United States      Office of Air Quality
Environmental Protection  Planning and Standards
Agency        Research Triangle Park MC 27711
EPA-450/4-84-020
July 1984
Air
Receptor Model
Technical Series,
Volume V

Source
Apportionment
Techniques And
Considerations In
Combining Their Use

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                                      EPA-450/4-84-020
    RECEPTOR MODEL TECHNICAL
             SERIES, VOLUME V
Source Apportionment Techniques And
Considerations In Combining Their Use
                           By

                      Michael K. Anderson
                      Edward T. Brookman
                      Richard J. Londergan
                        John E. Yocom

                 TRC Environmental Consultants, Inc.
                     East Hartford, CT 06108

                      Dr. John G. Watson
                     Desert Research Institute
                       Reno, NV 89506

                        Dr. Paul J. Lioy
            New York University Institute Of Environmental Medicine
                      New York, NY 10016
                                       U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
                     Contract No. 68-02-3514    Region V, Library
                                       230 South Dearborn Street
                  Project Officer: Thompson G. Pace  Chicago, Illinois 60604
               U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
                     Office of Air and Radiation
                Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
                   Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

                         July 1984

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This report has been reviewed by the Office Of Air Quality Planning And Standards, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for publication as received from the contractor.
Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the
Agency, neither does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement
or recommendation for use.
                                EPA-450/4-84-020
      (J.S. Environmental Protection  Agency'

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                                    PREFACE




                        Receptor Model Technical Series




                                    Volume V




   Source Apportionment Techniques and Considerations in Combining Their Use
                                                          *





    In  order  to  meet the  requirements  of  the  1977  Clean Air  Act regarding




attainment  of  the  National  Ambient  Air Quality  Standards  for  particulate




matter, EPA has  been  preparing guidance for use in identifying and quantifying




source  contributions  to measured ambient  particulate matter  concentrations.




Many  analysis  techniques  and models  have  been  developed  for the  purpose of




source  apportionment.  Receptor  models are those  that  are  based  primarily on




data  gathered  at the  receptor where  the ambient concentrations  are measured.




Source  or  dispersion models  are  those  that  are based  primarily  on  data




gathered at the source.




    Guidance for using source  apportionment  techniques  has  been  compiled by




EPA  into  the  Receptor Model  Technical Series.  The first  four volumes in the




Technical Series  have primarily addressed receptor model source  apportionment




techniques.   Volume  I  (EPA-450/4-81-016a),   entitled "Overview  of  Receptor




Model Application to Particulate  Source  Apportionment,"  introduces the concept




of  receptor models  and briefly discusses the  various  types of receptor models



and   their  applications.   Volume  II   (EPA-450/4-81-016b),  pertains  to  the




"Chemical Mass  Balance" model  and provides information  on model theory, data




requirements and case studies  of the application  of the model  to  emission




control  strategy  development.   Volume  III   (EPA-45Q/4-83-014),   the  "User's




Manual  for  (a)  Chemical Mass Balance  Model,"  documents  a   computer  program




that  performs  source  apportionment using the  weighted  least  squares and other




optional  forms  of  the  mass balance  equations.   The user's  guide  provides  a




complete program listing,  an example  set of input and output data and further




discussions of model theory and use.




                                       iii

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    Volume  IV   of  the   series   (EPA-450/4-83-018),   "Summary   of  Particle




Identification Techniques" gives  an overview  of  the  methods  and  equipment




generally used  in particle characterization for  source apportionment studies.




The  discussion  includes  sampling and  analytical  methods,  choice  of  filter




media,  particle   properties   and  source  fingerprints,   costing  and  method




selection criteria.




    The present  volume,  (EPA-450 /4 -84-020),  "Source  Apportionment Techniques




and  Considerations  in  Combining  Their  Use,"  provides   guidance  for  the




coordinated use  of the various receptor  and source model  techniques in source




apportionment activities.   Summary discussions of  the available  receptor and




source  models  are presented.  The use  of the  models is discussed in a phased




approach  starting  with analyses  of low complexity  and  cost and  proceeding to




analyses  of  greater complexity  and cost, but  which produce more quantitative




results.  Input  data  requirements  for each phase  and example  case histories




are provided.
                                       iv

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This report was prepared by TRC Environmental Consultants,  Inc.  for the Office




of  Air  Quality Planning  and  Standards  in  fulfillment   of  Contract  Number




68-02-3514,  Work Assignments  21 and  34.   The  contents  of  this  report  are




reproduced  herein  as  received from the  contractor.   The  opinions,  findings,




and conclusions  expressed  are  those of the  authors  and not  necessarily those




of  the U.S.  Environmental Protection  Agency.  The  mention  of  product names




does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

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                                    ABSTRACT








                        Receptor Model Technical Series




                                    Volume V




             Source Apportionment Techniques and Considerations in




                              Combining Their Use








    The Clean Air  Act  of 1977 requires the  development  of State plans for the




attainment  of  the  National   Ambient  Air  Quality  Standards   (NAAQS)   for




particulate matter.  In  order  to assist in this effort,  EPA has been preparing




guidance  for use  in  identifying  and  quantifying  source  contributions  to




measured ambient particulate matter concentrations.   Much of this guidance has




been incorporated  into  the  Receptor Model Technical Series.   This  document is




the fifth  in  the  series.  Many air  sampling  techniques,  analytical procedures




and  models  have  been  developed  for  the  purpose  of  apportioning  source




contributions.  The  models that  have been  developed  for this  purpose are of




two  general  types:    receptor  models  that  are  based   primarily  on  ambient




measurements  and  related  analytical  techniques,  and   source  or  dispersion




models  that are  based  primarily on  source  emissions   data  and  atmospheric



dispersion calculations.



    The purposes of  this document  are to  1)  summarize   the  information which




will facilitate the  design of a source apportionment study using a combination




of receptor and source models, 2) identify approaches  in  which receptor models




can be  used to  increase the reliability  of  source (dispersion)  models, and 3)




identify  ways  and conditions  under which  the  aforementioned  receptor models




can  be  used in   concert  (without  a  dispersion model)  to  provide   reliable




estimates  of source  category  contributions  to  ambient  particulate  matter
                                      vi

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problems.  To  achieve these purposes,  this volume  1}  discusses models  which




identify  source  contributions  to receptor  concentrations,  their  input  data,




the assumptions on which they are based, and the effects  of  typical deviations




from those assumptions,  2)  identifies measurements which these models require,




their availability, the  additional  assumptions imposed by these  measurements,




and  the effect of  their precision  and accuracy on  modeling results, and 3)




presents  approaches,  pertaining to  three  levels of  analysis detail,  for the




optimum  combinations  of  models and  measurements  in practical  situations and




illustrates these protocols with case studies.
                                       vii

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                               EXECUTIVE SUMMARY








    This document is intended as a source of information on  the  use of various




combinations  of  source   apportionment   methods  to  determine  the  relative




contribution of pollution  sources  to measured levels of particulate matter in




the  ambient   atmosphere.    The   apportionment   of  source  contribution  is




especially  important  in  nonattainment  situations  so   that  cost-effective




strategies  can  be developed  for source  control  to achieve attainment.   This




document is intended  for  air quality specialists  in  all  levels  of government




and  in  industrial  and  consulting  establishments  to  provide  guidance  in




selecting and implementing combinations of source apportionment methods.




    Receptor-oriented  models based  on  unique  properties  of  source emissions




and  source-oriented  models based  on dispersion  equations  are  both imperfect




representations  of complex  physical  realities.   By  combining  receptor- and




source-oriented models the skilled analyst  can learn more about the nature of




the   nonattainment   situation   and   can   possibly   develop   quantitative




source-receptor  relationships  which will greatly increase  confidence  in the




choice of control strategies.




    Modeling involves a five step process.  The five  steps  are 1) development,



2)  verification,  3)   evaluation,  4)  application,  and 5)   validation.   This




volume is concerned primarily with the model application step of this process,




but  it  does  not  provide  step-by-step  procedures for  the  application  of




composite methods because  of the  wide range of  techniques  available  and the




attendant uncertainty  in  the reliability of the results.   Rather, it describes




the most important available source- and  receptor-oriented models and how they
                                      vni

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may be used  in combination  to  develop a  source apportionment  strategy.   The




reader  is  directed  to published  literature  for  the  detail on  each  of the




models described and its method of application.




    Both non-computer  and computer  source (dispersion) models  are described.




The computer models  identified  and  summarized include:  PTMAX, PTDIS,  PTPLU,




PTMTP, CRSTER,  MPTER,  RAM, CDM, ISC,  and  Valley.   The use  of  these models in




applications ranging from screening  to detailed analyses  is described.   The




ISC  model  has  the  greatest  application  to  a  composite  source apportionment




approach because of  its ability to handle particle deposition.




    The  receptor models  described include  some that  provide  qualitative and




some  that  provide  quantitative  source   apportionment   results.    The  most




important  of  the quantitative  receptor  models are  those  based  on mass  or




element  balance.   Also discussed  are other  types  of  quantitative  and  semi-




quantitative   receptor models   including   factor  analysis,  multiple  linear




regression,  optical  microscopy,   scanning   election  microsopy   and    x-ray




diffraction.




    Mass balance  techniques  require both  ambient  and  source composition data




to  produce  a   quantitative   source  apportionment  solution.   Factor analysis



models  require a qualitative knowledge of  the composition of source  emissions




in  order  to  identify which  factors  are  associated  with  each  source  type.



Multiple linear  regression analyses  require a separate determination  of tracer




elements   or  constituents  attributable   to   specific sources.    The  source




compositions gained  by factor analysis and multiple linear  regression  can be




used as  input  to  the mass  balance  model to quantify source  contributions.




     Optical  microscopy can  provide  semi-quantitative  source apportionment if




particles  associated  with  specific  source  types  are  large   enough to have
                                        IX

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characteristics  that  can  be identified  by  visual  inspection  (e.g.  specific

minerals).   Included  among  the  properties  used  to   identify  particles  are

color,  shape,   index  of  refraction  and  bi-refringence.   Automated  scanning

electron  microscopy  coupled  with energy  dispersive  x-ray analysis  provides

data  on  particle  shape,  elemental  content  and particle  sizing  to  smaller

physical  diameters  than  can  be  observed   by  optical   microscopy.    X-ray

diffraction  can  be  used  to   identify  and  distinguish  among  chemically-

identical, coarse, crystalline particles.

    The qualitative receptor modeling techniques discussed include:


       Background Concentration Analyses
       Historical Trends and Monthly Variation Analyses
       Weekday/Weekend and Wet Day/Dry Day Analyses
       Analyses of Frequency Distributions and Tests for Lognormality
       Episode Day Analyses and Spatial Mapping
       Correlation Coefficients and Time Series Analyses
       Wind Trajectories and Pollution Roses



    Five  factors must  be considered  in the  design  of a  source apportionment

study.  These  are  1)  the time frame of the problem, 2) the existing data base,

3}  the  nature  of the problem, 4)  the  applicability of  complementary  methods,

and  5)  resource  availability.    This  volume  discusses  the interrelationships

among these  factors  and provides an assessment  of various  complementary uses

of  receptor and dispersion models.

       Source  apportionment  studies  are  organized  here  into  a  three  level

format, with Level I being  the  simplest and  least costly  and Level III being

the  most  complex  and  expensive.   This  approach  was  recommended  by  the

participants at  the  second Mathematical and Empirical Receptor Models Workshop

(Quail Roost II) held in March 1982 in Rougemont, North Carolina.  The levels

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are considered to  be  a continuum in which  the  first step is based on existing



measurements.  Then, depending  upon the resources and data  available,  and the



objectives  of  the  study,  additional  measurements  are  made and  more  complex



models  are  applied  until  a  satisfactory  level of  confidence  in the  study



conclusions  is  achieved.   A   summary  of  the  three level  approach  is  also



provided.



    Several  case  studies  are  described  that  represent all  three  levels  of



complexity and combinations thereof.
                                       xi

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                                ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS




    The authors wish  to  express their appreciation to  several  people who made




valuable contributions to  the  preparation of  this document.   Those providing




technical and editorial  review  and comments include John E. Core, Manager, Air




Quality Group,  Nero and Associates,  Inc., Portland,  Oregon;  James  L.  Dicke,




Chief,  Techniques  Evaluation Section,  U.S. EPA,  Research Triangle  Park,  NC;




Warren P. Freas, Technology  Development Section,  U.S.  EPA, Research Triangle




Park, NC; Philip K.  Hopke, Professor of Environmental Chemistry, University of




Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana,  Illinois; and Robert K.  Stevens,  Chief,




Inorganic Pollutant Analysis  Branch,  U.S.  EPA,  Research Triangle  Park,  NC.




Extra  appreciation must  also  be  expressed  for  the   assistance  provided  by




Thompson G.  Pace who,  in addition to providing technical  and  editorial advice




on the entire document, was also the primary  author of the text and tables in




the  section  entitled "Considerations in Method Selection"  that introduces the




discussion  of  composite  source  and  receptor  model  application  protocols.




Appreciation is also  given to Joseph Cugnini  of TI?C  who assisted in preparing




the discussions of emissions inventories and meteorological data,  and to TRC's




word  processing  staff  for  their  dedicated  efforts  to produce  a  quality




document.
                                       Xll

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                               TABLE OF CONTENTS

SECTION                                                                    PAGE

                  PREFACE	      ii

                  ABSTRACT  	      v

                  EXECUTIVE SUMMARY	    vii

                  ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS	      xi
  1.0             INTRODUCTION
  2.0             SOURCE AND RECEPTOR MODELS   	       7
      2.1           The Five Step Modeling Process	       7
      2.2           Source Models 	       9
          2.2.1       Non-Computer Source Modeling Approaches  	       9
          2.2.2       Computer Based Models 	      10
      2.3           Receptor Models	      24
          2.3.1       Chemical Mass Balance Model    	      28
          2.3.2       Factor Analysis	      32
          2.3.3       Multiple Linear Regression  	      35
          2.3.4       Optical Microscopy  	      37
          2.3.5       Scanning Electron Microscopy   	      39
          2.3.6       X-Ray Diffraction 	      41
          2.3.7       Preliminary or Qualitative Receptor Models   ...      42

  3.0             AN EVALUATION OF EXISTING MODEL INPUT DATA	      53
      3.1           Overview	      53
      3.2-           Source Data	      53
          3.2.1       Emissions Inventories	      55
          3.2.2       Data Quality	      58
          3.2.3       Source Emission Compositions   	      53
      3.3           Meteorological Data	      60
          3.3.1       Data Quality	      60
          3.3.2       Data Sources	      61
          3.3.3       Meteorological Variables   .... 	      62
      3.4           Ambient Data	      66
          3.4.1       Data Quality	      67
          3.4.2       Data Sources	      70

  4.0             COMPOSITE SOURCE/RECEPTOR MODEL APPLICATION  PROTOCOLS      71
      4.1           Considerations in Method Selection	      71
          4.1.1       Time Frame of the Problem	      71
          4.1.2       Data Base	      72
          4.1.3       Nature of the Problem	      72
          4.1.4       Complementary Methods 	      76
          4.1.5       Resources	      82
      4.2           A Three Level Approach	      82
                                      Xlll

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                               TABLE OP CONTENTS
                                  (CONTINUED)
SECTION
PAGE
      4.3           Level I:  Gathering, Evaluating, and Using
                      Existing Data with Simple Models	     84
          4.3.1       Source Data	     84
          4.3.2       Meteorological Data	     85
          4.3.3       Ambient Data	     86
          4.3.4       Procedures	     86
          4.3.5       Resources .	     99
      4.4           Level II:  Acquire More Data without Extensive
                      Sampling and Use More of the Capabilities in
                      Refined Models	     99
          4.4.1       Source Data	     99
          4.4.2       Meteorological Data	     101
          4.4.3       Ambient Data	     102
          4.4.4       Procedures	     104
          4.4.5       Resources	     122
      4.5           Level III:  New Sampling, Analysis, and Model
                      Development	     122
          4.5.1       Source Data	     123
          4.5.2       Meteorological Data	  .     126
          4.5.3       Ambient Data	     128
          4.5.4       Procedures	  .     133
          4.5.5       Resources	     137
      4.6           Summary of the Three Level Approach	     137

  5.0             CASE STUDIES OF COMPOSITE SOURCE APPORTIONMENT METHODS    140
      5.1           Use of Microscopy and Filter Analysis  (Level I)  .  .     140
      5.2           Linn County, Iowa Non-Traditional Fugitive Dust  Study
                      (Level I)	     141
      5.3           Allegheny County Particulate Study (Levels I and II)    143
      5.4           Portland Aerosol Characterization Study  (Level III).    145

  6.0             SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS	     148
      6.1           Summary	     148
      6.2.          Conclusions	     149

  7.0             REFERENCES	     151
 APPENDICES

   A   RESULTS  OF  SELECTED  MODEL VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION STUDIES
         PERTAINING TO THE  6  ASSUMPTIONS  EMPLOYED BY THE MASS
         BALANCE MODEL

   B   SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES
                                       xiv

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                                 LIST OF TABLES

TABLE                                                                      PAGE

  2-1             Source Models 	 .....     11

  2-2             Receptor Models	     25

  3-1             General Data Requirements of Source and Receptor
                     Models	     54

  4-1             Preferred Approaches for Source Apportionment ....     73

  4-2             Appropriate Filter Media for Use With Receptor
                    Model Studies	     74

  4-3             Matrix of Complementary Uses of Receptor and Source
                    (Dispersion) Models 	     77

  4-4             Source (Dispersion) Model Capabilities Ratings  ...     91

  4-5             Appropriate Combinations of Wind Speed and Stability
                    for Use in PTDIS Screening Modeling Analayses ...     95

  4-6             Combinations of Wind Speed and Stability That Are
                     Likely To Persist for Extended Portions of 24-Hour
                     Periods	    110

  4-7             Assessment of Confidence in Dispersion Model Input
                    Parameters	    118

  4-8             Summary of the Three Level Approach 	    138

  5-1             Estimated Source Impacts at One Linn County, Iowa
                    Monitoring Location 	    143
                                       xv

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1.0 INTRODUCTION




    The  identification  of the Sources of ambient  suspended particulate matter




and  the  quantification  of  their  contributions  are   necessary  to  devise




strategies  to   attain  National   Ambient   Air   Quality  Standards   (NAAQS).




Currently, the  standards  of  concern  pertain to  total  suspended particulate




matter  (TSP),  but EPA  is considering  the  proposal of  a  revised NAAQS based




upon  particles   of   less  than  10  urn  aerodynamic   diameter   (PMio).   The




transport  of  particulate  matter from  source  to  receptor  is a complicated




phenomenon and  various  models and measurement systems have been formulated to




represent  it.   While these  models  and  systems  enhance  the  understanding of




reality,  no  model  can  be   a  perfect  representation  of  that  reality.   No




mathematical formulation can include all of  the variables which  are  known to




affect  particle concentrations at  a specific point and time.  No measurement




system  is  capable of providing values to all variables  which  can be  included




in  the  models.    However,  one must  work within the limitations of the models




and measurements  to develop the best possible approach to  source apportionment.




    Since  source apportionment analyses require both  measurements and models,




it is somewhat  difficult to develop a cost-effective procedure to quantify the




source  contributions to  pollutant  concentrations  at a  receptor.   A model, by




itself,  cannot  always be judged good or bad, or right or  wrong,  in a general



way.  The  model and the measurement processes, (which supply  the  data  on which



the model  operates and the  values  with which  its results  are compared),  and




the physical  situation being evaluated must  all be considered when designing a




source  apportionment  study,  to ensure that an adequate  level of  confidence in




the  study results will  be provided.   The  purposes of this document .are to 1)




summarize    the     information    which    will    facilitate    the    design
                                      -1-

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of a  source apportionment  study using a  combination of  receptor and  source

models,  2}  identify  approaches in  which  receptor  models  can be  used  to

increase the reliability  of source  (dispersion) models,  and 3)  identify ways

and conditions  under which  the  aforementioned receptor models  can be used in

concert (without a  dispersion model)  to provide  reliable estimates  o£  source

category contributions  to ambient particulate matter problems.  This document,

of necessity, contains abbreviated discussions of many subjects, so references

are provided if greater detail is needed.

    To  achieve  these purposes,  the  objectives  of  Volume V  in  the  Receptor

Model Technical Series are:


    •   Discuss  models which identify source contributions  to  receptor
        concentrations, their input data,  the assumptions on  which  they
        are  based,  and  the  effects  of  typical  deviations   from  those
        assumptions.

    •   Identify   measurements   which   these  models    require,   their
        availability,   the   additional   assumptions   imposed   by  these
        measurements,  and the effect  of  their precision  and  accuracy on
        modeling results.

    •   Present  approaches, for three levels  of  analysis detail, for the
        optimum  combinations  of models   and measurements  in   practical
        situations  and  illustrate these protocols with case studies.


    This  volume is  limited to  a discussion of analyses  involving particulate

matter, although some of the techniques presented  herein may  be  applicable to

analyses  of other pollutants.   This document  does  not attempt to define  a

specific policy for combining the use of  receptor and dispersion models or  for

reconciling differences   among  results;   however,   approaches   for   comparing

receptor and dispersion model results are  presented.

    Volume  V  is  intended  to  supplement  the  previous  four  volumes  in  the

Receptor Model  Technical  Series (U.S. EPA 1981a,  1981b, 1983a,  1983b) and  the

Guideline  on Air Quality  Models (U.S. EPA,  1978a).   Since it  has become  common
                                       -2-

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practice  to  do  so,  in  this volume  the  term  "model"  is  applied to  all the

analytical   (and   measurement)   techniques   used   in  source   apportionment

analyses.  Techniques  that  allocate  source  contributions based  primarily on

source  emissions  data  and  dispersion  calculations  are  called  source  or

dispersion models.   Techniques  that  primarily use  ambient measurements and

related  analytical methods to apportion source contributions  are all  called

receptor models.

    Much  of   the  information  on  the  following  pages  has  been  drawn  from

existing  studies  and  reports,  many  of  them  sponsored  by U.S.  EPA.   The

selection of the information included from these studies has been made by the

authors  and   the  reader  is referred  to  the  complete  reference  for  greater

detail.   It  is  hoped that the selection  is  of  sufficient detail  to  allow the

user  of  Volume  V to  conceptually design a  source apportionment  study with

limited support from other documents.   However, it will often  be necessary to

refer  to  the  more  detailed  documents  to  carry out  many  of  the  specific

analytical procedures described herein.

    Similarly,  the  protocols  described  here  are  illustrative   rather  than

definitive.   It  is  impossible  to anticipate  all  of  the  objectives,  available

resources,   and   site-specific   requirements   of   an   individual   aerosol

source-apportionment study.  Because  of the  uncertainties  inherent in  all of

the models,  it  is recommended that more  than one be used in forming the  basis

for "potentially costly decisions.  As Cooper  (1981) points out:


              "The  information  provided  by   these  models  is
              circumstantial  in  nature  and  the  results  from a
              single  interpretive   approach  at this  stage  of
              model  evaluation  may  be   insufficient  to  develop
              the  level   of  confidence  required  to  support
              strong action or clear decisions.   The objective
              of source  apportionment studies must be to build
              a   strong   enough   bridge   of   circumstantial
              information  to quantitatively  relate a source to
              an impact."


                                      -3-

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For  this  reason,  the  protocols  proposed  here  combine various  models  and




measurements in levels  ranging from  basic  analyses using  existing data  to a




custom-designed measurement and  analysis  study.   Each  level  of  application




requires greater  resources, but  should  yield  results  of higher  confidence.




These combinations of  source apportionment techniques, from  which  this volume




draws  its  title,  are  more likely  ".  .  . to  provide  decision makers  with




confidence that their  actions  will result  in  improved  air quality."   (Cooper,




1981).




    Two  types  of  models  are considered in this composite approach:   source and




receptor models.   Both are derived from the  same basic physical  principles,




but they differ  in the measurements on which they operate.  Source models  (for




general  reference  see  U.S.  EPA,   1978a;  Turner,  1970,  1979;  Hanna,  et al.,




1982) infer  an effect  from a cause.  They combine pollutant emission  rates and




meteorological variables  to calculate the pollutant concentration  at a set of




receptors.   Receptor models (for  general reference see U.S.  EPA 1981a; Macias




and Hopke,  1981;  Dattner and Hopke,  1983;  Henry,  et  al., 1983)  infer a cause




from  an effect.   They combine aerosol  properties measured  at  receptors with




those typical  of  potential sources to  calculate the contributions  which  each



source  could have made  to the receptor  concentrations.   Both types  of models




are  applicable  to  the  composite   source  apportionment  approach,   but   the



greatest  potential  benefit   results  from the combined  use  of   source   and




receptor models.




    Three  types   of   measurements  are   required  as  input  to  these  models:




emission rates and meteorological  variables are  required  by source models,  and




emission compositions, meteorological variables and ambient  concentrations  are




required by  receptor models.   The  availability,  quality,  and quantity of  these




measurements will  dictate which  of  the source  and   receptor  models  is  most
                                       -4-

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applicable to a situation and  the  accuracy,  precision, and  validity which can




be expected from the model results.




    This introduction has served to state the  objectives of  Volume V  in the




Receptor Model Technical  Series, place  it into perspective  with other volumes




in the  series and  EPA  guidelines, and  to preview  its  contents.    Section  2




identifies the  five step modeling process and the source and receptor models




which can be  used  for aerosol source apportionment studies.   The measurements




they  require  are  specified, and  the major assumptions imposed  by the models




and  their  measurements  are  listed.    In  several  cases,   verification  and




evaluation studies  have  been conducted  with these models, and relevant results




are  drawn  from them.   These studies indicate  the accuracy  of  model  results




which can be expected under ideal and typical  conditions.




    Section 3 deals with the measurements required by  the models specified in




Section  2.   Since  measurements   constitute  the  major   cost of  a  model




application,  already  available   or   easily   attainable  measurements   are




identified  whenever possible.  All measurements  required  by both  source and




receptor models possess  an  accuracy and precision which  should be  translated,




where possible, to  the  model result.  Typical accuracies and precisions of the




required measurements are stated in Section 3.




    In  Section 4,  the  considerations  in method selection are  discussed and




possible  combinations  of  source  and  receptor  models  and measurements  are




proposed  at  three  levels  of  detail.    Each  level  is more costly,  but  more




accurate and  precise, than  the previous level.   The first  level uses existing




measurements.   The  second   level   generally  requires  additional  analyses  of




existing  samples  and  may   require  some  new  monitoring.   The  third  level




requires  possible  development  and  deployment  of  new  measurement  systems.
                                      -5-

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Although three levels of analysis detail are discussed, this document  is not a




workbook  or procedures  manual  because  problems differ  in their  time frame,




nature,  existing  data   base   contents,   model  applicability   and  resource




availability.




    Applications of  the  protocols in each level ara  discussed in a  series of




case-studies  in Section  5.    The important  points  made  in  Volume  V  of the




Receptor Model Technical Series are summarized in Section 6.
                                       -6-

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2.0 SOURCE AND RECEPTOR MODELS




2.1 The Five Step Modeling Process




    Numerous air  quality simulation  models  of  both the  source and receptor




variety have  been proposed  over the  last  ten years.  However,  many of these




are variations of the same conceptual formulation and the most  useful of these




concepts have been  incorporated into a relatively small number of standardized




computer programs which  are  available to the  user  community without requiring




major modification.




    The use ' of any  model involves  a five step  process:   1)  development,  2)




verification, 3) evaluation,  4) application, and 5) validation.




    Model  development  is complete  when the  equations  constituting  the model




have  been  derived from basic physical  principles,  all  simplifying assumptions




have  been  stated, and  a standardized  procedure,  including  operations  manual




and  computer  programs,  have  been written and agreed upon.   This  volume does




not address model development beyond that which has already taken place.




    Model  verification  (after Fox,  1981)  consists of comparing the values of




the  model  calculations  with  corresponding  measured  values  for  the  same




variables  under  conditions  for  which deviations  from  model  and  measurement




assumptions are  known  to be  the  minimum possible.   One  can expect  no better




agreement  between calculated  and  measured  values  than  that  obtained  by the



model verification.




   "Model  evaluation (also  after Fox,  1981)  involves  the  comparison between



corresponding  calculated and  measured  quantities  under  conditions of known




deviations  from model  and measurement  assumptions.   The  evaluation results in




a  correspondence  between changes  in the model  calculations  (with  respect to




that  achieved by the  model  verification) and  a quantifiable  deviation from




each assumption.  The reader is  referred to  the results of  the Quail Roost II
                                      -7-

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Workshop for further  discussion  of model verification and  evaluation (Stevens




and Pace, 1984).




    The results of these verification and evaluation  studies  are important and




should  be  part of  the knowledge  of  every model  user.  Model  verification




studies  have  compared calculated  and measured  concentrations  under  the most




favorable   modeling  conditions;   in   most  cases   they   show   significant




discrepancies even under these  best-case conditions.  These  discrepancies are




typical  of  the minimum  differences  between model  calculations  and reality




which  a  modeler  can  expect  to  find  in  less   controlled  but  practical




situations.   Evaluation studies  have  compared  model-calculated  and measured




concentrations   under  less-favorable   but   known  conditions.    When    these




conditions  are  similar to  those  under  which  the modeler is  working, the




discrepancies found  in  the evaluation studies may be representative of  those




which will be found in the modeler's application.




    Model  development,  verification and evaluation are  not the responsibility




of  the  routine  model user.  They are typically  performed on  a generic basis by




the  developer  of the model or by  EPA with  the  results   made  available  to the




user.   Significant  progress has  been made  in the verification and  evaluation



of many  models.



    The  application  step  involves  acquisition  of  the necessary  measurements,




running  the model, and  interpreting the  results  with respect to the  objectives




of  the study.   This application step  is  the  focus of  this document.




    The  validation  step consists of determining the  extent to which model and




measurement   assumptions  were  met   for   the   particular  application,  and




ascertaining  from the  model evaluation studies  the quantitative  effects of




deviation from  those  assumptions  on  the  model results.   Criteria for  model




validation are  discussed further in Stevens  and  Pace, (1984).   The  application




and validation  steps  of the  process are  the  responsibility  of the  user.






                                       —8—

-------
    In the  following subsections, the presently available  source and receptor




models for  relating source  contributions  to  receptor  concentrations will  be




associated  with their  basic assumptions  and  the measurements  they require.




Summaries of their verifications and evaluations are provided.








2.2 Source Models



    Source  models  predict  pollutant  concentrations  in  the  atmosphere  using




emissions and  meteorological data.   Most  source  models  presently in  use are




Gaussian  kinematic  models.   These  models  are  based  on  assumptions  of  a




steady-state atmosphere and a Gaussian or normal distribution o£ pollutants in




the horizontal  and  vertical  directions.   Source  models  employ equations that




calculate the dispersion of emissions in the atmosphere and are therefore also




called  dispersion  models.   Source  models  are  now widely  used  in regulatory




applications, especially  to determine the effects  of  proposed new  sources or




changes  in  the  emission  characteristics  of  existing  sources.  Since this




document  is part of the  receptor  model  technical series,  the  discussion of




source  models   is   limited  to their use  in developing control  strategies for




State  Implementation  Plans  (SIPs).   Also,  although  many  verification  and




evaluation  studies  have  been performed for  source models,  these  studies are




not given as detailed treatment  in  this document  as  are such studies  for the



receptor models.








    2.2.1   Non-Computer Source Modeling Approaches




    Simple  source  models can  be  used  to  obtain  estimates  of  the  maximum




potential   contribution   of   individual  sources.   Commonly  used  methods  for




obtaining   such estimates  can   be  found   in  the  Workbook  of  Atmospheric
                                       -9-

-------
Dispersion Estimates by Turner  (1970) and  in Volume 10R of  the  Guidelines for




Air Quality Maintenance Planning  and Analysis (U.S. EPA,  1977a).   As shown in




these references,  reasonable  estimates of  aggregate source  contributions can




also  often  be  determined  using  simple  "box"  models  where  total  source




emissions are calculated  to  be dispersed within defined geographic boundaries




based on mean  climatological  conditions.   Such models are most appropriate for




non-reactive pollutants and areas with standard meteorological  regimes.   They




are most  often used with gross emission estimates  for multiple  sources  in an




area but could be  used in single  source applications.  They are generally not




appropriate for  pollutants such  as particulate matter,  especially for larger




time-distance  scales,  since  factors such  as  washout  and  settling  enter as




important considerations.








    2.2.2  Computer Based Models




    Most  new  sources  ara presently reviewed  for  their  air quality impacts




using  computerized dispersion  models.   Dispersion  models are also often used




to determine air  quality  impacts  from aggregate emissions on a regional  basis




for  air quality  planning purposes.  Guidance  regarding  the use of dispersion



models  in  contained  in  EPA's   Guideline  on  Air  Quality  Models  (U.S.  EPA,




1978a).   EPA  has  developed a  series of models which are recommended for use in



air  quality permitting and  planning  applications.  Models developed  by the




State  of Texas are also  currently  recommended for such use.   The  EPA  and  Texas




models  are available  on  computer  tape  as  part of Version   5 of EPA's User's




Network for  Applied  Modeling of   Air  Pollution  (UNAMAP)   Series  (U.S.   EPA,




19S3c).   Table  2-1 provides  a  summary  of  the  features,  input,  output and




applicability  of  many  of these  widely-used  computerized   source  models and




further discussions  of these models follow.
                                       -10-

-------
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-------
    2.2.2.1  PTMAX, PTDIS, PTMTP




    PTMAX,  PTDIS  and  PTMTP   (U.S.  EPA,  1983c)  are  three models  used  for




screening purposes  in  relatively simple situations.  PTMAX  and  PTDIS are used




in  single source  analyses.   PTMTP  can be  used to analyze  multiple sources.




Generally PTMAX is used to obtain  an estimate of maximum  impacts  for a single




point  {i.e.,  stack)  source.   PTMTP is  used  to  obtain maximum combined impacts




from several point sources under worst-case meteorological conditions.








    2.2.2.2  PTPLU




    PTPLU  (U.S.  EPA,  1982c)  has been developed by EPA  as an improved version




of  the PTMAX model  and has  generally replaced PTMAX  in  screening  analyses.




PTPLU  determines  maximum concentrations  from  a  single  point  source  under




various  wind speed/stability combinations.    PTPLU  can  accommodate non-zero




receptor  elevations  and  includes  the effects  of wind  speed  increase with




height, gradual  plume rise,   and buoyancy-induced  dispersion.   PTPLU is often




used   to   select   receptor   points   for   sophisticated   hour-by-hour  model




calculations.








    2.2.2.3   PAL




    The  PAL model (U.S. EPA,  1978b)  is the  only EPA developed model  which will




accept point, area,  and line  sources.  Area  sources  are used  to  represent




groups of small sources and  line  sources are used  to represent  roads and other




similar  sources.   This gives  the  model considerable flexibility in analyzing




complex   urban   sources   and   proposed   developments.    User-defined   hourly




meteorological  data for  worst-case  situations  are  generally   used  as  input.




Only  flat terrain  is  simulated.
                                       -18-

-------
    2.2.2.4  CRSTER




    The  CRSTER model   (U.S.  EPA  1977b)  calculates  impacts  from single  or




collocated point sources  using  hourly meteorological data  generally developed




from  National  Weather  Service   (NWS)  observations.   Usually  a  full  year  of




meteorological data  is  used for a single  analysis.   The CRSTER  user's manual




(U.S.  EPA,  1977a)  summarizes results of  several  studies which  evaluated the




model's accuracy.  Most of these  studies  showed reasonable  agreement between




measured  and modeled values  but noted problems in determining background and




obtaining reliable concentrations in elevated terrain situations.








    2.2.2.5  TEM-8




    TEM-8  (Texas  Air Control Board,  1979)  is  a model  developed by the Texas




Air  Control  Board  for   calculating   short-term   ambient  concentrations  of




pollutants  from  point  and area  sources.   TEM-8  does  not  use  a  one  year




hour-by-hour meteorological  data set  as is  common  to EPA-developed short-term




models.    Instead   TEM-8  allows   up  to   24   user-generated  meteorological




scenarios.   The  input  meteorological  data are assumed  to be representative of




a given time period  ranging from 10 to 180 minutes.




    The  concentration  prediction  algorithms in TEM-8  involve  the  use of the




standard  Gaussian  distribution  of  concentrations   in  the horizontal,  but, the



horizontal   distribution  values  used  in  the  model   are  believed  to  be




appropriate  for ten minute  averaging  times  only.   Meteorological scenarios




which  produce  concentration predictions  for other  than ten minute averaging




periods  use horizontal concentration  distribution values  which are  adjusted




from  the  ten minute  values, depending upon the averaging  time.




    TEM-8  calculates   concentrations  from  normalized   concentration/emission




(X/Q)  values using  a  table  look-up  procedure  that  is  dependent  upon plume
                                      -19-

-------
'.eight,  stability,  downwind distance,  and  averaging  time.   This  procedure




•aves    considerable   computation   time   in   comparison   to   calculating




:oncentrations  using the  Gaussian equation as  is  done  in most  EPA-developed




•.odels.




   TEM-8 predicts pollutant concentrations on  a rectilinear grid with spacing




letermined  by the user.  All receptors  are  assumed to have  an elevation equal




:o  the  stack  base.   Pollutant  deposition or transformation can be  simulated




ising  an exponential decay function.








   2.2.2.6  MPTER




   MPTER   (U.S.  EPA,  1980a) is  a  dispersion  model  similar  to CRSTER  which




illows analysis of  multiple distinct  point  sources located  in level  or gently




•oiling terrain.   It  also uses  a  year of  hourly  meteorological  data  and




iffords greater flexibility in  data input and output.








   2.2.2.7  COMPLEX I  and II




   Complex I  and II  (U.S. EPA,  1983c)  are two  models  used  for  dispersion




lodeling analyses  of  point sources  located  in complex  terrain.   They  use a



'ear  of hourly  on-site or NWS  preprocessed meteorology  in the  CRSTER format.



Complex  I   and  II  differ  in  their  computation of  horizontal  dispersion.




Complex  I   assumes   pollutants  are  dispersed  uniformly  into  a  22.5  degree




lownwind   sector,   while   Complex  II  uses  a  standard  Gaussian  horizontal




listribution.  Inputs and outputs for Complex I and II are similar to MPTER.








    2.2.2.8  RAM




    The RAM model  (U.S.  EPA,  1978c) is used to analyze multiple point and area




sources  on  an  hour-by-hour  basis.   A  one  year  meteorological  data   set
                                      -20-

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similar to  the  CRSTER input is employed by RAM.  RAM is currently the only EPA




model  to  include  urban  dispersion  coefficients,   developed  by McElroy  and




Pooler.  RAM  is  recommended for use in urban  areas to determine the aggregate




impacts of multiple point and area sources.








    2.2.2.9  ISC




    The Industrial Source  Complex (or ISC) model (U.S.  EPA,  1979a)  is used to




calculate air quality impacts  from single or  multiple  point,  area,  or volume




source   emissions.    Volume   sources  are   used   to   provide   an  improved




representation  of  certain  elevated area  sources  such as  roof  monitors  and




storage piles.   Both a  short-term (ISCST) and a long-term  (ISCLT)  version of




the  model  are  available.    The ISCST  model   uses  hourly meteorological  data




derived from  NWS observations  in a CRSTER preprocessed format.  Meteorological




input  to  ISCLT  consists of a  joint frequency-stability  wind  rose  developed




from  one or  more years  of hourly  NWS observations.   The  ISC models  have a




number of options involving  input  and  output  data and  contain  a great deal of




flexibility  regarding input  source  information.   Two  capabilities  unique to




ISC  among EPA developed models are  the ability  to account  for  building wake




effects  and  particle deposition  caused  by  gravitational settling.   The  ISC



model's  superior  capabilities for  handling  various  types   of  sources  and




particle  deposition  make  it the most useful model for  source/receptor modeling




applications.   An  evaluation  of  the ISC  model  performed by EPA showed that




predicted and observed calculations  for both  the deposition  and building wake




options generally  produced agreement within a factor of two,  although  it  was




noted  that  appropriate specification of  the  building  dimensions  affecting




initial plume dispersion was difficult  (U.S. EPA, 1981c).
                                      -21-

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    2.2.2.10  Valley




    The  Valley  model  (U.S.   EPA,  1977c)  is  used  to  determine  pollutant




concentrations at receptor  locations  with receptor elevations greater than the




height of the  emission  point  being  modeled.   Multiple  non-collocated sources




as well as  area  sources can be modeled with Valley.  The Valley model computes




annual  average  concentrations  based on  a  stability  wind  rose  similar  to




ISCLT.  Twenty-four hour  concentrations  that  are  assumed to  represent high




second-high values for a year are calculated using  worst-case  meteorology.  An




analysis  of the  Valley model  given  in the Valley user's guide  describes a




general overprediction when the  model is used in its  short-term mode compared




to measured SOz concentrations.




    2.2.2.11  AQDM




    The AQDM  model  (TRW,  1969)  calculates annual  average concentrations  of




sulfur  dioxide  or  particulate  matter  in  urban areas..   Both  point  and area




sources may be used as  input.   Concentrations can  be  determined at a program-




generated  rectangular  grid  of  receptors  and at  discrete  receptors,  both of




which can be  user-defined.   Meteorological input consists  of  a stability-wind




rose  similar  to  that used by other long term models.  However,  in AQDM the  two



stable categories,  E and F, and combined into a  single stable condition.  AQDM



uses  the  standard Gaussian dispersion curves but it is  assumed  that urban heat




island  effects produce neutral  stability when  the input  meteorological data




indicate  stable  conditions.    Thus  only  the vertical  dispersion  values  for




stabilities  A through  D  are  used  in  the model.   Horizontal  dispersion  is




assumed  equal throughout  a 22.5  degree downwind  sector  for  all  stabilities.




AQDM  uses  the  Holland plume rise  formulation,  rather than the Briggs  equations




used  in other EPA  models.  AQDM has  a  calibration feature, similar to  that in




COM,  that allows  for adjustment  of  predicted concentrations  based on  actual




measured  values  from a  monitoring network.






                                       -22-

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    2.2.2.12  TCM-2

    TCM-2  (Texas  Air Control Board,  1980),  is a model developed by the Texas

Air  Control  Board  for use  in  their permitting  analyses.   TCM-2  calculates

long-term  (seasonal  or annual)  concentrations of pollutants  on a user-defined

rectilinear grid.  A  stability  wind-rose is  generally used  as meteorological

input.   The  model  can  handle  both point  and  area sources  and  allows  for

exponential  pollutant  decay.   A  least-squares  algorithm  is  provided  for

calibrating  predicted  concentrations to  observed  values.  TCM-2  is  a flat

terrain model, i.e., all receptors  are  assumed to be  located at the elevation

of the stack base.

    The   TCM-2   algorithm  employs   several   techniques   which   reduce  the

computation time  of  the model compared to other  long-term models such as CDM.

These  include use  of  a  table  look-up  scheme  for  determining x/Q  dilution

values,  use  of   a  single  mean  wind speed  for  a given  stability  and wind

direction,  and  the  omission of  mixing  height-induced  multiple  reflection
                                               rf
calculations.  The user's  guide presents a  discussion of these computation-

reducing  features.



    2.2.2.13  CDM/CDMQC

    The CDM/CDMQC model  (U.S. EPA, 1973, 1977d)  is used to  calculate multiple

point and area source  impacts in urban areas on a  quarterly or annual average

basis.   A stability  wind  rose  is  used as meteorological  input to CDM,  CDM

does not  include  terrain effects in its algorithms.   A useful  feature of this

model  is  the  ability  to  adjust  predicted   concentrations based on  a  linear

regression against monitoring data from a network of  stations.   The CDM  user's
                                      -23-

-------
guide describes an  example  study in which this  adjustment  was used  to offset




over-predictions of S02 concentrations.








2.3 Receptor Models




    Receptor models  can be used for  a  variety of purposes.   This  document is




limited to discussion  of  applications that allocate ambient  concentrations of




particulate  matter  to  the  contributing  sources.    In the context  of  the




development of  SIPs,  receptor models  are used for  the purpose  of  formulating




and  demonstrating  the  effectiveness  of  control  strategies  to  attain  and




maintain NAAQS.  Since there is great complexity involved in  the transport and




transformation  of  emissions  from multiple sources  to the particulate matter




measured at a receptor site, no single model has superior applicability to all




source  apportionment  analyses.   In  addition,  more than  one model  should be




applied  in any given  analysis   to  ensure  the  reliability   of the  analysis




results  and  the  cost-effectiveness  of  any  control  strategies subsequently




developed.




    The  various quantitative  and semi-quantitative  receptor  models  that  have




been developed  and  applied  to accomplish this purpose  are  listed in Table 2-2



along  with their  positive  and  negative  features,  required  input  data, their




outputs,  and the  commonly  available measurements to  which  they are  applied.



As  noted earlier, the detail  presented here  is  considerably greater than  that




given  for source models in  keeping  with the  title  of  this  technical  series.




Reference  is  made to  other  publications documenting  the  specific procedures




for using  a model.
                                       -24-

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-------
   2.3.1  Chemical  Mass Balance Model




   The mass  balance  model  (Friedlander,  1973; Watson,  et al.,  1981;  Cooper




id Watson, 1980;  Henry, et al.,  1983)  solves a set of  equations  to determine




le combination of  source contributions  that provides a best  fit to measured




nbient  concentrations  of  selected  particulate  matter   components  (i.e.,




lemical  elements,  ions,  or  compounds;  size  fractions;   or   other  measured




roperties.)  The  mass balance model, which is also known as  the chemical mass




alance  (CMB),  chemical  element balance  (CEB) and  chemical  species balance




Ddel  in  the literature,  requires  information  concerning  the   composition  of




oth  source  emissions  and  ambient  concentrations.   Refined  results  can  be




btained  if  the  component  concentrations  are compiled  on  a  particle-size




gecific basis.




   In the  mass balance equations,  the  total  ambient  concentration  (C)  of a




omponent  (i) from  all sources (j)  is set  equal to  the linear  sum  of the




roducts  of  1)   the   component's  fractional  mass  contribution   (F)  to  the




ource's  total emissions,  and 2) the source's fractional mass  contribution  (S)




o the total  ambient concentration measured at the  receptor:






                                    C— V&   *C 1 J " J






hus,  if  the total   ambient  particulate  matter  concentration   (within   the




pecified size  range)  and  the  (corresponding)  ambient and source  component




oncentrations "are measured,   source  contributions  to  the  receptor  can  be




alculated.




   The  simultaneous   solution  of the mass  balance  equations   is  an integral




art  of the mass  balance  model.  There  are a number of  available solutions to




he mass  balance  equations.  The tracer  solution (Miller, et al.,  1972,  Kneip,




t  al.,  1972)  assumes  certain  tracer  properties are   unique to  each  source
                                      -28-

-------
type.  It  is  the simplest solution and unlike  other solution methods requires




no  computer.   The  intent of  the  linear programming  solution  (Mayrsohn and




Crabtree,  1976;  Henry,  1977,  Hougland, 1983) is to find optimum values for the




source   contributions.    The   ordinary   weighted   least   squares   solution




(Friedlander,  1973),  which  weights  variables  by  the  inverse squares  of the




precisions  of the ambient concentrations, has been supplemented by  the more




general  effective variance  least  squares solution  (Britt and  Luecke,   1973;




Dunker,  1979; Watson,  1979;  Watson,  et  al.,   1983).   The  effective  variance




solution  includes weighting by  the precisions of the source  compositions as




well as weighting by the precisions of the ambient concentrations.   The  intent




is  to  weight  the most precisely known measurements most heavily in arriving at




a  least  squares  solution yielding  source contributions  to  observed ambient




concentrations  of particulate  matter.   The  effective variance  least squares




solution  is more valid than the  ordinary least  squares  solution only  if the




precision  of  the source  data are  known.   Such  data  are often  missing   or of




poor quality.   A ridge regression  solution  (U.S.  EPA,  1983a) is  intended to




minimize  instabilities in  a  least  square  solution when  two or  more  source




categories  being considered  have  similar  chemical  compositions.    In   ridge




regression,  the goal is  to  introduce a small  bias  into  the solution in  order




to  achieve a large reduction in  the  random  error, so that  the total  error is




reduced.   As  Henry  has  shown (1982),  the  introduction  of  such  a  bias can




result in an underlying source matrix that  is  not representative of  the true




source profiles.   Ridge regression should not  be  used indiscriminately,   as if




its  application  would  automatically   eliminate  all  problems   caused  by




multicollinearity,  since  it cannot  be guaranteed  that its  use  will produce a




better solution  than conventional least squares in every application.




    The assumptions of  the mass balance model are  (Watson, 1982):
                                      -29-

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    •   Compositions of source emissions  are  constant over the  period  of
        ambient and source sampling.

    •   Components  (e.g.  chemical  species)  do not react with  each other,
        i.e., they add linearly.

    •   All  sources  with  a potential  for  significantly contributing  to
        the  receptor have been  identified and  have had their  emissions
        characterized.

    •   The number of sources or  source categories is less than or equal
        to the number of components.

    •   The source compositions are linearly independent of each other.

    •   Measurement   errors   are   random,   uncorrelated,  and   normally
        distributed.
    Model  verification  and   evaluation  studies  have  been   conducted  and

published by  Watson (1979),  Gordon,  et al.,  (1981);  Currie,  et al., (1983);

and  Dzubay,   et  al.,  (1983).   These  studies  consist of  1)  comparison  of

different  mass  balance  solutions  operating  on  the  same  measured  data,  2)

comparison of different  solutions  applied to  simulated data  with  the  known

source  contributions  from which  the  data  are  derived,   and  3)  analytical

examination of the  solutions   of  the  mass  balance equations.    The  results of

those  evaluations   as  they relate  to the  above assumptions are  discussed in

Appendix A.

    The   selection  of   source   types,   source   compositions   and  aerosol

measurements  is  an  integral part of the mass  balance  model  application.   This

selection  is  often dictated  by the  measurements which  are  or can be made

available".  These measurements are the subject of  Section 3.

    Volume III of  this technical series (U.S. EPA, 1983a) describes  a chemical

mass  balance  model  algorithm   developed  for EPA.  Other, similar mass balance

model  algorithms have also been developed.   These models  are  usually applied

by  allowing  the  user  to add  various  source  types and types  of ambient  data

into  one of  the solution  methods  until most of  the  measured properties at  a
                                       -30-

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receptor  are  accounted  for by  the  source  contributions.   Unfortunately,  in




some cases, several mathematical  "solutions" can be found  which "account" for




these  receptor  properties  equally well,  with  no  detrimental  effects  on the




least  squares  fitting  criteria.    In intercomparisons  of  a  number of  mass




balances  solutions  applied to a  9-day average,  size-segregated particle data




base  from Houston,  Texas, Dzubay,  et  al.,  (1983)   found  several  different




solutions  which  were  considered  acceptable by  the participants.   In similar




intercomparisons  using  simulated  data,  a  number  of  different,  acceptable




solutions  were   found to  the mass  balance  equations also  (Currie, et  al.,




1983), as was the  case when multivariate techniques were  used.  Watson (1979)




observed  that  "The receptor  model tells what  could  be  the contributors, not




necessarily what  the  contributors  are."   The  results from  the  Houston  data




base analysis reaffirm that it is advisable to have a qualitative knowledge of




the  contributing   sources  before  seeking  to  obtain   quantitative  source




contribution estimates using the mass balance model.




    The major contributors to average concentrations in the simulated data set




were  estimated,  for  the  most  part,  to  be  within +30  percent of  their true




values.  Minor contributors were often within a factor of  two (Currie, et al.,




1983).  Although the  true contributions in  Houston were  unknown,  the range of



values  for  most  source types was  less  than  a factor  of  two  (Dzubay,  et al.,




1983).   A  further  note  of caution  on  the  Houston analyses,  as well  as for




analyses  conducted previously  in  other  cities  (U.S.  EPA,  1981b),  is  that




sulfate,  nitrate,   carbon  and   crustal  material  are  defined  by  chemical




characteristics  and  not  their   sources.    Therefore,  continued  research  is




required   to   obtain  parameters   that  will   account   for  the  generation,




transformation  and  removal  of   particles   during  transport   from  source  to




receptor.
                                      -31-

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    The  uncertainty  of  the mass  balance  results  is  probably comparable  on




average  to  that expected  of source  models  intended to  accomplish  the  same




purpose.  Some  aspects of  this  problem are  discussed for  the simulated data




set (Currie, et  al.,  1983) by Gerlach, et  al.,  (1982),  and more  generally  by




Henry (1982).








    2.3.2  Factor Analysis




    Factor analysis solutions can be obtained  by different methods.   Classical




factor  analysis or  principal component  analysis  can be  applied  to ambient




sample composition measurements at a receptor to produce a set of uncorrelated




factors   which   are   associated   with   various   sources.    Under  certain




circumstances,  these factors can  be  interpreted  as  being  representative  of




specific sources  and,  using additional steps, can  provide estimates of source




emission  compositions.    Factor  analysis  for  receptor  modeling  requires




elemental  and  chemical  or other  constituent  concentration  measurements  at




receptors,   but  does  not   require  quantitative   characterization   of  source




emissions.    However,   some  qualitative   information  on   sources  and  the




characteristics  of  the  local   meteorology are  necessary  to  interpret  the



factors  (Cooper and Watson, 1980).  The  derived source emission compositions




can  then be used in a  mass balance to determine the  relative contribution of




different sources to each  observed  concentration.




    Factors  are derived from the  correlations of  observed particulate matter




or other  ambient  concentration  measurements  that   represent  different time




periods  of  sampling  at a  receptor  location.   Factor  analysis assumes that the




composition  of  particulate  matter from a  given source  remains constant over




all  of  the  ambient  samples and  that  inter-species  correlations  are  due to




changes  in  source strength.  Advantages of factor  analysis  include  the  ability




to distinguish among sources which contain the same constituents  (in different






                                       -32-

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proportions), the  ability to  identify previously unsuspected  sources  and  no




requirement  of   quantitative  source  composition measurements.   Disadvantages




include added complexity,  the  need to  impose  arbitrary constraints  on source




emission composition  in order  to obtain a  unique solution, and  the need for




detailed  ambient  composition   data  for  a  relatively  large  set  of  ambient




measurements.  However, the  latter can provide information on sources over the




course  of  a  season  (Kneip,  et  al.,   1983;  Morandi,  et  al.,   1983) or  year




(Kleinman, et  al., 1980;  Thurston,  1983)  if  sufficient samples  are taken to




satisfy statistical constraints.  For mass balance analyses,  a  limited (one or




more)  number of samples  are  required in each season,  but  more source testing




may be necessary.




    The  factor   analysis  model  (Henry,  1977; Kleinman,  et  al.,  1980;  Hopke,




1981;  1983;  Henry,  et al., 1983) consists  of  1)  forming a  correlation matrix




by summing over  aerosol samples  (known as "Q mode") or over  aerosol  properties




(known  as  "R  mode"),  2)  finding  the  eigenvalues  and eigenvectors   of  the




correlation  matrix,  3)  discarding a  number  of eigenvectors  and eigenvalues




which  are  deemed  insignificant;  the  number of  values  remaining  are examined




and   interpreted  for  identification  of  source  types,  4)  forming  linear




combinations of  eigenvectors  which represent  source  compositions  or choosing




representative  tracers,  and  5)  using these  source  compositions  in the mass



balance  equations.   Each  of  these steps  includes  a  variety of  options,  the




selection of which  differentiates one factor analysis model from another.




    Correlation  or  covariance  matrices around  the mean  or the origin  can be




used  (Rozett and Peterson, 1975; Duewer, et al., 1976) in R-mode, or in Q-mode




(Alpert and  Hopke,  1980;   1981).   These matrices  can contain  as  many aerosol




properties and  as  many samples as desired  (available),  though Henry,  et al.,




(1983) estimate  that  the minimum  number of samples needed is:
                                      -33-

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                                 n + 3
                    m  >  30  +    2

    where m = number of samples
          n = number of aerosol properties



Henry,  et al.,  (1983) conclude  that  if 20 aerosol  properties are  used,  an


adequate  correlation  matrix can  be formed only  if  at least  42  samples  are
       •
available.

    The  determination  o£  eigenvalues  and  eigenvectors  is  performed  by  a


variety  of  computer subroutines  which are common  to  most computer libraries,

and though individual algorithms vary, they yield essentially the same results.

    The  selection  of  the  number of eigenvalues to  retain is open to question.

Alpert (1980) proposed five criteria: 1) eigenvalue equal  to  1,  2)  chi square,

3)  Exner  function,  4)  root  mean  square  (RMS)  error,  and  5)  indicator

function.  Alpert  (1980)  found most of these tests indicated the  same number

of  significant  aerosol sources in  practical applications, but that for certain


cases  they  were  inconsistent.   Hopke  (1982)   warns  that   "Many  statistical

packages,  including  BMDP  and SPSS,  set  the  eigenvalue of  1  criterion as

default   and  do  not  examine  additional  factors   unless   the  default  is

specifically  counter-manded.    This  procedure  can   lead  to  exclusion  of

significant  factors."  Thus an appropriate test  for  selecting  the  number of

contributing sources  from  the available  eigenvectors needs to be developed.

For principal component analysis,  Roscoe, et al.,  (1982) have  suggested that

for eigenvalues  of less  than 1  to  be  included,  the variance  of  a rotated

factor  should be greater  than  1.

     Selected eigenvectors  can be  more  easily related to source  compositions

after a  vector rotation has  been  done by a 1)  varimax, 2) quadrimax,  or 3)

target  transformation method.   The target  transformation method has been  shown
                                       -34-

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to be useful  for  aerosol receptor models by Hopke, et al., (1983).  However it




is constrained by the selection of the profile used as a  target.   Henry (1977)




chose targets which  were actual source compositions  similar  to those known to




be present  in the study area by  minimizing the  sums  of the  squares between




target and  rotated vector coordinates.   The new vector  coordinates  were taken




to be a more refined estimate of the true source composition.




    Recently  Thurston  (1983)   used  principal  component  analysis  for  source




identification in Boston,  Massachusetts.  In  this  instance,   the  factor  scores




were  adjusted to absolute  zero and the resultant adjusted factor scores were




used to conduct a mass balance analysis.








    2.3.3  Multiple Linear Regression




    Regression techniques  provide a  straightforward  method  for characterizing




the  composition   of  a  set  of  concentration measurements.    Multiple  linear




regression  provides   a   least-squares   solution  which  apportions  a  total  or




size-segregated  particulate  matter   concentration among  a  set  of  chemical




elements and/or other constituents.  The general form of the  solution  is:






                   ? = Ao 4- A! Xi + A2 X2 +  . . . An Xn,






where  Y  is  the  observed  concentration,  the  X4's  represent  the  various




constituents,  and the   coefficients  At  are  calculated  to  provide  a  least




squares fit to the data.




    Unlike  the mass  balance method,  multiple  linear regression,  taken  alone,




does  not  require  data regarding the composition of the emissions from sources,




and does not directly identify  source contributions  to  ambient concentrations,




unless proper  selection techniques (e.g.,  factor  analyses) are used to select




the  constituents  that  are  analyzed.   The  analyst  must  separately  determine
                                      -35-

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which  sources  are  responsible for  emitting  a specific  element  or  chemical

species and ensure that tracers are available for use in the analyses.

    The  assumptions  of the  multiple  linear  regression  model  taken  alone

include the following:


    •   All of  the important  constituents of  ambient  particulate matter
        have been identified and measured.

    •   The   contributions  of   different   constituents   are   linearly
        independent of one another.

    •   For  any  given  set  of  constituent  values  (Xt's),  the  observed
        concentration values  are normally distributed.



    The multiple  linear regression results will rank the independent variables

(constituents) in  order of importance, for explaining  variations in the total

concentration,  and  will  also  identify  those  constituents  which  play  no

significant role in explaining variations  in  the total concentration.

    The  above  is  a  very rudimentary  approach  to  the  analysis of  source

apportionment  data.   However, if  multiple regression  techniques  are  coupled

with   procedures   that  independently  identify  the   Xi's,  the  regression

analyses  can  be  applied  to  mass  balance  calculations.   Kleinman,  et al.,

(1980) published work  for  New York City that used  cluster and factor analysis

to  identify  source profiles  and  subsequently selected  fairly  unique tracers

for use  in a  stepwise regression model  to  apportion  the  ambient particulate

matter mass.   Subsequently,  Kneip, et al.,  (1983)  and Morandi,   et al.,  (1983)

used  the Factor Analysis/stepwise  Multiple Regression Receptor Model (FA/MRRM)

to  apportion size-selected samples  for New  York City  and the  Airborne Toxic

Elements   and  Organic  Substances   (ATEOS)   site   in   Newark,   New  Jersey,

respectively.   Hopke,  et  al.,  (1983) applied scaling factors  to his  source

profiles  obtained from target transformation  and  used a  regression  model  to

attribute   the  ambient mass  measurements.    As  mentioned   in   the  previous


                                       -36-

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section,  Thurston  (1983)  has   developed   adjusted   (absolute)   principal




components for source types  that  were subsequently used  in  a regression model




to apportion the ambient mass.








    2.3.4  Optical Microscopy




    Examination of particles collected  on a  filter medium  using  an optical




microscope provides  insights into  the origins of  particulate matter (Draftz,




et al.,  1980;  Crutcher,  1982;  U.S. EPA,  1981a;  1983b).  In the hands  of an




experienced  microscopist,   optical  microscopy  (OM),   also  known  as  light




microscopy  (LM)  and polarized  light  microscopy  (PLM), can  often yield  a




semi-quantitative  determination of the  relative  contributions of source types




if  the  categories  of  sources  are  few  in  number  and  produce  completely




different  types  of  particles,  e.g.,  distinguishing  between  particles  of




mineral  origin  such  as  road  dust  and  particles  produced  by  combustion




processes (Throgmorton and Axtell,  1978).




    Particles  may be examined  in  situ  on the filter  medium with  or without




immersion oil  or  may be  removed  with  adhesives,  probes, or ultrasonically for




examination  under more controlled  conditions.  However,  any method  in which




the  particles  are removed  from the  original  filter media  may compromise the




representativeness of the analysis  and produce biased results.



    Particle  sizes  below about  1  or  2  urn  cannot be  readily  identified by




optical  microscopy   since   these  particle   sizes  begin   to   approach  the




wave-length  of visible light.   Since ambient  particle  size distributions are




typically bi-modal,  consisting  of two families of  particles,  with the mode of




one  greater than about  10  urn  and the mode  of  the other  less  than about 2




pm, most fine particles cannot be identified using  optical microscopy.




    Particles  can  be  examined  by  both  reflected  and  transmitted   light.




Transmitted light may be  polarized  by any of a number  of orientations allowing






                                      -37-

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the skilled microscopist  to  identify a variety  of mineral  species.   Although




color photographs  of known  particle types are helpful to  the  microscopist in




making  particle  and,  hence,  contributing source  identifications,  (McCrone,




1973),  many  analysts prefer  to  have source  emission  samples collected within




the study area.




    The various  material  characteristics  that are  examined include structure,




transparency,  color, and  optical properties.   The  identification system  is




used  with a   series of  tables  such  as  those  found  in  Kerr  (1959)  which




associate  the observed  properties  or  parameters  with  a   list  of  materials




having  those  properties.   Some  of the properties  observed are:   color, habit




(shape and form), cleavage, index of  refraction,  isotropic  versus anisotropic,




birefringence, arid uniaxial versus biaxial.




    Particles  that have  been identified are  grouped within categories  such as




combustion products,  minerals,  biological  material (e.g., pollen), rubber, and




eventually a miscellaneous or unknown category.




    In  order  to  assign  a quantitative  value to  the  relative abundance  of a




given species  it is  necessary to carry out  a particle  size distribution for




each  of  the  identified  categories.   Then,  if  a  particle  density   can  be



assigned  to each  category, the relative percentage  by  weight for each category




can be  estimated.




    Several  attempts  have  been made  to   evaluate  the   reproducibility  of




microscopic    analysis   or  particle   collections  by   such   techniques  as




inter-laboratory  analysis of blind  replicate  samples.   The  results  show wide




disagreement  in  results  among analysts.   Factors  contributing  to differences




in the  results   of  analyses  by  skilled  microscopists  include:   1)   lack of




common agreement concerning  particle  removal  or  in  situ  examination;  2)




disagreement   over   source   classification groupings,  3)   different  particle




sizing and counting methods,  and 4)  statistical  counting  errors (e.g. if  103






                                       -38-

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particles  of  Sum  diameter  and  2.5  g/cm3  density  are  examined,  only  0.3




Vig  out  of  a  typical  deposit  of  10s   ug,  or  less  than  10"3  percent  of




the sample, will be examined).




    Further details  on the  use  of optical microscopy in source apportionment




studies can be found in Volume IV of this series (U.S. EPA, 1983b).








    2.3.5  Scanning Electron Microscopy




    Another  method  used  to  provide  particle-specific  information  is  the




scanning electron microscope (SEM).  An  automated  scanning electron microscope




(ASEM), which  produces  digitized particle images, can be used to overcome many




of  the problems  associated with individual  particle  analyses.   A  scanning




electron  microscope   combined   with   automated  image   analysis   and  X-ray




spectroscopy   (SAX),  also  known  as  computer  controlled  scanning  electron




microscopy  (CCSEM),  can  be  used  to  provide  simultaneous  measurement  of




individual particle size, sha'pe and elemental composition.




    CCSEM  combines  three analytical  tools  under  computer  control:    1)  the




scanning electron microscope, 2)  an energy  dispersive spectrometry  (EDS) x-ray




analyzer  and 3) a  digital  scan  generator  for  image processing (Casuccio, at




al., 1983).




    In  the CCSEM,  a  finely focused  electron  beam impinges upon the sample



surface.   The  interaction   of   the  electron  beam  with  the  sample  produces




secondary  and/or backscattered  electrons  that  are  used to create  a viewing




image,  while  the   x-ray emission is  monitored  to  determine  the  elemental



chemistry of the particles.




    The  automated  image analysis of  CCSEM  is  normally  conducted  in  the




backscattered  mode.   The backscattered  signal  is  sensitive  to  differences in




atomic number  and  is thus  suited to  the analysis  of  particles.   Solid-state
                                      -39-

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backscattered  electron  detectors  are  positioned  above  the  sample;  their




individual  signals  are  amplified  and  then  summed  to  produce  the  final




backscattered electron signal.




    The computer  compares the  image  intensity at each point  with a threshold




level.  This comparison is used to determine whether the  electron  beam is "on"




a particle  (above threshold)  or "off" a  particle  (below  threshold).   If the '




signal  is  below   the  threshold  level,  the  computer  selects  a  new  (x,y)




coordinate  and  directs the  beam in a  preset pattern of rotated  diagonals to




determine the dimensions  and  shape of the  detected feature.   The  pattern is




repeated twice, once  to locate the feature  centroid and  once to determine the




lengths of the diagonals.  For each feature,  the  maximum,  minimum, and average




diagonals are stored,  along with the centroid  location.   The  centroid is used




to prevent double counting.




    To  classify and distinguish  different particle types,  it is  essential to




determine  the  elements contained in  each  particle, along  with  the   relative




intensities  for  each  particle.   Once the  electron beam  is positioned on a




particle,  the x-ray spectrum is  collected.   All  elements heavier than  sodium




are  simultaneously detected.  The computer's classification routine identifies



the  most  significant  peak(s)  and  assigns  each  particle  to  the  group  of




particle  types  having  the same  major  elemental  constituent(s).   The  relative




intensities  of  the major  and  minor elements in the spectrum  are  then used to




assign  each particle  to  a  specific particle type within the group.   Particle




types  (e.g., spherical  iron and  cenospheres)  may  also  be  classified by the




aspect  ratio  or  shape  factor.   The  absence  of  elemental peaks  or  a low




peak-to-background signal  causes the  particle  to  be  classified  as carbon.




Particles  found  on  ambient filters are  compared to  those  on source  emission




filters (preferably collected within  the  study area)  to identify  contributing




sources and determine  source contributions.






                                       -40-

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    One advantage of  this technique  is  the ability  to rapidly  analyze large




numbers of  particles,  thus overcoming the  statistical  limitations inherent in




optical microscopic methods.   Because each particle  analysis requires  two to




five  seconds,   1000-2500   particles  may  be  examined  in   a  two-hour  period.




(Although  this  is  a  larger  number  of  particles than  is  usually  analyzed




optically,  it  is on the  order  of 0.001  percent of the  deposit on  a filter




sample  and may  not be  statistically  representative of  the entire  sample.)




This method can analyze  particles from  any  filter  medium  if   particles  are




removed prior to  insertion into the microscope.   Care  must be taken to ensure




that the  removed  particles are representative  of the original  sample  (Kelly,




et al., 1980).    Nuclepore or Teflon filter media are usually required for the




in situ examination of particles.   However, in situ  analysis requires lightly




loaded filters, which may not be practical in some instances.




    Further discussion of this technique can be  found  in  Volumes I and  IV of




this series (U.S. EPA, 1981a; 1983b) and in Johnson, et al.,  (1983).








    2.3.6  X-Ray Diffraction




    The x-ray  diffraction  (XRD)  technique is  also  a method used  to provide




particle  information.   The method depends upon  the  wave  character of x-rays




and  the  regular  spacing  of  planes  in  a  crystal.   X-rays  impinging  on  the



crystal   are  diffracted   in  a  manner  that   is  unique  to  that  crystalline




structure.   The  diffraction  "fingerprint"  obtained  can  be  compared  to  a




library of data  (e.g.,  American  Society  of  Testing Materials,  1955) and the




structure  identified.  Various automated cameras  and devices  are  now in use to




accelerate  this process.




    This  technique  is specifically utilized to  identify the crystalline phases




present in a sample:   e.g.,  quartz, calcite,  dolomite,  halite,   lead ammonium
                                      -41-

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sulfate.  It  can provide  a  direct identification of such  sources  as pavement




minerals,  soil  minerals,  ores,  pigment,  cement,  metal  oxides,  asbestos,




abrasives, sulfates and  nitrates,  and indirect identification of  road and sea




salt.  Sometimes it is the only method available for determining  which of the




possible polymorphic forms of  a substance are present:   for example, carbon in




graphite  or  in  diamond.  Differentiation among various  oxides  such  as  FeO




Fez03,  and  FesO*, or  between materials  present  in   such mixtures   as  KBr




+  NaCl,  KC1   +  NaBr,   or  all  four,  is  easily  accomplished  with  x-ray




diffraction,  whereas  chemical   analysis  would show only the ions  present and




not  the actual  state  of combination.   XRD  can also identify  the presence of




various hydrates.




    XRD  is  basically a qualitative  analysis  method,  although  it  is  also




adaptable  to   quantitative  applications   since   the   intensities   of   the




diffraction  peaks of  a.  given  compound  in a  mixture  are proportional  to the




fraction  of  the material  in the mixture.   However,  direct comparison of the




intensity  of  a diffraction peak in  the pattern  obtained from  a mixture is




difficult.   Corrections  are   frequently  necessary  for  the  differences  in




absorption coefficients  between the compound being determined and the matrix.



     The method is  applicable to most filter media and no sample preparation is



necessary.   A  loading of  at   least  200 ]jg/m3 on  the  filter  is  optimum, but




not  necessary.




    "Further  information on  this technique may  be  found  in Willard,  et al.,




 (1974); Kuwana,  (1980);  U.S. EPA,  (1981a,  1983b); and Johnson,  et al.,  (1983).








     2.3.7 Preliminary or Qualitative  Receptor Models




     The foregoing subsections describe  some  sophisticated  techniques that can




 provide quantitative  estimates of  source attribution.   Application of  those
                                       -42-

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techniques  requires  that  the  user  have  either  specialized  equipment  and

training  or  a  significant  understanding  of  mathematical  and  statistical

manipulation  of  data.   The  methods  described in  this  subsection  require

spatial  and/or  temporal  correlation  of  aerometric  data  plus  a  moderate

understanding of statistics  and  may be used to supplement the results of other

receptor  modeling  or may  be used  to  draw inferences  from available  data on

categories  of  sources  contributing  to  measured  particulate matter  levels.

These methods use historical data for particulate matter,  collected using both

standard  high volume  (hi-vol) and size selective  air  samplers,  together with

local   meteorological   data   to   establish   background   levels,   trends,

interrelationships    between   station    values,   geographical    and   wind

direction-stratified  patterns,  and   relative   influence  of  non-traditional

sources.   It  can   be assumed  that  many  of  these  analyses  will  have  been

completed  prior to conducting more complex  receptor  modeling simply  because

they represent  a means of developing common understanding of the receptor data

and their  interrelationships.

    These  qualitative receptor modeling techniques  include the following:


       Background Concentration Determinations
       Historical Trends
       Frequency Distributions
       Tests  for Lognormality
       Monthly Variations
       Weekday/Weekend Analysis
       Wet Day/Dry Day Analysis
       Episode Day Analysis
       Spatial Mapping
       Correlation Coefficients
       Time Series Analysis
       Wind Trajectories and Pollution Roses


Each of  these are  described in the following paragraphs.  Further  details on

these  methods and  their interrelationships as source apportionment methods can
                                      -43-

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be  found in  Brookman and Yocom  (1980), Throgmorton  and Axetell  (1978),  and




U.S. EPA (1983d).








    2.3.7.1  Background Component Determinations




    For  purposes   of  developing  a control  strategy  for particulate  matter,




background concentrations must be  taken into  consideration.   The  method that




federal  regulations  (Section 51.13c)  specify  for estimating  background is to




use a concentration measured at a non-urban  site  that is in or  near the study




area  and is  unaffected by  nearby emission sources.   This   concentration is




assumed  to  be composed  of  material that  is transported  into the  study area




from  external  sources  over  which the area (i.e., the local control agency) has




no  control,  plus  material  generated  within the  study area  from  natural  and




agricultural  sources.   Unfortunately,  an ideal,  unaffected,  non-urban site in




the area of  study does  not  always  exist.   As  an alternative,  the background




particulate   matter   level   can   be  established  by  developing  a  composite




particulate  matter rose where data gathered  at  several monitoring sites are




averaged based on the  frequency  of  winds  coming  from  selected  directional




sectors, as  described below.



    To  remove the influence  of  the study  area  sources  on particulate  matter




levels within the  study  area, only data  collected at selected monitoring sites




located  at  the far edges of  the  study area, during periods when  the sites are




upwind  of the study  area  sources,  are  chosen for  analysis.   The  particulate




matter  concentrations at these  sites  are then  screened  for  all  sampling  days




with  a wind persistence factor  (Heidorn, 1978)  above a  selected  value  (e.g..
                                       -44-

-------
>0.71*).  These  daily concentrations  are  then classified  by wind  direction

sector and the  sector average of each data set is calculated for each site.  A

composite particulate  matter  rose is constructed utilizing  the wind  direction

sector-average  concentration  values from  the  selected  sites.  To  determine a

weighted average  background  level,  the  percent of  time the  wind blows  from

each  directional  sector  is  used.   The average  particulate matter  level for

each  directional  sector  is  multiplied  by  the frequency  of wind  from  that

sector and the results are summed in order to give the weighted average.

    The  weighted  values obtained are  usually  composed  of  particulate  matter

from  natural  and  agricultural  sources,  transported  secondary  particulate

matter   and   locally-generated  particulate  matter   from  such   sources  as

residential  heating,  vehicle  exhaust,  reentrained road  dust,  tire  rubber, and

vegetative burning.   In most instances,  the influence  of  the  latter sources

will  be relatively minor.   This  background  particulate  matter composition can

be further defined  by analysis of  the material collected on  samples  selected

to represent background conditions.

    Particle  size-fractionation  analyses  can  be  used  to  help  differentiate

between  transported  particles  (usually  in the  fine fractions)  and  locally-

generated particles  (usually  in  the coarse fractions).   Chemical  composition

analyses  can be  used to  differentiate  between particle  types and  thus  help

define  their  origins.   In  this manner, a' background particulate  matter  level

for   the study  area  can   be   established.   In  subsequent  analyses,  this

background level can be applied uniformly to data at  all sampling  sites within

the study area.
*Wind  persistence  factor  is  defined as the ratio of  the  vector averaged wind
to the average wind speed over the 24 hour sampling period.   A  factor near 1.0
indicates a  wind that blows consistently from  one  direction during the entire
sampling period.   A persistence factor >0.71 is  equivalent  to  an  hourly wind
direction deviation of 45°.

                                      -45-

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    2.3.7.2  Historical Trends

    Using  the  historical particulate  matter data, the  yearly arithmetic  and

geometric means are  calculated for each monitoring site.  These means are then

plotted as a continuous function of year for each station  in  order to identify

the  occurence  of  sudden changes  at  that particular  station.  It  is usually

helpful to   subtract the study area background  level  from the annual  mean at

each  station before  plotting or  else  to plot  the  background level  for each

year alongside the  monitoring site means.   This will  serve  to  either factor

out  or allow  for  an  evaluation  of the  effect  of year-to-year  variations in

meteorological conditions  (e.g.,  precipitation)  on the  sampling  days.   This

analysis technique can provide the following types of information.


     •  A  large change in the yearly particulate matter levels at only one
       site  can  indicate a local  source, such as  a construction project,
       starting  up  or shutting  down.   It could also be  indicative of a
       siting change.

     •  A  large change in the yearly particulate matter  levels at several
       "sites   in  a  large  geographical  region  can  indicate  a  major
       particulate   matter   source  starting  up  or  shutting   down  or
       undergoing a  major change  in operations.

     •  Gradual  changes  in  the  yearly particulate  matter  levels  at a
       particular site or several sites  can  indicate  the effectiveness of
       implemented   control  measures   or  the gradual  deterioration  of a
       control program.



     2.3.7.3  Frequency Distributions

    "Analysis of  the  frequency  distribution of the  ambient data  will often

 provide  insight into the mix  of contributing  sources.   A common  methodology

 involves  grouping  the data  into  concentration  bins  which  are  then  displayed

 graphically as  histograms.   If  the distribution  is  bi-modal or shows  extreme

 values (outliers)  of  much  larger concentration  than  the mass of  data, then  a

 directionally  dependent  effect  on  that monitor,  or intermittent,  infrequent

 source or other  similar  causes for the anomolous values  may be suspected.
                                       -46-

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    2.3.7.4  Tests for Loqnormality

    The  presence  of predominant  local  sources  can  often  be  confirmed  by

testing the  ambient  concentration  data for lognormality.   This  can be done by

applying  statistical tests  (e.g.,  Kolmogorov-Smirnov)  to  the  data  or  by

plotting  the  data  (Larsen,  1971).    In  the  latter case,  the  percentage  of

measurements  greater than  a selected  particulate-  matter  concentration  is

plotted  as   a  function   of  the  logarithm   of  that   particulate  matter

concentration.   If  the  resulting  curve  is  nearly  a  straight  line,  the

observations  are  lognormally distributed and  the  site  is likely  subject  to

large-scale  or general  influences  (i.e.,  many sources).  If  there is  a  major

local influence, such as  a nearby stack or a strong area source in a specific

direction with respect  to  the sampling site, then  the  data will  most likely

either not  exhibit  lognormality or  will  deviate from it at the  plot extremes

(Larsen, 1971).




    2.3.7.5  Monthly Variations

    Several  years  of particulate  matter  concentration  data  are  averaged  by

month and plotted  to show  the monthly and seasonal  variations that  exist  at

each of  the sites.  Corresponding plots  of  background concentrations can  be

used to show the effects of  changing meteorological  conditions.   An abnormally

high winter  average  can be an indication  of heavy traffic influence due to the

combination  of longer morning inversion periods, cars idling  while  cold,  road
       t
sanding/salting  operations  and  increased space heating,  especially  by  wood

stoves.   A  high  summer  level can  be  an  indication of  dry  surface  soil  in

conjunction  with  agricultural  activity   or  the  increased  use  of  school

playgrounds.   High  summer  and  fall  concentrations may  also  be  caused  by

secondary aerosols,  construction activities,  pollen, leaf  burning,  etc.   This

can be verified by chemical analysis.



                                      -47-

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    A variation of  this analysis can  be performed  where the  monthly average




plots are  grouped  for stations  that  are  similar  in character  or  in close




proximity.   This  helps  to determine  whether  these  groups  of  stations  are




influenced by  regional-scale,  urban-scale or  neighborhood-scale  sources.   Two




stations in  an urban  area might exhibit  similar seasonal particulate matter




patterns,  indicating that  an  urban-  or  regional-scale  source  is  the  major




contributor.    On  the other hand,  one  station  might have  a higher overall




particulate matter concentration,  indicating  a  local-  or  neighborhood-scale




source influence.








    2.3.7.6  Weekday/Weekend Analysis




    During weekends,  driving is  typically  done in the middle  of  the day when




dispersion conditions are at  their best.   During  weekdays,  peak  driving  is




typically  done  in  the early  morning  (0630-0900  hours)  and late  afternoon




(1500-1800  hours)  when   dispersion  conditions  may  be  poor,  thus keeping




traffic-suspended   particulate   matter  in  the  vicinity  of   the   point  of




generation in  a  relatively undiluted  condition.   Weekday and  weekend traffic




volumes  also  differ considerably.   By  computing the arithmetic  averages for



weekday  and  weekend periods as  well as  Saturday and Sunday individually for



each  site, a  measure of the influence of traffic on ambient  particulate matter




levels  can be  obtained.   Most  industries operate on  a  7  day week,  but  if  a




source  does  operate on  a 5  day  week  or  has a  lengthy shutdown, then its




contribution  may also  be  estimated from  this type of  time  series  averaging




analysis.  Other  sources with a  weekend/weekday dependence could confound this




analysis.   The analysis   may  be enhanced  if  weekdays/weekends   with  similar




meteorological conditions  are  compared,  but  additional  work is   required to




stratify the particulate matter  data by  meteorology.
                                       -48-

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    2.3.7.7  Wet Day/Dry Day Analysis




    It may be assumed  that  on days  with sufficient  snow cover,  with greater




than 0.5 centimeters of  precipitation,  or following days with greater than 0.5




centimeters  of  precipitation,  the  principal  contributions  to  particulate




matter  levels  are  traditional  sources, home heating,  vehicle  exhaust,  and




material transported from outside  the  study area.  The  rain  and snow suppress




the  majority of  the  local fugitive  and  reentrained dust.   These  days  are




defined as "wet"  days  and all other days  as  "dry" days.   The meteorological




data for  the study period  are  examined and  the particulate  matter levels at




each  site  on  wet  days  are  then  averaged  and  compared  to  the  average




particulate  matter levels  on  the  dry  days.   The differences  give a  first




approximation   of  the   reentrained  dust  and   local  fugitive   emissions




contributions  at  each of  the  sampling stations.    In an  extension of  this




analysis,  the  particulate  matter  levels  on  days  with snow cover  can  be




averaged versus days without  snow cover.  Such an analysis is often helpful in




approximating the effect  of  total  control of  windblown  dust  from  sources such




as  inactive  storage piles.   When conducting these analyses,  care must be taken




to  consider  the  effects  of winter  sanding and salting  in  those areas  where




this is practiced.  Results may be misleading  in such instances.








    2.3.7.8  Episode Day Analysis




    Days  are  selected  on  which   higher   than typical particulate  matter




concentrations  are  recorded throughout  an  area.   The  meteorological data are




examined  to  determine  the  possible   influence   of  inversions,  stagnation




conditions,  days  since last significant precipitation event, etc.   Large-scale




sources, most likely outside  the study  area  (i.e.,  long-range transport), are




possible  reasons  for   such  regional-scale emission  events.   Examples might be




dust storms,  forest fires, volcanos, etc.






                                      -49-

-------
    2.3.7.9  Spatial Mapping




    In this method,  the  particulate matter data obtained on all sampling days,




or only those  days  when  the wind persistence  factor (the ratio of  the vector




averaged  wind  to  the average  wind  speed)  is above  a selected  value (e.g.,




>0.71),  are   sorted  by  wind  direction  category   (compass   sector).    The




particulate matter  concentrations for  each  sector are averaged for each site




based on  the  number  of  observations and  the  averages are  then used  to  form




maps representing particulate  matter concentrations associated with winds from




each of the compass directions.  If sampling is conducted at  a  number of sites




in  the  study  area,  these  maps may help identify  the  location  of contributing




sources, based on  the sites  and wind  directions  associated with  the highest




average  concentrations.    Such  maps  may  be  particularly  useful  for  PMio




studies  since  the   spatial  variability  of PMio  is  less  than that  of  TSP.




However,   in   most   urban  situations  the  maps  may  be  misleading  because




predominant, very  localized influences  can overwhelm  the  contributions  from




sources with more widespread impacts.








    2.3.7.10   Correlation Coefficients



    A  correlation  coefficient between  two variables  indicates a co-variation




of  the  individual  measurements of  those variables.   Many times a common cause




of  this  co-variation, owing to meteorological  or  emissions  variability can  be




inferred.    If   concentrations   between   sites   display   high   correlation




coefficients   (i.e.,   they  track  nearly  identically),  then   the   monitoring




stations   could  be  influenced  by  the  same  types  of sources or  changes  in




pollution dispersion.  This would  be the  case where  there  are  regional-scale




influences.
                                       -50-

-------
    Conversely,  low correlation coefficients  between sites could be  caused by

local influences.   An example would be  the  case where one monitor is located

adjacent to a steel mill while another monitor is near a highway interchange.



    2.3.7.11  Time Series Analysis

    The  time series  analysis  is  another  valuable  technique  for  obtaining

insight into source/receptor relationships.  In one  such  analysis,  the 24-hour

concentration measurements for all  the sites in the  study area can be plotted

versus  time  on  the same graph.   The  concentrations  will usually  vary  in a

similar manner.    Sites  and  periods  which do  not vary similarly are indicative

of events  that  occur  on a neighborhood  scale.   Time series plots can  also be

prepared to  compare changes  in particulate matter concentrations to changes in

meteorology (e.g. wind direction,  wind speed) and other parameters.



    2.3.7.12  Wind Trajectories and Pollution Roses

    Pollution roses,  which  depict the average particulate matter concentration

for  various  wind directions,  are constructed for  each  site  for  each of the

study years.  They  can  be based on concentration averages for eight or sixteen

compass points for all  sampling days  or only those  sampling  days  possessing a

pre-selected wind persistence factor.

    These  roses are  useful  in  associating  average pollutant  concentrations

with"  a  particular wind  direction or  directions.  They are capable of showing

the following types of influence from sources:


    •   Lack of  any  specific  directional  effect  of  sources on background
        stations.

    •   Diffuse influence of distant industrial complexes.
                                      -51-

-------
    •  Combination of diffuse  influence from  distant sources  and  nearby
       sources.

    •  Influence of nearby large sources.
    As an aid  in  performing the analysis, the  percent  of time the  wind blows

from a  particular direction  (e.g.,  persistence >0.71)  is  determined from the

available wind data.   This wind  frequency  can  then  be  combined with  the

pollution  rose   information  to  determine   the  particulate   matter  level

contribution from a particular  compass  sector.   The  value  of  such analyses

depends  on  the  representativeness of  the available  meteorological  data,  as

discussed in Section 3.3.   A good example of the use  of pollution roses and

wind trajectories is the work performed by Gordon  (1980).
                                       -52-

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3.0 AM EVALUATION OF EXISTING MODEL INPUT DATA




3.1 Overview



    The  application  of  either  a  source  or  receptor  model  requires  the




acquisition  of  input  data.   Generally  these input  data include  source data




relating to  emission strengths and  characteristics,  meteorological  data,  and




ambient measurements  for  the pollutant(s) of concern.   Quite often, acquiring




input data  is the  most costly part of any model application.   However,  there




is  a  large amount  of existing data  available  for use  in model applications,




and often  the objectives  of a study  can  be met without the need  for further




measurement  programs.   Frequently, a  source  or receptor modeling application




can  be  designed  around  an  existing data  base.    It  is  useful   to  examine




existing data  to determine  if  further measurements are  needed to implement a




given application.   Review of  existing  data to determine  their  quality  and




validity is necessary before use of the data in any modeling application.




    The general types of data used by source and receptor models are shown in




Table  3-1.  Further  discussion of  these data  are  provided in the following




subsections.








3.2 Source Data




    Source  data have  generally been  compiled  in emission  inventories,  which



contain  a  listing  of all  recorded  sources  for  a  given area.   The  data




contained  in  emission inventories   can  vary  widely depending upon  who  has




compiled the inventory and the  purpose for which it was  compiled.   Thus  it is



advisable  to review the initial purpose  of an inventory before using it in a




given application.
                                      -53-

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    3.2.1  Emissions Inventories




    A basic source  of  emissions inventory information  is generally  the State




(or local) air  pollution agencies.   These agencies are usually responsible for




gathering  information  on  emission  sources  within  their  jurisdiction  and




compiling the information  in  an appropriate format.  Often these agencies will




gather and update  source information on  a  more or less continuous  basis but




will  generate  updated  inventories  at  fixed intervals,  perhaps  annually  or




biannually.  Thus it may be necessary to determine whether  the information in




a  compiled  inventory  is  the  most recent available.  Often  areas with special




problems, such  as areas  with a  nonattainment designation,  have  had special




attention made to the completeness and accuracy of their inventories.




    State and local  air pollution control agency  emissions  inventories may be




limited  to  point  sources in some  cases.   However,  information  on non-point




source emissions is sometimes available from  these  agencies.   Often during the




formulation of  SIPs,  information has been developed concerning area source or




aggregated small source emissions.  These are  sometimes  available  on a county,




town, or  gridded square basis.   Information  that  was  used in developing these




area  source  values, such  as  traffic  counts, vehicle  miles  travelled (VMT),




miles  of  paved  and  unpaved roads,  and population  densities  are  sometimes




available.   Aggregate   fuel   consumption  statistics are  often developed  for




various types of fuels during SIP development, and these may be broken down to



county or grid square values.




    There are  three reasons  for exercising caution when  using area source or




fugitive emissions inventories:   1) the data used  in SIP or  nonattainment plan




development  may have  been valid only for  the  time period when  the  SIP was




generated and may  need significant updating,  2}   the  emission  estimates  are
                                      -55-

-------
generally based on emission factors that are imprecise, and  3)  the inventories



usually  do not  contain all  of  the  area  sources  that  may be  affecting the



ambient  air  quality.   The  state-of-the-art in  emission  factors  for  fugitive



dust  sources  is  still  far  behind  that  for  point sources   and  estimated



emissions can be  incorrect.   Area source inventories  are  useful for obtaining



an overall picture  of the study area, but  they may not provide exact modeling



results.   This  is particularly  true  since  most area source  inventories only



compile  the major sources  (such as roads, home heating, parking  lots) and tend



to omit  many  others  (such  as industrial fugitive sources,  dirt  race tracks,



drive-in movies) which are potentially important.



    The U.S. SPA National Emissions Data System  (NEDS)  is  the  standard federal



emissions  inventory archive.  NEDS  contains information  on both point  source



and  area  source  emissions.   The point  source  data  in NEDS   are  generally



obtained  from  State  and   local  air  pollution  agency  files.   Area   source



emissions  are  generally developed on  a  county-by-county  basis  from aggregate



statistics  obtained  from  State  sources.    NEDS  does  not contain  the   source



emissions composition data used by receptor  models.



    In  situations where only a  single  large  source  is  under  study it  may  be



necessary  to develop  a  refined emissions inventory for the given  source.  Some



plants  have  had  comprehensive  inventories generated for  use  in permitting



applications  or litigation.   These are  especially  useful if  reentrained dust



and  fugitive emission  sources were considered  or  if  emissions were based  on



actual  operations rather than rated capacities  as is usually done  with State



 inventories.   Such in-plant  inventories may or  may not be available  for  use  in



a  given study.



    There  are also several  "specialized" inventories  which  may be of use in a



 source  or receptor modeling  study.  One  type  of  specialized  inventory  is  the
                                       -56-

-------
compilation  of surface  loadings and  silt  contents of  road  dust.   This  is




essentially  a subset  of a  general  area  source  or fugitive  emissions  source



inventory and is  typically  generated  for a  particular  industrial  facility.




The  information  on loadings  and silt  can  be used  with  published emission




factors to provide emission estimates for various roadway segments.




    Another  type  of  specialized inventory is a compilation of particle size or




composition  information.   This  information  is obtained  using  a variety  of




analytical  techniques  including  optical  and scanning   electron microscopy,




x-ray  diffraction,  x-ray fluorescence  and  instrumented  neutron  activation




analysis  (INAA).   Such information  is useful for  "fingerprinting" a  source so




that analyses  of  the material collected  on hi-vol  filters  can  be  related to




their point of generation.




    A  third  type  of  specialized  inventory  is   the  microinventory  which




typically presents  detailed  information on point and  area sources in the near




proximity  of  a  monitoring  station.   The  distances  suggested  for  including




sources  in  a microinventory  are a five mile radius for point sources and a one




mile radius  for area sources.  It is further  suggested  that  all sources within




a  one mile  radius  be included, but  from one to  three  miles  distance,  only




those sources greater  than or equal to 100 tons per  year  actual emissions need




to  be included  and  from three  to  five  miles  distance,  only  those sources



greater   than  or  equal  to  250   tons  per  year  need  to   be  included.




Microinventories  are  useful  for locating a local source, such as  a playground,




which may be affecting the  recorded levels  at  a  monitoring station  but which




would  not   show  up  in  an  area-wide  inventory.   Further  information  on




microinventories can be found in Pace  (1978).
                                      -57-

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    3.2.2  Data Quality




    The validity of any emissions inventory must be reviewed before  its use in




any source or  receptor  modeling application.  Validity relates not only to the




accuracy of  the actual  emission values or  source parameters  but  also  their




representativeness to the  application in question.  Emission  values are often




based on annual factors  such as fuel consumption,  total  production, etc.   The




actual  day-to-day operation of a  source  may vary  considerably  from  these




annual  average  values.   In  some  cases,  a  short-term   inventory  may  be




warranted.   In many instances,  ambient  data are collected  for  a study period




of  only weeks or  months rather  than a full  year.  The  actual  operation of




important  sources  during the  study period should  be  reviewed to determine if




the  inventory  data  accurately  reflect  those  operations  during  that  time




frame.   This  review should extend  to  fugitive  sources,  as  well  as  point




sources, to  determine  if fugitive generating activities, such as unloading or




conveying,  traffic,  and  storage  pile  maintenance  occurred  with  the  same




frequency as estimated in the inventory.




    As  discussed  earlier,  inventories  are  generally  considered valid  for a




particular  point  in time   and may  require  updating  for  a given   receptor



modeling  application.   This  may  involve  review of  air   pollution agency




permitting  files  for  inclusion  of new  sources,  reductions  due  to  emission




controls,  plant  shutdowns,  and operating  limitations.  Economic  conditions may




also' affect  emissions  inventory  validity  through  effects  on total  plant




production,  hours of  operation,  etc.   An attempt should  be made  to include




these  effects  in inventoried data.








     3.2.3  Source  Smission Compositions




     Although  few  such  data   are  currently   available,  size-segregated  and




chemically  resolved data   are   obtained  for  certain  specific   sources  by






                                       -58-

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analyzing  "grab"  samples collected  from  emission control  devices,  piles  of

fugitive materials or  in-stack  sampling.   For other sources, these composition

data  are   obtained   by  analyzing   samples  collected   using  sophisticated

ground-based  plume   sampling,   dilution  stack   sampling,   vehicle  emission

sampling or  airborne  plume sampling.   Technical  considerations  affecting the

use  of  these  data  include  the  compatibility   between ambient  and  source

sampling  periods, the  existence  of  unique  (i.e.,  tracer)  emissions,  the

temporal   variability   in  emission  compositions  and   the  similarities  in

composition  of  different source  emissions.   Further  discussion  of  source

sampling and emission composition analysis techniques is  contained in Gordon,

et al., (1983).

    One of  the  biggest impediments to receptor modeling has been the  lack of a

systemized  library of  source  compositions.  EPA  is  developing such  a library

(Gordon,   et   al.,   1983;  U.S.  EPA,  1984).   The  prerequisites  of  source

compositions for use in mass balance calculations are the following:


    •   Chemical  species  and  particle size  fractions  should be  the  same
        as those commonly measured at the  receptor.

    •   Sampling  conditions   should  be  such  that the composition  at the
        source  is similar to  that received  at   the  receptor.    This may
        require   dilution stack   sampling  or  airborne  sampling.   For
        certain  substances which  do not change state or  composition  with
        temperature, less expensive grab sampling is adequate.

    •   Operating  conditions of  the  source must  be thoroughly defined
        since  these  may  affect   the   emissions  compositions.    Source
        configuration,  throughput,  fuel  composition,  and  temperatures
        should all be documented.



    Very  few  of  the  source  tests  to  date  meet these  criteria.   The  most

commonly  used  compilations   of source  compositions  are  Watson   (1979)  and

Taback,  et  al.,  (1979).  Appendix B  contains   a  list  of  sources  for which
                                      -59-

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chemical  characterizations  have   been  made  and  some  of   the   references
containing the data  from  those characterizations.  As mentioned  above,  a more
detailed library of  the chemical characteristics of source  emissions  is being
prepared (U.S. EPA, 1984).


3.3 Meteorological Data
                                          *
    Meteorological  data  are   an important  part  of  any source  or  receptor
modeling  study.    Meteorology  defines  the  transport  conditions under which
pollutants move from the source to the receptor, and provides  the link between
the two.  Meteorology  can have  important effects  other  than simple transport.
Dust suppression  due  to  rain, pollutant  buildup  due  to stagnation,  and wind
generation  of  fugitive  emissions  can  have  important  effects  on  ambient
pollutant concentrations.


    3.3.1  Data Quality
    A  large  set  of  previously  compiled  meteorological  data  is  available for
use   in   source   or   receptor  modeling   applications.    However,   since
meteorological  data can  be  highly variable  in space and  time,  the available
data must be evaluated for their  representativeness  to  the  given application.
The  physical  scale  of  the  problem  under  study  is   especially  important.
Microscale effects from fugitive sources  often reguire  on-site  data,  whereas
multi-state   transport  studies  can  use  routinely   gathered NWS  data.    If
source-receptor  relations are being examined,  the  extent  to which measured
data   reflect  conditions  at  both  the  source   and  the   sampler  should   be
evaluated, particularly in regard  to the  sampling height and  the  mean  height
of  transport.   In larger urban  areas,  multiple meteorological  data measurement
locations are usually available and  spatial  averaging may be more appropriate
than the values  from any  single  station.

                                      -60-

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    The  accuracy  and  precision of  meteorological  instrumentation should  be




evaluated before  use  of the  data  in  a  modeling  study.   EPA  has  published




specifications for meteorological  instrumentation used for  on-site prevention




of  significant deterioration   (PSD)  monitoring  purposes  (U.S.  EPA,  1980b).




Precision is usually  a function of the instrument  itself and can  be  obtained




from manufacturers'  specifications.   However,  the  recording and reduction of




measurements  may   affect  the  precision  of   the   actual  data  produced.




Meteorological  instrument accuracy  is generally dependent  upon  the  quality




control/assurance (QA/QC) procedures  used by the operator.   The  NWS,  which is




responsible  for gathering  most airport  meteorological  data,  as  well  as the




EPA,  have  developed  comprehensive  QA/QC  procedures  for  collecting  field




meteorological  data  (U.S.  EPA,   1982b).   Data  collected  by  other  agencies




should have  been subject to similar or otherwise acceptable procedures.  Data




QA/QC  procedures   should  include  an  effective  procedure  for  removal  or




correction of any erroneous values.








    3.3.2  Data Sources




    The  largest  source  of  meteorological  data  available  for  source  and




receptor modeling applications  is  that data recorded  at airports by  NWS and




Federal  Aviation   Administration   (FAA)   observers.   These  data  have  been



archived at  the National Climatic Data  Center  (NCDC) in  both  hard copy and




computer compatible  forms.   NWS data are  produced  by observations made at a




once per hour  interval.  Generally the  observer attempts to  record  a value



which  is  an average  over the  several  minutes previous  to the  observation




time.  Thus,  since  NWS values  are  not  hourly  averages and  may  not  represent




conditions over the  full hour,  care should be  taken  in using  these  data in




combination  with hourly average ambient concentrations.  Because NWS  data are
                                      -61-

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collected, reduced and  reported according  to  standardized QA/QC  procedures a




generally high  level  of confidence can be  placed  in their accuracy.  The MCDC




archiving  facilities  also  allow  generation  of  large  volumes  of  data  in  a




variety of formats not generally available from other sources.




    The U.S. EPA,  as  well as State and  local  air pollution  control agencies,




have often  maintained meteorological  monitoring networks  in combination with




their pollutant monitoring  networks.   Generally the  meteorological monitoring




is performed at the  same location as  a  pollutant  sampler.  The collocation of




meteorological  and pollutant sampling  instruments can  provide more  accurate




estimates  of  near  field  transport  conditions  compared  to  airport  data.




Pollutant  monitoring-based  networks generally  have  several  sites  in a  given




region  so that  overall  wind. patterns  can be  deduced.    Like  the  NWS  data,




monitoring  network   data  are   collected  and   reduced   under   standardized




procedures so a high level of confidence can be placed in their validity.




    The  EPA  and State  agencies  have  from  time  to  time  established special




monitoring   networks   during   various  air  pollution   investigations.    The




meteorological  data  from these  studies are  sometimes  archived  at  the  EPA's




National  Aerometric  Data Bank  (NADB).  Many of  these  programs were developed



to  examine  the  effects of a single  large  source  and thus give  finer spatial




scales.    Private  companies,   especially  electric  utilities,   have   often




supported similar programs, and these data  are  sometimes archived  at  State




agencies.   Data validity from  these types of  programs  should be  evaluated by




examining calibration procedures  and results if they are available.








    3.3.3 Meteorological Variables




    3.3.3.1  Wind  Speed and Direction.




    Wind  speed  and  direction   are probably the  most  critical meteorological




parameters  for  source  and  receptor  modeling  applications  since  they  define






                                       -62-

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pollutant transport conditions.   The  most critical factor to be evaluated when




using available wind  data is their spatial  scale  of representativeness.  Wind




speed and direction can change markedly from place to place, especially in the




vertical or in areas with varied topography.  Airport  data  are  generally taken




in  large open  areas  that  are often  elevated  above  the  surrounding terrain.




These data may  not represent conditions at  industrial sites in  river valleys




where the  topography induces  channeling and wind  speeds  are generally lower.




However, airport data may be more representative of  the  general  wind flow over




an urban area  than is a monitoring site tower located near an individual large




source.    Many  other  airports  located  near  coastlines  are  influenced  by




seabreezes  which  do  not  affect  inland  industrial  sources  or  urban  areas.




Generally  the   spatial  scale   of   representativeness  increases   with  the




measurement  height.   Most  airport  data are  measured  at 20  feet above ground




and  monitoring  network  data  are  often  measured  at  10  meters   (33  feet).




However, airport  data  may  be  more  indicative  of  mean  wind conditions  due to




the  open siting requirements  of airports.   A few monitoring  locations  have




taller  towers  with  instruments  at  multiple  levels.    These  measurements can




sometimes be used  to  determine wind flow affecting  tall stack  sources as well




as  wind  direction in   the immediate  vicinity  of the sampler.   Rawinsonde




balloon  measurements  can  be  used  for  determining  long-range   transport  or



regional conditions.  Wind  measurements made in areas of pronounced topography




should  be  evaluated  for the  effects  of  phenomena such  as downslope  flows,




obstacle  steering of winds,  and increased  calms  due  to flow  shielding and




stable stratification.  These  effects may mask the  true  transport pattern from




a  source,  especially if it is  located in  a  topographic  regime separate from




the measurement site.




    As  mentioned  earlier,  airport observations are actual  short-term averages




made  on a  once  per  hour  basis, rather  than  hourly  averages.    This  is  a






                                      -63-

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critical factor for wind speed and direction measurements  since  the conditions




at the  time  of the observation can easily be anomalous when compared to hourly




average conditions.  Thus pollutant monitoring network data,  which are usually




generated as hourly  averages,  would give a more  faithful  picture of transport




conditions.  Airport wind  direction observations are  recorded to  the nearest




ten  degree  value  while  aerometric  monitors  can  record  to  single  degree
                                                                              •



values.   Wind  directions  recorded  to  the  nearest  single  degree  may  be




advantageous when  assessing near  field transport  from  closely spaced sources




in an  industrial  complex.   Aerometric  wind measurements  are also generally




made with lighter and more sensitive instrumentation than airport measurements.








    3.3.3.2  Temperature, Precipitation, and Humidity




    Although not as  important as wind speed and  direction,  these  variables can




affect  the  generation  of  fugitive  emissions,  ambient  particulate  matter




characteristics,  and  deposition  patterns.   Temperature,  precipitation,  and




humidity  generally do not  display the  same spatial  variability  as wind speed




and  direction,  thus  evaluation  of  spatial  representativeness   is  not  as




critical.   Often existing  airport data are sufficient for use  in a source or



receptor  modeling   analysis.   These  variables  are  often  not  measured  at




aerometric  networks.   Temperature and  humidity measurements  made  on towers



should be  reviewed if  ground based  fugitive  sources  are  being  modeled to




determine  if  the  values  reflect actual  surface  conditions.   In  some cases




where  a  single precipitation  measurement  is  used  for  a  large  area,   some




indication of  the rainfall "spottiness" may be  necessary to accurately assess




dust suppression abilities.
                                       -54-

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    3.3.3.3  Mixing Height




    The concept of  mixing height is widely  used in source  models and  can be




utilized in  some  receptor  modeling analyses as well.   Generally,  the  mixing




height is considered to be the height at which the atmospheric  lapse rate  (the




rate of change  in temperature with height) suppresses further upward mixing of




pollutants.  The  upward  mixing of pollutants may be  suppressed when  the  rate




of temperature  decrease  with height is less than that at lower heights or when




the  temperature   increases  with  height   (producing  an   inversion).    The




height/presence of  such  a  lapse  rate  can only  be deduced  through vertical




atmospheric soundings.   The only widely available source of such data  is NWS




twice  per  day  rawinsonde  measurements,  which are  archived at  NCDC,  however,




some data may be available from utilities,  industries,  and  regulatory or smoke




management agencies  (e.g.,  the U.S. Forest Service).  In non-mountainous areas




use  of data  from  the  nearest  NWS  sounding  station  is   generally  adequate




because of the  broad spatial scale of  the  data.  Capping inversions sometimes




occur  in valley locations which may not  appear  in the  airport  based sounding




measurements.




    The ideal method of developing mixing heights from  balloon  data is through




individual  inspection  of  each  sounding.   This  may  be   impractical   for  a




long-term  application,  however, and  the modeler must  rely on  mixing heights



developed  from  analysis of  sounding data by standard  algorithms, usually the



Holzworth procedure (1972).  Some review should  be made  of  the  algorithm being




used  to determine  if  it  is  accurately assessing  the mixing  heights  at the



location under study.
                                      -65-

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    3.3.3.4  Stability Classes and Dispersion Coefficients




    Stability  classes  and dispersion coefficients are widely used to quantify




atmospheric dispersion processes and  are central  to the  formulation  of  the




Gaussian  source  models  discussed  in  Section  2,2.   Stability classes  and




dispersion  coefficients  are  generated  from  other   meteorological  variables.




Thus, their degree  of  representativeness and  validity is  dependent  upon those




measurements.   A  variety of stability classification schemes  can be generated




from  different types  of meteorological measurements.   The  lack  of  a  certain




measurement will  restrict the user to schemes  based  on  those measurements that




are  available.   The  Turner  method (1970)  develops  stability classifications




from  widely available  airport  data.  Other classification  schemes  requiring




measurement  of  temperature  differences  (AT/AZ)  and  the  standard deviation




of  horizontal  or  vertical  wind  directions   (a
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    Particulate  matter  nonattainment   problems  are  identified  using  data




obtained from networks  of  samplers, such as  hi-vols  operated for  the purpose




of determining compliance  with NAAQS.   Thus, a  basic requirement is to have a




data base  of several  years for  a  number of  fixed stations  representing not




only the  nonattainment area  itself but adjoining  areas  including  one or more




"background"  stations.   Data  from dichotomous  samplers  or other types  of




size-selective  samplers,   when  they are  available,  can  also   be  especially




useful since  sampling  results can  be  used  directly  to  infer source category




contributions  based on  size  ranges (e.g.,  large particles  tend  to  be from




nearby sources of fugitive dust and small particles tend  to be from combustion




sources, sulfates or distant sources).




    Since  trend  analysis  is an important technique to use on hi-vol  data,  it




is recommended that at least three years of data with a sampling frequency of




at  least  once  every  6  days  be available  for  each sampling  station  to  be




considered  in a  trend  analysis.   It will  facilitate  the analysis  if  these




data,  together  with  appropriate   meteorological  data,   are  archived   on  a




computerized  data  base  and  made accessible   to manipulation  by  suitable




programs.




    Chemical  analyses  of  the   particles  collected  in  ambient samples are




extremely  useful in source apportionment studies.   As  pointed out elsewhere in



this  document,  chemical  and  microscopic   (optical  and  scanning  electron)




examinations  of   selected  samples  provide  further   insight   into  sources




contributing   to  the  measured    levels,    especially   when  correlated  with



meteorological variables.








    3.4.1  Data Quality




    No ambient sampling methodology is perfect  for depicting  the actual nature




and distribution of particulata  matter  in  the  atmosphere.   Important factors






                                      -67-

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affecting the validity of  particulate matter  data include  sampling  location,




instrumentation,  sampling  schedule,  filter  material and  the methods  used to




prepare the sample for analysis (U.S.  EPA, 1983b; Gordon, et al., 1983).




    The  siting  of  samplers  is  especially  important  in  source apportionment




work.  Samplers shielded by  overhanging  trees or  nearby buildings  can produce




non-representative  results.   Samplers located  near  busy  road  intersections,




while  typical  of locations  affected by  a  strong nearby  source  of  fugitive




emissions,  will be  insensitive to  the   contributions   to  that   location  from




other  types  of  sources.    Guidelines  developed  by  EPA  for  National  Air




Monitoring  Stations  (MAMS) and State and Local Air Monitoring Stations (SLAMS)




can  be used to  evaluate  existing  sites  to  determine  if they meet acceptable




standards for representative ambient sampling (U.S. EPA, 1979b).




     Particulate matter sampling is usually performed using  hi-vols,  sometimes




with cascade impactors or size-selective inlets  attached,  or with dichotomous




samplers.   Problems  with  the standard hi-vol include an inability to separate




particles   by   size  and  imprecise  collection  efficiencies, as  affected by




particle  size  and wind speed  and direction.   The cascade  impactor  and size-




selective   inlet  collect  material  by  particle  size  but  retain the  other



problems  of the hi-vol except  that sampling with the  size-selective  inlet is




relatively   unaffected  by   wind  speed  and  direction.    Dichotomous  samplers




divide  ambient particles  into a  fine and a coarse  fraction but dichotomous



sampler -collection  efficiencies are affected by wind speed  and  humidity (John,




et  al.,  1983).




     Most hi-vol sampling is conducted on  an every sixth day sampling  schedule




and produces samples collected over  a 24-hour  period.   This sampling  schedule




provides representative  samples  for  a year  but obviously omits sampling  on  5




out of every 6  days.   The  24-hour  sampling  period precludes the  measurement of
                                       -68-

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diurnal or other similar variations in particulata matter  concentrations.   The




amount of particulate  matter  collected during a 24-hour sampling period may be




too much  or too  little for certain  types of  constituent analyses.   Another




consideration  is  the   compatibility  between  periods  of   ambient  and  source




sampling.




    Most  hi-vol  particulate  matter  samples  are  collected on  glass  fiber




filters.  On the  whole, such filters are  useful  for total particulate  matter




sampling  but  are  less suited  for particulate  matter constituent  analyses.




Difficulties with glass fiber  filters include particle  penetration  into  the




filter  and  trace  element  contamination.   In addition, the particles  on glass




fiber  filters  tend to  undergo  chemical  reactions  with each  other,   with  the




filter  and  with  gases  in  the  air.   These chemical  reactions usually involve




acid  aerosols   and acid gases.   This  problem,   called  artifact  formation,




results  in  erroneous  reported  concentrations, primarily  for the  sulfate  and




nitrate particulate matter  fractions.   Various types  of membrane  filters  are




also used to sample particulate matter.  Membrane filters overcome many of the




problems  associated with glass  fiber  filters  and  are the  best  filters  for




microscopic  analyses,  but  samples  have  to  be  treated  carefully  because




membrane filters are brittle and particles readily fall off them.




    Once  collected,   the   particles  may  be  analyzed   to   determine  their



composition.   In  some   cases  this  can be  done  on the  filter, but  in others,




particles must be removed  and inserted into an instrument for examination.  Of




concern are particles  embedded  in the filter and  particles on top interfering




with the analysis of particles underneath.
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    3.4.2  Data Sources




    In the United  States  most ambient particulate matter  data are gathered by




federal, State, and  local air quality  regulatory agencies.   Monitoring sites




are distributed throughout  the nation to monitor compliance  with NAAQS.  Most




of these data are  archived  using the Storage and Retrieval  of Aerometric Data




(SAJROAD) system  in Research  Triangle Park, North  Carolina  (U.S.  EPA,  1971).




Large amounts of additional data are collected by utilities  and industries at




and near  their facilities.   The bulk of these data  have  been collected using




hi-vol  samplers,  glass  fiber  filters  and  an  every   sixth  day  sampling




schedule.  For  many years  EPA has  been  compiling  particulate matter chemical




composition  data  from  designated  National  Air Surveillance Network  (NASN)




stations.  Such  stations are  generally a subset of  the  SAROAD sites operated




by State and local agencies.  The samples are collected on glass fiber  filters




using  hi-vols  operated on  an every twelfth day sampling schedule.   Chemical




composition  data  are  obtained  using  atomic  absorption and  wet  chemistry




methods.   EPA  has also been  compiling particle  size and chemical composition




data from an Inhalable  Particulate Network  (IPN) of  sampling sites operated in




major  urban  areas   (Watson,  et  al.,  1981).    Additional  comprehensive  air



quality  data are  available  for St.  Louis, Missouri  from  the  Regional  Air




Pollution  Study  (RAPS)  conducted  during   the  mid-1970s  (Strothmann,  1979).



Such  potential  sources  of  ambient  data  should be  considered before  any new




sampling is conducted.
                                       -70-

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4.0 COMPOSITE SOURCE/RECEPTOR MODEL APPLICATION PROTOCOLS




    There are many  source  and receptor models available for use in qualitative




and  quantitative  determinations  of  the  sources  responsible  for  measured




ambient   particulate   matter  concentrations.    As  discussed   earlier,   the




limitations and  underlying  assumptions of  each model  are  such that  all  fall




short  of  a  perfect  representation  of  reality.   Therefore,  when  seeking




solutions to air quality problems, it is highly advisable to use  more than one




model.   A  higher degree  of confidence  can  be  obtained  if  several  models,




operating independently, produce the same results.








4.1 Considerations in Method Selection




    This  document cannot describe  all of the  possible combinations of source




and/or  receptor  models that  can be  used  to  apportion  the  contributions  of




sources  to  ambient  air  quality.   There  are  five  factors  that  must  be




considered before beginning the source apportionment process.  These are:




    •  the time frame of the problem;




    •  the existing data base;




    •  the nature of the problem;




    •  the applicability of complementary methods; and




    •  the resource availability



    Each of  these factors  is discussed below as a preface to the discussion of




a three  level  approach to  source apportionment.    Many of the  particulars  of




each factor are discussed in more detail in other sections of this document.








    4.1.1  Time Frame of the Problem




    The selection of methods must begin  by a recognition of  the  time frame of




concern,  annual   versus  24-hour, which  depends  on the  existing air  quality




versus  the  corresponding  NAAQS.   An  annual  time  frame  offers  the  most

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flexibility  for  method  selection.   Some  methods  such  as  the  multivariate




models  (e.g.,  factor analysis, TTFA  and MLR)  and the dispersion models work




best using multiple  samples.   If  only selected  days require consideration in




order to develop a  control strategy,  such methods  as  chemical  mass balance or




microscopic analyses may be  preferred.   However, as described  in Section 4.4,




an  annual  time frame  study  may be performed by merging the analysis results




from carefully chosen individual samples.








    4.1.2  Data Base




    Both ambient and source  data  bases must  be  considered.   The compatibility




of  filter material  with  the  needed  chemical  analyses  is   important.   For




instance, the  concentrations  of certain materials, such as silicon and organic




carbon,  cannot generally  be  determined on. glass  fiber  filters because  of




interferences  from  the filter  material  and  binder (Pace,  1983).   The nature




and variability of  source  emissions may severely  limit  the use  of dispersion




models  for  short-term problems because of  the difficulty  of  reproducing a




reliable  24-hour  inventory.   Generally,  receptor  models  are  preferable  to




dispersion models for short-term retrospective analyses for this  reason.  This



is  reflected in Tables  4-1  and 4-2  which  suggest preferences  for  selecting




source  apportionment  methods  based  on  the time  frame  of  the  problem,   the




ambient  data base and the  filter media  (Pace,  1983).   The  availability of




source  mass  emissions  or  chemistry  data  may be limited by whether  it is




possible  to  test  the  source or to  predict  the  timing  or consistency of  its




operation.




    4.1.3  Nature of the Problem




    The  complexity  of  the   problem,   (that  is,  whether  it  involves   many




suspected  sources or a  single likely  source),  influences  the  selection of




methods.   In a simple situation,  some  of the  less quantitative or  screening






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                                   TABLE 4-1

           PREFERRED APPROACHES FOR SOURCE APPORTIONMENT (Pace, 1983)
                          Ambient Data Base Available
                                    TSP*
                                     PM
                                                                   i o
Time
Scale
of the
Nonattainment
Problem
                 Annual
                 24-hour
                            (a) applicable dispersion
                                model corroborated by
                                SEM or optical
                                microscopy
                            (b) applicable dispersion
                                model
(a)  applicable dispersion
    model corroborated by
    SEM or optical
    microscopy
                            (b) applicable dispersion
                                model
                             (a)  applicable disper-
                                 sion and receptor
                                 model
                             (b)  applicable disper-
                                 sion model

                             (c)  receptor methods
                                 (at least two)
(a)  receptor and
    applicable dis-
    person model

(b)  receptor methods
    (at least two)

(c)  applicable disper-
    sion model
Assumptions

*  1. TSP is collected on glass  fiber  filters,  other filter media  may be more
      suitable for receptor modeling.

   2. Short-term  emission  inventories  are  difficult  to obtain  because of the
      nature of the source.
                                      -73-

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                                   TABLE 4-2

                 APPROPRIATE FILTER MEDIA FOR USE WITH RECEPTOR
                           MODEL STUDIES (Pace, 1983)
    Laboratory
    Technique

Elemental Analysis
  (Mass Balance)
  (Factor Analysis)
                                           Filter Type
Glass
Fiber
Quartz
Fiber
Polycarbonate

      1
Fluorocarbon
Optical Microscopy
Automated SEM
Carbon
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
3
2
2
3
1.  Recommended
2.  Useful under some circumstances or to some analysts
3.  Not recommended
                                       -74-

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methods may be  adequate.   In such cases, combinations  of some of  the simpler




dispersion models, such  as the PT series, or PAL, with receptor models such as




optical microscopy, tracer methods,  or  spatial  or temporal  correlations, may




suffice.  Multiple sources may require the more refined dispersion models such




as MPTER, RAM or ISC along with chemical mass balance  or multivariate receptor




methods.



    The spatial  extent of the problem affects the size and  type  of  emissions




inventory needed.   If the problem is  largely  transport the applicability of




the available models may be limited.




    The  nature   and  chemistry  of  the  emissions  of  the suspected  sources is




important  for  several   reasons.   Some  sources  are   precursors  of   secondary




particulate  matter  such  as  sulfates..   Determining  the   sources   of   these




sulfates  generally requires  a  dispersion  model  that  accounts  for  chemical




transformations.   In  may  cases,  particularly   in the  eastern  United States,




regional scale models would be needed.  The chemistry of  the  emissions of each




source  or  source  category  must  be  sufficiently  different  to   enable the




chemical mass balance  and the multivariate methods to distinguish among  them.




Sources  that are  chemically  very similar  cannot generally be distinguished




using these methods.




    The  size  range of  the emissions  of tha suspected sources affects method




selection.  Sources that emit primarily large particles  include  the  "fugitive




dust"  sources  such  as  windblown or  mechanically  generated  or  resuspended




dusts.   Large  particles  are  amenable  to  analysis  by optical  or  scanning




electron  microscopy  or  x-ray diffraction but,   if they  come  from  a variety of




soil  or crustal related  sources, their  specific  sources  are  difficult  to




distinguish by  chemical  methods.  Pine particles, generally  defined to include




those  smaller than 2.5  jam,  are  usually associated  with  combustion sources.
                                      -75-

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They  are  too  small  for  optical  microscopy  and,  in  many cases,  they  are



primarily  carbon.   In that  case,  they  can  only  be  distinguished  by  the



chemical methods  if they have  a unique  tracer such  as lead  in gasoline  or



vanadium in fuel  oil.   Fossil, (as in fuel oil or diesel fuel) and contemporary



(as   in  wood   smoke  or   vegetative  burning)  sources  of  carbon   can  be



distinguished  to  some  extent by  carbon dating  chemistry  (Stevens  and Pace,



1984).








    4.1.4  Complementary Methods



    The  complementary  use  of  models  can  involve  the use of  two  or more



receptor models or  the use  of a combination  of receptor and source/dispersion



models.  Table 4-3  shows the models best  suited  to  complementary uses.  The



models most suited to complementary uses are  those that operate  on different



data  bases, algorithms and  assumptions such that source contribution estimates



are obtained independently.



    In viewing Table 4-3,  receptor methods may be  thought of as three  distinct



groups of methods that  represent, conceptually,  three distinct perspectives on



source  contributions.  The  first  of  these  groups,  the  qualitative  methods,



generally  rely  on  ambient  mass  concentrations,  often  in conjunction with



meteorological data.  The second  and third  groups are  listed as quantitative



methods  in the  table.   Group 2  includes mass balance  (MB),  factor  analysis



(FA), Target  Transformation Factor Analysis  (TTFA), multiple linear  regression



(MLR),  and use of  tracers.    These Group  2  methods  all  rely  on  chemical



features  of the  sources  and the bulk ambient  samples.   In contrast.  Group 3,



consisting  of  optical microscopy (CM), scanning  electron  microscopy (SEM) and



X-ray diffraction   (XRD)   relies on interpretation  of  chemical  and  physical
                                       -76-

-------


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-------
features  of  discrete  particles  found  on the  samples.   Dispersion modeling



provides yet  a fourth group,  or perspective,  by  virtue of  its  reliance  on



source emission rate estimates, meteorological data and dispersion parameters.



    In  general,  the  most  complementary  methods  are  those  that  are  from



differing  groups,  bringing differing  perspectives  to  the  analysis.   Thus,



methods within  a  group  are usually most effectively  used in  conjunction with



methods from  a second group  and not  with other methods  from the same group.



Perhaps the most  noteworthy is  the  combined use of dispersion models with any



of the other three groups.



    The  following  is  a  further  discussion  of the  complementary  aspects  of



selected features found in Table 4-3:








    4.1.4.1  Background



    A background  determination complements and  is  even  essential  to almost any



source  apportionment  study.   It is useful  in identifying particles of natural



origin  that  are  not  subject  to  control; but also,  it  helps   estimate  the



relative  contributions  of  local   influences  as  compared  to the  long range



transport component.








    4.1.4.2   Data Distributions



    Analyses    such  as    investigations   of   lognormality   and   frequency



distributions  are not particularly  useful  for source apportionment by  receptor



modeling,  although  they are needed to  determine the representativeness of the



days  being  modeled.  This analysis  may  be  useful for dispersion  modeling where



hypothetical  meteorological conditions  are  used and the  representativeness  of



these conditions  vis-a-vis  measured values needs to be  determined.
                                       -78-

-------
    4.1.4.3  Time Correlations



    Time correlations give some preliminary insights into  a  problem.   They are



essential  if  the   suspected  source  operates  intermittently  and  changing



meteorology can  be  easily  accounted for, but  in most  cases  the  meteorology



confounds  a   time   series  analysis   such   that  temporal   differences  in



concentration  cannot be  attributed  to  sources  by time  series alone.   More



elaborate  statistical  analyses such as multiple  linear  regression  are usually



needed.








    4.1.4.4  Spatial Correlations



    In  this  discussion, "spatial correlations"  include  correlations  with wind



direction  and  trajectories,  as  well  as observed  differences  or  simulations



concerning  sites  measuring  particulate  matter.   Spatial  correlations  are



usually more useful  than temporal analyses for  particulate  matter  because the



localized  nature  of many  particulate matter sources  lends  itself  to spatial



comparisons.    Such  analyses  may be  particularly useful  in  conjunction with



24-hour analyses  such  as mass balance, macroscopic methods and tracer analyses



when  their results  are classified  or  grouped  by wind  direction.   Spatial



correlations  are a  reasonably  effective supplement  to  dispersion  modeling.



For example,  pollution roses can be used to check the  reasonableness  of source



contributions  determined  by  dispersion models  and  trajectory analyses can



provide valuable  insights  into background contributions which  are  unaccounted



for by dispersion models.








    4.1.4.6  Mass Balance




    Mass balance  is generally  appropriate  and  useful  with any  other method,



but  is  especially   useful  with  dispersion  models.   Methods  such  as  factor



analysis,  multiple  linear  regression  and  tracers  are   often  done   as  a






                                      -79-

-------
preliminary step before doing  a  mass balance.  These  techniques  may be useful



in  selecting  which sources  and  fitting  elements  to consider  in  the  mass



balance approach.








    4.1.4.7  Factor Analysis



    Factor analysis provides information  on which groups  of aerosol features



(elements,  etc.} vary  together; these  groups  can be  interpreted  as  source



categories.  Thus,  FA  is  moderately useful in determining if dispersion models



have "missed"  a  major  source category.  Factor  analysis  is  useful  with other



receptor  techniques because  it provides  insight  into source  fingerprints.



This information is vital to MB and MLR  and helpful  to microscopic studies.



Target Transformation  Factor Analysis is a form of factor analysis,  thus it is



redundant with that method.








    4.1.4.8  Target Transformation Factor Analysis



    TTFA  is  a  combination  of  MB  and  FA and  thus   is  redundant  with these



methods.  It  is  useful as a complement to the microscopic methods,  just as FA,



MB, or MLR alone would be.








    4.1.4.9   Optical Microscopy/Scanning Electron Microscopy



    Polarizing light or optical microscopy  
-------
    4.1.4.10  X-Ray Diffraction




    This method  is particularly  useful  for  identifying  specific  crystalline




structures in soils  and thus, is most useful  when soil has been identified as




a major  source  component  but the methods  used,  (e.g.,  mass  balance  or the




multivariate  methods)  cannot provide more specific  information  on sources.




The x-ray  diffraction analysis can only help  when the suspected  soil sources




have differing minerology or crystalline structure.








    4.1.4.11  Multiple Linear Regression




    MLR  is particularly useful with  optical  and  scanning  electron microscopy




because  it relies  on different information or features of the ambient sample.




It is also used to help quantify the  contributions of  source groups  identified




by  factor  analysis.    It  is  usually redundant  with   mass  balance,  TTFA and




tracer methods.   It  is  most  useful when chemical  composition  data  for a  large




number of observations are available.








    4.1.4.12  Dispersion Models




    The  dispersion   models   generally  require   an   analysis   of  background




concentrations because as much  as half or more  of ambient particulate matter




in an  urban  area may originate from  beyond the  local airshed and thus  would



not  be included in  the model.  Dispersion models in  general  are  complemented




by receptor methods,  especially microscopy and mass balance analysis.  This is




because  receptor  methods  bring  an  entirely  different  perspective  to the




analysis  and  rely   on  different  information  and  assumptions.    They  are




especially  useful  to  identify  uninventoried  or  misinventoried   sources  or




source  categories.   The  microscopic  methods  are   a  useful  complement  to
                                      -81-

-------
screening or refined  models and  are  also helpful  to corroborate  the refined



dispersion  models.   The  screening models  such  as the  PT series  are useful



preliminaries to a refined model analysis.








    4.1.5  Resources



    No discussion  of method  selection would be  complete  without a discussion



of resource considerations.  The selection of methods is affected in some part



by the  expertise and experience  of the staff in the various  methods, as well



as their availability.   Equally  important  is  the availability of  funds  to



purchase  consulting or  contract  assistance.   The  time  available  to come  up



with an answer may also preclude certain  types of analyses, particularly those



that require data gathering.



    One way of conceptually structuring a study design  so  that time,  personnel



and  available  funds are  considered is  the  three  level  approach (Stevens and



Pace,  1984).   The  three  levels are not "cookbook" recipes  since all  of  the



ingredients  (methods)  and their amounts  (resource  requirements), etc., are not



firmly fixed.   The three levels are intended  as  rough guides,  or benchmarks,



and  are  flexible  to  accommodate  the  wide  range  of real  world  situations and



constraints  that are likely  to be encountered.   Within each  level,  the time



frame and nature of the  problem,  the  existing data base,  the applicability of



complementary methods and the available  resources must be  considered.








4.2 A Three Level  Approach



    Level  I uses   existing  data  or  data that  can be readily  obtained from



analyses  of existing  samples.   The models  used are those that apply to the



data  set and  that do not  require extensive  resources for their  computation.



In Level I, basic  analyses are used  to  identify contributing  sources and, if
                                       -82-

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possible,  obviate  the  need for  further  analyses.    Otherwise,   the Level  I




analyses will  serve  to narrow down the  areas to be studied  in more detail in




Level  II.   Some  source-types  can  be  eliminated from further  consideration




after  Level  I  is  finished,   thereby  focusing  data  gathering  efforts  in




Level II.  Combinations  of source  and  receptor models  can be  used  in this




process.   If   the  sources   contributing  to   the   high  concentrations  of




particulate matter are apparent and sufficiently  certain,  no  further work will




be needed beyond Level I.




    Level  II   encompasses  more  refined  analyses  than  the  first,  including




performing additional  analyses on existing samples, acquiring new samples from




existing monitoring  networks and a limited amount of  new  sampling.   Such new




sampling could be  used to obtain component "fingerprints"  for source emissions




(e.g.,  road  surface loadings  and silt  content)  or selected ambient samples.




Level   II   uses  models   that  require   more  detailed   inputs   and   larger




computational  facilities.   However,  models  and  analytical  methods  are  of a




standard nature.  Combinations of methods can be  used.




    Level  III  involves  the  acquisition  of   new  data  from  new  sampling




activities  and programs.   These programs can  be  quite  extensive,  e.g., the




deployment of  a special monitoring network in order  to obtain a  year's worth




of   particle   size-segregated   samples   suitable    for  detailed   chemical



characterization.   Analysis procedures  can  incorporate a  variety  of   models




with  very  detailed   inputs.   Models  and  analytical  methods  may  be  of  a




nonstandard nature, i.e., developed exclusively for the project.




    Suggested  approaches  to these three levels  are described in the following




subsections.    The   suggestions  and   recommendations  made   are   not  rigid




prescriptions  but  are  simply  meant  to convey the levels  of  analysis that may




be required, based on  the collective experience of the authors.
                                      -83-

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4.3 Level I:  Gathering, Evaluating, and Using Existing Data with Simple Models




    The objective of  a  Level I study is  to  determine the  likely causes  of a




given pollution  problem with  only a modest investment of  time and resources.




In a  Level I  study,  existing  data and  simple  analyses  are  used to  obtain




answers   to   questions   pertaining   to   source/receptor    (source/monitor)




relationships.   A Level  I  study  does not  involve  collecting  any new  data




through new monitoring  programs.   The first step  in  such  a study is to gather




the existing  data,  the  second  is  to evaluate  the data, and  the third  is to




determine  if  additional data  are  needed and  are feasible  to obtain.   Needed




for  these  analyses  are  source,  meteorological,   and   ambient  data.    The




collection, compilation,  and  review  of these  data are  discussed first below,




followed by suggested analysis procedures.  While a Level I  study may,  in some




cases,  (e.g., where  the  culpable source is  isolated and  easily defined,} be




adequate for  control strategy development, in most cases, a  Level I study will




serve  as  the  basis  for defining  the scope  and nature of a Level II or Level




III study.








    4.3.1  Source Data




    Various types of source data  can be used in a Level I analysis.  Such data



include  emission  rates  by  total mass  or  particle  size,  composition,   and




variability with time, and  source configuration parameters (location, height,




flow  rate;  temperature, etc.).  These data are  discussed in  Section  3.2.




    The  available  data should  be organized  and reviewed  to identify likely




important  contributors to  the ambient pollutant  levels.    An  overview of  the




major  source-to-monitor   alignments  and  initial   insight  into  the  likely




important   contributors  to   the   measured   pollutant  concentrations  can  be




obtained  if  the  major point  sources  are plotted on a  map of the  study  area.




Additional information  on   likely  contributing   sources   can  be  gained by






                                       -34-

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gathering and reviewing the SLAMS  and NAMS site surveys  (U.S.  EPA,  1979b) and



data   from  any   previously  developed   microinventories  for   the  area(s)



surrounding (within a radius of  2  km) the monitor(s).  If  SLAMS  and NAMS site



surveys do not exist,  such surveys  can  be performed with minimal  effort for



sites of critical concern in a Level  I  study,  or they can  be  delayed until it



is determined whether a Level II analysis is needed.



    The  source   emissions   data  should  next  be   organized  and   compiled.



Compilations  by  source-type  categories  (e.g.,  power  plant,  steel  plant,



municipal  incinerator,   traffic-related), with the  emission  rates  in  each



category   summed   and  then  sorted  by  the   category   emission  totals  are



recommended.  These source groupings  can  then  be maintained through subsequent



dispersion  modeling  analyses   (e.g.,  ISC)  and  also used for  comparison to



measured concentrations  (by particle composition, if available).   If particle



composition  data  for the  source  emissions  (chemical species, particle sizes,



etc.)  are  available,  they  could also be  tabulated for  each  source, starting



with   categories  of  highest  emission  rates.   From these  tables,  chemical



species unique  to specific sources  (i.e., tracers),  and  the dominant chemical



species and particle  sizes  in the  study area can be identified.








    4.3.2  Meteorological Data



    All  readily   available  meteorological  data  should   be  collected  and



evaluated  for  validity and  representativeness to  the   study area.  Possible



sources  and evaluation  procedures for  meteorological data are  described in



Sections 2.3.7  and 3.3.  Once a valid,  representative meteorological data set



has  been  assembled,  it is recommended  that   the  locations  of  all  the  wind



measurement  stations  be noted on  the same map  with the major  point  sources and



that  24-hour vector average wind  speeds and  directions  be generated for the
                                      -85-

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days of interest.  Vector averages at each station for a given  day can then be



plotted  at  each of  the  meteorological  station  locations.    Once   the  wind



vectors have been plotted, the  daily wind fields can be  analyzed for dominant



directional  patterns  and any  anomalous  wind  directions  due  to channeling



effects.  Other suggested evaluations of meteorological  data include  comparing



tall tower  data  (if available)  with surface level data (to estimate any change



of direction with height) and comparing local  flow patterns with the overall



synoptic pattern apparent from  NWS surface weather  maps  (to assess long-range



transport).








    4.3.3  Ambient Data



    Measured  ambient  pollutant  data  should  be  gathered  from  all  existing



monitoring  networks.   Historically,  most  particulate  matter   monitoring has



involved hi-vol  samplers which collect TSP data.  More recently,  some sampling



has been  conducted  using dichotomous,  size-selective hi-vol  or other samplers



hich  collect PMio  data.  Most Level  I studies  will  involve  the analysis of



TSP data.   Depending on  the analyses performed,  such  studies may also provide



information  regarding    source    contributions   to   PMio    concentrations.



Potentially helpful data bases are  described  in  Section  3.4.   In  order to



assess  the source-to-monitor relationships, the  locations of the  monitors can



be plotted on the same map as the  source and meteorological  data.








    4.3.4   Procedures  (Level I)



    A   Level  I  modeling  study  involves  performing  a  series  of  relatively



simple, straightforward analyses  designed  to  enable  the  analyst  to  deduce



cause   and   effect   relationships  between   source   emissions   and ambient



concentrations.   Each analysis can provide  information to make  it possible  to
                                       -86-

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eliminate insignificant sources  and focus in on  important  contributors.   Work




performed  by  Brookman (U.S.  EPA,  1983d),  and  summarized  in  Section  5.2,




provides  a  good  example  of  a  basic  Level  I  study  approach.   Additional




protocol information is contained in the study report.








    4.3.4.1  Qualitative Receptor Modeling Analyses




    A good place to  start  conducting a source apportionment  study  is with the




qualitative  receptor  modeling  analyses  described  in  Section  2.3.7.   These




analyses   can  be   performed  readily   using   total   particulate   matter




concentrations, and,  if data  are  available, they can also be performed using




constituent  and size-segregated  concentrations.   The results  of  such analyses




must be  interpreted  with  due consideration of the sampling instruments, filter




media, and other factors  involved in the collection  of  the particulate matter




samples,  as  discussed  in  Section 3.4.  An appropriate  initial  analysis for a




Level   I  receptor  modeling   study  is   the   determination  of   background




concentrations.   By  conventional  definition,   background  concentrations  are




those caused primarily by sources  located outside the  study area.   Background




concentrations  can  be developed   for  both  long-term  (annual,  seasonal,  and




monthly)  and  short-term   (<  24 hour)  periods  for the   various  particulate




matter  concentrations.   Several  years   of   data  can  be   combined  to  obtain



sufficient samples for  short-term and monthly averages.




    -The  next analysis  of  interest is the trend  analysis in which annual mean




ambient    concentrations,    less    the    corresponding    annual   background




concentrations, are  plotted as  a  function  of time (for as many  years of data




as are available).   The results  can then be  compared to yearly emissions data




(if  available) to see if there is any  agreement between changes in ambient




levels  and  events such as  source  shutdowns,  source  startups or  implemented
                                      -87-

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control strategies.   A correspondence  (i.e.,  1:1)  between  percentage changes




in  total  emissions  versus percentage  changes in  total ambient  levels  (less




background)  is  supportive of  the  accuracy of  the  emissions  inventory.   Poor




agreement  may be  indicative  of deficiencies  in the  inventory.   If  no  trend




emerges, it may be possible to obtain some trend  information if the individual




daily  concentrations  are first  grouped  according to  recurring patterns  of




synoptic  (i.e.,  air  mass)  scale  meteorological  conditions.    When  these




averages are plotted, trends  may  become  evident for certain  wind directions




relevant to  specific source-to-monitor alignment directions.




    Next,  more  detailed  temporal  and  spatial  correlation  analyses can  be




performed.   These include seasonal and  monthly  trend analyses, weekday/weekend




analyses,  wet/dry  day  analyses,  episode  day analyses  and  spatial  mapping.




Seasonal  and  monthly  trend  analyses  can  be  used  to  identify  traffic,




agricultural,  and  other  fugitive dust influences.   Weekday/weekend analyses




can  also help  identify  traffic-related  impacts.   Wet/dry  day   analyses  can




provide  an  initial estimate  of  the  magnitude  o£ the  total non-traditional




fugitive  particulate  matter  impacts.   Episode  day  analyses  are useful  for




separating   local  from distant source  contributions.   Spatial mapping  can be



used  to show  source contribution patterns  for various  time periods (annual,




wet/dry  days,  episode days, persistent wind days,  etc.), with  comparisons from




one time period to another revealing the  relative  magnitude of various  source




category influences.




    Correlation coefficients  and  time  series analyses  can  also be  used to




relate receptor concentrations to sources.   Analyses performed on particulate




matter data  for  multiple  sites  can  be  used  to  identify  sites  and periods




influenced   by  local sources.  Analyses  performed on  particulate matter data
                                       -88-

-------
and  other  parameters  can be  used  to help  reveal  the location  and relative




influence of the  nearby sources.   Also suitable for  further study  are those




cases  where  concentrations  at all  sites  rise  simultaneously  (i.e.,  episode




days).



    If  the  wind  direction was  persistent  on the  sampling days  of  interest,




pollution  roses  can   be   of  value   in   determining   contributing   sources,




especially if  chemical composition  data are available.  If  the  bulges in the




pollution  rose  concentrations  at  multiple  sites  point   toward  the  same




location, triangulation may help pinpoint specific sources.








    4.3.4.2  Dispersion Modeling Screening Analyses




    For  the  sampling  sites  of concern,  screening  source/dispersion modeling




analyses can provide information concerning  source  contributions  based on the




inventories of source data obtained for each  site.  Various models can be used




for  this purpose  depending  on the  objective of  the  analysis,  the  type of




sources  in the  area  and  the  availability  of  computational  resources.   The




primary  objective of a screening dispersion  modeling analysis  is to eliminate




insignificant sources from further  consideration.   Dispersion modeling to meet




this  objective is  discussed below.   This  screening dispersion  modeling will




also provide information on the relative magnitude  of  source  contributions and



thus  help focus  the  direction of  subsequent analyses.   Dispersion modeling




techniques designed  to better quantify  source contributions are  discussed in




Section  4.4 (Level II).




    If  possible,  the model selected for a  screening analysis should have the




capability  to  1)  predict  individual  source contributions at  user-defined




discrete receptor points (i.e., the monitoring sites of concern), 2)  determine




contributions  from  multiple  sources,  3)  accept  user-defined  meteorological
                                      -89-

-------
data, 4) account  for  particle settling (pollutant deposition),  and 5) predict




contributions from point, area, volume (i.e., certain elevated  area),  and line




sources.   Ideally,  the  model  should  also  be  able  to  directly  determine




contributions  for the  time  period(s)  of  concern  and  be able  to  reliably




calculate impacts in  locations with complex terrain.   Since  receptor modeling




analyses are generally  concerned with particulate matter collected on filters




during  short-term (1-24 hour) time periods, discussion of screening dispersion




modeling analyses in  this  subsection is  limited  to  these   short-term  time




periods.  A comprehensive  evaluation of the  capabilities  of  some dispersion




models, for use in receptor modeling applications, is shown in  Table 4-4.   The




model  capabilities ratings  in  Table  4-4  provide a  useful  measure  of model




features, but  when models  are  selected  for  use in  specific  situations  EPA




guidance  (U.S.  EPA,  1978a)  should also be  considered.   See  Section 2.2.2 and




the   respective   model   user's  guides   for  additional   discussion   of  the




capabilities of these dispersion models.




     If  computer  resources are not available,  rough  estimates  of the  potential




magnitude   of   the  source  contributions   can  be  obtained   using   published




nomographs  or  by performing  hand calculations  following procedures  described



by  Turner   (1970)  or  the Guidelines  for  Air  Quality  Maintenance Planning and




Analysis  Volume  10R  (U.S.  EPA  1977a).   If  limited  computer  resources  are




available,  such  estimates  can be obtained  using  the EPA UNAMAP models PTMAX,




PTDIS, "or PTPLU,  but all three of these models  are  designed  for point  sources




only.   PTMAX and PTPLU will  not predict  source contributions at  user-defined




receptor  locations.    The   above methodologies  can   be  used  to   eliminate




insignificant  sources  from further consideration, but  are  generally inadequate




for estimating the combined contributions  of  multiple sources.   Furthermore,




none  of  the  methodologies  have the   capability  to  account  for  particle




deposition.






                                       -90-

-------








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-92-

-------
    A simple  computerized screening  model  for multiple  point sources  is the




EPA UNAMAP model  PTMTP.   With PTMTP, the user  can define the receptor points,




input the meteorological data of  interest,  and specify the  time  periods to be




modeled.   Alternatively,  if   area  and  line  sources  are  expected  to  be




important, the  EPA point, area  and  line  (PAL)  source model  can be  used for




screening modeling analyses.  Unfortunately,  neither PTMTP nor PAL can account




for  particle  deposition,  a  serious  deficiency  for  analyses  of  monitors




significantly impacted by fugitive dust sources.




    If  sufficient  computer  resources  (core  space  and  data  storage)  are




available,  the  EPA  MPTER  and  RAM  models  offer  some  additional  valuable




capabilities  for  use in  screening modeling  analyses.   MPTER is  designed for




rural  point  sources only.   RAM should  be  used  for  urban  point  and area




sources.  These models  are designed for use  in more  comprehensive dispersion




modeling  analyses, but,  with appropriate input data, MPTER and RAM can be used




in a screening analysis mode.  MPTER and RAM can be  used  to calculate particle




deposition, but only through the  use of an exponential decay term.




    If  the  computer  resources and required input  data are  available,  the EPA




ISCST  model  is  probably  the  best available  for  use  in  screening  modeling




analyses  in relation to  receptor modeling applications.   In addition  to the




capabilities  of  the  models  discussed  above,  ISCST  can  predict contributions



from  point,  area,  and volume   sources  and  directly  account  for  particle




settling  by particle size.  Like MPTER and RAM, ISCST is  designed for use in




refined  dispersion modeling  analyses,  but  can  be  operated  in a  screening




analysis  mode when appropriate data are used as input.




    All  of  the aforementioned  models are  short-term models  designed  to use




hourly  meteorological data to calculate hourly impacts which are then averaged




or  otherwise  applied to  24-hour periods.   As an  alternative,  for  screening




dispersion modeling  analysis  purposes, 24-hour impacts can be determined using






                                      -93-

-------
models  designed to  calculate  long-term  (i.e.,  monthly, seasonal,  or annual)




average impacts.  For such analyses, artificial  or hypothetical meteorological




input data must be constructed to simulate conditions  that occur over 24-hour




periods.  Of the models of this type shown in Table 4-4, only  AQDM,  CDMQC, and




ISCLT  can be  used  to  predict source  contributions at discrete user-defined




receptor points.  Only ISCLT accounts for particle deposition.




    None  of  these models  is  specifically designed for  screening analyses for




the  24-hour  impacts  of  multiple  sources.    Screening  dispersion  modeling




analyses  can proceed at  different  levels of  detail.  The  choice of the  level




of detail employed and the model selected for a given situation will depend on




a  number  of factors  including  1)  the  objective of the  analysis, 2) model and




input  data  availability  and compatibility  and  3)  the  desired  precision of




results.   Simplifying   assumptions  must  be  made   in   screening  modeling




analyses.  The  initial  simplifying assumptions are those contained  within the




computational   algorithms   of   the  various  models.   Additional   simplifying




assumptions  are made in 1} the choice  of a model,  2}  the  selection  of  model




options  and  3)  the  treatment  of  model input data.   Thus, screening modeling




analyses  inherently  involve making trade-offs between the  reliability and the




efficiency of the  analysis.



    The  following screening dispersion modeling  approaches are  suggested to




meet  the  objective of identifying insignificant sources.  These  approaches are




intended  only   as  starting  points  for  other  ideas   since  many  workable




approaches  are  possible.   For  a given analysis,  the  specific procedures used




must  be tailored to  the individual situation encountered.




    Insignificant  point sources can be identified with reasonable  reliability




and  efficiency using the PTDIS model.   PTDIS calculates 1-hour impacts  based
                                       -94-

-------
on  a   user-specified  array   of   wind  speed   and  atmospheric   stability

combinations,  regardless   of  wind  direction.   An  array  of  applicable  wind

speed/stability  combinations  is  provided  in  Table  4-5.    With PTDIS,  each

source  must   be  modeled  separately  with   the   source-to-receptor  (i.e.,

source-to-monitoring  site)  distance specified.   To ensure  that  no  potential

impacts are  overlooked, a few closer and more distant receptors should also be

modeled.   Each source should  be modeled using  simplifying  assumptions  that

maximize  the  modeled impacts.   Thus,  point  sources  are  modeled at  maximum

emission  rates,  assuming  no particle  deposition.  Sources  with  insignificant

24-hour  impacts  are  identified  as  those that PTDIS  shows  have  insignificant

1-hour  impacts.   Since the modeled contributions  of  all the  modeled sources

will  tend to  be  overpredicted,  no  potentially significant sources will  be

overlooked.



                                   TABLE 4-5

               APPROPRIATE COMBINATIONS OF WIND SPEED AND STABILITY
                  FOR USE IN PTDIS SCREENING MODELING ANALYSES

      Pasquill-Gifford
        Atmospheric
          Stability
	Classifications	Wind Speeds (m/s)	

             A                          1 to 3

             B                          1 to 5

             C                          1 to 5,  7, 9, 12, 15

             D                          1 to 5,  7, 9, 12, 15, 20

             E                          1 to 5

             F                          1 to 3
                                      -95-

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    Insignificant area, volume,  (i.e.,  elevated area) and  line  sources can be

identified  using  the  following  two  equations.   In   order   to  use  these

equations, all  area,  volume  and line  sources  must be  treated  as square area

sources.  The first thing to  be  determined is whether the  monitor in question

is  located  within or  "near"  the  area  source.   For   the  purposes  of this

screening analysis,  "near"  is defined  as  within  a  factor  of  0.6  Ax  +  100

meters  of  the center  of  the area source,  where Ax is  the  length of the side

of the  area  source.   Equation 1 applies  to monitors  located within  0.6 Ax +

100 meters  of the  area source  center  and equation 2 applies to more distant

monitors
          Qj  =  Ci • (Ax)l'7s » u                                  Equation 1
                     18 • 10"

          Qi  =  Ci • (Ax)1 '* • u ._                                 Equation 2
                     18 • 10s

    where:

          Qi  =  an emission rate in g/3
          Ci  =  an impact in ug/m3
          Ax  =  the length of the area source side in m
          u   =  a wind speed in m/s


    Equation  1  was obtained  from  the  U.S.  EPA Guidelines  for  Air Quality

Maintenance  Planning  and Analysis  Volume  10R  (1977a)  and  equation  2  was

derived empirically using the ISCST model.

    "If  a  1-hour concentration  of 10  ug/m3,   (roughly  equivalent  to 24-hour

concentrations   of   5   u/m3,  see  Volume   10   above  )  is   assumed  to  be

insignificant  sources  as  those  with a  Q/(Ax)l'7s  ratio  of less  than 5.56  x

10"7  and equation  2  identifies  insignificant   sources  as  those  with   a

Q/(Ax)l's  ratio  of  less than  5.56  x  10~s.   Since  the  above  procedures

are  designed to overpredict contributions, sources  whose  impacts  are  deemed

insignificant can be eliminated  from further consideration.


                                      -96-

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    4.3.4.3  Qualitative and Quantitative Receptor Modeling Analyses




    Very  often  additional  measurements   taken  on  filter  samples  may  be




available.  Several State and local agencies perform  routine  chemical analysis




of  selected filters  for certain  chemical species.   Others  submit  a certain




number to microscopic analyses.   As  mentioned  in  Section 3.4,  EPA  has  been




collecting  size  and  chemically resolved  samples at  IPN  sites in  many major




U.S.  cities (Watson,  et  al.,  1981).   These  data  can be  used in  additional




Level I analyses to verify the conclusions drawn from previous analyses.  The




data  quality   issues  discussed   in  Section   3.4   should  be   taken  into




consideration when these data are analyzed.




    Time  series  plots,   pollution roses,  and  spatial  mapping  of  chemical




species such as  lead and bromine  (which are almost  always  indicative of auto




exhaust contributions) and aluminum and silicon  (which are usually contributed




by  soil dust)  can  reveal source contributions which  might not be evident when




only mass measurements are used.




    Rudimentary  mass balances can be  performed  to  determine  the relative




contributions  of   various   source  categories.    For  example,   assume  that




approximately  8  percent  of  soil is  aluminum  and  that  8  percent  of  the




aggregate  auto exhaust  emissions   are  lead.  By dividing  aluminum  and  lead




concentrations by  0.08,  one  achieves a  rough estimate of  the soil  and auto



exhaust contributions to a mass concentration.  One could  choose a lower limit




of  these  compositions,  e.g.  5 percent,  and could achieve a  very conservative




approximation  of  these  sources'   contributions.   If  they  are  still  minor



contributors,  they  could  be removed from further consideration for control.  A




review of the source compositions in Appendix  B for  sources suspected as  a




result of analyses  performed on total particulate matter data would allow this




procedure to be applied to  a  number of sources,   if their  key chemical species




were measured.






                                      -97-

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    Microscopic  analyses  are  most  informative  when  three  conditions  are



satisfied:  spatial and time series plots should show  individual  sites or "hot



spots"  with high  concentrations;  pollution  roses  should show  a directional



tendency;  and  alignment of  the  monitor(s)  and  the major  sources  in  the



emissions  inventory  should  show  correspondence  with  the  prevailing  wind



direction.    Though   it   requires   a   skilled   microscopist   to   perform



semi-quantitative analyses  of  filter samples, a qualitative examination of the



majority  of the particles  observed  on  an  ambient filter,  in  comparison  to



those  observed  on  sieved  samples  taken  from  suspected  sources,  can  be



revealing.  Samples can be taken, dried, sieved and mounted on  slides in 1.513



index  of  refraction  immersion  oil  for  examination.   Several  portions  of  a



hi-vol  filter can also  be  immersed  in  an oil  of 1.518  index  of   refraction



(this  makes  the  filter  disappear under  transmitted  light).   If  the filter



deposit   is  dominated  by  the  source  material,  it  is  probably  a  major



contributor.   If  absolutely none is found, then  other sources  must  be sought.



If  the  deposit  shows  a mixture  of  materials,  more  complete  microscopic



analysis  by an expert will be required.



    Probably  the most  important  step of a Level I  assessment  is the  evaluation



of  the extent  to  which  the  existing data support a  control  action.  In many



cases,  particularly  those of an exceedance of  standards at a  solitary  site,



the  conclusions  drawn from  the varied uses  of existing  data  described here



will  be  sufficient  to  identify  major  contributing sources   and   devise  a.



strategy to control them.



    Even if  this  is  not possible,  the Level  I  examination  will  result  in



conclusions about which  existing  sources  are  not major contributors, thereby



narrowing the list of those which must  be dealt  with in greater  detail  in a.



Level II strategy.
                                       -98-

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    4.3.5  Resources

    Assuming that existing  data  have been acquired and validated (a task which

can  take  from one  man-week  to  one  man-year,  depending  on  the  specific

situation) the analyses  described here should not  result  in more than several

man-months  of effort.   Computational  capability  requirements  are  minimal,

though a hand calculator or personal  computer  with spreadsheet  and graphics

software would greatly  facilitate the work.  The  analyses discussed  here can

be  performed with  little  or  no  need for  additional monitoring  and  with a

minimal number of laboratory analyses.   The cost of  studies  of this magnitude

should range from $5,000 to $25,000.



4.4 Level  II:   Acquire  More  Data without  Extensive  Sampling  and  Use More of
    the Capabilities in Refined Models

    The  cause and  effect  relationships  between source emissions  and ambient

concentrations can  often be deduced using analyses performed at the  level of

sophistication described in the  preceding section  (Level I).   However, while

the answers might be obvious as to which  sources are  primarily responsible for

a   given  air  pollution   problem,  a   quantitative  apportionment  of  that

responsibility may be  impossible  or may  lack a  reasonable degree of certainty

and  thus  be  insufficient  to  justify  the formulation  and  implementation of

expensive  emission control  strategies.   If this  proves to  be the case,  a more

rigorous  study,  of  the  type  discussed  in this  section  (Level II),  can be

performed.



    4.4.1  Source Data

    The  emission inventories  for  the  sources  that  are  considered to  be the

most likely contributors to the problem  (on the basis of the  Level  I analyses)

should be checked  and  verified  or  corrected.   This process could start with
                                      -99-

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the 5 to  10  most likely contributors and, if need be, proceed to other sources

based  on.  a  prioritization  scheme  starting  with  the  largest  and  nearest

sources.   Parameters   of  concern   include  material   throughputs,   control

efficiencies, stack heights,  stack diameters,  exhaust gas  flow  rates,  exhaust

gas temperatures, etc.   Emission rates can be checked by comparing inventoried

values  to new  values   calculated  using  the best  available  current  emission

factors.   If emission,  rates  vary greatly from day to day, hour to hour or over

other relevant time periods,  it would be valuable  to  calculate such short-term

emission rates for inclusion in the inventory.

    Sources such  as  road dust, storage piles,  open burning,  playground dust,

etc.  are  often  important  contributors  to particulate  matter  problems.   If

these types  of emissions were not evaluated  in the  Level I analyses,  or if

they  were  included on a  broad  spatial  scale only,  then  it  would  now be

advisable  to compile  these  emissions using microinventory  techniques  around

each  sampling  site.   Comprehensive microinventories may not be required in all

cases,  but they are usually of  value,  especially at  receptor sites suspected

of  being  influenced by nearby  sources of fugitive  dust.   The procedures for

developing microinventories   are  discussed  in  Section  3.2.   Daily  emission

inventories  may be  needed if  emission  rates vary greatly from day to day, but

they  can  be quite difficult to obtain.

    Most  existing inventories do not contain data on  particle size or chemical

constituents.   Therefore,  for a Level  II  analysis,  it may be  necessary to

obtain   source   emission samples  for  physical  and  chemical  analyses using

inexpensive  grab  sampling  techniques.    Chow,  at  al.,  <1981)   describe  the

following methodology  for taking these  samples:


        "Several  common source  types  are  amenable   to  "grab sampling",
     resuspension sampling and subsequent  chemical analysis.   These  source
     types include:   road dust, road salt, soil,  storage  pile  contents,
     loading  and unloading materials,  and  baghouse  and cyclone  residue.


                                      -100-

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       A  representative  sample  of the  material can  be  collected in  a
    ziplock bag.   In the  laboratory  it can  be dried,  sieved through  a
    Tyler  400  mesh  sieve  (38  urn  screen  size)   and  resuspended  for
    sampling with devices  similar  to  those used to  take  ambient  samples.
    The chemical analyses  performed on these resuspensions  should be  the
    same as those of the ambient samples."
    4.4.2  Meteorological Data

    The  desire  to  obtain better  quantification  of  source  contributions  to

ambient  concentrations  may  result  in  the  need  for  additional,  or  more

representative, meteorological  data than  were  used in  the Level  I analyses.

In Level  I,  dispersion modeling analyses can be performed using representative

hypothetical  meteorological   data   (e.g.  Table  4-5),   and  receptor  modeling

analyses  can  be  performed using data obtained from published or other readily

available historical records.  In a Level II study, it may  be  necessary,  or at

least  advisable,  to  construct  a  computerized  data  base  of  meteorological

information  for  multiple  years, parameters,  and monitoring sites.   Such  a

computerized  data  base could be used to calculate surface and  upper air wind

trajectories  based  on data   obtained from  multiple  NWS  or  other monitoring

sites.

    The more  refined dispersion models can  use  either hypothetical  or actual

meteorological  data.   The  refined  short-term  models  can  calculate  hourly,

daily, or other  short-term average impacts  using  up to  a full year  of hourly

meteorological data.   Such a large data set can be used efficiently only if it

is computerized.   If dispersion modeling is going to  be performed on  a  large

number  of sampling  days  of  data,  then it  is advisable  to obtain  computerized

data sets of  the hourly meteorological data.  For  NWS  stations,  such data sets

can  be obtained  from  the  NCDC  in  the format required for  input  to the CRSTER

preprocessor.
                                     -101-

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    The  representativeness of  the  meteorological  data  is  of  considerable



importance to  the Level  II  study.   Proximity  and similarity  of  location are



the  primary  concerns  as  discussed  in  Section   3.3.    The  meteorological



station(s) should be  located reasonably  close  to  the  sources and  sampling



sites and  in  an  area  of similar topography.   If no  NWS stations  meet these



criteria,  it   may be  possible  to  obtain  wind data  from  a  nearby  non-NWS



location and then merge  these data  with data  for  parameters other  than wind



obtained  at  the  NWS  site.  Uncertainties should be assigned to each  of the



parameters  measured.    If the   available  meteorological  data  are   deemed



unrepresentative, a  Level  III  study  will  be  required to  gather  appropriate



data.








    4.4.3  Ambient Data



    Level  II  analyses become necessary when the results of  Level  I analyses



are  inconclusive  or  incomplete.   This will  often occur  because of a  lack of



existing  data on the composition  of the ambient  particulate  matter.   It is



often  possible  to  obtain  such  data  by  analyzing  the  material  on  existing



filters  or  by  collecting a limited number  of  new  filters.  A suggested



procedure  for selecting  filters  for  subsequent  analysis (for  particle  size,



chemical constituents, and other properties) follows.



     For  an "ideal"  receptor  modeling  study, a large  number  of the available



filters  from  a  monitoring site  would be  subject to  analysis  and subsequent



receptor  model evaluation.   Such  an  approach  is not  feasible  when resources



are  limited  and only a  small subset of the available  filters can be analyzed.



It becomes necessary, therefore, to  select filters  which are representative of



a  wide range  of  conditions.  When short-term particulate matter concentrations



are  of concern,  the selection of filters  for analysis can  be  limited  to  some
                                      -102-

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of  the  days  of  high  concentrations  plus  a  few  clean  day  filters  for

comparison.  When  long-term particulate matter  concentrations  are the problem

a broader selection of filters is warranted.  If both  the  long- and short-term

time frames  are of  concern,  a  suggested  approach is to  select filters that,

taken together, are reasonably representative of annual  average conditions but

that  also  include  conditions  where  maximum  short-term concentrations  and

source impacts occur.

    The  following  criteria are  suggested  for  use  in the  selection  of  the

ambient sampling day filters to be analyzed:


    •   Select  filters  from  day(s)  with  widespread  high  particulate
        matter  concentrations (episode  days).   By selecting  the date(s)
        on which most  of the monitors  indicated high  concentrations, the
        primary  causes   of  the   particulate  matter  problem  can  be
        identified and studied.

    •   Select  filters  from  day(s)   with  light  and  variable  winds.
        Filters  from  such  days would represent  a  homogeneous mix of
        contributions from various sources.

    •   Select   filters  from   day(s)   with   "average"   meteorological
        conditions.   Filters  from  day(s)  which  have wind  speeds  and
        stabilities close to  the average for the  year are selected to be
        representative   of  days  with   typical  contributions   from   each
        source.

    •   Select  filters  from  day(s)  with high  wind  speeds.   Filters
        analyzed for such days will indicate  the  extent to which certain
        resuspended  material  and fugitive emissions affect  the monitors.
        (Useful if windblown dust is suspected as  a major  source.)

    •   Select   filters   from   day(s)   with  low   particulate  matter
        concentrations.   Filters from  those days having  low particulate
        matter  concentrations  (non-precipitation days) are selected to be
        representative  of  days  with  minimal impacts  from  each source.
        (Useful if annual average concentrations are of  interest.)

    •   Select  filters from day(s) with persistent  winds  coming from the
        direction   of   sources   previously  identified   as    suspected
        contributors.   Filters  from  such  days  can  be  used  in direct
        comparisons  to dispersion model results to  evaluate  the  accuracy
        and  representativeness  of source  emission rates and other source
        configuration  parameters.
                                      -103-

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It  is  also  advisable to  analyze  several  typical  "background" filters  from



monitors outside of the study area  in order to obtain data  on the  composition



of material coming into the study area.



    If  additional   ambient  sampling  is   necessary,    important   technical



considerations  include  sampling locations and periods,  sampler type, particle



size,  filter  media and  the sample  preparation  requirements  of the particle



analysis  instruments  (Gordon,  et al.,  1983).   For a Level  II analysis only a



few samplers  should  be needed  at locations where  existing particle size and



composition  data  are  inadequate.   Such  sampling  would  probably best  be



performed  with dichotomous samplers  to obtain  fine and  coarse fractions  on



Teflon  or  Millipore  filters  to  facilitate chemical  and  coarse  microscopic



analyses.   Quartz  filters  could  be used  if sampling for carbon and  ions  is



needed.  The  results  from such  sampling  could  then  be  used to  judge the



accuracy of existing particle composition data obtained from hi-vol sampling.








    4.4.4  Procedures  (Level II)



    4.4.4.1  Receptor Modeling Analyses



    Some  idea of  the  most likely  contributors  to  each  receptor  should have



 resulted  from the  Level I  efforts and this  can be used as guidance in  choosing



 the  further  analyses  of  receptor  samples.   For  these  sources,  the source



 characterization literature in Appendix  B can  be  surveyed   to  1)  determine



 which  chemical  and  physical  properties will  identify  and  help  to  quantify



 these  sources,  and  2)  decide which analysis methods are  appropriate for the



 existing  samples.



    Not  all analyses can  be performed on all filter media.  For example,  x-ray



 fluorescence  (XRF) is  inappropriate  for samples  taken on  fiber  filters because



 of the  x-ray  absorption  in this  thick filter media.   XRF  is very good for



 Teflon and other thin pure membrane  filters.  The  blank  levels of the filters






                                      -104-

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must  be  much  less than  the  concentrations  of  the  species  being  measured.




These  levels  can vary  from batch  to  batch of  filters,  and  if  blank filters




from  the sampling  batches  have  not  been  saved,  erroneous   results  may be




obtained.  Many  glass  fiber filters contain organic  binders which will hinder




any analysis for carbonaceous species.




    Watson, et al.,  (1981) discuss the effects of sulfate and nitrate artifact




formation on  filters  and show how  a  change  of filter media during  a sampling




program  can yield  an artificial increase in both total particulate matter and




sulfate  levels  which  might be  interpreted  as  a  sudden change  in  source




contributions.   The   data  interpretation  efforts   in  Level  II  cannot be




separated  from  the  measurement  process,  and   each  additional  analysis of




existing samples must be thoroughly validated.




    An  important aspect of receptor modeling  is the  use  and  propagation of




measurement precision  to the model results.  These precisions must be acquired




with  any additional  analyses through  routine  replicate  and  blank analyses.




Watson,  et  al.,  (1983) describe methods of  using these analyses to obtain the




precision of analysis results.




    To  quantify  source contributions, a chemical mass balance calculation may




be  the  most  straightforward  approach.   This  requires  a  source  composition




matrix in addition to ambient component concentrations.




    If   more   than   50  receptor  samples   with   chemical   characterization




measurements  are  available,  then the  multiple  linear  regression  or factor




analysis models  can be  used to narrow down  the  number of contributing sources




and possibly to  calculate  source compositions.




    A  standard   factor  analysis  can  be   performed  using  many  standard




statistical  packages  such  as Statistical  Package   for  the   Social  Sciences




(SPSS),   Biomedical   Data  Processing   Programs   (BMDP),    and   Statistical
                                     -105-

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Applications  Systems   (SAS).   A  standardized  correlation  matrix   of  all



variables and a  varimax rotation is the most commonly used configuration.  The



number  of  dominant  factors  should  correspond  to  the  number  of  dominant



sources,  and the  chemical species with which these  factors are  most highly



correlated can be used with existing source  composition  information drawn from



Appendix B to associate each factor with a source type.



    If  the  source mix  is such that  fairly unique  tracers can  be identified



with different sources,  factor  analysis will confirm this.  Such a tracer will



be  highly  correlated   with  one  factor  but  not correlated with any  other



significant  factor  (Kleinman,  1977).   The multiple  linear  regression  (MLR)



model  can be applied  using  tracer species.  The  coefficients  represent  the



inverse  of  the  tracer  concentration  in the source  emissions,  and the product



of each coefficient and the receptor concentration of  the corresponding  tracer



element  yields the contribution of that source to the total mass concentration



measured  at  the  receptor.  If the  "effective  variance"  weighting  (Watson, et



al.,  1983)  is  used to perform the MLR  least squares fit,  then each measurement



will  be weighted  in  inverse proportion to its uncertainty and  a  realistic



error  bound  will appear in the result.



    If it appears  that  several sources  are  contributing  substantial quantities



of  the  same chemical  species,   then  a Target Transformation Factor  Analysis



 (TTPA) can  be used  to derive  a source  composition  matrix.   Hopke,  et  al.,



 (1983) have -created the  FANTASIA computer program  which will  perform  this



analysis  and the subsequent mass balances   to  calculate  source  contributions.



 It  relies on correlations about the origin  and a  target  rotation.



    If fewer than  50  samples are  available,  the statistical significance of



 the multivariate models  is in doubt.   A mass  balance calculation  can be used,



 but  this requires a source composition matrix assembled from specific  source
                                      -106-

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tests or  literature values.   If  reentrained  dust  or  fugitive emissions  are




suspected,  then  grab   samples   may  be  taken  and   analyzed  as  discussed




previously.  Since  the  variability  of  source compositions  contribute  to  the




overall uncertainty of  the  mass  balance results, replicate  analyses should be




performed on samples  of materials collected at  several  emission points within




the  same  source  so  that  average  source  compositions and  their .standard




deviations can be obtained.   Compositions for sources which cannot be sampled




with Level  II resources  (e.g.  smokestacks)  must  be obtained  from literature




such as is cited in Appendix B.




    The mass  balances are  iterative,  and several combinations  of sources can




provide  equally  valid  fits  to  the  receptor  chemical  concentration  data




(Watson,  1979).   Judgement  must  be used to obtain a  physically significant




solution when using existing computer models.




    The optical  and  scanning  electron  microscopy models combine  the analysis




and  modeling together.   Since neither  the  analysis   nor  the  classification




schemes  in  use  are  accepted  by  all  researchers,  analysis  discrepancies




described  in  Section  3  are  often compounded  by  interpretation discrepancies,




making  the  results  semi-quantitative.   Nonetheless,  microscopy  can provide




conclusive  source  contribution  results  in  certain  situations.   The  cost  of




analysis  per sample  is  also five  to  ten times the cost of the bulk chemical



analysis used for input to the factor analysis, MLR and mass balance.




    Microscopic analyses and models may be used  in  Level II to 1) confirm the




conclusions drawn on a sub-set of samples by one of the other models and 2) to




resolve  anomalies   found  by these  models.   Mote, however,  that not  all fine




particles can be readily identified with microscopic analyses.
                                     -107-

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    4.4.4.2  Dispersion Modeling Analyses




    The dispersion modeling analyses in a Level II study are  more detailed and




generally  require more  input  data  than  the Level  I  analyses.  Since  it is




important  to be  able to  determine  source/receptor relationships  on both a




short-term  (e.g., daily)  and long-term  (e.g.,  annual) basis,  techniques for




modeling  both  time  periods  are  discussed  in  the   following  paragraphs.




Procedures for modeling daily impacts are discussed first.




    The   primary   objective   of   dispersion   modeling   is   the   reliable




quantification  of  source   contributions.   The  screening  dispersion modeling




approaches  discussed  in Level  I provide  a  reasonably reliable and efficient




means  to  eliminate  insignificant  sources,  but  the  simplifying assumptions




employed  can completely obscure the  relative magnitude  of  the contributing




source  impacts.   More reliable  source contribution  estimates can be obtained




if more detailed  dispersion modeling analyses are performed.




    In  the  following paragraphs,  two  different  approaches  are suggested  for




the  more  detailed  short-term modeling analyses.   The first approach  can be




used  to  determine the relative  magnitude of  source  impacts for  24-hour periods




in general.  The  second can  be  used to do the  same  thing for specific 24-hour



periods on which particulate matter sampling has already been  conducted.   The




first  approach uses  hypothetical  meteorological  data  that are  representative




of  conditions  that  produce  high concentrations  of particulate matter.   The




second  approach  uses  meteorological  data  actually  measured on  the specific




days  when  the particulate  matter sampling  was  conducted.  As a first  step,




both  approaches make  use  of the results  from the Level I  screening  dispersion




modeling  analyses to eliminate  insignificant  sources.  Because  of its superior




capabilities,  the best model for  both approaches  is  ISCST,  although  PTMTP,




PAL,   MFTER,  and  RAM could  also  be  used.   All  of  these  models  provide




individual source contribution  listings for  each  receptor.






                                      -108-

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    In the  first approach,  the  combined 24-hour  impacts of  multiple sources




are   obtained  using   a  methodology   patterned   after  the   treatment  of




meteorological data  in the  PTDIS model.   With  PTDIS,   1-hour  impacts  (of  a




single source) are calculated using an array of combinations of wind speed and




atmospheric  stability.   Likewise,  the  combined  24-hour  impacts of  multiple




sources can  be determined  using a representative array of combinations of wind




directions, wind speeds, and stabilities.




    Each combination of wind direction, wind speed,  and  stability is input to




the model  to obtain  a  1-hour average prediction.   The impacts  calculated for




1-hour  periods  are  assumed  to  be  representative  of  24-hour  periods.   This




simplifying  assumption  is  reasonable because the monitoring  site will receive




the  largest  24-hour  impact from  a given source  if the  wind  direction is




persistent.   However,  daily impacts will  be overpredicted,  primarily because




wind direction variability is greater than is assumed here.




    The  large number of wind speed/stability  combinations  in  PTDIS  must be




reduced  to  those  combinations  likely  to persist  for extended  portions  of a




24-hour  period.   Representative  combinations  are  shown   in  Table  4-6.   When




some  of  these wind speed/stability combinations are used  in the modeling  it is




necessary  to consider  the  variability in atmospheric  stability  during 24-hour




periods.   Neutral  ("D")  stability  conditions  occur  most often  and  can last



24-hours.  Unstable  ("A",  "B" and  "C">  conditions  occur only  in the daytime




and "Stable  ("E" and "F")  conditions  occur only at night.   Very unstable "A"




conditions are likely to persist for only a few hours during the day.




    Table  4-6 and  the  Level I screening modeling results may be used to select




the   wind   speed/stability  combinations   for   the  more  detailed  modeling




analyses.   The  PTDIS point  source  modeling  results and  the  area,  volume and




line  source  modeling results from  Level I are  used to  identify the 5  to 10
                                     -109-

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                                   TABLE 4-6









           COMBINATIONS  OF WIND SPEED AND STABILITY THAT ARE LIKELY




              TO PERSIST  FOR EXTENDED PORTIONS OF 24-HOUR PERIODS

tall
stack
sources
Wind
Speed
(m/s)
2
4
7
10
Pasquill Atmospheric Stability Classifications
Daytime Only Nighttime Only
B C D E F
/ V V / V
/ / /
Rural areas
only
highly dependent upon  the  source-receptor alignment relative to the input wind




direction.   A  small  difference  (10°)  in  wind  direction  can  produce  an




entirely different picture  of the magnitude  of the  source  impact at  a given




receptor.




    There  are two  ways to ensure  that the  effects  of wind  direction  are



adequately   considered.    Either  all   compass  wind   directions   (in  10°




increments) can be  modeled or only critical  wind  directions can be identified




and modeled.   The  critical wind directions will be  those associated  with the




sources  that  produce   large   impacts  at  the  monitoring site.    As  mentioned




previously, the Level  I screening modeling results may be used to identify the




5  to  10  sources  that have  the  largest  impacts.   In  many  cases,  important




sources  will  be  found to be  grouped  together   in one  or  two  geographic
                                     -110-

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sources  that have  the  largest  impacts  at  a  monitoring  site.   The  wind

speed/stability  combinations  selected for  further  modeling  are  taken  from

among  those  that produced  the highest impacts  from  those 5  to  10  sources.

Table  4-6 also  highlights  a  few  factors  that  can be  used  to guide the

selection of the most important wind speed/stability combinations.

    Of all the meteorological  parameters, modeled impacts  at  a given location

are most  sensitive  to wind direction.  The  relative  impact of each source is

sectors.   In that  event,   the wind directions  can  be input  to  the  model in

10° increments from those  sectors.   Alternatively,  the  exact source/receptor

alignment wind directions for selected sources can be  input to the model.

    Maximum  impacts can  be estimated using  just a  few  wind direction/wind

speed/stability  combinations   in  the   modeling.    For   the   critical  wind

directions identified  above, four combinations of wind speed and  stability are

suggested:

    •  low wind speed/unstable (B or C)
    •  low wind speed/neutral  
-------
    The  second  approach  to the  more  detailed  Level  II dispersion,  modeling



analysis  depends  on  meteorological  data  recorded  on  specific  days  when



particulate  matter  sampling  has  also  been  conducted.   This  approach  is



preferable if  comparisons  between measured  and dispersion-modeled  pollutant



concentrations  are anticipated.   If  the  meteorological  data  are  available,



this approach has  the  advantage  that the selection of  meteorological  input is



simple.   The  meteorological data  used in the model  must adequately represent



the actual meteorological conditions in the study area.   As  discussed earlier,



modeled  impacts  are  very sensitive to wind direction.   For  this reason alone,



when modeling only involves a single sampling day and a single receptor, there



is   little   likelihood   of    agreement   between   measured   and   modeled



concentrations.    The  use of additional receptors  in  close  proximity  to  the



monitoring site  will  illustrate  the sensitivity of  predicted  values  to wind



direction.



    As  mentioned  earlier,   it  is  often  important  to  be  able  to  determine



source/receptor   relationships  on  an  annual  average   basis.   A  number  of



dispersion models are available  for this purpose as  shown  in Table 4-4.  The



available models use  either an annual  stability  wind  rose  or a  full  year of



hour-by-hour  meteorological data  to  calculate annual  average source impacts.



Procedures for  using these models with  a  full year  of  data  are contained in



the respective model user's guides.








    4.4.4.3  An  Approach for Comparing Dispersion and Receptor Model Results



    Comparisons  between  receptor  and dispersion modeling  results can  provide



important insights  into  source-receptor  relationships.    The  two  analysis



approaches   use   different  input   information  and   incorporate  different



assumptions.    The  uncertainties   associated  with   each   approach   can  be
                                      -112-

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substantial, but the  similarities and differences between results from the two




methods can  often be  used to  identify  erroneous  or inadequate  data  and to




achieve more reliable dispersion model predictions.




    At the outset,  the key to  making  comparisons between  source (dispersion)




and  receptor  modeling  is  to  obtain  source  model  results  for  the  same




monitoring  periods  when  ambient  measurements  were  collected.   The  sampling




days  selected  for   the  analysis  should  represent  a variety  of  dispersion




conditions.  The uncertainties  associated with results from a single  day are




quite  large;  comparisons  of results for a larger number of  individual days (10




or 15  is  recommended  as  a minimum) are more  meaningful.   The dispersion model




used   in   these   analyses  must  provide  impact  predictions  for  individual




sources.  The  ISC models (ISCST  and  ISCLT)  are  best suited for  this purpose




because,  in addition  to  the features described  earlier, the  ISC models will




report  impacts for  selected groups  of  sources  as  well  as  for  individual




sources.  The  dispersion and receptor modeling results can  then be compared on




a source-by-source (or source group-by-source group)  basis.   Source groups are




defined  by  the  receptor  modeling results,  since receptor  modeling  does not




distinguish  among sources with  similar emission compositions.




    In the  event  that the  receptor model  results  agree with  the dispersion




model  results  on  a  source-by-source basis,  the  receptor model  analyses would



constitute  convincing evidence for  the  validity  of the  dispersion modeling




analyses  and vice-versa,  since each will have  been  conducted  independently.




(As discussed  previously,  receptor model source contribution results should be




established  using two or more  receptor  models.)   It  is  more likely  that the




source  culpability  information  provided by  the receptor  model  will  differ




considerably from that  provided  by  the  dispersion  model, particularly  for
                                     -113-

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fugitive dust sources.   In the latter case,  validated receptor  model results



can  be  used  to direct  a  re-examination of  the dispersion  model  inputs to



determine where inadequacies may exist.



    The process  of modifying  the  dispersion model  or model  inputs,  based on



comparisons   between   dispersion   model    predictions,    observed   ambient



concentrations,  and  receptor  modeling  results,  is  primarily  intended  to



identify and correct  errors  or shortcomings.   The purpose of  this exercise is



to obtain more  reliable,  technically supportable dispersion model predictions,



not  to  create   the   illusion  of   agreement  between   two   problem-solving



approaches.   If   reasonable  results  can   be   obtained   through  dispersion



modeling,  then  a  powerful  analysis  tool  is  available  for estimating  air



quality at  locations  other  than monitors and  for assessing  control strategy



options.



    The challenge  is  to  accomplish this  end in a  systematic fashion,  and to



minimize  the use  of  subjective,  trial-and-error  techniques.  One  effective



device  for  controlling  this  process  is  the use  of  a  "comparison protocol",



which defines  the  stepwise analysis procedures  to be followed once dispersion



model and  receptor model results are  obtained.   The protocol, prepared before



modeling is  performed,  anticipates areas of  possible disagreement between the



two  modeling approaches,  identifies the model inputs and  model features which



could  produce  such  disagreement,   and  outlines  the  decision   criteria  for



revising the inputs or the model.   Examples  of  the procedures such a protocol



might contain are  discussed below.   The concept  of  a model comparison protocol



is  defined  in  considerable  detail  in the EPA document  Interim Procedures for



Evaluating  Air  Quality  Models  (U.S.  EPA,  1981c).    This  document   describes



procedures  for comparing  the  performance of two  dispersion models and is not



entirely applicable to the present topic.
                                      -114-

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    There are a number  of  factors which cause dispersion  model  predictions to

disagree  with  measured  particulate  matter  concentrations.    Some  of  these

problems are source-specific, primarily  affecting individual source-to-monitor

impacts, while others are  more  likely to produce systematic or widespread bias

in the model predictions.  Examples of the former include:


    •  Erroneous emission  rates  caused by such  items  as  the  omission of
       unknown  sources  from  the  modeling  or  the  use  of  inaccurate
       throughput information.

    •  The use of  inappropriate  emission rates,  such as the  use of total
       particulate  matter  emission  rates  which  include   particle  sizes
       that settle out prior to impacting the monitoring site.

    •  Incorrect    information    concerning   daily    source   operating
       parameters.  For  example,  while a source may operate at 45 percent
       capacity on  an  annual basis, its actual  mode  of operation  may be
       at 90 percent capacity for 50 percent of the days in a year.

    *  Neglect  or  incorrect consideration  of  downwash  from tall  stack
       sources.

    •  Neglect or incorrect consideration of resuspended particles.

    •  Building interference  causing source-to-receptor (i.e., source-to-
       monitor)  geometry  to  be  incompatible  with  Gaussian  dispersion
       assumptions.

    •  Local meteorology differing from that modeled.  A  typical problem
       is  wind  direction  shift  or channeling  caused by  buildings  or
       topographic features.


    Examples  of  factors that  are not  addressed by the  dispersion  model  and

that may cause systematic biases  in model results include:


    •  Heat  island effects which  cause  the actual  near-source dispersion
       of elevated emissions to be greater than that modeled.

    •  Sea/land breeze effects.

    •  Effects caused by the fumigation of tall stack emissions.

    •  Effects  caused  by  the development  of  thermal internal  boundary
       layers   (TIBL)   over   areas   with   varying   surface   heating
       characteristics.
                                     -115-

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    There are also  potential  systematic and random biases  in receptor models.

Causes of such biases include:
    •  The selection of  ambient  sampler locations and  filter  samples for
       analysis   such   that  the  data  studied   are   not  spatially  or
       temporally representative of the real air quality.

    •  Incomplete  sampling  schedules  such  that  anomalous  events  are
       disproportionately  represented  in  the  data  base.  For example,
       samples may have been collected during periods  of emission control
       equipment  failure,  or, in contrast,  during periods when important
       sources were  not operating.   Conversely,  a  lack of such  samples
       would also bias the data base.

    •  Incomplete   or   inaccurate   information   on   source   emission
       compositions, or  the  existence  of  sources  with  similar emission
       compositions  such  that  the contribution  of one  source  cannot be
       distinguished from  that of another.

    •  Emission  transformations  where   the  amount  or  composition  of
       emissions  changes between  the source and  the  receptor.  Examples
       include particle  deposition rates  that  differ  among  the chemical
       components,   chemical  reactions   in  the   atmosphere,   and  the
       reentrainment of  emissions that have already been deposited.

    •  Ambient  sampling or  filter analysis deficiencies  where  the data
       collected  do  not accurately reflect what  is  in the air.  Examples
       include  disparate  collection  efficiencies  of  the  various   filter
       media,  artifact  formation  on  filters,  and  analysis  techniques
       that   only see  large particles, particles  on certain parts of the
       filters or certain  types of particles.

    •  Unrepresentative     meteorological    data.      Examples    include
       misoriented pollution roses and  upper air trajectory analyses with
       directional and distance errors.
     A three phase  process is  suggested to determine  the need for making  any

 changes  in the  dispersion model or  input parameters.   The first phase  involves

 taking steps to  eliminate obvious  dispersion model input  errors; the  second

 involves modifying the  dispersion model  based on receptor  model results  for

 those sources whose input parameters  are most certain; and  the  third involves

 the  systematic  comparison   of  predicted  with  measured   concentrations   to

 document model  performance.
                                      -116-

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    4.4.4.3.1  Phase 1.  Refine Emissions Inventory.   When large discrepancies

are  found  between   observed  ambient  concentrations  and  dispersion  model

predictions,  emissions data  are  the  first  item  to investigate.   Receptor

modeling  results  will  indicate the  contributions  from   different  sources to

observed  concentrations.    Comparison of  source  contributions  predicted  by
 •
receptor  and  dispersion  model  analyses  will  serve  to  focus  attention  on

individual  sources  or source  groups.   Additional test  data or  more detailed

engineering information can then provide a basis for inventory revisions.

    Phase 1 can be accomplished through the following  stepwise process:


    •  Identify  "significant"  sources or  source  groups  from  receptor
       model  results.  Sources  which  account for only a small fraction of
       observed ambient concentrations should not be investigated further.

    •  Assign a "level of confidence"  to emission  parameter estimates for
       each  significant  source or  source  group,  based  on engineering
       estimates  and on  receptor  model  results.   Table   4-7 illustrates
       the confidence  level information needed from this analysis.

    •  Obtain  dispersion  model  results.   Compare  source contributions
       predicted  by  dispersion and receptor models.   Identify  any large,
       systematic discrepancies between  source contributions from the two
       models.

    •  Re-examine   the   emissions    data    for   sources   with    large
       discrepancies.   Revise  the  inventory  through additional  source
       testing  or improved engineering  estimates,  where confidence  in
       existing data is low.


    Recognizing   that   substantial   uncertainty   in  particulate   emission

parameters  and  dispersion model predictions is  unavoidable for most urban or

industrialized  regions, this  Phase 1  effort  is  designed  to focus attention on

significant  sources  and   on  obvious  errors.   Analyses   should  be  based  on

multi-day  modeling  results,  rather than an  individual day,  since  dispersion

model  predictions for short-term  averaging periods can  be  very  sensitive to

small errors in plume  transport direction.
                                     -117-

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                                   TABLE 4-7
         ASSESSMENT OF CONFIDENCE IN DISPERSION MODEL INPUT PARAMETERS
                                     Source Number/Type/Name
Source-Specific Errors

 Emission rate                3     1      etc.

 Particle size
  characterization            2     1

 Source locations/dimensions  3     2

 Source operation parameters  1     3

 Downwash                     3     1

 Building interference        1

 Wind direction               2

 Other meteorology            3

 Other
  Key:

   0 = Least confidence  (in parameter or effect as modeled)
   3 = Greatest confidence (in parameter or effect as modeled)
                                      -113-

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    Confidence levels  for emission  parameters  should be  determined  prior to




dispersion modeling, to  minimize  the bias introduced by knowing in advance how




well  the  dispersion model  performs  for  any  given source.   Some  receptor




modeling  techniques also provide  quantitative estimates  of  the  uncertainty




associated with calculated source  contributions.   Model  performance evaluation




studies  for  dispersion   models  have  shown  that  uncertainties of  20  to 30




percent  are  common  for long-term average  concentrations  predicted at a given




monitor  location  (Londergan,  et  al.,  1983).   Efforts  to  identify serious




errors in the emission inventory should focus on  sources  with discrepancies of




at least a factor of 2 between receptor and dispersion model predictions.




    The  pattern  of discrepancies  at  different  receptors  may also aid in




identifying  potential  inventory errors.   For  example,  large overproduction by




the  dispersion  model at  a receptor very  close  to  the  source would suggest




possible errors  in  source geometry; large overprediction at receptors far  from




a  source would  suggest  an erroneous particle  size  distribution.   Experience




with  dispersion  models  and emission inventories will play an important role in




diagnosing potential inventory problems.




    The  protocol will  serve as  a check  on  the  subjective  process   described




above.   The  knowledge that  a discrepancy can  be  "fixed"  by  increasing the




emissions  of a  specific  source   is  not  sufficient grounds for  revising the



inventory.   Technical  justification will be required before  changes  are made.




Through  this process, however,  efforts can be focused on  the relatively few




sources  which are critical to dispersion model performance.








    4.4.4.3.2.   Phase  2.  Further  Dispersion  Model  Modifications.   After the




inventory   revisions  have   been   incorporated,    revised   dispersion  model




predictions  will be obtained.   The  revised source  contributions  predicted by
                                     -119-

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the  dispersion  model  are  again  compared  with  receptor model  results,  to



determine   whether  further   modifications   to  the   dispersion   model   or



meteorological  inputs  are  warranted.   For  this  comparison,  attention  is



focused on  sources  with  the highest confidence  rating  for emission parameters



and  receptor  modeling results.   Any  large,  systematic  discrepancies  between



dispersion  and  receptor  model predictions  for  these  sources  would indicate



shortcomings in either the receptor or the dispersion model.



    The protocol will identify,  in advance,  the limitations  inherent  in the



dispersion  modeling approach.   Such  limitations may  include  meteorological



inputs, assumptions concerning dispersion  rates, particle deposition, effects



of  surface  roughness  or  terrain,   effects  of  land/water  interface,  etc.



Remedial  measures could include  acquisition of  additional meteorological data



(if  available>,  choice  of  different  model   options,   or  modification  of



dispersion  algorithms to suit local conditions.



    The pattern  of model performance  at  different receptor  locations  and for



different   source  types   can   provide  useful   information  for   diagnosing



dispersion  model  shortcomings.  Once again,  however,  emphasis should be placed



upon  large discrepancies  between  dispersion   and  receptor  model  results,



recognizing the  uncertainties inherent in both  modeling  approaches.  Clusters



of   receptors,  placed  around   each  monitor,   can  be   used  to   assess  the



sensitivity of   dispersion  model   predictions   to   small  changes  in  plume



transport direction (and indirectly to indicate model  sensitivity to one cause



of  prediction  uncertainty).



     Model  modifications  should  be  undertaken  in  an  effort   to   improve



performance by incorporating  features  which  take into account  local  dispersion



conditions  and  source  characteristics.   Problem-specific model modifications



will often prove  a  cost-effective  alternative to  additional  sampling and



analysis.





                                      -120-

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    4.4.4.3.3   Phase  3.    Document   Dispersion  Model   Performance.    After




revisions  to the  emissions  inventory  and/or the  dispersion model  have been




implemented,  it  is  important to  document  model  performance using  available




monitoring  data.   Before  the dispersion  model is  used to  determine  control




requirements or  to assess  alternative  strategies,  the  uncertainty associated




with model  predictions should be understood.  For this  purpose,  observed and




predicted ambient  particulate matter concentrations  should be  compared, with




primary  emphasis  on  the   concentration  values  associated  with   air  quality




standards   (e.g.,  annual  average  and  peak  24-hour  concentrations).    The




comparisons  should not be  restricted to those days selected for receptor model




analysis,  but  should  include at least one  year of  ambient  monitoring  data.




The  meteorological  data   used  should  correspond  to  the  particulate  matter




sampling schedule.




    Detailed  recommendations concerning  model   performance  evaluation  are




contained  in the  reports  Judging Model  Performance, from  the 1980  American




Meteorological Society (AMS) Workshop (Pox,   1981), and  Interim Procedures for




Evaluating  Air Quality Models (U.S.  EPA,  1981c).   In the present  context,  a




limited   analysis   of  model  performance  is  envisioned,   rather  than  the




comprehensive statistical evaluation described in these  reports, but  the basic




analysis approach is quite  similar.




    Results  from  the performance evaluation  will provide  a  basis  for deciding




whether  to  rely  upon the dispersion model to formulate  control strategies, or




whether  to  use  monitoring  data  and  receptor  modeling  results.   If  the




dispersion  model  is  demonstrably reliable  at the monitoring  sites then model




predictions  can  be  made  for the  entire  study  area and control  strategies




should  be  developed  based  on the  model  results.   If the  dispersion model is




not  proven  reliable,  and  measured  concentrations   show nonattainment,  then
                                     -121-

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control strategies would be  developed based on the measured  data and receptor



modeling  results.   However,  in  this  case,  the  issue  of  the air  quality at



non-monitored  locations  must be  addressed.   If  the  monitoring  sites  are not



representative   of  the   entire   study   area,   based  on   dispersion  model



predictions,  then additional  monitors may  be  needed  at  locations  of  high



predicted impact  so  that additional receptor modeling analyses  can be used to



determine the source impacts at such sites.








    4.4.5  Resources



    Resources  required  for  Level  II  analyses  are  significantly  higher than



those  required for  Level  I.   At  least  a  mini-computer is  required  to run



programs, not  all of which are in  the public domain at this time.  Data bases



are large and require sufficient storage.   The analyses described here should



not   require   substantial   additional  monitoring,   but  it  will  usually  be



necessary to perform  a  variety  of  laboratory analyses on  existing samples.



Analysis  costs  will  range   from $25,000  to  $100,000.  Four  months  to one



man-year of effort will  be required.








4.5 Level III:  New Sampling, Analysis, and  Model Development



    The   frequent   need  to   solve  problems   associated   with  atmospheric



pollutants,  other  than  those materials collected   routinely   by  monitoring



networks,   requires   the  development  of   sampling   and  analysis   strategies



specifically   directed  to   the   individual   problem.    In  many  cases,   these



problems  can  be  explored  using  receptor models or  dispersion  models and can



use readily available  sampling  and analysis methodologies.   However,  sometimes



it may be necessary to  incorporate  vastly different approaches  into  the  study



design.   A  few examples  would be  programs to define the  sources of 1)  sulfate.
                                      -122-

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2) organic particulate matter, and  3)  the mass of material  in particular size




fractions.  For  each of the  above,  a  similar general approach  can be used in




the  design of  the  experiment;  however,  the details  for  each case  require




considerable discussion.




    The  following  is  structured  to  establish  general   criteria  for  the




development of Level III studies.








    4.5.1  Source Data




    As has been described  in  other  sections of this  volume,  and other volumes




of this  series,  a major concern is  the  availability and subsequent cataloging




of source emissions  data for  both receptor and dispersion models.   In Level I




and  II,  the  methodology for acquiring useful  information from existing source




emissions  data   bases   was  described.    However,   these   will  probably  be




inadequate  to address  many  specific  air  pollution problems because  all the




sources,  or  at  least the major sources,  in a particular study area  may have




only  been tested  for  a limited number of  parameters.   Furthermore, some data




bases were not designed to mimic the emission patterns  that  would more closely




represent  the physical  and  chemical  fractionations and transformations that




occur  in the environment  and are observed  in receptor  samples (for example,




sulfate  and  organic species).  Such  a  deficiency  is  important when  using a



receptor  model  to  allocate  the  percent  of mass associated  with a  source  or




when" trying  to  validate   the  model  with  some  contribution  estimates  from




appropriately parameterized dispersion models.




    The  first  stage of Level III is to  draw upon the previously acquired data




in  Levels I  and  II and  outline a  strategy  based  upon  the  strengths  and




weaknesses of available emissions  inventories.   At  present,  these data could




be augmented  by  conducting actual source tests similar  to  those normally used
                                     -123-

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in the  federal New  Source  Performance Standards  (NSPS)  or  National  Emission



Standards  for  Hazardous  Air Pollutants  (NESHAP)  programs,  but  adding trace



element and other  chemical  analyses  would  be  required  in the  development of



source  compositions  for  input  to  receptor  models.   In  most  cases,  the



particulate matter size  fractionation would not  have  been attempted,  and the



results would  be useful only if  the  chemistry of  the emissions  does  not vary



appreciably between size fractions.



    In  place  of the  above, the critical  question of  compatibility  of the



source  compositions  with those  perceived at  the receptor could  be addressed



using  dilution  sampling  or  platform  sampling  downwind of  plumes.   These



techniques  could also estimate  the  mass emission  rates under  a  variety of



operating  conditions.   A  selection  criteria for  the   sources  to be tested



should  be  established based upon 1)  the  adequacy of  cataloged  profiles  (with



concern  for   regional  differences   in   sources),  2)  the emission  rates  of



sources,  3)  the proximity  of the  source  to  the  receptor  site,  and  4) the



potential  hazard  associated  with   the  source.   Additional  source   testing



criteria  are  discussed in Section 2.2 of Volume  II of this  series  (U.S.  SPA,



1981b).



    Dilution  source  testing has been identified  as a method to  help  increase



the  possibility of  having  the  source  composition more  closely reflect  that



sampled at a  receptor.  It involves  cooling of  the  sampled  effluent  to  a



temperature   which  is  nearly   equivalent   to  that  found   in  the   ambient



environment  to  simulate  the conditions  under which condensation,  growth and



other reactions  of the emitted  species occur. A further distinct advantage  is



the  possibility  for sampling the diluted effluent  with techniques equivalent



to those  used at  the  receptor.   In the case of  particulate  matter,  the net



result  could  be  the development  of source  composition catalogs which  would  be
                                      -124-

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size classified and/or be able to capture more volatile  species.   As mentioned




in previous  volumes of this  series,  a present drawback  is  that  this sampling




is  still  in  the  development  stage.   Therefore,  a  standardized  sampling




methodology is not available as of this writing.




    Another approach  to the  collection of emissions  at conditions  which are




more nearly  equivalent to  those anticipated  at  a receptor  would be platform




plume  sampling.   In  the past,  this  methodology  has  been used in  dynamic




experiments  (Lagrangian coordinate system) where  the  production  and transport




of ozone  and secondary  particulate  species  were  studied in  both  urban and




power  plant  plumes.    However,  plume  sampling  can  be accomplished  in  an




Eulerian  experiment (fixed  coordinates)  by  measuring  the  plume  at a  fixed




point with a  suspended platform (skyhook, etc.)  near the receptor.  Obviously,




because  of the  expense, major sources  along the  prevailing wind  direction




should  be  of   prime   consideration  and  the  sampling  platform,  fixed  or




otherwise, must  have  collection devices which are nearly equivalent  to  those




used at  the  receptor.   Preliminary or informational studies on the anticipated




emissions should be completed so that the plume sampling  is  well focused.  As




stated previously,  the sampling should be size  selective  (one  or two stage)




for particulate  matter in order to accommodate future  regulatory requirements




and to differentiate between  the fine and coarse fraction compositions.



    In  some  types  of  studies,  ground  based  plume  studies  may  also  be




warranted.   This technique  will  be  quite useful for  receptor  sites located




near  major   automobile  and  truck   traffic  arteries,   farmlands  spraying




pesticides,  fugitive  dust  emissions,  and field burning activities.  Properly




outfitted vans  or temporary trailer monitoring stations  can be  used to  house




equipment.
                                     -125-

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    The  source  characterization  used in  Level  III  studies will  be directed



toward achieving the  most  representative compositions of  the  sources that can



affect  a receptor.   It will  combine information available  from Level  I and



Level  II activities  with  new  source  tests.   These  latter  tests  will  be



designed  to  be  conducted  at  conditions  more  closely  associated  with the



ambient environment.  To reduce  costs,  each should be conducted  at times when



ambient  samples are collected at the receptor and  the receptor is downwind of



the source.








    4.5.2  Meteorological Data



    The  Level I and  II approaches to source  or  receptor  modeling involve the



accumulation  of readily  available  meteorological  data  from  NWS,   State and



local  government   or  privately  operated stations.   In addition,  synoptic or



mesoscale  meteorological data  are  processed  via  computer  programs  to give



either  upper  air  or surface wind trajectories.   In many cases, this  is all the



resolution  that may  be required,  since these data  are  available  near most



major  urban centers.   For  multivariate receptor modeling techniques the same



resolution  is sufficient such that with  large  numbers  of samples (200-400),  it



will  be possible  to categorize  the  apportionment of a given species according



to  wind direction.    The  trajectory   analyses  will   also  prove   useful   in



attempting  to determine the  contributions of chemical or  other species from



local  versus  regional sources.



     In a Level III study  it  is possible  that the meteorological detail will



need  to be more extensive.   This  would be especially  important  in  situations



where  the influence of complex  terrain, sea  breezes or valley channeling will



distort the local  wind and atmospheric  conditions  to such an  extent that  the



Level   I  and  II   meteorological  data will be unreliable and comparisons  of
                                      -126-

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dispersion and receptor  models  will be difficult.   In  addition,  there will be




situations where the available meteorological stations are  too distant or, for




various reasons, are  not sufficiently representative of the study site.   It is




important  to  note that although  the  mass  balance  for  particulate  matter




requires  as  little  as  one  sample  to  estimate  the  percent  contribution from




individual sources, the  support data requirements are  significant.   Depending




upon the  location  of  the site, more  samples  will have to be  taken for various




meteorological conditions  to assess  the  frequency  and  magnitude  of sources




influencing an area.




    The Level  III  approach  to  meteorological data acquisition  will require




location  of  a meteorological  station either  at  or  in close  proximity to the




sampling  location.   For example,  in the  New Jersey  ATEOS  study   (Lioy and




Daisey, 1983)  the  monitoring sites were within 10 miles of an airport NWS site




which  eliminated  the  necessity for a local  meteorological  station.   It should




provide,  at  a  minimum, the types of meteorological  data available on the  local




meteorological data summary  provided by the NWS  from airport  sites  located in




the United States.  However it would be  advantageous to  also have data on the




mixing  height  and  the wind profiles at  altitudes  above  the  surface.    While




there  are various means  of obtaining  such data,  it  would  be  preferable to




install an acoustic sounder  at a suitable  location.  This  device is versatile



and will  provide  computerized  output of meteorological  information on a real




time  basis (continuous)  throughout the  day.  Indirect  measurements  made by




doppler   type  acoustic  sounders   include  the   wind speed,  wind  direction,




vertical  motion,  standard deviation of vertical  motion,  horizontal  components




of turbulence,  and echo strength (proportional to the temperature structure of




the atmosphere).   In  addition,  with the  use of appropriate  algorithms, the




echo strength can  be  converted  to mixing height.
                                     -127-

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    These  devices  can  be operated  for  long durations,  as  long as  there is



proper maintenance  and periodic  review of  the  data.  The  mixing  height and



wind parameter  data from  the acoustic  sounder  will in  fact  provide a useful



way to estimate  the burden  of atmospheric  pollutants  of local  origin versus



the amount associated  with  the  regional background pollutant concentrations



(Gaynor, 1977).








    4.5.3  Ambient Data



    4.5.3.1  Size Selective Sampling for Particulate  Matter



    As stated previously  (Levels  I  and II)  the majority  of  available data for



particulate  matter  has  involved the  total  mass  collected  on  a  hi-vol or



dichotomous sampler.   The hi-vol  has a nominal  50  percent  cut size  of  30-40



]om  which  indicates  that  large  quantities  of coarse materials  (perhaps  from



fugitive dust sources) will be collected.



    Over the  period extending from 1973-1983, an  increasing number of  studies



has been conducted by various organizations in  which size  selective  sampling



of  the  particulate mass has  been completed  and  composition data reported.  In



many  cases,  a  dichotomous sampler with a  2.5  \x&  and  15  pm  50  percent cut



size  was  used  for fine  (respirable)  and coarse  particles.   This appeared to



help differentiate  sources in the specific cases  used for source apportionment



studies  (Dzubay,  1980;  Kneip,   et  al.,  1983;  and  Dzubay,   et  al.,  1983.)



However,   size  selective  inlet  samples   (15   \aa   cut  size),   multi-stage



impactors, two-stage cyclone filter samplers  and various other techniques have



been used  to  collect particulate  mass  samples.



    These  samples  are collected on filter media  which are then processed by  a



variety   of   techniques   for  elements,   inorganic  compounds   and   organic



compounds.  An up-to-date review of filter  media  and the concerns  for sampling



and analysis  has been  published by Lippman (1983).






                                     -128-

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    Unfortunately, an  all purpose  sampler  has  not  been developed;  however,



several  observations  can  be  made.   If  the  intent  of the  studies  to  be



conducted is  on sources  of  sulfate,  total  carbon  or size  fractions  of  the



particulate mass, the  dichotomous  sampler would be  the  common sampling device



used for air  pollution measurements.  However, if the concern  is  for species



which  need  large  quantities of  samples  in order  to be above  the detection



limit,  such  as polycyclic  aromatic hydrocarbons or other organic  species,  a



different sampler with the  appropriate size selective  inlet  would be required



for the study.








    4.5.3.2  Time Resolution



    This  aspect  of  sampling  is  always  difficult  to  judge  precisely.   The



purist would want to have a  continuous record or at  least frequent samples in



a  given day.   The pragmatist must  make a cost effective  compromise.   What is



actually necessary  is good  planning, based upon the type  of  the pollution



problem suspected as  well as the modeling techniques to be used for the source



apportionment  studies.   Traditionally,   24-hour  sampling periods  have  been



found  to be  adequate for measuring the particulate matter levels and long-term



variations and trends  in an area.



    In  the  case of   24-hour samples,  a large  number of  samples  (>50)  are



required to conduct  multivariate analyses.  In addition,  these would  have to



be  either spaced over the seasons of  the year or conducted in the same season



over a  number of years.  For mass  balance techniques, much fewer  samples  are



required  because  the   mass   balance  analysis  can  be performed  on  a  single



sample.  The  number of  samples required  is determined by  the extent  of  the



need to assess the problem on a 24-hour or annual basis.
                                     -129-

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    Alternatively,  to  focus  on one  particular source  or to  examine  diurnal



differences, a series of shorter duration samples  could be taken  (from one to



six hours  in  duration).   Stricter  requirements will then  be  necessary for the



meteorological support data,  and appreciation of seasonal differences  must be



noted  in  the  sampling strategy.   In addition,  these  short-term  samples must



contain enough material  (mass of  particulate matter)  to  make is  possible to



perform gravimetric and chemical analyses.



    Finally, in all receptor modeling studies that have  used  catalogued source



profiles,  the  adequacy of those profiles  for representing emission conditions



during the  sampling period is always a  serious  consideration.   Therefore, any



new source test should be done as close to the time of sampling as possible.








    4.5.3.3  Composition Determination



    The  previous volumes  in  this series  and other  articles,  including the



results of the Quail Roost Workshops I and II have discussed, for possible use



in receptor models, a number of species and their  limits of detectability.  In



Volume  II  of this  series,  much  time  was  spent on  species which should be



determined for   the  mass  balance  technique.   However,  the  use  of   other



approaches  including  multivariate  modeling  and  electromicroscopic  identi-



fication  would have  different requirements.   To compound  this  problem, the



Level  III approach  may  deal with some  very  unusual  problems.  Therefore, the



selection of  -the correct list of  species  for analysis may require  substantial



information  gathering   studies  prior   to the  development  of  an analytical



protocol.
                                      -130-

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    4.5.3.4  Prioritization of Chemical Analysis

    After selection of  the  variable (dependent) to  be apportioned,  a variety

of chemical analyses  will  be completed on the  collected samples.  The optimum

situation would be  analysis for all species associated  with the  sources that

potentially will  affect  the  site.   However,   some  caution must  be  exercised

since this approach may,  in fact,  ignore a  source that was not  identified in

Level I or Level II studies.

    Prioritization  of the  analyses  to be completed is a  necessity  for cost

controls,  and  those  species  selected  must,   in  many  ways,  be  tied  to  the

objectives of the Level III study.

    The case  of particulate mass sampling (total  or size  fractions)  is a good

example from which to develop some general analytical guidelines.
    •  Farticulate  Mass:    Since   this  is  the  dependent  variable  in
       receptor models,  and the objective of source/dispersion  models it
       must  be measured.   In traditional  studies,  it was  TSP; however,
       this measurement  could be of a  particular  size selected fraction.
       (In   other   cases,   the  material   to   be   apportioned  could  be
       S04 "2, carbon, organic compounds, etc.).

    •  Trace  Elements:   A  majority  of  the  information  that  has  been
       obtained  from  previous  receptor  modeling  has  come  from  trace
       element  source  signatures.   These  will  be  of  great necessity in
       any  Level  III  study.   In  fact, these  data will be  required for
       both source  and  ambient samples  since  size  selected  studies will
       probably  become   more frequent  in the  future   and  relatively few
       particle size fractionated source test results are available.

       Methods  for  elemental  analysis  described  in  previous  volumes
       indicate  that the  multi-element  approach  (as  opposed  to  unique
       tracers)  seems  to  be  the  most  effective.  For  each  study,  the
       method  of  choice  must be  critically  evaluated  to  prevent  the
       exclusion  of a  major  element   from  the analysis.   Morphological
       studies  may also   be  necessary  to  further  assist   in  source
       identification (see Volume IV, U.S. EPA, 1983b, for details).

    •  Inorganic Ions:   In most instances, except  those  where one  source
       dominates  the  collected  particulate mass, various   anions   (and
       their   cations)   will   comprise  significant   portions  of  the
       particulate   mass.    Therefore,   the   immediate  thought   is  to
                                     -131-

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incorporate them into  a  receptor modeling  study.   Before  this is
done,  however,  the  partitioning  between  primary  emissions  and
secondary products,  and  the  fractionation  according  to  particle
size  must be  considered.  Differentiation will  assist  in  local
versus  distant source  allocations.   To accomplish   the  task,  a
Level III study may require a large amount  of  ambient samples and
meteorological data for the development  of  multivariate models and
before  such  information  can  be  used  in  a  mass balance  study.
Without partitioning of  the local and regional  contributions,  the
primary value  of the  ion data will be for  composition rather than
apportionment  of sources.   In  the case  of  inorganic   ions  such as
sulfate,  the  combined use  of  dispersion and  receptor models will
be advantageous in helping differentiate local contributions.

Organic Matter:  There are a number of different levels from  which
to approach the use of total organic matter  or individual organic
compounds in a receptor model.

-  Extractable Organic Matter  (EOM):   Depending upon  the  fraction
   of EOM examined,  the  extractable mass data can give information
   on  primary organic  material   and   potentially  on  secondary
   organic  material.   These types  of data are useful  in further
   defining  the  sources  of  the material   affecting  a  receptor.
   However, these  data may in fact be more effectively used as the
   dependent  variable  in  an  organic  particulate  matter  source
   apportionment model.

-  Organic    Carbon/Elemental    Carbon/14C:     These    data    are
   available  from  previously  described  analytical  techniques,  and
   can  be used for assisting  in the  apportionment of particulate
   mass  in  the atmospheric samples.   Emission tests  and ambient
   sampling    can   be   completed   for   carbonaceous   material.
   Therefore,  if these data can be obtained  in  the same samples as
   the  trace  elements, the ability to differentiate sources may be
   extended.   A   particularly   promising   tracer    is   that   of
    14C/12C,    which   may   be    useful    in    identifying    the
   contribution   of   "contemporary"   carbon   sources,    such   as
   woodburning in  fireplaces and stoves.

   As  in the  case  of  EOM,  these  materials  can also be used as the
   dependent   variable  in  a   receptor   model   if  the appropriate
   emission  inventories  are  available  for  use in a  mass balance
   model.  However,  a thorough catalog  of  sources would  not  be a
   requirement for use in  a multivariate model  apportionment study.

-  Polycyclic  Aromatic Hydrocarbons  (PAH):   Because  PAHs found in
   airborne particulate matter are  the most carcinogenic  component
   in animal  bioassays,  they may present major concern to the
   public health.   However, for  apportionment  studies, they can be
   used  in three  ways:   1}  specific PAHs  can be used as tracer
   variables   for   combustion  processes;  2)   as  the   dependent
   variable  in a  receptor model or  3)  as  an emissions term  in a
   dispersion model.   Depending  upon the type  of  data (source and
                               -132-

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          ambient)  either mass  balance, factor  analysis or  multivariate
          target  transformation or  multiple regression  techniques  can be
          used to analyze these  data in receptor models.

          One  caution  which  must  be  mentioned  on  this  topic  -  the
          partitioning  of  each PAH between the gaseous  and particulate
          phase must be considered  before  it  is used in a receptor model
          or  dispersion  model.   In some  cases,  such as  Benzo-a-pyrene
          (BaP),  this may be insignificant.  However,  for  other compounds
          a  temperature  dependence may be apparent  and will  affect  the
          validity of any apportionment conducted.

    •  Other  Materials:   Most  of  these  may be available  from  routine
       monitoring  data,   and  can  be  useful   either  as   the  dependent
       variable or as  further qualitative  information to  define  sources.
       The   primary   species   include:    CO,    SQz,   N0«,  Os   and  HC.
       However, in the future,  volatile organic compounds will  probably
       gain  in importance  from  the  point of  view of  toxic substances,
       photochemical smog precursors,  and as source signatures.


    4.5.4  Procedures (Level III)

    It  is assumed  that Level  I  and  Level  II and what  has been discussed

previously in Level III is in place, or is available for  use.  In  designing a

source/dispersion  modeling  study,  one would  select  the monitoring network

which  most closely  reflects  the  majority of  source-meteorological  factors

(such  as prevailing winds,  sea  breezes,  etc.)  that may  be  encountered  in a

region.  Thus, the maximum  number  of  sites would be  dependent on  a  coverage

factor  for  the   area   source,   frequency  of  meteorological  conditions  and

strength of source.

    Unfortunately, the case is not as simple  for a  receptor site  which would

be an  impact site  for  individual sources  that  are  examined  by the dispersion

model.  Such  a site  can be influenced by many different sources depending upon

the  season or daily  meteorological  conditions.   A  major  concern would  be

coverage by  secondary  sites surrounding the primary receptor site.   Sometimes,

if a  large urban area  is to be studied,  more  than one  receptor  site  could be

chosen  since  each may  be  representative of different activities of the area.

For  instance,   the  sites   could  be  distributed   in  downtown  commercial.
                                     -133-

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residential, or industrial areas.  Obviously, in each  case,  a different aspect



of an  air pollution  problem will be  examined and the  final selection of the



number  of   sites   would  be   dependent  upon  the   overall  goals   of  the



investigation.   For  instance,  the  sites  selected for  examining TSP  or some



size  fraction  in  an  urban  nonattainment  area  might  not  necessarily  be



equivalent to  a  site  where there  is a  potential  impact of hazardous materials



in a  residential section.   For a TSP  or PM10  study, two  or three  sites  at



different locations may be warranted.    In  the latter case,  one or  two sites



may be used as the receptors in the same neighborhood.



    Once  the  primary  site or sites  are  selected,  of  utmost  importance  is the



selection of  a rural  site located on level terrain away from significant local



sources and  meteorological perturbations.   These  sites must provide coverage



for  the  dominant  wind  directions;  however,  in  many  cases,  at   least  two



"upwind"  sites,  i.e.,  along   the dominant  wind  paths,   should be  required



although  anywhere  from  1 to 4 sites are  conceivable.  Under no circumstances



should the study be done  without at  least one background site.



    A  primary consideration   at  the   rural  sites   is  the  travel  time  and



technician time  needed to obtain the samples  used for determining regional or



background  levels  of  pollutants.  Obviously,  the  major   species  should be



measured  as  should  the  major  tracers.  Beyond  that,  it  depends  upon the



availability of resources.  The optimum situation would include completion of



the same  set  of analyses  on  the background and urban  samples  (receptor).



    The  sampling  duration and sampling frequency  will  have been  determined



prior  to site selection; however,  there should  be  some flexibility  in the



design.   It may be necessary  to  adjust the sampling  schedule if a  major event



occurs,  unexpected results begin  to appear, or  unanticipated problems  arise.



Crucial  in  all  these  studies  is  the development  of an adequate sampling and
                                      -134-

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analysis  quality  assurance  program.   Without  this  type of  control  on the

study, the results may be less than adequate for use  in  model development.  In

essence,  error  terms must be  minimized.  EPA  guidance on  the preparation of

quality assurance plans is contained in a document  entitled Interim Guidelines

and Specifications  for Preparing  Quality Assurance  Project  Plans,  (U.S. EPA,

1980c).

    The  final aspect  of this  study  design is  the  model  development  and a

number  of a priori  issues  must be  considered.  At  a minimum  for  dispersion

model  validations,  the cases  selected require short  duration  samples and the

periods  chosen  should  adequately reflect the emissions  inventory or operating

parameters  that could  be in  effect  at that  time.  Thus,  for  example, the

analytical protocols could involve the following steps:


    •   Dispersion  models  are  to  be  run  using  the   source  emission
         inventories developed in Level III.

            Selection of  meteorological  parameters  corresponding to those
            observed during the sampling study.

            Selection   of  emission   conditions   which  would  closely
            approximate  the  emission  strengths that  occurred  during the
            sampling period.

    •   Complete a  mass balance or microscopic analysis  on  a  particular
         sampling day (or on days selected to represent an  annual average).

            Select  a sampling  day during which the  source is more nearly
            upwind of the receptor site.

         -  Complete mass balance or microscopic analysis  on that day and
            estimate mass contributions.

    •   Compare  the dispersion model  source contributions  with those of
         the receptor model.   Those contributions estimated by  each model
        which  do not differ  by more than the  sum  of their uncertainties
        are  consistent.   This  consistency  provides  a   good   basis  for
         justifying  a  control   strategy  applied  to  these  sources.   The
         dispersion  model  may  be re-run for  individual  sources  within one
        of  these source  categories  to specify which  one  might result in
         the greatest pollution reduction per dollar spent.
                                     -135-

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    •   If  source  and receptor model  results  differ by more than  the  sum
       of  their uncertainties, the data on which  both operate need to  be
       refined.   The nature of this  refinement is  often  indicated by  the
       model  results.

       -    If the receptor model identifies  a  source contribution which
            wasn't included  in  the   emission  inventory  for  the source
            model,  an  inventory  for  that source must  be  carried  out.
            Wood  burning  (Core,  et  al.,  1982)  was  discovered as  a major
            source by this procedure.

       -    If the receptor model finds a  "downwind" source to be  a major
            contributor,  meteorological  inputs to the  source model should
            be examined and improved.

            If all source  type  contributions calculated  from the source
            model  are high or low with  respect  to the receptor model,  the
            source model   should  be   re-run   with  revised  or  corrected
            stability and mixing  height  data.

            If model  calculations differ  by  a factor or  two or  more,  the
            emission   factors  and  positions of  the  gridded  emissions
            inventory  for the  source  model should  be  double  checked.
            Alternatively, additional  source characterization tests  for
            the receptor  model  may need  to  be  made.  By confining  these
            activities to  major contributors with  major  discrepancies,
            the work can  be  focused with  great savings of  effort over
            verifying all source  emission  rates  and  compositions.

    •  When the  data have been  refined, both models should be re-run  and
       the two preceding bulletad  steps should  be repeated.

    •  If comparisons are still inadequate  for decision-making  purposes,
       and if the cost of a wrong  decision merits  it,  artificial  tracers
       may be introduced into  the  questionable  emissions,  simultaneous
       measurements  may  be  made at  both the  source and receptors,  and
        source and receptor models may be  re-run  to identify where  the
       discrepancy  lies.   The  basic assumptions  and structure  of  the
       models may have to be modified as  a  result.


    Concurrently,   the  mass  balance  results  should  be  intercompared  with

studies that  use  any one of a number of  microscopic  techniques.   Comparisons

with  other  mathematical  techniques  such  as   factor  analysis  or  multiple

regression, or combinations o£ techniques  such as target  transformation factor

analysis,    or factor  analysis  with  multiple  regression,  may  be   useful.

Conversely, if microscopic methods  are  the primary receptor models  used, they

should  be  intercompared  with  mathematical methods.   In these cases,  the
                                     -136-

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sources'  contributions  to a  percentage  of the  mass will  be  determined.  The




results must be compared for consistency and errors.








    4.5.5  Resources




    Resource  requirements for  level III  are  large.   A  mini- or  main frame




computer  will  probably  be  needed  to  store  data  files   and  to  operate




comprehensive  programs.   Since  new sampling  programs  will be  conducted,  the




requirements for monitoring  equipment,  personnel and laboratory  analyses will




be   sizeable.    Manpower  requirements  may   encompass   man-years  and  study




durations can  extend to  a  year or  more.   Costs will  range  from $100,000 to




over $1,000,000.








4.6 Summary of the Three Level Approach




    Studies  conducted  to  determine  contributions  to  measured particulate




matter concentrations  can require  different   levels of  effort.   The  level of




effort required in  each  case will  depend on the  nature and  extent  of  the




problem  and  on the amount  of  information   already  available.   This volume




organizes  the  analyses  used  to solve  source apportionment  problems  into  a




three  level  format.   Table  4-8  summarizes the  various  aspects  of  the three




levels of  study.   The  three  level  format is  flexible  and the  information in



Table  4-8  should not be  rigidly confined to  each  study  level.   In real world




applications,  there  may be intermixing of components of  the  three  levels  due




to data and resource availability.




    Two items  are applicable  to all three study  levels.   First,  an analysis of




background  concentrations  is  an  essential  preliminary  step  to the  other




analyses in  each level, and  second, two  or more source  apportionment methods




should  be  employed, if possible,  at  each level  in order to provide greater




confidence in  the study results.






                                     -137-

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-------
5.0 CASE STUDIES OF COMPOSITE SOURCE APPORTIONMENT METHODS

    There  are  a   significant   number  of  examples  where  composite  source

apportionment methods  have been  used effectively to  answer questions  on the

degree to  which various  source  categories cause a  nonattainment situation or

other  air  quality situation  of  interest.   These  studies  cover  the  full

spectrum of  complexity from Level  I  to  Level III,   Since  the dividing lines

between the three levels of complexity are not clear cut,  it follows that many

of the case  studies may contain analyses  that  might logically be part of more
                          4
than one complexity level.

    The  following   case  studies   exemplify the three  levels of  complexity of

composite source apportionment methods.




5.1 Use of Microscopy and Filter Analysis  (Level I)

    Drafts,  et  al., (I960)  of  the  Illinois  Institute of  Technology Research

Institute  (IITRI)  have developed a  protocol using  microscopic identification

of particles  collected on hi-vol filters  supplemented by chemical analyses of

the  filter deposits to  apportion the  collected  particles  to various  source

categories.

    Polarized light microscopy is the principal tool used to identify particle

sources  based  upon the   previous  microscopic  analysis  of particle  samples

collected from various sources.   X-ray diffraction may also  be  used to provide

positive  identification of  mineral  species  and scanning  electron microscopy

may be used for identification of extremely small particles.

    Low  temperature ashing  is  used  to determine the organic content  of the

collected  particles.   Ion chromatography is used to determine the  anions and

cations present, and depending  on the nature  of  the study, elemental analysis

of samples may be carried out using x-ray  fluorescence.
                                     -140-

-------
    Data are presented  in  terms  of percent  contribution of  source  categories



such  as  combustion,  specific  metallurgical operations,  road  traffic,  and



biological aerosols.








5.2 Linn County, Iowa Non-Traditional Fugitive Dust Study (Level I)



    A recently  conducted study by Brookman  (U.S. EPA,  1983d) investigated the



primary non-traditional sources  affecting the air quality  in and around Cedar



Rapids,   Iowa   (Linn  County).    The   approach  used   for  this  study  was,



essentially, the Level  I protocol involving many of the analysis discussed in



Section 2.3.7.



    The data base used for this  study  included existing source, meteorological



and   ambient   data.    The  source   data  were  in   the  form   of  existing



microinventories  around the  five county monitoring  stations and  one  rural



background  station,  a  point  source  inventory performed by  the  local agency,



and a "first-cut" area  source inventory (part of this study was to update this



inventory  and then  use the results  for  the nonattainment  study).   The source



data  were  supplemented with  topographic  maps,  aerial photographs, and  an



industrial  fugitive  source inventory (performed as part of the project).  The



meteorological  data  were   obtained  from the  Cedar  Rapids  Airport in  the



standard  form  of  LCD's  (Local   Climatological  Data Summaries).   The ambient



data  were obtained  from  the State  authorities  and consisted of  seven years



(1976  - 1982)  of hi-vol data collected at  the one  background and five county




stations.



    The  first step  of  the protocol  was  to visit the monitoring  sites to get  a



"feel"   for   local   contributing   sources,  topographic   anomalies,  siting



characteristics,  etc.   The  second  step was  to  evaluate  the  meteorological



data.   This  included  determining wind persistence  for  each of  the sampling
                                      -141-

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days during the  seven year period and noting  precipitation and snow  cover on



and  preceding  the  sampling  days.   The  third  step  was  to determine  the



background level for  each year of the  study period.   This was done  by using



the  rural  station hi-vol  data.   This  level was  found to be  highly variable



from year to year, in direct correlation with the  amount  of precipitation for



that year (in fact, a linear relationship was shown to exist).



    The next step in the protocol was to perform a  trend analysis  (see Section



2.3.7)  and  remove the  background  influence  (thus  effectively  removing  the



meteorological  influence).   The  resulting  trend plots  for the five  stations



showed  definite  anomalies at  certain stations  during certain years.  Further



analyses were  performed  to try and discover the reasons  for  these anomalies.



First,  the  modeled  point  source  influences  were  removed  from  the  yearly



averages (the  State  has  performed ISC modeling  and  information was available



on  the  relative monitor  impact for each year).   Second,  pollution roses were



developed  based  on  days with  persistence  greater  than  0.71   (see  Section



2.3.7).  A pollution  rose  was also  developed for  the background station and



its  influence was removed from the county station pollution roses.



     Using  the   results  of  these  basic  analyses   in  conjunction  with  the



topographic  maps,  aerial  photographs,  site visits,  discussions   with  County



officials,  etc.,  probable  causes  for  the  nonattainment  status  of several



monitoring  stations  were uncovered.   The  principal  findings of  the  study



showed  that  highway construction was the principal cause of TSP  violations at



several stations throughout  the years,  industrial  fugitive sources  contributed



several micrograms per cubic  meter to a few  stations,  and vehicle traffic on



paved and  unpaved roads  contributed  heavily  to  most  of the  stations.   The



results also  showed that there was a  general  downward trend  in the TSP levels



throughout  the county throughout the years as  a  result   of  control programs
                                      -142-

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(street cleaning, paving) and the economic recession  (several  large industries

had cut back their operations significantly).

    The  results  of this  study,  which  was  conducted  entirely using  existing

data, were  very helpful  to the  local  authorities in  planning future control

strategies (particularly in regard to construction projects).   Example results

for one  of  the five monitoring sites are shown in Table 5-1.   While the Level

I  approach  could  not   determine  exact  levels  of  source  contributions  or

distinguish  between  several fugitive  sources  in  the  same   area that  were

probably affecting  a  monitoring station,  it did provide the  authorities with

all of  the  information  they desired.  The next logical step for further source

contribution  quantification  would  have  to  entail  microscopic  analyses  of

filters and/or directional sampling.


                                   TABLE 5-1

               ESTIMATED SOURCE IMPACTS AT ONE LINN COUNTY, IOWA
             MONITORING LOCATION  (EQUIVALENT GEOMETRIC MEANS ug/m3)

                                                Year
Source Type
Background
Traditional:
Stack
Fuel Combustion
Solid Waste Disposal
Auto Exhaust
Annual Recorded Mean
Non-Traditional Impact
1976
47.0
8.3
1.0
2.1
2.7
98.3
37.2
1977
38.6
8.8
1.0
2.1
2.7
109.3
56.1
5.3 Allegheny County Particulate Study
1978
37.9
3.3
1.0
2.0
2.7
90.6
38.2
(Levels
1979
35.8
3.8
1.0
1.8
2.7
95.0
44.9
I and
1980
40.7
3.3
1.0
1.7
2.8
106.5
51.5
ID
1981
36.5
3.3
1.0
1.5
2.8
80.0
29.4

1982
26.0
3.8
1.0
1.4
2.8
60.9
20.9

     A study  was carried  out  in  Allegheny County  (Yocom, et  al.,  1979,  and

 Brookman  and Yocom, 1980) to  investigate  the  particulate matter  nonattainment

 problem   in  the county  and  to   determine  the  types  of  sources  primarily


                                      -143-

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responsible for  the  nonattainment situation.  Of particular  interest were the

relative contributions of the following types of sources:


    •  Traditional - Industrial point and process fugitive sources.

    •  Non-Traditional - In-plant open sources such as  roads  and material
       piles  and   non-industrial  sources  such  as   public  roads  and
       playgrounds.

    •  Background - Natural sources and sources outside the county.


    This  study  was   an  example  of  a composite  source  apportionment  method

applied principally  to  available TSP  data collected by the County  Bureau of

Air  Pollution  Control.   Most  of  the  methods  described  in Section  2.3.7

(Preliminary or  Qualitative  Receptor Models) were applied to  this  'data base.

Dispersion modeling  using  a  version of PAL  together  with a detailed inventory

of  traditional   and  non-traditional  sources at  the  large,  integrated  steel

mills was  used  to predict specific contributions of  these sources on selected

sampling sites.

    Background  levels of particulate matter were determined  by the "composite

particulate rose" method described in Section 2.3.7 and applied equally to all

sampling sites in the county.

    The  assumption  was  made  that   the   industrial   component  of  measured

particulate matter  at stations  near the  steel  mills  was  made up entirely of

steel   mill  contributions.    These   stations   constituted   most  of   the

nonattainment  stations.   A  variety  of  techniques   (e.g.,  pollution  roses,

wet/dry day analysis, microinventories,  etc.) was used to infer  the relative

contribution  of  traditional  and non-traditional  sources  for  the remaining

sampling stations in the county.

    Special short-term sampling runs using  Millipore filters were carried out

at   several   of  the  sampling  sites   under   predetermined   meteorological
                                     -144-

-------
conditions.   These  samples  were  subjected  to  automated  scanning  electron



microscopic and  energy dispersive x-ray analysis  (SEM/EDAX)  to determine the



chemistry of  the  selected particles  in  relation  to  particle size.   By making



certain  assumptions  on  the  contributions  of traditional  and non-traditional



sources  to specific  particle  chemistries  it  was  possible  to  reconcile the



dispersion modeling-plus-background source  apportionment results with those of



the particle  identification studies.



    Using  estimated   predictions  of  future  reductions  in  emissions  from



traditional and non-traditional industrial  sources,  the  number of nonattaining



stations   decreased   and  strategies   could  be  developed  for  bringing  the



remaining  nonattaining stations into  an attainment  status  by  application of



controls on various categories of non-traditional sources.



    The  actual contracted cost for   this • study  was  about  $60,000  in  1978



dollars.   However it  should be pointed out that  the  contractor served  as a



consultant and management contractor and was  asked to  utilize  much available



data  and  systems.    One  important   feature  was  that  5  years of  TSP and



meteorological  data  were already up on  a  large  computer  and were  readily



accessible  for   a  variety  of  manipulations.   Furthermore,  the   dispersion



modeling and  steel mill  inventory were carried  out  by another contractor  under



the  sponsorship   of  a steel company  consortium,  and the special sampling and



SEM/EDAX work was funded  directly  by the  county with  yet  another  contractor



group.   Thus  the total costs for the  project were estimated to be in the  range



of $300-500,000.








5.4  Portland  Aerosol  Characterization Study (Level  III)



     The  Portland Aerosol  Characterization Study  (PACS,  Cooper, et  al.,  1979;



Watson,  1979; Core,  et al.,  1982)  is a  classic example  of a Level III study.
                                      -145-

-------
Its purpose was to quantify the major contributions  to TSP concentrations
which were in violation of the NAAQS.  It involved the following elements:

    •  Creation and  use of  a site  specific air  quality dispersion model
       (Pabrick and Sklarew, 1975).

    •  Multiple site  meteorological  monitoring to  create a  complex wind
       field.

    •  A site specific gridded emissions inventory for one year.

    •  A  comprehensive  study design  and preparation  (Mueller,  et al.,
       1977).

    •  Meteorological  regime  stratification  of  sampling  schedules  to
       minimize costs while still representing an entire year.

    •  Characterization  of  all  major  source  emissions  with  respect  to
       particle size and chemical composition.

    •  Time,  space,  size, and  chemical  resolution  of  ambient suspended
       particulate matter.

    •  Identification  and  quantification of  major sources  by  the mass
       balance receptor model.

    •  Comparison  of  mass  balance  and  dispersion  model  results  and
       adjustments to each.
    One of  the unique aspects of  the  PACS was  the interaction  of  the source

and receptor  models to reinforce  each  other.   The emissions inventory created

for the  dispersion model  was used  to  identify  the most  likely  sources for

emissions characterization.   By its estimates of  likely ambient  concentrations

and   variability  with  wind   direction,   it   allowed   necessary  analytical

requirements   (detection  limits)  and sample   durations   to  be  estimated.

Initially,  mass  balance  calculations  did  not  agree  with  dispersion   model

results.   An  examination  of the  emissions  inventory resulted in corrections

and results  of the two  models  did agree  within  reasonable  margins  for  error

(Core,  et al.,  1982).   Control strategy  options  were  outlined which probably

would not have  been  proposed without  the results  of  the  PACS.   Several of

these  options  are being implemented and it appears  that Portland's air quality

is improving.


                                     -146-

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    Because of the  in-kind  donations  and development work which  went into the



PACS,  it  is  difficult  to  estimate  its  total  cost.   Estimates  range  from



$300,000 to $1,000,000.  The cost of misplaced controls is agreed to have been



much higher than the upper limit of the cost of the study.
                                      -147-

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6.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

6.1 Summary

    It should  be apparent  from this technical document  that,  considering the

state-of-the-art of  receptor and  source (dispersion)  modeling  and composite

source apportionment  methods, there are no  fool-proof step-by-step procedures

or recipes  for  studying particulate matter apportionment  and making decisions

on  the results.  Nevertheless,  there are a large  number of useful  tools to

assist the  air  resource manager in carrying out  such studies.   The selection

and application of these tools will depend on:


       Objectives of the study.
       Resources available.
       Technical expertise and innovativeness of the project team.
       Availability and accessibility of data bases.
       Availability of sophisticated sampling and analytical equipment.


    Some  of the  techniques  described  are  well within  the resources  of even

small agencies  (e.g.,  the  methods described in Section 2.3.7  - Preliminary or

Qualitative Receptor  Models)  while others require highly trained statisticians

and computers of significant size  (see Section 2.3.2 -  Factor  Analysis) and

meteorologists  with  considerable modeling experience  (the ISC model described

in Section  2.2.2).

    It should be clear, however, that  in apportioning source contributions in

ambient particulate matter studies no single method (e.g., dispersion modeling

or  a  specific  receptor model)  will ordinarily suffice.   Invariably some sort

of a composite methodology will be needed.

    It has  been reasonably  well established that  most  dispersion models when

properly  applied will predict source impact at a  receptor within  a factor of

two of the correct  or measured  value.   As was pointed  out  earlier, the mass

balance model  can apportion generalized  source  categories  within  this same
                                     -148-

-------
range.  If one can assume that a dispersion model operating  on several sources



and  a  single   receptor  is  a  more  accurate   representation  of  relative



contribution than  of total  impact,  it follows  that combining  the dispersion



and  receptor  models or  two  receptor  models will produce a  much more accurate



representation of  source contributions than use of  each  independently.   While



it  is easy  for anyone  working in this  area to  believe this  statement,  the



state of  technology is  such that it  is not possible to put  error bars  on the



results of  any application  of  composite  methods.   Suffice  it  to  say that the



results would be better  than the use of a single method.  The  same is true for



the combined use of two  receptor models.








6.2 Conclusions



    An analysis of  source contributions to particulate matter  levels at  one or



more  receptor  locations  should start the analysis with elements of  the Level I



approach  (Section  4.3).  The  air  resource  specialist   responsible for  the



source apportionment  study would need first to become intimately  familiar with



available  data  on  particulate matter,  their  trends,  the  adequacy of  the



sampling  array and the  influence of  basic meteorological  factors as outlined



in   Section  2.3.7.   Furthermore,  if  an  adequate  emissions  inventory  for



particulate  matter sources did not exist,  preparing such an inventory would be



a first order of business.   The same  can be said  for  the assembly of existing



meteorological  data.



     In  progressing to higher levels  and  more complex and  costly  approaches,



the analysts must  carefully weigh the objectives  of the analysis  and the  cost



effectiveness  of more sophisticated techniques.  If the source  contribution  is



needed  in only general  terms  or,  more likely, if the  sources of  nonattainment



are relatively straightforward, the  techniques  of  a  Level  I  approach  may  be
                                      -149-

-------
adequate.  If, on  the  other hand, specific  contributions of  selected sources



in  a complex airshed  are needed  for control  strategy  development on  a size



selective basis,  and where emission controls will be costly, a  Level  II  or III



approach will  be needed.   The  cost  range  between Level  I  and III approaches



can vary by more than an order of magnitude (e.g., $10,000 to $500,000).



    The  application   of  composite  source  apportionment   techniques   is  a



stepwise, and to some  extent,  an iterative process where  the effectiveness of



each added  technique is  evaluated in terms of increasing the  accuracy  of the



results in relation to the added time and costs.
                                     -150-

-------
7.0 REFERENCES

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Sources in the Boston Urban Aerosol.  Atmos.  Environ., 14:1137.

Alpert,  D.J.,  and P.K.  Hopke,  1981:  A Determination of  the Sources of
Airborne  Particles  Collected  During  the Regional  Air  Pollution  Study.
Atmos. Environ., 15:675-87.

Alpert,  D.J.,  1980:   Quantitative Apportionment of  Urban  Aerosol Mass by
Factor Analysis.  Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Illinois, Urban, IL.

American  Society  of Testing  Materials,   1955:   Alphabetical  and Grouped
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Bowman,  H.R.,  J.G.  Conway,  and  F.  Asaro,  1974:   Atmospheric  Lead  and
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Britt,  H.I.,  and R.   Luecke,  1973:   The  Estimation of   Parameters  in
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Brookman, E.T., and  J.E. Yocom, 1980:   Environmental  Management:   A Case
Study    in   the    Use   of   Ambient    Data   for   Source   Assessment.
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Electron  Microscopy  in Environmental  Studies.   J.  Air  Pollut.  Control
Assoc., 33:937-943.

Chow,  J.C.,  J.G.  Watson,  J.J.  Shah,  and  T.G.  Pace,   1981:   Source
Contributions  to  Inhalable  Particulate Matter  in  Major  U.S.  Cities.
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Cooper,  J.A.,   1981:   Review  of  the  Chemical  Receptor Model  of Aerosol
Source    Apportionment.    Atmospheric    Aerosols:    Source/Air   Quality
Relationships.   American  Chemical  Society  Symposium  Series  No.  167,
Washington, D.C.

Cooper,  J.A.,  J.G. Watson,  and J.J.  Huntzicker,  1979:   Summary  of  the
Portland  Aerosol  Characterization  Study.   Presented at the 72nd Annual
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Cooper,  J.A.,  and J.G.  Watson, 1980:   Receptor Oriented  Methods  of Air
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Core,  J.E.,  J.A.  Cooper, P.L. Hanrahan,  and W.M.  Cox, 1982:  Particulate
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Crutcher,  E.R.,  1982:  Light  Microscopy  as  an  Analytical  Approach to
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Receptor  Models Applied to Contemporary Air Pollution Problems, Danvers,
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                                     -151-

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Currie,  L.A.,  et  al.,  1983:   Interlaboratory   Comparison  of  Source
Apportionment Procedures:   Results  for Simulated Data  Sets.   The Reports
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Dattner,  S.L.,  and  P.K.  Hopke,  1982:   Receptor Models   Applied  to
Contemporary  Pollution  Problems.   Proceedings  of  the  APCA  Specialty
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Draftz,  R.G.,  J.  Graf,  E.  Arnold,  E.  Grove,  and  E.  Segers,  1980:
Allocating  Fugitive  and Point Source Contributions  to  TSP Non-Attainment
through Hi-Vol Analyses.  Presented at the 73rd Annual  Meeting  of the Air
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Duewer,  D.L.,  B.R.  Kowalski,  and  J.L.  Fasching,  1976:  Improving  the
Reliability of Factor Analysis of Chemical Data  by  Utilizing  the Measured
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Dunker,  A.M.,  1979:   A  Method  for  Analyzing Data   on the  Elemental
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a
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Friedlander,  S.K.,  1977:   Smoke,  Dust, and Haze.  Wiley Interscience, New
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Gaynor, J.E., 1977:  Acoustic  Doppler Measurement of Atmospheric Boundary
Layer  Velocity  Structure  Functions  and  Energy Dissipation  Rates.   J.
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Gerlach,  R.W.,  L.A. Currie, and  C.W. Lewis,  1982:   Review  of the Quail
Roost  II  Receptor Model  Simulation Exercise.   Proceedings  of the APCA
Specialty Conference on Receptor Models  Applied to Contemporary Pollution
Problems.   96-109.

Gordon, G.E., 1980:  Receptor  Models. Environ.  Sci.  Technol.,  14:792-800.

Gordon,  G.E.,  W.H. Zoller, G.S.  Kowalczyk,  and S.M.  Rheingrover, 1981:
Composition of  Source Components  Needed  for  Aerosol  Receptor   Models.
Atmospheric  Aerosol:    Source/Air   Quality   Relationships.    American
Chemical  Society Symposium Series No.  167, Washington,  D.C.
                                      -152-

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Gordon,  G.E.,  et  al.,  1983:   Considerations  for   Design  of  Source
Apportionment Studies.   The Reports  from the Mathematical  and Empirical
Receptor  Models  Workshop  (Quail  Roost  II).    Environmental  Sciences
Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711.

Hanna,  S.R., G.A.  Briggs,  and  R.P.  Hosker,  Jr.,   1982:   Handbook  on
Atmospheric   Diffusion.    DOE/TIC-11223.     Office   of    Health   and
Environmental Research,  U.S.  Department of  Energy.   National Technical
Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161.

Heidorn,  K.C.,   1978:    An  Index  to  Measure  Consistency  of  the  Wind
Direction for Periods Around One Day.   Atmos.  Environ., 12:993.

Henry,  R.C.,  1977:   A  Factor  Model  of  Urban Air Pollution.   Ph.D.
Dissertation, Oregon Graduate Center,  Beaverton, OR.

Henry, R.C.,  1982:   Stability Analysis of Receptor Models  that Use Least
Squares Pitting.   Presented at the APCA  Specialty Conference on Receptor
Models Applied to Contemporary Air Pollution Problems, Danvers, MA.

Henry, R.C., C.W.  Lewis, Philip K. Hopke, and Hugh J.  Williamson, 1983:
Review of  Receptor  Model Fundamentals.  The Reports from the Mathematical
and  Empirical  Receptor  Models  Workshop  (Quail  Roost  II}.  Environmental
Sciences Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711.

Holzworth,  G.C.,  1972:   Mixing Heights, Wind Speeds, and  Potential  for
Urban  Air Pollution Throughout  the Contiguous  United States.   Pub,  No.
AP-1Q1.  U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711.

Hopke,  P.K., 1981:   The Application  of  Factor  Analysis  to Urban Aerosol
Source    Resolution.     Atmospheric     Aerosol:     Source/Air   Quality
Relationships.  American Chemical Society  Symposium  No.  167, Washington,
D.C.

Hopke,  P.K.,  1982:   Application  and  Verification  Studies  of  Target
Transformation  Factor Analysis  as an Aerosol Receptor  Model.  Receptor
Models Applied to Contemporary Pollution  Problems.   Air Pollution Control
Association, Pittsburgh, PA 15230.

Hopke,  P.K., D.J. Alpert,  and B.A.  Roscoe,  1983:   FANTASIA  - A Program
for  Target  Transformation  Factor  Analysis   to Apportion  Sources  in
Environmental Samples.  Computers and Chemistry, 7:149-155.

Houghland,  E.S.,  1933:  Chemical  Element Balance by Linear Programming.
Proceedings  of  the  76th Annual  Meeting  of   the Air Pollution  Control
Association, 83-14.7, Atlanta, GA.

John,  W.,  et al.,  1983:  Validation  of  Samplers for Inhaled Particulate
Matter.   California Department  of Health  Services,  Berkeley.  Air  and
Industrial Hygiene Lab.  Section.  EPA-600/4-83-010.
                                     -153-

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Johnson, D.L., at al., 1983:  Chemical and Analytical  Analyses of Houston
Aerosol   for   Interlaboratory   Comparison   of   Source   Apportionment
Procedures.   The  Reports  from the  Mathematical  and  Empirical  Receptor
Models  Workshop   (Quail  Roost  II).   Environmental   Sciences  Research
Laboratory, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711.

Kelly, J.P., R.J. Lee, and S. Lentz,  1980:   Automated  Characterization of
Fine Particulates.  Scanning Electron Microscopy, 1:311.

Kerr,  P.P.,  1959:   Optical  Minerology.   McGraw-Hill  Book Company, Inc.,
New York, NY.

Kleinman,  M.T.,   1977:    The  Apportionment  of  Sources   of  Airborne
Particulate  Matter.   Ph.D. Dissertation,  Mew York University, New York,
NY.

Kleinman,  M.T., B.S.  Pasternack,  M.  Eisenbud,  and   T.J.  Kneip,  1980:
Identifying  and Estimating the Relative Importance of Sources  of Airborne
Particulates.  Environ. Sci. Technol., 14:62-65.

Kneip, T.J., M.T. Kleinman, and M.  Eisenbud, 1972:  Relative Contribution
of Emission  Sources to the Total Airborne  Particulates in New York City.
Third  IUAPPA Clean Air Congress.

Kneip,  T.J.,  R.P.   Mallon, and  M.T.  Kleinman,  1983:   The  Impact  of
Changing  Air Quality  on Multiple Regression Models  for  Coarse  and Fine
Particle Fractions.  Atroos. Environ.,  17;299-304.

Kuwana, T.,  1980:   Physical Methods  in  Modern Chemical Analysis, Vol. 2,
Academic Press,  Inc.

Larsen,  R.I.,   1971:   A   Mathematical  Model  for  Relating  Air  Quality
Measurements to  Air  Quality  Standards.    Pub.   No.   AP-89.   U.S.  EPA,
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711.

Lioy,  P.J.,  and J.M. Daisey,  et al.,  1983:  The New  Jersey Project on
Airborne Toxic  Elements  and Organic Substances  (ATEOS).   A Summary of  the
1981  Summer  and 1982  Winter  Studies.   J.  Air  Pollut.  Control  Assoc.,
33:650-657.

Lippman,  M., 1983:   Sampling  Aerosols  by  Filtration.   In  Air  Sampling
Instruments   for  Evaluation of Atmospheric  Contaminants, P.J.  Lioy  and
M.J.  Lioy,   ed.,   American   Conference   of   Governmental  Industrial
Hygienists,  Cincinnati,  OH,

Londergan, R.J., D.H. Minott,  D.J.  Wackter, R.R. Fizz,  1983:  Evaluation
of Urban  Air Quality Simulation Models.   Report prepared  for U.S.  EPA,
Office of Air  Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle  Park, NC
27711.

Macias, E.S.,  and  P.K.  Hopke,   1981:    Atmospheric   Aerosol Source/Air
Quality Relationships.   American  Chemical   Society Symposium Series  No.
 167, Washington, D.C.
                                      -154-

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Mayrsohn,  H. ,   and  J.M.  Crabtree,   1976:    Source  Reconciliation  of
Atmospheric Hydrocarbons.  Atmos. Environ., 10; 137.

McCrone, W.C. ,  and J.G.  Delly,  1973:  The  Particle Atlas,  2nd Edition,
Ann Arbor Science Publishers Inc., Ann Arbor, MI.

Miller, M.S., S.K.  Priedlander,  and G.M. Hidy,  1972:   A Chemical Element
Balance  for  the   Pasadena  Aerosol.   J.  Colloid   Interface  Science,
39<1):165.

Morandi,  M.T.,   J.M.  Daisey,  and  P.J.  Lioy,  1983:   A  Receptor  Source
Apportionment  Model  for  Inhalable   Particulate Matter   in  Newark,  NJ.
Proceedings  of  the  76th  Annual  Meeting  of  the  Air  Pollution Control
Association, 83-14.2, Atlanta, GA.

Mueller, P.K. , S.L. Meisler,  and S.  Cohen,  1977:   Design of the Portland
Aerosol  Characterization  Study  and  Associated  Aspects of  the  Data Base
Improvement Project.  P-5129.2, ERT, Inc., Westlake Village, CA.

Pace,  T.G.,  1978:   An   Empirical   Approach   for  Relating  Particulate
Microinventory  Emissions   Data,  Siting  Characteristics  and Annual  TSP
Concentrations.  U.S. EPA,  Research Triangle Park, NC 27711.
Pace,  T.G. ,  1983:   Models  to  Develop  Control  Strategies  for
Proceedings  of  the  76th Annual  Meeting  of  the  Air  Pollution Control
Association, 83-14.3, Atlanta, GA.

Pierson, W.R. ,  and W.W.  Brachaczek, 1976:  Particulate  Matter Associated
with  Vehicles  on  the  Road.   SAE  Automotive  Engineering  Congress and
Exposition, Detroit, MI.

Roscoe, B.A. , P.K. Hopke, S.L. Dattner, and J.M. Jenks,  1982:   The Use of
Principal  Component Analysis to  Interpret  Particulate Compositional Data
Sets.  J. Air Pollut. Control Assoc. , 32:637-642.

Rozett,  R.W. ,  and  E.M.  Peterson, 1975:   Methods   of  Factor  Analysis  of
Mass Spectra.  Analytical Chemistry, 47:1301.

Stevens,  R.K. ,   and T.G.  Pace,  1984:   Overview of the Mathematical and
Empirical  Receptor  Models   Workshop   (Quail  Roost  II).  Environmental
Sciences Research Laboratory, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711.

Strothmann,  J.A. ,  and  F.A.  Schiermeier,  1979:    Documentation of the
Regional  Air  Pollution  Study.   EPA  68-02-2093.   U.S.  EPA,  Research
Triangle Park, NC 27711.

TRW Systems Group,  1969:   Air Quality Display  Model.  PB189194.  National
Technical  Information Service, Springfield, VA  22161.

Taback,  H.J.,  A.R.  Brienya, J.F.  Macho,  and  N.   Brunety,   1979:   Fine
Particle Emissions  from Stationary and Miscellaneous Sources  in  the  South
Coast  Air  Basin.   Prepared for  California  Air  Resources   Board.   KVB
Document 5806-783, Tustin, CA.
                                     -155-

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Texas  Air  Control  Board,  1979:   User's  Guide  to the  Texas  Episodic
Model.   Permits  Section,  Texas Air  Control  Board, 6330  Hwy 290  East,
Austin, TX 78723.

Texas Air Control Board,  1980:   User's Guide  to the Texas Climatological
Model.   Permits  Section,  Texas Air  Control  Board, 6330  Hwy 290  East,
Austin, TX 78723.

Throgmorton,  J.A.,  and K.  Axtell,  1978:   Digest of Ambient  Particulate
Analysis  and Assessment  Methods.   EPA-450/3-78-113.  U.S.  EPA,  Research
Triangle Park, NC 27711.

Thurston,  G.D.,  1983:    A  Source  Apportionment  of   Particulate  Air
Pollution  in  Metropolitan  Boston,  Ph.D.  Thesis,  Harvard  University,
Cambridge, MA 02138.

Turner,  D.B.,  1970:   Workbook  of   Atmospheric  Dispersion  Estimates.
Office  of Air  Programs.    Pub.  No.  AP-26.  U.S. EPA,  Research Triangle
Park, NC 27711.

Turner,  D.B.,   1979:    Atmospheric  Dispersion   Modeling:    A  Critical
Review.  J. Air Pollut. Control Assoc., 29:502.

U.S.  EPA,  1971:   User's  Manual:   SAROAD   (Storage  and  Retrieval  of
Aerometric  Data).   APTD-0663.   Office of Air  Programs,  Research Triangle
Park, NC 27711.

U.S.  EPA,  1973:   User's Guide  for the Climatological  Dispersion Model.
EPA-RA-73-024.

U.S.  EPA, 1977a:  Guidelines for Air  Quality  Planning and Analysis Volume
10   (Revised):   Procedures  for  Evaluating  Air  Quality  Impact of  New
Stationary  Sources.  EPA-450/4-77-001.

U.S.  EPA,   1977b:   User's  Manual  for  Single-Source   (CRSTER)  Model.
EPA-450/2-77-013.

U.S.  EPA, 1977c:  Valley  Model  User's Guide.   EPA-450/2-77-018.

U.S.  EPA, 1977d:  Addendum to  User's Guide for  Climatological Dispersion
Model.   EPA-450/3-77-015.

U.S.  EPA,  1978a:   OAQPS Guideline  Series:   Guideline  on  Air Quality
Models.  " EPA-450/2-78-027.

U.S.  EPA, 1978b:  User's  Guide  for  PAL.  EPA-600/4-78-013.

U.S.  EPA, 1978c:  User's  Guide  for  RAM.  EPA-600/8-78-016a.

U.S.  EPA,  1978d.   Digest of Ambient Particulate Analysis  and Assessment
Methods.  EPA 450/3-78-113.

U.S.  EPA, 1979a:  Industrial Source Complex (ISC) Dispersion  Model  User's
Guide.   EPA-450/4-79-030.
                                      -156-

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U.S.  EPA,  1979b:   Air  Monitoring  Strategy  for  State  Implementation
Plans.   EPA-450/2-77-010,  as  updated  in  44  FR  27558.    (Ambient  Air
Quality Monitoring,  Data Reporting  and Surveillance  Reporting,  May  10,
1979)

U.S. EPA, 1980a:  User's Guide for MPTER.  EPA-600/8-80-016.

U.S.  EPA,   1980b:    Ambient  Monitoring  Guidelines  for  Prevention  of
Significant Deterioration (PSD).  EPA-450/4-80-012.

U.S.  EPA, 1980c:   Interim  Guidelines  and  Specifications for  Preparing
Quality  Assurance  Project  Plans.   QAMS-005/80.    Office of  Monitoring
Systems and Quality Assurance, Washington, DC  20460.

U.S.  EPA,  1981a:   Receptor Model Technical Series  Volume I:   Overview of
Receptor   Model   Application   to   Particulate   Source  Apportionment.
EPA-450/4-81-016a .

U.S.  EPA, 1981b:  Receptor  Model Technical  Series Volume  II:   Chemical
Mass  Balance.  EPA-450/4-81-016b.

U.S.  EPA, 1981c:  An Evaluation Study  for  the  Industrial Source Complex
(ISC) Dispersion Model.  EPA-450/4-8 1-002.

U.S.  EPA,  1981d:   Interim Procedures  for Evaluating  Air Quality Models.
Office  of Air  Quality Planning  and Standards, Source  Receptor Analysis
Branch, U.S. EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711.

U.S.  EPA,  1982a:   PTPLU - A  Single  Source  Gaussian Dispersion Algorithm.
EPA-600/8-82-014.

U.S.   EPA,   1982b:    Quality   Assurance  Handbook   for  Air  Pollution
Measurement    Systems:     Volume    IV.     Meteorological   Measurements.
EPA-600/ 4-82-060.

U.S.  EPA, 1983a:   Receptor  Model Technical  Series  Volume  III:   User's
Manual for Chemical Mass Balance Model.  EPA-45Q/4-83-014.

U.S.  EPA, 1983b:   Receptor Model Technical  Series  Volume IV:  Summary of
Particle  Identification Techniques.  EPA-450/4-83-018.

U.S.  EPA, 1983c:  User's  Network for  Applied Modeling  of Air Pollution
(UNAMAP) , Version 5"  (Computer  Programs  on  Tape).   PB83-244368.  National
Technical Information Service,  Springfield, VA 22161.

U.S.  EPA, 1983d:  Linn County,  Iowa Non-Traditional Fugitive Dust Study.
EPA-907/9-83-002 .

U.S.  EPA, 1984:   Receptor Model  Source  Composition Library, Draft. EPA-
Watson,  J.G. ,  1979:  Chemical  Element Balance Receptor Model Methodology
for  Assessing  the Sources of Fine  and Total Suspended Particulate Matter
in   Portland,   Oregon.    Ph.D.   Dissertation,  Oregon  Graduate  Center,
Beaverton, OR.
                                      -157-

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Watson, J.G.,  1982:   Overview  of Receptor Model Principles.  Presented at
the APCA Specialty  Conference  on Receptor Models Applied  to Contemporary
Air Pollution Problems, Danvers, MA.

Watson,  J.G.,  P.J.  Lioy,  and  P.K.  Mueller,  1983:   The  Measurement
Process:  Precision, Accuracy and Validity.  Air  Sampling  Instruments for
Evaluation   of   Atmospheric   Contaminants.    6th   Edition.    American
Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists,  Cincinnati, OH.

Watson, J.G., R.C.  Henry,  J.A.  Cooper, and E.S.  Macias, 1981:   The State
of  the  Art  of  Receptor  Models Relating  Ambient Suspended Particulate
Matter   to    Sources.     Atmospheric   Aerosol:     Source/Air   Quality
Relationships,  American   Chemical   Society  Symposium  Series  Mo.  167,
Washington, D.C.

Willard, H.H., L.L.  Merritt, and J.A.  Dean, 1974:   Instrumental  Methods
of Analysis.  5th Edition.  D. Van Norstrand Company.

Yocom,  J.E.,  E.T.  Brookman,  and  B.I.  Raffle, 1979:    Strategies  for
Control  of  Particulate Matter  in  Allegheny  County.   Final   Report  to
Allegheny  County  Bureau  of  Air  Pollution Control,  TRC Environmental
Consultants,  Inc.
                                      -158-

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                            APPENDIX A

  RESULTS OF SELECTED MODEL VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION STUDIES
PERTAINING TO THE 6 ASSUMPTIONS EMPLOYED BY THE MASS BALANCE MODEL

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                                   APPENDIX A


    RESULTS OP SELECTED MODEL VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION STUDIES PERTAINING
            TO THE 6 ASSUMPTIONS EMPLOYED BY THE MASS BALANCE MODEL

1.  Source Composition

    Source   compositions   will   vary  systematically   and   randomly.    This
                                                            *

variability is caused by 1) transformations with transport  time  between source

and  receptor (an  example is  the volatilization of  bromine in  auto exhaust;

e.g., Bowman,  et al.,  1974),  2) differences  in the fuel  type or  operating

processes between similar  sources or of the same source in time (an example is

the  review  of  lead  concentrations in auto  exhaust  from  different  automobiles

using different  fuels by  Pierson and Brachaczek,  1976),  and 3) uncertainties

of the measurement process.

    Watson  (1979) and Currie,  et al., (1983) introduced systematic errors into

source   compositions  to   evaluate  the   effects   on  source   contribution

calculations and found:
    •  The  error  in  the  estimated  source  contributions  due  to  biases
       (i.e.,   proportional   increases  or   decreases)   in   the   source
       compositions  is  in  direct proportion to the magnitude of that bias
       (Watson, 1979).

    •  For  random errors  associated  with  estimates of  average  source
       compositions,  the  magnitude  of  the  source  contribution  errors
       decreases as the number of components increases (Watson, 1979).

    •  In comparing  a number of mass balance  solutions  on simulated data
       in which random errors  and biases were  introduced to  the  source
       compositions,  Currie, et  al.,  (1983)  found  "Only the  effective
       variance  [solution]  explicitly  included  the  effect  of  source
       profile  uncertainties,  but  these were treated  as random  rather
       than as systematic error components."
                                      A-l

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2.  Components Add Linearly

    No  studies  have  been  performed  to  evaluate  deviations  from  this

assumption.   While the  deviations  from  this  assumption  are  generally

considered  to  be  small,  the  conversion  of  gases  to  particles  and

reactions  between  particles are  not inherently  linear processes  (e.g.,

Priedlander, 1977).



3.  All Sources Have Been Identified

    Watson   (1979)  systematically  increased   the  number   of  sources

contributing  to  his simulated data from 4 to 8 contributors while solving

the mass  balance equations assuming only  four  sources.   He also examined

the  case  of  including more  sources in  the least  squares solution than

those which actually contribute.  The results wera:


    •  Underestimating  the number  of  sources  has  little  effect  on the
       calculated   source  contributions   if   the  prominant   properties
       contributed by the source  are excluded from the solution.

    •  When  the number of  sources  is  underestimated and  when prominent
       properties  of the omitted sources  are  included in  the  calculation
       of  source   contributions,  the  contributions   of   sources  with
       properties  in common with  the omitted sources are overestimated.

    *  When  source types  which are  actually present are excluded from the
        effective variance  least squares  solution,  ratios of calculated  to
       measured concentrations are often  outside  of the 0.5 to 2.0  range,
       and the  sum of the source  contributions   is  much  less  than the
        total  measured mass.   The low calculated/measured  ratios indicate
       which  source compositions  should  be included.

     •   When the number  of sources is overestimated, the sources which are
        not   actually   present   yield   contributions   less   than   their
        precisions   if  their  properties  are  significantly  distinct  from
        other   sources.   The  over-specification of  sources decreases the
        precisions  of the  true source contribution  estimates.
                                       A-2

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4.  Number of Sources Less Than Number of Components

    It  is  likely  that  the  number  of  individual   sources  contributing  to

receptor concentrations is much larger than the number  of  properties which can

be measured.  It  is  therefore necessary to group  sources  into source types of

similar  compositions such  that  this  assumption  is  met.   For most  commonly

measured  aerosol  properties,  meeting Assumption  5 practically  defines these

groupings.  Henry (1977) speculates that the  linear programming solution might

work if  the  number  of sources is greater than the number of components, but he

offers  no proof.   None of  the  least squares  solutions   will work  if  this

assumption is not met.



5.  Compositions are Linearly Independent

    Watson  (1979)  examined  effects  of  deviations from  this  assumption  with

simulated  data   while   Gordon,  et  al.,  (1981)  studied  it  with  ambient

measurements.  Henry (1982) has  devised an  analytical method of  determining

the degree  of linear dependence  in typical mass balance applications for which

only a few tests  are available.  His algorithm could  be  incorporated into the

routine  mass  balance model to  identify linear  independence at given precision

levels for  all  combinations of sources and components.  The  results  of these

studies  show:
    •  With  most  commonly measured components  (i.e.,  ions, elements,, and
       carbon) and  source types  (e.g.,  motor  vehicle,  crustal, residual
       oil,   sea  salt,   steel  production,  wood  burning,  and  various
       industrial processes), from  five  to seven  sources are linearly
       independent  of each other.   Some of  the source compositions used
       in  the solution may be better  expressed as  linear combinations of
       measured source compositions (Henry,  1982).

    •  Henry  (1982)  determined  the   modified  source  compositions  which
       would  give  the same  results  as  a  ridge  regression solution and
       noted  that:    "The  apparent ability  of  ridge  regression to solve
       the  multicollinearity  problem  is  seen  to be  based  on   implicitly
       changing the  [mass  balance] problem  to  one which is not  physically
       meaningful."
                                      A-3

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    •  Gordon,  et  al.,   (1981)   found  instabilities  in  the  ordinary
       weighted  least  squares  solutions  when  they  removed  elemental
       concentrations which  were  known to  be unique  to  certain  source
       types.   Using simulated data with known perturbations of  0 percent
       to 20  percent,  Watson  (1979)  found:    "In  the presence  of  likely
       uncertainties,  sources   such  as  urban   dust  and   continental
       background  dust  cannot  be  adequately  resolved  by least  squares
       fitting,  even  though   their  compositions  are   not   identical.
       Several nearly unique ratios must exist for good separation.


6.  Measurement Errors Random and Uncorrelated

    These least squares solutions  methods are derived from maximum likelihood

theory which  requires this assumption.  In reality, we 'know  very little about

the  distribution  of errors  for  the  source  compositions  and  the  ambient

concentrations.  For small errors  (i.e.  <10  percent) the actual distribution

may  not  be  important,  but  for  large  errors  it  probably   is;  a  symmetric

distribution  becomes less  probable  as  the  coefficient   of  variation  of  the

measurement increases.   Though evaluation  of deviation  from  this  assumption

could  be undertaken by generating simulated  data perturbed  by random numbers

drawn from lognonnal, uniform, and other distributions, these  tests have never

been performed.
                                       A-4

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          APPENDIX B




SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES

-------
                                   APPENDIX B

                         SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES
Air Conditioners;

Buchnea,  D.  &  Buchnea,  A.   (1974)  "Air  Pollution  by  Aluminum  Compounds
Resulting From Corrosion of Air Conditioners".  ES&T, 8, 752.

Animal Feed and Wastes:

Capar,  S.G.,   Tanner,  J.T.,   Friedman,   M.H.,   and   Boyer,   K.W.    (1978)
"Multielement  Analysis  of Animal  Feed,  Animal  Wastes,  and  Sewage Sludge".
ES&T, 12, 785.

Agricultural Burning;

Core, J.E.  and Terraglio,  F.P.  (1978)  "Field and  Slash  Burning Particulate
Characterization:  The Search for Unique Natural Tracers".   Annual Meeting of
Pacific Northwest International Section of APCA, Portland, Oregon.

Shum, Y.S. and Loveland, W.D.   (1974)  "Atmospheric Trace Element Concentrations
Associated  with  Agricultural  Field  Burning  in  the  Willamette  Valley  of
Oregon".  Atmospheric Environment, £, 645.

Auto Exhaust:

Ganley, J.T.  and Springer, G.S.  (1974)  "Physical and Chemical Characteristics
of Particulates in Spark Ignition Engine Exhaust".  ES&T, 8, 340.

Gillette, D.A.  and  Winchester, J.W.  (1972)  "A Study of Aging of  Lead Aerosols
- - I".  Atmospheric Environment, (5, 443,

Gillette, D.A.  (1972)  "A Study of  Aging of Lead Aerosols — II".   A Numerical
Model  Simulating Coagulation  and  Sedimentation  of  a Leaded Aerosol  in the
Presence of an Unleaded Background Aerosol".  Atmospheric Environment, 6,  451.

Habibi,  K.   (1973)    "Characterization   of  Particulate   Matter   in  Vehicle
Exhausts".  ES&T, 7, 223.

Harrison, R.M.  and  Sturges, W.T. (1983) "The Measurement and  Interpretation of
Br/Pb Ratios  in Airborne Particles".  Atmospheric Environment, 17, 311.

Hasanen,  E.,  et al.   "Benzene,  Toluene  and  Xylene  Concentrations  in Car
Exhausts and  in City Air". Atmospheric Environment, 15, 1755.

Hirschler,  D.A.  and  Gilbert,  L.F.   (1964)  "Nature  of  Lead  in  Automobile
Exhaust".  Archives of Environmental Health, 8, 297.

Hirschler,  D.A.  et al.   (1957)  "Particulate  Lead  Compounds  in  Automobile
Exhaust Gas".  Industrial and Engineering Chemistry, 49, 1131.

Holiday,  E.P.  and  Parkinson, M.C.  (1978).   "Another  Look at  the  Effects of
Manganese Fuel Additive  (MMT) on Automobile Emission".  APCA Meeting Houston.


                                      B-l

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                   SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES (continued)


Larsen, R.I.  (1966)  "Air Pollution  from  Motor Vehicles".   Annals of  the New
York Academy of Sciences, 136, 275.

McKee,  H.C.  (1970)  "Discussion:   Characterization  of Particulate  Lead  in
Vehicle Exhaust:  Experimental Techniques".  ES&T, 4, 253.

McKee, H.C. and McMahan, W.A. (1960) "Automobile Exhaust Particulates  - Source
and Variation".  JAPCA, 10, 456.

Moran,  J.B.  et al.   (1972)  "Effect of  Fuel  Additives on  the  Chemical and
Physical  Characteristics  of Particulate  Emissions  in  Automotive  Exhaust".
U.S. EPA, Report EPA-R2-72-066.

Nielsen,  T.  (1979)  "Determination  of  Polycyclic Aromatic  Hydrocarbons  in
Automobile  Exhaust by  Means of  High-Performance  Liquid Chromatography  with
Fluoresence Detection".  Journal of Chromatography, 170, 147.

Ninomeya,  J.S.  et  al.  (1970)  "Automotive  Particulate  Emissions".   Second
International Clean Air Conference, p. 663.

Ondov, J.M.  et  al.  (1982)  "Trace Element Emissions  on Aerosols".   ES&T, 16,
318.

Pierson,  W.R.  and Brachaczek, W.W.  (1976) "Particulate Matter Associated with
Vehicles  on the Road".   SAE Automotive  Engineering  Congress  and Exposition,
Detroit, Mich., Feb 23-27, 1976.

Pierson,  W.R.  et  al.  (1978)   "Methylcyclopentadionyl Manganese Tricarbonyl
Effect on Manganese Emissions from Vehicles on the Road".  JAPCA,  28.

Sampson,  K.E.  and  Springer,  G.S.  (1973)  "Effects of  Exhaust  Gas Temperature
and  Fuel  Composition  on  Particulate Emission  from  Spark  Ignition Engines".
ES&T, 7, 55.

Ter  Haar,  G.L.  and  Boyard,  M.A.   (1971)   "Composition   of  Airborne  Lead
Particles"  Nature, 232, 553.

Ter  Haar,  G.L.  et  al.   (1972)  "Composition,  Size  and Control of Automotive
Exhaust Particulates".  JAPCA,  22,  39.

Von Lehmden, D.J.  et  al.  (1974)  "Determination of  Trace Elements in Coal, Fly
Ash,  Fuel  Oil and Gasoline  	 A Preliminary Comparison of Selected Analytical
Techniques".  Analytical Chemistry,  46, 239.

Wilson,  W.E. et  al.   (1973)  "The  Effect  of  Fuel Composition  on Atmospheric
Aerosol Due  to  Auto Exhaust".   JAPCA, 23,  949.

Carbon Black;

Serth,  R.W.  and Hughes, T.W. (1980)  "Polycyclic Organic Matter  (POM) and  Trace
Element Contents of Carbon Black  Vent Gas".   ES&T,  14,  298.
                                       B-2

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                   SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES (continued)
Cement Production;

Cooper, J.A. at al. (1976) "Analysis of Portland Cement, Clinker,  Raw Mix, and
Associated  Ceramic Materials  Using  an Energy  Dispersive X-Ray  Fluorescence
Analyzer With  Inter-Element Corrections".   Advances  in  X-Ray Analysis,  Vol.
19, Dubuque, Iowa, Kindall/Hunt Publishing Co.

Coal-Fired Boilers:

Bennett, R.L.  and Knapp,  K.T.  (1978)  "Sulfur  and Trace  Metal Emissions From
Combustion  Sources".    April   24-26,  Southern  Pines,   N.C.    Workshop  on
Measurement Technology  and Characterization of  Primary Sulfur Oxides Emission
from Combustion Sources.

Block,  Chantal  and  Dams,  R.  (1976)  "Study  of  Fly  Ash  Emission  During
Combustion of Coal".  ES&T, 10, 1011.

Coles, D.G. et  al. (1979) "Chemical Studies of Stack Fly Ash from a Coal-Fired
Power Plant"  Environmental Research and Technology, 13, 455.

Conway,  R.P.   (1980)  Chemical  and   Physical   Characterization  of  Sulfates
Associated  with  Coal Fly Ash,  Ph.D.  Dissertation, Colorado State University,
Ft. Collins, CO.

Fisher,  G.L.   et  al.    (1978)   "Physical  and   Morphological   Studies  of
Size-Classified Coal Fly Ash".  ES&T,  12, 447.

Germani, M.S.  (1980) Selected  Studies of  Four  High  Temperature Air Pollution
Sources Ph.D.  Dissertation, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD.

Gladney, E.S.  et  al.  (1976)  "Composition  and  Size  Distribution  of In-Stack
Particulate Material  at  a Coal-Fired Power  Plant".   Atmospheric Environment,
10, 1071.
Homolya,  J.B.  and  Cheney,  J.L.  (1978)  "An Assessment  of Sulfuric  Acid and
Sulfate Emissions from the Combustion Fossil Fuels".   Workshop  Proceedings on
Pjcimary Sulfate  Emissions  from Combustion Sources Volume 2, Characterizations.
EPA Publication  600/9-78-036.

Klein, U.K.  et al.  (1975)  "Pathways of  Thirty-Seven Trace Elements  Through a
Coal-Fired Power Plant". ES&T, 9, 973.

Nadkarni,  R.A.  (1975)  "Multielement  Analysis  of  Coal  and  Coal  Fly  Ash
Standards  by  Instrumental  Neutron  Activation  Analysis".   Radiochemical  and
Radioanalysis  Letters, 21, 161.

Ondov, J.M.  et al.  (1979)  "Emissions and  Particle  Size Distributions of Minor
and  Trace  Elements  at  Two  Western  Coal-Fired  Power Plants  Equipped  with
Cold-Side Electrostatic Precipitators".  ES&T, 13, 947.
                                      B-3

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                   SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES (continued)


Ondov, J.M. et al. (1981) "Elemental Composition of  Atmospheric Fine Particles
Emitted from Coal  Burned in a Modern Electric Power Plant Equipped with a Flue
Gas   Desulfurization  System".    Atmospheric  Aerosol,   Source/Air   Quality
Relationships, edited by E.S.  Macios and P.K. Hopke, American Chemical Society
Symposium Series 167, Washington, D.C.

Richards L.W. (1981) "The Chemistry Aerosol Physics, and  Optical Properties of
a Western Coal-Fired Power Plant Plume".  Atmospheric Environment, 15, 2111.

Small,  J.A.  (1976)  An  Elemental  and Morphological  Characterization  of  the
Emissions  from  the Dickerson  and Chalk  Point Coal-Fired  Power  Plants Ph.D.
Dissertation, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.

Small,  M.   (1979)  Composition  of Particulate  Trace Elements  in  Plumes  from
Industrial  Sources  Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Maryland,  College Park,
MD.

Small,  M.  et  al.  (1981)  "Airborne Plume Study of Emissions from the Processing
of Copper Ores in Southeastern Arizona".  SS&T, 15, 293.

Smith,  R.D. et  al  (1979)  "Concentration  Dependence  Upon  Particle  Size  of
Volatized Elements in Fly Ash".  ES&T, 13, 553.

Surprenant,  N.F.  (1981)  "Emissions  Assessment  of  Conventional  Stationary
Combustion    Systems:     Volume    IV:     Industrial   Combustion   Sources".
EPA-60Q/7-81-003C, Research Triangle Park, NC.

Taylor, D.D.  and Flanagan,  R.C.  (1980) "Aerosols  from a Laboratory Pulverized
Coal  Combustor".    Atmospheric  Aerosol:   Source/Air  Quality  Relationships,
edited  by  E.S.  Kacias  and P.K.  Hopke,  American Chemical  Society Symposium
Series, No. 167, Washington, D.C.

Ulrich, G.D.  (1976)  "An Investigation of the Mechanism of Fly-Ash Formulation
in Coal-Fired Utility Boilers".   U.S.-ERDA Report  FE-2205-1.

Coke  Ovens

Barret,   R.E.   et  al.    (1977)   "Sampling  and  Analysis  of   Coke  Oven  Door
Emissions".  EPA-600/2-77-213,  Research Triangle Park, NC.

Copper  Smelters

Germani,  M.S.  (1980) Selected  Studies of  Four High  Temperature Air Pollution
Sources Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Maryland,  College Park,  MD.

Schwitzgebel,  K.  et  al.  (1978)  "Trace  Element  Study  at  a Primary Copper
Smelter".   EPA-600/2-78-065a,  Research Triangle Park, NC.

Small M.  (1979)  Composition  of  Particulats Trace  Elements  in  Plumes   from
Industrial Sources  Ph.D.  Dissertation,  University  of  Maryland,  College Park,
MD.
                                       B-4

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                   SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES (continued)


Zoller, W.H.  et  al.  (1978) "Atmospheric  Trace  Elements Emissions  from Copper
Smelters".    Presented   at  Division   of  Environmental  Chemistry,  American
Chemical Society, Miami, Fla.

Cotton Gin:

Lee, R.E.  (1975) "Concentration and Size of Trace Metal  Emissions  from a Power
Plant, a Steel Plant, and a Cotton Gin".  SS&T, 9, 543.

Diesel Exhaust:

Prey,  J.W.  and Corn,  M.  (1967)  "Physical  and  Chemical  Characteristics  of
Particulates  in a Diesel  Exhaust".   American  Industrial  Hygiene  Association
Journal, 28, 468.

Schreck, R.M.  et al  (1978) "Characterization of Diesel Exhaust Particulate for
Mutagenic  Testing".  APCA Meeting, Houston.

Yergey, J.A.  (1981)  Chemical Characterization of Organic  Adsorbates on Diesel
Particulate Matter, Ph.D. Dissertation, Pennsylvania State University.

NTIS  (1982)  "Diesel  Exhaust Emissions.   1974-May,  1982".   (Citations from the
American Petroleum Institute Data Base).

Glass Production;

Mamuro,  T.  et  al.   (1979)  "Elemental  Compositions  of  Suspended  Particles
Released  in  Glass  Manufacture".  Annual Report  of  the  Radiation  Center  of
Osaka Prefecture, 20. 29.

Jet Aircraft Exhaust:

Fordyce,  J.S.  and Shebley (1975) "Estimate  of Contribution  of  Jet Aircraft
Operations to Trace  Element  Concentrations at or  Near Airports".   JAPCA, 25,
721.

Mamuno,  T. et  al.  (1973)  "Activation  Analysis of  Particulates  Emitted from
Aircraft   Jet  Engines".   Annual  Report  of  the  Radiation  Center  of  Osaka
Prefecture, 14,  7.

Kraft Paper Mills;

Augustine, E.  (1973)  Airborne Sampling of Particles  Emitted to the Atmosphere
from  Kraft  Paper  Mill   Processors  and  Their Characterization   by Electron
Microscopy (Corvallis, OR:  OSU Air Resources Center.)

Keith,  L.  (1976)  "Identification of Organic  Compounds in  Unbleached Treated
Kraft Paper Mill Wastewaters".  ES&T, 6,  555.
                                      B-5

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                   SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES (continued)
Nitrogen Containing Fuels;

Dubay,  G.R.  and  Kites,  R.A.  (1978) "Cyano-arenes  Produced by  Combustion of
Nitrogen-Containing Fuel".  ES&T, 12, 965.

Oil-Fired Boilers

Bennet, R.L.  and Knapp,  K.T.  (1978) "Sulfur  and Traca  Metal Emissions  from
Combustion Sources".   April 24-26,  Southern Pines,  NC  Workshop on Measurement
Technology  and  Characterization  of  Primary  Sulfur   Oxides  Emission  from
Combustion Sources.

Dietz,  R.N.  et  al.  (1978)  "Operating  Parameters Affecting  Sulfate Emissions
from  an  Oil-Fired Power Unit".   Workshop  Proceedings  on  Primary  Sulfate
Emissions from Combustion Sources,  Volume 2 Characterization  (EPA Publication,
500/9-78-0206).

Homolya,  J.B.  and Cheney,  J.L.   (1978)  "An Assessment of  Sulfuric  Acid and
Sulfate Emissions  from the Combustion of Fossils Fuels".  Workshop Proceedings
on   Primary   Sulfate    Emissions   from   Combustion    Sources,   Volume   2
Characterization (EPA Publication, 500/9-78-0206).

Mroz,  E.J.   (1976) The  Study  of  the  Elemental Composition of  Particulate
Emissions From an Oil-Fired Power Plant Ph.D.  Thesis  (University of Maryland,
College Park, MD).

Mamuro, T.  (1979)  "Elemental Compositions of Suspended Particles Released from
Various Boilers".   Annual Regort of the Radiation Center  of Osaka Prefecture,
20, 29.

Van Lehmden,  D.J.  et al.  (1974) "Determination of  Trace Elements in Coal, Fly
Ash,   Fuel  Oil,   and   Gasoline  -   -  A  Preliminary  Comparison  of   Selected
Analytical Techniques".   Analytical  Chemistry,  46, 239.

Zoller,  W.M.  et  al.  (1973) "The Sources and  Distributions  of Vanadium in the
Atmosphere".   Trace  Elements in the Environment  Ed. E.L.  Kothny (Washington,
D.C.:   American Chemical  Society).

Paste  Plants;

Bjorseth  A.   and  Lunde  G.  (1977)  "Analysis  of the  Polycyclic   Aromatic
Hydrocarbon  Content of Airborne Particulate  Pollutants  in a  Soderberg  Paste
Plant".   American  Industrial Hygiene Association  Journal, 38,  224.

Petroleum Pitch:

Grienke,  R.A. and Lewis,  I.C.   (1975)  "Development of a  Gas Chromatographic
Ultraviolet  Absorption  Spectrometric  Method  of Monitoring   Petroleum   Pitch
Volatiles in  the  Environment".   Analytical Chemistry, 47, 2151.
                                       B-6

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                   SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES (continued)


Refuse Combustion:

Campbell, W.J. et  al.  (1977)  "Determination of Trace and Minor Elements in the
Combustible   Fraction   of   Urban   Refuse".     Methods  and  Standards   for
Environmental Measurement,  (NBS  Special  Publication 264: Washington, D.C.), p.
157.

Clement,  R.E.  (1981)   Development  of  Analytical  Methodology  for  Airborne
Particulate  Municipal   Incinerator  Ash,  Ph.D.  Dissertation,  University  of
Waterloo, Canada.

Eicemen,  G.A.  (1979)  "Analysis of  Fly  Ash  from  Municipal  Incinerators for
Trace Organic Compounds" Analytical Chemistry, 51, 2343.

Germani,  M.S.  (1980) Selected  Studies of Four  High  Temperature  Air Pollution
Sources Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.

Greenberg,  R.R.  (1976)  A  Study of  Trace Elements Emitted  on Particles  from
Municipal Incinerators Ph.D. Thesis  (University of Maryland, College Park, MD).

Greenberg,  R.R.   et al.   (1978)  "Composition  of Particles  Emitted  from the
Nicosia Municipal Incinerator".  ES&T, 12, 1329.

Law, S.L. and Gordon, G.E.  (1979)  "Sources of  Metals in Municipal Incinerator
Emissions".  ES&T, 13,  433.

Mamuro,  T.  and  Mizohato,  A.  (1978)   "Elemental  Composition  of  Suspended
Particles  Released in Refuse  Incineration".   Annual  Report  of  the  Radiation
Center of Osaka Prefecture, 19, 15.

Shen,  T.T.  (1978)  "Air  Pollutants  from Sewage  Sludge Incineration".   APCA
Meeting, Houston.

Road Dust;

Blumer,  M.  (1977)  "Polycyclic  Aromatic  Hydrocarbons  in Soils  of  a  Mountain
Valley:   Correlation with  Highway  Traffic  and  Cancer Influence".  ES&T, 11,
1083.

Ciacco,  L.L.  (1974)  "Composition  of   Organic  Constituents  in  Breathable
Airborne Particulate Matter Near a Highway".  ES&T, 2,  935.

Soil:

Rahn,  K.A.   (1976)  "Silicon and Aluminum  in  Atmospheric  Aerosols:  Crust-Air
Fractionation?" Atmospheric Environment,  10, 597.

Taylor,  S.R.  (1964)  "Abundance of Chemical Elements  in the Continental Crust:
A New Table".  Geochemica et Cosmochimia Acta, 28, 1273.
                                      B-7

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                   SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES (continued)


Thomae,  S.C.  (1977)  Size and  Composition of  Atmospheric Particles  in Areas
Near Washington Ph.D./ Thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.

Steel Production;

Jacko,  R.B.  and Neuendorff  (1977)  "Trace  Metal  Particulate  Emission  Test
Results from a  Number of Industrial and Municipal  Point Sources".   JAPCA, 21,
989.

Lee, R.E. et al. "Concentration and Size of Trace Metal  Emissions  from a Power
Plant, A Steel Plant and a Cotton Gin".  ES&T, 9, 643.

Mamuro,  T.  et  al.  (1979)  "Elemental Compositions of  Suspended  Particles
Released from Iron and Steel Works".  Annual Report of_ the Radiation Center of
Osaka Prefecture, 20, 19.

Tire Dusts:

Dennis,  M.L.   (1974) "Rubber  Dust  from  the  Normal  Wear of Tires".   Rubber-
Chemistry and Technology, 47, 1011.

Pierson, W.R.  and Brachaczek,  W.W,  (1974)  "Airborne Particulate  Debris  from
Rubber  Tires".   Ecology  Symposium,  ACS Rubber  Division,  Toronto,  Ontario May
7-10, 1974.

Pierson, W.R.  and Brachaczek,  W.W.  (1975)  "Airborne Particulate  Debris  from
Rubber  Tires".   Presented  at  the  Conference  on  Environmental  Aspects  of
Chemical Use   in Rubber Processing  Operations,  University  of Akron,  March
12-14,  1975.

Pierson, W.R.  and Brachaczek, W.W.  (1975)  "In-Traffic  Measurement of Airborne
Tire-Wear Particulate Debris".  JAPCA, 25, 404.

Veneer  Dryers;

Cronn,  D.R.  et al.   (1983) "Chemical Characterization of  Plywood  Veneer Dryer
Emissions".  Atmospheric  Environment,  17, 201.

Volcanoes;

German,  M.S.  (1980)  Selected  Studies of  Four High  Temperature Air Pollution
Sources Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.

Welding;

Akellson,  K.  et al.  (1974) "Elemental  Abundance Variation with Particle Size
in  Aerosols  from Welding Operations".  Proceedings of the Second International
Conference  on   Nuclear   Methods   in  Environmental  Research   (University  of
Missouri), p. 385.
                                       B-8

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                   SOURCE COMPOSITION REFERENCES (continued)
Wood Stoves:

Butcher,  S.S.  and  Sorenson,  E.M.  (1979)  "A Study  of Wood  Stove  Particulate
Emissions".  JAPCA, 29, 724.

Cooper,  J.A.   (1980)   "Environmental  Impact  of  Residential  Wood  Combustion
Emissions and its Implications".  JAPCA, 30, 855.
                                      B-9

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                                    TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
                             (Please read Instructions on the reverse befoie completing)
  EPA-450/4-84-020
                                                            3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION-NO.
  TITLE AND SUBTITLE Receptor Model Technical Series, Vol.  V:
  Source Apportionment  Techniques And  Considerations  In
  Combining Their Use
                                                            5. REP
              6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
 7 AUTHORIS)
 Michael K. Anderson,  et al.
                                                            8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
 TRC Environmental  Consultants,  Inc.
 East Hartford, CT   06108
                                                             10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
              11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
 12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
  Office Of Air Quality Planning And  Standards
  U.  S.  Environmental  Protection Agency
  Research Triangle, NC  27711
                                                             13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
    (MD 14)
              14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
 IS SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES

  EPA Project Officer:   Thompson G. Pace
 16. ABSTRACT

       This volume 1)  discusses models which identify source  contributions  to receptor
  concentrations, their  input data, the  assumptions on which  they are based,  and the
  effects of typical deviations from those  assumptions;   2)  identifies measurements
  which these models require, their availability, the additional assumptions  imposed
  by  these measurements,  and the effect  of  their precision and accuracy on  modeling
  results;  and 3)presents approaches, pertaining to three levels of analysis detail,
  for the optimum combinations of models and measurements in  practical situations, and
  illustrates these protocols with case  studies.
                                KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
                  DESCRIPTORS
b.lOENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS  C.  COSATI Field/Group
13. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
                                               19. SECURITY CLASS (This Reporlj
                            21. NO. OF PAGES

                               192
                                               20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
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EPA Form 2220-1 (9-73)

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