c/EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
EPA-450/4-83-003a
June 1985
Air
Evaluation of Rural
Air Quality
Simulation Models
Addendum A:
Muskingum River
Data Base
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EPA-450/4-83-003a
Evaluation of Rural Air Quality
Simulation Models
Addendum A: Muskingum River Data Base
By
William M. Cox
Gerald K, Moss
U.S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
Office of Air and Radiation
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, NC 2771 1
June 1985
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This report has been reviewed by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not
constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.
EPA-450/4-83-003a
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PREFACE
This report summarizes performance statistics for several rural point
source models. The performance of the models is based on data collected near .
the Muskingum River Power Plant. The report serves as an addendum to a pre-
vious publication* on model performance which was based on data from the Clifty
Creek Power Plant. Other addenda to the Clifty Creek publication are also
planned for additional data bases and for presentation of supplemental informa-
tion on model performance.
*Londergan, R. J., D. H. Minott, D. J. Wackter, T. Kincaid and D. Bonitata,
1982. Evaluation of Rural Air Quality Simulation Models. EPA Publication
No. EPA-450/4-83-003. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle
Park, N.C. (NTIS No. PB 83-182758).
m
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
PREFACE iii
TABLES vi
FIGURES vi
1. INTRODUCTION 1
2. AIR QUALITY DATA BASE AND STATISTICAL APPROACH 5
3. MODEL PERFORMANCE RESULTS 9
4. CONCLUSIONS 29
REFERENCES 30
APPENDICES
A. Statistics for 25 Highest Values
B. Statistics for All Events
C. Statistics for Highest Concentrations at Each Station
D. Comparisons of Highest Values for Various Pairings
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TABLES
Number Page
1 Differences of Observed and Predicted Averages of
the 25 Highest S02 Concentrations Values (Unpaired
in Time or Location) 11
2 Average Difference Between Observed and Predicted
Concentration Values Event-By-Event (Paired in
Time) 17
3 Comparison of Maximum Observed and Maximum Predicted
Concentration Values 23
FIGURES
Number Page
1 Field Monitoring Network Near the
Muskingum River Power Plant 6
vi
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SECTION 1
INTRODUCTION
In October of 1982, EPA published the results of a comprehensive
evaluation of eight rural air quality simulation models using ambient S02,
meteorological, and source data for the Clifty Creek Power Plant.1 The
evaluation was based on recommendations by the American Meteorological
Society (AMS) regarding the use of statistical methods for comparing observed
air quality with model predictions.^ EPA later published an appendix-^ to
the Clifty Creek report summarizing the performance of an additional model
(PPSP) for the same data base and statistical procedures used in the original
evaluation. The Clifty Creek report presents the first comprehensive
evaluation of rural models using a standardized statistical protocol as
recommended by the AMS.
The purpose of this addendum is to provide similar information on model
performance based on data provided by Teknekron^ for the Muskingum River
Power Plant. The models evaluated are the following: (1) CRSTER/MPTER
developed by EPA (2) MRS DM developed by ERT, Inc. (3) TEM-8A developed by
the Texas Air Control Board and (4) PPSP developed by the Martin Marietta
Corporation. The Muskingum River evaluation is confined to these four
models since they essentially span the range of technology represented by
the rural models as a group. The five models not applied here all use the
Pasquill-Gi fford dispersion curves as defined in the MPTER model, although
their other features may differ somewhat from each other and from MPTER.
The principal technical features of the MPTER/CRSTER model and technical
differences between it and other three models as run for this study are:
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MPTER/CRSTER (EPA)
Full terrain subtraction
Briggs final plume rise
Uses stability classes A, B, C, D, E, F
Stability class restriction (G replaced with F)
Pasquill-Gifford Oy and az
Mixing height (L) used for all stability classes
Uniform mixing beyond where oz exceeds 1.6L
Full plume penetration. When H >L, then ground-level concentration
(x) = 0
Wind profile power-law coefficients of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30
and 0.30 for stability classes A-F.
MPSDM (ERT)
ASME (1979) dispersion coefficients
Terrain treatment (1/2 height, unstable and neutral; full terrain
subtraction, stable)
Transitional plume rise
5 stability classes (F used for all stable)
Stack-tip downwash
Buoyancy enhanced dispersion (Oy and oz)
Mixing height not used for stable conditions
Uniform mixing not assumed
Briggs Partial plume penetration
Wind profile power law coefficients (.09, .11, .12, .14, .20)
TEM-8A (Texas Air Control Board)
Flat terrain assumed
Horizontal dispersion for 60-minute averages (Oy = C-\ °yPG;
where C = 3.35, 2.70, 2.14, 1.71, 1.37, 1.37 for stabilities 1-6)
Transitional plume rise
Mixing height not used for stable conditions
Uniform mixing at 2 times the distance beyond where °z = 0.47L
Full plume penetration when H >2L; then x = 0.
PPSP (Martin Marietta)
Briggs dispersion coefficients
Stability class selection based on (1) convective theory of
scaling for daytime and (2) the Turner algorithm for nighttime
Partial penetration of buoyant plume into the capping inversion
Briggs plume rise formulas, including the "breakup" and
"touchdown" model s
No terrain adjustments
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It should be noted that EPA did not directly solicit input from the model
developers prior to this evaluation, as was done for the Clifty Creek
evaluation. This is due to the fact that the environmental and meteoro-
logical features around the Muskingum River plant are quite similar to
those for Clifty Creek and the data bases are in an identical format on
EPA's UNIVAC 1100 computer. For this reason, the options for each would be
identical to those used in the Clifty Creek evaluation. The reader should
refer to the Clifty Creek report for a more detailed description of the
models, options used, and data archive procedures.
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SECTION 2
AIR QUALITY DATA BASE AND STATISTICAL APPROACH
The Muskingum River Plant, located near Beverly, Ohio, is operated by
the Ohio Power Company which is owned by the American Electric Power Corpora-
tion (AEP). It is a coal-fired, base load facility having two 252 meter
stacks to vent emissions. Terrain around the plant is similar to that for
Clifty Creek and consists of low ridges and rolling hills. The data base
was assembled by Teknekron for 1975 and 1976 from air quality data measured
by ERT, Inc., standard National Weather Service (NWS) data and plant operat-
ing data supplied by the AEP. The ambient monitoring network consisted of
four S02 stations (1-4) ranging from about 4 to 20 kilometers from the plant
(see Figure 1). The meteorological data, compiled by Teknekron in the stand-
ard format as output from the Meteorological Preprocessor Program,5 were
used as input to the models. The surface meteorological data was from the
Parkersburg, West Virginia station while the upper air meteorological data
was from Huntington, West Virginia. The Huntington station is located approx-
imately 40 kilometers south of the plant while the Parkersburg station is
situated approximately 140 kilometers to the southwest of the plant.
Unlike the Clifty Creek analysis, no appropriate on-site wind data was
available for the Muskingum River site. The use of off-site meteorological
data for the evaluation may have a minor, but unquantifiable, effect on the
performance statistics. Pasquill-Gifford (P-6) stability classes were thus
calculated by the meteorological preprocessor on the basis of insolation
and wind speed using the Turner method. For each hour, the wind was
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MUSKINGUM NETWORK
N
MUSKINGUM
CALDWELL 4
EL. 332 m
RICH VALLEY 3
EL.305 m
HACKNEY
EL.275 m
BEVERLY
EL.256 m
POWER
PLANT
STACKS HEIGHT
ELEV.
1 _ 448 m ^
2 - 454 m
FIGURE 1
6
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determined by taking the reported wind direction (specified to the nearest 10
degrees) and then using a radomization procedure to specify a value to the
nearest degree. Input for calculating stability were hourly wind speed and
cloud cover data from the Parkersburg NWS station. Hourly mixing heights
were determined by the preprocessor based on morning radiosonde and surface
temperature measurements at the Huntington NWS station, the hour of day,
and hourly stability class.
As with Clifty Creek, source data includes hourly $02 emission rate, gas
exit velocity and gas exit temperature. Values for the S02 emission rate
were estimated for each hour based upon the percent load for each boiler
and the average monthly sulfur content of the coal.
The performance statistics resulting from the evaluation are documented
in Appendices A through D to this report. Upper and lower 95 percent confid-
ence limits for the difference between the averages of the 25 highest observed
and predicted values are enclosed in parenthesis. Although the formats of the
tabular presentations are essentially the same as those contained in the
Clifty Creek report, minor differences exist. These differences are explained
in detail in Appendix G to the Clifty Creek report.
There is one other difference between the statistical procedures used
in this analysis and those used in the Clifty Creek evaluation regarding selec-
tions of the 25 highest observed and predicted values. In an attempt to
minimize the undesirable effects of spatial and temporal autocorrelation, the
previous analysis excluded the lower of two values that were adjacent in
time (two consecutive hours at the same station) or adjacent in space (two
different stations for the same hour). Because the "statistical" improve-
ments, if any, can not easily be demonstrated, such "adjacency" checking
7
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was not performed in this analysis. Thus selection of the 25 highest values
was done irrespective of whether or not they are adjacent in time or space.
The tables shown in the appendices to this report were generated with
a software package that was specifically designed for model evaluation.
The system, Model Evaluation Support System (MESS), was designed to aid in
formatting and handling meteorological, air quality and source characteristic
data. A statistical package incorporated into MESS calculates and outputs
the AMS performance statistics in the prescribed format. Hourly background
values were computed using the same approach described in the Clifty Creek
report, i.e., a background concentration for each hour was calculated as the
average of values at monitor locations outside the 90° sector downwind from
the Muskingum River Plant.
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SECTION 3
MODEL PERFORMANCE RESULTS
The performance statistics for the four rural models for 1975 and 1976
are presented in detail in the Appendices. Because the material is too
voluminous to discuss easily, a series of summary tables analogous to those
presented in the Clifty Creek report are shown. Table 1, which is derived
from the information contained in Appendix A, compares the bias of each
model for the 25 highest observed and predicted concentrations. Table 2,
which was derived from Appendix B, compares the bias of each model using
all concentration data. Table 3, which was derived from Appendix C and
Appendix D, compares the ability of each model to predict the highest
concentrations.
From Table 1 for the 25 highest values, it appears that the four models
follow the same general trend observed for Clifty Creek. The models as a
group, tend to overpredict 1-hour averages, overpredict to a lesser extent
3-hour averages, and slightly underpredict 24-hour average concentrations.
PPSP is the exception to this general rule in that the 25 highest observed
values are overpredicted for all three averaging periods for both 1975 and
1976. From the meteorological subsets, it appears that the models tend to
overpredict for unstable conditions and for lower wind speeds and tend to
underpredict for stable conditions and for higher wind speeds.
From Table 2 for the all-data category, the results for the four models
again appear similar to those obtained for Clifty Creek. The models (except
for PPSP) tend to underpredict for all three averaging periods for both 1975
and 1976. Trends in the results for different meteorological subsets are
much less pronounced than for the 25 highest, but overprediction is again
-------
indicated for unstable conditions despite the overall pattern of
underprediction.
The results shown in Table 3 are for maximum observed and predicted
concentrations for each year and averaging period. The first pair of con-
centrations, and their residuals, compare single highest observed and pre-
dicted values over all events and locations; the second pair of concentra-
tions, and their residuals, compare the 4-station average of the maximum
observed and predicted values occurring during each year. The single-
valued residuals are reasonably consistent with results for the 25 highest
concentration comparisons, considering that, the single-valued comparisons
are "non-robust" and thus highly variable from a statistical point of view.
Again, at one extreme, 1-hour averages tend to be overpredicted while, at
the other extreme, 24-hour averages tend to be underpredicted. Results
for comparison of the 4-station average maximum concentrations show similar
patterns, i.e., 1-hour averages tend to be overpredicted while 24-hour
averages tend to be slightly underpredicted.
10
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SECTION 4
CONCLUSIONS
The evaluation of 4 rural models using data collected around the
Muskingum River Power Plant revealed levels and patterns of model perfor-
mance that are quite similar to those observed for the Clifty Creek plant.
Generally, highest 1-hour concentrations were overpredicted by all four
models, while highest 24-hour concentrations were slightly underpredicted.
Greatest overpredictions occurred during unstable conditions and for lower
wind speeds, while greatest underpredictions occurred during the more stable
hours and for the higher wind speeds.
Although no formal tests of significance were used to distinguish
levels of performance among the four models, it appeared that PPSP consis-
tently overpredicted concentrations relative to the other models, while
TEM-8A tended towards underprediction. The performance of MPSDM and MPTER,
varied among the averaging periods and meteorological subsets, but tended
on average to be relatively unbiased compared to the other two models.
A clear need exists to continue the evaluation process to include
additional data bases and varying meteorological and environmental settings.
Supplementing of these evaluations with additional analysis and data bases
will help provide a firm technical basis for establishing levels of uncer-
tainty in air quality models and strengthening confidence in estimates used
for regulatory purposes.
29
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REFERENCES
1. Londergan, R. J., D. H. Minott, D. J. Wackter, T. Kincald and D. Bonitata,
1982. Evaluation of Rural Air Quality Simulation Models. EPA Publication
No. EPA-450/4-83-003. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research
Triangle Park, N.C. (NTIS No. PB 83-182758).
2. Fox, D. G. 1981. Judging Air Quality Model Performance (A Summary of
the AMS Workshop on Dispersion Model .Performance, Woods Hole, Mass.,
September 8-11, 1980). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 62, 599-609.
3. Appendix G. Statistical Tables for PPSP. Published as an addendum to the
report cited above in Reference 1.
4. Mills, M. T. 1979. Data Base for the Evaluation of Short Range Dispersion
Models. R-001-EPA-79, Teknekron, Inc., Berkeley, CA.
5. United States Environmental Protection Agency, 1977. User's Manual for
Single Source (CRSTER) Model. EPA-450/2-77-013, Monitoring and Data
Analysis Division, Research Triangle Park, N.C.
30
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APPENDIX A
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