A MONTE CARLO APPROACH TO SIMULATING
RESIDENTIAL OCCUPANCY PERIODS AND ITS APPLICATION
TO THE GENERAL U. S. POPULATION
by
Ted Johnson and Jim Cape!
International Technology Air Quality Services
South Square Corporate Centre One
3710 University Drive, Suite 201
Durham, North Carolina 27707-6208
Contract No. 68-DO-0119
Work Assignment No. 7
JTN 830018-07-02
Prepared for
U S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
OFFICE OF AIR QUALITY PLANNING & STANDARDS
EMISSION STANDARDS DIVISION
RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, NORTH CAROLINA 27711
AUGUST 199
CWca8<>. ii ....,.,:*
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DISCLAIMER
The statements and conclusions presented in this report are those of the
contractor. They do not necessarily reflect the policies of the U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency.
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CONTENTS
IV
Tables v
Acknowledgement
1. Introduction
3
2. Methodology
3
Overview
Application of the Methodology to the General U.S.
Population
3. Residential Duration Estimates 1°
The ROPSIM Program 16
Distribution of Residential Occupancy Periods in Selected
Population Subgroups 17
4. Assumptions and Possible Biases of the Methodology 30
33
References
Appendices
A. 1987 Population Data ^
B. 1987 Mobility Data °"}
C. 1987 Mortality Data
in
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TABLES
Number £aflfi
1 Estimates for U.S. Population of Group Size, Probability of
Being in Same Residence One Year Earlier (PSR), and
Probability of Death in Coming Year (PD) by Current Age
Based on 1987 Data 6
2 Sample Simulation for a Male Aged 14 Years Which Yields a
Residential Occupancy Period of Eleven Years 15
3 Cumulative Distribution of Residential Occupancy Period
Based on Simulation of 500,000 Persons Using Rates in
Table 1 18
4 Descriptive Statistics for Residential Occupancy Period
and Age at Death 22
5 Descriptive Statistics for Both Genders by Current Age 24
6 Descriptive Statistics for Males by Current Age 26
7 Descriptive Statistics for Females by Current Age 28
8 Descriptive Statistics for Residential Occupancy Period
and Age at Death Based on Five Runs of the Simulation
Using Rates in Table 1 32
IV
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The ROPSIM computer program was developed by IT Air Quality Services
(ITAQS) under the direction of the Pollutant Assessment Branch of the U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ITAQS project team consisted of Ted
Johnson and Jim Capel. Ted Johnson was the principal author of this report and
developed the general methodology described in Section 2. Jim Capel wrote the
computer programs that implemented the methodology.
Work on this project was funded under EPA Contract No. 68-DO-0119. Mike
Dusetzina served as the EPA Work Assignment Manager.
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SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
The Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) of the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for developing standards to
reduce emissions of hazardous air pollutants. Within OAQPS, the Pollutant Assessment
Branch (PAB) is responsible for assessing the health risks associated with exposure to
these em.ss.ons. In accordance with this responsibility, the PAB continually evaluates
and updates its exposure and risk assessment capabilities to reflect the current state of
knowledge.
The PAB is currently assessing the methodologies which EPA uses to estimate
exposure within populations residing near emission sources. In a typical exposure
analysis, the population residing within a specified radius of a particular source is
distributed over a set of receptor points. A dispersion model is used to estimate the
ambient (outdoor) pollutant concentrations at each receptor. Indoor concentrations at
each receptor may be set equal to outdoor concentrations or adjusted according to an
assumed indoor/outdoor ratio.
Exposures are usually determined for one-year increments of time. The
cumulative exposure of a particular resident at a particular receptor point is the sum of
the one-year exposures experienced by the resident for all years in which he or she is
assumed to reside at the receptor point. For simplicity, analysts usually assume that
this time is spent in the same residence.
In this report, the term "residential occupancy period (ROP)" is used to indicate
the number of years between the date that a person moves into a new residence and
the date that the person dies or moves out of the residence. Good estimates of
cumulative exposure require that the distribution of ROP within the exposed population
be well characterized.
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In many exposure assessments, ROP is assumed to be 70 years, a period
roughly equal to the average lifetime. Strictly speaking, this value shouia ce considered
an upper bound for ROP, as several studies have indicated that the average ROP of the
general population is less than 20 years.1
A value of 30 years has been previously suggested as the 90th percentile of
ROP. This value is based on a survey of households conducted by the Bureau of
Census (BOC) in 1983. In this survey, a household member was asked to provide the
year during which the household moved into their present residence.2 An analysis of
the responses for owner-occupied housing yielded a 50th percentile of 9.37 years and
a 90th percentile of 29.84 years.1 These estimates are not entirely appropriate as
indicators of the distribution of ROP in general population. In particular, these estimates
1) refer to elapsed time in the residence rather than to total occupancy period, 2) omit
persons living in rental housing, 3) apply to entire households rather than to individuals,
and 4) are based on data which may be out of date.
To provide more representative estimates of residential duration, the PAB
directed IT Air Quality Services, Inc. (ITAQS) to develop and implement a methodology
capable of estimating the distribution of ROP in the national population. ITAQS
developed a methodology which uses a Monte Carlo approach to simulate a
distribution of ROP values using readily-available data on mobility and mortality.
Section 2 of this report provides a description of the methodology. Section 3 presents
results of applying the methodology to the national population. Section 4 discusses
various assumptions employed in the methodology and how they may bias the
simulation.
Price, Sample, and Stricter have used a similar Monte Carlo approach to
determine the fraction of one's lifetime spent in the current residence. This
methodology has been incorporated into PSEM, a computer model for estimating
lifetime exposures to hazardous pollutants and associated cancer risks.3
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SECTION 2
METHODOLOGY
This section begins with an overview of a general methodology which yields a
distribution of ROP values representative of a defined population. It concludes with a
description of the application of the methodology to the general U.S. population.
2.1 Overview
The genera! methodology can be described as a six-step process. As discussed
below, Steps 1 through 5 consist of tasks in which the analyst defines the population
being modeled and develops appropriate data bases to represent this population.
These data bases are used to generate a distribution of ROP values in Step 6.
- In Step 1, the analyst defines a specific population of interest. Examples include
the general U.S. population, all blacks living in the Southeast, all women of child-
bearing age living in urban areas, and all persons living within 20 kilometers (km) of a
particular point source.
In Step 2, the analyst develops a comprehensive set of demographic groups
such that each member of the specified population can be assigned to one and only
one demographic group. The demographic groups should be defined to make
optimum use of the data on population, mobility, and mortality available for the specific
population of interest. The demographic group definitions should always include
current age as one of the descriptive factors. Other descriptive factors which may be
appropriate in a particular analysis include gender, race, location (urban vs. rural), and
income.
In Step 3, the analyst estimates the fraction of the specified population that falls
into each demographic group. If the demographic groups are defined according to
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descriptors used by the BOC (e.g., age and gender), then these estimates can be
developed directly from census data.
In Step 4, the analyst develops a mobility table for the population of interest
The mobility table provides listings by age of the probability that a person with specified
demographic characteristics did not move during the previous year. Data for this table
can be obtained from the P-20 series of reports on geographical mobility which have
been published by the BOC since 1981. These reports provide mobility data organized
by age, gender, race, region, level of urbanization, status within household (head of
household, other family member, etc.), presence of children, and a variety of other
factors.
In Step 5, a mortality table is developed for the population. The mortality table
provides listings by age of the probability that a person with specified demographic
characteristics will die during the upcoming year. Data for this table can be obtained
from various reports on vital statistics published by the National Center for Health
Statistics.
In Step 6, a computer-based algorithm is used to apply a Monte Carlo process
to a series of persons selected at random from the population being analyzed. The
process begins by randomly assigning each person to one of the demographic groups
defined in Step 2 according to the population fractions developed in Step 3. The
process then simulates a residential history for this person using data on mobility and
mortality developed in Steps 4 and 5 which are consistent with the person's
demographic group.
The residential history specifies when the person moved into his or her current
residence and when the person will die or move out of the current residence. Thus the
residential history determines the POP of the person with respect to his or her current
residence.
The process in Step 6 is repeated for n persons, where n is determined by the
analyst. As n becomes large, the distribution of simulated POP values is assumed to
approach the actual distribution of POP in the population of interest.
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Subsection 2.2 describes how this six-step process was used to develop a
distribution of ROP for the general U.S. population. It also provides a more detailed
description of the algorithm employed in Step 6.
2.2 Application of the Methodology to the General U.S. Population
2.2.1 Definition of the Population-of-lnterest
The population of interest was defined as the U.S. population as of July, 1987.
This year was selected because it was the most recent year for which data on
population, mobility, and mortality were simultaneously available.
2.2.2 Definition of Demographic Groups
A review of available data suggested that gender (male/female) and age (in
years) were good choices for defining demographic groups with respect to the general
U.S. population. As census data4 indicate that less than 0.03 percent of the U.S.
population exceed 100 years of age, the age categories were limited to 0 through 100.
A total of 202 demographic groups were defined according to this approach.
2.2.3 Estimation of Demographic Group Populations
Estimates of the number of persons within each group were developed from
data provided in a report by the BOC.4 Population values at one-year intervals for ages
0 to 64 were taken directly from a table in the report listing population estimates for July
1987 (Appendix A). As only five-year intervals were provided in this table for ages
above 64, values for one-year intervals above 64 were estimated through an
interpolation procedure. These estimates were developed by 1) converting the
population values for each five-year interval into cumulative population values, 2) fitting
a cubic spline to the five-year cumulative values, 3) using the spline to estimate the
cumulative values at one-year intervals, and 4) converting the one-year cumulative
values to one-year interval values. Table 1 lists the estimated demographic group
populations for ages 0 through 100.
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TABLE 1. ESTIMATES FOR U.S. POPULATION OF GROUP SIZE,
PROBABILITY OF BEING IN SAME RESIDENCE ONE YEAR
EARLIER (PSR), AND PROBABILITY OF DEATH IN COMING
YEAR (PD) BY CURRENT AGE BASED ON 1987 DATA.
r " r
Current
age,
years
0
1
2
3
' 4
5
6
7
- 8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Males
Group
size
1937
1867
1847
1820
1878
1866
1848
1855
1736
1732
1756
1657
1682
1653
1702
1812
1970
1930
1848
1887
1910
1921
PSR
0.681
0.681
0.726
0.728
0.775
0.781
0.785
0.787
0.828
0.834
0.823
0.830
0.834
0.853
0.831
0.844
0.860
0.865
0.826
0.761
0.752
0.697
PD
0.01120
0.00079
0.00061
0.00048
0.00040
0.00035
0.00032
0.00029
0.00026
0.00023
0.00020
0.00020
0.00027
0.00042
0.00062
0.00083
0.00105
0.00123
0.00137
0.00147
0.00158
0.00168
Females
Group
size
1847
1776
1765
1740
1790
1785
1764
1770
1654
1652
1665
1578
1598
1573
1620
1728
1875
1830
1784
1834
1863
1877
PSR
0.686
0.686
0.717
0.734
0.758
0.770
0.797
0.809
0.793
0.796
0.822
0.810
0.832
0.846
0.858
0.843
0.871
0.842
0.786
0.721
0.660
0.615
PD
0.00896
0.00062
0.00048
0.00038
0.00030
0.00025
0.00022
0.00019
0.00016
0.00014
0.00013
0.00013
0.00016
0.00021
0.00028
0.00037
0.00045
0.00051
0.00054
0.00054
0.00053
0.00054
(continued)
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TABLE 1 (Continued)
0.00251
0.00262
^MHV^^BMB^B-
0.00272
(continued)
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TABLE 1 (Continued)
Current
age,
years
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
Males
Group
size
1240
1205
1132
1159
1097
1061
1060
1035
1036
1033
1054
1093
1048
1072
1057
1024
1002
1003
981
961
931
900
868
835
PSR
0.871
0.903
0.895
0.899
0.867
0.882
0.918
0.920
0.916
0.913
0.928
0.928
0.900
0.922
0.929
0.923
0.915
0.921
0.912
0.927
0.937
0.930
0.944
0.940
PD
0.00449
0.00492
0.00541
0.00597
0.00661
0.00728
0.00801
0.00877
0.00958
0.01043
0.01137
0.01245
0.01371
0.01541
0.01670
0.01834
0.01995
0.02150
0.02304
0.02459
0.02634
0.02846
0.03110
0.03420
Group
size
1307
1269
1182
1213
1176
1127
1126
1094
1117
1129
1152
1185
1157
1202
1201
1174
1157
1153
1146
1127
1103
1079
1055
1031
Females
PSR
0.898
0.913
0.901
0.886
0.875
0.906
0.908
0.893
0.923
0.907
0.915
0.931
0.901
0.915
0.937
0.937
0.926
0.924
0.941
0.919
0.940
0.935
0.938
0.948
PD
0.00246
0.00273
0.00303
0.00335
0.00372
0.00411
0.00451
0.00491
0.00533
0.00577
0.00626
0.00684
0.00753
0.00832
0.00919
0.01011
0.01104
0.01194
0.01288
0.01387
0.01497
0.01624
0.01772
0.01940
(continued)
8
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TABLE 1 (Continued)
Current
age,
years
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
Males
Group
size
781
715
657
609
570
538
502
459
410
354
311
282
249
211
169
144
134
118
96
68
50
46
40
32
PSR
0.956
0.957
0.939
0.960
0.971
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
PD
0.03762
0.04122
0.04496
0.04880
0.05279
0.05702
0.06167
0.06685
0.07263
0.07909
0.08625
0.09421
0.10292
0.11233
0.12240
0.14443
0.14760
0.15157
0.15308
0.19479
0.23588
0.22241
0.21580
0.21753
Femaies
II
Group
size
986
927
879
843
818
790
749
706
660
611
560
509
459
410
361
326
301
268
228
182
149
133
115
95
PSR
0.950
0.937
0.939
0.955
0.954
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
PD
0.02126
0.02324
0.02538
0.02766
0.03013
0.03285
0.03591
0.03936
0.04329
0.04779
0.05296
0.05893
0.06587
0.07406
0.08379
0.09248
0.10549
0.11219
0.11949
0.14349
0.16373
0.17363
0.17766
0.18411
(continued)
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TABLE 1 (Continued)
=
irrent
ige,
ears
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
Group
size
23
17
15
11
6
0
0
=====
Males
PSR
0.954
0.954
0.954
~
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
==^
PD
0.24657
0.26394
0.21967
0.22364
0.29367
1 .00000
1 .00000
,_ ==
=====
Group
size
72
56
47
34
19
1
0
=====
Females
PSR
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
0.947
===
PD
0.21267
0.21809
0.20779
0.22768
0.30384
1.00000
1 .00000
=_==__
10
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2.2.4 Development of Mobility Table
Let PSR(i.j) indicate the probability that a person of gender i and age j was in the
same residence one year earlier; that is, the person did not move during the preceding
year. The value of PSR(i,j) can be estimated by the equation
PSR(i.j) = POPSR(i,j)/POPTOT(i,j), (1)
where POPSR(i.j) is the number of persons of gender i at age j who indicated that they
occupied the same residence one year earlier and POPTOT(i.j) is the total number of
persons of gender i at age j.
Data on POPSR and POPTOT are currently available for the years 1981 through
1987 from the BOC. The BOG conducted surveys in these years in which each
respondent was asked where he or she resided one year earlier. Permissible answers
included:
0 Same residence
Different residence - same county
0 Different residence - other county - same state
Different residence - other state - contiguous U.S.
Different residence - other state - noncontiguous U.S.
Different residence - other country.
The BOC extrapolated the survey responses to the general U.S. population.
The resulting mobility statistics for 1987 are presented in Reference 5 in a series
of tables organized by various demographic categories. Under the categories "male"
and "female", data are tabulated by age in single year intervals from 1 to 74. Totals for
the age range "75 years and over" are also provided. Appendix B contains facsimiles
of these tables.
The ratio of males reporting "same residence" in a particular age interval to the
total number of males in the age interval was used as an estimate of PSR(i,j) for the
interval. PSR(iJ) values for females were estimated in a similar manner. For each
gender, a single value of PSR(i.j) is used for ages 75 + . Table 1 lists the PSR(i,j) values
used in the analysis under the heading "PSR". Values increase from birth to the late
11
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teens and then fall to a minimum in the middle twenties. The values then increase
again to a plateau which starts in the middle 60"s.
2.2.5 Development of Mortality Table
Let PD(i,j) indicate the probability that a person of gender i and age j will die
during the next year. The value of PD(iJ) can be estimated from the equation
PD(i,j) = [POPA(i,j) - POPS(i,j)]/POPA(i,j), (2)
where POPA(ij) is the number of persons of gender i and age j alive at the beginning of
the current year and POPS(i.j) is the number of persons who survive to the beginning
of the next year. Values of POPA and POPS can be obtained from "current life" tables.
These tables, prepared by the National Center for Health Statistics, consider a
hypothetical cohort containing 100,000 persons which is subject throughout its lifetime
to the death rates prevailing in a specified year. Appendix C provides the current life
table for 1987. The table shows the number of survivors expected at each year of life
up to 85 years.6
To determine PD(i,j), the value in the lifetable for age j was substituted for
POPA(iJ) and the value in the table for j + 1 was substituted for POPS(i.j). This
procedure produced gender-specific estimates of PD(i,j) for ages 0 through 84.
Another procedure was used to determine PD(i,j) values for ages 85 and above.
In this case. PD(i,j) was estimated by the equation
PD(i,j) = POPD(i,i)/POP(i,j), (3)
where POP(i.j) is the number of persons of gender i at age j and POPD(ij) is the
number of people of gender i at age j who will die within the next year. Estimates of
POP(i,j) for ages 85 to 100 were developed earlier and are listed in Table 1 under the
heading "group size." Estimates of POPD(i,j) for 1987 were taken from a general
mortality table prepared by the National Center for Health Statistics.6 Appendix C
contains a facsimile of this table. For simplicity, a 100 percent death rate was assumed
for age 99. As previously indicated, less than 0.03 percent of the population live to be
older than 100.
12
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Table 1 lists the values of PD(i,j) estimated by the two procedures for males and
females. In general, the death rate for males at a given age is higher than the
corresponding death rate for females.
2.2.6 Implementation of the Monte Carlo Algorithm
The Monte Carlo algorithm consists of the following four-step process. The
process is repeated for each person selected from the population of interest.
In Step 1, the person's gender is randomly determined with probability
proportional to the male/female breakdown of the defined population. In 1987, 48.8
percent of the general U.S. population was male.4
In Step 2, the person's current age in years is randomly determined according to
the distribution of ages in the defined population for the gender determined in Step 1.
Table 1 presents the data used for the 1987 analysis.
Let E equal the elapsed time already spent by a person in his or her current
residence, and let F equal the future time that the person will spend in the current
residence. A value for E is generated in Step 3 through the use of the following
iterative process. A randomly generated number between zero and one is first
compared with PSR(i.j), where PSR(i.j) is determined by the person's gender and
current age. If the random number is less than PSR(i.j), the person is assumed to have
lived in his current residence for the entire preceding year. The process is then
repeated using a PSR(i.j) value consistent with the person's age one year earlier. The
process ends when the person is found to have moved during the preceding year or
reaches the age of zero. The elapsed time is E years, where E is the number of years
going backward in which the person did not move during each preceding year.
The value of F, the future time spent in the residence, is determined in Step 4 by
another iterative process. A randomly generated number between zero and one is first
compared with PD(i,j), where PD(i,j) is the probability that a person of gender i at age j
will die during the next year. If the random number is less than PD(l,j), the person is
assumed to die during the next year. The process stops and F is set equal to zero.
13
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If the random number is larger than PD(i,j), the person is assumed to survive for
one more year. The age of this person at the end of this year is j + 1. Another
random number is generated and compared with PSR(i,j + 1), the probability that
someone of gender i and age j + 1 will have moved during the preceding year. If the
random number is less than PSR(i,j + 1), then the person is assumed to have lived in
his current residence for this entire year. The process is then repeated using values of
PD(ij) and PSR(i.j) consistent with the person's age during each future year. The
process ends when the person is found to have died or moved during a particular year.
The parameter F is set equal to the number of future years spent in the same
residence.
The value of ROP for the simulated person is calculated by the equation
residential occupancy period = E + F + 1. ( )
The extra year added to the sum of E and F compensates for the fact that E tends to
underest,mate the actual elapsed time spent in the residence and F tends to
underestimate the actual future time ,n the residence. For example, a value of E equal
to 6 years indicates that the actual elapsed time falls between 6 and 7 years. Similarly,
a value of 4 for F indicates that the actual future time falls between 4 and 5 years. In
this case, the sum of the actual elapsed time and the actual future time falls somewhere
between 10 and 12 years. A reasonable "best" estimate would be 11 years, the value
of E + F + 1.
Table 2 presents a sample simulation for a male, aged 14, which yields a value
for E of 6 years and a value for F of 4 years. Based on Equation 4, the estimated ROP
for this person is 6 + 4 + 1 = 11 years.
14
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TABLE 2 SAMPLE SIMULATION FOR A MALE AGED 14 YEARS
WHICH YIELDS A RESIDENTIAL OCCUPANCY PERIOD
OF ELEVEN YEARS
Elapsed time simulation:
Calendar year Age
1987 14
1986 13
1985 12
1984 11
1983 10
1982 9
1981 8
Elapsed time = 6 years
Future time simulation:
Calendar Random
year Age number
1987 14 0.995
1988 15 0.462
0.367
1989 16 0.340
0.840
1990 17 0.245
0.137
1991 18 0.507
0.220
1992 19 0.899
Future time = 4 years
Reciripntial oncuoancv oeriod
Random
number
0.738
0.478
0.139
0.417
0.588
0.783
0.849
PD
0.00062
0.00083
0.00105
0.00123
0.00137
Moved during
preceding
PSR year?
0.831
0.853
0.834
0.830
0.823
0.834
0.828
Survive
another
year? PSR
Yes
0.844
Yes
0.860
Yes
0.865
Yes
0.826
Yes
0.761
= elapsed time + future time + 1
No
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Moved
during
preceding
year?
No
No
No
No
Yes
= 11 years
15
-------
SECTION 3
RESIDENTIAL DURATION ESTIMATES
A computer program (ROPSIM) was developed which implements the Monte
Carlo algorithm described in Subsection 2.2.6. This section describes the output of the
program and summarizes the results of using the program to simulate resident
occupancy periods for 500,000 persons.
3.1 The ROPSIM Program
The ROPSIM user provides three input data sets: 1) the number of persons in
the populat-on of interest by gender and age, 2) the probability of moving during the
preceding year by gender and age, and 3) the probability of dying during the coming
year by gender and age. The user also specifies the number of persons to be
considered in the simulation.
Based on these inputs, the ROPSIM program produces a series of tables
indicating the distribution of ROP for various population groups. Each table lists ROP
values in one year intervals from zero to 100 years and indicates the number of
persons who were assigned each value in the simulation. Mean values and cumulative
percentages are also provided.
In addition to ROP statistics, the program provides the distribution of current age
(i.e., the age used to start each simulation). The program also provides the distribution
of age at death for all simulated persons who die while residing at the current
residence. Results are provided for the following population groups:
Both genders, all ages (one group)
Males, all ages (one group)
Females, all ages (one group)
Both genders, current age = 3, 6, 9, ..., 90 (30 groups)
16
-------
Males, current age = 3, 6, 9, ..., 90 (30 groups)
Females, current age = 3, 6, 9 90 (30 groups).
The program can be easily modified to tabulate results for other groups defined by
gender and current age.
3.2 Distribution of Residential Occupancy Periods in Selected Population
Subgroups
The ROPSIM program was run for 500,000 persons using the values for
population, mobility, and mortality listed in Table 1 as input. These input data are
considered representative of the general U.S. population. Tables 3 through 7 present
descriptive statistics concerning the distribution of POP for various population groups
obtained from this run.
The group described as "both genders, ail ages," corresponds to the total
population. Simulation results for this group are presented in Tables 3 and 4 under the
heading "both genders." These results are based on all 500,000 simulated persons.
The estimated mean POP is 11.7 years. The distribution is heavily skewed: the 25th,
50th, and 75th quartiles are 4 years, 9 years, and 16 years, respectively. The 90th,
95th, and 99th percentiles are 26, 33, and 47 years, respectively.
' The second largest simulated POP (n = 500,000) for both genders is 75 years;
the largest value is 87 years. Note that extreme values are a function of sample size
and will generally increase as the number of simulated persons increases. When
sample size is held constant, extreme values can be expected to vary with each run of
ROPSIM because of the random elements contained in the program algorithm.
Tables 3 and 4 also provide results for males and females considered as
separate groups. Mean ROP is less for males (11.1 years) than for females (12.3
years). The median (50th percentile) value is 8 years for males and 9 years for
females. This pattern is repeated in the upper tail of the distributions. The 95th
percentile is 31 years for males and 35 years for females. Similarly, the 99th percentile
is 44 years for males and 49 years for females.
17
-------
TABLE 3 CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF RESIDENTIAL
OCCUPANCY PERIOD BASED ON SIMULATION OF 500,000
PERSONS USING RATES IN TABLE 1
, . 11^^^^
Residential
occupancy period,
years
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
II 23
Cumulative percentage
Both genders
4.83
11.50
18.80
25.86
32.55
38.66
44.30
49.51
54.22
58.44
62.29
65.77
68.91
71.72
74.29
76.59
78.68
80.60
82.36
83.95
85.34
86.61
87.75
Males
4.96
11.90
19.53
26.88
33.85
40.24
46.08
51.43
56.20
60.52
64.43
67.94
71.07
73.93
76.49
78.75
80.80
82.72
84.46
85.99
87.32
88.53
89.62
J
Females
4.70
11.12
18.10
24.90
31.32
37.15
42.59
47.68
52.33
56.46
60.24
63.69
66.84
69.61
72.19
74.51
76.65
78.58
80.36
82.01
83.46
84.78
85.96 |
(continued)
18
-------
TABLE 3 (Continued)
Residential
occupancy period,
years
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Cumulative percentage
Both genders
88.79
89.74
90.61
91.41
92.16
92.84
93.49
94.10
94.65
95.16
95.62
96.08
96.48
96.84
97.17
97.47
97.77
98.03
98.26
98.47
98.65
98.82
98.97
99.11
99.24
Males
90.60
91.45
92.22
92.93
93.59
94.20
94.75
95.27
95.76
96.21
96.60
96.97
97.31
97.60
97.87
98.12
98.37
98.58
98.77
98.93
99.07
99.19
99.31
99.42
99.51
Females
87.06
88.11
89.06
89.95
90.80
91.53
92.29
92.98
93.59
94.16
94.69
95.23
95.68
96.11
96.50
96.85
97.20
97.50
97.77
98.03
98.26
98.46
98.65
98.82
98.98
(continued)
19
-------
TABLE 3 (Continued)
Residential
occupancy period,
years
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
I
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
Cumulative percentage
Both genders
99.35
99.45
99.53
99.61
99.68
99.73
99.78
99.82
99.85
99.88
99.90
99.92
99.94
99.95
99.97
99.97
99.98
99.98
99.99
99.99
99.99
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Males
99.59
99.66
99.72
99.76
99.81
99.84
99.88
99.90
99.92
99.94
99.95
99.96
99.97
99.98
99.99
99.99
99.99
99.99
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Females
99.13
99.25
99.35
99.46
99.54
99.62
99.68
99.74
99.78
99.82
99.85
99.88
99.90
99.93
99.95
99.96
99.97
99.97
99.98
99,99
99.99
99.99
100.00
100.00
100.00 I
(continued)
20
-------
TABLE 3 (Continued)
Residential
:upancy p
years
^^^^^-^^^^«
74
75
al
sriod,
Cumulative percentage
Both genders
100.00
100.00
Males
100.00
100.00
Females
100.00
100.00
21
-------
TABLE 4 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR RESIDENTIAL OCCUPANCY
PERIOD AND AGE AT DEATH
==============='
Statistic
Number of simulated persons
Residential occupancy period, years
Mean
5th percentile
10th percentile
25th percentile
50th percentile
75th percentile
90th percentile
95th percentile
98th percentile
99th percentile
i99.5th percentile
99.8th percentile
99.9th percentile
Second largest value
Largest value
Age at death, years"
Mean
25th percentile
50th percentile
75th percentile
90th percentile
95th percentile
Percentage of simulated persons
who die in current residence
Value of statistic
Both genders
500,000
11.7
2
2
4
9
16
26
33
41
47
51
55
59
75
87
77.2
71
80
86
92
95
13.4
Males only
244,274
11.1
2
2
4
8
15
24
31
39
44
48
53
56
73
73
74.9
69
77
84
90
92
13.3
==^====
Females only
255,726
12.3
2
ty II
5
9
17
28
35
43
49
53
58
61
75
87
79.7
73
82
89
93
96
13.4
==^====
i^
"Includes only deaths which occur while occupying current residence.
22
-------
Tables 5, 6, and 7 present descriptive statistics for subgroups defined by the
current age of the person. As described in Section 2, the ROP of a particular simulated
person is determined by moving backwards and forwards in time from this age. Each
table presents cumulative percentages for the number of persons who start the
simulation at selected values of current age (3, 6, 9, ..., 90 years). For example, Table
5 indicates that 32.1 percent of the simulated persons started with current ages of 21
years or less.
Each of the tables presents means and selected percentiles of ROP for the listed
values of current age. Each table also indicates the percentage of persons in each
current age group who are expected to die while occupying his or her current
residence.
Table 5 indicates that the mean ROP for both genders combined increases from
6.5 years at age 3 to 9.3 years at age 12 and then falls to 5.2 years at age 24. Mean
ROP then steadily increases to 21.6 years at age 72 where it remains fairly constant
through age 81. This plateau is followed by a small decrease to 18.9 years at age 90.
Table 5 indicates that persons with current ages between 0 and 90 account for 99.69
percent of the simulated persons.
23
-------
TABLE 5. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR BOTH GENDERS
BY CURRENT AGE
Current
age, years
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
I 27
I 30
33
36
:
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
63
Cumulative
percentage
nf
OT
simulated
persons
6.00
10.47
14.69
18.79
22.89
27.46
32.10
37.23
42.66
48.11
53.33
58.21
62.75
66.73
70.29
73.27
76.07
78.76
81.48
84.25
86.97
Residential occupancy period, years
Mean
6.5
8.0
8.9
9.3
9.1
8.2
6.0
5.2
6.0
7.3
8.7
10.4
12.0
13.5
15.3
16.6
17.4
18.3
19.1
19.7
20.2
Percentile
25
3
4
5
5
5
4
2
2
3
3
4
5
5
6
7
8
9
9
10
11
11
50
5
7
8
9
8
7
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
75
8
10
12
13
12
11
8
6
8
9
11
13
15
18
20
22
24
25
26
27
27
90
13
15
16
16
16
16
13
11
12
14
17
21
24
27
31
32
33
34
35
35
36
95
17
18
18
18
18
19
17
15
16
19
23
28
31
35
38
39
39
40
41
40
41
99
22
22
22
23
23
23
23
25
27
32
39
47
48
49
52
52
50
50
51
51
51
Percentage
of group
who die in
current
residence
0.16 I
0.29
0.15
0.18 I
0.43
0.31
0.31
0.52
0.73
1.26
1.84
3.98
5.02
8.20
11.67
14.80
19.34
24.56
28.38
35.53
40.23
(continued)
24
-------
TABLE 5 (Continued)
=======
Current
age, years
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
All ages
======
Cumulative
percentage
of
Ul
simulated
persons
89.52
91.84
93.87
95.61
97.00
98.09
98.86
99.37
99.69
100.00
Residential occupancy period, years
Mean
20.7
21.2
21.6
21.5
21.4
21.2
20.3
20.6
18.9
11.7
Percentile
25
12
12
13
13
12
11
11
10
8
4
=
50
20
20
20
20
19
20
19
18
15
9
75
28
29
29
29
29
29
28
29
27
16
90
36
37
37
38
38
39
37
39
40
26
95
41
42
43
43
44
45
44
46
47
33
99
50
50
53
53
53
55
56
57
56
47
=^=
Percentage
of group
who die in
current
residence
48.12
55.82
60.57
62.59
65.96
71.47
76.41
80.35
83.11
13.37
25
-------
TABLE 6 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR MALES BY CURRENT AGE
r r
Current
age, years
1 3
6
9
12
15
i 18
I 21
24
II 27
I 3°
33
36
I 39
42
45
I 48
51
54
I 5?
60
II 63
.
Cumulative
sercentage
of
simulated
males
6.33
11.01
15.44
19.74
24.05
28.82
33.66
38.90
44.49
50.16
55.54
60.56
65.13
69.13
72.70
75.70
78.51
81.16
83.85
86.52
89.07
Residential occupancy period, years
Mean
6.5
8.1
9.1
9.4
9.4
8.6
6.5
5.3
5.7
6.8
8.0
9.5
10.8
12.4
14.5
15.7
16.7
18.1
18.3
19.1
19.5
Percentile
25
3
4
5
5
6
4
3
2
2
3
4
4
5
5
7
8
9
10
10
11
11
50
5
7
8
9
9
7
5
4
4
5
6
7
8
10
12
13
14
16
17
18
18
75
8
11
13
13
12
12
9
7
7
9
10
12
14
16
19
21
22
24
25
26
26
90
13
16
17
17
17
17
14
11
11
13
15
19
22
25
29
30
32
33
33
33
35
95
17
18
19
19
19
19
18
15
15
17
20
26
29
32
36
37
38
39
39
39
40
99
22
22
23
23
23
24
24
24
26
29
33
42
46
47
49
48
48
49
49
51
49
Percentage of
group who die
in current
residence
0.16
0.36
0.20
0.20
0.60
0.49
0.57
0.71
0.88
1.48
2.04
4.00
5.11
8.84
13.12
16.57
22.72
29.66
32.14
39.14
45.87
(continued)
26
-------
TABLE 6 (Continued)
Current
age, years
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
All Ages
f*i imi itotiv/o
oui i luiauve
percentage
of
simulated
males
91.49
93.62
95.42
96.89
97.99
98.78
99.32
99.65
99.84
100.00
Residential occupancy period, years
Mean
19.7
20.3
20.4
21.4
20.5
21.5
20.0
20.6
20.2
11.1
==^=
Percentile
25
11
12
12
12
12
12
11
9
8
4
50
19
19
19
20
19
20
19
18
18
8
75
26
27
27
29
27
29
26
30
29
15
90
35
36
35
37
37
39
36
40
41
24
95
40
40
41
41
43
45
42
48
45
31
99
49
48
50
51
51
54
57
55
52
44
Percentage of
group who die
in current
residence
54.32
62.66
67.89
69.91
72.33
80.21
82.26
83.06
88.62
13.32
27
-------
TABLET. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR FEMALES BY CURRENT AGE
Current
age,
years
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
" 30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
I 63
Cumulative
percentage of
simulated
females
5.69
9.95
13.97
17.86
21.79
26.15
30.62
35.64
40.91
46.16
51.22
55.96
60.48
64.44
67.99
70.96
73.75
76.47
79.21
82.07
84.96
Residential occupancy period, years
Mean
6.5
7.9
8.7
9.2
8.8
7.8
5.4
5.2
6.4
7.8
9.4
11.3
13.1
14.6
16.0
17.6
18.1
18.4
19.8
20.3
20.8
Percentile
25
3
4
5
5
5
4
2
2
3
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
9
9
10
11
12
50
5
7
8
9
8
7
4
4
5
6
7
9
10
12
13
15
16
16
18
19
20
75
8
11
12
12
12
11
7
6
8
10
12
14
17
19
21
23
24
26
27
28
29
90
13
15
15
16
15
15
12
11
13
15
19
23
26
29
32
24
35
35
37
36
37
95
17
18
17
18
18
18
16
14
17
21
25
31
34
37
40
42
41
41
42
41
41
99
21
22
21
22
22
23
23
25
30
36
44
49
49
50
54
54
52
52
54
41
54
Percentage of
group who die
in current
residence
0.17
0.22
0.09
0.16
0.26
0.14
0.05
0.34
0.58
1.02
1.63
3.97
4.93
7.59
10.24
13.11
16.06
19.82
(continued)
28
-------
TABLE 7 (Continued)
Current
age,
years
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
All ages
C*\ imi ilatiwp
percentage of
simulated
females
87.64
90.14
92.40
94.38
96.06
97.43
98.42
99.11
99.55
100.00
Residential occupancy period, years
Mean
21.6
22.0
22.5
21.6
21.9
21.1
20.5
20.5
18.4
12.3
Percentile
25
13
13
13
13
13
11
11
10
8
5
50
21
21
21
20
20
19
18
18
15
9
75
29
30
30
29
30
29
28
28
26
17
90
37
38
39
39
39
39
38
39
39
28
95
43
43
45
44
45
45
44
46
47
35
99
51
53
55
54
54
55
55
58
56
49
Percentage of
group who die
in current
residence
42.74
50.00
55.00
57.49
62.23
66.79
73.55
79.01
80.95
13.43
29
-------
SECTION 4
ASSUMPTIONS AND POSSIBLE BIASES OF THE METHODOLOGY
The methodology proposed in this report was designed to make use of the most
detailed mobility and mortality data currently available. As described in Section 2, these
data were used to estimate the one-year probabilities of dying (PD) and of not moving
(PSR) as a function of gender and age. These probabilities were in turn used in a
Monte Carlo process which simulated the occurrence of these events over multiyear
periods.
It is important to note that PD and PSR are functions only of gender and age. In
particular, the Monte Carlo process assumes that these probabilities are independent of
1) the calendar year to which they are applied and 2) the past history of the person
being simulated. Neither of these assumptions is entirely correct.
The first assumption concerns the applicability of a single set of PD and PSR
values to all calendar years included in the simulation. The values of PSR and PD listed
in Table 1 were determined from 1987 data. While they are probably representative of
mobility and mortality rates of the 1980's, they are unlikely to be representative of rates
in effect during earlier decades. Moreover, it is difficult to predict the applicability of
these rates to future decades. These uncertainties may produce a bias in the
distribution of simulated occupancy periods with respect to the unknown "true"
distribution of occupancy periods associated with the general U.S. population of 1987.
This bias would be most evident in the upper tail of the distribution, where occupancy
periods include calendar years far removed from 1987. The direction and magnitude of
this bias is not known.
The second assumption concerns the applicability of a single set of PD and PSR
values to persons with varying histories of mobility. In the Monte Carlo procedure, a
man aged 55 who has lived in his current residence for 30 years is given the same
30
-------
probability of not moving as a man of the same age who has lived in his current
residence for only 5 years. This probability is based on the average behavior of 55-
year-old males as determined by a survey questionnaire administered by the BOC to a
sample of persons in this age group.
Intuitively, one would expect that a person who has lived in his current residence
for an extended period of time is more tied to his home than another person who has
lived in his current residence for a relatively brief period of time. The former person is
less likely to move in the coming year; the latter person is more likely to move. If this
pattern holds for the general population, then the Monte Carlo process proposed here
will tend to underestimate the occurrence of very large occupancy periods. The degree
of this bias is difficult to characterize, as there are no known data bases available which
relate a person's future plans to move to his or her past moving history.
The reader should also note that the ROP statistics presented in earlier sections
of this report are based on a single run of the ROPSIM program. Because ROPSIM
employs a Monte Carlo approach to estimate occupancy period, each run of the
program will produce results that differ slightly. These differences will be most evident
in the extreme upper tails of the simulated distributions.
Table 8 presents selected statistics for the population group labeled "both
genders, all ages" based on five runs of ROPSIM with n = 500,000. There is no
significant variation in the five values of ROP associated with each of the listed
percentiles. The values listed for the largest ROP vary from 79 to 92 years.
31
-------
TABLE 8 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR RESIDENTIAL OCCUPANCY PERIOD AND
AGE AT DEATH BASED ON FIVE RUNS OF THE SIMULATION
USING RATES IN TABLE 1
Statistic3
Residential occupancy period, years
Mean
10th percentile
25th percentile
50th percentile
75th percentile
90th percentile
95th percentile
98th percentile
99th percentile
99.5th percentile
99.8th percentile
99.9th percentile
Largest value
Age at death, years5
Mean
25th percentile
50th percentile
75th percentile
90th percentile
95th percentile
Percentage of persons who die in
current residence
Value of statistic by run
A
11.7
2
4
9
16
26
33
41
46
51
56
59
82
77.2
71
80
86
92
95
13.3
B
11.7
2
4
9
16
26
33
41
46
51
56
59
79
77.2
71
80
86
92
95
13.3
C
11.7
2
4
9
16
26
33
41
47
51
56
59
88
77.3
71
80
86
92
95
13.3
D
11.7
2
4
9
16
26
33
41
47
51
56
59
92
77.3
71
80
86
92
95
13.3
E
11.7
2
4
9
16
26
33
41
46
51
56
59
88
77.2
71
80
86
92
95
13.3
Mean
11.7
2
4
9
16
26
33
41
46
51
56
59
86
77.2
71
80
86
92
95
13.3
aApplies to group defined as "both
blncludes only deaths which occur
genders, all ages."
while occupying current residence.
32
-------
REFERENCES
1. "Exposure Factors Handbook," 1989, EPA-600/8-89-43, U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Washington, D.C.
2 Bureau of Census, 1983, Current Housing Reports, Series H-150-83, "Housing
Characteristics of Recent Movers for the United States and Regions: 1983.
Annual Housing Survey: 1983, Part D," Washington, D.C.
3 Price Paul S James Sample, Robert Stricter, 1991, "Determination of Less-than-
Lifetime Exposures to Point Source Emissions," submitted to Risk Analysis.
4 Bureau of Census, 1990, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Number 1057,
"U.S. Population Estimates by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1989," U. S.
Department of Commerce.
5 Bureau of Census, 1989, Current Population Reports, Series P-20, Number 430,
"Geographical Mobility: March 1986 to March 1987," U. S. Department of
Commerce.
6 National Center for Health Statistics, 1990, Vital Statistics of the United States:
1987, Volume II - Mortality. Part A U.S. Department of Health and Human
Services, Hyattsville, Maryland.
33
-------
APPENDIX A
1987 POPULATION DATA
A-1
-------
Tab* 1. Total Population Including Armed Fore** Ov*K**a*-Eatlmataa, by Age, S*x, Rac*
and Hispanic Origin: 1980 and 1986-89-con.
OMandaa*
JULY 1. 1t*7 -
Ontftv § rMrt
1 Y^^* , . ._ ......TT
3 r»*»
& to y**m
S y**ra __
A y8f6Jf8j . ......r mm,-r-,--mmmm
10 *> 14 ywra
10 v*4n
12 r««n
13 y*m
14 yTW^ __. ;,
is to 18 t*tn
16 v*m
11 y«n .
20 10 24 ««.-_
X i**n
22 l«n
23 yr^l .....
24 r*«n
25 ID 29 mm
JS *»
X r«ra
27 vMn
29 y*8W».-,_- -
1? («*n .........
34 yw* HII
35 10 » »«n-
jfl nan
30 T*W1 ^^.^...T^
40 K> 44 rMra
*fl YVOTi
42 y«m
<1 >«« ......
44 y«re
40 ^»»».^.. _».. ....
46 yT^*......i
49*Mf*
*tj r**r*
53 ywre J , -
54 yatn
57 y«tvt
54 y««n . .
59 y«M* ,
60 10 64 VMft
61 yiun j ..........
42 y^*»» ..
65 10 69 VMl*
70 10 74 yon
75 10 79 yMn
80 10 64 VMX
65 10 66 ynra
90 10 94 r»n
100 y««n «nd o«n» ..
16 m«m «nO OMT
65 rwn
116 867
9 348
637
667
647
620
678
037
866
646
6S5
736
732
450
758
57
82
S3
702
446
612
970
930
46
867
10 062
-1 910
1 921
2 006
2 082
2 152
11 116
2 201
2 221
2 145
2 317
10 725
2 294
2 155
2 141
2 083
2 074
9 320
1 962
1 804
1 826
1 776
1 642
7 683
1 975
1 372
1 397
1 414
1 504
6 03
1 296
1 240
2OS
T 132
1 159
S 288
1 08
1 08
1 080
1 035
1 036
5 30
1 033
1 054
1 093
1 046
1 07
5 067
1 05
1 024
1 002
1 003
Ml
4 494
3 333
28M
1 222
559
191
48
9
80 349
68 44t
12 111
80C
30.1
334
r u.
24 848
6 816
1 647
776
765
740
780
25
765
7«4
770
854
H2
035
65
S7I
596
573
620
051
728
675
830
764
834
601
-663
877
975
2 065
2 121
10 986
2 175
2 199
2 128
2 280
10 663
2 267
2 148
2 132
2 070
2 067
9 486
1 968
- 1 823
1 882
1 818
1 677
7 930
2 023
1 422
1 446
1 476
1 582
6 326
1 355
1 307
1 269
1 182
1 213
~S 641
1 176
1 127
1 126
1 094
1 117
5 625
1 129
1 152
1 185
1 157
1 202
5 631
1 201
1 174
1 157
1 153
1 146
B 3*4
4 453
3 516
2 2M
1 SOS
563
1M
3S
97«J8
93 6*
17 721
2 061
33J
3SJ
tan
WMi
TOM
tat 169
14 750
3046
2 9S2|
2 919
I 676
2655
14 141
2942
t 821
2821
2 729
2727
13 246
2 751
2 803
2 645
2 586
2 658
15 043
2 646
3 117
3 078
2 864
3 037
16 506
-3 082 I
3 114
3 265
3 456
3 560
18 520
3 857
3 724
3 697
3 579
3 864
16 024
3 821
3614
3 564
3 468
3 508
16007
3 370
3 233
3 123
3 063
3 1*8
13 526
3 480
2 408
2 450
2 504
2 672
10 <38
2 273
2 183
2 119
2 005
2045
440
1 951
1 882
1 883
1 845
1 859
9 740
1 673
1 «30
1 995
1 936
2 00*
9 648
1 975
1 943
1 914
1 922
1 695
6 625
7 000
5 214
3 229
1 70S
6M
171
37
161 11!
154 911
26 874
2 801
32.1
SSJ
Urt.
100 624
7 565
1 A64
1 616
1 466
1 473
1 816
7 306
1 606
1 466
1 466
1 4O2
1 400
6604
1 415
1 336
1 366
1 328
1 366
7 660
1 456
1 596
1 562
1 510
1 542
6 362
- 1 see!
1 579
1 «2
1 748
1 604
1 852
1 668
1 873
1 812
1 963
6 115
1 839
1 827
1 616
1 757
1 774
6 030
1 701
1 623
1 SA4
1 541
i aoo
6 715
1 741
1 196
1 217
1 237
1 323
S 243
1 121
1.061
1 042
990
1 006
4 614
951
927
927
906
904
4 675
9O3
930
9G5
926
851
4 506
929
908
893
899
677
4 029
3 004
2 038
1 113
505
17
4
77 7*1
74 61
10 KH
72
311
34J
ftm*,
IOS 176
7 166
1 437
1 423
1 402
1 438
6635
1 434
1 423
1 423
1 327
6443
1 336
1 287
1 266
1 280
1 2M
7 353
1 387
1 519
1 496
1 454
1 405
8 144
-1 524
1 535
1 623
1 707
1 756
132
1 60S
1 634
1 624
1 767
1 901
6 909
1 862
1 787
1 776
1 730
1 734
7 877
1 866
1 606
1 556
1 542
1 686
6M>
1 748
1 213
1 233
1 267
1 346
5 362
1 151
1 112
1 077
1 015
1 037
4 625
1 000
9*6
868
636
956
5 065
966
1 OOO
1 COO
1 01O
1 OSS
5 140
1 045
1 033
1 021
1 023
1 017
4 7*7
3 698
3 ITS
2 112
1 20C
51(
131
31
63 S24
80 301
It 68!
1 86!
34J
37J
6*0>
TOM
26667
2 756
UM
545
541
531
554
2 726
556
546
566
531
521
2 560
541
5O6
506
506
531
2 799
556
SOS
552
540
554
2 80S
---562
564
562
564
572
2 646
S74
571
573
546
560
2 612
S7»
S32
523
48O
466
2 118
462
444
432
386
384
-4-»48
363
283
2M
290
300
1 324
290
271
274
237
252
1 168
I 2S1
Z31
230
223
234
1 113
230
221
229
216
217
1 012
231
207
196
189
187
670
M7
405
244
134
H
21
«
21 234
1 20 OM
t 2 444
1 22C
1 27J
t 30.4
IM>
14 2O7
1 399
296
277
275
270
262
1 363
283
276
267
266
266
1 115
275
2S7
257
257
268
1 413
263
303
281
270
276
1 368
274
273
274
273
275
1 362
278
273
274
2«1
278
1 231
276
250
246
230
229
973
214
2O3
196
176
162
174
126
132
132
136
595
132
119
123
106
114
523
112
102
102
101
106
508
103
100
104
99
98
455
10S
94
89
64
83
379
2M
180
88
44
17
e
2
8 82)
8 2*1
881
«
25J
I 29.!
FtmM
15 WO
1 357
268
266
266
261
272
1 145
275
270
278
262
200
1 275
266
249
250
249
262
1 366
275
282
271
270
278
1 435
279
261
286
291
296
1 4M
298
296
299
287
302
1 381
303
261
277
261
259
1 145
246
241
233
210
213
208
155
161
156
164
729
158
1S1
151
1X
138
646
139
126
127
122
129
607
127
121
124
117
118
557
128
114
109
105
103
491
381
265
157
91
41
15
4
11 401
10 644
1 46!
151
1 26!
tl 311
CX
ToM
7 67t
760
151
146
151
153
893
151
143
136
129
131
649
129
126
-129
132
133
555
135
133
129
128
130
671
-12S
130
134
137
142
741
146
146
150
146
153
773
161
157
155
156
144
66S
138
140
134
126
126
125
102
10
M
U
39
M
52
e
72
7
320
7
as
63
6
60
27:
t
t
I
23
£
192
139
10
!
5 08
5 37
52
26
1 X
tarm*
U*M
1 666
385
77
~7l
76
77
348
76
72
70
65
86
332
«6
64
«
7
88
342
89
70
68
87
69
3501
«
69
70
70
73
369
74
T2
74
72
78
379
75
77
77
76
70
318
«7
67
«4
60
0
HI
,59
46
48
45
44
193
42
40
39
35
36
151
34
32
M
28
27
120
26
24
24
23
22
106
22
21
21
20
20
86
82
45
22
1C
(
2 731
2 583
228
14
274
294
r !
4 006
375
74
75
77
344
75
72
88
M
65
317
63
62
-63
M
64
313
65
84
82
61
61
321
81
61
64
67
«9
373
72
73
78
74
78
393
82
60
78
79
73
347
72
73
70
66
86
777
86
54
54
51
49
204
46
43
41
37
36
170
37
34
33
33
33
153
32
31
31
X
X
134
X
27
27
25
25
108
77
55
30
15
S
2
C
2 606
2 7U
299
23
29J
31 J
»«
ToM
19 203
2 072
441
428
410
387
1 601
382
382
177
176
174
1 77»
366
362
»S4
346
341
1 6M
339
337
336
336
144
1 M7
356
371
390
408
420
2 080
425
424
419
411
400
1 760
386
368
3S2
335
111
1 378
303
288
275
262
246
1 040
236
22
207
1M
163
80
174
167
18
155
150
677
14
140
135
13
127
588
12
122
120
11
11
486
11
105
100
95
86
390
250
182
11
!
11 11
12 44
673
78
2SJ
27
Ml**
t 661
1 OM
224
218
206
202
671
200
185
181
182
181
906
186
1M
HI
177
175
883
173
172
' 171
172
178
1 016
163
183
204
214
222
1 102
225
225
223
216
212
915
203
193
163
173
163
82
154
146
138
131
123
MM
115
106
101
95
89
390
M
8
78
7
72
323
68
87
M
6
26
5
56
56
53
232
4
t
15
1(
SM
21
41
29
27
1
Tmatt
6 642
1 016
216
^210
201
1M
1(4
31
182
1(7
185
1M
163
871
16'
17/
W4-
171
188
830
166
166
165
166
188
931
173
180
167
181
198
978
2OO
199
197
193
188
645
183
178
166
162
1S6
888
14*
143
137
132
128
S32
116
111
108
100
M
418
0
86
83
61
78
153
75
73
70
66
67
316
65
M
63
62
61
247
5*
56
53
51
46
181
14*
109
68
S3
12
4
1
6 *57
6227
667
50
26A
26.7
-------
APPENDIX B
1987 MOBILITY DATA
B-1
-------
21
Tab* 6. Oanarat Mobttty. by Sax and Stagto Vaacao* Aga
(iratiLiTT DATA not IAICI i9ii TO HAtci 1917. mmtss i« noouun*. rot ntAjri*c or traou. IU nzt)
unino iT»rt«
ion tens
TOTAL. 1 TEA* OU AXO 0»tt . . .
1 TIAt
1 TtAtS
* 5 TIAtS
6 YCA1S
1 TTAIS
15 TIAtS
It TtAtS
17 TtAtS
21 TtAtS
22 TEAtS
26 TtAtS
27 TtAtS . . .
21 TtAtS .
14 THIS
13 TtAtS . .
St TtAtS
40 TtAtS
41 TtAtS . . . . ....
44 TtAtS
45 TtAtS
41 TtAtS .
52 TUtS . . ~.
}1 TtAtS
3* TtAtS
61 TtAtS
t
65 TtAtS
«
70 TtAtS
71 TIAIS
72 TtAtS
74 YMF.5 .... ...
73 THIS OLD AND OVtl
TOTAl
715 01*
1 tO*
3 5IC
3 310
3 ttl
3 635
3 317
3 571
3 !«
3 It*
3 367
3 244
3 244
3 2ie
3 165
3 39!
3 773
3 713
3 646
... --3 459
3 700
3 611
915
024
Otl
167
501
431
170
161
451
21t
143
117
000
121
ttl
711
611
3 773
1 626
: ii6
2 900
2 141
2 792
2 609
2 312
2 417
2 133
2 223
2 300
2 1*1
2 244
1 »*7
2 114
2 142
2 231
2 191
2 231
2 214
2 111
2 023
2 227
: 112
2 017
2 243
2 070
1 916
1 771
1 616
1 715
1 351
1 543
1 17?
1 33t
10 743
IAKI
lOOtt
(«0«-
loms)
191 l»t
2 4tl
2 311
2 617
2 107
2 11*
2 131
2 135
2 715
2 743
2 765
2 662
2 703
2 731
2 14}
3 012
1 264
3 171
2 939
2 361
: 6io
2 176
2 497
2 439
2 317
2 779
: 936
: 9«o
2 927
2 921
1 227
1 227
3 151
3 314
3 153
3 041
3 OOt
2 914
2 946
3 137
3 097
2 423
2 440
2 443
2 409
2 295
2 223
2 257
2 096
1 914
2 004
1 96f
2 0*1
1 109
1 944
1 949
2 010
2 Oil
2 001
2 091
2 224
1 If!
2 051
1 941
1 116
2 071
1 »45
1 711
1 661
1 591
1 614
1 461
1 449
1 316
1 301
10 206
Dirrnm uacu m TIT anno CTATM
294
227
1*4
114
1M
117
174
131
215
113
137
136
173
135
145
161
124
126
99
95
72
11
92
59
JC
326
IAN(
cooun
27 1*6
721
67*
6*0
3*1
336
514
414
421
401
402
196
344
344
327
331
307
339
420
SS6
693
772
163
943
924
935
990
915
771
Ot
737
610
ttl
331
337
41*
171
4*7
119
It!
10!
101
12*
214
224
19*
173
121
14*
140
161
111
101
122
19
121
11
92
111
104
14
76
19
75
101
91
10
63
62
66
<9
34
33
29
22
311
DXfTTWTT COQHTT
TOTAL
15 355
112
2*6
10!
244
265
22f
222
202
207
nr
174
170
121
111
207
112
170
254
319
379
«33
S44
603
361
601
513
'99
431
419
421
331
310
111
216
264
m
236
263
25*
2W
1«7
127
143
152
109
101
99
16
90
133
116
17
61
76
64
93
59
97
12
73
60
14
10
44
70
43
61
37
29
23
29
17
30
:>
301
SAJ-I
ITATt
1 712
2*1
171
its
141
131
124
132
lit
124
TO!
120
90
tl
It
102
92
92
147
. m
223
249
321
331
330
3t3
291
296
243
231
257
19!
174
195
141
132
152
'13*
130
141
111
90
64
12
71
31
62
:o
46
5!
10
61
42
It
42
21
37
31
51
49
17
31
30
44
2*
44
23
30
21
10
12
17
23
14
13
154
Dirmnrr ITATT
TOTAL
» 3*1
142
123
11*
10!
107
102
*0
It
11
-rr
5*
10
to
96
105
90
71
107
. 141
156
IS*
220
251
211
244
224
204
167
161
111
145
lit
12!
Ill
112
114
97
11*
lot
106
57
6!
64
71
SO
46
49
40
11
5!
41
4*
25
34
36
St
21
43
11
It
29
34
33
14
26
19
31
17
11
11
12
14
It
14
ft?
COMTIC*
utxn
1 942
31
41
It
24
30
30
31
26
31
- IB-
ID
20
1
2!
32
23
24
27
32
37
71
63
69
76
79
76
61
43
33
37
41
35
33
29
33
26
24
31
_!l
14
23
14
1
24
17
17
24
16
14
23
21
13
3
15
12
13
9
16
1
3
7
6
14
6
13
5
12
3
9
15
NONCM*
TICWO*
4 131
no
13
103
79
77
71
39
60
30
-11
44
60
32
73
7!
67
54
10
96
119
113
156
112
162
166
147
131
14*
111
141
97
100
II
II
79
19
73
13
tl
72
34
50
53
54
33
30
23
24
24
29
27
30
20
19
24
41
12
27
23
31
23
21
22
1
13
14
19
12
10
9
10
11
14
10
70
HCVRt
rto«
Alt DAD
1 142
3*
12
20
11
13
10
17
11
11
12
10
27
15
14
19
20
34
34
2!
19
49
10
11
31
44
40
37
42
19
47
12
14
It
22
11
It
21
15
21
9
11
3
It
7
7
5
2
2
9
2
1
2
1
1 J
-------
22
Tabto fc GMMrai MofcMly. by Stt and SlngU torn
OAIA rton utct I9i» re HAtci 1917. n»m » nooMro. n« «AH«C or inaou. lit ran
_^ r^r"~~T^
unina
tun
nun
(HOK-
PCDTOI)
ciirnurr mist w Tit PUTP WATM
TOTAL
un
ctxwn
DiFTOOrf
TOTAL
SAM
ITATt
01fT*tWT STATT
COKTIC-
uous
T1CWW
NOTtM
no*
ACIOAD
HAL!
TOTAL. 1 TIAt OLD A«» 09t* ... 11J 14P
1 TtAt 1 »
1 TIAIS 1
1 TIAtS } J"
4 TtAIS 1 '*
7 mis", i;'.:i;'.'.'.''.'. ' ' ' \ j ;>«
i TIAIS : 1,1
9 TIAtS | 1 '*«
10 TtAtS .. . - - ^
11 TtAIS . .
12 mis } **J
13 TtAIS } "*
14 TtAtS 1 '«
J5 TIAtS 1 *«
It TtAIS 1 «
17 TtAtS j »»
19 TIAtS 1 6*;
20 TtAts j »j;
21 T141S 1 *«
22 TIAIS 1
23 TtAtS
24 TtAtS
26 TtAtS ". 1
17 YtAiS 2 >»'
21 TtAtS
29 Tt»tS 2 °2*
30 TtAtS J 2IS
31 TtAIS r *
32 TIAtS I "*
31 TtAtS ' "J
34 TtAil 1 *»'
35 TIAtS J *
Jt TtAIS 1 '*'
37 TtAtS } III
31 TtAtS { "»
39 TIAtS ' ^l
1 ItAiS '.'.'.'.'.'.' 1 «*
2 TIAIS ' «
3 TtAtS } J*J
4 YC&AS .....* l 3*
j jjj;i :::::::::: I III
iH::::::::::::::: -"
9 TtAtS l OJ1
50 TtAIS }»*
51 TtAtS } J"
52 TtAIS ' ' JJ»
SI Tt«S »»t
54 TtAIS 1 021
55 TtAIS } J-J5
56 TtAtS ! 29i
57 TtAIS } J*'
51 TIAIS j "*
59 TtAIS l l"
60 TtAIS l 1??
61 TtAtS '
62 TtAtS ' JJ*
63 TtAtS "I
44 TIAIS '*'
65 TIAtS > "'
tt TtAtS *
67 TIA&S "
61 TtAtS ';
49 TtAIS 7J
70 TtAtS »
71 TtAtS l\.
72 TIAtS *"
71 TtAtS
74 TtAtS **4
3-.t »NS 3V£t
1 417
1 411
1 376
1 396
1 392
1 tlO
1 59)
1 55*
1 191
1 563
1 410
1 4J1
1 421
1 419
1 529
1 101
1 111
1 241
1 164
1 114
U >9»
191
- - 149
lit
100
261
2«5
254
191
191
191
171
165
110
177
170
161
110
260
290
111
397
402
401
292
351
241
27t
241
U3
J23
214
114
159
179
151
111
114
119
94
71
77
37
14
tl
41
SO
4}
49
33
30
52
tl
43
34
s:
3
5:
4
4
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
7 441
17»
111
141
lit
119
126
124
9*
90
II
19
70
9t
91
19
76
115
131
116
115
247
271
316
301
26(
250
234
211
til
114
131
161
142
150
lit
13}
114
15*
119
1
77
72
90
57
«0
41
43
62
60
43
24
39
21
19
23
47
24
16
3(
3«
34
29
1C
13
41
11
It
I
11
11
10
7
70
4 111
111
71
7!
72
79
74
74
59
31
- 41
5»
41
12
41
44
49
15
59
69
II
97
151
161
110
202
163
141
129
126
136
101
II
104
4
14
73
14
91
96
59
43
39
42
31
35
19
II
21
31
29
22
It
21
7
17
10
21
11
12
IB
19
;o
21
i
19
I
7
3
7
6
1
3
36
61
67
75
47
60
52
50
17
11
39
22
43
II
53
54
40
40
55
62
SI
92
117
117
103
101
105
92
95
79
77
64
5«
66
6!
51
63
59
60
J6
31
30
46
24
25
29
16
16
2»
31
22
I
11
14
22
13
19
10
24
21
21
14
9tl
9
10
27
1CI
IS
20
12
17
ir
s
i«
*
14
II
12
10
17
17
15
30
26
32
43
17
17
24
17
12
24
16
9
15
23
21
9
13
4
13
I
11
12
6
1
4
2 147
12
17
41
17
43
17
10 I
26
17
22
II
14
14
17
It
29
10
II
41
S3
31
tt
IS
91
71
69
69
74
60
71
62
51
47
47
42
47
41
49
31
40
21
25
26
14
It
14
17
10
12
II
IS
14
t
t
11
14
6
11
7
24
IS
II
441
11
11
7
4
12
4
1
4
13
11
11
11
It
2t
12
I
35
20
24
21
20
21
24
24
9
14
It
7
I
12
21
12
17
t
U
1
5
11
3
1
1
2
5
2
4
2
t
1
10
-------
23
Tabto S. 0«Mral McbiUty. by 8m and Slngto V«m <
<«3»uin Mti riM Mtet iti* TO MM IMI. tartat t*
anno mm
UM
ton*
{mm-
oratj.
Dimmr trutt if m Bums mm e«owt»»
TOTAL
Olf PfUVT GUUM1I
TOTAL
IAKI
ITATI
DlFTffUVT ITATI
TOTAL
comc-
oocs
TICDntn
Monti
men
TOTAL. 1 TU1 OU> ADD OTDt ... 120 *SO
1 TIAt .............* 1 7*0
Z T1AM 1 JJ«
TUU I '**
run i 7ii
TUU 1 777
SHI:::::::::::::::: i &
TUU I »J«
TUU I »*«
10 TIAU 1 MB l
11 TIAH 1 JJJ
II TtAU 1 JJZ
13 TUU 1 JJZ
14 TUU 1 **«
13 TIAU 1 751
1* TUU j 1*7
!i witi ! I ! ! 1 ! 1 1 1 I I I ! ! ! i 101
1* TUU 1 77)
20 TUU 1 17*
21 TUU 1 110
22 TUU 1*»
2) TtAU 2 Oil
24 TUU Z 040
23 TUU 2 111
I* TUU I »*
27 TUU 2 )07
21 TUU 2 0*3
2* TUU Z 1)»
X> TIAU . -. 2 It*
31 TUU 2 132
32 TUU Z OJ1
3) TUU 2 17*
M TUU Z 007
IS TIAU 1 »Z7
J* TUIS J JJJ
37 TUIS 1 »ZO
34 TIAU 1 71*
n TUU 1 BM
40 TIAU 1 >*
41 TIAU 1 309
»J TUU I »Z7
41 TUIS J JJJ
44 TUU 1 *2I
43 TUU » J«
44 TUU IJIO
47 TUU 1 ZS*
44 TUU ID*
4t TUU . . . 1 173
30 TIAU .. 1 113
31 TUU ' t 1ZZ
32 TUU I 17)
33 TUU ......« 1 0*3
14 THAU 1 01*
33 TtAU 1 "Z
1* TUU 1 Z3)
57 TUU 1 }J5
51 TtAU 1 171
3* TIAU 1 1*Z
*0 TtAU 1 Z74
tl TUU 1 JJJ
*2 TIAU 1 1»J
. *3 TUU 1 1*5
* 44 TtAU 1 OM
43 TIAU I 1*2
»* TUU J 1Z3
*7 TUU 1 B)Z
*4 TUU JJJ
** TUU *37
70 TtAU 'IS
71 TUU »7
72 TUU 117
71 TUII »*l
74 TtAU 7*4
73 TttlS Otl> "0 Ofll * 773
ft n*
i zot
1 ZJ4
1 J«>
1 J3»
1 M*
1 3H
1 413
1 1»S
1 30*
1 347
i m
1 411
1 47*
1 *OI
1 334
1 413
1 271
1 23*
1 15*
1 201
1 20*
1 272
1 3*3
1 473
1 *02
1 531
1 32*
1 »17
1 5*7
1 72)
1 3*2
1 3*1
1 377
1 3*3
1 «*4
1 Ml
1 3*2
1 31*
1 1*«
1 212
1 233
1 24*
1 17*
1 121
1 042
1 03*
1 0)7
1 Olt
1 M3
*)1
I 003
1 00*
1 147
1 0)3
1 033
1 061
1 1*4
1 0(1
1 07*
1 07*
1 022
1 0*3
1 0)1
M3
»!7
136
714
131
110
72*
t 417
21 JIB
32*
AM
431
417
401
34*
321
134
33B
212
2*4
232
237
231
21*
233
270
37*
414
*27
710
7*4
1*7
733
77*.
730
tit
547
3*1
331
4t2
4*4
44 J
403
333
317
343
21)
27*
241
1*0
221
II*
171
132
130
101
11)
13B
141
10*
10*
10*
II
*«
102
71
n*
*i
*3
*4
31
31
43
32
34
31
33
334
1J T*T
17Z
3)0
SO)
2*1
27}
24*
2)0
130
21)
II*
201
171
17*
141
141
1)7
17*
240
2**
40)
4*1
4*1
342
301
302
437
330
J4t
321
313
2*3
211
241
II*
224
174
17*
144
124
171
11*
110
10
II
31
72
I)
77
41
*4
72
34
41
4)
t»
41
41
41
3*
37
4*
32
35
44
34
31
31
33
27
II
13
217
7 71»
20*
1J»
133
12*
12*
100
*l
10*
117
*«
*)
II
37
I)
10*
*3
*4
1)*
lit
22)
241
2**
)23
252
)0t
247
230
1*7
201
1*0
13*
132
130
12)
11*
- 1)1
121
10*
100
*7
.66
30
7)
tl
32
41
31
42
47
71
3*
42
37
31
«3
34
35
30
31
37
22
44
4*
14
*0
30
20
24
12
15
II
27
20
21
1)7
4 All
12*
100
»2
t*
7*
11
31
37
«*
34
*1
41
3*
41
51
44
5t
17
102
13*
152
1*1
1*0
151
161
12*
141
114
12*
102
II
*3
11
*4
tl
7*
75
31
52
52
45
23
3*
2*
23
27
31
II
?3
20
20
17
21
20
27
21
33
23
1)
31
2*
I
1*
17
12
1)
3
7
10
17
12
10
2M
10
3*
t)
57
47
50
40
4*
41
42
31
12
22
42
50
4*
31
32
I*
II
«6
121
1)3
101
143
121
102
13
76
II
**
3*
5*
J*
*IO
22
32
*
14
13
13
11
13
13
13
*
t
3
7
13
11
14
10
33
2 >04
2*
54
42
12
14
2*
>*
1)
2*
2*
2*
II
)*
37
31
24
42
31
ts
55
»0
»7
70
»5
71
t*
71
53
tl
33
41
41
41
37
42
31
14
32
i
24
2*
21
17
13
I
14
12
12
12
1J
14
1)
13
21
5
15
II
7
I
10
It
2
10
10
5
7
4
t
7
7
10
3* I
301
Z*
I)
7
2
t
I
II
7
11
11
14
10
13
13
2*
It
13
II
11
13
1*
I
*
10
10
4
11
7
-------
APPENDIX C
1987 MORTALITY DATA
C-1
-------
T10W 6 - UFE TABLES - PAGE 10
T-bJ.6-2. Nu«*«o
-------
SECTION 1 - GENERAL MORTALITY - PAGE 9
Table 1-5. Deaths at Ages 85 Years and O/er, bj> Single Years of Age. Race, and Sex: United States. 1987
-
02 yMfi
106 ₯/
125 y««f» «nd o*ti -
AlCKM
Bom MM*
439,248
50.948
51.531
47.951
42.139
39.361
36.190
93.324
29.083
24.451
20,983
16.700
13.081
10.201
7,535
5.237
3.589
2.471
1.754
1.122
661
371
236
156
67
34
34
26
14
7
5
4
6
4
1
2
Ml)*
145.331
20.796
19.776
17.665
14.696
13.246
11.794
10.231
6.632
6.961
5671
4.467
3.295
2.460
1.762
1,194
76*
531
371
222
126
62
4*
4*
10
6
11
2
3
3
2
1
3
2
F«mtl*
291.917
30.150
31.753
30.066
27.243
26.115
24.396
23.093
20.431
17.490
15.312
12.213
9.7«*
7.741
6.773
4.043
2,600
1.940
t.363
900
540
309
169
110
57
28
23
24
11
4
3
3
3
2
1
2
Ml*
133.264
19.072
17.915
16.164
13.669
12266
10.942
9.455
7.964
6.444
6239
4.141
3,040
2214
1.610
1.058
700
440
310
162
95
43
33
26
5
2
1
2
1
273.366
27.655
26,998
27,844
25.550
24.566
22.661
21.746
19.193
16.478
14.417
11,430
9.135
7.150
1.342
3.721
2.580
1,732
1.220
775
442
23*
151
76
40
19
11
11
2
2
1
Totil
Mix
12.047
1.726
1.663
1.721
1.027
960
852
77*
64*
517
432
348
255
24*
152
13*
«
91
61
40
33
1*
16
16
1
1
1
1
3
1
3
2
F~*.
20.549
2.295
2.757
2.422
1.693
1.547
1.535
1,347
1.238
1.014
695
763
631
591
431
31*
240
201
183
125
96
71
38
34
17
t
12
13
1
2
3
3
1
1
1
2
BUc*
U*.
10.506
1.47*
1.609
1.49*
61
639
756
66«
568
443
384
308
230
211
131
115
79,
(3
56
36
27
16
14
t«
1
1
9
1
1
2
2
3
I
Nml.
18,718
tM»
t5«
LtM
14M
l.»*1
1JM
1.112
to*
80*
711
M6
M8
3*8
no
XS2
m
Ml
117
§4
8
M
S3
tl
10
11
1
I
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse be/ore completing/
1. REPORT NO.
EPA-450/3-92-01
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
A Monte Carlo Approach to Simulating Residential
Occupancy Periods and Its Application to the General
U.S. Population
7. AUTHOR(S)
REPORT DATE
August 1992
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
. Ted Johnson and Jim Capel
hrl-ERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
International Technology Air Quality Services
South Square Corporate Centre One
3710 University Drive, Suite 201
Durham, NC 27707
11 CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
68-DO-0119
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
US Environmental Protection Agency
OAQPS/ESD/PAB/MD-13
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
13. TYPE OF F
Final
ND
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
This document describes the methodology for estimating the nationwide
distribution of residential duration (i.e., years spent living in a single residence),
The methodology uses a Monte Carlo approach to simulate a distribution of residential
occupancy periods using available data on mobility and mortality for specific
population age and gender groups. This report also provides the residential
duration estimates and discusses the assumptions and possible biases of the
methodology.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
Exposure Assessment
i Exposure Duration
Monte Carlo Simulation
Residential Occupancy Periods
|18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release Unlimited
c. COSATI Field/Group
19. SECURITY CLASS I This Report]
Unclassified
20. SECURITY CLASS (Tliis pagei
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77) PREVIOUS EDITION is OBSOLETE
------- |