United States
Environmental
Protection
Agency
Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
National Air Data Branch
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
January 1088
EPA-450/4-87-024
AIR
NATIONAL AIR POLLUTANT
EMISSION ESTIMATES
1940 - 1986
-------
EPA-450/4-87-024
NATIONAL AIR POLLUTANT
EMISSION ESTIMATES
1940 - 1986
Technical Support Division
National Air Data Branch
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
JANUARY 1988
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This report is published by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to report
information of general interest in the field of air pollution. Copies are
available free of charge to Federal employees, current contractors and
grantees, and nonprofit organizations - as supplies permit - from the Library
Services Office (MD-35), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research
Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711; or, for a fee, from the National Technical
Information Services, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
Publication No. EPA-450/4-87-024
11
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ABSTRACT
This report presents estimates of trends in nationwide air pollutant emissions
for the six major pollutants: particulates, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides,
volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide, and lead. Estimates are
presented for each year from 1940 through 1986. Emission estimates are
broken down according to major classifications of air pollution sources. A
short analysis of trends is given, along with a discussion of methods used to
develop the data.
111
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CONTENTS
Section Page
LIST OF FIGURES vii
LIST OF TABLES viii
1. SUMMARY 1
2. NATIONWIDE EMISSION TRENDS, 1940-1986 3
2.1 Particulates 3
2.2 Sulfur Oxides 3
2.3 Nitrogen Oxides 4
2.4 Volatile Organic Compounds 4
2.5 Carbon Monoxide. 4
2.6 Lead 5
3. METHODS 45
3.1 Transportation 46
3.1.1 Motor Vehicles 46
3.1.2 Aircraft 46
3.1.3 Railroads 46
3.1.4 Vessels 47
3.1.5 Non highway Use of Motor Fuels 47
3.2 Fuel Combustion in Stationary Sources 47
3.2.1 Coal 47
3.2.2 Fuel Oil 47
3.2.3 Natural Gas. 48
3.2.4 Other Fuels 48
3.3 Industrial Processes. 48
3.3.1 Miscellaneous Industrial Processes 49
3.4 Solid Waste Disposal 49
IV
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CONTENTS (continued)
Page
3.5 Miscellaneous Sources 49
3.5.1 Forest Fires 49
3.5.2 Agricultural Burning 49
3.5.3 Coal Refuse Burning 49
3.5.4 Structural Fires 50
3.5.5 Nonindustrial Organic Solvent Use 50
4. ANALYSIS OF TRENDS 51
4.1 Particulates 52
4.2 Sulfur Oxides 56
4.3 Nitrogen Oxides 58
4.4 Volatile Organic Compounds 58
4.5 Carbon Monoxide. 63
4.6 Lead . 64
5. REFERENCES 67
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA AND ABSTRACT 71
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Page
1. Trends in Paniculate Emissions, 1940-1986 6
2. Trends in Sulfur Oxide Emissions, 1940-1986 7
3. Trends in Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, 1940-1986 8
4. Trends in Volatile Organic Compound Emissions, 1940-1986. 9
5. Trends in Carbon Monoxide Emissions, 1940-1986 10
6. Trends in Lead Emissions, 1970-1986 11
7. Particulate Emissions by Source Category, 1940, 1970
and 1986 39
8. Sulfur Oxide Emissions by Source Category, 1940, 1970
and 1986. 40
9. Nitrogen Oxide Emissions by Source Category, 1940, 1970
and 1986. 41
10. Volatile Organic Compound Emissions by Source Category,
1940, 1970 and 1986 42
11. Carbon Monoxide Emissions by Source Category, 1940, 1970
and 1986 43
12. Lead Emissions by Source Category, 1970 and 1986 44
13. Theoretical 1986 National Emission Estimates of TSP, SOX,
NOX, VOC and CO with 1970 Level of Control 54
14. Sulfur and Nitrogen Oxide Emissions from Electric
Utility Coal Combustion 57
15. Nitrogen Oxide Emissions from Highway Vehicles 59
16. Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from High Vehicles 60
17. Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Highway Vehicles 61
18. Theoretical 1986 National Emission Estimates of Lead
with 1970 Level of Control. 65
VI
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LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1. Summary of National Emission Estimates 2
2. Summary of Estimated Particulate Emissions, 1940-1970 12
3. Summary of Estimated Sulfur Oxide Emissions, 1940-1970 13
4. Summary of Estimated Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, 1940-1970 14
5. Summary of Estimated Volatile Organic Compound
Emissions, 1940-1970 15
6. Summary of Estimated Carbon Monoxide Emissions, 1940-1970 16
7. National Estimates of Particulate Emissions, 1970-1986 17
8. National Estimates of Sulfur Oxide Emissions, 1970-1986 18
9. National Estimates of Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, 1970-1986 19
10. National Estimates of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions,
1970-1986 20
11. National Estimates of Carbon Monoxide Emissions, 1970-1986 21
12. National Estimates of Lead Emissions, 1970-1986 22
13. Particulate Emissions from Transportation 23
14. Sulfur Oxide Emissions from Transportation 24
15. Nitrogen Oxide Emissions from Transportation 25
16. Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Transportation 26
17. Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Transportation 27
18. Particulate Emissions from Fuel Combustion 28
19. Sulfur Oxide Emissions from Fuel Combustion 29
20. Nitrogen Oxide Emissions from Fuel Combustion 30
21. Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Fuel Combustion 31
22. Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Fuel Combustion 32
vn
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LIST OF TABLES (continued)
Table Page
23. Particulate Emissions from Industrial Processes 33
24. Sulfur Oxide Emissions from Industrial Processes 34
25. Nitrogen Oxide Emissions from Industrial Processes 35
26. Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Industrial
Processes 36
27. Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Industrial Processes 37
28. Lead Emissions from Industrial Processes 38
29. Theoretical 1986 National Emission Estimates with 1970
Level of Control 53
via
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NATIONAL AIR POLLUTANT EMISSION ESTIMATES
1940-1986
1. SUMMARY
The primary objectives of this publication are to provide current
estimates of nationwide emissions for six major pollutants: particulate matter
(PM), sulfur oxides (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), volatile organic compounds
(VOC), carbon monoxide (CO) and lead (Pb). Estimates are presented for 1940,
1950, 1960, and 1970 to give an historical perspective of national air pollutant
emissions, and for 1975 through 1986 as an indication of recent trends. These
data entirely replace those published earlier for 1940-1970 and 1975-1985 in the
EPA report National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940-1985
(EPA-450/4-86-018). Because of modifications in methodology and use of more
refined emission factors, data from this report should not be compared with
data in the earlier report.
Reporting of emissions on a nationwide basis, while useful as a
general indicator of pollutant levels, has definite limitations. National totals
or averages are not the best guide for estimating trends for particular
localities. Yet, it is important that some criteria be established for
measurement of national progress in the control of air pollutant emissions.
The emission estimates presented herein represent calculated estimates based
on standard emission inventory procedures. Since these data are estimates
only and do not represent the results of any program for the measurement of
actual emissions, their accuracy is somewhat limited. Similarly, it would not
necessarily be expected that these emission estimates would be in agreement
with emission estimates derived through a different emission inventory
procedure. The principal objective of compiling these data is to identify
probable overall changes in emissions on a national scale. It should be
recognized that these estimated national trends in emissions may not be
representative of local trends in emissions or air quality.
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2. NATIONWIDE EMISSION TRENDS, 1940-1986
Table 1 gives a summary of total national emission estimates for
1940-1986. Figures 1 through 6 show how total emissions and emissions from
major source categories have changed over time for each pollutant. Tables 2
through 12 present more detailed summaries for each year according to the
five major categories of sources: transportation, stationary source fuel
combustion, industrial processes, solid waste disposal, and miscellaneous
sources. More detailed breakdowns of emissions for 1970 through 1986 are
given in Tables 13 through 17 for transportation, Tables 18 through 22 for
stationary source fuel combustion, and in Tables 23 through 28 for industrial
processes.
The Standard Industrial Classifications (SIC) are shown for each process
category in the industrial process tables. These designations are not intended
to represent the complete emissions for all SIC categories and serve only to
identify and classify the industrial process shown.
In all tables, data are reported in metric units, either as teragrams (1012
grams) or gigagrams (109 grams) per year. One teragram equals approximately
1.1 x 106 short tons and one gigagram equals approximately 1.1 x 10s short
tons.
Figures 7 through 12 show how the relative contribution of the major
source categories to the total emissions of each pollutant have changed with
time. The major factors influencing these changes for each pollutant are
discussed briefly below. A more detailed discussion appears in Chapter 4.
2.1 Particulates (PM)
Particulate emissions result primarily from industrial processes and from
fuel combustion in stationary sources. For 1940 and 1950, emissions from
transportation (coal combustion by railroads) and miscellaneous sources (forest
fires) were also significant. Emissions from fuel combustion and industrial
processes did not change substantially from 1940 to 1970. Since 1970,
emissions from these categories have been substantially reduced as the result
of installation of air pollution control equipment. Particulate emissions from
transportation decreased substantially from 1940 to 1960 as the result of the
obsolescence of coal-burning railroad locomotives. From 1960 to 1986,
particulates from transportation increased due to increased travel by highway
motor vehicles. Miscellaneous source emissions decreased substantially from
1940 to 1970, primarily due to a major reduction in the acreage burned by
forest wildfires. Solid waste emissions increased from 1940 to 1970, but
declined substantially to 1986 as the result of air pollution regulations
prohibiting or limiting the burning of solid waste.
2.2 Sulfur Oxides (SO2)
Sulfur oxide emissions occur mostly from stationary source fuel
combustion and to some extent, from industrial processes. Sulfur oxide
emissions from combustion of coal by railroad locomotives were also significant
in 1940 and 1950. Emissions from solid waste disposal and miscellaneous
-------
sources have always been minor. Emissions from stationary source fuel
combustion increased greatly from 1940 to 1970. From 1970 to 1986, emissions
from fuel combustion have decreased slightly. During this time period, fuel
combustion, particularly of sulfur-bearing coal, continued to increase, but the
average sulfur contents of fuels decreased and a limited number of pollution
control systems (flue gas desulfurization) were installed. Emissions from
industrial processes increased from 1940 to 1970 reflecting increased industrial
production. From 1970 to 1986, industrial process emissions decreased
primarily due to control measures by primary non-ferrous smelters and sulfuric
acid plants.
2.3 Nitrogen Oxides (NOX)
Nitrogen oxide emissions are produced largely by stationary source fuel
combustion and transportation sources. Emissions have steadily increased over
the period from 1940 to 1970 as the result of increased fuel combustion. From
1970 to 1986, the size of the increase was reduced somewhat by controls
installed on highway motor vehicles and to a lesser extent by controls on
coal-fired electric utility boilers. From 1978-1983, NOX emissions decreased
slightly. Since then, NOX, emissions have increased, but remain below the
1978 peak. Nitrogen oxide emissions by industrial processes increased from
1940 to 1970, but have remained about constant since then.
2.4 Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)
The largest sources of VOC emissions are transportation sources and
industrial processes. Miscellaneous sources, primarily forest wildfires and
non-industrial consumption of organic solvents, also contribute significantly to
total VOC emissions. Emissions from stationary source fuel combustion and
solid waste disposal are relatively small. Transportation source emissions
increased greatly from 1940 to 1970, primarily as the result of increased travel
by highway motor vehicles. Since 1970, air pollution controls installed on motor
vehicles have been effective in reducing VOC emissions. Industrial process
emissions have increased through the late 70's, generally reflecting increased
levels of industrial production. Controls installed on industrial processes since
1970 have had a modest effect in preventing additional increases in VOC
emissions. Since 1979, VOC emissions from industrial processes have decreased.
This reflects both the installation of controls and a lower level of industrial
output during 1980-1983. Emissions from stationary source combustion declined
from 1940 through the mid-1970's and then increased to 1984, reflecting
primarily the trend in residential wood combustion.
2.5 Carbon Monoxide (CO)
Transportation sources are the largest emitters of carbon monoxide. Major
increases in emissions occurred from 1940 to 1970 as the result of increased
motor vehicle travel. From 1970 to 1986, transportation emissions decreased as
the result of highway vehicle emission controls, despite continued increases in
highway vehicle travel. Emissions from stationary source fuel combustion have
declined from 1940 through the mid-1970's and then increased slightly to 1986.
-------
Prior to 1970, residential coal and wood combustion contributed
significantly to CO emissions. However, as residential use of coal has been
replaced by other fuels, residential emissions have declined. Beginning in the
late 1970's, residential combustion of wood has increased, however, and as a
result CO emissions from residential fuel combustion increased. Carbon
monoxide emissions from industrial processes increased from 1940 to 1950 but
have declined somewhat since then. The decline is due largely to the
obsolescence of a few high-polluting industrial processes such as carbon black
manufacture by the channel process and limited installation of control
equipment on other processes. These factors have been significant enough to
offset growth in industrial production which would otherwise have caused a net
increase in emissions. Carbon monoxide emissions from solid waste disposal
increased from 1940 to 1970, but have subsequently declined as the result of
air pollution control efforts. Substantial emissions of carbon monoxide from
forest fires occurred in 1940. In later years, these emissions have been much
smaller due to improved fire prevention efforts and more effective suppression
of wildfires.
2.6 Lead (Pb)
Lead emissions result primarily from transportation sources and industrial
processes. Emissions for lead were not computed before 1970 because of
missing data, especially for transportation sources. In the early 1970's, the
transportation emissions varied based on the amount of gasoline consumed and
the average lead content. From 1975 to 1986, transportation emissions
decreased as a result of the conversion to unleaded gasoline. A major
reduction occurred between 1984 and 1986 due to EPA rulemaking which
required petroleum refiners to lower the lead content of leaded gasoline in
1985. Emissions from industrial processes have declined from 1970 to 1986 as
the result of installation of air pollution control equipment.
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TABLE 2
1940-1970 SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED
EMISSIONS OF PARTICULATES
(TERAGRAMS/YEAR)
Source Category
Misc. Total
Total of All Sources
1940
1950
1960
3.7
23.1
2.5
24.9
1.8
21.6
1970
Transportation
Highway Vehicles
Aircraft
Railroads
Vessels
Other-Of f Highway
Transportation Total
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion
Electric Utilities
Industrial
Commercial-Institutional
Residential
Fuel Combustion Total
Industrial Processes
Iron and Steel Mills
Primary Metal Smelting
Secondary Metals
Mineral Products
Chemicals
Petroleum Refining
wood Products
Food and Agriculture
Mining Operations
Industrial Processes Total
Solid Waste Disposal
Incineration
Open Burning
Solid Waste Total
Miscellaneous
Forest Fires
Other Burning
0.2
0.0
2.4
0.1
0.0
2.7
1.3
3.3
0.4
2.5
7.5
3.0
0.6
0.2
2.0
0.3
0.0
0.5
0.8
1.3
8.7
0.3
0.2
0.5
2.9
0.8
0.3
0.0
1.7
0.1
0.0
2.1
2.0
2.8
0.5
1.7
7.0
3.5
0.6
0.3
2.9
0.4
0.0
0.8
0.8
3.4
12.7
0.3
0.3
0.6
1.7
0.8
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.7
2.8
1.8
0.1
1.0
5.7
1.7
0.5
0.2
3.8
0.3
0.1
0.9
0.9
4.1
12.5
0.4
0.5
0.9
1.0
0.8
0.9
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
1.2
2.3
1.6
0.1
0.6
4.6
1.2
0.6
0.2
2.9
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.8
3.9
10.5
0.4
0.7
1.1
0.7
0.4
1.1
18.5
12
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TABLE 3
1940-1970 SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED
EMISSIONS OF SULFUR OXIDES
(TERAGRAMS/YEAR)
Source Category
1940
1950
1960
1970
Transportation
Highway Vehicles
Aircraft
Railroads
Vessels
Other-Off Highway
Transportation Total
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion
Electric Utilities
Industrial
Commercial-Institutional
Residential
Fuel Combustion Total
Industrial Processes
Primary Metal Smelting
Pulp Mills
Chemicals
Petroleum Refining
Iron and Steel
Secondary Metals
Mineral Products
Natural Gas Processing
Industrial Processes Total
Solid Waste Disposal
Incineration
Open Burning
Solid Waste Total
Miscellaneous
Forest Fires
Other Burning
0.0
0.0
2.7
0.2
0.0
2.9
2.2
5.5
1.0
2.3
11.0
2.5
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.0
0.3
0.0
3.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
2.0
0.2
0.0
2.3
4.1
5.2
1.7
1.9
12.9
2.8
0.0
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.0
0.5
0.0
4.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.4
8.4
3.5
1.0
1.1
14.0
3.0
0.1
0.4
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.5
0.1
5.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.6
15.8
4.1
0.9
0.5
21.3
3.7
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.0
0.6
0.1
6.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Misc. Total
Total of All Sources
0.5
17.6
0.5
19.8
0.5
19.7
0.1
28.3
13
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TABLE 4
1940-1970 SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED
EMISSIONS OF NITROGEN OXIDES
(TERAGRAMS/YEAR)
Source Category 1940 1950 i960 1970
Transportation
Highway Vehicles
Aircraft
Railroads
Vessels
Other-Off Highway
Transportation Total
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion
Electric Utilities
Industrial
Commercial -Institutional
Residential
Fuel Combustion Total
Industrial Processes
Petroleum Refining
Chemicals
Iron and Steel Mills
Pulp Mills
Mineral Products
Industrial Processes Total
Solid Waste Disposal
Incineration
Open Burning
Solid Waste Total
Miscellaneous
Forest Fires
Other Burning
1.3
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.2
2.2
0.6
2.3
0.2
0.3
3.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.2
2.1
0.0
0.9
0.1
0.4
3.5
1.2
2.9
0.3
0.3
4.7
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
3.6
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.5
4.9
2.3
3.7
0.3
0.4
6.7
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
6.0
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.8
7.6
4.4
3.9
0.3
0.4
9.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.7
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
Misc. Total 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.3
Total of All Sources 6.8 9.3 12.8 18.1
14
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TABLE 5
1940-1970 SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED
EMISSIONS OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
(TERAGRAMS/YEAR)
Source Category
1940
1950
1960
1970
Transportation
Highway Vehicles
Aircraft
Railroads
Vessels
Other-Of f Highway
Transportation Total
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion
Electric Utilities
Industrial
Commercial-Institutional
Residential
Fuel Combustion Total
Industrial Processes
Chemicals
Petroleum Refining
Iron and Steel Mills
Mineral Products
Food and Agriculture
Industrial Organic Solvent Use
Petroleum Product Production
and Marketing
Industrial Processes Total
Solid Waste Disposal
Incineration
Open Burning
Solid Waste Total
Miscellaneous
Forest Fires
Other Burning
Misc. Organic Solvent Use
Misc. Total
4.5
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.2
5.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
4.6
4.7
0.8
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.1
1.0
0.7
3.3
0.4
0.5
0.9
3.1
0.6
0.8
4.5
6.8
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.4
7.9
0.0
0.1
0.0
3.0
3.1
1.2
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.1
2.1
1.1
5.4
0.4
0.6
1.0
1.7
0.6
1.3
3.6
10.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
11.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.8
1.9
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.0
0.2
2.4
1.6
6.3
0.5
0.9
1.4
0.9
0.5
1.7
3.1
11.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.5
12.4
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.9
1.1
1.5
0.7
0.4
0.0
0.2
4.0
2.1
8.9
0.5
1.3
1.8
0.7
0.3
2.3
3.3
Total of All Sources
18.6
21.0
23.8
27.5
15
-------
TABLE 6
1940-1970 SUMMARY OF ESTIMATED
EMISSIONS OF CARBON MONOXIDE
(TERAGRAMS/YEAR)
Source Category 1940 1950 1960 1970
Transport at i on
Highway Vehicles
Aircraft
Railroads
Vessels
Other-Off Highway
Transportation Total
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion
Electric Utilities
Industrial
Commercial-Institutional
Residential
Fuel Combustion Total
Industrial Processes
Chemicals
Petroleum Refining
Iron and Steel Mills
Primary Metal Smelting
Secondary Metals
Pulp Mills
Industrial Processes Total
Solid Waste Disposal
Incineration
Open Burning
Solid Waste Total
Miscellaneous
Forest Fires
Other Burning
22.0
0.0
3.7
0.2
3.4
29.3
0.0
0.4
0.1
15.4
15.9
3.8
0.2
1.5
0.0
1.0
0.1
6.6
2.0
1.3
3.3
22.8
3.7
33.1
0.8
2.8
0.2
6.7
43.6
0.1
0.5
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10.7
11.4
5.3
2.4
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1.4
0.2
10.5
2.5
1.8
4.3
12.8
3.7
46.5
1.6
0.3
0.6
8.0
57.0
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3.6
2.8
1.3
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2.5
2.6
5.1
6.7
3.3
62.7
0.9
0.3
1.2
6.8
71.8
0.2
0.7
0.1
3.4
4.4
3.1
2.0
1.6
0.6
1.1
0.6
8.9
2.7
3.7
6.4
5.1
2.1
Misc. Total 26.5 16.5 10.0 7.2
Total of All Sources 81.6 86.3 88.4 98.7
16
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3. METHODS
The generation of an emission inventory involves many steps to achieve
the desired result, which is to estimate the amount of emissions for selected
pollutants in a defined geographical area. Ideally, nationwide emission estimates
should result from a summation of county, State, and regional data in which
each component is reported separately. The National Emissions Data System
(NEDS) uses this procedure. The methods used to prepare data for this
publication are as similar as possible to those used for NEDS data preparation.
Since NEDS uses a more detailed procedure involving calculation of emissions
for individual sources and summation of these individual emission totals to
produce national totals, there is a much greater chance for errors or omissions
to occur in the NEDS data. Because of the basic similarity of techniques,
discrepancies between national totals reported herein and those given in NEDS
reports are due largely to incomplete data reporting and errors in the NEDS
data. The quality of NEDS data over time has improved so that the
differences between NEDS emission reports for 1977 and later years and
national emission totals determined by the procedure used for this publication
are not as great as in earlier NEDS reports. Moreover, historical NEDS data
are not revised to account for updated emission factors, errors or omissions in
the data. As a result annual NEDS publications do not necessarily represent a
consistent trend in estimated emissions.
Because it is impossible to test every pollutant source individually,
particularly area sources, an estimating procedure must be used. In order to
do this, however, one must either estimate the emissions directly or estimate
the magnitude of other variables that can then be related to emissions. These
indicators include fuel consumption, vehicle miles, population, sales, tons of
refuse burned, raw materials processed, etc., which are then multiplied by
appropriate emission factors to obtain emission estimates.
The limitations and applicability of emission factors must be understood.
In general, emission factors are not precise indicators of emissions from a
single source; rather, they are quantitative estimates of the average rate of
pollutant released as a result of some activity. They are most valid when
applied to a large number of sources and processes. If their limitations are
recognized, emission factors are extremely useful in determining emission
levels. A detailed discussion of emission factors and related information is
contained in Reference 2. The emission factor thus relates quantity of
pollutants emitted to indicators such as those noted above, and is a practical
approach for determining estimates of emissions from various source categories.
A basic discussion of trends is meaningful only when there is a common
basis for evaluation. It was necessary, therefore, to quantify emissions using
the same criteria for each year. This meant using the same estimation
techniques, using equal or equivalent data sources, covering the same pollutant
sources, and using compatible estimates of pollutant control levels from year to
year. Estimates for previous years were updated using current emission factors
and including the most recent information available. The criteria used in
calculating emissions was the same for all years.
45
-------
The methodology used in generation of emission estimates for individual
source categories follows.
3.1 Transportation
3.1.1 Motor Vehicles
Emission estimates from gasoline-and diesel-powered motor vehicles were
based upon vehicle-mile tabulations and emission factors. Eight vehicle
categories are considered; light duty gasoline (mostly passenger cars), light
duty diesel passenger cars, light duty gasoline trucks (trucks less than 6000
pounds in weight), light duty gasoline trucks 6000 to 8500 pounds in weight,
light duty diesel trucks, heavy duty gasoline trucks and buses, and heavy duty
diesel trucks and buses, and motorcycles. The emission factors used are based
on the latest available data from Reference 3. The MOBILES model, developed
by the EPA Office of Mobile Sources was used to calculate emission factors
for each year. The emission factors are weighted to consider the approximate
amount of motor vehicle travel in low altitude areas, high altitude areas, and
California to obtain overall national average emission factors. For each area a
representative average annual temperature, together with national averages for
motor vehicle model year distributions and hot/cold start vehicle operation
percentages were used to calculate the emission factors. Average speed is
taken into account according to the published distribution of vehicle-miles
travelled (VMT) as published in Reference 4. The published VMT are divided
into three road categories corresponding to roads with assumed average speeds
of 55 miles per hour for interstates and other primary highways, 45 miles per
hour for other rural roads, and 19.6 miles per hour for other urban streets.
For 1940 and 1950, average speeds were assumed to be 45, 35 and 19.6 miles
per hour for these roadway classifications.
Lead emission estimates from gasoline-powered-motor vehicles, were based
on highway gasoline consumption, lead content of gasoline, per- cent unleaded
gasoline, and emission factors. The gasoline consumption is based on highway
gasoline usage as published in Reference 4. The lead content of gasoline was
obtained from Reference 13 for 1970 and Reference 2 for 1975-86. The
percent unleaded gasoline is obtained from Reference 6. The emission factor
was also obtained from Reference 2.
3.1.2 Aircraft
Aircraft emissions are based on emission factors and aircraft activity
statistics reported by the Federal Aviation Administration.5 Emissions are
based on the number of landing-takeoff (LTO) cycles. Any emissions in cruise
mode, which is defined to be above 3000 feet (1000 meters) are ignored.
Average emission factors for each year, which take into account the national
mix of aircraft types for general aviation, military, and commercial aircraft,
are used to compute the emissions.
3.1.3 Railroads
The Department of Energy reports consumption of diesel fuel and residual
fuel oil by railroads.34 Average emission factors applicable to diesel fuel
46
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consumption were used to calculate emissions. The average sulfur content of
each fuel was used to estimate SOX emissions. Coal consumption by railroads
was obtained from References 7 and 13.
3.1.4 Vessels
Vessel use of diesel fuel, residual oil, and coal is reported by the Department
of Energy.34'7 Gasoline use is based on national boat and motor registrations,
coupled with a use factor (gallons/motor/year) from Reference 8 and marine
gasoline sales as reported in Reference 4. Emission factors from AP-422 are
used to compute emissions. Since AP-42 does not contain an emission factor
for coal use by vessels, an average emission factor for coal combustion in
boilers was used.
3.1.5 Non-highwav Use of Motor Fuels
Gasoline and diesel fuel are consumed by off-highway vehicles. The fuel use is
divided into seven categories; farm tractors, other farm machinery,
construction equipment, industrial machinery, small general utility engines such
as lawn mowers and snowthrowers, snowmobiles, and motorcycles. Fuel use is
estimated for each category from estimated equipment population and an annual
use factor of gallons per unit per year 8, together with reported off-highway
diesel fuel deliveries given in Reference 34 and off-highway gasoline sales
reported in Reference 4.
3.2 Fuel Combustion in Stationary Sources
3.2.1 Coal
Bituminous coal, lignite, and anthracite coal use are reported by the
Department of Energy.7-31 Most coal is consumed by electric utilities.
Average emission factors and the sulfur content of each type of coal were
used to estimate emissions. The degree of paniculate control was based on a
report by Midwest Research Institute9 together with data from NEDS10. Sulfur
content data for electric utilities are available from the Department of
Energy 11. Sulfur contents for other categories are based on coal shipments
data reported in Reference 7 and average sulfur contents of coal shipped from
each production district as reported in Reference 13 or 24. For electric
utilities, SO2 emissions are adjusted to account for flue gas desulfurization
controls, based on data reported in Reference 25.
3.2.2 Fuel Oil
Distillate oil, residual oil, and kerosene are consumed by stationary sources
nationwide. Consumption by user category is reported by the Department of
Energy.34 Average emission factors and the sulfur content of each fuel were
used to estimate emissions.
47
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3.2.3 Natural Gas
Natural gas consumption data are also reported by the Department of Energy.12
Average emission factors from AP-422 were used to calculate the emission
estimates.
3.2.4 Other Fuels
Consumption of wood has been estimated by the Department of Energy.27'35
Consumption of bagasse is based on data reported in NEDS.10 Sales of liquefied
petroleum gas (LPG) are reported in Reference 6. Estimated consumption of
coke and coke-oven gas are based on Reference 11 and 26. Average emission
factors from NEDS were used to calculate emissions.
Lead emissions from the combustion of waste oil were based on
information obtained from Reference 32. The amount of waste oil burned has
been assumed to remain constant and the emissions have been changed as a
result of a decrease in the lead content of the waste oil.
3.3 Industrial Processes
In addition to fuel combustion, certain other industrial processes generate and
emit varying quantities of pollutants into the air. The lack of published
national data on production, type of equipment, and controls, as well as an
absence of emission factors, makes it impossible to include estimates of
emissions from all industrial process sources.
Production data for industries that produce the great majority of
emissions were derived from literature data. Generally, the Minerals
Yearbook,13 published by the Bureau of Mines, and Current Industrial
Reports,14 published by the Bureau of the Census, provide adequate data for
most industries. Average emission factors were applied to production data to
obtain emissions. Control efficiencies applicable to various processes were
estimated on the basis of published reports9 and from NEDS data.10
For the purposes of this report, petroleum product storage and marketing
operations (gasoline, crude oil, and distillate fuel oil storage and transfer,
gasoline bulk terminals and bulk plants, retail gasoline service stations) are
included as industrial processes. Also included as industrial processes are
industrial surface coating and degreasing operations, graphic arts (printing and
publishing), and dry cleaning operations. All of these processes involve the
use of organic solvents. Emissions from the consumption of organic solvents
are estimated based on data reported in Reference 15. It is assumed that all
solvents consumed are eventually released as air pollution, except for industrial
surface coating operations. Estimates of the level of control for surface
coating operations have been derived from References 10 and 28. In addition,
the methodology given in Reference 15 has been updated to be consistent with
similar procedures used for estimating organic solvent emissions in the National
Emissions Data System (NEDS).29
48
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3.3.1 Miscellaneous Industrial Processes for Lead
Lead emissions from miscellaneous industrial processes include the major
source of lead alkyl production as well as other minor sources such as type
metal production, can soldering, cable covering, and other minor sources. The
lead alkyl production is based on information from Reference 33. The
production information for the other minor sources is from Reference 13.
3.4 Solid Waste Disposal
A study conducted in 1968 on solid waste collection and disposal
practices16 was the basis for estimating emissions from solid waste disposal.
Results of this study indicate that the average collection rate of solid waste is
about 5.5 pounds per capita per day in the United States. It has been stated
that a conservative estimate of the total generation rate is 10 pounds per
capita per day. The results of this survey were updated based on data
reported in NEDS and used to estimate, by disposal method, the quantities of
solid waste generated. Average emission factors were applied to these totals
to obtain estimates of total emissions from the disposal of solid wastes.
3.5 Miscellaneous Sources
3.5.1 Forest Fires
The Forest Service of the Department of Agriculture publishes information
on the number of forest fires and the acreage burned.17 Estimates of the
amount of material burned per acre are made to estimate the total amount of
material burned. Similar estimates are made to account for managed burning
of forest areas. Average emission factors were applied to the quantities of
materials burned to calculate emissions.
3.5.2 Agricultural Burning
A study18 was conducted by EPA to obtain from local agricultural and
pollution control agencies estimates of the number of acres and estimated
quantity of material burned per acre in agricultural burning operations. These
data have been updated and used to estimate agricultural burning emissions,
based on average emission factors.
3.5.3 Coal Refuse
Estimates of the number of burning coal-refuse piles existing in the
United States are made in reports by the Bureau of Mines.19 Their publication
presents a detailed discussion of the nature, origin, and extent of this source
of pollution. Rough estimates of the quantity of emissions were obtained using
this information by applying average emission factors for coal combustion. It
was assumed that the number of burning refuse piles decreased to a negligible
amount by 1975.
49
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3.5.4 Structural Fires
The United States Department of Commerce publishes, in their statistical
abstracts, information on the number and types of structures damaged by
fire.20 Emissions were estimated by applying average emission factors for
wood combustion to these totals.
3.5.5 Non-industrial Organic Solvent Use
This category includes nonindustrial sales of surface coatings (primarily
for architectural coating) solvent evaporation from consumer products
(aerosols, space deodorants, polishes, toiletries, etc.), use of volatile organic
compounds as general cleaning solvents, paint removers, and liquefaction of
asphalt paving compounds, and other undefined end uses. Total national
organic solvent use is estimated from chemical production reports of
References 21 and 33, together with estimates of the portion of total
production for use as solvent for each chemical.15'29 It is assumed thai: all
solvent production is equal to the amount necessary to make up for solvent
lost through evaporation.
50
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4. ANALYSIS OF TRENDS
National trends in air pollutant emissions are a function of a number of
factors. Air pollution control measures and economic conditions have the
strongest impact on total emissions. National emission trends do not provide
any insight into the distribution or concentration of air pollution sources
within the United States. Therefore, local emission trends do not necessarily
coincide with national emission trends. Based on the national implementation
of control measures for some classes of sources, such as highway motor
vehicles, it is reasonable to infer that for most localities, the national trend in
emissions reasonably approximates local trends in emissions for the same class
of sources.
In addition to the fact that national emission trends do not measure local
changes in emission densities, national emission trends may not be consistent
with air quality trends because of the impact of meteorological factors on air
quality data. Also, the estimates for PM, SOX, and NOX emissions include
more substances than are routinely measured by ambient air monitoring
equipment. For example, high-volume air samplers collect only suspended
particulates approximately 0.3 to 100 micro-meters in diameter, but particulate
emission inventories include both suspended and settled particulates generated
by man's activities. Likewise, sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)
ambient air monitors measure only those two compounds while oxides of sulfur
(SOX) and nitrogen (NOX) are included in the emission estimates. In each case,
the substance measured by the ambient air monitor is the most prevalent
constituent of its pollutant class or is acknowledged to be its most
representative indicator. In this report, emissions of sulfur oxides are
reported as the equivalent weight of SO2, which is the predominant sulfur
oxide species. Some emissions of sulfur trioxide (SO3) are also included,
expressed at the equivalent weight of SO2. Similarly, nitrogen oxides include
predominantly nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Other nitrogen
oxides are probably emitted in small amounts. In this report all nitrogen oxide
emissions are express- ed as the equivalent weight of NO2. Estimates of
oxidant emissions are not provided because most oxidant species are secondary
pollutants generated by photochemical reactions in the atmosphere. Emission
estimates of VOC, a major ingredient in oxidant-producing reactions, were
developed from current emission factors.2-3 Generally excluded from VOC
estimates were emissions of methane, ethane, methyl chloroform, and other
compounds which are considered to be of negligible photochemical reactivity.
Organic species were identified based on Reference 22. If no data were
available for a source category, the total nonmethane hydro- carbon or the
total hydrocarbon emission factor from Reference 2 was used. Highway vehicle
emissions were estimated as nonmethane VOC's.3
The following sections discuss the most important factors influencing the
emission trends for each pollutant.
51
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4.1 Particulates
1940-1970
The estimated particulate emissions for 1940, 1950 and 1960 are 10 to 30
percent higher than in 1970. Even though industrial production levels and the
quantities of fuels consumed were lower than the post-1970 period, the general
lack of air pollution controls before 1970 resulted in relatively large
particulate emissions. Also, for the years 1940 and 1950, particulate emissions
from coal combustion by railroads and from forest wildfires were significant.
A large portion of the particulate emissions from stationary source fuel
combustion, result from the combustion of coal. In 1940, coal was consumed
largely in the industrial and residential sectors. Residential coal use has
declined substantially since 1940, resulting in a corresponding reduction in
emissions. Industrial coal use has also declined, but not to the same extent.
The degree of control employed by industrial coal consumers has increased,
however, so that overall industrial coal combustion emissions decreased by 1970
to only about 40 percent of the estimated 1940 level. On the other hand, coal
combustion by electric utilities has increased greatly, from an estimated 51
million tons in 1940 to 321 million tons in 1970. This increased consumption
resulted in increased emissions from 1940 to 1950. Since then, particulate
emissions from electric utilities have decreased, despite continued increases in
coal consumption. Installation of improved control equipment is responsible for
this reduction.
Particulate emissions from industrial processes increased from 1940 to
1950, reflecting increased industrial production. From 1950 to 1970, industrial
output continued to grow, but installation of pollution control equipment
helped to offset the increase in industrial production. As a result, from 1950
to 1960 industrial process emissions stayed about the same, and decreased
slightly from 1960 to 1970.
1970-1986
Since 1970, particulate emissions have decreased substantially as the
result of air pollution control efforts. The extent of the reduction is most
evident from the data in Table 29 which shows theoretical 1985 national
emission estimates, assuming that pollutant control levels did not change since
1970. Figure 13 illustrates this difference. Overall, particulate emissions
would have increased by about 13 percent from 1970 to 1986 with no change in
the degree of control from 1970. In comparison, as shown in Table 1,
particulate emissions decreased about 64 percent from 1970 to 1986. Thus,
1986 actual particulate emissions were about a third of what they might have
been without additional control efforts since 1970.
A large portion of the particulate emissions from stationary source fuel
combustion result from the combustion of coal. In 1970, a larger portion of
coal was consumed in the industrial and residential sectors. Residential coal
use has declined substantially since 1970, resulting in a corresponding reduction
in emissions. Industrial coal use has also declined, but not to the same extent.
The degree of control employed by industrial coal consumers has increased,
52
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TABLE 29
THEORETICAL 1986 NATIONAL EMISSION ESTIMATES
BASED ON 1970 LEVEL OF CONTROL
(Teragrams/Year)
Source Category
PM
S02
NOX
VOC
CO
PB
Transportation
Highway Vehicles
Non-Highway
Transportation Total
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion
Electric Utilities
Industrial
Residential/Commercial
Fuel Combustion Total
Industrial Processes (SIC)
Mining Operations (10, 12, 13, 14)
Food and Agriculture (02,07,20)
Wood Products (24,26)
Chemicals (28)
Petroleum Refining (29)
Mineral Products (32)
Metals (33)
Miscellaneous
Industrial Processes Total
Solid Waste
Miscellaneous
Total
1986 Actual Emissions (Table 1)
Theoretical 1986 Emissions As a
Percentage of 1986 Actual Emissions
1970 Actual Emissions (Table 1)
Theoretical 1986 Emissions As A
1.5
0.3
1.8
4.8
1.4
1.1
7.3
3.8
1.4
0.8
0.2
0.1
2.9
1.0
0.0
10.2
1.2
0.8
21.3
6.8
315.3
18.5
114.8
0.5
0.4
0.9
22.1
2.5
0.7
25.3
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.7
1.2
0.8
2.5
0.0
5.7
0.1
0.0
32.0
21.2
150.8
28.3
113.0
10.5
1.9
12.4
7.6
2.8
0.6
11.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.2
24.6
19.3
127.7
18.1
135.5
17.5
1.2
18.7
0.0
0.1
2.2
2.3
0.0
0.2
0.0
2.1
0.9
0.0
0.1
6.2
9.5
2.1
3.1
35.7
19.5
182.6
27.5
129.8
92.6
7.3
99.9
0.3
0.6
6.3
7.2
0.0
0.0
0.8
2.5
2.3
0.0
2.2
0.0
7.8
7.5
5.0
127.4
60.9
209.1
98.7
129.1
194.6
4.9
199.5
0.6
9.2
0.0
9.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.5
13.5
0.1
14.4
2.8
0.0
226.5
8.6
2624.6
203.8
111.2
Percentage of 1970 Actual Emissions
k
Lead Emissions are expressed in gigagrams/year.
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however, so that overall industrial coal combustion emissions have decreased by
1986 to only about 13 percent of the estimated 1970 level. On the other hand,
coal combustion by electric utilities has increased greatly, from an estimated
321 million tons in 1970 to 685 million tons in 1986. However, particulate
emissions from electric utilities have decreased, despite continued increases in
coal consumption. Installation of improved control equipment is responsible for
this reduction. New facilities constructed in the 1970's were required to meet
New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) requirements to achieve a high
degree of control. From Tables 2 and 29, it can be seen that if the 1970 level
of control had remained in effect in 1986, electric utility emissions would have
more than doubled, from 2.3 teragrams to 4.8 teragrams. Estimated actual 1986
emissions from electric utilities were 0.4 teragrams, a decrease of 83 percent
from 1970.
Particulate emissions from industrial processes have been reduced
substantially due to installation of improved control equipment mandated by air
pollution control programs. Since 1970, actual emissions from industrial
processes declined by 83 percent. If the 1970 control level had remained
unchanged to 1986, emissions would have increased by about 3 percent. Table
23 shows estimated emissions for specific processes. These annual emissions
estimates reflect changes in production levels along with an increase in
average control levels from 1970 to 1986.
Comments on Particulate Emission Estimates
Caveats that should be noted with respect to these particulate emission
estimates are first that the estimates represent total particulate emissions,
without any distinction of particle sizes. Thus, both large particles and small
particles are included. Emissions of very large particles are more likely to
settle out of the atmosphere and not be measured as total suspended
particulate by air quality monitoring equipment. Small and intermediate size
particles are more likely to remain airborne and are more efficiently captured
by total suspended particulate air monitoring equipment. Small particles are
also capable of being inhaled into the human respiratory system, possibly
causing adverse health effects. The particulate emission controls that have
been employed to date have been most effective in reducing emissions of large
and intermediate size particles. The trend in the emissions of small particles
is not clearly known. It is very doubtful whether small particle emissions have
been reduced to the extent that total particulate emissions have been reduced,
however. It should be noted that some small particles may be formed in the
atmosphere as the result of various chemical and physical processes. Such
particles are not included in the estimated total particulate emissions. A
second caveat is that fugitive particulate (emissions from unconfined sources
such as storage piles, material loading, etc.) emissions are incompletely
accounted for in the emission totals. Rough estimates of industrial process
fugitive emissions are included for some industries. Area source fugitive dust
emissions (unpaved roads, construction activities, etc.) are not included at all.
Similarly, natural sources of particulates, such as wind erosion or dust, are not
included. (An exception is forest fires, some of which result from natural
causes). In total, these fugitive emissions may amount to a considerable
portion of total particulate emissions. The controls applied to these sources
have so far been minimal. Due to the lack of adequate emission factors and
55
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emission inventory techniques for these sources, fugitive particulate emissions
have not been included in most emission inventories. As additional data
become available, it is expected that estimates of fugitive particulate emissions
will be included in future emission inventories. It should be noted, however,
that a major portion of the fugitive particulate emissions are relatively large
particles that are not readily captured by particulate air quality monitors.
Similarly, these large particles do not effectively enter into the human
respiratory system.
4.2 Sulfur Oxides
1940-1970
From 1940 to 1970, major increases in sulfur oxide emissions occurred as
the result of increased combustion of fossil fuels such as coal and oil.
Industrial process emissions also increased, but to a lesser extent. Sulfur
oxide emissions from other source categories decreased, primarily as the result
of the obsolescence of coal-fired railroad locomotives and a decrease in coal
refuse burning.
1970-1986
Since 1970, total sulfur oxide emissions have declined about 25 percent as
the result of use of fuels with lower average sulfur contents, some scrubbing
of sulfur oxides from flue gases, and controls on industrial process sources
(Table 29, Figure 13). Significant emission reductions from industrial processes
have occurred, mostly from non-ferrous smelters and sulfuric acid plants.
By-product recovery of sulfuric acid at smelters has increased since 1970. As
a result, sulfur oxide emissions that previously would have been released to the
atmosphere are recovered as sulfuric acid. Since 1972, new sulfuric acid
manufacturing plants have been subject to New Source Performance Standards
requirements. These rules have contributed to decreased emissions, as new
plants built to meet new product demands or replace old facilities, must meet
more stringent emission limitations than old facilities. As shown in the
tables, since 1970 sulfur oxide emissions from electric utilities account for
more than half of the total emissions. Combustion of sulfur-bearing fuels,
chiefly coal and residual fuel oil, is responsible. Figure 14 shows how SO2
and NOX emissions from electric utility coal combustion have changed from
1940-1986. Between 1970 and 1986, utility use of coal more than doubled.
Emissions from utilities have decreased, however, because fuels with lower
sulfur content have been used to the extent that they were available. Also,
flue gas desulfurization systems have been installed so that by the late 1970's
enough units were in service to prevent increases in electric utility emissions.
1986 electric utility emissions would have been approximately 19 percent higher
without the operation of flue gas desulfurization controls. The theoretical
1986 national emission estimates given in Table 29 for stationary fuel
combustion sources are based on 1986 fuel amounts but fuel sulfur contents
that represent 1970 average levels for fuel oil and an estimated average sulfur
content of coal that would have been consumed if there were no changes in
air pollution regulations since 1970. It is estimated that the national average
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sulfur content of coal burned would have declined anyway even without new
air pollution regulations due to the greater use of coal from the Western U.S.,
which generally has a lower sulfur content than coal from the Eastern States.
On this basis, electric utility emissions would have increased 55 percent. In
fact, emissions decreased by 10 percent. Sulfur oxide emissions from other
fuel combustion sectors decreased, primarily due to less coal burning by these
industrial, commercial and residential consumers.
Comments on Sulfur Oxide Emission Estimates
Emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides have been identified as precursors
of acidic precipitation and deposition. To support Federal research activities
on the subject, more detailed historical emissions estimates of sulfur and
nitrogen oxides have been developed. Interested readers may wish to review
Reference 30, which contains State level estimates of sulfur and nitrogen oxide
emissions from 1900 through 1980.
4.3 Nitrogen Oxides
1940-1970
Nitrogen oxide emissions result almost entirely from fuel combustion by
stationary sources and motor vehicles. From 1940 through 1970, NOX emissions
increased steadily as the result of increased fuel combustion.
1970-1986
Controls applied to sources of NOX emissions have had a limited effect in
reducing emissions through 1986. Table 29 (Figure 13) shows that with the
1970 control level, national NOX emissions would have been about 28 percent
higher than actual 1986 emissions. The emissions from stationary fuel
combustion sources largely reflect the actual growth in fuel consumption. For
electric utilities, NSPS control requirements have held down the growth in NOX
emissions somewhat. Nevertheless, NOX emissions from electric utilities
increased 50 percent from 1970 to 1986. For mobile sources, NOX emissions
were controlled as a result of the Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program
(FMVCP). Nitrogen oxide emissions from highway vehicles would have
increased 59 percent, had there been no change in control level since 1970.
The estimates of actual NOX emissions show a 10 percent increase. Figure 15
shows how NOX emissions from major highway vehicle categories have changed
from 1970 to 1986.
4.4 Volatile Organic Compounds
1940-1970
From 1940 through 1970, VOC emissions increased about 50 percent. Major
increases in highway vehicle travel and industrial production were chiefly
responsible. Emissions from these source categories were about two and a half
times higher in 1970 than in 1940. Emissions from residential fuel combustion
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and forest fires declined substantially, however. In 1940, residential fuel
combustion and forest fires accounted for 42 percent of total national VOC
emissions. By 1970, their contribution to total VOC emissions had been
reduced to 6 percent.
1970-1986
Since 1970, emissions of VOC decreased primarily due to motor vehicle controls
and less burning of solid waste. Had controls not been implemented, a
substantial increase in emissions from highway vehicles would have occurred.
From 1970 to 1986, vehicle-miles of travel in the U.S. increased by about 64
percent.4 A 58 percent increase in emissions would have occurred had 1970
control levels remained unchanged. As a result of the controls put in place,
VOC emissions from highway vehicles actually decreased 52 percent (Table 29,
Figure 13). Figure 16 shows how VOC emission from major highway vehicle
categories have changed from 1970-1986. VOC emissions also decreased due to
the substitution of water-based emulsified asphalts (used for road paving) for
asphalts liquefied with petroleum distillates (cutback asphalts). This is re-
flected in the decreased emissions reported for miscellaneous organic solvent
use.
Through 1978 these decreases were offset by increases in industrial
process emissions. Since then, industrial process emissions have also declined,
so that overall total VOC emissions were reduced about 11 percent from 1970
to 1986. Industrial process emissions increased due to higher production levels,
particularly in industrial sectors such as petroleum refining, organic chemical
production, and industrial uses of organic solvents. Control procedures
employed were effective in limiting the growth in emissions, however. In
addition, source production levels in 1981 through 1983 were relatively low due
to poor economic conditions. Through the mid-1970's, emissions from
petroleum product storage and marketing operations also increased as the
result of increased demand for petroleum products, particularly motor gasoline.
Since 1978, emissions from this source sector are estimated to have decreased
as the result of declining product demand and more effective control measures.
In 1970, VOC emissions from residential fuel combustion were
insignificant. However, in the late 1970's emissions began to increase due to
the popularity of wood stoves and fireplaces for residential space heating. In
1986, residential fuel combustion accounted for about 11 percent of total VOC
emissions.
Comments on VOC Emission Estimates
Volatile organic compounds along with nitrogen oxides are participants in
atmospheric chemical and physical processes that result in the formation of
ozone and other photochemical oxidants. Emissions of VOC that are most
likely to have a role in such atmospheric processes are included in the
reported emissions estimates. Photochemically non-reactive compounds such as
methane are not included in the estimated emissions of VOC. Biogenic sources
of organic compounds such as trees and other vegetation are not included
either. Initial estimates are that emissions of VOC from naturally-occurring
sources exceed the amount of anthropogenic emissions. The extent to which
62
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biogenic sources of VOC contribute to oxidant formation, if at all, has not
been clearly established, however. Ambient concentrations of ozone are
typically higher during the summer months. As a result, analysis of seasonal,
rather than annual VOC emissions may be more appropriate to understand the
relationship between VOC emissions and high ozone concentrations in the
atmosphere. Sources such as residential space heating, which occurs primarily
during the winter would have little impact on summer ozone levels.
4.5 Carbon Monoxide
1940-1970
From 1940 through 1970, the relative contribution by the various source
categories to total CO emissions changed considerably. In 1940, highway
vehicles contributed only about 27 percent of carbon monoxide emissions.
Residential fuel combustion (primarily of wood and coal), forest fires and other
burning (agricultural crop residues and coal refuse) contributed about 50
percent of total CO emissions. From 1940 to 1970, highway vehicle emissions
nearly tripled, while emissions from residential fuel combustion and
miscellaneous burning sources decreased substantially. As a result, in 1970
highway vehicles accounted for 40 percent of total CO emissions. Industrial
process CO emissions increased from 1940 to 1970 by about 35 percent. The
largest increase occurred in the petroleum refining sector, primarily as the
result of expansion of catalytic cracking capacity to meet increased demand for
gasoline and other middle distillates.
1970-1986
Since 1970, highway motor vehicles have been the largest contributing source
of CO emissions. Figure 17 shows how CO emissions from major highway
vehicle categories have changed from 1970-1986. The implementation of the
Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program (FMVCP) has been successful in
reducing CO emissions since the early 1970's. From 1970 through 1978, motor
vehicle miles of travel increased 38 percent, but because of controls on new
vehicles, total CO emissions from highway vehicles decreased 16 percent.
From 1978 to 1980, VMT declined by 1.7 percent. This lack of growth in
vehicle travel together with an increased degree of control because of stricter
emission standards for new vehicles and the gradual disappearance of older
uncontrolled vehicles from the vehicle fleet, produced an estimated 14 percent
drop in highway vehicle emissions in the two year period from 1978 to 1980.
Since 1980, VMT have grown each year. From 1980 to 1985, VMT increased by
21 percent. However, due to the FMVCP controls, CO emissions from highway
vehicles actually decreased 28 percent during this period. Overall from 1970 to
1985, without the implementation of FMVCP, highway vehicle emissions would
have increased 48 percent (Table 29, Figure 13). By comparison, actual
emissions are estimated to have decreased 44 percent.
CO emissions from other sources have also generally decreased. In 1970,
emissions from burning of agricultural crop residues were greater than in more
recent years. Solid waste disposal emissions have also decreased as the result
of implementation of regulations limiting or prohibiting burning of solid waste
63
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in many areas. Emissions of CO from stationary source fuel combustion occur
mainly from the residential sector. These emissions were reduced somewhat
through the mid-1970's as residential consumers converted to natural gas, oil,
or electric heating equipment. Recent growth in the use of residential wood
stoves has reversed this trend, but increased CO emissions from residential
sources continue to be small compared to highway vehicle emissions.
Nevertheless, in 1986 residential wood combustion accounted for about 10
percent of national CO emissions, more than any source category except
highway vehicles. CO emissions from industrial processes have generally been
declining since 1970 as the result of the obsolescence of a few high-polluting
processes such as manufacture of carbon black by the channel process and
installation of controls on other processes.
4.6 Lead
1970-1986
The emissions of lead have decreased due to the implementation of the
Federal Motor Vehicle Control Program (FMVCP). The implementation of
FMVCP has resulted in the use of catalytic converters to reduce NOX,VOC,
and CO emissions and has required the use of unleaded gasoline for vehicles
with converters. From 1970 through 1975, the highway use of gasoline
increased 16 percent, but because of the decrease in lead content in leaded
gasoline, lead emissions from highway vehicles decreased 24 percent. From
1975 to 1986, the percent unleaded gasoline sales increased from 13 to 69
percent, and the lead emissions decreased 94 percent (Table 12 and 29, Figure
18). In particular, a major reduction in lead emissions between 1984 and 1986
occurred because of EPA rules issued which required petroleum refiners to
lower the lead content ofleaded gasoline to 0.5 grams per gallon in 1985 and .1
grams per gallon in 1986. Previously, the lead content of leaded gasoline had
been 1.1 grams per gallon or more. From 1970 through 1986, off highway
consumption of gasoline decreased 34 percent while lead emissions decreased 98
percent.
Lead emissions also decreased from other sources. The 95 percent
decrease in stationary source fuel combustion is a result of the decrease in
lead concentration in waste oil utilized in industrial boilers. Lead emissions
decreased 92 percent for industrial processes from 1970 through 1986. Part of
this decrease reflects the changes that result from installation of air pollution
control equipment. As shown in Tables 12 and 29, the change in emissions as
a result of changes in operating rates would be a 40 percent reduction. Lead
emissions from solid waste disposal have decreased 60 percent from 1970
through 1986 as a result of the decreased amount of solid waste disposed of by
incineration.
64
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THIS PAGE LEFT BLANK INTENTIONALLY,
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5. REFERENCES
*1. National Emissions Report, National Emissions Data System (NEDS).
NADB, OAQPS, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research
Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-85-013. December
1985.
2. Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Fourth Edition,
Volumes I and II. US Environmental Protection Agency, Research
Triangle Park, NC and Ann Arbor, MI. Publication No. AP-42.
3. User's Guide to MOBILE3 (Mobile Source Emissions Model), US Envi-
ronmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution
Control, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Publication No. EPA-460/3-89-002.
June 184.
*4. Highway Statistics. Federal Highway Administration, US
Departmentof Transportation, Washington, DC. 1986.
*5. FAA Air Traffic Activity. Federal Aviation Administration, US
Department of Transportation, Washington, DC. 1986.
*6. Petroleum Supply Annual 1986, Energy Information Administration,
US Department of Energy. Washington, DC. Publication No.
DOE/EIA- 0340(86)/1. May 1987.
*7. Coal Distribution January-December, Energy Information
Administration, US Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Publication No. DOE/EIA-25(86/4Q). March 1987.
8. Exhaust Emissions from Uncontrolled Vehicles and Related Equipment
Using Internal Combustion Engines. Southwest Research Institute,
San Antonio, TX. Prepared for US Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. EPA Contract No. EHS 70-108.
Oct 1973.
9. Particulate Pollutant Systems Study. Midwest Research Institute,
Kansas City, MO. Prepared for US Environmental Protection
Agency.Research Triangle Park, NC. National Air Pollution Control
Administration Contract No. CPA 22-69-104. May 1971.
10. Standard Computer Retrievals from the National Emissions Data
System (NEDS). Unpublished computer report available from NADB,
OAQPS, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
Park, NC.
These publications are issued periodically. The most recent publication
available when this document was prepared is cited.
67
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*11. Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Utility Plants-1986, Energy
Information Administration, US Department of Energy, Washington,
D.C. Publication No. DOE/EIA-0191(86). July 1987.
*12. Natural Gas Annual, Energy Information Administration, US
Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No.
DOE/EIA-0131(86)/1. October 1987.
*13. Minerals Yearbook. Bureau of Mines, US Department of the
Interior, Washington, DC. 1984.
*14. Current Industrial Reports. Bureau of the Census, US Department
of Commerce, Washington, DC.
15. End Uses of Solvents Containing Volatile Organic Compounds, The
Research Corporation of New England, Wethersfield, CT, EPA
Publication EPA-450/3-79-032, May 1979.
16. 1968 National Survey of Community Solid Waste Practices. Public
Health Service, US Department of Health, Education, and Welfare,
Cincinnati, OH. PHS Publication No. 1867. 1968.
*17. Wildfire Statistics. Forest Service, US Department of Agriculture,
Washington, DC. 1986.
18. Emissions Inventory from Forest Wildfires, Forest Managed Burns,
and Agricultural Burns. US Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711. Publication No. EPA-450/3-74-
062. November 1974.
19. Coal Refuse Fires, An Environmental Hazard. Bureau of Mines, US
Department of the Interior, Washington, DC. Information Circular
8515. 1971.
*20. Statistical Abstract of the United States. Bureau of the Census,
US Department of Commerce, Washington, DC. 1987 (107th ed.)
*21. Chemical and Engineering News, Annual Facts and Figures Issue,
American Chemical Society, Washington, DC. June 8, 1987.
22. Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Species Data Manual Second
Edition, US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-80-015. July 1980.
23. Standard Industrial Classification Manual 1987, Executive Office of
the President, Office of Management and Budget, Washington, DC.
*These publications are issued periodically. The most recent
publication available when this document was prepared is cited.
68
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*24. Sulfur Content in Coal Shipments 1978, Energy Information
dministration, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC.
Publication No. DOE/EIA-0263(78). June 1981.
*25. Standard Computer Retrievals from the Flue Gas Desulfurization
Information System (FGDIS). Unpublished Computer Report Available
from the Air & Energy Engineering Research Laboratory, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC.
*26. Quarterly Coal Report, Energy Information Administration, U.S.
Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No.
DOE/EIA-0121(87/2Q). October 1987.
27. Estimates of U.S. Wood Energy Consumption from 1949 to 1981.
U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No.
DOE/EIA-0341. August 1982.
28. Organic Solvent Use in Web Coating Operations, Emission Standards
and Engineering Division, US Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/3-81-012.
September 1981.
29. AEROS Manual Series Volume IV: NADB Internal Operations Manual.
OAQPS Guidelines No. 1.2-041. U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC. January 1978.
30. Historic Emissions of Sulfur and Nitrogen Oxides in the United
States from 1900 to 1980. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, NC. April 1985. Publication No.
EPA-600/7-85-009.
31. Electric Power Annual, Energy Information Administration, U.S.
Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No.
DOE/EIA-0348(86). September 1987.
32. Telephone communication between Jacob Summers, OAQPS, and
Michael Petruska, Office of Solid Waste, US EPA, Washington, DC,
November 9, 1984.
*33. Synthetic Organic Chemicals, United States Production Sales, 1985,
United States International Trade Commission, Washington, DC
20436.
*34. Petroleum Marketing Monthly, Energy Information Administration,
U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC.; Publication No.
DOE/EIA-0380(87/07). October 1987.
These publications are issued periodically. The most recent publication
available when this document was prepared is cited.
69
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35. Estimates of U.S. Wood Energy Consumption 1980-1983. U.S.
Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Publication No.
DOE/EIA-0341(83). November 1984.
70
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO. 2.
EPA-450/4-87-024
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates,
1940-1986
7. AUTHOR(S)
Technical Support Division
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air and Radiation
Office of Air Quality Plannning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
IS. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
6. REPORT DATE
January 1988
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final - 1940-1986
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
16. ABSTRACT
This report presents estimates of trends in nationwide air pollutant emissions for
the six major pollutants: sulfur oxides, particulates, carbon monoxide, volatile
organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, and lead. Estimates are broken down according
to major types of air pollutant sources. A short analysis of emission trends is
given, along with a discussion of methods used to develop the data.
17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
a. DESCRIPTORS
trends, emissions, inventory, air
pollutants, nationwide, sulfur oxides,
carbon monoxide, particulates, volatile
organic compounds, nitrogen oxides,
controllable emissions, miscellaneous
sources, lead
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release unlimited
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report/
Unclassified
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
Unclassified
c. COSATI Field/Group
21. NO. OF PAGES
70
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (R«v. 4-77) PREVIOUS EDITION is OBSOLETE
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