United States Office of Air Quality EPA-450/4-82-014
Environmental Protection Planning and Standards February 1982
Agency Research Triangle Park NC 27711
Air
Cost Analysis of
Proposed Changes
to the
Air Quality Modeling
Guidlines
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Errata
Cost Analysis of Proposed
Changes To The Air Quality
Modeling Guidelines
Page 11. Heading for fifth column of table should be, "Averaging
Period(s)".
Page 12. 3rd Paragraph
Third bullet should be, "number of load conditions".
Page 29. Table 8
Total cost figure for Run number 1 should be 76,900, not
75,400.
Computer budget figure for Run number 3 should be 160,
not 190.
Page 30. Table 9
Note b should refer to Appendix E, not Appendix C.
Page 32. Table 11
Figure in second column, first line should be 76,900,
not 75,400.
Page A-18. Table A-6(e)
The column headed Materials should reference the footnote,
i.e., change to read, "Materials .
The total cost in the Materials column should be 13,600,
not 53,500.
Page D-l. 3rd bullet, Second sentence
Change "single frequency distribution, etc." to read
"a joint frequency distribution summary of wind speed,
wind direction, and stability category."
Page E-5. Table E-l(b)
The total cost figure for the task, "Acquisition and
Preparation of Meteorological Data" should be 63,920,
not 63.920.
Change total cost figure to 76,920 and "Call"
value to 76,900.
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Page E-17. Table E-2(e)
Change total cost for Acquisition and Preparation of
Emissions Data to 1,340.
Page E-19. Table E-2(g)
The hours and dollars under total cost for Analysis of
Results and Report Preparation are erroneously offset.
Strike out the figures given and insert 704 in the hours
column and 19,890 in the dollars column. The same type
of correction is needed on pages E-23 and E-32.
Page E-26. Table E-3(e)
Add a total cost for Model Execution of.1,260 and change the
total cost for Analysis of Results, etc to 17,260.
Page E-28. Table E-3(g)
Change Total cost figures to 89,290.
Page E-32. Table E-4(b)
Change the title for the third Modeling analysis task to
"Receptor Siting and Model Option Selection".
Page E-37. Table E-4(g)
Change Total Cost figure to 126,920.
Page E-41. Table E-5(b)
Change total cost for Acquisition and Preparation of
Emission Data to 440.
Page E-44. Table E-5(e)
In the heading, for METEOROLOGICAL DATA: change to read,
"1 year onsite hourly".
- ' '»'' "..;->-< ,.,f ,.-
Page G-8. First^bj^l^t^Fjr^t Sentence
i \v'"Ch.ange s"fHcv6'.'"'to "Inc."
>v ' - -l;- ' ;v-.%-vr.^t^-'.
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EPA-450/4-82-014
Cost Analysis of
Proposed Changes to the
Air Quality Modeling
Guidelines
by
Michael Wojcik, Jane Wojcik, Paul Bareford,
Mary Havelock, Michael Geraghty, Sue Ellen Haupt
GCA Corporation
GCA/Technology Division
Burlington Road, Bedford, MA 01730
Program Element No. 68-02-3168
Task Order No. 51
U.S. -Environmtnttl -Protection
Region V, Library
230 South Dearborn Street
Chicago, Httnols 60604
Prepared for
U.S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Monitoring and Data Analysis Division
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711.
February 1982
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This report has been reviewed by the Monitoring and Data Analysis Division of the Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, EPA, and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products is not intended to
constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. Copies of this report are available through the Library Services
Office (MD-35), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711; or, for a fee, from
the National Technical Information Services, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, Virginia 22161.
Publication No. EPA-450/4-82-014
U,B. Emrticnmarrtal Protection Agency
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FOREWORD
EPA held a series of public meetings in October 1980 for the
purpose of discussing proposed revisions to the Guideline on Air
Quality Models, EPA 450/2-78-027. During those meetings there were
many comments concerning the apparent disregard of costs as a factor
in the EPA selection of recommended models-and data bases.
This report is designed to provide a basis for response to the
comments EPA received and will be used in the development of revisions
to the guideline. Determining the representative cost of a modeling
study is exceedingly difficult since there is no "typical" model appli-
cation. The complexity and therefore the cost of an analysis varies
with the complexity of the problem and with the availability of suit-
able modeling tools and model input requirements. No two groups will
design or conduct a modeling study in precisely the same manner.
Also, labor and computer rates vary considerably. To arrive at a
figure that typifies the cost of a regulatory modeling analysis requires
numerous assumptions. Therefore, great care should be exercised in the
use of the information provided in this report. The cost figures should
not be applied except in the context of the assumptions made in their
development.
In addition, there is no information in this report on the potential
benefits which might be realized from the use of more costly modeling
options. Such benefits would accrue from a more adequate identification
of emission limits or determination of increment consumption. These
could involve cost savings either related to avoiding unnecessary
environmental damage or avoiding unnecessarily expensive control equipment.
The magnitude of these potential savings could easily far outweigh the
additional modeling costs involved. While these potential savings cannot
be quantified on a nationwide basis, their potential magnitude should
receive substantial weight in specific decisions on the choice of models
and data bases.
David H. Barrett
Project Officer
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CONTENTS
Tables v i
1. Introduction 1
2. Estimated Cost Difference between Certain 1978 Guideline
Recommendations and 1980 Proposed Revisions 4
Introduction ..... 4
Cost estimates of air quality modeling tasks 7
Cost estimates of air quality modeling analyses .... 14
Cost estimates of air quality modeling analyses using
HIWAY2 versus CALINE3 16
3. Sensitivity of Modeling Costs to Level of Data Input and
Model Cost Comparisons 19
Sensitivity of Modeling Cost to Level of Data Input 19
Model Cost Comparisons 27
4. Typical Cost of Applying Air Quality Models 34
5. Cost of a Demonstration Study of Nonguideline Models .... 38
6. Nationwide Impact of Proposed AQMG Revisions on PSD and SIP
Modeling 40
Nationwide impact of proposed ACMG revisions on SIP
modeling 40
Nationwide impact of proposed AQMG revisions on PSD
modeling 40
7. The Comparative Cost of a Screening Study 47
8. Cost Comparison of Determining SIP Emission Limits from Moni-
toring Data Versus Modeling 50
9. Comparative Cost of Block Averaging and Running Averaging
Calculations 51
10. Comments on Other Air Quality Modeling Issues of Concern . 53
Cost of model validation and evaluation study in complex
terrain ..... 53
Cost of applying photochemical grid models 55
References 57
Appendices
A. Cost Estimates for Data Acquisition and Data Processing . . . A-l
B. Cost Estimate for Collecting and Processing 1-Year of Onsite
Meteorological Data B-l
C. Cost Estimates for Model Runs C-l
D. Cost Estimates for Analysis of Results and Report
Preparation D-l
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CONTENTS (continued)
E. Cost Estimates of TSP and SC>2 Air Quality Modeling
Analyses E-l
F. Cost of an Air Quality Analysis for Models Recommended for
Guideline Status F-l
G. Cost of a Demonstration Study G-l
H. Cost of Determining Emission Limits from Monitoring Data and
Modeling in Complex Terrain H-l
I. Comparison of CPU Time on an IBM 3033N to Other Commonly
Used Computers 1-1
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TABLES
Number Page
1 Mr Quality Modeling Procedure 6
2 Input Requirements and Characteristics of Models Analyzed
by GCA 11
3 Computer Costs of a 1 Year Simulation of S02 and TSP Air
Quality Impacts Assuming a 5 Kilometer or 5 Ring Receptor
Resolution 13
4 Cost of Air Quality Analysis of CO Impact Near Ten Intersections
Using HIWAY2 17
5 Cost of Air Quality Analysis of CO Impact Near Ten Intersections
Using CALINE3 18
6 The Sensitivity of TSP and S02 Mr Quality Modeling Costs to
the Level of Data Input 20
7 Cost of an S02 and TSP Mr Quality Analysis Performed Following
the 1978 AQMG and Using 1 Year of NWS Meteorological Data ... 28
8 Cost of an S02 and TSP Mr Quality Analysis Performed Following
the 1978 AQMG and Using I Year of Onsite Meteorological Data . 29
9 Cost of an S02 and TSP Air Quality Analysis Performed Following
the 1980 Proposed AQMG and Using 5 Years of NWS Meteorological
Data 30
10 Cost of an S02 and TSP Air Quality Analysis Performed Following
the 1980 Proposed AQMG and Using 1 Year of Onsite
Meteorological Data 31
11 Cost of a TSP and S02 Air Quality Analysis Under 1978 AQMG
Requirements and Requirements in the 1980 Proposed AQMG .... 32
12 Typical Cost of Applying Mr Quality Models 36
13 Number and Type of S02 SIP Revisions Nationwide in a Normal
Year 41
14 Number and Types of TSP SIP Revisions Nationwide in a Normal
Year 42
vti
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TABLES (continued)
Breakdown of Number of TSP and SC>2 SIP Related Modeling Studies
and the Model Recommended Under the 1980 Proposed Revision to
the AQMG 43
16 Nationwide Cost of TSP and S02 Related Modeling Studies .... 44
17 Estimate of the Number of TSP and SC>2 PSD Modeling Analyses by
Model Used 45
18 Nationwide Cost of TSP and S02 PSD Related Modeling Studies . . 46
19 Cost of a TSP and SC-2 Screening Study 49
20 Comparative Cost of TSP and SC>2 Analyses Performed With Models
Making Block Averaging and Running Averaging Calculations
for Two Averaging Periods 52
21. Cost of Analysis and Report Tasks of a Model Validation and
Evaluation Study 54
ym
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SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a set of
guidelines to be followed in any air quality modeling study performed for the
EPA. The Guideline on Mr Quality Models1 (AQMG) was issued in 1978 as a
part of the Office of Mr Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) Guideline
Series. Since the release of the 1978 AQMG, the EPA has had a chance to
review its effectiveness and gather together recommendations on how the
document could be improved. In 1980, a proposed revision to the 1978 AOMG was
issued for review.2 GCA has been contracted by OAQPS of EPA, to examine
some of the costs associated with implementing certain features of the 1980
proposed revision.
An air quality modeling analysis consists of the following tasks:
data acquls.i tion,
data processing,
model execution, and
analysis of results and report preparation.
In Section 2 of this report, the costs of performing each of the above
tasks Is determined based on the 1978 AQMG versus certain additional
provisions of the proposed revisions. The cost analysis is performed for the
following set of modeling situations:
rural, single-source,
rural, multi-source,
urban, single-source,
urban, multi-source,
rural/urban, industrial source complex, and
line source, roadway intersection.
Excluding the line source situation, all modeling situations are assumed to
concern TSP and S(>2.
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For each modeling situation, the cost of acquiring and processing the
emission and meteorological data is assessed. Requirements under both the
1978 AQMG and the 1980 proposed revision to the AQMG are considered. In the
case of the proposed revision document, where appropriate, the cost of the
option of collecting meteorological data onsite is assessed.
The cost of model execution is analyzed for the modeling situations
listed above. Models recommended in the 1978 AQMG and models recommended in
the 1980 proposed revision to the AQMG were run by GCA. Complete model runs
for 1 year of meteorological data were made whenever possible. If the cost of
a complete run was too prohibitive, a sensitivity study was conducted to
estimate computer costs.
The final task in an air quality modeling study is analyzing the results
and preparing the report. The cost of the total direct labor to complete this
task is estimated based on GCA experience. Modeling requirements, as stated
in the 1978 AQMG and the proposed revision to the AQMG, determine the amount
of labor (cost) required for this concluding task.
The cost estimates for the various components of the analysis were
combined to provide an estimate of the total cost for performing an air
quality modeling analysis. In addition to estimating the cost of compliance
with the 1978 AQMG and the 1980 proposed AQMG, the cost of combinations of the
two documents is analyzed. The intent here is to isolate the cost of each
proposed change in modeling requirements.
Based upon the cost assessment of air quality modeling studies under 1978
AQMG requirements and 1980 proposed AQMG described in Section II, a set of
related issues are addressed. They are:
Section 3^Sensitivity of Modeling Costs to Level of Data Input and
Mojlel Cost Comparisons
The sensitivity of modeling costs to differing levels of required
data input is assessed. Also, the cost of an air quality modeling
analysis under the same modeling situation but using different
models is considered. A variety of modeling situations are
considered.
Section 4Typical Cost of Applying Air Quality Models
Costs of air quality modeling analyses are estimated for using
models under consideration for recommendation by EPA, as well as for
models already recommended. If appropriate, the cost of an analysis
includes control strategy analysis.
Section 5Cost of Demonstration Study of Nonguideline Models
Estimated costs are presented for conducting a demonstration study
as outlined in the 1980 proposed AQMG. A detailed breakdown is
provided for the cost of carrying out the three field study options,
described in the revision document.
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Section 6Nationwide Impact of Proposed Revisions on PSD and SIP
Modeling
Estimated costs of air quality analyses determined in Section 3 are
applied to the estimated number of PSD permits and SIP revisions per
year. This gives an indication of the overall impact of the
requirements in the proposed revision.
Section 7The Comparative Cost of a Screening Study
The cost of performing a screening analysis for a rural point source
is estimated. This cost is compared to the cost of a refined study.
Section 8Cost Comparison of Determining SIP Emission Limits from
Monitoring Data versus Modeling
The monitoring requirements outlined in the 1980 proposed revision
document are applied to a point source in a valley and the cost of
the study is determined. The costs are compared to the costs of a
modeling study.
* Section 9Comparative Cost of Block Averaging and Running Averaging
Calculations
All of the short-term recommended models perform block averaging.
The EPA has a modified version of CRSTER that calculates running
averages. EPA's findings on the cost impact of utilizing CRSTER as
a running average model are applied to judge the impact of similar
changes in running other models.
Section 10Comments on Other Air Quality Modeling Issues of Concern
Two additional issues of concern to the EPA are addressed. First,
the cost information gathered by GCA is applied to determine the
cost of model validation and evaluation of a point source in complex
terrain. Next, the cost of a modeling study involving the
photochemical grid model, Urban Airshed, is compared to the cost of
a model applications involving Gaussian models.
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SECTION 2
ESTIMATED COST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CERTAIN 1978 GUIDELINE
RECOMMENDATIONS AND 1980 PROPOSED REVISIONS
INTRODUCTION
The 1980 proposed guideline revisions place much more emphasis on: use
of 5 years of National Weather Service (NWS) data (or a year of onsite data),
rather than 1 year of NWS data; use of three load conditions rather than one
in modeling point sources; and greater receptor resolution. The proposed
revisions also recommend the use of population/land use data to characterize
an area as rural or urban and make a number of changes in recommended models-
Although a number of the items related to the level of data input (e.g., 5
years of NWS data) had been endorsed in the 1978 Guidelines, different
agencies and jurisdictions have adopted differing requirements. Also,
requirements have tended to be established on a case-by-case basis. A major
purpose of the proposed revisions was to achieve consistency in both level of
data input and model selection.
To estimate certain cost differences between the 1978 Guidelines and the
proposed revisions, it is necessary to make some assumptions about what has
been common practice under the 1978 Guideline and what would be common
practice if the proposed revisions were adopted. For the purpose of this
study the following assumptions are made:
1978 guidelines 1980 proposed revisions
Meteorological Data 1 year NWS 5 years NWS or 1 year
onsite
Number Load Conditions 1 3
Receptor Resolution 5 receptor rings or 5 km 10 receptor grids or 1 km
grid plus maximum impact grid plus maximum impact
receptors receptors
Use of land/use popula- No Yes
tion data to classify
areas as urban or rural
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Also, cost comparisons have been made for certain changes in recommended
models in the proposed guideline revision. For convenience, this common set
of assumptions will be referred to as the 1978 guideline requirements and the
1980 proposed revisions, respectively.
The purpose of this section is to describe the methodology used in
deriving cost estimates which provide a comparison of some of the 1978
Guideline recommendations and the corresponding recommendations in the 1980
proposed revisions.
The tasks that make up an air quality analysis are described briefly in
Table 1. In this report, cost estimates are made for the labor, computer
time, and material requirements necessary to satisfy the 1978 guideline
requirements and the 1980 proposed revisions- A detailed cost analysis,
including results of model runs performed by GCA, is made for the following
models:
CRSTER,
MPTER,
RAM,
ISC,
CDM,
TEM8-A, and
TCM
Computer Costs
All model executions were made on an IBM 3033N and all computer costs
herein reflect this fact. It is important to note that these cost figures are
the result of the costing algorithm in effect at the particular facility where
the computer runs were made. They should not be interpreted as necessarily
indicative of the cost on similar IBM hardware or that of other vendors.
Depending upon the commercial facilities used, the costs could vary
significantly from those given in this report. Appendix I gives the cost
algorithm in effect at the facility used during the study. In addition,
tables are given which provide rough approximations of the relative
performance of most large scale computers as well as several smaller computers
compared to the IBM 3033N. It is emphasized that these conversion factors are
only rough approximations and should only be used as such.
Labor Cost Structure
In arriving at a dollar cost for the labor required under each task, GCA
defined a labor grade and cost scale as follows:
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TABLE 1. AIR QUALITY MODELING PROCEDURE
Task Description
Data Acquisition Emission, meteorological and source location maps
must be acquired. If onsite meteorological data is
being collected, there are additional equipment and
maintenance costs.
Data Preparation Preliminary calculations and data processing must be
accomplished before modeling can proceed. In
particular, the meteorological data must be
translated into a model compatable format. This can
be a major effort if onsite meteorological data is
involved. In addition, receptor locations are
determined with the aid of the PTPLU screening model.
Model Execution Once emission, meteorological and receptor inputs
have been prepared and all model options have been
selected^ the model run(s) are made.
Analysis of Results and Model results are analyzed and comparison with
Preparation of Report acceptable NAAQS, PSD increment and/or emission
offset impacts is made. Entire study is documented
and the report is presented to the appropriate
federal, state, and local government agencies.
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Cost per week
Labor grade Definition (1980 dollars)
1C) Group Scientist 2,000
9 Principal Scientist 1,680
8 Staff Scientist 1,380
7 Senior Scientist 1,180
6 Scientist 990
5 Junior Scientist 780
4 Technical Illustrator 720
3 Technical Typist 580
The costs per week reflect the following: direct labor (37.5 percent),
salary related costs (12.2 percent), overhead (46.7 percent), and
administrative expenses (3.6 percent). They should be representative of the
fee a consulting firm would command of federal and state agencies for 1 week
of a given labor grade's time. However, the labor cost figures quoted here
are only estimates, which GCA hopes accurately portray the cost of the air
quality analyses addressed in this report.
In the discussion of air quality modeling tasks that follows, the labor
grade mixes and hour estimates are based upon GCA1s experience over the last
3 years. The labor estimates are intended to represent typical requirements
for a credible, professional performance of the required work.
COST ESTIMATES OF AIR QUALITY MODELING TASKS
The cost estimates for an air quality analysis were arrived at by
breaking up an air quality analysis into the following procedure:
acquisition and preparation of emission data,
acquisition and preparation of meteorological data,
labor and computer costs of siting receptors and selecting model
options (including rural/urban option),
computer cost of model execution,
labor cost of model execution, and
cost of analysis and report preparation.
Each step of the procedure was addressed separately and is discussed below.
Cost estimates for some of the steps were independent of the model involved.
The emission data task, for example, depends only upon the type of emission
set. Other tasks, like computer cost of model execution, relate directly to
the model used.
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Acquisition and Preparation of Emission Data
A cost estimate was made for the following six emission data sets:
Set 1A three stack power plant, a single-source, point source
situation representative of emissions from a moderate size power
plant,
Set 2The multi-source, point source modeling situation, example 4
in the MPTER users manual,
Set 3The Hypothetical Potash Plant, representative of an
industrial complex and used as an example in the ISC users manual,
Set 4A multipoint and multiarea source modeling situation from the
RAM users manual,
Set 5A moderate sized urban area point and area source modeling
situation, the Hartford urban area emission data base as compiled in
the NEDS inventory and in the 1979 Connecticut SIP, and
Set 6A line source test data set used as example 3 in the CALINE 3
users manual*
Emission sets 1 through 5 are documented in Appendix A. The line source data
set will be discussed later in this section.
Set 1, Table A-2a in Appendix A, is data for a hypothetical three stack
power plant. It is representative of the type and amount of emission data
required in a single-source, point source analysis. An examination of Table
A-2a reveals the emission requirements for this modeling situation are minimal.
A multi-source, point source situation is exemplified by Table A-2b. The
type of information required for each point source is the same as in the
modeling situation represented by Table A-2a, but the number of point sources
has increased significantly. This will be reflected in the amount of effort
required in preparing the emission data sets. Also, the fact that all stacks
are not collocated as in the previous situation will result in a greater
effort being required to site receptors.
The hypothetical potash plant emission data set is presented in Table
A-2c, in ISC style format. There are 16 sources in all at this hypothetical
complex industrial site consisting of: 1 stack, 1 area source and 14 volume
sources. All the sources are at one site as in emission set 1 but a
significant amount of emissions come from nonpoint sources.
Set 4 is documented in Table A-2d. It consists of 12 point sources and
15 area sources over a 15 by 15 kilometer area. This emission data set will
be used to estimate the cost of modeling a multisite situation in an urban
area. This data set is not meant to be representative of an entire urban
area. However, set 5, listed in Table A-2e is representative of a point and
area source emission data set for a moderate sized urban area. There are 28
point sources and 119 five-kilometer-wide area sources-
8
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GCA reviewed emission data sets 1 through 5 and based on GCA modeling
experience estimated the amount of effort involved in acquiring and preparing
the emission data sets. The labor cost estimates are presented in Appendix A,
first assuming only one load condition, Table A-3a, and next assuming data was
required for three load conditions, Table A-3b. In making the cost estimates
GCA assumed that the emission data would be readily available through industry
and government agencies. Examination of Tables A-3a and A-3b shows that, as
might be expected, the time required to prepare a single-site point source
data set is much less than the time required to prepare an emission data set
for a metropolitan urban area. Part of the added cost is due to increased
amount of time required to verify the emission data files.
Acquisition and Preparation of Meteorological Data
The cost of acquisition and preparation of meteorological data from two
sources:
National Weather Service (NWS) data from the National Climatic
Center (NCC), and
Onsite data, collected as part of the analysis, was determined.
The cost of purchasing hourly NWS meteorological data from NCC is
documented in Table A-4. The cost of wind speed-wind direction stability
category frequency distribution (STAR) data used by climatological models is
presented in Table A-5. The cost of collecting the required data onsite is
addressed in Appendix B. The acquisition and processing costs in Tables A-4,
A-5 and Appendix B for meteorological data are combined in Table A-6. Five
options are analyzed in Table A-6:
NWS 1 year hourly data,
NWS 5 years of hourly data,
one NWS STAR data set 1
five annual NWS STAR data sets, and
onsite meteorological data.
As explained in Appendix B, the equipment costs for the onsite meteorological
data option are amortized over the useful life of the equipment.
Labor and Computer Costs of Selection of Receptor Location and Model Options
The costs involved in locating receptors, determining urban/rural
classification, and selecting model options is addressed in Table A-8. The
labor and computer estimates are based on GCA experience. In Table A-8a to
A-8c the cost of preparing receptor resolution-load condition for the modeling
situations are determined for:
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5 ring (5 km grid) resolution and 1 load condition,
10 rings (1 km grid) resolution and 1 load condition, and
10 rings (1 km grid) resolution and 3 load conditions (or control
strategies).
A cost estimate applicable to emission sets 1, 2 and 3, which are all
point source emission sets, and a cost estimate applicable to emission sets 4
and 5 are made on each table.
Cost of Model Execution
A detailed analysis was made of the following combinations of emission
sets, models and meteorological data:
Run Urban/rural
ID No. Model classification
1 CRSTER
2 CRSTERa
3 CRSTERa
4 MPTER
5 RAM
6 RAM
7 ISC
8 CDM
9 TEM8-A
10 TEM8-A
11 TEM8-A
12 TCM
Rural
Rural
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Meteorology
(surface/upper air)
1977 Cleveland/Buffalo
1977 Cleveland/Buffalo
1977 Cleveland/Buffalo
1977 Cleveland/Buffalo
1977 Cleveland/Buffalo
1977 Columbus/ Patter son
1977 Cleveland/Buffalo
1974 Hartford/Albany
1977 Cleveland/Buffalo
1977 Cleveland/Buffalo
1977 Columbus/Patterson
1974 Hartford/Albany
Emission
data
set
1
2
3
2
1
4
3
5
1
2
4
5
aThis was a run with CRSTER in an attempt to roughly approximate the
source configuration. For Run ID No. 2, this consisted of considering the
30 point sources as 7 collocated clusters. In Run ID No. 3, the 16 sources
were grouped into 4 collocated sources, with the volume and area sources
given the same effective release heights used by ISC.
The input requirements and output option of each model are "listed in Table 2.
10
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Complete runH were made, assuming 5 rings or !> km resolution, cost
permitting. If complete runs were not made, lengthy sensitivity studies were
carried out. The details of GCA's analysis for runs number 1 through 12 are
presented in Appendix C. The results are summarized in Table 3.
The computer costs of a single run as summarized in Table 3 for all 12
model rune were used to make computer budget estimates for each model run
under various levels of input data requirements. Appendix C, Tables C-16a
through C-161, list the number of model runs and computer budget associated
with a given level of data input requirement. The computer budget is equal to
the number of model runs times the cost of CPU time of a run (listed in Table
3) times an "error" factor of 1.2. The error factor is designed to account
for the cost of bad runs that are a part of any modeling exercise.
Labor Costs of Model Execution
The cost in man-hours of running the models was estimated for each model
for six combinations of:
meteorological data,
receptor resolution, and
number of local conditions.
The use of 1 year of meteorological data (NWS or onsite) and 5 years of NWS
meteorological data was considered. The 5 km (or 5 ring) and 1 km (or 10
ring) receptor resolution options were examined. Labor costs assuming one
load condition and three load conditions (or baseline plus two control
strategies) were considered. Cost tables for the six options are presented in
Table C-17a through C-l7f.
Cost of Analysis of Results and Report Preparation
The cost of analyzing the results of a modeling study and writing a
report is examined in Appendix D. Nine combinations of modeling requirements
are considered for point source models (emission sets 1, 2 and 3) in Tables
D-la through D-li. The first option meets the 1978 guideline requirements (1
year of NWS hourly data, 5 rings or 5 km receptor resolution and 1 load
condition) and the eighth and ninth options would meet the requirements of the
1980 proposed revisions (5 years of NWS hourly data or 1 year of onsite hourly
meteorological data, 10 rings or 1 km receptor resolution and three load
conditions). Six options are considered for the urban area data sets
(emission sets 4 and 5). The onsite meteorological data option is not
appropriate for urban area analyses. This eliminates three of the options
considered for emission sets 1, 2, and 3. Also, instead of estimating the
cost of an analysis with three load conditions the cost of analyzing the
results of a baseline plus two control strategy runs is considered. Tables
D-lj through D-lo are used in cost estimates of analyses using emission set 4
12
-------
TABLE 3. COMPUTER COSTS OF A 1 YEAR SIMULATION OF SO, AND TSP AIR QUALITY
IMPACTS ASSUMING A 5 KILOMETER OR 5 RING RECEPTOR RESOLUTION. IN
THE CASE OF GRID MODELS, COMPUTER COSTS ARE BASED ON THE USE OF A
RECEPTOR ARRAY WITH EQUIVALENT COVERAGE AND THE SAME NUMBER OF
RECEPTORS (180) AS CIRCULAR FORMAT MODELS.
Emission
set
1
1
1
2
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
Run
No.
1
5
9
2
4
10
3
7
6
11
8
12
Model
CRSTER
RAMb
TEM8-Ad>e
CRSTERf
MPTERb
TtM8-Ad>e
CRSTER
ISC
RAMb
TEM8-Ad>e
CDMd
TQld
Compute)
CPU
(sec)
76.82
565. 65C
93.28
40.83
5,051.62C
931.00C
78.43
2,190.168
1,859.70C
471.00C
513. 45C
10.00C
r costa
Cost
(dollars)
65.05
527. 44C
105.55
34.26
5,314.79C
1,053. 00C
65.79
2,956.098
1,737.06C
533. 00C
418. 42C
10.00C
Computer
reference
table
C-l
C-4
C-10
C-l
C-2
C-12
C-l
C-7
C-5
C-13
C-9
C-14
aComputer costs are based on an IBM 3033N. The cost formula
used, as well as a comparison of the IBM 3033N to other commonly
used computers, is presented in Appendix I. Also, the computer
costs are based on a single run. In some cases both pollutants
can be modeled in a single run.
bOnly one pollutant can be modeled per run but it was assumed
that results for the other can be determined by scaling source
contribution output tables.
cEstimated data, see Appendix C for method of estimation.
dBoth pollutants can be simulated in one run.
eTEM8-A at present does not calculate 3-hour averages. In
estimating the computer budget, GCA assumed that the cost of an
additional averaging period would be minimal.
modeling situation would require 7 CRSTER runs per pollu
tant for a complete 1 year simulation.
SThis is the average cost of a single run taking into account
that a TSP run (one averaging period) will cost slightly less
than an S02 run (two averaging periods).
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
13
-------
and Tables D-lp through D-lu are cost estimate tables for emission set 5
analyses. Emission set 5 is applied to studies involving the use of STAR data.
COST ESTIMATES OF AIR QUALITY MODELING ANALYSES
The total cost of an air quality modeling analysis of TSP and SC>2 is
arrived at by combining cost estimates of the following:
Acquisition and preparation of emission data, Tables A-3:
one load condition
three load conditions or baseline plus control strategies
Analysis and preparation of meteorological data, Tables A-6:
1 year NWS hourly data,
5 years NWS hourly data,
1 NWS STAR data set
5 annual NWS STAR data sets, and
- onsite hourly data.
Labor and computer cost of selection of receptor locations and model
options, Tables A-8:
assuming 5 rings (or 5 km) resolution, and
assuming 10 rings (or 1 km) resolution.
Computer cost of model execution, Table C-16
- for various levels of meteorological, emission and receptor
resolution requirements
Labor cost of model execution, Tables C-17:
- 1 year NWS or 1 year onsite data, 5 rings or 5 km receptor
resolution, and one load condition,
5 years NWS data, 5 rings or 5 km receptor resolution, and 1
load condition,
1 year NWS or 1 year onsite data, 10 rings or 1 km receptor
resolution, and 1 load condition,
- 5 years NWS data, 10 rings or 1 km receptor resolution, and 1
load condition,
14
-------
1 year NWS or 1 year onsite data, 10 rings or 1 km receptor
resolution, and 3 load conditions or baseline plus 2 control
strategies, and
5 years NWS data, 10 ringK or 1 km receptor resolution, and 3
load conditions or baseline plus 2 control strategies.
Cost estimate for analysis of results and report preparation.
are three sets of cost tables:
There
Tables D-la through D-li, applicable to emission sets 1, 2, and
3 for 9 combinations of meteorological data, receptor
resolution and load conditions.
Tables D-lj through D-lo, applicable to emission set 4,
short-term averaging models, for 9 combinations of
meteorological data, receptor resolution, and load conditions.
Tables D-lp through D-lu, applicable to emission set 5,
long-term averaging models, for 6 combinations of
meteorological data, receptor resolution and load conditions-
The cost estimates for air quality analyses arrived at by combining costs
from the sets of Tables listed above are presented in Tables E-l through E-12
as follows:
Table
No.
E-l
E-2
E-3
E-4
E-5
E-6
E-7
E-8
E-9
E-10
E-ll
E-12
Model
CRSTER
CRSTER
CRSTER
MPTER
RAM
RAM
ISC
CDM
TEM8A
TEM8A
TEM8A
TCM
No. of air quality
Emission modeling requirements
set combinations considered
1
2
3
2
1
4
3
5
1
2
4
5
9
9
9
9
9
6
9
6
9
9
6
6
In addition to a total cost estimate, a "call" value (the total cost
rounded to three significant figures) is presented in each of the Tables in
Appendix E. The "call" values, which more accurately reflect the precision of
the cost estimates, will be referred to in the following Sections.
15
-------
COST ESTIMATES OP AIR QUALITY MODELING ANALYSES
USING HIWAY2 VERSUS CALINE3
The cost of modeling air quality impacts near roadways with HIWAY2 or
CALINK3 was examined. The urban Intersection example In the CAL1NE3 users
manual, a 4-way intersection, was used by GCA as the basis for estimating air
quality costs. The CALINE3 example was run using CALINE3 and HIWAY2. GCA
found the model execution costs for the example run to be:
CALINE3 HIWAY2
CPU
(sec)
Cost
(1980 $)
CPU
(sec)
Cost
(1980 3)
0.11 0.09 0.32 0.25
Based on the experience gained from running this example and past GCA
experiences in line source modeling, cost tables for a complete modeling
exercise were constructed. GCA assumed that 10 intersections were to be
analyzed and impacts were presented for 1982 and 1987. The HIWAY2 and CALINE3
cost estimates are shown in Tables 4 and 5. A "Call" value (cost estimate
rounded to three significant figures) is presented in both Tables. As can be
seen, the cost for the modeling analysis is essentially the same for the two
models.
16
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SECTION 3
SENSITIVITY OF MODELING COSTS TO LEVEL OF
DATA INPUT AND MODEL COST COMPARISONS
As discussed in Section 2, the cost of tasks involved in an SC>2 and TSP
air quality modeling analysis under 12 modeling situations-model combinations
were addressed in Appendices A through D and combined into cost estimates of a
complete air quality analy-sis in Appendix E. The cost estimates were derived
for various levels of data input, enabling a series of modeling study cost
estimates to be made in Appendix E for each modeling situation-model
combination. "Call" values (total cost estimate rounded to three significant
figures) provided in each Table in Appendix E are used in this Section. The
cost estimates in Appendix E will be used to assess the following:
sensitivity of modeling costs to the level of data input, and
comparative cost of air quality model analyses performed for the
same modeling situation and with the same level of data input but
using different models.
SENSITIVITY OF MODELING COST TO LEVEL OF DATA INPUT
There are six model situations-model combinations recommended in the 1980
proposed AQMG:
single-source, ruralCRSTER,
single-source, urbanRAM,
multi-point source, ruralMPTER,
industrial complexISC,
point and area multi-source, urban, RAM, and
point and area multi-source, urban areaCDM.
In Tables 6a through 6f, the cost of a TSP and S02 air quality modeling
analysis is summarized for the six model situation-model combination assuming
the following levels of data input:
-------
TABLE 6a. THE SENSITIVITY OF TSP AND S02 AIR QUALITY MODELING
COSTS TO THE LEVEL OF DATA INPUT. A BREAKDOWN OF
THE COST FIGURES IN THIS TABLE IS PRESENTED IN
APPENDIX E
Model: CRSTER
Modeling Situation: Single-source, rural
Level of data input
Modeling costs
Total
(dollars) Relative
Base Case (1978 AQMG):
1 year NWS met data 11,600 1.0
5 rings or 5 kilometer grid
1 load
Alternative 1:
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 16,000 1.4
Alternative 2:
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 23,300 2.0
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
Alternative 3 (1980 proposed AOMG):
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 27,100 2.3
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
3 loads
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
20
-------
TABLE 6b (continued)
Model: RAM
Modeling Situation: Single-source, urban
Level of data input
Modeling costs
Total
(dollars) Relative
Base Case (1978 AQMG):
1 year NWS met data 12,200 1.0
5 rings or 5 kilometer grid
1 load
Alternative 1:
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 18,500 1.5
Alternative 2:
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 28,200 2.3
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
Alternative 3 (1980 proposed AQMG):
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 34,000 2.8
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
3 loads
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
21
-------
TABLE 6c (continued)
Model: MPTER
Modeling Situation: Multi-point source, rural
Level of data input
Modeling costs
Total
(dollars) Relative
Base Case (1978 AQMG):
1 year NWS met data 18,900 1.0
5 rings or 5 kilometer grid
1 load
Alternative 1:
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 48,200 2.6
Alternative 2:
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 86,700 4.6
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
Alternative 3 (1980 proposed AQMG):
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 115,800 6.1
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
3 loads
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
22
-------
TABLE 6d (continued)
Model: ISC
Modeling Situation: Industrial complex
Level of data input
Modeling costs
Total
(dollars) Relative
Base Case (1978 AQMG):
1 year NWS met data 19,300 1.0
5 rings or 5 kilometer grid
1 load
Alternative 1:
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 51,500 2.7
Alternative 2:
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 93,400 4.8
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
Alternative 3 (1980 proposed AOMG):
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data 125,500 6.5
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
3 loads
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
23
-------
Moch-l: RAM
Modeling Situation:
TABLE 6e (continued)
Point and area multi-source
Level of data input
Modeling costs
Total
(dollars) Relative
Base Case (1978 AQMG):
1 year NWS met data
5 rings or 5 kilometer grid
1 load
Alternative 1;
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data
Alternative 2:
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
Alternative 3 (1980 proposed AQMG):
5 years NWS versus 1 year NWS met data
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
1 baseline plus two control strategies
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
19,600
1.0
31,500
50,100
1.6
2.6
68,000
3.5
24
-------
TABLE 6f (continued)
Model: CDM
Modeling Situation: Point and area multi-source
Level of data input
Modeling costs
Total
(dollars) Relative
Base Case (1978 AQMG):
1 NWS STAR met data set
5 rings or 5 kilometer grid
1 load
14,200
1.0
Alternative 1;
5 annual NWS STAR versus 1 NWS STAR
met data set
21,900
1.5
Alternative 2;
5 annual NWS STAR versus 1 NWS STAR 27,200
met data set
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
Alternative 3 (1980 proposed AQMG):
5 annual NWS STAR versus 1 NWS STAR 33,200
met data set
10 rings/1 kilometer versus 5 rings/
5 kilometers
1 baseline plus two control strategies
1.9
2.3
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
25
-------
a base case (1978 AQMG) with 1 year of NWS meteorological hourly
data (or 1 NWS STAR data set), 5 rings (or 5 kilometer grid
resolution), and 1 load condition,
alternative 1 with 5 years of NWS hourly data (or 5 annual NWS STAR
data sets) and with all other input requirements the same as in the
base case,
alternative 2 with 5 years of NWS hourly data (or 5 annual NWS STAR
data sets), 10 rings (or 1 kilometer grid resolution) and 1 load
condition, and
alternative 3 (1980 proposed AQMG) with 5 years of NWS hourly data
(or 5 annual NWS STAR data sets), 10 rings (or 1 kilometer grid
resolution) and three load conditions or a baseline plus 2 control
strategies.
The base case data input assumptions would satisfy the 1978 AQMG. Each
alternative requires greater amounts of data input with the last alternative's
level of data input satisfying the 1980 proposed AQMG. By showing the
modeling analysis costs and relative cost with respect to the base case,
Table 6 shows the incremental costs associated with the several requirements
for increased data input.
Examination of Table 6 shows the following:
Relative increase
in cost of base case
(1978 AQMG) versus
alternative 3
Modeling situation-model (1980 proposed AQMG)
Single-source, ruralCRSTER 2.3
Single-source, urbanRAM 2.8
Multi-point source, ruralMPTER 6.1
Industrial complexISC 6.5
Point and area multi-source, 3.5
urbanRAM
Point and area multi-source, 2.3
urban areaCDM
As will become clearer in. the next section, the principal reason for the
much higher relative increase in costs for MPTER and ISC compared to CRSTER is
that these two models have a much higher base case computer budget. Thus, a
similar proportional increase in computer budgets has a much greater inpact on
relative total costs for these models.
26
-------
MODEL COST COMPARISONS
Costs were assessed in the following situations for two or more air
quality models:
Modeling situation Air quality model
Single-source, rural CRSTER and TEM8-A
Multi-point source, rural MPTER, CRSTER and TEM8-A
Single-source, urban RAM and CRSTER
Industrial complex ISC and CRSTER
Point and area multi-source, RAM and TEM8-A
urban
Point and area multi-source, CDM and TCM
urban area
Line source, roadway intersection CALINE3 and HIWAY2
Based on Appendix E and Section 2, the cost of an air quality analysis
under the 1978 AQMG and the 1980 proposed AOMG (see discussion on page 4) are
presented in Tables 7 through 10 as follows:
Table 7, the 1978 AOMG is followed and NWS meteorological data is
used,
Table 8, the 1978 AQMG is followed and onsite meteorological data is
used,
Table 9, the 1980 proposed AQMG is followed and NWS meteorological
data is used, and
Table 10, the 1980 proposed AOMG is followed and onsite
meteorological data is used.
The costs of model analysis presented in Tables 7 through 10 are
regrouped by modeling situation in Table 11. Examination of Table 11 reveals
the following:
When the cost of data acquisition is included, the use of 1 year of
onsite meteorological data increases the cost under the 1978 AQMG's
by a factor of 4 to 7 depending on the model application. For the
most part, the increased costs are directly related to the data
collection effort. Under the 1980 proposed revisions, which require
5 years of NWS data, there is an offsetting savings in computer
costs when 1 year of onsite meteorological data is used instead.
(See Tables 9 and 10).
27
-------
TABLE 7. COST OF AN S02 AND TSP AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS PERFORMED
FOLLOWING THE 1978 AQMG AND USING 1 YEAR OF NWS
METEOROLOGICAL DATA. A 5 RING OR 5 KILOMETER GRID RECEPTOR
RESOLUTION AND 1 LOAD CONDITION ARE ASSUMED.
Air quality analysis
costs (dollars)
Model
CRSTER
CRSTER
CRSTER
MPTERC
RAMC
RAMC
ISC
COM
TEM8-A
TEM8-A
TEM8-A
TCM
l!IWAY2d
CALINE3d
Run
number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Modeling situation
Rural/urban, single source
Rural, multi-source
Rural, industrial complex
Rural, multi-source
Urban, single source
Urban area multi-source
Rural, industrial complex
Urban area multi-source
Rural, single source
Rural, multi-source
Urban area multi-source
Urban area multi-source
Line source, roadway
intersection
Line source, roadway
intersection
Computer
budget3
160
580
160
6,380
630
2,080
7,090
500
130
1,260
640
10
20
10
Total cost
of studyb
11,600
13,800
12,400
18,900
12,200
19,600
19,300
14,200
11,600
13,800
18,100
13,700
6,300
6,300
aSee Table C-16 in Appendix C for details-
bSee Appendix E for detailed cost breakdown by task.
clt is assumed that only one pollutant is modeled and results for the
other are obtained by scaling the source contribution tables.
dThese are CO line source models.
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
28
-------
TABLE 8. COST OF AN S02 AND TSP AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS PERFORMED
FOLLOWING THE 1978 AQMG AND USING 1 YEAR OF ONSITE
METEOROLOGICAL DATA. A 5 RING OR 5 KILOMETER GRID RECEPTOR
RESOLUTION AND 1 LOAD CONDITION ARE ASSUMED.
Air quality analysis
costs (dollars)
Model3
CRSTER
CRSTER
CRSTER
MPTERd
RAMd
ISC
TEM8-A
TEM8-A
Run
number
1
2
3
4
5
7
9
10
Modeling situation
Rural /urban, single source
Rural,
Rural ,
Rural,
Urban,
Rural ,
Rural,
Rural,
multi-source
industrial complex
multi-source
single source
industrial complex
single source
multi-source
Computer
budgetb
160
580
190
6,380
630
7,090
130
1,260
Total cost
of studyc
75,400
79,100
77,700
84,200
77,500
84,600
76,900
79,100
alt is not appropriate to use onsite data for the multi-source urban
modeling situations considered by RAM, TEM8-A, COM and TCM.
bSee Table C-16 in Appendix C for details-
cSee Appendix E for a detailed cost breakdown by task. These figures
include the cost of data acquisition for the onsite meteorological data.
Is assumed that only one pollutant is modeled and results for the
other are obtained by scaling the source contribution tables.
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
29
-------
TABLE 9. COST OF AN S02 AND TSP AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS PERFORMED
FOLLOWING THE 1980 PROPOSED AQMG AND USING 5 YEARS OF NWS
METEOROLOGICAL DATA. A 10 RING OR 1 KILOMETER GRID
RECEPTOR RESOLUTION and 3 LOAD CONDITIONS ARE ASSUMED,
EXCEPT WHERE NOTED.
Air quality analysis
costs (dollars)
Model
CRSTER
CRSTER
CRSTER
MPTER
RAM
RAMC
ISC
CDMc»d
TEM8-A
TEM8-A
TEM8-AC
TCHC.d
Run
number
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Modeling situation
Rural/urban, single source
Rural, multi-source
Rural, industrial complex
Rural, multi-source
Urban, single source
Urban area multi-source
Rural, industrial complex
Urban area multi-source
Rural, single source
Rural, multi-source
Urban area multi-source
Urban area multi-source
Computer
budget3
2,190
2,140
2,210
89,290
8,860
20,840
99,320
5,020
1,770
17,690
6,400
110
Total cost
of studyb
27,100
29,800
28,400
115,800
34,000
50,100
125,500
27,200
26,700
44,200
35,700
22,300
aSee Appendix C, Table C-16, for details.
^See Appendix C for cost breakdown by Task.
C0ne load condition assumed; all other modeling cost estimates assume
three load conditions.
^Meteorological data consists of 5 annual NWS STAR data sets.
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
30
-------
TABLE 10. COST OF AN S02 AND TSP AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS PERFORMED FOLLOWING
THE 1980 PROPOSED AQMG AND USING 1 YEAR OF ONSITE METEOROLOGICAL
DATA. A 10 RING OR 1 KILOMETER GRID RESOLUTION AND THREE LOAD
CONDITIONS ARE ASSUMED EXCEPT WHERE NOTED.
Air quality analysis costs
(dollars)
Run
Model3 number
CRSTER
CRSTER
CRSTER
MPTER
RAM
ISC
TEM8A
TEM8A
1
2
3
4
5
7
9
10
Modeling situation
Rural/Urban, single source
Rural,
Rural,
Rural,
Urban,
Rural,
Rural,
Rural,
multisource
industrial complex
multisource
single source
industrial complex
single source
multisource
Computer
budgetb
1,080
1,480
950
38,270
3,800
42,570
760
7,580
Total cost
of study0
88,100
91,000
89,300
126,900
91,100
131,100
87,900
96,200
alt is not appropriate to use onsite meteorological data for the multisource
modeling situations considered by RAM, TEM8-A, COM, and TCM.
t>Seu Appendix C, Table C-16 for details. These figures include the cost of
data acquisition for the onsite meteorological data.
cSee Appendix E for cost breakdown by task.
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
31
-------
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Single source studies using CRSTER and TEM8-A are generally about
the same in cost.
Cost of the air quality study using MPTER increases by a factor of 6
under the proposed revisions to the AQMG. The principal component
of the cost increase is an increase in computer costs. (See Tables
7 and 9).
Under the proposed revisions to the AQMG, the cost of a rural
multi-source air quality modeling analysis using TEM8-A is about 38
percent of the cost of the same analysis with MPTER. Virtually all
the cost savings are in computer costs.
An urban single-source analysis under the 1980 proposed AQMG (see
Table 9) is 25 percent more expensive if RAM is used instead of
CRSTER. Virtually all the difference is in computer costs.
An industrial complex air quality analysis performed under the 1980
proposed AQMG is more than 4.4 times as expensive if ISC is used
Instead of CRSTER. However, the CRSTER analysis involves
simplifying assumptions which will not always be appropriate.
An urban area multi-source analysis under the 1980 proposed AQMG is
29 percent less if TEM8-A is used rather than RAM. All the savings
are in computer costs.
Under the 1980 proposed revisions, an urban area modeling analysis
using TCM costs almost 20 percent less than the same analysis using
CDM.
The most dramatic increases in costs for the 1980 proposed revisions
occur for MPTER and ISC. In both cases, the increase in computer
costs account for over 85 percent of the total cost increase.
The cost of a urban area analysis using RAM is most probably
underestimated since a relatively small emission data set (12 point
sources and 15 area sources) was assumed.
33
-------
SECTION 4
TYPICAL COST OF APPLYING AIR QUALITY MODELS
The following models are either recommended for use in the 1980 proposed
revision to the AQMG or under consideration for recommendation:
CRSTER, CDM, SHORT Z,
MPTER, HIWAY2, LONG Z,
RAM, CALINE3, MESOPUFF, and
ISC, BLP, MESOGRID.
In Section 2, GCA derived detailed air quality analysis cost estimates
for CRSTER, MPTER, RAM, ISC, HIWAY2, and CALINE3. The cost of using the
remaining models was assessed based on information provided by the model
developers and users. The results of the study are presented in Appendix F,
along with the cost of typical applications.
Briefly, costs for the new models are based on the following assumptions:
in the case of BLP, a source configuration of 6 line sources and 20
point sources with 360 receptors and 1 year of onsite data are
assumed,
in the case of SHORT Z, a site in complex terrain with 20 sources is
assumed, 10 worst case days selected by screening 1 year of onsite
data will be simulated and there would be approximately 360
receptors,
for LONG Z, the source configuration would be the same as for SHORT
Z, an NWS STAR data set would be used, and there would be
approximately 360 receptors,
for MESOPUFF, a representative modeling situation consists of 10
point sources over a region, four 4-day simulations would be run and
there would be a 26 by 26 receptor array, and
for MESOPUFF, a regional emission data set of 40 point sources are
assumed, four 4-day simulations would be performed and there would
be a 51 by 51 receptor grid.
34
-------
Table 12 presents a listing of modeling situations and recommended (or
proposed recommended) models. Next to each recommended model, the modeling
requirements, based on the 1980 proposed revisions, are listed. Making use of
the cost estimates in Appendices E and F, the computer costs and total cost of
an air quality modeling analysis were determined and are listed in Table 12.
The "call" values (total cost estimate rounded to three significant figures)
provided In each total cost estimate Table in Appendices E and F are used in
Table 12.
35
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SECTION 5
COST OF A DEMONSTRATION STUDY OF
NONGUIDELINE MODELS
In order for the use of a nonguideline model to be approved, the 1980
proposed AQMG revisions would require that some comparative study of the model
be performed. Such a study would consist of the following:
presentation of model theory,
collection of air quality data in a field study (or use of an
existing data base),
model execution,
comparison of model results to field study data, and
analysis of results and preparation of a report.
The cost of three field study options was considered for an isolated
source in a shallow valley. The following assumptions were made for each
option:
Onsite Field Study It was assumed that a 4-month data collecting
effort was undertaken. Meteorological data (wind speed, wind
direction, temperature and vertical wind fluctuations) were recorded
continuously at one site. S02 and TSP were measured at 15 key
locations within 15 kilometers of the facility.
Tracer StudyIt was assumed that tracer studies were conducted
during each season of the year. There was one test period per
season consisting of three releases. Three meteorological stations
were required and there were 25 ground receptors. During test
periods, the concentrations across the tracer plume were measured
with an aircraft.
Offsite StudyIt was assumed that the field study data had already
been collected at a different location and were available on tape.
This option requires the modeler to demonstrate that the different
location and the actual location are similar.
38
-------
The details of the cost analysis are presented in Appendix G. The major
rout components and the total cost of the three options are listed below.
COST OF A DEMONSTRATION STUDY (1980 Dollars)
Major activities
Collecting meteorological data
Collecting air quality data
Performing tracer study
Computer costs - model execution
Onsite
field study
34,550
210,670
2,750
Tracer
study
99,190
550,000
2,750
Offsite
field study
4,390a
2,750
Total costb 285,600 689,600 46,300
aThis includes cost of acquiring offsite meteorological and air quality data.
total cost refers to the "call" values (total cost rounded to three
significant figures) in Appendix G.
As expected, collection of onsite data adds greatly to the cost of an
analysis. Collecting air quality data at 15 sites increases the study cost by
about $200,000. A tracer study, which requires three meteorological stations
operating for 1 year, as well as four 2-week tracer tests, costs on the order
of $700,000.
39
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SECTION 6
NATIONWIDE IMPACT OF PROPOSED AQMG REVISIONS
ON PSD AND SIP MODELING
In Section 3 the cost of a TSP and S02 air quality analysis for a wide
range of modeling situations was derived. Cost estimates of an analysis were
made for studies using NWS meteorological data first assuming the 1978 AQMG
was followed, and next assuming the 1980 proposed revisions were followed.
The cost estimates were presented in Tables 7 and 9. In this section the cost
figures in Tables 7 and 9 will be used to estimate the nationwide impact of
the proposed AQMG revisions. The intent of this exercise is to gain a general
Indication of the magnitude of the potential cost impacts associated with
imposing the 1980 proposed AQMG.
NATIONWIDE IMPACT OF PROPOSED AQMG REVISIONS ON SIP MODELING
The number of S02 and TSP SIP revisions in an average year are broken
down by modeling situation in Tables 13 and 14. The data in these tables were
used to estimate the number and type of model applications in an average
year. In Table 15, the SIP revisions presented in Tables 13 and 14 are
grouped by the model that would probably be used for each situation based on
the 1980 proposed revision to the AQMG.
The cost estimates in Tables 7 and 9 were applied to the model
distribution in Table 15 to determine the cost impact of the proposed
revision. The cost estimates derived in Section 3 were made assuming both
S02 and TSP were being modeled. Since TSP and S02 are addressed
separately in Table 15, the values in Tables 7 and 9 were not applied
directly. First, in order to get a better estimate for a single pollutant
analysis, the computer costs were cut in half for the CRSTER and ISC modeling
studies (CRSTER and ISC model TSP and S02 separately). Modeling a single
pollutant would also reduce the technical effort. Therefore, based on GCA
experience, labor costs were reduced by 20 percent. The resulting nationwide
cost estimate for TSP and S02 SIP revision modeling is presented in Table 16
for data input levels that satisfy the 1978 AQMG and the 1980 proposed
revisions.
NATIONWIDE IMPACT OF PROPOSED AQMG REVISIONS ON PSD MODELING
There are, as documented in Table 17, approximately 450 PSD permit
applications per year. A distribution by model used was arrived at in
Table 17 based on the model distribution in a 51 permit data base prepared by
TRW. GCA assumed that an S02 and TSP analysis was performed in all cases.
The cost associated with the permit data in Table 17 is presented in Table 18
for data input levels that satisfy the 1978 AQMG and the 1980 proposed
revisions.
40
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TABLE 17. ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF TSP AND S02 PSD
MODELING ANALYSES BY MODEL USED3
S02 and TSP PSD applications
Number Model
180 CRSTER
25 RAM
25 ISC
25 COM
195 SCREENING STUDY
aThere are an average of 450 PSD applications per
year (based on conversations with Jim Weigold,
OAQPS, EPA). The distributions by model are based
on 51 permits from the Clean Air Act Analysis Data
base where relevant modeling data was available.
45
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SECTION 7
THE COMPARATIVE COST OF A SCREENING STUDY
There is a set of easy-to-use Gaussian air quality models designed by EPA
to be used in a screening analysis. The screening models:
PTPLU,
PTDIS, and
PTMTP
predict 1-hour average concentrations for hypothetical meteorological
conditions. If the modeling guidelines for a screening analysis are followed,
conservative estimates of S02 and TSP air quality impacts are arrived at
cheaply and quickly. Sources that obviously will not exceed NAAQS and maximum
allowable PSD increments are spared the costs of a refined modeling study.
The steps involved in a point source screening analysis are as follows:
Acquisition and preparation of emission data for three load
conditions.
Acquisition of emission data from nearby significant sources.
PTPLU is run for three load conditions; it determines maximum
concentration and its downwind distance for a wide range of wind
speed and atmospheric stability combinations.
If there are areas where incremental impacts from sources are being
limited to less than the maximum allowable PSD increment, PTDIS is
run for worst case meteorological conditions to determine the impact
at that location.
If there are significant sources nearby, PTMTP is run for a set of
worst case meteorological conditions to determine maximum
concentrations, including background sources.
The results of the screening study are tabulated and a brief report
is written.
47
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The model execution time of the screening models is minimal. The cost of
typical runs follows:
Computer costs
Model
PTPLU
PTDIS
PTMAX
CPU
(sec)
0.49
0.15
0.20
1980
Dollars
0.40
0.12
0.16
The labor and computer cost estimates, based on GCA experience, for each
of the steps of a screening analysis listed above, are presented in Table 19.
The total cost of an S02, TSP screening analysis compares to the cost
of a refined analysis as follows (all costs are in 1980 dollars):
CRSTER 1 year NWS data $11,600
5 rings
1 load
CRSTER 5 years NWS data $27,100
10 rings
3 loads
SCREENING ANALYSIS $ 4,200
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-------
SECTION 8
COST COMPARISON OF DETERMINING SIP EMISSION
LIMITS FROM MONITORING DATA VERSUS MODELING
Where recommended models are shown to be inapplicable such as in complex
terrain, the 1980 proposed AQMG provides guidelines for determining SIP
emission limits from monitoring data. The following requirements must be met
if a monitoring analysis is undertaken:
One year of ambient data must be collected by the monitoring network,
it must be demonstrated that the design concentration for each
averaging time is representative of the maximum for the whole area,
and
the meteorological conditions must be reviewed to determine whether
the year had normal weather.
In Appendix H, the cost of a 1-year monitoring study for determining
S02 and TSP SIP emission limits for a point source was estimated. It was
assumed that a 15-receptor TSP and SOo network would be required. The end
product of the analysis would be a report that presented design values for TSP
and S02, based on the monitoring data.
The cost of performing an air quality modeling analysis in complex
terrain using SHORTZ was estimated in Appendix F. Since the surrounding
terrain makes use of NWS meteorological data questionable, the cost estimate
was made assuming the SHORTZ analysis would be performed with onsite data. It
is also assumed that a preprocessor program is used to screen the 1-year of
hourly data to select 10 1-day worst case meteorological conditions for
simulation by SHORTZ.
The cost (in 1980 dollars) of a monitoring study and a modeling study
compare as follows:
Cost of TSP and S02 Cost of TSP and
monitoring analysis conplex terrain modeling analysis
$430 K $80 K
50
-------
SECTION 9
COMPARATIVE COST OF BLOCK AVERAGING AND
RUNNING AVERAGING CALCULATIONS
All the EPA recommended short-term averaging models use a block averaging
method; that is, concentrations for each averaging time are computed for
discrete, nonoverlapping time periods for each day. The more conservative way
to compute average concentrations is to calculate running averages; i.e., for
each averaging period the average concentration would be calculated for each
possible continuous averaging time segment over the course of the year.
Averaging periods would overlap each other and the averaging time segments
would not he grouped by day.
There are many more computational steps involved in calculating running
averages, and consequently more computer time would be required per model
run. A running average subroutine was developed by EPA for CRSTER and its use
is an option available to model users. Some testing of its impact on CPU time
was made by EPA; the results of that study were documented in "Supplemental
Information to the User's Manual for Single Source (CRSTER) Model." Use of
the running averaging subroutine was found to increase computer time as
follows:
RATIO INCREASE IN COMPUTER TIME REQUIRED FOR A CRSTER RUN
IF RUNNING AVERAGES ARE COMPUTED
Three-Averaging Periods Two-Averaging Periods One-Averaging Period
(3, 8. 24 hours) (3, 24 hours) (24 hours)
13:1 9:1 4:1
The increased computer costs due to computing running averages were added
to the air quality analysis cost estimates previously given in Tables 9 and 10
For this purpose it was assumed that the computer budget would increase by a
factor of 9. In Table 20 the cost of an air quality analysis computing
running averages, is compared to air quality modeling analysis costs if block
averages were computed. Examination of the cost estimates in Table 20 shows
that running average calculations increases the cost of using MPTER, ISC, and
RAM dramatically. The reason for this is that for these model applications
the computer budget for block averages comprised a significant portion of the
total cost.
51
-------
TABLE 20. COMPARATIVE COST OF TSP AND S02 ANALYSES PERFORMED WITH MODELS
MAKING BLOCK AVERAGING AND RUNNING AVERAGING CALCULATIONS FOR
TWO AVERAGING PERIODS
1980 proposed AQMG
with NWS met. data
1980 proposed AQMG
wJ th onslte data
Modeling situation Model
Block avg. Running avg. Block avg. Running avg
(thousand (chousand (thousand (thousand
dollars) dollars) dollars) dollars)
Rural, single-
source
Rural multisource
Urban single-source
Industrial complex
Urban area
CRSTER
MPTER
RAM
ISC
RAM*
27
116
34
125
50
45
830
105
920
217
88
127
91
131
-
94
360
112
392
-
aOne load condition assumed to be modeled; all other modeling analyses are
performed with three load conditions.
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
52
-------
SECTION 10
COMMENTS ON OTHER AIR QUALITY MODELING
ISSUES OF CONCERN
COST OF MODEL VALIDATION AND EVALUATION STUDY
IN COMPLEX TERRAIN
A detailed model validation and evaluation study in complex terrain would
consist of the following:
setting up and maintaining a meteorological station,
setting up and maintaining an air quality monitoring network
processing the meteorological data into model input format,
reviewing air quality and monitoring data and selecting a range of
meteorological conditions for model comparison,
running model for comparison days,
evaluating model performance,
preparing report.
GCA estimated the cost of performing such a modeling studying assuming
that meteorological station and 15 TSP and S02 monitors were operating near
the facility for 1 year. The air quality and meteorological data would then
be reviewed, and 50 days covering the five highest measured TSP and S02
values, plus a wide range of wind speed-wind direction atmospheric stability
categories would be selected of model comparison. The 50 days would then be
simulated with the air quality model. The model results would be validated
with the monitoring data and a report would be prepared.
The costs of setting up and operating a meteorological network are
documented in Tables B-2 and B-3. The cost of processing the data into the
proper format was addressed in Table B-4. Similarly, the cost for setting up
and maintaining a 15-monitor air quality network has already been discussed
and the cost is documented in Tables G-5 and H-l. The cost of the analysis
and report tasks are documented in Table 21. The total cost for the analysis
is as follows:
53
-------
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Cost
Activity (1980 dollars)
Meteorological Station Material Costs 12,420
Labor Costs of Operating and Maintaining Met. Station 41,990
Process Meteorological Data Into Model Format 7,000
Fifteen TSP and S02 Air Quality Monitors 66,520
Labor Cost of Operating and Maintaining Monitors 344,790
Cost of Analysis and Report Tasks 34,120
Total Cost 506,840
COST OF APPLYING PHOTOCHEMICAL GRID MODELS
Analysis of ozone impacts in an urban area, because of the nature of the
pollutant sources and the complex photochemistry involved, cannot be modeled
with the Gaussian models used for modeling TSP and S02« Photochemical grid
models, which have been specifically designed to treat the transport of ozone
and its precursors and their chemical interaction, are often used instead.
One of the more commonly used photochemical grid models is the SAI Urban
Airshed Model.
In order to obtain a description of a typical Urban Airshed analysis and
its cost, OCA contacted SAI. An application of the photochemical grid model
in order to determine the effectiveness of proposed control strategies on
ozone impacts vrould consist of the following:
Acquisition and reformatting of already existing emission data base
for NOX and Volatile Organic Compounds.
Review of air quality monitoring data to identify a 2- to 3-day
ozone episode for study.
Acquisition of meteorological data for nearby NWS upper air
station(s).
Acquisition of all available surface meteorological data.
Preparation of meteorological wind fields for all vertical layers,
initial conditions and boundary conditions for concentration fields,
and all other model input data fields.
A sensitivity study (approximately 12 model runs).
A validation study (approximately 6 model runs).
A control strategy analysis (approximately 12 model runs).
Preparation of a report.
Each model run would cost approximately $1,000. Therefore, a computer
budget on the order of $30,000 to $35,000 dollars would be needed. The total
cost of the analysis would be:
55
-------
Consulting Firm With Consulting Finn With No
Previous Urban Airshed Experience Previous Urban Airshed Experience
$80,000-$] 2r>,000 $J 60,000-$?. r>0,000
In comparison, an urban area modeling analysis of TSP and S02 with RAM,
for a small urhan area, was estimated to cost $50,000 (see Table 9) under the
1980 proposed AQMG.
56
-------
REFERENCES
1. Environmental Protection Agency. "OAQPS Guideline Series Guideline on
Air Quality Models", EPA-450/2-78-027, Research Triangle Park, NC. April
1978.
2. Environmental Protection Agency. "OAQPS Guideline Series Guideline on
Air Quality Models Proposed Revisions", Research Triangle Park, NC.
October 1980.
3. Environmental Protection Agency. "Summaries and Proposed Recommendations
Concerning Air Quality Models Submitted to Environmental Protection
Agency", Research Triangle Park, NC. October 1980.
57
-------
APPENDIX A
COST ESTIMATES FOR DATA ACQUISITION
AND DATA PROCESSING
In this appendix, the cost of data acquisition and data processing is
addressed. A definition of labor grades is listed in Table A-l.
TABLE A-l. DEFINITION OF LABOR GRADES
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Principal Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
The labor coat associated with 40 hours of each labor grade has been provided
in Section 2. Emission sets 1 through 5 are listed in Tables A-2(a) through
A-2(e). Next, the costs involved in the preparation tasks of an air quality
modeling study are presented as follows:
Tasks Tables
Acquisition and Preparation of Emission Data A-3(a) through A-3(b)
Meteorological Data Acquisition Cost A-4 through A-5
Labor, Materials and Computer Costs for A-6(a) through A-6(e)
Preparing Meteorological Data
Cost of Acquiring UNAMAP Tape A-7
Labor and Computer Cost of Receptor Siting A-8(a) through A-8(c)
The onsite meteorological data costs listed in Table A-6(e) come directly
from Appendix B. The costs presented in Tables A-3, A-6, and A-8 are included
in the total cost of an air quality analysis estimates in Appendix E, the
Appendix from which the cost figures used in the main text originate.
A-l
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TABLE A-2 (continued)
(e) Emission Set 5 - Hartford Urban Area
X
(Km)
690.0
695.0
690.0
695.0
700.0
705.0
700.0
705.0
710.0
715.0
710.0
715.0
720.0
720.0
670.0
675.0
670.0
675.0
680.0
685.0
680.0
685.0
690.0
695.0
690.0
700.0
705.0
700.0
705.0
710.0
710.0
715.0
720.0
675.0
675.0
680.0
685.0
680.0
685.0
690.0
695.0
Y
(Km)
4590.0
4590.0
4595.0
4595.0
4590.0
4590.0
4595.0
4595.0
4590.0
4590.0
4595.0
4595.0
4590.0
4595.0
4600.0
4600.0
4605.0
4605.0
4600.0
4600.0
4605.0
4605.0
4600.0
4600.0
4605.0
4630.0
4630.0
4635.0
4635.0
4630.0
4635.0
4635.0
4635.0
4640.0
4645.0
4640.0
4640.0
4645.0
4645.0
4640.0
4645.0
Width
(Km)
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
S02
Emission
(g/sec)
1.38
1.38
1.38
1.38
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.32
0.18
0.18
2.12
2.12
2.12
2.12
3.04
3.04
3.04
3.04
2.21
2.21
2.21
1.78
1.78
1.78
1.78
5.75
0.28
1.31
0.44
0.96
0.21
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.53
1.95
1.95
Part. Effective
Emission
(g/sec)
1.56
1.56
1.56
1.56
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.09
0.09
3.01
3.01
3.01
3.01
3.51
3.51
3.51
3.51
3.15
3.15
3.15
2.04
2.04
2.04
2.04
6.85
0.20
3.53
1.18
0.64
0.15
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.92
2.03
2.03
height
(m)
25.6
25.6
25.6
25.6
20.9
20.9
20.9
20.9
15.9
15.9
15.9
15.9
14.8
14.8
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.3
30.0
30.0
30.0
30.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
31.5
20.5
22.8
20.5
20.5
20.5
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
31.0
31.0
(continued)
A-6
-------
TABLE A-2 (continued)
(e) Continued
X
(Km)
690.0
695.0
700.0
705.0
700.0
705.0
710.0
710.0
715.0
675.0
685.0
690.0
695.0
700.0
705.0
710.0
695.0
700.0
705.0
700.0
705.0
660.0
665.0
660.0
665.0
670.0
675.0
670.0
675.0
680.0
685.0
680.0
685.0
690.0
695.0
690.0
695.0
700.0
705.0
700.0
705.0
710.0
Y
(Km)
4645.0
4645.0
4640.0
4640.0
4645.0
4645.0
4640.0
4645.0
4640.0
4650.0
4650.0
4650.0
4650.0
4650.0
4650,0
4650.0
4605.0
4600.0
4600.0
4605.0
4605.0
4610.0
4610.0
4615.0
4615.0
4610.0
4610.0
4615.0
4615.0
4610.0
4610.0
4615.0
4615.0
4610.0
4610.0
4615.0
4615.0
4610.0
4610.0
4615.0
4615.0
4610.0
Width
(Km)
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
S02
Emission
(g/sec)
1.95
1.95
1.48
1.48
1.48
1.48
1.05
0.44
0.65
0.21
0.60
0.60
0.60
2.03
1.42
0.61
2.21
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.08
2.01
2.01
2.01
2.01
3.55
3.55
3.55
3.55
6.75
6.75
6.75
6.75
3.24
3.24
3.24
3.24
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.30
0.35
Part. Effective
Emission
(g/sec)
2.03
2.03
1.52
1.52
1.52
1.52
1.19
0.40
1.76
0.15
0.61
0.61
0.61
2.11
1.35
0.44
3.15
0.95
0.95
0.95
0.95
1.21
1.21
1.21
1.21
3.87
3.87
3.87
3.87
4.95
4.95
4.95
4.95
5.28
5.28
5.28
5.28
1.70
1.70
1.70
1.70
0.44
height
(m)
31.0
31.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
20.5
20.5
20.5
12.7
14.8
21.3
21.3
22.4
21.3
20.5
31.0
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
35.3
35.3
35.3
35.3
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
31.0
31.0
31.0
31.0
20.2
(continued)
A- 7
-------
TABLE A-2 (continued)
(e) Continued
X
(Km)
715.0
710.0
715.0
665.0
665.0
670.0
675.0
670.0
675.0
680.0
685.0
680.0
685.0
690.0
695.0
690.0
695.0
700.0
705.0
700.0
705.0
710.0
715.0
710.0
670.0
675.0
670.0
675.0
680.0
685.0
680.0
685.0
690.0
695.0
690.0
695.0
Y
(Km)
4610.0
4615.0
4615.0
4620.0
4625.0
4620.0
4620.0
4625.0
4625.0
4620.0
4620.0
4625.0
4625.0
4620.0
4620.0
4625.0
4625.0
4620.0
4620.0
4625.0
4625.0
4620.0
4620.0
4625.0
4630.0
4630.0
4635.0
4635.0
4630.0
4630.0
4635.0
4635.0
4630.0
4630.0
4635.0
4635.0
Width
(Km)
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
5000.0
S02
Emission
(g/sec)
0.35
0.35
0.35
0.34
0.34
1.12
1.12
1.12
1.12
4.49
4.49
4.49
4.49
12.13
12.13
12.13
12.13
3.85
3.85
3.85
3.85
0.61
0.71
0.61
1.17
1.17
1.17
1.17
1.72
1.72
1.72
1.72
1.88
1.88
1.88
1.88
Part. Effective
Emission height
(g/sec) (m)
0.44
0.44
0.44
0.23
0.23
1.78
1.78
1.78
1.78
5.30
5.30
5.30
5.30
11.85
11.85
11.85
11.85
4.95
4.95
4.95
4.95
0.75
0.82
0.75
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.73
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.62
3.22
3.22
3.22
3.22
20.2
20.2
20.2
18.1
18.1
37.5
37.5
37.5
37.5
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
43.9
37.5
37.5
37.5
37.5
20.2
18.1
20.2
22.4
22.4
22.4
22.4
24.8
24.8
24.8
24.8
24.8
24.8
24.8
24.8
(continued)
A-8
-------
TABLE A-2 (continued)
(e) Continued
X
(Km)
690.9
687.5
696.4
696.4
696.4
696.3
696.3
696.3
696.3
696.3
696.3
683.0
678.2
689.5
689.5
689.5
689.5
689.6
689.6
691.7
691.7
691.7
691.7
711.8
711.8
696.0
703.6
701.9
Y Width
(Km) (Kra)
4636.6
4645.2
4624.4
4624.4
4624.4
4623.4
4623.4
4623.4
4623.4
4623.4
4623.4
4614.5
4615.5
4623.2
4623.2
4623.2
4623.2
4622.6
4639.5
4645.9
4645.9
4645.9
4645.9
4637.7
4637.7
4608.0
4601.3
4603.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
S02
Emission
(g/sec)
1.09
0.00
4.35
3.54
1.76
1.18
1.24
1.96
1.12
2.07
2.27
0.00
2.10
0.72
0.72
0.72
0.72
3.86
5.53
1.61
1.61
1.61
0.92
0.81
1.21
1.53
1.24
46.41
Part.
Emission
(g/sec)
0.12
1.24
0.78
0.63
0.35
0.12
0.12
0.20
0.12
0.20
0.23
0.86
0.20
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
18.48
1.15
0.17
0.17
0.17
0.09
0.09
0.12
0.14
0.12
4.66
Stack Parameters
Height Diameter Velocity
(m) (m) (m/sec)
15.2
3.0
43.3
42.7
43.3
29.3
29.3
29.3
29.3
29.3
29.3
3.0
9.1
53.6
53.6
53.6
53.6
54.9
42.7
17.4
17.4
17.4
12.5
36.6
36.6
12.8
13.7
152.4
0.6
0.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.3
2.3
1.7
0.9
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
3.5
0.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.2
1.7
1.7
1.8
8.4
5.5
9.2
1.6
9.0
10.4
12.4
14.7
14.7
14.7
14.7
18.0
18.0
0.1
9.0
20.1
20.1
20.1
20.1
5.1
80.8
3.4
3.4
3.4
6.7
4.3
4.3
4.9
19.5
29.9
Temp
(°K)
463.7
286.1
488.7
477.6
505.4
577.6
577.6
577.6
577.6
644.3
644.3
294.3
449.8
449.8
449.8
449.8
449.8
477.6
588.7
505.4
505.4
505.4
533.1
519.3
519.3
588.7
422.0
588.7
A-9
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TABLE A-4. COST OF ACQUIRING HOURLY METEOROLOGICAL DATA FROM THE
NATIONAL CLIMATIC CENTER FOR USE IN AIR QUALITY MODELS
Type of
meteorological
data
Surface
Upper air
Total Cost
Readily available data Unprepared data
Cost (dollars) Cost (dollars)
1 Year 5 Years 1 Year
185 185 990
185 185 315
3703 370a 1305
5 Years
4470
630
5100
aData acquisition costs used in the study.
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
A-12
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TABLE A-7. COST INFORMATION ON ACQUISITION OF UNAMAP MODELS
TAPE NAME:
ACCESSION NUMBER:
PRICE
AVAILABLE FROM:
UNAMAP (VERSION 4)
PB 81 164 600
$840
COMPUTER PRODUCTS 703/487-4763
NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22161
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
A-19
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APPENDIX B
COST ESTIMATE FOR COLLECTING AND PROCESSING
1-YEAR OF ONSITE METEOROLOGICAL DATA
In this Appendix, a detailed breakdown of the costs involved in running
and processing data from an onsite meteorological station is presented. GCA
assumed that a 10 meter permanent meteorological tower would be constructed
and that continuous measurements of horizontal and vertical wind speed, wind
direction, precipitation and temperature would be made for 1 year. The
instruments would be connected to an onsite data processor. The measurements
would be averaged over one hour intervals (the vertical wind speed
fluctuations would be converted to Pasquill-Gifford stability category) and
recorded on magnetic tape by the data processor.
GCA contacted Weathermeasure Division of Systron Donner in Sacramento,
California to get an estimate on the cost of materials for a 10 meter
meteorological station with the capability of measuring and recording on
magnetic tape the following:
one hour averaged transport wind speed and direction,
one hour averaged temperature, and
hourly Pasquill-Gifford Stability category (based on the standard
deviation of vertical wind speed fluctuations over a one hour
period).
The cost of the meteorological tower and instruments, data processor, cable
and services are itemized in Table B-l.
The equipment costs listed in Table B-l are combined with the cost of all
additional required materials in Table B-2 to arrive at a total equipment cost
for a 10 meter high meteorological station. If a 100 meter tower was desired
instead, GCA and Weathermeasure estimate that there would be an added expense
of 55,000 dollars for materials and installation.
To arrive at an equipment cost estimate for a 1-year onsite study, the
equipment costs were amortized over the useful life of the equipment. The
annual equipment cost is equal to the cost of the equipment times the capital
recovery factor (CRF). CRF is defined as follows:
CRF = i (1 + i?
(1 + i)D - 1
B-l
-------
TABLE B-l. COST OF METEOROLOGICAL STATION INSTRUMENTS, DATA PROCESSOR
AND ACCESSORIES*
Cost
Description (dollars)
AQM 1 Station A standard 10 meter permanent meteorological tower. 16,900
Features include cup anemometer and wind vane (W2034 series),
thermistor (WMLTX-T), steel frame (WMT1/03), and base plate (667151)
Sensor Accessories
W173-A Propeller Anemometer 300
W173-MA Mast Adapter 40
P511-E Rain/Snow Gauge, Electrically Heated 530
(Substituted for P501-I)
MD173-LC Wind Speed Module 250
Data Acquisition
M10-I/0 Parallel Input/Output Port (M-10 Tape Recorder) 300
M-10 Magnetic Tape Recorder (Kennedy 9832) 11,500
RC19 Cabinet 1,000
RCP/14-EW Recorder Panel 260
REW12V-6 Recorder (Six Point) 2,780
REW2P-12V/12V (Two Pen) 4,950
Cable and Accessories
Sensor Cable, 4 Conductor, 18 AWG 20
Power Cable, Vinyl, Shielded, 3 Conductor, 18 AWG 20
Miscellaneous Extra Cable to Rack From M733 100
WM/TM Cable Terminations 50
Engineering Services
Systems Integration Calibration, Burn-in Special and/or 2,000
Standard Documentation, One Complete Set
TOTAL COST 41,000
*Cost estimates based on information from Weathermeasure Division, Systron
Donner, Sacramento, CA.
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
B-2
-------
TABLE B-2. COST OF EQUIPMENT REQUIRED TO RUN A METEOROLOGICAL
STATION FOR 1 YEAR
Cost
(dollars)
Shelter 8 ft x 14 ft 6,580
Ladder and railing 680
Shipping 500
Power company electrical lines 200
Electrician, 1 day 280
Fence surrounding site 1,300
Tool kit 180
Environ, data 10% strip chart data reduction 850
for quality assurance
Concrete slab 750
Meteorological instruments, computer, 10 meter 41,000
tower
Total Cost 52,320b
Annual Equipment Costa 12,420
aThis value is used in all onsite meteorological equipment cost
estimates in this study. The procedure for calculating the
annual equipment cost is defined in the Appendix B text.
a 100 meter tower were constructed instead of a 10 meter
tower, material and installation costs would add 55,000
dollars to the total equipment costs*
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
B-3
-------
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where: I = interest rate corrected for inflation
and n = useful life of equipment.
CCA calculated tlu> annual equipment cost, assuming a 6 percent inflation
corroded InU-n-Ht rnto and u 5 your iiHc-ful Instrument life. The 5 year
Instrument life Is based upon OCA experience. The annual equipment cost is
presented in Table B-2. This value is used in all onsite meteorological data
collection estimates.
The labor costs involved in running a meteorological station for 1 year
are presented in Table B-3. In arriving at this labor estimate, GCA assumed
the following:
there would be an initial series of meeting and site visits required
to select equipment and arrange for its installation and testing,
it would require two people three weeks to set up and calibrate the
meteorological data collecting system,
there would be three quarterly calibrations by two engineers taking
three days,
there would be a 4-hour routine site visit by one engineer three
times a week,
there would be 12 hours per month of unscheduled maintenance, and
it would take two people one week to shutdown and pack-up the system.
After the onsite surface data has been collected and documented in a
report, the resulting data tape is used to create an hourly surface
meteorological data tape in CRSTER preprocessor format. The tasks involved
and their labor requirements are listed in Table B-4. The material costs
involved in this assignment are presented in Table B-5.
The total cost of collecting and processing one year of onsite
meteorological data is equal to the sum of the costs listed in Tables B-2,
B-3, B-4, and B-5. It equals:
Cost (1980 &) Labor (hrs)
Amortized cost of equipment required to run 12,420
a meteorological station for 1 year
(See Table B-2 and accompanying text)
Labor cost for establishing and running 41,990 1,756
a meteorological station for 1 year
Labor cost for processing onsite data 7,000 328
into CRSTER preprocessor format
B-5
-------
Cost (1980 $) Labor (hrs)
Material and computer cost for processing 1,990
orisite data into CRSTER preprocessor format
Cost of collecting and processing one year 63,400 2,084
of onsite meteorological data
These costs are added to the costs of combining the surface and upper air data
in Appendix A. In Table A-6(e), the total cost of collecting onsite data and
preparing a CRSTER useable meteorological data file is presented. When costs
of one yuar of onsite meteorological data are used in the main text or
Appendix E, they originate from Table A-6(e).
B-6
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TABLE B-5. MATERIAL COST FOR PROCESSING ONSITE
METEOROLOGICAL DATA INTO CRSTER
PREPROCESSOR FORMAT
Cost
Material (1980 dollars)
NWS Hourly Meteorological Data Tape* 990
Computer Time 1,000
1,990
*Hourly surface meteorological data from near-
est NWS site is needed to fill data gaps in
onsite data tape.
B-8
-------
APPENDIX C
COST ESTIMATES FOR MODEL RUNS
This Appendix provides a detailed breakdown of the sensitivity study of
air quality models CPU time to key input parameters. The models are addressed
in the following order:
Model
CRSTER
MPTER
RAM
RAM
ISCST
Figures
-
C-l to C-2
C-3 to C-4
C-5 to C-6
C-7 to C-8
Tables
C-l
C-2 to C-3
C-4
C-5 to C-6
C-7 to C-8
Run
number
1 through 3
4
5
6
7
CDM
C-9
C-9
TEM8A
TEM8A
TEM8A
C-10
C-ll to C-13
C-14 to C-15
C-10 to C-ll
C-12
C-13
TCM
C-16 to C-17 C-14 to C-15
9
10
11
12
The data presented in the above figures and tables were used to construct
the computer cost table, Table 3, in the main text. In Table C-16(a) to
C-16(1), the cost of a single run presented in Table 3 was used to determine
the computer budget for each run ID, assuming various levels of data
requirements. The computer budgets in Table C-16 were used in the total cost
of a modeling anlysis Tables in Appendix E, as well as, in computer budgets
quoted in the main text. All costs are in 1980 dollars.
Labor projections for running the models were made in Tables C-17(a) to
C-17(f) based on GCA experience. The costs in these tables were used in the
total cost of a modeling analysis Tables in Appendix E, and subsequently in
the main text.
C-l
-------
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C-2
-------
1000
900 -
800
700
600-
500
400 -
300 -
200 -
100 -
X- ESTIMATED VALUES
10
ZO 30 40
NUMBER OF RECEPTORS
50
60
70
Figure C-2. Computer cost projections of a 1 year run of MPTER,
run number 4.
C-3
-------
90
80
70
60-
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40-
30-
20-
10-
10
15
20
25
NUMBER OF RECEPTORS
Figure C-3. Results of cost sensitivity study of RAM performed
for run number 5.
C-4
-------
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Figure C-5. Project cost of a 1 year run of RAM for run number 6.
C-6
-------
60
50
40
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10
0
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9 RECEPTORS
4 RECEPTORS
10 15 20
NUMBER OF DAYS
Figure C-6. Results of a cost sensitivity study of RAM
performed for run number 5.
C-7
-------
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NUMBER OF DAYS
Figure C-7. Results of sensitivity study of ISCST for run number 7.
C-8
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NUMBER OF RECEPTORS
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Figure C-9.
Result of sensitivity study for run number 8.
C-10
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16
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12
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ACTUAL DATA
X--X DATA ESTIMATED BY
SAS EQUATION
14.13
12.36
10.59
8.82
7.05
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3.52
I 75
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80 100 160
NUMBER OF RECEPTORS
aoo
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280
Figure C-12. Results of sensitivity study of TEM8A for run 10.
Cost and CPU seconds by number of receptors for
5 days and 2 pollutants.
C-13
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C-18
-------
TABLE C-l. COMPUTER COSTS FOR CRSTER RUNS USING FIVE RECEPTOR
RINGS, 3-HOUR AND 24-HOUR AVERAGING TIMKS
MODEL: CRSTER
MET DATA: Cleveland/Buffalo
DAYS RAN: 365 days
Run
I.D.
1
2*
3
No. of
stacks
3
1
4
Emission
set
1
2
3
CPU
(sec)
76.82
40.83
78.43
Cost
(1980 $)
65.05
34.26
65.79
Cost for S02 and TSP are identical
*This modeling situation would require 7 CRSTER runs,
because there are 7 clusters of point sources. The
cost listed here is for a single run.
C-19
-------
TABLE C-2. RESULTS OF A SENSITIVITY STUDY OF MPTER
FOR RUN NUMBER 4, 3-HOUR AND 24-HOUR
AVERAGING TIMES.
RUN I.D. : 4
MODEL: MPTER
EMISSION SET: 2
MET DATA: Cleveland/Buffalo
Receptor
No.
No. of
days
CPU
(sec)
Cost
(1980 $)
4
4
4
4
4
9
9
9
9
25
25
25
25
36
36
36
36
180
360
20
2
10
100
365
2
10
20
365
2
10
20
365
2
10
20
365
365
365
8.06
1.04
4.07
38.61
136.29
1.51
6.50
12.38
220.46a
4.45
18.00
37.12
664.39C
6.80
27.06
57.33
l,028.20e
5,051.628
10,110.888
8.18
1.09
4.28
40.64
143.46
1.58
6.84
13.04
232.51b
4.68
18.94
39.06
699.09d
7.16
28.48
60.34
1,082.24f
5,314.79h/6272.51i
10,637.39h/10,546.86i
aEstiraated
Estimated
cEstimated
dEstiiuated
Estimated
Estimated
^Estimated
^Estimated
^Estimated
1.844.
from CPU (sec)
from Cost (fc) =
from CPU (sec)
from Cost ($) -
from CPU (sec)
from Cost (fc) =
from CPU (sec)
from Cost (fc) =
from Cost (fc) '
= 0.603 * days + 0.362.
0.636 * days + 0.3695.
= 1.819 * days + 0.454.
' 1.914 * days + 0.475.
= 2.816 * days + 0.357.
= 2.964 * days + 0.378.
= 28.107 * Receptor - 7.645,
29.57 * Receptor - 7.815
= 0.0955 * Receptor * day -
C-20
-------
TABLE C-3. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS OF MPTER SENSITIVITY STUDY
1. Cost increases rapidly with increase in the number of
receptors.
2. Cost varies slightly with location of receptors, that is
for the same number of days and receptors the cost would
vary slightly when the location of the receptor was
changed.
C-21
-------
TABLE C-4. RESULTS OF A SENSITIVITY STUDY OF RAM
FOR RUN NUMBER 5, 3-HOUR AND 24-HOUR
AVERAGING TIME
RUN I.D.: 5
MODEL: RAM
EMISSION SET: 1
MET DATA: Cleveland/Buffalo
Receptor
No.
4
4
4
4
4
4
9
9
9
9
16
16
16
16
25
25
25
25
180
360
No. of
days
2
6
10
50
100
365
2
50
100
365
2
50
100
365
10
50
100
365
365
365
CPU
(sec)
0.32
0.35
0.71
3.00
5.45
17.50
0.45
5.45
10.03
32.99
0.55
7.57
14.56
49.33
2.47
12.42
23.18
84.22a
565. 65C
1,143.03C
Cost
(1980 $)
0.30
0.47
0.66
2.81
5.10
16.36
0.43
5.09
9.38
30.82
0.52
7.08
13.60
46.08
2.31
11.60
21.65
78.64b
527.44d
l,050.05d
Estimated from CPU (sec) = 0.2295 * days + 0.45.
Estimated from Cost ($) = 0.2143 * days + 0.423.
cEstiraated from CPU (sec) = 3.121 * Receptor No.
+ 3.87.
Estimated from Cost (fc) = 2.91 * Receptor No. +
3.64.
C-22
-------
TABLE C-5. RESULTS OF A SENSITIVITY STUDY OF RAM
FOR RUN NUMBER 6, 3-HOUR AND 24-HOUR
AVERAGING TIMES
RUN I.D.: 6
MODEL: RAM
EMISSION SET: 4
MET DATA: Cleveland/Buffalo
Receptor
No.
4
4
4
4
9
9
9
9
25
25
25
25
180
No. of
days
2
10
20
365
2
10
20
365
2
10
20
365
365
CPU
(sec)
3.27
14.75
28.83
518. 59a
3.42
15.89
30.83
555. 87C
4.18
19.43
37.64
678. 41e
1,859.708
Cost
(1980 $)
3.05
13.77
26.92
484. 2 8b
3.20
14.89
28.78
518. 71d
3.90
18.14
35.14
633. 47f
l,737.06h
Estimated CPU from CPU (sec) = 1.4195 * days +
0.4752, 4 Receptors.
Estimated Cost from Cost ($) = 1.3256 * days +
0.43967, 4 Receptors.
Estimated CPU from CPU (sec) = 1.5216 * days +
0.4829, 9 receptors.
Estimated Cost from Cost ($) = 1.4198 * days +
0.4788, 9 Receptors.
Estimated CPU from CPU (sec) = 1.857 * days +
0.605, 25 Receptors.
Estimated Cost from Cost ($) = 1.734 * days +
0.56, 25 Receptors.
8Estimated from CPU (sec) = 7.622 * No. of
Receptors + 487.74, 1 year.
Estimated from Cost ($) = 7.1209 * No. of
Receptors + 455.298, 1 year.
C-23
-------
TABLE C-6. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS OF RAM SENSITIVITY STUDY
1. Cost with respect to number of days is linear.
2. Cost with respect to number of receptors is not clearly a
linear relationship.
3. Cost difference in keeping the same number of receptors
but varying the location is minimal.
4. Cost difference for different averaging times is not
significant.
C-24
-------
TABLE C-7. RESULTS OF A SENSITIVITY STUDY OF ISCST
FOR RUN NUMBER 7 (SHORT-TERM VERSION OF ISC)
RUN I.D. : 7
MODEL: ISCST
EMISSION SET: 3
MET DATA: Cleveland/Buffalo
Receptor
No.
36
36
36
36
36
72
72
72
72
72
108
108
108
108
180
360
No. of
days
4
10
20
30
365
4
10
20
30
365
4
10
20
365
365
365
CPU
(sec)
3.18
8.51
13.80
19.21
198. 42a
5.69
17.08
26.84
37.62
381. 50C
13.33
36.06
65.01
1.168.456
2,037.36g'i
4,461.968
Cost
(1980 $)
4.31
11.50
18.65
25.94
267. 79b
7.70
23.06
36.25
50.79
514. 86d
18.00
48.69
87.75
l,576.84f
2,749.85h»
6,022.25h
Estimated from CPU (sec) = 0.535 * days + 3.14.
Estimated from Cost (fc) = 0.722 * days + 4.256.
Estimated from CPU (sec) = 1.027 * days + 6.64.
Estimated from Cost ($) = 1.386 * days + 8.97.
Estimated from CPU (sec) = 3.196 * days + 1.914.
Estimated from Cost ($) = 4.313 * days + 2.598.
^Estimated from CPU (sec) = 13.47 * Receptor No.
- 387.24.
^Estimated from Cost ($) = 18.18 * Receptor No. -
522.55.
Calculating 3-hour, as well as 24-hour average con-
centrations increases cost by a factor of 1.15.
C-25
-------
TABLE C-8. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS OF ISCST (SHORT-TERM
VERSION OF ISC) SENSITIVITY STUDY
1. Calculating 3-hour averages at the same time as 24-hour
averages results in an incease in cost by a factor of 1.15.
2. Use of daily tables option is very expensive. For
example, one of the sensitivity runs cost $12.35 with daily
tables and $4.31 without.
3. Coats increase dramatically with the number of days
simulated.
TABLE C-9. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY STUDY
OF COM, RUN NUMBER 8
RUN I.D.: 8
MODEL: COM
EMISSION SET: 5
MET DATA: Hartford/Albany
Receptor
No.
4
9
16
25
180
360
CPU
(sec)
11.09
23.73
45.01
70.55
513. 45a
l,027.89a
Cost
(1980 $)
9.04
19.34
36.68
57.49
418. 42b
837.64b
Days
365
365
365
365
365
365
Estimated from CPU (sec) = 2.858 * Receptor
No. - 0.9916.
Estimated from Cost (fc) = 2.329 * Receptor
No. - 0.804.
C-26
-------
TABLE C-10. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY STUDY OF TEM8-A
FOR RUN NUMBER 9
RUN I.D.: 9
MODEL: TEM8-A
EMISSION SET: 1
MET DATA: 1977 Cleveland/Buffalo
No. of
receptors
No. of
days
No. of
pollutants
CPU
(sec)
Cost
(1980 $)
Actual Data
36 10 1 1.04 1.20
36 10 2 1.30 1.50
36 365 1 37.98 43.00
441 5 1 2.67 3.04
441 5 2 2.92 3.32
441 365 1 187.66 212.39
441 365 2 191.95 217.25
Estimated Data3
180
360
180
360
365
365
365
365
1
1
2
2
91.20
157.72
93.28
161.33
103.19
178.43
105.55
182.51
aFor one pollutant and 365 days, estimates are
derived from linear interpolation of data for
actual runs (36 and 441 receptors, for 365 days)
CPU (sec) = 24.675 + 0.36958 * R
Cost (fc) = 27.95 *- 0.418 * R
where: R = number of receptors.
Execution time increases only slightly when two
pollutants are processed instead of one pollutant (see
actual data). A scaling factor of 1.02 was used to
arrive at the estimated 2 pollutant values.
C-27
-------
TABLE C-ll. SUMMARY OF FINDINGS OF TEM8-A SENSITIVITY STUDY
FOR RUN NUMBER 9
1. Coat is directly proportional to number of print sources
in input set.
2. The placement of receptor affects the costs. TEM8-A uses
the meteorological data for each day to isolate those
receptors at which concentrations may be measured that day;
only these receptors are dealt with in the calculations.
Therefore, both the distance and the direction of the
receptors from the point sources will affect the cost of
the runs. (For runs listed in the above table, the
furthest receptors were placed at a distance of approxi-
mately 5 kilometers from the sources in each direction.)
3. Only 24-hour averaging times can be computed when a year
of hourly meteorological data is input.
4. The automatic grid selection option cannot be chosen when
a year of hourly met data is input.
5. Emissions for a second pollutant were added to Emission
Set 1 for indicated runs. (Two pollutants can be
processed in one run.)
6. Printing daily arrays of concentrations at each receptor
in grid adds only minimally to cost.
C-28
-------
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C-30
-------
TABLE C-13. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY STUDY OF TEM8-A
FOR RUN 11
RUN I.D.: 11
MODEL: TEM8-A
EMISSION SET: IV
MET DATA: 1977 Columbus/Patterson
Receptor No. of CPU Cost
No. days (sec)a (fc)a
Actual Data
4 5 1.84 2.11
4 20 6.48 7.35
4 365 116.68 132.06
9 5 2.01 2.30
25 5 2.31 2.64
25 20 8.38 9.50
28 5 2.47 2.82
36 26 15.21 17.23
228 5 8.61 9.77
228 26 40.94 46.35
Estimated Datab
25
36
180
228
360
365
365
365
365
365
159
181
471
568
834
180
205
533
642
943
aCost (fc) = 0.023 + 1.1316 * CPU (sec)
CPU (sec) = - 0.02 + 0.8841 * Cost ($)
"Estimates were made as follows:
CPU (sec) = 0.365 + 0.296759 * D + 0.00179 * R +
0.005512 * D * R
Cost (fc) = 0.4356 + 0.335823 * D + 0.002057 * R +
0.006236 * D * R
where: D = number of days and R = number of receptors
Or, for 365 days: CPU (sec) = 108.68 + 2.0137 * R
Cost ($) = 123.01 + 2.2782 * R
Equations were generated by the general linear model
program of the SAS statistical package.
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
C-31
-------
TABLE C-14. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY STUDY OF TCM
FOR RUN 12
RUN I.D.: 12
MODEL: TCM
EMISSION SET: 5
DATA: 1974 Hartford/Albany
Receptor
Receptor spacing No. of CPU Cost
No. (km) pollutants (sec) ($)
Actual Data
95 1 3.51 3.12
64 5 1 4.58 4.06
100 5 1 5.02 4.45
95 2 6.62 5.58
25 5 2 7.64 6.78
64 5 2 8.55 7.59
100 5 2 9.10 8.08
91 1 4.05 3.60
25 1 1 4.16 3.70
64 1 1 6.80 6.04
91 2 7.84 6.96
25 1 2 7.98 7.08
64 1 2 13.09 11.61
200 1 2 19.18 17.00
Estimated Data3
180
180
360
360
5
5
1
1
1
2
1
2
6
10
16
26
5
9
14
23
Estimates for Run 12 were derived by graphing the
actual data and extending the plotted curves to
180 or 360 receptors.
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
C-32
-------
TABLE C-15. SUMMARY OF FINDING FROM SENSITIVITY STUDY OF TCM
1. It is more efficient to run TCM with grid receptor squares
equal to the size of area sources than with grid squares
smaller than the area sources. (This is because more
calculations are required to apportion emissions if an area
source spreads over several receptors.) Since the area
sources in Emission Set V are squares of 5 km per side, it
is more efficient to run TCM with receptors spaced at 5 km
than with receptors spared at 1 km.
2. Two pollutants can be modeled in one run.
C-33
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APPENDIX D
COST ESTIMATES FOR ANALYSIS
OF RESULTS AND REPORT PREPARATION
A detailed cost breakdown for the component of a modeling analysis
associated with analysis of results and preparation of report is presented in
this Appendix. The tables are grouped as follows:
Tables D-l(a) through D-l(i) are cost breakdowns applicable to
emission sets 1, 2 and 3 for various combinations of meteorological
data, receptor resolution and load conditions.
Tables D-l(j) through D-l(o) are cost breakdowns applicable to
emission sets 4 and 5, models using hourly meteorological data. Cost
tables are provided for various combinations of meteorological data,
receptor resolution, and baseline plus control strategies.
Tables D-l(p) through D-l(u) are cost breakdowns applicable to
emission sets 4 and 5, models using STAR meteorological data.
Various combinations of meteorological data, receptor resolution and
baseline plus control strategies are considered. In the table
headings, a STAR (NWS) meteorological data set is a single frequency
distribution summary of 1 or more years of wind data. Where 5 years
STAR (NWS) is noted, five separate sets of annual frequency
distribution wind data are used.
The costs presented in these tables are used in the Appendix E total cost
of an air quality analysis Tables.
D-l
-------
TABLE D-l. COST ESTIMATE FOR ANALYSIS OF RESULTS AND PREPARATION
OF REPORT ON TSP AND S02
(a) Emission Data Set(s): 1, 2, 3
Meteorological Data Set: NWS 1 year hourly
Receptor Resolution: 5 rings (5 kilometers) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
Hours
Total
304
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
16
120
40
40
40
24
24
780
4,150
1,180
990
780
290
370
8,540
(b) Emission Data Set(s): 1, 2, 3
Meteorological Data Set: NWS 5 years hourly
Receptor Resolution: 5 rings (5 kilometers) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
Hours
Total
428
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
16
160
64
64
64
20
40
780
5,540
1,890
1,580
1,250
360
610
12,010
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
D-2
-------
TABLE D-l (continued)
(c) Emission Data Set(s): 1, 2, 3
Meteorological Data Set: NWS 1 year hourly
Receptor Resolution: 10 rings (l kilometer) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
Hours
Total
528
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
16
200
80
80
80
24
48
800
6,920
2,360
1,970
1,560
430
740
14,780
(d) Emission Data Set(s): 1, 2, 3
Meteorological Data Set: NWS 5 years hourly
Receptor Resolution: 10 rings (1 kilometer) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
Total
Hours
644
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
16
240
100
100
100
32
56
800
8,300
2,950
2,470
1,950
580
860
17,910
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
D-3
-------
TABLE D-l (continued)
(e) Emission Data Set(s): 1, 2, 3
Meteorological Data Set: 1 year onsite
Receptor Resolution: 5 rings (5 kilometers) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
Total
Hours
16
160
60
40
40
16
32
364
Dollars
800
5,540
1,770
990
780
290
490
10,660
(f) Emission Data Set(s): 1, 2, 3
Meteorological Data Set: 1 year onsite
Receptor Resolution: 10 ring (1 kilometer) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
10 Group Scientist
8 Staff Scientist
7 Senior Scientist
6 Scientist
5 Junior Scientist
4 Technical Illustrator
3 Technical Typist
Total
Hours
16
240
100
80
100
24
56
616
Dollars
800
8,300
2,950
1,970
1,950
430
860
17,260
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
D-4
-------
TABLE D-l (continued)
(g) Emission Data Set(s): 1, 2, 3
Meteorological Data Set: NWS 1 year hourly
Receptor Resolution: 10 rings (1 kilometer) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 3
Labor Grade
Hours
Total
624
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
16
240
80
100
100
32
56
800
8,300
2,360
2,470
1,950
580
860
17,320
(h) Emission Data Set(s): 1, 2, 3
Meteorological Data Set: NWS 5 years hourly
Receptor Resolution: 10 rings (1 kilometer) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 3
Labor Grade
Hours
Total
740
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
16
280
100
120
120
40
64
800
9,690
2,950
2,960
2,340
720
980
20,440
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
D-5
-------
TABLE D-l (continued)
(i) Emission Data Set(s): 1, 2, 3
Meteorological Data Set: 1 year onsite
Receptor Resolution: 10 rings (1 kilometer) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 3
Labor Grade
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
Total
Hours
16
280
120
100
100
32
56
704
Dollars
800
9,690
3,540
2,470
1,950
580
860
19,890
(j) Emission Data Set(s): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: 1 year hourly
Receptor Resolution: 5 rings (5 kilometers) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
10 Group Scientist
8 Staff Scientist
7 Senior Scientist
6 Scientist
5 Junior Scientist
4 Technical Illustrator
3 Technical Typist
Total
Hours
16
160
60
60
60
24
36
416
Dollars
800
5,540
1,770
1,490
1,170
430
550
11,750
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
D-6
-------
TABLE D-l (continued)
(k) Emission Data Set(a): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: 5 years hourly
Receptor Resolution: 5 rings (5 kilometers) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
Hours
Total
532
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
16
200
80
80
80
32
44
800
6,920
2,360
1,970
1,560
570
680
14,860
(1) Emission Data Set(s): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: 1 year hourly
Receptor Resolution: 10 rings (1 kilometer) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
Hours
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
16
240
100
100
100
36
52
800
8,300
2,950
2,470
1,950
650
800
Total
644
17,920
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
D-7
-------
TABLE D-l (continued)
(m) Emission Data Set(s): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: 5 years hourly
Receptor Resolution: 10 rings (1 kilometer) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
Total
Hours
16
300
120
120
120
40
60
776
Dollars
800
10,380
3,540
2,960
2,340
720
1,080
21,820
(n) Emission Data Set(s): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: 1 year hourly
Receptor Resolution: 10 rings (1 kilometer) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: Baseline plus control strategy analysis
Labor Grade
10 Group Scientist
8 Staff Scientist
7 Senior Scientist
6 Scientist
5 Junior Scientist
4 Technical Illustrator
3 Technical Typist
Total
Hours
16
320
120
120
120
48
64
808
Dollars
800
11,070
3,540
2,960
2,340
860
980
22,550
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
D-8
-------
TABLE D-l (continued)
(o) Emission Data Set(s): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: 5 years hourly
Receptor Resolution: 10 rings (1 kilometer) plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: Baseline plus control strategies
Labor Grade
Hours
Total
1032
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
16
400
160
160
160
56
80
800
13,840
4,720
3,950
3,120
1,010
1,230
28,670
(p) Emission Data Set(s): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: STAR (NWS)
Receptor Resolution: 5 kilometers plus high impact receptors
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
Hours
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Sc ientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
8
120
40
40
40
16
24
400
4,150
1,180
990
780
290
370
Total
288
8,160
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
D-9
-------
TABLE D-l (continued)
(q) Emission Data Set(s): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: 5 years (NWS) STAR Annual Data Sets
Receptor Resolution: 5 kilometers
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
Total
Hours
8
200
80
60
60
24
40
472
Dollars
400
6,920
2,360
1,480
1,170
430
610
13,370
(r) Emission Data Set(a): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: STAR (NWS)
Receptor Resolution: 1 kilometer
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
10 Group Scientist
8 Staff Scientist
7 Senior Scientist
6 Scientist
5 Junior Scientist
4 Technical Illustrator
3 Technical Typist
Total
Hours
8
160
40
60
60
16
32
376
Dollars
400
5,540
1,180
1,480
1,170
290
490
10,550
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
D-10
-------
TABLE D-l (continued)
(a) Emission Data Set(s): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: 5 STAR (NWS) Annual Data Sets
Receptor Resolution: 1 kilometer
Number of Load Conditions: 1
Labor Grade
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
Total
Hours
8
240
60
80
80
24
42
534
Dollars
400
8,300
1,770
1,970
1,560
430
640
15,070
(t) Emission Data Set(s): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: STAR (NWS)
Receptor Resolution: 1 kilometer
Number of Load Conditions: Baseline plus control strategies
Labor Grade
10 Group Scientist
8 Staff Scientist
7 Senior Scientist
6 Scientist
5 Junior Scientist
4 Technical Illustrator
3 Technical Typist
Total
Hours
8
220
60
80
80
24
42
514
Dollars
400
7,610
1,770
1,970
1,560
430
640
14,380
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
(continued)
D-ll
-------
TABLE D-l (continued)
(u) Emission Data Set(s): 4, 5
Meteorological Data Set: 5 STAR (NWS) Annual Data Sets
Receptor Resolution: 1 kilometer
Number of Load Conditions: Baseline plus control strategies
Labor Grade
Hours
Dollars
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
Group Scientist
Staff Scientist
Senior Scientist
Scientist
Junior Scientist
Technical Illustrator
Technical Typist
8
260
80
80
80
28
50
400
9,000
2,360
1,970
1,560
500
770
Total
586
16,560
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
D-12
-------
APPENDIX E
COST ESTIMATES OF TSP AND S02 AIR QUALITY MODELING ANALYSES
The total cost of an air quality modeling analysis for S02 and TSP are
presented in sets of Tables E-l through E-12. The combinations of modeling
situation and model are addressed in the following order:
* Tables E-l a) through E-li), a point source modeling situation using
the CRSTER air quality model. Cost estimates are presented for nine
combinations of meteorological data, receptor resolution, and number
of load conditions.
Tables E-2a) through E-2i), a multi-point source modeling situation
using the CRSTER air quality model. Cost estimates are presented
for nine combinations of meteorological data, receptor resolution,
and number of load conditions.
Tables E-3a) through E-3i), a complex industrial source using the
CRSTER air quality model. Cost estimates are presented for nine
combinations of meteorological data, receptor resolution, and number
of load conditions.
Tables E-4a) through E-Ai), a multi-point source modeling situation
using the MPTER air quality model. Cost estimates are presented for
nine combinations of meteorological data, receptor resolution, and
number of load conditions.
Tables E-5a) through E-5i), a point source modeling situation using
the RAM air quality model. Cost estimates are presented for nine
combinations of meteorological data, receptor resolution, and number
of load conditions.
Tables E-6a) through E-6f), point and area sources in an urban area
using the RAM air quality model. Cost estimates are presented for
six combinations of meteorological data, receptor resolution and
number of load conditions and control strategies. Unlike the
modeling situations addressed in Tables E-l through E-5, onsite
meteorological data is not an available option. Also, rather than
differing load conditions, the cost of analyzing the effect of
emissions from point and area sources at present and the cost of
analyzing the effect of emissions at present and under two control
strategies is considered.
E-l
-------
Tables E-7a) through E-7i), a complex industrial source using the
ISC air quality model. Cost estimates are presented for nine
combinations of meteorological data, receptor resolutions and number
of load conditions.
Tables E-8a) through E-8f), point and area sources in a mid-sized
urban area using the COM air quality model. Cost estimates are
presented for six combinations of meteorological data, receptor
resolution, and number of load conditions and control strategies.
As in Table E-6, onsite meteorological data is not an available
option. Also, because is it an urban area complex, the cost of
analyzing the present emission configuration and the present plus
two control strategies are examined rather than one and three load
conditions.
Tables E-9a) through E-9i), a point source modeling situation using
TEM8-A air quality model. Cost estimates are presented for nine
combinations of meteorological data, receptor resolution, and number
of load conditions.
Tables E-lOa) through E~10i), a multi-point source modeling
situation using the TEM8-A air quality model. Cost estimates are
presented for nine combinations of meteorological data, receptor
resolution, and number of load conditions.
Tables E-lla) through E-llf), a point and area sources in an urban
area using the TEM8-A air quality model. Cost estimates are
presented for six combinations of meteorological data, receptor
resolution and number of load conditions and control strategies. As
in Table E-6, onsite meteorological data is not an available
option. Also, because it is an urban area complex of sources, the
cost of analyzing emissions from the present configuration of
sources and the present plus two control strategies are examined
rather than one and three load conditions.
Tables E-12a) through E-12f), point and area sources in a mid-sized
urban area using the TCM air quality model. Cost estimates are
presented for six combinations of meteorological data, receptor
resolution and control strategies. As in Table E-8, onsite
meteorological data ia not an available option. Also, because it is
an urban area complex of sources, the cost of analyzing emissions
from the present configuration of sources and the present plus two
control strategies are examined rather than one and three load
conditions.
In preparing the cost estimates in Appendix E, no new cost data was
formulated. Rather, this Appendix is a compilation of cost estimates
documented in Appendices A through D. The references for the cost by modeling
analysis task in the tables in this appendix is as follows:
E-2
-------
Acquisition and preparation of emissions data - Table A-3.
Acquisition and preparation of meteorological data - Table A-6.
Receptor Siting and model option selection - Table A-8.
Model Execution - Tables C-16 and C-17.
Analysis of Results and report preparation - Table D-l.
At the bottom of each Table, a "call" value is presented. This is the
cost estimate referred to in the main text.
E-3
-------
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APPENDIX F
COST OF AN AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS FOR MODELS
RECOMMENDED FOR GUIDELINE STATUS
COST OF APPLYING SHORT Z
SHORT Z is a short-term average atmospheric dispersion model designed to
be used with onsite data measurements. The EPA is considering recommending
its use to estimate concentrations of 24 hours or less in complex terrain
comprised of urban area or industrialized valleys. A full year of
meteorological data may be processed or the user may select any shorter
periods. The resulting concentration estimates assume the same averaging time
as the meteorological data input, which may be any averaging time of 24 hours
or less.
SHORT Z Characteristics
Met data -
Pollutants -
Averaging times -
Receptors -
Sources -
Short-term (1-hour, 3-hour, etc.) average values of
specified meteorological parameters are required.
These are normally derived from onsite measurements
but may also be developed from NWS data.
One pollutant is modeled per run; the output can be
scaled to calculate concentrations for additional
pollutants.
Up to four averaging periods may be selected per run.
Cartesian or polar grid may be defined; discrete
receptors may also be defined. Up to 1000 receptors
may be defined.*
Any combination of point, area, and building sources
may be input, up to a total of 300 sources.* Sources
may be grouped for output reporting.
Computer Core - 55K of core is required.
* Storage is dynamically allocated for efficiency; maximum numbers of
receptors and sources cannot be run at the same time.
F-l
-------
Execution time - On an IBM 3033N, execution is as follows:
CPU (sec)* « -rr . N . N . N + N .N
3.5 ) I s \x y
[" (I + J + K) . /N . N + N ) . N, . N, 1 . g }
L\ / \ x y xy/ h dj 6 j
}
j
where Nfl = the total number of input sources (card and tape) for which
concentration is to be calculated
Nx = the total number of points in the grid system X-axis, NXPNTS
Ny = the total number of points in the grid system Y-axis, NYPNTS
Nxy a the total number of discrete (arbitrarily placed) points
NXWYPT
Njj = the total number of input meteorological observations, NHOURS,
per day
N
-------
TABLE F-l. ASSUMPTIONS FOR TYPICAL SHORT Z SCENARIOS
Ng (No. output source groups)
Nx (No. receptors on x axis)
Ny (No. receptors on y axis)
Nxy (No. discrete receptors)
N^ (No. hours per day of met)
Nd (No. days)
I (No. sources read from tape)
J (No. sources written to tape)
K (No. input sources)
Cost ($) on IBM 3033N
CPU (sec) on IBM 3033N
6
19
19
28
24
1
0
0
12
$ 79
104
20
19
19
28
24
10
0
0
20
$1739
2294
20
19
19
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$5298
6989
As in Section 2 of the report, the total cost of an air quality analysis
will be made based on cost tables in Appendices A, C and D. The cost estimate
was based on the following:
Table A-3b, emission preparation estimates for an industrial source
complex under the proposed revision document (three load
conditions),
Acquisition and preparation of onsite meteorological data, Table
A-6,e).
Table A-8c, receptor siting and model option selection cost
estimates for emission sets 1, 2, and 3,
Table F-l, computer cost estimates for 20 sources, 389 receptors and
10 days, times a 1.2 error factor, times three load conditions,
Table C-17e, ISC labor cost estimates for model execution, and
Analysis of results and preparation of report cost estimates based
on GCA experience.
The cost breakdown and total estimated cost is presented in Table F-2.
COST OF APPLYING LONG Z
LONG Z is a long term version of SHORT Z. It is designed to provide
seasonal or annual average air quality impacts. A summary of LONG Z features
and a method for estimating computer cost follows.
F-3
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-------
LONG Z Characteristics
Met data - STAR data
Pollutants - One pollutant is modelled per run; the output can be
scaled to calculate concentrations for additional
pollutants.
Averaging times - Seasonal only.
Receptors - Cartesian or polar grid may be defined; discrete
receptors may also be defined. Up to 1000 receptors
may be defined.*
Sources - Any combination of point, area, and building sources
may be input, up to a total of 300 sources.* Sources
may be grouped for output reporting.
Computer Core - 50K of core is required.
Execution time - On an IBM 3033N, execution is as follows:
CPU (sec)** = -r^r . > [~N . /N . N + N ).N . N . N 1 . f
j.j ) l s \ x y *y' se 8 8pJ
I + J + K] . (N . N + N ) . N . g )
/ \ x y xy/ se 5 j
where Ng = the total number of sources (card and tape) for which
concentration calculations are to be made
NX = the total number of points in the grid system X-axis, NXPNTS
Ny = the total number of points in the grid system Y-axis, NYPNTS
Nxy » the total number of discrete (arbitrarily placed) points
NXWYPT
N8e = the number of seasons, NSEASN
N8t = the number of stability categories, NSTBLE
N8 = the number of wind speed categories, NSPEED
*Storage in dynamically determined for efficiency; maximum numbers of
receptors and sources cannot be run at the same time.
**Formula based on information provided by H. E. Cramer Company, Inc., in
its Technical Report TR-79-131-01, December 1979.
F-5
-------
I = the number of sources read from an input tape
J - the number of sources written to an output tape
K = the summation of the total number of sources in each source
combination printed. For example, if NGROUP were equal to "4"
and 3 sources were combined for the first group, 10 for the
second, 13 for the third and 26 for the fourth group, then K
would be equal to 52.
f = 2.1 x 1CT3
g = 2.2 x 10~3
Computer cost -
For 50K of core on the IBM 3033N, the cost (in
dollars) is: CPU (sec) x 0.758.
In Table F-3, the model execution cost of running LONG Z is presented for
three modeling scenarios. The center modeling scenario, with 20 sources, is
representative of a typical run. This scenario will form the basis for GCA's
model execution cost estimates.
TABLE F-3. ASSUMPTIONS FOR TYPICAL LONG Z SCENARIOS
Ns (No. output source groups)
NX (No. receptors on x axis)
Ny (No. receptors on y axis)
NXy (No. discrete receptors)
Nse (No. seasons)
Net (No. stability categories)
Nsp (No. wind speed categories)
I (No. sources read from tape)
J (No. sources written to tape)
K (No. input sources)
Cost ($) on IBM 3033N
CPU (sec) on IBM 303 3N
6
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132
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19
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5
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420
20
19
19
28
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5
6
0
0
100
$375
498
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars-
As in Section 2 of this report, the total cost of an air quality analysis
will be made based on cost tables in Appendices A, C, and D. The cost
estimate is made based on the following:
Table A-3b, emission preparation estimate for an industrial source
complex under the proposed AOMG (three load conditions);
Table A-6d, NWS STAR data acquisition and preparation estimates;
F-6
-------
Table A-8c, receptor siting and model option selection cost
estimates for a 1-km resolution, three-load condition analysis;
Table F-3, model execution costs for 20 sources with 389 receptors
were extrapolated to a three-load condition modeling exercise using
5 annual NWS STAR data sets (7 model runs) and multiplied by an
error factor of 1.2;
Table C-17f, ISC labor cost estimates of model execution; and
Analysis of results and preparation of report cost estimates based
on GCA experience.
The cost breakdown and total cost of an air quality analysis using LONG Z are
presented in Table F-4.
COST OF APPLYING BLP
BLP is a short-term air quality analysis model designed to use 1 year of
hourly meteorological data. BLP model characteristics and computer costs of a
typical run are provided below.
BLP Characteristics
Met data - Hourly met data can be input for 1 year.
Pollutants - One pollutant is modeled per run.
Averaging times - One averaging time is calculated per run.
Receptors - A maximum of 100 receptors is allowed; program is run
two or more times for over 100 receptors (e.g., four
runs are required for 360 receptors).
Soiirces - Line sources and point sources are modeled. Typical
runs include 2 to 10 line sources and 8 to 38 point
sources.
Computer core - 190K of core is required for BLP; 140 K of core is
required for the BLP post-processor.
Computer cost - For 100 receptors and 365 days, the cost of a BLP run
on an IBM 3033N computer is approximately $100 per
line source and $20 per point source. The cost of a
BLP post-processor run for these data is approximately
$25. (Cost estimates were derived from information
provided to GCA by developers and users of BLP.)
Execution time - For 190K of storage, the number of CPU seconds
required on an IBM 3033N is equal to: cost/0.8921.
For 140K of storage, the CPU seconds required is:
cost/0.8426.
F-7
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Assumptions for a Typical BLP Scenario
No. line sources - 6
No. point sources - 20
No. pollutants - 2
No. pollutants per run - 2
No. averaging times - 2
No. receptors - 180
No. days - 365
In Table F-5, the model execution cost of running BLP, using these
assumptions is presented.
TABLE F-5. COST AND EXECUTION TIME FOR SCENARIO ON IBM 3033N
Run CPU (sec) Cost ($)
BLP for 100 receptors 1121 $1000
BLP for 80 receptors 897 800
BLP post-processor (two runs) 5£ 50
Total for scenario 2077 $1850
The totals for running this scenario with 360 receptors instead of 180, and
5 years of met data instead of 1 year, would be ten times the totals in the
above table (for CPU seconds and cost).
BLP is used in complete yearly simulations of TSP and 862 air quality
impacts. A cost of an air quality analysis using BLP and fulfilling the
requirements of the 1980 proposed revisions to the AQMG will be made based
on the following:
Cost estimate for preparing emission data for an industrial source
complex, as detailed in Table A-3b, will be used.
Labor, material, and computer cost of preparing 1 year of onsite
hourly data in Table A-6,e.
Cost of siting receptors and selecting model option for emission
set 3 in Table A-8c.
F-9
-------
Model execution costs in Table F-5 extrapolated to 360 receptors,
times three-load conditions, times an error factor of 1.2.
Labor cost estimates for ISC in Table C-17e.
Analysis and report preparation costs based on GCA experience
Cost of an air quality analysis for SC>2 and TSP using BLP is presented in
Table F-6.
COST OF AN AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS USING MESOPUFF
The characteristics of the MESOPUFF model are described below.
MESOPUFF Characteristics
Met data - Prepared by MESOPAC program into gridded fields.
Pollutants - S02 and SO^ are modeled in one run.
Averaging times - One averaging time is calculated per run; the
MESOFILE post-processor can be used to calculate
additional averaging times.
Receptors - A receptor grid plus up to 10 arbitrary receptors
may be defined.
Sources - Up to 10 point sources may be input per run.
Time steps - A time step of 1 to 12 hours may be specified.
PUFF emission rate - A PUFF emission rate of 1/3 to 12 per time step may
be specified.
PUFF sampling rate - A PUFF sampling rate of 1/3 to 12 per time step may
be specified.
Computer core - 300K of core is required.
Execution time - Execution time is dependent on:
No. of time steps (N),
No. of PUFF releases per source per time step
No. of PUFF samples per time step (Ng),
No. of sources (S),
Various met conditions which control the average
number of PUFFs resident on the grid,
No. of receptors.
F-10
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For a 26 x 26 grid with receptors spaced 40 km
apart; with Np = 1; and with Ng dynamically
determined by the program, execution time of
MESOPUFF on an IBM 3033N is as follows:
CPU (sec)* « -r~ (0.38 x S x N + 0.43 x N)
J J. ^
For this same grid, the execution time for MESOPAC
is:
CPU (MC).. ^ .as
where At equals the length of a time step in minutes.
Computer cost - For 300K of core on the IBM 3033N, the cost (in
dollars) is: CPU (sec) x 1.429.
The model execution cost of a single 4-day run and of a 10-day run of
MESOPUFF are presented in Table F-7. The cost of an air quality analysis of
S02 and 804 transport using MESOPUFF will be made assuming four 4-day
simulations. The cost of the modeling analysis tasks for such an air quality
analysis were made as follows:
Acquisition and preparation of emission data, Table A-3a for a
multi-point source.
Acquisition and preparation of meteorological data, Table A-4 plus
labor estimates based on GCA experience. The computer cost
estimates include running MESOPAC.
Receptor siting and model option selection for a multipoint source
in Table A-8a.
Model execution costs are made, based on Table F-7, for four 4-day
simulations, times an error factor of 1.2. Labor costs are based on
GCA experience.
Analysis of results and preparation of report costs are based on GCA
experience.
*Formulas are based on information in "Development of Mesoscale Air Quality
Simulation Models, Volume 3: User's Guide to MESOPUFF (Mesoscale Puff)
Model," EPA-600/7-80-058, U.S. EPA.
F-12
-------
TABLE F-7. MODEL EXECUTION COST OF A TYPICAL MfcSOPUFF APPLICATION
Grid area
Receptor spacing
No. receptora in grid
No. days in simulation (D)
Length of time step (At)
No. of time steps (N = x D)
No. sources
No. PUFFs emitted per time step
PUFF sampling rate
MESOPAC: CPU (sec) on IBM 3033N
Cost ($)
MESOPUFF: CPU (sec)
Cost (fc)
Total: CPU (sec)
Cost (fc)
1000 km x 1000 km
40 km
676
4
60 min
96
10
1
dyn. det.
31
$ 44
79
$113
110
$157
1000 km x 1000 km
40 km
676
10
60 min
240
10
1
dyn. det.
78
$111
198
$283
276
$394
The cost of an air quality analysis using MESOPUFF is presented in Table F-8.
COST OF A MESOGRID AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS
The characteristics of the MESOGRID model are described below.
MESOGRID Characteristics
Met data - Prepared by MESOPAC program into gridded fields.
Pollutants - SC>2 and 804 are modeled in same run, or S02
can be modeled alone for approximately one-half the
execution time.
Averaging time - One averaging time is calculated per run; the MESOFILE
post-processor can be used to calculate additional
averaging times.
Receptors - A three-dimensional Cartesian coordinate system, plus
up to 10 arbitrary receptors, may be specified.
Sources - Up to 50 point sources may be modeled in one run.
MESOFILE may be used to merge results from two or more
runs if more than 50 sources are to be modeled.
F-13
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Time step -
Computer core -
Execution time -
A time step of 5 minutes to 1 hour may be specified.
300K of core is required.
Execution time is dependent on:
No. of time steps (N),
No. of grid points (direct dependency),
Various met factors which control the time step length
(At) satisfying the horizontal and vertical
computational stability criteria.
Execution time is independent of the number of sources.
For a 26 x 26 grid with receptors spaced at 40-km
intervals, and three vertical layers of 500m, 1000m,
and 2500m, the execution time of MESOGRID on an IBM
3033N is as follows:
CPU (sec)* =
300N
5.12
Computer cost -
where time steps are of duration t minutes.
The execution time of MESOPAC is approximately one-third
that of MESOGRID.
For 300K of core on the IBM 3033N, the cost (in dollars)
is: CPU (sec) x 1.429.
The computer costs of two 4-day simulations and one 20-day simulation of
S02 and 804 transport with MESOGRID, are estimated in Table F-9, these
will form the basis for estimating computer costs of an air quality analysis.
The computer costs will be equal to the cost of a 4-day simulation with 10-km
grid spacing, times 4 scenarios, times an error factor of 1.2. Emission and
meteorological data preparation costs for such a study are made based on GCA
experience, as are receptor siting, analysis of results, and report
preparation costs. The estimated cost of a MESOGRID air quality analysis is
presented in Table F-10.
*Formula is based on information in "Development of Mesoscale Air Quality
Simulation Models, Volume 4: User's Guide to MESOGRID (Mesoscale Grid)
Model," EPA-600/7-80-059, U.S. EPA.
F-15
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APPENDIX G
COST OF A DEMONSTRATION STUDY
The cost of a demonstration study was determined for the three possible
types of demonstration studies- The components of a demonstration study are:
presentation of model theory,
field study,
model execution,
comparison of model results to data, and
analysis of comparison study and preparation of report.
There are three field study options:
onsite field study, involving collection of meteorological data and
and TSP air quality data;
tracer study, involving measurements of gas releases under
worst-case conditions; and
offsite study, involving the use of already existing data for a
similar setting to demonstrate the validity of the model.
The cost of using each option in a demonstration study will be determined
in this analysis. At the bottom of the final cost tables for each option;
Tables G-8, G-9, G-10, a "call" value is cited. This is the value used in the
main text .
The cost of presenting the model theory is minor. Documentation should
be easily available through the model developers- Only a review and write up
of the documentation would be required. The cost of such a review is
presented in Table G-l.
Model execution costs will be estimated by GCA based on the cost of ISC,
a recommended model. Estimates of the cost of processing the field data and
comparing it to model calculations were made based on GCA experience and are
presented in Table G-2. In Table G-3, the cost of analyzing the results and
preparing a report, based on GCA experience, is presented.
The difference in cost of the three demonstration studies is due to the
field study option used. Cost estimates were made for the three options as
follows:
G 1
-------
TABLE G-l. COST ESTIMATE FOR REVIEWING AND
WRITING UP MODEL THEORY
Labor grade Hours Dollars
8 16 550
6 40_ 990
Total 56 1,540
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
TABLE G-2. COST ESTIMATE FOR PROCESSING ONSITE AIR QUALITY
AND METEOROLOGICAL DATA AND COMPARING MODEL
CALCULATIONS TO DATA
Labor grade
10
8
6
5
Computer costs
Total cost
Hours
16
80
120
200
Sec
1,300
Dollars
800
2,770
2,960
3,900
Dollars
1,500
11,930
Note: All costs are In 1980 dollars.
TABLE G-3. COST ESTIMATE FOR ANALYZING RESULTS AND
PREPARING A DEMONSTRATION STUDY REPORT
Labor grade
10
8
6
5
4
3
Total
Hours
40
320
160
160
40
64
Dollars
2,000
11,070
3,950
3,120
720
980
21,840
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
G-2
-------
Onsite field studyThe cost estimate was made based on assuming a
4-month study. It was assumed that one meteorological station was
in operation and 15 862 and TSP monitors were placed in key
locations within a 15-kilometer radius of the facility. The cost of
meteorological equipment, as presented in Table B-.L, was used.
Labor costs for siting and operating the meteorological station were
made, based on GCA experience, and are presented in Table G-4. The
cost of air quality equipment for 15 sites was determined based on
conversations with instrument firms, and the costs are presented in
Table G-5. In Table G-6, GCA estimates the labor costs involved in
operating the monitors.
Tracer study--It was assumed that there would be four test periods
with three releases per test period. The field study would take
4 months (1 in each season). The meteorological data costs in
Tables B-l and G-4 were extrapolated to the cost of operating three
stations. Cost estimates of the tracer study were acquired from
consultants, and they are documented in Table G-7.
Offsite field studyTwo steps were involved in using offsite data.
First, the similarity of the two sites must be demonstrated.
Second, the data must be acquired. The cost of these two steps was
estimated by GCA and included in the total cost table, Table G-10.
ONSITE FIELD STUDY
In addition to the tasks addressed in Tables G-l, G-2, and G-3, a
demonstration study using the onsite field study option would consist of the
following:
Collecting onsite meteorological data,
Collecting air quality data, and
Model execution.
The material cost of setting up a 10 meter meteorological tower was
documented in Table B-2. The labor required for operating the meteorological
station for one year was also addressed in Appendix B, in Table B-3. The 4
months of onsite meteorological data required for the onsite field study would
consist of the same task breakdown as in Table B-3. Based on the one year
labor estimates, the labor cost for the 4 month onsite study was prepared and
is presented in Table G-4. The management tasks have been scaled down as
appropriate for a smaller assignment. The labor task estimates in Table G-4
were made based on the following:
the equipment calibration and setup would require two people for
three weeks, just as in the one year analysis,
there would be one calibration taking two people three days,
G-3
-------
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G-4
-------
TABLE G-5. S02 AND TSP AIR QUALITY MONITORING EQUIPMENT COSTS FOR 15 SITES
Quantity
15
15
15
30
15
17
32
30 pair
36 boxes
17
17
18
15
15
15
1
6
60 rolls
60
15
3 days
15
4
Total material c
Annual Equipment
Categorized cost
Item
Shelters, 8 ft x 8 ft x 8 ft
Ladder and railing
Shipping
Hi-vol shelter and motor
Timer
Spare motors
Brushmisers
Motor brushes
1-HV filters
Monitor Labs Model 8850 S02 Analyzer
Plus options
S02 permeation tube
H2 pump module
Telemetry
Recorders
Monitor Labs Model 8500B S02 Calibrator
Support material
Magnetic tapes
Recorder chart paper
Recorder pens
Miscellaneous fittings
Envirodata 10% strip chart data reduction
for QA
Power company electrical lines
Electrician
Fence surrounding each site
Tool kit
Envelopes for Hi-vol filters
osts
Cost3
s: S02 equipment
TSP equipment
Support material
Cost
63,900
7,425
4,500
11,850
3,825
2,210
1,780
135
1,500
123,675
23,800
3,150
3,375
3,000
10,050
2,375
75
720
210
250
840
3,000
840
7,500
175
60
280,220
66,520
169,425
21,320
89,475
aThis value is used in monitoring equipment cost estimates in this study. The
annual equipment cost is equal to the total material costs times the capital
recovery factor (CRF). CRF is defined in Appendix B. A 5-year useful life
and a 6 percent inflation adjusted interest rate was assumed.
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
G-5
-------
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TABLE G-7. DOCUMENTATION OF FIELD COSTS OF A TRACER STUDY
Several conditions have been established upon which the estimates for
tracer studies have been solicited.
Assume:
100 meter release height
Single source
Rural, valley terrain
Model being validated would be variation of Gaussian plume
model such as CRSTER
Four overall test periods, one in each season
Three releases during each test period
Receptors would be a combination of ground and airplane
Ground receptors would be located up to 15 km downwind
Helicopters not used to reach remote ground receptors
Source: Aerovironment, Inc.Bob Baxter
20 to 25 ground receptors needed to provide fixed sampler data
giving hourly concentration averages
5-hour releases at 50 Ib/hr; tracer cost is $10,000
Aircraft data provides real-time analysis to follow the plume
and determine direction at $200 to $300/hour
Need to determine upper air meteorology by tethersonde at $5,000
Cost based on previous release study performed for Bureau of
Land Management (BLM), validation of nonguideline model, two
tests with four releases each, 2 weeks in the field for each
one: $200,000 to $300,000
Cost of Tracer Study
This program is basically double the size of the one performed
for BLM and described above. Eight weeks would be required in
the field instead of four, there are four tests instead of
two. The 1981 price of the study conducted for BLM is
approximately $275,000. Therefore, the cost of this program
would be roughly $550,000
Source: North American Weather ConsultantsTimothy Spangler
Ground receptors to provide average hourly data, 20 to 30
samplers
Release visible smoke to photograph plume and provide visible
tracking
Airplane tracking of plume also helps provide data
Tracer released by balloon
Cost based on previous release study where seven releases were
made, visible smoke also released for tracking and aircraft
tracking was used; cost: $260,000
(continued)
G-7
-------
TABLE G-7 (continued)
Cost of Tracer Study
For the program proposed in this report, North American Weather
Consultants cost estimate was in agreement with Aerovironment,
Inco. They estimated the cost of the proposed program to be
$560,000
Comments on Meteorological Requirements
For both, the study would require at least one, and probably three,
10-meter met stations in a valley to give accurate readings of meteorological
parameters. See 4-month met costs, Table B-2, for the price of one met
station. For the labor cost of three met stations, use:
4month metManagement x 2
Labor x 3
Equipment x 3
G-8
-------
there would be a routine site visit three days per week-4 hours per
day by one person for 18 weeks,
there would be unscheduled maintenance of 12 hours per month for
four months,
it would take two people one week of breakdown time to dismantle and
pack up the system, and
quality assurance, and report writing estimates were made based on
GCA experience.
The price breakdown of the materials required for the 15 TSP and SC>2 air
quality monitors is presented in Table G-5. The prices supplied are GCA
estimates. The labor costs for setting up, operating and breaking down the 15
monitor sites are presented in Table G-6. The management labor estimates are
based on GCA experience. The labor task estimates were made based on the
following:
equipment setup and calibration would require two people one week to
set up all the sites and two people four days per site to calibrate,
a calibration visit would be required, taking two people four days
per site,
routine maintenance would take two hours per site, seven days a week
for 18 weeks,
a breakdown time of three weeks for two people would be required to
pack up the network, and
data reduction, quality assurance, and report writing have been
estimated by GCA.
Finally, a labor and computer budget estimate was made by GCA. The labor
estimates were based on GCA experience- As a guide for estimating a computer
budget, GCA allowed for the cost of running ISC for one year.. The reasoning
behind this is that ISC is representative of the type of model that could be
tested and a budget equal to a one year run would allow for a reasonable
amount of testing. The total cost estimate for a demonstration study is given
in Table G-8. It is a sum of the cost breakdown in Tables G-l through G-6,
B-2, and computer budget estimates based on Table 3.
TRACER STUDY
The cost of a demonstration study using the tracer study option would be
composed of all the components discussed above, with the following exceptions:
three meteorological sites would be required to adequately document
the tracer study; as a result, the costs presented in Table G-4 are
adjusted as recommended in Table G-7, and
G-9
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the cost of performing a tracer study (instead of collecting air
quality data), which are presented (along with assumptions) in Table
G-7.
The total cost of an onsite demonstration study using the tracer study option
is presented in Table G-9. It is the sum of costs itemized in Tables G-l
through G-3, G-4 modified as recommended in Table G-7, G-7, and model
execution costs as discussed above for the field study option.
OFFSITE FIELD STUDY
The cost of a demonstration study using off-site field study data is
given in Table G-10. GCA made estimates for the tasks of demonstrating site
similarity and acquire and process off-site data and included them in Table
G-10. All other costs have already been discussed previously.
G-ll
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-------
.APPENDIX H
COST OF DETERMINING EMISSION LIMITS FROM
MONITORING DATA AND MODELING IN COMPLEX TERRAIN
SIP EMISSION LIMITS FROM MONITORING
The procedure for determining emission limits from monitoring data is as
follows:
1 year of ambient data is collected for a monitoring network and
documented.
The network data is reviewed and design values are determined for
pollutants for all averging times for which a standard or maximum
allowable PSD increment exists.
The meteorological conditions for the year are reviewed and compared
to climatic norm from NWS data.
The cost for determining emission limits from monitoring data was
estimated for a point source in a valley. In order to adequately identify
design values, GCA estimated that 15 S02 and TSP monitoring sites would be
required. The cost of the needed equipment was presented in Table G-5. In
Table H-2, the cost of siting operating, and maintaining the network, as well
as, the cost of reducing the data and writing a report are presented. The
cost breakdown is very similar to the four month monitoring operating costs
presented in Table G-6. The management hours have increased to reflect the
increased magnitude of the work. Also, the costs for the one year program
Increase by a factor of three for the calibration, routine site visits, and
maintenance tasks. The time required for report writing has also increased to
account for the greater amount of data analysis. The cost of the remaining
tasks: reviewing the data to determine design values, reviewing meteorological
data and comparing it to climatic norm, and preparing a report are presented
in Table H-3. The total cost of the SIP emission analysis is given in Table
H-4.
SIP EMISSION LIMITS FROM MODELING
To determine emission limits from modeling in a complex terrain
situation, a model like SHORT Z would be a reasonable candidate. The cost of
a study of the type required here has already been analyzed in Appendix F. A
cost breakdown is presented in Table F-2. The total cost for a point source
modeling study in complex terrain using SHORT Z is $84 K.
H-l
-------
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H-3
-------
TABLE H-3. COST OF DETERMINING SIP EMISSION LIMITS FROM
MONITORING DATA, A SUMMATION OF COST BREAKDOWNS
PRESENTED IN TABLES G-6, H-l, and H-2.
Labor
Materials
Analysis component Hours Dollars (dollars) Total cost
Air Quality Equipment
Operation of Monitoring 15,804 344,790
Network
Review Monitoring Data 456 13,890
and Prepare Report
66,520 66,520
344,790
13,890
Total cost 425,200
"Call" Value $430 K
Note: All costs are in 1980 dollars.
H-4
-------
APPENDIX I
COMPARISON OF CPU TIME ON AN IBM 3033N TO
OTHER COMMONLY USED COMPUTERS
The requirements for running specific scenarios of various models are
listed in this report in terms of the cost on the IBM 3033N computer used in
this study, and in terms of the number of seconds of CPU execution time.
COST OF CPU TIME
The cost of running a program on an IBM 3033N computer was calculated as
follows:
Cost (fc) » Base Cost (fc) + High Core Cost ($),
where
Base Cost ($) = 0.70400 x S + 0.00099 x C x S + 0.00050 x E
High Core Cost ($) = 0.00396 x (C-192) x S for
C >192 only
S m number of CPU seconds
C * core storage used (in thousands)
E - number of EXCPs.
This formula should be viewed only as a general estimate of cost. The
cost of running the same scenario of the same model on IBM 3033N computers at
different installations may be calculated in markedly different ways.
Further, the cost estimates listed in this report are only suggestive of the
costs of running the models on processors other than the IBM 3033N.
EXECUTION TIME
Tables 1-1, 1-2, and 1-3 provide listings of the relative performance of
many widely used mainframe computers and super mini-computers. Most of the
relative performance ratings were provided by the Computerworld newspaper.
1-1
-------
Tables 1-1 to 1-3 may be used to convert execution time from the number
of CPU seconds required on an IBM 3033N to the number of CPU seconds which
would be required on other computers. To make the conversion for a specific
scenario of a model, multiply the number of CPU seconds required on an IBM
3033N (as listed in this report) by the converstion factor listed in the
tables. For example, if a model requires 100 CPU seconds on an IBM 3033N, it
will require about 131 CPU seconds on an Amdahl 470V/6 Computer (100 x 1.31),
and about 53 CPU seconds on a Univac 1100/84 computer (100 x 0.53).
The results of these conversions should be viewed only as general
approximations of expected execution times. Computer performance varies
greatly, not only with the processor and with the software, but also with such
factors as the number of devices attached to the system and the number of
users on the system.
1-2
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA 450/4-82-014
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
Cost Analysis of Proposed Changes to the Air Quality
Modeling Guidelines
|6 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
3 RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
5 REPORT DATE
February
7. AUTHOR(S)
Michael Wojcik, Jane Wojcik, Paul Bareford,
Mary Have lock,_ Michael Gcraghty, Sue EJ Lert Haupt
18 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
GCA-TR-81-]09-G
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
GCA Corporation
GCA/Technology Division
Burlington Road, Bedford, MA 01730
10 PROGRAM ELEMENT NO
68-02-3168, Task Order No. 51
11. CONTR ACT/G R ANT NO.
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
OAQPS-MDAD (MD-14)
Environmental Protection Agency
Research Triangle Park, NC 27511
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
450/4-82-014
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16 ABSTRACT
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a set of guidelines
to be followed in any air quality modeling study performed for the EPA. The
Guideline on Air Quality Models (AQMG) was issued in 1978 as a part of the Office
of Air Quality Planning and Standards Guideline Series. Since the release of the
1978 AQMG, the EPA has had a chance to review its effectiveness and gather together
recommendations on how the document could be improved. In 1980, a proposed revision
to the 1978 AQMG was issued for review. In this report, GCA examines the costs
associated with implementing certain features of the 1980 proposed revision.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
Air Pollution
Cost Analysis
Computer Modeling
b IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS |c. COSATI Field/Group
Air Quality Modeling
EPA Modeling Guidelines
8. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Unlimited Distribution
19 SECURITY CLASS /This Report)
Unclassified
21. NO. OF PAGES
294
20. SECURITY CLASS (Thispage)
Unclassified
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (R»v. 4-77) PREVIOUS EDITION is OBSOLETE
-------
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Region V, Library
230 South Dearborn Street ;/'
Chicago, Illinois 60604
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