vvEPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
EPA-450/4-82-012
September 1982
Air
National
Air Pollutant
Emission Estimates,
1970-1981
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EPA-450/4-82-012
National Air Pollutant
Emission Estimates, 1970-1981
Monitoring and Data Analysis Division
U.S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air, Noise and Radiation
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
September 1982
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This report is published by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency to report information of general interest in the field
of air pollution. Copies are available free of charge to Federal employees, current contrators and grantees, and nonprofit
organizations - as supplies permit - from the Library Services Office (MD-35), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711; or, for a fee, from the National Technical Information Services, 5285 Port
Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
Publication No. EPA-450/4-82-012
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CONTENTS
Section Page
LIST OF TABLES vii
1.SUMMARY 1
2.NATIONWIDE EMISSION TRENDS, 1970-1981 3
2.1 Particulates 3
2.2 Sulfur Oxides 3
2.3 Nitrogen Oxides 4
2.4 Volatile Organic Compounds 4
2.5 Carbon Monoxide 4
3.METHODS 21
3.1 Transportation 22
3.1.1 Motor Vehicles 22
3.1.2 Aircraft 22
3.1.3 Railroads 23
3.1.4 Vessels 23
3.1.5 Nonhighway Use of Motor Fuels 23
3.2 Fuel Combustion in Stationary Sources 23
3.2.1 Coal 23
3.2.2 Fuel Oil 23
3.2.3 Natural Gas 24
3.2.4 Other Fuels 24
3.3 Industrial Processes 24
3.4 Solid Waste Disposal 24
3.5 Miscellaneous Sources 25
3.5.1 Forest Fires 25
3.5.2 Agricultural Burning 25
3.5.3 Coal Refuse Burning 25
3.5.4 Structural Fires 25
3.5.5 Nonindustrial Organic Solvent Use 26
111
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ABSTRACT
This report presents estimates of trends in nationwide air
pollutant emissions for the five major pollutants: particul ates,
sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and
carbon monoxide. Estimates are presented for each year from 1970
through 1981. Emission estimates are broken down according to
major classifications of air pollution sources. A short analysis
of trends is given, along with a discussion of methods used to
develop the data.
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CONTENTS (continued)
Page
4.ANALYSIS OF TRENDS 27
4.1 Participates 27
4.2 Sulfur Oxides 30
4.3 Nitrogen Oxides 31
4.4 Volatile Organic Compounds 31
4.5 Carbon Monoxide 32
5.REFERENCES 34
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA AND ABSTRACT 36
vi
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LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1. Summary of National Emission Estimates 2
2. National Estimates of Participate Emissions, 1970-1981 5
3. National Estimates of Sulfur Oxide Emissions, 1970-1981 6
4. National Estimates of Nitrogen Oxide Emissions, 1970-1981 7
5. National Estimates of Volatile Organic Compound Emissions,
1970-1981 8
6. National Estimates of Carbon Monoxide Emissions, 1970-1981 9
7. Nitrogen Oxide Emissions from Highway Vehicles 10
8. Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Highway Vehicles 11
9. Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Highway Vehicles 12
10. Particulate Emissions from Fuel Combustion 13
11. Sulfur Oxide Emissions from Fuel Combustion 14
12. Nitrogen Oxide Emissions from Fuel Combustion 15
13. Particulate Emissions from Industrial Processes 16
14. Sulfur Oxide Emissions from Industrial Processes 17
15. Nitrogen Oxide Emissions from Industrial Processes 18
16. Volatile Organic Compound Emissions from Industrial Processes ... 19
17. Carbon Monoxide Emissions from Industrial Processes 20
18. Theoretical 1981 National Emission Estimates with 1970 Level of
Control 28
VII
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NATIONAL AIR POLLUTANT EMISSION ESTIMATES
1970-1981
1. SUMMARY
The primary objectives of this publication are to provide current
estimates of nationwide emissions of five major pollutants: particu-
late matter (PM), sulfur oxides (S02), nitrogen oxides (NOX),
volatile organic compounds (VOC), and carbon monoxide (CO). Estimates
are presented for 1970 through 1981 as an indication of recent trends.
These data entirely replace those published earler for 1970-1980 in
EPA report National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940-1980
(EPA-450/4-82-001) and for 1970-1979 in National Air Pollutant
Emission Estimates, 1970-1979 (EPA-450/4-81- 010). Because of
modifications in methodology and use of more refined emission factors,
data from this report should not be compared with data in these
earlier reports.
Reporting of emissions on a nationwide basis, while useful as a
general indicator of pollutant levels, has definite limitations.
National totals or averages are not the best guide for estimating
trends for particular localities. Yet, it is important that some
criteria be established for measurement of national progress in the
control of air pollutant emissions. The emission estimates presented
herein represent calculated estimates based on standard emission
inventory procedures. Since these data are estimates only and do not
represent the results of any program for the measurement of actual
emissions, their accuracy is somewhat limited. Similarly, it would
not necessarily be expected that these emission estimates would be in
agreement with emission estimates derived through a different emission
inventory procedure. The principal objective of compiling these data
is to identify probable overall changes in emissions on a national
scale. It should be recognized that these estimated national trends
in emissions may not be representative of local trends in emissions or
air quality.
The emission estimates presented in this report are based on the
most currently available EPA air pollutant emission factors and
published data for fuel consumption, industrial production and other
indicators of source activity levels. Published data for 1970-1980
were available in final form. In many instances, 1981 data were
available only as preliminary estimates when this report was prepared.
As a result, 1981 emission estimates presented in this report should
be regarded as preliminary estimates to be revised in a future edition
of this report.
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2. NATIONWIDE EMISSION TRENDS, 1970-1981
Table 1 gives a summary of total national emission estimates*for
1970-1981. Tables 2 through 6 present summaries for each year
according to the five major categories of sources: transportation,
stationary source fuel combustion, industrial processes, solid waste
disposal, and miscellaneous sources. More detailed breakdowns of
emissions are given in Tables 7 through 9 for highway vehicles, Tables
10 through 12 for stationary source fuel combustion, and in Tables 13
through 17 for industrial processes.
In the industrial process tables the Standard Industrial Classifica-
tion (SIC) in which the process is included is shown. These designa-
tions are not intended to represent the complete emissions for all SIC
categories and serve only to identify and classify the industrial
process shown.
In all tables data are reported in metric units, either as teragrams
(10 grams) or gigagrams (10 grams) per year. One teragram equals
approximately 1.1 x 10 short tons and one gigagram equals approxi-
mately 1.1 x 10 short tons.
2.1 Particulates
Particulate emissions result primarily from industrial processes and
from fuel combustion in stationary sources. Since 1970, emissions
from these sources have been reduced substantially by the installation
of air pollution control equipment. In addition, particulate emis-
sions decreased because of less burning of solid waste.
2.2 Sulfur Oxides
Sulfur oxide emissions occur largely from fuel combustion in
stationary sources, with electric utilities being the largest
individual source sector. From 1970 through 1976 electric utility
emissions generally increased as the result of increased burning of
fossil fuels to meet growing demands for electricity. Since 1976,
electric utility emissions have decreased slightly, reflecting the
installation of flue gas desulfurization controls at coal-fired
electric generating stations and a reduction in the average sulfur
content of fuels consumed. Emissions from other stationary source
fuel combustion sectors also declined, mainly due to decreased
combustion of coal by these consumers. Sulfur oxide emissions from
industrial processes are also significant. Emissions from industrial
processes have declined, primarily as the result of controls
implemented to reduce emissions from nonferrous smelters and sulfuric
acid manufacturing plants.
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2.3 Nitrogen Oxides
Emissions of nitrogen oxides are produced almost entirely from fuel
combustion by stationary sources and transportation sources. Emis-
sions from transportation sources increased through 1978 as the result
of increased motor vehicle travel. Since then, emissions have
declined slightly as the result of Federal motor vehicle controls and
the lack of significant additional growth in vehicle-miles of travel.
Overall emissions from stationary source fuel combustion have
increased slightly. Electric utility emissions have increased,
reflecting increased use of fossil fuels, while industrial emissions
decreased slightly as the result of a drop in fuel combustion by
industrial sources. Emissions from residential and commerci al /insti-
tutional sources have remained about the same.
2.4 Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)
VOC emissions have decreased primarily due to the Federal motor
vehicle control program for highway vehicles. In addition, emissions
from solid waste disposal decreased due to less burning of solid waste
and miscellaneous source emissions also decreased due to the substitu-
tion of water-based emulsified asphalt paving materials for those
liquefied with petroleum distillates. Industrial process emissions
have fluctuated according to economic conditions. Generally,
industrial process emissions have increased, partially offsetting
emission reductions in other source categories. However, due to the
poor economic conditions prevalent in 1980 and 1981, process emissions
have declined to a level comparable to 1970 emissions.
2.5 Carbon Monoxide
Carbon monoxide emissions occur largely from transportation sources.
Emissions from highway vehicles peaked in 1972 and have declined sub-
sequently due to the Federal motor vehicle control program. Indus-
trial process emissions have also declined, mainly in the carbon black
(obsolescence of the channel process), petroleum refining (increased
use of CO boilers on catalytic cracking unit catalyst regenerators)
and iron and steel (decreased production levels and increased air
pollution control) industries. Emissions from the burning of solid
waste and agricultural refuse have also declined substantially.
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3. METHODS
The generation of an emission inventory involves many steps to
achieve the desired result, which is to estimate the amount of
emissions for selected pollutants in a defined geographical area.
Ideally, nationwide emission estimates should result from a summation
of county, state, and regional data in which each component is
reported separately. The National Emissions Data System (NEDS) uses
this procedure. The methods used to prepare data for this publication
are as similar as possible to those used for NEDS data preparation.
Since NEDS uses a more detailed procedure involving calculation of
emissions for individual sources and summation of these individual
emission totals to produce national totals, there is a much greater
chance for errors or omissions to occur in the NEDS data. Because of
the basic similarity of techniques, discrepancies between national
totals reported herein and those given in NEDS reports are due largely
to incomplete data reporting and errors in the NEDS data. The quality
of NEDS data over/time has improved so that the differences between
NEDS emission reports for 1977 and later years and national emission
totals determined by the procedure used for this publication are not
as great as in earlier NEDS reports. Moreover, historical NEDS data
are not revised to account for updated emission factors, errors or
omissions in the data. As a result annual NEDS publications do not
necessarily represent a consistent trend in estimated emissions.
Because it is impossible to test every pollutant source indivi-
dually, particularly area sources, an estimating procedure must be
used. In order to do this, however, one must either estimate the
emissions directly or estimate the magnitude of other variables that
can then be related to emissions. These indicators include fuel
consumption, vehicle miles, population, sales, tons of refuse burned,
raw materials processed, etc., which are then multiplied by
appropriate emission factors to obtain emission estimates.
The limitations and applicability of emission factors must be
understood. In general, emission factors are not precise indicators
of emissions from a single source; rather, they are quantitative
estimates of the average rate of pollutant released as a result of
some activity. They are most valid when applied to a large number of
sources and processes. If their limitations are recognized, emission
factors are extremely useful in determining emission levels. A
detailed discussion of emission factors and related information is
contained in Reference 2. The emission factor thus relates quantity
of pollutants emitted to indicators such as those noted above, and is
a practical approach for determining estimates of emissions from
various source categories.
21
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A discussion of trends is meaningful only when there is a common
basis for evaluation. It was necessary, therefore, to quantify
emissions using the same criteria for each year. This meant using the
same estimation techniques, using equal or equivalent data sources,
covering the same pollutant sources, and using compatible estimates of
pollutant control levels from year to year. Estimates for previous
years were updated using current emission factors and including the
most recent information available. The criteria used in calculating
emissions was the same for all years.
The methodology used in generation of emission estimates for
individual source categories follows.
3.1 Transportation
3.1.1 Motor Vehicles
Emission estimates from gasoline-and diesel-powered motor vehicles
were based upon vehicle-mile tabulations and emission factors. Eight
vehicle categories are considered; light duty gasoline (mostly passen-
ger cars), light duty diesel passenger cars, light duty gasoline
trucks (trucks less than 6000 pounds in weight), light duty gasoline
trucks 6000 to 8500 pounds in weight, light duty diesel trucks, heavy
duty gasoline trucks and buses, and heavy duty diesel trucks and
buses, and motorcycles. The emission factors used are based on the
latest available data from Reference 3. The MOBILE 2 model, developed
by the EPA Office of Mobile Source Air Pollution Control was used to
calculate emission factors for each year. The emission factors are
weighted to consider the approximate amount of motor vehicle travel in
low altitude areas, high altitude areas, and California to obtain
overall national average emission factors. For each area a represen-
tative average annual temperature, together with national averages for
motor vehicle model year distributions and hot/cold start vehicle
operation percentages were used to calculate the emission factors.
Average speed is taken into account according to the published
distribution of vehicle-miles travelled (VMT) for urban and rural
roadways. These data are published in Reference 4. For rural VMT,
the average speed is considered to be 45 miles per hour, and for urban
VMT, 19.6 miles per hour.
3.1.2 Aircraft
Aircraft emissions are based on emission factors and aircraft acti-
vity statistics reported by the Federal Aviation Administration.5
Emissions are based on the number of landing-takeoff (LTO) cycles.
Any emissions in cruise mode, which is defined to be above 3000 feet
(1000 meters) are ignored. Average emission factors for each year,
which take into account the national mix of aircraft types for general
aviation, military, and commercial aircraft, are used to compute the
emissions.
-------
3.1.3 Railroads
The Department of Energy reports consumption of diesel fuel and
residual fuel oil by railroads.6 Average emission factors
applicable to diesel fuel consumption were used to calculate emis-
sions. The average sulfur content of each fuel was used to estimate
S(L emissions. Coal consumption by railroads was obtained from
References 7 and 13.
3.1.4 Vessels
Vessel use of diesel fuel, residual oil, and coal is reported by the
Department of Energy.6>7 Gasoline use is based on national boat
and motor registrations, coupled with a use factor (gallons/motor/
year) from Reference 8. Emission factors from AP-422 are used to
compute emissions. Since AP-42 does not contain an emission factor
for coal use by vessels, an average emission factor for coal combus-
tion in boilers was used.
3.1.5 Nonhighway Use of Motor Fuels
Gasoline and diesel fuel are consumed by off-highway vehicles. The
fuel use is divided into seven categories; farm tractors, other farm
machinery, construction equipment, industrial machinery, small general
utility engines such as lawnmowers and snowthrowers, snowmobiles, and
motorcycles. Fuel use is estimated for each category from estimated
equipment population and an annual use factor of gallons per unit per
year. 8
3.2 Fuel Combustion in Stationary Sources
3.2.1 Coal
Bituminous coal, lignite, and anthracite coal use are reported by
the Department of Energy.7»H Most coal is consumed by electric
utilities. Average emission factors and the sulfur content of each
type of coal were used to estimate emissions. Degree of particul ate
control was based on a report by Midwest Research Institute^ to-
gether with data from NEDS10. Sulfur content data for electric
utilities are available from the Department of Energy^. Sulfur
contents for other categories are based on coal shipments data re-
ported in Reference 7 and average sulfur contents of coal shipped from
each production district as reported in Reference 13 or 24. For
electric utilities, S02 emissions are adjusted to account for flue
gas desulfurization controls, based on data reported in Reference 11.
3.2.2 Fuel Oil
Distillate oil, residual oil, and kerosene are consumed by
stationary sources nationwide. Consumption by user category is
reported by the Department of Energy.6 Average emission factors
and the sulfur content of each fuel were used to estimate emissions.
23
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3.2.3 Natural Gas
Natural gas consumption data are also reported by the Department of
Energy.12 Average emission factors from AP-42^ were used to
calculate the emission estimates.
3.2.4 Other Fuels
Consumption of wood has been estimated by the Department of
Energy.27 consumption of bagasse is based on data reported in
NEDS.10 Sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are reported in
Reference 25. Estimated consumption of coke and coke-oven gas are
based on References 13 and 26, together with data from NEDS. Average
emission factors were used to calculate emissions.
3.3 Industrial Processes
In addition to fuel combustion, certain other industrial processes
generate and emit varying quantities of pollutants into the air. The
lack of published national data on production, type of equipment, and
controls, as well as an absence of emission factors, makes it
impossible to include estimates of emissions from all industrial
process sources.
Production data for industries that produce the great majority of
emissions were derived from literature data. Generally, the Minerals
Yearbook,13 published by the Bureau of Mines, and Current Indus-
trial Reports,14 published by the Bureau of the Census, provide
adequate data for most industries. Average emission factors were
applied to production data to obtain emissions. Control efficiencies
applicable to various processes were estimated on the basis of pub-
lished reports9 and from NEDS data.10
For the purposes of this report, petroleum product storage and
marketing operations (gasoline, crude oil, and distillate fuel oil
storage and transfer, gasoline bulk terminals and bulk plants, retail
gasoline service stations) are included as industrial processes. Also
included as industrial processes are industrial surface coating and
degreasing operations, graphic arts (printing and publishing), and dry
cleaning operations. All of these processes involve the use of
organic solvents. Emissions from the consumption of organic solvents
are estimated based on data reported in Reference 15. It is assumed
that all solvents consumed are eventually released as air pollution.
3.4 Solid Waste Disposal
A study conducted in 1968 on sol id'waste collection and disposal
practices1^ was the basis for estimating emissions from solid
waste disposal. Results of this study indicate that the average
collection rate of solid waste is about 5.5 pounds per capita per day
in the United States. It has been stated that a conservative estimate
of the total generation rate is 10 pounds per capita per day. The
24
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results of this survey were updated based on data reported in NEDS and
used to estimate, by disposal method, the quantities of solid waste
generated. Average emission factors were applied to these totals to
obtain estimates of total emissions from the disposal of solid
wastes.
3.5 Miscellaneous Sources
3.5.1 Forest Fires
The Forest Service of the Department of Agriculture publishes infor-
mation on the number of forest fires and the acreage burned.17
Estimates of the amount of material burned per acre are made to esti-
mate the total amount of material burned. Similiar estimates are made
to account for managed burning of forest areas. Average emission
factors were applied to the quantities of materials burned to
calculate emissions.
3.5.2 Agricultural Burning
A studyl8 was conducted by EPA to obtain from local agricultural
and pollution control agencies estimates of the number of acres and
estimated quantity of material burned per acre in agricultural burning
operations. These data have been updated and used to estimate
agricultural burning emissions, based on average emission factors.
3.5.3 Coal Refuse
Estimates of the number of burning coal-refuse piles existing in
the United States are made in reports by the Bureau of Mines.19
Their publication presents a detailed discussion of the nature,
origin, and extent of this source of pollution. Rough estimates of
the quantity of emissions were obtained using this information by
applying average emission factors for coal combustion. It was assumed
that the number of burning refuse piles decreased to a negligible
amount by 1975.
3.5.4 Structural Fires
The United States Department of Commerce publishes, in their
statistical abstracts, information on the number and types of
structures damaged by fire^O. Emissions were estimated by apply-
ing average emission factors for wood combustion to these totals.
25
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3.5.5 Noniindustrial Organic Solvent Use
This category includes nonindustrial sales of surface coatings
(primarily for architectural coating) solvent evaporation from
consumer products (aerosols, space deodorants, polishes, toiletries,
etc.), use of volatile organic compounds as general cleaning solvents,
paint removers, and liquefaction of asphalt paving compounds, and
other undefined end uses. Total national organic solvent use is
estimated from chemical production reports of Reference 21, together
with estimates of the portion of total production for use as solvent
for each chemical.15 It is assumed that all solvent production is
equal to the amount necessary to make up for solvent lost through
evaporation. Estimated emissions from organic solvent use by indus-
trial processes and selected nonindustrial solvent use categories were
obtained from Reference 15. Solvent use not accounted for by indus-
trial processes is reported as nonindustrial organic solvent use, with
annual estimates adjusted according to solvent production levels.
26
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4. Analysis of Trends
National trends in air pollutant emissions are a function of a
number of factors. Air pollution control measures and economic
conditions have the strongest impact on total emissions. National
emission trends do not provide any insight into the distribution or
concentration of air pollution sources within the United States.
Therefore, local emission trends do not necessarily coincide with
national emission trends. Based on the national implementation of
control measures for some classes of sources, such as highway motor
vehicles, it is reasonable to infer that for most localities, the
national trend in emissions reasonably approximates local trends in
emissions for the same class of sources.
I
In addition to the fact that national emission trends do not measure
local changes in emission densities, national emission trends may not
be consistent with air quality trends because of the impact of
meteorological factors on air quality data. Also, the estimates for
PM, SOx, and NOx emissions include more substances than are routinely
measured by ambient air monitoring equipment. For example, high-
volume air samplers collect only suspended particulates approximately
0.3 to 100 micro-meters in diameter, but particulate emission
inventories include both suspended and settled particulates generated
by man's activities. Likewise sulfur dioxide (SO?) and nitrogen
dioxide (M^) ambient air monitors measure only those two com-
pounds while oxides of sulfur (SOx) and nitrogen (NOx) are included in
the emission estimates. In each case, the substance measured by the
ambient air monitor is the most prevalent constituent of its pollutant
class or is acknowledged to be its most representative indicator.
Estimates of oxidant emissions are not provided because most oxidant
species are secondary'pollutants generated by photochemical reactions
in the atmosphere. Emission estimates of VOC, a major ingredient in
oxidant-oroducing reactions, were developed from current emission
factors.2.3 generally, excluded from VOC estimates were emissions
of methane, ethane, methyl chloroform, and other compounds which are
considered to be of negligible photochemical reactivity. Organic
species were identified based on Reference 22. If no data were
available for a source category, the total nonmethane hydrocarbon or
the total hydrocarbon emission factor from Reference 2 was used.
Highway vehicle emissions were estimated as nonmethane VOC's.^
The following sections discuss the most important factors
influencing the emission trends for each pollutant.
4.1 Particulates
Particulate emissions result primarily from fuel combustion in
stationary sources and from industrial processes. Substantial
reductions in particulate emissions have occurred because of the
installation of control equipment on these sources. The extent of
27
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TABLE 18
THEORETICAL 1981 NATIONAL EMISSION ESTIMATES
BASED ON 1970 LEVEL OF CONTROL
(TERAGRAMS/YEAR)
Source Category PM SOX NOX VOC CO
Transportation
Highway Vehicles
Non-Highway
Transportation Total
Stationary Source Fuel Combustion
Electric Utilities
Industrial
Resi denti al /Commerci al
Fuel Combustion Total
Industrial Processes(SIC)
Mining Operations (10,12,13,14)
Food and Agricultural (02,07,20)
Wood Products (24,26)
Chemicals (28)
Petroleum Refining (29)
Metals (33)
Mineral Products (32)
Miscellaneous
Industrial Processes Total
Solid Waste
Miscellaneous
Total
1981 Actual Emissions (Table 1)
Theoretical 1981 Emissions
As A Percentage of 1981
Actual Emissions
1970 Actual Emissions (Table 1)
Theoretical 1981 Emissions
1.3
0.3
1.6
4.5
1.0
0.7
6.2
2.8
1.3
0.8
0.3
0.1
1.5
3.3
0.0
10.1
1.2
0.9
20.0
8.5
235%
17.9
112%
0.4
0.4
0.8
28.3
2.6
0.7
31.6
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.8
1.0
3.5
0.7
0.0
6.4
0.1
0.0
38.9
22.5
173%
28.4
137%
8.0
1.9
9.9
7.2
2.9
0.6
10.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
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0.7
0.4
0.2
21.9
19.5
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17.6
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14.4
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0.9
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0.2
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0.1
7.6
11.1
2.1
3.1
33.0
21.3
155%
-
27.2
121%
104.7
7.3
112.0
0.3
0.6
5.4
6.3
0.0
0.0
0.7
2.7
2.1
2.4
0.0
0.0
7.9
7.1
6.4
139.7
90.5
154%
112.8
124%
As A Percentage of 1970 Actual
Emissions
28
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the reduction is most evident from the data in Table 18 which shows
theoretical 1981 national emission estimates, assuming that pollutant
control levels did not change since 1970. Overall, particulate
emissions would have increased by about 12 percent from 1970 to 1981
with no change in the degree of control from 1970. In comparison, as
shown in Table 1, particulate emissions decreased about 53 percent
from 1970 to 1981. Thus, 1981 actual particulate emissions were less
than half of what they might have been without additional control
efforts since 1970.
N_
A large portion of the particulate emissions from stationary source
fuel combustion, result from the combustion of coal. In 1970, a
larger proportion of coal was consumed in the industrial and residen-
tial sectors. Residential coal use has declined substantially since
1970, resulting in a corresponding reduction in emissions. Industrial
coal use has also declined, but not to the same extent. The degree of
control employed by industrial coal consumers has increased however,
so that overall industrial coal combustion emissions have decreased by
1981 to only about 20 percent of the estimated 1970 level. On the
other hand, coal combustion by electric utilities has increased
greatly, from an estimated 321 million tons in 1970 to 597 million
tons in 1981. However, particulate emissions from electric utilities
have decreased, despite continued increases in coal consumption.
Installation of improved control equipment is responsible for this
reduction. New facilities constructed in the 1970's were required to
meet New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) requirements to achieve a
high degree of .control. From Tables 2 and 18, it can be seen that if
the 1970 level of control had remained in effect in 1981, electric
utility emissions would have nearly doubled, from 2.3 teragrams to 4.5
teragrams. Estimated actual 1981 emissions from electric utilities
were 1.0 teragrams, a decrease of 56 percent from 1970.
Particulate emissions from industrial processes have been reduced
substantially due to installation of improved control equipment man-
dated by air-pollution control programs. Since 1970, actual emissions
from industrial processes declined by over 60 percent. If the 1970
control level had remained unchanged to 1981, emissions would have
stayed about the same. It should be noted that industrial production
levels for many sectors in 1981 were significantly lower than in the
previous few years, reflecting poor economic conditions. This down-
turn in industrial production also contributes to a decreased level of
emissions relative to 1970. Table 13 shows estimated emissions for
specific processes. These annual emissions estimates reflect changes
in production levels along with an increase in average control levels
from 1970 to 1981.
29
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Caveats that should be noted with respect to these participate
emission estimates are first that the estimates represent total
participate emissions, without any distinction of particle sizes.
Thus, both large particles and small particles are included. Emis-
sions of very large particles are more likely to settle out of the
atmosphere and not be measured as total suspended particulate by air
quality monitoring equipment. Small and intermediate size particles
are more likely to remain airborne and are more efficiently captured
by total -suspended particulate air monitoring equipment. Small
particles are also capable of being inhaled into the human respiratory
system, posibly causing adverse health effects. The particulate
emission controls that have been employed to date have been most
effective in reducing emisssions of large and intermediate size
particles. The trend in the emissions of small particles is not
clearly known. It is very doubtful whether small particle emissions
have been reduced to the extent that total particulate emissions have
been reduced, however. It should be noted that some small particles
may be formed in the atmosphere as the result of various chemical and
physical processes. Such particles are not included in the estimated
total particulate emissions. A second caveat is that fugitive
particulate (emissions from unconfined sources such as storage piles,
material loading, etc.) emissions are incompletely accounted for in
the emission totals. Rough estimates of industrial process fugitive
emissions are included for some industries. Area source fugitive dust
emissions (unpaved roads, construction activities, etc.) are not
included at all. Similarly, natural sources of particulates, such as
wind erosion or dust, are not included. (An exception is forest fires,
some of which result from natural causes). In total, these fugitive
emissions may amount to a considerable portion of total particulate
emissions. The controls applied to these sources have so far been
minimal. Due to the lack of adequate emission factors and emission
inventory techniques for these sources, fugitive particulate emissions
have not been included in most emission inventories. As additional
data become available, it is expected that estimates of fugitive
particulate emissions will be included in future emission inventories.
It should be noted, however, that a major portion of the fugitive
particulate emissions are relatively large particles that are not
readily captured by particulate air quality monitors. Similarly,
these large particles do not effectively enter into the human
respiratory system.
4.2 Sulfur oxides
Fuel combustion by stationary sources produces most sulfur oxide
emissions. In addition, certain industrial processes, such as
smelting of copper, lead, and zinc ores, sulfuric acid manufacturing,
and other industries also produce sulfur oxide emissions. Since 1970,
total sulfur oxide emissions have declined slightly as the result of
use of fuels with lower average sulfur contents, some scrubbing of
sulfur oxides from fluegases, and controls on industrial process
sources. Significant emission reductions from industrial processes
30
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have occurred, mostly from non-ferrous smelters and sulfuric acid
plants. By-product recovery of sulfuric acid at smelters has
increased since 1970. As a result sulfur oxide emissions that
previously would have been released to the atmosphere are recovered as
sulfuric acid. Since 1972, new sulfuric acid manufacturing plants
have been subject to New Source Performance Standards requirements.
These rules have contributed to decreased emissions, as new plants
built to meet new product demands or replace old facilities, must meet
more stringent emission limitations than old facilities.
As shown in the tables, since 1970 sulfur oxide emissions from
electric utilities account for more than half of total emissions.
Combustion of sulfur-bearing fuels, chiefly coal and residual fuel
oil, is responsible. Between 1970 and 1981, utility use of coal
increased by over 85 percent. Emissions from utilities have actually
decreased slightly, because fuels with lower sulfur content have been
used to the extent that they were available. In addition, flue gas
desulfurization systems installed by the late 1970's have been
effective in preventing additional increases in electric utility
emissions. 1981 electric utility emissions would have been
approximately 10 percent higher without the operation of flue gas
desulfurization controls. The theoretical 1981 national emission
estimates given in Table 18 for stationary fuel combustion sources are
based on 1981 fuel amounts but 1970 average sulfur contents. On this
basis, electric utility emissions would have increased 79 percent. In
fact, emissions decreased about 6 percent. Sulfur oxide emissions
from other fuel combustion sectors decreased, primarily due to less
coal burning by these industrial, commercial and residential
consumers.
4.3 Nitrogen oxides
Nitrogen oxide emissions result almost entirely from transportation
and stationary fuel combustion sources. Controls applied to sources
of NOx emissions have had a limited effect in reducing emissions
through 1981. Table 18 shows that with the 1970 control level,
national NOx emissions would have been only 12 percent higher than
actual 1981 emissions. The emissions from stationary fuel combustion
sources largely reflect the actual growth in fuel consumption. For
electric utilities, NSPS control requirements have held down the
growth in NOx emissions somewhat. Nevertheless, NOx emissions from
electric utilities increased 47 percent from 1970 to 1981. For mobile
sources, NOx emissions were controlled as a result of the Federal
Motor Vehicle Control Program (FMVCP). Nitrogen oxide emissions from
highway vehicles would have increased 45 percent, had there been no
change in control level since 1970. The estimates of actual NOx
emissions show a 20 percent increase.
4.4 Volatile organic compounds
Since 1970, emissions of VOO decreased primarily due to motor
vehicle controls and less burning of solid waste. Had controls not
been implemented, a substantial increase in emissions from highway
31
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vehicles would have occurred. From 1970 to 1981, vehicle-miles of
travel in the U.S. increased by about 37 percent.^ A comparable
increase in emissions would have occurred had 1970 control levels
remained unchanged. As a result of the controls put in place, VOC
emissions from highway vehicles actually decreased 40 percent. VOC
emissions also decreased due to the substitution of water-based
emulsified asphalts (used for road paving) for asphalts liquefied with
petroleum distillates (cutback asphalts). This is reflected in the
decreased emissions reported for miscellaneous organic solvent use.
These decreases were offset by increases in industrial process
emissions so that overall, total VOC emissions were reduced only about
22 percent from 1970 to 1981. Industrial process emissions increased
due to higher production levels, particularly in industrial sectors
such as petroleum refining, organic chemical production, and indus-
trial uses of organic solvents. Control procedures employed were
effective in limiting the growth in emissions, however. In addition,
source production levels in 1980 and 1981 were relatively low due to
poor economic conditions. Through the mid-19701s, emissions from
petroleum product storage and marketing operations also increased as
the result of increased demand for petroleum products, particularly
motor gasoline. Since 1979, emissions from this source sector are
estimated to have decreased as the result of declining product demand
and more effective control measures.
Volatile organic compounds along with nitrogen oxides are partici-
pants in atmospheric chemical and physical processes that result in
the formation of ozone and other photochemical oxidants. Emissions of
VOC that are most likely to have a role in such atmospheric processes
are included in the reported emissions estimates. Photochemically
non-reactive compounds such as methane are not included in the esti-
mated emissions of VOC. Biogenic sources of organic compounds such as
trees and other vegetation are not included either. Initial estimates
are that emissions of VOC from naturally-occurring sources exceed the
amount of anthropogenic emissions. The extent to which biogenic
sources of VOC contribute to oxidant formation, if at all, has not
been clearly established, however.
4.5 Carbon Monoxide
Highway motor vehicles are the largest contributing source of CO
emissions. The implementation of the Federal Motor Vehicle Control
Program (FMVCP) has been successful in reducing CO emissions since the
early 1970's. From 1972 through 1978, motor vehicle miles of travel
increased 22 percent, but because of controls on new vehicles, total
CO emissions from highway vehicles decreased 8 percent. From 1978 to
1981, vehicle miles of travel are estimated to have declined about one
32
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percent. This lack of growth in vehicle travel together with an
increased degree of control because of stricter emission standards for
new vehicles and the gradual disappearance of older uncontrolled
vehicles from the vehicle fleet, produced an estimated 15 percent drop
in highway vehicle emissions in just three years. Overall from 1970 to
1981, without the implementation of FMVCP, highway vehicle emissions
would have increased 36 percent. By comparison, actual emissions are
estimated to have decreased 19 percent.
CO emissions from other sources have also generally decreased. In
1970, emissions from burning of agricultural crop residues were
greater than in more recent years. Solid waste disposal emissions
have also decreased as the result of implementation of regulations
limiting or prohibiting burning of solid waste in many areas. Emis-
sions of CO from stationary source fuel combustion occur mainly from
the residential sector. These emissions were reduced somewhat through
the mid-1970's as residential consumers converted to natural gas, oil,
or electric heating equipment. Recent growth in the use of residen-
tial wood stoves has reversed this trend, but increased CO emissions
from residential sources continue to be insignificant compared to
highway vehicle emissions. CO emissions from industrial processes
have generally been declining since 1970 as the result of the obso-
lescence of a few high-polluting processes such as manufacture of
carbon black by the channel process and installation of controls on
other processes.
33
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5. References
*1.National Emissions Report, National Emissions Data System (NEDS).NADB,
OAQPS,US Environmental Protection Agency,Research Triangle Park,NC.
Publication No.EPA-450/4-81-009.August 1981.
2.Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors,Third Edition (Inclu-
ding Supplements 1-13).US Environmental Protection Agency,Research
Triangle Park,NC.Publication No.AP-42.
3.Mobile 2 Users's Guide and Supporting Background Documentation (Draft)
US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Mobile Source Air
Pollution Control, Ann Arbor, Michigan.1979
*4.Highway Statistics.Federal Highway Administration,US Department of
Transportati on,Washi ngton,DC.1980.
*5.FAA Air Traffic Activity.Federal Aviation Administration,US
Department of Transportation,Washington,DC.1981.
*6.Energy Data Reports,Deliveries of Fuel Oil and Kerosene,Energy Infor-
mation Administration,US Department of Energy,Washington,DC.Pub!ication
No. DOE/EIA-0113(80).February 1982.
*7.Coal Distribution January-December, Energy Information Administration,
US Department of Energy, Washington,DC.Publication No. DOE/EIA-
0125(81/4Q).April 1982.
8.Exhaust Emissions from Uncontrolled Vehicles and Related Equipment
Using Internal Combustion Engines.Southwest Research Institute,
San Antonio,TX.Prepared for US Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park,NC.EPA Contract No.EHS 70-108.Oct 1973.
9.Particulate Pollutant Systems Study.Midwest Research Institute,Kansas
City,MO.Prepared for US Environmental Protection Agency,Research
Triangle Park,NC.National Air Pollution Control Administration
Contract No.CPA 22-69-104.May 1971.
10.Standard Computer Retrievals from the National Emissions Data System
(NEDS).Unpublished computer report available from NADB,OAQPS,US
Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park,NC.
*11 .Energy Data Reports, Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Utility
Plants-!980, Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy,
Washington, D.C. Publication No. DOE/EIA-0191(80).June 1981.
*12.Natural Gas Annual,Energy Information Administration,U.S. Department of
Energy,Washington,D.C. Publication No. DOE/EID-0131(80).February 1982.
13.Minerals Yearbook.Bureau of Mines, US Department of the Interior,
Washington,DC.1980.
*14.Current Industrial Reports.Bureau of the Census,US Department of Com-
merce, Washington,DC.
15.End Uses of Solvents Containing Volatile Organic Compounds, The
Research Corporation of New England, Wethersfield, CT,EPA Publication
EPA-450/3-79-032, May 1979.
16.1968 National Survey of Community Solid Waste Practices.Public Health
Service,US Department of Health,Education,and Welfare,Cincinnati,
OH.PHS Publication No.1867.1968.
*These publications are issued periodically. The most recent publication
available when this document was prepared is cited.
34
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*17.Wildfire Statistics.Forest Service,US Department of Agriculture,
Washington,DC 1978.
18.Emissions Inventory from Forest Wildfires,Forest Managed Burns,
and Agricultural Burns.US Environmental Protection Agency,
Research Triangle Park,NC 27711.Publication No.EPA-450/3-74-062.
November 1974.
19.Coal Refuse Fires,An Environmental Hazard.Bureau of Mines,US
Department of the Interior,Washington,DC.Information Circular
8515.1971.
*20.Statistical Abstract of the United States.Bureau of the Census, US
Department of Commerce,Washington,DC.1981(102nd ed.)
*21.Chemical and Engineering News,Annual Facts and Figures Issue,American
Chemical Society,Washington, DC.June 14,1982.
22.Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Species Data Manual Second Edition,US
Environmental Protection Agency,Research Triangle Park,NC.Publication
No.EPA-450/4-80-015.July 1980.
23.Standard Industrial Classification Manual 1972, Executive Office of
the President, Office of Management and Budget, Washington, D.C.
*24.Coal Production,Energy Information Administration,US Department of
Energy,Washington,DC.1979.Publication No. DOE/EIA-0118(80).May 1982
*25.Energy Data Reports,Sales of Liquefied Petroleum Gases and Ethane,
Energy Information Administration,US Department of Energy,Washington,
DC.Publication No. DOE/EIA-0114(80).December 1981.
*26.Coke and Coal Chemicals,Energy Information Administration,US Depart-
ment of Energy,Washington,DC.Publication No. DOE/EIA-0120(80).November
1981.
27.Estimates of U.S. Wood Energy Consumption from 1949 to 1981.U.S. Dept.
of Energy, Washington,DC.Publication No. DOE/EIA-0341.August 1982.
*These publications are issued periodically. The most recent publication
available when this document was prepared is cited.
35
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO. 2.
EPA-450/4-82-012
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1970-1981
7. AUTHOR(S)
Monitoring and Data Analysis Division
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air, Noise and Radiation
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION«NO.
5. REPORT DATE
September 1982
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Final - 1970-1981
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
This report presents estimates of trends in nationwide air pollutant emissions for
the five major pollutants: sulfur oxides, particulates, carbon monoxide, volatile
organic compounds, and nitrogen oxides. Estimates are broken down according to major
types of air pollutant sources. A short analysis of emission trends is given, along
with a discussion of methods used to develop the data.
17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
a. DESCRIPTORS
trends, emissions, inventory, air
pollutants, nationwide, sulfur oxides,
carbon monoxide, particulates, volatile
organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, con-
trollable emissions, miscellaneous sources
IS. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release unlimited
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
Unclassified
20. SECURITY .CLASS (This page)
Unclassified
c. COSATI Field/Group
21. NO. OF PAGES
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)
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