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3. METHODS
The generation of an emission inventory involves many steps to
achieve the desired result, which is to estimate the amount of
emissions for selected pollutants in a defined geographical area.
Ideally, nationwide emission estimates should result from a summation
of county, State, and regional data in which each component is reported
separately. The National Emissions Data System (NEDS) uses this
procedure. The methods used to prepare data for this publication are
as similar as possible to those used for NEDS data preparation.
Since NEDS uses a more detailed procedure involving calculation of
emissions for individual sources and summation of these individual
emission totals to produce national totals, there is a much greater
chance for errors or omissions to occur in the NEDS data. Because of
the basic similarity of techniques, discrepancies between national
totals reported herein and those given in NEDS reports are due largely
to incomplete data reporting and errors in the NEDS data. The quality
of NEDS data over time has improved so that the differences between
NEDS emission reports for 1977 and later years and national emission
totals determined by the procedure used for this publication are not
as great as in earlier NEDS reports. Moreover, historical NEDS data
are not revised to account for updated emission factors, errors or
omissions in the data. As a result annual NEDS publications do not
necessarily represent a consistent trend in estimated emissions.
Because it is impossible to test every pollutant source indivi-
dually, particularly area sources, an estimating procedure must be
used. In order to do this, however, one must either estimate the
emissions directly or estimate the magnitude of other variables that
can then be related to emissions. These indicators include fuel con-
sumption, vehicle miles, population, sales, tons of refuse burned, raw
materials processed, etc., which are then multiplied by appropriate
emission factors to obtain emission estimates.
The limitations and applicability of emission factors must be
understood. In general, emission factors are not precise indicators
of emissions from a single source; rather, they are quantitative
estimates of the average rate of pollutant released as a result of
some activity. They are most valid when applied to a large number of
sources and processes. If their limitations are recognized, emission
factors are extremely useful in determining emission levels. A
detailed discussion of emission factors and related information is
contained in Reference 2. The emission factor thus relates quantity
of pollutants emitted to indicators such as those noted above, and is
a practical approach for determining estimates of emissions from
various source categories.
A basic discussion of trends is meaningful only when there is a
common basis for evaluation. It was necessary, therefore, to quantify
emissions using the same criteria for each year. This meant using the
45
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same estimation techniques, using equal or equivalent data sources,
covering the same pollutant sources, and using compatible estimates
of pollutant control levels from year to year. Estimates for previous
years were updated using current emission factors and including the
most recent information available. The criteria used in calculating
emissions was the same for all years.
The methodology used in generation of emission estimates for
individual source categories follows.
3.1 Transportation
3.1.1 Motor Vehicles
Emission estimates from gasoline-and diesel-powered motor vehicles
were based upon vehicle-mile tabulations and emission factors. Eight
vehicle categories are considered; light duty gasoline (mostly passen-
ger cars), light duty diesel passenger cars, light duty gasoline
trucks (trucks less than 6000 pounds in weight), light duty gasoline
trucks 6000 to 8500 pounds in weight, light duty diesel trucks, heavy
duty gasoline trucks and buses, and heavy duty diesel trucks and
buses, and motorcycles. The emission factors used are based on the
latest available data from Reference 3. The MOBILES model, developed
by the EPA Office of Mobile Sources was used to calculate emission
factors for each year. The emission factors are weighted to consider
the approximate amount of motor vehicle travel in low altitude areas,
high altitude areas, and California to obtain overall national average
emission factors. For each area a representative average annual
temperature, together with national averages for motor vehicle model
year distributions and hot/cold start vehicle operation percentages
were used to calculate the emission factors. Average speed is taken
into account according to the published distribution of vehicle-miles
travelled (VMT) as published in Reference 4. The published VMT are
divided into three road categories corresponding to roads with assumed
average speeds of 55 miles per hour for interstates and other primary
highways, 45 miles per hour for other rural roads, and 19.6 miles per
hour for other urban streets. For 1940 and 1950, average speeds were
assumed to be 45, 35 and 19.6 miles per hour for these roadway
classifications.
Lead emission estimates from gasoline-powered-motor vehicles, were
based on highway gasoline consumption, lead content of gasoline, per-
cent unleaded gasoline, and emission factors. The gasoline consump-
tion is based on highway gasoline usage as published in Reference 4.
The lead content of gasoline was obtained from Reference 13 for 1970
and Reference 2 for 1975-85. The percent unleaded gasoline is obtain-
ed from Reference 6. The emission factor was also obtained from
Reference 2.
46
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3.1.2 Aircraft
Aircraft emissions are based on emission factors and aircraft acti-
vity statistics reported by the Federal Aviation Administration.5
Emissions are based on the number of landing-takeoff (LTO) cycles.
Any emissions in cruise mode, which is defined to be above 3000 feet
(1000 meters) are ignored. Average emission factors for each year,
which take into account the national mix of aircraft types for general
aviation, military, and commercial aircraft, are used to compute the
emissions.
3.1.3 Railroads
The Department of Energy reports consumption of diesel fuel and
residual fuel oil by rail roads.34 Average emission factors appli-
cable to diesel fuel consumption were used to calculate emissions.
The average sulfur content of each fuel was used to estimate SOX
emissions. Coal consumption by railroads was obtained from References
7 and 13.
3.1.4 Vessels
Vessel use of diesel fuel, residual oil, and coal is reported by
the Department of Energy.34,7 Gasoline use is based on national boat
and motor registrations, coupled with a use factor (gallons/motor/
year) from Reference 8 and marine gasoline sales as reported in
Reference 4. Emission factors from AP-422 are used to compute emis-
sions. Since AP-42 does not contain an emission factor for coal use
by vessels, an average emission factor for coal combustion in boilers
was used.
3.1.5 Nonhighway Use of Motor Fuels
Gasoline and diesel fuel are consumed by off-highway vehicles. The
fuel use is divided into seven categories; farm tractors, other farm
machinery, construction equipment, industrial machinery, small general
utility engines such as lawnmowers and snowthrowers, snowmobiles, and
motorcycles. Fuel use is estimated for each category from estimated
equipment population and an annual use factor of gallons per unit per
year°, together with reported off-highway diesel fuel deliveries
given in Reference 34 and off-highway gasoline sales reported in
Reference 4.
3.2 Fuel Combustion in Stationary Sources
3.2.1 Coal
Bituminous coal, lignite, and anthracite coal use are reported by
the Department of Energy.',31 Most coal is consumed by electric
utilities. Average emission factors and the sulfur content of each
type of coal were used to estimate emissions. Degree of particulate
47
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control was based on a report by Midwest Research Institute^ together
with data from NEDSlO. Sulfur content data for electric utilities
are available from the Department of Energyll. Sulfur contents for
other categories are based on coal shipments data reported in Refer-
ence 7 and average sulfur contents of coal shipped from each pro-
duction district as reported in Reference 13 or 24. For electric
utilities, S02 emissions are adjusted to account for flue gas desul-
furization controls, based on data reported in Reference 25.
3.2.2 Fuel Oil
Distillate oil, residual oil, and kerosene are consumed by station-
ary sources nationwide. Consumption by user category is reported by
the Department of Energy.34 Average emission factors and the sulfur
content of each fuel were used to estimate emissions.
3.2.3 Natural Gas
Natural gas consumption data are also reported by the Department of
Energy.12 Average emission factors from AP-422 were used to calculate
the emission estimates.
3.2.4 Other Fuels
Consumption of wood has been estimated by the Department of
Energy.27,35 Consumption of bagasse is based on data reported in
NEDSJ-0 Sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are reported in Refer-
ence. 6 Estimated consumption of coke and coke-oven gas are based on
Reference 11 and 26. Average emission factors from NEDS were used to
calculate emissions.
Lead emissions from the combustion of waste oil were based on
information obtained from Reference 32. The amount of waste oil
burned has been assumed to remain constant and the emissions have been
changed as a result of a decrease in the lead content of the waste oil.
3.3 Industrial Processes
In addition to fuel combustion, certain other industrial processes
generate and emit varying quantities of pollutants into the air. The
lack of published national data on production, type of equipment, and
controls, as well as an absence of emission factors, makes it impos-
sible to include estimates of emissions from all industrial process
sources.
Production data for industries that produce the great majority of
emissions were derived from literature data. Generally, the Minerals
Yearbook 13 published by the Bureau of Mines, and Current Industrial
Reports,!4 published by the Bureau of the Census, provide adequate
data for most industries. Average emission factors were applied to
48
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production data to obtain emissions. Control efficiencies applicable
to various processes were estimated on the basis of published reports^
and from NEDS data.10
For the purposes of this report, petroleum product storage and
marketing operations (gasoline, crude oil, and distillate fuel oil
storage and transfer, gasoline bulk terminals and bulk plants, retail
gasoline service stations) are included as industrial processes.
Also included as industrial processes are industrial surface coating
and degreasing operations, graphic arts (printing and publishing),
and dry cleaning operations. All of these processes involve the use
of organic solvents. Emissions from the consumption of organic
solvents are estimated based on data reported in Reference 15. It is
assumed that all solvents consumed are eventually released as air
pollution, except for industrial surface coating operations. Esti-
mates of the level of control for surface coating operations have
been derived from References 10 and 28. In addition, the methodology
given in Reference 15 has been updated to be consistent with similar
procedures used for estimating organic solvent emissions in the
National Emissions Data System (NEDS).29
3.3.1 Miscellaneous Industrial Processes for Lead
Lead emissions from miscellaneous industrial processes include the
major source of lead alkyl production as well as other minor sources
such as type metal production, can soldering, cable covering, and
other minor sources. The lead alkyl production is based on informa-
tion from Reference 33. The production information for the other
minor sources is from Reference 13.
3.4 Solid Waste Disposal
A study conducted in 1968 on solid waste collection and disposal
practices^ Was the basis for estimating emissions from solid waste
disposal. Results of this study indicate that the average collection
rate of solid waste is about 5.5 pounds per capita per day in the
United States. It has been stated that a conservative estimate of
the total generation rate is 10 pounds per capita per day. The
results of this survey were updated based on data reported in NEDS
and used to estimate, by disposal method, the quantities of solid
waste generated. Average emission factors were applied to these
totals to obtain estimates of total emissions from the disposal of
so-lid wastes.
3.5 Miscellaneous Sources
3.5.1 Forest Fires
The Forest Service of the Department of Agriculture publishes infor-
mation on the number of forest fires and the acreage burned.17 Esti-
mates of the amount of material burned per acre are made to estimate
49
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the total amount of material burned. Similiar estimates are made to
account for managed burning of forest areas. Average emission factors
were applied to the quantities of materials burned to calculate
emissions.
3.5.2 Agricultural Burning
A studylS was conducted by EPA to obtain from local agricultural
and pollution control agencies estimates of the number of acres and
estimated quantity of material burned per acre in agricultural burning
operations. These data have been updated and used to estimate agri-
cultural burning emissions, based on average emission factors.
3.5.3 Coal Refuse
Estimates of the number of burning coal-refuse piles existing in
the United States are made in reports by the Bureau of Mines. 19
Their publication presents a detailed discussion of the nature,
origin, and extent of this source of pollution. Rough estimates of
the quantity of emissions were obtained using this information by
applying average emission factors for coal combustion. It was assumed
that the number of burning refuse piles decreased to a negligible
amount by 1975.
3.5.4 Structural Fires
The United States Department of Commerce publishes, in their statis-
tical abstracts, information on the number and types of structures
damaged by fire.20 Emissions were estimated by applying average
emission factors for wood combustion to these totals.
3.5.5 Nonindustrial Organic Solvent Use
This category includes nonindustrial sales of surface coatings
(primarily for architectural coating) solvent evaporation from con-
sumer products (aerosols, space deodorants, polishes, toiletries,
etc.), use of volatile organic compounds as general cleaning solvents,
paint removers, and liquefaction of asphalt paving compounds, and
other undefined end uses. Total national organic solvent use is
estimated from chemical production reports of References 21 and 33,
together with estimates of the portion of total production for use as
solvent for each chemical.15,29 ^ is assumed that all solvent
production is equal to the amount necessary to make up for solvent
lost through evaporation.
50
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4. ANALYSIS OF TRENDS
National trends in air pollutant emissions are a function of a number
of factors. Air pollution control measures and economic conditions
have the strongest impact on total emissions. National emission trends
do not provide any insight into the distribution or concentration of
air pollution sources within the United States. Therefore, local
emission trends do not necessarily coincide with national emission
trends. Based on the national implementation of control measures for
some classes of sources, such as highway motor vehicles, it is reasonable
to infer that for most localities, the national trend in emissions
reasonably approximates local trends in emissions for the same class of
sources.
In addition to the fact that national emission trends do not measure
local changes in emission densities, national emission trends may not
be consistent with air quality trends because of the impact of
meteorological factors on air quality data. Also, the estimates for
PM, SOx, and NOx emissions include more substances than are routinely
measured by ambient air monitoring equipment. For example, high-volume
air samplers collect only suspended particulates approximately 0.3 to
100 micro-meters in diameter, but particulate emission inventories
include both suspended and settled particulates generated by man's
activities. Likewise, sulfur dioxide (S02) and nitrogen dioxide (N02)
ambient air monitors measure only those two compounds while oxides of
sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen (NOx) are included in the emission estimates.
In each case, the substance measured by the ambient air monitor is the
most prevalent constituent of its pollutant class or is acknowledged to
be its most representative indicator. In this report, emissions of
sulfur oxides are reported as the equivalent weight of S02, which is
the predominant sulfur oxide species. Some emissions of sulfur trioxide
($03) are also included, expressed at the equivalent weight of S02-
Similarly, nitrogen oxides include predominantly nitric oxide (NO) and
nitrogen dioxide (N02). Other nitrogen oxides are probably emitted in
small amounts. In this report all nitrogen oxide emissions are express-
ed as the equivalent weight of N02. Estimates of oxidant emissions are
not provided because most oxidant species are secondary pollutants
generated by photochemical reactions in the atmosphere. Emission
estimates of VOC, a major ingredient in oxidant-producing reactions,
were developed from current emission factors.2,3 Generally excluded
from VOC estimates were emissions of methane, ethane, methyl chloroform,
and other compounds which are considered to be of neglible photochemical
reactivity. Organic species were identified based on Reference 22. If
no data were available for a source category, the total nonmethane hydro-
carbon or the total hydrocarbon emission factor from Reference 2 was
used. Highway vehicle emissions were estimated as nonmethane VOC's.3
The following sections discuss the most important factors influencing
the emission trends for each pollutant.
51
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4.1 Participates
1940-1970
The estimated participate emissions for 1940, 1950 and 1960 are 15 to
30 percent higher than in 1970. Even though industrial production
levels and the quantities of fuels consumed were lower than the post-
1970 period, the general lack of air pollution controls before 1970
resulted in relatively large particulate emissions. Also, for the
years 1940 and 1950, particulate emissions from coal combustion by
railroads and from forest wildfires were significant.
A large portion of the particulate emissions from stationary source
fuel combustion, result from the combustion of coal. In 1940, coal was
consumed largely in the industrial and residential sectors. Residential
coal use has declined substantially since 1940, resulting in a corre-
sponding reduction in emissions. Industrial coal use has also declined,
but not to the same extent. The degree of control employed by industrial
coal consumers has increased, however, so that overall industrial coal
combustion emissions decreased by 1970 to only about 40 percent of the
estimated 1940 level. On the other hand, coal combustion by electric
utilities has increased greatly, from an estimated 51 million tons in
1940 to 321 million tons in 1970. This increased consumption resulted
in increased emissions from 1940 to 1950. Since then, particulate emis-
sions from electric utilities have decreased, despite continued in-
creases in coal consumption. Installation of improved control equip-
ment is responsible for this reduction.
Particulate emissions from industrial processes increased from 1940
to 1950, reflecting increased industrial production. From 1950 to 1970,
industrial output continued to grow, but installation of pollution
control equipment helped to offset the increase in industrial produc-
tion. As a result, from 1950 to 1960 industrial process emissions
stayed about the same, and decreased slightly from 1960 to 1970.
1970-1985
Since 1970, particulate emissions have decreased substantially as the
result of air pollution control efforts. The extent of the reduction is
most evident from the data in Table 29 which shows theoretical 1985
national emission estimates, assuming that pollutant control levels did
not change since 1970. Overall, particulate emissions would have
increased by about 19 percent from 1970 to 1985 with no change in the
degree of control from 1970. In comparison, as shown in Table 1,
particulate emissions decreased about 60 percent from 1970 to 1985.
Thus, 1985 actual particulate emissions were about a third of what
they might have been without additional control efforts since 1970.
A large portion of the particulate emissions from stationary source
fuel combustion result from the combustion of coal. In 1970, a larger
portion of coal was consumed in the industrial and residential sectors.
52
-------
TABLE 29
THEORETICAL 1985 NATIONAL EMISSION ESTIMATES
BASED ON 1970 LEVEL OF CONTROL
(Teragrams/Year)
Source Category
PM
S02
NOX
voc
CO
PB'
Transportation
Highway Vehicles
Non-Highway
Transportation Total
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion
Electric Utilities
Industrial
Residential/Commercial
Fuel Combustion Total
Industrial Processes (SIC)
Mining Operations (10,12,13,14)
Food and Agriculture (02,07,20)
Wood Products (24,26)
Chemicals (28)
Petroleum Refining (29)
Mineral Products (32)
Metals (33)
Miscellaneous
Industrial Processes Total
Solid Waste
Miscellaneous
Total
1985 Actual Emissions (Table 1)
Theoretical 1985 Emissions As a
Percentage of 1985 Actual Emissions
1
0
1
5
1
1
7
3
1
0
0
0
2
1
0
10
1
0
21
7
2
.5
.2
.7
. 1
. 3
.2
.6
.8
. 4
.8
.2
. 1
.7
.2
.0
. 2
.3
.8
.6
.3
97
0
0
0
23
2
0
26
0
0
0
0
1
0
2
0
5
0
0
32
20
1
.5
.4
.9
.0
.5
.6
. 1
.3
.0
.2
.7
. 0
.7
.6
.0
.5
. 1
.0
.6
.7
57
10
1
1 1
7
2
0
1 1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
24
20
1
.0
.8
.8
.8
.9
.6
.3
.0
.0
.0
.2
.2
.2
.0
.0
.6
.4
.2
. 3
.0
22
16
1
18
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
6
10
2
3
35
21
1
.9
.2
. 1
.0
. 1
.4
.5
. 0
.2
.0
.9
. 0
.0
.0
.9
. 0
. 1
. 1
.8
. 3
68
90
6
97
0
0
7
8
0
0
0
2
2
0
2
0
7
7
5
125
67
1
.4
.8
.2
.3
.6
. 1
. 0
.0
.0
.8
.7
.0
.0
.4
.0
. 9
.3
.3
.7
.5
86
188
4
193
0
9
0
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
0
17
2
0
223
21
10
.8
.5
.3
.6
.2
.0
.8
.2
.0
.0
. 4
.0
.5
. 9
. 3
. 3
.9
.0
. 3
.0
64
1970 Actual Emissions (Table 1)
Theoretical 1985 Emissions As A
Percentage of 1970 Actual Emissions
Lead emissions are expressed in gigagrams/year.
18.1 28. 1 18.1 27.2 98.7 203.8
119 116 134 131 127 110
53
-------
Residential coal use has declined substantially since 1970, resulting
in a corresponding reduction in emissions. Industrial coal use has
also declined, but not to the same extent. The degree of control
employed by industrial coal consumers has increased, however, so that
overall industrial coal combustion emissions have decreased by 1985 to
only about 9 percent of the estimated 1970 level. On the other hand,
coal combustion by electric utilities has increased greatly, from an
estimated 321 million tons in 1970 to 694 million tons in 1985. However,
particulate emissions from electric utilities have decreased, despite
continued increases in coal consumption. Installation of improved
control equipment is responsible for this reduction. New facilities
constructed in the 1970's were required to meet New Source Performance
Standards (NSPS) requirements to achieve a high degree of control.
From Tables 2 and 29, it can be seen that if the 1970 level of control
had remained in effect in 1985, electric utility emissions would have
more than doubled, from 2.3 teragrams to 5.1 teragrams. Estimated
actual 1985 emissions from electric utilities were 0.6 teragrams, a
decrease of 74 percent from 1970.
Particulate emissions from industrial processes have been reduced
substantially due to installation of improved control equipment mandated
by air pollution control programs. Since 1970, actual emissions from
industrial processes declined by 73 percent. If the 1970 control level
had remained unchanged to 1985, emissions would have increased by about
1 percent. Table 23 shows estimated emissions for specific processes.
These annual emissions estimates reflect changes in production levels
along with an increase in average control levels from 1970 to 1985.
Comments on Particulate Emission Estimates
Caveats that should be noted with respect to these particulate
emission estimates are first that the estimates represent total particu-
late emissions, without any distinction of particle sizes. Thus, both
large particles and small particles are included. Emissions of very
large particles are more likely to settle out of the atmosphere and not
be measured as total suspended particulate by air quality monitoring
equipment. Small and intermediate size particles are more likely to
remain airborne and are more efficiently captured by total suspended
particulate air monitoring equipment. Small particles are also capable
of being inhaled into the human respiratory system, possibly catrsing
adverse health effects. The particulate emission controls that have
been employed to date have been most effective in reducing emissions
of large and intermediate size particles. The trend in the emissions
of small particles is not clearly known. It is very doubtful whether
small particle emissions have been reduced to the extent that total
particulate emissions have been reduced, however. It should be noted
that some small particles may be formed in the atmosphere as the result
of various chemical and physical processes. Such particles are not
included in the estimated total particulate emissions. A second caveat
is that fugitive particulate (emissions from unconfined sources such
as storage piles, material loading, etc.) emissions are incompletely
54
-------
accounted for in the emission totals. Rough estimates of industrial
process fugitive emissions are included for some industries. Area
source fugitive dust emissions (unpaved roads, construction activities,
etc.) are not included at all. Similarly, natural sources of particu-
lates, such as wind erosion or dust, are not included. (An exception
is forest fires, some of which result from natural causes). In total,
these fugitive emissions may amount to a considerable portion of total
particulate emissions. The controls applied to these sources have so
far been minimal. Due to the lack of adequate emission factors and
emission inventory techniques for these sources, fugitive particulate
emissions have not been included in most emission inventories. As
additional data become available, it is expected that estimates of
fugitive particulate emissions will be included in future emission
inventories. It should be noted, however, that a major portion of
the fugitive particulate emissions are relatively large particles
that are not readily captured by particulate air quality monitors.
Similarly, these large particles do not effectively enter into the
human respiratory system.
4.2 Sulfur Oxides
1940-1970
From 1940 to 1970, major increases in sulfur oxide emissions occurred
as the result of increased combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and
oil. Industrial process emissions also increased, but to a lesser
extent. Sulfur oxide emissions from other source categories decreased,
primarily as the result of the obsolescence of coal-fired railroad
locomotives and a decrease in coal refuse burning.
1970-1985
Since 1970, total sulfur oxide emissions have declined about 26
percent as the result of use of fuels with lower average sulfur contents,
some scrubbing of sulfur oxides from flue gases, and controls on indus-
trial process sources. Significant emission reductions from industrial
processes have occurred, mostly from non-ferrous smelters and sulfuric
acid plants. By-product recovery of sulfuric acid at smelters has
increased since 1970. As a result, sulfur oxide emissions that previ-
ously would have been released to the atmosphere are recovered as
sulfuric acid. Since 1972, new sulfuric acid manufacturing plants have
been subject to New Source Performance Standards requirements. These
rules have contributed to decreased emissions, as new plants built to
meet new product demands or replace old facilities, must meet more
stringent emission limitations than old facilities.
As shown in the tables, since 1970 sulfur oxide emissions from electric
utilities account for more than half of the total emissions. Combustion
of sulfur-bearing fuels, chiefly coal and residual fuel oil, is respon-
sible. Figure 13 shows how S02 and NOX emissions from electric utility
coal combustion have changed from 1940-1985. Between 1970 and 1985,
55
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utility use of coal more than doubled. Emissions from utilities
have decreased, however, because fuels with lower sulfur content have
been used to the extent that they were available. Also, flue gas
desulfurization systems have been installed so that by the late 1970's
enough units were in service to prevent increases in electric utility
emissions. 1985 electric utility emissions would have been approximate-
ly 19 percent higher without the operation of flue gas desulfurization
controls. The theoretical 1985 national emission estimates given in
Table 29 for stationary fuel combustion sources are based on 1985 fuel
amounts but fuel sulfur contents that represent 1970 average levels for
fuel oil and an estimated average sulfur content of coal that would
have been consumed if there were no changes in air pollution regulations
since 1970. It is estimated that the national average sulfur content
of coal burned would have declined anyway even without new air pollution
regulations due to the greater use of coal from the Western U.S., which
generally has a lower sulfur content than coal from the Eastern States.
On this basis, electric utility emissions would have increased 45
percent. In fact, emissions decreased by 10 percent. Sulfur oxide
emissions from other fuel combustion sectors decreased, primarily due
to less coal burning by these industrial, commercial and residential
consumers.
Comments on Sulfur Oxide Emission Estimates
Emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides have been identified as
precursors of acidic precipitation and deposition. To support Federal
research activities on the subject, more detailed historical emissions
estimates of sulfur and nitrogen oxides have been developed. Interested
readers may wish to review Reference 30, which contains State level
estimates of sulfur and nitrogen oxide emissions from 1900 through
1980.
4.3 Nitrogen Oxides
1940-1970
Nitrogen oxide emissions result almost entirely from fuel combustion
by stationary sources and motor vehicles. From 1940 through 1970, NOx
emissions increased steadily as the result of increased fuel combustion.
1970-1985
Controls applied to sources of NOx emissions have had a limited effect
in reducing emissions through 1985. Table 29 shows that with the 1970
control level, national NOx emissions would have been about 22 percent
higher than actual 1985 emissions. The emissions from stationary fuel
combustion sources largely reflect the actual growth in fuel consump-
tion. For electric utilities, NSPS control requirements have held down
the growth in NOx emissions somewhat. Nevertheless, NOx emissions from
electric utilities increased 55 percent from 1970 to 1985. For mobile
57
-------
sources, NOx emissions were controlled as a result of the Federal Motor
Vehicle Control Program (FMVCP). Nitrogen oxide emissions from highway
vehicles would have increased 67 percent, had there been no change in
control level since 1970. The estimates of actual NOx emissions show
an 18 percent increase. Figure 14 shows how NOX emissions from major
highway vehicle categories have changed from 1970 to 1985.
4.4 Volatile Organic Compounds
1940-1970
From 1940 through 1970, VOC emissions increased about 50 percent.
Major increases in highway vehicle travel and industrial production
were chiefly responsible. Emissions from these source categories were
about two and a half times higher in 1970 than in 1940. Emissions from
residential fuel combustion and forest fires declined substantially,
however. In 1940, residential fuel combustion and forest fires account-
ed for 42 percent of total national VOC emissions. By 1970, their
contribution to total VOC emissions had been reduced to 6 percent.
1970-1985
Since 1970, emissions of VOC decreased primarily due to motor vehicle
controls and less burning of solid waste. Had controls not been
implemented, a substantial increase in emissions from highway vehicles
would have occurred. From 1970 to 1985, vehicle-miles of travel in the
U.S. increased by about 58 percent.4 A comparable increase in emissions
would have occurred had 1970 control levels remained unchanged. As a
result of the controls put in place, VOC emissions from highway vehicles
actually decreased 48 percent. Figure 15 shows how VOC emission from
major highway vehicle categories have changed from 1970-1985. VOC
emissions also decreased due to the substitution of water-based emulsi-
fied asphalts (used for road paving) for asphalts liquefied with petro-
leum distillates (cutback asphalts). This is reflected in the decreased
emissions reported for miscellaneous organic solvent use.
Through 1978 these decreases were offset by increases in industrial
process emissions. Since then, industrial process emissions have also
declined, so that overall total VOC emissions were reduced about 22
percent from 1970 to 1985. Industrial process emissions increased
due to higher production levels, particularly in industrial sectors
such as petroleum refining, organic chemical production, and industrial
uses of organic solvents. Control procedures employed were effective
in limiting the growth in emissions, however. In addition, source
production levels in 1981 through 1983 were relatively low due to poor
economic conditions. Through the mid-1970's, emissions from petroleum
product storage and marketing operations also increased as the result
of increased demand for petroleum products, particularly motor gasoline.
Since 1978, emissions from this source sector are estimated to have
decreased as the result of declining product demand and more effective
control measures.
58
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In 1970, VOC emissions from residential fuel combustion were insigni-
ficant. However, in the late 1970's emissions began to increase due to
the popularity of wood stoves and fireplaces for residential space
heating. In 1985, residential fuel combustion accounted for about 11
percent of total VOC emissions.
Comments on VOC Emission Estimates
Volatile organic compounds along with nitrogen oxides are participants
in atmospheric chemical and physical processes that result in the
formation of ozone and other photochemical oxidants. Emissions of VOC
that are most likely to have a role in such atmospheric processes are
included in the reported emissions estimates. Photochemically non-
reactive compounds such as methane are not included in the estimated
emissions of VOC. Biogenic sources of organic compounds such as trees
and other vegetation are not included either. Initial estimates are
that emissions of VOC from naturally-occurring sources exceed the amount
of anthropogenic emissions. The extent to which biogenic sources of VOC
contribute to oxidant formation, if at all, has not been clearly estab-
lished, however. Ambient concentrations of ozone are typically higher
during the summer months. As a result, analysis of seasonal, rather
than annual VOC emissions may be more appropriate to understand the
relationship between VOC emissions and high ozone concentrations in
the atmosphere. Sources such as residential space heating, which
occurs primarily during the winter would have little impact on summer
ozone levels.
4.5 Carbon Monoxide
1940-1970
From 1940 through 1970, the relative contribution by the various
source categories to total CO emissions changed considerably. In 1940,
highway vehicles contributed only about 27 percent of carbon monoxide
emissions. Residential fuel combustion (primarily of wood and coal),
forest fires and other burning (agricultural crop residues and coal
refuse) contributed about 50 percent of total CO emissions. From 1940
to 1970, highway vehicle emissions nearly tripled, while emissions from
residential fuel combustion and miscellaneous burning sources decresed
substantially. As a result, in 1970 highway vehicles accounted for 63
percent of total CO emissions. Industrial process CO emissions increas-
ed from 1940 to 1970 by about 36 percent. The largest increase
occurred in the petroleum refining sector, primarily as the result of
expansion of catalytic cracking capacity to meet increased demand for
gasoline and other middle distillates.
1970-1985
Since 1970, highway motor vehicles have been the largest contributing
source of CO emissions. Figure 16 shows how CO emissions from major
62
-------
highway vehicle categories have changed from 1970-1985. The imple-
mentation of the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program (FMVCP) has
been successful in reducing CO emissions since the early 1970's. From
1970 through 1978, motor vehicle miles of travel increased 38 percent,
but because of controls on new vehicles, total CO emissions from high-
way vehicles decreased 16 percent. From 1978 to 1980, VMT declined
by 1.7 percent. This lack of growth in vehicle travel together with
an increased degree of control because of stricter emission standards
for new vehicles and the gradual disappearance of older uncontrolled
vehicles from the vehicle fleet, produced an estimated 14 percent drop
in highway vehicle emissions in the two year period from 1978 to 1980.
Since 1980, VMT have grown each year. From 1980 to 1985, VMT increased
by 17 percent. However, due to the FMVCP controls, CO emissions from
highway vehicles actually decreased slightly during this period. Over-
all from 1970 to 1985, without the implementation of FMVCP, highway ve-
hicle emissions would have increased 44 percent. By comparison, actual
emissions are estimated to have decreased 35 percent.
CO emissions from other sources have also generally decreased. In
1970, emissions from burning of agricultural crop residues were greater
than in more recent years. Solid waste disposal emissions have also
decreased as the result of implementation of regulations limiting or
prohibiting burning of solid waste in many areas. Emissions of CO from
stationary source fuel combustion occur mainly from the residential
sector. These emissions were reduced somewhat through the mid-1970's as
residential consumers converted to natural gas, oil, or electric heating
equipment. Recent growth in the use of residential wood stoves has
reversed this trend, but increased CO emissions from residential sources
continue to be small compared to highway vehicle emissions. Neverthe-
less, in 1985 residential wood combustion accounted for about 10 percent
of national CO emissions, more than any source category except highway
vehicles. CO emissions from industrial processes have generally been
declining since 1970 as the result of the obsolescence of a few high-
polluting processes such as manufacture of carbon black by the channel
process and installation of controls on other processes.
4.6 Lead
1970-1985
The emissions of lead have decreased due to the implementation of the
Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program (FMVCP). The implementation of
FMVCP has resulted in the use of catalytic converters to reduce NOx,
VOC, and CO emissions and has required the use of unleaded gasoline for
vehicles with converters. From 1970 through 1975, the highway use of
gasoline increased 16 percent, but because of the decrease in lead con-
tent in leaded gasoline, lead emissions from highway vehicles decreased
24 percent. From 1975 to 1985, the percent unleaded gasoline sales
increased from 13 to 65 percent, and the lead emissions decreased 88
percent. Inparticular, a major reduction in lead emissions between
63
-------
1984 and 1985 occurred because of EPA rules issued which required
petroleum refiners to lower the lead content of leaded gasoline to
0.5 grams per gallon in 1985. Previously, the lead content of leaded
gasoline had been 1.1 grams per gallon or more. From 1970 through
1985, off highway consumption of gasoline decreased 41 percent while
lead emissions decreased 88 percent.
Lead emissions also decreased from other sources. The 95 percent
decrease in stationary source fuel combustion is a result of the decrease
in lead concentration in waste oil utilized in industrial boilers.
Lead emissions decreased 90 percent for industrial processes from 1970
through 1985. Part of this decrease reflects the changes that result
from installation of air pollution control equipment. As shown in
Tables 12 and 29, the change in emissions as a result of changes in
operating rates would be a 28 percent reduction. Lead emissions from
solid waste disposal have decreased 58 percent from 1970 through 1985
as a result of the decreased amount of solid waste disposed of by
incineration.
64
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5. REFERENCES
*1. National Emissions Report, National Emissions Data System (NEDS).
NADB, OAQPS, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-85-013. December 1985.
2. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Fourth Edition,
Volumes I and II. US Environmental Protection Agency, Research
Triangle Park, NC and Ann Arbor, MI. Publication No. AP-42.
3. User's Guide to MOBILES (Mobile Source Emissions Model), US Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution
Control, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Publication No. EPA-460/3-89-002.
June 1984.
*4. Highway Statistics. Federal Highway Administration, US Department
of Transportation, Washington, DC. 1985.
*5. FAA Air Traffic Activity. Federal Aviation Administration, US
Department of Transportation, Washington, DC. 1985.
*6. Petroleum Supply Annual 1985, Energy Information Administration,
US Department of Energy. Washington, DC. Publication No. DOE/EIA-
0340(85)/I. May 1986.
*7. Coal Distribution January-December, Energy Information Administration,
US Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No. DOE/EIA-
0125(85/4Q). April 1986.
8. Exhaust Emissions from Uncontrolled Vehicles and Related Equipment
Using Internal Combustion Engines. Southwest Research Institute,
San Antonio, TX. Prepared for US Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, NC. EPA Contract No. EHS 70-108. Oct 1973.
9. Particulate Pollutant Systems Study. Midwest Research Institute,
Kansas City, MO. Prepared for US Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, NC. National Air Pollution Control
Administration Contract No. CPA 22-69-104. May 1971.
10. Standard Computer Retrievals from the National Emissions Data
System (NEDS). Unpublished computer report available from NADB,
OAQPS, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park,
NC.
'These publications are issued periodically. The most recent publication
ivailable when this document was prepared is cited.
65
avai
-------
*11. Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Utility Plants-1985, Energy
Information Administration, US Department of Energy, Washington,
D.C. Publication No. DOE/EIA-0191(85). July 1986.
*12. Natural Gas Annual, Energy Information Administration, US Department
of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No. DOE/EIA-0131(84)/1.
December 1985.
*13. Minerals Yearbook. Bureau of Mines, US Department of the Interior,
Washington, DC. 1984.
*14. Current Industrial Reports. Bureau of the Census, US Department
of Commerce, Washington, DC.
15. End Uses of Solvents Containing Volatile Organic Compounds, The
Research Corporation of New England, Wethersfield, CT, EPA
Publication EPA-450/3-79-032, May 1979.
16. 1968 National Survey of Community Solid Waste Practices. Public
Health Service, US Department of Health, Education, and Welfare,
Cincinnati, OH. PHS Publication No. 1867. 1968.
*17. Wildfire Statistics. Forest Service, US Department of Agriculture,
Washington, DC. 1978.
18. Emissions Inventory from Forest Wildfires, Forest Managed Burns,
and Agricultural Burns. US Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711. Publication No. EPA-450/3-74-
062. November 1974.
19. Coal Refuse Fires, An Environmental Hazard. Bureau of Mines, US
Department of the Interior, Washington, DC. Information Circular
8515. 1971.
*20. Statistical Abstract of the United States. Bureau of the Census,
US Department of Commerce, Washington, DC. 1986 (106th ed.).
*21. Chemical and Engineering News, Annual Facts and Figures Issue,
American Chemical Society, Washington, DC. June 9, 1986.
22. Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Species Data Manual Second Edition,
US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.
Publication No. EPA-450/4-80-015. July 1980.
23. Standard Industrial Classification Manual 1972, Executive Office
of the President, Office of Management and Budget, Washington, DC.
*These publications are issued periodically. The most recent
publication available when this document was prepared is cited.
66
-------
*24. Sulfur Content in Coal Shipments 1978, Energy Information
Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Publication No. DOE/EIA-0263(78). June 1981.
*25. Standard Computer Retrievals from the Flue Gas Desulfurization
Information System (FGDIS). Unpublished Computer Report Available
from the Air & Energy Engineering Research Laboratory, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.
*26. Quarterly Coal Report, Energy Information Administration, U.S.
Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No. DOE/EIA-
0121(86/2Q). September 1986.
27. Estimates of U.S. Wood Energy Consumption from 1949 to 1981. U.S.
Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No. DOE/EIA-
0341. August 1982.
28. Organic Solvent Use in Web Coating Operations, Emission Standards
and Engineering Division, US Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/3-81-012.
September 1981.
29. AEROS Manual Series Volume IV: NADB Internal Operations Manual.
OAQPS Guidelines No. 1.2-041. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. January 1978.
30. Historic Emissions of Sulfur and Nitrogen Oxides in the United
States from 1900 to 1980. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, NC. April 1985. Publication No.
EPA-600/7-85-009.
31. Electric Power Annual, Energy Information Administration, U.S.
Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No. DOE/EIA-
0348(85). July 1986.
32. Telephone communication between Jacob Summers, OAQPS, and Michael
Petruska, Office of Solid Waste, US EPA, Washington, DC, November
9, 1984.
*33. Synthetic Organic Chemicals, United States Production Sales,
1984, United States International Trade Commission, Washington,
DC 20436.
*34. Petroleum Marketing Monthly, Energy Information Administration,
U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC.; Publication No.
DOE/EIA-0380(86/07). September 1986.
*These publications are issued periodically. The most recent publication
available when this document was prepared is cited.
67
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35. Estimates of U.S. Wood Energy Consumption 1980-1983. U.S.
Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No.
DOE/EIA-0341(83). November 1984.
68
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA-450/4-86-018
2.
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
5. REPORT DATE
January 1987
National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940-1985
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7. AUTHOR(S)
Monitoring and Data Analysis Division
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air and Radiation
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final - 1940-1985
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
This report presents estimates of trends in nationwide air pollutant emissions for
the six major pollutants: sulfur oxides, particulates, carbon monoxide, volatile
organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, and lead. Estimates are broken down according
to major types of air pollutant sources. A short analysis of emission trends is
given, along with a discussion of methods used to develop the data.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS C. COSATI Field/Group
trends, emissions, inventory, air
pollutants, nationwide, sulfur oxides,
carbon monoxide, particulates, volatile
organic compounds, nitrogen oxides,
controllable emissions, miscellaneous
sources, lead
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS {Tins Report)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
69
20. SECURITY CLASS (Tilts page)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (R«v. 4-77) PREVIOUS EDITION is OBSOLETE
69
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INSTRUCTIONS
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EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77) (R«ver»e)
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