United States
Environmental Protection
Agency
Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park NC 27711
EPA-450/4-84-029
April 1985
Air
National Air Quality and
Emissions Trends Report,
1983
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EPA-450/4-84-029
NATIONAL AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS
TRENDS REPORT, 1983
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air and Radiation
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
April 1985
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Region V, Librr.r/
230 South C::;.r:x::n ;ixreet
Chicago, IMi.ic'.s 60oG4
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DISCLAIMER
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Air Quality Planning
and Standards, Environmental Protection Agency, and approved for publication,
Mention of trade names or commercial products is not intended to constitute
endorsement or recommendation for use.
Environmental P^_ ^^ .
n
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PREFACE
This is the eleventh annual report of air pollution trends issued by
the Monitoring and Data Analysis Division of the U. S. Environmental
Protection Agency. The report is directed toward both the technical
air pollution audience and the interested general public. The Division
solicits comments on this report and welcomes suggestions on our trend
techniques, interpretations, conclusions, and methods of presentation.
Please forward any response to William F. Hunt, Jr., (MD-14) U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Monitoring and Data Analysis Division,
Research Triangle Park, N. C. 27711.
The Monitoring and Data Analysis Division would like to acknowledge
William F. Hunt, Jr., for the overall management, coordination, and
direction given in assembling this report. Special mention should also
be given to Helen Hinton for typing the report and Alison Pollack,
Systems Applications, Incorporated for the calculation of confidence
intervals and the preparation of graphics.
The following people are recognized for their contributions to
each of the sections of the report as principal authors:
Neligan
Neil H. Frank, and
Section 1 - William F. Hunt, Jr. and Robert E
Section 2 - William F. Hunt, Jr.
Section 3 - Thomas C. Curran, Robert B. Faoro
Warren Freas
Section 4 - William F. Hunt, Jr. and Robert B. Faoro
Section 5 - Stan Sleva, Neil Berg, David Lutz, George Manire,
and Dennis Shipman
Also deserving special thanks are Warren Freas for assembling the
air quality data base, Chuck Mann and Jake Summers for the emission
trend analyses, and David Henderson and Coe Owen of EPA Region IX for
providing us with their computer software to generate the air quality
maps of the United States used in this report.
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CONTENTS
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS vi i
LIST OF TABLES xvii
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1-1
1.1 INTRODUCTION 1-2
1 .2 MAJOR FINDINGS 1-3
1.3 REFERENCES 1-14
2. INTRODUCTION 2-1
2.1 DATABASE 2-3
2.2 TREND STATISTICS 2-4
2.3 REFERENCES 2-8
3. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL TRENDS IN CRITERIA POLLUTANTS 3-1
3.1 TRENDS IN TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATE 3-5
3.2 TRENDS IN SULFUR DIOXIDE 3-12
3.3 TRENDS IN CARBON MONOXIDE 3-21
3.4 TRENDS IN NITROGEN DIOXIDE 3-28
3.5 TRENDS IN OZONE 3-34
3.6 TRENDS IN LEAD 3-42
3.7 REFERENCES 3-49
4. AIR QUALITY LEVELS IN STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL
AREAS 4-1
4.1 SUMMARY STATISTICS 4-1
4.2 AIR QUALITY SMSA COMPARISONS 4-2
4.2 REFERENCES 4-3
5. TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEN URBANIZED AREAS 5-1
5.1 BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS URBANIZED AREA 5-4
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5.2 NEW YORK, NEW YORK-NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY URBANIZED AREA 5-9
5.3 PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA-NEW JERSEY
URBANIZED AREA 5-14
5.4 ATLANTA, GEORGIA URBANIZED AREA 5-19
5.5 CHICAGO, ILLINOIS-NORTHWESTERN INDIANA URBANIZED
AREA 5-24
5.6 HOUSTON, TEXAS URBANIZED AREA 5-29
5.7 ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI-ILLINOIS URBANIZED AREA 5-34
5.8 DENVER, COLORADO URBANIZED AREA 5-39
5.9 LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA
URBANIZED AREA 5-44
5.10 PORTLAND, OREGON-WASHINGTON URBANIZED AREA 5-49
5.11 REFERENCES 5-54
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FIGURES
Figures Page
1-1 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Geometric 1-3
Mean Total Suspended Particulate at Both NAMS and All Sites,
1975-1983.
1-2 National Trend in Particulate Emissions, 1975-1983. 1-3
1-3 National Trend in the Annual Average Sulfur Dioxide 1-4
Concentration at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1983.
1-4 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second-Highest 1-4
24-hour Sulfur Dioxide Concentration at Both NAMS and
All Sites, 1975-1983.
1-5 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Estimated 1-5
Number of Exceedances of the 24-hour Sulfur Dioxide NAAQS
at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1983.
1-6 National Trend in Sulfur Oxide Emissions, 1975-1983. 1-5
1-7 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second-Highest 1-6
Nonoverlapping 8-hour Average Carbon Monoxide Concentration
at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1983.
1-8 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Estimated 1-7
Number of Exceedances of the 8-hour Carbon Monoxide NAAQS
at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1983.
1-9 National Trend in Emissions of Carbon Monoxide, 1975-1983. 1-7
1-10 National Trend in the Composite Average of Nitrogen Dioxide 1-8
Concentration at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1983.
1-11 National Trend in Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides, 1975-1983. 1-9
1-12 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second-Highest 1-10
Daily Maximum 1-hour Ozone Concentration at Both NAMS and All
Sites, 1975-1983.
1-13 National Trend in the Emissions of Volatile Organic 1-11
Compounds, 1975-1983.
1-14 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Number 1-11
of Daily Exceedances of the Ozone NAAQS in the Ozone
Season at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1975-1983.
1-15 National Trend in Maximum Quarterly Average Lead Levels at 61 1-12
Sites (1975-1983) and 138 Sites (1980-1983).
1-16 Lead Consumed in Gasoline, 1975-1983. 1-12
(Sales to the Military Excluded)
1-17 National Trend in Lead Emissions, 1975-1983. 1-13
vii
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Figures Page
2-1 Ten Regions of the U.S. Environmental Protection 2-5
Agency
VTM
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Figures Page
3-1 Sample Illustration of Use of Confidence Intervals to 3-2
Determine Statistically Significant Change.
3-2 Illustration of Plotting Conventions for Box Plots. 3-3
3-3 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Geometric 3-6
Mean Total Suspended Particulate at Both NAMS and All
Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals, 1975-1983.
3-4 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Annual Geometric Mean 3-8
Total Suspended Particulate Concentrations at 1510
Sites, 1975-1983.
3-5 National Trend in Particulate Emissions, 1975-1983. 3-9
3-6 Regional Comparison of the 1978 and 1983 Composite Average 3-11
of the Geometric Mean Total Suspended Particulate.
3-7 National Trend in the Annual Average Sulfur Dioxide 3-13
Concentration at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95%
Confidence Intervals, 1975-1983.
3-8 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second-Highest 3-14
24-hour Sulfur Dioxide Concentration at Both NAMS and All
Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals, 1975-1983.
3-9 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Estimated 3-15
Number of Exceedances of the 24-hour Sulfur Dioxide NAAQS
at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals,
1975-1983.
3-10 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Annual Mean Sulfur 3-17
Dioxide Concentration at 286 Sites, 1975-1983.
3-11 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Second Highest 24-hour 3-18
Average Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations at 277 Sites,
1975-1983.
3-12 National Trend in Sulfur Oxide Emissions, 1975-1983. 3-19
3-13 Regional Comparison of the 1975-79 and 1980-83 Composite 3-20
Average of the Annual Average Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations.
3-14 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second-Highest 3-22
Nonoverlapping 8-Hour Average Carbon Monoxide Concentration
at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals,
1975-1983.
IX
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Figures Page
3-15 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Second-Highest Non- 3-23
overlapping 8-hour Average Carbon Monoxide Concentrations
at 174 Sites, 1975-1983.
3-16 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Estimated 3-24
Number of Exceedances of the 8-hour Carbon Monoxide NAAQS
at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals,
1975-1983.
3-17 National Trend in Emissions of Carbon Monoxide, 1975-1983. 3-25
3-18 Regional Comparison of the 1975-79 and 1980-83 Composite 3-27
Average of the Second-Highest Non-Overlapping 8-hour
Carbon Monoxide Concentration.
3-19 National Trend in the Composite Average of Nitrogen Dioxide 3-29
Concentration at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence
Intervals, 1975-1983.
3-20 National Trend in Emissions of Nitrogen Oxides, 1975-1983. 3-30
3-21 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Annual Mean Nitrogen 3-32
Dioxide Concentrations at 177 Sites, 1975-1983.
3-22 Regional Comparison of the 1975-79 and 1980-83 Composite 3-33
Average of Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations.
3-23 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Second- 3-35
Highest Daily Maximum 1-hour Ozone Concentration at Both
NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence Intervals,
1975-1983.
3-24 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Annual Second-Highest Daily 3-36
Maximum 1-hour Ozone Concentrations at 176 Sites, 1975-1983.
3-25 National Trend in the Composite Average of the Estimated 3-37
Number of Daily Exceedances of the Ozone NAAQS in the Ozone
Season at Both NAMS and All Sites with 95% Confidence
Intervals, 1975-1983.
3-26 National Trend in Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds, 3-39
1975-1983.
3-27 Regional Comparison of the 1979-80, 1981-82 and 1983 3-41
Composite Average of the Second-Highest Daily 1-hour
Ozone Concentration.
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Figures Page
3-28 National Trend in Maximum Quarterly Average Lead Levels 3-43
with 95% Confidence Intervals at 61 Sites (1975-1983)
and 138 Sites (1980-1983).
3-29 Box Plot Comparisons of Trends in Maximum Quarterly Lead 3-44
Levels at 61 Sites, 1975-1983.
3-30 National Trend in Lead Emissions, 1975-1983. 3-46
3-31 Lead Consumed in Gasoline, 1975-1983. 3-47
(Sales to the Military Excluded)
3-32 National Trend in Maximum Quarterly Average Lead Levels 3-48
at Both NAMS and All Sites, 1980-1983.
xi
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Figures Page
4-1 United States Map of the Highest Annual Geometric Mean 4-4
Suspended Particulate Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
4-2 United States Map of the Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean 4-13
Sulfur Dioxide Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
4-3 United States Map of the Highest Second Maximum 24-hour 4-22
Average Sulfur Dioxide Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
4-4 United States Map of the Highest Second Maximum Nonover- 4-31
lapping 8-hour Average Carbon Monoxide Concentration by
SMSA, 1983.
4-5 United States Map of the Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean 4-40
Nitrogen Dioxide Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
4-6 United States Map of the Highest Second Daily Maximum 4-49
1-hour Average Ozone Concentrations by SMSA, 1983.
4-7 United States Map of the Highest Maximum Quarterly 4-58
Average Lead Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
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Figures Page
5-1 Illustration of Plotting Conventions for Ranges Used 5-3
in Urbanized Area Trend Analysis.
5-2 Location of TSP, Pb, and S02 Monitoring Sites in 5-6
Boston, MA, 1980-1983.
5-3 Location of 03, N02, and CO Monitoring Sites in 5-7
Boston, MA, 1980-1983.
5-4 Air Quality Trends in the Composite Mean and Range 5-8
of Pollutant-Specific Statistics for the Boston,
MA Urbanized Area, 1980-1983.
5-5 Location of TSP, Pb, and S02 Monitoring Sites in New 5-11
York, NY-NJ, 1980-1983.
5-6 Location of 03, N02, and CO Monitoring Sites in New 5-12
York, NY-NJ, 1980-1983.
5-7 Air Quality Trends in the Composite Mean and Range 5-13
of Pollutant-Specific Statistics for the New York,
NY-NJ Urbanized Area, 1980-1983.
5-8 Location of TSP, Pb, and S02 Monitoring Sites in 5-16
Philadelphia, PA-NJ, 1980-1983.
5-9 Location of 03, N02, and CO Monitoring Sites in 5-17
Philadelphia, PA-NJ, 1980-1983.
5-10 Air Quality Trends in the Composite Mean and Range of 5-18
Pollutant-Specific Statistics for the Philadelphia,
PA-NJ Urbanized Area, 1980-1983.
5-11 Location of TSP, Pb, and S02 Monitoring Sites in 5-21
Atlanta, GA, 1980-1983.
5-12 Location of 03, N02, and CO Monitoring Sites in Atlanta, 5-22
GA, 1980-1983.
5-13 Air Quality Trends in the Composite Mean and Range of 5-23
Pollutant-Specific Statistics for the Atlanta, GA
Urbanized Area, 1980-1983.
5-14 Location of TSP, Pb, and S02 Monitoring Sites in 5-26
Chicago, IL-IN, 1980-1983.
5-15 Location of 03, N02, and CO Monitoring Sites in Chicago, 5-27
IL, 1980-1983.
xiii
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Figures page
5-16 Air Quality Trends in the Composite Mean and Range 5-28
of Pollutant-Specific Statistics for the Chicago,
IL-IN Urbanized Area, 1980-1983.
5-17 Location of TSP, Pb, and S02 Monitoring Sites in 5-31
Houston, TX, 1980-1983.
5-18 Location of 03, N02, and CO Monitoring Sites in 5-32
Houston, TX, 1980-1983.
5-19 Air Quality Trends in the Composite Mean and Range 5-33
of Pollutant-Specific Statistics for the Houston,
TX Urbanized Area, 1980-1983.
5-20 Location of TSP, Pb, and S02 Monitoring Sites in 5-36
St. Louis, MO-IL, 1980-1983.
5-21 Location of 03, N02, and CO Monitoring Sites in 5-37
St. Louis, MO-IL, 1980-1983.
5-22 Air Quality Trends in the Composite Mean and Range of 5-38
Pollutant-Specific Statistics for the St. Louis, MO-IL
Urbanized Area, 1980-1983.
5-23 Location of TSP, Pb, and S02 Monitoring Sites in 5-41
Denver, CO, 1980-1983.
5-24 Location of 03, NO?, and CO Monitoring Sites in 5-42
Denver, CO, 1980-1983.
5-25 Air Quality Trends in the Composite Mean and Range 5-43
of Pollutant-Specific Statistics for the Denver,
CO Urbanized Area, 1980-1983.
5-26 Location of TSP, Pb, and S02 Monitoring Sites in Los 5-46
Angeles, CA, 1980-1983.
5-27 Location of 03, N02, and CO Monitoring Sites in Los 5-47
Angeles, CA, 1980-1983.
5-28 Air Quality Trends in the Composite Mean and Range of 5-48
Pollutant-Specific Statistics for the Los Angeles-
Long Beach, CA Urbanized Area, 1980-1983.
5-29 Location of TSP, Pb, and S02 Monitoring Sites in 5-51
Portland, OR-WA, 1980-1983.
xiv
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Figures Page
5-30 Location of 03, N02, and CO Monitoring Sites in Portland, 5-52
OR-WA, 1980-1983.
5-31 Air Quality Trends in the Composite Mean and Range of 5-53
Pollutant-Specific Statistics for the Portland, OR-WA
Urbanized Area, 1980-1983.
xv
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TABLES
Tables Page
2-1 National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). 2-2
2-2 Comparison of Regional Population and the 2-6
Distribution of Trend Sites by Pollutant.
3-1 National Particulate Emission Estimates, 3-9
1975-1983.
3-2 National Sulfur Oxide Emission Estimates, 3-19
1975-1983.
3-3 National Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimates, 3-25
1975-1983.
3-4 National Nitrogen Oxide Emission Estimates, 3-30
1975-1983.
3-5 National Volatile Organic Compound Oxide 3-39
Emission Estimates, 1975-1983.
3-6 National Lead Emission Estimates, 1975-1983. 3-46
4-1 Air Quality Summary Statistics and Their 4-2
Associated National Ambient Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS).
4-2 Highest Annual Geometric Mean Suspended 4-5
Particulate Concentration by SMSA, 1981-1983.
4-3 Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean Sulfur Dioxide 4-14
Concentration by SMSA, 1981-1983.
4-4 Highest Second Maximum 24-hour Average Sulfur 4-23
Dioxide Concentration by SMSA, 1981-1983.
4-5 Highest Second Maximum Nonoverlapping 8-hour 4-32
Average Carbon Monoxide Concentration by SMSA,
1981-1983.
4-6 Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean Nitrogen Dioxide 4-41
Concentration by SMSA, 1981-1983.
4-7 Highest Second Daily Maximum 1-hour Average Ozone 1-50
Concentration by SMSA, 1981-1983.
xv ii
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Tables Page
4-8 Highest Maximum Quarterly Average Lead Concentration 4-59
by SMSA, 1981-1983.
5-1 Air Quality Trend Statistics and Their Associated 5-3
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
xvm
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NATIONAL AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS TRENDS REPORT, 1983
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1-1
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NATIONAL AIR QUALITY AND EMISSIONS TRENDS REPORT, 1983
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.1 INTRODUCTION
National long-term (1975 through 1983) improvements can be seen
for sulfur dioxide ($02), carbon monoxide (CO), and lead (Pb). Similar
improvements have been documented in earlier air quality trends reports1"10
issued by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Improvements can
also be seen for nitrogen dioxide (N02) in the period 1979 through 1983
and for total suspended particulate (TSP) between 1978 and 1983. In
contrast to the other pollutants, ozone has increased slightly between
1979 and 1983 and has sharply increased between 1982 and 1983 through a
combination of an increase in volatile organic chemical (VOC) emissions
and meteorology which was generally more conducive to ozone formation in
1983 than in 1981 and 1982.
The trend in 03 is complicated by a major drop in measured
concentration levels which occurred between 1978 and 1979. largely due
to a change in the 03 measurement calibration procedure. Therefore,
special attention is given to the 1979 through 1982 period, because the
change in the calibration procedure is not an influence during this
period.
The trend in TSP is complicated by the fact that the glass fiber
filters used to collect TSP data were changed in 1978, 1979, and again in
1982. Although the filters used in 1978, 1982 and 1983 were comparable, the
filters used during 1979, 1980 and 1981 were different.12,13 Therefore,
special attention is given to the trend from 1978 to 1983, with less
credence given to the intervening years.
In the ambient air quality trend analyses which follow, the National
Air Monitoring Stations (NAMS) are compared with all the air monitoring
sites meeting trends criteria. The NAMS provide accurate and timely
data to EPA from a stream-lined, high quality, more cost-effective,
national air monitoring network. They are generally located in areas with
high pollutant concentrations and high population exposure. Because
the NAMS are located in the more heavily polluted areas, the pollutant-
specific trend lines for the NAMS are higher than the trend lines for
all the trend sites taken together. In general, the rates of improvement
observed at the NAMS are very similar to the rates of improvement
observed at all the trend sites.
All of the ambient air quality trend analyses, which follow,
are based on monitoring sites which recorded at least 7 of the 9 years
of data in the period 1975 to 1983. Each year had to satisfy an annual
data completeness criteria, which is discussed in Section 2.1, Data
Base.
1-2
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1.2 MAJOR FINDINGS
Total Suspended Participate (TSP) - Annual average TSP levels
measured at 1510 sites decreased 20 percent between 1975 and 1983
(Figure 1-1). This corresponds to a 33 percent decrease in estimated
TSP emissions for the same period (Figure 1-2). TSP air quality levels
generally do not improve in direct proportion to estimated emissions
reductions, because air quality levels are influenced by factors such
as natural dust, reintrained street dust, construction activity, etc.,
which are not included in the emissions estimates. Since 1977, the
glass filters used throughout the nation at TSP monitoring sites have
been centrally procured by EPA for the State and local agencies in
order to obtain uniformity in TSP collection nationwide at reduced
cost. The filters used in 1979, 1980 and 1981 were found to record
higher values than the filters used in 1978 and 1982, because of higher
filter alkalinity, which is related to artifact error.1Z," The filters
used in 1978, 1982 and 1983 were supplied by the same manufacturer and
found to be comparable based on similar alkalinity levels. Therefore,
although the air quality values for 1979, 1980 and 1981 are probably
biased high, the trend between 1978 and 1983 is valid. The air quality
improvement between 1978 and 1983 is due not only to reductions in TSP
emissions, but also to more favorable meteorology in 1983. An analysis
of meteorological conditions for 1983 indicated a potential for lower
TSP concentrations due to abnormally high precipitation.
i
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HBMS 51T£5 1339>
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flu sires nsiei
1979-1981 averages may be too high (see Text)
197S 1976 1977 1978 1979 1930 1581
FIGURE 1-1. NflTIONRL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE HVERflGE OF THE
GEOMETRIC MEflN TOTBL SUSPENDED PflRTICULflTE
flT BOTH HUMS UNO BLL SITES. 1975 - 1963.
FUEL COHBU5T10N
tftSfl INDUSTKlftL FflOCESSES KVO SDL JD HPSTE RND ftJSCfi^ff'CCM
UUI1J b.^1
FIGURE 1-2. NHTIONHL TREND IN PRRTICULHTE EMISSIONS. 1975-1=53
1-3
-------
Sulfur Dioxide (SO?) - Annual average SOg levels measured at 286
sites with continuous SO?, monitors decreased 36 percent from 1975 to
1983 (Figure 1-3). A comparable decrease of 43 percent was observed in
the trend in the composite average of the second maximum 24-hour averages
(Figure 1-4). An even greater improvement was observed in the estimated
number of exceedances of the 24-hour standard, which decreased 92
percent (Figure 1-5). Correspondingly, there was a 19 percent drop in
sulfur oxide emissions (Figure 1-6). The difference between emissions
and air quality trends arises because the use of high sulfur fuels was
shifted from power plants in urban areas, where most of the monitors
are, to power plants in rural areas which have fewer monitors. Further,
the residential and commercial areas, where the monitors are located,
have shown sulfur oxide emission decreases comparable to 302 a1r q"311'^
improvements. These decreases in sulfur oxide emissions are due to a
combination of energy conservation measures and the use of cleaner
fuels in the residential and commercial areas.
-WW5 SITES 1891
-ULL S/rjTS 12861
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1930 1931 1982 1983
-HUMS sirfs 1851
"RLL 5/Tf5 12771
1975 1976 1977 197S 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
rrm
FIGURE 1-3. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE flNNUflL flVERHGE SULFUR DIOXIDE
CONCENTRATION flT BOTH NflHS flND SIL SITES. 1375 - 1983.
FICURE 1-1. NflTIONflL TREND [N THE COMPOSITE flVERflGE OF THE
SECOND-HIGHEST 24-HOUR SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRflTION
flT BOTH NHNS flND flLL SITES. 1975 - 1983.
1-4
-------
• KRMS S1TCS IBS I
-flit 5/7T5 ^77;
0. 76
JS75 JS7S 1977 1S7B 1979 1981 JSSJ
rfart
FIGURE 1-5. NRTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE fWESBGE OF THE ESTIK'TED
NUMBER OF EXCEEDBNCES OF THE Z^-HOUR SULFUR DIOXIDE NR=as
fiT BOTH NflKS BND flLL SITES, 1975 - 1963.
575 J97B 1977 1978 1979 J9B0 1981 19B2 1983
TRRHSPORT/ITION
FUEL COHBUST1ON
FIGURE 1-6. NflTIONflL TREND IN SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS. 1975-1983.
1-5
-------
Carbon Monoxide (CO) - Nationally, the second highest non-overlapping
8-hour average CO levels at 174 sites decreased at a rate of approximately
5 percent per year, with an overall reduction of 33 percent between
1975 and 1983 although there was little change between 1982 and 1983
(Figure 1-7). An even greater improvement was observed in the estimated
number of exceedances, which decreased 87 percent (Figure 1-8). CO
emissions decreased 16 percent during the same period (Figure 1-9).
Because CO monitors are typically located to identify potential problems,
they are likely to be placed in traffic saturated areas that may not
experience significant increases in vehicle miles of travel. As a
result, the air quality levels at these locations generally improve at
a rate faster than the nationwide reduction in emissions.
I
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8
B.B
1.0
2.0
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-••« 7. 91
\
\
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•NRMS 5/7T5 1121
•RLL SITES 11741
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I
1975 1976 1977 1978
1979
YEPK
1980 1981 1982 J983
FIGURE 1-7. NRTIONRL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERRGE OF THE
SECOND HIGHEST NONOVERLflPPING 8-HOUR RVERflGE CflRBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATION
RT BOTH NRMS RND RLL SITES, 1975 - 1983.
1-6
-------
7. 7
1S75 1976 1S77 197S
IS? 9
YfPR
1993 1SS1 19S?
FIGURE 1-8. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE BVERflGE Or THE ESTWED
NUMBER OF EXCEEDfiKCES OF THE 8-HOUR CRRBON MONOXIDE
flT BOTH NflUS fl\0 flLL SITES. 1S75 - ISS3.
fc
<0
975 197S 1977 1978 1979 I960 1981 1982 1983
TKRNSfORTfiTIOH
INDUSTRIE processes
gJIJI SOLID HHSTf. rUfi COMBUSTION HMD HlSCCLLRNfOUS
FIGURE 1-9. NflTIONRL TREND IN EMISSIONS OF CfiRBON MONOXIDE. 1S75-19S3.
1-7
-------
Nitrogen Dioxide (NOg) - Annual average N02 levels, measured at
177 sites, Increased from 1975 to 1979 and then began declining
(Figure 1-10). The 1983 ambient NOg levels are 4 percent less than the
1975 levels. While the trend pattern in the estimated nationwide
emissions of nitrogen oxides is similar to the N02 air quality trend
pattern, nitrogen oxides emissions increased 2 percent between 1975 and
1983 (Figure 1-11). Between 1979 and 1983 both ambient N02 levels and
nitrogen oxide emissions showed reductions of 15 and 8 percent, respectively
e. 05
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•NRMS SITES 1111
•~f>LL SITES 1177)
.7375 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
YEfiR
FIGURE 1-10. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERSGE OF
NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRflTIOM
RT BOTH NPMS flND flLL SITES. 1375 - 1383.
1-8
-------
I
I
1
£
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
TRRNSPORTFITION
FUEL COMBUSTION
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES. SOLID X3STE flA'P HISCELLRNECU5
FIGURE 1-il. NRTIONflL TREND IN EMISSIONS OF NITROGEN OXIDES, 1975-1983
1-9
-------
Ozone (03) - Nationally, the composite average of the second-
highest daily maximum 1-hour 03 values, recorded at 176 sites, decreased
8 percent between 1975 and 1983 (Figure 1-12). Volatile organic compound
(VOC) emissions decreased 12 percent during the same period (Figure 1-13).
The improvement in ozone levels, however, between 1975 and 1983 is
largely due to the change in the calibration procedure, which took
place between 1978 and 1979. In the period following the calibration
change (1979 to 1983), ozone levels increased slightly, 1 percent,
between 1979 and 1983, and sharply, 12 percent, between 1982 and 1983.
The increase between 1982 and 1983 appears to be due to a combination
of an increase of 3 percent in VOC emissions and meteorological conditions
which were more conducive to ozone formation in 1983 than in 1981 and
1982. The increase was observed all across the United States with the
exception of the Northwestern States (EPA Region X). The patterns
observed in changing ozone levels are similarly observed in the estimated
number of daily exceedances of the ozone standard in the ozone season,
which increased 6 percent between 1979 and 1983 and 46 percent between
1982 and 1983 (Figure 1-14).
e. is
i. is
I
e. 12
g.je
k.
O
e.e
e.e
e.a
r. IBS
ISfQ- .'•" 'O - • —9- ®
wags
• NOUS SITCS 1621
-ffLL SITES 11761
J97S 1S7S 1977 1978 J979 198B 19!} 13S
TEftK
1S£S
FIGURE 1-12. NfiTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE SVERflGE CF THE
SECOND HIGHEST DRILY HfiXIK'JM l-HOUR OZONE CON'CENTSflTION
RT BOTH NRMS BND flU SITES. 1S75 - 1S83.
1-10
-------
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1961 1982 1983
TRRNSPORTRTION
INDUS TRlfiL PROCESSES
SOLID MffSTE. FUEL COMBUSTION
FIND MlSCCLLflNEOUS
NONINDUSTRIIL OKGKH1C SOLVENT
Figure 1-13. NRTIONHL TREND IN EMISSIONS OF
VOLflTILE ORGflNIC COMPOUNDS. 1975-1983.
I
^ 15.0
C5
IB. 3
•NfffS SITES 16!)
•flLL SITES 11761
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1981 13SJ 1982 19S3
TEPR
1-14. NfmoNftL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flvERflGE OF THE
NUMBER OF DfllLY EXCEEDRNCES OF THE OZONE NR3CS IN THE
OZONE SEflSON flT BOTH NfiMS RND flLL SITES. 1975 - 1983.
1-11
-------
Lead (PB) - The composite maximum quarterly average of ambient
lead levels, recorded at 61 urban sites, decreased 67 percent between
1975 and 1983 (Figure 1-15). This sample of sites satisfied a minimum
of 7 years of data 1n the 1975-83 time period and were heavily weighted
by sites in Texas (39 percent). In all, a total of only ten states were
represented in the sample. In order to increase the number of sites
and their geographical representativeness lead trends were studied
again over the 1980-83 time period. A total of 138 urban sites from 28
states satisfied the minimum data requirement of at least 3 out of the
4 years of data. An improvement in ambient lead concentrations of 34
percent was observed at these sites and for the 61 sites mentioned
above over this same 1980-83 period. Even this larger group of sites
was disproportionately weighted by sites in Arizona, California, Minnesota,
Pennsylvania, and Texas. These five states accounted for 52 percent of
the 138 sites represented. The lead consumed in gasoline dropped 75
percent from 1975-83, primarily due to the use of unleaded gasoline in
catalyst equipped cars and the reduced lead content in leaded gasoline
(Figure 1-16). Likewise, trends in national lead emissions showed a
drop of 68 percent (Figure 1-17).
61 SITES fl975 - 19331
• 138 5/7T5 nsae - 19331
1975 197S 197? 1973
197S
rea/t
1930 1981 1982 1983
1975 1976 1977 1978
1S79
rta/t
1980 1981 19S2 19S3
FIGURE 1-15. NRTIONfll TREND IN HflXIMUM QUARTERLY flVERdOE
LEHD LEVELS PIT 61 SITES U97S - 19831 SNO 138 SITES '1382 - l=5tl.
FIGURE 1-16. LEflD CONSUMED IN GPSOLINE, 1975 - 1983.
(SHIES TO THE HILITflRr EXCLUOEOI
1-12
-------
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
TRANSPORTATION
FUEL COMBUSTION
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
SOLID HRSTE
FIGURE 1-17. NRTIONRL TREND IN LERD EMISSIONS, 1975-1983.
1-13
-------
1.3 REFERENCES
1. The National Air Monitoring Program: Air Quality and Emissions
Trends - Annual Report, Volumes 1 and 2. U. S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. Research Triangle
Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/l-73-001a and b. July 1973.
2. Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1972. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards,
Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/1-73-004. December 1973.
3. Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1973. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/1-74-007. October 1974.
4. Monitoring and Air Quality Trends Report, 1974. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA 450/1-76-001. February
1976.
5. National Air Quality and Emission Trends Report, 1975. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA 450/1-76-002. November 1976.
6. National Air Quality and Emission Trends Report, 1976. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality PI anning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/1-77-002. December 1977.
7. National Air Quality, Monitoring, and Emissions Trends Reports,
1977. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning
ancTstandards, Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/2-78-052.
December 1978.
8. 1980 Ambient Assessment - Air Portion. U. S. Environmental Protection
Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards. Research Triangle
Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-81-014. February 1981.
9. National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1981. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-83-011. April 1983.
10. National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1982. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards.
Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-84-002.
11. Federal Register, Vol. 43, June 22, 1978, pp 26971-26975.
1-14
-------
12. Hauser, Thomas R., U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, memorandum
to Richard G. Rhoads, January 11, 1984.
13. Frank, N. H., "Nationwide Trends in Total Suspended Particulate
Matter and Associated Changes in the Meaurement Process," Proceedings of
the APCA/ASQC Specialty Conference, "Quality Assurance in Air Pollution
Measurement," Boulder, CO. October 1984.
1-15
-------
2. INTRODUCTION
This report focuses on long-term (1975-1983) national air quality
trends in each of the major pollutants as well as Regional and, where
appropriate, short-term air quality trends. The national analyses are
complimented with a new section (Section 5) on air quality trends in
selected urbanized areas for the period 1980 through 1983. The shorter
time period was used in the selected urbanized area analyses to expand
the number of sites available for trend analysis. The areas that were
examined are: Atlanta, GA; Boston, MA; Chicago, IL-Northwestern IN;
Denver, CO; Houston, TX; Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA; New York, NY-
Northeastern NJ; Philadelphia, PA-NJ; Portland, OR-WA; and St. Louis,
MO-IL.
The national air quality trends are presented for all sites and the
National Air Monitoring Station (NAMS) sites. The NAMS were established
through monitoring regulations promulgated in May 1979^ to provide
accurate and timely data to the U, S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) from a national air monitoring network. The NAMS are located in
areas with high pollutant concentrations and high population exposure.
These stations meet uniform criteria for siting, quality assurance,
equivalent analytical methodology, sampling intervals, and instrument
selection to assure consistent data reporting among the States. Other
sites operated by the State and local air pollution control agencies,
such as the State and Local Air Monitoring Stations (SLAMS) and Special
Purpose Monitors (SPM), in general, also meet the same rigid criteria,
except that in addition to being located in the area of highest concen-
tration and high population exposure, they are located in other areas
as well.
In addition to ambient air quality, trends are also presented for
annual nationwide emissions. These emissions are estimated using the
best available engineering calculations; the ambient levels presented
are averages of direct measurements. The emission trends are taken
from the EPA publication, National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates,
1940-19832 and the reader is referred to this publication for more
detailed information.
Air quality progress is measured by comparing the ambient air
pollution levels with the appropriate primary and secondary National
Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for each of the pollutants (Table
2-1). Primary standards protect the public health; secondary standards
protect the public welfare as measured by effects of pollution on
vegetation, materials, and visibility. The standards are further-
categorized for long or short term exposure. Long-term standards specify
an annual or quarterly mean that may not be exceeded; short-term standards
specify upper limit values for 1-, 3-, 8-, or 24-hour averages. With
the exception of the pollutant ozone, the short-term standards are not
to be exceeded more than once per year. The ozone standard requires
that the expected number of days per calendar year with daily maximum
hourly concentrations exceeding 0.12 parts per million (ppm) be less
than or equal to one.
2-1
-------
TABLE 2-1. National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
POLLUTANT
TSP
SOc
CO
N02
03
Pb
PRIMARY (HEALTH RELATED)
AVERAGING TIME CONCENTRATION
Annual Geometric
Mean
24-hour
Annual Arithmetic
Mean
24-hour
8-hour
1-hour
Annual Arithmetic
Mean
75 ug/m3
260 ug/m3
(0.03 ppm)
80 ug/m3
(0.14 ppm)
365 ug/m3
(9 ppm)
10 mg/nv3
(35 ppm)
40 mg/m3
(0.053 ppm)
100 ug/m3
Maximum Daily 1-hour 0.12 ppm
Average (235 ug/m3)
Maximum Quarterly 1.5 ug/m3
Average
SECONDARY (WELFARE RELATED)
AVERAGING TIME CONCENTRATION
Annual Geometric
Mean
24-hour
3-hour
60 ug/m3^
150 ug/m3
1300 ug/m3
(0.50 ppm)
Same as Primary
Same as Primary
Same as Primary
Same as Primary
Same as Primary
*This annual geometric mean is a guide to be used in assessing
implementation plans to achieve the 24-hour standard of 150 ug/m3.
Section 4 of this report, "Air Quality Levels in Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA'sh" provides interested members of
the air pollution control community, the private sector and the general
public with greatly simplified air pollution information. Air quality
statistics are presented for each of the pollutants for all SMSA's with
populations exceeding 500,000 for the years 1981, 1982 and 1983.
2-2
-------
2.1 DATA BASE
The ambient air quality data used in this report were obtained
from EPA's National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB). Air quality data are
submitted to the NADB by both State and local governments, as well as
federal agencies. At the present time, there are over 250 million air
pollution measurements on the NADB, the vast majority of which represent
the more heavily populated urban areas of the Nation.
As in last year's report^, the size of the available air quality
trends data base has been expanded by merging data at sites which have
experienced changes in the agency operating the site, the instrument
used, or a change in the project code, such as a change from residential
to commercial. A discussion of the impact of the merging of the air
quality data is presented in each of the individual pollutant discussions.
In order for a monitoring site to have been included in the national
trend analysis, the site had to contain at least 7 out of the 9 years
of data in the period 1975 to 1983. For the urban area analyses,
the site had to contain 3 out of 4 years of data to be included as a
trend site. Each year with data had to satisfy an annual data completeness
criterion. To begin with, the air quality data are divided into two
major groupings -- 24-hour measurements and continuous 1-hour measurements.
The 24-hour measurements are obtained from monitoring instruments that
produce one measurement per 24-hour period and are operated on a systematic
sampling schedule of once every 6 days or 61 samples per year. Such
instruments are used to measure TSP, S02, NC>2, and Pb. For these
measurement methods, the NADB defines a valid quarter's record as one
consisting of at least five sample measurements representively distributed
among the months of that quarter. Distributions of measurements that
show no samples in 2 months of a quarter or that show no samples in 1
month and only one sample in another month are judged unacceptable for
calculating a representative estimate of the mean. A valid annual mean
for TSP, S02 and N02, measured with this type of sampler, requires four
valid quarters to satisfy the NADB criteria. For the pollutant lead, the
data used has to satisfy the criteria for a valid quarter in at least 3
of the 4 possible quarters in a year for the national trend. In the case
of the urban areas, only 1 valid quarter was required in order to maximize
the number of lead sites available for trends.
The 1-hour data are obtained from monitoring instruments that
operate continuously, producing a measurement every hour for a possible
total of 8760 hourly measurements in a year. For continuous hourly
data, a valid annual mean for S02 and N02 requires at least 4380 hourly
observations. This same annual data completeness criteria of at least
4380 hourly values was required for the CO standard related statistics -
the second maximum nonoverlapping 8-hour average and the estimated
number of exceedances of the 8-hour average CO standard.
A slightly different criteria was used for the S02 standard related
daily statistics - the second daily maximum 24-hour average and the
estimated number of daily exceedances of the S02 standard. Instead of
requiring 4380 or more hourly values, 182 or more daily values were
required. A valid day is defined as one consisting of at least 18
hourly observations. This minor modification in the criteria resulted
in a 3 percent difference in the total number of S02 trend sites for
2-3
-------
Finally, because of the seasonal nature of ozone, both the
second daily maximum 1-hour value and the estimated number of exceedances
of the 63 NAAQS were calculated for the ozone season, which varies by
state.4 For example, in California the ozone season is defined as 12
months, January through December, while in New Jersey it is defined as 7
months, April through October. In order for a site to be included it
had to have at least 50 percent of the hourly data in the ozone season.
For all the pollutants, the site must satisfy the annual completeness
criterion, specified above, in at least 7 out of 9 years to be included
in the air quality trends data base and 3 out of 4 years in the urbanized
area trend data bases. The shorter time period was used in the
urbanized area analyses to expand the number of sites available for
trend analyses.
In performing the national trend analyses, each site was weighted
equally. The trend sites can be found in all 10 EPA Regions (Figure
2-1) for TSP, S02, CO and 03. The trend sites can be found in 8 of the
10 Regions for N02 and 5 Regions for lead. A comparison was made between
EPA Regional population and the distribution of trend sites by pollutant
(Table 2-2). Spearman rank correlation coefficients were computed5,
relating the 1980 Regional population with the number of trend sites.
With the exception of the lead sites, statistically significant relation-
ships were found between the distribution of trend sites and Regional
population. This suggests that there is a relationship between population
and the distribution of monitoring sites, as would be expected. In
general, the trend sites are located in populated areas which have
experienced air pollution problems. The data base for the lead trend
sites is heavily weighted by concentrations of monitors in a relatively
small number of States. This is addressed in the lead trends section of
the report (Section 3.6).
2.2 TREND STATISTICS
The air quality analyses presented in this report comply with the
recommendations of the Intra-Agency Task Force on Air Quality Indicators.6
This task force was established in January 1980 to recommend standardized
air quality indicators and statistical methodologies for presenting air
quality status and trends. The Task Force report was published in
February 1981. The air quality statistics used in these pollutant-
specific trend analyses relate directly to the appropriate NAAQS's.
Two types of standard-related statistics are used - peak statistics
(the second maximum 24-hour S02 average, the second maximum nonoverlapping
8-hour CO average, and the second daily maximum 1-hour 03 average) and
long-term averages (the annual geometric mean for TSP, the annual
arithmetic means for S02 and NQ2, and the quarterly arithmetic mean for
lead). In the case of the peak statistics, the second maximum value is used,
2-4
-------
ALASKA
HAWAII,
GUAM
ISLANDS
PUERTO
RICO,
.; VIRGIN
Fi gure 2-1 . Ten regions of the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency.
2-5
-------
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because this is the value which traditionally has been used to determine
whether or not a site has or has not violated an air quality standard
in a particular year, and, therefore, the second maximum value is of
significant importance. A composite average of each of these statistics
is used, by averaging each statistic over all available trend sites, in
the graphical presentations which follow.
In addition to the standard related statistics, other statistics are
used, when appropriate, to further clarify observed air quality trends.
Particular attention is given to the estimated number of exceedances of
the short-term NAAQS's. The estimated number of exceedances is the
measured number of exceedances adjusted to account for incomplete sampling,
The emission data are reported as teragrams (one million metric
tons) emitted to the atmosphere per year.2 These are estimates of the
amount and kinds of pollution being generated by automobiles, factories,
and other sources, based upon the best available engineering calculations
for a given time period.
2-7
-------
2.3 REFERENCES
1. Federal Register, Vol. 44, May 10, 1979, pp 27558-27604
2. National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates, 1940-1983. U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-84-028.
December 1984.
3. National Air Quality and Emission Trends Report, 1982. U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-84-002.
March 1984.
4. Rhoads, Richard 6., U. S. Environmental Protection Agency,
memorandum to the Director of the Environmental Services Divisions and
Air and Waste Management Divisions, EPA Regions I through X, December 15,
1982.
5. Dixon, W. J. and F. J. Massey (1957). Introduction to Statistical
Analysis. McGraw-Hill, NY. 1957.
6. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Intra-Agency Task Force
Report on Air Quality Indicators. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC.
Publication No. EPA-450/81-015. February 1981.
2-8
-------
3. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL TRENDS IN CRITERIA POLLUTANTS
This chapter focuses on long-term trends in each of the six major
pollutants. Comparisons are made between all the trend sites and the
subset of NAMS. Trends are examined for both the Nation and the ten
EPA Regions. Where appropriate, trend analyses are also presented for
selected States.
The air quality trends data base has been expanded for all pollutants
by merging data at sites which have experienced changes in the agency
operating the site, the instrument used, or the designation of the
project code, such as residential to commercial. The impact of merging
the air quality data is discussed in each of the individual pollutant
discussions.
The air quality trends information is presented using trend lines,
confidence intervals, Box plots* and bar graphs. This report introduces
statistical confidence intervals to facilitate a better understanding
of measured changes in air quality. Confidence intervals are placed
around composite averages, which are based on sites that satisfy annual
data completeness requirements. The confidence intervals can be used
to make comparisons between years; if the confidence intervals for any
2 years do not overlap, then the composite averages of the 2 years are
significantly different (Figure 3-1). Ninety-five percent confidence
intervals for composite averages of annual means (arithmetic and geometric)
and second maxima were calculated with a repeated measures analysis of
variance followed by an application of the Tukey Studentized Range.2
The confidence intervals for composite averages of estimated exceedances
were calculated by fitting Poisson distributions-^ to the exceedances
each year and then applying the Bonferroni multiple comparisons
procedure.^ The utilization of these procedures is explained in
publications by Pollack, Hunt and Curran^ and Pollack and Hunt.6
The Box plots have the advantage of displaying, simultaneously,
several features of the data. Figure 3-2 illustrates the use of this
technique in presenting the 5th, 10th, 25th, 50th (median), 75th, 90th
and 95th percentiles of the data, as well as the composite average.
The 5th, 10th and 25th percentiles depict the "cleaner" sites. The
75th, 90th and 95th depict the "dirtier" sites, and the median and
average describe the "typical" sites. For example, 90 percent of the
sites would have concentrations lower than the 90th percentile. Although
the average and median both characterize typical behavior, the median
has the advantage of not being affected by a few extremely high
observations. The use of the Box plots allow us to simultaneously compare
trends in the "cleaner", "typical" and "dirtier" sites. Bar graphs are
used for the Regional comparisons. The composite average of the appropriate
air quality statistic of the earlier time period is compared with the
3-1
-------
COMPOSITE MEAN OF AIR
POLLUTION STATISTIC
O
O
O
i— <
I—
O
Q-
95% CONFIDENCE
INTERVAL ABOUT
COMPOSITE MEAN
RELATIONSHIPS: (MULTIPLE COMPARISONS)
• YEAR 4 IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN
' YEARS 1, 2, AND 3
• NEITHER YEARS 1 AND 2 NOR 2 AND 3 ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM 0!^E ANOTHER
• YEARS 1 AND 3 ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT FROM ONE ANOTHER
I
I
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
YEAR 4
Figure 3,1 Sample illustration of use of confidence
intervals to determine statistically
significant change.
3-2
-------
95th PERCENTILE
90th PERCENTILE
75th PERCENTILE
COMPOSITE AVERAGE
MEDIAN
25th PERCENTILE
10th PERCENTILE
5th PERCENTILE
Figure 3-2. Illustration of plotting conventions for box plots.
-------
composite average of the later time period. The approach is simple and
it allows the reader at a glance to compare the long term trend in all
ten EPA Regions.
In addition to the standard related statistics, other statistics
are used, when appropriate, to further clarify observed air quality
trends. Particular attention is given to the estimated number of
exceedances of the short-term NAAQS's. The estimated number of
exceedances is the measured number of exceedances adjusted to account
for incomplete sampling.
Finally, trends are also presented for annual nationwide emissions.
These emissions data are estimated using the best available engineering
calculations. The emission data are reported as teragrams (one million
metric tons) emitted to the atmosphere per year.^ These are estimates
of the amount and kinds of pollution being generated by automobiles,
factories, and other sources, based upon the best available engineering
calculations for a given time period.
3-4
-------
3.1 TRENDS IN TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICIPATE
Total Suspended Particulate (TSP) is a measure of suspended particles
in the ambient air ranging up to 25-45 micrometers in diameter. These
particles originate from a variety of stationary and mobile sources.
TSP is measured using a high volume sampler which simply measures the
total ambient particle concentration. It does not provide information
regarding particle size. There are both annual geometric mean and
24-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standards for TSP. The annual
geometric mean standard is 75 micrograms per cubic meter (ug/rn^) not to
be exceeded, while the 24-hour standard is 260 ug/m3 not to be exceeded
more than once per year. Because the annual mean is a more stable
estimation of air quality, given the EPA recommended sampling frequency
of once every 6 days, only the annual mean is used as a trend statistic.
3.1.1 Long-Term TSP Trends, 1975-83
The 9-year trend in average TSP levels, 1975-1983, is shown in
Figure 3-3 for over 1500 sites geographically distributed throughout
the Nation and for the subset of 334 National Air Monitoring Stations
(NAMS) which are located in the large urban areas. The TSP levels are
expressed in terms of the composite average annual geometric mean.
The curves shown in Figure 3-3 indicate a very slight decrease in
composite levels from 1975-1981, followed by a sizeable decrease between
1981 and 1982 and a small decrease between 1982 and 1983. The NAMS
sites show higher composite levels than the sites for the Nation in
general , but appear to show a similar pattern. The composite average
of TSP levels measured at 1510 sites, distributed throughout the Nation,
decreased 20 percent during the 1975 to 1982 time period and the NAMS
decreased 22 percent. From the curves in Figure 3-3, it appears that
most of this decrease occurred between the measured levels of 1981 and
1982. EPA has found, however, that the TSP data collected during the
years 1979-1981 may be biased high due to the glass fiber filter used
during these years, and that most of the large apparent 2-year decrease
in pollutant concentrations between 1981 and 1982 can be attributed to
a change in these filters.8>9 For this reason the trend line in Figure
3-3 is dotted between 1978 and 1982. Due to the change in TSP filters
which will be discussed in the following paragraphs, the pattern of the
yearly change in TSP between 1978 and 1982 is difficult to assess. On
the basis of comparable filters used in 1978 and 1983, however, the
long-term (5-year) improvanent in TSP is estimated to be 20 percent.
Since 1977, the glass fiber filters have been centrally procured by
EPA for the nation's monitoring sites for reasons of nationwide uniformity
and costs. The competitive procurement process resulted in changes in
the manufacturers of these filters three different times: in 1978, 1979
and 1982. Although important filter specifications were maintained
3-5
-------
1
1
I
70. -
60.
50.
40.
30.
20.
10.
NFtRQS
NRMS SITES 13341
69.0
60. #ffl. SI
fiLL SITES (1510)
I
I
I
I
I
I
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 19S3
YERR
FIGURE 3-3. NflTIONHL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE HVERflGE OF THE
GEOMETRIC MEflN TOTflL SUSPENDED PflRTICULflTE
flT BOTH NflMS flND RLL SITES WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVALS, 1975 - 1983,
3-6
-------
throughout this period some physical characteristics of the filters
varied, which in turn prompted studies by air pollution control agencies
to investigate the possible impact of the filter changes on measured
TSP concentrations. 10,11 Differences in filter alkalinity, cited by Witz et
al.10 of the California South Coast Air Management District appears to be a
plausible explanation for differences in measurements among the different
filter manufacturers. Alkalinity, which was not previously included in
EPA filters specifications, appears to be a better predictor than the
hydrogen ion concentration (pH) of artifact particulate matter formation
(such as sul fates, nitrates and possibly organic acids), which would
inflate TSP measurements.
Using information on the alkalinity of filters provided for the Nation's
monitoring networks from 1977 through 1983, the comparability of TSP
measurements during this time period can be determined.9 Due to high
alkalinity in the filters used from 1979-1981, it is reasonable to
suspect that TSP levels for the years 1979 through 1981 are biased high
relative to the adjacent years. Moreover, the use of similar and less
alkaline filters in 1978, 1982 and 1983, all produced by the same
manufacturer, suggest that the TSP levels for these years may be
compared. The recent trend in TSP levels is therefore discussed in
terms of these data.
In order to provide the best estimate of the improvement in TSP
between 1978 and 1983, 1378 sites were examined which measured TSP in
both years and satisfied the annual data completeness criteria in each
year. The composite mean of the 1378 sites decreased 20 percent with a
corresponding 20 percent for the subset of NAMS.
Figures 3-3 and 3-4 examine the air quality trend at 1510 sites
over the 1975-1983 time period. This was done to evaluate the 1978 and
1983 TSP levels in the context of the 9 year period, which is used for
all pollutants. Using 95 percent confidence intervals developed for
these data (Figure 3-3), it can be seen that the 1983 levels are signifi-
cantly lower than those of 1978. Box plots describing change in the
distribution of annual means at the 1510 trend sites show a decrease
in every percent!le level (5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 90, and 95) between
1978 and 1983 (Figure 3-4).
Nationwide TSP emission trends show an overall decrease of approxi-
mately 33 percent from 1975 to 1983. (See Table 3-1 and Figure 3-5).
Since 1978, however, the particulate matter (PM) emissions have decreased
22 percent which is comparable to the estimated decrease in ambient TSP
levels. The trend in PM emissions would not be expected to agree with
the trend in ambient TSP levels due to unaccounted for natural PM
background and uninventoried emissions sources such as reentrained
dust. The apparent agreement between estimates of ambient air quality
and emissions may be due in part to the favorable role of meteorology
in recent years. An analysis of meteorological conditions for both
3-7
-------
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90
80
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1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
FIGURE 3-4. BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN ANNUAL GEOMETRIC MEAN
TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATE CONCENTRATIONS AT 1510 SITES , 1975 - 1983.
3-8
-------
Table 3-1. National Particulate Emission Estimates, 1975-1983.
(106 metric tons/year)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982
Source Category
Transportation 1.4 1.4 1.4
2.4 2.4
4.4 4.0
1.4 1.2
1.4
Fuel combustion 2.6
Industrial Processes 5.0
Solid Waste & 1.3
Miscellaneous
Total 10.3
1983
1.4
2.3
4.0
1.2
1.4
2.3
3.8
1.3
1.4
2.2
3.2
1.5
1.4
2.2
2.8
1.3
1.3
2.0
2.4
1.1 -
1.3
2.0
2.3
1.3
9.6 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.3 7.7 6.8 6.9
1
1
1
0
575 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
TRRNSPORTfiJION
FUEL COMBUSTION
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
SOLID URSTE RND MISCELLANEOUS
FIGURE 3-5. NRTIONRL TREND IN PRRTICULflTE EMISSIONS. 1975-1983.
3-9
-------
1982 and 1983 indicated a potential for lower TSP concentrations due to
abnormally high precipitation. This would have had the effect of
minimizing fugitive dust entrainment and washing particles out of the
air.
The reduction in particulate emissions occurred primarily because
of the reductions in industrial processes. This is attributed to a
combination of installation of control equipment and reduced industrial
activity. Other areas of TSP emission reductions include reduced coal
burning by non-utility users and installation of control equipment by
electric utilities that burn coal.7
3.1.2 Regional Trends
Figure 3-6 shows a comparison of the change in TSP levels by EPA
Regions in terms of the 1978 versus 1983 levels. All Regions showed
decreases over this time period. The Regions which showed the largest
decreases, (III, V, VII, IX, X) either had large reductions in emissions
or were affected by favorable meteorology in 1983 or were influenced by
a combination of both.
3-10
-------
I
I
I
80.
70.
60.
50.
40.
30.
20.
10.
0.
1978 COMPOSITE RVERRCE
1983 COMPOSITE RVEKRCE
EPR REGION I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
NO. OF SITES 48 172 141 249 438 158 95 76 70 63
FIGURE 3-6. REGIONRL COMPflRISON OF THE 1978 flND 1983 COMPOSITE
flVERflGE OF THE GEOMETRIC MERN TOTflL SUSPENDED PRRTICULflTE.
3-11
-------
3.2 TRENDS IN SULFUR DIOXIDE
Ambient sulfur dioxide ($02) results primarily from stationary
source coal and oil combustion and from nonferrous smelters. There are
three NAAQS for $02: an annual arthmetic mean of 0.03 ppm, a 24-hour
level of 0.14 ppm and a 3-hour level of 0.50 ppm. The first two standards
are primary (health-related) standards, while the 3-hour NAAQS is a
secondary (we! fare-related) standard. The annual standard is not to be
exceeded, while the short-term standards are not to be exceeded more
than once per year. The trend analyses which follow are presented for
the primary standards.
S02 is measured using either a continuous monitoring instrument,
which can collect as many as 8760 hourly values a year, or a 24-hour
bubbler, which collects one measurement per 24-hour period and is
operated on a sampling schedule of once every 6 days. Prior to 1978,
most $02 monitors were 24-hour bubblers. In 1978, the EPA required
that all S02 bubblers be modified with a temperature control device to
rectify a sampling problem: when the temperature rose too high, not all
of the S02 present was collected. Therefore, the S02 sample collected
tended to be underestimated. After 1978, many S02 bubblers were retired.
Therefore, the bubbler data were not used in the trend analysis, because
the instrument modification would complicate the interpretation of the
trends analysis. Further, given the bubbler sampling frequency of once
every 6 days, the S02 peak statistics would be underestimated and not
comparable to those obtained from the continuous instruments.
The trends in ambient concentrations are derived from continuous
monitoring instruments which can measure as many as 8760 hourly values
per year. The $03 measurements reported in this section are summarized
into a variety of summary statistics which relate to the S02 NAAQS.
The statistics on which ambient trends will be reported are the annual
arithmetic mean concentration, the second highest annual 24-hour average
(measured midnight to midnight), and the expected annual number of
24-hour exceedances of the 24-hour standard of 0.14 ppm.
3.2.1 Long-term Trends, 1975-83
The long-term trend in ambient S02, 1975-1983, is graphically
presented in Figures 3-7 to 3-9. In each figure, the trend at the
NAMS is contrasted with the trend at all sites. For each of the statistics
presented, a steady downward trend is evident. Nationally, the annual
mean S02, examined at 286 sites, decreased at a median rate of approximately
5 percent per year; this resulted in an overall change of about 36
percent (Figure 3-7). The subset of 89 NAMS recorded higher average
concentrations but declined at a higher rate of 7 percent per year.
3-12
-------
I
i
K
i
i
i
Q
0.035
0.030
0.025
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
NfifiOS
0.0189
0.0115]
.0096}
•NRMS SITES (891
•ffLL SITES (286)
\
\
_L
_L
\
\
\
1975 1976 1977 1978
1979
YERR
1980 1981
1982 1983
FIGURE 3-7. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE RNNUflL flVERflGE SULFUR DIOXIDE
CONCENTRflTION flT BOTH NflMS RND flLL SITES
WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVflLS, 1975 - 1983.
3-13
-------
I
C)
•-1
Q
0.
0. 12
C)
ft 0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0. 02
0
NfiftQS
^. Jf-0^
?r^>- ^
•NPMS SITES 1851
• RLL SITES (277}
I
I
7575 1976 1977 1978
1979
YEfiK
1980 1981
1982
1983
FIGURE 3-8. NRTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE FWERRGE' OF THE
SECOND-HIGHEST 24-HOUR SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRflTION
flT BOTH NflMS RND RLL SITES WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVflLS, 1975 - 1983
3-14
-------
8
1
IS
I
5!
to
1
2.5 -
2.0 -
NfiMS SITES (851
fiLL SITES (2771
1975
1983
FIGURE 3-9. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE RVERRGE OF THE ESTIMflTED
NUMBER OF EXCEEDflNCES OF THE 21-HOUR SULFUR DIOXIDE NflflQS
HT BOTH NflMS RND RLL SITES WITH 952 CONFIDENCE INTERVflLS, 1975 - 1983.
3-15
-------
The annual second highest 24-hour values displayed a similar decline
between 1975 and 1983. Nationally, among 277 stations with adequate
trend data, the average rate of change was 6 percent per year with an
overall decline of 43 percent (Figure 3-8). The 85 NAMS exhibited a
similar rate of improvement for an overall change of 37 percent. While
the NAMS are higher than other population oriented sites, the national
composite includes not only population-oriented sites, but high concentration
sites at smelter locations, as well. The estimated number of exceedances
also showed declines for the NAMS as well as the composite of all sites
(Figure 3-9). The vast majority of S02 sites do not show any exceedances
of the 24-hour NAAQS. Most of the exceedances as well as the bulk of
the improvements occurred at source oriented sites including a few
smelter sites in particular. The apparent increase in exceedances for
the NAMS during the beginning of the trend period is largely due to a
NAMS site in Salt Lake City, Utah. There is considerable variability
in the number of exceedances at this site with the number of exceedances
in 1976 being considerably greater than other years. This single site
has caused the trend at the NAMS sites to peak in 1976.
The statistical significance of these long-term trends is graphically
illustrated on Figures 3-7 to 3-9 with the 95 percent confidence
intervals included on these figures. For both annual averages and peak
24-hour values, the SOg levels in 1983 are statistically different than
levels observed during the 1970's. For expected exceedances of the 24-
hour standard with its higher variability and more rapid decline, current
levels are statistically different than average exceedances in earlier
years (1975-1979 for the NAMS and 1975-1980 for the national composite).
The intra-year variability for annual mean and second highest 24-
hour S02 concentrations is graphically displayed in Figures 3-10 and 3-11.
These figures show that higher concentrations decreased more rapidly and
the concentration range among sites has diminished.
Sulfur oxide emissions are dominated by electric utilities and the
trend generally tracks the pattern of ambient data. (See Table 3-2 and
Figure 3-12). Emissions increased from 1975 to 1976 due to improved
economic conditions, but decreased since then reflecting the installation
of flue gas desul furization controls at coal-fired electric generating
stations and a reduction in the average sulfur content of fuels consumed.
Emissions from other stationary source fuel combustion sectors also
declined, mainly due to decreased combustion of coal by these consumers.
Sulfur oxide emissions from industrial processes are also significant.
Emissions from industrial processes have declined, primarily as the
result of controls implemented to reduce emissions from nonferrous
smelters and sulfuric acid manufacturing plants.'
Nationally, sulfur oxide emissions decreased 19 percent from 1975
to 1983. The difference between emission trends and air quality trends
arises because the use of high sulfur fuels was shifted from power
plants in urban areas, where most of our monitors are, to power plants
3-16
-------
0.035
0.030
0.025
E
D.
CL
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.035
0.030
0.02J
0.020
0.015
0.010
0.005
0.000
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
0.000
FIGURE 3-10. BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN ANNUAL MEAN
SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AT 286 SITES, 1975 - 1983.
3-17
-------
0.25
0.20
E
a
a.
2 0.15
a:
i—
z
LJ
CJ
•z.
o
u
X
50.10
0.05
0.00
0. 2E
"NAAQS""!-1-!
0.20
0. 15
0. 10
0.05
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
0.00
FIGURE 3-11.. BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN SECOND HIGHEST 24-HOUR
AVERAGE SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS AT 277 SITES, 1975 -1983.
3-18
-------
Table 3-2. National Sulfur Oxide Emission Estimates, 1975-1983
(106 metric tons/year)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
Source Category
Transportation 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9
Fuel Combustion 20.3 20.9 21.1 19.6 19.4 18.8 17.8 17.3 16.8
Industrial Processes 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.2 3.5 3.7 3.2 3.1
Total
25.6 26.2 26.3 24.5 24.5 23.2 22.3 21.3 20.8
I
1
1
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
TRRNSPORTRTION
FUEL COMBUSTION
INCUSTRIfiL PROCESSES
FIGURE 3-12. NfiTIONRL TREND IN SULFUR OXIDE EMISSIONS, 1975-1983,
3-19
-------
in rural areas which have fewer monitor.,. Further, the residential and
commercial areas, where the monitors are located, have shown sulfur
oxide emission decreases comparable to S02 air quality improvement.
These decreases in sulfur oxide emissions are due to a combination of
energy conservation measures and the use of cleaner fuels in the resi-
dential and commercial areas.
3.2.2 Regional Trends
The annual mean $63 levels decreased in nine EPA Regions
from 1975-1983 (Figure 3-13). Only Region VI had a majority of sites
increasing over this time period. These sites were primarily monitors
located in areas with low S0£ concentrations. For the second high
24-hour values, the long-term change showed similar patterns.
0. 030 r-
0.025
I
Cj
0. 020
0.015
0.010
5!
0.005
0.000
EPR REGION
NO. OF SITES
1975-79 COMPOSITE RVERfiGE
1960-83 COMPOSITE RVERRCE
1
17
II
39
III
24
IV
71
V
66
VI
VII VIII
10 5
fX X
32 e
FIGURE 3-13. REGIONflL COMPflRISON OF THE 1975-79 flND 1980-83 COMPOSITE
flVERRGE OF THE flNNUflL flVERRGE SULFUR DIOXIDE CONCENTRRTIONS.
3-20
-------
3.3 TRENDS IN CARBON MONOXIDE
Carbon monoxide (CO) is a byproduct of the incomplete burning of
fuels. Highway motor vehicles are the largest contributing source of CO
emissions. There are both 1-hour and 8-hour NAAQS for ambient CO. The
1-hour average standard specifies a level of 35 ppm not to be exceeded
more than once per year while the 8-hour average standard specifies that
a level of 9 ppm should not be exceeded during more than one 8-hour period
in a year. This section focuses primarily on the 8-hour data because the
8-hour standard is generally more restrictive.
The trends site selection process, discussed in Section 2.1, resulted
in a data base of 174 sites for CO for the 1975-83 time period. This
includes 42 sites that have been designated as National Air Monitoring
Stations (NAMS)
3.3.1 Long-Term Carbon Monoxide Trends: 1975-83
Figure 3-14 illustrates the national 1975-83 composite average
trend for the second highest non-overlapping 8-hour CO value for the 174
trend sites and the subset of 42 NAMS sites. The national composite
decreased by 33 percent between 1975 and 1983 while the NAMS sites recorded
a 31 percent decrease. The median rate of improvement was approximately
5 percent per year with almost 90 percent of the trend sites and the NAMS
showing long-term improvement. Between 1982 and 1983, the pattern was more
mixed with the national composite showing only a 1 percent improvement.
The confidence intervals displayed in Figure 3-14 substantiate this
long-term decrease in ambient CO levels with the more recent levels being
significantly less than those in earlier years.
Figure 3-15 displays the same trend but the box-plot presentation
provides more information on how the distribution of ambient CO levels at
the 174 trend sites has changed during the 1975-83 period. The overall
long-term improvement is apparent although some year to year departures
occur for certain percentiles. While the percent of these trend sites
that meet the 8-hour CO standard each year is not explicitly shown, this
has improved consistently from year to year with only 35 percent of these
174 sites meeting the standard in 1975 and almost 70 percent meeting the
8-hour standard in 1983. Therefore, while the national trend shows
considerable improvement, continued progress needs to be sustained in
many areas.
Figure 3-16 presents the composite average trend for the estimated
number of exceedances of the 8-hour CO NAAQS which was adjusted to account
for incomplete sampling. This statistic is consistent with the long-term
improvement, although the decrease is more pronounced with an 87 percent
reduction for the average of all 174 sites and a comparable 81 percent
decrease for the NAMS.
National carbon monoxide emissions are estimated to have decreased
16 percent between 1975 and 1983 (see Table 3-3 and Figure 3-17). These
3-21
-------
I
rn.
I
16. 0
14.0
10.0
§
I 8.0
§
6.0
1.0
2.0
13.07
'St I
i»—• A 7_ gj —
•NfiMS SITES (42)
' RLL SITES 11741
I
I
I
\
\
1975 1976 1977 1978
1979
YEfiK
1980 1981 1982 1983
FIGURE 3-14. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE RVERflGE OF THE
SECOND HIGHEST NONOVERLHPPING 8-HOUR RVERRGE CflRBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRHTI ON
flT BOTH NRMS flND flLL SITES WITH 957. CONFIDENCE INTERVflLS, 1975 - 1983. '
3-22
-------
25
25
20
e
a
a
o
15
0
Z
O
CJ
X
o
10
o
OD
ct:
20
15
10
T T
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
FIGURE 3-15. BDXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN SECOND HIGHEST
NONOVERLAPPING 8-HOUR AVERAGE CARBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS
AT 174 SITES, 1975 -1983.
3-23
-------
i
S
I
30.0
20.0
I
10. 0
10.9
57.50
NRMS SITES (421
RLL SITES (174)
7. 7
4. 7
\
\
I
I
J_
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
YERR
FIGURE 3-16. NflTIONHL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE HVERflGE OF THE
ESTIMRTED NUMBER OF EXCEEDflNCES OF THE 8-HOUR CflRBON MONOXIDE NflflQS
flT BOTH NflMS FIND flLL SITES WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVflLS, 1975 - 1983,
3-24
-------
Table 3-3. National Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimates, 1975-1983.
(106 metric tons/year)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
Source Category
Transportation 62.0 64.3 61.1 60.4 55.9 52.7 51.6 48.1
7.1 7.2 7.1 7.1 6.3 5.9 4.4
13.9 12.8 13.1 14.4
62.0
Industrial Processes 6.9
11.6
Solid Waste, Fuel
Combustion &
Miscellaneous
Total
16.0 14.8
47.7
4.6
13.6 15.3
80.5
85.3 81.1 80.6 77.4 75.0 72.3 66.1 67.6
I
1
8:
to
1
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
TRfiNSPORTRTION
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
SOLID HRSTE, FUEL COMBUSTION RND MISCELLfiNEOUS
FIGURE 3-17. NflTIONflL TREND IN EMISSIONS OF CfiRBON MONOXIDE. 1975-1983.
3-25
-------
emission trend estimates show an increase between 1975 and 1976 followed
by year to year decreases from 1977 through 1982. However, 1983 reflects
a reversal with total CO emissions increasing 2 percent between 1982 and
1983. Transportation sources are the major contributor to CO emissions
accounting for approximately 70 percent of the national total in 1983.
During the 1975-83 period, CO emissions from transportation sources
decreased 23 percent and showed a 1 percent decrease between 1982 and
1983 even though vehicle miles of travel increased 4 percent between 1982
and 1983. This means that the reduction in CO emissions per vehicle mile
was sufficient to offset the 1982-83 increase in vehicle miles of travel.
As noted in earlier reports,13,14 the percent decrease in national
average ambient CO levels has typically been larger than the percent
decrease in CO emissions. Because CO monitors are typically located to
identify potential problems, they are more likely to be placed in traffic
saturated areas that are less likely to experience significant increases
in vehicle miles of travel. The rate of improvement in ambient CO levels
shown in Figure 3-14 slowed between 1982 and 1983 with only a 1 percent
decrease in the national average which is consistent with the relatively
small change in transportation CO emissions between these 2 years.
3.3.2 Regional Carbon Monoxide Trends
Figure 3-18 displays the 1975-79 and 1980-83 composite averages of
the second highest non-overlapping 8-hour CO concentrations by EPA Region.
This indicates that the long-term national improvement was the result of
consistent improvement in all Regions. In each Region, the majority of
sites showed long-term improvement during the 1975-83 time period. It
should be noted that these Regional graphs are primarily intended to
depict relative change in CO levels during this time period rather than
typical levels in each Region. Because the mix of monitoring sites may
vary from one area to another, with one set of sites dominated by center-
city monitors in large urban areas while another set of sites may represent
a more diversified mix, this graph is not intended to be indicative of
Regional differences in absolute concentration levels.
3-26
-------
1
I
Uj
Q
1
I
\
18.
16. -
14. -
12.
10.
0.
EPff REGION
NO. OF SITES
1975-79 COMPOSITE RVERRCE
1980-83 COMPOSITE RVEKRGE
II
31
III
10
IV
10
V
28
VI
9
VII
9
VIII
9
IX
47
X
14
FIGURE 3-18. REGIONRL COMPRRISON OF THE 1975-79 RND 1980-83 COMPOSITE
RVERRGE OF THE SECOND-HIGHEST NON-OVERLRPPING 8-HOUR
CRRBON MONOXIDE CONCENTRRTI ON.
3-27
-------
3.4 TRENDS IN NITROGEN DIOXIDE
Nitrogen dioxide (NO;?), a yellowish, brown gas, is present in urban
atmospheres through emissions from two major sources: transportation and
stationary fuel combustion. N02 is measured using either a continuous
monitoring instrument, which can collect as many as 8760 hourly values a
year, or a 24-hour bubbler, which collects one measurement per 24-hour
period. Both monitors are used to compare average concentrations with
the annual N02 standard of 0.053 parts per million.
In order to expand the size of the available trends data base, data
was merged at sites which experienced changes in the agency operating the
site, the instrument used, or the designation of the project code, such
as population oriented or duplicate sampling. The merging was accomplished
by treating the bubbler and continuous hourly data separately. For
example, if a monitor at a given site was changed from a 24-hour bubbler
to a continuous hourly monitor or vice versa, the data would not be
merged. If, on the other hand, a monitor at a given site changed from
one type of bubbler to another type of bubbler or one type of continuous
instrument to another type of continuous instrument the data would be merged.
The trends site selection process described in Section 2.1 yielded a
total of 177 trend sites, 14 of which have been designated as NAMS. Of
this total, 82 sites used continuous instruments and 95 sites used 24-hour
bubblers. Finally, all California N02 annual means recorded with continuous
instruments prior to 1980 were adjusted downward to account for a 14
percent bias associated with the calibration procedure used during the
1975-1980 time period.15
3.4.1 Long-term Trends: 1975-83
Nationally, annual average N02 levels, measured at 177 sites,
increased from 1975 to 1979, and then decreased through 1983 (Figure 3-19).
The 1983 composite average N02 level is 6 percent lower than the 1975
level, indicating a slight downward trend between 1975 and 1983. The trend
pattern in the estimated nationwide emissions of nitrogen oxides is
similar to the N02 air quality trend with nitrogen oxides emissions
increasing from 1975 through 1979 and decreasing thereafter (see Table 3-4
and Figure 3-20).
In Figure 3-19, the 95 percent confidence intervals about the composite
means of the 177 sites allow for comparisons among the years. While
there are no significant differences among the years for the NAMS, because
there are so few monitors satisfying the historical trends criteria,
there are significant differences among the composite means of the 177
trend sites (Figure 3-19). Although the 1982 and 1983 composite mean N02
levels for the 177 sites are not significantly different from one another,
they are significantly less than the earlier years 1978, 1979 and 1980.
Figure 3-19 illustrates that there has been a statistically significant
decrease in N02 levels between 1979 and 1983.
3-28
-------
0.05
^ 0.04
I-.
1
I
^ 0.03
I
0.02
0.01
NfifUJS
0.034
027<
,0. 03 A
m 026
•NRMS SITES (11)
\
•—RLL SITES (177)
_L
\
I
1975 1976 1977 1978
1979
YERR
1980 1981 1982 1983
FIGURE 3-19. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE RVERflGE OF
NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRflTION RT BOTH NflMS RND RLL SITES
WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVRLS, 1975 - 1983,
3-29
-------
Table 3-4. National Nitrogen Oxide Emission Estimates, 1975-1983.
(106 metric tons/year)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
Source Category
Transportation
Fuel Combustion
8.9
9.3
Industrial Processes, 0.9
Solid Waste and
Miscellaneous
Total
9.3 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.2 9.3 8.9 8.8
10.0 10.4 10.3 10.5 10.1 10.2 9.9 9.7
1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9
19.1 20.3 20.9 21.0 21.1 20.3 20.5 19.6 19.4
I
1
Sfc!
Q
•-,
in
£
I
1975
1976 1977 1978 1979
YERR
1980 1981 1982 1983
TRANSPORTfiTI ON
FUEL COMBUSTION
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES. SOL 1C H1STE RND MISCELLRNEOUS
FIGURE 3-20. NflTIONflL TREND IN EMISSIONS OF NITROGEN OXIDES, 1975-1933,
3-30
-------
Figure 3-21 presents the N0£ air quality trend with the use of
boxplots. The improvement seen in the composite average concentration
between 1979 and 1983 is also reflected across the upper percentiles.
The lower percentiles, however, show little or no change. Between 1979
and 1983, both N02 composite averages and oxides of nitrogen emissions
decreased by 15 and 8 percent, respectively.
3.4.2 Regional Trends
Figure 3-22 shows the regional trends in the composite average N02
concentrations at the 177 trend sites for two time periods: 1975-79 and
1980-83. Six regions showed decreases in the 1980-83 time period while
two regions showed increases. Sites in Regions I and X did not meet the
long-term trends selection criteria due to monitoring method changes,
i.e. replacement of 24-hour bubblers with continuous monitoring instruments,
3-31
-------
u, u/
0.06
0.05
E
Q.
Q.
Z
O
1—
-------
0. 04 r~
I
I
I
0. 03
0.02
0.01
1375-79 COMPOSITE RVERRGE
1980-83 COMPOSITE: RVERRGE
0. 00
EPfi REGION II III
NO. OF SITES 6 15
IV
V
38
VI
23
VII
6
VIII
8
IX
FIGURE 3-22. REGIONAL COMPPRISON OF THE 1975-79 RND 1980-93 COMPOSITE
RVERflGE OF NITROGEN DIOXIDE CONCENTRRTIONS.
3-33
-------
3.5 TRENDS IN OZONE
The NAAQS for ozone (03) is defined in terms of the daily maximum,
that is, the highest hourly value for the day, and specifies that the
expected number of days per year with values greater than 0.12 ppm
should not be greater than one. 03 is strongly seasonal with higher
ambient concentrations usually occurring during the warmer times of the
year. Because of this pronounced seasonality, some areas do not monitor
the entire year for 03 but concentrate only on a certain portion of the
year which may be termed the 03 season. The length of this 03 season
varies from one area of the country to another, but May through October
is fairly typical with the more southern states and those in the
southwest monitoring the entire year while the more northern states
would have a shorter season, such as May through September for North
Dakota. This trends analysis uses these 03 seasons on a state basis to
ensure that the data completeness requirements are applied to the
relevant portions of the year.
The trends site selection process, discussed in Section 2.1,
resulted in a data base of 176 sites for ozone for the 1975-83 time
period. This includes 62 sites that have been designated as National
Air Monitoring Sites (NAMS).
3.5.1 Long-Term Ozone Trends: 1975-83
The composite average trend for the second high day during the
ozone season is shown in Figure 3-23 for the 176 trend sites and the
subset of 62 NAMS. Although comparing the 1975 and 1983 levels shows
an 8 percent decrease for the 176 trend sites and a 12 percent decrease
for the NAMS, this is potentially misleading because most of this
decrease is due to the change in levels between 1978 and 1979. As
noted in earlier reports, this decrease between 1978 and 1979 is largely
attributable to the change in calibration procedure that was recommended
by EPA in June 1978.16 It is difficult to quantify exactly how
much of the 1978-79 decrease is due to the calibration change and
therefore comparisons with the 1978 and earlier data should be viewed
with caution. In focusing on the 1979 and more recent data in Figure
3-23, it is apparent that after two relatively low years, 1981 and 1982,
the ozone levels in 1983 have returned to the levels recorded in 1979
and 1980. In fact, the national average for 1983 falls midway between
the 1979 and 1980 values. Figure 3-24 uses box-plots to display the
same data and illustrates that the entire distribution shifted upward
in 1983 returning to the range recorded in 1979-80. The trend in
estimated exceedances for ozone is shown in Figure 3-25. This is
basically the average number of days during the ozone season that the
level of the ozone standard was exceeded. Again, it is apparent that
the 1983 levels increased, with the average for the national sample of
176 sites falling between the 1979 and 1980 levels and the NAMS actually
being 10 percent higher. As with the other pollutants, the percent
change for estimated exceedances is more pronounced than for the second
highest value; while the national sample showed a 12 percent increase
between 1982 and 1983 for the second highest day, the estimated number
of exceedances increased from 5.7 to 8.3 days, or 46 percent.
3-34
-------
7. 18
0. IB
?
I
7. 12
0.10
0.08
0. 0S
0. 03
0. 02
(176)
\
7575 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981
YERR
1982 1933
FIGURE 3-23. NflTIONRL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERflGE OF THE
SECOND HIGHEST DfllLY MflXIMUM 1-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRflTI ON
fiT BOTH NflMS RND HLL SITES WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVRLS, 1975 - 1983,
3-35
-------
0.25
0.2 =
0.20
30.15
o
LJ
0. 10
o
Nl
o
0.20
0. 15
0. 10
0.05
0.05
O.OC
1975 !976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
0.00
FIGURE 3-24. BDXPLDT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN ANNUAL SECOND HIGHEST
DAILY MAXIMUM 1-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRATIONS AT 176 SITES. 1975 - 1983.
3-36
-------
15.
^
£> IB. 3
£
5!
i
i ,.
16.3
13.20
8. 3
-NRMS SITES 1621
•RLL SITES 1176)
\
I
1975
1976 1977 1978
1979
YERR
19S0 1981
1982 1983
FIGURE 3-25. NflTIONflL TREND IN THE COMPOSITE flVERflGE OF THE ESTIMHTED
NUMBER OF DRILY EXCEEDRNCES OF THE OZONE NRflQS IN THE OZONE SERSON
RT BOTH NflMS RND RLL SITES WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVRLS, 1975 - 1983.
3-37
-------
Table 3-5 and Figure 3-26 display the 1975-83 emission trends for
Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) which, along with nitrogen oxides, are
involved in the atmospheric chemical and physical processes that result
in the formation of 03. The estimated total for 1983 is 12 percent
lower than in 1975 but total VOC emissions are estimated to have increased
3 percent between 1982 and 1983. However, this percent increase in
emissions is much less that the 12 percent increase in the national
average second highest daily maxima. The relationship between ozone
air quality and VOC emissions is complex and meteorological conditions
can have a major influence on ozone levels. As noted previously,
ambient ozone levels increased between 1979 and 1980 even though national
VOC emissions decreased and that this was likely attributable to the
meteorological conditions in 1980 being more conducive to 03 formation
in certain parts of the country.14 jn view of the disparity in the emission
and air quality changes between 1982 and 1983, it is reasonable to consider
what role meteorological conditions may have had in these ozone concentration
increases.
A study in Illinois attempted to reduce the influence that year to
year fluctuations in meteorological conditions had on ozone air quality
trends between 1977 and 1983.1' The basic approach was to develop a
meteorological index to identify ozone conducive days and to use the
number of ozone conducive days in each year as a means of normalizing
ozone trends for the effect of meteorological conditions. The study
found that the number of ozone conducive days in a year in the Chicago
area varied by as much as a factor of two in the years 1977 to 1983 and
that 1983 had the most ozone conducive days. The study also examined
the trend in the percent of ozone conducive days that exceeded the
level of the ozone standard. This percentage showed long-term improvement
from 1977 to 1983, although 1983 showed a reversal and was higher than
1981 and 1982 but still remained below the levels for 1977-80. These
results suggest that, for the Chicago area, 1983 was high for ozone in
part because of meteorological conditions and that, if the effect of
meteorological conditions were removed, the 1983 levels would have
reflected a slight deterioration from 1981-82 levels but would have
still shown long-term improvement for the 1977-83 period.
It is difficult to determine whether this explanation for the
Chicago area ozone trends can be extended to a broader geographical
area. A study of the climate of the summer of 1983 for the Upper
Midwest, an area reaching from North Dakota south to Kansas and east to
Ohio, found that, while June temperatures were near normal, July and
August 1983 temperatures were generally higher than the 1950-80 normal
levels.18 This same study found that cooling degree days for 1983
were 50 percent greater than normal over about one-third of this 12-state
region and that electrical demand in 1983, affected by both air
conditioning and irrigation needs, was generally higher than 1982 with
increases of 14-25 percent being common. However, this does not
quantitatively evaluate the impact of meteorology on ozone trends.
It would be ideal to explain the national ozone trends in terms of a
national ozone potential index based upon the prevailing meteorological
condition. Because of the complexity of the ozone problem, such an
3-38
-------
Table 3-5. Volatile Organic Compound National Emission
Estimates, 1975-1983.
Source Category
Transportation
1975
10.3
Industrial Processes 8.1
Solid Waste, Fuel 2.4
Combustion and
Mi scellaneous
Nonindustrial Organic 1.9
Solvent Use
metric tons/year)
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
10.4 10.0 9.8 8.9 8.2 8.0 7.5 7.2
8.7 9.0 9.6 9.5 8.9 8.0 7.1 7.5
2.8 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.6
1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.6
Total
22.7 23.8 23.6 24.2 23.5 22.3 21.0 19.4 19.9
T975 1976 1977 1978 1979
1980 1981 1982 1983
TRANSPORTATION
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
SOLID HfiSTE, FUEL COMBUSTION
FIND MISCELLANEOUS
NONINDUSTRIRL OR CRN 1C SOLVENT
FIGURE 3-26. NRTIQNflL TREND IN EMISSION OF
VOLATILE ORGRNIC COMPOUNDS. 1975-1983.
3-39
-------
index has not been developed and it is probably debatable whether it
would be possible to construct such an index. The meteorological
conditions that describe an ozone conducive day in one area may not be
applicable for another area. However, to at least provide more insight
on the ozone trend, a simplified index was considered using meteorological
information on maximum daily temperature, average 8AM-1PM cloud cover below
20,000 feet and average 8AM-1PM wind speed. The meteorological data was
obtained from the National Climatic Data Center for ten different cities:
New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Houston, Minneapolis,
Denver, Los Angeles, and Portland. Ambient ozone data from nearby monitoring
sites were used to determine site-specific cut-off values for the
meteorological variables. The yearly results for each site were normalized
by dividing by the long-term 1979-83 average for that site and then the
yearly value of the national composite was obtained by averaging across
the ten cities. Obviously, this approach to a national ozone meteorological
index is overly simplistic. In fact, for any particular city the index
is likely to be inadequate but, by normalizing the index for each city,
the relative change from year to year may be useful. The final results
showed that the index was low for 1981 and 1982 suggesting that ozone
levels would be lower. However, 1979 was just as low. The index was
high in 1983 but not as high as the 1980 value which was the highest
for the 1979-83 time period.
Because of the simplifications involved, the meteorological
interpretation of the national trend should be viewed as suggestive
rather than definitive. It is clear that ozone levels increased between
1982 and 1983. Based upon a detailed analysis for the Chicago area, it
appears that the 1982-83 increase in that area is partly attributable
to meteorological conditions and, if the effect of meteorological conditions
were removed, the 1983 ozone levels would show deterioration between
1982 and 1983 but would still be consistent with long-term improvement.
Based upon a simplified national meteorological index for ozone, it is
possible, but not certain, that the same factors influenced the national
ozone trend. Therefore, the magnitude of the ozone increase nationally
(i.e. 12 percent) may be accentuated by the effect of meteorology.
However, in view of the estimated emission increases, the 1983 ozone
levels likely reflect deterioration between 1982 and 1983 and ozone
remains as a pervasive pollution problem.
3.5.2 Regional Ozone Trends
Figure 3-27 contrasts the composite average of the second highest
daily 1-hour 03 concentrations for the 1979-80, 1981-82 and 1983 ozone
seasons by EPA Region. The time periods were selected to avoid the
effect of the calibration change between 1978 and 1979 and to highlight
the effect of the 1983 data. As shown, all but one Region experienced
a short-term increase in 1983. The only exception was the northwest
(Region X).
3-40
-------
I
I
8
I
0.24
0.20
7. IB
0. 12
0.04
0. 00
1979-90 COMPOSITE RVERRGE
1981-82 COMPOSITE RVERRGE
1983 COMPOSITE RVERRGE
EPfi REGION I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
NO. OF SITES 6 19 26 14 40 15 B 7 36 5
FIGURE 3-27. REGIONflL COMPflRISON OF THE 1979-80, 1981-82, flND 1983
COMPOSITE flVERflGE OF THE SECOND-HIGHEST DRILY 1-HOUR OZONE CONCENTRATION.
3-41
-------
3.6 TRENDS IN LEAD
Lead (Pb) gasoline additives, non-ferrous smelters, and battery plants
are the most significant contributors to atmospheric lead emissions.
Transportation sources alone contribute about 80 percent of the annual
emissions.
Prior to promulgation of the lead standard in October 1978,19 two air
pollution control programs were implemented by EPA that have resulted in
lower ambient lead levels. First, regulations were issued in the early
1970's which required the lead content of all gasoline to be gradually
reduced over a period of many years. Second, as part of EPA's overall
automotive emission control program, unleaded gasoline was introduced in
1975 for use in automobiles equipped with catalytic control devices which
reduced emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides.
The overall effect of these two control programs has been a major reduction
in both the amount of lead in gasoline and in the ambient air.
3.6.1 Long-term Lead Trends, 1975-83
Previous trend analyses of ambient Pb data20'21 were based almost
exclusively on National Air Surveillance Network (NASN) sites. These
sites were established in the 1960's to monitor ambient air quality levels
of TSP and associated trace metals, including lead. The sites were
predominantly located in the central business districts of larger American
cities. In October 1980, new ambient Pb monitoring regulations were
promulgated.22 The siting criteria in the regulations resulted in the
elimination of many of the old historic TSP monitoring sites as being
unsuitable sites for the measurement of ambient Pb concentrations.
As with the other pollutants the trend sites that were selected had
to satisfy an annual data completeness criterion of at least 7 out of 9
years in the 1975 to 1983 time period. A year was included as "valid" if
at least 3 of the 4 quarterly averages were available. A total of only
61 urban-oriented sites, representing just ten states, met the data
completeness criteria. Twenty-four of the trend sites were located
in the State of Texas. A total of 138 sites satisfied a trend criteria
for the 1980-83 period.
The mean of the composite maximum quarterly averages and their
respective 95 percent confidence intervals are shown in Figure 3-28 for
both 61 urban sites (1975-1983) and 138 sites (1980-1983). There was a
67 percent overall (1975-83) decrease. The confidence intervals
indicate that the 1975-79 averages are significantly different from the
1980-83 averages. The decrease was 34 percent in the mean (1980-83) for
both the 61 sites or the larger sample of 138 sites. The box plots are shown
in Figure 3-29 for the 1975-83 period. All percentiles basically show
the same overall downward pattern as the mean. The lower percentiles (10
and 25th) primarily reflect sites located in Texas.
3-42
-------
2.2
*
(o 2.0
^
I
1
1
I
1
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
NfiftOS
1.00
• 61 SITES C1975 - 1983)
138 SITES [1980 - 1983)
I
J
I
I
I
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
YERR
FIGURE 3-28. NflTIONflL TREND IN MflXIMUM QURRTERLY flVERflGE
LEflD LEVELS WITH 95X CONFIDENCE INTERVflLS
flT 61 SITES (1975 - 1983) flND 138 SITES (1980 - 1983).
3-43
-------
3.5
3.0
2.5
e
•N,
cn
LJ
IS
2.0
Q
<
LJ
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
LJ
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
0.0
FIGURE 3-29. BOXPLOT COMPARISONS OF TRENDS IN MAXIMUM QUARTERLY
LEAD LEVELS AT 61 SITES, 1975 - 1983.
3-44
-------
The 1975-83 trends in total lead emissions and lead used as a gasoline
additive, based on information respectively from the National Emissions
Data System7 and the Ethyl Corporation23 are shown in Figures 3-30 and
3-31, respectively. Table 3-6 summarizes the lead emissions data as
well. The drop (1975-83) in lead emissions was 68 percent while lead
used in gasoline dropped 75 percent. This compares with a 67 percent
decrease (1975-83) in ambient lead noted above. The drop in lead con-
sumption since 1975 was brought about because of the increased use of
unleaded gasoline in catalyst equipped cars and the reduced lead content
in other gasoline. In 1983 unleaded gasoline sales represented 54 percent
of the total gasoline sales. Although the good agreement between the
trend in lead consumption, emissions, and ambient levels may be more
fortuitous than real due to the imbalanced national sample of trend
sites, it does show that ambient urban Pb levels are responding to the
drop in lead emissions.
Ambient Pb trends were also studied over the shorter term period
1980-83 (Figure 3-32). A total of 138 urban sites from 28 states
met the minimum data requirement of at least 3 out of the 4 years of
data. This larger and more representative set of sites showed an improve-
ment of 34 percent over this time period. This corresponds to reductions
in lead emissions and lead consumption in gasoline of 34 and 45 percent,
respectively. Even this larger group of sites was disproportionately
weighted by sites in Arizona, California, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and
Texas. These five states accounted for 52 percent of the 138 sites
represented. Ambient lead levels have decreased in each of these five
states. Also shown is the Pb trend at the 10 NAMS represented in the
sample of 138 trend sites. The Pb trend at the NAMS sites is similar to
the trend for the entire sample although the average maximum Pb levels
are higher, because NAMS sites are located in areas of maximum Pb emissions.
Interestingly, the decrease in ambient lead levels is so pronounced, that
the 10 NAMS, while few in number, show statistically significant decreases
with the 1981 and 1982 composite averages significantly less than the
1979 and 1980 composite averages.
3-45
-------
Table 3-6. National Lead Emission Estimates, 1975-1983
Source Category
Transportation
Fuel Combustion
Industrial Process
Solid Waste
Total
metric tons/year)
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
122.6 132.4 124.2 112.4 94.6
9.3 8.3 7.2 6.1 4.9
10.3 8.1 5.7 5.4 5.2
4.8 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0
147.0 153.1 141.2 127.9 108.7
59.4
4.0
3.6
3.7
70.7
46.4
2.8
3.0
3.7
55.9
46.9
1.7
2.7
3.1
54.4
40.7
0.6
2.5
3.1
46.9
975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
TRRNSPOK Tfl TION
FUEL COMBUSTION
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
SOLID HR5TE
FIGURE 3-30. NRTIONRL TREND IN LEflD EMISSIONS, 1975-1983,
3-46
-------
1
1
150.
I
50.
171.
_L
_L
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
TERR
FIGURE 3-3i. LEHD CONSUMED IN GflSOLINE, 1975 - 1983,
(SflLES TO THE MILITARY EXCLUDED
3-47
-------
1
1
I
I
I
I
1.6
1.1
1.2
1.:
7.S
0.6
0.4
0.2
NPfiQS
0.93
I f—
7. 35
SITES 110)
•RLL SITES 1138)
\
1980
1981
1982
1983
YERR
FIGURE 3-32. NflTIONflL TREND IN MflXIMUM QUflRTERLY flVERflGE
LEflD LEVELS flT BOTH NflMS flND flLL SITES, 1980 - 1983.
3-48
-------
3.7 REFERENCES
1. Tukey, J. W., Exploratory Data Analysis. Addison-Wesley Publishing
Company, Reading, MA, 1377
2. Winer, B. .1., Statistical Principles in Experimental Design. McGraw-
Hill, NY, 1971.
3. Johnson, N. L., and S. Kotz, Discrete Distributions. Wiley, NY,
1969.
4. Miller, R. G., Jr., Simultaneous Statistical Inference. Springer-
Veriag, NY, 1981.
5. Pollack, A. K., W. F. Hunt, Jr., and T. C. Curran, "Analysis of
Variance Applied to National Ozone Air Quality Trends," presented at
the 27th Annual Meeting of the Air Pollution Control Association, San
Francisco, CA, 1984.
6. A. Pollack and W. Hunt, "Analysis of Trends and Variability in
Extreme and Annual Average Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations," Proceedings
of the APCA/ASQC Specialty Conference, "Quality Assurance in Air Pollution
Measurement," Boulder, CO. October 1984.
7. National Air Pollutant Emission Estimates. 1940-1983. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-84-028,
December 1984.
8. Frank, N. H., "Nationwide Trends in Total Suspended Particulate
Matter and Associated Changes in the Measurement Process," Proceedings
of the APCA/ASQC Specialty Conference, "Quality Assurance in Air
Pollution Measurement," Boulder, CO. October 1984.
9. Hauser, R. T., U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Impact
of Filter Change on TSP Trends," memorandum to R. G. Rhoads, January 11, 1984,
10. Witz, S., M. M. Smith, and A. B. Moore, Jr., "Comparative
Performance of Glass Fiber Hi-Vol Filters," JAPCA 33:988, 1983.
11. Kolaz, D. "Hi-Volume Sampler Filter Comparison Project,"
Illinois Environmental Protection Agency, 1983.
12. Neligan, R. E., U. S. Environmental Protection Agency,
memorandum to Directors of the Surveillance and Analysis Divisions and
Air and Hazardous Materials Divisions, and the Regional Quality Control
Coordinators, EPA Regions I through X, July 25, 1978.
3-49
-------
13. National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1981. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-83-
011. April 1983.
14. National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report, 1982. U. S.
Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Standards, Research Triangle Park, NC. Publication No. EPA-450/4-84-
002. March 1984.
15. California Air Quality Data, January-February-March, 1977,
California Air Resources Board, Vol. IX, No. 1.
16. Federal Register, Vol. 43, June 22, 1978, pp 26971-26975.
17. Sweitzer, T. A. and D. J. Kolaz, "An Assessment of the Influence
of Meteorology on the Trend of Ozone Concentrations in the Chicago
Area," Proceedings of the APCA/ASQC Specialty Conference, "Quality
Assurance in Air Pollution Measurement," Boulder, CO. October 1984.
18. Wendland, W. M., et al. "A Climatic Review of Summer 1983 in
the Upper Midwest." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,
Vol. 65, No. 10, October 1984.
19. Federal Register, Vol. 43, October 5, 1978, pp 46246-46247.
20. Faoro, R. B. and T. B. McMullen, National Trends in Trace Metals
Ambient Air, 1965-1974. U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of
Air Quality Planning and Standards. Research Triangle Park, NC.
Publication No. EPA-450/1-77-003. February 1977.
21. W. Hunt, "Experimental Design in Air Quality Management," Andrews
Memorial Technical Supplement, American Society for Quality Control, 1984.
22. Federal Register, Vol. 45, October 10, 1980, pp 67564-67575.
23. Yearly Report of Gasoline Sales by States, 1982, Ethyl Corporation,
2 Houston Center, Suite 900, Houston, TX 77010.
3-50
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4. AIR QUALITY LEVELS IN STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREAS
The Tables in this section summarize air quality by Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) for SMSA's with populations greater
than 500,000. The air quality statistics relate to pollutant-specific NAAQS.
The purpose of these summaries is to provide the reader with information on
how air quality varies among SMSA's and from year-to-year. The higher air
quality levels measured in the SMSA are summarized for the years 1981, 1982
and 1983.
The reader should be cautioned that these summaries are not sufficient
in themselves to adequately rank or compare the SMSA's according to their
air quality. To properly rank the air pollution severity in different
SMSA(s), data on population characteristics, daily population mobility,
transportation patterns, industrial composition, emission inventories,
meteorological factors and, most important, the spatial representativeness
of the monitoring sites would also be needed.
The same annual data completeness criterion used in the air quality
trends data base was used here for the calculation of annual means. (See
Section 2.1). If some data have been collected at one or more sites, but
none of these sites meet the annual data completeness criteria, then the
reader will be advised that there are insufficient data to calculate the
annual mean.
With respect to the summary statistics for air quality levels with
averaging times less than or equal to 24-hours, measured with continuous
monitoring instruments, a footnote will be placed next to the level if the
volume of annual data is less than 4380 hours for CO, less than 183 days
for S02 or less than 50 percent of the days during the ozone season for
ozone, which varies by stated For example, in California the ozone season
is defined as 12 months, January through December, while in New Jersey it is
defined as 7 months, April through October.
4.1 SUMMARY STATISTICS
In the following SMSA summaries, the air quality levels reported
are the highest levels measured within the SMSA(s). The pollutant-specific
statistics reported are summarized in Table 4-1, along with their associated
primary NAAQS concentrations. For example, if an SMSA has three ozone
monitors in 1981 with second highest daily hourly maxima of .15 ppm, .14 ppm
and .12 ppm, the highest of these, .15 ppm, would be reported for that SMSA
for 1981.
In the case of Pb, the quarterly average is based either on as many as
90 24-hour measurements or one or more chemical composite measurements.*
Most of the maximum quarterly Pb averages are based on multiple 24-hour
measurements. If the maximum quarterly average is based on a chemical
composite, it is footnoted accordingly.
*A chemical composite measurement can be either a measurement for an
entire month or an entire quarter.
4-1
-------
Table 4-1. Air Quality Summary Statistics and Their
Associated National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
POLLUTANT STATISTICS PRIMARY NAAQS
CONCENTRATION
Total Suspended Particulate annual geometric mean 75 ug/m3
Sulfur Dioxide annual arithmetic mean 0.03 ppm
second highest 24-hour average 0.14 ppm
Carbon Monoxide second highest nonoverlapping 9 ppm
8-hour average
Nitrogen Dioxide annual arithmetic mean 0.053 ppm
Ozone second highest daily maximum 0.12 ppm
1-hour average
Lead maximum quarterly average 1.5 ug/m3
ug/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
ppm = parts per million
4.2 AIR QUALITY SMSA COMPARISONS
In each of the following SMSA air quality summaries, the SMSA's are
grouped according to population starting with the largest SMSA - New York,
NY-NJ and continuing to the smallest SMSA with a population in excess of
500,000, Long Branch - Asbury Park, NJ. The population groupings and the
nunber of SMSA's contained within each are as follows: 16 SMSA's have
populations in excess of 2 million, 23 SMSA's have populations between 1
and 2 million and 41 SMSA's have populations between 0.5 and 1 million.
The population statistics are based on the 1980 census.
This year, air quality maps of the United States have been introduced
to show at a glance how air quality vaires among the 80 SMSA's. Figures
4-1 through 4-7 appear just before the appropriate table summarizing the
same air pollution specific statistic. The air quality summary statistics
are summarized in the following figures and tables:
Figure 4-1. United States Map of the Highest Annual Geometric Mean
Suspended Particulate Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
Table 4-2. Highest Annual Geometric Mean Suspended Particulate
Concentration by SMSA, 1981-83.
4-2
-------
Figure 4-2. United States Map of the Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean
Sulfur Dioxide Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
Table 4-3. Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean Sulfur Dioxide Concentration
by SMSA, 1981-83.
Figure 4-3. United States Map of the Highest Second Maximum 24-hour
Average Sulfur Dioxide Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
Table 4-4. Highest Second Maximum 24-hour Average Sulfur Dioxide
Concentration by SMSA, 1981-83.
Figure 4-4. United States Map of the Highest Second Maximum Nonoverlapping
8-hour Average Carbon Monoxide Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
Table 4-5. Highest Second Maximum Nonoverlapping 8-hour Average Carbon
Monoxide Concentration by SMSA, 1981-83.
Figure 4-5. United States Map of the Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean
Nitrogen Dioxide Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
Table 4-6. Highest Annual Arithmetic Mean Nitrogen Dioxide Concentration
by SMSA, 1981-83.
Figure 4-6. United States Map of the Highest Second Daily Maximum
1-hour Average Ozone Concentrations by SMSA, 1983.
Table 4-7. Highest Second Daily Maximum 1-hour Average Ozone Concentration
by SMSA, 1981-83.
Figure 4-7. United States Map of the Highest Maximum Quarterly Average
Lead Concentration by SMSA, 1983.
Table 4-8. Highest Maximum Quarterly Average Lead Concentration by SMSA,
1981-83.
The air quality summaries follow:
4.3 REFERENCES
1. Rhoads, Richard G., U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, memorandum
to Director of the Environmental Services Divisions and Air and Waste
Management Divisions, EPA Regions I through X, 15 December 1982.
4-3
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5. TREND ANALYSIS FOR TEN URBANIZED AREAS
This chapter presents trends in ambient air quality for 1980 through
1983 in ten urbanized areas. The ten urbanized areas included in this
analysis are Atlanta, GA; Boston, MA; Chicago, IL-Northwestern IN; Denver,
CO; Houston, TX; Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA; New York-NY-Northeastern NO;
Philadelphia, PA-NJ; Portland, OR-WA; and St. Louis, MO-IL. These cities
were selected because they were amoung the largest cities in each of the
EPA Regions. Where sufficient data were available, trends are presented
for the criteria pollutants TSP, S02, CO, N02, 03, and Pb.
The air quality data used in the trend statistics in this section were
obtained from the EPA National Air Data Bank (NADB). Additionally, some
data were taken from State annual reports. The monitoring sites used for
the trend analysis were required to satisfy the historical continuity cri-
teria of 3 out of 4 years. Furthermore, each year with data generally had
to meet the annual data completeness criteria as described in Section 2.1.
Although some of the ten urbanized areas had sufficient data to prepare
area trends for the nine year period (1975 through 1983), the period covered
by the national trends discussed in Section 3, several of the urbanized areas
did not have sufficient data to meet the 7 of 9 year data completeness cri-
teria. As a result of this situation and considering the fact that the ten
urbanized areas began establishing fixed long-term National Air Monitoring
Stations in 1980, it was decided to begin the urbanized area trends analysis
in 1980. In subsequent years, 1980 will be retained as the starting year.
The trends analyses are based on monitoring sites located within the
boundaries (except for 03) of the urbanized areas included in the 1980
Census of Population Report prepared by the U.S. Bureau of Census.1 The
report describes an urbanized area as consisting of a central city or cities,
and surrounded closely settled territory (urban fringe). Since the maximum
03 concentrations generally occur downwind of an urbanized area, the downwind
sites located outside of the urbanized area boundaries were also used in the
trends analysis.
Maps of the appropriate urbanized area are included as part of the
discussions on urban area trends. The maps include county and urban area
boundaries and were obtained from the Bureau of Census maps, while the city
boundaries are the best estimates of the actual city borders. The locations
of the monitoring sites shown on the maps are for sites having at least 3
years of data during 1980-1983 and which were used in the trend analysis.
The maps are presented for illustrative purposes to show the spatial distri-
bution of monitoring sites.
Figure 5-1 shows the plotting convention used in trends analysis. For
1980-1983, the maximum and minimum values as well as the composite average
of the sites used in the trends are shown. The maximum and minimum values
are measured concentrations, while interpolated values for missing years
were used to calculate the appropriate average. Table 5.1 shows the
5-1
-------
air quality statistics used in the trend analyses for the ten cities. It
should also be noted on the TSP trend plots for all cities, except Houston,
that the composite averages for 1980-1982 are connected by dotted lines.
As previously explained in Section 3.1.1, EPA has found that TSP data col-
lected in 1980 and 1981 may be biased high due to the glass fiber filter
used during these years. The apparent decrease in TSP concentrations
between 1981 and 1982 can be partially attributed to a change in the filters.
In Houston during 1981 and 1982, a combination of several different types
of filters were used which may have resulted in an unknown bias.2
The air quality data and trends presented in this section should not
be used to make direct city to city comparisons since the mix, configuration,
and number of sites comprising the area network are different. Furthermore,
other parameters such as population density, transportation patterns, indus-
trial composition, emission inventories, and meteorological characteristics
also need to be taken into consideration.
5-2
-------
IHIGHEST AIR QUALITY STATISTIC AMONG TREND SITES
• COMPOSITE AVERAGE OF ALL TREND SITES
• LOWEST AIR QUALITY STATISTIC AMONG TREND SITES
FIGURE 5-1. ILLUSTRATION OF PLOTTING CONVENTIONS FOR RANGES USED IN
URBANIZED AREA TREND ANALYSIS.
Table b-1. Air Quality Trend Statistics and Their
Associated National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)
POLLUTANT TREND STATISTICS PRIMARY NAAQS
CONCENTRATION
Total Suspended Particulate annual geometric mean 75 ug/m3
Sulfur Dioxide annual arithmetic mean (0.03 ppm)
80 ug/m3
Carbon Monoxide second highest nonoverlapping (9 ppm)
8-hour average 10 mg/m3
Nitrogen Dioxide annual arithmetic mean (0.053 ppm)
100 ug/m3
Ozone second highest daily maximum 0.12 ppm
1-hour average
Lead maximum quarterly average 1.5 ug/m3
ug/m3 = micrograms per cubic meter
ppm = parts per million
mg/m3 = milligrams per cubic meter
5-3
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5.1 BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS URBANIZED AREA
The Boston urbanized area, located in the eastern part of the State,
is the largest urbanized area in the State of Massachusetts and the eighth
largest in the United States with a 1980 population of 2,678,762. It
includes all of Suffolk County and the greater portion of Norfolk County
plus portions of Plymouth, Middlesex, Essex, and Worcester Counties. The
urbanized area extends about 51 miles east to west and about 46 miles north
to south at the greatest distances.
The Boston basin, a territory within a range of hills, has rolling
topographical physical features, and is split by the Charles and Mystic Rivers
Because of the confinement, many tall buildings and light industrial, commer-
cial, and residential land use complexes are in close proximity of each other.
Numerous small factories and a great diversification of industries are found
in this area including electrical, food, printing and publishing, transporta-
tion equipment, fabricated metal, and rubber products. Boston is the chief
United States' Atlantic Ocean fishing port. A large network of railroads and
truck lines serve this port.
The meteorology of the area is complex. Prevailing winds are from the
northwest in the winter and southwest in the summer. During the summer, the
land, sea-breeze effect allows pollutants to be transported out over the sea
and then returned to the inland area.
The locations of the monitors used in the pollutant trend graphs are
provided in Figure 5-2 and 5-3. The trend graphs are displayed in Figure
5-4.
5.1.1 TSP Trends
Twenty-two sites were operated during the period 1980-1983, six sites
(three NAMS) had 3 or more years of valid data. There was a 7 percent
decline in the highest TSP levels and a 16 percent decline in the composite
average concentrations comparing the 1980 to the 1983 levels. The trend is
similar to the national trends. The composite average levels for the three
NAMS showed an 11 percent decline during this period. The lowest TSP con-
centrations were measured at a site in a residential area while the highest
concentrations were measured in the industrial areas of Boston. The overall
improvement in the TSP air quality between 1980 and 1983 was 16 percent.
Unlike the national trend, there was no decrease in the geometric mean from
1981 to 1982. As noted in Section 3.1.1, some of the national decrease in
TSP from 1981 to 1982 may be attributed to a change in the filters. In the
case of the Boston urbanized area, the lack of a decrease may be due to the
drier conditions in the northeast in 1982 than in 1981.3
5.1.2 Pb Trends
There were four sites that reported data during the years of 1980-1983;
however, no site met the criteria of 3 years of complete data. The data
from two sites that reported in 1982 and 1983 indicate the Pb levels are
lower in 1983 than in 1982, similar to the national trend.
5-4
-------
5.1.3 S02 Trends
Eighteen S02 sites were operated between 1980 and 1983. Figure 5-4
shows the trend for five sites (three NAMS) meeting the trend criteria.
Comparing the 1980 composite annual mean to the 1983 value, there was a 23
percent decline while the decline seen at the national level is 15 percent.
The high rate of decline in the S02 levels for Boston may be related to
meteorology and fuel conservation. The highest levels were measured at a
site located in the industrial area of Boston and the lowest levels were
measured at a site located in a residential area of Medfield.
5.1.4 03 Trends
Figure 5-3 shows the trends for the two sites (one NAMS) having 3
years of complete data out of the ten sites that operated during the period
1980-1983. The trends in the 03 levels fluctuated during this period; how-
ever, the composite average levels showed increases of 9 percent between
1980 and 1983 and 21 percent between 1982 and 1983. Meteorology in 1983
may have partially affected the higher 03 levels during this year.
5.1.5 N02 Trends
Six sites reported N02 data during the period 1980-1983 and two sites
(one NAMS) had 3 or more years of valid data. Comparing the 1980 to the
1983 levels, there was a 38 percent decline in the composite average levels.
There was a 21 percent decline seen at the NAMS N02 site. To have an inter-
polated N02 concentration for 1980, the reported value for a site was used
although the number of observations was lower than desired. The highest
N02 levels were measured at a site located in an industrial area. The rate
of decline in the N02 levels for Boston is approximately three times the
national rate. The reason for the higher rate is not apparent, and since
the rate was determined from only two sites, it is difficult to draw con-
clusions from these data.
5.1.6 CO Trends
Three (two NAMS) of the ten sites that operated during the period 1980-
1983 met the criteria of having 3 years of complete data. The data reported
from these three sites indicate an increase in the CO levels in this urban-
ized area. In contrast, there was a decline at the national level. The
composite average levels showed an increase of 36 percent between 1980 and
1983. This upward trend is attributed to urban redevelopment and traffic
rerouting as the monitors were in areas where traffic volume increased
significantly. The two CO NAMS showed a 30 percent increase between 1980
and 1983. Generally, the highest levels were measured in heavy commercial
areas of Boston and the lowest levels were measured in a light commercial
and residential complex area of Boston. Although there was an upward trend
in the second highest nonoverlapping 8-hour average, there was a general
improvement in the annual average CO levels between 1980 and 1983.4
5-5
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5.2 NEW YORK, NEVI YORK-NORTHEASTERN NEVI JERSEY URBANIZED AREA
The New York urbanized area is the largest urbanized area in the
United States with a 1980 population of 15,590,274. It includes all of
Essex, Hudson, and Union Counties in New Jersey; all of Bronx, Kings,
Nassau, New York, Queens, and Richmond Counties in New York; parts of
Bergen, Middlesex, Monmonth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset, and Sussex
Counties in New Jersey; and parts of Putnam, Rockland, Suffolk, and
Westchester Counties in New York. At its greatest distance, the urbanized
area extends about 105 miles east to west and about 110 miles north to
south.
The urbanized area is located at the mouth of the Hudson River in the
northeastern part of the United States. As a major ocean port, it is the
busiest in the United States. Industries have concentrated in the urbanized
area because of the proximity to major markets and the easy access to trans-
portation facilites. This urbanized area is the leading manufacturing area
in the United States. The largest manufacturing industries are apparel and
other finished products; printing, publishing, and allied industries; food
products; machinery; chemical and allied products; fabricated metal products;
textile products; leather and leather products; paper products; auto and
aircraft production; and shipbuilding.
The urbanized area is close to the path of most frontal systems which
move across the United States. Extremes of hot weather which may last up
to 1 week are associated with air masses moving over land from a Bermuda
high pressure system. Extremes in cold weather are from rapidly moving
outbreaks of cold air moving southeastward from the Hudson Bay region.
The average rainfall is around 41 inches per year.
The maps showing the locations of the monitoring sites used in the
trend analysis are shown in Figure 5-5 and Figure 5-6. The trend graphs
for the pollutants are shown in Figure 5-7.
5.2.1 TSP Trends
There were 103 sampling sites (52 in New Jersey and 51 in New York)
that reported TSP data during 1980-1983, and of these 103 sites, 54 met the 3
out of 4-year data completeness criteria (29 in New Jersey and 25 in New
York). Figure 5-5 shows the location of the 54 sites, and Figure 5-7 shows
the trend graph of the 54 sites for 1980-1983 in which the composite average
decreased 18 percent as compared to the national average of 22 percent for
the same period. The highest measured concentrations were in the heavily
industrialized areas of New Jersey and the lowest concentrations were in
the residential areas of Long Island. Some of the decrease from 1981 to
1982 can be attributed to a change in the filters (see Section 3.1.1).
5.2.2 Pb Trends
Pb was sampled at 22 sites during 1980-1983. Only one site had data
for 3 years, but the chemical analyses have not been completed for 1984.
Therefore, no trends are depicted for Pb. The available data show maximum
5-9
-------
quarterly concentrations of around 0.5 to 1.2 ug/m3 at traffic-oriented
sites and 0.3 to 0.7 at non-traffic oriented sites. The highest concentra-
tions during 1980-1983 were measured in New Brunswick, NJ near a battery
manufacturing facility (2.12 ug/m3 in 1983.)
5.2.3 SO? Trends
There were 52 sites which reported some data in the period 1980-1983,
but only 26 sites met the data completeness criteria. The S02 levels
decreased 4 percent as compared to the national average of 15 percent
(Figure 5-7). The highest concentrations during the period were measured
in New York County (Manhattan) and are attributed to apartment buildings
using oil for heating. While the overall annual mean levels fell 4 percent,
the composite New York City borough sites decreased about 10 percent, the
remaining New York county sites 4 percent and the composite of the
New Jersey sites increased 2 percent.
5.2.4 03 Trends
A total of 27 sites monitored for 03 during 1980-1983 and 12 of these
sites met the criteria for completeness and were used in the trend analysis.
The trends follow the national pattern in that there was a decrease for
1980-1982 and an increase in 1983. From 1980-1983, the New York 03 levels
increased 7 percent while the national levels were unchanged for the same
period. Between 1982 and 1983, the 03 levels increased 18 percent. The
composite average concentrations were above the NAAQS for each year during
1980-1983, and except for 1982, all the minimum trend sites were also above
the NAAQS.
5.2.5 N02 Trends
The N02 trends for seven sites that met the completeness criteria in
the urbanized area show a slight decrease from 1980 to 1981, and then
increases for 1982 and 1983. The seven sites are a subset of the 21 sites
that reported data for 1980-1983. The overall trend for 1980-1983 was a 7
percent increase, which is the reverse of the national decline of 12 percent.
Part of this increase has been attributed to the decline in usage of the
mass transit system and an increase in vehicular traffic.
5.2.6 CO Trends
There were 23 sites which measured CO during 1980-1983 and 15 sites
met the data completeness criteria. The CO composite average decreased 6
percent as compared to the national decrease of 11 percent for the same
period. The highest concentrations were measured in street canyons in
Manhattan and Jersey City. The New Jersey and New York portions of the
urbanized area showed almost identical decreases with 5 and 6 percent,
respectively.
5-10
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5.3 PHILADELPHIA. PENNSYLVANIA-NEW JERSEY URBANIZED AREA
The Philadelphia, PA-NJ urbanized area is the fourth largest in the
United States with a 1980 population of 4,112,933. It includes all of
Philadelphia County plus portions of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery
Counties in Pennsylvania and portions of Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester
Counties in New Jersey. The urbanized area stretches about 65 miles east
to west and about 50 miles north to south at its greatest distances.
Philadelphia is located in the southeastern corner of Pennsylvania on
the Delaware River where the Schuylkill River flows into the Delaware. The
Atlantic Ocean is 85 to 90 miles down the Delaware River. Philadelphia
handles more shipping than any other port in the United States except for
New York. The industrial growth of Philadelphia was due to its proximity
to coal, petroleum, water power, and other natural resources. The leading
industries in Philadelphia are manufacturing of textiles, carpets, clothing,
paper, chemicals, glassware, oil refining, metal working, ship building,
sugar refining, printing, and publishing.
Concerning the meteorology of the urbanized area, the prevailing winds
are from the southwest in the summer and from the northwest during the win-
ter. Maritime air and the proximity to the Delaware River contribute to
high humidity and temperatures during the summer months. The average rain-
fall is around 42 inches per year.
Figures 5-8 and 5-9 show the locations of the monitoring sites used in
the trend analysis, and Figure 5-10 depicts the trend graphs for the pollu-
tants.
5.3.1 TSP Trends
Figure 5-8 shows the location of 26 of the 36 sampling sites which
met the data completeness criteria during 1980-1983. The TSP trend shown
in Figure 5-10 is almost the same as the national trend in that the decrease
in Philadelphia for 1980-1983 was 23 percent compared to the national
decrease of 22 percent. Also, the 16 percent decrease in TSP levels from
1981 to 1982 is about the same as the national trend which has been attri-
buted in part to the filters used for collecting the samples (see Section
3.1.1).
5.3.2 Pb Trends
There were 28 sites which sampled for Pb in the urbanized area during
1980-1983 and six of these sites are shown in the trend analysis. The com-
posite average of these sites show an increase each year for the 4-year
period. This upward trend is caused by one source-oriented Pb sampler
which is located close to a plant which manufactures lead oxide pigment for
paint. The five traffic oriented sites show a decrease from 1980 to 1983
of 27 percent. This compares with a 34 percent decrease in the national
trend.
5-14
-------
5.3.3 S02 Trends
The S02 concentrations were measured at 23 sites in the urbanized
area. Ten of these sites met the data completeness criteria and were used in
the trend analysis. The 25 percent decline from 1980 to 1983, while greater
than the national decrease of 15 percent, appears to be consistent with
Philadelphia's preliminary estimates of changes in emissions.5 Area sources
and refineries contributed to the S02 levels measured in the urbanized area.
5.3.4 03 Trends
Of the 11 sites that monitored 03 in the urbanized area during 1980-
1983, seven sites were selected for the trend analysis based on data com-
pleteness. The sites follow the national trend in decreases from 1980-1982
followed by an increase in 1983. The result was a 15 percent overall
decrease from 1980-1983, and a 10 percent increase between 1982 and 1983.
Meteorological conditions in 1983 may have been more favorable for 03
formation than in 1981 and 1982.
5.3.5 N02 Trends
Eleven sites monitored M02 during 1980-1983, and the trends for the
seven sites meeting the completeness criteria are shown in Figure 5-9. The
highest arithmetic average and the composite average of the seven sites were
about the same for 1980-1983. The actual decrease in the composite average
was 1 percent, which was less than the national decrease of 12 percent. The
effect of mobile sources (which account for about 50 percent of the nitrogen
oxide emissions) on the N0£ sites may be the reason for the relatively
unchanged N02 trends. Increasing traffic densities in the vicinity of the
sites and decreasing NOX emissions due to the Federal Motor Vehicle Emission
Control Program could account for the stable trend.
5.3.6 CO Trends
Carbon monoxide was measured at 19 sites during 1980-1983 and six of
these were used in the trend analysis. The composite CO levels at the six
sites showed an increase from 1980 to 1981 and then decreases from 1981-1983.
There was an overall decrease of 13 percent from 1980 to 1983 which compares
to the national decrease of 11 percent. The highest concentrations in 1982
and 1983 were from a new microscale site which had insufficient data to be
included in the trend analysis.
5-15
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5.4 ATLANTA. GEORGIA URBANIZED AREA
Atlanta, the capital of Georgia and its largest city, is located in
the north-central part of the State. The urbanized area of Atlanta is the
most populous area between Washington, DC and New Orleans with a 1980
population of 1,613,357. The area extends into ten counties and measures
approximately 40 miles north to south and 35 miles east to west. The major-
ity of the people in the urbanized area live in Fulton, de Kalb, and Cobb
Counties. Approximately 500 square miles of land area are included in this
urbanized area.
The city is the financial and commerical capital of the southeast, the
transportation and commercial center of the region, and an important distri-
bution, manufacturing, educational, and medical center. Since its location
is at the southern extreme of the Appalachian Range, it has become the gate-
way through which most overland and air traffic must pass from the eastern
seaboard to the west. Atlanta is a rapidly growing and expanding area.
The population increased by 37 percent since 1970. Atlanta has moderate
summer and winter weather, with the summer winds from the northwest and
winter winds fluctuating from southwest to northwest. In spite of abundant
rainfall, serious dry spells occur during most years.
The locations of the monitors used in the pollutant trend graphs are
provided in Figures 5-11 and 5-12. The trend graphs are shown in Figure
5-13.
5.4.1 TSP Trends
Nineteen sites were operating for some time during the period 1980-1983
and nine of the sites (5 NAMS) had at least 3 years of valid data. The
general location of these sites is shown on the map in Figure 5-11. Five
of the nine sites were within the Atlanta city limits.
The composite average for the nine sites used to indicate the TSP
trend for Atlanta showed a 11 percent decline, while the national decline
was 22 percent. The 1980 composite average was below the secondary NAAQS
(60 ug/m3) and the highest annual mean was below the primary NAAQS for all
years except 1981. The lower rate of air quality improvement in Atlanta
compared to the national level may be due to its rapid growth and to the
long dry periods in 1982 and 1983. The higher TSP levels in 1980 and 1981
are probably due in part to the filters (Section 3.1.1). The highest
levels were measured at a site located in a heavy commercial area and the
lowest levels were measured at sites located in light commercial and
residential areas.
5.4.2 Pb Trends
One Atlanta Pb site reported data during the 4-year period between
1980 and 1983, and met the data completeness criteria. The location of the
Pb site is shown on the map in Figure 5-11.
5-19
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The Pb levels fluctuated between 1980 and 1983; however, the 1983
highest quarterly level was 50 percent lower than the 1980 highest quarterly
level (Figure 5-13). The 1980 and 1983 Pb levels at the Atlanta site were
similar to the national composite levels. It is difficult to provide any
conclusive statement about the Pb trends due to the sparsity of data.
5.4.3 S02 Trends
Atlanta operated one monitor during 1980 to 1983 and was relocated to
a different site in 1982. Neither site met the data completeness criteria,
and therefore, no trend analysis was conducted.
5.4.4 03 Trends
There were two NAMS 63 sites that met the criteria of having 3 or more
valid years of data and the general location of these sites is shown on the
map in Figure 5-12. For this urbanized area, the ozone season was assumed
to run from March to November. There was a fluctuating trend between 1980
and 1982 and a 31 percent increase between 1982 and 1983, resulting in a 34
percent overall increase in the 03 levels between 1980 and 1983. The com-
posite average of the second highest daily maximum hour was above the NAAQS
for 3 out of the 4 years. Figure 5-13 shows the 03 trends. The meteorology
in 1983 may have been more favorable for ozone formation than in 1981 and
1982.
5.4.5 N02 Trends
There were six sites (two continuous monitoring sites) operating in
1980. Only two continuous monitoring sites were operated after 1980, neither
of which met the data completeness criteria required for inclusion in the
trend analysis.
5.4.6 CO Trends
There were six sites in the urbanized area and five of these sites met
the criteria of 3 out of 4 valid years of data. The general location of
these CO trend sites is shown on the map in Figure 5-12. Data from these
five sites indicated a 20 percent decline in the Atlanta CO levels as com-
pared to 11 percent nationally during this period. The greater percentage
reduction than the national average could be attributed to the initiation
of an automotive inspection maintenance program in 1981.
5-20
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5-23
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5.5 CHICAGO, ILLINOIS-NORTHWESTERN INDIANA URBANIZED AREA
The Chicago urbanized area covers approximately 1300 square miles and
includes 6,770,000 people. It is the third largest urbanized area in the
nation in terms of population. Approximately 75 percent of the urbanized
area population live in Cook County, the remaining 25 percent live in parts
of Lake, Du Page and Will Counties in Illinois and portions of Lake and
Porter Counties in Indiana.
The urbanized area runs from Waukegan (near the Wisconsin border)
around Lake Michigan to Chesterton, Indiana to the east. The southern and
western boundaries of the urbanized area are very irregular. To the south
the area extends as far as Crown Point, Indiana and Park Forest South in
Illinois. Similarly, the urban area extends as far west as Bartlett, West
Chicago, and Napien/ille, all in Illinois.
Economically, Chicago is a major center for transportation,
manufacturing, and commercial enterprises. In terms of transportation,
Chicago has the largest air and rail traffic in the country. Because of
Chicago's location and large manufacturing concerns, it has developed an
extensive highway network for local and through traffic. Additionally, the
port of Chicago on Lake Michigan has developed into an important inland
port for raw materials and port of transfer for the Great Lakes-Atlantic
trade. Among Chicago's chief manufactures are food products, primary
metals (steel) and both elecrical and nonelectrical machinery.
Chicago occupies a relatively flat plains area bounded by Lake Michigan
in the east. The climate is predominately continental with relatively warm
summers and cold winters. Temperature extremes are somewhat altered by
Lake Michigan and other Great Lakes. Annual precipitation is on the order
of 33 inches per year.
Figures 5-14 and 5-15 show the locations of the monitors used in the
trend analysis and Figure 5-16 shows the trends for all the pollutants in
the urbanized area.
5.5.1 TSP Trends
Figure 5-14 shows the approximate location of the TSP sampling
locations operated in the Chicago urbanized area between 1980 and 1983,
that were used in the TSP trend analysis. The TSP trend in Figure 5-16
shows the composite average of 61 out of 97 sites meeting the trend criter-
ia during the period between 1980-1983. Generally, these values are on
the order of 3 to 5 percent higher than the national trend for NAMS sites,
which considering the industrial nature of the urban area is not suprising.
The 20 percent decline in TSP values for the urbanized area is similar to
the national decline of 22 percent over this period (1980 to 1983). While
some of this improvement must be attributed to the change in filters, dis-
cussed in Section 3.1.1, some also appear to be related to reductions in
emissions.
5.5.2 Pb Trends
During the period between 1980 and 1983, 74 sites were operated for
lead in the Chicago urban area. Lead data for many of these sites has
5-24
-------
not been submitted to EPA; therefore the Illinois State Annual reports for
1980-1983 have been used as a supplemental source for lead data to develop
a Chicago area trend.6'9 There were 43 sites shown on Figure 5-14 having
at least 3 years of valid data during the period and used to compute the
composite average of highest quarterly lead concentration. The Chicago
trend for the period 1980 to 1983 is similar to the national trend for lead
with the decline of 38 percent over the 4-year period, compared to 34 percent.
5.5.3 S02 Trends
Twenty-one S02 monitoring sites operated in the Chicago area of which
13 sites met the trend criteria with a minimum of 3 years of valid data.
These sites are shown on Figure 5-14. The composite average of S02 values
in Chicago has declined by approximately 21 percent between 1980 and 1983,
which is 6 percent greater than the national decline of 15 percent. The
higher rate of decline for Chicago may be related to the economic problems
of heavy industry during this time period.
5.5.4 03 Trends
The 03 trend for Chicago is based on the ten sites meeting the data
completeness criteria out of the 28 sites operated during the period. The
location of the trend sites is shown in Figure 5-15. The composite average
of second daily maximum hour concentrations for Chicago shows patterns very
similar to the national trend in that the composite averages decline each
year between 1980 and 1982 with a pronounced 33 percent increase occurring
between 1982 and 1983 (Figure 5-16). As noted in Section 3.5.1, a meteoro-
logical index was developed for Chicago, which suggests that the 1982-83
increase in 03 levels is partly attributable to meteorology.
5.5.5 N02 Trends
During the period 1980 to 1983 there were 56 N02 monitoring sites
operated in the urban area, 17 of which were used for the Chicago N02 trend.
The location of these 17 sites is shown in Figure 5-15. Eight of the 56
sites utilized continuous monitors and the remaining 48 sites used bubblers.
The composite annual average concentrations for the Chicago area are similar
to the national trend for all sites. The composite average declined 20
percent for Chicago over the 4-year period, as compared to 12 percent for
the nation. There is no apparent reason for the comparatively larger
decline in the Chicago area.
5.5.6 CO Trends
The CO trends are based on 4 of the 13 sites operated during the period
which met the data completeness criteria. The location of these sites is
shown on Figure 5-15. During the time period, the CO composite averages
declined by nearly 17 percent from 1980 through 1982 and then increased
in 1983 for a net change of 4 percent. The increase for 1983 appears to be
related to a severe air stagnation episode occurring on February 28 and
March 1, 1983.I1
5-25
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WISCONSIN
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• TSP site used in trend analysis
A Pb site used in trend analysis
D SC>2 site used in trend analysis
0 TSP, Pb, and SC>2 site used in trend analysis
ILLINOIS INDIANA
FIGURE 5-14 LOCATION OF TSP, Pb, AND SO2 MONITORING SITES IN CHICAGO, IL-IN, 1980-1983
5-26
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Urbanized Area
City Area
• 03 site used in trend analysis
A NC>2 site used in trend analysis
n CO site used in trend analysis
° 03, IMO2, and CO site used in trend analysis
H ILRS
MILLS
ILLINOIS INDIANA
FIGURE 5-15 LOCATION OF O3, NO2, AND CO MONITORING SITES IN CHICAGO, IL-IN, 1980-1983.
5-27
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5-28
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5.6 HOUSTON, TEXAS URBANIZED AREA
The Houston urbanized area is the tenth largest in the United States
with a population of 2,412,664. It includes almost all of Harris County
and very small portions of six other counties. The urbanized area extends
about 55 miles east to west and 45 miles north to south and covers a total
of approximately 750 square miles. The City of Houston has a population of
1,595,138 and is located west of Galveston Bay about 50 miles inland from
the Gul f of Mexico.
Houston is a major seaport, particularly for petroleum products and
has many refinery and petrochemical complexes along the Houston Ship Chan-
nel, which runs approximately 20 miles from the Houston center city east
to Galveston Bay. The area is in the Sunbelt, has a mild climate moderated
by the Gulf of Mexico, and is one of the fastest growing of all the major
urbanized areas. The population has increased 44 percent since 1970.
Figure 5-17 shows the location of the TSP, Pb, and S02 sites used in
the trend analysis. Figure 5-18 shows the location of the 03, N02, and CO
sites used in the trend analysis. Figure 5-19 shows the trends of the six
pollutants during the study period.
5.6.1 TSP Trends
The Houston TSP trend was developed from 36 sites which met the data
completeness criteria out of the 47 sites which operated during the period.
Figure 5-17 shows the geographic distribution of the 36 sites which were
used in the TSP trend analysis. The TSP trend in Houston is similar to the
national trend with the first 2 years substantially higher than the last 2
years. The decrease is thought to be significantly affected by a change in
filters (see Section 3.1.1), and the 23 percent drop from the first to the
last year is nearly identical with the 22 percent decrease found on a
national basis.
5.6.2 Pb Trends
The Pb trend in Houston shows a 36 percent decrease compared to a 34
percent drop nationally for the 1980-1983 period. This trend is based on
25 sites which met the data completeness criteria. The data for 7 of these
25 sites were obtained from the EPA's National Aerometric Data Bank (NADB).
and data for the remaining sites were from the Houston Health Department.^
5-29
-------
5.6.3 $02 Trends
The Houston SOz trend is based on 5 out of 13 sites which operated
during the study period. S02 concentrations decreased 10 percent between
1980 and 1983, which is comparable to the 15 percent decrease in the nation-
al trend for the same time period.
5.6.4 03 Trends
The pattern of the 03 concentration in the Houston area is identical
with the national average, 1980 and 1983 are high, while 1981 and 1982 are
lower. Similar to the national trend, meteorology may have been more favor-
able for ozone buildup in 1983 than in 1981 and 1982. Nationally, between
1980 and 1983, there is no change in 03 levels between the two years. In
contrast, 10 of 15 monitoring sites in Houston, meeting the data complete-
ness criteria, show a 5 percent decrease between 1980 and 1983 and a 25
percent increase from 1982 and 1983.
5.6.5 N02 Trends
The Houston downward trend for N0£ is three times greater than the
national average, a 36 percent reduction versus a 12 percent reduction.
This trend is based on four sites out of a total of 39 sites which monitored
N02 in the Houston area during the 1980-1983 study period and met the data
completeness criteria. These monitors are for the most part in backgound
locations and have a relatively low annual average. Monitors located in
higher N02 emission areas do not have a long enough data history to be used
in the trend analysis at this time, although they are reading two to three
times higher than the composite average of the sites used in the trend
analysis.
5.6.6 CO Trends
The Houston CO trend shows an 8 percent increase in contrast to the 11
percent drop in the national average. This increase is probably reflective
of an increase in automobile traffic volume in the vicinity of the trend
sites. This trend is based on only three of the nine CO monitoring locations
which operated during the study period and had enough data to meet the data
completeness criteria.
5-30
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5.7 ST. LOUIS. MISSOURI-ILLINOIS URBANIZED AREA
The St. Louis MO/IL urbanized area is the llth largest in the United
States with a 1980 population of 1,848,590. This population reflects a
loss of 33,354 or 1.8 percent since the 1970 census. The urbanized area
includes all of St. Louis Independent city and parts of three counties in
Missouri including St. Louis County, and parts of three counties in Illinois.
The urbanized area is divided by the Mississippi River, the boundary
between Missouri and Illinois. The Missouri River branches from the
Mississippi just north of the urbanized area and further subdivides the
urbanized area's northwest section. The area is centrally located with
commerce and the distribution of goods playing an important part in the
area's economy. There is heavy industry on the Illinois side, especially
steel manufacturing, smelting, and chemical processing. Along the Misissippi
River, there are large numbers of fuel burning electric generating plants.
At its widest point, the urbanized area extends 48 miles east to west and
32 miles north to south, and encompasses approximately 509 square miles.
The areas continental climate is somewhat modified by its location
near the geographical center of the United States. The area enjoys four
distinct seasons with the cold air masses to the North in Canada and the
warm air masses to the South in the Gulf of Mexico alternating in control
of the weather.
Figure 5-20 shows the location of the TSP, Pb, and 503 sites used in
the trend analysis. Figure 5-21 shows the location of the 03, N02, and CO
sites used in the trend anslysis. Figure 5-22 shows the trends of the six
pollutants during the study period.
5.7.1 TSP Trends
The trend in St. Louis is derived from 24 sites out of a possible 33
which were operating during the period. Figure 5-20 shows the location of
the 24 sites used in the TSP trend analyses. The 25 percent decrease in
the annual geometric mean in St. Louis is nearly identical to the 22 percent
decrease in the national composite average. The pattern is also similar
with the first 2 years distinctly higher than the last 2 years. A change
in the composition of the filter between 1981 and 1982 is felt to be the
reason for this decrease (see Section 3.1.1).
5.7.2 Pb Trends
Because no Pb data were reported to the EPA in 1980 and 1981 and only
three sites reported Pb data in 1982 and 1983, no Pb trend analysis is
possible for the St. Louis urbanized area. There were four sites that
sampled lead during 1980-1983; however, no site met the data completeness
criteria. The general trends for the mobile source sites show decreasing
concentrations, and a site that was influenced by mobil sources and a
point source indicated an upward trend. In all cases however, the Pb
concentrations were well below the Pb standard.
5-34
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5.7.3 S02 Trends
The trend in annual average $03 in St. Louis shows a 12 percent
increase over the period 1980-1983, while the national composite average
has dropped 15 percent during the same period. The increase in St. Louis
is believed to be attributable to a general economic recovery in the area.
The trend in St. Louis is based on 8 out of a possible 19 sites operating
during 1980-1983.
5.7.4 03 Trends
The St. Loifis 03 trend is based on 11 of 23 sites which operated during
the 1980-1983 period. These sites showed a 2 percent increase between 1980
and 1983 and a 32 percent increase between 1982 and 1983. The pattern over
the 4-year period is similar to the national trends, that is, high levels
in 1980 and 1983 and lower levels in 1981 and 1982. As with many sections
of the rest of the country, meteorological conditions may have been more
favorable for ozone formation in 1983 than in 1981 and 1982.
5.7.5 N02 Trends
The 13 percent decrease in the N02 trend is similar to the 12 percent
decrease on a national basis even though only 4 out of 17 possible site loca-
tions met the data completeness criteria required for inclusion in the trend
analysis.
5.7.6 CO Trends
The trend in the St. Louis urbanized area is based on 5 of 15 sites
which had sufficient data to meet the criteria for trend analysis. The 6
percent decrease in the CO trend is comparable with the national 11 percent
decrease during the study period. This smaller decrease could be attributed
to the general economic recovery of the area even though there was a small
population loss in the urbanized area over the previous 10 years.
5-35
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5-38
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5.8 DENVER, COLORADO URBANIZED AREA
The Denver urbanized area had a 1980 population of 1,352,070 and
includes all of Denver County plus portions of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder,
Douglas, and Jefferson Counties. At the maximum boundaries, the urbanized
area extends about 27 miles east to west and 26 miles north to south.
Denver, the capital of Colorado, is located at the western edge of the
great plains of the Midwest. The Rocky Mountains are just to the west of
the urbanized area. Denver is one of the highest cities in the United States
with an altitude of about 1 mile above sea level.
Although manufacturing is minimal compared to other cities of similar
populations, Denver does have manufacturing industries for rubber goods and
luggage. Other industries include food processing, milling, printing and
publishing, steel processing, machinery manufacture, and power generation.
Denver has a large stockyard and has the largest sheep market in the United
States. In recent years, many energy concerns have located their headquar-
ters in Denver.
The meteorology in Denver is unique in that air masses from at least
four different sources influence the weather in the urbanized area. These
sources are polar air from Canada and the far northwest, moist air from the
Gulf of Mexico, warm dry air from Mexico and the southwest, and Pacific air
modified by the passage overland. Since Denver is a long distance from any
moisture source and is separated from the Pacific source by high mountains,
Denver generally has low relative humidity and low average precipitation of
around 14 inches per year.
Figure 5-23 and 5-24 show the locations of the monitors used in the
trend analysis, and Figure 5-25 show the trend graphs for the pollutants.
5.8.1 TSP Trends
Fourteen sites sampled TSP in the urbanized area during 1980-1983 and
12 of these sites met the data completeness criteria and were used in the
trend analysis. Figure 5-16 shows the location of the 12 samplers used for
the trend. Figure 5-17 shows a plot of the trends for 1980-1983 in which
the composite average decreased 23 percent compared to the national decrease
of 22 percent for the same period. Some of the decrease between 1981 and
1982 has been attributed to the filters used for collecting the samples
(see Section 3.1.1). The TSP composite average was above the NAAQS for
each year during 1980-1983. The elevated TSP levels in Denver have been
attributed to the arid conditions and reentrainment of dust particles.
5.8.2 Pb Trends
There were ten sites in the urbanized area which sampled Pb during
1980-1983 and four sites met the data completeness criteria. The Pb data
for 1983 were taken from the Colorado annual data report.13 The trend from
1980 to 1983 in Denver decreased 34 percent or the same as the national
5-39
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decline of 34 percent. The composite average of the four sites in Denver
is about twice as high as the national composite. This, like TSP measure-
ments, are believed to be caused in part by low rainfall conditions cited
previously resulting in more reentrainment of Pb particles in street dust.
5.8.3 S02 Trends
The S02 trends for the urbanized area were developed from two sites
out of the three sites which had data during 1980-1983. The trends for the
composite average show minor fluctuations with essentially no change during
the period. The composite averages are about one-third of the NAAQS.
5.8.4 03 Trends
Six sites out of seven sites met completeness criteria and were used
in the trend analysis. The composite average for the six sites increased
each year during 1980-1983 with the 1983 levels 16 percent higher than the
1980 level and 8 percent higher than the 1982 level. There are no readily
apparent reasons for the increases. The national composite trend showed no
change for the same period.
5.8.5 N02 Trends
There were three sites that reported N02 data during 1980-1983, and
all three sites were used in the trend analysis. The composite average
decreased slightly from 1980-1982, and then increased in 1983. The overall
increase from 1980-1983 was 9 percent as compared to the national decline
of 12 percent. The concentrations measured at a site in downtown Denver
continue to be among the highest in the nation due to mobile and point
sources.
5.8.6 CO Trends
The CO concentrations were measured at ten sites in the urbanized area
and six of these sites met the data completeness criteria and were used for
the trend analysis. The composite average shows 20 to 25 percent fluctua-
tions from year to year with 1983 reporting the same level as 1980. The
use of wood for home heating in air tight stoves in recent years could con-
tribute up to 10 percent of the measured CO concentrations.^ The national
composite average decreased 11 percent for the same period. The composite
average for each year was above the NAAQS.
5-40
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5-43
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5.9 LOS ANGELES-LONG BEACH, CALIFORNIA URBANIZED AREA
The Los Angeles-Long Beach urbanized area is the second largest in
the United States both in terms of population and land area. The urbanized
area has a population of 9,479,436 according to the 1980 census figures and
measures 70 miles from east to west, and 71 miles across from north to south.
The area stretches 90 miles in its longest dimension, that is, northwest to
southeast and contains approximately 1,700 square miles. The urban area
comprises parts of Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino Counties.
The urbanized area is a flat area bounded by the Pacific Ocean on the
west, and south and the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains on the north
and east. The meteorology in the area is complex, with frequent occurrences
of strong persistent temperature inversions, particularly during the period
of May through October. The wind pattern is dominated by a land-sea breeze
circulation system that sometimes allows pollutants to be transported out
to sea at night, only to return inland later in the early morning hours.
Although automotive sources comprise the bulk of the emissions, the
area has a lot of manufacturing and service related industries as well as
petroleum refining and production, chemical plants, fuel burning electric
utilities, and numerous industrial boilers which also contribute to the
pollution levels. The climate is mild and along with the high incidence of
sunlight and latitude of the area, is conducive to a year-long ozone season.
Figure 5-26 shows the location of the TSP, Pb, and S02 sites used in
the trend analysis. Figure 5-27 shows the location of the 03, N02, and CO
sites used in the study. Figure 5-28 shows the trends of the six pollutants
during the study period.
5.9.1 TSP Trends
There were 22 sites operating at some time during 1980-1983 with 12
sites meeting the siting criteria which were used in the trend analysis.
The location of the sites is shown in Figure 5-26. The trend in Los Angeles
TSP is similar to the national trend. The TSP trend from 1980-1983 is exem-
plified by two higher years, 1980-1981, and 2 lower years, 1982-1983. This
trend has been associated with a change in the TSP filter media (Section
3.1.1). The 20 percent drop in the annual average from 1980-1983 compares
favorably with the 22 percent drop in the national trend.
5.9.2 Pb Trends
Los Angeles, with its preponderance of automotive related pollution,
exceeded the national average of 34 percent reduction in Pb levels with a 52
percent drop of its own. This is based on 13 of the 21 sites which met the
data completeness criteria during 1980-1983. California has a more stringent
lead standard than the NAAQS, and both of these standards were met for all
sampling sites for the first time in 1983.
5-44
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5.9.3 S02 Trends
The drop in Los Angeles of 37 percent in annual average S02 levels is
over two times the 15 percent decline seen nationally. This trend is made
up of 15 monitors which met data completeness criteria of the 24 monitors
which operated during the period. The increased improvement is attributed
to having cleaner fuels and a major point source, a steel facility, shutting
down during the period.
5.9.4 03 Trends
The 03 trend in Los Angeles closely parallels the national trend with
an average drop of 1 percent over the 4-year period. Between 1982 and 1983,
the 03 levels increased 15 percent. On a national basis, the years 1980
and 1983 may have been meteorologically favorable for producing 03 levels,
and this is also the pattern shown for Los Angeles. The trend is based on
20 of 26 sites which operated during this period. A recent trend analysis
conducted by the South Coast Air Quality Management District indicates that
1982 was a year of record low meteorological ozone forming potential, and
that 1983 was a return to near normal meteorological conditions.10
5.9.5 NO? Trends
Of the 22 sites operating in the Los Angeles area, 16 met the trends
criteria and were used in the analysis. The Los Angeles N02 levels decreased
8 percent, compared with a 12 percent reduction for the nation.
5.9.6 CO Trends
The decrease in the CO levels is about two times the national average,
that is, 23 percent versus 11 percent. This trend is comprised of 16 of the
22 sites operating during the 1980-1983 period. The percentage reduction
is thought to be greater than the national average because of the commensu-
rate severity of automotive related pollution in Los Angeles relative to
the rest of the nation, and the stringency of their automotive control
program. Also, the average meteorology for 1980-1983 has been slightly
less favorably to the buildup of CO.12*
5-45
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LOS ANGELES CO
Urbanized Area
City Area
SAN BERNARDINO CO
PACIFIC OCEAN
• TSP site used in trend analysis
A Pb site used in trend analysis
D SC>2 site used in trend analysis
° TSP, Pb, and SC>2 site used in trend analysis
SAN DIEGO CO
FIGURE 5-26 LOCATION OF TSP, Pb, AND S02 MONITORING SITES IN LOS ANGELES, CA, 1980-1983.
5-46
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LOS ANGELES CO
Urbanized Area
City Area
SAN BERNARDS
PACIFIC OCEAN
• 03 site used in trend analysis
A NO2 site used in trend analysis
D CO site used in trend analysis
° 03, NC>2, and CO site used in trend analysis
FIGURE 5-27. LOCATION OF 03, N02, AND CO MONITORING SITES IN LOS ANGELES, CA, 1980-1983
5-47
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5.10 PORTLAND. OREGON-WASHINGTON URBANIZED AREA
The Portland urbanized area covers approximately 300 square miles and
includes over 1,020,000 people. Approximately 50 percent of the urbanized
area population live in Multnomah County, the remaining 50 percent live in
parts of Clackamas and Washington Counties in Oregon and part of Clark
County, Washington.
The urbanized area is roughly bounded by Hazel Dell and Orchards in
Washington to the north; Forest Grove, Oregon to the west; Troutdale and
Gresham to the east; and Beaver Creek to the south.
Until the 1940's, Portland was largely a commercial and transportation
center. With the introduction of relatively cheap hydroelectric power in
the 1940's, metallurgical and chemical industries augmented the ongoing
commerce of the area.
The Portland area is about 65 miles from the Pacific Ocean and is
partially shielded from the maritime climate of the Pacific Ocean by the
surrounding hills and mountains. The winds are generally southeasterly
during the winter and northwesterly during summer. The averge precipitation
for the area is 37 inches and typically 88 percent of the rainfall occurs
in the months of October through May.
The locations of the TSP, Pb, and S02 sites used in the trend analysis
are shown in Figure 5-29, and the locations for 03, N02, and CO sites are
shown in Figure 5-30. The trend graphs for all pollutants are shown in
Figure 5-31.
5.10.1 TSP Trends
Figure 5-29 is a map showing the approximate location of the 17 TSP
sampling locations operated in the Portland urbanized area during the period
between 1980 and 1983 and met the trends criteria. During the period 1980
to 1983, 20 TSP sampling sites operated in the Portland area, and 17 of
these sites met the trend criteria and were used in the trend graphs for
Portland (Figure 5-31). The composite average has declined over the 4-year
period by approximately 47 percent which is more than twice the national
decline of 22 percent for TSP. This has occurred because TSP values in
Portland during 1980 were greatly elevated due to the fallout from the Mt.
St. Helens volcanic eruption. If the 1980 TSP composite average is ignored,
the decline in TSP concentrations for the 1981 through 1983 is approximately
21 percent or essentially the same as the national decline. Also, some of
the decrease between 1981 and 1982 may have been caused by a change in the
filters (Section 3.1.1).
5.10.2 Pb Trends
The Pb data for the Portland area trend analysis includes the SAROAD
data base and Pb data from the 1982 and 1983 Air Quality Annual Report pro-
duced by the State of Oregon.15,16 Figure 5-31 shows the composite average
of maximum quarterly concentrations of Pb from the 11 of 14 sites which met
the 4-year trend criteria. The location of these 11 sites is shown on
Figure 5-29. The composite average for Pb in Portland has declined by 55
5-49
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percent during the period compared to the national rate of 34 percent
This difference may be attributed to a State regulation which prohibits the
customer from pumping his own gasoline resulting in a lower rate of fuel
switching.
5.10.3 $02 Trends
The S02 trend sites for Portland are shown on Figure 5-29. The
composite annual average for S02 represents the three of four $62 monitoring
sites in the Portland area with sufficient data to meet the data criteria.
During the period 1980 to 1983, the S02 levels at these sites declined by
19 percent or about 4 percent more than the national decline of 15 percent.
Large point sources of S02 emissions are absent in the Portland area and
this is reflected in Portland annual average concentrations of S02 which
are less than one third of the S02 NAAQS.
5.10.4 03 Trends
The composite average for 03 for the Portland area is based on all
three of the sites operated during the period between 1980 and 1983. The
composite average for the area increased in 1981 over 1980 then declined
in 1982 and 1983 for a net increase of 11 percent between 1980 and 1983.
This is a different pattern from the national trend for ozone which has
shown a decline in average concentrations from 1980 through 1982 with a
pronounced increase in 1983. The reasons for Portland's departure from the
national pattern appear to be related to the local meteorology. Generally,
the high maximum 03 value trends correspond to the trend in the number of
air stagnation days during the spring and summer months. This decrease may
also be due in part to a lower rate of fuel switching due to the State law
prohibiting customers from pumping their own gas.
5.10.5 N02 Trends
The Portland urbanized area was not large enough at the time of the
1970 census to require NAMS N02 monitoring. However, there have been studies
at two N02 sites which were operated for a short period of time during 1980
and 1981. Although neither of the sites met the trend criteria and no trend
lines for N02 could be prepared, it appears that the N02 averages which are
about 30 to 50 percent of the NAAQS have remained stable since 1980.
5.10.6 CO Trends
The CO trend for Portland shown on Figure 5-31 is for the five of six
sites which met the trends criteria for the 1980 through 1983 period. These
sites are shown on Figure 5-30. The composite average declined by 17 per-
cent between 1980 and 1982, then showed a 12 percent increase for 1983 over
1982. This is different than the national trend which showed a decline for
each of the years in the 4-year period. The increase in CO concentrations
may in large part be attributable to the temporary displacement of signifi-
cant traffic volumes off Interstate 84 onto other surface and arterial
street systems, elevating levels measured at affected sites.
5-50
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5.11 REFERENCES
1. 1980 Census of Population, U.S. Bureau of Census, PC 80-1, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. December 1981.
2. Frank, N. H., "Nationwide Trends in Total Suspended Particulate Matter
and Associated Changes in the Measurement Process," Proceedings of the
APCA/ASQC Specialty Conference, "Quality Assurance in Air Pollution
Measurement," Boulder, CO. October 1984.
3. Johnson, T., J. Steigerwald, L. Wijnberg, 0. Capel, and R. Paul,
Analysis of Possible Causes of an Observed Decrease in Particulate
Levels from 1981 to 1982.Prepared for EPA by PEDCo Environmental,
Inc., Cincinnati, OH. April 1984.
4. Beloin, N., et al., 1983 Annual Report on Air Quality in New England,
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region I, Lexington, MA.
July 1984.
5. Ostrowski, R., Philadelphia Air Management Services, Personal Communication
with S. Sleva, March 1, 1985.
6. 1980 Annual Air Quality Report, Illinois Environmental Protection
Agency, Division of Air Pollution Control, Springfield, IL.
7. 1981 Annual Air Quality Report, Illinois Environmental Protection
Agency, Division of Air Pollution Control, Springfield, IL.
8. 1982 Annual,Air Quality Report, Illinois Environmental Protection
Agency, Division of Air Pollution Control, Springfield, IL. June 1983.
9. 1983 Annual Air Quality Report, Illinois Environmental Protection
Agency, Division of Air Pollution Control, Springfield, IL.
10. Sweitzer, T. A. and D. J. Kolaz, "An Assessment of the Influence
of Meteorology on the Trend of Ozone Concentrations in the Chicago
Area," Proceedings of the APCA/ASQC Specialty Conference, "Quality
Assurance in Air Pollution Measurement," Boulder, CO. October 1984.
11. Goranson. S., U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Chicago, IL, Personal
Communication with D. Shipman, November 14, 1984.
12. McMullen, G., Houston Health Department, Personal Communication with
N. Berg, March 11, 1985.
13. Colorado Air Quality Data Report 1983, Colorado Department of Health,
Air Pollution Control Division.
5-54
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14. Davidson, A. and M. Hoggan, Air Quality Trends in the South Coast
Air Basin 1975-1983, South Coast Air Quality Management District,
El Monte, CA.November 1984.
15. Air Quality Annual Report 1982, Oregon Department of Environmental
Quality, Air Quality Control Division. April 1983.
16. 1983 Air Quality Annual Report, Oregon Department of Environmental
Quality, Air Quality Control Division. July 1984.
5-55
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TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing)
1 REPORT NO. 2.
EPA 450/4-84-029
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
National Air Quality and Emissions Trends Report,
1983
7.AUTHOR p. Hunt, Jr., (Editor), T. C. Curran,
R. B. Faoro, N. H. Frank, C. Mann, R. E. Neligan,
S. Sleva. N. Berq, D. Lutz, G. Manire, and D. Shipman
9 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Office of Air and Radiation
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
5. REPORT DATE
April 1985
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Tj-,e confidence i nterval s and computer graphics were prepared
by Alison Pollack of Systems Applications, Inc., under EPA Contract No. 68-02-3570.
16. ABSTRACT
This report presents national and regional trends in air quality from 1975
through 1983 for total suspended particulate, sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide,
nitrogen dioxide, ozone and lead. Both national and regional trends in each of
the major pollutants are examined, as well as complimentary air quality trends in
selected urban areas for the period 1980 through 1983. National'air quality trends
are also presented for both the National Air Monitoring Sites (NAMS) and other site
categories.
In addition to ambient air quality, trends are also presented for annual
nationwide emissions. These emissions are estimated using the best available
engineering calculations; the ambient levels presented are averages of direct
measurements.
This report also includes a section, Air Quality Levels in Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA's). Its purpose is to provide interested
members of the air pollution control community, the private sector and the
general public with greatly simplified air pollution information. Air quality
statistics are presented for each of the pollutants for all SMSA's with populations
exceeding 500,000 for the years 1981, 1982 and 1983.
17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
a. DESCRIPTORS
Air Pollution Trends Air Pollution
Emission Trends Standard Metropolitc
Carbon Monoxide Statistical Area (Sl^
Nitrogen Dioxide Air Quality Statisti
Ozone National Air Monitor
Sulfur Dioxide Stations (NAMS)
Total Suspended Parti culates
Lead
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
Release Unlimited
b. IDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS
n
SA)
cs
ing
19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
Unclassified
20 SECURITY CLASS (This page)
Unclassified
c. COSATl Held/Group
21. NO. OF PAGES
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77)
PREVIOUS EDITION IS OBSOLETE
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.S. Environ-v-..- '; ?.-. Action Agency
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