosphate is separated
from  the clay, sand tailings, and other soil components.  The waste pro-
ducts from the matrix, coupled with the water used to break it up  and  to
separate the phosphate, form a waste slime which must be settled.  The
resultant sludge must  then be disposed of.  Slime ponds of two types —
"active" and "inactive" —are used for this purpose.  Active ponds  receive
slimy wastewaters and desedimented water is  extracted from them for
reuse.  The only function of the inactive ponds is the disposal of slime;
the wastewater is simply allowed to remain in them, resulting in a buildup
                                  61

-------
SECTION 5
of sedimentation.  Since the inactive ponds do not dry up, both types of
ponds present potential for groundwater pollution.
METHOD OF ANALYSIS
      The Noralyn operation comprises approximately 20 percent of Polk
County's phosphate production.  Noralyn and the other major phosphate
rock mining operations in Polk County are shown in Figure 3.  The EPA
and the U.S. Bureau of Mines, which consider the Noralyn operation typi-
cal of the other mining operations in the county, have estimated that
Noralyn's production of slimy wastewater and use of acreage for its treat-
ment is about 20 percent of Polk County's phosphate  operations. A com-
parison of the production output and slime treatment practices at Noralyn
and in Polk County as a whole is given in Table 21.   The production capacity
Table 21.  Phosphate rock slime ponds at the Noralyn operation, Bonnie, Polk County,
         Florida and all Polk County, Florida phosphate plants (1967).
Item
Phosphate rock production capacity
(millions of tons)
Growth projection (% per year)
Slime production pec year (acre-feet)
Depth of ponds (feet)
Slime pond wastewater acreage0
Area per pond
Active ponds
Inactive ponds
Total ponds
Additional pond area per year
Noralyn operation
6°
(20% of Polk County)
5
16,000
30-40
400
2,000
1,600
3,600
200
Polk County
30.4°
(64% of United
States)
5
80, 000
30-40
400
10,000
8,000
18,000
1,000
Notes:
aReference 13.
"Reference 1.
From Reference 14.
                                  62

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                                                         PHOSPHATE
                   - PHOSPHATE OP1RATION
                 IND - INDUSTRV  RAILROAD
                 AC I  - ATLANTIC COAST I INt  RAILROAD
                 SAL- St ABOARD AIR L INt RAILROAD
Figure 3.   Location map of Noralyn operations.
                       63

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SECTION 5


given in the table is from EPA,   while the yearly output of slime for Nora-
                                                14
lyn is taken from a U.S. Bureau of Mines report.    The county-wide slime-
production estimates are derived from the Bureau of Mines figures for
Noralyn slime production.
      The Bureau of Mines estimates that the typical area per slime pond
— including both active and inactive ponds —at Noralyn is 400 acres; this
figure was assumed to also be  applicable to the other operations in Polk
County.  Total active pond area at Noralyn was estimated by the Bureau
of Mines to be 2, 000 acres.  A map of the Noralyn operation indicates that
in 1967 inactive ponds occupied about 80 percent as much area as the active
ponds, or 1,600 acres.  This ratio was assumed to be typical of the other
phosphate mines in Polk County. Thus, for 1967,  the base year of the
Bureau of Mines report, county-wide acreage of slime ponds was estimated
to be 10,000 acres  for active ponds and 8,000 acres for inactive ponds.
      The Bureau of Mines also estimates that one new 400-acre pond is
added at Noralyn every two years,  making for an annual increase of 200
acres in ponds at Noralyn and  1,000 acres county-wide.  This  annual in-
crease in acreage was assumed to be applicable to the years 1966—1970.
However, aside from the need  to build new ponds to accommodate the then-
current level of production as older ponds go out of service, the growth of
the industry itself must be considered as well.  Reference 1 projects annual
growth of the phosphate rock mining industry at about 5 percent per year.
                                                                   12  13
Since 1970 is the last year for  which production figures were obtained,   '
this growth rate is  reflected  in the  1971 — 1983 projections of Table 22.
                    13
      EPA estimates   of the production capacities of U.S. phosphate mines
were used to derive the 1966 — 1970  production of Polk County from Bureau
of the Census    national production figures.  The EPA estimates indicate
that in 1967 and 1968 Polk County accounted for about 64 percent of the pro-
duction capacity of  the United States, and in 1969 and 1970 about 67 percent.
It was assumed that because  of normal market competition,  actual Polk
                                   64

-------
                                                            PHOSPHATE
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                                    65

-------
SECTION 5


County production was proportional to these percentages, ie, 64 percent
and 67 percent of the total U.S.  production.  The 67 percent production
figure was also used to project Polk County's 1971-1983 phosphate
production.
      The past and projected production of the Noralyn operation was de-
rived as a residual of Polk County's production, based on the EPA and
Bureau of Mines estimates that Noralyn represents 20 percent of the
county's production.  The derived 1967 Noralyn phosphate production of
5. 1 million tons and the Bureau of Mines  estimated average annual addi-
tion of 200 acres of  slime ponds to the Noralyn operation yielded a slime
pond area factor of 39. 2 acres per million tons of phosphate production.
This factor was used to calculate the cumulative  1971-1983 slime pond
acreages for both the county and Noralyn. It was also used to calculate
the annual additional slime pond acreages shown for national production.
      The national slime pond area figures, of which only about one-third
represent phosphate production outside Polk County,  carry with them a
further assumption.  The slime ponds of  the Noralyn operation at Bonnie,
Florida are estimated by the Bureau of Mines to be about 40 feet deep and
their  restraining dams  are built to conform to Bureau of Mines specifica-
tions.  If phosphate  slime ponds elsewhere in Florida and other parts of
the country conform to  the same specifications, based on the Polk County
phosphate rock production rate of about 67 percent of the annual national
total, total U.S. slime  pond coverage would approximate 31,000 acres in
1970 and 60,000 acres by 1983,  assuming that mines outside Polk County
have the same ratio of active to inactive ponds as the  Polk County mines.

COMPOSITION AND CONCENTRATION
OF SLIME EFFLUENT
      The suspended solids  content of wastewater in slime ponds, as -well
as the mineralogic and chemical composition of these solids, are of poten-
tial consequence to groundwater quality.  The slime enters the ponds at a
solids concentration of 4 to 5 percent and quickly  settles to 10 to 15 percent.
                                   66

-------
SECTION 5
       Table 23.  Approximate mineralogic and chemical composition of
                 phosphate slime solids.0
Mineralogic weight composition
Carbonate fluorapatite
Quartz
Montmorillonite
Attapulgite
Wave Mite
Feldspar
Heavy minerals
Dolomite
Miscellaneous
Chemical
composition
P2°5
Si02
Fe2°3
A,203 .
CaO
MgO
C°2
F
LOI (1,OOOC)
BPL
Percent
20-25
30-35
20-25
5-10
4-6
2-3
2-3
1-2
0-1
Typical analyses
9.06
45.68
3.98
8.51
14.00
1.13
0.80
0.87
10.60
19.88
Range
9-17
31-46
3-7
6-18
14-23
1-2
0-1
0-1
9-16
19-37
Note:
aFrom Reference 14.
                                       67

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                                                           PHOSPHATE


Further concentration, even after years of settling, never exceeds 25 to
35 percent solids.  Therefore, a solids concentration in slime of 10 per-
cent was assumed for active ponds,  and 30 percent for inactive ponds.
The particular ponds at Noralyn contain an average of about 20 percent
                           14
solids content in the slime.    Their mineralogic and chemical composi-
tion is given in Table 23.
      The infiltration rate of slime waste-water ponds  into underlying
groundwater aquifers is assumed to be the same as that described for the
other industries' sedimentation basins and lagoons: 30  inches per year.
On this basis, Polk County is presently subject to underground infiltration
of about 64,000  acre-feet of water per year from its  slime ponds.  At the
projected rate of industry growth, the infiltration in Polk County alone
could approximate 100, 000  acre-feet per year by 1983.  On a national
basis, the infiltration may approach 150, 000 acre-feet per year  by 1983,
with about 75 percent of this in Polk County and other parts of Florida,
assuming that the industry production distribution does not change greatly.
                                  68

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                              SECTION 6
                AGRICULTURAL FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION
INTRODUCTION
      National fertilizer consumption increased 1.8 times during the 16-
year period from 1954, when 22 million tons were consumed, to 1970,
when 40 million tons were consumed. A similar margin of growth is ex-
pected between 1970 and 1985, when consumption of 74 million tons is
anticipated.  Harvested cropland treated with fertilizer shows a less dra-
matic increase over the same time  span, as 123 million acres were fer-
tilized in  1954,  153 million acres in 1970, and  180 million acres are anti-
cipated in 1985.  Per-acre application of fertilizer to fertilized harvested
cropland is  expected to more than double during the 31-year  period between
1954, when  0. 18 tons were applied per fertilized acre, and 1985, when 0. 41
tons per acre are anticipated. Currently, approximately one-quarter of
a ton per  fertilized acre is the average volume  applied in the United
States.
      The Continental United States  (excluding Alaska) is divided by the
U.S.  Bureau of the Census into the  nine fertilizer consumption regions
shown in Figure 4.  Among these nine regions the largest historical and
projected consumers of fertilizer and fertilizers of harvested cropland
are the South Atlantic region, the East North Central region,  and the
West North  Central region.  The East and West North Central regions
are also the largest holders  of cropland in corn and wheat, which occupy
more fertilized acreage than any other crops in the country.   The South
Atlantic region, the Pacific  region,  and the  New England region apply the
greatest volumes of fertilizer per acre fertilized.
                                  69

-------
SECTION 6
      SOURCE- U.S. Bureau of Census, 19M
           Figure 4.  Fertilizer-consuming regions of the United States.
      The most common constituent of commercial fertilizer consumed
in the United States is  nitrogen.  Also present in large  proportions are
phosphorus and potash, and in lesser quantities  several metals, sulfur,
calcium sulfate, boron, and sulfuric acid.
COMPOSITION  OF COMMERCIAL FERTILIZERS
      Table 24 is taken from a United States Department of Agriculture
publication, Commercial Fertilizers, Consumption in the United States.
The table lists the 1969 and 1970 U.S. consumption and the 1970 regional
consumption of the five most common materials found in commercial fer-
tilizers,  and mixtures of these materials.  Mixtures, -which are made up
primarily of nitrogen,  phosphate and potash materials,  accounted for
over one-half  of total consumption,  while "phosphate materials" and "po-
tash materials" individually comprised approximately 7 percent and 6
percent,  respectively.  Nitrogen materials comprised approximately 28
percent of total consumption,  making it the most widely used individual
15
                                   70

-------
                                                                           FERTILIZERS
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                                           71

-------
 SECTION 7

fertilizer material of the five listed in the table.  The three primary
nutrient materials —nitrogen, phosphates and potash—individually and in
mixtures accounted for approximately 95 percent of fertilizer consump-
tion in the  country in 1969 and 1970.
      The other two fertilizer materials, "natural organic materials" and
"secondary micronutrient materials, " accounted for  1.4 percent and 3.4
percent, respectively,  of national consumption in 1969 and 1970.
ANALYTICAL APPROACH
Fertilizer Consumption
      A straightforward approach was used in estimating fertilizer con-
sumption for the projection period.  Historical (1954-1970) data were
taken from USDA's Agricultural Statistics.    Nonagricultural uses of
commercial fertilizer were ignored in the analysis because no data on
such consumption could be found.  Projected yearly national fertilizer
consumption was assumed to be equal to yearly national fertilizer indus-
try production,  which was projected using the University of Maryland
Bureau of Business and Economic Research industry  output forecasts.
These forecasts project the  following output growth rates for  the national
fertilizer industry:
                        Period           Percent/Year
                      1971-1975              5.11
                      1976-1980              3.86
                      1981-1985              3. 17
Projected  1971-1985 regional fertilizer consumption  estimates were de-
rived by assuming that the regional distribution of total national fertilizer
consumption that existed in 1970 would remain unchanged through 1985.
The 1970 ratio of fertilized harvested cropland acreage to nonfertilized
harvested cropland acreage in each region was assumed to represent the
*"Natural organic materials" used were equal to only about 7 to 8 percent
 of the manure produced in beef cattle feedlots during the same period
 (see Section 7).
                                 72

-------
                                                            FERTILIZERS

maximum percentage that would benefit from fertilization, and thus re-
main unchanged through the 1971-1985 projection period.  While this
assumption may be arguable,  it has little effect on the methodology em-
ployed.  Projected ratios of nonfertilized to fertilized cropland could
easily  be varied for later years if available data indicated changing trends.
Fertilized Harvested Cropland Acreage
     Data on the number of acres  that were treated by fertilizers  in
1954-1964 were taken directly from  1959 United States Census of Agricul-
    17                                             18
ture   and 1964 United States Census of Agriculture.    Regional data for
1969 were  not available, but the national figure for  that year was obtained
from Statistical Abstracts,  1972   and the  regional distribution was as-
sumed to be the same  as that  for 1964.  The regional and national acreage
figures for these years are given in Table 25.
     Data for fertilized harvested cropland acreage for years subsequent
to 1969 were not available,  so projections for  1970-1985 were made using
a series of three steps.  The  first  step was to obtain the number of acres
in total harvested cropland acreage,  as shown in  Table 26.  The  figures
in Table 26 for 1975 to 1985 result from an assumption that essentially all
of the acreage in idle cropland in 1964-1969 will  be  put to use as harvested
cropland by 1975 because of population increases  and national policies aimed
at increased  food production.   As an example, the 1975 — 1985 harvested
cropland acreage in Table 26  for the East North Central region is approxi-
mated  as 64 million acres, based upon the  following historical data from
the table:
                                             Acreage
         C ropland                       1964         1969
         Harvested                    56,400,000  54,000,000
         Idle                           8,420,000  10,400,000
         Total                        64,820,000  64,400,000
                                  73

-------
SECTION 6
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                                          74

-------
                                                             FERTILIZERS
Table 26.  U.S. cropland acreage harvested and cropland acreage idle or in cover
          crops,  1954-1985 (thousands of acres).0
Region
New England
harvested
idle
Middle Atlantic
harvested
idle
South Atlantic
harvested
idle
E.N. Central
harvested
idle
W.N. Central
harvested
idle
E.S. Central
harvested
idle
W.S. Central
harvested
idle
Mountain
harvested
idle
Pacific
harvested
idle
United States
harvested
idle
1954b

3,050
NA

12,000
NA

23, 400
NA

61,200
NA

136,000
NA

20,000
NA

43,900
NA

23, 700
NA

14,600
NA

337,000
19,000
1959°

2,380
NA

11,000
NA

21,400
NA

60,400
NA

131,000
NA

18,100
NA

41,800
NA
24,800
24, 800
NA

14,300
NA

325,000
33, 000
1964d

2,060
398

10,000
1,850

18,500
4,920

56,400
8,420

118,000
18,000

15,200
4,160

37,300
7,410

22,500
4,710

13,200
1,760

293, 000
51,600
1969e

1,640
226

9,070
1,480

20,400
4,650

54,000
10,400

114,000
19, 100

15,300
4,240

38,700
6,320

34, 600
2,788

13,700
1,440

287, 000
50,700
1970f

1,610
NA

9,140
NA

17,000
NA

54,200
NA

116,000
NA

15,300
NA

38,100
NA

23,900
NA

13,600
NA

288, 000
NA
19759

2,000
-

11,000
-

23, 000
-

64,000
-

132,000
-

20,000
-

45,000
-

26,000
-

15,000
-

338, 000
-
19809

2,000
-

11,000
-

23,000
-

64,000
-

132,000
-

20,000
-

45,000
-

26,000
-

15,000
-

338, 000
-
19859

2,000
-

11,000
-

23,000
-

64,000
-

132,000
-

20,000
-

45,000
-

26,000
-

15,000
-

338, 000
-
Notes:
°For 59 principal crops CUSDA, 197016
b 16 f 16
USDA, 1955 USDA, 1972
°USDA, 1961 91975-1985 projections assume that all idle crop-
NA N t A '1 bl 'anc' acre°9e becomes harvested acreage by 1975.
      The second step in obtaining the fertilized acreage for  1970 through
 1985 was to calculate the ratio of fertilized harvested cropland acreage to
 total harvested cropland acreage,  as  shown in Table 27,  for  1954 through
 1969-  Although some modifications could be made for 1970-1985 regional
                                    75

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SECTION 6

 Table 27. Ratios of fertilized harvested cropland acreage to total harvested cropland
          acreage by region, 1954—1985.
Region
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East North Central
West North Central
East South Central
West South Central
Mountain
Pacific
United States
1954°
.28
.51
.89
.51
.19
.76
.27
.14
.48
.36
1959°
.42
.52
.87
.53
.27
.71
.32
.20
.65
.41
1964°
.47
.53
.93
.59
.37
.76
.55
.29
.84
.52
1969a
.61
.60
.87
.63
.40
.78
.55
.29
,84
.54
1970b
.61
.60
.87
.63
.40
.78
.55
.29
.84
.54
1975b
.61
.60
.87
.63
.40
.78
.55
.29
.84
.54
1980b
.61
.60
.87
.63
.40
.78
.55
.29
.84
.54
1985**
.61
.60
.87
.63
.40
.78
.55
.29
.84
.54
Notes:
Ratios based on Tables 25 and 26.
Projections assume that 1969 ratio remains unchanged.
 trends in cropland fertilization from the 1954—1969 ratios, for this analysis
 it was assumed that the 1970—1985  ratio of fertilized to unfertilized crop-
 lands would remain  the same as for 1969.
       The final step was to multiply the ratios of Table 27 by the projected
 number of acres in total harvested  cropland for 1970—1985 for each region.
 This yielded the projected number of acres of fertilized harvested cropland
 for 1970-1985 given in Table 25.
 REGIONAL CONSUMPTION OF FERTILIZERS
       Table 28 shows  regional fertilizer consumption for 1954-1985.  The
 consumption figures for 1954 through 1970 are census  data.    The  1975,
 1980, and 1985 figures are projections based on fertilizer industry growth
 rates from Reference 1 and 1970 regional  distributions of consumption.
                                   76

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                                                              FERTILIZERS
  Table 28.  Fertilizer consumption in the United States by region,  1954—1985
           (thousands of tons).
Region
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
E.N. Central
W. N. Central
E.S. Central
W.S. Central
Mountain
Pacific
United States
1954°
440
1,630
6,580
4,520
2,180
2,940
1,370
425
2,200
22,300
1959b
409
1,500
6,620
4,780
2,870
2,960
1,530
588
3,240
24, 500
1964°
458
1,530
7,230
6,130
4,850
3,080
2,730
923
3,990
30, 900
1969d
359
1,500
7,750
8,240
8,560
3,290
4,010
1,430
4,100
39,200
1970d
360
1,570
7,780
8,760
9,120
3,360
4,170
1,500
4,220
40,800
1975e
460
2,010
9,970
11,230
11,690
4,310
5,350
1,920
5,410
52, 300
1980e
560
2,440
12,070
13,600
14,150
5,210
6,470
2,330
6,550
63, 300
1985e
660
2,860
14, 190
16,000
16,630
6,130
7,600
2,740
7,700
74,400
Notes:
°USDA, 195616
bUSDA, 1961 16
CUSDA, 196616
dUSDA, 197216
Incorporates fertilizer industry growth projections from Reference 1; regional distribution
based on 1970 distribution.
As the table indicates, the South Atlantic region,  the East North Central
region, and the West North Central region have used, and are expected to
use, more tonnage of fertilizer from 1964 to  1985 than any of the other
six regions.   Of these three, the West North  Central region had  the highest
consumption level in 1970 and is projected to  maintain that status through
1985.
      As may be noted from Table 25, the East and West North Central
regions have the largest shares  of fertilized acreage in the country, and
the South Atlantic region the fourth largest.   The two tables appear to
show a fairly consistent,  positive relationship between the volume  of fer-
tilizer consumed in a  given region and the cropland acreage treated with
                                  77

-------
SECTION 6
fertilizer.  The smallest consumer of fertilizer, the New England region,
has the least fertilized acreage, while the second and third smallest con-
sumers, the Mountain region and the Middle Atlantic region, also have
the second and third fewest fertilized acres.  There is  some variation
within the remaining four regions, but the relationship  between the two
variables is generally positive.
      Table 29 shows fertilizer application per fertilized cropland acre
for 1954-1985.  The application figures are derived by dividing past and
projected tonnage for each region (Table 28) by the acreage treated (Table
25).   Nationwide,  per-acre application increased by 50 percent between
1954 and  1970.  As projected, a 50 percent  increase over  1970 per-acre
fertilized application occurs by 1985.  The heaviest per-acre usage occurs
in the  South Atlantic region with 0.68 ton per acre projected for 1985.  The
second heaviest application—0. 57 ton per fertilized acre—is projected for
the Pacific  and New England regions in the same year.   The West South
Central region shows the lowest per-acre application—0. 30 ton— for 1985.

 Table 29. Fertilizer application per fertilized cropland acre, 1954—1985 (tons).
Region
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East North Central
West North Central
East South Central
West South Central
Mountain
Pacific
United States
1954
.51
.27
.31
.15
.08
.19
.12
.13
.32
.18
1959
.41
.26
.35
.15
.08
.23
.12
.12
.35
.18
1964
.48
.29
.42
.19
.11
.27
.13
.14
.36
.20
1969
.36
.27
.44
.24
.19
.28
.19
.21
.36
.25
1970
.37
.29
.45
.26
.20
.29
.20
.23
.38
.27
1975
.40
.31
.48
.28
.22
.31
.21
.24
.40
.29
1980
.48
.38
.58
.34
.27
.37
.26
.29
.49
.35
1985
.57
.44
.68
.40
.31
.44
.30
.35
.57
.41
Source: Tables 25 and 28.
                                  78

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                                                            FERTILIZERS

      Seasonality of fertilizer use varies widely within and among regions,
and may be of considerable significance in estimating the impact of ferti-
lizer use on groundwater quality.    The use of a given amount of fertilizer
in a  single application during a year may have  different implications for
infiltration, for instance,  than smaller applications of the same amount of
fertilizer distributed throughout the year.  In addition, weather  conditions
in different seasons in which the fertilizer may be applied might  signifi-
cantly affect the  potential  pollution from fertilizer use.
      Although seasonality of use is recognized here as an  important issue,
it has not been incorporated into this demonstration analysis:  first, be-
cause readily available figures (eg, from the USDA Statistical Reporting
Service   ) are for fertilizer purchases by quarters,  which may  differ dras-
tically from fertilizer use, and second,  because the  published data were
for regions, a level of aggregation much too gross to be of real  use since
weather,  soils, crops, growing cycles,  etc, may vary in different parts of
a region.  Were  this demonstration study to  be pursued further with more
complete and less aggregated data,  it might  be possible to  identify the pol-
lution potential of specific crops because of fertilization and irrigation
practices associated with  them, particularly if the rainfall, groundwater
table level, and soil percolation characteristics of an area were  also
known.
NATIONAL FERTILIZER CONSUMPTION
      Table 30 summarizes  Tables 25 through 29  and indicates national
historical  and projected patterns of consumption and fertilizer application.
As the table indicates,  from  1954 to 1970, fertilizer consumption increased
by 1. 8 times.  From 1970 to 1985 the same total increase of 1. 8 times is
expected,  although a declining rate of yearly growth  is anticipated.
      The  change in harvested cropland acreage has  been much different
from that of fertilizer consumption, in that the former shows a steady
decline from 1954—1969   .  By 1970, however, an increase of one million
                                  79

-------
SECTION 7


acres over the 1969 figure is evident.  Based on the assumption that from

1975 to 1985 all available cropland will have become harvested cropland,

338 million acres are projected to  fall within this category during those

10 years.  This represents an acreage similar to that of 1954.

      Unlike the decline in total harvested cropland, the historical data

presented in Table 30 on fertilized harvested cropland exhibit a steady

increase from 1954 to 1969. *  The ratio of fertilized to total harvested

cropland also increased steadily from 1954 to  1969,  but because of the

assumption that the ratio had stabilized by 1969-1970 no increase is pro-

jected beyond these years.


      Table 30 shows an historical increase in per-acre application of

fertilizer to fertilized cropland such that in 1970 nearly 50 percent more

fertilizer was applied per acre than in 1954.  Since the number of acres

treated by fertilizer is  expected to stabilize by 1975, and yet the consump-

tion of fertilizer is expected to continue to increase, per-acre application

is also expected to continue to increase.   Table 30 projects a steady in-

crease in per-acre application from  1970  to 1985 to approximately two-

fifths of a ton per fertilized acre in 1985.   This is approximately one and
one-half times the  quantity used per  acre  in 1970,  and more than double
the amount applied per  acre in 1954.
*A slight drop is shown from 1969 to 1970 because the 1970 regional esti-
 mates were based on USDA data,  rather than projections, of total harvested
 cropland (see Table 25).  When these  data were combined with projections
 of the 1970—1985 constant ratio of fertilized to total harvested cropland
 acreage (see Table 26),  the result was a slight regional decline which was
 reflected in the national total.
                                  80

-------
                                                                            FERTILIZERS
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ertilizer consumpi
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                               SECTION 7
                     BEEF CATTLE FEEDLOT INDUSTRY
INTRODUCTION
      The USDA estimates that approximately 1.39 billion tons of cattle
                                           19
wastes were generated in the nation in 1969.    Of this total only about
5 percent was deposited in feedlots, but the environmental threat of wastes
concentrated on feedlots is disproportionately large relative to total cattle
waste.  The Congressional Research Service states, in reference to the
environmental threat from cattle wastes, that the major  "...  concern
is not with the droppings from grazing animals in pasture lands, but with
feedlot production. "    The brief analysis performed in this study, using
estimates of cattle feedlot marketings and population from 1962 through
1983, yields projections of the amount of waste generated in cattle  feedlots
and acreage devoted to feedlots.  The waste and acreage projections for
1983  are more than 30 percent greater than the 1969 levels. Most  wastes
deposited by beef cattle in feedlots are eventually  removed.  These wastes
may be spread on'cropland or pastures, or may be temporarily stacked
in or near the feedlot,  then spread or bagged to be sold.   However, the
wastes are generally not prevented from remaining in contact with  the
ground in the feedlot for at least a brief period.
      Particularly when the feedlot is covered, a "pack" of manure forms
which becomes essentially impermeable.  When the pack is allowed to dry
and crack,  or if  the manure is scraped off down to the surface of the soil,
direct infiltration through the area of the feedlot becomes important as a
potential source  of groundwater pollution.
                                  82

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                                                             FEEDLOTS

      Rainfall and process water from feedlots (that used for manure)
flushing or washing) may be caught and treated in holding basins, ponds,
or lagoons.  When these facilities  are in place,  infiltration of pollutants
into the ground is the major potential threat to groundwater.  When feed-
lots are not adequately equipped with such facilities,  and particularly
when they are not properly protected by diversion structures to prevent
surface drainage from  passing through the feedlot,  runoff waters will
carry wastes either to  a low point  in the  surrounding terrain or to surface
streams,  or both.  The potential contamination of groundwater is then
related to the wasteloading and  the location of wastewaters, from which
contaminants may infiltrate into groundwater.
      EPA's regulations proposed  in September 1973 specify the best
practicable technology  currently available, and thus required by 1977, as
that which will prevent discharge of pollutants to navigable waters except
when rainfall exceeds a 10-year 24-hour event as established by the U.S.
Weather Bureau.  Effluent limitations representing the best available
technology economically achievable, required by 1983, are to prevent
discharge of pollutants  to navigable waters except when rainfall exceeds
a 25-year 24-hour event.  Currently, however,  " . . . .  Waste production
by our domestic animals  is equivalent to that of a human population of 1. 9
billion.  Sewage treatment facilities for this livestock are infinitesimal
. .  .  . "     This statement is supported by Reference 21, which indicates
that only 9 of 46 beef-producing States had regulations directly dealing
•with feedlot construction or operation in 1972.
      For statistical purposes,   the United States is divided into eleven
beef cattle feedlot production regions (Figure 5), of which the Corn Belt
and the Northern Plains are the  largest producers.  From 1962 to 1972,
and projected through 1983, each of these two regions had more  beef ani-
mals  in feedlots, generated greater amounts of beef cattle waste, and had
more acreage devoted to  feedlots than any other regions of the country.
                                   83

-------
SECTION 7
                  Western Stoles
                 22
     Source:  US DA
                      Figure 5.  Cattle feeding regions.
The greatest concentration of cattle on feedlots, and thus the greatest
density in waste deposits per acre,  occurs in two other regions, California
and Arizona.
      Table 31 lists the constituents present in beef cattle wastes which
may affect groundwater quality.  Nitrogen comprises 3. 1 to 9.8 percent
of total solids,  potassium 1. 7 to 3. 8 percent,  and phosphorus 0. 3 to 1.7
percent, with other constituents occurring in lesser amounts.
      The only reliable data source for the beef cattle industry appears to
be the Federal government, which did not record the  capacity of feedlot
operations until  1962.  Thus,  the  time span of this analysis covers  1962
to 1983, as  1962 is the earliest date for which a usable record of feedlot
activity is available.    The primary references  consulted were the Envi-
                             24
ronmental Protection Agency    and the United States  Department of Agri-
culture.   '   '     The University of Maryland's Bureau of Business and
Economic Research meat industry forecasts were used as the basis for
projecting growth in cattle feedlot operations.
                                  84

-------
                                                               FEEDLOTS
  Table 31 „  Cattle waste characteristics in terms of 1000 pounds live weight.
Waste constituents
BOD5 (Ibs/day)
BOD_ (Ibs/day of volatile solids)
Reaction rate constant (log.-)
BOD^COD (%)
Nitrogen (total Kjeldahl)
(% TS)
(Ibs/day)
Phosphorus (% TS)
Potassium (% TS)
Calcium (% TS)
Magnesium (% TS)
Zinc (% TS)
Copper (% TS)
Iron (% TS)
Manganese (% TS)
Sodium (% TS)
Beef cattle
a
1.7
0.45
0.14
38
6,2
0.30
L7
2.27
1.16
0.47
0,01
-
0.08
0.01
0.09
b
-
0.252
-
-
9.8
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
c
1.02
0.28 -0.32
-
31 -40
3.1
1.35
3,0
0.8
0.65
-
0.0005d
0.03
-
-
Notes:
Values obtained by EPA
b 23
Average suggested values by Taiganides (1971)
Calculations based on tabulated values by Loehr (1968)
rl 9*}
For dairy cattle; no value given for beef cattle.
APPROACH
Assumptions
      Projecting the growth of the beef cattle industry and its attendant
waste deposits required assumptions on  the size range of feedlot cattle,
                                   85

-------
SECTION 7

size trends, seasonality of industry production, and projected regional
distribution of the industry. While these factors could be varied by time
and region  (or some smaller geographic area) in a more detailed study of
this type, for this demonstration analysis they -were treated uniformly for
all regions  and periods.
      The weight range of beef cattle on feedlots in the Amarillo, Texas
area was taken to be representative of feedlots in the rest of the country.
Cattle enter Amarillo feedlots at 550 to 650 pounds and leave  weighing
                      25
1, 000 to 1,  110 pounds.    This average weight-range per head is treated
as unchanging throughout the 1962-1983 analysis period.
      Like  the other industries studied, facility requirements  for a given
annual output—in this  case feedlot  area required—are a function of seasonal
production  schedules.  Information from Agricultural Statistics,  1972
                                      22
and Cattle Feeding in the United States   on cattle and calves on feed at
the beginning of each  quarter indicates  that production rates are substan-
tially the same for most regions throughout the  year.
      In projecting regional cattle  feedlot production for 1972 — 1983 the
distribution was assumed  to be the same as for  1971,  the latest year for
which data  were available.
Method of Analysis
      Data  for the number of animals marketed  from beef cattle feedlots
for the years 1962 through 1968 were taken directly from USDA,  Cattle
                            22
Feeding in  the United States.    Data for  1971 were taken from EPA's
                                                  24
National Animal Feedlot Wastes Research Program   and USDA's Agri-
cultural Statistics,  1972.    Beef  cattle industry growth projections
for 1973 through 1983 were based  upon projections by the University of
Maryland's Bureau of Business and Economic Research.    These were:
                                   86

-------
                                                            FEEDLOTS

                      Period         Percent/Year
                     1971-1973         2.61
                     1974-1975         3.02
                     1976-1978         2.67
                     1980-1983         2.38
      The amount of waste deposited on feedlots was estimated by multi-
plying the number of cattle marketed from feedlots by an average figure
for waste produced per animal during  its feedlot residence.
                           oo o/L ?*7  ? Q
      A variety of estimates  '  '  '   were obtained on the volume of
manure generated by feedlot cattle.  These ranged from 4. 5 tons per year
per 1000 pounds of live steer weight to 11. 7 tons per year per 1000 pounds
of live steer weight; an average value  of 8. 1 tons per year per 1000 pounds
of live steer weight was used.  Since cattle enter feedlots at about 600
pounds, and leave at about 1100 pounds, 850 pounds was taken as a typical
weight of feedlot cattle  during feedlot  residence.  Thus, a figure of 6. 9
tons of manure per year per animal was used in the calculations.  Since
feedlot residence is about 5 months,    the 6.9 tons per year  figure was
multiplied by 5/12 to obtain an estimate of 2. 88 tons of manure deposited
per animal  during its feedlot residence.
      Table 32 shows the number of fed cattle marketed by region and by
year for the period 1962—1983.   Multiplying the number of animals pro-
cessed through feedlots by 2. 88 tons per animal during feedlot residence
yields tons  of cattle waste deposited in feedlots  by  region for the years
covered by  the projection period. These figures are shown in Table 33.
      Using as typical a 5-month feedlot residency of the cattle marketed,
and since feedlot activity appears to be fairly constant through the year,
the average population in feedlots can be approximated by multiplying
cattle marketed (Table  32) by 51'12.  The resulting figures are given in
Table 34.
                                 87

-------
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-------
                                                             FEEDLOTS


       The area occupied by beef cattle feedlots was calculated by multi-

 plying the number of cattle on lots in each region by an estimate of the

 square footage normally allotted per head.  Four estimates on square

 footage of feedlot area per head were obtained.  These were:
                                         •fc
       •  Arizona:  130-150 sq ft per head

       •  Corn Belt:  200 sq ft per head"1"

       •  Northern Plains:  200 sq ft per head"1"

       •  California:
                                               29
         — N.  California:  50—212 sq ft per head

         — S. California:  130-150 sq ft per head*

         — California Mean:  135 sq ft per head.

       These four regions represent over one-half of the beef cattle feedlot

 production in the United States for 1971, and  are projected to represent

 the same  share in 1983.

       No data  were found on the regions which comprise  the remainder

 of the beef cattle feedlot industry in the United States.  One source**

 suggested a national average area per feedlot head of 200 square feet.

 This figure was used to calculate the feedlot areas of the remaining re-

 gions for which estimates were not available.

       The areas of feedlots for  1962-1983 are computed in Table 35 from

 the feedlot area per  head estimates  and the beef cattle feedlot population

 figures of Table 34.
 *Personal communication with Donald Addis, feedlot farm advisor, Uni-
  versity of California,  Riverside Agricultural Extension, September  1973.

 ^Personal communication with Professor Garrett, University of California
  at Davis, Agricultural Department, September 1973.

**Dr. James Elam, feedlot management and cattle nutrition consultant,
  Santa Ynez, California,  September 1973.
                                  91

-------
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-------
                                                            FEEDLOTS


SUMMARY OF BEEF CATTLE FEEDLOT ACTIVITY
      Table 33 shows that the two leading feedlot regions of the country,
the Corn Belt and the Northern Plains, generated 15 million tons and 9
million tons of manure deposits, respectively,  in 1962.  By 1983, the
former is expected to  be  generating 26 million tons per year,  and the
latter 25 million tons per year.  Over the entire projection period, the
national total  increases from about 43 million tons per year to 101 million
tons per year.
      Table 35 shows that in 1971, and projected through 1983, the four
areas with the greatest amount of land covered  by beef cattle feedlot wastes
are the Corn Belt, the Northern Plains, the High Plains, and  Colorado.
For the entire 21-year period, the two highest ranking regions are, again,
the Corn Belt, with a feedlot area of 10, 000 acres in 1962 and a projection
of 17,000 in 1983, and the Northern Plains, with 6,000 acres  in 1962 and
a projection of nearly  17, 000 acres  in 1983.
      Based on waste deposits of 6. 9 tons per year per head and the per-
head area allotment estimates given earlier, the feedlot acreages of
Table 35 are subject to about 1, 500  tons of waste deposits per year per
acre, with the exception of the Arizona and California regions.  Assum-
ing that feedlots are used to  full capacity, Arizona region feedlots receive
annual deposits of about 2, 150 tons per acre and California region feedlots
slightly more, about 2,200 tons per acre.
      Table 36 summarizes Tables 32 through 35.  As may be noted,  about
15 million head of cattle went through feedlots in the United States in  1962.
The number had increased by more  than 10 million by 1971, and is pro-
jected to increase to approximately  2  1/3 times the 1962 production by
1983.  The amount of waste generated follows the same pattern of change
over this 21-year period.  In 1962,  43 million tons of beef cattle waste
material were deposited in feedlots, increasing to 74 million tons by  1971.
Again, the 1962 figure is  expected to more than double by 1983,  when 101
                                 93

-------
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-------
                                                            FEEDLOTS


million tons are projected.  To view the problem in a slightly different
context, those feedlots in existence in 1962 will have accumulated over
31,000 tons of waste per acre by 1983.
      The above amounts of waste deposits occupy increasing acreage in
feedlot operations in the country over the 1962 to 1983 period.  Assuming
a national average feedlot animal population of 200 square feet per ani-
mal,  about 27,000 acres were utilized as feedlots in 1962,  47,000 acres
in 1971, and 64, 000 acres, or 100 square miles, are projected for  1983.
      No attempt was made to assess the pollution potential of cattle feed-
lots in this demonstration study,  but a few generalized observations can
be made. The two leading feedlot regions, the Corn Belt region and the
Northern Plains region,  form a  rough grain farming and livestock-growing
continuum that extends easterly  from the south central part of the Northern
Plains region, traverses the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers, and termi-
nates in the western part of Ohio (see Figure 6).  Rainfall in  the two regions
ranges from moderate in the west to abundant in the east.
          Source: US DA
        ' ClIlU I«t4»| tint r«,rtl.nl I
          bt ml >•!••• •( <«'ll« ftj
                     Figure 6.  Cattle feeding areas.'
                                 95

-------
SECTION 7
      The industry output growth projections,  feedlot acreage, and per



head per year waste deposit estimates used indicate that over the 21-year



projection period, more than 0. 8 billion tons of cattle feedlot wastes will



have been deposited in these two regions.   This represents about one-half



the total U. S. cattle feedlot waste deposits during the projection period



in an area that is less than 15 percent of the total U.S.  area; ie, a  re-



gional concentration of about six times that of the rest of the country.





      While important, the three factors of rainfall, waste deposit  ton-



nages, and areal extent do not wholly determine the groundwater pollution



threat, which depends also on many other  factors such as waste deposit



control and disposal practices (if any), concentrations of feedlot activities



within the regions, local topography and water table characteristics, soil



porosity and sorption characteristics, and groundwater withdrawal rates.
                                   96

-------
                           REFERENCES
1.  Almon, Clopper,  1985 Interindustry Forecasts of the American
    Economy, Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University
    of Maryland (1973).

2.  Federal Water Pollution Control Administration,  "Industrial Waste
    Profile No.  1, Blast Furnaces and Steel Mills, " FWPCA No. I. W. P.
    -1,  100 p.  (September 1967),  "Industrial Waste Profile No. 3, "Paper
    Mills Except Building," FWPCA No.  I. W. P. -3,  65 p. plus app. ,
    "Industrial Waste Profile  No.  5,  Petroleum Refining, " FWPCA No.
    I.W.P.-5,  51 p.  plus app.  (November 1967), The Cost of Clean Water;
    Volume III.  Washington, B.C.,  U.S. Government Printing Office (1967).
3.  U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Subject Statistics:  Water Use in Manu-
    facturing, " j^96_3_C_ejisja^_o^_M^mfa^ture_s_, U.S.  Department of  Com-
    merce, MC63(1)-10,  174 p. , U.S. Government Printing Office (1966).

4.  U.S. Bureau of the Census, "Subject Statistics:  Water Use in Manu-
    facturing, " J_96j7_C^sji£_^f_J^ajiufacture_£, U.S.  Department of  Com-
    merce, MC67(l)-7, 361 p., U.S. Government Printing Office (1971).

5.  Allan, L. ,  Kaufman,  E. K. , and Underwood, J. ,  "Pollution in  the
    Pulp and  Paper Industry, " Paper Profits, Council on Economic Prior-
    ities, New York,  N. Y., Cambridge,  Mass., and  London, England,
    504  p. (1972).

6.  Metcalf & Eddy, Inc., Wastewater Engineering;  Collection.  Treat-
    ment and Engineering, McGraw-Hill, 782 p. (1972).
7.  Russell,  C.S.,  Residuals Management in Industry:  A Case Study of
    Petroleum Refining,  Resources for the Future,  Inc.,  Johns Hopkins
    University Press, 193 p.  (1973).

8.  Environmental Protection Agency, The Economics of Clean Water.
    1972-Volume I Report, 157 p. ,  Volume II,  Data and Technical Appen-
    dices, 695 p., Volume III, 108 p. , Washington, D. C. , U.S.  Government
    Printing Office  (1970).

9.  Federal Water Pollution Control Agency, The Economics of Clean
    Water —Volume I, Detailed Analysis, 168 p. , Volume III,  Inorganic
    Chemical Industry Profile, 467 p.,  Washington,  D. C.,U. S. Government
    Printing Office  (1970).
                                   97

-------
REFERENCES

10.  Reid, G.W.,  et al,  Evaluation of Wastewater from Petroleum and
    Coal Processing. Environmental Protection Agency,  Office of Re-
    search and Monitoring,  205 p. (1972).

11.  Cannon, James S.,  et al, Environmental Steel— Pollution in the Iron
    and Steel Industry,  Council on Economic Priorities,  New York, N. Y. ,
    522 p.  (1973).

12.  U.S. Bureau  of the  Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States.
    1972.  (93rd edition), Washington, D. C. , 1017 p.  (1972).
            Ibid, 1969 (90th edition).
13. Battelle Memorial Institute, Inorganic Fertilizers and Phosphate
    Mining Industries —Water Pollution and Control, Richland, Washing-
    ton, 1202 FPD 09/71, Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
    Research and Monitoring, 225 p. (1971).

14. Boyle,  J. R., Waste Disposal  Costs of a Florida Phosphate Mining
    Operation,  U.S. Bureau of Mines,  Washington,  D. C., Bureau of
    Mines Circular No. 8404, 24 p.  (1969).
15. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Commercial Fertilizers, Consump-
    tion in  the United States, Fiscal Year Ended June 30. 1970,  Statistical
    Reporting Service,  Crop Reporting Board (1971).
            Ibid, Fiscal Year Ended  June 30. 1969 (1970).
            Ibid, Fiscal Year Ended  June 30, 1968 (1969).

16. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Statistics, 1955, U.S.
    Government Printing Office.
            Ibid,  1956,  I960.  1961,  1966.  1970. and 1972.

17. U.S. Department of Commerce,  Bureau of the Census, 1959. United
    States Census of Agriculture.  Vol. II, "General Report, Statistics by
    Subject," (1959).
18. U.S. Department of Commerce,  Bureau of the Census, 1964 United
    States Census of Agriculture,  Vol. II, Chapter 9, "Irrigation, Land
    Improvement Practices, and Use of Agricultural Chemicals, " (1964).
19. Hagen, Carl  A. , Questions and Answers on Environmental Pollution
    Related to Livestock Pollution, United States  Congressional Research
    Service,  Library of Congress, TP 450 USA,  71-223  EP (August 4, 1972).
20. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Soil and Water Conservation Research
    Division, Wastes in Relation to Agriculture and Forestry, Miscella-
    neous publication #1065 (March  1968).
21.  "Energy Needed to  Manage Animal Waste. " Electrical World,  p.  70-
    73 (Sept. 2,  1972).
22. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Cattle
    Feeding in the United States, Agricultural Economic  Report #186  (1971).
                                  98

-------
                                                             REFERENCES


23. Ngoddy, Patrick O. (principal investigator), Closed System  Waste
    Management for Livestock.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
    Office of Research and Monitoring (June 1971).

24. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Environmental
    Research Center, Office of  Research and Monitoring, National Ani-
    mal Feedlot Waste Research Program, U.S.  Government Printing
    Office (1973).

25. "From Ranch to Table-Why Beef Comes High, " U.S. News  & World
    Report, p.  25-26, 31 (Sept 24, 1973).

26. Acker, Duane,  Animal Science and Industry,  Prentice-Hall,  Inc. ,
    Englewood  Cliffs, New Jersey  (1971).

27. Loehr, R.C. Pollution Implications of Animal Wastes —A Forward-
    Oriented Review, Report of FWPCA, Robert S.  Kerr Research Center
    (1968).
28. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Co-operative State Research Service,
    Science Review (Vol. 9,  No. 1, 1st Quarter 1971).

29. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Water Pollution Control Re-
    search Series,  Evaluation of Beef Cattle Feedlot Waste Management
    Alternatives (Nov 1971).
                                   99

-------
 SELECTED WATER
 RESOURCES ABSTRACTS
 INPUT TRANSACTION FORM
                                               1. Report No.
                                                                  3. Accession No.
 w
 4. Title
      POLLUTED GROUNDWATER:  ESTIMATING THE
      EFFECTS OF MAN'S ACTIVITIES,
 7. Author(s)
           John F. Karubian
5. Report Date
6. July 1974
8. Performing Organization
  Report NQ-GE74TMP-17
                                                                  10. Project No.
 9. Organization
           General Electric—TEMPO
           Center for Advanced Studies
           Santa Barbara,  California
11  Contract/Grant No.
 EPA 68-01-0759
 12. Sponsoring Organization
                                                                  13. Type of Report and
                                                                     Period Covered
 15. Supplementary Notes
           Environmental Protection Agency report number
 	      EPA-600/4-74-002,  July 1974.  139 pages.
 16. Abstract
   Presents a method for estimating kinds,  amounts, and trends of groundwater pollu-
   tion caused by man's activities.  Describes preliminary research for a number of
   examples:  unlined earthen basins and lagoons used by the pulp and  paper industry,
   petroleum refining,  and primary metals  industries; phosphate mining wastewater
   ponds; agricultural fertilizer use; and beef cattle  feedlots.  Relies primarily on cen-
   sus data, other statistical data, and descriptions  of production processes used.  Es-
   timates past and projected volumes and areas covered by potential pollutants so that
   geohydrological analysis can be used to estimate the infiltration potential of pollutants
   Results are not definitive but intended only to illustrate use of the methodology for
   geographical areas of interest.  (W.E. Rogers— TEMPO)
 178. OescriPtors*Farm wastes, *lndustrial Wastes, #Waste Water (pollution), *Water Pollu-
   tion Control,  *Water  Pollution Sources,
   Federal Water Pollution Control Act, Groundwater, Liquid Wastes, Management,
   Organic Wastes, Pollutants, Water Pollution,  Water Pollution Effects,  Water Pollu-
   tion Treatment
 17b.  Identifiers
   Feedlots (Pollution), Fertilizer (Pollution),  Petroleum Refining (Pollution),
   Phosphate Mining (Pollution).
 17c. COWRR Field* Group
                    05B, 05D
18. Availability
19. Security Class.
(Report)
20. Security Class
(Page)
21. No. of
f*g6s"\. '
22 Price ^
W.. ' ^
Send To.
" -" r* *' * •*' ^' ' 'v< *'" * *~ '• %
WATER RESOURCES SCIENTIFIC TNFORM)mON CENTER
U.S. bEPARTHENTjOF-TH^INjER.!*}*. -.««
i WASHINGTON, -OX. 2034O , , . . . ,.
Abstractor Institution ,,-',• V •, , . . -
WRSIC 102 (REV. JUNE 1971)
                                                                                 G P O 488-935

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