-------
Table 4-5. FY87 NHATS Sample Sizes by Categories
Analysis
factor
Census
Region
Age
Sex
Race
Number of Number of Number of
quota collected design
Category specimens specimens specimens
Northeast
North Central
South
West
Total
0-14 years
15-44 years
45+ years
Total
Male
Female
Total
Caucasian
Non-Caucasian
Total
270
405
432
270
1,377
311
630
436
1,377
668
709
1,377
1,157
220
1,377
195
307
349
105
956
163
353
440
956
499
457
956
776
180
956
175
296
289
105
865
146
318
401
865
436
429
865
707
158
865
39
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5.0 COMPOSITE DESIGN
The 865 design specimens in the FY87 NHATS were assigned to composite samples
using specific composite design criteria (Leczynski et al. 1988). The reasons for compositing
samples prior to chemical analysis were: (1) at least 10 grams of tissue were needed to meet
the limit of detection goals for the target compounds, and (2) the budget for chemical analysis
of samples could only support the analysis of 48 samples.
5.1 DESIGN GOALS AND COMPOSITING CRITERIA
The seven goals of the FY87 composite design, listed in order of importance, were
• Create no more than 48 composite samples.
• Maintain similarity to the FY82 composite design.
• Maintain equal tissue mass of individual specimens within the composite samples.
• Specify more pure sex composite samples than in FY82.
Control the MSA effect.
• Provide the best range of race group percentages across the composite samples.
• Maintain a constant number of specimens across all composite samples.
Because of the constraints imposed by the sampling and compositing protocols and the
frequency of collection nonresponse, it was not possible to meet all of the design goals. Each
of the last six goals required a different mix of individual specimens within the composite
samples. Thus, attempts were made to achieve all goals across the design to the extent
possible. The criteria used to design composite samples are discussed below.
(1) Create no more than 48 composite samples.
This criterion was based entirely on the funds available for the chemical analysis.
(2) Maintain similarity to FY82 composite design.
This specification was included to ensure that comparisons between the analysis results
from the two years could be made. The design criterion imposed by this objective is that
each composite sample had to be constructed from individual specimens collected from exactly
one Census division and exactly one age group. Thus, there were 27 distinct categories
defined by the intersection of the nine Census divisions and three age groups.
41
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(3) Maintain equal weighing of specimens within the composite samples.
The interpretation of the observed concentrations of the composite samples is far easier
when these concentrations can be interpreted as the arithmetic average of the concentrations
of the individual specimens. Therefore, this design goal specified that each individual
specimen within a composite sample contribute an equal amount of tissue to that composite
sample. This specification allows the lipid adjusted concentration of the composite sample to
be interpreted as approximately the arithmetic average of the lipid adjusted individual
specimen concentrations, with equality whenever all the specimens in the composite sample
have the same percentage of lipid material.
(4) Construct more pure sex composites than in FY82.
Pure male or pure female composite samples were constructed when sufficient numbers
of specimens were available within a particular Census division/age group category. Pure sex
composite samples are samples in which all of the individual specimens were collected from
donors of the same sex. Such composites are needed to achieve more precise estimates of sex
effects in the population. It was anticipated that including more pure sex composite samples
in the FY87 design will lead to smaller standard errors for the sex group estimates (Draper and
Smith 1981, pp. 52-55) than was the case in FY82.
(5) Control the effect of the MSAs contributing specimens to each composite.
Controlling the number of MSAs contributing specimens to composite samples is
intended to reduce the effect of the MSA on the estimated average concentrations. This is
done because MSAs are regarded as being major sources of differences in observed
concentrations across the nation due to their varied exposure scenarios (Panebianco 1986b).
To avoid confounding the MSA effect with any of the geographic or demographic effects, two
design criteria were identified. They were
(5-a) Keep the number of MSAs represented in each composite sample consistent
across the design (2-3 MSAs was the target number), and
(5-b) Maintain approximately the same number of pure male and pure female
composite samples within a group of MSAs.
The first criterion helps to ensure a constant variance of measured concentrations across the
sample whenever the composite sample concentrations are averages over an equal number of
MSAs. The second criterion is intended to prevent confounding a large MSA effect with the
sex effect.
42
-------
(6) Vary the percentage of Caucasian and non-Caucasian specimens in the
composites as much as possible.
For the same reasons it is important to construct pure sex composite samples, it is
important to construct pure race group composite samples. However, this goal is dependent
on the number of non-Caucasian specimens collected in the twenty-seven Census division/age
group categories and the number of composite samples in the design. Since the number of
non-Caucasian specimens collected in the FY87 sample was relatively small, it was decided to
provide the best possible range of race group percentages (i.e., mixes of the Caucasian and
non-Caucasian specimens within the composite samples) across the design rather than focus
on designing pure race group composite samples.
(7) Maintain a constant number of specimens across all composite samples.
This goal, similar to goal 5-a above, could not be fully achieved for the FY87 composite
samples.
5.2 LABORATORY COMPOSITING PROCEDURES
The FY87 NHATS specimens from nine census divisions and three age groups were
divided into 48 composites, as identified in the composite design provided by Battelle-
Columbus Laboratories (Battelle). Battelle provided MRI with the data sheets that identified
the individual specimens and their required weights to be included in each composite. Each
composite consisted of from 3 to 32 specimens. The composite sample data sheets provided
sufficient information (EPA ID number, package number, sample weight, hospital code, etc.)
such that the individual specimens could be cross-checked with the study design. The data
sheets provided by Battelle were used as work sheets to record the actual laboratory
compositing procedures.
Initially, the samples were grouped into composites, and any samples of questionable
weights were noted. Three samples identified below did not appear to have the weight
required by the composite design. These results were relayed to the EPA Work Assignment
Manager (WAM). After consultation with DDE, the EPA WAM forwarded to MRI the
following responses regarding the problem samples on June 24,1988.
43
-------
Composite number Sample number Problem Response
ACD8700023 8706954 Low weight, - 0.1 g Include as is
need 0.5 g
ACD8700032 8701765 No sample Omit
ACD8700201 8703464 Low weight, - 1.3 g Include as is
need 2.0 g
The specimens in a composite were placed on dry ice during the compositing procedure.
An electronic four-place balance was used to weigh the samples. The calibration of the
balance was checked before any weighing was begun and once during the sample weighings
with a Class P set of weights (laboratory grade, tolerance 1/25,000).
To weigh the samples, a clean culture tube was labeled with the composite number and
placed on the balance and the weight tared. A specimen jar was opened, and a portion of the
frozen adipose tissue removed with a clean stainless steel spatula. The adipose tissue was
placed in the culture tube and the weight recorded to three decimal places on the compositing
sheets. Additional adipose tissue was added if necessary. A goal of ±10% of the desired
weight was attempted where possible. The specimen jar was capped and returned to storage.
The weights of the individual specimens were recorded on the data sheets provided by
Battelle.
The weight of the culture, beaker, and adipose tissue was rezeroed, and the next
specimen in the composite was weighed. A new spatula was used for each sample. This
procedure was repeated for each sample in the composite. When the composite was com-
pleted, it was capped and stored in a sample freezer at -10° to -20°C. All data on the actual
compositing procedures were recorded on the data sheets provided by Battelle. All data sheets
were submitted in a separate report to document the compositing activity (Cramer and Stanley
1988).
44
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5.3 SUMMARY OF COMPOSITE SAMPLES
The FY87 NHATS Composite Design resulted in the construction of 48 composite
samples, using the 865 design specimens collected from 41 MSAs. Table 5-1 shows the number
of composite samples for the 27 distinct combinations of Census division and age group. The
sex and race group percentages of the composite samples vary across the design depending on
the availability of specimens within specific demographic subpopulations. Table 5-2 shows the
demographic makeup of the FY87 NHATS composite samples.
The 48 composite samples were randomly assigned to five batches. Within batches, the
composite samples were placed in random order for the chemical analysis.
45
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Table 5-1. Distribution of FY87 NHATS Composite Samples
by Census Division and Age Group
Age group
Census division
New England
Middle Atlantic
South Atlantic
East South Central
West South Central
East North Central
West North Central
Mountain
Pacific
Total
0-14 Years
1
1
2
1
1
2
1
1
1
11
15-44 Years
1
3
4
1
1
3
2
1
1
17
45+ Years
1
2
4
1
1
5
2
1
3
20
Total
3
6
10
3
3
10
5
3
5
48
46
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6.0 CHEMICAL ANALYSIS PROCEDURES AND QUALITY CONTROL DATA
The 48 composite samples were prepared in the analysis laboratory for determination of
low pg/g (ppt) levels of PCDDs and PCDFs using high-resolution gas chromatography/high-
resolution mass spectrometry (HRGC/HRMS). The performance of the analysis effort was
demonstrated through the determinations of PCDDs and PCDFs in 20 quality control samples
(method blanks, controls, and spiked tissues). Chemical analysis performance was also
documented through participation in an interlaboratory effort with two other laboratories
recognized for their expertise in the determination of PCDDs and PCDFs in human tissues. This
section describes the analytical methodology and presents the results (analytical and statistical)
for the quality control samples. A detailed presentation of the analytical results for all PCDDs and
PCDFs in the FY87 NHATS design samples and the quality control samples is given in
Appendix A.
6.1 SAMPLE PREPARATION
The preparation of the composited adipose tissue specimens for determination of PCDDs
and PCDFs required a multistep procedure, which included quantitative extraction and cleanup
through several chromatographic columns. The procedures described below were carried out for
each of the five sample batches for the FY87 NHATS study.
6.1.1 Extraction
After compositing, the adipose tissue samples were stored at -20°C in 50-mL culture tubes
sealed with aluminum foil. The extraction procedure was initiated by allowing the samples to
come to room temperature and then fortifying them with 100 fiL of an internal quantitation
standard (IQS) spiking solution (Table 6-1) containing nine carbon-13 labeled PCDDs and PCDFs.
Ten milliliters of methylene chloride was added and the sample was homogenized for 1 min with
a Tekmar Tissuemizer®. The mixture was allowed to separate, and the methylene chloride was
decanted through a funnel of sodium sulfate into a 100-mL volumetric flask. The homogenization
was repeated two to three times with fresh 10-mL portions of methylene chloride. The culture
tube was rinsed with additional methylene chloride and the remaining contents of the tube
transferred to the funnel. Finally, the funnel was rinsed with additional methylene chloride and
the final volume was brought to 100 mL.
At this point the flask was stoppered and inverted several times to mix the extract. Next,
a 1-mL aliquot was removed with a disposable graduated pipet and placed into a preweighed
(measured to 0.0001 g) 1-dram glass vial. The methylene chloride in the vial was reduced under
49
-------
Table 6-1. Internal Standard Spiking Solution
for chlorinated Species3
Concentration
Analyte (pg/\iL)
Chlorinated Internal Quantitation Standards'1
13C12-2,3,7,8-TCDD 5
13C12-2,3,7,8-TCDF 5
13C]2-l,2,3,7,8-PeCDD 5
13Cirl,2,3,7,8-PeCDF 5
13C12-l,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD 12.5
13C12-l,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF 12.5
13C12-l,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD 12.5
13C]2-l,2,3,W,8-HpCDF 12.5
13C]2-OCDD 25
Internal Recovery Standard*"
13C12-1,2,3,4-TCDD 50
13C12-l,2,3,7,8-HxCDD 125
" All internal quantisation and recovery standards were obtained
as solutions from Cambridge Isotope Laboratories (Woburn,
Massachusetts).
b Prepared in isooctane. One hundred microliters spiked. Separate
solutions were used for chlorinated and brominated species.
c Prepared in tridecane. Used for both chloro and bromo analyses.
50
-------
flowing nitrogen until a constant weight of lipid was obtained. The weight of the lipid was
obtained by difference, and the percent lipid for the composite was calculated and recorded.
The remaining portion of the extract (99 mL) was quantitatively transferred, followed by
a 20- to 30-mL rinse, to a 500-mL round-bottomed flask. The extract was concentrated under
vacuum to an oily residue (extractable lipids) using rotary evaporation.
6.1.2 Bulk Lipid Removal
Separation and concentration of the PCDDs and PCDFs from the lipids to achieve a final
volume of 10 \iL is necessary to detect pg/g concentrations. The extractable lipids from some of
the composites was as high as 9 g of oily materials. The bulk lipid was removed following an
acidic silica gel slurry cleanup procedure . This was accomplished by adding 200 mL of hexane
and a Teflon-coated stirring bar to the lipid in the round-bottomed flask Then, while stirring the
extract on a magnetic stir plate, 100 g of 40% w/w sulfuric acid-impregnated silica gel was slowly
added to the extract. The mixture was stirred for 2-hours. During the 2-hour slurry period,
acid/neutral silica gel columns (4 g 40% H2SCVsi]ica gel, 1 g silica gel) were prepared. After the
2-hour period, the slurry mixture was allowed to settle, and the hexane was decanted off the acid
impregnated silica gel through a funnel of sodium sulfate into the acid/neutral silica gel column.
The slurry mixture was rinsed for 15 minutes with two additional aliquots (50 mL) of hexane.
The rinses were added to the silica gel column through the sodium sulfate funnel. The eluate of
the column was collected in a 500-mL Kuderna-Danish evaporation flask An additional 50 mL
of hexane was placed onto the column when the solvent level had reached the level of the
chromatographic packing. The extract was then reduced in volume over a steam bath and the
final volume adjusted to approximately 1 mL using nitrogen blowdown.
6.1.3 Separation of Chemical Interferences
Separation of chemical interferences, such as pesticides, PCBs, and other chlorinated planar
aromatics is essential to avoid false positive measurements. Removal of chemical interference was
achieved using two different chromatographic cleanup systems. The first was prepared as a
layered column containing 1 g sodium sulfate, 4 g neutral alumina, and 1 g sodium sulfate. The
1 mL extract from the acid/neutral silica gel column was transferred to the alumina column,
followed by two 1-mL portions of hexane and 10 mL of 8% (volume/volume, v/v) methylene
chloride in hexane. These eluents were collected and archived. The PCDDs and PCDFs were
eluted from the column with 15 mL of 60% (v/v) methylene chloride in hexane and the eluent
concentrated under a stream of nitrogen to approximately 2 mL.
51
-------
A disposable column of AX-21 on silica gel was prepared and preeluted with 4 mL of
toluene, 2 mL of 75:20:5 methylene chloride/methanol/benzene, and 2 mL of 1:1 cyclohexane/
methylene chloride. The concentrated eluate from the alumina column was added to the
AX-21/silica gel column followed by two 1-mL hexane rinses. The column was eluted sequentially
with two 0.5-mL aliquots of hexane, 10 mL of 1:1 cyclohexane/methylene chloride, and 5 mL of
75:20:5 methylene chloride/methanol/benzene. These eluents were combined and archived. The
columns were turned upside down and the PCDDs and PCDFs eluted with 20 mL of toluene.
The extract was then reduced in volume to approximately 100 \iL, then 10 |iL of recovery standard
in tridecane was added (Table 6-1) and the volume was further reduced to 10 |iL under nitrogen.
The extract was stored in a freezer pending HRGC/HRMS analysis.
6.2 HRGC/HRMS ANALYSIS
Initial calibration of the GC/MS system was conducted by making single 1-pL injections
of the standards listed in Table 6-2. Relative response factors calculated from this calibration effort
are shown in Table 6-3. A CS7 (2.5 to 12.5 pg/|iL) standard was analyzed on a daily basis to
ensure adherence to the initial calibration curve. The traceability and comparability of the
analytical standards has been demonstrated in a previous NHATS effort (USEPA 1986) and
through participation in an interlaboratory comparison study (Bradley, et al. 1990).
HRGS/HRMS analysis of the samples was conducted after initial and routine calibration
criteria were met. Prior to the injection of the first sample, an injection of tridecane was analyzed
to document system cleanliness. If any evidence of system contamination was found, corrective
action was taken by analyzing another tridecane blank or cleaning the injection system. A typical
daily sequence of injections is shown in Table 6-4. A 1-fiL aliquot of the extracts was injected into
the GC/MS system, which was operated under the conditions that previously produced acceptable
results with the daily calibration standard.
Selected ion monitoring (SIM) data were acquired according to the acquisition and MS
operating conditions previously used to determine the relative response factors (Tables 6-5 and
6-6). Instrument performance was monitored by examining and recording the peak areas for the
recovery standard, 13C]21,2,3,4-TCDD. If this area decreased to less than 50% of the calibration
standard, sample analyses were stopped until the problem was identified and corrected.
52
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Table 6-4. Typical Daily Sequence for PCDD/PCDF Analysis
/ 1. Tune and calibrate mass scale versus perfluorokerosene (PFK).
2. Inject column performance/window-defining mixture.
3. Inject concentration calibration solution 2.5 to 12.5 pg/fiL (CS-7) solution.
4. Inject blank (Tridecane).
5. Inject samples 1 through "N."
6. Inject concentration calibration solution 2.5 to 12.5 pg/|iL (CS-7) solution or other
concentration calibration solutions CSl to CSS to bracket observed sample
concentration.
55
-------
Table 6-5. Ions Monitored for HRGC/HRMS of PCDD/PCDF
Descriptor
Al
A2
A3
ID
TCDF
13C12-TCDF
TCDD
13C12-TCDD
HxCDPE
PFK (lock mass)
TCDF
TCDD
PeCDF
13C12-PeCDF
PeCDD
13C12-PeCDD
PFK (lock mass)
HpCDPE
HxCDF
PFK (lock mass)
J3C12-HxCDF
HxCDD
13C12-HxCDD
OCDPE
Mass
303.902
305.899
315.942
317.939
319.897
321.894
331.937
333.934
377.886
380.976
303.902
305.899
319.897
321.894
339.863
341.860
351.900
353.894
355.858
357.855
367.895
369.889
380.976
409.877
373.821
375.818
380.976
383.861
385.858
389.816
391.813
401.856
403.853
445.866
Nominal dwell
time (s)
0.090
0.090
0.090
0.090
0.090
0.090
0.090
0.090
0.090
0.090
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.045
0.035
0.035
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
0.080
56
-------
Table 6-5 (continued)
Descriptor ID
A4 PFK (lock mass)
HxCDD
HpCDF
13C]2-HpCDF
HpCDD
13C12-HpCDD
13C12-HpCDD
NCDPE
A5 PFK (lock mass)
OCDF
I3C]2-OCDF
OCDD
I3C]2-OCDD
DCDPE
Mass
380.976
389.816
391.813
407.782
409.779
417.822
419.819
423.777
425.774
435.817
437.814
429.768
431.765
479.856
380.976
441.743
443.740
453.783
455.780
457.738
459.735
469.779
471.776
513.846
Nominal dwell
time (s)
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.040
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.06
57
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Table 6-6. HRGC/HRMS Operating Conditions for PCDD/PCDF Analysis
Mass spectrometer (Kratos MS50-TC)
Accelerating voltage: 8,000 V
Trap current: 500 pA
Electron energy: 70 eV
Electron multiplier voltage: -1,800 V
Source temperature: 280°C
Resolution: ;> 10,000 (10% valley definition)
Overall SIM cycle time: 1 s
Gas chromatograph (Carlo Erba MFC-500")
Column coating: DB 5
Film thickness: 0.25 jim
Column dimensions: 60 m x 0.25 mm ID
He linear velocity: ~ 25 cm/s
He head pressure: 1.75 kg/cm2 (25 psi)
Injection type: Splitiess, 45 s
Split flow: 30 mL/min
Purge flow: 6 mL/min
Injector temperature: 270°C
Interface temperature: 300°C
Injection size: 1-2 nL
Initial temperature: 200°C
Initial time: 2 min
Temperature program: 200°C to 270°C at 5°C/min
Second hold time: 10 min
Second temperature ramp: 270° to 330°C at 5°C/min
Final hold time: 5 min
58
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6.3 OA/OC FOR CHEMICAL ANALYSIS
The QA/QC program for this analysis effort included: demonstration of instrumental
performance, routine analysis of quality control samples (method blank, controls and spiked
tissues), analysis of performance audit samples and participation in an interlaboratory effort for
comparison of results on specific samples. Each of these QA/QC efforts and results are discussed.
6.3.1 Instrument Performance
Instrument performance was characterized primarily by three criteria: (1) mass resolution
(^ 10,000) and calibration; (2) relative response factors (RRF), i.e., adherence to the initial RRFs;
and (3) column performance as indicated by peak separation between 2,3,7,8-TCDD and other
TCDD isomers.
6.3.1.1 Mass Resolution and Calibration
The mass spectrometer was tuned on a daily basis to yield optimum sensitivity and peak
shape using an ion m/z 380.9760) from PFK. The resolution was visually monitored and
maintained at ^ 10,000 (10% valley definition) to provide adequate noise rejection while
maintaining good ion transmission. Static-resolving power checks were performed at the
beginning and at the end of each 12-hour operation period. A visual check (i.e., documentation
was not required) of the static resolution was made by using the peak matching unit before and
after each analysis. Corrective action was implemented whenever the resolving power did not
meet the criteria of ^ 10,000.
Mass calibration of the mass spectrometer for the HRGC/MS analysis of PCDD/PCDF was
conducted on a daily basis. The magnetic field was adjusted to pass m/z 300 at full accelerating
voltage. PFK was admitted to the MS, and an accelerating voltage scan from 8,000 to 4,000 v was
acquired by the data system. This corresponded to an effective mass range of 301 to 593 amu.
Upon completion of a successful calibration step, the five ion descriptors shown in Table 6-5 were
updated to reflect the new mass calibration.
6.3.1.2 Relative Response Factor
As part of the initial and routine instrument performance checks, calibration standards were
analyzed and the responses of the respective analytes were compared to specific internal stan-
dards to establish the RRF values. The initial and routine calibration criteria required that the
precision of the RRF measurements be within ±20% for the tetrachloro congeners and within
±30% for the other compounds.
59
-------
Sensitivity of the HRMS was documented through the responses noted for the first
calibration standard of each analysis day. The method required the analysis of a low level
standard (CS7) to document sufficient instrumental response to support instrumental detection
limits of 1 pg/fiL for TCDD.
Routine checks on the instrument sensitivity, which were documented in the MS log book,
was achieved by monitoring the response for the internal recovery standard (13C12-1,2,3,4-TCDD)
from injection to injection. If the response for this standard dropped by greater than 50% of the
response noted in the previous calibration standard, the analyst verified instrumental performance
by analyzing an additional calibration standard. Additional details on the initial and routine
calibration events are presented in the data reports provided to EPA (Cramer et al. 1989a, 1989b).
6.3.1.3 TCDD Peak Separation
The HRGC column performance was demonstrated at the start of each 12-h analysis period.
This was accomplished by injecting 1 jiL of the column performance/window-defining check
solution and acquiring SIM data for all PCDD and PCDF compounds. The HRGC column
performance was determined based on the ability to resolve 2,3,7,8-TCDD from possible coeluting
TCDDs.
The chromatographic peak separation between 2,3,7,8-TCDD and the peaks representing
any other TCDD isomers was resolved with a valley of s 25%, where
valley % = (*/y)(100)
x = measured height of the valley between the chromatographic peak corresponding to 2,3,7,8-
TCDD and the peak of the nearest TCDD isomer
y = peak height of 2,3,7,8-TCDD
Figure 6-1 is an example of the separation of a TCDD isomer mixture and the calculation of
isomer resolution. The TCDD isomer resolution was documented to range from 18% to 25%
during the analysis effort (Cramer et al. 1989a, 1989b)
6.3.2 QC Samples
Samples included for QC purposes are summarized in Table 6-7. Each of these quality
control samples are described in further detail below. These quality control samples were
included with the analysis of the FY87 samples. The order of preparation and analysis with
respect to the FY87 NHATS composites was specified in the study design.
60
-------
en
§
I
tfl
Q
Q
U
61
-------
Table 6-7. Quality Control Samples
Type Frequency Application
Method blank One per batch Assess laboratory background
contribution
Spiked control adipose Two per batch (two Evaluate method performance
tissue sample different spike levels) (accuracy and precision)
Unspiked control adipose One per batch Evaluate method performance
tissue sample (accuracy and precision)
6.3.2.1 Method Blanks
One method blank was generated with each batch of samples. A method blank was
generated by performing all steps detailed in the analytical procedure using all reagents,
standards, equipment, apparatus, glassware, and solvents that were used for a sample analysis,
but omitting the addition of the adipose tissue. The method blank contained the same amounts
of carbon-13 labeled internal quantitation standards that were added to samples before bulk lipid
cleanup. The five method blanks analyzed with the samples did not contain PCDDs or PCDFs
with the exception of the method blank generated for Batch 1 samples. This method blank
contained a trace of 2,3,7,8-TCDF which was determined to be equivalent to 0.46 pg/g of tissue.
The detailed analysis results for the method blanks are presented in Appendix A.
6.3.2.2 Control Samples
Control samples were prepared from a bulk sample of human adipose tissue. This material
was prepared by blending the tissue with methylene chloride, drying the extract by eluting
through anhydrous sodium sulfate, and removing the methylene chloride using rotoevaporation
at elevated temperatures (80°C). The evaporation process was extended to ensure that all traces
of the extraction solvent had been removed. The resulting oily matrix (lipid) was subdivided into
10-g aliquots which were analyzed with each sample batch. A summary of the QC sample results
is presented in Section 6.5. A detailed presentation of this data by analyte is given in Appendix A.
6.3.2.3 Internal Spiked Control Samples
Spiked lipid samples were prepared using a portion of the homogenized control lipid.
Sufficient spiked lipid matrix was prepared to provide a minimum of two spiked samples, one low
and one high, per sample batch. The native spiking solution concentrations are shown in
62
-------
Table 6-8. Additional OCDD was added to each sample with a 75 pg/iiL spiking solution. Low
and high spike levels in the control samples are shown in Table 6-9.
The spiking solutions were checked for accuracy prior to spiking the adipose composite
with the native isomers. The results of this spike check are shown in Table 6-10. The spike check
results for the separate OCDD spiking solution (needed to reach the higher level for OCDD in
the adipose tissue) are given in Table 6-11. A summary of the results from the analysis of these
spiked materials is presented in Section 6.5. The results are presented for each spiked sample in
Appendix A.
6.3.3 Performance Audit Samples (PAS)
Performance audit samples (PAS) were submitted for analysis before the first sample was
analyzed with batch 1 and batch 5. These samples consisted of unlabeled PCDDs and PCDFs in
a solvent matrix. The samples were prepared by the project quality control coordinator (QCC)
and turned over to project personnel who fortified the samples with IQS and RS solutions and
submitted the prepared sample for HRGC/HRMS analysis. The performance audit samples were
prepared from a mixture of standards used for an interlaboratory effort to establish consensus
values for concentrations (Bradley et al 1989). Results from the analysis were given directly to
the QCC. Acceptability criteria were 70% to 130% accuracy for each of the isomers in the sample.
Table 6-12 provides a summary of the results from the analysis of the two performance
audit samples. As presented the measurements were within the criteria specified for each analyte.
6.3.4 Interlaboratory Comparisons
External QC samples and solutions were submitted to two outside laboratories. The
contacts and laboratories were Dr. Donald Patterson with the Centers for Disease Control in
Atlanta and Dr. John J. Ryan with the Health Protection Branch in Canada. Each laboratory
received one spike check solution sealed in an amber ampule and three blind control lipid
samples. The lipid samples were spiked identically to those used with the analysis of the FY87
NHATS samples and included an unspiked sample, a low level spike sample, and a high level
spike sample. Data from the interlaboratory comparison are presented in Tables 6-13 through
6-16. These data demonstrate that although some differences were apparent in the analytical
standards and hence the results for the analysis of the quality control samples, the data for the
respective compounds from the laboratories are generally within 30% relative percent difference.
63
-------
Table 6-8. PCDD and PCDF Native Spiking Solution"
Concentration
Analyte (pg/jiL)
2,3,7,8-TCDD 5
2,3,7,8-TCDF 5
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD 5
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF 5
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF 5
1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDD 12.5
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD 12.5
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDD 12.5
1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF 12.5
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF 12.5
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDF 12.5
2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF 12.5
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD 12.5
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF 12.5
1,2,3,4,7,8,9-HpCDF 12.5
OCDD 25b
OCDF 25
Prepared in isooctane. This solution also contained similar
concentrations of the available brominated dioxin and furan
, congeners.
The level of OCDD was adjusted based on the endogenous level of
OCDD in adipose tissue. An additional, separate solution of OCDD
at 75 pg/fiL was used to achieve the higher spiking level needed.
64
-------
Table 6-9. Control Sample Spike Levels
Analyte
2,3,7,8-TCDF
2,3,7,8-TCDD
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD
1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF
2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8/1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDD
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8,9-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD
1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9-OCDF
1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9-OCDD
Low spike level
(Pg/g)
10
10
10
10
10
25
25
25
25
50
25
25
25
25
50
350
High spike level
(P8/g)
50
50
50
50
50
125
125
125
125
250
125
125
125
125
250
700
65
-------
Table 6-10. PCDD and PCDF Spike Check Results
Analyte
2,3,7,8-TCDF
2,3,7,8-TCDD
1,2,3,7,8-PCDF
2,3,4,7,8-PCDF
1,2,3,7,8-PCDD
1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF
2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDD
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDD
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8,9-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD
OCDF
OCDD
Replicate no.
1
2
3
Average recovery (%)
Spike
level
(pgW
50
50
50
50
50
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
125
250
250
Table 6-11
Spike level
150
150
150
Spike check 1
(Pg/nL)
44.3
51.0
47.3
48.6
46.5
124.0
119.4
104.0
93.0
115.9
118.4
107.3
114.3
114.9
115.4
207.8
226.7
. OCDD
Recovery
89
102
95
97
93
99
96
83
74
93
95
86
91
92
92
83
91
Spike check 2
(pg/nL)
41.1
49.5
56.8
54.7
46.1
121.3
116.2
105.3
107.0
115.1
122.6
114.5
114.4
99.7
118.0
210.6
224.6
Recovery
82
99
114
109
92
97
93
84
86
92
98
92
92
80
94
84
90
Average
recovery
85
101
104
103
93
98
94
84
80
92
96
89
91
86
93
84
90
Spike Check Results
(pg/jiL) Amount found
142.6
154.6
138.1
Recovery %
95
103
92
97
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Table 6-14. Intel-laboratory Comparison—Control Lipid Results (pg/g)
Analyte
2,3,7,8-TCDF
2,3,7,8-TCDD
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD
1,2,3,4,7,8-
HxCDF
1,2,3,6,7,8-
HxCDF
2,3,4,6,7,8-
HxCDF
1,2,3,7,8,9-
HxCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8-
HxCDD
1,2,3,6,7,8-
HxCDD
1,2,3,7,8,9-
HxCDD
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-
HpCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8,9-
HpCDF
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-
HpCDD
1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9-
OCDF
1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9-
OCDD
Labi
n=l
1.2
8
ND(l)b
16
15
19
9
1.6
ND(1)
11
99
17
36
ND(1)
132
ND(1)
986
Lab 2
n=4
Average
1.3
10.6
ND(O.T)
27.1
26.6
31.7
14.6
3.0
ND(0.3)
20.2
131
18.5
31.5
ND(0.4)
212
NRf
1030
RSD (%)
23.1
9.4
-
7.4
9.4
8.8
13.0
20.2
-
11.9
5.3
16.8
18.1
-
7.5
-
6.9
Lab3
n=5
Average RSD (%)
1.121
9.29
0.48C
25.1
20.8
18.7
10.8
ND(9.84)
ND(0.66)
-
136.8d
21.1'
29.8
1.42
140
4.02*
1,184
-
9.7
-
7.5
4.6
-
21.4
-
-
-
6.8
8.4
6.3
-
6.9
70.6
3.7
a Avenge of two positive quantifiable or trace values (n=2).
b Not detected. Detection limit in parenthesis.
c One trace value (n=l).
d 1,2,3,4,7,8- and 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD reported as total amount in Lab 3 results.
e Average of four positive quantifiable or trace values (n=4).
' Not reported.
8 Average of three positive quantifiable or trace values (n=3).
69
-------
Table 6-15. Inter-laboratory Comparison—Low Level Spiked Lipid (% Recovery)
Analyte
2,3,7,8-TCDF
2,3,7,8-TCDD
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD
1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF
2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDD
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDD
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8,9-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD
1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9-OCDF
1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9-0000
Labi
n=l
70
70
56
50
70
56
56
62
68
60
120
72
100
76
56
56
64
Lab 2
n=4
Average
119
98
91
100
110
120
109
107
95
88
128
93
103
133
260
NRC
NR
RSD (%)
3.8
4.4
6.6
5.7
8.8
13.5
12.7
11.1
5.1
8.5
3.1
3.1
5.6
9.6
7.6
-
-
Lab 3
n=5
Average
95
83
115a
99"
94b
_c
95a
99d
79
e
88a
95
114
115
89s
99a
87a
RSD (%)
7.1
23.3
8.8
17.9
39.1
-
13.6
35.2
15.1
-
32.3
20.0
14.6
4.2
11.5
14.9
13.3
a Average of four positive quantifiable or trace values (n=4).
b Average of three positive quantifiable or trace values (n=3).
c Diphenylether interference observed.
d Average of two positive quantifiable or trace values (n=2).
e 1,23,4,7,8- and 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD isomers were reported as a sum.
f Not reported.
70
-------
Table 6-16. Interlaboratory Comparison—High Level Spiked Lipid (% Recovery)
Analyte
2,3,7,8-TCDF
2,3,7,8-TCDD
1,23,7,8-PeCDF
23,4,7,8-PeCDF
1,23,7,8-PeCDD
1,23,4,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF
2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF
1,23,7,8,9-HxCDF
1,23,4,7,8-HxCDD
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDD
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8,9-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCD
1,23,4,6,7,8-OCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8,9-OCDD
Labi
N=l
Lab 2
n=4
RSD
Average (%)
74
86
60
62
78
62
72
70
62
58
70
78
100
82
80
81
89
111
91
93
103
120
112
104
105
86
89
93
88
95
120
121
NRd
NR
" Diphenylether interference observed
b Average of two positive quantifiable or trace values
c 1,2,3,4,7,8- and 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD isomers were repoi
2.1
10.0
6.9
6.2
9.7
15.1
13.9
17.2
5.6
9.2
7.7
8.6
6.7
21.3
13.8
-
-
(n=2).
•ted as a sum.
Lab3
n=5
Average
92
92
100
89
88
a
68
78b
74
C
97
91
108
104
90
93
93"
RSD
(%)
4.7
3.4
6.2
9.2
11.5
-
13.2
0.9
13.3
-
12.7
8.8
15.2
10.0
19.3
9.0
29.2
d Not reported.
e Average of four positive quantifiable or trace values (n=4)
71
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6.4 SYNOPSIS OF ANALYTICAL RESULTS
The detailed results from the analysis of all samples have been submitted as separate
reports to EPA (Cramer et al. 1989a, 1989b). Appendix A of this report provides detailed
documentation on the results of each FY87 NHATS sample and QC sample. The data in Appen-
dix A identifies: batch number, laboratory identification; NHATS sample identification; number
of specimens in the composite; census region and age group; composition of composite by sex and
race; identification of data quality as positive quantifiable (PQ), trace (TR) or not detected (ND);
measured concentrations and limits of detection; data restrictions; and IQS recoveries.
Successful analyses were achieved for all samples except one, ACD8700425. This sample
appeared to have been fortified with twice the specified amount of IQS. In the remaining
samples, the range of 2,3,7,8-TCDD detected ranged from a nondetect value of 0.0689 pg/g to a
maximum of 15.1 pg/g. Positive quantifiable OCDD ranged from 136 to 1,660 pg/g.
It should also be noted that in many of the analyses, responses to octachlorodiphenyl ethers
(OCDPE) overlapped with the responses of the 1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF and the 2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF
isomers. In these cases the observed responses were quantitated but were reported as a
nondetected (ND) value.
The recoveries of the internal quantitation standards (IQS) were within the QA data quality
objective of 40% to 150%, with the exceptions that are identified below. As previously noted,
composite ACD8700425 appeared to have been fortified with twice the specified amount of IQS.
Data for this composite are considered suspect. In composites ACD8700023 and ACD8700256, the
recoveries of 13C12-PeCDD (28%) and 13C,2-PeCDF (17%), respectively, were outside the data quality
objectives. Since only one out of nine IQS recoveries per sample were not in control, the samples
were not reanalyzed. The PeCDD and PeCDF data for these two composites were flagged as not
meeting the DQOs. In batches 3 through 5, the recoveries of the carbon-13 labeled HpCDD in
three composites and the labeled octachlorodioxin in 17 composites and/or QC samples were
outside the DQOs.
The analysis results for the spiked control QC samples (Table 6-17) indicated that the
accuracy of the method met the QA objectives of 40% to 150% for all compounds with the
following exceptions: the 1,2,3,4,7,8- and 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD pair in the low level batch 2 spike
(13% recovery); OCDD in the high level batch 3 spike (39%);, 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD in the low level
batch 5 spike (32%); and 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF in the low level batch 4 spike (not recovered). The
PeCDF recovery was affected by a momentary reduction in sensitivity resulting from the apparent
coelution of a high level compound interference. The remaining compounds showed recoveries
ranging from 44% to 137%.
72
-------
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6.5 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QUALITY CONTROL DATA
The statistical analysis of the FY87 NHATS QC samples for the PCDD and PCDF analytical
results are summarized in Table 6-17. The objectives of the analysis were to
• Estimate the percent recovery of the analytical method,
• Determine if there are significant differences in the analytical performance among
the batches,
• Characterize the precision of the analytical method,
• Establish the relationship between the precision of the analytical method and the
level of the spiked concentration, and
• Identify anomalous results that suggest potential problems in the analytical
measurements.
Of the 68 samples analyzed for PCDDs and PCDFs in the FY87 study, 20 were QC
samples. Each of the five analysis batches contained one method blank, one unspiked control
sample, and two spiked samples. The sampling plan for the allocation of these QC samples has
been described by Heath (1988). Leczynski et al. (1988) determined the assignment of the QC
samples to the analysis batches.
Because it was agreed that population estimates would be calculated using only the data
that met the data quality objectives (DQOs), the same criteria were applied before evaluating the
QC data. The DQO criteria are:
(1) Internal quantitation standard (IQS) recovery must be between 40% and 150%,
(2) Ion ratio must be within 20% of the theoretical ratio, and
(3) There must be no problems with coelution or fragmented peaks.
If an analyte was not detected (ND), the measured concentration of the QC sample was computed
as one half of the detection limit (LOD/2). This same approach was used in the statistical analysis
of the field samples.
A descriptive summary of the QC data is presented in Section 6.5.1. In Section 6.5.2 the
statistical approach to analyzing the QC data is discussed and the results of these analyses are
presented in Section 6.5.3. Conclusions are presented in Section 6.6.4.
76
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6.5.1 Summary of the OC
Table 6-17 presents the data for each chemical in the quality control samples. Table 6-17
presents the data by chemical and spike level (pg/g) and provides information on the number of
QC samples for which the DQOs were met, the number of positive quantifiable (PQ) and trace
(TR) measurements, the average measured concentration, the background adjusted recovery
(BAR) for spiked samples, the standard deviation (SD) of the measured concentration, and the
coefficient of variation (CV). The background adjusted recoveries at the low (L) and high (H)
spike levels were computed as
BAR(j) = 100%*[Avg(j) - Avg(O)] / spike level,
where Avg(j) is the average measured concentration at spike level j (j=L or H) and Avg(O) is the
average measured concentration of the unspiked control sample. The coefficient of variation was
computed as
CV(j) = 100%*[SD(j)/Avg(j)]/ for j= 0, L, and H.
All background adjusted recoveries were between 67 and 120% and the coefficients of
variation were generally between 2 and 20% at both the low and high spike levels. In the control
samples analytes at levels below the detection limit of the analytical method generally had the
higher coefficients of variation.
Only one analyte was detected in the method blank The measured concentration of
2,3,7,8-TCDF in the batch 1 method blank was 0.460 pg/g, or 41% of the average measured 2,3,7,8-
TCDF concentration (1.12 pg/g) in the two control samples that met the DQO criteria. Because
this indicated a potential for a bias affecting all batch 1 samples, the measured 2,3,7,8-TCDF
concentrations of the 48 study samples were compared across the five batches. This comparison
did not reveal any statistical evidence of a batch effect on the study samples. Therefore, no
adjustments were made to the measured 2,3,7,8-TCDF concentrations of the study or the QC
samples in batch 1. In particular, all 2,3,7,8-TCDF QC data meeting the original DQOs were
included in the statistical analysis.
Appendix D contains the plots of the measured concentrations against the spike levels for
all study compounds. It is evident from these plots that the relationship between measured
concentration and spiked concentration is nearly linear for all the compounds. Because only one
measurement met the DQO criteria for 1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF, a figure is not given for this chemical.
Also presented in these figures are the predicted concentrations with tolerance bounds for
individual measured concentrations. The statistical methods for calculating the predicted values
and tolerance bounds are discussed in the following section.
77
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6.5.2 Statistical Approach to Analyzing the QC Data
The QC data were statistically analyzed using linear regression models fitted to the
measured concentrations for each compound. Three models, as described in Table 6-18, were
fitted to the data to determine the best fit and to test for significant batch effects.
Initially the full batch effects (FB) model was fitted for each compound. The FB model was
used to test for two types of batch effects: fixed effects and proportional effects. A fixed batch
effect is the constant amount by which the measured concentrations in the batch differ from the
average for all batches. It is calculated using the intercepts («., i=l,...,5) of the FB model. For
example, the fixed effect of batch 1 is represented by «]-K/ where « is the average intercept.
Proportional batch effects are characterized by differences in the batch recoveries. The
proportional batch effect for batch 1, for example, is the difference between the recovery (slope)
for batch 1 and the average recovery for all batches. Using the notation in Table 6-18, the
proportional effect (also called the recovery effect) for batch 1 is denoted by PrP-
For those analytes providing sufficient data, F-tests were performed to determine the
significance of the fixed and proportional batch effects. In virtually all cases where batch effects
were detected, they were due to variations in the slopes from batch to batch. Therefore, a second
statistical model containing a constant intercept (i.e., a, = <* in the full batch effects model) was
fitted to the data for each analyte. This model is called the batch slopes (BS) model because it can
be used to test for significant differences in the recoveries (slopes) between batches.
The BS model was used to estimate recoveries for each batch, overall average recovery,
and predicted concentrations at each spike level. Statistical F-tests were performed to test for
significant background levels and batch effects. Background levels are indicated when the
estimated intercept is found to be significantly different from zero and batch effects are indicated
when at least one of the estimated batch slopes is found to be significantly different from the
others. Predicted concentrations at each spike level were calculated from the estimated intercept
and average recovery.
For some analytes it was not possible to fit either the FB or BS models because there were
insufficient data after applying the DQO restriction criteria. In these cases a simple linear
regression (SLR) model was used to estimate average recovery and test for significant background
levels. However, using the SLR model, it is not possible to test for significant batch effects.
78
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Although the analysis established that there were statistically significant batch effects for
most of the analytes it was decided that there would be no adjustments made to the measured
concentrations of the study samples. Thus, a model was developed in which the differences in
recoveries from batch to batch were treated as random effects; thus affecting the precision of the
analytical method. The model assumes that the standard deviation of the measured concentration
has two components: (1) a component associated with the within-batch measurement error,
estimated by the mean squared error (MSB) from the BS model; and (2) a random component
associated with the random-batch effects. The standard deviation of the ith measured
concentration (t^) at spiked concentration SCj was computed as:
SD(C,,) =
where MSB is the mean squared error from the BS model, and SD(pj) is the sample standard
deviation of the estimated batch recoveries. According to this model, the standard deviation
increases with the concentration of the sample; however, it is not necessarily proportional to the
concentration. When there was insufficient data to fit the BS model, the square root of the MSB
from the SLR model was used to estimate the standard deviation of the predicted concentration.
Approximate prediction bounds on the individual measured concentrations were calculated
by adding plus or minus three times the estimated standard deviation to the estimated predicted
concentration. The probability that an individual measured concentration will fall within the
prediction interval is approximately 99% according to asymptotic distribution theory.
6.5.3 Results
The results of the statistical analyses are summarized in Tables 6-19 and 6-20. Table 6-19
contains an estimate of the average recovery, its standard error (SB), and the estimated batch
recoveries for each analyte. When there was sufficient data, the individual batch recoveries were
estimated from the BS model, otherwise the SLR model was used to calculate the average
recovery.
For each compound, a hypothesis test was performed to determine if the average recovery
was significantly different (at the 5% significance level) from 100%. The result of this hypothesis
test is denoted by an " * " next to the estimated average recovery. The average recoveries were
determined to be significantly less than 100% for nine compounds, and the lowest average
recovery was estimated to be 66.1% for 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF. There was only one compound,
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF, for which the average recovery is statistically greater than 100%.
80
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The individual estimated batch recoveries are shown in the remaining columns of Table 6-19.
Also presented are the results of the hypothesis tests for differences among the batch recoveries.
Notice that there are significant batch effects for virtually all analytes. However, because there
were no apparent patterns to the batch effects, it was decided to treat the batch effects as random.
This means that no "batch" corrections were made to the measured concentrations of the study
samples. Instead, as discussed in the previous section, the batch effects were treated as random
and included in the estimated precision of the analytical method.
Table 6-20 contains the model-derived predicted average concentration and estimated
coefficient of variation (CV) for each analyte and spike level. For each analyte, a hypothesis test
was performed to determine if the predicted concentration in the control sample was greater than
zero at the 5% significance level. For example, the predicted concentration of 2,3,7,8-TCDD in the
control samples was estimated to be 8.90 pg/g and this estimate is significantly greater than zero
at the 5% significance level. This is consistent with the fact that 2,3,7,8-TCDD was detected in all
five control samples. The background concentrations were determined to be significantly greater
than zero for six of the seven PCDDs (not including 1,2,3,4,7,8/1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD because the
individual isomers are already represented) and for four of the nine PCDFs (1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF is
not included because of insufficient data).
In general, the relative precision of measured concentrations is much better for PCDDs than
PCDFs. At the control level, the CVs of the measured concentrations for the four PCDFs which
had significant background levels were between 13% and 48%. All of the CVs for the PCDFs
were less than 21% in the spiked samples. The CVs at the control level for the six PCDDs with
significant background levels were between 5% and 20%. Although this might be explained by
the higher concentration levels of the PCDDs, the relative precision for measuring PCDDs is also
much better in the spiked samples. With the exception of 1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDD, the CVs for PCDD
measurements are between 3% and 10% in spiked samples while the CVs for the PCDF
measurements in spiked samples were between 2% and 21%.
In general, the linear model provided a good fit to the measured concentrations for most
analytes. This is evident in the figures presented in Appendix D. There does appear to be some
lack of fit for compounds 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF and 1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDD. The lack of fit for
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF is most probably due to the rather low measured concentration of 73 pg/g in
batch 3 at the high spike level. The measured concentrations for 1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDD were reported
as a combined value with the 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD and therefore could not be effectively evaluated
using the linear model.
83
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6.5.4 Summary of QC Data
The results from the statistical analysis of the QC data are summarized as follows:
1. Nine of the analytes had estimated average recoveries that were found to be less than
100% at the 5% significance level and one analyte had an estimated average recovery
that was significantly greater than 100%. The estimated average recoveries were
between 66.1% and 124% for all analytes.
2. There are statistically significant differences in the recoveries from batch to batch for
most of the analytes. However, it is recommended that no batch adjustment be made
to the study samples. Instead, the estimated measurement precision will account for
the batch effects.
3. Measurement precision, determined by the estimated coefficients of variation in the
control samples, is generally between 5% and 20% for the PCDDs and between 13%
and 48% for the PCDFs. For the spiked samples, the PCDDs had CVs between 3% and
10%, and the PCDFs had CVs between 2% and 21%. These estimated CVs include
random batch effects.
4. Statistically significant background levels of four PCDFs and six PCDDs were identified
in the control samples.
5. The relationship between measured and spiked concentrations is generally linear over
the range of spiked concentrations.
84
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7.0 STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY
There were three objectives for the statistical analysis of FY87 NHATS data:
1. Estimate average concentration levels in the adipose tissue of individuals in the
U.S. population and in various demographic subpopulations,
2. Construct confidence intervals for these averages, and
3. Determine if average concentration levels of chlorinated dioxins and furans in the
U.S. population differ significantly by any of the four demographic factors
(geographic region, age, race, and sex).
The statistical analysis methods used in this report are based on an additive model for the
demographic effects. Previous studies of the effect of using composite samples demonstrated the
validity of the additive model. A technique of iterative weighted generalized least squares was
used to estimate model parameters. The resulting estimates are approximately normal for large
samples. This approximate normality was used in constructing confidence intervals and
hypothesis tests. The remainder of this section provides details of the statistical model and
process as well as references to background work.
7.1 STATISTICAL MODEL
The use of composite samples for determination of the levels of PCDDs and PCDFs created
a need to reevaluate the approach to estimate general population levels of these compounds. The
statistical models previously used to assess NHATS data for OC1 pesticides and PCBs using
individual sample data were not adequate for extrapolating the composite sample data. Section
7.1.1 discusses the background on the development of a new statistical model, the additive model,
which is presented in Section 7.1.2.
7.1.1 Background
Mack and Panebianco (1986) developed and used a "multiplicative" model to analyze the
composite sample data from the NHATS FY82 Broad Scan Analysis Study. In their model the
analyte concentrations in a composite sample are represented as a product of fixed and random
effects associated with geographic and demographic characteristics of individuals who contributed
specimens to the samples. Orban et al. (1987) studied this problem further and recommended the
"additive" model which assumes additive effects of the donors' geographic and demographic
characteristics.
85
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The multiplicative and additive models were later evaluated by Orban and Lordo (1989).
They showed that under certain distributional assumptions, both models produce asymptotically
unbiased estimates of average concentration levels in the target populations. However, the
multiplicative model requires that the sampling and measurement errors be distributed according
to lognormal distributions. No specific distributional forms are required to achieve asymptotically
unbiased estimates using the additive model. Orban and Lordo (1989) also compared the two
models using simulated composite sample data which were generated from actual specimen data
obtained in the FY83 NHATS. Their analysis demonstrated, using actual NHATS data, that the
standard errors of the estimates from these models are nearly equal.
Following the study, the additive model was chosen to be used in the FY87 NHATS and
all future NHATS for the following reasons: (1) under very general assumptions, the additive
model produces asymptotically unbiased estimates of average concentration levels in the
population, and (2) the additive model establishes a more tractable relationship between the
distribution of analyte concentrations in individuals and the distribution of measured
concentrations from the composite samples. The second reason is particularly important because
individual specimens are collected but composites are chemically analyzed.
7.1.2 The Additive Model
Table 7-1 lists the categories of the four analysis factors of interest to NHATS. The
additive model assumes that the four analysis factors have fixed additive effects on the average
concentrations in specimens. This assumption creates 48 subpopulations defined by the
4x3x2x2 unique combinations of categories.
Table 7-1. NHATS Analysis Factors and Categories
Analysis factor Category
Census region Northeast
North Central
South
West
Age 0-14 years
15-44 years
45+ years
Sex Male
Female
Race group Caucasian
Noncaucasian
86
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In addition to the four analysis factors, there are three ancillary factors that are assumed
to have random effects on NHATS data. They are (1) sampling of MSAs, (2) sampling of
individuals within MSAs, and (3) measurement of analyte concentrations in the composite
samples. The second factor, sampling individuals from MSAs, also includes the effects of selecting
specimens from individual donors. The first two ancillary factors have random effects on the
actual concentrations in individual specimens, and the third has a random effect on the measured
concentrations of composites.
From the assumptions above, the actual concentration in a specimen from the i-th donor
in MSA j, census region k, age group t, sex m, and race group n, is represented by
CRk + \ + sm + *n + MSAJ
where
\i is a constant
CRk is the fixed effect of census region k; k = 1,...,4
A, is the fixed effect of age group f; { = 1,2,3
Sm is the fixed effect of sex m; m = 1,2
Rn is the fixed effect of race group n; n = 1,2
MSAj is the random effect of selecting MSA j; j = 1,2,...
GJJ is the random effect of selecting individual i in MSA j.
Furthermore, to uniquely define the parameters, we let
£=1 fi=l m=l n=l
The random effects MSAjk and eijk are assumed to have independent error distributions
with mean zero and variances o^ and o2, respectively. Also, because of evidence from previous
NHATS and other environmental studies that the variation in specimen concentrations increases
with average concentration levels, it is assumed that o2 = b2|i2, where (is is the average
concentration level is subpopulation s. For notational simplicity we let
87
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CRk + At + Sm + Rn
for some particular combination of indices k, {, m, and n.
This defines the model for the actual concentration in a specimen collected in the survey.
However, the specimens are composited prior to chemical analysis. Thus, data are obtained from
the chemical analyses of composite samples. Letting Yh represent the measured concentration of
composite h (h = 1,. . ., C), the natural additive effects of compositing imply that
where Cijs is the actual concentration in specimen i from MSA j and subpopulation s; yh is a
random measurement error; Mh is the number of specimens in composite h; and Ch(i,j,s) is equal
to 1 if specimen (i,j,s) is in composite h, and is equal to zero, otherwise. The error distribution
of yh has mean zero and variance o^.
At this point the notation for representing the model is rather complex. However, the
main points can be illustrated using matrix notation. Let
, Av A2, Sv
be the 8x1 vector of fixed effects and /.A = (/i,,. . . , ju,48)' be a 48x1 vector representing the
48 subpopulation average concentrations. Then
where X is a 48x8 design matrix. Letting Y = (Y]7. . ., Yc)' be the Cxi vector of measured
composite concentrations, Orban and Lordo (1989) show that the expected value of Y is
88
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E(Y) = ZXp = Dp ,
where Z is a Cx48 composite design matrix. Thus, according to the additive model, both the
actual concentrations of the individual specimens and the measured concentrations of the
composite samples have expected values that are linear combinations of the additive effects of the
fixed analysis factors.
Orban and Lordo (1989) also show that the variance-covariance matrix of Y is a block
diagonal matrix that depends on 0^,0^, and o^.
7.2 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
This section describes the specific methods used to achieve the statistical objectives. The
estimation methods are discussed in Section 7.2.1 and the hypothesis testing procedures are
presented in Section 7.2.2.
7.2.1 Estimation
The specific quantities estimated for the FY87 NHATS are the average analyte
concentrations in the adipose tissue of the U.S. population and the averages for each of the
marginal populations defined by the categories listed in Table 7-1. The estimates were calculated
in three steps:
1. The additive model parameters associated with the four analysis factors were
estimated using a method called iterative weighted generalized least squares
(IWGLS).
2. Estimates of average concentration levels in all 48 subpopulations defined by the
analysis factors were calculated from the parameter estimates.
3. National and marginal population estimates were obtained by taking weighted
averages of the appropriate subpopulation estimates. Weights were proportional
to the population counts of the 48 subpopulations from the 1980 U.S. census.
89
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According to the model described in Section 7.1.2, the vector of measured composite
sample concentrations, denoted by
Y = (Ylt...tYJr ,
has a multivariate distribution with mean
E(Y) =
and a variance-covariance matrix V. The vector
p = (n, CRr C/^, C/^, Av A
2,
is the vector of fixed effects to be estimated.
To obtain asymptotically unbiased estimates of the fixed effects it is not necessary to make
any assumptions about the form of the distributions of the random effects. If the variance-
covariance matrix V were known, the method of generalized least squares (GLS) produces
estimates of p that are unbiased and have minimum variance among all unbiased estimates.
Furthermore, if the errors are normally distributed, the GLS estimates are equivalent to the
maximum likelihood estimates. The GLS estimate of p is
P = (D'V-lDylD'V~lY
Unfortunately, V depends on three unknown variance components (o^, o^, and o^) as well as the
vector p. Therefore, Orban and Lordo (1989) proposed a method involving iterative weighting.
Thus, the method is called iterative weighted generalized least squares (IWGLS).
90
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Starting values for the fixed effect parameters and estimates of the variance components
were calculated using a maximum likelihood procedure. This step was performed using the P3V
program in the BMDP program package. The resulting estimate of V was then used in the GLS
formula to produce a revised estimate of p. Each time the GLS formula was applied, the estimate
of V was updated. This process was continued until certain convergence criteria were met.
Orban and Lordo (1989) discuss this method in more detail and describe special computer
programs for implementing IWGLS. They also provide formulas for calculating the standard
errors of the estimates.
An estimate of the average concentration level in each of the 48 subpopulations was then
calculated by
Weighted averages of the appropriate subpopulation predicted concentrations were then
calculated to estimate marginal averages for the categories of each analysis factor. For example,
the average concentration in the Northeast census region was estimated by the weighted average
of predicted concentrations in all subpopulations in the Northeast region. Marginal estimates
were calculated for four census regions, three age groups, two sexes, and two race groups. The
U.S. population estimate was calculated in a similar manner. An approximate 95% confidence
interval for each estimate was calculated by adding and subtracting two times the standard error
of the estimate.
7.2.2 Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis tests were performed to determine if average concentration levels differ
significantly by any of the geographic or demographic factors. The specific hypotheses tested
were:
H,: CR, = CR2 = CR3 = CR4 = 0,
H2: A, = A2 = A3 = 0,
H3: Rj = R2 = 0, and
H4: S, = S2 = 0.
91
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The hypothesis, H17 for example, states that there are no differences in average concentration
levels among the four census regions. The alternative hypothesis is that there is at least one pair
of regions for which the average concentrations are different. The results from these hypothesis
tests are somewhat related to the confidence intervals for averages in individual subpopulations.
Generally, if the confidence intervals for any pair of subpopulation averages do not intersect, then
the hypothesis of no differences among subpopulations is likely to be rejected. However, the
contrapositive is not always true.
In order to test these hypotheses, it was necessary to make specific distribution
assumptions for the random effects. It was assumed that the errors associated with sampling
MSAs, sampling individuals within MSAs, and measuring concentrations were independent and
normally distributed. The additive effect of compositing specimens suggests that the normality
assumption for sampling error is reasonable because concentrations of individuals are averaged
in the composite sample. Statistical theory states that averages and sums are approximately
normally distributed. Distributional assumptions were tested for all analytes using probability
plots and residual analysis. The model validation results are discussed later in Section 8.5.
The likelihood ratio method was used to test hypotheses Hj through H4. According to
asymptotic theory, the log of the ratio of the likelihood functions (calculated under the full and
null hypothesis models) has approximately a chi squared distribution. The number of degrees of
freedom is equal to the number of independent parameters constrained under the null hypothesis.
Orban and Lordo (1989) wrote computer programs to perform these tests.
92
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8.0 RESULTS
This section contains the results of the statistical analysis of the FY87 NHATS for
PCDDs and PCDFs in human adipose tissue. The analysis was performed on data obtained
from 48 composite samples, each containing an average of 18 adipose tissue specimens from
sampled cadavers and surgical patients.
A descriptive summary of the data is provided in Section 8.1 and the results of the
formal statistical analyses are presented in Sections 8.2 and 8.3. Section 8.4 provides estimated
rates of change of selected PCDD and PCDF concentrations. Section 8.5 describes the outlier
detection procedures that identified potential data errors to be corrected prior to conducting
the statistical analysis. Finally, Section 8.6 discusses the steps that were taken to demonstrate
the validity of the statistical methodology applied to the FY87 NHATS data.
8.1 DATA RESTRICTIONS AND DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Prior to conducting the statistical analysis, the data were classified according to the
specified data restrictions and data qualifiers. For each of the target analytes, Table 8-1 shows
the number of composite samples for which the measured concentrations were restricted or
qualified.
Data restrictions indicate whether specific data quality objectives (DQOs) were met
during chemical analysis. In the data listings of Appendix A, the data restrictions are indicated
by C, coelution; F, fragmented peaks; I, ion ratio criterion not met; P, peak separation; and R,
IQS recovery criterion not met. If any of the data restrictions were noted for a particular
sample and analyte, the measured concentration was not included in the data summaries or
statistical analyses. For example, 15 of the 48 composites failed at least one of the DQOs for
2,3,7,8-TCDF. Thus, there are only 33 unrestricted measurements. Preliminary analyses
demonstrated that significant biases can occur if restricted measurements are included in the
population estimates.
Data qualifiers are defined in terms of the analytical method's limit of detection (LOD)
for each analyte. The analyte is reported as not detected (ND) if the measured concentration
is below the LOD, trace (TR) if it is between the LOD and five times the LOD, and positive
quantifiable (PQ) if it is greater than five times the LOD. Measured concentrations are
reported only for detected (i.e., TR and PQ) analytes. Table 8-1 shows the number of PQ, TR,
and ND measurements for each- analyte among the unrestricted composites. For example, of
the 33 unrestricted measurements of 2,3,7,8-TCDF, 32 were positive quantifiable and one was a
trace value.
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Table 8-2 gives a summary of the unrestricted data for FY87 NHATS PCDDs and PCDFs.
The average, standard deviation, minimum, median, and maximum concentrations were
calculated from the unrestricted measurements. However, in calculating these statistics, the
value of LOD/2 was used in place of the measured concentration whenever the analyte was
not detected. In some cases, the minimum is reported as < LOD, where LOD is the smallest
detection limit reported for samples in which the analyte was not detected. The average LOD
for all samples and the percent detected are also presented. Detailed data summaries are
provided in Appendix E.
The results presented in Table 8-2 and Appendix E are based on simple unweighted
averages of the measured concentrations from the composite samples. As such they only
summarize the data. Statistical conclusions and estimates of population average concentration
levels should only be based on the statistical analysis presented in Sections 8.3 and 8.4.
8.2 POPULATION ESTIMATES
Not all of the analytes provided sufficient data to warrant a meaningful statistical
analysis. Two criteria were used to determine which analytes would be statistically analyzed.
First, the analyte must be detected (TR or PQ) in at least 50% of the unrestricted composites.
This ensures that there will be minimal bias caused by substituting LOD/2 for the measured
concentration whenever the analyte was not detected by the analytical method. Also, because
sufficient data are needed to estimate model parameters associated with the four analysis
factors and three variance analytes, it was decided that a minimum of 30 unrestricted
measurements was needed to achieve sufficient precision for the population estimates. Thus,
of the original 16 analytes (the pair 1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDD and 1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD is counted as one
analyte because they could not be separated in most samples) there were nine that met both
criteria for performing statistical analyses.
For each of the nine analytes analyzed statistically, Table 8-3 lists the estimated average
concentration in the entire U.S. population and in each of the categories defined by the four
analysis factors. Also presented is the relative standard error (percent) for each estimate. The
estimates and standard errors are based on the additive model analysis described in Section
7.2. The estimates are asymptotically unbiased and were adjusted for population percentages
based on the 1980 U.S. Census.
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The standard errors are used to characterize the statistical uncertainty in the individual
estimates. Uncertainty of an estimate is best expressed by calculating a confidence interval.
Approximate 95% confidence intervals are calculated by adding plus or minus two times the
standard error to the estimate. For example, the national average concentration of 2,3,7,8-
TCDD was estimated to be 5.38 pg/g with a relative standard error of 6%. Thus the
approximate 95% confidence interval for the national average is 5.38 ± 0.65 pg/g (4.73 to 6.03
pg/g calculated as 5.38 ± 2x0.06x5.38).
Estimates of the average concentrations in the population categories defined by the four
analysis factors are presented even if the effects of those factors were not found to be
statistically significant. For example, the regional estimates of 2,3,7,8-TCDD average
concentrations range from 4.54 pg/g in the West to 6.02 pg/g in the North East. However, as
will be discussed in Section 8.3, the differences among regions for 2,3,7,8-TCDD were not
found to be statistically significant.
The age group estimates in Table 8-3 suggest that the concentrations of nearly all
analytes increase with the age of the donor. All of the analytes occur at higher concentrations
in the oldest age group (45+ years). However, conclusions about the age group effects are
based on the statistical tests discussed in the next section.
8.3 HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Statistical hypothesis tests were conducted for each of the target analytes to determine if
there are statistically significant differences in average concentrations between individuals
from different geographic regions, age groups, sex groups, and race groups. The tests were
based on likelihood ratio tests using the additive model analysis as described in Section 7.2.
Table 8-4 lists the attained significance levels for the tests associated with the four
analysis factors. The attained significance level is the smallest significance level that will result
in rejection of the hypothesis that there are no differences between population averages. For
example, the differences among estimated averages of 2,3,7,8-TCDD in the four census regions
could only be considered significant at the 0.15 level of significance. On the other hand, the
differences in age group averages are significant at the 0.002 level. A 5% (0.05) level of
significance is generally the smallest level used to declare statistical significance.
It is clear from Table 8-4 that there are statistically significant differences among the
average concentrations in the three age groups. The differences in concentrations between
each age group for each compound, except TCDF, were found to be significant. For each of
the nine analytes (Table 8-3), the highest average concentration is found in the oldest age
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group (45+ years) and, except for TCDF, the lowest is found in the youngest age group (0-14
years).
The only other statistically 'significant finding, at the 0.05 level of significance, was that
there are possible regional differences in the average concentrations of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF. The
average concentration in the Western census region was estimated to be 4.49 pg/g compared
to the national average of 9.70 pg/g. The highest concentrations of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF were
found in the North East census region (13.7 pg/g). This regional effect is discussed further in
Section 9.0 in consideration of the comparison of the FY87 and FY82 broad scan effort.
Some potential difference in the estimated average concentration between Caucasian and
non-caucasian and males and females are noted for each of the PCDDs and PCDFs presented
in Table 8-3. However, these differences were not statistically significant for any of the
modeled compounds based on the statistical hypotesis tests which are summarized in
Table 8-4.
8.4 ESTIMATED RATES OF CHANGE OF SELECTED FCDD AND FCDF
CONCENTRATIONS
The additive model analysis compared mean concentrations across three age groups,
lower (0-14 years), middle (15-44 years) and upper (45+ years). The analysis showed that
significant differences existed among mean age group concentrations for the nine modeled
analytes. However, the analysis did not quantify rates of change between ages. Therefore, a
second set of analyses using linear regression was performed to address this issue.
For each analyte, the measured concentration in each composite sample was regressed
against the mean age of all individuals whose specimens had been pooled into that composite.
Two linear regressions were performed, the first to estimate the average rate of change in
concentration levels from the lower to the middle age groups and the second to estimate the
average rate from the middle to the upper age group. These rates were taken as the
regression slopes times ten to convert them into rates of pg/g per decade. The plot of the
measured concentration of 2,3,7,8-TCDD versus average age with estimated regression lines is
presented in Figure 8-1.
The average ages taken over all composites from the lower, middle, and upper age
groups were 3.0, 30.8, and 65.0 years, respectively. Therefore, the first rate was the estimated
average rate of change per decade from ages 0-31 years, and the second rate was the
estimated average rate of change per decade from ages 32+ years. These rates were further
standardized by dividing them by the arithmetic average concentration in the first age group
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within each regression set. That is, the first rate was standardized by dividing by the mean
concentration for the lower age group, and the second rate was standardized by dividing by
the mean concentration for the middle age group. The standardized rates of change were
then reported as rates of change per decade, relative to the mean concentration at the
beginning of the time interval analyzed. Because the average ages tend to cluster around
three points, it is not possible to characterize how the rates change over time. The analysis
only provide estimates of the average rates in the two age intervals.
Table 8-5 displays national average concentrations for selected PCDDs and PCDFs, with
the two rates of changes expressed as pg/g per decade and percentage of initial mean
concentrations per decade, respectively. For example, the national average concentration of
2,3,7,8-TCDD is 5.38 pg/g (as reported in Table 8-3). The rate of change between the lower
and middle age groups was estimated by the regression slope as 0.83 pg/g per decade, with a
standard error of 0.17. The average concentration of TCDD in the lower age group was 2.06
pg/g (not shown), so the rate of 0.83 divided by 2.06 resulted in the standardized rate of 40%
per decade. Similarly, the rate of change between the middle and upper a*ge groups was
1.52 pg/g per decade, with a standard error of 0.20. The average concentration of
2,3,7,8-TCDD in the middle age group was 4.33 pg/g (not shown), so the rate of 1.52 divided
by 4.33 resulted in a standardized rate of 35% per decade.
The rate of change of 2,3,7,8-TCDD of 1.52 pg/g decade from the middle to the upper
age groups is similar to the value of 2 ppt/decade reported by Patterson et al (1985). Their
study investigated adipose tissue samples from individuals of age 35-85, whereas the present
study analyzed composite samples from individuals representing all age groups.
All of the rates of change shown in Table 8-5, except for the first rate for 2,3,7,8-TCDF,
were positive and highly significant (p < 0.0001). For seven of the nine analytes shown, the
rates of change per decade increased after age 31. However, when the rates were converted
to a percent of initial average concentration, eight of the nine analytes showed a decreased in
standardized rates per decade after age 31.
8.5 OUTLIER DETECTION
Prior to conducting the statistical analyses of the FY87 NHATS data, outlier detection
procedures were performed to identify possible data entry errors and errors associated with
the analytical method (Rogers, 1989). Outlier detection was performed on four types of data:
(1) measured concentrations of native analytes, (2) internal quantitation standard recoveries,
(3) LODs, and (4) percent lipid values for composite and QC samples.
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Logic checks were performed to identify obvious inconsistencies in the data. For
example, logic checks would reveal records having recorded concentrations but a data qualifier
of "not detected." The extreme studentized deviate (ESD) test statistic was applied to the
residuals of a simple linear regression model fit to the measured concentrations and recoveries
as another means of detecting outliers. Finally, the secondary outlier procedures were
performed using tests for normality, multivariate techniques, and graphical techniques
(boxplots).
No data problems were detected in the logic checks phase. However, a total of 62 of
1620 data items were identified as potential outliers. Of these, total 45 were found to be
correct readings by the analytical laboratory. The other 17 data items were incorrect readings
which were recalculated. The laboratory also reported additional data changes resulting from
its own review of the outlier analysis. All data corrections were made to the master dataset
before proceeding with the statistical analysis.
8.6 MODEL VALIDATION
Three types of analyses were performed to evaluate the adequacy of the additive model
for use on the FY87 NHATS data. All three analyses were based on comparisons of the
observed (i.e., measured) and predicted concentrations for the composite samples. Predicted
concentrations were calculated using the statistical analysis approaches discussed in Section
7.2. Residuals, which were also used in the model validation analysis, were calculated by
taking the differences between the observed and predicted concentrations.
Model validation analyses included (1) residual analysis, (2) normal probability plots,
and (3) R-squared analysis. The use of the Shapiro-Wilk tests for normality was also
considered. However, in this application, the Shapiro-Wilk test is not appropriate because the
data are correlated and variances increase with increasing concentrations.
The residual plots confirmed the model assumption that the variance of the measured
concentrations will increase with the average concentration. The plots also show that the
distribution of residuals is symmetric. This supports the use of normal models for the
sampling and measurement errors. As discussed in Section 7.2.2 the normality assumption is
important for ensuring the validity of the hypothesis tests. Nearly all of the probability plots
were linear, thus supporting the normality assumption for the errors. Those that were not
linear could be explained by the larger variances at the high concentration levels.
104
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Finally, Table 8-6 lists the R-squared correlations between the observed and predicted
composite concentrations calculated for each analyte. R-squared can be interpreted as the
percent of the total variability in the data (observed concentrations) that can be explained by
the model. For example, 81% of the variation in measured composite concentrations of TCDD
can be explained by the fixed effects of the additive model. Overall, these correlations
demonstrate excellent agreement between the data and the model. Eight of the nine analytes
produced R-squared correlations of at least 68%. The lowest value of R-squared (46%) occurs
with 2,3,7,8-TCDF. This can be explained by the relatively small age effect on 2,3,7,8-TCDF
concentrations. Although there were statistically significant age effects for all nine analytes,
the ratio of average concentrations in the lower and upper age groups was only 1.2 (2.45/1.97)
for 2,3,7,8-TCDF. The ratios exceeded 2.5 for all the other analytes. Thus, for each of these
analytes, the additive model accounts for a large percentage of the total variability in the data.
Table 8-6. R-Squared Correlation3 Between Predicted and Observed
Concentrations for FY87 Dioxins and Furans
Chemical R2 (%)
2,3,7,8-TCDF 46
2,3,7,8-TCDD 81
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF 68
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD 85
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF 87
1,2,3,4,7,8/1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD 88
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDD 79
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD 88
OCDD 82
a R-squared is the square of the Pearson correlation coefficient. It
represents the percent of variability in the data that is explained
by the predictive model.
105
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9.0 COMPARISON OF FY87 DATA WITH FY82 AND VA/EPA DATA BASES
The analysis of the FY87 NHATS specimens as composites provides a reference point
for body burden levels of PCDDs and PCDFs in the general U.S. population. The data
generated from the analysis of the FY87 NHATS specimens can be compared with other data
bases that have been developed from the analyses of samples collected in North America and
Europe. The documentation on the total effort (the compositing design, chemical analysis and
statistical treatment of data) offers a means of comparing the significance of the FY87 NHATS
data set with two other analysis programs conducted using the NHATS specimen repository.
These two studies are the FY82 NHATS broad scan analysis effort and a collaborative study
conducted between the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and EPA's Office of Toxic
Substances (VA/EPA). The comparisons of these studies extends the utility of the data bases
in establishing trends in body burdens of PCDDs and PCDFs and identifies limitations in
comparing the results to other data sets. This section gives an overview of these programs
and presents comparisons of the compositing designs (FY82 and FY87 NHATS), analytical
procedures, results, and statistical methodologies.
The objectives of the FY82 and FY87 NHATS were quite different from those of the
VA/EPA study. The FY82 and FY87 NHATS studies were conducted to develop baseline
estimates of tissue concentrations. The FY82 and FY87 NHATS tissue specimens were
obtained from cadavers and surgical patients. The target population was all
noninstitutionalized U.S. citizens in the conterminous 48 states. On the other hand, the
primary objective of the VA/EPA study was to compare PCDD and PCDF levels in Vietnam
veterans with those found in similar groups of non-Vietnam veterans and civilians. The
VA/EPA study was a retrospective study based on archived NHATS specimens. Only
specimens from male donors born between 1936 and 1954 were included in the VA/EPA study.
Despite the differences in study objectives, it is possible to compare the average
concentrations found in the VA/EPA study and those found in the 15-44 year age group from
the two NHATS surveys. The donors in the VA/EPA study were all between 17 and 46 years
old at the time of their death or surgery. In Section 8.0 it was concluded that the only factor
consistently affecting concentrations of dioxins and furans was the age of the donor.
Additional information on the programs are presented in Section 9.1. Comparisons of the
study designs, chemical analysis procedures, and the significant results are presented in
Sections 9.2, 9.3, and 9.4, respectively.
107
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9.1 OVERVIEW OF THE ANALYTICAL PROGRAMS
The FY82 NHATS specimens were analyzed as composites as part of a broad scan
analysis program conducted to expand the utility of the NHATS program beyond the
monitoring of organochlorine pesticides and PCBs. Forty-six composite samples were
analyzed for tetra- through octachloro PCDDs and PCDFs. The FY82 effort was designed to
provide body burden estimates for the general U.S. population based on age, sex, and
geographic region.
The VA/EPA study used approximately 200 individual specimens collected from 1971
through 1982. The specimens were from adult males with birthdates between 1936 to 1954
who potentially might have served in the Vietnam War and who possibly had been exposed
to the herbicide Agent Orange. These specimens were categorized into three groups:
Vietnam veterans, veterans with no military records indicating service in Vietnam, and
civilians. The design of the study was intended to determine whether there was any possible
difference in the levels of 2,3,7,8-TCDD between groups. The analysis program, however,
provided data on all of the 2,3,7,8-substituted chlorinated dioxin and furan congeners. Hence,
this data base has generated a considerable amount of information that can be compared with
other data bases.
9.2 COMPARISON OF STUDY DESIGNS
Similar sampling designs were used for collecting tissue specimens in the FY82 and
FY87 NHATS. Both studies used a multi-staged sampling plan. The conterminous 48 states
were divided into strata; MSAs were selected with probabilities proportional to size; and
cooperators were solicited and assigned quotas for collecting specimens. There was a minor
difference only in the method of stratification. Prior to the FY85 NHATS, MSAs were selected
from strata denned by U.S. Census divisions. Beginning with the FY85 NHATS, sampling
strata were redefined to be the 17 geographic areas that resulted from the intersection of the
nine Census divisions and the ten EPA Regions (Panebianco DL, 1986a). A controlled
selection technique, known as the Keyfitz technique (Mack et al, 1984), was used to maximize
the probability of retaining MSAs used in previous years. As a result, there were 47 MSAs in
the FY87 design compared to 35 in FY82. Otherwise, the sampling designs for the FY82 and
FY87 were essentially the same.
A total of 763 specimens were used to generate the composites for the FY82 study, and
865 specimens were included in the composites for the FY87 study. As shown in Table 9-1,
the distributions of specimens among the various geographic and demographic subpopulations
were similar.
108
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Table 9-1. Marginal Comparisons of FY82 and FY87 NHATS Individual Specimens Used
for PCDD and PCDF Analysis
Category
No. of specimens (%)
FY82
FY87
1980 Census
population (%)
Census Region
Northeast 166(22)
North Central 206(27)
South 331(43)
West _60(8)
Total 763
Age Group
0-14 years 178(23)
15-44 years 312(41)
45+ years 273(36)
Total 763
Sex
Male 412(54)
Female 351(46)
Total 763
Race Group
Caucasian 632(83)
Non-Caucasian 131(17)
Total 763
175(20)
296(34)
289(33)
105(12)
865
146(17)
318(37)
401(46)
865
436(50)
429(50)
865
707(82)
158(18)
865
26
22
33
19
23
46
31
49
51
83
17
109
-------
The FY82 and FY87 NHATS had comparable compositing designs. One of the design
criteria for compositing FY87 specimens was to maintain similarity to the FY82 design.
Table 9-2 gives a comparison of the marginal percentages of composites in each of the
categories defined by the four analysis factors. Population percentages from the 1980 Census
are also provided.
Overall, the marginal percentages from the FY82 and FY87 NHATS agree reasonably
well with each other and with the census figures. The only differences are the FY87 NHATS
had more "pure sex" composites (31 versus 11) than FY82, while the FY82 NHATS had more
"pure race" composites (17 versus 8) than FY87.
Because the VA/EPA investigation was a retrospective study using surplus specimens
from the NHATS archives, the method used to select specimens was different from the
NHATS sampling strategy. Of the approximately 8,000 unused NHATS specimens collected
between 1971 and 1982, 528 were collected from males born between 1936 and 1954. However,
there was sufficient background information on only 494 donors. Specimens from 40 donors
who served in Vietnam were selected, along with randomly selected specimens from 80 non-
Vietnam military veterans. Finally, specimens from 80 civilian men were included in the study
by matching the birth year (±2 years) and sample collection year (±2 years) of two civilians
with each Vietnam veteran. Thus, a total of about 200 specimens from male donors between
the ages of 17 and 46 formed the basis for the VA/EPA study. Of the specimens identified,
successful analysis was achieved for 197 individuals.
Another major difference between the two NHATS and the VA/EPA study is that
specimens in the NHATS studies were composited prior to chemical analysis, while specimens
selected for the VA/EPA study were analyzed individually. This difference affects the way in
which the data are statistically analyzed, but, as discussed in Section 9.4.2, it does not affect
the comparison of average concentration levels.
9.3 COMPARISON OF ANALYTICAL PROCEDURES
To compare the data for the three studies, it is necessary to review the analytical
procedures (see Figure 9-1). While the analytical procedures used for the VA/EPA and FY87
efforts were fairly comparable, the figure illustrates that the FY82 approach was considerably
different. The changes in the analytical procedures were incorporated in VA/EPA and FY87
studies as an effort to improve the state-of-the-art of the analytical technology between the
time frames that each study was conducted.
110
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Table 9-2. Marginal Comparisons of FY82 AND FY87 NHATS Composite Designs
No. of Composites (%Y
Category
Census Region
North Central
Northeast
South
West
Total
Age Group
0-14 years
15-44 years
45+ years
Total
Sex
Pure male
Mixed
Pure female
Total
Race Group
Pure Caucasian
Mixed
Pure Non-Caucasian
Total
FY82
12 (26)
9(20)
19 (41)
-L(13)
46
12 (26)
17(37)
17_(37)
46
6(55)
35
_5_(45)
46
11 (65)
29
6(35)
46
FY87
15 (31)
9(19)
16 (33)
_8_(17)
48
11 (23)
17 (35)
20 (42)
48
16 (52)
17
15 (48)
48
8 (100)
40
-Q-( 0)
48
1980 Census
population %
26
22
33
19
23
46
31
49
51
83
17
The percent estimates for sex and race groups are calculated as the total number of pure
composites within each study design. For example, 6 of the 11 (55%) pure sex composites
in the FY82 study design were composed of males only.
Ill
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Each procedure required fortification with internal quantisation standards (IQS),
extraction, removal of bulk lipid, and separation of interferences from the PCDDs and PCDFs.
The techniques for all three studies were essentially equivalent. Extraction was achieved with
methylene chloride using a Tekmar Tissuemizer to promote thorough extraction of lipids.
Bulk lipid removal for the FY87 and the VA/EPA studies was conducted using identical
techniques, consisting of treatment with sulfuric acid-modified silica gel slurries and further
cleanup via a chromatographic column of the same material. Gel permeation chromatography
was used to remove the bulk lipids in the FY82 composites.
The separation of chemical interferences was achieved using Florisil (FY82 NHATS),
acidic alumina (VA/EPA), or neutral alumina (FY87 NHATS). Neutral alumina was used for
the FY87 samples rather than acidic alumina to improve method recovery and reduce possible
background contributions due to hepta- and octachloro-PCDDs. Previous efforts using Florisil
on the FY82 composites had demonstrated poor recovery of the hexa- through
octachloro-congeners (USEPA 1986a).
For the final cleanup of sample extracts, a carbon-based column was used. However,
as noted in Figure 9-1, three different carbon adsorbents were used between the studies. Two
separate extracts were cleaned for the FY82 NHATS composites. Because recovery of the
higher chlorinated compounds was poor, an aliquot of the extract taken through the GPC
cleanup, but not through Florisil chromatography, was taken through a PX-21/glass fiber
column to determine the hexa- through octachloro-PCDDs and PCDFs.
The AX-21/silica gel column used for the FY87 NHATS composites did not provide the
degree of cleanup demonstrated with the Carbopak C/Celite used with VA/EPA. This was
primarily noted through the detection of octachlorodiphenylethers that interfered with the
determination of 1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF and 2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF in the FY87 composites. The
HRGC/HRMS conditions varied across studies (Figure 9-1), depending on whether analyses
were conducted using a mass resolution of R = 3,000 or R = 10,000. The higher the R value,
the more specific the analyses and the higher the confidence in compound identification. The
pattern or fingerprint of the major PCDDs and PCDFs observed in the HRGC/HRMS
chromatograms for human adipose tissue was consistent across all these studies.
Two factors have the largest potential effect on data comparability among the three
studies: the type and number of IQS and the consistent use of analytical standards
(Figure 9-2). Only three IQS compounds were available for the FY82 composites. Since the
calculation for PCDDs and PCDFs is based on an isotope dilution principle, the limitation on
the FY82 composites is the assumption that all compounds will recover the same as the IQS.
Recovery data for the additional IQS compounds in the FY87 and VA/EPA studies demonstrate
113
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FY82
NHATS
EPA/VA
FY87
NHATS
2,3,7,8-TCDD
2,3,7,8-TCDF
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDD
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDD
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDD
1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDF
2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8,9-HpCDF
OCDD
OCDF
Internal Quantitation Standards
13C12-2,3,7,8-TCDD
13C12-2,3,7,8-TCDF
13C12-1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD
13C12-1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF
^C^-I^.S.SJ.S-HxCDD
13C12-1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF
13C12-1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD
13C12-1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF
13C12- OCDD
Internal Recovery Standard
13C12-1,2,3,4-TCDD
13C12-1,^2,3,7,^8,9-HxCDD
Quantitative
Qualitative
Figure 9-2. Comparison of analytical standards from the FY82, VA/EPA, and FY87 studies.
114
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that PCDDs and PCDFs recoveries differ depending on the degree of chlorination. For these
reasons, only the data for 2,3,7,8-TCDD, 2,3,7,8-TCDF, and OCDD are directly comparable
between the other two studies. Since the same sets of IQS standards were used between the
studies, the FY87 and VA/EPA studies are comparable.
The second factor, standard traceability, is another serious consideration. Figure 9-2
shows that all standards are directly comparable between the FY87 and the VA/EPA studies.
When considering the standards for the FY82 composites, only the 2,3,7,8-TCDD standard is
directly comparable across all three studies. The standards analyzed with the VA/EPA and
FY87 studies (including the 2,3,7,8-TCDD for FY82) were verified through participation in
interlaboratory comparisons and the analysis of an NBS standard reference material. The
results of these interlaboratory studies support the quantitation of results reported in these
studies and also promote the comparability between human tissue data sets generated by the
other laboratories participating in these studies.
9.4 COMPARISON OF RESULTS
The results from the FY87 NHATS, the FY82 NHATS, and the VA/EPA studies are
compared in this section. Because the .same study design was used for the two NHATS
surveys, it is possible to make a more detailed comparison of those two sets of results. A
statistical comparison of the FY82 and FY87 results is presented in Section 9.4.1. The VA/EPA
results are compared with the FY82 and FY87 NHATS in Section 9.4.2.
9.4.1 Statistical Comparison of FY82 and FY87 NHATS Results
The results from the FY82 and FY87 NHATS were statistically compared to determine if
there were significant changes in average PCDD and PCDF concentration levels over the five-
year period. However, as discussed in Section 9.3, advancements were made in the analytical
method for the FY87 survey. The most significant change was that additional internal
quantitative standards (IQSs) were available for the penta-, hexa-, and heptachloro-
compounds. Therefore, only results for the tetra- and octa- compounds are expected to be
directly comparable. Statistical comparisons were performed on all compounds for which data
were generated in both years. Comparisons were made, not only between the predicted
national averages, but also between the demographic profiles from the two surveys. The
profile analysis, discussed in detail later (9.4.1.3), examines possible changes in the differences
across demographic subpopulations. This type of comparison is valuable even if systematic
differences in concentration levels exist that can be attributed to the analytical methodologies.
115
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Statistical comparisons were possible only when sufficient data were available from
both surveys. The criteria for performing a model-based comparison were: (1) the chemical
must be detected in at least 50% of the composite samples each year/ and (2) there must be at
least 30 analyzed composite samples in each year. The additive model, described in
Section 7.0, was used for the model-based comparisons between the FY82 and FY87 NHATS.
Since the FY82 data were originally analyzed using a multiplicative model (EPA 1989), the
FY82 results presented in this comparison are different from those previously published
(USEPA 1990a).
Table 9-3 shows the type of comparison used for each of the target chemicals. Six
analytes met the criteria for a model-based (M) comparison. The other four analytes, analyzed
in both years, were compared in a descriptive manner using weighted averages (WA). This
approach is discussed later. (See 9.4.1.4.)
As discussed in Section 8.0, data restrictions derived from the data quality objectives
were imposed on the FY87 data but were not applied in FY82. Thus, in Table 9-3, the number
of composites listed for FY87 represents the number with unrestricted measurements, while
the number for FY82 is the total number of available composites.
The comparison of FY82 and FY87 results is divided into four parts. Section 9.4.1.1
compares the FY82 and FY87 results in terms of limits of detection (LODs) and the percent of
composite samples for which each analyte was detected. Estimates of the national averages
for the six analytes statistically analyzed using the additive model are compared in
Section 9.4.1.2. The results of the profile analyses are presented in Section 9.4.1.3. Finally, in
Section 9.4.1.4, a descriptive comparison of weighted national averages is presented for the
four analytes that were not statistically modeled.
9.4.1.1 Comparison of LODs and Prevalence Detected. Table 9-4 compares the
percent of composite samples in which the analytes were detected and the average detection
limit (LOD) for each year. In FY82, LODs were only calculated when the concentration was
either not detected (ND) or qualified as a trace (TR) value. Thus, the sample size for
calculating the average LOD in FY82 was often much less than the number of samples
analyzed. For example, TCDD was either not detected or found at a trace level in 13 of the 43
composite samples for the FY82 study. The average LOD reported for the 13 samples was
7.28 pg/g. In FY87, LODs were calculated for all composite samples.
116
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Table 9-3. Number of Composite Samples and Types of Statistical
Comparisons Made Between FY82 and FY87 NHATS Results
Number of composite
samples
Analyte
2,3,7,8-TCDF
2,3,7,8-TCDD
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD
HxCDFd
HxCDD"
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8,9-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD
OCDF
OCDD
FY82a
43
43
-
43
41
45
45
45
-
45
45
45
FY87"
33
36
43
39
35
9-45
39-41
27
46
42
23
32
Type of
comparison0
WA
M
-
M
M
WA
M
WA
-
M
WA
M
a Number of available measurements. Two outliers were removed for 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD.
b Number of unrestricted composite sample, measurements.
c WA = weighted averages
M = model results and profile analysis
- = no data available for FY82
d Analyte analysis results for specific isomers of HxCDF and HxCDD were combined
(summed) for comparisons between FY82 and FY87.
117
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There clearly was a significant improvement in the sensitivity of the analytical method
in FY87. The average detection limits in FY82 were in the range of 9 to 50 times higher than
those in FY87. This, most likely, explains the statistically significant increase in the percent of
samples in which TCDF and TCDD were detected between FY82 and FY87. For example,
2,3,7,8-TCDD was detected in only 74% of the samples in FY82 but was detected in 97% of the
samples in FY87. This difference (23%) is statistically significant; however, the average
detection limit was decreased from 7.28 pg/g to 0.291 pg/g. The average 2,3,7,8-TCDD
concentration in both years was estimated to be around 5.5 pg/g.
9.4.1.2 Comparison of National Average Estimates for Modeled Analytes. Table 9-5
shows the estimated national average concentrations for FY82 and FY87 and the estimated
difference (FY87-FY82) in concentrations for the six analytes statistically analyzed. The
standard error of each estimate and the significance level for testing that the difference is
different from zero also are provided. The test was based on the approximate t-statistic of the
form
NA87 NA82
t =
{•
where NA82 and NA87 are the FY82 and FY87 national average estimates and SE82 and SE87
their standard errors, respectively. Approximate significance levels were calculated using the
standard normal distribution.
Generally, levels less than 0.05 are used to indicate statistical significance. Using this
criterion, the average predicted concentrations of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF, 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD, and
HxCDD are significantly lower in FY87 than in FY82. However, as mentioned earlier,
additional internal quantisation standards were used in the FY87 analytical procedures. Thus,
we cannot conclude that the average concentration in the U.S. population changed between
FY82 and FY87. The differences may be due only to the changes in the analytical method.
Data from the VA/EPA study also demonstrated significantly different concentrations for
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF and 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD comparable with the FY87 levels. No significant
differences in the average or predicted levels of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and OCDD were noted between
FY82 and FY87. The same internal quantitation standards were used in both years for these
specific analytes.
119
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120
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9.4.1.3 Results of Profile Analysis. Profile analysis is a multivariate statistical
technique that is used to compare profiles of two or more populations. In this context, a
profile is a vector of estimates of subpopulation averages. An example of a profile is the set of
estimated average TCDD concentrations for the four geographic regions (NC, NE, S, and W)
in the FY87 NHATS.
Profile plots were used to make a visual assessment of the differences in the FY82 and
FY87 results. In order to determine what differences may exist and whether these difference
are statistically significant, a formal profile analysis was conducted.
Profile analysis tests a sequence of statistical hypotheses to determine how two or
more multivariate populations may differ. The hypotheses address the following questions in
order:
1. Are the profiles from the two fiscal years parallel?
2. Assuming the profiles are parallel, are they coincident?
3. Assuming the profiles are coincident, do they have equal levels?
Two profiles are said to be parallel if all pairwise differences between the average
concentrations across the levels of a demographic factor are equal. For coincident profiles, all
pairwise differences are equal to zero. Finally, coincident profiles are said to have equal levels
if there are no differences among the average concentrations at different level of a
demographic factor. The different types of profiles are illustrated in Figure 9-3.
Profile tests are performed sequentially. The hypothesis of coincident profiles is only
tested if the hypothesis of parallelism is not rejected. Similarly, the hypothesis of equal levels
is only tested if the hypotheses of parallelism and coincidence are not rejected. The third test
combines the FY82 and FY87 data to test for significant effects of the demographic factors.
This approach described by Johnson and Wichern (1982) was used to conduct the profile
analysis.
To provide the background for the profile analysis, Table 9-6 compares the FY82 and
FY87 significance levels from testing for differences among demographic groups. The additive
model was used to perform the tests, with the assumption of normally distributed errors for
both years. Although these assumptions were found to be reasonable for the FY87 data, the
large measurement errors from the chemical analysis of FY82 composites indicate that the
assumption of normality may not be true for the FY82 data. However, because of these data
in FY82, it is difficult to verify any distributional assumptions.
121
-------
Average
Concentration
Parallel Profiles
NC NE S
Census Region
W
Legend:
D=FY82
A. FY87
Average
Concentration
Coincident Profiles
NC NE s
Census Region
W
Legend:
D=FY82
A=FY87
Average
Concentration
Equal Profiles
— i — i i i
Legend:
D=FY82
A=FY87
NC
W
NE S
Census Region
Figure 9-3. Example of profile plots.
122
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123
-------
In FY82, measured concentrations for four of the six analytes were found to be
significantly different among the four census regions. In FY87, 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF was the only
analyte with significant regional differences. On the other hand, in FY87, age effects were
much more evident. In FY82, only 2,3,7,8-TCDD and 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD showed significant age
effects at the 0.05 significance level, and 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF and OCDD were significant at the
0.054 level. None of the analytes in either year showed significant differences in measured
concentrations among the different sex or race groups.
Profiles of the six modeled analytes in FY82 and FY87 are plotted for each of the four
analysis factors (region, age, race, and sex) in Figures 9-4 through 9-9. The estimated average
concentrations within each analysis factor and fiscal year are connected with straight lines.
The vertical lines define approximate 95% confidence limits of the estimates. The confidence
limits were calculated by adding ±2 times the standard error of the estimated average. The
estimated national averages with 95% confidence limits are also plotted.
The numerical results—estimated average concentrations and their standard errors—of the
profile analyses are presented in Tables 9-7 through 9-10. The estimated difference (FY87-
FY82) and their standard error for each region are also presented in each table. Finally, the
significance levels of sequential tests for parallel profiles, coincident profiles, and equal levels
are provided.
Profile analyses were performed for five of the six modeled analytes. Total HxCDD was
not included, because in FY82 only the total HxCDD was measured, while in FY87 each
individual isomer was measured. To perform the profile analysis on HxCDD, it would have
been necessary to combine the individual isomer data for FY87. This would have required
making certain assumptions that would produce extremely conservative results.
124
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Census Region Profiles
Table 9-7 shows that between FY82 and FY87 there are no differences at the 5%
significance level in the profiles of 2,3,7,8-TCDD, 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD, and OCDD.
Furthermore, based on the combined FY82 and FY87 data, there are no significant differences
in the concentrations of these analytes among the geographic regions (parallel profiles). The
profile comparisons for 2,3,7,8-TCDD and OCDD are consistent with the individual test results
(see Table 9-6), which indicate no significant geographic effects for these analytes. There was
a significant geographic effect for 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD in FY82, but the effect was not
statistically confirmed in FY87. However, the marginal significance (0.088 significance level) of
the combined tests for geographic effects and the fact that the South and West Census
Regions had the lowest estimated average concentrations in both FY82 and FY87 suggest the
possibility of geographic effects for 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD.
The profile analysis suggests that the differences in 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF and 1,2,3,7,8-
PeCDD concentrations between FY82 and FY87 are constant across all geographic regions
(parallel profiles). This could be due to changes in the body burden levels or, as suspected,
differences in the analytical methods. The hypothesis of coincident profiles was rejected at the
5% level for these two analytes. This could be explained by systematic differences in
measured concentrations. As mentioned earlier, because the profiles for 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF and
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD were not coincident, the combined test for geographic effects was not
performed. However, in both FY82 and FY87, the highest estimated average concentrations
were found in the Northeast Census Region. The geographic effect was found to be
statistically significant for 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF concentrations in both FY82 and FY87, but for
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD, it was only significant in FY82.
Age Group Profiles
The comparison of profiles by age is presented in Table 9-8. The profile analysis rejects
the hypothesis of parallel profiles at the 0.05 level for four of the five analytes, the only
exception being 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD. Even in this case, the test was marginally significant at
the 0.10 level. In FY87, the test for age effects (Table 9-6) was significant at the 0.05 level for
each of the modeled analytes. They were also significant or nearly significant at the 0.05 level
for the same analytes in FY82, but the estimated average concentrations of 2,3,7,8-TCDD,
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF, and 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD in FY82 were not increasing with age. Also, the
estimated concentrations of OCDD were increasing in FY82, the rate of increase is lower than
the rate observed in FY87. Thus, even though there were significant age effects for these four
analytes in both FY82 and FY87, the hypothesis of parallel profiles was rejected in each case.
135
-------
The hypothesis of parallel profiles for 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD was only marginally rejected
at the significance level of 0.10. In both FY82 and FY87, the estimated average concentrations
increased with age group, but the differences among age groups in FY82 were not statistically
significant, possibly because of large measurement errors. Also, the rate of increase of
estimated concentrations of 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD was lower in FY82 than in FY87. Assuming
that the profiles of 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD are parallel, the hypothesis of coincident profiles is not
rejected, but that of equal concentrations among the three age groups based on the combined
data is rejected at the 0.002 significance level.
Race and Sex Profiles
The profile analysis comparing race groups (Table 9-9) and sexes (Table 9-10) produced
results similar to those for age groups. The findings are: (1) there are no significant
differences in the profiles of 2,3,7,8-TCDD, 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD, and OCDD between FY82 and
FY87; (2) the estimated differences in the concentrations of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF and 1,2,3,7,8-
PeCDD between FY82 and FY87 are statistically significant and consistent across different age
groups and sexes; and (3) there are no significant differences in the concentrations of any of
these analytes among different age groups and sexes.
9.4.1.4 Weighted Average Comparison of Analytes Not Statistically Modeled. Four
analytes, measured in FY82 and FY87, but which did not meet the criteria for statistical
modeling in both years, were compared using weighted averages. First, the average
concentration of composites in each of the three age groups was computed for each analyte.
For example, the 2,3,7,8-TCDF averages in FY87 were 2.03, 1.34, and 2.50 pg/g in the youngest
to oldest age groups, respectively. Next, these averages were weighted by the population
percentages from the 1980 census. For 2,3,7,8-TCDF, the weighted average concentration in
FY87 was
1.86 (pg/g) = 0.23(2.03 pg/g) + 0.46(1.34 pg/g) + 0.31(2.50 pg/g).
This type of national average estimate is likely to be more accurate than the simple average of
the composite concentrations, because there was strong evidence from the statistical analysis
of FY87 modeled compounds that age has a significant effect on concentrations of PCDDs and
PCDFs in human adipose tissue. Additional calculations were needed to compare HxCDF
concentrations, since each of the HxCDF isomers were individually analyzed in FY87, while
only the total HxCDF was measured in FY82. Thus, the weighted averages of the individually
measured isomers were summed to estimate the total HxCDF concentration in FY87.
136
-------
Table 9-11, which gives the weighted average estimates and standard errors for each of
these compounds, shows large decreases in the average measured concentrations of
2,3,7,8-TCDF and OCDF from FY82 to FY87. The average measured concentration of OCDF
was 56.0 pg/g in FY82 and only 2.28 pg/g in FY87. In addition, there were significant advances
in the HRMS methodology for analyzing the FY87 composites. For example, as presented in
Table 9-4, the average LOD for OCDF was 19.0 pg/g in FY82 and 1.67 pg/g in FY87. The
standard errors of the estimated average concentrations are also considerably larger for the
FY82 data. These facts suggest the differences may be due to changes in the analytical
method.
There also are differences in the weighted averages of HxCDF and 1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF.
The averages are 47% and 35% higher in FY82 than in FY87 for the two analytes, respectively.
9.4.2 Comparison of FY82, FY87 NHATS and VA/EPA Study Results
The results of the VA/EPA study, as reported by Kang et al. (1990) and Bauer et al.
(1990), are presented in Table 9-12 with data from the 15 to 44 age group from the FY82 and
FY87 NHATS. No statistical comparisons are made, because the NHATS and VA/EPA studies
had different objectives and data collection strategies.
Table 9-12 shows the average concentrations of selected analytes from specimens
collected in three-year periods beginning in 1971 from the VA/EPA study. The combined
averages for all specimens collected between 1971 and 1982 are also presented. Since the
specimens were taken from male donors born between 1936 and 1954, the ages of the donors
were between 17 and 46 years. These averages are compared with the average concentrations
from NHATS composites containing specimens from donors in the 15-44 year age group.
These composites did contain specimens from female donors; however, there has not been any
statistical evidence linking concentrations of these analytes with the sex of the donor.
Therefore, comparisons of the average concentrations from the NHATS and VA/EPA studies is
possible. The standard errors of the average concentrations and the number of specimens or
composite samples used to calculate the averages are also presented in Table 9-12.
There are obvious differences between the NHATS and VA/EPA results. Except for
concentrations of 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD in FY82, the NHATS averages are considerably lower than
the corresponding averages from the VA/EPA study. For example, the average concentrations
of 2,3,7,8-TCDD from FY82 and FY87 NHATS are 6.87 and 4.33 pg/g, respectively, while the
average concentration in the VA/EPA specimens is 14.1 pg/g.
137
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Average concentrations, with standard errors for additional analytes, are provided in
Table 9-13. The VA/EPA results (Bauer et al. 1990) are compared with the average
concentrations for NHATS composite samples containing specimens from donors in the 15-44
year age group. As indicated, many of the compounds were detected in fewer than 50% of
the composites. In those cases, the reported average concentrations may be significantly
affected by the estimated LODs. For compounds detected in more than 50% of the
composites, the average concentrations from the NHATS studies are considerably lower than
those obtained in the VA/EPA study. The only exception is that the measured concentrations
of 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDD are much higher in the FY82 NHATS.
Two explanations for the differences in the levels found in these studies are possible.
First, the apparent decline in PCDD and PCDF concentrations reflects a decline in PCDD and
PCDF residues in the general environment over the same time frame. This is a logical
possibility resulting from regulations promulgated and enforced since 1970 and environmental
awareness that has focused attention on releases of toxic chemicals via industrial effluents and
handling of hazardous wastes.
The second possibility for the differences observed between the VA/EPA and the FY87
NHATS results may be attributed to storage stability. Since PCDDs and PCDFs are very
persistent, stability is affected by the integrity of the tissue rather than the chemicals. Some of
the specimens in the VA/EPA study had been stored since 1971 before being analyzed in 1986
(16 years later). The NHATS composite samples from FY82 and FY87 were analyzed within
two to three years of the specimen collections.
Although further evidence is required, the data in Table 9-12 suggest a correlation
between time in storage and measured concentrations. However, the effect on storage time is
completely confounded with the effect of collection year. Thus, it is not possible to determine
which factor is causing the observed effect on concentration. To address the issue of storage
time versus collection year, further studies will be necessary to either directly study the
storage effect or identify a surrogate measure of tissue stability. Storage stability can be
studied through development of quality control pools that can be stored with the NHATS
archives and pulled for analysis with each analysis program.
140
-------
Table 9-13. Arithmetic Averages (pg/g), Standard Errors, and Sample Sizes for Selected Analytes
Obtained from the VA/EPA, FY82 NHATS (15-44 Age Group), and FY87 NHATS (15-44 Age Group) Studies
Analyte
2,3,7,8-TCDF
1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF
2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,6,7,8-HxCDF
2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDF
1,2,3,7,8,9-HxCDD
1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF
1,2,3,4,7,8,9-HpCDF
OCDF
VA Study3 NHATS"
1971-82 FY82
2.1C
0.177d
197*
0.6
0.062
197
23.0 39.4
1.071 4.62
197 17
21.4
1.005
197
10.9
0.581
197
3.3
0.192
197
0.33
0.021
197
18.0
0.837
197
36.5 21.1
1.822 3.39
197 16
1.4
0.082
197
3.1
0.290
197
NHATSb
FY87
1.34
0.098
9
0.244*'
0.042
16
8.71
0.543
14
7.13
0.817
5
4.63
0.376
15
0.281*
0.001
2
0.370*
0.043
14
10.7
0.298
15
15.9
1.88
10
0.726*
0.048
15
2.89*
2.07
6
a Includes all study specimens; concentrations not detected (ND) were replaced with LOD/2.
b Statistics based on composites in 15-44 yr. age group; concentrations not detected (ND) were replaced with
LOD/2.
c Arithmetic average (pg/g).
d Standard error.
e Number of individual specimens or composites analyzed.
' * Indicates detection in fewer than 50% of the FY87 composites.
141
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10.0 BIBLIOGRAPHY
Andrews JS Jr, Garrett WA, Patterson GD Jr, Needham LL, Anderson JE, Roberts DW,
Bagby JR, Paletta FX Jr. 1989. 2378-TCDD levels in adipose tissue of persons with no
known exposure and in exposed persons. Chemosphere 18:499-506.
Andrews JS Jr., Garrett WA Jr., Patterson DGD Jr., Needham LL, Roberts DW, Bagby JR,
Anderson JE, Hoffman RE, Schramm W. 1989. 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin
levels in adipose tissue of persons with no known exposure and in exposed persons.
Chemosphere 18:499-506.
Bauer KM, Stanley JS, Remmers J, Breen JJ, Schwemberger J, Schultz B, Kang HK. 1991.
Pattern recognition analysis of VA/EPA PCDD and PCDF data. Chemosphere 23:971-980.
Beck H, Drob A, Kleenan WJ, Mathar W, 1990. PCDD and PCDF concentrations in different
organs from infants. Chemosphere 20:903-910.
Beck H, Eckart K, Mathar W, Wittkowski I. 1987. Levels of PCDDs and PCDFs in adipose
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151
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APPENDIX A
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