United States
               Environmental Protection
               Agency
               Science Advisory
               Board
               (A-101)
SAB-EC-90-021
September 1990
 &EPA
Reducing Risk:

Setting Priorities And
Strategies For
Environmental Protection
Do not weed. This document
should be retained in the EPA
Region 5 Library Collection.
                                               7l> Printed on Recycled Paper

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 Science Advisory Board, a public advisory group providing
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 baJancedexpertassess
 problems facing the Agency; hence the contents of this report
 do not necessarily represent the views and policies of the "'
                                                      "
   This particular project was conducted at the request of the
 EPA Administrator and addresses a broader range of issues
• of a policy orientation than is usually the case.
                                                                Cover Photo by Steve Delaney

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REDUCING RISK:
SETTING PRIORITIES
AND STRATEGIES FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
The Report of The Science Advisory Board:
Relative Risk Reduction Strategies Committee
to
William K. Reilly
Administrator
United States Environmental Protection Agency
September 1990

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Science Advisory Board
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC 20460
September 25, 1990
Mr. William K.  Reilly
Administrator
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, DC 20640

Dear Mr. Reilly:
  Over a year and a half ago, you asked the Science Advisory Board to review EPA's
1987 report, Unfinished Business: A Comparative Assessment of Environmental Prob-
lems, and then assess and compare different environmental risks in light of the most
recent scientific data. You also asked us to examine strategies for reducing major risks
and to  recommend improved methodologies for assessing and comparing risks and
risk reduction options in the future. This report and its three appendices have  been
prepared in response to your request.
  To undertake this project, the Science Advisory Board created a special Relative
Risk Reduction  Strategies Committee composed of 39 distinguished scientists and
other experts from academia, state government, industry, and public interest groups.
The Committee carefully considered  the reports written by each of its three Sub-
committees, and the findings and recommendations contained in Reducing Risk flow
from the work of the Subcommittees and reflect study, discussion, and synthesis by the
Committee as a whole. This report has been reviewed by the SAB Executive Com-
mittee  and has been formally approved as an SAB document.
  As you are aware, the Science Advisory Board normally reviews scientific reports for
the Agency and evaluates them  on  the  basis of scientific and engineering  data.
However, in this case our review of Unfinished Business  and  our analysis of risk
reduction options have  led us to make findings and recommendations that are  more
policy-oriented  than is usually the case. We have done this at your request.
  This  report, together with its three append ices, suggests steps that the Environmental
Protection Agency should take to  improve its own efforts — and to involve Congress
and the rest of the country in a collective effort — to reduce environmental risk. We
strongly believe that the Agency should take steps to ensure that this nation uses all the
tools at its disposal in an integrated, targeted approach to protecting human health,
welfare, and the ecosystem.
  This  report is only a step along a long road. We encourage you to lead the Agency in
taking  the necessary further steps as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

Raymond Loehr
Chair,  Science Advisory              Jonathan Lash
Board, and Co-Chair, Relative         Co-Chair, Relative  Risk
Risk Reduction  Strategies             Reduction Strategies Committee
Committee

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Contents
Members of the Relative Risk Reduction
  Strategies Committee	iv
Chapter One: Executive Summary	1
  The Concept of Risk	1
  The Traditional Role of the Environmental
    Protection Agency	3
  Unfinished Business	  4
  The Relative Risk Reduction Strategies Committee..  5
  The Ten Recommendations	  6
Chapter Two: Findings	  7
  1. The Importance of Unfinished Business	  7
  2. Problems in Ranking Risks	  8
  3. The Extraordinary Value of Natural Ecosystems..  9
  4. Time, Space, and Risk	  10
  5. The Links Between Risk and Choice	  11
  6. Public Perceptions of Risk	  12
  7. Relatively High-Risk Environmental Problems ...  13
  8. Strategy Options for Reducing
      Environmental Risk	  15
Chapter Three: The Ten Recommendations	   16
  Recommendation 1	   16
  Recommendation 2	   17
  Recommendation 3	   18
  Recommendation 4	   19
  Recommendation 5	   20
  Recommendation 6	   21
  Recommendation 7	   22
  Recommendation 8	   23
  Recommendation 9	   24
  Recommendation 10	   25
                          in

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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Science Advisory Board
401  M Street, S.W.
Washington, DC 20460
Relative Risk Reduction Strategies
  Committee

Steering Committee
Co-Chairmen

Dr. Raymond Loehr
Professor of Civil Engineering
University of Texas
Austin, TX
Dr. Jonathan Lash
Secretary of Natural Resources
  for the State of Vermont
Waterbury, VT

Members
Mr. Alvin Aim
Vice  President
Science Applications International
  Corporation
McLean, VA
Dr. Betsy Ancker-Johnson
Vice  President of the
  Environmental Activities Staff
General Motors Corporation
Warren, MI
Mr. Richard Conway
Senior Corporate Fellow
Union Carbide Corporation
South Charleston, WV
Dr. William Cooper
Chairman of the Zoology Department
Michigan State University
East  Lansing, MI
Dr. Anthony Cortese
Dean of Environmental Programs
Tufts University
Medford, MA
Dr. Paul Deisler
Visiting Executive Professor
University of Houston
Houston, TX
Mr. Fred Hansen
Director of the Department of Environmental
  Quality for the State of Oregon
Portland, OR
Dr. Morton Lippmann
Professor of Environmental Medicine
New York University
Tuxedo, NY
 Dr. Roger McClellan
 President
 The Chemical Industry Institute
   of Toxicology
 Research Triangle Park, NC

*Dr. Norton Nelson
 Director Emeritus of the Institute of
   Environmental Medicine
 New York University
 New York, NY

 Dr. Arthur Upton
 Director of the Institute of
   Environmental Medicine
 New York University
 New York, NY

 Designated Federal Official
 Dr. Donald Barnes
 Staff Director, Science Advisory Board
 U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
 Washington, D.  C.

 Project Staff Coordinator
 Mr.  Frederick Allen
 Science Advisory Board (On loan)
 U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
 Washington, D.  C.

 Editors
 Mr. Tom Super
 Science Advisory Board (On loan)
 U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
 Washington, D.  C.

 Mr. Steve Young
 Science Advisory Board (On loan)
 U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
 Washington, D.  C.

 Support Staff
 Ms. Joanna Foellmer
 Science Advisory Board
 U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
 Washington, D.  C.

 *Deceased
Ecology and Welfare
Subcommittee
Chairman
Dr. William Cooper
Chairman of the Zoology Department
Michigan State University
East Lansing, MI

Members
Dr. Yorum Cohen
Associate Professor of Chemical Engineering
 University of California
  at Los Angeles
Los Angeles, CA
Dr. Steve Eisenreich
Professor of Environmental Engineering
University of Minnesota
Minneapolis, MN

Dr. Mark Harwell
Director of Global Environmental Programs
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY

Dr. Dean Haynes
Professor of Entomology
Michigan State University
East Lansing, MI

Dr. Robert Huggett
Director of the Virginia Institute
  of Marine Studies
College of William  and Mary
Seaford,  VA

Dr. Ronald Olsen
Professor of Microbiology and Associate
   Vice President for Research
University of Michigan Medical School
Ann Arbor, MI

Dr. Dave Reichle
Associate Director of Biomedical
   and Environmental Sciences
Oak Ridge  National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, TN

Dr. June Lindstedt-Siva
Manager of Environmental Science
Atlantic Richfield Company
Los Angeles, CA
                                                               IV

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Designated Federal Official
Mr. Robert Flaak
Science Advisory Board
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C.

Strategic Options Subcommittee
Chairman
Mr. Alvin Aim
Vice President
Science Applications
  International Corporation
McLean, VA

Members

Dr. Betsy Ancker-Johnson
Vice President of Environmental
  Activities Staff
General Motors Corp.
Warren, MI

Dr. Richard Andrews
Professor of Environmental Studies
University of North Carolina
Chapel Hill, NC

Mr. Richard Conway
Senior Corporate Fellow
Union Carbide Corporation
South Charleston, WV
Dr. Anthony  Cortese
Dean of Environmental Programs
Tufts University
Medford, MA

Dr. Roger Kasperson
Professor of Geography
Clark University
Worchester, MA

Dr. Henry Kelly
Senior Associate
Office of Technology Assessment
U.S. Congress
Washington,  D.C.

Dr. Paul R. Portney
Vice President
Resources for the Future
Washington,  D.C.
Mr. William Ryan
Policy Director
National Environmental Law Center
Boston,  MS

Ms. Nancy Seidman
Executive Director
Northeast States for Coordinated
  Air Use Management
Boston,  MA
Dr. Robert Stavins
Assistant Professor of Public Policy
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA
Ms. Marcia Williams
Divisional Vice President
Environmental Policy and Planning
Browning-Ferris Industries
Washington,  D.C.

Designated Federal Officials
Dr. C. Richard Cothern and
   Mrs. Kathleen Conway
Science Advisory Board
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C.

Support Staff
Ms. Darlene Sewell
Science Advisory Board
U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C.

Human Health Subcommittee

Chairman
Dr. Arthur Upton
Director of the Institute of
  Environmental Medicine
New York University
New York, NY

Members
Dr. Julian B. Andelman
Professor of Water Chemistry
University of Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, PA

Dr. Patricia Buffler
Director of Epidemiological Research Unit
University of Texas
Houston, TX

Dr. Paul Deisler
Visiting Executive Professor
University of Houston
Houston, Texas

Dr. Howard Hu
Assistant Professor of
  Occupational Medicine
Brigham & Women's Hospital
Harvard University Medical Center
Boston, MA

Dr. Nancy Kim
Director of the Division of
  Environmental Health Assessment
New York Department of Health
Albany, NY
Dr. Morton Lippmann
Professor of Environmental Medicine
New York University
Tuxedo, NY

Dr. Roger McClellan
President
The Chemical Industry Institute
  of Toxicology
Research Triangle Park, NC

Dr. Arno Motulsky
Professor of Medicine and Genetics
University of Washington School of Medicine
Seattle, WA

Dr. Frederica Perera
Associate Professor of  Public Health
Columbia University
New York, NY

Dr. Jonathan Samet
Professor of Medicine
University of New Mexico
Albuquerque, NM

Dr. Ellen Silbergeld
Senior Scientist
Environmental Defense Fund
Washington, D.C.

Dr. Bernard Weiss
Professor of Toxicology
University of Rochester Medical Center
Rochester, NY

Dr. Hanspeter Witschi
Associate Director of the Toxics Program
University of California
Davis, CA

Designated Federal Official
Mr. Samuel Rondberg
Science Advisory Board
U. S.  Environmental Protection Agency
Washington, D. C.

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Chapter  One—Executive  Summary
The Concept  of Risk
               Over the past 20 years this country has put in place
               extensive and detailed government policies to control
               a number of environmental problems. Smog in
               heavily populated areas, the eutrophication of lakes,
               elevated levels of lead in the blood of millions of
               children, the threat of cancer from exposure to
               pesticide residues in food, and abandoned drums of
               hazardous wastes are a few of the problems that
               have driven the enactment of  more than a dozen
               major Federal laws and the  current public and
               private expenditure of about $100 billion a year to
               protect the environment.
                 Those efforts have led to very real  national
               benefits. The staggering human health and ecological
               problems apparent throughout eastern Europe
               suggest the price  this country would  be paying now
               had it not invested heavily in  pollution controls.
                 Yet despite the demonstrable success of past
               national efforts to protect the environment, many
               national environmental goals still have not been
               attained. Factors like the growth in automobile use
               and common agricultural  practices have caused
               national efforts to protect the environment to be less
               effective than intended.
                 Furthermore, with hindsight it is clear that in
               many cases those efforts have been inconsistent,
               uncoordinated, and thus less effective than they
               could have been.  The fragmentary nature of U.S.
               environmental policy has  been evident in three ways:

               • In Laws. As different environmental problems were
               identified, usually because the adverse effects —
               smog in major cities, lack of aquatic life in stream
               segments, declining numbers  of bald eagles — were
               readily apparent,  new laws  were passed to address
               each new problem.  However,  the tactics and goals of
               the different laws were neither consistent nor
               coordinated, even if the pollutants to be controlled
               were the same. Many laws not passed primarily for
               environmental purposes also had major effects on
               the environment.

               • In Programs. The Environmental Protection Agency
               (EPA) was established as  the primary Federal agency
               responsible for implementing the nation's
               environmental laws. EPA then evolved an
               administrative structure wherein each program was
               primarily responsible for implementing specific laws.
               Consequently, the efforts  of the different programs
rarely were coordinated, even if they were
attempting to control different aspects of the same
environmental problem. This problem is
compounded by the fact that EPA is not the only
agency whose activities affect the environment.

• In Tools. The primary tools used to protect the
environment have been controls designed to capture
pollutants before they escape from smokestacks,
tailpipes, or  sewer outfalls, and technologies
designed to clean up or destroy pollutants after they
have been discharged into the environment. These
so-called "end-of-pipe" controls and remediation
technologies almost always have been applied
because of Federal, State, or local legal requirements.

  For a number of reasons, this kind of fragmented
approach to protecting the environment will not be
as successful in the future as it has been in the past.
In this country the most obvious controls already
have been applied to the  most obvious problems.  Yet
complex and less obvious environmental problems
remain, and  the aggregate cost of controlling those
problems one-by-one is rising.
  Moreover, this country — and the rest of the
world — are facing emerging environmental
problems of unprecedented scope. Population
growth and industrial expansion worldwide are
straining global ecosystems. Never before in history
have human activities threatened to change
atmospheric  chemistry to such an extent that global
climate patterns were altered.
  Given the diversity, complexity, and scope of the
environmental problems of concern today,  it is
critically important that U.S. environmental policy
evolves in several fundamental ways. Essentially,
national policy affecting the environment must
become more integrated and more focused on
opportunities for environmental improvement than it
has been in the past.
  The environment is an interrelated whole, and
society's environmental protection efforts should be
integrated as well. Integration in this case means that
government agencies should assess  the range of
environmental problems of concern  and then target
protective efforts  at the problems that seem to be the
most serious. It means that society should use all  the
tools — regulatory and non-regulatory alike — that
are available  to protect the environment. It means
that controlling the end of the pipe where pollutants
enter the environment, or remediating problems
caused by pollutants after they have entered the
environment, is not sufficient. Rather,

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waste-generating activities have to be modified to
minimize the waste or to prevent the waste from
being generated at all. Most of all, integration is
critically important because significant sources of
environmental degradation are embedded in typical
day-to-day personal and professional activities, the
cumulative effects of which can become serious
problems. Thus protecting the environment
effectively in the future will require a more broadly
conceived strategic approach, one that involves the
cooperative efforts or all segments of society.
  One tool that can help foster the evolution of an
integrated and  targeted national environmental
policy is the concept of environmental risk.Each
environmental problem poses some possibility of
harm to human health, the ecology, the economic
system, or the quality of human life. That is, each
problem poses  some environmental risk. Risk
assessment is the process by which the form,
dimension, and characteristics of that risk are
estimated, and  risk management is the process by
which the risk is reduced.
  The concept of environmental risk, together with
its related terminology and analytical methodologies,
helps people discuss disparate environmental
problems with a common language.  It allows many
environmental problems to be measured and
compared in common terms, and it allows different
risk reduction options to be evaluated from  a
common basis.  Thus the concept of environmental
risk can help the nation develop environmental
policies in a consistent and systematic way.
  Scientists have made some progress in developing
quantitative measures for use in comparing different
risks to human health. Given sufficient data, such
comparisons are now possible within limits.
Although current ability to assess and quantify
ecological risks is  not as well developed, an increased
capacity for comparing different kinds of risks more
systematically would help determine which problems
are most serious and deserving of the  most urgent
attention. That capacity would be even more valuable
as the number and seriousness of environmental
problems competing for attention and  resources
increase.
  An improved ability to compare risks in common
terms would have another value  as well: it would
help society choose more wisely among the range of
policy options available for reducing risks.  There  are
a number of ways to reduce the automobile
emissions that contribute to urban smog; there are a
number of ways to decrease human exposure to lead.
The evaluation of relative risks can help identify the
relative efficiency and effectiveness of  different risk
reduction options.
  There are heavy costs involved if society fails to set
environmental priorities based on risk. If finite
resources are expended on lower-priority problems at
the expense of higher-priority risks, then society will
face needlessly high risks. If priorities  are established
based on the  greatest opportunities to reduce risk,
total risk will be reduced in a more efficient way,
lessening threats to both public health and local and
global ecosystems.

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The Traditional Role
of  the Environmental
Protection Agency
               For the past 20 years, EPA has been basically a
               "reactive" agency. As environmental problems were
               identified, the public conveyed its concern to
               Congress, and Congress passed laws to try to solve
               the problems within some, often well-defined,
               timeframe. EPA then implemented the laws using
               the resources — budget and staff — allocated by
               Congress.
                 Consequently, EPA has seen its mission largely as
               managing the reduction of pollution and, in
               particular, only that pollution that is defined in the
               laws that it administers. EPA's internal programmatic
               structure mirrors the environmental legislation that it
               is required to implement. Moreover, the tools EPA
               traditionally has used to reduce pollution have been
               limited, in general, to the emissions controls it could
               force polluters to apply through regulatory  action.
                 This reactive mode, although understandable when
               seen in its historical context, has limited the
               efficiency and effectiveness of EPA's environmental
protection efforts. Because of EPA's tendency to react
to environmental problems defined in specific
environmental laws, the Agency has made little
effort to compare the relative seriousness of different
problems. Moreover, the Agency has made very little
effort to anticipate environmental problems or to take
preemptive actions that reduce the  likelihood of an
environmental problem occurring.
  Because most of EPA's program offices have been
responsible for implementing specific laws, they have
tended to view environmental problems separately;
each program office has been concerned primarily
with those problems that it has been mandated to
remediate, and questions of relative seriousness or
urgency generally have remained unasked.
Consequently, at EPA there has been little correlation
between the relative resources dedicated to different
environmental problems and the relative risks posed
by those problems.

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Unfinished Business
                The Environmental Protection Agency squarely faced
                the question of relative risk for the first time when it
                established an Agency task force to assess and
                compare the risks associated with a range of
                environmental problems. In 1986 and 1987, about 75
                senior career managers and staff compared the
                relative risks posed by 31 environmental problems
                within four broad categories of risk: 1) human cancer
                risk, 2) human non-cancer health risk, 3) ecological
                risk, and 4) welfare risk. The task force limited  its
                comparison to those risks that remain after
                currently-required controls have been applied (i.e.,
                residual risks). The results of this effort were
                presented in Unfinished Business: A  Comparative
                Assessment of Environmental Problems.
                  Unfinished Business was a landmark study. For the
                first time, the many environmental problems of
                concern to EPA were compared to each other in a
                non-programmatic context. Moreover, the report
                explicitly pointed out the disparity between residual
                risk and resource allocation at EPA. The problems
                that the authors judged to pose the most serious
risks were not necessarily the problems that
Congress and EPA had targeted for the most
aggressive action.
  However, the report did find a correlation between
EPA's programmatic priorities and the apparent
public perceptions of risk. That is, Congress and the
Agency were paying the most attention to
environmental problems that the general public
believed posed the greatest risks.
  The authors of Unfinished Business recognized that
their risk rankings, while based on the judgments of
experienced professionals,  were  limited, since they
were based on incomplete data and novel risk
comparison techniques. But the value of the report,
then and now, rests not so much on the accuracy of
the rankings but on the fact that EPA had begun to
see the long-term public policy importance of
understanding relative risks.  In short, Unfinished
Business was yet another sign that the nation as a
whole, and EPA in particular, could not continue
"business-as-usual" in the face of the environmental
risks of the 1990s and beyond.

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The Relative  Risk
Reduction Strategies
Committee
                Shortly after he took office early in 1989, EPA
                Administrator William K.  Reilly asked the Science
                Advisory Board (SAB) to review EPA's 1987 report
                on relative environmental risk, Unfinished Business,
                evaluate its findings,  and  develop strategic options
                for reducing risk. In response to that request, the
                SAB formed a special committee, the Relative Risk
                Reduction Strategies Committee (RRRSC), which in
                turn was divided into three Subcommittees: the
                Ecology and Welfare Subcommittee, the Human
                Health Subcommittee, and the Strategic Options
                Subcommittee.
                  The Relative Risk Reduction Strategies Committee
                was co-chaired by Dr. Raymond C. Loehr, chairman
                of the SAB and professor at the University of Texas,
                and Mr. Jonathan Lash, Secretary of the State of
                Vermont's Agency of  Natural Resources. The Ecology
                and Welfare Subcommittee was chaired by Dr.
                William Cooper of Michigan State University; the
                Human Health Subcommittee was chaired by Dr.
                Arthur Upton of the Institute of Environmental
                Medicine, New York University Medical Center; and
                the Strategic Options  Subcommittee was chaired by
                Mr. Alvin Aim of Science Applications International
                Corporation.
                  The 39 members of  the RRRSC and its
                Subcommittees were nationally-recognized scientists,
                engineers, and  managers with broad experience in
                addressing environmental and health issues. Their
                names and professional affiliations are listed at the
                front of this overview report.
                  Through its combined efforts the RRRSC attempted
                to achieve four objectives:

                1. Critically review Unfinished Business, reflecting any
                significant new information that bears on the
                evaluation of risks associated with specific
                environmental problems.

                2. To the extent possible, merge the evaluations of 1)
                cancer and non-cancer risks and 2) ecological and
                welfare risks.

                3. Provide optional strategies for reducing the major
                environmental risks.
4. Develop a long-term strategy for improving the
methodology for assessing and ranking
environmental risks and for assessing the alternative
strategies that can reduce risks.

  In particular, the Ecology and Welfare
Subcommittee and the Human Health Subcommittee
were charged with reviewing and updating the risk
findings from Unfinished Business. Those two
Subcommittees were to provide, to the extent
possible, a  single aggregate ranking of the risks that
each Subcommittee assessed, and recommend a
long-term strategy for improving the methodology
for assessing such risks. The Strategic Options
Subcommittee was charged with 1) identifying
strategy options for reducing residual environmental
risks, and 2) developing and demonstrating analytical
methodologies for identifying and  selecting risk
reduction options.
  The RRRSC began planning its work in the spring
of 1989, and it held its first meeting in September
1989. In all, the Committee and its three
Subcommittees held twelve public  meetings and
three working sessions.
  The RRRSC has conducted a lengthy review of the
data and methodologies that support risk
assessment, comparison, and reduction today. This
review of environmental risk has led to several
conclusions about the need for and value of
comparative risk assessments and their implications
for the national environmental agenda.
  This  overview report highlights the most important
findings and recommendations from the three
Subcommittee reports, along with insights derived
from discussions among the Committee members
after they reviewed the Subcommittee reports. The
full reports of the three Subcommittees are included
as appendices to this report (see inside back cover)
and should be referred  to for important additional
information and detailed support for the contents of
this overview report.
  The RRRSC recognizes that this overview report
and its appendices contain policy-oriented findings
and recommendations that are outside the normal
scope of SAB  purview.  But in this case the EPA
Administrator explicitly asked  the SAB to review,
from a  technical and scientific perspective, the
optional strategies available for reducing risk. Thus
this report includes recommendations on approaches
to risk management and on the future direction of
national environmental  policy. However, nothing in
this report or its appendices should be construed as
an SAB recommendation for a  specific policy option
to be used to reduce a specific environmental risk.

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The  Ten
Recommendations
                1. EPA should target its environmental protection
                efforts on the basis of opportunities for the greatest
                risk reduction. Since this country already has taken
                the most obvious actions to address the most obvious
                environmental problems, EPA needs to set priorities
                for future actions so the Agency takes advantage of
                the best opportunities for reducing the most  serious
                remaining risks.

                2. EPA should attach as much importance to
                reducing ecological risk as it does to reducing
                human health risk. Because productive natural
                ecosystems are essential to human health and to
                sustainable, long-term economic growth, and because
                they are intrinsically valuable in their own right, EPA
                should be as concerned about protecting ecosystems
                as it is about protecting human health.

                3. EPA should improve the data and analytical
                methodologies that support the assessment,
                comparison, and reduction of different
                environmental risks. Although setting priorities for
                national environmental protection efforts always will
                involve subjective judgments and uncertainty, EPA
                should work continually to improve the scientifc data
                and analytical methodologies that underpin those
                judgments and help reduce their uncertainty.

                4. EPA should reflect risk-based priorities in its
                strategic planning processes. The Agency's
                long-range plans should be driven not so much  by
                past risk reduction efforts or by existing
                programmatic structures, but by ongoing
                assessments of remaining environmental risks, the
                explicit comparison of those risks, and the analysis of
                opportunities available for reducing risks.

                5. EPA should reflect risk-based priorities in its
                budget process. Although EPA's budget priorities are
                determined to a large extent by the different
                environmental laws that the Agency implements, it
                should use whatever discretion it has to focus budget
                resources at those environmental problems that  pose
                the most serious risks.
6. EPA — and the nation as a whole — should make
greater use of all the tools available to reduce risk.
Although the nation has had substantial success in
reducing environmental risks through the use of
government-mandated end-of-pipe controls, the
extent and complexity of future risks will necessitate
the use of a much broader array of tools, including
market incentives and information.

7. EPA should emphasize pollution prevention as
the preferred option for reducing risk. By
encouraging actions that prevent pollution from
being generated in  the first place, EPA will help
reduce the costs, intermedia transfers of pollution,
and residual risks so often associated with
end-of-pipe controls.

8. EPA should increase its efforts to integrate
environmental considerations into broader aspects of
public policy in as fundamental a manner as are
economic concerns. Other  Federal agencies often
affect the quality of the environment, e.g., through
the implementation of tax, energy, agricultural, and
international policy, and EPA should work to ensure
that environmental considerations are integrated,
where appropriate, into the policy deliberations of
such agencies.

9. EPA should work to improve public
understanding of environmental risks and train a
professional workforce to help reduce them. The
improved environmental literacy of the general
public, together with an expanded and better-trained
technical workforce, will be essential to the nation's
success at reducing environmental risks in the future.


10. EPA should develop improved analytical
methods to value natural resources and to account
for long-term environmental effects  in its economit
analyses. Because traditional methods of  economic
analysis tend to undervalue ecological resources and
fail to treat adequately questions of intergenerational
equity, EPA should develop and implement
innovative approaches to economic analysis that will
address these shortcomings.

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 Chapter  Two—Findings
1. The Importance  of
Unfinished Business
H-3.Q? H-fc§
!-SJ|f 1HMJ
                With the publication of Unfinished Business early in
                1987, EPA took a bold and much-needed step: it
                compared the relative residual risks posed by a range
                of different environmental problems, and thus
                suggested an important shift in national
                environmental policy. With that report EPA took the
                first step toward relative risk reduction; that is, a
                policy that attempts to match Agency and societal
                resources to risk.
                 To produce Unfinished Business  EPA brought
                together staff from all its program offices for the
                explicit purpose of comparing the relative risks of
                different environmental problems, regardless of
                individual programmatic priorities or responsibilities.
                To do that, the EPA staff had to assess
                environmental risk in a context broader than
                programmatic structure or legislated activities.  In
                short, they had to put aside considerations of
                bureaucratic "turf" in order to rank the problems
                they believed most needed society's attention.  EPA
                should be applauded for the courage and foresight to
                undertake a  project like Unfinished Business.
                 Unfinished Business presents useful, preliminary
                information for comparing environmental problems,
                although in some cases its rankings are a matter of
                judgment and cannot be supported fully  by existing
                data. The Ecology and Welfare Subcommittee
                questioned the welfare rankings,  because it disagreed
                with some of the  economic assumptions underlying
                those rankings and because of a general lack of
                relevant economic data. The Human Health
                Subcommittee questioned the accuracy of any
                ranking of human health risks at  this time, given the
                limited human exposure and chronic toxicity data
currently available. Both Subcommittees observed
that the 31 problems assessed were not derived from
a systematic classification of all environmental
problems, and both suggested alternative and more
comprehensive approaches to classification that
would facilitate a more coherent ranking.
  Most of the 31 environmental problems assessed in
Unfinished Business are so broad, and include so many
toxic and non-toxic agents, that its ranking of
problems cannot be evaluated with rigor or
confidence. Additionally, the authors of Unfinished
Business intentionally defined environmental
problems to correspond to legislation and
programmatic organization. As a result, they
attempted to compare heterogenous mixtures of
pollutants (like air pollutants and drinking water
pollutants) to pollutant sources (like oil spills and
mining waste) to receptors (like consumers and
workers). Yet without a consistent basis for
comparison, such comparisons are tenuous at best.
  Moreover, because the authors chose to limit the
environmental problems they  compared, Unfinished
Business does not address problems like the loss of
habitat and the decline in genetic diversity, even
though such problems pose very serious risks, and
EPA and other agencies may be able to take actions
to mitigate them. A meaningful ranking of relative
environmental risks must include all such risks,
whether or  not laws have been passed or programs
set up to control them.
  A final shortcoming for the  authors of Unfinished
Business was the availability of data. Good data to
evaluate risks simply did not — and  in many cases
still do not — exist. The EPA staff understandably
used their professional judgment to fill the data
gaps. The Subcommittee reports appended to this
overview report document in more detail the
members' judgments as to the relative strength and
weakness of the data used to support the risk
rankings in Unfinished Business.
   The findings and recommendations described in this overview report have been derived mainly from the reports prepared
   by the tturee Subcommittees of the Relative Risk Reduction Strategies Committee, those reports, which are included as
   appendices to this report, contain detailed information that support and more fully explain the findings and
   recomrfttniiitfons. Such information can be found by referring to the sections of the different appendices that are listed at
   the be|$roBig of each finding and recommendation. In the listed cros&referencesj
   • "W      to the Report of the Ecology and Welfare Subcommittee;
   • TH" refers to the Report of the Human Health Subcommittee; and,
   * "S" refers to the Report of the Strategic Options Subcommittee.

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2.  Problems  in
Ranking  Risks
                 As long as there are large gaps in key data sets,
  B-3.% E*SL2    efforts to evaluate risk on a consistent, rigorous basis
  H«3«0; H-&Q    or to define optimum risk reduction strategies
                 necessarily will be incomplete, and the results will be
                 uncertain. For example, data on human exposure
                 and on the toxicity of many pollutants are seriously
                 deficient. In particular, the lack of pertinent exposure
                 data makes it extremely difficult to assess human
                 health risks.
                   Moreover, great uncertainty often is associated
                 with the data that do exist. Exposure and toxic
                 response models, the numbers used to quantify
                 risks, and variations in individual susceptibility to
                 risks are often highly uncertain. Without more and
                 better data, conclusions about relative risk will be
                 tenuous and will depend in large measure on
                 professional judgment.
                   In addition to the lack of data, methodological
                 inadequacies also impede the assessment and
                 comparison of risk. At this time EPA does not have
                 an effective,  consistent way of identifying
                 environmental problems in a manner  that neither
                 fragments nor aggregates sources of risk to an extent
                 that renders  comparisons untenable. EPA's current
                 framework of statutory mandates and program
                 structure helps to maintain artificial distinctions
                 among environmental problems, and those
                 distinctions are conducive neither to sound
                 evaluation of relative risk nor to selection of  the most
                 effective actions to reduce risk.
                   In particular, the methodologies currently  used to
                 estimate the  benefits of risk reduction activities  are
                 inadequate and inappropriate. For example,  a
                 methodology that presumes the future value of an
                 ecological resource necessarily must be less than its
present value will not be a useful analytical tool for
sustaining economic development over the long
term. The standard practice of discounting future
resource values is inappropriate, and it results in
policies that lead to the depletion of irreplaceable
natural resources.
  Reliance on "willingness to pay" and similar
techniques commonly used in economic analyses has
distorted current understanding of the value of
natural resources. While some people may not care
about wetlands and assign no value  to their
existence, such areas still provide valuable ecosystem
services to this and future generations. While few
people are likely to care about and be willing to pay
for plankton and fungi, such organisms play a critical
role in sustaining economically valuable ecosystems.
  An additional difficulty entailed in any attempt to
compare and rank environmental risks is the
inevitable value judgments that  must be made.  For
example, are health risks posed  to the aged more or
less serious than health risks posed to infants? Are
risks of cancer more or less serious than threats to
reproductive processes? Comparing the risks posed
to human populations with the risks posed to
ecosystems may be even more difficult. It seems clear
that subjective values always will — and should —
influence the ranking of relative environmental  risks,
no matter how sophisticated the technical and
analytical tools become.

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3.  The  Extraordinary
Value of Natural
Ecosystems
                Natural ecosystems like forests, wetlands, and
    E-5.2       oceans are extraordinarily valuable. Those
                ecosystems contain economically valuable natural
                resources that feed, clothe, and house the human
                race. They act as sinks that, to a certain extent,
                absorb and neutralize the pollutants generated by
                human activity. Although natural ecosystems — and
                the linkages among them — are not completely
                understood, there is no doubt that over time the
                quality of human life declines as the quality of
                natural ecosystems declines.
                  The value of natural ecosystems is not limited to
                their immediate utility to humans. They have an
                intrinsic, moral value that must be measured in its
                own terms and protected for its own sake.
                  However, over the past 20 years and especially
                over the past decade,  EPA has paid too little
                attention to natural ecosystems. The Agency has
                considered the protection of public health to be its
                primary mission, and  it has been less concerned
                about risks posed to ecosystems. The Agency's
                relative lack of concern reflects society's views as
                expressed in environmental legislation; ecological
                degradation probably is seen as a less serious
                problem because it is often subtle, long-term, and
                cumulative. But for whatever reason, this imbalance
                is a manifest, if inadvertent, part of current national
                environmental policy.
  EPA's response to human health risks as compared
to ecological risks is inappropriate, because, in the
real world, there is little distinction between the two.
Over the long term, ecological degradation either
directly or indirectly degrades human health and the
economy. For example, as the extent and quality of
saltwater estuaries decline, both human health and
local economies can suffer. As soils erode, forests,
farmlands, and waterways can become less
productive. And while the loss of species may not be
noticed immediately, over time the decline in genetic
diversity has implications for the future health of the
human race.
  In short, human health and welfare ultimately rely
upon the life support systems and natural resources
provided by healthy ecosystems. Moreover, human
beings  are part of an interconnected and
interdependent global ecosystem, and past
experience has shown that change in one part of the
system often affects other  parts in unexpected ways.
National efforts to evaluate relative environmental
risks should recognize  the vital links between human
life and natural ecosystems. Up to this point, they
have not.

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4.  Time,  Space,
and Risk
                 While the data needed to support firm rankings of
   B"4Ji| -&¥•&    risk were found to be limited, the RRRSC identified a
         $"i>»2    number of important factors that must be considered
                 in any assessment or ranking of the risk associated
                 with a particular environmental problem. Those
                 factors include the number of people and other
                 organisms  exposed to the risk, the likelihood of the
                 environmental problem actually occurring among
                 those exposed, and the severity of the effects,
                 including the economic losses and other damages
                 involved, if it  does  occur.
                   In addition, two other aspects of potential
                 environmental problems — i.e., their temporal and
                 spatial dimensions — also must be given
                 considerable weight in any analysis of relative
                 environmental risk. Consideration of time and space
                 can help guide judgments about relative risks in the
                 absence of complete data.
                   The temporal dimension of an environmental
                 problem is the length of time over which the
                 problem is caused,  recognized, and mitigated. For
                 some environmental problems the temporal
                 dimension can be very long. For example, the
                 chronic human health effects of air or water pollution
                 may become apparent only after many years of
                 exposure. It may take decades of human activity to
                 begin to change the global climate, and more decades
                 may pass before the effects of human activity on the
                 global climate are clearly understood. Some
                 pollutants  can persist in the environment — and thus
                 pose environmental risks — indefinitely. And it may
                 take decades or even centuries before depleted
                 species of wildlife recover from the loss  of habitat, if
                 recovery is possible at all.
                   The spatial dimension of an environmental
                 problem is the extent of the geographical area that is
                 affected by it.  Some environmental problems, like
                 elevated levels of radon, may be limited to the
                 basements of some homes, while  problems like
                 stratospheric ozone depletion can affect  the entire
                 globe. And some global problems, like the loss of
                 genetic diversity, can be caused by human activities
                 in relatively limited geographical areas.
  The time and space dimensions of environmental
problems should weigh heavily in any comparison of
relative environmental risks. For example, if
long-lived pollutants like DDT and PCBs can become
concentrated in the food chain and pose a threat to
future as well as present human and ecological
health, those future risks should be taken into
account when relative risks are compared. Similarly,
if global climate change or stratospheric ozone
depletion has the potential to affect the  health and/or
economic well-being of virtually everyone on earth,
now and in the future, the extent and duration of the
risk should suggest a relatively high-risk ranking.
  Ecosystems are generally resilient to short-term
insults. For example, oil spills and water pollution
usually cause only temporary ecological changes;
nature has a substantial capacity for healing itself.
However, some changes are either permanent or
semipermanent. Destroying wetlands, altering
natural water flows (as in the Everglades), global
warming,  and stratospheric ozone depletion can
cause irreversible and, in some cases, widespread
problems.
  In fact, some long-term and widespread
environmental problems should be considered
relatively high-risk even if the data on which the risk
assessment is based are somewhat incomplete and
uncertain. Some risks are potentially so  serious, and
the time for recovery so long, that risk reduction
actions should be viewed as a kind of insurance
premium and initiated in the face of incomplete and
uncertain data. The risks entailed in postponing
action can be greater than the risks entailed in taking
inefficient or unnecessary action.  Moreover,
preemptive actions are especially  justifiable if — like
the energy conservation efforts that would slow the
accumulation of greenhouse gases — they lead to
unrelated but immediate and substantial benefits,
such as improved ambient air quality and reduced
U.S. dependence on imported oil.
                                                         10

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5. The  Links Between
Risk and Choice
                It is sometimes tempting to think simplistically about
                tne sources of environmental risk as being a
                particular industry, a particular product, or a
                particular pollutant. Conceptually, smokestacks can
                be controlled, products modified, and pollutants
                banned with relative ease.
                  But the sources of environmental risk are much
                more diverse and complicated than that. In fact, the
                sources of risk often are to be found in the
                day-to-day choices made by individuals,
                communities, and businesses. And many kinds of
                environmental risk will not be reduced substantially,
                especially over the long term, if past patterns of
                individual, community,  and business choices do not
                change in light of the relative risks posed by those
                choices.
                  In a sense, the very existence of the human race
                inevitably poses some level of environmental risk.
                People necessarily generate wastes, both as
                individuals and through aggregate economic
                activities. People necessarily destroy or infringe upon
                some natural habitats when they construct their own.
                Individuals either increase or lessen environmental
                risk depending on which consumer products they
                buy, how they design their homes, and whether they
                walk or drive to work. Society affects environmental
                risk at the local level through building codes and
                zoning laws and at the national level through tax,
                energy, and agricultural policies.
                  But all these activities involve choice,  and the
                environmental risks posed by many human activities
                can be reduced sharply if different choices are made.
                So one of the most important questions facing society
                is how to influence and  shape individual,
                community, and business choices so that
                environmental risks are  reduced.
  Choice is influenced by a number of factors,
including education and ethics. Some people may
choose to purchase certain consumer products
because of a genuine concern about the
environmental effects of their personal buying
patterns. Similarly, some businesses may redesign
production processes to eliminate pollution because
of a desire to be perceived as corporate "good
citizens."
  Economic incentives are  also important tools for
inducing particular kinds of choices. When the price
of energy rises, consumers are likely to buy more
fuel-efficient vehicles and weatherize their homes,
while plant managers have an added incentive to
purchase more energy-efficient equipment. Full
pricing of municipal services can give people an
incentive to recycle their household wastes and
conserve water.
  Laws and regulations, of course, are very effective
at shaping individual and social choices. Local
zoning laws can change the pattern of economic
development  in a community and limit where homes
can be built. Local, State, and Federal procurement
regulations can have a substantial effect on the
development  of markets for recycled products.
  Projected future growth in population and
economic activity could add enormously to the
environmental risks faced in this country and  around
the world. But growth and reductions in
environmental risk are not necessarily incompatible,
if past patterns of individual, community,  and
business choice can change. In national efforts to
assess, compare, and control relative risks, the
importance of those choices — and the policy  options
available to influence those choices — should not be
overlooked.
                                                         11

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6.  Public Perceptions
of Risk
                Public opinion polls taken over the past several years
    S-1,4       confirm that people are more worried about
                environmental problems now than they were 20
                years ago when the first wave of environmental
                concern led to major changes in national policy. But
                the areas of greatest concern to the public today are
                not necessarily those problems identified in
                Unfinished Business. In other words, the remaining
                and emerging environmental risks considered most
                serious by the general public today are different from
                those considered most serious by the technical
                professionals charged with reducing  environmental
                risk.
                  This dichotomy between public perceptions and
                professional understanding of environmental risk
                presents an enormous challenge to a pluralistic,
                democratic country. A Federal agency like EPA must
                be sensitive to public concerns about environmental
                problems. In fact, since public concerns tend to drive
                national legislation, Federal environmental laws are
                more reflective of public perceptions of risk than of
                scientific understanding of risk.  Consequently, EPA's
                budget and staff resources tend to be directed at
                those environmental problems perceived to be most
                serious by the general public.
                  Yet if national resources are to be used most
                effectively to promote environmental quality, then
                such resources must be aimed at those
                environmental problems that pose the greatest risks.
The ability to match resources to risks will measure
the success of national policies to protect the
environment.
  One obvious way to bridge this dichotomy would
be to improve the public's understanding of the
scientific and technical aspects of environmental risk
while improving scientists' understanding of the
basis of public concern. Public perceptions of
environmental risk tend to incorporate deeply-held
subjective values, like justice and equity, that,
although difficult to quantify, reflect important
elements of the  quality of life that government is
bound to protect. Moreover, since the scientific
understanding of any environmental problem is
likely to evolve as the science improves, and since
environmental policy necessarily embodies subjective
values, scientific understanding  should not be the
sole determinant of environmental policy.
  Therefore, EPA must be prepared to listen
carefully to the public's perceptions of risk.
Moreover, EPA  should balance those perceptions
with current scientific understanding as the Agency
develops long-term risk reduction strategies.
                                                         12

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 7.  Relatively High-Risk
Environmental Problems
i-4.0; B-6.0;
      H»7.0
                The RRRSC not only reviewed the risk rankings
                contained in Unfinished Business, but it also identified
                several environmental problems as relatively
                high-risk, based on available scientific data and
                technical understanding. This effort  was challenging
                for a number of reasons. Ecological,  health, and
                welfare risks can be manifested in a  number of
                different endpoints; it is difficult to compare risks
                with widely different time scales and spatial
                dimensions; because of data gaps and methodological
                inadequacies, it is rarely feasible to quantify total
                risk. In other words, the RRRSC faced many of the
same hurdles that faced the authors of Unfinished
Business when they developed their risk rankings.
  Consequently, the RRRSC did not rank risks in the
same manner as Unfinished Business did. The Ecology
and Welfare Subcommittee grouped environmental
problems into high-, medium-, and low-risk areas;
the Human Health Subcommittee identified
environmental problem areas where existing data
indicated that risks could be relatively high.
Additional data might identify additional high-risk
problems. Both Subcommittees developed their
assessments in light of the latest scientific and
technical  knowledge and  using their best professional
judgment, and both caution that their assessments
are based on incomplete and often inadequate
knowledge about 1) the extent of human and
ecological exposures to pollutants and 2)
exposure-response relationships.
     Risks To Hit-Natural Ecology And Human Weliare
     The Ecology and Welfare SuboMnmittee identifies! areas
     of relatively Mfh, medium, and low risk, despite gaps
     in the relevant gjjafr* 'fae four environmental problems
     that it cpnsiiejjei to be isiativdf high-risk am likely to
     foe considered Mgh-rtsk even after data and analytical
     methodologiei ate improved, because the geographic
     scale of all font is vtejr'large (regional to global), and
     becaute the MBSC Uttt could be required to mitigate all
     four is very long, tnd some       are iweveimfe
       the Beologf    Wltfare Subcommittee did not limit
     tfteir assessment t» {ftp envjeonaaenta! problems listed
     in Unfinished         Hie order of problems listed
     within each of the fwte different risk groups shown
     below is not meant fo imply a ranking.
     Relatively !%*•*»ft Problems
     * Habitat Aitef wtw»s iftd Destruction
        Humans are       and destroying natural
        habitats in pwiy       woAhw,de> e.g., by the
        draining and degradation of wetlands, soil
        erosion, and Ae deforestation of tropical and
        temperate »in forests,
     * Species Extinction and Overall Loss of Biological
       Diversity
       Many human activities are causing; species
       extinction iiwi depletion and the overall loss of
       biological divinity, including the genetic diversity
       of sufviviKg species.
                                                           « Stratospheric GsKone Depletion
                                                              Because        of chloroflttorocarbons and other
                                                              ozorte-^ieptetiRg     are thinning the earth's
                                                              stratospJieiie wops lay«r,. more ultraviolet
                                                              radiation is teaching the earth's surface, thus
                                                              stressing many lands of organisms.
                                                           * Global CMmate Change
                                                              Emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and other
                                                              greenhouse gases are altering the chemistry of the
                                                              atmosphere, tht%*teni«g to change the global climate.

                                                           Relatively Medium-Risk Problems
                                                           * HerWeMps/Pestieides
                                                           • Toxics, Nutrients, Biochemical Oxygen Demand, and
                                                             Turbidity in Surface Waters
                                                           » Acid Deposition
                                                           * Airborne Toxics
                                                           Relatively Low-Risk Problems
                                                           • Oil
                                                           * Groundwater Pollution
                                                           • Radiortucldes   •
                                                           » Acid Runoff to Surface Waters
                                                           * Thermal Pollution

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 human 1
                                    firmly by the
                      wete for. oiler health probleaw.
'                           that the development of  .
                        ni«se complete data could
 lead to a different approach to the assessment of human
                         an approach would involve
 iK                  «nt«roffttental toxicants that
                            and Major risk reduction
 ;                     seujrees eonit a range of
                      J» which     populations
~. i^.exp4ieft:^p«;li«|t.t^-''- --^	*-—*-
 __,_,,, p^.r.,.,. —,-, -r— - —_„,_,- Others, such as
                             by a variety of
                        inhalation, inhalation of
             tfgsl^ lpi;;teg«ttOB of dtist deposited
 om              ,§• others att .iisposrtant
                      tp compounds such as
•                    antf s«CH^f«lc  •
• 'hjii^iidWis'iBt foBtE to At atmosphere over
     s .aiseas'of'North America.
                   to CheinkaJs in Industry and
                                                       exposures can      cancer and a
                                                                                  (
                                                                 df
                                                       of                         -
                                                       •                          •
                                                    • fGlutton;
                                                      Ittfl^i%^fltop|«ritf »ay fee exposed to      and
                                                      its               MI''weil as to, Bnany airtwrte ,
                                                      coabwittan          litclod|»g        dioxide
                                                      and en*4»rtTi(iWtet'jiotacco smote. Indooi
                                                      exposures to toxic agents in consumer products
                                                      (e.g», $dM&&, ^stiddes, fonawldehydl:} also can
                                                      caw* caaeer     a: raftge of nom»«^icet health
                                                      el^rts. Due !io' A® largt- popufafiBii ;dinterty
                                                      ' exposed,to"-ft, wtpHi^ar *f             ei uroch are
                                                                                  . wJatively high
                                                                  porting Water
                                                                      w ctelwerfed at the tap^ may
                                                        contain agents such a* lead, chiofofonoa, and
                                                                     '
            a»d tgrtailtip al worifcers are exposed to
   > -party ios^i.fttta^noes ift tite worlcplaee, Such
                                                      • sach poliitam,ts intinkinfcwAte1 can cause cancer
                                                      and a' run§et of nonn^cerjhfiaith effects. This
                                                      piro'blWR'pesf s felsti^ely high human health risks,
                                                      . beetpse Jtigt- popaitlfcwjs are exposed dfcecfly to
                                                      Carious       some of which ate hi#% to»c,

                                                      Other prtbleni aisas also involve potentially
                                                    significant expotiue ol large populations to toxic
                                                    dwnieaJs; *;g .„ pesttejde residues on tood and toxic
                                                    chemicals in consumer products. However, the data
                                                    "bases t» support      concerns are not as robust as
                                                    they are for the feur areas Isted above,
                                                 14

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8. Strategy Options  for
Reducing Environmental  Risk
                In addition to reviewing the findings of Unfinished
     S-44       Business, the RRRSC also reviewed a broad spectrum
                of policy options available for reducing major
                environmental risks. The Strategic Options
                Subcommittee examined a series of environmental
                problems and identified a range of risk reduction
                options for each of them. Thirteen problems were
                included in the analysis, nine of which had been
                ranked high in Unfinished Business.
                                                  The Subcommittee identified six generic risk
                                                reduction tools that should be considered for any
                                                problem area (see box on the following page), and
                                                generated 60 specific examples of options that could
                                                be applied to 13 environmental problems. The
                                                Subcommittee also developed a series of criteria that
                                                can be used to select from among the various risk
                                                reduction options available. These criteria include the
                                                magnitude of risk reduction to be achieved, the
                                                likelihood of achieving that risk reduction, the costs
                                                involved, the ease and speed of implementation and
                                                enforcement, the degree of intermedia transfer of
                                                risk, and overall cost-effectiveness.
                                                                                                and
     Ijieseftftitt
                "^.fwpt*
                                              mi
                                               .. •
                                                                                              _
                                                                                                   could
                                                                                                 «
                   of
                     s to'

     global warming
     potertive,
     contaminated sediments.
of fw
                       f im
     In ttitty     :Hsk pedactfen can be         jty
     providing information to producers, consumers, and/or
     State and local governments. For example, new home
     bsjNMB                with tht
        Sj and                              tot
            d             wfamrixm to    item •
                   '
     * Atete
     A key to ftdudfijg estwtownetittil risk m to ensure that
                           face flit Mj,     -  '
                                                                                tar

                                                                                  pea
                                                                                      laws.
                                                                                                  .  Due to
                                             Agencies and Notiom
                                         rf
                                     2)
       aujti^ $)                     
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Chapter  Three—Recommendations
1.  EPA Should Target Its Environmental Protection
     Efforts On The Basis Of Opportunities For The
     Greatest Risk Reduction
               Seen in its historical context, the ad hoc development
     S-4-2      of U.S. national environmental policy is
               understandable. Yet 20 years of experience in
               developing and implementing environmental policy
               has demonstrated that not all environmental
               problems are equally serious, and not all remediation
               efforts are equally urgent. The nation cannot do
               everything at once. In national efforts to protect the
               environment, the most obvious steps have been
               taken to reduce the most obvious risks.  Now
               environmental priorities must be set.
                 In order to set priorities for reducing
               environmental risks, EPA must weigh the relative
               risks posed by different environmental problems,
               determine if there are cost-effective opportunities for
               reducing those risks, and then identify the most
               cost-effective risk reduction options. This effort
               should build  on the  analytical process begun in
               Unfinished Business and in this report and its
               appendices.
                 However, the SAB recognizes that risk analyses
               always will be imperfect tools. No matter how much
               the data and  methodologies are improved, EPA's
               decisions to direct specific actions at specific risks
               will entail a large measure of subjective judgment.
               Yet the SAB believes that relative risk data and risk
               assessment techniques should inform that judgment
               as much as possible. In short, EPA programs should
               be shaped and guided by the principle of relative risk
               reduction, and all available risk data and the most
               advanced risk assessment and comparison
methodologies should be incorporated explicitly into
the Agency's decisionmaking process.
  In order to implement a risk-based action agenda,
EPA must take several essential steps.  It must
articulate to its own employees and to  the general
public the fact that it intends to set priorities for
action based on opportunities for relative risk
reduction. Next the Agency must establish an explicit
process for incorporating those considerations into its
long-term planning and budget processes. Finally,
the Agency must act on those priorities.
  In practice, of course, EPA's activities are defined
by the laws that it is required to  administer. EPA
also has a responsibility to respond to  public
concerns about an environmental problem, no matter
how limited the risk may seem to be. However,EPA
should not limit its risk comparison efforts to those
environmental problems it is required by law to
mitigate. The risks posed by other problems and
potential problems — like the loss of biological
diversity — must be compared and ranked as well.
  Simply stated, EPA is responsible for protecting
the environment, not just for implementing
environmental law. Thus the Agency should assess
and compare the universe of environmental risks and
then take the initiative to address the most serious
risks, whether or not Agency action is  required
specifically by law.
                                                       16

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2.  EPA Should Attach As Much Importance To
     Reducing Ecological Risk As It Does To Reducing
     Human Health Risk
               Largely because of the requirements of the laws it
    E-4.0      administers, EPA has tended to pay far more
               attention to protecting human health and welfare
               than to protecting the ecology. Indeed, during the
               1980s EPA's agenda was dominated by concerns
               about the effects of toxic chemicals on human health.
                 Yet from the perspective of risk there are strong
               linkages between human health and the health of
               wetlands, forests, oceans, and estuaries. Most
               human activities that pose significant ecological  risks
               — for example,  the effects of agricultural activities on
               wetlands — pose direct or indirect human health
               risks as well. Likewise, actions taken to reduce
               pollution and thus improve human health usually
               improve various aspects of ecological quality.
                 These very close linkages between human health
               and ecological health should be reflected in national
               environmental policy. When EPA compares the  risks
               posed by different environmental problems in order
               to set priorities for Agency action, the risks posed to
               ecological systems must be an important part of the
               equation.
                 This recommendation is not meant to imply the
               relative value of human life vis a vis plant or animal
life. Rather, it is meant to reflect in national
environmental policy the very strong ties between all
forms of life on this planet. Ecological systems like
the atmosphere, oceans, and wetlands have a limited
capacity for absorbing the environmental degradation
caused by human activities. After that capacity is
exceeded, it is only a matter of time before those
ecosystems begin  to deteriorate  and human health
and welfare begin to suffer.
  In short, beyond their importance for protecting
plant and animal life and preserving biodiversity,
healthy ecosystems are a prerequisite to healthy
humans and prosperous economies. Although
ecological damage may not become apparent for
years, society should not be blind to the fact that
damage is occurring and the losses will be felt, sooner
or later, by humans. Moreover,  when species and
habitat are depleted, ecological health may recover
only with great difficulty, if recovery is possible at
all.
  Thus EPA's risk-based priorities for action should
reflect an appropriate balance between ecological,
human health, and welfare concerns. Furthermore,
the Agency should communicate to the general
public a clear message that it considers ecological
risks to be just as  serious as human health and
welfare risks, because  of the inherent value of
ecological systems and their strong links to human
health.
                                                         17

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3.  EPA Should Improve The Data And Analytical
     Methodologies That Support The Assessment,
     Comparison, And Reduction Of Different
     Environmental Risks
     •
The ability to assess environmental risks, compare
them, and select strategies to reduce them all depend
on the availability and sophistication of the relevant
data and analytical tools. The weakness in Unfinished
Business stems in large part from the weakness of the
data and analytical tools used, and those weaknesses
still exist. If EPA's efforts to assess,  compare, and
reduce risks are to improve in the future, the data
and analytical tools must improve as well.
  For example, in order to generate the
exposure-dose data needed to assess human  health
risks more reliably, EPA should monitor chemicals in
the environment and in human tissues much more
systematically. Biomarkers and other
newly-developed measures of exposure should be
used. To this end, EPA should expand its research
and data collection efforts in this area, and cooperate
with other Federal agencies  to facilitate development
of the requisite data bases.
  EPA's health-related data  collection efforts  should
not be limited to those areas where  risks to human
health already are recognized. EPA  also needs to
develop an ability to predict the potential future risks
of emerging problems (e.g.,  low-level exposures to
electromagnetic  fields).  Therefore, EPA should
establish a formal risk-anticipation mechanism,
including an in-house expert committee, peer
oversight,  and long-range research on emerging
problems.
  Improved methodologies for comparing different
human health risks also are  needed. A new approach
to ranking risks, one that uses a matrix of data on
sources, exposures,  agents, and endpoints, is needed
to help identify  specific agents and mixtures  for
quantitative risk assessments.  Risk rankings should
be based on risk assessments for specific toxic
agents, or definable mixtures of agents, and  on the
total human  exposure to such agents.  When  possible,
risks should be assigned to persons in target or more
sensitive populations, as well as to the population as
a whole.
  For assessment of non-cancer human health risks,
the Agency should try to establish a risk assessment
framework consistent with that used for carcinogens.
Furthermore, although a large number of non-cancer
health endpoints exist, there is as yet no easy way to
combine assessments of cancer and non-cancer risks
into a single, overall health evaluation. The Agency
should explore procedures to achieve this end.
  Improved  data bases and methodologies for
assessing ecological and welfare risks also are
needed. For  example, although ecological data are
plentiful, they have not been synthesized into
formats useful for assessing ecological risk.
Moreover, a  substantial amount of ecological data are
collected and maintained by other Federal
government  organizations. EPA should aggregate
ecological data that are collected government-wide,
and systematically synthesize those data into formats
useful for ecological risk assessment.
  Finally, all three RRRSC Subcommittees took initial
steps  in developing methodologies that would allow
a more rigorous, scientifically defensible comparison
and merging of environmental risks and alternative
strategies for reducing them. Those methodologies
are described in detail in the appendices to  this
report. EPA  should invest in both in-house  and
extramural research to help improve those
methodologies.  Unfinished Business  took the  first steps
to compare environmental risk; the appendices to
this RRRSC report describe more sophisticated
approaches.  EPA should ensure that these ideas are
developed and tested in the years ahead, so that
relative risk reduction can be used  as an effective,
continually evolving tool in the development of
national environmental policy.
                                                         18

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4.  EPA Should Reflect Risk-Based Priorities In Its
     Strategic Planning Processes
                The Agency needs to build on and improve the kinds
                of analyses carried out by the authors of Unfinished
                Business and by the members of the RRRSC in the
                preparation of this report and its appendices.
                Ongoing assessments of different environmental
                risks and the policy options for reducing them
                should be carried out within EPA, but the Agency
                should consider soliciting the input of external
                groups and individuals with expertise and interest in
                this effort.  The results  of such analyses — the
                identification of relatively high-risk environmental
                problems and the most promising strategies for
                reducing them — then need to be incorporated
                explicitly into the Agency's strategic planning
                processes.
                  Recognizing that scientific understanding and
                public concerns are constantly evolving, EPA should
                update its risk-based priorities periodically. A major
                review of remaining and  emerging environmental
                risks facing the nation  — and the globe — should be
                conducted  every several years in order to reflect
                advances in scientific knowledge and progress in
                mitigating environmental problems over time.
                Specific strategies for reducing specific environmental
                risks should be reviewed and updated more  often.
                  Risk reduction strategies always should be driven
                by the environmental problems to be solved, not by
                the structure of existing government programs.  Thus
                it is useful  to analyze problems from different
                perspectives — for example, as pollutants (e.g., toxic
                air pollutants, groundwater pollutants), as sources
                (e.g., automobiles, powerplants),  in terms of their
                effects (e.g., increased  respiratory diseases, habitat
                destruction),  and in terms of the economic activity
                causing or  affecting them (e.g., energy use,
                transportation systems, residential and commercial
                development). Looking at environmental problems
                from different perspectives will suggest different
types of strategic solutions, and EPA should develop
plans for specific risk reduction programs only after
undertaking this kind of comprehensive,
multi-faceted analysis.
  The Agency should subject individual strategy
options to disciplined analysis to determine how
much risk reduction each will achieve. Information
on cost, timing,  degree of certainty of results, and
ancillary benefits or risks should be included in such
analyses. The decision matrix developed by the
Strategic Options Subcommittee of the RRRSC
represents one approach for evaluating alternative
strategies against a set of defined criteria. After
promising risk reduction strategies have been
defined, they should be built into EPA's program
plans in a coordinated and explicit way.
  Since State governments generally implement
national environmental protection policies at the local
level, State agencies need to incorporate relative risk
assessments into their strategic  planning, too. EPA
should encourage and support State efforts to assess
relative  risks and the various policy options available
to reduce them,  especially since local action is the
most effective response to many environmental risks.
EPA support should include financial resources,
technical assistance, and information, and such
support should be focused on those problems and
geographical areas where particular risks are likely to
be reduced the most, and in the most cost-effective
ways.
                                                           19

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5.  EPA Should Reflect Risk-Based Priorities In Its
     Budget Process
                Historically, EPA's budgets have reflected the
     S-4*i      resources necessary to establish and implement the
                regulatory programs mandated by Congress, with
                virtually no focus on relative risk and cost-effective
                opportunities for reducing relative risks. Accordingly,
                over time there has been little correlation between
                the relative risk of a particular environmental
                problem and the EPA budget resources dedicated to
                reducing it.
                  Spending by EPA is not — and should not be —
                the sole measure of society's response to a particular
                environmental problem. In fact, other Federal
                agencies, State and local governments, private
                companies, and individual families will have to play
                significant roles in reducing the risks posed by some
                environmental problems.  However, among those
                environmental problems that clearly necessitate an
                EPA response, the Agency should shift its budget
                priorities toward those problems posing the greatest
                risks.
                  Although this change in budget priorities is a
                necessary component of future national
                environmental policy, such a change need not occur
                overnight. Small but consistent changes would
                accomplish the same objectives, and such changes
                should be made as the Agency's understanding of
                relative risks improves. Moreover, changes in EPA's
                budget priorities need not result in allocations exactly
                proportional to risk and risk reduction goals, since
                some risks  can be reduced at relatively low cost.
  The Agency should initiate a specific process for
incorporating relative risk considerations into its
budgetary deliberations. For example, at the
beginning of the budget cycle the Administrator or
Deputy Administrator of EPA could provide clear
guidance to the program offices regarding relatively
high-risk problems that appear to be relatively
underfunded.  A second review to ensure that
relatively high-risk problems are  given higher budget
priority could be completed just before the budget is
sent to the Office of Management and Budget. But
whatever kind of process is instituted, it is critically
important that a specific EPA administrative process
relates budgetary allocations explicitly to risk.
  Finally,  the Agency should take the lead in
ensuring that overall national efforts to reduce risks
are driven by cost-effective risk reduction strategies.
As activities by organizations outside EPA — at the
Federal, State, and local levels — become
increasingly important to the nation's risk reduction
efforts, EPA should guide, inform, and help
coordinate those efforts. As the Federal agency with
the most up-to-date,  comprehensive understanding
of relative environmental risks and the options
available for reducing them,  EPA needs to play an
active role in helping target national efforts  to reduce
environmental risks.
                                                           20

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6.  EPA—And The Nation As A Whole—Should
     Make Greater Use Of All The Tools Available
     To Reduce Risk
               The main tool that this nation has used to reduce
    S-4,4       environmental risk has been government-mandated
               end-of-pipe controls and remediation or clean-up
               technologies. Such "command-and-control" methods
               for reducing risk have been very effective in
               controlling some kinds of pollution, especially from
               large, centralized sources. However, to control the
               risks posed by widely dispersed sources like
               naturally-occurring radon and some consumer
               products, and to control the risks that remain after
               the imposition of end-of-pipe technologies,
               command-and-control approaches may not be  as
               effective. Consequently, other kinds of risk reduction
               tools that appear to have great promise must be used
               more extensively.
                 The RRRSC examined a variety of such tools,
               including research and development, conventional
               regulations, enforcement, and international
               cooperative activities. Two general tools that appear
               to hold particular promise are market incentives and
               the provision of information.
                 The forces of the marketplace can be a powerful
               tool for changing individual and institutional
               behavior and thus reducing some kinds of
               environmental risks. Whenever appropriate and
               feasible, EPA should use and/or support them.
               Marketable permits, deposit-refund systems, and
               pollution charges are types of market incentives that
               could — and  should — play much larger roles in this
               nation's efforts to reduce environmental risk.
                 EPA is only one of several Federal agencies with
               authority in these areas, but EPA is the Federal
               agency primarily responsible for protecting the
               environment in the broadest sense. Consequently,
               EPA should take the lead in  fostering more
               widespread use of market forces to reduce
               environmental risk.
  Information also can serve as a way to reduce risk
without the use of command-and-control regulations.
For example,  the information requirements of the
Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know
Act of 1986 have encouraged companies to take
voluntary actions to reduce their inventories and
emissions of toxic substances. The exchange of
information also can facilitate the wider use of
cost-effective  pollution prevention strategies.
Information provided through environmental audits
can help companies improve their risk-reduction
efforts. EPA should expand its efforts to provide
information and to facilitate information-sharing that
helps individuals, businesses, and communities
reduce environmental risk.
  This recommendation is  not meant to imply that
command-and-control regulations have outlived their
usefulness. For some environmental problems,
conventional  regulatory approaches hold substantial
promise for further reductions in risk. Such
approaches include end-of-pipe performance
standards, design standards, use restrictions, and
product specifications. Together with strict
enforcement of existing environmental regulations,
these approaches give pollution sources a  strong
incentive to look for cheaper, innovative ways to
achieve the same environmental goals. Thus the
RRRSC supports the continued use and strict
enforcement of existing regulations.
  However, the long-term  reduction of
environmental risks will require EPA, and the nation
as a whole, to use a far broader range of tools. EPA
should dedicate budget and personnel resources to
develop, test, and fairly evaluate all such tools. The
Agency also should make more of an effort to inform
and encourage other elements of society —
businesses, schools, State and local governments,
etc.— to use this broad range of tools.
                                                         21

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7.  EPA Should Emphasize Pollution Prevention As
     The Preferred Option For Reducing Risk
                The costs of cleaning up and disposing of pollutants
                after they have been generated can be enormous.
                The costs of the Superfund program, the planned
                cleanup of the Department of Energy's nuclear
                weapons plants, and the cancellation and disposal of
                chemicals already in use are painful examples of that
                lesson.
                  Thus end-of-pipe controls and waste disposal
                should be the last line of environmental defense, not
                the front line. Preventing pollution at the source —
                through the redesign of production processes, the
                substitution of less toxic production materials, the
                screening of new chemicals and technologies before
                they are introduced  into commerce, energy and
                water conservation,  the development of
                less-polluting transportation systems and farming
                practices, etc. — is usually a  far cheaper, more
                effective way to reduce environmental risk, especially
                over the long term.
                  More widespread  use of pollution prevention
                techniques  holds enormous environmental and
                economic promise for a number of reasons. For one
                thing, some environmental problems — like global
                warming — simply cannot be remediated in any
                practical way using only end-of-pipe controls.
                  Pollution prevention also minimizes environmental
                problems that are caused through a variety of
                exposures.  For example, substituting a non-toxic for
                a toxic agent reduces exposures to workers
                producing and using the agent at the same time as it
                reduces exposures through surface water,
                groundwater, and the air.
                  Pollution prevention also is preferable to
                end-of-pipe controls that often  cause environmental
                problems of their own.  Air pollutants captured in
                industrial smokestacks and deposited in landfills can
                contribute to groundwater pollution; stripping toxic
                chemicals out of groundwater,  and combusting  solid
                and hazardous wastes,  can contribute to air
pollution. Pollution prevention techniques are
especially promising because they do not move
pollutants from one environmental medium to
another, as is often the case with end-of-pipe
controls.  Rather, the pollutants are not generated in
the first place.
  The advantages of pollution prevention also are
becoming apparent as the nation tries to address
some of the environmental risks that remain after
end-of-pipe controls are applied.  Ongoing growth in
the amount of wastes generated in this country is
quickly overcoming the ability of landfills and
incinerators to absorb it, especially since landfills are
no longer an option for hazardous waste disposal.
Society must find more ways to reduce the amount
of waste requiring disposal. Similarly, as the nation
attempts to reduce the environmental risks still
posed by urban smog more than  a decade after
automobile emissions were reduced sharply by
end-of-pipe technology, it is clear that preventing
pollution — e.g., through mass transit,  car pools,
and the combustion of alternative fuels — is a
promising long-term option.
  In addition,  pollution prevention techniques often
bring substantial economic benefits to the sources
that use them. Businesses can avoid the costs of
end-of-pipe controls,  waste cleanup and disposal,
and liability by preventing pollution instead of
controlling it. Moreover, some pollution prevention
techniques, like using energy more efficiently and
recycling process materials, can pay for themselves
quite apart from environmental considerations. One
reason that Japan and Western Europe are
formidable economic competitors is that they use
energy and raw materials so efficiently. To compete
in the global marketplace, American businesses also
must use them more  efficiently.

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8.  EPA Should Increase Its Efforts To Integrate
     Environmental Considerations Into Broader
     Aspects Of Public Policy In As Fundamental A
     Manner As Are Economic Concerns
                For the past 20 years EPA has been the focal point of
  S-4 ttIMW     ^e Federal government's environmental protection
                efforts. As such, EPA was largely responsible for
                defining, implementing, and enforcing the national
                command-and-control regulations that have  been
                remarkably successful in reducing certain kinds of
                pollution, especially from large, centralized facilities.
                  But reducing environmental risk in the future also
                will entail the control of small,  widely dispersed
                sources of pollution through the use of a wide range
                of regulatory and non-regulatory techniques.
                Consequently, EPA must have  a broader perspective.
                In solving environmental problems like habitat
                destruction, indoor air pollution, non-point source
                water pollution, and  solid waste disposal, EPA will
                be only one of a number of Federal and state
                agencies with important roles to play. Thus  EPA
                should do more to foster the cooperation among
                government entities that will be essential to  the
                national effort to reduce environmental risks in the
                1990s and beyond.
                  EPA should play an important role in ensuring
                that environmental considerations are a part of the
                policy  framework at other Federal agencies whose
                activities affect environmental quality directly or
                indirectly. Changing  Federal policies in sectors not
                traditionally linked with environmental protection
                could provide cost-effective  environmental benefits
                that equal or exceed those that  can be achieved
                through more traditional means.
                  Environmental considerations should be an integral
                part of national policies that affect energy use,
                agriculture, taxation,  transportation,  housing, and
                foreign relations. For example:
• Energy conservation measures, if given high
national priority, could improve the U.S. balance of
payments, lower future world oil prices, reduce
threats to national security, and help reduce
environmental risks locally, regionally, and globally.

• Federal agricultural policies and programs could be
revised to reduce or eliminate existing incentives for
environmentally unsound farming practices, and to
directly support efforts by farmers to control soil
erosion and chemical runoff and to make greater use
of low-input,  sustainable farming practices.

• Tax policies could promote investments in new
plants and equipment that are less polluting and
more energy efficient.

• Housing and commercial development policies
could be  used to control development in ecologically
fragile areas.

  Because EPA is not the only Federal agency whose
actions affect  the environment, it must work to
ensure that environmental considerations are
incorporated into policy discussions across the
Federal government. Environmental considerations
should be as fundamental in this context as economic
concerns  are.  In order to facilitate the
government-wide integration of environmental
policy, the EPA Administrator should encourage the
President to create a cross-government forum where
such integration would be explicitly considered and
carried out.
                                                         23

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9.  EPA Should Work To Improve Public
     Understanding Of Environmental Risks And Train
     A Professional Workforce To Help Reduce Them
                In a democracy the support of individual citizens is
        * o      important to the success of any national endeavor. In
                the national effort to reduce environmental risk, such
                understanding and support is essential, because both
                the causes of and solutions to environmental
                problems are often linked to individual and societal
                choice. Consequently, EPA must expand its efforts to
                educate the public in general and the professional
                workforce in particular, both in terms of what causes
                environmental risks and what reduces them.
                  For example, EPA should work to reduce the gap
                between public perceptions of risk and the scientific
                understanding of risk. In many cases,  public
                perception and scientific understanding are quite
                different, if only because scientists have ready access
                to information that the public does not. It is
                important that EPA increase its efforts to share risk
                information with the public, because in the long run
                the public will have to  approve EPA's  risk-based
                action agenda. Better public awareness of relative
                environmental risks will help the nation allocate its
                resources to maximize risk reduction.
                  At the same time the Agency must be attuned to
                the concerns of people who are closest to the
                real-world health, ecological, and welfare risks posed
                by different environmental problems. An  engaged
                public often can be helpful in gathering information
                that supports  the technical analysis of risk.
                Moreover, because they experience those risks
                first-hand, the public should have a substantial voice
                in establishing risk-reduction priorities.
                  Thus EPA should include broad public
                participation in its efforts to rank environmental
                risks. Such  participation will help educate the public
about the technical aspects of environmental risks,
and it will help educate the government about the
subjective values that the public attaches to such
risks.  The result should be broader national support
for risk-reduction policies that necesarily must be
predicated on imperfect and evolving scientific
understanding and subjective public opinion.
  EPA also should take several specific steps to
develop and sustain the nation's scientific capability
and workforce. For example, the Agency should
provide technical and financial assistance to
universities to help them incorporate environmental
subject matter into their curricula and to train the
next generation of environmental scientists and
engineers.
  In this regard, EPA also should support graduate
and post-graduate training programs in the relevant
scientific disciplines, and nurture the participation of
the scientific community in  interdisciplinary research.
The nation is facing a shortage of environmental
scientists and engineers needed to cope with
environmental problems today and in the future.
Moreover, professionals today need  continuing
education and training to help them  understand the
complex control technologies and pollution
prevention strategies needed to reduce
environmental risks more effectively.
  EPA also should expand its support for
environmental training programs targeted at Federal,
State, and local officials. Most environmental officials
have been trained in a subset of environmental
problems, such as air pollution, water pollution, or
waste disposal. But they have not been trained to
assess and respond to environmental problems in an
integrated and comprehensive way.  Moreover, few
have been taught to anticipate and prevent pollution
from occurring or to utilize risk reduction tools
beyond command-and-control regulations. This
narrow focus is not very effective in the face of the
intermedia environmental problems  that have
emerged over the past two decades  and that are
projected for the future.
                                                          24

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10.  EPA Should Develop Improved Methods To
       Value Natural Resources And To Account For
       Long-Term  Environmental Effects In Its
       Economic Analyses
     1-5.2
Traditional forms of economic analysis, as applied to
the costs and benefits of economic development and
environmental protection, have systematically
undervalued natural resources. This practice
threatens the world's natural resources — like
estuaries and rainforests — without which the lives
of future generations will be impoverished. The
failure of current analytic techniques to estimate
properly either the full benefits of natural ecosystems
or the full costs of activities that degrade them too
often has allowed the justification of long-term
ecological degradation for the sake of present gain.
  A private company invests its profits to maintain
and increase its capital value. When a company
invests to maintain facilities, expand production, buy
new equipment, and improve the quality of services
provided, it protects its long-term health.
  In a similar manner, this planet requires certain
investments in order to maintain itself as a healthy
ecosystem and to ensure sustainable,  long-term
economic growth. Future generations depend on
those investments, and if they are not made,  then
civilization  will put itself out of business.
  It is necessary and appropriate to conduct
economic analyses of human activities that affect the
environment. But it is essential that such analyses
properly value the long-term,  sustained productivity
of natural ecosystems. For that reason, EPA should
undertake a broad national effort to develop
analytical techniques that more adequately assess the
real long-term value of ecosystems,  and that support
the identification of the most cost-effective ways to
reduce risks that threaten long-term, sustained
productivity.
  There are a variety of problems with present
methods. Many of the problems stem from the fact
that public goods, such as clean air, are unpriced in
markets and thus are easily — and often —
undervalued in economic analyses. National
accounting schemes typically characterize revenues
generated by activities that deplete or degrade
environmental resources as  "income" while failing to
consider the resulting depletion of society's
environmental capital assets.
  When economists do try to value ecosystems, they
are hobbled by the limitations of the available tools.
For instance, the "willingness to pay" method can
significantly undervalue aspects of ecosystems with
which people are not familiar. Some  of the
assumptions underlying discounting procedures  do
not hold when environmental effects occur over long
time periods; thus they assign little value to some
very important long-term effects. Multipliers that are
applied differently to environmental values than  they
are to more traditionally measured economic values
(e.g., employment) may further distort the results of
economic analyses.
  As a first step EPA should commission a study
that surveys the ideas of ecologists, economists,
social scientists, and other experts from inside and
outside the Agency. The study should attempt to
develop a way of incorporating ecological
investments into a concept of sustainable growth.
  Environmental economics is a controversial,
complex, and rapidly-evolving field. EPA should take
the lead in developing methods of analysis that will
give fair consideration to investments that will
protect the natural resource base for future
generations.
                                                         25

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This overview report has been derived mainly
from three detailed reports prepared by the
three Subcommittees of the Relative Risk
Reduction Strategies Committee. Those
reports are:

• Appendix A: Report of the Ecology and Welfare
Subcommittee(EPA-SAV-EC-9Q-021A).
  Includes a critique of the ecological and
welfare rankings in Unfinished Business.
Suggests an alternative approach to defining
environmental problems, ranking them from
an ecological perspective. Identifies a need to
more accurately reflect ecological concerns in
economic/welfare considerations.

• Appendix B:  Report of the Human Health
Subcommittee(EPA-SAV-EC-9Q-Q21B).
  Includes a critique of the cancer and
non-cancer rankings in Unfinished Business.
Provides specific suggestions for
methodological improvements for analyzing
and evaluating  relative risks of environmental
problems, including a possible approach for
merging cancer and non-cancer concerns.

• Appendix C:  Report of the Strategic Options
Subcommittee(EPA-SAB-EC-90-021C).
  Describes the wide range of "tools"
available for addressing environmental
problems. Includes 60 examples of such
strategic options applied to 13 different
environmental problems. Provides a set of
criteria for selecting from among the  options
in any  given case.
  Copies of the three appendices to this
report can be obtained by writing:
  The Science Advisory Board (A-101)
  U. S. Environmental Protection Agency
  401 M Street,  S. W.
  Washington,  D. C. 20460
                26

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U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Region 5, Library (PL- 12J)
77 West Jackson Boulevard, 12th Flocf
Chicago, IL  60604-3590

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