EPA-450/4-74-001
(OAQPS No. 1.2-016 Revised)
GUIDELINES FOR AIR QUALITY
MAINTENANCE PLANNING AND ANALYSIS
VOLUME 1:
DESIGNATION OF AIR QUALITY
MAINTENANCE AREAS
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of A1r Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, N. C. 27711
September 1974
-------
OAQPS GUIDELINE SERIES
The guideline series of reports is being issued by the Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards (OAQPS) to provide information to state and local
air pollution control agencies; for example, to provide guidance on the
acquisition and processing of air qualit> data and on the planning and
analysis requisite for the maintenance of air quality. Reports published in
this series will be. available - as supplies permit - from the Air Pollution
Technical Information Center, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
27711; or, for a nominal fee, from the National Technical Information Ser-
vice, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22151.
Publication No. EPA-450/4-74-001
(OAQPS No. 1.2-016 Revised)
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
11
-------
FOREWORD
This document is the first in a series comprising Guidelines for Air
Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis. The intent of the series is to
provide State and local rqencies with information and guidance for the prepa-
ration of Air Quality Maintenance Plans required under 40 CFR 51. The volumes
in this series are:
Volume 1^ Designation of Air Quality Maintenance Areas
Volume 2: 'Plan Preparation
Volume 3: Control Strategies
Volume 4j Land Use and Transportation Consideration
Volume 5: Case Studies irTPlan Development
Volume 6: Overview of Air Quality Maintenance Area Analysis
Volume 1: Projecting County Emissions
Volume 8: Computer-Assisted Area Source Emissions Gridding
Procedure
Volume 9j_ Evaluating Indirect Sources
Volume 10: Reviewing New Stationary Sources
Volume l_h Air Quality Monitoring and Data Analysis
Volume 12: Applying Atmospheric Simulation Models to Air Quality
Maintenance Areas
Additional volumes may be issued.
All references to 40 CFR Part 51 in this document are to the regulations
as amended through July 1974.
111
-------
Preface
This document was originally published on January 11, 1974, by the
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards as OAQPS No. 1.2-016.
Copies were distributed on January 15 to all Regional Offices and State
Air Pollution Control Agencies. On January 23, 1974, errata were sent
out for pages 5-8, B-10, B-ll, C-5 and C-6. Copies of the guideline, in-
cluding errata, were then distributed on February 8-15 to State A-95
Clearinghouses and those local air pollution control agencies and metro-
politan and regional planning agencies which are located in SMSAs (S.tandard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas) with population over 500,000.
Revisions to Sections 3 and 5 and Appendices A and B were distributed
to all recipients of the guidelines on February 14, 1974.
All errata and revisions have been incorporated into this final
edition of the guideline.
IV
-------
CONTENTS
PAGE
List of Figures Vl11
List of Tables 1x
1. INTRODUCTION i
1.1 BACKGROUND !
1.2 EPA DESIGNATION OF AQMAs 3
1.3 FUTURE GUIDELINES 5
1.3.1 Guidelines for AQMA Analysis 5
1.3.2 Guidelines for Development of Air Quality Malnte- K
nance Plan
2. GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS AND DISCUSSION 9
2.1 CONSIDERATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS 10
2.2 CONSIDERATION OF OTHER FACTORS 14
2.3 AQMA BOUNDARY CHANGES 16
2.4 WITHDRAWAL OF AQMA DESIGNATION 16
2.5 METROPOLITAN AREAS AND SPARSELY URBANIZED AREAS 16
2.6 ASSUMPTIONS CONCERNING FUEL AVAILABILITY 17
2.7 ASSUMPTIONS CONCERNING EMISSION AND AIR QUALITY BASELINES 17
2.8 CONSIDERATION OF AIR QUALITY STANDARDS 19
2.9 PROJECTION REQUIREMENTS 19
2.10 SUPPORTING INFORMATION 20
2.11 PROCEDURAL REQUIREMENTS 21
-------
PAGE
3. INITIAL DESIGNATION CRITERIA 23
3.1 ELIMINATION OF OBVIOUS NON-PROBLEM AREAS 23
3.2 INCLUSION OF OBVIOUS PROBLEM AREAS 24
4. METHODS FOR PROJECTING EMISSIONS 29
4.1 PROJECTING 1975 EMISSIONS 32
4.1.1 Preferred Method 32
4.1.2 Back-up Method 33
4.1.2.1 Step A - Determine 1970 Emissions 34
4.1.2.2 Step B - Determine 1975 Power Plant 34
Emissions
4.1.2.3 Step C - Determine 1975 Emissions from 35
Other Sources
4.1.2.4 Step D - Project Growth Rates for 1970 35
to 1974
4.2 PROJECTING 1985 EMISSIONS 37
5. INSTRUCTIONS FOR MODELING AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS 41
5.1 INTRODUCTION 41
5.2 ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR CARBON MONOXIDE 41
5.3 RELATING OXIDANT CONCENTRATION TO HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS 45
5.4 ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR OTHER POLLUTANTS - RELATING 46
PROJECTED EMISSIONS TO AIR QUALITY
5.4.1 Proportional Roll-Forward Model 46
5.4.2 Miller - Holzworth Model 47
5.4.3 Estimating Short-Term Concentrations for Sulfur 50
Dioxide and Particulates
5.4.3.1 Roll-Forward 50
5.4.3.1 Log-Normal 50
vi
-------
PAGE
5.5 COMPARISON OF PROJECTED AIR QUALITY WITH NAAQS 51
6. PROJECTIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS 55
APPENDIX A. BASIS FOR INITIAL DESIGNATION CRITERIA 75
A.I CARBON MONOXIDE 75
A.2 TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATES 78
A.3 SULFUR OXIDES 78
A.4 PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANTS 80
A.5 NITROGEN DIOXIDE 81
APPENDIX B. EXAMPLES OF ANALYSES FOR A HYPOTHETICAL SMSA EMPLOYING 83
THE "BACK-UP" METHOD OF ESTIMATING EMISSIONS
B.I EXAMPLE 1 - CARBON MONOXIDE 83
B.I.I Conclusion 89
B.2 EXAMPLE 2 - SULFUR DIOXIDE 89
B.2.1 Conclusion 94
B.3 EXAMPLE 3 - HYDROCARBONS AND PHOTOCHEMICAL 95
OXIDANTS
B.3.1 Conclusion 96
APPENDIX C. LIST OF TASKS TO BE PERFORMED FOR MAINTENANCE OF 97
STANDARDS PROGRAM
C.I SUBMIT AREAS DESIGNATED AS AQMAs 97
C.2 ANALYZE EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY - 1975 97
to 1985
C.3 DEVELOP AND SUBMIT A 10-YEAR PLAN FOR AIR 99
QUALITY MAINTENANCE
VII
-------
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure No. Title Page
2-1 FLOW CHART FOR AQMA DESIGNATIONS 9
3~1 EXCLUSION CRITERIA FOR CARBON MONOXIDE 25
AS A FUNCTION OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF
EMISSIONS BETWEEN LIGHT AND HEAVY-DUTY
VEHICLES ON LOCAL STREETS
CALCULATION OF 1975 AND 1985 EMISSIONS
31
vm
-------
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Title Page
1-1 MAINTENANCE OF AIR QUALITY STANDARDS ACTIVITY 8
SCHEDULE
2-1 NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS 19
2-2 EXAMPLE SUMMARY OF AQMA DESIGNATIONS 20
3-1 AQCRs IN WHICH TRANSPORTATION CONTROL 27
STRATEGIES ARE REQUIRED
4-1 EMISSION PROJECTION CALCULATIONS 30
4-2 EMISSION REDUCTION FACTORS 36
5-1 EMISSION FACTOR RATIOS 44
5-2 RATIO OF EXPECTED ANNUAL MAXIMUM POLLUTANT 52
CONCENTRATION TO ARITHMETIC MEAN CONCENTRATION
FOR VARIOUS AVERAGING TIMES AND STANDARD GEOMETRIC
DEVIATIONS
6-1 POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT, PERSONAL INCOME, AND EARNINGS 56
BY INDUSTRY, HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED.
6-2 SMSAs LISTED ALPHABETICALLY BY STATE 58
6-3 COUNTY COMPOSITION OF SMSAs LISTED IN BEA CODE 63
NUMBER ORDER
A-l SOLUTIONS TO EQUATION 79
B-l 1970 EMISSIONS OF CARBON MONOXIDE FOR HYPOTHETICAL 85
SMSA
B-2 EMISSION PROJECTION CALCULATION TABLE 86
(CARBON MONOXIDE)
B-3 1970 EMISSIONS OF SULFUR DIOXIDE FOR 90
HYPOTHETICAL SMSA
B-4 EMISSION PROJECTION CALCULATION TABLE 92
(SULFUR DIOXIDE)
-------
DESIGNATION OF AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREAS
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
Pursuant to 40 CFR 51 12(e), published on June 18, 1973 in
the Federal Register. Volume 38, p. 15834, all State Implementation
Plans (SIPs) ". . . shall identify those areas (counties, urbanized
areas, standard metropolitan statistical areas, etc.) which,
due to current air quality and/or projected qrowth rate, may have
the potential for exceeding any National Ambient Air Quality
Standard (NAAQS) within the subsequent 10-year period." After
areas are identified by the states, EPA will review these desig-
nations and will prepare an official list of areas by November 1974.
The states must then perform a thorough air quality analysis of
each of these areas; if this analysis shows that an area definitely
will not maintain a NAAQS during the 10-year period, a plan must
be developed for that area which demonstrates that the standard
will be maintained.
As stated in the preamble to the above-cited laws, EPA intends
to provide assistance to the states in (1) identifying the areas
(i.e. Air Quality Maintenance Areas - AQMAs) that may exceed a
national standard within the next 10 years, and (2) analyzing
the impact of qrowth and development on air quality in such
problem areas.
-------
These present guidelines are to assist the states in identify-
ing AQMAs and do not require as extensive an analysis as do the guide-
lines for analyzing the impact of growth, issued in the summer of 1974;
guidelines for preparation of plans for maintenance of air quality will
be issued in late summer of 1974. The overall timetable for plan
development with regard to 40 CFR 51.12, paragraphs (e) through (h) is:
1. May 10, 1974 - State submission of identification of AQMAs.
2. November 1974 - EPA publication of list of AQMAs.
3. June 18, 1975 - State submission of:
a. Impact on air quality of projected growth in AQMAs.
b. Where needed, a plan to prevent any National Ambient.
Air Quality Standards from being exceeded over the
10-year period from the date of plan submittal.
A detailed timetable of state and EPA activity over the next 2 years
for the maintenance of standards program 1s presented 1n Table 1-1.
EPA Intends that the guidelines be easy to follow yet still be
sufficiently responsive to ensure that as many appropriate AQMAs as
possible are designated without over-designation. Because of the
complex nature of the tasks involved and because of the many uncertain-
ties inherent in the projection of emissions and air quality, the
guidelines are written to obtain some degree of consistency in the
information to be submitted by the states while still allowing for
innovative approaches.
Prior to preparation of these guidelines, EPA consulted with several
state and local air pollution control agencies and regional planning com-
-------
missions. EPA has attempted to Incorporate the advice thus obtained In
these guidelines. Although every attempt has been made to anticipate and
address questions that may arise, Invariably unresolved Issues will occur.
When questions do arise, It 1s recommended that the appropriate EPA
Regional Office be contacted for guidance.
The guidelines for AQMA designation are written for the state agency
responsible for designation. In most cases this will be the state air
pollution control agency. Because the Impact of the provisions for main-
tenance of standards will affect areas that are of concern to other
state agencies and local general purpose governments (such as those
responsible for regional land use and transportation planning, water
pollution control, etc.), 1t 1s advisable for the designating agency
to solicit comments from these agencies and Involve them 1n the desig-
nation process.
1.2 EPA DESIGNATION OF AQMAs
As Indicated above, EPA will review the 11st of designated AQMAs
submitted by the states and will publish, after allowing for public
comment, an official 11st of AQMAs by November 1974. Because of time
and manpower constraints, EPA will not be able to analyze 1n detail
areas of those states which do not submit any material concerning AQMA
designations. Consequently, EPA's designation for states that do not
offer a submission will be on the basis of Standard Metropolitan Sta-
tistical Areas (SMSAs) whose growth rates for particular demographic-
economic Indicators, exceed a specified value. In addition, the
-------
present value of the indicator, current air quality, and the meteoro-
logical conditions that present a pollution potential would be incorporated
in EPA's criteria for AQMA designation. In most cases, actual emissions
of air quality per se would not be projected by EPA. The critical growth
rates would be determined as follows:
1. Percentage growth rates for population and earnings by in-
dustrial category have been obtained on an SMSA basis for
the years 1975 to 1985.
2. SMSAs have been listed by regional priority classification for
each pollutant and ranked by percentage growth rate for popula-
tion and earnings by industrial category.
3. Using best judgment, demographic-economic indicators would
be selected as representative of each pollutant-source
category combination.
4. After scrutiny of the spread of growth rates, critical growth
rates would be selected using best judgment for each demographic-
economic indicator corresponding to a pollutant-source category
combination.
The critical growth rates per demographic-economic indicator would
vary depending on the pollutant priority classification of the AQCR in
which the SMSA is located. Thus, a lower critical growth rate would
be specified for those areas having a currently significant air quality
problem (Priority I regions) than for those areas not having a currently
significant air quality problem (Priority III regions).
-------
1.3 FUTURE GUIDELINES
In addition to these guidelines on AQMA designation, EPA will
publish other guidelines concerning the detailed analysis and pro-
jection of air quality for the AQMAs and the development of a plan
for maintenance of NAAQS where needed. These future guidelines are
briefly discussed below.
1.3.1 Guidelines for AQMA Analysis
The analysis step is intended to determine whether air quality
limits are indeed threatened and, if so, when, where, and which are
the principal sources involved. The results of this analysis will be
useful in determining whether an SIP revision is necessary and
in formulating alternative plans if they are needed.
Descriptive analysis would proceed along the general lines
described below concerning analytical procedures for selecting
AQMAs, although the analysis would be more thorough. In particular,
the following steps would be followed.
1. The quantity of emissions of each pollutant for which
the AQPA is designated would be projected to 1985. This
projection would consider:
a. Present emissions by source category and, if possible,
by location.
b. Expected growth of each source category based on past
trends and highly probable future contingencies.
c. Present and highly probable future emission restrictions
of new and existing sources.
-------
2. The 1985 projected emission inventory would be allocated to
the area in the least desirable* pattern that would be permit-
ted under present land-use restrictions. This "scenario"
is the one that would result in the most centralized locations
of new sources of emissions. Present zoning patterns and land-
use plans would be used in allocating new sources to the area.
3. Air quality for 1985 would be estimated from the emission-pattern
scenario, preferably usina a calibrated diffusion model. If
this is impossible in the time available, a less sophisticated
model must be used.
The models, emission factors, growth projection techniques, etc.
suitable for performing the analysis will be forthcoming in the latter
part of 1974.
1'3'2 Guidelines for Development of Air Quality Maintenance Plans
In late spring or summer of 1974, EPA will issue guidelines to
the states on the preparation and submittal of 10-year air quality main-
tenance plans. These plans, which will be due on June 18, 1975, will
pertain only to portions of states designated as AQMAs by the Admini-
strator in November 1974. The guidelines will be organized around four
subject areas. The first subject area relates to the mechanics of pre-
paring and implementing the plans. Topics ranging from plan format to
procedures for categorizing emission sources will be covered. The
second subject area deals with the evaluation of the air quality
*Least desirable from an air quality maintenance standpoint.
-------
implications of local land-use and transportation plans. It may be
discovered 1n some AQMAs that growth plans are incompatible with air
quality maintenance and will need to be revised. The third subject area
will include a list of maintenance strategies. Emission allocations,
transportation controls, fuel and energy conservation measures, and other
strategies will be discussed, along with procedures to quantitatively
estimate their impact on air quality. The final subject area will cover
the coordination of air quality maintenance plans with other environ-
mental planning activities such as water quality planning and the review
of environmental Impact statements.
-------
0
—1
1— 1
<
*-*
— 1
CO
0
ni
C
r~
m
"TO
CO
fD
Q.
OJ
3
CL.
00
M
-~» ~u — h m •>
VO — i O T3 C
O 3=« O
3 0 3 -S
r+ 0> 01 01
to fD <<* c-l-
' tO CO
o ->•
"O to o
fD Qi — '•
3 3 Q.
c-t- Q. fD
3
fD
to
1C
-1 Ji
O>
cr
fD
—i ~O B) CO
1 — • 3 rl-
— •> Of Q_ G»
3 rt-
to o fD
fD
3 — -• < O
J» CT> fD O
l-l — J 3
z: 300.
— t o -a c
m 3 co o
5 3- 3 to
:s to a>
0 v_*_i. JB
rn 33
c-t- a>
O fD — i
-n 3 <<
a> co
S. 3 -*•
H-l O CO
50 fD
j— * — * CO * — i
i— i ho ct- 3
—1 OJ ft-
-< 3 r+ n>
CO 33
—1 c-t- 33 a>
5 55"!? -"
§ ro'
30 5E
CO
3 —
O — '
§*-^~\3 TO CO
— • — ' fD c-l-
3 ft! < ft) 1
rt- — i 3 -"• c-t- IO
to PO fD 10 ai
'£ co co BJ m
g. c-t- c-t- 3 "a
3 <"*• c-t-
-^ fD c a pa
•"^ to c-t- fD fb
fD < <
• — ^ "n fD — *•
-C» B) "O — i fD
_-'•—• 0 5
3 — > ai -a to
O -"• 3 CO
3 3 tO -0
C-t-CQ CO — i
to c+ o cr 3
5
H
i
o
c_ EPA Issues AQMA Guidelines for Designating AQMAs
2
3=
s States Submit Areas to be Designated as AQMAs
tPA Begins Revisions of State Designations and Proposed Designations
tor btates hailing to Submit AQI^A Material
t
! EPA Announces Hearings on its Proposed Designation
c, EPA Issues Analysis Guidelines to States
EPA Holds Hearings on its Designations
EPA Issues Plan Development Guidelines to States; Proposes
«/> Reas^on Same in Federal Register; Brief Regional Offices
on Guidelines
EPA Publishes Final Regulations on Plan Development in
""" Federal Register
=• EPA Publishes Final List of AQMAs
a
•^ Draft Plan Completed by States
33 States Announce Hearings; Distribute Plans
2 States Hold Hearings
0 States Submit Plans to EPA
E>A Starts Uork on Plans for States that Fail to Submit
c_, Appro vable Plans
C/)
^ EPA Announces Approval /Disapproval of State Plans
tPA Announces Hearings on Own Plans for States that did not
Submit Approvable Plans
^ EPA Holds Hearings on Own Plans
EPA Promulgates Plans for States that have not Submitted Plans
3
8
-------
2. GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS AND DISCUSSION
The general approach that this guideline presents is depicted in
Figure 2-1; the numbers in parentheses refer to the sections of the guide-
line in which that item is described:
all SMSAs
SMSAs automatically^
excluded as AQMAs
SMSAs excluded
as AQMAs
Apply initial
designation
criteria
(3)
JSMSAs automatically
"included as AQMAs
SMSAs neither automatically
excluded or included
Predict 1985
emissions (4)
1
Predict 1985
air quality (5)
1
Determine if
NAAQSs are
maintained
SMSAs included
"as AQMAs
Figure 2-1. Flow Chart for AQMA designation
-------
2.1 CONSIDERATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS
There appears to be a need to specify which areas, as a minimum,
should be analyzed In determining which areas should be designated
as AQMAs. The areas selected are the SMSAs as defined by the Office
of Management and Budget (formerly the Bureau of the Budget). The
reasons for choosing SMSAs are listed below:
1. SMSAs historically exhibit higher growth rates of population
than non-SMSA areas.
2. SMSAs exhibit the highest concentrations of population and
Industry.
3. Projections of population and economic indicators are avail-
able on an SMSA basis.
4. Areas of SMSAs change with time as population density Increases,
facilitating future changes in the designation of AQMAs.
5. SMSAs account for roughly 70 percent of the nation's population,
but only about 10 percent of the total land areas.
The SMSA, alone or in its entirety, however, may not always be
a desirable geographic area for designation as an AQMA. For instance,
projections of emissions for cities, counties, or townships within the
SMSA may be possible to calculate, in which case it would be desirable
to designate these as sub-SMSA areas. In other cases, the projected growth
in emissions may be expected to occur around the fringe of the SMSA, 1n
which case the designation may be more desirable 1f 1t includes that
fringe area in addition to the SMSA, in whole or in part.
10
-------
Some consideration should be given to the difficulty of the actual
designation and management of control programs within an AQMA, It is
easier to designate by the names of the existing areas (political or
non-political) than to delineate an area by listing roads, rivers,
other topographical features, or latitude-longitude coordinates that
constitute the boundaries of the area. Designation by currently
defined areas, however, does not mean that the subsequent detailed
analysis of the AQMA and possible control strategy must apply to the
entire AQMA as originally designated-the analysis and plan can be
restricted to selected problem areas within the AQMA. On the other
hand, one should be aware that designated areas have been referenced
in the proposed regulations for review of indirect sources in all but
three states (38 F.R. 29893, Federal Register of October 30, 1973).
If the regulation is promulgated as proposed, the size of facilities
that would be exempt from review will be smaller in the designated
areas (AQMAs) than in the non-designated areas. Until EPA publishes
the list of AQMAs in November 1974, all SMSAs would, for purposes of
the proposed indirect source review regulation, be considered designated
areas.
In addition, one should be aware of possible relationships between
the designated AQMAs and the areas to be chosen under the forthcoming
regulations concerning significant deterioration. For instance, if
the significant deterioration regulations provide that some (probably
urban) areas are permitted to deteriorate up to the secondary national
11
-------
ambient air quality standard, these areas will probably be the
same areas as the AQMAs. Therefore, 1t might be appropriate to designate
an area large enough to allow for the proper amount of desired growth.
A non-exhaustive 11st of types of areas that might be used for
designation Include:
1. AQCRs
2. SMSAs
3. Urbanized Areas
4. Counties
5. Groupings of: Cities, Townships, Boroughs
6. Planning regions used for transportation, land use or other
planning
7. Sub-state planning districts
Designations should be pollutant-specific and should Indicate the
pollutants for which the area Is designated. The detailed analysis
required for each of the finally designated AQMAs would then be done
only on the basis of those pollutants that are Identified as problems
1n exceeding air quality standards In the future.
For uniformity and to avoid proliferation of designated AQMAs,
a single boundary for each AQMA should be chosen regardless of the number
of pollutants for which a potential problem exists. Actual pollutant
problems within the area may overlap or be mutually exclusive (e.g.,
one part of an AQMA may experience growth 1n mobile source pollutants,
whereas another part may suffer an Increase in S02 emission from fuel
combustion), but all the problem areas of a particular geographic
12
-------
location should be enclosed in only one AQMA.
In the case of SMSAs that cross state boundaries, the respective
states should coordinate their designations. An SMSA constitutes, by
definition, "...for general economic and social purposes, a single
community...". Therefore, it is recommended that, for an interstate
SMSA, one AQMA be designated jointly by the respective states. It is
highly desirable that one single integrated plan be adopted by all
states involved. If this is not practical, however, then all state
plans in interstate AQMAs should be at least compatible with one
another.
It may be, however, that one state's portion of an SMSA will
experience growth in emissions, while the adjacent state's portion will
not; in this case, it may be desirable for the growth state to designate
an AQMA in (and/or around) its portion of the SMSA, but for the non-
growth state not to designate in its portion. Obviously, one state
cannot designate a part of an AQMA, which is located in another state.
Interstate cooperation will be necessary to resolve any conflicts.
The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Activities
(BEA) has developed projections of demographic and economic activity for
SMSAs. BEA projections were made on the basis of SMSAs as they existed
as of January 7, 1972. Chapter 6 includes the county composition of the
SMSAs as they existed at that time. Since January 7, 1972, several
revisions to the composition of SMSAs have been made, the latest in August
1972. Therefore, the January 7, 1972 SMSAs may have slightly different
13
-------
boundaries than the currently defined SMSAs. The question arises as to
which boundary should be used for AQMA designation. EPA recommends
that the January 7, 1972 SMSAs be analyzed. Those SMSAs which are de-
termined to be problem areas should then be designated as AQMAs on the
basis of the current (1973) SMSA composition. For those SMSAs newly
designated since 1972 and SMSAs in Puerto Rico for which no BEA projections
exist, the states should develop their own basis for projection based on
data from various planning agencies.
2.2 CONSIDERATION OF OTHER FACTORS
In deciding upon the particular boundaries of an AQMA, the fol-
lowing factors should be considered.
1. The AQMA should include all of the territory that shares
common air envelope and a common aggregation of sources. This
will usually be an urbanized area plus some adjoining areas
that are now undeveloped but that are expected to develop in
the next 10 years or so. It may include satellite communities
that are now separated from the central urbanized area but will
in 10 to 20 years, become part of the central urbanized area
and thus share the air resource.
2. Use of areas previously designated by agencies of various kinds
may have merit in that a data base may be available and a
14
-------
proliferation of "regions" can be avoided. Examples are
regional planning areas, state-designated planning areas, trans-
portation planning areas, etc.
3. Emission control and other air conservation measures necessary
to maintain air quality standards 1n the urbanized and developing
parts of-major urban centers may be quite stringent. Application
of such stringent measures 1n Isolated or undeveloped areas may
not be advantageous. Thus, inclusion of large rural areas 1n
an AQMA may not be desirable.
4. Design and Implementation of air conservation measures will
Involve certain governmental agencies. Common boundary lines
for AQMAs and one or some combination of jurisdictlonal areas
of implementing agencies may have merit from an operational
point of view.
5. Long-range transport of pollutants is another matter of concern.
It 1s true that 1f ambient air standards are maintained near
an aggregation of sources, such standards will also usually be
maintained at more distant locations. Therefore, it may not
be necessary to include those areas on the periphery of an
aggregation of sources in order to assure maintenance of
standards at locations distant from the aggregation of sources.
6. The influence of topography and geography on dispersion of
pollutants and on overall community growth patterns should be
considered.
15
-------
7. When designating AQMAs, preparation of detailed air quality pro-
jections and development of any needed abatement strategies will
need to be based on presently available land-use, transportation,
and other plans because of time constraints. It may be, however,
that new general regional development plans will be prepared in
the future because of air quality considerations or other reasons.
The AQMA designation would desirably be compatible with any such
future community planning activity.
2.3 AQMA BOUNDARY CHANGES
The designation of the boundaries of an AQMA in May of 1974 does not
preclude changes in such boundaries at the time that more detailed air
quality analyses and abatement/maintenance plans are submitted in 1975, or
at some other time.
2.4 WITHDRAWAL OF AQMA DESIGNATION
Areas designated in May or November 1974 may be "de-designated" if
subsequent, more detailed analysis indicate that, in fact, the ambient air
quality standards will not be jeopardized, in the coming 10 years. There-
fore, in borderline cases arising in initial abbreviated analyses, it is
appropriate to designate the area and proceed with more detailed analyses.
2.5 METROPOLITAN AREAS AND SPARSELY URBANIZED AREAS
The principal objective of designation of AQMAs and subsequent develop-
ment of plans to maintain ambient air quality standards is to provide a
mechanism for management of general overall urban growth as related to air
quality, with due consideration of other aspects of community growth. New
source review procedures, which involve determination that the new source
will meet emission regulations and_ not cause or contribute to contravention
16
-------
of ambient air quality standards, will be a part of the overall maintenance
plan in urban areas. In lightly urbanized areas and in rural areas, it is
considered that properly administered new source review procedures will be
adequate to assure maintenance of air quality standards and, therefore,
more complex and burdensome i,.iintenance programs will not ordinarily be
needed.
2.6 ASSUMPTIONS CONCERNING FUEL AVAILABILITY
In projecting emissions from fuel-burning sources, certain assumptions
must be made concerning the future availability and use of types of fuel.
The assumptions used must be specified in the material submitted in support
of the designation. These will be considered valid if based upon current
trends and/or projected fuel-use requirements. New facilities that might
change local fuel-use patterns, e.g., refineries, nuclear power plants, oil
pipelines, coal gasification facilities, etc., but that have not already
been committed for completion by 1985, cannot be assumed to have an impact
on fuel availability in the designation process. In addition, the current
fuel shortage cannot be assumed to continue ad infinitum, thus, resulting in
zero growth in emissions from fuel combustion.
2.7 ASSUMPTIONS CONCERNING EMISSION AND AIR QUALITY BASELINES
Emission baseline—In order to estimate emissions between the time
standards are attained and 1985, it is necessary to determine emissions at
the time standards are attained. Some SIPs contain these projections of
emissions, and these can be used when available. If not available, these
attainment date emissions can be calculated by the method presented below,
which is based on concepts developed in the Manual for Analysis of State
Implementation Plan Progress, prepared for EPA by the Research Triangle
17
-------
Institute . Regulations currently in existence should be used to project
emissions. Regulations that are planned, but not yet promulgated, will not
be accepted for such projections in the designation process.
Air quality baseline—Several of the models presented below for use in
predicting air quality require the use of air quality data at the time of
implementation of existing regulations. As with emissions, the SIPs may
contain projections' of air quality at the time of fuel SIP implementation,
and these air quality values can be used. For cases where air quality pro-
jections are not contained in the SIP, it may be assumed that the NAAQS will
be achieved, unless there is reason to believe otherwise. Alternatively,
recent (1972 and 1973) air quality data may be projected to 1975 and hence
to 1985, making proper adjustments for growth and scheduled abatement actions.
Because of the nature of photochemical oxidants, there may be rural areas
that experience high oxidant concentrations caused by hydrocarbons emitted
from either distant man-made sources or natural sources. It is recommended
that these rural areas not be designated as AQMAs in that it would be mean-
ingless to design a control strategy for them since they do not contain
controllable sources of hydrocarbons. In addition, Federal programs are
planned that will eventually reduce hydrocarbon emissions nationwide.
A similar problem exists for areas subject to high concentrations of
total suspended particulate matter caused by uncontrollable fugitive dust
from natural causes. It is recommended that particulate matter measurements
resulting from such fugitive dust not be the basis for projecting air quality
for the purpose of AQMA designation.
Manual for Analysis of State Implementation Plan Progress. Research
Triangle Institute. Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709. Pre-
pared for: Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Environmental
Protection Agency. Contract No. 68-02-0294. March 1974.
18
-------
2.8 CONSIDERATION OF AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
The following national ambient air quality standards shown in Table 2-1
should be considered in designating areas in which standards may be exceeded.
Table 2-1. NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
Pollutant __ Primary _ Secondary
Participate natter (a) 75 yg/m , annual 150 pg/m , second highest
geometric mean 24-hr average per year
(b) 260 yg/n3, second highest
24-hr average per year
— — . _ - _
Sulfur dioxide (a) 80 yg/m , annual arith- 1300 yg/m , second highest
metic mean 24-hr average per year
(b) 365 yg/m3, second highest
24-hr average per year
Carbon monoxide 10 yq/m , second highest 8-hour average per year
Photochemical oxidants 160 yg/m , second highest 1-hour average per year
- - - ,
Nitrogen dioxide 100 ug/m , annual arithmetic average
For carbon monoxide, assume that the 1-hour standard will be maintained
if the 8-hour standard is maintained. As in the original SIPs, a demonstra-
tion of achieving the oxidant standard will imply that the hydrocarbon
standard also has been achieved.
Although states may designate on the basis of air quality standards
more stringent than the national ambient air quality standards, EPA will,
should the occasion ever arise, only act to the extent necessary to ensure
attainment of the national ambient air quality standards.
2.9 PROJECTION REQUIREMENTS
Air quality standards must be maintained throughout the 10 years fol-
lowing submission of the detailed analysis of the AQMAs. Projections of
air quality must, therefore, be made for the year 1985 and for any other
19
-------
years within the 10-year period in which it is believed that concentrations
may temporarily exceed a NAAQS.
2.10 SUPPORTING INFORMATION
For each SMSA within the state that is exempted from designation on
the basis of the initial criteria (pt ->sented below), the submittal must
include the reasons for the exemption.
For each SMSA within the state which is not exempted based on the initial
criteria, a projection of air quality for each pollutant not exempted must
accompany the submittal. Such projections must include all calculations,
except where a computerized model is used. If a computerized model is
employed, the submittal must describe the model used. If the projection
method is not one of the methods recommended by EPA below, the submittal must
describe the method.
A summary table of the designations and rationale similar to that pre-
sented in Table 2-2 should accompany the submittal.
Table 2-2.
Summary of AQMA Designations for State of
Area3
Reason not,
designated
Reason .
designated
Designation for
TSP
so2
CO
°x
N02
aMust include at least all SMSAs within the state.
Reasons would be either "Initial Criteria" or "Actual Projection."
20
-------
2.11 PROCEDURAL REQUIREMENTS
The areas designated by the states and eventually by EPA will have the
force of regulation by virtue of the requirement that (1) for these areas,
a determination must be made of whether NAAQS will be maintained, and (2) a
plan may have to be submitted for maintenance of the standards. Because of
these reasons, designations must be subjected to public hearing prior to
submission to EPA by May 10, 1974. The rationale behind the requirement of
public hearing on AQMA designation is basically that the decision to desig-
nate or not designate areas as AQMAs is of such importance, considering the
economic and developmental implications of such decisions, that the widest
public participation in such decisions should be allowed. In holdi^ such
hearings, the states should consider the rationale upon which decisions were
made to include or exclude all SMSAs, or parts thereof, within their bound-
aries.
The regulations concerning public hearings and submission of plans
(40 CFR 51, Sections 51.4 and 51.5) are applicable with regard to submission
of the designated area.
21
-------
3. INITIAL DESIGNATION CRITERIA
The criteria immediately below were developed to enable the states
to eliminate obvious non-problem areas and include obvious problem areas
without performing an analysis of projected air quality. Any SMSA that is
not either eliminated or automatically included as an AQMA under these cri-
teria is expected to undergo the analysis described in Section 4 of this
document to determine the 1985 emissions. After application of these
initial criteria, any SMSA that is not automatically excluded or included
is expected to undergo a projection of 1985 emissions and air quality by
techniques such as those presented in Sections 4 and 5 of these guidelines.
Bear in mind that in case of a conflict between inclusion and exclusion
criteria, inclusion criteria take precedence.
The technical derivation of these criteria is presented as Appendix A.
3.1 ELIMINATION OF OBVIOUS NON-PROBLEM AREAS
SMSAs that meet the following criteria may be automatically excluded
from consideration as an AQMA for the particular pollutant; supporting in-
formation must substantiate this exclusion.
1. Particulate matter:
SMSAs that are located in AQCRs where data for the past 2 years
indicates the AQCR is below all NAAQS.
2. Sulfur dioxide:
SMSAs that are located in AQCRs where data for the past 2 years in-
dicated that the AQCR is below all NAAQS and, the product of (1) the air
quality concentration in the past year and (2) the relative growth in
SMSA total earnings between the base year and 1985 is less than the
23
-------
national ambient air quality standards.
3. Carbon monoxide:
Use Figure 3-1 and the following procedures to determine those SMSAs
that can be excluded from consideration as an AQMA.
a. Estimate the percent contribution of CO emissions from light-
duty vehicles to total mobile source carbon monoxide emissions on heavily
used, central city streets; choose the area where LDV contribution is re-
presentative of the local area in the vicinity of the air quality monitor-
ing site.
b. Locate the point of Figure 3-1 corresponding to the highest
measured 8-hour CO concentration in the central city in 1970 and the LDV
contribution to local mobile source emissions estimated under (a) above.
c. If the intersection determined in (b) above lies on or below
the curve, the area may be automatically eliminated from consideration
as an AQMA; if the point lies above the curve, proceed with the analysis
described in Section 5-2.
4. Photochemical oxidants:
SMSAs which have no transportation control strategy for photochemical
oxidants and_ which are located in AQCRs with a maximum 1-hour oxidant
concentration of less than 320 ug/m3 during the past 2 years are excluded.
5. Nitrogen dioxide:
a. SMSAs not designated by the inclusion criteria in Section 3.2(e)
are excluded.
3.2 INCLUSION OF OBVIOUS PROBLEM AREAS
Areas that meet any one of the following criteria should be designated,
in whole or at least in part, as an AQMA for the particular pollutant.
24
-------
0 20 40 60 80 100
CONTRIBUTION OF LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES TO LOCAL MOBILE SOURCE EMISSION, percent
Figure 3-1. Exclusion criteria for carbon monoxide as a function of the
distribution of emissions between light- and heavy-duty vehicles on local
streets.
25
-------
1. Partlculate matter:
Areas within AQCRs that are not projected to attain the MAAQS for
particulate matter by 1985.
b. Sulfur dioxide:
Areas within AQCRs that eve not projected to attain the NAAQS for
sulfur dioxide by 1985.
3. Carbon monoxide:
No automatic inclusion criteria.
4. Photochemical oxidants:
Any areas for which a transportation control strategy for photo-
chemical oxidants is required (Table 3-1).
5. Nitrogen dioxide:
The appropriate parts of those SMSAs whose central cities are Los
Angeles, Chicago, New York, Denver, and Salt Lake City.
26
-------
Table 3-1. AQCRs IN WHICH TRANSPORTATION CONTROL STRATEGIES ARE REQUIRED
State
Alaska
Arizona
California
Colorado
District of
Columbia
Illinois
Indiana
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey
New York
Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Texas
AQCR
Northern Alaska Intrastate
Phoenix-Tucs %n Intrastate
San Francisco Bay Area Intrastate
Sacramento Valley Intrastate
Metropolitan Los Angeles Intrastate
San Joaquin Valley Intrastate
San Diego Intrastate
Southeastern Desert
Metropolitan Denver Intrastate
National Capital Interstate
Metropolitan Chicago Interstate
Metropolitan Indianapolis Interstate
National Capital Interstate
Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate
Metropolitan Boston Intrastate
Hartford-New Haven-Springfield Interstate
Minneapolis-St. Paul Interstate
Metropolitan St. Louis Interstate
New Jersey-New York-Connecticut Interstate
Metropolitan Philadelphia Interstate
New Jersey-New York-Connecticut Interstate
Genesee-Finger Lakes Intrastate
Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate
Portland Interstate
Metropolitan Philadelphia Interstate
Southwest Pennsylvania Intrastate
Metropolitan Providence Interstate
Metropolitan San Antonia Intrastate
Metropolitan Dallas-Ft. Worth Intrastate
Austin-Waco Intrastate
Required for
CO
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Ox
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
27
-------
Table 3-1 (continued). AQCRs IN WHICH TRANSPORTATION CONTROL STRATEGIES ARE REQUIRED
State
Texas (cont.)
Utah
Virginia
Washington
AQCR
El Paso-Las Cruces-Alamagordo Interstate
Corpus Chris t1 -Victoria Intrastate
Metropolitan Houston-Gal veston Intrastate
Southern Louisiana-Southeast Texas Interstate3
Wasatch Front Intrastate
National Capitol Interstate
Puget Sound Intrastate
Eastern Washington-Northern Idaho Interstate
Required for
rn ""
X
X
X
X
UA
X
X
X
X
X
a. Currently under study; may require only stationary source control.
28
-------
4. METHODS FOR PROJECTING EMISSIONS
In order to identify those SMSAs that could become AQMAs during the
period of 1975 to 1985, it will be necessary to first determine 1970 emis-
sions, project these emissions to 1975 (or 1977 for areas granted extensions)
to account for current SIP control strategy reductions, and then further
project emissions to 1985 using Bureau of Economic Analysis indicators of
growth in population and earnings for SMSAs. From the 1985 emissions,
air quality can then be estimated by techniques presented in Section 5
and compared with the applicable standards to determine if the area being
considered should, in fact, be designated as an AQMA. In many cases,
1975 emissions will already have been estimated for the purpose of develop-
ing SIP control strategies. In the event that 1975 emissions are given in
the state's implementation plan by county and they are still valid, they
may be used directly, and no projection to 1975 would, of course, be
necessary. For ease in both computation and review, emissions can be
recorded by county within each SMSA as shown in Table 4-1. A suggested
process for projecting emissions is presented in the flow diagram of
Figure 4-1.
29
-------
Table 4-1. EMISSION PROJECTION CALCULATIONS3
A
Source
class
Fuel combustion
Power plants
Point sources"
Area sources
Subtotal
Industrial process
, Point sources (Subtotal)
Solid Waste disposal
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Transportation
LDV
HDV
Subtotal
Miscellaneous
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
TOTAL
B
1970
emissions
C
Reduction
factors
C-l
Growth
factor
(1975/1970)
D
1975
emissions
E
Growth
rate
[(1985/1975)-!]
,
F
Emission
factor
adjustment
G
1985
emissions
G = D(l + EF)
aA table such as this should be prepared for each pollutant.
b.
Power plants excluded.
-------
Determine 1970 emissions by source category from state files,
SIPs, or NEDS data bank
Assemble county emissions data into SMSA totals for 1970
PREFERRED METHOD ,,
Apply SIP control strategies to each
source to determine allowable emis-
sions in 1975
BACK-UP METHOD
Apply reduction factors in Table 4-2
to emissions from 1970 uncontrolled
power plants to obtain 1975 controlled
emissions (Use more specific estimates
if available.)
Calculate 1975 emissions from new
power plants using capacity of planned
new units from utility data or "Steam-
Electric Plant Factors" and apply
regulations.
Calculate 1975 emissions from new power
plants, using capacity of planned units
from utility data or "Steam-Electric
Plant Factors" and apply regulations.
For industrial process, solid waste and
misc. sources determine 1975 controlled
emissions by applying reduction factors
from Table 4-2 (or local regulations)
to J970 emissions, by source category
For industrial process, solid waste
and misc. sources, calculate growth
in emissions from 1970 to 1975 using
BEA indicators
I
i
Determine 1985 emissions from transportation sources using
formula Qlg85 = S(Qbase) 6.E. (for CO, HC, and N0x)
Determine growth of emissions from 1975 to 1985 for all sources
other than transportation using BEA indicators
Determine 1985 controlled emissions from 1975 emissions for
industrial process, solid waste, and miscellaneous sources,
using BEA growth factors and emission factor adjustments
i : " : ~
i
Total 1985 emissions from all source categories
Figure 4-1. Calculation of 1975 and 1985 emissions.
31
-------
4.1 PROJECTING 1975 EMISSIONS
Two methods for projecting 1975 emissions are presented below, a
"preferred" method and a "back-up" method. By implication, EPA expects the
"preferred" method to be used for the most part in each state. Only where
time does not permit or where the wor^oad will be great (such as for those
states that have a large number of SMSAs to be analyzed), should the "back-
up" method be used. Before deciding to use the "back-up" method, states
should discuss the problems of using the "preferred" method with the repre-
sentative responsible for maintenance of standards in the appropriate EPA
Regional Office. CO, HC, and N0x emissions from transportation sources
can be calculated to 1985 directly by the method presented below in
Section 4.2.
4.1.1 Preferred Method
This method is the same as that used in the development of the original
implementation plans, i.e., a source-by-source tabulation of emissions
allowed under the applicable control strategies contained in the state's
implementation plan. Data should be presented and submitted in a form
similar to that presented in Appendix D of 40 CFR, Part 51.
For projections of new steam-generating power plants, it is recommended
that states contact electric utility companies directly. If time does not
permit this, use 1975 projections of new capacity in the latest edition of
"Steam-Electric Plant Factors" published by the National Coal Association.
32
-------
After the source-by-source tabulation of allowable emission has been
computed, tabulate the allowable emissions into the following categories,
and use the recommended projection parameter to account for growth to
1975.
Recommended BEA
Category Projection Parameter*
Fuel combustion (excluding power plants) Total earnings
Industrial processes Manufacturing earnings
Solid waste Population
Miscellaneous Total earnings
Emissions from these four categories and power plants can be recorded
in Table 4-1.
4.1.2 Back-up Method
The following technique is based on 1970 summary NEDS data, and uses
average emission reduction factors derived from analysis of point source
*EPA's recommendation that these parameters be used was based upon avail-
able information and was not the result of a statistical analysis to
determine an accurate correlation between emissions from a particular
category and an economic or demographic parameter. Furthermore, the user
of these projections should be aware that it is not known what relation-
ship exists between an increase in an economic indicator and an increase
in emissions from a particular category. Another complicating factor is
the present energy situation—it is not known what effect the current
situation will have on long-term growth.
33
-------
emissions 1n six AQCRs (St. Louis, Denver, Washington, D.C., Seattle,
Indianapolis, and Boston). These factors represent reductions 1n emissions
resulting from Imposition of typical regulations under the SIP process.
Power plant emissions are calculated separately from other sources because
(1) of the Importance of their emissions, (2) different emission reduction
ratios must be applied to them, and (3) projections of new power plants are
readily available. Obviously, SIP emission limitations vary widely, and
thus the factors may over- or underestimate results in some cases. In the
interest of alleviating a time-consuming burden, however, EPA offers this
technique as a substitute for a detailed source-by-source and detailed
category analysis only in those states where time does not permit use of
the "preferred" method.
4.1.2.1 Step A - Determine 1970 Emissions - Using emissions summaries, or
NEDS data bank, obtain and record 1970 emissions for each pollutant by point
and area source category, i.e., fuel combustion, industrial processes, solid
waste, transportation, and miscellaneous sources. Show emissions for power
plants separate from other fuel combustion sources. Emissions can be recorded
in this manner as shown in Table 4-1.
4.1.2.2 Step B - Determine 1975 Power Plant Emissions - Calculate power
plant emissions from existing and new plants using data from Steam-Electric
2
Plant Factors, published yearly by the National Coal Association.
2
Steam-Electric Plant Factors. National Coal Association, 1130 Seventeenth
St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036.
34
-------
4.1.2.2.1 Power plants existing in 1970 - Multiply 1970 SIP emission
factors in Table 4-2 (or more specific factors, if available) to get 1975
controlled emissions. This reduction applies only to those plants that
were not controlled to SIP regulations in 1970. For power plants that were
under control in 1970, extend 1970 emissions unchanged to 1985.
4.1.2.2.2 New power plants - It is preferable that the state contact
electric utility companies directly to obtain projections of new power plants,
If time does not permit this, use 1975 projections of new capacity in the
latest edition of Steam-Electric Plant Factors. Calculate emissions in
1975 for additional capacity over 1970 using appropriate factors for losses
allowed by Federal New Source Performance Standards, or SIP regulations in
the event the SIP regulations either take effect earlier or are more
stringent than the NSPS.
4.1.2.3 Step C Determine 1975 Emissions from Other Sources - Determine
allowable emissions in 1975 for point and area sources (other than power
plants and transportation sources) by source category using the emission re-
duction factors given in Table 4-2. If it is likely that state regulations
or those of a local agency within state boundaries would result in values
significantly different from those produced by use of the factors in Table
4-2, then the state should use its own regulations or those of the appropri-
ate local agency in determining 1975 emissions. Such regulations should be
documented. Since this estimate does not account for growth between 1970
and 1975, the results of using Table 4-2 must be modified by the projected
growth in emissions for each source category.
4.1.2.4 Step D - Project Growth Rates for 1970 to 1975 - To obtain emissions
for all sources except power plants, multiply emissions determined in Step C
35
-------
Table 4-2. EMISSION REDUCTION FACTORS
(Ratio of 1975 allowable emissions to 1970 emissions)
Source Category
Fuel combustion
Point sources minus power generation
Area sources
Power generation sources
Industrial processes
Solid Waste
Point sources
Area sources
Transportation
Miscellaneous
Point sources
Area sources
Particulate
matter
0.44
0.48
0.50
0.43
0.29
0.28
1.0
1.0
1.0
S0x
0.43
0.57
0.43
0.37
1.0
0.82
1.0
1.0
1.0
HC
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.47
1.0
0.88
b
0.48
1.0
CO
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.10
0.53
0.88
b
1.0
1.0
NOX
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
b
1.0
1.0
These emission reduction factors for 1975 as compared to 1970 are based on
a composite of expected and existing conditions and emission control regu-
lations in St. Louis, Denver, Washington, D.C., Seattle, Indianapolis, and
Boston. All agencies should develop such factors for conditions in each
area under consideration wh¥never possible. The factors above should be
used only when such specific factors cannot be prepared.
Calculated by different method; see text.
36
-------
above by growth factors obtained from available data or BEA projections, deter-
mined as follows:*
1. For fuel combustion sources, except power plants (where the method
of calculating growth has been previously explained), it is suggested
that the growth rate be based on the percent increase in total earnings
from 1970 to 1975 for the particular SMSA.
2. For the industrial processes, the growth rate can be based on the
percent increase in manufacturina earnings.
3. For solid waste emissions, the growth factor can be based on the
percent increase in population for 1970 to 1975.
4. For miscellaneous emissions, the growth factor can be based on the
increase in total earnings as was sugciested for the category of fuel
combustion sources.
5. For particulate matter and SO emissions from transportation, the
/\
growth factor can be based on the increase in population. These growth
factors can be inserted in Column C-l.
4.2 PROJECTING 1985 EMISSIONS
For transportation sources, the following formula may be used to compute
1985 emissions using 1972 baseline data for NO. and 1970 baseline data for all
other pollutants. (It is not necessary to make a calculation to determine the
level of 1975 emissions for transportation sources):
Q1985 = «Wi Gi Ei
*CO, HC, and NO emissions from transportation sources can be calculated to
1985 directly by the method presented in Section 4.2
37
-------
where Q19Q5 = Projected 1985 emissions
^base^i = Baseline emission from source category i.
G.J = Growth factor for source category i.
E.J = Emission factor ratio for source category i.
Project 1985 emissions from 1975 emissions for all source categories
other than transportation using the formula:*
Fi = C1 (1+D,M
where: F = 1985 emissions from source category i
D = Growth rate of emissions between 1975 and 1985 for source
category i
E = Emission factor adjustment for source category i (applied only
to industrial process sources - for all other categories E. =• 1)
Growth rates (D in Equation 4-2) for emissions between 1975 and 1985
are the same as those used to project 1975 emissions (see footnote in
Section 4.1.1). That is, the percent increase in total earnings projected
for 1975 to 1985 may be used to project emissions from fuel combustion; the
percent increase in manufacturing earnings may be used for industrial pro-
cessess; the percent increase in population may be used for solid waste
emissions and particulate matter and SOX emissions from transportation; and
the percent increase in total earnings may be used for the miscellaneous
category. For power plants, it is again recommended that the state contact
electric utility companies directly. If time does not permit this, the percent
increase in total earnings projected for 1975 to 1985 may be used to project
1985 power plant emissions since it appears to be most closely related to the
*This formula is not to be used for power plants if actual existing and pro-
jected emissions are available.
38
-------
o
increased demand for electric power. Add these power plant emissions to
the emissions extended unchanged from 1970 to get total 1985 emissions from
power plants.
An adjustment will be needed to account for control between 1975 and
1985 of new industrial process sources because of forthcoming new source
performance standards. Generally, these standards will be more stringent
than limitations presently contained in the SIPs. The adjustment needed
to account for future new source performance standards would be the ratio
of the estimated percent allowable emissions under the future new source
performance standards to the percent allowable emissions under the current
SIP control strategy. These ratios, of course, vary widely among industrial
categories. Furthermore, EPA has only a rough idea of what the standards
will eventually be. It is suggested, therefore, that a composite adjustment
factor of 0.40 be used as the "E" value in Equation 4-2 for industrial process
sources for each pollutant. Bear in mind that this "E" value applies only
to industrial process sources. For other source categories, use E=l. Examples
of the method of projecting 1985 emissions and air quality, using the "back-
up" method of projecting 1975 emissions, are enclosed in Appendix B of these
guidelines.
39
-------
5. INSTRUCTIONS FOR MODELING AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS
5.1 INTRODUCTION
This section of the guideline presents information concerning models
recommended for use in predicting 1985 air quality, once 1985 emissions
have been calculated. After this air quality prediction has been made,
the designation of AQMAs can be made, i.e., those areas that are pre-
dicted to exceed the standard can be selected.
5.2 ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR CARBON MONOXIDE
Once carbon monoxide (CO) emissions have been projected to 1985, using
techniques found in Chapter 4 of this document, air quality concentrations
for CO can be determined with the aid of the following techniques.
High CO concentrations are observed primarily near areas of high
traffic density. "Rollback" models for CO have been criticized for
giving undue weight to stationary source CO emissions and to vehicle emis-
sions growth in the suburbs as compared to vehicle emissions arowth on
streets in the fully developed parts of urban areas where most existing air
sampling sites are located. The following model mitigates these problems by
giving the most weight (80 per cent) to local traffic near the air sampling
station and relatively less weight (20 per cent) to total regional emissions.
The model divides the observed CO concentration into two parts:
that attributable to local traffic, and that attributable to the entire
urbanized area. Changes in emissions from each of these components are
projected, and the 1985 concentration is predicted using modified roll-
back techniques. The model equations are:
41
-------
EL + PH
{5,2)
-^-^AJs
- - (5-3)
where: FT = Total future (1985) CO concentration
FL = Future concentration attributable to local traffic
Fy = Future concentration attributable to urban emission
b = Background concentration
B = Baseline concentration (measured or estimated).
PL = Percent emission from light-duty vehicles (gross
vehicle weight < 6000 Ib)
PH = Percent emission from other mobile sources (gross •
vehicle weight > 6000 Ib)
PS = Percent emission from stationary sources
G = Growth factor over the projection period, G* ^ G
E = Expected ratio of 1985 emission to baseline emission
for a composite source (Obtained from Table 5-1)
G* = Growth factor for traffic on local streets near
critical air sampling stations.
Equations 5-1, 5-2, and 5-3 may be used to estimate 1985 CO concentra-
tions in those areas that cannot be eliminated by using the initial desig-
nation criteria. The information needed to apply the equations is listed
as follows:
1. Baseline air quality (b). Second highest 8-hour average, during most
recent year at a site where the public has access for at least 8 hours.'
2. Backqround CO concentration (b). Use l ppm 1f data to the CQntrary
are unavailable.
42
-------
3. Percentage contribution of light- and heavy-duty vehicles and
stationary sources to the baseline year emission inventory (same
year as air quality data). This information should be computed
from the latest emission inventory available locally. If local data
are unavailable, the National Emissions Data System (NEDS) data file
contains emissions data by county which may be used. The users of
equations 5-1, 5-2, and 5-3 must distinguish between two sets of P.
and PH values for the local traffic and general urban cases: in the
calculation of FL, use the PL and PH values used in the application
of the initial designation criteria for CO; in the calculation of F..,
use the PL and PH values corresponding to the general urban area.
4. Growth rates from past trends for the source categories. Ideally,
the growth rates should be based on a direct indicator of emission
potential such as vehicle miles, material processed, kilowatts
generated, etc. It may be necessary to use an indirect indicator
such as the BEA projections of population and economic activity.
Growth in population is recommended as a logical choice of estimator
of mobile source emissions.
5. Emission factor ratios. Nationwide emission factor ratios for motor
vehicles are presented in Table 5-1. If local mobile source emission
factors are expected to differ from the national by virtue of
transportation controls, unusual vehicle life expectancy, or other
reasons, local emission factor ratios may be used. The procedure
for calculating composite vehicle emission factors is presented i in
43
-------
Table 5-1. EMISSION FACTOR RATIOS3
Year
1970b
1975
1980
1985
1970b
1975
1980
1985
Heavy-duty
vehicles
Carbon monoxide
1.00
0.96
0.94
0.93
Hydrocarbons^
1.00
0.92
0.82
0.79
Light-duty
vehicles
1.00
0.59
0.29
0.08
1.00
0.50
0.25
0.07
Ratio of emissions in given year to 1970 base year.
bFor data bases other than 1970 (such as 1971, 1972, 1973) for CO and
HC, interpolate between 1970 and 1975 values.
44
-------
the publication EPA-450/2-73-003, An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle
o
Emission Estimation.
The emission factor ratio for stationary sources will depend
on the particular source mix in the area and on state regulations
for stationary source CC emissions. If such information is unavail-
able, then the following emission factor ratios may be used:
CO Emission Factor
Source Ratio. 1970-1985
Power plants 1.0
Industry 0.5
Area Sources (stationary) 1.0
The overall stationary source emission factor ratio is calculated
from
E =P F +PF+PF
^composite rPP LPP HI bl + *A fcA
5.3 RELATING OXIDANT CONCENTRATION TO HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS
Appendix J to 40 CFR Part 51 "Requirements for Preparation, Adoption,
and Submittal of Implementation Plans" (published in the August 14, 1971,
and republished in the November 25, ]971, Federal Register) presents an
estimate of the hydrocarbon emission reduction needed to obtain the NAAQS
for photochemical oxidant. This estimate is based on an "envelope curve"
that encloses data points for nonmethane hydrocarbon and oxidant concentra-
tions in several cities.
There is evidence to suggest that HC/NO ratios should decrease as a
s\
result of emission control regulations in force and anticipated. There
Kircher, D.S. and Armstronq, D.P. "An Interim Report on Motor Vehicle
Emission Estimation," EPA-450/2-73-003, Research Triangle Park N C
October 1973. ' '
45
-------
should also be some oxidant reduction, although the amount of additional
reduction cannot be quantified at present. Therefore, Appendix J must
be considered a conservative estimate in that it may require more HC
reduction than needed.
Appendix J should be used as follows:
1. Project 1985 HC emissions as shown in Steps A through D of
Section 4.1.2.1 through 4.1.2.4.
2. Determine the expected emission change by
Rexpected = Ebase " E1985 x 100%
base
3. Determine the required percentage hydrocarbons emission reduc-
tions using Appendix J and the highest observed 1-hour oxiclant
concentration durinq the baseline year.
4. If R required from Step 3 is greater than R expected from
Step 2, the area should be designated an AQMA for oxidant.
This will be especially true if Rexpected is a negative number.
5.4 ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR OTHER POLLUTANTS--RELATING PROJECTED EMISSIONS
TO AIR QUALITY
5.4.1 Proportional Roll-forward Model
Present air quality may be projected to 1985 for pollutants other than
oxidants and CO (i.e., air quality may be projected for TSP, S02, and NO )
using the proportional rollforward model as shown in the following formula.
C1985 = b + (Cbase ' b> *™*
^base
Where: C-|Q85 = projected concentration
b = background concentration
46
-------
Cbase = base1ine concentration
Q1985 = projected emission
Qbase = baseline emission
While the proportional roll forward technique is a potential means
for selecting which counties or SMSAs to designate as AQMAs, it has
several shortcomings which may render it unsuitable, or impossible, to
apply. There are:
1. Base year air quality observations are required.
2. The monitoring data must be representative of the area of
interest (i.e., a monitor dominated by a single point source or
a small number of select sources may result in anomalous pre-
dictions).
3. The meteorology occurring during the base period must be simi-
lar to that which is of interest during the period being
modeled. As a result of these limitations, it may be necessary
to designate AQMAs using analytical techniques which:
a. Do not require previous air quality observations,
b. Take some explicit account, at least in a rough sense,
of meteorological differences.
Where the above conditions apply with particular force, it may be
appropriate to use the Miller-Holzworth model described in the next
section.
5.4.2 Miller-Holzworth Model
The Miller-Holzworth Model can be used only for the calculation of
annual averages of suspended particulate matter and sulfur dioxide. The
47
-------
Miller-Holzworth Model 1-3 for area sources assumes concentrations to be a
function of emission density, wind speed, atmospheric mixing depth, and city
size. The model implicitly assumes that the atmosphere is slightly unstable
(between Turner Stability Classes C and D).4 Stability assumptions cannot
be varied. The model, as formulated below, estimates the city-wide average
concentration for the sampling time of interest. The relationship among
average city-wide concentration, emission density, city size, wind speed,
and mixing depth is: -.
X-0.011Q [3.61H°-13 + ^ . (5.5 , UT5) uH1-".] (5-4)
Where v~ = average city-wide concentration, wj/m
• 2
q = emission density, tons/yr-mi
H = mixing depth, m
S = along-wind distance of the city (miles). When this is
not known, assume S =yareir. The "area" is the urbanized
portion of the city.
u = wind speed, m/sec
In cities in which 1600 S/u 0.471 H1'13, mixing depth is unimportant and
X becomes X = 0.044 q (1600 S/u)0'115 (5~5)
The procedure one would use in applying the model would depend on
'^'ftfiltMf air q'Uatltf clatrWere1 available; awf brt the pbltutaht -tfUii sampling
time being analyzed.
1. If no air quality data are available
a. Use emission density estimates obtained as shown in Section 4
of these Guidelines, "Methods of Projecting Emissions"
2
(tons/yr-mi )
4Turner, D.B., "Workbook of Atmospheric Dispersion Estimates." 999-AP-26
(1969).
48
-------
b. For annual standards such as the NAAQS for nitrogen dioxide,
refer to Figures 1 and 11 in OAP Publication AP-101 showing the
mean annual morning mixing depths and wind speeds for the United
States. Select the values of "H" and "U" which are appropriate
for the u^ea of the country being analyzed. Use these in
Equation (5-4) or Equation (5-5)
c. For short-term (1-hour to 24-hour) standards, refer to Figures
2 and 12, in Reference 3 showing mean winter morning mixing
depths and wind speeds. Use the indicated values in Equation
(5-4) or Equation (5-5).
2. If air quality data are available
a. Take emission projections obtained as shown in Section 4 of
these Guidelines.
b. Subtract present emission density from projected emission
density.
c. Apply the Miller-Holzworth Model as described above except use
the difference between projected and present emission densities
in Equation (5-4) or (5-5) to obtain
AX = 0.01UQ [3.61 H°'13 + §0- (5.5x10-5) u ^ -26 J (5.5,
or A* = 0.011AQ (1600 S/u)°'115 (5-7)
d. Add A x" to the observed air quality levels
Holzworth, 6.C., "Mixing Heights, Mind Speeds, and Potential for Urban Air
Pollution Throughout the Contiguous United States," OAP Publication AP-101,
January 1972.
49
-------
3. Use of Calibrated Miller-Holzworth Model
Wherever possible, it would be preferable to use a version of the
model that has been calibrated with observed data. Figure 1 in
Appendix A of the 40 CFR Part 51 is such a version that has been
calibrated for annual TSP and S0? concentrations in cases where
mixing depth is unimportant. Such cases would occur when
1600 S/u < 0.471 H1'13
In many cases, mixing depth remains relatively unimportant for
] 1 O
pollutant travel times greater than 0.471 H . Thus, if the
annual concentration of TSP or S0? concentrations is of interest,
Figure 1 in Appendix A, of 40 CFR Part 51 should be used instead
of Equations (5-4), (5-5), (5-6), (5-7).
5.4.3 Estimating Short-Term Concentrations for Sulfur Dioxide and Participates
It is necessary that the short-term standards for S0? and TSP be main-
tained as well as the annual standards. Two methods may be employed to
estimate compliance with short-term standards: roll forward and the log-
normal relationship.
5.4.3.1 Roll forward - The proportional model given in Section 5.4.1 may be
applied directly to snort-term concentrations. The second highest 24-hour
or 3-hour concentration* observed in the AQMA entered as C.. . and the cal-
"- • -••i-*.JeJ!§§L „,,,
" *"*** *&£, ,
culated C,gg5 is compared with the appropriate short-term standard/
5.4.3.2 Log-Normal - Log-normal model is an empirical relationship developed
by Dr. Larsen of EPA. The model allows the estimation of short-term maximum
concentrations given the annual average and a characteristic parameter of the .
*Short-term standards are not to be exceeded more than once per year. Thus,
it is the second highest value that must meet NAAQS.
50
-------
concentration distribution called the Geometric Standard Deviation (GSD).
Table 5-2 is taken directly from R. I. Larsen's A Mathematical Model for
Relating Air Quality Measurements to Air Quality Standards. AP-89. Using
this table, the peak concentration may be calculated from the annual average
provided the GSD is know^. The GSD is routinely calculated for air quality
data in the SAROAD data bank.
5.5 COMPARISON OF PROJECTED AIR QUALITY WITH NAAQS
After air quality concentrations have been projected to 1985, a compari-
son to the NAAQS presented in Section 2.8 can be made. If the projected air
quality of an area exceeds a NAAQS, the area should be designated an AQMA
for that pollutant; conversely, if the projected air quality does not exceed
a NAAQS, the area does not have to be designated as an AQMA for that pollu-
tant.
NOTE: Examples of the method of projecting 1985 emissions and air quality
using the "back-up" method of projecting 1975 emissions are enclosed
in Appendix B of these guidelines.
51
-------
Table 5-2. RATIO OF EXPECTED ANNUAL MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION
TO ARITHMETIC MEAN CONCENTRATION FOR VARIOUS AVERAGING
TIMES AND STANDARD GEOMETRIC DEVIATIONS
Standard geometric deviation for
averaging times of:
1 sec
1.00
1.07
1.14
1.21
1.29
1.36
1.44
1.51
1.59
1.67
1.75
1.83
1.91
1.99
2.08
2.16
2.25
2.34
2.42
2.51
2.60
2.69
2.78
2.87
2.97
3.06
3.15
3.25
3.34
3.44
3.54
3.64
3.74
3.83
3.93
4.04
4.14
4.24
4.34
4.45
4.55
4.66
4.76
4.87
4.97
5 min
1.00
1.06
1.11
1.17
1.23
1.29
1.34
1.40
1.46
1.52
1.58
1.64
1.70
1.76
1.82
1.88
1.94
2.00
2.06
2.12
2.19
2.25
2.31
2.37
2.43
2.50
2.56
2.62
2.69
2.75
2.81
2.88
2.94
3.00
3.07
3.13
3.20
3.26
3.33
3.39
3.46
3.52
3.59
3.65
3.72
1hr
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50
2.55
2.60
2.65
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.85
2.90
2.95
3.00
3.05
3.10
3.15
3.20
3hr
1.00
1.05
1.09
1.14
1.19
1.23
1.28
1.32
1.37
1.42
1.46
1.51
1.55
1.60
1.64
1.69
1.74
1.78
1.83
1.87
1.92
1.96
2.00
2.05
2.09
2.14
2.18
2.23
2.27
2.32
2.36
2.41
2.45
2.49
2.54
2.58
2.63
2.67
2.71
2.76
2.80
2.84
2.89
2.93
2.98
8hr
1.00
1.04
1.09
1.13
1.17
1.22
1.26
1.30
1.34
1.39
1.43
1.47
1.51
1.55
1.59
1.63
1.68
1.72
1.76
1.80
1.84
1.88
1.92
1.96
2.00
2.04
2.08
2.12
2.16
2.20
2.24
2.27
2.31
2.35
2.39
2.43
2.47
2.51
2.55
2.59
2.62
2.66
2.70
2.74
2.78
1 day
1.00
1.04
1.08
1.12
1.16
1.20
1.24
1.27
1.31
1.35
1.39
1.42
1.46
1.50
1.53
1.57
1.61
1.64
1.68
1.71
1.75
1.78
1.82
1.85
1.89
1.92
1.96
1.99
2.03
2.06
2.09
2.13
2.16
2.19
2.23
2.26
2.29
2.33
2.36
2.39
2.42
2.46
2.49
2.52
2.55
4 days
1.00
1.04
1.07
1.10
1.14
1.17
1.20
1.24
1.27
1.30
1.33
1.36
1.39
1.42
1.45
1.48
1.51
1.54
1.57
1.60
.63
.66
.69
.72
.74
1.77
1.80
.83
.85
.88
.91
.93
1.96
1.99
2.01
2.04
2.07
2.09
2.12
2.14
2.17
2.20
2.22
2.25
2.27
1 mo
1.00
1.03
1.05
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.15
1.17
1.19
1.21
1.24
1.26
1.28
1.30
1.32
1.34
1.36
1.38
1.40
1.42
1.44
1.46
1.47
1.49
1.51
1.53
1.55
1.56
1.58
1.60
1.62
1.63
1.65
1.67
1.68
1.70
1.71
1.73
1.75
1.76
1.78
1.79
1.81
1.82
1.84
Ratio of annual maximum concentration to mean
concentration for averaging times of:
1 sec
1.00
1.44
2.04
2.83
3.86
5.18
6.85
8.94
11.53
14.69
18.53
23.14
28.65
35.16
42.83
51.78
62.18
74.18
87.96
103.70
121.61
141.88
164.73
190.39
219.09
251.07
286.61
325.94
369.37
417.15
469.60
527.00
539.67
657.92
732.07
812.47
899.45
993.34
1094.51
1203.31
1320.11
1445.27
1579.16
1722.17
1874.68
5 min
1.00
1.27
1.59
1.97
2.42
2.93
3.51
4.18
4.03
5.77
6.71
7.76
8.92
10.19
11.58
13.11
14.76
16.56
18.50
20.59
22.83
25.24
27.81
30.55
33.47
36.56
39.84
43.31
46.97
50.82
54.88
59.14
63.60
68.28
73.17
78.28
83.61
89.16
94.94
100.94
107.17
113.64
120.34
127.28
134.46
1 hr
1.00
1.20
1.43
1.69
1.97
2.28
2.63
3.00
3.41
3.84
4.32
4.82
5.37
5.95
6.56
7.21
7.90
8.62
9.39
10.19
11.03
11.91
12.83
13.78
14.78
15.81
16.89
18.00
19.15
20.34
21.57
22.84
24.14
25.49
26.87
28.29
29.75
31.24
32.78
34.35
35.95
37.60
39.28
40.99
42.74
3hr
1.00
1.17
1.37
1.57
1.80
2.05
2.31
2.60
2.90
3.22
3.56
3.92
4.30
4.70
5.12
5.55
6.01
6.49
6.98
7.49
8.03
8.58
9.15
9.74
10.34
10.97
11.61
12.27
12.94
13.64
14.35
15.07
15.82
16.58
17.35
18.14
18,95
1977
20.60
21.45
22.32
23.20
24.09
25.00
25.92
8hr
1.00
1.15
1.31
1.48
1.66
1.86
2.06
2.28
2.51
2.75
3.00
3.26
3.53
3.81
4.10
4.40
4.71
5.03
5.36
5.70
6.04
6.40
6.76
7.14
7.52
7.91
8.30
8.71
9.12
9.54
9.97
10.40
10.84
11.28
11.74
12.20
12.66
13.13
13.61
14.09
14.58
15.07
15.57
16.07
16.57
Iday
1.00
1.12
1.25
1.38
1.52
1.67
1.82
1.98
2.14
2.31
2.48
2.65
2.84
3.02
3.21
3.40
3.60
3.80
4.00
4.21
4.42
4.64
4.85
5.07
5.29
5.52
5.75
5.98
6.21
6.44
6.68
6.92
7.16
7.40
7.64
7.89
8.13
8.38
8.63
8.88
9.13
9.38
9.64
9.89
10.15
4 days
1.00
1.09
1.18
1.27
1.36
1.46
1.56
1.65
1.75
1.85
1.95,
2.05
2.15
2.26
2.36
2.46
2.57
2.67
2.77
2.88
2.98
3.09
3.19
3.30
3.40
3.51
3.61 .
3.72
3.82
3.93
4.03
4.13
4.24
4.34
4.44
4.55
4.65
4.75
4.86
4.96
5.06
5.16
5.26
5.36
5.46
1 mo
1.00
1.04
1.08
1.12
1.16
1.20
1.24
1.28
1.31
1.35
1.38
1.42
1.45
1.48
1.52
1.55
1.58
1.61
1.64
1.67
1.70
1.73
1.75
1.78
1.81
.83
.86
.88
.91
.93
.96
.98
2.00
2.03
2.05
2.07
2.09
2.11
2.13
2.16
2.18
2.20
2.22
2.24
2.25
52
-------
Table 5-2 (Continued). RATIO OF EXPECTED ANNUAL MAXIMUM POLLUTANT
CONCENTRATION TO ARITHMETIC MEAN CONCENTRATION FOR VARIOUS AVERAGING
TIMES AND STANDARD GEOMETRIC DEVIATIONS
1 sec
5.08
5.19
5.30
5.41
5.52
5.63
5.74
5.85
5.96
6.08
6.19
6.30
6.42
6.53
6.65
Standard geometric deviation for
averaging times of:
5 min
3.78
3.85
3.91
3.98
4.05
4.11
4.18
4.24
4.31
4.38
4.44
4.51
4.58
4.65
4.71
1 hr
3.25
3.30
3.35
3.40
3.45
3.50
3.55
3.60
3.65
3.70
3.75
3.80
3.85
3.90
3.95
3hr
3.02
3.06
3 11
3.15
3.19
3.24
3.28
3.32
3.37
3.41
3.45
350
3.54
358
3.63
8hr
2.81
2.85
2.89
2.93
2.97
3.00
3.04
3.08
3.12
3.15
3.19
3.23
3.27
3.30
3.34
1 day
2.59
2.62
2.65
2.68
2.71
2.75
2.78
2.81
2.84
2.87
2.90
2.93
2.96
3.00
3.03
4 days
2.3°
2.32
2.35
2.37
2.39
2.42
2.44
2.47
2.49
2.52
2.54
2.56
2.59
2.61
2.63
1 mo
1.85
1.87
1.88
1.90
1.91
1.93
1.94
1.95
1.97
1.98
2.00
2.01
2.02
2.04
2.05
Ratio of annual maximum concentration to mean
concentration for averaqinq times of •
1 sec
^•••••••••••HMI
2037.07
2209.73
2393.06
2587.45
2793.31
3011.02
3241.01
3483.66
3739.39
4008.61
4291.72
4589.13
4901.25
5228.49
5571.26
5 min
141.87
149.53
157.43
165.58
173.97
182.61
191.50
200.63
210.02
219.65
229.54
23967
250.06
260.70
271.59
1 hr
44.53
46.35
48.20
5009
52.01
5396
55.95
57.97
60.02
62.11
64.22
66.37
68.55
7075
72.99
3hr
26.85
27.79
28.75
29.72
3071
31.7Q
32.71
33.72
34.75
35.79
36.84
27.90
3897
40.05
41.14
8hr
17.09
17.60
18.12
18.65
19.17
19.71
20.24
20.78
21.32
21.87
22.42
22.97
23.53
24.09
24.65
1 day
10.40
10.66
10.92
11.18
11.44
11.70
11.96
12.22
12.48
12.74
13.00
13.26
13.53
13.79
14.05
4 days
5.56
566
5.76
5.86
5.96
6.05
6.15
6.25
6.34
6.44
6.53
6.63
6.72
6.82
6.91
1 mo
2 27
2.29
2.31
2.33
2.35
236
2.38
2.40
2.41
2.43
245
2.46
2.48
2.49
2.51
53
-------
6. PROJECTIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS BY SMSA
»
Table 6-1 presents the national projections of demographic and
economic indicators for the United States. These projections were taken
directly from Population and Economic Activity in the United States and
Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area_s_^_jjjstor1ca1 and Projected—
1950-2020. prepared by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA) in July, 1972.6 Because of the large number of
SMSAs, the major users of this document (state air pollution control
agencies and EPA Regional Offices) received cooies of the projections for
the SMSAs located in their particular geographic areas of interest. If
the reader desires a copy of the projections for particular SMSAs, he
can request these from the representative responsible for matters con-
cerning maintenance of air quality standards in the aopropriate EPA
Regional Office or the appropriate state air pollution control agency.
The BEA projection report is also located in U.S. Government depository
libraries under the GPO number EP 1.2:P31/950-020.
This chapter also contains a list of states and the names of the
SMSAs located in each state (this list is of the SMSAs as of January 7,
1972, not the most current list), and a list of the SMSAs and the counties
which are contained within each SMSA (again, these are the SMSAs of
January 7, 1972)
Population and Economic Activity in the United States and Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas - HistgrjcaT^anriPrnjort^ 1050 2020
The U.S Department of Conmerce, Social and Economic Statistics '
Administration, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washinaton, D C GPO
Number EP1.2:P81/950-020. July 1972. 543 pages (may be purchased
Off1ce>
55
-------
UNITED STATFS TOTAL
Table 6-1.
POPULATION. KICYEAR
PER CAPITA MCOE (196711.
»ER CAPITA INCOME RELATIVE (US'1.001
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
EMPLOYMENT/POPULATION RATIO
TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME »
'0T-.L EARNINGS
AGRICULTURE. FORESTRY 6 FISHERIES
AGRICULTURE
FORESTRY t FISHERIES
MINING
MET1L
COAL
CRUDE PFTHOLEU* t NATURAL GAS
NONMETALLIC. EXCEPT FUELS
CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION
MANUFACTURING
FOCC (, KINDRED ORCCUCTS
TEXTILF-MILL PRODUCTS
(J-l APPSSEL 6 OTHER FA6MIC PRODUCTS
CT> LUMBER PRODUCTS 4, FURNITURE
PAPER {. ALLIED PRODUCTS
PRIMING !, PUBLISHING
CHCMICALS 6 ALLIED PRODUCTS
PETHCLEUI- RFFINING
PR[M»PY *ETAIS
FABRICATED METALS (, ORDNANCE
MACH.'NEPY, EXCLUDING ELECTRICAL
ELECTRICAL HAC«INFRY 6 SUPPLIES
TOTAL MACHINERY (1950 ONLY)
MOTOR VEHICLES 6 ECUIPMENT
TRANS. TCUIP., EXCL. MTR. VEMS.
OTHEN MANUFACTURING
TRANS., COCM. s, PUBLIC UTILITIES
WHOLESALE t RETAIL TRACE
FINANCE, INSURANCE 6 REAL ESTATE
SERVICES
GOVERNMENT
CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT
*R*EC FORCES
SELECTED YEARS, 1950-2020 •""""" "•=> '"«i"L AM; PKCJECTED.
1950
151,871,000
2.065
1.00
57.474.912
.38
313.569.016
258.747,759
23.597.264
23.131,448
465,815
5.145.232
547.307
2,284.452
1.734,785
562.841
15.433,087
74,8171,598
8,050, J58
5.090,329
4,533,807
4.749.634
2.507,683
4,237.257
J.653.5'2
1.433.283
6.696.935
5,431,271
11,872,590
4.618,238
2,629.937
9.151.692
21.131.02S
48.939.614
10.911.234
28.904,344
29.818.358
23.930.883
5,887,475
1959
177.124.000
2.441
1.00
66.372.&4«
.37
432.349.206
355.766.604
17.042.358
16. 691. 335
351.02)
5.149,264
645.480
1.260.931
2.357.008
885.796
21 .852.640
107,255.073
10,570.806
4,243,747
4,995,059
5.222,319
3.896,797
6.046.717
6,198.112
1.835.803
9.143,450
9 .099 .387
10.653,431
9,394.820
5.367,607
7.572.338
13.014,674
27.392,039
63,499.623
18.109.611
45.244,956
SO. 221. 040
40.409.800
9.811.240
1968
199.793.000
3.304
1.00
660.045.911
529,653.952
18.415.005
18.131.1 77
239.828
5.274,946
7U.223
1.182.615
2.449.220
923,808
31 ,676,705
155. 60', 03-
12,576.266
5,380.174
6.775.178
6, 69'. 946
5,409.1; 1
8.257.C66
9.672.343
2.405,777
12.273, 130
14.058. 155
17,424,504
15.285.178
10,370,327
11,004,595
IK. 018. 226
36.552.940
87,077,150
27,739.804
77.2*5,516
90.070.855
74,970,068
15.100.787
1970
203.793.00C
3.466
l.OC
IN THOUSANDS
706. 33- .832
560.822.337
18.5-9.767
1B.276. 144
273,623
5.819.015
87H.776
1.439.282
2,592.123
908.334
34,1-9,358
155.604.386
13.057,362
5,306,24*
6.476.77C
6.537.772
5.637.7 rs
8.329.307
10.204.935
2,539.078
12.299.J2I
13.532.701
16.003. -05
15.484,661
7.961 .936
11.275.556
18.517.056
39.733.207
9J.266.904
29.360.297
85.174.919
99.104.484
84.120.212
14.984,272
197!
218.629.700
4.1C5
1.00
Cr 1967 t
897,399.600
714.962.500
19 .940.900
19.600.500
331 ,7CO
6, 36S. 700
892,600
1,503.400
2.841 ,100
1.12J, 900
43,261,300
201.011,000
15,015.000
6. 529. 500
8.250.500
8.131 <600
7.159.600
10,679,200
12,990.600
2.870,700
14.599. 300
16,642,200
23. 136. -00
21.324.500
12,046,400
15.025.000
23.96-.eOO
47.666.400
119.099.400
36)776.100
111.912.700
127.857.800
110, J35, 600
17,193.800
1980
2J4.208.000
4.765
1.00
93.320.000
.*0
1 .1 15.89S.300
881 ,560.000
19.855.300
19.449,200
406,100
7,284.300
970,100
1.755.000
3.210,200
1.348.800
52.4S6.600
240,193,300
17.134,700
7,536,000
9,704,000
9.43(1.000
8.699.500
13.030.100
16.041 ,000
3.234,200
16.173.700
23,374.500
27,352.400
2*. 040. 100
15.187.500
17.301.aOO
29.175.000
56.816,900
148.563.600
45.110.800
145.219.500
169.229.300
146.378.400
18.850.800
1985
251,355.700
5.420
I. 00
100.155.000
.40
1 .362.435.800
1.070.361 .900
20.704.000
20.236.500
465.300
7.96.1,800
1.089.200
1.371.800
3.452.200
1.550,000
63.741,700
285 ,86- ,800
19,249,500
8.544.500
11 .142.900
10. 797,800
10,431,900
15.612,300
1 9,446,900
17,932,700
28,402,500
33,367,300
33,al3,500
17,892.600
20.577,300
35,065,500
47.436.000
180.821 ,400
54,385,000
182.753.700
206.601,000
185.024.700
21,472. 200
1990
269.759.000
6.166
I. on
106.91 7.00C
.40
1.300. 309.200
21.055.500
533, ICO
B.713.20C
I. 223. 00?
1.996.400
3,712.500
1 ,731,300
77, -10,200
339.09'J. 'CO
21 ,62"!.20r
>68dtCOt
i2, 795. 303
12, 32', 300
12.509.200
18. 63-. 600
23.575,900
4,083.100
19. 882. IOC
34,512.100
39,973,900
41 ,784,900
2i.079.50C
24.472,800
42.145,300
80,039* 300
220,080.800
65.565.700
229.988.500
258.331.700
233,873.700
24.458.000
2000
306.782.00C
8,289
1 .OC
124,641,000
.41
1>97C. 733. 6CC
25.-9S.30C
24.78-.OOC
709.300
10.7I0.8CC
I. 57-, 300
2.33r.-00
4.362. 100
2.442,500
1 17.1I7.60C
492.557.JOC
28.070.90C
12.H43.30C
17.-33.30C
18.i3o.20C
2 7. 38 I. 100
3S.595.50C
5.29Q.JOC
25*017. -DC
52,3uO,10C
59.1'5,40C
65.70,3, TOG
30.237.80C
35.7J2.BOC
62.699.80C
116.398. 000
335.481.20C
98.040.200
368.579.200
406.360.000
J74.582.20C
31.777.700
2020
J99.01j.OOC
14.260
1.00
163.622.000
.41
4.347,216.000
4"., -57. 500
43.241,400
1. 2U.1DO
J6.Pl 1,500
J.t>0o»100
3, 09-, 700
5,75l ,200
4. 561, -00
2 5b » 40 •• ,OOC
I .02u.SC ' . '1C
22,501,000
32. 31 4 .900
50. Cl . ,000
39. 616,900
5', 774, 500
'8,190,500
8 ,'-CK,»00
49*05 1 .SOO
li5.375.2UO
1" 3 *81C » 300
61. 292, 500
134. 663.100
241 . 305 ,600
746.467,800
212.1 59,200
876.784,700
'(32. 716,100
879.295.900
53.420.200
-------
Table 6-2 lists SMSAs alphabetically by states. Table 6-3 lists the
Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas and indicates the constituent
counties as of January 7, 1972. The projections of demographic and eco-
nomic indicators, done by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Depart-
ment.of Commerce, were mac"> on the basis of SMSAs as they were defined
as of January 7, 1972.
The following SMSA designation differs from the official designation
of the Office of Management and Budget in one respect: SMSAs in the
New England States are officially defined on a township, rather than a
county basis; BEA projections for these New England SMSAs, however, are
based upon geographic areas which are defined on a whole-county basis.
Thus, for example, the Fitchburg-Leominster, Mass. SMSA and the
Worcester, Mass., SMSA are combined in the BEA projections into one area,
Worcester County, even though the Fitchburg-Leominster SMSA officially
includes several townships from another county (Middlesex), and portions
of Worcester County are not officially located in either SMSA.
57
-------
Z *
o z
U JE
« Z uJ »
O Z O Z
u. o — g
UJ
g
CO
CO
>-
tf < QC 3E
-!•- D UJ
I aJ 3 O
»- c i ac
a i z o
O ^ ttJ I
a i
!*J O « U
& u. I —
a •- *
— a x at
OC •« UJ O
03 1 r z
< u.
a
a: -
tx. ac
o o
U. U-
UJ Z — 4
-1 — »- • _I
-I X I 4 U.
> O Z u. »
0« 5 -0
« uj a x «
W it _J 4 _1
•« 4 uj — OL
i a.
<
a. »-
m. *n
o -o
o -•
in trt
o o • < -
* • O i/j O I
-< < Z 3 <
>- »- ^- < ID - Z
z z m»- i r z
< < D •- D O <
CQ
£
QL.
Q
UJ
5 I
o
00
in
CO
CO
•
CVJ
a>
ro
•—I UJ Q t/I _|
r D a t/i •- «
a _t oo z m
— o -j < u o
OJ o u. O X 3E.
i I a.
"»- 4 •
( t 1 ^
co • tr
5DEN GROVE. CALIF.
38 ANAHEIM-SANTA ANA.OA
6 BAKERSFIlLU. CALIF.
i<) FPESNU. CALIF.
:M, CALIF,
.NTURA, CALIF.
NO-ONTAHIO. CALIF
)9 LOS AN6FLES-LONO BEA
2 MODESTO. CALIF.
5 OXNAHO-Slm VALLEV-V
6 HIVEP.SIUt.SAN BERNAO
6 SACRAMENTO. CALIF.
u.
_i
«
w
>•
3 SALINAS.SE.ASJBE-MONTI
7 SAN OieCjO, CALIF.
u.
_j
<
u
g SAN FRANCIiCO-OAKLANC
9 SAN JOSt, CALIF.
ARIA-LOMPOC. CALI
1 SANTA BAPBAMA. SANTA >
5 SANTA CPU^, CALIF.
a o o
a j _j
u^ o o
<*> w
§..
< a o
Z uJ J
O > «
-J Z UJ
O uj D
-------
Table 6-2 (Continued) .
STATE
ILLINOIS
B.E.A SMS* CODE AND TITLE
CONTINUED
ILL.
))3 CHAMPAIGN.URBANA,
33E CHICAGO. ILL.
3*7 D»VENPORT-BOCK ISLANO-MOHNE. IOWA-ILL.
349 DECATUR. ILL.
448 PEORIA. ILL.
*67 ROCKFQRD. ILL.
471 ST. LOUIS. MO.-ILL.
490 SPRINGFIELD, ILL.
PAGE
9*
lot
126
132
348
39*
40Z
4*»
STATE B.E.A SMSA CODt AND TITLE
LOUISIANA CONTINUED
4S5 SHREVEPORT. LA.
PAGE
MAINE
940
939
LEWISTON-AUBURN, MAINE
MORTLAND-SOUTH PORTLAND. MAINE
25*
362
INDIAN'.
IOWA
KANSAS
309 ANDERSON, |HD. 3«
339 CINCINNATI, OHIO-KY.-IND. 108
359 EVANSVILLE. 1NU.-KY. l»»
367 FORT WAYNE, 1NU. 1"
372 GARY-HAMMOND-EAST CHICAGO. IND, U»
319 INDIANAPOLIS, IND. 212
529 LAFAYETTE-WEST LAFAYETTE, INO. 2(J8
410 LOUISVILLE, KY.-IND, 270
427 MUNCIE, IND. 306
48t SOUTH BEND, INO. **2
501 TEDRE HAUTE, INO. *68
332 CEDAR RAPIDS, IOWA 92
347 DAVENPORT-ROCK ISLAND-MOLINE, IOWA-ILL. 126
351 DES M01NES, IOWA 136
353 DUBUUUE, IOWA 140
443 OMAHA, NEBR.-IOWA 334
416 SIOUX CITY, lUxA-NEBR. »38
515 WATERLOO. IO»A *»6
392 KANSAS CITY, HO.-HANS. 226
504 70PEKA, KANS. *'*
511 WICHITA, KANS. S02
MARYLAND
317 BALTIMORE, MD.
513 WASHINGTON, C.C.-MO.-VA.
521 WILMINGTON. DEL.-N.J.-MD.
MASSACHUSETTS
934 BOSTON. MASS.
935 FALL RIVER-NEW BEDFORD, MASS.
936 PITTSFIELD. MASS.
937 SPRINGFIELD-CHKOPEE-HOLYOKE. MASS.
938 WORCESUR-HTCHBURG.LEOMINSTER, MASS.
MICHIGAN
310 ANN ANBOR, MICH.
552 BATTLE CREEK, M|CH.
319 BAY CITY, MICH.
352 DETROIT, MICH.
364 FLINT, MICH.
373 GRAND RAPIDS, MICH.
386 JACKSON, MICH.
391 KALAMA200, MICH,
398 LANSING-EAST LANSING, MICH.
428 MUSKEGON-MUSKEGON HEIGHTS, MICH.
469 SAGINAW, MICH.
503 TOLEDO. OHIO-MICH.
494
510
78
156
360
454
514
40
6U
62
133
162
Ian
214
224
2*6
30)1
398
472
KENTUCKY
MINNESOTA
339 CINCINNATI, OHIO-KY.-IND.
359 EVANSVILLE. INU.-KY.
3«3 HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND. W.VA..KY.-OHIO
404 LEXINGTON, KY.
410 LOUISVILLE. KY.-1NO.
5*3 OKENSBORO, KY.
ion
154
208
256
270
33«
354 DULUTH-SL'PtXIOR. MJNN.-WIS.
361 FARbO-MOORkHbAD. N.DAK.-MINN.
423 MJNNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL, MINN.
545 ROCHESTER. MINN.
142
158
296
390
LOUISIANA
MISSISSIPPI
551 ALEXANDRIA, LA.
318 BATON ROUGE. LA.
395 LAFAYETTE, LA.
396 LAKE CHAULES, LA.
425 MONROE. LA.
434 NEW ORLEANS. LA.
26
58
236
240
302
316
535
317
MISSOURI
BILOXl-OULFPORT, MISS.
JACKSON, MISS.
68
216
539 COLUMBIA, MO.
59
-------
Table 6-2 (Continued).
STATE B.C.A SMSA CODE AND TITLE
MISSOURI CONTINUED
392 KANSAS CITY. MO.'KANS.
470 ST. JOSEPH, MO.
471 ST. LOUIS, MO.-ILL.
491 SPRINGFIELD. MO.
PAGE
226
400
402
490
STATE
NEM YORK
563
466
497
B.E.A SMSA CODE ANI
CONTINUED
POUGHKEIPSIE, N.Y.
ROCHESTER, N.Y.
SYRACUSE. N.Y.
510 UTICA.ROME, N.Y.
PAGE
366
392
460
466
MONTANA
NEBRASKA
321 BILLINGS, MONT.
374 GREAT FALLS, MONT.
406 LINCOLN, NEBR.
443 OMAHA, NEBH.-IOwA
466 SIOUX CITY, lOWA'NEBR.
66
190
260
334
438
NORTH CAROLINA
311
336
355
362
S57
376
461
S22
ASHEVILLE. N.C. 44
CHARLOTTE, N.C. 100
DURHAM, N.C. 144
FAYETTEV1LLE, N.C. 160
GASTONIA. N.C. • 186
GREENSBORO-WINSTON-SALEM-HIGH POINT,N.C. 194
RALEIGH, N.C. 376
WILMINGTON. N.C. 512
NEVADA
NORTH DAKOTA
361 FARGO-MOOREHEAO, N.DAK..MINN.
400 LAS VEGAS, NEV.
463 RENO, NEV.
NEN HAMPSHIRE
941 MANCHESTER, N.H.
NEW JERSEY
305 ALLENTOWN-BETHLEHEM-EASTON. PA.-N.J.
313 ATLANTIC CITY, N.J.
389 JERSEY CITY, N.J.
560 LONG BRANCH.ASBUBY PARK, N.J.
561 NEW BRUNSMICK.PERTH AMBOY-SAYREVILLE, N.J.
436 NEWARK. N.J.
446 PATERSON-CLIFTON-PASSAIC. N.J.
449 PHILADELPHIA, PA..N.J.
505 TRENTON, N.J.
536 VINELANO-MILLVILLE'BRIDGETON, N.J.
521 WILMINGTON. DEL.-N.J.-MO.
NEW MEXICO
250
380
280
28
48
220
264
312
320
344
352
476
490
510
OHIO
OKLAHOMA
301 AKRON, OHIO
331 CANTON, OHIO
339 CINCINNATI, OHIO-KY,-IND.
340 CLEVELAND, OHIO
344 COLUMBUS, OHIO
348 DAYTON, OHIO
378 HAMILTON-MIDOLETOWN. OHIO
383 HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND, W.VA..KY..OHIO
405 LIMA, OHIO
408 LORA1N-ELYRIA, OHIO
530 MANSFIELD, OHIO
562 PARKEHSBURG.MAHIETTA, W.VA..OHIO
492 SPRINGFIELD, OHIO
495 STEUBENVILLE-WE1RTON, OH10.W.VA.
503 TOLEDO, OHlo-MICH.
517 WHEELING, W.VA.-OHIO
526 YOUNGSTOWN-WARHEN. OHIO
366 FORT SMITH, AUK,-OKLA,
402 LAkTON. OKLA.
442 OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLA.
507 TULSA, OKLA.
18
90
108
110
120
128
198
208
258
266
282
342
452
456
472
500
520
170
252
3J2
480
304 ALBUQUERQUE, N.MEX.
NEW YORK
OREGON
303 ALBANY-5CHCNECTADY-TROY, N.Y.
322 BINGHAM10N, N.Y.-PA.
330 BUFFALO, N.Y.
554 ELMIRA, N.Y.
435 NEW YORK, N.Y.
22
70
86
148
318
358 EUGENt-SPHlNGFIELD, OREG,
456 PORTLAND, OHEG.-WASH.
472 SALEM, OREG.
152
364
404
60
-------
Table 6-2 (Continued) .
STATE
PENNSYLVANIA
B.C.A SMSA CODE AND TITLE
30! ALLENTOhN-BETHLEHfM.EASTON. PA..N.J
306 AUTUONA, PA.
322 BINGHAMTON, N.Y..PA.
357 ERIE, PA.
37? HAHRI58URG. PA.
390 JOHNSTOWN, PA.
397 LANCASTtR. PA.
4'.PORT NEKS-HAMPTON, VA.
NORFOLK.PORTSMOUTH, VA.
PETEHiBuRG-HUPEwELL, VA.
RICHMOND, VA.
ROANOKE. VA.
WASHINGTON, D.C.-MD.-VA.
274
322
324
350
384
388
494
TENNESSEE
WASHINGTON
TEXAS
337 CHATTANOOGA, TENN.-GA.
394 KNOXVILLE. TENN.
418 MEMPHIS. TENN..AHK.
429 NASHVILLE. TENN.
300 ABILENE. TEX.
307 A«AR(LLO, TtX.
315 AUSUt, lit.
320 BEAUMONT-POUT AHTHUB-ORANOE TEX
329 «OWNSmL£-H««LIN&£N-SAN BENITO,' TEX
538 BBYAN.OJLLEOE STATION, TEX.
345 CORPUS CHRISM, TEX.
3*6 UALLAb, TtX.
J56 EL PAbO. rtx.
368 FORT BUPTH. TEX.
3M QALVESTON.IEXAS CITY. TEX.
382 HOISTOM, rtx.
558 KILLEtN-TEMPLE. TEX.
ill LAREUo. TtX.
»12 LUBBOCK, TtX.
532 MCALLEN.PHARH.iOJNBURa, TEX.
102
232
288
310
16
32
52
64
82
84
122
124
146
174
182
206
230
248
272
284
456
564
NEST VIRGINIA
335
383
562
WISCONSIN
PORTLAND, OHEG.-KASH.
RICHLAND.KtNNEfclCK. WASH.
•~~~'«'~'*f"C"i\.IVt HA
484 SEATTLE-EvtRETT, WASH.
489 SPOKANE, WASH.
498 TACOMA, WASH,
570 YAKIMA, WASH.
CHARLESTON, ».VA.
HUNTINOTON-ASHLAND. H.VA,.Ky..OHIO
... PARK£«SBURo.MAfl|ETTA, W.VA..OHIO
495 STEUBENVILLE-KEIRTON. OHIolw.v*
517 WHEELING, W.VA..OH10
537 APPLETON-OSHKOSH. MIS.
354 DULUTI.-SUPERIOH. HINN..WI&.
37} GR££N SAY, w|i. *
393 KENOSHA, wis.
364
382
432
446
462
516
98
208
342
456
500
42
142
192
228
61
-------
Table 6-2 (Continued).
STATE B.E.A SMSA CODE AND TITLE
WISCONSIN CONTINUED
541 LA CROSSEi WlSi
415 MADISON, MIS.
422 MILWAU
-------
Table 6-3. COUNTY COMPOSITION OF SMSAs LISTED IN BEA CODE NUMBER ORDER
300 ABILENE, TEX.
301
302
303
313 ATLANTIC CITY, N.J.
30*
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
JONES
TAYLOR
AKRQN, OHIO
PORTAGE
SUMMIT
ALBANY, GA.
DOUGHERTY
ALBANY-SCHENECTAOY-TROY, N.Y.
ALBANY
RENSSELAER
SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.
BERNALILLO
ALLENTOWN-BETHLEHEM-EASTON, PA,
WARREN
LEHIGH
NORTHAMPTON
ALTOONA, PA.
BLAIR
AMARILLO, TEX.
POTTER
RANDALL
ANAHEIM. SANTA ANA-GARDEN GROVE,
ORANGE
ANDERSON, IND.
MADISON
ANN ARBOR, MICH.
WASHTENAW
ASHEVILLE, N.C.
TEX.
TEX,
OHIO
OHIO
GA.
N.Y,
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
ATLANTIC
314 AUGUSTA, GA.-S.C.
AIKEN
RICHMOND
315 AUSTIN, TEX.
TRAVIS
316 BAKERSFIELD. CAL.
KERN
317 BALTIMORE* MD.
ANNE ARUNDEL
BALTIMORE
N.J.
s.c.
GA.
TEX.
CAL.
MD.
MD.
BALTIMORE (INDEPENDENT CITY) Mol
N.M.
-N.J.
N.J.
PA.
PA.
PA.
TEX.
TEX.
CAL.
CAL.
IND.
MICH.
CARROLL
HARFORD
HOWARD
318 BATON ROUGE, LA.
EAST BATON ROUGE
319 BAY CITY. MICH,
BAY
320 BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR-ORANGE,
JEFFERSON
ORANGE
321 BILLINGS, MONT.
YELLOWSTONE
322 BINGHAMTON, N.Y. -PA.
BPOOME
TIOGA
SUSUUEHANNA
3Z3 BIRMINGHAM, ALA.
JEFFERSON
SHELBY
WALKER
MD,
•MD.
MD.
LA.
MICH.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
MONT.
N.Y,
N.Y.
PA.
ALA.
Al A.
**i. M .
ALA.
BUNCOMBE
312 ATLANTA, GA.
CLAYTON
COPB
GWINETT
DEKALB « FULTON
N.C,
GA.
GA.
GA.
GA.
324
BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL, ILL.
MCLEAN
ILL,
63
-------
Table 6-3 (Continued),
325
329
330
331
33Z
333
33*
335
336
337
338
339
BOISE C^TY, IDA.
ADA
BROWN5VILLE-HARLINGEN.SAN
CAMERON
BUFFALO. N.Y.
ERIE
NIA(»ARA
CANTON, OHIO
STARK
CEDAR RAPIDS, IA,
LINN
CHAMPA I GN-UPBANA, ILL.
CHAMPAIGN
CHARLESTON, S.C.
BERKELEY
CHAHLESTON
CHARLESTON, W.VA.
FAYETTE
KANAWHA
CHARLOTTE, N.C.
MfCKLtNBUfcG
UNION
CHATTANOOGA, TENN.-GA.
HAMILTON
WALKER
CHICAGO, ILL.
LAKE
COOK
DU PAGE
KANE
LAKE
MCHENRY
WILL
CINCINNATI, OHlO-KY.-IND.
CLFRMQNT
HAMILTON
WARREN
DfARbORN
IDA.
BFNITO, TEX.
TEX.
N.Y.
N.Y.
OHIO
IOWA
ILL.
S.C.
S.C.
W.VA.
W.VA.
N.C.
N.C.
TENN.
GA.
IND.
ILL.
ILL.
ILL.
ILL.
ILL.
ILL.
OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
IND.
BOONE
CAMPBELL
KENTON
340 CLEVELAND, OHIO
CUYAHQGA
GEAUGA
LAKE
MEDINA
341 COLORADO SPRINGS, COLO.
EL PASO
342 COLUMBIA, S.C.
LEXINGTON
RICHLAND
343 COLUMBUS, GA.-ALA.
CHATTAHOOCHEE
MUSCOGEE
RUSSELL
344 COLUMBUS, OHIO
DELAWARE
FRANKLIN
PICKAWAY
345 CORPUS CHRIST1, TEX.
NUECES
SAN PATRICIO
3*6 DALLAS, TEX.
COLLIN
DALLAS
DENTON
ELLIS
KAUFMAN
ROCKWALL
347 DAVENPORT-ROCK ISLAND-MOLINE,
HENRY
ROCK ISLAND
SCOTT
348 DAYTON, OHIO
GRFENE
MIAMI
MONTGOMERY
PREBLE
349 DECATUR, ILL.
MACON
KY.
KY.
KY.
OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
COLO.
S.C.
S.C.
GA.
GA. '
ALA.
OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
IA.-ILL.
ILL.
ILL.
IOWA
OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
ILL.
64
-------
Table 6-3 (Continued).
390 DENVER• COLO.
36* FLINT. MICH.
391
992
393
39«
399
396
397
398
399
361
362
ADAMS
ARAPAHOE
BOULDER
DENVER
JEFFERSON
DES MOINES, IA.
POLK
DETROIT, MICH.
MACOMB
OAKLAND
WAYNE
DUBUOUE, I A.
DUBUOUE
DULUTH-SUPERIOR, MINN.-WISC.
DOUGLAS
ST. LOUIS
DURHAM, N.C.
DURHAM
ORANGE
EL PASO, TEX.
EL PASO
ERIE. PA.
ERIE
EUGENE-SPRINGFIELD, ORE.
LANE
EVANSVILLE, IND.-KY.
VANDERBURGH
WARRICK
HENDERSON
FARGO-MOORHFAD, N.D.-MINN.
CLAY
CASS
FAYETTEVILLE, N.C.
CUMBERLAND
COLO.
COLO.
COLO.
COLO.
COLO.
IOWA
MICH.
MICH.
MICH.
IOWA
wise.
MINN.
N.C.
N.C.
TEX.
PA.
ORE.
IND.
IND.
KY.
MINN.
N.D.
N.C.
GENESEE
LAPEER
369 FORT LAUDERDALE-HOLLYWOOD, FLA
BROWARD
366 FORT SMITH, ARK. -OKLA.
CRAWFORD
SEBASTIAN
LE FLORE
SEOUOYAH
367 FORT WAYNE, IND.
ALLEN
368 FORT WORTH, TEX.
JOHNSON
TARRANT
369 FRESNO, CAL.
FRESNO
370 GADSDEN, ALA.
ETOWAH
371 GALVESTON-TEXAS CITY, T£X.
GALVESTON
372 GARY-HAMMOND-EAST CHICAGO, IND.
LAKE
PORTER
373 GRAND RAPIDS, MICH.
KENT
OTTAWA
37* GREAT FALLS, MONT.
CASCADE
375 GREEN BAY, WISC.
BROWN
MICH.
MICH.
•
FLA.
ARK.
ARK.
OKLA.
OKLA.
IND.
TEX.
TEX.
CAL.
ALA.
TEX.
IND.
IND.
MICH.
MICH.
MONT.
wise.
376 GREENSBORO-MNSTON-SALEM-HIGH POINT. N.<
FORSYTH
GUILFQRD
RANDOLPH
YADKIN
N.C.
N.C.
N.C.
N.C.
65
-------
Table 6-3 (Continued).
377 GREENVILLE, S.C.
GREENVILLE
PICKENS
378 HAMILTON-MIDDLETOWN, OHJO
BUTLER
379 HARRISBURG, PA.
CUMBERLAND
DAUPHIN
PERRY
381 HONOLULU, HAWAII
HONOLULU
S.C.
S.C.
OHIO
PA.
PA.
PA.
HAWAII
388 JACKSONVILLE, FLA.
DUVAL
389 JERSEY CITY, N.J.
HUDSON
390 JOHNSTOWN, PA.
CAMBRIA
SOMERSET
39i KALAMAZOOi MICH.
KALAMAZOO
392 KANSAS CITY, MO.-KAN.
FLA.
N.J.
PA.
PA.
MICH.
io<:
383
384
385
386
387
MUU5TUN, TEX.
8RAZORIA
FORT BEND
HARRIS
LIBERTY
MONTGOMERY
HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND,
LAWRENCE
CABELL
WAYNE
BOYD
HUNTSVILLE, ALA.
LIMESTONE
MADISON
INDIANAPOLIS, IND.
BOONE
HAMILTON
HANCOCK
HENDRICKS
JOHNSON
MARION
MORGAN
SHELBY
JACKSON, MICH,
JACKSON
JACKSON, MISS.
HINDS
RANK. IN
TEx.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
W.VA.-KY.-OHIO
OHIO
W.VA.
W.VA.
KY.
ALA.
ALA.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.
MICH,
MISS.
MISS.
CASS
CLAY
JACKSON
PLATTE
JOHNSON
WYANDOTTE
393 KENOSHA, wise.
KENOSHA
39* KNOXVILLEi TENN,
ANDERSON
BLOUNT
KNOX
395 LAFAYETTE* LA.
LAFAYETTE
396 LAKE CHARLES, LA.
CALCASIEU
397 LANCASTER. PA.
LANCASTER
398 LANSING-EAST LANSING, MICH.
CLINTON
EATON
INGHAM
399 LAREDO. TEX.
MO,
MO.
MO.
MO.
KAN.
KAN. '
wise.
TENN.
TENN.
TENN.
LA.
LA.
PA.
MICH.
MICH.
MICH.
WEBB
TEX.
66
-------
Table 6-3 (Continued).
400 LAS VEGAS. NEV.
418 MEMPHIS. TENN.-ARK.
402
404
405
406
4Q7
408
409
410
412
^U*****
LAWTON, 0*LA.
COMANCHE
LEXINGTON. KY.
FAYETTE
LIMA. OHIO
ALLEN
PUTNAM
VAN WERT
LINCOLN, NEB.
LANCASTER
LITTLE ROCK-NORTH LITTLE ROCK,
POL ASK I
SALINE
LORAIN-ELYRIA, OHIO
LORAIN
LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH, CAL.
LOS ANGELES
ORANGE
LOUISVILLE. KY.-INO.
CLARK
FLOYD
JEFFERSON
LUBBOCK, TEX.
LUB60CK
NEV.
OKLA.
KY.
OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
NEB.
ARK.
ARK.
ARK.
OHIO
CAL.
CAL.
IND.
IND.
KY.
•»t w
SHELBY
CRITTENDEN
420 MIAMI, FLA.
OADE
421 MIDLAND, TEX.
MIDLAND
422 MILWAUKEE, WISC.
MILWAUKEE
OZAUKEE
WASHINGTON
WAUKESHA
423 MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL, MINN.
ANOKA
DAKOTA
HENNEPJN
RAMSEY
WASHINGTON
424 MOBILE. ALA.
BALDWIN
MOBILE
425 MONROE. LA.
OIMCHJTA
426 MONTGOMERY, ALA.
ELMORE
MONTGOMERY
427 MUNCIE, IND.
DELAWARE
TENN.
ARK.
FLA.
TEX.
wise.
WISC.
WISC.
wise.
MINN.
MINN.
MINN.
MINN.
MINN.
ALA.
ALA.
LA.
ALA.
ALA.
IND.
413 LYNCHBURG. VA.
426 MUSKEGON-MUSKEGON HEIGHTS, MICH.
•
414
415
AMHERST
CAMPBELL
MACON, GA.
8JBB
HOUSTON
MADISON, WISC.
DANE
VA.
• " •
VA.
GA.
GA.
wise.
"U5KEOON
429 NASHVILLE. TENN.
DAVIDSON
SUMNER
WILSON
434 NEW ORLEANS, LA.
JEFFERSON
ORLEANS
ST. BERNARD
ST. TAMMANY
MICH.
'TENN.
TENN.
TENN.
LA.
LA.
f* .
LA.
LA.
67
-------
Table 6-3 (Continued).
435 NEW YORK, N.Y.
446 PATERSON-CLIFTON-PASSAIC, N.J.
NASSAU
ROCKLAND
SUFFOLK
WCSTCHESTFR
NEW YORK CITY (5 BOROUGHS)
BFRGEN
ESSEX
HUDSON
MIDDLESEX
MORRIS
PASSAIC
SOMERSET
UNION
436 NEWARK, N.J.
ESSEX
MOPRIS
UNION
437 NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON. VA.
YORK
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
VA.
BERGEN
PASSAIC
447 PENSACOLA, FLA.
ESCAMBIA
SANTA ROSA
448 PEORJA, ILL.
PEORIA
TAZEWELL
WOODFORD
449 PHILADELPHIA, PA. -N.J.
BURLINGTON
CAMOEN
GLOUCESTER
BUCKS
CHESTER
DELAWARE
MONTGOMERY
PHILADELPHIA
N.J.
N.J.
FLA.
FLA.
ILL.
ILL*
ILL.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
PA.
PA.
PA.
PA.
PA.
438 NORFOLK-VIRGINIA BEACH-PORTSMOUTH, VA.
VA?
CHESAPEAKE CITY
VIRGINIA BEACH
440 ODESSA, TEX.
ECTOP.
441 OODEN, UTAH
WEBER
TEX.
UTAH
450 PHOENIX, ARIZ,
MARICOPA
451 PINE BLUFF, ARK.
JEFFERSON
452 PITTSBURGH, PA.
•45 OXNAPD-SIMI VALLEY-VENTURA, CALIF,
VENTURA CAL.
PUEBLO
460 RACINE. WISC.
RACINE
ARIZ.
ARK*
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLA.
CANADIAN
CLEVELAND
OKLAHOMA
OMAHA. NEB.-IA.
POTTAWATTAMII
DOUGLAS
SARPY
ORLANDO, FLA.
OPANGE
SfMINOLE
OKLA,
OKLA.
OKLA.
IOWA
NEP.
NEB.
FLA.
FLA.
ALLEGHENY
BEAVER
WASHINGTON
WESTMORELAND
456 PORTLAND, ORE. -WASH.
CLARK
CLACKAMAS
MULTNOMAH
WASHINGTON
456 PROVO-OREM, UTAH
UTAH
459 PUEBLO, COLO.
PA.
PA.
PA.
PA.
WASH.
ORE.
ORE.
ORE.
UTAH
COLO.
wise.
68
-------
Table 6-3 (Continued).
46) RALEIGH, N.C.
472 SALEM, ORE.
462
463
464
465
466
467
466
"Hi^fc
READING, PA.
BERKS
RENO, NEV.
WASHOE
RICHMOND, VA.
CHESTERFIELD
HANOVER
HENRI co
ROANOKE, VA.
ROANOKE
ROCHESTER, N.Y.
LIVINGSTON
MONROE
ORLEANS
WAYNE
ROCKFORD, ILL.
BOONE
WJNNEBAGo
SACRAMENTO. CAL.
PLACER
SACRAMENTO
YOLO
N.C.
PA.
NEV.
VA.
VA.
VA.
v n A
VA.
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
ILL.
ILL.
CAL.
CAL.
CAL.
MARION
'POLK
473 SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
DAVIS
SALT LAKE
474 SAN ANQELO, TEX.
TOM GREEN
475 SAN ANTONIO, TEX.
BEXAR
GUADALUPE
ORE.
ORE.
UTAH
UTAH
TEX,
TEX.
TEX.
476 RIVERSIDE-SAN BERNARDINO-ONTARIO, CALIF
RIVERSIDE
SAN BERNARDINO
477 SAN DIEGO, CAL.
SAN DIEGO
478 SAN FRANCISCO-OAKLAND, CAL.
ALAMEDA
CONTRA COSTA
MARIN
SAN FRANCTSCO
SAN MATED
SOLANQ
479 SAN JOSE, CAL.
CAL.
CAL.
CAL.
CAL.
CAL,
CAL.
CAL.
CAL.
CAL.
SANTA CLARA
469 SAGINAW, MICH.
SAGINAW
470 ST. JOSEPH, MO.
BUCHANAN
471 ST. LOUIS, MO.-ILL.
MADISON
ST. CLAIR
FRANKLIN
JEFFERSON
ST. CHARLES
ST. LOUIS
ST. LOUIS (INDEPENDENT CITY)
CAL,
MICH.
461
SANTA BARbARA-SANTA MAHIA-LOMP0C, CALIF.
SANTA BARBARA CAL.
MO.
ILL.
ILL.
MO.
MO.
MO!
MO.
482 SAVANNAH, GA.
CHATHAM
483 SCRANTON, PA.
LACKAWANNA
484 SEATTLE-EVERETT, WASH.
KING
SNOHOMISH
GA.
PA.
WASH.
WASH.
69
-------
Table 6-3 (Continued) .
485 SHREVEPORT, LA.
500 TAMPA-5T. PETERSBURG, FLA.
466
487
468
489
490
491
492
495
496
497
498
499
BOSSIER
CADDO
SIOUX CITY, IA.-NEB,
WOODBURY
DAKOTA
sioux FALLS, S.D.
MINNEHAHA
SOUTH BEND, IND.
MARSHALL
ST. JOSEPH
SPOKANE, WASH.
SPOKANE
SPRINGFIELD, ILL.
SANGAMON
SPRINGFIELD, MO.
GREENE
SPRINGFIELD, OHIO
CLARK
STEUBENVILLE-WEIRTON,
JEFFERSON
BROOKE
HANCOCK
STOCKTON, CAL.
SAN JOAOUIN
SYRACUSE, N.Y.
MADISON
ONONDAGA
OSWEGO
TACOMA, WASH.
PIERCE
TALLAHASSEE. FLA.
LEON
LA.
LA.
IOWA
NEB.
S.D.
IND.
IND.
WASH.
ILL.
MO.
OHIO
OHIO-W.VA.
OHIO
W.VA.
W.VA.
CAL.
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
WASH.
Fl A .
HILLSBOROUGH
PINELLAS
501 TERRE HAUTE, IND.
CLAY
SULLIVAN
VERMILLION
VIGO
502 TEXARKANA, TEX. -ARK.
MILLER
BOWIE
503 TOLEDO. OHIO-MICH.
MONROE
LUCAS
WOOD
504 TOPEKA, KAN.
SHAWNEE
505 TRENTON, N.J.
MERCER
506 TUCSON, ARIZ.
PJMA
507 TULSA, OKLA.
CREEK
05AGE
TULSA
508 TUSCALOOSA, ALA.
TUSCAL005A
509 TYLER, TEX.
SMITH
510 UTICA-ROME, N.Y.
HER* i HER
ONE I DA
511 VALLEJO-FAJRFIELD-NAPA, CALIF.
NAPA
SOLANO
FLA.
FLA.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.
ARK.
TEX.
MICH.
OHIO
OHIO
*
KAN.
N.J.
ARIZ.
OKLA.
OKLA.
OKLA.
ALA.
TEX.
N.Y.
N.Y.
CAL.
CAL.
70
-------
Table 6-3 (Continued).
512 WACO* TEX.
MC UENNAN
513 WASHINGTON, D.C.-MD.-VA,
MONTGOMERY
PRINCE GEORGES
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
ARLINGTON
FAIRFAX
LOUOOUN
PRINCE WILLIAM
515 WATERLOO, IA.
BLACK HAWK
516 WEST PALM BEACH, FLA.
PALM BEACH
517 WHEELING, W.VA..OHIO
BELMONT
JEFFERSON
BROOKE
HANCOCK
MARSHALL
OHIO
518 WICHITA, KAN.
BUTLER
SEDGWKK
519 WICHITA FALLS, TEX.
ARCHER
WICHITA
520 WILKES-BARRE-HAZLETON, PA,
LUZERNE
521 WILMINGTON, DEL.-N.J.-MD.
SALEM
NEW CASTLE
CECIL
522 WILMINGTON, N.C.
BRUNSWICK
NEW HANOVER
523 WINSTON-SALEM, N.C.
FORSYTH
525 YORK, PA.
1 tAI
MO.
MD
nw.
o.c.
VA.
VA.
VA.
VA.
ADAMS
YORK
526 YOUNGSTOWN.WARREN, OHIO
MAHONING
TRUMBULL
527 BURLINGTON, VT.
PA.
PA.
OHIO
OHIO
IOWA
FLA.
OHIO
OHIO
W.VA.
W.VA.
W.VA.
W.VA.
KAN.
KAN.
TEX,
TEX.
PA.
N.J.
DEL.
MD.
N.C.
N.C.
N.C.
CHITTENDEN
528 CHEYENNE, WYO.
LARAMIE
529 LAFAYETTE-WfST LAFAYETTE. IND.
TIPPECANOE
530 MANSFIELD. OHIO
RICHLAND
VT.
WYOM.
OHIO
531 ANCHORAGE. ALASKA
THIRD JUDICIAL DISTRICT ALASKA
532 MCALLEN-PHARR-EDINBURG, TEX.
HIDALGO TEX.
533 SALINAS-SEASIDE-MONTEREY.1 CALIF.
MONTEREY CAL.
534 SHERMAN-DENJSON, TEX.
GRAYSON TEX.
535 BILOXI-GULFPORT, MISS.
HARRISON Mjss%
536 VINELAND-MILLVILLE-BRIDGETON, N.J.
CUMBERLAND N.j.
537 APPLETON-OSHKOSH, WISCONSIN
CALUMET
OUTAGAMIE
WINNEBACiQ
wise.
wise.
wise.
71
-------
Table 6-3 (Continued).
538 BRYAN-COLLEGE STATJONt TEXAS
BRAZOS TEX,
939 COLUMBIA* MISSOURI
BOONE MO.
540 GAINESVILLE. FLORIDA
ALACHUA FLA.
541 LA CROSSEt WISCONSIN
LA CROSSE MISC.
542 MODESTO* CALIFORNIA
STANISLAUS CALIF,
543 OWENSBORO, KENTUCKY
DAVIES KY.
544 PETERSBURG-COLONIAL HEIGHTS-HOPEWELL. VA.
DINWIDDIE * PETERSBURG VA.
PRINCE GEORGE * HOPEWELL VA.
556 FORT MYERS, FLA.
LEE
557 GA5TON1A, N. C.
GASTON
556 KILLEEN-TEMPLE* TEXAS
BELL
CORYELL
FLA.
N.C.
TEX.
TEX.
559 LAKELAND-WINTER HAVEN, FLA.
POLK FLA.
560 LONG BRANCH-ASBURY PARK, N. J.
MONMOUTH N.J.
561 NEW BRUNSWICK-PERTH AMBQY-SAYREVILLE, N.J.
MIDDLESEX N.J.
562 PARKEHSBUKG-MARIETTA, W.VA..OHIO
WASHINGTON OHIO
WOOD W.VA.
545 ROCHESTER, MINNESOTA
OLMSTEAD
5*6 SANTA ROSA, CALIFORNIA
SONOMA
551 ALEXANDRIA, LA.
RAPIDES
552 BATTLE CREEK, MICH,
CALHOUN
553 DAYTONA BEACH, FLA.
VOLUSIA
554 ELMIRA, N. Y,
CHEMUNG
555 FLORENCE, ALA.
COLBERT
LAUDERDALE
MINN.
CALIF.
LA.
MJCH.
FLA.
N.Y.
ALA,
ALA.
563 POUGHKEEPSIE, N, Y.
DUTCHESS
564 RICHLAND-KENNEWICK, WASH.
BENTON
FRANKLIN
565 SANTA CRUZ, CAL.
SANTA CRUZ
567 SARASOTA, FLA.
SARASOTA
568 SPARTANBURG, S. C.
SPARTANBURG
569 WILLIAMSPORT, PA.
LYCOMING
570 YAK I MA, WASH.
YAKJMA
N.Y,
WASH.
WASH.
CAL.
FLA.
S.C.
PA.
WASH.
72
-------
Table 6-3 (Continued).
571 MELBOURNE-TITU5VILLE-COCOA, FLA.
BREVARO FLA.
930 BRIDGEPORT-NORWALK-STAMFORD-DANBURY, CONN
FAIRFIELD CONN.
931 NEW HAVEN-WATERBURY-MERJDEN, CONN.
NEW HAVEN CONN.
932 HARTFORD-NEW BRITAIN-BRISTOL, CONN.
HARTFORD CONN.
933 NORWICH-GROTON-NEW LONDON. CONN.
NEW LONDON CONN.
93* BOSTON. MASS.
ESSEX
MIDDLESEX
NORFOLK
PLYMOUTH
SUFFOLK
MASS.
MASS.
MASS.
MASS.
MASS.
935 FALL RIVER-NEW BEDFORD, MASS.
BRISTOL MASS.
936 PITTSFIELD, MASS.
BERKSHIRE
MASS.
937 SPRIN&FIELD-CHICOPEE-HOLYOKE, MASS.
HAMPDEN
HAMPSHIRE
MASS.
MASS.
938 WORCESTER-F I TCHBURG-LtOMI NSTER, MASS.
WORCESTER MASS.
939 PORTLAND-SOUTH PORTLAND, ME.
CUMBERLAND ME.
9*0 LEWISTON-AUBURN, ME.
ANDROSCOGGIN ME.
9*1 MANCHESTER-NASHUA, N.H.
HILLSBOROUGH N.H.
9*2 PROVIDENCE-WARWICK-PAWTUCKFT, R.J.
BRISTOL
KENT
PROVIDENCE
R.I.
R.I,
R.I,
73
-------
APPENDIX A - BASIS FOR INITIAL DESIGNATION CRITERIA
This Appendix provides the technical derivation of the initial desig-
nation criteria presented in Section 3 of this report.
A.I CARBON MONOXIDE
The variable exclusion criteria for carbon monoxide presented in Section
3 are derived by using the model for CO presented in Section 5 of these
guidelines. The criteria are in the form of a curve which specifies, for
a given local vehicle mix of light- versus heavy-duty vehicle emissions, a
critical CO concentration below which an SMSA can be excluded from consid-
eration as an AQMA, and above which the SMSA must be subjected to further
analysis using the techniques presented in Section 4 and 5 of this document.
The derivation of the criteria curve follows:
The CO model presented in Section 5 of this document is represented by
the three following equations:
0.8
FT =
FL
(B-b)
FU
FL + FU
. PL Gt
= PL GL
+ b
EL H
P, H
L
EL <
h PH
h pu
H
h PH
GH EH
GH EH + PS GS ES
(A-l)
(A-2)
(A-3)
100%
where: FT = Total future (1985) CO concentration
FL = Future concentration due to local traffic
FU = Future concentration due to urban emission
b = Background concentration
B = Baseline concentration (measured or estimated)
PL = Percent emission from light-duty vehicles (gross vehicle
weight < 6000 Ib)
75
-------
PH = Percent emission from other mobile sources (gross vehicle
weight > 6000 Ib)
P§ « Percent emission from stationary sources
G = Growth factor over the projection period, 6* f G
E = Expected ratio of 1985 emission to baseline emission for
a composite source.
G* = Growth factor for traffic on the local street of interest
The "future" air quality (FT) will be set equal to the CO standard, and
the light- versus heavy-duty vehicle mix will be varied for the local street
condition to yield corresponding critical baseline concentrations.
The following assumptions will be made in applying the model:
(a) Background concentration (b) = 1 ppm.
(b) The CO standard to be considered is the 8-hour standard of
9 ppm (= FT).
(c) The growth of mobile and stationary sources will be assumed
to be 5 percent annually (r) for urban areas. For a 1970
baseline, the projection period to 1985 is 15 years (n).
Thus, the growth factor is qiven by
G = (1 + r)n = (l + Q.05)15 = 2.08
Therefore, a 1970-1985 growth factor of 2.0 will be used for
all urban sources, so
GL = GH = Gs = 2.0
(d) Growth of local traffic (G* = 6(j) will be less than total
urban growth due to "saturation" of local streets with current
traffic; assume G* = G* =1.2
L H
76
-------
(e) The emission factor ratios from Table 5-1 will be used; no
control over stationary sources of CO will be assumed; thus
EL = 0.08
ER = 0.93
ES = i.o
(f) The percent -.ontribution of CO emissions from stationary
sources is assumed to be 20. The percent contribution of
CO emissions from light- and heavy-duty vehicles for the
local street case will be treated differently than for the
urban case. For the local street case (F. ), the P. and Pu
L L n
values will vary; for the urban case (F,,), assume P. = 70
and PH = 10. In either case, since PS = 20, P. + PH = 80.
For the local case, Equation (A-2) is used; inserting
the values assumed above yields
F P (1.2)(0.08) + P (1.2)(0.93)
0.8 (B-l) ' 80
FL = (B-i)
P. (0.077) +
L
PU (0.89)
n
L 80 J
For the urban case, Equation (A-3) is used, yielding
FU (70)(2.0)(O.Q8) + (10)(2.0)(0.93) + (20)(2.0)(1 .0)
0.2 (B-l)-' 100
FU = (B-l)(0.140)
From Equation A-l ,
FT = FL + FU + b
Inserting the above values yields
9 = (B-l)
P, (0.077) + PH (0.89)
1
_J +
77
-------
or
R ~
]PL (0.077) + P (o.89)
80
Substituting varying values of PL and PH yields the corre-
sponding values of B given in Table A-l . From these values, the
criteria curve given as Finure 3 is derived.
There is no initial inclusion threshold for CO. As a result,
any area which is not automatically excluded must be subjected to
further analysis as indicated in Sections 4 and 5.
A. 2 TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICIPATES
Nationwide emissions of TSP are not expected to increase. The combina-
tion of SIP requirements for existing source emission reduction, attrition
of existing sources, and the requirement that new sources meet NSPS should
result in a continuing decrease in TSP emissions through 1985. Therefore,
areas in which all NAAQS for TSP are presently being met need not be desig-
nated as AQMAs for TSP.
There is no inclusion threshold for TSP other than the projected viola-
tion of a NAAQS in 1985. Those areas in which a "reasonable time" for
attainment of a secondary NAAQS for TSP extends beyond 1985 must be declared
AQMAs for TSP. For other areas currently exceeding NAAQS for TSP,. the ana-
lytical techniques presented in Section 5 may be used to project TSP
concentration to 1985.
A. 3 SULFUR OXIDES
Nationally, most SIP requirements for control of S02 in urban areas
have been implemented. Control methods for S0x emissions are not as advanced
as controls for TSP. Consequently, growth of SO sources may result in a net
78
-------
Table A-l. SOLUTIONS TO EQUATION
8
B = (VL (0.077) + PH (0.89)>y
L\ «° / -
Percent Contribution
of LDV Emissions to
Total Local Street
Vehicle Emissio.is
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PL
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72
80
+ 0.140
PH
80
72
64
56
48
40
32
24
16
8
0
+1
B
8.8
9.4
10.2
11.2
12.3
13.8
15.7
18.3
22.1
27.8
37.9
79
-------
increase of S0x emissions even though NSPS for S0v are applied to new
J\
sources. Therefore, an indicator of growth is contained in the exclusion
criteria for SO .
/\
If the product of the highest measured S02 concentration of each
averaging time and a growth factor based on projected SMSA total earnings
is less than any NAAQS for S02, the area may be excluded as an AQMA for S02.
Total earnings in the SMSA was selected as the best indicator of emission
growth potential that is readily available. The growth factor is computed
from
6 - (1 + r)n V85
T0~0~ " V.
D
Where
G = Relative growth factor
r = Growth rate, %/year
n = number of years between the base year and 1985
V85 = Value in dollars of total earnings in 1985
Vb = Value in dollars of total earnings in base year
The inclusion criteria for S02 are identical to those for TSP.
A.4 PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANTS
All areas for which transportation controls are required for oxidants
must be designated AQMAs for oxidants. Although Mobile Source Performance
Standards (MSPS) and NSPS for hydrocarbons will lower oxidant concentrations
below NAAQS by 1985 in some areas, other areas, particularly those with high
stationary source HC emissions, may have difficulty meeting NAAQS without
further HC emission control. It is therefore considered prudent to subject
areas requiring special HC emission control (i.e., transportation control
80
-------
areas) to the air quality maintenance analysis required following AQMA
designation.
An area may be excluded from AQMA designation if (1) it is not a
transportation control area for oxidants, and (2) measured peak hourly
oxidant concentration is less than twice the NAAQS for oxidants (0.16 ppm
3
or 320/xg/m ). This latter exclusion threshold is arrived at through the
following reasoning.
The combination of MSPS, NSPS, and growth is expected to result in
about a 55 per cent reduction in HC emission from the average metropolitan
area by 1985. Both Appendix J and proportional models indicate that a 55
per cent HC emission reduction should produce a 55 per cent oxidant concen-
tration reduction. Furthermore, the reduction in the HC/NO ratio, which is
X
the likely consequence of present and expected emission control regulations,
should reduce oxidant concentrations even more than predicted by Appendix J
or proportional modeling. It follows that an area presently exhibiting less
than double the NAAQS for oxidant should achieve flAAns by 1985 provided MSPS
and NSPS are effectively applied and enforced.
Areas which exhibit oxidant concentrations above 320 ^g/m3 but are not
subject to transportation controls may estimate 1985 oxidant concentration
using the methods presented in Section 5.
A.5 NITROGEN DIOXIDE
Future N02 concentrations were projected by EPA for all regions likely
to exceed N02 NAAQS. These projections were made in connection with .the re-
examination of the MSPS for NOX> The results of this analysis indicate that
NAAQS for N02 are threatened only in the Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, Den-
ver, and Wasatch Front AQCRs. Consequently, only the urbanized portions of
81
-------
APPENDIX B - EXAMPLES OF ANALYSES FOR A HYPOTHETICAL SMSA EMPLOYING THE
"BACK-UP" METHOD OF ESTIMATING EMISSIONS
This appendix presents example calculations for carbon monoxide, sulfur
dioxide, and hydrocarbons/photochemical oxidants. The hypothetical SMSA is
assumed to be located in a state which will be under a significant burden
and must resort to the Vack-up" method of calculating emissions allowed
after application of all SIP control strategies. As stated in Section 4 of
this guideline, however, the "preferred" method is to be employed in most
cases, rather than the "back-up" method. The "preferred" method is the
method used by the states in developing the control strategies for "example
regions", i.e., application of SIP regulations to all emissions, source by
source, to determine allowable emissions in 1975 (or 1977, if an extension
for attaining the NAAQS was granted). The "back-up" method is presented
here merely to demonstrate its use, but its use should be restricted to
those states which will be faced with a heavy burden in designating the air
quality maintenance areas. Before deciding to use the "back-up" method,
states should discuss the problems of using the "preferred" method with the
representative responsible for maintenance of standards in the appropriate
EPA Regional Office.
B.I. EXAMPLE 1 - CARBON MONOXIDE
1. Assume that the hypothetical SMSA has a current carbon monoxide air
quality of 30 ppm, second highest 8-hour average per year. Also assume
that the percent of local mobile source emissions contributed by light-
duty vehicles (LDV) is 80. This percentage is below the critical exclu-
sion concentration of 94 per cent shown on Figure 3-1. As a result of
83
-------
the 80 per cent assumption, the per cent of local mobile source emis-
sions contributed by heavy duty vehicles (HDV) would be 20 if the further
assumption is made that no stationary sources contribute carbon monoxide
in the local area around the samplers. Upon application of the initial
designation criteria found in Section 3 of the guideline, this air
quality does not qualify the area for automatic exclusion or inclusion
as an SMSA, since the exclusion cutoff value is 21 ppm for an 80 per cent
local mobile source emissions contribution by light-duty vehicles.
Therefore, emissions and air quality will have to be projected for the
area. Assume that the hypothetical area had the 1970 emissions of CO in
tons per year as shown in Table B-l.
The data from Table B-l are then entered in Columns A and B of
Table B-2 as shown.
2. Assume that the following annual growth rates were projected for the
hypothetical area (the 5-year (1970-1975) and 10-year (1975-1985) com-
pounded growth rates are also given).
Category Annual 5-year 10-year
Population 2.1% 11% 23%
Total earnings 4.5% 25% 55%
Manufacturing earnings 4.1% 22% 50%
3. Assume for the hypothetical area that new power plants would contribute
an additional 300 tons of CO per year in 1975.
4. Place the proper emission reduction factors from Table 4-2 in Column C.
5. The growth factor for 1970-1975 is inserted in Column C-l. This factor
is obtained from the 5-year demographic-economic parameters, and is
expressed as the ratio of the 1975 value to the 1970 value (i.e., 25 per
cent is expressed as 1.25).
84
-------
Table 8-1. 1970 EMISSIONS OF CO FOR HYPOTHETICAL SMSA
SOURCE
Fuel combustion
Power plants
Point sources excluding power plants
Area sources
Subtotal
Industrial point sources
Solid waste disposal
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Transportation
LDV
HDV
Subtotal
Miscellaneous
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Total
CO EMISSIONS (Tons/year)
1,200
400
400
2,000
7,000
100
1,900
2,000
755,000
95.000
850,000
500
500
1,000
862,000
85
-------
Table B-2. EMISSION PROJECTION CALCULATION TABLE FOR CARBON MONOXIDE
00
A
Source
class
Fuel combustion
Power plants
Point sources (excl
Area sources
Subtotal
B C
Reduction
1970 factors
emissions (Table 4-2)
1,200 1.0
pp) 400 1.0
400 1.0
2,000
Industrial point sources 7,000 0.10
Solid waste disposal
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Transportation
LDV
HDV
Subtotal
Miscellaneous
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Totals
100 0.52
1,900 0.88
2,000
755,000
95,000
850,000
500
500
1,000 1.00
862,000
C-l D E
Growth Growth
factor 1975 rate
(1975/1970) emissions (1985/1975-1)
1500
(=1200+300)
1.25 500
1.25 500
2,500 0.55
1.22 900R 0.50
1.11 57
1.11 1,840
1,900R 0.23
1.25 .1,250 0.55
F G
Emission 1985
factor emissions
adjustment G = 0(1 + EF
1.00 3,900R
0.40 1,100R
1.00 2,300R
83,000R
121,000K
204,000R
1.00 1,900R
212,000R
R-indicates roundinq.
-------
6. Column D is calculated for all cateqories except power plants and trans-
portation by taking the product of Columns B, C, and C-l . The 1975
power plant emissions are given by the product of Columns B and C, to
which is added the emissions from new power plants.
7. The appropriate 10-year growth rates are entered in Column E for all
categories except transportation; these rates are expressed as the ratio
of the 1985 value to the 1975 value, minus unity (one).
8. The appropriate emission factor adjustments are entered in Column F.
9. Column G is computed for all categories except transportation by the
given equation.
10. Transportation emissions are then calculated by Equation 4-1 from Part 4:
Q1985 = * «>base> GiEi
The growth rate for transportation emissions should be determined
from available data if such exist. If no such data exist, use the
growth rate for population. For the hypothetical area, this is 2.1
per cent. Therefore, G = (1 + 0.021)15 = 1.37. E values are found
in Table 5-1. For carbon monoxide, E.DV = 0.08; and EHDV = 0.93.
.*. Q85 = (755, 000)(1. 37)(0. 08) + (95,000)0 .37)(0. 93)
= 83,000 + 121,000 = 204,000 tons per year
11. Total Column G for a grand total of 212,000 tons per year for 1985
emissions for carbon monoxide.
12. Carbon monoxide concentrations are calculated by the method given in
section 5.2. Assume a growth factor G* for local street traffic of 1.0
if an actual value is not known.
F = F + F + b
87
-------
- O.S(B-b)
For the local area assume:
B = 30 ppm
b = 1 ppm
PL = 80.0
G*
bL = 1.0
EL = o.os
PH = 20.0
GH = !'°
EH = 0.93
•'. F. =0.8 (30-1) [gPJT-0)(0.8)' + 20 (1.01(0.93)
L L - *
= 0.8(29)
fe.4 + 18.61
[—Too—J
80 + 20
=5.8 ppm
For the entire urban area:
FU = 0.2(B-b)
Assume:
PHGHEH + PSGSES"
PL = 87.6
PH - 11.0 (Refers to 1970 percentages calculated
from Table B-2.)
Since stationary source emissions for 1985 have already been computed,
PSGSES = the ratl'° of 1985 stationary source emissions to total 1975
emissions or = 8,000/862,000 = 1%
GL = GH = 1-37 (=1970 to 1985 growth in population)
•'. F. = 0.2 (30-1) R87.6)(1.37(.Q8) + (11 .0)(1 .37)(0.93) + ll
u |_ ^ - - j
= 0.2(29)
FT ' FL
88
-------
= 5.8 +1.4 +1
= 8.2 ppm, second highest 8-hour average
B.I.1 Conclusion
Since this concentration is below the standard of 9 ppm, second highest
3-hour average, this SMSA would not be designated as an AQMA for CO.
B.2 EXAMPLE 2 - SULFUR DIOVIDE
1. Assume that the hypothetical area has a most recent annual arithmetic
mean S02 concentration of 150/^.g/m3, but has been projected to attain
the S02 secondary standard before 1985. Since the current air quality
concentration for S02 is above even the primary standard, the area cannot
be automatically eliminated as an obvious non-problem area. Likewise,
since the attainment of the secondary NAAQS has been projected before
1985 due to the current control strategy, the area cannot be automati-
cally included as an obvious problem area. Consequently, the area must
be subjected to further analysis consisting of a projection of emissions
and air quality.
Note that if the current air quality concentration were below the
secondary NAAQS for SO,,, one would compute the product of the current
concentration and the relative growth in total earnings between the base
year and 1985 (the relative growth = 1 + the percentage growth rate over
the period of interest). If this product is still below the secondary
NAAQS for S02> the area could be automatically excluded as an AQMA; if
this product were above the secondary NAAQS for S0?, analysis would be
required for the area to determine if it should be selected as an AQMA-
Assume that the hypothetical area had 1970 emissions of S02 as shown
in Table B-3.
89
-------
Table B-3. 1970 EMISSIONS OF SULFUR DIOXIDE FOR HYPOTHETICAL SMSA
Source
Fuel combustion
Power plants
Point sources excluding power plants
Area sources
Subtotal
Industrial point sources
Solid waste disposal
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Transportation
LDV
Other mobile
Subtotal
Miscellaneous
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Total
Emissions (tons/year)
250,000
100,000
100,000
450,000
60,000
Neg
2,000
512,000
90
-------
The data from Table B-3 are entered into Columns A and B of Table B-4
as shown.
2. The same growth rates apply as in Example 1 above.
3. Assume for the hypothetical area that new power plants would contribute
an additional 20,000 tons per year in 1975. Of course, in actuality, it
is recommended that tfrs figure be obtained from consultation with electric
utility companies.
4. Place the proper emission reduction factors from Table 4-2 in Column C.
5. The growth for 1970-1975 obtained from the 5-year demographic-economic
parameters is inserted in Column C-l, expressed as the ratio of the 1975
value to the 1970 value (i.e., 25 per cent is expressed as 1.25). For
particulate matter and S02 from transportation sources, assume the same
growth as that of population.
6. Column D is calculated for all cateaories except power plants and trans-
portation by taking the product of Columns B, C, and C-l. The 1975 power
plant emissions are given by the product of Columns B and C, to which is
added the emission from new power plants.
7. The appropriate 10-year growth factors are entered in Column E of all
categories. For particulate matter and S02 from transportation, assume
the same growth as population. The growth factors here are expressed as
the ratio of the 1985 value to the 1975 value, minus unity (one).
8. The appropriate emission factor adjustments are entered in Column F.
9. Column G is computed for all categories by the given equation.
10. Column G is totalled, yielding 1985 S02 emissions of 406,000 tons per
year.
91
-------
Table B-4. EMISSION PROJECTION CALCULATION TABLE FOR SULFUR DIOXIDE
10
ro
A
Source
class
Fuel combustion
Power plants
Point sources b
Area sources
Subtotal
Industrial point sources
Solid waste disposal
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Transportation
LDV
HDV
Subtotal
Miscellaneous
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Totals
B
1970
emissions
C
Reduction
factors
(Table 4-2)
--
1
250,000
100,000
100,000
450,000
60,000
Neg
2,000
0
512,000
0.43
0.43
0.57
0.37
1.00
—
C-l
Growth
factor
(1975/1970)
_ « .
1.25
1.25
1.22
—
1.10
—
D E
Growth
1975 rate
emissions3 (1985/1975 -1)
130,000
(=110,000 + 20,000)
54,000R
54,000
238,000 0.55
27,000R 0.51
0
2,200 0.23
0
F
Emission
factor
adjustment
1.0
0.4
1.0
G
1985
emission
G - D(l +Efl
370,000
34,000
2,000
406,000
R - indicates rounding.
'Excluding power plants.
-------
11. S02 concentrations can now be calculated. Assume that the area has an
annual arithmetic mean S02 concentration of 150/xg/m3. For this example,
the incremental version of the Miller-Holzworth Model (Section 5.4.2)
will be used to project air quality. Assume that this hypothetical SMSA
has an area of 1000 square kilometers. The urbanized area is hypothesized
to be 400 square kilometers (_160 mi2) and it is assumed that 85 per cent
of the emissions are emitted within the urbanized area.
Therefore, the 1970 and 1985 emissions from the urbanized area,
together with the emission densities are:
1970 1985
SMSA (tons/year) 512,000 406,000
Urban area (tons/year 435,000 345,000
Urban area emission density
o
(tons/year-mi ) 2,720 2,160
The incremental Miller-Holzworth Model is given by:
AX = O.OllA Q [3.61H0'13 + §°OS _ (5.5 x IP"5) uH1'2^ (|M)
uH
or
AX = O.OllA Q (1600
For the hypothetical SMSA, assume the following conditions:
- a mean annual morning mixing height of 500 m = H
- a mean annual morning wind speed of 5 m/sec =/x
- a city size = \/400 km2 = 20 km = 12.4 mi = S
If 1600 S/u <0.471 H1'13, Equation B-2 is used.
1600 i2^ = 3970
93
-------
Q.471 H]-13= 0.471 C5QO)1-13- 0.471 (1100) = 518
Since 1600 S/u> 0.471 H1'13, Equation B-l is used.
A Q = (Q1985 - Wo* = 2'160 - 2.720 = -580 tons/yr-mi2
Inserting this AQ value in Equation B-l yields:
Ax =0.001 (-580) [3.61 (snn?0-13 . 800 (12.4) (5.5 x 1Q-5)(5)(500)1 '26.
15J(500) " [TO] - -I
= -6.38 [8.09 + 3. 97-1. 11 x 10""2]
= -6.38 (12.1)
= -77
'• X1985 = X1970 + Ax
= 150 - 77
o
= 73 ug/m annual arithmetic mean
12. To calculate the short-term concentrations, the log-normal model described
in Section 5.4.3.2 of the guideline is used. Assume that the most recent
standard geometric deviation of the hypothetical area is 2.05 for aver-
aging times of 3 hours, and the ratio of the annual maximum 3-hour concen-
tration to the mean concentration is 9.74. These values are underlined
for reference in Table 5-2. Therefore, the projected 3-hour maximum con-
centration is:
(73 yg/m3)(9.74) = 710 yg/m3
B.2.1 Conclusion
Since 710 Mg/m3 (3-hour maximum concentration) is less than the standard
of 1300 pg/,3 (second highest 3-hour value per year) the area would not be
designated as an AQMA for SO
94
-------
B.3 EXAMPLE 3 - HYDROCARBONS AND PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANTS
1. Assume that the area has a current photochemical oxidant concentration
of 350 ng/m , second highest 1-hour concentration per year, but the area
is not required to have a transportation control strategy. Therefore, it
cannot be automatically included or excluded based on the criteria pre-
sented in Section 3 of the guideline. The area must, therefore, be
subjected to further analysis consisting of an estimate of emissions and
air quality.
NOTE: The projection of emissions is not presented here, since it is done in
a fashion much the same as for carbon monoxide. Instead, it is assumed that
total 1970 hydrocarbon emissions were 170,000 tons per year and that 1985
hydrocarbon emissions are projected to be 100,000 tons per year.
2. Section 5 of the guideline presents the method for estimating photochemi-
cal oxidant concentrations. The expected emission reduction is given by
R = Ebase " E1985 .
expected T x 100/°
base
R = 170,000 - 100,000 Y ,nrw
expected 170,000
- 70'000 x 100%
170,000
= 41.2%
3. The required emission reduction is obtained from the plot in Appendix J
of 40 CFR Part 51 (published in the August 14, 1971 Federal Register ).
For a current photochemical oxidant concentration of 350 ^g/m3 (0.18 ppm),
second highest 1-hour concentration per year, Appendix J indicates that
a reduction of 60 percent is required.
95
-------
B.3.1 Conclusion - Since the required reduction of 60 percent is greater
than the expected reduction of 41.2, the area would be designated as an
AQMA for photochemical oxidants.
96
-------
APPENDIX C - LIST OF TASKS TO BE PERFORMED FOR MAINTENANCE OF STANDARDS
PROGRAM
This preliminary list of tasks is being provided for use by the states
to outline the work they must do in maintaining standards. The list can be
used to plan and schedule activities and to estimate manpower requirements.
A more detailed description of the work to be done will be provided in the
guidelines which will follow. This list of tasks, however, should not be
construed as a final outline of the plan.
The tasks involved can be partitioned into three major groups:
I. Submit areas designated as AQMAs.
II. Analyze emissions and air qualit.y--1975 to 1985.
m- Develop and submit a 10-year plan for air quality maintenance.
C.I SUBMIT AREAS DESIGNATED AS AQMAs
The objective of this group of tasks is to determine which SMSAs and
other areas meet the criteria for designation of AQMAs. The tasks are:
1. Assemble information on emission inventory, air quality, emission
regulations, status of compliance, and future power plant construc-
tion and fuel-use patterns.
2. Apply initial designation criteria, using procedures outlined in the
guidelines, to arrive at designated AQMAs.
3. Conduct public hearings in designated AQMAs.
4. Submit designated AQMAs to EPA with back-up documentation.
C.2 ANALYZE EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY - 1975 to 1985
The objective of this group of tasks is to determine which areas are
really problem areas with regard to maintaining standards and, thus, which
97
-------
areas require maintenance plans. This determination will be done by conduct-
ing an in-depth analysis of all the major factors that will affect air quality
in the period 1975 to 1985 using guidelines and models to be issued by EPA.
The tasks to be performed here have a different purpose than those per-
formed in Group I above. In the case of Group I tasks, it was only necessary
to identify AQMAs on the basis of specific designation criteria. However,
Group II tasks must go beyond that and quantitatively evaluate the air pollu-
tion problem in each AQUA for the period 1975 to 1985. The tasks are:
1. Determine baseline emissions for each pollutant for which the AQMA
was designated:
a. By source category.
b. By location as required by EPA models.
2. Identify principal sources (baseline and projected to 1985).
3. Acquire all necessary data to determine growth in emissions from
1975 to 1985 by source category and location for each pollutant.
This would involve acquiring data on:
a. Past trends.
b. Planned and projected economic and demographic growth.
c. Projected control technology.
d. Present and future regulations for new and existing sources.
e. Meteorological data.
4. Project a detailed emission inventory for 1975 to 1985 by source
category for each pollutant.
5. Project 1975 to 1985 air quality using calibrated diffusion models
to be provided by EPA. Use these models to:
98
-------
a. Analyze the impact of indirect sources.
b. Analyze the impact of new sources.
6. Determine which AQMAs are problem areas and require 10-year mainte-
nance plans. (A problem area is any portion of an AQMA in which the
above analysis indicates any standard may be violated at any time
between the date of attainment of the standard and 1985.)
C.3 DEVELOP AND SUBMIT A 10-YEAR PLAN FOR AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE
The objective of this group of tasks is to have the states develop and
submit a plan for maintenance of air quality in 1975 to 1985 in each AQMA
determined to be a problem area. The tasks to be performed by the states
can be inferred from the following outline of the content of the plan:
1 - Plan overview - Each state must prepare a plan overview document
summarizing the content of the plan; it should include the following:
a. A description of what the plan is about and why it is required,
so that lay citizens will have sufficient background knowledge
to participate in public hearings on the plan.
b. A list of documents that constitute the plan, with each document
or portion thereof identified according to the pollutant and
AQMA it deals with.
c. A list of any documents or portions of the SIP, as it will exist
immediately prior to the submission of the 10-year plan, that are
being revised, rescinded, or supplemented by the 10-year plan,
and a brief description of the salient features of such changes.
2- Required demonstrations
Each state must:
a. Certify that public hearings have been held pursuant to 40 CFR
51.4(d).
99
-------
b. Demonstrate the presence of legal authority to adopt and
implement the 10-year plan, pursuant to 40 CFR 51.11.
c. Provide documentation that the intergovernmental cooperation
required by 40 CFR 51.21(a) and 51.21(c) has been established.
Identify the local agencies pursuant to 40 CFR 51.21(b)(l) and
describe the distribution of responsibilities among state and
local agencies in preparing, submitting and implementing the
10-year plan.
d. Describe how the 10-year plan will provide for coordination of
air quality maintenance activities with other local environmental
protection activities including, but not limited to, the follow-
ing activities:
i. Water planning.
ii. Solid waste disposal planning.
iii. Comprehensive and environmental health planning.
iv. Review of transportation plans.
e. Describe the procedures designed to ensure that air quality main-
tenance activities and programs to be undertaken pursuant to the
10-year plan are coordinated with all other activities and pro-
grams being carried out in accordance with the applicable SIP.
f. Provide a description of the resources available to the state
and local agencies and the resources needed to carry out the
entire SIP during the ensuing 5-year period, pursuant to 40 CFR
51.20. This should include a general description of the staff
that will be required to prepare and implement the 10-year plan
for each AQMA, and a proposed budget showing the costs of all
100
-------
phases of the 10-year plan.
g. Provide timetables that specify the dates by which classes of
sources must comply with emission regulations. Also, provide
a timetable for attaining secondary standards in each AQMA for
each pollutant under consideration in the AQMA and, if the
timetable is different from the one already in the SIP, provide
an explanation of the difference.
h. Describe the procedures used for evaluating the air quality im-
plications of existing land use plans, transportation plans,
and zoning maps.
3. Maintenance strategies
a. The state shall provide a detailed description of the control
strategies to be used in the plan pursuant to 40 CFR 51.12(a)
through (d).
For each AQMA and for each problem pollutant within that
AQMA (as identified through analysis in Group II above), the
state shall describe the specific control strategy to be used,
and show how that strategy will maintain pollutant levels within
the standards.
b. For strategies that will have an area-wide impact on emissions,
the state shall provide a demonstration of that impact. All
National Ambient Air Quality Standards shall be considered.
Interrelationships among control strategies shall be discussed.
Needed legal authority that might be innovative, unusual, or
particularly difficult to obtain shall be described.
101
-------
c. The state shall provide results of all detailed analyses made
to determine growth of emission sources in 1975 to 1985 together
with the supporting rationale.
d. The state shall provide results of all detailed analyses made to
project emissions and air quality in 1975 to 1985, with the
rationale supporting the projections.
e. The strategies used in the plan may include the following con-
siderations as the state finds they are necessary and applicable:
i. Emission density zoninci--a regulatory system in which the
maximum legal rate of emissions of air pollutants from any
given land area is limited by the size of the area.
11. Emission allocations—a regulatory system in which the maxi-
mum legal rate of emissions of air pollutants from any given
political jurisdiction or other area is assigned by an allo-
cation procedure and suitable restrictions are imposed if an
area uses up its allocation.
iii. Transportation controls — including encouragement of mass
transit and strategies discussed in the Preamble to State
Implementation Plan Transportation Controls published in
the Federal Register on November 6, 1973, pp. 30606 through
30633.
iv. A methodology for controlling proposed new or modified
buildings, structures, facilities, or installation, includ-
ing municipal waste water treatment facilities.
v. Fuel and energy conservation objectives.
102
-------
vi. Regulatory and other types of strategies to integrate air
quality considerations into the development of area, point,
and line sources, including zoning and subdivision regula-
tions, sewer and water connection plans, rezoning and
building plans, capital improvement programming, and open
space reservations.
vii. Mechanisms to integrate air quality considerations into
revisions of local or regional development plans, and
mechanisms to ensure that development proceeds in accord-
ance with duly adopted plans.
viii. The effects of more restrictive emission controls and
new source performance standards.
ix. Application of emission charges.
x. Tighter control over construction activities, including
grading and burning.
xi. Any other pertinent strategies which are found to be neces-
sary and applicable.
103
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
If lease read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
EPA-450/4-74-001
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Guidelines for Designation of Air Quality
Maintenance Areas
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7 AUTHOR(S)
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO
9 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Control Programs Development Division
Standards Implementation Bra no
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
12 SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air and Water Programs
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
5. REPORT DATE
January 1974
OAQPS 1.2-016
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
First of a Series
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
Document was revised by letter on February 14, 1974,
changes were made in April 1974.
These corrections and format
These guidelines are to assist the states in identifying and proposing Air Quality
Maintenance Areas (AQMAs). They contain criteria which the states mav use in
designating such areas. If the states fail to designate such areas within the
timetable specified by EPA regulations, EPA shall use the criteria developed in the
guidelines to establish AQMAs.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
Jx^DENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
COSATI Field/Group
Distribution unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
MA.
21. NO. OF PAGES
114
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
N/A
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
104
------- |