EPA-450/4-74-001
                           (OAQPS No. 1.2-016 Revised)
     GUIDELINES FOR  AIR QUALITY
MAINTENANCE PLANNING AND ANALYSIS
                 VOLUME 1:
      DESIGNATION OF  AIR QUALITY
           MAINTENANCE AREAS
             U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
              Office of Air and Waste Management
           Office of A1r Quality Planning and Standards
              Research Triangle Park, N. C. 27711
                   September 1974

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                      OAQPS GUIDELINE SERIES

The guideline series of reports is being issued by the Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards (OAQPS) to provide information to state and local
air pollution control agencies; for example, to provide guidance on the
acquisition and processing of air qualit>  data and on the planning and
analysis requisite for the maintenance of air quality.  Reports published in
this series will be. available - as supplies permit - from the Air Pollution
Technical Information Center, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
27711; or, for a nominal fee, from the National Technical Information Ser-
vice,  5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22151.
                   Publication No. EPA-450/4-74-001
                      (OAQPS No. 1.2-016 Revised)
                         ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
                                  11

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                            FOREWORD

    This document is the first in a series comprising Guidelines for Air
Quality Maintenance  Planning and Analysis.  The intent of the series is to
provide State and local rqencies with information and guidance for the prepa-
ration of Air Quality  Maintenance Plans required under 40 CFR 51. The volumes
in this series are:

    Volume 1^   Designation of Air Quality Maintenance Areas
    Volume 2:  'Plan Preparation
    Volume 3:   Control Strategies
    Volume 4j   Land Use and Transportation Consideration
    Volume 5:   Case Studies irTPlan Development
    Volume 6:   Overview of Air Quality Maintenance Area Analysis
    Volume 1:   Projecting County Emissions
    Volume 8:   Computer-Assisted Area Source Emissions Gridding
                Procedure
    Volume 9j_   Evaluating Indirect Sources
    Volume 10:   Reviewing New Stationary Sources
    Volume l_h   Air  Quality Monitoring and  Data Analysis
    Volume 12:   Applying Atmospheric Simulation Models to Air Quality
                Maintenance Areas

    Additional volumes may be issued.

    All references to 40 CFR Part 51 in this document are to the regulations
as amended through July  1974.
                               111

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                               Preface

     This document was originally published on January 11, 1974, by the
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards as OAQPS No. 1.2-016.
Copies were distributed on January 15 to all Regional Offices and State
Air Pollution Control Agencies.  On January 23, 1974, errata were sent
out for pages 5-8, B-10, B-ll, C-5 and C-6.  Copies of the guideline, in-
cluding errata, were then distributed on February 8-15 to State A-95
Clearinghouses and those local air pollution control  agencies and metro-
politan and regional planning agencies which are located in SMSAs (S.tandard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas) with population over  500,000.
     Revisions to Sections 3 and 5 and Appendices A and B were distributed
to all  recipients of the guidelines on February 14, 1974.
     All  errata and revisions have been incorporated  into this final
edition of the guideline.
                                   IV

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                                CONTENTS

                                                                        PAGE
 List of Figures                                                         Vl11
 List of Tables                                                           1x
 1.   INTRODUCTION                                                         i
     1.1  BACKGROUND                                                      !
     1.2  EPA DESIGNATION OF AQMAs                                        3
     1.3  FUTURE GUIDELINES                                               5
         1.3.1  Guidelines for AQMA Analysis                             5
         1.3.2  Guidelines for Development of Air Quality Malnte-        K
                nance Plan
2.  GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS AND DISCUSSION                                  9
    2.1  CONSIDERATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS                            10
    2.2  CONSIDERATION OF OTHER FACTORS                                 14
    2.3  AQMA  BOUNDARY CHANGES                                          16
    2.4  WITHDRAWAL OF AQMA  DESIGNATION                                 16
    2.5  METROPOLITAN  AREAS  AND SPARSELY URBANIZED AREAS                 16
    2.6  ASSUMPTIONS CONCERNING FUEL AVAILABILITY                        17
    2.7  ASSUMPTIONS CONCERNING EMISSION AND AIR QUALITY BASELINES       17
    2.8   CONSIDERATION OF AIR QUALITY STANDARDS                          19
    2.9   PROJECTION REQUIREMENTS                                         19
   2.10 SUPPORTING INFORMATION                                          20
   2.11 PROCEDURAL REQUIREMENTS                                         21

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                                                                       PAGE

3.   INITIAL DESIGNATION CRITERIA                                        23

     3.1  ELIMINATION OF OBVIOUS NON-PROBLEM AREAS                       23

     3.2  INCLUSION OF OBVIOUS PROBLEM AREAS                             24

4.   METHODS FOR PROJECTING EMISSIONS                                    29

     4.1  PROJECTING 1975 EMISSIONS                                      32

         4.1.1  Preferred Method                                        32

         4.1.2  Back-up Method                                          33

                4.1.2.1  Step A - Determine 1970 Emissions              34

                4.1.2.2  Step B - Determine 1975 Power Plant            34
                         Emissions

                4.1.2.3  Step C - Determine 1975 Emissions from         35
                         Other Sources

                4.1.2.4  Step D - Project Growth Rates for 1970         35
                         to 1974

    4.2  PROJECTING 1985 EMISSIONS                                      37

5.   INSTRUCTIONS FOR MODELING AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS                41

    5.1  INTRODUCTION                                                   41

    5.2  ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR CARBON MONOXIDE                      41

    5.3  RELATING  OXIDANT CONCENTRATION TO HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS        45

    5.4  ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR OTHER POLLUTANTS - RELATING          46
         PROJECTED EMISSIONS  TO AIR QUALITY

         5.4.1   Proportional  Roll-Forward Model                          46

         5.4.2   Miller  - Holzworth Model                                47

         5.4.3   Estimating  Short-Term Concentrations for Sulfur         50
                Dioxide and Particulates

                5.4.3.1   Roll-Forward                                   50

                5.4.3.1   Log-Normal                                      50
                                  vi

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                                                                        PAGE

    5.5  COMPARISON OF PROJECTED AIR QUALITY WITH NAAQS                  51

6.  PROJECTIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS                   55

APPENDIX A.  BASIS FOR INITIAL DESIGNATION CRITERIA                      75

             A.I  CARBON MONOXIDE                                        75

             A.2  TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATES                           78

             A.3  SULFUR OXIDES                                          78

             A.4  PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANTS                                 80

             A.5  NITROGEN DIOXIDE                                       81

APPENDIX B.  EXAMPLES OF ANALYSES FOR A HYPOTHETICAL SMSA EMPLOYING      83
             THE "BACK-UP" METHOD OF ESTIMATING EMISSIONS

             B.I  EXAMPLE 1 - CARBON MONOXIDE                            83

                  B.I.I  Conclusion                                      89

             B.2  EXAMPLE 2 - SULFUR DIOXIDE                             89

                  B.2.1  Conclusion                                      94

             B.3  EXAMPLE 3 - HYDROCARBONS AND PHOTOCHEMICAL             95
                  OXIDANTS

                  B.3.1  Conclusion                                      96

APPENDIX C.  LIST OF TASKS TO BE PERFORMED FOR MAINTENANCE OF            97
             STANDARDS PROGRAM

             C.I  SUBMIT AREAS DESIGNATED AS AQMAs                       97

             C.2  ANALYZE EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY - 1975               97
                  to 1985

             C.3  DEVELOP AND SUBMIT A 10-YEAR PLAN FOR AIR              99
                  QUALITY MAINTENANCE
                                  VII

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                           LIST OF FIGURES

Figure No.                       Title                                 Page

   2-1            FLOW CHART FOR AQMA DESIGNATIONS                      9

   3~1            EXCLUSION  CRITERIA  FOR  CARBON MONOXIDE               25
                  AS  A FUNCTION OF THE DISTRIBUTION  OF
                  EMISSIONS  BETWEEN LIGHT AND HEAVY-DUTY
                  VEHICLES ON LOCAL STREETS
                 CALCULATION OF  1975 AND  1985 EMISSIONS
                                                                      31
                                 vm

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                          LIST OF TABLES
Table No.                      Title                                  Page

  1-1         MAINTENANCE OF AIR QUALITY STANDARDS ACTIVITY             8
              SCHEDULE

  2-1         NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS                   19

  2-2         EXAMPLE SUMMARY OF AQMA DESIGNATIONS                     20

  3-1         AQCRs IN WHICH TRANSPORTATION CONTROL                    27
              STRATEGIES ARE REQUIRED

  4-1         EMISSION PROJECTION CALCULATIONS                         30

  4-2         EMISSION REDUCTION FACTORS                               36

  5-1         EMISSION FACTOR RATIOS                                   44

  5-2         RATIO OF EXPECTED ANNUAL MAXIMUM POLLUTANT                52
              CONCENTRATION  TO ARITHMETIC  MEAN CONCENTRATION
              FOR  VARIOUS AVERAGING TIMES  AND  STANDARD  GEOMETRIC
              DEVIATIONS

  6-1         POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT,  PERSONAL INCOME,  AND  EARNINGS     56
              BY INDUSTRY, HISTORICAL  AND  PROJECTED.

  6-2         SMSAs LISTED ALPHABETICALLY  BY STATE                      58

  6-3         COUNTY COMPOSITION OF SMSAs  LISTED  IN BEA CODE           63
              NUMBER ORDER

  A-l         SOLUTIONS  TO EQUATION                                    79

  B-l         1970  EMISSIONS  OF  CARBON MONOXIDE FOR HYPOTHETICAL       85
              SMSA

  B-2         EMISSION PROJECTION  CALCULATION  TABLE                    86
              (CARBON MONOXIDE)

  B-3         1970  EMISSIONS  OF  SULFUR DIOXIDE FOR                      90
              HYPOTHETICAL SMSA

  B-4         EMISSION PROJECTION  CALCULATION TABLE                     92
              (SULFUR DIOXIDE)

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                DESIGNATION  OF  AIR  QUALITY MAINTENANCE AREAS

                             1.  INTRODUCTION
  1.1  BACKGROUND
      Pursuant to 40 CFR 51 12(e),  published on June 18, 1973 in
  the Federal Register. Volume 38, p. 15834,  all State Implementation
  Plans (SIPs) ". .  .  shall  identify those areas (counties,  urbanized
 areas, standard metropolitan statistical areas,  etc.)  which,
 due to current air quality and/or  projected qrowth rate, may have
 the potential  for  exceeding any National Ambient Air Quality
 Standard (NAAQS) within the subsequent 10-year period."  After
 areas  are identified  by the states,  EPA will  review these  desig-
 nations  and will prepare an official  list of  areas  by November  1974.
 The states  must then  perform a  thorough air quality analysis of
 each of  these areas;  if this analysis  shows that  an  area definitely
 will not  maintain a NAAQS during the  10-year  period, a plan must
 be  developed for that area  which demonstrates  that  the standard
 will be maintained.
     As stated in the preamble to the above-cited laws, EPA intends
 to  provide assistance to the states in  (1) identifying  the  areas
 (i.e. Air Quality Maintenance Areas - AQMAs) that may exceed a
national  standard within the next 10 years,  and (2) analyzing
the impact of qrowth  and development on air  quality in  such
problem areas.

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       These  present  guidelines are to assist the states in identify-
  ing  AQMAs and  do  not require as extensive an analysis as do the guide-
  lines  for analyzing the impact of growth, issued in the summer of 1974;
  guidelines  for preparation of plans for maintenance of air quality will
  be issued in late summer of 1974.  The overall timetable for plan
  development with regard to 40 CFR 51.12, paragraphs (e)  through (h)  is:
      1.  May 10, 1974 - State submission of identification of AQMAs.
      2.  November 1974 - EPA publication of list of AQMAs.
      3.  June 18, 1975 - State submission of:
          a.   Impact on air quality of projected growth in  AQMAs.
          b.   Where needed,  a plan  to prevent any National  Ambient.
              Air Quality Standards  from being  exceeded over  the
              10-year period from the date of plan submittal.
 A detailed timetable of  state and  EPA activity  over  the next 2 years
 for the maintenance  of standards program 1s presented 1n Table 1-1.
      EPA Intends that the guidelines be  easy to  follow yet still be
 sufficiently  responsive to  ensure that as many appropriate AQMAs as
 possible are  designated without over-designation.  Because of the
 complex  nature  of  the tasks involved and because of the many uncertain-
 ties  inherent in the projection of emissions and air quality, the
 guidelines are written to obtain some degree of consistency in the
 information to be submitted by the states while still allowing for
 innovative approaches.
     Prior to preparation of these guidelines,  EPA consulted with several
state  and local  air pollution control agencies  and regional  planning  com-

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missions.  EPA has attempted to Incorporate the advice thus obtained In
these guidelines.  Although every attempt has been made to anticipate and
address questions that may arise, Invariably unresolved Issues will occur.
When questions do arise, It 1s recommended that the appropriate EPA
Regional Office be contacted for guidance.
     The guidelines for AQMA designation are written for the state agency
responsible for designation.  In most cases this will be the state air
pollution control agency.  Because the Impact of the provisions for main-
tenance of standards will affect areas that are of concern to other
state agencies and local general purpose governments (such as those
responsible for regional land use and transportation planning, water
pollution control, etc.), 1t 1s advisable for the designating agency
to solicit comments from these agencies and Involve them 1n the desig-
nation process.
1.2  EPA DESIGNATION OF AQMAs
     As Indicated above, EPA will review the 11st of designated AQMAs
submitted by the states and will publish, after allowing for public
comment, an official  11st of AQMAs by November 1974.  Because of time
and manpower constraints, EPA will not be able to analyze 1n detail
areas of those states which do not submit any material  concerning AQMA
designations.   Consequently, EPA's designation for states that do not
offer a submission will be on the basis of Standard Metropolitan Sta-
tistical Areas (SMSAs) whose growth rates for particular demographic-
economic Indicators,  exceed a specified value.   In addition, the

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 present  value  of  the  indicator, current air quality, and the meteoro-
 logical  conditions that present a pollution potential would be incorporated
 in  EPA's criteria for AQMA designation.  In most cases, actual emissions
 of  air quality per se would not be projected by EPA.  The critical growth
 rates would be determined as follows:
     1.  Percentage growth rates for population and earnings by in-
         dustrial category have been obtained on an SMSA basis for
         the years 1975 to 1985.
     2.  SMSAs have been listed by regional priority classification for
         each  pollutant and ranked by percentage growth rate for popula-
         tion  and earnings by industrial category.
     3.  Using  best judgment, demographic-economic indicators would
         be selected  as representative of each pollutant-source
         category combination.
     4.  After  scrutiny of the spread of growth rates, critical growth
         rates would  be selected using best judgment for each demographic-
         economic indicator corresponding to a pollutant-source category
         combination.
     The critical  growth rates per demographic-economic indicator would
vary depending on the pollutant priority classification of the AQCR in
which the SMSA is located.   Thus,  a lower critical growth rate would
be specified for those areas having a currently significant air quality
problem (Priority I  regions)  than  for those areas  not having a currently
significant air quality problem (Priority III  regions).

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1.3   FUTURE  GUIDELINES
      In  addition  to  these guidelines on AQMA designation, EPA will
publish  other guidelines concerning the detailed analysis and pro-
jection  of air quality for the AQMAs and the development of a plan
for maintenance of NAAQS where needed.  These future guidelines are
briefly  discussed below.
1.3.1  Guidelines for AQMA Analysis
     The analysis step is intended to determine whether air quality
limits are indeed threatened and, if so, when, where, and which are
the principal sources involved.  The results of this analysis will be
useful in determining whether an SIP revision is necessary and
in formulating alternative plans if they are needed.
     Descriptive analysis would proceed along the general lines
described below concerning analytical  procedures for selecting
AQMAs, although the analysis would be  more  thorough.  In particular,
the following steps would be followed.
     1.  The quantity of emissions of  each  pollutant for which
         the AQPA is designated would  be projected  to 1985.   This
         projection would consider:
         a.   Present emissions  by source category and,  if possible,
             by location.
         b.   Expected growth  of each source  category based on  past
             trends  and highly probable future contingencies.
         c.   Present  and  highly probable future  emission restrictions
             of new and existing  sources.

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       2.   The  1985  projected emission  inventory would be allocated to
           the  area  in  the  least desirable* pattern that would be permit-
           ted  under present land-use restrictions.  This "scenario"
           is the one that would result in the most centralized locations
           of new sources of emissions.  Present zoning patterns and land-
           use  plans would be used in allocating new sources to the area.
      3.  Air  quality for 1985 would be estimated from the emission-pattern
          scenario, preferably usina a calibrated diffusion model.   If
          this is impossible in the time available,  a  less sophisticated
          model must be used.
      The models, emission factors,  growth projection  techniques,  etc.
 suitable for performing the analysis  will  be forthcoming  in the latter
 part of 1974.
 1'3'2  Guidelines  for  Development  of  Air  Quality  Maintenance Plans
      In late  spring or summer  of 1974,  EPA will issue guidelines to
 the states on  the  preparation  and submittal  of 10-year air  quality main-
 tenance plans.  These  plans, which will be due on June 18,  1975, will
 pertain only to  portions of states designated as AQMAs by the Admini-
 strator in  November 1974.  The guidelines will be organized  around four
 subject areas.  The first subject area relates to the mechanics of pre-
 paring  and  implementing the plans.   Topics ranging from plan format to
 procedures  for categorizing emission sources will be covered.  The
 second  subject area deals with the  evaluation of the air quality
*Least desirable from an air quality maintenance standpoint.

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implications of local land-use and transportation plans.   It may be
discovered 1n some AQMAs that growth plans are incompatible with air
quality maintenance and will need to be revised.  The third subject area
will include a list of maintenance strategies.  Emission  allocations,
transportation controls, fuel and energy conservation measures, and other
strategies will be discussed, along with procedures to quantitatively
estimate their impact on air quality.  The final subject  area will cover
the coordination of air quality maintenance plans with other environ-
mental planning activities such as water quality planning and the review
of environmental Impact statements.

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c_ EPA Issues AQMA Guidelines for Designating AQMAs
2
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s States Submit Areas to be Designated as AQMAs
tPA Begins Revisions of State Designations and Proposed Designations
tor btates hailing to Submit AQI^A Material
t
! EPA Announces Hearings on its Proposed Designation
c, EPA Issues Analysis Guidelines to States
EPA Holds Hearings on its Designations
EPA Issues Plan Development Guidelines to States; Proposes
«/> Reas^on Same in Federal Register; Brief Regional Offices
on Guidelines
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""" Federal Register
=• EPA Publishes Final List of AQMAs
a
•^ Draft Plan Completed by States
33 States Announce Hearings; Distribute Plans
2 States Hold Hearings
0 States Submit Plans to EPA
E>A Starts Uork on Plans for States that Fail to Submit
c_, Appro vable Plans
C/)
^ EPA Announces Approval /Disapproval of State Plans
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Submit Approvable Plans
^ EPA Holds Hearings on Own Plans
EPA Promulgates Plans for States that have not Submitted Plans
3
8

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              2.  GENERAL INSTRUCTIONS AND DISCUSSION


     The general approach that this guideline presents is depicted in

Figure 2-1; the numbers in parentheses refer to the sections of the guide-

line in which that item is described:


                                all  SMSAs
   SMSAs  automatically^
   excluded as  AQMAs
  SMSAs excluded
  as AQMAs
Apply initial
 designation
  criteria
     (3)
JSMSAs automatically
"included as AQMAs
                                        SMSAs  neither automatically
                                        excluded or  included
                              Predict 1985
                             emissions  (4)
                                    1
                              Predict 1985
                             air quality  (5)
                                    1
Determine if
 NAAQSs are
 maintained
 SMSAs included
"as AQMAs
              Figure 2-1.  Flow Chart for AQMA designation

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 2.1  CONSIDERATION OF GEOGRAPHICAL AREAS
      There appears to be a need to specify which areas, as a minimum,
 should be analyzed In determining which areas should be designated
 as AQMAs.  The areas selected are the SMSAs as defined by the Office
 of Management and Budget (formerly the Bureau of the Budget).  The
 reasons for choosing SMSAs are listed below:
      1.  SMSAs historically exhibit higher growth rates of population
          than non-SMSA areas.
      2.  SMSAs exhibit the highest concentrations of population and
          Industry.
      3.  Projections  of population and economic  indicators  are  avail-
          able on  an  SMSA basis.
      4.  Areas of SMSAs  change with  time as  population  density  Increases,
          facilitating future changes  in the  designation of AQMAs.
      5.  SMSAs account  for  roughly 70  percent of  the nation's population,
          but  only about  10  percent of  the total land areas.
      The  SMSA,  alone  or  in  its entirety, however, may not always be
a desirable geographic area for designation  as an AQMA.  For instance,
projections of emissions for cities, counties, or townships within the
SMSA may be possible  to calculate, in which  case it would be desirable
to designate these as sub-SMSA areas.  In other cases, the projected growth
in emissions may be expected to occur around the fringe of the SMSA, 1n
which case the designation may be more desirable 1f 1t includes that
fringe area in addition to the SMSA, in whole or in part.
                                  10

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       Some  consideration should be given to the difficulty of the actual
 designation and management of control programs within an AQMA,  It is
 easier to  designate by the names of the existing areas (political or
 non-political) than to delineate an area by listing roads, rivers,
 other topographical features, or latitude-longitude coordinates that
 constitute the boundaries of the area.  Designation by currently
 defined areas, however, does not mean that the subsequent detailed
 analysis of the AQMA and possible control  strategy must apply to the
 entire AQMA as originally designated-the  analysis and plan  can be
 restricted to selected problem areas  within  the AQMA.   On the other
 hand, one should  be aware  that designated  areas have been referenced
 in the proposed regulations  for review of  indirect sources in all  but
 three states  (38  F.R.  29893,  Federal  Register  of  October  30,  1973).
 If the regulation  is promulgated  as proposed,  the size  of facilities
 that would  be  exempt from  review  will  be smaller  in the designated
 areas  (AQMAs)  than  in  the  non-designated areas.   Until  EPA publishes
 the  list of AQMAs  in November 1974, all SMSAs would, for  purposes of
 the  proposed indirect  source review regulation, be considered designated
 areas.
     In addition, one  should be aware of possible relationships between
 the designated AQMAs and the areas to be chosen under the forthcoming
 regulations concerning significant deterioration.   For instance, if
the significant deterioration regulations provide  that  some (probably
urban) areas are permitted to deteriorate up  to the secondary national
                                 11

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 ambient air quality standard, these areas will probably be the
 same areas as the AQMAs.  Therefore, 1t might be appropriate to designate
 an area large enough to allow for the proper amount of desired growth.
      A non-exhaustive 11st of types of areas that might be used for
 designation Include:
      1.  AQCRs
      2.  SMSAs
      3.  Urbanized Areas
      4.  Counties
      5.  Groupings of:   Cities, Townships, Boroughs
      6.  Planning regions  used for  transportation,  land  use  or  other
          planning
      7.   Sub-state planning districts
      Designations should be pollutant-specific and should  Indicate  the
pollutants  for which the area Is designated.  The detailed analysis
required  for  each of the finally designated AQMAs would  then be done
only  on the basis  of those pollutants that are Identified as problems
1n exceeding  air  quality standards  In the future.
      For  uniformity  and  to avoid proliferation of designated AQMAs,
a single  boundary  for each AQMA should be chosen regardless of the number
of pollutants  for which  a potential problem exists.  Actual pollutant
problems within the  area may overlap or be mutually exclusive (e.g.,
one part of an AQMA may experience growth 1n mobile source pollutants,
whereas another part may suffer an Increase in S02 emission from fuel
combustion), but all the problem areas of a particular geographic
                                 12

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 location should be enclosed in only one AQMA.
      In the case of SMSAs that cross state boundaries,  the  respective
 states should coordinate their designations.   An  SMSA constitutes,  by
 definition, "...for general  economic and social purposes, a  single
 community...".   Therefore,  it is  recommended that,  for  an interstate
 SMSA, one AQMA  be designated jointly by the respective  states.   It  is
 highly desirable that  one single  integrated plan  be adopted  by all
 states involved.   If this is not  practical, however, then all state
 plans in interstate AQMAs should  be  at  least compatible with one
 another.
      It may be,  however,  that one state's  portion of an SMSA will
 experience growth in emissions, while the  adjacent state's portion will
 not;  in this  case,  it may be  desirable  for the growth state to designate
 an AQMA in (and/or  around) its portion  of  the SMSA, but for the non-
 growth  state  not  to designate  in its portion.   Obviously, one state
 cannot  designate  a  part of an AQMA, which  is located in another state.
 Interstate cooperation will be necessary to resolve any conflicts.
     The U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Activities
 (BEA) has developed projections of demographic  and economic  activity for
SMSAs.  BEA projections were made on the basis  of  SMSAs  as they existed
as of January 7, 1972.   Chapter 6 includes the  county composition of the
SMSAs as they existed at that time.   Since January 7,  1972,  several
revisions to the composition of SMSAs have been made,  the latest  in August
1972.  Therefore, the January 7, 1972 SMSAs may have slightly different
                                  13

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boundaries than the currently defined SMSAs.   The question arises as to
which boundary should be used for AQMA designation.  EPA recommends
that the January 7, 1972 SMSAs be analyzed.   Those SMSAs which are de-
termined to be problem areas should then be  designated as AQMAs on the
basis of the current (1973) SMSA composition.  For those SMSAs newly
designated since 1972 and SMSAs in Puerto Rico for which no BEA projections
exist, the states should develop their own basis for projection based on
data from various planning agencies.
2.2  CONSIDERATION OF OTHER FACTORS
     In deciding upon the particular  boundaries of an AQMA, the fol-
lowing factors should be considered.
     1.  The AQMA should include all  of the  territory that shares
         common air envelope and a common aggregation of sources.  This
         will usually be an urbanized area plus some adjoining areas
         that are now undeveloped but that are expected to develop in
         the next 10 years or so.  It may include satellite communities
         that are now separated from  the central urbanized area but will
         in 10 to 20 years, become part of the central urbanized area
         and thus share the air resource.
     2.  Use of areas previously designated  by agencies of various kinds
         may have merit in that a data base  may be available and a
                                 14

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     proliferation of "regions"  can  be  avoided.   Examples  are
     regional  planning areas,  state-designated planning  areas,  trans-
     portation planning areas, etc.
 3.   Emission  control  and  other  air  conservation  measures  necessary
     to maintain  air quality standards  1n the urbanized  and developing
     parts  of-major urban  centers may be quite stringent.  Application
     of such stringent measures  1n Isolated or undeveloped areas may
     not be advantageous.  Thus, inclusion of large rural areas 1n
     an AQMA may  not be desirable.
 4.   Design and Implementation of air conservation measures will
     Involve certain governmental agencies.  Common boundary lines
     for AQMAs and  one or  some combination of jurisdictlonal areas
     of implementing agencies may have merit from an operational
     point  of  view.
 5.   Long-range transport  of pollutants is another matter of concern.
     It 1s  true that 1f ambient air standards are maintained near
     an  aggregation  of  sources, such standards will also usually be
    maintained at more distant locations.   Therefore, it may not
     be  necessary to include those areas on the periphery of an
    aggregation of sources in order to assure maintenance of
    standards  at locations distant from the aggregation of sources.
6.  The influence of topography  and geography on dispersion of
    pollutants and on overall  community growth patterns should be
    considered.
                             15

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      7.   When designating AQMAs, preparation of detailed air quality pro-
          jections and development of any needed abatement strategies will
          need to be based on presently available land-use, transportation,
          and other plans because of time constraints.  It may be, however,
          that new general regional development plans will be prepared in
          the future because of air quality considerations or other reasons.
          The AQMA designation would desirably be compatible with any such
          future community planning activity.
2.3   AQMA BOUNDARY CHANGES
      The  designation of the boundaries of an AQMA in May of 1974 does not
preclude  changes in such boundaries at the time that more detailed air
quality analyses and abatement/maintenance plans are submitted in 1975, or
at some other time.
2.4   WITHDRAWAL OF AQMA DESIGNATION
      Areas designated in May or November 1974 may be "de-designated" if
subsequent, more detailed analysis indicate that, in fact, the ambient air
quality standards will not be jeopardized, in the coming 10 years.  There-
fore, in  borderline cases arising in initial abbreviated analyses, it is
appropriate to designate the area and proceed with more detailed analyses.
2.5  METROPOLITAN AREAS AND SPARSELY URBANIZED AREAS
     The  principal  objective of designation of AQMAs and subsequent develop-
ment of plans to maintain ambient air quality standards is to provide a
mechanism for management of general  overall urban growth as related to air
quality, with due consideration of other aspects of community growth.  New
source review procedures, which involve determination that the new source
will  meet emission  regulations  and_ not cause or contribute to contravention
                                  16

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of ambient air quality standards, will  be a part of the overall  maintenance
plan in urban areas.  In lightly urbanized areas and in rural  areas, it is
considered that properly administered new source review procedures will be
adequate to assure maintenance of air quality standards and, therefore,
more complex and burdensome i,.iintenance programs will  not ordinarily be
needed.
2.6  ASSUMPTIONS CONCERNING FUEL AVAILABILITY
     In projecting emissions from fuel-burning sources, certain  assumptions
must be made concerning the future availability and use of types of fuel.
The assumptions used must be specified in the material submitted in support
of the designation.  These will be considered valid if based upon current
trends and/or projected fuel-use requirements.  New facilities that might
change local fuel-use patterns, e.g., refineries, nuclear power  plants, oil
pipelines, coal gasification facilities, etc., but that have not already
been committed for completion by 1985, cannot be assumed to have an impact
on fuel availability in the designation process.  In addition, the current
fuel shortage cannot be assumed to continue ad infinitum, thus,  resulting in
zero growth in emissions from fuel combustion.
2.7  ASSUMPTIONS CONCERNING EMISSION AND AIR QUALITY BASELINES
     Emission baseline—In order to estimate emissions between the time
standards are attained and 1985, it is necessary to determine emissions at
the time standards are attained.  Some SIPs contain these projections of
emissions, and these can be used when available.  If not available, these
attainment date emissions can be calculated by the method presented below,
which is based on concepts developed in the Manual for Analysis  of State
Implementation Plan Progress, prepared for EPA by the Research Triangle
                                  17

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 Institute .   Regulations currently in  existence  should  be  used  to  project
 emissions.   Regulations that are  planned,  but  not yet promulgated, will  not
 be accepted  for such projections  in  the  designation  process.
      Air quality baseline—Several of  the  models presented  below for  use in
 predicting air quality  require  the use of  air  quality data  at the  time of
 implementation of existing  regulations.  As with emissions, the SIPs  may
 contain  projections' of  air  quality at  the  time of fuel  SIP  implementation,
 and these air  quality values  can  be  used.  For cases where  air quality pro-
 jections  are not contained  in the  SIP, it  may  be assumed that the NAAQS  will
 be achieved, unless  there is  reason  to believe otherwise.  Alternatively,
 recent (1972 and 1973)  air  quality data may be projected to 1975 and  hence
 to 1985,  making  proper  adjustments for growth  and scheduled abatement actions.
      Because of  the  nature  of photochemical oxidants, there may be rural areas
 that  experience  high  oxidant concentrations caused by hydrocarbons emitted
 from  either distant man-made sources or natural sources.  It is recommended
 that  these rural areas  not  be designated as AQMAs in that it would be mean-
 ingless to design a control  strategy for them since they do not contain
 controllable sources of hydrocarbons.  In addition, Federal programs are
 planned that will eventually reduce hydrocarbon emissions nationwide.
     A similar problem exists for areas subject to high  concentrations of
total suspended particulate  matter caused by uncontrollable fugitive dust
from natural  causes.  It is  recommended that particulate matter measurements
resulting from such fugitive dust not be  the basis  for projecting  air quality
for the purpose of AQMA  designation.
 Manual  for Analysis of State Implementation Plan Progress.   Research
 Triangle Institute.  Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27709.   Pre-
 pared for:  Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,  Environmental
 Protection Agency.  Contract No.  68-02-0294.  March 1974.
                                  18

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 2.8   CONSIDERATION OF AIR QUALITY  STANDARDS
      The following national ambient air quality standards  shown in Table 2-1
 should be considered  in  designating areas  in which  standards may be exceeded.

              Table 2-1.  NATIONAL  AMBIENT AIR QUALITY  STANDARDS

    Pollutant __ Primary _ Secondary
   Participate natter     (a)  75 yg/m  , annual           150  pg/m ,  second highest
                            geometric mean             24-hr average per year
                        (b)  260 yg/n3, second highest
                            24-hr average per year
  —  —                          .  _ - _
  Sulfur dioxide         (a)  80 yg/m , annual arith-     1300 yg/m ,  second highest
                            metic mean                24-hr average per year
                        (b)  365 yg/m3, second highest
                            24-hr average per year
  Carbon monoxide               10 yq/m ,  second highest 8-hour average per year
  Photochemical  oxidants        160 yg/m ,  second highest 1-hour average per year
  -  - - ,
  Nitrogen dioxide              100 ug/m ,  annual arithmetic average
      For  carbon monoxide, assume that  the 1-hour standard will  be maintained
if the 8-hour standard is maintained.   As in the original SIPs, a demonstra-
tion  of achieving the oxidant standard will  imply that the  hydrocarbon
standard  also has been achieved.
      Although states may designate on  the basis of air quality  standards
more  stringent than the national ambient  air quality standards, EPA will,
should the occasion ever arise, only act  to  the extent necessary to ensure
attainment of the national ambient air quality standards.
2.9   PROJECTION REQUIREMENTS
     Air  quality standards must be maintained throughout the  10 years fol-
lowing submission of the detailed analysis of the AQMAs.  Projections of
air quality must, therefore, be made for  the year 1985 and  for  any other
                                   19

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 years within the 10-year period in which it is believed that concentrations
 may temporarily exceed a NAAQS.
 2.10  SUPPORTING INFORMATION
      For each SMSA within the state that is exempted from designation on
 the basis of the initial criteria (pt ->sented below), the submittal  must
 include the reasons for the exemption.
      For each SMSA within the state which is not exempted based on  the initial
 criteria, a projection of air quality for each pollutant not exempted must
 accompany the submittal.  Such projections must include all  calculations,
 except where a computerized model  is used.   If a computerized  model  is
 employed, the submittal  must describe the model  used.   If the  projection
 method is not one  of the methods  recommended by EPA  below, the submittal must
 describe the method.
      A summary table of  the designations  and rationale  similar to that pre-
 sented in Table 2-2  should  accompany the  submittal.

                               Table  2-2.
         Summary of AQMA Designations for State of
Area3

Reason not,
designated

Reason .
designated

Designation for
TSP

so2


CO

°x

N02


aMust include at least all SMSAs within the state.
 Reasons would be either "Initial Criteria" or "Actual Projection."
                                  20

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2.11  PROCEDURAL REQUIREMENTS
     The areas designated by the states and eventually by EPA will have the
force of regulation by virtue of the requirement that (1) for these areas,
a determination must be made of whether NAAQS will be maintained, and (2) a
plan may have to be submitted for maintenance of the standards.  Because of
these reasons, designations must be subjected to public hearing prior to
submission to EPA by May 10, 1974.  The rationale behind the requirement of
public hearing on AQMA designation is basically that the decision to desig-
nate or not designate areas as AQMAs is of such importance, considering the
economic and developmental  implications of such decisions, that the widest
public participation in such decisions should be allowed.  In holdi^ such
hearings, the states should consider the rationale upon which decisions were
made to include or exclude  all  SMSAs, or parts thereof, within their bound-
aries.
     The regulations concerning public hearings and submission of plans
(40 CFR 51, Sections 51.4 and 51.5) are applicable with regard to submission
of the designated area.
                                 21

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                   3.   INITIAL DESIGNATION CRITERIA

     The criteria immediately below were  developed to  enable  the  states
to eliminate obvious non-problem areas  and include obvious  problem  areas
without performing an  analysis of projected  air quality.  Any SMSA  that is
not either eliminated  or automatically  included as an  AQMA  under  these cri-
teria is expected to undergo the analysis described  in Section 4  of this
document to determine  the 1985 emissions. After application  of these
initial criteria, any  SMSA that is not  automatically excluded or  included
is expected to undergo a projection of  1985  emissions  and air quality by
techniques such as those presented in Sections 4 and 5 of these guidelines.
Bear in mind that in case of a conflict between inclusion and exclusion
criteria, inclusion criteria take precedence.
     The technical derivation of these  criteria is  presented  as Appendix  A.
3.1  ELIMINATION OF OBVIOUS NON-PROBLEM AREAS
     SMSAs that meet the following criteria  may be  automatically excluded
from consideration as  an AQMA for the particular pollutant; supporting in-
formation must substantiate this exclusion.
     1.  Particulate matter:
         SMSAs that are located in AQCRs where data for the past 2 years
     indicates the AQCR is below all NAAQS.
     2.  Sulfur dioxide:
         SMSAs that are located in AQCRs where data for the past 2 years in-
     dicated that the AQCR is below all  NAAQS and, the product of  (1) the air
     quality concentration in the past year and  (2) the relative growth in
     SMSA total earnings between the base year and 1985 is less  than the
                                  23

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 national ambient air quality standards.
      3.  Carbon monoxide:
          Use Figure 3-1 and the following procedures  to determine those SMSAs
      that can be excluded from consideration as an AQMA.
          a.  Estimate the percent contribution  of CO  emissions  from light-
      duty vehicles  to total  mobile source carbon  monoxide  emissions on  heavily
      used,  central  city streets;  choose the  area  where  LDV contribution is  re-
      presentative of the local  area  in  the vicinity of  the air  quality  monitor-
      ing site.
          b.   Locate the point  of  Figure 3-1  corresponding  to the  highest
      measured 8-hour CO concentration in  the central  city  in 1970 and the LDV
      contribution to local mobile  source  emissions estimated under  (a)  above.
          c.   If  the intersection determined  in  (b) above lies on  or below
      the  curve,  the area may be automatically eliminated from consideration
      as an AQMA;  if the  point lies above  the curve, proceed with  the analysis
      described in Section 5-2.
      4.   Photochemical oxidants:
          SMSAs which have no transportation control strategy for photochemical
      oxidants and_ which are located in AQCRs  with a maximum 1-hour oxidant
      concentration of less than 320 ug/m3 during the past 2 years are excluded.
      5.  Nitrogen dioxide:
         a.   SMSAs not designated by the inclusion criteria in Section 3.2(e)
     are excluded.
3.2   INCLUSION OF OBVIOUS PROBLEM AREAS
     Areas that meet any one of the following criteria should be designated,
in whole or  at least in part, as an AQMA for  the particular pollutant.
                                 24

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 0             20            40             60             80            100

  CONTRIBUTION OF LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES TO LOCAL MOBILE SOURCE EMISSION, percent


Figure 3-1.  Exclusion criteria for carbon monoxide as a function of the
distribution of emissions between light- and heavy-duty vehicles on local
streets.
                                    25

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1.  Partlculate matter:
    Areas within AQCRs that are not projected to attain the MAAQS for
particulate matter by 1985.
    b.  Sulfur dioxide:
    Areas within AQCRs that eve not projected to attain the NAAQS for
sulfur dioxide by 1985.
3.  Carbon monoxide:
    No automatic inclusion criteria.
4.  Photochemical oxidants:
    Any areas for which a transportation control strategy for photo-
chemical oxidants is required (Table 3-1).
5.  Nitrogen dioxide:
    The appropriate parts of those SMSAs whose central cities are Los
Angeles, Chicago, New York, Denver, and Salt Lake City.
                             26

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Table 3-1.  AQCRs IN WHICH TRANSPORTATION CONTROL STRATEGIES ARE REQUIRED
State
Alaska
Arizona
California





Colorado
District of
Columbia
Illinois
Indiana
Maryland

Massachusetts

Minnesota
Missouri
New Jersey

New York

Ohio
Oregon
Pennsylvania

Rhode Island
Texas


AQCR
Northern Alaska Intrastate
Phoenix-Tucs %n Intrastate
San Francisco Bay Area Intrastate
Sacramento Valley Intrastate
Metropolitan Los Angeles Intrastate
San Joaquin Valley Intrastate
San Diego Intrastate
Southeastern Desert
Metropolitan Denver Intrastate
National Capital Interstate
Metropolitan Chicago Interstate
Metropolitan Indianapolis Interstate
National Capital Interstate
Metropolitan Baltimore Intrastate
Metropolitan Boston Intrastate
Hartford-New Haven-Springfield Interstate
Minneapolis-St. Paul Interstate
Metropolitan St. Louis Interstate
New Jersey-New York-Connecticut Interstate
Metropolitan Philadelphia Interstate
New Jersey-New York-Connecticut Interstate
Genesee-Finger Lakes Intrastate
Metropolitan Cincinnati Interstate
Portland Interstate
Metropolitan Philadelphia Interstate
Southwest Pennsylvania Intrastate
Metropolitan Providence Interstate
Metropolitan San Antonia Intrastate
Metropolitan Dallas-Ft. Worth Intrastate
Austin-Waco Intrastate
Required for
CO
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X


X
X
X
X



Ox


X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X

X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
                                    27

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Table 3-1 (continued).  AQCRs IN WHICH TRANSPORTATION CONTROL STRATEGIES ARE REQUIRED
State
Texas (cont.)



Utah
Virginia
Washington

AQCR
El Paso-Las Cruces-Alamagordo Interstate
Corpus Chris t1 -Victoria Intrastate
Metropolitan Houston-Gal veston Intrastate
Southern Louisiana-Southeast Texas Interstate3
Wasatch Front Intrastate
National Capitol Interstate
Puget Sound Intrastate
Eastern Washington-Northern Idaho Interstate
Required for
rn ""




X
X
X
X
UA
X
X
X
X

X


 a.  Currently under study; may require only stationary source control.
                                         28

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               4.  METHODS  FOR PROJECTING EMISSIONS

      In  order  to  identify  those SMSAs that could become AQMAs during the
 period of  1975 to 1985,  it will be necessary to first determine 1970 emis-
 sions, project these emissions to 1975 (or 1977 for areas granted extensions)
 to account for current SIP control strategy reductions, and then further
 project  emissions to 1985  using Bureau of Economic Analysis indicators of
 growth in  population and earnings for SMSAs.  From the 1985 emissions,
 air quality can then be estimated by techniques presented in Section 5
 and compared with the applicable standards to determine if the area being
 considered  should, in fact, be designated as an AQMA.  In many cases,
 1975 emissions will already have been estimated for the purpose of develop-
 ing SIP control strategies.  In the event that 1975 emissions are given in
 the state's implementation plan by county and they are still valid, they
may be used directly, and no projection to 1975 would, of course,  be
 necessary.   For ease in both computation  and review,  emissions can be
recorded by county within each SMSA as shown in Table 4-1.   A suggested
process for projecting  emissions  is presented in the  flow diagram of
Figure 4-1.
                                 29

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                                      Table 4-1.  EMISSION PROJECTION CALCULATIONS3
A
Source
class
Fuel combustion
Power plants
Point sources"
Area sources
Subtotal
Industrial process
, Point sources (Subtotal)
Solid Waste disposal
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Transportation
LDV
HDV
Subtotal
Miscellaneous
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
TOTAL
B
1970
emissions











C
Reduction
factors











C-l
Growth
factor
(1975/1970)











D
1975
emissions











E
Growth
rate
[(1985/1975)-!]




,






F
Emission
factor
adjustment











G
1985
emissions
G = D(l + EF)











aA table such as this should be prepared for each pollutant.
b.
 Power plants excluded.

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            Determine 1970 emissions by source category from state  files,
            SIPs, or NEDS data bank
            Assemble county emissions data into SMSA totals  for 1970
         PREFERRED METHOD ,,
Apply SIP control strategies to each
source to determine allowable emis-
sions in 1975
       BACK-UP METHOD
Apply reduction factors in Table 4-2
to emissions from 1970 uncontrolled
power plants to obtain 1975 controlled
emissions (Use more specific estimates
if available.)
Calculate 1975 emissions from new
power plants using capacity of planned
new units from utility data or "Steam-
Electric Plant Factors" and apply
regulations.
Calculate 1975 emissions from new power
plants, using capacity of planned units
from utility data or "Steam-Electric
Plant Factors" and apply regulations.
                                              For  industrial  process,  solid  waste  and
                                              misc.  sources determine  1975 controlled
                                              emissions  by applying  reduction  factors
                                              from Table 4-2  (or  local  regulations)
                                              to J970  emissions,  by  source category
                     For industrial  process,  solid waste
                     and misc.  sources,  calculate  growth
                     in  emissions  from  1970  to  1975  using
                     BEA indicators
                                        I
            	i	
            Determine  1985  emissions  from  transportation  sources  using
            formula  Qlg85 = S(Qbase)  6.E.  (for  CO,  HC,  and  N0x)
             Determine  growth  of  emissions  from  1975  to  1985  for  all  sources
             other  than transportation  using  BEA indicators	
             Determine  1985  controlled emissions from  1975 emissions  for
             industrial  process, solid waste, and miscellaneous  sources,
             using  BEA  growth  factors and emission factor adjustments
                                         i      :     "    :      ~
                                        i
            Total  1985 emissions from all source categories
               Figure 4-1.   Calculation  of  1975  and  1985  emissions.
                                      31

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 4.1   PROJECTING  1975 EMISSIONS
      Two methods for projecting 1975 emissions are presented below, a
 "preferred" method and a "back-up" method.  By implication, EPA expects the
 "preferred" method to be used for the most part in each state.  Only where
 time  does not permit or where the wor^oad will be great (such as for those
 states that have a large number of SMSAs to be analyzed), should the "back-
 up" method be used.  Before deciding to use the "back-up" method, states
 should discuss the problems of using the "preferred" method with the repre-
 sentative responsible for maintenance of standards in the appropriate EPA
 Regional Office.  CO, HC, and N0x emissions from transportation sources
 can be calculated to 1985 directly by the method presented below in
 Section 4.2.
 4.1.1  Preferred Method
     This method is the same as that used in the development of the original
 implementation plans, i.e., a source-by-source tabulation of emissions
 allowed under the applicable control strategies contained in the state's
 implementation plan.   Data  should be presented and submitted in a form
 similar to that presented in Appendix D of 40 CFR, Part 51.
     For projections  of new steam-generating power plants,  it is recommended
that states  contact electric utility companies directly.   If time does not
permit this,  use 1975 projections of new capacity in the  latest edition of
 "Steam-Electric Plant Factors" published by the National  Coal  Association.
                                  32

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     After the source-by-source tabulation  of allowable  emission  has  been

computed, tabulate the allowable emissions  into the following  categories,

and use the recommended projection parameter to account  for growth  to

1975.

                                                Recommended BEA
          Category                           Projection  Parameter*

     Fuel combustion (excluding power plants)       Total  earnings

     Industrial processes                           Manufacturing earnings

     Solid waste                                    Population

     Miscellaneous                                  Total  earnings

     Emissions from these four categories and power plants can be recorded

in Table 4-1.

4.1.2  Back-up Method

     The following technique is based on 1970 summary NEDS data,  and  uses

average emission reduction factors derived  from analysis of point source
*EPA's recommendation that these parameters be used was based upon avail-
 able information and was not the result of a statistical  analysis to
 determine an accurate correlation between emissions from  a particular
 category and an economic or demographic parameter.  Furthermore,  the user
 of these projections should be aware that it is not known what relation-
 ship exists between an increase in an economic indicator  and an increase
 in emissions from a particular category.  Another complicating factor is
 the present energy situation—it is not known what effect the current
 situation will have on long-term growth.
                                  33

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emissions 1n six AQCRs (St. Louis, Denver, Washington, D.C., Seattle,
Indianapolis, and Boston).  These factors represent reductions 1n emissions
resulting from Imposition of typical regulations under the SIP process.
Power plant emissions are calculated separately from other sources because
(1) of the Importance of their emissions, (2) different emission reduction
ratios must be applied to them, and (3) projections of new power plants  are
readily available.  Obviously, SIP emission limitations vary widely, and
thus the factors may over- or underestimate results in some cases.  In the
interest of alleviating a time-consuming burden, however, EPA offers this
technique as a substitute for a detailed source-by-source and detailed
category analysis only in those states where time does not permit use of
the "preferred" method.
4.1.2.1  Step A - Determine 1970 Emissions - Using emissions summaries,  or
NEDS data bank, obtain and record 1970 emissions for each pollutant by point
and area source category, i.e., fuel combustion, industrial processes, solid
waste, transportation, and miscellaneous sources.  Show emissions for power
plants separate from other fuel combustion sources.  Emissions can be recorded
in this manner as shown in Table 4-1.
4.1.2.2  Step B - Determine 1975 Power Plant Emissions - Calculate power
plant emissions from existing and new plants using data from Steam-Electric
                                                                 2
Plant Factors, published yearly by the National Coal Association.
2
 Steam-Electric Plant Factors.   National  Coal  Association, 1130 Seventeenth
 St., N.W., Washington, D.C.  20036.
                                 34

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     4.1.2.2.1  Power plants existing in 1970 - Multiply 1970 SIP emission
factors  in Table 4-2 (or more specific factors, if available) to get 1975
controlled emissions.  This reduction applies only to those plants that
were not controlled to SIP regulations in 1970.  For power plants that were
under control in 1970, extend 1970 emissions unchanged to 1985.
     4.1.2.2.2  New power plants - It is preferable that the state contact
electric utility companies directly to obtain projections of new power plants,
If time does not permit this, use 1975 projections of new capacity in the
latest edition of  Steam-Electric Plant Factors.   Calculate emissions in
1975 for additional capacity over 1970 using appropriate factors for losses
allowed by Federal New Source Performance Standards, or SIP regulations in
the event the SIP regulations either take effect earlier or are more
stringent than the NSPS.
4.1.2.3  Step C  Determine 1975 Emissions from Other Sources - Determine
allowable emissions in 1975 for point and area sources (other than power
plants and transportation sources) by source category using the emission re-
duction factors given in Table 4-2.   If it is likely that state regulations
or those of a local agency within state boundaries would result in values
significantly different from those produced by use of the factors in Table
4-2, then the state should use its own regulations or those of the appropri-
ate local agency in determining 1975 emissions.  Such regulations should be
documented.   Since this estimate does not account for growth between 1970
and 1975, the results of using Table 4-2 must be modified by the projected
growth in emissions for each source  category.
4.1.2.4  Step D - Project Growth Rates for 1970 to 1975 - To obtain emissions
for all  sources except power plants, multiply emissions determined in Step C
                                   35

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              Table 4-2.  EMISSION  REDUCTION FACTORS

     (Ratio of 1975 allowable  emissions  to 1970 emissions)
Source Category
Fuel combustion
Point sources minus power generation
Area sources
Power generation sources
Industrial processes
Solid Waste
Point sources
Area sources
Transportation
Miscellaneous
Point sources
Area sources
Particulate
matter

0.44
0.48
0.50
0.43

0.29
0.28
1.0

1.0
1.0
S0x

0.43
0.57
0.43
0.37

1.0
0.82
1.0

1.0
1.0
HC

1.0
1.0
1.0
0.47

1.0
0.88
b

0.48
1.0
CO

1.0
1.0
1.0
0.10

0.53
0.88
b

1.0
1.0
NOX

1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0

1.0
1.0
b

1.0
1.0
 These  emission  reduction  factors  for  1975 as compared to 1970 are based on
 a composite  of  expected and  existing  conditions  and emission control regu-
 lations  in St.  Louis,  Denver,  Washington, D.C.,  Seattle, Indianapolis, and
 Boston.   All  agencies  should develop  such factors for conditions in each
 area under consideration  wh¥never possible.  The factors above should be
 used only when  such  specific factors  cannot be prepared.


Calculated by different method; see text.
                                 36

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 above by growth factors  obtained  from  available  data  or  BEA  projections,  deter-
 mined as follows:*
      1.   For fuel combustion  sources,  except  power  plants  (where  the method
      of  calculating  growth  has  been  previously explained), it  is  suggested
      that the growth rate be  based on  the  percent increase in  total earnings
      from 1970 to 1975 for  the  particular  SMSA.
      2.   For the industrial processes, the growth rate can be  based on the
      percent increase in manufacturina earnings.
      3.   For solid waste emissions,  the growth factor can be based on the
      percent increase in population  for 1970  to  1975.
      4.   For miscellaneous  emissions, the growth factor  can be based on the
      increase in total earnings as was sugciested for the category of fuel
      combustion  sources.
      5.   For particulate matter and  SO  emissions from transportation, the
                                      /\
      growth  factor can be based on the increase  in population.  These growth
      factors  can be  inserted  in Column C-l.
 4.2   PROJECTING  1985  EMISSIONS
      For  transportation sources, the following formula may be used to compute
 1985  emissions using  1972 baseline data for NO. and 1970 baseline data for all
 other pollutants.  (It is not necessary to make a calculation to determine the
 level of  1975 emissions for transportation sources):

     Q1985 =      «Wi  Gi  Ei
*CO, HC, and NO  emissions from transportation sources can be calculated to
 1985 directly  by the method presented in Section 4.2
                                  37

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 where Q19Q5 = Projected 1985 emissions
     ^base^i = Baseline emission from source category  i.
           G.J = Growth factor for source category i.
           E.J = Emission factor ratio for source category i.
      Project 1985 emissions from 1975 emissions for  all source categories
 other than transportation using the formula:*
      Fi  = C1 (1+D,M
 where:   F = 1985 emissions from source category i
         D = Growth rate of emissions between 1975  and  1985 for source
             category i
         E = Emission factor adjustment for  source  category i  (applied  only
             to  industrial  process  sources - for all  other categories E.  =• 1)
     Growth rates  (D in Equation 4-2)  for emissions  between  1975  and 1985
 are  the  same as  those used to  project  1975  emissions (see footnote  in
 Section  4.1.1).  That is,  the  percent  increase  in  total  earnings  projected
 for  1975 to  1985 may be used to project emissions  from  fuel combustion;  the
 percent  increase in  manufacturing earnings  may  be  used  for industrial  pro-
 cessess;  the percent increase  in population  may be used  for solid waste
 emissions and particulate  matter and SOX emissions from  transportation;  and
 the  percent  increase  in  total earnings may  be used for the miscellaneous
 category.  For power  plants, it is again recommended that the  state contact
 electric utility companies directly.   If time does not permit  this, the  percent
 increase in total earnings projected for 1975 to 1985 may be used to project
 1985 power plant emissions since it appears  to  be most closely related to  the
*This formula is not to be used for power plants if actual existing and pro-
 jected emissions are available.
                                  38

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                                                              o
 increased demand for electric power.  Add these power plant emissions to
 the emissions extended unchanged from 1970 to get total  1985 emissions from
 power plants.
      An adjustment will  be needed to account for control  between 1975 and
 1985 of new industrial  process  sources because of forthcoming new source
 performance standards.   Generally,  these  standards will  be  more stringent
 than limitations presently contained in the  SIPs.   The adjustment needed
 to account for future  new source  performance standards would  be the  ratio
 of the  estimated percent  allowable  emissions  under the future new source
 performance standards  to  the  percent allowable  emissions  under  the current
 SIP  control  strategy.  These  ratios,  of course,  vary widely  among industrial
 categories.   Furthermore,  EPA has only  a  rough  idea of what the  standards
 will eventually  be.  It is suggested, therefore, that a composite adjustment
 factor of  0.40 be used as  the "E" value in Equation 4-2 for industrial process
 sources for each pollutant.  Bear in mind that this "E" value applies only
 to industrial process sources.  For other source categories, use E=l.  Examples
of the method of projecting 1985 emissions and air quality,  using the "back-
up" method of projecting 1975 emissions, are enclosed in  Appendix B of these
guidelines.
                                  39

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           5.   INSTRUCTIONS FOR MODELING AIR QUALITY CONCENTRATIONS

 5.1   INTRODUCTION
      This section of the guideline presents information concerning models
 recommended for use in predicting 1985 air quality, once 1985 emissions
 have  been calculated.  After this air quality prediction has been made,
 the designation of AQMAs can be made, i.e., those areas that are pre-
 dicted to exceed the standard can be selected.
 5.2   ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR CARBON MONOXIDE
      Once carbon monoxide (CO) emissions have been projected to 1985, using
 techniques found in Chapter 4 of this document, air quality concentrations
 for CO can be determined with the aid of the following techniques.
      High CO concentrations are observed primarily near areas of high
 traffic density.  "Rollback" models for CO have been criticized for
 giving undue weight to stationary source CO emissions and to vehicle emis-
 sions growth in the suburbs as compared to vehicle emissions arowth on
 streets in the fully developed parts of urban areas where most existing air
 sampling sites are located.  The following model mitigates these problems by
 giving the most weight (80 per cent) to local traffic near the air sampling
 station and relatively less weight (20 per cent) to total regional emissions.
     The model  divides the observed CO concentration into two parts:
 that attributable to local  traffic, and that attributable to the entire
 urbanized area.   Changes in emissions from each of these components are
projected, and  the 1985 concentration is predicted using modified roll-
back techniques.  The model  equations are:
                                  41

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                           EL  +  PH
                                                                           {5,2)
                                             -^-^AJs
                                               - -          (5-3)
        where:  FT  =  Total future (1985) CO concentration
               FL  =  Future concentration attributable  to  local traffic
               Fy  =  Future concentration attributable  to  urban emission
              b   =  Background concentration
              B   =  Baseline concentration  (measured or estimated).
              PL   =  Percent emission  from light-duty vehicles  (gross
                    vehicle weight  < 6000  Ib)
              PH   =  Percent emission  from other mobile sources (gross   •
                     vehicle weight >  6000 Ib)
              PS   =  Percent emission  from stationary sources
              G    =   Growth  factor over the projection period,  G*  ^ G
              E    =   Expected ratio of 1985 emission to baseline emission
                     for a composite source (Obtained from Table 5-1)
             G*  =  Growth factor for  traffic  on  local  streets  near
                    critical air sampling stations.
      Equations 5-1, 5-2, and 5-3 may  be  used  to  estimate 1985  CO  concentra-
tions in those areas that cannot be eliminated  by using  the  initial desig-
nation criteria.   The information needed  to  apply the equations is  listed
as follows:
     1.   Baseline  air quality (b).  Second highest 8-hour average, during most
         recent year  at a  site where the public has access for at least 8 hours.'
     2.   Backqround CO concentration (b).  Use l ppm 1f data to the CQntrary
         are unavailable.
                                 42

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 3.   Percentage  contribution of light- and heavy-duty vehicles and
     stationary  sources to the baseline year emission inventory  (same
     year as air quality data).  This information should be computed
     from the  latest emission inventory available locally.  If local data
     are unavailable, the National Emissions Data System (NEDS) data file
     contains  emissions data by county which may be used.  The users of
     equations 5-1, 5-2, and 5-3 must distinguish between two sets of P.
     and PH values for the local traffic and general urban cases:  in the
     calculation of FL, use the PL and PH values used in the application
     of the initial designation criteria for CO; in the calculation of F..,
     use the PL  and PH values corresponding to the general urban area.
4.   Growth rates from past trends for the source categories.   Ideally,
     the growth  rates should be based on a direct indicator of emission
     potential  such as vehicle miles, material  processed, kilowatts
     generated, etc.   It may be necessary to  use an indirect indicator
     such as the BEA projections of population  and economic activity.
    Growth in  population  is recommended as a  logical  choice of estimator
    of mobile  source emissions.
5.  Emission factor  ratios.   Nationwide emission factor ratios for motor
    vehicles are presented  in  Table  5-1.   If  local  mobile source emission
    factors are  expected  to differ from the national  by virtue of
    transportation controls,  unusual  vehicle  life expectancy,  or other
    reasons, local emission  factor ratios  may  be used.   The procedure
    for  calculating  composite  vehicle emission factors  is  presented i in
                              43

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                Table 5-1.   EMISSION  FACTOR RATIOS3
Year

1970b
1975
1980
1985

1970b
1975
1980
1985
Heavy-duty
vehicles
Carbon monoxide
1.00
0.96
0.94
0.93
Hydrocarbons^
1.00
0.92
0.82
0.79
Light-duty
vehicles

1.00
0.59
0.29
0.08

1.00
0.50
0.25
0.07
 Ratio of emissions  in  given year  to  1970 base year.


bFor data bases  other than  1970  (such as 1971, 1972, 1973) for CO and
 HC, interpolate between  1970  and  1975 values.
                                  44

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          the publication EPA-450/2-73-003,  An Interim Report on  Motor  Vehicle
                              o
          Emission Estimation.

               The emission factor ratio for stationary sources will  depend

          on the particular source mix  in the area  and on  state regulations

          for stationary source CC emissions.   If such information  is unavail-

          able, then the following emission  factor  ratios  may be  used:

                                          CO  Emission Factor
                Source                       Ratio.  1970-1985

                Power plants                      1.0

                Industry                         0.5

                Area Sources  (stationary)         1.0

          The overall stationary source  emission  factor ratio is  calculated

          from

          E           =P    F    +PF+PF
          ^composite  rPP  LPP     HI   bl  +  *A  fcA



 5.3  RELATING  OXIDANT CONCENTRATION TO  HYDROCARBON EMISSIONS

     Appendix  J to  40 CFR Part 51  "Requirements for Preparation,  Adoption,

 and Submittal  of  Implementation Plans"  (published in the August  14, 1971,

 and republished in  the November 25, ]971, Federal Register) presents an

 estimate of  the hydrocarbon emission reduction needed to obtain the NAAQS

 for photochemical oxidant.  This estimate is based  on an "envelope curve"

 that encloses data points for nonmethane hydrocarbon and oxidant  concentra-

 tions in several cities.

     There is evidence  to suggest that  HC/NO  ratios should decrease as a
                                            s\

result  of emission control  regulations  in force  and anticipated.   There


 Kircher, D.S. and Armstronq,  D.P. "An  Interim Report  on Motor Vehicle
 Emission Estimation,"  EPA-450/2-73-003, Research Triangle Park  N  C
 October 1973.                                                    '  '
                                  45

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should also be some oxidant reduction, although the amount of additional
reduction cannot be quantified at present.  Therefore, Appendix J must
be considered a conservative estimate in that it may require more HC
reduction than needed.
     Appendix J should be used as follows:
          1.  Project 1985 HC emissions as shown in Steps A through D of
              Section 4.1.2.1 through 4.1.2.4.
          2.  Determine the expected emission change by
              Rexpected  =  Ebase  " E1985  x  100%
                                 base
          3.  Determine the required percentage hydrocarbons emission reduc-
              tions using Appendix J and the highest observed 1-hour oxiclant
              concentration durinq the baseline year.
          4.  If R required from Step 3 is greater than R expected from
              Step 2, the area should be designated an AQMA for oxidant.
              This will be especially true if Rexpected is a negative number.
5.4  ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR OTHER POLLUTANTS--RELATING PROJECTED EMISSIONS
     TO AIR QUALITY
5.4.1  Proportional Roll-forward Model
     Present air quality may be projected to 1985 for pollutants other than
oxidants and CO (i.e., air quality may be projected for TSP, S02, and NO )
using the proportional rollforward model  as shown in the following formula.
      C1985  =  b  +  (Cbase  ' b>  *™*
                                    ^base
      Where:  C-|Q85  =  projected concentration
              b      =  background concentration
                                   46

-------
               Cbase  =  base1ine concentration
               Q1985  =  projected emission
               Qbase  =  baseline emission
           While the proportional roll forward technique is  a  potential  means
      for selecting which counties or SMSAs to designate as AQMAs,  it  has
      several  shortcomings which may render it unsuitable,  or impossible,  to
      apply.   There are:
           1.   Base year  air quality observations  are  required.
           2.   The monitoring data must  be representative of  the  area of
               interest (i.e., a monitor dominated by  a single point source or
               a  small  number of select  sources may result  in anomalous pre-
               dictions).
           3.   The meteorology occurring  during the base period must be simi-
               lar to that which is  of interest during  the  period being
               modeled.  As  a  result  of  these  limitations,  it may be necessary
               to  designate  AQMAs  using analytical  techniques which:
                    a.  Do not  require previous air quality observations,
                    b.  Take  some  explicit account, at  least  in a rough sense,
                       of meteorological differences.
          Where the above conditions apply with particular force, it may be
     appropriate  to use the Miller-Holzworth model described in the next
     section.
5.4.2  Miller-Holzworth Model
     The Miller-Holzworth Model can be used only for  the calculation of
annual averages of suspended particulate matter and sulfur  dioxide.   The
                                   47

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 Miller-Holzworth Model  1-3 for area sources assumes concentrations to be a
 function of emission  density, wind speed, atmospheric mixing depth, and city
 size.   The model  implicitly  assumes that the atmosphere  is slightly unstable
 (between Turner Stability Classes  C and D).4   Stability  assumptions cannot
 be varied.  The model,  as formulated  below, estimates the city-wide average
 concentration for the sampling  time of interest.   The relationship among
 average city-wide concentration, emission  density, city  size,  wind speed,
 and mixing depth is:                                              -.
         X-0.011Q   [3.61H°-13  +  ^  .  (5.5 , UT5)   uH1-".]     (5-4)

         Where v~  =   average city-wide concentration, wj/m
                                                • 2
               q  =   emission density, tons/yr-mi
               H  =   mixing  depth, m
               S  =   along-wind  distance of the city (miles).  When this is
                      not known,  assume S =yareir.   The "area" is the urbanized
                      portion of  the city.
                u   =   wind speed, m/sec
  In cities in which  1600 S/u  0.471 H1'13,  mixing  depth  is unimportant  and
  X becomes X  =  0.044 q (1600 S/u)0'115                              (5~5)
       The procedure one would use in  applying the model  would  depend  on
'^'ftfiltMf air q'Uatltf clatrWere1 available;  awf brt the pbltutaht -tfUii sampling
  time being analyzed.
       1.   If no air  quality data are  available
            a.  Use emission  density estimates obtained as shown in Section 4
               of these  Guidelines, "Methods of Projecting Emissions"
                           2
                (tons/yr-mi )
   4Turner,  D.B.,  "Workbook  of Atmospheric  Dispersion  Estimates."   999-AP-26
    (1969).
                                     48

-------
        b.  For annual  standards such as  the NAAQS  for nitrogen  dioxide,
            refer to Figures 1  and 11 in  OAP Publication  AP-101   showing  the
            mean annual morning mixing depths and wind speeds  for the  United
            States.  Select the values of "H" and "U"  which are  appropriate
            for the u^ea of the country being analyzed.   Use these in
            Equation (5-4) or Equation (5-5)
        c.  For short-term (1-hour to 24-hour) standards, refer  to Figures
            2 and 12, in Reference 3 showing mean winter  morning mixing
            depths and wind speeds.  Use  the indicated values  in Equation
            (5-4) or Equation (5-5).
    2.  If air quality data are available
        a.  Take emission projections obtained as shown in Section 4 of
            these Guidelines.
        b.  Subtract present emission density from  projected emission
            density.
        c.  Apply the Miller-Holzworth Model as described above  except use
            the difference between projected and present  emission densities
            in Equation (5-4) or (5-5) to obtain
        AX  =  0.01UQ  [3.61  H°'13 + §0-  (5.5x10-5) u ^ -26 J   (5.5,
 or     A*  =  0.011AQ  (1600 S/u)°'115                             (5-7)
        d.  Add A x" to the observed air quality levels
Holzworth, 6.C., "Mixing Heights, Mind Speeds, and Potential for Urban Air
Pollution Throughout the Contiguous United States," OAP Publication AP-101,
January 1972.
                                49

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     3.   Use of Calibrated Miller-Holzworth Model


         Wherever possible, it would be preferable to use a  version of the


         model  that has been calibrated with observed data.   Figure 1  in


         Appendix A of the 40 CFR Part 51  is such  a version  that has been


         calibrated for annual TSP and S0? concentrations in cases where


         mixing depth is unimportant.  Such cases  would occur when


                  1600 S/u  < 0.471 H1'13


         In many cases, mixing depth remains relatively unimportant for

                                                    ] 1 O
         pollutant travel times greater than 0.471 H    . Thus, if the


         annual concentration of TSP or S0? concentrations is of interest,


         Figure 1 in Appendix A, of 40 CFR  Part 51  should be  used instead


         of Equations (5-4), (5-5), (5-6), (5-7).


5.4.3  Estimating Short-Term Concentrations for Sulfur Dioxide and Participates


     It is necessary that the short-term standards for S0? and TSP be main-


tained as well  as the annual standards.  Two methods may be  employed to


estimate compliance with short-term standards:  roll forward  and the log-


normal relationship.


5.4.3.1   Roll forward - The proportional model given in Section 5.4.1 may be


applied directly to snort-term concentrations. The second highest 24-hour


or 3-hour concentration* observed in the AQMA entered as C..  . and the cal-
                                                     "- • -••i-*.JeJ!§§L „,,,
                                                            " *"*** *&£, ,
culated C,gg5 is compared with the appropriate short-term standard/


5.4.3.2  Log-Normal - Log-normal model is  an empirical relationship developed


by Dr. Larsen of EPA.  The model allows the estimation of short-term maximum


concentrations given the annual average and a characteristic parameter of the .
*Short-term standards are not to be exceeded more than once per year.  Thus,
 it is the second highest value that must meet NAAQS.
                                   50

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concentration distribution called the Geometric Standard Deviation (GSD).
Table 5-2 is taken directly from R. I. Larsen's A Mathematical  Model  for
Relating Air Quality Measurements to Air Quality Standards. AP-89.  Using
this table, the peak concentration may be calculated from the annual  average
provided the GSD is know^.  The GSD is routinely calculated for air quality
data in the SAROAD data bank.
5.5  COMPARISON OF PROJECTED AIR QUALITY WITH NAAQS
     After air quality concentrations have been projected to 1985, a  compari-
son to the NAAQS presented in Section 2.8 can be made.   If the  projected air
quality of an area exceeds a NAAQS, the area should be  designated an  AQMA
for that pollutant; conversely, if the projected air quality does not exceed
a NAAQS, the area does not have to be designated as an  AQMA for that  pollu-
tant.

NOTE:  Examples of the method of projecting 1985 emissions and  air quality
       using the "back-up" method of projecting 1975 emissions  are enclosed
       in Appendix B of these guidelines.
                                  51

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Table 5-2.  RATIO OF EXPECTED ANNUAL MAXIMUM POLLUTANT CONCENTRATION
       TO ARITHMETIC MEAN CONCENTRATION FOR VARIOUS AVERAGING
              TIMES AND STANDARD GEOMETRIC DEVIATIONS
Standard geometric deviation for
averaging times of:
1 sec
1.00
1.07
1.14
1.21
1.29
1.36
1.44
1.51
1.59
1.67
1.75
1.83
1.91
1.99
2.08
2.16
2.25
2.34
2.42
2.51
2.60
2.69
2.78
2.87
2.97
3.06
3.15
3.25
3.34
3.44
3.54
3.64
3.74
3.83
3.93
4.04
4.14
4.24
4.34
4.45
4.55
4.66
4.76
4.87
4.97
5 min
1.00
1.06
1.11
1.17
1.23
1.29
1.34
1.40
1.46
1.52
1.58
1.64
1.70
1.76
1.82
1.88
1.94
2.00
2.06
2.12
2.19
2.25
2.31
2.37
2.43
2.50
2.56
2.62
2.69
2.75
2.81
2.88
2.94
3.00
3.07
3.13
3.20
3.26
3.33
3.39
3.46
3.52
3.59
3.65
3.72
1hr
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
1.70
1.75
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
2.10
2.15
2.20
2.25
2.30
2.35
2.40
2.45
2.50
2.55
2.60
2.65
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.85
2.90
2.95
3.00
3.05
3.10
3.15
3.20
3hr
1.00
1.05
1.09
1.14
1.19
1.23
1.28
1.32
1.37
1.42
1.46
1.51
1.55
1.60
1.64
1.69
1.74
1.78
1.83
1.87
1.92
1.96
2.00
2.05
2.09
2.14
2.18
2.23
2.27
2.32
2.36
2.41
2.45
2.49
2.54
2.58
2.63
2.67
2.71
2.76
2.80
2.84
2.89
2.93
2.98
8hr
1.00
1.04
1.09
1.13
1.17
1.22
1.26
1.30
1.34
1.39
1.43
1.47
1.51
1.55
1.59
1.63
1.68
1.72
1.76
1.80
1.84
1.88
1.92
1.96
2.00
2.04
2.08
2.12
2.16
2.20
2.24
2.27
2.31
2.35
2.39
2.43
2.47
2.51
2.55
2.59
2.62
2.66
2.70
2.74
2.78
1 day
1.00
1.04
1.08
1.12
1.16
1.20
1.24
1.27
1.31
1.35
1.39
1.42
1.46
1.50
1.53
1.57
1.61
1.64
1.68
1.71
1.75
1.78
1.82
1.85
1.89
1.92
1.96
1.99
2.03
2.06
2.09
2.13
2.16
2.19
2.23
2.26
2.29
2.33
2.36
2.39
2.42
2.46
2.49
2.52
2.55
4 days
1.00
1.04
1.07
1.10
1.14
1.17
1.20
1.24
1.27
1.30
1.33
1.36
1.39
1.42
1.45
1.48
1.51
1.54
1.57
1.60
.63
.66
.69
.72
.74
1.77
1.80
.83
.85
.88
.91
.93
1.96
1.99
2.01
2.04
2.07
2.09
2.12
2.14
2.17
2.20
2.22
2.25
2.27
1 mo
1.00
1.03
1.05
1.08
1.10
1.12
1.15
1.17
1.19
1.21
1.24
1.26
1.28
1.30
1.32
1.34
1.36
1.38
1.40
1.42
1.44
1.46
1.47
1.49
1.51
1.53
1.55
1.56
1.58
1.60
1.62
1.63
1.65
1.67
1.68
1.70
1.71
1.73
1.75
1.76
1.78
1.79
1.81
1.82
1.84
Ratio of annual maximum concentration to mean
concentration for averaging times of:
1 sec
1.00
1.44
2.04
2.83
3.86
5.18
6.85
8.94
11.53
14.69
18.53
23.14
28.65
35.16
42.83
51.78
62.18
74.18
87.96
103.70
121.61
141.88
164.73
190.39
219.09
251.07
286.61
325.94
369.37
417.15
469.60
527.00
539.67
657.92
732.07
812.47
899.45
993.34
1094.51
1203.31
1320.11
1445.27
1579.16
1722.17
1874.68
5 min
1.00
1.27
1.59
1.97
2.42
2.93
3.51
4.18
4.03
5.77
6.71
7.76
8.92
10.19
11.58
13.11
14.76
16.56
18.50
20.59
22.83
25.24
27.81
30.55
33.47
36.56
39.84
43.31
46.97
50.82
54.88
59.14
63.60
68.28
73.17
78.28
83.61
89.16
94.94
100.94
107.17
113.64
120.34
127.28
134.46
1 hr
1.00
1.20
1.43
1.69
1.97
2.28
2.63
3.00
3.41
3.84
4.32
4.82
5.37
5.95
6.56
7.21
7.90
8.62
9.39
10.19
11.03
11.91
12.83
13.78
14.78
15.81
16.89
18.00
19.15
20.34
21.57
22.84
24.14
25.49
26.87
28.29
29.75
31.24
32.78
34.35
35.95
37.60
39.28
40.99
42.74
3hr
1.00
1.17
1.37
1.57
1.80
2.05
2.31
2.60
2.90
3.22
3.56
3.92
4.30
4.70
5.12
5.55
6.01
6.49
6.98
7.49
8.03
8.58
9.15
9.74
10.34
10.97
11.61
12.27
12.94
13.64
14.35
15.07
15.82
16.58
17.35
18.14
18,95
1977
20.60
21.45
22.32
23.20
24.09
25.00
25.92
8hr
1.00
1.15
1.31
1.48
1.66
1.86
2.06
2.28
2.51
2.75
3.00
3.26
3.53
3.81
4.10
4.40
4.71
5.03
5.36
5.70
6.04
6.40
6.76
7.14
7.52
7.91
8.30
8.71
9.12
9.54
9.97
10.40
10.84
11.28
11.74
12.20
12.66
13.13
13.61
14.09
14.58
15.07
15.57
16.07
16.57
Iday
1.00
1.12
1.25
1.38
1.52
1.67
1.82
1.98
2.14
2.31
2.48
2.65
2.84
3.02
3.21
3.40
3.60
3.80
4.00
4.21
4.42
4.64
4.85
5.07
5.29
5.52
5.75
5.98
6.21
6.44
6.68
6.92
7.16
7.40
7.64
7.89
8.13
8.38
8.63
8.88
9.13
9.38
9.64
9.89
10.15
4 days
1.00
1.09
1.18
1.27
1.36
1.46
1.56
1.65
1.75
1.85
1.95,
2.05
2.15
2.26
2.36
2.46
2.57
2.67
2.77
2.88
2.98
3.09
3.19
3.30
3.40
3.51
3.61 .
3.72
3.82
3.93
4.03
4.13
4.24
4.34
4.44
4.55
4.65
4.75
4.86
4.96
5.06
5.16
5.26
5.36
5.46
1 mo
1.00
1.04
1.08
1.12
1.16
1.20
1.24
1.28
1.31
1.35
1.38
1.42
1.45
1.48
1.52
1.55
1.58
1.61
1.64
1.67
1.70
1.73
1.75
1.78
1.81
.83
.86
.88
.91
.93
.96
.98
2.00
2.03
2.05
2.07
2.09
2.11
2.13
2.16
2.18
2.20
2.22
2.24
2.25
                                52

-------
 Table 5-2 (Continued).   RATIO OF EXPECTED ANNUAL MAXIMUM POLLUTANT
CONCENTRATION TO ARITHMETIC MEAN CONCENTRATION FOR VARIOUS AVERAGING
              TIMES AND  STANDARD GEOMETRIC DEVIATIONS

1 sec
5.08
5.19
5.30
5.41
5.52
5.63
5.74
5.85
5.96
6.08
6.19
6.30
6.42
6.53
6.65
Standard geometric deviation for
averaging times of:
5 min
3.78
3.85
3.91
3.98
4.05
4.11
4.18
4.24
4.31
4.38
4.44
4.51
4.58
4.65
4.71
1 hr
3.25
3.30
3.35
3.40
3.45
3.50
3.55
3.60
3.65
3.70
3.75
3.80
3.85
3.90
3.95
3hr
3.02
3.06
3 11
3.15
3.19
3.24
3.28
3.32
3.37
3.41
3.45
350
3.54
358
3.63
8hr
2.81
2.85
2.89
2.93
2.97
3.00
3.04
3.08
3.12
3.15
3.19
3.23
3.27
3.30
3.34
1 day
2.59
2.62
2.65
2.68
2.71
2.75
2.78
2.81
2.84
2.87
2.90
2.93
2.96
3.00
3.03
4 days
2.3°
2.32
2.35
2.37
2.39
2.42
2.44
2.47
2.49
2.52
2.54
2.56
2.59
2.61
2.63
1 mo
1.85
1.87
1.88
1.90
1.91
1.93
1.94
1.95
1.97
1.98
2.00
2.01
2.02
2.04
2.05
Ratio of annual maximum concentration to mean
concentration for averaqinq times of •
1 sec
^•••••••••••HMI
2037.07
2209.73
2393.06
2587.45
2793.31
3011.02
3241.01
3483.66
3739.39
4008.61
4291.72
4589.13
4901.25
5228.49
5571.26
5 min
141.87
149.53
157.43
165.58
173.97
182.61
191.50
200.63
210.02
219.65
229.54
23967
250.06
260.70
271.59
1 hr
44.53
46.35
48.20
5009
52.01
5396
55.95
57.97
60.02
62.11
64.22
66.37
68.55
7075
72.99
3hr
26.85
27.79
28.75
29.72
3071
31.7Q
32.71
33.72
34.75
35.79
36.84
27.90
3897
40.05
41.14
8hr
17.09
17.60
18.12
18.65
19.17
19.71
20.24
20.78
21.32
21.87
22.42
22.97
23.53
24.09
24.65
1 day
10.40
10.66
10.92
11.18
11.44
11.70
11.96
12.22
12.48
12.74
13.00
13.26
13.53
13.79
14.05
4 days
5.56
566
5.76
5.86
5.96
6.05
6.15
6.25
6.34
6.44
6.53
6.63
6.72
6.82
6.91
1 mo
2 27
2.29
2.31
2.33
2.35
236
2.38
2.40
2.41
2.43
245
2.46
2.48
2.49
2.51
                              53

-------
       6.  PROJECTIONS OF DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS BY SMSA
                                     »
      Table 6-1 presents the national projections  of demographic and
 economic indicators for the United States.   These projections  were  taken
 directly from Population and Economic Activity in the  United States and
 Standard Metropolitan Statistical  Area_s_^_jjjstor1ca1 and  Projected—
 1950-2020.  prepared by the  U.S.  Department  of  Commerce, Bureau of
 Economic Analysis  (BEA) in  July,  1972.6   Because  of the large  number of
 SMSAs,  the  major users of this document  (state air  pollution control
 agencies and  EPA Regional Offices)  received  cooies  of  the projections for
 the  SMSAs located  in  their  particular  geographic  areas of interest.  If
 the  reader  desires  a  copy of the projections for  particular  SMSAs,  he
 can  request these from the  representative responsible  for matters con-
 cerning  maintenance of air  quality  standards in the aopropriate EPA
 Regional  Office  or  the  appropriate  state air pollution control agency.
 The  BEA  projection report is also located in U.S.  Government depository
 libraries under  the GPO number EP 1.2:P31/950-020.
     This chapter also contains a list of states and the names of the
 SMSAs located in each state  (this list is of the SMSAs  as  of January 7,
 1972, not the most current list), and a list of the SMSAs  and the counties
which are contained within each SMSA (again, these are  the SMSAs of
January 7, 1972)
 Population and Economic  Activity in  the  United  States  and  Standard
 Metropolitan Statistical  Areas  - HistgrjcaT^anriPrnjort^  1050  2020
 The U.S  Department  of Conmerce, Social  and  Economic Statistics   '
 Administration,  Bureau of Economic Analysis,  Washinaton, D C  GPO
 Number  EP1.2:P81/950-020.   July 1972.   543  pages  (may be  purchased
                                                           Off1ce>
                                  55

-------
   UNITED STATFS TOTAL
Table  6-1.
   POPULATION.  KICYEAR
   PER CAPITA  MCOE  (196711.
   »ER CAPITA  INCOME  RELATIVE  (US'1.001

   TOTAL  EMPLOYMENT
   EMPLOYMENT/POPULATION RATIO
   TOTAL PERSONAL  INCOME »

   '0T-.L EARNINGS

    AGRICULTURE. FORESTRY 6 FISHERIES
      AGRICULTURE
      FORESTRY t FISHERIES

    MINING
      MET1L
      COAL
      CRUDE PFTHOLEU* t NATURAL GAS
      NONMETALLIC. EXCEPT  FUELS

    CONTRACT CONSTRUCTION

    MANUFACTURING
      FOCC (, KINDRED  ORCCUCTS
      TEXTILF-MILL  PRODUCTS
(J-l   APPSSEL  6  OTHER  FA6MIC PRODUCTS
CT>   LUMBER PRODUCTS  4,  FURNITURE
      PAPER  {.  ALLIED PRODUCTS
      PRIMING !,  PUBLISHING
      CHCMICALS  6  ALLIED PRODUCTS
      PETHCLEUI-  RFFINING
      PR[M»PY  *ETAIS
      FABRICATED METALS (, ORDNANCE
      MACH.'NEPY, EXCLUDING ELECTRICAL
      ELECTRICAL HAC«INFRY 6 SUPPLIES
      TOTAL  MACHINERY  (1950 ONLY)
      MOTOR  VEHICLES 6 ECUIPMENT
      TRANS. TCUIP., EXCL.  MTR. VEMS.
      OTHEN MANUFACTURING

   TRANS., COCM. s, PUBLIC  UTILITIES

   WHOLESALE t RETAIL TRACE

   FINANCE, INSURANCE 6 REAL  ESTATE

   SERVICES

   GOVERNMENT
     CIVILIAN GOVERNMENT
     *R*EC FORCES
SELECTED YEARS, 1950-2020 •""""" "•=> '"«i"L AM; PKCJECTED.
1950
151,871,000
2.065
1.00
57.474.912
.38

313.569.016
258.747,759
23.597.264
23.131,448
465,815
5.145.232
547.307
2,284.452
1.734,785
562.841
15.433,087
74,8171,598
8,050, J58
5.090,329
4,533,807
4.749.634
2.507,683
4,237.257
J.653.5'2
1.433.283
6.696.935
5,431,271
11,872,590
4.618,238
2,629.937
9.151.692
21.131.02S
48.939.614
10.911.234
28.904,344
29.818.358
23.930.883
5,887,475
1959
177.124.000
2.441
1.00
66.372.&4«
.37

432.349.206
355.766.604
17.042.358
16. 691. 335
351.02)
5.149,264
645.480
1.260.931
2.357.008
885.796
21 .852.640
107,255.073
10,570.806
4,243,747
4,995,059
5.222,319
3.896,797
6.046.717
6,198.112
1.835.803
9.143,450
9 .099 .387
10.653,431
9,394.820
5.367,607
7.572.338
13.014,674
27.392,039
63,499.623
18.109.611
45.244,956
SO. 221. 040
40.409.800
9.811.240
1968
199.793.000
3.304
1.00



660.045.911
529,653.952
18.415.005
18.131.1 77
239.828
5.274,946
7U.223
1.182.615
2.449.220
923,808
31 ,676,705
155. 60', 03-
12,576.266
5,380.174
6.775.178
6, 69'. 946
5,409.1; 1
8.257.C66
9.672.343
2.405,777
12.273, 130
14.058. 155
17,424,504
15.285.178
10,370,327
11,004,595
IK. 018. 226
36.552.940
87,077,150
27,739.804
77.2*5,516
90.070.855
74,970,068
15.100.787
1970
203.793.00C
3.466
l.OC


IN THOUSANDS
706. 33- .832
560.822.337
18.5-9.767
1B.276. 144
273,623
5.819.015
87H.776
1.439.282
2,592.123
908.334
34,1-9,358
155.604.386
13.057,362
5,306,24*
6.476.77C
6.537.772
5.637.7 rs
8.329.307
10.204.935
2,539.078
12.299.J2I
13.532.701
16.003. -05
15.484,661
7.961 .936
11.275.556
18.517.056
39.733.207
9J.266.904
29.360.297
85.174.919
99.104.484
84.120.212
14.984,272
197!
218.629.700
4.1C5
1.00


Cr 1967 t
897,399.600
714.962.500
19 .940.900
19.600.500
331 ,7CO
6, 36S. 700
892,600
1,503.400
2.841 ,100
1.12J, 900
43,261,300
201.011,000
15,015.000
6. 529. 500
8.250.500
8.131 <600
7.159.600
10,679,200
12,990.600
2.870,700
14.599. 300
16,642,200
23. 136. -00
21.324.500
12,046,400
15.025.000
23.96-.eOO
47.666.400
119.099.400
36)776.100
111.912.700
127.857.800
110, J35, 600
17,193.800
1980
2J4.208.000
4.765
1.00

93.320.000
.*0

1 .1 15.89S.300
881 ,560.000
19.855.300
19.449,200
406,100
7,284.300
970,100
1.755.000
3.210,200
1.348.800
52.4S6.600
240,193,300
17.134,700
7,536,000
9,704,000
9.43(1.000
8.699.500
13.030.100
16.041 ,000
3.234,200
16.173.700
23,374.500
27,352.400
2*. 040. 100
15.187.500
17.301.aOO
29.175.000
56.816,900
148.563.600
45.110.800
145.219.500
169.229.300
146.378.400
18.850.800
1985
251,355.700
5.420
I. 00

100.155.000
.40

1 .362.435.800
1.070.361 .900
20.704.000
20.236.500
465.300
7.96.1,800
1.089.200
1.371.800
3.452.200
1.550,000
63.741,700
285 ,86- ,800
19,249,500
8.544.500
11 .142.900
10. 797,800
10,431,900
15.612,300
1 9,446,900
17,932,700
28,402,500
33,367,300
33,al3,500
17,892.600
20.577,300
35,065,500
47.436.000
180.821 ,400
54,385,000
182.753.700
206.601,000
185.024.700
21,472. 200
1990
269.759.000
6.166
I. on
106.91 7.00C
.40


1.300. 309.200
21.055.500
533, ICO
B.713.20C
I. 223. 00?
1.996.400
3,712.500
1 ,731,300
77, -10,200
339.09'J. 'CO
21 ,62"!.20r
>68dtCOt
i2, 795. 303
12, 32', 300
12.509.200
18. 63-. 600
23.575,900
4,083.100
19. 882. IOC
34,512.100
39,973,900
41 ,784,900
2i.079.50C
24.472,800
42.145,300
80,039* 300
220,080.800
65.565.700
229.988.500
258.331.700
233,873.700
24.458.000
2000
306.782.00C
8,289
1 .OC
124,641,000
.41


1>97C. 733. 6CC
25.-9S.30C
24.78-.OOC
709.300
10.7I0.8CC
I. 57-, 300
2.33r.-00
4.362. 100
2.442,500
1 17.1I7.60C
492.557.JOC
28.070.90C
12.H43.30C
17.-33.30C
18.i3o.20C
2 7. 38 I. 100
3S.595.50C
5.29Q.JOC
25*017. -DC
52,3uO,10C
59.1'5,40C
65.70,3, TOG
30.237.80C
35.7J2.BOC
62.699.80C
116.398. 000
335.481.20C
98.040.200
368.579.200
406.360.000
J74.582.20C
31.777.700
2020
J99.01j.OOC
14.260
1.00
163.622.000
.41


4.347,216.000
4"., -57. 500
43.241,400
1. 2U.1DO
J6.Pl 1,500
J.t>0o»100
3, 09-, 700
5,75l ,200
4. 561, -00
2 5b » 40 •• ,OOC
I .02u.SC ' . '1C
22,501,000
32. 31 4 .900
50. Cl . ,000
39. 616,900
5', 774, 500
'8,190,500
8 ,'-CK,»00
49*05 1 .SOO
li5.375.2UO
1" 3 *81C » 300
61. 292, 500
134. 663.100
241 . 305 ,600
746.467,800
212.1 59,200
876.784,700
'(32. 716,100
879.295.900
53.420.200

-------
     Table 6-2 lists SMSAs alphabetically by states.   Table 6-3 lists the
Standard Metropolitan Statistical  Areas and indicates the constituent
counties as of January 7, 1972.  The projections of demographic and eco-
nomic indicators, done by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Depart-
ment.of Commerce, were mac"> on the basis of SMSAs as  they were defined
as of January 7, 1972.
     The following SMSA designation differs from the  official  designation
of the Office of Management and Budget in one respect:  SMSAs  in the
New England States are officially defined on a township, rather than a
county basis; BEA projections for these New England SMSAs, however, are
based upon geographic areas which are defined on a whole-county basis.
Thus, for example, the Fitchburg-Leominster, Mass. SMSA and the
Worcester, Mass., SMSA are combined in the BEA projections into one area,
Worcester County, even though the Fitchburg-Leominster SMSA officially
includes several townships from another county (Middlesex), and portions
of Worcester County are not officially located in either SMSA.
                                  57

-------
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 in

CO

CO


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CVJ




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 ro
                                            •—I UJ Q t/I _|
                                            r D a t/i •- «
                                            a _t oo z m
                                            — o -j < u o
                                            OJ o u. O X 3E.
                                                                             i I a.
                                                                             "»- 4  •
                                                                             ( t  1 ^
                                                                             co   • tr
5DEN GROVE. CALIF.
38 ANAHEIM-SANTA ANA.OA
6 BAKERSFIlLU. CALIF.
i<) FPESNU. CALIF.

:M, CALIF,
.NTURA, CALIF.
NO-ONTAHIO. CALIF
)9 LOS AN6FLES-LONO BEA
2 MODESTO. CALIF.
5 OXNAHO-Slm VALLEV-V
6 HIVEP.SIUt.SAN BERNAO
6 SACRAMENTO. CALIF.

u.
_i
«
w
>•
3 SALINAS.SE.ASJBE-MONTI
7 SAN OieCjO, CALIF.

u.
_j
<
u
g SAN FRANCIiCO-OAKLANC
9 SAN JOSt, CALIF.

ARIA-LOMPOC. CALI
1 SANTA BAPBAMA. SANTA >
5 SANTA CPU^, CALIF.

                                                                                                                                                        a o o
                                                                                                                                                        a j _j
                                                                                                                                                        u^ o o
                                                                                                                                                           <*> w

                                                                                                                                                        §..
                                                                                                                                                        < a o
                                                                                                                                                        Z uJ J
                                                                                                                                                        O > «
                                                                                                                                                        -J Z UJ
                                                                                                                                                        O uj D

-------
                                           Table 6-2   (Continued) .
  STATE
ILLINOIS
               B.E.A SMS* CODE AND TITLE
               CONTINUED
                                ILL.
          ))3   CHAMPAIGN.URBANA,
          33E   CHICAGO.  ILL.
          3*7   D»VENPORT-BOCK ISLANO-MOHNE. IOWA-ILL.
          349   DECATUR.  ILL.
          448   PEORIA.  ILL.
          *67   ROCKFQRD.  ILL.
          471   ST. LOUIS. MO.-ILL.
          490   SPRINGFIELD,  ILL.
                                                           PAGE
 9*
lot
126
132
348
39*
40Z
4*»
            STATE        B.E.A SMSA CODt AND TITLE



          LOUISIANA      CONTINUED


                    4S5  SHREVEPORT. LA.
                                                                                                                                 PAGE
MAINE
                                                                                940
                                                                                939
                         LEWISTON-AUBURN, MAINE
                         MORTLAND-SOUTH PORTLAND. MAINE
                                                            25*
                                                            362
INDIAN'.
IOWA
KANSAS
          309   ANDERSON,  |HD.                                 3«
          339   CINCINNATI, OHIO-KY.-IND.                     108
          359   EVANSVILLE. 1NU.-KY.                          l»»
          367   FORT  WAYNE, 1NU.                              1"
          372   GARY-HAMMOND-EAST CHICAGO. IND,               U»
          319   INDIANAPOLIS,  IND.                            212
          529   LAFAYETTE-WEST LAFAYETTE, INO.                2(J8
          410   LOUISVILLE, KY.-IND,                          270
          427   MUNCIE,  IND.                                  306
          48t   SOUTH BEND, INO.                              **2
          501   TEDRE HAUTE,  INO.                             *68
          332   CEDAR  RAPIDS,  IOWA                             92
          347   DAVENPORT-ROCK  ISLAND-MOLINE, IOWA-ILL.       126
          351   DES  M01NES,  IOWA                              136
          353   DUBUUUE,  IOWA                                 140
          443   OMAHA, NEBR.-IOWA                             334
          416   SIOUX  CITY,  lUxA-NEBR.                        »38
          515   WATERLOO.  IO»A                                *»6
          392   KANSAS  CITY, HO.-HANS.                        226
          504   70PEKA,  KANS.                                 *'*
          511   WICHITA,  KANS.                                S02
                                                                      MARYLAND
                    317  BALTIMORE, MD.
                    513  WASHINGTON, C.C.-MO.-VA.
                    521  WILMINGTON. DEL.-N.J.-MD.
          MASSACHUSETTS
                                                                                934  BOSTON.  MASS.
                                                                                935  FALL RIVER-NEW  BEDFORD, MASS.
                                                                                936  PITTSFIELD.  MASS.
                                                                                937  SPRINGFIELD-CHKOPEE-HOLYOKE. MASS.
                                                                                938  WORCESUR-HTCHBURG.LEOMINSTER, MASS.
          MICHIGAN
                    310  ANN ANBOR, MICH.
                    552  BATTLE CREEK, M|CH.
                    319  BAY CITY, MICH.
                    352  DETROIT, MICH.
                    364  FLINT, MICH.
                    373  GRAND RAPIDS, MICH.
                    386  JACKSON, MICH.
                    391  KALAMA200, MICH,
                    398  LANSING-EAST LANSING, MICH.
                    428  MUSKEGON-MUSKEGON HEIGHTS, MICH.
                    469  SAGINAW, MICH.
                    503  TOLEDO. OHIO-MICH.
                                                            494
                                                            510
                                                                        78
                                                                       156

                                                                       360
                                                                       454

                                                                       514
                                                             40
                                                             6U
                                                             62
                                                            133
                                                            162
                                                            Ian
                                                            214
                                                            224
                                                            2*6
                                                            30)1
                                                            398
                                                            472
KENTUCKY
                                                                      MINNESOTA
          339  CINCINNATI, OHIO-KY.-IND.
          359  EVANSVILLE. INU.-KY.
          3«3  HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND. W.VA..KY.-OHIO
          404  LEXINGTON, KY.
          410  LOUISVILLE. KY.-1NO.
          5*3  OKENSBORO, KY.
ion
154
208
256
270
33«
          354  DULUTH-SL'PtXIOR.  MJNN.-WIS.
          361  FARbO-MOORkHbAD.  N.DAK.-MINN.
          423  MJNNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL,  MINN.
          545  ROCHESTER.  MINN.
142
158
296
390
LOUISIANA
                                                                      MISSISSIPPI
          551   ALEXANDRIA, LA.
          318   BATON  ROUGE. LA.
          395   LAFAYETTE, LA.
          396   LAKE CHAULES, LA.
          425   MONROE.  LA.
          434   NEW ORLEANS. LA.
 26
 58
236
240
302
316
                                                                                535
                                                                                317
MISSOURI
                         BILOXl-OULFPORT, MISS.
                         JACKSON, MISS.
                                                             68
                                                            216
                                                                                539  COLUMBIA,  MO.
                                                            59

-------
                                                 Table  6-2  (Continued).
   STATE        B.C.A SMSA CODE AND TITLE
 MISSOURI       CONTINUED


           392  KANSAS CITY. MO.'KANS.
           470  ST. JOSEPH, MO.
           471  ST. LOUIS, MO.-ILL.
           491  SPRINGFIELD. MO.
                                                            PAGE
226
400
402
490
STATE
NEM YORK



563
466
497
B.E.A SMSA CODE ANI
CONTINUED
POUGHKEIPSIE, N.Y.
ROCHESTER, N.Y.
SYRACUSE. N.Y.
                                                                                 510   UTICA.ROME, N.Y.
                                                                                                                                  PAGE
                                                            366
                                                            392

                                                            460
                                                            466
 MONTANA
 NEBRASKA
           321  BILLINGS, MONT.
           374  GREAT FALLS, MONT.
          406  LINCOLN, NEBR.
          443  OMAHA, NEBH.-IOwA
          466  SIOUX CITY, lOWA'NEBR.
 66
190
260
334
438
NORTH CAROLINA


          311
          336
          355
          362
          S57
          376
          461
          S22
ASHEVILLE. N.C.                                44
CHARLOTTE, N.C.                                100
DURHAM, N.C.                                   144
FAYETTEV1LLE,  N.C.                             160
GASTONIA. N.C.               •                186
GREENSBORO-WINSTON-SALEM-HIGH POINT,N.C.       194
RALEIGH, N.C.                                  376
WILMINGTON. N.C.                               512
NEVADA
                                                                       NORTH  DAKOTA


                                                                                 361   FARGO-MOOREHEAO, N.DAK..MINN.
          400  LAS VEGAS, NEV.
          463  RENO, NEV.
NEN HAMPSHIRE


          941  MANCHESTER, N.H.
NEW JERSEY
          305  ALLENTOWN-BETHLEHEM-EASTON.  PA.-N.J.
          313  ATLANTIC CITY, N.J.
          389  JERSEY CITY, N.J.
          560  LONG BRANCH.ASBUBY PARK,  N.J.
          561  NEW BRUNSMICK.PERTH  AMBOY-SAYREVILLE, N.J.
          436  NEWARK. N.J.
          446  PATERSON-CLIFTON-PASSAIC.  N.J.
          449  PHILADELPHIA, PA..N.J.
          505  TRENTON, N.J.
          536  VINELANO-MILLVILLE'BRIDGETON, N.J.
          521  WILMINGTON.  DEL.-N.J.-MO.
NEW MEXICO
250
380
                                                            280
 28
 48

220
264

312
320
344

352
476

490
510
                                                                       OHIO
                                                                      OKLAHOMA
          301   AKRON,  OHIO
          331   CANTON,  OHIO
          339   CINCINNATI, OHIO-KY,-IND.
          340   CLEVELAND, OHIO
          344   COLUMBUS, OHIO
          348   DAYTON,  OHIO
          378   HAMILTON-MIDOLETOWN. OHIO
          383   HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND, W.VA..KY..OHIO
          405   LIMA, OHIO
          408   LORA1N-ELYRIA, OHIO
          530   MANSFIELD, OHIO
          562   PARKEHSBURG.MAHIETTA, W.VA..OHIO
          492   SPRINGFIELD, OHIO
          495   STEUBENVILLE-WE1RTON, OH10.W.VA.
          503   TOLEDO,  OHlo-MICH.
          517   WHEELING, W.VA.-OHIO
          526   YOUNGSTOWN-WARHEN. OHIO
                    366  FORT SMITH, AUK,-OKLA,

                    402  LAkTON. OKLA.

                    442  OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLA.

                    507  TULSA, OKLA.
                                               18
                                               90
                                              108
                                              110
                                              120
                                              128
                                              198
                                              208
                                              258
                                              266
                                              282
                                              342
                                              452
                                              456
                                              472
                                              500
                                              520
                                                            170
                                                            252

                                                            3J2
                                                            480
          304  ALBUQUERQUE,  N.MEX.
NEW YORK
                                                                      OREGON
          303  ALBANY-5CHCNECTADY-TROY, N.Y.
          322  BINGHAM10N,  N.Y.-PA.

          330  BUFFALO,  N.Y.
          554  ELMIRA, N.Y.
          435  NEW  YORK,  N.Y.
 22
 70
 86
148

318
          358   EUGENt-SPHlNGFIELD, OREG,
          456   PORTLAND, OHEG.-WASH.
          472   SALEM, OREG.
                                              152
                                              364
                                              404
                                                                 60

-------
                                                  Table  6-2 (Continued) .
    STATE
  PENNSYLVANIA
                 B.C.A  SMSA CODE AND TITLE
            30!  ALLENTOhN-BETHLEHfM.EASTON. PA..N.J
            306  AUTUONA, PA.
            322  BINGHAMTON, N.Y..PA.
            357  ERIE, PA.
            37?  HAHRI58URG. PA.
            390  JOHNSTOWN, PA.
            397  LANCASTtR. PA.
            4'.PORT NEKS-HAMPTON, VA.
                NORFOLK.PORTSMOUTH, VA.
                PETEHiBuRG-HUPEwELL, VA.
                RICHMOND, VA.
                ROANOKE. VA.
                WASHINGTON,  D.C.-MD.-VA.
                                                    274
                                                    322
                                                    324
                                                    350
                                                    384
                                                    388
                                                    494
TENNESSEE
                                                                       WASHINGTON
TEXAS
          337  CHATTANOOGA, TENN.-GA.
          394  KNOXVILLE.  TENN.
          418  MEMPHIS. TENN..AHK.
          429  NASHVILLE.  TENN.
          300   ABILENE.  TEX.
          307   A«AR(LLO,  TtX.
          315   AUSUt, lit.
          320   BEAUMONT-POUT AHTHUB-ORANOE  TEX
          329   «OWNSmL£-H««LIN&£N-SAN BENITO,' TEX
          538   BBYAN.OJLLEOE STATION, TEX.
          345   CORPUS CHRISM, TEX.
          3*6   UALLAb, TtX.
          J56   EL PAbO.  rtx.
          368   FORT BUPTH. TEX.
          3M   QALVESTON.IEXAS CITY. TEX.
          382   HOISTOM, rtx.
          558   KILLEtN-TEMPLE.  TEX.
          ill   LAREUo. TtX.
         »12   LUBBOCK, TtX.
         532  MCALLEN.PHARH.iOJNBURa,  TEX.
 102
 232
 288
 310
  16
  32
  52
  64
  82
  84
122
124
146
174
182
206
230
248
272
284
           456
           564
                                                                      NEST VIRGINIA
          335
          383
          562
WISCONSIN
      PORTLAND, OHEG.-KASH.
      RICHLAND.KtNNEfclCK. WASH.
       •~~~'«'~'*f"C"i\.IVt HA
 484   SEATTLE-EvtRETT, WASH.
 489   SPOKANE, WASH.
 498   TACOMA, WASH,
 570   YAKIMA, WASH.
     CHARLESTON, ».VA.
     HUNTINOTON-ASHLAND. H.VA,.Ky..OHIO
...  PARK£«SBURo.MAfl|ETTA, W.VA..OHIO
495  STEUBENVILLE-KEIRTON. OHIolw.v*
517  WHEELING, W.VA..OH10
          537  APPLETON-OSHKOSH.  MIS.
          354  DULUTI.-SUPERIOH. HINN..WI&.
          37}  GR££N  SAY,  w|i.            *
          393  KENOSHA,  wis.
                                                              364
                                                              382
                                                              432
                                                              446
                                                              462
                                                              516
 98
208
342
456
500
                                                   42
                                                   142
                                                   192
                                                   228
                                                                61

-------
                         Table  6-2   (Continued).
  STATE       B.E.A  SMSA CODE AND TITLE


WISCONSIN     CONTINUED

         541  LA CROSSEi WlSi
         415  MADISON, MIS.
         422  MILWAU
-------
         Table  6-3.  COUNTY COMPOSITION  OF SMSAs  LISTED  IN BEA CODE NUMBER ORDER
  300   ABILENE, TEX.
  301
  302
 303
              313   ATLANTIC  CITY, N.J.
 30*
 305
 306
 307
 308
 309
310
311
JONES
TAYLOR

AKRQN, OHIO

PORTAGE
SUMMIT

ALBANY, GA.

DOUGHERTY

ALBANY-SCHENECTAOY-TROY, N.Y.

ALBANY
RENSSELAER
SARATOGA
SCHENECTADY


ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.

BERNALILLO

ALLENTOWN-BETHLEHEM-EASTON, PA,

WARREN
LEHIGH
NORTHAMPTON

ALTOONA, PA.
BLAIR
AMARILLO, TEX.

POTTER
RANDALL

ANAHEIM. SANTA ANA-GARDEN GROVE,

ORANGE

ANDERSON, IND.

MADISON

ANN ARBOR, MICH.

WASHTENAW


ASHEVILLE, N.C.
TEX.
TEX,



OHIO
OHIO



GA.



N.Y,
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.


ATLANTIC

314 AUGUSTA, GA.-S.C.

AIKEN
RICHMOND

315 AUSTIN, TEX.

TRAVIS

316 BAKERSFIELD. CAL.

KERN


317 BALTIMORE* MD.

ANNE ARUNDEL
BALTIMORE
N.J.



s.c.
GA.



TEX.



CAL.




MD.
MD.
BALTIMORE (INDEPENDENT CITY) Mol

N.M.

-N.J.

N.J.
PA.
PA.


PA.


TEX.
TEX.

CAL.

CAL.



IND.



MICH.



CARROLL
HARFORD
HOWARD

318 BATON ROUGE, LA.

EAST BATON ROUGE

319 BAY CITY. MICH,

BAY
320 BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR-ORANGE,
JEFFERSON
ORANGE

321 BILLINGS, MONT.

YELLOWSTONE

322 BINGHAMTON, N.Y. -PA.

BPOOME
TIOGA
SUSUUEHANNA

3Z3 BIRMINGHAM, ALA.

JEFFERSON
SHELBY
WALKER
MD,
•MD.
MD.



LA.



MICH.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.



MONT.



N.Y,
N.Y.
PA.



ALA.
Al A.
**i. M .
ALA.
        BUNCOMBE
312   ATLANTA, GA.

       CLAYTON
       COPB
       GWINETT
       DEKALB « FULTON
                                    N.C,
GA.
GA.
GA.
GA.
                                                324
                  BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL,  ILL.
                    MCLEAN
                                                ILL,
                                              63

-------
                                  Table 6-3  (Continued),
 325
 329
 330
 331
 33Z
333
33*
335
336
337
338
339
BOISE C^TY, IDA.

ADA
BROWN5VILLE-HARLINGEN.SAN
CAMERON


BUFFALO. N.Y.
ERIE
NIA(»ARA

CANTON, OHIO
STARK

CEDAR RAPIDS, IA,
LINN

CHAMPA I GN-UPBANA, ILL.

CHAMPAIGN
CHARLESTON, S.C.
BERKELEY
CHAHLESTON

CHARLESTON, W.VA.

FAYETTE
KANAWHA

CHARLOTTE, N.C.

MfCKLtNBUfcG
UNION


CHATTANOOGA, TENN.-GA.

HAMILTON
WALKER

CHICAGO, ILL.

LAKE
COOK
DU PAGE
KANE
LAKE
MCHENRY
WILL


CINCINNATI, OHlO-KY.-IND.
CLFRMQNT
HAMILTON
WARREN
DfARbORN


IDA.
BFNITO, TEX.
TEX.



N.Y.
N.Y.


OHIO


IOWA



ILL.

S.C.
S.C.



W.VA.
W.VA.



N.C.
N.C.




TENN.
GA.



IND.
ILL.
ILL.
ILL.
ILL.
ILL.
ILL.



OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
IND.
BOONE
CAMPBELL
KENTON
340 CLEVELAND, OHIO
CUYAHQGA
GEAUGA
LAKE
MEDINA

341 COLORADO SPRINGS, COLO.
EL PASO

342 COLUMBIA, S.C.
LEXINGTON
RICHLAND

343 COLUMBUS, GA.-ALA.
CHATTAHOOCHEE
MUSCOGEE
RUSSELL
344 COLUMBUS, OHIO
DELAWARE
FRANKLIN
PICKAWAY

345 CORPUS CHRIST1, TEX.

NUECES
SAN PATRICIO

3*6 DALLAS, TEX.

COLLIN
DALLAS
DENTON
ELLIS
KAUFMAN
ROCKWALL

347 DAVENPORT-ROCK ISLAND-MOLINE,

HENRY
ROCK ISLAND
SCOTT


348 DAYTON, OHIO

GRFENE
MIAMI
MONTGOMERY
PREBLE

349 DECATUR, ILL.

MACON
KY.
KY.
KY.

OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
OHIO


COLO.


S.C.
S.C.


GA.
GA. '
ALA.

OHIO
OHIO
OHIO



TEX.
TEX.



TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.

IA.-ILL.

ILL.
ILL.
IOWA




OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
OHIO



ILL.
                                             64

-------
                                  Table 6-3  (Continued).
390  DENVER•  COLO.
                                              36*   FLINT.  MICH.

391

992
393
39«
399
396

397

398
399
361

362


ADAMS
ARAPAHOE
BOULDER
DENVER
JEFFERSON
DES MOINES, IA.
POLK
DETROIT, MICH.
MACOMB
OAKLAND
WAYNE
DUBUOUE, I A.
DUBUOUE
DULUTH-SUPERIOR, MINN.-WISC.
DOUGLAS
ST. LOUIS
DURHAM, N.C.
DURHAM
ORANGE
EL PASO, TEX.
EL PASO
ERIE. PA.
ERIE
EUGENE-SPRINGFIELD, ORE.
LANE
EVANSVILLE, IND.-KY.
VANDERBURGH
WARRICK
HENDERSON
FARGO-MOORHFAD, N.D.-MINN.
CLAY
CASS
FAYETTEVILLE, N.C.
CUMBERLAND

COLO.
COLO.
COLO.
COLO.
COLO.

IOWA
MICH.
MICH.
MICH.
IOWA
wise.
MINN.
N.C.
N.C.

TEX.

PA.
ORE.
IND.
IND.
KY.

MINN.
N.D.

N.C.

GENESEE
LAPEER
369 FORT LAUDERDALE-HOLLYWOOD, FLA
BROWARD
366 FORT SMITH, ARK. -OKLA.
CRAWFORD
SEBASTIAN
LE FLORE
SEOUOYAH
367 FORT WAYNE, IND.
ALLEN
368 FORT WORTH, TEX.
JOHNSON
TARRANT
369 FRESNO, CAL.
FRESNO
370 GADSDEN, ALA.
ETOWAH
371 GALVESTON-TEXAS CITY, T£X.
GALVESTON
372 GARY-HAMMOND-EAST CHICAGO, IND.
LAKE
PORTER
373 GRAND RAPIDS, MICH.
KENT
OTTAWA
37* GREAT FALLS, MONT.
CASCADE
375 GREEN BAY, WISC.
BROWN
MICH.
MICH.
•
FLA.

ARK.
ARK.
OKLA.
OKLA.
IND.
TEX.
TEX.
CAL.
ALA.

TEX.

IND.
IND.
MICH.
MICH.
MONT.

wise.
376 GREENSBORO-MNSTON-SALEM-HIGH POINT. N.<
FORSYTH
GUILFQRD
RANDOLPH
YADKIN
N.C.
N.C.
N.C.
N.C.
                                            65

-------
                                  Table  6-3  (Continued).
 377   GREENVILLE, S.C.
        GREENVILLE
        PICKENS
378   HAMILTON-MIDDLETOWN,  OHJO
        BUTLER
379   HARRISBURG,  PA.
        CUMBERLAND
        DAUPHIN
        PERRY
381   HONOLULU, HAWAII
        HONOLULU
S.C.
S.C.
OHIO
PA.
PA.
PA.
                                     HAWAII
388   JACKSONVILLE, FLA.
        DUVAL
389   JERSEY CITY, N.J.
        HUDSON
390   JOHNSTOWN, PA.
        CAMBRIA
        SOMERSET
39i   KALAMAZOOi MICH.
        KALAMAZOO
392   KANSAS CITY, MO.-KAN.
FLA.
                                                 N.J.
PA.
PA.
                                                 MICH.
io<:

383





384


385






386


387


MUU5TUN, TEX.
8RAZORIA
FORT BEND
HARRIS
LIBERTY
MONTGOMERY
HUNTINGTON-ASHLAND,
LAWRENCE
CABELL
WAYNE
BOYD

HUNTSVILLE, ALA.
LIMESTONE
MADISON
INDIANAPOLIS, IND.
BOONE
HAMILTON
HANCOCK
HENDRICKS
JOHNSON
MARION
MORGAN
SHELBY
JACKSON, MICH,
JACKSON

JACKSON, MISS.
HINDS
RANK. IN

TEx.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
TEX.
W.VA.-KY.-OHIO
OHIO
W.VA.
W.VA.
KY.


ALA.
ALA.

IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.

MICH,


MISS.
MISS.
CASS
CLAY
JACKSON
PLATTE
JOHNSON
WYANDOTTE
393 KENOSHA, wise.
KENOSHA

39* KNOXVILLEi TENN,

ANDERSON
BLOUNT
KNOX

395 LAFAYETTE* LA.
LAFAYETTE
396 LAKE CHARLES, LA.
CALCASIEU

397 LANCASTER. PA.

LANCASTER
398 LANSING-EAST LANSING, MICH.
CLINTON
EATON
INGHAM
399 LAREDO. TEX.

MO,
MO.
MO.
MO.
KAN.
KAN. '

wise.



TENN.
TENN.
TENN.


LA.

LA.



PA.

MICH.
MICH.
MICH.


                                                        WEBB
                                                                                      TEX.
                                            66

-------
                                   Table 6-3  (Continued).
  400   LAS VEGAS. NEV.
                                                 418   MEMPHIS.  TENN.-ARK.

402


404


405
406

4Q7
408
409

410

412

^U*****
LAWTON, 0*LA.
COMANCHE

LEXINGTON. KY.
FAYETTE

LIMA. OHIO
ALLEN
PUTNAM
VAN WERT
LINCOLN, NEB.
LANCASTER
LITTLE ROCK-NORTH LITTLE ROCK,
POL ASK I
SALINE
LORAIN-ELYRIA, OHIO
LORAIN
LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH, CAL.
LOS ANGELES
ORANGE
LOUISVILLE. KY.-INO.
CLARK
FLOYD
JEFFERSON
LUBBOCK, TEX.
LUB60CK
NEV.

OKLA.


KY.


OHIO
OHIO
OHIO
NEB.
ARK.
ARK.
ARK.

OHIO
CAL.
CAL.

IND.
IND.
KY.

•»t w
SHELBY
CRITTENDEN

420 MIAMI, FLA.
OADE

421 MIDLAND, TEX.
MIDLAND

422 MILWAUKEE, WISC.
MILWAUKEE
OZAUKEE
WASHINGTON
WAUKESHA
423 MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL, MINN.
ANOKA
DAKOTA
HENNEPJN
RAMSEY
WASHINGTON
424 MOBILE. ALA.
BALDWIN
MOBILE
425 MONROE. LA.
OIMCHJTA
426 MONTGOMERY, ALA.
ELMORE
MONTGOMERY
427 MUNCIE, IND.
DELAWARE
TENN.
ARK.


FLA.


TEX.

wise.
WISC.
WISC.
wise.

MINN.
MINN.
MINN.
MINN.
MINN.

ALA.
ALA.
LA.

ALA.
ALA.

IND.
413   LYNCHBURG. VA.
426   MUSKEGON-MUSKEGON HEIGHTS,  MICH.

•

414

415



AMHERST
CAMPBELL

MACON, GA.
8JBB
HOUSTON
MADISON, WISC.
DANE


VA.
• " •
VA.


GA.
GA.

wise.


"U5KEOON

429 NASHVILLE. TENN.

DAVIDSON
SUMNER
WILSON
434 NEW ORLEANS, LA.
JEFFERSON
ORLEANS
ST. BERNARD
ST. TAMMANY
MICH.



'TENN.
TENN.
TENN.

LA.
LA.
f* .
LA.
LA.
                                              67

-------
                                   Table 6-3 (Continued).
435   NEW YORK, N.Y.
                                                 446   PATERSON-CLIFTON-PASSAIC, N.J.
NASSAU
ROCKLAND
SUFFOLK
WCSTCHESTFR
NEW YORK CITY (5 BOROUGHS)
BFRGEN
ESSEX
HUDSON
MIDDLESEX
MORRIS
PASSAIC
SOMERSET
UNION


436 NEWARK, N.J.
ESSEX
MOPRIS
UNION


437 NEWPORT NEWS-HAMPTON. VA.

YORK


N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
N.J.



N.J.
N.J.
N.J.




VA.


BERGEN
PASSAIC


447 PENSACOLA, FLA.

ESCAMBIA
SANTA ROSA


448 PEORJA, ILL.

PEORIA
TAZEWELL
WOODFORD

449 PHILADELPHIA, PA. -N.J.

BURLINGTON
CAMOEN
GLOUCESTER
BUCKS
CHESTER
DELAWARE
MONTGOMERY
PHILADELPHIA
N.J.
N.J.




FLA.
FLA.




ILL.
ILL*
ILL.



N.J.
N.J.
N.J.
PA.
PA.
PA.
PA.
PA.
438   NORFOLK-VIRGINIA  BEACH-PORTSMOUTH, VA.




                                     VA?
        CHESAPEAKE  CITY
        VIRGINIA BEACH
440   ODESSA,  TEX.


        ECTOP.



441   OODEN, UTAH


        WEBER
                                     TEX.
                                     UTAH
450   PHOENIX, ARIZ,


        MARICOPA




451   PINE BLUFF,  ARK.


        JEFFERSON



452   PITTSBURGH,  PA.
•45    OXNAPD-SIMI VALLEY-VENTURA, CALIF,


        VENTURA                       CAL.
                                                         PUEBLO


                                                 460   RACINE. WISC.

                                                         RACINE
                                                                                       ARIZ.
                                                                                       ARK*


OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLA.

CANADIAN
CLEVELAND
OKLAHOMA

OMAHA. NEB.-IA.

POTTAWATTAMII
DOUGLAS
SARPY

ORLANDO, FLA.
OPANGE
SfMINOLE




OKLA,
OKLA.
OKLA.



IOWA
NEP.
NEB.


FLA.
FLA.
ALLEGHENY
BEAVER
WASHINGTON
WESTMORELAND


456 PORTLAND, ORE. -WASH.
CLARK
CLACKAMAS
MULTNOMAH
WASHINGTON


456 PROVO-OREM, UTAH
UTAH

459 PUEBLO, COLO.
PA.
PA.
PA.
PA.



WASH.
ORE.
ORE.
ORE.



UTAH


                                                                                       COLO.
                                                                                       wise.
                                             68

-------
                                    Table 6-3  (Continued).
  46)   RALEIGH,  N.C.
                                                   472    SALEM, ORE.


462


463

464




465


466




467


466




"Hi^fc

READING, PA.
BERKS

RENO, NEV.
WASHOE
RICHMOND, VA.
CHESTERFIELD
HANOVER
HENRI co


ROANOKE, VA.
ROANOKE

ROCHESTER, N.Y.
LIVINGSTON
MONROE
ORLEANS
WAYNE
ROCKFORD, ILL.
BOONE
WJNNEBAGo

SACRAMENTO. CAL.

PLACER
SACRAMENTO
YOLO
N.C.


PA.


NEV.

VA.
VA.
VA.
v n A


VA.


N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.

ILL.
ILL.



CAL.
CAL.
CAL.
MARION
'POLK

473 SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
DAVIS
SALT LAKE
474 SAN ANQELO, TEX.
TOM GREEN
475 SAN ANTONIO, TEX.

BEXAR
GUADALUPE

ORE.
ORE.


UTAH
UTAH

TEX,


TEX.
TEX.

476 RIVERSIDE-SAN BERNARDINO-ONTARIO, CALIF
RIVERSIDE
SAN BERNARDINO

477 SAN DIEGO, CAL.

SAN DIEGO
478 SAN FRANCISCO-OAKLAND, CAL.
ALAMEDA
CONTRA COSTA
MARIN
SAN FRANCTSCO
SAN MATED
SOLANQ


479 SAN JOSE, CAL.
CAL.
CAL.



CAL.

CAL.
CAL,
CAL.
CAL.
CAL.
CAL.



                                                         SANTA CLARA
469   SAGINAW, MICH.

        SAGINAW


470   ST. JOSEPH, MO.

        BUCHANAN


471   ST.  LOUIS,  MO.-ILL.

        MADISON
        ST.  CLAIR
        FRANKLIN
        JEFFERSON
        ST.  CHARLES
        ST.  LOUIS
        ST.  LOUIS (INDEPENDENT CITY)
                                                                                       CAL,
MICH.
            461
SANTA BARbARA-SANTA  MAHIA-LOMP0C, CALIF.


  SANTA BARBARA                 CAL.
MO.

ILL.
ILL.
MO.
MO.
MO!
MO.

482 SAVANNAH, GA.
CHATHAM
483 SCRANTON, PA.
LACKAWANNA

484 SEATTLE-EVERETT, WASH.

KING
SNOHOMISH

GA.

PA.



WASH.
WASH.
                                               69

-------
                               Table  6-3  (Continued) .
485   SHREVEPORT, LA.
                                              500   TAMPA-5T. PETERSBURG,  FLA.

466
487

468
489
490

491

492

495

496

497

498
499
BOSSIER
CADDO
SIOUX CITY, IA.-NEB,
WOODBURY
DAKOTA
sioux FALLS, S.D.
MINNEHAHA
SOUTH BEND, IND.
MARSHALL
ST. JOSEPH
SPOKANE, WASH.
SPOKANE
SPRINGFIELD, ILL.
SANGAMON
SPRINGFIELD, MO.
GREENE
SPRINGFIELD, OHIO
CLARK
STEUBENVILLE-WEIRTON,
JEFFERSON
BROOKE
HANCOCK
STOCKTON, CAL.
SAN JOAOUIN
SYRACUSE, N.Y.
MADISON
ONONDAGA
OSWEGO
TACOMA, WASH.
PIERCE
TALLAHASSEE. FLA.
LEON
LA.
LA.
IOWA
NEB.
S.D.
IND.
IND.
WASH.

ILL.

MO.

OHIO
OHIO-W.VA.
OHIO
W.VA.
W.VA.

CAL.

N.Y.
N.Y.
N.Y.
WASH.
Fl A .
HILLSBOROUGH
PINELLAS
501 TERRE HAUTE, IND.
CLAY
SULLIVAN
VERMILLION
VIGO
502 TEXARKANA, TEX. -ARK.
MILLER
BOWIE
503 TOLEDO. OHIO-MICH.
MONROE
LUCAS
WOOD
504 TOPEKA, KAN.
SHAWNEE
505 TRENTON, N.J.
MERCER
506 TUCSON, ARIZ.
PJMA
507 TULSA, OKLA.
CREEK
05AGE
TULSA
508 TUSCALOOSA, ALA.
TUSCAL005A
509 TYLER, TEX.
SMITH
510 UTICA-ROME, N.Y.
HER* i HER
ONE I DA
511 VALLEJO-FAJRFIELD-NAPA, CALIF.
NAPA
SOLANO
FLA.
FLA.
IND.
IND.
IND.
IND.

ARK.
TEX.
MICH.
OHIO
OHIO
*
KAN.

N.J.

ARIZ.

OKLA.
OKLA.
OKLA.

ALA.

TEX.
N.Y.
N.Y.
CAL.
CAL.
                                           70

-------
                                      Table 6-3  (Continued).
   512   WACO* TEX.

          MC UENNAN


   513   WASHINGTON, D.C.-MD.-VA,

          MONTGOMERY
          PRINCE GEORGES
          DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
          ARLINGTON
          FAIRFAX
          LOUOOUN
          PRINCE WILLIAM


  515   WATERLOO, IA.

          BLACK  HAWK


  516   WEST PALM BEACH,  FLA.

          PALM BEACH


  517   WHEELING,  W.VA..OHIO

          BELMONT
          JEFFERSON
          BROOKE
          HANCOCK
          MARSHALL
          OHIO


 518   WICHITA, KAN.

         BUTLER
         SEDGWKK


 519   WICHITA  FALLS,  TEX.

         ARCHER
         WICHITA


 520   WILKES-BARRE-HAZLETON,  PA,

        LUZERNE


 521    WILMINGTON, DEL.-N.J.-MD.

        SALEM
        NEW CASTLE
        CECIL


522   WILMINGTON, N.C.

        BRUNSWICK
        NEW HANOVER


523   WINSTON-SALEM,  N.C.

        FORSYTH
              525   YORK, PA.
1 tAI

MO.
MD
nw.
o.c.
VA.
VA.
VA.
VA.
ADAMS
YORK
526 YOUNGSTOWN.WARREN, OHIO

MAHONING
TRUMBULL

527 BURLINGTON, VT.
PA.
PA.


OHIO
OHIO


  IOWA
  FLA.
 OHIO
 OHIO
 W.VA.
 W.VA.
 W.VA.
 W.VA.
 KAN.
 KAN.
 TEX,
 TEX.
 PA.
N.J.
DEL.
MD.
N.C.
N.C.
                                      N.C.
          CHITTENDEN



  528    CHEYENNE,  WYO.


          LARAMIE



  529    LAFAYETTE-WfST LAFAYETTE. IND.


          TIPPECANOE



  530    MANSFIELD. OHIO


         RICHLAND
                                                   VT.
                                                   WYOM.
                                       OHIO
 531   ANCHORAGE. ALASKA


         THIRD JUDICIAL DISTRICT       ALASKA



 532   MCALLEN-PHARR-EDINBURG,  TEX.


         HIDALGO                       TEX.



 533   SALINAS-SEASIDE-MONTEREY.1 CALIF.

         MONTEREY                     CAL.



 534   SHERMAN-DENJSON,  TEX.


         GRAYSON                       TEX.



 535    BILOXI-GULFPORT,  MISS.

         HARRISON                      Mjss%



 536   VINELAND-MILLVILLE-BRIDGETON, N.J.

         CUMBERLAND                    N.j.
537   APPLETON-OSHKOSH, WISCONSIN
                    CALUMET
                    OUTAGAMIE
                    WINNEBACiQ
                                      wise.
                                      wise.
                                      wise.
                                                    71

-------
                                     Table 6-3  (Continued).
 538   BRYAN-COLLEGE STATJONt TEXAS
        BRAZOS                        TEX,
 939   COLUMBIA* MISSOURI
        BOONE                         MO.
540   GAINESVILLE. FLORIDA
        ALACHUA                       FLA.
541   LA CROSSEt WISCONSIN
        LA CROSSE                     MISC.
542   MODESTO* CALIFORNIA
        STANISLAUS                    CALIF,
543   OWENSBORO, KENTUCKY
        DAVIES                        KY.
544   PETERSBURG-COLONIAL HEIGHTS-HOPEWELL. VA.
        DINWIDDIE * PETERSBURG        VA.
        PRINCE GEORGE * HOPEWELL      VA.
            556   FORT MYERS,  FLA.
                    LEE

            557   GA5TON1A,  N.  C.
                    GASTON
            556   KILLEEN-TEMPLE*  TEXAS
                    BELL
                    CORYELL
                                      FLA.
                                                  N.C.
                                      TEX.
                                      TEX.
            559   LAKELAND-WINTER  HAVEN,  FLA.
                    POLK                           FLA.
            560   LONG BRANCH-ASBURY  PARK,  N.  J.
                    MONMOUTH                      N.J.
            561   NEW BRUNSWICK-PERTH AMBQY-SAYREVILLE,  N.J.
                    MIDDLESEX                     N.J.
            562   PARKEHSBUKG-MARIETTA,  W.VA..OHIO
                    WASHINGTON                   OHIO
                    WOOD                         W.VA.
545   ROCHESTER, MINNESOTA
        OLMSTEAD
5*6   SANTA ROSA, CALIFORNIA
        SONOMA
551   ALEXANDRIA, LA.
        RAPIDES
552   BATTLE CREEK, MICH,
        CALHOUN
553   DAYTONA BEACH, FLA.
        VOLUSIA

554   ELMIRA, N. Y,
        CHEMUNG
555   FLORENCE, ALA.
        COLBERT
        LAUDERDALE
MINN.
CALIF.
LA.
MJCH.
FLA.
N.Y.
ALA,
ALA.
563   POUGHKEEPSIE, N, Y.
        DUTCHESS
564   RICHLAND-KENNEWICK, WASH.
        BENTON
        FRANKLIN
565   SANTA CRUZ, CAL.
        SANTA CRUZ
567   SARASOTA, FLA.
        SARASOTA
568   SPARTANBURG, S. C.
        SPARTANBURG
569   WILLIAMSPORT, PA.
        LYCOMING
570   YAK I MA, WASH.
        YAKJMA
                                                  N.Y,
                                                  WASH.
                                                  WASH.
                                                  CAL.
                                                  FLA.
                                                  S.C.
                                                  PA.
                                                                                        WASH.
                                                   72

-------
                                    Table 6-3 (Continued).
571   MELBOURNE-TITU5VILLE-COCOA, FLA.
        BREVARO                       FLA.
930   BRIDGEPORT-NORWALK-STAMFORD-DANBURY,  CONN
        FAIRFIELD                     CONN.
931   NEW HAVEN-WATERBURY-MERJDEN,  CONN.
        NEW HAVEN                     CONN.
932   HARTFORD-NEW BRITAIN-BRISTOL, CONN.
        HARTFORD                      CONN.
933   NORWICH-GROTON-NEW LONDON.  CONN.
        NEW LONDON                    CONN.
93*   BOSTON. MASS.
        ESSEX
        MIDDLESEX
        NORFOLK
        PLYMOUTH
        SUFFOLK
                                      MASS.
                                      MASS.
                                      MASS.
                                      MASS.
                                      MASS.
935   FALL RIVER-NEW BEDFORD, MASS.
        BRISTOL                       MASS.
936   PITTSFIELD,  MASS.
        BERKSHIRE
                                      MASS.
937   SPRIN&FIELD-CHICOPEE-HOLYOKE, MASS.
        HAMPDEN
        HAMPSHIRE
                                      MASS.
                                      MASS.
938   WORCESTER-F I TCHBURG-LtOMI NSTER, MASS.
        WORCESTER                     MASS.

939   PORTLAND-SOUTH PORTLAND, ME.
        CUMBERLAND                    ME.

9*0   LEWISTON-AUBURN, ME.
        ANDROSCOGGIN                  ME.

9*1   MANCHESTER-NASHUA, N.H.
        HILLSBOROUGH                  N.H.
                                                  9*2   PROVIDENCE-WARWICK-PAWTUCKFT, R.J.
                                                          BRISTOL
                                                          KENT
                                                          PROVIDENCE
                                                                                        R.I.
                                                                                        R.I,
                                                                                        R.I,
                                               73

-------
                APPENDIX A - BASIS FOR INITIAL DESIGNATION CRITERIA

     This Appendix provides the technical derivation of the initial desig-
nation criteria presented in Section 3 of this report.
A.I  CARBON MONOXIDE
     The variable exclusion criteria for carbon monoxide presented in Section
3 are derived by using the model for CO presented in Section 5 of these
guidelines.  The criteria are in the form of a curve which specifies, for
a given local vehicle mix of light- versus heavy-duty vehicle emissions, a
critical CO concentration below which an SMSA can be excluded from consid-
eration as an AQMA, and above which the SMSA must be subjected to further
analysis using the techniques presented in Section 4 and 5 of this document.
The derivation of the criteria curve follows:
     The CO model presented in Section 5 of this document is represented by
the three following equations:


0.8


FT =
FL
(B-b)

FU
FL + FU
. PL Gt


= PL GL
+ b
EL H
P, H
L
EL <

h PH
h pu
H
h PH

GH EH


GH EH + PS GS ES
(A-l)
(A-2)

(A-3)
                                        100%

    where:   FT  =  Total  future (1985)  CO concentration
           FL  =  Future  concentration  due to local  traffic
           FU  =  Future  concentration  due to urban  emission
           b   =  Background  concentration
           B   =  Baseline  concentration  (measured or estimated)
           PL  =  Percent emission  from light-duty vehicles (gross  vehicle
                  weight  <  6000 Ib)
                                  75

-------
            PH  =  Percent emission  from other  mobile  sources  (gross  vehicle
                   weight >  6000  Ib)
            P§  «  Percent emission  from stationary sources
            G    =  Growth factor over the projection period, 6* f G
            E    =  Expected ratio of 1985 emission to  baseline emission for
                   a composite source.
           G*   =   Growth  factor for traffic on the local street of interest
     The "future" air quality (FT) will be set equal  to the CO standard,  and
the light- versus heavy-duty vehicle mix will  be varied for the local street
condition to yield corresponding  critical baseline concentrations.
     The following assumptions  will  be  made in  applying the model:
          (a)   Background concentration (b) =   1  ppm.
          (b)   The CO  standard  to  be considered is the 8-hour  standard of
               9 ppm  (=  FT).
          (c)   The growth of mobile and  stationary sources will be assumed
               to be 5 percent annually  (r) for urban areas.  For a 1970
               baseline,  the projection  period to 1985  is 15 years (n).
              Thus, the  growth factor is qiven by
                      G  =  (1  + r)n  =  (l +  Q.05)15 = 2.08
              Therefore, a 1970-1985 growth factor of 2.0 will be used for
              all urban sources,  so
                      GL  =  GH  =  Gs   = 2.0
         (d)  Growth  of local traffic  (G*  =   6(j)  will  be less than  total
              urban growth due  to  "saturation"  of  local  streets with  current
              traffic; assume G*   =  G*   =1.2
                               L      H
                                 76

-------
(e)   The emission  factor ratios from Table 5-1  will  be used;  no
     control  over  stationary sources of CO will  be assumed;  thus
              EL  =  0.08
              ER  =  0.93
              ES  =  i.o
(f)   The percent -.ontribution of CO emissions from stationary
     sources  is assumed to be 20.  The percent contribution  of
     CO emissions  from light- and heavy-duty vehicles for the
     local  street  case will  be treated differently than for  the
     urban  case.  For the local street case (F. ), the P.  and Pu
                                              L        L      n
     values will vary; for the urban case (F,,), assume P.  =  70
     and PH = 10.   In either case,  since PS = 20, P.  + PH =  80.
          For the  local case, Equation (A-2) is used; inserting
     the values assumed above yields
            F         P  (1.2)(0.08)  + P  (1.2)(0.93)
0.8 (B-l) ' 80

FL = (B-i)
P. (0.077) +
L

PU (0.89)
n
L 80 J
          For the urban case,  Equation (A-3) is used, yielding
       FU       (70)(2.0)(O.Q8) + (10)(2.0)(0.93) + (20)(2.0)(1 .0)
    0.2 (B-l)-'                     100
       FU       =  (B-l)(0.140)
          From Equation A-l ,
                FT  =  FL  +    FU  +  b
          Inserting the above  values yields
9  = (B-l)
            P,  (0.077)  +  PH (0.89)
                                           1
                                           _J +
                         77

-------
                or
                    R ~
                         ]PL (0.077)  +  P  (o.89)
                                        80
                Substituting varying values of PL and PH yields the corre-
           sponding values of B given in Table A-l .   From these values,  the
           criteria curve given as Finure 3 is derived.
                There is no initial  inclusion threshold  for CO.   As a  result,
           any area which is not automatically excluded  must be subjected  to
           further analysis as indicated in Sections  4 and 5.
 A. 2  TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICIPATES
      Nationwide emissions of TSP  are not expected to increase.   The combina-
 tion of SIP requirements  for existing source emission reduction, attrition
 of existing sources, and  the requirement that new sources  meet  NSPS should
 result  in  a continuing  decrease in  TSP  emissions through  1985.   Therefore,
 areas in which  all  NAAQS  for TSP  are presently being  met  need not  be desig-
 nated as AQMAs  for  TSP.
      There is no  inclusion  threshold  for TSP  other than the projected viola-
 tion of a  NAAQS in  1985.  Those areas in which a "reasonable time" for
 attainment of a secondary NAAQS for  TSP  extends beyond 1985 must be declared
 AQMAs for  TSP.  For  other areas currently exceeding NAAQS for TSP,. the ana-
 lytical  techniques presented  in Section  5 may be used to project TSP
 concentration to 1985.
A. 3  SULFUR OXIDES
     Nationally, most SIP requirements for control  of S02 in urban areas
have been implemented.  Control methods for S0x emissions are not as advanced
as controls for TSP.  Consequently,  growth  of SO  sources may result in  a  net
                                   78

-------
Table A-l.  SOLUTIONS TO EQUATION
8
B = (VL (0.077) + PH (0.89)>y
L\ «° / -
Percent Contribution
of LDV Emissions to
Total Local Street
Vehicle Emissio.is
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100



PL
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72
80
+ 0.140



PH
80
72
64
56
48
40
32
24
16
8
0

+1



B 	
8.8
9.4
10.2
11.2
12.3
13.8
15.7
18.3
22.1
27.8
37.9
              79

-------
  increase of S0x emissions even though NSPS for S0v are applied to new
                                                  J\
  sources.  Therefore, an indicator of growth is contained in the exclusion
  criteria for SO .
                /\
      If the product of the highest measured S02 concentration of each
 averaging time and a growth factor based on projected SMSA total  earnings
 is less than any NAAQS for S02, the area may be excluded as an AQMA for S02.
 Total earnings in the SMSA was selected as the best indicator of emission
 growth potential  that is readily available.  The growth factor is computed
 from
            6 -  (1   +  r)n      V85
                      T0~0~     "  V.
                                  D
      Where
          G   =   Relative  growth  factor
          r   =   Growth  rate,  %/year
          n   =   number  of years  between  the  base year  and  1985
          V85  =   Value in  dollars  of total  earnings  in  1985
          Vb   =  Value in  dollars  of total  earnings  in  base year
      The  inclusion criteria for S02 are identical to  those for TSP.
A.4   PHOTOCHEMICAL OXIDANTS
      All areas for which transportation controls are  required for oxidants
must  be designated AQMAs for oxidants.  Although Mobile Source Performance
Standards (MSPS) and NSPS for hydrocarbons will lower  oxidant concentrations
below NAAQS by 1985 in some areas, other areas, particularly those with high
stationary source HC emissions, may have difficulty meeting NAAQS without
further HC emission control.   It is therefore considered prudent to subject
areas requiring special  HC emission control (i.e., transportation control
                                   80

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 areas) to the air quality maintenance analysis required following AQMA
 designation.
      An area may be excluded from AQMA designation if (1) it is not a
 transportation control area for oxidants, and (2) measured peak hourly
 oxidant concentration is less than twice the NAAQS for oxidants (0.16 ppm
            3
 or 320/xg/m ).  This latter exclusion threshold is arrived at through the
 following reasoning.
      The combination of MSPS,  NSPS, and growth is expected to result in
 about a 55 per cent reduction in HC emission from the average metropolitan
 area by 1985.   Both Appendix J  and proportional  models indicate that a 55
 per cent HC  emission reduction  should produce a  55 per cent  oxidant concen-
 tration reduction.   Furthermore, the reduction in the HC/NO   ratio,  which is
                                                           X
 the likely consequence of present and expected emission  control  regulations,
 should  reduce  oxidant  concentrations even more than predicted by Appendix J
 or proportional modeling.   It follows  that an  area presently exhibiting  less
 than  double  the NAAQS  for  oxidant should  achieve flAAns by 1985 provided MSPS
 and NSPS are effectively  applied and  enforced.
      Areas which exhibit  oxidant concentrations above  320 ^g/m3  but  are  not
 subject to transportation controls may estimate 1985 oxidant  concentration
 using the methods presented  in Section 5.
 A.5   NITROGEN DIOXIDE
      Future N02 concentrations were projected by EPA for all   regions likely
 to exceed N02 NAAQS.  These projections were made in connection with .the re-
examination of the MSPS for NOX>   The results of this  analysis indicate that
NAAQS for N02 are threatened only in the Los Angeles,  Chicago, New York, Den-
ver, and Wasatch Front AQCRs.  Consequently,  only the  urbanized portions of
                                  81

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 APPENDIX B - EXAMPLES OF ANALYSES FOR A HYPOTHETICAL SMSA EMPLOYING THE
                 "BACK-UP" METHOD OF ESTIMATING EMISSIONS

      This appendix presents example calculations  for carbon  monoxide,  sulfur
 dioxide, and hydrocarbons/photochemical  oxidants.   The  hypothetical  SMSA  is
 assumed to be located in a state which will  be under a  significant  burden
 and must resort to the Vack-up" method  of calculating  emissions  allowed
 after application  of  all  SIP  control  strategies.  As stated  in Section  4 of
 this guideline,  however,  the  "preferred" method is  to be  employed in most
 cases,  rather than the "back-up" method.  The  "preferred" method  is the
 method  used  by the states  in  developing  the control  strategies for  "example
 regions",  i.e.,  application  of  SIP regulations to all emissions, source by
 source,  to determine  allowable emissions in 1975 (or 1977, if an extension
 for  attaining  the  NAAQS was granted).  The "back-up" method is presented
 here merely to demonstrate  its use, but its use should be restricted to
 those states which will be faced with a heavy burden in designating the air
 quality maintenance areas.  Before deciding to use the "back-up"  method,
 states should discuss the problems of using the "preferred" method with the
representative responsible for maintenance  of standards  in the appropriate
EPA Regional  Office.
B.I.  EXAMPLE 1 - CARBON MONOXIDE
1.   Assume that the hypothetical  SMSA  has a current  carbon monoxide  air
    quality of 30 ppm, second  highest  8-hour  average per year.  Also assume
    that the  percent of local  mobile source emissions contributed  by light-
    duty vehicles (LDV)  is  80.  This percentage is below the  critical exclu-
    sion concentration of  94 per  cent  shown on  Figure 3-1.  As a result  of
                                  83

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     the 80 per cent assumption, the per cent of local  mobile source emis-
     sions contributed by heavy duty vehicles (HDV) would be 20 if the further
     assumption is made that no stationary sources contribute carbon monoxide
     in the local  area around the samplers.   Upon application of the initial
     designation criteria found in Section 3  of  the guideline,  this air
     quality does  not qualify the area  for automatic exclusion  or inclusion
     as an SMSA, since the exclusion  cutoff value is 21  ppm  for an  80 per  cent
     local  mobile  source emissions contribution  by light-duty vehicles.
     Therefore, emissions and air quality  will have to  be  projected for the
     area.   Assume that the  hypothetical area  had the 1970 emissions  of CO in
     tons  per year as shown  in  Table  B-l.
         The data from Table B-l  are then entered  in Columns A  and  B  of
     Table  B-2  as  shown.
 2.   Assume  that the  following  annual growth rates  were projected for  the
     hypothetical  area  (the  5-year  (1970-1975) and  10-year (1975-1985) com-
     pounded growth rates  are also given).
               Category               Annual         5-year    10-year
            Population                2.1%          11%        23%
            Total earnings            4.5%          25%        55%
            Manufacturing earnings    4.1%          22%        50%
3.  Assume for the hypothetical area that new power plants would contribute
    an additional  300 tons of CO per year in  1975.
4.  Place the proper emission reduction factors  from Table 4-2 in Column  C.
5.  The growth  factor for 1970-1975 is  inserted  in Column C-l.   This factor
    is obtained from the 5-year demographic-economic parameters, and is
    expressed as the ratio of the 1975  value  to  the 1970 value  (i.e., 25  per
    cent is expressed as 1.25).
                                   84

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  Table 8-1.  1970 EMISSIONS OF CO FOR HYPOTHETICAL SMSA
   SOURCE
Fuel combustion
  Power plants
  Point sources excluding power plants
  Area sources
    Subtotal
Industrial point sources
Solid waste disposal
  Point sources
  Area sources
    Subtotal
Transportation
  LDV
  HDV
   Subtotal
Miscellaneous
  Point sources
  Area sources
    Subtotal
      Total
CO EMISSIONS (Tons/year)

       1,200
         400
         400
       2,000
       7,000

         100
       1,900
       2,000

     755,000
      95.000
     850,000

         500
         500
       1,000
     862,000
                            85

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                         Table B-2.  EMISSION  PROJECTION CALCULATION TABLE FOR CARBON MONOXIDE
00
A
Source
class
Fuel combustion

Power plants
Point sources (excl
Area sources
Subtotal
B C
Reduction
1970 factors
emissions (Table 4-2)


1,200 1.0
pp) 400 1.0
400 1.0
2,000
Industrial point sources 7,000 0.10
Solid waste disposal
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Transportation
LDV
HDV
Subtotal
Miscellaneous
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Totals

100 0.52
1,900 0.88
2,000

755,000
95,000
850,000

500
500
1,000 1.00
862,000
C-l D E
Growth Growth
factor 1975 rate
(1975/1970) emissions (1985/1975-1)

1500
(=1200+300)
1.25 500
1.25 500
2,500 0.55
1.22 900R 0.50

1.11 57
1.11 1,840
1,900R 0.23







1.25 .1,250 0.55

F G
Emission 1985
factor emissions
adjustment G = 0(1 + EF





1.00 3,900R
0.40 1,100R



1.00 2,300R

83,000R
121,000K
204,000R



1.00 1,900R
212,000R
R-indicates roundinq.

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 6.  Column D is calculated for all cateqories except power plants and trans-
     portation by taking the product of Columns B, C, and C-l .   The 1975
     power plant emissions are given by the product of Columns  B and C, to
     which is added the emissions from new power plants.
 7.  The appropriate 10-year growth rates are entered in  Column E for all
     categories except transportation; these rates are expressed as the ratio
     of the 1985 value to the 1975 value, minus unity (one).
 8.  The appropriate emission factor adjustments are entered  in Column F.
 9.  Column G is computed for all categories except transportation by the
     given equation.
10.  Transportation emissions are then calculated by Equation  4-1 from Part 4:
         Q1985 =  * «>base> GiEi
          The growth rate for transportation emissions should be determined
     from available data if such exist.   If no such data exist,  use the
     growth rate for population.  For the hypothetical area,  this is 2.1
     per cent.  Therefore, G = (1 + 0.021)15 = 1.37.   E values are found
     in Table 5-1.  For carbon monoxide,  E.DV = 0.08;  and EHDV = 0.93.
      .*. Q85 = (755, 000)(1. 37)(0. 08) +  (95,000)0 .37)(0. 93)
              = 83,000 + 121,000  = 204,000 tons per year
11.  Total  Column G for a grand total of  212,000 tons  per year for 1985
     emissions for carbon monoxide.
12.  Carbon monoxide concentrations are calculated  by  the method given  in
     section 5.2.   Assume a growth  factor G* for local street traffic of  1.0
     if an  actual  value is not known.
          F   =  F   +  F   +  b
                                  87

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     -  O.S(B-b)
 For the local area assume:
 B  =  30 ppm
 b  =  1 ppm
 PL = 80.0
 G*
 bL = 1.0
 EL = o.os
                   PH  =  20.0

                   GH  =  !'°
                   EH  =  0.93
•'. F.  =0.8  (30-1)   [gPJT-0)(0.8)' + 20 (1.01(0.93)
     L                 L                        - *
       = 0.8(29)
                 fe.4  +  18.61
                 [—Too—J
                                80 + 20
       =5.8  ppm
 For  the  entire urban area:
 FU  =  0.2(B-b)
 Assume:
                           PHGHEH + PSGSES"
PL  = 87.6
              PH  -  11.0  (Refers  to  1970  percentages calculated
                           from Table B-2.)
Since stationary source emissions for 1985 have already been  computed,
PSGSES  = the ratl'° of 1985 stationary source  emissions to  total  1975
emissions or = 8,000/862,000 =  1%
    GL  =  GH  = 1-37   (=1970 to 1985 growth in  population)
•'.   F.   =  0.2  (30-1)  R87.6)(1.37(.Q8)  + (11 .0)(1 .37)(0.93)  + ll
      u                  |_                 ^           - - j
         = 0.2(29)
     FT   '  FL
                             88

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         =   5.8  +1.4  +1
         =   8.2 ppm, second highest 8-hour average
 B.I.1  Conclusion
     Since  this concentration is below the standard of 9 ppm, second highest
3-hour average, this SMSA would not be designated as an AQMA for CO.
 B.2  EXAMPLE 2 - SULFUR DIOVIDE
 1.  Assume  that the  hypothetical area has a most recent annual arithmetic
    mean S02 concentration of 150/^.g/m3, but has been projected to attain
    the  S02 secondary standard before 1985.  Since the current air quality
    concentration for S02 is above even the primary standard, the area cannot
    be automatically eliminated as an obvious non-problem area.  Likewise,
    since the attainment of the secondary NAAQS has been projected before
    1985 due to the current control strategy, the area cannot be automati-
    cally included as an obvious problem area.  Consequently, the area must
    be subjected to further analysis consisting of a projection of emissions
    and air quality.
        Note that if the current air quality concentration were below the
    secondary NAAQS for SO,,, one would compute the product of the current
    concentration and the relative growth in total  earnings between the base
    year and 1985 (the relative  growth = 1  + the percentage growth rate over
    the period of interest).   If this  product is still  below the secondary
    NAAQS for S02>  the area  could  be automatically excluded as an AQMA; if
    this  product  were above  the  secondary NAAQS for S0?,  analysis would be
    required for  the area to  determine if it should be  selected as an AQMA-
         Assume that the  hypothetical  area  had 1970 emissions of S02 as shown
    in  Table B-3.
                                   89

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Table  B-3.   1970  EMISSIONS  OF  SULFUR  DIOXIDE  FOR  HYPOTHETICAL  SMSA
         Source
     Fuel combustion
       Power plants
       Point sources excluding power plants
       Area sources
         Subtotal
     Industrial point sources
     Solid waste disposal
       Point sources
       Area  sources
         Subtotal
     Transportation
       LDV
       Other mobile
         Subtotal
     Miscellaneous
       Point sources
       Area  sources
         Subtotal
              Total
                                             Emissions  (tons/year)
250,000
100,000
100,000
450,000
 60,000
   Neg
  2,000
                                                 512,000
                               90

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      The  data from Table B-3 are entered into Columns A and B of Table B-4
  as  shown.
  2.  The same growth rates apply as in Example 1 above.
  3.  Assume for the hypothetical area that new power plants would contribute
     an additional 20,000 tons per year in 1975.  Of course, in actuality, it
     is recommended that tfrs figure be obtained from consultation with electric
     utility companies.
  4.  Place the proper emission reduction factors from Table 4-2 in Column C.
  5.  The growth for 1970-1975 obtained from the 5-year demographic-economic
     parameters is inserted in Column C-l, expressed as the ratio of the 1975
     value to the 1970 value (i.e., 25 per cent is expressed as 1.25).  For
     particulate matter and S02 from transportation sources, assume the same
     growth as that of population.
  6.  Column D is calculated for all cateaories except power plants and trans-
     portation by taking the product of Columns B, C, and C-l.   The 1975 power
     plant emissions are given by the product of Columns B and  C, to which is
     added the emission from new power plants.
  7.  The appropriate 10-year growth factors  are entered in Column E of all
     categories.   For particulate matter and S02 from transportation, assume
     the same growth as population.   The growth factors here are expressed as
     the ratio of the 1985  value to the 1975 value,  minus unity (one).
 8.  The appropriate emission  factor adjustments are entered in Column F.
 9.  Column G  is  computed for  all  categories  by the  given equation.
10.  Column G  is  totalled, yielding  1985 S02  emissions  of 406,000 tons per
     year.
                                    91

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                              Table B-4.   EMISSION  PROJECTION CALCULATION TABLE FOR SULFUR DIOXIDE
10
ro
A
Source
class
Fuel combustion
Power plants
Point sources b
Area sources
Subtotal
Industrial point sources
Solid waste disposal
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Transportation
LDV
HDV
Subtotal
Miscellaneous
Point sources
Area sources
Subtotal
Totals
B
1970
emissions
C
Reduction
factors
(Table 4-2)
--
1
250,000
100,000
100,000
450,000
60,000



Neg



2,000



0
512,000
0.43
0.43
0.57
0.37







1.00



—

C-l
Growth
factor
(1975/1970)

_ « .
1.25
1.25
1.22



—



1.10



—

D E
Growth
1975 rate
emissions3 (1985/1975 -1)

130,000
(=110,000 + 20,000)
54,000R
54,000
238,000 0.55
27,000R 0.51



0



2,200 0.23



0

F
Emission
factor
adjustment



1.0
0.4







1.0





G
1985
emission
G - D(l +Efl



370,000
34,000







2,000




406,000
   R - indicates rounding.

  'Excluding power plants.

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11.   S02 concentrations  can  now be  calculated.   Assume  that  the  area  has  an
    annual  arithmetic mean S02  concentration  of  150/xg/m3.   For  this  example,
    the incremental  version  of  the  Miller-Holzworth Model  (Section  5.4.2)
    will  be used  to  project  air quality.  Assume that this hypothetical SMSA
    has an  area of 1000  square  kilometers.  The  urbanized area is hypothesized
    to  be 400  square kilometers  (_160 mi2) and it is assumed  that 85 per cent
    of  the  emissions are emitted within the urbanized area.
         Therefore,  the  1970 and 1985 emissions  from the urbanized area,
    together with the emission densities are:
                                          1970              1985
         SMSA  (tons/year)                512,000          406,000
         Urban area  (tons/year           435,000          345,000
         Urban area emission  density
                        o
           (tons/year-mi )                 2,720            2,160
        The incremental  Miller-Holzworth  Model  is  given by:
       AX  = O.OllA  Q [3.61H0'13 + §°OS  _   (5.5 x  IP"5)  uH1'2^     (|M)
                          uH
or
       AX = O.OllA Q  (1600
        For the  hypothetical  SMSA,  assume  the  following  conditions:
        -  a mean annual morning mixing  height  of  500 m =  H
        -  a mean annual morning wind speed of  5 m/sec =/x
        -  a city size = \/400 km2   = 20 km = 12.4 mi = S

        If  1600  S/u <0.471 H1'13, Equation B-2 is used.
           1600  i2^  =  3970
                                93

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             Q.471 H]-13= 0.471  C5QO)1-13- 0.471  (1100)  = 518
          Since 1600 S/u> 0.471  H1'13,  Equation  B-l  is  used.
         A Q = (Q1985 - Wo*   =  2'160 -  2.720  = -580  tons/yr-mi2
          Inserting this AQ value  in  Equation  B-l yields:
     Ax  =0.001  (-580) [3.61  (snn?0-13 .  800  (12.4)     (5.5 x  1Q-5)(5)(500)1 '26.
                                           15J(500)   "             [TO] - -I
             = -6.38 [8.09  + 3. 97-1. 11  x 10""2]
             = -6.38 (12.1)
             = -77
          '•  X1985 = X1970 + Ax
                    = 150 - 77
                             o
                    = 73 ug/m  annual  arithmetic mean
 12.  To calculate the short-term concentrations, the log-normal  model  described
     in Section 5.4.3.2 of the guideline is used.  Assume that the most recent
     standard geometric deviation of the hypothetical  area is  2.05 for  aver-
     aging times  of 3 hours,  and  the ratio  of  the annual  maximum  3-hour concen-
     tration to the mean concentration  is 9.74.   These values  are underlined
     for reference in  Table 5-2.   Therefore, the  projected 3-hour maximum  con-
     centration is:
               (73 yg/m3)(9.74) =  710 yg/m3
B.2.1   Conclusion
     Since  710 Mg/m3  (3-hour maximum concentration) is less than  the standard
of 1300 pg/,3 (second highest 3-hour value per year) the area would not be
designated as an  AQMA for SO
                                    94

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 B.3  EXAMPLE 3 - HYDROCARBONS AND PHOTOCHEMICAL  OXIDANTS
 1.   Assume that the area has  a current  photochemical  oxidant  concentration
     of 350 ng/m ,  second highest 1-hour concentration per year,  but  the area
     is not required to have a transportation  control  strategy.   Therefore,  it
     cannot be automatically  included or excluded based on the criteria pre-
     sented in Section  3 of the guideline.  The area must, therefore, be
     subjected to further analysis  consisting  of  an estimate of emissions and
     air quality.
 NOTE:   The projection  of emissions is not presented here, since  it is done  in
 a fashion  much  the  same as for carbon monoxide.   Instead, it  is  assumed that
 total  1970 hydrocarbon  emissions were 170,000 tons per year and  that 1985
 hydrocarbon  emissions are projected  to  be 100,000 tons per year.
 2.   Section  5 of the guideline  presents the method for estimating photochemi-
     cal oxidant concentrations.  The expected emission reduction is given by
                R         =  Ebase " E1985     .
                 expected        T	   x 100/°
                                  base
                R         =  170,000 - 100,000  Y ,nrw
                 expected          170,000
                          -   70'000  x  100%
                             170,000
                          =  41.2%
3.   The required emission reduction is  obtained from the plot in Appendix J
    of 40 CFR Part 51  (published in the August 14,  1971  Federal  Register ).
    For a current photochemical  oxidant concentration of 350 ^g/m3  (0.18 ppm),
    second highest 1-hour concentration per year, Appendix  J indicates  that
    a  reduction  of 60  percent  is required.
                                  95

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B.3.1  Conclusion - Since the required reduction of 60 percent is greater
than the expected reduction of 41.2, the area would be designated as an
AQMA for photochemical oxidants.
                                 96

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 APPENDIX C - LIST OF TASKS TO BE PERFORMED FOR MAINTENANCE OF STANDARDS
                                    PROGRAM

      This preliminary list of tasks is being provided for use by the states
 to outline the work they must do in maintaining standards.  The list can be
 used to plan and schedule activities and to estimate manpower requirements.
 A more detailed description of the work to be done will  be provided in the
 guidelines which will  follow.   This list of tasks, however,  should  not be
 construed as a final  outline of the plan.
      The tasks involved  can be partitioned into three major  groups:
      I.    Submit areas designated  as AQMAs.
      II.  Analyze emissions and air qualit.y--1975  to 1985.
      m-  Develop and  submit a 10-year plan  for air  quality  maintenance.
 C.I   SUBMIT  AREAS DESIGNATED AS AQMAs
      The objective of this  group of tasks  is  to determine  which  SMSAs  and
 other areas  meet the criteria  for  designation of AQMAs.  The  tasks are:
      1.   Assemble information  on emission  inventory,  air quality, emission
          regulations, status of  compliance, and  future power  plant construc-
         tion and  fuel-use  patterns.
      2.  Apply  initial designation  criteria, using procedures outlined in the
         guidelines, to arrive at designated AQMAs.
      3.  Conduct public hearings in designated AQMAs.
     4.  Submit designated AQMAs to EPA with back-up documentation.
C.2  ANALYZE EMISSIONS AND AIR QUALITY - 1975 to 1985
     The objective of this group of tasks is to determine which areas are
really problem areas with regard to maintaining standards and, thus, which
                                   97

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areas require maintenance plans.  This determination will  be done by conduct-
ing an in-depth analysis of all the major factors that will  affect air quality
in the period 1975 to 1985 using guidelines and models to  be issued by EPA.
     The tasks to be performed here have a different purpose than those per-
formed in Group I above.  In the case of Group I tasks, it was only necessary
to identify AQMAs on the basis of specific designation criteria.   However,
Group II tasks must go beyond that and quantitatively evaluate the air pollu-
tion problem in each AQUA for the period 1975 to 1985.  The  tasks are:
     1.   Determine baseline emissions for each pollutant for which the AQMA
         was designated:
         a.  By source category.
         b.  By location as required by EPA models.
     2.   Identify principal sources (baseline and projected  to 1985).
     3.   Acquire all  necessary data to determine growth in emissions from
         1975 to 1985 by source category and location for  each pollutant.
         This would involve acquiring data on:
         a.  Past trends.
         b.  Planned  and projected economic and demographic  growth.
         c.  Projected control  technology.
         d.  Present  and future regulations for new  and existing  sources.
         e.  Meteorological  data.
     4.   Project a detailed emission inventory  for 1975 to 1985 by source
         category for each  pollutant.
     5.   Project 1975 to 1985 air  quality using calibrated diffusion models
         to be  provided  by  EPA.  Use these models to:
                                 98

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          a.   Analyze the  impact  of  indirect  sources.
          b.   Analyze the  impact  of  new  sources.
      6.   Determine  which  AQMAs are  problem areas and require 10-year mainte-
          nance  plans.   (A problem area  is any portion of an AQMA in which the
          above  analysis indicates any standard may be violated at any time
          between the date of attainment of the standard and 1985.)
C.3  DEVELOP AND SUBMIT A 10-YEAR PLAN FOR AIR QUALITY MAINTENANCE
     The objective of this group of tasks is to have the states develop and
submit a plan for maintenance of air quality in 1975 to 1985 in each AQMA
determined to be a problem area.   The tasks  to be performed by  the  states
can be inferred from the following outline of the content  of the  plan:
     1 -   Plan overview -   Each  state must prepare  a  plan  overview  document
         summarizing the content  of  the  plan; it  should  include the following:
         a.   A description of what the plan  is  about  and why it is  required,
             so  that lay citizens will have sufficient background knowledge
             to  participate  in public hearings on the plan.
         b.   A list  of documents that constitute the plan, with each document
             or  portion  thereof identified according to the  pollutant and
            AQMA it deals with.
        c.  A list of any documents or portions of the SIP, as it will exist
            immediately prior to the submission of the 10-year plan, that are
            being revised, rescinded, or supplemented by the 10-year plan,
            and a brief description  of the salient features of  such changes.
    2-   Required demonstrations
        Each  state must:
        a.  Certify  that public hearings  have been  held  pursuant  to 40  CFR
           51.4(d).
                                  99

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 b.   Demonstrate the presence of legal authority to adopt and
     implement the 10-year plan, pursuant to 40 CFR 51.11.
 c.   Provide documentation that the intergovernmental cooperation
     required by 40 CFR 51.21(a) and 51.21(c) has been established.
     Identify the local agencies pursuant to 40 CFR 51.21(b)(l) and
     describe the distribution of responsibilities among state and
     local agencies in preparing, submitting and implementing the
     10-year plan.
 d.   Describe how the 10-year plan will provide for coordination of
     air quality maintenance activities with other local environmental
     protection activities including,  but not limited to, the follow-
     ing activities:
     i.   Water planning.
     ii.  Solid waste disposal  planning.
     iii. Comprehensive and environmental health planning.
     iv.  Review of transportation plans.
e.  Describe the procedures designed  to  ensure that air quality main-
    tenance activities and programs to be undertaken pursuant to the
    10-year plan are coordinated with all  other activities  and pro-
    grams being carried out in  accordance with the applicable SIP.
f.  Provide a  description of the resources available to the state
    and local  agencies and the  resources needed to carry out the
    entire SIP  during  the ensuing  5-year period,  pursuant  to 40 CFR
    51.20.   This should include a  general  description of the staff
    that will  be required to prepare  and implement the 10-year plan
    for each AQMA, and a  proposed  budget showing  the costs  of all
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        phases of the 10-year plan.
    g.  Provide timetables that specify the dates by which classes of
        sources must comply with emission regulations.  Also, provide
        a timetable for attaining secondary standards in each AQMA for
        each pollutant under consideration in the AQMA and, if the
        timetable is different from the one already in the SIP, provide
        an explanation of the difference.
    h.  Describe the procedures used for evaluating the air quality im-
        plications of existing land use plans, transportation plans,
        and zoning maps.
3.  Maintenance strategies
    a.  The state shall  provide a detailed description of the control
        strategies to be  used in the plan  pursuant to 40 CFR 51.12(a)
        through (d).
             For each AQMA and for each problem pollutant within  that
        AQMA (as identified through analysis  in Group II  above),  the
        state shall  describe  the specific  control  strategy to be  used,
        and  show how  that  strategy will  maintain  pollutant levels  within
        the  standards.
    b.   For  strategies that will  have an area-wide  impact on  emissions,
        the  state  shall provide  a  demonstration of  that  impact.  All
        National Ambient Air  Quality Standards  shall  be  considered.
        Interrelationships  among control strategies shall  be  discussed.
        Needed  legal authority that might  be innovative,  unusual,  or
        particularly difficult to obtain shall be described.
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c.  The state shall provide results of all detailed analyses made
    to determine growth of emission sources in 1975 to 1985 together
    with the supporting rationale.
d.  The state shall provide results of all detailed analyses made to
    project emissions and air quality in 1975 to 1985, with the
    rationale supporting the projections.
e.  The strategies used in the plan may include the following con-
    siderations  as the state finds  they are necessary and  applicable:
    i.  Emission density zoninci--a  regulatory system in which the
        maximum  legal  rate of emissions of air pollutants  from any
        given land area is limited  by the  size of  the area.
   11.  Emission allocations—a  regulatory system  in which the maxi-
        mum legal  rate of emissions of air pollutants from any given
        political  jurisdiction or other area  is assigned by an allo-
        cation procedure and suitable restrictions  are imposed if an
        area  uses  up  its allocation.
  iii.  Transportation controls — including encouragement of mass
        transit  and strategies discussed in the Preamble to  State
        Implementation Plan  Transportation Controls  published in
        the Federal Register on  November 6, 1973, pp.   30606  through
        30633.
   iv.   A methodology  for  controlling  proposed  new  or modified
        buildings,  structures, facilities,  or  installation,  includ-
        ing municipal  waste  water treatment facilities.
   v.   Fuel  and energy  conservation objectives.
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   vi.   Regulatory and  other  types  of  strategies  to  integrate  air
        quality considerations  into the development  of area, point,
        and  line sources,  including zoning and subdivision regula-
        tions,  sewer and water  connection plans, rezoning and
        building plans, capital improvement programming, and open
        space reservations.
 vii.   Mechanisms to integrate air quality considerations into
        revisions of local  or regional  development plans, and
       mechanisms to ensure that development proceeds in accord-
       ance with duly adopted plans.
viii.  The effects of more restrictive emission  controls and
       new source performance standards.
  ix.  Application of  emission  charges.
   x.  Tighter  control  over construction activities,  including
       grading  and burning.
 xi.   Any other pertinent strategies which are found to be neces-
       sary and  applicable.
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                                    TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                             If lease read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
    EPA-450/4-74-001
  4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
    Guidelines for  Designation of Air Quality
    Maintenance Areas
                                                            6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
 7 AUTHOR(S)
                                                            8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO
 9 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
    Control Programs  Development Division
    Standards Implementation Bra no
    Research Triangle Park,  NC 27711
 12 SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
    Environmental Protection  Agency
    Office of Air and Water Programs
    Office of Air Quality  Planning and Standards
    Research Triangle Park, NC   27711	
              3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
              5. REPORT DATE
                January 1974
                                                              OAQPS  1.2-016
              10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
              11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
              13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
                First  of a Series
              14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
    Document was revised by  letter on February  14,  1974,
    changes were made in April  1974.	
             These  corrections and  format
   These  guidelines are to  assist the states in  identifying and proposing  Air Quality
   Maintenance Areas (AQMAs).   They contain criteria  which the states mav  use in
   designating such areas.   If the states fail to  designate such areas within the
   timetable specified by EPA  regulations, EPA shall  use the criteria developed in the
   guidelines to establish  AQMAs.
                                KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
                                              Jx^DENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
                              COSATI Field/Group
    Distribution  unlimited
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
    MA.
21. NO. OF PAGES
     114
                                              20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
                                                   N/A
                           22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
                                          104

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