EPA-45 0/4-74-014
NOVEMBER 1974
(OAQPS NO. 1.2-032)
GUIDELINES FOR AIR QUALITY
MAINTENANCE PLANNING AND ANALYSIS
VOLUME 13:
ALLOCATING PROJECTED EMISSIONS
TO SUB-COUNTY AREAS
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
'^Xy*
\y_ Office of Air and \( aste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
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EPA-450/4-74-014
(OAQPS NO. 1.2-032)
GUIDELINES FOR AIR QUALITY
MAINTENANCE PLANNING AND ANALYSIS
VOLUME 13:
ALLOCATING PROJECTED EMISSIONS
TO SUB-COUNTY AREAS
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, N. C. 27711
November 1974
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OAQPS GUIDELINE SERIES
The guideline series of reports is being issued by the Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards (OAQPS) to provide information to state and local
air pollution control agencies; for example, to provide guidance on the
acquisition and processing of air quality data and on the planning and
analysis requisite for the maintenance of air quality. Reports published in
this series will be available - as supplies permit - from the Air Pollution
Technical Information Center, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina
27711; or, for a fee, from the National Technical Information Service, 5285
Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
This report was furnished to the Environmental Protection Agency by
Argonne National Laboratory, Energy and Environmental Studies Division,
Argonne, Illinois,in fulfillment of Project No. 3, Interagency Agreement
No. EPA-IAG-D4-0463. Prior to final preparation, the report underwent
extensive review and editing by the Environmental Protection Agency.
The contents reflect current Agency thinking and are subject to clarification,
procedural change, and other minor modification prior to condensation
for inclusion in Requirements for Preparation, Adoption, and Submittal of
Implementation Plans (40 CFR Part 51) .
Publication No. EPA-450/4-74-014
(OAQPS Guideline No . 1.2-032)
11
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FOREWORD
This document is the thirteenth in a series comprising Guidelines for
Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis. The intent of the series is
to provide State and local agencies with information and guidance for the
preparation of Air Quality Maintenance Plans required under 40 CFR 51.
The volumes in this series are:
Volume !_: Designation of Air Quality Maintenance Areas
Volume 2\ Plan Preparation
Volume 3_: Control Strategies
Volume 4: Land Use and Transportation Consideration
Volume 5_: Case Studies in Plan Development
Volume 6: Overview of Air Quality Maintenance Area Analysis
Volume 1\ Projecting County Emissions
Volume 8: Computer-Assisted Area Source Emissions Gridding
Procedure
Volume 9_: Evaluating Indirect Sources
Volume 10: Reviewing New Stationary Sources
Volume 1_1: Air Quality Monitoring and Data Analysis
Volume 12: Applying Atmospheric Simulation Models to Air
Quality Maintenance Areas
Volume 13: Allocating Projected Emissions to Sub-County Areas
Additional volumes may be issued.
All references to 40 CFR Part 51 in this document are to the regulations
as amended through July 1974.
111
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PREFACE
The methodology described in Allocating Projected Emissions to
Subcounty Areas is integral to the preparation of Air Quality Maintenance
Plans required under 40 CFR 51. The three methods detailed in this volume
are discriminating enough to permit a high level of refinement in develop-
ing emission inventories for subcounty areas.
Three Orders of progressively more refined allocation procedures
are described for each of the five categories of emission sources treated in
previous volumes of the Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and
Analysis. The procedures described in this volume are directly integrated
with those detailed in Volume 5: Case Studies in Plan Development, Volume 7:
Projecting County Emissions, and Volume 8: Computer-Assisted Areas Source
Emissions Gridding Procedure. The procedures described in this document are
subject to modification and/or revision. To date, however, they represent the
best available techniques for allocating emissions to areas smaller than
counties and should be applied to all AQMAs where required emission projection:
are needed on either short- or long-term bases.
In order to obtain from this procedure the most refined estimates of
projected emissions, the user is encouraged to employ the highest allocation
Orders for which data are available (e.g., Order 3). This means that data
will have to be assembled from a variety of governmental agencies and that a
substantial amount of hand calculation will be necessary in most cases.
IV
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Allocating Projected Emissions to Subcounty Areas
Page
1.0 INTRODUCTION 1
2.0 SCOPE AND STRUCTURE 3
2.1 POPULATION-BASED ALLOCATION 5
2.2 TRANSPORTATION-BASED ALLOCATION 10
2.3 COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL- INDUSTRIAL-BASED ALLOCATION . . .13
3.0 EMISSION SOURCES 15
3.1 RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION EMISSIONS 15
3.1.1 Introduction 15
3.1.2 Data Requirements 15
3.1.3 Procedural Overview 16
3.1.4 Order 1 Allocations 28
3.1.5 Order 2 Allocations 30
3.1.6 Order 3 Allocations 31
3.2 TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS 39
3.2.1 Introduction 39
3.2.2 Data Requirements 39
3.2.3 Procedural Overview 40
3.2.4 Motor Vehicle Emissions Factors 54
3.2.5 Limited Access Highways 54
3.2.6 Order 1 Allocations 56
3.2.7 Order 2 Allocations 58
3.2.8 Order 3 Allocations 59
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED)
3.3 COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL FUEL COMBUSTION EMISSIONS . . 65
3.3.1 Introduction 65
3.3.2 Data Requirements 65
3.3.3 Procedural Overview 66
3.3.4 Commercial/Institutional Point Source 68
3.3.5 Order 1 Allocations 80
3.3.6 Order 2 Allocations 80
3.3.7 Order 3 Allocations 81
3.4 INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS 87
3.4.1 Industrial Process Sources 37
3.4.1.1 Introduction §7
3.4.1.2 Data Requirements 33
3.4.1.3 Procedural Overview gg
3.4.1.4 Order 1 Allocations 99
3.4.1.5 Order 2 Allocations 97
3.4.1.6 Order 3 Allocations 99
3.4.2 Industrial Fuel Combustion Emissions IQI
3.4.2.1 Introduction 101
3.4.2.2 Data Requirements 101
3.4.2.3 Procedural Overview 101
3.4.2.4 Order 1 Allocations 109
3.4.2.5 Order 2 Allocations
3.4.2.6 Order 3 Allocations
VI
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TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED)
Page
3.5 SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL 117
3.5.1 Introduction 117
3.5.2 Data Requirements 117
3.5.3 Procedural Overview 118
3.5.4 Order 1 Allocations 124
3.5.5 Order 2 Allocations 125
3.5.6 Order 3 Allocations 127
3.6 MISCELLANEOUS SOURCES 129
3.6.1 Introduction 129
3.6.2 Data Requirements 129
3.6.3 Procedural Overview 129
3.6.4 Allocation Procedures for Distributed Miscellaneous
Sources 132
3.6.5 Allocation Procedures for Isolated Miscellaneous
Sources 132
4.0 MASTER GRIDDING 133
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 140
BIBLIOGRAPHY 141
APPENDIX A: TRIAL APPLICATION OF THE SUBCOUNTY EMISSION ALLOCATION
PROCEDURES TO FULTON COUNTY, GEORGIA 143
vn
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LIST OF FIGURES
Number
Page
2.1 Program Scope and Structure
2.2 Municipality Subcounty Area Display
2.3 Census Tract Subcounty Area Display
o
2.4 Township Subcounty Area Display
2.5 Transportation Planning Grid Subcounty Area Display --,
2.6 Highway Department Road Map
2.7 Land Use Map
14
3.1-1 Residential Fuel Combustion Allocation Table Sequence
3.2-1 Transportation Allocation Table Sequence
3.3-1 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion Allocation Table
Sequence ,
3.4-1 Industrial Process Allocation Table Sequence 90
3.4-2 Industrial Fuel Combustion Allocation Table Sequence 102
3.5-1 Solid Waste Disposal Allocation Sequence 119
4.1-1 Master Grid Overlay -. ,,-
4.1-2 Master Grid Overlay: Insert
Vlll
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LIST OF TABLES
3.1-1
3.1-2
3.1-3
3.1-4
3.1-5
3.1-6
3.1-7
3.1-8
3.1-9
3.2-1
3.2-2
3.2-3
3.2-4
3.2-5
3.2-6
3.2-7
3.2-8
3.2-9
3.2-10
3.2-11
3.3-1
3.3-2
3.3-3
Population-Based Allocation Proportions for Subcounty .
Dwelling Unit-Based Allocation Proportions for Subcounty
Areas
Residential Building Size Distribution
Residential Fuel Use Distribution
Residential Fuel Use Factors by Building Size ....
Annual Residential Fuel Use by Building Size ....
Residential Fuel Use Allocated to Subcounty Areas
Residential Fuel Combustion Emission Factors ....
Residential Fuel Combustion Emissions Allocated to
Subcounty Areas
Motor Vehicle Emission Factors
Limited Access Highway Data
Limited Access Highway Emissions
Motor Vehicle Data Allocated to Subcounty Areas .
Motor Vehicle Emissions Allocated to Subcounty Areas . . .
Aircraft Emissions *
Railroad Emissions - Track
Railroad Emissions - Yards
Sea Vessel Emissions
Off Highway Vehicle Emissions
Transportation Emissions Allocated to Subcounty Areas . . .
Commercial/Institutional Point Source Fuel Use
Commercial/Institutional Point Source Emissions ....
Commercial/Institutional Employment -Based Allocation
Proportions for Subcounty Areas
- ar.
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
67
70
71
IX
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LIST OF TABLES (CONTINUED)
Number Title Page
3.3-4 Number of Commercial/Institutional Establishments in Subcounty
Areas 72
3.3-5 Commercial/Institutional Building Size Distribution 73
3.3-6 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Distribution 74
3.3-7 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use Factors by Building Size . 75
3.3-8 Annual Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use by Building Size . . 76
3.3-9 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use Allocated to Subcounty
Areas 77
3.3-10 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion Emission Factors . . 73
3.3-11 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion Emissions Allocated
to Subcounty Areas 79
3.4-1 Point Source Industrial Process Emissions 92
3.4-2 Industrial Point and New Source Process Emissions by Process
Category 93
3.4-3 Process Emissions by Process Category and Subarea 94
3.4-4 Industrial Point and New Source Process Emissions - Subarea
Summary 95
3.4-5 Industrial Point Source Fuel Use 103
3.4-5a Industrial Point Source Fuel Combustion Emissions 104
3.4-6 Industrial Point and New Source Energy Demand by Process
Category 105
3.4-7 Industrial New Source Fuel Use by Process Category and
Subarea 106
3.4-7a Industrial New Source Fuel Combustion Emissions by
Process Category and Subarea 107
3.4-8 Industrial Point and New Source Fuel Combustion Emissions -
Subarea Summary 108
3.5-1 Manufacturing Employment-based Allocation Proportions
for Subcounty Areas 120
3.5-2 Annual Solid Waste Incineration
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LIST OF TABLES (CONTINUED)
Number Title Page
3.5-3 Solid Waste Incineration Emission Factors 122
3.5-4 Solid Waste Incineration Emissions Allocated to
Subcounty Areas 123
3.6-1 Distributed Miscellaneous Source Emissions 130
3.6-2 Isolated Miscellaneous Source Emissions 131
4.1 Master Grid Mapping 138
4.2 Master Grid Emissions 139
XI
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
The air quality maintenance task undertaken by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency is designed to ensure that the National Ambient Air Quality
Standards are maintained after their scheduled attainment date of May 31,
1975 or May 31, 1977. The program is designed to consider the impact of
future growth and development on air quality and to develop control strategies,
where needed, to ensure that air quality will not deteriorate from the stan-
dards.
A horizon of ten years was chosen as being the most reasonable time
frame for accurately forecasting growth. The states have the responsibility
for determining specific areas, Air Quality Maintenance Areas (AQMA) , where
growth presents a potential threat to air quality and of assuring that con-
siderations for the control of this growth are included in the State Implemen-
tation plans (SIP) for these areas.
As part of the preparation of an Air Quality Maintenance Plan, the
states are required to project emissions and resultant air quality for each
AQMA. Where the analysis indicates the existence of potential violations of
standards, control strategies must then be designed for each AQMA or subarea
within the AQMA. To date, the EPA has had prepared a 12-volume set of Guide-
lines detailing procedures for developing an Air Quality Maintenance Plan.
Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 has dealt with techniques for project-
ing emissions for each county within an AQMA at 5-year intervals, from 1975
to 1985. And Computer-Assisted Area Source Emissions Gridding Procedure:
Volume 8 details some initial work that has been done toward developing a
methodology to distribute projected emissions to subcounty areas. The main
purpose of this report, which complements and supplements the above guidelines,
is to establish additional emission allocation techniques for subcounty areas
and to recommend methodologies for their use.
The principal objective of this work, therefore, is to provide a tech-
nique for allocating projected countywide air pollutant emissions to sub-
county areas. This allocation is to be achieved through use of available
data bases for subcounty units, with adjustments for expected reductions due
to air quality maintenance regulations. The development of allocation tech-
niques is subject to three major constraints: (1) the agencies responsible
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for maintenance planning (usually the state air pollution control agency) are
faced with potentially serious limitations of time, manpower, and finances
available for this work; (2) sophisticated computer capability may not be
available to the responsible agency; and (3) allocation methodologies must
be sufficient to withstand legal and technical challenges to the techniques
advanced. In light of these constraints, the following approach is directed
at providing a technically adequate procedure for Air Quality Maintenance
Planning. The appendix of this report provides the results of a field test
undertaken to evaluate the techniques presented. Techniques that do not
require computer facilities, as well as the more complex computer-assisted
procedures, are described. This is done so that an agency may choose the
set of procedures best suited to its capabilities and resource constraints.
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2.0 SCOPE AND STRUCTURE
Figure 2.1 indicates the structural outline and scope of the subcounty
allocation procedure. It is assumed that the responsible air quality main-
tenance planning agency will have completed the data acquisition and emission
projection procedures for all counties within the AQMA prior to performing
the subcounty allocation. These procedures have been detailed in Projecting
County Emissions: Volume 7 of the Guidelines. In proceeding to the subcounty
allocation it must be recognized that while additional data may need to be
gathered some of the necessary data may already be on hand as a result of
the countywide analysis. To avoid redundancy and unnecessary effort in
assembling data, it is recommended that the agency be completely familiar with
both the countywide emission projection procedures and the subcounty alloca-
tion techniques before proceeding with any analysis. It must also be noted
that in some cases the direct development of subcounty emission estimates
may supersede or obviate the need for countywide estimates, as more detailed
data are needed to do the subcounty allocation. In such cases, the emissions
allocated to subcounty areas may not add up to the previously computed county-
wide emissions. Whichever data base (either countywide or subcounty area)
is determined to be the more reliable should be used as the standard, and
the other should be appropriately adjusted to it.
The subcounty allocation procedure takes place in four distinct
stages: (1) population-based, (2) transportation-based, (3) commercial/insti-
tutional -industrial-based, and (4) miscellaneous. The separation of these
four stages allows the agency to perform the allocation using several differ-
ent types of available data bases, each of which may use different subareas
for displaying information. Data from each of the stages are combined con-
sistent with a master grid system after the emissions from each type of source
have been calculated. This procedure grants the agency maximum flexi-
bility in making use of the best available data.
Three calculation techniques are described for each stage of the
emissions allocation procedure. These techniques are referred to as Order 1,
2, or 3 procedures to indicate increasing levels of detail, complexity, and
accuracy. It is strongly emphasized that these do not correspond one-to-one
to the Level 1,2,3 analyses described in Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7
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POPULATION
SUBAREAS
ALLOCATE BY
POPULATION
RESIDENTIAL ORD
FUEL COMB. 1,2,3
SOLID WASTE ORD
DISPOSAL 1,2,3
TRANSPORTATION
ORD. I
COMM/INST non
FUEL COMB. UHU-
COUNTYWIDE CALCULATIONS
TRANSPORTATION
SUBAREAS
ISOLATE
LIMITED ACCESS
HIGHWAYS
COMM/INST-
INDUST.
SUBAREAS
ISOLATE
POINT
SOURCES
COMPUTE EMISSIONS
IN SUBAREAS
MASTER GRID ALLOCATION
MISC.
SUBAREAS
ALLOCATE
COMM/INST
Figure 2.1 Program Scope and Structure
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of the Guidelines. For example, in preparing a Level 2 countywide emission
projection scheme, it is not essential, or necessarily desirable, to proceed
with an Order 2 subcounty allocation. In the same vein, it is not mandatory
to maintain the same order through all stages of the subcounty allocation.
It is entirely reasonable to do an Order 2 population-based allocation and
an Order 3 transportation-based allocation. Criteria for choosing the appro-
priate allocation order are suggested for each stage, but, in general, the
allocation order should be chosen to fit the most detailed data that are
readily available and commensurate with the air quality maintenance problem.
There is, however, some correspondence between the Levels of the countywide
projections and the subcounty Orders. It is not reasonable to perform a
Level 1 countywide emission estimate (the least detailed and accurate) and
then perform an Order 3 subcounty emission allocation (the most detailed and
accurate). The connections must be determined separately for each stage and
emission source.
2.1 POPULATION-BASED ALLOCATION
There are a number of sources whose emission distribution may be
linked directly to the population distribution within the county being con-
sidered. For each county there are several different geographical descrip-
tions of population distribution, any of which may be used. The U.S. Censuses
of Population and Housing provide the most widely available demographic data,
although some areas have a regional planning commission, which substantially
amplifies the resolution of the Census Bureau's projection data.
The types of subcounty areas include municipalities, census tracts,
Master Enumeration Districts, regional planning districts, and townships. In
every area there are population data available on at least a municipality
basis (Figure 2-2). This information is tabulated in the Census of Population
for all places containing a population of 2500 or more. The geographical
location of these municipalities may be found either in the census publications
or on regional maps. It should be noted, however, that the municipalities may
not cover an entire county, since there may be extensive unincorporated areas.
In these cases, the total of the municipality populations is subtracted from
the total county population (also tabulated by the Census Bureau) to determine
the residual county population (the number of people living outside of munici-
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0121 5
COBS CO
SOLE - MILES
COUKTr LINES
CITY LINES
• IKTERSTATE HIGHWAYS
= RIVERS
COWETA CO
Figure 2.2. Municipality Subcounty Area Display
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pal boundaries). This selection of subareas will generally result in
delineating a small number of districts within each county, and population-
based allocations can easily be handled without a computer.
For most large, urbanized areas, the region is subdivided into tracts
by the Census Bureau (Figure 2.3). These tracts, while lying within county
boundaries, do not necessarily lie along municipal boundaries and may over-
lap several political jurisdictions. The tracts are large in the less
densely populated areas and small in centers of population concentration.
Because tracts are delineated according to population density, they portray
the distribution of a county's population at a high degree of resolution.
Nevertheless, choice of census tracts as the population-based subareas must
be made with careful consideration. In some regions the number of tracts,
though larger than the number of municipalities, is still small enough to
be managed without computer assistance (the Atlanta SMSA has 238 tracts). On
the other hand, some regions have a large number of tracts, which make hand
computations unwieldy (the Chicago SMSA has over 1500 tracts). Census tracts
should therefore be used as subcounty areas only when sufficient computational
resources are available and good detail is needed.
Master Enumeration Districts are essentially the same as census tracts
in areas that are tracted and have other definitions in untracted areas. Data
for these districts are tabulated on magnetic tape that is available from the
Census Bureau. A set of computer programs has been written to enable one to
process this information and to develop a grid system for the allocation of
area source emissions. These programs and gridding procedures are documented
in Computer-Assisted Area Source Emissions Gridding Procedure: Volume 8 of
the Guidelines. Areas in which there are active regional planning commissions
will usually be subdivided into planning districts that the commissions use
for displaying data. In some areas, these planning districts lie along muni-
cipal or census tract boundaries. In other areas, they are drawn up to meet
the specific requirements of a particular commission and do not correspond
to any other subarea definition.
In most areas of the county, a political jurisdiction, referred to as
a township, is superimposed on existing municipal jurisdictions (Figure
2.4). The townships are normally square-gridded with 36 square-mile-sections
in each. These townships can be used as regional planning districts, as in
Northern Illinois.
7
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« i [» '•' H
.'<"N"^ -
r ^—1 — >
r ' i—i J
r —J , "- j-1 •
?\y
JOOO 0 3000 6000
SCALE - FEFT
— COUNT* LINE
Figure 2.3. Census Tract Subcounty Area Display
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1
12012345
• ** H
SCALE MILES
Figure 2.4. Township Subcounty Area Display
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The main conclusion to be drawn from this discussion is that there
are a variety of subcounty areas for which population distribution infor-
mation is displayed. In any given region, there may be more than one subarea
set. Choice of the appropriate set of subareas for use in allocating emis-
sions is based on identifying which one contains the most detailed set of
information and yet is manageable within the resources of the planning
agency charged with maintaining air quality. It is recommended that the sub-
areas to be used for the transportation allocation and the commercial/institu-
tional-industrial allocation be investigated prior to making a final choice
to allow for the possibility that one subarea set may provide information for
other stages of the analysis.
2.2 TRANSPORTATION-BASED ALLOCATION
As with the population-based subcounty areas, there are a number of
subarea sets available for describing the distribution of transportation sys-
tems. In some areas of the country, the transportation planning agency may
use one of the regional planning grids for developing its data base, in which
case the population-based subareas and the transportation-based subareas can
be selected as being one and the same.
In other regions, the transportation planning grid may be developed
separately as in the Chicago area (see Figure 2.5). This separation presents
no unusual problems in the allocation procedure, and there is no need at this
point to try to convert one grid system to another.
Some regions will have no grid system that is used for transportation-
related data display and all that will be available will be highway department
road maps. This is the case in Clayton County, Georgia (Figure 2.6). In most
areas where this situation prevails, vehicle count data will be available
only for the major expressways and busy arterials.
In some instances, however, the state transportation department will
have developed traffic data on a link-by-link basis as part of the Continuing,
Comprehensive, and Coordinated (3-C) transportation planning process. The
links will generally be described by the UTM coordinates for their end points
and have vehicle count data on them.
10
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- ] — -
I """
' I '0+1
I
o
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LEGEND
OOOO — ROAO SECTION
IDENTIFICATION
1000)— SECTION LENflTM
IN MILES
L>- — SPECIAL COVERAGE
COUNT STATION
^ SEASONAL CONTROL
3 TA T ION
[>l<] — CONTINUOUS COUNT
STATION
0 — ROAD SECTION
TERMINUS
*-• URBAN AREA
CLAYTON COUNTY
GEORGIA
Figure 2.6. Highway Department Road Map
12
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2.3 COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL-INDUSTRIAL-BASED ALLOCATION
The display of commercial/institutional-industrial data is generally
in one of the forms previously described, such as census districts, regional
planning districts, or townships. An additional information display may be
a land use map of the area (Figure 2.7) on which the various land uses are
coded to indicate the distribution of activity. While this type of presenta-
tion does not rely on a grid network, it can nevertheless provide useful data
for the analyses described in Sections 2.3 and 3.4.
13
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H-
OQ
C
l-i
(1)
0
O.
c
en
(D
L
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3.0 EMISSION SOURCES
In discussing the allocation of air pollutant emissions, the follow-
ing source categories will be treated: residential fuel combustion, trans-
portation, commercial/institutional fuel combustion, industrial process and
fuel combustion, solid waste disposal, and miscellaneous sources. It should
be noted that evaporative hydrocarbon emissions are not discussed because
of the decision that hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides will be treated on an
AQMA-wide basis rather than on a county or subcounty basis. By the same
token, it will not be necessary to go through the following subcounty alloca-
tion procedures for hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxide emissions from other
sources. Nevertheless, in the interest of allowing for a change in policy,
columns for these pollutants have been included on the tables.
3.1 RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION EMISSIONS
3.1.1 Introduction
The combustion of fuel for space heating in residential buildings is
a ubiquitous source of emissions that can be directly related to population
distribution. The three Orders of successively more complex allocation tech-
niques rely on population and/or dwelling unit distributions to allocate
emissions among the subcounty areas. These techniques will depend upon the
choice of a population subcounty area data base from among those described
in Section 2.1.
3.1.2 Data Requirements
Data required for each of the three allocation Orders are as follows:
Order 1:
a. Actual and projected population for each specified area.
(Sources: U.S. Census of Population; state, regional,
and local planning agencies.)
b. County totals (actual and projected) of fuel used for
residential space heating. (Source: Table 3.1,
Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 of the Guidelines.)
15
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Order 2:
a. Actual and projected dwelling units for each specified
subcounty area. (Sources: U.S. Census of Housing;
state, regional, and local planning agencies.)
b. County totals (actual and projected) of fuel used for
residential space heating. (Source: same as for
Order 1.)
Order 5:
a. Actual and projected number of dwelling units for each
specified subcounty area. (Sources: same as for Order 2.)
b. Actual and projected residential building size distribu-
tion (classified by the number of dwelling units per
building size) for each specified subcounty area.
(Sources: U.S. Census of Housing, state, regional, and
local planning agencies.)
c. Actual and projected residential fuel use distribution
for each specified subcounty area. (Sources: U.S. Census
of Housing, utility companies, state, regional, or local
planning agencies.)
d. Total degree-days for the region under study. (Source:
Climatic Atlas of the United States.)
3.1.3 Procedural Overview
The first two allocation orders start from the premise that the county-
wide residential fuel use, broken down by fuel type, is known from the analy-
sis described in Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 of the Guidelines.
Distributions of population (Order 1) or Dwelling Units (Order 2) are deter-
mined for the chosen subcounty areas and the countywide fuel use totals are
apportioned accordingly. For an Order 3 allocation, the number of dwelling
units, building size distribution, fuel use distribution, and local degree-
day totals are used to compute a fuel requirement for each subcounty area.
The total of the areas is then checked against the county total to ensure
capability.
Each allocation order is discussed below in a separate subsection in
which all of the procedures are spelled out in step-by-step fashion. It is
recommended that the user become familiar with all of the allocation orders.
Some tolerance for repetition will be rewarded with an understanding of how
alternative data bases can be applied to the different orders. This under-
16
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standing is directly related to one's ability to justify and/or defend use of
the selected allocation procedure. Figure 3.1-1 diagrams the sequence in
which the various tables will be used in each allocation order. Some tables
are used in more than one order. Table 3.1-1 is used to develop population-
based allocation proportions for an Order 1 calculation. Similarly, Table
3.1-2 is employed in Orders 2 and 3 to determine the distribution of dwelling
units among subcounty areas designated by the user. Tables 3.1-3 through
3.1-6 are used, respectively, to establish the distribution of dwelling
unit building sizes and fuel use among the various subcounty areas. Tables
3.1-5 and 3.1-6 are used to determine annual -fuel use by dwelling unit build-
ing size, based on the degree days for the region under study. Tables 3.1-7
through 3.1-9 are used in arriving at final emission Levels; therefore, they
are employed in all three Orders. Table 3.1-7 is used to allocate annual
fuel use by fuel type to the specified subcounty areas. Table 3.1-8 provides
a format for summarizing emission factors published in the Compilation of
Air Pollutant Emission Factors (AP-42). Finally, pollutant specific emissions
resulting from residential space heating are allocated to the various sub-
county areas and recorded in Table 3.1-9.
17
-------
Allocation
Procedure
Sequence of Tables
Order 1
3.1-1
3.1-7
3.1-8
3.1-9
00 Order 2
3
1-2
3.
1-7
3.
1-8
3.
1
-9
Order 3
3.1-2
— te-
3.1-3
— ^-
3.1-4
— ^M.
3.1-5
3.1-6
3.1-7
3.1-8
— ^
3.1-9
Figure 3.1-1 Residential Fuel Combustion Allocation Table Sequence
-------
Table 3.1-1
Population-Based Allocation Proportions for Subcounty Areas
A. County
B. Year _
C. Allocation Order
(1)
Subareas
SUBAMJX TOTAL
Residual
1). COUNTY TOTAL
(2)
Population
(3)
Allocation Proportion
1.0
Residual is equal to the COUNTY TOTAL (row D, column [2]) minus the
sum of the population accounted for by all specified subcounty areas.
N
RP = TPOP - E TOP.
where:
RP = Residual population not accounted for
by specified subareas
TPOP = COUNTY TOTAL (row D, column [2])
POP. = Population in each specified subcounty
1 area i.
19
-------
Table 3.1-2
Dwelling-Unit-Based Allocation Proportions for Subcounty Areas
A. County
B. Year ^~~~^^~
C. Allocation Order2 and 3
(1)
Subarea
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual *
COUNTY TOTAL
(2)
Number of
Dwelling Units
(3)
Allocation Proportion
1.0
D.
Residual is equal to the COUNTY TOTAL (row D, column [2]) minus the
sum of the dwelling units accounted for by all specified subcounty
areas.
RDU = TDU - I DU.
;_i 1
where:
RDU
Residual dwelling units not accounted
for by specified subareas
TDU = COUNTY TOTAL (row D, column 2)
DU. - Duelling units in each specified subcounty
20
-------
Table 3.1-3
Residential Building Size Distribution
A l ount\
B. Yejr
I UkKj
D. COUNTY TOTAL
Building size categories are arbitrary. User must specify intervals for number ot dwelling units per building
based on considerations of data availability, level of detail desired and tune required for computation.
21
-------
Table 3.1-4
Residential Fuel Use Distribution
A. County
B year
I -uiocation iirdcr j
(1)
Subarea
SUBARLA TOTAL
Residual
<» ODUN1Y 'IDTAL
f2)
\nthrac
"E
=
^
ite
o
o
CL
Loal
n)
Bituminous
E
^
t
o
o
o
ol
(4 j
I i gn 1 1 e
E
3
^
o
o
g-
ol
X^ellint; Units h\ luel Use.
Oil
f5)
Distillate
"i
3
^^
C
O
o
o
i
It)
Residual
E
^
^
o
a.
QZ
Natura
Gas
f"
E
^
^L
d
O
o
I leetriLi t\
181
"I
o
a
o
Other
(9)
"i
^
c
o
o
Total
Dwelling
110)
-------
S'5r
fD
H-i
PL^
w
• w
h-"Td
I (D
w n
-^
S"
OP
t/i
H-
N
fO
n
P
r+
fD
•8
i-i
H'
(D
in
5'
s
8
n
fD
H-
rh
^
rt
fj
cn
fD
"8
n
H-
hh
H-
fD
P-
rj g 2
>-i ro §
tjg ^j (T) , v
£-5'M ^
i— K5Q O
p. H-)
I— tn
Anthracite ^
Bituminous "w
Lignite ^
Distillate 2
Residual 'c?
cr
fD TD
era o
n> i—1
0)
X
0?
f
p-
O) O
era H'
>-j t— '
0)
X
rt Z
\ rt-
>-^ &. C
^j ft) R
v_/ ffq tu
f-i i—1
0)
e
1-1
0)
"n
n
O
2
s
cn
CD
p
O
rt
O
>-i
w
X
&
^
Crt
N
fD
cr
I—'
fD
-------
Table 3.1-6
Annual Residential Fuel Use by Building Size
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation Order3~
(1)
Number of
Dwelling Units
Per .Building 1
Coal
(tons/yr)
Anthracite 73
(3)
§
•M
• H
PQ
(4)
0>
•4->
•H
s,
• H
,-J
Oil
(103 gal/yr)
(5)
n)
i— i
r-l
•H
•M
in
• H
(6)
rH
•H
Ifl
&
Natural Gas
(106 ft3/yr)
(7)
User must specify building size categories in accordance with those specified
in Tablets. 1-3.
24
-------
Table 3.1-7
Residential Fuel Use Allocated
to Subcounty Areas
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation Order 1, 2,"and 3
U)
Subarea
SUBARIA T01AL
Residual
D. ACTUAL COUNTY TOTAL
E. COMPUTED COUNTY TOTAL1
Annual luel ll^e
Coal
(tons/vr )
Anthracite ^
(3)
=>
o
c
"E
m
(4)
-------
Table 3.1-8
Residential Fuel Combustion Emissions Factors
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation orders 1, 2 and 3
rH
nl
8
^H
•H
0
(1)
Anthracite
Bituminous
Lignite
Distillate
Residual
Natural Gas
(2)
Part.
linission Factors
(3)
SO
X
(4)
CO
(5)
HC
U>)
NO
X
26
-------
Table 3.1-9
Residential Fuel Combustion Emissions
Allocated to Subcounty Areas
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation Order 1, 2 and 3
U)
Sub area
SUBA1UIA TOTAL
Residual
D. COUNTY TOTAL
missions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
(3)
SO
X
(4)
CO
(5)
HC
W
NO
X
27
-------
3.1.4 Order 1 Allocations
As the least extensive method for distributing residential emissions,
Order 1 requires only two types of data: (1) total county population and the
population residing in each specified subcounty area and (2) the total amount
of residential space heating fuel used in the county. These data are recorded
in Tables 3.1-1 and 3.1-7 and fuel combustion emissions are computed for each
subcounty area, using Tables 3.1-8 and 3.1-9.
Population-Based Allocation Proportions: Table 3.1-1
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Enter the county's total resident population (actual for past
or present year(s) and projected for future years) in column
(2) of row D (COUNTY TOTAL).
3. List all subcounty areas (municipalities, townships, grid
cells, etc.) in column (1).
4. Enter population (actual for past or present year(s) and pro-
jected for future years) for each subcounty area in column (2).
5. Total the population over all subcounty areas and record this
sum in column (2) of the SUBAREA TOTAL row.
6. The population residing in the county, but not living in any
specified subareas, is the residual population. To arrive at
this number, SUBAREA TOTAL, (row D, column (2)) and the differ-
ence is entered in column (2) of the Residual row.
7. Allocation proportions for each subcounty area can now be com-
puted. Taking each subarea separately, the population figure
(column (2)) is divided by the COUNTY TOTAL (row D, column (2)).
This proportion is computed for each subcounty area as well as
the Residual, and entered in column (3).
Residential Fuel Use: Table 3.1-7
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Enter the total amount of each type of fuel used for residential
space heating in the county in row D (ACTUAL COUNTY TOTAL)
columns (2) through (7). This information is obtained from the
countywide analysis carried out as per the instructions detailed
in Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 of the Guidelines.
(See note following.)
28
-------
NOTE: Where it is impossible to obtain coal and/or oil use
broken down by type, enter total amounts (regardless of
type) in the most likely column (e.g., columns (2)-(4)
of coal; columns (5) or (6) for oil).
3. List all subcounty areas in column (1), using the same designa-
tions and following the same sequence employed in Table 3.1-1.
4. Handling each subarea separately, residential fuel consumption
by fuel type is next allocated to all subareas and the Residual,
using the allocation proportions in Table 3.1-1. This is accom-
plished by multiplying the total amounts of fuel (by type) used
in the county (row D, columns (2) through (7), Table 3.1-7) by
the subarea specific allocation proportion in column (3) of
Table 3.1-1. The resulting amounts to be entered in columns (2)
through (7) of Table 3.1-7 are estimates for the different types
of fuel consumed in each subarea of the county.
NOTE: The SUBAREA TOTAL row is provided as a check on previous
work; it will not be used in the final computation of
residential fuel combustion emissions.
Residential Fuel Combustion Emission Factors: Table 3.1-8
1. Examine this table, column (1) specifies fuel type which is
compatible with the breakdown in Table 3.1-7 and columns (2)
through (6) indicate the five pollutants for which emissions
will be allocated to various subareas of the county.
2. For each type of fuel; locate the appropriate emission factor
from the Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors (AP-42).
Enter this value along with the unit in which emissions will be
computed in the appropriate cell of Table 3.1-8. The user is
cautioned to check that the latest edition or supplement to
AP-42 is being used as this document is constantly being up-
dated.
NOTE: Technically, National Ambient Air Quality Standards
(NAAQS) are written for sulfur oxides (SO ) and for
nitrogen dioxide (N02) rather than nitrogen oxides (NO ).
However, the EPA has consistently assumed that NO is x
essentially reduced to N02 very rapidly and all emission
factors are given for NO . To maintain consistency in
allocating emissions to subcounty areas, all of the tables
used to record emission factors from AP-42 utilize a pol-
lutant designation for NO rather than N02.
29
-------
Allocated Residential Fuel Combustion Emissions: Table 3.1-9
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C) .
2. List all subareas in column (1) using the same designations
and following the same sequence employed in Tables 3.1-1 and
3.1-7.
3. Handling each subarea sequentially, compute total emissions for
each pollutant using the following steps:
a. For each type of fuel, multiply the pollutant specific emis-
sion factor in Table 3.1-8 by the annual fuel consumption in
Table 3.1-7.
b. On a separate sheet of paper (or storage register of a cal-
culator) , keep a running total of emissions for the first
pollutant (e.g., particulates) for the subarea in question.
After summing these particulate emissions over all types of
fuel used, enter the number for the subarea in Table 3.1-9.
c. Continuing with the same subarea, go on to calculate and enter
total emission levels for sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide, etc.,
repeating steps 3a and 3b until all pollutants are completed.
d. Go to the next subcounty area and repeat steps 3a through 3c.
Continue until emissions have been calculated for all sub-
areas, the SUBAREA TOTAL, the Residual, and the COUNTY TOTAL.
3.1.5 Order 2 Allocations
As the intermediate procedure for allocating residential emissions to
subcounty areas, the second Order method requires two types of data: (1) the
number of dwelling units in each specified subcounty area and (2) the total
amount of residential space heating fuel used in the county. These data are
recorded in Tables 3.1-2 and 3.1-7, and fuel combustion emissions are com-
puted for the various subcounty areas, using Tables 3.1-8 and 3.1-9. This
differs from Order 1 allocations in that the distribution is made on the
basis of dwelling units rather than population.
Dwelling-Unit-Based Allocation Proportions: Table 3.1-2
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
30
-------
2. Enter the total number of dwelling units (actual for past or
present years or projected for future years) located in the
county in column (2), row D (COUNTY TOTAL).
3. List all subcounty areas (municipalities, townships, grid cells,
etc.) in column (1).
4. Enter the number of dwelling units (actual for past or present
year(s) and projected for future years) for each subarea in
column (2).
5. Total the number of dwelling units over all subcounty areas
and record this sum in column (2) of the SUBAREA TOTAL row.
6. The total number of dwelling units that are located in the
county but not in any of the specified subareas is the
Residual. To obtain this number, the TOTAL dwelling units
derived in step 5 is subtracted from the COUNTY TOTAL (row D,
column (2)). This difference is entered in column (2) of the
Residual row.
7. Allocation proportions for each subarea of the county can now
be computed. Taking each subarea separately, the number of
dwelling units (column (2)) , is divided by the COUNTY TOTAL
(row D, column (2)). This proportion is computed for each
subarea as well as the Residual and entered in column (3) of
the appropriate row.
Residual Fuel Use Allocated to Subcounty Areas: Table 3.1-7
1. Fill in the Table as indicated in steps 1-4 under the Order 1
allocation procedure.
2. When proceeding to step 4, use the allocation proportion in
column (3) of Table 3.1-2 instead of Table 3.1-1.
Residual Fuel Combustion Emission Factors: Table 3.1-8
1. Fill in as described in Order 1 procedures.
Allocated Residential Fuel Combustion Emissions: Table 3.1-9
1. Fill in as described in Order 1 procedures.
3.1.6 Order 3 Allocations
Order 3 provides the most extensive procedure for allocating emissions
resulting from residential space heating. It requires three pieces of infor-
mation for each subcounty area: (1) the number of dwelling units, (2) the
31
-------
residential building size distribution, and (3) the residential fuel use dis-
tribution. These data are recorded in Tables 3.1-2, 3.1-3., and 3.1-4 and
used to compute residential fuel combustion emissions in each subcounty area,
using Tables 3.1-5 through 3.1-9. This procedure differs from the two pre-
vious Orders in that the subarea fuel use is computed directly and compared
to the county total for consistency. The county total is used as a mass
balance check only.
Number of Dwelling Units in Each Subcounty Area: Table 3.1-2
1. Fill in as described in steps 1-5 under Order 2 procedures.
2. It is not necessary to fill in column (3).
Residential Building Size Distributions: Table 3.1-3
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Specify building size categories along the top row of the
table. The columns of this row are purposely left blank so
that the user can employ the best building size data at his
disposal.
NOTE: In many cases it will be impossible to fill in all of
the columns provided because the user will not have
detailed building size data disaggregated to as many
as six categories. For example, in using data from
the U.S. Census of Housing, computations will be
restricted to four dwelling-units-per-building cate-
gories : 1, 2 to 4, 5 to 9, and 10 or more.
3. Enter the total number of occupied dwelling units in each build-
ing size category for the county in the appropriate columns of
Row D, COUNTY TOTAL.
4. List all subcounty areas (municipalities, townships, grid cells,
etc.) in column (1) using the same designations and following the
same sequence used in Table 3.1-2.
5. In the left column of the various building size categories, record
the number of dwelling units in that category for each subarea.
6. For each subarea, tabulate the total number of dwelling units in
column (8). These data should correspond to the column (2)
entry from Table 3.1-2.
7. For each building size column, sum the number of dwelling units
over all subareas and record each total in the appropriate column
of the TOTAL row.
32
-------
8. The number of dwelling units in each size category that are
located in the county but not in any of the specified subareas
is the Residual. To obtain this number for each building size
category, the sums obtained in step 7 are subtracted from the
COUNTY TOTAL (Row D). This difference is entered in the appro-
priate Number columns of the Residual row.
9. Distribution functions for each subcounty area and the Residual
of the county can now be computed for each of the building size
categories. Handling each subarea separately, the number of
dwelling units in each size category is divided by the total
number of dwelling units in the subarea (column (8)). This
value is recorded in the Proportion column. Note that the
normalizing total is the total dwelling units in the subarea
and not the county total.
Residential Fuel Use Distributions: Table 3.1-4
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Enter the total number of occupied dwelling units in the county
heated with the different types of fuel in the appropriate columns
of row D (COUNTY TOTAL).
3. List all subcounty areas (municipalities, townships, grid cells,
etc.) using the same designations and following the same sequence
employed in Tables 3.1-2 and 3.1-3.
4. In the left column for the various kinds of fuel, record the
Number of dwelling units using that fuel for each subcounty area.
NOTE: In many cases it will be impossible to obtain a number for
each kind of fuel broken down by type. For example, in
using data from the U.S. Census of Housing, coal use is
not disaggregated into anthracite, bituminous and lignite.
Similarly, oil heating is not broken down into sub-
categories for distillate and residual. Where sub-classi-
fication cannot be accomplished, it will be necessary to
enter all dwelling units heated with coal and/or oil under
the most predominantly used subtype.
5. For each subarea tabulate the total number of dwelling units in
column (10). These data should correspond to column (2) in Table
3.1-2.
6. For each fuel column, sum the dwelling units over all subareas
and record each total in the appropriate column of the SUBAREA
TOTAL row.
33
-------
7. The number of dwelling units heated with the different kinds of
fuel that are located in the county but are not in any of the
specified subareas is the Residual. To obtain this number for
each fuel use category, the sums obtained in step 6 are sub-
tracted from the COUNTY TOTAL (row D). This difference is
entered in the appropriate Number column of the Residual row.
8. Distribution functions for each subcounty area and the Residual
of the county can now be computed for each kind of fuel used in
residential space heating. Handling each subarea separately,
the number of dwelling units in each fuel category is divided
by the total number of dwelling units in the subarea (column (10))
This value is recorded in the Proportion column. As with the
building size distribution, the normalizing total is the total
dwelling units in the subarea and not the county total.
Residential Fuel Use Factors by Building Size: Table 3.1-5
Table 3.1-5 is used to tabulate the amount of different kinds of fuel
used to heat residential buildings of different sizes under specified climatic
conditions. Since these climatic conditions can be assumed to be constant
over large areas, Table 3.1-5 will be filled in only once for the entire
county and these heating requirement factors will be uniformly applied to all
subareas within the county.
Lacking any more specific information the following data can be em-
ployed in generating the fuel use factors to be entered in Table 3.1-5:
1. The average heating requirement (HR) for a single-family dwelling
unit is 17,000 Btu per degree-day.
NOTE: One degree-day is defined for each degree the daily average
temperature drops below 65°F. For example, a daily average
temperature of 60° yields 5 degree-days. The degree-days
for various parts of the country are published in the
Climatic Atlas of the United States.
2. Each type of fuel has the following heating values (HV):
coal 11,000 Btu/lb
oil 144,000 Btu/gal
natural gas 800 Btu/ft3
3. Heating plants designed to burn different types of fuels are
assigned the following efficiencies (HPE) , taken from The Time-
Saver Standards
coal 65%
oil 753
natural gas 80%
34
-------
4. Normalized to an average single-family dwelling unit, the
relative fuel requirements for multi-unit buildings are
assumed to decrease as follows:
Relative Fuel Requirements (RPR) by Fuel Type
Type of Fuel
Number of Dwelling
Units per Building Coal Oil Natural Gas
1
2 - 4
5 - 9
10 -19
20 -49
50 >
1.0
.90
.78
.68
.57
.51
1.0
.90
.78
.68
.57
.51
1.0
.90
.74
.64
.49
.44
The above fuel requirements were developed from data
provided by the Chicago Department of Environmental
Control.
Employing these assumptions, the total annual fuel requirements are computed
for each building size category by calculating a fuel use factor. This
factor is computed for each fuel for each building size using the following
formula:
HR x RPR- .
FUF = ii
1J HV. x HPE.
where:
FUF.. = fuel use factor for fuel i, building size j
HR = average heating requirement for a single-family dwelling
unit (see 1 above)
RFR.. = relative fuel requirement for fuel i, building size j
•^ (see 4 above)
HV- = heating value (Btu/quantity of fuel) for fuel i (see 2 above)
HPE. = heating plant efficiency for fuel (see 3 above)
35
-------
If the above assumptions are used then the following values should be entered
in Table 3.1-5. If more region-specific data are available, then Table 3.1-5
can be completed with that information using the above calculation procedure.
Fuel Use Factors (FUF)
Natural Gas
(ft 3/degree-day)
26.6
23.9
19.7
17.0
13.0
11.7
The annual fuel requirements for each type of fuel for each build-
ing size category can now be computed for the region under study using the
formula:
Number of Coal
Dwelling Units
per Building (Ibs/degree-day) (j
1
2 - 4
5 - 9
10 - 19
20 - 49
50 +
Annual Residential
2.38
2.14
1.85
1.62
1.36
1.21
Fuel Use by Building
Oil
*als/degree-day)
.157
.142
.123
.107
.090
.080
Size: Table 3.
AFRi- =
x DD
where:
APR. . = Annual requirement of fuel i used to heat
•* dwelling units in building size category j .
DD = Annual degree days for region (see 1. above)
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Each fuel use factor (FUF.^-) developed in Table 3.1-5 is multi-
plied by the annual degree-Mays (DD) for the region and the
result (APR--) is entered in the appropriate cell of Table 3.1-6.
NOTE: Table 3.1-6 like Table 3.1-5 will be filled out only
once for the county being analyzed.
36
-------
Residential Fuel Use Allocated to Subcounty Areas: Table 3.1-7
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2 Enter the total amount of each kind of fuel used to heat all
dwelling units in the county in row D, (ACTUAL COUNTY TOTAL)
columns (2) through (7).
NOTE: Where it is impossible to obtain coal and/or oil use
broken down by type, enter total amounts (regardless
of type) in the most likely columns (e.g., columns
(2)-(4) for coal; (5) or (6) for oil).
3. List all subcounty areas in column (1) using the same designations
and following the same sequence employed in previous tables.
4. Handling each subcounty area separately, residential fuel com-
bustion by fuel type is computed for all subareas and the
Residual, using data assembled in Tables 3.1-2 through 3.1-6.
a. Beginning with the first building size category in Table
3.1-3 (column (2)) , multiply the number of units in each
building size category (Number entry in columns (2) through
(7) of Table 3.1-3) by the Proportion of dwelling units
heated with the first type of fuel recorded in Table 3.1-4
(e.g., anthracite coal).
b. Multiply the result obtained in step 4a by the appropriate
annual fuel requirement in Table 3.1-6 (e.g., anthracite
coal). Store this result on a separate sheet of paper or in
a storage register of an electronic calculator.
c. Repeat steps 4a and 4b for all building size categories.
Enter the total for all categories into the appropriate
column of Table 3.1-7.
d. Repeat steps 4a-4c for all fuel types and subareas until all
the cells of Table 3.1-7 are filled in. Note that it is not
necessary to carry along the dwelling units using electricity
or other fuels.
5. For each type of fuel, sum the amounts used over all subareas
and the Residual. Enter each total in the appropriate column
of row E (COMPUTED COUNTY TOTAL).
6. Each of the fuel specific COMPUTED COUNTY TOTAL calculated from
each, step 5, should approximate the fuel specific values entered
in row D (ACTUAL COUNTY TOTAL). If the values for any type of
fuel in rows D and E differ significantly, then the fuel use
requirement on Table 3.1-6 needs to be adjusted. This can be
effectively achieved without repeating the calculations by
scaling all of the subarea fuel use computations in Table 3.1-7
by the ratio of the row D to row E values.
37
-------
Residential Fuel Combustion Emission Factors: Table 3.1-8
1. Fill in as described in Order 1 procedures.
Allocated Residential Fuel Combustion Emissions: Table 3.1-9
1. Fill in as described in Order 1 procedures.
38
-------
3.2 TRANSPORTATION
3.2.1 Introduction
Transportation systems represent another widely present source of
air pollutant emissions. Though tied very closely to residential population
distribution, there are some characteristics of the transportation network
that cannot be described by a population-based distribution function. Also,
in many areas the transportation planning group is not the same as the
regional planning commission. In ideal situations the two would be in
close communication and would use mutually compatible data bases, but this
is not always the case. Some of the differences in information presentation
formats have already been described in Section 2.
The transportation emission sources dealt with in this section are
motor vehicles, airports, railroad engines, sea and river vessels, and mis-
cellaneous sources (e.g., farm tractors, construction equipment, etc.) For
motor vehicles, procedures for three Orders of detail will be outlined. For
all other sources, which in total represent only a small fraction of the
transportation-generated emissions, only one Order will be proposed and this
is described under the general Order 3 procedures.
3.2.2 Data Requirements
Each of the 3 Orders of analysis require successively more detailed
information. The following is a list of data requirements and potential
sources for the data for each Order.
All Orders:
a. Motor vehicle emission factors incorporating the effects of
county vehicle age distribution and vehicle use. (Source:
analysis carried out per Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7
of the Guidelines. If county specific data are not available,
then national average data from AP-42 should be used.)
b. Location and traffic volume counts for all limited access high-
ways (interstates, major state and county highways, etc.) both
existing and projected. (Sources: state highway department or
U.S. Department of Transportation published data.)
39
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c. Countywide totals (actual for base years, projected for
forecast years) of vehicle-miles-traveled (VMT) for three
classes of vehicle: light duty gasoline-powered vehicles
(LDG), heavy duty gasoline-powered vehicles (HDG), and
heavy duty diesel-powered vehicles (HDD). (Source: Analysis
carried out per Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 of the
Guidelines.) Although there are five vehicle classes treated
in this document the output can be easily modified to three
vehicle classes for these subcounty allocation procedures.)
Order 1:
a. Actual and projected population for each specified area.
(Sources: U.S. Census of Population; state, regional and
local planning agencies.
b. Countywide motor vehicle VMT for base and forecast years
for three vehicle classes: LDG, HDG, HDD. (Source:
Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 of the Guidelines.)
Order 2:
a. Motor vehicle VMT for three vehicle classes for each specified
subcounty area for base and forecast years. (Source: local
transportation planning group, state or local highway depart-
ment, or regional planning commission.) Note that it is not
necessary for these subcounty areas to correspond to the
population-based subcounty areas.
b. Motor vehicle average speeds for each specified subcounty
area. (Source: same as for (a) above.)
Order 5:
a. Motor vehicle VMT for three vehicle classes and average motor
vehicle speeds for base and forecast years on a highly resolved
subcounty area network. Computer facilities will be required
to handle these data. (Source: same as for a and b of Order
2.)
b. Location and activity data for all major airports, railroad
terminals, port facilities, and concentrations of miscellaneous
sources both existing and projected. (Source: regional
planning agencies, maps, regional transportation groups.)
3.2.3 Procedural Overview
Figure 3.2-1 diagrams the sequence of table use for allocating trans-
portation emissions. All three orders of analysis involving motor vehicles
rely on the initial separation of limited access highways. These roads are
unique in their location and traffic characteristics and therefore cannot be
40
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Sequence of Tables
Allocation
Procedure
All
Orders
3.2-1
3.2-2
^—
3.2-3
Order 1
Order 2
Order 3
Figure 3.2-1 Transportation Allocation Table Sequence
-------
distributed to subcounty areas by any of the traditional demographic variables.
This is true for both existing and projected highways. Once these roads are
identified and separated out, the remaining motor-vehicle activity can be
allocated by one of the three analysis Orders.
Order 1 procedures rely on the distribution of the remaining vehicle-
miles using the population distribution functions developed in Section 3.1.
Order 2 procedures depend on the use of a transportation planning grid developed
by a local agency on which VMT are projected. This grid may or may not corres-
pond to the population grids used previously. Order 3 is essentially the same
as Order 2, with the exception that it is assumed that an extensive trans-
portation simulation model is available and computer capability exists to make
use of the output from the model.
For non-motor vehicle emission sources the single allocation procedure
relies on the identification of the location of the specific sources. These
sources are not, in general, widespread throughout the county and can be
isolated in specific subcounty areas.
Choice of allocation Order is governed primarily by the availability
af data but may be modified by the need for more or less refinement. If
countywide VMT were estimated on the basis of automotive fuel sales (Level 1
analysis, Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7), then it is assumed that
more detailed data are not available or cannot be assessed with available
resources. Hence, Order 1 subcounty allocation procedures are the only ones
relevant. If countywide VMT were obtained from a transportation planning
group (Level 2 analysis, Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7) and no sub-
zounty breakdown was available, then Order 1 procedures are still the only
Dnes meaningful. If the countywide VMT were determined by aggregating sub-
county estimates (Level 2 and/or 3, Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7),
then the data are already available for Order 2 or 3 allocation procedures.
42
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Table 3.2-1
Motor Vehicle Emission Factors
A. County
B. Year '
C. Allocation Order 1, 2 and 3
(1)
Vehicle
Class
LOG
HDG
HDD
Emission Factors
(grams/vehicle-mile)
(2)
Part.
^
f4)
CO
(5)
HC
(exhaust)
(6)
HC
(evap . )
(7)
NO
X
43
-------
rt. County
B. Year
C. Allocation Order 1,2, and 3
Table 3.2-2
Limited Access Highway Data
Identification
Number
(1)
Highway
(2)
Begin
* v
Segment
(3)
Did
— x , — v
I). COUNTY TOTAL
Length
(mi)
(4)
Annual Volume
(106 vehicles/iT )
(5)
LOG
f6)
HDG
(7)
HDD
wrr
(10 6 vehicle-miles/yr)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Speed '
nn
If available.
-------
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation Order 1, 2, and 3
Table 3.2-3
Limited Access Highway Emissions
Highway Segment
Sequence
Identifieation
(1)
Pait.
I IDC
(4)
(5)
IDG
(6)
Speed
Correction
Factor
tiff
CO
(10)
HDC
(11)
HDD
(18)
LIX,
(191
nix;
1). rOlINTl TOT.\1
-------
Table 3.2-4
Motor Vehicle Data Allocated to Subcounty Areas
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation Order 1, 2, and 3
Subarea
(1)
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
D, COUNTY TOTAL
VMT
(10 b Vehicle -miles/yr)
(2)
LDG
(3)
HDG
(4)
HDD
Average
Speed
(mph)
(5)
46
-------
Table 3.2-5
Motor Vehicle Emissions Allocated
to Subcounty Areas
I. Mlocation Order 1,2, and
Subarea
fl)
Part
(2)
LOG
O)
HDD
HDD
CO
_HDD_
SIIB,\RL\ I'OTU
-------
Table 3.2-6
Airport Emissions
A. County
B- Year _^ZZII
C. AllocationT5r3er~J~
Naine of
Airport
(1)
. COUNTY TOTAL
Squ
Coord
{2
X
jre
mates
y
Square
Length
(3)
Act ivity
Proportion
(4)
1.0
] missions
(in6 tons/yr)
(5)
Part.
(6)
SO
X
m
CO
(8)
HC
(9)
N0x
48
-------
Table 3.2-7
Railroad Emissions-Track
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation Order
Subareas
Containing
Track
(1)
). COUNTY TOTAL
Activity
Proportion
(2)
1.0
Emissions
flO6 tous/yrl
(3)
Part.
(4)
SOY
J\
(5)
CO
(6)
HC
(7)
NOX
49
-------
Table 3.2-8
Railroad Emissions-Yards
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation OrcTer
Yard
Designation
(1)
). COUNTY TOTAL
Square
Coordinates
(2)
X
y
Square
Length
(3)
Activity
Proportion
(4)
1.0
Emissions
(1C)6 tons/yr)
(5)
Part.
(6)
sox
(7)
CO
(8)
HC
(9)
NOX
50
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Table 3.2-9
Sea Vessel Emissions
A. County
B. Year ~~~
C. Allocation Order
Subarea
CD
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
COUNTY TOTAl
Activity
Proportion
(2)
1.0
Emissions
(106 tons/yr)
(3)
Part.
(4)
SO
X
(5)
CO
(6)
HC
(7)
NO
X
51
-------
Table 3.2-10
Off-highway Vehicle Emissions
A. County
B. Year '_ ~
C. Allocation Order
Subarea
(1)
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
. COUNTY TOTAL
Activity
Proportion
(2)
1.0
Emissions
(106 tons/yr]
(3)
Part.
(4)
SO
X
(5)
CO
(6)
HC
(7)
NO
X
52
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Table 3.2-11
Transportation Emissions
Allocated to Subcounty Areas
A. County^
B. Year
C. Allocation Order 1, 2 and 3
(1)
Sub area
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
D. COUNTY TOTAL
Emissions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
(3)
SO
X
(4)
CO
(5)
HC
(6)
NO
X
53
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3.2.4 Motor Vehicle Emission Factors
Emission factors for motor vehicles are county-specific in that they
rely on the county vehicle age distribution and vehicle use patterns. Details
on how to develop these factors are given in AP-42. One note of caution needs
to be expressed. Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 of the Guidelines
indicates that county vehicle age distributions are usually not available,
*
and it can therefore be assumed that all vehicles after the 1976 model year
will meet 1976 emission standards and that this emission rate can be used
for 1980 and later emission factors. This assumption can lead to serious
under-predictions of vehicle emissions; an error on the order of a factor
of 10-20 in CD emissions, for example, is not unusual. If county vehicle
age data is not available, it is recommended that national average data,
which is readily available in AP-42, may be used instead.
Motor Vehicle Emission Factors: Table 3.2-1
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Using the Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors (AP-42),
fill in the emission factors for each vehicle class for each
pollutant. The user is cautioned to check that the latest
edition or supplement of AP-42 is being used as this docu-
ment is constantly being updated.
3. Repeat steps 1 and 2 for each projection year and for each
county.
3.2.5 Limited Access Highways
The network of limited access highways, both existing and projected,
should be determined from a regional road map obtained from the state highway
department or from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) maps. The Highway Capacity
Manual may help in defining which highway segments are to be included. The
maps to be used should have indicated on them a geographic reference system,
preferably keyed to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinate grid
system since this is available everywhere in the U.S. (UTM coordinate marks
are given on all USGS maps.)
The defined limited access highway network should next be subdivided
into approximately straight line segments or links and vehicle-miles-traveled
54
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or vehicle count data assembled for each segment. These data are available
from the state highway department, regional 3-C planning agencies, or from
the Federal Highway Administration. VMT-link-type data for most 3-C planning
areas are available with 1968 base years projected to 1990 or 2000.
Limited Access Highway Data: Table 3.2-2
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Enter the segment identification number and x, y coordinates
for each of the straight line segments determined above in
columns (1), (2) and (3).
3. Compute and enter the length of each segment in column (4).
4. Enter the annual volume by vehicle type in columns (5), (6)
and (7). If actual vehicle type distributions are unknown,
use the countywide distribution determined in the analysis
per Projecting County Emissions; Volume 7 of the Guidelines.
5. Multiply the volumes in columns (5), (6), and (7) by the seg-
ment length in column (4) and enter the resulting products
into columns (8), (9)» snd (10), respectively.
6. Sum columns (4)-(10) and enter into the respective columns of
the COUNTY TOTAL row (row D), at the bottom of the table.
Limited Access Highway Emissions: Table 3.2-3
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. In column (1) enter the segment sequence identification number
from column (1) of Table 3.2-2.
3. For each segment determine the speed correction factors for
CO, exhaust HC, and NO using the speed in column (11) of
Table 3.2-2 and the correction curves from AP-42. Enter
these into columns (8) , (12), and (17), respectively.
4. Starting with the first segment, multiply the YMT for each
vehicle type by the emission factor for each pollutant. For
particulates and S0x, enter these results into columns (2)-(4)
and (5)-(7), respectively. For CO, exhaust HC and NO , multiply
the result of the VMT-emission-factor multiplication 8y the
appropriate speed correction factors, found in column (8), (12),
or (17). Enter these results in columns (9)-(11), (13)-(15),
(18)-(20), respectively.
55
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5. Note that the evaporative hydrocarbons emission rates are
applicable only to gasoline-powered vehicles. There are
factors for each type; multiply the emission factors from
Table 3.2-1 and the VMT for light and heavy duty vehicles.
Add these products together and enter the sum in column
(16).
6. Repeat steps 4 and 5 for each road segment.
7. Sum columns (3)-(7), (9)-(11), (13)-(16) and (18)-(20). Enter
the results in the COUNTY TOTAL row (row D) at the bottom of
the table.
3.2.6 Order 1 Allocations
This allocation Order is used when it is determined that there are
no subcounty data available for motor vehicle VMT or when the data are such
that resources do not permit their use. The procedure is to allocate the
county-VMT computed by the analysis described in Projecting County Emissions:
Volume 7 of the Guidelines, using the population distribution proportion
determined from the residential fuel combustion analysis described in Section
3.1. Since limited access highways have been separated out, this procedure
will be fairly accurate for relatively densely populated areas where local
traffic outweighs through traffic but should not be used elsewhere. Further-
more, problems will also arise if the subcounty areas are too small (e.g.,
census tracts) or where the bulk of the traffic in one or more subcounty
areas is related to employment density rather than residential density.
In the case of Order 1 computations, the countywide VMT and the
limited access highway VMT are derived from completely different sources.
The limited access road data are likely to be more accurate since they are
based on traffic counts. If a serious discrepancy exists between these two
sources, Order 1 computations cannot be done. Additional data must be col-
lected at the county level for the rest of the road network. For example,
a primarily rural county with several busy Interstate routes crossing it
could get a figure for limited access road VMT that is higher than the
countywide VMT estimate based on county fuel sales. Such a discrepancy
clearly calls for more data on non-Interstate roads in the county.
Motor Vehicle Data Allocated to Subcounty Areas: Table 3.2-4
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
56
-------
2. In column (1) enter the subcounty area designations following
the same order used in Table 3.1-1.
3. In row D the COUNTY TOTAL VMT, for each vehicle type, enter
the difference between the countywide VMT computed by the
analysis in Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 and the
countywide limited access highway VMT from row D of Table 3.2-2.
4. For each subcounty area and the Residual (described in Section
3.1), multiply the COUNTY TOTAL VMT by the population proportion
from column (3). Table 3.1-1, and enter into columns (2), (3)
and (4).
5. If any speed data are available for the subcounty areas,
enter it in column (5); if no speed data are available, consult
the state highway department to recommend average speed esti-
mates .
6. Be sure that the computations are being made using all data
from the same year.
Motor Vehicle Emissions Allocated to Subcounty Areas: Table 3.2-5
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C) .
2. In column (1) enter the subcounty area designations following
the same order as in Table 3.2-4.
3. If subarea speed data are available, determine the speed cor-
rection factors for CO, exhaust HC, and N0x using the speed in
column (5) of Table 3.2-4 and the speed correction curves of
AP-42. Enter these into columns (8), (12), and (17), respectively.
If no speed data are available, enter an estimate in all
appropriate columns.
4. Starting with the first subarea, for each vehicle type multiply
the VMT from Table 3.2-4 by its emission factor from Table
3.2-1 and record the results on a separate sheet of paper.
5. For LDG and HDG vehicles multiply the results for CO, exhaust
HC, and NO by the appropriate speed correction factor from
columns (8?, (12), and (17). Note that there are no speed
corrections for diesel vehicles (HDD) or for evaporation HC,
SO , or particulates.
6. Enter the results for all vehicle types by pollutant into
columns (2)-(7), (9)-(11), (13)-(16), and (18)-(20).
7. Repeat steps 4-6 for each subarea.
8. Sum the columns listed in step 6 and enter into the COUNTY
TOTAL row (row D) at the bottom of the table.
57
-------
9. Note that the sum of the COUNTY TOTAL Limited Access Highway
Emissions from Table 3.2-3 and the COUNTY" TOTAL Motor Vehicle
Emissions from this table may not necessarily add up to the
countywide emissions computed from the analysis described in
Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7. This is due to the
more detailed analysis required here for limited access highways.
Allocated Transportation Emissions: Table 3.2-11
NOTE: Instructions for Table 3.2-11 are detailed under Order 3
procedures, after all transportation sources have been
considered.
3.2.7 Order 2 Allocations
This Order relies on a more detailed description of the distribution
of VMT throughout the country. In general, if this information is available,
the countywide totals are drawn from the same source and are the aggregation
of all the subarea values. Transportation data presented in this format
(i.e. , on a grid system) will generally have expressway and arterial VMT
separated. The expressway VMT have already been treated in the analysis of
limited access highways.
It is assumed that the number of subcounty areas is small enough to
be handled by hand calculations.
Motor Vehicle Data Allocated to Subcounty Areas: Table 3.2-4
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. In column (1) enter the subcounty area designations as given by
the transportation planning study in use.
3. For each subarea enter the non-limited-access-highway VMT for
each vehicle class in columns (2), (3), and (4).
4. Enter the average vehicle speed in the subarea in column (5).
5. Total columns (2), (3), and (4) and enter into row D, COUNTY
TOTAL VMT.
58
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Allocated Transportation Emissions: Table 3.2-11
NOTE: Instructions for Table 3.2-11 are detailed under Order 3
procedures, after all transportation sources have been
considered.
3.2.8 Order 3 Allocations
For motor vehicles this Order is the same as Order 2, with the
exception that an extensive transportation simulation model is assumed to
be available. Computer capability is also assumed available to handle a
large number of subcounty areas.
Allocation procedures for all other transportation sources are
described here.
Motor Vehicle Data Allocated to Subcounty Areas: Table 3.2-4
1. Complete this table as described under the Order 2 allocation
procedures. Computer printouts may be used in place of this
table.
Motor Vehicle Emissions Allocated to Subcounty Areas: Table 3.2-5
1. Complete this table as described under the Order 2 allocation
procedures. Computer printouts may be used in place of this
table.
Airport Emissions: Table 3.2-6
The procedure for allocating airport emissions to subcounty areas is
rather straightforward. No subarea grid system is needed for the county.
However, there must be a unique way to identify the location of airports
within the county and the supporting documentation required to complete the
tables in Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 must be available.
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A and B).
2. List the name and location of every airport in the county
that was considered in the countywide analysis, in column (1).
The location can be denoted by the UTM coordinates indicating
the southwest comer of a square containing the airport and
the length of a side of that square (enter in columns (2) and
(3)).
59
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3. Using the data collected at the county level from the analysis
of Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7, enter the emissions
for each airport directly, into columns (5)-(9). Note that
the emission estimates should include all airport sources such
as aircraft, ground service vehicles, access traffic, engine
test facilities, space heating.
4. If only total county emissions are available from the analysis
of Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7, enter these in row D,
columns (5)-(9).Determine an aircraft activity proportion of
the county total for each airport and enter into column (4).
Multiply these proportions by the COUNTY TOTv\L and enter the
results in the appropriate cell of columns (5)-(9).
In most cases there is no need to treat the airport on other than
a total basis. However, certain circumstances may require a finer descrip-
tion of the spatial emission pattern on the airport (e.g., where airport
activity is a significant air quality problem). In these cases each airport
can be divided into several activity zones (terminal, runways, parking lots,
etc.) and the emissions from each activity appropriately assigned.
Railroad Emissions-Track: Table 3.2-7
This table provides for the allocation of rail line emissions,
excluding railyards. Railyard emissions will be allocated with the next
table. A county with no railyards need only fill out this table. Rail lines
are being treated in a similar manner as limited access highways.
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. For each subcounty area containing track mileage, list the
subarea designation in column (1). Use the same designations
employed in the motor vehicle emissions allocation (Tables 3.2-4
and 3.2-5).
3. Estimate the proportion of county track mileage in each subarea.
Enter this value in column (2).
4. Enter the county totals of railroad emissions from right-of-way
(track) operations in row D, COUNTY TOTAL, from the analysis
of Projecting County Emissions.
5. For each subarea, multiply the proportion from column (2) by
the COUNTY TOTAL for each pollutant. Enter these figures in
columns (3) through (7) .
60
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Railroad Emissions-Yards: Table 3.2-8
This table provides for the allocation of railyard emissions. The
county total can be obtained from the analysis using Projecting County
Emissions: Volume 7 of the Guidelines. Draw a square around each railyard
and determine the coordinate of the southwest corner and the length of one
side. Similar to airports, countywide railyard emissions calculated per
Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 are apportioned according to the
relative size of each railyard plot.
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A and B).
2. List all yards in columns (1), (2), and (3), by name,
coordinate and length of side, respectively.
3. Estimate the proportion of county railroad yard track
mileage for each yard and list in column (4).
4. Enter the county total of emissions from railyards in
the COUNTY TOTAL row (row D) from the analysis of
Projecting County Emissions; Volume 7.
5. Multiply the proportion by the COUNTY TOTAL for each
pollutant, for each railyard. Enter the results in
columns (5) through (9).
Sea Vessel Emissions: Table 3.2-9
Sea vessels include both private recreational and commercial/indus-
trial vessels. Given the county emissions totals for each of these categories
from the analysis per Volume 7 of the Guidelines the allocation is straight-
forward.
The bases for allocation are as follows:
a. inland water surface used for recreational boating
b. tonnage for commercial boating
c. miles of shoreline along rivers, lakes, ocean
d. boat registrations (recreational boating)
The first three are preferred; boats are often not used in the place of regis-
tration. The entries for this table are filled in as follows:
61
-------
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A and B).
2. Enter the name or coordinates (if grid cells are used) of the
subareas in column (1).
3. Enter the county emission totals in the COUNTY TOTAL row
(row D) .
4. Compute the proportion of activity for each subarea and enter
it in column (2). If more than one type of vessel contributes
significantly to the subarea's emissions, compute a separate
proportion for each type. Hence, there may be more than one
entry per subarea. Remember to scale the fractions so that all
proportions sum to 1.0. That is, if there is significant recrea-
tional and commercial vessel activity in the ratio of .25/.7S,
then the proportion of total recreational activity should be
multiplied by .25 to make it represent the true proportion of
total vessel activity.
5. Multiply the proportion from column (2) by the COUNTY TOTAL
for each pollutant. Enter this in the appropriate column
(columns (3) through (7)).
Off-highway Vehicle Emissions: Table 3.2-10
This category includes lawn mowers, garden tractors, farm vehicles,
construction vehicles and similar mobile sources of air pollutant emissions.
The allocation technique is primarily a population based allocation of
emissions computed as described in Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7.
If lawn vehicles and construction vehicles are a significant component (over
101) of this category, a separate allocation should be done (see step 4 below),
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A and B) .
2. List the subcounty areas in column (1), in the same order as
for Table 3.1-1 of this report.
3. Enter the countywide emissions for this source category deter-
mined by the analysis from Volume 7 of the Guidelines TOTAL.
4. Multiply the population allocation proportion (Table 3.1-1),
column (3) by the COUNTY TOTAL and enter the results in columns
(3)-(7).
5. If farm and construction vehicles are significant, determine for
each subarea the proportion of tractors or construction employees.
Enter the proportion in column (2). Use a separate line for each
such proportion for each subarea. Multiply the proportion by the
COUNTY TOTAL and add this to the previously computed emissions
(step 4) from home-use mobile sources. Enter this total for each
pollutant into columns (3)-(7).
62
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Allocated Transportation Emissions: Table 3.2-11
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. List all subareas in column (1) using the same designations
and following the same sequence employed in Table 3.2-5.
3. Handling each subarea sequentially, compute total transportation
emissions for each pollutant using the following steps :
a. Obtain non-limited-access VMT emissions for the first
pollutant (e.g., particulates) from Table 3.2-4.
b. For the limited-access-highway line segments defined in
Table 3.2-3, determine the portion of each line segment
(and therefore its pollutant-specific emissions) lying
in each subarea. Since these segment-specific particulate
emissions for the subarea in question and add them to the
particulate emissions determined in step 3a.
c. For all other transportation sources (Tables 3.2-6 through
3.2-10), determine the portion of each area and/or line
segment (and therefore its pollutant-specific emissions)
lying in each subarea. Since these area and/or line-segment
particulate emissions for the subarea in question and add
them to the particulate emissions determined from steps
3a and 3b.
d. After summing the particulate emissions over all types of
transportation sources considered, enter the total emissions
for the subarea in Table 3.2-11.
e. Continuing with the same subarea, sum the emission levels for
sulfur oxides, carbon monoxide, etc., repeating steps 3a
through 3d until all pollutants are completed.
f. Go to the next subcounty area and repeat steps 3a through 3e.
Continue until total transportation emissions have been
summed for all subareas, the TOTAL for all subareas, the
Residual, and the COUNTY TOTAL.
63
-------
-------
3.3 COMMERCIAL/INSTITUTIONAL FUEL COMBUSTION EMISSIONS
3.3.1 Introduction
The allocation of emissions from fuel combustion in commercial/insti-
tutional buildings must be treated with some caution. It can, in general,
be said that commercial and institutional development follows the distribution
of population. There are, however, specialized situations where such a broad
assumption can lead to erroneous results. A large urban central business
district and a regional shopping center are two examples of commercial develop-
ment locating in an area of low population density.
To minimize the impact of such distortions the treatment of commercial/
institutional sources requires the separation of large, point sources prior to
the allocation of the fuel use to subcounty areas. This procedure presents
no unusual problems since large sources should already be identified on the
point source inventory. The allocation of the remaining emissions is analogous
to the allocation of residential fuel combustion.
3.3.2 Data Requirements
Data required for each of the three allocation Orders are as follows:
All Orders:
a. Location and fuel use of large commercial/institutions
sources from point source file.
Order 1:
a. Actual and projected population for each specified subcounty
area. (Sources: U.S. Census of Population state, regional
and local planning agencies.)
b. County totals (actual and projected) of fuel used for
commercial and institutional space heating. (Source:
Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7 of the Guidelines.)
Order 2:
a. Actual and projected commercial/institutional employed
persons for each specified subarea within the country.
(Sources: U.S. Census of Population, state, regional and
local planning agencies.)
b. County totals (actual and projected) of fuel used for com-
mercial and institutional space heating. (Source: same as
for Order 1.)
65
-------
Order 5:
a. Actual and projected number of commercial and institutional
establishments for each specified subcounty area. (Sources:
state and local planning agencies and/or Bureaus of Labor.)
b. Actual and projected commercial/institutional building size
distribution (classified by square foot floor area of establish-
ments) for each specified subcounty area. (Sources: state and
local planning agencies.)
c. Actual and projected commercial/institutional fuel use dis-
tribution for each specified subcounty area. (Sources:
state and local planning agencies, utilities.)
d. Total degree-days for the region under study. (Source:
Climatic Atlas of the United States.
3.3.3 Procedural Overview
Figure 3.3-1 diagrams the sequence in which the various tables will
be used in allocating commercial/institutional emissions to subcounty areas
for each order of computation. In all three allocation Orders the large
commercial and institutional sources are first separated out using the point
source file. The fuel used in these sources is subtracted from the county
total. In an Order 1 allocation procedure the remaining fuel use is allocated
according to the population distribution. In Order 2 an employment distri-
bution is used as the allocation parameter. In Order 3 the number of commercial/
institutional buildings in each subcounty area is determined along with build-
ing size and fuel use distributions. Fuel consumption factors are applied and
fuel use is computed. The county fuel totals are then used as mass balance
checks.
It is important to note that for allocation Orders 2 and 3, it is
not necessary to use the same set of subcounty areas as the population dis-
tribution. If commercial/institutional data are available on a different
grid network then they may be used as provided. All subcounty areas are
made comparable using a coordination of all the master gridding techniques
described in Section 4.
The three Orders for allocating these emissions closely parallel
procedures used in allocating residential space heating emissions to subcounty
areas. Therefore, in the interest of economy the tables used to allocate
commercial/institutional emissions are discussed only briefly below for each
66
-------
Allocation
Procedure
All Orders
Sequence of Tables
3.
3-2
Order 1
3.1-1
3.3-9
3.3-10
3.3-11
Order 2
3.3-3
T 7 Q
3.3-10
3.3-11
Order 3
3.3-4
3. 3-5
3 3-6
3.3-7
3.3-8
3.3-9
3.3-10
3.3-11
Figure 3.3-1 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion Allocation Table Sequence
-------
Order. The user is referred back to appropriate portions of Section 3.1 where
the mechanics for using analogous tables are detailed step-by-step.
3.3.4 Commercial/Institutional Point Sources
The fuel use and emissions from these sources are determined from the
point source file. If information is available on the location of new point
sources then this can be incorporated into the tables for projection years.
It is entirely possible that the point source file will contain no
commercial/institutional sources. In this case it can be assumed that all
sources are small and their emissions can be allocated by one of the three
Orders.
Commercial/Institutional Point Source Fuel Use: Table 3.3-1
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through B).
2. Enter the source name in column (1).
3. Enter the source coordinate in column (2). (UTM grid coordinates
are recommended.)
4. From the point source file enter in the appropriate column the
annual fuel used by each source.
5. Sum columns (3)-(8) for all point sources and enter into the
COUNTY TOTAL row.
Commercial/Institutional Point Source Emissions: Table 3.3-2
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A and B).
2. Enter the source name in column (1) following the same sequence
used in Table 3.3-1.
3. From the point source file enter the emissions for each source.
4. Sum columns (2)-(6) and enter into the COUNTY TOTAL row.
68
-------
Table 3.3-1
Conmercial/Institutional Point Source Fuel Use
69
-------
Table 3.3-2
Commercial/Institutional Point Source Emissions
County
Year —
Allocation Order 1, Z and 5
(1)
Source
Emissions
(tons/yr)
Part.
(3)
SO
(4)
CO
(5)
HC
(6)
NO
SUBAREA TOTAL
70
-------
Table 3.3-3
Commercial/Institutional Employment-Based
Allocation Proportions for Subcounty Areas
A. County
B. Year _
C. Allocation Order
(1)
(2)
(3)
Subarea
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
COUNTY TOTAL
Commercial/
Institutional
Employment
Allocation Proportion
1.0
D.
71
-------
Table 3.3-4
Number of Commercial/Institutional Establishments
in Subcounty Areas
A. Comity
L>. Year
C. Allocation Order
D.
«
.Sub area
SUBAREX TOTAL
Residual l
COUNTY TOT-V
(2)
Number of
Commercial/
Institutional
Establishments
72
-------
Table 3.3-5
Commercial/Institutional
Building Size Distribution
73
-------
Table 3.3-6
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use Distribution
-------
Table 3.3-7
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use Factors by Building Size
A. County __
B. Year ' __^_^_
C. Allocation Order
(1)
Ft2
Floor Area
per 1
Establishment
Fuel Use Factors
Coal
(Ibs/degree -day)
(2)
•M
•H
u
oj
(-.
JZ
+->
§.
(3)
i/i
o
•H
•P
•H
pq
(4)
0)
j-i
•H
&
•H
_J
Oil
(gals/degree -day;
(5)
4)
+J
rt
i — I
rH
•H
•I-J
I/)
•H
Q
(6)
i— t
3
13
•H
[/)
&
Natural Gas
(ft ^/ degree -day)
(7)
User must specify building size categories in accordance with those specified
in TabTe~3.1-3.
75
-------
Table 3.3-8
Annual Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use By Building Size
A. County _^
B. Year _
C. Allocation Order3~
(1)
Ft2
Floor Area
per
Establishment
ruiiiucij- ruex use
Coal
(tons/yr)
Anthracite 72
Bituminous ^
(4)
• H
• H
H-3
Oil
(HP gal/yr)
(5)
0)
rt
i— I
r— 1
•H
4->
•H
Q
(6)
rH
1
•H
Natural Gas
(106 ft3/yr)
(7)
User must specify building size categories in accordance with those
specified in Table 3.3-5.
76
-------
Table 3.3-9
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use Allocated
to Subcounty Areas
A. County
B. Year
(.. Allocation Order 1, 2, and 3
,n
SUBATOA TOT.VL
Residual
D. ACTUAL COUNTY I'OIAL
h. COMPUTED COUNTY FOIAL1
\nnual 1 uel Use
Coal
(tons/vr J
Anthracite ^
Bituminous ^
(4)
'c
CP
_ Oil
Distillate 5
«')
o
3
-o
v>
aj
OC
Natural Gas
(Iflfi ft3/)) )
(7)
Tlus rou will be used only in cases where an Order 3 allocation procedure is being
followed.
77
-------
Table 3.3-10
Commercial/institutional Fuel Combustion Ijnission Factors
A. County
B. Year '
C. Allocation orders 1, 2 and 3
' — i
CT3
O
U
i — 1
•H
(U
Anthracite
Bituminous
Lignite
Distillate
Residual
Natural Gas
U)
Part.
Emission Factors
(3)
S0x
(4)
CO
(SJ
HC
«>)
NOX
78
-------
Table 3.3-11
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion Emissions
Allocated to Sub-County Areas
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation Order 1, 2 and~3
(1)
Subarea
SUBAR1-A TOTAL
Residual
1). COUNTY '10TAL
missions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
(3)
S0x
(4)
CO
(5)
IIC
(0)
NOX
79
-------
3.3.5 Order 1 Allocations
Order 1 provides the least extensive method for allocating commercial/
institutional emissions to subcounty areas. The total amount of commercial/
institutional space heating fuels used throughout the county are allocated
among subcounty areas according to the population distribution. This pro-
cedure is not significantly inaccurate if the subcounty areas are not too
small. For small subareas (e.g., census tracts) this is likely to produce
erratic results because of specialized commercial developments. Considera-
tion should be given to aggregating small areas when this procedure is to be
used.
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use: Table 3.3-9
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. In column (1) enter the subcounty area designations following
the same sequence as employed in Table 3.1-1.
3. In columns (2)-(7) of row D, COUNTY TOTALS, enter the difference
between the countywide commercial/institutional fuel use com-
puted using the analysis from Projecting County Emissions:
Volume 7 and the point source countywide fuel use totals of
Table 3.3-1.
4. Allocate the fuel use to the subcounty areas and the Residual
using the population allocation proportions of Table 31-1
(Refer to Table 3.1-7 for detailed instructions.)
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion Emission Factors: Table 3.3-10
1. Enter the appropriate commercial/institutional emission factors
from Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors (AP-42).
Again, the user is cautioned to check that the latest edition
or supplement to AP-42 is employed as this document is con-
stantly being updated.
3.3.6 Order 2 Allocations
Order 2 provides the intermediate method for allocating commercial/
institutional emissions to subcounty areas. Non-point source commercial/
institutional fuel use is distributed among subcounty areas according to
commercial/institutional employment distribution rather than the population
distribution. If it is convenient to use a subcounty area grid that is dif-
ferent from the population grid, this may be done with no procedural diffi-
culties .
80
-------
Commercial/Institutional Employment-based Allocation Proportions: Table 3.3-3
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C) .
2. In column (1) enter the selected subcounty area designations.
3. In column (2) enter the commercial/institutional employment in
each subarea and in the Residual.
4. Compute the employment allocation proportion and enter into
column (3) by dividing the subarea employment by the COUNTY
TOTAL in row D. (Refer to Table 3.1-1 for analogous detailed
instructions).
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use: Table 3.3-9
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. In column (1) enter the subcounty area designations following
the same sequence as employed in Table 3.3-3.
3. In columns (2)-(7) of row D, COUNTY TOTAL, enter the difference
between the countywide commercial/institutional fuel use com-
puted using the analysis from Projecting County Emissions:
Volume 7 countywide fuel use of Table 3.3-1.
4. Allocate the fuel use to the subcounty areas using the commer-
cial/institutional employment allocation proportions of Table
3.3-3. (See analogous operation in description of Table 3.1-7).
Commercial/Institutional Emission Factors: Table 3.3-10
1. Enter the appropriate commercial/institutional emission factors
from Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, AP-42.
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion Emissions: Table 3.3-11
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table.
2. Multiply the fuel use of Table 3.3-9 by the emission factors
of Table 3.3-10 and enter in the appropriate columns.
(Refer to Table 3.1-9 for detailed instructions.)
3.3.7 Order 3 Allocations
Order 3 constitutes the most extensive method for allocating commer-
cial/institutional emissions to subcounty areas. Three pieces of information
are required for each subcounty area: (1) the number of commercial/institu-
81
-------
tional establishments, (2) the building size distribution, and (3) the fuel
use distribution. This procedure is analogous to the Order 3 residential
fuel combustion emission allocation in that the commercial/institutional fuel
use is computed for each subcounty area and then checked against the county-
wide totals.
Number of Commercial/Institutional Establishments: Table 3.3-4
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. List all subcounty areas in column (1).
3. Enter the number of commercial/institutional establishments
(actual for past or present year(s) and projected for future
years) for each subcounty area and the Residual in column (2).
(Refer to Table 3.1-2, Order 3 Residential Fuel Combustion, for
detailed instructions.)
Commercial/Institutional Building Size Distribution: Table 3.3-5
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Specify building size categories (by square feet of commercial/
institutional space) along the top row of the table. The
columns of this row are left blank so that the user can employ
the best building size data at his disposal.
3. List all subcounty areas in column (1) following the same
sequence as employed in Table 3.3-4.
4. In the left column of the various building size categories
record the number of establishments in that category. In the
right column record this number divided by the subarea total.
(Refer to Table 3.1-3 for detailed instructions.)
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use Distribution: Table 3.3-6
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table.
(items A through C).
2. List all subcounty areas in column (1).
3. In the left column for the various kinds of fuel record the
number of establishments using each fuel. In the right
column record this number divided by the subarea total.
(Refer to Table 3.1-4 for detailed instructions.)
82
-------
Annual Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use By Building Size and Fuel Used:
Tables 3.3-7 and 3.3-8
These tables are completed in an analogous fashion to Tables 3.1-5
and 3.1-6 for residential fuel use. These tables are filled in only once
for the entire county.
Lacking any more specific data the following assumptions can be
employed in generating the fuel use factors to be entered in Table 3.3-7:
a. The average heating requirement for commercial/institutional
establishments is given by the following table:
Floor Space
(103ft2)
0 -20
20 -50
50 -100
100+
b. Each type of fuel has the
coal
oil
natural gas
c. Heating plant efficiency
coal
oil
natural gas
Heating Requirement (HR)
(106 Btu/ degree -day)
1.53
1.80
2.24
3.07
following heating values (HV) :
11,000 Btu/lb.
144,000 Btu/gal.
800 Btu/ft3
HPE:
65%
75%
80%
Employing these assumptions the total annual fuel requirements are computed
for each building size category by calculating a fuel use factor.
FUF..=
i j HVi x HPEi
where FUF.. = Fuel use factor for fuel i, building size j
83
-------
HR. = Heating requirement for building size j
H^ = Heating value for fuel i
HPEi= Heating plant efficiency for fuel i
If the above assumptions are used then the following values should be entered
in Table 3.3-7. If more region-specific data are available then Table 3.3-7
can be filled in with that information using the above calculation procedure.
FUEL USE FACTORS (FUF)
Floor Space Coal Oil Natural- Gas
(103ft2) (ibs/degree-day) (gals/degree-day) (ft3/degree-day)
0-20 214 14 2390
20-50 252 17 2813
50-100 313 21 3500
100-200 429 28 4797
The annual fuel requirements for each type of fuel for each building size
category can now be computed by multiplying the values in Table 3.3-7 by
the number of degree-days per year in the region. The results are entered in
Table 3.3-8.
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Use: Table 3.3-9
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. In column (1) enter the subcounty area designations following
the same sequence as employed in Table 3.3-4.
3. For each subarea and the Residual multiply the number of
establishments from Table 3.3-4 by the building size distribu-
tion from Table 3.3-5 and by the fuel use distribution from
Table 3.3-6. Multiply this result by the annual fuel use re-
quirement from Table 3.3-8. Sum over all building size cate-
gories and enter into the appropriate column of Table 3.3-9
(Refer to Table 3.1-7 for detailed instructions.)
4. Check the computed COUNTY TOTAL fuel use against the ACTUAL
COUNTY TOTAL. Adjust as described for Table 3.1-7.
84
-------
Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion Emission Factors: Table 3.3-10
1. Fill in as described in Order 1 allocation procedures.
Allocated Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion Emissions: Table 3.3-11
1. Fill in as described in Order 1 allocation procedures.
85
-------
-------
.3.4 INDUSTRIAL EMISSIONS
This section treats the allocation of industrial emissions. Indus-
trial emissions are divided into two categories -- process and fuel combustion.
While the procedures for each category are similar, enough variation in calcu-
lation exists to warrant separation. Also, an individual point source may be
either predominantly a process source or a fuel combustion source, or both.
The tables for this section have been designed to use the OBERS
economic projections as developed by the U.S. Departments of Commerce and
Agriculture. Flexibility has also been provided in the forms to allow for
the use of other growth forecasts if more consistent and accurate data are
available on the state or local levels. Finally, these tables have also been
designed to fit as closely as possible the countywide projection procedures
as contained in Volume 7 of the Guidelines Projecting County Emissions.
3.4.1 Industrial Process Sources
3.4.1.1 Introduction
This section describes procedures for allocating major industrial
process emissions. Consistent with other portions of this document, three
Orders of analysis have been provided to allow for a diversity of growth
possibilities and a range of available data.
In each order, an estimate of the rate of growth must be derived
from available forecasts (e.g., OBERS) for each industrial process category
to be analyzed. If this rate of growth is small (or declining), the result-
ing emissions can be assumed to be generated by existing sources and an
Order 1 analysis can be used.
If, on the other hand, the rate of growth is significant, an Order
2 or Order 3 analysis should be used. These orders require an estimate of
the percentage of growth that will occur in existing sources and that which
will occur in new sources. For the Order 2 analysis, it may be possible to
generate the estimates using planning agency data. For example, if new
areas of industrial development can be forecast, the fraction of growth in new
sources can be estimated as the ratio of new industrial land development to
emissions from existing industrial land use, assuming that the emission growth
is approximately proportional to industrial land use growth. For the Order 3
87
-------
analysis, expansion plans and possible new source locations are determined
directly from field interviews of major existing point sources.
In both the Order 2 and Order 3 analysis, the Residual growth at
new sources is allocated to subareas on the basis of projected land use or
employment levels in each subarea. While a recent Argonne study, Methods
for Predicting Air Pollution Concentrations from Land Use, failed to yield
systematic relationships between these planning variables and emissions, their
use as allocation factors are recommended until better indications of emissions
are available simply because they are in common use as measures of industrial
activity.
3.4.1.2 Data Requirements
Data required for each of the three allocation orders are as follows:
Order 1
a. Growth rates for each of the major process sources for
each of the horizon years.
Sources:
(1) OBERS projections by process source category or SCC
process categories defined in the USEPA publication
Guide for Compiling a Comprehensive Emissions Inventory
(2) Special planning studies~
(3) Chambers of Commerce
(4) Plant interviews
b. File of existing point sources (location, process category,
and process emissions for each pollutant).
Source:
(1) State air pollution control agencies
(2) USEPA-NEDS file described in the USEPA publication
Guide For Compiling a Comprehensive iBmissions Inventory
Order 2
a. As in Order 1
b. As in Order 1
c. Employment or land use for existing sources.
Source: Plant interviews
d. Employment levels or land use by process source category
and geographic grid subarea.
Sources:
(1) Area planning studies
(2) Manufacturers Directories
(3) Social Security Offices
(4) Unemployment Compensation Offices
88
-------
e. Estimates of fractions of existing and new source
growth.
Source: Area planning studies
Order 3
a. As in Order 1
b. As in Order 1
c. As in Order 2
d. As in Order 2
e. Expansion plans for existing major point sources or
potential new point sources.
Source: Plant interviews
3.4.1.3 Procedural Overview
Figure 3.4-1 diagrams the sequence of table use for allocating indus-
trial process source emissions for each of the three allocation Orders. The
first case, or Order 1 analysis, simply allocates growth to existing (or
identifiable) process point sources; that is, the assumption is made that new
growth will not be significant and that the location and other expansion
characteristics of all new sources to be constructed during the planning hori-
zon can be explicitly determined. In the absence of source specific growth
rates, growth rates aggregated by process category may be used. For example,
the Standard Industrial Classification Codes (SIC) or the OBEES projection
categories may be used. Category growth rates may then be applied uniformly
to all point sources in each category assuming that proportional shares of the
baseline emissions are maintained over the planning horizon. The definition
of process categories is purposely left open to fit local data base definitions
and requirements.
The Order 2 and 3 analyses assume that an estimate of the fraction of
growth attributable to existing sources can be determined in addition to total
process category growth. Order 2 generates these estimates from planning
studies while Order 3 makes use of field interview data. Both orders forecast
the point source growth in process emissions first and then allocate the new
source growth (if any) to subareas as a function of employment or land use by
process category. The aid of the county planning agency should be enlisted to
devise employment or land use forecasts by subarea and process category for
89
-------
A11ocat ion
Procedure
Sequence of Tables
Order 1
3.4-1
3.4-4
Orders 2 and 3
3.4-1
3.4-2
3.4-3
3.4-4
Figure 3.4-1 Industrial Process Allocation Table Sequence
90
-------
the planning horizon. Differences in definitions of industrial process cate-
gories and geographical scale must be reconciled at this time. The level of
detail in process category definition and subarea size should be as "fine"
as available data will allow.
91
-------
Table 3.4-1
Point Source Industrial Process Emissions
A. County
B. Year
C. Al location Order 1,2, and"3
(1)
Industrial
Process
Category
Source I dent i
Name
(3)
Process
fication
W
Subarea
(5)
Coord.
X
Y
Process Emission forecast ftons/yr)
(6)
GF**
(71
Part.
Cont.
—
jnis .
(8)
SO,
Cont.
Lmi s .
f91
CO
Cont .
jnis.
fid)
HC
Cont.
FJIUS.
(!1)
\0«
Cont .
IJnis.
(12)
]jnp.*
— ^
vo
ho
*Enployment
**Growth Factor
-------
A Coun t >
B Year ____^^^___
C' \] location Order 2 arid 3
Table 3.4-2
Industrial Point and New Source Process Emissions by Process Category
(1)
Industrial
Process (..atcgorv
1) UXINn TO I'M
(21
Pd t t .
BaseLine Year
xisting Point Sources
(3)
•""x
(41
CD
1^1
IK
(
-------
Table 3.4-3
Process Emissions by Process Category and Subarea
\ Count)
B. Subarua
I . Year
U. \1 location Order
- and 3
Inuust i Kil
Pixx ess Uite^oi \
(i)
1 . SUBAREA TOTAL
Total
Ump.
(-)
'oint
Sou ice
lirap.
n>
NUVV
Sou no
Ijnp.
O)
1AI'*
(5)
"Jew Source I'mssions ftons/yr)
(h)
1'ai t .
17}
SOx
(8)
CO
n>)
IK:
fin)
NJOx
*Ijnployment Allocation Proportion = Subarea Category New Source IJnployment
Total Categoi-y New Source Ijnp 1 o>Tient
94
-------
Table 3.4-4
Industrial Point and New Source Process Emissions - Subarea Summary
(141
NO,
Total Ijiussions
ris)
Lmp. '
f!8)
CO
-------
3.4.1.4 Order 1 Allocations
The first method of allocation assumes that growth (or decline) in
an industrial category occurs at the same location as existing facilities in
the point source file. The following method assumes that point source data
has been updated to the baseline year.
Industrial Point Source Process Emissions: Table 3.4-1
One set of tables should be filled out for all major point sources
for the baseline year and each of the forecast years. If sources have been
segregated into process categories, it is best to record one category per
sheet and total the results of each category on the top line of the form.
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C) and the process category in column (1)
if applicable.
2. Enter the name, process identification, subarea and coordinates
for all of the significant point sources on the point source
file in columns (2)-(3), respectively. In column (3) the
process identification can be the SIC code, SCC code, or some
other descriptive identification.
3. In column (6) enter the growth factor corresponding to the
individual process identification, if available; otherwise,
apply the process category growth factor uniformly to each
source within a given process category. Fill out the table
for the baseline year first (in which case the growth factors
are 1.0). Fill out tables for forecast years with the corres-
ponding growth factors.
4. Enter the proportional reduction in emissions (e.g., 1.0 minus
the estimated proportional reduction in emissions due to pollution
control regulations) for each pollutant relative to the baseline
year for each process in the left hand side of columns (7)-(11).
Compute forecast year emissions as the product of baseline year
emissions, the growth factor, and the controls reduction factor
and enter this result in the right hand side of columns (7)-(11).
5. Sum and record total point source process emissions for each
process category on the bottom line of each form.
96
-------
Industrial Point and New Source Process Emissions-Subarea Summary:
Table 3.4-4 " ~ ~~
Table 3.4-4 merely provides a summary of emissions (in this case,
point sources only) by subarea. Record the sum of appropriate point source
process emissions by subarea determined from Table 3.4-1 in columns (2)-(8)
and sum over subareas to obtain countywide totals. No new source process
emissions exist for the Order 1 analysis.
3.4.1.5 Order 2 Allocations
An Order 2 allocation assumes that the fraction of growth that will
be accounted for by new sources and the amount attributable to existing sources
can be estimated if the growth in a given process category is significant.
Employment (or land use) for the baseline year should be obtained for the
existing point sources if it is not already known. Forecast employment (or
land use) by process category and subarea should be obtained from area planning
studies or from the responsible planning agency. The subcounty area set on
which this information is displayed may be one of those used previously or
an entirely new set.
Industrial Point Source Process Emissions: Table 3.4-1
1. Fill in following Order 1 procedures and include employment
(or land use) for each point source, in column (12). Sum
over all point sources for each category. For forecast
years, use the estimated growth factors for existing sources.
Industrial Point and New Source Process Emissions By Process Category:
Table 3.4-2 ~~~
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. In column (1) enter the process category identification (SIC,
SOC, etc.) for growth factors which are greater than 1.0.
3. In columns (2)-(6) enter the emissions and in column (7) the
employment from each process category for the baseline year.
This information is obtained by summing the emissions and
employment over all individual sources in each process category
from Table 3.4-1.
4. Enter the total growth factor for each process category in
column (8).
97
-------
5. Compute the forecast year emissions and employment (or land
use) for all sources in each process category by multiplying
the baseline year process emissions and employment (or land
use) by the growth factors. Enter the results in columns (9)-
(14). (Employment or land use projections may also be avail-
able from the area planning studies.
6. Record total process category growth in process emissions and
employment (or land use) at existing sources from Table 3.4-1
in columns (15)-(20) for the appropriate forecast year.
7. Estimate the proportional reduction in emissions in each
process category due to new source control regulations and
record 1.0 minus this proportional reduction in emissions in
the left hand side of columns (21)-(25).
8. Compute the forecast year new source emissions by subtracting
columns (15)-(19) from columns (9)-(13). Multiply these
results by the control factor in the left hand side of
columns (21)-(25) and enter the result into the right hand
side of these columns. (These new source emissions will be
allocated in subcounty areas on the basis of employment or
land use.) If any of the computations result in a negative
emission, enter a zero in the column.
9. Compute the new source employment (or land use) as the difference
between columns (14) and (20) and enter in column (26).
10. Repeat steps 1-9 for each forecast year.
Industrial New Source Process Emissions by Process Category and Subarea:
Table 3.4-3
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through D). Note that a separate table will be
filled out for each subcounty area.
2. In column (1) enter the process category identification (SIC,
SCC, etc.) from column (1) in Table 3.4-2.
3. In column (2) enter the total process category employment (or
land use) in the subarea as determined from area planning
studies. This must be consistent with the data source used
in developing entries (9)-(14) of Table 3.4-2.
4. In column (3) enter the existing point source process category
employment (or land use) by identifying sources located in the
subarea from Table 3.4-1.
5. Compute the new source process category employment (or land use)
as the difference between columns (2) and (3) and enter in
column (4). Record zero if the result is negative.
98
-------
6. Compute the new source process category employment (or land
use) allocation proportion (EAP) as the ratio of the values
in column (4) to the county total new source process category
employment (or land use) column (26) of Table 3.4-2. Enter
these results in column (5).
7. Compute the new source emissions in the subarea by multiplying
the total process category new source emissions from columns
(21)-(25) of Table 3.4-2 by the EAP of column (5). Enter the
results in columns (6)-(10).
Industrial Point and New Source Process Emissions-Subarea Summary:
Table 3.4-4''~''
1. In each subarea, record existing point source process emissions
and new source subarea process emissions, and sum to yield
subarea totals.
2. Sum over subareas to yield county totals and check these with
the totals in Table 3.4-2.
3.4.1.6 Order 5 Allocations
Order 3 allocation procedures follow the same general format as
Order 2 procedures except that point source field interview data is used in
the analysis to estimate the fraction of growth of existing sources. The
remaining growth is allocated to new sources following the Order 2 employment
(or land use) based allocation procedures.
Industrial Point Source Process Emissions: Table 3.4-1
1. Fill in following Order 1 procedures. Note that if the plant
survey gives an indication of new point source locations these
should be included in the appropriate tables.
Industrial Point Source and New Source Process Emissions by Process Category:
Table 3.4-2
1. Fill in according to steps 1-5 of Order 2 procedures.
2. Columns (15)-(20) are filled in using data for the appropriate
year from Table 3.4-1. These columns now represent emissions
resulting from increased output at existing and new point
sources. This information is obtained from the plant survey.
3. Continue with remainder of Order 2 procedures.
99
-------
Industrial New Source Process Emissions by Process Category and Subarea:
Table 3.4-3~~~
1. Fill in according to Order 2 procedures.
Industrial Point and New Source Process Emissions-Subarea Summary:
Table 3.4-4 ~
1. Fill in according to Order 2 procedures.
100
-------
3.4.2 Industrial Fuel Combustion Emissions
3.4.2.1 Introduction
Industrial fuel combustion emissions are divided into point source
and area source components. The methods for allocating fuel use and fuel
combustion emissions are similar to those used for industrial process emis-
sions; i.e., fuel demand and fuel combustion emissions are estimated first
for existing major point industrial fuel combustion sources and the remainder
is allocated to new sources as a fraction of employment or land use by pro-
cess category for subcounty areas.
3.4.2.2 Data Requirements
1. Same as for industrial process emissions, except all power
generation facilities and major municipal incineration facilities
should be interviewed for expansion plans and included in the
point source forecasts.
2. Employment (or land use) for existing industrial point sources
and total subarea industrial employment (or land use) must be
known for Order 1.
3.4.2.3 Procedural Overview
Figure 3.4-2 diagrams the sequence of table use for allocating fuel
combustion emissions for each of the three allocation orders. The procedure
for industrial fuel combustion emissions allocation is essentially the same
as that for industrial process emission. Order 1 assumes that all growth is
at existing (or identifiable) point source locations. The addition of the
baseline countywide area fuel combustion source term requires that employment
(or land use) for existing sources and total industrial subarea employment
(or land use) be known for Order 1 to allocate these emissions to subareas.
Order 2 and Order 3 procedures are similar to those for industrial process
emission except for computational differences.
101
-------
Sequence of Tables
o
tx)
Allocation
Procedure
Order 1:
Orders 2 and 3:
Figure 3.4-2 Industrial Fuel Combustion Allocation Table Sequence
-------
Table 3.4-5
Industrial Point Source Fuel Use
o
O-)
\ Comity
B. Year
( Al Icxat ion Chder
(1)
Industrial
PrOLCSS
Category
Sour c Idcn^if i a! lo
(2~]
^"ajnt1
n)
Piocess
N)
Subarea
(r>l
too id
X
Y
uo ! Demand a.'d !uol Use lore^ast
CO
GF**
1 " )
MBTU
(8,
1 irqi.^
fli)
COAL
(V))
IS
in;
°\
(1-1
1 OIL
(IV,
"S
(1-1)
n on
'«
fifil
\'G
(17)
P CiVS
(18)
LIT,
fl(!)
COKE
(20)
woon
(21)
B-ASSE
(22)
DIES
(23)
GAS
*Lniployment
**t,rowth 1 actor
-------
Table 3.4-5a (Cont. of 3.4-5)
Industrial Point Source Fuel Combustion Emissions
A. County
B. Year ' ~ ~
C. Allocation Order 1, 2, and 3~
(1)
Industrial
Process Category
Source Identification
(2)
Name
(3)
Process
W
Subarea
(5)
Coord.
X
Y
Fuel Combustion Emissions Forecast ftons/yr]
(6)
Part.
Cont.
Emis.
m
SOx
Cont .
Inn s .
(8)
CO
Cont.
Emis.
(91
HC
Cont.
Fjnis.
(10)
N0«
Cont.
Emis.
-------
Table 3.4-6
Industrial Point and New Source Energy Demand by Process Category
Indltoti la!
Process Categor)
Ci]
Power Generation
Industrial \rea
i) Loircn 101 vi
Ba^e lire \L'di
Lxisting Point Sout\cs
12)
'ffiTIi
HI
Lnp *
lorCLast Year - U 1 Sources
f 1 1
(,] **
w///,
C3)
'mm
(61
I mi.*
Forecast Year
Kxistinp, Point Sources
f)
^BTU
WM
(8)
Hmp. *
w///,
Forecast Year
\eu Sources
f9)
'IRTIJ
W//S
fl")
Kmp.*
W//S.
-------
Table 3.4-7
Industrial New Source Fuel Use By Process Category and Subarea
IlKlllstll.ll
I'ltxcss (jUniorv
(1)
1'owc i U'lin ,11 ion
Indus! i i.il \ic,i
1 . SUH.XKI .\ 10] M,
lotal
ljm> *
(2)
I'.iint
Soul ». c
ljnp.«
H)
New
Soim c
1 in;) *
ft)
IAI"*
r.)
lucl lenund .Hid luol Use 1-nrCL.ist
HO
UBIU
(?)
HIM,
(8)
3S
CD
«A
MO)
R Oil
(MJ
'.S
fl ')
1) Oil
(IT)
fl Ij
\'(,
P (AS
fK.J
ri7j
con
n«j
MJOI)
fl'i)
B-ASS1
('.HI
WIS
f2l)
fv\i
-------
Table 3.4-7a (Cont. of 3.4-7)
Industrial New Source Fuel Combustion Emissions by Process Category and Subarea
A. (bii'ity
B Sub;i re a
I . \ear
U. \llixat ion TTFITeT I* 2, and ^
Induslrial \rca
-------
Table 3.4-8
Industrial Point and New Source Fuel Combustion Emissions - Subarea Summary
\ County _
B. Subarc,r
I . Ycai
D. Allocation Ordei 1,2, and 5
CD
IX
bubaicd
(D
Point Souixc Emission
(X)
NO,
New SOU
lotal Ijrussions
(20)
NOi
-------
3.4.2.4 Order 1 Allocations
Industrial Point Source Fuel Use: Table 3.4-5
Column heading definitions for Table 3.4-5 are as follows:
Symbol Definition
MBTU 103 Btu
COAL Coal use (tons)
% S Percent sulfur content by weight
\ A Percent ash content by weight
ROIL Residual Oil (103 gal)
D OIL Distillate Oil (103 gal)
NG Natural Gas (106 cu ft)
P GAS Process Gas (106 cu ft)
LPG Liquid Propane Gas (103 gal)
COKE Coke (tons)
WOOD Wood (tons)
B-ASSE Bagasse (tons)
DIES Diesel (103 gal)
GAS Gasoline (103 gal)
1. Enter descriptive information in columns (l)-(5) as described
for Industrial Point Source Process Emissions, Table 3.4-1.
2. Enter the applicable growth factors in column (6) for the fore-
cast year by SCC process or by process category if the former
are not available (this growth factor is 1.0 for the baseline
year.)
3. Calculate the total fuel demand for the forecast year as the
product of the baseline fuel demand and the growth factor
and enter in column (7).
4. Calculate the growth in employment (or land use) as the product
of the baseline employment and the growth factor and enter the
result in column (8).
5. Distribute fuel use in the forecast year assuming the same fuel
mix as in the baseline year or change in mix stratified by
regional study. Record the sulfur and ash contents taking
account of control regulations in the forecast years. Enter
these data in columns (9)-(23).
6. Sum over all sources in each category and record totals on the
line at the bottom of each category sheet for each forecast year.
109
-------
Industrial Point Source Fuel Combustion Emissions: Table 3.4-5a
(continuation of Table 3.4-5)
1. Estimate the proportional reduction in emissions of each
pollutant due to control regulations relative to baseline
year for each process category and record 1.0 minus this
proportional reduction in emissions in the left-hand side
of columns (6)-(10). Compute forecast year emissions as the
product of fuel consumption (from Table 3.4-5), appropriate
fuel use emission factors obtained from the USEPA publication
Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors (AP-42) and
control reduction factor and record in the right-hand side
of columns (6)-(10).
2. Sum and record total fuel combustion emissions for each
process category.
NOTE: In addition to the major industrial categories, Tables
3.4-5 and 3.4-5a should be filled out for all power
generation facilities, major municipal incineration
facilities, and the countywide industrial area source,
category hereafter labeled Industrial Area. The
industrial area source growth factor can be estimated
as the average growth rate for the industrial sector
as a whole if no other information is available. Base-
line industrial area source employment (or land use)
has been subtracted from the county total industrial
employment (or land use) to get point source growth
estimates.
Industrial New Source Fuel Use by Process Category and Subarea: Table 3.4-7
In the Order 1 analysis, only the growth in Industrial Area category
is allocated to subareas since all of the remaining industrial growth is
assumed to be at existing point source locations.
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through D). Note that a separate table will be
filled out for each subcounty area.
2. In column (1) enter the process category identification
(SIC, SCC, etc.) of processes considered in Table 3.4-5.
3. At the bottom of column (2) enter the total subarea industrial
employment (or land use) as determined from area planning
studies.
4. In column (3) enter the existing point source process category
employment (or land use) by identifying sources located in
the subarea from Table 3.4-5. Sum to obtain total point source
subarea employment and record at bottom of column (3).
110
-------
5. Obtain subarea Industrial Area employment (or land use) by
subtracting total subarea industrial point source employment
(bottom of column (3)) from total subarea industrial employ-
ment (bottom of column (2)) and enter opposite Industrial
Area in column (4) as new source employment. (If negative,
enter as zero.)
6. Divide Industrial Area new source employment (or land use) by
total county projected Industrial Area employment (Table 3.4-5)
to obtain employment allocation proportion (EAP). Enter EAP
value to column (5) opposite Industrial Area.
7. Compute the subarea Industrial Area fuel demand as the product
of the EAP and the countywide fuel demand of Table 3.4-5 and
record opposite Industrial Area in column (6).
8. Fill in remainder of table (columns (7)-(21)) opposite Industrial
Area by assuming some fuel mix as countywide industrial fuel
combustion and source. Record sulfur and ash contents taking
account of control regulations in forecast years.
Industrial New Source Fuel Combustion Emissions by Process Category and
Subarea: Table 3.4-7a (continuation of Table 3.4-7)
Only the category Industrial Area is required in Order 1 analyses
for Table 3.4-7a.
1. Enter the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through D).
2. Enter the estimated control reduction factor (1.0 minus the
estimated proportional reduction in emissions attributable
to pollution control regulations), relative to baseline
year, opposite Industrial Area in the left-hand side of
columns (2)-(6). Compute the subarea forecast year Industrial
Area fuel combustion emissions as the product of fuel con-
sumption (from Table 3.4-7), appropriate fuel use emission
factors, and control reduction factors. Enter the results
in the right-hand side of columns (2)-(6).
Industrial Point and New Source Fuel Combustion Emissions - Subarea Summary:
Table 3.4-8 ~~~~~~~
Table 3.4-8 provides a summary of emissions (in this case point
sources and Industrial Area) by subarea. Record the sum of appropriate point
source fuel combustion emissions by subarea determined from Table 3.4-5a
and the Industrial Area fuel combustion emissions in columns (2)-(6) from
Table 3.4-7a, and sum over all subareas to obtain countywide totals.
Ill
-------
3.4.2.5 Order 2 Allocations
Industrial Point Source Fuel Use: Table 3.4-5
1. Fill in according to Order 1 procedures. For forecast
years, use the estimated growth factor for existing sources.
Industrial Point and New Source Energy Demand by Process Category:
Table 3.4-6~~
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. In column (1) enter the process category identification (SIC,
SCC, etc.) for which growth factors are greater than 1.0.
3. In column (2) enter the energy demand and in column (3) the
employment (or land use) for each process category for the
baseline year. This information is obtained by summing the
energy demand and employment over all individual sources in
each process category from Table 3.4-5.
4. Enter the total growth factor for each process category in
column (4).
5. Compute the forecast year energy demand and employment (or
land use) for all sources in each process category by multiply-
ing the baseline year energy demand and employment (or land
use) by the growth factor. Enter the results in columns
(5) and (6). (Employment or land use projections may also
be available from area planning studies.)
6. Record the total process category growth in energy demand and
employment (or land use) at existing sources from Table 3.4-5
in columns (8) and (9) for the appropriate process year.
7. Compute the forecast year new source energy demand for each
process category by subtracting column (7) from column (5)
and record in column (9). If any of the computations are
negative, record a zero in the column.
8. Compute the forecast year new source employment (or land use)
as the difference between columns (6) and (8) and enter in
column (10).
9. Repeat steps 1-8 for each forecast year.
112
-------
Industrial New Source Fuel Use by Process Category and Subarea: Table 3.4-7
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through D).
2. In column (1) enter the process category identification (SIC,
SCC, etc.) from column (1) of Table 3.4-6.
3. In column (2) enter the total process category employment
(or land use) in the subarea as determined from area planning
studies.
4. In column (3) enter existing point source process category
employment (or land use) by identifying sources located in
the subarea from Table 3.4-5. Record zero employment opposite
Industrial Area.
5. Compute new source process category employment (or land use)
as the difference between columns (2) and (3) and enter in
column (4). Record zero if the result is negative.
6. Compute the new source process category employment (or land
use) allocation proportion (EAP) as the ratio of the values
in column (4) to the county total new source process category
employment in column (10) of Table 3.4-6. Enter the results
in column (5).
7. Compute the new source energy demand in the subarea by multiply-
ing the total process category new source energy demand from
column (9) of Table 3.4-6 by the EAP of column (5). Enter the
results in column (6).
8. Fill in the remainder of the table (columns (7)-(23)) by supply-
ing a forecast of fuel use distribution for each process
category and subarea or by assuming the same fuel use distribu-
tion as in the baseline year. Record sulfur and ash content
taking account of control regulations in the forecast year.
Industrial New Source Fuel Combinations Emissions by Process Category and
Subarea:Table 3.4-7a (continuation of Table 3.4-7)
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through D).
2. Enter the estimated proportional reduction in emissions of each
pollutant due to control regulations relative to the baseline
year for each process category and record 1.0 minus this
proportional reduction in emissions in the left-hand side of
columns (2)-(6). Compute the subarea forecast year new source
fuel combustion emissions as the product of fuel combustion
(from Table 3.4-7), appropriate fuel use emission factors,
and control reduction factors, and enter the results in the
right-hand side of columns (2)-(6).
113
-------
Industrial Point and New Source Fuel Combustion Emissions - Subarea Summary:
Table 3.4-8 ' ~~
1. In each subarea, record existing point source fuel combustion
emissions and new source subarea fuel combustion emissions, and
sum to yield subarea totals.
2. Sum over subareas to yield county totals and check these with
the totals in Table 3.4-6.
3.4.2.6 Order 5 Allocations
Order 3 procedures follow the same general format as Order 2 pro-
cedures, except that point source field interview data is used in the analysis
to estimate the fraction of growth in existing sources. The remaining growth
is allocated to new sources following the Order 2 employment (or land use)
based allocation procedures.
Industrial Point Source Fuel Use: Table 3.4-5
1. Fill in following Order 1 procedures. Note that if the plant
survey gives an indication of new point source locations, these
should be included in the appropriate tables.
Industrial Point Source Fuel Combustion Emissions: Table 3.4-5a
1. Fill in according to Order 1 procedures.
Industrial Point and New Source Energy Demand by Process Category:
Table 3.4-6
1. Fill in according to steps 1-5 of Order 2 procedures.
2. Columns (7) and (8) are filled in using data for the
appropriate year from Table 3.4-5. These columns now represent
increased fuel demands at existing and new point sources.
This information is obtained from the plant survey.
3. Continue with remainder of Order 2 procedures.
Industrial New Source Fuel Use by Process Category and Subarea: Table 3.4-7
1. Fill in according to Order 2 procedures.
114
-------
Industrial New Source Fuel Combustion Emissions by Process Category and
Subarea: Table 3.4-7a
1. Fill in according to Order 2 procedures.
Industrial Point and Area Source Fuel Combustion Emissions - Subarea Summary:
Table 3.4-8~
1. Fill in according to Order 2 procedures.
115
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-------
3.5 SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL
3.5.1 Introduct ion
Emissions resulting from the incineration of solid waste can be
traced to three major types of area sources: residential, commercial/institu-
tional and industrial. The three Orders of increasingly more detailed
allocation procedures rely on population and/or employment distributions,
depending upon the type of source being considered. The techniques described
in this section will depend upon which of the subcounty population or
commercial/institutional-industrial data bases described in Section 2 are
chosen. Only solid waste that is disposed of by on-site incineration and
open burning will be considered. Solid waste incinerated in a municipal
incinerator is assumed to be included in the point source data. Landfill
is not considered as an emission source.
3.5.2 Data Requirements
Data required for allocating incineration emissions from each type
of source using each of the three Orders are as follows:
Order 1:
a. Actual and projected population and/or employment for each
specified subcounty area. (Sources: U.S. Census of Popu-
lation; or state, regional and local planning agencies.)
b. Estimated county totals (actual and projected) of solid
waste disposed by on-site incineration and open burning.
(Source: Analysis from Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7.)
Order 2:
a. Actual and projected populations and/or employment for
each specified subcounty area. (Sources: same as
Order 1.)
b. County totals (actual and projected) of solid waste dis-
posed of by on-site incineration and open burning.
(Sources: survey of county solid waste and land use
studies, analysis from Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7.)
117
-------
Order 5:
a. Actual and projected population and/or employment for each
specified subcounty area. (Sources: same as for Orders 1
and 2.)
b. County totals (actual and projected) of solid waste disposed
of by on-site incineration and open burning. (Sources: sur-
vey of county solid waste and land use studies and interviews
with county and local officials, analysis from Projecting
County Emissions: Volume 7.) *
3.5.3 Procedural Overview
Figure 3.5-1 diagrams the sequence in which the tables are to be
used for allocating emissions from solid waste. Because the allocation of
emissions from solid waste incineration involves three types of area sources,
all three orders of computation draw from previous sections dealing with
residential (Section 3.1), commercial/institutional (Section 3.3) and
industrial (Section 3.4) emissions. In each instance the population and
employment distributions used to allocate these emissions are developed
using tables the mechanics of which have already been detailed.
Order 1 procedures rely on the allocation of solid waste quantities
by population distribution for residential and commercial/institutional
sources and by employment for industrial sources. Order 2 differs in that
the commercial/institutional solid waste is allocated by employment. In
Order 3 reliance is placed on planning studies and interviews to determine
solid waste quantities in each subarea.
118
-------
Sequence of Tables
Allocation
Procedure
Order 1
10
3.1-1
3.5-1
3.5-2
3.5-3
3.5-4
Orders 2 and 3
.1-1
.0 j
3.5-1
3.5-2
3.5-3
3.5-4
Figure 3.5-1 Solid Waste Disposal Allocation Sequence
-------
Table 3.5-1
Manufacturing Employment-Based
Allocation Proportions for Subcounty Areas
A. County
B. Year '
C. Allocation Order 1,2 and 3
(1)
Subareas
(2)
Manufacturing
Employment
(3)
Allocation Proportion
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
D. COUNTY TOTAL
1.0
120
-------
Table 3.5-2
Annual Solid Waste Incineration
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation Order
2 and 3
(1)
Subareas
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
D. OHJNTi TOTAL
Annual Solid Waste Incineration by Source
(Tons/yr)
Residential
(2)
On- Site
Incin.
(3)
Open
Burning
ommercial/ Institutional
(4)
On- Site
Incin.
(5)
Open
Burning
Industrial
(6)
On-Site
Incin.
(7)
Open
Burning
121
-------
Table 3.5-3
Solid Waste Incineration Emission Factors
1
II Residential
"is o
Coramerc:
Institut]
Industrial
CD
On- Site Incineration
Open Burning
On- Site Incineration
Open Burning
On- Site Incineration
Open Burning
(2)
Part.
Emission Factors
(3)
(4)
CO
(5)
HC
(6)
N0x
122
-------
Table 3.5-4
Solid Waste Incineration Emissions
Allocated to Subcounty Areas
A. County
B. Year _
C. Allocation Order 1, Z and"3
(1)
Sub- areas
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
D. COUNTY TOTAL
missions
(tons/XT)
(2)
Part.
(3)
SO
X
(4)
CO
(5)
HC
(6)
N0x
123
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3.5.4 Order 1 Allocations
The least detailed procedure for allocating emissions from the
burning of solid waste relies upon distributions of the population and
manufacturing employment. County totals for the amount of material dis-
posed of through on-site incineration and open burning are first computed
for three types of area sources; residential, commercial/institutional and
industrial. Residential and commercial/institutional emissions are allocated
to subcounty areas on the basis of population distributions. Emissions from
industrial area source solid waste disposal are allocated according to the
distribution of manufacturing employment.
Population-based Allocation Proportions: Table 3.1-1
1. Fill in as described under the Order 1 analysis for residential
fuel combustion emissions (Section 3.1) if not already completed.
Manufacturing Employment-based Allocation Proportions: Table 3.5-1
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Fill in the subcounty area designations in column (1) consistent
with Table 3.1-1.
3. In column (2) enter the manufacturing employment (or land use)
in each subarea and in the Residual. The number of manufacturing
employees can be copied from the SUBAREA TOTAL row of Table
3.4-3 for each subcounty area.
4. Compute the employment allocation proportion and enter into
column (3) by dividing the subarea employment, by the COUNTY
TOTAL in row D. The total number of manufacturing employees
to be entered in row D can be copied directly from the COUNTY
TOTAL row of column (14) Table 3.4-2. (Refer to Table 3.1-1
for analogous detailed instructions in generating these employ-
ment allocation proportions.)
Annual Solid Waste Incineration: Table 3.5-2
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Fill in the subcounty area designations in column (1).
124
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3. In the COUNTY TOTAL row (row D) enter the solid waste totals
for on-site incineration and open burning from each source
category in columns (2)-(7). Obtain this information from
the analysis carried out per Projecting County Emissions:
Volume 7.
4. Handling each subcounty area, the TOTAL, and Residual separately,
allocate the total amount of solid waste disposed of in the
county by each burning method in the following way.
a. Residential and commercial/institutional solid waste.
Multiply the population allocation proportion from column
(3), Table 3.1-1, by the total amount of solid waste
disposed of through on-site incineration and open burning.
Enter the resulting amounts in columns (2)-(3).
b. Industrial solid waste
Multiply the manufacturing employment allocation proportion
from column (3), Table 3.5-1, by the total amount of solid
waste disposed of through on-site incineration and open
burning. Enter the resulting amounts in columns (6) and
(7).
Solid Waste Incineration Emission Factors: Table 3.5-3
1. Examine Table 3.5-3. Column (1) specifies incineration methods
for different sources used to dispose of solid waste. Columns
(2) through (6) indicate the five pollutants for which emissions
will be allocated to the various subcounty areas.
2. For each type of burning, locate the appropriate emission factor
from Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors (AP-42). Enter
this value in the appropriate cell.
Allocated Solid Waste Incineration Emissions: Table 3.5-4
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. For each source and burning method, multiply the solid waste
quantity in Table 3.5-2 columns (2)-(7) by the appropriate
emission factor of Table 3.5-3 and enter the summation in the
corresponding cell of this table.
3.5.5 Order 2 Allocations
In using an Order 2 analysis, amounts of burned refuse to be attributed
to residential, commercial/institutional and industrial area sources are ob-
tained from local solid waste studies using higher level analyses as in
125
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Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7. Residential solid waste quantities are allocated
to subcounty areas according to population distribution. Commercial/institu-
tional, and industrial solid waste quantities are allocated on the basis of
respective employment distributions.
Population-based Allocation Proportions: Table 3.1-1
1. Fill in as described under the Order 1 analysis for
residential fuel combustion emissions (Section 3.1) ,
if not already completed.
Commercial/Institutional Employment-based Allocation Proportions:
Table 3.3-3 ~~~
1. Fill in as described under the Order 2 analysis for
commercial/institutional fuel combustion emissions
(Section 3.3) if not already completed.
Manufacturing Employment-based Allocation Proportions: Table 3.5-1
1. Fill in as described under the Order 1 Allocations of this
section.
Annual Solid Waste Incineration: Table 3.5-2
1. Fill in as described in steps 1-3 under Order 1 Allocations
of this section.
NOTE: Mien proceeding to step 4a allocate the residential
solid waste by the population allocation proportion
of Table 3.1-1 and the commercial/institutional solid
waste by the employment allocation proportion of Table
3.3-3.
Solid Waste Incineration Emission Factors: Table 3.5-3
1. Fill in as described under Order 1 Allocations of this
section.
Allocated Solid Waste Incineration Emissions: Table 3.5-4
1. Fill in as described under Order 1 Allocations of this section.
126
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3.5.6 Order 3 Allocations
Order 3 provides the most extensive procedures for allocating emis-
sions from the incineration of solid waste because it requires surveying
local solid waste studies and interviewing local officials. Existing and
projected solid waste quantities obtained from these sources of information
should allow the user to determine directly the quantities of solid waste
incinerated in each subarea. The choice of municipalities as a subcounty
area set for this allocation procedure may facilitate the computations
since the data will most likely be on a municipality basis.
Population-based Allocation Proportions: Table 3.1-1
1. Fill in as described under the Order 1 analysis for residential
fuel combustion emissions (Section 3.1) if not already com-
pleted .
Commercial/Institutional Employment-based Allocation Proportions: Table 3.3-3
1. Fill in as described under the Order 2 analysis for commercial/
institutional fuel combustion emissions (Section 3.3) if not
already completed.
Manufacturing Employment-based Allocation Proportions: Table 3.5-1
1. Fill in as described under the Order 1 Allocations of this
section.
Annual Solid Waste Incineration: Table 3.5-2
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A through C).
2. Fill in the subcounty area designations in column (1).
3. For each subarea, the Residual, and the COUNTY TOTAL, enter
the quantity of solid waste burned by each incineration
method from the solid waste studies. Do this for each source
category.
Solid Waste Incineration Emission Factors: Table 3.5-3
1. Fill in as described under Order 1 Allocations of this section.
Allocated Solid Waste Incineration Emissions: Table 3.5-4
1. Fill in as described in steps 1 and 2 under Order 1 allocations of
this section.
127
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3.6 MISCELLANEOUS SOURCES
3.6.1 Introduction
This category is designed to serve as a catchall for sources not
covered in the previous emission source groupings. As such, the sources are
likely to be specialized and uniquely defined in terms of their emission
characteristics. Examples of the types of sources included here are fugitive
dust sources, forest fires and slash burning, and agricultural frost control.
Also, this category can conceivably include a multitude of different types
of sources, which makes the delineation of a generalized methodology very
difficult. Nevertheless, for the sake of providing some structural format
for the allocation of these emissions to subcounty areas two procedures will
be outlined: one for sources which are distributed more or less throughout
the whole country, one for sources located only in specific areas. Only one
allocation Order will be prescribed.
3.6.2 Data Requirements
The data required for each source includes the pollutant emission
rate, a distribution of source activity throughout the county (if it is
widely distributed), and the' specific location(s) of the source (if it is
only in a few areas).
3.6.3 Procedural Overview
For widely distributed sources the allocation procedure is to define
a distribution of source activity throughout the county and allocate the emis-
sions accordingly. This distribution may be one of the previously used
functions (e.g, population, employment, land use, etc.) or may be some other
parameter determined to be more relevant. Likewise, the subcounty area set
may be one already used or an entirely new one.
Sources located in specific areas only may be treated in the same
fashion as are airports and railroad yards, for example. A square is drawn
around the source location and is identified by the coordinates of its lower
left-hand corner and the length of a side. More than one square can be used
if necessary.
129
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Table 3.6-1
Distributed Miscellaneous Source Emissions
A. County
B. Year
(1)
Sub county Area
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
C. COUNTY TOTAL
(i)
Activity
Pro portion
(3)
Part
Emissions
(tons/yr)
w
so
(5)
CO
(6)
HC
(7)
NO
130
-------
Table 3.6-2
Isolated Miscellaneous Source Emissions
\. County
B. UMI-
Source
Coordinates
(1)
Length of
Square
hmis s io
Ctons/yr)
Part.
('1)
SO
(6)
H(
131
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3.6.4 Allocation Procedures for Distributed Miscellaneous Sources
This procedure uses Table 3.6-1 to record the emissions. The sub-
county areas used and the activity proportions may be drawn from previously
completed tables if desired.
Distributed Miscellaneous Source Emissions: Table 3.6-1
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the tables
(items A through B).
2. In column (1) enter the chosen subcounty area designations.
In columns (3) through (7) of the COUNTY TOTAL row .(row C)
enter the countywide emissions from the source as computed
by the analysis per Projecting County Emissions: Volume 7.
3. In column (2) enter the chosen activity proportion (population,
employment, land use, etc.).
4. Multiply the emissions in row C by the activity proportion of
column (2) for each subcounty area and the Residual and
enter into columns (3) through (7).
5. Fill out a separate table for each miscellaneous source.
3.6.5 Allocation Procedures for Isolated Miscellaneous Sources
This procedure uses Table 3.6-2 to record the emissions. The first
step is to locate the sources by drawing a square (or severed squares if
necessary) around the source. Emissions are then treated as coming from this
area source.
Isolated Miscellaneous Source Emissions: Table 3.6-2
1. Fill in the descriptive information at the top of the table
(items A and B).
2. For the square(s) surrounding each source enter the coordinates
of the lower left-hand corner and the length of the square in
columns (1) and (2), respectively.
3. Enter the source emissions in columns (3) through (7).
132
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4.0 MASTER GRIDDING
To this point each of the stages of the allocation procedure have
been handled separately: population, transportation, commercial/institutional-
industrial, and miscellaneous. It is entirely conceivable that at this point
the emissions from each source category have been allocated to a separate set
of subcounty areas each distinct from the other. From the standpoint of dis-
persion modeling, there is no conceptual problem in this since each of the
subareas in each of the sets can be treated as an individual source. There
is no problem with geographically overlapping sources and the only constraint
on conducting the modeling with a multitude of subareas is that the required
computer time and storage space can become excessive.
From the standpoint of air quality maintenance regulations, the
overlapping subareas may confuse the picture as to where control strategies
should be implemented. This is not an insurmountable problem and there are
some advantages to keeping the emission source allocations in separate sub-
area sets.
Notwithstanding the lack of any major problems in keeping the sub-
county areas separate, it is recommended that a single master grid system
be developed on which to coordinate the results from all the previous analy-
ses. Some additional effort will be required to develop the grid but will
result in bypassing the aforementioned problems.
The grid system that is developed need not be based on a rectangular
coordinate system and any of the previously defined subcounty area sets could
serve as the master grid. For the sake of generality, however, the procedure
for developing a rectangular master grid will be developed here.
It is recommended that the Universal Transverse Creator (UTM)
coordinate system be used as the basis for the master grid because of its wide
application throughout the country. The individual grid squares will vary in
size depending on the resolution of the individual subcounty area sets. The
smallest grid square chosen should be 1 km x 1 km. Smaller grids would result
in a resolution that in all probability does not exist in the original data
set. In addition, air pollutant dispersion models that will require grids of
integer length are being designed by the EPA. The largest grid square chosen
should be 8 km x 8 km. Larger grids would probably cancel some of the
133
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subcounty allocation resolution achieved by the previous analyses. In
addition, the 8x8 structure allows an integer subdivision of grids down
to the 1x1 grid. Figures 4.1-1 and 4.1-2 illustrate typical grid overlays.
The following steps are designed to describe the step-by-step
details of master gridding.
Master Gridding Procedure: Tables 4-1 and 4-2
1. On a sheet of transparent plastic (e.g. Mylar) draw a square
grid system using the largest grid chosen (e.g., 8 km x 8 km).
Use the same scale as the map of the population-based subcounty
areas used in Section 3-1.
2. Overlay this sheet onto the map of the population-based sub-
county areas and line up the grid squares with the coordinate
system (preferably UTM).
3. Going over the entire map, subdivide the grid squares wherever
there are a number of subcounty areas within a single grid.
Subdivide until the smallest chosen grid size is reached or
until the subdivision contains only one subcounty area (see
Figures 4.1-1 and 4.1-2).
4. Remove the grid system from the population-based subcounty
area set and lay it over the transportation subcounty area
set (if different from the population set). Perform additional
subdivision of the grid where necessary using the same criteria
as for the population subcounty area set.
5. Repeat the procedure for the commercial/institutional-industrial
subcounty area set and the miscellaneous subcounty area set.
6. Take the fully subdivided grid and replace it over the population
subarea set.
7. In column (1) of Table 4-1 enter the designation of the first
master grid square. In column (2) enter the designation of all
the subcounty areas which fall into the master grid square.
8. Map the subcounty areas onto the master grid by estimating
the fraction of subcounty area in the master grid square and
enter this fraction in column (3) of Table 4.1 (The assumption
is made that the emissions are uniformly distributed over each
subcounty area; therefore, the emissions can be apportioned to
the master grid square on the basis of area.) The estimate can
be made using a visual judgment, a planimeter, or other pro-
cedure. For most applications the visual judgment will probably
be inadequate. (This step may indicate the need to refine the
Master Grid to aid precision.)
134
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17 725 733 74I 749 757 765 773
37
90
BOUNDARY SYMBOLS
CENSUS TRACT BOUNDARIES
COUNTY
CORPORATE LIMIT
CENSUS TRACT DIVISON
SUPER DISTRICT
4 0
I , , , I
KILOMETERS
Figure 4.1-1 Master Grid Overlay
135
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BOUNDARY SYMBOLS
CENSUS TRACT BOUNDARIES
COUNTY
— CORPORATE LIMIT
CENSUS TRACT DIVISION
SUPER DISTRICT
NORTHEAST
CBD
01234
I I I I I
KILOMETERS
Figure 412 Master Grid Overlay: Insert
136
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9. Repeat the procedure for the transportation, commercial/
institutional-industrial, and miscellaneous subcounty area
sets.
10. Starting with the first master grid square, compute its emis-
sions by multiplying the emissions from each subcounty area
contained in the master grid by the fraction of that subarea
that is in the master grid and enter the result in Table 4-2.
Repeat for all master grid squares.
11. At this point air quality dispersion modeling can be performed
using the master grids as area sources, the commercial/insti-
tutional -industrial point sources, and the limited access
highway line sources. Alternatively the line sources and
point sources can be assigned to the master grid squares in
which they are located.
This completes the allocation of emissions from county to subcounty
areas. The user is referred to other volumes in this series for the remainder
of the air quality maintenance planning procedures.
137
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Table 4.1
Master Grid Mapping
A. County
B. Subcounty Area Set
(1)
Master Grid
Designation
(2)
Subcounty Area
Designation
(3)
Fraction of Subcounty
Area in Master Grid
138
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Table 4.2
Nfester Grid Emissions
A. County
B. Year
(1)
Master Grid
Designation
Emissions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
(3)
SO
(4)
CO
(5)
HC
(6)
NO
139
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Acknowledgments
The Energy and Environmental Systems Division (EES) of Argonne
National Laboratory extends gratitude to the many individuals and several
organizations that contributed to the successful completion of this document.
Messrs. David C. Sanchez and John Silvasi of the Standards Implementa-
tion Branch, EPA, Durham, North Carolina served as project officers at different
stages of the study. Their comments and suggestions have contributed greatly
to the document and its integration with other volumes of the series Guidelines
for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis.
Several state and local agencies contributed financial support and
supplied data for this study and their assistance is sincerely acknowledged.
Special gratitude is extended to the Illinois Institute for Environmental
Quality (IIEQ) for funding previous research efforts dealing with air quality
maintenance that served to develop the foundation for the methodology pre-
sented in this document. Particular thanks is also extended to the Atlanta
Regional Commission (ARC) for supplying data used to test the application of
this methodology on Fulton County, Georgia (Appendices A and B). Members of
the Region IV Office of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency also con-
tributed several helpful suggestions that were integrated in this test case.
We also extend thanks to the many EES staff members who made signifi-
cant contributions to this project. Mr. Michael L. Wilkey supervised the
Fulton County test case of the methodology. Messrs. Walter W. Clapper and
Robert J. Neisius drafted all of the graphics and Ms. Marjorie A. Brockman
typed the final manuscript. Ms. Olga Skala read many versions of the manu-
script and made innumerable contributions to its final form.
While all of the above were very helpful throughout the project, the
authors alone are accountable for any of its deficiencies.
140
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
1970 Census of Housing; Series HC (1)-B, Detailed Housing Characteristics.
U.S. Bureau of the Census. Washington, B.C.
1970 Census of the Population; Series PC(1)-D, Detailed Characteristics.
U.S. Bureau of the Census. Washington, B.C.
Cirillo, Richard R. , and Wolsko, Thomas D. , Handbook of Air Pollutant
Emissions from Transportation Systems ; ANL/ES-28. Argonne National
Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois. December 1973.
Climatic Atlas of the United States. U.S. Department of Commerce.
Washington, D.C. June 1968.
Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors (AP-42) . U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency. Research Triangle Park, North Carolina. April 1973.
Computer Assisted Area Source Emissions Gridding Procedure. Research Triangle
Institute. January 1974. Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning
and Analysis: Volume 8.
Economic Projections for Air Quality Control Regions. A report to the
National Air Pollution Control Administration, NEW, prepared by the U.S.
Dept. of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and the U.S. Bept . of
Agriculture, Economic Research Service. June 1970.
Guide For Compiling a Comprehensive Emission Inventory; APIB 1135. U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
Highway Capacity Manual. Highway Research Board. Washington, D.C. 1965
Kennedy, A.S., Baldwin, T. E., Croke, K. G. , and Gudenas , J. W. , Air
Pollution/Land Use Planning Project Phase II Final Report; "Volume II,
Methods for Predicting Air Pollution Concentrations From Land Use."
Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, Illinois. May 1973.
Land Use and Transportation Considerations. A. M. Vorhees and Associates,
EPA-14/4- 74-004. August 1974.
Projecting County Emissions. Booz, Allen and Hamilton, Inc. July 22, 1974.
Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and Analysis: Volume 7.
Standard Industrial Classification Manual. Office of Statistical Standards.
Washington, D.C.
Time-Saver Standards: A Handbook of Architectural Design. McGraw-Hill, Inc.
1966":
141
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APPENDIX A
Trial Application of the Subcounty Emission Allocation Procedures
to Fulton County, Georgia
A.I Introduction
This appendix illustrates results from the practical application
of the methodology for Allocating Projected Emissions to Subcounty Areas
to Fulton County (Atlanta), Georgia. Fulton was selected as a case study
for this procedure because it represents a typical medium-sized Air Quality
Control Region (AQCR) county. The case study therefore provides a reasonable
example of the kinds of data that are available, the types of assumptions
that will be necessary to apply these data to the methodology, and the level
of effort needed to complete the allocations for an average size county.
It has been impossible to append to this volume of the Guidelines
all of the tables necessary for the Fulton County test case. Therefore, the
results of this practical exercise have been published in two Appendices.
Appendix A, which is here attached to Volume 15, describes how data were
adapted for implementation and briefly highlights results obtained from the
Fulton County analysis. The complete set of tables generated for the test
case have been published separately as Appendix B. Copies of Appendix B
are available upon request from the USEPA Air Pollution Technical Information
Center, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711 and from the National
Technical Information Service, 5825 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia
22161.
In addition to this introduction, which constitutes Section 1,
Appendix A is divided into three other sections. Section 2 is subdivided
into five parts that correspond with each of the different types of sources
treated in Allocating Projected Emissions to Subcounty Areas (e.g., residen-
tial fuel combustion, transportation, commercial/institutional fuel combustion,
industrial process and fuel combustion, and solid waste incineration. Each of
these sections discusses the allocation Order applied, data employed, assess-
ments of the quality and suitability of these data to the specified procedure,
143
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problems encountered, and assumptions in force. The text pertaining to each
source category also includes a brief summary of emission results and, where
possible, compares the results with calculations that have been independently
prepared elsewhere. Section 3 of Appendix A deals with the master gridding
technique applied to Fulton County. The procedure is described and a map
illustrating the gridded overlay is presented. Section 4 presents the final
output of the subcounty emission allocation methodology, [n addition to
illustrating the summary tables, conclusions and recommendations for further
analysis are presented here.
144
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A.2 Emission Sources
A.2.1 Residential Fuel Combustion Missions
To gain a better understanding of the sensitivity of area source
(e.g., residential fuel combustion, commercial/institutional fuel combustion
and solid waste incineration) emission calculations to the choice of alloca-
tion Order, residential fuel combustion emissions were computed for 1970,
using each of the three Orders. While there was no significant difference
in the estimates of countywide fuel use when treated by the different Orders,
the Order 3 estimates of fuel combustion for particular subareas were different
from those derived from the Order 1 and 2 computations. Therefore, because the
Order 3 calculation typically yields a more accurate characterization of fuel
use for particular subareas, it should be preferred wherever data and resources
permit its use.
Fulton County's residential fuel combustion emissions were projected
for 1975, 1980, and 1985 using an Order 3 analysis. The number of dwelling units
in each of seven municipalities within Fulton County was obtained for 1970
from the 1972 County and City Databook, and projections for the number of
households in these subareas for 1975, 1980, and 1985 were taken from com-
puter output supplied by the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC). Growth
factors for the five-year periods 1970-75, 1975-80, and 1980-85 were then
computed for the households in each subarea. Table A.2-1 enumerates the raw
household data and the growth factors that were developed from them. These
growth factors were then sequentially applied to the 1970 dwelling-unit base
data to project the number of dwelling units in each subarea for 1975, 1980,
and 1985. Thus, by making the assumption that the number of households mirrors
the number of dwelling units, it was possible to carry out the Order 3 com-
putation.
Residential building size and fuel use distributions were obtained
from the 1970 Census of Housing. As it was not possible to obtain these data
from the ARC Data Center, the building size and fuel use distributions were
held constant from 1970 through 1985. The fuel combustion emission factors
taken from The Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors (AP-42) were also
held constant over the study period. Therefore, because it was assumed that
the number of dwelling units changed, proportionate to the five-year growth
rates, emissions were sequentially calculated for each forecast year as the
145
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Table A.2-1
Total Households and Growth Factors
Fulton County, Georgia
Subareas
Atlanta
Fairburn
Hapeville
Rosswell
Union City
East Point
College Park
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
FULTON COUNTY
TOTAL
Households
1970
148,750
1,211
3,517
2,326
1,893
13,005
5,446
176,151
21,401
197,552
Growth
Factor
1970-75
1.04
1.36
1.06
1.47
1.50
1.16
1.35
1.08
1.52
1.12
Households
1975
155,113
1,642
3,747
3,428
2,840
15,156
7,356
189,282
32,538
991 O9H
LJ £j -L y U^ \J
Growth
Factor
1975-80
1.04
1.26
1.06
1.32
1.33
1.14
1.26
1.07
1.23
1.11
Households
1980
161,473
2,074
3,977
4,531
3,787
17,306
9,267
202,415
43,674
246,089
Growth
Factor
1980-85
1.07
1.40
1.04
1.32
1.32
1.09
1.12
1.09
1.47
1.16
Households
1985
173,383
2,913
4,152
6,035
4,998
18,874
10,356
220,711
64,151
284,862
Households
1990
185,293
3,752
4,328
7,539
6,210
20,441
11,444
239,007
84,628
323,635
urowth factors were not computed for the five-year period 1985-90. The 1990 data were used only to
interpolate the projected number of households for 1985.
-------
product of the growth rate and emissions from the previous year beginning with
1970 as the base year. The 3.1-9 Tables illustrate Fulton County emissions
distributed among the seven municipalities and the Residual for 1970 and
1975.
Minor problems were encountered in trying to determine the geographic
compatibility between municipalities as defined by the U.S. Bureau of the
Census and ARC, and it was necessary to assume a one-to-one relationship be-
tween household and dwelling unit growth rates. Nevertheless, we feel that
this Order 3 analysis provided more realistic estimates of emissions for the
particular municipalities than would have been the case if Orders 1 and 2 had
been used. We would, therefore, encourage prospective users to make similar
assumptions if they lead to the use of data that facilitate the application
of Order 3.
147
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Table 3.1-9
Residential Fuel Combustion Bnissions
Allocated to Subcounty Areas
Fulton
^. County
3. Year 1970
C. Allocation Order
CD
Sub area
Atlanta
Fairburn
Eapeville
Rosswell
Union City
East Point
College Park
SIT3 ARE.-. IOIAL
Residual
D. COUNTY ?:TAL
Emissions
(tor.s/yr)
(2)
Part.
146.74
2.16
7.15
3.37
1.74
26.02
2.77
189.96
51.52
2^1. >8
(3)
SO
X
197.75
6.13
20.21
9.54
4.91
73.51
.09
312.16
:.-3.£5
457.59
(4)
CO
136.36
1.63
5-57
2.62
1.36
20.28
2.92
170.73
40.11
210.84
(S)
HCa
(6)
xoxa
"These pollutants have been excluded from this analysis as they will
be treated on an AQCR basis.
148
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Table 3.1-9
Residential Fuel Combustion Emissions
Allocated to Subeounty Areas
Fulton
A. County
3. Year 1975
C. Allocation Order
(1)
Subarea
Atlanta
Fairburn
Hapevilie
Rosswell
Union City
East Point:
College Park
5 13 AREA TOTAL
Residual
I). CCu\7Y TCT.'-L
Emissions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
153.05
2,93
7.61
4.97
2.61
30.31
3.74
20r..22
73.31
233.53
(3)
SO
X
206.25
8.31
21.52
14.06
7.?6
85.64
.12
343.26
221.69
56^.95
(4)
CO
142.22
2.21
5.93
3.86
2.04
23,63
3.94
183.83
60.97
24 +. 30
(5)
KCa
(6)
xoxa
These pollutants have been excluded from this analysis as they will be
treated on an AQCR basis.
149
-------
A.2.2 Transportation Emissions
An Order 1 analysis was used to project and allocate transportation
emissions in Fulton County because more detailed data needed to carry out
the higher Order calculations could not be obtained and implemented within
the time frame of the case study. This analysis was confined to limited and
non-limited access highways, and we feel that the motor vehicle emissions
estimates are conservative (i.e., high), because the method used to forecast
emissions was not adjusted to consider the existence and/or expansion of
the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit System (MARTA) or the construction of
any additional highway or arterial street links. Therefore, the emission
forecasts for 1975, 1980, and 1985 are not expected to be representative of
the actual situation in Fulton County, Georgia.
Necessary forecasts of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) were derived from
population projections. Population data for Fulton County and each of the
seven municipalities used as subareas for the residential fuel combustion
analysis were obtained for 1970, 1980, and 1990 from ARC. Population growth
rates were then calculated for each of the three five-year intervals (1970-75,
1975-80, and 1980-85) by interpolating from the decade-based data, such that
the percentage growth in the first five years equaled the percentage growth
in the second five years. These population growth rates for the Fulton County
subareas are shown in Table A.2-2.
VMT for limited and non-limited access highways were derived from
the population forecasts using 1970 as the base. VMT for each limited access
highway link was then calculated successively for each projection year (1975
1980, and 1985) by multiplying VMT from the previous year (beginning with 1970)
by the countywide population growth rate for the appropriate five-year inter-
val. Thus, annual miles driven on limited access highways for each vehicle
class is assumed to increase at the same rate as total population growth
in the county, and the volume on every highway link is assumed to grow at
these same rates. Growth in VMT for non-limited access highways was also linked
to population growth. But instead of keying it to estimates of countywide
population growth, non-limited access highway links were specifically located
in the seven municipalities or treated as rural road links. In this way
VMT increases for non-limited access highways were broken down and projected
according to growth rates for the specific subareas considered (e.g. , munici-
palities) .
150
-------
Table A.2-2
Population Growth Factors:
Fulton County, Georgia
Subareas
Atlanta
Fairburn
Hap evil le
Rosswell
Union City
East Point
College Park
SUBAREA TOTAL
Residual
1970-75
.97
1.47
1.02
1.64
1.11
1.42
1.01
1.33
1975-80
.96
1.48
1.03
1.65
1.11
1.41
1.02
1.33
1980-85
1.04
1.33
.98
1.32
1.28
.99
1.06
1.05
1.45
FULTON COUNTY
TOTAL 1.05 1.05 1.13
-------
The above procedures were implemented merely as substitutes for
State Highway Department projections of VMT that could not be obtained in time
to prepare the Fulton County example. Due to extensive transportation plan-
ning at the state and county levels and the Federal Highway Administration
3-C planning requirements, it is unlikely that similar deficiencies of data
will occur where the Subcounty Emission Allocation procedures are to be
applied. Therefore, it is not recommended that forecasts be developed using
the procedure employed here, because the effects of all known changes, such
as Atlanta's new transit system (MARTA) and proposed highway construction,
should be accounted for in any forecast of VMT.
Two additional assumptions were employed in the Fulton County test
case. These are more generally applicable to the country as a whole, and
we recommend their use where data are lacking for a specific county under
study. First, the national average vehicle age distribution from the
Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors (AP-42), weighted by annual
miles driven in Fulton County, was applied to all forecast years. We
reasoned that the vehicle age distribution will change in the future but
such modified projections could not be obtained. Second, the speed cor-
rection factors for limited access highways were also determined using AP-42
and the average speed for these highways was assumed to be 45 mph, which is a
conservative estimate.
As an overall assessment of these estimates for mobile source emis-
sions, correlation analyses conducted at Argonne have indicated that popu-
lation is a rather strong predictor of VMT. Based on these results, the
emission estimates developed in this population-based analysis are judged to
be as refined as the Order 1 procedure will permit under the conditions
specified above. The availability of more refined highway data and a mobile
source emissions model would undoubtedly yield more accurate predictions of
transportation emissions than has been possible here. The 3.2-11 Table illus-
trates the summary allocation of transportation emissions to subareas of Fulton
County for 1980.
152
-------
A. County Fulton
B. Year noon
C. Allocation Order ]_
Table 3.2-11
Transportation Emissions
Allocated to Subcounty Areas
Emissions
(tons/yr)
(1)
Sub area
Atlanta
Fairburn
Hapeville
Rosswell
Union City
East Point
College Park
SUBAWLA TOTAL
Residual
D. COUNTY TOTAL
(2)
Part.
527.0
8.3
12.6
18.4
15.9
60.1
30.9
672.8
204.0
876.8
(3)
SO
202.2
3.2
4.9
7.1
6.1
23.2
11.9
259.3
78.6
337.9
(4)
CO
31975.8
492.6
748.4
1100.4
945.0
3585.7
1833.7
40681.5
12208t.2
52889.7
CS)
HCa
UO
NO a
.X
These pollutants have been excluded from this analysis as they will be
treated on an AQCR basis.
153
-------
A-2.3 Commercial/Institutional Fuel Combustion Emissions
An Order 2 analysis was performed to allocate emissions resulting
from the combustion of fuel used to heat commercial and institutional build-
ings in Fulton County. This was chosen as the highest Order of analysis
feasible because the building size and fuel use distributions required for
an Order 3 analysis were not available. Therefore, the allocated emissions
derived from this investigation are characteristic of those that can be
anticipated from the intermediate level of detail.
To obtain projections of commercial/institutional employment neces-
sary for the Order 2 analysis, data were obtained from ARC and the 1972
County and City Databook. The employment projections supplied by ARC were
provided in the form of computer output displaying the total number of employees
for 1970, 1980 and 1990 in each of ten Superdistricts that comprise Fulton
County. These Superdistricts were listed as follows:
Number Designation
10 Atlanta, CBD
11 Atlanta, Northeast
12 Atlanta, Northwest
13 Atlanta, Southeast
14 Atlanta, Southwest
15 Tri-Cities
16 South Fulton
17 Atlanta, Buckhead
18 Sandy Springs
19 North Fulton
As a first step the total number of employees for 1970, 1980 and 1990 were
interpolated to obtain estimates of 1975 and 1985 employment for the County
and each of the Superdistricts.
Since the ARC data enumerated only the total number of employees, it
was necessary to estimate the number of persons employed in commercial and
institutional establishments, based on 1970 employment percentages enumerated
in the Databook. The percentage of commercial/institutional employees was
developed for the county and municipalities with 1970 populations of 25,000 or
more, by summing the employment percentages for wholesale and retail trade,
services and educational services available in the Databook. Because the
154
-------
applicable information in the Databook pertained only to municipalities with
1970 populations of 25,000 or more, the commercial/institutional employment
percentages were applied to the various Superdistricts in the following way.
A constant commercial/institutional percentage was applied to each of the
six Atlanta Superdistricts (numbers 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 17). By the same
token, the commercial/institutional employment percentage obtained for East
Point was applied to the Tri-Cities Superdistrict (Number 15).* Using the
total number of employees from the ARC data and the employment percentages
derived from the Databook, the number of commercial/institutional employees
were calculated for the County as a whole and for Superdistricts 10, 11, 12
13, 14, 15 and 17. These numbers were obtained for each area by multiplying
the total number of employees by the commercial/institutional employment
percentage. The 1970 commercial/institutional employment percentage was
uniformly applied to the total number of employees for 1970 and each forecast
year (1975, 1980 and 1985) to obtain the number of commercial/institutional
employees for each year under investigation. This calculation is summarized
in formula (1).
(1) CIEij = TE.. x PCIEil970
where:
CIE.. = Commercial/institutional employees in Superdistrict
1-' (or County) i in year j .
TE. = Total employees in Superdistrict (or county) i in
year j.
PCIE.iq7f) = Percent of employment in commercial and institutional
1 establishments in Superdistrict (or county) i in 1970.
Although there are three municipalities (College Park, East Point and Hape-
ville) located in this Superdistrict, only East Point had a 1970 population
greater than 25,000 and was therefore the only place for which data were
enumerated in the 1972 County and City Databook.
155
-------
The remaining Superdistricts (e.g., numbers 16, South Fulton; 18,
Sandy Springs; and 19, North Fulton) were treated as the Residual for
Fulton County because the necessary commercial/institutional employment per-
centages for these areas could not be obtained from the Databook. Thus, the
number of employees treated in this Residual had to be estimated from the county
total and Superdistricts already considered. The commercial/institutional
employees for Superdistricts 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 17 were summed and
this result was subtracted from the total number of commercial/institutional
employees for Fulton County to obtain the commercial/institutional employees
for the Residual.
The number of employees used to generate the proportions by which
commercial/institutional emissions were allocated are shown in Table A.2-3.
The 3.3-11 Table illustrates allocated commercial/institutional fuel com-
bustion emissions for 1975.
156
-------
Table A.2-3
Commercial/Institutional Employment:
Fulton County, Georgia
SD #
10
11
12
13
14
17
15
Name
Atlanta,
CBD
Atlanta,
Northeast
Atlanta,
Northwest
Atlanta,
Southeast
Atlanta,
Southwest
Atlanta,
Buckhead
Tri-Cities
. , -.a
Res idual
FULTON COUNTY
TOTAL
1970
41,877
37,957
21,211
18,619
14,800
13,798
16,511
4,858
169,631
1975
45,091
38,150
23,736
19,641
16,064
15,801
18,151
10,664
187,298
1980
48,305
38,342
26,261
20,663
17,329
17,804
19,790
16,470
204,964
1985
50,925
38,777
29,249
22,046
20,149
19,877
22,471
23,505
226,999
residual is comprised of superdistricts #16 [South Fulton), #18 (Sandy Springs) and
#19 (North Fulton).
-------
Table 5.5-11
Cc—-:-rciaI/Ir.stituricnal Fuel Coirbustion Emssior
Allocsted to Sub-County Areas
A. County _ Fulton
3. Year
C. Allocation Orce:
(1)
Subarsa
10 - CBD
11 - Northeast
12 - Northwest
13 - Southeast
14 - Southwest
15 - Tri-Cities
17 - Buddie ad
SJ=-JT)
(2;
Part.
55.95
47.12
29.43
24.37
19.96
22.53
19.51
(3)
SO
X
85.02
71.59
44.80
57.02
50.55
34.22
29.63
218.92 j 53?. 63
13.23
232.15
2-1.09
J5-\7?
1
(4)
CO
47.25
39.80-
24.90
20.58
16 - 86
19.02
16.47
184.88
11.17
196.05
(>)
HCa
(V
NO a
X
pollutants have been excluded from this analysis as they
be treated on an AQCR basis.
158
-------
A.2.4 Industrial Process and Fuel Combustion Emissions
It was impossible to survey the management of industrial sources in
Fulton County regarding their plans for expanding existing facilities or
constructing plants at new sites. Therefore, the direct application of an
Order 3 analysis could not be achieved and features of Orders 2 and 3 have
been combined to yield the most extensive analysis possible. This approach
illustrates options that are available to the innovative user who wants to
obtain refined estimates of industrial emissions, but who is constrained
because the detailed field survey information required for an Order 3 analysis
is lacking.
Ideally, the purest application of an Order 3 analysis requires that
the proposed size (i.e., anticipated employment levels) and location of new
industrial sources be known. Since field surveys could not be administered,
projections of new source employment levels were not available for Fulton
County. Therefore, the growth of new point sources was estimated on the basis
of growth in industrial land use, and emissions attributable to the construction
of new plants were allocated according to these subarea-specific changes in
industrial land use. Land use data were obtained from ARC for each of the
ten areas called Superdistricts that comprise Fulton County (see Section A.2.3
of this Appendix for a list of these Superdistricts). These data provided an
inventory of used acreage for 1970 as well as projections of used land for
1980 and 1990. After interpolating to obtain projections of the total land
area projected to be in use for 1975 and 1985, the number of acres devoted to
industrial activity in each Superdistrict was calculated. This industrial land
area was obtained for each year under investigation (1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985)
by multiplying the total acreage of used land in each Superdistrict by the
percent of used acreage devoted to industrial activity in each Superdistrict.
Formula (2) summarizes this calculation.
(2) L^ = TALK x PAIL x PIAi
where:
IA- = Industrial acreage in Superdistrict i
TAU.= Total acres used in Superdistrict i.
PAU.= Percent of acreage used in Superdistrict i.
PIA.= Percent of total acreage used, devoted to industrial
1 activity in Superdistrict i.
159
-------
The Superdistrict-specific change in industrial acreage was then computed
for the five-year intervals 1970-75, 1975-80 and 1980-85 by subtracting the
industrial acreage for each forecast year from the industrial acreage for
the baseline year (1970). This calculation is summarized by formula (3).
(3) AIA.. = IAij - IAil97()
where A^ii = ^nange i-n industrial acreage for Superdistrict i
•* between forecast year j and 1970.
lAj. = Industrial acreage for Superdistrict i in forecast
J year j .
= Industrial acreage for Superdistrict i in 1970.
To allocate the forecast-year-specific change in industrial land among the
various Superdistricts , the results obtained from the application of
formula (2) were divided by the difference in the countywide industrial
acreage between 1970 and the forecast year in question. The calculation
for this industrial land use growth factor is illustrated in formula (4) .
(4) AAREA =
1J
where :
AAKEA. . = Change in industrial land area apportioned to Superdistrict
1-' i for forecast year j .
AIA. - = Change in industrial acreage for Superdistrict i between
^ forecast year j and 1970.
TIA. = Total industrial acreage for Fulton County in forecast year j
TIAiq7f) = Total industrial acreage for Fulton County in 1970.
This subarea-specific growth factor for industrial land use was then used to
allocate emissions attributable to the siting of new point sources in each
Superdistrict. The industrial acreage and land use growth factor for each of
the ten Fulton County Superdistricts is shown in Table A. 2-4.
160
-------
Table A.2-4
Industrial Land Use Change
Fulton County, Georgia
Subareas
10 Atlanta,
CBD
11 Atlanta,
Northeast
12 Atlanta,
Northwest
13 Atlanta,
Southeast
14 Atlanta,
Southwest
15 Tri-Cities
16 South
Fulton
17 Atlanta,
Buckhead
18 Sandy
Springs
19 North
Fulton
FULTON COUNTY
TOTAL
Industrial Land Usea
(ACRES)
1970
133
795
1665
1137
930
825
216
125
121
88
6035
1975
132
735
1759
1151
1006
846
420
146
169
145
6509
1980
132
675
1852
1165
1082
868
623
167
216
203
6983
1985
131
707
1956
1198
1182
912
795
195
255
326
7657
1970-75
-0.002
-0.126
0.198
0.030
0.160
0.044
0.430
0.044
0.101
0.120
474
Industrial Land
1975-80
-0.001
-0.127
0.197
0.030
0.160
0.045
0.429
0.045
0.100
0.121
948
Use Change
1980-85
-0.001
-0.054
0.179
0.038
0.155
0.054
0.357
0.043
0.147
0.147
1622
Equivalent to IA specified in formula (1) .
Equivalent to AAREA specified in formula (3).
-------
Using identification coordinates listed in the National Emissions Data
Systems (NEDS), all point sources were located on a map of Fulton County indi-
cated with universal Transmercator (UTM) grid tics and boundaries of the 10
ARC Superdistricts. These sources were then grouped within each Superdistrict
according to industrial process categories delineated in the OBERS projections
of economic activity. Each source's pollutant-specific emissions for the base
year (1970) were then recorded from the NEDS file for Fulton County onto the
appropriate working tables. Next, the total emissions for each source were
calculated for each forecast year (1975, 1980, and 1985). This was accom-
plished by multiplying the source's 1970 baseline emissions by the growth
factor for its industrial process category determined from the OBERS pro-
jections for the Atlanta SMSA. Emissions attributable to the construction of
sources at new locations were estimated on the basis of the five-year growth
rate for the number of acres devoted to industrial land in each of the ten
Superdistricts. These new source emissions were calculated for each process
category by multiplying the total emissions in each Superdistrict by the
industrial land use growth factor (AAREA..) described above. This rather
intricate procedure had the effect of apportioning the estimated growth in
industrial emissions between existing (in situ) sources and the construction
of plants at new sites. Therefore, this application illustrates the Order 3
allocation of industrial emissions but relies on an estimate of growth at
new sites, which is characteristic of the Order 2 procedure.
Two problems worth mentioning were encountered in the application of
this procedure. In the first place it was necessary to assume that the point
source emissions for any given forecast year could not be less than the base-
line year emissions for that source. In the special case(s) where projected
emissions at existing sources were smaller than the 1970 emissions for a given
source(s) (due to the subtraction of new source emissions that were larger than
the total projected emission for that year), the 1970 baseline year emissions,
instead of estimated new source emissions, were subtracted from the total fore-
casted emissions. Projected emissions for an existing point source were
thereby constrained so that they were at least equal to that point source's
emissions for the baseline year. In the second instance where an industrial
land use change factor (AAREA^ was negative for a given Superdistrict, zeros
were entered for new source growth and all of the total emissions were allocated
to existing sources.
162
-------
Tables 3.4-4 and 3.4-8 respectively summarize the 1985 industrial
process and industrial fuel combustion emissions allocated to the various
Superdistrict subareas.
163
-------
Table 3.4-4
Industrial Point and New Source Process
Emissions - Subarea Summary
A. cc^ty _ FULTON __
B. Subarra _S.IJM.M5B Y "
C. Year _^_ 1
n. Allociitias OrJor
J>-^ _
10
II
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
COUNTY TOTAL
r\
V^'of
4
10
8
5
2
7
J
1
0
0
48
i
!MP
l!VI SO
(4)
2114
JMJ95
9681
35
O
1056
577
2
0
0
24700
M INI
I"))
491
109
312
75
14
56
363
0
0
0
1422
S ,!0\S
so
1525
2087
1247
27
2
710
22
0
0
0
5720
neat
'ra
(9)
IMP
SIT,
(1CJ
p\n
0
0
2115
1
0
60
321
0
0
0
2489
snimrr
NO,
0
0
68
2
2
3
201
0
0
o
274
mrssro
IK)
0
0
272
1
0
40
12
0
0
0
325
-;s
(U)
IiT c
ma
(15)
IMP
(16)
PAH
2114
II 195
11796
36
2
1116
898
?
0
0
7189
•K,
491
109
380
77
16
59
564
0
0
0
696
:,,,,.
1625
2087
1519
?R
2
750
34
o
0
o
6045
f!9j
(Z(i)
^ c
-------
A. tour.ty FULTON
B Suh n-c.iSUMMA'ri'"
C. 'ICMI " "" _~i$"8§"L~LHI
I' AJln Order 2-3
Table 3.4-8
Industrial Point and New Source Fuel
Combustion Emissions - Subarea Summary
'4.KMU.A
ID
10
1 1
12
13
14
15
k- IG
17
18
19
COUNTY TOTAL
...
so or
c,' Mi;ii.s
1
2
1
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
7
r
&
'I VI SI
i4 i
i',1 n
3:28
13
2859
ii
0
0
23
0
0
0
5134
I'1 1 INI
U. 1
48-1
IOO
268
345
0
0
291
0
0
0
I486
s ,10,SS
; M
^'
1534
46
837
2
0
0
3
0
0
0
1:422
" 17, -[
lra
1
(XI
hr a
Ki-
\nv
W.v,
0
0
625
0
0
0
. 12
0
0
0
637
suHwi
W
0
0
59
14
0
0
16?.
0
0
0
235
M 1 \s I ( i
y/1
0
0
183
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
184
l^a
fl4)
fna
^
K
1^
3528
13
3484
II
^
V/
0
35
0
0
0
7071
MAI I, MI
w-;1
484
100
327
359
0
0
453
0
0
0
1723
,!•>'.'
( !•"!
'*>*
1534
46
!020
2
0
0
4
0
0
0
2606
! ._ __ .-.- -
7^'a
r Jo u
U"*
i
'
These pollutants have been excluded from this analysis as they will be treated on an AQCR basis.
-------
A.2.5 Solid Waste Incineration Emissions
Emissions generated from the incineration of solid waste were allo-
cated to subcounty areas using an Order 2 analysis. This Level of detail was
selected because the survey of local solid waste officials needed for an
Order 3 analysis could not be undertaken as part of the Fulton County test
case. Furthermore, the intensive study prescribed in Projecting County
Emissions: Volume 7 of the Guidelines was not carried out. Estimates of the
countywide solid waste incineration were instead taken directly from the
Atlanta Air Pollutant Emission Inventory (October, 1969) and entered in Table
3.5-2 as described in the procedural instructions. In view of the fact that
residential solid waste incineration was not considered in this Inventory, it
has also been deleted from this analysis. This exclusion should not, however,
create undue concern as residential refuse incineration is generally considered
to account for only a very small portion of the emissions from open burning.
In short, it can be said that the allocation results obtained from this
analysis are as representative of the actual situation in Fulton County as
could be expected without projecting solid waste incineration Levels, using
the procedures described in Volume 7 of the Guidelines.
All of the fundamental work involved in manipulating the demographic
and land use variables used to project solid waste emissions has already been
carried out for the analyses of other emission sources. Residential inciner-
ation has been deleted so that the population allocations (developed for the
analysis of transportation emissions) were not needed. The commercial/insti-
tutional establishments and industrial point sources have already been treated
according to ARC Superdistricts that are compatible. Therefore, the commercial/
institutional and industrial land use allocation proportions derived from the
assumptions, specified in Sections A.2.3 and A.2.4 of this appendix, have been
directly applied to this analysis of solid waste incineration emissions. One
minor adaptation was necessary, however. To make the commercial/institutional
and industrial subarea designations completely compatible, Superdistricts 16,
18 and 19, which were treated separately for industrial sources, have been
aggregated and treated as the Residual for this analysis.
The following 3.5-4 Table illustrates the allocated refuse incinera-
tion emissions for 1980.
166
-------
Table 3.5-4
Solid Waste Incineration Emissions
Allocated to Subcounty Areas
Fulton
A. County
B. Year
C. Allocation Order
1980
(1)
Sub-areas
10 - CBD
11 - Northeast
12 - Northwest
13 . Southeast
14 - Southwest
15 - Tri-Cities
17 - Buckhead
SU3ASEA. TOTAL
Residual
D. COUNTY TOTAL
missions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
529
966
1,985
1,286
1,179
991
30 S
7,244
1,130
8,374
(3)
S0x
78
104
175
116
105
92
58
"G8
100
8CS
(4)
CO
208
193
199
143
125
124
82
1,074
119
1,193
(5]
a
HC
(6)
NO^
aThese pollutants have been excluder from this analysis as they will
be treated on an AQCR basis. 16y
-------
A. 3 MASTER GRIDDING
To this point emissions from the five types of sources have been allo-
cated to essentially two types of subarea sets. Residential fuel combustion
and transportation emissions have been allocated to municipalities and a
Residual. Industrial emissions have been allocated to ARC Superdistricts and
a Residual was not necessary; and commercial/institutional fuel combustion
and solid waste incineration emissions were allocated to ARC Superdistricts
and a Residual. While there is no conceptual problem with treating these
different subarea sets separately for dispersion modeling purposes, the
overlap between the subareas presents a rather confusing picture as to
where emission control strategies should be implemented. Therefore, we have
followed our previous recommendation and developed a single master grid
network so that the emissions from all of the previous analyses could be
totaled for each cell in the square-gridded matrix.
Fulton County was subdivided into 123 cells using a two-stage
gridding procedure applied to census tract maps of the Atlanta Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) on which the ARC Superdistrict boundaries
were indicated. The resulting grid system is shown in Figures A.I and A.2.
Figure A.I represents the master census tract map and Figure A.2 is a blow-up
of the census tracts for "INSERT A" specified in Figure A.I. Since two maps
were needed to show the resolution of census tracts in and around Atlanta, one
grid network had to be drawn on the larger-scale map and another grid had to
be drawn on the smaller-scale map. This accounts for the two-stage operation
mentioned above.
The master grid system was developed in the following way. First,
clear Mylar plastic was overlayed on both of the maps and identical Universal
Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates were marked on each overlay. For example,
UTM coordinate 37 — 7 can be seen on both maps and designates an interface
between them. Next, the scales of gridding resolution were decided upon and
the cell networks were drawn on both maps. Since outlying areas have com-
paratively low population densities and concentrations of emission generating
activity, 8 km x 8 km grid squares were chosen. These larger grid cells are
evident in Figure A.I and they cover the three Superdistricts surrounding
Atlanta (e.g., 16, South Fulton; 18, Sandy Springs; and 19, North Fulton). The
8 km x 8 km grid cells do not apply to "INSERT A," but was also gridded with
the uniform cells to avoid confusion in drawing the complete matrix on the
168
-------
I7 725 733 74I 749 757 765 773
,90
37
37
BOUNDARY SYMBOLS
CENSUS TRACT BOUNDARIES
COUNTY
CORPORATE LIMIT
CENSUS TRACT DIVISION
SUPER DISTRICT
KILOMETERS
Figure A.I I-laster Grid Overlay
-------
BOUNDARY SYMBOLS
CENSUS TRACT BOUNDARIES
COUNTY
• CORPORATE LIMIT
CENSUS TRACT DIVISION
— SUPER DISTRICT
NORTHEAST
-CBD
01234
I I I I I
KILOMETERS
Figure A.2 Master Grid Overlay: Insert
170
-------
master census tract. Figure A.2 shows that varying degrees of resolution
in gridding were chosen for the seven Superdistricts in, and contiguous to,
Atlanta. In the course of generating the cell matrix for Figure A.2 the map
was originally divided into 8 km squares that were continually subdivided
until the desired resolution was obtained. Hie Atlanta CBD was subdivided
into the smallest cells (1 km square) and the areas of lesser concentrated
activity around the CBD were divided into 2 km squares. Hie lower density,
western and northwestern parts of Atlanta were divided into 4 km squares
and the northeastern portion was divided into two 8 km squares.
After completing this gridding procedure on the census tract/Super-
district maps the identical grid network was applied to a Fulton County map
with municipalities indicated on it. In this way the subareas treated in
the analyses of residential fuel combustion and transportation emissions
were distributed to the appropriate cells of the grid network.
The final step of the master gridding procedure involved estimating
portions of the various subcounty areas located in each of the master grid
cells. To insure accuracy this apportioning was done with a planimeter and
the fractional estimates for each subarea set were recorded in the 4.1 Tables.
Examples of these 4.1 Tables for the residential fuel combustion-transportation
and commercial/institutional-industrial-solid waste subarea sets are provided
below.
Although the 123 cell network involved a considerable amount of effort
in gridding and apportioning the various subareas, we feel that it provides
optimal resolution for modeling air quality from the allocated emissions for
Fulton County. This grid system is neither more refined than the original
data sets would permit nor so gross that it destroys resolution achieved
by the separate analyses.
171
-------
Table 4-1
Master Grid Mapping
A. County Fulton
B- S^^nry Area Set
Transportation
(1)
Master Grid
Designation
3736 _ 733
3736 755
3736 _ 737
3737 - 739
5737 _ 740
3736 _ ^59
--36 _ -40
5-56 - 741
--36 ,47
.5 / - /
3-34 - 739
5734 - 741
5-34 _ _45
--34 ~45
•-' ' ~ /
--54 757
--32 _39
-^ ' /
(2)
Subcounty Area
Designation
Atlanta
i
'
i
1
i
!
|
1
1
i
1
(3)
Fraction of Subcounty
Area -in Master Grid
.013
.013
.013
.003
.003
.003
.003
.003
.003
,013
..013
.013
.005
.013
.009
-------
Table 4.1
Master Grid Mapping
A. County Fulton . .
B. Subcounty Area Set Conmercial/Institutional-Industrial-Solid waste
(1)
Master Grid
Designation
3738 - 741
3739 - 741
3736 . ,39
3?36 . ?40
3736 . .41
3736 . ?42
3?36 . .43
3?56 . ?45
3734 - 739
3?34 . ,41
3?34 . ,43
.,.,34 -45
j/ - /
,-34 _57
o/ - 7
--32 _37
3/ - /
,,32 -59
o/ - /
(2)
Subcounty Area
Designation
12-NW
12-NW
13-SE
i
(3)
Fraction of Subcounty
Area- in Master Grid
.004
.001
.002
.010
.015
.015
.030
.012
.035
.061
.061
.024
.002
.012
.061
173
-------
A.4 Master Grid Emissions
This last section of Appendix A briefly illustrates some of the final
results from the Fulton County test case. Also described is an additional tech-
nique not treated in the text of Volume 13. This technique involves generating
a table that shows how total emissions for each pollutant are distributed among
the five sources in each grid square.
The 4.2 Tables included below show the final allocated emissions for
grid squares 46 through 75 for each of the four years under study (1970, 1975,
1980 and 1985). These summary pages of the test case were selected for presen-
tation because, as will be seen later, total 1970 emissions were disaggregated
by source for grid squares 58, 59, 67 and 68. Therefore, the 4.2 Tables pro-
vide a reference for these grids and also show emission projection results for
a range of grids in Fulton County. By following through the 4.2 Tables for a
given grid square, one can see that the pollutant-specific emissions are, for
the most part, growing between the five-year intervals. The major deficiency
in simply inspecting the 4.2 Tables, however, is that the user cannot determine
what sources account for major portions of the total emissions for each pollutant.
In other words, the 4.2 Tables do not directly address the basic issue behind
Air Quality Maintenance Planning; what emission control strategies should be
implemented in a particular area (e.g., grid square)?
To overcome this deficiency, a closer examination of grid squares with
high emission concentrations that signify specific air quality problems is
strongly recommended. Total emissions tabulated in the 4.2 Tables should
be disaggregated by source. A disaggregation of 1970 emissions is shown in
Table A.4 for grids 58, 59, 67 and 68. These grids were selected for this
demonstration because they are all 4-square-km cells and near the Atlanta CBD.
While these four grids do not have the highest emission rates in Fulton County,
they were selected as representative of the 2 km x 2 km squares that were
developed for most of the county.
From Table A.4 it is readily evident that transportation accounts for
the heavy concentrations of CO emissions in the four areas near the Atlanta
CBD. In each case, automotive vehicles account for over 991 of an average CO
level of 1713 tons/yr. Hence, a transportation plan designed to reduce VMT
would be an appropriate strategy for lowering CO emissions in these areas.
174
-------
Table 4.2
Kbster Grid Emissions
A. County Fulton
B. Year
CD
.Vfester Grid
Designation
46. 3730- 743
-* r\ * r
4'. 37°° - T*
43. 37^2 - 72j
49. 3752- 727
50. 3752 - 731
51. 37^- 7-
52. 373Z - 737
53. 3752 - 739
5^. 373Z- 7^
55. 37 w - 7-3
., T732 . 745
00. -'/ '
5-. 3734 - 7°°
-c 37^ - 7J'
brf O •
5?. 3734 - 7j9
6C. S734- r1
Emissions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
90.1
37.9
6.2
146.2
184.3
46.0
46.5
87.1
90.1
90.1
37.9
47.8
49.3
67.4
90.1
(3)
^x
15.7
11.5
2.9
24.0
36.6
7.9
5.4
14.0
15.7
15.7
6.4
9.8
10.0
12.6
15.7
(4)
CO
1718.3
661.4
296.8
2476.5
5865.2
5.0
5.S
1192.3
1718.5
1713.5
661.4
1711.9
1712.2
1715.1
1713.5
(5)
HC a
(6)a
^
aThese pollutants have been excluded from this analysis as they will be treated
on an AQCR basis.
175
-------
A. (bunty Fulton
B. Year 1970
Table 4.2
tester Grid Emissions
(1)
faster Grid
Designation
61. 37j4 - 74J
62. 37°4 - 74D
65. 37°6 - 72J
64. 37jb - 727
63. 37 ^> - 7jl
65. 37°° - 7JO
6'. 37 j6 - 7JD
65. 57j6 - 73/
69. 37°6 - 7°9
-Q 37JO - 7*0
w *
71 37J6 . 741
-;. 37j6 - 742
-3. 5736 - 74^
-4. 37°6 - 745
73. 37° ' - 7°9
Bnissions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
90.1
35.3
23.5
270.3
47.8
121.1
159.9
132.2
14.3
18.5
22.0
22.0
651.2
1S4.1
50.5
(3)
^x
15.7
6.1
3.0
43.5
9.8
21.1
28.3
23.9
2.7
3.4
3.8
3.8
162.8
31.4
8.7
(4)
CO
1718.3
661.0
48.4
2325.3
1711.9
1712.9
1713.6
1713.2
395.5
396.2
396.7
396.7
2203.5
847.1
395.9
<5) a
HC
^
These pollutants have been excluded from this analysis as they will be treated on
an AQCR basis.
176
-------
A. Cbunty Fulton
B. Year 1975
Table 4.2
Jtester Grid Bnissions
(1)
faster Grid
Designation
46. 3730. ?43
47 37 30- 745
49. 3732- 7^7
50. 57 32- 731
-7 32 _ 7 35
51. °7 ' •
52. 37 32- 7 37
55. 5732- 739
51. 3732- 741
56. V 52- 7 45
57 _ 37 54- 7 55
55. 37 "_ 7^'
59. 37 34- 739
60. 37^- 7^
Emissions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
89.5
37.8
7.8
154.3
191.7
49.7
48.3
86.7
89.5
89.5
37.8
49.4
51.0
67.5
89.5
(3)
^x
15.9
6.6
4.3
26.3
38.0
9.2
5.9
14.3
15.9
15.9
6.6
10.1
10.3
12.9
15.9
C4)
CO
1016.9
391.6
307.1
1567.3
3492.2
5.5
6.3
707.6
1016.9
1016.9
391.6
1010.1
1010.4
1013.5
1016.9
&
(6)a
NDva
^v
^These pollutants
an AQCR basis.
have been excluded from this analysis as they will be treated on
177
-------
Table 4.2
Jfester Grid Bnissions
A. County Fulton
B- Year 1975.
(1)
tester Grid
Designation
(51. 37 J4- 74°
,- 54 _ 45
62. 3/ - 7
-- 36 7 25
63. *' ~ 7
~- 56 - 27
64. :>/ - 7
,_ 56 _ 51
65. ->' - 7
66. 57 56- 7 35
67_ 37 56- 7 35
68. 37 36. 7 37
69. " J°- ^ J9
70. 37°5- 74°
71 37 36. 7 41
7? 37 56- 7 42
_,_ 37 56- 7 43
7o.
74. 37 56- 7 a5
75. 57 5?- 7 39
Emissions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
89.5
35.1
25.1
303.4
49.4
138.9
186.0
152.0
14.9
18.7
21.8
21.8
720.0
208.8
59.1
(3)
^x
15.9
6.2
3.4
49.1
10.1
24.7
52.0
26.7
2.8
3.4
5.9
3.9
'195.0
53.1
9.9
(4)
CO
1016.9
391.2
50.2
1469.8
1010.1
1011.2
1012.0
1011.3
233.6
234.3
234.9
234.9
1550.5
599.9
234.0
(5)a
HC
^a
>°x
These pollutants
on an AQCR basis
have been excluded from this analysis as they will be treated
178
-------
A. County Fulton
B. Year 1930
Table 4.2
Mister Grid Emissions
(1)
Niaster Grid
Designation
4fS 3750- y45
4-. 37 30- 7^
48. 37 32- 723
49. 37 32- 727
30. 37 32- 751
31. 57 32- 735
52. 37 32- 737
33. 37 32- 739
3-. 37 32- 7^1
55. 37 32- 743
•77 32 _ 7 45
DC. $f 1
5-. 37 34- 7 55
55. 57 J4- 7 J/
5^. 37 34- 759
~:. 37 54- 741
Emissions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
91.2
38.5
8.7
165.1
203.1
54.1
51.0
88.5
91.2
91.2
38.5
52.2
55.7
69.3
91.2
(3)
^x
16.5
6.8
5.2
28.1
39.4
10.6
6.3
14.9
16.5
16.5
6.8
10. 5
10.7
13.2
16.5
(4)
CO
430.0
163.9
160.3
687.2
1471.1
5.9
6.3
301.5
430.0
430.0
165.9
422.9
423.1
426.4
430.0
t5)a
HC
(6)a
^
These pollutants have been excluded from this analysis as they will be treated
on an AQCR basis.
179
-------
A. Cbunty Fulton
B. Year 10gp
Table 4.2
Jfester Grid Bnissions
(13
Vaster Grid
Designation
51. 37 34- 745
62. 37 34- 745
63. 37 36- 723
64. 57 56- 727
55. 37 56- 7o1
re. 37 °°- 7OJ
r7. 57 j6- 7^
6S. 37^. 7J-
69- 37 *>- 7j5
70. 37 °°- 7 4°
71. 37 j6- 7 41
72. 37 °6- 7 4Z
73. 57 °°- 7 4o
74. 37 °6- 7 4D
75. 37 °7- 7 j9
Emissions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
91.2
55.8
27.0
545.7
52.2
162.2
219.6
178.1
15.5
19.2
22.4
22.4
S56.5
243.5
70.5
(3)
^x
16.5
6.4
5.7
55.5
10.5
23.0
37.1
50.5
2.9
3.6
4.0
4.0
258.0
44.2
11.6
(4)
CO
430.0
165.6
27.9
646.6
422.9
424.0
425.0
424.4
98.1
98.1
99.5
99.5
1078.7
254.5
98.6
(5)a
HC a
C6)a
»°x
aThese pollutants have been excluded from this analysis as they will be treated
on an AQCR basis.
180
-------
A. County Fulton
B. Year " 1935
Table 4.2
tester Grid Emissions
(13
NSaster Grid
Designation
46. 57^- 74J
4-. 57J°- 74°
43. 37J2- 723
4;. 5^j2- r!
30- 3-^- 751
51. 37J- - 7JJ
5:. 3?J- - 7°'
53. 37 j2 - 7°9
54. 37Ji - 7Hi
~ ,-'32 ^75
33. Ji ~ 1
1-. 37jZ - 743
5~. 37J" - 7JD
53. 37°4 - 7J/
5?. 37 °4- 7°9
t.\ 37°4- 741
Emissions
(tons/yr)
(2)
Part.
94.1
39.7
11.5
181.5
220,2
59.9
55,2
91.4
94.1
94.1
39.7
46.4
57.9
63.4
94,1
(3)
^x
17.1
7.1
7.5
32.:
42.6
12.1
6.9
15.4
17.1
17.1
7.1
11.1
11.4
14.0
17.1
(4)
CO
286. 0
110.6
180.7
515.2
986.5
7.1
7.5
202.2
286.0
286.0
110.6
278.1
278.4
281.9
236.0
(5)
HCa
(6)a
MD/
These pollutants have been excluded from this analysis
on an AOCR basis.
as they will be treated
181
-------
A. County Fulton
B. Year 1935
Table 4.2
fkster Grid Bnissions
(1)
?iaster Grid
Designation
61, 3734 - T45
62. 3734 - T45
63. 3T36 - T25
64. 3^36 - T27
65. 3-36 - 731
66. 3736 - T33
67. 5?20 - T53
63. 37°° - ?'
69. 5^c - 7>9
70. 3-"° - T40
71. 3-JO - 741
72. 5>= - 7^-
73. 37-° - 740
74. 37^° - 74°
75. s;3" - T39
Emissions
(tons/yr)
C2)
Part.
94.1
36.9
29.9
396.2
56.4
137.9
256.4
206.-
16.7
20.0
23,0
23.0
1013.5
5C6.6
S2.5
(3)
^x
17.1
6.7
4.5
65.3
11.1
32.4
43.5
55.5
3.1
3.7
4.2
4.2
287.5
57.6
13.7
(4)
CO
286.0
110.1
31.4
4S4.7
278.1
279.5
280.4
279.8
64.7
65.5
66.2
66.2
1047.9
406.4
65.2
(5)a
Hc:a
(6)a
NO/
Tliese pollutants have
an AQCR basis.
been excluded from this analysis as they will be treated on
182
-------
Table A. 4
1970 Pollutant Specific Emissions for Individual Grids
Disaggregated by Source:
Fulton County, Georgia
Master Grid
Designation Source
34 37
58 37-7
Residential
Tr anspor tat ion
Commer./Inst.
Industrial
Solid Waste
59 3734-739
Residential
Transportation
Commer./Inst.
Industrial
Solid Waste
67 37 -7
Residential
Transportation
Commer./Inst.
Industrial
Solid Waste
68 3736-737
Residential
Transportation
Commer./Inst.
Industrial
Solid Waste
Part.
Tons/yr \
49.3 100.0
2.0 4.1
7.7 15.6
0.7 1.4
0.1 0.2
38.8 78.7
67.4 100.0
2.0 3.0
7.7 11.4
1.0 1.5
0.8 1.2
55.9 82.9
159.9 100.0
2.0 1.3
7.7 4.8
1.0 0.6
97.5 61.0
51.7 32.3
132.2 100.0
2.0 1.5
7.7 5.8
0.8 0.6
73.3 55.5
48.4 36.6
S02
Tons/yr \
10.0 100.0
2.5 25.0
3.0 30.0
1.0 10.0
0.1 1.0
3.4 34.0
12.6 100.0
2.5 19.8
3.0 23.8
1.2 9.5
0.7 5.6
5.2 41.3
28.3 100.0
2.5 8.8
3.0 10.6
1.3 4.6
17.1 60.4
4.4 15.6
23.9 100.0
2.5 10.5
3.0 12.5
1.3 5.4
12.9 54.0
4.2 17.6
CO
Tons/yr %
1712.2 100.0
1.6 0.1
1705.6 99.6
0.6 0.1
0.2 0.0
4.0 0.2
1715.1 100.0
1.6 0.1
1705.8 99.5
0.8 0.0
1.0 0.1
5.9 0.3
1713.6 100.0
1.6 0.1
1705.6 99.5
0.8 0.1
0.3 0.0
5.1 0.3
1713.2 100.0
1.6 0.1
1705.6 99.6
0.7 0.0
0.3 0.0
4.8 0.3
HCa
Tons/yr %
NOXa
Tons/yr %
rhese pollutants have been excluded from this analysis as they will be treated on an AQCR basis.
-------
Particulates are the second major emission problem in grids 58, 59,
67 and 68. Unlike CO emissions, however, the particulate emissions are
attributable to more than one source. In grids 67 and 68 the particulate
problem has been traced to industrial, solid waste incineration, and trans-
portation, in that order. On the average these sources respectively account
for 58%, 34% and 8% of the particulate emissions. Therefore, an adequate
Air Quality Maintenance Plan would have to be aimed at all three of these
sources in grids 67 and 68. Similarly, in grids 58 and 59 the particulate
problem can be traced to solid waste incineration and transportation sources
that respectively account for 81% and 8% of the particulate emissions. An
effective particulate maintenance plan would therefore have to address both
of these sources in grids 58 and 59.
The technique illustrated in Table A.4 has not been included in the
procedures detailed in Volume 13 of the Guidelines because it involves a sub-
stantial effort that may not be warranted or necessary for all grid cells of
an AQCR county under study. However, where large concentrations of total
emissions are evident for a specific pollutant, it is strongly recommended
that the user trace the cause of these emissions back to their most signifi-
cant sources. Only by going through the process of obtaining results such as
those illustrated in Table A.4 can Air Quality Maintenance Plans be keyed
directly to specific sources of emissions.
184
-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1 REPORT NO
EPA-TAG-DA-0463
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
4 TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Guidelines for Air Quality Maintenance Planning and
Analysis, Volume 13: Allocating Projected Emissions
to Subcounty Areas
5 REPORT DATE
November 1974
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7 AUTHOR(S)
T. E. Baldwin, R. R. Cirillo, A. S. Kennedy and
S. J. LaBelle
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Energy and Environmental Systems Division
Argonne National Laboratory
9700 S. Cass Avenue
Argonne, Illinois 60439
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
2AC129
11 CONTRACT/GRANT NO
EPA-IAG-D4-0463
Project No. 3
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
TJ. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air and Waste Management
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, N.C. 27711
13. TYPE OF RE PORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
Part of a 13 volume series.
16. ABSTRACT
This document describes a methodology for projecting and allocating pollutant-
specific emissions to areas that are smaller than counties. Three Orders of
analysis requiring successively more detailed data and more extensive levels of
effort are treated. The techniques advanced rely upon the development of demographic
and economic projections that are used as surrogates to forecast source-specific
emissions resulting from residential fuel combustion, transportation, commercial and
institutional fuel combustion, industrial processing and fuel combustion, and solid
waste incineration. Procedures for allocating emissions to large subcounty areas
(e.g., municipalities, townships, census tracts and/or regional planning activities,
etc.) are treated first. Total emissions from each source are then apportioned to
square cells in a master grid system. Emissions allocated to these cells in a
master grid system are the final .output of this technique and can be used as input
for the purpose of modeling air quality.
Appendices A and B illustrate a test of these procedures applied to Fulton County
(Atlanta), Georgia. The results of this test case demonstrates that the Order 3
procedures yield the most refined estimates of emissions allocated to subcounty areas
and prospective users are encouraged to employ these procedures wherever the avail-
ability of detailed data and manpower resources permit.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
c. COSATI Field/Group
Emissions Forecasting and Allocation to
Subcounty Areas
Improving Local Emission Inventories for
Air Quality Maintenance Planning
Air Quality Maintenance
Plans,
Emission Inventories,
Forecasting Emissions,
Subcounty Emissions
Allocation Techniques
13-B
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Unlimited
19 SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
Unclassified
20 SECURITY CLASS (This page)
Unclassified
21 NO. OF PAGES
197
22 PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
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