&EPA
United States
Environmental Protection
Agency • -
                        Office of Air Quality
                        Planning and Standards
                        Research Triangle Park NC 2771 1
EPA-450/D-86-001
June 1986
            Air
User's Manual
For The Human
Exposure Model
(HEM)

-------
               USER'S  MANUAL

                    FOR

       THE HUMAN EXPOSURE MODEL (HEM)
        Pollutant Assessment Branch
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards
                 June 1986
                  **i Protection Agency
    US Environmental Proteu
         r,0  MlinoiS

-------
This report has been reviewed by the Strategies  and Air  Standards Division
of the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, EPA,  and  approved  for
publication.   Mention of trade names or commercial products  is not  intended
to constitute endorsement or recommendation  for  use.  Copies of this  report
are available through the Library Services Office  (MD-35), U.  S. Environmental
Protection Agency,  Research Triangle Park, N.C.  27711, or  from National
Technical Information Services,  5285 Port Royal  Road, Springfield,  Virginia
22161.

-------
                             TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title                                                                Page


Chapter 1	1-1

    l-l.1 ' Introduction	1-1
    1-2.  When To Use SHED or SHEAR	1-2
    1-3.  Permanent Data Bases	1-2
    1-4.  Computer Access	.1-9
    1-5.  Risk Estimates	1-11
Chapter 2	2-1

    2-1.  Introduction to SHED	2-1
    2-2.  Input Data	'	2-1
    2-3.  Dispersion Modeling 	   2-6
    2-4.  Assumptions	2-18
    2-5.  Using the SHED Model	2-20
    2-6.  Using Output from other Dispersion Models 	   2-37
    2-7.  Output from SHED	2-40


Chapter 3	3-1

    3-1.  Introduction to SHEAR   	3-1
    3-2.  Input Data	3-2
    3-3.  Dispersion Modeling 	   3-5
    3-4.  Assumptions	3-10
    3-5.  Using the SHEAR Model	3-11
    3-6.  Using Output from other Dispersion Models 	   3-35
    3-7.  Output from SHEAR	3-37
References	R-l

Appendix A	A-l
Appendix 3	B-l
Appendix C	C-l
Appendix 0	0-1
Appendix E	E-l

-------
                              List of Figures

Figure                                                               Page
1-1.   Locations of STAR Stations	    1-7
2-1.   Effects of Chemical  Reactivity on Concentration
       Distribution of Chloroprene 	    2-8
2-2.   Effect of Building Wake on Concentration
       Distribution of Chloroprene	    .2-10
2-3.   Impacts of Release Height on Concentration
       Distribution of Chloroprene 	  ....    2-11
2-4.   Pairing of BG/ED with Concentration Points
       Within a 3.5 Km Radius	    2-14
2-5.   Log-linear Interpolation Scheme 	    2-16
2-6.   Summary of SHED Data Entry Format	    2-31
2-7.   Typical SHED Data File	    2-32
2-8.   Summary of the Input Data  ...   	    2-41
2-9.   Individual Plant Concentration Grid 	    2-42
2-10.  Map of Population Centroids and Population by 3rid  ....    2-43
2.11.  Map of Population Centroids and Population by Patch  ....    2-44
2.12.  Cummulative Summary 	    2-46
2-13.  Overall Summary	    2-47
3-1.   !3Qual Card for SHEAR	    3-14
3-2.   Population Extraction Data for SMEAR	    3-16
3-3.   Exclusion Data for SHEAR	    3-19
3-4.   Chemical and STAR Data for SHEAR	    3-20
3-5.   Point Source and Prototype Data for SHEAR	    3-23
3-6.   Area Source Data for SHEAR	    3-26
3-7.   Summarization Data for SHEAR	    3-28
                                     ii

-------
3-8.   Plot Data for SHEAR	    3-31
3-9.   Selection of Center  for Listing  of  Concentrations    ....    3-33
3-10.  Point Source and Prototype Data  for SHEAR  .........    3-34
3-11.  Selection of ISC Output Files	    3-36
                                    111

-------
                               List  of Tables

Table                                                                Page
1-1.  The SHED and  SHEAR  Models	1-3
1-2.  Conparison  of SHED  and  SHEAR Results	1-4
                                     iv

-------
                                   Chapter 1
1-1.  Introduction.
     The Human Exposure Model  (HEM) is a general  model  designed to estimate
the population exposed to air  pollutants emitted  from stationary sources and
the carcinogenic risk associated with this exposure.   The HEM is comprised
       i  '
of (1) an atmospheric dispersion model,  with included meteorological  data,
(2) a population distribution  based on Bureau of  Census data and (3)  .a
procedure for estimating risks due to the predicted exposure.  The only
inputs needed to operate this  model are source data,  e.g., plant location,
height of the emission release point, the temperature of the off gases,
etc.  Based on source data, the model estimates the magnitude and distribution
of ambient air concentrations  of the pollutant in the vicinity of the
source.  These concentration estimates are coupled with the population to
estimate public exposure to the pollutant.  The HEM then predicts population
risks if a unit risk number determined from health data is input for  the
pollutant.
     Within HEM there are two  basic models, the Systems Applications  Human
Exposure and Dosage (SHED) model and the Systems  Applications Human Exposure
And Risk (SHEAR) model.  The SMED model  was developed to access sources on
a nationwide source category basis, e.g., all primary copper smelters.  It
is generally faster and more economical  to run SHED than SHEAR for major
point sources (large producers and users).  The SHEAR model was developed
from SHED to model hot spots,  or smaller regions  with more than one source.
In addition to modeling major  point sources, SHEAR can  also be used to nodel
prototype sources (model plants) and area sources.  Since the applications
and actual data input of SHED  and SHEAR vary, these aspects will be discussed
in separate chapters of this manual.
                                    1-1

-------
1-2.  When to Use SHED or SHEAR.
     As explained above, SHED and SHEAR are two models  within HEM  which
differ slightly in their purpose  and scope.  Table 1-1  summarizes  the
differences between the two models.   This summary yields  the following
conclusions of which model  should be used in a particular analysis:
        i *
     1.  Use SHED when addressing national  exposure from  one chemical.
     2.  Use SHEAR when addressing multiple chemicals from a source  or
         group of sources and the assumption is valid that risks to  human
         health can be approximated simply  by adding together the  risks
         from each chemical studied.
     3.  Use SHEAR when the source is located near uninhabitable areas such
         as large bodies of water and where the nearest population centroid
         is close (less than 1.0  km) to the plant.
     4.  Use SHEAR to assess the  impact of  area or prototype sources in
         small geographical areas.
     These guidelines should assist in determining which  model  to  use for  a
particular analysis.  To show the possible  differences  which could be
expected with SHEO and SHEAR, the same plant was modeled  using SHEO  and
SHEAR.  The results are outlined  in Table 1-2.  For more  detail on the
model  differences please refer to Chapters  2 and 3.
     Certain components of SHEO and SHEAR are similar,  for example,
the meteorological and population data bases.  The subsequent sections of
this chapter will address those features common to both models.
1-3.   Permanent Data Bases
     Four major types of data are essential for assessing exposures  to
and dosages of atmospheric chemicals:
                                    1-2

-------
                           TABLE 1-1.   THE SHED AND SHEAR MODELS
    AREA
 EVALUATED
                SHED
              SHEAR
 SCOPE
NATIONAL (MAJOR POINT SOURCES)
 POLLUTANTS
 NUMBER PEOPLE
 EXPOSED
 INDIVIDUAL
 RISK
 RESOURCES
SINGLE POLLUTANT RUNS ONLY
DOUBLE COUNTS IF SOURCES SITED
NEAR EACH OTHER
MORE REALISTIC ESTIMATE (GENERALLY
OVERESTIMATES SLIGHTLY)
INEXPENSIVE TO RUN
LIMITED GEOGRAPHICAL AREA ANALYSIS!
(MAJOR POINT, PROTOTYPICAL*, AND
AREA** SOURCES)
MULTIPLE POLLUTANTS
NUMBER OF PEOPLE EXPOSED HELD
CONSTANT
UNDERESTIMATE
MORE EXPENSIVE
 * ASSIGNS MODEL PLANTS RANDOMLY TO BG/EO CENTROIOS

** EMISSIONS ASSIGNED TO POPULATION OR ASSUMED TO BE UNIFORMLY DISTRIBUTED
   OVER AREA SPECIFIED
                                       1-3

-------
              TABLE  1-2.   COMPARISON  OF  SHED  AND  SHEAR  RESULTS

              2  Plants  Modeled  in  New York  City  (50 Km  Radius)
MEASURES
i •
Maximum Lifetime Risk
Annual Incidence
Total No. of People Exposed
No. of People Exposed to
Incremental Risk
>io-3
>10'4
>10-5
>io-8
>10-7
>10-8
Maximum Concentration
Model ed
Cost (1986)
SHED
2.4 x 10-3
1.0
27,400,000

1,285
32,270
927,000
13,700,000
27,000,000
27,400,000
8.0 x 10-1
(.2 Km, NE)
$ 6.63
SHEAR
5.9 x 10-*
1.0
13,700,000

0
43,900
1,380,000
9,460,000
13,500,000
13,700,000
8.0 x 10-1
(.2 Km, NE)
$ 61.50*
RATIO
SHED/SHEAR
4.1
1
2










* This is the cost of running the point source portion  of SHEAR only.
  To run point source, you roust first run  a population  routine called
  XTRACT which would cost additional  dollars.   The exact  amount depends
  largely on the population density of the area modeled.   Hew York  City
  is >$100.
                                    1-4

-------
     >  Emissions inventories of chemicals
     >  Atmospheric reactivities of chemicals
     >  Meteorological data
     >  Population distribution data
                  ซ
     The first two of the four types of data bases are data specific for
each chemical.  These data must be input for each risk assessment for SHED
or SHEAR.  These data bases are covered under each section entitled ".Input
Data" in the SHED and SHEAR chapters.
     Meteorological data and population distributions do not vary with the
specific chemical but depend on geographic location.   These are permanent
data bases in the program.  The remainder of this section provides further
detail on these data bases.  Systems Applications, Incorporated (March 1983
and May 1983) provide more detail on the creation of these data bases.
     Health data are essential to derive copulation risks from population
exposure.  However, these data are provided in the form of a unit risk
estimate, which is derived external to the exposure model.  This health
data type will not be discussed in this manual.
Meteorological Data
     The dispersion computations carried out by  the HEM require data on
wind speed, wind direction, and the intensity of atmospheric turbulence.
The turbulence intensity is represented by the atmospheric stability class.
These data are provided by a permanent data base in the program known as
the Stability Array or STAR data set.
Acquisition and Processing of STAR Data
     Martin and Tikvart (1968) developed the STAR program from routinely
collected meteorological data to generate frequencies and percentage
frequencies of wind direction by speed classes for each stability category.
                                  1-5

-------
The specifications of stability categories depending on wind speed and sky
cover were set up by Pasquill  (1961)  and were modified by Turner (1964).
The program was adopted for use at the National  Climatic Center (NCC),
where archived records of all  national reporting weather stations are kept.
The most up-to-date version of the STAR data from all  STAR stations in the
        i
country was obtained on magnetic tape from NCC,  and the matrices of STAR
frequencies used in the program were  taken from  these tapes.
     The data sets on the NCC  tapes were reprocessed into a format which
includes 16 wind directions, six wind speed classes, and seven stability
categories with categories A,  B, C, and D^y in  the daytime and categories
ฐnightซ Eป anfl' ^ 1n the nighttime.  There are data sets for 312 stations  in
this reprocessed STAR data file.  Figure 1-1 shows the locations of these
STAR sites.
STAR Station Selection
     By default, meteorological data  recorded at the STAR station nearest to
the source are used in the dispersion modeling for SHED.  The nearest station
is typically input for SHEAR,  as well.  (See Appendix A for location of the
nearest STAR station.) However, local meteorological trends and topographic
features may be more important factors in selecting a STAR station than is
the absolute distance between  the source and the station.  A STAR station
with climatological conditions most similar to those of the source of
emissions may not be the nearest station, so the STAR stations may be
manually selected to account for such situations.
Detailed STAR Selection Process
     As stated previously, STAR stations can be manually selected such that
they are in similar local meteorological regimes and are influenced by
                                     1-5

-------
t/1
c
o
(/I
c
o
                                                       1-7

-------
similar orographic (topography  on the scale of mountain  ranges)  conditions
as the emission sources.   Major features  which should be considered include
the following:
     >  Surface thermal  patterns, which can affect the local  wind.   For
        example, the local  sea-land breeze wind system is usually  limited
        to surface-based layers several hundred meters thick.   Since this
        region  is the atmospheric layer into which chemicals  are emitted,
        consideration of these  winds is important for chemical  plants
        located on ocean coasts or adjacent to large lakes.   Another example
        concerns foehn winds (winds flowing down mountains),  the influence
        of which should be considered for emissions sources  located in
        Montana (Chinook wind)  and in Los Angeles County (the Santa Ana wind).
     >  Wind patterns may be obtained from the Climatic  Atlas (U.S. Environ-
        mental  Data Service, 1968) and from maps of the  U.S.  Geological
        Survey (1:500,000; 1:125,000).
     >  Topographical effects,  such as that of mountain-valley wind.   The
        behavior of the wind in ridge-valley topography  depends  both on the
        relationships between the wind direction and the solar azimuth, and
        on the orientation of the ridge lines and valleys.  These  local
        wind effects should be  taken into consideration  in the selection
        process, especially for emissions sources located in  the valleys of
        the Cascades and coastal ranges (northwestern states) or the Appalachian
        Mountains  (eastern states).
     >  Urban  effects, including wind, low disturbances  by urban thermal or
        frictional elements such as organized patterns of urban skyscrapers
        (Chicago,  New York City, Los Angeles metropolitan, etc.).   Such
                                    1-8

-------
        features substantially  influence airstream  and,  consequently,  the
        diffusion of air contaminants.   If  an  emission  source  is  located in
        a small  city, and if STAR stations  in  a large city  and in a  small
        city are equidistant from the  emission source,  then preference should
        tbe given to the STAR station in  the small city.
Population Distribution Data Base
     The HEM program uses the latitude and  longitude from the  input  d.ata in
determining the  population of the study  area.   The  permanent data base is
comprised of the 1980 Census Data Base broken  down  by Block Group/Enumeration
District (8G/ED).  Further information on this data base and the  manner in
which it is accessed is covered in the following sections.
Population Data  Processing
     The population data base contains the  population centroid coordinates
(latitude and longitude) and the 1980  population of each BG/ED in the
country (about 300,000 centroids in 50 states  plus  the  District of Columbia)
as found in Master Area Reference File 2 (MARF2).   In addition, the  data
base contains large arrays of descriptive and  summary population  statistics.
vJhile these data may be a valuable adjunct  in  certain types of exposure
analyses, the size of the complete file  interferes  with  efficient access to
the small subset of information needed for  most exposure calculations.  For
this reason, the permanent data base contains  only  the  essential  information
in a fonn that permits rapid access to the  relevant study area.
1-4.  Computer Access
     The HEM program is currently run  on the National Computer Center's
(NCC) UNIVAC computer system located at  Research Triangle Park, N.C.   The
computer may be  easily accessed by terminals located at Research  Triangle
                                    1-9

-------
Park and at EPA's facilities in the NC  Mutual  Building  in  Durham,  NC.
Terminals in the Mutual  Building are presently located  in  Rooms  934, 624,
654, 653 and 646A.
     Access can also be obtained via the EPA regional offices  or through
any organization using the NCC  system.   To  gain access  to  the  computer,
       i  '
users must have an account to which the computer time will  be  charged  and  a
user ID.   Within the Environmental  Protection Agency, user IDs and accounts
are obtained through the ADP coordinator by contacting  Pete Carter at  (919)
541-3522.  For information concerning interagency agreements contact Jim
Obenchain at (919)  541-2122.  To set up a contract for  the NCC UNI VAC
outside of EPA, contact Ms. Weaver  of National  Technical  Information
Service (NTIS) at (703)  487-4805.   Ms.   Weaver can send the appropriate
forms which must be completed and returned.   Ms.  Weaver will also  upon
receipt of the completed paperwork, contact EPA to obtain  an account number
and user 10.  To establish equipment compatability call  TELE Communications
at (919) 541-4506, FTS 629-4506 or  (300) 334-0741.
     The HEM is frequently under revision to ensure that the best  information
is incorporated.  This manual will  thus soon become outdated.  Therefore,
before attempting to operate HEM, please contact Michael  Dusetzina,
Brenda Riddle or George Ouggan of the Pollutant Assessment Branch, at  (919)
541-5645 or FTS 629-5645.  These personnel  can alert you to changes in the
model and can help in deciding which version of the model  may  be most
appropriate for your application.  Once one of these is contacted  and  you
have an account number and a compatible terminal, HEM may  be run by following
the instruction detailed in sections 2-5 and 3-5.
                                    1-10

-------
1-5. Risk Estimates
     The HEM produces estimates of annual  incidence and maximum individual
lifetime risk.   These numbers,  however,  should not be construed as the
absolute health risks.  HEM was designed to screen, 1) substances to be
regulated, 2) source cagtegories to be regulated and 3) alternative control
        i *
techniques.  To produce results inexpensively with limited data (as required
by screening techniques), HEM makes many simplifying assumptions.   Since
these assumptions are common among HEM runs,  the results can be compared.
Therefore, HEM results should be used only to compare within similar sub-
stances, scenarios, etc. for decision-making  and not be presented as absolute
values of risk.
     The assumptions required to estimate the health risk with HEM involve
both estimating the exposure to a substance and estimating the health
effects due to this exposure.  These assumptions ar* outlined below.
Exposure Assessment
     The HEM estimates concentrations of a substance in the ambient air at
specific points around a source.  It is  known, however, that pollutant
exposure occurs for exposures other than ambient air exposures (i.e., food,
water) and populations move through different microenvironments.   This model
also employs a number of simplifying assumptions including:
     1. It is assumed that most exposure occurs at population weighted
centers (centroids) of block group and enumeration districts (BG/EO) as the
locations of actual residences  are not contained in available databases.
The model relies on information provided in a database developed by the
U.S. Census Bureau.
     2.  It is assumed that people reside at  these centroids for their
entire lifetimes (assumed to be 70 years for  calculating cancer risk).
                                   1-11

-------
     3.  It is assumed that indoor concentrations are the same as outdoor
concentrations.
     4.  It is assumed that plants emit pollutants at the same emission
rate for 70 years.
     5^ .It is assumed that the only source of exposure is the ambient air
and resuspension of pollutants via dust is not considered.
     6.  It is assumed that there is no population migration or growth.
     7.  The model does not provide for descriminating exposure situations
that may differ with age, sex, health status, or other situations.
     8.  The model is designed to model for flat terrain.
     Table 1 presents the directional impact some of these assumptions may
have on the risk results.  It is important to note that these estimates may
not be universally applicable to all pollutants and source categories.
Nevertheless, they should serve as a useful qualitative description of the
effect each assumption may have on the risk estimates.
     There is also uncertainty associated with various specifications re-
quired for running the HEM as well as uncertainty associated with the
variables specified.  These model specifications and variables include:
     1.  Given the variations in meteorology each year and with each location,
there is uncertainty as to the extent to which the meteorological station
used to model the site modeled is representative.  This includes the selection
of urban or rural for stability.
     2.  There is uncertainty associated with the emission estimates and
the plant parameters used to characterize the emission source.
     3.  If the  plant is not correctly located, there will be a problem in
the matching  of  population census data with concentrations, which alters
                                     1-12

-------
 TABLE 1.  DIRECTIONAL IMPACT OF SIMPLIFYING ASSUMPTIONS ON RISK ESTIMATES
MODEL ASSUMPTION
   MAXIMUM
  INDIVIDUAL
     RISK
 AGGREGATE
   RISK
      COMMENT
Exposure at
  centroids
Underestimates
Minimal
underestimate
SHEAR underestimates
risk close to the
plant due .to this
assumption
Exposure at
  receptors
Overestimates
occasionally
Minimal
overestimate
SHED can overestimate
rfith this assumption
if no one lives at the
highest concentration
level
Indoor exposure
  equals outdoor
Overestimates
Overestimates
This assumes no in-
door sources of the
pollutant
Immobile
  population
Overestimates
No effect
Aggregate is un-
affected because
population leaving
are replaced at the
same rate
Mo individual
  behavior
  patterns
Underestimates
Underestimates
Individuals are at
higher risk due to
outdoor or closer
activities
Flat terrain
Underestimates
Underestimates
Unless the source
is higher than the
surrounding area,
the plume impacts
on rough terrain
                                    1-13

-------
risk estimates.
     Table 2 presents some of the specifications required by HEM and the
directional impact of selecting one specification rather than another.
Again, these impact estimates may not apply to all  situations and sources
but may provide useful  information for the general  trend.
Unit Risk Value
     The unit risk value constitutes all  of the health risk information
input required by the HEM.  The uncertainty involved with the unit risk
estimate depends on the amount, type and quality of data used in its
development.  For instance, when only animal  data is available,  a statistical
upper bound is used to calculate the unit risk.  When human data is available,
a maximum likelihood estimate is used to estimate the unit risk.  Although
these are similar, the upper bound is often higher than the maximun likelihood
estimate by a factor of 2 or 3.  There are several  areas that contribute
to  the uncertainty associated with the unit risk or cancer potency estimates
developed by the Carcinogen Assessment Group.  These areas are divided in a
number of different ways but the following grouping is reasonable:
      1.  Extrapolation:  Animal-to-man or route-to-route.
      2.  Absorption:  When route-to-route extrapolation is employed it is
necessary to examine, if available, absorption estimates that have been
derived from controlled exposure studies using concentrations that are
reasonably  similar to the ambient exposures.
      3.  Model Specifications:  The consistency of model specifications
used  in calculating the cancer unit risk estimates.
      4.  Pharmacokinetics:  The consideration  of oharmacokinetics especially
for studies requiring route-to-route extrapolation.
                                    1-14

-------
 TABLE 2.  COMPARISON OF RISK ESTIMATES BASED ON VARIOUS HEM SPECIFICATIONS
MODEL ASSUMPTION
   MAXIMUM
  INDIVIDUAL
     RISK
   AGGREGATE
     RISK
     COMMENT
Urban vs rural
Higher estimates    Lower estimates
                   Rural setting results
                   in more stable
                   meteorology and higher
                   distant concentrations.
                   Urban setting is less
                   stable but generally
                   produces .higher
                   maximum individual  risk,
Stack height
 (low vs high)
Higher estimates    Somewhat higher
                       estimates
                   Taller stacks cause
                   greater dispersion
                   within the 50 km
                   area and hence lower
                   concentrations
Exit velocity
 (low vs high)
Higher estimates    Higher estimates
                   Higher velocities
                   cause more dispersion
                   and lower concentrations
Emissions
Proportional
Proportional
Concentrations and risk
are proportional  to
emissions
Diameter
 (smal1 vs large)

Location
  Small city

  Medium city

  Large city
Higher estimates    Higher estinates
Higher/lower

Higher/lower

Minimal
Higher/lower

Higher/lower

Minimal
                   Only affects the risk
                   occasionally
Location of sources
determines affected
SG/EDs.  Large cities
are more likely to
have consistent popu-
lation density.
Location can have a
very large impact for
small and medium
cities.
                                    1-15

-------
                                 Chapter 2
2-1.   Introduction to SHED
     SHED is a model  within HEM that is used primarily for major (specific)
point sources (usually producers or large users of specified chemicals)  on
a nationwide basis.  Each source in SHED must be specifically located by
longitude and latitude.   For each source the release parameters must be
described, these include stack height,  exit velocity, emission rate, etc.
     SHED is relatively fast to run.  After input of the data, the
program may take only ten minutes of computer time to run as many as one
hundred sources.  This rapid processing causes SHED to be relatively
inexpensive to run.
2-2.   Input Data
     As discussed in Section 1-2, the meteorological data and population
data are part of the internal  computer data base.  The necessary input data
falls into four categories:
     > Source Location
     > Emissions Data
     > Vent Parameter Data
     > Atmospheric Reactivities of Chemicals
     Source location, emissions data and vent parameter data are always
necessary to analyze sources.   The atmospheric reactivities, however,  are
only necessary when the chemical is extremely reactive.   For example,  the
atmosphere half-life should be specified for those chemicals *ith half-lives
of less than three or four hours.  The  following section provides additional
guidance on the information needed and possible sources of the information.
How to input the data into a file for use by the program is discussed in
Section 2-5.
                                    2-1

-------
     To link the computed exposures to the cancer risk of the population,
the unit risk estimate must also be included.  Generally, these estimates
are obtained from the Carcinogen Assessment Group in a Health Assessment
Document (HAD) for the chemical.  A unit risk estimate is the estimated
risk of cancer to an individual  if that individual is exposed to one ug/m3
of the chemical for their entire lifetime.  Hence it is expressed in units
of (jg/m3')'1.  If the unit risk  is unknown, HEM assumes a risk of 1.0.  The
results then merely reflect the  concentrations and the number of people
exposed to those concentrations  without estimating the health risk from
that exposure.  The "annual incidence" and "maximum individual risk" numbers
reported using a unit risk of one may simply be multiplied by the correct unit
risk number when it becomes availabale.
Source Location
     The geographic location of  the source must be identified in order to
run the SHED portion of HEM.  Specific point source locations may be determined
generally from a variety of published sources.  These include:
     > Directory of Chemical Producers and Chemical Economics Handbook, published
       by Stanford Research Institute.
     > "Chemical Marketing Reporter."
     > U.S. Government publications, such as the U.S. Tariff Commission's
       Synthetic Organic Chemical Production and Sales."
     > Reference guides, such as the "Kline Guide to the Chemical Industry."
     > Other sources, such as trade associations, trade journals and periodicals,
       and  technical journals and periodicals.
     > Existing EPA exposure and risk reports.
     Once the  general locations (company name, city and state) of the point
source are  determined, geographic coordinates must be assigned.  Geographic
coordinate  information can also be determined from a variety of sources.
These include:
                                    2-2

-------
     > Personal  communication with state air agencies and/or EPA regional
       offices.
     > Emissions inventory files (e.g., the National  Emissions Data System (NEDS).
     > United States Geological  Survey Maps (U.S.G.S).
     > Existing  EPA exposure and risk reports.
     In some instances, these sources will  be able to provide geographic
coordinates in Universal  Tranverse Mercator (UTMs) units.   These may be
converted by use of a computer program on the UNI VAC  system to geodetic
coordinates (latitude/longitude).   To use this  program,  please refer to
Appendix 8.
Emissions Data
     Emission factors can be developed to estimate the emissions from the
production, consumption,  and incidental formation  of  the various chemicals
assessed.  The emission factor is  expressed as  tie total  kilograms  of a
specific chemical lost to the atmosphere per kilogram of the chemical  pro-
duced or used.  Multiplication of  the emission  factor by the quantity of the
chemical produced or used at an  individual  site or in a  specific geographic
region during a  specific  time period yields the estimated emissions of the
chemical, in kilograms, for that location.
     The total emissions  resulting from the production of a chemical  or
chemical intermediate use of a specific chemical are  a summation of process,
storage, and fugitive emissions  losses:
     > Process emissions  are discrete losses that  occur  at process  vents from
       reactors, columns, and other types of plant equipment.
     > Storage emissions  include losses from the raw  material  feed, in-
       process and final  product storage tanks, as well  as from loading and
       handling  losses.
                                    2-3

-------
     > Fugitive emissions are losses that result from plant equipment leaks,
       visual  openings, evaporation from waste products,  and other non-discrete
       sources.
     If possible, emission factors should be determined for each of these
types of emissions.   To develop specific chemical  emission factors various
       i '
methods are available.   Each method produces its own level of reliability
of the resulting data.   Below are listed some of these methods,  in decreasing
order of reliability:
     > Plant Site Visits:  Data are collected by actual  site visits or
       from letters  to producers.  In certain instances  this actual  data
       from a few producers may be useful for preparing model plant parameters
       for a large number of producers.
     > State Air Emission Inventory Questionaires  (EIQs):   The air EIOs  for
       most manufacturing sites are on file at various state air agencies
       throughout the United States.
     > Other Published Sources:  A variety of published reports  for different
       chemicals and types of sources have been orepared  by EPA  and for  EPA
       by contractors.  The most recent publications should be used.
     > Engineering Estimates:  Occasionally certain pollutants are produced
       or used in a sinilar manner.  In such cases, estimates from an unknown
       process can be made by generalizing from a  similar, previously defined
       process.  In other instances, an emission factor for an unknown
       chemical intermediate use of a specific chemical  can be calculated
       based on a weighted average factor of all other known chemical
       intermediate uses of the same chemical.
Once the emission factor is determined it must be multiplied by the plant's
consumption to determine the emission rate required for input to the HEM.
                                    2-4

-------
Vent Parameter Data
     Vent parameter data are necessary for dispersion modeling of the
chemical emissions.  The vent parameter data in each of the chemical
summaries include the number of process and storage tank vents, vent height,
vent diameter, gas discharge temperature, gas emission velocity, fugitive
       i *
discharge area, and building cross-sectional area.  These data can be
obtained from the same four source levels discussed above, under emission
factors.  Some data are supplied by producers during site visits, some data
are obtained from EIQs, and some from other published reports or text
books.

Atmospheric Reactivities of Chemicals
     A variety of studies have reported the lifetime or atmospheric residence
time of many listed chemicals.  Often, however, the basis for the decay
rates are not given and reconciliation between studies tends to be impossible.
In this instance, all  available data and best engineering judgment should
be used.
     Most chemical destruction of gaseous compounds in the atmosphere occurs
by one of the following three mechanises:
     > Photolysis
     > Reaction with free radicals (chiefly hydroxyl)
     > Reaction with atmospheric oxidants  (chiefly ozone)
The process of photolysis and reaction with hydroxyl  radicals occur only  during
daylight hours.  Hydroxyl  radicals have a  short atmospheric  residence time
and requirs a continuing photolytic source to maintain their concentrations.
Thus, if no source for the hydroxyl radical  exists, no reaction will  occur.
                                    2-5

-------
     The HEM is generally constrained to a study area in a 50 km radius of
the source. In most instances,  the reactivity of a chemical  is not sufficiently
high to cause significant removal  before the material is dispersed to this
distance.  Therefore, this input to the HEM can be left blank with the
model assuming no atmospheric decay.  Some chemicals, however, do have high
       t  "
reactivity (e.g., formaldehyde) and should be analyzed for this behavior.
2-3.  Dispersion Modeling
     The previous section discussed the information necessary to run the
SHED model.  This section explains how that data is used to  give the
resulting exposure/dosage estimation.
     The concentration patterns caused by major point source emissions
depend most strongly on four factors.
     > Emission rate
     > Source elevation above terrain (stack height); effective plume
       elevation may, in turn,  depend on meteorological  factors
     > Wind vectors (speed and direction)
     > Dispersive effects (intensity of atmospheric turbulence)
The  dispersion node! in SHED is a Gaussian model in the climatological form
of the EPA's Climatological Dispersion Model (COM) in that it uses the same
basic dispersion algorithm, is coded and used to estimate the annual average
ground-level concentrations resulting from emissions of major point sources.
Flat terrain is assumed.
     The maximum radius generally considered in the exposure/dosage estimation
is set as  50 km for major point sources.  Concentrations are estimated for
10 receptors--0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 5.0, 10.0, 20.0, 30.0, 40.0, and 50.0 km
from the source—along each of the  16 wind directions.  In some instances
                                    2-6

-------
there may be more than one type of point source (each with its characteristic
release height, emissions rate, etc.) within a single plant.  Fugitive
emissions (valve and flange leaks, etc.) that are random and indeterminate
but not negligible can be approximated by an area or volume approximation
at a reasonable level above the ground (l-10m).  This is the height range
       ( '
typical of outdoor plumbing.  Each emissions category is modeled individually,
and the total ground-level concentrations resulting from plant emissions
are then computed by summing the individual  estimates.
     The dispersion algorithm can also treat chemical formation and decay,
enhanced dispersion caused by building wake effects, and release or stack
height.  These features are discussed in the following subsections.
Chemical Reactivity
     The detailed approach adopted in estimating the effect of chemical
reactions on ambient concentrations is shown with chloroprene as an example.
Chloroprene is an organic compound that is decidedly photoreactive in the
atmosphere.  Based on preliminary calculations conducted with the estimated
chloroprene atmospheric decay rate, approximately 90 percent of the chloroprene
emitted into the sunlit urban atmosphere would be removed within an hour
through reaction with hydroxyl radicals and ozone molecules.  However, the
chemical decay rates are much lower in the nighttime or under overcast
conditions.  Figure 2-1 displays a comparison between the resulting con-
centrations along a single wind direction with and without the chemical
decay computed for a chloroprene example.  Because the atmospheric reactions
change atmospheric concentrations over time, the reactivity of a compound
has less impact on the concentrations near the emissions source than further
downwind.  The difference in concentrations between the two curves of
                                    2-7

-------
  100.0
0)
I
&
s
o
          REACTIVE (REFERENCE
       0.1    0.2      0.5    1.0    2.0      5.0   10.0   20.0

                    Downwind Distance fron Source (km)


Source:  Systems Applications, Incorporated computations using SAI
         dispersion model and SAI reactivity estimates.
   FIGURE 2-1 EFFECTS OF CHEMICAL REACTIVITY ON CONCENTRATION
              DISTRIBUTION OF CHLOROPRENE
                               2-8

-------
Figure 2-1 at 200 meters from the source is about 3 percent (43.2/41.9 -
1); at 20 km from the source the difference is about 30 percent (0.070/
0.054 - 1).
Building Wake Effect
     Pollutants emitted into the wake of a building are subject to an
        i '
enhanced dispersion (e.g., the concentration is reduced very quickly by
the turbulence on the lee side of the building).   If a dispersion analysis
ignored this effect, the occurrence of high concentrations would be over-
estimated.
     The grou/id-level concentrations that result  from different building
structure dimensions are depicted in Figure 2-2,  where the major parameters
for estimating these concentrations are the same  as those of the reference
case.  Clearly, the building wake effect would have insignificant impacts
on ground-level concentrations at points further  downwind from the source
than 1.0 km.  However, sources with larger building effects would result
in larger ground-level concentrations near the sources.   Additional  analyses
that assess the precise impacts of building wake  effect may be required to
determine the extent to which the example in Figure 2-2 is site-specific.
Release Height
     The exact release height of a source can have a great effect on ground-
level concentrations.  As Figure 2-3 shows, concentrations resulting from
ground-level emissions (H = 0) can be more than 10 times as great as those
resulting from emissions at a moderate height (H  > 20 m).   However,  these
differences become insignificant further downwind (R > 5 km).
     Figures 2-1, 2-2, and 2-3 indicate that groundlevel  concentrations
decrease approximately log-log linearly with distance at receptors more
                                    2-9

-------
100.0
     0.1     0.2     0.5    1.0    2.0      5.0    10.0    20.0

                 Downwind Distance from Source  (km)

 Source:  Systems Applications, Incorporated computations using
          SAI dispersion model and SAI building wake algorithms,
      FIGURE 2-2 EFFECT OF BUILDING WAKE ON CONCENTRATION
                 DISTRIBUTION OF CHLOROPRENE
                             2-10

-------
     1000.0
                                • 20 m aฃ?ฃRENCt CASE)
        0.1    0'.2    OJ ''llo   2'.0     S'.O ' 10.0  20.0
                         OUUnci from Sourct (ta)
  Source:   Systems Applications,  Incorporated com-
            putations using SAI  dispersion model  and
            Briggs' plume rise formulas
FIGURE  2-3 IMPACTS OF RELEASE  HEIGHT ON CONCENTRATION
            DISTRIBUTION OF CHLOROPRENE
                          2-11

-------
than 2 km from the source.   A plot of this log-log linear relationship
could be used to interpolate concentrations at specific locations within
the range of 2 to 50 km from the source.
Exposure and Dosage Estimation Scheme
     The dispersion modeling approach is  coded in a standard Fortran program.
The output of the program is a concentration array for 160 receptors around
the plant (10 receptors along each of the 16 wind directions).   These are
the sum of concentration patterns resulting from all  sources within a
plant.  This subsection outlines the basic approach used in combining the
concentration pattern with  the population distribution pattern  around a
plant.  Three terms are defined here that will be used frequently in the
following discussion.  A polar grid point is one of the 160 receptors at
which concentrations are estimated by the dispersion modeling.   A population
centroid is the population-weighted geographical center of a BG/ED for
which geodetic coordinates  are known.  A  grid cell is defined as the area
bounded by two radial arcs  and two wind directions.
     Exposure is the product of the population and the concentration to
which that population is exposed.  To form this product, both the concentration
and the population must be  known at the same location or point.   The SHED
model uses a two-level interpolation scheme to pair the concentrations with
populations prior to the compution of dosages and exposures.  The two-level
approach is appropriate because the concentrations are defined on a radius-
azimuth (polar) grid pattern with non-uniform spacing.  This means that at
small radii the grid cells  are much smaller than BG/EDs while at larger radii
the grid cells are much larger than 8G/EDs.  Interpolation techniques are most
appropriately applied by interpolating values of the factor defined on a
coarse network (larger) at the locations  of the finer (smaller)  network, thus
                                    2-12

-------
maximizing the resolution and minimizing the uncertainties of interpolation.
As previously mentioned, the fine/course relationship between polar grid
cells and BG/EDs varies with radius.  Hence, the two level approach allows
the BG/ED population to be interpolated to the grid point when the BG/EDs
are larger than the grid cells and allows the grid point concentration to
       i *
be interpolated to the BG/ED centrofd when the reverse is true.   The details
of this approach are outlined below.  The numbers used assume the analysis
is to he completed for a 50 km radius.  If the maximum radius changes, so
will the radii of the grid points.
     For BG/ED centroids located between 0.2 km and 3.5 km from the source,
populations are apportioned among neighboring polar grid points.   There are
64 (4 x 16) polar grid points within this range.  Associated with each of
these grid points, at which the concentration is known, is a smaller polar
sector bounded by two concentric arcs and two radial  lines.   The  boundary
concentric arcs are defined by radii of .10, .35, .75, 1.5,  and  3.5 km and
the boundary radial lines are drawn right in the middle of two wind directions.
These boundary lines are represented by the dashed lines in  Figure 2-4.   Each
of the polar grid points are assigned to the nearest BG/ED centroid identified
from the census data set.  The population at each centroid is then apportioned
among all polar grid points assigned to that centroid according  to the area
of the polar sector associated with the grid point.   For example, all  of
the polar grid points (labeled b) nearest population centroid 3 would be
assigned a certain proportion of the people in B.  The ratio between the
area of the polar sector and the area assigned to the population  centroid
determine the proportionment.  Thus, the population density  is assumed to
be the same for all polar sectors assigned to a single centroid.   Figure 2-4
shows that the grid points closer to the source are boxed in by much smaller
                                    2-13

-------
Figure 2-4.  Pairing of BG/ED with Concentration Within A 3.5 Km Radius
                        Population  Centroid
                                                                      Polar Grid Point
                                                  Polar  Sector
A, B, C - Locations of BG/ED Centroids

a  b  c - Polar grid points to be allocated a portion  of  population
          reported at centroids A, B, C,  respectively.

-------
sectors than those further away.   Hence, the b grid points closer to the
center will  receive a smaller apportionment of the people from population
centroid 3 than those further away.   Both concentration and population
counts are thus available for each polar grid point.
     Log-log linear interpolation is used to estimate the concentration at
        i *
each ED/BG population centroid located between 3.5 km and 50 km from the
source.  Concentration estimates  for 96 (6 x 16)  grid points (receptors at
5.0, 10.0, 20.0, 30.0, 40.0 and 50.0 km from the  source along each of the
sixteen directions) resulting from dispersion modeling are used here as
reference points for this interpolation.  For each ED/BG centroid, four
reference points are located at the four corners  of the polar sector in
which the centroid is located.  These four reference  points (labeled Cj,  Cg,
03, and 64)  would surround the centroid (Cx) as depicted in Figure 2-5.   As
shown in Figures 2-1, 2-2, and 2-3,  there is a linear relationship between
the logarithm of concentrations and the logarithm of  distances for receptors
more than 2.0 kn away from the source.  This relationship is used to estimate
the concentrations at points CAj  and CA2 (see Figure  2-5).  These estimates,
are then linearly interpolated with the polar angle to determine the con-
centration at the centroid (Cx).   Using the two-level  approach,  concentrations
and populations are paired up for the 64 concentration grid points within
3.5 km of the source and for all  3G/ED centroids  located between 3.5 km and
50 km fron the source.
     The total dosage was then computed as follows:
                                                 11
        Total Annual  Dosage (ug/nr-person)  =     / ^  P^Ci
 N
 ^M

i™
                                    2-15

-------
Figure 2-5
                 Log-linear Interpolation Scheme
\
|C3 \ CA2
1

C4
Given:
A   -
R2  -
C\  -
C2  -
03  =
04  s
      The angle in degrees subtended clockwise about the source from due south
      to the BG/ED centroid;
      The angle from due south to the radial line immediately counterclockwise
      from A, or passing through A if there is an exact match;
      The angle from the south to the radial line immediately clockwise of A]_
      (A2 is 0 if it is due south);
      The distance from the source to the BG/ED centroid;
      The distance from the source to the largest circular arc of radius on
      grid that is less than R;
      The distance from the source to the smallest circular arc of radius on
      grid that is greater than or equal to R;
      The concentration value at (A^,
      The concentration value at (A]_,
      The concentration value at (Ag,
      The concentration value at (A2ป Rฃ);  then
      exp (In GI + (In Ca - In GI) (In R - In
      exp (In 03 •ป• (In C^ - In €3) (In R - In
          +  (CA2 - CAi)(A - A!) / (A2 -
                                                  / (In R2 - In
                                                  / (In R2 - In
                                 2-16

-------
where P^  = the population  at point  i,  C^  = the annual average concentra-
tion at point i,  and N = the total  number of  grid points and EO/BG cen-
troids with a specified combination of concentration and population
(representing the entire area within 50 km of the source).
     The population exposed to each of a  number of concentration levels,
Lj, was computed  by:
                                           N
                                          m
            Exposure to Lj (person) =
where
                           if  Ci  <  Lj
                           if
The dosage of the fraction of  the  population  that  is exposed to concentra-
tions greater than or equal  to each  of a number of concentration levels,.
Lj, was computed by using the  following summation:
Annua
           l  Dosage at Lj  (ug/m3 -person)  =    \^   ฐiCiSi (Ci ,Lj)
Note that the annual  dosage  at  the  minimum concentration within 50 km of
the source will equal the total annual  dosage.
                                    2-17

-------
     The concentration levels at which exposure Is to be estimated are
selected by an exponential  function coded In the program.
2-4.  Assumptions
     In order for SHED to be simple, run quickly and require as little
input data as it does, certain assumptions must be made.  This section
       i '
outlines the necessary assumptions to provide the user with an understanding
of the limitations of the model  and the need to consider such limitations
in the use of the output data.
Population Count Errors
     The SHED model uses census  data to the 8G/ED level.  Although this is
the smallest defined population  unit, it still  places on average approximately
800 people at one point.  In reality, some people will reside closer to the
plant and may be more highly exposed.  For others, the modeled exposure
*ill be an overestimate of the actual exposure.
     Another problem occurs when two plants are located within 50 km of one
another.  The people who are exposed to both plants will be counted twice
in the summation of the exposed  population.  Although the number of people
will be an overestimate, the dosage (people times concentrations) is not
affected by the overlap of the study areas.  Two people each exposed to a
concentration X from one of two  plants is regarded as the same amount of
exposure as a single person exposed to a concentration of X from both.
Populations may be partially doublecounted if sources are close to each
other, but aggregate exposure is not.
     The SHEO model may also mislocate people if a plant is located near a
large body of water.  The manner in which SHED spreads the population to
the concentrations within the 3.5 km radius allows the program to assign
                                    2-18

-------
people to areas which may be covered by bodies of water.   One potential
problem may arise if the program determines a maximum concentration to which
people are exposed that is located over a lake or other body of water.  In
this case, it could be argued that no one is actually exposed to this con-
centration.  For those sources that appear to produce maximum concentrations,
       i  '
identification of the receptor location and consultation  of topographical
maps to verify public exposure is recommended.  If the maximum receptor is
located in an area where people would not reside, the next highest receptor
should be used or that plant should be modeled individually with a different
more specific model.
Concentration Pattern Errors
     The concentration patterns used in the exposure computations are
obtained through atmospheric dispersion modeling based on known source
characteristics and weather patterns at nearby stations.   Naturally,  any
deviations in these estimates from the true pattern directly affect the
exposure results.  Thus, if the nearest STAR station is 50 - 100 miles
away, the weather patterns may not be representative of the weather
patterns in the area around the source.
     The program also assumes flat terrain.  This is especially crucial
when dealing with sources in a valley/mountainous area because the STAR
station will not give adequate information to model the wind patterns
accurately.
     In addition, the SHEO model uses a Gaussian dispersion model  to  determine
the concentrations around the source.  This model is based on how gases  will
act when dispersed from a stack.  Thus, if the pollutant  is fibrous or
particulate, such as asbestos, the assumption that the pollutant behaves
as a gas may misrepresent the actual dispersion pattern.
                                    2-19

-------
     The assumption Is also made that the annual  average weather conditions
continually persist and that the source emits at the annual  average amount.
At times, these averages may not be representative over shorter terms.   It
also assumes that each recorded wind persists in a given direction long
enough to yield dispersion out to 50 Km.
       i  '
Commuting Pattern Errors
     There are also time-dependent aspects of the exposure problem.   The
exposure program uses a time-averaged concentration pattern  for each  source,
so that the time dimension is ignored in the computations.  If the population
distribution were essentially constant over the averaging time period,  the
resulting estimates would be true averages.  However, population distributions
are constantly changing as people commute to work, go shopping, and take
longer trips.  Particularly in urban industrial centers, the shifts in
populations and concentrations throughout the day may be highly correlated;
thus, the actual exposure may differ considerably from the value obtained
by matching time-averaged concentrations with population distributions
based on census addresses.  Whether the exposure is over- or underestimated
depends on whether populations in the vicinity of a source are drained
(e.g., because people leave residences near the source for work in an urban
center) or are augmented (e.g., because of employment near the source).
2-5.  Using the SHED Model
     To use the model you must first obtain (1) a user 10, (2) an account
number and (3) a project 10.  These may be obtained by following the
instructions in Section 1-3.  You, the user, may then access and use  the
HEM by the procedures described throughout this chapter.
                                    2-20

-------
Logging On
     Generally, when you approach a hard-wired terminal, the screen will be
blank but the terminal is on.  To get the Sperry log on directions push the
button labeled transmit (or XMIT).  The screen should now look like this:

          ****************************************************
        ! • *                                                  *
          *       Welcome  to the Sperry 110/82 System!      *
          *                                                  *
          *       "Tab" to the desired session and XMIT      *
          *                                                  *
          *            DEMAND for a DEMAND session           *
          *                                                  *
          *            MAPPER for a MAPPER session           *
          *                                                  *
          ****************************************************
     The small rectangle in the upper left corner is the cursor.   The cursor
may be moved by pressing any of the directional keys, the space bar, the
back space, tab forward or tab back.  The easiest way to position the cursor
in this instance is to press TAB FWD as indicated by the directions.  This
should place the cursor immediately following the first "DEMAND"  on the
screen.  Now press XMIT.  If you are accessing the model through  a moden,
you must establish communication with the UNI VAC computer.   The commercial
phone number for the NCC is (919) 541-4642.  Long distance  users  can use
TELENET to reduce phone charges.  Please refer to Section 1-4 for the
appropriate contact personnel who can help with more specific instructions.
Once you are connected with the NCC, press XMIT.  The screen will write the
options for access.  Type UNI and hit XMIT.
     After requesting the UNI VAC demand mode with either the hardwired
system or the modem connection, the screen should roll  up and write
the following:
          xxxxxxxxxxxxxx  ENTER USER ID/PASSWORD:
     If the soe (>) or prompt and cursor appear above the line, type
                                    2-21

-------
@@INS 11 and XMIT.   This should move the cursor below the line.   The very



first time you log on to the terminal,  you must type your user ID,  a slash



(/), your user 10 again, a slash (/) and your password.   The password is



your own invention but after the first  log on remains the same until  changed



(i.e., remember what you used).  After  the first log on,  you simply type



your user 10, a slash (/) and your password.   At any time, you may  change
        i '


your password when you log on.  UNI VAC  requires that you  change your password



every 90 days.  This is accomplished by typing your user  ID, a slash .(/),



your old password, a slash (/), and your new  password.  Remember  to hit  XMIT,



enter or return in order to enter any line.   The system should respond with:



           * Destroy user-IO/password entry



           * UNI VAC 110 Operating System



             Enter Run ID or (CR) for default to USER ID



     The Run 10 consists of 2-6 characters which are chosen from  A-2 and



0-9 only.  As a National Computer Center (NCC) user, the  first two  characters



of the Run 10 should be your MCC bin number.   The last four characters



can be anything which will allow you to identify your run.  The user's



initials are often chosen for this reason.



     Always press XMIT enter or return  after  typing any line to be  entered.



     The computer will then ask a series of questions which you,  the user,



answers.  The example below shows the questions the computer will ask



(underlined here to distinguish from user response) and the user's  response



to each question.



      Enter Run 10 or (CR) for Default  to USER ID



      08 XY



      Enter Account Number



      69096FRZ



      Enter Project-ID



      ABCD



                                 2-22

-------
      Enter UID
      SASDPHEP
     After typing each response, the user must hit XMIT for the transmission
of the response.  After entering the final  response, the computer will  type
out several lines of information.  For example:
      Run Number 46
      Last Run at:  072784 140637
      Date:  073084  Time:  103448
      *** News Current as of 11:19:47 on 07/23/84 ****
     When the computer stops typing information and the cursor stops beside
an soe (>) you are logged on to the computer and ready to begin.
                                   * * *
       NOTE:  For all the instructions below, all  information  within
              commands which are specific to your  file or run  will  be
              typed in small letters and contained in parentheses.   For
              example, @@CONS RC (run id) means type @@CONS RC 08PT if
              08PT is the run id of the run you needed to check.   Dp_
              not type the paretheses.
                                   * * *

Cataloging Files
     The UNIVAC system works with two types of files; data files  and program
files.  Contrary to its title, the program file is used only for  storage
and may be broken into elements to store several sets of data. The data
file has only one set of data and is available for use by the  program.
     In order to use the HEM, a program file must  be cataloged to store
data and two data files must be cataloged in order to run the  program
                                    2-23

-------
(one more data file must be cataloged in order to run Decay rates for the
chemical).  To catalog these files certain commands must be entered which
basically name the files.  Many catalog options are available but the catalog
statements conventionally used to catalog the files for HEM are:

       Program file:    @CAT,P (FileName).,F33,NCC040
                       	       	^*^._.     	
                     /                             "N
                       1-12 Alphanumeric characters
         Data files:    ?CAT,P  (Qualifier)*Gauss-in.,F33, NCC040
                       1-12 Alphanumeric characters ^
                        flCAT.P  (Oualifier)*Gauss-out.,F33,NCC040
                             ASAME AS ABOVE
                        0CAT.P  (Qualifier)*0ecay.,F33,NCC040
                              f
                               SAME AS ABOVE
Please type the above lines exactly as they appear except the "Filename"
and "Qualifier" should be your own invention.  The Filename in Line(l) may be
any alphanumeric name with 1-12 characters.  The Qualifier lines (2), (3)
and (4) may also be any alphanumeric name of 1-12 characters.  The Qualifier
used in line (2) must, however, be exactly the same as the Qualifier in lines
(3) and (4).
      Once this is accomplished, you have cataloged all the files you will
ever need to catalog to run HEM.  As previously mentioned, the program file
cataloged by line (1) can store a larqe number of files under various element
names.  To run the program you can empty the GAUSS-IN file and add the data
from the element.  This must be done because data files (GAUSS-IN is a data
file) cannot be broken into elements.  By emptying and reusing the
GAUSS-IN. file, however you only need one.
     At this time, a discussion of file names is pertinent.  A program file
name has three primary parts:  the qualifier, file name, and element name.
                                    2-24

-------
It looks like this:
                    Dualifier*Filename.Element
The cataloging instructions given above do not give the program file  a  qualifier.
Hence, the system assumes that the project 10 (which was used  to log  on)  is
the qualifier.  If a different project ID is used to log on, the old  project ID
must be included as the qualifier when calling the file.  Otherwise the
Filename.Element is sufficient to call the file.
     Data files have only two primary parts because data files have no  elements.
Data files look like this:
                          Qualifier*Filename.
In the case of HEM data files the file name is always GAUSS-IM, GAUSS-OUT
and DECAY.  The qualifier is not the project 10 but whatever was assigned
when the files were cataloged.
     Now that all necessary files have been cataloged, data can be  entered
using the instructions below.
Entering Data
     To enter data into a file a text editor must be used.  Several text
editors are available but the most frequently used on the UNI VAC for  HEM  is
the Maryland Editor.  PC users familiar with the PC editor and KERMIT or
XTALK can create a file in  the proper format on the PC and send the file  to
the UNI VAC.  A text editor has various commands which allow data to be
input, changed, rearranged and/or deleted.   A summary of often used commands
for the Maryland Editor is  shown in Appendix C.  At this point it is  important
to read Appendix C and become sonewhat familiar with the commands listed.
A complete list of commands for the Maryland Editor nay be found in the "Text
Editor User's Guide" by Hagerty and Sibbald (1975).
     To call the Maryland Editor, enter the command (?EOM, a space,  the
file name which has been cataloged, a oeriod and an element name.

                                    2-25

-------
For example:
     @EDM Filename.Element (An element is any alphanumeric name
                           including "-" which has 1-12 characters)
The first time this file element is accessed, the element is created and
the editor automatically places you in input mode.  The UNIVAC will respond
with:
              F.DM 2981 MEM 02/28/86  16:34 I(0):F
              INPUT
              >
Please hit XMIT, enter or return as suggested in Appendix C to get to the
edit mode and use the commands listed there to input the data.  When you
hit XMIT, or when you enter an element that has been created previously,
the UNIVAC responds with:
              EDIT
              *>
Once in the edit mode, the file is ready for entering data.  The format in
which data must be entered for HEM is discussed in the following subsection.
Data Format
     The HEM is designed such that the program reads numbers from certain
columns and rows of data.  If the numbers are not in the proper position,
the computer will misread the data.  This can cause unusual and incorrect
results or  prevent the program from completing the run.  Thus, this section
is very important to  follow closely.  To check to see if a line has been
entered correctly type P and XMIT.  This should print the line.  Next type
SC and  XMIT.   This will print a scale of numbers under the line to make
column  counting easier.
     Each  line  of data, referred to as a card, has a specific function and
format.  The  first card to be entered is entered once for each run and
contains the  following information [Remember to type I and a space in order
to enter the  data  in  the edit mode]:
                                    2-26

-------
          Columns  1-5   =   Greater  than  or equal  to  the  number of plants;
                            right  justified (used  as  scratch space
                            allocation)
          Columns  6  -  10  =   Blank  spaces
          Column  11       =   Indicator  as  to whether maps  are to be produced
                            as  part  of the output, (Maps  - Table of estimated
                            BG/EO  and  Population at centroid by 16 wind
                            directions and 10 distances), T = Yes, F = Mo
          Column  12       =   Indicator  as  to whether the exposure analysis
                            should be  performed out to each ring distance
                            separately, T = Yes, F =  No
        Columns  13-23   =   Unit  risk  number for lifetime risk
      Next,  one  set  of three cards is  entered for  each facility.  They contain
the following information:
          Card 1,  Columns 1-80  =  The name of the chemical being modeled.
          Card 2,  Columns 1-80  =  The location of the  facility given as the
                                 facility name, city  and  state.
          Card 3,  Columns 1-6  =  Latitude of the facility in degrees, minutes,
                                 seconds. (Two digits each with no spaces
                                 or  symbols between,  e.g., 414900).
                  Columns 7-13  =  Longitude of the  facility in degrees (must be
                                 three digits), minutes,  seconds,  (e.g., 0784900).
                 Columns  14-18  =  Star  site identification number.  This is the
                                 location to be used  as a source for meteorological
                                 data  by  the model.   It is optional and if a number
                                 is  not provided (the field is left blank) the
                                    2-27

-------
                            program will  automatically  find  the  closest
                            source  of meteorological  data  and  use  it (see
                            note below).
            Columns 19-38 = Meteorological  data values  which may be  left
                            blank if such meteorological data  are  not avail-
                            able.  The program will  automatically  use
  i  '
                            standard values for these fields.   (19-23 = ambient
                            temperature in degrees Kelvin, 24-28 = temperature
                            lapse rate to be used for 0 stability, 29-33 =
                            temperature lapse rate to be used  for  E  stability^
                            34-38 = temperature lapse rate to  be used for F
                            stability).  (See note below)
                              * * *
NOTE:  To make data entry easier, enter all columns  of  consecutive
       data using I, space, and the data.  If several blank  spaces
       are to be entered between the first group of  data and the
       next group, enter the first group hit XMIT and use  the  R,
       column number command to enter the second group. For
       example, to enter card 3 with samole data type:
                   I 4249000784900  (XMIT)
                   R,39 000001
      This will enter 42ฐ49'00" for the latitude, 78ฐ49'00"
      for the longitude, blanks for the star site and
      meteorological data, urban setting and one source at
      the facility.
                              * * *
            Column 39     = Indicator as to whether  the facility is  located in
                            an urban or rural setting.   0  =  urban; 1 = rural
                               2-28

-------
                 Columns 40-44 = Total  number of  sources  to  be  modeled  at  this
                                 facility  (right  justified).  These columns  must
                                 be filled and must be  accurate or the  program
                                 will  not  run.
     Finally a set of cards,  one card  for  each source at  the facility identified
in columns 40 - 44 in card 3,  is entered.   These  cards  give  the emission
characteristics of each source as follows:
                 Column 1      - Indicator as to  emission type, P = process
                                 vent,
                                 S = storage  vent,  F =  fugitive emissions,
                                 H = stack.
                 Columns 2-13  = Emission  rate in kg/year including decimal
                                 point.
                 Columns 14-17 = Release height (Stack, vent or height  of  fugitive
                                 release)  in  meters with  decimal point.
                 Columns 13-21 = For P,  S  or  H, this is the  vertical building
                                 (off  vent or stack) cross-sectional area
                                 (m^)  perpendicular to  the mean wind flow,
                                 including decimal  point.  For  F, this  is
                                 the area  of  release.   This  should be right
                                 justified or contain a decimal  point.   (The
                                 area  should  never  exceed 2000  m^.)
                 Column 22     = Indicator as to  vent type,  0 = vertical stack,
                                 1 = non-vertical stack or vent.
                 Columns 23-25 = Inside  stack or  vent diameter  in meters including
                                 decimal point.  (For fugitive  leave blank)
                                    2-29

-------
                 Columns 27-31 = Gas exit velocity from vent or stack in m/sec
                                 including decimal point.  (If this is unknown,
                                 use at least 0.1 m/sec.)
                 Columns 32-35 = Gas exit temperature in degrees K including
                                 decimal  point.  (If unknown, use 293-298 K.)
Figure 2-6 gives a good summary of all  the above data.  A xeroxed copy of that
figure and Appendix C (or this manual)  should always be available while
adding data to a file.
     You should now look at your file.   The commands
                                   T     XMIT
                                 0 9     XMIT
will allow you to see the first 9 lines of your file.  Please compare this
to Figure 2-7, a typical program file.   Using the delete, change and SC
commands correct your file so that it will contain the information you
want.
     You should now exit the file.  To do this type "Exit" while you are in
the edit mode.  If you are running a chemical with no chemical reactivity,
you are finished entering data and may skip to "Running the Program."  If
your chemical has chemical decay, you must follow additional instructions
below.
     In order to run a program with chemical decay, a separate file must be
opened.  A good suggestion to remember which decay file coincides with which
source  file  is to add -DK to the title of the source file to entitle the decay
file.   So, to open the file (again using the Maryland editor), type:
     0EDM File Name. Element-DK
Only one card is entered into this file which contains the following information
in  the  following format:
                                    2-30

-------

at" j "
a
LU
i

to

z:
cr

QC:
a

a

or

p
=5
CC
^ QC
O aJ
Q_
z:
fV
O
tO u_

a u~.
~ ^~
cr ~
i jj
•o c =
a 1
f^f_ (j
_j cr ฃ
< — 1
^ ^ r- ซ ~"
^ -r-=-i
f"V*" •^gป ^ C 3
I ~ -f^ ~" _VMW
o
1 —
K™*-
^^ป
y ซ
^ซ
0 ง ii
_j ง *
C_j C/") — z '


1 s
i—
- 3
C_>
: cr
u_
cc
; LU
a
z
u tO
u. a
I cc
(/>
, ^
^
I "" m
- S -
,.
-u u-l
j 2ซ LU
" z 5 X
- ac z
• i x ฐ
• -ซ5 "z.
au ._
_ao 2
: zงr o

- =iง _i
2U14/T ^
IAV7W7 __
WO~> \_^
• ^ s
zuz
-1 iza LU
iง5 h^
. au-o
• feS^ ^
- ac^w
UJ3Z
" A O*ป ,_
" 3V7O
• ztza UJ
: sss ^

J 	 , vn a
, 62
csl "" "

?i
ai i
— 1 .1 ! 1
a -
- ^ *
"™ ^~^
?
1;
is

w

|;

r =


•
K—

—
(_3
I cr I
i ,
LL. •
I LU ;
i —
i —
'. cr ;
LU

'. cc ;
~~~f
'- a -
00 4
" "
4 LJ -1
-( cr 4
LU
. OT Qฑ
- - O
' Si ^ •
. z* 0^5^-
8C ซ^ ปn "~ ~
- 5W — , = -
— — 3 ^ ^
- zw 5-^3"
• ig a ซ= j
^z U_ " S |

^ - d fu J
- tt
-------
          Figure  2-7.   Typical  SHED Data File
OOOO4      FF     OO76
ASBESTOS
PLANT NAME      NEW  YORK  CITY
4O43OOO74O10O                              O      1
F144.          1O.O1OO.11O.O.OOO9293
PLANT NAME      RALEIGH,  NC
334700O7839OO                              O      I
Ffe . 8O          10 010O 110.O OOO9S93
ASBESTOS
PLANT NAME      MONTPELIER, VT
44160O07S3'5OO                              O      1
F  1 SO          1 O O 10O • 1 1 O O . OOOซ3a<93
ASBESTOS
PLANT NAME:      PHEONIX,  A/
4244560734145                              OOOOO3
H30 19         4 . ซ5Ofe 1 3 • O . 2 1 fe 1 S3 . 4fe2ซ97
HHOO3          7 . "5O6 1 3 . O . ป 1 6 1 1  H^H^ /'
11:? 14 so        1 a fofo 13 o . 7ซ->o 14  '::;4;.ป<:) /
                             2-32

-------
     Columns 1-10:    Daytime Decay rate (/minute)
     Columns 11- 20:  Nighttime Decay rate (/minute)
To convert half-lives to decay rates, you may use the following formula:
     Decay Rate = 0.693/Ti/2
     where 1\/2 *s the half-life in minutes.

Running the Program
     Entering data into the program file stores the data for future use.
The contents of the program file must be entered into the data file in
order to run the program.
     Adding the program file to the data file consists of three simple
steps: 1) open the file, 2) delete any previously stored data, and 3)  copy
the program file into the data file.  These steps can be easily performed
using any text editor.  The Maryland Editor would use the following commands:
     (?EOM (Qualifier)*Gauss-In.     XMIT [Hit XMIT a second time if not in
                                    edit mode.]
     D *                            XMIT [This step deletes all previously
                                    stored data.]
     Add (Filename).(Element)       XMIT
     This places the data from the source parameter program file into  the
Gauss-In data file.  If decay rates are to be included, this data must also
be entered into a data file.  To do this, using the Maryland editor, type:
     ซEDM (Qualifier)*0ecay.        XMIT
     0 *                            XMIT
     Add (Filename).(Element-DK)    XMIT
     Once the data is added to the file, the file should be exited and a
start card entered.  The start card for the HEM without chemical  decay
                                    2-33

-------
should be entered as below:
     @Start  SASD*Start.Xposure/Point-50,/(Site ID),,,(Qualifier)
The start card for the HEM with chemical  decay  should be entered  as  follows:
     $Start  SASO*Start.Xposure/Decay-50,/(Site 10),,, (Qualifier)
     The site 10 is the code which indicates where the results  will  be printed.
If the site 10 is omitted the results will  be printed at Research  Triangle Park.
A site 10 of FD05CR will cause the results  to be printed on the 6th  floor of
the Mutual Building.  Most regional  offices have a printer dedicated to the
UNIVAC that will have a Site 10.  If there  is not a UNIVAC printer available
to you, please see the information below.   The  Qualifier is the same as the
Qualifier in Qualifier*Gauss-In and Qualifier*0ecay.   Once XMIT is hit, the
computer will print out a line of information.   This  information  states the
run 10, the category and whether the project was accepted or rejected.  If
it is accepted, the program is queued for execution and it is a matter of
time before the results will be printed.
     The run 10 is the value printed after  *TM*.  If  you would  like  to know
if the program has finished, you may use the run 10 in one of two  commands.
The first is:
     30CONS RC (run id)
     This /nil tell you how many pages have been finished or if the program
has "finned."  The second:
     0SASD*WAIT.WAIT  (run id)
will give you the same information but will continue to update  the information
every 60 seconds or when the XMIT key is pressed.  Typing any other command
cancels the 0WAIT.WAIT command.
     Users who are using a  remote terminal  and who do not wish  the results
of the SHED  run to go to the National Computer Center (NCC) and do not have
                                    2-34

-------
access to another site ID should use a different run card.  This is typed as


as follows for the 50 Km run:


     @ START   SASD*START.XPOSURE/USER-50,,,(Filename)


     The 50 may be replaced with 20 or 80 for 20 Km or 80 Km analyses.


Once executed, the file will not print out but will be saved until  you
        t '

type in:


     (?@SEND, U


     This down loads the files to your PC.  Before typing this, however,


check on the file to see if it has been completed and is in the queue for


being printed.  To do this type:


     @CONS SX (run id)


Additional Miscellaneous Information


     If the program is accepted but does not complete running,  the  most


common error is in the entering of the data.  To check  the  data in  the file,


reopen the file with the @EDM Filename.Element command  and  type:


          NSITE X Y  RM95PR


                                    2-35

-------
The symbols "X" and "Y" here reoresent the the beginning line number and
ending line number.  The RM95PR indicates  where the  data will  be  printed.
This specific code is for the Mutual  Building 6th floor printer.   Other
codes should be printed if another location is desired.
     When the printout is available make sure all the data was entered
        i '
exactly as the cards indicate.  The most common error is inconsistency
between the number of point sources indicated in the third card and the
number of emission point source data listed.   This will  prevent the program
from running.
     Another common problem occurs when large amounts of data are being
run.  If the run takes longer than 10 minutes to run, the system  will  "time
out".  This can be resolved by adding a comma and the number of minutes
needed to run the program to the end of the start statement.   For example,
if 30 minutes were needed, the start card would appear as below:
     flStart  SASO*Start.Xposure/Point-50,/(site id),,,(Qualifier),30
     Printouts of programs which exceed 200 pages are not allowed to be
printed on the Mutual Building printer.  A simple addition to the start
card will cause only the summary pages to be printed at the Mutual Building
or other Site ID while the bulk of the material is laser printed  at Research
Triangle Park.  The simple addition is "-L" and is inserted after xposure
as below:
     fcStart  SASO*Start.Xposure-L/Point-50,/(site id),,,(Qualifier),30
     This manual cannot cover all possible errors and you will probably
find newer and more exciting ways to make mistakes.   Therefore, please use
References 2 and 3 to help find your errors, correct them and naybe learn  a
few short cuts.
                                    2-36

-------
2-6.   Using Output from other Dispersion Models
     The exposure portion of SHED model  can  be run using concentration
inputs from other dispersion models.   To do  this,  the concentration  file
must be in a compatible format.   The  Model Application Section  of  the
Monitoring and Data Analysis Division in the OAOPS ((919)  541-5690 or FTS
       i  '
629-5690) has succeeded in causing the Industrial  Source Complex Long-Term
Dispersion Model  (ISCLT) to yield compatible output.   Once the  ISCLT .output
is stored, you need only the filename and element  (if there is  one)  to
access the concentrations.

Entering Data
     Similar to running SHED without  concentration input data you  must  set
up a file.  The following information describes what  data  must  be  entered
and the proper format.
     The first card is  entered once for  each run and  contains the  following
information:
     Columns 2-3

     Column 4
     Column 5
     Columns 6-10
     Columns 11-20
= Number of radial  rings you wish to analyze,  right
   justified (generally 10).
= Indicator as to whether maps  are to be supplied
  as part of the output, (maps  -  table of estimated
  BG/ED and population at centroid by 16 wind
  directions and 10 distances), T = Yes, F = Mo.
= Indicator as to whether the exposure analysis
  should be performed out to each ring distance
  separately, T = Yes, F = No.
= Number of sources to be analyzed.
= Conversion factor.   (This number will  be multiplied
  times the concentration points  to yield a converted
             2-37

-------
                         concentration.   Since the  emission  rate  is  propor-
                         tional  to  the concentration  points,  this  factor may
                         be used to analyze  various possible  emission  rates
                         with  only  one  ISCLT run.   Enter  1.0  if you  wish the
                         concentration  points to  remain the  same).
       i *
     Columns 21-30     = Unit  Risk  Number for lifetime risk;  right justified.
     The second, third, and fourth  cards  are entered  only once  for each run
and depend on the number entered above  as the number  of radial  rings.   If  the
number is ten or less, only card 2  needs  to  be completed.  If the  number is
twenty or less, cards 2 and 3  must  be filled.  If the number  is  thirty or
less, cards 2, 3 and 4 must be used.  The program is  prepared to  handle only
up to 30 radial distances.   The format  for each of  the cards  is  identical.
Eight digits are allowed for each distance,  ten distances are allowed  per
card.  For example, the first  three distances would be entered  as  below on
card 1:
     Columns 1-8       = radial  distance  closest to the plant (Km)
     Columns 9-16      = radial  distance  second closest to the  plant (Km)
     Columns 17-24     = radial  distance  third closes to  the plant (Km)
     The next group of cards is entered for  each  plant or each  chemical
analyzed and contain the following information:
     Card 1, Columns 1-80     = Title of  the concentration chart that
                                will be output.  Generally,  we  enter,
                                "Concentration in Micrograms per Cubic
                                Meter."
     Card 2, Columns 1-80     = The name  of  the chemical  being  modeled.
     Card 3, Columns 1-80     = Name of the  facility.
                                    2-38

-------
     Card 4, Columns 2-7      = Latitude of the facility in degrees,
                                minutes, seconds (two digits each).
     Columns 9-15             = Longitude of the facility in degrees
                                (three digits), minutes (two digits)
                                and seconds (two digits).
     Now the concentration information must be added to the file.  If you
are analyzing only one plant and have only one concentration group, you may
add the entire file with the following command:
     ADD  concentration filename.element
     If you have concentration results for several  plants,  you may add blocks
of data with the following command:
     NUMADD concentration filename.element  x  y
where x is the starting line number and y is the ending line number of the
section you want to copy.
     The process of entering plant data and copying the concentration file
for that chemical must be repeated until all plants have been entered.
Running the Program
     Once the program file is complete, it must be  entered  into the data
file in order to run the program.   This process is  identical  to running
SHED without concentration inputs  except that the data file is called
GAUSS-OUT, rather than GAUSS-IN..   Using the Maryland editor, you would
type the following commands:
     (3EDM (Qualifier)*GAUSS-OUT.        XMIT
     D *                                XMIT
     ADD Filename.Element               XMIT
     Once the data has been entered into the data file, you may type the
following start card to execute the program:
                                    2-39

-------
     0START    SASD*START.XPOSURE/XQT,/(Site id),,,(Qual1fler)
     Now you may follow the Instructions  in Section  2-5  to check  on  the
status of the run and obtain the printout.
2-7.  Output from SHED
     SHED produces two sets of output.   The first  set included  the input data
        t '
and the concentration grid table for each plant and  the  cumtnlulative risk summary
and the overall plant summary.  This set also contains maps of  population
centroids if this option was selected.   The second set contains only the
cummulative risk summary and the individual  plant  summary.
     This summary of the input data for one plant  is shown in Figure 2-8.
Some of the values are rounded off but  can  be used to proof the input data.
     The concentration grid, as shown in  Figure 2-9, presents the modeled
concentration at each grid point.   For  example, the  figure shows  that the
concentration 1.00 kilometers south of  the  plant is  predicted to  be
8.8588 x 10-6 g/m3.  The column labeled wind direction is  actual  direction
from the plant, not wind direction.
     The optional maps show the population  distribution  about the source as  a
polar grid displayed rectangularly.  The four plots  differ in the orientation of
their grids relative to the input concentration grid. Again, direction refers
to actual direction from the plant, not wind direction.
     The first plot, seen in Figure 2-10, shows both the number of 8G/EO
centroids and the number of people in each  cell of  the input concentration
grid.  The labels of the wind directions refer to  the line directly  above
them and the radius label refers to the line directly to the right.
     The second plot, seen in Figure 2-11,  gives the same type  of plot as the
first except that the spaces shown are  patches rather than grid cells.
                                    2-40

-------
 3
 CL
o


i-
cc
 i
CM

cu


en
                  s
                  ••
               2 o
                         M
                         > -i
                         -J Ul
                         UJ UJ
     uj 9

     K SJ
     U>
     uj 5 eg

     ฐs
      • *"<••
     fซ   in
     C^ •• UJ
  Ul 01 UJ CU
                                    a uj ib
                                    m in m
                                    m in in
                                    u u u

                                    >•>*>•
                                    ^ ป ป
                                    WWW
                                    _J _< .J
                                    W w W
                                    e a a
                                    ซ ซ <

                                    in in in
                U. u, U.


                ce ce ce
                Ul UJ Ul
                >— *• *•
                Ul UJ Ul
                                       ce ce
                                       UJ UJ
                                       c. o,
                                  UJ
                                  a in
       <ฃ   e
      i: _   uj
                                  e a:
                                 in uj
                                    a
               < o>
                — pi-
                in 5 m
  Z < S in
  < ce a in

- S ฃ - ?
cSroS
W    Ul U
t—    K   U,
<      -I O
I-    >- <
•" = = u ce
  < UJ M UJ

  ปป• I*1* Lit ""*
                                      UJ UJ
                                      c: K
                                      Q a
                                                                       S   S
                                                   >
                                                 SN
                                                 u ฃ
                                                                              in
                                 < o o o
                                 o: e e e
                                  in
                                  Q.
         in
                u ^ in u,
                ^

                w
                UJ
                CO
     *   -. rป
     ce -o i?- cu
     w ^ r* ca

     ^    S
     a N ui M

     >-Sง5

a    <2S*
in    rป p s
o    -T 5 5 r
S    r- uj -J ^
u     ^ o
                                              tf)

                                              S5

                                              uj in
                                                                  UJ < -I    0-1
                                                                  > ce w    o ซc
                                                                     U x    e u
to o o
Ul ^ O

SSS
c: o e in
u o 03 ce
                                                                              Hป   in ui
                                                                              ce in % ce
                                                                              uj ce in i3
                                                                              "
                                                                   u

                                                                   X
        • u s -o m
       0 UJ Q    W •ซ
       •e in CE      ui
ui           u, ••   a
g  -     in   ce ^ 5

5>-   WOCK>-"<
   <   = ce < uj w K
if*   ซ?ซ_ = ซ!"
                                                                   o in
ป   2uซ5gs:
5   S^iSiS
w     _ „   > _
     si e in ^
     o -j in u *. H-
                                                                                                      B)
     ce    u

  e2    =

-5C    ^
o u in    < at
•• uj —    3 u      Z
in m <    c <      w
in x ee    in >-      >
M in u>      in      -J
z c o     •     e ui
uj < -I    O -I   S ^
  ce M    o <   o
u ui *    o u   u n
>         p^ M   UJ UJ
m in o      i-   m uj
p- o o      ce in x ce
— — o      uj ce in a
O O O      ^ UJ tt UJ
Seem      *• ui a
u. o KI ce      u w
    •  • UJ  •*   Z Ul  •
—    •" •-  S     S ป
u.      iu  O   o    *
—      c  — < j- o- KI

n       •  u S oi o
       W  UJ O   CJ ••
x      KI  in ce      ui
ui           u. ••    ce

~ uj   ••  in uj uj ^ —
Wf-   N-OCSป-'-<
  <   :  ce ซ uj M ce

CL      M  u in < o CL
^Z   UJC9**ซ<^Z
WO   ZZOOujuj
                                                                                               m
                                                                                               in
                                                                                                   *: a in x
                                                                                                   u -J - 3 Z l- X X
                                                i uj   in CD uj in uj uj
         in
         in
         e
                                                                2-41

-------
c
o
O)
o
(O


Q_
 3
•a
•a
 c
  i
CM

 ai
 S-
 3
 C7)
                     i
                     u
                            i
                   in
                   a


                   i
                   ac
           in
           r
e
e
e
e
in


e


e
o
o

o
e
o
CM

O
e
e
o
o
0
o
in
o
e
e
eg

e
e
ft
o
0
in
e
0
eg

e
o
i
ft
8
*
e
i
o
4)
O
e
5
0
0
e
i
in
eg

e
ft
in
4}
4)
eg
4>
0
O
1
Kl
4)
in
e
e
i
eg
CM
e

o
e
i
0
8
o
e
i
eg
CM
0
e
e
i
0
eg
ft
Kl
0
e
i
e
Kl
"*
e
I
f*

e
e
i
in
4)
*ซ
e
o
i


e
e
i
0
4>
0
in
e
e
i
0
in
4j
in
o
e
i
eg
e
in

e
e
i
eg
in
e
e
•T
in
Kl
eg
41
e
o
i
Kl
*
eg
e
e
i
in
4}
*
e


ft
o
o
0
ft
e
e
i
ft

e
e
i
in
in
e
4)
0
e
i
0
in
o
e
i
e
2

o
e
i
ft
' ft
in
e
e
O
in
eg
ft
e
e
0
4)
eg
9.
e
e
i
Kl
Kl
ft
O


f-4
e
i
e
eg
o
e
i


e
o
i
eg
0
•r
in
in
e
e
i
ft
CM
CM
e
in
o
o
i
oป
Kl

e
o
i
e
Kl
a
uv
0
e
i
ft
ft
•o
e
e
o
Kl
Kl
ft
e
e
i
in
e
ft
in
e
i
e
ID
e
e
i
CM
Kl
•O
e
o

0
o
Kl
ft
O
e
i
Kl
e
eg
41
0
e
i
eg
to
e

e
e
i
CM
4)
e
e
i
o
o
Kl
eg
e
e
i
eg
•f
4)
ft
1
O>
CM

O
1
S

o
e
t
4>
0
0
e
e
i
e

e
e
i
e
Kl
e
eg
o
e
i
e
•o
in
in
Kl
4>
O
e
i
3
Kl

O
O
1
9-
•e
e
e
i
in
*
Kl
in
e
o
i
CM
Kl
e
in
•cr
0
S

e
i
2
rป
e
i
eg
0
"
e
o
i
•r

e
e
t
e
o
4>
o
e
i
in
eg
Kl
4>
a
e
i
Kl

e
e
i
4)
e
e
i
o
e
in
•T
e
e
i
eg
o
*•
e
o
i
eg
S

e
i
ft
CM

O
1
0
0-
eg
e
e
i
in

e
o
i
0
o
in
e
0
i
4)
*
o
eg
eg
in
e
o
i
f.
4>
in
in
o
o
i
e
eg
e
in
e
o
i
CM
0
in
•o
e
o
i
o
•T
r-.
o
e
i
a

o
i
e
in
CM
e
o
0
0
Kl
Kl
e
e
i

in
e
o
0
Kl
0
in
e
e
0
in
Kl
eg
in
e
i
o-
in
m
e
e
i
CM
9-
in
e
e
i
oป
0
O
0
4)
e
e
o
in
•o
o
e
i
CM

e
i
in
e
N
e
e
in •
e
ft
e
e
i
in

e
o
i
Kl
in
0
Kl
in
e
o
ft
in

s
•cr
Kl
e
e
i
*

e
i
CM
in
e
e
i


o
e
i
S

e
e
i
in
•T
eg
Kl
in
0
i
r*.
e
•T
in
0
o
i

O 1 eg o o i in in e i e e •ป o e i . 4> CM 4) O e i e e o i 0 in eg in 0 o i r*. Kl in e e i e 0 ft e o i o e i 0 CM 0 ft ft in o o i F* 4> Kl eg ft r* e i CM 41 e e i eg - e e i o e - 0 e Kl 0 • eg e e i e 0 0 in 4) O 1 in 9- in o e i in •T 0 O 1 0 Kl in eg in o o •4 Kl ft 41 0 O 1 in in ft ft 4) e e i Kl 41 Kl e eg Kl - e e i in in eg e e i Kl Kl 4) Kl e e i 9- ft in 41 r*. in e a i ft Kl in ft in o e i eg in eg 0 e i 41 •T Kl Kl in e e i e CM S ft 41 O O 1 eg ft e s s ฃ to in UJ in UJ in UJ in in 2-42


-------
                   a
                   in
 a


•a



o
 sz
 o
 Q.

 O
Q_


•a
 c
 O
 ai
 c
 o
 13
 C.

 O

Q_
 o

 a.
o     S    5

       3    i
       ac    a:
       —    u

       5    "
 I

CM
ฑ     P    -
•<   o


I   2
Ul   M


i   ง      o

u   :      U   •<

     S      *


o   is

CL   5?   ซ
<   u 
O O
CM ซ3


0 0
in
0
a
u &
•x O



^4

^ CM
O O
o o
o e
O 0


o o
in
a
So.
52
M 0

O
ca

•o

in
Ul
r*> ซ^
•O
in
*r 43
o
^
o o
0 O


o o
in
a
Sa,
52
0 0





0 /ซ•
<\J M
g
09 —
-o
ซS4
fX
p- N.
in
o o


o o
in
ง
>- a.
52
it 0



at


-------
 u
4-1


a.
 c:
 o
 ra

 '3
 a.
 o
a.

•a
 o
 OJ
CJ
 3

 Q.

 O
Q.
 Q.
 ra
 ซ3      fl

 *—      w
  I
 CSJ


 ai
 s-
 3
 cn
u

S
1
         S   a
         *   1
       o
       o
       in
     in

*    5
S    5

2    r      S

o    ซ" x

ง    5".
s    gs
<    5 <   ซ

3    s0-   2
ฃ    ซ-J   a
     ฃB U   ซ
     S      "*
Ik    iw O
O    U tj

a    5 <   K
     Sum   M
       <   e












e e




e o
in
Q












e o




tn
0












o e




o e
in
o












e e




e o
tn
Q












o e




0 0
en
a





o





r**
p*ป
ซ
o e




o o
o





0
o

0

ซ•*
o
ป•<

in
o e




o o
0

e
ca

-a.
                               in
                                      in
                                      in
                                             35      35
=a   so   zo   =o   zo
u c.   u Q.   u a.   u*      "
                                                                                                                    ui      in      in     tn
                                                                         2-44

-------
Patches are defined by the midpoint between cell  radii  and the midpoint between
wind directions.   These patches form an area surrounding a receptor site
rather than each corner being a receptor site as  in the case of the grid cell.
     The last two plots, not shown here, are versions of the first plot, with
each input grid subdivided into quadrants.   For each quadrant, the number of
3G/EO centroids (third plot) or the population (fourth  plot) is shown.
     The cummulative summary is shown in Figure 2-12.  This table starts at
the highest concentration to which an individual  is exposed.  It then  reports
how many people are predicted to be exposed to that concentration and  the
resulting exoosure.  The exposure is the product  of the population and  con-
centration.  The next level is a certain increment lower concentration  (about
1/2 of the previous concentration)  with the number of  people exposed  to
that concentration or higher.  The exposure in this instance is the cummulative
exposure from the level 2 concentration and those higher.  The following levels
are similarly calculated until the concentration  level  reaches the miniumum
predicted.
     The overall plant summary is shown in  Figure 2-13.  Three such summaries
are usually produced.  The first is ordered according to the order of  the data
file.  The second is ordered highest to lowest by the maximum lifetime  risk
number.  The third is ordered highest to lowest by the  annual incidence.
     The first half of the overall plant summary  deals  with the risk to the
maximum concentration.  The first column reports  the maximum concentration to
which a person is predicted to be exposed.   The second column reports  the
number of people predicted to bp exposed to that  concentration.  The third
column reports the exposure (people x concentration) due to that concentration.
The fourth column reports the predicted lifetime  incidence (exposure x  unit
                                    2-45

-------
      Figure 2-12.   Cummulative Summary
 SUMMARY FOR IRON AND STEEL
MAXIMUM RADIUS ป   50.0 KM
LEVEL  CONCENTRATION   POPULATION
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
 10
 11
 12
 13

 15
 16
EXPOSURE
1.64E-03
l.OOE-03
5.00E-04
2.50E-04
l.OOE-04
5.00E-05
2.50E-05
l.OOE-05
5.00E-06
2.50E-06
l.OOE-06
5.00E-07
2.SOE-07
1.006-07
s.ooE-oa
4.61E-03
7
32
422
7,230
66,700
240,000
733.000
2,310,000
9.000,000
22,500,000
23.000,000
31,500,000
33,500,000
33,600,000
33,600,000
33,600,000
1.19E-02
4.24E-02
3.17E-01
2.72Eป00
i.ioE+oi
2.27Eป01
3.95Eป01
7.00E*01
1.04E<>02
1.57E*02
1.67E+02
1.70E+02
1.706*02
1.70E*02
1.70Et02
                       2-46

-------
           _
           19
 (T3

-C
C_3
OO
 i.
 CJ
ro
f—H
 I
C\J


 O)
 s_
 a
 en
                      Z            o: g    ^_ a    K

                            ^    iu " 2    z -j    *
                      S 5 —•    tt S _ 5

                      ฃ *"  .vi-^S^iut    D!
                      <  . uj z  y    tr  -  O    O
                      ^ ^ 3  *k  ^ i/jj ^^ ^ y U    U
                      i: < u ^  — uj    5 <
                      uu.ซa:in>-    03 a -J    >>

                      2 = S'"ซinlJ5w!u-o


              u      -J       o  iu J Si o en ^ 55 S



              8  ,    5! fi S uj    uj > iu 5 o o "

              3      s     - —  iuino:>-Dc.OQ:

              _      sปซ-j_o:rz_S   . _ 5
              O      Iu ^J Q    UJ W ^    ^"* ^J O
                      j CQ >^ ^4  ^ ^ ^" CL    ff U U
                      = S u -j    >- ซ zi >- uj in a.
              n      ป- c. 5 
-------
risk) due to the maximum concentration.   The fifth column is one of the values
EPA uses to report risk.  This is the maximum individual  lifetime risk and
is calculated by multiplying the maximum concentration by the unit risk number.
     The next part of the summary deals  with the minimum and overall  concentra-
tions and exposures.  The first column of this half (the sixth column overall)
reports the minimum predicted concentration within 50Km of the plant.  The
next column reports the total number of  people exposed to any concentration of
the chemical within 50Km of the plant.  The next column reports the cummulative
exposure.  This is calculated by summing the exposure from each modeled receptor
site.   The next column reports annual incidence and is calculated by multiplying
the cutnmulative exposure by the unit risk number which yields lifetime risk and
dividing by seventy (the estimated life  span) to yield an average annual  incidence,
This number is also frequently used to describe risk.  The next column,
labeled repeat interval, is simply the inverse of the annual incidence column.
This is used to describe how many years  elapse before one death is predicted
to occur.  The last column reports the source name.
                                    2-48

-------
                                 Chaoter 3
3-1.  Introduction to SHEAR
     The Systems Applications Human Expsoure and Risk (SHEAR) model  is
based on code and concepts developed in SHED.   In contrast to SHED,  which
was developed for a national  estimation of risk, SHEAR was developed for
regional analysis.  SHEAR is  also more complicated to run as it has  more
options and input files than  does SHED.
     There are four basic instances where SHEAR should be used:  1)  If
there are two major point sources very close (within 5 km) to each other
and the additive concentration needs to be determined, 2) multiple pollutants
from one source need to be analyzed, 3) there  are a large number of  sources
within an area which cannot feasibly be located individually, or 4)  when the
sources are so numerous and widespread that they act as an area source
rather than several point sources.  In the first instance, SHEAR holds the
population constant within the study area and  sums the risk.  So, if a
person were exposed to a concentration X from  source A and a concentration
Y from source B, SHEAR would  report a single person exposed to a concentration
(X+Y).  In contrast, SHED would report 2 people, one exposed to concentration
X and the other to concentration Y.  Both models yield the same exposure
results but SHED double counts some of the people.  Unfortunately, the same
mechanise which allows SHEAR  to prevent double counting often causes the
model to underpredict the maximum lifetime risk.  Even though SHEAR  sums
the risk, it only sums these  risks at population centroids.  This eliminates
the area closer to the plant  where people actually may be residing and
where the concentrations are  much higher.  For this reason, SHED, which
spreads the population out, almost always predicts a higher maximum  lifetime
risk than SHEAR.  Hence, SHEAR is generally not used to determine maximum
lifetime risk.
                                    3-1

-------
     In the second instance,  SHEAR merely allows many chemicals to be run
at once.  The same results could be obtained manually with SHED by adding
results of each run.   SHEAR automates this procedure and,  again, holds the
population constant.
     The last two instances in which SHEAR would be used provide a means  of
        i '
analyses not available through SHED.  SHEAR allows modeling of sources too
numerous to model individually through its prototype and area source .models.
Therefore, such sources as service stations, dry cleaners, etc. are more
appropriately modeled with SHEAR rather than SHEO.
     In addition, SHEAR allows areas to be specified within the study
region.  For instance, you can define each neighborhood in a county in
order to model residential emissions for that county, rather including
downtown areas, farmland and lakes.  These capabilities make SHEAR a very
useful  model for sources which cannot be modeled with SHEO.
3-2.  Input Data
     SHEAR requires several pieces of information in order to run properly.
     Although SHEAR requires somewhat different input data than SHED, the
information still falls into the four major categories:
                > Location Data
                > Emissions Data
                > Vent Parameter Data
                > Atmospheric Reactivities
     In addition, SHEAR requires input of the STAR station code number to
identify which meteorological data should be used.  The following section
describes the input information needed for SHEAR and possible sources of
this information.  Much of this additional information can be derived from
the same sources as those indicated in Section 2-2.  In those instances,
                                    3-2

-------
the appropriate earlier section will  be referenced.   Placement of the data .
Into the various files for use by the SHEAR program  is  discussed in Section
3-5.
     As in SHED, SHEAR requires input of the unit risk  estimate to link  the
exposure to health risk.   These estimates for cancer risk  are generally
generated by the Carcinogen Assessment Group in a Health Assessment Document
for the chemical.  A unit risk estimate is the estimated risk to an Individual
of contracting cancer if the individual Is exposed to one  ug/rn^ of the
chemical for their entire lifetime.   Hence it is expressed in units of
(ug/m3)-l.  if the unit risk is not included, the concentrations and exposure
results are calculated with no calculations of health risk.   Insertion of  zero
for the unit risk will prevent the program from running properly.   So, insert
one or leave blank if the unit risk is unknown.
Location Data
     The location data for the major point source portion  of SHEAR can be
determined by the means discussed in Section 2-2.  It is important with
SHEAR, as with SHED, to locate the plants accurately, as the additive
concentrations will  not be representative of the actual  situation.
     The location of area and prototype sources is different from major
point sources.  These sources are not located specifically,  but a box is
defined around them.  First, you must determine the  general  area you wish
to study.  (The area should be about the size of a county  or a few counties.)
Then you must determine the specific coordinates of  the southwest corner of
the box and the length and width of the box.  This information can be
determined from:
     > United States Geological Survey maps (7 1/2 and  15  minute series).
     > U.S. atlas which has county breakdowns in state  maps.
                                    3-3

-------
The southwest corner must be in UTM coordinates.   To translate geodetic
coordinates to UTM use the program described in Appendix B.
     Often you will wish to model  only a specific county(s)  or part of a
county(s) within the box.  The program has the areas of all  the counties in
the U.S. defined.  You still must box in the county and define the grid
cells but if you enter the Federal Information Processing System (FIPS)
        ( '
code of the county(s), only the area both inside the county  and inside the
box will be modeled.  The FIPS codes for the counties can be obtained from
the most recent copy of Worldwide Geographic Location Codes  produced by the
U.S. General Service Administration, Office of Finance or from the National
Bureau of Standards FIPS Publication 55.
Emissions Data
     Again, for major point sources, the emissions data can  be obtained as
discussed in Section 2-2.
     The emissions data for prototype sources can also be obtained by using
methods in Section 2-2.  The emission rate used, however, should be an
average or prototypical emission rate because all sources will be modeled
to emit at the same rate.
     The area emission rate may be obtained from a number of published
sources which include:
     >  Statistical Abstracts of the United States.
     >  Chemical Engineering Progress and other journals.
     >  Government  publications of emissions and/or material  consumption.
     From these, the emission  rate may determine as emissions/area or
emissions/person.  Consumption rates can yield emission rates if an emission
factor  is applied  as earlier discussed.
Vent Parameter Data
     Vent  parameter data  are necessary for  the major point and prototype
dispersion  modeling.   These data  can be obtained in the manner discussed in
                                     3-4

-------
section 2-2.   The parameters include the number of vents,  vent height,  vent dia-
meter, gas discharge temperature, gas velocity, fugitive discharge area and build-
ing cross-sectional  area.   The area source analysis does not require these data.
Atmospheric Reactivities
     At^resent, chemical  reactivity input is not available with the SHEAR
model.  Although the card  is structured to accept the data input, a separate
runstream initiating the program to use the data has not been implemented.
The need has not yet risen to develop this portion of the  program because
very few chemicals are reactive enough to demonstrate changes within the
50 km radius.
Meteorological Data
     Unlike SHED, SHEAR requires input of the desired STAR station code
number.  The station selected should normally be the station closest to the
region currently being analyzed.  A more remote station can be selected
if it is judged that its climate is more representative of conditions in
the analysis region.  This might occur because of the relative oroximity of
the region and each weather station to coastlines or major topographical
features.  Selection of a  station other than the closest should be made only
upon expert advice.   (See  Section 1-2 for additional  information.)
     To obtain STAR station code numbers for the area of interest, a program
available on UNIVAC may be used.  This program is called STAR-PICK and  is
described in detail  in Appendix A.
3-3.  Dispersion Modeling
     This section describes the algorithms used to process the input data
into the resulting exposures to populations.  Each of the  three types of
sources, major point, prototype and area, must be discussed individually as
each uses its own method to reach the end result.
                                    3-5

-------
Major Point Source
     The major point source for SHEAR is analyzed almost exactly the same
as for SHED (see Section 2-3).   Therefore, the complete discussion will  not
be repeated here.  Two differences exist between the SHEAR point source and
the SHED point source.  First,  the two-level  scheme adopted by SHED for
        i '
pairing concentrations to populations is not used in SHEAR.  SHEAR uses the
method of interpolating the concentration receptors to the BG/EDs from the
source out to the maximum radius.  This is the same method SHED uses outside
the 3.5 km radius.  Secondly, SHEAR is capable of storing all the con-
centrations and their locations.  In the event that another plant emits the
pollutant within the same area, the new concentrations at each location
(BG/ED centroid) will be added  to the stored concentrations at that same
location.  SHEAR handles exposure to several  chemicals from the same plant
in a similar manner.  SHED does not have this capability.

Prototype Sources
     Prototype sources are treated exactly as specific point sources except
for an algorithm for selecting  sites for the required samples of each
prototype.  PROTO code is the POINT code with the addition of the siting
algorithm and the provision of  a single source characterization (the
prototype) to be used for every source that is sited.
     The siting algorithm provides for a random selection of L centroids
where L is the number of locations to be selected.  If it is desired that
some sites serve multiple samples—as, for example, a fraction of gasoline
service stations are sited in pairs, triplets, etc.—then the number of
locations is determined by L  =  S + 2(0) + 3(T) + 4(Q):
                                    3-6

-------
where
     L = number of locations,
     S = number of singles (single source),
     D = number of doubles (two sources),
     T = number of triplets (group of three sources),
        i '
     Q = number of quadruplets (group of four sources)
     The actual sites are placed at randomly perturbed locations with.in
each selected district.  That is, each site location is at the population
centroid map coordinates + (-) a random fraction of the district mean
radius to the east (west) + (-) a random fraction to the north (south).
     This procedure approximately distributes sources by population density.
However, there is a rural/urban bias to ^G/ED population because some rural
BG/EOs can be very small; urban 3G/EOs almost never are.  This bias would
tend to over-represent rural  districts since the small rural  BG/EOs would
have an equal probability of being selected; a counter-bias is provided
whereby BG/EOs of less than 1,000 population are randomly rejected and
replaced with another selection.

Area Source Analysis
     The area source is used for those sources which cannot be specified in
detail.  Such emissions must be inferred by relating them to oopulation,
motor vehicles, etc.  For these sources, it is necessary to use a simple
dispersion algorithm to estimate concentration patterns.  The Gifford urban
area dispersion algorithm (Hanna and Gifford, 1973) has proved to be a
simple but physically realistic model capable of estimating atmospheric
                                    3-7

-------
pollutant concentrations caused by area source emissions in cities.  The

basic Hanna-Gifford Equation is qiven as:


                          X = COo/U   ,


where X is the air pollutant concentration, QQ is the effective emissions

rate per unit area, and U is the wind speed.  The parameter C,  qenerally
       i '
referred to as the Gifford coefficient, is a weak function of the city

size; it mav be taken to be approximately constant.  Theoretically, the

parameter C is qiven by:


             C = (?) 1/J? . xl-b/[a(l - bH-1   ,

where X is the distance from a receptor point to the upwind edge of the


area source.  The constants a and b are defined bv the vertical  atmospheric

diffusion length,  0*2 = axb.  Values of a and b for different  atmospheric

dispersion conditions have been discussed by Pasqu-HI (1970, 1Q71).  The


parameter C can be estimated for various combinations of the stability

factors a and b and by assuming that x enuals *alf the city size (Hanna,

1978).  For example, 213 would be an aporonrlate value of C for a city with

a land area of 400 km2 under Pasquill Class D stability (while  a = 0.15 and

b * 0.75).  Specific values of the parameter C h?ve been emo*recallv

estimated bv Hanna and Gifford (1973) for a large number of 'J.S. cities

based on a larqe quantity of air quality data, averaoe annua1 emissions,

and meteoroloqical conditions.  The mean value of C has been found to equal

225, with a standard deviation rounhlv half that magnitude.  This value of

the parameter C has been recommended for use in evaluatinq an area source

by the EPA (1977a, b) if removal and decay orocesses "ปav hฎ neolected.

Estimates of the parameter C were calculated bv usino Equation  11 and bv
                                    3-3

-------
assuming Pasquill  Class D stability as the average long-term meteorological
condition.
     The application of the Gifford approach within SHEAR has been modified
to provide variation of atmospheric concentration across a modeling region
in proportion to the local  emission rate per unit area.  This approach
provides a higher degree of resolution of concentration patterns than does
the single urban box approach, but does not address the details of pollutant
advection and dispersion that are treated by grid dispersion models.
     In the present approach, box model (Gifford model) dispersion results
are simply scaled at each 8G/ED by the ratio of the density of emissions
per surface area at the 8G/ED to the regional  mean emission density.
     Options in the AREA code provide for varying or non-varying (from
district to district) emission rates.  Emissions that vary with BG/EO are
scaled by the population density of the BG/ED.  This is to address pollutant
emitting activities that uniform fractions of  the population are expected
to be engaged in at any given time.  Examples  of such activities are motor
vehicle usage and operation of home furnaces.
     Either uniform or nonuniform emission rates may be restricted to
specified portion of the modeling region.  This feature is provided so that
the user may address such source types as crop spraying, tillage dust, area
burning, or other activities for which specified areas may be identified.
     Equation 11 shows that the concentration  is inversely proportional  to
the wind speed.  In SHEAR,  each wind speed in  the STAR set is used.  The
STAR matrix is summed over wind direction and  stability class to give the
frequency of occurrence of each speed.  The concentration is computed as
the sum of the frequency-weighted concentrations for each wind speed.
                                    3-9

-------
3-4.  Assumptions
     Similar to SHED,  SHEAR makes certain assumptions  in  order to  run  with
limited data.   This section describes the necessary  assumptions to provide
the user with  an understanding of the limitations  of SHEAR  and the need to
consider .such  limitations in the use of the output data.  The assumptions
for SHEAR include both those listed here and those covered  in Section  2-4.
     The SHEAR model  uses census data to the BG/ED level.   Although this is
the smallest defined population unit, it still  places  approximately 800
people at one  point.   This is not a realistic depiction of  their residence.
Some of the people may actually be located closer  to the  plant and receive
greater exposure than modeled or vice versa.  Unlike SHED,  this is especially
true closer into the plant.  Where SHED spreads the  population out to  all
the concentration points within the 3.5 km range,  SHEAR simply uses the
interpolation  method (which SHED uses from 3.5 - 50  km radius) for all
distances from the source so that all exposure occurs  only  at the  population
centroid.  This can result in concentration receptors  close to the plant
being ignored because no people are assigned to them,  even  though  people
counted in a nearby population centroid may actually be living in  such
areas.  This would result in an under estimation of  the maximum concentration
to which people are exposed.  Thus, even though the  major point source portion
of SHEAR can add concentrations from several plants  and risks of different
chemicals, the modeled maximum risk may not be as  high as that modeled by
SHED.  One advantage of the SHEAR methodology for  using the interpolation
of concentration to people rather than people to concentration, is that
this method never locates people over large bodies of  water, provided
population centroids are not so located (a circumstance the Census Bureau
strives  to avoid).
                                    3-10

-------
     The prototype algorithm of SHEAR with the random location of sources
obviously cannot be assumed to correctly represent the actual source locations.
The results of the prototype model depend strongly on the population density
of the county being modeled.
     The area source model requires more fundamental  assumptions concerning
population and concentrations than do the other two types of sources.  Unless
the area is well known and defined, portions of the study area such as parks
or lakes which contain no sources may be included into the area over which
the emissions are spread.  Since area is contained in the denominator of
the Hanna Gifford Equation, the resulting concentration may be somewhat
lower than the actual.  In addition, unless rural  areas are deleted from
models of urban sources, people in the rural area who may not be exposed to
the pollutant will be included with those exposed.  This model should be
used only to deternine a rough estimate of what public exposure might be,
unless the study is restricted to urban areas.

3-5.  Using the SHEAR Model
     The SHEAR model is more complex to run than the SHEO model.   It is
designed to handle the various modeling techniques (area, prototype and
point), as well as, multiple chemicals.  This flexibility requires the use
of several files and each file has its own format.  Some of the data entered
in each file may seem redundant but must be entered in order for the
program to identify the appropriate files and to execute properly.
     The number of files and neans of accessing the appropriate files
requires a brief explanation of how files are identified before you can
effectively use SHEAR.  In order for a file to be identified, the qualifier
and the filename must be provided.  If you type only  the filename, the
                                    3-11

-------
project ID is assumed as the qualifier.  If you type *filename, the program
searches for the last @QUAL statement.  That statement becomes the qualifier.
If no @QUAL exists, the project ID again becomes the default.  If these
methods cannot define the appropriate file, you must type qualifier*filename
to identify the file.
                             *       *        *
       NOTE:  For all the instructions below, all information within
              commands which are specific to your file or run will be
              typed in small letters and contained in parentheses.  For
              example, (a<3CONS RC (run id) means type (a@CONS RC 08PT if
              08PT is the run id of the run you needed to check.   Do_
              not type the parentheses.
                             *       *        *
     SHEAR groups its files into two categories; area specific and chemical
specific.  This allows several chemicals to be analyzed for the same study
area, using the same study area file.  Both groups of files must  be cataloged
before entering the data.
     To name the area specific files, type:
                       0QUAL  (Study Area)
     The study area name may be any alpha numeric name with 1-12 characters.
This name  is now the qualifier for all the area specific files.  To catalog
the files  type:
                       @ADD SASD*HEP-RUN.SHEAR-CAT/NON-QUALED
     Several lines of symbols will be printed when you push XMIT.  When the
computer  responds with "READY" the area specific files are cataloged.  You
may enter  data now or catalog the second group of files.
     To name the chemical specific files, type:
                       (3QUAL  (Chemical Name)
                                     3-12

-------
     The chemical name may be any alpha numeric name with 1-12 characters.
This chemical name is now the qualifier for all the chemical specific
files.  To catalog these files type:
                       0ADD  SASD*HEP-RUN.SHEAR-CAT/OUALED
     Again, the computer will print several lines of symbols until it responds
with "READY."  At this point the chemical  specific files are cataloged and
        t *
you are ready to enter data.
Entering the Data
     You are now ready to enter data into each data file.  To do this, some
sort of text editor must be called.  Several text editors are avilable but
for this example, we will use the Maryland text editor.  Specific editing
commands for the Maryland editor are available in Hagerty and Sibbald's
"Text Editor User's Guide."  A few commands are also provided in Appendix C
of this manual.
     The first file to be entered is an area specific file which identifies
to the program the name of the chemical-specific files.  This is the only
area-specific file which must be changed when running an additional  chemical
with the same study area.
     To open the file type:
                       3EOM {Study-Area)*QUAL.
     Enter the following information:
                       0QUAL (Chemical  Name)
     In order to have the output printout alligned correctly, the format
should follow figure 3-1.
     To open the first data file type:
     9EDM  (Studyarea)*SHR-XTRACT.
The data you enter into this file defines the area of the country which
will be modeled.  Each line of data, referred to as a card, has a specific
                                    3-13

-------
LU
o


CL


O

t^
o

u?
_ ซ*
13 *"
cc
a: i
LU i
IZ. u>
or.
cc ซ
0 =
u_ =
Qi 1
GC E
ฐ S
(X
a: ^
ZD i
[ i w
ae
UJ
a
h^
X






-
-
2
i






                                                                                 0)

                                                                                 3
                                    3-14

-------
function and format.  If data Is not entered in the correct columns and
rows, the data will  be misinterpreted by the program.   Therefore,  you should
enter the data exactly as described below (see also Figure 3-2):

Card 1, Columns 1-80 = An identifying name of the region,  to be selected by
       '  '              user.  This name is used in subsequent outnut headings
                       generated by any module using this  data.  The name may
                       be up to 80 alpha characters.
Card 2, Columns 1-10 = The UTM easting of the SW corner of a rectangle
                       sufficiently large to include the desired  modeling
                       region.  UTM coordinates are expressed in  meters on all
                       USG maps.  The 7 1/2- and 15-minute series  .naps are
                       likely to be most appropriate sources of this data.
                       Because UTM coordinates are  numerically large,
                       trailing zeros may be suppressed on some map displays.
                       Care should be taken to acquire and input  coordinates
                       in kilometers.  Up to 10 digits are allowed.
                     = The UTM northing of the SW corner referred to above.
                     - The UT"1 zone number.  Since UTM coordinates are plane
                       approximations to a spherical surface, they are
                       defined for zones, each of which is limited in size
                       to limit the approximation error.  UGS maps note zones
                       used.  Coordinates are entered as up to 5-digit
                       integers.
                     = The size of cell to be used in Cartesian grid resolution
                       of 3G/ED areas.  Small cells lead to fine  resolution on
                       the plotter, but, since actual  3G/EO perimeters are
                                    3-15
Columns 10-20
Columns 21-25
Columns 26-34

-------
LJ
CC
or

-------
                       not known,  finer resolution  does  not  necessarily
                       produce  more  accurate  definition  of 3G/ED  areas.
                       Hence, larger grid  cells  produce  the  same  risk  results
                       as small  grid cells but  the  smaller cells  produce
                       better plotted output.   Larger cells  also  require
                       less computer time  to  run.   The number of  grid  cells
                       used may  be limited by available  space or  computing
                       time on  the computer used.   This  XTRACT code limits
                       the grid  to 10,000  cells.  This limitation may  be
                       changed  at  the user's  discretion  by recompiling the
                       programs.   The cells will be square,  so this datum
                       serves as both as X and  a Y  cell  dimension.
Columns 35-40        = The number  of grid  cells  desired  in the X  (E-W)
                       direction.
Columns 41-45        = The number  of grid  cells  desired  in the Y  (N-S)
                       direction.
Card 3, Columns 1-4  = The year for  which  population is  desired (used  for
                       extrapolation from  1980).
Columns 5-9          = The number  of counties for which  the  populations is
                       desired,  (optional)
Card 4, Columns 15   = The FIPS  codes of the  counties to be  selected.  The
                       number of codes listed must  be the same number  of
                       counties  stated in  Card  3.   (optional)  If this option
                       is exercised, the analysis will be restricted to the
                       county(s) specified.  The study area  then consists
                       of the portions of  the specified  counties  that  are
                       within  the  box defined above.
                                    3-17

-------
Card 5               = The region within the defined analysis  area  to
                       be excluded from the analysis (optional).  The
                       region Is defined in the card by  the minimum
                       and maximum rows (y  coordinates)  of  any cluster
                       of cells to be deleted followed by  the  minimum
                       and maximum columns  (x coordinates)  in  each
                       affected row,  in sequence.   Coordinates are   .
                       expressed in units of cell  number (five digits).
                       Cell number (1, 1) 1s the lower left corner  of
                       the defined rectangle.  (See Figure  3-3.)
     This is all the data needed for the XTRACT file.  The  next data  file
requires information concerning the weather (STAR)  data.  To open the file
type:
     @EOM (chenical)*SHR-STAR.
     The data should then be entered in the following format (see also
Figure 3-4):
Card 1, Columns 1-80 = The name of the chemical addressed  in the present run.
                       This is to be used in subsequent  headings.
Card 2, Columns 1-10 = The hazard factor (unit risk) for the chemical,  if
                       available.  This is  required if hazard  or risk or other
                       multi-species computations are desired. The factor  has
                       units of cases (of health effect) per person.ug/m3.year.
                       Hazard factors are based on extensive analysis of
                       clinical and/or epidemic toxicology.
Card  3, Column  1     = \ flag, zero or one, to indicate  if  rural  (1)  or urban
                       (0) dispersion conditions prevail.   This flag should be
                                    3-18

-------
CT
a:

x
 i
cc:
X
0-3
or
O
 .


•


.
-
j







i























i

;
1
:
'
.
:
:


•


:








-















*







:
••
..
~
.

:

3
1
*


•


•





j
4

J















ซ
ซ








3
.
i
-

•
~.
•
\
;


•


•





j


J















j







"
:
:

.
:
]



'


•






I'

























\
'•
-
1
'
^


3
•
:
•














-















j






i
:
I
j
-
J

i
.
ซ
\
.


•


•








j















:







I
;
-
-
1
1
:
-
:
:

"
•
1

;








•
4 3
3 3
4 J
1 ^
4 .
4 .
3 :
3
1 T

3
j :
3 :


-


3

. 1
1 1
,
j
4 -
4 i
1* •

M
H
ii
Ii


-
1
. i
i j



3 3

. 4
. 3
j
J J
i
3
3 :

4 .




4 4
1

*


i j
1 1

1
1
J
^ 1

^ m
^
4 t
•^ ^
-1 -i

4 4
n
1 3
H
i
1
- 4
1

i ]
4 4
3 3
3 3
3 3

4 j
3 3
3 3

3
- 4 - .
• 4 • -

4| 1 4 •

i '. i i




: : 3 :
--13


: M
44-

' J 4
334-
444-
333.

J j J
- 4 4 -
4 4 - -
4, 1 - 1
4333

4 4 4 J
-\ * 4 1
Hil
4^44
4 1 4 .
4, - " -t

4 ' j
i J
111
4*4.
Hn
, _ _ _
1333
3 3 3 3
43^3

j 4 4 4
3333
4333
i 3 3 3
                                                                                                  OJ
                                                3-19

-------
cr
ex

CO
                                              3S
LT3

Qฃ
CC
cx
         a
         I
;  J
!  4
                M
4  .? '.•
4  ฃS
                              -S  '
                                                   1  SS
                                                      u9ซo a
                                                      ^jtej ซ*j
                                                      33 ง

                                                      —— X
                                                      —a ""
                                                  B  11
                                                                     I a X

                                                                                                           1
                                                                                                         CO
                                                                                                          01
                                                                                                          3
                                                                                                          O
                                                                      %

                                                                      *s
                                                     3-20

-------
Columns 11-15
Columns 21-27,
Columns 31-36 and
Columns 41-56
set by a person familiar with EPA dispersion modeling
practices.
The station number of the United States Weather Service
reporting station from which STAR dispersion data is
desired for the present run.  The station selected
will normally be the station closest to the region
currrently being analyzed.  A more remote station
might be selected if it is judged that its climate
is more representative of conditions in the analysis
region.  This might occur because of the relative
proximity of the region and each weather station to
coast lines or major topographic features.  Selection
of a station other than the closest should be only
upon expert advice.  (See Section 1-2)


Specification of portions of the selected STAR data matrix
to be deleted.  The STAR matrix consists of a three-
dimensional array.  The array variables are wind speed,
direction, and atmospheric stability.   The set of
standard values of one or more of these variables
may be diminished if it is assuned that correlations
between source operation and occurrence of meteorological
conditions are such that the emissions and the variable
values are mutually exclusive.  This data should only
be entered upon expert advice.  These data entries
are in flag style (zeros and ones).  Each parameter
is addressed by a string of flags, one for each
             3-21

-------
                       standard value,  In sequence.   There  are  six wind  speeds,
                       so there is  a  string  of  six  flags  for  this parameter;
                       there are seven  stabilities  and  16 directions with
                       corresponding  flag strings.   If  these  columns are left
                       blank, all  of  the STAR data  is used.
       t  '
Card 4, Columns 1-40 = Anbient temperature (in  ฐK)  and  lapse  rate (in  ฐK/m).
                       Since the computation is an  annual average computation,
                       only representative values can be  used.   Depending  on the
                       application, mean or  extreme values  might be used.   If
                       these cards  are  left blank,  default  values are  used.
                       It is important, however, that a blank card actually
                       be inserted here.  One way to do this  is to type:
                           I Y    (WIT)
                             C / Y  /   /    (XMIT)
                       This will insert a blank card.
     This completes the STAR data.   The next set of commands  demonstrates
what to enter for point, prototype and  area sources. For major point
source model, enter the following (see  also Figure  3-5):
     0EDM (chemical)*SHR-POINT.
The data to be entered for this file is very similar to that  entered  for
SHED with a few exceptions.  In fact, a SHED file can be  added  and edited  to
create this file.  The three cards should be entered for  each plant  and
each chemical.  The data is entered in  the following format:

Card 1, Columns 1-80 = The facility identification  in alpha numeric  characters.
Card 2, Columns 1-6  = Latitude of the facility in  degrees, minutes  and
                       seconds.
                                    3-22

-------
     o
     or
     d_
      I
     or
     X
     CO
      X
     o
     Q_
      l
     cc
o
OS
o
Q.
so ism | SOIODJ
it
fS
*> 1*
H. J
a a
ฃ 3
V
K M
งs
i

tONCHunt
Din HIH Sfi
ll
Ml
1;
5S
i^—
^
.
"
•
"
:
.
.
-
•
"
"
;
•
"

fe-
- _
—
a **
_ ill
> ฃ
OIK
KlILBS


57
i;
Is

M


— u
C X
--
^
-

-

-


.
-
•
-

•


"

^
-
••
-


.
.

.
-
m
•

.


"

m
-
•
•

-












m
-
•
-

•
;

-
q
•
-

.
i

*






-
:

.
:
•
•

.


•


5
^
-

3
2
^



a.
u
c
ป
i
3
0


w
                                                                        ES
                                                                                                    ID
                                                                                                     I
                                                                                                    PO

                                                                                                     OJ
                                                                                                     L.
                                                                                                     3
                                                         "  "  "  "  ^ Z(—flC —CJ
                                                                    J ZUOOd
                                                     3-23

-------
Columns 2-13
Columns 14-17
Columns 18-21
Columns 7-13         = Longitude of the facility in degrees,  minutes and
                       seconds.
     (This is all  that is entered in Card 2 for major point sources)
Card 3, Column 1     = Indicator as the emission type.
                       P = process vent; S * storage vent
                       F = fugitive emissions;  H = stack
                     = Emission  rate in Kg/year including decimal  point.
                     = Stack or  vent height in  meters with decimal  point.
                     = Building  (of vent or stack) cross  sectional  area
                       (M^) perpendicular to the mean wind flow,  including
                       demical  point.
                     = Indicator as to vent type.
                       0 = vertical stack, 1 =  nonvertical stack  or vent.
                     = Inside stack or vent diameter in meters,  including
                       decimal  point.
                     = Gas exit velocity from vent or stack in m/sec
                       including decimal point.
                     - Gas exit temperature in  degrees K  including decimal
                       point.
     In order to use the prototype portion of the SHEAR model  you must open
the following file:
     9EOM    (chemical)*SHR-PROTO.
     The data entered for the prototype source is identical to the data
entered for  the major point source described above except for Card 2.  This
card should  be  filled out exactly as follows (see also Figure 3-5):
Card 2, Columns 1-39      = Blank
                                    3-24
Column 22
Columns 23-26
Columns 27-31
Columns 32-35

-------
Columns 40-44             = The number of prototype sources to be located
                            within the specified area.
Columns 45-49             = The number of sources which will  not be located
                            in the same cell  as another prototype (protosingle).
Columns 50-54             = The number of times that sources  which will  be
       i  '
                            colocated with only one other prototype.
Columns 55-59             = The number of times three prototype sources
                            will  be colocated.
Columns 60-64             = The number of times four prototype sources will
                            be colocated.
     (The sum of columns 45-49 plus 2X columns  50-54 plus 3X  columns  55-59
     plus 4X columns 60-64 must equal the number entered in columns 40-44.)
     In order to use the area source portion  of the SHEAR program type in the
following:
     @EDM  (chemical )*SHR-AREA.
     The data should be entered into this file  as indicated below (see also
Figure 3-6):
Card 1, Columns 1-30      = The area source identification name.
Card 2, Columns 1-10      = The emission rate per year  per unit population
                            or per square kilometer.  The units are Kg/yr.
Columns 11-20             = The number of people which  you use as the unit
                            population above.  If this  number is  zero, the
                            model  assumes the emission  rate to be Kg/yr/Km2.
Card 3, Columns 1-5       = Indicator as to whether the whole area is to be
                            used or whether additional  areas  are  to be
                            added or subtracted.  If the number of areas
                            is positive, then the areas are included; if
                                    3-25

-------
cr


cr
      K

      U4

      ง
                            3
                            u
ce

aJ
a
a

LU
                   sm
' ct

 &
      v>vป
      ZX
      uu
      oo

      It A
                     ss
cr
      ฃ  S
             ^ w

             I!
                                       =
ccc  x

III  I

s sis  I
QCBOE  —
aฃซa
scs  ซ
ill  o
-^  S

• •
c




*
K


K


.


-



-
.


-
-

:


;



•
•

j
i
-

.






.
.
'.




•

.


•



•
i
•
•

.
,


i


-



4
1


:
-
:
-

                                                                           U3
                                                                           I
                                                                           cn

                                                                           
-------
Card 4, Columns 1-40
                            negative, the areas are excluded and if the
                            number of areas is zero, the whole area is used.
                          = These cards define the area to be included or
                            excluded from the defined analysis region
                            (optional).  The area is defined by the minimum
        i "
                            and maximum UTM x coordinates (10 digits each
                            in kilometers) and- the minimum and maximum y
                            coordinates (10 digits each in kilometers).
                            This could be used to look at only crop areas
                            in a county (inclusion) or deleting a  city park
                            from the analysis area (exclusion).
     The last data file, called the Summarization Data File, must  be filled
out for any SHEAR run.   This file enters the unit risk number for  the final
calculation.  To open this file type:
     (3EDM  (studyarea)*SHR-REPORT.
Enter the data as follows (see also Figure 3-7):
Card 1, Columns 1-80      = Enter the chemical  name as previously  entered.
Card 2, Columns 1-10      = Unit risk number for  lifetime risk.
Columns 11-42             = Filename,  (chemical  name*CONC-FILE.)
Cards 1 and 2 should be filled out for each chemical  to be analyzed.   This
allows separate reports to be printed for each chemical when running multiple
chemicals.
     Figures 3-1 through 3-7 gives a summary of the data to be entered for
each file described above.  It is strongly recommended that these  summary
sheets be used when entering data into the data files.
                                    3-27

-------
cc
o
Q_
                                                                                           
-------
Running the Program
     Once the files have been filled as described above, the program is
ready to run.  Unlike SHED, you have entered data into data files not
program files.  Therefore, the files are ready to use by the model and do
not need to be copied.
     Also unlike SHED, SHEAR has several options for being run.  The
       i '
following set of commands demonstrate a good way to run the prototype and
area sources.  To begin, type:
     QSTART  START.SHR-PROTO-A,/(Site id),,.(Filename)
     Once the program has finished running for prototype sources, you must
empty the XTRACT file of all concentrations.  This is accomplished by entering:
     0Copy (Filename)*86ED-FlLE., (Filename)*CONC-FIi_E.
This allows the program to use the data derived from EXTRACT without
rerunning that portion of the program.  It also blanks out the prototype
data to prevent its addition to any subsequent runs.
     To run area sources, type:
     0START  START.SHR-AREA,/(Site id),,,(Filename)
     If you want to run area first, just substitute the word "area"  for
"proto" and vice versa.  The same applies to point source.
     Two points are important to remember:
     1.  The "-A" as typed in the first start command is only used in the
start command for the first run of a chemical.  (The "A" initiates the
XTRACT portion of the program which is not necessary to run again.)
     2.  Before making the next run, you must always empty the CONC.  file
using the @copy command described above.
     This method of running the program keeps the analyses separate.   If
you wish to know the cumulative risk from thee point prototype and area
sources, simply omit the step in which you  empty the cone.  file.
                                    3-29

-------
     Users who would like the results of the SHEAR run to go to their PC  or
user ID rather than be printed at the Mutual  Building or other dedicated
UNIVAC printer should replace the letters SHR in the start card with  USR.
Do not replace SHR with USR in the filenames.  The file will  then not print
out until requested.  Please see instructions in section 2-5 to obtain
results(at your PC.  To receive a laser printout at the Research Triangle
Park replace SHR with LAZ.
Plotting SHEAR Data
     Each time SHEAR is run by the commands listed earlier,  a plot of the
study area is sent to the CALCOMP plotter.   These plots include:   1)  the
8G/ED locations in the region analyzed, 2)  the population density, 3) trie
locations of the sources, and 4) the concentrations around each source.
These plots are large and use various colors to depict the variable plotted.
     The TEKTROMICS plotter could also be used for the SHEAR output.   This
produces 8 1/2 x 11 plots that are not color.  To send the SHEAR output to
the TEKTRONICS plotter rather the calcomp plotter, type /TEK after the
point, proto or area portion of the start command.  To run a stripped down
version  (no legends) of the output, type/TEK-B in the same place.  These
commands are shown in Appendix 0 to demonstrate all the variations (e.g.,
different radial distances).
     The specifications for the plots described above are initiated by the
run stream and can only be changed by a programmer who is familiar with the
Executive Control  Language (ECU.  The format for the information is  shown
in the top portion of Figure 3-8.  Additional legends, however, can be
added  to  the plot  by the general user.  This format is shown in the bottom
portion of Figure  3-8 and is described below:
     Columns 1-13      = location of legend in UTM coordinates (e.g., source
                         locations that you need to label.
                                    3-30

-------
Di
(X
or
o

-------
     Columns 14-17     = symbol  number (see Appendix E).
     Column 18         = color  of symbol.   1 = black, 2 = red,  3 = blue,
                         4 = green.
     Column 19-21      = Height  of symbol  in inches.
     Column 22         = Color  of the text.
       i  '
     Columns 23-25     = Height  of letters of text  in inches.
     Columns 26-28     = Angle  at which the text should be printed in.
                         degrees.
     Columns 29-80     = The text of the label (will be printed in
                         Simplex Roman type).
Miscellaneous
     As mentioned previously, SHEAR  is much more complicated  to run
than SHED.  You must complete a  larger number of files and select the
appropriate start card for the  analysis.  The available SHEAR  start cards
are listed in Appendix D.
     Some of the start cards cause the SHEAR program to generate a
concentration ranking from the  center of the box.  These  start  cards
are noted in Appendix D.  If these cards are used,  it is  also  possible
for the user to choose a location other than the center of the  box.
See Figure 3-9 for the appropriate format.
     Figure 3-10 is provided for the programmer who has a good  knowledge
of ECL.  The radial distances for SHEAR can be altered by changing the
runstream.  Figure 3-10 provides the appropriate format.   The  current
defaults for 50 Km run are ten radii at .20,  .50, 1.00, 2.00,  5.00,
10.00, 20.00, 30.00, 40.00 and 50.00 Km.  The decay rate is assumed to
be zero.
                                    3-32

-------
X
T '
•
• CO
f ,
\_J
CO ~2L
Z 0
0 CJ
I— Or
cc m
Q^ CO
1— X
LU LU
C_j _J
0 o_
LJ
j_
O
o
2-
i —
CO
1
__J
or
o
Lu
or
LU
h—
LU
C_)
u_
o
•z.
o
1—
C_)
LU
_1
I i 1
LLJ
CO














•+J
a
a
o
z
o













^j
>o
z
X
a
a

-------

"^ PI
_, f*4
00
 z










O
*-^
1
^
u.











3-34

-------
3-6.  Using Output from other Dispersion Models
     Similar to SHED, SHEAR can be executed using concentration inputs
from other models for the point source portion of the model.   It is cur-
rently capable of using ISCLT results.  The ISCLT output must be created
as tape fi.le output on disk using options when the ISCLT model  is run.
You need then know only the filename(s) to access the concentrations.

Entering Data
     To execute SHEAR using output concentrations, you must enter data
into all the files as usual with one additional  file.  To open  this file,
type:
     (3EDM (chemical )*SHR-ISCLT.
Enter the data as follows (see also Figure 3-11):
     Card 1, Columns 1-6      = Latitude of the plant in degrees, minutes,
                                and seconds (two digits each).
             Columns 7-13     = Longitude of the plant in degrees (three
                                digits), minutes (two digits),  and seconds
                                (two digits).
             Columns 14-23    = Conversion factor.  (This number will  be
                                multiplied by the concentration points to
                                yield a converted concentration.  Since the
                                emission rate is proportional to the con-
                                centration points, this factor  may be  used
                                to analyze various possible emission rates
                                with only one ISCLT run.  Enter 1.0 if you
                                wish the concentration points to remain the
                                same.)
                                    3-35

-------
00
c_

ZD
o





j_
o


o
01





I
2
ง



a
o

w



X

tr
_
s


















-4
C
a
z

UJ

—




g
— g
or •-
ป A





a


Ss
3

- c
a -
























^





•


j

































•
































•



:

















t -








j

































.








:

















-


.












































\





















•
\
i






i



J :

-
i


























i
•









































































.



•
-
•

















! •















































J



j
•
ซ














^


-












.






































;














„


















































•



4
-

















'















































•



:
































-
































•



•_






























•

•
































•



•

































































•



m
'






























.


































•



•

















•















































•



•

































































•





















•












•

•
































•



:

































































•



•
:

















J









































i





-


j
.
-
•

















-












•

-
































•



.

















-












•

-

































j


.
•









^



























































.
•

















-








.

1,
1.
:

-

.


































-
-









J























































1



^
-

















^









1.


! :

-



























j




•



•
H













4
1
4

-












1 :

-

.
                                                                                                i
                                                                                               en
                                                3-36

-------
     Columns 24-25            * filename in which the ISCLT concentration
                                values are listed.
     Columns 56-80            = Point sources (individual  stacks) at the
                                plant to be included.  Each digit represents
        , .                       each stack.  If the stack  is to be included,
                                type 1; if excluded, type  0.  Leaving this
                                part blank includes all  the stacks.
     This card should be completed for each plant and chemical  analyzed.

Running the Program
     There are several  options for running the program depending upon your
needs.  If you have not yet executed a SHEAR run for these sources,  the
XTRACT program must be run.  Hence the start card would  be as follows:
     9 START  START*SHR-ISCLT-A,/(Site ID),, .(filename)
If XTRACT has been run previously for these sources, simply empty the cone.
file as described in section 3-5 and type the start card as shown above
deleting the "-A".
3-7.  Output from SHEAR
     The major output from SHEAR is very similar to SHED.   It includes a
listing of the input data and concentration grid for each  point source.
The output also includes the cummulative exposure summary  similar to that
discussed under SHED.  The overall  summary constitutes the major difference
between SHEAR and SHED output.  SHEAR output presents a  chart similar to
the cummulative exposure summary in lieu of the overall  summary.  This
chart presents levels of hazard (concentration plus unit risk divided by
seventy), the number of people exposed to that hazard or greater and the
annual incidence (people x hazard).
                                    3-37

-------
     In addition to these output,  SHEAR  also reports  the location  of  each
prototype source and each BG/ED used in  the analysis.  The area  and prototype
data output are cummulative for the area analyzed  rather than  presented  for
each individual source.
                                  3-38

-------
References
1.  Anderson, G.E.  and G.VI.  Lundberg,  (May 1983)  "User's  Manual  for SHEAR."
          (Prepared for the  Environmental  Protection  Agency,  Durham,  Morth
          Carolina.) Publication Number SYSAPP-83/124,  Systems Applications,
          Incorporated.
2.  EPA (1977),  "User's Manual  for Single  Source  (CRSTER)  Model,"  U.S.
          Environmental Protection Agency,  U.S. Department of Commerce,  MTIS
          PB-271360.
3.  Hagerty, P.E.  and K.E. Sibbald, (1975)  "Text  Editor User's Guide"
          Computer Science Center, University  of  Maryland,  1975.
4.  Hanna, S.R.  (1978), "Diurnal  Variation of  the Stability Factor in the
          Simple ATDL Urban  Dispersion Model," J.  Air Pollut. Control Assoc.
          Vol. 28,  No. 2, pp.  147-150.
5.  Manna, S.R.  and F.A. Gifford (1973),  "Modeling Urban  Air  Poillution,"
          Atmos. Environ., Vol  7,  po.  131-136.
6.  Martin, O.O.,  and J.A. Tikvart (1968),  "A  General Atmospheric  Diffusion
          Model  for Estimating  the Effects on  Air Quality  of  One or More
          Sources,  "APCA Paper,  presented  at the  61st Annual  APCA  Meeting,
          June 1968, St. Paul,  Minnesota.
7.  Pasquill, F. (1961), "The Estimation of the Dispersion  of Uindborne  Material,"
          Met. Mag., Vol 90, pp 33-49.
8.  Systems Applications,  Incorporated (March  1983) "Hunan  Exposure to
          Atmospheric Concentrations of Selected  Chemicals".  (Prepared  for
          the Environmental  Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park,
          Morth  Carolina.)   Volume I,  Publication  Number  EPA-2/250-1, and
          Volume II, Publication Number EPA-1/250-2.
                                   R-l

-------
9.  Turner, D.B.  (1964),  "A Diffusion  Model  for  an  Urban Area, Atmospheric
          Dispersion Estimates,"  6th Printing  Rev., Government Printing
          Office,  U.S.  Environmental Protection  Agency, Office of Air
          Programs, Publ.  No.  Ap-26, Washington,  D.C.
                                    R-2

-------
                                 Appendix  A
                                 STAR-PICK
     To access STAR-PICK you  must have  access  to the  UNIVAC  corrputer system
(as described in Section 1-3) and be  logged  on (as  described in  Section  2-
4).  Once logged on type the  following:
                         @ADD,PL   HEP-RUN.STAR-PICK
and hit XMIT.  The program will  then  respond with several  strange  lines  of
information.  At the end of the  information  the  computer types:
     Enter the location's latitude (DEC, MIN,  SEC)  and  longitude
     (DEG, MIN, SEC) and the  number of  sites to  list  (default of 20)
     Format (312, 14, 212, 14) or @ EOF  if finished.
You should now type the following in  exactly the format shown below:
                          DDMMSS  DODMMSSNNNN
where:    0 = degrees (latitude in first  group  of number, longitude  in
             the second
         M = minutes
         S = seconds
         N - Digits of the number of  star  stations  you wish  to be
             displayed (default  is 20)
When you hit XMIT, the computer will  respond with the STAR station code number,
the city in which it is located,  its  distance  from  the source longitude and
latitude, and other information.   The listing  will  be in order of closest
distance from the given longitude and latitude.
     After you have obtained  all  the  STAR  station code numbers you need, type:
                                  0EOF
and hit XMIT.  This will exit you from  the program.
                                   A-l

-------
                                 Appendix 3
      Conversion of UTM Coordinates to Latitude/Longitude Coordinates
     To use the program available on the UNI VAC system you must have access
to the UNIVAC system (as described in Section 1-3)  and be logged on (as
described in Section 2-4).   To access the program type the following:
                     @XQT   EOS*RUN.UTM-CALC
and hit XMIT.  You then must enter the UTM coordinates in the following
format:
                  UEEE.E0NNNN.N0ZZ
where:    U = signals program that these are  UTM coordinates
          E = digits of the UTM easting
          N = digits of the UTM northing
          Z - zone of the UTM coordinates
3e careful to place exactly the indicated number of digits and to place the
zeros or spaces in.  Once you hit XMIT, the computer will  respond with  the
latitude and longitude with both decimal  units  and  degrees, minutes, seconds
units.  You are interested in the degrees, minutes, seconds reading for
SHED.
     You may also translate geoditic coordinates to UTM by using the
following format:
                 LDDMMSS000DMMSS
where:     L = signals program that these are geodetic coordinates
           0 = degrees (latitude in the first number; longitude in the  second)
           M = minutes
           S = seconds
Be careful to enter all the digits indicated  and the zero (or space).
Once you hit XMIT, the computer will  respond  with the same format ?'
the conversion of UTM to latitude and longitude.
                                    B-l

-------
     It is also possible  to  translate  longitude and  latitude  represented by

a decimal  figure into UTM coordinates  or units of degrees, minutes and

seconds. To do this,  use  the following format:

                   DXX.XXXX0YYY.YYYY

     where:       0 - signals program  that  these are decimal  coordinates
        t  '
                  X = latitude  digits

                  Y = longitude digits

     Be careful to enter  the digits and zero  (or blank) as shown with the

decimal points in the indicated positions.  The computer will respond with

the same format as with the  previous conversions.
                                    B-2

-------
                                 Appendix C
                   Helpful  Hints With the Maryland Editor

     The Maryland Editor operates In two modes,  the Input mode and the edit
mode.  In the Input mode, every typed character  Is entered into the data
file,  lii the edit mode, the user directs the Editor to change or scan the
text in various ways.   Data can also be input in the edit mode by typing  I,
a space, and the information to be inserted.
     The Editor toggles between edit and input modes by pressing XMIT  after
an SOE (>).  We suggest remaining in the edit mode at all  times in order  to
make use of the editing commands.
     The most used commands are listed below  in  brief summary  form.  Please
refer to reference 2 to obtain a complete explanation of the Editor, a more
extensive list of commands  and a more complete definition.  The numbers 9 and 0
used below are examples, any number may be used.

Maryland Editor Commands:
To move around in a file (Remember that moving the cursor may  move you around
                          on the screen but it does not move you around in  the
                          file.)
     0   -  deletes the line you are on
     0 9 -  deletes the line you are on and the  next eight lines
     0 9 -  prints the next 9 lines on the screen
     P 9 -  prints the line you are on & the  next 3 lines
     N   -  prints the next line on the screen
     T   -  takes you to the top of the file  (this also stores any changes
                                             that have been made in a  backup
                                             data file)
                                    C-l

-------
     LA  -   takes  you  to  the  last  line  of  a  file

     9   -   takes  you  to  line number  9

     -9  -   moves  you  up  9 lines

     +9  -   moves  you  down 9  lines


To Chan'ge a file

     C /old/new/    -   changes the old  (type whatever you want changed) to the
                       new (type what you  want  it changed to) the first time it
                       appears in  the line

     C /old/new/ G  -   changes the old  to  the new everytime  it occurs  in the line

     C /old/new/ 9  -   changes the old  to  the new the first  time it occurs
                       in the line for  the line you are on and the next 8 lines

     R (a space) new -  replace the line you are on with new

     R,9(a  space)  new  -  replace part of line starting in column 9 with new


To Copy a Part of a file

     Ditto 09      -   copies lines 0 to 9 below the line you are on

     BE             -   begins to copy (move  to  first line you want copied
                       before typing)

     CO             -   ends part  to copy (move  to the line below the last
                       line you want copied  before typing)

     AOO            -   copies the  data  defined  by BE and CO  below the
                       line you are on

     CO Filename    -  used in place of CO and  ADO to copy data to a separate
                       file

For Help

     HELPS[Procedure Name]  -  displays information on a particular procedure;
                               use 0EOF to exit

     SC                     -  prints column scale
                                    C-2

-------
                                 Appendix D
                         Summary of SHEAR Run Cards

     This Appendix lists parts of the SHEAR run  card which  can  be  inserted
for slight variations of the SHEAR run.  The general  format for all  the
cards wll 1 be:
     (3START  SASO*START. [part from below],/site ID  ,,,  filename
     The following rules apply to the variations and may help  in selecting
the correct card:
     1.  If TEK is included as part of the card, the  output will be
         plotted on the tektronics plotter.  Otherwise the  output  goes
         to the calcomp plotter.  The "-8" omits the  legends on  the  plots.
     2.  If the point orproto run cards  have no numbers, the analysis
         will be performed out to 20 Km.   A number with  the card indicates
         the distance to which the analysis will  be performed,   (e.g., 50 Km)
     3.  The "-A" commands the XTRACT portion of SHR  to  be  executed.
     4.  The "All" commands all (point, proto and area)  to  be run.
     5.  The "-P" commands the concentration values  to be added  to those
         values already in the CONC. FILE (i.e., XTRACT  must have been
         run previously).  This is similar to running without "-A" except
         that -P also commands the output to be  plotted.
                                    0-1

-------
     The following inserts include as output the concentration levels

surrounding the center of the city or other designated location:
          SHR-ALL                              SHR-POINT/50-KM
          SHR-ALL/TEK                          SHR-POINT-A/50-KM
          SHR-ALL/TEK-B                        SHR-POINT-A/TEK-50-KM
       '   SHR-AREA-A                           SHR-POINT-A/TEK-B-50-KM
          SHR-AREA-A/TEK                       SHR-POINT-P/50-KM
          SHR-AREA-A/TEK-B                     SHR-POINT-P/TEK-50-KM
          SHR-ISCLT                            SHR-POINT-P/TEK-B-50-KM
          SHR-ISCLT-A                          SHR-POINT/80-KM
          SHR-ISCLT-A/TEK                      SHR-POINT-A/80-KM
          SHR-ISCLT-A/TEK-8                    SHR-POINT-A/TEK-80-KM
          SHR-ISCLT-P                          SHR-POINT-A/TEK-B-80-KM
          SHR-ISCLT-P/TEK                      SHR-POINT-P/80-KM
          SHR-ISCLT-P/TEK-B                    SHR-POINT-P/TEK-80-KM
          SHR-POINT                            SHR-POINT-P/TEK-B-80-KM
          SHR-POINT-A                          SHR-POINT/100-KM
          SHR-POINT-A/TEK                      SHR-POINT-A/100-KM
          SHR-POINT-A/TEK-B                    SHR-POINT-A/TEK-100-KM
          SHR-POINT-P                          SHR-POINT-A/TEK-B-100-KM
          SHR-POINT-P/TEK
          SHR-POINT-P/TEK-8
          SHR-PROTO
          SHR-PROTO-A
          SHR-PROTO-A/TEK
          SHR-PROTO-A/TEK-B

     The following inserts do not include the concentration  ranking as output:


           SHR-AREA
           SHR-AREA-P
           SHR-AREA-P/TEK
           SHR-AREA-P/TEK-B
           SHR-PROTO-P
           SHR-PROTO-P/TEK
           SHR-PROTO-P/TEK-B

     To send the results of the SHEAR run to your specific  location to be

printed out from your PC substitute USR for SHR in any of the above start

cards.  The actual printout of the material requires that you type  !?@SEND,

U after the program has finished running (see section 2-5).  To print out

on the  laser printer substitute LAZ for SHR.

                                    n-2

-------
                            Appendix E

BG/ED         Block Group/Enumeration District
COM           C1imatolog1ca1 Dispersion Model
ECU           Executive Control Language
EI'O           Emission Inventory Questionnaires
FIPS          Federal Information Processing System
HAD           Health Assessment Document
HEM           Human Exposure Model
ISCLT         Industrial  Source Complex Long-Term
MARF2         Master Area Reference File 2
NCC           National Climatic Center, National  Computer Center
NEDS          National Emissions data System
NTIS          National Technical Information Service
SAI           Systems Aoplications Incorporated
SHEAR         Systems Applications Human Exposure and Risk
SHED          Systems Applications Human Exposure and Dosage
STAR          Stability Array
U.S.G.S.      United States Geological  Survey
UTM           Universal Transverse Mercator
                               E-l

-------
                                                        INSTRUCTIONS

   1.   REPORT NUMBER
       Insert the EPA report number as it appears on the cover of the publication.

   2.   LEAVE BLANK

   3.   RECIPIENTS ACCESSION NUMBER
       Reserved for use by each report recipient.

       TITLE AND SUBTITLE
       ritle should indicate clearly and briefly the subject coverage of the report, and be displayed prominently. Set subtitle, if used, in srrjaller-
         se or otherwise subordinate it to main title. When a report  is prepared in more than one volume, repeat the primary title, add volume
         mber and include subtitle for the specific title.

   5.   REPORT DATE
       Each report shall carry a date indicating at least month and year.  Indicate  the basis on which it was selected (e.g., date of issue, date of
       •pi. wal, date of preparation, etc.].
               i
   6.   PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE
       Leave blank.

   7.   AUTHOR(S)
       Give name(s) in conventional order (John R. Doe, J. Robert Doe, etc.).  List author's affiliation if it differs from the performing organi
       zation.

   8.   PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER
       Insert if performing organization wishes to assign this number.

   9.   PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
       Give name, street, city, state, and ZIP code.  List no more than two levels of an organizational hirearchy.

   10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER
       Use the program element number under which the report was  prepared.  Subordinate numbers may be included in parentheses.

   11. CONTR ACT/G R ANT NUMBE R
       Insert contract or grant number under which report was prepared.

   12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
       Include ZIP code.

   13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
       Indicate interim final, etc., and if applicable, dates covered.

   14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
       Insert  appropriate code.

   15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
       Enter information not included elsewhere but useful,  such as:  Prepared  in cooperation with, Translation of, Presented at conference of,
       To be published in, Supersedes, Supplements, etc.

   16. ABSTRACT
       Include a brief (200 words or less) factual summary of the most significant information contained in the report.  If the report Contains a
       significant bibliography or literature survey, mention it here.

   17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
       (a) DESCRIPTORS - Select from the Thesaurus of Engineering and Scientific Terms the proper authorized terms that identify the major
       concept of the research and are sufficiently specific and precise to be used as index entries for cataloging.

       (b) IDENTIFIERS AND OPEN-ENDED TERMS - Use identifiers for project names, code names, equipment designators, etc. Use open-
       ended terms written in descriptor form for those subjects for which no descriptor exists.

       (c) COSATI FIELD GROUP - Field and group assignments are to be taken  from the 1965 COSATI Subject Category List.  Since the ma-
       jority of documents are multidisciplinary in nature, the Primary Field/Group assignmentf s) will be specific discipline, area of human
       endeavor, or type of physical object.  The application(s) will be cross-referenced with secondary Field/Group assignments that will follow
       the primary posting(s).

   18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
       Denote reusability to the public or limitation for reasons other than security for example  "Release Unlimited." Cite any availability to
       the public, with address and price.

   19. &20. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
       DO NOT submit classified reports to the National Technical Information service.

   21. NUMBER OF PAGES
       Insert the total number of pages, including this one and unnumbered pages, but exclude distribution list, if any.

   22. PRICE
       Insert the price set by the National Technical Information Service or the Government Printing Office, if known.
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77) (Reverse)

-------
TECHNICAL REPORT DATA
(Please read Instructions on the reverse before completing/
1. REPORT NO, 2.
450/5-86-001
4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
User's Manual for the Human Exposure Model (HEM)
7. AUTHOR(S)
Pollutant Assessment Branch
9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS
Pollutant' Assessment Branch
MD-12
Research Triangle Park, NC 27711
12. SPONSORING AGENCY NAME AND ADDRESS
Environmental Protection Agency
401 M Street, S.W.
Washington, D.C. 20460
3. RECIPIENT'S ACCESSION NO.
5. REPORT DATE
Date of Approval - June 1986
6. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CODE •
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NO.
10. PROGRAM ELEMENT NO.
11. CONTRACT/GRANT NO.
13. TYPE OF REPORT AND PERIOD COVERED
Interim
14. SPONSORING AGENCY CODE
15. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
16. ABSTRACT
       This document describes the  Human  Exposure Model,  furnishes contact personnel
  to establish access to the UNIVAC System,  and provides  step-by-step instructions  for
  operating both the SHED and SHEAR portions of the model.  The manual also lists
  caveats which should be considered when using the HEM and criteria to distinguish
  situations which are appropriately modeled by each portion of HEM.  The intended
  audience ranges from someone with limited  knowledge of  modeling to someone well-
  acquainted with the UNIVAC.
17. KEY WORDS AND DOCUMENT ANALYSIS
a. DESCRIPTORS
Exposure Modeling
18. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
b.lDENTIFIERS/OPEN ENDED TERMS

19. SECURITY CLASS (This Report)
Unlimited
20. SECURITY CLASS (This page)
Unl imi toH
c. COSATl E;ield/Group

21. NO. OF PAGES
22. PRICE
EPA Form 2220-1 (Rev. 4-77)   PREVIOUS EDITION is OBSOLETE

-------