United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
EPA-450/4-84-002
March 1984
Air
National Air Quality and
Emissions Trends Report,
1982
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
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EPA 450/4-84-002
NATIONAL AIR QUALITY AND EMISSION
TRENDS REPORT, 1982
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air and Radiation
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
March 1984
.! -v.r.^-i'cn Agency
US. Environment - .~-^-1 &
Region V, ! ' ""' ..^^
230 :V;:V' - ' ; "w
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DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for publication.
Mention of trade names or commercial products is not intended to constitute
endorsement or recommendation for use.
U,S, Environment^ Pretsctlnn
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PREFACE
This is the tenth annual report of air pollution trends issued by
the Monitoring and Data Analysis Division of the U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency. The report is directed toward both the technical
air pollution audience and the interested general public. The Division
solicits comments on this report and welcomes suggestions on our trend
techniques, interpretations, conclusions, and methods of presentation.
Please forward any response to William F. Hunt, Jr., (MD-14) U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Monitoring and Data Analysis Division,
Research Triangle Park, N. C. 27711.
The Monitoring and Data Analysis Division would like to acknowledge
William F. Hunt, Jr., for the overall management, coordination, and
direction given in assembling this report. Special mention should also
be given to Helen Hinton for typing the report and Alison Pollack,
Systems Applications, Incorporated for the calculation of confidence
intervals and the preparation of graphics.
The following people are recognized for their contributions to
each of the sections of the report as principal authors:
H. Frank
Also deserving special thanks are Edward Mask for assembling the
air quality data base and Chuck Mann for the emission trend analyses.
Section
Section
Section
Section
1
2
3
4
- William
- Wi 11 i am
- Thomas
- William
F.
F.
C.
F.
Hunt,
Hunt,
Curran
Hunt,
Jr. and
Jr.
, Robert
Jr. and
Robert E.
B. Faoro,
Robert B.
Neligan
and Neil
Faoro
111
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CONTENTS
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS vi
LIST OF TABLES x
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
1.1 INTRODUCTION 2
1.2 MAJOR FINDINGS 3
1.3 REFERENCES 13
2. INTRODUCTION 14
2.1 DATA BASE 16
2.2 TREND STATISTICS 17
2.3 REFERENCES 21
3. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL TRENDS IN CRITERIA POLLUTANTS 22
3.1 TRENDS IN TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATE 26
3.2 TRENDS IN SULFUR DIOXIDE 32
3.3 TRENDS IN CARBON MONOXIDE 42
3.4 TRENDS IN NITROGEN DIOXIDE 49
3.5 TRENDS IN OZONE 55
3.6 TRENDS IN LEAD 62
3.7 REFERENCES 70
4. AIR QUALITY LEVELS IN STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREAS 72
4.1 SUMMARY STATISTICS 72
4.2 AIR QUALITY SMSA COMPARISONS 73
4.2 REFERENCES 74
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FIGURES
Figures Page
1-1 National Trends in the Composite Average of the Geometric 3
Mean Total Suspended Particulate at Both NAMS and All Sites,
1975-1982.
1-2 National Trend in Particulate Emissions, 1975-1982. 3
1-3 National Trend in the Annual Average Sulfur Dioxide 4
Concentration at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1982.
1-4 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second-Highest 4
24-hour Sulfur Dioxide Concentration at Both NAMS and
All Sites, 1975-1982.
5
1-5 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Estimated
Number of Exceedances of the 24-hour Sulfur Dioxide NAAQS
at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1982.
1-6 National Trend in Emissions of Sulfur Oxides, 1975-1982. 5
1-7 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second-Highest 6
Nonoverlapping 8-hour Average Carbon Monoxide Concentration
at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1982.
1-8 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Estimated 7
Number of Exceedances of the 8-hour Carbon Monoxide NAAQS
at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1982.
1-9 National Trend in Emissions of Carbon Monoxide, 1975-1982. 7
1-10 National Trend in the Composite Average of Nitrogen Dioxide 8
Concentration at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1982.
1-11 National Trend in Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides, 1975-1982. 9
1-12 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second-Highest 10
Daily Maximum 1-hour Ozone Concentration at Both NAMS and All
Sites, 1975-1982.
1-13 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Number of Daily 11
Exceedances of the Ozone NAAQS in the Ozone Season at Both NAMS
and All Sites, 1975-1982.
%
1-14 National Trend in Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds, 11
1975-1982.
1-15 National Trend in Maximum Quarterly Average Lead Levels at 46 12
Sites (1975-1982) and 214 Sites (1979-1982).
1-16 Lead Consumed in Gasoline, 1975-1982. 12
(Sales to the Military Excluded)
vi
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Fi gures Page
2-1 Ten Regions of the U.S. Environmental Protection 18
Agency
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Figures Page
3-1 Sample Illustration of Use of Confidence Intervals to 23
Determine Statistically Significant Change.
3-2 Illustration of Plotting Conventions for Box Plots. 24
3-3 National Trends in the Composite Average of the Geometric 27
Mean Total Suspended Particulate at Both NAMS and All
Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals, 1975-1982.
3-4 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Annual Geometric Mean 29
Total Suspended Particulate Concentrations at 1768
Sites, 1975-1982.
3-5 National Trend in Particulate Emissions, 1975-1982. 30
3-6 Regional Comparison of the 1978 and 1982 Composite Average 31
of the Geometric Mean Total Suspended Particulate.
3-7 National Trend in the Annual Average Sulfur Dioxide 33
Concentration at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95%
Confidence Intervals, 1975-1982.
3-8 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second-Highest 34
24-hour Sulfur Dioxide Concentration at Both NAMS and All
Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals, 1975-1982.
3-9 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Estimated 35
Number of Exceedances of the 24-hour Sulfur Dioxide NAAQS
at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals,
1975-1982.
3-10 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Annual Mean Sulfur 37
Dioxide Concentration at 344 Sites, 1975-1982.
3-11 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Second Highest 24-hour 38
Average Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations at 344 Sites,
1975-1982.
3-12 National Trend in Sulfur Oxide Emissions, 1975-1982. 39
3-13 Regional Comparison of the 1975-78 and 1979-82 Composite 41
Average of the Annual Average Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations.
3-14 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second-Highest 43
Nonoverlapping 8-Hour Average Carbon Monoxide Concentration
at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals,
1975-1982
viii
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Figures £age
3-15 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Second-Highest Non- 44
overlapping 8-hour Average Carbon Monoxide Concentrations
at 196 Sites, 1975-1982.
3-16 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Estimated 45
Number of Exceedances of the 8-hour Carbon Monoxide NAAQS
at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals,
1975-1982.
3-17 National Trend in Emissions of Carbon Monoxide, 1975-1982. 47
3-18 Regional Comparison of the 1975-78 and 1979-82 Composite 48
Average of the Second-Highest Non-Overlapping 8-hour
Carbon Monoxide Concentration.
3-19 National Trend in the Composite Average of Nitrogen Dioxide 50
Concentration at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence
Intervals, 1975-1982.
3-20 National Trend in Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides, 1975-1982. 51
3-21 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Annual Mean Nitrogen 52
Dioxide Concentrations at 276 Sites, 1975-1982.
3-22 Regional Comparison of the 1975-78 and 1979-82 Composite 53
Average of Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations.
3-23 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second- 56
Highest Daily Maximum 1-hour Ozone Concentration at Both
NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals,
1975-1982.
3-24 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Annual Second-Highest Daily 57
Maximum 1-hour Ozone Concentrations at 193 Sites, 1975-1982.
3-25 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Estimated 58
Number of Daily Exceedances of the Ozone NAAQS in the Ozone
Season at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence
Intervals, 1975-1982.
3-26 National Trend in Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds, 60
1975-1982.
3-27 Regional Comparison of the 1979-80 and 1981-82 Composite 61
Average of the Second-Highest Daily 1-hour Ozone
Concentration.
i x
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Figures Page
3-28 National Trend in Maximum Quarterly Average Lead Levels 63
with 95% Confidence Intervals at 46 Sites (1975-1982)
and 214 Sites (1979-1982).
3-29 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Maximum Quarterly Lead 64
Levels at 46 Sites, 1975-1982.
3-30 Lead Consumed in Gasoline, 1975-1982. 66
(Sales to The Military Excluded)
3-31 National Trend in Maximum Quarterly Average Lead Levels 67
with 95% Confidence Intervals at Both NAMS and All Sites,
1979-1982.
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TABLES
Tables Page
2-1 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). 15
2-2 Comparison of Regional Population and the 19
Distribution of Trend Sites by Pollutant.
3-1 National Particulate Emission Estimates, 30
1975-1982.
3-2 National Sulfur Oxide Emission Estimates, 39
1975-1982.
3-3 National Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimates, 47
1975-1982.
3-4 National Nitrogen Oxide Emission Estimates, 51
1975-1982.
3-5 National Volatile Organic Compound Oxide 60
Emission Estimates, 1975-1982.
4-1 Air Quality Summary Statistics and Their 71
Associated National Ambient Air Quality
Standards {NAAQS).
4-2 Highest Annual Geometric Mean Suspended 73
Particulate Concentration by SMSA, 1980-1982.
4-3 Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean Sulfur Dioxide 81
Concentration by SMSA, 1980-1982.
4-4 Highest Second Maximum 24-hour Average Sulfur 89
Dioxide Concentration by SMSA, 1980-1982.
4-5 Highest Second Maximum Nonoverlapping 8-hour 97
Average Carbon Monoxide Concentration by SMSA,
1980-1982.
4-6 Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean Nitrogen Dioxide 105
Concentration by SMSA, 1980-1982.
4-7 Highest Second Daily Maximum 1-hour Average Ozone 113
Concentration by SMSA, 1980-1982.
4-8 Highest Maximum Quarterly Average Lead Concentration 121
by SMSA, 1980-1982.
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NATIONAL AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS TRENDS REPORT, 1982
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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2
NATIONAL AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS TRENDS REPORT. 1982
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 .1 INTRODUCTION
National long-term (1975 through 1982) improvements can be seen
for sulfur dioxide ($02), carbon monoxide (CO), and lead (Pb). Similar
improvements have been documented in earlier air quality trends reports,1~9
issued by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Improvements can
also be seen for ozone (03) and nitrogen dioxide (N02) in the period
1979 through 1982 and for total suspended particulate (TSP) between
1978 and 1982.
The trend in 03 is complicated by a major drop in measured
concentration levels which occurred between 1978 and 1979. largely due
to a change in the 03 measurement calibration procedure. Therefore,
special attention is given to the 1979 through 1982 period, because the
change in the calibration procedure is not an influence during this
period.
The trend in TSP is complicated by the fact that the glass fiber
filters used to collect TSP data were changed in 1978, 1979, and again in
1982. Although the filters used in 1978 and 1982 were comparable, the
filters used during 1979, 1980, and 1981 were different.11 Therefore,
special attention is given to the trend from 1978 to 1982, with less
credence given to the intervening years.
In the ambient air quality trend analyses which follow, the National
Air Monitoring Sites (NAMS) are compared with all the air monitoring
sites meeting trends criteria. The NAMS provide accurate and timely
data to EPA from a stream-1ined, high quality, more cost-effective,
national air monitoring network. They are located in areas with high
pollutant concentrations, high population exposure, or a combination of
both. Because the NAMS are located in the more heavily polluted areas,
the pollutant-specific trend lines for the NAMS are higher than the
trend lines for all the trend sites taken together. In general, the
rates of improvement observed at the NAMS are very similar to the rates
of improvement observed at all the trend sites.
All of the ambient air quality trend analyses, which follow,
are based on monitoring sites which recorded at least 6 of the 8 years
of data in the period 1975 to 1982. Each year had to satisfy an annual
data completeness criteria, which is discussed in Section 2.1, Data
Base.
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1.2 MAJOR FINDINGS
Total Suspended Participate (TSP) - Annual average TSP levels
measured at 1768 sites decreased 15 percent between 1975 and 1982
(Figure 1-1). This corresponds to a 27 percent decrease in estimated
TSP emissions for the same period (Figure 1-2). TSP air quality levels
generally do not improve in direct proportion to estimated emissions
reductions, because air quality levels are influenced by factors such
as natural dust, restrained street dust, construction activity, etc,
which are not included in the emissions estimates. Since 1977, the
glass filters used throughout the nation at TSP monitoring sites have
been centrally procured by EPA for the State and local agencies in
order to obtain uniformity in TSP collection nationwide at reduced
cost. The filters used in 1979, 1980 and 1981 were found to record
higher values than the filters used in 1978 and 1982, because of higher
filter alkalinity, which is related to artifact error.11 The filters used
in 1978 and 1982 were supplied by the same manufacturer and found to be
comparable based on similar alkalinity levels. Therefore, although the
air quality values for 1979, 1980 and 1981 are probably biased high,
the trend between 1978 and 1982 is valid. The air quality improvement
between 1978 and 1982 is due not only to reductions in TSP emissions,
but also to more favorable meteorology in 1982. An analysis of meteoro-
logical conditions for 1982 indicated a potential for lower TSP concentra-
tions due to abnormally high precipitation.
si.
II.
ft.
HHHS SITES 13171
69. H
.60. 0.
fiLL SITES 11768)
197S - 2981 averages may be too high (see Text)
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1961 1981 19t!
1975 1976 1977 197S 1979 1980 1981 1982
YfPR
FIGURE 1-1. NRTIONfiL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE PVERfiGE OF THE
GEOMETRIC MEF1N TOTflL SUSPENDED =flRTICULRTE
RT BOTH NflMS UNO HLL SITES. IS75 -1982.
FUCl COH6U5T10H
HfRH iNOunrifiL f/tocfssf5 KNNj SOLIO uasrf RHS KJsccLLfafou:
^l^UJ K\\1
FIGURE 1-2. NfiTIONflL TREND IN PflRTICUlflTE EMISSIONS. 1975-1982.
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Sulfur Dioxide (SO?) - Annual average S02 levels measured at 351
sites with continuous $62 monitors decreased 33 percent from 1975 to
1982 (Figure 1-3). A comparable decrease of 39 percent was observed in
the trend in the composite average of the second maximum 24-hour averages
(Figure 1-4). An even greater improvement was observed in the estimated
number of exceedances of the 24-hour standard, which decreased 91
percent (Figure 1-5). Correspondingly, there was a 17 percent drop in
sulfur oxide emissions (Figure 1-6). The difference between emissions
and air quality trends arises because the use of high sulfur fuels was
shifted from power plants in urban areas, where most of the monitors
are, to power plants in rural areas which have fewer monitors. Further,
the residential and commercial areas, where the monitors are located,
have shown sulfur oxide emission decreases comparable to S02 air quality
improvements. These decreases in sulfur oxide emissions are due to a
combination of energy conservation measures and the use of cleaner
fuels in the residential and commercial areas.
1.13
e.tia
-MUMS SITES iaai
ffLL SfTES (3511
1.1?
t.lg
B.04
-NRM5 SITES igS>
t>LL SITES [341J
1975
1377
1175
1977
1978 1979
YEflK
FIGURE 1-3. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE ANNURl flVERRGE SULFUR DIOXIDE
CONCENTRHTION BT BOTH NflMS flND flLL SITES. 1975 - 1952
FIGURE 1-4. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE fiVERHCE OF THE
SECOND-HIGHEST 24-HOUR SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRST!ON
flT BOTH NflMS flND flLL SITES. 1975 - 1982.
-------
s '
§
-1.99
1.1
-Nans sires tasi
-ML sfTfs ran/
f. 76
I
I
I
I
I
t.17
*B.ei
J97S 197S 1977 1978 1979 1981 1981 1982
FIGURE 1-5. NflTIONRL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE RVERRGE OF THE ESTIMRTEO
NUMBER OF EXCEEDRNCES OF THE 24-HOUR SULFUR DIOXIDE NflflOS
AT BOTH NflMS RND HLL SITES. 1975 - 1982.
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198t 1981 1982
ruft censusTIon
^^ imus rti'at
FIGURE 1-6. NRTIONflL TREND IN SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS. 1975-1982.
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Carbon Monoxide (CO) - Nationally, the second highest non-overlapping
8-hour average CO levels at 196 sites decreased at a rate of approximately
5 percent per year, with an overall reduction of 31 percent between
1975 and 1982 (Figure 1-7). An even greater improvement was observed
in the estimated number of exceedances, which decreased 87 percent
(Figure 1-8). CO emissions decreased 11 percent during the same period
(Figure 1-9). Because CO monitors are typically located to identify
potential problems, they are likely to be placed in traffic saturated
areas that may not experience significant increases in vehicle miles of
travel. As a result, the air quality levels at these locations generally
improve at a rate faster than the nationwide reduction in emissions.
IB. B
8. 01 -
HUMS SITES till
flLL SITES 11361
\
\
1975
1976
1977
1978 1979
YEPK
1930
1981
1982
FIGURE 1-7. NHTIONHt TREND IN THE COMPOSITE HVERflGE OF THE
SECOND HIGHEST NONOVERLRPPING 8-HOUR RVERflGE CflRBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATION
PT BOTH NflMS flND flLL SITES. 1975 - 1982.
-------
se.e
3f.t
Zi.t
II. 0
-N0M5 SITES till
PLL SITfS (1961
12.3
31.1
1375
197S
1977 1978 1979
rem*
198t 1981
FIGURE 1-8. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE RVERflGE OF THE ESTIMflTED
NUMBER OF EXCEEDflNCES OF THE 8-HOUR CftRBON MONOXIDE NflflOS
BT BOTH NflMS flND OLL SITES. 1975 - 1982.
I
S
i
1976 1977 1978 1979 1981 1981 1992
^ffl[ SOL ic itasrc. fuft. COHIUSTION HMD HISCCLLKHCOUS
FIGURE 1-9. NPTIONRL TREND IN EMISSIONS OF CflRBON MONOXIDE. 1975-1982.
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Nitrogen Dioxide (N02J - Annual average NC>2 levels, measured at
276 sites, Increased from 1975 to 1979 and then began declining
(Figure 1-10). The 1982 ambient NC>2 levels are equivalent to the 1975
levels, so that there is no long-term change. While the trend pattern
in the estimated nationwide emissions of nitrogen oxides is similar to
the N02 air quality trend pattern, nitrogen oxides emissions increased
5 percent between 1975 and 1982 (Figure 1-11). Between 1979 and 1982
both ambient N02 levels and nitrogen oxide emissions showed reductions
of 7 and 5 percent, respectively.
I. as
uaaos
0.03L
B.02B
-NRHS SITES IJ1J
-»U SITES 127BI
J97S 197S 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
FIGURE 1-18. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERHGE OF
NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION
flT BOTH NRMS BND flLL SITES. 1975 - 1982.
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975 1976 1977 1976 1979 1980 1981 1982
TfaHSfOfTKTIOH
FUfL COHBUSriON
Km 1MDUSTR1HL ntOCFSSCS. SOL 1C HfiSIC HUD HISCCLLRHCOUS
mfl)
FIGURE 1-11. NflTIONflL TREND IN EMISSIONS OF NITROGEN OXIDES.-1975-1982.
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10
Ozone (03) - Nationally, the composite average of the second-
highest daily maximum 1-hour Oj values, recorded at 193 sites, decreased
18 percent between 1975 and 1982 (Figure 1-12). An even greater
improvement was observed in the estimated number of exceedances in the
ozone season (July-September), which decreased 49 percent (Figure 1-
13). Volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions decreased 13 percent
during the same time period (Figure 1-14). The greater improvement
observed in ozone levels than emissions may be due, in part, to the
non-linear relationship between VOC emissions and ambient ozone levels,
and also the change in the calibration procedure which took place
between 1978 and 1979. To eliminate the influence of the calibration
change, trends were examined for the 1979-1982 time period. Ozone
levels improved by 9 percent from 1979 to 1982, a period which was not
influenced by the calibration change.
1.1
HMOS
0. 131
1. 127
-HUMS SITES 1611
HLL SITES 11331
1S76
1978 1979
rea/t
1982
FIGURE 1-12. NRTIONRL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERRGE OF THE
SECOND HIGHEST DRILY HRXIMUM 1-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRflTION
RT BOTH NflMS RND RLL SITES. 1975 - 1982.
-------
11
I
jl 15.0
fc H.B
S.g
IB. 1
13.6
-NfiHS SITES (611
HLL SITES 11931
J976
1977
1978 1979
YfHK
FIGURE 1-13. NflTIONHL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE RVERflGE OF THE
NUMBER OF DRILY EXCEEDflNCES OF THE OZONE NflflOS IN THE
OZONE SEflSON flT BOTH NflMS HND RLL SITES. 1975 - 1982.
975 1376 1977 1978 1979 1981 1981 19B2
SOLID HRSTC HMD HlSCliLOHfOUS
NON INDUS THIRL ORGANIC SOLVENT
FIGURE 1-H. NRTIONflL TREND IN EMISS-IONS OF
VOLflTILE ORGflNIC COMPOUNDS. 1975-1982.
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12
Lead (PB) - The composite maximum quarterly average of ambient
lead levels, recorded at 46 urban sites, decreased 64 percent between
1975 and 1982 (Figure 1-15). This sample of sites satisfied a minimum
of 6 years of data in the 1975-82 time period and were heavily weighted
by sites in Texas (51 percent) and Pennsylvania (23 percent). In all a
total of only six states were represented in the sample. In order to
increase the number of sites and their geographical representativeness
lead trends were studied again over the 1979-82 time period. A total
of 214 urban sites from 21 states satisfied the minimum data requirement
of at least 3 out of the 4 years of data. An improvement in ambient
lead concentrations of 43 percent was observed at these sites as compared
with an improvement of 54 percent for the 46 sites mentioned above over this
same 1979-82 period. Even this larger group of sites was disproportionately
weighted by sites in California, Pennsylvania, Texas, Arizona, Illinois,
and Minnesota. These six states accounted for almost 79 percent of the
214 sites represented. The lead consumed in gasoline dropped 69 percent
from 1975-82, primarily due to the use of unleaded gasoline in catalyst
equipped cars and the reduced lead content in leaded gasoline (Figure
1-16).
1
1.2
0.88
MM0S
«ff SITES C1975 - 19821
ZH SITES fl979 - 19821
ise.
St.
1977
1978
1979
1975. 197S.
isai. 1982.
FIGURE 1-15. NflTIONflL TREND IN MflXIMUM OUflRTERLY HVERflGE
LEflD LEVELS flT 46 SITES (1975 - 1982) flND 211 SITES 11979 - 19821.
FIGURE 1-16. LERD CONSUMED IN GRSOL1NE, 1975 - 1982.
(SPILES TO THE MILITBRY EXCLUDED)
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13
1.3 REFERENCES
1. The National Air Monitoring Program: Air Quality and Emissions
Trends - Annual Report, Volumes 1 and 2. U. S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. Research Triangle
Park, N.C. Publication No. EPA-450/l-73-001a and b. July 1973.
2. Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1972. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, N.C. Publication No. EPA-450/1-73-004. December 1973.
3. Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1973. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, N.C. Publication No. EPA-450/1-74-007. October 1974.
4. Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1974. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Reserach Triangle Park, N. C. Publication No. EPA 450/1-76-001. February
1976.
5. National Air Quality and Emission Trends Report, 1975. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, N.C. Publication No. EPA 450/1-76-002. November 1976.
6. National Air Quality and Emission Trends Report, 1976. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, N.C. Publication No. EPA-450/1-77-002. December 1977.
7. National Air Quality, Monitoring, and Emissions Trends Reports,
1977. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning
amTStandards, Research Triangle Park, N.C. Publication No. EPA-450/2-78-052.
December 1978.
8. 1980 Ambient Assessment - Air Portion. U. S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Air Quality PTanning and Standards. Research Triangle
Park, N. C. Publication No. EPA-450/4-81-014. February 1981.
9. National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1981. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, N. C. Publication No. EPA-450/4-83-011. April 1983.
10. Federal Register, Vol. 43, June 22, 1978, pp 26971-26975.
11. Hauser, Thomas R., U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, memorandum
to Richard G. Rhoads, January 11, 1984.
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2. INTRODUCTION
This report focuses on both long and short-term trends in each of
the major pollutants as well as Regional and, where appropriate, specific
Statewide air quality trends. Air quality trends are presented for
both the National Air Monitoring Sites (NAMS) and other site categories.
The NAMS were established through monitoring regulations promulgated in
May 1979^ to provide accurate and timely data to the U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) from a national air monitoring network. The
NAMS are located in areas with high pollutant concentrations, high population
exposure, or a combination of both. These stations meet uniform criteria
for siting, quality assurance, equivalent analytical methodology,
sampling intervals, and instrument selection to assure consistent data
reporting among the States. Other sites operated by the State and
local air pollution control agencies, such as the State and Local Air
Monitoring Sites (SLAMS) and Special Purpose Monitors (SPM), in general,
also meet the same rigid criteria, except that in addition to being
located in the area of highest concentration and high population
exposure, they are located in other areas as well.
In addition to ambient air quality, trends are also presented for
annual nationwide emissions. These emissions are estimated using the
best available engineering calculations; the ambient levels presented
are averages of direct measurements. The emission trends are taken
from the EPA publication, National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates,
1940-19822 and the reader is referred to this publication for more
detailed information.
Air quality progress is measured by comparing the ambient air
pollution levels with the appropriate primary and secondary National
Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for each of the pollutants (Table
2-1). Primary standards protect the public health; secondary standards
protect the public welfare as measured by effects of pollution on
vegetation, materials, and visibility. The standards are further
categorized for long or short term exposure. Long-term standards specify
an annual or quarterly mean that may not be exceeded; short-term standards
specify upper limit values for 1-, 3-, 8-, or 24-hour averages. With
the exception of the pollutant ozone, the short-term standards are not
to be exceeded more than once per year. The ozone standard requires
that the expected number of days per calendar year with daily maximum
hourly concentrations exceeding 0.12 parts per million (ppm) be less
than or equal to one.
The last section of this report, Air Quality Levels in Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's); provides interested members of
the air pollution control community, the private sector and the general
public with greatly simplified air pollution information. Air quality
statistics are presented for each of the pollutants for all SMSA's with
populations exceeding 500,000 for the years 1980, 1981 and 1982.
-------
15
TABLE 2-1. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
POLLUTANT
TSP
SO,
CO
NO 2
03
Pb
PRIMARY (HEALTH RELATED)
AVERAGING TIME CONCENTRATION
Annual Geometric
Mean
24-hour
Annual Arithmetic
Mean
24-hour
8-hour
1-hour
Annual Arithmetic
Mean
75 ug/m3
260 ug/m3
(0.03 pan)
80 ug/m3
(0.14 ppm)
365 ug/m3
(9 ppm)
10 mg/m3
(35 ppm)
40 mg/m3
(0.053 ppm)
100 ug/m3
Maximum Daily 1-hour (0.12 ppm)
Average 235 ug/m3
Maximum Quarterly 1.5 ug/m3
Average
SECONDARY (WELFARE RELATED)
AVERAGING TIME CONCENTRATION
Annual Geometric
Mean
24-hour
3-hour
60 ug/m3*
150 ug/m3
1300 uq/m3
(0.50 ppm)
Same as Primary
Same as Primary
Same as Primary
Same as Primary
Same as Primary
*This annual geometric mean is a guide to be used in assessing
implementation plans to achieve the 24-hour standard of 150 ug/m3.
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16
2.1 DATA BASE
The ambient air quality data used in this report were obtained
from EPA's National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB). Air quality data are
submitted to the NADB by both State and local governments, as well as
federal agencies. At the present time, there are over 250 million air
pollution measurements on the NADB, the vast majority of which represent
the more heavily populated urban areas of the Nation.
As in last year's report^, the size of the available air quality
trends data base has been expanded by merging data at sites which have
experienced changes in the agency operating the site, the instrument
used, or a change in the project code, such as a change from residential
to commercial. A discussion of the impact of the merging of the air
quality data is presented in each of the individual pollutant discussions.
In order for a monitoring site to have been included in this
analysis, the site had to contain at least 6 out of the 8 years of data
in the period 1975 to 1982. Each year with data had to satisfy an
annual data completeness criterion. To begin with, the air quality data
are divided into two major groupings -- 24-hour measurements and
continuous 1-hour measurements. The 24-hour measurements are obtained
from monitoring instruments that produce one measurement per 24-hour
period and are operated on a systematic sampling schedule of once
every 6 days or 61 samples per year. Such instruments are used to
measure TSP, S02, N02, and Pb. For these measurement methods, the NADB
defines a valid quarter's record as one consisting of at least five
sample measurements representively distributed among the months of that
quarter. Distributions of measurements that show no samples in 2 months
of a quarter or that show no samples in 1 month and only one sample in
another month are judged unacceptable for calculating a representative
estimate of the mean. A valid annual mean for TSP, SOg and N02, measured
with this type of sampler, requires four valid quarters to satisfy the
NADB criteria. For the pollutant lead, the data used has to satisfy
the criteria for a valid quarter in at least 3 of the 4 possible quarters
in a year.
The 1-hour data are obtained from monitoring instruments that
operate continuously, producing a measurement every hour for a possible
total of 8760 hourly measurements in a year. For continuous hourly
data, a valid annual mean for S02 and N02 requires at least 4380 hourly
observations. In the case of the NAAQS related statistics - the second
maximum 24-hour S02 average, and the second maximum nonoverlapping 8-hour
CO average - the same annual data completeness criterion of 4380 hours
was required. This criterion was also used to calculate the estimated
number of exceedances of the 24-hour average S02 and the 8-hour average
CO standards.
-------
17
Finally, because of the seasonal nature of ozone, both the
second daily maximum 1-hour value and the estimated number of exceedances
of the 03 NAAQS was calculated for the ozone season, which varies by
state.4 For example, in California the ozone season is defined as 12
months, January through December, while in New Jersey it is defined as 7
months, April through October. In order for a site to be included it
had to have at least 50 percent of the hourly data in the ozone season.
For all the pollutants, the site must satisfy the annual completeness
criterion, specified above, in at least 6 out of 8 years to be included
in the air quality trends data base.
In performing the national trend analyses, which follow, each site
was weighted equally. The trend sites can be found in all 10 EPA Regions
(Figure 2-1) with the exception of the 53 lead sites used for the long
term trend analysis, 1975-1982. A comparison was made between EPA
Regional population and the distribution of trend sites by pollutant
(Table 2-2). Spearman rank correlation coefficients were computed^,
relating the 1980 Regional population with the number of trend sites.
With the exception of the lead sites, statistically significant relation-
ships were found between the distribution of trend sites and Regional
population. This suggests that there is a relationship between population
and the distribution of monitoring sites, as would be expected. In
general, the trend sites are located in populated areas which have
experienced air pollution problems. The data base for the lead trend
sites is heavily weighted by concentrations of monitors in a relatively
small number of States. This is addressed in the lead trends section of
the report (Section 3.6).
2.2 TREND STATISTICS
The air quality analyses presented in this report comply with the
recommendations of the Intra-Agency Task Force on Air Quality Indicators.^
This task force was established in January 1980 to recommend standardized
air quality indicators and statistical methodologies for presenting air
quality status and trends. The Task Force report was published in
February 1981. The air quality statistics used in these pollutant-
specific trend analyses relate directly to the appropriate NAAQS1s.
Two types of standard-related statistics are used - peak statistics
(the second maximum 24-hour S02 average, the second maximum nonoverlapping
8-hour CO average, and the second daily maximum 1-hour 03 average) and
long-term averages (the annual geometric mean for TSP, the annual
arithmetic means for S02 and N02, and the quarterly arithmetic mean for
lead). In the case of the peak statistics, the second maximum value is used,
because this is the value which traditionally has been used to determine
whether or not a site has or has not violated an air quality standard
in a particular year, and, therefore, the second maximum value is of
significant importance. A composite average of each of these statistics
is used, by averaging each statistic over all available trend sites, in
the graphical presentations which follow.
-------
"XT "*=*»
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HAWAII,
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Fi gure 2-1. Ten regions of the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency.
-------
19
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In addition to the standard related statistics, other statistics are
used, when appropriate, to further clarify observed air quality trends.
Particular attention is given to the estimated number of exceedances of
the short-term NAAQS's. The estimated number of exceedances is the
measured number of exceedances adjusted to account for incomplete sampling,
The emission data are reported as teragrams (one million metric
tons) emitted to the atmosphere per year.2 These are estimates of the
amount and kinds of pollution being generated by automobiles, factories,
and other sources, based upon the best available engineering calculations
for a given time period.
-------
REFERENCES
1. Federal Register, Vol. 44, May 10, 1979, pp 27558-27604
2. National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940-1982. U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, Research Triangle Park, N.C. Publication No. EPA-450/4-83-024.
February 1984.
3. National Air Quality and Emission Trends Report, 1981. U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, Research Triangle Park, N.C. Publication No. EPA-450/4-83-011.
April 1983.
4. Rhoads, Richard G., U. S. Environmental Protection Agency,
memorandum to the Director of the Environmental Services Divisions and
Air and Waste Management Divisions, EPA Regions I through X, December 15,
1982.
5. Dixon, W. J. and F. J. Massey (1957). Introduction to Statistical
Analysis, New York, McGraw-Hill.
6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Intra-Agency Task Force
Report on Air Quality Indicators. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, N.C.
Publication No. EPA-450/81-015. February 1981.
-------
22
3. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL TRENDS IN CRITERIA POLLUTANTS
This chapter focuses on long-term trends in each of the six major
pollutants. Comparisons are made between all the trend sites and the
subset of NAMS. Trends are examined for both the Nation and the ten
EPA Regions. Where appropriate, trend analyses are also presented for
selected States.
The air quality trends data base has been expanded for all pollutants
by merging data at sites which have experienced changes in the agency
operating the site, the instrument used, or the designation of the
project code, such as residential to commercial. The impact of merging
the air quality data is discussed in each of the individual pollutant
discussions.
The air quality trends information is presented using trend lines,
confidence intervals, Box plots! and bar graphs. This report introduces
statistical confidence intervals to facilitate a better understanding
of measured changes in air quality. Confidence intervals are placed
around composite averages, which are based on sites that satisfy annual
data completeness requirements. The confidence intervals can be used
to make comparisons between years; if the confidence intervals for any
2 years do not overlap, then the composite averages of the 2 years are
significantly different (Figure 3-1). Ninety-five percent confidence
intervals for composite averages of annual means (arithmetic and geometric)
and second maxima were calculated with a repeated measures analysis of
variance followed by an application of the Tukey Studentized Range.2
The confidence intervals for composite averages of estimated exceedances
were calculated by fitting Poisson distributions^ to the exceedances
each year and then applying the Bonferroni multiple comparisons
procedure.4 The utilization of these procedures will be explained in a
forthcoming publication by Pollack, Hunt and Curran.5
The Box plots have the advantage of displaying, simultaneously,
several features of the data. Figure 3-2 illustrates the use of this
technique in presenting the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, 90th
and 95th percentiles of the data, as well as the composite average.
The 5th, 10th and 25th percentiles depict the "cleaner" sites. The
75th, 90th and 95th depict the "dirtier" sites, and the median and
average describe the "typical" sites. For example, 90 percent of the
sites would have concentrations lower than the 90th percentile. Although
the average and median both characterize typical behavior, the median
has the advantage of not being affected by a few extremely high
observations. The use of the Box plots allow us to simultaneously compare
trends in the "cleaner", "typical" and "dirtier" sites. Bar graphs are
used for the Regional comparisons. The composite average of the appropriate
air quality statistic of the earlier time period is compared with the
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23
COMPOSITE MEAN OF AIR
POLLUTION STATISTIC
-------
95th PERCENTILE
90th PERCENTILE
75th PERCENTILE
COMPOSITE AVERAGE
MEDIAN
25th PERCENTILE
10th PERCENTILE
5th PERCENTILE
Figure 3-2. Illustration of plotting conventions for box plots.
-------
25
composite average of the later time period. The approach is simple and
it allows the reader at a glance to compare the long term trend in all
ten EPA Regions.
In addition to ambient air quality, trends are also presented for
annual nationwide emissions. These emissions data are estimated using
the best available engineering calculations.
In addition to the standard related statistics, other statistics
are used, when appropriate, to further clarify observed air quality
trends. ParticuHr attention is given to the estimated number of
exceedances of the short-term NAAQS's. The estimated number of
exceedances is the measured number of exceedances adjusted to account
for incomplete sampling.
The emission data are reported as teragrams (one million metric
tons) emitted to the atmosphere per year.3 These are estimates of the
amount and kinds of pollution being generated by automobiles, factories,
and other sources, based upon the best available engineering calculations
for a given time period.
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26
3.1 TRENDS IN TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICIPATE
TSP is a measure of suspended particles in the ambient air ranging
up to 25-45 micrometers in diameter. These particles originate from a
variety of stationary and mobile sources. TSP is measured using a "hi-
volume" sampler which simply measures the total ambient particle
concentration. It does not provide information regarding particle
size. There are both annual geometric mean and 24-hour National
Ambient Air Quality Standards for TSP. The annual geometric mean
standard is 75 micrograms per cubic meter (ug/nP) not to be exceeded
more than once per year. Because the annual mean is a more stable
estimation of air quality given the EPA recommended sampling frequency
of once every 6 days, only the annual mean is used as a trend statistic.
3.1.1 LONG-TERM TSP TRENDS. 1975-81
The 8-year trend in average TSP levels, 1975-1982, is shown in
Figure 3-3 for over 1700 sites geographically distributed throughout
the Nation and for the subset of 347 National Air Monitoring Stations
(NAMS) which are located in the large urban areas. The TSP levels are
expressed in terms of the composite average annual geometric mean.
The curves shown in Figure 3-3 indicate a very slight decrease in
composite levels from 1975-1981, followed by a sizeable decrease between
1981 and 1982. The NAMS sites show higher composite levels than the
sites for the Nation in general, but appear to show a similar pattern.
The composite average of TSP levels measured at 1768 sites nationally
decreased 15 percent during the 1975 to 1982 time period and the NAMS
decreased 19 percent. From the curves in Figure 3-3, it is clear that
most of this decrease occurred between the measured levels of 1981 and
1982.
The large decrease in measured levels between 1981 and 1982 have
prompted several investigations regarding the possible causes for this
decrease. These include a study of the changes in meteorological
conditions, emission levels, as well as possible changes in the measure-
ment process for TSP.6-9 jn particular, several investigations have
focused on the impact of possible differences in the glass fiber filters
used on the hi-volume sampler. Since 1977, the glass filters have been
centrally procured by EPA for the nation's monitoring sites for reasons of
nationwide uniformity and costs. The competitive procurement process
resulted in changes in the manufacturers of these filters three different
times: in 1978, 1979 and 1981. Although important filter specifications
were maintained throughout this period some physical characteristics of
the filters varied which in turn prompted studies by air pollution
control agencies to investigate the possible impact of the filter
changes on measured TSP concentrations.6'7
Considering the findings of the aforementioned investigators, EPA now
believes that the change in filter manufacturers has contributed, in
part, to the recent change in measured TSP levels.10 Differences in filter
alkalinity, cited by Witz et al. of the California South Coast Air
-------
27
1
i
s
*
70. -
60.
50.
30.
10.
NfiffOS
NRMS SITES f347J
69.4
ftLL SITES (1768J
19.73. - 19.81 averages may be too h-Cgh (.see Text)
I
I
I
I
I
1975 1976 1977
1978 1979
YEflK
1980 1981 1982
FIGURE 3-3. NflTIONOL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERRGE OF THE
GEOMETRIC MEflN TOTflL SUSPENDED PRRTICULflTE
flT BOTH NRMS RND RLL SITES WITH 95Z CONFIDENCE INTERVRLS, 1975 -1982,
-------
28
Management District appears to be a plausible explanation for differences
in measurements among the. different filter manufacturers. Alkalinity,
which was not previously included in EPA filters specifications, appears
to be a better predictor than hydrogen ion concentration (pH) of artifact
particulate matter formation (such as sul fates, nitrates and possibly
organic acids) which would inflate TSP measurements. The alkalinity
information is now available on glass fiber filters used during the
years in question and can now be considered in the evaluation of the
recent trend in measured TSP levels.10
Although the TSP trend analysis and the role of glass fiber filters
is still under active investigation, preliminary estimates can be provided
of the recent trend in ambient TSP levels. Using information on the
alkalinity of the filters provided for the nation's monitoring networks
from 1977 through 1982, it is reasonable to suspect that TSP levels for
the years 1979 through 1981 are biased high relative to 1978 and 1982.10
Fortunately, the similarity in alkalinity of the 1978 and 1982 filters and
the fact that they were produced by the same manufacturer, suggests that
the TSP levels for these years may be compared. It is reasonable,
therefore, to describe the recent trend in TSP levels in terms of the
change between 1978 and 1982.
In order to provide the best estimate of the improvement in TSP
between 1978 and 1982, 1278 sites were examined which measured TSP in
both years and satisfied the annual data completeness criteria in each
year. The composite mean of the 1278 sites decreased 20 percent with a
commensurate 21 percent for the subset of NAMS.
Figures 3-3 and 3-4 examine the air quality trend at 1768 sites
over the 1975-1982 time period. This was done to evaluate the 1978 and
1982 TSP levels in the context of the 8 year period, which is used for
all pollutants. Using 95 percent confidence intervals developed for
these data (Figure 3-3), it can be seen that the 1982 levels are signifi-
cantly lower than those of 1978. Box plots describing change in the
distribution of annual means at the 1768 trend sites show a decrease
in every percentile level (5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 90, and 95) between
1978 and 1982 (Figure 3-4). In addition, the range in air quality
concentrations, as described by the distance between percentiles, is
less in 1982 than in 1978. The pattern of the change for the intermediate
years will be difficult to assess. It seems reasonable to conclude
however, that a decrease in ambient TSP levels did occur between 1981
and 1982. Information from a geographically representative subset of
the nation's monitoring sites which had one co-located sampler which
used the same filter in both years, indicates that TSP concentrations
decreased approximately 5 percent.** Thus, it appears that most of the
decrease between 1981 and 1982 can be attributed to the filter change.
Nationwide TSP emission trends show an overall decrease of approxi-
mately 27 percent from 1975 to 1981. (See Table 3-1 and Figure 3-5).
Since 1978, however, the particulate matter (PM) emissions have decreased
16 percent which is comparable to the estimated decrease in ambient TSP
levels. The trend in PM emissions would not be expected to agree with
-------
29
100
90
80
«r>
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1
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0.
00 A f\
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30
20
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- 90
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1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
FIGURE- 3-4. BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN ANNUAL GEOMETRIC MEAN
TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATE CONCENTRATIONS AT 1768 SITES , 1975 - 1982.
-------
30
Table 3-1. National Particulate Emission Estimates, 1975-1982.
(106 metric tons/year)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
Source Category
Transportation
Fuel combustion
Industrial Processes 5.0
Solid Waste &
Miscellaneous
Total
1.4
2.6
5.0
1.3
1.4
2.4
4.4
1.4
1.4
2.4
4.0
1.2
1.4
2.3
4.0
1.2
1.4
2.5
3.8
1.3
1.4
2.5
3.2
1.5
1.4
2.6
2.8
1.3
1.3
2.4
2.4
1.4
10.3
9.6
9.0 8.9
9.0
8.6 8.1
7.5
I
375 1976 1977 1978 1979 J980 1981 198?
FUEL COHOUSTJON
BBS IHDUlTKiaL PROCESSES (OCO SOLID HflSJE flHD HISCELLHNCOUS
yum KX\I
FIGURE 3-5. NHTIONflL TREND IN PRRTICULflTE EMISSIONS, 1975-1982.
-------
31
the trend in ambient TSP levels due to unaccounted for natural PM
background and uniiwentoried emissions sources such as reentrained
dust. The apparent agreement between estimates of ambient air quality
and emissions may be due in part to the favorable role of meteorology
in 1982. An analysis of meteorological conditions for 1982 indicated a
potential for lower TSP concentrations due to abnormally high precipitation.
This would have had the effect of minimizing fugitive dust entrainment
and washing particles out of the air.
The reduction in particulate emissions occurred primarily because
of the reductions in industrial processes. This is attributed to a
combination of installation of control equipment and reduced industrial
activity. Other areas of TSP emission reductions include reduced coal
burning by non-utility users, installation of control equipment by
electric utilities that burn coals, and a decrease in the burning of
solid waste.5
3.1.2 Regional Trends
Figure 3-6 shows a comparison of the change in TSP levels by EPA
Regions in terms of the 1978 versus 1982 levels. All Regions showed
decreases over this time period. The Regions which showed the largest
decreases, (III, V, VII, IX, X) either had large reductions in emissions
or were affected by favorable meteorology in 1982 or were influenced by
a combination of both.
CPU REGION
HO. OF SITES
1
69
II
205
III
157
IV
311
V
518
VI
173
VII
11B
VIII
81
IX
71
X
59
FIGURE 3-6. REG10NRL COMPRR1SON OF THE 1978 RND 1982 COMPCSITE
flVERHGE OF THE GEOMETRIC HERN TOTRL SUSPENDED PflRTICULRTE.
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32
3.2 TRENDS IN SULFUR DIOXIDE
Ambient sulfur dioxide (S02) results primarily from stationary
source coal and oil combustion and from nonferrous smelters. There are
three NAAQS for S02: an annual arthmetic mean of 0.03 ppm, a 24-hour
level of 0.14 ppm and a 3-hour level of 0.50 ppm. The first two standards
are primary (health-related) standards, while the 3-hour NAAQS is a
secondary (welfare-related) standard. The annual standard is not to be
exceeded, while the short-term standards are not to be exceeded more
than once per year. The trend analyses which follow are presented for
the primary NAAQS.
S02 is measured using either a continuous monitoring instrument,
which can collect as many as 8760 hourly values a year, or a 24-hour
bubbler, which collects one measurement per 24-hour period and is
operated on a sampling schedule of once every 6 days. Prior to 1978,
most S02 monitors were 24-hour bubblers. In 1978, the EPA required
that all S02 bubblers be modified with a temperature control device to
rectify a sampling problem, when the temperature rose too high, not all
of the S02 present was collected. Therefore, the S02 sample collected
tended to be underestimated.12 After 1978, many S02 bubblers were retired.
Therefore, the bubbler data were not used in the trend analysis, because
the instrument modification would complicate the interpretation of the
trends analysis. Further, given the bubbler sampling frequency of once
every 6 days, the S02 peak statistics would be underestimated and not
comparable to those obtained from the continuous instruments.
The trends in ambient concentrations are derived from continuous
monitoring instruments which can measure as many as 8760 hourly values
per year. The S02 measurements reported in this section are summarized
into a variety of summary statistics which relate to the S02 NAAQS.
The statistics on which ambient trends will be reported are the annual
arithmetic mean concentration, the second highest annual 24-hour average
(measured midnight to midnight), and the expected annual number of
24-hour exceedances of 0.14 ppm (24-hour NAAQS).
3.2.1 Long-term Trends, 1975-82
The long-term trend in ambient S02, 1975-1982, is graphically
presented in Figures 3-7 to 3-9. In each figure, the trend at the
NAMS is contrasted with the trend at all sites. For each of the statistics
presented, a steady downward trend is evident. Nationally, the annual
mean S02, examined at 351 sites, decreased at a median rate of approximately
5 percent per year; this resulted in an overall change of about 33
percent (Figure 3-7). The subset of 88 NAMS recorded higher average
concentrations but declined at a higher rate of 8 percent per year.
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33
0.03
1
I
0.02
0.01
AW/705
0.019
NffMS SITES (88!
RLL SITES (351)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
YEFIR
1980
1981
1982
FIGURE 3-7. NRTIONflL TREND IN THE RNNURL RVERRGE SULFUR DIOXIDE
CONCENTRflTION RT BOTH NRMS flND flLL SITES
WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTEPVRLS. 1975 - 1982.
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34
0.14
0.12
ct 0. 10
&
\
0. 08
s
0.06
0.04
0.02
*' 08ef^
0.077
0.
0.048
-NRMS SITES (85)
ffLL SI755 (344)
\
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
YEfiR
1980
1981
1982
FIGURE 3-8. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE RVERflGE OF THE
SECOND-HIGHEST 24-HOUR SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRflT ION
RT BOTH NflMS flND RLL SITES WITH 95'X CONFIDENCE INTERVflLS, 1975 - 1982,
-------
35
1
I
I
fe
F>
I
2.0 -
1.0 -
NRMS SITES 185)
fiLL SITES f344J
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
YERR
1980
1981
1982
FIGURE 3-9. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERRGE OF THE ESTIMflTED
NUMBER OF EXCEEDflNCES OF THE 24-HOUR SULFUR DIOXIDE NRRQS
RT BOTH NRMS FIND RLL SITES WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVRLS, 1975 - 1982.
-------
36
The annual second highest 24-hour values displayed a similar decline
between 1975 and 1982. Nationally, among 344 stations with adequate
trend data, the average rate of change was 5 percent per year with an
overall decline of 39 percent (Figure 3-8). The 85 NAMS exhibited a
similar rate of improvement for an overall change of 36 percent. While
the NAMS are higher than other population oriented sites, the national
composite includes not only population-oriented sites, but high concentration
sites at smelter locations, as well. The estimated number of exceedances
also showed declines for the NAMS as well as the composite of all sites
(Figure 3-9). The vast majority of S02 sites do not show any exceedances
of the 24-hour NAAQS. Most of the exceedances as well as the bulk of
the improvements occurred at source oriented sites including a few
smelter sites in particular. The apparent increase in exceedances for
the NAMS during the beginning of the trend period is largely due to a
NAMS site in Salt Lake City, Utah. There is considerable variability
in the number of exceedances at this site with the number of exceedances
in 1976 being considerably greater than other years. This single site
has caused the trend at the NAMS sites to peak in 1976.
The statistical significance of these long-term trends is graphically
illustrated on Figures 3-7 to 3-9 with the 95 percent confidence
intervals included on these figures. For both annual averages and peak
24-hour values, the S02 levels in 1982 are statistically different than
levels observed during the 1970's. For expected exceedances of the 24-
hour standard with its higher variability and more rapid decline, current
levels are statistically different than average exceedances in earlier
years (1975-1978 for the NAMS and 1975-1977 for the national composite).
The intra-year variability for annual mean and second highest 24-
hour S02 concentrations is graphically displayed in Figures 3-10 and 3-11.
These figures show that higher concentrations decreased more rapidly and
the concentration range among sites has diminished.
Sulfur oxide emissions are dominated by electric utilities and the
trend generally tracks the pattern of ambient data. (See Table 3-2 and
Figure 3-12). Emissions increased from 1975 to 1976 due to improved
economic conditions, but decreased since then reflecting the installation
of flue gas desul furization controls at coal-fired electric generating
stations and a reduction in the average sulfur content of fuels consumed.
Emissions from other stationary source fuel combustion sectors also
declined, mainly due to decreased combustion of coal by these consumers.
Sulfur oxide emissions from industrial processes are also significant.
Emissions from industrial processes have declined, primarily as the
result of controls implemented to reduce emissions from nonferrous
smelters and sulfuric acid manufacturing plants.^
Nationally, sulfur oxide emissions decreased 17 percent from 1975
to 1982. The difference between emission trends and air quality trends
arises because the use of high sulfur fuels was shifted from power
plants in urban areas, where most of our monitors are, to power plants
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37
0.035
0.030
0.025
a
a
0.020
o
o
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.035
0.030
0.025
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.000
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
D.OOO
FIGURE 3- 10, BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN ANNUAL MEAN
SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AT 344 SITES. 1975 - 1982.
-------
38
0.25
0.20
Q.
O.
20.15
o
z
o
X
»o.io
0.05
0.00
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
0.00
FIGURE 3-11 BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN SECOND HIGHEST 24-HOUR
AVERAGE SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS AT 344 SITES. 1975 -1982.
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39
Table 3-2. National Sulfur Oxide Emission Estimates, 1975-1982
(106 metric tons/year)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981
Source Category
Transportation 0.6
Fuel combustion 20.3
Industrial Processes 4.8
Total 25.7
0.8 0.8
20.9 21.1
1982
0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
19.6 19.4 18.8 17.8 17.4
4.6 4.4 4.2 4.3 3.6 3.8 3.1
26.3 26.3 24.6 24.6 23.3 22.5 21.4
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198* 1981 1982
TMuaro*T*rio*
run coKttariOM
noccnes
B
FIGURE 3-12. NRTIONflL TREND IN SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS. 1975-1982.
-------
40
in rural areas which have fewer monitors. Further, the residential and
commercial areas, where the monitors are located, have shown sulfur
oxide emission decreases comparable to S02 air quality improvement.
These decreases in sulfur oxide emissions are due to a combination of
energy conservation measures and the use of cleaner fuels in the resi-
dential and commercial areas.
3.2.2 Regional Trends
The annual mean $03 levels decreased in nine EPA Regions
from 1975-1981 (Figure 3-13). Only Region VI had a majority of sites
increasing over this time period. These sites were primarily monitors
located in areas with low S02 concentrations. For the second high
24-hour values, the long-term change showed similar patterns.
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41
I
S
Q
S
Q
5!
to
0. 030 r-
0.025
0. 020
0. 010
0.005
0.000
1975-78 COMPOSITE RVERRGE
1979-82 COMPOSITE RVERRGE
I
EPR REGION I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
NO. OF SITES 22 53 28 87 81 16 11 6 33 14
FIGURE 3-13. REGIONflL COMPflRISON OF THE 1975-78 flND 1979-82 COMPOSITE
flVERflGE OF THE RNNUflL RVERRGE SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRRTIONS.
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42
3.3 TRENDS IN CARBON MONOXIDE
Highway motor vehicles are the largest contributing source of
carbon monoxide (CO) emissions. There are both 1-hour and 8-hour
NAAQS for CO. The 1-hour standard specifies a level of 35 ppm not to
be exceeded more than once per year while the 8-hour standard specifies
a level of 9 ppm not to be exceeded more than once per year. Because
the 8-hour standard is generally more restrictive, this section focuses
primarily on the 8-hour data.
The trends site selection process, discussed in Section 2.1,
resulted in a data base of 196 sites for CO, including 41 sites that
have been designated as National Air Monitoring Sites (NAMS). While
slightly more than 20 percent of the trend sites reflect merged data,
there was no significant difference in the overall trends between the
merged and unmerged sites.
3.3.1 LONG-TERM CARBON MONOXIDE TRENDS: 1975-82
The 1975-82 composite average trend for the second highest non-
overlapping 8-hour CO value is shown in Figure 3-14 for the 196 trend
sites and the subset of 41 NAMS. The national composite decreased by 31
percent between 1975 and 1982 for all sites and for the subset of NAMS.
The median rate of improvement was approximately 5 percent per year
and, during the 1975-82 time period, 88 percent of these sites showed
long-term improvement. The confidence intervals displayed in Figure
3-14 further substantiate this long-term decrease in ambient CO levels
with the more recent levels being significantly less than those in
earlier years. Figure 3-15 presents this same trend but the box-plot
presentation highlights the consistent improvement at sites with higher
concentration levels as seen in the steady year to year decreases in
the upper percentiles of these sites. Therefore, not only have CO
levels improved on the average but the number of sites with high CO
levels has been reduced.
Figure 3-16 illustrates the composite average trend for the estimated
number of exceedances of the 8-hour CO NAAQS which was adjusted to
account for incomplete sampling. This statistic is also consistent
with the longterm improvement, although the decrease is more pronounced,
with an 87 percent reduction for the average of all 196 sites and a
comparable 84 percent decrease for the NAMS.
Between 1975 and 1982 national carbon monoxide emissions are esti-
mated to have decreased by 11 percent. (See Table 3-3 and Figure 3-17).
These emission trend estimates show a slight rise between 1975 and
1976 followed by consistent decreases each year through 1982. Highway
vehicle emissions, which represent the dominant contribution to ambient
-------
43
I
I
8
a
16. 0
14.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
13.28
s/rfs
5/rf5
_L
_L
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
YEPK
1980
1981
1982
FIGURE 3-14. NflTIONRL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE RVERflGE OF THE
SECOND HIGHEST NONOVERLflPPING 8-HOUR RVERHGE CRRBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRflTION
flT BOTH NRMS RND RLL SITES WITH 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVRLS, 1975 -1982.
-------
44
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
FIGURE 3_15. BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN SECOND HIGHEST
NONOVERLAPPING 8-HOUR AVERAGE CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS
AT 196 SITES. 1975 -1982.
-------
45
-------
46
levels, decreased 17 percent between 1975 and 1982. In attempting to
compare ambient trends and emission trends for CO, it is important to
recognize that the trend in estimated CO emissions for highway vehicles
involves two main components: emissions per vehicle miles of travel and
the number of vehicle miles of travel. The Federal Motor Vehicle
Control Program has been successful since the early 1970's in reducing
CO emissions per vehicle miles of travel, but the net effect on national
CO emissions was dampened by an increase of 16 percent in vehicle miles
of travel between 1975 and 1978. However, from 1978 to 1982 it is
estimated that the vehicle miles of travel were more stable so that the
impact of the emissions controls is more apparent as evidenced by the
16 percent decrease in highway vehicle emissions between 1978 and 1982.
The extent to which ambient trends agree with the nationwide emission
trends depends upon whether the local traffic patterns around these
trend sites are consistent with the trends in national averages for
vehicle miles of travel. Because CO monitors are typically located to
identify potential problems, they are likely to be placed in traffic
saturated areas that do not experience significant increases in vehicle
miles of travel. Therefore the rate of CO air quality improvement
would be faster than the CO emission trend, because the CO air quality
trend is less likely to be influenced by increases in traffic.
3.3.2 REGIONAL CARBON MONOXIDE TRENDS
Figure 3-18 displays the 1975-78 and 1979-82 composite averages of
the second highest non-overlapping 8-hour CO concentrations by EPA
Region. This illustrates that the long-term improvements observed
nationally occurred in all Regions. In each Region, the majority of
sites showed long-term improvement during the 1975-82 time period.
It should be noted that these Regional graphs are primarily intended to
depict relative change in CO levels during this time period and not the
typical levels in each Region. Because the mix of sites may vary from
one area to another, with one set of sites dominated by center-city
monitors in large urban areas while another set of sites may represent
a more diversified mix, this graph is not intended to be indicative of
Regional differences in absolute concentration levels.
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47
Table 3-3. National Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimates, 1975-1982.
(106 metric tons/year)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
Source Category
Transportation 63.9
Industrial Processes 6.9
11.6
Solid Waste, Fuel
Combustion &
Miscellaneous
Total
66.2 63.0 62.1 58.0 55.3 54.6 53.3
7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 6.3 5.9 4.8
13.9 12.8 13.1 14.4 16.0 14.8 15.5
82.4 87.2 83.0 82.3 79.5 77.6 75.3 73.6
k
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1981 1981 1982
rimctssts
[HI SOLIO mart. rufL censusrION ma HISCCLLKHCOUS
ttBt
FIGURE 3-17. NflTlONflL TREND IN EMISSIONS OF CfiRBON MONOXIDE. 1975-1982.
-------
48
I
§
£
I
s
1
18.
16.
11.
12.
10.
8.
6.
2.
0.
1975-78 COMfOS I re RVEKRCE
1979-82 COMPOSITE RVERRGE
i
i
i
EPP REGION I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
NO. OF SITES 10 35 10 11 30 9 14 9 54 14
FIGURE 3-18. REGIONflL COMPflRISON OF THE 1975-78 flND 1979-82 COMPOSITE
flVERflGE OF THE SECOND-HIGHEST NON-OVERLflPPING 8-HOUR
CflRBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRflTION.
-------
49
3.4 TRENDS IN NITROGEN DIOXIDE
Nitrogen dioxide (NO^), a yellowish, brown gas, is present in urban
atmospheres through emissions from two major sources: transportation and
stationary fuel combustion. NOg is measured using either a continuous
monitoring instrument, which can collect as many as 8760 hourly values a
year, or a 24-hour bubbler, which collects one measurement per 24-hour
period. Both monitors are used to compare annual average concentrations
with the annual N02 standard of 0.053 parts per million.
The trend site selection process, discussed in Section 2.1, resulted
in a data base of 276 sites, including 14 sites that have been designated
as NAMS. The merging was accomplished by treating the bubbler and continuous
hourly data separately. If a monitor at a given site was changed from a
24-hour bubbler to a continuous hourly monitor or vice versa, the data
would not be merged. If, on the other hand, a monitor at a given site
changed from one type of bubbler to another type of bubbler or one type of
continuous instrument to another type of continuous instrument the data
would be merged. Of the 276 merged sites, 181 used 24-hour bubblers and
95 used continuous monitoring instruments.
3.4.1 Long-term N02 Trends: 1975-82
Nationally, annual average N02 levels, measured at 276 sites, increased
from 1975 to 1978, leveled off between 1978 and 1979, and then decreased
from 1979 to 1982 (Figure 3-19). The 1982 composite average N02 level is
equivalent to the 1975 level, so that there is no long-term net change between
1975 and 1982. While the trend pattern in the estimated nationwide emissions
of nitrogen oxides is similar to the N02 air quality trend, nitrogen
oxides emissions increased 5 percent between 1975 and 1982. (See Table 3-4
and Figure 3-20). The 95 percent confidence intervals about the composite
means of the 276 sites, allow for comparisons among the years. While there
are no significant differences among the years for the NAMS, because there
are so few monitors satisfying the historical trends criteria, there are
significant differences among the composite means of the 276 trend sites
(Figure 3-19). Although the 1981 and 1982 composite mean N0£ levels for
the 276 sites are not significantly different from one another, they are
significantly less than the earlier years 1978, 1979 and 1980. Figure 3-19
illustrates that there has been a statistically significant decrease in N0£
levels between 1979 and 1982. Figure 3-21 presents this same trend with
the use of box-plots. The improvement between 1979 and 1982 can also be
seen in the higher concentration levels as reflected in the upper percentiles.
The lower percentiles, however, show little or no change. Between 1979 and
1982, both NOg and nitrogen oxide emissions showed reductions of 7 and 5
percent, respectively.
3.4.2 Regional Trends
Figure 3-22 shows the regional trends in the annual average N02
concentrations at the 276 trend sites. The bar graphs represent the two
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50
c
I
s
is
I
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
HMOS
0.034
0.031
0. 026
NRMS SITES (14)
fiLL SITES (276)
_L
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979
YEPR
1980'
1981
1982
FIGURE 3-19. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERflGE OF
NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRflTI ON flT BOTH NflMS flND flLL SITES
WITH 952 CONFIDENCE INTERVflLS, 1975 - 1982.
-------
51
Table 3-4. National Nitrogen Oxide Emission Estimates, 1975-1982.
(106 metric tons/year)
Source Category
Transportation
Fuel Combustion
Industrial Process,
Solid Waste and
Mi scellaneous
Total
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
9.0
9.3
0.9
9.4
10.0
1.0
9.6
10.4
1.0
9.9
10.3
1.0
9.8
10.5
1.0
9.6
10.1
1.0
9.7
10.2
1.0
9.7
9.6
0.9
19.2 20.4 21.0 21.2 21.3 20.7 20.9 20.2
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1981 19S1 1982
TRmSFORTRTION
fUfL CO/MUST JON
BBjj INDUSTRIAL f/lOCfSSfS. SOLID MffSTf />HD H1SCC.LLRNEOUS
BBBi
FIGURE 3-20. NRTIONRL TREND IN EMISSIONS OF NITROGEN OXIDES, 1975-1982.
-------
52
0.06
0.05
50.04
UJ
u
UJ
o
X
o
UJ
IS
g 0.02
0.01
0.00
0.06
-NAAQS
f I
1
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
0.00
FIGURE 3-21. BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN ANNUAL MEAN
NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS AT 276 SITES. 1975 - 1982.
-------
53
0.04
I
t
I
s
i
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
1975-78 COMPOSITE RVEKRCE
1979-82 COMPOSITE:
EPR REGION I II III IV V VI VII VIII
NO. OF SITES 9 6 Iff 72 82 30 6 9
JX
X
1
FIGURE 3-22. REGIONflL COMPRRISON OF THE 1975-78 flND 1979-82 COMPOSITE
FWERflGE OF NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS.
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54
time periods: 1975-78 and 1979-82. For all regions the average N02
concentrations for both time periods are reasonably close and there is not
a predominant pattern of one interval or the other being higher or lower.
Six regions show increases in the 1979-82 period while four show decreases.
It should be noted that the single site in Region X meeting the trends
criteria does not represent the Region but just the air quality at that
site.
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55
3.5 TRENDS IN OZONE
The NAAQS for ozone (03) Is defined in terms of the daily maximum,
that is, the highest hourly value for the day, and specifies that the
expected number of days per year with values greater than 0.12 ppm
should not be greater than one. 03 is strongly seasonal with higher
ambient concentrations usually occurring during the warmer times of the
year. Because of this pronounced seasonality, some areas do not monitor
the entire year for 03 but concentrate only on a certain portion of the
year which may be termed the 03 season. The length of this 03 season
varies from one area of the country to another, but May through October is
fairly typical with the more southern states and those in the southwest
monitoring the entire year while the more northern states would have a
shorter season, such as May through September for North Dakota. This
trends analysis uses these 03 seasons on a state by state basis to
ensure that the data completeness requirements are applied to the
relevant portions of the year.
The trends site selection process discussed in Section 2.1, resulted
in a data base of 193 sites for 03 including 64 sites that have been
designated as National Air Monitoring Sites (NAMS). While approximately
25 percent of the sites involved merged data, there was no significant
difference in the trends between the sites with merged data and those
that did not have merged data.
3.5.1 LONG-TERM OZONE TRENDS: 1975-82
The composite average trend for the second high day during the
03 season is shown in Figure 3-23 for the 193 trend sites and the
subset of 64 NAMS. Although the graph indicates an overall decrease of
18 percent between 1975 and 1982, the pattern shows fairly consistent
levels from 1975 through 1978 followed by a drop between 1978 and 1979.
As noted previously, this decrease between 1978 and 1979 may be partly
attributable to the change in calibration procedure recommended by EPA
in June 1978.^ Because it is difficult to quantify the exact percentage
of the 1978-79 decrease that is attributable to the calibration change,
some caution is warranted in interpreting the results across this 1978-79
drop. However, the results do indicate that while there was little
change during the 1975-78 period there has been recent improvement with
the 1981-82 levels being less than 1979-80 as shown by the confidence
intervals for the national samples. The box-plot presentation of this
trend 1s presented in Figure 3-24 and also shows that 1981-82 levels
were generally lower than those 1n 1979-80.
The composite trend in the estimated number of exceedances of the
03 standard level of 0.12 ppm is shown in Figure 3-25. This graph
1s also affected by the calibration change between 1978 and 1979, but
it does illustrate that for the national sample the 1982 average is
significantly less than those in 1979 and 1980. Overall, the estimated
number of exceedances during the ozone season decreased 49 percent
between 1975 and 1982.
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56
\
C3
to
0. 18
0. 16
0.14
0. 12
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0. 165
0. 151
NRfiQS
NRMS SITES 164)
RLL SITES (193J
I
I
1975
1976 1977
1978 1979
YERK
1980 1981
1982
FIGURE 3-23. NflTIONHL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERflGE OF THE
SECOND HIGHEST DHlLY MHXIMUM 1-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRRTI ON
HT BOTH NflMS flND flLL SITES WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVflLS, 1975 - 1982,
-------
57
0.25
0.20
ex
50.15
z
o
z
o
o
£ 0.10
o
o
0.05
0.00
1
1
NAAQS ««
1
I 1
" T"'
1
I
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
0.00
FIGURE 3-24. BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN ANNUAL SECOND HIGHEST
DAILY MAXIMUM 1-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRATIONS AT 193 SITES, 1975 - 1982.
-------
58
25.0
20.0
i
5*
S> 15.0
£
£ 10.0
1
5.0
16.1
13. 69 ij^
6.9
I
NRMS SITES (64)
f)LL SITES (193)
\
I
\
\
1975 197B 1977 1978 1979 I960 1981 1982
YERR
FIGURE 3-25. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERflGE OF THE ESTIMflTED
NUMBER OF DfllLY EXCEEDflNCES OF THE OZONE NflflQS IN THE OZONE SEflSON
flT BOTH NflMS flND flLL SITES WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVRLS, 1975 - 1982.
-------
59
Table 3-5 and Figure 3-26 display the emission trends for Volatile
Organic Compounds (VOC) which, along with nitrogen oxides, are involved
in the atmospheric chemical and physical processes that result in the
formation of 03. Total VOC emissions decreased 13 percent between 1975
and 1982, but it is worth noting that emissions increased from 1975 to
1978 and then consistently decreased through 1982. While emission
trends and air quality trends show general agreement reflecting improvement
over the past few years, meteorology has a major influence on 03
levels which complicates year to year comparisons. For example, although
VOC emissions decreased between 1979 and 1980, the second maximum 03
levels increased slightly which corresponds to meteorology in 1980 that
was more conducive to 03 formation in certain parts of the country.
3.5.2 REGIONAL OZONE TRENDS
Figure 3-27 contrasts the composite average of the second highest
daily 1-hour 03 concentrations for the 1979-80 and 1981-82 03
seasons by EPA Region. Only data from the last 4 years, 1979-82, are
presented to eliminate the effect of the calibration change. Most
Regions showed improvement between 1979-80 and 1981-82. The only
exception was Region X and this increase was primarily due to higher
03 levels in 1981 than in 1980 but this is likely attributable
to the meteorology in 1980 being less condusive to 03 formation
in that Region than in 1981.
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60
Table 3-5. National Volatile Organic Compound Oxide Emission
Estimates, 1975-1982.
Source Category
Transportation
Industrial Process
Solid Waste and
Miscellaneous
Industrial Organic
Solvent
Total
metric tons/year)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
8.6 8.7 8.3 8.0 7.3 6.7 6.4 6.1
8.1 8.7 9.0 9.6 9.5 8.9 8.0 7.1
2.4 2.8 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5
1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5
21.0 22.1 21.9 22.4 21.9 20.8 19.4 18.2
375 IS7S 1977 197B 1979 1980 19S1 1982
1NDUSTK1HL fKOCCSSfS
SOLID HfiSTE PND MISCELLANEOUS
NONINDU57R1RL ORGRN1C SOLVENT
FIGURE 3-26. NflTIONflL TREND IN EMISSIONS OF
VOLRTILE ORGflNIC COMPOUNDS, 1975-1982.
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61
0.20
5: 0.i6
\
> 0. 12
1
0.08
0.00
I
1979-80 COMPOSITE RVERRGE
1981-82 COMPOSITE RVERRGE
1
EPP REGION I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
NO. OF SITES 7 20 28 16 42 17 9 9 40 5
FIGURE 3-27. REGIONflL COMPflRISON OF THE 1979-80 flND 1981-82 COMPOSITE
flVERflGE OF THE SECOND-HIGHEST DRILY l-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRflTION.
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62
3.6 TRENDS IN LEAD
Lead (Pb) gasoline additives, non-ferrous smelters, and battery plants
are the most significant contributors to atmospheric lead emissions.
Transportation sources alone contribute about 80 percent of the annual
emissions.
Prior to promulgation of the lead standard in October 1978,14 two air
pollution control programs were implemented by EPA that have resulted in
lower ambient lead levels. First, regulations, were issued in the early
1970's which required the lead content of all gasoline to be gradually
reduced over a period of many years. Second, as part of EPA's overall
automotive emission control program, unleaded gasoline was introduced in
1975 for use in automobiles equipped with catalytic control devices which
reduced emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides.
The overall effect of these two control programs has been a major reduction
in both the amount of lead in gasoline and in ambient levels.
3.6.1 Long-term Lead Trends, 1975-82
Previous trend analyses of ambient Pb data15*16 were based almost
exclusively on National Air Surveillance Network (NASN) sites. These
sites were established in the 1960's to monitor ambient air quality levels
of TSP and associated trace metals, including lead. The sites were
predominantly located in the central business districts of larger American
cities. In October 1980, new ambient Pb monitoring regulations were
promulgated.I? The siting criteria in the regulations resulted in the
elimination of many of the old historic TSP monitoring sites as being suitable
sites for the measurement of ambient Pb concentrations.
As with the other pollutants the trend sites that were selected had
to satisfy an annual data completeness criterion of at least 6 out of 8
years in the 1975 to 1982 time period. A year was included as "valid" if
at least 3 of the 4 quarterly averages were available. A total of only
46 urban-oriented sites, representing just six states, met the data
completeness criteria.
The composite maximum quarterly averages and their respective 95
percent confidence intervals are shown in Figure 3-28 for both 46 urban
sites (1975-1982) and 214 sites (1979-1982). There was a 64 percent
overall (1975-82) percentage decrease. The confidence intervals indicate
that the 1975-78 averages are significantly different from the 1980-82
averages. The box plots are shown in Figure 3-29 for the 46 sites. The
upper percentile points (75 and 90th) exhibit a somewhat different pattern
than the mean or median; however, the overall decrease is still evident.
On the other hand the lower percentile points (10 and 25th) do not show a
definite pattern and, primarily, reflect sites located in Texas.
-------
63
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46 SITES C1975
214 SITES (1979
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1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
YEfiR
FIGURE 3-28. NflTIONflL TREND IN MflXIMUM QUflRTERLY RVERflGE
LEflD LEVELS WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVflLS
flT 46 SITES (1975 - 1982) flND 211 SITES U979 - 1982).
-------
64
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0.0
FIGURE 3-29. BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN MAXIMUM QUARTERLY
LEAD LEVELS AT 46 SITES, 1975 - 1982.
-------
65
The 1975-82 trend in lead consumed in gasoline, based on information
from the Ethyl Corporation18 and the Department of Energy,19 is shown in
Figure 3-30. The overall percentage decrease for lead consumption was 69
percent. This compares with a 64 percent decrease in ambient lead noted
above. The drop in lead consumption since 1975 was brought about because
of the increased use of unleaded gasoline in catalyst equipped cars. In
1982 unleaded gasoline sales represented 51 percent of the total gasoline
sales. Although the good agreement between the trend in lead consumption
and ambient levels may be more fortuitous than real due to the imbalanced
national sample of trend sites, it does show that ambient urban Pb levels
are responding-te the drop in lead emissions.
Ambient Pb trends were also studied over the shorter term period
1979-82 (Figure 3-31). A total of 214 urban sites from 21 states
met the minimum data requirement of at least 3 out of the 4 years of
data. This larger and more representative set of sites showed an
improvement of 43 percent over this time period. This compares with a 54
percent decrease for the 46 sites over the same 1979-82 time period
and a 61 percent decrease in lead consumed in gasoline. Even this larger
group of sites was disproportionately weighted by sites in Arizona,
California, Illinois, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Texas. These six
states accounted for almost 79 percent of the 214 sites represented.
Ambient lead levels have decreased in each of these six states. Also
shown is the Pb trend at the 10 NAMS represented in the sample of 214
trend sites. The Pb trend at the NAMS sites is similar to the trend for
the entire sample although the average maximum Pb levels are higher,
because NAMS sites are located in areas of maximum Pb emissions. Interest-
ingly, the decrease in ambient lead levels is so pronounced, that the 10
NAMS, while few in number, show statistically significant decreases with
the 1981 and 1982 composite averages significantly less than the 1979 and
1980 composite averages.
-------
66
I
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171.
150.
S
100.
50.
\
\
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1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1950. 1981. 1982.
YEPR
FIGURE 3-30. LERD CONSUMED IN GRSOLINE,
- 1382.
(SRLES TO THE MILITRRY EXCLUDED)
-------
67
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NfiROS
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0.68
$ 0.
NffMS SITES (12)
ffLL SITES (214)
\
1979
1980
1931
1982
YERR
FIGURE 3-31. NflTIONflL TREND IN MflXIMUM QUflRTERLY RVERflGE
LEflD LEVELS WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVRLS
F)T BOTH NRMS flND flLL SITES, 1979 - 1982.
-------
68
3.7 References
1. Tukey, J. W., Exploratory Data Analysis. Addison-Wesley Publishing
Company, Reading, Massachusetts, 1977
2. Winer, B. J. , Statistical Principles in Experimental Design. McGraw-
Hill, New York, 1971.
3. Johnson, N. L., and S. Kotz, Discrete Distributions. Wiley, New York,
1969.
4. Miller, R. G., Jr., Simultaneous Statistical Tnference. Springer-
Veriag, New York, 1981.
5. Pollack, A. K. , W. F. Hunt, Jr., and T. C. Curran, "Analysis of
Variance Applied to National Ozone Air Quality Trends," to be presented at
the 27th Annual Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association, San
Francisco, California, 1984.
6. Witz, S. , M. M. Smith, and A. B. Moore, Jr., "Comparative
Performance of Glass Fiber Hi-Vol Filters," JAPCA 33:988, 1983.
7. Kolaz, D. "Hi-Volume Sampler Filter Comparison Project,"
Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, 1983.
8. Frank, N. H. "Nationwide Trends in Total Suspended Particulate
Matter and Associated Changes in the Measurement Process," (in
preparation).
9. Johnson, T., J. Steigerwald, L. Wijnberg, J. Cape!, and R. Paul,
"Analysis of the Possible Causes of an Observed Decrease in Particulate
Levels from 1981 to 1982," PEDCo Environmental, Inc., 1983.
10. Mauser, R. T., U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Impact
of Filter Change on TSP Trends," memorandum to R. G. Rhoads, January 11, 1984.
11. National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940-1982. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, Research Triangle Park, N.C. Publication No. EPA-450/4-83-024,
February 1984.
12. Neligan, R. E., U. S. Environmental Protection Agency,
memorandum to Directors of the Surveillance and Analysis Divisions and
Air and Hazardous Materials Divisions, and the Regional Quality Control
Coordinators, EPA Regions I through X, July 25, 1978.
13. Federal Register, Vol. 43, June 22, 1978, pp 26971-26975.
14. Federal Register, Vol. 43, October 5, 1978, pp 46246-46247.
-------
69
15. Faoro, R. B. and T. B. McMullen, National Trends in Trace Metals
Ambient Air, 1965-1974. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards. Research Triangle Park, N.C.
Publication No. EPA-450/1-77-003. February 1977.
16. W. Hunt, "Experimental Design In Air Quality Management," Andrews
Memorial Technical Supplement, American Society for Quality Control, 1983.
17. Federal Register, Vol. 45, October 10, 1980, pp 67564-67575.
18. Yearly Report of Gasoline Sales by States, 1982, Ethyl Corporation,
2 Houston Center, Suite 900, Houston, Texas 77010.
19. Sheldon, Ella Mae, Motor Gasolines, Winter 1981, U. S. Department
of Energy, Bartlesville Energy Technology Center, Bartlesville, Oklahoma
Publication No. DOE/BETC/PPS-81/3.
-------
70
4. AIR QUALITY LEVELS IN STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS
The Tables in this section summarize air quality by Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) for SMSA's with populations greater
than 500,000. The air quality statistics relate to pollutant-specific NAAQS.
The purpose of these summaries is to provide the reader with information on
how air quality varies among SMSA's and from year-to-year. The higher air
quality levels measured in the SMSA are summarized for the years 1980, 1981
and 1982.
The reader should be cautioned that these summaries are not sufficient
in themselves to adequately rank or compare the SMSA's according to their
air quality. To properly rank the air pollution severity in different
SMSA(s), data on population characteristics, daily population mobil ity,
transportation patterns, industrial composition, emission inventories,
meteorological factors and, most important, the spatial representativeness
of the monitoring sites would also be needed.
The same annual data completeness criterion used in the air quality
trends data base was used here for the calculation of annual means. (See
Section 2.1). If some data has been collected at one or more sites, but
none of these sites meet the annual data completeness criteria, then the
reader will be advised that there is insufficient data to calculate the
annual mean.
With respect to the summary statistics for air quality levels with
averaging times less than or equal to 24-hours, measured with continuous
monitoring instruments, a footnote will be placed next to the level if the
volume of annual data is less than 4380 hours for CO, less than 183 days
for S02 or less than 50 percent of the days during the ozone season for
ozone, which varies by state. 1 For example, in California the ozone season
is defined as 12 months, January through December, while in New Jersey it is
defined as 7 months, April through October.
4.1 SUMMARY STATISTICS
In the following SMSA summaries, the air quality levels reported
are the highest 1 evel s measured within the SMSA(s). The pollutant-specific
statistics reported are summarized in Table 4-1, along with their associated
primary NAAQS concentrations. For example, if an SMSA has three ozone
monitors in 1981 with second highest daily hourly maxima of .15 ppm, .14 ppm
and .12 ppm, the highest of these, .15 ppm, would be reported for that SMSA
for 1981.
In the case of Pb, the quarterly average is either based on as many as
15 24-hour measurements or one or more chemical composite measurements.
Most of the maximum quarterly Pb averages are based on multiple 24-hour
measurements. If the maximum quarterly average is based on a chemical
composite, it is footnoted accordingly.
-------
71
Table 4-1. Air Quality Summary Statistics and Their
Associated National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
POLLUTANT STATISTICS PRIMARY NAAQS
CONCENTRATION
Total Suspended Particulate annual geometric mean 75 ug/m3
Sulfur Dioxide annual arithmetic mean 0.03 ppm
second highest 24-hour average 0.14 ppm
Carbon Monoxide second highest nonoverlapping 9 ppm
8-hour average
Nitrogen Dioxide annual arithmetic mean 0.053 ppm
Ozone second highest daily maximum 0.12 ppm
1-hour average
Lead maximum quarterly average 1.5 ug/m3
ug/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
ppm - parts per million
4.2 AIR QUALITY SMSA COMPARISONS
In each of the following SMSA air quality summaries, the SMSA's are
grouped according to population starting with the largest SMSA - New York,
NY-NJ and continuing to the smallest SMSA with a population in excess of
500,000, Long Branch - Asbury Park, NO. The population groupings and the
number of SMSA's contained within each are as follows: 16 SMSA's have
populations in excess of 2 million, 23 SMSA's have populations between 1
and 2 million and 41 SMSA's have populations between 0.5 and 1 million.
The population statistics are based on the 1980 census.
The air quality summary statistics are summarized in the following
tables:
Table 4-2. Highest Annual Geometric Mean Suspended Particulate
Concentration by SMSA, 1980-82.
Table 4-3. Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean Sulfur Dioxide Concentration
by SMSA, 1980-82.
Table 4-4. Highest Second Maximum 24-hour Average Sulfur Dioxide
Concentration by SMSA, 1980-82.
-------
72
Table 4-5. Highest Second Maximum Nonoverl apping 8-hour Average Carbon
Monoxide Concentration by SMSA, 1980-82.
Table 4-6. Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean Nitrogen Dioxide Concentration
by SMSA, 1980-82.
Table 4-7. Highest Second Daily Maximum 1-hour Average Ozone Concentration
by SMSA, 1980-82.
Table 4-8. Highest Maximum Quarterly Average Lead Concentration by SMSA,
1980-82.
The air quality summaries follow:
4.3 REFERENCES
1. Rhoads, Richard G., U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, memorandum
to Director of the Environmental Services Divisions and Air and Waste
Management Divisions, EPA Regions I through X, 15 December 1982.
-------
73
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1. REPORT NO.
EPA 450/4-84-002
2.
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
February 1984
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report,
1982
5. REPORT DATE
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
7 AUTHOR(S) w> p_
R. B. Faoro, N. H. Frank, C. Mann and R. E. Neligan
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air and Radiation
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
The confidence intervals and computer graphics were prepared
by Alison Pollack of Systems Applications, Inc., under EPA Contract No. 68-02-3570.
16. ABSTRACT
This report presents national and regional trends in air quality from 1975
through 1982 for total suspended particulate, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide,
nitrogen dioxide, ozone and lead. Both national and regional trends in each of
the major pollutants are examined and, where appropriate, specific Statewide
air quality trends. Air quality trends are also presented for both the National
Air Monitoring Sites (NAMS) and other site categories.
In addition to ambient air quality, trends are also presented for annual
nationwide emissions. These emissions are estimated using the best available
engineering calculations; the ambient levels presented are averages of direct
measurements.
This report also includes a section, Air Quality Levels in Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's). Its purpose is to provide interested
members of the air pollution control community, the private sector and the
general public with greatly simplified air pollution information. Air quality
statistics are presented for each of the pollutants for all SMSA's with popula-
tions exceeding 500,000 for the years 1980, 1981 and 1982.
17.
KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
DESCRIPTORS
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS C. COSATI Field/Group
Air Pollution Trends
Emission Trends
Carbon Monoxide
Nitrogen Dioxide
Ozone
Sulfur Dioxide
Total Suspended Particulates
Air Pollution
Standard Metropoli
Statistical ARea (
Air Quality Statis
National Air Monit
Stations (NAMS)
ban
SMSA)
tics
>ring
18 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release Unlimited
19 SECURITY CLASS (This Report/
21. NO. OF PAGES
Llncl,
ified
'' I I V. I G S S I I I ^ M
20 SECURITY CLASS /This page)
Unclassified
22 PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77)
PREVIOUS EDITION IS OBSOUETE
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